DIPLOMACY

Vol.39, Sep. 2016
Contents of Features

108U.S. Republicans attempt to consolidate on an “anti-Clinton” stance

Donald Trump has clenched the Republican presidential nomination, but he has yet to forge a solid footing.
This essay analyzes the complex dynamics that includes numerous wavering heavyweights at play:mainstream vs. outsiders; traditional supporters vs. new supporters; and Presidential elections vs.
Congressional elections.
Masahito Watanabe (Hokkaido University)

112 The new Prime Minister May is in charge of “cleaning up” after the Brexit vote

While the new Prime Minister May is seen favorably for her level-headedness, various countries at the G20
Summit Meeting posed her with difficult challenges. In addition to dealing with domestic challenges, it is also
the task of this new Prime Minister to fix these fissures that spread in the foreign arena as well.
Mami Mizutori (Sainsbury Institute for the Study of Japanese Arts and Cultures)

116 What comes after “Germany’s unipolar moment”: Tumultuous times begin in Europe

Is the era of “unipolar Germany” over? The author looks back at the immigration and historical changes in U.S.
and Turkey, then analyzes what the current immigration crisis will bring to Europe.
Yoko Iwama (GRIPS)

122 The power structure of “emperor” Putin and Japan-Russia relations

President Putin is conducting a dynamic foreign policy, one example of which is the early resolution of theTurkish shootdown of Russian warplane. Domestically, Putin is attempting to rejuvenate his close aides, butthere is a sense among the society at large where one “cannot say anything” against Putin. What will becomeof the Japan-Russia Summit meeting and the negotiation of the Northern Territories?
Akiyoshi Komaki (Asahi Shimbun)

131 Foreign Policy of Russia: A challenge against U.S.-European international order

Is ignoring international rules a part of Putin’s foreign policy? Russia’s quest for an international order has
created friction with the societies of U.S. and Europe. A shortcut to solving this problem is to understand theirritation felt by Russia.
Clifford Gaddy (Brookings Institution)

TREND2016
72

Changing balance of power within and outside Turkey and the Erdoğan administration’s
move towards an “iron-fist” rule

Massive arrests and detainment of involved parties are being taken place after the failed coup d'état in Turkey.
What will happen to the balance of “four divisive issues?” What will be the next step for President Erdoğan?
Fumiko Sawae (Sophia University)

80

Where is South Sudan headed?: Arbitration and distress of the international society
The risk of civil war is once again rising in South Sudan. While the regional organization and UN is moving
towards arbitration, the situation is deteriorating through heightening tensions. The author traveled to theregion to talk to the relevant parties and analyzed how our country should deal with this issue.
Daisaku Higashi (Sophia University)

88

Reports of the Sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development

92

Taiwan’s new “Go South” policy and “new immigrants”:

The first conference in Africa further deepened coordination
Junzo Fujita (TICAD Ambassador)

Taiwan DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen administration aims to unbind itself from the dependence on Chinese economy
and to realize pluralistic economic exchanges with Asia in its new economic strategy dubbed “Go South”
policy. One of the backgrounds to this movement is the existence of new immigrants from Southeast Asia.
Reiko Suzuki (Mainichi Shimbun)

Special Feature:

Post-war international order in turmoil
6

Cover Story Interview

Rio 2016 Olympic Games: “Hope and respect”

André Aranha Corrêa do Lago (Ambassador of the Federative Republic of Brazil)

12

Roundtable Handle China’s maritime assertiveness through “internationalization”
The tension is heightening in the seas of Asia, with the approaches and intrusions of Chinese ships near
Senkakus and the construction of artificial building in the South China Sea. Three experts analyze Chinese
thinking and strategy.
Yusuke Anami (Tohoku University), Bonji Ohara (The Tokyo Foundation)
and Tomoki Kamo (Keio University)

23

The scope of South China Sea arbitration: legal basis, sequence of events, and its implications

30

The situation surrounding Japan’s air defense is becoming more serious: A warning on thelack of legal infrastructure
Many are focusing on the intrusions of Chinese vessels in the East China Sea and the stability of maritime
order, but the situation in airspace is also becoming more serious. Pointing out the increase in the number ofscrambles to deal with Chinese and Russia planes and missile risks from North Korea, former JASDF Chief ofStaff Kenichiro Hokazono sends out a warning on the current situation where the risks are intensifying.
Kenichiro Hokazono (NEC / Former JASDF Chief of Staff)

36

Roundtable Thinking about international cooperation and safety
Regional risks for those involved in international assistance are increasing, as can be seen from the Dhaka
terrorist attack or the deteriorating situation in South Sudan. Why has this come about? What is necessary inorder to increase the capacity of those who operate in these areas, be it private companies or NGOs, to dealwith these situations?
Isao Itabashi (Council for Public Policy). Hiroshi Taniyama (Japan International Volunteer Center)
and Takio Yamada (MOFA)

47

How to contain the spreading terrorism

52

Various aspects of terrorism in the world as seen by local journalists

58

Protecting the security of Japanese nationals living abroad

98

Roundtable The spread of anti-globalism in the U.S. and Europe: What’s underneath the surfaceof rejecting immigrants and refugees?
Germany is rocked by the refugee issue. UK is moving towards Brexit. Unilateralism is being pushed in theU.S. Politics in developed countries are in chaos due to the collapse of the middle class everywhere aroundthe world and anxieties over everyday life by the masses. When these anxieties are channeled towards
xenophobia, stability of the world will be at peril.
Yuichi Morii (University of Tokyo), Yasushi Watanabe (Keio University)and Kensuke Takayasu (Seikei University)

The arbitration decision has been made over the territorial dispute over South China Sea. When one engages
in a detailed examination of arbitration mechanism to see the backstage of this conflict, China’s position stays
within the confines of international law. What will this new era’s international conflict resolution measures andmode of dialogue look like?
Shotaro Hamamoto (Kyoto University)

Paris, Nice, Brussels, Bavaria… “Home grown terrorism” is spreading in Europe. Why is violent Islamic
doctrine spreading in the world? Is there a way to stop the “radicalization” of the youth? What should ourcountry, which is preparing for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, be doing?
Shiro Kawamoto (Nihon University)
Many Parisians say “there are no zero-risks”: Shoko Yamaguchi
Rising anxieties over terrorism in South Germany: Toru Kumagai“American home-grown terrorists” return to their ethnic origins: Tato Takahama
Masaki Nouke (MOFA)