Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific
Research and Prediction Initiative(MAHASRI)

Ver. 4.1

Science Plan Proposalby
The International Drafting Committee of the Post GAME Planning
Working Group

October 6, 2006

Table of Contents
1. Introduction

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2. Background2.1. International research framework
2.2. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

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3. Scientific goals and strategy

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4. Key scientific issues of Asian monsoon
4.1. General description of Asian monsoon problems
4.1.1. Summer monsoon
4.1.2. Winter monsoon
4.2. Monsoon variability in various temporal and spatial scales
4.2.1. Diurnal cycle
4.2.2. Synoptic-scale variability
4.2.3. Intraseasonal variability
4.2.4. Interannual variability
4.3. Important processes relevant to monsoon variability
4.3.1. Land surface processes
4.3.2. Sea surface processes
4.3.3. Impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation
4.3.4. Cloud and precipitation processes
4.4. Regional sub-programs
4.4.1. Tropics
4.4.1.1. Maritime Continent
4.4.1.2. Indochina
4.4.1.3. South Asia
4.4.2. Tibet and Himalayas
4.4.2.1. Tibetan Plateau
4.4.2.2. The Himalayas
4.4.3. East Asia
4.4.4. Northeast Asia

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5. Observations and modeling5.1. Observations
5.1.1. Remote sensing
5.1.2. Isotopes
5.2. Modeling5.2.1. GCMs
5.2.1.1. Model development
5.2.1.2. Simulation of the Asian monsoon system
5.2.1.3. Prediction of the Asian monsoon

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5.2.2. RCMs & CRMs
5.2.3. Hydrological modeling26
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6. Applications
6.1. Weather/climate prediction – for contribution to the social welfare
6.2. Floods/droughts and water resources
6.2.1. Flood/drought prediction and warning system
6.2.2. Water resources and management
6.3. Application to the rice production in Southeast Asia

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7. Data management33

8. Links with international programs/projects
8.1. GEWEX
8.2. CLIVAR
8.3. CEOP
8.4. TMRP
8.5. THORPEX
8.6. CliC
8.7. SPARC
8.8. PUB
8.9. MAIRS/ESSP
8.10. GWSP

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9. Time schedule

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References

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Appendix -1

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Appendix -2

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1. Introduction
The international research program on the water and energy cycle in the Asian monsoon,
named GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment: http://www.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp/game/) successfully finished in March 2005. Through the GAME and other monsoon projects,
our understanding of the Asian monsoon has been substantially progressed. Some of thescientific results of GAME were published in the special issue of the Journal of the
Meteorological Society of Japan (Vol. 79B, 2001, 22 papers) and the Hydrological Processes(In press, 9 papers). As of May 2006, 269 scientific papers were published in the peer reviewed
international journals. In particular, roles of the various land surfaces over the Asian Continent
on the seasonal and interannual changes of monsoon, precipitation processes closely relatedwith land surface conditions were revealed through observational and modeling studies. The
data obtained in the GAME activities were archived and published in 13 CD-ROMs and will be
useful for further studies. Such publication and data information has been listed and updated in
the GAME publication database (http://www.suiri.tsukuba.ac.jp/~game/index.htm). However,researches from these projects also reveal, not only long-range forecast, but also short-range
forecast of monsoon rainfall are still not satisfactory. Unexpected floods and/or droughts occur
frequently in the Asian monsoon region. In addition, the influence of ongoing global warmingand human-induced atmospheric pollution and/or land cover/use changes on monsoon climate
has not yet been fully understood. The scientific understanding, research strength, scientificcollaboration, and organization from the GAME project have paved the way for investigationin the next stage of the program to improve the prediction of the Asian monsoon and its
hydrological cycle.
To improve the Asian monsoon prediction, many challenging issues have to be solved. In
particular, better resolution of diurnal cycles and their multi-scale interactions withintraseasonal variability are crucial for improving prediction of convection and precipitation.
Seamless understanding of land-ocean-atmosphere interaction, boundary layer processes andcloud/precipitation processes is essential for improving models, including components likecumulus parameterizations. Understanding of the hierarchical structure of meso-scale systems
embedded in large-scale fields and the mutual interaction between the low level jet/moist
convection and large-scale fields over complex terrain and warm water pools will be
particularly important for prediction of severe rainfall systems in East and Southeast Asia. The
significant role of vegetation and aerosols on atmospheric heating, cloud/precipitation systems,
and monsoon circulations in Asia has recently been pointed out, which was only partly noted in
GAME. In addition, GAME targeted mainly land-atmospheric interactions,land-ocean-atmospheric interactions have not yet been fully understood. As for the regionalfoci, GAME-Tropics targeted mainly monsoon processes in the Indochina region. Monsoon
processes of the entire tropical Asia including South Asia and the Indonesian maritime
continent need to be studied. In a similar manner, more comprehensive studies on the
East-Asian monsoon system may also be necessary. Furthermore, the processes involved in the
Asian winter monsoon should also be targeted since they also interact with the water cycle inthe maritime continent.
In the final GAME International Conference in December 2004, the need for further researchon the Asian monsoon was approved and its initiation was strongly recommended. The CEOP
(Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period) Phase-2 implementation/science is now being
proposed based on the unique capabilities of the coordinated observation, data archiving, and1data integration developed through the CEOP Phase-1. Very recently, the global climate
research community has also agreed to a strong coordinated research framework, particularlyon the Asian/Australian monsoon system both in observations and modeling/prediction (e.g., at
the 1st Pan-WCRP Monsoon System Workshop held in June, 2005). Considering its huge andserious influence on human activity, WCRP has endorsed hydro-climate study of monsoon
systems as a key component of WCRP Strategic Plan.
On the other hand, both in the Johannesburg Summit and the UN Millennium Developing
Goals (http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/), solutions for poverty and food problems, as well
as development of a global partnership for sustainable development, are identified as important
topics. Solutions for water problems are the key for both issues, and accumulation of scientificunderstandings is highly anticipated to attain their objectives. The ten-year Implementation
Plan for the GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems:
http://earthobservations.org) has been started from 2005 based on the agreement of the Third
Earth Observation Summit, and new funding opportunities have emerged in Japan as well as insome other Asian countries.
However, a research strategy for the Asian monsoon, that will be a successor of the GAME
project, has not been established yet. It will be very important, in conjunction with GEOSS
activities, to develop studies on the Asian monsoon by strengthening and promoting ourpartnership with Asian countries that have been cultivated through the GAME project.
Herein, we would like to propose a new international program in Asia, named MAHASRI(Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative), focusing on
establishing scientific basis for predicting hydro-climate monsoon system with intraseasonal toseasonal time-scale, including developing warning systems for droughts and flood conditionsof regional or river-basin scales. This program should undertake an essential role in WCRP
activity in Asia, as one of the CSEs (Continental Scale Experiments in GEWEX), in
cooperation particularly with CEOP Phase-II, and will contribute to other related international
initiatives (e.g., CLIVAR, THORPEX, GWSP, IHP-PUB etc.).
2. Background2.1. International research framework
WCRP is now planning a new strategic plan for the coordinated observation and predictionof the earth system, which aims to facilitate analysis and prediction of earth system variability
and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit
and value to society. Within this framework, it is very important that efficient coordination andcollaboration occurs between the WCRP activities.
One of the important and urgent targets for the WCRP Strategic Plan is the prediction of
monsoon systems. Particularly, prediction of the Asian monsoon system is crucial, because
over half the world’s population lives within the influence of the Asian monsoon area.
Predicting Asian monsoon characteristics with regional to local scales, including their onsets,
breaks, durations and variability remains a challenging scientific problem because of thecomplexities of the interaction involved.
As part of GEWEX, GAME was conducted for about 10 years from 1996 through 2005, andmany scientific results have been obtained, particularly on hydro-meteorological processes andland-atmosphere interactions over diverse land areas in the Asian monsoon regions (sometimes
called monsoon Asia) (e.g., Yasunari, 2001). On the other hand, CLIVAR has lead the2Asian/Australian monsoon panel, leading studies and coordination mainly in theatmosphere-ocean interaction processes of the monsoon system in the Indian Ocean and thewestern Pacific warm pool region.
These activities under WCRP have pointed out and partly revealed some importantcharacteristic processes (e.g., diurnal cycle of convection and precipitation, coupled process ofland (ocean) surface, PBL and cloud/precipitation systems, role of heating processes over the
Tibetan plateau and warm oceans [Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and the western Pacific],vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, etc.). However, further collaborated studies will really beneeded for prediction of monsoons. Particularly, dynamics of seasonal march and intraseasonalvariability, which are essential for predicting the Asian monsoon systems, remain unresolved
and challenging. The first Pan-WCRP monsoon workshop held in June of 2005, focusing on
key issues of monsoon predictions, also strongly recommended collaborated research on theseissues.
A fully-coordinated framework on the Asian monsoon prediction, including its application
to water resources and disaster prevention issues, are urgently required and should follow up
and coordinate with the GAME activities and those of the CLIVAR Asian/Australian monsoon
panel. This research framework may also need to collaborate with THORPEX in Asia, which
focuses on prediction of weather regimes up to two weeks (i.e., shorter intraseasonal timescales). In addition, this new framework needs to include capacity building and training on
climate research and prediction in the Asian monsoon region. This will facilitate cooperationand collaboration between the research community and operational agencies related tometeorology, hydrology, oceanography, ecology and other related sciences among countries inmonsoon Asia. In this respect, this new framework is also expected to function as a substantial
WCRP-side program or project, which can coordinate with START and ESSP activities inmonsoon Asia.
2.2. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
Understanding the Earth system -its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land,geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards- is
crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering, protecting
the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development.
Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding.
Interested countries and organizations have collaborated to develop a 10 year implementation
plan for a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) to build on and add value toexisting Earth observation systems by coordinating their efforts, addressing critical gaps,
supporting their interoperability, sharing information, reaching a common understanding ofuser requirements and improving delivery of information to users.
The vision for GEOSS is to realize a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit ofhumankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations andinformation. The purpose of GEOSS is to achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustained
observations of the Earth system, in order to improve monitoring of the state of the Earth,increase understanding of Earth processes, and enhance prediction of the behavior of the Earthsystem. GEOSS will meet the need for timely, quality, long-term global information as a basis
for sound decision making, and will enhance delivery of benefits to society in the areas ofdisasters, health, energy, climate, water, weather, ecosystems, agriculture and desertification,

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and biodiversity.
There are three meanings in the phrase “a system of systems”. The first one is an integrated
observation system by combining different types of observations, in-situ, airborne, and satellite.
The second is an integration system that introduces data into modeling systems using
techniques like data assimilation, data mining, and visualization. The third one is a system
which improves data and information interoperability among different socio-economic benefit
areas to contribute to socio-economic fields of study.
The GEOSS Implementation Plan endorsed at the 3rd Earth Observation Summit held in
February 2005 at Brussels identified three key research and development areas as follows:• Improved and new instrumentation and system design for in situ, airborne,and space-based observation on a long-term basis;•

Life-cycle data management, data integration and information fusion, data
mining, network enhancement, and design optimization studies; and,•Development of models, data assimilation modules, and other algorithms thatare able to produce global and regional products more effectively.

3. Scientific goals and strategy
The scientific objective of MAHASIRI is:"To develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system, particularly with the time scale up to aseason, through the better scientific understanding of Asian monsoon variability".
In order to achieve this goal, the activities should focus on:• Determine the predictability and key components of Asian monsoon variability with atime scale up to a season for the development of a hydro-meteorological prediction
system.
• Develop a real-time monitoring capability for hydro-meteorological observations.
• Develop an integrated hydro-meteorological database including data rescue.
• Examine and improve the hydro-meteorological models in some specific river basins.
The key scientific issues to be solved through this program are:• Atmosphere-ocean-land interactions in the Asian monsoon system• Effect of various-scale orography on monsoon circulation and rainfall• Temporal interactions among diurnal, synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal variabilityof Asian monsoon• Spatial interactions among hydro-meteorological phenomena of local, regional andcontinental scales• Transferability of hydrological models and parameters for prediction of ungauged orsparsely observed basins
Regarding the international cooperation strategies, the following items are to be considered:• Facilitate and/or improve hydro-meteorological observations in Asian monsoon
countries in conjunction with GEOSS• Cooperate with CEOP-II using observational data and hydro-meteorological studies in
the Asian monsoon region• Contribute IPY for the better observational data coverage in the Asian monsoon
region4• Capacity building for observation, analysis, data-integration and modeling• Data exchange to establish an integrated databaseIn the GAME project, we had four regional components, Siberia, Huai-he River, Tibet andTropics. In the MAHASRI, regional components will be re-structured as follows:• Tropics (including India and the maritime continent)• Tibet/Himalaya• East Asia
• Northeast Asia
The map of these regions is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1 Four study regions in the MAHASRI
4. Key scientific issues of Asian monsoon
4.1. General description of Asian monsoon problems
4.1.1. Summer monsoon
It is widely accepted that the development of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is inducedby large-scale thermal gradients between the Asiatic landmass and neighboring oceans. Many
researchers have indicated that the Tibetan Plateau is an important player in the heatingprocesses as an elevated heat source in the middle troposphere (Nitta 1983; Yanai et al. 1992).
In addition, numerical simulations enable us to reproduce near-real monsoon circulations by
putting the South Asian tropical heat sources in a general circulation model (Ose 1998). Thisimplies that the establishment and maintenance of the ASM is affected by the heat-induced
response to tropical heating. However, the evaluation of these widely distributed heat sources
is not clear and there are several discrepancies among the datasets, which should be integrated
in future studies. The climatological features of seasonal evolution of Asian summer monsoon

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have been well documented with the help of satellite observations and meteorological objective
analysis (e.g., Matsumoto, 1992; Wang and LinHo, 2002). It undergoes some drastic changes
related both with seasonal and intraseasonal variations (Kawamura and Murakami, 1998). To
understand the physical processes involved in the interannual variability of the monsoon, thespatio-temporal structure of the climatological features of the seasonal evolution processes inregards to the “thermal” and “heat” view need to be clarified.
Recent studies revealed a precursor signal in the fluctuation of the ASM in the form of atropical/subtropical linkage during pre-monsoon season. For instance, Ju and Slingo (1995)
showed that, once the convection over the maritime continent becomes active in late winter in
conjunction with La Niña, the enhanced convection extends further westward to the north of
the tropical Indian Ocean. Barlow et al. (2002) also noticed that formation of the upper-level
anticyclone is dynamically induced by these anomalous tropical heat sources in the Indian
Ocean. Thus, the land surface condition in the pre-monsoon season is expected to be drier thannormal due to the suppression of the synoptic disturbance related to the anomalous subsidence
motion (Kawamura 1998). These, in turn, favor an increase in the air temperature over the
Asian continent and subsequent strong ASM.
The Asian summer monsoon is composed by South or Southeast Asian monsoon, Western
North Pacific monsoon, and East Asian monsoon (Murakami and Matsumoto, 1994; Wang and
LinHo, 2002). All these systems experience clear alternation of wind directions and wet/dry
seasons. It has been demonstrated by numerous studies (e.g. Chen et al. 2004) that the East
Asian monsoon life cycle is established by the modulation of the annual variation modethrough intraseasonal (12-24 day and 30-60 day) monsoon modes. Modulations of
intraseasonal monsoon modes on late spring/early summer rainstorms and typhoons in East
Asia have not been well explored.
The interannual variation of the East Asian summer circulation was well depicted by Nitta(1987) with the Japan-Pacific oscillation pattern which was later confirmed by numerous
studies of interannual variations in the typhoon activity in the western North Pacific (e.g.
Camargo and Sobel 2005; Chen et al. 2006), rainfall variation in East China (e.g. Samel et al.
The possible effect of this interannual variation mode on the monsoon life cycle, diurnal
variation mode, late spring/early summer rainstorms, and intraseasonal monsoon modes are
critical issues of the East Asian climate system.
Keeping these in mind, further studies should be done on the precise evaluation of the heatsources in the sub-regions embedded in the Asian continent and adjacent oceans. Also neededis an investigation of the ocean-atmosphere-land interaction by means of validation of multiple
resources among the satellite-derived data, in-situ observation and numerical experiments.
These studies will contribute to the better prediction of the monsoon onset timing.
4.1.2. Winter monsoon
Although summer monsoon rainfall composes a substantial portion of annual rainfall in mostparts of the Asian monsoon region, in some regions, for example, the Japan Sea coastal regionof Japan, east coastal region of the Philippines, Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula, winterprecipitation is also important. In addition, over the maritime continent, namely over theIndonesian Archipelago, boreal winter is the primary rainy season. In some occasions, forexample, November 1999, in central Vietnam, severe floods occurred under the influence of
the Asian winter monsoon.

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Another important feature of the boreal winter season is cold air outbreaks from the Siberian– Mongolian high which pushes southwards into southern China and the South China Sea atintervals of several days to about two weeks affects the tropics, particularly the maritime
continent of Malaysia – Indonesia on very short time scales. The Japan Sea in winter is one of
the important places in the world, where much of the heat and moisture fluxes are supplied
from ocean to atmosphere. For long-range forecast of cold air outbreaks over the Japan Sea
from several weeks to several months in advance, a correct prediction of large-scale fields suchas the Arctic Oscillation is necessary.
As the cold surge reaches the South China coast, northerly winds start strengthening almost
simultaneously several hundred kilometers to the south. Then, a belt of strong northeasterly
winds forms within 24 hours off the South China and Vietnam coasts. This leads to astrengthening of a quasi-stationary cyclonic disturbance embedded in the near-equatorial
trough that is oriented almost zonally around latitude 5oN in the beginning of the season andgradually tilts to an eastnortheast-westsouthwest direction just north of the Borneo coast as theseason progresses. During the early half of the season, these disturbances normally move
westwards bringing heavy rain to the eastern parts of the Malay Peninsula. At times, these
cyclonic disturbances, intensified by cold surges, will cause widespread heavy rainfall lastingfor several days causing floods. During the later half of the season, this disturbance is referred
to as the Borneo vortex (Chang et al., 2005). The Borneo vortex exhibits strong diurnal
variability and is one of the main causes of heavy rain over the coastal regions of Sarawak.
Some of these disturbances originate in the western pacific and propagate into the South China
Sea as easterly waves (Cheang, 1977). During northern winter, the interaction between thenortheast monsoon winds and the terrain makes the Borneo vortex the most well definedsynoptic system with a high frequency transient mode in the equatorial belt of the
Asian-Australian monsoon region (Chang, 2004). Another factor for strong convection over thesouthern South China Sea is the warmer SST. In comparison, in the northern and central South
China Sea, the northeast winds are stronger but deep convection is much weaker (Johnson andHousze 1987) because the SST there is much lower. This pool of warm water and the SST
gradient may be the trigger for the Borneo vortex and could also be the cause of the strong
diurnal cycle in the convection. It has also been noted by Subramaniam et al (2005), that during
El Nino periods, the SST over the southern South China Sea is warmer than usual with aweaker gradient in the temperature field and the opposite is observed during La Nina events.
The amplitude of the eastward moving MJO normally peaks during the boreal winter overthe maritime continent of South East Asia (Yanai et al., 2000). This oscillation on theintraseasonal time scales produces alternating periods of enhanced and reduced large-scaleconvection as it passes the equatorial South China Sea region. Despite the cold surges, the
MJO and the synoptic disturbances differ greatly in their origin and time scales but they may
interact and influence the variability of the deep convection and the strengthening of exiting
cyclonic disturbances over the South China Sea and the maritime continent. Does theintraseasonal mode have any impact on the East Asian winter monsoon? Using correlation
coefficient patterns, Kiladis and Weickmann (1992) and Hsu et al. (1990) were able to isolate
intraseasonal signal of the East Asian winter circulation. How this intraseasonal mode affects
the East Asian winter monsoon through its modulation on synoptic disturbances and thehydrological cycle has not been well explored. To examine the impact of cold surges on the
East Asian winter weather system, Campo et al. (1999) presented the spatial structure of the712-24 day mode related to cold surges. The signal of this intraseasonal mode which stands out
clearly in the East Asian surface pressure is well reflected by the coupling between theeastward propagation of midlatitude anticyclone/cyclone and cold surge activity (Chen et al.
2002). How this intraseasonal mode affects the East Asian winter monsoon rainfall is beyond
our current understanding. Without proper research effort to understand the impact of
intraseasonal modes on the winter monsoon rainfall in East Asia, it is unlikely to perform theseasonal prediction of the East Asian short-term climate.
Various studies have tried to advance the understanding of cold surges through numericalsimulations. For example, Lim and Chang (1981) examined the dynamics of mid-latitude
tropical interactions using the concept of vertical modes and suggested that the pressure surge
could represent a transient, gravity wave like motion due to a pressure-wind imbalance, whichthen allows a fast propagation of energy from the mid-latitudes to the tropics. However, there
still remains a number of challenging questions related to the boreal winter cold surges thatneed to be addressed;(1) How does intense mid-latitude anticyclonic development give rise to strong northeasterly
wind over the South China Sea that often spreads southward rapidly?
(2) How does cold surge interact with tropical convective system? What is the role of air-sea
interaction, cold surge, and the cyclonic disturbances and the Borneo vortex in the southern
South China Sea?
(3) How do the MJO and cold surges interact?
(4) How are mid-latitude-tropical and inter-hemispheric interactions dynamically linked?
(5) What is the interannual variability of cold surges and how is it linked to El Nino Southern
Oscillation?
The last winter monsoon experiment (WMONEX) over the South China Sea region was
conducted about 26 years ago during the boreal winter of 1978/79. Many important findings
were obtained as summarized in Boyle and Chen (1987), Lau and Chang (1987), McBride(1987) and Lim and Chang (1987). Since then, many additional findings have been also
accumulated for the Asian winter monsoon as recently summarized in Chang (2004), Chang(2005), and Hendon (2005). However, no systematic international observation projects havebeen conducted on the Asian winter monsoon after WMONEX. It is timely that intensive
studies to clarify the above crucial issues be carried out as one of the objectives of the
MAHASRI. An IOP during the occurrence of cold surges to coincide with the IPY in 2008
would provide valuable data to further our understanding of the issues raised here.
4.2. Monsoon variability in various temporal and spatial scales
4.2.1. Diurnal cycle
Diurnal cycles of precipitation and clouds are now recognized as key factors directly
relevant to the uncertainty of climate projection by GCMs. It is well known that the one day is
the most prominent period for disturbances in the atmosphere over land in the tropics and landin midlatitudes in warm seasons. Until recently, however, diurnal cycles have not received
sufficient attention by climate researchers, possibly because the time scale is different from thatof climate change and it was hard to imagine such a short time scale would affect climate.
Recent researchers in the field of climate point out that the representation of the diurnal
variation of precipitation over land by large-scale climate models with rather coarse resolution
is poor (e.g., Yang and Slingo 2001, Dai and Trenberth 2004). The predicted daily precipitation

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maximum often occurs several hours earlier than the observations and in some areas evenopposite in phase (i.e., the model predicts the daily maximum in the early afternoon, but in
observations it occurs during the night or early morning). Because the diurnal variation of
precipitation accompanies the diurnal variation of cloudiness and because the variation ofcloudiness strongly affects the radiation budget of the Earth system, monsoon researches
agreed that one of the urgent problems to be solved is the proper representation of the diurnal
variation in GCMs (e.g. AAMP-7 Draft Actions/statements, 2005).
Considering that the Asian monsoon region is one of the biggest components of theatmospheric circulation system, the resolution of the detailed characteristics of diurnal
variation in this region is crucial for improving climate projection by GCMs. Because some
precipitation systems governing the diurnal variation are propagating mesoscale systems (e.g.,
Satomura 2000, Okumura et al., 2003, Mapes et al., 2003, Kataoka and Satomura 2005), weshould collect and analyze the precipitation data which covers areas of regional scales (larger
than (～(102) – ～(103) km)2 area) with fine temporal (at least 8 times per day) and spatial (～(10) km) resolution. One of the promising candidates for such regional precipitation data
would be the data from radar networks already constructed in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam,
Bangladesh and other tropical countries. Although some of these networks do not workroutinely, by promoting proper functioning of the network, at least in short IOPs, and bycollecting past radar data, we would obtain basic data sets to study the diurnal variation in aregional scale. At the same time, in order to calibrate the precipitation estimation by radar,shorter time-scale rainfall observations by automatic rain gauges are needed and it will also
serve as an important capacity building. Other observations of cloud and atmosphericparameters will also be necessary for full understanding of diurnal precipitation processes. It isalso inevitable that cloud-system-resolving regional scale model (CSRM) studies be conductedin parallel with the regional data analysis. Based on observation and modeling, how diurnal
variations are coupled with synoptic and/or intraseasonal variations needs to be solved.
Because of the difference in heat capacity between land and ocean in both longitudinal andlatitudinal directions and between low and high latitudes, the atmospheric response to thewestward propagation of sun is a daily clockwise rotation of rainfall over Asia, in addition to
the westward global propagation (Chen 2005). How is this diurnal mode modulated by the East
Asian monsoon life cycle? It requires special care to handle the diurnal variation mode in a
climate model.
4.2.2. Synoptic-scale variability
The Asian summer monsoon is strongly modulated by disturbances on various time-scales.
In the South Asian summer monsoon, monsoon depressions and lows in the Bay of Bengal are
the major contributors to the monsoon rains in northeastern India. It has been noted (Kumar
and Dash, 2001) that the number of lows (depressions) occurrences has steadily increased(decreased) over the last two decades keeping the sum of lows and depressions approximately
unchanged. Understanding of these changes and the associated effects on water resources andflood/drought occurrences in the Indian Sub-continent should be investigated in the future.
Tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific strongly influence the rainfall situations in
Indochina. However, studies have not been conducted on how much these disturbances
contribute to rainfall in specific regions of Indochina. Also unrevealed is the relationship9between monsoon activities and tropical cyclone development and frequency. These topics
need to be studied.
In the East Asian summer monsoon, synoptic disturbances along the Baiu/Meiyu front
strongly modulate the state of the monsoon (e.g. Chen, 2004; Ninomiya, 2004). Synoptic-scale
mid-latitude disturbances also affect the occurrences of pre-monsoon rainfalls in Indochina(Kiguchi and Matsumoto, 2005) and timing of the South China Sea monsoon onset (Chang andChen, 1995; Ding and Liu, 2001). How these triggering events relate with seasonal time-scale
heating over the continent and/or the Tibetan Plateau still need more study. The long-term
variability of synoptic disturbances in East Asian Meiyu/Baiu frontal zones also needs
investigation.
Synoptic-scale disturbances are also important in the Asian winter monsoon, in particular,
coupled with East Asian cold surges as mentioned in 4.1.2. Some midlatitude cyclone systems
in East Asia are developed from the cyclogenesis/frontogenesis between Taiwan and Okinawaby the easterly flow of eastward propagating anticyclones across a shallow surface troughextending from Philippines, across Taiwan and Okinawa, to southern Japan. Because of thelack of understanding of this cyclogenesis/frontogenesis mechanism, winter rainfall in East
Asia is often difficult to simulate by climate models. Numerous studies (Lau and Chang 1987)
were made during and after the Winter Monsoon Experiment in 1978/79 to explore thetropical-midlatitude interaction through cold surge activity. How cold surges affect thehydrological cycle of tropical Southeast Asia through cold-surge vortices over this region isstill not well comprehended. Some serious pursuit of seasonal/interannual prediction of thewinter East Asian monsoon is needed to understand these winter weather systems.
4.2.3. Intraseasonal variability
It has been recognized that intraseasonal variability with a time-scale of 7-90 days, including
phenomena like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Quasi Bi-weekly Oscillations, playa significant role in the seasonal evolution of the Asian monsoon system. A number of
researchers have tried to clarify a dominant mechanism for the abrupt monsoon onset (e.g.,
Yano and McBride 1998; Xie and Saiki 1999; Kawamura et al. 2002). The role of MJO
disturbances in triggering the onset may be crucial in those proposed hypotheses. It is also
probable that the MJO and other intraseasonal disturbances largely affect the active and breakcycles of the Asian summer monsoon.
If the intraseasonal variability is quite independent of the interannual variability(Krishnamurti and Shukla 2000), the quantitative estimation of relative importance of the twovariability types is very meaningful in understanding the potential predictability of seasonalmonsoon precipitation. If chaotic intraseasonal disturbances induce the interannual component,
however, its potential predictability is supposed to be very low (Goswami and Mohan 2001).
Unfortunately, it is still uncertain which hypothesis is valid. Likewise, questions of how the
intraseasonal variations modify the activity of the monsoon depression and the diurnal
variation of precipitation have still not been answered satisfactorily. Another important issue is
how the modification of the air-sea interaction impacts the MJO and other intraseasonal
disturbances. While the MJO disturbances dynamically influence the surface layer of thetropical Indian Ocean, the ocean, in turn, plays a vital role in the growth of the disturbances.
Intensive studies to clarify these crucial issues should be performed as one of the main
objectives of the MAHASRI project. In particular, the following topics should be examined:10(1) The role of the intraseasonal variability in the abrupt onset, and the active and break cyclesof the monsoon system(2) The role of the intraseasonal variability in the activity of the monsoon depression(3) The modification of the intraseasonal variability on the diurnal cycles of precipitation(4) The modification of the ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere interactions on theintraseasonal variability
4.2.4. Interannual variability
It has long been known that the atmospheric circulation associated with the summer
monsoon is governed by a combination of land-ocean thermal contrast and large-scaleconvective heating. Both the land-surface hydrologic conditions of the Asian continent andoceanic conditions in its surrounding oceans influence monsoon activities on various timescales. The importance of the land-atmosphere interaction has been confirmed by many
findings derived from GAME. However, the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropicalIndian and Pacific Ocean is also one of the primary factors in controlling the variability of themonsoon system. Although these two types of interactions have been examined separately
based on observational and modeling studies, we need to further investigate how these twointeractions are possibly associated with each other to properly understand the mechanisms ofthe monsoon variability and explore its potential predictability. For instance, the ENSO forcing
due to the ocean-atmosphere interaction changes land-surface hydrologic conditions of thecontinent during the pre-monsoon season (e.g., Barlow et al. 2002; Kawamura et al. 2004),
which may consequently affect monsoonal rainfall during the following monsoon season. A
question of how the land-atmosphere-ocean interaction greatly contributes to the interannual
monsoon system variability has still not been answered satisfactorily.
GAME brought about the establishment and development of observational sites in land areas,
whereas, within the CLIVAR projects, the monitoring of the oceanic conditions in the tropicalIndian Ocean and western Pacific has been enhanced recently. Under such circumstances,intensive studies to clarify the above crucial issue should be performed as one of the main
objectives of the MAHASRI project.
In particular, the following topics should be examined:(1) The mechanism of the monsoon onset with special emphasis on the land-atmosphere-oceaninteraction(2) The mechanism of interannual variations of active and break cycles of the monsoon system(3) The response of the Asian summer monsoon to ENSO-related forcing through land-surfacehydrologic processes(4) The long-term changes of the monsoon system associated with climate shifts in the tropics
and global warming
4.3. Important processes relevant to monsoon variability
4.3.1. Land surface processes
In the GAME project, surface energy and water balance was observed in many kinds oflandcover conditions in different climate regions. Since most of these flux measurement sites
were located in remote places and GAME was a first attempt to obtain such kinds ofinformation continuously in that area, the flux measurement itself brought us basic ideas about
surface energy and water balance (Ohta et al. 2001, Tanaka et al. 2003, Toda et al. 2000). At

11

the same time, it resulted in many new findings. For example, the latent heat flux in evergreen
forests in the north part of Thailand has its maximum at the end of the dry season (Tanaka et al.
2003). This fact is different from existing studies or model estimates.
Direct measurements of turbulent fluxes of sensible heat and water vapor have alreadybecome a standard monitoring system. Although the analysis methods, like the eddy
correlation method, still need some improvement, current systems are sophisticated enough,and there is no strong need for further development. Continuous monitoring during the GAME
and CEOP period has revealed fundamental characteristics in the seasonal variation of energy,
water, and carbon cycles. In addition, the range of inter-annual variations has become apparent
to be about the same as or even larger than that of seasonal cycles. Long term monitoring isnecessary not only to detect the effects of inter-annual variability such as El-Nino/La Nina, butalso to clarify how meteorological anomalies in some specific years affect the response of thesurface (e.g. phenology, fluxes) for that year. However, the effect can also be observed inforest ecosystems which last several years. Considering the target prediction time scale of thisproject is up to a season, the prediction of vegetation dynamics might be an important issue
because the vegetation phenology (seasonal evolution of vegetation) is highly dependent on
meteorological conditions (temperature, radiation etc.) (Suzuki and Masuda 2004, Miyazaki etal 2004), and, in turn, vegetation status can have significant feedbacks to the atmosphere.
Vast amounts of data have been obtained from these sites, and most of them have alreadybeen archived in the GAME and CEOP databases (http://erc3.suiri.tsukuba.ac.jp/~game/
cdroms/CD-ROM.html). In the new project, comprehensive use of these already established(and ever-growing) databases, especially, the utilization of these observations for the
improvement of land surface parameterization, is important (Yang et al. 2002). Furthermore,
not only the parameterization itself, but also identification of key parameters and constructionof the spatial/temporal distributions of these parameters must be addressed by combining
in-situ and satellite measurements.
Regarding land-cover conditions, it is rather difficult to know the actual agricultural landuse.
Because more than half of the cultivated area in the world exists in the Asian Monsoon region,
realistic treatment of cropland is very important (Kozan et al. 2003). The phenology ofcropland is affected by human activity (seeding /harvesting), and it is sometimes different fromthat of natural vegetation. Furthermore, not only from the view point of water resources, butalso from surface energy balance, agricultural wateruse (irrigation, in particular for paddy
field) must be taken into account (Kim et al. 2001; Yorozu et al. 2005).
One of the important issues to be addressed is deep soil moisture. Most of the current land
surface models treat near surface soil moisture. Evergreen trees, especially in semi-arid regions
utilize the soil moisture at a relatively deep depth. That is why they can be active (hightranspiration rate) even in the dry season. Detailed measurement of soil moisture (andpotential) profiles up to several 10 meters might be required. At the same time, therepresentativeness of the plot scale soil moisture and theta-psi relationship is still a difficult
issue to be solved. Heterogeneous distribution of soil moisture results from the precipitation
pattern, heterogeneity in soil texture, and redistribution caused by micro-topography (Hirose etal. 2002). Partition of runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) is another big issue. The stable
isotope technique is thought to have much potential for this issue, particularly in terms ofimproving land surface models (Henderson-Sellers et al. 2006).

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The reason why GAME and MAHASRI have paid much attention to the land surface
processes is that the Asian monsoon is governed by heat contrast between the ocean and thecontinent. There has been a famous hypothesis that anomalous winter snow cover andsubsequent anomalous soil moisture over Eurasia have a large impact on summer Asianmonsoon precipitation (e.g., Hahn and Shukla 1976; Yasunari et al. 1991). It is therefore
believed that the predictability of monsoon will be improved by more adequate incorporationof land surface processes and information into climate models. However, a recent study using
observational records for several decades revealed that the land wetness-monsoon precipitation
relationship is not so clear (Robock et al. 2003). Also, AGCM simulations showed that thepredictability of seasonal-scale monsoon rainfall is not enhanced even if realistic soil wetness
is provided (Kanae et al. 2006). We should make further efforts to enhance and to determine
the predictability of seasonal-scale monsoon rainfall, focusing on land surface processes, withthe utilization of higher resolution climate models, more advanced land-surface models, anddetailed and longer observation records.
4.3.2. Sea surface processes
The Asian monsoon systems are strongly affected by variability of the sea surface
temperature in the Indo-Pacific sector of the tropical oceans, while the monsoonal winds andrain, in turn, affect the sea surface temperature distribution through many oceanic processes.
The basin-scale seasonal cycle associated with the monsoon is a key element in the sea surface
processes. El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomena have been focused on for more than two
decades as one of the most important variable factors, which introduce significant impact on
the socio-economic activities over the world. However, a wide range of spatial and temporalvariability has been recognized by recent studies as key processes that determine the sea
surface temperature in this area. The processes, which should be addressed for a better
understanding of the ocean components of the climate variability, are;(1) Seasonal variability in the sea surface layer associated with the monsoons(2) Intraseasonal disturbances and their interactions with the upper ocean(3) The Indian Ocean dipole mode and its interaction with El Nino/Southern Oscillation(4) Decadal variability and warming trends in the upper ocean(5) Impacts from the atmospheric and oceanic variations in the extra-tropical regions on
tropical sea surface conditions(6) Surface mixed-layer variability, including influences of salinity.
In addition, several particular ocean circulations, such as the Indonesian throughflow and theshallow overturning cells, affect heat storage and transport between different regions within the
Indo-Pacific sector.
A lack of in situ observations in the ocean, especially in the Indian Ocean, limits ourknowledge of the above issues and predictability of the monsoon climate system. An extended
observation network within the ocean, together with high performance numerical simulations,is necessary for further advance of the study on the sea surface processes.
4.3.3. Impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation
In recent years, indications of the impact of aerosols on cloud microphysical properties andprecipitation have been reported based on in-situ and satellite observations. Model calculations
with various spatial scales also show the importance of aerosol influences on cloud formation

13

and precipitation.
There are basically two kinds of aerosol impacts on atmospheric dynamics. The first one is
the so-called direct effect in which scattering and absorption of aerosol particles affectradiation fields and local heating rates. Local heating of the atmosphere by light absorbing
particles, such as soot particles (primarily consisting of elemental carbon [EC] and are also
called black carbon [BC] particles) can reduce cloud formation locally (semi-direct effect) andmore importantly, change the vertical stability of air causing changes in atmosphericcirculation (one of the direct effects). Recent observations over the Indian Ocean (INDOEX)
show that heating of anthropogenic soot particles in the air has considerable impact on theenergy budget of the atmosphere (Ramanathan et al., 2001). Model calculations show thatheating caused by anthropogenic soot particles over central China are so large that the heating
can induce vertical motion of air causing an increase in precipitation over central China andprecipitation decrease over the northern part of China and Southeast Asia. This mechanism can
explain the observed trend in precipitation in China during the last 40 years (Menon et al.,2002).
The other mechanism in which aerosols can impact cloud and precipitation is the indirect
effect in which aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). Whenwater clouds are considered, an increase in aerosol particle numbers (and therefore, increase in
CCN number) can result in an increase in cloud droplet numbers leading to smaller cloud
droplet particles (under the same liquid water content) that result in an increase of cloud albedo(1st indirect effect). The decrease in cloud droplet size also prevents the formation of drizzle
and rain droplets that result in an extension of the cloud lifetime (2nd indirect effect). In-situ
and satellite observations suggest that due to emissions of anthropogenic aerosols andprecursors, effective cloud droplet diameters in downwind areas are systematically smaller thanthose in surrounding areas and, as a result, precipitation tends to be suppressed (Rossenfeld etal., 2000). Furthermore, since most precipitation likely originates via the ice phase, aerosol
effects on ice clouds might have larger consequences for the hydrological cycle than those on
water clouds.
Quantitative estimates of aerosol effects on atmospheric dynamics still have large
uncertainties and impacts on Asian monsoon are open questions. However, considering the
new findings described above and the rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions over Asia,
there is a strong need of further investigations in the MAHASRI project. Two large
uncertainties should be addressed under the coming project. First, spatial and temporalvariations of aerosols over Asia still have large uncertainties. Because of a lack of systematicand reliable measurements of aerosols in Asia, we have a very weak scientific basis to evaluate
the aerosol impacts. Second, we have very poor understandings on several key processes ofaerosol impacts, such as warm cloud droplet formation from specific aerosol distributions.
Considering these situations, the following studies need to be done within the MAHASRI
project.
(1) Spatial and temporal variation of aerosols
Systematic and reliable measurements of aerosol should be done.
Because aerosol impacts depend on various aerosol parameters, it is desirable to have thefollowing measurements: aerosol mass concentrations, aerosol size distribution, aerosol
composition (inorganic and carbonaceous compounds), and optical properties. Ground based
measurements of these parameters need to be done in several locations. Measurements which

14

are free from local influences and are representative of regional distributions need to be done.
In addition, measurements which are close to sources also need to be made to characterizeaerosol sources, such as measurements in urban regions and locations where significant
biomass burning influences are observed. These measurements may be made as a joint
project with the UNEP/ABC and the GEOSS projects. Because aerosol impact can be quite
different depending on their vertical distributions, measurements in the free troposphere arealso important.
(2) Key processes of aerosol impacts
Several key processes need to be investigated. A relationship between CCN and IN activities,
and various aerosol physical and chemical parameters, such as, aerosol size distribution,
chemical composition, and mixing state need to be studied. This process is, in general,
expressed empirically and therefore, explicit expression needs to be made for aerosols over
Asia which can be very different from those on which the empirical formulation was made.
Radiation budget as a function of altitude needs to be investigated, and for this purpose, arelationship between aerosol parameters and absorption of solar radiation should be studied.
(3) Evaluation of aerosol impacts
Based on knowledge of aerosol distribution and the key processes described above,
evaluation of aerosol impacts should be made using model calculations.
4.3.4. Cloud and precipitation processes
In the GAME-HUBEX, there were intensive observations of soundings at multiple points to
examine the atmospheric environment (e.g., vertical profiles of temperature, mixing ratio ofwater vapor and wind field), conventional meteorological radar to observe meso-α scale cloudsystems, and multiple Doppler radars to observe the structure of meso-β scale cloud systems
embedded in the meso-α scale cloud systems (Zhao and Takeda 1998). By using the
GAME-HUBEX observation results, our understanding has progressed on the structure of themesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Meiyu front (Maesaka 2003), and on isolated
diurnal cumulonimbus clouds in the southern region far from the Meiyu front (Yoshida andUyeda 2002, Shusse et al. 2005). Also, some investigations were conducted on convective
systems over the GAME-Tibet region (Uyeda et al. 2001) and the Indochina Peninsula in the
GAME-T region (Okumura et al. 2003). In the MAHASRI Program, we need intensive
sounding data and multiple Doppler radar observations in order to understand the structure of
MCSs around the Maritime Continent, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. Additionally, since there
have been few statistical studies on the MCSs, we also need statistical analyses of the structure,
duration time, cloud top height, and diurnal variation of MCSs using the observation results.
There have been modeling studies in the GAME region. Satomura (2000) showed thestructure of the propagating MCSs over the northern Indochina Peninsula. Shinoda and Uyeda(2002) showed effective factors in developing deep convective clouds over mainland China inthe southern region far from the Meiyu front. These studies described specific cases of
convective cloud systems. However, no studies have been conducted on the influence of the
MCSs on the atmospheric environment; that is, diabatic heating profiles affected by thedevelopment of MCSs. We can now estimate the vertical diabatic heating profiles explicitly byusing high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRM), e.g., Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator(CReSS: Tsuboki and Sakakibara 2001). These profiles estimated by the results of the CRM
should be compared with those calculated by the general circulation models (GCMs) and15

regional climate models (RCMs) which use cumulus parameterizations. In order to estimate
diabatic heating profiles correctly, we also need research on the bulk microphysical processes
in the CRM.
4.4 Regional sub-programs
4.4.1. Tropics
4.4.1.1. Maritime Continent
Recent observational studies over the Indonesian maritime continent (IMC) suggest theimportance of horizontal convection such as meridional (Hadley and monsoon) and local(sea-land and mountain-valley) circulations. The Asian-Australian monsoon is an annuallyoscillating continent-ocean circulation. Its meridional component is asymmetric to the equator,
and is superimposed on the equatorial symmetric Hadley circulation. The zonal component of
the monsoon circulation is interacted with zonal circulations, i.e., the interannually-varying
zonal Walker circulation and the eastward traveling intraseasonal variations along the equator.
Interactions between these larger-scale circulations and the diurnal variations (in particular
those with scales of a large island) may be the most important process in/around IMC, and also
an outstanding process which must be clarified to understand and predict global climatic
variations.
For approaching the issue mentioned above, we need to establish an observational network
covering IMC and surroundings. As an activity of the Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP),
stations equipped with meteorological Doppler radars and/or wind profilers started to beconstructed over the IMC from FY2005. The major target in the first five years using thisnetwork is the interaction processes between the intra-seasonal variations (seen as super cloudclusters) and the smaller-scale (diurnally-oscillating island-scale) and larger-scale(annually-oscillating monsoon) circulations. In addition, a buoy network will also beconstructed under JEPP for observing intra-seasonal variations over the Indian Ocean, aregional numerical model and a system for capacity building will be developed.
Due to the complex terrain, wind-terrain interactions are very important in motions withvarious time-scale variations from diurnal time-scale to interannual variations (Chang et al
2004, Chang 2005). The study of these interactions needs high resolution observation networkand regional climate models.
4.4.1.2. Indochina
A regional sub-project for Indochina in MAHASRI will be established as the continuation of
GAME-Tropics (GAME-T), which was carried out as a part of GAME. Although many
interesting research results have been obtained through the GAME-T activities, in particular on
the interactions between land and atmosphere (e.g., Kanae et al., 2001; Tanaka et al., 2004),
several important issues are left to be solved. They are;(1) Physical mechanisms of the onset and withdrawal of Southeast Asian monsoon and its
variability (Kiguchi and Matsumoto, 2005; Yoshimura et al., 2004).
(2) Prediction studies and application of predictions for water management and flood warning.
(3) Understanding the diurnal cycle for better prediction of monsoon rainfall (Satomura, 2000).
(4) Assessment and future projection of climatic changes induced by the anthropogenic impacts
on water resources/hazards.
Demonstration of usefulness of the scientific knowledge to the societies in the region is a16

new feature when compared with the previous activities, although scientific challenges willcontinue. Currently, under the JEPP program, the development of a real-time flood warning
system is being prepared for a river basin located in northern Thailand. Similarly, a survey fora flood warning system is being carried out for river basins in the central part of Vietnam. Dataacquisition/rescue with the continuous establishment of hydrometeorological database for theregions is a necessary task as well. In addition to the Chao Phraya river basin, the main
target-basin in GAME-T project, the new regional sub-project will include Vietnam, thenortheastern part of Thailand, and Malaysia. In addition the winter-monsoon becomes a newtarget of research, in particular in Vietnam and Malaysia. Also, hydro-climatological aspects oftropical cyclones will be a new item for investigation because tropical cyclones are one of the
major sources of hydrological disasters in this region.
GAME-T and other related activities have promoted the international collaboration andcapacity-building activities among hydrometeorological institutes and universities in the region.
For example, annual workshops have been held these several years in Thailand with thenumber of participants from 50 to 200. The new regional sub-project will also enhance thecollaboration and capacity-building.
4.4.1.3. South Asia
Several programs relevant to MAHASRI are being planned in India in the next 5 years. The
first is the modernization of basic meteorological observational networks in India by the India
Meteorological Department. Under this plan, about 1000 AWSs, 4000 automatic rain gauges,
and more than 50 Doppler weather radars spread across the country are expected to be installed.
The second relates to the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP), which has beenaddressing issues relevant to the Indian monsoon since 1996, and two field programs; the Bayof Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX, July-August 1999) and the Arabian Sea Monsoon
Experiment (ARMEX, 2002 – 2003) have already been carried out. A multi-disciplinary
observational program called the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) is being
planned during the period 2007-2009 in India. The area of focus is the Indo-Gangetic plain andthe adjoining Bay of Bengal. The major thrust is on understanding various components ofmonsoon systems over land and the Bay of Bengal, and the complete the hydrological cycle
over one or two suitably selected river basins and sub-basins (watersheds). While data will becollected over the entire Indo-Gangetic basin, a sub-region will be densely equipped with
AWSs, self recording rain gauges, flux towers and high resolution radiosondes. Monsoon
exhibits variability on various spatio-temporal scales. In order to understand both theintraseasonal and inter annual variations, intensive observations for two to three consecutive
monsoon seasons are planned. CTCZ will address the following issues.
(1) Propagation of monsoon systems over land, and associated water and energy budgets(2) Detailed land-surface processes(3) Complete hydrological cycle over one or two suitably selected river basins and sub-basins(watersheds)(4) Hydrological feed-backs on monsoon systems(5) Role of natural and anthropogenic aerosols in monsoon clouds and systems
A low inclination earth orbiting research satellite called MEGHA-TROPIQUES is being
planned for launch in the year 2009 under joint Indo-French collaboration. Its orbit inclinationis 20 degrees so that the tropical region is sampled very frequently (typically 4-6 times a day).

17

It will have three main sensors; MADRAS (Microwave Analysis and Detection of Rain andAtmospheric Structures), with channels for sea surface winds, water vapor, liquid water, rain
and ice, SAPHIR (humidity sounder) and ScaRaB for Radiation Budget. The main scienceobjective is to understand the energy and water cycle in tropical convective systems bysimultaneous and frequent measurement of rainfall, water vapor, liquid water, ice, humidity
profiles, surface winds and radiative fluxes.
Four radar systems currently exist in Bangladesh. At present, 2 radars are functioning andone more radar (in the southern side of the country) is committed to replace the Doppler one
very soon. Besides this radar network, one more new Doppler radar at the Meghna Basin is
proposed and expected to be installed by the year 2007. At present, there are 34 First Class
Observatories and 10 PBO (Pilot Balloon Observatories) existing in Bangladesh. Furthermore,
there are 11 new First Class Observatories proposed in different locations throughout thecountry. The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and IWM (Institute of Water
Management) are using a surface water model for flood monitoring and forecasting. They areusing NOAA data as the model input. They need higher temporal resolution data as input toimprove the accuracy of the forecast. Hopefully, the Bangladesh Government will cooperatewith the proposed MAHASRI project. The mentioned facilities are available and helpful for the
implementation of the MAHASRI project. In MAHASRI, the Meghna Basin is one of theimportant study areas for flood monitoring and forecasting. Meghna Basin has typicalcharacteristics of diurnal variation of rainfall: the peak time of rainfall in this land is earlymorning (at about 03:00-06:00 am). Also the rainfall that occurs in this region is frompre-monsoon to monsoon through post-monsoon periods. The results from the Meghna Basinthrough MAHASRI may be used as a model for other study regions. It is planned to establish adense distributed rainfall observation network in heavy rainfall areas of the northeastern regionof the Indian subcontinent that can detect water cycle and climatic changes associated aroundthe Meghna river basin. Several raingauges are concentrated in the relatively small target areain the southern foot of Meghalaya. Simultaneously, continuous radar observations will be
conducted during the rainy season of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons by supplying themagnetron to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Both the data from automaticraingauge networks and radar systems are compared and the real-time data acquisition system
is completed, which will contribute to the quasi-real-time estimation of an hourly rainfall
distribution map with very fine spatial resolution (-2.5km) in the Meghna river basin with theaid of the meso-scale numerical model.
4.4.2. Tibet and Himalayas
4.4.2.1. Tibetan Plateau
The Tibetan Plateau is an elevated heat source protruding into the middle of the troposphere,
which has an important role in the formation of the Asian summer monsoon. During GAME,
observations were focused on the land surface-atmosphere processes. In cooperation with the
Chinese Research Program, TIPEX (Tibetan Plateau Experiment), an intensive surface
observation network was deployed on the plateau during the IOP in 1998. After the IOP, many
automatic stations have been continuously running. In particular, the BJ site (south of Naqu)was upgraded to a so-called super site in the CEOP. With these observations, Tanaka et al.
(2001, 2003), Choi et al. (2004), and Bian et al. (2002) revealed the actual surface heat fluxes
and their seasonal variation at individual turbulent flux sites. Tanaka (2005) used the data from18

extended observations and revealed the inter-annual variability of the fluxes in 1998-2002 at
Amdo. Xu and Haginoya (2003) and Xu et al. (2005) utilized routine observations at
operational surface stations to compute monthly average fluxes at various places on the plateau.
In addition to the ground based research, satellite data are used to map the distribution of nearsurface soil water and surface fluxes (Ma et al. 2003, Oku et al. 2005). As for cloud activity
and precipitation, which are indicators of atmospheric heating due to the latent heat release,rain gauge studies (Ueno et al. 2001) and satellite studies (Fujinami and Yasunari, 2001) wereconducted in addition to the Doppler radar observations during the IOP (e.g. Uyeda et al.,2001).
Although considerable knowledge has been compiled for hydrometeorology over the Tibetan
Plateau, the knowledge is not sufficient to describe the comprehensive energy and water cycleon and over the Plateau. Since observations are limited over the plateau, it is inevitably
required to employ the four dimensional data assimilation approach. In this MAHASRI
research, the data from available observational resources and satellite-retrieved data areintegrated to describe energy and water flow through the use of four-dimensional data
assimilation techniques. The research topics are:(1) Regionalization of surface fluxes on the Tibetan plateau(2) Mesoscale convection and its role on the atmospheric heating(3) Water vapor flux towards and on the Tibetan Plateau and its relation with precipitation,
river discharge and the resulting issues such as water resources and flood in eastern Asia.
4.4.2.2. The Himalayas
One of the prominent monsoon precipitation regions is over the Himalayas. Precipitation is
an important component of the water resources through glacier mass balances in the Himalayas,
but it also causes frequent orographic disasters such as landslide/avalanche by heavy rain/snow.
GLOF (glacier lake outburst flood) in the Himalayas is one of the representative global
environmental issues to be assessed (Yamada and Sharma, 1992). The Himalayas are also partof the Tibetan Plateau which plays an important role in composing the atmosphere-oceansystem of the monsoon through thermodynamic effects (Abe et al., 2004). In the Nepal
Himalayas, dense hydro-meteorological monitoring observatories are distributed by the
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (Shrestha, 2000). International projects, such as
GAME-AAN, Ev-K2-CNR, and NASA/NSF, have conducted basin scale field surveys tounderstand the unique processes of local circulations (Egger et al., 2000; Bollasina et al., 2000;
Ueno et al., 2001). Satellite datasets, such as GMS and TRMM, have been analyzed tounderstand structures of precipitation systems and mechanisms for diurnal variations (Barros etal., 2000; Kurosaki and Kimura, 2002; Bhatt and Nakamura, 2005). However, the lack of
three-dimensional in-situ field observations have prevented the progress of understanding
precipitation processes, such as mechanisms of water vapor transfer, diurnal changes ofstability and their relations to complex topography. Development of new hydro-meteorologicalmodels, which could treat the super complex terrains with deep valleys and steep slopes in the
Himalayas, are also challenging issues (Satomura et al., 2003). Based on such scientificinterests and background, the main study objectives will be proposed as follows:(1) Role of the Himalayas as water vapor transports and heat sources in the Asian monsoon
climate(2) Precipitation mechanisms and its modeling over complex mesoscale terrain

19

(3) Basin-scale nowcasting and monitoring of hydrological components for natural disasterprevention.
To achieve those issues, 1) basin scale intensive observations, 2) development of mesoscalemodeling with complex topography, and 3) establishment of super hydro-meteorologicalobservation sites, will be the important issues for the implementation plan.
4.4.3. East Asia
Based on studies over many years, it has been found that many differences exist between the
monsoon circulation over India and that over East Asia. This suggests that the structure andmain components of the monsoon system over East Asia is likely to be independent of the
Indian monsoon system, even though there are some significant interactions. Thus, the summer
monsoon over East Asia (including the South China Sea) cannot be just thought of as theeastward and northward extension of the Indian monsoon. Another important issue of the East
Asian monsoon its more vital winter component compared with South and Southeast Asianmonsoon. One must take into account its unique regional characteristics. During the past two
decades, more and more attention has been paid to study the East Asian monsoon, because
occurrence of many weather and climate disasters is closely related to the vagaries of the East
Asian monsoon. Recent studies on the East Asian monsoon have been devoted to the following
aspects:(1) The onset of the East Asian summer monsoon, especially in the South China Sea and the
Indochina Peninsula. It has been well documented that the earliest onset of the Asiansummer monsoon occurs in this region.
(2) The seasonal march of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated major seasonalrain belts.
(3) The seasonal march of the East Asian winter monsoon and its relationship with Southeast
and South Asian monsoon.
(4) The Meiyu/Baiu/Changma system and associated multi-scale weather disturbances.
(5) The multi-scale variability of the East Asian monsoon and its effect on anomalous
climate events (i.e. droughts/floods), especially intraseasonal (ISO), interannual (e.g.,
ENSO-monsoon relationship) and interdecadal-scale variability (including effects of PDO,
AO, NAO etc.).
(6) The remote effect of the East Asian monsoon through different teleconnection patterns.
(7) The physical processes and mechanisms related to the East Asian monsoon variability.
(8) The regional response of the East Asian monsoon system and its components to theglobal warming(9) The predictability and prediction of the East Asian monsoon.
Major thrusts for these studies are the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX,
1996-2001) and the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME), especially
GAME/HUBEX. Recently, the field experiment on the atmospheric boundary layer over the
HUBEX area has been performed (Lower Atmosphere and Precipitation Studies led by Profs.
Nakamura and Li). Several experiments on precipitation along the Baiu front have been madeover the East China Sea and along the western coast of Kyushu, Japan. These experiments are
aimed at the study of the structure of the moist boundary layer and its relation to thedevelopment of precipitating systems during the summer monsoon in East Asia.
The seasonal predictions in East Asia have been made by CMA, KMA and JMA and the20

Joint Meeting among them have taken place on a regular basis (twice once a year) since 1998.
However, accuracy of the seasonal prediction is still far from satisfactory. In order to improveprediction of the East Asian monsoon, our effort to resolve issues of the East Asian monsoon
raised above will definitely help us reach this goal, particularly in the prediction of water
cycles in the East Asian monsoon. The endeavor of MAHASRI will certainly meet thisexpectation.
4.4.4. Northeast Asia
Northeastern Asia is characterized by a rapid meridional transition of the vegetation. Thistransition includes boreal forest (Taiga) in the north, southern desert (Gobi) and semi-arid
grassland between them. This transition is an ecological projection of the large spatial andtemporal variability of the precipitation in the region. The average annual precipitation on 55 N
is about 500 mm while that on the 45 N is less than 100 mm. In addition, interannual
variability of the precipitation in the region is on the same order of the magnitude as its
climatic average, which indicates that the vegetation in this region is thought to be highlyvariable. In some parts of the region, increasing precipitation as well as increasing air
temperature has been observed in the last several decades (e.g., Endo et al, 2006). Furthermore,
the frequency of heavy precipitation events was found to have been increased with anincreasing number of rainy days in the eastern part of the region, while a decreasing number ofheavy precipitation events is obvious in the northern part of the region.
During the last years of GAME, an intensive hydrometeorological and hydroclimatologicalstudies has been conducted by a project called RAISE (Rangelands Atmosphere-HydrosphereBiosphere Interaction Study Experiment in Northeastern Asia) as a cooperation between
Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia, and Japanese scientists. Especially,
intensive surface hydrometeorological observations were made in Kherlen river basin since
2002. Analyses of observations gave a better understanding of the region’s hydrology andmeteorology, especially in its climatic view and a “snapshot” view during the observation
period. A part of the RAISE observations will be also continued under the regional subprogramof MAHASRI to acquire better understanding of interannual variations of the region’shydrometeorology.
In general, gridded daily precipitation products are less accurate at higher latitudes due topoor sampling from satellites and sparse surface observation networks. In order to acquire
better understandings of temporal and spatial variations of the precipitation in northeast Asia,
gridded daily precipitation data need to be compared with the observations by a dense surface
network and radar observations. A rain gauge meso-net will be also used to acquire better
understanding of the temporal and spatial structure of the region's precipitation.
Recently, it was found that the rainy season has a "break" in the middle of July. During the
break, Rossby waves are trapped in the Asian jet, and are climatologically phase-locked inseasonal evolution (Iwasaki and Nii, 2006). One possible mechanism is that localized descentover the Mediterranean Sea and the Aral Sea are induced by the remote effect of heating
associated with Indian Monsoon (Rodwell and Hoskins 2001) and the associatedupper-tropospheric convergence acts as the source of the stationary Rossby wave (Enomoto etal. 2003). This suggests that there is an interconnection between Indian monsoon and Rossby
waves through the Asian jet, which needs to be investigated further for the long-range
prediction of precipitation in northeastern Eurasia.

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Since the region is thought to suffer from the largest temperature increase according toprojections of global warming (e.g., Yatagai and Yasunari, 1994), the possibility of futuredesertification is a real threat to the local people whose economy relies on nomadic livestock. It
has been found that amount of vegetation is strongly controlled by the summer precipitation,
which accounts for 70% of the annual precipitation (Iwasaki, 2006). Temporal and spatial
variability of the vegetation amount and its activities needs to be monitored with satellite
remote sensing and ground-based measurements, and their relationship with interannual
variability of precipitation should be studied
Due to strong vegetation variability, northeastern Asia can serve as a critical benchmark forland-surface models. These models will be tested with the observations at a forest and a steppe
grassland to reproduce dynamics between soil moisture, plant activity and atmospheric forcing
in the region. Then, stochastic framework with Monte-Carlo approach (Rodriguez-Iturbe andPorporato, 2005) will be used to predict the effect of global warming on the land-atmosphereinteraction by using the prediction of atmospheric variable after the global warming (Sato et al.,2006). Moreover, regional atmospheric models will be used to predict the effect of thevegetation variability on the region’s hydroclimatology, such as precipitation and temperature.
The source of water precipitated over the region has been long disputed and, therefore,should be investigated under MAHASRI. A budget analysis of water vapor using reanalysis
data (Yasunari, 2003) suggested that precipitated water is evaporated from the region’s land
surface, while a stable isotope approach (Yamanaka et al, 2006) pointed to subtropical marine
atmosphere as its origin. A regional atmospheric model that incorporates stable isotope process
will be used to investigate detailed budget and path ways of atmospheric water vapor. Stable
isotope approach will be also utilized to “trace” groundwater and river water (Tsujimura et al,2006).
Dust storms frequently occur in association with the strong wind and exposed soil conditionsof Mongolia (Jugder and Natsagdorj, 1992, 1993, 2002, 2003). When the phenomenon of dust
and sand storms continues over several days in the Gobi Desert, Mongolian nomadic herders
refer to it as the “Ugalz”. While dust and sand storms disrupt local human life and economic
activities, they also cause trans-boundary environmental problems in the downwind countries
in NE Asia. Furthermore, they have a counter-effect to the regional climate through radiation
processes. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a regional monitoring and early warning
network for dust storms in Northeast Asia.
5. Observations and modeling5.1. Observations
5.1.1. Remote sensing
Satellite observations have the advantages of spatially uniform data acquisition andrepeatability. In addition, several unique space-borne sensors, such as TRMM (TropicalRainfall Measurement Mission)-PR (Precipitation Radar), make it possible to better understandthe nature and dynamics of surface and cloud processes. Moreover, FORMOSAT-3 provides
temperature, humidity and height information with 1 km x 1 km resolution. Essentially,satellite images consist of a number of “snap shots” from space. The CEOP project has beensuccessfully archived the huge satellite dataset, part of which has been partly assimilated forthe numerical prediction model as a pilot case during the last two years.
From the view point of numerical modeling teams, particularly those for GCMs and RCMs,

22

they expect that the role of satellite is to fill the “gap” between the GCM grid scale (currently
T106 is popular, approximately 100km in horizontal scale) and real scale. For short andmedium time forecasting, like THORPEX, accurate initial conditions obtained using data
assimilation is essential. However, MAHASRI’s target period is longer than that in the
THORPEX. In this case, surface sub-grid parameterizations or land-surface assimilation bysatellite data would be more important, for not only the improvements in forecast accuracy, butalso for better understanding the land-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere interaction process.
Satellite observations capture “real” phenomena or changes on the surface or in theatmosphere. Thus, efforts from both directions (collaboration with modeling community, andwith field scientists) would be required. Taking account of such circumstances, the role and/or
efforts of the satellite community for the MAHASRI activities will be addressed as follows:(1) To build climatological variables only by the satellites datasets, in particular, over monsoon
Asia. A series of Advanced Very High Radiometer (AVHRR) boarded on NOAA satellites
already has more than twenty years of use. TRMM has been working well for more thanseven years except for the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) sensor.
Such long-term monitoring of the Earth by several satellites makes it possible to provide
climatological variables based on satellite observation only. Inter-comparisons of theseobserved variables lead to the construction of the new “current” climatology, including theeffect of human activities, such as land cover changes.
(2) Such activities, products, and analyzed results will provide the information for planningwhere the effective areas for the installation of in-situ sites are. During the GAME, satellite
analyses followed and/or used the results of in-situ measurements for interpretation.
However, in the MAHASRI, satellite data have to provide something for the
implementations. Based on the hind-casting of accumulated variables by GCMs,
inter-comparison with satellite datasets will be useful for the improvement of GCM
schemes or parameterizations. Comparisons of interannual variations by GCMs withsatellite datasets (e.g., cloud activity, vegetation, soil moisture, precipitation amount) will
also be useful.
(3) Studies on how to assimilate the satellite data into GCMs for initial spin-up. CEOP has
attempted this and MAHASRI satellites communities should collaborate with the CEOP
archiving team.
(4) Capacity building beyond the sectionalism of satellite communities. Studies on data fusionor the synergy effect will be expected by collaboration with other sections (for examples,
ocean research communities use similar sensors data, but have different purposes in physics
and bio-chemistry). However, at present, such collaboration is not working inhydrometeorological community. A domestic workshop organized by HyARC, Nagoya
University and CEReS, Chiba University in Japan was held at the end of FY2004 withgreat success. Such activities will have to be continued, not only in domestic (Japanese)
communities, but also in the international community, which will directly be connected
into CEReS, and will have to be lead by the remote sensing research community in Japan.
5.1.2. Isotopes
The survey of oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of monthly precipitation in the
Asian monsoon region is being conducted by IAEA, in cooperation with the WMO. The
obtained data shows a significant lower isotopic value in the Asia monsoon region compared to23other tropical regions. Aggawal et al. (2004) indicates that this isotopic feature reveals
moisture source and transport patterns, however, model studies need to be performed to explainsuch longitudinal variation quantitatively.
The high-frequency (daily) monitoring of isotopic content of precipitation in the Asiansummer monsoon region has been initiated by the GAME project, and we found the observed
short-term isotopic variation is closely related with large-scale moisture transport; e.g.. isotopic
content significantly decreases when large-scale disturbances pass through the region (Tian etal., 2001; Yoshimura et al., 2003). Yoshimura et al. (2003) roughly reproduces the daily
isotopic variation in Thailand by using a water isotope circulation model based on the Rayleighdistillation concept and shows the stable isotope is a powerful tool to understand theenvironmental conditions, such as transport pathways and source region in the Asian monsoon
region. Despite their success, however, the estimated isotopic value of precipitation during
weak moisture transportation, such as convective cloud or diurnal variation, is underestimated.
To improve this failure, we need to get the isotopic information of source moisture andincorporate more precise atmospheric vertical transportation schemes that include boundary
conditions.
Recently, a Japanese isotope group successfully developed an atmospheric GCM and land
surface model that incorporates water isotopes. Thus, in this new project we try to reproduce
observed spatial and temporal variation of water isotopes and understand hydrologicalcirculation in the atmosphere and land-surface over the Asian monsoon region by using more
realistic models such as an isotope-GCM coupled with a more realistic land surface scheme. To
validate the model results and improve the model scheme for isotopic calculation, we want toperform the following observations;(1) Extend the monitoring station for precipitation sampling and add river water sampling
regularly. Although JAMSTEC/IORGC has maintained the monitoring stations ofprecipitation in the Asian monsoon region, there are a few stations in the western part. Thus,
we want to initiate regular water sampling in Myanmar and/or Bangladesh. We also want toinitiate the monitoring of isotopic content of river water to compare the modeled isotopic
variety.
(2) Construct the super station for isotopic observation. As described above, to reproduce
cumulative precipitation, the model has to simulate the vertical atmospheric transportation
process through the boundary layer. Furthermore, precipitation gives us limited information
during times at which precipitation occurs, thus we need to get standard observation datafor comparison with model results. To resolve these problems, we want to construct newsuper stations in the study region and carry out atmospheric moisture sampling through theatmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and evapotranspirated moisture from the land surface.
At the super station, to develop the isotope scheme incorporated in the models we perform
one dimensional isotope balance sampling.
(3) Carry out intensive observation for isotope sampling over the ocean. In our model, an
isotopic form of bulk parameterization is used to calculate isotopic content of evaporation
flux. Although the ocean is the primary source for precipitation in the study area, there are
few observations for isotope flux from the tropical ocean. Thus, to reproduce the isotopic
content of precipitation correctly, we have to examine whether the model can properly
simulate source values.
After improving the model by using the results from observed data, we estimate the origin of24

water over this region more precisely and discuss what factors are controlling Asian monsoon
activity.
5.2. Modeling5.2.1. GCMs
5.2.1.1. Model development
Representation of precipitation in various temporal and spatial scales is still the main focus
of monsoon modeling. The diurnal cycle is the most dominant signal among various time-scalevariations in the climate system. Precise phase and timing of the diurnal cycle is a necessity formonsoon modeling as energy and water exchange between the atmosphere and underlying
surface are largely regulated by the diurnal cycle (e.g. Dai 2001). Thus, the diurnal cycle ingeneral circulation models (GCMs) has been investigated (e.g., Collier and Bowman 2004; Dai
and Trenberth 2004; Arakawa and Kitoh 2005), and the state-of-the-art models still show
systematic differences in the timing of the diurnal cycle. The reason for this deficiency is yet tobe resolved..
The tropical intraseasonal oscillation is another phenomenon for which GCMs are unable tosimulate both for the predictive mode and the simulation mode (Lin et al. 2005). Simulation of
the tropical intraseasonal oscillation is known to be most sensitive to the convective
parameterization (Slingo et al. 2005).
Although the land-surface component of climate models has been progressed during the
GAME project, large biases remain in model climatological surface temperature, soil moisture,snow cover/snow water equivalent, and surface fluxes.
To alleviate the above problems, further improvement of model physics in clouds, aerosols
and precipitation, boundary layer, and land surface processes is needed.
5.2.1.2. Simulation of the Asian monsoon system
Several studies have suggested that there are still significant shortcomings in representing
the mean monsoon climate and its variation on various time scales (e.g., Webster et al. 1998;
Kang et al. 2002a, 2002b; Wang et al. 2005). One of the emerging issues is the fundamental
difference between the one-tier approach and the two-tier approach. This is demonstrated by
calculating local SST-rainfall lag correlation. The observations show that rainfall lags behind
the SST beneath for about two pentads over the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean(Arakawa and Kitoh 2004), while the two-tier approach (atmospheric GCM forced by theobserved SST) cannot reproduce this SST-rainfall relationship. There are also GCM studies
that indicate air-sea coupling modulates tropical intraseasonal oscillation (e.g. Rajendran andKitoh 2005). These results suggest that the use of coupled GCMs is necessary to simulate the
Asian monsoon and its variability (Wang et al. 2005; Inatsu and Kimoto, 2005).
Considering that a large part of interannual variability of the monsoon is related to amodulation of seasonal cycle, it is essential that the GCM can simulate realistically theclimatological seasonal cycle, including monsoon onset and retreat. Well-known is the
ENSO-monsoon relationship, for which the anomalous regional Hadley circulation andanomalous Walker circulation associated with ENSO is responsible for monsoon variations.
This relationship, although statistically significant over the available long-term observed
records, shows a decadal fluctuation and even shows a collapse in the relationship in recent
years (e.g. Krishna Kumar et al. 1999). Some modeling groups are studying the Indian25

monsoon-ENSO relationship by analyzing long-term GCM simulations, however, mechanisms
for fluctuations of this relationship are unresolved.
Future projection of the changes in the Asian monsoons induced by anthropogenic effects,
such as increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land
surface/land use changes, may be outside of the focus of the MAHASRI. However, GCM
studies in reproducing monsoon changes in the past several decades using appropriate forcing
need to be performed to understand monsoon variability and its mechanisms.
5.2.1.3. Prediction of the Asian monsoon
Monsoon prediction is important, not only for the total seasonal rainfall, but also for the
onset, evolution, and extremes. Seasonal forecasting is operationally issued by some of thenational meteorological and/or hydro-meteorological centers in charge. Despite model
improvements in recent years, skill of the Indian monsoon prediction has not progressed(Gadgil et al. 2005). The East Asian monsoon also varies from year to year with flooding, hotspells or cool summers, and is influenced both from the tropics and mid-latitudes, which is still
poorly predicted in advance. The predictability problem has been a main focus of monsoon
studies including GAME, but is yet to be fully resolved. Systematic hindcast experiments
should be done in the new MAHASRI program to clarify the predictability of monsoon
forecasts to help model development. Collaboration between the research community andoperational centers is highly needed.
5.2.2. RCMs & CSRMs
Non-hydrostatic, cloud-resolving global models would be ideal for modeling studies of themonsoon. However, the required computer resources by global cloud-resolving models aretremendous. Therefore, regional hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic climate models (RCMs) using
nesting techniques must be used at least for several more years.
One of the topics to be studied by fine mesh RCMs including non-hydrostatic regional
cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) are effects of topography which are O(10 - 102) km
in width and O(102 - 103) km in length and are not resolved properly by coarse mesh global
models. These meso-scale mountains are located near the coast of Asia in many places, andmost of them align about at the right angle to the monsoon wind direction. Therefore,
tremendous precipitation is observed around these meso-scale mountains (e.g., Xie et al. 2006),
although the coarse mesh global models do not reproduce such heavy rainfall in those areas.
Xie et al. (2006) pointed out the possibility that meso-scale mountains near the western coastof the Indian subcontinent and the Indochina Peninsula affect the South-Asian scaleatmospheric circulation through the large amount of latent heat release by orographic
precipitation. This point has not been well recognized yet and should be cross-examined byother models and in other regions.
Effects of fine-scale heterogeneous land surfaces also spread out widely (Sen et al. 2004),
although the effect itself depends strongly on environmental atmospheric conditions (Kanae etal. 2001). Making use of less computer-resource demands of RCMs and CSRMs than those of
GCMs, we can assess effects of variation of each land surface condition such as soil moisture,snow mass, vegetation, and so on, using the ensemble simulation method. The land surface
condition in the South and Southeast Asia significantly varies from rainy season to dry season.
Therefore, the effects of the land surface conditions probably differ from season to season,

26

which are not yet well understood. In East Asia, on the other hand, the paddy field which keeps
a shallow water body for several months in the warm season expands vastly in the plane. The
shallow water body serves the warm saturated surface boundary throughout the day and, thus,
makes peculiar seasonal variation of soil characteristics. For example, it is pointed out that thelatent heat flux from paddy field in southeastern China largely contributes toward thedevelopment of deep convective clouds (Shinoda and Ueda 2002).
To identify the problem and to provide improved methods for cumulus parameterizations
curretly used are examples of the other topics to be studied using RCMs, especially CSRMs. In
this context, the Regional Atmospheric Inter-Model Evaluation Project (RAIMEP) was
initiated by Y. Wang of the University of Hawaii, USA. Currently, about one dozen RCMs areplanned to participate. The initial focus is on the East Asian monsoon region in summer season.
Though, RAIMEP is not yet started (as of September 2006), it will provide useful information
on characteristics of cumulus parameterization in both RCMs and GCMs.
It is also important to compare monsoon systems among different regions in Asia.
Mechanisms of onset, break, and retreat of monsoon should be different region by region.
Studies of monsoon in different regions using the same model would clarify the difference ofthe mechanisms and also reveal hidden problems in the model.
5.2.3. Hydrological modeling
Most present hydrological models are aimed to forecast/predict floods and water resources.
However, development of hydrological modeling relies on the meteorological observations andhydrological measurements. This leads to weak applicability and less flexibility for mostpresent hydrological models. The operational hydrological models used for flood forecasting
and water resources assessment have common conceptual and lumped structure andinsufficient description of hydrological processes. Therefore, the major work in application ofhydrological models is calibration of model parameters rather than real forecast and prediction.
On the other hand, new types of hydrological models have been developed incorporating GIS
and Remote Sensing technologies since the 1980s. The major advancement is in thedevelopment of physically-based distributed hydrological models. The International
Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) has initiated a 10-year research program ofPredictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB, 2003-2012), to integrate hydrological sciences andtechnologies to improve the hydrological prediction capacity for society (Sivapalan et al.,2003). The reduction and determination of uncertainties (e.g., Chiang et al., 2006) is the key ofPUB. For MAHASRI, in addition, the following are the key issues in hydrological modeling.
(1) Development of the hydrologically enhanced land-surface process model
Unfortunately, most of the present land surface models focus on the vertical heat and water
fluxes rather than horizontal water movement. On the other hand, hydrological models(rainfall-runoff models) tend to ignore the energy transfer. The present challenge is to bridge
the gap between the land-surface scheme and hydrological model, which emerged in the
middle of 1990’s (Liang et al., 1994). In addition, paddy field for rice crop, a major land-use
type in Asia, is not frequently considered in both land surface models and hydrological models(Kim et al., 2001). Thus, hydrologically enhanced land-surface process model (e.g., Yang et al.,2005) is urgently required in which heat-CO2 transfer (vertical direction) and water movement(both vertical and horizontal directions) are properly represented for major land use types
including artificial irrigation effects. This is expected to improve atmospheric predictions

27

through better representation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration (Shinoda and Uyeda,
2002; Koster et al., 2004), and it can expand hydrological prediction from the traditional flood
and water resources to the biosphere environment.
(2) Use of atmospheric model products for water resources management
In addition to the commonly used rain gauge network, weather radars and numerical weather
prediction models offer a new opportunity in hydrology to really carry out flood and drought
prediction by utilizing a distributed hydrological modeling approach. In particular, it isnecessary to develop a down-scaling or transferring algorithm that can make use of
atmospheric model products in distributed hydrological models for the predictions at various
time-ranges from a few days up to a season. Thus, it is required to pursue the development ofdown-scaling method based on the knowledge of space-time structure of rainfall (e.g., Shrestha
et al., 2005) and to carry out a hydrological hindcast through a relatively long period for theverification of the usefulness of the atmospheric model products for hydrological prediction(Hirabayashi et al., 2005).
6. Applications
6.1. Weather/Climate Prediction – for contribution to the social welfare
The final goal of MAHASRI is to contribute to the sustainable development and to promotesocial welfare in the Asian monsoon region through applying the scientific findings and/or
understandings of the water cycle processes and mechanisms to prevention and mitigation ofwater-related natural disasters and efficient water resource managements. There are three
processes to reach this goal. The first is the near-real-time monitoring of the current
distribution of precipitation and global and local atmospheric circulation through collecting andobjectively analyzing the observation data. The key issue is to construct the regional
observation and communication systems and to maintain them. The second is the regularweather/climate prediction using the numerical models, which has been mentioned in Section
5.2. Here, it should be noted that every prediction has uncertainty inevitably, and the ensemble
prediction technique is one of the objective methods that quantitatively estimate the extent of
uncertainty. Although the operation of ensemble prediction system seems too heavy task forthis scientific project, it would be possible if there is an involvement of an operational
weather/climate prediction center. The third is to make some tailored products which aresuitable for the usage in the real decision-making processes in socio-economic activities of theabove mentioned scientific outputs. This last stage is the most important and the most difficult
task for our weather/climate information to be beneficial to the social welfare. The process
requires close collaborations with the users of the weather/climate information, such as rivermanagers and crop managers. For example, in order to clarify the climatic sensitivity in thetargeted activity, it is necessary to collect fairly long-term historical data not only on
weather/climate but also on indices used for the practical decision-making and relatedsocio-economic factors. Because these data are archived at the responsible organizations and/or
institutions separately, it is important to construct a mechanism to smoothly exchange thenecessary data to research their relationships. MAHASRI will be able to play a major role inpromoting inter-disciplinary and/or inter-institutional communication. The specific plans forthe development of tailored weather/climate information will be presented in the following
sections. Here, some technical issues on climate (seasonal) prediction which would be helpful28

for the development of tailored products will be presented.
Firstly, it is noted that the long-term re-analysis data of atmosphere-ocean-land parameters
are quite useful for studying the climate variability in the global and regional scale and its
relationship with local weather/climate events, since that gives us consistent and missing-freedataset (Schubert, et al. 1993). The JMA and the CRIEPI (Central Research Institute of ElectricPower Industry) have finished the cooperative re-analysis project, named JRA-25 (Japanese
25-year re-analysis project), in March 2006. Their final products, providing the global
atmosphere and surface analysis for the period from 1979 through 2004, have been released tothe climate researchers’ community since July 2006 (URL: http://jra.kishou.go.jp/). The
analyzing system for the JRA-25 was based on the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation
system (3D-Var) which had been used as the JMA’s operational global data assimilation
system until February 2005, though the horizontal resolution of the global prediction model
was reduced to medium-resolution (T106L40). Since the GAME IOP data and other uniquedata, such as Chinese snow cover, were used in the JRA-25, the JRA-25 data are likely to havebetter representation of the Asian monsoon system than the previous long-term re-analyses,
such as Reanalysis-1/2 by NCEP/NOAA (Kalnay et al. 1996) and ERA-15/40 by ECMWF. In
fact, the precipitation amounts reproduced in JRA-25 are proved more similar to thoseobserved from satellite (GPCP) than the previous re-analyses. The same assimilation system as
in JRA-25 is being operated by the JMA for the period after 2005 on near-real-time basis.
These sets of analysis data are thought to be quite useful not only for analysis and monitoringof climate system in the Asian monsoon region and verification of seasonal prediction(Annamalai et al. 1999), but also for the research on the variability and change of climate
system and their effects on water cycle over the globe. Finer-scale, more accurate andlonger-term re-analysis data would enhance their utility considerably. The next-generation
re-analysis project, which is based on the state-of-art 4-dimensional variational data
assimilation system (4D-Var) and with a higher-resolution prediction model of the JMA, isnow under consideration. MAHASRI will support the next-generation re-analysis project byproviding the historical observation data and other special observations archived in MAHASRI,
which could contribute to the better quality of re-analysis in the Asian monsoon region.
Secondly, it is pointed that the ‘downscaling’ technique, both spatially and temporally, is oneof the key techniques to develop a tailored products for practical decision-making (Leung et al.
2003). Many of the decision support models, such as the crop growing model and the riverdischarge model, need finer-scale data of meteorological parameters for input, both spatiallyand temporally, than those provided by global climate models. However, for the prediction
period longer than a week, the reliability of daily prediction becomes so low due to the chaotic
nature of atmospheric flow that only the temporally averaged or large spatial-scale quantities
have meaningful information. In addition, the horizontal resolutions of most current global
climate prediction models are larger than 100 km, which is hard to resolve small scale
topography and meteorological phenomena controlled by it. It might be possible to extract astatistical relationship between the re-analyzed data on grids and observation data at points, if
fairly large number of samples is available. On the other hand, the dynamical downscaling
method, which means fine-mesh regional climate model run with its initial and boundary
conditions given by a global prediction model, might be able to provide us physicallyconsistent prediction even in the area where no long-term observational data are available,

29

though it may have some systematic model biases to be calibrated. If the regional climate
model is able to simulate meso-scale convective systems, it might be able to suggest us thepossibility of occurrence of extreme weather events, which are valuable for disaster prevention.
They are also useful for verifying the parameterizations used in global climate models, such as
cumulus and shallow convection schemes (e.g. Lappen and Randall 2001). Thanks to theadvancement of computer and telecommunication technology, operation of a regional climate
model seems to become feasible in Southeast Asian countries, so it should be achieved in
MAHASRI.
Finally, it is emphasized that the probabilistic prediction products should be incorporated in
the decision support system. As mentioned previously, due to the chaotic nature of atmosphericflow, the climate prediction longer than a week has inherent uncertainty, which is expressed inprobability. The dynamical ensemble prediction method, which runs tens of dynamical
forecasts from slightly different initial and/or boundary conditions, is the objective andefficient way to estimate the uncertainty in the prediction. It is not straightforward to convert
the probabilistic prediction into the quantity which is suitable for the input of the decision
support system. However, an extensive research was done to use the downscaled seasonalensemble prediction as an input of the crop yield model and the dynamic biological model for
malaria epidemic prediction, and it showed a potential benefit of the ensemble prediction(Palmer et al. 2004). It should be noted that probabilistic predictions are only able to beverified using fairly large number of samples. The long-term retrospective ensemble forecast
experiments, often called ‘hindcasts’, are absolutely necessary for the verification of theprobabilistic seasonal prediction. They are also useful for calibrating the model’s systematic
biases and deriving unbiased probabilities. Though long-term ensemble hindcasts take hugeamount of computing resources, it should be promoted to assess the net value of theprobabilistic seasonal prediction for the society. For the long-range forecasts longer than aseason, ocean-land-atmosphere coupled models are commonly used. However, inclusion ofocean/land processes into a forecasting model may add significant systematic bias to theprediction. Some leading researches show that the ensemble prediction using different coupledmodels, which is called a “multi-model ensemble technique”, can reduce the systematic biasesof the models and produce more reliable probabilistic prediction (Palmer et al. 2004). For
implementing the multi-model ensemble technique, each operational forecasting center and/or
research institution should be synchronized with each other and exchange each other’s outputs
in the same format. MAHASRI is expected to be a framework of such kind of collaboration
through building cooperative relationship among the relevant institutions and researchcommunities.
6.2. Floods/droughts and water resources
6.2.1. Flood/drought prediction and warning system
The development of flood and drought prediction systems is a major way to apply thescientific knowledge obtained through GAME and MAHASRI to the societies in Asia.
Floods in Asia can be divided into two major categories. One is flash flood, and another isflood in a large river where the temporal difference between upstream flood and downstream
flood is a few days to weeks, or even months. A flash flood prediction system is composed ofreal-time precipitation observation systems mostly utilizing radars and on-line rain gauges, and30

a very short-term precipitation forecast systems. Collaboration with GEOSS is recommended
for the development and improvement of real-time observation systems in Asian monsoon
countries. For the development of prediction system for floods in a large river, precipitation
predictions corresponding to the time-scale of weather forecasts (a few days to a week) andappropriate surface-runoff simulations for a large river basin are helpful. The development ofland-surface hydrological models appropriate for a large river basin is a big scientific challenge.
The monitoring and data-assimilation of land surface hydrological components are of help, andthe utilization of remote sensing techniques is recommended. For drought prediction systems,
intraseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction is needed. Intraseasonal to seasonal
precipitation prediction would be carried out by global coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models
or statistics-based models. Also, once again, the monitoring and data-assimilation of land
surface hydrology is required. In this aspect, collaboration with GEOSS is also recommended.
In addition to runoff processes, evaporation, snow-melting, and groundwater processes in land
surface hydrological models are of focus for drought prediction.
In every temporal scale described above, quantitative aspects of precipitation prediction
should not be forgotten. Quantitative precipitation prediction is a major challenge at eachtemporal scale. For this, probabilistic forecasts of precipitation may be used for hydrologicalprediction. Also, hydrological prediction may need to incorporate the ensemble approach. As apart of precipitation prediction, collaboration with THORPEX is expected both for very
short-term precipitation forecasts and daily to weekly precipitation forecasts.
Warning systems require more social and engineering considerations in addition toscience-based prediction systems. Actually, the development and implementation of a warning
system is likely out of target in this science plan. However, a strong advantage of this scientificgroup is the collaboration between scientists in research institutes and officers working inoperational agencies in many Asian countries. Also needed is collaboration with field-based
officers who are doing management of dam operation and/or bank management. Thus, thepossible connection of prediction systems with warning systems in society should be kept inmind throughout the scientific activities.
Prototypes are currently being developed: for example, a real-time forecasting system for alarge river in Japan (http://yodogawa.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/) developed by Kyoto University and areal-time prediction system for the entire globe (http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/LIVE/)
developed by the University of Tokyo. Due to the limitation in the availability of the real-time
meteorological forecast data, the temporal target of both systems is relevant to short-term
weather forecasting.
6.2.2. Water resources and management
In most parts of the Asian monsoon regions, water withdrawal for agricultural irrigation is
the major part of water usage, and the rainy season roughly corresponds to the crop-growing
season. These facts imply that the prediction of potential available water amounts a few
seasons ahead is of great benefit to the societies. Thus, one of the two major objectives of
GAME was to improve the seasonal prediction of the Asian monsoon and the application of theprediction for water resources management. However, only a few attempts were made for theseobjectives. Both the dynamical prediction methods using coupled atmosphere-land-ocean
models and the statistical methods based on climate indices cannot yet get high prediction
scores practically or quantitatively for water managers. “Chaos” in nature may restrict the31

predictability of seasonal scale water resources. In addition, the discussion betweenhydro-meteorological researchers and operational water management officers was not
sufficient in GAME project for establishing a practical water management system utilizing
prediction, particularly in developing countries. The benefit of the usage of climate prediction
for water management and the cost arising from the uncertainty of prediction has not yet been
fully investigated. In reality, the sentence “seasonal prediction of Asian monsoon a few seasonsahead is of benefit” itself is not verified in a scientific manner. Also needed is the evaluation of“benefit” in the long-term perspective.
Apart from the seasonal-scale prediction, an issue which we should not neglect is that thecurrent hydrological cycles are highly affected by human activities (Nilsson et al., 2005) andsuch anthropogenic effects may be larger in the future (Oki and Kanae, 2006). Presumably,
only scientists can assess the impacts, from the past to a possible future, of land-use change,
global-warming, increase in water withdrawal, and others on hydrological cycles. The
assessment is necessary for infrastructure management.
Keeping the above facts in mind and assuming that the key issues in the predictions of
intraseasonal to seasonal scale are documented in other sections, the following study-items willbe thoroughly carried out as a part of the MAHASRI activities:(1) Develop a prototype of the decision-support system for water resource managers, including
development of a prototype of an ensemble hydrological prediction system.
(2) Assess the net value of the above mentioned decision-support system in each temporal scaleby the long-term retrospective simulation experiment.
(3) Assess the anthropogenic impacts on hydrological cycles for the planning of water resource
management.
6.3. Application to the rice production in Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is a densely populated region which occupies nearly one third of the world’s
population. The reason it can be habitable by such a large number of people is thought to bethat it is located in the humid Monsoon Asian climate with topographic features resulting fromthe Alps Himalaya orogenic movement, and that consequently rice production is performed
efficiently in this region. Paddy fields are filled with water, so their soil is hardly depleted ofnutrients, is resistant to erosion, and maintains its fertility. They are therefore capable ofproducing rice under a continuous cropping system and yield a sustainable agricultural systemin these areas.
In this region, the amount of precipitation greatly differs in various areas owing to the effects
of geographical features. There are rivers with various lengths and catchment areas; forexample, the Mekong river originating from the Tibetan plateau is about 20,000 km long, theChao Phraya river originating from Thailand is about 4,600 km long, and the Mun and Chi
rivers flowing through the valley of the Korat Plateau is about 1,200-1,400 km long. There aresome areas with salt damage as a result of existing rock salt in bed rock. These factors cause
the water supply available for rice production to greatly differ depending on the region.
There are many methods of growing rice such as irrigated and rainfed methods owing to theexistence of various water environments. Moreover, there are also various irrigation methods
used such as pumping ground water, river water and reservoir water, using flood water,colmatage, and using saltless water from low tide, depending on the topographic features of theplace where the paddy field is located. In addition, the temporary change in the amount of32

precipitation has a large impact on cultivation management factors, such as cultivation period,
cropping pattern, the cropping system and cropping rotation, and can lead to disasters such as
flood, drought, salt damage, and saltwater intrusion.
We now have the large task of improving rice production under the various water conditions
mentioned above to provide for the population of Southeast Asia in the future. To approach
this issue, we examine the aspects of rice production, also considering cultivation management
factors related to the water condition of paddy fields. We then develop a methodology ofdescribing the impact of water conditions due to intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual changes of
the amount of precipitation brought about by the effect of the Asian monsoon variation on riceproduction on the regional scale. We finally predict the future impact of its variation on riceproduction in Southeast Asia under global warming in the 21st century.
7. Data management
The main objective of data management activity in MAHASRI is to support research activity
to accomplish the scientific goal of the MAHASRI by providing necessary data to the researchcommunity.
The major functions are as follows;(1) To provide necessary data to users smoothly with minimum cost(2) To develop a guideline for quality control(QC) and data exchange(3) To coordinate with other projects and organizations for data exchanges.
Background
In international multilateral research cooperation, especially observational projects in earthscience, data management is always one of the most important issues for success.
Its functions are mainly divided into two parts;(1) A policy for data dissemination,provision and exchange(2) A guideline of data treatments including QC, their opening.
Through the GAME project, a large amount of data has been obtained and produced. Now
they are being utilized as valuable resources. Currently, most stations established for the
GAME project are registered as the reference site in the CEOP. Their data are being archived
with a sophisticated way and widely utilized under the CEOP data policy based on theexperiences in the GAME.
Basic policy
Taking the circumstances mentioned above into consideration, the following items are
adopted as basic policies.
(1) To maintain and develop the GAME database in the MAHASRI by establishing a core data
center with a data management core group(2) To be coordinated with WMO, GEWEX and CEOP in data policy
In particular, the sophisticated way of data control in the CEOP should be a good example.
(3) To prohibit commercial use of data and its transfer to third parties.
Framework for data management activity
The main part of data management activity should be done by the MAHASRI data center
which consists of a data management core group and sub-groups for satellite, model data, etc.
In addition, some regional sub-centers should be established to share their work.
Other subjects in data management(1) Data control

33

- Target data includes observational (operational and experimental) and processeddata.
- Quality control should be done as the obligation of data provider.
At that time, CEOP QC system (visualization) would be helpful.
- Appropriate meta data should be provided with data.
(2) Data opening- Data are provided on-line, sometimes with DVD/CD.
- All the data eventually will be opened to the international research community.
- Turn around period for data release should be applied for experimental data.
(3) Data center- Data center should operate data server and web pages for data dissemination.
(4) Other issues- Assistance in data rescue work is also important as a part of data management
activity.
8. Links with international programs/projects
8.1. GEWEX
Unlike GAME, MAHASRI does not contain any characters related with GEWEX (Global
Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) in its name. However, since this program also targets
hydro-meteorological research and prediction in monsoon Asia, in particular over the land
where more than 60% of the world population is concentrated, it would be best to be affiliatedwith one of the CSEs in the GHP (GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel) under the
GEWEX/WCRP (World Climate Research Programme). Close connection should be kept withother GEWEX panels, GMPP (GEWEX Modeling and Prediction Panel) and GRP (GEWEXRadiation Panel) in close connection with CEOP.
8.2. CLIVAR
It is obvious that there is both a complementary nature and a mutual interdependence in theactivities of GAME and CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AMMP) in the monsoon
research (WCRP JSC-XXVI document 2005). But it is also noticed that monsoon studies in the
Asian monsoon region have not been well coordinated between GAME and CLIVAR. In thiscontext, the pan-WCRP monsoon workshop was held in Irvine in June 2005 to help inclarifying how best to move forward with the overall approach to a pan-WCRP modeling effort
in this area. The communication with oceanographers who are not explicitly involved in this
MAHASRI program will be promoted mainly through the CLIVAR-AAMP and coordinatedworkshops. Joint grand observation on Asian monsoon variability both over the land and theocean and related modeling activity will be a good chance for the collaboration of each
community.
8.3. CEOPThe Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP), which is an element of the WCRP
initiated by GEWEX, was proposed in 1997 as an initial step for establishing an integrated
observation system for the global water cycle. Its guiding goal is:"To understand and model the influence of continental hydroclimate processes on thepredictability of global atmospheric circulation and changes in water resources, with a34

particular focus on the heat source and sink regions that drive and modify the climate
system and anomalies."
CEOP, therefore, represents a unique opportunity to improve the scientific foundation neededto achieve overall water cycle documentation and prediction goals, based on coordination
among the WCRP/GEWEX Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs), the Committee on Earth
Observation Satellites (CEOS) members, including space agencies, and the numerical weather
prediction (NWP) centers affiliated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The two overall science objectives of the Water and Energy–Cycle Simulation andPrediction (WESP) and CEOP Inter-Monsoon System Studies (CIMS) that were articulated in
the CEOP Phase 1 Implementation Plan drove the requirements for CEOP and the Phase 1
datasets. Soon after the delivery of the EOP-1 in-situ dataset in early 2004, modeling centerand space agency participants in CEOP became aware that the observations at CEOP reference
sites could be used in studies to evaluate and validate land surface processes and other related
aspects of models and satellite sensor algorithms, respectively. Examples of this work havebecome evidence of the current value of the CEOP datasets and their potential value to thebroader research community.
As described in the GEOSS 10 Year Implementation Plan Reference Document;“A prototype data integration system is being demonstrated by the CEOP (CoordinatedEnhanced Observing Period). An overall plan for in-situ and satellite water cycle
observational systems is needed so that data can be readily exchanged, standards can be set,
and data quality can be monitored.”
CEOP is playing an important role in GEOSS as a prototype system for “Convergence ofObservation”, “Interoperability”, and “Data Management”.
CEOP is now preparing for its second phase (CEOP-II). MAHASRI will provide somereference sites in Asian monsoon region in CEOP-II. For scientific issues, MAHASRI will
focus on Asian monsoon phenomena, while CIMS activity will cover comparisons with othermonsoons in the world.
8.4. TMRP
The WMO Tropical Meteorology Research Programme is designed to promote andcoordinate research activities of WMO Members in high priority areas of tropical meteorology
in order to help reduce the loss of life and social disruption arising from severe weather.
Emphasis is on local weather systems such as tropical cyclones and monsoon related studies
where variability and prediction at the regional and seasonal scale are all important.
The main objectives are:(1) To improve understanding of the behavior and physical processes of tropical weather
systems by strengthening research activities.
(2) To develop, through improved knowledge of tropical phenomena, prediction methods andtechniques relating to the following areas: tropical cyclones, monsoons, tropical droughts
and semi-arid zone meteorology, rain-producing tropical systems, interaction between
tropical and mid- latitude weather systems, tropical limited-area modeling and operationaluse of numerical products for tropical forecasting.
(3) To transfer scientific knowledge of methodologies and their operational application toensure the full exploitation of scientific advances to meet the socio-economic needs oftropical countries35

As a monsoon research initiative, most of the objectives of MAHASRI are related to theEast Asian and South Asian monsoon subprograms of TMRP. In particular, the key issues on
monsoon variability and its prediction in various temporal and spatial scales are all key issuesof TMRP’s two Asian monsoon subprograms, and two of the four regional components(Tropics, East Asia) correspond directly to the high priority regions of TMRP monsoon studies.
8.5. THORPEX
THORPEX is a 10-year international global atmospheric research programme under theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) / World Weather Research Program (WWRP) toaccelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts,
established by the 14th WMO Congress in May 2003.
THORPEX research topics include: global and regional influences on the evolution andpredictability of weather systems; global observing system design and demonstration; targeting
and assimilation of observations; and societal, economic, and environmental benefits ofimproved forecasts. The success of THORPEX depends on advances in the knowledge ofatmospheric science, such as predictability of the atmosphere and large-scale influences orflow-regime dependency on extreme events, and on developments of the forecasting
technology, such as data assimilation techniques with advanced satellite data and ensemble
forecast techniques. These advances and developments will lead us to the establishment of the
Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS). GIFS is a new concept of the weather forecast
system under THORPEX to demonstrate the close interaction between observation and forecast
models.
Every year huge damages are caused due to heavy rainfalls and tropical cyclones in the
Asian monsoon region. Heavy rainfall events occurred in China in 2003, and landfall orapproach of tropical cyclones occurred in Korea in 2002 and 2003 and in Japan in 2004. Huge
damages were brought about by tropical cyclones in Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan almost
every year. THORPEX activities in Asia focus on the improvement of forecasts for thesehigh-impact weather events over Asia, which may bring tremendous benefit to the society
through better understanding of the Asian monsoon system.
8.6. CliC
The CliC (Climate and Cryoshere) is one of the WCRP projects which addresses the entire
cryosphere (i.e., snow cover, sea-, lake- and river- ice, glaciers, ice sheets, ice caps and ice
shelves, and frozen ground including permafrost) and its relation to climate. The principal goalof CliC is to assess and quantify the impacts that climate variability and change have on
components of the cryosphere, and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system.
An additional goal is to determine the stability of the global cryosphere. To support these goals,
CliC seeks to enhance and coordinate efforts to monitor the cryosphere, to study
climate-related processes involving the cryosphere, to model and understand the cryosphere'srole in the climate system, and to assess changes in the cryosphere as indicators of global
climate change. CliC was established by the WCRP in March 2000. In 2004, the ScientificCommittee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) became a co-sponsor of the project. CliC held akick-off meeting in April, 2005 in Beijing. For details of the project, refer to the Science andCoordination Plan (WCRP, 2001), and Report of the First Session of the CliC-SSG (WCRP,
2005) and website of the project (http://clic.npolar.no).

36

The CliC Project has the following four main CliC Project Areas (CPAs).
(1) CPA1: The terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions.
(2) CPA2: Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and their relation to sea level.
(3) CPA3: The marine cryosphere and its interactions with high latitude oceans andatmosphere(4) CPA4: Links between the cryosphere and global climate
The areas which are related to the Asian monsoon systems are CPA1 and CPA4. In CPA1,
there is an interest in the cryosphere conditions in the monsoon area region such as frozen
ground conditions on Tibetan Plateau, the south Asian high mountains, monsoon-fed glaciers,and high mountain snow cover in south Asia. The clarification of present condition, itsvariability, and those as an index of climate change is a research issue. Although these are theresults of monsoon climate, they will affect the river water supplies and surface heat/waterexchange processes influencing the condition of the monsoon system indirectly. In CPA4, one
interest is the large-scale snow cover and atmosphere interactions, which should affect the
behavior of the monsoon system. From the observational standpoint, the mountain observation
network in the high altitude area in south Asia for cryosphere studies will give important
information about climate, especially precipitation distribution and variations. These areregions and topics in which monsoon system studies and cryosphere studies can cooperate.
8.7. SPARCSPARC (Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate), one of the WCRP programs, isintending to detect stratospheric trends which indicate climate change or could affect climate,to understand stratospheric processes and their relation to climate, and to model stratosphericprocesses and trends and their effects on climate. The SPARC community has learned lessons
from the ozone hole that they need a synthetic view from dynamics, transport, chemistry, andmicrophysics to understand factors controlling the earth’s climate. As one of those issues, thestratosphere/troposphere exchange processes of atmospheric minor species have beenhighlighted. For example, water vapor in the lower stratosphere is a key for stratosphericchemistry, and in the upper troposphere is important to the radiation budget of the atmosphere,
though its concentration is very low there. The dryness in the stratosphere is regarded as theequatorial cold tropopause where the air enters the stratosphere from the troposphere, but at thesame time we need to know how it is moistened in the interface region around the tropopause.
One moistening process is thought to be due to the monsoon circulation that is one of the mostdominant tropospheric phenomena extending into the stratosphere, resulting in the effective
stratosphere/troposphere exchange. On the basis of their experience in the synthetic studies,
they are trying to understand the monsoon circulation in association with thestratosphere/troposphere exchange from the viewpoint of tracer transport and coupling between
the two regions. Such an approach would be very useful to understand another aspect of themonsoon circulation.
8.8. PUB
Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is a 10-years research program (2003-2012) initiatedby the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) for enhancing the prediction
ability in ungauged basins that focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty and its
reduction. A general hydrologic system contains a model that describes the key processes of37

interest, a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern criticalprocesses, and appropriate meteorological inputs that drive the basin response. PUB will
therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes, that attempt to make inferences aboutclimatic inputs, parameters, and model structures (Sivapalan et al., 2003).
For water resources management in the Asian monsoon regions, the outcomes of PUB are
crucial to improve the forecasting/prediction of floods, droughts, and water resources. The
regions cover different areas with various topographical, geological, and climatic conditions.
Thus the key scientific topics in the regions will include:(1) Development of transferable hydrologic watershed models (HWMs) and land-surface
models (LSMs) applicable across regions and scales, considering interactions between
natural variation and anthropogenic activities,(2) Development of transferable frequency estimation methods of hydrologic extremes forungauged basins, and(3) Development of down-scaling methods for transferring atmospheric model products andglobal hydrologic information to the local scale for watershed managements in ungauged
basins.
China, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, and Thailand have formed national PUB working groups
and begun their activities. The PUB community is open to any scientist and engineer who needhydrologic predictions in ungauged basins. Comparative studies of existing models anddevelopment of innovative models will be carried out under different hydro-climate regions in
the Asian monsoon for improving predictions in ungauged basins, which will play a crucialrole in the water resource management in the regions.
8.9 MAIRS-ESSP
MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study) is a new international research Programof ESSP (Earth System Science Partnership) that addresses the coupled system of human andnatural processes in the Asia monsoon region. Regional-scale studies of global change,
themselves at different scale, lend themselves to the undertaking of vulnerability analyses,
identification of hotspots of risk and identification and simulation of syndromes ofenvironmental degradation. Regional studies contribute substantially to the analyses of global
dynamics from regional patterns and, in addition to permitting an understanding of the cause
and effect systems analysis that directly address the synergies, interactions and non-linear
behavior of the earth system.
The objectives of MAIRS are:“To significantly advance understanding of the interactions between the human-naturalcomponents of the overall environment in the monsoon Asian region and implication of global
earth system, in order to support the strategies for sustainable development.”
The major challenges for MAIRS are:
“Is the Asian monsoon system resilient to the human transformation of the region’s
landscape, water resources, and air quality changes? Are societies in the region becoming
more or less vulnerable to potential changes in the Asian monsoon parameters such as
regional hydrology, land use, etc? What will be the consequences of regional changes for the
global earth system?”
MAIRS will initially focus on the impacts of environmental changes in four key

38

geographical zones, namely: 1) coastal zone 2) mountain zone 3) semi-arid zone 4) urban zone.
Within these zones, there will be studies related to the major societal issues of biodiversity loss,
water availability, air pollution and human health, energy and transport, and natural disastermanagement.
Collaboration with MAHASRI will include intensive atmospheric and land observations,modeling activities evaluating the human effect on Asian monsoon variations.
8.10. GWSPThe Global Water System Project (GWSP) is a newly established joint project of
DIVERSITAS, an international programme of biodiversity science, the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme(IHDP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). These four global change
programmes form the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). Over the past few decades,
environmental science has produced insights into the linkages, interconnections, andinterdependencies in the global water cycle. The various human and physical, biochemical, andbiological facets of the cycle make up the global water system. The global water system isbeing transformed by major syndromes including climate change, erosion, pollution, andsalinization. We know more about the physical aspects of the global water system and muchless about the nutrient flows, biodiversity loss, and human dimensions.
The Global Water System Project seeks to answer the fundamental and multi-faceted
question: How are humans changing the global water cycle, the associated biogeochemical
cycles, and the biological components of the global water system and what are the social
feedbacks arising from these changes? Three major research themes follow these overarchingquestions:(1) What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the global water
system and what are the key mechanisms by which they are induced?
(2) What are the main linkages and feedbacks within the earth system arising from changes in
the global water system?
(3) How resilient and adaptable is the global water system to change, and what are sustainable
water management strategies?
The agenda for the GWSP will incorporate impact studies on water governance, land coverchange, major diversions, climate change, and nutrient and sediment flows. Linkages atdifferent scales and the legacy of past human impacts will also be included. For example,
researchers will undertake a comprehensive study to compare the requirements of humansociety with that of aquatic ecosystems, as well as studying the ecosystem services provided by
freshwater. The GWSP will undertake key cross-cutting activities such as generating an
information database on the global water system, facilitating a discourse on water between thesocial and natural sciences, and developing models to define scenarios for the global water
system.

39

9. Time schedule
Major research phases:
September, 2005-October, 2006: Planning and preparation phase
October, 2006-December, 2010: Research phase I
2006-07: Build-up new observation systems
2008-09: Intensive observation year both summer and winter monsoon in conjunction with
Asian Monsoon Year (AMY)
January, 2011-December, 2013: Research phase II
January, 2014-December, 2015: Concluding phase
Short-time schedule:
August 28, 2005: The 1st International Workshop for the Post-GAME Planning, Tokyo,
Japan
Late September, 2005: First proposal in the GHP Science Panel, Melbourne, Australia
November 1, 2005: The Second International Workshop for the Post-GAME Planning,
Tokyo, Japan
November 2-4, 2005: The 1st Asian Water Cycle Symposium, Tokyo, Japan
November 4-6, 2005: Workshop on Hydroinformatics and Atmospheric Sciences,
Kanchanabri, Thailand
Early December, 2005: Submit MAHASRI Science Plan draft to the GEWEX SSG
members
Mid-January, 2006: Proposal in the GEWEX-SSG, Dakar, Senegal
April, 2006: Meeting in the Symposium on Asian Winter Monsoon, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia
August 18-20, 2006: The 1st Vietnam-Japan Joint Workshop on Asian monsoon, Halong,
Vietnam
October 9-13, 2006: Pan-GEWEX meeting, Frascati, Italy. Submit revised version of the
MAHASRI Science Plan
October 18, 2006: The 3rd Asia Pacific Association of Hydrology and Water Resources(APHW) Meeting at Bangkok, Thailand. Special session on “GEOSS and
MAHASRI” is organized.
October 19-20, 2006: The 1-st MAHASRI International Science Steering Committee
Meeting, Bangkok, Thailand.
January 8, 2006: The 1-st AMY Workshop, Tokyo or Yokohama, Japan
January 9-10, 2006: The 2nd Asian Water Cycle Symposium, Tokyo, Japan
January 11-12, 2006: GEOSS Symposium on Integrated Observation for Sustainable
Development in the Asia-Pacific Region, Tokyo, Japan
July 30-August 4, 2007: The 4th Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) meeting at
Bangkok, Thailand. Special session on “GEOSS and MAHASRI” will beorganized.

40

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Appendix-1
Acronyms
AAMP
ABC
ABL
AGCM
AMY
AO
ARMEX
ASM
AVHRR
AWS
BC
BOBMEX
BWBD
CCN
CEOP
CEOS
CERES
CEReS
CIMS
CliC
CLIVAR
CMA
COPES
CPA
CReSS
CRIEPI
CRM
CSEs
CSRM
CTCZ
EC
ECMWF
ENSO
EOS
ERA-15/40
ESSP
GAME
GAME-AAN
GAME-HUBEXGAME-TGCM
GEOSS

Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel
Atmospheric Brown Clouds
Atmospheric boundary layer
Atmospheric GCM
Asian Monsoon Year
Arctic Oscillation
Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment
Asian summer monsoon
Advanced Very High Radiometer
Automatic weather station
Black carbon
Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment
Bangladesh Water Development Board
Cloud condensation nuclei
Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period
Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing
CEOP Inter-Monsoon System Studies
Climate and Cryosphere
Climate Variability and Predictability
China Meteorological Agency
Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System
CliC Project Area
Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Cloud resolving modelContinental Scale Experiments in GEWEXCloud-system-resolving modelContinental Tropical Convergence Zone
Elemental carbon
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
El Nino/Southern Oscillation
Earth Observation System
ECMWF 15/40 Year Reanalysis
Earth System Science Partnership
GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment
GAME-Asian Automatic Weather Station Network
GAME-Huaihe River Basin Experiment
GAME-Tropics
General circulation model
Global Earth Observation System of Systems

50

GEWEX
GHP
GIFS
GIS
GMPP
GMS
GOLF
GPCP
GRP
GWSP
HWM
HyARC
IAEA
IAHS
ICRP
IGBP
IHDP
IHP
IMC
IN
INDOEX
IOP
IPY
ISO
IWM
JAMSTEC/IORGC
JEPPJMA
JRA-25KMA
LSM
MADRAS
MAHASRI
MAIRS
MCSs
MJO
NAO
NASA
NCEP
NOAA

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel
Global Interactive Forecast System
Geographic Information System
GEWEX Modeling and Prediction Panel
Geostationary meteorological satellite
Glacier lake outburst flood
Global Precipitation Climatology Project
GEWEX Radiation Panel
Global Water System ProjectHydrologic watershed model
Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Indian Climate Research ProgrammeInternational Geosphere-Biosphere ProgrammeInternational Human Dimensions Programme on global
environmental changeInternational Hydrological Programme
Indonesian maritime continent
Ice nuclei
Indian Ocean Experiment
Intensive observation period
International Pole Year
Intraseasonal oscillation
Institute of Water Management
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology/
Institute of Observational Research for Global Change
Japan EOS Promotion Program
Japan Meteorological Agency
Japanese 25-year Re-analysis Project
Korean Meteorological Agency
Land-surface model
Microwave Analysis and Detection of Rain and Atmospheric
Structures
Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research andPrediction Initiative
Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study
Mesoscale convective systems
Madden-Julian Oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

51

NSF
NWP
PBL
PDO
PUB
QC
RAIMEPRAISE
RCM
SAPHIRSCAR
ScaRaBSCSMEX
SPARC
SSG
SST
START
THORPEX
TIPEX
TMRP
TRMM
TRMM-PR
UN
UNEP
WCRP
WESP
WMO
WMONEXWWRP
3D-VAR
4D-VAR

National Science Foundation
Numerical weather prediction
Planetary boundary layer
Pacific decadal oscillation
Predictions in Ungauged Basins
Quality Control
Regional Atmospheric Inter-Model Evaluation Project
Rangelands Atmosphere-Hydrosphere-Biosphere Interaction Study
Experiment in Northeastern Asia
Regional Climate ModelSounder for Atmospheric Profiling of Humidity in the Intertropics byRadiometry
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Scanner for Radiation Budget
South China Sea Monsoon Experiment
Stratosphere Processes And their Role in Climate
Science Steering GroupSea surface temperature
Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training
The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment
Tibetan Plateau Experiment
Tropical Meteorology Research Programme
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
TRMM-Precipitation Radar
United Nations
United Nations Environment Programme
World Climate Research Programme
Water and Energy-Cycle Simulation and Prediction
World Meteorological Organization
Winter Monsoon Experiment
World Weather Research Program
3-dimensional variational data assimilation
4-dimensional variational data assimilation

52

Appendix -2
International Drafting Committee Members List
Dolgorsuren Azzaya，Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia
Bhat, G.S., Indian Institute of Science, India
Chan, Johnny C. L., City University of Hong Kong, China
Chen, Tsing-Chang, Iowa State University, USA
Ding, Yihui, China Meteorological Administration, China
Fu, Conbin, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China
Hansa Vathananukij, Kasetsart University, Thailand
Nazrul Islam, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh
Jun Matsumoto, Tokyo Metropolitan University/JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Taikan Oki, The University of Tokyo/JAMSTEC-FRCGC, Japan
Tetsuo Nakazawa, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Nguyen Thi Tan Thanh, Hydrometeorological Service, Vietnam
Takehiko Satomura, Kyoto University, Japan
Madan L. Shrestha, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal
Subramaniam Moten, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Malaysia
Thada Sukhapunnaphan, Royal Irrigation Department, Thailand
Theeranun Raktabutr, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand
Tien Sribimawati, BPPT, Indonesia
Wu, Guoxiong, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China
Shingo Yamada, Japan Meteorological Agency
Manabu Yamanaka, JAMSTEC-IORGC/ Kobe University, Japan
Yang, Dawen，Tsinghua University, China
Authors List
Ailikun, Borjiginte, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China
Jun Asanuma, University of Tsukuba, Japan
Dolgorsuren Azzaya，Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia
Bhat, G.S., Indian Institute of Science, India
Chang, Chih-Pei., Naval Postgraduate School, USA
Chen, Tsing-Chang, Iowa State University, USA
Ding, Yihui, China Meteorological Administration, China
Taiichi Hayashi, Kyoto University, Japan
Atsushi Higuchi, Chiba University, Japan
Hirohiko Ishikawa, Kyoto University, Japan
Nazrul Islam, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh
Shinjiro Kanae, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature/University of Tokyo, Japan
Ryuichi Kawamura, Toyama University, Japan
Akio Kitoh, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Makoto Koike, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Yutaka Kondo, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Naoyuki Kurita, JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Yukio Masumoto, The University of Tokyo/JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan53

Jun Matsumoto, Tokyo Metropolitan University/JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Tetsuo Nakazawa, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Tetsuo Ohata, JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Takehiko Satomura, Kyoto University/JAMSTEC-FRCGC, Japan
Taro Shinoda, Nagoya University, Japan
Masato Shiotani, Kyoto University, Japan
Yasuto Tachikawa, Kyoto University, Japan
Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Kenji Tanaka, Kyoto University, Japan
Makoto Taniguchi, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan
Tomohiko Tomita, Kumamoto University, Japan
Hitoshi Toritani, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Japan
Tien Sribimawati, BPPT, Indonesia
Subramaniam Moten, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Malaysia
Hiroaki Ueda, University of Tsukuba, Japan
Kennichi Ueno, University of Tsukuba, Japan
Hiroshi Uyeda, Nagoya University/JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Shingo Yamada, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
Manabu Yamanaka, Kobe University/JAMSTEC-IORGC, Japan
Yang, Dawen，Tsinghua University, China
Tetsuzo Yasunari, Nagoya University/JAMSTEC-FRCGC, Japan
Masanori Yoshizaki, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Editing support
Adam Clark, Iowa State University, USA
Dave Flory, Iowa State University, USA
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Iowa State University, USA
Satoru Yokoi, The University of Tokyo, Japan

54