Creating a Vision – Cutting Emissions 30% by 2020
A Reduction Scenario and Policy Proposals
for Japan’s Residential and Commercial Sectors【Summary】
September 2006

KIKO Network

KIKO Network has been carrying out a project aimed at achieving by 2020 carbon
dioxide emissions from Japan’s residential and commercial sectors that are 30% lower
than 1990 levels. A report on the results of this project was published in September
2006: a summary follows.

1. Project aims
Climate Change is already having a significant impact on humankind andnatural ecosystems, but to prevent even more disastrous damage in the future, the net
rise in global temperatures must be kept to below 2 degrees Celsius compared topre-industrial levels. To achieve this, industrialized countries need to reduce theirgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to levels about 60%-80% lower than 1990 levels by
2050. A society that can achieve the transitional goal of a “30% reduction” needs to berealized as soon as possible. This is the rationale for our choice of 2020 as the targetyear.
This project aims to realize 30% reduction of GHGs emissions from 1990
levels by 2020 in Japan, particularly focusing on the residential and commercial sectors
greatly increasing emissions of CO2 since 1990, which emissions reflect our life style or
the way of working. To realize it we offer a portrait of a society that could actuallyachieve a 30% reduction, describing a scenario and suggesting policies and measuresappropriate for creating such a society.

12. Emission trends in Japan’s residential and commercial sectors
CO2 emissions from Japan’s residential sector in fiscal 2004 were 31.5%
greater than in 1990, amounting to over 168 Million t-CO2. To a certain extent, trends inthe CO2 emissions intensity of electricity can be considered a contributing factor to thisincrease, but the major factor has been the increase in the number of households – a
20.5% increase over 1990. Also, electricity’s share of total energy consumption has
grown consistently, as a result of increasing acquisition of electronic devices andequipment. As for housing, 40% - 50% of existing detached houses were built prior to1980, and it is unlikely that new housing construction will grow significantly in future,
meaning that housing stock replacement rates may weaken.
CO2 emissions from commercial sector in fiscal 2004 were 227 million t-CO2,37.9% greater than in 1990. The area of occupied building space and energy consumed
by this sector have both increased greatly since 1990; with growth rates for department
stores, supermarkets, theaters and other places of amusement have been especiallyhigh. In the retail sector, specialty supermarkets and other supermarkets located in thesuburbs have grown remarkably in terms of both the number of stores and amount offloor space. Energy consumption for electricity equipment per unit area of floor space isalso on an upward trend. This is thought to be a result of the introduction of ITtechnology.
Table 1

Rates of CO2 Emission Increase for Japan’s Residential and Commercial Sectors
FY 1990 (Mt-CO2)

FY 2004 (Mt-CO2)

Rate of Increase

Residential

127

168

31.5%

Commercial, etc.

164

227

37.9%

3. The “Baseline Case” - a business-as-usual scenario for 2020
We calculated a business-as-usual “Baseline Case” scenario for 2020 as astandard to compare with the alternative “Minus 30% Case.” The model used is basedon figures from 2000. After breaking down each energy source by use, energy
consumptions per unit were drawn up for all the housing elements relevant to energy
consumption, and for each type of business and each type of house or building. Indrawing up the Baseline Case, the assumption is of an absence of any remarkablechange consistent with present norms through to 2020. Quantitative changes in thenumber of households, in floor space occupied by businesses, etc., are based on
estimates found in the literature, while also assuming the implementation of energy
conservation and other measures found in the Japanese government’s Kyoto Protocol
Targets Achievement Plan.
Estimate results show the residential sector consuming 28% more energy thanin 1990, and emitting 21% more CO2, and the commercial sector consuming 60% more2

energy and emitting 42% more CO2. Combining the two sectors yields significant
increases, with energy consumption 54% higher and CO2 emissions 32% higher than in1990.

4. Vision of a society able to achieve a 30% reduction
A more hopeful portrait of society in 2020 would be one where working styles
would be more diverse, e.g. “work sharing,” and where increased leisure time and thematuring of civil society would help foster more gentle, undemanding behavior in a wide
diversity of family and local community contexts. In this connection, society would needto achieve a smooth transition to work activities that conform to environmental
constraints and still provide a stable economy, allowing lifestyles that place greater
emphasis on non-work interests, leisure and finding meaning in life. Such a society
would encourage a re-awakening to our connections with nature and the desire toprotect the global environment. Building this kind of society would also allow us toachieve a 30% reduction.
Possible approaches to the specifics of achieving a 30% reduction ingreenhouse gas emissions will need to include the following: efforts to suppress
resource waste and achieve a transition from a mass-consumption society to one thatcan be satisfied with utilizing existing stocks; concentrated application of know-how andcreativity to the task of eliminating present energy wastage and losses; maximum
utilization of the abundant benefits of renewable energy sources to secure supplies ofsafe, low-risk, non-fossil fuel and non-nuclear energy; conversion to lifestyles that seeka quality of life that is compatible with environmental protection; development ofcommunities that are molded to fit the particularities of their location; and developmentof new manufacturing and service businesses that meet the needs of the times.

5. The “Minus 30% Case” – a significant reduction scenario for 2020
In order to create a portrait of a society that could achieve a 30% reduction, theKIKO project calculated estimates for its proposed “Minus 30% Case” scenario. In
contrast to the assumptions made regarding the overall continuation of trends inemissions growth in the Baseline Case, assumptions made for the Minus 30% Case
posited the most vigorous possible introduction of measures that would be both
appropriate and effective in ensuring emission reductions within the time available up to2020, and assuming that society adopts the goal of becoming capable of a 30%
reduction. The assumptions were based on measures that would bring about
improvements in the residential and commercial sectors, such as significant
improvements in the equipment capacity and efficiency of homes and other buildings,appropriate controls on energy demand and maximum use of renewable energy, as well3

as measures such as encouraging people to choose living quarters that match theirlifestyles, regulation of commercial activity, and curtailing working and business hours tolevels appropriate to society’s future evolution. Estimates were also based on theassumption that measures would be taken to reduce CO2 intensity of electric power
supplied (see Table 2).
Table 2

Measures Assumed in the Minus 30% Case

Type of Measure

Assumption

Equipment efficiency improvement

Definitive prevalence of highest-efficiency models

Home & building capacity increase

Prevalence of buildings that meet or exceed next-generationenergy conservation standards

Energy demand management systems

Prevalence of HEMS, BEMS, etc.

Maximum use of renewable source

Use of photovoltaics, solar heating, biomass heating

Reconsideration

ofactivity

appropriate to the social visionlevelsReconsideration of lifestyle-appropriate housing,regulation/curtailment of commercial floor space & working
hours

Electric power supply

Activation of power generation sources in order ofhigher-efficiency & lower CO2 emission; phasing-out of nuclear
power within 30 years

Estimates showed that the combined emission reduction effects of all thesemeasures would result in the residential sector consuming 28% less energy andemitting 43% less CO2 than in 1990, and the commercial sector consuming 4% moreenergy but emitting 20% less CO2 than in 1990. Taken together, the residential andcommercial sectors would consume 10.7% less energy and emit 30.5% less CO2 thanin 1990, thus realizing the goal of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by2020.
Diagram 1

Estimates for CO2 emissions from Japan’s residential sector

180
160

Residential+ 21% over 1990

140

[Million t-CO2]

120
100

-43% from 1990

80
60402001990

2020 Baseline Case2020 Minus 30% Case

4

Diagram 2

Estimates for CO2 emissions from Japan’s commercial sector

250

Commercial+ 42% over 1990

[Million t-CO2]

200-20% from 1990

150

100

5001990

Diagram 32020 Minus 30% Case

Estimates for CO2 emissions from Japan’s residential and commercial sectors+32 % over 1990

400
350

2020 Baseline Case

Residential &Commercial[Million t-CO2]

300
250

-30.5% from 1990

200
150
100500

表319902020 Baseline Case2020 Minus 30% Case
CO2 削減量の内訳（家庭（左）・業務（右））Table 3 Breakdown of CO2 reductions (Residential – L, Commercial – R)
CO2 reduction vol.
1000t-CO2
Better equipment efficiency
Air conditioner (heating & cooling)
Air conditioner (cooling only)
Space heater (gas)Space heater (oil)Water heater (gas)Water heater (oil)Gas cook stove
Refrigerator
Television
VCR
Heated toilet seat
Fluorescent light
Other electronic devices
Incandescent light
High-efficiency water heaterHome energy conservation
Energy demand management
Natural energy
Photovoltaic
Solar heatingBiomass
Activity level measuresLower CO2 emission per unit of electricity
Total

4586
51
16142
465
102
125
6,764
2,143
257
269
597
2,219
591
8,073
7,502
764
24,127
11,100
1,028
4,716
6,346
81,983

CO2 reduction
vol. 1000t-CO2

Share
5.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.2%
8.3%
2.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
2.7%
0.7%
9.8%
9.2%
0.9%

Better eqipment efficiency
Heating/cooling equipment

4,263

6.3%

Copy machine

44

0.1%

Fluorescent light

2,831

4.2%

Transformer

770

1.1%

Vending machine

277

0.4%

Freezer, refrigerator, showcase

1,105

1.6%

Incandescent light

3,687

5.4%

Building energy conservation

11,837

17.5%

471

0.7%

Energy demand management

1,434

2.1%

Natural energy
Photovoltaic

5,571

8.2%

Solar heating

395

0.6%

Biomass

2,102

3.1%

BEMS

29.4%
13.5%
1.3%
5.8%
7.7%
100.0%

Cogeneration

395

0.6%

17,60426.0%

Lower CO2 emissions per unit

15,044

22.2%

Total

67,829100%

Activity level measures

5ShareDiagram 4

Breakdown of CO2 reductions in the Minus 30% Case

Increase coal use case
+45% over 1990

26%450Equipment-related
measures400[Million t-CO 2 ]350

House & Building measures

Baseline Case
+32% over 1990

300

13%

250

2%

20030% lessthan 1990

150

Energy demand
management
Renewable energy

30%

10050

New energy (cogeneration)
0.3%

2020

年00
2095
191990015%

Activity level measures

14%

Electric power supplymeasures

Approx. 1.5 Million
t-CO 2

6. Policies and measures for achieving a 30% reduction
The Japanese government’s existing policies and measures lack acomprehensive conceptual foundation and its policy planning process is less thanrational. Because the policies needed to back up successful measures are presently
weak, they will prove incapable of inducing major reductions in the residential andcommercial sectors unless there are significantly improved. To achieve a 30% reduction,
policies and measures that encourage maximal deployment of existing technologythat improve stock efficiency will certainly be necessary. Policies and measures thatencourage the release of specific, practical information and the significantly
wide-ranging adoption of renewable energy sources will also be essential.
As detailed in Table 4, progress is needed towards the establishment andmandatory enforcement of new home and other building standards that aim at an overalllevel of efficiency achieved through better insulation and improved equipment andcomprehensive energy conservation measures should be incorporated in all newconstruction. For existing home buildings, mandatory insulation retrofitting should beintroduced based on comprehensive information about the efficiency of the existingbuilding stock. To encourage the introduction and promotion of energy-conservation
technology in the residential and commercial sectors, equipment and appliance6efficiency should be further upgraded and an “energy efficiency commitment (EEC)”
with mandatory energy saving goals should be required of energy suppliers. To
encourage the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources, stable purchaseprices should be guaranteed by establishing a purchasing system of fixed prices for
power produced by renewable energy sources (feed-in-tariff system), and also
regulations on the CO2 emissions per unit of hot water supply and per unit of floor
space are required. To encourage the use of renewable energy heat sources (solarheating, biomass heating), a “green heat certificate” system should be introduced.
In addition, to provide economic incentives for the development and adoption of
all kinds of products, activities, energy sources, etc. that produce relatively less CO2, acarbon tax will be essential. This will need to be integrated into all aspects of society inorder to achieve results in the residential and commercial sectors.

Table 4 The major policies and measures needed
Housing & building measures (new construction)

Adoption of new, mandatory standards that aim foran overall level of efficiency achieved through bothinsulating capacity and equipment efficiency

Housing & building measures (existing stock)

Mandatory

insulation

refittingbasedonahousing/building stock efficiency information
Introducing and upgrading energy conservation

Reinforcement of Law concerning the Rational Usetechnology

of Energy (Upgrading equipment and applianceefficiency)
Introduction of an “energy efficiency commitment(EEC)” with mandatory energy saving goals requiredof energy suppliersMore widespread adoption of natural energy- Introduction of a feed-in-tariff system for electricity

sources

produced by photovoltaic and other renewableenergy sources- Regulation of CO2 emissions per unit of hot watersupply and per unit area of floor space- Popularization of renewable heating sources (solarheating, biomass heating) through a “green heatcertificate” system

Economic incentives that give relative advantage toIntroduction of a carbon tax

products, activities and energy sources, etc. that
produce less CO27

7. Conclusion
The prediction is that if we stay on our present course, by 2020 Japan’s
residential and commercial sectors will end up producing 30% more CO2 emissions
than they did in 1990. In this context, setting up the goal of a 30% reduction by 2020
might seem absurd and impossible.
However, this idea shares many features with the course towards long-term,
major emission reductions, and if the appropriate policies and measures are adopted
and all concerned entities act on a conscious commitment to achieving this goal, a 30%
reduction by the transitional year of 2020 can be considered entirely possible. In fact,
realization of the KIKO project’s Minus 30% Case does not depend on any fantasticalmeasures or as-yet-unknown technology – everything proposed could be implemented
right now, should we start following a clearly defined course of action.
However, to achieve this, the Japanese government must take stronger
measures and adopt more effective policies. In particular, stronger measures areneeded to deal with homes and other buildings, which play an important part in the
proposed Minus 30% Case. Effective national government measures will also be an
indispensable prerequisite to the popularization of energy conservation technology andthe widespread adoption of renewable energy sources. Responsible action by allconcerned entities and independent action by citizens will also be needed.
KIKO Network hopes this proposal will act as a foundation on which as manypeople as possible can build a shared vision for society in 2020. We look forward toundertaking practical activities in cooperation with a great many other people, and callfor the speedy adoption of bold government policies in pursuit of achievement of theKyoto Protocol and further emissions reductions under post-2012 framework.

KIKO NETWORKURL: http://www.kikonet.org
Contact person: Kimiko Hirata khirata@kikonet.org
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TEL:+81-75-254-1011, FAX:+81-75-254-1012, E-mail: kyoto@kikonet.org

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