Estimating emissions of Black
Carbon and other SLCFs within
CCAC activities
V. Foltescu, Z. Klimont, H. Vallack
IPCC Expert Meeting on SLCF, Geneva, May, 2018

Maximising Air & Climate Co-Benefits

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Need for comprehensive and harmonizedmethods to estimate SLCF emissions
BENEFITS
Authoritative guidance that includes the additional SLCF would improve:• Integration and the internal consistency between GHGs emission
inventories and non-GHGs emission inventories, within and across thevarious assessments (including IPCC’s)• Comparability in terms of the emissions inputs into the various climate
models used to inform policies• Consistency of climate mitigation strategies at global to local levels, andacross sectors• Consistency in providing uncertainty estimates for calculating emissions
relevant to mitigation of climate change and air pollution• Ability to monitor and evaluate progress in reducing emissions of those
SLCFs not covered by the Kyoto or Montreal Protocols

Need for comprehensive and harmonizedmethods to estimate SLCF emissions
BENEFITS (cont)
Authoritative guidance on SLCF would improve:• Ability to more reliably estimate wider benefits (health, food security, etc) bya harmonized approach for all emissions leading to formation of particulatematter and ozone• Ability of countries to estimate emissions of black carbon and co-emitted
substances according to authoritative global methodology and include blackcarbon emission reduction measures in the NDCs
• Transparency of national estimates, including potential future updates andrecalculations based on revised/updated guidelines• Ability for countries to include e.g. health benefits and food security alongwith other benefits supporting the SDGs

CCAC has been relying on emission estimates from:

Using LEAP-IBC todevelop emissions
estimates for CCAC
SNAP countries
Harry Vallack
Stockholm Environment Institute
University of York

Integrated
Benefits
Calculator

Model Pathway: Focus on impacts

Impact assessment of all emissions
Human
HealthCrop Yield
Loss

ClimateAir
pollutants

Short-lived
climatepollutants

Long-lived
greenhouse
gases
HFCs

Ozone

NH3

Organic
carbonSO2BlackcarbonNOx

PM2.5

COVOCs

CH4

N2O

CO2

Estimating emissions

www.sei.org

Estimating emissions:
Emission factors

www.sei.org

Availability of LEAP-IBC for national air quality
and climate change planningo LEAP-IBC is now available to governments and organisations for the countries
in the map, as these are countries for which we have PM2.5 coefficients.
Others will be added as further modelling is carried out

SEE https://www.energycommunity.org/ FOR DETAILSActions to implement priority measures

Application of LEAP-IBC results in national planning(from Ghana national SLCP plan: benefits by 2040)

Preliminary results, Daniel Benefor, Ghana EPA

Black carbon emissions from Ghana under different
scenarios (from draft national plan)
Currently agreed Plans
And Measures (PAMS)
not implemented
beyond 2011

Currently agreed PAMS
fully implemented asplannedNDC commitments fully
implemented

Preliminary results

Additional SLCP measures
fully implemented

The national SLCP plan covers: success of current PAMS; success of implementing
NDC commitments; promotion and implementation of additional SLCP measuresSummary❖ LEAP-IBC enables the estimation of emissions of BC (and co-emittedsubstances) - appropriate for countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
❖ The tool uses official sources (EMEP/EEA and IPCC) for default EFs whererelevant, supplemented by factors from peer-reviewed literature.
❖ Within the SNAP initiative, 12 countries currently using LEAP-IBC tocompile BC inventories and 18 more in the pipeline

www.sei.org

Global estimates for CMIP5, CMIP6, ECLIPSE,GAINS/IEA16
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GAINS/IEA16 ECLIPSE CMIP5

CMIP6 - Hoesly et al. (2017) Community Emission Data Systems paper
CMIP5 - Lamarque et al. (2010, JGR)
ECLIPSE - Klimont et al. (2017, ACP)GAINS/IEA16 – IEA (2016) Special Report on Air PollutionGreenhouse gas–Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)
Social development
and economic activities

Emission control options:~2000 measures,
co-control of 10 airpollutants and 6 GHGs)
Emissions

Costs
Optimization

Atmospheric dispersion
Health, ecosystems andclimate impact indicators

Policy targets

Emission estimation method• How….principally, Emission=Activity*emission factors but explicit
incorporation of technology (j, m) in activity (A) and emission factor (ef),considering impact across all included pollutants (y), control measureefficiency (eff) and its application rate (X)For carbonaceous species considering also BC,OC, PM balance:• Pollutants…SO2, NOx, NMVOC, CO, NH3, PM (size fractions), BC, OC, andKyoto GHG;
• Sources…~ 2000 sector-fuel-technology combinations; anthropogenic only

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_models3.html

LRTAP vs GAINS for EU28;
Sectoral differences

BC emission comparison, LRTAP vs GAINS
Nordic countries

GAINS model has been also applied and further developed at
the national level

GAINS also applied in several regional and global research activities: e.g., EU funded(ACCENT, CityZen, ECLIPSE), IEA, UNEP/CCAC, GEA, RCP8.5, EMF, SSPs

New EU funded activity (started 2018) addressing BC knowledge gaps andpolicy support focusing on Arctic Council and observer countries•While AC8 contribute less than 10% of global BCemissions, about 50% originates from AC8 andobserver countries

Map source: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=21717•Good platform for further discussion:
IIASA-GAINS model has been applied in bilateralprojects with most of the observer countries inAsia and Europe

Need for comprehensive and harmonizedmethods to estimate SLCF emissions
WHY?
• There is a large expressed demand from non-UNECE countries to develop emission
inventories for additional SLCFs beyond those covered by the Kyoto or Montreal Protocols.
• A comprehensive methodology and a database of default emission factors for theadditional SLCFs for all sectors, that has global coverage, with regional differentiation
where appropriate, is currently lacking.
• A large pool of data and information on emissions is already available. It can be
scrutinized, bundled and incorporated into a comprehensive emission inventory guidance.
• There is valuable experience in using existing UNECE-LRTAP black carbon guidelines thatcan serve the development of globally applicable guidelines for black carbon and coemissions.

• Climate analyses such as those underlying IPCC Assessments or UNEP Gap Reports include
all SLCFs but only as ‘expert judgments’Additional slides

Key data sources and assumptions in GAINS
model and scenarios•Methodology– Principles of the GAINS model: Amann et al., 2011
– PM, BC methodology: Klimont et al. (2002, 2017), Klimont and Kupiainen (2004, 2007)– Technical details in a number of earlier reports and papers available fromhttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at•

Activity data
– Energy: IEA World Energy Outlook (global); EUROSTAT and PRIMES model (EU); nationalexperts inputs– Agriculture: FAO (global); EUROSTAT, EFMA, and CAPRI model (EU)•Legislation (regular updates)– Published information about existing and committed emission limit values andreductions, e.g, diesel.net, CAI-Asia, EU Directives, etc.

•Emission factors (regular updates)– Peer reviewed papers, guidebooks, grey literature - documented in interim reports
available from GAINS web, most values accessible from GAINS-online modelGAINS applications• Europe (UNECE LRTAP, NEC Directive, CAFE program)• Asia (GAINS-Asia, UNEP/CCAC)• Annex I (primarily GHG)
• Arctic (Arctic Council Task Force on SLCF; focus on BC and CH4)
• Italy, Netherlands, France, Sweden, Ireland, China, India, Thailand,Korea, Indonesia, Iran, Vietnam (bilateral projects)• and global (ACCENT, IEA, UNEP, GEA, CityZen, ECLIPSE, RCP8.5, EMF, SSPs)

Arctic countries produce reports on SLCP emissions
Reference method for emission factors is EMEP/EEE Guidebook

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