IJERD – International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development (2017) 8-2

Research article
erd

Ready to Drink Milk as a Nutritional Toolfor Human Capital Development of Thailand
ANUCHA WITTAYAKORN-PURIPUNPINYOO*
School of Agriculture and Co-operatives, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University,Parkkret, Nontaburi, Thailand, 11120
Email: puanucha@windowslive.com

VASINA CHANDASIRI
School of Human Ecology, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Parkkret,
Nontaburi, Thailand, 11120

SULUCK KONGKAEWSchool of Agriculture and Co-operatives, School of Human Ecology,
Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Parkkret, Nontaburi, Thailand, 11120
Received 20 December 2016

Accepted 16 December 2017(*Corresponding Author)

Abstract Ready to drink milk is one of the nutrient food for Thais as a way for humandevelopment in the long run. The research objectives were to 1) study the generality of readyto drink milk as a nutritional tool for human capital development of Thailand, 2) forecast thequantity of ready to drink milk for Thai consumers, and 3) find out the factors affected on
consumers’ demand quantity for Thais. The secondary data were collected as time series data
gathering from Food Intelligence Center of Thailand from the year of 1987 to 2014, the Officeof Agricultural Economics Office, Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives, Department ofInternal Commerce, Ministry of Commerce, Bank of Thailand. Data analysis was applied
descriptive statistics which comprised of arithmetic mean, standard deviation, linear
forecasting, and growth rate while inferential statistics composed of multiple linear regression
analysis in the form of double natural logarithm, T-test, F-test, the Coefficient of
Determination (R2) and Durbin-Watson (DW). The research results revealed that 1) ready todrink milk as a nutritional tool as human capital development of all Thai. There obviously
trended to get the high potential nutritional consume for Thai as a nutrient food for people ofThailand with the increasingly demand. 2) For ready to drink milk forecasting, quantity
demand for ready to drink milk of Thai consumers has been significantly increased as a highnutrient quality drink of essential protein and calcium for Thais. 3) factors affected on readyto drink milk were comprised of its retail prices, quantity of consumer, income per capita as
well as the advertising expenditure of ready to drink milk venders. Due to the research results,
Thai government should strongly promote ready to drink milk as a tool for human capital todevelop both physical and dietary for Thai as a tool for human capital sustainable
development.
Keywords ready to drink milk, nutritional tool, human capital development

INTRODUCTION
ASIA is no doubt flexing its muscles as a global milk producer. Recent statistics from the United
Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) show that the region
currently supplies 37 percent of milk worldwide. Thailand is well positioned in all this as its dairy
market is valued at $850 million, with UHT milk and culture yoghurt as main drivers. Although there
is a growing demand for cheese mostly from urban dwellers, cheese products continue to take a small
bite into Thailand’s dairy market. Working against it is the local consumers’ lack of familiarity ofcheese variety and benefits. In fact, most Thais tend to associate the product as a source of fat and acause of obesity (www.industrysourcing.com).
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In Thailand, the long-running School Milk Programme subsidised by the Royal Thai
Government is also fueling milk consumption amongst the young. The project daily provides 200ml milk carton to more than eight million students below the age of 12 years. Estimated cost tofinance the project this year stands at $432.6 million, with some 80 dairy companies and cooperatives
being roped in to process 1,252 tonnes of raw milk daily. FAO estimates the project to account for
more than 30 percent of the total liquid food market (www.industrysourcing.com).
According to FAO data, a precursor to the national School Milk programme was introduced in
the mid-1980s to provide an outlet for locally produced milk. By doing so, it hoped to introduce milk
nutrition into the diets of young people especially those outside of the urban and semi-urban region.
A more long-term goal was for the programme to develop in students a lifelong taste for milk. And
acquiring the taste for milk they did. Statistic show that from a low 2-litre milk per capita milkconsumption in 1984, the rate has risen to as high of 23 litres by 2002. The dairy market has likewise
increased from a 290-million-litres-a-year business in the early 1990s to a 1,146-million litres market
by 2003. The ascent continues. Whilst milk production within Thailand has grown 30-fold in close
to three decades and average dairy consumption in the Thai diet has more than quadrupled for thesame period, experts say demand still exceeds local production (www.industrysourcing.com).
Almost 30 years, the Royal Thai Government launched the national school milk programme asa nutritional tool for human capital development of Thailand. More than 90 percent of consumers inthis programme consume ready to drink milk as a nutritional food for diet in order to develop both
physical and healthy human capital. Ready to drink milk in Thailand comprised of 3 main different
types which are pasteurized milk, sterilized milk, and ultra-high temperature milk or ultra-heat
treated milk (UHT) (www.ku.ac.th).
In this research paper, the researcher tried to study and examine the situation of ready to drink
milk consumption through the national school milk programme as the Royal Thai government
provides students as a nutritional tool for human capital development. Also, the research tried toforecast the quantity of ready to drink milk for Thai consumers as well as find out the factors affectedon consumers’ demand quantity for Thais.
OBJECTIVE
The research objectives are to:1) study the generality of ready to drink milk as a nutritional tool for human capital development ofThailand,2) forecast the quantity of ready to drink milk for Thai consumers, and3) find out the factors affected on consumers’ demand quantity for Thais.
METHODOLOGY
Data collection: The secondary data were collected from Food Intelligence Center of Thailand fromthe year of 1987 to 2014, the Office of Agricultural Economics Office (AEO), Ministry ofAgriculture and Co-operatives, Department of Internal Commerce, Ministry of Commerce, Bank ofThailand.
Data analysis: Data analysis was applied descriptive statistics which comprised of arithmetic mean,
standard deviation, linear forecasting, and growth rate while inferential statistics composed ofmultiple linear regression analysis in the form of double natural logarithm, T-test, F-test, theCoefficient of Determination (R2) and Durbin-Watson (DW).
RESULTS AND DIACUSSION
The research results are expressed corresponding to the 3-research objectives as below.

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1) The Generality of Ready to Drink Milk as a Nutritional Tool for Human Capital
Development of Thailand
The Royal Thai Government implemented the national school milk as a nutritional tool for humancapital development of Thailand especially for children. The establishment of the National Milk
Drinking Campaign Board (NMDCB) by the Cabinet decision in 1985 stems from the farmers
protests of 1984 on unsold milk. A pilot programme was implemented in selected areas of Bangkok
and Chiang Mai for parents to purchase milk at 25 percent less the normal priced milk throughmonthly coupons for their children in Primary and Kindergarten schools. This programme was theorigin of the national School Milk Programme of Thailand. Over the years, the programme was later
expanded and today all school children in public schools are provided with 200 ml of free milk.
Today, the operation of the Thai school milk is carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture,
Livestock Bureau. As per the cabinet consensus in 2003, ready to drink milk, only plain milk in both
UHT and pasteurised format are provided. The success of school milk in Thailand stems is not justmeasured in terms of nutritional benefits, in previous International FAO sponsored school milk
conferences. (School milk conferences, www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/dairy/schoolmilk/school-milk-conferences.) The economic benefits and the support in national development isless known. Without school milk to provide a stable platform by which to support the growth of theThai dairy industry, the Thai dairy will definitely not have experience such growth.
2) Forecast the Quantity of Ready to Drink Milk for Thai Consumers
The quantity forecasting of ready to drink milk consumption of Thailand is expressed in Fig. 1 andTable 1 as follows.

Consumption Quantity Forecasting
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
02010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Fig. 1 The quantity forecasting of ready to drink milk consumption of Thailand
Source: Calculated from the data base of the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture andCo-operatives, The Royal Thai Government

According to the research results, from the year of 2015 to 2034, the Quantity Forecasting ofReady to Drink Milk Consumption of Thailand would be increased over time with the average
1,540,402 tons a year, standard deviation of 223,007 tons a year, and growth rate of 2.46 percent ayear.

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Table 1 The quantity forecasting of ready to drink milk consumption of Thailand
The quantity forecasting of ready to drink milk
consumption of Thailand
Growth rate (%)(Unit : Tons)
2015
1,182,299
2016
1,219,994
3.09
2017
1,257,689
3.00
2018
1,295,384
2.91
2019
1,333,079
2.83
2020
1,370,774
2.75
2021
1,408,469
2.68
2022
1,446,165
2.61
2023
1,483,860
2.54
2024
1,521,555
2.48
2025
1,559,250
2.42
2026
1,596,640
2.36
2027
1,634,640
2.31
2028
1,672,335
2.25
2029
1,710,725
2.20
2030
1,747,725
2.16
2031
1,785,421
2.11
2032
1,823,116
2.07
2033
1,860,811
2.03
2034
1,898,506
1.99
Average
1,540,4022.46
Standard Deviation
223,007
Source: Calculation from the Data Base of the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture andCooperatives, the Royal Thai Government, 2016.
Year3) Factors Affected on Consumers’ Demand Quantity for Thais
According to the research results, the factors affected on ready to drink consumption in Thailand
were expressed as follows.
LnQt = -7.88 – 0.084 ln (Price) t + 1.015 ln (GDPH) t + 0.207 ln (Pop) t + 0.486 ln (Advt) t + e(-2.406)**(-14.42)**(35.71)**(42.14)**(36.62)**R2 = 0.97, F = 328.91***, D.W = 1.86
Where (Price) t: Ready to drink milk retail price, (GDPH) t: Income per capita, (Pop) t: Numberof population, (Advt) t: Advertising expenditure, e: error term, **: Statistical significance at 99
percent.
Factors affected on ready to drink milk were its retail price, income per capita, number ofpopulation and advertising expenditure. The increasing in retail price by 1 percent led to thedecreasing in ready to drink milk by 0.084 percent while the increasing in income per capita, numberof population and advertising expenditure by 1 percent led to the increasing in ready to drink milk
by 1.015, 0.207 and 0.486 percent respectively.
CONCLUSION
Ready to drink milk as a nutritional tool for human capital development of Thailand through thenational school milk programme launched by The Royal Thai government to develop human capitalby promotion the ready to drink milk consumption for Thai young students in schools throughout
Thailand. The successfulness of this programe brought to Thai young students develop both physicaland healthy human capital.(www.fao.org/school milk programme in Thailand) From 2015 to 2034,
the quantity forecasting of ready to drink milk in Thailand has been increased significantly. Due tothe research results, factor that has biggest influenced on quantity demand of ready to drink milk inThailand was advertising expenditure because Thai ready to drink milk market structure has been
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and still be the oligopoly. The national school milk of the Royal Thai government applied ready todrink milk as a nutritional tool for human capital development of Thailand especially Thai young
students all over Thailand. In terms of nutrition, ready to drink milk is one of the diets which rich ofprotein, calcium, and other necessary nutrients for young students as a tool for human capitaldevelopment.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I, personally, dedicated my work to my beloved Father and Mother and my Family. Father who gaveme all of his unconditional love which is the greatest love of all. Mother who is the first teacher in
my life who showed me her unlimited love.
REFERENCESKasetsert University. 2017. Milk and dairy products in human nutrition. http://www.ku.ac.th
Milk Information. 2017. www.industrysourcing.com/food-beverage (retrieved).
The Office of Agricultural Economics. 2017. Ready to drink milk. The office of Agricultural Economics,
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, The Royal Thai Government.
The Office of Agricultural Economics. 2017. School milk conferences. http://www.fao.org/economic/est/estcommodities/dairy/school-milk/school-milk-conferences/en/, The Office of Agricultural Economics,
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, The Royal Thai Government.

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