AOGS 2011 Taipei, ST17
C ll b ti researches
Collaborative
h andd operationsti
off space weather
th fforecastingti iin Asia‐Oceania
Ai Oi regioni

Development of WASAVIES:
Warning System of Aviation Exposure to SEP

Ryuho
yKataoka ((1),) Seijij Yashiro (2),( )Tatsuhiko Sato (3), Hiroshi Yasuda (4),
Takao Kuwabara (5),(5) Daikou Shiota (6)1: Tokyoy Tech, 2: Catholic Universityy of America, 3: Japanp Atomic Energy
gy Agency,g y
4: National Institute of Radiological Sciences, 5: University of Delaware, 6: RIKEN

Kataoka et al., 2011, Space Weather“Predicting radiation dose on aircraftfrom solar energetic particles
particles”
Energeticdoi:10.1029/2011SW000699
protonπNπNπPγPμeπνμNνEffective dose rate at airplane altitude

Courtesy of Prof. Erwin O. Flückiger and Prof. Rolf Bütikofer

As space weather specialists, we have responsibility to clarify the situation.

Ultimate space weather forecast
1. From Sun to Earth
2. Both MHD and particles
3. Real‐time observations

We are developing physics‐
based SEP forecast model.
Scientific problems include
both flare particle release andshock evolution in highly non‐uniform medium.

Maximum energy of DSA• Emax
E= 3/20 * V * Z * e * B * R / ξ– ξ: Bohm factor, typically ξ~10– R~VV*tt• Shock parameters in corona– V = 2000 [km/s]– B = 0.1 [G] = 10‐5 [T]– t = 600 [s]• EmaxE= 3.6/ξ
3 6/ξ [GeV][G V]– GeV protons are about the limit of DSA.

Kuwabara et al., 2006, Space Weather

1. GLE Alarm = Onset of WASAVIES
Solar proton event starts
at 6:55

Alert time fromNeutron Monitor
at 6:50

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 27
Issue Time: 2005 Jan 20 0702 UTC

Alert timefrom SEC/NOAA
at 7:02

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2005 Jan 20 0701 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 ‐ Moderate
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/archive.html

Yashiro, 2011, JpGU meeting

2. Automated CME detection = Input
p of WASAVIESCACTusSpeed: 469 km/s
Width: 360 deg

SEEDS
Speed: 507 km/s
Width: 68 deg

WASAVIES CME Module
Speed: 663 km/s
Width: 290 deg

There is one‐to‐one correspondence between EUV waves and CMEs (Yashiro, this meeting):
The input parameters may be obtained within 30 min or less by utilizing EUV waves .

Kataoka et al., 2009, JGR

CME propagation model

CME/flare parameters drive the CME simulation for time‐varying magnetic field tracing.

Kataoka and Miyoshi, 2008, JpGU (http://hbksw1.stelab.nagoya‐u.ac.jp)

Real time radiation belt forecast since 2008
Real‐time

K t k ett al.l 2009 BGSW model
Kataokad lMiyoshi et al. 2004 RBE modelToward real‐time SEP forecast2) SEP modelField‐line tracing1) RBE model

Shock parameters： Ma, , θbn

MHD parameters: V, N, B time series

Now implementing time‐dependent DSA at shocks. (Underdevelopment #1)

Corona shock parameters atconnecting with the observer point

Potential field model +Spherical shock at constant speed

Simplification needed for speed up

Shiota et al., 2010, ApJ

Shiota, 2011, JpGU

Global MHD solar wind simulation• HLLD Riemann solver– Miyoshi & Kusano (2005)

Underdevelopment #2• Yin‐Yang grid– Kageyama & Sato (2004)• Rotating inner boundary (+real‐time CME)
– Kataoka et al. (2009)• Wang‐Sheeley‐ArgeWSh l Amodeld l– Arge & Pizzo (2000)http://aurora3d.jp/

Sato et al., 2006 & 2008, Radiat. Res. (http://phits.jaea.go.jp/expacs/)

GCR spectrum

Local Interstellar (LIS) Spectrum

Particle acceleration ofsupernova etc.

C  a1 Function of FR(Rigidity) and:β(velocity)
R a2

Heliosphere
Solar wind modulation

Force Field Potential
R E  R E  s Z A

MagnetospherehGeomagnetic field cutoff etc.

Atmosphere
Air shower interaction with the atmosphere

2Function of index (s)(s), determinedfrom neutron monitor data

Vertical Cut‐off
Cut off Rigidity
Function of index (rc)

Input

Monte‐Carlo Code: PHITS
GCR spectra in each altitude

EXPACS: Excel‐based Program for Calculating Atmospheric Cosmic‐Ray Spectrum
C l l ti d
Calculatingdose tot aircrew
ianywhere
hiin ththe world
ld duringd i solarl quiet
i t timeti

Yasuda et al., 2011, Radiat. Prot. Dosim. (http://www.nirs.go.jp/research/jiscard/)

EXPACS is implemented and operated as the JISCARD for themanagement of cosmic radiation exposure for aircraft crew in Japan.

Total Dose in 2007

Average (mSv)

Maximum (mSv)

Pilot

1.68

3.79

CA

2.15

4.24

Summary
We are developing physics‐based SEP forecast model.
• Development of WASAVIES– Onset: GLE Alarm• Kuwabara et al. (2006)– Inputs: CME/flare parameters• Yashiro’s new technique– Outputs:
O
EXPACS/JISCARD +• Sato et al. (2006; 2008); Yasuda et al. (2011); http://phits.jaea.go.jp/expacs/– Models: CME evolution +• Kataoka
Kk et al.l (2009);(2009) ShiotaShiet al.l (2010)(2010); http://aurora3d.jp
h //
3d j

• Underdevelopment/Important research topics– Time‐dependent DSA– Real‐time CME launch– Flare p
particle release• Kataoka et al. (2011, Space Weather)ryuho@geo.titech.ac.jp