Global Challenges towards a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development (SD)Introduction

Nov. 8, 2006
UNFCCC COP12/MOP2
UNON, Nairobi

Shuzo Nishioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies, JapanCCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan

Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)

5.0

5

GHG-475ppm

年
Year

GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm

GHG-650ppm

Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric
GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.
(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

0年
YearBaU

650
550
500

50% reduction
20500.0

GHG
475ppm2040

GHG: Greenhouse gases

1020301.0152020GHG475ppm

BaU

2010

475

20

2000

2.0

Global GHG emissions

1990

650
550
500

3.0

GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq)

BaU

Temperature raise(global average)

温室効果ガス排出量 (二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)

4.0

25

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Global mean temperature increase
気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)(oC above thepre-industrial level)“Low-carbon societies are necessary toavoid dangerous climate change.”Low Carbon Japan: 2050

脱温暖化
2050

NIES ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ （２００４－２００８） 60 researchers
Global Environmental Research Programme
http://2050.nies.go.jp

Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050
What will be the image of the LC society?
How to attain the goal?
How to change energy demand /supply structure?

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
and Target

6$200/t-C scenarioUS5

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4
UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term vision

Germany

2FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is keyJapan 2050
scenario

W orldChina

2050202020102000

1990

1980

2040

IB1India0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA22030

11970

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

7Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

The first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research Project“Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyo
54 participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada

A second workshop will be held in UK, June 2007

Toward a Low-Carbon Society,we need to– take actions that are compatible with the principles ofsustainable development, ensuring that the development
needs of all groups within society are met;
– make an equitable contribution towards the global effort tostabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide andother greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous
climate change through deep cuts in global emissions;– demonstrate high levels of energy efficiency, use of lowcarbon– energy sources and production technologies, andsustainable land use practices;– adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that areconsistent with low levels of GHG emissions.

Programme:
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
National and Global Cooperation to Achieve LCS through SD
David Warrilow (Defra, UK)

Panel discussion :SD-PAMs
Stanford Mwakasonda (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Renewable Energy
Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)
Technology RD&D
CommentJiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)

Robert Dixon (IEA)
Open Discussion

Jonathan Pershing (WRI)