GCOE Discussion Paper Series
Global COE Program

Human Behavior and Socioeconomic Dynamics
Discussion Paper No. 356

Is University Sports an Advertisement in the Higher Education
Market? An Analysis of the Hakone Long-Distance Relay Road
Race in Japan

Eiji Yamamura

January 2015

GCOE Secretariat
Graduate School of Economics
OSAKA UNIVERSITY
1-7 Machikaneyama, Toyonaka, Osaka, 560-0043, JapanIs university sports an advertisement in the higher education
market? An analysis of the Hakone long-distance relay roadrace in Japan
Eiji Yamamura (Seinan gakuin University)

Abstract. A university long-distance relay road race, the Hakone Ekiden, is widely
acknowledged as the most popular New Year’s sporting event in Japan. The event isheld immediately prior to the university application period in Japan. Using Japanesepanel data for 2001-2014, this study examined how the Hakone Ekiden race influences
the behavior of students preparing for university entrance examinations. The major
finding is that the number of applicants for a university is 3% larger when the university
participated in the race than when it did not. Further, universities finishing in the top
three in the race saw a 4% increase in the number of applicants compared with otheruniversities that participated in the race. A 1% increase in the television viewing rate forthe race led to a 1% increase in the number of applicants for the universities
participating in the race. It follows that advertising universities on television would be
effective in the university market.

Keywords: long-distance relay road race (ekiden), Japan, university market,
advertisement, television.
JEL classification: L83; L82; I 29; M37

1

1. Introduction
In the process of economic development, demand for highly educated people
increases. This, in turn, causes demand for higher education to grow, which may
influence the structure of the education market. In response to the growth in demand for
educated people, the number of higher education institutions increases (Kwoka and
Synder 2004). It becomes important to analyze the higher education market. From theviewpoint of economics and industrial organization, the performance and strategy ofhigher education institutions have been examined, especially in developed countries(e.g., Getz et al., 1991; Siegfied 2004; Winston 2004; Getz and Siegfied 2004, Warning2004).1
Most developed countries are thought to have entered an age of declining birthrates
and aging populations. This inevitably has influenced the education market because of
the decrease in potential demand. Furthermore, a wave of globalization has led highschool students to consider studying abroad. This effect of globalization appears to belarger for universities in Japan than in other developed countries because the university
market is more closed to students from other countries. However, for universities inJapan recently, universities in the U.S. and European countries have become rivals in
attracting students. Accordingly, competitive pressure in the higher education market
has increased in Japan. This gives universities an incentive to reform to survive in themarket (Kimura 2012). A number of researchers have accepted the importance ofadvertising to firm performance (e.g., Porter 1976; Esposito et al., 1990; Butler 1991;
Nakao 1993; Rogers and Tokle 1995; Willis and Rogers 1998). This holds also true forhigher education institutions such as universities. Advertising is an important factor inmanaging a university. Among the media, television has a great effect on consumer
behavior (Notta and Oustapassidis 2001).2 This paper deals with the influence of themedia on private university applicants under the increasing competitive pressure in theuniversity market in Japan.3
1

The effect of board composition has been investigated (Dubois et al. 2009; Brown 2014).
In modern life, Internet advertising plays a key role (Goldfarb and Tremblay 2014; Lewis and Reiley2014). However, the importance of television is thought to persist.
3
Agasisti and Pohl found that German public universities are more efficient than Italian public
universities. However, private universities are thought to respond to competitive pressure.
22

University applicants can obtain various types of information concerning the qualityof education and academic research. In addition, universities’ participation in sporting
events increases their recognition in society, especially if a university is successful inmajor and popular sports.4 Universities’ performance and success are thought to exert
advertising effects (Bremmer and Kesserling 1993). “Athletic events provide
opportunities for large numbers of prospective students and their parents—some ofwhom may have only a passing interest in the athletic event—to visit campuses theymight not otherwise visit” (Goff 2004, p. 72).5
Since 1987, a university long-distance relay road race, the Hakone Ekiden, has beenbroadcasted throughout Japan every year on January 2 and 3, when most Japanese areenjoying the New Year holiday. The race is broadcasted for more than 10 hours. The
race has become widely recognized as a special event on the New Year holiday, mainly
because the race has been publicized by the mass media, especially television.
Furthermore, some of the universities that have participated in the race are well-known
and distinguished universities that attract students from all over the country. The
Hakone Ekiden race is held immediately before the university application period;
entrance examinations for private universities are ordinarily held starting in the
beginning of February in Japan. Hence, a university’s participation in the Hakone
Ekiden is thought to increase the number of applicants not only from Tokyo and its
outskirts but also from other regions (Mixton and Hsing 1994).6 Using a panel data set,
this paper aims to assess the extent to which participation in the Hakone Ekiden race,
finish ranking, and the television viewing rate influence the number of university
applicants.
The structure of the paper is as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of theuniversity market in Japan and the Hakone Ekiden race. Section 3 explains the data andstatistical method used in this paper. Section 4 reports the estimation results and theirinterpretation. Section 5 provides the conclusion of the paper.
4

Even though university athletes are amateurs, the distinguished star players could earn $600,000 or
more per year if they were paid market-based salaries (Brown 1993).
5
Various effects of university sports have been investigated thus far (e.g., McCormick and Tinsley 1987;
Tucker and Amato 1993, Baade and Sundberg 1996).
6
An advertising effect on purchase is observed to be large for older people (Lewis and Randall 2014).
Therefore, viewing the race causes graduates of the participating universities to increase their attachment
to the universities. Then, these graduates encourage their children to apply for admission to theuniversities when they are preparing for the entrance examination.

3

2. The Japanese setting
2.1. Overview of the higher education market in Japan.

Japan has experienced rapid economic development, so demand for higher educationis thought to increase. Figure 1, illustrating the number of universities in Japan between
1949 and 2014, suggests a constant increase in the number of universities. In contrast,
as demonstrated in Figure 2, the number of high school students has generally increased
from 1949 to 1990 and then decreased until 2014. In 2014, the number of universities
was about 800, approximately four times larger than the number in 1949. The number ofhigh school students was about 55,000 at its peak in 1990 and decreased to 34,000 in
2014. Based on the information shown in Figures 1 and 2, it follows that the number ofuniversities has increased while the population of young people decreased after 1990.
Inevitably, the competitive pressure in the higher education market increased in Japanafter 1990.7 For about 60% of universities, in comparison with 2011, the profit-and-loss
account worsened in 2012. 8 The decrease in the number of entrance examination
applicants led to a decrease in revenues from entrance examination fees.9 Competitive
pressure to attract students causes educational fees to decrease, which in turn worsens
the profit-and-loss accounts. In particular, universities concentrated in Tokyo and its
outskirts were exposed to increasing competitive pressure.
Advertising is an important strategy to survive in the university market. Some major
university sports have been broadcast and are useful for advertising.10 Above all, the7

In Japan, law schools have also faced high competitive pressure (Yamamura 2011). Some law schools
have already exited from the market.
8
December 23, 2013, Nihon Keizai Newspaper.
9
March 27, 2014, Nihon Keizai Newspaper.
10
In Japan, high school baseball games have been broadcasted all over Japan, influencing the Japanesehappiness level (Yamamura 2014).

4

Hakone Ekiden race is thought to make a great contribution to increases in the numberof entrance examination applicants and thus to increases in revenue from entrance
examination fees, because the race is held directly before the university application
period.

2.2. Overview of the Hakone Ekiden.
In a period when competitive pressure has increased, the Hakone Ekiden race has
rapidly become popular among Japanese mainly because of the Japan-wide television
broadcasting of the race. Figure 3, demonstrating the television viewing rate of the race,indicates that the rate is consistently higher than 25% of the population. As indicated in
the Appendix, universities that have traditionally participated in the race, such as
Waseda, Keio, Meiji, Hosei, and Chuo, have attracted students from all over Japan.
Hence, graduates of these universities live not only in Tokyo and its outskirts but also inother regions. The television broadcast of the Hakone Ekiden race seems to be enjoyedby graduates of the participating universities who live across Japan. This appears toincrease the viewing rate, although the participating universities are limited to thoselocated in Tokyo and its outskirts. The high viewing rate indicates that the Hakone
Ekiden race is a popular sporting event in Japan. This is the reason that this paper
focuses on the effect of television, although the Hakone race is covered in various othermedia, such as newspapers and the Internet.
Only universities located in Tokyo and its outskirts (the Kanto region) can participate
in the Hakone Ekiden race, so the race began as a local amateur sporting event. The first
Hakone Ekiden race was held in 1920. Only four universities, Waseda, Keio, Meiji, and5

Tokyo-Shihan, participated in the first.11 The number of universities participating in therace has increased with the development of the race. Now, 20 universities participate in
the race. A university must rank among the top 10 finishers of the Hakone Ekiden racein the previous year to gain the right to be seeded. Otherwise, a university must rank
among the top nine finishers in the elimination race. In addition, there is a quota for ateam consisting of runners belonging to various universities that were dropped in theelimination race. In total, 20 university teams can participate in the race.
On January 2 and 3, the race is broadcast for more than 10 hours. The distancecovered by the runners is approximately 2,017 km, and the distance is divided into 10
sections. In each section, hence, a runner runs for an average of about 21 km. A teamconsists of ten runners of varying degrees of skill and speed. Therefore, even if ninerunners perform well, the last runner’s poor performance may result in a low teamranking. If a runner withdraws from the race, his team is disqualified and thus loses theopportunity to be seeded in the following year’s race. Inevitably, each runner shoulders
not only their individual pride but also the honor of his university. This greatly
motivates the runners to fulfill the duty to stay the course even when they are far fromcompleting their section. Naturally, there are various dramatic scenes during the race.
Such scenes are entertaining for viewers, leading the viewing rate to increase.
Further, during the race, runners wear shirts with the name of their university.
Accordingly, viewers of the race see the university names and recognize them. In
particular, runners in the top group are constantly featured on television. Sportscommentators give a running commentary on the state of the race and introduce theteams and the characteristics of the universities, such as their history and famous
11

The Haokne Ekiden started in 1920. Source is the official site of the Hakone Ekiden race:
http://www.hakone-ekiden.jp/index.php (accessed January 11, 2015).

6

graduates. Naturally, the program provides advertising for the university. In fact,
universities consider it important to participate in the race for advertising purposes(Ikushima 2011). Hence, the Hakone Ekiden race is regarded not only as an amateur
sporting event but also as a means of advertising universities to prosperous students.

3. Estimated model and interpretation of results
3.1. Data
The studied period of the data is 2001–2014, after the Hakone Ekiden became apopular sporting event. During the period, if a team university participated in the race atleast once, its university is included in the sample. The number of universities is 26, andtheir information is presented in the Appendix. All of the universities are private.
Accordingly, these universities have a great motivation to gain revenues. They include
some distinguished universities, such as Waseda, Meiji, Chuo, and Hosei. These
universities were established before 1900 and have a very large number of students. The
average number of examinees for these universities is greater than 70,000. Theirstudents come from all parts of Japan. Further, a huge number of graduates is thought tolive all over Japan. It seems plausible that these graduates encourage their children to
apply to their old universities. However, new universities such as Jobu, Heisei-Kokusai,
and Chuogakuin are very small. The average number of examinees is under 1,000 per
year. In summary, in the universities included in the sample, there is wide variation in
their scale and characteristics. Panel data are constructed for examination. Data on the
Hakone Ekiden are sourced from the website of the Hakone Ekiden race.12 Other data
used in this paper are sourced from Asahi Shimbun (2001–2014).
Table 1 includes variable definitions, means, standard deviations, and maximum and12

http://www.hakone-ekiden.jp/index.php (accessed January 11, 2015).

7

minimum values. The key variable is Examinee, the number of examinees for eachdepartment at the universities. Figure 4 shows the histogram of Examinee, suggestingthat there is a skew toward a small number and a wide variation of its scale. As
indicated in Table 1, the mean value of Race is 0.78, indicating that 78% of the sample
consists of university departments participating in the Hakone Ekiden race. Concerning
Deviation, to reflect the difficulty of passing the entrance examination, its mean value is54.9, which is regarded as roughly the middle-ranking group. However, its maximum
value is 69, meaning that the top rank department in Japan. In contrast, its minimum
value is 43, indicating the bottom rank. Therefore, there is wide variation in the quality
and academic rank of the universities participating in the race. With respect to location,even in the same universities, the locations of departments may differ. The data used inthis paper distinguish such differences within a university because the data concern
departments rather than universities. The mean value of Tokyo is 0.84, meaning that
84% of university departments are located in Tokyo.
In the sample, even for the same university, there may be data for years when it
participated in the race and for years when it did not participate. Table 2 shows the meandifference test of Examinee between the groups participating in the race and those notparticipating in it. It is clear that the mean of Examinee is significantly larger, by 1,000,
in participation years than that in non-participation years. This indicates thatparticipating in the Hakone race increases Examinee. Furthermore, the sample race
participants are divided into winners of the first to third prizes and other rankings.
Examinee for the prizes is significantly larger, by 0.8 thousand, than for others. In
addition, Figure 5 shows that the higher the rank achieved in the Hakone race is, thelarger the number of examinees is. Table 2 and Figure 5 indicate that the name of theuniversity is on the air more, resulting in a larger figure for Examinee. Figure 6 shows
the positive relation between the viewing rate of the Hakone race and Examinee,
meaning that advertising through television plays a role in the increasing number ofentrance examination applicants for the universities participating in the race.
However, in Table 2 and Figures 5 and 6, various other factors are not considered.
For closer examination by considering other factors, the regression estimations are
conducted in the next part of this paper.

8

3.2. Function form
To examine the arguments in the previous section, the estimated function takes thefollowing form:

Ln(Examinee)

ikt=α0+α1Raceit+α2Ln(Deviation)ikt+α3Ln(Intake)ikt+

4Ln(Professor)ikt + 5SLn(Cost)ikt + νi +ek+ ωit, ikt
where Examinees represents the number of applicants for university i’s k department inyear t, and  represents the regression parameters. As demonstrated in Figure 4, there is
wide variation in Examinees. Then, the log of Examinees is used to reduce it. To control
for the time-invariant features of universities represented as νi, dummy variables foruniversities are included in the model. Further, the number of students is thought to vary
widely by department. Therefore, with the aim of controlling for the department’s
features, represented as ek, dummy variables for departments are included in the model.
The key independent variable is a dummy for participating in the Hakone Ekiden
race (Race). As discussed earlier, it is thought to be an advertising effect of participatingin the race. Therefore, I expect Race to have a positive sign. Concerning control
variables, the degree of difficulty of entering the university department is ordinarily
measured by the deviation values in Japan.13 The higher the value is, the more difficult
it is to pass the entrance examination. Therefore, Ln (Deviation) is included. The
number of examination applicants seems to be larger for the larger department. The
scale of the university departments is captured by including the log of intake quotas andnumber of professors. The cost of education fees should be taken into account, so Ln(cost) is included. The location of the university appears to be an important factor to
attract students, so universities participating in the race are roughly divided into thoselocated in Tokyo and those located in its outskirts. To consider for differences inlocation, a dummy for Tokyo, Tokyo, is included.
It is important to explore not only the advertising effect of participating in the raceon the number of university applicants but also the effects of rankings and the viewing
rate of the race. Ordinarily, the top team is constantly featured on the air. In addition,
13

The deviation value is called hensachi in Japanese.

9sports news through other media concentrate on the drama of the contest. Hence, theteams dominating the top ranks of the race are expected to gain an advantage inappealing and advertising to students with an examination imminent as well as theirparents. Furthermore, it seems plausible that the higher the viewing rate is, the larger theadvertising effect is. However, these factors might only influence the outcome foruniversities participating in the race. To examine these effects, the Heckman Tobit isappropriate to control for the selection bias and thus is used in this paper. In the firststage of the estimation, a dummy for participating in the race is the dependent variable.
The observations are the department-level data for each university. However, thedeterminants of participating in the race are university-level characteristics rather thandepartment-level ones because the effects of participating in the race are not limited tosome departments. A larger number of university students and staff members can enjoy
the race when a larger university’s team participates in the race. Hence, the positiveeffects of participating in the race are larger for the larger universities because of thescale economy. Naturally, a larger university has a greater incentive to invest in
bolstering the team to participate in the race. To capture the scale of a university, thetotal intake quota (TIntake) and number of departments (TDepartment) for a university
are used in the first stage. These variables are expected to have positive signs. In thesecond stage, the key variables are the viewing rate of the race (View) and the inverse of
the log of the rank in the race (Rank). In addition to Rank, a dummy variable foruniversity winning the first, second, or third prize (Top 3) is used as an alternative
measure to capture the impact of the ranking in the race. Based on the argument about
the impact of the results of the race discussed above, the anticipated sign of thecoefficients of View and Rank is positive. As control variables, the set of variables usedin the robust estimation is also used in the second stage.

4. Results
Table 2 exhibits the results of the robust regression estimation. As for the key variable,
the coefficient of Race yields the expected positive sign and is statistically significant inall columns. Hence, participating the race increases Examinee. Further, its absolute

10value is 0.03, which means that number of entrance examination applicants increases by
3% when a university participates in the race compared with when it does notparticipate. Concerning control variables, a significant positive sign for Ln (Deviation)
is observed in all columns. Hence, the more difficult it is to pass the examination, thelarger Examinee is. Demand for higher-quality education is larger if the other factors areequal. However, the number of intakes for a university department does not vary with
the number of examinees. In the case of private universities, the examination dates
differ by department. Further, ordinarily, the examination date varies by university.
Hence, students have other chances even when they cannot be admitted to distinguishedand high-level universities. Therefore, students have many opportunities to takeentrance examinations for various departments at various universities. It seems
appropriate to assume that the difficulty of the entrance examination is positively related
to the quality of the university. For private universities, one can apply to many
universities in a year and thus be motivated to apply to high-quality university eventhough it is difficult to be accepted. The estimation results of Ln (Deviation) reflect thisfact. The sign of the coefficient of Ln (Intake) is positive and statistically significant at
the 1% level in all estimations. Consistent with expectations, a large intake quota is
positively related to the number of applicants. Ln (Cost) has a positive sign and is
statistically significant at the 1% level. This is inconsistent with expectations. In myinterpretation, the cost of a university may reflect its quality because competitive
pressure in the market causes unpopular universities to reduce their education fees.
Therefore, the result of Cost is interpreted as suggesting a positive relation between
quality of a university and the demand for it. Tokyo has a positive sign and is
statistically significant at the 1% level in all columns. It is more convenient to attend auniversity in Tokyo than one in a suburban area. Therefore, the number of applicants islarger for universities located in Tokyo. The trend has a significant negative sign,reflecting the decrease in the size of the young population applying to universities.
Table 4 presents the results of the Heckman Tobit estimation. To assess the impact of
the ranking in the race, Rank is incorporated, and its results are presented in columns
1–3. In an alternative model, instead of Rank, Top3 is included, and its results arereported in columns 4–6. In the results of the first stage, TIntake has a positive sign andis statistically significant at the 1% level in all columns. The coefficient of TDepartment
11

also shows a positive sign, despite being statistically insignificant. Overall, the results ofthe first stage are in line with the expectation that the larger universities have a greater
incentive to participate in the race. Let us turn now to the results of the second stage.
The results for the control variables are almost equivalent to those shown in Table 3.
Hence, I focus on the results for the key variables. As consistent with the expectation,
the sign of View is positive and statistically significant in all columns. This indicates thatthe race has an advertising effect because a high viewing rate increases the number ofapplicants for universities participating in the race. The absolute value of the coefficientof View is 0.01, implying that a 1% increase in the viewing rate results in a 1% increasein the number of university applicants. The coefficient of Rank has the expected positive
sign and is statistically significant in columns 1–3. Furthermore, in alternative
estimations, the coefficient of Top3 has the expected positive sign and is statisticallysignificant in columns 4–6. The absolute value of the coefficient of Top3 is 0.04,
indicating that the number of applicants for the universities in the top three rankings islarger by 4% than that of other universities participating in the race.
From the estimation results, I derived the notion that the universities being covered
more frequently on the air give students or their parents a greater motivation to apply
for these universities. Despite the benefits of advertising through university sports, it isunclear whether investing in sports plays a critical role on survival in the university
market. If the cost of bolstering sports is larger than its benefit, university administrators
should not use the university teams as a means of advertising. When there is a larger
number of departments and the intake quota is large, the advertising effect is larger. The
average examination fee is around 30,000 yen ($254) for Japan universities. As shownin the Appendix, for a large university such as Waseda or Meiji, the number of
examinees is approximately 100,000. Hence, participating in the Hakone Ekiden race
leads to a 3% increase in the number of examinees, leading to an increase of 3,000
examinees. This results in an increase in examination revenues is about 90 million yen($0.76 million). In contrast, for a small university such as Jobu or Chuogakuin, thenumber of examinees is approximately 0.50 thousand. The Hakone Ekiden leads to anincrease of 15 examinees. This, in turn, yields only 450,000 yen ($3,800). That is, it isimportant for university administrators to consider the scale of the university.
Furthermore, another critical point is the cost of participating in the race, though the12cost has not been analyzed in this paper. In bolstering a team, there are various costs.
For instance, first, it is necessary to recruit new, promising runners to be competitive.
Therefore, supervisors should scout for able high school runners with dominant records.
A talented high school athlete may be able to enter a distinguished university even if hisacademic ability is lower than the level required to pass the entrance examination. Thus,
able runners are more likely to enter a distinguished university such as Waseda thananother university because of branding, if other factors are equal. Hence, lessdistinguished universities bear additional costs, such as scholarships, to attract able
runners. Furthermore, the universities that frequently participate in the Hakone race canprovide ideal training facilities and have the expertise to improve the runners’ ability.
Hence, a team of a university that has not yet participated in the Hakone race must bear
additional costs to put together a team. From a cost-benefit viewpoint, it is more
effective and useful for a distinguished university with experience in the Hakone race to
use it as advertising to improve its competitiveness in the higher education market.

5. Conclusion
The decrease in the young population and increase of the number of universities
have caused the higher education market to become increasingly competitive in Japan.
In response, universities have attempted to improve quality of education and increase
advertising. For instance, it is effective to broadcast the name of a university. However,the cost to buy a great deal of advertising on television is too high from the cost-benefit
viewpoint. The Hakone Ekiden race is held every year at the New Year holidays. The
race is broadcasted for 10 hours across Japan. Its viewing rate is very high, and it isheld just before university entrance examinations are held, mainly in February.
Participation in the race is considered effective advertising. Furthermore, theuniversities do not pay a fee to be introduced on the air if their teams survive theelimination race.
This paper used panel data from 2001–2014 to investigate how and the extent towhich the Hakone Ekiden race influences exerts an impact on the number of entrance
examination applicants. The regression analysis found that (1) the number of university
applicants is 3% larger when the university participated in the race than when it did not,13

(2) among universities participating in the race, a top three ranking in the raceincreased the number of applicants by 4%, (3) a 1% increase in the television viewing
rate for the race led to a 1% increase in the number of applicants for a university
participating in the race. It follows that advertising a university through popular
university sports is effective in increasing the number of applicants and, in turn,revenues from entrance examination fees.

14References
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University Library of Munich, Germany.

17

Figure 1. Number of universities in Japan

Source: http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?bid=000001015843 (accessed January 11,
2015)

18

Figure 2. Number of high school students in Japan

Source: http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?bid=000001015843 (accessed January 11,
2015)

19

Figure 3. Television viewing rate of the Hakone race

Source: Website of Video Research Ltd.,
http://www.videor.co.jp/data/ratedata/program/04hakone.htm (accessed September 29, 2014).

20

.1
0

.05

Density.15.2

Figure 4. Histogram of examinees

0

5

10
examinees

21

15

20

Figure 5. Relation between the rank of the Hakone race and the number of examiness forselected universities.

22

Figure 6. Relation between the viewing rate and the number of examiness for selected
universities.

23

Table 1. Definition of variables and descriptive statistics
Definitions
Mean
S.d.
Examinee
Number of examinees (thousands).
4.62
4.03
Race
View
Rank
Top3
Deviation

IntakeProfessor
Cost
Tokyo
Trend
TIntake
TDepartment

Min
0.03

Max
20.5

Takes 1 if the university is selectedto participate in the Hokone race;otherwise 0
Television viewing rate for the
Hakone race (average rate
between the first and second day)Inverse of logarithm of rank in the
Hakone race
1/ln (rank)
Takes 1 if the university wins first,
second, or third prize in the
Hokone race; otherwise 0
Deviation value indicating one's
academic level in relation to acertain standard (Asahi, various
years)
Numberofintakequotas(thousands)
Number of professors

0.78

---

0

1

27.4

1.08

30.4

25.9

0.54

0.27

1.44

0.32

0.13

---

0

1

54.9

6.07

43

69

0.04

2.06

67.7

53.7

4

475

Cost to enter a university for the
first year (thousands in yen)Takes 1 if the campus is located inTokyo; otherwise 0Time trend

1619

1590

970

14200

0.84

---

0

1

---

---

---

---

Total intake quota for a university(aggregated department intake
quotas, in (thousands)
Number of departments in theuniversity

4.94

3.41

0.24

13.78

8.73

4.27

1

20

0.53 3.55

Note: Dummy variable takes 1 or 0; therefore, its mean value can be interpreted as suggesting
the rate of those who chose 1.

24

Table 2. Mean difference test of number of examinees and intake quotas.
Full sample (2272)
Selected for the
Hakone race
OthersExaminees
4.8
3.8

T-values
4.99***

Sample of universities
selected for the Hakone race
(1,178)Winners of the firstto third prizes
OthersExaminees

5.5

4.7

T-values
2.99***

Notes: *** indicates significance at the 1% level. The unit for examinees and intakes is thethousands. The number in parentheses is the number of observations.

25

Table 3. Estimation results of robust regression model.
(1)
(2)

Race

(3)

0.03*
(1.73)
4.30***(13.7)

0.03*(1.91)
4.10***(12.4)

0.03*(1.78)
4.12***(12.6)

Ln (Intake)

0.85***(27.4)

0.85***(27.1)

0.85***(34.0)Ln (Professor)-0.004(-0.15)-0.001(-0.01)

Ln( Cost)

0.37***(4.64)

Tokyo

1.57***(15.4)

2.07***(15.5)

2.07***(15.4)

Trend-0.004**(-2.46)-0.003**(-2.30)-0.003**(-2.26)

Constant
R-squares-14.2***(-3.75)0.93-9.20**(-2.57)0.93-9.69***(-2.75)
0.93

Observations

2,259

2,260

2,272

Ln (Deviation)

Note: Values in parentheses are z values. Dummies for universities and dummies for departments areincluded, but the results are not reported. *, **, and *** indicate significance at the 10%, 5%, and
1% levels, respectively.

26

Table 4. Estimation results of the Heckman Tobit model.
(1)
(2)
(3)

View
Rank

0.01**(2.06)
0.06**(2.01)

0.01**(2.09)
0.06**(2.05)

0.01**(2.14)
0.06**(2.08)

Top 3

(4)

(5)

(6)

0.01**(2.07)

0.01**(2.08)

0.01**(2.15)

0.04*(1.88)

0.04*(1.92)

0.04**(1.99)Ln (Deviation)

4.23***(8.18)

4.21***(8.26)

4.30***(8.38)

4.33***(8.50)

4.31***(8.60)

4.41***(8.80)

Ln (Intake)

0.75***(8.28)

0.75***(8.39)

0.77***(11.3)

0.73***(8.84)

0.73***(8.95)

0.75***(12.2)Ln (Professor)

0.03(0.72)

0.03(0.73)

0.03(0.86)

0.03(0.86)Ln( Cost)

0.09(0.69)

Tokyo

1.10***(7.39)

1.11***(7.61)

1.09***(7.55)

1.10***(7.54)

1.11***(7.74)

1.09***(7.69)

Trend-0.001(-0.56)-0.001(-0.58)-0.002(-0.85)-0.001(-0.30)-0.001(-0.32)-0.001(-0.62)

Constant-14.4**(-2.40)-14.4**(-2.40)-12.1**(-2.20)-17.3***(-5.61)-16.4***(-8.42)-16.8**(-8.91)

0.11***(5.81)
0.001(0.06)
0.16**(2.47)-1,5880.11***(5.81)
0.001(0.06)
0.16**(2.47)-1,5890.11***(5.77)
0.002(0.11)
0.16**(2.45)-1,5950.11***(5.41)
0.004(0.41)
0.21***(3.22)-1,6850.11***(5.41)
0.005(0.41)
0.21***(3.22)-1,6850.11***(5.38)
0.006(0.45)
0.21***(3.19)-1,6910.05(0.43)First stage
TIntake
TDepartment
ConstantLog
pseudolikelihoodObservations
2,280
2,280
2,291
2,280
2,280
2,291
Note: Values in parentheses are z values calculated using robust standard errors. Dummies foruniversities and dummies for departments are included, but the results are not reported. *, **, and*** indicate significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.

27

Appendix.

Name

Number ofentrees(2001-2014)

Averagenumber of
examinees(thousands)

Total intake
quota(thousands)

1 Aoyama
652.5
2 Asia9
10.7
3 Kanagawa
13
27.6
4 Kanto3
11.0
5 Kokugakuin
8
19.5
6 Kokushikan
7
16.0
7 Kamazawa
14
30.9
8 Juntendo
12
9.9
9 Josai
11
4.8
10 Jobu
6
0.5
11 Senshu
1032.1
12 Daito
12
14.7
13 Takushoku
7
7.2
14 Chuogakuin
120.5
15 Chuo14
74.0
16 Teikyo
1230.3
17 Tokai13
52.9
18 Tokyonogyo
830.7
19 Toyo12
67.5
20 Nihon-taiku
14
3.5
21 Nihon
13
86.1
22 Heisei-kokusai
1
0.1
23 Hosei11
85.4
24 Meiji
9104.2
25 Yamanashi
140.7
26 Waseda
1499.0
Note: Total intake quotas and number of departments in 2014.

28

3.7
1.3
4.2
2.6
2.1
2.8
3.1
0.8
1.7
0.3
3.7
2.6
2.1
0.7
5.5
5.1
6.7
2.4
5.4
1.4
13.8
0.3
6.4
6.7
0.9
8.8

Number of
departments
9
4
7
7
5
7
7
4
5
2
7
8
5
2
6
10
18
5
11
3
14
1
15
10
4
13