ST17-A007

Recent Progress of Research andOperational Activities ofSolar Weather Forecasting at NAOC
Han HE, Hua-Ning WANG
Team Member: Zhan-Le DU, Li-Yun ZHANG, Xin HUANG, Yan YAN,Yu-Liang Fan, Xiao-Shuai ZHU, Xing-Hua DAI
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

AOGS 2011 – 8th Annual Meeting
8-12 August, 2011, Taipei

Solar weather - Origin of the spaceenvironment disturbances Conditions or activities on the Sun that caninfluence or disturb the space environment-- solar active regions (sunspot groups)-- solar flare-- coronal mass ejection (CME)-- solar energetic particle (SEP)-- EUV, X-ray and radio radiation-- filament (prominence)-- coronal hole (origin of high speed solar wind)-- solar cycle

History of solar weather forecasting
activities at NAOC
 Begin in 1969
- short wave communication- space missions
 Services for Chinese firstsatellite mission in1970
 Member of International Space
Environment Services (ISES)in 1990

The first satellite of China (1970)

Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China)
 Setup in 1991
 Four sub-centers Solar Activity Prediction Center(SAPC) at NAOC(headquarters of RWC-China)
 Space Environment Prediction
Center (SEPC) Ionospheric DisturbancePrediction Center (IDPC) Geomagnetic Storm Prediction
Center (GSPC) RWC-China’s tasks:(1) Data collection(2) User services(3) Information exchange withother RWCs

http://www.ises-spaceweather.org/

The International Space Environment Service(ISES) is a permanent service of the Federations ofAstronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis
Services (FAGS) under the support of theInternational Union of Radio Science (URSI) inassociation with the International Astronomical Union(IAU) and the International Union of Geodesy andGeophysics (IUGG).

Observations at NAOC

Vector Magnetogram
Huairou Solar Observing station

radiospectrometers

Fuxian Lake,
Yunnan Observatory

H-alphaSolar weather forecasting services at NAOC
 Short-term prediction (within 2 or 3 days)-- solar X-ray flare class within 2 days
(none, C, M, X)-- solar proton event probability within 3 days-- solar 10.7cm radio flux daily values within 3days
 Medium-term prediction (within 1 or 2 weeks)-- monthly mean sunspot number-- solar X-ray flare activity level
 Long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle)-- maximum value and phase of sunspot number
The daily solar activity forecasts are distributed both by webpages (http://rwcc.bao.ac.cn) and emails

Special services

Chinese first satellite mission (1970)

Shenzhou series of manned space flight

Chang’e series of moon exploration spacecraft

Researches on solar weather forecasting Currently available prediction models:-- solar flare short-term prediction models-- solar proton event short-term predictionmodel-- solar 10.7cm radio flux prediction model-- solar active longitude prediction model-- solar active level quantitative assessmentmodel-- solar 3-D coronal magnetic field NLFFF
extrapolation model Forecasting models in development:-- coronal mass ejection (CME) prediction
modelNew physical measures of magnetic field as input factor
for the flare and proton event prediction models
Maximum horizontal gradient

Active Region
NOAA 9574
2001-08-11 UT

Length of Neutral Line

Number of Singular Points

Physical measures reflect the complexities of the photospheric magnetic fieldNew artificial intelligence classifying algorithm for flareand proton events prediction models

Training magnetograms

Physical measures calculations
Forecasting magnetogram
Sample data set
Physical measures calculations

Prediction model

Prediction result

SVM-KNN training

Support vector machine combinedwith K-nearest neighbors (SVM-KNN )classifying method is employed toreplace the traditional statistics method
for prediction modelingQuantitative analyses of 3-D coronal magnetic fields forsolar eruptive event prediction (being developed)
Quantitative analyses of the 3-D coronal magnetic fields associated with theX3.4 flare event of the solar active region NOAA 10930
 Six magnetograms: 3 for pre-flare, 3 for post-flare Resolution: 1arcsec/pixel; grid number: 300x160x160
 Projection effect is corrected and the six magnetograms are co-aligned

Pre-flare

(1)

(4)

(2)

(5)

(3)

(6)

Post-flare

Alpha distribution at layer 11 of modeling grid

Total magnetic energy evolution

Operational platforms for solar weather forecastingand distribution at NAOC
Operational Platform

Application timeDistribution media

Supporting computer system

First generation

2001 – 2006

Web page

Simple database system anddata table; input observation
data by hand; run prediction
model by hand

Second generation

2006 – 2011

Web page; simple
English language page

Simple database system;complex data table; grab
observation data semiautomatically; prediction model
can be controlled by platform

Third generation(being developed)

2011 -Dynamic andInteractive web pages;
Complete English
language pages;
3-D computer
simulation interface

Dedicated database server;
Mass storage devices; grab andextract observation dataautomatically; run prediction
model automatically; 3-D virtual
reality (VR) techniqueWeb interface of the 2nd generation
operational platforms ( in Chinese language)

Home page: http://rwcc.bao.ac.cn

Admin Interface

3-D computer simulation – Virtual-Sun

3-D Virtual Earth(Google Earth)3-D Virtual Sun

Computer system architecture of the 3-D
solar activity visualization system
Client - Server (C-S)

Solar activity data center

Server side code

File dataservice(storagecapacity 10T)

Interface server fordata exchange

Databaseservice(storagecapacity 4T)

Internet connection

Clientsoftware

3-D solar activity
visualization system

Virtual-Sun Client interface
menu
Date Label

3-D
virtualimage ofthe Sun

Level/Class Representative Icons
For online experience (1996-2009 historical data), please visit: http://159.226.170.65/virtual-sun/

Perspective Virtual-Sun
 Monitoring real time solar activities
 Running prediction models
 Presenting forecasting results

 New observations
 1-meter Infrared Solar Telescope(Location: Yunnan Province, Fuxian Lake) Chinese Spectral Radio-Heliograph (CSRH)(Location: Inner Mongolia of China)
 Space-based solar telescope
A new generation operational solar weather monitoring andforecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near
future at NAOC.

Thanks !