"GFJ Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on the relations of Japan with therest of the world, but they do not represent the viewsof GFJ as an institution.

October 5, 2007

Success Stories and Failed States in theDeveloping World
By TAKAHASHI Kazuo
Aspects of society and ways of thinking have been changing in a number of ways. I am
interested in considering whether these changes are clichés; that is, whether anything is reallychanging. In my field of expertise which is development studies, there are fundamental changes
going on in developing countries. It is necessary to think in detail about such changes; when one
considers next year’s re-launching of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
When asked about the fruits of development cooperation of the last several decades, many
people are probably likely to answer extremely pessimistically. Certainly, the examples offailure are too numerous to count. Evaluation activities are steadily becoming a major industry,and Official Development Assistance (ODA) has perhaps become the most prominent target of
this industry. However, in reality, the world has experienced four waves of great success. The
first wave was the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICS). In the latter half of the 1970s, SouthKorea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, amongst others, powerfully burst into the awarenessof the OECD countries. For instance, France labeled the capitalism of these countries as“Capitalisme Sauvage” and began to insist on greater regulation of their exports and finance.
The second wave was from the latter half of the 1980s to around the middle of the 1990s. The
leading actors were the countries of Southeast Asia. As made famous by the World Bank’s study,
it was called the ‘East Asian Miracle,’ which is still fresh in the memory. The third wave wasthfrom the middle of the 1990s taking place in China. Continuing from it, the 4 wave has beenfrom 2000 in India. Through this fourth wave, in the future, more than half the population of thedeveloping world will be able, through their own efforts, to solve their own development
problems. Although there remains considerable poverty, and the terrible extent of environmental
destruction remains hidden from view, these internal contradictions should be solvable by theirown efforts.
These are entirely Asian dramas. What a contrast from 1964, when Gunnar Myrdal published
Asian Dramas. In this famous book, Myrdal observed that because in Asia poverty were so
extreme that the rural poor did not have power to complain about their situation, anddevelopment was hopeless. This ‘hopeless Asia’ now leads the vanguard of the development
drama, and today, Asia is greatly changing not only the economic map, but the political map aswell. Looked at from the viewpoint of these successful waves of development, speculatingthwhere the next, 5 wave will be is a point of great interest. Where does everyone think it willbe?
Conversely, the failures of development are also important reality In particular, where stategovernance became so brittle, it created the so-called ‘failed states’ that emerged throughout the1990s, thrusting a new set of tasks before the international community, and creating a new focus
for action. Today, from the northeast to central parts of the Eurasian landmass, heading south
through the Middle East and then further south into Africa, a large part of the world is in an
unstable region. It could be said that a great turbulent zone in the world is being formed. The
main reason for this is that, within this region, there are growing numbers of fragile states, someof which are failing, and even failed.
Within this huge region, let’s look at the area with the greatest number of failing states, Africa.
In 1960, seventeen countries become independent in a single stroke. 1960 therefore become
known as the year of Africa. If these countries are compared with the whole of thethen-developing countries of East Asia, the African states income per capita was nearly 20%higher in 1960. In the 1960s, these developing states together formed the UN’s first ’10-year
development targets,’ and achieved 5% annual rates of growth. Problems began since the 1970s.
Following independence, under second and third-generation leaders, initiatives for political andeconomic reform were not effective. Indeed, the character of many of these leaders was oftenquestionable. Against this background, the world was rocked by the first oil shock, with a great
number of these African countries designated as ‘Most Seriously Affected Countries’ (MSACs)
by the United Nations. The plight of these countries was such that they even came to be known
as the Fourth World.
Furthermore, the 1980s was the lost decade of development. Aimed at the rebuilding of finance,
the structural adjustment policies of the IMF and the World Bank weakened the social
infrastructure of these African countries. It was in this state of affairs that the Cold War ended,sending severe tectonic shocks through the geopolitical structure of the world. It was no longer
necessary for the United States and the Soviet Union to try and pull the African countries into
their own camps. In Europe, based around the reunification of Germany, a new era began inwhich the countries of Europe had no alternative but to put all their efforts into the constructionof a new European order and a system for domestic stability. Within countries, identity problems
emerged around factors like race and religion, leading to political strife and the sudden outbreakof civil war in many countries. Although peace processes followed these civil wars, in a lot ofcases, peacebuilding was left unfinished. In this manner, a group of failed states were created.
Even in countries outside of Africa, through civil war and regional conflict, countries emergedwith weakened structures of state governance. Looking at the whole international community, as
many as 90 countries are in this situation. It has already reached the stage where these countries
cannot make do with the classical forms of international cooperation with the international
community. There is no alternative but to take a comprehensive approach to politics, publicorder, culture, society and economics. Moreover, an integrated approach must be putting
together urgent humanitarian aid, medium-term peacebuilding and long-term development. On
the positive side, knowledge about these issues within the international community is increasing,but it remains too weak. Perhaps the international community has no alternative but to grope inthe dark. This is also the reality in the on-going drama of development in the world community.

(This is the English translation of an article written by Mr. TAKAHASHI Kazuo, Visiting
Professor of International Christian University, which originally appeared on the BBS"Giron-Hyakushutsu" of GFJ on 20 June and 13 August, 2007)