THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT

Plummeting costs of solar, wind, and batteries canaccelerate Japan’s clean and independent electricity futureAuthors
Kenji Shiraishi1,2, Won Young Park1, Nikit Abhyankar1,2,Umed Paliwal1,2, Nina Khanna1, Toru Morotomi3, Jiang Lin1,2*,
and Amol Phadke1,2*
1 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2 University of California, Berkeley
3 Kyoto University

LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORYFounded in 1931 on the belief thatthe biggest scientific challenges are
best addressed by teams, Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory and its
scientists have been recognized with
16 Nobel Prizes. Today, Berkeley Lab
researchers develop sustainableenergy and environmental solutions,create useful new materials, advancethe frontiers of computing, and probe
the mysteries of life, matter, and theuniverse. Scientists from around theworld rely on the Labʼs facilities fortheir own discovery science.

3

Global Energy Crisis Poses Security Challenges andClean Energy Opportunities for Japan••

Japan depends on foreign fossil fuel imports for 90% of its primary energy consumption
Technological advancements and a drastic reduction in solar, wind, and battery storage costs present newopportunities to make clean electricity generation more affordable while reducing emissions
CIF Price of Coal and LNG in Japan(Trade statistics of Japan 2022)

Coal and LNG Import in Japan(Trade statistics of Japan 2022)

LCOE of wind and solar inJapan（IRENA 2021）

Residential
solar

Onshorewind

Utility-scale
solar

Research Questions• What effect will recent declines in wind, solar, andbattery storage costs have on the pace and scaleof renewable resource development?
• What clean energy goals are technically andeconomically feasible, given the inherentuncertainties including in electricity demand
growth, fossil fuel prices, and RE and energy
storage costs?
• How can a faster transition to clean energy deliver
not only environmental and economic benefits, butalso reduce security risks related to dependence
on imported fossil fuels?

Methods•

This study analyzed optimal (least-cost)investment and hourly operation of Japanʼspower system from 2020 through 2035•

The model meets the 2030 targets of the
6th Strategic Energy Plan and 90% clean
energy by 2035.

•Generation from any resource that does notproduce direct CO2 emissions is
considered to be clean energy in thisanalysis, including generation fromrenewables, hydrogen, and nuclear sources.

Assumptions in Clean Energy Scenario andSensitivity Analysis
 Renewables in 2030 must exceed the targets in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan Coal and LNG cannot exceed the targets in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan
 90% clean energy and coal phaseout by 2035
 Fossil fuel prices stays constant at the level before the Russian invasion of Ukraine
invasion (2012-2021 average) Lifetime of coal and LNG is 50 years.
 All existing nuclear restarts and are granted 20-year lifetime extension (60-year lifetime).
 Costs are taken from Japanʼs data, while solar, wind and batteries are based on NREL
ATB moderate with Japan specific adjustment.
•Sensitivity analysis includes the costs of RE and batteries, fuel costs (2022 levels),
electricity demand, and no nuclear lifetime extension

Key Findings

Japan’s 90% Clean Grid Is Dependable Without Coal
Generation Or New Natural Gas Plants

National System Average Hourly Dispatch in 2035 for 12Months

National System Dispatch in the Highest Net LoadWeek of Summer 2035

National System Dispatch in the Highest Net Load
Week of Winter 2035

Electricity Costs From The 90% Clean Grid Are Lower
Than Today’s Costs

The Results Are Robust Across All Sensitivity Scenarios

Generation mix in 2035 under six scenarios
1010

10

10

10

10

8

8

88

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

11

8

11

12

6

10

4

54

23

1
1

6

16

24
1
16

1
16

20

18

4

10

9

10

1
1

6
13

20
10

4

22

120

20

12

4

26

1726
6

4

10

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Incremental Costs Of New Generation, Storage, And Transmission
Is Smaller Than The Fossil Fuel Costs85% Reduced Fossil Fuel Imports And A 90% Clean Energy GridCan Significantly Bolster Japan’s Energy Security

Scaling-up Renewables To Achieve The 90% Clean
Energy Grid Is Feasible

Cumulative New Capital Investment reaches 38 trillion JPY (JPY2020)

地域間送電線
蓄電池
陸上⾵⼒
洋上⾵⼒着床式
洋上⾵⼒浮体式
住宅向け太陽光
⾮住宅向け太陽光
地熱バイオマス⽔素

Clean Energy Can Cut Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions By
92%

Reaching Cost-effective Levels Of Clean Energy Generation Will
Require Overcoming Policy, Market, And Land-use Barriers
Establishing Medium-Term Policy Targets (Beyond 2030)• Set medium-term targets for renewable generation and coal phaseout in 2035 and beyond toreduce policy and market uncertainties• Create coherent policy packages to enable the medium-term policy targets including
research, development, and demonstration (RD&D)

Accelerating RE Deployment and Coal-Fired Power Phaseout By Mitigating
Environmental Externalities• Consolidate feed-in tariffs, including feed-in premiums and reverse auctions, to accelerate
renewable deployment• Increase the price of carbon to accelerate coal-fired power phaseout• Invest part of the carbon revenues in RD&D related to innovations needed to create a zerocarbon gridReaching Cost-effective Levels Of Clean Energy Generation Will
Require Overcoming Policy, Market, And Land-use Barriers
Lowering Institutional and Societal Barriers to Rapid RE Deployment• Establish qualified renewable energy zones (REZs) with suitable topography and landuse designations to avoid delays in permitting and deployment• Integrate the zoning process in transmission planning• Involve stakeholders at early stages of planning to cultivate public input andacceptancePursuing a Just Energy Transition through Targeted Assistance Policies• Mitigate the societal and economic impacts of coal phaseout with transition assistanceprograms for communities and businesses• Use carbon revenues to reimburse households and businesses for part of their utility
expenditures, reducing the tax burdenReaching Cost-effective Levels Of Clean Energy Generation Will
Require Overcoming Policy, Market, And Land-use Barriers
Ensuring System Dependability, Enhancing Operational Flexibility, andBoosting Energy Efficiency• Create markets and profitable business models for flexible resources including energy
storage, demand-side management and measures, and flexible generation• Drive investments in cost-effective energy efficiency improvement through standard
setting or adoption of fiscal incentives

Next Steps• This report primarily focuses on renewable-specifictechnology pathways rather than explore the full
portfolio of clean energy technologies. Other technology
could contribute to lowering the system costs.
• Issues such as LOLP, system inertia, alternating-current(AC) transmission flow of both intra- and inter- regionaltransmission lines, and issues in AC power system suchas reactive power compensation need furtherassessment.
• The operational impacts of day-ahead / intra-day
forecast errors in RE and load

Strong policies are required to take advantage of multiple benefitsof 90% clean energy grid

Photo credit: EPA-EFE, South China Morning Post, 4 March 2021

Questions?
kshiraishi@lbl.gov