Tokyo – Q2/2021
MARKETINMINUTES

Residential Leasing

Savills Research

Savills team
Please contact
us for further
information
JAPAN
Christian Mancini
CEO, Asia Paciﬁc(Ex Greater China)+81 3 6777 5150
cmancini@savills.co.jp

RESEARCH
Tetsuya Kaneko
Managing Director,
Research & Consultancy,Japan+81 3 6777 5192
tkaneko@savills.co.jp
Yoshihiro Kanno
Manager, Research &Consultancy, Japan+81 3 6777 5275
ykanno@savills.co.jp

Rents correct again amid market headwinds
The peak moving season brought fewer new residents to the 23W thanprevious years.
• Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) saw a mild decline of
2.0% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 4.0% year-on-year(YoY) to JPY3,964 per sq m in Q2/2021.
• Average mid-market rents in the central ﬁve wards (C5W)
have continued their descent and are currently at JPY4,670
per sq m – a fall of 1.6% QoQ and 5.8% YoY.
• The C5W premium has marginally increased to 17.6%, up 0.2
percentage points (ppts) from the last quarter.
• At the ward level, only a few areas posted positive growth ona quarterly basis. Here, Toshima in the Inner North marked
the strongest growth this quarter with a modest gain of
0.9%. On an annual basis, Katsushika took the crown, withrents rising by 5.7%.
• In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band
have seen a correction this quarter and currently remain the least
expensive size band in a complete reversal of the historic trend.
• The average occupancy rate in the 23W decreased by 0.7ppts
to 95.4%. The C5W, meanwhile, also saw a decline with therate contracting by 0.9ppts to 94.2%.
• Notable demographic changes have taken place in Tokyo
since the pandemic began, with the 23W population seeing
savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/a material decline. In contrast, western regions have seen arise in their populations.

“After a temporary rise in
the previous quarter, rents
have again declined acrossthe 23W. Unsurprisingly, thedemographic changes seen inTokyo since the onset of thepandemic have dented thecapital’s appeal, with areas on
the outskirts being the prime
beneﬁciaries of this change.
With the end of the pandemic
in sight, however, it remains
to be seen if this will be longlasting.”
SAVILLS RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY

1

Simon Smith
Regional Head of
Research & Consultancy,
Asia Paciﬁc+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.com.hk
Savills plc
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Residential Leasing

MAP 1: Tokyo’s 23 Wards by Survey Area

Adachi

Itabashi
Kita
NerimaKatsushika
Arakawa

ToshimaNakanoBunkyoTaito

SumidaShinjuku

Suginami

Edogawa

ChiyodaShibuya

Chuo

Koto

MinatoSetagaya
MeguroShinagawaTokyo 23 Wards
Central (C5W)
Ota

South
West
North (Inner)
North (Outer)
East (Inner)
East (Outer)

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

SURVEY GEOGRAPHY
In order to illustrate trends in the central
Tokyo residential market, Savills has
segmented Tokyo’s 23 wards (23W) into
seven distinct geographical areas: Central(or “central ﬁve wards”), South, West, North(Inner and Outer) and East (Inner and Outer).
RENTAL INDEX DATACHARACTERISTICS
Savills collates thousands of leasing
comparables each quarter in order to analysetrends aﬀecting “mid-market” rental
apartment units in Tokyo. Our benchmark
rental data is based on average advertisedmonthly rents for units which ﬁt thefollowing criteria:
1) studio and one- or two-bedroom rental
apartments of up to 100 sq m in size,2) reinforced concrete structures built within
the last ten years, and
3) properties located in Tokyo’s 23 wards
and situated within a ten-minute walk of thenearest station.
savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

In contrast to the luxury residential
market, advertised or “asking” rents for midmarket units ﬁtting the above criteria are
typically non-negotiable and are not subject
to incentives such as rent-free periods. Savills
mid-market rental indices are therefore
considered to closely reﬂect movements incontract rents for the Tokyo market.
OVERALL RESULTS
One full year has elapsed since rents ﬁrst
began to decline in Q2/2020. Despite the23W seeing a slight uptick in Q1/2021, alongwith the C5W, it has experienced anothercorrection this quarter. Rents stand at thelowest level since early 2019 as a result. In
fact, rents in both the 23W and C5W haveremained below their four-period moving
averages since Q3/2020, adding to themarket’s already downbeat sentiment.
The peak spring moving season has
passed, bringing with it the usual relocation
to the capital for work and education.
Speciﬁcally, following eight consecutive
months of population decline, Tokyo
prefecture ﬁ nally welcomed around
10,000 residents per month in April and2

May 2021. Even so, it should be notedthat this population increment is lessthan half of what was observed over thesame period in 2019 and 2020 (Graph6), and the prefecture’s population now
stands marginally higher than the levels
seen at the end of last year. Somewhat
paradoxically, despite the population
increment seen in the 23W this quarter,
occupancy rates have declined, further
corroborated by a substantial increase in
the number of residential listings seen
when compared with the last quarter. A
potential explanation here could be theprolonged state of emergency, which slowed
the momentum of the economy, pushing
the unemployment rate in Tokyo 0.5ppts
above the lowest levels seen in Q3/2019. The
Japanese economy has been experiencing
a K-shaped recovery, and with certain
industries like IT and semiconductors doing
considerably better than other industries,
this may have disproportionately weakened
the spending power of some in the capital,consequently increasing the vacancy rates
in some areas. At the same time, this stiﬂed
demand is coupled with a larger numberof rental condo housing starts in 2019 and2020, intensifying the competition fortenants between landlords once these units
came online, putting further stress on themarket.
Owing to a less pronounced drop in
rents in the C5W this quarter, its premium
over the 23W has increased by 0.2ppts to
17.6% (Graph 2). Within the submarket,
rents in previously more aﬀordable areas
have become somewhat more expensive
in comparison, perhaps as the increase
in ﬂexible work arrangements has madelocation somewhat less important whenlooking for a new home. Overall, nearly
all submarkets have witnessed a drop in
rents, with the Outer North and Outer East
submarket standing out for their notable
QoQ declines. Meanwhile, the West, Outer
North and Outer East submarkets have allseen their spreads versus the 23W narrow,showing that these markets are indeed
catching up with the broader 23W.
MID-MARKET RENTAL TRENDS BYSURVEY AREA
Average multifamily asking rents for the
23W have fallen by 2.0% QoQ and 4.2% YoY,
landing at JPY3,964 per sq m in Q2/2021.
Moreover, YoY rents have seen their third
consecutive contraction, and as a result thegrowth accumulated over the past two years
has been erased. When looking at the various
submarkets, rents have seen a decline acrossthe board, with many parring the overall
gains seen in the last quarter. On a YoY basis,the decline was the most prominent within

Residential Leasing

GRAPH 1: Mid-market Apartment Rental Index,
Q3/2008 to Q2/2021
Tokyo 23 ward average
Central five wards
4 period Mov. Avg. (Tokyo 23 wards)
4 period Mov. Avg. (Central five wards)
RENTAL INDEX, Q3/2008 = 100

115
110
105
100
95
90

Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q2

85

08 09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20 21

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

GRAPH 2: Rental Premiums/Discounts* vs 23W
Average, 2016 to Q2/2021
2016

2017

2018

2019

C5W

South

North
East
(Inner) (Inner)

2020

2021

PREMIUM / DISCOUNT TO 23W AVERAGE

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
West

North
East
(Outer) (Outer)

Source Savills Research & Consultancy* The above represents the average premium/discount over the respective year.

GRAPH 3: Mid-market Apartment Rents,
Q1/2014 to Q2/2021
Tokyo 23 Ward
West
East (Inner)

Central 5 Wards
North (Inner)
East (Outer)

South
North (Outer)

5,000

JPY / SQ M / MONTH

4,750
4,500
4,250
4,000
3,750
3,500
3,250
3,000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Q1
Q2

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q3

Q1

2,750
2,500

2020 2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

more expensive submarkets like the C5W
and the Inner North, whereas some lessexpensive regions such as the Outer East
actually saw an increase in rents YoY.
As with the majority of submarkets inthe 23W, the C5W saw a contraction inrents this quarter. All constituents of thesubmarket also saw annual declines in rent.
Speciﬁcally, rents fell 1.7% QoQ and 3.9%
YoY to JPY4,670. Looking closely at eachindividual ward, Shibuya saw the largest
quarterly and annual contractions of 1.6%
and 5.8% respectively. Understandably, thecomparatively quicker uptake of remote
work by oﬃce tenants in the ward may havelessened the appeal of paying a premium toalso reside there, impacting rents as a result.
In contrast, Chiyoda saw a small increase
in rent over the quarter, despite a moderateannual decline. To an extent, this trend canbe attributed to the combination of the ward
being the least populated in the 23W and the
proﬁ le of its residents, namely high earners
working in the vicinity. Therefore, thesepeople are likely to have more ﬁ nancial
protection from the pandemic and aresubsequently less incentivised to move.
Indeed, the C5W residential market seems
to be moving in sync with its oﬃce market:
Shibuya has seen a signiﬁcant decline inoﬃce rents, whereas oﬃces in Chiyoda havebeen much less impacted.
The South submarket saw a small
correction in rents this quarter to JPY4,093
per sq m – translating to a decrease of 1.2%
QoQ and 1.9% YoY. However, as in theprevious quarter, the performance observedin the submarket was split unevenly. For
instance, Ota and Setagaya both saw
positive YoY growth of 1.5% and 0.4%
respectively. Shinagawa, meanwhile, with
its reputation as the sixth central ward dueto the large number of oﬃces in the area,
was home to the greatest decline in rents
this quarter of 2.5%. A large proportion of
the ward’s oﬃce tenants are those of middle
or back-oﬃce functions who are likely tohave also implemented remote work. Similar
to Shibuya, therefore, many residents of
Shinagawa that had previously stayed there
for the convenience of a short commute may
have been incentivised to move, thus causing
rents to weaken. Lastly, despite seeing its
fourth consecutive quarterly decline of 1.9%
QoQ, Meguro still maintains its status as the
fourth most expensive ward in Tokyo.
Rental growth in the Inner Northsubmarket was ﬂat over the quarter, yetrents fell 4.3% YoY to JPY4,112 per sq m – thelargest decrease amongst all submarkets. It
is worth noting, however, that despite thisrecent hiccup, rents in both wards remain
comfortably higher than two years ago. Here,3

Bunkyo stands out with its large annual
decline in rents of 7.0% YoY. Notably, despite
this contraction, the ward saw its overall
population increase during the pandemic
thanks to its reputation for being familyfriendly owing to its history as a residentialand educational centre. Elsewhere, Toshima
saw a moderate decline of 1.2% YoY. Unlike
its counterpart, Toshima’s population
declined in 2020, fuelling a large increase in
the number of listings – suggesting a further
correction may be on the horizon if the
impact of the pandemic lingers.
While the Inner East submarket hasoutperformed the 23W average, it still
experienced a moderate decline of 2.4%
YoY, as well as a quarterly decline of 1.2%.
However, the annual decline was from the
all-time highs seen in Q2/2020, and it should
be noted that current rents of JPY3,915 per sq
m are still clearly above levels seen two years
ago. Within the submarket, Sumida saw thelargest annual decline of 4.0% YoY, whereas
Koto saw the smallest – falling only 1.0% YoY.
Known for its convenient access to central
locations via the JR Chuo line and theavailability of greenery, the West submarket
saw its rents peak in the previous quarter. It
has since decreased by 2.5% QoQ to JPY3,720
per sq m, though it was one of the only
submarkets that had positive annual growth(0.5%). At the ward level, Nakano – the mostexpensive ward – accounted for most of thesubmarket’s annual growth as rents jumped
by 3.2% YoY. In contrast, rents in both Nerima
and Suginami dropped over the quarter andthe year.
Average rents in the Outer Northsubmarket saw a correction over the quarter,
falling 1.2% to JPY 3,529 per sq m. Over theyear, however, rents maintained growth of
2.2%. Whilst the submarket remains thesecond least expensive in the 23W, its mild
growth in concert with the declines seenin the broader market has brought it closer
to the 23W average. Growth in one of its
constituents, Itabashi, was partially marked,
with rents 4.2% higher compared to theprevious year.
Rents in the Outer East experienced thelargest annual growth in the entire 23Wof 4.4% to JPY 3,266 per sq m in Q2/2021.
Moreover, it is the only submarket where
every constituent saw positive annual
growth, with Katsushika and Adachi posting
an impressive rental surge of 5.7% and5.0% respectively. Even after this, however,the submarket continues to be the least
expensive submarket. Over the quarter,
although rents declined across the board, it
is worth noting that the 1.8% contraction inrents comes from the all-time highs set in
Q1/2021.

Residential Leasing

GRAPH 4: Average Occupancy for J-REIT Residential
Assets, Q1/2016 to Q2/2021*
23-ward average
South
East

100%

Central 5 wards
North & West

98%

96%

94%

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2

92%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy based on publicly disclosed
J-REIT property data (Advance Residence, Nippon Accommodation
Fund, and Comforia Residential REIT)*Q2/2021 is as of May 2021

GRAPH 5: Rents by Unit Size, C5W,
Q1/2014 to Q2/2021
15-30 sq m

30-45 sq m

45-60 sq m

5,200

JPY / SQ M / MONTH

5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200

2014

2015

2017

2018

Q1

2019

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

2016

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q3

Q1

3,800

Q1
Q2

4,000

2020 2021

OCCUPANCY RATESNaturally, since the onset of the pandemic,
average occupancy rates in the 23W havedeclined from the all-time highs seen in
Q1/2020. Looking back, having reached thelowest point since 2014 in Q4/2020, averageoccupancy rates in the 23W showed signs ofrecovery in Q1/2021, driven by net positive
migration into the region. This optimism
appears to have been short-lived, however,with rates in Q2/2021 decreasing by 0.8ppts
to a new low of 95.4% – a level not seen since2010. A similar dynamic has also playedout in the C5W. To wit, occupancy levels incentral areas, having perked up somewhat
in Q1/2021, fell to new lows this quarter,
contracting 1.3ppts to 94.3%.
Occupancy levels also fell in every othersubmarket in the rest of the 23W over thequarter with a similarly temporal tightening
in March followed by a deterioration in
April and May. The number of people
moving into Tokyo during this period has
halved compared to previous years, andthe inﬂow of new residents was not enoughto counterbalance the outﬂow, hence
reducing the demand for housing in theregion. Furthermore, the prolonged stateof emergency has likely caused residents toforego the renewal of their leases or takethe opportunity to move somewhere else.
Considering the current situation, it is clearthat the 23W has lost some of its shine,
partly as a result of the higher prevalence of
remote work policies in Tokyo. In truth, theoccupancy rate in the 23W may take time torecover if the pandemic, and the subsequent
uptake in remote work policies, linger. Thatsaid, the accelerated pace of vaccinationsin Japan should further fuel the optimismthat a post-pandemic era should be swiftly
approaching.

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

GRAPH 6: Movement of Japanese Population vs
Foreign Resident Population in Tokyo Prefecture,
January 2019 to May 2021

CHANGE IN NUMBER OF PEOPLE

2019 Japanese2020 Japanese
2021 Japanese
50,0002019 Foreign Residents
2020 Foreign Residents
2021 Foreign Residents

40,00030,00020,00010,0000-10,000

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Jul

Aug

Jun

May

Mar

Apr

Jan

Feb

-20,000

Source : Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy* These population changes do not include natural attrition (newbirths and deaths).

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

RENTS BY UNIT SIZETokyo’s rental market is principally made up
of compact single-occupier units, typicallyless than 45 sq m (13.6 tsubo) in size. Such
units can often make up as much as 75% ormore of the 23W area’s rental listings. Unlike
other major global cities such as London
and New York, house or apartment sharing
does not form a major segment of the rental
market. As a result, there is a large, stable
market for small- to mid-sized units.
Condos and apartments measuring
15-30 sq m account for the vast majority ofavailable units in the C5W. Having previously
warranted a clear premium over theirlarger counterparts when looking at rents
per sq m, since 2020, things have reversed.
Nonetheless, no size band was immune fromthe downtrend in rents this quarter. Looking
closely at each size band, the smallest
group saw a decline of 2.0% QoQ which wasslightly higher than the average change seen4in the C5W as a whole. Historically, theseunits are the most popular amongst single
oﬃce workers and university students, withinterest particularly high during the spring
season where many of this demographic moveto Tokyo, although there were admittedly
fewer people moving to the capital this year
compared to previous years.
The two larger bands of 30-45 sq m and45-60 sq m saw a decline of 2.9% and 1.8%
respectively. Despite the downturn seen thisquarter, average rents for these two bands arestill higher than the levels seen two years ago.
Indeed, the landscape has noticeably changed
since then with the pandemic boosting
demand for larger units that are better able toaccommodate remote work, and more time athome in general. This transition in preferenceis particularly evident when looking at the
average size of available units on the market– the average size of rentable units has
decreased from around 32 sq m in Q2/2020
to below 30 sq m this quarter, with the total
number of available listings signiﬁcantly
increasing. These observations suggest that
smaller units are less in demand and haveseen their popularity dwindle. Going forward,
larger units are likely to remain in vogue as
ﬂexible work policies become entrenched inworking culture, at least for some people.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OFTOKYO
Much has been observed in Tokyo since theonset of the pandemic one year ago. Fromthe escalation of COVID-19 cases resulting
in multiple state of emergencies and theincreased adoption of remote work measures,right through to the K-shaped recovery of theeconomy, these changes have inﬂuenced the
movement of people in Tokyo and have playeda large part in shaping the demographicsof the prefecture. The landscape of theresidential market has markedly changed asa result.
From its peak of 14 million seen in May
2020, Tokyo’s population has decreased byaround 40,000 residents. Initially, the root of
this decline was the decrease in the foreign
resident population. However, this was thenfollowed by a similar outﬂow of the Japanese
population between September 2020 andMarch 2021. While the population did see
an increase during April and May 2021, thepeak moving season in Japan, the numberof people moving into the prefecture wasless than half of the levels seen in 2019 and2020. As such, the 23W is unlikely to see
any further large increases in its population
this year, and this may have an impact on
the overall demand in the residential sector.
All that said, this decline was not evenly
spread throughout the prefecture (Map 2).
Speciﬁcally, while a majority of the 23W
saw its population decline, many cities toResidential Leasing

GRAPH 7: Rental Condo Starts, 2010 to 2020*

MAP 2: Population Change in Tokyo Prefecture, May 2020 to May 2021

40,000% Change in population

35,000-2.00%NUMBER OF UNITS

30,0002.00%

OkutamaOme

25,000ItabashiMizuhoHinode20,000Adachi

NerimaFussa

Hinohara

AkirunoKodairaAkishima

15,000

Edogawa
Suginami
Fuchu

10,000Hachioji

Hino

Tama

5,000

Koto
Chofu

Setagaya

Inagi

Machida0

Ota

Source : Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism,
Savills Research & Consultancy*Estimated based on the number of rental units built using Steel
Reinforced Concrete Construction and Reinforced Concrete Construction.

the west of Tokyo saw an increase in the numberof residents. Indeed, the prevalence of remote
work policies has somewhat lessened the appealof living in the 23W, and instead has provided
the necessary impetus for some to move to otherregions where they can aﬀord larger apartments
or enjoy a diﬀerent lifestyle.
Population changes in the C5W, meanwhile,
have exhibited some diverging trends. The twoleast populated wards, Chiyoda and Chuo, both
saw increases in their population from May
2020, and were two of the four wards in the 23W
to do so. As mentioned previously, the fact that
residents of these wards often work in the areaand have higher incomes may go some way inexplaining this diverging trend. Throughout
the pandemic, oﬃces in Chiyoda and Chuo weregenerally the least impacted, and its residents had
therefore less of a reason to move. On the other
hand, the remaining members, Shibuya, Shinjuku,
and Minato all saw their populations shrink overthe past year partly due to their above-average
percentage of foreign residents. Hence, thesethree wards should see their populations increase
as foreign residents return to Japan – likely next
year – increasing demand for residential assets
accordingly.
Overall, the demographic changes seen in the
C5W have been relatively moderate, and somereversal of the population decline seen in selectwards could be in sight. Conversely, the samecannot be said for the rest of the 23W, where
populations have notably dwindled, consequently
weakening demand for residential units in thearea. At the same time, the number of rental
units in Tokyo has been climbing in recent years
due to the greater diﬃculty in securing suitableplots of land to construct for-sale condos. This,in combination with the weakening demand, maycause rents to correct in the 23W. Nonetheless,savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy

with the uptake in vaccinations accelerating and
COVID-19 becoming more manageable towards
the end of the year, we may start to see someresidents move back to the 23W, especially ifcompanies are keen to have their employees backin the oﬃce.
OUTLOOK
Having seen a slight recovery in Q1/2021,
average rents in the 23W are back in correction
territory this quarter – slipping to levels not seen
since Q1/2019. Despite this recent slump, theJapanese economy has been demonstrating someencouraging signs of recovery since Q3/2020, andthe downward pressure that the pandemic hasbrought appears to have been somewhat alleviated.
The overall downturn observed in the multifamily residential sector can be attributed to
two key factors. Firstly, the lingering lukewarm
market sentiment, and secondly, the demographic
changes seen in Tokyo. Looking at the latter, thepopulation of the 23W has clearly been negatively
impacted by the pandemic, with many residents
having moved out to neighbouring cities,
including those in west Tokyo. Unsurprisingly,
the ﬂexible work policies and lifestyle changes
that have arisen from the pandemic appear tohave had a signiﬁcant inﬂuence in the increasing
demand for larger apartments, which areconsiderably more aﬀordable outside the 23W.
To that end, the residential market may see
some further softening ahead. For instance,
whilst the C5W maintains its popularity withcurrent residents, smaller units that would havebeen occupied by employees moving to Tokyo
have seen a drop-oﬀ in demand, as evidenced
by the average size of rentable units in the area
contracting. In addition, the signiﬁcant increasein the number of listings after the peak moving
season may suggest that market in Tokyo is

5

weaker than expected. To make matters worse,
this softening of demand will be joined by anupcoming increase in supply. Speciﬁcally, thenumber of rental condos started in the past few
years has been increasing, and several rental
condos built between 2019 and 2020 are likely
to come online in 2021. To be sure, these newly
built condos are likely to be popular, yet they will
no doubt apply some downward pressure on theresidential sector at large.
Despite the gloomy backdrop, there remains
some hope for the Tokyo residential market. For
starters, the rental market should see a boost
in demand as prices of for-sale condos continue
to be stretched higher – itself driven by theincrease in the purchasing power of dual-income
households. Indeed, this is likely to have somelegs considering that more widespread ESG
policies should promote the participation of
female professionals in the workforce. Meanwhile,
despite some early teething issues for the national
vaccination push, the Japanese government has
signiﬁcantly ramped up its eﬀorts recently. This,
coupled with the COVID-19 situation somewhat
coming under control in many countries aroundthe world, adds to the conﬁdence that the end isnear for the pandemic, and under this situation,some of the trends observed during the pandemic
are likely to be reversed to an extent.