TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for July 2024)

The domestic economy improved
for the first time in four months～ Despite significant fluctuations in the financial market,
the heatwave and inbound consumption
contributed to the improvement ～e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp(Companies researched: 27,191; Valid responses: 11,282; Response rate: 41.5%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

By industry: Improvement in 7 out of 10 industries, with seasonal
demand driven by the heatwave as a contributing factor.

< Trend in July 2024: First improvement in four months >The economic diffusion index (DI) in July 2024 was 43.8, up 0.5 points
from the previous month, showing the first improvement in four months.
The domestic economy shifted towards a positive direction, led by theeffects of the heatwave and inbound consumption.

By scale: Improvement in all scales for the first time in four months, with“small to medium-sized firms” showing a broad and slight upward trend.
By region: Improvement in 7 out of 10 regions, with inbound consumption
and construction demand driving the improvement.

< Future outlook: Remain unchanged >While the performance of companies that are showing signs of recovery
will make a positive contribution, the economy is expected to remain
relatively flat due to many uncertain factors.

48
47

46

45.2

44.9

45
44

44.4

44.7 44.8 44.9

44.2

43.9

44.4

44.1

43.5 43.3

44.3
43.8 44.0 44.1

44.3 44.4 44.5 44.4

44.6 44.6 44.8 44.8

44.9

43
After 3 months

42

After 6 months

After 1 year

After 1 month41
400（Prediction→）

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July
2023
2024
2025
Projected future DI
45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.4 44.1 43.5 43.3 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.4 44.6 44.6 44.8 44.8 44.9
Change from July.2024
0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1
44.6 model.
44.9 45.2 45.4 45.7 45.9 46.0 46.2 46.4 46.6 46.7 46.9*: Upper
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation
Lower
43.3 43.3 43.3 43.2 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.9 42.9 43.0 42.9 42.9

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

July AugTDB Trends Research July 2024

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theJul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

Previous
Month

Total

45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.4 44.1 43.5 43.3 43.8

0.5

Large Firms

48.6 48.0 47.8 47.9 48.4 48.1 47.9 47.7 48.0 47.9 47.9 48.0 48.2

0.2

Small to Medium-sized Firms

44.6 44.3 43.8 44.1 44.2 44.3 43.6 43.2 43.8 43.4 42.6 42.5 42.9

0.4

Micro Firms

43.4 43.5 43.0 43.4 43.1 43.3 42.6 42.4 42.9 42.3 41.2 41.6 41.8

0.2

Ratio to theJul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

42.5 43.0 42.1 43.0 40.1 40.5 40.3 41.2 42.4 42.0 43.7 41.9 41.2

▲ 0.7

Finance47.4 48.8 46.8 47.3 48.0 47.0 47.7 47.7 49.2 48.8 48.0 47.6 48.5

0.9

Construction

47.8 47.4 47.1 47.5 47.8 47.2 47.7 47.5 47.0 46.6 46.0 46.4 46.9

0.5

Real Estate

48.8 49.6 48.5 48.7 47.9 47.5 48.1 48.3 49.3 49.3 47.7 48.0 48.2

0.2

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed43.1 44.5 42.6 43.4 44.0 44.6 43.6 43.4 44.8 44.4 42.9 42.7 42.7

0.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

43.6 42.6 43.0 41.5 40.8 40.1 37.9 37.7 39.0 38.1 37.4 37.3 36.1

▲ 1.2

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.9 38.2 39.0 40.3 41.5 40.3 39.9 38.1 38.7 38.0 37.9 37.5 39.0

1.5

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

36.1 36.1 36.9 37.7 37.2 38.5 37.3 35.7 36.4 36.4 35.3 34.4 36.0

1.6

Publishing,Printing

33.4 33.9 32.3 32.5 33.1 34.2 32.4 34.6 35.3 34.1 33.3 32.8 32.8

0.0

Chemical41.8 41.2 41.2 41.4 42.7 42.2 42.6 39.9 41.2 40.9 41.0 41.0 41.0

0.0

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

40.7 39.9 39.8 41.5 41.9 42.0 39.7 38.3 38.3 38.0 36.5 36.4 37.4

1.0

General Machinery

42.9 42.8 41.2 40.7 40.5 40.6 39.3 40.6 39.7 39.6 39.9 39.8 41.2

1.4

Electrical Machinery

42.9 42.8 42.4 42.3 43.0 42.5 43.6 42.5 41.4 40.7 41.0 42.5 42.5

0.0Transportation Machinery,Equipment

46.2 46.2 48.3 46.9 47.2 44.7 41.6 39.3 41.6 40.2 41.0 42.1 44.2

2.1

Medical Instruments and Equipment

45.4 42.9 44.2 42.9 43.4 44.3 43.9 43.3 45.5 42.9 41.9 46.5 44.5

▲ 2.0

Other

43.8 40.3 40.5 39.4 40.7 39.9 41.9 44.7 45.5 42.5 41.3 43.0 40.8

▲ 2.2

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

41.5 41.2 40.8 41.1 41.6 41.5 40.4 39.8 40.2 39.7 39.2 39.4 39.8

0.4

Food,BEWerages

46.4 47.1 45.8 43.3 44.5 45.7 43.1 43.7 44.5 44.6 42.9 42.5 42.3

▲ 0.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

39.5 38.0 38.1 36.1 36.0 36.3 36.9 36.8 37.1 35.2 36.3 36.3 35.8

▲ 0.5

38.4 38.0 38.1 38.0 38.3 38.9 38.0 37.8 37.6 37.8 36.0 36.4 37.5

1.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

38.2 38.6 38.5 38.4 40.1 40.7 39.6 38.2 40.1 38.4 36.4 35.2 36.3

1.1

Chemical

45.2 45.1 44.5 44.9 45.1 45.4 44.4 42.2 43.2 41.8 42.9 41.4 43.4

2.0

Recycled Resources

42.2 40.9 43.9 45.2 42.4 43.8 42.9 41.7 39.9 40.9 44.3 43.1 44.4

1.3

Mining Products

37.9 34.7 36.7 37.0 38.1 38.2 37.3 34.9 35.3 36.5 34.7 34.6 36.2

1.6

Machinery,Equipment

45.3 44.7 43.8 43.9 44.1 44.7 43.7 43.4 43.5 43.6 43.4 43.4 43.5

0.1

Other

42.6 42.7 41.7 43.1 43.2 42.9 42.0 41.1 42.5 40.3 41.1 39.9 40.8

0.9

42.9 42.3 41.9 41.7 42.1 42.7 41.6 40.9 41.4 41.0 40.5 40.1 40.7

0.6

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research July 2024

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theJul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

46.2 47.8 46.5 45.5 44.9 46.4 45.5 43.8 45.3 44.7 43.2 42.6 41.3

▲ 1.3

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

41.4 41.2 36.6 42.7 39.3 40.0 36.3 40.2 36.5 40.4 40.2 36.3 36.9

0.6

Drugs,Sundries

45.3 42.6 42.5 43.8 44.7 46.1 45.8 45.4 44.1 41.8 42.1 41.0 41.4

0.4

Furniture

32.5 30.2 36.3 27.2 32.4 32.7 34.0 32.1 30.3 33.3 28.7 27.2 35.8

8.6

Information Machinery and Equipment

41.3 40.2 42.7 42.5 44.0 42.7 41.8 42.3 45.8 44.3 40.8 43.2 46.1

2.9

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

40.9 42.0 41.7 42.4 40.2 39.7 42.4 41.2 40.9 41.4 42.3 43.4 39.2

▲ 4.2

Special Merchandise

38.8 38.7 39.1 39.4 38.1 38.3 37.8 37.7 40.2 40.2 38.7 38.6 39.7

1.1

Various Merchandise

48.1 48.5 45.9 45.3 44.3 44.1 42.7 40.9 44.6 42.9 44.6 44.4 45.5

1.1

Other

46.2 42.2 47.6 46.2 47.2 51.3 40.3 44.0 39.7 44.4 47.6 44.4 42.2

▲ 2.2

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service41.9 41.8 41.4 41.9 41.2 41.5 40.8 40.6 41.4 41.7 40.7 40.3 40.3

0.0

43.5 43.3 42.8 44.1 43.8 44.5 43.5 41.9 43.1 43.1 43.3 43.4 42.6

▲ 0.8

Restaurants

55.6 52.2 51.8 47.4 49.4 54.0 50.3 48.0 51.3 52.0 49.4 48.1 49.4

1.3

Postal,Telecommunications

60.4 54.8 57.4 59.5 57.1 54.2 56.1 51.9 54.2 61.7 56.7 52.8 51.9

▲ 0.9

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

44.8 43.5 46.3 44.1 50.0 42.7 41.7 43.6 43.6 46.9 40.7 41.7 43.6

1.9

Leasing,Rentals

49.8 49.0 49.2 52.5 52.9 51.6 50.3 50.5 51.7 49.4 49.7 49.0 48.6

▲ 0.4

Lodging, Hotels

56.6 55.5 57.6 59.7 64.3 56.9 51.3 55.3 60.6 60.4 55.1 52.1 53.8

1.7

Recreation

49.3 48.8 46.2 46.3 44.8 47.9 46.3 46.3 47.2 46.3 46.2 44.6 47.5

2.9

Broadcasting

44.7 46.1 45.6 42.6 45.6 43.3 44.1 47.1 47.4 52.8 45.1 45.6 47.2

1.6

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

48.4 47.4 47.8 46.8 49.0 46.9 47.3 46.7 46.7 46.0 47.5 46.1 47.3

1.2

Advertising

44.8 45.2 45.4 45.2 45.6 45.1 46.2 47.0 45.5 47.5 46.1 43.6 43.9

0.3

Information

57.0 56.4 55.5 56.0 55.4 56.3 56.1 55.7 55.3 55.4 54.5 54.1 54.1

0.0

Labor Dispatching

52.0 50.9 48.9 50.9 52.3 50.0 48.8 50.6 49.8 50.6 48.6 48.5 49.2

0.7

Special Services

52.2 51.3 51.2 52.0 51.1 50.3 50.5 51.4 52.4 51.7 49.9 50.5 51.8

1.3

Medical,Welfare,Public Health44.2 43.4 42.4 43.6 41.8 43.2 44.4 43.2 44.7 42.9 43.6 44.4 44.0

▲ 0.4

Education

40.7 43.8 46.4 45.6 42.6 44.4 43.7 43.1 46.3 44.6 43.9 47.4 50.9

3.5

Other

48.2 47.9 47.2 47.6 47.2 48.1 47.5 48.5 49.1 49.1 47.5 47.2 48.0

0.8

51.7 50.8 50.4 50.8 50.8 50.9 50.2 50.4 51.0 50.9 49.7 49.2 50.0

0.8

40.9 40.8 39.2 40.1 38.2 42.8 41.3 41.2 41.1 42.1 37.8 37.5 40.1

2.6

Total

Other

Ratio to theJul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

PreviousMonthHokkaido

45.6 44.8 43.6 43.7 43.3 43.3 41.6 41.8 42.4 42.8 42.4 42.8 44.1

1.3

Tohoku42.1 41.8 41.5 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.2 38.8 39.3 39.2 38.6 39.2 39.1

▲ 0.1

kitakanto

43.1 43.1 42.9 43.0 42.6 43.0 40.9 41.7 42.0 41.4 40.9 40.7 41.2

0.5

minamikanto

47.4 46.6 46.4 46.3 46.7 46.6 46.5 46.6 47.2 46.6 45.8 45.6 46.1

0.5

Hokuriku

43.6 43.1 42.5 42.1 42.3 42.5 40.0 39.8 41.4 42.4 42.3 40.7 41.4

0.7

Tokai

44.4 44.4 43.6 44.4 45.1 44.8 44.4 43.1 43.7 43.2 43.0 43.3 43.9

0.6

Kinki

43.8 43.6 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.6 43.6 43.2 43.6 43.7 42.6 42.5 42.9

0.4

Chugoku45.3 44.3 44.1 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.3 43.2 43.1 42.6 42.8 42.6 43.6

1.0

Shikoku42.6 41.8 41.2 41.4 41.3 42.5 42.2 41.0 41.1 41.2 40.2 39.9 39.4

▲ 0.5

Kyushu48.0 48.3 47.7 48.6 48.7 49.0 48.3 48.1 48.5 47.6 46.4 46.5 46.2

▲ 0.3

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research July 2024

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 27,191; Valid
responses: 11,282; Response rate: 41.5%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

517
775
898
3,357
573

Kyushu

1,211
1,858
761
379
953

Total

11,282

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

99

Finance169

Construction

1,732

Real Estate481（2,729）Wholesale（2,503）Retail（846）

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

97

Drugs,Sundries

54

Furniture27

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

309

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

133

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

163

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

204

Special Merchandise

237

82

Various Merchandise

44

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing

153

Food,Beverages

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

197

Chemical

357

Transportation,Warehousing

463

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

478

Restaurants

114

General Machinery

448

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

277

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

104

Leasing,Rentals

73

Lodging, Hotels

Others67

Recreation

Food,Beverages

318

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

161

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

15

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,218）

9
13
105
97
118
18

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

219

276

Advertising

110

130

Information

529

235

Labor Dispatching82

36

Special Services

359
134

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

253

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment787

Education

Others307

Others56
255
42

OthersTotal

3.Size56

Large Firms

1,781

15.8%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,501

84.2%

micro Firms

3,754

33.3%

Total

11,282100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,282

TDB Trends Research July 2024

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted July 18 – 31 2024

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research July 20245