Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Islands issue
andNuclear Weapons States in North Asia

Lecturer: Dr. Masayo GotoSummary
1. Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Islands issue Competing Claims
 Escalation Potential
 Possible solutions

2. Nuclear Weapons States in North Asia
 China North Korea/South Korea
 Japan

3. Potential for Asian arms race?

Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Islands issue

Competing Claims
 The Senkaku islands were claimed by Japan in January 1895

because they had been uninhabited and showed no trace of
having been under the control of China.
 The dispute appears to date from the 1968 announcement by
two Japanese scientists that there may be large reservoirs ofoil under the continental shelf below the islands.⇒ The UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea gives a 200 nautical mile
"exclusive economic zone (EEZ)” and sovereignty over theseabed resources there.
 From the end of World War II, the US occupied Okinawa andcontrolled the islands. The islands were returned to Japan aspart of the reversion of Okinawa in 1972. Since then, theSenkaku Islands have been under the administrative controlof the Government of Japan.

 The question of the development of petroleum resources on

the continental shelf of the East China Sea came to thesurface in the latter half of 1970 and the Government ofKorea, China and Taiwan began to raise questions. ⇒ BothChinese and Korean governments protested and reiterated
their claim to sovereignty over the islands (the islands arepart of Taiwan) . China argued that the Sengaku Islands do
not fall under the classification of an island as defined by theUN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
 Japan claims that the 1960 US-Japan Treaty of MutualCooperation and Security applies to territories (including theSenkaku Islands) under the administration of Japan.
Recently, Prime Minister Aso said that Japan and the USwould work together to deal with any attack by a third
country on the Sengoku Islands. The islands are Japan's
territory and thus subject to the security alliance with theU.S.

 The US considers that the islands an "administrative territory"of Japan (The US has not taken a definitive position on thesovereignty of the territory)
 China began to build a natural gas complex in the East China
Sea and Japan started exploring for natural gas in its own EEZ
in 2004 as a step to counter China's natural gas complex.
 In 2005, the Japanese government suspected China’s gas wells
being tested may cut into Japan's EEZ, and has demandedthat China provide such information as the area covered by
the projected deposits. China did not provide a substantive
response straight away. China responded that "In defiance ofChina's legitimate proposition, the Japanese side attempts toimpose its unilaterally claimed ''median line'' on China.

Escalation Potential
 A China-Japan conflict may become intense anddisrupt the balance of alliances in Northeast Asia.
 Korea and Taiwan might side with China in aconflict, while Japan would look to the UnitedStates.
 The US might be called on to defend not only its
staunch ally but also the interests of Western oil
companies.
Both China and Japan need access to greater oil
reserves under the Sengoku islands for economic
growth and maritime interests.

Recent remarks on the Senkaku
Islands/Diaoyu Islands
 February 2009: Japanese Foreign Minister Nakasone said theUS recognized Japanese jurisdiction over the Senkaku
Islands, where the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
between Japan and the US would apply. A U.S. StateDepartment official said on the same day that the Senkaku
Islands were always under the administrative jurisdiction ofJapan and the Treaty would apply to them.
 March 2009: Japanese Prime Minister Aso twice referred theSenkaku Islands as Japan’s territory, saying they wereprotected under the Japan-U.S. security treaty. He made thisstatement during his trip to the United States as well as in
the Parliament, the first time a Japanese prime minister had
made such a remark.

 March 2009: China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said "China

has indisputable sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands andadjacent islets which have been China’s inalienable territory
since ancient times. The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation andSecurity between Japan and the United States should notundermine the interest of any third party including China.
Any attempt to cover the Diaoyu Islands under the Treaty isabsolutely unacceptable to the Chinese people.
 February 2009: Japan’s Maritime Safety Agency stationed forthe first time PLH (patrol vessels large with helicopter) in thewaters of Senkaku Islands, saying that the action was aimed
to defend against "invasion" from Chinese marine survey
ships.

Possible solutions
 Japan's proposal is to divide the sea equally
between the two countries. This would put
China's claim only three miles from Japanese
territory. This proposal has not been
accepted by China.
 China's offers is to jointly develop the oil field
but this has been rebuffed by Japan.

Nuclear Weapons States in North Asia
China
China has developed and possessed weapons ofmass destruction (including chemical andnuclear weapons). China is estimated to havean arsenal of about 150 nuclear weapons(1999).
This matches the Chinese government
statement that it possesses the smallest
nuclear arsenal amongst the five major nuclearweapon states.

 1951: China signed a secret agreement with the Soviet throughwhich China provided uranium ores in exchange for Soviet
assistance in the nuclear field.
 1953: The Chinese had initiated research leading to thedevelopment of nuclear weapons through the 1953 technology
transfer agreements initiated with the USSR.
 1957: China and Soviets signed an agreement on new technology
for national defense including Soviet nuclear assistance.
 Late 1950s: China began developing nuclear weapons withsubstantial Soviet assistance.
 October 1964: China successfully exploded its first atomic bomb October 1966: China launched its first nuclear missile June 1967: China detonated its first hydrogen bomb 2005 /2006: Department of Defense's annual report suggested
that China had 250-296 launchers with 793-916 missiles of seventypes. Approximately 105 are thought to be armed with nuclear
warheads.

Pentagon Overview of China's Missile Forces, 2006

China's Missile Inventory

LauncherMissiles

DF-5/CSS-4 ICBM
DF-4/CSS-3 ICBM
DF-3/CSS-2 IRBM
DF-21/CSS-5 MRBM Mod 1/2JL-1 SLBM
DF-15/CSS-6 SRBM
DF-11/CSS-7 SRBM
JL-2 SLBM
DF-31 ICBM*
DF-31A ICBM
Total

2020
10-14
20-24
6-10
14-18
34-38
19-50
10-14
10-14
70-80
275-315100-120435-475
DEVELOPMENTAL
DEVELOPMENTAL
DEVELOPMENTAL
250-296793-916

EstimatedRange
8,460+ km
5,470+ km
2,790+ km
1,770+ km
1,770+ km
600 km
300 km
8,000+ km
7,250+ km
11,270+ km* China defines the DF-31 as a long-range ballistic missile, not an intercontinental
ballistic missile.
Source: U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People Republic of China, 2006, May 23, 2006, p.
50. Colors and notes added. Table reproduced and further analyzed in Hans M. Kristensen, et al., Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War
Planning, Federation of American Scientists and Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006, p. 38.

 China is firmly committed to the policy of no-first-use ofnuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances(Only for retaliation against strategic and tactical attacks)
 Why is China strengthening its nuclear arsenal?
1. China may simply wish to update their aging weaponssystems and replace them with more modern systems.
2. China may be seeking a stronger fighting capacity toincrease the survivability of its nuclear deterrent. As othercountries (particularly the United States) continue toincrease their military capabilities, China may feel morevulnerable.
Is China prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if
China is attacked by the US during a confrontation overTaiwan?

North Korea/South Korea
 North Korea announced that it completed its

nuclear development program and become topossess nuclear bombs in February 10, 2005.
 South Korea planned to send a domesticallybuilt satellite into orbit on its rocket Korea
Space Launch Vehicle-1 (known as Naro-1) inAugust 2009. This was South Korea's firstrocket launch. However, space officials
aborted the rocket launch just minutes before
liftoff. The reason was not immediatelyprovided.

Chronology of North Korea's missile program
Aug. 31, 1998: North Korea fires suspected missile (Taepodong-1 missile)over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean, calling it a satellite.
 Sept. 13, 1999: North Korea pledges to freeze long-range missile tests.
 March 10, 2003: North Korea fires a land-to-ship missile off east coast intowaters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.
 October 2003: North Korea fires two land-to-ship missiles.
 May 2005: North Korea fires a short-range missile into waters between theKorean peninsula and Japan.
 July 5, 2006: North Korea launches seven missiles into waters between theKorean peninsula and Japan, including a long-range Taepodong-2.
 July 15, 2006: U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1695 demanding
North Korea halt missile program.
 Oct. 9, 2006: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test blast after
citing "extreme threat of a nuclear war" from U.S.
 Oct. 15, 2006: U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1718 condemningtest, imposing sanctions and banning North Korea from activities related
to its nuclear weapons program, including "their means of delivery."17

July 14, 2007: North Korea shuts down its main Yongbyon reactor, later starts
disabling it.
 Sept. 19, 2008: North Korea says it is restoring a key atomic reactor.
 Oct. 11, 2008: U.S. removes North Korea from a list of states that sponsorterrorism.
 April 5, 2009: North Korea launches long-range rocket (a Taepodong-2
missile that has a range of 4,000 to 6,500 kilometers).
 April 13: The U.N. Security Council adopts a presidential statement
condemning North Korea's rocket launch.
 April 14: North Korea quits six-party nuclear talks and vows to restart its
nuclear facilities in protest against the U.N. statement.
 May 25: North Korea conducts its second nuclear test.
 June 12: The U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1874 sanctioning
North Korea for its nuclear test.
 July 2: North Korea test-fires four short-range missiles.
 July 4: North Korea fires several missiles, believed to be banned ballisticmissiles

Sources: South Korean defense and foreign ministries and presidential office, AP

North Korea’s rationale The North Korean foreign ministry claimed
that the US and South Korea were using
military drills as part of a plan to launch anuclear strike. It is an invasion rehearsal.
 North Korea has accused US President
Barack Obama of plotting a nuclear war on
North Korea by reaffirming a US assurance ofsecurity for South Korea.

Other concerns
 Kim may be planning to invade South Korea again--this timeusing nuclear weapons.
 US – South Korea Summit meeting was held in June 2009.
The joint statement : "A warning to North Korea"
characterizing the promise of a continued "nuclear umbrella".
Obama warned that North Korea is a "grave threat" andvowed to defend South Korea.
 However, there would be little sense in North Korea
launching a missile on South Korea or Japan because North
Korea will only face immediate and massive retaliation.
 North Korea calls for direct nuclear talks with US and offered
the US direct negotiations "with everything on the table" butreiterated it will not re-engage in six-party talks over its
nuclear weapons programs. While the Americans insist sixparty compliance is non-negotiable.

South Korean and North Korean relations
Relations between the two Koreas remaintechnically at war. The relations have beentense since President Lee Myung-bak tookoffice in South Korea in February 2008. Heabandoned late ex-President Kim Dae-jung's"Sunshine Policy" of encouraging
reconciliation with aid.

What is the Sunshine Policy?
The Sunshine Policy is the mainstay of South Korea's North
Korea policies aimed at achieving peace on the Korean
Peninsula through reconciliation and cooperation with theNorth.
 The Korean Government felt it was necessary to persuade
North Korea on the benefits that they would be reaping fromexchanges with the South rather than apply hostile pressureor an economic blockade.
 Reunification still remains the most important national
objective and aspiration of Koreans. But it cannot be realized
without first putting an end to the cold-war confrontation withthe North and establishing solid peace on the peninsula.
 Kim Dae-jung adopted the Sunshine Policy based on threeprinciples: zero-tolerance for aggression, renunciation ofunification through absorption, and an active drive forreconciliation and mutual exchange.
 The Sunshine policy led in 2000 to a historic summit between

Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Il.
 South Korea became North Korea’s second largest trade
partner following China.
 Over one million South Korean tourists have been to theKumgang mountain resort located in North Korea developed bySouth Korean Hyundai-Asan Group.
 Fifteen South Korean companies are now operating their own
factories in Kaesung Spcial Economic Zone in North Korea.
 At least fourteen thousand members of the separated families
were able to meet each other.

Meanwhile, North Korea conducted secret
programs of enriching uranium fordeveloping nuclear weapons.

It seemed that there were no direct
relations between the Sunshine policy andNorth Korea’s secret WMD programs.

But it is also difficult to deny that theSunshine policy failed to deter North
Korea’s goals to develop and possess
weapons of mass destruction.
Kim Dae-jung aids Korean unity in life and death - 21 Aug 09
http://news.google.com/news?q=US+South+Korean+summit&rls=com.microsoft:en-au:IE-SearchBox&oe=UTF8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7SKPB&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&ei=i3mOSrygOYHsQOsvIjiCQ&sa=X&oi=news_group&ct=title&resnum=4

Japan(Prospects for becoming a nuclear power)
Japanese nuclear weapons program
Japan’s post-war policy on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation has been to reject officially a military nuclear
program. Japan has consistently pledged to forswear nuclear
weapons. Nevertheless, evolving circumstances in Northeast
Asia, particularly North Korea’s nuclear test in October 2006
and April 2009, and China’s ongoing military modernization
drive have raised new questions about Japan’s vulnerability
to potential adversaries and, therefore, the appeal ofdeveloping an independent nuclear deterrent.

The three non-nuclear principles
Japanese governments have consistently
upheld the position embodied in the three
non-nuclear principles. The tenets state:
Japan shall neither possess nor manufacture
nuclear weapons, nor shall it permit theirintroduction into Japanese territory(nonpossession, nonproduction, andnonintroduction of nuclear weapons).

Japan’s nuclear capacity
Historically, the Japanese program to develop
nuclear weapons was conducted during WorldWar II in response to the perceived threat ofits enemies (principally the United States)
obtaining such a weapon first and using it
against Japan. Japan's nuclear energy
infrastructure makes it eminently capable ofconstructing nuclear weapons at will.

 Japan’s technological advancement in the nuclear field,

combined with its stocks of separated plutonium, havecontributed to the conventional wisdom that Japan could
produce nuclear weapons in a short period of time. Japan
could make nuclear weapons if Japan were to invest thenecessary financial and other resources.
 However, the ability to develop a few nuclear weapons versus
the technological, financial and manpower requirements of afull nuclear deterrent should be considered.
 The 1995 JDA report stated that Japan’s geography andconcentrated populations made the political and economic
costs of building the infrastructure for a nuclear weapons
program “exorbitant.” If Japan would want weapons withhigh reliability and accuracy, then more time would need tobe devoted to their development unless a weapon or
information was supplied by an outside source.

Legal and political restraints
 Public opinion: Pacifist sentiment remains significant.
 Constitutional constraints: There are several legal factorsthat could restrict Japan’s ability to develop nuclear weapons.
The most prominent is Article 9 of the Japanese constitutionthat outlaws war as a “sovereign right” of Japan and prohibits“the right of belligerency.”
However, the current interpretation of the constitution
would allow the development of nuclear weapons for
defensive purposes.
Beginning with Prime Minister Kishi in 1957 and continuing
through Abe in 2006, Japanese government has repeatedly
asserted that Article 9 is not the limiting factor to developing
nuclear weapons. Japanese policy may be revised on accountto the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.

Remarks on Japan’s nuclear development
 In June 1974: Japanese Prime Minister Hata told reportersthat "it's certainly the case that Japan has the capability topossess nuclear weapons but has not made them." In April 2002: Liberal Party president Ichiro Ozawa claimed
that Japan could produce "thousands of nuclear warheads"
from plutonium extracted from the spent fuel of its morethan 50 commercial nuclear reactors to deter Chinese
threats. “If China gets too inflated, Japanese people will get
hysterical. It would be so easy for Japan to produce nuclear
warheads.”
 In May 2002: Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda said Japan'speace constitution did not preclude nuclear weapons, andthat the times have "changed to the point that even revising
the constitution is being talked about. Depending upon theworld situation, circumstances and public opinion could
require Japan to possess nuclear weapons." March 2003: US Vice President Cheney apparently stated that

North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and missiles may
trigger an arms race in East Asia, and that "Japan may be forced
to consider whether or not they want to readdress the nuclear
issues.“ In October 2004: A panel of academics, business leaders, andformer government officials called for Japan to consider
acquiring the ability to launch pre-emptive military strikes. Japan
should obtain a first-strike capability, allowing it to hit enemy
missile bases to prevent an attack. This recommendation would
be certain to anger Asian neighbors specially China and North
Korea. The panel, however, came out against Japan having
nuclear weapons, saying it must not pose a threat to neighboring
countries.
 Japan's nuclear technology and ambiguous nuclear inclinations
have provided a considerable nuclear potential, becoming a“Paranuclear state"

Potential for Asian arms race?
 China’s military build up could start an arms race in Asia

The North Korean nuclear threat could start an arms race inAsia (U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, May 2009) A Japanese decision to develop nuclear weapons would be thedevelopment of a regional arms race. A nuclear-armed Japan
could compel South Korea to develop its own program,encourage China to increase and improve its nuclear arsenal andpossibly inspire Taiwan to pursue nuclear weapons.
 If the United States and China engaged in any bilateral strategicor nuclear consultations, Japan as well as Taiwan may develop a
more independent defense posture.
 North Korea alone or if the two Koreas unify while North Korea
still holds nuclear weapons and the new state opts to keep anuclear arsenal, Japan may develop a more independentdefense posture.
Conclusion
What does it all mean?????

End of lecture