6/19/2015

Thematic Outline
Cambodia Education Development Trends
and Post‐2015 Priorities

Basic Education Trends
Education Financing
Basic Education Thematic Issues

Tsuyoshi Fukao
World Bank

Higher Education Trends and Issues
Post 2015 in Cambodia?

NET ENROLLMENT:
Improved across all grade levels•Basic Education Trends% students at appropriate
grade•Education Financing•Basic Education Thematic Issues•Higher Education Trends and Issues•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

80%

Net Enrollment rate by year60%
2004 Net

2011 Net

40%
20%
0%
12345Year in primary

6123456Year in secondary

Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 201316/19/2015

ENROLLMENT INEQUALITIES:
Persistent differences across upper/lower quintiles

Gender Gap:
Decreases and eventually disappears over time98765432
10‐1School age
Male% of 15‐20 years old with completed
grades in 2011

Female

1994

1989

1984

1979

1974

1969

1964

1959

1954

1949

1944

1939

1934

1929

1924

1919

GAP

Birth year
Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Lowest quintile

0%
12

3

Highest quintile

45
Grade completed

678

Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013NEED FOR GREATER RESOURCES:•Basic Education Trends

Challenges of access and teaching can only be met
with greater outlays•Education Financing•Basic Education Thematic Issues•Higher Education Trends and Issues•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

2

6/19/2015

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING:
Large gaps between upper/lower quintiles

LOW PUBLIC SPENDING:
Higher economic burden for the poor
“Economicburden” =share ofhouseholdspending 6.0%
which
goes toward
5.0%
education

Poorest quintile’s private spending on education as shareof total spending(households with positive education spending)

5.7%

4.0%

Source: IFAPER, 2012

3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Myanmar2009

Vietnam2010

Vietnam
2004

Cambodia

Source: World Bank calculations using household survey data from selected countries.

9Thai 2009 Thai 1994 Laos 2008

EFFICIENT SPENDING:
Ministry of Education greatly underspent its budget

TOTAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING = 2.5% of GDP:
Greater than public education expenditure

Annual Budget Usage Rate
110.0%
105.0%↑ Over-spent

Poorest Q
2Q

100.0%↓ Under-spent

95.0%
90.0%

3Q
4Q

85.0%
80.0%
MoEYS

NationalDefence

HealthInterior Social Affairs Commerce Labour and(Security)
VT

Richest Q

Source: IFAPER, 2012

Observation: National Defense and Social Affairs over-spent,
while other Ministries under-spent. MoEYS had the lowest
rate of budget expenditure amongst them.

3

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UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATIONBUDGET:
70% marked for renumeration

UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATIONBUDGET

MOEYS RECURRENT BUDGET:
Downward trend until 2013, up slightly in 2014
19.2

1918.1

18.5
18•Education Financing•Basic Education
Thematic Issues

2019.5•Basic Education Trends•Higher Education Trends and Issues

18.3•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

17.5
17

17.03

16.5

16.4

16.2
16.6

16

15.9

Two Key Issues:

15.5

15.5

1. High Rates of Dropout and Repetition

15
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2. Shortage of Qualified Teachers

Source: MEF

4

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Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:
Stubbornly high

HIGH DROP‐OUT AND
REPETITION

Source: EMIS/ADB

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:

Why so many? = Economic Reasons and ‘Overaged’

Why so many ‘overaged’?

-Half of those who dropped out did so for economic reasonsReason 1: Late entry to Grade 1-Many drop-outs are ‘overaged’ (close to market age)5

6/19/2015

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:

Effective Interventions:

Why so many ‘overaged’?

What do these look like?

Reason 2: High Repetition and drop-out during primary High Dropout at LS‐ Scholarship for poor students

cycle, particularly in the early grades.
35
30.9

30

25
22
20

19.8

19.6

15

18.3

2011-201217.3

2007-200814.4

 Late entry to Grade 1‐ Expansion of ECE (late entry )‐ Enrolment campaign (late entry)

14.3
11.3

1011.410.9

High repetition/drop‐out in Grade 1‐2‐ Early Grade Reading program

7.8
50
Grade 1

Grade 2

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

Grade 6

Source: EMIS/MoEYS

Effective Interventions:
What do these look like?
CCT

High Drop Out at LS

SHORTAGE OFQUALIFIED TEACHERSWHY?
HH economicreasons???

WHY?

WHY?
CCT
EGRA

Unaffordable education
private cost

High repetition inprimary cycle

WHY?
Low teacher
capacity

WHY?

school age = working age

OVER AGE Enrolment

WHY?

ECE

Late entry to G1
Enrolment
Campaign6

6/19/2015

Shortage of Qualified Teachers:High Pupil‐Teacher Ratio

Shortage of Qualified Teachers:
Who are the teachers?
Primary teachers
education level

Non-US
40%

Secondary teachers
education level
Non-US
20%

US
holder60%

All teachers
genderPrimary teachers
age30<40%
USholder80%

All School Directors
gender<30
60%

Teachers shift

Female
10%

Femal
e47%

Double25%
Male53%
Male90%

Shortage of Qualified Teachers:
How to attract, motivate, and retain high quality?

Single75%•Basic Education Trends•Education Financing•Basic Education Thematic Issues•Higher Education
Trends and Issues•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

76/19/2015

ENROLLEMENT AT HEIS:
Rapid increase in student numbers not slowing

CHOICE OF MAJOR:
HALF OF STUDENTS MAJOR IN BUSINESSADMINISTRATIONEXPANSION OF HEIS:Over the past 15 years, more than 60 HEIs establishedQUALITY:
HEIs not producing graduates with appropriate skills
What are the underlying causes of your firm’s skills shortages?
Difficult to attract people to this industry5%

Not enough university graduates

12%

Others16%

Firms cannot afford to pay salaries that the market
demands

23%

Difficult to train or up‐skill existing staff

31%

Not enough vocational training graduates

38%

Vocational training graduates do not have the rightskills

62%

University graduates do not have the right skills

73%
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Source: Survey by HRINC Cambodia, March 201186/19/2015

UNDER CONSTRUCTION:
Key institutions still need to be developed•Basic Education Trends•Education Financing•Basic Education Thematic Issues
Vision2030•Higher Education Trends and Issues•Post 2015 inCambodia?

ACC

Source: SABER 2013

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
2015 as a transition point

Post 2015 Priorities:
ECE/Skills and Results Focus
More resource to ECCD and Skill oriented field (Secondary/Tertiary/TVET)

Improve implementation and results focus

2015

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Why ECCD and Tertiary?

:To raise employability

WHY EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION?:
Brain Growth versus Rates of Return
Preschool Programs

Brain Growth

Schooling

Job Training

Rates of Return to Investment in
Human Capital

Preschool

Post SchoolSchool0Age

Source: Heckman & Carneiro Human Social Policy, 2003, RAND, Benefits and Costs of Early-Childhood Interventions, A Documented Briefing,
Lynn A. Karoly, Susan S. Everingham, Jill Hoube, Rebecca Kilburn, C. Peter Rydell, Matthew Sanders, Peter W. Greenwood, April, 1997

(ASEAN):
Preparing Students for Regional
Mobility/Integration

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:
Gaps between Ideal/Real Engineering

The ideal situation

 Nursing service
 Architectural services
 Surveying qualification
 Medical practitioners
 Dental practitioners
 Accountancy

Policy framework
Government
program
Sector strategies

Budgetallocation

Outturn
Timelydisbursementsin accordancewith establishedpolicies andpriorities

Outputs

ImpactOutcomes40

 Tourism Professions

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IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:
Gaps between Ideal/RealIMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:
Budget should be results based

Outturn
Timelydisbursementsin accordancewith establishedpolicies andpriorities(ii) Inclusion of implementerin full budget formulation

Sector strategies

Outputs

ImpactOutcomes

Policy framework
Government
program

Budgetallocation

Sector strategies

Sector strategies

Budgetallocation

ImpactOutcomes

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:
Higher transparency and accountability for max. impact(vi) Increase transparency andaccountability at school level for higher
impact (e.g. community involvement)(iii) Shorter process of budget
execution for generating
expected output on time
Outputs(iv) Regular budget
monitoring and fed back into
budget cycle

ImpactOutcomes

Policy framework
Government
program
Sector strategies

Budgetallocation

Outturn
Timelydisbursementsin accordancewith establishedpolicies andpriorities

Outputs

ImpactOutcomes(v) Strengthen service delivery system atschool level (e.g. revise incentive structure)

43

Policy framework
Government
program

Outturn
Timelydisbursementsin accordancewith establishedpolicies andpriorities

Outputs(i) Result Based Planningand Budgeting(including capitalbudget)

41

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:
Timely disbursement to ensure expected outcome

Outturn
Timelydisbursementsin accordancewith establishedpolicies andpriorities

42

Budgetallocation

44

Policy framework
Government
program11

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IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:
Shortage of textbooks, 2010‐2011

SOCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY:
Improves implementation

2010-11 NEW
2010-11 NEW

117.4%

90.3%

86.9%

82.6%

86.2%

54.2%

53.6%
42.5%

42.0%
35.4%

G1

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:
Shortage of textbooks, 2011‐2012

G2G3

G40.0%

0.0%

G5

G60.0%
G7G8G9G10G11G12Total

SPENDING MATTERS … BUT SPENDING WISELY MATTERS MORE

2011-12 New Textbooks Availability Rate
2011-12 NEW
111.8%

107.4%
102.5%
94.1%

90.3%

106.6%

94.1%

Investing on inputs
alone has impact ..…
but only goes so far
73.6%

65.4%

47.4%
41.5%

46.0%

Promoting good
governance,
incentives andaccountability reforms
can bring more “bangfor buck”

0.0%
G2

G3G4G5G6G7G8G9G10G11G12Total48G112

6/19/2015

POST 2015 IN
CAMBODIA

We’ve seen….

-A transition point to the ESP 2014-18

 Basic Education Trends-Shift from primary to ECCD and Skill oriented fields-Greater focus on implementation and results

 Education Financing-(Personally) More resource on education for disabledchildren and those who are marginalized (follow-up
agenda to EFA) Basic Education Thematic Issues
 Higher Education Trends and Issues
 Post 2015 in Cambodia?

AND
However, Cambodia….

Ranks 1st (in East Asia) in improvement of Human Development Index
over a decade …

Ranks 4th in the world in poverty reduction over 5 years% change 2000‐2010
20%
18%

Ranks 5th in the world in MDG progress

18%
16%

16%

16%

China

Lao

15%

14%
12%

12%
10%
8%

7%

6%
4%
2%
0%
World

Vietnam

EAP

Cambodia13

6/19/2015

THANK YOU
Email: tfukao@worldbank.org

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