Overview of physics-based
space weather modeling andforecasting activities at NASA
GSFC Space WeatherLaboratory (SWL)
Pulkkinen, A.1,2, M. Hesse2, Y. Zheng2,M. Maddox2, A. Taktakishvili3,2, P.
Macneice2, M. Kuznetsova2, L.
Rastaetter2!
1The Catholic University of America, USA!
2NASA/GSFC Space Weather Laboratory, USA!
3University of Maryland, Baltimore County, USA!

Background – GSFC SWL SWx history
•••

•

2007
– Charged by NASA HQ/HSD to develop initial web-service.
– SWx and anomaly resolution support for SSMO initiated.
2008– Successful proposal to OCE/TEI to develop innovative SWx
information dissemination system (iSWA).
– OCE study emphasizes SWx needs of NASA’s robotic missions.
2009– Robotic mission operator workshop, IPP/OCE supported,requirements document.
– SWx alert partnering with the US Air Force Weather Agency.
2010– Formal establishment of GSFC Space Weather Desk in March2010.
– Routine SWx alerts and updates for robotic missions acrossNASA, broad partnering.

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Background – GSFC SWL SWx• NASA robotic mission operators the primary customer.
• Directly leverages modeling support from Community
Coordinated Modeling Center.
• Utilizes largest assembly of space weather models
worldwide along with in-house NASA data streams, e.g.,
SOHO, STEREO, SDO.
• Benefits from partnering with various groups within NASA.
• Strengthened by partnering with US Air Force WeatherAgency.
• Collaboration with Electric Power Research Institute, US
DoE and US DHS [see Solar Shield presentation],commercial entities.
• Fast growing number of significant international
collaborators (e.g., FMI – EURISGIC).
AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

SWx Service Level••••

Space weather alerts and weekly reports.
Spacecraft anomaly analysis support.
Real-time space weather displays and products via iSWA.
Annual SWx and NASA robotic mission operator workshop.

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA)
System•One-stop shop for 200+ real-time space weather products(iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov).

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Example – Aug 2-4, 2011 CME events• Sequence of recent major CME events Aug 2-4, 2011 thatcaused Kp = 8 geomagnetic storm on Aug 5, 2011.
• The sequence of events and forecasts demonstrate ourcurrent capacity to provide large lead-time space weather
forecasts.

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Example – Aug 2-4, 2011 CME events## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Laboratory ( SWL )	

## Message Type: Space Weather Alert	##	## Message Issue Date: 2011-08-04T11:00:00Z	## Message ID: 20110804-AL-003	

## Alert Summary:	

A significant CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3. 	

Start time of the event: 2011-08-04T04:10Z.	

Estimated speed: ~ 1950 km/s.	

Estimated opening half-angle: 60 deg.	

Direction (lon./lat.): 40/14 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.	

This CME is associated with the M9.3 class flare peaked at 2011-08-04T03:57Z from N16W38 (Region 1261) (see the alert
20110804-AL-001 earlier today). 	

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at SWL, this CME is likely to interact with the CME occurred on
2011-08-03 and their combined effects will reach Earth at about 2011-08-05T13:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The impact on Earthis likely to be major: the estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of theCME may impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER. 	

Further updates on the event will be provided when available. 	

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Example – Aug 2-4, 2011 CME events

WSA-ENLIL model
AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Example – Aug 2-4, 2011 CME events

B. Jackson’s Heliospheric
Tomography model also used toestimate the CME arrival.

Predicted initial impact
2011-08-04 21:30Z
Observed initial impact
2011-08-04 21:00Z

Predicted major impact
2011-08-05 10:00Z
Observed major impact
2011-08-05 17:25Z

Predicted max. Kp = 7

Observed max. Kp = 8

AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Summary• NASA GSFC’s Space Weather Laboratory leverages NASAobservational data streams and modeling at CCMC to generate
a great variety of state-of-the-art space weather forecastingproducts, which are available world-wide.
• NASA robotic mission operators are our primary customer (butmany other applications), close collaboration with numerous
NASA and external/international entities (e.g., AFWA, FMI).
• Recent CME events demonstrate that we can generate
accurate long lead-time space weather forecasts.
• We are very interested in new international collaborations, forexample, on:o Data exchange.
o Space weather modeling.
o Education.
AOGS 2011, Taipei, Taiwan