Activity Report of Tokyo Climate Center in 2006
Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency

1. Operational changes in 2006
1-1 Upgrade of GDPFS at JMA
In March 2006, the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System at JMA was upgraded,and several changes were introduced in the operational climate data assimilation and seasonalensemble prediction systems.
a) The JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) was implemented into operation.
JCDAS inherits the data assimilation system used in the Japanese 25-year Re-analysis(JRA-25, see section 5-1).

JRA-25 and JCDAS data compose long-term andquality-consistent analysis data that enable us to perform better climate system monitoringand diagnosis.
b) The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis system was upgraded to the same one used in
the centennial SST reanalysis (Ishii et. al., 2005), which used optimum interpolation methodwith sophisticated data quality check.

The new SST analysis, called COBE-SST, has spatial

resolution of 1 degree latitude and 1 degree longitude and temporal resolution of one day.
The COBE-SST is used for El Niño/La Niña monitoring, climate change monitoring and theboundary conditions of seasonal prediction.
c) The extended-range (one-month) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was separated from themedium-range EPS. The number of ensemble members was increased from 26 to 50.

The

atmospheric global prediction model for the extended-range EPS was upgraded to themedium-resolution version (TL159L40; about 120km grid interval) of the JMA Global Spectral
Model for short-range forecasting introduced in July 2005 (GSM0507), in which thesemi-Lagrangian scheme and the improved clear-sky/cloud radiation schemes wereincorporated.

The COBE-SST started to be used as the boundary condition.

d) The long-range (three-month and warm/cold season) EPS was upgraded to the low-resolution
version (TL95L40; about 180 km grid interval) of the JMA Global Spectral Model for
short-range forecasting introduced in February 2005 (GSM0502), in which the improved
cumulus scheme, the improved albedo of snow and ice, and a cloud scheme with cloud water
as a prognostic component were incorporated in addition to the semi-Lagrangian scheme andthe improved clear-sky/cloud radiation schemes.

The number of ensemble members

remained 31.

1-2 Modification of the index of El Niño and La Niña
In March 2006, in concurrence with the implementation of COBE-SST into operation, JMA
modified the index of El Niño and La Niña.

The most recent 30-year sliding mean was started tobe used for the climatological reference instead of the fixed reference of the 1961-1990 average.
The region for averaging was slightly changed to the identical region with the one commonly called
NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W), instead of the former one called Region B (4°N-4°S,
150°W-90°W).

The new index is defined as the five-month mean of the NINO.3 SST deviationfrom the reference SST, defined as the recent 30-year mean. The definition of El Niño (La Niña)
events was not changed: that is, an El Niño (La Niña) period is defined as the period when theindex continues to be higher (lower) than +0.5°C (-0.5°C) for longer than six consecutive months.
Because of the introduction of COBE-SST and new definition of the index of El Niño and La
Niña, the historical periods of the El Niño and La Niña events were reexamined and identified.
Before 1990, the periods of those events are almost the same as the previous ones. After 1990,
when warming tendency became apparent in the equatorial SSTs over the Pacific, a weak El Niño
event, which was identified in 1993 according to the previous definition, is no longer identified
under the new definition. In contrast, a La Niña event is newly identified from boreal summer in1995 through winter 1995/96, and the two La Niña events which were separately identified by theformer definition during the years from 1998 to 2000, are identified as a single event.
A separated volume of the Monthly Report on Climate System, containing the features of the
COBE-SST and the new index of El Niño and La Niña, was published in March 2006.

It isavailable from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/MRCS_SV12/index_e.htm).

1-3 Start of monitoring of the global surface temperature anomaly
In May 2006, JMA started providing global surface temperature anomalies derived fromobservation data combined not only over land but also over the ocean for monitoring of the global
warming on monthly and annual bases. The land part of the combined data are composed of the
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data from 1880 to 2000 provided by the National
Climatic Data Center (NDWC) of USA and CLIMAT messages after 2000 archived in JMA. The
oceanic part is comprised of the COBE-SST (see section 1-1 b).
The detailed analysis procedures and the monitoring results are available from the TCC
website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/gwp/gwp.html).

2. Monitoring and analysis of global extreme climate events in 2006
2-1 Extremely cold weather in northeastern Asia and predominant convective activity
across the Bay of Bengal to the Philippine Sea in December 2005
In December 2005, it was extremely cold over northeastern Asia, and monthly mean
temperature of Japan was the lowest since 1948.

It was found from JMA's examinations that theextremely active cumulus convection over the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and thePhilippine Sea was deeply related to the cold weather, besides the influence of the persistency ofthe negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

The stationary Rossby wave train along thestrong Asian Jet, which was excited by the active cumulus convection over those areas, caused
the persistent and large-amplitude meandering of the jet, leading to the repetitive cold air

outbreaks in and around Japan.

The active convection seems to be excited partly due to the La

Niña event started in autumn 2005.

A report on the topic is available from the TCC website(http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/topics_20060127.html).

2-2 Stratospheric major warming event in January 2006
An unusual stratospheric major warming occurred in the end of January 2006.

In the event,developed ridge over central Siberia was remarkable at 30 hPa with rapid warming andtemperature over the North Pole reached to 40 °C higher than its normal. It was shown by thisanalysis that vertical and horizontal energy propagation of planetary-scale waves from thetroposphere to the stratosphere played an important role in the major warming.

There is anarticle on the topic in the TCC News No.4 (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/tccnews04.pdf).

2-3 Landslide in the Philippines in February 2006
On 17 February, a large-scale landslide occurred in Leyte Island, the Philippines. It wasreported that more than 1000 persons died and missed.

Up until several days before thelandslide, about 500 mm of total precipitation for five days was observed at a nearby station. It was
analyzed that this heavy rain was caused by the sustained active convection due to the confluenceof strong trade wind and cold surge from the Eurasian Continent, in addition to the orographic
effect.

2-4 Sea ice conditions in the Okhotsk Sea in the 2005/2006 winter season
Sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea was smaller than normal throughout the period from
December 2005 to April 2006.

It was the smallest since 1971 in the second 10-days ofDecember and the first 10-days of January.

Sea ice area reached its seasonal maximum of 0.90

million square kilometers on 10 March, which was smaller than the normal extent of 1.22 million
and the second smallest only to 0.86 million for the year 1984.

A report on the topic is available

from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/topics_20060526.html).

2-5 Short-duration La Niña event in 2005/2006
A La Niña event occurred from autumn 2005 to spring 2006.

It was the first La Niña event forfive and a half years. Autumn was the latest season for the timing of the development and thesix-month duration was the shortest among the historical La Niña events since 1949.

The

impacts of this La Niña event on atmospheric circulation and surface climate were clear in thetropical Pacific as seen in the past events, while they were less clear in the mid- and high-latitudes.
There is an article on the topic in the TCC News No.5 (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/
tccnews04.pdf).

2-6 Extremely heavy rain in Japan during 15-24 July 2006
During 15-24 July 2006, active Baiu front continued to be located over Japan, and broughtheavy rainfall which lasted for several days in western and eastern Japan.

Seven-day

accumulated rainfall during 18-24 July exceeded 1,200 mm in the southern part of Kyushu inwestern Japan, which was above twice as much as normal monthly rainfall for July.

At tens ofobservatories in western and eastern Japan, accumulated precipitation during 15-24 July recorded
above twice as much as normal monthly precipitation for July.
Due to this prolonged and sustained Baiu frontal activity, the end of Baiu season, rainy season
in Japan, was delayed for about 10 days from its normal dates in western and eastern Japan.
The main reasons for the sustained active Baiu front are thought as follows:
1. cold upper-air continuously flowed into Japan by the quasi-stationary and remarkablemeander of the sub-tropical jet,
2. warm and humid lower-air continuously flowed into Japan along the western periphery ofstronger-than-normal sub-tropical high south of Japan.
These two flows joined over Japan and made atmospheric vertical stability quite unstable.
This condition was favorable for enhanced and sustained Baiu frontal activity.

A report on the

topic is available from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/ topics_20060727.html).

2-7 Minimum in record of total ozone at Syowa Station, Antarctica
According to the observation conducted by the 47th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition(JARE-47) at Syowa Station in Antarctica, the total ozone above the station broke the record of
128 m atm-cm on 6 October 1995, and reached its minimum in record of 114 m atm-cm on 17
October 2006, which is less than half the average before 1980 when the ozone hole hadn't
appeared yet.
The establishment of the Antarctic ozone hole is attributable mainly to ozone depleting
substances and meteorological conditions.

While the density of the ozone depleting substances

has remained high after its peak of the latter half of the 1990s, in 2006, the low temperature areaof -78 °C or below, which is associated with the degradation of the ozone depletion, kept varying
around the maximum level of the last 10 years.
developed to the maximum level.

Therefore, it is thought that the ozone holeA report on the topic is available from the TCC website(http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/topics_20061011.html).

3. International coordination activities in 2006
3-1 Application for GPC for LRF and RCC in RA-II
At the end of January 2006, the President of WMO Regional Association II asked the
Director-General of JMA for submission for the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) status in RA-II.
RCC Network in RA-II should conduct the following five functions; operational function,
coordination function, data services function, training and capacity building function and researchand development function.

TCC of JMA has applied for it with its implementation plan, which isavailable at the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/about/implementation_plan_2006.pdf).
The Working Group on Climate-Related Matters (WGCRM) in RA-II is examining its eligibility.

WMO’s Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) asked the member countries for submission fora Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecast (GPC for LRF) in February 2006.

In August2006 TCC of JMA has applied for the GPCs for LRF with a necessary activity report, which isavailable at the WMO website (ftp://www.wmo.int/Documents/SESSIONS/CBS.Ext(06)/English/
pdf/d06-3(3)_en.pdf).

After considering its achievements and capabilities, CBS approved thenomination in its extraordinary session, held in Seoul in November 2006.

3-2 Participation in regional and international conferences
In order to enhance the international coordination activity, some officials engaged inclimate-related matters in the Climate Prediction Division (CPD) including TCC attended theinternational conferences and regional workshops in 2006.
a) Second Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (Beijing,
China: 6-8 April 2006)
Dr. Koichi Kurihara, Director of CPD, participated in the Forum as an invited lecturer andmade presentations entitled “Recent development in climate information services in JMA” and“JMA’s outlook for summer 2006”.

These presentation slides and related documents areavailable at the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/library/focraII _060412.html).
b) WMO Conference: Living with Climate Variability and Change - Understanding theUncertainties and Managing the Risks - (Espoo, Finland: 17-21 July 2006)
Mr. Shingo Yamada, Head of TCC, participated in the Conference and made a poster
presentation entitled “Development of "Early Warning of Unusual Weather Condition" by the
JMA”. This presentation is available at the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/library/
LWCVC_2006.html), and a participant’s report is documented in the TCC News No.6(http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/tccnews06.pdf).
c) APEC Climate Center Symposium 2006 and the First Session of Member Working Group
Meeting (Busan, Korea: 14-16 September 2006)
Dr. Hirotaka Kamahori, Senior Coordinator for Climate Modeling, participated in the
Symposium and made presentations entitled “Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project" and“Current Status and Future Plan of Seasonal Prediction System at the JMA”.

These

presentation slides are available at the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/library/
APCC_sympo2006.html).
d) Seventh Joint Meeting of Seasonal Prediction on the East Asian Winter Monsoon (Beijing,
China: 2-3 November 2006)
Mr. Shingo Yamada participated in the Joint Meeting and made presentations entitled“Summary of the JMA's Outlook for the 2006/07 Winter”, "Recent Progress of Climate-related
Researches at JMA", “Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter” and“JMA's El Niño Outlook for the 2006/07 Winter”.

These presentation slides and theirabstracts are available at the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/library/jmspEAWM7.html)

3-3 Cooperative development of tailored climate products with TMD and MMD
Mr. Shotaro Tanaka, scientific officer of TCC, had meetings with the Thai Meteorological
Department (TMD) and the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) successively in March2006.

He met the officials engaging in agro-meteorology and climate services at TMD and MMD

and showed the ongoing development and research about a surface climate database and a kindof tailored one-month prediction product for Southeastern Asia.

He also met the potential users

of seasonal prediction and searched their needs and requests. Both TMD and MMD showedinterest in developing cooperatively such kind of tailored prediction products to meet the users’
needs.

4. Climate data service activities in 2006
4-1 Provision of newly developed global datasets for climate system monitoring
The JMA’s long-term historical Sea Surface Temperature analysis data (COBE-SST: seesection 1-1 b) has been available since April 2006 from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/
MRCS_SV12sstdata/aboutgpv_e.htm).
The JRA-25 data (see section 6-1) has been available since July 2006 at the JRA-25 official
website (http://jra.kishou.go.jp/index_en. html).

Online registration with agreement on our data

policy is required to download the JRA-25 data.

5. Capacity building activities in 2006
5-1 JICA group training course in meteorology in 2006
JMA has conducted a training course in meteorology for developing countries every year since
1973 as one of the training courses provided by the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA), which is the Japanese official organization implementing international development
assistance.

In 2006, the course was held from 14 September to 16 December at the JMA

headquarters and related institutions, attended by eight participants from Bangladesh, Costa Rica,
Kenya, Malaysia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Uruguay.

The course focuses on operationaluse of numerical weather prediction, satellite meteorology and climate information. During 11
days allocated for climate information, the trainees were given lectures on climate systemmonitoring, long-range forecasting, El Niño outlook and global warming projection.
practiced

They

displaying and analyzing the GPV data, such as JRA data, seasonal ensemble

prediction data and global warming projection data.

Some famous climate scientists and experts

were invited as lecturers from the Meteorological Research Institute, the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, the University of Tokyo and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Scienceand Technology.

6. Outstanding research and development activities in 2006
6-1 Completion of JRA-25 Project

The JMA and CRIEPI1’s joint project on the long-term global atmospheric reanalysis, which iscalled “Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25)”, was finalized in March 2006.

The final products

covering 26 years from 1979 to 2004 started to be provided in July 2006 to registered climate
researchers and operational institutions (234 persons in 26 countries have registered as of theend of 2006) through the JRA-25 official website (http://jra.kishou.go.jp/index_en.html).

It hasalready been shown through preliminary evaluation that the JRA-25 products have advantages
over the existing reanalyses from the viewpoint of the reproducibility of tropical rainfall amount andthe representation of tropical cyclones.
The near-real-time analysis by JCDAS from January 2005 to the present began to be provided
through the JRA-25 official website in October 2006 to assist in monitoring and diagnosis of thecurrent climate system.

6-2 Statistical analysis of the relationships between ENSO and global climate
ENSO events, both El Niño and La Niña, are considered as one of the most prominent
phenomena which affect the climate over the globe.

Since historical periods of El Niño and La

Niña events were slightly changed due to the introduction of COBE-SST and the new index for El
Niño and La Niña (see section 1-2), the statistical relationships were reexamined between El Niño
/ La Niña events and the climate over the world for the period from 1949 to 2004.
maps, composite and schematic, were created.

Two kinds ofComposite maps show the tendencies oftemperature (warm/cold) and precipitation (wet/dry) for each 5 degree by 5 degree grid, withmarks indicating statistical significance levels of 90% or 95%.

Schematic maps show the areawith shading, where reliable tendency with the significance level of 90% or more is located overgenerally four or more adjacent grids.
resultsare

The detailed explanation of analysis procedure and theavailable

from

the

TCC

website(http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/climate/ENSO/index.html).

6-3 Statistical analysis of the relationships between tropical Pacific SST and global
atmospheric circulation
ENSO events definitely affect the global atmospheric circulation through broadly changing
rainfall pattern and intensity over the tropics.

Owing to the new climatological data sets,

COBE-SST and JRA-25 (see section 6-1), it became possible to do more reliable statisticalanalysis on the relationship between tropical Pacific SST indices and the atmospheric circulation
over the globe than before when various data sources with different qualities were merged.
Regression maps were derived based on the period from 1979 to 2004.

The contours show thetypical anomalous patterns in the atmospheric field when the SST index is equal to +1.0, and theshade indicates the area where the statistical confidence level by F-test is larger than 95%.
Considering that the atmospheric response associated with the ENSO is not simply linear with1

Central Research Institute for Electric Power Industry

respect to El Niño and La Niña phenomenon (Horeling et al., 2001), it seems that composite
analysis for El Niño (La Niña) events are more appropriate.

The reasons why we adopted

regression maps rather than composite maps were; 1) the number of samples in 1979-2004 is too
small, especially for La Niña events, to ensure statistical reliability, and 2) composite maps in El
Niño and in La Niña events are almost the reverse with each other, so the regression maps when
Niño.3 index is +1.0 (-1.0) can be roughly thought as the typical atmospheric response to El Niño
(La Niña) events.

Although the characteristics of regression patterns shown in this research are

not much different in general from the previous ones, it is notable that the statistically significant
areas further spread especially over the tropical region.

The detailed explanation of the analysis

procedure and the results are available from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/
clisys/REGR/index.html#sst).

6-4 Verification of the EPSs by long-term hindcast experiments
In order to verify the overall skill of the EPSs and to estimate the model’s systematic errors for
empirical calibration, long-term hindcast experiments were executed for both extended-range andlong-range EPSs.
For the long-range EPS, 4-7-month integration was executed from the tenth of each month
between January 1983 and December 2003.

Each had 5 ensemble members. The experiment

was verified according to the Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts (SVSLRF:
WMO2002).

The

verification

resultsareavailablefrom(http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/hindcast/4mE/svs/index.html).

the

TCC

website

The tercile probabilistic

prediction products, which have been provided from the TCC website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/
products/model/probfcst/4mE/index.html) since June 2005, were re-calibrated using the hindcast
experiment and put into operation in March 2006.
For the extended-range EPS, 30-day integration was executed from the 10th, the 20th and theend of each month between January 1992 and December 2001.
members.

Each had 11 ensemble

The hindcast experiment was used to make the new model’s climatology and todevelop a kind of tailored products for Asian countries (see section 6-8).

6-5 Development of an improved Ocean Data Assimilation System and El Niño prediction
systemThe Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA has been developing a new Ocean Data
Assimilation System, named MOVE (Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation) system, and an
ocean prediction model, named MRI.COM (MRI Community Ocean Model), since 1999.
are planned to be incorporated into the new El Niño prediction system.

In 2006, long-term

reanalysis of ocean was executed using JRA-25 as the atmospheric boundary condition.
the amounts of flux correction were estimated.

They

Then

With this flux correction, long-term hindcast

experiment was executed by using the new El Niño prediction system and the prediction skill for
the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific was evaluated.

It was shown that the prediction skill forthe NINO.3 SST is better than the operational system, at least up to the 7 months leads, and forthe western tropical Pacific SST, too.

6-6 Analysis about the structure and possible mechanisms of the summertime heat island
phenomenon around the Tokyo metropolitan area
In 2005, JMA started publishing the annual report on the analysis and simulation results about
the summertime heat island phenomenon in Kanto region, Tokyo metropolitan area.

It wasrevealed from the model simulation that the most important factor contributing to the formation of
the heat island in the daytime is the land use change, featuring the shrinkage of green space andthe growth of artificial ground cover, and the factor contributing to that in the nighttime is theincrease of architectural structures (urban canopy).
in Japanese on 31 March 2006.

The report for the summer 2005 was issued

The outline of the report in English is available from the TCC

website (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/news/ topics_20060411.html).

6-7 Development of the integrated and quality-checked surface climate database for
Asia-Pacific region
In order to develop a downscaling technique for one-month prediction, it is necessary to build
a high-quality and long-term surface weather observation dataset at as many points as possible.
TCC developed an integrated and quality-checked surface climate database for Asia-Pacificregion, in cooperation with the FUJITSU FIP Corporation.
This database integrated the daily observation of temperature (maximum/mean/minimum) and
precipitation from five data sources; APN (the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research),
ASEAN (the ASEAN Compendium for Climate Statistics projects), GAME (the GEWEX Asian
Monsoon Experiment-tropics), GSN (the GCOS Surface Network) and SYNOP report received
through GTS. After quality-checked by investigating internal consistency, temporal and spatial
outliers, and by comparing with the independently reported monthly values, those data weremerged into single integrated dataset.

The dataset covers the period from 1 January 1961 to 31

December 2005, and the daily climatological normals were calculated for the base period from1971 and 2000.

The number of stations, where the daily climatological normal was available in

the Southeast Asian region, was about 200 for temperature and 300 for precipitation, which is twoto three times as many as the previous one.
This database was used in developing a statistical downscaling technique (see section 6-8),
and will be used for upgrading weekly extreme climate monitoring in the region, too.

6-8 Development of the downscaled probabilistic one-month prediction products forSoutheast Asian countries
In order to support the NMHSs in the Southeast Asian region in issuing probabilistic forecast
information that is suitable to be incorporated into decision-making processes, TCC hasdeveloped downscaled probabilistic one-month prediction products for Southeast Asian countries

since 2004, in cooperation with the FUJITSU FIP Corporation.

In FY 2004, it was indicated that

there is a possibility of making appropriate probabilistic forecasts of Week-2 and monthly mean
temperature and accumulated precipitation from JMA’s operational one-month EPS outputs fromMarch 2001 to February 2004.

In FY 2005, a statistical downscaling technique was developed

and verified mainly for 7-day and 28-day precipitation amount using the high-quality and long-term
daily surface climate database (see section 6-7) and the JRA-25 data. It was found that ingeneral the multivariate regression using orographic predictor showed better skill, but the effect of
the orographic predictor significantly differs from region to region and from season to season.
In FY 2006, based on the above mentioned findings, a prototype of the downscaled
probabilistic products was developed, using the 10-year hindcast data (see section 6-4).

Maintarget in this study is the probability of above--median for the first 14-day precipitation, and that ofexceeding plus (minus) one standard deviation for the Week-2 temperature.

In the statistical

downscaling technique, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices and the NINO.3 SST index
were introduced as the candidate of predictors, besides the orographic predictor.

It was foundthat these new indices, which represent the larger-scale features of tropical circulation field, tend
to have positive impact on the skill of downscaling technique.

The country-wise verification of theprobabilistic prediction products showed significant positive Brier Skill Scores with high reliability,
which meant better skill than the climatological prediction.

7. Action plans in 2007
7-1 Operational changea) Introduction of new climatological normal derived from the JRA-25 for climate systemmonitoring (January 2007)
In January 2007, TCC is going to change the climatological normal used in the climate
system monitoring and analysis to the one derived from the JRA-25 data (see section 6-1).

Inorder to make the best use of the JRA-25 data, the base period for normal is planned to bechanged to 1979-2004. Maps and GPVs of these new normals are just about to be provided
as the Separated Volume of the Monthly Report on Climate System, No.13, which will be madeavailable at the TCC website, too.
b) Upgrade of extended-range ensemble prediction system (March 2007)
The global atmospheric prediction model used in the extended-range EPS is scheduled to
be upgraded in March 2007.

Main points to be changed are as follows;i) Update of absorption coefficient of water vapor in the solar radiation scheme, including thecontinuum absorption effect,ii) Introduction of the new climatology of aerosol optical depth based on satellite observation
data compiled by the Atmospheric Environment Division, JMA, andiii) Introduction of the improved cumulus convection scheme, including trigger function andraindrop re-evaporation.
It has been shown that this new model, called GSM0703C, has smaller systematic errors,especially in the lower tropospheric temperature around Japan than the operational one.
Along with this model change, the Breeding of Growing Modes (BGM) method, which is used
for making perturbed initial condition, will be improved.

The new BGM method gives smaller

initial perturbation than the current one in the tropics by properly taking into account instability
associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Therefore, it is expected to improve
the probabilistic forecasting skill of the MJO.
c) Upgrade of long-range ensemble prediction system (middle of 2007)
It is planned that the global atmospheric prediction model will be upgraded to the low
resolution version of the GCM0703C, described in 7-1 b, and at the same time the number ofensemble members will be increased to 50 from 31 in the middle of 2007.

In the new EPS,

uncertainty in the prescribed SST will be considered in addition to uncertainty in the initialcondition.
d) Change of TCC web server and renewal in TCC website including RA-II RCC homepage(second quarter of 2007)
The TCC web server will be renewed in April 2007.

In the second quarter of 2007, website

design will be renewed and the RA-II RCC Network homepage will be opened.

It is plannedto add some new products for monitoring, diagnosis and prediction of climate to the new
website one after another (see section 7-1 e and section 7-3 a, b).
e) Experimental provision of downscaled probabilistic one-month prediction products through the
TCC website (second quarter of 2007)
It is planned that the downscaled probabilistic one-month prediction products (see section
6-8) for Southeast Asian countries will be operationally produced and experimentally provided
through the TCC website in the second quarter of 2007.
f) Start of issuance of the ‘Monthly Highlights on Climate System’ (April 2007)‘Monthly Highlights on Climate System’ is available in April 2007 succeeding ‘Monthly Reporton Climate System’.

The report will be issued as a monthly bulletin in the PDF format

focusing on monthly highlights of climate, atmospheric circulation and oceanographic
condition.

The report will have useful hyperlinks to the detailed information on climate

monitoring and analysis in the TCC website. Around the same time, the historical maps on
atmospheric circulation since 1979 and more useful climate diagnosis products are planned to
be provided through the TCC website.
g) Start issuing the ‘Annual Report on Climate System’ (early 2008)
JMA has a plan to issue the ‘Annual Report on Climate System’ (provisional title) in early2008.

The report will include topics on the extreme climate events around the world as wellas the summary of the climate system in the previous year.
h) Upgrade of Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) and El Niño prediction system (March2008)
The development of the new El Niño prediction system, including the MOVE and MRI.COM(see section 6-5), will reach its final phase for operational implementation.

In 2007, along-term hindcast experiment will be executed using the ocean-atmosphere coupled
prediction system to verify the prediction skill of the atmosphere both in the tropics and in the
mid-latitudes.

It seems quite probable that the new El Niño prediction system has better skill

than the current one, and it will be implemented into operation in March 2008.

7-2 Coordination activitya) Organizing the international workshop on the “Applications of Advanced Climate Informationin the Asia-Pacific Region” (February 2007)
JMA held an international workshop on the “Applications of Advanced Climate Information in
the Asia-Pacific Region” on 20-22 February 2007 at the JMA HQ in Tokyo, under the auspicesof the Ocean Policy Research Foundation, Japan. Main purposes of the workshop are;i) to summarize the requirements of climate information users and to identify the prerequisite
for the climate-related products suitable for the practical use in the sectors including
agriculture, water resource, health and energy,ii) to summarize the operational and development activities on the climate information and its
applications in the Asia-Pacific nations, andiii) to identify the requirements and capabilities for the research and development of the
tailored climate information products which can contribute to the mitigation of climate-related
hazards in various socio-economic sectors.
In the workshop, we plan to summarize the requirements for the regional climate centers.
b) Organizing the international conference on Reanalysis (January 2008)
The third WCRP international conference on reanalysis is planned to be held in January
2008 in Tokyo.

Main purposes of the conference are;i) to introduce completed available reanalysis and compare features of reanalysis data,ii) to encourage use of reanalysis data for climate studies and extended applications,iii) to understand data assimilation system,iv) to discuss strategies of development and international cooperation for future reanalysis.
c) Participating in several international conferences and regional workshops
JMA is planning to participate in several international conferences and regional workshops
on climate-related matters to promote international and regional cooperation.

Major events

already fixed are;i) WMO CLIPS focal point training workshop for RA-II (eastern part) (Thailand, January),ii) WMO conference - Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services- (Spain, March),iii) Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop 2007 (USA, March), andiv) Third session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction
for Asia (China, April).
d) Cooperative development of tailored climate products with TMD and MMD
TCC will continue to assist TMD and MMD in developing tailored climate prediction products

and advancing their application in various socio-economic sectors, through the experimental
provision of the downscaled probabilistic forecast and collaborative evaluation of the forecast
considering practical use.

Additionally, through every opportunity TCC will introduce the bothand other NMHSs to knowledge and experience related to the application that has beenacquired in Japan: for example, how to establish relationships with user organizations and to
conduct collaborative research on climate information application.
e) Support coordination for the ASEAN climate data application workshop
TCC is planning to support the climate data application workshop organized by the ASEAN
sub-committee on meteorology and geophysics, if Japan is approved as a dialogue partner.

7-3 Data servicea) Monthly surface climate database service (second half of 2007)
As a new product of TCC's global climate monitoring, global surface climate database suchas monthly mean temperature at stations in the world will be made available on the TCC
website. The monthly climate data are decoded from CLIMAT messages sent by each NMHSs.
Users will be able to obtain current climatic data not only in the previous month, but also inpast months since 1982 through an interactive web page with a simple operation.
b) Data service for the global climate change monitoring (autumn 2007)
In order to support the monitoring of regional climate changes in various regions, TCC isplanning to provide long-term surface temperature analysis data over the globe on the 5x5
degree grids as monthly maps and GPVs through the TCC website. This service will start inautumn 2007.
c) Provision of Technical document about how to check the quality of climate data (January
2007)
TCC developed a technical document about how to check the quality of daily climate data,
which was used in the course of developing the integrated climate database (see section 6-7).
This document is going to be provided to the partner institutions, such as TMD and MMD.

7-4 Training and capacity buildinga) JICA group training course in meteorology (Sep-Dec 2007)
Almost the same group training course as in 2006 is going to be organized by the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and CPD/TCC will deliver lectures on climate
system monitoring, long-rang forecast, El Niño outlook and global warming projection andprovide practices on displaying and analyzing the GPV data (see section 5-1).
b) Technical transfer of downscaling technique to TMD and MMD (January 2007)
A staff member of TCC and an engineer of the FUJITSU FIP Corporation are going to visit
TMD and MMD to make a technical transfer of the downscaling technique developed in 2006.

7-5 Research and development activitya) Development of the web-based analysis and diagnosis tools of extreme climate events
In order to facilitate the analysis and diagnosis of unusual climate events and to study
climate variability and change exploiting the JRA-25 and JCDAS data, TCC is going to develop
a web-based interactive analysis and diagnosis tool.

At the first step, the system will beserved to the climate scientists in Japan, and then it will be opened to the NMHSs’ users after
improvement and enhancement.
b) Analysis about the structure and possible mechanisms of the summertime heat island
phenomenon in Kinki district, Japan
Kinki district, containing mega-cities such as Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto, is famous for
extremely hot weather in summer.

The analysis about the structure and possible

mechanisms of this extremely hot weather is being executed by the urban model simulation
experiment, including the anthropogenic heat release data developed in the Osaka University.
A report will be issued in March 2007.
c) Provision of risk maps on extreme events in Japan (March 2007)
As the first step to the risk map for extreme climate events under the future progression of
global warming, the return periods of extremely heavy rainfall were calculated at 51 stations inJapan, where more than 100-year homogeneous observation data are available.

The

product will be distributed to the related organizations which are responsible for disasterprevention and mitigation in March 2007.
d) Experimental provision of “Early Warning for Unusual High/Low Temperature” in Japan(March 2007)
Early warning information for unusual climate events has been requested by theclimate-sensitive sectors, like agriculture and energy.

The one-month EPS is thought to beable to predict the probability of occurrence of unusual high/low 7-day mean temperature
events, which are defined as the events with less than 10% probability of occurrence
climatologically, with one to two weeks lead time. In 2006, a post-processing procedure of
the EPS outputs to the excess/non-excess probability was developed and evaluated.

Then

the threshold of the probability for issuing the “early warning” was determined as 30%. After
constructing the web-based dissemination system of the “early warning” and the basic
probability prediction products, JMA will issue the information to the specific users inagriculture and energy sectors on an experimental basis in March 2007 for examining thecontents, timeliness and the thresholds of the information.
e) Publication of Global warming projection vol.7 (March 2008)
A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model was developed in MRI of JMA and is being
used for the projection of the atmospheric and oceanic climate around Japan in the end of thiscentury.

The improved version of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, named

MRI-CGCM2.3, is executed to serve the boundary condition to the regional model. JMA
plans to publish the “Global Warming Projection Volume 7” in March 2008, which describes
global/regional features of the projected climate change and that of regional ocean currents.