Required Report: Required - Public Distribution

Date: April 03, 2024
Report Number:

JA2024-0017

Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Country: Japan
Post: Tokyo
Report Category: Oilseeds and Products

Prepared By:

Daisuke Sasatani

Approved By: Craig Elliott
Report Highlights:
In relation to persistent rising food prices, Japan has seen a decline in overall vegetable oil consumption.
Due to the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a
reduction in soybean imports and crush, while seeing an increase in rapeseed imports and crush for both
MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25. Consequently, Japan is expected to decrease domestic soybean meal
production, leading to an increase in soybean meal imports. The elevated price of North American
identity-preserved, food-grade soybeans coupled with the Japanese yen depreciation has weakened theirprice competitiveness versus domestically produced ones. This pricing shift is causing Japanese farmers
to consider planting more soybeans.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILYSTATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICYContents
Oilseeds ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Production ............................................................................................................................................................ 4
Consumption ........................................................................................................................................................ 6
Trade ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Stocks .................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Meals ....................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Production .......................................................................................................................................................... 14
Consumption ...................................................................................................................................................... 17
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Stocks .................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Oils........................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Overall Vegetable Oil Market ........................................................................................................................... 23
Production .......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Consumption ...................................................................................................................................................... 25
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Stocks .................................................................................................................................................................. 292

Oilseeds
Commodities:
Oilseeds, Soybean
Oilseeds, Rapeseed
Oilseeds, Cottonseed
Production, Supply, and Distribution of Soybean (Oilseed)
Oilseed, Soybean

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Market Year Begins
Japan

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Area Harvested (1000 HA)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Crush (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)
Yield (MT/HA)(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

151
243
238
3,332
3,813
0
2,600
910
125
3,635
178
3,813
1.58

152
246
243
3,332
3,821
0
2,578
894
176
3,645
173
3,821
1.60

155
178
253
3,500
3,931
0
2,625
920
160
3,705
226
3,931
1.63

155
173
247
2,970
3,390
0
2,260
850
130
3,240
150
3,390
1.59

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

158
150
259
3,020
3,429
0
2,280
860
139
3,279
150
3,429
1.64

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Rapeseed (Oilseed)
Oilseed, Rapeseed
Market Year Begins
Japan

Area Harvested (1000 HA)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Crush (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)
Yield (MT/HA)(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

2
207
4
1,976
2,187
0
2,000
0
5
2,005
182
2,187
2

2
207
4
1,976
2,187
0
1,975
0
30
2,005
182
2,187
2.1

2
182
4
2,050
2,236
0
2,050
0
5
2,055
181
2,236
2

2
182
4
2,100
2,286
0
2,100
0
6
2,106
180
2,286
2.1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2
180
4
2,100
2,284
0
2,100
0
4
2,104
180
2,284
2

3

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Cottonseed (Oilseed)
Oilseed, Cottonseed
Market Year Begins
Japan

Area Planted (Cotton) (1000 HA)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Crush (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 HA), (1000 MT)

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

0
4
0
93
97
0
25
0
70
95
2
97

0
4
0
93
97
0
28
0
65
93
4
97

0
2
0
100
102
0
25
0
75
100
2
102

0
4
0
90
94
0
27
0
63
90
4
94

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
4
0
92
96
0
27
0
65
92
4
96

Production
Soybean Area Harvested
Figure 1. Trends in Japan’s Soybean Planting Area and Yield

Source: MAFF
Note: MY 2024/25f represents FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts. MY 2030/31t represents MAFF’s target for 2030.

4Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) reported soybean production area for2023/24 marketing year (MY: October to September) was at 154,800 hectares (ha)1, a 2.1 percent
increase from 151,600 ha in MY 2022/23 (Figure 1) as farmers respond to the high price of food-gradesoybeans and proceed to switch from growing rice, other legumes, or sugar beets. In Hokkaido, thenorthernmost of Japan’s four main islands, planted areas increased by 5 percent, but Kyushu (anothermain island) saw a decrease in planted areas by 1 percent for MY 2023/24. As food-grade soybean
prices continue to be elevated, FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan’s MY 2024/25 soybean harvested area toincrease by further 2 percent to 158,000 ha. Based on the 2020 Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture andRural Areas (JA2020-0197), MAFF aims to increase Japan’s soybean production area to 170,000 ha by2030 (Figure 1).
Hokkaido’s soybean yield is much higher than that of other prefectures (Figure 1) because the farmers
plant on large dry fields, rather than small rice paddies. In addition, some small producers outside of
Hokkaido choose high-premium niche varieties, such as kuromame (black soybeans), which have an
inherently lower yield.
Production
In MY 2022/23, MAFF announced that the domestic soybean production was 242,800 MT, with a yieldof 1.60 MT/ha. As typical in Japan, Hokkaido dominated soybean production, with 44 percent of thetotal MY 2022/23 domestic soybeans (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Trends in Japan’s Soybean Production

Source: MAFF
Note: MY 2023/24e represents FAS/Tokyo’s estimate based on Zen-noh statistics. MY 2024/25f represents FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts.

1

This is the soybean production area of CY 2023. This does not include edamame (immature soybeans) cultivation, which
MAFF considers a vegetable rather than grain crop.

5

For MY 2023/24, Hokkaido experienced rainy weather during harvest season, resulting in a lower-thanexpected yield. The quality of soybeans in Hokkaido was disappointing, which resulted in an excess ofoff-grade soybeans. On the other hand, yields in the Tohoku, Kanto, Kinki, and Kyushu regions
improved from the previous year. Based on the November 2023 production and sales estimate by the
National Federation of Agricultural Co-operative Associations (Zen-noh), FAS/Tokyo estimates2
Japan’s MY 2023/24 soybean yield of 1.59 MT/ha, unchanged from the previous marketing year.
Accordingly, FAS/Tokyo estimates the production volume to be 247,000 metric tons (MT) in MY
2023/24.
Assuming the yield in MY 2024/25 will be the 10-year average of 1.64 MT/ha, FAS/Tokyo forecasts
Japan’s soybean production will reach 259,000 MT in MY 2024/25.
Japan’s soybean production is focused on non-genetically engineered (GE) food-grade soybean
varieties, of which approximately 80 percent are distributed via the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives(JA) to food manufacturers, such as tofu, natto, or miso producers (see Utilization of Food-Grade
Soybeans in Japan). The remainder is typically sold for household cooking, directly to small businesses,
or used for planting. Domestic production does not contribute to the crush figures. Domestically
produced soybeans are approximately 30 percent of Japan’s food soybean market 3.
RapeseedJapan has limited rapeseed production located primarily in Hokkaido, where farmers plant rapeseed as arotation crop. MAFF announced that the MY 2023/24 rapeseed harvested area4 was 1,740 ha, the same
number as MY 2022/23. MAFF also reported MY 2023/24 rapeseed production at 3,680 MT, unchanged
from MY 2022/23. FAS/Tokyo forecasts the MY 2023/24 rapeseed harvest area and production volume
will be unchanged at roughly 2,000 ha and 4,000 MT, respectively.
Cottonseed
Japan does not produce cottonseed.

Consumption
Crush
Soybeans and Rapeseed
Japan’s generally stable vegetable oil demand is the primary driver of oilseed consumption in the
country. Three crushers (Nisshin Oillio, J-Oil Mills, and Showa Sangyo) produce over 80 percent ofJapan’s vegetable oil volume primarily from imported soybeans and canola seeds. Two factors largely
determine Japan’s consumption of soybeans and canola seeds for crushing: relative crush margin andvegetable oil consumption by Japanese consumers.

2

MAFF will publish its official MY 2022/23 production figures in April 2024.
Food soybean market excludes oil-grade soybeans for crushing.
4This figure does not include ornamental planting areas.
36

Figure 3. Crush Margin of Soybean Oil vs. Canola Oil Production for Japanese Crushers

Sources: Chicago Board of Trade, the Intercontinental Exchange and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Note: Gross production cost for crude oil represents the difference between the input (i.e., oilseed future) price and the meal future price. The production costdoes not include operational costs.

The crushers adjust the relative proportion of soybeans to canola in response to vegetable oil demand
and the relative crush margins for soybeans and rapeseed (Figure 3). The poor MY 2021/22 Canadiancanola crop led Japanese crushers to increase soybean procurement. However, this procurement trend
stopped around mid-MY 2022/23 as canola seeds price came down relatively faster than soybean prices.
At the beginning of MY 2023/24, the crush margin of canola became better than that of soybeans. As aresult, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a shift toward increased canola crush at the expense of soybeans in MY
2023/24. As the vegetable oil price has increased5, FAS/Tokyo forecasts overall vegetable oil
consumption to remain low in next two MYs.
Table 1 compares the oil extraction between soybeans and rapeseeds. MAFF reported that in MY
2022/23, Japan crushed 2.578 million MT (MMT) of soybeans to produce 518,430 MT of soybean oil,with a 0.201 oil extraction rate. In MY 2022/23, MAFF also reported that Japan crushed 1.975 MMT ofrapeseeds, which was the lowest figure since MY 1997/98. The extraction rate was 0.428 and produced
845,425 MT of rapeseed oil.
As soybean crush margins deteriorate, FAS/Tokyo estimates the Japanese soybean crush will decreaseby 12 percent to 2.26 MMT. Conversely, as canola crush margins improve, FAS/Tokyo estimates theJapanese rapeseed crush will increase by 6.3 percent to 2.10 MMT. For MY 2024/25, assuming extreme

5This point will be expanded on in the “oils” section.

7

market conditions to dissipate, but the overall vegetable oil demand to be soft, FAS/Tokyo forecasts theJapanese soybean crush will recover to 2.28 MMT and the rapeseed crush will remain at 2.10 MMT.
Table 1. Conversion Rate of Oilseeds into Oil in Japan (Unit: MMT)

MY 2018/19
MY 2019/20
MY 2020/21
MY 2021/22
MY 2022/23
MY 2023/24f
MY 2024/25f

Soybeans
2.470
+2.9%
2.393
-3.1%
2.364
-1.2%
2.600
+10.0%
2.578
-0.8%
2.260
-12.3%
2.280

Soybean Oil
Production
0.485
+3.6%
0.467
-3.6%
0.462
-1.1%
0.519
+12.3%
0.518
-0.2%
0.445
-14.1%
0.450

Extr. Rate
0.196
0.195
0.195
0.200
0.201
0.197
0.197

Rapeseeds
2.396
+2.3%
2.270
-5.3%
2.357
+3.9%
2.144
-9.0%
1.975
-7.9%
2.100
+6.3%
2.100

Rapeseed Oil
Production
1.024
-0.4%
0.979
-4.4%
1.007
+2.9%
0.904
-10.2%
0.845
-6.5%
0.903
+6.9%
0.900

Extr. Rate
0.428
0.431
0.427
0.422
0.428
0.430
0.429

Source: MAFF
Note: “f” represents FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts. FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts of MY 2023/24f include MAFF’s official data from October 2023 to
February 2024. The percent amounts are the annual changes from the previous MYs.

Cottonseed
MAFF reports that in MY 2022/23, Japan crushed 28,134 MT of cottonseed to produce 4,769 MT of
cottonseed oil, with an oil extraction rate of 0.170. Cottonseed oil is principally used as a high-end oilfor frying (e.g., tempura and boutique donuts), as well as a high-end oil for canned fish. Cottonseed
meal (12,842 MT) largely went to fertilizer and feed for dairy cows. FAS/Tokyo projects the cottonseed
crush will remain at 27,000 MT for MY 2022/23 and MY 2023/24 as Japan’s cottonseed oil demand is
not price sensitive. Okamura Oil Mill in Osaka is the only cottonseed crusher in Japan.
Food Use Consumption
Processed soy food manufacturers (e.g., tofu, natto, miso, soymilk, simmered soybeans, etc.) consume
most food-grade soybeans in Japan. Over the last decade, Japan’s food-grade soybean consumption has
remained approximately 0.9 MMT annually. Due to the general perception in Japan that processed soy
products are inexpensive staple foods (see Utilization of Food Grade Soybeans in Japan), stealth pricehikes (also known as shrinkflation) became a common practice.
The “Daily Soybean Oil6” publication projected soy food use would decline in 2023 to 894 MMT. The
same publication also projected the consumption of tofu varieties to decline slightly, but natto varieties
maintained a consistent volume in 2023. FAS/Tokyo forecasts food consumption of soybeans will
decrease to 850,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and increase to 860,000 MT for MY 2024/25.
6Page 2 of the June 30, 2023, issue.

8Feed, Seed, and Waste Consumption
Soybean and Rapeseed
According to MAFF’s feed statistics, feed manufacturers’ soybean consumption decreased to 77,594
MT in MY 2022/23. Year-to-date estimates indicate feed demand for relatively expensive soybeans willfurther decline in MY 2023/24. Accounting for seeds, waste and local feed consumption not captured by
MAFF statistics7, FAS/Tokyo projects soybean feed, seed and waste consumption will drop to 130,000
MT in MY 2023/24 and then marginally increase for MY 2024/25. Rapeseed feed, seed and waste
consumption will remain minimal and consistent.
Cottonseed
Feed manufacturers use cottonseed as a minor ingredient in feed for dairy cows to boost milk fat. From
March 2023, MAFF allocated 5 billion yen ($33.3 million8) in the 2022 supplementary budget toremove up to 40,000 dairy cows in response to the overproduction of milk (2023 Japan Dairy andProducts Annual and 2024 Japan Livestock and Products Semi-Annual). The feed consumption ofcottonseed was 65,000 MT in MY 2022/23, decreasing significantly from the previous marketing year.
Japanese dairy experts believe the number of milk cows will hit the nadir in the middle of MY 2023/24,
then will slowly start to recover. In order to avoid the oversupply of fresh milk, FAS/Tokyo projects
cottonseed feed consumption will decrease to 63,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and then recover to 65,000
MT in MY 2024/25.

Trade
Besides some domestic food-grade soybean production, Japan fully relies on oilseed imports and has no
tariffs on soybeans, rapeseed, and cottonseed.
Soybeans
In MY 2022/23, Japan imported 3.332 MMT of soybeans, a marginal decrease from 3.455 MMT in MY
2021/22, resulting in the largest import figure in the previous 15 years. In MY 2022/23, major suppliers
included the United States (70.4 percent, including both feed-grade and food-grade); Brazil (18.6
percent, feed-grade); Canada (10.4 percent, food-grade) and China (0.6 percent, food-grade). Generally,
about 80 percent of imports are feed-grade and 20 percent food-grade. Although Japanese crushers
prefer the oil quality from U.S. soybeans, Japanese industry’s requirement of 47.5 percent crude protein9
in soybean meal for high-protein feed (Hi-Pro) helps preserve Brazil’s market share due to the higher
crude protein content in Brazilian soybeans.
As weak demand remains for both oil-grade and food-grade soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan toimport 2.97 MMT and 3.02 MMT soybeans in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, respectively.
As illustrated in Figure 4, soybean import prices to Japan have surged since the beginning of 2021,
reflecting the Chicago futures price. Oil-grade soybean import prices were steady at about 40-50 yen per
7

Feed, seed and waste consumption represents residual consumption and includes off-grade domestic soybeans.
$1 ≈ 150 yen (March 2024)
9
The majority of domestic soybean meal production is low-protein (Lo-Pro) soybean meal, which requires 44 percent of
crude protein content.
89

kilogram (kg) from 2019 to 2020. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Japanese yen depreciation
against major currencies, the import price spiked to around 90 yen per kg in 2022 fall. Food-gradesoybean prices have also surged, but Japanese food manufacturers often use North American “identity
preserved” (IP) soybeans to target price sensitive mass markets. Japanese buyers pay premiums toensure North American farmers plant lower-yield food-grade soybean varieties. The food-grade soybean
premiums were about 60-70 percent over oil-grade soybean prices between 2019 and mid-2020;
however, as oil-grade soybean prices have surged, the percentage of premiums dropped to 20-30 percent
from 2021.
Figure 4. Import Unit Prices of Oil-Grade and Food-Grade Soybeans

Source: Japan Customs
Note: Oil-grade soybean prices are based on imported soybean unit price at Mizushima and Kashima Custom Districts and food-gradesoybean prices are based on imported Canadian soybean prices.

Japanese food manufacturers produce soy food products using domestic soybeans to target high-end
customers. The manufacturers emphasize that their higher priced products use domestic soybeans,differentiating from their more affordable products that use imported IP soybeans. Based on market
price statistics, the wholesale price gap between domestic soybeans and North American IP soybeans
were about 60-80 percent until 2021 but has since dropped to about 15 percent in 2022. As the pricepremium of domestic soybeans narrowed, many food manufacturers seek to increase the use of domestic
soybeans over imported soybeans, signaling to Japanese farmers to plant more soybeans.
As the price of food-grade soybeans has elevated, Japanese wholesalers and food processors increased
stocks of food-grade soybeans around the beginning of MY 2023/24. Due to the weak Japanese yen
against other major currencies, the price competitiveness of North American food-grade soybeans has
heavily weakened against domestic food-grade soybeans. Thus, North American food-grade IP soybeans
will face challenging market conditions in near future. Please see JA2023-0131 for more details aboutfood price inflation in the Japanese market.
10

RapeseedIn MY 2022/23, Japan imported 1.976 MMT of rapeseed, declining 6.6 percent from the previous MY.
Historically, Japan has relied on Canada for approximately 95-97 percent of its rapeseed imports.
Starting from MY 2021/22, Japan increased the purchase of Australian canola seeds due to a historicallybad MY 2021/22 canola crop in Canada (see Canada Oilseeds Annual). On the other hand, Australia had
bumper canola crops in MY 2021/22 and MY2022/23 (see Australia Oilseeds Annual). Japanesecrushers also noted higher oil extraction rates from Australian canola seeds compared to Canadian seeds.
In MY 2022/23, 58.2 percent of rapeseed imported to Japan came from Canada and 41.8 percent camefrom Australia (Figure 5). Year-to-date estimate indicates this trend continues in MY 2023/24.
As the canola crush margin has improved drastically compared to soybean crush margin (Figure 3),
FAS/Tokyo projects canola imports will increase to 2.10 MMT in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Figure 5. Japan’s Rapeseed Imports by Origin

Source: Japan Customs
Note: 2023/24e estimates are the year-to-date estimates from October 2023 to February 2024.

Cottonseed
GE cottonseeds must undergo regulatory approval for food and feed use in Japan (refer to Japan
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual for the regulations). Consequently, only select countries can provide
cottonseeds to Japanese consumers. In MY 2022/23, Japanese imports of cottonseed dropped to 92,710
MT due to weak feed demand. Australia emerged as the primary supplier, holding a 70.7 percent market
share. Australian cottonseeds were utilized for both crushing and feed purposes. Greece was the second
largest supplier, commanding a 14.9 percent market share. The Japanese oil crusher benefited from thehigh oil content of Greece's non-GE variety, though the sufficient availability of Greek cottonseeds
could be questionable in MY 2023/24. As U.S. cotton production in MY 2022/23 was the lowest since
MY 2015/16, the import share of U.S. cottonseeds dropped to 13.0 percent and the entirety used for
feed.

11

FAS/Tokyo projects Japanese cottonseed imports to contract to 90,000 MT in MY 2023/24 due to weak
feed demand by the dairy industry, then an increase to 92,000 MT in MY 2024/25. As the pricing
becomes more favorable, industry experts believe Japan will increase Brazilian cottonseeds for both feed
and crush in the next two marketing years.

Stocks
MAFF reported that the soybean stock level at the beginning of MY 2022/23 grew to 246,300 MT, ofwhich oil crushers held 242,662 MT and feed manufacturers held the remaining 3,638 MT. However, as
the soybean crush has slowed, soybean stocks have also declined to 172,656 MT (169,114 MT atcrushers and 3,542 MT at feed millers) at the beginning of MY 2023/24. MAFF also reported that MY
2022/23 rapeseed beginning stocks at crushers were 206,809 MT and the MY 2023/24 rapeseed
beginning stocks were 181,923 MT.
FAS/Tokyo forecasts that crushers will draw down on soybean stocks in MY 2022/23, resulting in
ending stocks of around 150,000 MT in both MY 2022/23 and MY 2023/24. Rapeseed ending stocks are
forecasted around 180,000 MT in MY 2022/23 and MY 2023/24.
MAFF reported MY 2022/23 beginning cottonseed stocks for crush at 873 MT and ending cottonseed
stocks at 1,550 MT. There are no official cottonseed stock figures for feed. FAS/Tokyo estimates feed
cottonseed stocks at 3,000 MT. FAS/Tokyo forecasts total cottonseed ending stocks will hover around
4,000 MT in both MY 2022/23 and MY 2023/24.

12

MealsCommodities:
Meal, Soybean
Meal, Rapeseed
Meal, Fish
Meal, Palm Kernel

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Soybean Meal
Meal, Soybean

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Market Year Begins
Japan

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Crush (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

2,600
0.755
92
1,962
1,540
3,594
1
200
200
3,150
3,550
43
3,594

2,578
0.751
92
1,937
1,540
3,569
1
186
190
3,090
3,466
102
3,569

2,625
0.754
43
1,980
1,600
3,623
1
210
200
3,150
3,560
62
3,623

2,260
0.752
102
1,700
1,720
3,522
2
190
190
3,040
3,420
100
3,522

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2,280
0.752
100
1,715
1,706
3,521
1
190
190
3,040
3,420
100
3,521

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Rapeseed Meal
Meal, Rapeseed

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Market Year Begins
Japan

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Crush (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

2,000
0.577
18
1,153
20
1,191
0
225
0
950
1,175
16
1,191

1,975
0.565
18
1,116
20
1,154
0
110
0
980
1,090
64
1,154

2,050
0.576
16
1,181
5
1,202
0
235
0
950
1,185
17
1,202

2,100
0.556
64
1,168
6
1,238
0
110
0
1,058
1,168
70
1,238

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2,100
0.556
70
1,168
6
1,244
0
110
0
1,064
1,174
70
1,244

13

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Fishmeal
Meal, Fish
Market Year Begins
Japan

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Jan 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Jan 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Jan 2024
USDA Official
New Post

950
0.211
21
200
170
391
3
70
0
300
370
18
391

Catch For Reduction (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

882
0.219
21
193
182
396
3
66
0
300
366
27
396

950
0.211
18
200
170
388
5
75
0
285
360
23
388

900
0.217
27
195
178
400
5
70
0
300
370
25
400

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

900
0.217
25
195
180
400
5
70
0
300
370
25
400

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Palm Residues (HS Code: 2306.60)
Meal, Palm Kernel

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Market Year Begins
Japan

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Crush (1000 MT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

0
0
0
85
85
0
80
0
5
85
0
85

0
0
0
85
85
0
81
0
4
85
0
85

0
0
0
100
100
0
95
0
5
100
0
100

0
0
0
80
80
0
76
0
4
80
0
80

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
70
70
0
66
0
4
70
0
70

Note: Due to the difference in the application of HS codes used by Japan and its palm kernel residue suppliers (Malaysia and Indonesia),
Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s export data differ notably from Japan’s import data (see JA2020-0110). FAS/Tokyo relies on suppliers’
export data to capture Japanese palm kernel residue imports, which are primarily utilized as biomass by Japanese powerplants.
Above numbers do not represent total PKS consumption by Japanese power plants (see JA2023-0071).

Production
Soybean and Rapeseed Meal
Japanese oil crushers produce soybean meal and rapeseed meal as by-products, supplying approximately
half of soybean meal demand and all of rapeseed meal demand. FAS/Tokyo forecasts a rise in domestic
rapeseed production and a decrease in soybean meal production for MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25 dueto the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans (see Table 2).

14

Table 2. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Production from Domestic Crush (Unit: MMT)

MY 2018/19
MY 2019/20
MY 2020/21
MY 2021/22
MY 2022/23
MY 2023/24f
MY 2024/25f

Soybean Meal
Soybeans Production Extr.Rate
2.470
1.854
0.751
2.393
1.799
0.752
2.364
1.783
0.754
2.600
1.946
0.749
+10.0%
+9.2%
2.578
1.937
0.751
-0.8%
-0.5%
2.260
1.700
0.752
-12.3%-12.3%
2.280

1.715

Rapeseed Meal
Rapeseeds Production
Extr.Rate
2.396
1.326
0.554
2.270
1.236
0.545
2.357
1.322
0.561
2.144
1.221
0.570
-9.0%
-7.6%
1.975
1.116
0.552
-7.9%
-8.6%
2.100
1.168
0.556
+6.3%
+4.7%

0.752

2.100

1.168

0.556

Total SME
2.798
2.679
2.724
2.815
2.731
2.531
2.546

Source: MAFF
Note: “f” indicates forecasts by FAS/Tokyo. FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts of MY 2023/24 is based on MAFF’s official data from October 2023
to February 2024. The “%” figure indicates annual change from the previous MYs.

Fishmeal
Table 3. Japan’s Fishmeal Production and Supply (Unit: thousand MT)
CY
FM-MY
Trimmings
Whole Fish2019
2018/19
665
225

2020
2019/20
664
239

2021
2020/21
672
280

Total
Fish Oil
Extr. Rate
Domestic
Production
Fishmeal
Extr. Rate
Peru
Chile
Fishmeal Imports U.S.
U.S. (%)
Total
Crustacean Meal Imports

890
74
8.3%
189
21.2%
46
21
15
6.8%
213
7

903
78
8.7%
195
21.5%
51
39
17
8.6%
203
6

952
79
8.3%
205
21.5%
45
22
14
9.3%
146
5

Total Fishmeal Supply

408

404

356

Domestic Input

2022

2023

2024f

2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
620
570
231
312
900
851
882
67
72
7.8%
8.1%
187
193
195
21.9%
21.8%
21.7%
40
23
20
22
8
14
5.0%
7.9%
160
178
175
5
4
5
352

375

375

Sources: Japan Marine Oil Association and Japan Customs
Note: Total numbers may not match due to rounding error. “f” indicates FAS/Tokyo’s forecasts.

The fishmeal marketing year (FM-MY) 2022/23 runs from January through December 2023 (i.e., thecalendar year or CY 2023). Japan utilizes primarily domestic fish trimmings and small whole fish,15

predominantly sardines (Sardinops melanostictus)10, as inputs in the production of fish oil and fishmeal(see Table 3). According to the Japan Marine Oil Association, Japan produced 192,800 MT of fishmeal
and 71,900 MT of fish oil from 888,200 MT of domestic inputs, including 312,100 MT of whole fish
and 570,300 MT of trimmings in CY 2023 (i.e., FM-MY 2022/23). The extraction rate of fishmeal was
21.8 percent.
In CY 2022 and CY 2023, the seafood market experienced a spike in prices, leading to a decline inprocessed seafood production and consumption in Japan. This decrease in consumption resulted in
reduced available trimmings for fishmeal and fish oil production. However, with some Western nations
banning seafood products of Russian origin, global seafood prices began to soften at the start of CY
2024. FAS/Tokyo predicts that the availability of fish trimmings will gradually increase in the future.
Meanwhile, sardine resources have been recovering compared to historically poor catches during theearly 2000s (Figure 6). In CY 2023, fishmeal producers in Hokkaido increased their use of whole fish
sardines. The Japan Fisheries Agency reported a total sardine catch of 641,797 MT in 2022, with
FAS/Tokyo estimating a slight increase to about 670,000 MT in 2023. As stocks of other species like
Pacific saury and Pacific mackerel declined, some Japanese seafood processors redirected sardine
utilization from fishmeal to food products for human consumption such as canned fish. Accordingly, theunit price of sardines has gradually risen since 2022. Nevertheless, the availability of sardines forfishmeal production will remain at a high level for the near future.
Figure 6. Japan’s Sardine Catch and Sardine Price

Source: Japan Fisheries Agency
Note: “e” indicates FAS/Tokyo’s estimation from MAFF monthly data.

As the inputs for both fish trimmings and whole sardine inputs will slightly increase over the next twomarketing years, Japanese fishmeal and oil production are likely to increase. FAS/Tokyo forecasts thatJapan will produce 195,000 MT of fishmeal from 900,000 MT of domestic inputs, with an anticipated
10-year average extraction rate of 21.7 percent in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
10

Also known as Japanese pilchard or ma-iwashi.

16Palm Kernel Meal
Japan does not produce palm kernel meal.

Consumption
Feed and Waste Consumption
Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal
In MY 2022/23, MAFF reported that Japanese livestock animals and aquaculture consumed 3,090,095
MT of soybean meal and 979,699 MT of rapeseed meal. As Japanese feed millers increase theproduction of canola meal that will be fully utilized domestically, FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase inrapeseed meal feed and waste consumption to 1.06 MMT in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
FAS/Tokyo also forecasts gradual decreases in soybean meal feed consumption to 3.04 MMT in MY
2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Table 4. SME Protein Consumption by Livestock and Aquaculture (Unit: thousand MT)
Total
of DDGS & CGF&M
Animal-based protein subtotalof fishmealof slaughterhouse waste
Oilseed-based meals subtotalof rapeseed mealof soybean mealof palm kernel mealof other meal (sesame...)2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24e
8,461
8,527
8,600
8,690
8,665
8,507
8,547
775
771
704
704
703
728
735
664
676
697
770
751
702
714
236
263
264
266
264
252
249
316
313
334
393
374
344
356
3,925
3,984
4,067
4,083
4,061
3,955
3,953
801
796
807
818
796
697
753
2,957
3,020
3,096
3,097
3,098
3,090
3,043
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
167
168
164
168
167
168
157

Source: MAFF

Based on MAFF’s feed data, FAS/Tokyo estimates Japanese feed millers consumed 8.51 MMT ofsoybean meal equivalent (SME11) protein in MY 2022/23, showing a decline of 1.8 percent from theprevious MY 2021/22 (Table 4). This decrease was influenced by three factors: (i) steep feed priceincreases; (ii) outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), particularly affecting egg layers,
led to a 5.6 percent reduction in poultry flocks (2024 Japan Grain and Feed Annual), and; (iii) Japan
reduced the dairy cow population by 3 percent due to an oversupply of milk (2024 Japan Livestock andProducts Semi-Annual). As these issues have tempered, FAS/Tokyo projects feed demand will gradually
recover in both MY 2023/24 and 2024/25.

11

To facilitate the comparison of crude protein levels across different feeds, they are expressed in soybean meal equivalent(SME): 1 MT of rapeseed meal equals 0.7115 MT of SME; 1 MT of fishmeal is 1.445 MT of SME, 1 MT of soybeans is
0.8 MT of SME; and 1 MT of DDGs equals 0.5833 MT of SME.

17

In MY 2022/23, SME protein consumption comprised 36.3 percent soybean meal, 8.2 percent rapeseed
meal, 8.6 percent corn-derived protein by-products (including distillers’ dried grains with solubles(DDGS) and corn gluten feed and meal (CGF&M)), 4.0 percent slaughterhouse waste (such as meat andbone meal12 and feather meal), and 3.0 percent fishmeal.
There was a decrease in soft drink consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequently reducing
the production of cornstarch and its by-product, CGF&M. Additionally, the outbreak of HPAI weakened
the supply of feather meal in MY 2022/23. However, with the expected recovery in CGF&M and feather
meal consumption over the next two MYs, its anticipated that feed millers will marginally decrease theproportion of oilseed-based meal.
Japanese feed millers value the high protein content of soybean meal but are wary of its high potassium
content, which can cause loose stools. To mitigate this issue, the feed millers maintain a certain
proportion of canola meal in compound feed. Concerns related to the MY 2022/23 availability of canola
meal are expected to be alleviated as oil crushers increase production over the next two MYs.

Figure 7. Proportion of Digestible Protein in Compound Feed by Animal in MY 2021/22

Source: MAFF
Note: *denotes FAS/Tokyo estimates of aquaculture meal consumption during the oilseed MY (October-September).

12

Since 2001, MAFF allows meat and bone meal derived from chicken and pork for poultry and swine feed. Please see
JA2021-0091 for more information.

18

Figure 7 provides detailed information on the proportion of digestible protein sources in the diets offarmed animals and aquaculture in MY 2022/23. Please see JA2024-0014 for more details about
Japanese feed markets from energy perspective.
Fishmeal
In CY 2023 (i.e., FM-MY 2022/23), MAFF reported that fishmeal consumption for livestock was
50,728 MT13, marking a 10.3 percent decline from CY 2022 and was attributed to the high cost offishmeal. Meanwhile, FAS/Tokyo estimated that annual aquaculture consumption of fishmeal reachedabout 250,000 MT in CY 2023, bringing the total fishmeal consumption for feed and waste to around
300,000 MT annually. Looking ahead, FAS/Tokyo forecasts that fishmeal consumption for feed willremain steady at 300,000 MT in both CY 2024 and CY 2025.
Palm Kernel Meal
FAS/Tokyo anticipates that palm kernel meal (PKM) feed consumption will maintain its yearly rate of
4,000 MT. Industry sources suggest that palm kernel meal in Japan is limited in usage as a minor feed
ingredient for ruminant animals, e.g. sheep.

Food Use Consumption
Anticipating the continuing elevated cost of North American food-grade soybean varieties, FAS/Tokyo
estimates that the consumption of soybean meal for food use declined to 190,000 MT in MY 2022/23.
FAS/Tokyo projects that Japan's consumption of soybean meal for food purposes will remain stable at
190,000 MT in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Food-grade soybean meal, distinct from typical feed-grade varieties, is derived from non-GE soybeans
and undergoes no heat treatment. In Japan, this specialized product finds primary usage among
manufacturers producing soy sauce, isolated plant protein products (such as alternative meats),
hydrolyzed vegetable protein (HVP), and beer-like alcoholic beverages (see Utilization of Food-Grade
Soybeans in Japan). For further information on recent trends within Japan's expanding market for plantbased meat alternatives, please read JA2023-0061.
Industrial Consumption
The primary industrial use of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and fishmeal is for organic fertilizer
production, which is particularly favored by growers of specialty crops such as tea and tobacco. In
Japan, reliable fertilizer input data is not published, but industry experts suggest that demand remains
low due to the dominance of chemical fertilizers in the market. Despite the high prices of chemicalfertilizers, persisting following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the elevated costs of soybean meal,
rapeseed meal, and fishmeal are a key factor restricting the growth of the organic fertilizer market.
FAS/Tokyo anticipates stable consumption levels for soybean meal, rapeseed meal and fishmeal for
fertilizer in the near term.

13

MAFF’s feed statistics completely cover feed production for livestock animals, but partially cover feed production foraquaculture. Accordingly, FAS/Tokyo estimates the consumption of fishmeal for aquaculture.

19

Palm Kernel Shell
Japan utilizes a large volume of palm kernel shells (PKS) and other oil palm-derived residues as biomass
for power generation (see 2023 Japan Biomass Annual). Feed-in tariff (FIT)-eligible biomass power
plants located near ports use PKS and imported wood pellets as stable feedstocks. Usage in biomass
power plants has increased the volume of PKS imports since 2012. The Ministry of Economy, Trade andIndustry (METI) has announced plans to require stricter third-party environmental certification from
April 2024 for PKS to qualify for the FIT program.
Trade
Japan has no tariff on meal products.
Soybean Meal
In MY 2022/23, Japan Customs reported that Japan imported 1.54 MMT of soybean meal, marking a 9.3
percent decrease from the previous MY (Figure 8). China re-emerged as the primary supplier, holding a
35.0 percent share, trailed closely by Brazil with 34.3 percent and the United States with 16.9 percent.
The United States supplied both food-grade non-GE soybean meal and feed-grade LoPro soybean meal
to Japan. Notably, Japan did not import soybean meal from Argentina during this period. In total, thisimported soybean meal constituted 44.3 percent of Japan's soybean meal supply in MY 2022/23.
With domestic soybean production anticipated to decline, FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in Japan'ssoybean imports to 1.72 MMT in MY 2023/24, followed by a slight reduction to 1.71 MMT in MY
2024/25.
Figure 8. Japan’s Soybean Meal Share

Source: MAFF, Japan Customs

20

Rapeseed Meal
According to Japan Customs, in MY 2022/23 Japan imported 20,343 MT of fertilizer-grade high erucic
acid rapeseed meal from China and India. FAS/Tokyo forecasts fertilizer-grade rapeseed meal imports todecrease to 6,000 MT annually for the coming years.
PKM and PKS
Japan imports the by-products derived from oil palms in Indonesia and Malaysia, with a focus on PKS
for power generation (see JA2020-0110). In MY 2022/23, Malaysia and Indonesia collectively exported
84,730 MT of HS 230660 products, marking a significant decline from the previous year. Notably,
Malaysian exporters often designate HS codes arbitrarily, whether HS 230660 or 140490 for PKS. The
decrease observed in MY 2022/23 reflects the shift by Malaysian exporters of choosing HS 140490 overHS 230660 when exporting PKS to Japan. It is crucial to highlight that the Japanese consumption of
PKS for power generation actually increased during the same period (see Japan Biomass Annual).
However, with the anticipated April 2024 implementation of the FIT program’s stricter sustainability
certification requirements, FAS/Tokyo projects a decline in PKS imports for both MY 2023/24 and MY
2024/25.
Fishmeal
Traditionally, Japan has mainly relied on Peru, Chile, and Ecuador for importing "brown meal" derived
from anchovies, while obtaining "white meal" primarily from United States’ Alaskan pollock. However,
over the past 15 years, Japan has increasingly turned to importing cheaper fishmeal sourced from
trimmings and white fish, such as Pangasius, from Southeast and South Asian countries.
According to Japan Customs data, in CY 2023 (i.e., FM-MY 2022/23), Japan imported 178,333 MT offishmeal (see Table 3). India notably surpassed Peru and Chile to become the largest supplier offishmeal in CY 2023. Additionally, Japan imported 3,939 MT of krill and other crustacean meal tostimulate the fishes' feeding responses and to increase fish meat coloration.
Due to the significant expense associated with importing fishmeal, FAS/Tokyo anticipates that fishmeal
imports will remain steady at around 180,000 MT in both CY 2024 and CY 2025.
StocksIn MY 2022/23, MAFF reported that soybean meal beginning stocks were 120,750 MT (62,888 MT atcrushers and 57,862 MT at feed millers) and ending stocks were 101,982 MT (47,668 MT at crushers
and 54,314 MT at feed millers). MAFF also reported the rapeseed meal beginning stocks at 49,080 MT(31,255 MT at crushers and 17825 MT at feed millers) and ending stocks at 63,244 MT (41,317 MT atcrushers and 21,927 MT at feed millers). As oil crushers have increased the production of rapeseed mealand decreased the production of soybean meal, feed manufacturers have slowly adjusted their feed
formulas and stocks. FAS/Tokyo forecasts both soybean meal and rapeseed meal stocks will remain
steady in both MY 2023/24 and 2024/25.
According to MAFF, feed manufacturers held 20,508 MT of fishmeal at the beginning of CY 2023 andincreased it to 26,758 MT at the beginning of CY 2024. FAS/Tokyo forecasts fishmeal stocks willremain around 25,000 MT.

21

Oils
Commodities:
Oil, Soybean
Oil, Rapeseed
Oil, Palm
Oil, Sunflowerseed

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Soybean Oil
Oil, Soybean
Market Year Begins
Japan

Crush (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

2,600
0.197
18
511
7
536
1
35
490
0
525
10
536

2,578
0.201
18
518
7
543
1
34
480
0
514
28
543

2,625
0.197
10
516
10
536
1
35
480
0
515
20
536

2,260
0.197
28
445
10
483
1
32
430
0
462
20
483

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2,280
0.197
20
450
10
480
1
29
430
0
459
20
480

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Rapeseed Oil
Oil, Rapeseed

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Market Year Begins
Japan

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Crush (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

2,000
0.427
46
853
13
912
5
50
840
0
890
17
912

1,975
0.428
46
845
13
904
10
50
817
0
867
27
904

2,050
0.427
17
875
20
912
5
50
830
0
880
27
912

2,100
0.430
27
903
10
940
5
50
855
0
905
30
940

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2,100
0.429
30
900
10
940
5
50
855
0
905
30
940

22

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Palm Oil
Oil, Palm
Market Year Begins
Japan

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

0
8
0
660
668
0
110
550
0
660
8
668

Area Harvested (HA)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(HA), (1000 MT)

0
8
0
660
668
0
105
550
5
660
8
668

0
8
0
660
668
0
110
550
0
660
8
668

0
8
0
670
678
0
105
558
5
668
10
678

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
10
0
670
680
0
105
560
5
670
10
680

Production, Supply, and Distribution of Sunflowerseed Oil
Oil, Sunflowerseed
Market Year Begins
Japan

2022/2023

2023/2024

2024/2025

Oct 2022
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2023
USDA Official
New Post

Oct 2024
USDA Official
New Post

Crush (1000 MT)
Extraction Rate (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
Production (1000 MT)
MY Imports (1000 MT)
Total Supply (1000 MT)
MY Exports (1000 MT)
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT)
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
Total Distribution (1000 MT)(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

0
0
3
0
14
17
0
0
15
0
15
2
17

0
0
3
0
11
14
0
1
12
0
13
1
14

0
0
2
0
30
32
0
0
30
0
30
2
32

0
0
1
0
15
16
0
2
13
0
15
1
16

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
18
19
0
2
15
0
17
2
19

Note: “New Post” sunflower seed oil PS&D figures do not include safflower oil.

Overall Vegetable Oil Market
Japanese vegetable oil demand has been a main driver in shaping Japan's oilseeds and products market.
With the exception of palm stearin oil, primarily used for power generation between MY 2016/17 andMY 2019/20, the overall vegetable oil market in Japan has been stable (see Figure 9). The domestic
crush supplies over 60 percent of the market. Edible vegetable oil consumption reached 2.67 million
metric tons (MMT) in MY 2018/19, but gradually declined to 2.48 MMT by MY 2022/23, having been
influenced by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and high vegetable oil prices. Additionally,
Japan's population decline and aging society cast a pessimistic outlook on long-term oil demand.

23

Figure 9. Japanese Vegetable Oil Production and Imports

Sources: MAFF and Japan Customs
Note: Until MY 2019/20, Japanese power companies utilized imported palm stearin oil as feedstock. FAS/Tokyo omitted palm stearin oilfrom its calculation of the total edible vegetable oil consumption. The 2023/24 estimate is based on year-to-date estimates from October
2023 to January 2024.

In MY 2022/23, out of the total 2.48 MMT edible vegetable oil market, rapeseed oil maintained a 35
percent share, palm olein oil accounted for 25 percent, and soybean oil held an 18 percent share.
Coconut oil retained a stable share of 4.5 percent. Rice bran oil, leveraging domestic rice bran, became
popular among Japanese households and increased its share to 4.4 percent. Corn oil and sesame oil,
predominantly crushed domestically, expanded their respective market shares to 3.0 percent and 2.3
percent. The high prices for imported olive oil and sunflowerseed oil weakened consumer demand,
resulting in reduced market share of 2.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
The edible vegetable oil market experienced a 4.2 percent contraction in MY 2022/23 driven by surging
retail prices amidst stagnant household disposable income. Dominated by a few large oil crushers, theJapanese vegetable oil market saw prices rise to offset the increased raw material costs. From March
2021 to January 2023, the retail price for vegetable oil soared by 67 percent, far exceeding increases inother staple foods (see Figure 10). This price surge affected various processed foods, leading tosubsequent price hikes over a period of time. Furthermore, businesses and households actively soughtways to decrease vegetable oil consumption.
For example, restaurants invested in oil filters, reducing the frequency of necessary oil changes. The
popularity of long-life oil products surged, effectively minimizing overall oil consumption. Additionally,
households and eateries scaled back on mayonnaise and oil-based dressing usage. In the baking and24

snack industries, producers adjusted by offering smaller products, known as shrinkflation, leading to a
decline in oil usage.
Given this ongoing consumer mindset, FAS/Tokyo forecasts stagnant vegetable oil consumption levels
for both MY 2023/24 and 2024/25. For more detailed insights into Japan’s food inflation conditions,please refer to JA2023-0027.
Figure 10. Japan’s Consumer Price Index of Vegetable Oil and Other Food Items

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Production
Japanese oil crushers will aim to procure soybeans and canola to match the weak Japanese vegetable oil
demand while carefully monitoring the crush margin. As referenced in the oilseeds section, in MY
2022/23, MAFF reported that the domestic crush yielded 0.518 MMT for soybean oil and 0.845 MMT
for canola oil. Based on these crush margins, FAS/Tokyo forecasts that Japanese oil crushers will
decrease soybean oil production to 0.445 MMT and increase canola oil production to 0.903 MMT in
MY 2023/24 (see Table 1). FAS/Tokyo further forecasts soybean oil production to 0.45 MMT andcanola oil production to 0.90 MMT in MY 2024/25.
Japan does not crush oil palms or sunflower seeds.

Consumption
Food UseAs soybean oil production declines, FAS/Tokyo predicts that food use consumption for the oil will
decrease to 0.43 MMT in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25. Conversely, consumption of canola oil is
expected to surge to 0.855 MMT in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.

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As market conditions stabilize, FAS/Tokyo anticipates that food use consumption for palm oil willrebound to 0.56 MMT in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25. Japanese oil companies import crude palm
oil from Southeast Asia for refinement. The food-grade palm stearin oil, while being high in saturation,is of use when there are solid fat requirements. For example, with pastry dough, chocolate, baked goods,
margarine, shortening, and whipped cream substitutes. Palm olein, with good resistance to oxidation andoverheating, is utilized in food manufacturing for instant noodles, snacks, and frozen foods.
Additionally, palm olein can undergo further fractionation to produce palm "super" olein, which is more
liquified and shares similar applications with soybean and canola oil.
FAS/Tokyo forecasts a gradual recovery in sunflower seed oil for food use consumption to 15,000 MT
in MY 2024/25 if the Eastern European supply situation can improve. Food processors, currently
deterred by the high price of imported sunflowerseed oil, have shifted to cheaper alternatives such as
high-oleic canola and palm oils.
Industrial Use
Vegetable oils are gaining traction in various industrial sectors, including lubricants, soaps, and paints.
In alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), several companies are strategizing totransition from fossil fuel-based oils to plant-based alternatives. However, the lack of affordability forvegetable oils remains a mitigating factor in scaling up their utilization within these industries as Japan
does not currently provide any financial supports. As of MY 2023/24, Japan does not use "new"vegetable oils for biofuels on a commercial scale.
Soybean, Rapeseed and Sunflowerseed Oil
Epoxidized soybean oil serves as both a plasticizer and stabilizer in polyvinyl chloride plastics and iscommonly employed in food wraps. Additionally, soybean oils have application as natural esters invarious contexts. In the forecast for MY 2022/23, FAS/Tokyo anticipates that soybean oil consumption
for industrial purposes will gradually decrease to around 30,000 MT over the next two MYs, given its
comparatively less favorable pricing dynamics.
Canola oil has market application for industrial usage such as chemical manufacturing, paint production,
cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals. FAS/Tokyo projects that canola oil consumption for industrial purposes
will maintain 50,000 MT.
Sunflowerseed oil is utilized in cosmetic formulations and other industrial applications, but thedisruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strained supplies, prompting Japanese consumers
to shift to alternative oils. FAS/Tokyo estimates a decline in industrial consumption of sunflowerseed oil
to 1,000 MT in MY 2022/23 and then marginally increase to 2,000 MT in the upcoming years.
Palm Olein and Stearin Oil
Palm stearin oil, predominantly utilized as a non-edible bioenergy feedstock for power generation, hasseen a significant decline in its usage. The reliance of Japan's powerplants on palm stearin is contingent
upon high stearin prices, as illustrated in Figure 11. The recent surge in palm stearin prices since MY
2020/21 has led to a reduction in Japan's stearin consumption, rendering the fixed FIT payment of 24
yen/kWh unprofitable for power stations.

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Conversely, palm olein oil has application in the production of hygiene and cleaning products,
cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and lubricants.
With palm oil experiencing a marginal decrease in cost, FAS/Tokyo projects that total palm oil
industrial usage will remain steady at 105,000 MT over the next two MYs. FAS/Tokyo does not
anticipate any significant utilization of palm stearin oil for power generation unless the price drops to90,000 yen per MT or lower.
Figure 11. Japan’s Annual Palm Olein and Stearin Imports

Source: Japan Customs
Note: “e” indicates year-to-date estimation from October 2023 to February 2024.

As of 2024, Japanese companies do not embrace "new" vegetable oil as a feedstock for biodiesel andsustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. The country's biodiesel production remains minimal,
predominantly relying on a scant supply of used cooking oil (UCO). However, there are promisingdevelopments on the horizon. Cosmo Oil and JGC Holdings have announced intentions to commencecommercial production of ASTM D7566-compliant SAF by 2025, via the hydroprocessed esters andfatty acids (HEFA) process utilizing locally sourced UCO. This production is set to take place in Sakai,
Japan. Such an endeavor will be a significant milestone, establishing the inaugural domestic,
commercial SAF production facility in Japan. For details about biodiesel and SAF, see the Japan 2023
Biofuels Annual.
Feed UseFAS/Tokyo reports that Japanese feed manufacturers consistently utilize around 5,000 metric tons ofpalm oil for feed production, driven by a shortage of used cooking oil (UCO). With the surge in UCO
prices, Japan has ramped up UCO exports, notably to Singapore for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
production. Japanese feed millers have been substituting oil-rich corn with rice and wheat (see Japan27

Grain and Feed Annual), leading to an increased demand for oil in compound feed. It is anticipated thatfeed millers will continue to incorporate palm oil into compound feed over the next two MYs.

Trade
In MY 2022/23, imported edible vegetable oils accounted for approximately 37 percent of Japan’svegetable oil supply. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP) and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) will gradually eliminate Japan’stariffs on soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflowerseed oil. The U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA)
will eliminate import duties on crude vegetable oil products in line with CPTPP, but USJTA does not
apply to many refined vegetable oil products covered by CPTPP. Most of Japan’s imports of palm oil,coconut oil, palm kernel oil, and olive oil enter tariff-free due to bilateral EPAs with exporting countries(see Japan: CPTPP and EU Agreements May Reduce Demand For U.S. Oilseeds). For tariff treatment ofvegetable oils under USJTA, please see https://www.usdajapan.org/usjta/.
Soybean Oil
Imported soybean oil represents a small fraction of the soybean oil pool. In MY 2022/23, Japan
imported 6,670 MT of soybean oil, primarily from Taiwan. Some discount supermarket chains directlysell these imported soybean oils to price-sensitive consumers. Some U.S. companies ship specificallyprocessed soybean oil for industrial purposes. FAS/Tokyo projects soybean oil imports to remain stable
at 10,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Rapeseed Oil
In MY 2022/23, Japan imported 13,298 MT of rapeseed oil, with 66.3 percent originating from Canada.
With an expected increase in the domestic canola crush, FAS/Tokyo forecasts rapeseed oil imports will
decrease to around 10,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Palm OilIn MY 2022/23, Japan imported 660,160 MT of palm olein and stearin oil, marking a 2.4 percent
increase from the previous MY. The Malaysian market share jumped to 84.9 percent and the Indonesianshare dropped to 15.1 percent. Under the ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Agreement, Japan does not impose duty on palm oil from ASEAN member countries. FAS/Tokyo
projects palm oil imports to increase to 0.67 MMT in both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.
Sunflowerseed Oil
In MY 2022/23, Japanese imports of sunflowerseed oil dropped to 10,706 MT. Japan imported only 943
MT from Ukraine and zero from Russia. FAS/Tokyo anticipates Japanese imports of sunflowerseed oil
to gradually recover to 15,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and 18,000 MT in MY 2024/25.
Separately, Japan imported 3,509 MT of safflower seed oil in MY 2022/23. The United States was theleading supplier with a 73 percent share. Safflower seed and sunflowerseed oils share the same 6-digit
HS codes (1512.11 and 1512.99). High-oleic safflower seed oil is consumed as a high-end cooking oil;while linoleic-type safflower seed drying oil is used as paint oil. Under the USJTA, Japan allows tarifffree import of U.S. safflower crude oil that has an acidic value exceeding 0.6.

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Stocks
MAFF reported that soybean oil stocks were 18,297 MT at the beginning of MY 2022/23 and 28,045
MT at the start of MY 2023/24. MAFF reported canola oil stocks were 45,731 MT at the beginning of
MY 2022/23, and 26,744 MT at the start of MY 2023/24. Soybean oil and canola oil stocks haveremained at a high level (see Figure 12) as consumer demand has slowed. FAS/Tokyo projects soybean
oil stock to stay around 20,000 MT, and canola oil stock will reach around 30,000 MT as oil crushers
adjust their stock levels.
On the other hand, palm oil stocks have stayed very low since early 2021 as traders were consolidated(see Figure 12). MAFF reported palm oil stocks were 8,311 MT at the beginning of MY 2022/23 and
7,781 MT at the start of MY 2023/24. FAS/Tokyo projects palm oil stocks will remain around 10,000
MT over the next two MYs.
MAFF reports sunflowerseed oil beginning stocks at 905 MT in MY 2022/23 and dropped to 533 MT in
MY 2023/24 as sunflowerseed oil imports slowed. Due to supply shortages, FAS/Tokyo projects
sunflowerseed oil stocks will remain at low levels for the next two MYs.

Figure 12. Monthly Fluctuations in Crusher-held Oil Stocks

Source: MAFF

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