DIPLOMACY

Vol.37, May 2016
Contents of Features

Regional major power Brazil is shaking

Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff is at the cusp of impeachment over corruption charges and unauthorized
use of budget. What is happening to Brazil, which has to date been showing relatively stable economic
growth? This article analyzes the past three decades to find out.
Akiko Koyasu (Sophia University)

The beginning of “Team Suu Kyi” administration: Personnel choices and policies of the newadministration in Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi has become the State Counsellor of Myanmar. By having thepower to influence the president, her governing capability will be tested. The author conducts a detailed
analysis of President Htin Kyaw and other cabinet members in order to paint the future of governance in Myanmar.
Toshihiro Kudou (GRIPS)

Ken Takakura and the Chinese people: Japanese films, celebrities, and the history of their acceptance
Why was Ken Takakura overwhelmingly supported by the Chinese people? This is a story of a “miracle” that
occurred in the intersection of the acceptance of post-war Japanese film on the one hand and the changes inChinese society on the other. Will there be a “second Ken Takakura” in China, which continues to become
increasingly wealthy?
Bunpei Ryu (Waseda University)
Using the experience of developing countries in Japan: Suggestions for the next half century ofJapan Overseas Cooperation Volunteers
The Japan Overseas Cooperation Volunteers have celebrated its 50th anniversary since its inception. What
this organization has accomplished is not confined to helping developing countries with growth and increasing
mutual understandings. It would be possible to utilize the experience and knowledge, which was gained
through these activities and apply it to Japan for “regional revitalization.” This new effort for utilizing personnel
has already begun.
Toshio Ogawa (Japan Overseas Cooperation Volunteers)

FOCUS
The current phase of Middle East in turmoil
Prospects for the reorganization of “nation-state” in the Middle East:

Looking back at the 100-year history since Sykes-Picot Agreement
The current turmoil in the Middle East is occurring over several different aspects, all of which has resulted in arealignment of orders: the collapse of regional order lead by Europe; conflict between religion (and civilization);conflict among different religious sects; and criticism towards modern state system. What is the endgame of all
this movement? The author analyzes the situation through a historical lens.
Satoshi Ikeuchi (Tokyo University)

How long will “ISIS” continue?

The Jihadist movement that begun in Afghanistan has spilled over to Iraq and became “ISIS,” then established
its presence in Syria through the “Arab Spring.” By following these footsteps, this essay attempts toprognosticate how the Syrian conflict will play out.
Yutaka Takaoka (Middle East Institute of Japan)

A scenario towards Turkey’s stabilization:

Restoration of civil order, securing interests in Syria, and realizing Presidential system
Turkey is facing a crucial period, both domestically (Kurdish extremists and terrorism by IS) and internationally(Syrian conflict and the downing of Russian warplane). President Erdogan, who has secured a stable majority
in the election, intends to strengthen the basis of government, but will this work out?
Kouhei Imai (IDE-JETRO)Special Feature:

The direction of United Statespresidential electionCover Story Interview

Free Trade is the driving force for growthCharles D. Lake II (President, member of the Board of Directors, Aflac International Incorporated)
Destructiveness and inevitability of the Trump phenomenon

Trump has leaped from the back chorus to the main actor in this election cycle. This essay analyzes what may
become a “monster” through looking at organization structure of political parties and political culture.
Fumiaki Kubo (Tokyo University)
Roundtable: It is time to “re-select” Japan-US alliance
The three panelists discuss the polarization of American society, which produced the Trump-Sandersphenomena. Furthermore, a long-term strategy for “strengthening” Japan-US alliance, which is not thrown into
turmoil every time a statement is made by Trump, is sought.
Junko Tanaka (NHK)Toshihiro Nakayama (Keio University)
Yukihiro Wada (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Frequently Asked Questions on US presidential election:

The election allows us to observe changes the United States is facing

This article summarizes various useful information related to this US presidential election cycle. They include:
Introduction of main candidates and their supporters; Processes of Primary and Caucuses; Fundraising;Media strategy; Data from past presidential elections; and Explanation of what would happen if the party
convention does not end up with a single candidate with the majority of votes.
Kazuhiro Maeshima (Sophia University)

Genealogy of US political outsiders including Trump and Sanders

The existence of outsiders is not a new phenomenon in US presidential elections. They have always
functioned as a force that absorbed people’ s dissatisfaction of two main political parties. The author looks
back on history to highlight the difference of Trump and Sanders in order to elucidate the contorted nature ofUS politics today.
Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda College)

The incomplete president: “Legacy” of Barack Obama

President Obama came onto the stage with a promise of a “change” and went on to engage in numerous
reforms such as an ambitious social security policy. However, this provoked a split in the US society. On theforeign policy side, the United States is continuing its Asia rebalance but the tension between China still
remains, while US-Russia relationship, as well as the situation in Middle East, are both facing difficulties. Thisarticle looks back at the 7 years of Obama administration.
Doyle McManus (Los Angeles Times)

TREND2016
What it means to break walls and to have the freedom to move around:

Mourning the death of former foreign minister of Germany, Hans-Dietrich Genscher
Takumi Itabashi (Seikei University)

G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that lead President Obama’s visit to Hiroshima

Secretary of State John Kerry’ s visit to Hiroshima Memorial was made possible by the G7 Hiroshima Foreign
Ministers’ Meeting. Strong feelings from people in different positions, such as foreign minister Kishida or thesurvivors of the nuclear bombing, resulted in the decision for President Obama to visit Hiroshima. This essay
documents how this all came about.
Satoshi Kinoshita (Yomiuri Shimbun (Hiroshima)）