OEWG45 Side Event“Japan’s Fluorocarbons Control Policy and Industry’s Actions toward Carbon Neutrality by 2050” (JRAIA)The Role of Heat Pumps towards
Decarbonization
3 July 2023
Takahiro ASAHI
Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan1

Heat Pumps - energy efficiency (EE) technology
Heat pump technologies
around us

Air Conditioner

Refrigerator

Water Heater

Clothes Dryer

Efficient heat supply by HPs

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Source：Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

Heat Pumps - proven technology for various applications
Wide variety of applications of heat pumps

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Source：Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

Heat Pumps - renewable energy (RE) technology
Heat pumps as a kind of renewable energy, just like PV

4Source：Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

Heat Pumps - the key technology for decarbonization
IEA “Net Zero by 2050”

IEA “The Future of Heat Pumps”(18 May 2021)(30 Nov 2022)

2025 “No new sales offossil fuel boilers”
2030 “All new buildings arezero-carbon-ready”
2040 “Net-zero emissions electricity
globally”
2045 “50% of heating demand met byheat pumps”
Source：Net Zero by 2050, IEA 5Source：The Future of Heat Pumps, IEA Figure 1.12

Japan’s Policy - high expectation for heat pumps
Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)- 2030, 2050 targets and implementation of policies (e.g. amending the law)

Japan's Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement- Industry: “For the heat demand in low-temperature such as steam and hot water,
utilizing electrification technologies including heat pumps and electric heating
wires would be a relevant option for decarbonization.”- Building: “…, the Government aims to achieve the sector coupling of electricity, heat,and mobility in general, using electrified vehicles, heat pump-type water
heaters fuel cells and cogeneration, …”, “… improvement of heat energy efficiency
such as heat pump.”, “The Government will also look into the potential flexibility ofheat storage type air-conditioning equipment, heat pump water heaters infacilities with large demand for hot water supply, ”
6Source- Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): UNFCCC- Japan's Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement: UNFCCC (EN), MOEJ (JP)Japan’s Policy - quantitative targets

Source- Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures: MOEJ (JP)- The Sixth Strategic Energy Plan: METI (EN, JP)- Track record: The document of the Central Environment Council, METI (JP)Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures andThe Sixth Strategic Energy Plan-

Quantitative targets are set for industrial HPs and commercial and residential HPWHs
Domestic HPWHs

Commercial HPWHs

Industrial HPs

KPI(cumulative installation: 104 units)

KPI(cumulative installation: 104 units)

KPI(cumulative installation: MW)
1,673 MW (Prospects 2030)

745.9 (Result 2020)824 (Prospects 2025)
5.5 (Result 2020) > 5 (Prospects 2020)
168.4 (Result 2020) < 277 (Prospects 2020)7

Source- The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association (JRAIA) (JP)Japan’s Market - Residential HPWH (EcoCute)
The Great East Japan Earthquake

9,000,000
8,000,000

600,000

7,000,000

500,000

6,000,000

400,000

5,000,000
4,000,000

300,000

3,000,000

200,000

2,000,000

100,000

1,000,000

00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

Annual Sales (units)

700,000

Fiscal Year (Apr. - Mar.)
8Cumulative Sales (units)

The financial crisis

Reached 700,000 units
annually with an increaseof around 40,000 units
annually.
The cumulative sales willreach 9 million units insummer 2023 at this rate.

Japan’s Potential - growth needed to achieve decarbonization
We expect heat pumps to play a pivotal role in achieving decarbonization
Other - road snow melting
Industrial - warming
Commercial - hot water

reduction [Mt-COCO2CO2
reduction[Mt-CO2] 2]

Example) Residential heat pump water heaters

300

Agricultural - greenhouse
Industrial - AC
Residential - AC

251 Mt-CO2

250
200147 Mt-CO2150
10058 Mt-CO202030

Industrial
48%
Commercial
15%
Residential
36%50Example) Residential ACs

Industrial - heating
Commercial - AC
Residential - hot water

2040

2050

We estimate heat pumps can contribute to CO2 reductionof 251 Mt-CO2 by 2050, which is equivalent to about onefourth the emissions today.
9Source：Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of JapanFuture - Even cleaner heating with cleaner electricity
World 2020
(440)

CO2 emission ratio
compared to gas<Calculation Conditions>
Emission factor of gas: 13.95 g-C/MJ (51.15 g-CO2/MJ)Emission factor of electricity (source): IEA, EEA, METI (JP), ELCS (JP), Climate Transparency
Boiler efficiency (HHV-based): 90%

Heat pumps has
already proven to beclean heatingtechnology.

COP = 3.5
COP = 4.0

gas boiler (base)

1

COP = 4.5
COP = 5.0

EU 1990(524)

JP 2019(444)
EU 2019(275)

COP = 6.0

World 2030
(SDS)
(220)

COP:
Coefficient Of
Performance(the performance ofheat pumps)
SDS:
Sustainable
Development
Scenario by IEAWorld 2040
(IEA Roadmap)(0!)

decarbonization of electricity
8006004002000

Carbon intensity of electricity [g-CO2 / kWh]10

Heat pumps will bean even cleaner
heating technology aselectricity becomecleaner!

Summary-

Heat pumps: are proven energy efficiency technology with wide variety of applications.
Heat pumps can also be regarded as renewable energy technology.

-

Global recognition: Heat pumps are recognized as the key technology to make heating
more sustainable, thus achieving decarbonization.

-Policy: Japanese government has a high expectation for heat pumps. Quantitative
targets have been set and market growth can be expected in the near future.

-Market: above all, the shipments of heat pump water heaters are rapidly growing.

-Potential： According to HPTCJ’s survey, heat pumps will have to be further deployed inorder to achieve decarbonization. We see around 250 Mt-CO2 of emission reduction by
2050, which is equivalent to about one-fourth the emissions today.

-Future: Heat pumps can contribute greatly to CO2 reduction. If electricity becomescleaner, the contribution would become greater. But no need to wait for that.
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Thank you for your attention!
Takahiro ASAHI
asahi.takahiro@hptcj.or.jp

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