TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for February 2022)

While Covid-19 infection continues,
Ukraine situation follows.

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Future economy depends very much on economic sanctions
against Russia ～(Companies researched: 24,213; Valid responses: 11,562; Response rate: 47.8%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: Worsened in 41 businesses in 9 industries. Growing concerns
about soaring crude oil prices in response to the Ukraine situation.

< Overview of February 2022: Decline continues >The economic diffusion index (DI) in February 2022 was 39.9, down 1.3 points
from the previous month, and worsened for the second straight month. The
domestic economy continues to experience a slump, with a number of negative
factors such as the spread of the Omicron variant, and fuel price increases.

By size: Worsened in all sizes for the second straight month, adversely
affected by spread of the Omicron variant, etc.
By region: Worsened in all ten regions for the second straight month. The
impact of heavy snow was also a negative factor.

< Future outlook: While the economy has been steady, carefully watch
downside risks >The economy is expected to remain steady, but downside risks withincreasing geopolitical uncertainty must be watched carefully.

55
50
45
40
35
30

0
25

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1

40.7

39.2 39.9

41.5

43.1 43.9

41.2 39.9

38.9

41.8 42.3
40.1 40.6 41.1

After 3 months
After 1 month43.1 43.6

After 6 months

44.1 44.5 44.8

44.8

After 1 year

（Prediction→）

Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2021
2022
2023
Projected future DI 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5 43.1 43.9 41.2 39.9 38.9 40.1 40.6 41.1 41.8 42.3 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.5 44.8 44.8
Change from Feb.2022-1.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 4.9Upper
39.7 41.4 42.2 42.9 43.8 44.6 45.6 46.2 46.8 47.4 47.9 48.1*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.
Lower
38.0 38.9 39.0 39.3 39.7 40.1 40.7 41.0 41.3 41.6 41.7 41.6

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 2022

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theFeb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22

Previous
Month

Total

35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5 43.1 43.9 41.2 39.9

▲ 1.3

Large Firms

38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2 41.9 42.9 41.4 42.5 43.8 45.7 45.9 44.0 42.9

▲ 1.1

Small to Medium-sized Firms

35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9 38.5 40.2 38.8 39.4 41.0 42.5 43.5 40.6 39.3

▲ 1.3

Micro Firms

34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6 37.1 38.4 37.4 38.7 40.0 41.3 42.1 39.1 37.9

▲ 1.2

Ratio to theFeb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7 39.1 38.5 37.0 38.1 41.1 42.6 38.2 38.7 36.4

▲ 2.3

Finance38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5 41.7 42.8 39.7 41.5 43.0 43.3 43.8 41.9 41.6

▲ 0.3

Construction

40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0 41.6 42.7 42.5 43.7 44.7 45.4 45.2 43.3 42.5

▲ 0.8

Real Estate38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4 40.9 41.8 39.4 42.6 43.6 44.7 46.7 42.9 42.6

▲ 0.3

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed

30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6 34.0 35.5 32.8 34.1 38.1 39.6 40.8 35.4 33.4

▲ 2.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 29.3 31.0 29.3 28.2 30.2 31.4 34.1 31.6 31.7

0.1

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6 40.1 42.5 41.2 42.7 43.7 44.9 46.4 44.1 42.7

▲ 1.4

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5 34.9 37.2 36.6 36.2 39.3 41.4 42.9 40.2 36.4

▲ 3.8

Publishing,Printing

22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2 27.1 27.4 25.6 27.1 29.4 30.2 32.1 28.6 29.5

0.9

Chemical40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3 44.5 46.3 45.0 41.9 42.6 45.7 46.7 44.5 42.3

▲ 2.2

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9 43.4 46.4 45.1 43.8 44.2 45.9 46.4 44.6 43.8

▲ 0.8

General Machinery

36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2 43.7 45.9 46.6 46.2 47.2 47.8 49.1 47.7 46.7

▲ 1.0

Electrical Machinery

39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8 45.0 46.8 45.9 45.8 47.5 47.0 48.5 46.6 46.1

▲ 0.5

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3 47.1 50.6 48.2 37.6 37.7 43.4 45.6 41.6 39.9

▲ 1.7

Medical Instruments and Equipment

42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7 49.1 50.5 50.9 50.8 50.4 49.8 53.0 52.0 49.5

▲ 2.5

Other

31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0 34.1 37.6 33.9 35.3 35.5 36.9 41.1 35.9 36.1

0.2

35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0 40.6 42.7 41.5 40.7 42.1 43.6 45.1 42.5 41.2

▲ 1.3

Food,BEWerages

29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 30.7 31.3 29.1 29.8 33.0 36.9 38.2 32.7 30.1

▲ 2.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7 22.5 22.8 21.2 22.4 24.5 27.4 29.3 27.6 24.9

▲ 2.7

34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5 36.3 37.8 37.7 39.6 39.9 42.6 42.4 40.0 39.7

▲ 0.3

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6 31.4 31.2 29.2 29.6 31.8 35.0 34.2 32.7 31.9

▲ 0.8

Chemical37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7 42.0 42.4 40.7 42.2 44.2 45.3 45.3 43.2 41.9

▲ 1.3

Recycled Resources

42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4 52.0 53.7 51.4 51.8 53.4 52.9 52.8 45.8 50.5

4.7

Mining Products

33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5 38.7 41.1 41.1 41.6 41.6 43.2 45.2 42.3 40.5

▲ 1.8

Machinery,Equipment

36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0 40.7 43.1 41.3 41.8 42.6 44.4 44.7 42.8 42.4

▲ 0.4

Other

31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2 35.5 36.6 33.0 34.4 37.8 39.7 40.1 36.3 33.7

▲ 2.6

33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3 36.8 38.3 36.6 37.6 39.1 41.3 41.8 39.0 37.7

▲ 1.3

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 2022

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theFeb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6 34.9 37.5 36.0 33.1 38.0 39.7 41.1 36.5 36.3

▲ 0.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2 20.3 25.0 21.4 21.5 27.9 34.1 40.0 31.8 23.8

▲ 8.0

Drugs,Sundries

32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3 31.4 32.5 33.3 34.6 45.8 37.5 38.4 36.0 32.1

▲ 3.9

Furniture

36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6 39.8 36.9 34.6 32.2 35.6 34.5 42.9 35.6 29.8

▲ 5.8

Information Machinery and Equipment

36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8 35.8 37.7 33.8 33.8 34.6 35.9 35.5 32.3 30.2

▲ 2.1

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6 40.7 40.5 36.8 37.2 35.9 37.8 36.5 35.0 33.5

▲ 1.5

Special Merchandise

35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 32.6 31.7 32.8 33.5 36.0 33.3 30.9

▲ 2.4

Various Merchandise

36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 27.3 33.0 35.9 38.0 37.5 36.2 32.6

▲ 3.6

Other

33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.0 35.4 31.7 37.9 43.3 40.0 40.0

0.0

34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1 34.5 35.4 32.7 32.6 34.8 36.0 37.7 34.4 31.9

▲ 2.5

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7 34.5 36.3 36.0 35.8 37.1 39.1 40.3 37.7 35.5

▲ 2.2

Restaurants

12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 20.5 19.7 14.8 15.2 27.8 31.4 34.7 24.2 16.9

▲ 7.3

Postal,Telecommunications

38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5 27.8 42.9 39.6 41.7 50.0 40.5 41.7 46.7 50.0

3.3Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2 45.0 40.8 44.4 45.8 42.6 38.9 39.7 40.0 37.5

▲ 2.5

Leasing,Rentals

32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0 38.1 41.0 37.4 39.6 43.9 44.9 44.8 42.0 41.0

▲ 1.0

Lodging, Hotels

4.4

11.6 13.0 10.0 10.4 22.6 30.2 29.5 12.9 12.8

▲ 0.1

Recreation

25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5 29.2 34.8 29.2 29.0 34.0 36.7 38.4 33.3 31.2

▲ 2.1

Broadcasting

42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 38.9 39.2 49.1 48.1 46.9 45.8 47.6

1.8

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8 42.7 41.9 41.6 44.0 44.3 45.3 45.7 42.3 40.2

▲ 2.1

Advertising24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4 27.5 27.5 26.8 29.5 32.4 36.8 37.7 32.7 31.5

▲ 1.2

Information

43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9 46.8 48.2 46.7 48.5 50.5 51.2 52.5 50.1 50.2

0.1

Labor Dispatching

33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5 36.2 41.9 38.4 41.9 39.7 44.3 43.3 45.1 41.5

▲ 3.6

Special Services

42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.3 44.4 45.5 47.9 49.2 50.3 47.2 46.2

▲ 1.0

Medical,Welfare,Public Health34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2 41.2 42.1 41.1 41.4 42.8 45.7 43.2 42.4 41.0

▲ 1.4

Education

34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.3 37.5 39.0 43.5 39.1 43.2 39.7 40.2

0.5

Other

34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.8 37.4 34.7 39.2 40.6 41.7 42.4 39.3 36.9

▲ 2.4

36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5 39.7 41.5 39.1 41.1 43.6 45.3 46.1 42.8 41.4

▲ 1.4

30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3 35.5 34.7 35.3 35.6 38.0 39.6 40.5 36.3 37.3

1.0

Total

Other

10.9

8.6

5.6

Ratio to theFeb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22

PreviousMonthHokkaido

33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5 37.1 38.3 38.0 38.5 40.8 40.8 41.1 38.6 37.0

▲ 1.6

Tohoku35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7 39.3 40.0 38.4 39.0 40.2 42.1 41.7 38.1 37.0

▲ 1.1

kitakanto

37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5 41.2 42.7 41.5 40.4 42.8 44.4 45.0 42.3 40.7

▲ 1.6

minamikanto

35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4 39.8 41.0 40.0 41.4 42.4 43.9 44.8 42.6 41.5

▲ 1.1

Hokuriku

34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1 39.2 40.6 39.1 40.4 41.2 42.6 43.6 40.9 39.2

▲ 1.7

Tokai

36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9 39.4 42.0 40.0 39.1 40.1 42.4 44.4 41.1 39.7

▲ 1.4

Kinki

35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 38.1 40.3 38.7 39.3 41.3 42.7 43.3 40.8 39.8

▲ 1.0

Chugoku36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0 37.9 39.0 38.2 38.7 41.2 42.3 42.9 40.7 40.0

▲ 0.7

Shikoku35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8 37.6 38.2 36.9 38.3 39.0 41.8 43.2 39.3 37.1

▲ 2.2

Kyushu37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5 38.3 40.5 37.4 39.1 42.0 44.3 44.5 41.3 39.5

▲ 1.8

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 2022

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 24,213; Valid
responses: 11,562; Response rate: 47.8%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

577
806
914
3,310
616

Kyushu

1,273
1,953
715
428
970

Total

11,562

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

76

Finance

113

Construction

1,957

Real Estate

392

Manufacturing（3,083）Wholesale（2,920）Retail（528）

Food,Beverages

74

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

35

Drugs,Sundries

27

Furniture

14

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

42

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

385

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

112

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

235

Special Merchandise

185

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

102

Various Merchandise

45

Publishing,Printing

181

OthersChemical424

Transportation,Warehousing

550

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

552

Restaurants

68

General Machinery483

Telecommunications

11

Electrical Machinery

331

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

115

Leasing,Rentals

124

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

74

Lodging, Hotels

47

Others89

Recreation

63

10

16

Food,Beverages

395

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

190

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

343

Advertising98

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

104

Information

488

Chemical

267

Labor Dispatching

67

35

Special Services

304
122

Recycled Resources

Service（1,897）

21

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

308

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment927

Education

Others351

Others

39
46
Total

Large Firms

1,912

16.5%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,650

83.5%

micro Firms

3,503

30.3%

Total

11,562100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

215

214

Others

3.Size96

11,562

TDB Trends Research February 2022

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted February 14 – 28 2022

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 24,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 20225