Report on CLIPS-related activities in Japan for 2005
Shingo Yamada1
CLIPS Focal Point of Japan

1. Highlights of 2005
1) In March 2005, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) published the "Global WarmingProjection" volume 6.
the end of the 21st

It contains detailed projections of the climate change around Japan incentury, calculated with the JMA-MRI’s Regional Climate Model, whose

horizontal resolution is about 20km (RCM20).
2) In June 2005, the JMA's El Niño forecast system was improved, intending to predict the SST
deviation in Region B. While the dynamical model remains the same, the initial condition of theocean was changed using the latest analysis with a maximum lag of 5 days, and the number ofensemble members was increased from 6 to 12. In addition, the statistical relationship used in
the post-process was updated and it enabled reducing the systematically positive errors.
3) In June 2005, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) started providing experimental products of thetercile

probabilistic

forecastof

three-monthmean

accumulated precipitation on 2.5 degree grids.

2m-temperatureandthree-month

They are intended to assist NMHSs toobjectively interpret NWP outputs and produce probabilistic seasonal outlooks of their own.
4) In October 2005, JMA published the "Recent Global Climate Variability and Change - itscurrent status and perspectives -" volume 7 (available only in Japanese).

It contains detailed

analysis of the observed climate variability and change around the world including the oceans
and the GHGs, and its perspectives based on the IPCC TAR and the JMA-MRI’s climate model
projection (cf. item 1).
5) The JMA-CRIEPI2’s joint project on the long-term global atmospheric reanalysis is in the finalstage and to be completed by March 2006.

The so-called “Japanese 25-year reanalysis(JRA-25)” products covering 26 years from 1979 to 2004 have already been provided forevaluation through the project’s website (http://www.jreap.org/indexe.html).

It has alreadyshown through preliminary evaluation that the JRA-25 products have advantages over theexisting reanalyses from the viewpoint of the reproducibility of tropical rainfall amount and therepresentation of tropical cyclones.
6) In July 2005, TCC’s web pages to the public (http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/) were renewed. The
TCC website has been updated periodically and the following new items are now available;“Global Warming Projection. Vol.6”, “Climate Change Monitoring Report for 2004”, “TCC News”
and some other current topics, such as “the summary of Bai-u season in Japan” and “the Reporton the status of the Antarctic ozone hole in 2005”.
1

Contact information: Mr. Shingo Yamada, Head, Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4
Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan, Phone & Fax: +81 3 3211 8406, E-mail:tcc@climar.kishou.go.jp
2Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry2. Climate monitoring and prediction services in JapanThe Climate Prediction Division (CPD) of JMA is responsible for official services related
to climate monitoring and prediction in Japan.

CPD prepares several kinds of climate related

products and disseminates them to the public.

Those products include monitoring reports on theglobal climate and extreme climate events, monitoring reports on the global climate system, El
Niño diagnosis and outlook, long-range forecasts, and the global warming projection.
2.1 Monitoring of the global climate and extreme climate events
CPD monitors the current status of the global climate using CLIMAT and SYNOP reports
from NMHSs through the WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS). After quality-checked,
surface temperature and precipitation data are assembled to analyze and assess extreme climate
events around the world.

In addition, press reports are routinely monitored to maintain thedatabase on weather-related disasters in the world such as floods, droughts, forest fires andsevere storms.

The global maps of mean temperatures, accumulated precipitation amounts,and their anomalies are prepared weekly, monthly and seasonally and the reports on extreme
climate events around the world are issued with brief description on disastrous events.
2.2 Monitoring of the global climate system
CPD monitors the current state of the global climate system focussing on atmosphericcirculation, convection, ocean and snow/ice coverage based on the analyses of the objective data
assimilation system and satellite observations.

These monitoring results are compiled as the“Monthly Report on Climate System” and issued every month since 1986. The Reports provide
long-range forecasters and climate researchers with useful information about the cause of theextreme climatic events and analyzed long-term climate trends.
2.3 El Niño diagnosis and outlook
CPD issues the report on the current status and outlook of El Niño on a monthly basis. It
contains the diagnosis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions of the equatorial Pacific andsix-month outlook for El Niño and La Niña events.

A global ocean data assimilation system isoperated to monitor the global sea temperatures while a coupled ocean-atmosphere global
circulation model is operated to predict the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
2.4 Long-range forecast
CPD issues four kinds of long-range forecasts: one-month forecast, three-month outlook,warm season outlook and cold season outlook, as summarized in Table 1.

Forecasts ofindividual elements are presented with probabilities in three categories: below normal, nearnormal and above normal.

Climatological likelihood of falling within each category is 33.3 %according to the statistics for the period of 1971-2000.
An ensemble prediction system was introduced to one-month forecast in 1996 andthree-month outlook and warm/cold season outlook in 2003.

Table 1

Outline of long-range forecasts issued by JMA
Warm (Mar – Aug)/
One-month forecast
Three-month outlook
Cold (Oct – Feb) seasonoutlook
thDate of25 February
Every Friday
25th of every monthIssue/ 25th September
Lead time 1 day
About 1 week
About 2 or 3 months
Probabilistic forecasts in Probabilistic forecasts in Probabilistic
forecasts
inthree categories:
three categories:
three categories:
Monthly mean temp.
3-month mean temp.
3-month mean temperature
Monthly precipitation
3-month precipitation(Jun.-Aug./Dec.-Feb.)
Main
Monthly sunshine
3-month snowfall+
3-month precipitation
Contents dura-tion(Jun.-Aug./Dec.-Feb.)
Monthly mean temp.
3-month snowfall+Monthly precipitation
Monthly snowfall+
Weekly mean temp.
(Dec.-Feb.)(1st, 2nd, 3rd - 4th week )Precipitation during Bai-u(Jun.-Jul. or May-Jun.)
MethodDynamical
Dynamical/ Statistical
Dynamical/ Statistical+ Snowfall forecasts are issued only for the areas along the Japan Sea.
2.5 Dissemination of climate information
Climate information produced by CPD is delivered to the general public through theofficial web site of JMA, mass media, printed matters and CD-ROMs. It is also provided directly
to the specific users such as government authorities concerned.
To promote effective usage of climate products by users, the JMA headquarters and its
local offices hold press conferences to give explanation of the information when issuing thethree-month outlook, the warm/cold season outlook and the El Niño outlook. They also holdregular meetings on climate information for central and local government users. The meetings
aim at providing the users with the latest information on the climate-related services of JMA andfinding out their needs and requirements on the climate information. The meetings play a majorrole in keeping close relations between JMA and the users.
3. Activities of Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)
TCC is a section in the CPD/JMA established in April 2002, which is responsible forproviding National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the Asia-Pacific region
with basic climate data and products, and assists NMHSs with enhancing climate-related
activities through training and technical assistance.

The following products are available throughthe TCC website (http://cpd2.kishou.go.jp/tcc/) except grid point value (GPV) data of theensemble prediction, users of which are restricted to NMHSs of the WMO Members.
i) Global surface climate monitoringii) Global climate system monitoringiii) El Niño monitoring and outlookiv) One-month, three-month and six-month ensemble predictionv) Global warming projectionvi) Long-range forecast over Japanvii) Training modules and presentationsviii) Press release and “TCC News”
There are several products that have been newly added to the TCC website since thebeginning of 2005.

They include the objectively analyzed GPV data of atmospheric circulation inMarch 2005, the experimental products of the tercile probabilities of three-month mean
2m-temperature and three-month accumulated precipitation in June 2005, the “global warming
projection volume 6” in July 2005, and a quarterly news letter called “TCC News” in July 2005.
Several presentations, which were given at some international meetings andconferences, were also added to the TCC website to provide the users with our on-goingdevelopment activities. TCC is planning to improve data and products available from the TCC
website in the future.
4. Liaison with users for improving climate information
Japan experienced extremely cool summer in 2003 and had a poor crop due toextremely low temperature and shortage of sunshine especially in the northern Japan.

Theeconomic damage of crop production in the summer 2003 reached to nearly four billion USdollars.

To the contrary, the summer of 2004 was record-breaking hot in Japan, and lots oftyphoons came to Japan and caused enormous damage.

Those experiences urged us todevelop the climatic early warning system for the extreme climate events such as cool/hotsummer, so as to prevent or mitigate socio-economic damage.
In order to investigate the users’ needs and requirements, CPD started dialogues withelectric power industry and agriculture sector.

It has been clarified that they need morearea-specific temperature forecasts up to 2 weeks ahead, and that we should issue forecast in aproper timing for their usage.

CPD has set out to develop tailored products such as the early

warning of extreme climate events under the close liaison with specific users.

CPD isinvestigating an objective method producing probabilities of exceeding arbitrary threshold atspecific points. Some preliminary products are planned to be produced by the end of FY2006.
5. Training activities
JMA has been conducting a training course in meteorology for developing countries
every year since 1973 as one of the training courses provided by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA), a Japanese official organization implementing international
development assistance. In 2005, the course was held from 14 September to 16 December at
the JMA headquarters and related institutions, attended by eight participants from Algeria,Bangladesh, Eritrea, Fiji, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, and Senegal.

The course is foucused on

operational use of numerical weather prediction, satellite meteorology and climate information.
Two weeks were allocated for climate information, and CPD delivered lectures on climate systemmonitoring, long-rang forecast, El Niño outlook and global warming projection and provided apractical training on utilization of the GPV data derived from the JMA’s ensemble prediction
system.

Some climate scientists and experts were invited as lecturers from the International

Research Institute for Climate and Society in USA, the University of Tokyo and the Japan Agency

for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
6. Activities on regional level
Responses to the “Questionnaire on requirements for the establishment of Regional
Climate Centres (RCCs) in RA II” were analyzed in 2004.

Considering this analysis, thethirteenth Session of RA II held at Hong Kong/China in December 2004 recommended immediate
implementation of RCC activities through establishing the RA-II RCC network of multiple
multifunctional centres complemented by specialized centres loosely coordinated by an oversightcommittee. Each of multifunctional centre for RCC is requested to conduct most of “Operationalfunction”, “Co-ordination function”, “Data services function”, “Training and capacity buildingfunction” and “Research and development function”.

Each of specialized centre is requested toconduct at least one of the five functions mentioned above.
basis will be launched in early 2006.

The RA-II RCC network on a pilot

TCC/CPD plans to apply for one of the multifunctional

centres to contribute to the regional activities on climate information and prediction services.