®

石炭市場の集中と今後への影響
Argus Media Limited, JapanAugust 2022

Market ReportingConsulting®

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-2-石炭市場の集中とは•需要の集中◦◦◦◦

先進国は脱炭素を宣言
欧州では顕著に減少
日本は維持、中印韓などは需要伸ばす
ただし、近年はコロナおよびロシアの影響うける
Thermal coal imports by key importers (mn t)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

149

153
94

106

110

115

143

111

107

110

114

111

170

185

74
94
105
153

94
96
114
140

150

151

167

181

210

221

205

258

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

0
ChinaIndia

JapanSouth KoreaEurope®
Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

-3-

石炭市場の集中とは•生産の集中◦◦◦◦

炭鉱の売却と買収が進む
しかし、産炭国の分布に大きな変化はない
豪、インドネシアは生産規模を維持
南アは減少
Thermal coal exports by key exporters (mn t)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

84
80
184

72
79
193

68
75
182

56
66
191

201

200

459

407

434

2018

2019

2020

2021

RussiaSouth Africa

83
78
150

103
84
167

202

200

208

213

369

390

429

2016

2017

Indonesia

Australia

0Colombia®
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なぜ集中する?
•

野心的なゼロカーボンへの取り組み◦◦•

特に先進国の石炭輸入事業者が脱石炭を掲げる
産炭企業はそれに反応

現実は…
◦◦◦◦先進国の石炭消費量はすぐに減らない
しかし、産炭企業の多くは石炭事業から撤退
新興国はむしろ需要伸ばす
一部の産炭企業が売却炭鉱を買収®
Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

-5-価格への影響
•価格は2021年5月頃から顕著に上昇◦◦

日本の大手商社の石炭事業撤退報道と概ね一致‐ 生産事業への投資が減少するも、需要は減らず
直近の高騰は明らかにロシアによるウクライナ侵攻の影響
key thermal coal prices ($/t)

450.00400.00350.00300.00250.00200.00150.00100.0050.00
0.00

API2 (cif ARA)

API 6 (fob Newcastle)

ICI 2 (fob Indonesia)®
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-6-価格への影響•国際市場の見方◦

価格上昇は需給ひっ迫の結果‐ 炭鉱開発の凍結‐ 既存設備のメンテナンス不良‐ 産炭企業の撤退‐ 需要成⾧の持続◦

一部事業者による炭鉱買収はむしろ供給維持に貢献‐ 売却炭鉱の生産維持‐ 設備の維持‐ エネルギー不足の回避®
Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

-7-

価格への影響•

もはや固定的な調達を続ける時代ではない?
◦◦◦

品位間の価格差が拡大
燃料間の価格差が縮小
再エネ電源の増加
Coal prices vs Crude oil prices ($/Gcal, cif Japan)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0

CoalCrude®
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-8-

今後の展開•需要は緩慢に後退◦◦•

2050年は毎日に連続の結果に訪れる
石炭需要の縮小には代替エネルギーが必要‐ 多くの再エネでは代替にベースロード代替にならない‐ アンモニア、水素の大量生産が必要生産は集中から転換へ◦◦

炭鉱買収を進める事業者は石炭を原料として見ている⁉
‐ CBMからアンモニアおよび水素へ‐ 金属、プラスチックから炭素繊維へ石炭の輸出量は増加するシナリオにない®
Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

-9-

今後の展開•需要の縮小と供給の減少ペースをいかに合わせるかが課題
◦
◦
◦
◦

•

現実的な消費減少シナリオを生産側と共有する必要がある
現実的な消費シナリオを支える資金の投入が必要
現実的な燃料転換シナリオを生産側と供給する必要がある
現実的な燃料転換を支える資金の投入が必要

産消の協力なくして安定的なエネルギー転換は起こり得ない®
Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

- 10 -

まとめ••••••••

石炭価格の上昇は需給の不均衡によるもの
野心的な温暖化防止策は消費よりも生産に影響
炭鉱買収は供給維持に貢献との見方も調達手法を見直す時が来た
安価に買うことが目的ではダメ
いかに残存需要を満たす供給を維持するか
いかにエネルギー転換に必要な新燃料を生み出すか産消の協力が不可欠®
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- 11 -

Masaki Mita
President of Argus Japan
Masaki.Mita@argusmedia.com+81 (3) 3561-1806
Tokyo, Japan
www.argusmedia.com- 12 -