TradeUnderTrump

Trade Under Trump

Foreign Trade: An
Opportunity or a Threat?
Change has been the only constantin U.S. trade policy so far in Donald
Trump’s presidency. However, over thepast three years, Americans have been
more optimistic about trade in generalthan ever before.
On specific issues such as the escalation of tariffs
between the U.S. and China, Americans are neither
highly positive nor highly negative about the effect that
it is having on the economy or their own finances.
Americans’ broad view of trade is the mostpositive it has been in more than a quarter-century.
Nearly three-fourths of U.S. adults (74%) today say
trade represents an “opportunity for economic
growth through increased U.S. exports,” whereas
21% say it represents a “threat to the economy fromforeign imports.”
Shifts in Americans’ sentiment on trade over time
have largely followed U.S. economic conditions. In
1992, more Americans saw trade as a threat than anopportunity, as consumers were still rattled by the1990-1991 recession. By 1994, the economy wasdoing well, and the majority saw trade as an opportunity.
Perceptions shifted again in 2005 as the economy
slowed and entered an 18-month recession in late2007, but they have since grown increasingly positive.

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Trade Under Trump

Trade Under Trump

Perceived Effects of Foreign Trade on the U.S.

Both Republicans and Democrats have become more positive about trade in recent years,
each with a particularly sharp improvement after Trump took office in 2017. This likely reflects
opposing partisan responses.

What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as anopportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy
from foreign imports?
% Opportunity for economic growth
80%

60%

40%

7248544435523952484441575835334523Percentage Saying Trade Is Opportunity for Economic Growth

21Republicans

60%

The relationship between Americans’ perceptions of trade and U.S. economic conditions
has been particularly strong since 2011. As the unemployment rate declined from over 9%
in January 2011 to 4% in January 2019, the percentage of Americans perceiving trade as athreat from imports dropped by more than half, from 45% to 21%.

48%

48
7.6

36%
24%

35

52

39
5.7

5.00%

66
5757
4656
47

40

48
47

51

6166

79
70

51

36

1992 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10%

9.1
8.0

8%

5.7
35

3.8

33

4.7
236%

4.0
214%
2%

12%
0%

80

20%

45

5.1

49

36% Threat to the economy

48

59

40%

Negative View of Trade vs. Unemployment

60%

Democrats

80%

1992 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unemployment rate

may be more upbeat about trade as a way
to dispute Trump’s strong statements
against NAFTA (North American Free TradeAgreement) and the TPP (Trans-PacificPartnership) trade agreement.

may feel confident that
Trump will fulfill his promises
to negotiate more favorable
trade deals for the U.S.

74

4520%

0%

DE MOCR AT S

RE PUBLICANS% Threat to the economy

1992 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190%

Unemployment data retrieved from https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

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Trade Under Trump

Trade Under Trump

NAFTA Attitudes Showcase
Partisan Divide on Trade

Trade Seen as Beneficial toU.S. More Broadly

There is a 45-percentage-point gap in the percentage of Democrats versus Republicans
who say that NAFTA has been good for the United States. Since Gallup measured this in
2004, Democrats’ support for NAFTA has surged, while Republicans’ has plunged.

Most Americans today believe trade is beneficial to several key aspects of the economy —particularly innovation and economic growth. Americans are the least positive about theeffect that trade has on the availability of jobs for U.S. workers. Still, the slight majority say
U.S. trade with other countries has a mostly positive effect on jobs for U.S. workers. Notably,Republicans and Democrats largely agree about the impact that trade has in these areas.

Percentage Thinking NAFTA Has Been Good for the U.S.
Thinking about the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United Statesand Mexico — also known as NAFTA — overall, do you think NAFTA has been good for
the U.S. or bad for the U.S.?
Republicans

Democrats

Effect That Trade With Other Countries Has on Each Aspect
Do you think U.S. trade with other countries has a mostly positive effect or a mostly
negative effect on — [RANDOM ORDER]?

67
60%

40%

4249
46

40

20%

0%+45

39

33

22

1997

2000

% Mostly negative% Mostly positive

80%

2004

Innovation and the developmentof new products

70

22

U.S. economic growth67

27

The prices Americans pay for products

6332

2017

American businesses

61

33

The quality of products

5835

Jobs for U.S. workers

4202040516080

Survey administered in February 2019. “No opinion” responses not included.

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5Trade Under Trump

Trade Under Trump

Enthusiasm for U.S.-China Trade
War Is Scarce

Final Thoughts
In 2017, at the start of Trump’s presidency, 71% of Americans said that promoting favorable
trade policies for the U.S. in foreign markets ought to be a very important foreign policy goal of
the United States.

Relatively few Americans in 2018, 31%, thought the tariffs imposed by both countries
during the ongoing U.S.-China trade war would have a positive effect on the U.S. economy.
Less than half, 45%, said the tariffs would make things worse, while 19% thought thetariffs wouldn’t make much difference to the economy in the long run.

In recent years, Republicans and Democrats have divergedon whether NAFTA has been positive for the U.S., with support
surging among Democrats and sinking among Republicans.

Americans were even more ambivalent about the effect of the trade war on their own
financial situation and, in the case of U.S. workers, on their employer’s financial situation.

The difference of opinion may have given rise to broader support among both parties for trade
generally, with Democrats likely considering old trade agreements as beneficial and Republicans
thinking about Trump’s approach to new trade deals.

Effect New U.S.-China Tariffs Would Have on EachIn the long run, do you think these new tariffs will make things better, not makemuch difference or make things worse for each of the following? How about —[RANDOM ORDER]?
% Make better% Make worse% Not make much difference

Meanwhile, the trade war with China is not generally seen as beneficial to the U.S., but with theeconomy still relatively strong and unemployment historically low, Americans don’t perceive
foreign trade as a threat to the U.S. economy.

31
The U.S. economy

19

Have a data question?
Email us at datainquiry@gallup.com.

45

20
43

Your family’s financial situation
331846Your employer’s financial situation*

290204060

Survey administered in July 2018. “No opinion” responses not included.
*Based on employed adults

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Copyright ©
62019 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

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