COVID -19 Recovery Needs Assessment (CRNA) methodology
SummaryCovid-19 has led to unprecedented impacts on the economy, lives and livelihoods nations, communities
and individuals. This note sets out a methodology to guide UN, EU, WB and partners to assist governments
in conducting socio economic impact assessments. The methodology will help to•••Assess the overall socio-economic impact of the pandemic on the people including the various
vulnerable groups, as well as on services and production of goods and governance;
Identify priority needs for affected households and critical sectors of the economy, for restoring safe
access to and/or production of goods and services, while managing ongoing COVID-19 transmission
risks;
Recommend institutional mechanisms and policy measures to be undertaken in support of the recovery,
including measures in place to prevent and mitigate a crisis of similar nature in future.

The note builds on the experience of over 70 post-crisis assessments undertaken within the partnership
between United Nations, World Bank Group, and European Union under the 2008 Joint Declaration onPost Crisis Assessment and Recovery Planning1. The methodology draws from the post disaster needs
assessment and recovery and peace building assessment methodology with greater flexibility and simpler
approach to assessing and planning quick response to the pandemic, including the need for ongoing
preparedness and maintaining measures to reduce transmission risks when restoring production andservices. This methodology builds on preexisting partnerships, brings in global expertise from acrosspartners, does a macro, meso and micro level analysis and develops recovery needs with costs. Bybringing in key stakeholders, such as the EU, WB and other MDBs, bilateral donors, and civil society,under a coordinated and government-owned process, the CRNA can ensure alignment of thedevelopment community behind one comprehensive government-wide strategy which can be converted tocommon planning and financing outcomes.
The methodology is tailored to the COVID-19 context and needs of individual countries, and where helpful
can complement or build on assessments of individual sectors already undertaken or in progress. The
methodology aims to be both rapid and light, and achievable within a 3-4-week period. It is built aroundthe following 5 steps.
Step 1: Establish a baseline. Examine the general pre-pandemic financial, economic, social, cultural, andgovernance context to serve as a baseline to compare with post-pandemic conditions. This information
includes data for all sectors and information on key development indicators of the country such as poverty
levels, human development indicators, food insecurity status, gender inequality, spatial and horizontalinequalities, social exclusion and vulnerable groups, as well as preparedness capacities for this and othertypes of emergencies.
Step 2: Assessment of post pandemic effects including estimating Losses. Assess how all sectors andvulnerable groups are affected by the pandemic focusing on access to services (food, health care, education,water and sanitation, social assistance packages, etc), grants and support by government and otherstakeholders. This include a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the effects on all sectors of theeconomy but also effects on various vulnerable groups, their livelihoods and income. The assessment ofeffects should include an estimation estimates the economic losses (loss of revenue, income, increased
production costs) for the productive and infrastructure sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industry,

1

https://www.undp.org/content/dam/rpba/documents/docs/JointDeclaration_Sept2008.pdf

transport etc. and identifying the increased expenditures due to COVID-19 for the social sectors (health,education), as well as income loss to households due to the lockdown. Where required, to simplify themethodology, a quantitative loss estimation may only be done for the productive sectors of the economy
while the narrative for other sectors would describe the loss incurred by the sector. Cross-sectoral issues
such as changes in employment and livelihood, social protection and human rights, gender, governance andenvironment will also be analyzed. Government measures put in place in response to COVID-19, such as
safety nets interventions, business and stimulus package, and its distribution amongst regions and groups
will also be included.
Step 3: Assessment of Impact. The third step consist of using the findings to assess the impact of thepandemic on the economy and aggregated social impact on households. The macroeconomic impact should
include an analysis of the impact of the confinement measures on macro-economy (country’s revenues,expenditures, fiscal resources, balance of payments, imports and exports, GDP growth, and overall
implications for external borrowing and balance of payments support) and the social impact in five areas
1) livelihoods, 2) living conditions, 3) food and nutrition security, 4) social inclusion and 5) genderequality. It also looks at coping mechanisms of vulnerable groups. Where relevant, examine the root causes
and drivers of conflict as informed by a conflict analysis. Sources of fragility and potentials forpeacebuilding/social cohesion should also be identified along with its implications for recovery planning.
Step 4: Estimate the recovery needs. These are drawn from the effects and impacts described in steps 2
and 3. The interventions directly respond to the COVID -19 outbreak, are identified in terms of short,medium- and long-term needs and per sectors. Recovery needs target the most vulnerable groups inimproving their access to all services (education, health, social protection, etc) and restoring livelihoods.
This will be complemented with ‘building back better’ interventions needed to make communities, services
delivery and production of goods more resilient for the ongoing risks of COVID-19, and better preparedfor future pandemics.
Step 5: Recovery Strategy. The final step of the assessment is to develop a brief strategy with policy
recommendations for the short, medium and long term with some guidance on implementation
arrangements and accountability frameworks.

Guidance is available for each sector taking into consideration the sector specificity. The tools forassessment include data collection and data estimation templates with annotated sector chapter outlines
and checklist with key questions.
It is desirable that countries doing assessments complete the first online module of the PDNA
methodology to get an overview of the methodology.