Prepared for the IIPS Symposium on

Globalization andJapan’s Science and Technology Strategy
19 – 20 November 2007
TokyoSession 3
Tuesday, 20 November 2007

Science and Technology in the 21st Century— Toward an Affluent and Sustainable Society—Takamitsu Sawa
Ritsumeikan University

Institute for International Policy Studies
November 20, 2007

Science and Technology in the 21st Century―

Toward an Affluent and Sustainable Society―
Ritsumeikan University
Graduate School of Policy Science

Takamitsu Sawa
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Introduction
 2007 has been a year of climate change: It has been 10 years sincethe Kyoto Protocol, 15 years since the Rio Earth Summit and 20years since Our Common Future was published. The IPCC’sFourth Assessment Report was published and Al Gore’s film, An
Inconvenient Truth made headlines. Recent years have seen
damage caused by climate change and made the phenomenon areality for many.
 Meanwhile, Japan is in the midst of revising its action plan forreaching reductions pledged under the Kyoto Protocol.
 Prime Minister Abe proposed in Heiligendamm that world
greenhouse gas emissions should be halved by 2050. This debate iscertain to intensify at next year’s Toyako Summit.

1. What is sustainability?
 The term “sustainable development” was coined in Our Common Future, the 1987
report authored by the U.N. Brundtland Commission (named after the former
Norwegian prime minister and chair of the World Commission on Environment andDevelopment).

 Subsequently, debate raged on the various interpretations of this term; however, inthe commission’s report it is defined as: “development that meets the needs of thepresent generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meettheir own needs. In addition, sustainable development has also been defined as
improving people’s way of life without exceeding the bounds of the ecologicalcarrying capacity of the environment to support it. ( Caring for the Earth: A Strategyfor Sustainable Living, 1990).
 Consequently, 20th century industrial civilization―with its pattern of mass production,
mass consumption, and mass disposal―and its attendant problems of natural
resource depletion, global environmental pollution, and the increasingly serious NorthSouth divide came to be viewed as unsustainable in the 21st century.

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2. Global environmental problems are an important G7 agenda item
 The Brundtland Commission’s conclusion that, if unchanged, the pace of 20th
century industrial civilization would harm the welfare of future generations, was aclarion call to action that found greater traction than anticipated and resulted in
global environmental issues being put on the agenda of the Toronto Summit in June
1988, the first time that this had happened.
 Immediately following the seven-nation summit, the Canadian government held anational assembly (also in Toronto) focusing on global environmental issues, at whichshocking results from simulations indicated that if carbon dioxide continued to bereleased at current levels, the average global temperature would rise by threedegrees and sea levels would rise by 60 cm.

 The following year (1989) at the Paris Arche Summit, interest was such that onethird of the economic declaration was dedicated to global environmental issues, andinterest in the issue seemed to be growing daily.

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3. Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force
 Subsequently, in 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change was adopted at the UN Conference on Environment andDevelopment in Rio de Janeiro. Following the treaty’s entry into force, theFirst Conference of Parties to the convention (COP1) was held in Berlin fromlate March to early April 1995. In December 1997, COP3 was held in Kyoto
and the Kyoto Protocol was adopted.

 After dragging its feet on ratifying the protocol, Russia finally did so in
November 2004 and the Kyoto Protocol went into force on February 16, 2005.
 Abe Initiative (May 24, 2007): 1) Halve GHG emissions by 2050; 2) include all
major emitters in one agreement; 3) balance emissions cuts with economic
growth; and 4) require innovative technological development.

54. The 20th century—economic growth and development
 If asked to say what it was that characterized the 20th century, how would
you respond? One answer might be that it was a century of economic growthand development.

 Why did the 100 years of the 20th century witness such explosive economic
growth and development? One answer to this question would be the constanttechnological innovation. In one sense, the 20th century could also be called
the century of innovation.
 When comparing the Japanese way of life in 1901 with that of the Japanese
today, there is clearly an immense gap. Innovation is the engine that drives
economic development.

65. 20th century was a century of carbon dioxide Why did technological innovation take off in the 20th century? One answer isthat in the 19th century, mankind discovered two sources of energy: oil andelectricity. This technological progress has made our lives more convenientand given us a steady stream of new products that make life more enjoyable.
However, these run on either electricity or oil. In this sense, it is fair to saythat the 20th century was a century of electricity and oil.
 However, the other side of this is that the 20th century was also a centuryof carbon dioxide. In other words, our affluence came at the cost of emitting
ever greater amounts of carbon dioxide.

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6. 20th-century industrial civilization already unsustainable As the 20th century was coming to an end, nearly 160 countries gathered in
Kyoto in 1997 and agreed to cut greenhouse-gas emissions (in terms ofCO2-equivalent value) in the five-year period from 2008 to 2012. The

pledged cut of at least 5 percent by the 40 developed nation signatories
reinforced the idea that the 20th century model of industrialized civilization
was truly unsustainable.

 Science and technology in the 20th century was pursued for the sake of
economic growth and development. However, in the 21st century science andtechnology need to foster sustainable development. If the watchword for the

20th century was “growth,” then that for the 21st century must be“sustainability.”8

7. Plotting the progress of science and technology
 Until the world was hit by the Oil Shock of 1973, the trajectory oftechnological progress was towards things that are bigger, faster, and more
powerful, as epitomized by the Jumbo Jet and Concorde.
 However, in the last quarter of the 20th century, the trajectory oftechnological progress underwent significant change. In other words,
technological progress came to be defined as the development of newdevices or equipment, such as those with improved fuel economy or bettercost-performance. As global environmental issues burst onto the radar in the1990s, this trend accelerated.

98 . Technological innovation: spurred by constraints and shortages
 In general, technological innovation is spurred when there is a constraint or ashortage. When the 21st century is called the “century of the environment” this has
two meanings. The first is that environmental problems will only become more serious.
The second is that environmental constraints will spur technological innovation.
 People often say that the world is awash with things, thanks to technologicalinnovation. When speaking of goods that involve the transportation of people orobjects (such as vehicles and airplanes), home electronics, communication devices, orcomputers, it might be fair to say that these technologies are approaching maturity.
Put another way, from a material perspective the “shortage” or lack of things has
nearly disappeared.
 Two examples of what might constitute future “constraints” or “shortages” which
will fuel technological innovation are offered. First, the dream of perfect health andimmortality. Second, environmental limitations. It seems reasonable to assume that
only technological progress that overcomes the limitations of the environment will
enable corporations to survive in the 21st century.

109. The irreversibility of science and technology
 Next is the topic of the irreversibility of science and technology. There arefew examples of technologies that, once unleashed, have been truly removed
from the market. Whether this technology harms life and the environment, isbanned legally, or is rejected by people, such cases are very uncommon. As
far as I am aware, instances such as this have been limited to a number ofharmful chemicals, such as DDT, the sedative Thalidomide, ozone-depleting

fluorocarbons, and asbestos.
 Why is science and technology irreversible? The reasons for this are that
1) there is a group of experts and engineers that will make a technologicalinnovation their area of expertise; and 2) industries arise that are dedicatedto manufacturing new products using this technological innovation.

1110. Trade-offs and the precautionary principle
 It is safe to say that all technologies come with trade-offs. Some examples
are as follows: the effects and side-effects of medicine, embryonic stem-cellresearch and bioethics, nuclear power plants and the risk of accidents, largescale public-works projects and the destruction of nature, and the positive
and negative effects of digital devices on society.
 Clearly, future deliberation on science and technology must employ theprecautionary principle more aggressively. In the areas of geneticallymodified crops and the early implementation of climate change measures(CO2 reduction measures), the question of whether decisions should bebased on the precautionary principle or should be rooted in sufficientscientific knowledge is being raised. The former carries with it the possibilityof having to pay unnecessary costs, while the latter raises the prospect that
we will find ourselves in a situation which cannot be undone.

1211. Affluence and intellectual development: preconditions forcreating a society that puts a priority on the environment There is a gradual, yet steady transformation afoot in which environmental soundness,whether in lifestyles or business, is coming to be viewed as “cool.” Historically, inJapan lifestyles embodying the ideas of thrift, simplicity, and durability were valued.
However, with the inflation of the bubble economy, the social aesthetic took an
about-face and extravagance came to be regarded as “cool.” Yale University historian Paul Kennedy has asked what commonalities exist between
the various countries of Northwestern Europe, such as Sweden, Norway, Finland,
Denmark, and Holland, that make their societies so keen on environmental protection.
He answers that one common theme is their achievement of sufficient affluence,
while another factor is their high level of education.

1312. What will define affluence in the 21st century?
 Zeal for protecting the environment is one sign of affluence. That the Japanese do
not embrace environmental protection so enthusiastically hints that, while on paper
per-capita GDP is on a par with that of the five countries mentioned, affluence inJapan has not reached a level that allows people the luxury of considering theenvironment. In terms of the percentage of students that pursue higher education,
Japan’s educational levels are high; however, doubts remain about Japan’s actual
intellectual level.
 With the shortage or lack of things having been virtually overcome, the trigger of
economic growth in the 21st century will be environmental constraints. Tacklingenvironmental constraints will be necessary to increase per-capita GDP.
 Addressing environmental constraints will spur economic affluence, and increased
quality of life (QOL) will heighten enthusiasm for environmental protection. For Japan
to become an affluent society, improving QOL and raising the intellectual level will beessential, as will successful technological innovation that overcomes environmental
constraints.

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