Journal of Natural Disaster Science, Volume 30, Number 1, 2008, pp1-11

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Information Simulation Model: Effective Risk Communication andDisaster Management in a Mixed Cultural Society
Virginia CLERVEAUX1, Toshitaka KATADA2 and Kyohei HOSOI3
Doctoral Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Gunma University
2
Prof. Department of Civil Engineering Gunma University
3
Master of Engineering, Non-Profit Organization, Institute of Social Technology, Japan
1(Received for 1 Feb., 2007 and in revised from 20 June, 2008)

ABSTRACTDisaster management planning requires an understanding of the issues facing a mixed cultural society to ensure
effective risk information/ communication. Irrespective of the length or status of abode in the migrant destination,international standards require timely and effective communication of emergency disaster information to all.
Therefore, if disaster managers are to effectively meet this challenge, models and tools must be developed toensure efficient and equitable dissemination of information to all residents, at all phases of the disaster management cycle. We developed an information simulation model for ensuring effective dissemination of disaster information in a mixed cultural society in order to ensure effective disaster management.
The model will be an effective tool for:(1) Communicating disaster risk and evacuation information in a mixed cultural landscape.
(2) Planning disaster risk and evacuation response.
(3) Educating decision makers on the relationship between disaster risk, information timing, and response time.

1. INTRODUCTION
A critical prerequisite to effective disaster management is tominimize the impact of hazards through effective communicationof risk information in a timely manner and in a form that all stakeholders can comprehend. However, achieving this prerequisite is amajor challenge for disaster managers, especially in an increasingly
globalized world characterized by higher levels of multiculturalism
as more people migrate to locations outside their culture zones
where not only the language differs, but also perceptions of andattitudes towards hazard/disaster risk (Martin, 2003).
Considerable research has focused on the effects of culture on
receiving and responding to warning messages. Research has
found that racial and ethnic minorities are less likely to accept awarning message as credible without confirming it with othersources, such as family and social networks, often delaying reaction (Fothergill et al., 1999; Lindell and Perry, 2004). For example, after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Hispanics were more
likely to have secured information from family and friends, while
Anglos relied on formal English-language sources (Phillips andEphraim, 1992). Researchers studying the 1995 F5 tornado in
Birmingham found that fewer African Americans used television
as their primary information source. African American and
Hispanic households were less likely to evacuate for Hurricane
Andrew (Gladwin and Peacock, 1997).
While this tendency to confirm and delay has been substantiated in numerous studies, it is important to recognize that differences

exist among and within minority groups. For example, in one
study, Mexican Americans reported using social networks to confirm information more often than African Americans (Perry andMushkatel, 1986; see also Blanchard-Boehm, 1997). Furthermore,each population carries internal diversity: being Hispanic may
mean that one s cultural framework for interpreting a warning
message derives from Spain, Puerto Rico, Mexico, South America,or the Philippines. Some racial and ethnic differences in disaster
response can be explained by other conditions such as poverty or
geographical location in hazardous areas, but even when these factors are isolated, cultural differences appear to be an important factor related to warning messages (Lindell and Perry, 2004).
Research conducted in 2000 by the International Labour
Organization (ILO) (cited in Jones Rochelle) suggests that genderis an important dimension within disasters such as the Indian
Ocean tsunami. It has been argued that vulnerability to natural disasters and their consequences is gendered and socially constructed,
meaning that women and men face different challenges during natural disasters because their roles in society have been constructeddifferently. According to Morrow and Enarson (1999) (cited inPhillips and Morrow 2005), gender often works indirectly to affectdisaster response. For example, the majority of single parents arefemale and approximately 40 percent have household incomes
below the poverty line. It is therefore not surprising that many single mothers report difficulties in being able to respond effectively
to hurricane warnings by preparing their homes and/or evacuating.
Gender roles often place women and men in locations that influ-

KEY WORDS: Information Simulation Model, Risk Communication, Mixed Culture, Disaster Management, Disaster Management Cycle

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V. CLERVEAUX, T. KATADA AND K. HOSOI

ence their vulnerability. For example, all of the women in the
coastal village of Lampuuk, Indonesia were killed by the tsunami
on 26 December, 2004, while children at school and men fishing at
sea were spared (Times Online, 2005). Additionally, in many
Islamic societies, communication is often limited to persons of thesame sex i.e., men to men and women to women. This type ofcommunication relationship often prevents women from receiving
valuable disaster information that can save their lives.
Although reviews of the research literature indicate that few
systematic data exists regarding minority groups in disaster (Whiteand Haas, 1975:181-193; Cochrane, 1975:36-40), the informationthat is available suggests that minorities experience difficulties in
adaptation that differ from those experienced by nonminorities.
The probable existence of such difficulties is reflected, in somecases, by differentials in death and injury rates. Red Cross fatality
counts indicate that disaster deaths are disproportionately highamong ethnic minorities (Trainer and Hutton, 1972:5). The apparent discrepancy in death and injury rates between minority groups
and other victims may be a function of any of these factors, or possibly of another factor; the differences may be a function of differential coping skills related to understanding emergency instructions―whether these instructions are communicated as part of a hazard
warning or in a community emergency preparedness plan. Or, thedifferences may be due to differing willingness to undertake effective protective action once the emergency instructions are received.
Minority group members, especially those whose primary language
is not English, would appear to be more subject to the warningrelated difficulties just described than would nonminorities (Perryet al., 1982).
The ultimate goal of communicating forecasts, watches, andwarnings is to motivate individuals to take appropriate action.
However, before they do so, most persons move through a multistage decision-making process. Researchers characterize theprocess using a variety of terms, but in general, messages need tobe heard and attended to, a process that requires comprehension
and, quite frequently, confirmation. For action to occur, the recipient must believe that protective action is necessary and possible.
The message must be personalized in order to motivate the desired
behavioural response (Lindell and Perry, 2004; Mileti, 1999).
People often wait to act while confirming the message (Mileti,1999). Studies over the last two decades have identified populationdifferences in the sources various groups tend to turn to for confirmation of information. However, a clear finding is that social networks are critical resources for confirming the personal relevanceof a message. This appears to be especially true for women andsome racial and ethnic groups (Fothergill et al., 1999; Fothergill,1999). Getting those at risk to heed forecasts and warnings, then,requires tapping into those social networks (Heinz Center, 2002).
Therefore, the challenge for disaster managers is to design effective tools/strategies that not only span language differences, butalso take into consideration race and ethnicity, gender, cultural perceptions and attitudes, etc. so that the objectives of disaster risk
reduction can be achieved. If we want people to heed risk communications, then warning messages must mean something tothem (Handmer, 2002). To illustrate, there is considerable evidence that women are more likely to believe warnings, to warn others, and to want to respond. (See Major and Atwood, 2004 for a
recent example.) Researchers have theorized that meaningfulness

based on gender is influenced by female socialization patterns, particularly norms compelling women to obey authority and to bear
responsibility for the family (Morrow and Enarson, 1999). Useful
research must thus understand behavioural responses within a complex array of structural and situational variables. For example,
research on racial and ethnic families, although limited, suggeststhat Mexican Americans may wait to take action until the entire
family has been gathered, a behavioural pattern resulting from culturally based values of the importance of the family. It takes
longer for large families to respond, and minority families are more
likely to be multigenerational. A family that has recently arrived in
the U.S. may face a frustrating series of barriers between safety andcritically needed information.
Language is a defining criterion of culture; differences in language can prove a formidable barrier to effective risk communication for disaster managers. Given that learning a new language
requires time and patience, recent immigrants as well as visitors toa country may experience information communication gaps. In
fact, some elderly people may never develop the language skills
required to effectively communicate in a new society. Therefore,
disaster managers need to ensure that emergency preparedness andresponse information is communicated in a manner that will befully understood and accepted by different cultural groups. It is
important to note that, during an emergency situation, language
skills that are normally adequate may be impaired due to stress andpressure (Solis et al., 1995). Consider the classic study of theSaragosa, Texas tornado where two problems contributed to theloss of life among Spanish speakers (Aguirre et al., 1987). The
first was an incorrect translation of the word warning fromEnglish into Spanish (Enarson et al., 2004) (cited in Phillip andMorrow, 2007). The second problem occurred because a Spanishlanguage television station did not broadcast local warnings.
Language barriers have been shown to affect all aspects of the disaster management cycle, from mitigation and response to recovery.
For example, Subervi-Velez et al. (1992) found that disaster agencies had too few bilingual staff for Spanish speakers and were evenless prepared for Asian victims. After Hurricane Andrew, much of
the early relief information was provided only in English, preventing area Latinos and Haitians from receiving needed food, medical
supplies, and assistance information (Yelvington, 1997). Given thecomplexities of effectively communicating to mixed culturalgroups, multiple mediums or channels should be used to communicate with residents during all stages of the disaster management
cycle because different groups find different sources credible. For
example, after the Whittier Narrows earthquake, some Latinos
reported that the English-language radio tended to have better
information than the Spanish-language stations; the sole Chinese
newspaper was out of date and the Hispanic radio stations focusedon human-interest stories, which resulted in these ethnic communities receiving incorrect information (Bolten et al., 1993).
The increase in the frequency and intensity of disasters andtheir associated damage in the Caribbean region is part of a worldwide trend, which results from growing vulnerability and may
reflect changing climatic patterns. In the last ten years in the
Caribbean and Latin America alone, natural hazards resulted in thedeaths of more than 45,000 people, affected 40 million people andcaused over $32 billion in damage (IADB, 2006). At the sametime, development and disaster-related policies have largely

INFORMATION SIMULATION MODEL: EFFECTIVE RISK COMMUNICATION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN A MIXED CULTURAL SOCIETY

focused on emergency response, leaving a serious underinvestment
in natural hazard prevention and mitigation (IADB, 2006).
However, recently, these countries have been gradually shiftingfrom disaster response to a more proactive approach to disastermanagement. While global risks seem to be increasing since 1992,
the overall level of assistance available for emergencies in theworld has been shrinking. These trends make it all the more necessary for the region to break the cycle of destruction and reconstruction and address the root causes of vulnerability, rather than merely
treating its symptoms when disasters happen.
Although it is almost impossible to fully recoup the damage
caused by a disaster, it is possible to minimize the potential risks
by developing early warning strategies, preparing and implementing developmental plans to provide resilience against such disasters, mobilizing resources including communication and tele-medicinal services, and helping in rehabilitation and post-disaster reconstruction. In order to achieve these disaster loss reductions, communication of information to key sectors and vulnerable populations in multiple languages in a multicultural jurisdiction will haveto play a central role in the disaster management cycle. The disaster management cycle illustrates the ongoing process by which various stakeholders in society plan for and reduce the impact of disasters, react during and immediately following a disaster, and takesteps to recover after a disaster has occurred. Appropriate action at
all points in the cycle leads to greater preparedness, better warnings, reduced vulnerability, or the prevention of disasters during
the next iteration of the cycle. The complete disaster management
cycle includes the shaping of public policies and plans that either

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modify the causes of disasters or mitigate their effects on people,
property, and infrastructure. It is in this regard that the information
simulation model was designed to assist disaster managers in planning and putting in place effective strategies to enhance disastermanagement.
2. OUTLINE OF THE INFORMATIONSIMULATION MODEL
Information Transmission Simulation Model
Through various communication channels such as the mass
media, loudspeakers, patrol cars, cellular phones, etc., the information simulation model disseminates warnings and other relevant
information from the authorities to the public. In addition, themodel depicts informal means of communication, such as telecommunication and face-to-face contact, which occur between residents (Fig. 1).
The basic structure of this simulation model is constituted
according to the biased net model (Rapoport, 1979), which is ahuman network formation theory in mathematical sociology. The
biased net model is a probability-theory-network generation model
developed by imitating the information transfer structure of a nerve
cell. The biased net model was applied to research for a friend
selection problem by Fararo (1981), Skvoretz, (1985), etc. in social
science. The basic structure of this model is similar to the originalmodel developed by Katada et al. (2006) for use in Japan, which isconsidered a monocultural society. Both models take into consideration the:Fig. 1 Web of Communication during adisaster event

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V. CLERVEAUX, T. KATADA AND K. HOSOI

1. Establishment of various communication mediums (patrol car,cell phone, oral communication, media, and loudspeaker).
2. Setting up of communication facilities’ parameters (audible
distance for loudspeakers and patrol car speakers and frequency and timing of information dissemination).
3. Siting of communication facilities and shelters.
4. Shortest and safest evacuation route (parameter: evacuation byfoot).
5. Relationship between information-receive time, residents
behaviour, and impact of disaster.
The information simulation model was adapted and modified
for use in a multicultural and multilanguage environment. One of
the main features of this model that differentiates it from otherexisting models is the fact that this model recognizes that language
barriers can significantly hinder appropriate responses to disastermanagement by impeding communication and understanding ofrisk information. Therefore, a new parameter of multiple language for dissemination of risk information was added. The
model also took advantage of the prevalence of cellular phones insociety and utilized this medium to transmit information in multiple languages via SMS while also dispatching patrol cars withloudspeakers to various communities and disseminating risk information in the order of the prevalence of the languages spoken inthat community. The information simulation model is based on themulticultural and multilanguage environment of the Turks andCaicos Islands (TCI).
3. USE OF THE MODEL IN ENSURING
EFFECTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Effective disaster management helps to eliminate or reduce theprobability of disaster occurrence, or its effects on societies.
Ensuring that effective mitigation measures are in place so that disaster managers and residents can effectively respond to disasters isimportant to disaster loss reduction. In this regard, the key steps inensuring successful disaster management strategies are: planning,communicating, and the ability to effectively respond during a disaster.
3.1 PLANNING
A key mitigation or preparedness measure is to imagine aworst-case scenario and then to prepare to respond to such a scenario. Planning for a disaster involves first identifying vulnerable
populations, identifying the location of shelters, assessing evacuation routes, establishing communication networks to be used fordissemination of information, and educating residents on the hazard and meaning of warning messages and the various communication mediums that will be utilized.
(1) Siting of Shelters and determining evacuation routes
Using GIS as a base framework, the model identifies the best
location for siting shelters. For example, the model allows the simulation of different inundation depths based on flooding that mightoccur from a tsunami or due to heavy rainfall. Using an X and Y
coordinate system, the locations of shelters and residences can be
identified and therefore, not only can the shortest evacuation route
be found but multiple routes to each shelter can be identified in theevent that the shortest route becomes impassable. The same principle discussed above can be used to determine the level of vulnera-

bility of existing shelters and evacuation routes and to decide
whether they should continue to be used.
(2) Setting of Loudspeakers and Patrol Car Routes
The model enables disaster managers to decide where to
strategically position each loudspeaker so that maximum use canbe made of the audible range of the speakers. The model allows
one to select the best routes for dispatching patrol cars to disseminate disaster information to the public based on parameters such as
areas that fall outside the audible range of the fixed loudspeakers.
The maximum distance and the speed that each patrol car will be
required to travel can be determined in advance by using the tsunami scenario simulator and as such, disaster managers will be able
to calculate the information-receive time for each area (Fig. 2).
(3) Ascertaining Evacuation Time
Using the model, disaster managers would also be able to calculate how much time residents would require if they were to safely evacuate to the nearest shelter from their home on foot (Fig. 3).
In other words, Fig. 3 is a calculation or determination of the distance from residences to shelters by foot at a constant speed. For
instance, if someone is located in the red-coloured region on themap, according to the simulation, they would require over 20 minutes at a speed of 80 meters per minute in order to safely complete
evacuation. It therefore means that for each minute that evacuation
is delayed, either because of an impediment in the relay of warning
information from officials or because of the time frame requiredfor household decision making, that particular household will haveless time to safely complete evacuation, and will therefore face agreater chance of being caught in the tsunami than someone wholives 5 minutes from a shelter or someone who undertook evacuation immediately following the earthquake occurrence or receipt of
warning information. This type of information is relevant to bothdisaster decision makers and heads of households in terms ofassessing the relationship between evacuation time and the numberof casualties.
(4) Assisting in the Evacuation Process
Having identified the possible extent of damage due to a hazard, disaster managers can begin to plan to ensure that sufficient
shelters have been located, emergency supplies have been identified and stored, and evacuation vehicles are available, etc. The
model is also able to consider individual characteristics such as disability, age, sex, etc, and simulate different scenarios, thus providing disaster managers with insight into the needs of the residents
that will be required to evacuate, thus ensuring effective planning.
(5) Identifying Key Stakeholders for Disaster Management
Efficient disaster management usually requires coordinatedefforts with several agencies/organizations. As such, disaster managers need to identify all appropriate disaster response and recovery services. These can range from police, fire, and ambulance services to maintenance workers. Liaisons should be maintained withlocal emergency services so that they can respond appropriately inthe event of a disaster. Obtaining multiple modes of contact fromstakeholders in advance of a disaster and inputting these into themodel database will allow for the easy retrieval and updating of
information, in an attempt to avoid communication obstacles during a disaster.
(6) Simulation Exercise
Lastly, having decided which mediums will be used to disseminate disaster information, the language order in which disaster

INFORMATION SIMULATION MODEL: EFFECTIVE RISK COMMUNICATION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN A MIXED CULTURAL SOCIETY

Fig. 2 Estimated Information Receive Time by District in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands

Fig. 3 Estimated Evacuation Time by District in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands

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information will be disseminated depends on the area, and having
put measures in place to mitigate against disasters, the next step isfor disaster managers to test these plans. The only way to ensurethat these plans can be effectively implemented is to test them in
regular exercises on bases such as the reliability of their warning
systems, emergency communications systems, and evacuationplans and providing training to emergency personnel. Exercises
provide the only comprehensive way of realistically evaluating
contingency plans and are therefore an important management toolfor informing and motivating personnel and giving confidence tothose who may be required to respond in a crisis while allowing
scrutiny of their responses under controlled conditions. They
should therefore reflect reality as far as is practicable.
Additionally, they coordinate the activities of those who may be
involved in responding to an incident allowing for teamwork andthe achievement of disaster management goals.
3.2 COMMUNICATION
Communication is critical during an emergency and needs tobe addressed thoroughly within the disaster response plan. During
the onset of a disaster, from a hazard loss reduction viewpoint,
transmission of disaster information in a prompt and efficient manner to residents is very important. The key to a successful communication strategy is the ability to send and receive messages using avariety of devices. The model employs a wide range of communication mediums/devices for dissemination of disaster information.
These include loudspeakers, patrol car speakers, cell phones, themedia, and an oral communication network. This wide range ofcommunication mediums helps to ensure that disaster managers are
mindful of the cultural context of their landscape and that the language of information disseminated is reflective of the cultural networks that are present in the society. More importantly, the model
anticipates communication challenges such as power outages andtherefore uses mediums such as loudspeakers and patrol cars to
overcome these potential obstacles.
(1) Use of Loudspeakers
Loudspeakers can be used to transmit a unique sound (such as
the sound of blowing a conch shell) for communicating disaster
information. For example, three pitches can be composed and eachpitch can be used to communicate three main phases of disaster
information: Pitch 1: A large earthquake has just occurred at X
location. Pitch 2: There is a possibility that the country might beaffected by a tsunami; prepare to evacuate. Pitch 3: Evacuate
immediately. The use of sound instead of language via the loudspeakers will ensure that there is no ambiguity or incorrect translation of the risk information being communicated to mixed culturalgroups. The audible range of each speaker can be decided from thedesign stage in order to ensure that the maximum number of residents is covered and that the information being transmitted is clear.
The model also recognizes that if loudspeakers are to be efficiently
located without transmission overlap, some areas will be peripheral
to the transmission range and will therefore not be covered.
Therefore, patrol cars could be used to provide information to theseareas.
(2) Use of Patrol Cars
As in the case of fixed loudspeakers, the audible range ofpatrol car speakers can be determined allowing disaster managers
to determine what percentage of the population falls within the

audible range of either a fixed loudspeaker or the speakers of thepatrol cars. As such, disaster managers will be able to ascertain
what percentage of the population will have access to disaster
information. For areas that have mixed cultural groups residing
together, the population size, nationality, and primary language ofeach household could be determined and plotted on the map. This
information is important in identifying the locations of ethnic
groups, since there is a tendency for persons from similar backgrounds to cluster together, and would also allow emergency managers to better customize the risk information. For each district,the primary language of each household can be tabulated and thevarious spoken languages can be grouped (English, French-Creole,
Spanish, other). These languages can then be assigned a ranking
based on prevalence, and the rank can be used to determine theorder in which the patrol cars would relay the warning information.
For instance, if the dominant language in a district were FrenchCreole, this language would be given priority in transmission.
(3) Use of Cellular Phonesi. Text Messages (SMS)
Use of text messages to transmit warning information to the
public is an effective medium but one that is greatly underutilized
during emergencies. Due to the growing use of cell phones world
wide, it is believed that use of this medium to communicate will
enable disaster managers to quickly transmit information in multiple languages. While it takes longer to type a message than to
speak it, SMS can prove to be a reliable method of communication,even in more-severe incidents, because SMS requires less bandwidth, and SMS messages can often be sent even when there isinsufficient bandwidth for voice calls.
ii. Ring Tone
An emergency ring tone with different pitches, similar to theone designed for use with the loudspeakers, can be used to alert
residents of the imminent threat of a hazard. During an emergency
situation, cooperation between the government and cell phone
operators in the country will allow the government to transmit thatsound to all cell phone holders. This sound would be heard even if
the persons cell phone were turned off or is on silent mode,increasing the distribution of information.
(4) Use of the Mass MediaThe mass media can be used at all phases of the disaster management cycle as long as communication facilities have not been
destroyed. Before the onset of a hazard, the mass media can beused to prepare residents for the impact of the hazard. During theoccurrence of the hazard, the mass media can be used to keep residents abreast of the situation that exists outside their homes andwhen the threat has passed. The disaster information that is to be
relayed to the residents will be issued directly from relevant government officials in the respective languages. This will help toensure uniformity in the information that is released to the public,
irrespective of the language in which it is being disseminated. If
individuals are located outside the audible range of both the loudspeakers and the patrol car speakers routes, then the media can berelied upon for transmission of risk information to those residents.
(5) Use of Oral Communication
A key feature of the information simulation model is its integration of oral communication among residents. In the context of
this model, communication takes place between residents via
telecommunication and face-to-face contact. This parameter was

INFORMATION SIMULATION MODEL: EFFECTIVE RISK COMMUNICATION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN A MIXED CULTURAL SOCIETY

incorporated because in many societies and especially those that
contain large mixed-culture groups, there is a tendency towards
mistrust of government officials and a warning message is therefore less likely to be accepted as credible without confirming itwith other sources, such as family and social networks, which often
delays reaction (Fothergill et al., 1999; Lindell and Perry, 2004).
This view is supported by Katada et al. (2006), who stated that
there is an increase in oral communication between residents during a disaster compared to normal days and that communication
parameters, such as distance of each contact, number of contacts(receivers), and timing of each contact, that usually exist on normaldays, tend to decrease.
In the Caribbean, communication between neighbours, family,
and friends to verify an official warning message, but more frequently for deciding what action to undertake, is commonplace andhas been found to influence evacuation responses greatly (Spence
et al., 2004). In addition, during a disaster, there is an increased
demand by residents for updated information from officials on thestatus of the hazard (Katada et al., 1996). However, there is thepossibility that communication systems could be damaged during adisaster and as such, oral communication networks will prove to bean effective medium.
The wide range of mediums used to communicate disaster
information, both written and sound, is very important in ensuringthat all social classes in society are targeted and reached in theevent of a disaster. Effective communication with people of different cultures is especially challenging, since cultures provide people
with ways of thinking, seeing, hearing, and interpreting the world.
Thus, the same words can mean different things to different people
from different cultures, even when they talk the same language.
When the language is different, and translation is needed in order
to communicate, the potential for misunderstanding increases(Phillips, B. et al., 2005).
(6) Dissemination of Information in Multiple Languages
Trends in disaster impact have shown that disasters, however‘natural’, are profoundly discriminatory. Wherever they hit, preexisting structures and social conditions determine that some members of the community will be more affected than others. Amongthe differences that determine how people are affected by such disasters is that of language. The inclusion of the language parameterin the model was intended to inform disaster managers of the gap
in designing a warning relay framework for dissemination in amonolanguage while operating in a multicultural and multilanguage environment.
For this paper, several scenarios were simulated using thecommunication mediums utilised in the model. The results for oneof the scenarios using fixed loudspeakers indicated (Table 1) thatwhen warning information is relayed, for example, in English once
following an earthquake occurrence, 10.25 percent of the Englishspeaking population would receive the information. Of the population that speaks both English & French, 8.35 percent would receive
the warning. It is then assumed that this group (English/French)
would then contact their friends or family who do not speak
English and relay the warning to them in French, thus resulting in
0.37 percent of the French population being informed. Of the population that speaks English and other language, 10.74 percent of
the population would have received the information and would
later relay the warning to the population segment that speaks

7other language, thus resulting in an additional 0.81 percent of
the population being informed. Since no segment of the population
spoke English and Spanish or French and Spanish, that group did
not receive the information.
Table 1 illustrates the dangers of transmitting warning information in one language in a multilanguage society. For example,
when the language of dissemination is Spanish, only Spanish
speakers received the warning information. While the data depicted in Table 1 are based on just one of the many possible scenariosthat can occur, although not necessarily in the language order utilized, it nonetheless builds a strong case for the need to disseminate
warning information in multiple languages when operating in a
multicultural and multilanguage society.
When more than one medium was used to relay warning information (Table 2) (patrol car speakers and fixed loudspeakers) once
following the occurrence of an earthquake, there was an increase of
17.6 percent in the total number of persons who would receive thewarning. Additionally, both tables revealed that the more theinformation is relayed, the greater the percentage of the populationthat would receive the information. This therefore indicates thatthe more mediums that are utilized and the more frequent the information dissemination, the greater the chance of reaching a larger
audience.
The same argument can be made for using multiple languages
to disseminate warning information. The more languages used todisseminate warning information, the wider the cross section ofsociety that the information will reach. For example, using both
Table 1 and 2 above, if the warning information was disseminatedin English and Spanish simultaneously, it means that persons whoare bilingual and can speak English/French would be able to relay
the warning to persons who speak French only. Assuming that the
information was also communicated in Spanish, it therefore meansthat the Spanish population would have also been warned andwould not be dependent on someone being bilingual, that is, speaking either English/Spanish or French/Spanish, to relay the information to them. While it is true that often in societies, there are persons that are bilingual and in some case multilingual, one cannot
depend solely on this technique for dissemination of risk information. Instead, measures must be put in place to ensure that there isno discrimination in the dissemination of relevant information to
populations at risk. Additionally, the presence of bilingual andmultilingual persons in a society should be seen as a means of reinforcing or complementing existing multilingual communication
frameworks in reaching persons that the main stream communication medium might have failed to reach. Therefore, disaster managers cannot continue to ignore the multicultural aspect of disastermanagement and persist in the use of a one size fits all policy
approach in dealing with disasters in multilanguage communities.
3.3 RESPONSE
People at risk from disasters, whether natural or humaninduced, can take actions that save lives, reduce losses and speed
response, and reduce human suffering when they receive accurate
warnings in a timely manner. Effective warnings should, in a timely fashion, reach every person at risk who needs and wants to bewarned, regardless of the current location or activity being undertaken because effective disaster preparedness and response isimportant for sustainable development. However, in order to8

V. CLERVEAUX, T. KATADA AND K. HOSOI

Table 1

Information Receive Rate by Language and Time for Loudspeakers only

Table 2 Information Received Rate every Language & Spread Times (%) by Loudspeaker and Patrol Car (without Mass Media, Phone)INFORMATION SIMULATION MODEL: EFFECTIVE RISK COMMUNICATION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN A MIXED CULTURAL SOCIETY

achieve this broad distribution of information, a partnership for utilizing both government and private-owned systems will be necessary (Natural Disaster Information System Committee, 2000).
(1) Timing of Information Dissemination and Residents
Behavioural Response
After the occurrence of, for example, a large earthquake andthe imminent threat of a tsunami, the prompt and efficient communication of disaster information to residents is very important tosaving lives. The model allows the simulation of different scenarios based on the parameter of timing of information disseminationby the authorities and the time it takes residents to complete evacuation. The model can use the shortest evacuation route and calculate the duration of evacuation based on evacuation on foot at a
speed of 80 meters per minute. Therefore, the model is able tosimulate the significance of a delay in information transmission
and the likely impact on loss of life. This information can be used
to educate disaster managers on the importance of prompt information dissemination.
From the residents perspective, in order to minimize casualties, effective disaster response planning must begin with an understanding of human behaviour. Rapid reporting of what is happening during a disaster can be very effective in helping people reduce
damage and improve response. However, an appropriate response
to a warning is most likely to occur when people have been educated about the hazard and have developed a plan of action wellbefore the warning (Liu et al., 1996). It has been argued that thekey to disaster loss reduction is the timely dissemination of warning information to those at risk. However, there are numerous
instances where information was relayed in a timely manner but forvarious reasons, residents did not undertake evacuation. This situation was exemplified during Hurricane Katrina in the USA, 2004,
Ivan in Jamaica, 2004, Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, 1999,
and the Sanriku-Earthquake, Miyagi, Japan, May 2003. Miyagi isan area known for having large earthquakes and possible tsunami
threats, yet only 1.7 percent of residents evacuated due to the possibility of a tsunami occurrence. Based on this fact, if a tsunami had
occurred, a high number of casualties would have been inevitable(Katada et al., 2006). There are many reasons why residents
choose not to undertake or to delay evacuation as was illustrated
during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, 2005 (see Elder, Keithet al., 2007). As part of a larger study of community evacuation
warnings, Perry et al. (1981a) reported that, when warned to evacuate in the face of rising flood waters, substantially more MexicanAmericans than whites choose not to comply. In attempting tounderstand this response, the investigators found that, even after
statistically controlling for the effects of non-English speakers andmessage content, Mexican-Americans tended to have less confidence in the accuracy of warning messages and believed themselves to be at less personal risk than whites (Perry and Green,1982).
Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been oneof the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. The factors that often impede
appropriate response to evacuation are, but not limited to: crywolf syndrome (an evacuation order for a storm that misses), lowrisk perception, religious faith, past experience, and financial constraints, etc. It is not the aim of this model to illustrate or model
the evacuation decision-making process of residents, but rather

9

how to motivate evacuation for those that need to flee to safety,
while at the same time constraining those that should stay in place.
The underlying issue is that evacuation decision making and perhaps hazard decisions in general are complex processes that are noteasy to categorize. However, the model acknowledges the residents decision-making process by simulating multiple scenariosi.e., undertaking early evacuation immediately following an earthquake, delaying evacuation by 5, 10, or 15 minutes, etc. to confirm
information, or simply not undertaking evacuation at all. These
different scenarios were used to illustrate to residents the relationship between early evacuation and the resulting number of casualties. Additionally, scenarios were simulated to show the relationship between a delay in official warning transmission andresidents evacuation behaviour in terms of the resulting numberof casualties. Based on these scenarios, it was revealed that a correlation exists between information-receive time and number ofcasualties and evacuation (early or delayed) and non-evacuationand number of casualties.
(2) Encouraging Positive Mitigation Behaviour
Having used the model to inform disaster managers of themost effective way of communicating warning information in adiverse society such as the TCI, and to inform the siting of shelters,
positioning of fixed loudspeakers, and routes for dispatching patrol
car speakers, the next component of the model from the residents
perspective is to use the model as an educational tool for encouraging positive behavioural responses to warning or other hazardrelated information.
A key strength of the information simulation model is its ability to generate two-dimensional scenario outputs of various residents behavioural responses. Various social, psychological, andcultural factors, etc. often influence a households decision toundertake evacuation or not. The model recognizing these barriers
to effective disaster mitigation is able to educate residents throughthe simulation of life-like scenarios about the importance ofundertaking early evacuation. The realistic nature of the models
output will allow the concept of the need to heed emergency warnings to be clearly understood. In this regard, the model would be agood tool for educating residents, regardless of cultural background, about the importance of responding promptly to evacuation
warnings and when appropriate, undertaking evacuation based on
their own cognition of the threat, since communications from government officials can be delayed due to damage.
Studies show (Ketterer and Spada, 1993) that only if the samewarning is repeated through different information channels bycredible authorities, are people likely to heed it. The more detailed
and specific the warning, the more credible it is and the more
accepted it will be. In this regard, the model recognizes that different groups in society will find different sources credible and assuch, made provision for the use of multiple mediums in the dissemination of warning information. Additionally, it has beenargued that risk perception tends to increase with the frequency ofwarning information and also when that information originatesfrom what is deemed a credible source. Therefore, the use of multiple mediums increases the reiteration of warnings being heard
more than once and the information being relayed by what might
be considered a reliable source by different groups; this results inthe likelihood of increasing residents risk perception of the needto evacuate quickly. Moreover, the inclusion of the parameter of

10

V. CLERVEAUX, T. KATADA AND K. HOSOI

oral communication between residents addresses the issue of some
cultural groups finding social networks to be more reliable andtrustworthy than mainstream media, which can have an advantage
in not only encouraging residents to evacuate but can also provide
a safety net during and after a hazard occurrence.
A barrier can also be an opportunity depending on the lensthrough which it is being examined. For example, it is widely stated that gender issues can present a formidable barrier to risk mitigation. But it may also be argued that gender may positively influence the warning response. Since women by nature or throughtheir socialization process are considered to be caretakers, themodel can be used to educate females or female-headed householdsof the need to evacuate early to reduce casualties in their family;
since a 10-minute delay in evacuation can cause serious injury andeven death, such a scenario would no doubt appeal to women. As
such, women represent a potential key target for public outreachand education. Conversely, if men tend toward riskier behaviours,
the model can simulate various scenarios to depict what is likely tooccur if evacuation is taken late, especially when elderly and young
children are involved in evacuating on foot, when roads are inundated and some are impassable, and when attempting to evacuate
late at night. The model as such might appeal to men who generally see themselves as the protectors of the family.
The model addresses the complexities that often result due tolanguage differences or incorrect translation of warning information from one language to another by the use of a siren-type pitch
to issue warnings. The use of this method means that, regardless ofthe primary language, persons would still be able to understand thewarning. Secondly, the model does not rely on the media to translate the warning into various languages; instead, the model makes
recommendations for the warning information to be directly issued
in the three official languages spoken in the country by the disaster
office.
4. CONCLUSION
Vulnerability to natural hazards may be reduced through hazard education and effective warnings, which is the basic premise on
which the information model was constructed. In this regard, thetsunami model can be considered a type of dynamic digital hazard
map as it informs, educates, and identifies vulnerable populations.
As the results of various scenarios can be depicted in two-dimensional or graphical formats, the presentation of the results is more
realistic and thus more likely to appeal to residents, irrespective of
cultural and language differences, about the need to ensure thatthey have taken sufficient measures to protect themselves, theirfamily, and property from various disasters. Given the wide range
of devices/mediums used to communicate risk information, thistool will be effective in communicating risk information to a mixed
cultural group and in encouraging prompt evacuation from vulnerable areas in the face of an imminent threat. For disaster managers,
the tsunami model is a type of digital disaster manual for assessing
the effectiveness of current disaster management strategies that are
in place.
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