April 2012
NIRA Report

Status of Recovery and Current Problems inThree Disaster-hit Prefectures – What the Data Tells Us- Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction following the Great East JapanEarthquake (March 2012 Update) -Executive Summary

A year has now passed since the devastating Great East Japan Earthquake. On thisoccasion, NIRA has once again revised its Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction
following the Great East Japan Earthquake, which were formulated to provide an
overall picture of the status of recovery and reconstruction in the affected areas. Inaddition to offering a detailed analysis of the current status of the three affected
prefectures using these indexes, this report makes proposals in relation to datacollection and analysis as a means of enhancing crisis management systems foremergencies.
Chapter 1

The Status of the Three Affected Prefectures as shown by theIndexes for Recovery and Reconstruction

Taking the region struck by the tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake (37cities, towns and villages / Three prefectures) as their focus, NIRA’s Indexes for
Recovery and Reconstruction following the Great East Japan Earthquake synthesize anumber of indicators which show trends in the status of recovery and reconstruction.
The indexes for recovery and reconstruction are made up of two different indexes: Anindex expressing the status of recovery of basic infrastructure, providing acomprehensive overview of the status of recovery of infrastructure supporting daily lifein the affected region, and an index expressing the status of activity, providing an
understanding of the status of production, consumption, distribution, and other essential
activities over time. In both cases, figures for the period immediately prior to theearthquake and tsunami are considered as 100.
Looking at the index expressing the status of recovery of basic infrastructure in thethree prefectures, we find that that the improvement in figures lost pace from
August-September onwards. Figures for Fukushima Prefecture have remained at a lower
level than those for Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures as a result of the effects of the nuclear
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accident. It will be essential to make further progress in the clearing of debris and theprovision of insurance payments in order to ensure that there are no impediments toefforts by victims of the disaster to reconstruct their own lives. Figures for indexes suchas removal of debris, recovery of railroads, and provision of loans, which are given
impetus by the implementation of recovery plans and the formulation of land use plans,remain at a low level.
Figure 1

Trends in index expressing status of recovery of basic infrastructure(Period immediately before earthquake = 100)

*Figure 1-1 in report.

The index expressing the status of activity in the three prefectures shows that while
improvement has been continuous for Miyagi Prefecture, since last fall the course of
progress has fluctuated in Iwate Prefecture and Fukushima Prefecture. Consumption has
returned to pre-earthquake levels, but there has been insufficient recovery in production.
Production in the mining and manufacturing industries has not recovered topre-earthquake levels, and recovery in the fisheries catch is also slow. In addition, thefact that there is no worsening in figures for the number of company bankruptcies andthe number of job seekers can be pointed to as a policy effect. When systemic measures
are no longer applied, there is a strong possibility that there will be a worsening in thesefigures.

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Figure 2

Trends in index expressing status of activity*Figure 1-3 in report.

The index expressing recovery of basic infrastructure by city, town and village
demonstrates an overall stagnation against the situation indicated by the previous update.
The level of recovery of cities, towns and villages is affected by the level of recovery ofrailroads, the rate of removal of debris and the rate of disposal of debris.
Looking at the 10 municipalities in which the level of recovery is highest, we find thatthey can be classified into: 1) Cities, towns and villages in which overall progress
towards recovery is steady (Rifu and Matsushima in Miyagi Prefecture); 2) Cities,towns and villages in which overall progress towards recovery is steady, but in which
progress in disposal of debris is poor in comparison to other indicators (Sendai, Natori,Shiogama and Iwanuma in Miyagi Prefecture, and Iwaizumi
and Miyako in Iwate Prefecture); and 3) Cities, towns and villages in which progress
towards recovery is steady, but in which the level of recovery of railroads and the levelof disposal of debris is poor in comparison to other indicators (Hirono and Kuji in IwatePrefecture). It is clear that the recovery of railroads and the disposal of debris represent
important factors even in cities, towns and villages in which recovery is making
progress overall.

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Chapter 2

Status of Recovery and Problems by Prefecture

Iwate Prefecture• The pace of recovery of basic infrastructure has slowed. No recovery bubble isapparent, and the employment situation in coastal areas is severe.
• Index of industrial production is down by around 10% against pre-earthquake figures,
while the fishing industry is still on its way towards recovery. Some businesses havechosen to close due to damage to fishing harbors and the problem of finding successors.
• In future, it will be important, while maintaining a focus on increasing the number ofjob seekers, to offer extensive support to small- and medium-sized enterprises to enable
them to revitalize their activities. At the same time, it will also be important to provide
personnel support for administrative positions to enable the steady implementation ofreconstruction plans.
Figure 3 Iwate Prefecture fisheries catch on the path to recovery* Figure 2-4 in report.

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Miyagi Prefecture• Demand for reconstruction is increasing rapidly, centering on public works projects.
The employment situation is also improving.
• The recovery of supply chains in coastal areas is still ongoing. The speed of recovery
in the agricultural, forestry and fisheries industries is also slow.
• It will be essential to implement policy measures with a priority on those which will
stimulate the recovery of production among private enterprise and help to ensure
employment in the region. It will also be important to respond to a shortage ofadministrative personnel.
Figure 4

Slow recovery in production in the mining and manufacturing industries in Miyagi Prefecture*Figure 2-6 in report.

Fukushima Prefecture• In addition to the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami, the nuclear accident
has had a powerful impact, and the pace of recovery of basic infrastructure is slow.
• Public works projects are driving recovery and consumption and employment haveachieved a firm footing, but growth is weak, and factors causing concern for the futureremain.
• The agricultural, forestry and fisheries industries and the tourism industry havesuffered devastating effects. In addition to efforts to contain the nuclear accident,
initiatives to promote the entry of new companies into the prefecture will be important.

5Figure 5 Increase in number of young people from Fukushima Prefecture living outside prefecture*Figure 2-7 in report.

Chapter 3

Towards Reconstruction and Recovery Policy based on
Statistical and Other Data

To ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of policy for the promotion of recovery froma disaster, it will be essential to position statistical and other data as the cornerstone ofpolicy formulation. Because Japan’s present statistical system is not able to respond to
the situation following a major disaster, special rules should be established in advance.
For example, a nationwide system might be established by means of which local
municipalities share information by providing statistical data to the central government
in the event of a disaster, or active use might be made of work-related statistics. In
addition to its collection, the necessity for interpretation and evaluation of this statisticaland other data should be emphasized.

NIRA Report

Status of Recovery and Current Problems in Three Disaster-hit Prefectures– What the Data Tells Us- Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction following the Great East Japan Earthquake(March 2012 Update) The Japanese version of the full report: http://www.nira.or.jp/pdf/1106report.pdfⓒ 2012 by National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA)

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