TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for February 2021)

Domestic economy turned positive
for the first time in three months

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Consumer spending-related economy remained at a low level, andbusiness confidence was viewed differently among business sectors ～（Companies researched: 23,702; Valid responses: 11,073; Response rate: 46.7%;
Survey start date: May 2002)< Overview of February 2021: Downturn trends have bottomed out >The economic diffusion index (DI) in February 2021 was 35.8, up 1.9 points
from the previous month for the first time in three months. The domestic
economy turned positive for the first time in three months owing to expansionof production, etc., although things were viewed differently among businesssectors.

By industry : The economy picked up mainly in manufacturing, but
continued to remain at a low level in services for individuals.
By size : The economy turned positive in all sizes for the first time in threemonths, and was pushed up by household consumption.
By region : The economy in all ten regions took an upturn for the first timein four months.

< Future outlook: Gradual upswing from spring onwards >The economy is expected to gradually improve from spring onwards, albeit
with downward risk associated with the infection status.

5045403530

25201538.7
32.5
25.8 25.2

27.6

29.1 29.7

31.6

33.8

35.4 35.0

33.9

35.8 36.1 35.9 36.4 37.3

38.3

40.8
39.0 39.9

41.7

42.5 42.8 43.8

After 1 year
After 1 month

After 3 months

After 6 months（Prediction→）

0Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2020
2021
2021
Projected future DI
38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 36.1 35.9 36.4 37.3 38.3 39.0 39.9 40.8 41.7 42.5 42.8 43.8
Change from February.2021
0.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.2 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.0 8.0
Upper
36.9 37.0 to37.8
40.2
41.1 42.1 43.2 44.2 45.2 45.7 46.7*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated
the 38.9ARIMA
model.
Lower
35.3 34.7 34.9 35.6 36.4 36.9 37.6 38.4 39.1 39.8 40.0 40.8

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research February 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theFeb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

PreviousMonthTotal

38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8

1.9

Large Firms

42.0 34.8 28.2 28.1 30.1 31.7 32.4 33.9 36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3 38.21.9Small to Medium-sized Firms

38.0 32.0 25.3 24.6 27.0 28.5 29.1 31.1 33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4 35.3

1.9

Micro Firms

38.8 32.3 25.4 24.6 27.8 29.4 30.0 32.0 33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8 34.7

1.9

Ratio to theFeb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

37.9 32.8 28.2 25.1 29.6 31.4 31.0 30.3 34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9 33.8

2.9

Finance42.2 33.3 27.3 28.7 32.4 31.5 32.6 35.3 38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1 38.3

2.2

Construction

47.8 41.5 33.9 33.5 36.3 37.5 38.4 40.4 41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4 40.6

1.2

Real Estate

42.0 31.6 21.9 23.5 29.2 32.5 33.1 35.6 36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5 38.3

2.8Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed34.5 28.4 24.8 24.6 27.2 29.6 30.5 32.0 34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7 30.8

0.1

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

29.3 23.2 16.7 17.7 17.9 19.8 20.3 23.5 24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5 26.0

1.5

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.2 33.4 29.2 26.5 28.1 28.3 29.8 31.3 35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3 37.2

▲ 0.1Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

32.0 29.2 24.0 21.4 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.1 26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6 29.4

1.8

Publishing,Printing

29.7 23.1 16.8 14.4 16.0 15.8 18.8 20.4 21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2 22.2

2.0

Chemical

35.8 32.1 27.5 25.3 25.9 27.3 27.8 31.1 34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0 40.9

2.9Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

32.9 29.0 23.6 21.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 25.4 29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9 37.0

3.1

General Machinery

35.4 31.1 25.3 23.6 23.5 24.6 25.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6 36.9

3.3

Electrical Machinery

38.5 32.7 27.6 26.1 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.9 33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1 39.6

3.5

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

36.5 34.2 22.2 18.2 18.1 21.2 24.2 27.8 34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1 40.3

0.2

Medical Instruments and Equipment

39.0 34.8 27.2 26.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 30.2 32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9 42.4

4.5

Other

36.8 31.1 20.7 19.8 23.9 25.2 22.8 26.3 29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5 31.4

▲ 0.1

34.9 30.3 24.7 23.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 27.8 31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4 35.6

2.2

Construction Materials,Furniture,Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total
Food,BEWerages

33.1 25.6 21.3 21.0 24.5 27.3 27.2 30.2 32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8 29.2

2.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

22.0 16.4 10.3 11.4 15.8 18.2 18.0 19.4 22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2 19.8

▲ 1.4

38.5 34.4 27.9 27.7 29.6 30.2 30.4 31.7 33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7 34.8

0.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

33.5 27.5 22.0 19.1 19.0 21.9 23.2 24.0 26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3 29.3

3.0

Chemical

35.5 33.2 28.9 27.4 27.6 29.2 29.5 30.1 32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3 37.7

3.4

Recycled Resources

27.1 21.2 18.7 18.8 23.8 24.5 27.8 30.2 32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6 42.4

▲ 3.2

Mining Products

31.9 27.8 23.2 22.8 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.4 30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6 33.4

0.8

Machinery,Equipment

38.2 33.0 25.9 25.1 27.4 29.0 28.6 30.6 33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6 36.7

2.1Other

31.5 26.5 21.4 19.8 23.1 25.1 25.4 27.6 30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0 31.3

2.3

34.4 29.4 23.7 23.0 25.3 27.0 27.1 28.9 31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6 33.3

1.7

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theFeb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

PreviousMonthRetailFood,BEWerages

36.7 25.8 26.3 27.4 30.8 30.7 29.1 34.0 38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8 33.1

▲ 0.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

24.2 16.2 11.4

23.6 24.7 24.0 19.9 27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7 21.4

▲ 1.3

Drugs,Sundries

34.7 27.5 28.7 25.3 32.7 32.7 31.3 32.6 33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2 32.5

2.3

Furniture

29.2 22.6 10.8 15.5 31.7 40.0 38.9 38.5 37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4 36.7

2.3

Information Machinery and Equipment

36.0 28.4 19.3 21.9 33.8 29.8 30.5 30.6 34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3 36.3

8.0

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

32.9 27.9 17.0 15.8 25.4 29.3 29.3 32.4 34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7 37.6

1.9

Special Merchandise

34.7 27.4 20.2 19.9 27.7 30.2 30.0 31.6 33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6 35.5

2.9

Various Merchandise

34.4 29.3 32.3 29.9 34.5 40.9 36.9 37.0 37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7 36.2

▲ 2.5

Other

43.9 31.8 26.9 30.6 31.8 26.7 25.9 33.3 33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3 33.3

3.0

34.1 26.7 21.2 21.1 29.1 31.0 30.3 32.1 34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9 34.5

1.6

34.0 27.7 22.4 22.7 21.5 24.2 25.4 28.1 30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0 31.7

1.7

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service8.8

Restaurants

32.3 14.2

13.8 13.7 12.7 14.5 18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3 12.8

2.5

Postal,Telecommunications

57.1 50.0 30.3 33.3 43.3 41.7 42.6 46.7 41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3 38.1

▲ 8.2

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

46.7 40.5 28.4 32.4 34.4 34.9 42.5 42.5 40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5 39.5

▲ 3.0

Leasing,Rentals

46.9 34.0 27.8 29.1 30.2 31.4 32.7 34.5 34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5 32.8

▲ 0.7

Lodging, Hotels

23.2

7.0

1.5

2.9

4.8

4.4

1.0

Recreation

35.7 17.0

5.6

9.3

11.5 17.5 22.9 22.4 23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.8

1.8

Broadcasting

38.9 29.8 22.9 22.5 26.7 25.6 34.5 33.3 34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3 42.6

6.3

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

42.6 36.0 27.5 26.6 29.9 33.2 34.1 36.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3 37.5

1.2

Advertising34.1 21.3 11.3 10.7 14.3 19.0 18.0 20.4 21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2 24.7

4.5Information

54.2 43.9 33.7 34.0 35.8 37.2 37.9 38.9 40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3 43.6

2.3

Labor Dispatching

42.5 34.1 21.0 20.0 25.3 24.6 25.4 26.7 29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6 33.6

2.0

Special Services

45.8 40.4 31.4 32.2 35.0 36.7 36.1 40.0 40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8 42.9

4.1

Medical,Welfare,Public Health43.2 35.9 26.4 26.1 30.5 29.9 31.0 31.4 33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7 34.7

2.0

Education

40.0 29.7 13.9 18.8 28.0 29.5 31.7 34.0 34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3 34.0

0.7

Other39.8 29.2 21.2 21.8 26.6 28.7 28.4 31.1 31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9 34.2

3.3

45.1 35.3 25.8 26.1 29.4 31.2 31.8 33.9 35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9 36.5

2.6

39.2 29.8 24.4 26.2 27.1 29.3 28.8 31.5 28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5 30.5

1.0

Total

Other

4.3

5.5

5.1

6.0

12.4 27.2 28.8 11.9

3.4

Ratio to theFeb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido

39.0 31.0 28.4 27.5 30.6 32.3 33.4 34.4 36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4 33.9

1.5Tohoku

36.7 30.7 26.0 25.3 28.5 29.7 30.4 32.6 34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8 35.4

1.6

kitakanto

36.9 31.8 25.8 24.5 26.2 27.1 28.0 30.6 33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9 37.2

2.3

minamikanto

41.1 34.1 26.3 25.5 28.4 29.7 30.4 32.3 34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0 35.9

1.9

Hokuriku

35.6 29.7 24.9 25.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.0 31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7 34.6

1.9Tokai

37.3 31.4 23.7 23.4 25.3 27.0 27.7 30.3 32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1 36.1

2.0

Kinki

36.3 30.4 23.9 23.8 25.9 27.8 28.1 29.5 32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1 35.5

2.4

Chugoku

39.0 33.8 27.0 25.7 27.2 29.4 29.7 32.0 34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5 36.2

1.7

Shikoku39.5 36.4 30.8 28.5 30.3 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8 35.4

1.6

Kyushu41.5 35.3 27.5 27.4 29.7 32.5 31.8 34.2 36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3 37.0

1.7

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research February 2021

3Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,702; Valid
responses: 11,073; Response rate: 46.7%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

553
759
829
3,324
592

Kyushu

1,215
1,943
637
366855

Total

11,073

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

73

Finance

113

Construction

1,823

Real Estate

362

Manufacturing（3,049）Wholesale（2,911）

Retail（456）

Food,Beverages

65

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

32

Drugs,Sundries

21

Furniture

15

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

34

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

372

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

122

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

235

Special Merchandise

147

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

101

Various Merchandise

46

Publishing,Printing

176

OthersChemical

427

Transportation,Warehousing

487

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

519

Restaurants

52

General Machinery

497

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

328

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

11

7
19

101

Leasing,Rentals

117

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

77

Lodging, Hotels

34

Others94

Recreation

60

Food,Beverages

393

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

188

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,752）

18

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

183

337

Advertising

102

94

Information

459

284

Labor Dispatching

60

35

Special Services

294
120

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

304

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment922

Education

Others354

Others26
201
47

OthersTotal

3.Size85

Large Firms

1,930

17.4%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,143

82.6%

micro Firms

3,322

30.0%

Total

11,073100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD11,073

TDB Trends Research February 2021

4

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted February 12 – 28 2021

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms
No. of Employee: Below 20
No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor badfairly badbadvery bad

points65432

10number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0

EconomicDI
Totalof (Pointsfor eachcategory× Numberof responsesfor eachcategory) 1× × 100＝N
Numberof valid responses
6∑ i × N × 1 × 100≡6i ≡0Ni

6©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research February 20215