DIPLOMACY
Vol.63, Sep. / Oct. 2020
Contents of Features

74 China: Fear and frustration towards the U.S. will move China

China was among the first to recover from the effects of COVID-19. People who are proud of the development of their country
have began to work with the government to deal with the United States, which “destroys the international order.”Sachiko Masuo (Kyushu University)

76 Russia: Putin’s dilemma in not being able to stop “anti-U.S., pro-China” policies: Yes, Russia
still seeks the reelection of Trump

President Trump is “easy to deal with” for President Putin who has increased his popularity through the constitutional revisionand further strengthening his support base. However, he cannot stop pursuing “anti-U.S.and pro-China” policies to maintain his
support within the country, which is the dilemma that he currently faces.
Shinji Hyodo (National Institute for Defense Studies)

82 Middle East: The shock of the normalization agreement between Israel and UAE

Normalization agreement was announced abruptly. Saudi Arabia will likely follow, but Pro-Arab forces are strengthening
opposition. Will the Middle East be divided into two by a new demarcation line?
Satoru Nakamura (Kobe University)

FOCUS: Various Post-COVID-19 “co-existence strategy”
86 The agreement on EU Common Bonds is the first step to rally together once again

European Council has begun on July 17 under a gloomy atmosphere. There were conflicts between frugal countries in
responding to COVID-19 restructuring and countries like Southern and Middle Eastern Europe, as well as dealing with Polandand Hungary over the “rule of law.” This article analyzes the intentions of each countries where they had to show solidarity withthe EU and demonstrate crisis management capacity.
Atsuko Higashino (Tsukuba University)

92 Now is the right time to get rid of oil and switch to renewable energy

As demand for oil and thus its costs decrease amidst COVID-19, investments in renewable energy have been stable. Like the“green deal” in Europe, energy strategy is tantamount to economic revitalization strategy. There is not much time left for Japan,
which has been late in its responses.
Hikaru Hiranuma (Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research)

TREND2020
102 From the frontlines of defense to Aegis Ashore: Japan’s changing security environment andJapan-U.S. Alliance
Katsutoshi Kawano (Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff)

108 Acute tension in Belarus

Michitaka Hattori (Institute for Russian & NIS Economic Studies)

114 What the prolongation of Putin administration means: Personal dominance and its problems
Atsushi Ohguchi (Keio University)

120 Can WTO be rebuilt? Leadership for reform is required for the next Director-General
Tsuyoshi Kawase (Sophia University)

126 In memoriam: President Lee Teng-hui in Taiwan’s political history: Liberalization and democratization
reform from 1988 to 1996
Hsueh Hua Yuan (National Chengchi University)

132 JICA Development Studies Program’s values and strategies: Japan will lead the world indevelopment studies
Shinichi Kitaoka (JICA President)

Special Feature:

U.S. Presidential Election
and the World

6

Cover story interview:Looking back at Prime Minister Abe’s diplomacy

A “poetic” political legacy of the long-term Abe administration: Leadership for liberalinternational order
Nobukatsu Kanehara (Former Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary)

16

U.S. Asia policy will be more active under the Biden administration

22

Stability of the Indo-Pacific region will depend on Japan and the U.S.

28

Trump administration and Japan-U.S. alliance: Achievement and challenges of the last four years

34

U.S. Presidential Election: Two realities, two nations

40

Roundtable: Undergoing structural change is solidifying existing divisions
Experts discuss issues such as the population change resulting in Whites becoming the minority, social media revealing thepolarized narratives, and the U.S. society in general through both structure and phenomena.
Yasushi Watanabe (Keio University), Takayuki Nishiyama (Seikei University), and Ryuichi Kanari (Asahi Shimbun)

52

The gap between the “Republican anti-Trump movement” and Trump supporters

58

Strong U.S. economy shaken by partisan conflict and COVID-19

64

Trade policies: Lighthizer’s shrewd trade strategy expands support among the working class68

Climate Change: U.S. Presidential election and global issues

Joe Biden has a rich foreign policy experience. Will the China policy of the U.S. change if the Biden administration comes intooffice? How will cooperation with allies and Asian countries proceed?
Kurt Campbell (Former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs)
Competition over the order of the Indo-Pacific region is intensifying with China’s BRI, information technology development,and infrastructure investment based on political considerations. Will Japan and the U.S. be able to maintain and further
develop existing cooperative framework?
Nadia Schadlow (Hudson Institute)Japan-U.S. alliance has deepened as seen from the sharing of strategic objectives and common values. However, issues
such as decoupling by North Korea, Japan-U.S.-ROK trilateral relationship, and President Trump’s demand for increased
payments make it harder to connect alliance with multilateral engagement.
Ken Jimbo (Keio University)

Both Republicans and Democrats are living in a “filter bubble” of different information environment, leading to different
interpretations on the exact same phenomenon, which may lead to an unexpected critical problem.
Fumiaki Kubo (University of Tokyo)

A “revolt” has occurred within the Republican Party as heavy weights showed support for Joe Biden. However, the Trump
supporters are unwavering. Both Republicans and Democrats will incite conflict as part of the performance to rile up theirbases, so no matter who wins, the new administration will be one that will be different from international consensus.
Masahito Watanabe (Hokkaido University)
Trump administration has vitalized U.S. economy through the tax reform in 2017. In contrast to strong economy, the conflict
between the two parties have intensified. How can this partisan conflict be suppressed through the economic revitalization
plan that deals with COVID-19?
Masahiko Hashimoto (Daiwa Institute of Research Group)
United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer manages Trump administration’s trade policies. His strategy that takes
a different path from the post-1990s era where globalization was praised and focuses on conservative policies from theperspective of protecting workers have been convincing, not just for Republican supporters but also for some Democrats.
Naoatsu Aoyama (Asahi Shimbun)
The behavioral principles of both Trump and Biden may be like the two ends of a pendulum of “Americanism,” which includes
both isolationism and interventionism. On the other hand, local governments, business, and civil society are moving on thebasis of constructivism, which may open up new possibilities.
Katsuhiko Mori (International Christian University)