IJERD – International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development (2023) 14-1

Research article
erdNational versus Local Climatic Variability and Implications
for Communities in Protected Areas: The Case of Lake
Malawi National Park
DICKSON M. MAZIBUKO
Graduate School of Agro-Environmental Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture, Japan
Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences, University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi

LAMECK FIWA
Faculty of Agriculture, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Malawi

MASKEY SARVESH
Faculty of Regional Environment Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture, Japan

HIROMU OKAZAWA*
Faculty of Regional Environment Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture, Japan
Email: h1okazaw@nodai.ac.jp
Received 22 May 2023

Accepted 20 June 2023(*Corresponding Author)

Abstract Understanding the rainfall dynamics of a nation/region is key to decision-making,especially regarding agriculture within protected areas. This study focused on the area of Cape
Maclear and the adjacent villages located within the Lake Malawi National Park (LMNP). By
gaining insight into how communities whose agricultural activities interact with protectedareas operate, we can gain insight into the long-term sustainability of the LMNP. This study
aimed to assess the historical rainfall dynamics for Cape Maclear using 35-year annual rainfall
and temperature data. Rainfall trends were established and compared with recorded events.
The results indicated that Cape Maclear rainfall trends resonate with reported national drought
events, though with variations. This provides a proxy possibility of making localized
predictions of such events. Analysis of the return period shows annual rainfall of between 500900 mm occurs every 2-3 years, indicating no significant shifts from what has been observedin the past. Due to the sensitivity and fragility of the LMNP ecosystem, there is a need todesign local solutions for the communities living within the park to enable them to better
prepare for future climatic shocks, especially rainfall inadequacies.
Keywords climate, community, drought, rainfall, protected area

INTRODUCTION
Protected areas face several challenges, and one emerging challenge is climate change. Global
climatic change is receiving a lot of attention due to the diverse impacts currently felt and being
projected. Besides broader climatic variabilities, local scale events have been observed. Ngongondo
et al. (2021) assessed drought and floods in Malawi and found variations in the frequency andintensity of these events across all districts in Malawi, indicating that their occurrence is notnationally homogenous. It is predicted that climate change will lead to an altered frequency, intensity,and duration of localized climatic shocks such as droughts and temperature extremes (Chen et al.,2018), with diverse impacts. For communities living in protected areas, whose alternative livelihoods
are sought from protected natural resources, such climatic shocks will impact ecosystems.
Ecosystems impacts vary in their extent, however for communities embedded within protected areas,such impacts could be particularly pronounced for both people and the protected area itself. The
existence of agriculture within protected areas is illegal in most countries (Tranquilli et al., 2014).
For Lake Malawi National Park, however, there are settlements inside the National Park. This isⒸ ISERD

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because, at its founding in 1981, a presidential directive stopped the eviction of any persons that werealready living in the park. The two key livelihood activities within the National Park are agriculture
and harvesting of non-timber forest products (NTFP). Agriculture is thought of as a threat to park
diversity due to people-nature conflicts that result as communities extract livelihoods from protectedareas. These conflicts include deforestation for fuel needs, especially in tropical Africa (Wade et al.,2020), population growth leads to agricultural expansion at the expense of parkland (Sardjo et al.,2022; Joppa et al., 2009), agricultural inputs that negatively impact on diversity within protectedareas, and other direct human-animal conflicts (Mohan, et al., 2020) due to proximity of existence.
For the sustainability of agriculture within protected areas, there is a need for agriculture production
approaches that minimally impact protected area diversity. In Italy, organic agriculture is a dominantagricultural practice within protected areas (Grandis and Triantafyllidis, 2010). The decision
regarding what kind of agricultural practice to enact depends, to some large extent on theunderstanding of the climatic atmosphere of a given locality. In a predicted changing climate, andfor protected areas supporting agriculture, an understanding of local climate dynamics is thus key ininnovating ways to mitigate the impacts. Lake Malawi National Park provides fuelwood that is soldfor income alongside other non-timber forest products that support livelihoods. For communities
existing within protected areas, the need for fertile agricultural land can also lead to Park incursions.
Such incursions could lead to park-community conflicts.
The Lake Malawi National Park (LMNP) was established in 1980 (Abbot and Mace, 1999) as
the only protected area in Malawi with human settlements within its legal boundaries. A government
order at the outset, stipulated that there should be no relocation of communities already living within
the park. This scenario poses unique conservation and sustainability challenges. Key challenges
include overexploitation of fisheries (Sato et al., 2008), deforestation, and climate change (Markham,
2018). Over time, agriculture is emerging as a challenge in part due to the growing human populationthat requires more land for food production. These challenges pose a threat to the biodiversity of
LMNP.
OBJECTIVE
Climatic shocks such as droughts and their associated rainfall variability, could lead to additional
direct and indirect impacts on the protected area. An understanding of historical climatic events could
partially enable some preparedness. However, since the occurrence of such shocks is not nationallyhomogenous, this study sought to assess local rainfall dynamics in the LMNP within the national
context. Specifically, this study sought to qualitatively assess how national drought events comparewith localized rainfall trends. Secondly, to determine local rainfall dynamics during four known
drought years in Malawi and LMNP, and finally to assess how rainfall during drought shocks relates
to impact crop productivity, i.e., the onset of the growing season and overall crop water requirements.

Fig. 1 The study site indicated in map of Malawi(A) showing the relative position of the larger Chembe village community; Mangochi, (B) showing the wider Monkey Bay
area and Chembe village community (within Cape Maclear), (C) and the surrounding Lake Malawi National ParkⒸ ISERD

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METHODOLOGY
The study area comprises five enclaved villages within LMNP; 14 02'S by 34 53'E (Fig. 1). The
park is also a world heritage site. The climate is tropical with annual temperature ranging between
19.6 ºC to 21.4 ºC minimum and between 29 ºC to 30.7 ºC, maximum. Average annual rainfall ranges
between 600 mm to 1600 mm with pronounced variations between seasons. This study used historicaldaily rainfall data for a period of 35 years (1st January 1979 to 31st December 2015) collected fromthe Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services for Monkey Bay weather station,
which is the closest to the study site. The rainfall dynamics of interest were documented drought andflooding events of 1985-1986; 1988-1989; 1991-1992; 1994-1995; 2001-2002; 2005-2006; and2012-2013. This paper utilized the MarkSim DSSAT Weather Generator to obtain maps and a
Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for computation and graphics.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Reported and Local Rainfall Comparison
The study site generally showed reduced annual rainfall amounts in all the years with nationallyreported drought and flooding events (Fig. 2); five droughts and 2 floods. During the 35 years, rainfall
is observed to have been extremely variable with no clear trend in direction as indicated by the weakcoefficient of determination (r2 =0.003) as shown in Fig. 2. Overall, the data shows more drought
than flooding. It can be noted however that annual rainfall values of above 1,200 mm and below 600
mm are associated with flooding and drought respectively. After 2015, Malawi experienced twoserious flooding events; first, the 2015 La Niña driven flooding and the 2019 flooding caused bycyclone Idai (Ngongondo et al., 2021) mostly affecting the southern region of the country.

Fig. 2 Documented drought (Red) and flooding (Green) seasons/years
between 1980 and 2015 in Malawi and LMNP
Regarding the prediction of localized climatic shocks from national data, this work provides
some positive indications. The national drought records are in sync with local scale data (in terms ofdecreasing trends). This observation thus provides opportunities for the formulation of informed
presumptions regarding possible future climatic shocks for climate modeling studies. While this is
the case, the extent of such shocks, and associated adaptations, should be determined and understoodin a local context.
Rainfall DynamicsⒸ ISERD

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To assess the rainfall dynamics during these drought events, the overall distribution of rainfall wasassessed (Fig. 3). The amounts of rainfall and its duration during the crop growing season in Malawi(October to April) were compared with an 1880-81 season as a reference.

Fig. 3 Relative rainfall amounts across the six months growing season for four seasons
Including reference (Green); showing various skewness of precipitation amounts across the growing season

During the 1985-86 drought, adequate rainfall was available around December after which it
steadily declined. In the 1991-92 season, inadequate rainfall was recorded early in the season andadequate rainfall amount fell after February when no cropping could be done. 1994-95 had lessrainfall except only during January and February. For the 2003-04 season, there were some consistentmedium rainfall amounts throughout the rainy season irrespective of the national drought.
Crop Productivity
First, the general requisite conditions for the onset of the growing season (GS) and the broader
rainfall amount that support crop productivity were assessed. Fiwa et al. (2014) refer to the onset of
GS as when 25 mm of rainfall is experienced in the first 10-day period from a given rainfall event,and at least some additional 20 mm within the next 20 days after the onset of GS. Based on Fiwas’
determination, seasons 1991-92 and 2003-04 for the study site had adequate conditions for planting.
However, Allen et al. (1998) consider an annual rainfall range of 500-700 mm as a minimum
requirement for crop productivity in the case of maize. Maize has been chosen as an example as it isa staple crop for the country. From this criterion, the study site had adequate rainfall for two droughtyears/seasons (1985-86 and 2003-04).
Table 1 Cape Maclear rainfall dynamics during nationally reported drought events
The year/season 1980-81 is included as a reference. RE= Rainfall event; GS= growing season,
and REF means reference (season)

Season1985_86
1991_92
1994_95
200304(REF)-1980_81

First rainfall
event(amount;mm)
10 Oct (0.1)
13 Oct (8.1)
15 Oct (0.9)
18 Nov (0.1)
1 Oct (5.3)

The onset of thegrowing season(Rainfall 1st 10days) (mm)6 Nov (50.5)
10 Dec (76.3)
3 Dec (46.4)
12 Dec (71.6)
30 Nov (185.0)

Intervening RE
(mm)
0 (-)
6 RE (25.8)
0 (-)
4 RE (6.9)
2 RE (26.4)

RE after the
10th day of
GS onset(mm)
6 RE (10.7)
5 RE (21.1)
1 RE (3.1)
5 RE (20.4)
4 RE (42.8)

Annualprecipitation
(mm)
538.8
391.6
388.6
520.5
704.3

The season 1991-92 had satisfied requirements for the onset of the growing season but theannual rainfall was way below the minimum required to support crop production. The apparent
discrepancy between the two crop-growing requirements necessitates that they be considered
concurrently in determining optimal conditions for agricultural productivity. Another keyⒸ ISERD

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observation during the four seasons is a lack of adequate rainfall during one or both key months ofcrop growth (Fig. 3). Issues of spatiotemporal rainfall distribution within the growing season are thus
key in deciding what crops to grow.
Rainfall Return Period
An analysis of the return period shows that the highly expected annual rainfall ranges are between
500-900 mm/y during every 2-3 years. The Return period of 1000 mm/y of annual rainfall indicates
4 years in Fig. 4. From the analysis (and without absolutism), rainfall events above 1000mm(normally observed to be associated with floods) can be predicted to occur at least every 4-5 years.
In a broader sense, the area is not particularly wet. From an agricultural perspective, it is prudent forfarming communities to invest in crops with moderate to low water requirements.

Fig. 4 Rainfall return period for Cape Maclear, Lake Malawi National Park
Implications for Park Enclave Communities
The current global climate change predictions point to an increase in the frequency of drought andflooding shocks (Zhao et al., 2020). Drought events limit crop productivity as moisture is a key
determinant for plant growth. For rural communities, it entails a lack of income from Agri-basedlabor, general food insufficiency, and social instability. These pressures inadvertently lead to the useof other ecosystem services (specifically forests), leading to incursions into protected parkland. The
desperate harvesting and overuse of NTFP and parkland incursions lead to the depreciation ofprotected forest resources. Ultimately, the park’s long-term sustainability will be compromised.
Conservation of agricultural approaches is one way to adapt to rainfall variability and droughts.
Vegetables for example, due to their higher water demand than other crops (Manuel et al., 2017),
might benefit from mulching technology or utilizing seasonal riverbanks with residual moisture. With
the prevailing global change, climate-smart agriculture approaches must be promoted to ensure thesustainable utilization of resources from the National Park.
CONCLUSION
Understanding localized climate dynamics is key as it enables concerned stakeholders to makeappropriate decisions during shock events. The rainfall trends for Cape Maclear resonate withnational ones for drought years reported for Malawi. The association observed between national
rainfall dynamics and those local to Cape Maclear signal the potential of using projected national
future climatic events at a local level; especially where stochastic approaches are utilized. Suchprojection would ensure preparedness for various shocks, ensuring the preservation of the fragile
protected area. Rainfall dynamics during drought years generally indicate amounts acceptable forcrop production but with uneven seasonal distributions. These seasonal distributions are hard toⒸ ISERD

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predict, but the production of early maturing crops could be a good safety net. Overall, there exist
differences in rainfall spread, amounts, and the onset of growing seasons. The main limitation of thestudy has been a focus on rainfall only and a lack of verification of the observed climate dynamics
and actual productivity assessments. Future studies should focus on other climate variables such astemperature and how associated impacts on agricultural production.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are particularly appreciative to Mr. John Matewere and Mr. Brighten Ndawala (theleaders of a community vegetable garden in Chembe Village, Cape Maclear, Mangochi, Malawi) for
fruitful discussion and background information. This paper is based on a broader idea conceived
during this discussion. We thank Prof. Tetsu Sato, the principal investigator of SATREPS, and all
the members of the “Integrated Natural Resource Management System in Lake Malawi National
Park (IntNRMS) Project” under the SATREPS program.
FUNDING
This study was funded by the “Integrated Natural Resource Management System in Lake Malawi
National Park (IntNRMS) Project” under the SATREPS program provided by the JST and JICA
(JPMJSA1903). This work was also supported by research programs of the Tokyo NODAI ResearchInstitute, Tokyo University of Agriculture.
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