181

Mapping of Japanese Cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) Forests
Vulnerable to Global Warming in Japan
Yoosuke MATSUMOTO1*, Hidetoshi SHIGENAGA1, Satoru MIURA2,
Junko NAGAKURA2 and Hirosi TAODA3
1

Kyushu Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI)
4-11-16, Kurokami, Kumamoto, Kumamoto 860-0862, Japane-mail: ymat@ffpri.affrc.go.jp
2
FFPRI, 1, Matsu-no-sato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
3
Retired from FFPRI
Present address: 2-10-6, Kameyama-nishi, Asakita-ku, Hiroshima 731-0233, Japan*corresponding author

Abstract
We evaluated the vulnerability of Cryptomeria japonica (Japanese cedar) forests to global warmingin Japan, using two indexes of plant water balance. One was an index of the water supply available toplants: the effective water-holding capacity of forest soils. The other was an index of plant dryness: theratio of the annual transpiration of C. japonica forests to annual precipitation (Tr/P ratio). The effective
water-holding capacities of four types of soil were estimated from soil-water retention curves calculated
from soils’ physical properties. Tr/P ratios were calculated from the leaf gas exchange characteristics of
C. japonica and climatic data. Both indexes were projected on nationwide maps using a grid-squaresystem. Forestlands in areas with low effective water-holding capacity were found mainly in the
Mikawa and Kinki regions, and in coastal areas of the Setouchi and Shikoku regions. We predict that the
decline of C. japonica forests will accelerate if droughts occur frequently in these areas because ofclimate change. Under current climatic conditions, high Tr/P ratio areas were recognized around theTone River in the Kanto Plain, in the Kou-shin region, and in coastal areas of the Kansai and Setouchi
regions, where declines of C. japonica have been observed already. To evaluate future declines in
C. japonica forests, we calculated Tr/P ratios using predicted climatic data (average of 2081-2100)
based on a global warming scenario. The area of declining C. japonica forests may expand in the Kanto
Plain and the eastern part of Aomori Prefecture in the future.
Key words: Cryptomeria japonica, global warming, Japanese cedar, soil water retention curve,
transpiration, vulnerability prediction

1. Introduction
Cryptomeria japonica (L.) D. Don (Japanese cedar;‘sugi’ in Japanese) is indigenous to Japan anddistributed in cool-temperate and warm-temperatezones from Aomori Prefecture to Yakushima Island(Hayashi, 1951; Forest Agency, 1964; Fig. 1). This
species tolerates a wide range of temperatures andgrows well in humid areas with abundant precipitationin both the cool-temperate and warm-temperate zones.
The wood of C. japonica is widely used as material
for houses, furniture, tools, ships, vehicles, civil engineering projects, and packing. Cryptomeria japonica
has a very long history of cultivation (Katsuta, 2001).
At present, C. japonica plantations cover approximately 4.5 million ha in Japan, comprising about 13%
Global Environmental Research
10(2)/2006: 181-188
printed in Japanof the land area of Japan and 45% of forest plantations,although the coverage in Hokkaido and Okinawa prefectures is very small.
Cryptomeria japonica has large water vapor diffusion conductance and large hydraulic resistanceaccording to the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum(SPAC) system concept (Matsumoto et al., 1992).
This means that C. japonica has a tendency to consume large amounts of water, but has a low ability totransport water from the soil. Therefore, C. japonica isvery susceptible to water stress during drought.
Declines in C. japonica have been observed in low
and flat areas of the Kanto, Kansai, and Setouchi
regions (Nashimoto & Takahashi, 1990; Matsumoto
et al., 2002). Although some studies have reported thatthese declines may have been caused by acid rain, air©2006 AIRIES182

Y. MATSUMOTO et al.
Hokkaido

Aomori Pref.
40°

Iwate Pref.

Japan Sea
TohokuGunma Pref.
Saitama Pref.

Tone River

go
Chu

35°

Kyushu

Kinki

ku

Chubu

u
kok
Shi

Kanto

Kou-shinMikawaKansai

Aichi Pref.

SetouchiMiyazaki Pref.
Yakushima Island

30°

Pacific Ocean

Okinawa Pref.
130°

135°

140°

Fig. 1 Map of Japan.
Red and green text indicates regions and prefectures, respectively.

pollution, or both, this has not yet been demonstrated.
Matsumoto et al. (1992) pointed out that the primarycause of C. japonica declines on the Kanto Plain is anincrease in water stress due to dry air, and not acidrain or air pollution. Ito et al. (2002) suggested thatlow soil water-holding capacity may be a cause of
C. japonica declines.
In addition, drought damage to C. japonica stands
in southwestern Japan, mainly in Kyushu, has beenreported since the 1960s (Ogawa, 1996). The droughtdamage recently observed in a C. japonica plantationin Miyazaki Prefecture may have been caused by increases in temperature and changes in precipitation
patterns (Sanui, 1998).
According to the global warming scenario of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2001), not only will average temperatures increase,
but also the amounts of precipitation and rainfall intervals will also change in the future. These changes will
result in changes in available soil water and air dryness. This will in turn affect the distribution andgrowth of plants, particularly for water-demanding
species such as C. japonica, if the balance between
water supply from precipitation and water consumption by transpiration is altered.
Because C. japonica is the primary coniferous
plantation species in Japan, it is of concern whether
C. japonica forests will decline due to increases intemperature and decreases in soil water availability.

A nationwide assessment of the effects of climatechange on C. japonica forests in Japan has not been
performed. Thus, we estimated the vulnerability of
C. japonica plantations to global warming in terms of
the water-holding capacity of soil and the transpiration
properties of C. japonica.

2. Regional Distribution of Soil Water-holding Capacity
Forest management experience has determined that
C. japonica grows best at sites such as mountainslopes and valleys where abundant water is available.
A national survey of forest soils began in Japan afterWorld War II; thus, detailed analyses have been conducted on the relationships between environmental
factors and the forest productivity of major conifer
species in Japan. For C. japonica, soil type, geologicalconditions and parent materials, elevation (temperature), and local topography are the four most important factors affecting productivity. Among these, soil
type was found to have the greatest effect on
C. japonica growth (Mashimo, 1970). Based on thissurvey, C. japonica plantations were rapidly expanded
throughout Japan under the policy of increasing coniferous plantations. However, at that time, it was not
anticipated that climate change might suddenly
change the productivity of C. japonica.
Generally, the soil-water characteristics of forest-

Mapping of Japanese Cedar Forests Vulnerable to Global Warming in Japanland are not easily altered. However, the dramaticchanges in precipitation that are anticipated as a resultof global climate change may greatly alter water availability for C. japonica. When evaluating the effects ofprecipitation changes on the growth of C. japonica,
soil water-holding capacity must also be considered.
Soils have different water-holding capacities and canbe divided into separate classes based on soil type. We
applied index values of the water-holding capacity ofeach soil type to grid-square data of forest soils (Digital National Land Information database) to evaluate
the regional distribution of soil water-holding capacity
in Japan.
2.1 Categorization of soils according to waterholding capacity
According to the Digital National Land Information database (see Section 2.2), four major forest soil
groups (Soil Division, 1976; Editorial Committee ofSurvey Methods for the Forest Environment, 1999)
are found in Japan: brown forest soils (69% of thetotal forest area), black soils (13%), podzolic soils(4%), and red and yellow soils (2%). These fourgroups together comprise 88% of the forested area,with the remainder being immature soils or soils inother categories. Because C. japonica has beenplanted mainly in brown forest soils and black soils,
we chose these forest soil groups for analysis. Data on
soil physical characteristics from 112 profiles fromC. japonica forests (Mashimo, 1960) and 131 profiles
from Kyushu (Hotta, 1997) were converted into a
database of soil water-retention curves. The slopes of
the curves were generally gentle, at pF 1.0-3.2 (from– 0.98 to –155 kPa) in moderately moist brown forest
soils and black soils. These soils showed relatively
constant changes in soil matric potential in proportion
to changes in soil moisture content. Conversely, in dry
brown forest soils and slightly wet brown forest soils,
sudden steep increases in moisture-characteristics’curves were observed, at pF 1.5-1.8 (from –3.1 to– 6.2 kPa). Most of these soils showed large changes
in soil matric potential with small changes in soil
moisture content. The soils were classified as follows
based on the above analysis.
Brown forest soil-dry type:Dry brown forest soil (loose granular structure;BA), dry brown forest soil (granular and nutty
structure; BB), slightly dry brown forest soil (BC),and moderately moist brown forest soil [driersubtype; BD(d)].
Brown forest soil-moderately moist type:
Moderately moist brown forest soil (BD).
Brown forest soil-wet type:
Moderately moist brown forest soil in which features of the wet type are present [BD(w)], andslightly wet brown forest soil (BE).
Black soil:Black soils (Bl).

183

The soil water-holding capacity was defined using
the following formula, taking into consideration thewater available for plants:θ e = θ f – θ r,
where θ e is the moisture content at the effective
water-holding capacity, θ f is the moisture content at
field water capacity, and θ r is the moisture content at
the wilting point.
Experimental data having a high matric potential
near θ r were lacking in the data of Mashimo (1960).
Therefore, soil water-retention curves were drawn
using a lognormal distribution model (Kosugi, 1994)and θ r was assumed. Four parameters for the lognormal distribution model are shown in Table 1, i.e.,θ s (water content at maximum water capacity), θ r(moisture content at the wilting point, suitable pF 4.2[–1,554 kPa]), Ψ m (soil matric potential corresponding to the median pore size), and σ (width of thepore-size distribution), as well as the average value ofθ f (moisture content at field capacity) and θ f – θ r(moisture content of effective water-holding capacity)
for each soil type.
2.2 Mapping soils using grid-square data
Grid-square data of the geography, topography,
and vegetation of Japan were obtained from the Digital National Land Information database (Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure and Transport of Japan). Meteorological data from the Automated Meteorological
Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) of the Japan
Meteorological Agency and changing climatic scenarios were both converted to databases using the
grid-square system (Ministry of Internal Affairs andCommunications of Japan). The advantage of thegrid-square method is that it is easy to superimpose
various factors to characterize specific properties at aregional scale. Here, we used the grid-square method
for mapping, in which the area of a second-order gridsquare is approximately 100 km2, delimited by every
5’ in latitude and 7’30” in longitude. The area of athird-order grid square is approximately 1 km2,
obtained by dividing a second-order grid square into
10 segments in both latitude and longitude. A code is
assigned to each grid square based on its latitude andlongitude, and the position of this code is specified.
A nationwide map of forest water-holding ability
was obtained at the level of second-order grid squares
using the average moisture contents of effective waterholding capacity (see Table 1) for the 100 third-order
grid squares within each second-order grid square.
Attributes of the third-order grid squares were
determined from analysis of the soil water retention
curves based on soil types from the Digital National
Land Information database (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Japan; natural topographic
grid squares [G05-54M] and land-use grid squares[L03-62M]).

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Y. MATSUMOTO et al.

2.3 Regional distribution of soil effective waterholding capacity
A nationwide distribution of soil types was determined on a second-order grid-square level (Fig. 2).
The dominant soil type of the third-order grid squares
was shown if the type occupied at least 50% of theforest soil area of the second-order grid square. Brown
forest soil-dry type was distributed widely along the
seaboard from Aichi Prefecture westward. Brown forest soil-wet type was distributed only at the foot ofvalleys. Because of the limited distribution area of thissoil type, it did not appear at the level of second-order
grid squares (Fig. 2). This soil type rarely appeared at
the level of third-order grid squares inland fromTohoku to Kanto and Chubu, or in Shikoku and thenorthern part of Kyushu. Black soil was widely distributed on the Pacific side from Aomori Prefecture to
Iwate Prefecture, on the Kanto Plain, and in mountainous regions of Kyushu. Brown forest soil-moderately
moist type was the most widely distributed in Japan,
and tended to occur mainly in inland mountainous
areas.
A nationwide map of soil water-holding capacity(moisture contents of effective water-holding capacity) was determined at the second-order grid-squarelevel (Fig. 3). Low risk of water stress value (0.132)
was used the mean of moisture content of effective
water-holding capacity of the black soil (see Table 1)
in this figure. And high risk of water stress value(0.104) in Fig. 3 was used the value that 30% value(0.012) of the difference in the brown forest soil-dry
type and the black soil was added to the value of thebrown forest soil-dry type (0.092).
Regions having a high risk of water stress for thegrowth of C. japonica were distributed in westernJapan, in the Mikawa region, the coastal area of the
Setouchi region, the Kinki region, the northwestern
Kyushu region, and the coastal area of the Shikoku
region (Fig. 3, in red). This was because brown forest
soil-dry type has a low water-holding capacity and is
distributed on the seaboard of western Japan, whereasbrown forest soil-moderately moist type and black soil
are predominantly distributed in the eastern part ofJapan from the Kanto region to the Tohoku region andin the inland mountainous area of the Kyushu region.
Declines in C. japonica and Chamaecyparis

Table 1 Values of four parameters in the lognormal distribution model of soil water retention curve and average values at field
capacity moisture content and water content of effective water-holding capacity by soil category.
Water content Moisture
Soil matric potenWidth of
Moisture content
Moisture
at maximum content attial corresponding
porosityof effective
content at
moisture
wilting point to median porosity distribution field capacity water-holding
Soil categoryNcapacitysize
capacityθ3 s 3θ3 r 3Ψmσ
θ3 f 3
θ f–θ r(m /m )
(m /m )
(cm H2O)(mm)(m /m )
(m3/m3)
Brown forest
47
0.752
0.317
– 43.6
1.21
0.409
0.092
soil-dry type
Brown forest
soil-moderately
103
0.710
0.542
– 84.6
1.41
0.678
0.136
moist type
Brown forest
50
0.770
0.450
– 47.6
1.37
0.546
0.096
soil-wet typeBlack soil
78
0.722
0.578
– 59.6
1.17
0.710
0.132
Source: Mashimo (1960).
Forest soil types (Soil Division, 1976) are as follows. Brown forest soil-dry type; BA, BB, BC, and BD(d): brown forest
soil-moderately moist type; BD: brown forest soil-wet type; BD(w) and BE: black soil; Bl.

褐色森林土
Brown
forest
乾性タイプ
soil, dry type

褐色森林土
Brown
forest
湿性タイプ
soil, wet type

Black
soil
黒色土

褐色森林土
Brown
forest soil,
適潤性タイプmoderately
moist
type

Fig. 2 Distribution map of second-order grid squares in which third-order grid squares dominated by a particular soil
pattern that comprised at least 50% of the second-order grid squares of the forested area.
Brown forest soil-wet type does not appear here substantially; it can be seen only at the level of third-order grid squares.

(mMapping of Japanese Cedar Forests Vulnerable to Global Warming in Japan-３(m３3 m)）（ｍ
ｍ–3

Fig. 3 Map of the soil water-holding capacity (SWC), i.e.,moisture content of effective water-holding capacity(MCC).
Darker blues indicate higher SWC; darker reds indicate lower
SWC.
MCC (m3 H2O / m3 soil) = Moisture content at field capacity– Moisture content at wilting point

obtusa Sieb. et Zucc. (Japanese cypress; ‘hinoki’ inJapanese) forests in the Mikawa region (Nagoya
Branch Forest Office, 1997) and declines in C.
japonica forests in the Setouchi region (Nashimoto &Takahashi, 1990) have been reported. The soil waterholding capacities in these regions are low (Fig. 3). In
contrast, although declines in C. japonica forests havebeen documented in the Kanto region (Nashimoto &Takahashi, 1990; Matsumoto et al., 1992, 2002; Ito etal., 2002), a low soil water-holding capacity was notindicated in this area. Therefore, insufficient soil waterholding capacity alone cannot explain the cause of thedecline in C. japonica forests on the Kanto Plain.

3. Transpiration/Precipitation (Tr/P) Ratioas an Index of Vulnerability for
C. japonica Forests, and Projections of
Unsuitable Areas for their Growth under
Global Warming
Temperature is an important environmental factor
that influences the amount of water consumed by forest trees. Precipitation is the source of available water.
Thus, specific combinations of air temperature and185

precipitation, i.e., climatic conditions, should determine the water environment of forest trees.
Mashimo (1983) indicated that the site index for
C. japonica forests is low if the ratio of annual
precipitation to annual average temperature is lessthan 130-140 mm/mm. For C. japonica, which generally favors humid locations, the climate-related water
environment is considered to be a factor affecting its
growth in Japan. Increases in temperature and increases or decreases in precipitation due to global
warming would alter the water environment, whichmight have adverse effects on the C. japonica planted
in certain areas.
Our purpose was to estimate the areas unsuitablefor C. japonica growth using the water environment
predicted from changes in the environment due toglobal warming. We used the transpiration/precipitation (Tr/P) ratio as an index of the vulnerability of
C. japonica forests with regard to the water environment. First, we established the regionality of the Tr/P
ratio under current climate conditions and compared
areas with high Tr/P ratios to areas of current
C. japonica decline. We then determined the areas
predicted to be unsuitable for C. japonica growth in
the future from predicted changes in the Tr/P ratio
under a global warming scenario.
3.1 Calculation and mapping of the Tr/P ratio
Plantation forests of C. japonica with fixed needle
weights were assumed. The annual transpiration rates
were calculated from the needle gas-exchange characteristics and monthly second-order grid square climatecharacteristics. We used the methods of Shigenaga
et al. (2005) to calculate the transpiration rate and the
Tr/P ratio. Two types of grid square climatic data wereused: current climate (1981-2000, annual mean) andfuture climate (2081-2100). The future climate data
were converted (Nishimori, personal communication)from the second version of the standard climate scenario provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
In mapping the parameters, areas where no
C. japonica forests occurred and where Kira’s warmthindex (Kira, 1977) was less than 65°C month, which is
the lower limit for the afforestation of C. japonica(Mashimo, 1983), were excluded from the analysis.
The area of C. japonica forests in each second-order
grid square was calculated from forestry census data
(Statistics and Information Department, Ministry ofAgriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 1992). Warmth
indices were obtained from third-order grid squareclimatic values (Japan Meteorological Agency 2002),
which were derived from the 30-year average for theperiod 1971-2000.
3.2 Regionality of the Tr/P ratio and the decline of
C. japonica forests
The annual transpiration rates of C. japonica forest
calculated from current climatic data were within the
400 to 800 mm range and were higher in southern

186

Y. MATSUMOTO et al.

than in northern Japan (Fig. 4). Kondo et al. (1992)
estimated the annual transpiration of a hypotheticalforest at 300-800 mm/year, using the heat-budget
method and climatic data from meteorological stations throughout Japan. The annual transpiration of
C. japonica forest in central Japan was estimated at
approximately 610-760 mm/year using heat-pulse
methods (Tange, 1987). Our calculated values weresimilar to these previous results.
The Tr/P ratios were within the 0.14 to 0.67mm/mm range (Fig. 5). A particularly high incidenceof grid squares with high Tr/P ratios was observed in
the Kanto-Kou-shin and Kansai-Setouchi regions.
Recent declines in C. japonica have been reported inboth areas (Nashimoto & Takahashi, 1990; Matsumoto
et al., 2002). For the Kanto Plain, the Tr/P ratio washighest in areas along the Tone River in Gunma andSaitama prefectures, where signifi-cant declines in
C. japonica have been reported (Matsumoto et al.,2002). Although the primary cause of these declines
has not been determined, the climatic conditions
suggest that these areas are unsuitable for C. japonica
growth. The Tr/P ratio appears to be an effective index
to determine the vulnerability of C. japonica forest to
climatic factors.

3.3 Estimation of vulnerable areas of C. japonica
forest under changing climatic conditions
According to the future climatic scenario (20812100), the annual mean temperature of areas currently
containing C. japonica forests will increase by 2.2°C
to 3.2°C. Annual precipitation is anticipated to increase
by approximately 150 mm/year on average, althoughsome areas are expected to have increases of at least
700 mm/year, and others decreases of 200 mm/year.
Under this scenario, the annual transpiration rate is
calculated to increase from 50 mm/year to 100 mm/
year compared to current conditions because ofincreases in temperature. On the Setouchi side of the
Chugoku region and in northern Kyushu, the Tr/P
ratio is predicted to decrease compared to current values (Figs. 5 & 6) because of increases in precipitation.
In contrast, the Tr/P ratio is predicted to increase on
the Kanto Plain and in northern Tohoku.
Under current climate conditions, grid squares with
Tr/P ratios of 0.5 mm/mm or more occur in the
Setouchi region and along the Tone River in Gunma
and Saitama prefectures (Fig. 5), where declines in
C. japonica have been reported. Assuming this value
as the threshold of vulnerability in terms of climaticconditions, grid squares with a Tr/P ratio greater than
0.5 mm/mm are anticipated to expand outward on

Fig. 4 Map of the annual transpiration of Cryptomeria
japonica (Japanese cedar) forests calculated using
current climate data (1981–2000).

Fig. 5 Map of annual transpiration/precipitation (Tr/P) ratios
calculated using current climate data (1981–2000).

Darker reds indicate higher annual transpiration rates.

Mapping of Japanese Cedar Forests Vulnerable to Global Warming in Japan

Fig. 6 Map of annual transpiration/precipitation (Tr/P) ratios
calculated using future climate scenario data
(2081–2100).

the Kanto Plain (Fig. 6). Our analysis predicts that
C. japonica trees planted in such regions will be
weakened by the anticipated climate changes. If thisanalysis is extrapolated throughout Japan, the area of
C. japonica plantation forests that are predicted to be
above the threshold of Tr/P greater than 0.5 mm/mm isapproximately 24,000 ha under current climate conditions, but will increase to approximately 43,000 ha
under the global warming scenario.

Acknowledgment
We thank Dr. Kenichiro Kosugi of the Graduate
School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, for advice on
the lognormal distribution model. This study waspartly funded by the Global Environmental Research
Fund of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan(B-11-3-3, FY 2002-2004).
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