Techniques of Precipitation Analysis and Prediction for High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts
The Japan Meteorological Agency*

Abstract
High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts (HRPNs) – a type of close-up high-precision precipitation
analysis and prediction – were introduced in 2014 primarily to support the observation and predictionof localized heavy rain. As such rainfall events caused by cumulonimbus clouds are generally
short-term phenomena, HRPNs involve both extrapolation and spatially three-dimensional forecastingfor heavy rain areas. These techniques enable practical prediction of rapidly developing heavy rainfall
events.
This paper describes the techniques used for precipitation analysis and prediction in HRPN
generation as described in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Weather Forecast Training Textbook (inJapanese).

1. Introduction
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) works to enhance capacity for the observation andprediction of localized heavy rainfall using high-precision radar observation data. The Agency
upgraded the data processing systems of all its radar sites in Japan and installed its High-resolution
Precipitation Prediction System in FY 2012 and 2013. These enhancements helped JMA to develop
High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts, (HRPNs), which support close-up high-precision
precipitation analysis and prediction. HRPNs involve the use of an X-band multi-parameter radarobservation system (referred to here simply as X-band) called XRAIN operated by Japan’s Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT).
HRPNs, as the name suggests, are precipitation nowcasting products with the grid point interval
shortened from the conventional 1 km to 250 m for higher resolution. Conventional precipitation
nowcasts are generated using only observation data from JMA’s C-band Doppler Radar (referred tohere simply as C-band), while HRPNs involve the use of varied observation radar data such as C-band
and XRAIN in addition to the advanced application of observation data from the AutomatedMeteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) as well as upper-air radiosonde and windprofiler observation information.
JMA has developed two key techniques for the generation of HRPNs: 1) a spatially* Corresponding author: Seiichiro Kigawa

1three-dimensional prediction approach for heavy rainfall domains, including prediction for heavy
rainfall areas where no heavy rainfall is initially observed; and 2) an approach incorporating a
relatively long temporal scale and a large spatial scale (for phenomena such as stationary linear heavy
rainfall and rain generated by typhoons) to improve forecast accuracy for rain events.
The advanced application of these observation data and techniques is based on concepts differingfrom those of conventional precipitation nowcasts. For instance, the data processing functions used for
HRPN analysis and prediction were enhanced for optimal performance in the analysis and predictionof ground-level precipitation amounts and intensity. In other development for HRPN prediction
techniques, data processing functions were innovated using methods including 1) a kinetic prediction
approach in which phenomenon movement trends are extrapolated, and 2) a dynamical estimation
approach for the prediction of short-term and significantly developing rain phenomena.
Thus, HRPNs are a new precipitation nowcasting product based on the comprehensive use ofobservation data from various sources and the application of some of the world’s most advanced
techniques.

2. Algorithms
As shown in Figure 1, the algorithms used for HRPN generation are analysis and prediction types.
The former generates analysis data using two lots of information from radar and surface/upper-air
observation. The resulting data are used as input for the prediction algorithm, which is then run to
generate an HRPN.

Figure 1 Algorithms used for High-resolution Precipitation Nowcast generation
3. Analysis Algorithm
The characteristics of the analysis algorithm can be summarized as follows:

The algorithm corrects echo positional errors based on wind profiler data showing horizontal
wind at various altitudes under the assumption of wind-related echo drift within a short period
in a limited area.



One target of HRPN analysis and prediction is rainfall amounts at the surface. The effects of2

horizontal raindrop drift are corrected based on the calculation of such drift during descentfrom an altitude of around 1 to 2 km, which is the height used for radar-based rain intensity
estimation.


Radar clutter is detected by analyzing a vertical radar beam pattern based on a clutter
phenomenon by which the intensity of reflected radar beams rapidly decreases with height due
to sources of clutter on or near the ground.



The altitude and thickness of radar’s bright bands are estimated from the size and shape of thering-shaped echo observed at the maximum radar scan elevation, vertical speed as observed
using wind profilers, and surface temperature from AMeDAS data.

The processes of radar composition are as follows: In the C-band, rain intensity at a specific height for each radar is estimated using a method
for linear interpolation between data of two scan elevation angles. A nationwide radar
composition of rain intensity analysis is then calculated using the weighted averagemethod, by which radar intensity for every radar is averaged with different weights.
 In the X-band, a nationwide radar composition is calculated using the maximum method
because the weighted average method may result in underestimation of rain intensity if
rain-related radio wave attenuation is not estimated accurately.
 In the final stage of radar composition processing, the X-band and C-band nationwide radar
compositions are combined using the maximum method. The rain intensity estimation of
the X-band, which involves dual-polarized observation data, is more accurate than that of
the single-polarized C-band. Thus, the average 10 × 10-km rain intensity of the C-band
nationwide radar composition is corrected based on X-band data before the final
composition with the X-band. Re-analysis using this approach not only produces smoothcomposition at the end-edge of radar observations as shown in Figure 2 but also enables
accurate X-band rain intensity estimation outside X-band observation areas.



Vectors can be summarized as follows:

Nationwide wind vectors are estimated in three vertical layers (altitudes: 1, 2 and 3 km) at
horizontal intervals of 1 km. These vectors are converted to produce primary and secondary
wind vector components with horizontal intervals of 10 km as calculated using an azimuthal
histogram of 1-km wind vectors. Vorticity and divergence are also estimated using the same
method. Wind vectors for heavy-rain regions are calculated with 250-m horizontal and
150-m vertical intervals.

The horizontal motion of the rain intensity trend, as represented by trend vectors, iscalculated. This trend is taken as the rain intensity change calculated over a half-hour periodalong a wind vector, making it the Lagrange differential of rain intensity. Vectors
representing the trend of rain intensity are tracked over a period of an hour to elucidate the3longer-term scale change in an area of rain.


A multi-scale motion detection technique corresponding to the conventional method of echomotion vector calculation in Precipitation Nowcasts is adopted to highlight temporally andspatially varying scales of motion for echo motion vector estimation.

Figure 3 shows echo motion vectors heading northeastward or eastward, while the trend
vectors indicate largely southward motion in an area of high rain intensity (red background).
This suggests that heavy rain echoes are formed, move northeastward or eastward and thendisappear periodically, while the area of rain moves southward.

Figure 2 Radar composition (“C + X” indicates the analyzed composition of the C- and X-bands.)

Figure 3 Motion vectors (gray arrows) and trend vectors (white arrows)
Wind vectors calculated using Doppler velocity data from radars are shown as black arrows. The
background of the figure shows superimposed rain intensity distribution based on analysis.

4. Three-dimensional Prediction
JMA’s approach to HRPN generation involves the selection of notable heavy rain regions and theuse of high-resolution prediction in three spatial dimensions. Predictions outside the selected regions
4

are generated using a longer time step and fewer vertical calculations based on various types of
two-dimensional information converted from the three-dimensional distribution of rain. This enables
high-resolution, high-quality prediction with guaranteed timeliness for nowcasting products.

5. High-resolution Three-dimensional Prediction
High-resolution Three-dimensional Prediction involves extrapolation of precipitation analysis andprediction obtained from the Vertically One-dimensional Convection Model (VOCM). Analysis
extrapolation is used to predict three-dimensional distribution of water content based on the
integration of HRPN analysis with one-minute time steps using the time integration of thesemi-Lagrangian method. The time integration is divided into two types: (1) that of water content
exclusively in the vertical direction in proportion to the terminal velocity estimated on the basis ofwater content, and (2) that in all directions based on three-dimensional wind vectors calculated fromradar Doppler velocity data. The results of calculation for these values are combined using the
maximum method to generate predictions. In this way, it is possible to predict the movement, rotation,
extent, growth and decline of rain areas because the water content of (2) is multiplied by a factor
relative to the trend of growth/decline in the rain area or rainfall as predicted using the VOCM. Thisprediction method is outlined in Figure 4 for forecast times from 5 minutes to around 20 minutes with
(1) and beyond 20 minutes with (2).

Figure 4 Illustration of High-resolution Three-dimensional Prediction
The top row of the figure shows analysis, the second shows (1) and (2) combined, the third shows(1), and the fourth shows prediction with (2). The figure gives an oblique view of the rain area froman elevated position to the southeast, with lighter colors representing higher liquid water content.
Both the east-west and north-south sections show white dotted lines forming a grid of the area’s
highest water content. This figure represents the area of cumulonimbus-related precipitation that5

brought hail to the Mitaka area of Tokyo with an initial time of 14:30 on June 24 2014. The
awning-shaped echo structures (called overhangs) in the figure suggest the presence of strong
updrafts. It should be noted that practical prediction processing involves a supply of water content
from (2) to (1), while the figure for (1) shows the results of calculation with zero supply for simple
representation of how rain falls.

The VOCM is a prediction model developed from studies by Simpson et al. (1965, 1969) andYamagishi (1973). Figure 5 outlines the related prediction process. In the calculations of the VOCM, aclimbing bubble passes a Lifted Condensation Level ((1) in the figure). Condensed water vapor thenquickly transforms into cloud particles, which turn into raindrops via an auto-conversion mechanism.
The raindrops thus generated grow due to the incorporation of surrounding cloud particles ((2)), andexit the bubble as raindrops upon reaching a certain size ((3)). The bubble climbs farther to an
equilibrium level, where it stops due to a lack of buoyancy ((4)). Raindrops begin to fall from the
bubble and cool the surrounding air due to the effect of evaporation. The remaining raindrops cool theground surface when they fall ((6)).
Up to 15 bubbles can be launched successively; total rainfall then increases in proportion to thenumber of bubbles launched.
Water content prediction based on the VOCM is vertically weighted and composited forextrapolation prediction using the maximum method described above.

Vertical atmospheric profile data are used as input for the VOCM. Initial data value generation isbased on radiosonde observation results, and is updated using the method outlined in Figure 6. Several
vertical profile candidates are generated by changing the temperature of the initial vertical profiles.
This is followed by calculation of the bubble’s rate of ascent and its maximum altitude, the total
rainfall and the maximum number of lightning strikes per unit time for each of the candidates. Basedon this process, updating involves the selection of the vertical profile dataset that best accommodates
analysis or observations. Data from the selected profiles are used to modify operational verticalprofiles in and around the rain area. As this update processing takes place every five minutes, theupdated vertical profiles can be used for prediction of the next initial time. These profiles also driftwith time (as shown in Figure 7) due to the application of time integration based on thesemi-Lagrangian method with 3-km-altitude winds.

6

Figure 5 Conceptual diagram of prediction processing using the Vertically One-dimensional
Convection Model (VOCM)
The vertical axis represents altitude and the horizontal axis represents time for each bubble.

Figure 6 Conceptual diagram of vertical atmospheric profile updating
The horizontal axis of the top diagram in this figure represents time. The graph illustrates, from left
to right, the generation of one cumulonimbus cloud followed by its growth, prime state andweakening. Six candidates for vertical profiles are seen at the bottom of the figure; the blue
elements in the rightmost four columns correspond to observation data. Here, the second line fromthe top is selected as being closest to the observation data.

7

Figure 7 Vertical profile updatingThis figure shows the temperature at 5,000 meters above sea level on 23 July 2013. Areas withlower temperatures than their surroundings as revealed by vertical profile updating are seen at 15:00
in the southern Kanto and Tokai districts. These regions drift southeastward under the influence of
3-km-altitude winds, and are observed over the sea at 24:00.

6. Low-resolution Three-dimensional Prediction
The high-resolution three-dimensional prediction described in the previous section requires suchmassive resources for calculation that the number of heavy rain areas that can be predicted is limited to
between 5 and 10 (although a maximum limit of 100 is set when use is exclusively for vertical profile
updating). Accordingly, in cases where large numbers of cumulonimbi form, low-resolution
three-dimensional prediction is used in conjunction with its high-resolution counterpart.
Low-resolution three-dimensional prediction involves the use of a prediction model that correlates
the vertical speed of bubbles to the trend of rainfall with the aim of enabling prediction for greater
spatial regions. This model is based on an idea driven by the VOCM. In the model, an amount of liquidwater content d(Mi)/dt is assumed to be generated in an air column per unit time in proportion to thevertically averaged vertical velocity w in the air column. This is because dM/dt is proportional to
cloud liquid water content in the auto-conversion algorithm used for the VOCM, and this content
increases with vertical velocity. Meanwhile, without consideration of the ice state, the relationshipbetween d(Mi)/dt and vertically integrated liquid (VIL) water content (which indicates the total watercontent in the air column) is defined as shown in Equation 1, where R is a rain intensity value
representing the water content drained from the bottom of the air column to the outside per unit time.

w

dd
Mi  VIL  R
dt
dt(Eq. 1)

In addition, the VOCM predicts that bubbles rise and raindrops are generated, and rainfall is
expected if the bubble accelerates vertically upward. Thus, w is a temporal value differentiated as

8

d
d2
d
w  2 VIL  R
dt
dt
dt

(Eq. 2)As the right side of Eq. 2 is an index of vertical acceleration, it is assumed that the rainfall amountincreases when the index is positive in the model.
The model predicts that heavy rain will fall 20 to 30 minutes after vertical acceleration in an area
where the index is large and cumulonimbi grow. Rainfall is also expected to be heavy beyond 20 to 30
minutes if the spatial gradient of surface temperature or divergence is large, and to ease off if thesevalues are small.
Finally, the advective velocity values (u, v) for w, known as severe rain trend vectors, are obtainedusing Eq. 3. These vectors are combined with echo motion vectors for rain prediction.

u

w
w
w
w

, v

t
x
t
y

(Eq. 3)

7. Initiation Prediction
JMA is also working to develop the technique used for HRPNs toward the prediction of
cumulonimbus generation in order to enable longer lead times against rapidly developing heavy
rainfall. This approach involves consideration of three phenomena as triggers for cumulonimbus
generation:(1) Downflow caused by heavy rainfall
When strong downflow is caused by heavy rainfall from cumulonimbus clouds, further
cumulonimbus generation is predicted for positions where gust fronts and surrounding surface
winds converge the most strongly. When multiple cumulonimbus clouds are present, further
generation is predicted for the intersections of gust fronts from each one.
(2) Temporal variations of surface temperature and water vapor
Cumulonimbus generation is predicted for areas where surface winds (based on winddirection and AMeDAS wind speed observation data) converge in the boundary between
growth and reduction in GPS water vapor observations, and also in the boundary between rises
and falls in surface temperature.
(3) Intersection of arch-shaped weak echoes
The position and speed of weak linear or arch-shaped echoes related to local fronts or
discontinuous lines are determined automatically. When two weak echoes intersect,cumulonimbus generation in the intersection region is predicted on the assumption of atemporary increase in updraft there.
When these triggers are detected, rainfall is predicted using the VOCM. Vertical profiles are9adjusted directionally for stability when no new cumulonimbus clouds actually appear despite theappearance of triggers, when aerial conditions are unstable, and when cumulonimbus generation ispredicted.
Due to the presence of fewer AMeDAS observation stations on islands/mountains and difficulties indetecting weak echoes in mountainous areas, generation prediction based on the above techniques
results in a probability of detection (POD) below 10%. Accordingly, further improvement is needed.
8. Error Range Estimation
HRPN distribution data consist of information on five-minute integral rainfall amounts and rain
intensity. The data contain different types of information on analysis/prediction uncertainty.
The integral rainfall amount data generally applied to quantitative forecasting contain an estimatederror range ε. With P defined as the hourly rainfall amount forecast and O as the amount observed,
the probability that P – O will be between –2ε and +ε is about 70%. As the hourly rainfall amountforecast error (P – O) can actually be determined after an hour, ε represents a prediction of the error
range included in the rainfall amount forecast.
Meanwhile, rain intensity data contain information on possible sources of error in rain intensity
analysis, such as clutter, bright-band, upper-air echo or hail, as an alert to increased uncertainty on theassumption of visual application.

9. Effective Application
This section describes a half-hour rainfall amount forecast issued 15 minutes ahead as an effective
example of HRPN application (Figure 8).

Figure 8 Method of calculation for half-hour rainfall amount forecasts issued 15 min. ahead
The assumed times are 2.5 minutes for nowcast generation, 2.5 minutes for dissemination and 10
minutes for evacuation.

Table 1 shows the number of grids (categorized by half-hour rainfall amount) for columns in which
10the half-hour rainfall amount is added to 15-minute analysis amounts and forecasts issued 15 minahead with the corresponding error range. The relevant row shows the total 30-minute analysis rainfall
amount for the same period. The bottom table shows verification of results for rapidly developing
heavy rainfall. A 70% probability of detection (POD) was achieved when half-hour rainfall amounts
exceeding 50 mm were observed, but massive false alarms would still be issued with this percentage.
Assuming that the observed rainfall is 30 – 50 mm when the prediction is for 50 mm+, the false alarm
rate (FAR) could be below 40%. On the other hand, when 50 mm+ is considered correct, the frequency
with which 50 mm+ is predicted but 30 – 50 mm is observed for the same grid square is once every 51
days for a 1-km grid and four times every 51 days for a 5-km grid. A cumulative frequency exceeding
70% of the total number of frequencies (excluding those with no prediction) is used as a threshold inthis evaluation. The slight repetition of false alarms is reasonable because rapidly developing severerain is generally observed in spatially small regions. Accordingly, the number of instances when rain is
not as heavy as forecast but still heavier than usual will be relatively low during summer at a particularlocation if alarm information is based on spatially small units. It is therefore expected that the numberof false alarms would not be excessive.

Table 1 Verification of half-hour rainfall forecasts issued 15 min. ahead (with error range added to
predictions)

Error range estimation is combined with rainfall prediction by adding twice the value of ε topredictions from forecast times from 5 through 30 minutes with distribution in proportion to
5-minute integral rainfall prediction multiplied by certain factors (0.069 for a forecast time (FT) of 5
minutes, 0.071 for FT10, 0.074 for FT15, 0.077 for FT20, 0.079 for FT25 0.082 for FT30). The
bottom, middle and top tables show figures for rapidly developing severe rain, continuous rain andall cases, respectively. The information consists of verification data covering the period from 10
11July 2014 through 31 August 2014 at 10-min. intervals over land based on 1-km grid data converted
from a 250-m grid via simple averaging.

As described above, it is considered feasible to issue half-hour rainfall amount forecasts 15 minutes
ahead with the smallest unit of information condensed to a 1-km grid with a high POD and a low false
alarm rate. This allows the practical provision of reliable information with a short lead time.
Data for heavy rainfall exceeding 100 mm per hour on 23 July 2013 in Tokyo’s Meguro Ward areshown in Figure 9. Based on comparison with the rainfall amount analysis at the top of the figure, it
can be seen in the half-hour rainfall amount forecast 15 minutes ahead (shown at the bottom of the
figure) that more than 50 mm of rain was expected over Meguro Ward in the forecast for 15:55 issued
at 15:40. However, the red grid areas indicating rainfall exceeding 50 mm are delayed by about 5
minutes in their enlargement. Figure 10 also shows localized heavy rain that caused landslides in
Nagano Prefecture’s Nagiso Town on 9 July 2014. The red areas in the analysis indicate rainfall
exceeding 50 mm. The forecast issued 15 minutes ahead also shows red grid areas with somefluctuation.

Figure 9 Heavy rain exceeding 100 mm/h on 23 July 2013 in Tokyo’s Meguro Ward12

Figure 10 Heavy rain causing landslides on 9 July 2014 in Nagano Prefecture’s Nagiso Town

Nagiso Town is outside the range of X-band observation, but X-band data from near the town areavailable. HRPNs predicted the severe rain in the region where the landslides occurred thanks to thehigh accuracy of X-band rain rate estimation, which propagated beyond the X-band area.

10. Conclusions
HRPNs provide close-up, high-precision precipitation analysis and precipitation prediction.
Although current HRPN performance does not match that of high-accuracy predictions regarding
localized heavy rain caused by cumulonimbi, it allows practical prediction of rapidly developing
heavy rain (e.g., half-hour rainfall amount predictions 15 minutes ahead).
As weather phenomena caused by cumulonimbi are particularly hazardous to people who are active
outdoors, JMA’s website (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/highresorad/) is designed to provide HRPNs
with the minimum number of clicks/touches and to facilitate the retrieval of relevant information.
Users are encouraged to make good use of these online resources for safety activities and learn how toprotect themselves from disasters caused by cumulonimbus cloud-related phenomena (leaflet:
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/index.html; in Japanese).

References
Simpson, J., R. H. Simpson, D. A. Andrews and M. A. Eaton, 1965: Experimental cumulus dynamics.
Reviews of Geophysics, 3, 387 – 431.
Simpson, J. and V. Wiggert, 1969: Models of precipitating cumulus towers. Monthly Weather Review,13

97, 471 – 489.
Yamagishi, Y., 1973: On the characteristics of a One-dimensional Model of Cumulus Convection.
Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 79 – 109.

14