The Australian region spaceweather network
Marshall R, D. Neudegg, P. Wilkinson, J. Kennewell1, G. Patterson,M. Terkildsen, G. Steward, M. Hyde, E. Smith, Z. Bouya, M. Francis, J.
Caruana, B. Paterson, N. Prestage, M. Layoun, N. Bukilic, R.
Jenssen, M. Parkinson, C. Thomson, C. Yuile

IPS Radio and Space Services
Bureau of Meteorology
1 Australian Space Academy

IPSNET - space weather sensor network

IPSNET covers 1/8th (12%) of Earths surface

Diagram by Dr Mike Terkildsen

Culgoora Solar ObservatoryCulgoora
Radio quiet zone Next to Australia Telescope National Facility.
No transmissions allowed. Excellent radio reception site.
Solar radio and optical
Magnetometers (IPS & MAGDAS)
Oblique HF radio Rx from NZ and TVL
Spectrograph 18-1800MHz (A to D band)Learmonth Solar Observatory
Learmonth (IPS-USAF facility)
RSTN – Radio Solar Telescope Network

8m antenna
25 MHz to 15.4 GHz
3 parabolic antennae
8 fixed frequencies (245, 410, 610,1415, 2695, 4995, 8800, 15400 MHz)GONG magnetic
Analysis of sunspots-> flare probability

Solar Radio Spectrograph (designedby IPS) sweeps from 25 to 180 MHz –fed by semi-bicone (low band) andtracking log periodic (high band)
antennae.
Operation from sunrise to sunset

GONG heliomagnetic observations

IPSNET Observatories
IPSNET sends data to the
Regional Warning Centre (RWC)
Australian Space Forecast Centre(ASFC)

Vanimo 5D ionosonde
Papua New Guinea
Hobart 5D ionosonde

Canberra 5D ionosonde

Vanimo scintillation monitor
Papua New Guinea
Camden IPS magnetometer

Antarctic riometer for PCA

Flare Forecast
Flare Forecast

Theophrastus. Data and Forecast for 2230Z 4/ 8/2011.
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/2/5Region Data
Forecast----------------------Region
McIntosh Region
Delta
LargestProbabilities
URSI
NumberClass
Evolution Config.
FlareCMX
Keyword=================================================================
1260
Hsx
stable
20 00
QUIET
1261
Dai
decaying
M
80 15 2
ERUPTIVE
1263
Ekistable90 70
ERUPTIVE
1266
Bxo
stable
200
QUIET
C408
Axx
stable200
QUIET
Full Disk Prediction is98 21 2
(McIntosh, P.S. 1990, Sol Phys., 125,251)

Magnetic gradient by Graham Steward
ASFC manager

Max Gradient• 0.025 - 0.09 – possible C-flares• 0.09 - 0.25 – possible C and M-flares• > 0.25 – possible C, M, and X-flares

Steward et al. doi:10.1029/2011SW000703, inpress.

Flare Alert

Flare Alert(G.Patterson)
IPS XRAY AND OPTICAL FLARE CORRELATION –PART D ISSUED AT 0245 UT
on 26 Feb 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIANSPACE FORECAST CENTRE
Optical flares with maximum within 10 minutes of X-ray maximum are correlated.
Approximate xray flare maximum 26 2 2004 0204 UT at Flux X1.1
Xray flare possibly optically correlated with the following H-alpha flare autodetected at IPS Culgoora Solar Observatory:
Start date/time
26 02 2004 01:55UTMax date/time
26 02 2004 01:59UTLat Long Imp. Bright.
014 014 2BrightEnd date/time
26 02 2004 02:41UTArea SEC Region Num00485
564

HF radio ‘Short Wave Fadeout’ (SWF) Alert

SWF Nowcast

IPS FADEOUT ALERT - PART A FOR HF FADEOUTS AFFECTING THE
AUSTRALIAN REGION ISSUE TIME: Thu Feb 26 13:00:24 EST 2004+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++A HF FADEOUT IS NOW UNDERWAY IN PART OF THE AUSTRALIANREGION. MORE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THISEVENT WILL BE ISSUED JUST AFTER IT ENDS.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Follow the progress of this event on the IPS Web site
http://www.ips.gov.au Click "Space Weather" Click "X-Ray Flux"++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Australian Space Forecast Centre IPS Radio and Space Services(61)(2)9213 8010 (phone) (61)(2)9213 8061 (fax) asfc@ips.gov.au+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Warning
ARBIS – Automated Type II, III
detection(Lobzin et al., 2009, 2010)

CME Nowcast

PLAIN PRESTO CULGOORA 03/0131UT NOV 2003

SOLAR RADIO EVENT 1: DRIFTING: 200 - 30 MHZ
START TIME: 0124 UTEND TIME: 0129 UTSPECTRAL TYPE: TYPE II BURSTIMPORTANCE: STRONGFUNDAMENTAL AND HARMONIC VISIBLE
ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED 699 KM/SFLARE OBSERVED IN REGION 10488 SHORTWAVEFADEOUT OBSERVED

Geomagnetic Storm Warning
Geomagnetic
Storm Forecast

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 02/46
ISSUED AT 23/0107Z DECEMBER 2002 BY THE AUSTRALIANSPACE FORECAST CENTRE.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 23-24 DECEMBER 2002_______________________________________________GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
23 Dec: Active to minor storm periods.
24 Dec: Active

CME Alert

CME between Sun and Earth decreases cosmic ray flux

Last updated 01 Nov 2010 07:30 UT
Forbush Decrease Observed ( 3%) at MAW 05/04/2010 DOY: 95 Hour: 17UT
Forbush Decrease Observed ( 3%) at MAW 04/08/2010 DOY: 216 Hour: 04UT

Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)
Alert for HF radioA(dB) = 10log10(Aqdc/Aday)“quiet day curve”
Ionospheric D-region absorptionof 30MHz background radiation

Ionograms completely absorbed
10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 31 05 2003 0505UT and is in progress
Casey 30Mhz Riometer Data at time of Issue: Casey 1.9 dB

Geomagnetic Storm Sudden commencement (SSC)
andSudden Impulse (SI) Alert
Simultaneous (global) response on magnetograms

MODERATE SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED (87nT)
IN IPS MAG DATA 04 11 03 0626UT
Mean Mag Parameters Pre/Post Impulse:
PrePostStn Unit
ImpulseImpulseChangehbt nT
15.0
118.9
103.9
cbr nT
29.1
131.7
102.5
tvl nT17.0
69.6
52.6
lem nT
43.2
130.4
87.2
clg nT
-34.4
54.7
89.1

Geomagnetic Storm Alert
Estimated Indices 05 Jun :Geomagnetic
Storm Alert
Darwin2222 1222

Townsville

1222 2222

Learmonth1212 2332

Culgoora

2211 2222

Canberra-311 2223

Hobart1211 2222

Australian Region 2212 2222

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ALERTISSUED AT 1716 UT ON 11 APR 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICESFROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 7 REACHED)PRELIMINARY AUSTRALIAN REGION K INDICES FOR 11 04 01: 2122 47--

Aurora Alert
Aurora Alert

Photo courtesy of Dallas & Beth Stott, Blackmans Bay Tasmania

SUBJ: IPS AURORA ALERT ISSUED AT 1818 UT on 31 Mar 2001
BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIANSPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS.
AURORA MAY BE OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHT TIMEHOURS IN GOOD OBSERVING CONDITIONS AT REGIONS AS
FAR EQUATORWARD AS MIDDLE LATITUDES.

HF COMMS WarningnormalfoF2Hourly area prediction of max usable
Frequencies (MUF) HF frequencies
from a Tx site to broadcast area.

depressed

SUBJ: IPS HF RADIO COMMUNICATIONS WARNING 10/21 ISSUED AT 23/2354Z OCTOBER
2010 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE. DEGRADED HF PROPAGATIONCONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 24 OCTOBER 2010
IF COMMS DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED TRY A LOWER FREQUENCY BAND_____________________________________________________________
HF COMMUNICATIONS FORECAST (AUSTRALIAN/NEW ZEALAND REGION) FREQUENCYBANDST-index
MUFs246812 16 22 26_____________________________________________________________-10-22%
2468812 16 16

Total electron content (TEC) Ionospheric Model
http://www.ips.gov.au/Satellite

Input data QC
Kalman filtering

IPP – ionospheric pierce points of GPS signals(M.Terkildsen, Z.Bouya and M.Francis)

SCHA – spherical cap harmonic analysis of TEC
Legendre polynomial basis functions

TEC (ϑ , ϕ ) =K max k∑ ∑Pk =0 m =0mm
nk ( m ) ( (cos(ϑ )[ g k cos(mϕ )Ionospheric scintillation
affects SATCOM and GPS

Plasmasphere model
Klobuchar model+ hkm sin( mϕ )Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in Pipelines

Enhanced corrosion
from GICs flowing inpipelines.
Can help to plan whereto place current
reversal devices

Map compiled and published by Great Southern Press. All copyright remains with Great Southern Press(www.pipeliner.com.au).

GICs in Pipelines
Geomagnetic Quiet Day

Geomagnetic Storm

GICs in Pipelines
Spectral Analysis: B vs PSP

πGIC- Index:[Marshall et al., 2010]

Z( f )=ife4fN

GICs in Pipelines
GIC Index: 7th November 2004

Red – H north-south component
Yellow – D east-west component

Green – dB/dt
Blue – GIC-index
Orange – PSP= pipe to soil potential

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in Power Networks

Increased Connectivity eg.,high voltage DC link to
Tasmania driven by• Market Competition• Robustness to demand
BUT longer power lines
means increased
susceptibility to SpaceweatherAEMO
Australian Energy
Market Operator

GICs in Power Networks
GICy-index Occurrences > 50
300200Cycle 22Cycle 23180250

GIC y Index

Peak of geomagnetic activity
140
on downslope of cycle

200

120
100

150

80
60

100

4020501985

1990
HBTCNB

1995
GNATime

ASP

2000

LRM

02010

2005
CTAKDU

Sunspot

Marshall et al., doi:10.1029/2011SW000685, in press

Sunspot Number160

GICs in Power Networks• New Zealand Previously

considered safe due to midlatitude location• Prior to 2001 no GIC related
faults recorded• Fault attributed to prematureageing• Analogous situation between NZ
south Island and Tasmania

Marshall et al., doi:10.1029/2011SW000685, in press

www.ips.gov.au/Space_Weather