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The FAO Forest Assessment produced in the early 1980s (FAO/UNEP 1981, Lanly 1982)
provides a first-order estimate of deforestation rates world-wide. These data produced
on a country basis can be used as a baseline land-use rate. A 1990 assessment has been
recently published (FAO 1993a), which provides estimates of deforestation rates bycountry for the period 1981-1990. Thus, some estimates of current and historical rates
of deforestation on a country basis can be obtained from these published reports. Moredetailed information, at the sub-national level, can be obtained by contacting the FAO
directly. Deforestation by climatic zone for each tropical country is included in the
Workbook.
It should be noted, however, that there have been controversies and disagreements
regarding FAO estimates of national deforestation rates at times. In some cases where
national experts have developed substantially more detailed approaches for their own
countries, results have been found to be different from the published FAO estimates.
Any internationally provided data should be reviewed carefully by national experts if they
are used as a basis for emissions inventory estimates.
Some countries have well-developed estimates of deforestation, based on very goodmeasurements, which provide more detail than is available from the FAO assessments(e.g., Arbhabhirama et al., 1987; INPE, 1992). Where detailed national studies exist for
the early 1990s they should be the preferred data source for experts preparing national
inventories. FAO data may nonetheless be useful for comparative purposes. The choiceof input data is always ultimately a decision of the national experts.
Lack of consistent time-series data at national level is considered by FAO staff to be themost critical problem in estimating the deforestation rate. Variation in definitions andmeasurement techniques from country to country is another problem in making regionaland global estimates. FAO has initiated a comprehensive programme for capacity-building
in forest resources assessment by mobilising technical and economic co-operation among
member countries and among concerned regional and global agencies as follow-up to
recommendations of UNCED Agenda 21: Programme Area D.

T5.2 Ongoing Data Efforts
The lack of a comprehensive data set on deforestation rates is a critical problem. The
development of such data sets remains one of the priorities for the IPCC process in the
coming years (IPCC, 1992). Methods using high resolution remote sensing in conjunction
with geographic information systems appear most promising.
The International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme's Data Information System (IGBP-DIS) is serving as acentral focal point to collect and disseminate information about the various ongoing
activities and data sets dealing with land use and changes in land cover. The IGBP-DIS is
located in Paris, France (Tel: 33-1-4427-6168, Fax: 33-1-4427-6171).
Experts from around the world have begun to build the scientific, technical, andprocedural underpinnings of such a system. The World Forest Watch Meeting held in
Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil (June 1992) provided a high-level international forum for theassessment of current approaches to satellite-based forest monitoring. This meeting also
served as a basis for forwarding recommendations from the technical and scientificcommunities to the policy makers and government leaders at UNCED.
A variety of international participants were represented at the World Forest Watch
Conference. The conference concluded that significant technical and methodologicaladvancements have been made in recent years, and they are now sufficient for proceedingwith an observation system which could satisfy both scientific and national-level forest
management requirements. A priority action now is to establish a fully functional,

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permanent monitoring system. The system would support national forest management,
global change science, and international policy information needs, such as those of the
IPCC.
The current research and development being carried out in laboratories and research
centres around the world has shown that it is now feasible to acquire repetitive satellite
data sets over very large areas, and that the information derived from such data sets canform the core of a global forest monitoring programme. The International Space
Year/World Forest Watch Conference has recently provided illustrations that spaceobservation technology and the community of users are ready for regional and global
applications.
Progress made on two forest monitoring projects is worth noting in this respect.
1

The National Institute for Space Research (INPE) of the Secretariat of Science andTechnology of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil has made surveys of theentire Legal Amazon (about 5 million square kilometres) using LANDSAT images.
This survey was first conducted in 1978 (with 1977 and 1979 being used to coverareas covered by clouds in the 1978 imagery). The studies were repeated in 1988,
1989, 1990 and 1991. These space-based surveys mapped the extent of grossdeforestation (i.e., without accounting for forest regeneration or the establishmentof plantations) in the portion of the Legal Amazon covered by forest. The
ecosystems ranged from dense tropical forest to thick savannas (cerradao) with a
total surface area between 3.9 and 4 million square kilometres. The 1978 survey
used 232 Land Sat MSS black and white images based on channels 5 and 7 at a scaleof 1:250,000. The more recent studies used 229 LANDSAT TM images annually in acolour composite of channels 3,4 and 5 at a scale of 1:250,000.

2

In 1990 NASA, in conjunction with the United States Environmental Protection
Agency and the US Geological Survey, began a prototype procedure for using large
amounts of high resolution satellite imagery to map the rate of tropicaldeforestation. This activity, the LANDSAT Pathfinder Project, builds on experience
gained during a proof-of-concept exercise as part of NASA's contribution to theInternational Space Year/World Forest Watch Project. It focused initially on theBrazilian Amazon, and has now been expanded as part of NASA's Earth Observing
System activities to cover other regions of the humid tropical forests.
This project has succeeded in demonstrating how to develop wall-to-wall maps offorest conversion and regrowth. The project is now in the process of extending its
initial proof-of-concept to a large-area experiment across Central Africa, Southeast
Asia and the entire Amazon Basin. The project is acquiring several thousand
LANDSAT scenes at three points in time - mid 1970s, mid 1980s, and mid 1990s to compile a comprehensive inventory of deforestation and secondary growth(regrowth of forests on land cleared and subsequently abandoned) to support global
carbon cycle models. Methodology and procedures have been identified. Although
this exercise is being implemented for most of the tropics, it is not an operational
global programme. In principle it will provide an initial large-scale prototype of an
operation programme.
The use of geographic information system technology is crucial to the project, as itprovides the overall framework upon which the raw satellite data can be synthesisedwith other cartographic, numerical and geographical data for scientific research andnational forestry management. As its name implies, this project is exploratory, but it
could readily be expanded to form the nucleus of a global scale operational
programme.

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These two projects demonstrate the feasibility of developing a global tropical forest
information system to support an operational tropical forest monitoring programme.
High resolution satellite data from LANDSAT or Spot satellites are being used to provide
digital maps of deforestation.
High resolution data from the LANDSAT series of earth observation satellites can be
employed to make regular measurements of deforestation. Large amounts of these data
exist in national and foreign archives, dating back approximately 20 years. This satellite
data system has been perfected over years of development (5 satellites have beenlaunched) and it is expected to be an operational system into the next century(LANDSAT 7 and 8 are being designed33). This system is complemented by the French
SPOT satellites. Thus, a continuous and consistent source of data is available upon whicha high resolution, fine-scale (1:250,000 scale mapping) information system could be
developed.
An operational forest monitoring using high resolution data such as that provided by
LANDSAT and SPOT could provide wall-to-wall mapping for the entire humid tropicalzone. The approach would be as follows:•

An initial mapping effort would define where and how much deforestation exists inthe tropical forests (a baseline assessment). The stratification of forest types andcritical regions could be enhanced by the use of coarse resolution information from
AVHRR.

•

Acquisition of LANDSAT and/or SPOT imagery can be co-ordinated regularly every
3-5 years to obtain cloud-free coverage systematically throughout the tropics. The
best way to achieve this is to rely heavily on the foreign ground stations. For
example, from the LANDSAT routine and complete coverage for the Amazon Basinand Southeast Asia is possible from several foreign ground receiving stations in theseregions. As a rule these stations regularly collect data from every orbital pass within
the line-of-sight radius of their antenna. For regions, such as central Africa where
no ground station exits, programmed acquisitions from the satellite are possible.

•

The imagery is analysed for deforestation using a methodology analogous to thatdeveloped by the LANDSAT Pathfinder Project, where a simple delineation of theboundary between intact forest and cleared areas is recorded into a geographic
information system. Areas of secondary growth would also be delineated.
Subsequent years are compared to the baseline and the increment of new
deforestation and secondary growth is recorded. The resulting data set provides a
1:250,000 to 1:500,000 scale map of deforestation at a regular repeat interval, andfrom this a rate of deforestation is derived.

•

These geographically-referenced measurements can directly support theimplementation of the IPCC national inventory methodology, which requires a timeseries of historical forest clearing data, and would require updating at periodic
intervals. The proposed accurate and precise deforestation data set would be an
important asset to national experts working to implement the IPCC methodology
for national emissions and removals from land-use change.

•

An accuracy assessment effort will need to be put into place to define and track themeasurement variance and error (e.g., ground truthing) This component will need todetermine accuracy with respect to: (a) variance due to positional accuracy (i.e., themapping precision) and (b) the variance associated with image interpretation.

33 Landsat 6 crashed, soon after it was launched.

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An effort focused on establishing in-country co-operation will be necessary. Suchco-operation fulfils several ancillary but vital objectives: (a) it builds a process ofnational acceptance of the methods and results through active involvement, (b) it
provides a mechanism for technology transfer and training for eventual
implementation of national inventories based on remote sensing, (c) it facilitateslogistical co-ordination of the field component, (d) it provides direct co-operation at
various foreign ground stations, and (e) it enables co-operation with national andregional experts in the interpretation of imagery.

T5.3 Summary
Tropical deforestation and carbon emissions are important components of both scienceand policy. Yet, in spite of the growing need for precise estimates of deforestation to
support both international policy and basic research, an operational programme of
measurement, monitoring and mapping has yet to be developed. Comprehensive andsystematic information on the extent of forest and forest loss is not available on a global
basis. IPCC (1990), for example, considers the rate of tropical deforestation to be one of
the key unknowns in global climate change assessment. Any lasting and effective
implementation of a global system of national emission inventories to support the IPCC
and other international processes will require a new, concerted effort to measure andmap tropical deforestation, and develop the data base necessary for other importantcomponents of the calculations. These measurements of deforestation from highresolution satellite remote sensing can also support the UN/FAO Forest Assessment by
providing quantitative and spatially comprehensive measures of changes in forest coverfor the tropics.
This Technical Appendix summarises the most comprehensive current data sources fortropical deforestation information, and discusses ongoing efforts to improve on this data
via analysis of remote sensing images. Ideally, each country would like to have data on
their land-use changes and associated trace gas emissions and uptake over the past 40 to
50 years so that their estimates of current annual net emissions would include delayedand continuous emissions and uptake due to activities that occurred in prior years. Since
this is not the case for many countries, the methodology described has made simplifying
assumptions in order to treat the effects of past land-use activities on current emissions.
This appendix provides some perspective on the available international sources for
dealing with one key data gap – data on rates of forest clearing over time.
In future editions of the Guidelines, it may be possible to include more information on data
available to assist national experts as a result of some of the ongoing efforts described inthis version. It may also be possible and desirable to provide similar discussion of a rangeof other international data collection efforts which may assist national experts in refining
other key data driven uncertainties in the national estimates of emissions and removals
from land-use change and forestry.
In the meantime, it is recommended that countries continue efforts to collect historical
records of land-use change and develop systems of tracking land use through time so thatas the methodology is further refined, the land-use change time series needed to accountbetter for emissions and uptake of CO2 and other trace gases are available.

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