Transformation towards net zero andchallenges for just transition
HLPF 2021 High-level Side Event
Carbon Neutrality & Social Transformation:
Are We on Track to Arrive at a Justice-based Transition?
July 6, 2021
Yukari TAKAMURA（The University of Tokyo）
E-mail: yukari.takamura@ifi.u-tokyo.ac.jp
1

Towards climate neutrality (net zero) by
2050• Paris Agreement (2015)– Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well
below 2 ℃ and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels (Art. 2.1 (a))– “Net zero emission” “De-carbonization” in the second half of
this century (Art. 4.1)

• More than 120 countries and EU including all G7 countries
have now pledged to reduce emission to net zero by 2050.
• Many countries update their 2030 climate target upward inline with net zero by 2050.

2

Number of national net zero pledges andshare of global CO2 emissions covered

Source：IEA, 2021

3

Coverage of announced national net zeropledges

Source：IEA 2021

4

Updated 2030 NDCs
Base
Year

Updated NDCPrevious NDC

Notes

US

2005

50-52%

26-28%

EU1990

At least 55%

At least 40%

Japan

2013

46-50％

26%

China

ー

Improve
Emission
intensity /GDPby at 65%

Improve
Emission
intensity /GDPby 60-65%

Peak out CO2 emission aroundin 2030; Share of Non fossil
fuel in primary energy
consumption: 25％

India

ー

ー

Improve
Emission
intensity /GDPby 33-35%

40% of cumulative power
installed capacity from nonfossil fuel energy

Brazil

2025

ー

37%

43% in 2030 (indicative)South
Africa

2025
-30

ー

398 - 614 Mt
CO2–eqPeak out before 2025
5

Climate policy (EU, UK, US, China)
EU・Dec 2019： ”European Green Deal”
as strategy of transformation to sustainable society and growth strategy“Climate neutrality by 2050)”
Proposal for carbon border adjustment
・May 2020年： “Green Recovery”
・2030 NDC：aiming to reduce GHG emission by at least 55% below 1990

UK

・Hosting G7 and COP26
・2030 NDC：raise the level of ambition from 53% to 68 reduction below 1990
・Climate Change Act （amended June 2019） providing for net zero emission by 2050
・Oblige a part of listed companies to undertake climate related disclosure (Comply or
Explain) in line with TCFD by 2020

US・20 January 2021: Re-ratification of the Paris Agreement (entered into force on 19 Feb)
・Climate policy of Biden administration: Net zero emission by 2050. Carbon freeelectricity by 2035. 2 trillion dollars of investment in infrastructure such as in green
energy. Possibility of carbon border adjustment

China・Top 1 of installed renewable capacity and of renewable power generated. Strategic
focus on hydrogen and fuel cell industries
・Peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 (22 Sept 2020)
・Reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level;- Increase non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%;
- Increase wind and solar power generation capacity to at least 1,200 GW.

6

Transition requires mitigation andinvestments• "Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5 degreewith no or limited overshoot would require rapid
and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban
and infrastructure (including transport andbuildings), and industrial systems. These systems
transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale,but not necessarily in terms of speed, and imply
deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide
portfolio of mitigation options and a significant
upscaling of investments in those options." (IPCC,
2018)7

Key milestones in thepathway to net zero
Source：IEA 2021

8

Global employment in energy supply
in the net zero pathway, 2019-2030

Source：IEA 2021

9

Business taking the lead
• Non state actors, especially businesses taking
the lead.
• Why?
– Aware of increasing risk of climate impacts– Moves towards decarbonizing supply chain– Pressures from financial institutions and investors(shareholders).
– Changing markets– Demand side seeks and claims clean/renewableenergy.
10

Science Based Target (SBTs)• Initiative created by CDP, UN Global Compact, WRI, andWWF• Targets adopted by companies to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions are certified as “science-based” if they arein line with the level of de-carbonization required to keep
global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius
compared to pre- industrial temperatures.
• 1577 companies have committed to having such targets,
796 of which have set certified science-based targets (633of which have set 1.5 degrees goal) (as of 5 July 2021)
Ø https://sciencebasedtargets.org

11

RE100: 319 companies to go'100% renewable’.
（July 2021）

12

Asahi Carbon Zero
Asahi Group Holdings
2050
2030

Aiming to achieve GHG net zero emission
温室効果ガス排出量「ゼロ」をめざす
Scope 1 & 2 emission
50％ reduction below 2019
Scope 3 emission

30% reduction below 2015

・Implementing effective sustainable supply chain managementØ Asahi Group Basic Procurement Policies
Ø CSR Principles for Asahi Group Suppliers• Main Results for FY2017
Ø A total of 108 suppliers participated in the Asahi Group Basic Procurement Policy
Workshop, in which we explain the Asahi Group's policies to the management of
our suppliers.
Ø A total of 45 suppliers participated in QA Meetings for Asahi Group suppliers.
Ø An on-site survey based on the responses to the Supplier CSR Survey was
conducted at 13 suppliers.
13Ø Supplier evaluations (48 ingredient suppliers and 55 material suppliers)

Microsoft: “Climate Moonshot”（16 January 2020）••••

Carbon negative by 2030
Remove our historical carbon
emission by 2050
$1 billion climate innovation fund
Scope 1 and 2 emissions to nearzero by the middle of this decade– By 2025, shift to 100 percent
supply of renewable energy.

•

Reduce scope 3 emissions by
more than half by 2030 throughnew steps– By July of 2021, MS will begin to
implement new procurement
processes and tools to enable andincentivize our suppliers to reduce
their scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.

https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbonnegative-by-2030/
14Apple: carbon neutral 2030
（16 July 2020）• Apple commits to be 100％carbon neutral for its supply
chain and products– Low carbon product design– Energy efficiency– Renewable energy– Process and material
innovations– Carbon removal• Already 100％ renewableenergy for its operations• Focusing on creating new
projects and moving its
entire supply chain to clean
power.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/20
20/07/apple-commits-to-be-100percent-carbon-neutral-for-its-supplychain-and-products-by-2030/
15

Apple：Supplier Clean Energy Program••••

Launched October 20152020 goal： 4GW additional clean energy
109 manufacturing partners in 24 countries have committed to 100 percent renewable energy forApple production (as of March 2021) = equivalent to 8 GW
Japanese companies already committing themselves to 100% renewable for Apple.
––

Dexerials Corporation, IBIDEN Co., Keiwa Incorporated, Murata Manufacturing Co., Nidec, Nitto Denko
Corporation, Seiko Advance Ltd., Sony Corporation, Taiyo Holdings Co., Ltd., Tsujiden Company Limited,
3M company, Pegatron,

16

Financial institution and investors arechanging and change business behavior• UNPRI (Principles for Responsible Investment) and ESG
investing• Request companies to undertake disclosure of climate
related risk, covering the whole supply chain– CDP (previously, Carbon Disclosure Project)– Recommendations by Task Force on Climate-related Financial
Disclosures（TCFD）（June 2017）• “Engagement, Voting and Divestment”– For instance, Norwegian Government Pension Fund (with about
One trillion US dollar) has made divestment (about 8 billion US
dollar) from 122 companies, more than 30% of business ofwhich depends on coal exploitation and power generation (since
2016)– Engagement: Climate Action 100+
– Revision of loan policy for new coal fired plants
17

TCFD: Financial impact of climate
related risks and opportunities

18

Global Power Generation Mix（Bloomberg NEF, 2020）
Unprecedented energy shift to renewables has been taking place.
Renewables will amount to 69% and fossil fuels will decline to 24% by 2050.

Source: BloombergNEF, 202019

Source：Bloomberg NEF, 2021

20

Energy Transition Investment
Since 2014, more than 300 billion US $ has been invested in clean energy.
More than twice than investment in coal and gas (around $130 billion).
Source: BloombergNEF 2021
21

3D : Decarbonization, Decentralization and Digitalization
Innovation progresses across the sectors (through sector coupling)

Source: IRENA, 201722

Annual rate of change in world GDP
1990-2021

23

2020年は史上最大の伸び

Source：IEA, 2021

24

Transformation towards net zero is needed
and beneficial• In particular developing countries are more
vulnerable to and hit the most by adverse
impacts of climate change.
• Clean energy transition would provide
multiple benefits.
• Some regions and some job markets may be
more affected by transition to net zero.

25

Climate impacts in Asia
（IPCC, 2014）
•
•
•
•

•
•
•

Warming trends and increasing temperature extremes have been
observed across most of the Asian region over the past century.
Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region
as a result of increased water demand and lack of good management.
The impacts of climate change on food production and food security in
Asia will vary by region, with many regions to experience a decline inproductivity.
Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have responded to recent climatechange with shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and the distributionsof plant species, and with permafrost degradation, and the projectedchanges in climate during the 21st century will increase these impacts.
Coastal and marine systems in Asia are under increasing stress from bothclimatic and non-climatic drivers.
Multiple stresses caused by rapid urbanization, industrialization, andeconomic development will be compounded by climate change.
Extreme climate events will have an increasing impact on human health,security, livelihoods, and poverty, with the type and magnitude of impact
varying across Asia.
26

Energy transition will enhance
reduction of air pollution
各国目標実施シナリオ

パリ協定長期目標シナリオ

Source：IEA, 201927

Multiple benefits of SD Scenario
各国目標実施シナリオ

パリ協定長期目標シナリオ

Source：IEA, 201928

Impacts of clean energy transition
on international relations

Source: IRENA, 201929

Job losses in the fossil-fuel sector(IRENA, 2017)• Rising automation in extraction, overcapacity,
industry consolidation, regional shifts, and thesubstitution of coal by natural gas in the power
sector are resulting in job losses in the fossil-fuelsector in some countries.
• Moreover, climate policies and the rise ofrenewable energy may add pressure on the
sector.
• In some power markets, the increased integrationof variable renewable energy in the grid isalready creating financial issues for incumbent
fossil fuel based generator.
30

Employment in the coal industry (1)• Employment in the coal industry is decreasing
due to several factors such as power plants
closing, over capacity and improved mining
technologies.
• China produces nearly half the world’s coal, but
excess supply and a slowing economy have led
the government to plan closing of 5,600 mines(Reuters, 2016). This may lead to the loss of 1.3
million coal mining jobs, or 20% of the total
workforce in the Chinese coal sector(Yan, 2016).
31

Employment in the coal industry (2)• In India, employment at Coal India, the world’s
largest coal producer, has fallen 36%, from
511,000 workers in 2002/03 to 326,000 in
2015/16 (Statista, 2017).
• Coal production among EU countries has beenon the decline for 30 years. German coalmining employment, for example, is down toabout 30,000 jobs, a tenth of the number
three decades ago (Statistik der
Kohlewirtschaft, 2016).

32

Employment in the coal industry (3)• In the United States, employment in coal has
declined from 174,000 to 55,000 in the last 30
years (FRED, 2016).

33

US Average numbers by mine type2008-2015

The average number of employees at U.S. coal mines decreased 12.0%
to 65,971 employees, the lowest on record since 1978.

Source：US Energy Information Agency, 201734

Key for just transition (1)• Learn and share lessons from experiences so far:

– Experience from energy transition from coal to other energy
sources.
– Experience from information technology induced
transformation• For “just transition”, appropriate policies and measures toprepare for transformations of industrial structure andlabor market structure and to enhance a fair transition arenecessary.
• Clear long-term vision/goal towards a decarbonized andsustainable development allows identify challenges for justtransition.
• Transition planning/strategy integrate in particular strategy
regarding to industrial structure and labor market.
35

Key for just transition (2)• Policies and measures are needed in order to inducecompanies (employers) to be prepared for suchtransformation and to be more climate risk proof.
– Financial institutions and investors are moving in the same
direction.
– Assistance for small and medium-sized companies• Respect ownership, due process, and inclusive andhuman rights based transformation.
• Provides an adequate security (safe net policy).
• For such purposes, assistance from the UN, multilateraland bilateral assistance are much more needed fordeveloping countries due to COVID-19 impacts.
36

TCFD
• On June 2017, the Task Force on Climate-related
Financial Disclosures (TFCD) established by Financial
Stability Board (FSB) released its final report.
• Letter from Michael R. Bloomberg (Chair of the TCFD)
to Mark Carney (Chairman of the FSB)
– ‘…recommendations for helping businesses disclose
climate-related financial risks and opportunities within thecontext of their existing disclosure requirements’.
– ‘…without effective disclosure of these risks, the financial
impacts of climate change may not be correctly priced –and as the costs eventually become clearer, the potential
for rapid adjustments could have destabilizing effects onmarkets’.
– ‘…That will lead to smarter, more efficient allocation ofcapital, and speed the transition to a low-carbon
economy’.

37

Inclusive and right-basedtransformation• Such transformation shall be inclusive and on the human rights
basis so that no one would be marginalized/ left behind.

– Increase in unemployment could make lose support for transformative
policies as well as policy makers so that it would be possible to preventa smooth and effective transformation.
– More fundamentally, transformation for what?
– Our vision in the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”• The interlinkages and integrated nature of the Sustainable Development Goals
are of crucial importance in ensuring that the purpose of the new Agenda isrealized. If we realize our ambitions across the full extent of the Agenda, thelives of all will be profoundly improved and our world will be transformed forthe better.
• “We envisage a world of universal respect for human rights and humandignity, the rule of law, justice, equality and non-discrimination; of respect for
race, ethnicity and cultural diversity; and of equal opportunity permitting thefull realization of human potential and contributing to shared prosperity.”• “We envisage a world in which every country enjoys sustained, inclusive andsustainable economic growth and decent work for all. “38Thank you for your attention!
Yukari TAKAMURA
E-mail: yukari.takamura@ifi.u-tokyo.ac.jp

39