IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022
March 3, 2023, Friday

Released every Friday

Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 10th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php■ Overview
The key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contract on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) in the February 9 February 15 week moved within a range of $70.86 per barrel and $80.14/bbl.
On February 16, the key contract turned down slightly due to concerns about recession based on a continuation of the interest rate
rise. Market players responded to the U.S. Wholesale Price Index and the announcement of the robust most recent number of apply for
unemployment benefits. Furthermore, financial interests made statements of a continuation of an active interest rate rise. However, the oil price
was supported by an upward revision of the world oil demand for 2023 by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and IEA(International Energy Agency) until the day before. The March contract closed at $78.49/bbl down $0.10/bbl from the previous trading day.
On February 17, the key contract turned down further for the fourth straight trading day due to concerns about recession by thestrong expectations for a continuation of an active interest rate rise as one of the countermeasures for inflation in the background of recent
robust economic indicators of the U.S. In addition, the market players recognized a sense of oil demand and supply relaxation, because Russia’s
crude oil production had not reduced in despite of setting the upper limit of Russia’s crude oil export price and policy of crude oil production
cut from March 2023. The March contract closed at $76.34/bbl down $2.15/bbl from the previous trading day.
On February 20, the market was closed due to President’s Day.
On February 21, the key contract turned down for the fifth straight trading day by the expectations of a continuation of interest rate
rise as one of the countermeasures for inflation. The U.S. Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) recorded above 50 for the first time in eightmonths. The U.S. economic indicators logged good performance. The market players recognized the robust growth of the U.S. economy. The
March contract closed at $76.16/bbl down $0.18/bbl from the previous trading day.
On February 22, the key contract turned down for the sixth straight trading day. The FRB (Federal Reserve Board) publishedminutes of meeting for the decision of interest rate raise by 0.25% on February 1. In addition, it was announced that all the members
unanimously recognized the need for a continuation of interest rate rise. The Eurostat announced that natural gas demand decreased by 20%
from August 2022 to January 2023 in Europe, which was another factor for oil price decline. The U.S. EIA (Energy Information Agency) would
announce the U.S. domestic inventory for crude oil and oil products on February 23 due to President’s Day. The April contract, which replace
the March contract as the key-front month contract, closed at $73.95/bbl down $2.41/bbl from the previous trading day.
The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for April delivery on the Tokyo market ranged from $82.40/bbl to $84.50/bbl on February
9 – February 15 week. It closed at $84.30/bbl on February 16, at $82.60/bbl on February 17, at $82.10/bbl on February 20, at $81.60/bbl on
February 21, at $81.00/bbl on February 22.
On the foreign exchange market in the February 9- February 15 week, the dollar moved within a range of 131.64 yen and 132.79
yen. It changed hands at 134.15 yen in late trading on February 16, at 134.40 yen on February 17, at 134.45 yen on February 20, at 134.32 yen
on February 21, at 134.90 yen on February 22.
According to preliminary 10-day trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on February 16, the average crude oil import
CIF price for Japan in the late January period stood at 71,576 yen/kl (kiloliter), down 1,766 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars,
the price was $87.12/bbl, down $0.81/bbl. The average exchange rate was 130.62 yen to the dollar. According to preliminary 10-day trade
statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on February 16, the average crude oil import CIF price for Japan in the January period stood at
73,234 yen/kl (kiloliter), down9,209 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars, the price was $88.14/bbl, down $6.85/bbl. The averageexchange rate was 132.09 yen to the dollar.
Japan’s average retail price on February 20 leveled off from a week earlier for gasoline, increased by 0.1 yen/l for diesel oil, andleveled off for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis. The gasoline price stopped decreasing for the first time in three weeks. Diesel oil priceincreased for the first time in three weeks. Kerosene price stopped decreasing for the first time in three weeks. The national average gasoline
price was 167.4 yen/l and mitigation measures against the extreme change in fuel oil were invoked again. The subsidy for the next week was
18.7 yen/l.
($/b)
From
Crude oilThis week

a weekearlier

Crude oil runs
Supply/ Topper capacity
Demand utilization rate

Crude oil inventories
Middle Eastern crude
oil (TOCOM)WTI crude oil(NYMEX)
Crude oil import CIF
price
Prices①Crude oil import
CIF price②Yen-dollar exchangerate
TTS exchange rate

From
a year earlier

140.0[NYMEX]WTI crude oil

130.0(1,000 kl)

2/12 ～ 2/18

3,059

▼

-114

▼

－

(%)

〃

82.5

▼

-3.1

→

－

(1,000 kl)

2/18

10,836

▲

983

▲

－

($/bbl)

2/20

80.82

▼

-1.95

▼

-7.9

($/bbl)

2/21

76.16

▼

-3.98

▼

-16.2

60.0

($/bbl)Ｌａｔｅ Ｊａｎ

87.12

▼

-0.81

▲

7.43

50.0

(yen/kl)〃

71,576▼-1,766▲

13,967(yen/dollar)〃

130.62▲2.00▼-15.69[TOCOM]MiddleEastern crude oil

123.70121.51

120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0

40.0

(yen/dollar)

2/20

135.45

▼

-2.67

30.0
20.0
2020.4.20 WTI ▲37.63

10.0▼-19.391

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022(￥/Ｌ)(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week

Gasolinea weekearlier

1,000

Imports〃n.a.

Supply/DemandShipments

〃

763

▼

-55

▲

－

Exports

〃

259

▲

147

▲

－

2/18

1,705

▼

-22

▼

－

2/14 ～ 2/20

71.6

▲

0.9

▼

-7.7

2/14 ～ 2/20

73.0

→

0.0

▼

-6.1

2/20

74.7

▲

1.1

▼

-3.5

2/20

167.4

→

0.0

▼

-4.6

Inventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▲

44

▲

n.a.

－

n.a.

(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)a weekearlier

Supply/DemandImports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

585

▼

-67

▲

－

Exports

〃

72

▼

-118

▼

－

2/18

1,300

▲

86

▲

－

average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-7

▲

n.a.

165.0

n.a.

74.4

▲

0.7

▼

-6.0

2/14 ～ 2/20

76.6

▲

0.2

▼

-8.1

2/20

－

2/20

147.6

－
0.1

12/20

1/18

2/20
2/16

(￥/Ｌ)

Diesel oil (retail)－2/14 ～ 2/20

▲

167.4

a year earlier

742

Gyoten (spot) [4-district

167.6

From

2/12 ～ 2/18

Inventories

170.0

160.0

From
This week

Production

175.0

160.0
11/21

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

Diesel oil

Gasoline (retail)a year earlier

2/12 ～ 2/18

Production

180.0

From

155.0

150.0
147.6
147.8
145.0

－
▼

-4.1

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

140.0

11/21

12/20

1/18

2/16
1/17
2/20

(￥/Ｌ)
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)

125.0

From
This week

Kerosenea weekearlier

2/12 ～ 2/18

275

Imports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

372

▼

-90

▼

－

Exports

〃

15

▼

-35

▲

－

2/18

1,462

▼

-112

▲

－

2/14 ～ 2/20

75.1

▲

0.6

▼

-5.2

2/14 ～ 2/20

75.5

▲

0.5

▼

-4.8

2/20

76.5

▼

-1.5

▼

-4.5

2/20

110.9

→

0.0

▼

-1.3

Production

Supply/DemandInventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-38

From
a year earlier

▼

n.a.

Kerosene (retail)

－

n.a.

120.0

115.0

111.2

110.9

110.0

105.0

11/21

12/20

1/18

2/20
2/16

2

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022■ Relevant Information
Overseas crude oil prices
1
On the crude oil futures market for this week (from February 16 to February 22), WTI end price logged $78.49/bbl on February 16
and turned down further consecutive trading days due to concerns about recession by the expectations for a continuation and prolongation of anactive interest rate rise in the background of the announcement of the robust U.S. economic indicators. WTI end price logged $73.95/bbl on
February 22.
The U.S. EIA (Energy Information Agency) would announce the U.S. domestic inventory for crude oil and oil products on February
23, one working day delay due to consecutive holidays.
According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of February 20 decreased by 1.1 cents per gallon from a weekearlier to $3.379/gal (120.8 yen/l), decreasing for the third straight week. The average U.S. retail price of diesel oil decreased by 6.8 cents per
gallon from a week earlier to $4.376/gal (156.4 yen/l), decreasing for the third straight week.
Baker Hughes reported on February 17 that the number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs decreased by two units from a week earlier
to 607 units, decreasing for the first time in two weeks.

2Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments

According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum
Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity in the February 12- February 18 week in 2023 stood at 169,000 barrels per day,increasing by 64,000 bpd from the previous week (total capacity
remained at 3,331,000 bpd).
Crude oil throughput in the week decreased by
114,000 kl from the previous week to 3,059,000 kl. From a year
earlier, it decreased by 73,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization
rate stood at 82.5%, down 3.1 points from the previous week andup 1.1 points from a year earlier.
Production increased from the previous week forgasoline and jet fuel and decreased for other petroleum products.
Output was up 4.6% for gasoline, up 2.0% for jet fuel, down
12.0% for kerosene, down 0.9% for diesel oil, down 4.2% forFuel Oil A, and down 14.8% for Fuel Oil C. Fuel Oil C imports inthe week totaled 6,000 kl, down 117,000 kl from the previous
week. Diesel oil exports aggregated 72,000 kl, down 118,000 kl
from the previous week.
Shipments (excluding imports) in the week decreased
from the previous week for all oil products. From a year earlier,
shipments expanded for gasoline and diesel oil and declined forother oil products. Gasoline shipments decreased by 6.7% fromthe previous week to 763,000 kl, decreasing for the first time in
two weeks. Shipments totaled 62,000 kl for jet fuel (down 33.1%
from the previous week), 372,000 kl for kerosene (down 19.4%

2

from the previous week), 585,000 kl for diesel oil (down 10.3% fromthe previous week), 262,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (down 8.4% from theprevious week), and 218,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (down 12.1% from theprevious week).

(Unit: 1,000 kl)
This week

Previous week

From
a week earlier(2/12 ～ 2/18)(2/5 ～ 2/11)

Gasoline

763

818

▼

-55

（-7%）

Jet fuel

62

92

▼

-30

（-33%）

Kerosene (heating

372

462

▼

-90

（-19%）

Diesel oil

585

652

▼

-67

（-10%）

Fuel oil A

262

286

▼

-24

（-8%）

Fuel Oil C

218

248

▼

-30

（-12%）

Total

2,262

2,558

▼

-296 （-12%）

Oil)This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production+ This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories)

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories

Inventories as of February 18 increased for diesel oil
and Fuel Oil A and decreased for other petroleum products. Froma year earlier, inventories decreased for gasoline and increased forother petroleum products.
Gasoline inventories totaled 1,705,000 kl, down
22,000 kl from a week earlier and down 47,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Kerosene inventories totaled 1,462,000 kl, down
112,000 kl from a week earlier and up 176,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,300,000 kl, up 86,000
kl from a week earlier and up 4,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 688,000 kl, up 4,000 kl
from a week earlier and up 16,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,712,000 kl, down
17,000 kl from a week earlier and up 75,000 kl from a year
earlier.

(Unit: 1,000 kl)
FromThis week

Previous week

(2/18)(2/11)

Gasoline

1,705

1,727

▼

-22 （-1%）

Jet fuel

736

788

▼

-52 （-7%）

Kerosene (heating

1,462

1,574

▼

-112 （-7%）

Diesel oil

1,300

1,214

▲

86

（7%）

Fuel oil A

688

684

▲

4

（1%）

Fuel Oil C

1,712

1,729

▼

-17 （-1%）

Total

7,603

7,716

▼

-113 （-1.5%）

Oil)a week earlier

3

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend

3

During February 14 – February 20, crude oil cost in yen increased by 1.5 yen/l from a week earlier with an increase in crude oil
price and the depreciation of the yen to the U.S. dollar.
For the next week of February 23– March 1, Motouri companies increased their real wholesale prices for gasoline, kerosene, anddiesel oil by 0.1 yen/l from a week earlier, because a subsidy of 18.7 yen/l from this week was added to an increase in the cost of 18.8 yen/lincluding the previous week’s subsidy of 17.3 yen/l.

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend

3

Spot petroleum products prices in the February 14–
February 20 week increased for all oil products in all trading except
for the decreased offshore kerosene price and the leveled off gasoline
futures price compared to the period of February 7– February 13.
The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore
rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, and Hanshin-- for February 14– February 20) increased by 0.9 yen/l from theprevious week for gasoline and increased by 0.6 yen/l for kerosene
and increased by 0.7 yen/l for diesel oil.
The average offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay
increased by 0.8 yen/l for gasoline, decreased by 0.1 yen/l forkerosene and increased by 0.4 yen/l for diesel oil on February 14–
February 20 week from the previous week. The key average futures
price leveled off for gasoline and increased by 0.5 yen/l for kerosene
and increased by 0.2 yen/l for diesel oil from a week earlier.

(RIM)(Unit: yen/l)[4-district

Spot
Pricesaverage lorry

This week

Previous week

From a weekrack price](2/14 ～ 2/20)(2/7 ～ 2/13)

earlier

Regular

71.6

70.7

▲

0.9

Kerosene

75.1

74.5

▲

0.6

Diesel oil

74.4

73.7

▲

0.7

This week

Previous week

From a week

[Average](2/14 ～ 2/20)(2/7 ～ 2/13)

earlier

Regular

73.0

73.0

→

0.0

Kerosene

75.5

75.0

▲

0.5

Diesel oil

76.6

76.4

▲

0.2

(TOCOM)(Unit: yen/l)[Front-monthcontract/closing
price]

FuturesPrice

Above prices are before tax.
Reference (February 14 - February 20 actual data)(Unit: yen/l)

Products

Spot

Futures

Average

Gasoline

0.9

0.0

0.4

Kerosene

0.6

0.5

0.5

Diesel oil

0.7

0.2

0.4

Fuel Oil A

0.6(Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price(Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin)
Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District

4

Retail prices of petroleum products in JapanThe average retail service station price as of February 20 leveled off from a week earlier at 167.4 yen/l for gasoline, increased by 0.1
yen/l to 147.6 yen/l for diesel oil and leveled off at 1,997 yen for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis (leveled off at 110.9 yen/l) from a weekearlier. The gasoline price stopped decreasing for the first time in three weeks. Diesel oil price increased for the first time in three weeks.
Kerosene price stopped decreasing for the first time in three weeks.
Gasoline prices increased in 18 prefectures, leveled off in five prefectures, and decreased in 24 prefectures. The lowest gasoline
price among the prefectures was 160.0 yen/l in Tokushima. The second lowest was 160.2 yen/l in Miyagi. The highest price was 181.3 yen/l in
Nagasaki. Aichi logged the largest price hike of 2.0 yen/l from the previous week. The price leveled off in Nagano and four other prefectures.
Kyoto logged the largest price fall of 0.8 yen/l. Retail gasoline price on the next price survey day February 27 is expected to level off or
fluctuate slightly from a week earlier.

(Unit: yen/l)(Published byANRE)[Weekly

This week

Previous week

(2/20)(2/13)

earlier

Regular

167.4

167.4

→

0.0

Kerosene

110.9

110.9

→

0.0 08/8/11 132.1

Diesel oil

147.6

147.5

▲

0.1

trend]

From a week

Latest high

08/8/4185.1

Nationwide average cash retail price(including consumption tax)

RetailPrice

Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations
have been covered.
Latest highs are highest levels since

08/8/4167.4

October 2003.

4

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022

Gasoline price trend(2022/12/5 ～190.0

2023/2/20)（￥/Ｌ ）

（￥/Ｌ)

105.0

Left scale: retail prices

100.0

180.0

95.0

Retail price

170.0

90.0
160.0

85.0

TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay

150.0

80.0

RIM (offshore barge)

140.0

75.0
130.0

70.0

RIM (onshore)
TOCOM/ futures, Chubu

120.0

65.0
Right scale: RIM and futures prices

2/13

60.0
2/20

TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu)

RIM (onshore)

110.0
12/5 12/12 12/19 12/26 1/10
Retail priceRIM (offshore barge)

1/16

1/23

TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay)

1/30

2/6

(Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax.
② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district .

5

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 45/2022■ Announcement
This report is available at the center’s website (https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/).
The next issue (No. 46 ｆor 2022) will be announced on March 10.

On use of this report

Weekly Oil Market Review

The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information(hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong
to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or
to third parties contributing the documents to this Center.
This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed,
duplicated or altered without approval by this Center.

In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum
products market trend study panel sponsored by thePetroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural
Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that theJapanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding
functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry inJapan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a
medium term as industry people deepen their understandingof the need for rational price recognition based on market
and price-finding functions to be established in the oil
industry and for business decisions based on recognition
under the principle of self-responsibility.”This Center has made the documents comprehensive but noguarantee is made as to accuracy or safety.

In response to the report, this Center has published theWeekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people,
business administrators (particularly service station
managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understandcrude oil and petroleum products supply and demand andprice trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations suchas the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren(Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005.

Sources of data provided in this report① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand](weekly PAJ report)
Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum productsupply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated
in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by thisCenter.
② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle
Eastern crude)
For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futurescontract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted.

For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle
Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. ＊”Secondmonth (next-month) contract”
Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average
price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphictransfer middle rate (TTM) released by the MUFG Bank isadopted as the foreign exchange rate.
The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominatedreference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average
crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance
trade statistics.
③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan]
Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between
Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers)
and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers).

Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in
April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive
consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market
prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014,
they modified the system further to give greater priority tocrude oil cost.
④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan](RIM gyoten)
Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorryrack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki,
Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIMIntelligence Co.

⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan](TOCOM)
Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily
closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are
adopted.
TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge
prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are theaverage lorry rack prices in the Chubu district.
⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly
trend survey)
Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations
subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (asreleased by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at
14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).

6
Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp