19th AIM International Workshop, December 13-14, 2013, Tsukuba, Japan

Sustainable Low Carbon Transport: Future Scenarios and Policies for India
Poojan Chokshi
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Doctoral Student, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

IP.R. Shukla
Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Introduction

Modelling Framework

Trends250
JAT oil200

BAU Scenario: The BAU scenario assumes an average
GDP growth rate of 8% between 2010-2035 benchmarking
with Planning Commission Integrated Energy Policy
report. Existing policies (such as fuel policy, JNNURM)
and projects (like high speed rail, metro) under construction
or planned in future are taken into account.

SLCT Scenario: Here, environmental concerns gain higher
importance on global, national and local policy agenda.
Various demand and supply side sustainable measures are
categorized into: Avoid (lessen demand), shift (investmentin mass transit systems) and improve (vehicleefficiencies, penetration of electric vehicles) framework. A
carbon tax pegged with 2 degree stabilization target is usedin addition to above mentioned measures.
Scenario Architecture

Four indicators are used to assess the key trends in thetransport sector:

Mtoe

Scenario Description:

Ethanol

150

Jet Fuel

100Hydrogen
CNG50Electricity

0OilEmissions: Compared to BAU, CO2 emissions reduceby 77% in 2050 under SLCT. There are also significant
co-benefits due to improvement in air quality as SOx andNOx emissions reduce by 84% and 83% respectively in
2050 compared to BAU levels
CO2 emissions (BAU)

CO2 emissions (SLCT)

800

800

600

600

MtCO2eq

Significant co-benefits (local air quality, energy securityand avoid getting locked-in into carbon intensiveinfrastructures and technology) can be gained bytransiting towards sustainable low carbon transport.
Objectives and Methodology: To assess the long-term
energy consumption and emissions from passenger
transport sector in India. Our analysis uses the AIM
Enduse model to explore India’s urban transport scenarios
till 2050. Two scenarios will be assessed: i) aconventional business as usual (BAU) scenario, and ii) a
Sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario which
optimally aligns India’s economy to the global climatechange stabilization target.

Transport Energy (BAU) Transport Energy (SLCT)MtCO2eq

Transport sector – Accounts for 19% of the energy use
and 23% of the total global energy-related CO2
emissions with its rate of growth highest amongst end-use
sectors (IEA, 2009) – contributes significantly towards
climate change. Hence, it is important to mitigate
emissions from the sector.
Literature emphasizes on aligning global climate
stabilization target and national sustainable development
and sectoral plans to gain various co-benefits and movetowards sustainable low-carbon pathway in the long run.

Fuel mix: Energy demand reduces by 61% compared toBAU scenario. There would be diversification towards
cleaner fuels such as biofuels, CNG and electricity in theSLCT scenario compared to BAU where fuel mix ishighly oil dominated40020040020000

Direct Emissions (SOx)Direct Emissions (NOx)

20000

200

15000

150

GDP

1412FreightDemand(tkm)
Passenger
Demand(Pkm)

108
6ktCO2eq

Index Year 1990

Passenger demand is
not highly coupledwith economicgrowth. That has
implications onenergy consumption.

10000

BLSLCT

5000

40

MtCO2eq

16100

BLSLCT

50020Energy and carbon intensities: The energy intensity
and carbon intensity both reduces in BAU as well as
SLCT scenario, but there would be significant
decoupling between energy and carbon emissions in
SLCT scenario compared to BAU scenario

Modal share
80%

Drivers

60%

Parameter

BAU Scenario

SLCT Scenario

GDP growth rate

8% (2010-2035)

8% (2010-2035)

20%
0%
1990

1995

Road8

7.9

2000

2005

RailAir

2010

Passenger
Increases at the rate oftransport demand
2.56%

Energy Intensity
Modal Shift

Mtoe / Million pkm

7.8

7.6

Technologypenetration

7.4

7.4
7.2

77

Fuel mix

6.8
6.6

Fuel economy

6.4
1990

2000

2010

Passenger

Carbon Intensity

0.08

0.07

0.07

Modal share (BAU)

0.06

80%

0.04
0.03
0.02

60%
40%
20%

0.01

0%

0.00
20002005

2010

Modal share (SLCT)

100%

0.05

0.05

Moderate carbon tax
consistent with 2 degree
Low carbon tax
stabilization target
Towards motorized
Towards
personalised transportmass transportation
Moderate
High penetration ofpenetration ofelectric vehicles
electric vehicles
High penetration ofModerate penetration
biofuels, CNG and lowof biofuels and CNG
carbon electricity
Fuel economy
Fuel economy improves
improves moderately
by 61%

Modal share: There would be shift towards mass transit
mode (like rail) in SLCT compared to BAU

Carbon Intensity = MtCO2/Transport GVA

0.06

Increases at the rate of
1.89%

Model Results% pkm

MtCO2 / Million INR

The carbon
intensity has
decreased over thelast decade due toefficiency
improvements

1.240%

Emission tax

The energy intensity
has been decreasingover the years which
implies animprovement invehicle efficiencies
and technologies

Energy and Carbon Intensities

AirRailBus3wheeler
Car2wheeler

Index year = 2010

The share of roadtransport that had beenon the rise up until
2005 has witnessed adecrease. However, it
still forms about 80%of the total modal
share100%

Energy Intensity = Mtoe/ Transport GVA
Carbon intensity = MtCO2/Transport GVA

10.8
0.6

0.4
0.202010

2020

Carbon Intensity BAU
Energy Intensity BAU

2030

2040

2050

Carbon Intensity SLCTEnergy Intensity SLCTResults and Discussion

Owing to various SLCT measures, there is a shift from 4wheeler towards rail, the energy and carbon intensities
decrease, which result in provision of several co-benefits
such as energy security, improvement in air quality, etc.
Decarbonization happens as the energy and carbon
intensities decline over time due to efficiency andtechnological improvements, penetration of cleaner
vehicle technologies, diversification into cleaner fuels andother SLCT measures.
This, in turn, results in decoupling of economic growthwith energy consumption and emissions.
References:IEA (2009). Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving towards Sustainability.
Paris.
Planning Commission.(2006). Integrated Energy Policy: Report of theExpert Committee. Planning Commission, Government of India.