The North Korea questions

Lecturer: Masayo Goto, PhD

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Summary
North Korean Political CultureNorth-South Relations
Nuclear crisis and Six-Party Talks
Other Concerns

2North Korean political culture The main political culture of the DPRK is the ‘Juche Idea’
created by President KIM IL SUNG. It means ‟Selfreliance‟ or „Self dependence.‟ It is a creative applicationof Marxism-Leninism, not a reinterpretation of it.
 Guiding Principles of the Juche Idea: Nationalreunification, countering imperialism and building a selfreliant socialist economy.
 The Juche Idea allows to create an indestructible unit
between the people's masses and the Leader. An
independent and sovereign state can be built and thepeople can use their talent and power for the common
benefit.

3 In the political area, it is to maintain “Independence.” Thegovernment can resolve all the problems from an
independent and sovereign way and can protect thedignity of the nation and act from the base of the equality
in the external relations. North Korea‟s foreign policy
priorities are embedded in „Guiding Principles of the Juche
Idea.‟ This means to preserve national sovereignty anddefend the nation against imperialism (The US, Japan) by
developing a “self-reliant defence.” In the defence area the Juche Idea means “Self-Defence.”
It's a basic point to warrant the protection of the country
using an invincible military power that will protect themotherland.
 In the economical area, the Juche Idea means the “SelfReliance.” With a powerful own production and militaryauto-defence, the country isn't controlled by the imperialist
4nations.

North-South relations

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Under new South Korean government Ties between the two Koreas soured after conservative
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office in2008. He pledged to get tough with the North'sgovernment.

 Tensions further heightened after North Korea
conducted its long-range rocket and nuclear tests.
The Korean War ended in a cease-fire, not a peace
treaty. This means that the two Koreas are stilltechnically at war.
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Disputed sea border - the Yellow Sea
 North Korea refuses to accept the border known as theNorthern Limit Line (NLL), which was drawn by United
Nations forces after the 1950-53 war
 North Korea frequently accuses South Korea of breaching
the disputed sea border in the Yellow Sea, and bloody
naval clashes occurred in 1999 and 2002
 In August 2009, cross-border military tensions have eased
since North Korea began making peace calls to both South
Korea and the US.
However, the tension has escalated recently…..
7 In October 2009, North Korean navy said that the"warmongers" had crossed the border 10 times on thepretext that North Korean fishing boats had intruded into
the South's waters. The incursions were part of"premeditated moves to deliberately escalate tension in thewaters and deteriorate the North-South relations once
again, adding that "warnings are bound to be followed byactions.“
 South Korea is cautiously observing the true intention ofNorth Korea.

8Questions of family reunion andhumanitarian aid
 About 600,000 South Koreans are believed to haverelatives in the DPRK. Families were separated by the1950-1953 Korean War. Ordinary citizens were notallowed to make phone calls, send letters or exchange emails across the border.
 The family reunions program began in 2000 after ahistoric inter-Korean summit between the two sides.

 North Korea agreed to hold Red Cross talks onarranging reunions for families – This could help warm
relations between the two Koreas.
 October 2009: A South Korean delegation met with its
DPRK counterpart on resuming separated family
reunions and other humanitarian projects in Kaesong, aborder city in DPRK. The first in two years.

 South Korean government (conservative) under
President Lee Myung-bak suspended government-levelaids to the DPRK when came to power in February2008.
The government may soften its position depending on
the progress of separated family reunion program.
 The DPRK demands South's humanitarian aids such as
rice and fertilizer.

Nuclear crisis and Six-Party Talks

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Recent Nuclear Crisis
 Feb 10, 2005 - North Korea announced that it completed its
nuclear development program and become to possess
nuclear bombs.
 Oct 2006 - North Korea conducts an underground nuclear
test Feb 2007 - North Korea agrees to close its main nuclear
reactor in exchange for fuel aid June 2007 - North Korea shuts its main Yongbyon reactor
 June 2008 - North Korea makes its long-awaited declarationof nuclear assets
 Oct 2008 - The US removes North Korea from its list ofcountries which sponsor terrorism
 Dec 2008 - Pyongyang slows work to dismantle its nuclear
programme, after a US decision to suspend energy aid12

 April 2009 - Pyongyang launches a rocket carrying what itsays is a communications satellite 25 May 2009 - North Korea conducts a second nuclear test July 2009 - North Korea carried out a series of ballistic
missile tests which further escalating tensions over its
nuclear and missile programmes.
 6 October 2009 - North Korea tells China it may be willing toreturn to six-party talks

North Korea‟s army of 1.2 million soldiers has been
increasingly deployed toward the South Korean border.
Kim‟s main goals in so aggressively displaying NorthKorea‟s missile capacity is to compel the United States to 13
deal directly with him…….

The six-party talks
 The six-party talks began in 2003, include delegates fromthe two Koreas, China, the US, Russia and Japan.
 In 2007, under the six-party talks, North Korea agreed todisable its nuclear facilities in return for international aid.
 In June 2008, North Korea blew up the cooling tower at its
main nuclear complex near Pyongyang in show of its
commitment to denuclearization. But disablement came tohalt later in 2008 as Pyongyang wrangled with the US over
how to verify its past atomic activities.
 In April 2009, North Korea announced that it would not reenter six-party talks to end its nuclear weapons program,citing the "deep-rooted anti-North Korean policy" of theUnited States.
14 Recently, Leader Kim Jong Il told visiting Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao that North Korea might return to stalled sixparty talks on its nuclear program depending on theoutcome of direct talks it seeks with the United States.
 The US has said it is willing to engage directly with NorthKorea, but only as part of a return to the six-party talks.
However, the US will not meet directly with North Korea
until Pyongyang commits to rejoining six-party talks on
disarmament and abides by commitments to dismantle its
nuclear programs (The last talks involving the two Koreas,
the U.S., China, Russia and Japan were held in December2008).

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 Japan and South Korea said North Korea should not be
offered aid until it has begun to dismantle its nuclear arms
programme. International sanctions against North Korea
should remain in place until "specific action" has beentaken over its nuclear programme.
 Both countries agreed to work for a comprehensive solution
to North Korea's nuclear, ballistic missile and abduction
issues.

North Korea's only viable option is „irreversible
denuclearization”

16Other concerns

17Economic crisis and famine Economic assistance received from the former USSRand China was an important factor of its economic
growth. In the 1990s North Korea saw economic
stagnation turning into crisis. In 1991 the former USSR
withdrew its support and demanded for payment in hardcurrency for imports. China stepped in to provide
assistance and supplied food and oil, most of it
reportedly at concessionary price. But in 1994 China
reduced its exports to North Korea. The North Korean
economy was undermined and its industrial output
began to decline in 1990.

 The North Korean famine began in 1995 and peaked in
1997 because of the food crisis. Estimated loss of life
would be as high as more than 3 million, or 10% of North18
Korea's population.

N Korean arms sale to terrorist states
and/or organisations
 North Korea, with an annual GDP of about $20 billion,
earns some $1.5 billion a year from missile sales.

 Since the 1980s North Korea has sold missile systems toIran, Pakistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen. Theseinclude the Scud missile and mid-range Rodong ballisticmissile.
 Obama administration sees that North Korea is a threat
to the U.S. and its neighbors because of its history ofillicit sales of missiles and nuclear technology and is now
developing ties to Myanmar's military dictatorship.
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Japan and North Korea relations
1.

Japan has attempted to normalise relations with North
Korea since the earlier 1990s.

2.

100 NoDong missiles are pointed at Japan. As well as
US bases, there are 25 nuclear power plants.

3.

North Korean agents abducted Japanese citizens in thelate 1970s and early 1980s and this have affected
normalization talks.

4.

The Japanese government has adopted a strong policyof no negotiations until the 5 remaining abductees arereturned. However, the North Korean government
claimed that the abduction issue has been closed.

North Korean abductions of Japanese The North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens fromJapan by agents of the North Korean government
happened during a period of six years from 1977 to 1983.
Although only sixteen are officially recognized by theJapanese government, there may have been as many as
70 to 80 Japanese abducted.
 On October 15, 2002, North Korea allowed the five victims
to return to Japan on the condition that they return later tothe North. They have not been back since then.
 The North Korean government continues to claim that
there were only 13 abductees and that the issue has been
resolved with the return of the five victims.
 An estimated 84,532 South Koreans were taken to North
Korea during the Korean War. Since the Korean Armisticein 1953, about 3,800 people have been abducted in North21
and that still 480 Koreans have been held by North Korea

The scenario of a collapse of the N Korean regime
 It is impossible to know how or when the current leadershipwill cease to rule the country. A sudden collapse of the North
Korean state cannot be ruled out. North Korea‟s continued
development of nuclear devices makes the cost ofmishandling a possible collapse so high. However, Kim Jong
Il's demise could hasten North Korea's demise.
 A regime crisis in North Korea poses two main challenges:(1) the military and nuclear threat on the Peninsula(2) the humanitarian and economic consequences of theNorth's collapse: the immediate risk of massive refugee
flows and the long-term economic impact of reunification.
 North Korea collapse scenarios make the relative South
Korean role larger than that of the US. However, the U.S.
would be required to coordinate carefully with South Korea,
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China and other nations.

1. Locating and securing nuclear materials: Locating thesematerials will be extremely difficult, as outsiders have animprecise idea of how many, and little to no idea of where
nuclear materials and actual devices may be. North
Korea's nuclear arsenal must not be allowed to fall into thewrong hands.
2. Restoring order and possibly combating remnants of theDPRK military: combined ROK-U.S. forces would need tobe able to end a state of anarchy that is likely to exist if thestate collapses.
3. Providing basic goods and services: the North Korean
people (large numbers of refugees and internally displacedpersons) will require food, medical care, and shelter.
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4. Unification of North and South Koreas

Peaceful unification of two Koreas
South Korea‟s perspective
 United Korea means a fully democratic Korea. It would
likely be a strong U.S. ally. The expenses of dealing withhumanitarian needs from the North may be high. If areunified Korea can recreate the sort of "business climate"in which the South thrived, the "costs" of reunification willtake care of themselves.
North Korea‟s perspective
 Korea is divided by a big concrete wall in the Parallel 38
that was built by the US when the Korean War ended. The
nation is divided because the US is dominating thesouthern part with more than 40,000 soldiers. This avoids
the unification of the Korean people. Only when the USsoldiers leave South Korea and the citizens will recover
their sovereignty, United Korea is possible. The ideology ofthe DPRK will dominate the United Korea.

End of Lecture25