ESSAS Annual Science Meeting
Ecological, social, and economic dynamics
of high-latitude coastal systems

June 19-22, 2023
Institute of Marine Research,
Bergen, Norway

Ecological, social, and economic dynamics
of high-latitude coastal systems
Overview and Schedule
The meeting will be held at the Institute of Marine Research (IMR), meeting room Pynten, in Bergen,
Norway. For details, registration, and accommodations see the ESSAS website. Abstracts are listed bysession below.

Monday, June 19
Day: Workshop – AnalogueART: Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climatechange on northern ecosystems; moving from gradient to mosaic approachesers
Eveninng: Reception

Tuesday, June 20
Morning: Session 1: Cooperative studies of coastal ecosystems engaging local communities in the
sub-Arctic and Arctic
Afternoon: Session 2: Natural disasters, multiple stressors and cumulative impacts along sub-arctic
and arctic coasts

Wednesday, June 21 (morning only)
Morning: Session 3: Blue Carbon, mariculture and climate change mitigation and adaptation in the
Subarctic and Arctic
Afternoon: Excursion, possibly followed by group dinnerThursday, June 22
Day: Session 4: Cod and climate change at the coastal interface

Friday, June 23
ESSAS business meeting

See detailed schedule below

Monday, June 19, 2023
Workshop: Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climate change on
northern ecosystems; moving from gradient to mosaic approaches
Time

Presenter

Abstract title

9:00

Samuel RastrickWorkshop Introduction.

9:30

Kumiko Azetsu-Scott

A Tale of Two Fjords, with marine-terminated and landterminated glaciers

9:45

Agneta Fransson

Western Svalbard fjords as climate change proxies for a changing
Arctic: focus on ocean acidification and climate drivers

10:00 Jonaotaro Onodera

Decadal condition changes in material transportation in thesouthwestern Canada Basin, 2020-2021

10:15 Nina Bednaršek

Natural ocean acidification analogues in the subpolar and polar
Northern regions: a synthesis study

10:30 Susen Fitzer (r)Impacts of climate change on mollusc biomineralisation

10:45 Michael Bank

Using stable isotopes as tracers of pollution in heterogeneousenvironments

11:00 Break
11:15 Jason Hall-Spencer

An overview of CO2 seep studies and the International CO2
Natural Analogues Network

11:30 Ben Harvey

The simplification of marine ecosystems under ocean acidification– insights from CO2 seeps

11:45 Richard Bellerby

Climate-Smart kelp restoration opportunities for coastal Norway

Jorge CorralesGuerrero

Using natural analogues to evaluate the resilience of cold-watercoral reefs to changes in environmental conditions

12:00

12:15 Antonio Agüera
12:30

Talia MullenHumphreys

Seasonal variability of Mytilus spp metabolic rate
Assessing vulnerability to future environmental change based on
current habitat preferences along salinity gradients within
Kongsfjorden: a case study on marine gammarid amphipods

13:00 Lunch
14:00

Jorge CorralesGuerrero

Knowledge gaps and future directions; results of a meta-analysis
of natural gradient and mosaic studies.

14:15 Samuel Rastrick

Introduction to the group writing activity (5 min)14:20 AllGroup writing activity, split up for group discussions in to
Chemistry, Biology, Statistics/experimental design.

15:15 BreakTime

Presenter

15:30 All

Abstract title
Group writing (cont'd)

17:00 Wrap-up

18:00 Reception(At venue)

Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Session 1: Cooperative studies of coastal ecosystems engaging local communities
in the sub-Arctic and Arctic
Time

Presenter

Abstract title

9:00

ESSAS co-chairs /Session chairs

9:10

Malgorzata Smieszek Understanding risk in ecosystem impact assessments in the Arctic

9:30

Kate OrtenziSouthern scientists, your data debt’s come due.

9:50

Anne Beaudreau

Stewardship, advocacy, and knowledge exchange in coastal
resource management: Case studies from Alaska

10:10 Rachael Cadman

Welcome & Introduction

Participatory Scenario Planning for Inuit-led Fish Futures

10:30 Break
11:00 David Cote

Integrative and multidisciplinary approach leads to discovery of
deep ocean biodiversity hotspot off Labrador, Canada

11:20 Yuki Minegishi

Another role of coastal marine science for making the hope in a
local community: a case of sub-Arctic area in Japan

11:40 Caroline Bouchard (r)Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in fjord and glacial habitats: acollaborative study with Uummannaq fishers

12:00 Ben Fitzhugh (r)Stewarding Sugpiaq (Alutiiq) Fisheries through the Millennia:
Braiding Knowledge for a Sustainable and Equitable Future

12:20 Discussion

13:00 Lunch

Session 2: Natural disasters, multiple stressors and cumulative impacts along
sub-arctic and arctic coasts
Time

Presenter

Abstract title

14:00 Hideki Fukuda

Recovery process of coastal ecosystem and local communities
from the disturbance induced by mega tsunami following the2011 Tohoku Earthquake off the Pacific coast, northeastern Japan

14:20 Raymond Nepstad

Oil spill modelling for preparedness and potential impacts in the
Barents Sea region

14:40 Toru Hirawake

Water mass distribution in the northern Bering and southern
Chukchi seas using light absorption of chromophoric dissolved
organic matter

Johanna Myrseth
Aarflot

Cumulative impact assessment of four coastal, sub-Arctic regionswith contrasting scope of human activities

15:20 James Overland (r)Catastrophic ecological and human impacts from climate change
and diminished sea ice in the northern Bering Sea

15:00

15:40 BreakSession 3: Blue Carbon, mariculture and climate change mitigation and adaptation
Time

Presenter

Abstract title

16:00 Session chairs

Introduction

16:10 Øivind Strand

Perspectives on Mariculture Planning facing climate change

16:30 Navya Vikraman Nair

Linking Blue Carbon Ecosystems And Water Quality In Coastal
Wetlands For Viable Small-Scale Fisheries

16:50 Wrap-up

Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Session 3 (cont'd): Blue Carbon, mariculture and climate change mitigation andadaptation
Time

Presenter

Abstract title

9:00

Ann-Lisbeth Agnalt

Overview of Aquaculture in the North Atlantic from the chair of
the ICES Aquaculture Steering Group

9:20

Ramon Filgueira

Bivalve aquaculture in Atlantic Canada: challenges and solutions
under a changing climate

9:40

Weiwei Jiang (r)Effects of Ocean Acidification on Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas
and Mitigation Approach

10:00 Masahiko Fujii

Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, anddeoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming: A
case study in the Hinase Area, Okayama Prefecture and
Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan

10:20 Jiaqi Li (r)Some insight into the influence of ocean acidification on
physiology of molluscs

10:40 Break
11:10 Xi Xiao

Climate mitigation and adaptation by large-scale seaweed farmingin China

11:30 Nina Bednaršek

Predictable patterns within the kelp forest can indirectly create
temporary spatial refugia for ocean acidification

11:50 Yaping Gao (r)Carbon from kelp and shellfish was captured and stored by bothnatural and restored seagrass bed in Sanggou Bay, China.

12:10 Samuel Rastrick

Can integrated multi-trophic aquaculture help mitigate the effects
of climate change on economically important filter feeders.

12:30 Frithiof Svenson (r)Interventions for Business Model Change - Building on a Boundary
Object Framework

13:00 Lunch
14:00 Afternoon excursion To be determined
18:00 Group dinner

To be determinedThursday, June 22, 2023
Session 4: Cod and climate change at the coastal interface
Time Presenter

Abstract title

9:00

Session chairs

Introduction

9:10

Svein Sundby

Synthesis on selected recruitment studies in Northeast Arctic andadjacent Norwegian coastal cod stocks

9:30

James Orr

Future projections of potential egg survival for polar and Atlantic
cod across the Arctic

9:50

Anja Nickel

Spatial Ecology of Sympatric Juvenile Atlantic Cod and Saithe at
Nursery Grounds

10:00 Carlissa SalantExperimental evidence of the effect of temperature and ration on
adult polar cod (Boreogadus saida) growth and condition metrics

10:20 Michelle Valliant

Distribution and movement of juvenile Atlantic cod ecotypes innearshore water

10:40 Break
11:00

Zachary MacMillanKenny

Mapping Ogak/Greenland cod (Gadus ogac) habitats in nearshore
Nunatsiavut waters using community identified fishing locations

11:20 Pavel Emelin

Dominance transition in the nektonic species structure of thewestern Chukchi Sea

11:40 Kali Stone

Retrospective look at the growth and condition of juvenile Arctic
cod (Boreogadus saida) in a warming Alaska Arctic

12:00 Emilie Geissinger (r)Overwinter Survival of Juvenile Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in a
Coastal Ecosystem

12:20 Robert Gregory (r)Temperature effects on recruitment of Atlantic and Greenland
cod and their predators in Newfoundland coastal waters

12:50 Discussion & closing

13:00 Lunch

Session 1: Cooperative studies of coastal ecosystems engaging local communities in the subArctic and Arctic
Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in fjord and glacial habitats: a collaborative study with Uummannaq
fishers
Authors: Caroline Bouchard, Patrick Farnole, Kristine Lynge-Pedersen, Parnuna Egede Dahl, Henrik
Christiansen
Greenland Climate Research Centre
Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) are often found in front of glaciers, but this is the least studied of thespecies habitats. The Uummannaq Fjord in West Greenland provides a unique opportunity to study
polar cod in the glacial habitat, as it is the only place with a directed polar cod fishery. Uummannaq
fishers regularly catch polar cod as fresh bait for the Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides)
longline fishery, the main economic activity in the region. We collaborated with Uummannaq fishers tolearn about polar cod through interviews and collection of fish samples. Ten informants provided
information on fishing areas, methods and season, and reported a spawning area near Saattut. The
fishers reported a scarcity of polar cod in the Uummannaq region in 2022 compared to prior years andsuggested a link with the absence of seals which they also observed. One of the two samples collectedcontained only 21% males, which were longer, heavier, older and had a higher gonadosomatic index
than females. We hypothesize that size-selective predation from ringed seals caused this skewed sex
ratio. Collaboration with fishers provided important baseline information on polar cod in fjord andglacial habitats.

Understanding risk in ecosystem impact assessments in the Arctic
Authors: Malgorzata Smieszek1, Frode Vikebø2, Alf Håkon Hoel1
1

UiT The Arctic University of Norway

2

Institute of Marine Research, Norway

The Barents Sea is expected to become the first summer ice-free Arctic region by around 2050, if notsooner. As the ice cover is receding fast due to climate change, new areas farther north become
increasingly accessible for economic activities such as oil and gas exploration and shipping. Extracting
and transporting oil come with the risk of accidental oil spills, including in the areas near ice that are
critical to spawning/recruitment of the cornerstone of the Arctic food chain – polar cod. While thenegative effects of declining winter sea ice cover on polar cod are partly established, the ACTION project(“Arctic ecosystem impact assessment of oil in ice under climate change“) examines the cumulative
impacts of climate change and oil pollution on that key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem. The main
objective of ACTION is to develop and demonstrate a risk assessment of those cumulative impacts andthrough that inform relevant policy-making processes.
Whereas results of the project will fill important knowledge gaps in our understanding of mechanisms
by which pollutants and climate change interact to affect key Arctic species, there are inherentlimitations in the studies of that kind. Among others, they relate to complexity of investigated processes,
nature of obstacles that prevent the filling of knowledge gaps, climate change timescales under
examination, and tipping points that – if crossed – might render today´s risk assessments inadequate.
In that context, understanding of risk and related uncertainties becomes of paramount importance,
especially among stakeholders with potentially different value perceptions. How is risk conceived bydecision-makers and stakeholders in offshore petroleum industry? What is the treatment andcommunication of uncertainties? What are the implications for decision-making processes? The casepresented here raises generic questions of fundamental importance to decision-making underconditions of climate change and increased uncertainty.

Stewardship, advocacy, and knowledge exchange in coastal resource management: Case studies from
AlaskaAuthors: Anne H. Beaudreau
University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, USA
Coastal communities in Alaska are experiencing unprecedented shifts in land and seascapes arising fromclimate change. These changes in the environment, together with economic and regulatory factors,
exert a complex set of pressures on small-scale fisheries and resource-dependent communities. Fishers
and fishing communities have responded in numerous ways, such as diversification into new fisheries or
seafood industries, development of direct marketing strategies, advocacy in resource management
settings, and local stewardship efforts.
I will compare and contrast findings from community-based research on rockfish and salmon fisheries in
the Gulf of Alaska, to explore the roles of stewardship, knowledge exchange, and engagement in the
public process of management in facilitating resilience in the context of changing coastal ecosystems.
Our research highlights existing strengths and opportunities for broader inclusion of fishers’ knowledge
within state (Alaska) and federa l (USA) fishery management system.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Inuit-led Fish Futures
Authors: Rachael Cadman, Jamie Snook, Jim Goudie, Keith Watts, Megan Bailey
Dalhousie University, Canada
In many places across the Arctic and sub-Arctic, commercial fisheries play a vital role in supporting thesocial, cultural, and economic wellbeing of Inuit communities. Still, many northern communities remain
locked out of decision-making processes while the majority of benefits flow south. There is a need forresearch that can support Inuit governance over their adjacent resources, led by their own priorities.
This prompts an important question: what do Inuit want the future of their fisheries to look like? Using
an iterative participatory approach, a group of Inuit fisheries stakeholders in Nunatsiavut, Labrador inpartnership with university researchers, led a scenario planning process to imagine desirable futures for
the Nunatsiavut commercial fishing industry. First, through interviews with fishers and managers, we
uncovered a complex system of values that frame the fisheries as a pathway for care in community, atool to nurture autonomy, and a space that fosters connection to history and belonging for many. Next,
we used these values and characteristics of a “successful fishery” as narrative prompts to build stories ofdesirable futures for fisheries. The resulting vision represents a future for fisheries that is led by and for
Inuit and has implications for how governance is framed in the circumpolar north.

Southern scientists, your data debt’s come due
Authors: Kate Ortenzi, Veronica Flowers
Dalhousie University, Canada
In the summer of 2022, I co-supervised a master’s student from Nunatsiavut in identifying previously
collected oceanographic and biological data from coastal Nunatsiavut, Newfoundland and Labrador,
Canada. Together, we combed through over 400 research applications that had been approved by the
Nunatsiavut Government Research Advisory Committee (NGRAC) over the past 10 years. Just over half
the researchers indicated their willingness to share their data with Nunatsiavut, however, very few had.
In fact, after months of email exchanges and zoom calls with past researchers, we had only gotten data
returned from about 10 percent of projects. When contacted, researchers explained why they weren’t
able to share their data. Some indicated that their institution’s ethics review board didn’t allow for data
sharing, which they had sought and gotten approved after submitting their NGRAC ethics approval.
Others explained that the research was never published, or too much time had passed and the locationof the data was no longer known.
This story is illustrative of a larger data sovereignty issue facing Northern communities derived fromethical tension between academic and Indigenous institutions and values, as well as a lack of research
process governance. Confronting this tension can help ensure that data ownership resides with
communities, and that any ethical impasse on data management between academic institutions andNorthern communities doesn’t result in researchers withholding data. As researchers, we must
recognize that disrespecting data sovereignty is a form of extractive colonialism. We must reflect on thereality that by not returning data to communities, we are creating harm by withholding information that
could be used to further self-governance. In this panel, I will reflect on the story outlined above as well
as offer recommendations for researchers based on conversations with the individuals engaged in data
management in Nunatsiavut.

Integrative and multidisciplinary approach leads to discovery of deep ocean biodiversity hotspot off
Labrador, Canada
Authors: D. Cote, B. M. Neves, J. Angnatok, E. Edinger, L. Gullage, R. Laing, A. Normandeau, V. Hayes, O.
Sherwood, M. Geoffroy
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canada
International commitments to preserve global biodiversity target the protection of 30% of marine
habitats by 2030. The lack of even basic knowledge for many marine areas, combined with shorttimelines, requires that integrative knowledge and multidisciplinary techniques are used to efficiently

identify areas worthy of protection. Here we outline a case study of the discovery of the Makkovik
Hanging Gardens found in the poorly studied coastal waters of Labrador, Canada. The area is of
ecological significance as it supports high densities of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem Indicator taxa
including the gorgonian coral Primnoa resedaeformis on vertical submarine walls spanning depths of
460-700 m . This study illustrates the benefits of integrating local knowledge, scientific models, and avariety of technologies such as Remote Operated Vehicles and multibeam sonar to discover hidden
biodiversity.

Another role of coastal marine science for making the hope in a local community: a case of sub-Arctic
area in Japan
Authors: Yuki Minegishi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
The Pacific side of the northeastern Japan’s mainland, referred as Sanriku Coast, is an area where local
communities have been historically tightly linked to seas in various aspects such as natures, marine
resources, industries and cultures. However, the values of seas in local communities in the Sanriku area
have been diminishing for last several decades due to natural and social issues like serious depopulation,
aging population, and drastic decline of local fisheries. The great earthquake and massive tsunami
attacked the Sanriku Coast in 2011, which eventually accelerated this deterioration, with resulting in
non-negligible physical and psychological separations between human societies and seas, and evenbetween local communities. For futures of communities and generations in this area beyond restorationfrom the disaster and facing climate change, making hopes in local communities is obviously needed.
In social science, a hope is defined as a wish for something to come true by action, and reconstruction of
local identities is required to generate hopes in local communities. In the Sanriku area, local identities
are based on seas, and thus it is needed for local communities to arouse interests in seas and to be
proud of their local seas. In this context, basic marine science to understand natural/social particularities
and diversities may help local communities rediscover the values of local seas/areas through sharing
scientific results but also research processes in any ways. Moreover, involvement with various local
sectors that have a wide range of aspects and standpoints possibly facilitates engagement of a wholecommunity. This kind of collaborations of basic marine science and communities would work more
effectively in the coastal areas, rather than open oceans and urban areas. In the presentation, concrete
activities engaging local communities from kids to general public in various ways will be introduced.

Stewarding Sugpiaq (Alutiiq) Fisheries through the Millennia: Braiding Knowledge for a Sustainable
and Equitable Future
Authors: Ben Fitzhugh, Hollis Miller, Dehrich Chya, Courtney Carothers
University of Washington, USA
Sugpiaq (Alutiiq) people of the Kodiak Archipelago and surrounding coasts have a long history of deep
relationships with marine ecosystems. These close relationships are well known in oral tradition andapparent in archaeological evidence of marine mammal hunting and fishing going back more than 7000
years. Maritime livelihoods are witnessed in the written accounts of the earliest European andNortheast Asian invaders in the late 18th and 19th centuries and persist throughout the Russian andAmerican periods. Fish are and have always been central to Sugpiaq cultural identity and essential tofood sovereignty and security in the archipelago. In this talk, we will explore linkages between past,present, and future for Sugpiaq communities drawing on community-centered archaeology andethnography, traditional place names, and storytelling (oral histories). We will consider the impacts ofindustrial fisheries management, especially access privatization, on community well-being and argue
that a more community-centered approach to resource governance is needed, one that honors thesovereignty and traditional and contemporary rights of Sugpiaq communities to participate equitably inthe sustainable management and use of local fisheries.

Session 2: Natural disasters, multiple stressors and cumulative impacts along sub-arctic andarctic coasts
Catastrophic ecological and human impacts from climate change and diminished sea ice in thenorthern Bering Sea
Authors: James Overland1; Elizibeth Siddon2; Thomas Ballinger3; Gay Sheffield4
1

NOAA – Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA

2

NOAA – Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA

3International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA

4

Alaska Sea Grant, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA

There was record minimum sea-ice cover during winter 2018 and 2019 in the Bering Sea, with
continuing multi-year impacts on the marine ecosystem and human activities. The back-to-back sea-ice
minimums during 2018 and 2019 were certainly unexpected, given the normal large year-to-year
variability of storms for the northern Bering Sea. Ecological shifts indicated reorganization of thenorthern marine food web that included loss of sea-ice algae and young crabs, predatory cod andpollock moving north impacting lower trophic levels, and loss of salmon abundance. Direct humanimpacts included increased seabird and ice-associated seal emaciation and mortality, and increased
harmful algal blooms. These changes affected regional food security, human/wildlife health, culturalactivities, and marine wildlife conservation. Resulting impacts to livelihoods in the northern Bering Sea
included commercial and non-commercial subsistence acquisition of essential marine resources for saleand direct consumption. Global warming initiated these events through a weakened atmospheric Arctic
Front that promotes a self-reinforcing cycle of sea-ice loss, warmer temperatures, southerly winds and awavy jet stream. Interannual variability is still important however; during 2022 the Aleutian Low
pressure system was regionally dominant. Projections for the next decades are for an increasingfrequency of low sea-ice years and a continuing ecosystem transition impacting essential marine wildlife
resources and residents of the coastal northern Bering Sea.

Variation in Bering Sea snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) lipid dynamics under multiple stressors
Authors: Erin Fedewa and Louise Copeman
NOAA-Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA
Snow crab, Chionoecetes opilio, support a high value fishery in the Bering Sea that topped international
news headlines in 2022 when the iconic fishery was abruptly closed following an unprecedented stock
collapse. Drivers of the snow crab mass mortality event are still widely unknown, although the collapseof the arctic species notably coincided with record-high recruitment, extreme temperatures, and sea ice
decline in the Bering Sea. Declines in juvenile snow crab body condition have previously been associatedwith warmer temperatures in the Bering Sea, and energetic condition is likely an important determinantof survival to recruitment. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal variation in body condition of juvenilesnow crab collected during (2019) and after (2021 – 2022) the Bering Sea snow crab stock collapse.
While bottom temperature was a poor predictor of snow crab condition metrics, we present the firstevidence that immature snow crab in eastern Bering Sea nursery grounds were in reduced energetic
condition in 2019 relative to post-collapse years. Our results suggest that large, immature male snow
crab may experience energetic constraints prior to terminal molt and recruitment to the fishery. A
complementary objective validated hepatopancreas moisture content as a rapid metric for quantifying
energetic condition in field-collected snow crab. We propose that this condition metric may be usefulfor developing a baseline monitoring program to forecast snow crab recruitment. Overall, we expectthat continued data collection on future NOAA surveys will advance our understanding of environmental
drivers of snow crab recruitment in a rapidly warming Bering Sea ecosystem.

Water mass distribution in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas using light absorption ofchromophoric dissolved organic matter
Authors: Toru Hirawake, Joji Oida, Youhei Yamashita, Hisatomo Waga, Hiroto Abe,
Jun Nishioka, Daiki Nomura, Hiromichi Ueno, Atsushi Ooki
National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
We used the light absorption coefficient of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), aCDOM, as
an alternative way to classify water masses. The aCDOM spectra of several water depths were measured
in the Northern Bering Sea (NBS), the Gulf of Anadyr included, and the Southern Chukchi Sea (SCS) in
July 2017 and 2018, and August 2018. Using optical parameters, aCDOM(350) and spectral slopes (S275–
295 and S350–400), waters were classified with cluster analysis. When surface waters in the NBS andSCS are classified using a temperature–salinity diagram, they are mistakenly identified as Alaskan
Coastal Water because of warmer temperatures. However, our cluster analysis using CDOM parameters
evenly classified seven water masses with reasonable distributions. A water mass with the highest
aCDOM(350) and lowest S275–295 was found along the coast of the Gulf of Anadyr and Alaska

mainland, which suggests that freshwater originates from the Anadyr and Yukon rivers and istransported by the Anadyr Current and Alaskan Coastal Current, respectively. A CDOM-based watermass with high S275–295, indicating CDOM degradation by ultraviolet radiation, was present at the sea
surface. A water mass with low S275–295 was found at deeper water depths and river mouths. These
results suggest that classification with CDOM parameters is consistent with geographical features.
Overall, this study reveals that water mass classification using CDOM parameters is useful in coastal sea
areas in which water mass mixing is complex.

Oil spill modelling for preparedness and potential impacts in the Barents Sea region
Authors: Raymond Nepstad, Tor Nordam, Emma Litzler
SINTEF Ocean, Norway
As petroleum development and shipping activities move further north, the potential for oil spills in
Arctic waters is of great concern. As a tool for contingency planning and forecasting during response, oilspill models play a key role. Such models can provide valuable information on how the oil will behave at
sea and in coastal areas with e.g., stranding. With the development of new, high-resolution coupled iceocean models, better predictions of sea ice are becoming available, and new models for early life stagesof, e.g., polar cod, can be combined with oil spill models to give more realistic impact assessments.
Studies in the Arctic indicate that when present, sea ice is very strongly correlated with the fate of an oil
spill, highlighting the importance of having accurate ice data available. Both seasonal trends and longerterm climate change can therefore have consequences for how Environmental Risk Assessments should
be carried out in the Arctic. The statistical nature of climate change predictions means that ensemble
simulations should be used, were oil spill simulations are run with varying inputs to map potential
outcomes.
We are currently working on improving a model of oil behavior in the marginal ice zone and ice edge by
utilizing data from recent flume experiments, to better reflect oil-ice interactions and to account for oiltransport under ice. The model will also account for the changes in the weathering (e.g., biodegradation)of oil due to low ocean temperatures. We will illustrate the model with simulations of spill scenarios at
sea and near the coast. As a part of the ACTION project, these improvements combined with coupling ofmodels for ocean currents, sea ice and polar cod will lead to improved understanding of the potential
impact of oil spills in the Arctic.

Recovery process of coastal ecosystem and local communities from the disturbance induced by megatsunami following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake off the Pacific coast in northeastern Japan
Authors: Hideki Fukuda
The University of Tokyo, JapanThe devastating physical disturbance by a mega-tsunami event causes serious and extensive damage tocoastal environment and local community. A massive tsunami associated with the 2011 Tohoku
Earthquake off the Pacific coast struck the Sanriku ria coast, which is located in the subarctic area ofnortheastern Japan. The extent and nature of the damage to coastal biota and its recovery process
differed greatly between species, life forms and localities. With the ground subsidence that linked the
movement of a plate forming a seabed, the ecotone of Sanriku ria coast was exposed to sudden,
irreversible changes. Simultaneously, local communities in the area, where aquaculture (oyster, scallopand seaweed) in a semi-enclosed bay and industries processing marine products caught in the offshore
area of the western subarctic Pacific are the main industries, were severely damaged. Although buildings
and facilities had been protected by a seawall of several meters height that had been constructed along
the coastline, the unexpected mega-tsunami destroyed them and introduced an enormous amount ofland-derived debris (soil, wood, houses, cars) to the coastal sea. Part of the land-derived debris wastransported to other countries in the northeastern Pacific with associated alien species. Althoughprotective measures were implemented after the tsunami, such as a huge seawall along the coastline
and a sluice gate at the river mouth, local communities suffered an increase in shellfish poisoning after
recovery of aquaculture facilities. Furthermore, damage to the blue economy and delay in therestoration of communities accelerated a long-lasting trend of population decline in the area. These
alterations in the coastal ecosystem and local communities are probably more rapid and more drastic
than those due to climate change. However, lessons learned from the disaster may be useful for
mitigation of various disaster risks in the coastal zone.

Cumulative impact assessment of four coastal, sub-Arctic regions with contrasting scope of humanactivities
Authors: Johanna Myrseth Aarflot, Vilde Regine Bjørdal, Marina Espinasse, Bérengère Husson, Ulf
Lindstrøm, Felicia Keulder-Stenevik, Kotaro Ono, Anna Siwertsson, Mette Skern-Mauritzen
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Coastal waters are exposed to a range of anthropogenic impacts from multiple sectors operating at sea
and on land. Ensuring that the cumulative pressures from human activities do not harm the coastal
ecosystems is challenging but crucial for sustainable management of these waters. Linkage frameworks
and ecological risk assessments have proved useful tools for holistic evaluations of human pressures as a
guide to policy makers for prioritization of risk factors. Here, we present the first holistic assessment of
ecosystem risk from human activities in Norwegian coastal waters. Pressures from a range of sectors are
identified and weighted by the exposure to and potential impact on ecosystem components following
the ODEMM framework. Our analysis focuses on four regions with contrasting scope of human activities,
which is reflected in the outcome of the risk assessment. Southern regions with high cumulative
activities are associated with higher risks of negative impacts compared to northern areas where thecumulative activities presumably exert a lower imprint on the coastal ecosystems. Pressures associatedwith ship traffic, imposed by a range of sectors, turn out as dominant risk factors, though also associatedwith considerable uncertainty. We discuss benefits and challenges with these types of assessments andmake suggestions for key next steps to increase the relevance to management.

Session 3: Blue Carbon, mariculture and climate change mitigation and adaptation in the
Subarctic and Arctic
Some insight into the influence of ocean acidification on physiology of molluscs
Authors: Jiaqi Li, Suyan Xue, Yuze Mao, Zengjie Jiang
Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute (YSFRI), Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences(CAFS), China
pH or pCO2 are usually taken to study the impact of ocean acidification on molluscs. However, we foundthat seawater carbonate parameters function differently on embryonic development, calcification andhaemolymph pH of two molluscs. Early embryonic development was susceptible to elevated pCO2 level,
while calcium carbonate (CaCO3) deposition of larval shell was found to be susceptible to calcium
carbonate saturation state (Ω) rather than pCO2 or pH. Most larvae incubated in seawater with Ωarag =1.5 succeeded in shell formation, even when seawater pCO2 level was higher than 3700 μatm and pHT
was close to 7.4. Nevertheless, larvae failed to generate CaCO3 in seawater with Ωarag ≤ 0.52 andcontrol level of pCO2, while seawater DIC level was lowered (≤ 852 μmol/kg). Surprisingly, some larvae
completed CaCO3 deposition in seawater with Ωarag = 0.6 and slightly elevated DIC (2266 μmol/kg),
while seawater pCO2 level was higher than 2700 μatm and pHT was lower than 7.3. The haemolymph
pH of molluscs showed a fast response to acidified seawater incubation. However, no significant
correlation (P > 0.05) was found between haemolymph pH and seawater pCO2 or pH. CO2 excretionoccurs in the microenvironment, and CO2 first diffuses to limited amounts of seawater that tightly
surround the gills, causing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) accumulation in the ventilation sites, whichleads to a sharp increase in the pCO2 of the surrounding seawater and hinders the excretion of CO2.
Moreover, the pCO2 level increases much faster and more greatly if the environmental seawater isacidified or contains a lower level of TA. In conclusion, different seawater carbonate parameters playdifferent roles in affecting physiology of molluscs and the whole seawater carbonate system should betaken into consideration instead of considering only pCO2 or pH.

Effects of Ocean Acidification on Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, and Mitigation Approach
Authors: Weiwei Jiang, Zengjie Jiang, Samuel P.S. Rastrick, Xiaoqin Wang, Junwei Wang, Yitao Zhang,Øivind Strand, Jianguang Fang
Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, China
Ocean acidification is predicted to have significant implications for marine calcifying organisms.
However, little is known about the physiological responses of Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, toelevated pCO2 under natural fluctuations associated with a farm environment. The present study
evaluated the effect of two pCO2 levels (i.e. ambient ~625 μatm and elevated ~1432 μatm) on thephysiological processes and growth of C. gigas using patented in situ mesocosms that simulated thefarm environment. Results showed that elevated pCO2 levels decreased clearance rate, ingestion rate,
absorption efficiency and oxygen to nitrogen ratio (O:N), while increasing oxygen consumption andammonia-N excretion rates. These physiological responses of oysters spat resulted in a reduction inenergy available for growth (scope for growth). Due to the ability of seaweed to absorb dissolved carbon

dioxide from the surrounding seawater through photosynthesis, seaweed has gained theoreticalattention as a potential partner of bivalves in integrated aquaculture to help mitigate the adverse
effects of OA. Consequently, we further investigated the impact of elevated pCO2 on the physiologicalresponses of Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, in the presence and absence of kelp (Saccharina japonica),using in situ mesocosms. Results showed that the presence of S. japonica changed the daytime pHNBS
of experimental units by ~0.16 units in the elevated pCO2 treatment, as a consequence, clearance rateand scope for growth significantly increased and oxygen consumption and ammonia-N excretion rates
decreased compared to C. gigas exposed to elevated pCO2 without S. japonica. These findings indicatethat the presence of S. japonica in integrated aquaculture may help shield C. gigas from the negative
effects of elevated seawater pCO2.

Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea
gigas) farming: A case study in the Hinase Area, Okayama Prefecture and Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi
Prefecture, Japan
Authors: Masahiko Fujii, Ryuji Hamanoue, Lawrence Patrick Cases Bernardo, Tsuneo Ono, Akihiro Dazai,
Shigeyuki Oomoto, Masahide Wakita, and Takehiro Tanaka
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation are progressing, primarily due to the increase inanthropogenic CO2. Coastal acidification has been reported to have effects that are expected to become
more severe as acidification progresses, including inhibiting formation of the shells of calcifying
organisms such as shellfish. However, compared to water temperature, an indicator of coastal warming,
spatiotemporal variations in acidification and deoxygenation indicators such as pH, aragonite saturation
state (Ωarag), and dissolved oxygen in coastal areas of Japan have not been observed and projected.
Moreover, many species of shellfish are important fisheries resources, including Pacific oyster(Crassostrea gigas). Therefore, there is concern regarding the future combined impacts of coastal
warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster farming, necessitating evaluation of current
and future impacts to facilitate mitigation measures. We deployed continuous monitoring systems forcoastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the Hinase area of Okayama Prefecture and
Shizugawa Bay in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. In Hinase, the Ωarag value was often lower than the criticallevel of acidification for Pacific oyster larvae, although no impact of acidification on larvae was identified
by microscopy examination. Oyster larvae are anticipated to be affected more seriously by the
combined impacts of coastal warming and acidification, with lower pH and Ωarag values and aprolonged spawning period, which may shorten the oyster shipping period and lower the quality ofoysters. No significant future impact of surface-water deoxygenation on Pacific oysters was identified.
To minimize the impacts of coastal warming and acidification on Pacific oyster and related local
industries, cutting CO2 emissions is mandatory, but adaptation measures such as regulation of
freshwater and organic matter inflow from rivers and changes in the form of oyster farming practiced
locally might also be required.

Bivalve aquaculture in Atlantic Canada: challenges and solutions under a changing climate
Authors: Filgueira R, Clarke S, Talevi J, Comeau LA, Coffin M, Davidson J, Porier L, Sonier, Hori T
Dalhousie University, Canada
Bivalves are not only relevant species from the economic perspective but also play a crucial role incoastal marine environments as ecosystem engineers, providing multiple ecosystem services. However,
the habitat of these species is becoming increasingly compromised due to human activities. In Atlantic
Canada, two main anthropogenic drivers constitute the major challenges for developing this industry,
eutrophication and ocean warming. Nutrient loading increases the occurrence of eutrophication, leading
to hypoxic or anoxic conditions that negatively impact bivalve performance. Further, ocean warming has
a double effect by reducing the solubility of oxygen in seawater and increasing the occurrence ofheatwaves. Under this future scenario, it is important to understand the behavioural, physiological, andmolecular responses of bivalves to these stressors to ensure that aquaculture management and farming
practices allow for minimizing the negative effects of climate change. Further, genetic solutions basedon breeding programs that allow the generation of heat- and hypoxia-tolerant lines of bivalves that
could perform better under climate change conditions become a crucial component of industry
adaptation. Transdisciplinary research combining physiology, behaviour and genetics for the early
identification of suitable candidate broodstock can accelerate the development of resistant lines,
increasing the potential success of hatchery operations. This talk provides a general overview ofchallenges for bivalve aquaculture in Atlantic Canada and discusses potential solutions for thesustainable management of aquaculture operations under a changing climate.

Carbon from kelp and shellfish was captured and stored by both natural and restored seagrass bed in
Sanggou Bay, China.
Authors: Yaping Gao, Zengjie Jiang, Fan Lin, Weiwei Jiang
Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, CAFS, China
Sanggou Bay is a typical mariculture bay in China and is also an important seagrass restoration area innorthern China. A technique for large-scale artificial cultivation and transplantation of eelgrass (Zostera
marina L.) seedlings were used and a 30-ha eelgrass meadow was established. The large-scale multispecies mariculture activities give a special ecological scene of the adjacent culture ecosystem andseagrass beds. Based on stable isotopes, the sources of organic carbon in the sediments of both naturaland restored eelgrass meadows were analyzed in Sanggou Bay. The results showed that the isotope
δ13C of the eelgrass bed in Sanggou Bay is -20.31~21.99‰, compared with -12.30‰ of the eelgrass
itself. The -8.2‰ difference of δ13C showed the typical characteristics of allochthonous organic carbon.
The estimation from the mixing model in SIAR (stable isotope analysis in R) showed that the surfaceorganic carbon in the two eelgrass beds was mainly from phytoplankton 34.0%~41.4%. Carbon of
biodeposit from cultured bivalve and from cultured seaweed/kelp contributed 23.9%~25.3% and~25.0%, respectively, while eelgrass itself only contributed about 8.3%~17.1%. The organic carbon
storage of 0~30 cm sediment is 2.01 Mg C/ha in natural eelgrass bed and about 0.48 Mg C/ha and 0.50
Mg C/ha from bivalve and kelp was captured and stored in eelgrass bed. Within 2 km of the restoredeelgrass bed, carbon export of eelgrass contributed about 5.2~10.7% in the sediment of shellfish culturearea. The results emphasize the synergistic effect between seagrass blue carbon and mariculture.

Linking Blue Carbon Ecosystems And Water Quality In Coastal Wetlands For Viable Small-Scale
Fisheries
Authors: Navya Vikraman Nair; Dr. Prateep Kumar Nayak
University of Waterloo, Canada
Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) sustain millions of livelihoods worldwide by contributing to food security andincome. However, small-scale fishing communities are marginalized and vulnerable due to cumulative
impacts of sea-level rise, hydrological changes, hydrodynamic disruptions, overexploitation of resources,
aquaculture, coastal and inland habitat loss, overfishing, lack of livelihood alternatives, along with foodinsecurity, occupational displacement, and outmigration. While most studies on SSF vulnerability havefocused on economic, social, and political factors, limited research links these vulnerabilities withchanges in water quality. My research addresses this gap by examining the effects of water qualitychanges on the vulnerability of SSF and using this examination to advance potential approaches forachieving viability. Our findings suggest ways in which SSF communities can respond to thesevulnerabilities. Overall, the aim is to foster knowledge on the sustainable management of SSFs by closely
linking hydrological changes and the importance of pertaining to sustainable development goals toachieve good water quality management.

Predictable patterns within the kelp forest can indirectly create temporary spatial refugia for ocean
acidification
Authors: Nina Bednaršek, Greg Pelletier, Marcus Beck, Richard Feely, Zach Siegrist, Dale Kiefer, Jonathan
Davis, Betsy Peabody
Marine Biological Stations, National Institute of Biology, Slovenia
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies; Oregon State University, USA
Macrophytes are recognized for serving multiple functions in coastal areas, including in ocean
acidification (OA) mitigation. However, assessing OA modification strength requires an understanding of
the multiple parameters effects, especially in highly dynamic systems. We studied the effects of sugar
kelp (Saccharina latissima) on an experimental farm at the north end of Hood Canal, Washington—a low
retentive coastal system. In this field mesocosm study, benthic calcifiers (Olympia and Pacific oysters)
were exposed with or without the kelp’s putatively protective proximity at locations in the mid, on theedge, and outside the kelp array. Model outputs were used to identify dominating factors in spatial andtemporal kelp dynamics, while wavelet spectrum analyses helped in understanding predictability
patterns. We linked these results to biological assessments, including biomineralization, growth, andtrophic connectivity of the examined species. We found no measurable alterations of the seawaterchemistry at the study site. As such, kelp did not have a direct mitigating effect to provide a refugia for
OA but created it indirectly though the autocorrelation signal related to increased predictability. Kelpalso improved habitat provisioning through kelp-derived particulate organic resource utilization. As
such, kelp array indirectly created refugia from OA with marine calcifiers showing more favorable
responses. Our results shows that a complex combination of physical, chemical and biological processes
determines the efficacy of the kelp farms for creating more favorable habitats with respect to OA. This
study can serve as a natural analogue for many coastal bay habitats where prevailing physical forcing
drives chemical changes. Future macrophyte studies that investigate OA mitigating effects should focus
significantly on the importance of predictability patterns, which can additionally improve the conditions
for marine calcifiers as well as ecosystem services with important implications for the aquacultureindustry.

Interventions for Business Model Change. Building on a Boundary Object Framework
Authors: Frithiof Svenson
Norwegian College of Fishery Science, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
To successfully implement industry-wide climate change mitigation and adaptation, a shift in businessmodel is required. Nonetheless, the effects of climate change on marine life and human wellbeing
provide evidence of a growing incoherence between the natural world and human communities.
Focusing on the intersection of the three factors cognition, coherence, and business model change is key
to overcoming this obstacle. Through business model change the impacts of climate change on ocean
life and human well-being can be reduced. This requires human involvement across several platforms
using boundary objects. Boundary objects refer to different ways that the human mind processes
information. To increase understanding about climate change mitigation and adaptation, grounding
abstract concepts in the preferred cognitive mode of managers is vital. Ahead of the envisaged shift
towards a conscious integration of climate change issues managers can use boundary objects to informtheir decisions about future directions of their business models. The interventions allow a continuouscomparison between manager’s internal perception and the external perception of what the businessmodel does to the ecosystem of the subarctic and arctic seas. Any lack of coherence between manager’s
internal perception and the external perception can lay the ground for business model change. The
contribution illustrates how boundary objects that consider climate change help to display incoherenceof some current business models. By making use of boundary objects, we can encourage
entrepreneurial managers to rethink their approaches to problem solving and encourage them to adopt
more sustainable business models. We propose an intervention for more climate-resilient businessmodels grounded in our understanding of the interdependence of ecological, social, and economic
systems. The overall objective is to come up with climate-aware business models. Through thistechnique, we help to bring about business model coherence, through considering managerial cognition.

Can integrated multi-trophic aquaculture help mitigate the effects of climate change on economicallyimportant filter feeders.
Authors: Rastrick S.P.S., Jiang Z.J., Wang X.Q., Graham H.E., Collier V., Whiteley N.M., Strohmeier T.,
Fang J.G., Strand Ø.

Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Elevated costs of maintaining homeostasis under elevated pCO2 and temperature conditions associatedwith climate change and ocean acidification (OA) are shown to divert energy away from growth andreproduction effecting the production of filter feeders important to aquaculture (Magallana gigas,
Mytilus edulis and Ciona intestinalis). It has been postulated that within an IMTA system increased
energetic demand may be met by greater energy availability. However, results show that filter feeders
are unable to utilise seston energy due to the effects of elevated pCO2 on absorption efficiency andclearance rate. Suggesting that decreased scope for growth and lower production in the future may
occur independently of nutrient availability. Furthermore, when energy is available for growth smaller
body size may convey an energetic, and so selective, advantage effecting production.
In some IMTA systems the fixation of inorganic carbon by macroalgae may, in part, mitigate the effects
of elevated pCO2 on bivalves. Within field mesocosms supplied with elevated pCO2 water (1000uatm)
the introduction of macroalgae (Saccharina japonica) increased pH. This led to increased clearance rate,
absorption efficiency, and growth in oysters (M. gigas) incubated with macroalgae compared to oysters
incubated alone under predicted OA conditions.
The energetic interactions between species within IMTA systems will change due to climate change. It is
unlikely that the elevated costs of maintaining homeostasis can be met by increasing energy availability
in the seston. However, fixation of inorganic carbon by macroalgae within some IMTA systems may, inpart, mitigate the effects of OA on cultured bivalves.

Perspectives on Mariculture Planning facing climate change
Authors: Øivind Strand , Hui Liu , Joao G. Ferreira , Jon Grant , Ellen Sofie Grefsruda, Pia Kupka Hansena,
Qianwen Sun , Jenny Weitzman
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
The policy and legal frameworks that regulate expansion of mariculture differs worldwide, andspecifically between some of the major players in mariculture development: China, the European Union(EU), Norway and Canada. In China, marine functional zoning (MFZ) is the legal framework regulating
use of marine space, while in the other nations marine spatial planning (MSP) is applied.
China, the EU, Norway, and Canada all have governmental visions and objectives to develop theirmariculture industries. They have established institutional frameworks for managing aquaculture
planning, although these are highly diverse, where a general concern and condition for further
development and growth is the interaction between mariculture and the environment.
In the prospects of future increase in competition for space and resources in coastal waters and oceans
and consequently the need for efficient governance, the apparent weak or receding position ofmariculture in MFZ and MSP processes should be of considerable concern. As mariculture is regarded as
the most promising route to achieve a substantial increase in provision of food from the oceans, there isa need for strengthening the position of mariculture and its implementation in maritime spatial planning
frameworks like MFZ and MSP. In the time frame of such endeavor mariculture will also be faced byclimate change affecting environments that regulate carrying capacities and use of space. We willpresent those climate change perspective also recognizing the relationship between food security,
intensification of mariculture and environmental sustainability.

Climate mitigation and adaptation by large-scale seaweed farming in China
Authors: Xi Xiao, Yuzhou Huang, Jiaping Wu, Carlos M Duarte
Zhejiang University, China
Seaweed farming has been proposed as a strategy for adaptation to ocean acidification, but evidence islargely lacking. Changes of pH and carbon system parameters in surface waters of three seaweed farms
along a latitudinal range in China were compared, on the weeks preceding harvesting, with those of thesurrounding seawaters. Results confirmed that seaweed farming is efficient in buffering acidification,with Saccharina japonica showing the highest capacity of 0.10 pH increase within the aquaculture area,
followed by Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis (ΔpH = 0.04) and Porphyra haitanensis (ΔpH = 0.03). Deficit in
pCO2 in waters in seaweed farms relative to control waters averaged 58.7 ± 15.9 μatm, ranging from27.3 to 113.9 μatm across farms. In addition, China is facing intense coastal eutrophication. We
combined estimates of yield and nutrient concentration of Chinese seaweed aquaculture to quantify
that one hectare of seaweed aquaculture removes the equivalent nutrient inputs entering 17.8 ha for
nitrogen and 126.7 ha for phosphorus of Chinese coastal waters, respectively. Seaweed farming, which
unlike natural seaweed forests, is scalable and is not dependent on suitable substrate or lightavailability, could serve as a low-cost adaptation strategy to ocean acidification, deoxygenation andeutrophication, and provide important refugia from ocean acidification.

Session 4: Cod and climate change at the coastal interface
Experimental evidence of the effect of temperature and ration on adult polar cod (Boreogadus saida)
growth and condition metrics
Authors: Salant C, Hicks MBRH, Iseri PJ, Ottmar ML, Laurel BJ, Parrish CC, Copeman LA
Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada
NOAA – Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA
Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) are an essential energy source for larger consumers. Due to Arctic ocean
warming and expected food-web shifts, individuals may adjust energy allocation to balance immediateneeds (growth) with future survival (lipid storage), and reproductive success (gonadal development). To
investigate the effects of temperature and food ration on polar cod morphometrics and energetic
condition during a simulated fall-early winter, we performed a laboratory experiment from SeptemberDecember of 2022. We held age-3 polar cod at 0, 3, and 8C for 12 weeks, and fish were fed either a low(1% fish-dry weight/day) or high (4% fish-dry weight/day) ration diet. We measured specific growth rate
(SGR; mass% day-1), hepatosomatic indices (HSI), gonadosomatic indices (GSI), as well as lipid metrics inmultiple tissues. A general linear model (GLM) indicated there were significant differences among SGR
based on sampling interval (F5,72=30.06, p<0.001), temperature (F2,72=9.05, p<0.001), and ration(F1,72=30.66, p<0.001). Sampling interval interacted with both temperature (F10,72=2.18, p=0.028) andration (F5,72=3.17, p=0.012) with the difference in growth between fish at 0 and 8C being most significant
in the latter half of the experiment. GLMs indicated HSI decreased significantly by the end of theexperiment (F2,36=9.95, p<0.001), more quickly at warmer temperatures (F2,36=5.3, p=0.01) and withdecreased food availability (F1,36=4.79, p=0.04). Conversely, female GSI significantly increased as theexperiment progressed (F2,30=21.17, p<0.001). Overall, these results suggest that adult polar coddemonstrate seasonal energetic patterns characterized by mobilization of lipid energy reserves awayfrom liver storage towards gonad development. Polar cod growth and condition depend on theinteractive effects of fall temperature and food availability such that these processes may besignificantly affected by ongoing Arctic warming, especially during the fall-to-winter transition.

Overwinter Survival of Juvenile Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in a Coastal Ecosystem
Authors: Emilie Geissinger, Chelsea Bloom, Ben Laurel, Robert Gregory, Paul Snelgrove
Memorial University, Canada
Juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in coastal Newfoundland settle in nearshore habitats in 3-6 pulsed
late summer-fall events each year, creating a broad size-structured age-0 year-class with potentiallydifferent survival trajectories entering their first winter. Our primary objectives were to evaluate
overwinter size-structured mortality in age-0 cod based on settlement pulses and assess the role body
condition, winter duration, and food availability have on survival using long-term monitoring data withsupport from an experimental study. In addition, we estimated overwinter dispersal and mortality in afield-based capture-mark-recapture study. Our results show that winter survival improved during long
winters when body condition was high, with highest survival among the larger, early fall arriving pulsesof cod. Late-arriving pulses were smaller at winter onset but had a survival advantage over early-settling
cod during short winters and high body condition. However, all settlement pulses had a survival
advantage when settlement occurred earlier than average. Our experimental study showed that evensmall amounts of consumed food (<1% body weight ∙ d-1) maximized winter growth and condition
potential of juvenile cod in Newfoundland waters. Lastly, highest fall mortality characterized late settling
juveniles relative to early settling juveniles (16.20%∙d-1 vs. 4.52-7.72%∙d-1), noting unexpectedly low
overwinter mortality in the first two groups (0.0052 and 0.0022%∙d-1). These combined studies
demonstrate potentially low winter mortality in early settling juveniles and emphasize the criticalimportance of the period leading up to winter for survivorship, with increased resources before andduring winter reducing a survival bottleneck. These findings advance understanding of overwintersurvival and recruitment in sub-arctic marine ecosystems experiencing changing climate and challengemany assumptions of high overwinter mortality in sub-arctic cod populations.

Retrospective look at the growth and condition of juvenile Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) in a warming
Alaska Arctic
Authors: Kali Stone1, Thomas Helser2, Timothy Essington1, Anne Beaudreau1, Matthew Baker3, andLouise Copeman2
1

University of Washington, USA
NOAA - Alaska Fisheries Science Center
3
North Pacific Research Board
2

Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) is a highly abundant fish species in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems and isan integral component of northern latitude food webs. Rapidly changing conditions in the region havemade it increasingly important to expand what is known of Arctic cod ecology in the context of climatechange. Survival of juveniles through their first winter is likely a crucial bottleneck for Arctic cod
population dynamics. Both larger size and increased lipid storage in the fall have previously been
demonstrated to increase starvation resistance in overwintering juveniles. However, summer
temperatures in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Sea regions are rapidly approaching laboratorydetermined upper thermal limits for juvenile Arctic cod growth and energy storage. Yet it is unclear iflaboratory measurements of thermal stress (i.e. reduced growth and lipid storage) translates to thesame degree of stress in wild fish. To fully realize the value of these laboratory studies, it is important tocompare the growth and energy storage of laboratory fish to that of wild fish under comparable thermal
conditions. This study retrospectively compares the growth and condition of wild-caught juvenile Arctic
cod between recent cool and warm thermal conditions in the US Arctic. Juvenile Arctic cod otoliths wereused to estimate daily ages, back-calculate hatch dates, and to evaluate the growth rates andthermography of fish born in thermally distinct years. These age and growth outcomes will ultimately be
combined with corresponding lipid data to explore whether the growth and condition of wild Arctic cod
respond to temperature in a manner consistent with laboratory findings. Such comparisons will clarify
whether and to what extent these laboratory findings provide predictive capabilities for wild Arctic cod
populations and enhance our ability to monitor Arctic cod moving forward.

Spatial Ecology of Sympatric Juvenile Atlantic Cod and Saithe at Nursery Grounds
Authors: Anja Katrin Nickel, Guðbjörg Ásta Ólafsdóttir, Steven Campana
University of Iceland, Research Centre of the Westfjords, Iceland
Nearshore habitats provide important nursery grounds for juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) andsaithe (Pollachius virens). Juvenile distribution and migration at nurseries are highly affected by seasonalchanges in temperature and photoperiod as well as by individuals’ body size and condition.
Furthermore, spatial and temporal variation in habitat choice and small scale movement between
species, size-classes and individuals can unveil adaptations which allow for the co-existence ofcongeneric cohorts as well as closely related species, such as the sympatric juvenile cod and saithe.
In this study we used acoustic telemetry to examine inter- and intraspecific differences in activity,
mobility and depth distribution of age-group 1 and 2 Atlantic cod and saithe in near-shore nursery
grounds. Each movement metric was examined for differences between species, size classes and dielvariation. We further examined the effect of temperature on juvenile movement and distribution. The
movement of 53 juvenile cod and 33 juvenile saithe was studied in an array of 33 receivers positioned in
6 gates across a small fjord in the Icelandic North-West. The study period extended from late summer
until early winter in 2020 and 2021.
Results highlighted the importance of the shallow coastal waters in their role as juvenile gadoid nursery
grounds both during summer and winter. Saithe occupied the shallowest areas (<20m) throughout the
study period, whereas cod occupied increasing depths with body size. Significant differences in diel
distribution was observed in both species. All cod larger than 22cm left the fjord, presumably to migrate
into deeper overwintering grounds. 50% of smaller cod (<20cm) stayed within the shallow waters during
early winter with near-freezing surface temperatures. Different effects of temperature and daylightwithin season and between years suggest that these two factors are not the sole drivers of juvenile
distribution and migration.

Synthesis on selected recruitment studies in Northeast Arctic and adjacent Norwegian coastal codstocksAuthors: Olav S. Kjesbu, Inken Tiedemann, Maud Alix, Anders Thorsen, Svein Sundby
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
We present results of selected studies on reproduction and recruitment in cod stocks from theNortheast Atlantic with emphasis on Northeast Arctic and Norwegian Coastal cod stocks. It is based on acomprehensive review in progress on the recent ~ 50 years studies on cod recruitment at Institute ofMarine Research (IMR). These studies started with the Cod Larvae Projects (CLP) (1975-1990) inspired by
the seminal work of Johan Hjort (1914) and has been subsequently followed up by more than 30 years
integrated studies on reproduction and early life growth/survival in a biological-physical modelling
framework.
Ocean temperature is the overarching and dominant climate variable in studies on impacts of climate
variability and climate change in marine ecosystems in general and in studies of growth and recruitment
in fish stocks. Correlation studies between ocean temperature and biotic measures are world-wide used
to confirm or reject impacts of climate variability and climate change. Such conclusions may beproblematic of multiple reasons: firstly, because ocean temperature is to variable extent positively or
negatively co-correlated with other ocean climate variables of importance to ecosystems such as wind
mixing, water column stratification, light and advection processes; secondly, because time scales ofchange among these ocean climate variables vary by several orders of magnitude; thirdly, because
ocean climate variables impact a studied target organism both directly and indirectly through higher
and/or lower trophic levels of the ecosystem. In addition, marine organisms are variably sensitive toocean climate variability throughout their life histories. This demonstrates that time series correlation
analyses must be supported by process studies in laboratory and the field, in addition to modelling of
key ecosystem processes to reveal the underlying mechanisms behind impacts of climate variability andchange.

Mapping Ogak/Greenland cod (Gadus ogac) habitats in nearshore Nunatsiavut waters using
community identified fishing locations
Authors: Zachary MacMillan-Kenny, Katleen Robert, Evan Edinger
Memorial University of Newfoundland
In Canada, northern coastlines are undergoing significant environmental change in response to therapidly warming climate. Warmer conditions coupled with changes in ocean circulation and ecologicalprocesses (e.g., migration periods, prey availability) continue to cause profound changes to the ranges
and ecology of northern fish, benthic ecosystems, and ecosystem services. These changes impact thesocial, cultural, and physiological well-being of Labrador Inuit within Nunatsiavut (Newfoundland andLabrador, Canada) whose livelihoods are intrinsically linked to the coastal marine environment. Ogak
(Inuktitut for Greenland cod (Gadus ogac)) is a highly valued demersal marine fish species within thesubarctic communities of Nunatsiavut and has been designated as a research priority in a local marine
management plan, Imappivut. Ogak have traditionally been a large part of Inuit subsistence, yet the
distribution of benthic habitats in Inuit Nunangat (Inuit homeland in Canada) and how these habitats
support the species is poorly understood. This research uses nearshore community-identified Ogak
fishing locations to map the distribution of benthic habitats in Nain, Nunatsiavut in support of managing
one of the most important marine resources in this rapidly changing region. Residents of Nain who fishfor Ogak year-round disclosed important locations near the community. These 5 fishing locations, and70 additional locations within Nain’s nearshore benthic environment, were surveyed with 5-minute drift
videos. Continuous environmental layers found to influence faunal distribution were derived using a
multiscale approach from available bathymetric data. Random Forest was used to model the presenceof species assemblages against the acoustic data and derivatives to create a full-coverage habitat map. A
total of 68 morphospecies comprised of 29,734 individuals were identified within 75 video drops. By
pairing community expertise with habitat mapping, this project supports Inuit research interests, andprovides a baseline on the distribution and structure of Ogak habitats in Nain.

Distribution and movement of juvenile Atlantic cod ecotypes in nearshore water
Authors: Michelle Valliant, Snæbjörn Pálsson, Anja Nickel, Guðbjörg Ásta Ólafsdóttir
Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, University of Iceland, Iceland
In a changing world it is important to consider intraspecific phenotypic variation in both management
and conservation. For Atlantic cod specifically, variation in migration and movement is widely
documented between populations and individuals. Maintaining migratory variation in Atlantic cod istherefore critical for stock management. Icelandic Atlantic cod is generally thought to consist of a large
migratory component, offshore or frontal cod, and smaller inshore or resident components. Thesemigratory ecotypes are known to differ in many ecologically important genes and inhabit distinct
environments, i.e. temperature and depth regimes, as adults. Less attention has been given to the early
development of cod migratory ecotypes. In species with partial migration, that is, when part of the
population migrates as others remain resident, the “decision” to migrate often depends on interactions

of numerous intrinsic and extrinsic factors. To understand the plasticity or permanence of the Atlantic
cod ecotypes it is therefore important to examine the ecotypes during the juvenile phase. Factors ofinterest include habitat selection before the onset of migration and environmental preferences or
avoidance that may trigger movement. Here the results of genetic analysis, behavioral analysis andacoustic telemetry movement analysis of juvenile Atlantic cod in Icelandic nearshore waters arepresented. The implication of the results for conservation and management are discussed.

Dominance transition in the nektonic species structure of the western Chukchi Sea
Authors: Pavel O. Emelin1, Alexei M. Orlov2,4
1

Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Moscow, Russia;

2

Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia;

3

A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology

Recent studies in the western Chukchi Sea (WCS) in 2003-2020 shown significant alterations of gadids
biomass. Walleye pollock total biomass dramatically increased from 10.8 t in 2003 to 157188.8 t in 2020.
Indices for polar cod shown reversed trend for the same period: from 117554.9 t (2003) to 3344.0 t(2020). To test the hypothesis of dominance transition in the nektonic species structure, complete dataof 7 surveys for 86 fish and cephalopod species was recalculated. To eliminate differences in survey
areas, data of species biomass was processed as density per square km. Interannual variability wasdetermined by 23 “core species” which formed from 84.6 to 99.9% of the total nekton biomass. Survey
data was divided to 10 spatio-temporal groups: 2003, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2018, 2019, 2020 in thesouthern area (<71°N), 2019 in the central area (between 71° and 73°30ʹN) and 2018, 2020 in thenorthern area (>73°30ʹN) of WCS. Variability of “core species” biomass in spatio-temporal groups wasstudied with Multidimensional scaling (MDS) based on similarities matrix of Pianka correlation
coefficient. Results of MDS shown several clusters with similar nektonic species community structure.
First cluster was formed by 2003 and 2007 data in the southern area of WCS with polar cod as dominant
specie. Second cluster consisted of 2018, 2019 and 2020 data in the southern area of the WCS where
dominant specie was walleye pollock. Data from northern area of WCS (2018, 2019) shown moresimilarity with species structure of 2003-2007 than with data from the same years from the southernarea by reason of low walleye pollock biomass and dominance of polar cod. Thus, dominance transitionin the nektonic species structure of the western Chukchi Sea was observed from 2018 to 2020 forsouthern area of WCS only.

Temperature effects on recruitment of Atlantic and Greenland cod and their predators in
Newfoundland coastal waters
Authors: Robert Gregory, Coady Fitzpatrick, Courtney King
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canada
Marine coastal nursery habitat is a widely recognized determinant of fish production world-wide,
including the northern population of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Greenland cod (Gadus

macrocephalus ogac) along the Newfoundland coast of Canada. We used 27 years of coastal zone datain such a nursery habitat to show that eelgrass (Zostera marina) determines much of the recruitment
variability in juvenile cod abundance, and possibly the offshore adult interannual abundances byextension. Young cod (age 0 & 1) show elevated growth and survival in such coastal nurseries and eventhough eelgrass occupies only a small proportion of the Newfoundland coast (likely <2%), its presence
has been shown to have a stabilizing influence in the coastal fish community, young cod in particular.
Increased summer temperatures in Canada's coastal waters represent an additional cumulative stressor
negatively effecting recruitment success in these two species.

Future projections of potential egg survival for polar and Atlantic cod across the Arctic
Authors: Jame Orr, Fanny Dubanton2, Adèle Besnard3
1

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette,
France2Ecole Ploytechnique, Palaiseau, France

3

PSL Université, Paris, France

As the most vulnerable life stage, embryos of both Atlantic and polar cod have been shown
experimentally to be sensitive not only to warming projected over this century in the Arctic Ocean but
also to increasing acidity from rising CO2. A previous study assessed thermal habitat suitability based onlarval morphometrics at hatch, first by making laboratory experiments at various temperatures and CO2
levels and then by combining those relationships with projections of surface water warming from Earthsystem models that participated in the previous phase of the Coupled Model international
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here we extend such analysis to the entire Arctic Ocean using thesame larval morphometric data combined with projections from 18 Earth system models thatparticipated in CMIP6. In addition, we refine estimates of the effect of increasing CO2 by also exploiting
model output for the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) of Arctic surface waters, which are typically far
from equilibrium with atmospheric CO2. For Atlantic cod, despite the general benefit of warming ofArctic, under all future emission scenarios, potential egg survival (PES) never makes it above the criticallimit of 90% except in the Barents Sea and Seas of Norden, being reduced by effects from increasing
CO2. By 2100, in the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), no Arctic surface waters remain with PES > 90%.
Traditional spawning grounds for Atlantic cod off Iceland and Norway become unsuitable above midlevel emissions (SSP2-4.5). For polar cod, negative effects from both warming and rising CO2 reduce
habitat suitability below sustainable levels in the Barents Sea even under the high-mitigation scenario(SSP1-2.6), while the Chukchi Sea becomes unsuitable under SSP2-4.5. Under that scenario, suitable
habitat for polar cod still remains elsewhere, but such is not the case under higher emissions (SSP3-7.0
and SSP5-8.5).

Workshop: AnalogueART - Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climate change
on northern ecosystems
Using natural analogues to evaluate the resilience of cold-water coral reefs to changes inenvironmental conditions
Authors: Jorge Corrales Guerrero, Samuel Rastrick, Melissa Chierici, Tina Kutti
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Current knowledge of the response of cold-water coral (CWC) reefs to ocean acidification and warming
is limited and based mainly on observations from short-term perturbation experiments on a few coral
species. It is difficult to correctly up-scale from these and predict effects of climate change on CWC reefs
because laboratory experiments are run on a temporal scale of months to a year, which is unlikely tocorrectly elucidate how organisms that become several hundreds, if not thousands, of years old will
respond to long-term changes in ocean chemistry and temperature.
Here, we present two studies were small-scale vertical and horizontal gradients in carbonate chemistry,
temperature and food availability around 5 Norwegian CWC reefs were used to assess how theinteraction of multiple drivers affects the structure and functioning of CWC reefs. The first study
compares species occurrences and the metabolic cost of survival of key species at the CWC reef at the
LoVe Node 7 methane seep, with two near-by reefs. At Node 7 methane has been seeping since theestablishment of the reefs 7000-10000 years ago. The second study surveyed the macro-fauna species
composition along steep vertical fjord walls with well documented vertical gradients in carbonate
chemistry and temperature.
Multivariate statistics demonstrated a dominant role of temperature in structuring the wall reef
communities, while carbonate chemistry and food availability only played sub-ordinate roles in this. At
lower temperatures scleractinian corals, large sized gorgonians and sponges dominate and were
replaced by small gorgonian corals and fan shaped sponges at higher temperatures. Further work has
documented the influence of the methane seepage and associated elevated CO2 levels on community
structure of CWC reefs and elucidate the critical physiological traits enabling the existence of reefs inenvironments naturally enriched in CO2.

Using stable isotopes as tracers of pollution in heterogenous environments
Authors: Michael S. Bank and Samuel Rastrick
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Environmental pollution is inherently complex and varies across ecosystem reservoirs and geographicalgradients. Increasingly scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers strive to identify
pollution sources at various spatiotemporal scales to support viable solutions. One tool to track
pollutants within and among abiotic and biotic matrices is stable isotope source apportionment
modeling. Here, using complex systems analyses, contaminant biology, stable isotope tracer models,and Bayesian information theory we discuss new scientific findings. We also propose novel ideas

regarding the complex relationships between global environmental change, planetary boundaries, andecosystem health in the context of blue food stable isotope tracer and pollution case studies from
Norwegian fjords and the open ocean. This presentation will discuss several simple and complex
modeling strategies including big data information theory, Bayesian degrees of belief analytics, and risk
and decision sciences in the context of contaminants and stable isotope source apportionment
applications. We also discuss our results in the context of the relevant UN sustainable development
goals and existing and proposed, multilateral, environmental conventions.

The simplification of marine ecosystems under ocean acidification – insights from CO2 seeps
Authors: Ben P. Harvey, Sylvain Agostini, Shigeki Wada, Ro Allen, Jason M. Hall-Spencer, Linn J.
Hoffmann, Koetsu Kon, Marco Milazzo, Tina C. Summerfield, ICONA members
Shimoda Marine Research Center, University of Tsukuba, Japan
University of Plymouth, UK
Human activities are rapidly changing the structure of coastal marine ecosystems, but the ecologicalconsequences of these changes remain uncertain. Natural analogues of futuristic conditions are
increasingly being used to assess the likely effects of rising atmospheric CO2 emissions on marine
ecosystems. Here, using a CO2 seep in Japan, we show how ocean acidification causes habitat andbiodiversity loss, resulting in the simplification of marine ecosystems. This simplification involves
structurally complex habitat-forming species (including corals and larger macrophytes) being replacedby more homogenous and simple turf algal habitats. Such ecological shifts are concerning because they
result in habitats that have less ecological and human value. Moreover, once these ecological shifts
occur, ocean acidification-driven stabilising feedback loops ‘lock-in’ these novel turf systems making
them particularly difficult to reverse. By understanding the ecological processes responsible for driving
community shifts, we can better assess how future communities and ecosystems are likely to be alteredby ocean acidification. Taken together, we demonstrate how the simplification of marine habitats byincreased CO2 levels will cascade through the ecosystem and will have severe consequences for theprovision of goods and services.

Decadal condition changes in material transportation in the southwestern Canada Basin, 2020-2021
Authors: Jonaotaro Onodera, Eiji Watanabe, Kohei Mizobata, Miaki Muramatsu, Motoyo Itoh, Katsunori
Kimoto, Yuichiro Tanaka, Eun Jin Yang, Naomi Harada, Takashi Kikuchi
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, JapanThe dynamics of upper ocean circulation and chemical oceanographic condition affect lower-trophic
marine ecosystems and basin-shelf interaction such as the transportation of materials. To observe therelationships between particle transportation and oceanographic condition, multi-year observation ofsetting particles have been conducted by the deployment of time-series sediment traps in the southern
Northwind Abyssal Plain (NAP) and north of the Barrow Canyon. The obtained settling particles weremainly composed of lithogenic matter with biogenic matter, suggesting an advection of re-suspended

particles from the shelf to the Canada Basin. The setting particle flux showed maxima in the productive
summer season and at the physical oceanographic events like the passing of oceanic eddies over themooring position. Total mass and particulate organic carbon fluxes at ~200 m depth in the southern
Northwind Abyssal Plain for 2018-2021 (median: 101.8 and 5.2 mg m-2 day-1, respectively) were higher
than those for 2010-2014 (median: 31.9 and 2.0 mg m-2 day-1, respectively). The settling particle fluxes
in the north of the Barrow Canyon also showed an increasing trend for 2015-2019. There were no largechanges in the bulk component of trapped materials during the studied period. In the Canada Basin, asouthward position shift of oceanic Beaufort Gyre and the intensification of the westward shelf-slope
current along the shelf edge were observed after 2017. The physical oceanographic-ecosystem model
also showed an increase in the transportation of resuspended matter with the intensified westward
current along the shelf slope in 2017. These physical oceanographic changes are the possible maincauses of the recent increase in the observed settling particle fluxes. The pH in oxygen minimum layer at
NAP temporally decreased from 2013-2014 to fall 2018. These hydrographic changes may have apotential to affect the marine ecosystems and biogeochemical condition in the study area.

An overview of CO2 seep studies and the International CO2 Natural Analogues Network
Authors: Jason Hall-Spencer and ICONA project partners
Universities of Plymouth, UK; University of Tsukuba (Japan)
This talk will highlight advanced made over the past 15 years in the use of natural analogues of future
ocean conditions, with a focus on CO2 seeps which have been used to assess the combined ecologicaleffects of climate change, such as warming, acidification, hypoxia and increased storminess. The
methods we have used to monitor changes in the blue carbon cycle and marine ecosystem services
could be applied to areas that have conditions that provide insights into the future of northern marine
ecosystems and the opportunities there are for coastal communities to adapt to these changes. The talkwill start with a description of how natural analogues have been identified and used to assess thebenefits of reductions in CO2 emissions, and the risks of carbon capture storage leaks. It will showcase
some examples from around the world and introduce the International CO2 Natural Analogues Network(ICONA) that has been designed to enable international collaborations and to standardize methods. It
will finish with some examples of cheap and easy experiments that could be done at high latitudes toassess the likely impacts of climate change.

Assessing vulnerability to future environmental change based on current habitat preferences along
salinity gradients within Kongsfjorden: a case study on marine gammarid amphipods
Authors: T. Mullen-Humphreys, J. Brown, N.M. Whiteley, H. Graham, E. Zandt, and S. Rastrick
University of Chester, United Kingdom
Climate change is leading to alterations in salinity and carbonate chemistry in arctic/sub-arctic marine
ecosystems. However, we have little understanding of the resulting effects on the biology of marine
invertebrates living along these salinity gradients, or on their ability to cope with further change. With
this in mind, we initially examined nominal populations of the circumpolar arctic/subarctic amphipod,

Gammarus setosus, along a salinity gradient in the Kongsfjorden-Krossfjorden area of Svalbard. Field andlaboratory experiments assessed physiological (haemolymph osmolality and gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity,
NKA) and energetic responses (metabolic rates, MO2, and Cellular Energy Allocation, CEA). In the field,
all populations had similar osmoregulatory capacities and MO2, but lower-salinity populations had lower
CEA. Reduced salinity (S = 25) and elevated pCO2 (~1000 μatm) in the laboratory for one monthincreased gill NKA activities and reduced CEA in all populations, but increased MO2 in the higher-salinity
population. Elevated pCO2 did not interact with salinity and had no effect on NKA activities or CEA, but
reduced MO2 in all populations. Reduced CEA in lower-rather than higher-salinity populations may have
longer term effects on other energy demanding processes (growth and reproduction). Follow-on work
has investigated the metabolic rate compensation of the different populations in the field, and after
exposure to pCO2 (500 and 1000 μatm) and salinity (S= 35, 25 and 15) combinations in the laboratory.
Comparisons will be made between the responses shown by populations in the field and after exposure
to the low salinity/high CO2 combinations in the laboratory. Any resulting changes will be related to thesurvival prospects of the populations to further changes in temperature, salinity and CO2 levels within
the Kongsfjorden-Krossfjorden area of Svalbard.

Workshop Introduction: Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climate change on
northern ecosystems; moving from gradient to mosaic approaches.
Authors: Samuel S P Rastrick, Antonio Aguera, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, James Brown, Melissa Chierici, Jorge
Corrales, Agneta Fransson, Jason Hall-Spencer, Haakon Hop, Tina Kutti. Marco Milazzo, Helen E Rastrick.
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Northern oceans are in a state of rapid transition. Still, our knowledge of the likely effects of climatechange and ocean acidification on key species in the food web, functionally important habitats and thestructure of Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems is limited and based mainly on short-term laboratory
studies on single species. In tropical and temperate systems natural analogues (Gradients and Mosaics)
of carbonate chemistry drivers have been used to further our knowledge of the sensitivity of biologicalsystems to predicted climate change, and thus assess the capacity of different species to show longterm acclimation and adaptation to elevated levels of pCO2. Natural analogues have also provided themeans to scale-up from single-species responses to community and ecosystem level responses.
However, to date the application of such approaches is limited in high latitude systems. Here we present
an overview of work within the Analogues of an Arctic in Rapid Transition WG (AnalogueART ) (within
ESSAS regional program of IMBeR). Presenting a range of Arctic and sub-Arctic case studies whereenvironmental gradients and mosaics in Carbonate Chemistry (including, CO2 and methane cold seeps,
fiords, up-welling areas, exchanges between Arctic and Atlantic water) are being used within
AnalogueART to elucidate how future climate change may effect vulnerable systems (including, cold
water coral reefs, intertidal invertebrates, and bivalves important to aquaculture. We will also discuss
the need for the standardisation of methods across natural analogue research and the method
development necessary to move from signal stressor gradient studies to more complex multi-stressor
Mosaic studies.
Natural ocean acidification analogues in the Northern subpolar and polar regions: a synthesis study

Authors: Nina Bednaršek
Marine Biological Stations, National Institute of Biology, Slovenia
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies; Oregon State University
The northern subpolar and polar regions are one of the most vulnerable to the effects of ocean
acidification (OA), both because of the current OA-related conditions as well as the rate of change,
which is one of the fastest globally. These regions also host a variety of small-scale mosaics and largerscale gradients across spatial and vertical scales that can be considered the natural OA analogues. They
offer insights into the mechanisms underlying adaptation and plasticity and potential ecological nearfuture changes under far greater realism than offered by the lab experimental studies. Variety of natural
analogues have complex setting with divergent drivers and variations in natural and anthropogenic
signal that requires an integration of chemical-biological observations, tools and metrics across thespatial and temporal scales for improved projections of ecological risks, potential refugia and theconsequences for the carbonate pump and carbon sequestration. I will present several case studies
across the subpolar estuarine and coastal macroalgae habitats, as well as the polar upwelling settings in
the natural OA analogues. For better prediction of biological responses, parameters such as amplitudeof fluctuations, frequency, lowest OA conditions, the frequency and cumulative exposure, and as well as
the dominant frequencies of variation and amplitude should be studied. The results for example
suggests that natural analogues with similar means but different variance will have substantiallydifferent exposure, pre-exposing the organisms to lower pH values more frequently and for prolonged
cumulative durations. Because of the lower predictability in the northern habitats, the organisms may
be less adaptable to predicted change and therefore better suited to sustain future changes related tovariability. These implications are crucial for evaluating the suitability of coastal habitats for aquaculture,adaptation and carbon dioxide removal strategies.

Using gradient approaches in experimental design to integrate physiological performance into species
distribution models in Canada’s Hudson Bay and the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Authors: Daniel P. SmallPêches et Océans Canada, Canada
Institute Maurice Lamontagne, Mont-Joli, Québec, Canada
Elevated temperatures are causing shifts in species distributions, while impacts from heat waves, ocean
acidification, and deoxygenation amongst others are imposing extra restrictions on species ranges
through physiological tolerance, alterations to energy balance, and mortality events. Northern and
Arctic regions are predicted to experience the greatest of these changes in environmental factors,
however there are knowledge gaps regarding northern ecosystems and species due to the difficulties of
performing research in often remote and challenging environments or transporting those species tosouthern research centres. Furthermore, factorial laboratory experiments on organism physiology areoften narrow in scope with few treatment levels or environmental factors, while the data required toincorporate physiology into species distributions models needs to be more detailed; often being in theform of response curves or bioenergetic model outputs covering the entire survivable range of thatenvironmental factor. Designing and performing such large scale physiology experiments is technicallychallenging and costly in terms of time, effort, and resources, thus making this data scarce.
Natural gradients represent an important tool in overcoming these challenges as they allow us toinvestigate species and communities which have undergone long term acclimatisation to ourenvironmental factor(s) of interest, while doing so in the context of their environment. Furthermore,
recent advances in statistics, modelling capabilities, and technical aspects of experimental design anddata acquisition will allow us to increase our throughput of physiological measurements, both from field
and laboratory based gradient studies, and incorporate this data into species distribution models. In thispresentation I will discuss some recent attempts in laboratory based gradient studies and future
perspectives on how we can compare these to natural analogues to meet these challenges in Canada’s
Hudson Bay and the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence regions.

Seasonal variability of Mytilus spp metabolic rate
Authors: A. Agüera, T. Strohmeier, C. Krogness, H. Rastrick, S. Rastrick & Ø. Strand
Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Blue mussels, Mytilus edulis L., are an important natural and cultured resource in coastal areas aroundthe world. As such, there has been a wide interest in describing the physiological performance of blue
mussels in varying environments. However, our understanding of the individual plasticity as
environmental conditions change is still limited.
High temporal resolution measurements of feeding physiology and metabolism are necessary to gain
further insight on how sensitive blue mussels performance are to natural changes, the potential
addaptationss to different seasons or combinations of food and temperature or the variability of
individually predetermined physiological performance, among others. We measured growth, feedingphysiology (clearance, retention rates) and metabolism (respiration rate) of the same 20 mussels
exposed to the natural variation of food, temperature and salinity at a high temporal frequency for ayear. An automatised system performed measurements of feeding every 2 hours and respiration every 4hours.
Over 17000 respirometries and 40000 measurements of clearance and retention were collected overthat year. Preliminary results show that mussels exhibit a wide variability in both metabolism andfeeding physiology that reflect in growth and overall performance. Individuals could not be classified aseither slow or fast growers/feeders but a continuous range of performance was observed that resulted
in larger variability of measured growth, feeding and metabolism as the experiment progressed. Food
was the main driver of both feeding physiology and metabolism variability during the year, with little
effect of temperature in modulating these within the observed temperature range (5 - 18°C).