235

Perspective of Adaptation as Responses to Global Warming
Nobuo MIMURA
Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University
2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan
mimura@mx.ibaraki.ac.jp

Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol, which became effective in February 2005, has been promoting a series ofcountermeasures against global warming on an international scale under the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As a result of overwhelming impacts of the heat wave in Europe in2003 and Hurricane Katrina that devastated the city of New Orleans in August 2005, there has been agrowing concern over widespread climatic anomalies. This in turn has triggered increased interest in
adaptation as a long-term countermeasure against the effects of global warming. In particular, developing countries, including small islands in tropical and subtropical zones, are vulnerable to climate change
and variability, though they emit only small amounts of greenhouse gases. Therefore, adaptation is
widely recognized as a primary countermeasure against global warming in these countries. In this paper,
we attempt to draw a picture of the current understanding of the role and scope of adaptation by examining its purposes, nature and tools, as well as gaps in implementation and the social capacity for adaptation.
Key words: adaptability, adaptation, climate change, sustainability, vulnerability

1. Introduction
In February 2005, after the Kyoto Protocol became
effective, a new stage of the international framework
for regulating the emission of greenhouse gases(GHGs) was initiated under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The protocol
imposed targets on industrial countries and countries
in economic transition of formerly Soviet Eastern
Europe to reduce their GHG emissions to achieve reduction targets for the first commitment period of2008 to 2012. At the same time, the heat wave which
hit Europe in 2003 and Hurricane Katrina, which
devastated New Orleans in the U.S.A. in August 2005,
evoked strong concern throughout the world that
global warming had already begun affecting theearth’s climate system on a large scale. Long-term
problems, such as how to reduce the future effects ofglobal warming, have emerged along with concerns
over increasing numbers of extreme weather events.
Adaptation can address such problems. Interest in
adaptation is growing most rapidly in developing
countries, including small islands in tropical andsub-tropical regions which are vulnerable to impactsof climate change and variability while they contributelittle to GHG emissions.
Studies on adaptation, however, are still at a conceptual stage. Because adaptation is becoming a major
Global Environmental Research
10(2)/2006: 235-242
printed in Japanissue in responses to global warming, it would be
useful to review the current state of recognition andfuture tasks of adaptation. In this paper, we try toshow an overview of the concept of adaptation andadaptive measures for the coastal zones as an example.

2. International Activities on Adaptation
2.1 Adaptation in the international framework of
responses to global warming
The UNFCCC stipulates the ultimate target ofcountermeasures for global warming in Article 2.
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any
related legal instruments that the Conference of theParties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance withthe relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such alevel should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climatechange, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed
in a sustainable manner.”
The target of this convention, i.e., stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,means suppressing global warming below a particular©2006 AIRIES

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level that would have a serious effect on ecosystems,
food production, and economic development. To thisend, there are two directions: one is mitigation toregulate GHG emissions, and the other, adaptation to
reduce its harmful effects.
Mitigation consists of measures to reduce GHG
emissions and stabilize their atmospheric concentrations. On an international level, the UNFCCC was
agreed upon at the UN Conference on Environmentand Development in 1992, and agreement was reachedin 1997 on the Kyoto Protocol, which sets specifictargets for reduction of greenhouse emissions andplans for their execution. The Kyoto Protocol went
into force in February 2005 after tortuous negotiations,though unfortunately the US withdrew from the Protocol. In the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012,
developed countries and countries with economies intransition are required to reduce their GHG emissions
by an average of 5% of their respective 1990 levels.
Each country is trying to meet the target by promoting
energy-saving domestically and by enhancing multilateral cooperative measures, such as joint implementation and the clean development mechanism (CDM).
The effect of the reduction targets set by the Kyoto
Protocol is limited to achieving the ultimate objectivesof the UNFCCC, and no framework for emissions
reductions after 2013 has yet been agreed on. Therefore, global warming will advance to a greater or
lesser extent, because it would be very difficult to arrest global warming completely. In any event, it will
be necessary to incorporate adaptation into responses.
Adaptation can cover every field that is affected byclimate change: adaptive measures encompass a wide
range of areas, such as agriculture and food production, water resources, disaster prevention, health, energy, industry and the natural environment.
Both mitigation and adaptation are effective at addressing global warming, and this effect can be maximized by forming an optimal combination. Basedupon this recognition, COP10 of the UNFCCC held in2004 agreed on the “Buenos Aires programme ofwork on adaptation and response measures,” and afive-year plan (Kubota, 2006a) for studies on adaptation was initiated. Developing countries strongly seek
financial assistance from developed countries foradaptation, because such measures are effective bothfor preventing the adverse effects of global warming
and improving and upgrading infrastructures for disaster prevention, water resources and agriculture. However, there is neither a common recognition on what
constitutes adaptation to global warming, nor a clear
distinction between adaptation and infrastructure development. As a result, adaptation is expected to become a major issue in future negotiations. It is understandable that the “Buenos Aires programme of work”
started with research-type activities to deepen andshare understanding of regions’ and countries’ vulnerability to global warming and discuss what constitutes
adaptation measures (UNFCCC, 2005).

2.2 Dangerous level of global warming andadaptation
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) presented future climate projections in its thirdassessment report published in 2001 (IPCC WGI,2001). Because the degree of global warming depends
on GHG emissions, particularly that of carbon dioxide,
it varies with the evolution of human socioeconomic
systems. The IPCC’s climate projections were basedon SRES scenarios of future societies, which weredeveloped in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). In the projections, the degree oftemperature rise ranged between 1.4°C and 5.8°C
from 1990 to 2100, although the estimate varied
depending on the scenarios and climate models used.
The sea-level rise is estimated to be 0.09 to 0.88
meters by 2100, and rainfall is projected to increase
throughout this century with larger yearly fluctuations.
Changes in typhoons are a major concern in climate change. Theoretical estimates suggest that therise in sea surface temperature intensifies evaporation,
which is the energy source for typhoons, thus creating
more-powerful typhoons (Emanuel, 1987). Walsh(2004) estimated that the central atmospheric pressure
would decrease by 5%-10% by 2050 and, accordingly,
the peak rainfall intensity from typhoons would
increase by 25%. The climate model has indicatedrecently that strong, long-lasting typhoons will tend tooccur, though the number of typhoons generated will
decrease by about 30% (Oouchi et al, 2005).
Negotiations around a future framework to stabilize global warming including the post-Kyoto Protocol
frame should be based on the recognition of thedangerous levels referred to in Article 2 of the
UNFCCC. In the studies to determine the dangerous
levels of global warming, two kinds of impacts havebeen recognized: Type 1 impacts, which are those that
intensify gradually with the progress of global warming, and Type 2 impacts, which are abrupt large-scalechanges occurring in an irreversible and discontinuous
manner (Schneider, 2004; Harasawa, 2006). Type 2
impacts induce fatal changes in the earth’s environment when global warming exceeds a certain threshold. Examples include a rise of several meters in thesea level caused by the collapse of the Western
Antarctica ice sheet (Nicholls et al., 2005) and thedisruption of the thermohaline ocean circulation.
Because it is impossible to adapt to these kinds ofchanges, Type 2 effects should be avoided at any cost.
On the other hand, Type 1 impacts, by their nature,
increase gradually with the degree of warming.
Because such effects can be alleviated to some extent
by adaptive measures, the actual outcome of Type 1
impacts varies considerably with the level of adaptation. Therefore, we will focus on these types of impacts in the following discussions.

Perspective of Adaptation as Responses to Global Warming

3. Structure of Vulnerability to Global
Warming – Susceptibility, Resistance, andVulnerability
The impacts of global warming can be divided into
two: direct physical impacts (primary effects) andindirect effects (secondary and higher-order effects).
Direct impacts cause changes in the physical environment, such as droughts due to less rainfall and coastal
inundation caused by sea-level rise. Indirect impacts
propagate into the socioeconomic system and thenatural environment as a result of the direct impacts.
For example, migration of inhabitants occurs as a result of flooding; restructuring of industries and conversion from agriculture may happen due to yield decreases; and infrastructures become dysfunctional under the changed climate. Developing countries in the
Asia and Pacific region will be highly susceptible tothese indirect effects.
On the other hand, industrialized countries including Japan, will take necessary measures to avoid or
reduce adverse impacts if they face such problems.
They may raise coastal dikes to protect lands against
sea-level rise, and upgrade water resource management to prepare for droughts. In many cases, privatecompanies will also implement measures to avoid
risks. Such measures, either public or private, entail
financial costs: this means that society as a wholebears the cost of avoiding risks of climate change.
Even if substantive damages take place, victims arecovered by insurance. In this way, developed countries
have a capacity to redirect or share the damage costs
in a well-developed social system.
However, developed countries cannot always avoid,
redirect or distribute all physical impacts. As estimatesof climate change have a certain degree of uncertainty,
external forces, such as torrential rainfall and severe
droughts, may become too devastating and exceed thedesign criteria of infrastructural facilities. Other socioeconomic systems may also suffer from large-scale
impacts if disaster-prevention facilities are damaged.
For examples, the flood disaster in the Tokai area,
Japan, in 2000 (JSCE, 2000), the torrential rainfall inTokyo in 2005, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 showedthat flooding of city centers could cause tremendous
disruption of many societal activities. Large numbersof underground facilities, such as underground malls,
transformer stations, and information networks, could
suffer from major disruption in the event of flooding.
Such consideration suggests that the onset of damage due to climate change is determined by several
factors. They can be classified as follows: 1) Climatic
stimuli: the degree and extent of external forces, 2)
Susceptibility: the weakness of an exposed system toparticular influences, and 3) Resilience: the ability ofthe system to resist damage (also called adaptability).
Vulnerability can be defined as a combination of thesefactors. We can consider vulnerability in various spatial scales, such as global, national and regional, and237

for sectors as well.
Although vulnerability has been defined in several
ways, the following definition is commonly acceptable (IPCC WGII, 2001). “The susceptibility of asystem to adverse effects from external forces, and theability of the system to change and adapt to or utilize
those effects.”
This definition implies that vulnerability is not
merely passive damage to an exposed system, but abalance among the factors causing the damage and thesystem’s ability to handle them. We can express thisrelationship as follows.
Vulnerability =External force
Resilience − Susceptibility

This relationship shows that the vulnerability of asystem increases with external force and susceptibility
and decreases with resilience. Therefore, if the degreeof the external force (climate change, extreme events,
or sea-level rise) is constant, we need to increase resilience to decrease vulnerability. It is the basic role ofadaptability to increase the system’s resilience.

4. Characteristics of Adaptation and Its
Current Status
4.1 Kinds of adaptation and their characteristics
Adaptation can be defined as the process of developing, formulating, and implementing a strategy andpolicy to alter the effects of climate change and adapt
to it. The basic concepts of adaptation can be summarized as follows (Hay & Mimura, 2006).
1. Avoidance and reduction of the risks of harmful
impacts
This means taking preventive measures against the
anticipated effects, such as regulation of development in vulnerable areas and improvement ofdisaster-prevention systems.
2. Mitigation of damages
This involves measures to diminish damages thathave already occurred. Examples are measures torelieve adverse consequences of a disaster and support recovery from the damages.
3. Dispersion of risk
The concept behind this measure is to lessen thecosts of the damage by dispersing them among
many people or over a longer period of time rather
than concentrating damages in a short time. Insurance is a typical example.
4. Acceptance of risk and doing nothing
This means doing nothing at a particular time andaccepting the risk of harmful effects.
For the classification of adaptive measures, there
are several axes such as the exposed societal sectors,
intentionality and timing of implementation (Mimura& Yokoki, 1998; Kubota, 2006). Adaptation involves a

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range of sectors including agriculture and food production, water resources, disaster prevention, health,energy, industry and the natural environment. Examples of adaptive measures in each field are listed inHarasawa et al. (2003).
Let us take the coastal zone as an example of an
exposed sector, as it is among the most susceptible toclimate change and sea-level rise. In fact, adaptive
measures for coastal zones have been intensively studied since the beginning of climate change studies.
Even in its first report, the IPCC proposed three categories of planned retreat, accommodation and protec-

tion for coastal zones (IPCC WGII, 1990). These categories comprise the countermeasures listed in Table 1.
In the earlier stages of discussions, planned retreat
was promoted mainly by western developed countries.
However, the importance of protective measures has
remerged since the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 andHurricane Katrina in 2005.
In its policy on coastal management, Japan has
been examining incorporation of long-term measuresagainst sea-level rise e.g. (Research Group on
National Land Prevention against Sea-Level Rise due
to Global Warming, 2002). In addition, damages have

Table 1 Options for Adaptation of Coastal Areas. (after Harasawa et al., 2003)
Classification of Adaptive
options
RetreatAccommodation

Protection

Options
Development regulations for disaster-prone coastal areas
Land use and regional planningEvacuation from highly vulnerable coastal areas
Subsidies for relocation
Proactive planning to avoid harmful impacts
Changes of land use patterns
Protection of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves
Strict regulations in disaster-prone areas
Disaster insurance
Protection through hard structural measures− Disaster prevention: dikes, seawalls, floodgates− Anti-erosion measures: jetties, detached breakwaters− Water resource management: weirs, walls against salt water intrusion
Protection through soft technologies− Anti-erosion measures: beach nourishment, protection of sand beaches− Conservation of coastal ecosystems: protection of marshes, afforestation− Early-warning systems− Evacuation systems

Table 2 Examples of adaptive measures. (Hosomi et al., 2005)
Classification
Changes in land use

Countermeasures

Changes in land use fordisaster prevention

Buffers

Regulation of land use

Regulation of buildings

Changes in architecture

Flood-control basins
Community relocation
Regulation of development
Reinforcement andfoundation raising
Setbacks

Integrated coastal
Management systems,
management
including laws
No measures
Do nothing
Measures to improve disaster-prevention systems
Evacuation routes andSupport for evacuation
evacuation zones
Hazard maps
Information
Information, education andcommunity-based abilities Emergency drills
Education on disasterprevention
Community-based disasterprevention organizations
Disaster-recovery funds andSupport for recovery
subsidies
Economic measures
Flood insurance
Structural measures

Description
Conservation and improvement of sand dunes, coastal forests, and securing
spaces as flood buffers
Improvement of flood-control basins and reservoirs to reduce flood damage
Relocation of residences away from disaster-prone areas; support for relocation
Prohibition and regulation of the construction of new buildings in flood-prone
areas
Limiting the construction of buildings to conserve coastal zones
Pilotis; Using reinforced concrete; Elevating the ground
Making the establishment of setbacks mandatory for the construction ofbuildings in designated areas
Development and implementation of ICM plans on the basis of laws
No short-term measures to conserve the natural environment
Designation of evacuation zones in uplands and safe routes for evacuation
Publication of hazard maps showing risk zones for flooding, evacuation zones,
and evacuation routes; Dissemination of this information to local residents
Promoting collection of information on observations and climate projections,and disseminating the information
Implementing disaster drills by local residents on a regular basis
Education of local residents and children in local communities and schools
Establishment of community-based volunteer organizations to help seniorcitizens
Establishment of funds to support recovery from damage
Establishment of economic measures such as flood insurance

Flood prevention

Coastal protection facilities

Reducing damage fromflooding

Improvement of coastal dikes, seawalls, breakwaters, and water gates; Renewalof aged facilities

Drainage systems

Improvement of drainage pumps to minimize damage resulting from flooding

Perspective of Adaptation as Responses to Global Warming

been caused by high tide levels and waves thatexceeded their historical maxima during the past
decade. Such a tendency has triggered studies on new
coastal protection policies to secure higher levels ofsafety, taking into account demographic and financial
constraints (Hosomi et al., 2005), as Japan’s population is anticipated to decrease as a result of the fallingbirthrate. Table 2 shows possible concrete measures.
Integration of hard and soft measures is emphasized
through combining protective structures, such as dikes
and seawalls, and non-engineering measures such as
land use plans and information transfer for evacuation.
Secondly, regarding intentionality, there is a difference between autonomous and planned adaptation.
Autonomous adaptation is a reactive response with noproactive intervention, whatever the actor happens tobe, natural ecosystem or human society. Planned adaptation, on the other hand, is intentional actions aimed
at predicting effects of climate change and mitigating
their adverse consequences. At the same time, adaptation can also be divided into reactive and proactive
types, according to the timing of implementation of
the measures.
Table 3 shows adaptive measures classified basedon the criteria mentioned above. The affected systems
are divided into natural and human social systems. All
adaptation by natural systems is reactive in its nature.
However, this does not mean that it is impossible todecrease impacts on natural systems. For example,
landward migration of mangrove forest may be a natural adaptation to sea-level rise, but it can maintain its
area if an evacuation corridor is created landward behind it to support its autonomous adaptation.

239

4.2 Factors affecting adaptation
As mentioned above, adaptation to climate change
occurs at various levels ranging from the national tocommunity, family and individual. The adaptive
capacity required by each is determined by many
interrelated factors. Major factors indicated in Table 4
are financial resources, human resources, scientificknowledge, accessibility of information, technology,
institutional systems and infrastructure (Yoho & Tol,
2002; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001; The World Bank,
2006). These factors can be roughly classified into
resource availability, scientific knowledge and its acceptability, and levels of institutional arrangement.
Because the adaptability of each country is determinedby its comprehensive abilities, it is not easy to promote. Even if an infrastructure system, such as disaster-prevention facilities, is constructed with temporary
foreign aid, such facilities cannot continue to workwithout capital, awareness of residents and institutions
to support it. In this sense, building adaptability meansbuilding long-term social capacity.
Furthermore, it should be noted that both the impacts of climate change and adaptation differ greatly
among regions. Because water availability, frequencyof natural disasters, and agricultural patterns vary
markedly with the geographical and social conditionsof a region, adaptive measures cannot be formulated
without consideration of these conditions. In thedevelopment of adaptation, it is essential to strengthen
the resilience of the region by enhancing the traditional knowledge, technology and social institutions(Barnett, 2001).

Table 3 Classification of adaptation – reactive and proactive. (after Klein and Tol, 1997; Harasawa et al., 2003)
SystemNatural environment

Individual
Human society

Reactive measures
Change of growth period
Change in species in ecosystem
Migration of plants
Migration of habitats
Change in cultivation methods
Installation of air-conditioners

Improvement of water management system
Improvement of dikes
Local and national Anti-erosion measures
government
Beach nourishment
Subsidies
Compensation for damage

Proactive measures

Insurance
Elevating house foundations
Migration to safer areas
Information dissemination
Early-warning systems
Change in building codes anddesign criteria for facilities
Land use and regional planning

Table 4 Controlling factors of adaptability. (Yohe & Tol, 2002; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001)
Factors
Financial Resources
Human resources
Knowledge and awarenessInformation management
Technology
Social institutions
Community
Risk management

Contents
Amounts of available capital and other economic resources
Human capacities, such as skill, experience and educational level
Fundamental knowledge for understanding environmental changes and their effects andimplications
Personal and collective ability to understand and process information on impacts and adaptation
Ability to utilize the appropriate technologies and access to the necessary information on them
Status of social systems for ensuring access to information and supporting decision making
Human networks to respond to impacts collectively in the social community
Framework and capacity for sharing and distributing risks among people

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4.3 Current status of adaptation
Some studies have been performed on the adaptation to climate change including IPCC WGII (2001),
Huq et al. (2003), IPCC (2004), Parry et al. (2005) and
Hay & Mimura (2005, 2006). In this section, we will discuss some of the major points based on these studies.
4.3.1 Some points on adaptation
It is obvious that adaptation has the ability to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and toutilize its favorable effects. Countermeasures against
current metrological extreme events, such as droughts
and floods, are also effective as adaptive measures tofuture climate changes. Since the projections of futureclimate entail uncertainties, major adaptive options are
no-regret measures, which are effective at improving
today’s preparedness for hazards even if there is no
future change in climate. The costs of adaptation areusually less than those of development, and, therefore,
forecasting and planning for adaptation is morecost-effective than reactive responses.
Mainstreaming adaptation is another emphasized
point. This means incorporating the adaptation consideration in major policies, such as disaster-prevention
plans, water-resource management, agricultural andfood security policies, and environmental management, rather than highlighting the isolated adaptation.
Only this can ensure effective adaptation to climatechange.
Adaptation to climate change and sustainable
development share the same direction. Strengthening
adaptive capacity includes many activities such as
reducing human pressure on resources, managementof environmental risk and social adaptability, which
are essentially the same as those for sustainable development. This means that adaptation is an importantcomponent of sustainable development.
Regarding the lead time of responses, it has beenargued that adaptation can have an immediate effect,
whereas a considerable lead-time is required for mitigation, i.e., reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
However this is not necessarily true. For example,
Japan accelerated improvement of its coastal-protection facilities after the devastation by the Ise Bay
Typhoon in 1959 and the Chilean Earthquake Tsunami
in 1960, but it took 30 to 40 years to increase safety
throughout the country. It will be difficult for developing countries to increase their safety against natural
disasters to a satisfactory level quickly. It should be
noted that some adaptive measures require considerable lead time for implementation.
4.3.2 Adaptive capacity
The degree of adaptation depends on the adaptive
capacity of each country, region, or exposed sector.
This is because the adaptive capacity to climatechange relies on various factors, such as financial andhuman resources, scientific knowledge, access to
information, technology, social institutions and infrastructure. As mentioned above, a community’s ability
is important to its adaptation on the ground.

4.3.3 Differences in vulnerability and adaptability between developed and developing
countries
Finally, we will consider differences in vulnerability and adaptability between developed and developing countries. Vulnerability of developed countries isrelatively low, because they have developed multiple
safety nets consisting of social institutions and infrastructure. In addition, developed countries can use
their financial and technological capacities to reduce
damaging effects when they face climate change.
Though they may sometimes suffer severe damage
from extreme events as seen in the case of Hurricane
Katrina in the US, the major impacts will appear as aform of additional social costs rather than crude damages.
On the contrary, developing countries in the
Asia-Pacific region are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, because many are located on
low-lying deltas, small islands, and areas prone totropical cyclones. For these countries, the impacts ofclimate change could appear in more violent direct
damage. In addition, the Asia and Pacific region is
expected to undergo high economic growth and a
rapid increase in population. Mega-cities are growing
in the coastal zones. These factors may increase thevulnerability of the region. On the other hand, theeconomic growth may enhance its adaptive capacity
by increasing technological capabilities, economic
strength and social safety nets. However, it is uncertain how much the fruits of the economic growth can
reduce the vulnerability.
As discussed above, vulnerability differs between
developed and developing countries. Accordingly, thethreshold for the dangerous level of global warming
differs in these countries; i.e., the threshold is higher
for less vulnerable countries and the damage will be
relatively small unless climate change proceeds considerably. On the other hand, developing countries
with a high degree of vulnerability can be badly affected even by small changes in climatic conditions.
This aspect needs to be taken into account in global
climate policy from the equity viewpoint.

5. Conclusions
Although adaptation is one of two major responses
to climate change, no concrete policy movement has
emerged on how to strengthen the adaptive capacity ofdeveloping countries or how to incorporate adaptation
into major policies. In order to overcome this problem,
several tasks can be proposed for future studies.
5.1 Adaptive options and technologies
Since adaptation is a set of policies, it needs technologies and policy options as its elementary tools.
Guidelines and a menu of technologies should be
prepared for adaptation in each field and sector.
Because adaptation is highly dependent on the geo-

Perspective of Adaptation as Responses to Global Warming

graphical, environmental, social and cultural conditions of each country, these conditions should be carefully considered in developing guidelines and themenu of technologies. To develop relevant adaptation,
it is important to understand the resilience of eachregion, and to assess its traditional and indigenous
knowledge and technologies. At present, many research institutes around the world have launched studies on adaptation along this direction.
5.2 Capacity building for adaptation
The success of adaptation depends on the adaptive
capacity of each country and local community. Studies
are necessary to identify the roles of factors which canstrengthen the adaptability, particularly for community-based adaptation. This aspect has increasingly
attracted international attention. In communities, traditional mutual cooperation and consanguineous networks are important. In addition, it will be a major
challenge to incorporate the traditional knowledge andtechnologies of the communities in modern scienceand technology. So far, the policies of central andlocal governments have rarely considered the local
situation properly.
5.3 The world under multiple stresses and sustainable development
Global warming is not the only issue facing oursociety. Human society also faces other problems,such as environmental pollution, loss of biodiversity,changes in land use due to economic development,
population growth and economic globalization. It is
important to address these pressures in parallel with
global warming. The real world is under multiple
stresses, and sustainable development can be achievedby solving these problems in a holistic manner. Thisapproach may pave the way to sustainable development.

Acknowledgment
I express my great appreciation to Dr. Izumi
Kubota of the National Institute for Environmental
Studies and Ms. Mariko Fujimori of Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd., for providing me with valuable information. This research is a part of the Strategic
Research of “Comprehensive Assessment of Climate
Change Impacts to Determine the Dangerous Level of
Global Warming and Appropriate Stabilization Target
of Atmospheric GHG Concentration (S-4).”
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(Received 20 December 2006, Accepted 25 December 2006)