CURRENT PROBLEMS IN SHIP INTACT STABILITY AND
ACTIVITY FROM JASNAOE SCAPE COMMITTEE- FINAL REPORT OF SCAPE COMMITTEE (PART 1) Naoya UMEDA
Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Osaka University,
JAPAN

ABSTRACTThis paper reviews current problems in intact
stability criteria, including the development of new
generation intact stability criteria at the IMO(International Maritime Organization), the activities of
the ITTC(International Towing Tank Conference) ‘s
Specialist Committee on Stability in Waves (SiW) andrelevant international researches as the backgrounds of
the SCAPE Committee (Strategic Research Committee
on Estimation Methods of Capsizing Risk for the IMO
New Generation Stability Criteria) in the JASNAOE(Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean
Engineers). Then the achievements of the SCAPE
Committee are overviewed. Based on them, the SCAPE
Committee is ready to submit a proposal on the newgeneration intact stability criteria to the IMO via the
RINA (The Royal Institution of Naval Architects) as a
NGO representing the learned societies.
KEY WORDS: Performance-Based Criteria, SCAPE,
Intact Stability Code, Dead Ship Condition, Parametric
Rolling, Broaching.

INTRODUCTION
Intact stability, an ability not to capsize without
damage of enclosed buoyant space, is one of the mostfundamental requirements for ship design and operation.
Stability criteria of intact stability are enforced by eachadministration: in Japan the ship stability standard cameinto force in 1957 and since then no accident due to the lackof intact stability has been reported for passenger ships builtwith this standard. Based on this remarkable achievement,
the weather criterion, as a part of the standard, was adopted
by the IMO in 1985 as a recommendation to the member
states. Until now, the intact stability criteria are notmandatory at least at the level of the IMO.
Recently opinions looking for mandatory intact
stability criteria to be internationally applied, which would
be comparable of mandatory damage stability criteria in the

SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) Convention, form the
majority at the IMO. This is partly because latest large
cruise ships and RoPax ferries have high beam-draught
ratios so that the IMO weather criterion could be
excessively stringent and partly because megacontainerships occasionally suffer parametric rolling
resulting in container damage. Thus it is expected todevelop rational and mandatory criteria in place of thecurrent recommendatory ones for ensuring internationallyconsistent safety level against capsizing or cargo damage.
Responding to this situation, the SLF (Sub-Committee on
Stability, Load Lines and on Fishing Vessel Safety) had fivesessions to discuss this matter and then in October 2007 theMSC (Maritime Safety Committee) approved the 2008 IS(Intact Stability) Code, a part of which is to be used as amandatory one from 1 July 2010. The contents of this code,
however, are almost the same as the current
recommendatory requirements, which are mainly based on
empirical backgrounds. On the other hand, the 2008 IS
Code states that rational criteria for dynamic stability
phenomena in waves should be developed in the near future.
Therefore, the IMO started to develop performance-based
intact stability criteria and its target date is 2010. This isbecause the majority of the IMO understands prescriptive
criteria are insufficient to prevent capsizing due to such
dynamic stability phenomena and performance-based
approach allowing the use of latest research in ship
dynamics shall be introduced. As a result, stability research
is now highlighted to respond to this strong demand fromthe regulatory bodies.
Responding to such demand from the IMO, the
JASNAOE established a strategic research committee,
which is named as “Strategic Research Committee on
Estimation Methods of Capsizing Risk for the IMO New
Generation Stability Criteria” (SCAPE) in June 2005.
Eighteen stability experts from research institutes,
universities and industry take part in the SCAPE committee,
and intensively execute researches for this purpose for two
years. Its outcomes had been reported at five organizedsessions during the spring and autumn meetings of the
JASNAOE under the title of “Intact Stability Assessment
towards the IMO New Generation Criteria” for members of

the JASNAOE mainly in Japanese. On this opportunity, thispaper attempts to overview activities of the SCAPE
committee as well as current problems of the IMO and topresent recommendation to be published for the IMO via
the Royal Institution of Naval Architects (RINA) as a NGO
representing the learned societies in the world.

RELEVANT ACTIVITIES AT THE IMO ETC
Stability Criteria of the IMO had been separately
recommended such as the GZ curve criteria (resolution A.
167(ES.IV)) and the weather criterion (resolution. A.
562(14)) and were assembled into a single document as the“Code on Intact Stability for All Types of Ships Covered by
IMO Instruments (IS Code)”, the resolution A. 749(18), in
1993. The sub-chapters 3.1 and 3.2 of the Code correspondto the GZ curve criteria and the weather criterion,
respectively. In 1998, further refinements were made as theresolution MSC.75, which enables the Code to be consistent
with the Torremolinos Convention on Fishing Vessel Safety
and so on. On the other hand, since the UR L2 of the IACS
requests to comply with the sub-chapters 3.1 and 3.2 of theCode, these are mandatory for obtaining the IACS classcertificates.
As explained earlier, the IMO started to consider thecomprehensive revision of the IS Code at the SLF45 in
2002. Its working group was established under thechairmanship of Prof. A. Francescutto. This is because
Germany (2002) and Italy (2002) stated that the weather
criteria could be an excessive design constraint for Ro-Pax
ferries and large passenger ships, respectively. And theUnited States (2002) reported that a post-Panamax
containership complying with the IS Code suffered cargodamage due to parametric rolling in head waves. Then
Germany, Denmark and Australia proposed to replace theweather criterion with performance-based criteria allowing
the use of model experiments and numerical simulation.
Italy proposed to modify the empirical coefficients in theweather criterion. Japan expressed its view that weather
criterion has a role to ensure current safety levels of
conventional ships so that it should be kept but no support
to this view existed at the moment.
Considering the above situation, at the informal
correspondence group meeting in March 2003, Japan(2003A) presented the calculated results for capsizing
probabilities of 75 conventional ships marginally complying
with the IS Code, and stated that safety level ofconventional ships should be kept. Japan explained that thisis because medium-sized passenger ships occasionally
suffer dead ship conditions, which result in beam wind andwave condition without forward velocities, due tofreak-wave-induced damage to their wheel houses andcurrent weather criterion well ensures stability under suchcircumstances. Then Japan concluded that preventing
capsizing under such dead ship condition has been wellrealised by the IMO with its weather criterion and is one offundamental roles for the IMO in the future. This statement
obtained the unanimous support from the participants. Thenthe IMO agreed that a stability criterion for dead shipcondition is indispensable so that the revision of the weather
criterion emerged as a high priority issue at the IMO.

At the SLF 46 held in September 2003, Japan(2003B) presented the systematically executed sample
calculations with proposals from various delegations. Basedon this result, Japan, together with Italy, proposed to allow
the use of model experiments for wind-heeling lever androll back angle in the weather criterion. As a result, the SLF
sub-committee agreed with this proposal and requested
Japan and Italy to draft the revised weather criterion withmodel test guidelines.
At the SLF47 in 2004, Italy and Japan (2004) jointly
submitted the draft revision of weather criterion: the draftmodel test guidelines on wind heeling lever and roll backangle were developed by National Maritime ResearchInstitute and Osaka University, respectively. Italy also
developed the draft on roll back angle with the experienceof Trieste University. Then the SLF decided to continue tofurther consider the model test guidelines.
At the SLF48 in 2005, by harmonising Japanese and
Italian drafts, the interim model test guidelines were
finalised. As a result, the draft revision of the weather
criterion allowing the use of model tests was agreed at the
SLF. With the urgent need of this alternative route, thisrevision was adopted as a separate instrument, i.e,
MSC.1/Circ. 1200, in May 2006.
In parallel to the revision of the weather criterion, a draftof restructuring the IS Code was developed and was tabledby the intersessional correspondence group coordinated by
Mr. C. Mains at the SLF49 in 2006. It consists of threeparts: Part A includes the GZ curve criterion and theweather criterion as mandatory requirements, Part B collects
recommendatory criteria such as criteria for fishing vessels
and containerships and Part C is the explanatory note of theCode. Responding to this draft, France, Norway and Greece
expressed their concern that the criterion for the maximum
stability angle is too stringent for ships having large
beam-draft ratio such as RoPax ferries and large passenger
ships. Thus, the restructured draft was not finalized at thatsession.
To overcome this difficulty, at the SLF50 in May 2007,
Italy, Japan and China proposed to use the Offshore Supply
Vessel Code, multihull criteria in the High Speed Craft
Code and the pontoon criteria, respectively, as alternatives
to the maximum stability angle criterion. All these
proposals intend to relax the requirement for the maximum
stability angle but with more stringent requirements for thearea of righting arm curve up to smaller roll angle. Since
these are empirical criteria, it is very difficult to rationallyrevise them. Thus, the alternative use of the Offshore
Supply Vessel Code was selected among the three because
the USA reported its successful experience in their domestic
standards. Then the draft revision of the IS Code was
finalised at the SLF together with the draft revision of the
SOLAS convention and LL convention for making the part
A of the Code mandatory. Then it was approved, as the2008 IS Code, by the MSC in October 2007.
Other than the above short-term revision of the IS Code,the consideration of the performance-based criteria as thelong-term revision of the Code became serious since 2005
(Germany, 2005). First, three dangerous modes to be dealt
are selected: 1) stability variation problems such asparametric rolling, 2) stability under dead ship condition
and 3) manoeuvring-related problems such as broaching-to.
These are clearly noted in the Part A of the 2008 IS Code.

For each mode, a single splinter group was established: Ms.
H. Cramer was nominated as the coordinator of the groupfor 1) and Dr. N. Umeda was nominated as the coordinatorsof groups 2) and 3). Responding to this situation, Japan(2006A, 2006B, 2006C) reviewed the numerical simulation
methodologies on these three modes and proposed a way to
use them as alternatives to the existing prescriptive criteria.
First, numerical prediction on parametric rolling well agrees
with the model experiments in regular waves but not so wellin irregular waves. Second, a piece-wise linear approachseems to be promising for quantifying capsizing probability
under dead ship condition. Third, a bifurcation theory canefficiently predict thresholds of surf-riding, which is aprerequisite of broaching, in regular following waves.
Germany (2006) systematically conducted numericalsimulation in irregular waves for many ships and thenproposed a new empirical criterion for the stability variation
problem. Italy (2005) proposed a calculation method of
capsizing probability based on a linearization procedure thattakes into account the presence of a critical rolling angle
and, in a simplified way, nonlinearities of restoring
moment.
Based on the above proposals and the relevant
discussion, at the SLF50 in 2007, Japan, the Netherlands
and the USA (2007) jointly submitted a document
describing the framework for developing the newgeneration intact stability criteria. Here the new generation
criteria are expected to be applied to unconventional ships,
not to be new empirical criteria and to be supplemented
with ship-specific operational guidance. A ship is firstly
judged by vulnerability criteria, which are easily used but
are based on physics, and, only if she fails to comply with it,
she is categorised as unconventional and then direct stability
assessment utilising numerical simulation or the equivalentmeans should be applied. Germany (2007) updated the
proposal of a new empirical criterion for all ships andproposed not to use ship-specific operational guidance. As aresult of discussion, significant majority of the working
group supported the proposal from Japan, the Netherlands
and the USA. Therefore, the IMO will develop new
generation intact stability criteria based on the frameworkagreed at the SLF50 with the new target date of the year
2010.
Outside the IMO, the European Commission runs its
FP6 project named SAFEDOR, coordinated by Dr. P.
Sames. Here, for realising risk-based approach, ship safetyincluding intact stability, damage stability and fire
protection is systematically investigated by several researchorganisations and universities in Europe. Its ultimate goal isset to export its results to regulations. For intact stability,
Jensen (2007) applies the First Order Reliability Method(FORM) to the out-crossing problem of parametric rolling
and Themelis and Spyrou (2007) attempts to evaluate
probabilities of dangerous wave condition by combining
deterministic analyses on nonlinear ship motion withprobabilistic analyses on Gaussian waves.
As a world-wide independent association of researchorganisations on ship hydrodynamics, the ITTC establisheda specialist committee on stability in waves since 1996. It
was chaired firstly by Prof. D. Vassalos, then by Dr. J.O. de
Kat and is currently chaired by Dr. N. Umeda. This
committee developed and is updating the recommended
procedure of model tests on intact stability and executedbenchmark testing of numerical codes on intact stability,
covering parametric rolling and broaching, by utilising thecapsizing model experiments in Japan. (The Specialist
Committee on Prediction of Extreme Ship Motions andCapsizing, 2002; The Specialist Committee on Stability inWaves, 2005) These standardisation efforts will be crucial
for implementation of the new generation intact stability
criteria.

ESTABLISHMENT OF SCAPE ACTIVITIESIn 2005, three learned societies in Japan were merged
into a new society named the Japan Society of Naval
Architects and Ocean Engineers (JASNAOE). Under thechairmanship of Prof. S. Naito, the JASNAOE decided tohave research committees for specified topics and specified
terms. The SCAPE committee is one of the researchcommittees that the JASNAOE established in 2005. The
purpose of this committee is to contribute to theconsideration of new generation intact stability criteria fromresearchers’ viewpoint. It could help the activities of theStability Project of Japan Ship Technology Research
Association, which discusses under the chairmanship of Dr.
N. Umeda the response of the Japanese delegation to the
SLF sub-committee. The SCAPE committee plans tocontribute not only to the documents from the Japanesedelegation but also to the documents from the RINA, which
representing the learned societies on naval architecture in
the world, via the JASNAOE. In addition, the SCAPE
committee is expected to support the activities of the SiW
committee of the ITTC. The committee was establishedwith members from universities, research institutes andindustries as listed in Table 1 and is requested to complete
its task by 31 March 2008. The budget of this committee
was supplied by the Japan Society of Promotion of Science,
based on the application of group members, as well as the
JASNAOE.
Table 1 Membership list of the SCAPE committee
G. Bulian
T. Fujiwara

Osaka University
Osaka Prefecture University

H. Hashimoto
M. HoriY. Ikeda
T. Iseki
S. Ishida
T. Katayama
N. Kogiso

Osaka University
Osaka University
Osaka Prefecture University
Tokyo Maritime University
National
Maritime
Research
Institute
Osaka Prefecture University
Osaka Prefecture University

A. MakiOsaka University

A. Matsuda

National Research Institute ofFisheries Engineering
National Research Institute ofFisheries Engineering
Osaka Prefecture University
National
Maritime
Research
Institute
Osaka University
National
Maritime
Research
Institute
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Osaka University

T. Momoki
A. Munif
Y. Ogawa
D. Paroka
H. Taguchi
N. TokiN. Umeda

till Feb. 2007
from
Dec.
2007
Secretary
till Mar. 2006

from
2007
from
2007

Nov.
Nov.

from
May
2006
till Feb. 2006

till Mar. 2007

Chairman

OUTCOMES FROM THE ACTIVITIES OF SCAPE
COMMITTEEThe SCAPE committee published 43 conference papers
at the spring and autumn meetings of the JASNAOE andmany papers in the refereed journals and international
conferences. Based on these, the outcomes from the SCAPE
committee are overviewed. More details can be found incompanion reports of this report for individual topics.
For parametric rolling, free-running model experimentsof a post-Panamax containership in head and bow waves inthe seakeeping and manoeuvring basins of National
Research Institute of Fisheries Engineering and National
Maritime Research Institute and observed parametric rollingwith the roll angle exceeding 20 degrees. It was found thatmaximum roll angles are almost the same among regularwaves, long-crested irregular waves and short-crested
irregular waves. Regarding the restoring variation due towaves as the cause of parametric rolling, the prediction of
its harmonic component was attempted not only by the
Froude-Krylov component on its own but also the radiationand diffraction components as well. For the mean of therestoring variation, a formula using a momentum law wasdeveloped. These results were compared with the captivemodel experiments and then better agreements than theexisting approach were reported. Taking these aspects into
account, numerical simulation of parametric rolling in headwaves was executed and compared with the fore-mentioned
experiments. While good agreements for the case inmoderate regular waves between the calculation and theexperiments were reported, some discrepancies can befound for the cases in severe regular waves and irregularwaves. For investigating this reason, direct measurement of
restoring variation acting on scaled models in irregularwaves were executed. It was found, however, that rather
acceptable agreement exists also in irregular waves. On theother hand, if we repeat many realisations in modelexperiments and numerical simulations in irregular waves
under the same wave parameters, the scatter of the rollangles could be large. This is because parametric rolling in
irregular waves can be regarded as “practically
non-ergodic”. Parametric rolling appears only if the level ofrestoring variation exceeds a certain threshold. Thus it isneither Gaussian nor practically-ergodic. Therefore, it isextremely difficult in principle to obtain good agreement
among individual realisations so that it is presumed theensemble average should be used for this comparison.
Time-Varying coefficient Vector Auto-Regresive (TVVAR)
method, bispectrum analysis and trispectrum analysis wereapplied to parametric rolling of the post-Panamax
containership in head waves for clarifying the nonlinear
nature of parametric rolling. Furthermore, modelexperiment and numerical simulation study were carried out
also for a latest PCTC, which is similar to one sufferedparametric rolling in the Northern Atlantic, and its
parametric rolling in regular and irregular head waves wereidentified (Hashimoto et al., 2008).
For stability under dead ship condition, a method for
calculating capsizing probability in irregular beam wind andwaves with Belenky’s piece-wise linear approach (Belenky,1993) were intensively investigated. Here the restoring arm
curve is approximated with piece-wise linear curves andthen capsizing probability can be analytically calculated.

Comparing this method with the Monte Carlo simulation,some discrepancies exist in extremely severe sea state. Thisis probably because the Poisson assumption is not
appropriate for the case out-crossing probability is very high.
In moderate sea state, such as the average wind velocity of
26 m/s that the weather criterion assumes, acceptableagreement within the confidence interval was found.
Therefore, the committee concluded the piece-wise linear
approach could be well applied and to extend the method
further. First, since dead ship conditions does not directly
mean beam sea condition, a method for calculating drifting
velocity and attitude was developed and then capsizing
probability under such condition was calculated. Second,
effects of trapped water on deck, which is indispensable forfishing vessels, and effect of critical angle fordown-flooding or cargo shift were taken into account in thecalculation of capsizing probability. Considering these
aspects, annual capsizing risk for ships having large
windage areas, i.e. a PCTC, a RoPax ferry, a large
passenger ship and a containership were calculated. As aresult, it was remarked that shift of down-flooding point for
the PCTC and avoiding severe weather for the RoPax ferry
are effective measures. For purse seiners, their safety level
ensured by the IMO weather criterion on its own is notalways sufficient but that by the water-on-deck criterion of
the Torremolinos Convention seems to be appropriate. So
far, it was assumed in the calculation of long-term capsizing
probability that wind is fully correlated with waves. The
effect of this assumption was examined by calculating
capsizing probability with a joint probability density
function of the average wind velocity, the significant wave
height and the mean wave period (Ogawa et al., 2008).
Moreover, it was found that significant parametricrolling occurs during model experiments of a large
passenger ship without the bilge keels drifting in beam
waves. The reason of this is presumed by numericalsimulation and model experiments to be restoring variation
due to resonant relative heave motions (Ikeda et al., 2008).
For broaching, it is important to predict the threshold ofsurf-riding, which is a prerequisite to broaching. In case ofregular following waves, its prediction methods with an
uncoupled surge model were already established. In case ofregular stern quartering waves, it is essential to takecoupling with manoeuvring motions into account. Therefore,a global bifurcation analysis was applied to asurge-sway-yaw-roll mathematical model with a PD auto
pilot. As a result, the critical ship speed for surf-riding instern quartering waves was obtained as a function of the
auto pilot course. By investigating whether the surf-riding
results in broaching or capsizing was investigated bysystematic numerical simulation in regular waves, areas of
rudders and stabilizing fins as well as control gains were
optimised. For broaching in irregular waves, a stochastic
theory for estimating broaching probability with thedeterministic broaching conditions in regular waves wasdeveloped and is well validated with the Monte Carlosimulation (Umeda et al., 2008).
For preventing the above phenomena, devices were
proposed and were successfully validated with modelexperiments. An anti-rolling tank was proved as a
cost-effective risk control option for preventing container
damage due to parametric rolling of a containership(Hashimoto et al., 2008). In addition, its design method with

a CFD technique was developed. Wings attached to a ship
above calm water surface were proposed for preventing
broaching (Umeda et al., 2008).
Further, model experiments based on the interim model
testing guidelines for the weather criterion were performed
and the reported results enabled us to examine theusefulness of the interim guidelines including its effect onstability assessment (Ogawa et al., 2008). A model testing
technique for evaluating amount of trapped water on deck inbeam waves (Ogawa et al., 2008) and a model test method
for measuring hydrodynamic forces acting on a ship heeled
up to the deck submergence with a forward velocity(Umeda et al., 2008) were improved and results with themwere reported.
As mentioned above, the outcomes from the SCAPE
committee already contributed not only to research progressin ship dynamics but also to the proposals from the Japanesedelegation for the IMO to some extent. Since common sense
based on a linear theory faces difficulty to understand these
nonlinear phenomena, an explanatory note is underdevelopment.

a simplified prediction formula for metacentric height onwave crest is desirable.
It might be practical to use numerical simulations for the
performance-based criteria for ships which fail to pass thevulnerability criteria, because model experiment requires
prohibitively large amount of cost and time as well as many
testing facilities and their staff. For the dead ship condition
and broaching, the methodologies developed by the SCAPE
committee are available. It is desirable to obtain measured
data of capsizing probability under a dead ship condition
from model experiments in artificial irregular wind andwaves with sufficient statistical confidence and to validate
the proposed theory with them. For parametric rolling, it
seems to be necessary to calculate ensemble average ofmany numerical realisations. The first order reliability
method (FORM) may provide a way to make this procedure
more efficient. (Kogiso & Murotsu, 2008) In addition, theeffect of time-varying resistance increase in irregular waves
may be important and its effect is now under investigation.

CONCLUDING REMARKSRECOMMENDATION FOR THE IMO NEW
GENERATION CRITERIA
Based on the research outcomes from the two
year-activities of the SCAPE committee, the committee
would like to invite the IMO to take the following
suggestions into account for developing its new generation
intact stability criteria.
First, the following principles should be adopted: 1) the
new performance-based criteria will be applied tounconventional ships while the conventional ships should
be dealt with the existing prescriptive criteria, 2) no further
empirical criterion should be developed, 3) design criteria
should be supplemented with operational criteria. Although
it is important to rationalise intact stability criteria, weshould bear in mind the fact that most of conventional ships
under the current criteria are safely operated and that thecurrent intact stability criteria are quite reliable at least fromstatistical viewpoint. It is noteworthy that such sufficient
safety level also does realised with appropriate operationand it is unrealistic to separate design criteria fromoperation ones. In the case of unconventional ships,
empirical criterion is not applicable because no empirical
data exists for unconventional ships. If a new criterion stays
empirical, it could rather prevent a design of unconventional
ships.
The
vulnerability
criteria,
which
distinguish
unconventional ship from conventional ones, should be as
simple as possible because they should be applied to all
ships in principle. It is not so good idea to spend much
effort on ships having sufficient stability, such as tankers
and bulk carriers, which do not have real danger against
capsizing. Pursuing this principle, a candidate of thecriterion for dead ship condition could be a weather
criterion with some reasonable prediction of roll damping
and effective wave slope coefficient. For broaching, it could
be sufficient to identify surf-riding thresholds in pure
following waves as the current IMO operational guidance.
For parametric rolling or pure loss of stability on wave crest,

Responding to the demands of research for new
generation intact stability criteria at the IMO, the
JASNAOE established the SCAPE committee in 2005 andthe SCAPE committee has completed their term. Based on
the outcomes of the research on probabilistic stability
assessment methodology for parametric rolling, stability
under dead ship condition and broaching, the committee
provides recommendations to be submitted to the IMO via
the RINA.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported by a Grant-in Aid for
Scientific Research of the Japan Society for Promotion of
Science (No. 18360415). The work described here waspartly carried out as a research activity of Stability Projectof Japan Ship Technology Research Association, funded by
the Nippon Foundation. The committee SCAPE itself is run
under the umbrella of the Japan Society of Naval Architects
and Ocean Engineers. The author expresses his sincere
gratitude to the above organisations.

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