English Summary

Study of Basic Zoning Information Concerning Renewable Energies (FY2011)
The introduction of renewable energies is important not only as a countermeasure for
global warming but also from such viewpoints as establishing energy security,
developing an autonomous and scattered energy system and creating new industries
and jobs. For this reason, the Ministry of the Environment (MoE) conducted the Studyon the Potential for the Introduction of Renewable Energies (hereinafter referred to as
the “Potential Study”) in FY 2009 and FY 2010 to estimate the abundance as well as
introduction potential of various types of renewable energies (non-residential use of PVpower, wind power, small and medium-scale hydropower and geothermal power) andtheir possible introduction amount by different scenarios with a view to developing
basic data for the examination of viable measures to introduce and spread the use ofrenewable energies in the coming years.
The present work involved the refinement of the findings of the Potential Study in thepreceding two years, re-estimation of the data and renewal of the potential maps. It also
consolidated and made available basic zoning information concerning renewableenergies based on the outcomes of the Potential Study and other relevant information.
Furthermore, the potential to use PV power was estimated focusing on individualbuildings, etc.
1. Examination to Improve the Estimation Accuracy of the Possible Introduction
Amount by Scenario(1) Examination to Improve the Estimation Accuracy Concerning PV Power
Generation for Non-Residential Use
Sensitivity analysis based on the current cost level as well as various levels of theassumed FIT (Feed-in Tariff) purchase price was conducted after considering
demobilization cost, using the results of the Potential Study conducted in FY 2010 for
the purpose of reviewing the scenarios and re-estimating the possible introduction
amount by scenario. The results of this analysis indicate that when the solar cell systemcost is ¥350,000/kW, the possible introduction amount is 26 million kW based on a FIT
purchase price of ¥38/kWh or 44 million kW based on a FIT purchase price of ¥44/kWhS-5

for areas other than abandoned farmland. In the case of abandoned farmland, while thecommercial viability of development is lower because of the rent and transmission lineconstruction cost, the possible introduction amount is still approximately 36 million kW
based on a FIT purchase price of some ¥44/kWh. The estimation results are
summarised in Fig. 1.

Installed Capacity (million kW)

80

70

Public Buildings
Power Stations and Factories, etc.
Low Use or Unused Land（Other than Abandoned Farmland）

60

Abandoned Farmland

50

4030

20

100
Scenario１¥32/kWhFig. 1

Scenario２¥38/kWh

Scenario3¥44/kWh

Scenario４¥50/kWh

Introduction Potential（H22 Research,Level3）

Potential Introduction Amount by Scenario for PV Power Generation forNon-Residential Use(2)Examination to Improve the Estimation Accuracy Concerning Wind Power
GenerationIn regard to the FY 2010 Potential Study results, the width of the access road wasrevised (from 3.0 m to 5.5 m) for onshore wind power generation and the exclusion ofislands where no system connection is possible and other revisions were made foroffshore wind power generation after considering demobilization cost. As a result, thepossible introduction amount for onshore wind power generation is found to beapproximately 18 million kW based on a FIT purchase price of ¥15/kWh for a period of15 years and approximately 133 million kW based on a FIT purchase price of ¥20/kWh
for a period of 20 years. In the case of offshore wind power generation (bedded type),
hardly any possible introduction amount can be expected when the FIT purchase priceis ¥20/kWh. However, when the FIT purchase price is increased to ¥25/kWh, there is apossible introduction amount of approximately 19 million kW for a period of 15 years
and 62 million kW for a period of 20 years. For floating type offshore wind power
generation, introduction becomes possible at a FIT purchase price of around ¥22.5/kWh.
At a FIT purchase price of ¥30/kWh, the possible introduction amount is as large as 136
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million kW for a period of 15 years and 300 million kW for a period of 20 years. The
estimation results are summarised in Table 1. It must be noted that no environmental
impacts, etc. are taken into consideration when calculating the figures in Table 1.
Table 1 Possible Introduction Amount by Scenario for Wind Power Generation
Evaluation
Period15 Years

Reference:Introduction

Potential StudyFIT Purchase Price

Onshore Wind Power(million kW)

Offshore Wind Power

Offshore Wind Power

Bedded Type

Floating Type(million kW)(million kW)¥15.0/kWh17.68

not calculated

not calculated¥17.5/kWh53.60

not calculated

not calculated¥20.0/kWh

86.07

0.13

0

¥22.5/kWh

133.412.63

0¥25.0/kWh179.14

19.02

12.45

¥27.5/kWh202.41

49.34

42.50

¥30.0/kWh207.5692.21

135.77¥32.5/kWhnot calculated

137.56300.46¥35.0/kWhnot calculated

178.62300.46

Potential

in

FY2010282.94

1,572.62(3) Examination to Improve the Estimation Accuracy Concerning Small andMedium-Scale Hydropower Generation
The exclusion of the installed capacity of existing hydropower plans after considering
demobilization cost from the FY 2010 Potential Study results led to a substantial
reduction of the introduction potential for 1,000 kW or higher capacity plants. The
estimated possible introduction amount is 0.39 million kW based on a FIT purchaseprice of ¥15/kWh for a period of 15 years and 1.3 million kW based on a FIT purchaseprice of ¥20/kWh for a period of 20 years. The estimation results are summarised inTable 2.

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Table 2 Outline of Examination Results Concerning Small and Medium-Scale Hydropower
Generation in FY 2011
Rivers
Evaluation Period

FIT Purchase Price

Installed

Number ofCapacity(million kW)

15 Years

Reference: Possible Introduction Amount (for Rivers)by Scenario in the Potential Study in FY 2010

Sites

Installed Capacity(million kW)

Number of Sites¥15.0/kWh

0.39

83

0.90

¥17.5/kWh

0.63

167－

－

¥20.0/kWh

0.97

325

2.13492¥22.5/kWh

1.30

503－

－

¥25.0/kWh

1.62732－－¥27.5/kWh

1.93

1,012－－¥30.0/kWh2.30

1,389－－

13.98

21,703－－

Reference: Introduction Potential in FY 2010
Potential Study (excluding existing facilities)

139(4) Examination to Improve the Estimation Accuracy Concerning Geothermal Power
GenerationIn regard to the FY 2010 Potential Study results, the width of the access road wasrevised (from 3 m to 5.5 m) among other revisions after considering demobilization cost.
As a result, the possible introduction amount for geothermal power generation using
flash steam of 150°C or higher is 0.38 million kW based on a FIT purchase price of¥15/kWh for a period of 15 years or 5.3 million kW based on a FIT purchase price of¥20/kWh for a period of 20 years. In the case of binary power generation with atemperature of 120 ~ 150°C, the commercial viability is slim when the FIT purchaseprice is less than ¥40/kWh. The possible introduction amount is still very small at
40,000 kW even if a FIT purchase price of ¥50/kWh is maintained for a period of 20years. The estimation results are summarised in Fig. 2.

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8

Installed Capacity (million kW)

76Evaluation Period 15YearsEvaluation Period 20Years
Evaluation Period 40Years

543210¥15.0/kWhFig. 22.

¥17.5/kWh¥20.0/kWh¥22.5/kWh¥25.0/kWh¥27.5/kWh¥30.0/kWhIntroduction
Potential

Possible Introduction Amount by Scenario for Geothermal Power Generation (≥ 150°C)

Examination Concerning the Development and Transmission of Basic Zoning
Information

The permission to disclose on the Internet was obtained regarding the conditions whichmake prospective development impossible as these conditions affect the nationwide
abundance of wind power, small and medium-scale hydropower and geothermal powerand the introduction potential maps. Such basic zoning information was produced inPDF file format using 1 to 200,000 scale topographical maps (with a primary mesh sizeof approximately 80 km by 80 km). The sample images are shown in Fig. 3.

Fig. 3Sample PDF Images for Basic Zoning Information(Left: Wind Power; Right: Small and Medium-Scale Hydropower)

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3.

Introduction Potential Study for PV power generation Focusing on Individual
Buildings, etc.

Forty-six million polygons featuring individual buildings were extracted from housingmaps and were analysed using 500 m x 500 m meshes to estimate the introduction
potential for PV power generation. In addition, the possible introduction amounts undervarious scenarios of PV power generation were estimated.The distribution of thepossible introduction amount by scenario of PV power generation (Scenario 2) is shownin Fig. 4 as an example.

PV Capacity<1000kW/km2
1000－5000kW/km2
5000-7500kW/km2
7500-10000kW/km2>=10000kW/km2

Fig. 4

Distribution of Possible Introduction Amount by Scenario of PV Power Generation(Scenario 2)

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