DIPLOMACY
Vol.77, Jan./ Feb. 2023

Contents of Features

FOCUS◎One year after the invasion, the war in Ukraine without prospects
84

What did Russian invasion of Ukraine ask of Europe?

94

A bottleneck of isolated Russian diplomacy

100

Why is Ukraine’s morale not faltering?

104

To what extent will the US support Ukraine?

Mutual distrust between Russia and European countries is deeply rooted. This article considers the present and future of theEuropean international order.
Atsuko Higashino (University of Tsukuba)
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's relations with the former Soviet Union countries as well as the West have weakened,but it has deepened its ties with China, North Korea and Iran.
Yoko Hirose (Keio University)
Behind the Ukrainian resistance is the perception that the war with Russia has been going on ever since the occupation ofCrimea. Reporting from Kiev.
Takashi Hirano (Ukrinform)
The US Congress is willing to support Ukraine, but public opinion cannot be ignored. This article focuses on the Congress andthe legislative process.
Mieko Nakabayashi (Waseda University)

TREND 2023
110

Undercurrents of the coup plot and the ideals and realities of German society

118

The end of China's Zero-Covid Policy and the 'White Paper Protests'

124

Taiwanese local elections: DPP's defeat and the composition of the next presidential election

128

Iran: the people's struggle for freedom

134

The London Convention and Protocol and the 'ALPS treated water' at Fukushima nuclear
power plant

Current judges and former military and police officers participated in the coup plot uncovered in Germany at the end of 2022.
This article explores the divisions in German society that formed the background to this.
Yuichi Morii (The University of Tokyo)
China's Zero-Covid Policy was not the result of the 'White Paper Protests'. However, discrepancies between the centre and theprovinces have become apparent, and the slowdown in the Chinese economy has shaken the 'social contract' between thepeople and the Communist Party.
Toshiya Tsugami (Japan Institute of International Affairs)
After a period of stable governance, the DPP is experiencing a 'loosening'. This article looks at the political situation in therun-up to the presidential election in a year's time, considering movements of the KMT and third forces.
Tadahiro Ishihara (National Chengchi University)
Protest movements by the people are spreading in Iran. Behind this is a distrust of the rigid political system.
Sachi Takanashi (JIME Center, Institute of Energy Economics)

The discharge of treated water from the Fukushima plant into the ocean is due to take place this year. There is intense debatewith South Korea and environmental groups.
Akiko Okamatsu (Hosei University)

140

In Memoriam: Jiang Zemin, the former Chinese president
Sakutaro Tanino (Former Ambassador to China)

Special Feature:Shifting Security Strategies
6Special Interview: G7 Hiroshima Summit
The Importance of the Rule of Law: Japanese Diplomacy in 2023
Yoshimasa Hayashi (Foreign Minister) and Hiroshi Nakanishi (Kyoto University)

14

Round table:Japan faces challenges: Deterrence and Dialogue in Northeast Asia
The security environment surrounding Japan is deteriorating. China has the upper hand in conventional forces, and North
Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons. Participants consider Japan's determination.
Yasuyo Sakata (Kanda University of International Studies), Yasuyuki Sugiura (National Institute for Defense Studies), Masashi
Murano (Hudson Institute)

21 Determination to protect the rule-based international orderJapan’s new National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program were announced onDecember 16. A noteworthy aspect of the documents is that they regard defence as complementary to 'protection ofthe rule-based international order'.
Matake Kamiya (National Defense Academy)

34 The US-Japan alliance will be further deepened and expanded

The process of revising Japan's three security documents is closely linked to the revision of the US National Security Strategy
and the National Defense Strategy.
Yuki Tatsumi (Stimson Center)

40

Four obstacles to US-Japan cooperation

46

NATO's New Strategic Concept and the Indo-Pacific52

The US-Japan-South Korea partnership revived with the cause of the 'Indo-Pacific'

58

North Korea: nuclear weapons development and internal political tightening continue

64

India's diplomacy troubled by China: Will traditional balanced diplomacy change?

70

Advanced technology protection in cyber security: Active Cyber Defense

74

Economic security and Japanese companies' business with China

Both the US and Japan are concerned about China's behaviour and place a high priority on the Indo-Pacific region. However,there are differences between the two countries regarding specific measures to be taken.
Zack Cooper（American Enterprise Institute）
NATO's new strategic concept established 'forward defence'. On the other hand, what will happen to the Indo-Pacific strategy
which sees China as a 'challenge'?
Michito Tsuruoka (Keio University)
The cooperation among the US, Japan and South Korea has accelerated again in the areas of joint military drills, information
sharing and economic security. What are the factors behind this?
Tomonori Ishida (National Institute for Defense Studies)
Kim Jong-un's regime aims to gain nuclear power' status by developing nuclear weapons and ICBMs. At the same time, he isattempting to tighten up internal politics.
Atsuhito Isozaki (Keio University)
Indian diplomacy has concerns with China on many fronts. Because of China's willingness to change the status quo, India ischanging the style of diplomacy.
Jagannath Panda (Institute for Security and Development Policy)
Measures to counter cyber-attacks are evolving towards ACD, which aims to deter by imposing technical, economic andprosecution costs. What are the challenges to full-scale introduction in Japan?
Jun Osawa (Nakasone Peace Institute)
As the US and China are at loggerheads over trade in sensitive technologies, how will the restrictions described in the three
security documents implemented? How will China react to the restrictions?
Manabu Takamisawa (Japan-China Economis Association)