Policy for Better Air Quality in Asia

(Draft)

The language should be revised.
Keiko Hirota**

Japan Automobile Research Institute,2530 Karima Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-0822 Japan
Tel:+81-29-856-0767,
Fax:+81-29-860-2388
e-mail:khirota@jari.or.jp
1.

Introduction

Asian countries have been facing a major air pollution problem due to rapid economic growthand motorization. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), mortality caused by air
pollution in large cities is estimated to be 800,000 people per year. Two-thirds of this mortality is
believed to be concentrated in Asian cities. Regulations and standards are the first requirement
for reducing emissions from fixed and mobile sources.
In order to reduce automobile emission, governments of Asian countries have been making
efforts to introduce vehicle emission regulations for new vehicle. However, emissions fromuncontrolled vehicle in-use has detrimental effects on air qualities, and the consumers then haveto cover the costs related to health effect problems. Taking into consideration the health costs andeconomic development, early implementation of air pollution reduction policies will benefit
economic development in the future. In other words, prompt political implementation will be acost-effective method in the long run.
Until recently, there has been little guidance regarding cost calculation of adulteration, which
would enable the assignment of priorities to different policies. This paper attempts to explain
effective policies by introducing monitoring system for vehicle in-use. This paper emphasizes amonitoring such as registration system and Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) system for vehicle
in-use. Registration and I/M are essential in the detection of high emitter vehicle. However, theregistration and I/M systems used in developing countries are observed to share similar
characteristics, such as a weakness of government initiative, inadequate operation by
government bodies (which results from a lack of human resources and analysis facilities). In orderto establish efficient registration and I/M systems, this paper proposes the manner in which agovernment can increase its initiative as a prerequisite condition.
2.

Background to Air Pollution in Asian Cities

Asian countries have been facing a major air pollution problem due to rapid economic growth,
motorization and urbanization. Figure 2-1 shows GDP per capita and number of vehicle per1000 people 1985-2002. As the first observation, compared to 1975 Japan, Bangkok (2000) andKuala Lumpur (2000) are already beyond in terms of vehicle number per 1000 people. These
Asian cities have faster motorization process in terms of GDP per capita. As the second
observation, national average level follows city level in accordance with economic growth. The
total number of car stock still increase. Japan has 427 units per 1000 people. In the future, there
is high probability to achieve 400 units per 1000 people in your country.

1

427
Japan
2002

＝

Number of Vehicle
per 1000 People

250

Kuala
LumpurBangkok

200

Japan
1975

154

150

Malaysia

100

Jakarta
Manila50

ThailandPhilippines＝

Indonesia

0
0

1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

23,8836,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 44,846
12

GDP per capita (US$ 1995, Exchange rate)

Figure2-1

GDP per capita and Number of Vehicle per 1000 people
Data: Philippines Statistical Year book 2003,
BPS Indonesia Statistical Yearbook 2003,
JETRO, IEA, JAMA, FOURIN, UITP

Table 2-1 shows air quality monitoring in Asian large cities with the criteria of WHO standard at
1990 and 2005. In general, air pollution exceeds WHO standard. It is getting serious from 1990 to
the latest year. According to WHO report in 2002, 2/3 of death by air pollution is concentrated in
Asian countries. When Asian country achieves 400 units per 1000 people, air pollution should
be reduced by knowledge and technology.
In general, air pollution is getting serious from 1990 to the latest year. According to the World
Health Organization (WHO), mortality caused by air pollution in large cities is estimated to be
800,000 people. Two-thirds of death concentrated in Asian cities. With concerns of Urbanization,
economic growth and motorization, it is urgent matter to reduce air pollution in Asian cities.
Table 2-1 Air Quality Monitoring in Asian Large Cities

Latest Year（2002-2005）
C ity
Jak arta
2 004
Kua la Lu mpu r
2 004
Manila2002
Ban gkok
20 05
Ho Chi M in h City 2002
Beijing
2 005
Sha nghai
2 005

CO
E
C
C
A
C
E
N.A .

NO2
C
D
E
D
E
E
E

City

CO
C
C
D
B
N.A.
D

NO2
B
C
D
B
N.A
D

P M10
E
D
E
D
E
D
D

O3
C
C
D
B
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

SOx
D
B
C
C
E
C
E

Le ad
D
N.A .
B
B
E
N.A .
N.A .

PM10
D
B
D
E
N.A
E

O3
C
C
D
B
N.A.
C

SOx
C
B
B
B
N.A
A

Lead
C
C
C
C
N.A
B

1990
Jakarta
1990
1990
Kuala Lumpur
Manila1990
1990
Bangkok
Ho Chi Minh City 1990
Beijing
1990

A
B
C
D
E

5 0 % b e lo w fr o m W HO s ta n d a r d
W i th i n W H O s ta n d ar d
W i th i n 2 0 0 % o v e r fr o m W HO s ta n d a r d
W i th i n 3 0 0 % o v e r W H O st an d a rd
3 00 % o ve r fr o m W H O sta n d a rd

Data sources: Official sites of AQM in each country, WB, ADB reports

The introduction of emission and fuel regulations are merely the first step toward politicalimplementation. In recent times, governments in Asian countries have been introducing emission
regulations for new vehicles. Table 2-2 shows the time schedule of the emission standard andsulfur content for new gasoline-driven passenger vehicles in Asian countries. The common target
is the introduction of EURO2 by 2008 and EURO4 by 2012. In order to meet the EURO2 standard
level, it is important to install catalytic converters to meet the emission standard level (CO, HC,
NOx, etc.). Since lead and sulfur in gasoline cause a malfunction of the catalytic converter,
leaded gasoline must be phased out. Sulfur content should be below 500 ppm. Leaded gasoline
in Asian countries is supposed to have been phased out already. Lowering the sulfur content is
the main focus for introducing a stricter emission standard.
However, emission reduction from mobile source is still not enough because weak monitoring
systems hardly detect fuel adulteration and high emitter vehicle in the market. As next step,vehicle maintenance and quality management can be proposed as a next step. The following
three examples show the effectiveness of monitoring.
First, the fuel monitoring results for lead content obtained by the Ministry of Environment inIndonesia and an Indonesian environmental NGO called KPBB have been observed to increase
after the introduction of EURO2. In 2003 and 2004, prior to its introduction, all the samples(number of samples = 31 per year) were observed to have met the lead standard. In 2005, after
the introduction of EURO2, 12 out of 31 samples were noted to have exceeded the lead standard.
Second, according to GTZ report (2005), vehicles which did not pass inspection test emit 1.7-7
times higher CO level than vehicle which passed inspection test.
Third, a voluntary I/M bus project called "Blue Sky project" in 2000 in Jakarta reduced HC 49%,
CO 53%, Soot 61%, and fuel saving 5%.
The emission and fuel regulation can be supported by efficient monitoring systems such as
registration, inspection, fuel quality monitoring, air quality monitoring. These regulations should bealso supported by public awareness.
Table 2-2 Time Schedule for Emission Regulations (upper line) and Fuel Quality (lower line)-Gasoline passenger vehicle-

Country
Indonesia
Malaysia
ULG
2000

2000

2001

2002

2003

5000
Euro1
3000

Philippine

1000

ULG
1996

Euro 1

ULG

Euro1

2005
Euro2
500

Target: Euro 2
2006
2007

Euro2

Singapore Euro 1

Euro2
500 (plan)

ULG

10000

Euro4

Euro4

50
Euro3
150

500

Vietnam

Target: Euro 42010 2011
2012

Euro3

Euro3

Euro 2

2009

ULG

500

ULG
2000

2008

Euro2M Euro3
500

1000
Thailand

2004

Euro2
5000

Euro 3 Euro4 (Tentative)

500

Emission level and requirement of sulfur reduction
ULG
Euro2 : ＜ 500 ppm: Unleaded Gasoline
16
Euro3 : ＜150 ppm
Euro4 : ＜ 50 ppm
Target : Target year agreed by AMEICC2004

Data Source: Governmental documents, AMEICC 2004

3.

Operational Problems in Monitoring System

How to assure air quality improvement? After air pollution act is introduced, these policies should
be introduced. Since there are many options for vehicle maintenance and quality management, itis necessary to evaluate policy option under the actual situation. First, real vehicle usage should
be surveyed such as car stock by vehicle age, vehicle speed and emission factor on road. By
modeling a typical driving cycle, total emission volume in the air quality is estimated at thesimulation. From the result of simulation, main problem is extracted. After problem extraction, alist of countermeasures is ready. From the list of countermeasures, optimal policies are selectedby some criteria. The selected policy need to be revised at activities level and prioritized from apoint of cost performance, health impact and other criteria. Finally the best solution under theactual situation will be proposed.
In this section, it is an attempt to estimate car stock by emission standard to understand how
much share of vehicle is controlled / uncontrolled by emission standard as the first step of air
quality improvement.
Table 3-1 shows vehicle type of inspection, interval and deregisters process in Asia. Comparedto Japan, inspection system conduct technical control for relatively limited vehicle type; in fact, thenumber of inspected vehicle is automatically limited so that the inspection system is unable toreflect the overall emission quality situation in the real world. Another finding is that deregister
process does not exist in many Asian countries in general so that registration system is unable toreflect real car stock statistics. In this section, it is an attempt to estimate passenger vehicle stockby emission standard in ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) .
Table 3-1

Vehicle Type for Inspection, Interval* and Deregister Process in Asia

Inspection
interval(Year)

Passenger Vehicle

Thailand

Passenger vehicle，Pick Up 1-1-1（V ehicle age > 7
years）

P hlippines

No inspection

Malaysia

No inspection

Indonesia
Japan

Motorcycle or 3 wheelers

D eregister
Process

1-1-1-

No

No inspection？

2-0.5-0.5-0.5-

2-0.5-0.5-0.5-？

No inspection

0.5-0.5-0.5-

C om m ercial 3 wheelers
0.5-0.5-0.5-

No

3-2-2-

1-1-1-

3-2-2- ( >250cc)

Yes

G overnment Documents

Governm ent D ocum ents

G overnment Documents

JAR I-UN Conference
2001

JARI-U N Conference 2001

JAR I-U N Conference
2001

Commertial Vehicle< 3.5t Truck 3-3-3>3.5ｔ T ruck 1-1-1<20 seats Bus 3-3-3>20 seats Bus 1-1-1Tuk Tuk 1-1-1Taxi 0.5-0.5-0.50.5-0.5-0.5（Taxi，Jeepney）

R eference

Hearing* Valid period until next inspection. Number shows "First inspection year-Second inspection year-Third
inspection year". Ex) 1-1-1- : Annual inspection

In order to estimate car stock, a survival rate should be determined by the following equation(Eq1).
Assuming maximum length year for a passenger vehicle as 30 years, the survival rateof the year 2000 is applied for a cohort model. As a value of constant, elasticity of new car sales

in terms of scrappage is applied.
t

Dt = a (t-M)

Eq 1

D: Survival ratet: Vehicle age at the year 2005
M: Maximum length year for a passenger vehicle. (M=30)
a: Constant

By using cohort model and the survival rate of vehicle in the year 2000, Figure 3-1 shows
estimation of car stock by vehicle age in ASEAN 4 countries. It is estimated with assumption withnew car sales growth 1% per year by 2012, which is the common target year for EURO4
introduction for ASEAN countries. In ASEAN 4 countries, most of the vehicle in the car stock ismore than 11 years. Figure 3-2 shows estimation of total passenger vehicle stock by emission
standard in ASEAN 4 Countries. This results show a half of passenger vehicle is uncontrolled at
the year 2012. The result indicates that maintenance of vehicle in-use is important to reduce
emission from vehicle sector. Taking into consideration the health costs and economic
development, early implementation of emission regulation for new vehicle toward the target year
2012, registration system and I/M system will benefit economic development in the future. In
order to establish efficient registration and I/M systems, a government needs to increase its
initiative, effective policies and public awareness as a prerequisite.
10 0 %
80%
60%

1 - 5 ye ars

40%

1 1 ye ars -6 - 1 0 ye ars

20%0%
Th a ila nd

Figure 3-1

In d on esia

P h ilip p ine s

M a la y sia

Estimation of Car Stock by Vehicle Age in ASEAN 4 Countries

100%
80%
Un c o n tr o l l ed
60%

EURO 4EURO 340%
20%EURO 2EURO 10%

Figure 3-2

Estimation of Passenger Vehicle Stock by Emission Standard in ASEAN 4 Countries

4.

Conclusion

In order to reduce automobile emissions, governments of Asian countries have been making
efforts to introduce vehicle emission regulations. It is also necessary to adjust the fuel property torender it suitable for the technology level of the emission reduction equipment that is used after
treatment. This paper emphasizes a monitoring such as registration system and Inspection and
Maintenance (I/M) system for vehicle in-use. Vehicle emission performance has detrimental
effects on air quality, and consumers then have to cover the costs related to vehicular problems.
As the first step, this paper is an attempt to estimate passenger vehicle stock by emission
standard in ASEAN 4 Countries. The results shows early implementation of emission standard for
new vehicle and efficient registration and I/M system will benefit economic development in the
future. In other words, prompt political implementation of air pollution reduction will prove to be acost-effective method in the long run.
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