2019/11/03 AOGEOS@Canberra

Area-based conservation and managementof coral reefs for climate change adaptationof tropical Pacific islands

Hiroya Yamano

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japanhyamano@nies.go.jp
1Topics• MPA (marine protected area) management planning at
Keramashoto (Kerama Islands) National Park, Okinawa,Japan• Science-based approach, by using coral distribution
modeling and the future projections based on in-situ
and earth observation data
• Results may directly contribute to Aichi Biodiversity
Targets 10 (vulnerable ecosystems) and 11 (protectedareas)

Distribution of corals and coral reefs
ReefBase (http://www.reefbase.org)

SST in winter: 18˚C
Kerama Islands, Okinawa, Japan

Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

https://www.t-marche.com/tripper/article/839/

Photo: Shuichi Endo

Mass coral bleaching due to high SST in the 2016 summer

Yabiji, Miyako Island, Okinawa, Japan4

Mass coral mortality due to the bleaching in 2016

Yabiji, Miyako Island, Okinawa, Japan

5

Coral monitoring network in JapanNo bleaching
Severely bleached

Government monitoring:
Monitoring Sites 1000 by Ministry of
the Environment (2003-)

Slightly bleached

Severely bleachedhttps://www.sangomap.jp
Citizen monitoring by divers:
ReefCheck (1997-)

Citizen monitoring by divers/snorkelers:
Sango (Coral) Map Project (2009-)

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Predictive modeling of coral bleaching and mortality
Coral distribution, bleaching and mortality data
In situ data by monitoring programs
Environmental variables
Earth observation data
Sea surface temperatures: (MUR-SST; AMSR-E, GCOM-W1, MODIS, and AVHRR blended)
Irradiance: UV-B (JASMES; MODIS)
Water current: Northward/eastward current velocity (HYCOM)
Modeling
Turbidity: k490 (NOAA OceanColor Database; MODIS)
Machine learning(Random Forest)

Probability of bleaching
Kumagai, Yamano, and Sango Map Project Committee (2018) PeerJ 7

Keramashoto (Kerama Islands) National Parkhttps://www.env.go.jp/en/nature/nps/park/kerama/index.html

Visitors to Kerama Islands in 2015: 224,000
Residents:
1,600

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PurposeManagement planning at Keramashoto National Park underchanging climate
Target items determined through discussion with park managers(Ministry of the Environment and Zamami/Tokashiki villages), diving
operators, fishermen, and local residents
・Conservation target: Coral
Collection of coral distribution and bleaching data (in-situ data+ coral distribution maps by earth observation satellite data)
Collection of environmental variables (earth observation data)・Spatial resolution: 10-100m (visible by divers)
Downscaling of the earth observation data
Identify the future coral ”micro-refugia” (areas with lowertemperatures) to inform the management and conservation9

In-situ survey
Water temperatures

Temperature logger

Water level meter

Currents and water levels

Current
meter

Validation of current velocity modeling10Model validation
Water temperature

Water level

Current velocity–– Observed–– Modeled
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Downscaling based on modeling physical environment
2 km

Original SST(MUR-SST, 1 km resolution)

Downscaled SST(100 m resolution)

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Future projection of coral bleaching and mortality
Present現在 (2008–2017)

012

345≤

+0.5 °
C+1.0 °
C+1.5 °
C+2.0 °
C

10 年間の死亡回数
Mortality
occurrence/10yrs

10 km
Species distribution model was based on Kumagai et al. (2018) PeerJ

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SST +1.5˚C
2 km

Diving buoy sites
Coral habitat bysatellite data analysis
Mortality occurrence
5Areas where balance between coralconservation and use is needed
and current conservation efforts (e.g., removalof coral-eating starfish) might be concentrated

31/10 yrs
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Publication of a guide for climate change adaptationin protected areas (currently in Japanese only…)
Flowchart to set up conservation measures

Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (2019)15

Concluding remarks• Small islands in the tropical Pacific depend heavily on
ecosystem services of coral reefs, including tourism,
fisheries and island formation/maintenance• Area-based conservation and management of coral reefs
are essential for sustaining biodiversity and the ecosystemservices for the Pacific islands under climate change• Data obtained by in-situ monitoring network and earth
observations would be of great help to MPA planning andmanagement• Results may directly contribute to Aichi Biodiversity Targets
10 and 11, and could further contribute to the Post-2020 byenhancing area-based conservation measures andecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) to climate changeAcknowledgments
The works were conducted in collaboration with
Ministry of the Environment, Japan (Kerama),
Zamami and Tokashiki villages (Kerama),
citizen divers/snorkelers

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