Strategy to Low Carbon Society
Barriers and Opportunities
The 3rd Japan-UK Joint Research Projecton Low-Carbon SocietyFebruary 13-15, 2008, Tokyo
Haruki Tsuchiya
Research Institute for Systems Technologies
Tokyo, JapanFebruary 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Summary
1. Energy Strategy to LCS
2. Coal use in Energy intensive industry
3. Hybrid car and Plug in Hybrid
4. Photovoltaics on learning Curve
5. Efficient light bulbs and LED
6. Energy Policies toward LCS
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Energy Strategy for Low Carbon
Society in 2050, Japan
1. Decrease energy demand to half oftoday’s level in 2050 by Efficiency
Improvement, twice or more.
2. Supply renewable energy to the half ofthe energy demand in 2050.
The CO2 emission will be nearly 1/4 ofpresent level.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Low Carbon Society in 2050, Japan
700
Energy Demand ( ＭＴＯ Ｅ ）

600
500

N ucl ea r

E f f i ci ency
Im prov em ent

Coa l

400

Ga s

300
200

Oi l

100
R enew a bl es ( H y dro,PV ,W i nd,B i om a s s )

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

0

Decrease fossil fuel consumption to half by efficiency improvement, andrenewable energy will supply to the half of demand in 2050.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Coal use in energy intensive industry・Barriers:
Coal is main fuel and raw material for Iron & Steel industry.
Cement and Paper & Pulp industry use Coal for fuels. Coal isthe cheapest fuel for production of basic materials.
・Opportunities:
Society with less material use, Enhanced material recycle.
Waste plastics are used as substitute fuels for blast furnace. Gas(and Hydrogen in the long run) will be used for iron production.
・If coal alternative be difficult, and coal will stay to play thesame role (or with CCS) even after 2050, which means theproduction of basic materials are the last CO2 emission
industries.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Opportunities:
Hybrid Car and Plug-in Hybrid
1. Engine + Electric Motor +Battery
2. 35km/gasL(Catalogue),20-22km/gasL (Real), twice Efficient.
Ordinal car 10~12km/gasL(1500cc)
3. New Infrastructure is notnecessary compared with H2.
Portable liquid fuel is excellent.
4. Plug-in Hybrid is Emerging(electricity supplied at home withlarger battery added)
Barriers: So slow diffusion.
Feebate is necessary.
February 13-15, 2008

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Toyota Prius: 670
thousands cars soldworld wide,(1997~April,2007)

Comparison of Efficient Car
Efficiency of Advanced Vehicles
Gasoline

14Hybridcar(1997)

28

Hybridcar(2003)

32
29

FCV(H2,2003)
FCV(Target)

420

1020304050

Efficiency(%)

Efficiency of Hybrid car, Plug-in hybrid and Fuel
Cell vehicle is twice or more than conventional
gasoline engine vehicle.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for SystemsTechnology

Cost ($/pW)

Future Photovoltaics Cost
16141210864202006
Grid electricity

100

200

400

800

1600

3200

6400

Cumulative Production(MW)Cost of Photovoltaics reduced to 82 % each time whencumulative production doubled in 1979-2000. (Learning Curve)
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

Hours

500

140
120
100
80
60
40
200

Incandescent
Fluorescent

0Dollars

Opportunities: Compact Fluorescent Bulb

Compact fluorescent bulb has 10 times initial cost comparedwith incandescent bulb, but economical for ¼ electricity
consumption and 6 times long life time. But it takes several ten
seconds to give lumen rated. The diffusion is not so fast.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Opportunities: Light Emitting Diode (LED)
1. High Luminosity
2. Possibility of Higher Efficiency
3. End Use Today
1) Emergency Exit Light
2) Traffic Signal(20% substituted of one million units,
80W incandescent =>20W LED)
3)Industrial Use (Image Processing, Vehicles)
4. Application to General Lighting when massively
produced.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
TechnologyBarriers: Refrigerators have been measured bymethod established 30 years ago.
Electriicty Consumption of Refrigerator(kWh/year)

ｋWh/yearJune, 2006

900800700600
5004003002001000Matsushita
Sharp
Toshiba
Sanyo
Mitsubishi
HitachiMarch, 2006
0200400600

Volume （L)Measuring method of electricity consumption of Refrigerator is updated
May 2006 as it measures by unrealistic operating conditions
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for Systems
Technology

Energy Policies
Toward Low Carbon Society
1.Promote energy efficiency improvement by
carbon tax, feebate, regulation, and subsidies toR&D. Measuring method should be reexamined.
2. Accelerated development and diffusion ofrenewable energy by purchasing policy withhigher price, green electricity and subsidies.
3. Encourage less use of basic material to decrease
coal consumption in heavy industries.
4. Start early as it will take long time.
February 13-15, 2008

Research Institute for SystemsTechnology