GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN AFRICA
AND ASIA FROM A COMPARATIVEPERSPECTIVE:
The Strategic Role of Indian OceanZone
Hery RAMIARISON, Ph.D
UNIVERISTY OF ANTANANARIVO
MADAGASCAR
1

PLAN
I. Overview of Current GeopoliticalRisks
II.Building Peace: Asia Vs Africa
 Similarity during the Post-Colonial Period Asia: Breaking away from post-colonial

status quo Africa: Continued post-colonial status quo

III. Mitigating Geopolitical risks:Indian Ocean Zone2

I- OVERVIEW OF CURRENTGEOPOLITICAL RISKS
New form of geopolitical risk:(1) born from within any country due to raisingand globalized anti-status quo (anti-elitism,anti-establishment) sentiment;(2) and contagious (Poor countries  Richcountries; RichRich; PoorPoor)• New Nature of the conflicts: Terror attack,guerilla warefare, sudden attack and high risk of useof cheap WMDs
• Increasing anti-status quo (anti-elitism, antiestablishment) movements worldwide,
Especially in Africa and Middle East•3

I-OVERVIEEW OF CURRENTGEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Major and serious threat to the dynamism ofworld prosperity and global peace:(1) Huge economic potential in Africa will remain
unexploited as fast growing economies in Asia will
delay the exploration of new growth opportunities(2) Poorly governed Africa with its young population
is of high political risk, favorable ground for any kindof trafficking, growth of extremism, platform
for worldwide terror attacks• String of Pearls: Growing Chinese influence in theIndo-Pacific ocean could threaten peace•4II- BUILDING PEACE:
Asia Vs Africa
Similar pattern of political risks between Asia
and Africa in the early post colonial period(1) Less developed countries: low per capita income,weak social development, weak institutions, highinequality(2) Resources rich, less diversified economy andstructured on Rent-seeking activities dominated by few
business elites(3) Discrepancy of interests between elites andcitizens(4) Continued influent role of foreign power inmaintaining the status quo: Securing essential raw
materials, fostering close relations with political elites
5by supporting the economic bases of their regimes•II- BUILDING PEACE:
Asia Vs Africa(5) Autocratic regimes(6) Raising anti-neocolonial sentiments  growing
anti-elites, anti-establishment, anti-political elites
protests, within an international environment governedby the cold war(7) Battle field of the cold war: confrontation
between Rival ethnic and political factions, social
conflict and societal warfare(8) Immediate needs to build peace in the region foreconomic prosperity

Lesson: (Armed conflicts + Instability) ==>devastated economies, divided societies, Traumatized
populations

6II- BUILDING PEACE:
Asia Vs Africa
Peace building actions were more successful inAsia whereas political risks are higher in Africa
making it more instable and conflict-prone thanAsia
Asia’s success in breaking away from postcolonial status quo
Africa still trapped in post-colonial status quo

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ASIA: BREAKING AWAY FROMSTATUS QUO(1) Dual Track Development Strategy: Successful

economic policies leading to structuraltransformation and economic diversification; andEffective social policies to cope with problems
associated with rapid eco. growth  Politicalstability : A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE(2) Good institutions, relatively good governance andsuccessful transition into democratic regime(3) Business and political elites pro-development(4) Emerging economy status and reduced influence offoreign power(5) Low unemployment rate and more equal society
8ASIA: BREAKING AWAY FROMSTATUS QUO
6)Leading role of Japan whose economic prosperity
is closely linked to regional peace: Japan’s courage
to break up with status quo in its relation with theregion, to establish a new attitude and mutual trust
between the region and Japan in August 1977Fukuda doctrine); The new Asian Industries
Development plan and the Japan-Asia Development
Fund; Trinity-type economic cooperation== > “HAPPY MARIAGE”
 Peace building: more by economic means Economic prosperity, less social conflicts,
political stability, relatively less anti-status
quo sentiments

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ASIA: BREAKING AWAY FROMSTATUS QUO

10ASIA: BREAKING AWAY FROMSTATUS QUOAnnual flows of net disbursements ODA

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ASIA: BREAKING AWAY FROMSTATUS QUO
Fragility: Asia Vs Africa

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AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUO
1. Dominating position of traditional business elite andpolitical elite (whose interests are against the wishes ofthe vast majority)
2. Rent seeking activities and denied access toeconomic opportunities by the vast majority
3. Strong influence of former colonial power andinternational community, Autocratic regime,
4. Weak institutions, Divided societies, Desperate youth
5. Pervasive Corruption, bad governance, aiddependency
6. Policy failures (Economic and Social) == > social
exclusion, Political instability. VICIOUS CIRCLE
7. Peace building: more by military means and by violent
repression; ODA essentially geared toward BHN and13
humanitarian actions

CHINESE EXPANSION PRESERVINGTHE STATUS QUOAfrica is vital for China: Vital resources, Trade,
Investment and Defense actions
Gradually becoming first economic partner
Johannesburg summit: Some figures
2014
2020
Trade (Billion US$)220
400
Inv. (Billion US$)
32.4
100
ODA (Billion US$)   35  Chinese ODA is more accessible to Africa than
DAC’s ODA, in terms of rules and procedures
Chinese FDI is not bound to compliancerequirement as DAC’s (ex case of Soalala Iron)14

CHINESE EXPANSION PRESERVINGTHE STATUS QUONeed to relocate investment involving 80
millions workers in the next decade6 Industrial Zones has been establishedChinese FDI is not bound to compliancerequirement as DAC’s (ex case of Soalala Iron)
Cultural expansionism: Confucius Institutes
across the continent (46 as in 2014)
Maritime silk road with focus on Port
infrastructures===> HAPPY MARIAGE?

Chinese involvement in unlawful andunregulated activities reinforced the elite
power, the polarization of the countries, badgovernance and corruption == > Instability15

AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUOLong-standing rulers in Africa whose exit could
threaten stabilityYear1979 1982 1986 1987 1989 1990
Angola Cameroon Uganda Zimbabwe Soudan ChadCountry
Equ.Guinea
YearCountry

2005
Tanzania
Togo
Burundi2006
Benin
Liberia

2007
2008
Sierra Leone Botwana

1993 1997 1999 2000 2001
Eritrea Congo Djibouti Rwanda DR Congo

2009
2010
2011
2012
South Africa Ivory Coast Cap Verde Senegal
Gabon
Guinea
Sao Tome Ghana
Mauritania
Niger
Comoros
South Sudan

2013
Kenya
Mali
Ethiopia

2014
2015
Malawi
Mauritius
Madagascar Namibia
Guinea Bissau MozambiqueZambiaLesothoNigeria
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AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUODEMOCRACY INDEX (Source: Rabo Research 2015)17

AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUO
Economic stagnation amid growing ODA, deep poverty,
growing social conflicts, high fragility index, continued
stronger anti-status quo sentiments
Annual flows of net disbursements ODA

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AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUOAnnual flows of net disbursements ODA

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AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUO

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AFRICA’S CONTINUED STATUS QUOState Fragility Index (Source: Rabo Research 2015)

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MADAGASCAR

1979: Highesteco.growth
9.3%First DvptPlanPromisingoutcomeHigh integration to theworld economy(Trade/GDP)EPZ Policy

Trinity:
Stabilize, Libéralize,Privatize

22MADAGASCAR
Political risk factors:
 Ineffective economic and social policies: Highpoverty rate (92%), inequality, etc…
Lack of income opportunities: Low educational
level of workforce (75% are under primary),
Manufacturing = 15% of GDP, Informal sector =90% of total employment, low rank in doingbusiness(167th/190)
Corruption (145th / 160): Citizens’ distrust topolitical leaders and by extension to the wholepolitical system  Weak state legitimacy whose
actions are felt as irrelevant to citizens’ livesDepletion of natural resources: Rosewood, Mine
Risks of youth radicalization: 2000 mosks project23

MADAGASCAR
Chinese expansion within the framework ofJohannesburg summit: “Access to vital
resources and market”
Confucius Institute, mining concession, agribusiness,trading, Investment, various projects are underway(highway, 4 Economic Special Zones, String of pearls or
maritime silk road )MADAGASCARGrowing anti-Chinese sentiments:

Chinese businessmen are involved in unlawful andunregulated activities, and are perceived as inconnivance with elites and locals in exploitativeventures. (Ex: Land grabbing, Rosewood traffic,Environment issues, etc…)

MADAGASCARGrowing anti-Chinese sentiments

MADAGASCARGrowing anti-Chinese sentiments:

MADAGASCARGrowing anti-Chinese sentiments:

III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE•

Immediate need to reduce geopolitical risks
in Africa, How?  by economic prosperity
and inclusive growth (economic means, notmilitary)•Africa is vital for Asia’s growth momentum
and to escape from “Middle income Trap”
Needs to exploit Africa’s potential : Naturalresources and Market•

Difficulties: (1) Huge Distance between thetwo regions: Geographical & Culture, (2)Chinese expansion29

III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE•

Solution: Needs to connect the 2 Regions== > Strategic Importance of the “INDIAN
OCEAN”== >Ensuring Free, secured andopened Indian Ocean Zone

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III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE
1. Hub of intense global activity: 1/5 of worldenergy supply, important route for Asian
exports to Europe, Middle East and Africa,

31III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE
2. Strategic significance of Madagascar andother islands: Proximity to important searoutes and well developed ports32III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE33

III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE
3. Hub of global terrorism, piracy, smugglingof drugs, weapons, human trafficking

34III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE35

III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE
4. Chinese expansion and ambition: String ofpearls, maritime silk road36

III- INDIAN OCEAN ZONE
5. Opportunities:
 Growing anti-Chinese sentiment, France’s presence and networks
 East Asian values (Freedom, Rule of Law,Accountability, Market Economy) as Vehicule ofchange and to break away from the status quo
 Efficient use of ODA and FDI in the sense ofproviding equal opportunity for all (not to benefitonly elites)  learning from Japanese experiencein Far East Asia.
 Simplified ODA allocation rule and procedure
Possibility of a Happy Mariage?

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CONCLUSION Africa: Huge economic potential but Highpolitical risk == > threat for itself and forthe global prosperity Asia: Fast growing and relatively stable;
Middle income trap == > need Africa as
new market and as source of raw materials
and rare metals for to internalize skills,
technology and innovation
 Emerging Asian countries: Opportunity forlearning, growth and exports for Africa
Achieving political stability Distance is obstacle to complementarity
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CONCLUSION Africa: Huge economic potential but Highpolitical risk == > threat for itself and forthe global prosperity Asia: Fast growing and relatively stable;
Middle income trap == > need Africa as
new market and as source of raw materials
and rare metals for to internalize skills,
technology and innovation
 Emerging Asian countries: Opportunity forlearning, growth and exports for Africa
Achieving political stability
 Opened, secured and free IOZ is importantto achieve the double targets of economic
prosperity and stability in both regions
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