資料６

気候変動対策推進のための有識者会議(第二回）資料
東京大学理事
未来ビジョン研究センター教授
グローバル・コモンズ・センター ダイレクター
石井菜穂子
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エネルギー・トランジッション・スキーム• 石炭火力発電は、温暖化ガス排出の最大の要因。ひとたび建設されれば、数十年にわたって稼働。世界的な脱炭素達成のためには、世界のエネルギー・ミックスから除去される必要。
• 石炭火力発電のシェアは、ヨーロッパ、アメリカで低下しているが、アジアでは依然として高く、その傾向が続くと予想される。
• 最近アジアの石炭火力の早期引退を支援するスキームに関する議論が活発化。その一つがADBにおいて検討が開始された「Energy Transition Mechanism」(別添）• スキームの特徴は、石炭火力発電所の早期稼働停止と再生可能エネルギー発電の加速化をセットで支援する仕組みを、主要な石炭火力発電国ごとに作る。ファシリティには、 MDBやバイの公的機関と長期的な投資資金を有する民間資金の両方が出資する。石炭火力発電所の所有者はファシリティに発電所を売却、ファシリティは稼働停止日を前倒しにする一方、REの導入を促進するための施策をとる。
• 国ごとのNDC(国家別脱炭素計画）とエネルギー計画と整合的であること、新たな石炭火力発電所を作らない約束をすることが重要。
• COP26における立ち上げを目指して議論が展開。

Coal-fired electricity must drop radically, but has continued to besignificant in Asian developing countries
Share of coal-fired power has dropped in US and Europe…

But remains very high in Asia (2019)
0.8

Share of coal-fired electricity generation
80%

0.7

70%

0.6

60%

0.5

50%
0.4

40%

0.3

30%
20%

0.2

10%
0%

0.1
2000

20022004
World

2006

2008

2010
US

2012

2014

2016

2018

Europe-China

India

Indonesia
CoalPhilippines

VietnamWind + solar

Large-scale solution needed to simultaneously rapidly decarbonize
and build-up clean energy in Asian developing countries
Source (left): Carbon Action Tracker 2020 and calculations based on IEA Data
Source (right) : BP “Statistical Review 2020”; IPCC “Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C”
Author: Donald Kanak (WEF blog "How to accelerate the energy transition in developing economies" https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/how-to-accelerate-the-energy-transition-in-developing-economies)

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The Alarming Gap: Asia-PacificEnergy Transition Mechanism (ETM): Possible solution for developingcountries
0Set up an ETM that is consistent with national energy
development plans and Nationally Determined Contributions
to transition a large amount of carbon-intensive power (e.g.
~50% of current coal-fired capacity by 2035) and replace with
Low-Carbon Power.

21Investors
1

Governance structure ensures the ETM’sadherence to agreed energy transition plan

Investors fund the ETM. Potential investors include:• Multilateral banks, including concessional lending
and/or first-loss guarantee to create blended financing• Domestic and international private sector institutional
investors• Long-term investors with low cost of funds

Debt
Equity4

CRF owns carbon-intensive asset andcontinues operations until agreed but
shortened decommissioning date. CRF
uses proceeds from operations to repay
investors

5

CEF provides finance, technology
assistance and know-how to hostcountry to accelerate renewables,
storage, grid upgrades, etc. Private
investors invest in or alongside the CEF.

6ETM investors receive returns from both
CRF and CEF. CEF and CRF cashflows
may be enhanced to achieve faster andmore just transition.

Concessional finance

6
Energy Transition Mechanism
Carbon-intensive
power asset owner
3

Asset
Cash and equity

Carbon-intensive power asset ownercontributes asset in return for cash and equityfrom ETM. Cash can be used for just transition
and CEF investments in renewables, etc.

Carbon Reduction
Facility (CRF)

4

Clean Energy
Facility (CEF)
5CashAuthor: Donald Kanak (WEF blog "How to accelerate the energy transition in developing economies" https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/how-to-accelerate-the-energy-transition-in-developing-economies)

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We can reduce the power costs AND emissions: accelerating demand forrenewables by 2-3x by speeding up the retirement of coal-fired electricity
Business as usual

With the Energy Transition Mechanism

Electricity generated

Electricity generated

Demand for renewables
increases 2-3x of BAU

Today

2030

2060

Total energy demand
Coal-fired assets generation and retirement over time

Today

2030

2060

Existing coal-fired power assets
retired early, creating additional
demand for renewables

Renewable energy generation over time

Author: Donald Kanak (WEF blog "How to accelerate the energy transition in developing economies" https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/how-to-accelerate-the-energy-transition-in-developing-economies)

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