Preface141

Preface
The Kyoto Protocol was finally put into practice on 16 February 2005. Developed countries, including Japan,
are now anticipated to reinforce and promote their domestic CO2 reduction measures by complementarily utilizing
Kyoto mechanisms such as emissions trading and the clean development mechanism in order to achieve their
reduction goals during the first commitment period (from 2008 to 2012). On the other hand, the impacts of global
warming are becoming increasingly apparent all around the world and there is growing concern about these
impacts, as exemplified by both the recent frequent occurrences of extreme weather phenomena and the measurestaken to adapt to these phenomena. For example, the heat wave that hit Europe in 2003 killed 15,000 people inFrance; Japan experienced record heat, disastrous rain and 10 typhoon hits in 2004; and gigantic-scale hurricanes
occurred one after another in the Caribbean Sea in 2004 and 2005, causing enormous and extensive damage to theUnited States and neighboring countries. Although the relationship between individual extreme climate
phenomena and global warming has yet to be clarified, past studies using climate models suggest that extreme
phenomena such as heat waves, devastating rain, typhoons and hurricanes will occur more frequently and theirmagnitude will become larger as global warming progresses.
Identification of the present situation and prediction of the future effects of global warming, together with
scientific knowledge of possible adaptation measures that can be taken to alleviate these effects, are indispensable
to the implementation of global warming prevention measures. Because of this, studies of the effects of, andmeasures for adaptation to, global warming have definitely advanced over the last ten years. However, thescientific symposium “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” held in Exeter, UK in February 2005 revealed that
global warming is worsening more rapidly than researchers thought and is having some extremely serious effects.
This is something that may have been overlooked by researchers and their studies, and therefore further
cooperation between climate system and model studies, and effect and adaptation studies is definitely necessary.
As provided in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the basic policy forprevention of global warming aims to stabilize both temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere. Consequently, we need to judge what constitutes a dangerous rise in temperature and the level of
effect that this may have, and we need to judge “What constitutes danger?” in order to decide on a dangerous
effect level. Science must always separate itself from politics, and policymakers have been assumed to beresponsible for deciding “what constitutes danger.” However, in regard to the global warming issue, policymakers
should not only be responsible for providing research data on its effects and our possible adaptation strategies, butthey should also show us what level of effects is dangerous. To this end, we have an urgent task ahead of us to
identify the dangerous effect level by promoting studies of effects and adaptations and integrating the knowledge
obtained from individual fields and regions, and furthermore to promote research in cooperation with stakeholders,
including policymakers.
For this special issue of Global Environmental Research, the latest achievements in research on global
warming effects and adaptations have been summarized by front-line researchers. Part I will introduce the latest
research developments on future climate forecasting, which are the basis for predictions and assessments of theeffects of global warming. Although there is a time lag (1–2 years) when the results of climate model-based
prediction are used for studies on effect and adaptation, thanks to the global warming research initiative by theCouncil for Science and Technology Policy, cooperation between climate model-based studies and effect-related
studies has grown increasingly close, and impact studies are now able to use the latest climate-prediction as
climate scenarios. In parts II, III and IV, the latest research achievements in effects and adaptations in different
fields will be summarized. These fields include ecosystems, agriculture and fisheries, water resources and droughtrisk. Part V is a summary of the latest studies on the effects on civil life, including human life and an evaluationfrom an economic point of view, none of which have been studied much so far. Part VI and Part VII summarize
adaptation to global warming and studies on the dangerous impacts level and stability concentration, respectively.
More advanced studies that will be useful for the prevention of global warming, including ones on dangerous
effect levels, are expected to be conducted into effects and adaptations on the basis of accumulated past results.
Hideo Harasawa
National Institute for Environmental Studies