鄒Challenges in Building-up a Sustainable Energy in China:
between Economy and the EnvironmentZOU Ji(Dept. of Environmental Economics and Management School of Environment and Natural Resources)

ContentsChallenges in Building-up a Sustainable
Energy in China: between Economy andthe Environment
Professor ZOU Ji, Ph.D
Dept. of Environmental Economics and Management
School of Environment and Natural Resources

1. Overview: history and current status ofenergy in China
2. Driving forces of China’s energy
3. Major challenges
4. Relevant response measures: SinoJapan environmental cooperation
5. Conclusions

Overview: use of Energy in China

Overview: production of Energy inChina(unit: 10,000 toc)

(unit: 10,000 toc)∈⬉໽✊⇨ॳ⊍ॳ✸∈⬉໽✊⇨ॳ⊍ॳ✸ᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ᑈӑᑈӑ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ǉЁ೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈Ǌ˄2002˅ˈЁ೑㒳䅵ߎ⠜⼒䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ǉЁ೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈Ǌ˄2002˅ˈЁ೑㒳䅵ߎ⠜⼒

Overview: Elasticity of Energy toEconomic Growth in China

Overview: Share of Energy Use by sectorsᑈ৘㸠Ϯ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗˍ‫ݰ‬ᵫˈ⠻ˈ⏨ˈ∈߽ϮˎᎹϮˏᓎㄥϮ㛑⑤⍜䌍ᔍᗻ㋏᭄ːѸ䗮䖤䕧ˈҧ‫ټ‬ঞ䚂⬉䗮䆃Ϯˑᡍথ੠䳊ଂ䌌ᯧ令佂Ϯ˒݊Ҫ㸠Ϯ˓⫳⌏⍜䌍ᑈ৘㸠Ϯ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ            ᑈӑ

ˏᓎㄥϮ

⊼˖97-99ᑈ᭄᥂㔎༅䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ǉЁ೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈Ǌ˄2002˅ˈЁ೑㒳䅵ߎ⠜⼒ˍ‫ݰ‬ᵫˈ⠻ˈ⏨ˈ∈߽ϮˎᎹϮːѸ䗮䖤䕧ˈҧ‫ټ‬ঞ䚂⬉䗮䆃Ϯˑᡍথ੠䳊ଂ䌌ᯧ令佂Ϯ˒݊Ҫ㸠Ϯ
˓⫳⌏⍜䌍

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驥第２セッション〈環境〉

Overview: Share of Energy Use by Region
1

Overview: Share of Energy Use by Region2ᑈЁ೑ϰЁ㽓䚼ഄऎ㛑䞣⍜䌍ߚᏗᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎ㛑⑤⍜㗫ᘏ䞣ߚᏗ㽓䚼ഄऎ˖ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖Ё䚼ഄऎ˖㽓䚼ഄऎ˖Ё䚼ഄऎ˖फᮍഄऎ˖࣫ᮍഄऎ˖फᮍഄऎ˖࣫ᮍഄऎ˖ᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎ㛑⑤⍜䌍ᘏ䞣ߚᏗᑈЁ೑ϰЁ㽓ഄऎ㛑⑤⍜䌍ᘏ䞣ߚᏗफᮍഄऎ˖
㽓䚼ഄऎ˖
ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖
Ё䚼ഄऎ˖ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖Ё䚼ഄऎ˖㽓䚼ഄऎ˖Overview: Share of Energy Use:per capita

Overview: Share of Energy: per capitaᑈЁ೑Ёϰ㽓ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ ऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ ऩԡϛৼᷛ‫ޚ‬✸ϛҎᑈЁ೑Ёϰ㽓ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗऩԡ৘ഄऎҎഛ㛑
⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ ऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎϰ䚼ഄऎЁ䚼ഄऎ࣫ᮍഄऎ˖फᮍഄऎ˖࣫ᮍഄऎ˖㽓䚼ഄऎᑈЁ೑ϰЁ㽓ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ ऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎ࣫䚼ഄऎᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗ ऩԡϛৼᷛ‫ޚ‬✸ϛҎफ䚼ഄऎᑈЁ೑ϰЁ㽓ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎҎഛ㛑⑤⍜䌍ߚᏗऩԡϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬ϛҎϰ䚼ഄऎЁ䚼ഄऎ㽓䚼ഄऎ࣫䚼ഄऎ

Electricity: Capacity

Electricity: Volume of Generation


থ⬉䞣˄ғग⪺ᯊ˅∈⬉∈⬉☿⬉☿⬉㺙ᴎᆍ䞣˄ϛग⪺˅फ䚼ഄऎᑈӑᑈӑ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⬉࡯ֵᙃ㔥ˈ⬉࡯㒳䅵䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⬉࡯ֵᙃ㔥ˈ⬉࡯㒳䅵

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GDP Share by Region 1

GDP Share by Region 2
ᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎ*13ߚᏗᑈЁ೑ϰЁ㽓ഄऎ*13ߚᏗ




࣫ᮍഄऎ˖
फᮍഄऎ˖

ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖
Ё䚼ഄऎ˖
㽓䚼ഄऎ˖







ᑈЁ೑फ࣫ഄऎ*'3ߚᏗЁ೑ϰЁ㽓ഄऎ*'3ߚᏗ







ϰ䚼ഄऎ˖
Ё䚼ഄऎ˖㽓䚼ഄऎ˖Driving Forces of Energy Changein China࣫ᮍഄऎ˖फᮍഄऎ˖

Driving force: Population• Population• Growth rate of economy• Industrialization (energy demand side)• Urbanization (energy demand side)• Change of energy share (supply side technology)• Improvement of energy efficiency (D & Sside – technology)Ё೑Ҏষᘏ䞣๲䭓䍟࢓˄2000̚2030ᑈ˅
Ҏষ᭄˄ғ˅




Ҏষ᭄˄ғ˅

Driving force: population share

Driving force: growth rate*'3˄ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈӋ˅




Unit: 10,000ᓎ೑ҹᴹ೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻᘏؐⱘব࣪

೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻᘏؐ ‫˅ܗ‬
Ё䚼ഄऎ㽓䚼ഄऎ

*'3˄ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈӋ˅

*'3๲䭓⥛ᑈӑϰ䚼ഄऎ

*'3๲䭓⥛̚࣫ᮍ

फᮍ

265̚

̚

驥

第２セッション〈環境〉

*'3

Driving force: change of sector share㄀ϔѻϮ

㄀ϝѻϮ


Manufacture/industrial sectors will continue
to account for a dominant share of theoverall GDP.
Is China becoming a worldwide
manufacturing center with high energy
intensity?
(steel, aluminum, cement, chemical products,
car, machinery, etc)*'3㄀ѠѻϮ㄀ϔѻϮ㄀ѠѻϮ㄀ϝѻϮ㄀ϝѻϮ㄀ϔѻϮ㄀ѠѻϮ*'3㄀ϝѻϮ㄀ϔѻϮ㄀ϔѻϮ㄀ѠѻϮ㄀ϝѻϮ㄀ѠѻϮ㄀ϔѻϮ㄀ѠѻϮ㄀ϝѻϮDriving force: urbanization

Driving force: technology change 1• Population shift from rural to urban areas
with higher average energy use;
• Construction of infrastructure: railway,highway, airport, port, pipeline for gas andtap water and wastewater, electricity
transmission system, telecommunication,commercial facilities, and so on;• More housing• More heating & air-conditioning and lighting• More transportation

Share change of different energy sources• Coal: keeping dominant, gradual sharedecrease;• More hydropower;• Nuclear power and renewable: more, but notnationally significant; local implication• Biomass: good in rural areas• Other new energy: Hydrogen, fuel cell, etc

Driving force: technology change 2Major challenges

Efficiency improvement: prioritized fields• Energy production sectors: coal mining, oil& gas fields, petroleum chemistry, power
sector;• End-users: energy-intensive sectors(metallurgy, chemical industry,
construction materials, transportation,
housing, machinery, etc.)• Rapid increase of demand over supply: wideenergy stress• Energy security: heavier and heavier reliance on oiland gas import (1/3 of use from import in 2003, 2/3in 2010)• Transportation system: a constraint• Low efficiency accompanied with out-of-datetechnologies• High pollution: urban air quality, increase in GHGemission• Global concerns: international energy security andglobal warming

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Industrial dust emission

Emission of SO2 and industrial sootᎹϮ㉝ᇬᥦᬒ䞣ˈϛৼ          
         62ᎹϮ㉝ᇬᥦᬒ䞣ˈϛৼ⚳ᇬ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ǉЁ೑ϢϪ⬠㛑⑤᭄᥂Ǌˈ⠜ˈ⥟ᑚϔ

SO2 emission v.s. GDP p.c.

Soot emission and GDP p.c.

62ˈϛৼ

⚳ᇬˈϛৼ



              62ˈϛৼ⚳ᇬˈϛৼ

Understanding D&T&T under
UNFCCC: why D&T&T?

Global Warming• UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol• Overlapping global concerns with localconcerns• Way-out: cooperation in low-carbontechnology transfer

GHG emission p. c.

Path for developed countries

Public goods External
climate benefit
Path for developing countries
Development and transferof Technology
Expected path
Existing path267

GDP p. c.

驥第２セッション〈環境〉

Existing Sino-Japan Cooperation• Research and education• Personnel exchange• FDI and trade related to environmental
technologies and services• Policy dialogues: regular communication
between environmental ministers• Approaches: COE, Sino-Japan Friendship
Centre for Environmental Protection• Trend? Given ODA declines and finallydisappears

Relevant response measures:Sino-Japan Cooperation

International Perspective on SinoJapan Environmental Cooperation 1

International Perspective on SinoJapan Environmental Cooperation 2• Common environmental concerns

Conclusions: needs for cooperation– Global: security of water, food, and energy; global
warming; biodiversity; ozone layer; desertification; transboundary hazards, POPs;– Regional: sand storms in northeastern Asia; aciddeposition, and so on.
– Trade: WTO and environment norms as non-tariffbarriers;– FDI and pollution transfer– New environmental market: technology transfer and newinvestment areas– No single party can address the challenges of publicbads;– Share the public goods derived from efforts to combat
environmental degradation;– More effective and efficient;– Need for imagination on creating new approaches
and mechanism meeting new challenges: interaction
between developed and developing countries.
– Capacity development: a vehicle for international
cooperation

Feasibility of regional environmental
management in East and South East Asia 1

Feasibility of regional environmental
management in East and South East Asia 2• BasisCloser links and higher level of cooperation
among China, Japan, and Korea in
economic and environmental terms withmore common concerns• Common economic concerns– Short geographical distance– Close economic and trade link
– Common environmental and resources
concerns: oil, carbon, acid deposition,desertification/sand-storm– Similar cultural value judgment: concern
welfare of future generation and collectiveinterests

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Significance of regional
environmental management

Regional environmental
management: elements• Regular communication/consultation mechanism atdifferent level• Multilateral and bilateral international conventions
or protocols as legal basis• Prioritize environmental issues and establish goals
and plans in the region• Development and transfer of environmentally soundtechnologies• Constant financial and technological assistance inresearch, education, and institutional development• Policy coordination• Contribution to efforts on global change• Widen current economic cooperation• Curb regional environmental issues more
effectively (desertification, acid deposition)• Knowledge and technology transfer• Towards to common market (less and lessdifferences in environmental standards)

Suggestion 1

Suggestion 2• Development of network of COE;
• Establish a mechanism to disseminate
information and knowledge via COE
network;• More attention to cooperation andcommunication in civil society: NGOs,univ., media, etc;
• Learning by doing with some real
exercises in forms of projects andactivities

Focuses related China-Japan cooperation:• 2008 Olympic Game and urban
development (infrastructure, managing ecocity);• Urban traffic management and air quality
improvement• Eco-system management• Socioeconomic assessment methodologies• Stakeholder participation

Thank you for your attention
and comments are welcomed!
Professor ZOU Ji, 䚍 偹zouji@ruc.edu.cn or zouji61@sina.com

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