君たちはどう働くか
The future of workorHow will you work
International High School Student Forum
St. Palace Hotel KurayoshiAug. 6, 2018

Minao Kukita
Grad. School of Informatics, Nagoya University
minao.kukita@i.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Outline• The advance in technology has had great impacts on how
we work.
• Recent IT, esp. robotics and AI, are expected to have
unprecedented impact.
• In this lecture, we will consider such impacts, focusing on“unemployment and distribution of wealth”, “good life”,
and “machines’ control over humans”.

The development of robots
and AIAccording to John McCarthy• An AI is an artificial system
which behaves in such way that if
humans behave in the same way,
he or she will be considered as“intelligent”.

• Early AI focuses on abilities suchas logical reasoning or usinglanguage.
John McCarthy,
who coined the term “artificial intelligence”
By "null0" (https://www.flickr.com/photos/null0/272015955/)[CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
via Wikimedia Commons

What is intelligence?
• Reasoning or calculating• Solving problems or puzzles• Using language• Playing games like chess• Making discoveries• Creating somethingA brief history of AI• The end of 19c – the 1930s: Symbolic logic, theory ofcomputation.
• Mid 20c: The advent of computers.
• 1956: Dartmouth conference on artificial intelligence.
• 1950s: The first AI boom. The age of “logical AI”.
• 1980s: The second AI boom. The age of “knowledge AI”.
• 2010s: The third AI boom. The age of “big data” and“machine learning”.
• Combined with IoT, robots, and nanotechnology, its range ofapplication will be further extended.

https://www.volvocars.com/jp/about/our-innovation/intellisafe-autopilot

https://www.bostondynamics.com/spot-mini

https://www.bostondynamics.com/atlas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P18EdAKuC1U

Rubic cube genius
https://imgur.com/gallery/O6mEPaK

Rubic cube robot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKQvAWNPe4U

With no prior knowledge, theprogram reached the champion
level within 24 hours.

PaintingComposition

https://gigazine.net/news/20170814-make-girls-moe/

AI and creative jobs

Story writing

https://www.fun.ac.jp/~kimagure_ai/

https://tech.nikkeibp.co.jp/it/atcl/column/17/060700229/061300004/

Even communication• The normal version
is free.
• However, you needto pay about $150
per week in orderto keep the“beautiful girl”
version toremember you.

I wrote an article in which I argued that people will
increasingly prefer virtual agents to humans as aconversation partner, because people are eager tohave communication but find themselves awkward
in conversation with humans.

Unemployment anddistribution of wealthWill humans go the way of horses?
• Brynjolfsson, E and McAfee, A. “Will humans go the way ofhorses?: Labor in the second machine age,” Foreign Affairs,
94(4), pp.8-14.
• Through the industrial revolution, horses lost their value aslabour force, and as a result their population decreased
drastically.
• There is no guarantee that the same thing will happen tohumans.
• Humans are different from horses in that they can choose
their future.
• We should seriously address the question of what kind ofsociety we will construct “around the labor-light economy.”• Some jobs will bereplaced by AI, but AIboosted economy willincrease employment.
• As a result, theunemployment rate willbe almost the same.
• However, the distributionof jobs will be changed alot.
• The employment in
manufacturing etc. will
see a large decrese,
while that in health,education and R & D will
see a large increase.
https://www.pwc.co.uk/pressroom/press-releases/AI-will-create-asmany-jobs-as-it-displaces-by-boostingeconomic-growth.html

• Japan’s megabanks are closing
their retail branches because
more and more of theircustomers are moving toonline.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Shrinking-tosurvive-Japan-s-banks-face-a-quiet-crisis

Negative income tax!

Basic income!

Let everyone own stocks!

Work is not only formoney

If one can live without working,that is blessing

Good life• “But if one asks which is more
respectable or more precious, those
who produce more than they
consume and contribute to the society,or those who do not produce but only
consume, the answer is obvious.”• しかし自分が消費するものよりも、もっと多くのものを生産して世の中に送り出している人と、何も生産しないでただ消費ばかりしている人間と、どっちが立派な人間か、どっちが大切な人間か、――
こう尋ねてみたら、それは問題にならな
いじゃあないか。（pp. 149-150）

Genzaburou Yoshino, How will you liveThe future depicted in the film WALL-E
画像は http://everythingsneakers.com/running-shoes-formen-balance-is-new より転載

A traditional model of “good life”• Contributing to the community using knowledge and skills
one has acquired through education and training.

• However, is this possible in the future?
• We may need to change such traditional values.

Technology and the value of humans• If one’s value is associated with “ability”, “performance”
or “productivity”, the development in technology will
relatively deflate human value.
• When machines have “intelligence” or “mind”, whereshould we seek values of humans?
• It will be even more essential that all humans have theequal value by merely existing or living, which is thefundamental principle of humanism.

Machines’ control overhumans

Prediction of
consumers
behaviours• Prediction of the number ofthe visitors based on pastdata.
• Reduction of waste.
• Efficient deployment of
personnel

Ask AI about tomorrow’s visitors• Efficient for owners• More burden for employee?

https://d-marketing.yahoo.co.jp/entry/20180508493841.html

Sharing economy• Accommodating temporarily something that is not used
now to someone who needs it.
• Companies do not own “goods”, but make profit bymediating.
• Thus, they reduce the cost and risk of having “goods”.
• However, if the “goods” are labour force, it means thatthey pass-on burdens to the labourers.
• Non-regular work and irregular shift will increase.

https://twitter.com/random_walker/status/901851127624458240

Automatic evaluation of humans

An office that will not allow workers
to sleep: It watches workers’ eyelids and sends cold air, if it judgesthat one is sleeping.

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASL7T4Q3VL7TULFA01D.html

If you don’t smile, you are notregistered as coming to workhttps://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20180617-00010000doshin-bus_all （現在は削除されている）(now deleted)You are judged from you data
(what you buy, what you watch,
who you are, whom you arewith, etc.) in almost everysocial situation

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-creditProfiling with (big) data
Ground• Consumptions• Credit score• Habits relevant to health• Where you live
• Social relations• and so on and so onJudgment• Aptitude for jobs
• Probability of crime andrecidivism• Loan application• Insurance fee• and so on and so on

Where statistics goes wrong

This guy will be violent withthe probability of 80%

80% out of this group have atendency toward violenceThis guy is dangerous.

Where statistics goes wrong
Discriminations based on
gender or race is illegitimate.

Discriminations based on inscrutable
analysis of big data is, however,
permitted for the present

“Mathematical models should beour tools, not our masters”

https://www.ted.com/talks/cathy_o_neil_the_era_of_blind_faith_in_big_data_must_end?language=ja• According to Harari, thebeginning of agriculture did not
improve human living conditions.
• Agricultural revolution was“history’s biggest fraud”.
• He claims that humans did notdomesticated wheat, but wheat
domesticated humans.

犬が尻尾を振るのはなぜか？
尻尾より賢いからだ．
もし尻尾の方が賢ければ，尻尾が犬を振る．
レヴィンソン監督『ワグ・ザ・ドッグ』（1997）より

Use the HumansWhy do humans use tools?
Because humans are smarter than tools.

If the tools were smarter, the tools would use the humans.

人が道具を使うのはなぜか？
道具より賢いからだ．
もし道具の方が賢ければ，道具が人を使う．

In order not to be used by tools• We must be smarter than them.
• Therefore, we need to know them.

• We should know what the purpose of the tool is, how it
works, what consequences it may have, who will gain
profit from it, who will be exploited, what measures wehave to resist it, etc.