TOWARDS LOW CARBON
SOCIETY: FOREST SECTOR
Rizaldi Boer
Laboratory of Climatology
Bogor Agricultural University (IPB-Bogor)
E-mail: rizaldiboer@gmail.com

Prolog
USA

20
CAN, AUS.
& RoK

15105Japan

China

Vietnam

Emission per capita(t CO2)

25

Malaysia

EU-High
EU-Low

LCD
Thailand

Toward LCS
Brazil????

0010000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per cap (PPP US$)• Emission per capita has linear relationship with GDP/Cap.
• Can we maintain our emission low when level of ourwealth improved?

To avoid dangereous impact of climatechange ~ the increase in mean global
temperature should be kept below 2oC(Source: Meinshausen, 2005).

Global GHG Emission
100Redrawn from WRI andCAIT data of 2000:Share (%)

80

CO2 LULUCF
F gases
N2OCH4
CO2 from fossil fuel

60

40

20

0
Developed
Countries

Energyconservation

Developing
Countries

Least Developed
Countries

REDD and Sink
Ehancement

The less developed acountry the higheremission rate from
LULUCF, the moredeveloped a country thehigher emission rate fromthe use of fossil fuels

7000

Total Em is s ion w ith LU C F(M t C O 2)

Total Em is s ion W ithout LU C F(M t C O 2)

Indonesia Emission Compare with
Other Countries
USA

6000
China

5000
4000
3000

EU-Low

2000
India

1000

CAN, AUS.
& RoK
Malay
sia

00JapanEU-High

USA

5000

China

4000

FI, TT, HRD

3000

Indonesia
EU-Low

2000

BrazilIndia

1000`CAN, AUS.
& RoK

EE&TI

Japan
EU-High

Malay
sia

0

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per cap (PPP US$)

6000

0

Source: Based on datafrom UNDP (2007)

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per cap (PPP US$)

Concept on green economic growth (ecological quality)? If yes how we do it ?
Can we give price for UER (Unilateral Emission Reduction) not bothering too
much with additionality ~ benchmark? CDM Reform? Can we increase pollution
tax and use the money to assist developing countries to accelerate theachievement of LCS?

Forest transition
Forestcover

1. Triggers(road)

2. Reinforcing loops(local demand, infrastr, capitalaccum, pop dynamics)

3. Stabilizing loops(off-farm jobs, forest
scarcity etc)

Time
Undisturbed
forests

Forestfrontiers

Forest/agric.
mosaics

Forest/plantations/agric. mosaics
Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)

Needassistants

Forest transition: Region
Forestcover

PNG, DR Congo
Indonesia,
BrazilChina,
Costa Rica

India,
Bolivia

Time
Undisturbed
forests

Forestfrontiers

Forest/agric.
mosaics

Forest/plantations/agric. mosaics

Source: Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)Forest transition: Indonesia
ForestcoverPapua

Kalimantan
Java?
SumatraTime
Undisturbed
forests

Forestfrontiers

Forest/agric.
mosaics

Forest/plantations/agric. mosaics

Source: Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)

10000Emission (Mt CO2)

80
70

Huge fires
normally occur in
El-Nino years

Max

8000

With addition emission6000
from forest fire(including peat lands), level
4000 of per capita
emission from Indonesian is almost
the sameMin2000
as developed countries

605040China

BrazilEU25
AfrikaGermanBelandaSingapur

Australia

Unit Emirat

0USA
New Zealand

10

Source: Baumert et al, 2005

06

2005

04

2003

20

2002

2020

NegaraDvg.Cs
Dunia
World01

2000

NegaraMaju
Ded.Cs19209998

Indonesia
India

1930

1997

0

Qatar

Emisi
per kapita(ton(tonCO2e).
Percapita
emission
CO2e)

Per capita Emission in 2000

National Target for REDD and Sink
Enhancement
Land Rehabilitation
Avoid Deforestation dan degradation
Combating illegal logging and forest fire

Target (Million Ha).

2520
15
1050
2007-20092009-20122012-2025

2026-2050

An ambisious target (funding for land/forest rehabilitation only
about 11 trilions or about 1.20 billion USD) ~ 2-4 million ha

GHG Sequestration and Emission
Projection for LUCF in Indonesia
1,400Emission

Programmatic CDM

Sequestration

1,000
800

Polution taxes,
DNS, CSR etc

600
IFCA works on REDDI

400
200

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

Million ton CO21,200

REDD STUDY IN INDONESIA
Baseline

ReducedDeforestation

Monitoring

Carbonmarkets ($)

How muchforest will belost in thefuture?

What can bedone to reduce
deforestation?

How can we
prove that
reduceddeforestation
as really takenplace?

Who is entitled
to sell forestry
carbon?

What would ittake toimplement it?
How muchwould it cost?
Where to startfrom?

Payment
distribution
mechanism

How willcarbonpayments be
distributed toprovideWho are thebuyers ? (Local incentives toand Global)
reducedeforestation?
How is theprice formed?- Who has alegalgive benefit tothe sellers?
entitlement toreceivepayments?
How shouldcarbon
transactions beregulated?

Challenges for REDDI
•••

•

•

Governance– Understanding the drivers of deforestation– Illegal logging and illegal trading (leakage)– Resolving central-local authorities
Payment mechanisms– Via market system: Carbon credit (various types of carbon assets)– Non-market system (additional ODA, public fund, DNS etc) ~ carbon
and other PES (biodiversity)
Payment distribution– Transparency and accountability– Efficiency and equitability
Social issues– Forest-dependence group (promote benefits for forest-dependentcommunity )– Elite capture
Legal and regulatory– Rules of the game - how to keep it simple?
– Property right issues