TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for May 2021)

Worsening for the first time in four months
due to the state of emergency, etc.

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ The impact due to reducing people flow spreads to consumer spending
and a wide range of related industries ～（Companies researched: 23,724; Valid responses: 11,242; Response rate: 47.4%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: The economy worsened in eight industries. Lacking
materials and price increases in many industries were negative factors.

< Overview of May 2021: Upswing is paused >The economic diffusion index (DI) in May 2021 was 37.5, down 0.8 points fromthe previous month, and worsening for the first time in four months. Reducing
people flow as a measure to prevent the spread of infection led to a deteriorated
domestic economy for the first time in four months.

By size: The economy worsened for the first time in four months in “large
enterprises”, “small and medium-sized enterprises”, and small
enterprises”.
By region: The economy worsened in all ten regions. A “state of
emergency”, etc., impacted a wider range of regions.

< Future outlook: Temporary worsening but gradually upswing >Although the economy temporarily worsens, with many downside risks, it isbelieved it will gradually upswing.
50
45
40

35
30

25.2

27.6

29.1 29.7

31.6

33.8

35.4 35.0

33.9

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5 37.3 38.4

39.3

41.9
40.3 41.1

42.6 43.1 43.7

44.4 44.7 45.1

After 1 year
After 6 months
After 1 month

After 3 months

25
20
0

（Prediction→）

May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2020
2021
2022
Projected future DI 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 37.3 38.4 39.3 40.3 41.1 41.9 42.6 43.1 43.7 44.4 44.7 45.1
Change from May.2021-0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.2 7.6
Upper
39.6 40.8
42.043.0model.
44.0 44.9 45.5 46.3 47.1 47.5 48.1*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are 38.1
incorporated
to the
ARIMA
Lower
36.5 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.2 39.8 40.4 40.7 41.2 41.7 41.9 42.2

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theMay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

Previous
Month

Total

25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5

▲ 0.8

Large Firms

28.1 30.1 31.7 32.4 33.9 36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3 38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2

▲ 0.6

Small to Medium-sized Firms

24.6 27.0 28.5 29.1 31.1 33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4 35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9

▲ 0.8

Micro Firms

24.6 27.8 29.4 30.0 32.0 33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8 34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6

▲ 0.7

Ratio to theMay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

25.1 29.6 31.4 31.0 30.3 34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9 33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7

Finance28.7 32.4 31.5 32.6 35.3 38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1 38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5

1.2

Construction

33.5 36.3 37.5 38.4 40.4 41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4 40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0

▲ 1.4

Real Estate

23.5 29.2 32.5 33.1 35.6 36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5 38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4

▲ 1.4

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed24.6 27.2 29.6 30.5 32.0 34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7 30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6

▲ 1.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

17.7 17.9 19.8 20.3 23.5 24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5 26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2

0.5

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

26.5 28.1 28.3 29.8 31.3 35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3 37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6

▲ 0.7

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

21.4 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.1 26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6 29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5

▲ 0.8

Publishing,Printing

14.4 16.0 15.8 18.8 20.4 21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2 22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2

▲ 3.0

Chemical25.3 25.9 27.3 27.8 31.1 34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0 40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3

0.1

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

21.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 25.4 29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9 37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9

▲ 0.6

General Machinery

23.6 23.5 24.6 25.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6 36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2

0.1

Electrical Machinery

26.1 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.9 33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1 39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8

▲ 0.4

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

18.2 18.1 21.2 24.2 27.8 34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1 40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3

0.1

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

0.2

Precision Machinery,
Medical Instruments and Equipment

26.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 30.2 32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9 42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7

3.1

Other

19.8 23.9 25.2 22.8 26.3 29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5 31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0

▲ 2.3

Total

23.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 27.8 31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4 35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0

▲ 0.5

Food,BEWerages

21.0 24.5 27.3 27.2 30.2 32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8 29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4

▲ 0.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

11.4 15.8 18.2 18.0 19.4 22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2 19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7

▲ 1.4

27.7 29.6 30.2 30.4 31.7 33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7 34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5

▲ 0.7

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

19.1 19.0 21.9 23.2 24.0 26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3 29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6

▲ 1.8

Chemical27.4 27.6 29.2 29.5 30.1 32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3 37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7

▲ 0.2

Recycled Resources

18.8 23.8 24.5 27.8 30.2 32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6 42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4

▲ 1.7

Mining Products

22.8 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.4 30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6 33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5

0.3

Machinery,Equipment25.1 27.4 29.0 28.6 30.6 33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6 36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0

▲ 1.1

Other

19.8 23.1 25.1 25.4 27.6 30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0 31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2

▲ 1.9

23.0 25.3 27.0 27.1 28.9 31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6 33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3

▲ 0.9

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theMay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

27.4 30.8 30.7 29.1 34.0 38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8 33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6

▲ 0.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

8.8

23.6 24.7 24.0 19.9 27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7 21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2

▲ 3.8

Drugs,Sundries

25.3 32.7 32.7 31.3 32.6 33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2 32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3

▲ 6.5

Furniture

15.5 31.7 40.0 38.9 38.5 37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4 36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6

▲ 2.1

Information Machinery and Equipment

21.9 33.8 29.8 30.5 30.6 34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3 36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8

▲ 7.0Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

15.8 25.4 29.3 29.3 32.4 34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7 37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6

0.3

Special Merchandise

19.9 27.7 30.2 30.0 31.6 33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5

▲ 0.1

Various Merchandise

29.9 34.5 40.9 36.9 37.0 37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7 36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1

▲ 1.1

Other

30.6 31.8 26.7 25.9 33.3 33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3 33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0

▲ 15.521.1 29.1 31.0 30.3 32.1 34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9 34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1

▲ 1.6

22.7 21.5 24.2 25.4 28.1 30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0 31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7

▲ 0.8

Restaurants

5.5

13.8 13.7 12.7 14.5 18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3 12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0

▲ 1.9

Postal,Telecommunications

33.3 43.3 41.7 42.6 46.7 41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3 38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5

1.6

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

32.4 34.4 34.9 42.5 42.5 40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5 39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2

0.8

Leasing,Rentals

29.1 30.2 31.4 32.7 34.5 34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5 32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0

▲ 0.4

Lodging, Hotels

2.9

4.8

5.6

▲ 3.0

Recreation

9.3

11.5 17.5 22.9 22.4 23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5

3.7

Broadcasting

22.5 26.7 25.6 34.5 33.3 34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3 42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7

0.0

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

26.6 29.9 33.2 34.1 36.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3 37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8

1.6

Advertising

10.7 14.3 19.0 18.0 20.4 21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2 24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4

▲ 2.2

Information

34.0 35.8 37.2 37.9 38.9 40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3 43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9

▲ 0.3

Labor Dispatching

20.0 25.3 24.6 25.4 26.7 29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6 33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5

▲ 0.3

Special Services

32.2 35.0 36.7 36.1 40.0 40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8 42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5

▲ 2.0

Medical,Welfare,Public Health26.1 30.5 29.9 31.0 31.4 33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7 34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2

0.1

Education

18.8 28.0 29.5 31.7 34.0 34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3 34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1

1.4

Other

21.8 26.6 28.7 28.4 31.1 31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2

0.4

26.1 29.4 31.2 31.8 33.9 35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9 36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5

▲ 0.4

26.2 27.1 29.3 28.8 31.5 28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5 30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3

▲ 0.8

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

Total

Other

5.1

6.0

12.4 27.2 28.8 11.9

3.4

4.4

10.9

8.6

Ratio to theMay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido27.5 30.6 32.3 33.4 34.4 36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4 33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5

▲ 1.7

Tohoku25.3 28.5 29.7 30.4 32.6 34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7

▲ 0.3

kitakanto

24.5 26.2 27.1 28.0 30.6 33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9 37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5

▲ 0.2

minamikanto

25.5 28.4 29.7 30.4 32.3 34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0 35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4

▲ 0.3

Hokuriku

25.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.0 31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7 34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1

▲ 1.5

Tokai

23.4 25.3 27.0 27.7 30.3 32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1 36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9

▲ 1.0

Kinki

23.8 25.9 27.8 28.1 29.5 32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1 35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2

▲ 0.8

Chugoku25.7 27.2 29.4 29.7 32.0 34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5 36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0

▲ 1.8

Shikoku28.5 30.3 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8 35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8

▲ 0.6

Kyushu27.4 29.7 32.5 31.8 34.2 36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3 37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5

▲ 2.0

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2021

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,724; Valid
responses: 11,242; Response rate: 47.4%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

525
726
826
3,527
593

Kyushu

1,205
1,893
661
412
874

Total

11,242

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

77

Finance

118

Construction

1,868

Real Estate

360

Manufacturing（3,060）Wholesale（2,936）

Retail（465）

Food,Beverages

68

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33

Drugs,Sundries

25

Furniture

16

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

40

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

365

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

117

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

237

Special Merchandise154

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

102

Various Merchandise

45

Publishing,Printing

179

OthersChemical

421

Transportation,Warehousing

508

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

536

Restaurants

59

General Machinery

500

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

337

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

8

7
17

100

Leasing,Rentals

128

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

75

Lodging, Hotels

39

Others91

Recreation

65

Food,Beverages

385

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

197

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,800）16

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

177

363

Advertising

104

103

Information

475

279

Labor Dispatching

62

34

Special Services

295
116

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

305

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment926

Education

Others344

Others31
209
50

OthersTotal

3.Size76

Large Firms

1,894

16.8%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,348

83.2%

micro Firms

3,377

30.0%

Total

11,242100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,242

TDB Trends Research May 2021

4

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted May 18 – 31 2021

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Selection category Extremely good

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 20215