The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette
In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies

2010 年秋から筆者の活動の中心を東京に移した。ケンブリッジの研究者との関係を維持しつつも、米中両国、東南アジア、そして欧州の研究者との関係を強化し、グローバルな視点から読者諸兄姉と共に日本の将来を考えてみたい。従ってタイトルも Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette に変更する。

『東京=ケンブリッジ・ガゼット: グローバル戦略編』

第 49 号 (2013 年 5 月)

小誌は大量の資料を網羅的かつ詳細に報告するものではない—筆者が接した情報や文献を①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障の分野に関し整理したものである。紙面や時間の制約に加えて筆者の限られた能力という問題は有るが、小誌が少しでも役立つことを心から願っている。

キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹 栗原 潤
彼れを知りて己れを知れば、百戦して 殆 (あや)うからず。
彼れを知らずして己れを知れば、一勝一負す。
彼れを知らず己れを知らざれば、戦う毎に必ず殆うし。
(孫子)

Know the enemy and know yourself; In a hundred battles you will never be in peril.
When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself; Your chances of winning or losing are equal.
If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself; You are certain in every battle to be in peril. (Sunzi/Sun Tzu)

今月号 «目次»

1. Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 49 号
2. 情報概観—①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障
3. 編集後記
1. Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 49 号
小誌 3 月号(No. 47)で“Gresham’s Law”に触れたが、3 月の英国出張では City の Gresham Street に在る友人のオフィスで世界経済について語り合った。話題は日本にも及び、友人達は“Abenomics”に関し、高橋是清による“Takahashi-nomics”になぞらえつつ多くの質問をしてきた。これに対し筆者は、たどたどしく頭の中のかすかな記憶を頼りに—中村隆英先生のご著書(『戦前期日本経済成長の分析』や『明治大正期の経済』等)を中心に—答えたが、自国の経済史に関する知識不足に深く恥じ入った次第である。ただ確かなことは当時の Takahashi-nomics によっても設備投資の盛り上がりや対外収支の改善には課題を残した点だ。こうした理由から、日本の成長戦略の成否が重要であるということは誰もが認めるところであろう。
これに関してビジネス・スクール INSEAD の友人が、同校のマンフレッド・ケッツ=ド=ブリース教授の言葉を引用し警告してきた—「ジュン、Gresham’s Law of Creativity を知っているだろ。Conformists drive out
creative people. 今は新しい考えをはぐくむ人を大切にし、海外の情報を積極的に吸収する必要があるが、これは conformist society の日本にとって難しい課題だ」、と。筆者の反論は次の通りだ—「そうかも知れない。が、シュンペーター先生は“たとえ伝統的・慣習的思考が不適切になったとしても、また優れた新しい思考が別段問題を起さないとしても、我々は、古臭く慣れた思考にいつまでも流されてゆく”と書かれた。
だから問題なのは国籍ではなく、結局は個々人の意志と能力さ」、と。我々は如何に困難であっても新しい考えを速やかに制度、組織、更には製品・サービスに具現化してゆかねばならない。
さて、ロンドンの St. James Square に在る Naval and Military Club では、英国海軍の退役将校である知人とグローバル時代の日英関係を語り合った。嬉しいことに、2 人ともボストン生まれでオックスフォード大学の故アーサー・マーダー教授のご著書(Old Friends, New Enemies: The Royal Navy and the ImperialJapanese Navy, Strategic Illusions, 1936-1941, Oxford University Press, 1981)を愛読していたことを知った。そして今、21 世紀における日英間の New Partnership を考えている。
2. 情報概観

紙面の制約上、原則、参考になると筆者が判断した最新情報のみを掲載し解説や関連資料は一切省略。

マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Books, Papers, and Articles
Acemoglu, Daron and James A. Robinson, 2013, “Economics versus Politics: Pitfalls of Policy Advice,” NBER Working Paper No. 18921, April.
Aizenman, Joshua, Brian Pinto and Vladyslav Sushko, 2013, “Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector in the Open Economy: Up bythe Stairs, Down by the Parachute,” Working Paper No. 411, Basel: Bank for International Settlements (BIS), April.
Bhagwati, Jagdish and Arvind Panagariya, 2013, Why Growth Matters: How Economic Growth in India Reduced Poverty and the Lessons for
Other Developing Countries, New York: PublicAffairs, April.
Holz, Carsten A. and Aaron Mehrotra, 2013, “Wage and Price Dynamics in a Large Emerging Economy: The Case of China,” Working Paper No.
409, Basel: Bank for International Settlements (BIS), April.
Ma, Guonan (馬國南) and Robert N. McCauley, 2013, “Is China or India More Financially Open?” Working Paper No. 410, Basel: Bank forInternational Settlements (BIS), April.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2013, Economic Survey: China 2013, Paris, OECD, March.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2013, Economic Survey: Japan 2013, Paris, OECD, April.

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The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 49 (May 2013)
正しい行動は知識より優れている。しかし正しい事を行うためには、 Right action is better than knowledge; but in order to do what is right, we must know what is right.
我々は何が正しいかを知らなければならない。
(カール大帝) [Quamvis enim melius sit benefacere quam nosse, prius tamen est nosse quam facere.] (Charlemagne/Charles the Great)マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 3: (Hong Kong) Chatham House, Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET):“An Evolving International Monetary System: Risks to Global Monetary and Financial Stability”; Speakers: Marshall Auerback (Director ofInstitutional Partnerships, INET), Thomas A. Bernes (Distinguished Fellow, Executive Director (2009-12), CIGI), D'Maris Coffman(Research Fellow; Director, Centre for Financial History, Univ. of Cambridge), Haihong Gao (高海紅) (Director, Research Centre forInternational Finance, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)), Paul Jenkins(Distinguished Fellow, CIGI; Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada (2003-10)), Paola Subacchi (Research Director, InternationalEconomics, Chatham House), Yu Yongding (余永定) (Member of Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republicof China; Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, People's Bank of China (2004-06)).
April 20: (Washington, D.C.) Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE): “Toward a Stronger Eurozone: Fostering Growth andCompleting the Architecture of EMU”: Speaker: Adam S. Posen (Director, PIIE).
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Books, Papers, and Articles
Baylis, Kathy et al., 2013, “Leakage, Welfare, and Cost-Effectiveness of Carbon Policy,” NBER Working Paper No. 18898, March.
Elliott, Joshua and Don Fullerton, 2013, “Can a Unilateral Carbon Tax Reduce Emissions Elsewhere?” NBER Working Paper No. 18897, March.
Heal, Geoffrey and Antony Millner, 2013, “Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics,” NBER Working Paper No. 18929, March.
Muehlenbachs, Lucija Anna et al., 2013, “Shale Gas Development and Property Values: Differences across Drinking Water Sources,” Discussion
Paper 12-40-REV, Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future (RFF), March.
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 19: (London) Chatham House: “Carbon Trading: Global Development and Impacts on Fossil Fuels”: Speaker: Justin Dargin (Energy andMiddle East Scholar, Univ. of Oxford).
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Books, Papers, and Articles
Gompert, David C., 2013, Sea Power and American Interests in the Western Pacific, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, April.
Gray, Colin S., 2013, “Making Strategic Sense of Cyber Power: Why the Sky Is Not Falling,” Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), U.S.
Army War College, April.
Gresser, Edward and Daniel Twining, 2013, “Whose Pacific Century? The 113th Congress and Asia,” NBR Analysis No. 98, Seattle, WA: National
Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), April.
Harrison, Mark and Debin Ma (马德斌), 2013, “Soaring Dragon, Stumbling Bear: China's Rise in a Comparative Context,” The CAGE–Chatham
House Series, No. 6, London: Chatham House, March.
Hou, Jinghuai/Hóu Jīnghuái (侯京淮), 2013, “Diàoyú Dǎo Hǎiyù Guò Dànián—Zhōngguó Hǎijiàn Biānduì Chūnjié Qījiān Xúnháng Diàoyú DǎoJìshí [The Spring Festival in the Diaoyu Island—A Documentary of the Chinese Maritime Supervision Formation Cruising in the Diaoyu
Island/钓鱼岛海域过大年—中国海监编队春节期间巡航钓鱼岛纪实],” Dangdai Haijun/Dāngdài Hǎijūn [Modern Navy/«当代海军»],
No. 235 (April), pp. 69-71.
Latham, Kevin and Bin Wu (武斌), 2013, “Chinese Immigration into the EU: New Trends, Dynamics and Implications,” ECRAN (Europe China
Research and Advice Network) Paper, London: ECRAN, March.
Lee, Kuan Yew, 2013, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World—Interviews and Selections byGraham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill with Ali Wyne, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, February.
Lostumbo, Michael J. et al., 2013, Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits, Santa
Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, April.
Summers, Tim, 2013, “China’s New Leadership: Approaches to International Affairs,” Briefing Paper ASP BP 2013/01, London: Chatham House,April.
Till, Geoffrey, 2013, Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century, Third edition, London: Routledge, February.
Watson, Cynthia, 2013, “The Rise of Latin America: China’s Use of the Military Instrument in Latin America: Not Yet the Biggest Stick,” Journalof International Affairs, Vol. 66, No. 2 (Spring/Summer), pp. 101-114.
Zha, Changsong/Zhā Chángsōng (查长松) and Zhang Liqiang/Zhāng Lìqiáng (张立強), 2013, “Měijūn Zhànlüè Jìnrù YàTài Zhǔdǎo Shídài [TheUS Strategy Enters into the Asia-Pacific Leading Age/美军战略进入亜太主导时代],” Dangdai Haijun/Dāngdài Hǎijūn [Modern Navy/«当代海军»], No. 235 (April), pp. 60-63.
Zhatuliweierjie, Youli/Zhātúlǐwéiěrjié, Yóulǐ (扎图里维尔杰, 尤里) and Xieergai Xiemiaonuofu/Xièěrgài Xièmiáonuòfū (谢尔盖・谢苗诺夫),2013, “Wèilái Chōngtū: Wǎngluò Zhōngxīnzhàn Wēixié Bījìn [Future Conflict: The Threat of Cyberwarfare Is Approaching/未来冲突: 网络中心战威胁逼近],” Dangdai Haijun/Dāngdài Hǎijūn [Modern Navy/«当代海军»], No. 235 (April), pp. 12-19.
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 4: (Washington, D.C.) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC): Public Hearing: “China's Maritime Disputes in the
East and South China Seas”; “Panel I: China’s Strategic Thinking and Regional Security”: Witnesses: Michael McDevitt (Rear Admiral, Ret.,
Senior Fellow, Strategic Studies, CNA), Michael Swaine (Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP)); “Panel II:
Domestic Drivers, Policy, and Law”: Witnesses: Peter Dutton (Prof. and Director, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College(USNWC)), Jessica Chen Weiss (Asst. Prof., Yale Univ.); “Panel III: Resources and Economic Drivers”; Witnesses: Steven Lewis (Prof.,Rice Univ.), Lloyd Thrall (Project Associate, RAND Corporation).
April 23: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “China-Taiwan-United States Relations”; Introduction: Richard C. Bush III (Director, Centerfor Northeast Asian Policy Studies (CNAPS); Christopher Johnson (Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategicand International Studies (CSIS); Panel 1: Domestic Politics and Perspectives; Moderator: Christopher Johnson (CSIS); Thomas E. Mann(Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings), Emerson Niou (Prof., Duke Univ.), Yun Sun (孙云) (Visiting Fellow, Global Economy andDevelopment, Brookings); Panel 2: Cross-Strait Political and Security Issues; Moderator: Bonnie Glaser (Senior Adviser for Asia, FreemanChair in China Studies and Senior Associate, Pacific Forum, CSIS); Richard C. Bush III (Brookings); Zhao Quansheng (赵全胜) (Prof. andJun Kurihara; 栗原 潤

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The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 49 (May 2013)
自分の美徳より欠点に思いを巡らす方が、人間個人にとって有用であるのと同様に、 Just as it does the human individual more good to reflect upon his failings than upon his virtues, so,
国家という社会もまた、成功よりも失敗からより多くの学ぶべきものを持っている too, I think the national society has more to learn from its failures than from its successes. Theと私は思う。失敗についての反省から謙虚さが生れる—そして謙虚さこそ、米国が contemplation of the failures induces humility—and that is something we Americans could well use
より多く役立てることの出来るものなのである。過去の成功について考えることは more of. The contemplation of the successes leads only too easily to the pride that goes before a fall.
落とし穴に陥る自惚れをいとも簡単に招いてしまう。
(ジョージ・ケナン)(George F. Kennan)

Director, Center for Asian Studies, American Univ.), Wang Kao-cheng (王高成) (Prof., Graduate Institute of International Affairs andStrategic Studies, Tamkang Univ.); Lunch Address: An Update on U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Raymond Burghardt (Chairman of the Board,
American Institute in Taiwan); Panel 3: Implications for the United States and Cross-Strait Relations; Moderator: Kevin Nealer (Principal,Scowcroft Group); Chou Chih-wei (周志偉) (Asst. Prof., Tamkang Univ.), Matthew Goodman (Chair in Political Economy, CSIS).
April 23: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “North Korea through Chinese Eyes”; Introduction: Meng Bo (孟波) (Associate Director,Brookings-Tsinghua Center); Keynote Speech: Jonathan D. Pollack (Director, John L. Thornton China Center); Commentary: Wang Dong(王栋) (Prof., Peking Univ.).
April 25: (Washington, D.C.) U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs: Public Hearing:“Rebalance to Asia II: Security and Defense: Cooperation and Challenges”; Witnesses: Joseph Y. Yun (Acting Asst. Secy for East Asian andPacific Affairs, Dept. of State), David F. Helvey (Deputy Asst. Secry of Defense for East Asia, Dept. of Defense (DoD)), Janine Davidson(Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security (CNAS)), Michael J. Green (Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)).
April 30: (London) Chatham House: “Russia's New Foreign Policy Concept”; Speakers: Alexander Lukin (Александр Лукин) (Vice Rector for
Research and International Affairs, Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Federation/Дипломатическая академия Министерстваиностранных дел Российской Федерации), Ivan Safranchuk (Иван Сафранчук) (Deputy Director, Institute of Contemporary International
Studies, Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Federation), Tatiana Zakaurtseva (Татьяна Закаурцева) (First Vice-Rector, Institute ofContemporary International Studies, Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Federation).
その他—Information in Other Fields
Autor, David H. et al., 2013, “Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets,” NBER Working Paper No. 18938, April.
Brandt, Loren et al., 2013, “From Divergence to Convergence: Re-evaluating the History behind China’s Economic Boom,” Working Paper No.
175/13, London: Department of Economic History, London School of Economics (LSE), March.
Cai, Hongbin (蔡洪滨) et al., 2013, “More Trusting, Less Trust? An Investigation of Early E-Commerce in China,” NBER Working Paper No.
18961, April.
Clemente, Dave, 2013, “Cyber Security and Global Interdependence: What Is Critical?” London: Chatham House, February.
Costinot, Arnaud and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013, “Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization,” NBER
Working Paper No. 18896, March.
Fons-Rosen, Christian et al., 2013, “Quantifying Productivity Gains from Foreign Investment,” NBER Working Paper No. 18920, March.
Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Martin Vieiro, 2013, “Corporate Taxation and US MNCs: Ensuring a Competitive Economy,” Policy Brief 13-9,
Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), April.
Kawai, Masahiro (河合正弘) and Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2013, Patterns of Free Trade Areas in Asia, Policy Studies, No. 65, Honolulu, HI:
East-West Center, February.
Klautzer, Lisa, 2013, “Can Economic Openness Inspire Better Corporate Governance? An Exploration of the Link between Openness andCorporate Governance based on the Asian Experience,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, April.
Mutschler, Max, 2013, „Risiken für die Weltraumnutzung: Herausforderungen und Chancen für die transatlantische Kooperation“, SWP-Studien
2013/S 06, Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), March.
Nunn, Nathan and Daniel Trefler, 2013, “Domestic Institutions as a Source of Comparative Advantage,” NBER Working Paper No. 18851,
February.
Sunstein, Cass R., 2013, Simpler: The Future of Government, New York: Simon & Schuster, April.
Event: April 22: (Rome) Link Campus University: “Geostrategy in Cyber Space: A Comparative Analysis of National Cyber Security Strategies”;
Opening remarks: Vincenzo Scotti (President, Link Campus Univ. of Rome); Luigi Sergio Germani (Link Campus Univ., Director, the Gino
Germani Research Center and Center for Strategic Research on Eurasia); Andrea Rigoni (Director-General, Global Cyber-Security Center(GCSEC)); Speakers: Melissa Hathaway (fomer Acting Senior Director for Cyberspace at the US National Security Council), François Gèrè(Director, Institut Français d’Analyse Stratègique, Paris), Luigi Sergio Germani (Lecturer at Link Campus Univ., Director, Gino GermaniResearch Center), Judy Baker (former Head, UK Government’s Critical Infrastructure Cooperation Department), Andrea Rigoni (GeneralDirector, Global Cyber Security Center), John Stewart (Chief Security Officer, CISCO Systems), Matthew Holt (President, Intellium Ltd.),
Antonio Colella (Italian Army General Staff); Conclusions: Vincenzo Camporini (Vice-President, Istituto Affari Internazionali).

3. 編集後記
ボストン・マラソンでの悲劇には誰もが心を痛める。事件現場の Boylston や Mt. Auburn が映し出された時、筆者にとって馴染み深い場所であるだけに一層胸が痛んだ。筆者が初めてワシントン D.C.を訪れた
1984 年、ホワイトハウスの前の道路(Pennsylvania Avenue)は車が自由に通行出来たのだ。が、度重なる悲劇のために、今では制限されるようになっている。もはや世界の人々は安心して街中を歩くことが出来なくなったのか?—筆者はそうとは考えたくない。たとえ微力であっても、「慎重に、しかも楽観的に(cautiouslyand optimistically)」、世界の友人達と共に平和と繁栄を少しずつ再構築してゆきたいと考えている。 以上(編集責任者) 栗原 潤
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹

Jun KURIHARA
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies〒100-6511 東京都千代田区丸の内 1-5-1 新丸の内ビルディング 11 階 Tel: +81-(0)3-6213-0550 (代)Kurihara.Jun@gmail.com
過去の Cambridge Gazette はネット上で見ることが出来、ダウンロードも出来ます。ネット上でキヤノングローバル戦略研究所のウェブサイトに行き、そこで栗原のコラム・論文の欄をクリックして頂ければ、バックナンバー全てが見れます。

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Jun Kurihara; 栗原潤