PROGRAM

MONDAY
Observations 1
chair: Annemarie Christophersen
8:50 – 9:00 Welcome
9:00 – 9:20 Morgan Page « Aftershocks Preferentially Occur in Previously Active Areas »9:20 – 9:40 Warner Marzocchi « The space-time variability of the Magnitude-Frequency
distribution »9:40 – 10:00 Agnès Helmstetter « Repeating low frequency icequakes at the base of cold
glaciers in the Mont-Blanc massif triggered by snowfalls »10:00 – 10:20 Luigi Passarelli « A unified scaling law of seismic to aseismic moment
release from laboratory to nature »10:20 – 10:50 coffee break
10:50 – 11:10 Sirorattanakul Krittanon « The 2020 Westmorland, California earthquake
swarm as aftershocks of a slow slip event sustained by fluid flow »11:10 – 11:30 Louis Debarros « Analysis of seismic migrations highlight that naturalswarms and injection-induced seismicity are both driven by fluid-induced aseismic slip »11:30 – 12:00 : 2’ flash talks (posters)
12:00 – 13:00 Lunch
16:00 – 16:30 coffee breakchair: Zachary Ross
16:30 – 17:30 Keynote lecture by William Franck « The symptomatic spatiotemporalclustering of low-frequency earthquakes and tectonic tremor »17:30 – 18:00 : 2’ flash talks (posters)
18:00 – 19:30 Poster session 1 + welcome drinks

TUESDAYObservations 2
chair: Jiancang Zhuang
9:00 – 9:20 Patricia Martínez-Garzón « Influence of sea level changes on seismicity rates
from a hydrothermal system in the Marmara region, Turkey »9:20 – 9:40 Piero Poli « Integrated monitoring of fault systems »9:40 – 10:00 Zachary Ross « Geometrical Properties of Seismicity in California »10:00 – 10:20 Nicholas Van der Elst « Mapping spatio-temporal changes in the magnitude
frequency distribution of aftershocks with b-positive »10:20 – 10:50 coffee break
10:50 – 11:10 David Marsan « Earthquake swarms along the Chilean subduction zone »11:10 – 11:30 Gert Zoller « New findings on maximum magnitudes and future seismicity
scenarios for the gas field in Groningen, The Netherlands »Advances in data processing
11:30 – 11:50 Jannes Münchmeyer « SeisBench: Benchmarking and applying deeplearning based phase pickers »12:00 – 13:00 Lunch
16:00 – 16:30 coffee breakchair: Max Werner
16:30 – 16:50 Quentin Bletery « Instantaneous Tracking of Earthquake Growth With
Elasto-Gravity Signals »16:50 – 17:10 Sacha Lapins « Machine learning DAS signal denoising without clean
ground-truth signals »17:10 – 17:30 Daniel Trugman « Resolving Differences in the Rupture Properties ofProminent California Earthquakes Using Bayesian Source Spectral Analysis »17:30 – 18:00 Open discussion
18:00 – 19:00 Poster session 1
WEDNESDAY
chair: David Marsan
9:00 – 9:20 Men-Andrin Meier « A deep catalogue of focal mechanisms for the 2016
Amatrice, Italy earthquake sequence »9:20 – 9:40 Léonard Seydoux « Deep-learning-based single-station-array tremors
detection »Mechanical and Seismicity Models 1
9:40 – 10:00 Jérôme Weiss « Can we reproduce fault mechanics in the lab? »10:00 – 10:20 Chris Marone « Lab Earthquake Prediction, Precursors, and the Evolutionof Size-Frequency Distributions During the Lab Seismic Cycle »10:20 – 10:50 coffee break
10:50 – 11:10 Sebastian Hainzl « A Coulomb Stress response model for time-dependent
earthquake forecasts »11:10 – 11:30 Robert Shcherbakov « Stochastic models for induced seismicity »11:30 – 12:20 : 2’ flash talks (posters)
12:20 – 13:00 Lunch
Free afternoon
18:00 – 19:30 Poster session 2 + drinks
THURSDAY
Mechanical and Seismicity Models 2
chair: Agnès Helmstetter
9:00 – 9:20 Elisa Varini « Bayesian analysis of temporal variations of seismicity based on
non-extensive statistical mechanics »9:20 – 9:40 Leila Mizrahi « Component-driven ensemble modelling with semi-parametric
ETAS models »9:40 – 10:00 Camilla Cattania « Spatio-temporal evolution of foreshock sequences in thedamage zone »10:00 – 10:20 Elizabeth Cochran « Linking fault roughness and earthquake behavior »10:20 – 10:50 coffee break
10:50 – 11:10 Jean-Paul Ampuero « Physics-based estimates of the maximum magnitudeof induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field »Forecasting earthquakes and seismicity 1
11:10 – 12:10 Keynote lecture by Annemarie Christophersen « Insights and lessons from
more than a decade of public earthquake forecasting in New Zealand »12:10 – 13:00 Lunch
16:00 – 16:30 coffee breakchair: Jean-Paul Ampuero
16:30 – 16:50 Yin Yifan «The role of three-dimensional fault interactions in creatingcomplex seismic sequences »16:50 – 17:10 Bruce Shaw « Magnitude and Slip Scaling Relations for Fault-BasedSeismic Hazard »17:10 – 17:30 Yohai Bar-Sinai « Neural-network based models for earthquake prediction »17:30 – 18:00 Open discussion
18:00 – 19:00 Poster session 2FRIDAY
Forecasting earthquakes and seismicity 2
chair: Sebastian Hainzl
9:00 – 9:20 David Jackson « Testing subduction-zone earthquake models »9:20 – 9:40 Mark Naylor « A new Bayesian approach to modelling of short and long termearthquake forecasting using inlabru »9:40 – 10:00 Jiancang Zhuang « Evaluating earthquake forecasts with likelihood based
marginal and conditional scores »10:00 – 10:20 Kelian Dascher-Cousineau « Flexible and Scalable EarthquakeForecasting »10:20 – 10:50 coffee break
10:50 – 11:10 Matteo Taroni « Using Hidden Earthquakes to Forecast Future Events inSouthern California »11:10 – 11:30 Marta Han « Towards an Operational Earthquake Forecasting Model forEurope »11:30 – 11:50 José Bayona « The predictive skill of global and regional earthquakeforecasting models for California, New Zealand, and Italy »12:00 – 13:00 Lunch
16:00 – 16:30 coffee break
16:30 – 18:30 Plenary session : Discussion, perspectives, conclusions

POSTER SESSION 1 (Monday & Tuesday)
Azad Khan Russell « Modelling the probabilities of anomalous seismicity rate increases
prior to mainshocks »Beauce Eric « Monitoring the criticality of the crust over a decade near Ridgecrest, CA,with temporal clustering and tidal triggering of microearthquakes »Bletery Quentin « Source characterization with 3 seconds of records on a single station »Chouli Audrey « Potential correlation between intraslab intermediate-depth and shallow
earthquakes in Japan and Chile »Churchill Robert « Exploring Afterslip and Aftershock Co-migration, Following no Evidence
Afterslip Drives Aftershock productivity »Colquhoun Rebecca « Statistical relations between global earthquake magnitudes andparameters of seismograms »Costantino Giuseppe « Detection of small slow slip events by means of deep learning »Daniel Guillaume « Declustering an earthquake catalogue in moderate seismicity context :strengths and weaknesses of existing methods »Danre Philippe « What injection-induced earthquake sequences tell us about natural
earthquake swarms ? »Durand Stephanie « The asymmetric seismic moment tensor in micropolar media »Du Toit Cornel « Hierarchical Bayesian Network for Multiple Candidate Phase Arrivals
Recorded at Many Seismic Sensors »Firode Lise « Seismicity under a dormant volcano: identification of an active crustal fault
below Piton des Neiges »Fischer Tomas « Seismic Clusters Growth and Underlying Triggering Mechanisms »Gardonio Blandine « From the Izu-Bonin to the north of Hokkaido : how did the M9.0
Tohoku earthquake affect the Pacific plate seismicity ? »Gentili Stefania « The machine learning-based algorithm NESTORE for strong aftershocks
forecasting in seismic clusters becomes a free available software: application to Italy »Hsu Yu-Fang « Informative modes in the nearest-neighbor earthquake diagram »Im Kyungjae « Numerical Investigation of Cascading Foreshock and Aftershock inDiscrete Fault Network »Iwata Takaki « A size distribution of deep low-frequency tremors in the Nankai Troughzone: Modeling with a mixture distribution »Kartseva Tatiana « Coda-Based Estimation of Source Parameters of Laboratory AcousticEmission Events »Kwiatek Grzegorz « Limited earthquake interaction during a geothermal hydraulicstimulation in Helsinki, Finland »Martínez-Garzón Patricia « Beyond cascade and pre-slip: complexities involved in thegeneration of earthquake sequences »Minetto Riccardo « Evolution of the seismicity rate during and after hydraulic fracturing
operations in Preston New Road, UK »Moutote Luc « Seismic evidence of an aseismic slip event preceding and following the2017, Valparaiso, Mw 6.9 earthquake »Murru Maura « Understanding the seismic behavior of a complex fault structure throughthe use of a novel 3D stochastic declustering algorithm »Neves Miguel « Imaging a Complex Earthquake Sequence in Sparta, North Carolina,Eastern United States »Pastoressa Anna Eliana « Temporal variations of seismicity rates and Gutenberg-Richterb-values: an example from a high-definition Italian catalog »Pei Weilai « An automatic polarity determining method of the seismic recordings based onInformation theory »Septier Antoine « Unsupervised Artificial Intelligence and Seismicity Declustering :Application to the Corinth Rift area (central Greece) »Ueda Taku « Spatial correlation of strain rate and crustal seismicity in Japan »Von Specht Sebastian « Spatial distribution of the b-value in Southern California based onGauss process inference with a geologically defined prior »Xiang Louise « Analysis of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence by using a refined
earthquake catalog »POSTER SESSION 2 (Wednesday & Thursday)
Benali Amel « Change point analysis to fit time variable parameters of the ETAS model »Bodin Thomas « A Bayesian model selection approach to estimate the distribution ofearthquake magnitudes (including below completeness) »Christophersen Annemarie « Regressions of moment magnitude on local magnitude in theNew Zealand earthquake catalogue for the revision of the National Seismic Hazard
model »
Durand Stephanie « Joint Bayesian estimation of b-values and Mc : application to spatiotemporal variations »González Álvaro « The statistical distribution of time intervals between consecutive
earthquakes worldwide »Graham Kenny « Building an Earthquake Forecasting Tool »Graham Kenny « State of the Art of Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment »Gualandi Adriano « Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes »Iturrieta Pablo « Accounting for earthquake rates' temporal and spatial uncertainties
through least-information forecasts. Applications to the New Zealand Seismic Hazard
Model »
Khawaja M. Asim « Statistical Power of Tests for Evaluation of Earthquake Forecast
Models »Lim Cindy « Comparing multiple deep learning models to detect hydraulic-fracturing
induced seismicity »Malekiasayesh Behnam « An extension of the ETAS model to 3-D »Molkenthin Christian « Bayesian time-dependent earthquake forecasting »Muir Jack « A Deep Gaussian Process Model for Seismicity Background Rates »Petrillo Giuseppe « Defining and testing the predictive efficacy of a realistic spring blockmodel »Rollins Chris « The rates of hazardous earthquakes in the New Zealand region, and theiruncertainties and variabilities »Schneider Max « Bayesian ETAS for Improved Earthquake Rate Models for the PacificNorthwest »Selva Jacopo « A Testable Worldwide Earthquake Faulting Mechanism Model »Serafini Francesco « Bayesian time-independent and time-dependent modelling ofseismicity with Inlabru »Serafini Francesco « Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary
events in a low probability environment »Shcherbakov Robert « A Bayesian Framework for Earthquake/Aftershock Forecasting andTesting »Spassiani Ilaria « Statistical analysis to assess the skill of the Operational Earthquake
Forecasting system in Italy »Stockman Sam « Targeting Temporal Seismicity with a Neural Point Process »Varini Elisa « Earthquake productivity within general ETAS models »Vazquez Luis « Bayesian Assimilation of Multicycle Earthquake Simulations intoProbabilistic Forecasting Models »Xiong Ziyao « The research on the spherical space-time ETAS model »