Tokyo – Q4/2021
MARKETINMINUTES
Savills Research

Residential Leasing

Savills team
Please contact
us for further
information
JAPAN
Christian Mancini
CEO, Asia Pacific(Ex Greater China)+81 3 6777 5150
cmancini@savills.co.jp

RESEARCH
Tetsuya Kaneko
Managing Director,
Head of Research &Consultancy, Japan+81 3 6777 5192
tkaneko@savills.co.jp

Market sees recovery amidst mixed signals
Rents and occupancy rates have improved, while Tokyo continues to see its
population decline modestly.
• This quarter, rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) improved
0.9% QoQ to JPY3,963 per sq m, although they have stilldecreased 0.9% YoY.
• Likewise, mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W)
have also increased 1.1% QoQ to JPY4,713 per sq m, but faced
an annual decline of 1.4% YoY.
• The C5W premium has inched up 0.3 percentage points(ppts) QoQ to 18.2%, although the premium is still lower
than that of pre-pandemic times.
•M ost wards have posted some recovery this quarter, with
Shinjuku posting the largest gain on a quarterly basis of 3.0%. On
an annual basis, Arakawa came on top, growing at 4.4% YoY.
• In the C5W, average rents for all unit sizes have seen somerental increments this quarter.
• The average occupancy rate in the 23W increased 0.3ppts
from the previous quarter to 96.1%. The C5W saw an evenlarger recovery of 0.7ppts to 95.6%.
• The population decline of the 23W has continued into
Q4/2021. In comparison, major regional cities Osaka,
Nagoya, and Fukuoka have not seen population changes as
noticeable as the 23W.
savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/“Tokyo’s rents and occupancy
rates have increased overthe past quarter, which may
imply an inflection point.
However, when compared tomajor regional cities, Tokyo
has seen lower rents andoccupancy than pre-pandemic
times, and a more noticeable
population decline. The
implications of new variants
may further affect future
housing demand in Tokyo.”
SAVILLS RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY

1

Yoshihiro Kanno
Manager, Research &Consultancy, Japan+81 3 6777 5275
ykanno@savills.co.jp
Simon Smith
Regional Head of
Research & Consultancy,
Asia Pacific+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.com.hk
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Residential Leasing

MAP 1: Tokyo’s 23 Wards by Survey Area

Adachi

Itabashi
Kita
NerimaKatsushika
Arakawa

ToshimaNakanoBunkyoTaito

SumidaShinjuku

Suginami

Edogawa

ChiyodaShibuya

Chuo

Koto

MinatoSetagaya
MeguroShinagawaTokyo 23 Wards
Central (C5W)
Ota

South
West
North (Inner)
North (Outer)
East (Inner)
East (Outer)

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

SURVEY GEOGRAPHY
In order to illustrate trends in the central
Tokyo residential market, Savills has
segmented Tokyo’s 23 wards (23W) into sevendistinct geographical areas: Central (or “central
five wards”), South, West, North (Inner andOuter) and East (Inner and Outer).
RENTAL INDEX DATACHARACTERISTICS
Savills collates thousands of leasing
comparables each quarter in order to analysetrends affecting “mid-market” rental
apartment units in Tokyo. Our benchmark
rental data is based on average advertisedmonthly rents for units which fit the following
criteria:
1) studio and one- or two-bedroom rental
apartments of up to 100 sq m in size,2) reinforced concrete structures built within
the last ten years, and
3) properties located in Tokyo’s 23 wards
and situated within a ten-minute walk of thenearest station.
savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

In contrast to the luxury residential market,
advertised or “asking” rents for mid-market
units fitting the above criteria are typically
non-negotiable and are not subject toincentives such as rent-free periods. Savills
mid-market rental indices are therefore
considered to closely reflect movements incontract rents for the Tokyo market.
OVERALL RESULTS
After multiple corrections seen over the past
year, rents in both the 23W and C5W have seena reprieve this quarter, bouncing back to levels
observed in Q2/2021. The high vaccination
rates and plunge in COVID-19 cases in the
country may have boosted the confidence thatsome recovery could be in sight.
Nonetheless, current demographic trends
are worrying for Tokyo. This is particularly
true for the 23W, whose population has
decreased by over 0.4% YoY and more than85,000 people from the peak population in
May 2020. Indeed, the number of available
listings has also increased about 20% fromthe previous quarter, and some of the rental
increments could have been contributed by anincrease in the number of listings priced above2

average as some tenants leave Tokyo. Suchchanges were unheard of before 2020, showingthat the sentiment surrounding the pandemic
still lingers. On another hand, major cities
such as Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka have notseen population changes as noticeable as thoseseen in Tokyo. One reason behind this trend
would be the differences in the proliferationof remote work – Tokyo has by far seen thehighest levels of remote work when comparedto other cities. Furthermore, it is morecommon in Tokyo to commute from outside
the prefecture, and the multiple train lines
connecting the city centre to neighbouring
prefectures make commutes relatively easy,
making living outside of Tokyo a viable option.
In regional cities, commuting within the same
prefecture is much more common, and train
lines may not be as extensive.
The appreciation in rents was more notablein the C5W this quarter, and its premium overthe 23W has increased 0.3 ppts to 18.2% (Graph2). However, this premium on the whole has
been decreasing slowly over the past few years,
and the pandemic has overall contributed tothe tightening of the spread, with the prices ofless expensive regions seeing comparatively
stronger growth. Indeed, with the proliferationof remote work, the value of living closer tothe city centre appears to have diminished.
Despite the continuous population outflow
over the past two quarters, occupancy rates
have increased, probably with the aid ofsome rental adjustments, but nonethelessdemonstrating the demand for residences ofbetter quality.
MID-MARKET RENTAL TRENDS BYSURVEY AREAIn Q4/2021, average multifamily asking rents
for the 23W inched up 0.9% QoQ to JPY3,963
per sq m, although the multiple contractions
seen over the past year have led to an annual
decline of 0.9%. This quarter, most submarkets
have seen slight rental increments, especiallythose comprised of more expensive wards. At
the same time, rents of the more expensive
wards have generally seen larger corrections
during the pandemic, and are still well below
pre-COVID levels. Overall, the fluctuations
seen over the past few quarters suggest that
rents might stay flattish for the time being.
While the population of the 23W has admittedly
been decreasing, some reversal in this trend islikely, especially as the pandemic calms down
and office utilisation increases, and more
foreigners return to Tokyo when restrictions
are lifted. Indeed, the moving season in thespring of 2022, when a large number of people
traditionally migrate to Tokyo, will be an
important indicator of residential demand in
the 23W for the coming year.
After multiple consecutive quarters of being
the most poorly performing submarket, theC5W has turned the tables to become one with

Residential Leasing

GRAPH 1: Mid-market Apartment Rental Index,
Q3/2008 to Q4/2021
Tokyo 23 ward average
Central five wards
4 period Mov. Avg. (Tokyo 23 wards)
4 period Mov. Avg. (Central five wards)

110
105
100
95
90
85
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3

RENTAL INDEX, Q3/2008 = 100

115

08 09 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19 20 21

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

GRAPH 2: Rental Premiums/Discounts* vs 23W
Average, 2016 to 2021
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

PREMIUM / DISCOUNT TO 23W AVERAGE

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
C5W

South

North
East
(Inner) (Inner)

West

North
East
(Outer) (Outer)

Source Savills Research & Consultancy* The above represents the average premium/discount over the respective year.

GRAPH 3: Mid-market Apartment Rents,
Q1/2014 to Q4/2021
Tokyo 23 Ward
West
East (Inner)
5,000

Central 5 Wards
North (Inner)
East (Outer)

South
North (Outer)

4,750
JPY / SQ M / MONTH

4,500
4,250
4,000
3,750
3,500
3,250
3,000

2014

2015

2017

2018

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

2016

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q3

Q1

2,750
2,500

2019 2020 2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

the highest growth this quarter, with averagerents increasing 1.1% QoQ to JPY4,713 per sq
m. Indeed, most members saw some quarterly
growth, with Shinjuku demonstrating thelargest increment, although rents havestill contracted 1.4% YoY. Going forward,
upcoming developments like the Toranomon
Azabudai project in Minato, should boost
the vibrancy of the area and increase its
popularity as a place to live, especially for
those looking at higher-end residences.
In the South submarket, rents haverebounded 0.5% QoQ to JPY4,104 per sqm, effectively reversing the correction seenin the previous quarter. As a whole, while
the submarket saw a yearly correction of
0.8%, there were notable differences in theperformance of each ward. For instance,
Setagaya was the only member to have seenannual growth of 1.3% in the submarket.
The ward is the most heavily populated inTokyo and is known for its many residential
neighbourhoods with plentiful greenery, andis likely to remain popular with families. On
the other hand, Meguro’s rents have continued
to descend 0.3% QoQ. Indeed, the prolonged
state of remote work would have lessened theappeal of paying a premium to live in the ward.
The Inner North also saw rents recover
0.8% QoQ to JPY4,095 per sq m, although it
still experienced a correction of 1.0% on anannual basis. However, the two members of
the submarket exhibited diverging trends.
Toshima, the less expensive constituent,
has seen rents grow 2.9% QoQ and 1.5% YoY.
Although the ward saw some corrections
during the pandemic, rents in Toshima haverisen above pre-pandemic levels, partiallystemming from the large number of newly
completed buildings that came online thisquarter. On the other hand, Bunkyo saw its
rents contract again – decreasing 1.1% QoQ
and 3.4% YoY. That said, Bunkyo’s rents arealso generally above pre-pandemic levels
despite the decline, and the ward’s population
has also held steady over the past year,
demonstrating the popularity of the area
known as a family-friendly hub.
While many other submarkets saw rents
recover this quarter, the Inner East submarket
went against this trend, contracting 0.5% QoQ
and 1.2% YoY to JPY3,868 per sq m. Taito saw
the largest decline on an annual basis of 3.7%,
whereas Sumida actually saw growth of 2.2%
YoY. Overall, looking at population trends, thesubmarket’s popularity as a place of residence
has not wavered, with the number of residentsof each ward holding mostly steady over the
past year. Indeed, the submarket borders
Chiyoda and Chuo with good transportation
options to the city centre, and its many
traditional downtown and waterfront areas
have helped to maintain the Inner East's
popularity with its residents.
The West was the only submarket thatsaw both annual and quarterly increments in3

Q4/2021. Specifically, average rents increased
0.8% QoQ and 0.3% YoY to JPY3,737 per sq m.
Like the C5W, the West submarket also saw
a large number of newly completed buildings
come online this quarter, and this contributed
to some of the submarket’s rental increments.
While the growth was fairly evenly distributed
between the wards, Nakano saw the most
growth of 1.5% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, and its rents
are comfortably above pre-pandemic levels.
The Outer North submarket saw a moderateincrease in rents of 0.4% QoQ to JPY3,440
per sq m, but still declined 1.1% YoY. However,like the Inner North, the two constituents of
the Outer North also demonstrated deviating
trends. Most of the growth came from Kita, themore expensive ward, whose rents are clearly
above pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand,
Itabashi saw rents decline 2.5% YoY, and rents
are moderately below pre-pandemic levels.
Although the Outer East was the best
performer over the past few quarters, Q4/2021
saw a complete turnaround in this trend, as thesubmarket actually saw the largest quarterly
decline in rents of 0.9% to JPY3,256 per sq m.
Arakawa contributed the most to this drop,with rents decreasing 2.6%, although this was
likely contributed by some uptake of new, more
expensive units that came onto the market in
the last quarter. Despite the downturn, thesubmarket still had the largest positive annual
growth of 2.3%, with Arakawa also seeing thegreatest increment of 4.4% YoY. While somemembers have seen some fluctuations inrents, the submarket as a whole has generally
seen an upward trend with current rents
greater than pre-pandemic levels. However,it should be noted that all wards have seensome population decreases over the past year,
like Edogawa whose population shrank 0.8%.
Elsewhere, population changes in Katsushika
and Adachi were more modest. In contrast,
Arakawa only saw a decline of 0.1%, showingthat the ward has maintained its popularity.
OCCUPANCY RATESThe population of the 23W has been on
the decline since the end of the peakmoving season in Q2/2021, decreasing by
approximately 35,000 people. Paradoxically,
J-REIT occupancy rates have been on the riseover the same period. Specifically, occupancy
rates in the 23W inched up 0.3ppts from theprevious quarter to 96.1%. The incrementin occupancy rates was even more notablein the C5W, increasing 0.7ppts QoQ to
95.6%. Occupancy rates are currently
around the highest levels they have been
since the pandemic began. This recovery is
encouraging because it could further signifythat quality residences, like those owned by
J-REITs, are still in demand in Tokyo. However,it should also be noted that J-REITs have atendency to prioritise occupancy rates evenat the expense of rents in order to distributestable dividends.

Residential Leasing

GRAPH 4: Average Occupancy for J-REIT Residential
Assets, Q1/2016 to Q4/2021*
23-ward average
South
East

100%

Central 5 wards
North & West

98%

96%

94%

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

92%
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy based on publicly disclosed
J-REIT property data
*Q4/2021 is as of November 2021.

GRAPH 5: Rents by Unit Size, C5W,
Q1/2014 to Q4/2021
15-30 sq m

30-45 sq m

45-60 sq m

5,200

JPY / SQ M / MONTH

5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000

2015

2017

2018

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

2016

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q3

Q1

3,800
2014

2019 2020 2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

GRAPH 6: Remote Work Levels by Region, FY2016 toFY2020Greater Tokyo

Greater Osaka

Greater Nagoya*

Other

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020Source : Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Tourism,
Savills Research & Consultancy*Greater Nagoya comprises Aichi, Gifu, and Mie prefecture.

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

Occupancy rates in other submarkets havealso seen marginal increments over the pastquarter, and almost all have higher rates thanin the same period last year, demonstratingthat overall occupancy rates are recoveringin Tokyo. Moreover, occupancy rates should
be expected to increase going into Q1/2022 assome people begin moving to Tokyo for workand education during the peak moving periodin spring.
Going forward, potential changes incompany policies pertaining to remote work
will be an important factor in determining
demand for residences in Tokyo. Presently,
remote work is still prevalent, and many
companies have adopted a hybrid model
where some days are spent in the office andothers are spent remotely. More people are
expected to come back to Tokyo residences
as the pandemic calms down, but the
Omicron variant may change this, or delay
the recovery timing by at least a few months.
The population changes during the next
peak moving period in spring 2022 will be an
important indicator in gauging the market
demand for the upcoming fiscal year.
RENTS BY UNIT SIZETokyo’s rental market is principally made up
of compact single-occupier units, typicallyless than 45 sq m (13.6 tsubo) in size. Such
units can often make up as much as 75% ormore of the 23W area’s rental listings. Unlike
other major global cities such as London and
New York, house or apartment sharing does
not form a major segment of the rental market.
As a result, there is a large, stable market forsmall- to mid-sized units.
In line with the overall rental increments
seen in the C5W this quarter, all size bands
have seen upticks in rents. After seeing
the largest corrections overall during the
pandemic, the smallest 15-30 sq m band saw an
uptick this quarter of 0.7% QoQ. However, thepopularity of these smaller units is more likely
to be dependent on the state of the pandemic
over the next few months and how companies
decide on office attendance policies andremote work.
Overall, the spread between the two larger
bands and the smaller 15-30 sq m band has
remained the same over the course of 2021.
In detail, the 30-45 sq m band saw rents riseby 1.0%, and the 45-60 sq m band saw rents
increase by 0.7%. This rental growth waspartially attributed to the large number of
newly developed units in this range over thisquarter, but we expect that larger units will
likely remain popular for the time being.
A COMPARISON BETWEENREGIONAL CITIESTokyo is the undisputed economic
powerhouse in Japan with the largest
population. However, the economic strengthof Tokyo served as a double-edged sword

4

during the pandemic, as many large companies
located in the city centre had the resources
and infrastructure to implement remote workon a large scale. As a result of these increased
levels of remote work, the 23W in Tokyo saw an
exodus of people and comparatively fewer new
entrants, leading to its population decreasing
by more than 0.4%, or approximately 40,000
people from the same period last year.
Indeed, the lessening needs of commuting tothe office on a daily basis has weakened theappeal of paying a premium to live in the 23W,
especially the most expensive central area.
Many residents have reportedly moved toneighbouring prefectures like Saitama, Chiba,
and Kanagawa where commuting to offices inTokyo is still a possibility, rents are affordable,
and bigger units are abundant. In addition,
border restrictions from the pandemic havemade it difficult for foreigners to moveto Japan, and the decline in the foreign
population has also contributed substantiallyto the overall population decrease.
Looking at the west, the eponymous Osaka
City, which is the centre of the second largest
economy in Japan, has seen a much milder
population decline from last year of less than
0.1%. Remote work in the region is not nearly
as prevalent as Tokyo, and many people havenot moved out of the city, probably becauseof the high quality of life it provides. Overall,
Osaka is a popular residential location andserves as a hub for the Kansai region, as
mentioned in our [Osaka Residential Markets]
report. Going forward, Osaka is expected tosee a range of changes in the city, such as the
Umekita 2nd Project which is expected to
add a state-of-the-art commercial spaces andhousing. In addition, the integrated resort
developments planned to be completed in 2029
will give Osaka a flavour to the city that even
Tokyo does not have. These developments
should also boost economic growth and create
jobs, and consequentially make Osaka into a
more attractive place to live.
Nagoya City is sandwiched between Tokyo
and Osaka, and is the economic hub of theGreater Nagoya region, which is home to oneof the country’s strongest manufacturingsectors. Although Nagoya attracts people
from the region with its job and education
opportunities (see [Nagoya Residential
Markets]), it also faces population outflows
to the stronger economic regions of Tokyo
and Osaka. Furthermore, Nagoya is widely
considered to be a “car society” due to its
traditional dependence on cars, and hence
the residential options for many people are
not limited by train accessibility. Overall,while Nagoya’s population saw a mild declineof less than 0.3% over the past year, the drop
was still not as large as what Tokyo has seen.
Going forward, the city will be the focal pointof the Maglev Chuo Shinkansen, which will
significantly decrease the travel time between
Tokyo and Osaka, and areas close to Nagoya

Residential Leasing

GRAPH 7: Population Changes over the Past Year,
December 2020 to November 2021
Tokyo

Osaka

NagoyaFukuoka

0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%-0.10%-0.15%-0.20%-0.25%

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Osaka City Government,
Nagoya City Government, Fukuoka City Government,
Savills Research & Consultancy

Osaka

NagoyaQ2

Tokyo 23W

Q3

GRAPH 8: Rental Index of Tokyo 23W vs Regional
Cities, 2018 to 2021
Fukuoka

RENTAL INDEX, Q1/2018 = 100

120

115

110

105

100

2019

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2018

Q4

Q1

Q2

95
2021

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

station should further increase in popularity
as a residential neighbourhood.
In the south, Fukuoka City has bucked thetrend with its population increasing more than
0.4% from the previous year, outperforming
other regional cities. Fukuoka is the regional
hub of the Kyushu region, and like its
counterparts, is known to attract many young
migrants in search of jobs and education[Fukuoka Residential Markets]. The positive
growth in the city could be linked to theongoing large-scale redevelopment projects –Tenjin Big Bang and Hakata Connected, which
aim to revitalise the city by redeveloping manyold buildings and revamping the city landscape.
Indeed, international firms like Google andthe Boston Consulting Group have announcedplans to set up offices in Fukuoka. Thesechanges to the city are likely to create more jobs
and further increase Fukuoka’s popularity as aplace of residence.
These relative population changes ineach city appear in tandem with changes inresidential rents. Looking at trends in rents
in Graph 8, Tokyo 23W was also the only
member to have seen a decline in rents from thepandemic. In comparison, rents in Osaka andNagoya have seen mild increments, whereas
Fukuoka has seen notable growth even during
the pandemic.
While recent changes in Tokyo might bediscouraging, these trends could see somereversal, especially when the pandemic winds
down and companies decide to welcome
employees back to the office more frequently. In
addition, more foreigners are likely to migrate
to Japan as border restrictions become relaxed.
Going forward, multiple redevelopments areplanned in many locations of central Tokyo
over the next decade, such as the Toranomon
Azabudai project, and are expected to increase
the popularity of Tokyo as a residential area.
Regional cities also look to attract more people
with their own large-scale development plans
to make the city a more desirable place to live,
which will likely help rents grow.
OUTLOOKIn Q4/2021, some mixed signals were observedin the market. On a positive note, average rents
in the 23W have overall bounced back from thedip seen in the previous quarter, although theprice increment could be partially attributed
to the increase in supply of new units priced

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

5

above-average that came online this quarter.
Furthermore, occupancy rates also saw anincrement from the previous quarter, which
was especially notable in the C5W. Overall,rental levels and occupancy rates are still
lower than pre-pandemic levels, and the
population decline in the 23W has continued
modestly over the past quarter, showing the
lukewarm state of the market in Tokyo. At
the same time, it must be noted that this is
a comparison to the period right before thepandemic, when the Tokyo residential market
was especially tight and robust.
When compared with major regional
economic hubs, Tokyo’s decline is even more
apparent. Neither Osaka, Nagoya, nor Fukuoka
have seen population declines to the extent
that Tokyo has. Furthermore, these regional
hubs have not seen rental corrections – on thecontrary, rents have generally trended upwards
since the beginning of the pandemic. The lessextensive levels of remote work and higher
propensity to stay within the same prefecture
because of the relatively higher quality of life
are likely reasons for the stronger market andpopulation retention observed in these cities.
Moreover, Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka also
all have upcoming redevelopment projects
that aim to revitalise the city and increase its
attractiveness as a residential area.
Tokyo also has a plethora of developmentsin the pipeline that should likewise make living
closer to central areas more popular. While
Tokyo’s population has modestly decreased,
its fundamentals remain sound. Furthermore,some people may want to move back to the 23W
if they are expected to commute to the officemore frequently. Indeed, the number of fully
vaccinated people in Japan has reached around80%, and COVID-19 cases have plummeted
in the country, which are strong signs thatthe economy was on the path to normalcy.
Unfortunately, the uncertainty created by
the newly discovered Omicron variant has
thrown a spanner in the works, prompting
companies to take a wait-and-see approach
before making decisions about increasing officeattendance – delaying previously expected
recovery scenarios by at least a few months. The
severity and future circumstances surrounding
such new variants are likely to determine thespeed of recovery in the coming year, but theresilience that the Tokyo residential market has
demonstrated thus far will not change.