DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page AThe second workshop of the Japan-UK Joint Research Projectcommunisis
The leading print partner

C
Y

M
K

JOB LOCATION:

PRINERGY 1

DISCLAIMER
APPROVER

Achieving a Sustainable
Low-Carbon Society
Symposium and Workshop

13-15 June 2007
London, UK

The accuracy and thecontent of this file is the
responsibility of theApprover. Pleaseauthorise approval only if
you wish to proceed toprint. Communisis PMS
cannot accept liability forerrors once the file has
been printed.

PRINTERThis colour bar is
produced manually all
end users must check
final separations to verify
colours before printing.

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page B

The

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Nobel House
17 Smith Square
London SW1P 3JR
Website: www.defra.gov.uk© Crown Copyright 2007
Copyright in the typographical arrangement and design rests with the Crown.
This publication (excluding the logo) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that
it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context.
The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright with the title and source of the publication specified.
Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
Printed in the UK, November 2007, on material that contains a minimum of 100% recycled fibre for uncoatedpaper and 75% recycled fibre for coated paper.

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page CThe second workshop of the Japan-UK Joint Research Project

Achieving a Sustainable
Low-Carbon Society
Symposium and Workshop

13-15 June 2007
London, UK

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page D

Ta

Co-Ch

Open

1

2

3

4

5

Exper

1

2

3

4

5

Appe
i.
ii
ii

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 1

communisis
The leading print partnerC
Y

Table of Contents

M
K

JOB LOCATION:

PRINERGY 1

DISCLAIMER
APPROVER
The accuracy and thecontent of this file is the
responsibility of theApprover. Pleaseauthorise approval only if
you wish to proceed toprint. Communisis PMS
cannot accept liability forerrors once the file has
been printed.

Co-Chairs’ Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

PRINTERThis colour bar is
produced manually all
end users must check
final separations to verify
colours before printing.

Open Symposium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.

Welcome and Introductions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

2.

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

3.

The Low-Carbon Society: Making it Happen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

4.

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

5.

Interactive Session. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Expert Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2.

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

3.

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

4.

Outcome of Breakout Sessions – Prioritising Policy Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

5.

The Future of the Japan-UK Collaboration on Low-Carbon Societies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
i.

Press Release on 13th June 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

ii.

List of Invited Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

iii.

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

1

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 2

Co

Intro

Durin
researthe joneedbase d
were
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

The fi
being
meas
A def
under
pathw
•
•

•
•

2

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 3Co-chairs’ Summary

Introduction to Low-Carbon Societies

Dr. Shuzo Nishioka
Executive Director
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES)

Dr. Jim Skea
Research Director
UK Energy ResearchCentre (UKERC)

Japan

UK

During the first anniversary of the Kyoto Protocol in 2006, the UK and Japan launched the joint
research project “Low-Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050”. The focus for the development of
the joint research project between the UK and Japan was on deepening our understanding of theneed to reduce greenhouse gases to achieve low-carbon societies and using the scientific evidencebase delivered through the submission of country level emission scenarios. Further specific objectives
were set for the UK-Japan collaboration to explore:• Identifying and understanding the necessity for deep cuts in global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions toward 2050;• Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario studies in developed and developing countries;• Formulating win-win strategies to align sustainable development and climate objectives;• Studying methodologies to achieve low-carbon societies – visions; pathways modelling thefuture society; technological, institutional, behavioural and financial mechanisms;• Identifying gaps between goals and the current reality;• Sharing best practices and information; and• Identifying opportunities for cooperation.
The first workshop produced an analysis of the various models and modelling techniques that are
being used internationally. This has provided a strong base to build on in assessing the policies andmeasures that can act as drivers in making a transition to a low-carbon society.
A definition for a low-carbon society was proposed during this workshop, alongside a common
understanding of the necessity for low-carbon societies and early action to choose low-carbon
pathways. It was demonstrated that a low-carbon society should:• Take actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring thatthe development needs of all groups within society are met;
• Make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmosphericconcentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid
dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions;• Demonstrate a high level of energy efficiency and use low-carbon energy sources andproduction technologies; and• Adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels ofgreenhouse gas emissions.

3

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 4Co-chairs’ Summary

One concrete outcome of the first workshop was a collaborative international modelling project.
This innovative process, with strong developing country participation, emphasised long-term deep
reductions in CO2 and other GHGs. Comparative model runs based on common scenarios have been
performed by twelve national teams:

3. To

In addaddre
differeorientFor example, a key conclusion from the Japanese 2050 Low-Carbon Society Research was that Japan
has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emission by 70% compared to the 1990 level,
while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050. This included reductions in both
final energy demands and primary energy supply, and incorporated the residential sector, land-use
planning and transportation. Further steps were needed to achieve this:How• In order to achieve the low-carbon society goals while satisfying the required amount of energy
services at the same time, prompt actions should be taken at the earliest stage of the roadmap.

•• Such actions involve structural changes in the industrial sector and investment in infrastructure.
Moreover, it is necessary to accelerate development, investment, and use of energy-saving
technologies and low-carbon energy technologies.

•• The government should play a leading role in promoting a common vision towards low-carbon
societies at the earliest stage, enforcing comprehensive measures for social and technologicalinnovation, implementing strong measures for translating such reduction potentials into a
reality, promoting measures for public investment based on long-term perspectives and leading
incentives for private investment.
In designing the second workshop a greater focus was placed on the implementation of policies andmeasures to achieve low-carbon societies. In order to explore the feasibility of different approaches
in achieving low-carbon societies, our objectives for the second workshop were:
1. To demonstrate and raise awareness of the benefits of transitioning to a low-carbon society
through sustainable development:
a. Demonstrating that a low-carbon society can be consistent with policies relating to theenvironment, economy, development, access to energy and energy security;b. Involving a wider range of stakeholders (including business leaders, policymakers, academics
and NGOs) to assist with raising awareness of the low-carbon society concept anddisseminating low-carbon society information, and to provide expert input on the practicalitiesof transitioning to a low-carbon society; andc. Sharing expertise and further building analytical capacity relating to low-carbon society visions
and modelling.
2. To develop recommendations on how to close the gap between the business-as-usual andlow-carbon society scenarios:
a. Identifying feasible contributions that large sectors could make in achieving a low-carbon society;b. Exploring what low-carbon cities may look like and showcasing existing examples; andc. Drafting policy options to achieve a low-carbon society with reference to timeframes and theneed for swift action.

4

Co

•

•
•

roject.
deep
been

Japan
level,bothd-use

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 5Co-chairs’ Summary

3. To develop the framework for a map of low-carbon society activities.
In addition to this it was decided during the design phase of the second workshop that it should
address a wider range of Low-Carbon Society scenarios which would focus on the similarities anddifferences between them. It was also decided that the second workshop should be more outcome
orientated and should address a broader stakeholder engagement, including leaders from business.

How do we Expect the Results to be Used in the Future?
• informing high-level discussions in international processes such as Gleneagles Dialogue andUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

nergy
dmap.

• informing national policy formation and policy learning

cture.
saving• promoting the inclusion of climate risk assessment in government and corporate strategy

arbon
ogicalnto a
ading• basis for engaging range of stakeholders• building capacity in developed and developing countries and reinforcing international collaboration
between energy/climate researchers.

es andaches

ociety

o the

emics
t and
alitiesvisionsl andociety;nd the5

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 6The

6

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 7

Open Symposium

13 June 2007
The Mermaid Conference and Events Centre, London

7

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 8

1. Welcome and Introductions

Welcome Address

Ian Pearson
Minister of State,
Climate Change and the Environment
Department for Environment Food and Rural AffairsUK
A year ago, nearly to the day, I was due to be in Tokyo to open the first Japan-UK symposium on
low-carbon societies with the then Japanese Environment Minister Madam Koike. I was a foreign
minister at the time – but after the major reshuffle in May that year I became the UK Climate Change
Minister and could not make that event. However, I am now pleased to be here with Ambassador
Yoshiji Nogami, admittedly a year later than originally planned, and on the other side of the globe,
to welcome you to the second symposium: “Achieving a sustainable low-carbon society”.
The workshop last year argued for the need for global emissions of greenhouse gases to be markedly
reduced by the middle of the century to combat climate change. It presented a vision of how
developed countries could practically reduce their emissions by at least half by 2050 and how
developing countries could play their part through developing sustainably. It defined a low-carbon
society as one that:• takes actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that thedevelopment needs of all groups within society are met;
• makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentrationsof carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change
through deep cuts in global emissions;• demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses low-carbon energy sources and production
technologies; and• adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels of greenhousegas emissions.
The results from that workshop have been used to inform discussion on a high level in forums suchas the G8 Dialogue Ministerial meeting in Mexico last October and the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in Nairobi in November last year.
Last week’s G8 meeting recognised the need for emissions to stop rising and for substantial reductions
to be made thereafter. The G8 also agreed to consider seriously the decisions made by the European
Union, Canada and Japan which include at least a halving of global emissions by 2050.
They committed to achieving these goals and invited the major emerging economies to join them inthat endeavour.

8W

So thito reasocietnationrepresenviroare thIndeedissue –

It is imThiscomm

The lahuma
green
Reviewecono

Our st
UK, w

In Ma
a gov
26-32
individ
neede
ahead

And laon trarelativ

The n
and thprogreThis wwhich
thesesociet
de-ca

The J
examp
of climm onoreignhange
ssadorglobe,

rkedly
how
how
arbon

at theationshange

uctionhouses suchework

ctions
opean
2050.
em in

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 9Welcome and Introductions

So this meeting is clearly very relevant. Building on last year’s workshop it will look at practical steps
to realising low-carbon societies. For this second workshop, on achieving a sustainable low-carbon
society, a range of experts have been brought together, including researchers from various disciplines,
national and city-level officials and members of international organisations and industry
representatives who see addressing climate change as a business opportunity as well as anenvironmental necessity. I am encouraged to see this level of participation. Today, at the symposium,
are the people who have the ability to make things happen – that is, the business community.
Indeed, what today’s participation shows is that climate change is not only a purely environmental
issue – it also provides an opportunity for growth through sustainable development.
It is imperative that we make the most of all the wealth of expertise and experience available here.
This workshop has the chance to be pioneering, to push back traditional boundaries ofcommunication fixed around nations, industrial sectors and international businesses.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment provides a stronger link between
human activities and climate change. It clearly demonstrates the need for urgent action to cut
greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. It, and the Stern
Review, show us that it is possible to make deep cuts in emissions at modest cost and that theeconomic costs of inaction are significantly greater, posing a significant threat to future development.
Our strength and credibility internationally relies on our commitment and leadership at home – In theUK, we are one of the few countries on course to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target.
In March, we launched our draft Climate Change Bill, the first of its kind anywhere in the world froma government. It proposes legally binding targets to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 and
26-32% by 2020. By providing a credible and long-term legal framework, we will enable business andindividuals to plan and invest with greater confidence and clarity in order to really deliver the changes
needed to move to a low-carbon economy. The introduction of five-year carbon budgets, set 15 years
ahead, also provides the balance between certainty and flexibility to manage this transition.
And last month saw the launch of the Government’s Energy White Paper. The measures in this put us
on track to meet our carbon emission goals – cutting UK emissions by more than a quarter by 2020
relative to 1990 levels, even though the economy will have doubled in size in the same period.
The next two years will be critical in tackling climate change. Japan will host the next G8 presidency
and the work done through these workshops will play their part in that. The first formal report on
progress under the Gleneagles Plan of Action will also be presented to the G8 summit in 2008.
This will include a report on how G8 countries have met their commitments to increase the speed withwhich greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. We must, therefore, take the opportunity presented bythese series of workshops to send strong messages on: the necessity and feasibility of low-carbon
societies, the role of sustainable development and existing measures and the need for early action inde-carbonising our societies.
The Japan-UK collaboration on low-carbon societies has been very productive and is a brilliant
example of how, by working together, we can produce a real insight into addressing the challenges
of climate change mitigation, adaptation and development.

9

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 10

Welcome and Introductions

Over the course of today, the workshop co-chairs, Professors Jim Skea and Shuzo Nishioka,
will facilitate mixed discussion. A fascinating programme is arranged for you, outlining the latest
science, economics, finance, and importantly sustainable development aspects of transitioning to a
low-carbon society. It looks at what can be done at city level, what can be achieved by businesses,
and what policies could help us transition to a low-carbon society.
In summary, it is my great pleasure to open this symposium and workshop on Achieving a
low-carbon society. To the experts here, I ask you to be honest over the next three days. At thisworkshop I want you to share your ideas, to share your concerns and to propose solutions on how
we transition to a low-carbon way of living. Climate change is undoubtedly the most important
problem our generation must tackle and the world of climate change is very busy at the moment.
I want you to think of what can we do differently – how can this collaboration between Japan andthe UK add most value. I do not see this as a workshop for reiterating standard positions, but rather
I see it as an opportunity to think imaginatively about the long-term future of society. I am sure thatthe expertise in this room will provide some very interesting results.
Finally let me say how much we have enjoyed working with our Japanese colleagues on thisprogramme and we look forward to continuing our productive collaboration. Let this workshop set
an example for the future; let us leave a footprint of ideas, thoughts, policies and action rather thanof carbon.

W

Open

Good

It is a“Achi
policyvery wFood
Clima
EnviroTacklinJanuaof glokey isinternagree
gases
to trig
harmf
presidto unsocietIn Heiconsidon alcompestablAs a mto Co
propo
currenthe mnation10

hioka,latestg to aesses,

ing a
At thisn howortantment.
n andrathere thatn thisop setr than

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 11

Welcome and Introductions

Opening Address

H.E. Yoshiji Nogami
Japanese Ambassador to the UK
Good morning, Minister Ian Pearson, Dr. Jim Skea, Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, and Ladies and Gentlemen.
It is a great honour for me to say a few words today on the opening of this symposium for“Achieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society”. This occasion brings together a select group ofpolicymakers, business leaders and researchers of the highest calibre, so the deliberations should bevery worthwhile indeed. May I express my appreciation to the UK’s Department of Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and the Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change Research, as well as Japanese Environmental Ministry and National institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES) for their hard work in organising this event.
Tackling climate change is one of the key topics on the agenda between Japan and the UK. This
January, Prime Minister Abe visited the UK and discussed with Prime Minister Blair a number of issuesof global significance. In the Japan-UK joint statement issued on that occasion, we identified four
key issues on which we will work together, namely international security, climate change,international development, and science, technology and innovation. In tackling climate change, we
agreed to work together on an international framework to stabilise the concentration of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, and recognised that such a framework should be equitably designed so as
to trigger a faster shift towards a low-carbon society in all the countries that are major producers ofharmful emissions. We also agreed to cooperate to ensure that, during the course of Japan’spresidency of the G8 in 2008, we achieved a step change in this regard. Furthermore, we determined
to undertake joint research on science and technology geared to the development of a low-carbon
society.
In Heiligendamm last week, we were able to obtain very significant outcome in terms of agreeing toconsider various issues including 50% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050 and resolving to callon all parties to participate in the UNFCCC conference in Bali with a view to achieving acomprehensive post-2012 agreement. In order to maintain the momentum, the next challenge is toestablish a concrete framework for formulating that agreement.
As a matter of fact, just before the Heiligendamm summit, Prime Minister Abe issued an “Invitation
to Cool Earth 50”, which is a Japanese initiative for tackling climate change. Prime Minister Abe
proposed working towards three goals: Firstly, achieving a 50% reduction in emissions from thecurrent level by 2050; Secondly, forging a flexible and diverse international framework in which all
the major emitters including USA, China and India feel able to participate; and Thirdly, mounting
national campaigns with such themes as “1 person, 1 day, 1 kg”.

11

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 12

Welcome and Introductions

Through these proposals, Prime Minister Abe is stressing that the existing ideas alone cannot achieve
substantial reduction of emissions. And Prime Minister Abe specifically mentioned that we need tochange our way of life so that we can achieve growth in a manner that accords with the protectionof the global environment. Quite simply, this means we need to achieve a low-carbon society,which requires a drastic change in the way we operate. All of us here today have unique areas ofexpertise which we can call upon to help make this vision a reality.
In 2008, the HOKKAIDO TOYAKO (G8) summit will take place in Japan. At the HOKKAIDO TOYAKO
summit, there will be the informative report from the Gleneagles Dialogue, and climate change willdefinitely be a significant item on the agenda. We need to move forward to an international
agreement, building on the achievements of the Heiligendamm summit and the Bali UNFCCC
conference. I understand that the outcome of this workshop will be reported to the Gleneagles
dialogue in Berlin and to the conference in Bali. Moreover, I hope the HOKKAIDO TOYAKO summit
next year will benefit from the deliberations at this workshop.
Let me conclude my speech by wishing the discussions will be fruitful and will provide you with theopportunity to widen and deepen your friendships as well. Thank you very much.

2.

The
Inter

Key

The k
low lewithindeclin2°C a
25 ye
serioutheref

The r
techn
decad
acquisWha

BetwelargesdeveloIPCC

How

In all senerg(hydroof CO

Otherthe trand htogeththe pr12

chieveeed toectionociety,eas of

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

Page 13

2. The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

The Latest Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation from theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

YAKO
ge willtionalFCCC
eaglesummit

th the

14:22

Dr. Bert Metz
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
and Co-chair IPCC Working Group III, Mitigation of Climate Change

Key message
The key message from the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC is that to achieve stabilisation at
low levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, global CO2 emissions have to peakwithin the next 10-20 years and then decline steeply. If we manage to have these emissions start
declining in the next 10 years, then a maximum global mean temperature increase of about
2°C above pre-industrial is still feasible. If turning around global CO2 emissions will take25 years it is likely we will face a 3°C warming in the long term, which will result in much more
serious impacts of climate change. Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will,
therefore, have a large impact on opportunities to achieve the lower stabilisation levels.
The range of stabilisation levels, even the lowest ones, can be achieved by the deployment oftechnology currently available as well as technology expected to be commercialised in coming
decades. This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development,
acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers.

What are current trends?
Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70%, CO2 being thelargest contributor. With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable
development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.
IPCC SRES scenarios predict a 25-90% increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 2000.

How can emissions be reduced?
In all sectors there are many technologies available today to reduce GHG emissions. Examples for theenergy supply sector include: energy efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable energy(hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applicationsof CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS).
Other technologies still under development will be commercialised in the near future. Examples forthe transport sector include: second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electricand hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries. Putting all technological options
together, IPCC concludes that by 2030 the global economic mitigation potential is sufficient to offset
the projected emissions growth or bring emissions below current levels.

13

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 14

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

A wide variety of climate change mitigation policies is available for governments to realise themitigation of climate change. Applicability of national policies depends on national circumstances,
their design, interaction, stringency and implementation.
An effective carbon-price signal is critical to realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors.
Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers andconsumers to invest in low-GHG emitting products, technologies and processes. Such policies could
include economic instruments, government funding and regulation. For stabilisation at around
550 ppm CO2 eq (parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent) carbon prices should reach 20-80
US$/tCO2 eq (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change”
happens). At these carbon prices, large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be
expected. For comparison: carbon prices in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) over
2005-2006 have fluctuated between $10-40/ tCO2 .
Technology policies are also of great importance. The lower the stabilisation levels the greater theneed for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few
decades. Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation anddeployment through financial contributions, tax credits, standard setting and market creation.
However, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly
two decades: they are now about half of their 1980 level.
Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies. Climate policy
alone is unlikely to solve the climate problem. The development path of countries has a major
influence on GHG emission levels. There are many non-climate policies, such as tax, fiscal,
energy security, health and other policies that can deliver significant emission reduction if climatechange concerns are integrated.

Th

Low

Fast esecurirelateThe U
promoof ecoecologGreenthe coachiev

The Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report can be downloaded fromwww.mnp.nl/ipcc

In facachievare thpromo

Further information:

1. Eco

IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency: ipcc3tsu@mnp.nl

2. Pro3. Imp4. Pro5. Deveco

In scabut hcommprofita
low-c

One o
If we
10 or

14

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 15

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

e theances,

ctors.
s and
could
round
20-80
ange”
an be
over

er thet few
n andation.
nearlypolicymajor
fiscal,
imate
from

sment

Low-Carbon Societies and Sustainable Development

Rae Kwon Chung
Director, United Nations Economic andSocial Commission for Asia and PacificFast economic growth of Asia and the Pacific depends heavily on imported energy. Thus energy
security is one of the most critical issues facing the region. Achieving a low-carbon society is directly
related with energy security of the region.
The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) have beenpromoting the “Green Growth” paradigm, focusing on the need to improve the ecological efficiencyof economic growth. UNESCAP is promoting the need for countries in the region to shift towards an
ecologically efficient pattern of growth.
Green Growth has been promoted to replace the “Grow first, clean up later” approach by focusing
the concept of ecological efficiency of economic growth. The Green Growth approach aims toachieve sustainable development by improving the eco-efficiency of growth.
In fact, the Green Growth approach based on the concept of eco-efficiency is also a strategy forachieving low-carbon societies in the Asia and Pacific region as energy efficiency and climate action
are the key factors of ecological efficiency. UNESCAP is focusing on the following five areas inpromoting Green Growth:
1. Ecological tax reform to close the gap between market costs and ecological costs;
2. Promoting the sustainability of infrastructure to improve the physical foundation of society;3. Improving the sustainability of consumption by changing lifestyle patterns;
4. Promotion of green business by presenting eco-efficiency as business opportunity; and5. Developing an Ecological Efficiency Indicator (EEI) to measure the eco-efficiency pattern of
economic growth.
In scaling up the investment for low-carbon societies, what is critical is not the amount of money,
but how to frame a financial mechanism which can present investment for low-carbon societies ascommercially viable and profitable. Once investment for low-carbon societies could prove to be
profitable, then money will flow in. Thus, we should focus on how to make the investment for
low-carbon societies profitable.
One of the financial mechanisms we can improve is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
If we could multiply the Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) from solar and wind power CDM
10 or 100 times, then the investment for solar and wind power could become profitable.

15

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 16

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

We could even use CDM as a mechanism to generate net emission reductions from Non-Annex 1 if
we could discount the CERs from CDM. If only one million tonnes of CO2CERs were sold out of
2 million tonnes of CO2CERs, then unsold one million t CO2 will become a net global reduction of
CO2 emission.

Th

How

CER discounting could be an alternative option for Non-Annex I action after 2012. We could expect
emission reduction from Non-Annex I even without imposing any target on them. Thus it could
provide a breakthrough to resolve the deadlock which is blocking the progress on climate change
regime after 2012.

Rest

The A
emiss
additithese
supplyWhilstexpan
the finenerg
discou
organ
dema

The n
efficieenerg
markeshould

Curre

The C

The p
emiss
develo
appro
US$20
count
of invRemo
along
increa16

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 17

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

ex 1 ifout ofon of

How Finance Can Enable a Low-Carbon Society

expectcould
hange

Jean Acquatella
Economic Affairs Officer of the Sustainable Development
and Human Settlements Division
Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

Restructuring Finance for Low-Carbon Societies
The Alternative Scenario modelled by the IEA for the World Energy Outlook 2006 shows thatemissions reductions of 16% or 6.3 giga tonnes CO2eq by 2030 can be achieved without incurring
additional investment relative to the IEA reference or business-as-usual scenario. However, delivering
these potential emission reductions requires shifting part of the total energy sector investment fromsupply expansion to demand side (energy efficiency).
Whilst energy supply side investment is routinely undertaken through commercial project finance,
expanding capacity for demand side investment will require innovation and structural change within
the finance sector. Most energy finance facilities are ill prepared to handle barriers associated withenergy efficiency programmes such as financial constraints on individual consumers, high implicit
discount rates, partial information on energy performance of end-use appliances, the need toorganise a large number of individual actions, and partial information on the potential savings to
demand side investment.
The new energy finance facilities need to work in conjunction well designed and enforceable
efficiency standards, regulation and energy pricing policies, alongside specific facilities geared toenergy efficiency needs. Without these clear and long term regulatory signals, it is unlikely thatmarkets will mobilise the required level of demand side investment. Energy efficiency financing
should be regarded a priority in any restructuring of energy sector investment.

Current Mechanisms that Leverage Financing a Low-Carbon Society
The Challenge for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
The project pipeline for CDM to 2012 is expected to generate 2.0 billion tCO2e of certified
emissions reductions. This will represent US$20 billion of additional funding for mitigation indeveloping countries to 2012 – based on a certified emission reduction cost of US$10 per tonne,
approximately US$4billion per year. If we compare this amount, however, with the expected
US$20-30 billion annual estimated incremental cost of low-carbon investment in developing
countries, we can see that CDM, at this point, is only contributing a minor share of the total amountof investment required to reduce future emissions in developing countries.
Removal of barriers, such as high transaction costs, technology risk and policy uncertainty,
alongside an expansion in CDM, can deliver the necessary structural changes that can enable anincrease in the scale of investment through CDM.

17

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 18

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

Global Environment Facility (GEF)

The

Since its inception in 1991, the Global Environment Facility has provided US$6.2 billion in grants andhas generated over US$20 billion in co-financing from other sources. However the facility is too small
relative to the scale of the investment required. According to the World Bank a two-to-three foldincrease would be required for the GEF to support a market penetration program in developing
countries for energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in the next ten years. A ten foldincrease would be needed to finance a strategic global programme to support cost reduction ofpre-commercial low-carbon technologies.

The m
low-c
low-c
of a lfeasib

Towards a Global Carbon Market
Trading on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is now worth US$8 billion per year, trading onother voluntary carbon market schemes (i.e. Chicago Carbon Market Exchange etc.) are now worth
US$2 billion. The global carbon market shows a very large growth potential with the planned
expanded coverage of power and industrial sectors in the EU ETS, the opportunity for linking the
emerging regional carbon trading schemes into a single market, and as the large global emitters joinin carbon trading.

Long-Term Signals and Drivers of Investment
To support the further expansion of financing mechanisms for low carbon investment, it is importantthat clear and long-term signals on the development of a post 2012 framework are in place. A key
driver of investment in clean energy technologies will be the stability of a carbon price signal.
In creating a stable global price for carbon it will be necessary to remove broad based energy
subsidies and tariff barriers, whilst ensuring that environmental costs are internalised in energy
prices. Market mechanisms, such as carbon taxation and emissions trading, can deliver strong
incentives to drive future investment in clean technologies.

Innovation in the Development of Mechanisms and FinanceIn conclusion, to support cost-effective reductions of global GHG emissions, a transformation in thescale and incentives for international finance flows for clean energy, climate change mitigation andenergy efficiency investments is required. Developing a long-term global GHG emissions reduction
goal is of key importance to the strengthening of carbon finance after 2012. The linking of carbon
finance to policy and programmes in the context of national, regional or sectoral emissions reduction
programmes, rather than individual projects, is necessity for scaling up the impact of mitigation
activities in the post-Kyoto period. The leadership of public, multilateral and private financeinstitutions will be necessary to pilot and demonstrate the feasibility of the new schemes required by
a comprehensive carbon financing framework after 2012.

18

Th

Mitigastabili
of co
comm
place

Critica
techn
The e
advan
offsetstrengecono
the stts andsmall
e foldoping
n fold
on of

ng on
worth
anned
g the
rs joinortantA key
ignal.
nergy
nergy
strong

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 19

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context

The Low-Carbon Society in an International Context – Summary
The main aim of the second workshop was to examine the practical steps needed to develop
low-carbon societies. The focus was to be largely on feasibility, through an analysis of current
low-carbon society activities, locally, nationally, regionally and internationally. In creating a definitionof a low-carbon society at the first workshop, a common understanding of the necessity and thefeasibility of decarbonising our societies was achieved.
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on the levels at which
stabilisation of GHG emissions occurs. Stabilisation of global GHG emissions, even at the lower rangeof concentrations, can be achieved with existing technology as well as those we expect to becommercialised within the coming decades. This is dependent on the necessary incentives being inplace throughout each stage of the innovation cycle.
Critical to creating the conditions for scaling up the level of investment in emerging clean
technologies is the development of investment financing that is aligned to a global price for carbon.
The establishment of a global price for carbon can create conditions where investors can takeadvantage of the co-benefits of financing the development of low-carbon technologies whilst
offsetting costs against reductions of GHG emissions. It is vital that low-carbon financing isstrengthened in order that the transition to a low-carbon society can be both environmentally andeconomically feasible. Low-carbon financing needs to be flexible and long-term in order to create
the stability in future investment.

in then anductionarbon
uctiongationnance
red by19

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 20

3. The Low-Carbon Society – Making it Happen

Low-Carbon cities

Andy Deacon
Climate, Energy and Air Quality Strategy Manager
Greater London Authority

City level action
The fight to tackle climate change will either be won in cities such as London, or it will not be wonat all. Cities are responsible for 75% of all the world’s carbon emissions. What London does to cut
its emissions, and by working with other cities to do the same, could make a real difference totackling climate change.
Cities are taking action. The New York City government has retrofitted with carbon-saving
installations 200 million square feet of its own buildings, and has 2,000 hybrid vehicles in its own
fleets. Barcelona’s solar ordinance requires all new buildings above a certain size to use solar energy
for hot water systems. This measure has led to a 15-fold increase in solar thermal sales and use infive years. Many cities are introducing standards for sustainable construction that are often higher
than national or regional levels, including Melbourne and Berlin.

London’s city action plan
In order to calculate what investment is needed for London’s low carbon future, different carbon
scenarios to 2026 need to be considered. Different technology scenarios have been costed and thecosts have been benchmarked and agreed with widespread stakeholder involvement. For the hybrid
scenario, it has been estimated that £8.5 billion of new investment will be required over the coming
20 years. Delivery mechanisms have been discussed with the investment community and asubstantial investment appetite has been identified. Onward work involves looking at a buying
co-operative, a rental scheme, and a project facilitation service and green fund.
Savings by measure, across both the domestic and commercial sectors, thermal efficiency measuresand more energy efficient lighting and appliances are likely to deliver as much as 4 million tonnes in
the current environment – and as much as 9 million tonnes with the right regulations and incentives
in place. Changes to London’s energy supply will also exert a strong influence on ability to cut CO2.
Combined Cooling Heating and Power could save as much as 6.2 million tonnes annually, given theright policy support. Even with existing regulations, cuts of more than 2 million tonnes are possible.
There is significant potential for energy from biomass and waste. Behavioural change – simple things
like turning off lights and appliances, are often underestimated but are capable of deliveringsignificant reductions – as much as 1.7 million tonnes from the domestic sector. Within the transport
sector – London is looking at travel demand management and modal shift, as well as promoting the
rapid uptake of low carbon vehicles and fuels.

20

Th

Inter

In conorder
for acworld
InternMayochang
to busconfidDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 21

The Low-Carbon Society – Making it Happen

International collaboration
In conclusion, significant efforts have been made to evaluate and implement potential solutions inorder to improve the air quality of our mega cities and to reduce the CO2 produced. As the urgency
for action increases, large cities need to build wider and stronger links with other cities across theworld. Our work through the C40 large cities climate leadership group is one example of this.
Internationally, other bodies such as Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) and the World
Mayors’ Council on Climate Change are bringing city leaders together to promote action on climatechange. City governments must lead by example with measurable outcomes, as this sends messages
to businesses and citizens alike. Political leadership and public action are crucial to give business theconfidence to accelerate the development and use of low-carbon technologies.

e won
to cutnce tosavings own
nergy
use inhigherarbon
nd thehybrid
oming
and a
uying

asuresnes inntivest CO2.
en thessible.
thingsveringnsportng the21

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 22

The Low-Carbon Society – Making it Happen

Th

The Contribution of Business to a Low-Carbon Society

Howe
green
lower
drivinuse ttranspthan
designGraham Smith
Senior Vice President
External Affairs and Environmental Affairs,
Toyota Motor Europe
Chairman, Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership
There is now little serious scientific doubt that climate change is happening and that human activity
is the major factor behind the changes. It is also becoming increasingly apparent that the cost ofinaction will vastly outweigh that of action. More positively, however, it is also becoming clear thatby meeting these challenges and developing appropriate solutions, new markets and commercial
opportunities will emerge. By recognising environmental challenges, investing in innovativetechnologies and introducing sustainable practices ahead of government regulation, business cantake advantage of these opportunities. For Toyota, as an example, the challenge is to reuse direct
and indirect emissions from our plants, products and services and at the same time, developing newtechnological solutions which appeal to consumers and provide mobility to millions.
But here we face a dilemma. The ultimate objective of economies is growth, delivering, as it does,
improved human welfare. However, with this growth come the impacts of transport. There is anincreased demand for transport services and also demand for mobility – in other words, more journeys
and more vehicles making those journeys. As one would expect, this increased motorisation results inincreased negative environmental and economic impacts – greenhouse gas and other emissions,congestion, accidents and noise. As these negative consequences increase, many of the benefits ofmobility are undermined – limiting or even preventing free movement and restricting growth.
The assumption would seem to be that you can have either a clean environment or economic growthwith rising demand for mobility, but not both. But the challenge we face is, indeed, to deliver both– to deny this paradox by simultaneously delivering economic growth and a cleaner environment.
There is only one way to achieve this – we cannot deny society its demand for mobility, but we can
improve that mobility through the continuous application of innovation and creativity.
As well as reducing the harmful effects of automobiles on the environment, we are constantly
mindful of the need to minimise our overall environmental impact. And we demand this approachof our suppliers as better environmental performance also means better financial performance.
Reducing emissions through existing measures, such as increased efficiency, will take us a step closer
to a low-carbon economy. But on its own, it will not meet the challenges we face. New, low-carbon
technologies are needed. In pursuit of what we call the “ultimate eco-car”, we are developing a
multi-path approach. Hence, we invest in a variety of technologies: gasoline, diesel, alternative fuels
and electric vehicles. For Toyota, hybrid technology is the common thread for the present and future
and we are convinced that hybrid is truly the core technology because it can be applied effectively
to improve the efficiency of all these power trains, including fuel cell.

22

The L
camp
the D
We a
Transpin thepublic
techn

One o
betwe
econo
bands
Only
of allctivity
ost ofr thatmercialvativess candirect
g new

does,
is an
urneysults insions,
fits of

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 23

The Low-Carbon Society – Making it Happen

However, vehicle technology alone will not provide a ‘silver bullet’ to reduce road transport
greenhouse gas emissions. This will require an integrated approach, including the increased use oflower carbon fuels, such as biofuels. There is also an important role for motorists to adopt smarter
driving techniques which can improve vehicle efficiency by close to 10 per cent. Drivers also need touse their cars responsibly, sticking to speed limits and making use of walking, cycling, public
transport and tele-working where appropriate. With nearly one third of car journeys travelling lessthan two miles, the opportunities are considerable. Good infrastructure and planning policies
designed to reduce the need to travel can also have a longer term effect.
The Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (LowCVP) has argued strongly for information and education
campaigns to encourage low-carbon vehicle purchase and smarter driving. We were delighted thatthe Department for Transport recently commenced its Climate Change Communications campaign.
We are also pleased that the Government has taken up our recommendations for a Low Carbon
Transport Innovation Platform and support to encourage fleet demonstration of new technologies
in the UK. The Partnership has also provided key support in the establishment of Cenex, apublic-private centre of excellence that is working alongside LowCVP to bring forward newtechnologies.
One of the Partnership’s early achievements was to broker the introduction of a voluntary agreement
between the Government, environmental groups and the car industry, to develop and display a fueleconomy label on all new cars. The label is banded to indicate the CO2 emissions of the car, with thebands being linked to Vehicle Excise Duty.
Only by working together can a low-carbon society be assured, one which is to the benefitof all concerned.

rowth
r bothment.
we cantantlyroache.

closerarbon
ping ae fuels
futurectively23

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 24

The Low-Carbon Society – Making it Happen

4.

The Low-Carbon Society: Making it Happen – SummaryThe

The threat of global climate change will require an international response. Cities around the world
are responsible for approximately 75% of global carbon emissions, therefore collaboration between
cities and action at individual city level can have a significant impact on the success of both the
mitigation of, and adaptation to, the impacts of climate change.
Significant efforts are being made in our cities to deliver solutions that both address our environmental
concerns whilst bolstering economic growth. However, this needs to be supported by strong politicalleadership and real public action. It is vital that our businesses are given strong enough signals inmaking a transition to a low-carbon society so that new and emerging products and markets can betaken advantage of and developed to the scale required. Equally, citizens of our cities need to be
encouraged to adopt low-carbon lifestyles. Policies should address the need to deliver the necessary
incentives for business to invest in low-carbon technologies and should raise awareness of the impact
our lifestyles have, thereby enabling the necessary shift in behaviour in our cities.
Transport and mobility presents one of the key challenges to delivering low-carbon cities.
With continued economic growth comes improved human welfare and an increase in demand fortransport services and mobility. This increase of motorisation exacerbates the negative environmental
and economic impacts from the transport sector. As negative impacts increase, our levels of mobility
become undermined, often resulting in posing limitations on transport infrastructure.
Whilst the use of existing technologies and measures will contribute to the development of
low-carbon cities, they will not be sufficient for the challenge we face. Therefore, an integrated
approach that takes into account the new emerging technologies alongside innovative policies andmeasures across the transport sector is required. In creating the conditions for an integrated
approach to transport and mobility, new markets and commercial opportunities will be delivered thatbusiness can take advantage of. Equally important is enabling citizens to make the transition to
low-carbon transport solutions, through the development of sustainable mobility transport systems
and by promoting the use of walking, cycling, public transport and flexible working.

The inof fivrise oexcee

When
not berisk, aDelay
good

StabilthereadeclinThe coCosts

The kfailure
other

Carbo
EU an
marke
heavy
establBut to••••24

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 25

4. The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

The economics of achieving a Low-Carbon Society

world
tween
h the

mentalolitical
nals inan be
to beessarympact

cities.
nd formentalobility

nt ofgratedes andgratedd thaton tostems

Su-Lin Garbett
Stern Review TeamHer Majesty’s Treasury
UKThe intensity of projected impacts of climate change increase as temperatures rise and an increaseof five degrees would have devastating results. We are already committed to a temperaturerise of 0.5-1ºC above pre-industrial times and business as usual would give serious risks ofexceeding 5ºC.
When estimating impacts, it is essential to take into account risk and uncertainty, and models should
not be taken too literally. However, new science gives us the ability to incorporate the economics ofrisk, and the magnitude of effects in the middle of the plausible range can be used.
Delaying mitigation is dangerous and costly and given the costs of impacts, taking urgent action isgood economics.
Stabilising below 450ppm CO2e would require emissions to peak by 2010 with a 6-10% p.a. decline
thereafter. If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm CO2e if we achieve annual
declines of 1 – 2.5% afterwards. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required.
The cost of the trajectory consistent with 550ppm CO2e stabilisation averages 1% of GDP per year.
Costs will not be evenly distributed and there will be opportunities and co-benefits.
The key principles of climate change policy include: carbon pricing; R,D&D; and related market
failures and behavioural change. Objectives such as growth and energy security, are consistent withother policy goals.
Carbon markets can grow, but to be effective, require good design. A key instrument both for the
EU and potentially globally is the EU ETS, which is a powerful basis on which to build global carbon
markets. Global carbon markets could grow by five times if we included electricity generation andheavy industry from the world’s top 20 emitters. Trading is a potentially powerful instrument forestablishing a global carbon price.
But to actually deliver the efficiency benefits of a trading market, they need to be based on:• Scarcity – fundamental for the market to work;• Credible, long-term trading periods – needed for confidence that the scheme will be in place
for a long time, with predictable structures for change;• Open, deep and liquid markets – expanding across sectors and countries is necessary for
efficiency and the automatic transfer of financing across borders; and• Efficient allocation methods – free allocation may be important for transition costs, but it
can distort incentives, and raise overall carbon emissions and therefore prices, so should
only be temporary.

25

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 26

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

But a carbon price alone won’t deliver because of policy uncertainty and barriers to new technologies
in energy markets. The private sector plays a key role in determining how technologies are developed
and deployed but given the knowledge spillovers (learning externalities) they have less incentive toinvest. Costs come down with scale and experience, so policies (incentives and regulation) should
support markets for these technologies, especially in their early stages of development.
Existing technologies have benefited from this support. Clear review process and exit strategies areneeded as well as stability to nurture developments. Technology co-operation can reduce duplicationand costs, and increase the scale of action by spreading risk.
Regulation has several important economic roles: supporting implicit prices for carbon; accelerating
technology; and overcoming other barriers. Economists often dismiss them too quickly althoughmodern theory is beginning to clarify their role. Information is important to help people make sounddecisions. There is a need to promote a shared understanding of responsible behaviour across all
societies to promote collaboration, and encourage political momentum for action.
Policy requires urgent and international action, pricing for damages from greenhouse gases,
supporting technology development and combating deforestation. International co-operation needs
to be built in order to address the following and spread awareness of other countries actions:

Th

The

The G
addre
The o
long-tdecad
this b• Agree stabilisation level – resultant emissions pathway;

1. Cli• Determine equity consideration;

It is ato fra
chang
ozone
CO2 e
alread• Address national emissions targets (by 2050, 60-90% emissions reduction by developed
countries – on course by 2020);• Reduce costs through global carbon price (transfers through trading building coalitions);• Address deforestation and technology policy; and• Enforcement mechanism is the will of the domestic population – responsible behaviour.
Our understanding of the risks of climate change has advanced strongly and we understand theurgency and scale of action required. Unless emissions are curbed, climate change will bring highcosts for human development, economies and the environment. Limiting concentrations is possible
and the costs are modest relative to the costs of inaction. We know that the technologies andeconomic incentives for effective action are available or can be created. We are in a much better
position now to use our shared understanding to agree on what goals to adopt and what action to
take. Decisive and strong international action is urgent: delays mean greater risks and higher costs.

2. Sta
glo

The g
of CO
entire
which

3. Te
ch

The c
challe
must
Green
reduc
quest

The roThe b
and th
energ
techn

26

logies
loped
ive tohould
ment.
es arecationratinghough
sound
oss allgases,
needs

loped

d the
g highossibles andbetteron tocosts.

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 27

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

The Role of Technology in a Low-Carbon Society

Professor Jae Edmonds
Senior Staff Scientist and Technical Leader of Economic Programat the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Joint Global Change
Research Institute at the University of Maryland
USA
The Global Energy Technology Strategy Programme (GTSP) is a research programme designed toaddress climate change issues within the context of an international, public/private collaboration.
The objective of the programme is to assess the role that technology can play in managing thelong-term risks of climate change. A recent GTSP report summarises some of highlights of almost a
decade of GTSP research and can be found at http://gtsp.battelle.org. Some of the key findings fromthis body of work include:

1. Climate is a long-term problem, with implications for actions today
It is a century scale problem which casts a shadow all the way back to the present. It is impossible
to frame an effective and efficient public policy for the present without an understanding of climatechange and its unique characteristics. Climate change is not just the “acid rain” or “stratosphericozone” problem with a different name. Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at any level means that global
CO2 emissions must peak and then decline forever. The 450ppm global CO2 emissions trajectory isalready at the peak.

2. Stabilising the concentration of CO2 means fundamental change to theglobal energy system
The global energy system must ultimately become increasingly carbon neutral if the concentrationof CO2 is to be stabilised. Ultimately, the global energy system must cease greenhouse gas emissions
entirely. The rate and timing of that transition will determine the anthropogenic climate change towhich the world must adapt.

3. Technology will play a central role in addressing the growing mitigation
challenge in the near-, mid- and long-term.
The challenge of scale grows exponentially over the century. Daunting technology deployment
challenges lay in the immediate future. However, successful accomplishment of near-term goals
must be followed by the accomplishment of increasingly ambitious emissions mitigation.
Greenhouse gas concentrations can be stabilised with any technology set. Emissions can always be
reduced by reductions in the level of human prosperity. So, feasibility is not in question. What is inquestion is cost.
The role of technology is to help manage the cost of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations.
The better emissions mitigating technologies perform, the lower the social cost of stabilisation,and the fewer resources that will need to be diverted from other useful ends to changing the global
energy system. Every emissions mitigation regime must start with the then existing suite oftechnologies. But, technologies can change and improve over time.

27

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 28

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Improving the suite of technologies available to address emissions mitigation over time will be
important because the challenge of emissions mitigation grows exponentially, not linearly, over the
century. Thus, unlike a traditional environmental pollutant problem in which a single set of changes
can be made to address the problem, climate change will require ever tighter constraints of the
global energy system, creating an ever larger premium on energy technology advance. This in turnargues for investments to both improve the existing suite of technologies, but also for investments
in very basic science to lay down the foundation for whole new generations of technology to be
deployed in the middle and latter part of the 21st century. Such investments could create entirely
new technology options to address ever-growing emissions mitigation challenge.

Th

Chan

Technology systems
The GTSP conducted extensive research into the potential role of six technology systems both intheir present form and as they might evolve. This set of technologies was chosen for its potential toa play an increasingly significant role in a climate constrained world. That suite included:
CO2 capture and storage, Biotechnology (including soil carbon; sequestration via reforestation
and afforestation; growth of crops for their energy content; and potential advances from thebiological revolution in science), Hydrogen systems, Nuclear energy, Wind and solar, andEnd-use energy technologies including building, industry and transportation technologies. Each ofthese technology systems faces its own unique set of challenges to large-scale deployment in a
climate-constrained world.
The GTSP found that the more diverse the suite of technologies that could be deployed to reduce
GHG emissions and the better the performance of those technologies, the lower the cost to societyof limiting anthropogenic climate change. While energy technology is central to addressing climatechange, the GTSP also found that a technology strategy complemented a broader response to
climate change including scientific research, emissions limitation, and adaptation to climate change.

Technology deployment in a climate constrained world
The mere existence of technology is insufficient to ensure its deployment in the global economy.
Because climate change is a long-term, global public goods problem, competitive market forcesalone do not reflect the social value of GHG emissions. Stabilising GHG concentrations requires thata value be placed on GHG emissions. Since the atmosphere is indifferent to the source of GHG
emissions, minimising the social cost of stabilizing GHG concentrations requires that all emissions see
the same social value or price. The fewer the exceptions to that rule, the lower the social cost of
stabilisation. Leaving any major emissions source unvalued, implies greater social cost forstabilisation. For example, leaving land-use change CO2 emissions unvalued not only raises the social
cost of stabilisation, but also lays the foundation for a mid-century environmental disaster.
Cost minimisation also implies a rising price of greenhouse gases as time passes. The price of carbon
starts low and rises through a series of regular doublings that result in an eventual global CO2
emissions peak and perpetual decline thereafter.
Near-term carbon prices depend on both the concentration at which CO2 is stabilised and the degree
and timing of accession by the world’s nations. Meeting the goal of stabilising CO2 concentrations
at 450 ppm or below requires virtually all nations of the world to participate in an aggressive
emissions mitigation regime by 2020. Greater flexibility in the timing of participation of the world’s
nations exists if the concentration of CO2 is limited to 550 ppm. However the risks of dangerous
anthropogenic climate change, and therefore the associated impacts, among others, on humansociety, are greatly increased.

28

Thoug
over tto how
ackno
green
consu
psych
individrationthis mthey w
Both osocialpersp
of thlandscthat davailaunless
never
dema

Anoth
that it
broad
needs
would
transpFinallyworld
techn
Its usedema
for cofor airenerg
urban
and lowill beer theangesof then turnments
to be
ntirelyoth intial touded:
tationm theandach oft in aeduce
ocietyimate
nse toange.

nomy.
forcess thatGHG
ns seeost ofst forsocial

arbon
l CO2

egree
ationsessiveworld’serous
uman

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 29

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Changing Energy Consumption: Why it happens and how it can be made to happen

Dr. Harold Wilhite
Senior Researcher
Centre for Development and the Environment
University of Oslo
NorwayThough consumption is something that has concerned me and a handful of other social scientists
over the past 25 years, most attention in the energy research and policy communities has been given
to how to move towards greener production. However, over the last few years there is a growing
acknowledgement that the ways we consume energy must also change if rapid decreases ingreenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved. The little work that has been dedicated toconsumption research in the energy world to date has been dominated by economists andpsychologists. Many economists share the illusion that consumption is something that is done byindividuals operating in a social vacuum. In their models, they reduce life and energy choices to arational process of individual utility maximisation. When the energy policy world began to realise that
this model was not working, psychologists were brought in – not to examine the economists – asthey well might have done, but to work on attitudes how to motivate individuals to save energy.
Both of these conventional approaches premier the individual and downplay the importance of thesocial and cultural contexts in which energy is used. Deep changes will not be achieved without aperspective that acknowledges the social dimensions of consumption; that is to say the contributionof things like social and family relations, social conventions, shared ideologies and material
landscapes. Applying a socio-cultural perspective to energy use and energy savings would emphasisethat demand comes not only from individual consumers, but is structured by the range of choices
available. No amount of taxes or price increases on automobiles or fuel will affect mobility practices
unless the consumer has an alternative; for example, we cannot expect people to take a bus thatnever comes or purchase a smaller refrigerator if it is not available on the market. In short, energy
demand should be re-conceptualised as a product of both choosers and the set of choices available.
Another important point is that people are not interested in energy per se, but rather in the services
that it provides, such as light, heat, entertainment, comfort and cleanliness. Energy policy needs tobroaden its focus from technical and market efficiency to an examination of how energy service
needs can be achieved in the least energy intensive way. Taking mobility as an example, such a policy
would not only emphasise energy efficient automobiles, but would encourage more robust public
transportation systems, infrastructures for bicycles and in general more holistic city planning.
Finally, there is the point that new practices will not materialise out of thin air. The socio-material
world we have created, in the form of buildings; energy and transport infrastructures; and household
technologies all contribute to scripting of the ways we use energy. Air conditioning is an example.
Its use is growing rapidly around the world. The explanation is not that people have elevated theirdemands for thermal comfort, but because the constructed world that they inhabit no longer allows
for comfortable natural cooling. Building designs, materials and infrastructures have paved the way
for air conditioning. A policy aimed at device efficiency will only make a small dent in future thermalenergy demand. What is needed is retention of local knowledge on passive cooling and changes inurban and building construction practices. A policy interested in deep reductions must take a holistic
and long-term approach to change.
29

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 30

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Th

Alignment of climate change issues with sustainable development goals

In ordto begoals
climatProfessor P. R. Shukla
Public Systems Group at the
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad
India
Low Carbon Societies can be seen as a “Development Pathway” with dual goals. Nationalsocio-economic objectives and targets can be tackled, while addressing global objectives for thestabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
The concept of Sustainable Low Carbon Societies involves developing the mutual efficiency ofsocial/economic indicators and climate quality. This collaboration could be developed through:Innovations (technology, institutions, International and regional cooperation; Targeted technology
and investment flows; Aligning stakeholder interests; Focusing on inputs (and not only outputs) andLong-term perspective to avoid lock-ins.
A roadmap for a Low Carbon Society can be drawn with the intention of delivering a global efficient
frontier, balancing cost-effectiveness, equity and sustainability goals (UNFCCC). The specifics of theroadmap would differ across countries.

TechnologicalInnovations

Social/Institutional
Management

Low
CarbonSociety

National
Socioeconomic
Objectives& Targets

Aligning Markets
Co-benefits

Long-term Vision
Avoid Lock-ins
Modify Preferences

For ex
1990
hunge
by 15
intersinformenhan

DriverThe catarget
been
mater
of Re
Infrastmoda
and inchang

The b
to intesustaiemplo
enviro

Anoth
South
The c
(MDG
region

Regio

In co

Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks

Sustainability

Sust

GlobalClimateChangeObjectives& Targets

In ordneeddevelo
need
need

Stab

The b
thus iA sust‘Gran(federEvenboth f30

tionalor thency ofough:ologys) andficientof the

al

ic
es
ts

e
e
es
ts

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 31

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Sustainable Low Carbon Society: An Analysis for India
In order to mainstream climate change in national development, climate policies and actions need
to be aligned with millennium development goals (MDGs), national development targets and agreed
goals under extant international agreements. Resilience to vulnerabilities and adapting to changing
climate parameters should also be developed.
For example: The MDG1 is to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, with targets to halve, between
1990 and 2015, the proportion of people with income below $1 a day and those who suffer fromhunger. India’s national plan intends to double the per capita income by 2012, reduce poverty ratioby 15% by 2012 and contain population growth to 16.2% between 2001-2011. These goals
intersect with climate change mitigation as higher income increases access to services, food, fuel,information, thus enhancing mitigative and adaptive capacity. Higher climate variability would
enhance the risks of meeting these goals.
Drivers of India’s low-carbon society scenario (550 ppmv equivalent) involve a number of factors.
The carbon emission target is a 70% reduction over the base case by 2050. Energy device efficiency
targets are based on demand and supply and a sustainable portfolio of measures havebeen calculated to meet the emissions target. Dematerialisation involves a change in building
materials and design, and policy packages relating to sustainable development. The practiceof Reduce (demand), Recycle and Reuse (3R) will also contribute to dematerialisation.
Infrastructure investments should be made to avoid lock-ins and to shift demand (e.g. transport
modal split). R&D and technology transfer should assist a leapfrog to the efficiency frontier,and include innovations to shift the efficiency frontier. Planning and governance would facilitate achange in lifestyles and behaviours through institutions, laws and policies.
The bio-diesel sector in India involves multiple dividends and conflict. There is potential for this sector
to intersect with both MDG 1: to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger and MDG 7: environmental
sustainability. Jatropha plantations and oil extraction plants have the potential to provide rural
employment/farm income (from waste lands), energy security (as imported fossil oil is replaced),environmental benefits and water and food security.
Another example is the co-benefits of the South-Asia Energy-Water Cooperation. The Integrated
South-Asia Energy-Water Market is expected to produce significant savings in Energy, CO2 and SO2.
The co-benefits include more water for food production (MDG1), 16 GW additional Hydropower(MDG1&7), flood control (MDG1&7) and lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness ofregional industries (MDG1).
Regional solutions are key to the success of uniting the goals.

In conclusion
In order to move from a climate-centric to a development-centric paradigm a number of measuresneed to be taken. In the short-term, climate change mitigation needs to be aligned with
development goals and lock-ins need to be avoided. In the medium-term, innovations and actions
need to be developed and deployed in order to deliver co-benefits. And in the long-term preferences
need to be influenced and climate policy signals need to be created in order to achieve stabilisation.

Stabilisation through Sustainability: The Post-Kyoto Regime
The burden sharing metaphor has posed climate stabilisation as a zero-sum (or negative sum) game,thus inviting conflicts. Sustainability makes it a positive-sum game that would induce cooperation.
A sustainability roadmap provides a practical way-out from the climate-centric commitments (as in‘Grand architecture’) that have prevented cooperation, and the non-binding ambitious goals(federalism or ‘Madisonian’ approach) which cannot produce credible and stable policy signals.
Even in sustainable low-carbon societies, stabilisation would require climate focused policies,
both for mitigation (beyond energy) and adaptation.
31

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 32

The Key Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

5.

The key elements of a low-carbon society – Summary

The in
broad
quest
The d
was t

The consensus building from the Stern Review is that delaying mitigation of climate change isdangerous and costly while taking urgent action is good economics. To this end, key policy activities
identified as important factors for achieving low-carbon societies include those related to carbon
trading, technology and behavioural change.
Carbon trading is a potentially powerful tool and the design of carbon markets is central toits success. It is important to recognise that carbon pricing alone will not deliver a
low-carbon society.

The foTechnology will play a central role in addressing the growing mitigation challenge in the near-,mid- and long-term and will help manage the cost of stabilising GHG emissions. Scale-up of existing
technologies and development of new technologies needs considerable channelling of investment
funds. Of the technology systems available, six have been identified with great mitigation potential;
though several must be deployed as none is the proverbial “silver bullet”.

What
comp

The challenge of achieving a low-carbon society also needs to account for changes in humanbehaviour – for example energy research should look at consumption as well as production. It is
important to consider the social and cultural contexts in which energy is used and acknowledge thesocial dimension of consumption. Energy demand needs to be re-conceptualised as a product ofboth choosers and the set of choices available – i.e. what low-carbon alternatives are available toindividuals? Consumers are not interested in energy per se, rather the services energy provides thus
policy should concentrate on services.

3. cutA link to sustainable development will assist developing countries in becoming low-carbon societies
with efficiency of both social/economic indicators and climate quality. The objectives of low-carbon
societies need to be aligned with structures such as national development targets and theMillennium Development Goals. A case study on India has been presented to show how this isbeing undertaken.

There
it sholevel othat csmall
it is goneces
that nWhat
to cu

1. cut2. cut4. abo5. inc6. inc7. inc8. donA com
Strong
It was
event

The
Will
reduc
Scale

32

nge istivities
arbon

ral tover anear-,
xisting
tment
ential;uman
n. It isge theuct ofble tos thuscietiesarbon
d the
this isDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 33

5. Interactive Session

The interactive session provided the participants with the opportunity to share their opinions on abroad range of low-carbon society questions. Participants responded to a set of multiple choicequestions using hand-held monitors and the results were displayed as graphs on an overhead screen.
The design of the session allowed participants to change their answer during the discussion, and it
was thus possible to observe how the discussion steered people’s opinions.
The following two questions were closely related:
What do you think the change in global greenhouse gas emissions will be in 2050 comparedto current levels?
What do you think the change in global greenhouse gas emissions should be in 2050
compared to current levels?
1. cut by 50% or more
2. cut by 25-50%
3. cut by 5-25%
4. about the same
5. increased by 5-25%
6. increased by 25- 50%
7. increased by 50% or more
8. don’t know
There was a big difference between what people thought the change in emissions will be and what
it should be. Most people agreed that there should be a significant cut, however there was a greaterlevel of disagreement on what the level of emissions reductions will actually be. Only half believedthat cuts would actually happen, with a few voting for ambitious cuts but the majority voting for asmall cut or even an increase in emissions. It was noted that this reflects the realisation of how hard
it is going to be to decrease emissions. Although most of the people present thought that cuts werenecessary, it was clear that confidence in the formal negotiations process was low, especially giventhat not all countries are on board.
A comment was made that it is important to create the confidence that change will happen.
Strong concern was expressed over the slow speed at which international action was taking place.
It was noted that urgency was not reflected in the international processes and that extreme weather
events and human disasters from the impacts of climate change would eventually drive political will.
The next question drew attention to a persistent theme throughout the workshop.
Will behavioural change or technology contribute more to greenhouse gas emission
reductions by 2050?
Scale range for responses: 1 = behaviour; 10 = technology.

33

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 34

Interactive Session

Initially, the response to this question displayed viewpoints quite evenly balanced between behaviour,
technology and a mixture of the two. A comment was made that there is plenty of technology
already available, and, therefore, it is the behavioural issue which needs to be solved.
Other participants proposed that behaviour depends on a price for carbon, and it will be throughmarket signals that change will occur – if the price is right then technology will be adopted. As thediscussion proceeded, there was a wave change in opinion away from technology and towards
behaviour. The relative roles of technology and behaviour in achieving a low carbon society were arecurrent theme throughout the workshop, providing much discussion. Overall, it was generally
acknowledged that there is no “silver bullet” and it will be a combination of the two that willproduce the desired results.
The last question related to different actors and their responsibility to initiate the transition which
could deliver low-carbon societies. Participants were asked which demographic had the most
responsibility to initiate low-carbon development.
The initial results were as follows:
Government 53%
Business 32%
Individuals 17%
It was suggested that ‘individuals’ is not a useful category as the other two are comprised ofindividuals, and a replacement could have been social networks. Some participants felt that it waswithin business that the people with the most influence were situated and that it was businesses
that have the ability to make or break policy. However a different viewpoint was put forward that
although all three play a role, when it really starts to hurt, it will be governments that implement thepolicies and this will be the key to success. Business can deliver, but frameworks are needed and theGovernment could play a major role in providing these frameworks and incentives to help businessdeliver. It was also suggested that voluntarism also has a role to play, however policies are neededfrom government. These viewpoints on the importance of government were clearly influential, as isreflected in the final results:
Government 60%
Business 22%
Individuals 18%

The

34

viour,ology
olved.
roughAs thewards
were anerally
at will

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 35

Expert Workshop

which
most

ed of
t was
nessesd thatnt thend thesinesseeded, as is14-15 June 2007
The Mermaid Conference and Events Centre, London

35

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 36

1. Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

Low-Carbon Society Modelling

Dr Neil Strachan
Policy Studies
Institute (PSI)UK

Dr Junichi Fujino
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES)Japan

Low-carbon society scenarios are described societies consistent with reducing roughly 50%
GHG/CO2 of global emissions by 2050 compared with the base year (1990 or current), satisfying
adequate service demand and proposing possible combinations of technological and social
innovations based on favourable socio-economic future visions. In order to move from scenarios tomodelling, there is a need to quantify future socio-economic scenarios, identify possible
countermeasures toward low-carbon societies and verify favourable combinations to realise them.
Low-carbon society modelling tools quantify and qualify future trends, potentials and actions.
The models all have strengths and weaknesses, different coverage, different scales and special
features. Development and climate need to be aligned for the transition to a low(er)-carbon society
as global development along a high carbon path is untenable and stand-alone decarbonisation iscostly. In addition most sustainable development actions are climate friendly and mainstreaming
climate change in development actions reduces welfare losses.
The UKERC Annual Energy Modelling Conference (AEMC) was held in Oxford in December 2006.
This was an open symposium with UK energy policy stakeholders followed by a technical modelling
workshop. Particular emphasis was on developing country participation and a key output was todefine comparative modelling runs which will be a direct research output to the UK-Japan research
project Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development.
Workshop summary. All presentations can be found at: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk
The main outcome of the AEMC was to use models of different scales and types to investigate therestructuring of energy systems under long-term low-carbon societies. This involves technology
pathways, behavioural responses, economic implications and required policy measures. Similarities toearlier collaborative modelling projects were acknowledged (e.g. IMCP, EMF), and to scenario
descriptions of low-carbon society futures (e.g., Tyndall Centre). Key differences were also identified
such as: the broader goal of combining findings on economic and technological implications withassessment of required policy measures; an emphasis on long-term deep reductions in CO2(and other GHGs); an emphasis on developing country participation, including institutes previously
less integrated into modelling networks; and a mixture of country vs. global and top-down vs.
bottom-up models.
A limited set of scenarios were agreed including the base case, the carbon price ($10/tCO2 in 2013
rising exponentially to $100/tCO2 in 2050) and “Carbon plus”: (carbon price plus additional
measures to achieve low-carbon societies). Common input parameters included the same targets, allphysical parameters in common units, commonality on quantitative parameters and description ofqualitative inputs. The academic publication of this modelling exercise will be forthcoming in a
special issue of Climate Policy. There will also be analytical input into the G8 Gleneagles dialogue
when Japan holds the G8 presidency in 2008.

36

Bu

The U
providmode
substaovera
mode
analys

There
(Depa
M-M
low a
techn
sensitanalys

Initialportfosignal
£65/Tof anncost etradeno do
scale

50%
sfyingsocialios tossiblehem.

tions.
pecialocietytion isaming

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 37

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

The UK MARKAL-Macro (M-M) modelling for the 2007 UK Energy White Paper is indicative toprovide a low-carbon society result. MARKAL is a widely-used, technology-rich dynamic optimisation
model as well as an integrated energy systems model. The new UK MARKAL model has been
substantially rebuilt, with validation and transparency on data and assumptions. The M-M maximises
overall discounted utility and has its initial calibration to the UK energy system in year 2000. The
model then optimises in 5-year time steps through to 2050. A full range of scenarios and sensitivity
analysis is carried out in a systematic ‘what-if’ framework.
There are fifty-three scenario sets in the UK Energy White Paper, including the UKERC vs. BERR
(Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform) assumptions, and the standard vs.
M-M model. These scenarios differ in: constraint stringency – with 20%, 40%, 60% CO2 reductions;
low and high global fuel prices, restricted innovation (2020 and 2010 levels); high and low
technology cost estimates (by technology class); no nuclear or no nuclear/no CCS; and renewablesensitivity (RO and technology costs). They are based on key policy drivers, NOT a formaluncertainty
analysis.
Initial findings show that a 60% reduction in UK CO2 emissions entails radical changes in technology
portfolios, resources and infrastructure use. This long-term transition requires a strong CO2 pricesignal with a central M-M model estimate of £105/TCO2 by 2050, within a scenario range of£65/TCO2 to £176/TCO2. The resultant impacts on the UK economy are more modest with a rangeof annual GDP losses in 2050 from 0.3% to 1.5% (equivalent to £billion7.5 to £billion42.0). Higher
cost estimates are strongly influenced by pessimistic low-carbon technology assessments. Numerous
trade-offs illustrate the very considerable uncertainties in future UK low-carbon scenarios, e.g.
no dominant technology class within the future electricity portfolio (i.e. coal CCS vs. nuclear vs. large
scale renewables).

2006.
delling
was tosearchment.

te theologyties toenariontifieds withn CO2iouslywn vs.

2013
tionalets, allon of
g in alogue

37

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 38

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

How to link modelling and practical steps to achieve a Low-Carbon Society

Professor Yuzuru Matsuoka
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies
Kyoto University
Japan
This research looks at environmental options towards a low-carbon society in Japan with the aim ofproposing options for long-term global warming policy. There are two stages to making a
low-carbon society scenario; the first of these on designing a low-carbon society is presented here. Workon the second stage on constructing a policy roadmap toward the low-carbon society is just starting.

A) Design of a low-carbon society
Creation of narrative storylines of future low-carbon societies
Criteria for selection of a scenario was that there was plausibility of combining basic socio-economic
factors and that it was straightforward to see analogues to other combinations. Within this,three factors were considered as key elements of future direction – social contexts (quick-changing
or nearly steady-state society, eco-centric or techno-centric, individualism or collectivism); futuregoals (environmental targets such as a 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, socio-economic targets,
such as annually 1-2 percent increase of per capita GDP, moderation of regional and generational
inequality); and technical innovations.
In this case we selected two societies (i.e. scenarios) containing major features of the society whichwere easy to grasp – see table:
Senario A “Doraemon”

Scenario B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralised/Community

Techno-centric
Centralised production /recycle

Self-sufficient
Local production for local consumption

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Bu

Chang
of exiCabin
both t

Descr

Assum
and i
consu
set bydemo

Quan

It is dbe drstruct
mode
energ
and d
mode

Ident

Six hufutureinformeleme
60-70This taby mechoiceFor Scenerg

CO2 (M

Energy(MTOE

GDP (tPopula(%) is38

ety

aim of
ing a
Work
ing.

nomic
this,
nging
futurergets,
tionalwhich

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 39

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

Changes in social indicators and various assumptions made in both scenarios are within the rangesof existing major studies of Japanese future society projections, such as the outlook planned by the
Cabinet Office. In reality, however, the future Japanese society may be a mixture of elements fromboth the scenarios.
Description of sector-wise details of the future low-carbon societies
Assumptions are made on annual growth rate of per capita GDP, a decrease in market regulation,and industrial structure. The changes in services demand that are directly related to energy
consumption, such as heating, transportation, and built environment management, etc. have been
set by assuming the changes in lifestyle of the representative people in each scenario – including
demography and urban structures.
Quantification of the macro economic and social aspects of the low-carbon societies
It is difficult to design a future society as an extrapolation of the current system as the visions may
be drastically different from today (in terms of institutions, people’s preference, and industrial
structure). To treat this problem quantitatively, several groups of models were used. These included
models to quantify the snapshot view of future society (inter-sector and macro economic models;energy technology bottom-up models; energy supply model; and transportation demand model),and dynamic models showing the inter-temporal relations of the system (population and household
model; and building dynamics model).
Identification of policy measures and packaging the measures
Six hundred technology options expected to have potential for deployment and diffusion in the
future are put in a database (the Environmental Option Database) to allow the exchange of
information between the each sectors experts and the scenario team. Coupling the database withelement models we can examine feasible combinations of energy supply and demands to satisfy
60-70% CO2 emission reduction target and future social visions quantified in the previous step.
This table summarises the results. For Scenario B, a 70% reduction of CO2 emissions can be achievedby means of a 45% reduction of final energy consumption through rationalisation and appropriate
choice of energy supply options with satisfying, and improving current service demand levels.
For Scenario A, these values are changed to 70% reduction of CO2 emission, and 40% of final
energy reduction. For both cases, fossil fuel dependency will be drastically reduced.

Year
Generation
CO2 (M+C)

1990

2000

284.0

311.5

CCS
Emission

2050
Scenario A
127.7

(41%)

42.4
284.0

311.5

85.3

Scenario B
85.2

(27%)

0.0
(27%)

85.2

(30%)

(27%)
(30%)

EnergyPrimary

446.0

523.5

334.1

(64%)

264.0

(50%)

(MTOE)

Final

292.0

380.2

225.8

(59%)

209.3

(55%)

80.0%

59.8%

Fossil fueldependency

51.0%

GDP (tril.JPY)

467.9

519.5

1080.3(208%)

700.7(135%)

Population (Mill.)

123.6

126.9

94.5

(74%)

100.3

(79%)

(%) is a ratio with 2000(%) is a ratio with 1990.
39

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 40

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

We also estimated the annual implementation cost of introducing low-carbon technologies
to achieve 70% emission reductions in 2050. The additional costs of low-carbon technologies are
1.0-1.8 trillion yen for Scenario A and 0.7-1.6 trillion yen Scenario B.
The work so far has presented detailed visions of Japan’s social and economic structure in 2050 and
identified and quantified CO2 emission reduction measures in order to realise 60-80% reductions
consistent with the future visions.
The next stage of this work, which we expect to report at the next workshop, is to establish
Japan’s roadmaps toward a low-carbon society (including social, economical and technologicalinnovation strategy).

B) Construction of a policy roadmap toward the low-carbon society• Design of policy roadmaps toward the low-carbon society• Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps considering uncertainties involved in each policy option• Analysis of robustness of the roadmap caused by societal, economical and institutional
acceptability and uncertainties
We will then transfer this experience to other countries, especially, building capacity andsupporting of Asian countries activity on developing individual countries’ own roadmaps toward
low-carbon societies.

40

Bu

Build

A low
techn
trendspolicyto com

The U
mode
A key
researdeveloin theA pro
DiffertechnpolicyDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 41

Building on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops

logieses are0 andctionsBuilding on Previous Low-Carbon Society Workshops – Summary
A low-carbon society will be achieved through a combination of social and economic factors, and bytechnological innovations and behavioural change. Modelling allows us to qualify and quantify
trends, potentials and actions in order to identify effective combinations and hence best advise
policy. Following on from the first low-carbon society workshop, work has been carried out on how
to combine the factors and create models of different scenarios.

ablishogicalThe UKERC Annual Energy Modelling Conference, held in December 2006, focussed on using
models to investigate the restructuring of energy systems under long-term low-carbon societies.
A key output was to define comparative modelling runs and analysis of this modelling will be a direct
research output to the UK-Japan low-carbon society project. An example of a model being
developed to provide a low-carbon society result is the UK MARKAL model – which has been usedin the recent Energy White Paper.

on

A project at Kyoto University has been linking modelling to Japan’s vision of a low-carbon society.
Different narrative storylines have been designed with a mixture of social contexts, future goals andtechnical innovations to create ‘societies’. The next stage will be to use the models to construct a
policy road-map, which would involve design, feasibility and analysis.

tional

y and
oward

41

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 42

2. Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies

Dongtan eco-city

InstitProfessor Jeremy Watson
Director
Global Research, Arup

A snapshot of Dongtan
Arup has partnered with Shanghai Industrial Investment Corporation (SIIC) on integrated masterplanning for the world’s first sustainable city. Dongtan will be situated on Chongming Island, thethird largest island in China, near Shanghai at the mouth of the Yangtze river and currently a large
area of mostly agricultural land. Shanghai Municipal Government is planning to turn Chongming
into an eco-island, with Dongtan as a model eco-friendly area. At three-quarters the size ofManhattan, Dongtan will be developed on 630 hectares of land as a sustainable city to attract a
range of commercial and leisure investments.

Dongtan – the Research Opportunity
Arup has proposed an Institute for Sustainability, providing commercial and learning opportunities
with a unique position to study the sustainable development of Dongtan, sharing lessons with thewider community. Seeing opportunity for collaboration between UK and Chinese academics, Arupand EPSRC (Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council) in concert created a network of UK
and Chinese academics through meetings in the UK and Hong Kong. EPSRC has allocated £1.5M to
funding these networks to work on a research agenda for sustainability.

Generic research challenges in Sustainability• Sustainable economic and business models• Community engagement for sustainable society supported by economic development• Climate change• Biodiversity and ecology• Transport• Data capture and analysis• Infrastructure: waste, water and energy■

Water – creation of a sustainable water environment■

Low carbon/energy• Systems integration

42

Ca

There
Citizesolutio
perfortechn
which
the exand syDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 43

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies

Institutes for Sustainability: Mission
There is a vital need to train new types of Economist, Planner, Manager, Engineer, Technician andCitizen capable of understanding sustainability issues, synthesising and implementing sustainable
solutions and living sustainably. Essential requirements are to measure and learn from theperformance of sustainable designs at individual building and city system levels, to develop necessary
technologies whilst respecting ecosystems and heritage. It is vital to develop new economic models
which recognise that resource constraints can be tempered by business opportunities arising fromthe exploitation of traditional and emerging technologies to design and manufacture components
and systems for sustainable solutions.

masterd, the
large
gming
ze of
ract aunitiesth the
Arup
of UK
5M to

43

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 44

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies

Shiga Prefecture

Ca

The

Professor Koji Shimada
Ritsumeikan University
Japan

Shiga Prefecture’s feature
Shiga Prefecture is facing various problems including the issue of water quality in Lake Biwa,
and increasing CO2 emissions resulting from population growth and the manufacturing industry.
Action is, therefore, essential, and Shiga’s scenario illustrates how such environmental trends can beceased and how the vision of a sustainable society may be realised by 2030.

Environmental targets for the year 2030
The reduction of GHG emissions by half, recovery of water quality in Lake Biwa; recovery of the areaof reed communities; doubling of the beautiful lake areas; and reduction of landfill waste by 75%.
To achieve these targets, the scenario incorporates: the establishment of a low-carbon society;revival of the Lake Biwa environment; and the establishment of a recycling system.
In order to meet the targets, it is necessary to find a path to maintain healthy activities under strict
environmental restrictions based on mutual support between citizens, businesses and local
government. There are numerous efforts and actions laid out which need to be taken by the players.
Policies to promote the efforts and actions include voluntary environmental action plans,
regulations on environmental impact, subsidy schemes for advanced efforts, enlightenment andeducation and regulations on land use and construction. A tri-parties beneficial policy model is
proposed where the three parties share not only environmental benefits but also economic gains,hence “sustainable tax systems” and “sustainable finance” will play pivotal roles in the mechanism.

Socioeconomic assumption
Dominant social trends leading up to 2030 have been identified. These take into account factors
such as the population, number of households, macro economy, and employment rate.

Estimation systems
Measures have been identified within five categories of energy consuming sectors:
households, business operations, industry, passenger transport, and freight transport. Each activity
level has then been quantitatively represented and the emission reduction contribution by eachmeasure has been calculated.

Required policy
In terms of low carbon societies, the research outcome shows that there is a technological potential
to halve CO2 emissions by 2030. Whether it comes true or not is heavily dependent on a political will
to formulate a required policy package.

44

The T
embe
enviroIn ordchang
will bThese
resouprojecopera
drivento estcitywi(GreatBiwa,
dustry.
an bee area75%.
ociety;strictlocal
ayers.
plans,t and
del isgains,
anism.

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 45

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies

The Tyndall Cities Programme

Sebastian Carney
Manchester University
UK
The Tyndall Cities Programme is producing a UIAF (Urban Integrated Assessment Facility), whichembeds climate impact assessment and emissions accounting models within the social,environmental and technological context of scenarios of change at the global and national scales.
In order to achieve this, the UIAF will include an economic model to estimate the impacts of globalchange on the economy of the urban region over the 21st Century. These econometric projections
will be used to drive spatially explicit simulations of land use change and population location.
These results will then be used as inputs into the impacts models to estimate the impact on water
resources and generate maps of flood and heat impacts. The same land use and population
projections will be considered alongside other possible technological changes (e.g. increases inoperating efficiency) as well as changes to industrial and domestic consumption – which may be
driven by climatic changes (e.g. increasing temperatures driving the use of air conditioning units) –to establish their implications for energy use and emissions and identify mechanisms for reducing
citywide GHG emissions. There is extensive involvement with key stakeholders in the study region(Great London) in the design and focus of this work, including the Greater London Authority (GLA).

actorsctors:
ctivityeachtentialal will45

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 46

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies

London•Andy Deacon
Climate, Energy and Air Quality Strategy Manager
Greater London Authority
In February 2007, the Mayor announced London’s first comprehensive plan to cut carbon emissions
across the city.
The Mayor launched four programmes which will form the basis of the Plan:• A Green Homes Programme• A Green Organisations Programme• A Green Energy Programme• A Green Transport Programme
He announced that £78 million will be reprioritised over three years within existing Greater London
Authority finances this year to launch these programmes.
The Action Plan also shows that, without action, London’s carbon emissions will grow from44 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes by 2025.
• Green Homes Programme – Homes are responsible for 38 per cent of emissions. The plan setsout how annual domestic carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by 7.7 million tonnes by2025. By making homes more energy efficient, the average London household could save £300
per year off their fuel bills, as well as cutting emissions. The Mayor announced that he will beoffering cut-price loft and cavity wall insulation, available across the whole of London to every
home that can benefit from it. The offer will be totally free for people on benefits and we will
particularly look to ensure that older Londoners can take advantage.
• Green Organisations Programme – London’s employers, both commercial and public sector,
are responsible for 33 per cent of the capital’s emissions. If all of London’s employers
introduced simple changes like turning off lights and IT equipment at night, emissions would
be cut by over three million tonnes a year. Modest improvements to the energy efficiency of
London’s commercial and public buildings would cut emissions by a further two million tonnes.
If all of the actions in this Plan were implemented they would save employers up to 20 per centon their energy bills.
• Green Energy Programme – decentralised energy. It will not be possible for London to achieve
its carbon reduction targets without a fundamental change in how energy is generated andsupplied. The Action Plan sets a target to move a quarter of London’s energy supply off the
National Grid and on to more efficient, local energy systems by 2025.

46

CaThis mLondo
by 20
currenreduc
additinew t
pricinDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 47

Case Studies of Low-Carbon Societies• Green Transport Programme – Transport is responsible for 22 per cent of London’s emissions.
The plan sets out how annual transport emissions can be cut by 4.3 million tonnes.
CO2 emissions from road transport would fall by as much as 30 per cent if people simply
bought the most fuel-efficient version of the car they want.

ssionsThis means stabilising London’s emissions in 2025 at 60 per cent below 1990 level. Without action,
London’s annual carbon emissions would instead grow from 44 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes
by 2025. This means that by 2025 London must produce 33 million tonnes less of CO2 than its
current levels – an annual emissions reduction of four per cent a year. 20 million tonnes of thisreduction can be achieved through the actions set out in this Plan. A further 13 million tons requires
additional national and international action. The Action Plan sets out that the problem is not thatnew technologies are required but that the government needs to introduce comprehensive carbon
pricing to encourage the faster take-up of existing energy efficiency measures.

ondon
from

n setsnes by£300
will beevery
we willector,
loyerswould
ncy ofonnes.
r centchieved and
ff the47

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 48

3. Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Transport

De

E) Tr

A com
innov
Dr. Yuichi Moriguchi
Director
Research Centre for Material Cycles and Waste Management
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)JapanA) Facts and trends in Japanese transport
Transport contributes about a quarter of Japan’s CO2 emissions; of this 90% is from motor vehicles.
Underlying drivers such as increasing passenger car size and growing traffic volumes (both passenger
cars and freight) tend to push emissions higher.

B) Overview of transport sub-project in Low-Carbon Societies 2050
Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) scenarios are developed which achieve CO2 reduction
targets in 2020 and 2050 by the combination of a technological innovation and a demand change.
The 2020 EST scenario is forecasted depending on technological innovation, for there seems to be
little feasibility of the demand change in the near future. The lead-time for changes in both the
producing capacity and the purchase behavior is taken into consideration. The 2050 EST scenario isdeveloped with back-casting approach. The gap between the emission of business-as-usual case and
EST target is the amount of reduction required by demand management.
Scenarios were produced to see the effect on CO2 emissions. Even the extreme scenario of high,rapid penetration of hybrid vehicles does not sufficiently reduce CO2 emissions – implying thatdemand management is also needed on top of technological innovation.
Using a Kaya-type identity showing the combination of countermeasures (fuel economy, low-carbon
energy, load factor; modal shift, accessibility; demand management) we can show that by improving
each driver by 20% we can reduce emissions by 70%.

C) Assessment of transport technology

Therefor hi(especand p

Information of automotive technical information is put into a database and the well-to-wheel CO2
emissions can be assessed. There are significant differences depending on the choice of fuel supply
power-train – for example although CO2 emissions from fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) are less thanhybrid vehicle (HV), FCEV has problems to be solved such as fuel cell durability, FCEV cost and theway to produce and supply hydrogen. Therefore, widespread use of HV’s is thought to be one of thefeasible and effective measures in 2020.

There
an in
count
fuel-eshouldD) Spatial, demographic, and behavioural aspects
Current demographics and future population share are important factors as there is adifference between rural and urban areas in modes of transport. High population density isneeded for competitive public transport and if the population density is not large enoughthere may be no benefit on life-cycle CO2 comparing public transport with private vehicles (including
required infrastructure).
In competitive areas, then, privatisation is successful, less so in rural areas. If load factor is small thenpublic transport is not efficient in CO2 emissions (compared to high efficiency vehicles).
48

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 49

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon SocietyE) Transport vision towards 2050
A combination of various countermeasures are needed up to 2050, including technologicalinnovation and changes in mobility.

hicles.
enger

uction
ange.
to be
h the
ario is
e and

high,
g thatarbon
rovingel CO2upply
s thand theof theThere are many uncertainties looking to 2050, including demographics of an ageing society; demandfor high speed travel; preferences on vehicle-size; globalisation vs. regionalism; price of fossil fuels(especially oil); the way to produce and supply hydrogen; and the investment balance between roadand public transport.
There are opportunities for the transport sector to contribute to the low-carbon society. For 2020
an increase in the penetration of hybrid electric vehicles and for 2050 a combination ofcountermeasures. Some examples of best practice might be increasing numbers of hybrid andfuel-efficient vehicles on the market and increasing support for public transport. Transport policy
should have linkages with other policy goals such as accessibility for transportation in the rural areas.

is asity is
nough
uding

l then49

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 50

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

De

Buildings

Take-bThis ssaturaProfessor Tadj Oreszczyn

In coBartlett School ofGraduate Studies

Bartlett School ofGraduate Studies

We ha
get acthem.

University College

University College

Professor Robert Lowe

LondonBuildings account for up to half of all carbon emissions in Annex I countries, and are an expanding
sector, as half of the global population are now urbanised. Buildings are widely seen as a key
short-to-medium term opportunity to save energy and carbon.
The good news is that technologies exist to deliver factor ≈10 buildings with very high quality
environments. These technologies have been deployed effectively in a small number of buildings
worldwide and can be applied both to new and existing buildings.
The bad news is that, unless employed with the greatest care, these technologies do not work well.
The design performance is only achieved when all systems in the building work right.
A well-performing building is a complex low-entropy system and almost all unintended interventions
in low-entropy systems degrade their performance.
The largest field trial of low-energy housing in the UK, the Stamford Brook development, proved tohave thermal envelope defects. A convective bypass associated with the party wall cavity appears to
exceed all other heat loss mechanisms and means that terraced and semi detached houses
performed worse than equivalent detached houses. This problem is solvable, but until it wasinvestigated in detail, awareness of the problem was limited to a handful of researchers. In a similarvein, infra-red images of external walls demonstrate that the design U value (around 0.2 W/m2K) was
exceeded over much of the external area. This problem appears rather more difficult to solve without
significant changes to existing construction methods.
Carbon dioxide emissions from buildings will not reduce without widespread and continuous
measurement and analysis of building performance, much better feedback throughout thedesign-construction-operation chain and performance feedback for policy makers. Feedback is
powerful – it is possible to see progressive reduction in primary energy use in a building that has highlevels of feedback – so energy consumption can be decreased.
There is a large global demand for high quality buildings and a latent demand for comfort, spaceand services (I.T. etc.). Better performance, more wealth and falling energy price enables
the realisation of this demand. It has been shown that although there has been a decrease indwelling heat loss, energy consumption has increased. From 1970 to 2001, there was a 4-fold
reduction in carbon intensity of space heating, which was largely offset by a 5-fold increase inaffordability of comfort.
The increase in affordability is reflected in trends in UK conservatory use 1991 to 2004.
Similarly, limited studies of better insulated houses in Japan show that they have higher energy use
than conventional houses. A decades-long trend to increased affordability of domestic air
conditioning in Japan, which mirrors the increase in affordability of space heating in the UK, has led
to large increases in the ownership and use of domestic room air conditioners in Japan.
50•

London••••DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 51

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Take-back probably declines with increased levels of insulation and increased internal temperatures.
This suggests that energy efficiency reduces asymptotic emissions but speeds the process of
saturation and large interventions are, therefore, needed to achieve absolute reductions in demand.

zczyn

In conclusion

ool oftudiesWe have been too successful at selling buildings to policy makers as a quick, easy win. We need toget across the idea of slow, difficult, but necessary, wins and we need concrete action to achieve
them. For this action to take place it is necessary to:ollege

ondon

nding
a key

qualityldingsk well.
right.
ntionsved toars toouses
t was
imilarK) wasthout• build human capital. Construction and operation of buildings are deeply embedded activities.
Skills and knowledge throughout the workforce are essential to their success, even more so inperiods of rapid change;• build knowledge. Evidence is required for designers, builders, owners and operators, as well as
for policy makers;• build institutions and systems. Building control systems, systems for measuring andreporting performance, building, monitoring and reporting exemplars as well as building
educational systems;• build the supply chain. Construction is a collective activity and to make it possible to build thebest buildings, other people need to be able to supply the best components and systems. Stateof the art technology has to be easily and universally available;• build the context. Building energy efficiency will only deliver carbon reductions if: technologicalimprovements go hand in hand with fiscal measures to prevent most of the benefit being taken
as comfort and to redirect the effort being put now into developing the goods and systems
and services that will support the consumption patterns of the mid 21st century.

nuous
t the
ack iss highspacenablesase in4-foldase in2004.
gy useic airas led51

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 52

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Behavioural Change

De

How

Gover
lifesty•
Professor Tim Jackson•

RESOLVE•

University of Surrey•

UK

Embedded Carbon and Lifestyle
In all lifestyles exists an unavoidable carbon footprint. From the food we eat to the homes we live
in, the carbon from actions we undertake plays a role in global climate change. Addressing theembedded carbon in our lifestyles, alongside conventional emissions, could assist in reducing global
GHG emissions significantly. This is dependent upon realising the potential for societal change in theuse and development of cleaner products and services.
Behavioural change does imply some level of burden upon individuals to recognise and then act
upon their individual carbon footprint. Creating the conditions in which individuals can make thetransition to a low-carbon lifestyle is vital.
In order to stimulate behavioural change, a more comprehensive suite of options for the consumer
is required. By limiting the choices people have for cleaner consumption, we are creating barriers tomore sustainable ways of living. Equally, there is a limit to which consumers are willing to make anytransition in the absence of programmes and measures that deliver positive incentives.

Technology Innovation and Behaviour Change
The interaction between technology innovation and consumer demand plays an important role increating the conditions that instigate behavioural change. Technology innovation is largely
dependent on the demand for new goods and services from consumers, whereas behaviouralchange requires technology innovation. Both technology innovation and behavioural change requirea degree of institutional change. Encouraging the development of greener products and services is
an important step in delivering sustainable options to consumers.
Equally important is supporting consumers to make the transition to a low-carbon lifestyle.
Education is a key means to enabling individuals to take advantage of emerging low-carbon products
and services. Energy efficiency and performance labelling can be a powerful tool in raising theawareness in consumers on the impact of their individual carbon footprint and of the co-benefits
that exist in a low-carbon lifestyle.

52

Policygreen
to stimoptionA gre
optionwhilstinformmedia

we liveg theglobalin theen actke the

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 53

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

How can we Instigate Behaviour Change to Low-Carbon Lifestyles?
Governments have a key role in developing the frameworks and policies under which low-carbon
lifestyles are promoted. Polices should enable the transition to a low-carbon lifestyle by:• removing existing barriers that inhibit behavioural change to sustainable lifestyles;• providing viable alternatives to existing lifestyle choices;• providing information to consumers on the products and services they use; and• delivering the necessary facilities and institutions
Policy-making should also take into account the need to provide business with the certainty in whichgreen markets can be encouraged. Creating a long-term vision of future green markets can do muchto stimulate the development of cleaner products and services and, thereby, broaden the range ofoptions available to consumers.
A greater focus on the engagement of communities in creating a wider range of sustainable living
options is also required. Community action can do much to instigate local societal change,whilst providing models which can form the basis for action in other locations. Dissemination of
information on low-carbon options for sustainable living should also be supported, especially in the
media and community networks.

sumer
ers toke anyole inargelyiouralequireices isestyle.
oductsg thenefits53

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 54

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Involving sectors and frontrunners in the transition to a low-carbon economy

Frans Vollenbroek

The fi
numb
Anoth
amon
perce
confidInterdepartmental Programme Energy Transition (IPE)For mDutch Ministry for the Environment
The Netherlands
Transition to a low-carbon economy requires radical innovations. This includes development ofleapfrog technologies, institutional changes and substantial investments in new infrastructures.
Our experience is that a top-down approach does not work in this process, since incumbents tend
to resist. Therefore, the government of the Netherlands developed an alternative way of working
with stakeholders, which is called the transition approach.
The transition approach is characterised by a deliberate strive to reach a certain goal, in our case:a low-carbon economy.

The first stepin the approach is to invite stakeholders – businesses, NGO’s and academia – to develop long-term
perspectives. These may be different for each stakeholder since they have different interests:
businesses may see competitive edges; NGO’s may recognise that the goals fit into their mission; andacademia may look forward to the fact that their knowledge may be used.

The second stepis to explore the paths which may be used – or could be paved – to get closer to the goal. In practicethis has been done through a number of Platforms, i.e. 1) Green Raw Materials, 2) Sustainable
Mobility, 3) Chain Efficiency, 4) New Gas and Clean Fossil Fuels, 5) Sustainable Electricity and6) Built Environment. These Platforms consist of all stakeholders mentioned above and are
established by the government. In order to steer the process, an inter-ministerial group was set up
consisting of six Ministries. The results of the work of the Platforms are portfolios of transition paths.
These are described in the transition action plan (May 2005). In the future, new paths may be added
and others may disappear, depending on the results and what we have learned.
The role of the government is to support the transition paths by funding R&D and to deploy
instruments that create incentives for innovation. That may be (temporary) subsidies, co-financing ofpilots, tax credit, etc. But it is not just about money: the transition approach is also about mutual
trust, creating room for experiments, co-operation between different academic disciplines andbusinesses. This makes the transition approach a bottom-up process, demand driven and flexible.
Last but not least, it is about rewarding frontrunners. Frontrunners are often very motivated to
explore new solutions and bring these to the market. By doing so, they challenge the incumbents toparticipate in the process. However, frontrunners are often confronted with barriers: regulatory,financial, lack of network, etc. Therefore, a frontrunners desk has been established. This desk serves
as a one-stop shop where frontrunners can ask for help.

54

DeDEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 55

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Societyomy

The first results are promising: the transition approach has created a lot of dynamics and a great
number of projects have been started, one example being the climate neutral greenhouse.
Another result is the support from the sectors to the ambitious goals of the new government,
among which 30% CO2 reduction and 20% renewable energy in 2020. This means that theperception that the transition to a low-carbon economy is a threat to their business is replaced byconfidence in the power of innovation.
For more information, see: http://www.senternovem.nl/EnergyTransition/ent oftures.
s tendorkingcase:-termerests:n; andactice
nable
y and
d are
set uppaths.
added

deploying ofmutuals andexible.
ed to
nts toatory,
serves55

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 56

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Catalysing a shift in the development pattern: a programmatic approach

Jose Alberto Garibaldi
Energeia and Department for Environment
Food and Rural Affairs
UKThe world will be spending around 20 trillion US$ between 2005 and 2030 on energy infrastructure, with
developing countries making up barely more than half of this spending; and China alone constituting
almost a third from developing countries. Over the past decades, public and private energy technology
R&D investment has been decreasing, due to energy sector characteristics, poor clear long term signals,
and an inappropriate regulatory environment. Carbon pricing and international technology cooperation
will both be needed if such a change is to include developing countries (DCs). However, there will alsoneed to be a shift in how the DC’s approach the low-carbon technology discussion, if they are to stop
losing opportunities.
Currently, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been a key incentive for the shift in developing
countries’ interest towards low carbon development. In its more conventional form, it is unlikely, however,it will reach the scale and scope needed to make a global investment difference, considering the portfolioof technologies required. Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) returns provide responses tailored to CDM
characteristics and country implementation capacities, while high investment and transaction costs
preclude development of other substantive technology niches. Thus, only projects with high GHG content(including methane and waste) and/or rather short term payoffs (including tried and tested technologies
rather than pre-commercial ones) are likely to enter the market with CER support. As a consequence,climate friendly technologies enter in the margins, rather than as mainstream; policy and CDM constraints
force dual development patterns, where renewable and cleaner technologies are introduced side by sidewith old inefficient plants,while existing instruments fail to build upon local co-benefits.
Long term policy challenges show the limits of such an approach. In Latin America for instance, glacial
shifts will affect the Andean countries current generation reliance on hydropower, forcing them to expand
their planning horizon beyond their current ten years, or risk drastic generation losses in a very short time.
The southern cone will need to examine if it will expand with wind in the southern Andean passes or withunreliable Bolivian gas; or the large cities from Mexico and Sao Paulo to Lima and Bogotá, decide whether
they invest in low carbon technologies and planning or continue a, so far, unsustainable expansion.
Emerging economies might find they benefit from the current common but differentiated responsibilities
principle if they shift emphasis from marginal instruments to expanded internal political and policy
leadership. Such an approach can create conditions for expanded use of large scale programme-based
approaches to the CDM and increased carbon market revenue while addressing domestic energy longterm challenges. This will require new market players adapting to changing conditions: from innovativeinternational policy loans by IFIs, blended with flexible domestic instruments and finance (including
secondary guarantees, programme-based carbon revenue collateral, venture capital and/or structured
carbon finance); to the development of low carbon methodologies as common pool regional resources
and sub-national and city based expand to address currently untapped opportunity. Regional financial
and policy advisory organisations will be crucial to catalyse change. Last, but not least, these can respondto a common interest from developing and developed countries in sustaining the carbon markets, andcreate conditions for DC’s contributions to the atmosphere from the expanded scope of their gains.
56

De

Deliv

There
impor
behav
as th
invest

The trpart oachiev
Transpchang
as fue

The b
GHG
long-thowe
to incBehav
embe
betterpolicie
The inchang

To hefrontrbotto
long-tgoal.
rewar

It is im
and p
remai
As th
flexiblin plathe ine, withtutingnologygnals,
rationll alsoo stopoping
wever,
rtfolioCDM
costs
ontentologiesuence,
traintsby sideglacialxpand
t time.
r withhether.

bilities
policybased
y longvativeuding
cturedourcesancialsponds, andns.

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 57

Delivering the Elements of a Low-Carbon Society

Delivering the elements of a Low-Carbon Society - Summary
There are several elements important to delivering a low-carbon society – including engaging
important sectors such as transport and the built environment, and understanding how humanbehaviour change can contribute. It is also important to learn from existing successful examples, suchas the transition approach from the Netherlands, and also to understand how finance andinvestment can help to shift development pathways.
The transport sector contributes a large share of greenhouse gases; motor vehicles are a significant
part of this sector, particularly in urban areas. The transport sector needs to be transformed toachieve a low-carbon society, an example of work in this area is Japan’s Environmentally Sustainable
Transport (EST) scenarios which involve a combination of technological innovation and demandchange with targets for 2020 and 2050. Local circumstances are important and include factors suchas fuel choices, demographics and the balance between public and private transport.
The built environment is another sector with a significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.
GHG mitigation measures in this sector should be seen as important in both the short- andlong-term. Technology already exists which can considerably increase the efficiency of buildings,
however it needs to be employed correctly; and as the demand for comfort can counteract efforts
to increase building efficiency, measures such as controls and fiscal incentives may also be needed.
Behavioural change is necessary to achieve low-carbon societies. To address and decrease the carbon
embedded in our lifestyles implies action from individuals; conditions need to be created to offer
better choices to individuals. While Governments will play a key role in developing frameworks andpolicies, focusing on businesses and communities will also be crucial to realise behavioural change.
The interaction between technological innovation and behavioural change implies that institutionalchange is required.
To help achieve the transition to a low-carbon society lessons should be learned from existing
frontrunners. The transition approach used in the Netherlands is an example of this, comprising of abottom-up approach engaging stakeholders (businesses, NGOs and academia) to develop
long-term perspectives. The second step explores the paths which may be used to get closer to thegoal. The role of the government is to support the transition paths in a number of ways, including
rewarding the frontrunners.
It is important that countries recognise the co-benefits that exist in implementing national policies
and programmes. Development can deliver necessary global GHG emissions reductions whilst
remaining cost effective and can aid the need to secure access to energy as a development priority.
As the current principle of the UNFCCC of common, but differentiated, responsibilities plus theflexible mechanisms in practise rewards pro-active action, it will pay for developing countries to put
in place wide ranging low-carbon and climate resilient policies and measures, to take advantage ofthe increase carbon revenue and resilience that this might bring.

57

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 58

4. Outcome of Breakout Sessions – Prioritising Policy Measures

Breakout Group Session on Policy Measures for Achieving
Low-Carbon Societies

5.

The

During the breakout sessions, participants were asked to brainstorm for policy measures andactions that could help achieve a low-carbon society. The measures were then sorted according tosix different sectors: Built Environment; Transport; Agriculture and Forestry; Lifestyle; Services andRetail; and Energy (Power Generation). Participants were then split into syndicate groups, each
representing one of the six sectors.
The ideas that had been generated from the brainstorm were clustered into themes, then eachtheme was restated as a hypothesis or Policy Proposal. The group then prioritised the Policy Proposals
based on the criteria of feasibility and impact.
Each syndicate group then split into four teams of 2-3 people to explore the rationale for the
Policy Proposal in detail and develop lines of argument. The teams were asked to consider thefollowing questions:
1. Why is this important to achieve a low-carbon society?
2. Why will this not just happen naturally?
3. Why should government intervene?
4. What could, or should, government do to help?
5. What evidence exists, or is needed, to support this argument?
The discussions of each proposal were then summarised into posters which were displayed andassessed by other participants, with one of the poster authors available to answer questions.
Comments were captured on the posters and participants were then asked to vote for which policy
proposals they thought were most likely to make a feasible and significant impact.
From this exercise, participants identified six areas of policy that should be viewed as priority areas
for development in order to move towards low-carbon societies:• Develop frameworks that create financial incentives for enhancing the deployment of Carbon
Capture and Storage, in particular international regulatory mechanisms to enable
demonstration projects such as cap and trade systems and a global carbon market.
• A comprehensive programmatic approach to global forestry and soil carbon stocks, taking into
account a long-term carbon price to provide incentives for sustainable land use management.
• Establish a fiscal framework that discourages low sustainability developments and helps toprevent the degradation of rural land.
• An approach to transport policies that promote more sustainable mobility through carbon
pricing in the transport sector in all areas such as; infrastructure, personal vehicle use andpublic transport.
• Create long-term regulatory measures that provide incentives for the design, construction anduse of more energy efficient homes whilst addressing the need for enhanced RD&D in thebuilt environment.
• Develop schemes, such as carbon labelling, which raise people’s awareness of the impacts that
their consumption choices have on their carbon footprint. Personal carbon allowances could
play a role in raising awareness and promoting action, but the operation of any scheme needs
to be assessed carefully.

58

The t
13 to
on cli
major

• W

• W

The idprofesgener
strugghere
Prolife
Stake
and N

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

es

21/11/07

14:22

Page 59

5. The Future of the Japan-UK Collaboration on
Low-Carbon Societies
The Future of the Japan-UK Collaboration on Low-Carbon Societies

s and
ng to
s and
each

Naoya Tsukamoto
naoya_tsukamoto@env.go.jp
Director of Research and Information on Global Environment

each
posalsor theer theMinistry of the EnvironmentJapan
The third Japan-UK workshop “Roadmap to Low-carbon World” will be held in Tokyo from13 to 15 February, 2008. The main stream that flows behind the joint research project is the dialogue
on climate change started from Gleneagles G8 Summit, through Heiligendam, and to Tokyo. As amajor scientific forum, the third WS is expected to answer two questions.
• Where 50% reduction potentials exist?
• What is the relation with Sustainable Development?

d andtions.
policyThe idea of low-carbon societies are now very popular among people who, no matter what his/her
profession or personal interests are, look into the opportunity and quality of life of the future
generations. On the contrary, as many nations belonging to Annex I group under UNFCCC are
struggling to achieve around 5% GHG reduction, the majority of the citizens might not believe that
here exists serious scientists who are working hard on more than 50% reduction by 2050.
Proliferation of the idea of low-carbon societies in the society has just started but needs more efforts.
Stakeholders of the society, such as parliament members, business persons at each sector, citizens
and NGOs, have started to ask practical questions on low-carbon societies.

areas

arbon
nable

g intoment.

lps to

arbon
e and

n and
n the

s thatcould
needs

Strategic Objectiveof the third workshop
1. Demonstrate feasibility of LCSs
through establishing methodologies,
creating visions, and roadmaps.
2. Raising awareness and increase
actual actions toward LCSs among
stakeholders=actors.
3. Continue WSs for science and policy.

59

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 60

The Future of the Japan-UK Collaboration on
Low-Carbon Societies
So, the strategic objectives of the third WS are set as indicated in the above slide.
The third workshop is expected to demonstrate the various existing country visions to low-carbon
societies by a compilation of country low-carbon society scenarios; help dialogue among wider
stakeholders; share experience of real changes that have happened; and to demonstrate bestpractices. It is also expected to discuss sustainable low-carbon development. The third workshop will
focus both scientific development of low-carbon society study, i.e. methodologies for creating
visions, roadmaps, and concrete actions by stakeholders and will stimulate communication among
stakeholders.

History and Momentum
WS1: June 2006, Tokyo• Definition, necessity, and feasibility of LCS• Sustainable Development and LCS

WS2: June 2007, London• Policy and measures to achieve LCSs
• Sectors, particularly private sector and cities• Sustainable low carbon development

WS3: 13-15 February, 2008, Tokyo60

arbonwider
e bestop willeatingmong

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 61

Appendices61

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 62

Appendix i

PRESS RELEASE on 13th June 2007

Note

UK and Japan – working towards a low-carbon society

1. Th
An ex

Environment Minister Ian Pearson today highlighted the importance of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions at the start of a three day workshop on moving to a low-carbon society.

http://

The workshop, Achieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society, is a collaboration between the
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and The Ministry of Environment Japan(MoEJ) to help establish the practical steps necessary to make low-carbon societies a reality.
It has three main objectives:• To demonstrate and raise awareness of the benefits of moving to a low-carbon society throughsustainable development;• To develop recommendations on how to close the gap between the business-as-usual andlow-carbon society scenarios;• To develop the framework for a map of low-carbon society activities.
Ian Pearson said:“To achieve real global change, developed economies need to show leadership at home
– particularly in supporting the move to a low-carbon society.
“Japan is one of our key partners in paving the way towards a low-carbon society andour two Prime Ministers remain at the forefront of efforts to secure international
agreement on a future framework. This close partnership is reflected at every level and
UK-Japan collaboration on this vital issue is the strongest it has ever been.
“The UK-Japan collaboration on low-carbon societies shows what we are able to achieve
together and will provide the opportunity to take a decisive step forward in the battle
to combat climate change.”
Japanese Ambassador to the UK, Yoshiji Nogami said:“Tackling climate change is at the top of the agenda between Japan and the UK. This
January, Prime Minister Abe and Prime Minister Blair issued the Japan-UK joint statement.
In this statement, we identified climate change as one of four key issues for us to work
on together. We also agreed to work together on joint research on science andtechnology for a low carbon Society as well. We see 2008 is very crucial from theviewpoint of formulating the post 2012 framework, and in that context, G8 summit inJapan next year is very challenging. I welcome the significant inputs and contribution
from this joint project to that process in order to tackle climate change together.”
Mr Pearson is speaking at the event along with Mr Nogami. Around 35 business leaders,
15 government officials, 30 leading academic experts and 10 representatives of internationalorganisations are attending the conference which aims to build on the foundations set by the firstworkshop in Tokyo last year.
The results from the workshop will be used to inform discussion in fora such as the G8 Dialogue
Ministerial meeting and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Case studies of low-carbon cities including Dontang Eco-city (China) and Sseesamirembe Eco-city(Uganda) will be presented at the workshop. These cities mark the forefront of sustainable
development and are important in ongoing research concerning low-carbon societies.
62

Wa

2. Achdemosocietraise asustaie gas

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 63

Waste and Resource Evidence Strategy 2007-2011

Notes to editors
1. The first Japan-UK Low-Carbon Society conference was held 14-16 June 2006 in Tokyo.
An executive summary from this workshop can be accessed at:
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/pdf/low-carbon-societies.pdf

n the
Japan

2. Achieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society comprises a one-day symposium and discussion todemonstrate and raise awareness of the necessity, feasibility and benefits of moving to a low-carbon
society through sustainable development. This precedes a two-day workshop to demonstrate andraise awareness of the necessity, feasibility and benefits of moving to a low-carbon society throughsustainable development.

roughEnd...

al andPublic enquiries: 08459 335577
News releases available on our website:www.defra.gov.uk
Defra’s aim is sustainable development

aders,
tionale first

logue
CCC).

co-citynable
63

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 64

Appendix ii

64

Ap

List of Invited Participants

KraineAcquatella, Jean JoseUN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Krant

Aghazadeh, Khoei Javad

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iran

Lagun

Alonso, Ana

Shell International

Lal, M

Ambrose, Beth

The Climate Group

Larmo

Anderson, Dennis

Imperial College

Lewis

Axelsson, Hakan

Vattenfall AB

Lowe,

Bolitho, Andrew

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Mabe

Bosteels, Tatiana

London Climate Change Agency

MacLe

Botting, Duncan

ABB

Marqu

Bradley, Robert

World Resources Institute

Matsu

Bradley, Mark

Oxygen Marketing Ltd

MckeBrutinel, Marina

E3G Third Generation Environmentalism

Metz,

Carney, Sebastian

Tyndall Centre (Manchester University)

Mong

Chung, Rae Kwon

UN Economic and Social Commission in Asia and the Pacific

Morig

Cornelius, Stephen

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

MorriCowan, Anitra

Australian High Commission

Motte

Dadhich, Pradeep Kumar

Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI), India

Mukh

Deacon, Andy

Greater London Authority

Nagat

Dhakal, Shobhakar

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

Nakur

Drummond, Hazel

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Narbe

Dubeux, Carolina

Centro Clima/COPPE/UFRJ (Brazil)

NishioDummer, James

Solar Green Tourism

NishioEdmonds, Jae

Joint Global Change Research Institute, USA

Evans, James Warren

The World Bank

Nunu
Eyen

Feierstein, Mitchell

Cheyne Capital Management (UK)

Oresz

Foxon, Tim

University of Cambridge, UK

PfeifeFujino, Junichi

National Institue for Environmental Studies, JapanRi, KaGaches, Joanna

Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Rose,

Garibaldi, Jose

Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Russ,

Grubb, Michael

Imperial College/Carbon Trust

Saha,

Halsnaes, Kirsten

UNEP Risoe Centre

Saito,

Jackson, Tim

University of Surrey, UK

Sakai,

Jiang, Kejun

Energy Research Institute, Canada

Sakam

Jones, Aled

University of Cambridge, UK

Sakur

Jones, Hugh

Carbon Trust, UK

Sato,

Kainuma, Mikiko

National Institue for Environmental Studies, Japan

Sato,

Klaassen, Ger

DG ENV, European Commission

SchulzKojima, Toshiro

Ministry of the Environment Japan

Senio

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 65

Appendix ii

Kraines, Steven

University of Tokyo, Japan

Krantz, Randall

World Economic Forum

Laguna, Israel

National Institute of Ecology of Mexico

Lal, Murari

CESDAC, India

Larmouth, Sarah

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,UK

Lewis, Memoria

ML Consultants, UK

Lowe, Robert

University College London, UK

Mabey, Nick

E3G, Third Generation Environmentalism, UK

MacLeod, Jason

IBM

Marquard, Andrew

University of Cape Town, South Africa

Matsuoka, Yuzuru

Kyoto University, Japan

Mckenzie Hedger, Merylyn

European Environment Agency

Metz, Bert

IPCC Working Group III

Mongan, Edwin

BHP Billiton

Moriguchi, Yuichi

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

Morrison, Tanya

Shell International

Mottershead, Chris

British Petroleum

Mukherjee, Sinjini

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Nagata, Yutaka

CRIEPI, Japan

Nakura, Yoshio

Ministry of the Environment of Japan

Narberhaus, Michael

WWF-UK

Nishio, Masahiro

National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan

Nishioka, Shuzo

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

Nunumisa, Beenunula
EyenunulaSseesamireembe Eco-City, Uganda

Oreszczyn, Tadj

University College London, UK

Pfeifer, StephanieInstitutional Investors Group on Climate Change

Ri, Karin

Hermes Pensions Management

Rose, Steven

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Russ, Peter

Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Saha, Tonima

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Saito, Masahiko

Embassy of Japan, UK

Sakai, Daisuke

Embassy of Japan, UK

Sakamoto, Toshi

Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), UK

Sakurai, Yasuyoshi

Royal Institute of International Affairs, UK

Sato, Misato

University of Cambridge, UK

Sato, Akiko

Climate Strategies, Imperial College

Schulz, Niels

Imperial College, UK

Senior, Bill

British Petroleum65

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 66

Appendix ii

ApShimada, Koji

Ritsumeikan University, Japan

Achi

Shrestha, Ram

Asian Institute of Technology

Shukla, Priyadarshi

Indian Institute of Management, India

Simpson, Paul

Carbon Disclosure Project

Skea, Jim

UK Energy Research Centre

Slater, Tom

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Key F

Smith, Graham

Toyota Motor Europe NV/SA

Smith, Rosie

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

The k
were:

Stephenson, Michael

IBM

Strachan, Neil

Policy Studies Institute, UK

Takaoka, Masato

Embassy of Japan, UK

Tang, Kenny

Oxbridge Climate Capital

Taylor, Gary

Climate Change & Business Centre, New Zealand

Tonooka, Yutaka

Imperial College Centre for Environmental Policy, UK

Totoki, KenjiEmbassy of Japan, UK

Tsukahara, Sachiko

Ministry of the Environment of Japan

Tsukamoto, Naoya

Ministry of the Environment of Japan

Verhagen, Patrick

Holcim Group Support Ltd

Vollenbroek, Frans

Ministry of Environment, Netherlands

Warrilow, David

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Watson, Jeremy

Arup

Watson, Jim

University of Sussex and Tyndall Centre, UK

Weiss, Martin

Federal Environmental Agency, Germany

Wheatley, Megan

UK Business Council for Sustainable Energy

Whitney, Graham

IBM

Wilhite, Harold

University of Oslo, Norway

Sym

Exec

•

•

•

•

• W

•

•

•

66

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 67

Appendix iii

Achieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society
Symposium and Workshop, London 13-15 June 2007.
Executive Summary
Key Findings
The key findings from the second workshop of the Japan-UK Low-Carbon Society Collaboration
were:• Climate change represents a significant threat to humanity and the global environment. Urgent
action is needed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions significantly (by at least 50 per
cent by 2050) and adapt to unavoidable impacts of climate change.
• A range of country studies has already demonstrated that it is both technically andeconomically feasible to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – as much as
60-80 per cent in developed countries. The costs of transitioning to low-carbon societies are
far less than costs associated with inaction.
• The scale of the problem is such that a wide range of stakeholders – from government;
business; and civil society, both as individuals and organisations – need to be engaged infinding solutions. Creating visions of low-carbon societies can help to educate and motivate
people and organisations• International action will require bold and innovative measures. The workshop identified theneed to:Develop long-term policy signals for business through strengthening carbon pricing e.g.
through taxation and enhanced international trading;
Enhance international RD&D in integrative and transformational technologies; andMobilise investment resources for low-carbon development in developing countries.
• Well designed low-carbon strategies are an important aspect of sustainable development thatcan deliver significant co-benefits in terms of the local environment, economic growth, accessto energy and energy security.
• Changes in human behaviour and lifestyle are essential to achieving low-carbon societies.
This requires policies and frameworks to provide consumers with the opportunity to makelow-carbon, and to remove carbon-intensive, choices.
• Existing technologies and those close to commercialisation can make a major contribution tocarbon emission reductions. Emerging technologies must also contribute significantly in themedium to long term. The interplay between technology and behaviour needs to be taken into
account.
• A significant share of global greenhouse gas emissions is due to cities. Existing initiatives andprojects at city-level around the world show that effective action can be and is being
undertaken.

67

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

29/11/07

13:59

Page 68

Appendix iii

ApIntroduction

FurthAchieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society was the second in the series of Low-Carbon Society
workshops hosted and organised by The Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MoEJ) and the UK
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the UK Energy Research Centre(UKERC), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research. 63 experts from 20 countries and 15 international organisations contributed to
the workshop; 20 business representatives also attended the symposium.

We fo
the febeen

Global greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak within the next 10-15 years followed by
reductions of at least 50 per cent by 2050 if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. Developed
country emissions will need to be reduced significantly. As much as a 60-80 per cent reduction inemissions from developed countries by 2050 are feasible, both technically and economically. In
addition, developing country emissions will need to follow a pathway that allows continued growthand development whilst making the transition to a low-carbon society.

•

Climate change is now recognised as an economic as well an environmental problem. The costs ofstrong and urgent action both in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change are vastly
outweighed by the future costs of inaction. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) expected macro-economic costs of moving to low-carbon societies are less than 0.12
percentage points reduction of annual global GDP growth.

Next

•

•

A thirdemo
visionachievsustaiaccep
will bmapp
Japan

Any delay in mitigation (i.e. interventions that reduce the sources or enhance the sinks ofgreenhouse gases) causes significant cost increases. Stabilising at a level below 450 parts per million(ppm) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) would require global emissions to peak in the next 10 to
15 years. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of the required reduction.
Equally, even with strong international action to tackle climate change some level of adaptation willneed to be a key part of any future development strategy. Policies will need to take into account thepotential for future costs associated with damages from emissions of greenhouse gases, whilst
supporting technology development and combating deforestation.

InternLond
June,Workshop outputs
Policy recommendations
Participants identified six key areas of policy that should be viewed as priority areas for development
in order to move towards low-carbon societies:• Develop frameworks that create financial incentives for enhancing the deployment of Carbon
Capture and Storage, in particular international regulatory mechanisms to enable
demonstration projects such as cap and trade systems and a global carbon market.
• A comprehensive programmatic approach to global forestry and soil carbon stocks, taking into
account a long-term carbon price to provide incentives for sustainable land use management• Establish a fiscal framework that discourages low sustainability developments and helps toprevent the degradation of rural land.
• An approach to transport policies that promote more sustainable mobility through carbon pricing
in the transport sector in all areas such as; infrastructure, personal vehicle use and public transport• Create long-term regulatory measures that provide incentives for the design, construction anduse of more energy efficient homes whilst addressing the need for enhanced RD&D in the built
environment.
• Develop schemes, such as carbon labelling, which raise people’s awareness of the impacts that
their consumption choices have on their carbon footprint. Personal carbon allowances could
play a role in raising awareness and promoting action, but the operation of any scheme needs
to be assessed carefully.
68

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 69

Appendix iii

Further work and researchocietyhe UK
Centreimate
ted toWe found that there are research activities focused on country-level and city-level actions to evaluate
the feasibility of low-carbon society scenarios, and that a new modelling comparison framework has
been developed. Further research is needed – among the ideas discussed at the workshop were:

ed by
loped
ion inlly. In
rowth• To investigate the harmonisation of policies (emissions trading, common technology standards)
to enhance development of low-carbon societies, and;• To develop a low-carbon society road map to clarify role of policy options and timing in aphysical, financial, and economical manner,• To further identify the existing networks of stakeholders working on low-carbon society
activities, such as governments (both national and sub-national level), business and researchcommunities, NGOs and civil society.

Next steps

sts ofgh the(IPCC)ntage

A third low-carbon society workshop will be held 13-15 February 2008 in Japan with the aim ofdemonstrating feasibility of low-carbon societies through establishing methodologies for creating
visions and drawing roadmaps, and raising awareness. The third workshop will focus on scientificachievement of the low-carbon society study, explore integration of low-carbon societies andsustainable development, and mobilise wider dialogue among stakeholders. It was proposed andaccepted by the participants that a compilation of visions of low-carbon societies by various countries
will be prepared for the third workshop. Work on developing the policy recommendations andmapping of low-carbon society activities will continue with the aim of delivery at the G8 summit inJapan mid-2008.

ks ofmillion10 to

on willnt thewhilstInternational Steering Committee
London, United Kingdom
June, 2007

pment

arbon
nable

g intoment

lps topricing
nsportn ande builts that
could
needs
68

69

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 70

Notes

InternCo-chInternComm

70

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 71

International Steering Committee

Co-chairs:

Shuzo Nishioka (NIES, Japan)
Jim Skea (UKERC, UK)

International Steering Andrew Bolitho (Defra, UK)
Committee
Stephen Cornelius (Defra, UK)
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
Jose Alberto Garibaldi (Energeia, Mexico)
Kejun Jiang (Energy Research Institute, China)
Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan)
Sarah Keay-Bright (UKERC, UK)
Jonathan Pershing (World Resource Institute, USA)
P.R. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Naoya Tsukamoto (MoEJ, Japan)
David Warrilow (Defra, UK)
Jeremy Watson (ARUP, UK)
Jim Watson (SPRU and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK)
Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)71

DEF-PB12826_LowCarb.qxd

21/11/07

14:22

Page 72

The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Ministry of theEnvironment of Japan (MoEJ) are working together on the joint research project “Low-Carbon
Society Scenarios Towards 2050”. The focus for the development of the joint research project
between the UK and Japan was on deepening our understanding of the need to reduce greenhousegases to achieve low-carbon societies and using the scientific evidence base delivered through thesubmission of country level emission scenarios. Further specific objectives were set for the UK-Japan
collaboration to explore:• Identifying and understanding the necessity for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
toward 2050
• Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario studies in developed and developing countries• Formulating win-win strategies to align sustainable development and climate objectives• Studying methodologies to achieve low-carbon societies – visions; pathways modelling the futuresociety; technological, institutional, behavioural and financial mechanisms• Identifying gaps between goals and the current reality• Sharing best practices and information• Identifying opportunities for cooperation
The full report can be found at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/
Contact person: Stephen Cornelius (Defra), steve.cornelius@defra.gsi.gov.uk
Zone 3F, Ergon House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR

Nobel House
17 Smith Square
London SW1P 3JR
www.defra.gov.uk
PB12826

November 2007