February 18th 2020
Documentation for Blind Prediction Study Step 2
We thank you for accepting our invitation to participate as an analyst in the blind prediction
Step 2 for the simulation of weak motions observed at the prediction site. Your analytic
contributions will be consisted of the processed data and simulation data including therelevant parametric information. For your participation, you will be acknowledged directly
when the report is presented. However, your identity will remain masked from your specificanalytic contributions as results will be codified. The test data are consisted of unpublishedrecordings. The data were collected by the local organizing committee of ESG6 with a close
collaboration of the JR Kyushu Railway Co. and Kyushu University. We are currently at Step
2 of the study and your instructions are as follows :(1) Download the ground motion data : http://sds.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/esg6-bp/
We release 12 ground motion data at both the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO) and theprediction site (KUMA). We also release one target ground motion data (No.35 in Table 1)
only at the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO). The prediction site is the same as “the targetstation site for Blind Prediction Study Step 1”. Details of earthquakes are shown in Table 1.
The hypocenter information is from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified
hypocenter catalog, published as the Seismological Bulletin of Japan by JMA in collaboration
with the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology. Although theoriginal JMA format uses degrees and minutes, the distributed latitude and longitude units
are set to degrees by Dr. Tsuno. You can see the original JMA unified hypocenter catalog via
the HP address in the following reference list. The source mechanisms in Table 1 weredetermined by F-net of NIED. Locations of these earthquakes and these two stations areshown in Figure 1. Note that the ground motion data at the reference site (KU.KMP1; SEVO)
is recorded by unit of m/s (in velocity) and the ground motion data at the prediction site(KUMA) is recorded by unit of cm/s/s (in acceleration), to offer the raw data without any
corrections. We only extracted their DC components by using the average over the whole
duration of each record.

-1-(2) You are requested to simulate earthquake ground motion for the target earthquake at theprediction site, by any simulation techniques such as, the 1-D method, GMPE, the empiricalgreen’s function method, and the 2-D/3-D simulation. At least, acceleration data for ahorizontal component with a sampling frequency of 100Hz and the Fourier spectrum in thereliable frequency range is requested, describing the starting time and the duration in yoursimulation. A submission of two or three component data is optional but preferred. Any otherrelevant information on the parameters used in the simulation is also requested. In case oftheoretical methods, the description on the structure model used is requested.
(3) Document your parameters and results by filling the columns for each tab in the respective
Step2-waveform_r1.xlsx and Step2-Fourier spectrum_r1.xlsx template file provided by thesame site described in (1). Please also describe your procedure of simulation in one to twopage(s) of a word file within about 1000 words including up to three figures and tables.
Necessary items are listed in the template file, ex.Step2-procedure.KawaseH_r1.docx.
(4) Attach these files and send us an e-mail with your results to esg6-bp@jaee.gr.jp (pleasewrite “BP Step2 results <Surname>” in the subject). Append your surname and first name's
initial to the files containing your results, e.g., Step2-waveform.KawaseH.xlsx. Please notethat the scheduled deadline for completion of Step 2 is August 31.
(5) The participants are encouraged to submit extended abstracts of your results to the Blind
Prediction Special Session during ESG6, and present your results as posters. Please note thatthe one- or two- page document submitted with your simulation described above will be used
only for the analysis by the working group of ESG6 LOC for this blind prediction experiment.

-2-Table 1. Details of earthquakes
No.

Y.

M. D. H. M.

4Target EQ 35
4364
80
104
109
121
127
161
205
206
227

2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5

16
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
18
21
5
5
19

1347
11
0
419
8
21
10
10
2

535
23
2
1446
23
35
52
31
40
37

S.

LatitudeLongitude

Depth(km)

M

15.46
6.89
12.29
11.93
14.57
8.92
10.32
10.58
10.2
10.98
11.16
10.81
16.43

3.3
5.9
4
4.8
4.4
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.2
4
4.6
4.9
3.9

42.48 32.71633 130.80483
10.78 32.96383 131.08683
49.2 32.79733 130.81317
54.32 32.78667 130.77383
51.71 32.75833 130.77817
51.69 32.96167 131.07917
49.09 32.68717 130.77617
41.22 32.6775 130.72067
43.02 32.8695 130.87333
3.39 32.78533 130.83183
30.47 33.000333 131.134167
12.83 32.992833 131.122167
44.28 32.83133 130.81417

LatitudeLongitude Depth(km)32.9638

131.0868

532.7867
32.758332.961732.6872
32.6775
32.8695
32.7853
33.000332.9928130.7738
130.7782
131.0792
130.7762
130.7207130.8733
130.8318
131.1342
131.1222

5118588888F-net
Strike (°) Dip (°)
No information
209 ; 116 60 ; 85
No information
92 ; 248
29 ; 63
199 ; 3441 ; 50
241 ; 140 54 ; 75
276 ; 181 60 ; 82302 ; 8039 ; 59318 ; 9836 ; 61358 ; 262 65 ; 78
208 ; 116 71 ; 84320 ; 228 79 ; 84
No information

rake (°)

Mo (Nm)-174 ; -30

1.92E+17 5.5-69 ; -101-102 ; -80-161 ; -3810 ; 150-55 ; -115
-56 ; -112
-167 ; -26-174 ; -196 ; 169

8.86E+15
3.72E+15
1.18E+16
4.52E+15
4.88E+15
2.41E+15
7.14E+14
8.44E+15
1.52E+16

Target EQ
KU.KMP1; SEVO
Prediction site (KUMA)

Figure 1. Locations of earthquakes and stations(Stars denote epicenters of foreshock and mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.
Source fault planes of foreshock and mainshock by Asano and Iwata [2016] are alsoprojected.)

-3-Mw

4.6
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.6
4.8

References
Asano, K. and Iwata, T. (2016) Source rupture processes of the foreshock and mainshock inthe 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence estimated from the kinematic waveform inversionof strong motion data, Earth, Planets and Space, 68:147, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623016-0519-9.
Tsuno, S., Korenaga, M., Okamoto, K., Yamanaka, H., Chimoto, K., and Matsushima, T.

(2017) Local site effects in Kumamoto City revealed by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,
Earth, Planets and Space, 69:37, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-017-0622-6.
JapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA),

JMA

unifiedhypocenter

catalog,https://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/bulletin/index_e.html.
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), F-net (FullRange Seismograph Network of Japan), http://www.fnet.bosai.go.jp/top.php?LANG=en
Acknowledgements
We profoundly thank to Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Faculty of Science, Kyushu
University, for providing us with seismic records of KU.KMP1.
Ground motion data file
File format for ground motion data (e.g. 20160416010542.48_KUMA.txt)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Origin Time

2016/04/16 01:05:42.48

Latitude32.7163 N

Longitude130.8048 E

Depth

15.46 km

Mag.

3.3

Station CodeInstitute
Sta.Lat.

32.7756 N

Sta.Long.

130.6879 E

Height10.00 mSampling Freq.

100 HzDuration
No. of Data
Unit
Record Time

60.00 sec
6000
cm/sec/sec
2016/04/16 01:05:30

Memo.

-4-Time(sec)

NSEW

UD

0.000 -0.2243042E-01 -0.2492269E-01 -0.3738404E-02
0.010 0.6230673E-03

0.8099875E-02 0.1246135E-02

0.020 0.4984539E-02 -0.1869202E-02 0.0000000E+00
0.030 0.3738404E-02 -0.8099875E-02 -0.2056122E-01
0.040 0.1557668E-01

0.1495362E-01 -0.1993815E-01

0.050 0.3364564E-01 0.2616883E-01 0.1495362E-01…continue until the end of record…
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Terms of the use of the distributed data
We do not take any responsibility for any loss or disadvantage caused by using the data. The
data shall not be distributed to a third-party and must be downloaded by the registeredparticipants from the specified URL for their own use solely for this experiment. All
participants need to wait to use the distributed data for your specific study until the end of
the symposium or until the distributed data is made open to the society by means of apublication or DOI registration.
Additional data for your reference
We will release additional data such as, subsurface velocity profiles and a geological map inand around Kumamoto Prefecture, boring data at the prediction site, the result of thelaboratory test, and the preferred velocity model made by the local organizing committee ofESG6, on the same timing of data release for the blind prediction Step 3, which is scheduled
to be April 1, 2020.
Report of results for the Blind Prediction exercise
We plan to compile and present results and facilitate discussions for all the three steps at theESG6 Symposium during 15-17 March 2021 in Kyoto, Japan.
Deadline for submission of your results for STEP 2 and STEP 3
Please note that the deadline for submitting your results is August 31, 2020.
Deadline for abstract submission for STEP 2 and STEP 3
Please note that the deadline for submitting your extended abstracts of the simulation for Step
2 and STEP 3 is December 18, 2020.

-5-

We thank you for your interest and participation in this blind prediction study.
With much appreciation,
ESG6 Chair for Blind Prediction Step 2/3, KAWASE Hiroshi on behalf ofESG6 Local organizing committee
esg6-bp@jaee.gr.jp-6-