DIPLOMACY
Vol.71, Jan. / Feb. 2022

Contents of Features

67

Russia’s hard-line stance towards NATO and its domestic background74

Popular discontent and power struggle in turbulent Kazakhstan: The difficulties of dismantling the78

The diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics: Europe’s expectations

82

Democracy in Latin America at a crossroads: Regional mechanism in support of democracy protection is weakening

The two principles of Russia’s actions that are making the situation in Ukraine tense are the logic of security, which wants tokeep the former Soviet Union countries in its sphere of influence, and the logic of domestic politics.
Shuhei Mizoguchi (Hosei University)
Nazarbayev regime
Behind the large-scale armed clashes that erupted in Kazakhstan are power struggles among leaders, the agendas ofneighboring countries, and criticism of the political system led by the former president who imposed a “parliamentary rule.”
Tomohiko Uyama (Hokkaido University)

In response to the U.S. government’s call for a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, Europeancountries have shown a variety of views.
Norito Kunisue (Asahi Shimbun)

The Organization of American States (OAS) is being shaken up by an increasingly authoritarian regime that has threatened
to leave the regional framework. The decline of U.S. power and the conflict between the left and the right in the region are
upsetting democracy in Latin America.
Hiroyuki Urabe (Dokkyo University)98

Oil market becomes politicized: The structure of instability

104

Japan’s strategy and challenges toward decarbonization: In the wake of COP26

110“Freedom of movement” and border control measures during the COVID-19 Crisis

118

TREND2022North Korea’s New Year’s Report talks about the continuance of status quo

120

Libya shaken by the postponement of the Presidential election

124

Post-pandemic choice made by Canada - the country founded on immigrants

128
133

The rise in the price of oil, which began with the coordinated production cut by OPEC plus in May 2020, will lead to higher
prices worldwide. The conflict between producing and consuming countries, as well as the global trend toward
decarbonization are pushing these trends.
Ken Koyama (The Japan Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
The author who has covered COP26 points out the gap between Japan and the rest of the world in accelerating
decarbonization and discusses the need for a clear commitment to a “coal-free,” bold institutional design.
Kyoko Gendatsu (NHK)The spread of COVID-19 poses a challenge to the “movement of people,” which is inseparable from globalization. In an age
when “isolation” is no longer possible, border control measures based on appropriate risk assessment are necessary.
Yoshiyuki Sagara (Asia Pacific Initiative)

Atsuhito Isozaki (Keio University)

Amane Kobayashi (Embassy of Japan in Libya)

Yasuhisa Kawamura (Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Embassy of Japan in Canada)

Manga as culture, manga as a diplomatic tool: Looking back at the 15 years of Japan International Manga Award

Machiko Satonaka (Manga artist)

Tokyo Nutrition for Growth Summit 2021: Solving world hunger and obesity
Teiji Nakamura (The Japan Dietetic Association)

Special Feature:

The World and Japan’s choicein 2022
6

Cover story Interview

Japan's Diplomacy in 2022: Harmonization with like-minded countries is essential for
economic security
Yoshimasa Hayashi (Foreign Minister of Japan) and Akihiko Tanaka (GRIPS)

16Roundtable: Japan and the stratified International order – Norms, democracy, and economic

security

The U.S. and China hold different views of regional order. Confrontation has thus become more structured, expanding into a new
diplomatic realm of values, rules, economics, and technology.
Maiko Ichihara (Hitotsubashi University), Kosuke Saito (Sophia University), Ryo Sahashi (University of Tokyo), Sanae Suzuki(University of Tokyo) and Junko Tanaka (NHK)30

Security environment facing Japan and issues for strategic review

34

Deepening Mutual Distrust between the U.S. and China in the Indo-Pacific: No silver bullet for
improving relationship

The security environment surrounding Japan is rapidly deteriorating due to the intensifying competition between the U.S. andChina and nuclear-armed states that are attempting to change the status quo. Analysis and strategic thinking are needed toredirect security resources to areas that are truly necessary.
Masashi Murano (Hudson Institute)

The U.S. and China are competing to invest resources in the Indo-Pacific region, which could bring certain benefits - but thedanger of a zero-sum confrontation cannot be ignored. How should the conundrum of U.S.-China relationship be resolved?
Patricia M. Kim (Brookings Institution)

39

Does human rights violations sanctions law have any effect? U.S. Magnitsky Act – it’ssignificance and criticisms

The Magnitsky Act, which is seen as a means of “human rights diplomacy,” is spreading to the EU and other countries. The
Magnitsky Act is being applied to Myanmar, China, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. Will the sanctions bring about a change inthe behavior of sanctioned countries?
Hiroki Sugita (Kyodo Tsushin)

43

China in 2035

49

“China factor” rocks Taiwan

53

Multitiered “democracy problem” of ASEAN

60

Roundtable series: Can Europe be a leader of the international order?
1. Europe's Responsibility and Strategy in the Ukraine Crisis
Why has Europe failed to stop the Ukraine crisis? What is Europe trying to do to protect itself in the Ukraine crisis in light of thefact that it has continued to avoid taking tough action against Russia?
Tsuyoshi Goroku (Nishogakusha University) and Atsuko Higashino (University of Tsukuba)

China has declared that it has reached a lull in the long-term socialist strategy of Deng Xiaoping and has deepened its
confidence in the one-party rule of the Chinese Communist Party. What are China's plans and strategies for strengthening its“Chinese power” and heading into 2035?
Tomoki Kamo (Keio University)
China’s aim is to create a public opinion in Taiwan that accepts reunification through its daily efforts. There is a limit to what canbe done while protecting Taiwan's democracy and the focus will be on how to avoid isolating Taiwan.
Koichiro Ishida (Asahi Shimbun)
Authoritarian rule is increasing in the Philippines and Thailand. However, ASEAN has come to prioritize domestic stability overdemocracy so the situation cannot be captured by the construct of “democracy versus authoritarianism.”.
Maki Aoki (JETRO)