Climate information for Health
Based on GFS and Extended Range Weather Forecast(Valid from 04th October to 17th October 2024)

Issued on 04th October, 2024
Office of Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department, Pune
Climate information for coming two weeks is provided for the transmission windows of temperature favorable fordevelopment of vector borne diseases like malaria and dengue based on GFS and ERFS.

Weekly Prediction of maximum and minimum temperature
Predicted Maximum Temperature
GFS weekly Tmax (⁰C)

MME weekly Tmax (⁰C)(week 1: 04 Oct – 10 Oct)

(week 2: 11 Oct – 17 Oct)

Predicted Minimum Temperature
GFS weekly Tmin (⁰C)

MME weekly Tmin (⁰C)(week 1: 04 Oct – 10 Oct)

(week 2: 11 Oct – 17 Oct)

Weather Warning
Few districts of Punjab (Firozpur) and Rajasthan (Bikaner, Ganganagar, Jaiselmer) will experience maximum
temperature above 39°C during 04th to 10th October 2024.

GFS based weekly evolution of transmission window for Malaria and Dengue for Week-I

Week

VBD

Malaria(Plasmodiumfalciparum)

04th to10th Oct2024

Malaria(PlasmodiumVivax)

Threshold temp.
Th-Tmax ThTmin
033-39 C16-190C

Regions within the range of predicted temperatures forTmax/Tmin or both in Threshold temperatures range.

33-390CAll districts of Delhi, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan(except Bikaner, Ganganagar, Jaiselmer), Madhya Pradesh(except Annuppur, Dindori), Chhattisgarh (exceptBalrampur, Sarguja, Surjpur), Maharashtra (exceptKolhapur, Mumbai, Sindhudurg), Odisha (exceptDeogarh), Telangana (except Hydrabad, Medchal
Malkajgiri), major districts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh, West Bangal, Tamil Nadu, some districts of
Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, few districts ofHimachal Pradesh (Kinnaur, Kullu).

14-150C

All districts of Delhi, Gujarat, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh,Rajasthan (except Bikaner, Ganganagar, Jaiselmer),
Madhya Pradesh (except Annuppur, Dindori), Chhattisgarh(except Balrampur, Sarguja, Surjpur), Maharashtra (exceptKolhapur, Mumbai, Sindhudurg), Odisha (exceptDeogarh), Telangana (except Hydrabad, MedchalMalkajgiri), major districts of
Uttarakhand, Punjab,Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bangal, Tamil Nadu, some
districts of Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka andfew districts of Himachal Pradesh (Bilaspur, Mandi, Lahul& Spiti).

Not
11.90CFew districts of Ladakh (Leh).
known
ERFS based weekly evolution of transmission window for Malaria and Dengue for Week-II
Malaria
33-390C
16-190C Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, major parts of Uttarakhand,(Plasmodium
Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, some parts of Bihar,
falciparum)
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Dengue11th to17th Oct2024Malaria(PlasmodiumVivax)

33-390C

14-150C

Rajasthan, Gujarat, major parts of Uttarakhand, Punjab,Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, some parts of Himachal Pradesh,Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

DengueNot
known

11.90C

Some parts of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

Weekly to fortnightly probabilistic outlook for prevalence of transmission window for vector borne diseases
Weekly probabilistic outlook for prevalence of transmission window for Malaria
Predicted probabilistic Maximum Temperature map

Predicted probabilistic Minimum Temperature map

Probabilistic weekly evolution of transmission window for Malaria (Plasmodium falciparum).
Second week (11th Oct to 17th Oct 2024):
123475probability level
55-75
probability level
35-55
probability levelLess than 35
probability level

Major districts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, some districts of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh,
Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Major districts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, some districts of Uttarakhand,
Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and few districts ofAndhra Pradesh.
Major districts of Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand, Mizoram, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra
Pradesh, some districts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Manipur, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, few districts of Jammu& Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Assam and Kerala.
Major districts in rest of states.

Probabilistic weekly evolution of transmission window for Malaria (Plasmodium vivax)
Second week (11th Oct to 17th Oct 2024):

175
probability level
55-75
probability level
35-55
probability level

234Less than 35
probability level

Major districts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, some districts of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh andTamil Nadu.
Major districts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, some districts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and few districts of Andhra Pradesh.
Major districts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Mizoram, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh,some districts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh,Manipur, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, few districts of Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Assam and Kerala.
Major districts in rest of states.

Glossary:
SNMalaria VBD

12Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium vivax

Threshold minimum temp
(Th-Tmin)Threshold maximum temp
(Th-Tmax)

16-19ºC
14-15ºC

33-39ºC

Weekly probabilistic outlook for prevalence of transmission window for Dengue
Predicted probabilistic Minimum Temperature map

1
2
3
475
probability level
55-75
probability level
35-55
probability levelLess than 35
probability level

Probabilistic weekly evolution of transmission window for Dengue
Second week (11th Oct to 17th Oct 2024):
Nil.
Nil.
Nil.
All districts of states.

Glossary:
SN1

VBD
Dengue virus

Threshold minimum temp (ThTmin)
11.9ºC

Threshold maximum temp(Th-Tmax)
Not known

Verification of previous week 27th September to 03rd October 2024 weather warning issued fordevelopment of vector borne diseases.
Following table provides the verification of previous week 27th September to 03rd October 2024
temperature forecast issued in last week bulletin with realized temperature.
WeekVBD
Threshol Regions within the range of Regions within the range of realisedd temp.
predicted
temperatures
for temperatures for Tmax/Tmin or bothTmax/Tmin or both in Threshold in Threshold temperatures range.
temperatures range.
All districts of Tamil Nadu (except Major districts of Rajasthan, Andhra
Coimbatore, Erode, Nilgiri), major Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, some districts
districts of Punjab, Rajasthan, of Odisha, Telangana, few districts
Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, of Haryana (Bhiwani, Hissar, Sirsa)
Malaria
Kerala, some districts of Jammu & and Maharashtra (Hingoli, Nanded,(Plasmodium33-39 ºC Kashmir,Haryana,
Arunachal Washim).
falciparum
Pradesh,Madhya
Pradesh,and Vivax)
Maharashtra, Karnataka and few
districts of Uttar Pradesh (Agra,Aligarh, Mathura).
27th
Sept
Some districts of Jammu & Kashmir, All districts of Sikkim, Uttarakhand
to 03rd
Himachal Pradesh, few districts of (except Haridwar, Nainital, Udham
Oct
Ladakh(Kargil),Uttarakhand Singh Nagar), some districts of2024
Malaria(Rudraprayag), Sikkim (East Sikkim) Himachal Pradesh, few districts of
16-19ºC(Plasmodiumand West Bangal (Kalimpong).
Jammu & Kashmir (Jammu), Westfalciparum)
Bangal (Darjeeling, kalimpong),
Manipur (Chandel) and Tamil Nadu
(Tiruppur).
Few districts of Ladakh (Leh) and Some districts of Himachal Pradesh,Malaria(Plasmodium
14-15ºC Jammu & Kashmir (Pulwama, few districts of Jammu & Kashmirvivax)
Srinagar).
(Doda).
Few districts of Arunachal Pradesh Few districts of Jammu & Kashmir
Dengue virus 11.9ºC(Tawang).
(Rajouri).