COVERLEAD

Japanese Economy After the Olympic &Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020
By Naoyuki Haraoka

What will happen to the Japanese economy in 2020 in theyear of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics? What will
happen to the Japanese economy afterwards? Investors
around the world are curious about the answers to thesetwo questions. The principal concern could be that after thelargest sports event in the world the Japanese economy will
go into recession in a reactionary decline in total demand.
However, the positive impact of the Games upon economic
growth through the possible increase in public and private
investment will not be the sole factor affecting the economy.
There would be a significant impact from the maindevelopments in the global economy, including theUS-China tech cold war. The consumption tax hike in 2019
may also affect the Japanese economy. This issue highlights
the short-term perspective for the Japanese economy in2020, which differs from our standard emphasis on midand long-term issues. This is aimed at the interests of stock
market and currency investors who are usually keener on
short-term perspectives for the economy.
We begin with articles on the prospects for the global
economy and major economies by three economists – Ryan
Sweet, a Moody’s analyst, and Will Denyer, an analyst atGavekal Research Hong Kong’s office, focus on the US
economy, and Japan SPOTLIGHT editorial committee
member Long Ke discusses the Chinese economy. We thenhave a roundtable discussion by three Japanese economists
on the short-term prospects for the Japanese economy.
Their economic forecasts in recent years on the Japanese
economy were found to be close to reality. Precise
economic forecasts might be valuable but it is true thattoday policy uncertainty seems to hamper them. Fourdistinguished academics on economics kindly contributed
the outcome of their latest research on policy uncertainty’s
effects upon the Japanese economy. Elif Arbatli Saxegaard,
Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito and Naoko Miake are pioneers inthis area.
After these articles, we return to our usual long-term
2 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2020

perspective. We highlight the possible legacy of theOlympics and Paralympics Tokyo 2020. The Rugby World
Cup 2019 in Japan has provided an excellent model for theGames to follow. David Bickle, president of the British
Chamber of Commerce in Japan and a former lock of theJapanese national rugby team, talks about these possible
legacies, and we then have another interview with Hiroki
Nakamura, JOC Career Academy program manager, who isin charge of supporting athletes for the Olympics andParalympics in finding job opportunities so that they canconcentrate on training and performing without financialworries. The solid relations between these athletes and theirwork companies is already a kind of legacy.
Tourism could be another important legacy. China saw anincrease in inbound tourism after the Beijing Olympics in2008, and we have three further articles about the future oftourism in Japan. Terrie John Lloyd, owner and creator of adigital travel site, talks about digital tourism in Japan’s
inbound travel sector; Adam Fulford, a producer of anumber of English TV programs in Japan, talks about theenormous potential of the Japanese countryside as a tourist
destination with the expanded use of English by local
people; and Barry Natusch, a movie expert, talks about thepleasure of “film tourism” in Japan.
The last article in our cover story is not directly related tothe Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics but envisions a newlandscape in a core part of Tokyo, Nihonbashi, to becompleted beyond 2020 following the redevelopment
achieved during the last decade. The interview withKousuke Kinoshita and Aya Sakamoto from Mitsui FudosanCo., Ltd. reveals that Nihonbashi will become anentrepreneurial and globalized district after 2020.
(Brief Introductions)
COVER STORY 1
Interview with Ryan Sweet, Economist at Moody’s Analytics

US Economy Slowing Down in 2020, But Recession Is Unlikely
By Japan SPOTLIGHT
https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

COVERLEAD

The US economy and global economy will slow down
but not fall into recession in 2020, though the US-China
tech cold war will have a negative impact upon theglobal economy after 2021.

The Rugby World Cup in Japan in 2019 left a tremendous legacy,
a significant increase in tourists visiting Japan from abroad andsports hospitality services, a new service industry. This legacy
could be a model for the Olympics and Paralympics Tokyo 2020.

COVER STORY 2

COVER STORY 7Interview with Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal Research Hong Kong OfficeInterview with Hiroki Nakamura, JOC Career Academy Program Manager,
National Training Center, Japanese Olympic Committee

World Economic Outlook for 2020 – Optimism with Prudence About
Policy Uncertainties
By Japan SPOTLIGHT

There will still be some fiscal space to stimulate US total
demand and that would save the US economy fromfalling into recession, no matter how much consumption
or the other GDP items may suffer from a decline.
COVER STORY 3
A Perspective on the Chinese Economy in 2020
By Long Ke

Without further liberalization of the economy including
reform of state enterprises, namely more utilization of
the market economy, China will not be able to maintainrobust growth and keep unemployment relatively low.
COVER STORY 4

Legacy of the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020 – theProminence of Sport in the Nation’s Life
By Japan SPOTLIGHT

The JOC’s matching efforts between business andathletes will create a win-win relationship, and sports
will become well integrated into people’s lives. That will
be instrumental in prolonging lifespans and good health.
COVER STORY 8
Digital Tourism in Japan’s Inbound Travel Sector
By Terrie John LloydDigital technology is an important tool to encourage
inbound tourism in Japan.
COVER STORY 9
Walk This Way: Universal Value in the Japanese Countryside

Roundtable with Nobuyasu Atago, Kyohei Morita & Naoki Murakami

By Adam Fulford

Japanese Economic Outlook for the Year of the Olympic & Paralympic
Games Tokyo 2020 – Searching for Stable Growth Beyond

The Japanese countryside will be reborn with more
English-speaking local people at tourist spots.

By Japan SPOTLIGHT

The Japanese economy in 2020 will not fall into recession,
though its growth rate will be largely consistent with its growthpotential, around 0.5%. Even after the Tokyo Olympics andParalympics, economic growth will not significantly decline, asa reactionary decrease in total demand will not be so large.

COVER STORY 10
Film Tourism: Something for Everyone

COVER STORY 5
Policy Uncertainty in Japan & Its Effects

COVER STORY 11

By Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito & Naoko Miake

There is a negative correlation between policy
uncertainty and the economic performance observed inJapan, according to an econometric analysis.
COVER STORY 6Interview with David Bickle, President, the British Chamber of Commercein JapanThe Legacy of the Rugby World Cup 2019 in Japan Will Be Goodfor the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020
By Japan SPOTLIGHT

By Barry Natusch

Film tourism could enhance the pleasure of travel and Japan
could be one of the best countries to attract inbound tourists.
Interview with Kousuke Kinoshita & Aya Sakamoto, Nihonbashi Urban
Planning and Development Department, Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.

Nihonbashi, the Oldest District in Tokyo, Reborn as“Entrepreneurial Town”
By Japan SPOTLIGHT

The rebirth of an old and traditional district in Tokyo as
an innovative and globalized venue is a touching story
told by a giant real estate company’s project leaders.
Naoyuki Haraoka is editor-in-chief of Japan SPOTLIGHT & executive
managing director of the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF).
Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 20203