DP2019-22

The Impact of a Failed Coup dʼÉtat
on Happiness, Life Satisfaction, andTrust: The Case of the Plot in
Turkey on July 15, 2016
K. Ali AKKEMIK
Gerçek ÇIÇEKCharles Yuji HORIOKA
Yoko NIIMI

November 11, 2019

The Impact of a Failed Coup d’État on Happiness, Life Satisfaction, and Trust:
The Case of the Plot in Turkey on July 15, 2016
K. Ali Akkemik, Yamaguchi University1
Gerçek Çiçek, MEF University and Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg
Charles Yuji Horioka, Kobe University, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute,and National Bureau of Economic Research
Yoko Niimi, Doshisha University and Asian Growth Research InstituteNovember 2019
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the failed coup d’état attempt in Turkey on July 15, 2016,
on people’s happiness, life satisfaction, and trust and finds that the plot had a significant
negative effect on all three variables. This paper is the first to show that coups d’état can havea significant adverse effect on people’s well-being, as in the case of terrorist attacks.
Keywords: happiness, well-being, trust, life satisfaction, coup d’état, Turkey
JEL codes: I31

1

Corresponding author. Email: akkemik@yamaguchi-u.ac.jp

11. Introduction
There is a large economic literature about how natural disasters including weather events (e.g.,hurricanes and climate change), floods, and earthquakes affect subjective well-being including
happiness (e.g., Kimball et al., 2006; Rehdanz et al., 2015; and Sekulova and van den Bergh
2016). These studies generally find that natural disasters cause a decline in happiness.
In addition to natural disasters, violent means to achieve political or social objectives may
also affect well-being and social capital in a society. Among them, the importance of terrorism
has been well recognized in the literature, and various studies have examined the impact ofterrorism on happiness using data from surveys conducted before and after the incident. For
example, Clark and Stancanelli (2017) found a large negative impact of the Boston Marathon
bombing in 2013 on well-being, Romanov et al. (2012) found that terrorist activities in Israel
during the 2000-04 period did not have a significant impact on the happiness of Israeli citizens,
and Coupe (2017) found that the terrorist attacks in Paris in November 2015 worsened
expectations about the future but increased trust in government while there was no effect on life
satisfaction.
Another example of violent means to achieve political or social objectives is a coup d’état
whereby military methods are used to seize a state. Coups d’ état can be expected to decreasehappiness and social capital because, like terrorism, they increase uncertainty and/or threaten
political and personal freedoms. While there are a number of studies that have examined theimpact of political regimes on happiness and social capital (e.g., Frey and Stutzer, 2000, 2002)
as well as the impact of terrorism (e.g., Frey, Luechinger, and Stutzer, 2009, and the papers
cited above), the impact of coups d’état on happiness and trust is an undiscovered area of
research.
In this paper, we examine the impact of the failed coup d’état attempt in Turkey on July
15, 2016, which cost the lives of about 300 civilians and caused more than 2000 injuries. Loyal
officials in the armed forces resisted, and the plot ended in failure. The government announced
a state of emergency one week after the plot and restricted civilian rights for two years until
July 2018. Thus, when interpreting our findings, we need to bear in mind that any decline inhappiness and trust that occurred after the coup is due not only to the failed coup attempt itself
but also to the government’s reaction to the failed coup.
For our empirical analysis, we use data from a national survey conducted during the JuneSeptember 2016 period in 12 representative provinces using a face-to-face interview method.
The survey was funded by Kadir Has University (Project No. 2016-BAP-02). Our data are
unique because 625 respondents were interviewed before July 15, 2016, and the remaining 1384
during the August-September 2016 period. The survey resumed after a three-week suspension
following the coup. We conduct a simple econometric analysis to find whether happiness, life
satisfaction, and trust changed significantly after the plot.
Previous studies on happiness, life satisfaction, and trust in Turkey have focused mainlyon the determinants of these variables.2 Our paper contributes to the literature on happinesseconomics by using a unique dataset and a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the possible
impact of a failed violent attempt to bring about regime change on happiness and trust. To thebest of our knowledge, this paper is the first such study for any country.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the data and the resultsof the analysis. Section 3 concludes.

See Eren and Aşıcı (2017) for a review of the determinants of happiness and Kayaoglu (2017) for a review ofthe determinants of trust.
22

2. Data and Analysis
2.1. Survey Data
We first explain the three outcome variables used in our analysis: happiness, trust, and life
satisfaction. We measure happiness using the following question: “Overall, how happy would
you say you are currently?” The scale for this question is from 0 (very unhappy) to 10 (veryhappy).
Trust is an important determinant of long-run growth (Zak and Knack, 2001), but measuring
it is not easy (Glaeser et al., 2000). We measure trust towards others using the following
question: “To what extent do you agree with the following statement: In general, most people
are trustworthy.” The scale for this question ranges from 1 (completely disagree) to 5(completely agree).
We measure life satisfaction using the following question: “How satisfied are you with yourlife overall?” We measure life satisfaction on a scale of 1 (unsatisfied) to 5 (satisfied).
In our empirical analysis, we also include variables pertaining to the following
sociodemographic characteristics of respondents: age and age squared, gender, marital status,
education, a dummy variable for having children, employment status, household income, risk
attitudes, dummy variables for provinces, and a set of categorical variables pertaining to
religiosity, self-reported health, satisfaction from relations with friends, and a feeling of being
lonely. In addition, we include a dummy variable for the period after the plot. Details about
these variables are presented in the appendix.
2.2. Changes in Happiness, Life Satisfaction, and Trust Before and After the Plot
Summary statistics before and after the plot for some of the variables we used in our analysis
are presented in Table 1. It should be noted that, although the data are from different periods,
the respondents interviewed are not the same people. Therefore, our analysis may suffer frompotential composition bias though we try to alleviate this problem by including a number ofcontrol variables.
The mean values of life satisfaction and trust are lower after the plot, and the differences
between the mean values of the two subsamples are statistically significant. Note that the scale
for these questions range from 1 (doesn’t hold true at all) to 5 (particularly true). Thus, theresults imply that respondents felt less satisfied with their lives and trusted others less after theplot. The decrease in trust was greater than that in life satisfaction. The mean value of happinessalso decreased after the plot but only slightly, and the difference was not statistically significant.
There are no comparable data from other surveys for the aforementioned variables.
However, the Life Satisfaction Survey, which is conducted annually by the Turkish Statistical
Institute (Turkstat), includes questions about life satisfaction and happiness. The percentage ofthe respondents who reported that they are “happy” or “very happy” declined from 61.3 percent
in 2016 to 58.0 percent in 2017 and further to 53.4 percent in 2018. This finding corroborates
the finding from our survey and also suggests that the negative impact of the coup persisted
even after the first few months, when our survey was conducted. Moreover, the fact that thepercentage of “happy” and “ very happy” respondents was roughly the same in 2009 and 2018,
and the fact that it showed an upward trend during the 2014-16 period strongly suggests thatthe decline in happiness in 2017 was not merely the continuation of a secular decline inhappiness but the result of the coup d’etat and related events.
The Turkstat survey also shows that the proportion of respondents who report that they aresatisfied with public services such as security and judicial services declined slightly,
presumably reflecting restrictions on civilian rights under the state of emergency.
Figure 1 shows the frequency distributions of the variables pertaining to happiness, life
satisfaction, and trust. The frequency distributions of happiness and life satisfaction do not showa large difference, but the percentage shares of both higher levels of happiness (8, 9, and 10)3and the highest level of life satisfaction (5) decline after the plot. Moreover, the percentage
shares of lower levels of trust (1 and 2) are significantly higher after the plot.
2.3. Ordered Probit Results
Next, we present the results of a simple ordered probit analysis that examines whether happiness,life satisfaction, and trust have changed significantly after the plot. For brevity, we present theresults only for our key explanatory variable, i.e., a dummy variable for the period after the plot.
Detailed results are available in the appendix.
Since the marginal effects of the explanatory variables at the mean are misleading fordiscrete variables, we look at the marginal effects of the probability of specific responses to thequestions about happiness, life satisfaction, and trust. Specifically, we look at the marginal
effects for happiness levels higher than 6 and for levels 4 and 5 for life satisfaction and trust.
These responses imply high levels of happiness, life satisfaction, and trust. Therefore, in what
follows, we examine the probabilities of respondents answering that they are relatively happy,
satisfied, and trusting of others.
The results of ordered probit estimations are presented in Table 2. In the case of happiness,there is a statistically significant (p<0.01) decline after the plot in the probability that people
feel happy--between 1.3 to 3.1 percentage points. The probability that people are trusting ofothers declines after the plot (p<0.05) by 2.7 and 2.0 percentage points for trust levels 4 and 5,
respectively. The probability that people feel more satisfied about their lives declines after theplot by 0.8 and 4.8 percentage points (p<0.05) for life satisfaction levels 4 and 5, respectively.
Based on these results, we argue that the failed plot negatively affected happiness, life
satisfaction, and trust for respondents who are relatively happy, more satisfied, and trusting ofothers. These results are comparable to the results from other studies about terrorist attacks.
Our finding that the plot reduced happiness and life satisfaction is similar to the finding of Clarkand Stancanelli (2017) from their analysis of the Boston marathon bombing that terrorism hada negative effect on well-being. However, our results are at variance with Coupe (2017), whofound no effect of the terrorist attacks in Paris on life satisfaction.
An interesting question is whether it matters whether or not the coup d’état succeeded or
failed. We would expect the impact of the event on happiness, life satisfaction, and trust to be
similar in either case. This is partly because the declaration of the state of emergency itself islikely to have increased uncertainty about the future, including the possibility of a recurrenceof the plot, and to have further increased the adverse effect on people’s well-being, as we
discussed in the introduction. As a consequence, even if the plot had succeeded, civilian rights
and citizens’ daily lives would presumably have been affected similarly.
4. Conclusion
This short paper examined the impact of the failed coup d’état in Turkey on July 15, 2016, on
happiness, trust, and life satisfaction and found that the plot had a significant negative effect on
all three variables, as expected.
The survey used for this analysis did not include questions about the political or ideologicalinclinations of respondents, which could have helped explain the changes in trust and happinessthrough the political impact of the plot. Montalvo (2011) shows how terrorist attacks may affectvoting behavior, and a similar mechanism may be at work with the plot as well. Similarly, thesurvey did not include any questions about trust in the ruling or opposition parties or in thegovernment in general.
Nevertheless, using unique data on people’s happiness, trust, and life satisfaction before
and after the coup d’état in Turkey, this paper is the first to show that coups d’état can have asignificant adverse effect on people’s well-being, as in the case of terrorist attacks.

4

Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge funding for this research from Kadir Has University (Project No.
2016-BAP-02).
References
Clark, A. and E. Stancanelli (2017). Individual Well-Being and the Allocation of Time Before
and After the Boston Marathon Terrorist Bombing. UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy
Discussion Paper, No. WP2017/08
Coupe, T. (2017). The Impact of Terrorism on Expectations, Trust and Happiness – The Caseof the November 13 Attacks in Paris, France. Applied Economics Letters, 24(15), 10841087
Eren, K. A. and A. A. Aşıcı (2017). The Determinants of Happiness in Turkey: Evidence from
City-Level Data. Journal of Happiness Studies, 18(3), 647-669
Frey, B. S. and A. Stutzer (2000). Happiness Prospers in Democracy. Journal of HappinessStudies, 1(1), 79-102
Frey, B. S. and A. Stutzer (2002). What Can Economists Learn from Happiness Research?
Journal of Economic Literature, 40, 402-435
Frey, B. S., S. Luechinger, and A. Stutzer (2009). The Life Satisfaction Approach to Valuing
Public Goods: The Case of Terrorism. Public Choice, 138, 317-345
Glaeser, E. L., D. I. Laibson, J. A. Scheinkman, and C. L. Soutter (2000). Measuring Trust.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115, 811-846
Kayaoglu, A. (2017). Determinants of Trust in Turkey. European Societies, 19(4), 492-516
Kimball, M., H. Levy, F. Ohtake, and Y. Tsutsui (2006). Unhappiness after Hurricane Katrina.
NBER Working Paper No. 12062
Montalvo, J. (2011). Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect ofTerrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(4),1146-1154
Romanov, D., A. Zussman, and N. Zussman (2012). Does Terrorism Demoralize? Evidence
from Israel. Economica, 79(313), 183–198
Sekulova, F. and J. C. J. M. van den Bergh (2016). Floods and Happiness: Empirical Evidence
from Bulgaria. Ecological Economics, 126, 51-57
Turkish Statistical Institute. Life Satisfaction Survey, 2016 and 2017 issues.
Zak, P. J. and S. Knack (2001). Trust and Growth. Economic Journal, 111(470), 295-321

5

Table 1. Changes in responses to selected questions before and after the plot
Before the plot
Mean

Std.
dev.
1.389
1.116

After the plot
Mean

Std.
dev.
1.21
1.005

Mean
comparison test
t statIn general, most people are trustworthy.
2.651
2.542
1.949*I am satisfied with my life overall.
3.834
3.732
1.698**Overall, how happy would you say you are
6.245
2.038
6.159
1.789
0.907
currently?
Note: The scale for the happiness variable is from 0 (very unhappy) to 10 (very happy). For the trust and life
satisfaction variables, the scale is from 1 (doesn’t hold true at all) to 5 (particularly true for me). The null
hypothesis for the t test is that the difference between the means of the respective variable in the pre-plot andpost-plot samples is zero. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.

6

Table 2. Marginal effects for ordered probit results
Dependent variable

After the plot
Log likelihood
Pseudo R

2

Observations

7-0.0234(0.0073)***

Level of happiness89-0.0310-0.0154(0.0096) ***(0.0049)***10-0.0131(0.0042)***

Level of trust
4
5-0.0267-0.0195(0.0122) ** (0.0090)**

Level of life satisfaction
45-0.0084-0.0476(0.0039) ** (0.0204) **-3460.6-2794.7-2260.6

0.03610.04560.1237

1,887

1,887

1,887

Note: Standard errors are in brackets. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

7

Figure 1. Frequency distributions of happiness, life satisfaction, and trust before and after the
plot
30%

Happiness

25%
20%
Before plot
After plot

15%
10%
5%
0%
0

1

45%

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Life satisfaction

40%
Before plot
After plot

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1

2

40%

3

4

5

3

4

5

Trust
Before plot
After plot

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1

2

8

APPENDIX: DETAILED ECONOMETRIC RESULTS
Table A1. List of variables
Variable
HappinessLifesatisfaction
Trust

Survey question

Scale

Remarks

Overall, how happy would you
say you are currently?
How satisfied are you with yourlife overall?
To what extent do you agree witheach of the following statement:“In general, most people aretrustworthy”

0 ~ 10 (0: very unhappy, 10: very
happy)

Categorical variable

1 ~ 5 (1: unsatisfied, 5: satisfied)

Categorical variable

1 ~ 5 (1: doesn’t hold true at all for me,
5: particularly true for me)

Categorical variable
Dummy variable: 1 if thedate of the interview wasafter July 15; 0 otherwise

After the plot
Religious

How true for you is the following
statement: “I am deeply religious”

1 ~ 5 (1: doesn’t hold true at all for me,
5: particularly true for me)

Age

What is your age?

18 ~GenderYour gender

1: female, 2: male

Marital status

Please answer about your marital
status1: married, 2: divorced, 3: widow, 4:
single, 5: married but living separately,
6: not married, living together withpartner

Children

How many sons or daughters do
you have? If you do not have any
children, please indicate 0 in thefollowing box.

0~

Education

Please indicate the highest level of
education (or equivalent)completed by you.

Employment

What is your employment status?

IncomeRisk attitude

Self-reported
healthFeeling lonely
Good relations
with friends

Approximately how much was theannual earned income before
taxes and with bonuses includedof your entire household for2015? (If you are a student, pleaseindicate the income of yourparents’ entire household)How high does the chance of rain
have to be before you will bringan umbrella with you when you
go out? (Write in number from 0 100) ____%How true for you is the following
statement: “I have anxieties about
my health”
How true for you is the following
statement: “I have been feelinglonely”
How satisfied are you withrelations with your friends?

Categorical variable

Dummy variable: 1 male;
0 otherwise
Dummy variables:
married (1,5), divorced
and widow (2, 3), nevermarried (4,6)
Dummy variable: 1 if haschildren; 0 otherwise

1: primary, 2: primary dropout, 3:
secondary, 4: secondary dropout, 5:high school, 6: high school dropout, 7:
college dropout, 8: two-year college, 9:four-year college, 10: graduate school
dropout, 11: master’s, 12: PhD
1: employed, 2: unemployed, 3: not inlabor force (student,
housewife/househusband), retired, notworking
Categories: less than TRY10,000,
between TRY10,000-20,000, between
TRY 20,000-40,000, between TRY
40,000-60,000, between TRY 60,00080,000, between TRY 80,000-100,000,
between TRY 100,000-120,000,
between TRY 120,000-140,000,
between TRY 140,000-160,000,
between TRY 160,000-180,000,
between TRY 180,000-200,000, morethan TRY 200,000.

Dummy variables: lessthan high (<5 or 6), high(5 or 7), college (>7)

Dummy variables foreach
We divide householdincome measured in
Turkish Lira (TRY) by
the square root of thesize of household size.
We use midpoints foreach category. We use
TRY8,000 for bottom
category and
TRY250,000 for top
category. Income figures
are in thousands.

0 ~ 100

1 ~ 5 (1: doesn’t hold true at all for me,
5: particularly true for me)

Categorical variable

1 ~ 5 (1: doesn’t hold true at all for me,
5: particularly true for me)

Categorical variable

1 ~ 5 (1: unsatisfied, 5: satisfied)

Categorical variable9Table A2. Average marginal effects for ordered probit models (dependent variable: level ofhappiness)
Dependent variable
After the plot
Trust = 2
Trust = 3
Trust = 4
Trust = 5
Religious = 2
Religious = 3
Religious = 4
Religious = 5
Age
Age squared
Male
Marital status: Married
Marital status: Never marriedChildren
Education: high school
Education: college
Employment: unemployed
Employment: employed
Risk lover
Self-reported health = 2
Self-reported health = 3

Happy = 0

Happy = 1

Happy = 2

Happy = 3

Happy = 4

Happy = 5

0.0027**0.0050***0.0061***0.0136***0.0157***0.0320***(0.0011)(0.0018)(0.0020)(0.0043)(0.0050)(0.0100)-0.0018-0.0032-0.0038-0.0082-0.0091-0.0172(0.0013)(0.0021)(0.0025)(0.0052)(0.0057)(0.0108)-0.0025**-0.0045**-0.0054**-0.0118**-0.0133**-0.0259**(0.0013)(0.0021)(0.0025)(0.0051)(0.0057)(0.0109)-0.0032**-0.0058***-0.0071***-0.0157***-0.0180***-0.0363***(0.0014)(0.0022)(0.0026)(0.0053)(0.0060)(0.0118)-0.0030*-0.0053**-0.0064**-0.0141**-0.0160**-0.0318**(0.0016)(0.0026)(0.0032)(0.0068)(0.0078)(0.0162)

0.00210.00370.00440.00980.01100.0215(0.0016)(0.0028)(0.0033)(0.0073)(0.0082)(0.0163)0.00080.00150.00180.00410.00470.0097(0.0013)(0.0023)(0.0028)(0.0063)(0.0073)(0.0152)0.00040.00080.00100.00230.00260.0054(0.0012)(0.0022)(0.0027)(0.0062)(0.0073)(0.0152)-0.0011-0.0021-0.0027-0.0063-0.0076-0.0168(0.0013)(0.0024)(0.0030)(0.0068)(0.0081)(0.0177)0.0003*0.0005**0.0007**0.0015**0.0017**0.0035**(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0003)(0.0007)(0.0008)(0.0017)-0.0004*-0.0006**-0.0008**-0.0018**-0.0020**-0.0041**(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0004)(0.0008)(0.0010)(0.0020)0.0014*0.0026**0.0032**0.0072**0.0083**0.0169**(0.0008)(0.0013)(0.0016)(0.0034)(0.0039)(0.0078)-0.0025*-0.0045**-0.0055**-0.0124**-0.0143**-0.0293**(0.0013)(0.0023)(0.0027)(0.0059)(0.0067)(0.0136)0.00130.00230.00280.00640.00740.0150(0.0016)(0.0029)(0.0035)(0.0078)(0.0090)(0.0183)

0.0027*0.0049**0.0060**0.0134**0.0155**0.0316**(0.0014)(0.0024)(0.0029)(0.0063)(0.0071)(0.0143)-0.0010-0.0018-0.0022-0.0048-0.0056-0.0114(0.0009)(0.0016)(0.0020)(0.0045)(0.0051)(0.0103)-0.0012-0.0021-0.0026-0.0059-0.0068-0.0138(0.0010)(0.0017)(0.0021)(0.0048)(0.0055)(0.0111)0.00020.00040.00050.00120.00140.0029(0.0010)(0.0019)(0.0023)(0.0051)(0.0059)(0.0120)-0.0002-0.0004-0.0005-0.0012-0.0014-0.0029(0.0007)(0.0013)(0.0016)(0.0037)(0.0042)(0.0086)-0.0021*-0.0039*-0.0047*-0.0106*-0.0123*-0.0251*(0.0013)(0.0022)(0.0027)(0.0060)(0.0068)(0.0139)-0.0155-0.0207*-0.0211**-0.0386**-0.0347**-0.0405***(0.0098)(0.0112)(0.0106)(0.0171)(0.0135)(0.0113)-0.0190*-0.0267**-0.0281**-0.0536***-0.0512***-0.0713***(0.0100)(0.0115)(0.0111)(0.0173)(0.0136)(0.0105)

10

Self-reported health = 4
Self-reported health = 5
IncomeFeeling lonely = 2
Feeling lonely = 3
Feeling lonely = 4
Feeling lonely = 5Good relations with friends = 2
Good relations with friends = 3
Good relations with friends = 4
Good relations with friends = 5-0.0202**-0.0291**-0.0311***-0.0608***-0.0598***-0.0903***(0.0102)(0.0117)(0.0114)(0.0179)(0.0143)(0.0135)-0.0209**-0.0304**-0.0328***-0.0649***-0.0651***-0.1030***(0.0103)(0.0118)(0.0115)(0.0183)(0.0151)(0.0185)0.00010.00010.00020.00040.00040.0009(0.0001)(0.0001)(0.0001)(0.0003)(0.0003)(0.0006)-0.0024-0.0038-0.0044-0.0090-0.0095-0.0158(0.0019)(0.0031)(0.0034)(0.0068)(0.0070)(0.0113)-0.0040**-0.0067**-0.0078**-0.0166**-0.0179**-0.0319***(0.0021)(0.0032)(0.0035)(0.0069)(0.0071)(0.0118)-0.0048**-0.0082**-0.0096***-0.0205***-0.0225***-0.0416***(0.0021)(0.0033)(0.0036)(0.0070)(0.0074)(0.0124)-0.0068***-0.0122***-0.0149***-0.0333***-0.0386***-0.0804***(0.0024)(0.0037)(0.0040)(0.0075)(0.0082)(0.0154)0.0024***0.0047***0.0059***0.0136***0.0163***0.0361***(0.0009)(0.0014)(0.0018)(0.0036)(0.0044)(0.0095)

0.0060***0.0106***0.0127***0.0281***0.0319***0.0635***(0.0019)(0.0028)(0.0031)(0.0054)(0.0062)(0.0108)

0.0073**0.0125**0.0149**0.0324***0.0362***0.0700***(0.0037)(0.0055)(0.0059)(0.0114)(0.0116)(0.0178)

0.02280.0324*0.0346**

0.0674**0.0663***0.1010***(0.0157)(0.0179)(0.0171)(0.0263)(0.0204)(0.0139)

Province dummies
Gaziantep
Bursa
TrabzonTekirdagIstanbul
AnkaraKayseriMalatyaErzurum
SamsunIzmir-0.0013-0.0023-0.0028-0.0062-0.0072-0.0147(0.0013)(0.0023)(0.0028)(0.0062)(0.0072)(0.0146)-0.0039**-0.0070***-0.0086***-0.0193***-0.0223***-0.0455***(0.0016)(0.0026)(0.0031)(0.0063)(0.0074)(0.0144)0.00270.00490.00600.01340.01550.0316(0.0022)(0.0038)(0.0046)(0.0102)(0.0119)(0.0241)(0.0018)-0.0034-0.0041-0.0092-0.0106-0.0217(0.0023)(0.0042)(0.0051)(0.0114)(0.0133)(0.0271)-0.0034**-0.0062***-0.0075***-0.0169***-0.0195***-0.0398***(0.0014)(0.0021)(0.0025)(0.0051)(0.0061)(0.0121)(0.0018)-0.0033-0.0040-0.0091-0.0104-0.0213(0.0013)(0.0022)(0.0027)(0.0058)(0.0068)(0.0137)(0.0014)-0.0025-0.0031-0.0070-0.0080-0.0164(0.0017)(0.0031)(0.0038)(0.0084)(0.0097)(0.0197)(0.0001)-0.0002-0.0002-0.0004-0.0005-0.0011(0.0022)(0.0041)(0.0050)(0.0112)(0.0129)(0.0263)-0.0077***-0.0140***-0.0171***-0.0384***-0.0443***-0.0905***(0.0027)(0.0044)(0.0051)(0.0103)(0.0116)(0.0235)(0.0012)-0.0021-0.0026-0.0058-0.0067-0.0136(0.0015)(0.0027)(0.0033)(0.0072)(0.0083)(0.0169)-0.0027**-0.0050**-0.0061**-0.0137**-0.0158**-0.0323**(0.0014)(0.0023)(0.0028)(0.0060)(0.0067)(0.0136)

1,887

1,887

1,887

Observations
1,887
1,887
1,887
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

11

Table A2. Average marginal effects for ordered probit models (dependent variable: level ofhappiness) – continued
Dependent variable
After the plot
Trust = 2
Trust = 3
Trust = 4
Trust = 5
Religious = 2
Religious = 3
Religious = 4
Religious = 5
Age
Age squared
Male
Marital status: Married
Marital status: Never marriedChildren
Education: high school
Education: college
Employment: unemployed
Employment: employed
Risk lover
Self-reported health = 2
Self-reported health = 3

Happy = 6

Happy = 7

Happy = 8

Happy = 9

Happy = 10

0.0079***-0.0234***-0.0310***-0.0154***-0.0131***(0.0028)(0.0073)(0.0096)(0.0049)(0.0042)-0.0026

0.01460.01690.00790.0064(0.0019)(0.0093)(0.0107)(0.0050)(0.0041)-0.0049**0.0208**0.0254**0.0122**0.0101**(0.0024)(0.0090)(0.0106)(0.0051)(0.0043)-0.0085**0.0272***0.0352***0.0174***0.0149***(0.0034)(0.0090)(0.0114)(0.0058)(0.0051)-0.0068

0.0245**0.0310**0.0151*0.0127*(0.0048)(0.0114)(0.0155)(0.0080)(0.0071)0.0042-0.0172-0.0211-0.0101-0.0084(0.0040)(0.0125)(0.0159)(0.0078)(0.0067)

0.0024-0.0071-0.0094-0.0046-0.0040(0.0041)(0.0107)(0.0146)(0.0074)(0.0064)0.0014-0.0039-0.0052-0.0026-0.0023(0.0042)(0.0105)(0.0146)(0.0074)(0.0065)-0.0058

0.01010.01590.00850.0078(0.0059)(0.0111)(0.0168)(0.0089)(0.0081)0.0009**-0.0026**-0.0034**-0.0017**-0.0014**(0.0004)(0.0012)(0.0016)(0.0008)(0.0007)-0.0010**0.0030**0.0040**0.0020**0.0017**(0.0005)(0.0014)(0.0019)(0.0010)(0.0008)0.0042**-0.0124**-0.0163**-0.0081**-0.0069**(0.0020)(0.0058)(0.0076)(0.0038)(0.0032)-0.0072**

0.0214**0.0283**0.0140**0.0120**(0.0035)(0.0100)(0.0132)(0.0065)(0.0057)

0.0037-0.0110-0.0145-0.0072-0.0062(0.0046)(0.0134)(0.0177)(0.0088)(0.0075)

0.0078**-0.0231**-0.0305**-0.0151**-0.0130**(0.0037)(0.0106)(0.0139)(0.0069)(0.0060)-0.00280.00830.01100.00550.0047(0.0026)(0.0076)(0.0100)(0.0050)(0.0042)-0.00340.01010.01340.00660.0057(0.0028)(0.0082)(0.0108)(0.0054)(0.0045)0.0007-0.0021-0.0028-0.0014-0.0012(0.0030)(0.0088)(0.0116)(0.0058)(0.0049)-0.00070.00210.00280.00140.0012(0.0021)(0.0063)(0.0083)(0.0041)(0.0036)-0.0062*0.0184*0.0242*0.0120*0.0103*(0.0036)(0.0102)(0.0135)(0.0067)(0.0057)

0.02100.0688**0.0508***0.0186***0.0118***(0.0152)(0.0288)(0.0178)(0.0061)(0.0039)0.01690.0957***0.0813***0.0327***0.0231***(0.0153)(0.0286)(0.0174)(0.0062)(0.0042)12

Self-reported health = 4
Self-reported health = 5
IncomeFeeling lonely = 2
Feeling lonely = 3
Feeling lonely = 4
Feeling lonely = 5Good relations with friends = 2
Good relations with friends = 3
Good relations with friends = 4
Good relations with friends = 5

0.01040.1070***0.0994***0.0423***0.0320***(0.0155)(0.0291)(0.0194)(0.0080)(0.0062)0.0046

0.1130***0.1110***0.0492***0.0389***(0.0169)(0.0293)(0.0224)(0.0109)(0.0098)

0.0002-0.0007-0.0009-0.0004-0.0004(0.0002)(0.0004)(0.0006)(0.0003)(0.0002)0.00000.01650.01630.00700.0052(0.0012)(0.0123)(0.0117)(0.0050)(0.0037)-0.00270.0299**0.0320***0.0144***0.0113***(0.0020)(0.0122)(0.0121)(0.0055)(0.0042)-0.0053*

0.0366***

0.0414***0.0192***0.0154***(0.0028)(0.0122)(0.0128)(0.0060)(0.0048)-0.0228***0.0546***0.0777***0.0403***0.0366***(0.0069)(0.0119)(0.0152)(0.0088)(0.0085)0.0124***-0.0218***-0.0343***-0.0183***-0.0169***(0.0038)(0.0056)(0.0090)(0.0050)(0.0049)

0.0143***-0.0480***-0.0620***-0.0307***-0.0265***(0.0038)(0.0088)(0.0106)(0.0056)(0.0052)

0.0134***-0.0558***-0.0689***-0.0335***-0.0284***(0.0046)(0.0201)(0.0187)(0.0084)(0.0067)-0.0099-0.1180***-0.1110***-0.0482***-0.0373***(0.0251)(0.0437)(0.0256)(0.0092)(0.0066)-0.00360.01080.01420.00710.0060(0.0036)(0.0107)(0.0142)(0.0070)(0.0060)-0.0112***0.0333***0.0440***0.0218***0.0187***(0.0041)(0.0108)(0.0141)(0.0071)(0.0061)

0.0078-0.0231-0.0306-0.0152-0.0130(0.0061)(0.0177)(0.0232)(0.0116)(0.0100)-0.00540.01590.02100.01040.0089(0.0069)(0.0197)(0.0261)(0.0130)(0.0112)-0.0098***

0.0291***0.0385***0.0191***0.0163***(0.0034)(0.0089)(0.0116)(0.0059)(0.0051)-0.00530.01560.02060.01020.0088(0.0035)(0.0101)(0.0132)(0.0066)(0.0056)-0.00410.01200.01590.00790.0067(0.0049)(0.0145)(0.0191)(0.0095)(0.0081)-0.00030.00080.00100.00050.0004(0.0065)(0.0192)(0.0254)(0.0126)(0.0108)-0.0223***

0.0662***0.0875***0.0434***0.0372***(0.0068)(0.0173)(0.0226)(0.0117)(0.0097)-0.00340.01000.01320.00650.0056(0.0042)(0.0124)(0.0164)(0.0081)(0.0071)-0.00798**

0.0237**0.0312**0.0155**0.0133**(0.0035)(0.0101)(0.0133)(0.0065)(0.0056)

1,887

1,887

1,887

Province dummies
Gaziantep
Bursa
TrabzonTekirdagIstanbul
AnkaraKayseriMalatyaErzurum
SamsunIzmir

Observations
1,887
1,887
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

13

Table A3. Average marginal effects for ordered probit models (dependent variable: level oflife satisfaction)
Dependent variable
After the plot
Trust = 2
Trust = 3
Trust = 4
Trust = 5
Religious = 2
Religious = 3
Religious = 4
Religious = 5
Age
Age squared
Male
Marital status: Married
Marital status: Never marriedChildren
Education: high school
Education: college
Employment: unemployed
Employment: employed
Risk lover
Self-reported health = 2
Self-reported health = 3

Satisfac. = 1

Satisfac. = 2

Satisfac. = 3

Satisfac. = 4

Satisfac. = 5

0.0071**0.0124**0.0364**-0.0084**-0.0476**(0.0031)(0.0054)(0.0157)(0.0039)(0.0204)

0.0092*0.0138*0.0321*-0.0172*-0.0379*(0.0048)(0.0074)(0.0172)(0.0091)(0.0204)-0.0014-0.0023-0.0061

0.00230.0075(0.0043)(0.0070)(0.0184)(0.0071)(0.0227)-0.0115***-0.0207***-0.0632***0.0103*0.0852***(0.0041)(0.0066)(0.0193)(0.0056)(0.0261)-0.0215***-0.0456***-0.1890***-0.0803***

0.3360***(0.0046)(0.0068)(0.0229)(0.0273)(0.0497)-0.0252***-0.0361***-0.0792***

0.0474***

0.0931***(0.0093)(0.0120)(0.0239)(0.0180)(0.0278)-0.0247***-0.0353***-0.0769***

0.0468***0.0901***(0.0093)(0.0115)(0.0215)(0.0181)(0.0241)-0.0287***-0.0425***-0.0983***

0.0511***0.1180***(0.0092)(0.0115)(0.0218)(0.0179)(0.0246)-0.0330***-0.0508***-0.1270***0.0514***0.1590***(0.0095)(0.0121)(0.0254)(0.0178)(0.0317)0.00040.00070.0019-0.0004-0.0025(0.0005)(0.0009)(0.0026)(0.0006)(0.0034)-0.0007-0.0013-0.00380.00090.0050(0.0006)(0.0010)(0.0029)(0.0007)(0.0038)

0.00360.00630.0185-0.0043-0.0242(0.0024)(0.0044)(0.0126)(0.0030)(0.0164)-0.0025-0.0043-0.0127

0.00290.0166(0.0044)(0.0077)(0.0225)(0.0052)(0.0293)0.00020.00030.0009-0.0002-0.0012(0.0060)(0.0106)(0.0311)(0.0071)(0.0406)-0.0018-0.0032-0.0092

0.00210.0120(0.0048)(0.0084)(0.0245)(0.0056)(0.0320)-0.0072**-0.0126**-0.0369**

0.0085**0.0482**(0.0033)(0.0057)(0.0163)(0.0041)(0.0212)-0.0077**-0.0136**-0.0397**

0.0091**

0.0519**(0.0037)(0.0062)(0.0177)(0.0045)(0.0232)-0.0005-0.0008-0.00230.00050.0030(0.0040)(0.0070)(0.0206)(0.0047)(0.0269)0.00050.00090.0026-0.0006-0.0034(0.0027)(0.0048)(0.0139)(0.0032)(0.0182)0.0086***0.0152***0.0445***-0.0102**-0.0581***(0.0031)(0.0053)(0.0151)(0.0040)(0.0195)-0.0090-0.0120-0.0230

0.01820.0259(0.0161)(0.0205)(0.0365)(0.0327)(0.0405)-0.0237-0.0350*-0.0805**

0.0432

0.0961**(0.0159)(0.0202)(0.0360)(0.0320)(0.0398)

14

Self-reported health = 4
Self-reported health = 5
IncomeFeeling lonely = 2
Feeling lonely = 3
Feeling lonely = 4
Feeling lonely = 5Good relations with friends = 2
Good relations with friends = 3
Good relations with friends = 4
Good relations with friends = 5-0.0296*-0.0463**-0.1170***0.04570.1480***(0.0160)(0.0206)(0.0384)(0.0320)(0.0444)-0.0313*-0.0498**-0.1310***0.04400.1680***(0.0162)(0.0213)(0.0446)(0.0323)(0.0569)0.00010.00020.0006-0.0001-0.0008(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0009)(0.0002)(0.0012)-0.00948*-0.0153*-0.0397*

0.01540.0491*(0.0056)(0.0087)(0.0212)(0.0101)(0.0256)-0.0094*-0.0151*-0.0390*0.01530.0482*(0.0057)(0.0088)(0.0214)(0.0102)(0.0258)-0.0071-0.0112-0.02810.01220.0342(0.0058)(0.0090)(0.0218)(0.0106)(0.0261)-0.0175***-0.0307***-0.0911***0.0174*0.1220***(0.0057)(0.0094)(0.0258)(0.0101)(0.0345)0.0175***0.0341***0.1190***0.0076-0.1780***(0.0031)(0.0046)(0.0142)(0.0067)(0.0213)0.0415***0.0669***0.1860***-0.0394***-0.255***(0.0068)(0.0086)(0.0176)(0.0125)(0.0223)

0.0789***0.1040***0.2290***-0.1070***-0.3050***(0.0228)(0.0214)(0.0222)(0.0375)(0.0277)0.2650**0.1900***0.2060***-0.2980***-0.3630***(0.1120)(0.0301)(0.0539)(0.0741)(0.0219)

Province dummies
Gaziantep
Bursa
TrabzonTekirdagIstanbul
AnkaraKayseriMalatyaErzurum
SamsunIzmir

0.00780.01370.0401-0.0092-0.0524(0.0051)(0.0090)(0.0262)(0.0064)(0.0341)-0.0074*-0.0130*-0.0380*0.00870.0496*(0.0043)(0.0075)(0.0215)(0.0054)(0.0279)

0.0189**0.0332**

0.0971**-0.0223**-0.1270**(0.0087)(0.0152)(0.0436)(0.0112)(0.0565)-0.0113*-0.0199*-0.0582*

0.0133*0.0760*(0.0066)(0.0114)(0.0332)(0.0080)(0.0434)-0.0018-0.0032-0.0095

0.00220.0123(0.0037)(0.0065)(0.0191)(0.0044)(0.0249)

0.00630.01120.0327-0.0075-0.0427(0.0046)(0.0081)(0.0231)(0.0055)(0.0303)0.0191***0.0336***

0.0985***-0.0226**-0.1290***(0.0070)(0.0117)(0.0336)(0.0090)(0.0436)-0.0056-0.0098-0.0286

0.0066

0.0374(0.0075)(0.0131)(0.0382)(0.0089)(0.0499)-0.0092-0.0162-0.04760.01090.0621(0.0083)(0.0144)(0.0426)(0.0099)(0.0556)

0.0285***0.0501***0.1470***-0.0337***-0.1910***(0.0065)(0.0105)(0.0286)(0.0097)(0.0365)-0.0121**-0.0212***-0.0622***0.0143**0.0812***(0.0048)(0.0080)(0.0228)(0.0061)(0.0296)

1,887

1,887

Observations
1,887
1,887
1,887
Note: ME: marginal effect, SE: standard error. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

15

Table A4. Average marginal effects for ordered probit models (dependent variable: level oftrust)
Dependent variable
After the plot
Religious = 2
Religious = 3
Religious = 4
Religious = 5
Age
Age squared
Male
Marital status: Married
Marital status: Never marriedChildren
Education: high school
Education: college
Employment: unemployed
Employment: employed
Risk lover
Self-reported health = 2
Self-reported health = 3
Self-reported health = 4
Self-reported health = 5
IncomeFeeling lonely = 2

Trust = 1

Trust = 2

Trust = 3

Trust = 4

Trust = 5

0.0450**0.0133**-0.0121**-0.0267**-0.0195**(0.0204)(0.0062)(0.0055)(0.0122)(0.0090)-0.100**-0.0170**

0.0326**

0.0526***0.0323***(0.0393)(0.0070)(0.0135)(0.0200)(0.0124)-0.0772**-0.0108***

0.0261**0.0391**

0.0228**(0.0363)(0.0038)(0.0131)(0.0173)(0.0094)-0.1310***-0.0277***

0.0397***0.0714***0.0473***(0.0355)(0.0056)(0.0128)(0.0175)(0.0104)-0.1220***-0.0242***0.0378***0.0657***0.0425***(0.0398)(0.0081)(0.0134)(0.0206)(0.0137)-0.0045-0.00130.00120.00270.0020(0.0036)(0.0011)(0.0010)(0.0021)(0.0016)0.00420.0012-0.0011-0.0025-0.0018(0.0041)(0.0012)(0.0011)(0.0025)(0.0018)-0.0214-0.00630.00580.01270.0093(0.0166)(0.0049)(0.0045)(0.0098)(0.0072)-0.0280-0.0083

0.00750.01660.0122(0.0274)(0.0081)(0.0074)(0.0163)(0.0119)-0.0544-0.01610.01460.03230.0236(0.0373)(0.0111)(0.0101)(0.0221)(0.0163)-0.0158-0.00470.00420.00940.0069(0.0310)(0.0091)(0.0083)(0.0183)(0.0135)-0.0075-0.00220.00200.00450.0033(0.0209)(0.0062)(0.0056)(0.0124)(0.0091)0.00420.0013-0.0011-0.0025-0.0018(0.0225)(0.0067)(0.0060)(0.0134)(0.0098)-0.0119-0.0035

0.00320.00710.0052(0.0242)(0.0071)(0.0065)(0.0144)(0.0105)-0.0054-0.00160.00140.00320.0023(0.0190)(0.0056)(0.0051)(0.0112)(0.0082)

0.01590.0047-0.0043-0.0095-0.0069(0.0192)(0.0057)(0.0052)(0.0114)(0.0084)-0.0498-0.01230.01460.02830.0193(0.0594)(0.0116)(0.0190)(0.0320)(0.0201)-0.0329-0.0074

0.01000.01830.0120(0.0584)(0.0107)(0.0188)(0.0311)(0.0192)-0.0434-0.0103

0.01290.02440.0164(0.0608)(0.0119)(0.0193)(0.0327)(0.0206)-0.0945-0.0300*

0.02380.05690.0438*(0.0643)(0.0172)(0.0192)(0.0364)(0.0262)0.00080.0002-0.0002-0.0004-0.0003(0.0012)(0.0004)(0.0003)(0.0007)(0.0005)-0.0600**-0.0221**0.0134*0.0378**0.0310**(0.0285)(0.0095)(0.0074)(0.0174)(0.0135)

16

Feeling lonely = 3
Feeling lonely = 4
Feeling lonely = 5Good relations with friends = 2
Good relations with friends = 3
Good relations with friends = 4
Good relations with friends = 5-0.0269-0.00840.00690.01620.0122(0.0285)(0.0084)(0.0077)(0.0169)(0.0124)0.01210.0031-0.0035-0.0069-0.0048(0.0299)(0.0079)(0.0085)(0.0172)(0.0120)0.0774**0.0132*-0.0252**-0.0406**-0.0248**(0.0368)(0.0073)(0.0121)(0.0195)(0.0124)0.01020.0033-0.0026-0.0062-0.0047(0.0177)(0.0058)(0.0045)(0.0108)(0.0083)0.03010.0088-0.0081-0.0178-0.0130(0.0224)(0.0064)(0.0062)(0.0132)(0.0096)0.04870.0129-0.0138-0.0281-0.0197(0.0450)(0.0097)(0.0139)(0.0247)(0.0161)

0.0171-0.0716*-0.0969***-0.0540***(0.0125)(0.0386)(0.0353)(0.0148)0.2050**(0.0976)

Province dummies
Gaziantep
Bursa
TrabzonTekirdagIstanbul
AnkaraKayseriMalatyaErzurum
SamsunIzmir

0.01900.0056-0.0051-0.0113-0.0082(0.0319)(0.0094)(0.0085)(0.0189)(0.0139)-0.0113-0.0034

0.00300.00670.0049(0.0367)(0.0108)(0.0098)(0.0218)(0.0160)

0.1630***0.0483***-0.0438***-0.0970***-0.0710***(0.0589)(0.0177)(0.0165)(0.0352)(0.0256)-0.2780***-0.0821***0.0745***0.1650***0.1210***(0.0413)(0.0141)(0.0131)(0.0263)(0.0184)-0.0121-0.00360.00320.00720.0053(0.0234)(0.0069)(0.0063)(0.0139)(0.0101)-0.0051-0.00150.00140.00300.0022(0.0295)(0.0087)(0.0079)(0.0175)(0.0128)0.04450.0132-0.0119-0.0264-0.0193(0.0447)(0.0133)(0.0121)(0.0266)(0.0194)

0.2120***0.0625***-0.0568***-0.1260***-0.0919***(0.0493)(0.0153)(0.0143)(0.0291)(0.0224)

0.2130***0.0629***-0.0571***-0.1260***-0.0924***(0.0502)(0.0155)(0.0145)(0.0299)(0.0225)

0.0553*0.0163*-0.0148*-0.0328*-0.0240*(0.0327)(0.0098)(0.0088)(0.0195)(0.0143)0.1670***0.0493***-0.0448***-0.0991***-0.0725***(0.0318)(0.0103)(0.0096)(0.0193)(0.0143)

1,887

1,887

Observations
1,887
1,887
1,887
Note: ME: marginal effect, SE: standard error. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

17