The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project"Roadmap to Low-Carbon World''
Group 4: Barriers and opportunities: approaches to sensitive LCS sectors: (Feb. 14th 2008)

Lifestyle in transport sector

Keisuke Matsuhashi
Senior Researcher, Transport andUrban Environment Section, NIES

1

Scenario: Penetration of Hybrid Electric Vehicles（HEV）

Emission(Mt-CO2 )CO2 emissions
reduced by 45%
by hybridization.

BAU:+19%+19％

300

±0％
HEV:±0%Emission(Mt-CO2)
300 air/rail/water

250

250

200200150

150

100

1005050

Baseline scenario

LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars(BEV)
Light passenger cars
Buses

HEV scenario

CO2 emissions （Mt-CO2）

Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars

20182020

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

1998
2000

1996

1994

1990
1992

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2004
2006

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

LDVs(HEV)

00
1990

air/rail/water

LDVs(HEV)LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars
Buses
Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars

2

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
CO2TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞=×× ∑ ⎜⎜××⎟⎟
capitacapita
TransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]
3

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2.50

Tokyo Met.

2.00

Nagoya Met.

Osaka Met.

Other Areas

1.50

Freight vehicles

1.00

Passenger cars

0.50
0.00
[t/year]
0
CO2 per capita

2000

4000

6000

8000 10000 12000 14000

Accumulated population [million]

Each Area is categorized in
1. Major cities
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties

Passenger car emissions(t-CO2/capita)

4

LCS2050: a draft vision (Regional emissions)
Transport CO2 [t/capita/year]

Technological&
behaviouralcountermeasures

2.00

1.50

1990

Depopulation& shift fromrural to urban

Metro Urban
0.00
02000

Provincial Rural

0.50

Provincial Urban

2050

Metro Suburb

1.00

4000
6000
8000
10000
Accumulated population [ten-thousand]

12000

14000

Index of the regional categories
Metro
Provincial

RuralUrban
5

New concepts for personal mobility

Yamaha:EC-02
the Segway Human
Transporter

Toyota:i-REAL

Yamato: Power-assisteddelivery bicycle

Kawamura cycle KE(catalog information)

6

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

Picture of EST3 (Combination)
Utilization ofBiomass Energy

Shifting to Bicycle
and Walking

More Energy
Efficient Mode

Shifting toRailways
Utilization of
Telecommunication
Tools

Popularization ofFCEVs

Wind-generated
Electricity

7

LCS2050: a draft vision
Metro
Urban
Compact△less roomneighborhood for improve.

Metro
Suburb

Provincial
Urban

Provincial total
Rural○○○Compact

Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation

Settlement

Compact city △City center ×
renewal△City center ×
renewal×passenger△freight△Park &Improve load
efficiency△Utilize△Utilize△Enhancesmall vehicles

small vehicles

sharing◎Urban◎Urban○local mode○local mode

modemode△less room○○○

Improve fuelconsumption
Low carbon
energy○LRT△van pool,

Enhancepublic transit

Ride etc.

shared taxi

×for improve217->63Mt
To 1990- 71%
Index:◎: - 30%○: - 20%△: - 10%
×: no room※Freight andregionaltransports are
to beconsidered.

pop(million)

46→45

15→1027→25

35→15

124→95t-CO2/capita

1.27→0.56

1.72→0.62

2.04→0.68

2.20→1.01

1.76→0.67

8250

The share of thereduction in a draft 200
LCS2050 vision

CO2 in 1990

Population decreace- 70%
Urbanization

150

Compact neighborhoodand city
Enhance public Transit

100Improve load efficiency,
fuel consumption andcarbon intensity

50
CO2 in 2050
09LCS2050:
draft vision
LCS2050:
Policyarecommendations
MetroUrban

MetroSuburb

Compact△less roomneighborhood for improve.

ProvincialUrban○ Redevelopment○
Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation

Provincial total
Rural○Compact
Settlement

Preferentialtax△City center×treatments
renewalrenewalApprove△△Park&○LRTvan pool,×passenger
Infrastructure, Subsidy
sharedtaxi
Ride etc.
shared taxi

Compact city △City center ×
RenewalEnhancepublic transit△freight

Improve load
efficiency△Utilize△Utilize△Enhance×

Improve fuelconsumption◎UrbanLow carbon
energySettingdevelopments△lessroom goals○ for Engineering○○

small vehicles
smallofvehicles
sharing
Regulationfuel consumption

Prefential tax treatments

modefor improve◎Urban○local mode○local mode

mode

Provision of infrastructures

217->63Mt
To 1990- 71%
Index:◎: - 30%○: - 20%△: - 10%
×: no room※Freight andregionaltransports are
to beconsidered.

pop(million)

46→45

15→10

27→25

35→15

124→95t-CO2/capita

1.27→0.56

1.72→0.62

2.04→0.68

2.20→1.01

1.76→0.67

10