Supplemental Materials for “Projecting North American Climate Over the Next 50
Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability” by C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, M. A.
Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, Submitted to J. Climate, July 26 2013.

This document contains Supplementary Figures referenced in the main text.	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   1.	   	   Summer	   SAT	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   C	   per	   51	   years)	   from	  each	  of	  the	  40	  CCSM3	  ensemble	  members.	  	  1	  	  	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   2.	   	   Winter	   precipitation	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   mm	   d-­‐1	   per	   51	  years)	  from	  each	  of	  the	  40	  CCSM3	  ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  2	  	  	  	  Supplementary	  Figure	  3.	  	  Winter	  SAT	  trends	  (2010-­‐2060;	  C	  per	  51	  years)	  from	  each	  of	  the	  17	  ECHAM5	  ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  	  	  	  3	  	  	  	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   4.	   	   Summer	   SAT	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   C	   per	   51	   years)	   from	  each	  of	  the	  17	  ECHAM5	  ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  	  4	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   5.	   	   Winter	   precipitation	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   mmd-­‐1	   per	   51	  years)	  from	  each	  of	  the	  17	  ECHAM5	  ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  	  	  	  5	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   6.	   	   Summer	   precipitation	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   mmd-­‐1	   per	   51	  years)	  from	  each	  of	  the	  17	  ECHAM5	  ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  6	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   7.	   SLP	   trends	   2010-­‐2060	   (hPa	   per	   51	   years):	   a)	   Ensemble-­‐mean	   and	   b)	   standard	   deviation	   from	   CCSM3	   (left)	   and	   ECHAM5	   (right).	   Top	  (bottom)	  panels	  in	  a)	  and	  b)	  are	  for	  DJF	  (JJA).	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  7	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   8.	   Signal-­‐to-­‐noise	   ratio	   maps	   for	   SLP	   trends	   during	   2010-­‐2060	  from	  CCSM3	  (left)	  and	  ECHAM5	  (right)	  in	  DJF	  (top)	  and	  JJA	  (bottom).	  Signal-­‐to-­‐noise	   is	   defined	   as	   the	   absolute	   value	   of	   the	   forced	   (ensemble-­‐mean)	   trend	  divided	   by	   the	   standard	   deviation	   of	   trends	   across	   the	   individual	   ensemble	  members.	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  8	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   9.	   Total	   2010-­‐2060	   summer	   trends	   (left)	   decomposed	   into	  internal	   (middle)	   and	   forced	   (right)	   components	   for	   two	   contrasting	   CCSM3	  ensemble	  members	  (runs	  28	  and	  30)	  for:	  a)	  SAT	  (color	  shading;	  C	  per	  51	  years)	  and	  SLP	  (contours);	  	  and	  b)	  precipitation	  (color	  shading;	  mmd-­‐1	  per	  51	  years)	  and	  SLP	  (contours).	   SLP	   contour	   interval	   is	   0.5	   hPa	   per	   51	   years,	   with	   solid	   (dashed)	  contours	  for	  positive	  (negative)	  values;	  the	  zero	  contour	  is	  thickened.	  	  	  9	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   10.	   As	   in	   Supplementary	   Figure	   9	   but	   using	   500	   hPa	  geopotential	   height	   (Z500)	   in	   place	   of	   SLP.	   Z500	   contour	   interval	   is	   10m	   per	   51	  years,	  with	  solid	  (dashed)	  contours	  for	  positive	  (negative)	  values;	  the	  zero	  contour	  is	  thickened.	  	  	  	  10	  	  	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   11.	   	   Summer	   SLP	   trends	   (2010-­‐2060;	   hPa	   per	   51	   years)	   from	  a)	   9	   individual	   realizations	   of	   CCSM3	   (runs	   21-­‐29)	   and	   b)	  9	   CMIP3	   models,	   selected	  alphabetically.	  	  	  11	  	  Supplementary	  Figure	  12.	  a)	  (top	  left)	  Regressions	  of	  summer	  SLP	  and	  SAT	  trends	  upon	   the	   leading	   PC	   of	   summer	   SLP	   trends	   in	   the	   40-­‐member	   CCSM3	   ensemble.	  
Values	  have	  been	  multiplied	  by	  two.	  (top	  right)	  CCSM3	  ensemble-­‐mean	  summer	  SLP	  and	  SAT	  trends.	  (lower	  left)	  Top	  right	  minus	  top	  left;	  (lower	  right)	  top	  right	  plus	  top	  left.	  b)	  As	  in	  a)	  but	  substituting	  precipitation	  for	  SAT.	  Contour	  interval	  is	  0.5	  hPa	  per	  51	  years;	  color	  shading	  in	  units	  of	  C	  per	  51	  years	  for	  SAT	  and	  mm	  d-­‐1	  per	  51	  years	  for	  precipitation.	  	  12	  	  	  Supplementary	   Figure	   13.	   As	   in	   Supplementary	   Figure	   12	   but	   using	   500	   hPa	  geopotential	   height	   (Z500)	   in	   place	   of	   SLP.	   Z500	   contour	   interval	   is	   10m	   per	   51	  years,	  with	  solid	  (dashed)	  contours	  for	  positive	  (negative)	  values;	  the	  zero	  contour	  is	  thickened.	  	  	  13