AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
IIPSRIPSInstitute for International

The Japan Institute ofResearch Institute for

Policy Studies

International Affairs

Peace and Security(Secretariat)

Editor:No. 165.

Akio Watanabe

13 November 2012

Editorial Board:

NUCLEAR ENERGY IS INDISPENSABLE
FOR JAPAN'S FUTURE

Hideki Asari
Masashi Nishihara
Taizo Yakushiji

Online Publisher:
Yoshiji Nogami
President, JIIA

Yoshiyuki Kasai
Japan’s energy policy is losing its way. This past
September, the Democratic Party of Japan’s
Advisory Committee on Energy and theEnvironment put together a policy for “zero nuclearpower plants by the 2030s.” A Cabinet resolution
approving this policy was averted at the strong
request of the US, but such a policy can only betermed unbelievable and unwise.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

A stable supply of affordable, high-quality electric power is absolutely
essential for safeguarding Japanese industry and maintaining jobs and living
standards in Japan. The government has an obligation to lead the way indeveloping policies to ensure such a supply. Given the undeniable reality that
nuclear power is a vital source of electricity, it is frustrating to see politicians
abnegating their responsibilities, closing their eyes to reality and refusing to think
about it.
Although experts on nuclear power should be making full use of thelessons learned from the recent accident and staking their prestige on informing
the public that ensuring nuclear power safety is quite feasible, they remain
daunted and silent.
Electric power is the bloodstream of economic activity. Following thesuspension of nuclear power plant operations, Japan had to divert about threetrillion yen of the country’s wealth to procure additional fossil fuels in FY2011,
and the unit price for electricity has risen about 25%. This situation has growneven more serious in FY2012, with unit prices expected to rise by as much as
50%. Already slowed by the appreciating yen and rising personnel costs, theJapanese economy is rapidly losing steam in the face of higher electricity costs.
As things stand now, industry will decline, jobs will be lost, and the people will be
impoverished.
While some advocate the versatility of renewable energies, the fact isthat these energies have poor generating efficiency, and it is also doubtful thatthey could substitute for nuclear power in terms of price. How will Japan reliably
ensure affordable, high-quality electric power in the absence of nuclear power?
How will Japanese manufacturing compete on the world market without a stablesupply of inexpensive electric power? How will Japanese citizens find work andmaintain their standards of living without a robust manufacturing industry?
Politicians who refuse to face the challenge before them catering topopular sentiment will certainly set the country on the wrong course.

The

activists calling for nuclear power to be abolished and replaced by renewableenergies as well as the politicians following them bear a striking resemblance tothose who once drove the nation to war, proclaiming that “we can defeat

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

America’s material might with conviction in victory and bamboo spears,” at therisk of the country’s very existence.
Politicians convincingly declare that they will bow to the will of the people.
However, politicians should by right instead be informing and leading public
opinion. The general populace is not necessarily aware of the price to be paid forits demands, and often it is only when the public is faced with the actual
consequences that it comes to realize this price. There are countless precedents
throughout human history of countries brought down by unwise actions, while
politicians accommodated themselves to the public and experts chose to holdtheir tongues rather than dissuading the misguided.
When asked whether they agree with particular positions on energy
policy, many members of the public focus almost exclusively on the risks ofnuclear power, unaware of the price that must be paid if nuclear power isdiscarded. It would be a serious error for citizens to believe that nuclear power
can be abandoned without any change at all to their lifestyles.
Risk is an inherent part of day-to-day life, as it is of transport systems
such as automobiles, aircraft, and Shinkansen trains. As many as 5,000 people
are killed each year in automobile accidents. If an airplane crashes, thepassengers die.

Aircraft are manufactured with a design concept of avoiding

crashes, but unquestionably there are contingencies that simply cannot beanticipated.

Japan’s Shinkansen trains, too, guarantee systemic safety with adesign concept for avoiding collisions similar to that of aircraft but, though there
have been no deaths or injuries of passengers on board recorded in the 50 years
or so of Shinkansen operation, external risks such as terrorist attacks cannot becompletely eliminated. Nevertheless, people have not forsaken the convenienceof these means of transport. The bottom line is that people consider the degree
to which risk can be controlled or overcome and the level of risk they themselves
are willing to take whenever they use these systems.
Nuclear power is similar in nature. In light of the enormity of a nuclear
power plant accident, thorough safety measures must be put in place to containany damage.

Applying the lessons learned from accidents is an extremely

effective approach to establishing the world’s best safety measures. Addressing

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

rather than running away from the problem and controlling the risks of nuclear
power will open the way to a bright future for Japan, and this is possible.
The energy issue is one of life and death for Japan as it stands on theedge of a precipice. Recognizing adverse consequences only after they haveoccurred is too late and unacceptable. With the politicians calling for “zeronuclear power plants” catering to the public they should be leading and thebusiness/financial leaders and technocrats standing mute, if Japan does notwake up soon, the country will simply add a new page to the world history ofcountries that have gone down in ruin.

Yoshiyuki Kasai is Chairman, Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central).

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