Towards a low carbon UK
David Warrilow
Deputy Director
Climate Energy and Ozone - Science and Analysis (CEOSA)Climate,UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
3rd Japan-UK
pWorkshop
p on Low carbon Societyy15 February 2008

IPCC estimates on how much weneed to reduce emissions
Year of ppeakemissions

Cut in 2050
global CO2emission
i icomparedto 2000 (%)

2 0 – 2.4
2.0242000 - 2015-85
85 tto -50
50

490 – 535

2.4 – 2.82000 - 2020

-60 to -30

535 – 590

2.8 – 3.2

2010 - 2030

-30 to +5<0.1

590 – 710

3.2 – 4.0

2020 - 2060

+10 to +60< 0.05710 – 855

4.0 – 4.92050 - 2080

+25 to +85

855 – 1130

4.9 – 6.1

2060 - 2090

Stabilisation
llevell(ppm CO2-eq)

Global Mean
temp
temp.
increase
at equilibrium(ºC)

445 – 490

Reduction ofaverageannuall GDP
growth rates(%)< 0.120 12

UK commitments to reduce emissions• 1992 2000 emissions same as 1990
• 1997 Kyoto Target – 12.5% 1990 to 2010
• 1997 Domestic Goal -20% for CO2• 2003 Energy White paper -60% by 2050
• 2008 Climate Change Bill
60% below 1990 levels by 2050
26 32% below
26-32%b l1990 llevels
l bby 2018/22

Summaryy of UK GHG emissions in2006 relative to 1990 (%)
WithoutTrading
Kyoto basket (-12.5%) -16.4

WithTrading-20.7

Carbon Dioxide ((-20%)) - 6.4-12.1

Methane- 53

Nitrous Oxide- 40

Industrial gases- 25

UK Carbon dioxide emissions by source:
1990-2006
United Kingdom

Road Transport

Energy Supply

Business

Residential

Other

600

500

400

300

200

10001990

1993

1996

1999

2002
Source: AEA Energy & Environment

2005

CO2 emissions by sector
Waste ManagementLand Use Change
Industrial Process
Agriculture

2006

Residential

1997

Public1990

Transport
BusinessEnergy Supply-10104090

140

CO2 emissions (Mt CO)
2190240

CO2 Gains and Challengesg• CO2 - 85% of UK GHG emissions• CO2 emission intensity down by 37% from1990 to 2006.
• Improvements seen in the buildings sector– energy efficiency gains
p modest ggrowth,, despite
p massive• Transport
increase in car use.
• Electricity supply sensitive to market
conditions and fuel switching• CO2 needs a long term price signal

UK Methane emissions source: 1990-2006
United Kingdom
6Agriculture

Landfill

1993

1996

Gas leakage

Other

Coal Mines

million tonnes
s5432
101990

1999

2002

2005

Source: AEA Energy & Environment

UK Nitrous oxide emissions by source: 19902006
United Kingdom
250
Agriculture

Industrial processes

Road transport

Other

200

thous
sand tonnes

150

100

5001990

1993

1996

1999

2002
Source: AEA Energy & Environment

2005

Greenhouse gases from UK-based
pp ginternational aviation and shipping
bunkers, 1990-2006
40

35

30

International aviation bunkers

million tonnnes (carbon dioxide equivalent)

25

20

15

International shipping bunkers
10501990

1993

1996

1999

2002
Source: AEA Energy & Environment

2005

Other ggases and international aviation• Non CO2 gases 15% of emissions.
Significant gains possible – but residualemissions related to land use/agricultureg• International aviation is an additional 5.3%of UK emissions – stronggg
growth a g
globalphenomenonProjected UK greenhouse gas
emissions to 2020
• Domestic CO2emissions expected
to be down by 16.2%• 2010 emissions ofall gases expected tobe 23.6% below 1990
llevelsl•Energy review gives
CO2 reductions ofbetween 21.6 and25.1% by 2020

The Climate Changeg Bill

New legislation currently before parliament
to commit the UK to achieving major
reductions in CO2 emissions

Key elements of the Climate Change BillTargets

CO2 emission reductions of at least 60% by 2050
and 26-32% by 2020,
through action in the UK and abroad

Budgets andaccountability

Five-year carbon budgets to set trajectory
Annual progress reporting to ParliamentCommittee on
Climate Change

New independent body to advise Government on
carbon budgets and least cost savings

Measures to reduceemissions

Powers to introduce emissions trading schemes
quickly and easily, including new Carbon
Reduction C
Commitment. Bio-fuels. Waste.

Keyy elements of the Bill ((1):) Targetsg• Put 2050 target (to reduce CO2 by “at least 60%”)
andd 2020 ttargett (26(26-32%32% reduction
d ti iin CO2) iintot llaw
• New Committee on Climate Change will advise onwhether the 2050 target should be tightened up to80%• Committee will also look at the implications ofincluding:• Other ggreenhouse ggases;;• Emissions from international aviation and shippingKey elements of the Bill (2): Five-year budgets
and annual accountability• 5-year carbon budgets, set three periods ahead on advice
ffromtheth Committee
Citt on Climate
Cli t Change
Ch• Transparent budget-setting process: Committee advice andGovernment decision must both be published• Annual reporting to Parliament by independent Committee,
with annual Government response• Annual reporting to Parliament on all UK greenhouse gasemissions,, including
g from international aviation and shipping
pp gKey elements of the Bill (3): Committeeon Climate Change• Independent body to advise on the level of carbon budgets• Committee will take account of scientific, economic, social
and international factors• Advisory
Ad irole
l on ttargets
t anddbbudgets
d t• Strengthened independence (will appoint its own staff)• IncreasedId ffunding
di ffor analysis
l iKey elements of the Bill (4): Measures toreduce
demissions
i i• Enabling powers to introduce future trading schemes to help
tackle climate change• First use of these powers will be to introduce the new
C b R
CarbonReduction
d ti CCommitmentitt• Also taking powers in the Bill to enhance the RenewableTransport Fuels Obligation (which will increase use oftransport bio-fuels)• Providing a power to pilot local authority incentives forhousehold waste minimisation and recycling

Current key issues as debated in Parliament• General support for the Bill, but calls to strengthen
it…
• Level of the 2050 target, and whether it should
be CO2-only• Include emissions from international shippingand (especially) aviation immediately• Binding quantified limits on the use of overseas
credits to be set now• AnnualAl milestones,il t
sectoralt l ttargets,tstrengthened Government accountability

Key
y lessons from the UK experiencep• Long-term goals and policies should be based onevidence• It is possible to reduce emissions while theeconomyyg
grows• This requires a rich mix of policies andmeasures.
• Giving
Gi i carbon
b a price
i iis a kkey element
lt offsuccess – trading is efficient• Government regulation gives a clear long term
direction to industry and society