Agro-Climatic Monitoring and Forecast ofAgricultural Productivity Changes in Russia
in the XXI century
A. D. Kleshchenko, V. N. Pavlova

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

National Research Institute on AgriculturalMeteorology (NRIAM) –is one of the leading Institutesof the Federal Service for
Hydrometeorology
andEnvironmental Monitoring ofRussia (Roshydromet)

 The Institute was established in 1977 (as a separate entity)
 At the present time there are 70 employees, including 6 professors and 18 candidatesof science The main objective of the Institute is to study weather and climate influence on thegrowth, development and productivity of crops
Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Agricultural Production – Weather-Related Risks and Threats
The Use of Climate Resources!

!
Russia2008

2010

Gross harvest ofcereals andgrain legumes,millions of tonn 108.2

Weather-related
yield loss

61.0

45%

England47,2

Francemln.t
43,6%

Russia0%33%

10-26%
5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Climate Changes (Russia)!

СельскоеAgricultureхозяйство
42%

IBRD dataПрочие отрасли12%Транспорт(авто+ж.д.)7%2,5Аномалии (оС) относительно 1961-1990 г.

Weather-Related Damage Distribution!

Тренд за 1976-2010 гг.

Average annual airtemperature

2,01,50.44 оС/10 лет

1,00,50,0-0,5ТЭК19%Коммунальное
хозяйство
8%Строительство
12%-1,0-1,5-2,0
1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Examples of Information Products:
Agro-Climatic Effects of Climate Change To assess the conditions of major crops yield formation

Numerical Simulation System isdeveloped to research climateand agricultural changes.

 To estimate climate risks for agriculture To develop dynamic optimization schemes of the useof weather and climate resources of the area

The System allows: To estimate the trends of agro-climatic resources
The trend of the number of days with airtemperature above 10°С (days/10 years)
1976-201270

1976-2000
С.Петербург

60Красноярск

Москва

70Иркутск

Оренбург
50

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМосква

Краснодар
Иркутск

Оренбург

Владивосток
50

40-6-4-2-1

0

1

2

46

Краснодар

8Владивосток

40

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-6-4-2-1

0

1

4

6

8

180
20

40

60

80

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

2100

120140160180

The Average Rate of Change in Active Temperature Sums(˚С/10 years) for the period from 1976 to 20127060

С.Петербург

КрасноярскМосква

ИркутскОренбург50Краснодар
Владивосток

40-20
2040

60

020408060

100140180100200120140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160180

The Average Rate of January Temperature Change (˚С/10 years)
for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМосква

ИркутскОренбург50КраснодарВладивосток

40-22040

60-1.5-1-0.58000.5

11.5

100

2120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

The Average Rate of July Temperature Change (˚С/10 years)
for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМосква

Иркутск

Оренбург
50Краснодар
Владивосток

40

-0.6

20

40

-0.4

60

-0.2

00.2

80

0.4

0.6

0.8

1100

1.2

120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

The Average Rate of Change in the Number of Days with Air
Temperature Above 10˚С for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМоскваИркутск

Оренбург50КраснодарВладивосток

40-62040

60-4-2-18001246100

8120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

Indices

Dryness IndexИС 0,18t 100rI  XIIMoisture Index

0,5rX  III  rIV VIIIКУ 
0,18t IV VIII

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

The Average Rate of Budyko Dryness Index Change (1/10 years)
for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМоскваИркутскОренбург50Краснодар
Владивосток

40-0.2
20

40

-0.1
60

-0.05

-0.03
80

00.03

0.05

0.1

1000.2
120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

The Average Rate of Moisture Index Change (1/10 years)
for the period from 1976 to 2012 (May and Summer)

70

С.Петербург

60Красноярск

Москва

Иркутск

Оренбург
50Краснодар
Владивосток

40

-0.5

20

40

60

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

80

-0.1

00.1

0.2

1000.3120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

The Average Rate of Change in Summer Precipitation Sum(mm/10 years) for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60КрасноярскМоскваИркутскОренбург
50КраснодарВладивосток

40-50
2040-30
60-20-10-580

051020100

30120140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160

180

The Average Rate of Change in Autumn Precipitation Sum(mm/10 years) for the period from 1976 to 201270

С.Петербург

60Красноярск

МоскваИркутскОренбург
50Краснодар
Владивосток

40-50
2040-3060-20-10-580

05102010030120

140

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

160180

The Estimation of Agro-Climatic Indicators Trends
for the period from 1976 to 2010

Heat and moisture availability changes (for 10 years)

Federal district
CentralNorthwestern
Volga
Southern
Ural
Siberian
Far Eastern

winterT, ˚C P, mm
0,74-30,90
60,53
0
0,34
10,27
10,06
20,465springT, ˚C P, mm
0,47-1
0,36
60,47
60,27
90,45
80,64
30,38

summerT, ˚C P, mm
0,73-140,57-10,57-120,64-40,25-40,25
70,266

autumnT, ˚C P, mm
0,5700,47-30,65-50,53
120,6500,23
20,44-4

Russia0,410,450,420,46

25-2

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

0The Estimation of Agro-Climatic Indicators Trends
for the period from 1976 to 2010

Heat and moisture availability changes (for 10 years)

Federal district
CentralNorthwestern
Volga
Southern
Ural
Siberian
Far Eastern

RussiaHydro-Thermal
Coefficient-0,115-0,032-0,081-0,019-0,023
0,011
0,022-0,033

Budyko Dryness The number of days
Indexwith T > 10˚С

0,064
0,026
0,056-0,015
0,015-0,003
0,011
0,021

33242333

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Sums of T >10˚С

131106
93
134
6255
6884

The Risk of Severe Soil Droughts under Winter Cereals (%)

Probability (%) of severe soil
drought (available watercontent ≤ 40 mm) in the soil
layer 0-100 сm during
booting – grain fill period ofwinter cereals

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Probability (%) of severe soil
drought (available watercontent ≤ 10 mm) in the soil
layer 0-20 сm during booting– grain fill period of wintercereals

The Risk of Severe Soil Droughts under Early Spring Cereals (%)

Probability (%) of severe soil
drought (available watercontent ≤ 40 mm) in the soil
layer 0-100 сm during booting– grain fill period of early
spring cereals

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Probability (%) of severe soil
drought (available watercontent ≤ 10 mm) in the soil
layer 0-20 сm during booting –grain fill period ofearly
spring cereals

Bio-Climatic Potential (BCP) Distribution

Country
FinlandEnglandGermany
FranceItaly
PolandHungrary
RussiaN,days

R,mm

Sums ofТ > 10

150
288
239
301
335
208
245
176

280
662
509
600
781
432
470
302

1369
2208
2614
3237
4761
2377
3336
2270

Moisturecoefficients
KW
HTC
1,13
1,57
1,22
1,56
0,90
1,43
0,84
1,22
0,73
1,26
0,93
1,53
0,61
1,04
0,66
1,20

BCP,t/haWheat yield,
t/ha

8,513,514,516,514,614,414,6
10,3

6,10
5,52
5,51
2,85
3,24
4,19
1,53

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

The Use of Resources (%)

R = Y / BCP * 100%
EnglandGermany
FranceHungary
PolandRussia

453833292215

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

BCP under Current Climate Conditions (t/ha of Dry Biomass)

Economic region
NorthernNorthwestern
Kaliningrad
CentralVolga-Vyatka
Central Black EarthVolga, northVolga, south
North Caucasus
Ural
West Siberian
East Siberian
Far Eastern

BCP04,75,56,05,24,66,25,03,77,15,35,85,45,7Russia

5,3Current climate, t/ha
BCPN
BCPW
10,64,811,85,5
14,96,112,95,711,85,312,5
9,211,38,0
5,89,310,112,210,6
7,110,7
7,310,4
6,212,26,010,87,3Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

BCPWN
10,611,814,913,212,414,914,015,917,212,211,810,612,313,2

BCP Application for Analog ForecastBCPiyi * yaBCPa

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Analog Forecast of Cereals Yield when Achieving European
Level of the Use of Resources (q/ha)

Federal Subjects
Kaliningrad oblast
Leningrad oblast
Pskov oblast
Novgorod oblast
Yaroslavl oblast
Moscow oblast
Voronezh oblast
Samara oblast
Krasnodar krai
Novosibirsk oblast
Altai krai
Primorsky krai

Expected yield under sufficient

Actual yield(2005-2008)

mineral nutrition

33,735,114,3
17,716,929,026,615,256,4
16,4
13,5
17,0

74,555,862,861,858,163,258,251,059,455,453,870,8

mineral nutrition andmoisture
74,655,963,162,258,463,074,771,691,758,663,571,2

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Analog Forecast of Cereals Yield when Achieving European
Level of the Use of Resources (q/ha)

Economic region
Northwestern
CentralVolga-Vyatka
Central Black EarthVolga, northVolga, south
North Caucasus
Ural
West Siberian
East Siberian
Far Eastern

RussiaExpected yield under sufficientmineral nutrition andmineral nutrition
moisture
61,061,263,565,058,061,062,074,054,567,029,579,548,585,550,063,553,559,051,553,061,562,054,066,4Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Climate-Related Trend of BCP under High Level of Fertility
for the period from 1976 – 2012 (q/ha for 10 years)60С.Петербург

КрасноярскМосква55

ИркутскОренбург5045

КраснодарВладивосток4060-8-680-4-2-1

1000124120

6Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Yield Reaction on Possible Climate Changes by GFDL Scenario(in % from the current level)

Northern
Northwestern
Kaliningrad
CentralVolga-Vyatka
Central Black EarthVolga, north
Volga, south
North Caucasus
Ural
West Siberian
East Siberian
Far Eastern

Scenario realisation period, years
30-40
60-70
30-40
60-70
Cereals
Forage crops
26242232
221221243425
22222725
1924
20
26
2130
15152024
16192430730514-6-72311161428-7-1
619-12-1800
1012613

Russia11

Economic region

1413

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

21

Climate-Related Trends of Cereals Yield in the Federal Districts
for the period from 1975 to 2006 (q/ha for 10 years)

Federal district
Volga
Southern
CentralSiberian
Far Eastern
Ural

Gross harvest, Cereals and grain
millions of tonn legumes, total
21,92
26,22
15,31
12,840,414,75

0,320,30-0,020,160,230,23

Winterwheat0,470,360,06––
0,10

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Springbarley
0,26
0,44-0,02
0,190,230,15

Climate-Related Changes in Cereals and Grain Legumes Yield(in whole) in the Major Grain-Producing Subjects (1975-2006)

Federal subject

Altai krai
Orenburg oblast
Rostov oblast
Saratov oblast
Omsk oblast
Volgograd oblast
Krasnodar krai
Stavropol krai
Bashkortostan republic
Tatarstan republic
Average for the region

Yield changes
q/ha for 10 years% for 10 years
0,232,200,51
5,240,170,900,70
6,340,45
3,680,61
4,810,230,67
1,134,930,23
2,200,51
5,240,483,62Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Climate-Related Trends of Winter Wheat Yield in the Major
Grain-Producing Subjects (1975-2006)

Yield changes

Federal subject

Rostov oblast
Krasnodar krai
Stavropol krai
Volgograd krai
Saratov krai
VoronezhPenza oblast
Tambov oblast

q/ha for 10 years
0,883,862,75
0,65
2,500,431,910,41% for 10 years3,64
10,50
11,28
2,80
14,9
1,84
11,58
1,97

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

The Main Conclusions. Adaptation Measures
Non-Chernozem Regions of European Russia

In whole, climate changes arefavourable for 85% of Russian
territory
Russia has great reserve for
agricultural production expansion due
to the climate component of BCP
Non-chernozem zone can significantly
improve
theproductivityofagricultural production in Russia

 The increase of late-ripening and more
fruitful crops cultivation
 The increase of second stubble cropscultivation
 The increase of fertilizers and means andmethods for protecting crops from pests

North Caucasus, Lower Volga Region
 The increase of drought-resistant crops
cultivation (maize, sunflower, millet)
 The expansion of viticulture, horticulture, tea
production, citrus plants growing, cottongrowing perspectives

 Early realisation of significant irrigation
works
Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Sustainable agricultural development in Russia and therequired growth of its productivity up to 2015 and for thelonger term can be assured only provided that urgent
measures on adaptive intensification of agriculture in nonchernozem zone, and above all Central and Northwestern
Federal Districts including Kaliningrad region are adopted.
Special emphasis should be drawn to increase the level ofagricultural insurance in Russia.

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013

Thanks for your attention!

Fifth Session of North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-5) , Moscow
29.10-01.11.2013