TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for September 2021)

Domestic economy improved for the first timein two months.

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Economic activities gradually normalize along withwidening vaccination ～(Companies researched: 24,516; Valid responses: 12,222; Response rate: 49.9%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: The economy improved in seven industries such as service,
but significantly worsened in the automobile-related sector of
manufacturing.

< Overview of September 2021: Turned upward >The economic diffusion index (DI) in September 2021 was 39.9, up 0.7 points
from the previous month, and improved for the first time in two months. A
decrease in those newly infected and stock price rises, etc., proved a boon, andthe domestic economy turned upward again.

< Future outlook: Gradual recovery >The economy is expected to gradually recover while bearing downside risks
due to the spread of the infection.

By size: The economy improved in all sizes for the first time in two months.
Stock price rises, etc., were an improvement factor for large companies.
By region: The economy improved in eight of the ten regions, with apositive factor being the nationwide decrease in those newly infected.

55
50
45

40
35

33.8
31.6

35.4 35.0

33.9

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1

40.7

41.1 41.5
39.2 39.9 40.3

After 1 month

41.8 42.2 42.7 42.9

After 3 months

After 6 months

43.1 43.6

44.1 44.5 45.0

After 1 year

30
25
0

（Prediction→）

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
2020
2021
2022
Projected future DI 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 40.3 41.1 41.5 41.8 42.2 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.5 45.0
Change from Sep.2021
0.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.1
Upper
42.3 43.0
43.6
44.2model.
44.9 45.2 45.6 46.2 46.9 47.5 48.0*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are 41.2
incorporated
to the
ARIMA
Lower
39.5 39.8 40.0 40.0 40.3 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.9 41.3 41.6 41.9

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to the
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

Previous
Month

Total

31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9

0.7

Large Firms

33.9 36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3 38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2 41.9 42.9 41.4 42.5

1.1

Small to Medium-sized Firms

31.1 33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4 35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9 38.5 40.2 38.8 39.4

0.6

Micro Firms

32.0 33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8 34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6 37.1 38.4 37.4 38.7

1.3

Ratio to the
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

30.3 34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9 33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7 39.1 38.5 37.0 38.1

1.1

Finance35.3 38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1 38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5 41.7 42.8 39.7 41.5

1.8

Construction

40.4 41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4 40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0 41.6 42.7 42.5 43.7

1.2

Real Estate35.6 36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5 38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4 40.9 41.8 39.4 42.6

3.2

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed

32.0 34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7 30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6 34.0 35.5 32.8 34.1

1.3

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

23.5 24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5 26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 29.3 31.0 29.3 28.2

▲ 1.1

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

31.3 35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3 37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6 40.1 42.5 41.2 42.7

1.5

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

24.1 26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6 29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5 34.9 37.2 36.6 36.2

▲ 0.4

Publishing,Printing

20.4 21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2 22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2 27.1 27.4 25.6 27.1

1.5

Chemical31.1 34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0 40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3 44.5 46.3 45.0 41.9

▲ 3.1

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

25.4 29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9 37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9 43.4 46.4 45.1 43.8

▲ 1.3

General Machinery

26.5 29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6 36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2 43.7 45.9 46.6 46.2

▲ 0.4

Electrical Machinery

28.9 33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1 39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8 45.0 46.8 45.9 45.8

▲ 0.1

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

27.8 34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1 40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3 47.1 50.6 48.2 37.6

▲ 10.6

Medical Instruments and Equipment

30.2 32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9 42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7 49.1 50.5 50.9 50.8

▲ 0.1

Other

26.3 29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5 31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0 34.1 37.6 33.9 35.3

1.4

27.8 31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4 35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0 40.6 42.7 41.5 40.7

▲ 0.8

Food,BEWerages

30.2 32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8 29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 30.7 31.3 29.1 29.8

0.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

19.4 22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2 19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7 22.5 22.8 21.2 22.4

1.2

31.7 33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7 34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5 36.3 37.8 37.7 39.6

1.9

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

24.0 26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3 29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6 31.4 31.2 29.2 29.6

0.4

Chemical30.1 32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3 37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7 42.0 42.4 40.7 42.2

1.5

Recycled Resources30.2 32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6 42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4 52.0 53.7 51.4 51.8

0.4

Mining Products

26.4 30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6 33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5 38.7 41.1 41.1 41.6

0.5

Machinery,Equipment

30.6 33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6 36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0 40.7 43.1 41.3 41.8

0.5

Other

27.6 30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0 31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2 35.5 36.6 33.0 34.4

1.4

28.9 31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6 33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3 36.8 38.3 36.6 37.6

1.0

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to the
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

34.0 38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8 33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6 34.9 37.5 36.0 33.1

▲ 2.9

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

19.9 27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7 21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2 20.3 25.0 21.4 21.5

0.1

Drugs,Sundries

32.6 33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2 32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3 31.4 32.5 33.3 34.6

1.3

Furniture

38.5 37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4 36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6 39.8 36.9 34.6 32.2

▲ 2.4

Information Machinery and Equipment

30.6 34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3 36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8 35.8 37.7 33.8 33.8

0.0Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

32.4 34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7 37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6 40.7 40.5 36.8 37.2

0.4

Special Merchandise

31.6 33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 32.6 31.7

▲ 0.9

Various Merchandise

37.0 37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7 36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 27.3 33.0

5.7

Other

33.3 33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3 33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.0 35.4

▲ 1.6

32.1 34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9 34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1 34.5 35.4 32.7 32.6

▲ 0.1

28.1 30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0 31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7 34.5 36.3 36.0 35.8

▲ 0.2

Restaurants

14.5 18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3 12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 20.5 19.7 14.8 15.2

0.4

Postal,Telecommunications

46.7 41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3 38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5 27.8 42.9 39.6 41.7

2.1

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

42.5 40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5 39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2 45.0 40.8 44.4 45.8

1.4

Leasing,Rentals

34.5 34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5 32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0 38.1 41.0 37.4 39.6

2.2

Lodging, Hotels

12.4 27.2 28.8 11.9

11.6 13.0 10.0 10.4

0.4

Recreation

22.4 23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5 29.2 34.8 29.2 29.0

▲ 0.2

Broadcasting

33.3 34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3 42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 38.9 39.2

0.3

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

36.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3 37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8 42.7 41.9 41.6 44.0

2.4

Advertising

20.4 21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2 24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4 27.5 27.5 26.8 29.5

2.7

Information

38.9 40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3 43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9 46.8 48.2 46.7 48.5

1.8

Labor Dispatching

26.7 29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6 33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5 36.2 41.9 38.4 41.9

3.5

Special Services

40.0 40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8 42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.3 44.4 45.5

1.1

Medical,Welfare,Public Health31.4 33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7 34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2 41.2 42.1 41.1 41.4

0.3

Education

34.0 34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3 34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.3 37.5 39.0

1.5

Other

31.1 31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.8 37.4 34.7 39.2

4.5

33.9 35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9 36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5 39.7 41.5 39.1 41.1

2.0

31.5 28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5 30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3 35.5 34.7 35.3 35.6

0.3

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

Total

Other

3.4

4.4

10.9

8.6

5.6

Ratio to the
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido34.4 36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4 33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5 37.1 38.3 38.0 38.5

Tohoku32.6 34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7 39.3 40.0 38.4 39.0

0.6

kitakanto

30.6 33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9 37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5 41.2 42.7 41.5 40.4

▲ 1.1

minamikanto

32.3 34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0 35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4 39.8 41.0 40.0 41.4

1.4

Hokuriku

30.0 31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7 34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1 39.2 40.6 39.1 40.4

1.3

Tokai

30.3 32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1 36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9 39.4 42.0 40.0 39.1

▲ 0.9

0.5

Kinki

29.5 32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1 35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 38.1 40.3 38.7 39.3

0.6

Chugoku

32.0 34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5 36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0 37.9 39.0 38.2 38.7

0.5

Shikoku32.6 33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8 35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8 37.6 38.2 36.9 38.3

1.4

Kyushu34.2 36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3 37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5 38.3 40.5 37.4 39.1

1.7

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2021

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 24,516; Valid
responses: 12,222; Response rate: 49.9%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

590
885
867
3,623
633

Kyushu

1,389
2,109
715
426
985

Total

12,222

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

80

Finance124

Construction

2,010

Real Estate

402

Manufacturing（3,265）Wholesale（3,138）Retail（531）

Food,Beverages

81

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38

Drugs,Sundries

26

Furniture

15

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

39

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

393

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

130

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

245

Special Merchandise

180

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

109

Various Merchandise

48

Publishing,Printing

199

OthersChemical452

Transportation,Warehousing

584

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

583

Restaurants

70

General Machinery

515

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

343

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

8

6
20

122

Leasing,Rentals

133

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

79

Lodging, Hotels

48

Others95

Recreation

73

Food,Beverages

421

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

190

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（2,037）

20

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

222

355

Advertising

112

113

Information

528

319

Labor Dispatching

72

37

Special Services

340
122

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

333

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment997

Education

38

Others373

Others

233
51

OthersTotal

3.Size96

Large Firms

2,040

16.7%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

10,182

83.3%

micro Firms

3,658

29.9%

Total

12,222100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

12,222

TDB Trends Research September 2021

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted Sep 15 – 30 2021

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 24,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 20215