TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for September 2020)

A pick-up movement in domestic economy,
but differences in business categories

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ A balance between preventing the spread of infection
and resuming economic activities is increasingly important ～（Companies researched: 23,695; Valid responses: 11,689; Response rate: 49.3%;
Survey start date: May 2002)< Overview of August 2020: Ceased to fall >The economic diffusion index (DI) in September 2020 was 31.6, up (1.9 points)from the previous month, increased for 4 consecutive months. There was animprovement in the domestic economy, although there was a difference inrecovery depending on the business category.

By industry : Business confidence was positive in nine industries.
Although many business categories improved, there are differences inthe speed of recovery.
By size : Business confidence was positive in all sizes for 4 consecutive
months, with new demand because of the spread of household
consumption.

< Future outlook: Leveling-off >The economy is expected to continue to be flat, while having both positive
and negative factors.

By region : Business confidence was positive in all ten regions for the firsttime in two months. Improvements in key industries prompted upward
pressure.
50454035302520151050

45.0 43.9 43.6

42.5 41.9

38.7
32.5
25.8 25.2 27.6

29.1 29.7

34.6 35.6
31.6 32.9 33.2 32.9 31.8 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.7

37.6 39.2

After 1 year
After 1 month

After 3 months
After 6 months（Prediction→）
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
2019
2020
2021
Projected future DI
45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 32.9 33.2 32.9 31.8 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.7 34.6 35.6 37.6 39.2
Change from September.2020
1.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.0 6.0 7.6*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research September 2020

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theSep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

PreviousMonthTotal

45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6

1.9

Large Firms

48.0 47.1 47.0 45.7 45.3 42.0 34.8 28.2 28.1 30.1 31.7 32.4 33.9

1.5

Small to Medium-sized Firms

44.2 43.2 42.8 41.7 41.1 38.0 32.0 25.3 24.6 27.0 28.5 29.1 31.1

2.0

Micro Firms

45.1 43.9 43.5 42.1 41.4 38.8 32.3 25.4 24.6 27.8 29.4 30.0 32.0

2.0

Ratio to the
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

41.8 42.3 42.5 41.7 38.4 37.9 32.8 28.2 25.1 29.6 31.4 31.0 30.3

▲ 0.7

Finance45.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 44.8 42.2 33.3 27.3 28.7 32.4 31.5 32.6 35.3

2.7

Construction

53.1 52.1 52.2 51.6 50.0 47.8 41.5 33.9 33.5 36.3 37.5 38.4 40.4

2.0Real Estate

48.0 45.9 46.0 44.2 45.9 42.0 31.6 21.9 23.5 29.2 32.5 33.1 35.6

2.5Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed39.8 39.1 39.7 39.9 38.0 34.5 28.4 24.8 24.6 27.2 29.6 30.5 32.0

1.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.3 36.1 34.6 32.6 30.5 29.3 23.2 16.7 17.7 17.9 19.8 20.3 23.5

3.2

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

44.1 44.8 43.8 40.2 39.9 37.2 33.4 29.2 26.5 28.1 28.3 29.8 31.3

1.5

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

42.8 40.2 41.7 40.6 37.3 32.0 29.2 24.0 21.4 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.1

1.2

Publishing,Printing34.1 33.0 32.7 32.9 30.9 29.7 23.1 16.8 14.4 16.0 15.8 18.8 20.4

1.6

Chemical

41.0 41.2 40.6 40.1 39.0 35.8 32.1 27.5 25.3 25.9 27.3 27.8 31.1

3.3

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

40.4 39.8 38.1 37.6 36.3 32.9 29.0 23.6 21.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 25.4

1.8

General Machinery

41.1 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.3 35.4 31.1 25.3 23.6 23.5 24.6 25.0 26.5

1.5

Electrical Machinery

41.2 42.2 40.5 40.4 41.0 38.5 32.7 27.6 26.1 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.91.2Transportation Machinery,Equipment

42.3 43.5 41.2 40.9 39.4 36.5 34.2 22.2 18.2 18.1 21.2 24.2 27.8

3.6

Medical Instruments and Equipment

42.0 41.3 42.0 39.9 40.4 39.0 34.8 27.2 26.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 30.2

0.6

Other

41.8 37.4 38.4 38.0 36.9 36.8 31.1 20.7 19.8 23.9 25.2 22.8 26.3

3.5

40.6 40.3 39.6 38.6 37.6 34.9 30.3 24.7 23.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 27.8

1.9

Food,BEWerages

38.8 38.1 37.9 37.4 37.3 33.1 25.6 21.3 21.0 24.5 27.3 27.2 30.23.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

31.6 28.8 28.8 26.5 26.2 22.0 16.4 10.3 11.4 15.8 18.2 18.0 19.4

1.4

46.0 45.1 43.4 43.1 42.8 38.5 34.4 27.9 27.7 29.6 30.2 30.4 31.7

1.3

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

38.0 37.7 36.3 35.0 34.9 33.5 27.5 22.0 19.1 19.0 21.9 23.2 24.0

0.8

Chemical

42.7 41.0 40.4 39.0 38.7 35.5 33.2 28.9 27.4 27.6 29.2 29.5 30.1

0.6

Recycled Resources

30.6 34.8 29.0 33.3 30.8 27.1 21.2 18.7 18.8 23.8 24.5 27.8 30.2

2.4

Mining Products

37.6 38.0 37.0 34.8 33.9 31.9 27.8 23.2 22.8 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.4

1.1Machinery,Equipment

44.6 42.7 42.3 41.7 41.2 38.2 33.0 25.9 25.1 27.4 29.0 28.6 30.6

2.0

Other

40.7 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 31.5 26.5 21.4 19.8 23.1 25.1 25.4 27.6

2.2

41.4 39.9 39.3 38.4 37.9 34.4 29.4 23.7 23.0 25.3 27.0 27.1 28.9

1.8

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay ProductsWholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,.

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 20202

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to the
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

PreviousMonth

RetailFood,BEWerages

41.8 40.5 40.2 38.4 39.1 36.7 25.8 26.3 27.4 30.8 30.7 29.1 34.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

37.9 32.7 31.5 28.7 28.0 24.2 16.2 11.4

Drugs,Sundries

40.6 35.8 37.3 40.2 37.7 34.7 27.5 28.7 25.3 32.7 32.7 31.3 32.6

1.3

Furniture

53.0 33.3 26.9 31.8 31.9 29.2 22.6 10.8 15.5 31.7 40.0 38.9 38.5

▲ 0.4

Information Machinery and Equipment

45.0 34.3 32.3 38.1 38.2 36.0 28.4 19.3 21.9 33.8 29.8 30.5 30.6

0.1

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

41.4 34.5 31.4 31.9 36.7 32.9 27.9 17.0 15.8 25.4 29.3 29.3 32.4

3.1

Special Merchandise

43.5 38.2 39.1 36.0 35.2 34.7 27.4 20.2 19.9 27.7 30.2 30.0 31.6

1.6

Various Merchandise

43.1 36.5 36.5 36.2 37.4 34.4 29.3 32.3 29.9 34.5 40.9 36.9 37.0

0.1

Other

40.5 48.1 40.7 47.9 48.1 43.9 31.8 26.9 30.6 31.8 26.7 25.9 33.3

7.4

42.6 37.0 36.1 35.8 36.3 34.1 26.7 21.2 21.1 29.1 31.0 30.3 32.1

1.8

46.0 44.9 45.1 42.6 39.5 34.0 27.7 22.4 22.7 21.5 24.2 25.4 28.1

2.7

Restaurants

43.6 37.3 39.4 40.7 41.0 32.3 14.2

13.8 13.7 12.7 14.5

1.8

Postal,Telecommunications

56.9 56.1 59.5 52.8 64.6 57.1 50.0 30.3 33.3 43.3 41.7 42.6 46.7

4.1

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

51.3 51.2 52.2 47.4 52.4 46.7 40.5 28.4 32.4 34.4 34.9 42.5 42.5

0.0

Leasing,Rentals

53.5 54.5 53.1 50.4 50.8 46.9 34.0 27.8 29.1 30.2 31.4 32.7 34.5

1.8

Lodging, Hotels

47.2 41.3 42.0 39.1 38.5 23.2

7.0

1.5

2.9

4.8

12.4

6.4

Recreation

38.7 38.2 40.7 37.5 39.4 35.7 17.0

5.6

9.3

11.5 17.5 22.9 22.4

▲ 0.5

Broadcasting

43.1 42.9 41.7 38.2 38.1 38.9 29.8 22.9 22.5 26.7 25.6 34.5 33.3

▲ 1.2

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

48.6 49.1 47.3 46.6 46.4 42.6 36.0 27.5 26.6 29.9 33.2 34.1 36.5

2.4Advertising40.3 40.4 39.6 37.8 40.0 34.1 21.3 11.3 10.7 14.3 19.0 18.0 20.4

2.4

Information

57.7 57.4 57.8 56.2 56.5 54.2 43.9 33.7 34.0 35.8 37.2 37.9 38.9

1.0

Labor Dispatching

53.2 53.3 50.9 46.2 49.2 42.5 34.1 21.0 20.0 25.3 24.6 25.4 26.7

1.3

Special Services

51.8 51.5 50.8 49.9 50.3 45.8 40.4 31.4 32.2 35.0 36.7 36.1 40.0

3.9

Medical,Welfare,Public Health47.3 46.5 48.5 47.7 47.8 43.2 35.9 26.4 26.1 30.5 29.9 31.0 31.4

0.4

Education

40.0 42.4 37.8 43.1 41.4 40.0 29.7 13.9 18.8 28.0 29.5 31.7 34.0

2.3

Other

48.4 47.9 47.9 45.6 46.2 39.8 29.2 21.2 21.8 26.6 28.7 28.4 31.1

2.7

51.0 50.6 50.4 48.8 49.5 45.1 35.3 25.8 26.1 29.4 31.2 31.8 33.9

2.1

42.1 43.1 40.4 41.7 42.7 39.2 29.8 24.4 26.2 27.1 29.3 28.8 31.5

2.7

Electrical Household Appliances,Total

Transportation,Warehousing

ServiceTotal

Other

4.3

8.8

5.5

23.6 24.7 24.0 19.9

5.1

6.0

4.9
▲ 4.1

Ratio to the
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

PreviousMonthHokkaido

46.6 45.7 45.0 43.8 42.4 39.0 31.0 28.4 27.5 30.6 32.3 33.4 34.4

1.0

Tohoku43.2 41.9 42.2 40.9 38.8 36.7 30.7 26.0 25.3 28.5 29.7 30.4 32.6

2.2

kitakanto

42.2 40.9 40.0 40.0 39.4 36.9 31.8 25.8 24.5 26.2 27.1 28.0 30.6

2.6

minamikanto

46.1 45.5 45.5 44.3 44.5 41.1 34.1 26.3 25.5 28.4 29.7 30.4 32.3

1.9

Hokuriku

43.5 42.1 40.4 39.5 37.6 35.6 29.7 24.9 25.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.0

1.5

Tokai

45.2 43.6 42.7 41.8 40.6 37.3 31.4 23.7 23.4 25.3 27.0 27.7 30.3

2.6

Kinki

43.9 42.2 41.9 40.5 39.8 36.3 30.4 23.9 23.8 25.9 27.8 28.1 29.5

1.4

Chugoku45.0 44.0 43.6 42.6 41.2 39.0 33.8 27.0 25.7 27.2 29.4 29.7 32.02.3Shikoku

43.9 44.4 44.0 43.8 42.7 39.5 36.4 30.8 28.5 30.3 30.5 31.5 32.6

1.1

Kyushu47.1 46.5 46.8 45.1 45.2 41.5 35.3 27.5 27.4 29.7 32.5 31.8 34.2

2.4

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 20203

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,695; Validresponses: 11,689; Response rate: 49.3%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

555
799
876
3,608
626

Kyushu1,325
1,938661
411
890

Total

11,689

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

66

Finance

129

Construction

1,895

Real Estate

375

Manufacturing（3,251）

Wholesale（3,080）

Retail（461）

Food,Beverages

75

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

31

Drugs,Sundries

23

Furniture

16

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

37

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

387

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

127

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

244

Special Merchandise

135

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

110

Various Merchandise

45

Publishing,Printing

197

OthersChemical

462

Transportation,Warehousing

518

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

559

Restaurants

55

General Machinery

533

Telecommunications

10

Electrical Machinery

351

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

111

Leasing,Rentals

131

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

75

Lodging, Hotels

31

Others95

Recreation

64

Food,Beverages

398

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

194

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,860）

1120

16

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

203

367

Advertising

107

100

Information

501

283

Labor Dispatching

70

37

Special Services

302
127

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

338

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment997

Education

Others366

Others26
197
54

OthersTotal

3.SizeLarge Firms

2,100

18.0%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,589

82.0%

micro Firms

3,424

29.3%

Total

11,689100.0%88©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,689

TDB Trends Research September 20204

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted September 15 – 30 2020

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms
No. of Employee: Below 20No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery bad

points

6543

2

10

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2

N1N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category× Number of responses for each category) 1× × 100
Number of valid responsesN6∑≡6i ≡0i × Ni

N×1× 1006©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 20205