TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for September 2023)

The economy worsened for second straight month,albeit slightly～ Increased energy and other cost burdens
and the rising trend toward saving money were negative factors ～(Companies researched: 26,991; Valid responses: 11,039; Response rate: 40.9%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp< Trend in September 2023: Worsening slightly >By industry: Worsened in all 10 industries. Rising costs, the weak yen,
and an overseas economic deceleration were negative factors.

The economic diffusion index (DI) in September 2023 was 44.4, down
0.5 points from the previous month, for a second straight month ofdeterioration.
The domestic economy continued to show a downward trend, albeit
slightly, in a wide range of regions and industries due to an increase inenergy and other cost burdens, the rising trend toward saving money,
and the stagnation of overseas economies.

By region: Worsened in all 10 regions for the first time in eight months.
Rising gasoline prices hit regional traffic.

< Future outlook: Remain unchanged >55

By scale: Worsened in all sizes for the first time in three months. PostCOVID business confidence was divided among companies.

While the continuation of wage increases is a key driver of the economy,
the domestic economy is expected to remain almost unchanged, with amix of improved corporate finances through price pass-through andhouseholds' rising trend toward saving money.

50
45

43.1 43.0
42.1 42.1
41.9 42.6

43.9 44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

44.4 44.5 44.8 44.9 44.8 45.0 45.1 45.3 45.7 46.0

40

46.2 46.3 46.4

After 3 months
After 1 month

After 6 months

After 1 year

35

0
30

（Prediction→）

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
2022
2023
2024
Projected future DI
41.9 42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.5 44.8 44.9 44.8 45.0 45.1 45.3 45.7 46.0 46.2 46.3 46.4
Change from September.2023
0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0*:
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation model.
Upper
46.2 46.7 47.0 47.0 47.3 47.6 47.8 48.3 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.1
Lower
42.7 42.9 42.8 42.6 42.7 42.7 42.8 43.1 43.4 43.5 43.6 43.7

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

Sep

TDB Trends Research September 2023

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to the
Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23

Previous
Month

Total

41.9 42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4

▲ 0.5

Large Firms

43.6 44.2 45.0 44.8 44.8 44.2 46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0 47.8

▲ 0.2

Small to Medium-sized Firms

41.6 42.3 42.7 42.6 41.6 41.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3 43.8

▲ 0.5

Micro Firms

40.7 41.1 41.4 41.3 40.4 40.9 42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5 43.0

▲ 0.5

Ratio to the
Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

35.8 36.4 37.7 37.9 37.4 38.9 41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0 42.1

▲ 0.9

Finance43.6 43.2 44.5 44.3 44.8 43.3 44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8 46.8

▲ 2.0

Construction

44.0 44.2 44.9 44.6 44.1 43.7 45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4 47.1

▲ 0.3

Real Estate

45.3 44.0 45.6 44.8 46.1 46.3 47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6 48.5

▲ 1.1

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed35.5 38.2 38.8 38.3 38.1 37.0 41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5 42.6

▲ 1.9

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.2 35.7 36.5 37.9 37.7 39.0 38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6 43.0

0.4

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

40.2 40.9 41.9 41.0 38.0 37.6 37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2 39.0

0.8

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

38.0 40.4 40.2 39.2 39.8 36.6 38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1 36.9

0.8

Publishing,Printing

30.0 31.8 32.9 32.4 31.7 31.6 34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9 32.3

▲ 1.6

Chemical

42.3 40.8 40.8 41.5 40.3 39.2 40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2 41.2

0.0

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

43.0 43.9 43.6 43.1 41.7 41.0 41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.8

▲ 0.1

General Machinery

45.4 45.8 45.9 44.9 43.3 43.7 43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8 41.2

▲ 1.6

Electrical Machinery

45.2 44.8 45.4 44.5 43.3 43.2 42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8 42.4

▲ 0.4

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

40.2 42.2 42.1 41.0 38.7 39.6 41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2 48.3

2.1

Medical Instruments and Equipment

46.2 46.1 46.1 46.3 46.5 49.0 46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9 44.2

1.3

Other

37.5 35.4 35.9 37.0 39.1 36.1 40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3 40.5

0.2

41.1 41.6 41.9 41.5 40.4 40.0 41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2 40.8

▲ 0.4

Food,BEWerages

35.8 37.4 38.8 38.2 37.5 38.3 42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1 45.8

▲ 1.3

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

29.9 32.4 33.1 34.0 34.7 35.9 38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.1

0.1

37.5 39.8 39.5 40.2 38.3 37.2 38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0 38.1

0.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

34.5 37.1 37.0 33.8 34.8 35.6 37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6 38.5

▲ 0.1

Chemical

43.4 42.6 43.8 43.5 42.8 41.7 43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1 44.5

▲ 0.6

Recycled Resources

47.0 46.3 43.5 46.2 43.3 43.2 41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9 43.9

3.0

Mining Products

39.8 39.7 40.2 39.9 38.5 37.1 37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7 36.7

2.0

Machinery,Equipment

43.3 44.1 44.1 43.8 43.0 43.3 45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.8

▲ 0.9

Other

38.2 39.0 39.6 40.9 40.0 40.9 42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7 41.7

▲ 1.0

39.6 40.6 41.0 41.0 40.1 40.1 41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3 41.9

▲ 0.4

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2023

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to the
Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

40.2 39.6 43.2 42.2 42.3 40.6 42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8 46.5

▲ 1.3

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

34.9 38.7 38.1 35.4 34.2 35.7 39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2 36.6

▲ 4.6

Drugs,Sundries

39.5 38.9 40.6 39.0 37.2 38.5 42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6 42.5

▲ 0.1

Furniture

40.0 37.8 36.2 31.0 34.2 33.3 39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2 36.3

6.1

Information Machinery and Equipment

37.1 35.1 35.3 37.2 36.3 37.5 40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2 42.7

2.5

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

38.8 37.6 37.2 35.3 38.2 38.7 40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0 41.7

▲ 0.3

Special Merchandise

34.0 33.5 35.4 34.8 34.4 35.3 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7 39.1

0.4

Various Merchandise

36.1 41.3 41.4 42.6 42.5 41.0 43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5 45.9

▲ 2.6

Other

32.1 36.5 44.9 41.1 42.3 44.8 41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2 47.6

5.4

36.7 36.8 38.2 37.4 37.5 37.7 40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.4

▲ 0.4

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service38.2 40.7 41.6 41.6 38.9 38.0 41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3 42.8

▲ 0.5

Restaurants

31.8 39.0 39.1 41.5 38.5 42.4 49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2 51.8

▲ 0.4

Postal,Telecommunications

51.9 52.4 50.0 48.3 47.6 44.4 52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8 57.4

2.6

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

36.1 31.1 32.3 36.7 32.4 32.1 39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5 46.3

2.8

Leasing,Rentals

45.6 47.5 48.4 47.4 46.8 47.4 48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0 49.2

0.2

Lodging, Hotels

37.4 53.3 54.8 52.2 48.3 48.0 59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5 57.6

2.1

Recreation

42.2 45.0 43.8 43.2 42.1 44.1 50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8 46.2

▲ 2.6

Broadcasting

46.1 43.1 41.7 39.5 40.7 41.1 42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1 45.6

▲ 0.5

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

42.8 42.8 43.6 45.6 42.9 42.6 45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4 47.8

0.4

Advertising39.3 40.9 40.3 39.7 40.2 41.4 43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4

0.2

Information

53.0 52.3 53.0 53.6 53.2 53.8 55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4 55.5

▲ 0.9

Labor Dispatching

47.4 48.8 46.5 50.0 48.5 47.9 47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9 48.9

▲ 2.0

Special Services

49.4 49.0 48.8 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.2

▲ 0.1

Medical,Welfare,Public Health41.7 43.2 43.6 42.8 42.9 41.5 42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4 42.4

▲ 1.0

Education

43.7 42.1 42.8 41.2 38.4 41.9 44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8 46.4

2.6

Other

42.8 43.3 43.5 44.0 42.2 44.3 46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9 47.2

▲ 0.7

46.3 47.1 47.3 47.7 46.6 47.4 50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8 50.4

▲ 0.4

37.2 37.9 38.2 36.7 36.5 37.0 38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8 39.2

▲ 1.6

Total

Other

Ratio to the
Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23

PreviousMonthHokkaido

40.7 41.2 40.9 40.8 40.1 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8 43.6

▲ 1.2

Tohoku39.3 39.9 40.3 39.4 38.0 37.2 41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.5

▲ 0.3

kitakanto

42.5 43.7 43.7 43.1 40.9 41.4 42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1 42.9

▲ 0.2

minamikanto

43.6 43.8 44.4 44.7 44.1 43.9 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6 46.4

▲ 0.2

Hokuriku

41.7 42.3 42.2 42.2 40.9 41.2 42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 42.5

▲ 0.6

Tokai

40.4 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.0 41.1 42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4 43.6

▲ 0.8

Kinki

41.5 42.3 43.0 42.7 42.0 41.8 43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2

▲ 0.4

Chugoku41.8 42.8 43.8 43.4 41.9 41.8 44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3 44.1

▲ 0.2

Shikoku38.7 40.3 40.0 39.3 39.0 38.6 40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8 41.2

▲ 0.6

Kyushu43.0 44.0 45.1 44.8 44.0 44.8 46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3 47.7

▲ 0.6

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2023

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 26, 991; Valid
responses: 11,039; Response rate: 40.9%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

497
743
879
3,273
578

Kyushu

1,185
1,839
757
362
926

Total

11,039

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

106

Food,Beverages

Finance

166

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

92

Drugs,Sundries

62

Furniture

17

Construction

1,727

Real Estate

468
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

330

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

100

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

137

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

214

Special Merchandise

201

85

Various Merchandise

53

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing（2,757）Wholesale（2,484）Retail（742）

100

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

152

Chemical379

Transportation,Warehousing

484

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

498

Restaurants

85

General Machinery

457

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

291

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

105

Leasing,Rentals

69

Lodging, Hotels

Others77

Recreation

Food,Beverages

317

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

157

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

14

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,071）

9
18
103
96
110
15

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

194

291

Advertising

109

84

Information

546

232

Labor Dispatching

88

30

Special Services

296
131

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

260

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment801

Education

Others312

Others42
229
34

OthersTotal

3.Size66

Large Firms

1,709

15.5%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,330

84.5%

micro Firms

3,596

32.6%

Total

11,039100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,039

TDB Trends Research September 2023

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted September 15– 30 2023

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research September 2023

5