November 27th 2020
Documentation for Blind Prediction Study Step 3
We thank you for accepting our invitation to participate as an analyst in the blind prediction
Step 3 for the simulation of strong motions observed at the prediction site. Your analytic
contributions will be consisted of the processed data and simulation data including therelevant parametric information. For your participation, you will be acknowledged directly
when the report is presented. However, your identity will remain masked from your specificanalytic contributions as results will be codified. The test data are consisted of unpublishedrecordings. The data were collected by the local organizing committee of ESG6 with a close
collaboration of the JR Kyushu Railway Co. and Kyushu University. We are currently at Step
3 of the study and your instructions are as follows :(1) Download the ground motion data : http://sds.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/esg6-bp/
In Step 2, we released 12 ground motion data at both the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO)
and the prediction site (KUMA). We also released one target ground motion data (No.35 inTable 1) only at the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO). The prediction site is the same as “thetarget station site for Blind Prediction Study Step 1”. Details of earthquakes are shown inTable 1. Locations of these earthquakes and these two stations are shown in Figure 1. See“BP2-Specifications.docx”, for details of Step 2.
In Step 3, here, we release the foreshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake on April 14, 2016,at 21:26 JST (Mj 6.5) and the main shock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake on April 16,
2016, at 1:25 JST (Mj 7.3) at the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO). The ground motion data
is recorded by unit of m/s (in velocity). We only extracted their DC components by using theaverage over the 100 samples of pre-trigger data. Note that the records following the arrivalof wave packets with the maximum amplitude for the main shock were lost because oftechnical issues with the back-up battery (Tsuno et al., 2017). For the information of source
models for these two earthquakes, please check the web site of “Earthquake Source Model
Database” maintained by Paul Martin Mai (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod/).
(2) Results of in situ measurements and laboratory tests, preferred velocity model and so on

We give results of in situ measurements and laboratory tests, preferred velocity model madeby the local organizing committee of ESG6, Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model(JIVSM), Geological map by AIST, as follows :A. Results of in situ measurements and laboratory tests by Oyo (2020): See the file
“Kumamoto Eq. Ground Structure Survey.pdf”
B. Preferred velocity model made by the local organizing committee of ESG6: See the file
“Preferred model.xlsx”
The preferred model is simply integrated by both the model of PS logging data (A) for ashallow profile up to Vs 290 m/s and the model of Senna et al. (2018) for a deep profile.
C. Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM) by Koketsu et al. (2009 & 2012): See
the file “JIVSM.txt”
D. Geological map by AIST: See the web site of “Seamless Digital Geological Map of Japan(1:200,000) by National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)”(https://gbank.gsj.jp/seamless/index_en.html?)(3) You are requested to simulate earthquake ground motions for the target earthquakes ofthe main shock and the foreshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake at the prediction site,
by any simulation techniques such as, the 1-D method, GMPE, the empirical Greenʼs function
method, and the 2-D/3-D simulation. At least, acceleration data for a horizontal component
with a sampling frequency of 100Hz and the Fourier spectrum in the reliable frequency range
is requested, describing the starting time and the duration in your simulation. A submissionof two or three component data is optional but preferred. Any other relevant information on
the parameters used in the simulation is also requested. In case of theoretical methods, thedescription on the structure model used is requested. In case of non-linear analysis, thedescription on non-linear parameter used and shear strain estimated is requested.
(4) Document your parameters and results by filling the columns for each tab in the respective
Step3-waveform_(mainshockorforeshock).KawaseH.xlsx

andStep3-Fourier-spectrum_(mainshock or foreshock).KawaseH.xlsx template file provided by the same site
described in (1). Please also describe your procedure of simulation in one to two page(s) of aword file within about 1000 words including up to three figures and tables. Necessary items
are listed in the template file, ex. Step3-procedure_mainshock.KawaseH.docx.
(5) Attach these files and send us an e-mail with your results to esg6-bp@jaee.gr.jp (pleasewrite “BP Step3 results <Surname>” in the subject). Append your surname and first name'sinitial to the files containing your results, e.g., Step3-waveform_foreshock.KawaseH.xlsx.
Please note that the scheduled deadline for completion of Step 3 is October 31November 30.
(6) The participants are encouraged to submit extended abstracts of your results to the BlindPrediction Special Session during ESG6, and present your results as posters. Please note thatthe one- or two- page document submitted with your simulation described above will be used
only for the analysis by the working group of ESG6 LOC for this blind prediction experiment.

Table 1. Event information
No.
4
Target EQ 35
43
64
80
104
109
121
127
161
205
206
227

JMAF-net
Y. M. D. H. M.
S.
Latitude Longitude Depth(km) M Latitude Longitude Depth(km) Strike (°) Dip (°)
15.46
3.3
2016 4 16 1 5 42.48 32.71633 130.80483
No information
2016 4 16 3 3 10.78 32.96383 131.08683
6.89
5.9 32.9638 131.0868
5209 ; 116 60 ; 852016 4 16 4 5 49.2 32.79733 130.81317
12.29
4No information
2016 4 16 7 23 54.32 32.78667 130.77383
11.93
4.8 32.7867 130.7738
592 ; 248 29 ; 632016 4 16 11 2 51.71 32.75833 130.77817
14.57
4.4 32.7583 130.7782
11199 ; 34 41 ; 502016 4 17 0 14 51.69 32.96167 131.07917
8.92
4.8 32.9617 131.0792
8241 ; 140 54 ; 752016 4 17 4 46 49.09 32.68717 130.77617
10.32
4.5 32.6872 130.7762
5276 ; 181 60 ; 822016 4 17 19 23 41.22 32.6775 130.72067
10.58
4.4 32.6775 130.7207
8302 ; 80 39 ; 592016 4 18 8 35 43.02 32.8695 130.87333
10.2
4.2 32.8695 130.8733
8318 ; 98 36 ; 612016 4 21 21 52 3.39 32.78533 130.83183
10.98
4 32.7853 130.8318
8358 ; 262 65 ; 782016 5 5 10 31 30.47 33.00033 131.13417
11.16
4.6 33.0003 131.13428208 ; 116 71 ; 842016 5 5 10 40 12.83 32.99283 131.12217
10.81
4.9 32.9928 131.1222
8320 ; 228 79 ; 84
No information
2016 5 19 2 37 44.28 32.83133 130.81417
16.43
3.9rake (°)-174 ; -30 1.92E+17 5.5-69 ; -101-102 ; -80-161 ; -38
10 ; 150-55 ; -115-56 ; -112
-167 ; -26-174 ; -196 ; 169

Target EQ
KU.KMP1; SEVO
Prediction site (KUMA)

Figure 1. Locations of earthquakes and stations (Red star indicate the epicenter of the target
earthquake in Step 2. Black stars denote epicenters of foreshock and mainshock of the 2016
Kumamoto earthquake. Source fault planes of foreshock and mainshock by Asano and Iwata[2016] are also projected on the surface.)

Mo (Nm) Mw

8.86E+15
3.72E+15
1.18E+16
4.52E+15
4.88E+15
2.41E+15
7.14E+14
8.44E+15
1.52E+16

4.6
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.6
4.8

References
Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) Seamless Digital Geological Map ofJapan (1:200,000), https://gbank.gsj.jp/seamless/index_en.html?

Asano, K. and Iwata, T. (2016) Source rupture processes of the foreshock and mainshock inthe 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion
ofstrong

motiondata,

Earth,

Meteorological

Agency(JMA),

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623016-0519-9.

Japan

Planets

JMA

andunified

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/bulletin/index_e.html.

Space,

68:147,

hypocenter

catalog,

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), F-net (FullRange Seismograph Network of Japan), http://www.fnet.bosai.go.jp/top.php?LANG=en

Koketsu, K., Miyake, H., Afnimar, and Tanaka, Y. (2009) A proposal for a standard procedureof modeling 3-D velocity structures and its application to the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan,Tectonophysics, 472, 290-300.

Koketsu, K., Miyake, H., and Suzuki, H. (2012) Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model

Version 1, Proc. World Conf. Earthq. Eng., Paper No. 1773.

Mai, P. M. Earthquake Source Model Database, http://equake-rc.info/srcmod/

Senna, S., Wakai, A., Suzuki, H., Yatagai, A., Matsuyama, H., and Fujiwara, H. (2018)
Modeling of the Subsurface Structure from the Seismic Bedrock to the Ground Surface for aBroadband Strong Motion Evaluation in Kumamoto Plain, J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.5, pp.
917-927.

Oyo Corporation (2020) Kumamoto Eq. Ground Structure Survey Report (Draft)

Tsuno, S., Korenaga, M., Okamoto, K., Yamanaka, H., Chimoto, K., and Matsushima, T.
(2017) Local site effects in Kumamoto City revealed by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,
Earth, Planets and Space, 69:37, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-017-0622-6.
Acknowledgements
We profoundly thank to Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Faculty of Science, Kyushu
University, for providing us with seismic records of KU.KMP1. The documents to describe
about the JIVSM data was kindly prepared by Prof. Koketsu and Prof. Miyake of ERI,
University of Tokyo.

Ground motion data file
File format for ground motion data (e.g. 20160414212634.43_SEVO.txt)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Origin Time 2016/04/14 21:26:34.43
Latitude32.7417 N

Longitude130.8087 E

Depth

11.39 km

Mag.

6.5

Station Code

KU.KMP1

Institute

SEVO

Sta.Lat.

32.8198 N

Sta.Long.

130.6227 E

Height175.00 m

Sampling Freq.
Duration

100 Hz234.00 sec

No. of Data

23400

Unitm/sec

Record Time2016/04/14 21:25:50

Memo.
Time(sec)

NSEW

UD

0.000 0.2167986E-02 0.2192048E-02 0.2103981E-02
0.010 0.2167024E-02 0.2193973E-02 0.2102538E-02
0.020 0.2167024E-02 0.2193492E-02 0.2102538E-02
0.030 0.2167024E-02 0.2193492E-02 0.2102056E-02
0.040 0.2166061E-02 0.2193973E-02 0.2100613E-02
0.050 0.2167505E-02 0.2192530E-02 0.2103500E-02…continue until the end of record…
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Terms of the use of the distributed data
We do not take any responsibility for any loss or disadvantage caused by using the data. The
data shall not be distributed to a third-party and must be downloaded by the registeredparticipants from the specified URL for their own use solely for this experiment. All
participants need to wait to use the distributed data for your specific study until the end of
the symposium or until the distributed data is made open to the society by means of apublication or DOI registration.
Report of results for the Blind Prediction exercise
We plan to compile and present results and facilitate discussions for all the three steps at theESG6 Symposium during 15-17 March 30 August to 1 (or 2) September 2021 in Kyoto, Japan.
Deadline for submission of your results for STEP 2 and STEP 3
Please note that the deadline for submitting your results is October 31, 2020 January 6, 2021.
Deadline for abstract submission for STEP 2 and STEP 3
Please note that the deadline for submitting your extended abstracts of the simulation for Step
2 and STEP 3 is December 18, 2020 January 31, 2021.
We thank you for your interest and participation in this blind prediction study.
With much appreciation,
ESG6 Chair for Blind Prediction Step 2/3, KAWASE Hiroshi on behalf ofESG6 Local organizing committee
esg6-bp@jaee.gr.jp