JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2020
A global economy with increasing uncertainty
and the future of digitalization
Key points

🔶 World trade in 2019 decreased in both trade value and volume
In 2019, world trade (trade in goods, nominal export value) decreased by 2.9% fromthe previous year to $18.5 trillion (JETRO estimate). The trade volume (export basis)
also decreased year-on-year. It was the first time in ten years, since 2009, that both
value and volume had negative growth.
🔶 World trade in the first quarter of 2020 dropped sharply due to COVID-19
In response to the spread of COVID-19, the growth rate of world exports in the firstquarter of 2020 decreased by 5.8% year-on-year. A sharp decline in transportationequipment and general machinery was seen. By country/region, China and the EU
showed a more pronounced depression in imports and exports than others.
🔶 Japanese companies seeking new business styles in a world of increasing
uncertainty
About 80% of Japanese companies operating overseas expect that sales in 2020 will
decline from the previous year. Among Japanese companies which are consideringrevisions to their business strategies and models in response to COVID-19, about
70% chose “change of sales strategy”. Along with US-China friction, “demand shock”
and “market loss” due to COVID-19 are forcing Japanese companies to shift to new
business styles.

Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)
Overseas Research Department

Key findings at a glance
1. World trade in 2019 decreased in both trade value and volume

In 2019, world trade (trade in goods, nominal export value) decreased by 2.9% from the previous year to$18.5 trillion (JETRO estimate). This is because of an increase of uncertainty caused by trade disputes, a decline
in demand due to slowing global economic growth and a decline in fuel prices. The trade volume (export
basis) also decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a down turn from the previous year in terms of both value andvolume. It was the first time in ten years, since 2009, that both sides had negative growth. (👉See page 4)
In 2019, the amount of trade value in many countries and regions, mainly in Europe and East Asia, declined
from the previous year. The export value of resource-exporting countries also decreased from the previous
year due to the impact of falling resource prices. Looking at the world trade in 2019 by product category, thegrowth rate became negative for many products. The down turn in resource-related products, generalmachinery, chemicals, transportation equipment, electrical equipment, etc. has slowed down trade. (👉Seepage 4)
US-China trade friction has changed the flows of world trade. Due to the additional tariff measures against
China by the US, China’s global share of exports to the US of computer parts has shrunk, while Korea, Taiwan,and ASEAN countries have expanded exports to the US. In response to this shrinkage, China expanded its
exports to Korea and the rest of Asia. (👉See page 5)

2. World trade in first quarter of 2020 drops sharply due to COVID-19
The growth rate of world exports in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 5.8% year-on-year. Looking at
the breakdown, EU-25 (-1.7 percentage points), China (-1.6 percentage points) and resource-exporting
countries (-1.0 percentage points) made a large contribution to the decrease in exports. Examining the growthrate in the first quarter of 2020 by country, China’s exports fell sharply by 13.4% year-on-year. （👉See page
6）
Looking at trade (on an export basis) for 32 major economies where data was available up to the firstquarter of 2020, a sharp decline in transportation equipment and general machinery was seen, while positive
growth in exports of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies remained. An overview of world trade in the samequarter shows a more pronounced depression in imports and exports for China and the EU than others.
（👉See page 6）
In response to the spread of COVID-19, a series of trade-restrictive measures have been introduced aroundthe world. Particularly since March, restrictions to the export of hygiene supplies have become more common
globally. On the other hand, there have been a series of trade-facilitating measures such as reduction of tariffs
and simplification of import procedures: a cumulative total to 97 as of May 2020, exceeding the total numberof trade restriction measures (82) based on JETRO’s research. （👉See page 8）

3. Japanese companies seeking new business styles in a world of increasing uncertainty
According to a survey conducted by JETRO in collaboration with Japanese chambers of commerce andindustry in each country/region, about 80% of Japanese companies operating overseas expect that sales in2020 will decline from the previous year. The main reason for operational decline of Japanese companies inrelation to COVID-19 was the decrease in both domestic and overseas demand. This was followed by the
supply disruption due to the division of domestic and overseas supply chains.（👉See Page 14）
In response to COVID-19, about 60% of Japanese companies operating overseas are considering revisions
to their business strategies and models. Looking at the breakdown of these business revisions, procurement
and production accounted for about 20% and 10% of responses respectively, while changes in sales strategy
accounted for roughly 70%. （👉See Page 15）
COVID-19 provided an opportunity for the rapid digitalization of the living infrastructure of people andcorporate activities around the world. In addition to medical services such as online medical care, digitalization
has progressed in fields such as education and food service industry. In Japan, various new endeavors havebegun in response to COVID-19, such as online classes, development of systems to reduce food loss caused bycancellation of events and self-restraint of restaurants.（👉See Page 15）
The global economic growth rate in 2020 is expected to be lower than the one under the global financial
crisis in 2009. Japan's exports, which turned toward negative growth in 2019, are now in a widening decline.
Japan’s outward FDI, which reached a new record high in 2019, also started to decline in 2020. With global
uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels, “demand shock” and “market loss” brought about by COVID-19, on
the heels of US-China friction, are forcing Japanese companies to shift to new business styles.
2

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle changes with COVID-19(Photos by JETRO’s representatives)

Market in the lockdown（Nigeria）

Empty city center in Hanoi(Vietnam)Shopping mall in Johannesburg
after the lockdown was lifted(South Africa)

Red tape used to mark food court
seats so as to maintain a safe
distance (Singapore)

Sterilization in Nairobi(Kenya)Customers waiting to enter asupermarket while maintaining
social distance (India)
3

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

World trade in 2019 decreased in both trade value and volume■ In 2019, world trade (trade in goods, nominal export value) decreased by 2.9% from the previous
year to $18.5 trillion (JETRO estimate). This is because of an increase of uncertainty caused by tradedisputes, a decline in demand due to slowing global economic growth and a decline in fuel prices.
The trade volume (export basis) also decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a down turn from the previous
year in terms of both value and volume. It was the first time in ten years, since 2009, that both sides
had negative growth.
■ In 2019, the amount of trade value in many countries and regions, mainly in Europe and East Asia,
declined from the previous year. The export value of commodity exporters also decreased from theprevious year due to the impact of falling resource prices. Looking at the world trade in 2019 by
product category, the growth rate became negative for many products. The down turn in commodityrelated products, general machinery, chemicals, transport equipment, electrical equipment, etc. has
slowed down trade.
World trade related indicators

Trends in world trade (export basis)(Unit: % for growth rate and change rate)

Industrial production index growth rate（OECD)

Fuel price index growth rate
Crude oil price growth rate
Natural gas price index growth rate
Growth rate of nominal effective dollar
exchange rate

2018
190,654
9.9
2.5
7.2
2.3
27.3
29.4
26.4

2019
185,047
-2.9
-0.1
-2.8
-0.3
-17.3
-10.2
-36.7

-1.0

-2.4

3.4

(Billion USD)
25,00010,0005,000
0（Year）

Source: JETRO's estimates based on the trade sitatistics of respective countries, and
WTO data

World trade by product (export basis, 2019)（100 million USD, ％）Total exports
Machinery and equipment
General Machinary
Turbines

Export
NAFTA
US
MexicoEU
Germany
UK
Japan
East Asia
China
Korea
TaiwanASEAN6
Vietnam
India
RussiaWorld
Advanced economies
Emerging/developing economies
Commodity exporters

25,533
16,452
4,611
62,637
14,892
4,691
7,057
47,20824,9795,422
3,051
13,756
2,643
3,242
4,228
185,047
110,853
74,194
28,160

13.8
8.9
2.5
33.8
8.0
2.5
3.8
25.5
13.5
2.9
1.6
7.4
1.4
1.8
2.3
100.0
59.9
40.1
15.2

Growth rate

Contribution

Volume grow th
rate

-0.6
-1.2
2.3
-3.0
-4.6
-3.6
-4.4
-1.8
0.3
-10.4
-0.9
-1.9
8.4
-0.2
-6.0
-2.9
-3.3
-2.4
-6.5

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-1.0
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-2.9
-2.0
-1.0
-1.0

1.0
-0.3
4.4
n.a.
-2.3
-2.6
-2.0
n.a.
1.9
-1.8
2.7
n.a.
10.5
2.8
-1.5
-0.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

Note : 1) Figures of "World," "EU," "Advanced economies," "Emerging/developing economies" and "Commodity
exporters" were estimated by JETRO. 2) Figures of "EU" include those of intraregional trade. 3) Member countries of
ASEAN 6 are Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. 4) East Asia includes China, Korea,
Taiwan and ASEAN6. 5) See footnote in the main text regarding the definition of "Commodity exporters" (39emerging/developing economies and seven advanced economies). Figures of small countries which were unavailable
or unable to be estimated were excluded. 6) Advanced economies include 37 economies based on the definition of
DOTS (IMF). Figures for "emerging/developing economies" are calculated by subtracting "advanced economies" fromthe "world." 7) Volume growth rate data are from the WTO.
Source : Trade statistics of respective economies and WTO data

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
-30.0

15,000World trade by country and region (export basis,
2019)
Share

(%)

20,000Note: 1) Both trade values and nominal growth rates are estimated by JETRO. See
Appendix Annnotation II regarding the method of estimation. 2) The real growth rate isfrom the WTO. 3) The price growth rate was caluculated by dividing the nominal value by
volume index. 4) All commodity prices are indicated in the growth rate of the annual
average. Crude oil prices are the average of Dubai, Brent and WTI. Natural gas prices arefrom the Europe/Japan/US index.
Source : Trade statistics of respective economies, OECD data (June 2020), "IFS (June,2020)" (IMF), "PCPS (June 2020)" (IMF) and WTO data

Value

Export value
Nominal growth rate (right axis)
Real growth rate (right axis)

2001
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

World trade (export) (100 mil USD)
Nominal growth rate
Real growth rate
Price growth rate

2017
173,484
10.7
4.3
6.2
3.0
23.9
23.3
16.1

Computer and peripheral equipment
Semiconductor manufacturing equipment

Industrial robots
Electrical equipment
Communication equipment
Electronic tubes and semiconductors

Integrated circuits
Transport equipment
Automobiles
Automobile parts (excluding engines)

Precision equipment
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Commodity-related products (total)
Fuel
Non-fuel (metal, food and beverages)

4

Value
185,047
74,113
21,983
1,485
5,718
802
55
27,119
5,891
1,158
7,195
18,361
9,249
3,999
6,650
25,194
6,234
50,542
21,24829,295（100 million USD, ％）Share
Growth rate Contribution
100.0
-2.9
-2.9
40.1
-1.7
-0.7
11.9
-2.8
-0.3
0.8
8.2
0.1
3.1
-5.8
-0.2
0.4
-6.7
0.0
0.0
-9.8
0.0
14.7
-1.1
-0.2
3.2
-3.1
-0.1
0.6
1.0
0.0
3.9
1.2
0.0
9.9
-1.9
-0.2
5.0
-0.8
0.0
2.2
-5.1
-0.1
3.6
0.3
0.0
13.6
-2.3
-0.3
3.4
5.3
0.2
27.3
-6.1
-1.7
11.5
-9.7
-1.2
15.8
-3.3
-0.5

Note : 1) JETRO estimates. See Appendix Annnotation II regarding the method of estimation. 2)
See Appendix Annnotation I regarding the product classification
Source : Trade statistics of respective economies

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Changes in world trade flows due to US-China trade friction■ US-China trade has continued to shrink due to additional tariff measures between the US andChina since July 2018. US imports from China, which had slowed down in 2019, dropped by more than
30% in February and March 2020 due to COVID-19. Meanwhile, China’s imports from the US
bottomed out in January 2019 and turned to a positive year-on-year increase in November. However,it became negative again in 2020.
■ US-China trade friction has changed the flows of world trade. Due to the additional tariff measuresagainst China by the US, China’s global share of exports to the US of computer parts has shrunk, while
Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN countries have expanded exports to the US. In response to this shrinkage,
China expanded its exports to Korea and the rest of Asia. Meanwhile, China’s additional tariffs aimed
at the US have changed the world trade in soybeans. The US share of global exports to China has
shrunk sharply, with those from Brazil and other countries of Latin America to China expanding intheir place. As a result of the shrinkage in US exports to China, the US has expanded exports to
Mexico, Europe and Africa.
Trends in US imports from China (Y-o-Y change)

Trends in China imports from US (Y-o-Y change)

（％）

20.0

30.0

Year-on-year change

Year-on-year change

Fourth round*on September 1

10.0

（％）

Fourth round*on September 1

20.0
10.0

0.0

0.0
First roundon July 6

-10.0

-10.0

Second roundon August 23-20.0

First roundon July 6-20.0

Third round on
September 24

Second roundon August 23

-30.0

-30.0

-40.0
First

-40.0

Jan

Second

Apr

Jul

Third

Oct

Fourth*

Jan

Apr

2018

Fourth**Others

Jul

Jan

Oct

2019

Third round on
September 24

First

SecondThird

Fourth*Fourth**Others

-50.0
Jan

May

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

2018

2020

Note: "Fourth*" includes target products which were imposed in September
2019. "Fourth**" includes other remaining products.
Source: "Trade Statistics" by the DOC, "Biznews" by JETRO

Jul

Oct

Jan

2019

May

2020

Note: 1. "Fourth*" includes target products which were imposed in September 2019. "Fourth**"includes other remaining products. Each figure was calculated from the import values excluding
products which overlap with those in the first to third round. 2. The figure of January 2020 is acumulative value of January and February. (To compare with that in the same period of last year.)
Source: "Trade Statistics" by China Customs, "Biznews" by JETRO

Changes in global share of trade in major countries and regions (2017-2019)【 Parts and accessories for computer, such as printed circuit boards】【Soybeans】(Unit: % point)
Import

Asia

NAFTA
Japan

China

Korea Taiwan ASEAN

+ 1.6

+ 1.0

ImportUS

ExportAsia(Unit: % point)

Europe Others

+ 0.8

- 0.9

- 1.3

- 4.0

- 4.0

- 6.6

- 7.9

+ 0.7

+ 0.7

+ 0.7

+ 1.2

US

- 5.8

- 6.6

+ 0.7

+ 0.7

+ 0.7

+ 1.2

+ 2.7

+ 3.1

Argentina + 1.3

+ 1.3

+ 1.8

+ 2.1

Korea

+ 1.5

+ 1.5

Taiwan

+ 1.8

+ 1.1

ASEAN

- 1.1

Thailand- 0.6

BrazilVietnam+ 0.8

EuropeEuropeEU
Others

+ 1.1

+ 1.1

+ 1.3

+ 1.0

- 0.8

+ 0.7

+ 0.8

MexicoAfrica Oceania

NAFTA

+ 0.7

+ 0.9

US

Latin Europe Middle
America
East

Asia

China

US

+ 0.8

- 0.6

NAFTA
Japan China

Export

+ 1.7

Japan

NAFTA

Asia

Latin America

+ 1.0

- 0.9

+ 0.9

EU
RussiaUkraineOthersNote: 1) World trade and trade by country/region were calculated on an export basis. The world trade value is estimated by JETRO. The HS codes foreach product are as follows; computer parts and accessories: HS847330, soybeans: HS120190. 2) The colors of the cells show the increase/decrease in theshare of world trade in countries/regions in four stages. (For only the change of 0.5% points or more, the differences are indicated.) Increase [Blue]: Dark:
plus 0.5% points or more, light (shaded): plus 0.0% to less than 0.5% points / Decrease [Red]: Dark: minus 0.5% points or less, light (cross-hatched):
minus 0.5% to 0.0% points
Source: Data created by JETRO from trade statistics of respective economies.
5
Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

World trade in first quarter of 2020 drops sharply due to COVID-19■The growth rate of world exports in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 5.8% year-on-year.
Looking at the breakdown, EU25 (-1.7 percentage points), China (-1.6 percentage points) andcommodity exporters (-1.0 percentage points) made a large contribution to the decrease in exports.
Examining the growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 by country, China’s exports fell sharply by 13.4%
year-on-year.
■ Looking at trade (on an export basis) for 32 major economies where data was available up to thefirst quarter of 2020, a sharp decline in transport equipment and general machinery was seen, while
positive growth in exports of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies remained. An overview of world
trade in the same quarter shows a more pronounced depression in exports and imports for China andthe EU than others.
Growth rate of exports by economies, on aquarterly basis

Trade for 32 major economies by product, on
quarterly basis (year-on-year growth rate)（％）（Year-on-year % change）
15.0

World trade
coverage ratio（2019）

Total (exports of 32 countries/regions)
Machinery and equipment
General machinary
Mining and construction machines
Turbines

10.0
5.0

0.0

Computers and peripheral equipment
Semiconductor manufacturing equipment

-5.0
-10.0

I

II

III

IV

2017

I

II

III

IV

I

2018

EU25
US
China
Commodity exporters
World exports (growth rate)

II

III

2019

IV

I
2020

UK
Japan
ASEAN6
OthersNote: 1) World exports cover 210 economies. 2) See the footnote in the report regarding thedefinition of "commodity exporters." EU25 includes all EU member economies excluding two
commodity exporters (Greece and Cyprus). 3. The value of each country and region indicatesthe conribution rate.
Source: "DOTS (June 2020)" （IMF）

Industrial robots
Electrical equipment
Communication equipment
Electronic tubes and semiconductors

Integrated circuits
Transport equipment
Automobiles
Automobile parts (excluding engines)

Precision equipment
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Commodity-related products (total)*
Fuel*
Non-fuel products (metal, food and beverages)*

76.1
82.1
83.8
87.5
70.5
85.4
98.1
95.4
83.8
80.7
94.0
93.6
76.1
74.4
74.2
85.7
83.3
86.6
72.0
72.6
71.4

2019
I
-2.9
-3.8
-3.1
-1.2
10.2
-3.6
-18.8
-11.5
-3.7
-5.5
-5.4
-2.9
-5.5
-6.3
-6.7
-2.1
-1.2
3.4
-4.7
-5.8
-3.9

II
-3.5
-4.0
-4.3
-7.0
9.4
-7.6
-12.9
-11.7
-3.8
-4.5
-0.5
-3.0
-5.0
-4.1
-7.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.6
-3.6
-3.2
-3.9

2020
III
-2.3
-2.2
-4.6
0.5
11.0
-11.5
-15.1
-5.2
-2.5
-2.1
2.5
-2.1
0.8
5.1
-4.8
0.5
-1.3
10.2
-7.5
-15.2
-0.7

IV
-2.0
-1.5
-2.9
-10.6
6.0
-7.4
23.6
-8.5
-0.7
-4.4
4.7
3.6
-1.8
0.4
-6.9
1.0
-3.0
7.9
-7.5
-14.7
-1.3

I
-5.8
-6.9
-9.1
-13.6
1.0
-13.4
9.1
-3.2
-3.3
-11.4
-3.6
8.1
-10.7
-10.3
-9.5
-4.2
-0.4
13.9
-4.9
-7.4
-3.0

Contribution(Q1, 2020）

-5.8
-3.0
-1.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
0.4
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
-1.4
-0.9
-0.5

Note : 1) The 32 economies are Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia,
Singapore, South Africa, Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and the US. 2) Figures for products marked with anasterisk (*) are based on imports, those for other products are based on exports.
Source : Trade statistics of respective economies

Export growth rate for 32 major economies（2020 Q1, year-on-year % change）(%)
East AsiaUS
EU-14
Export
10
Japan
China
Korea
TaiwanASEAN-5
FranceGermany
Italy
Total: 32 economies
-5.8
-4.8
-8.0
-5.6
-2.4
2.6
-0.4
-4.9
-7.3
-7.8
-6.7
-8.6
East Asia-10
-7.9
-4.9
-9.9
-4.6
-6.5
3.8
-1.1
-13.0
-13.4
-15.9
-14.7
-14.4
Japan
-5.2
-3.7
-4.1
-6.4
6.5
-5.7
-8.1
-7.8
-7.2
-7.4
-7.2
China
-15.8
-10.7
-16.1
-11.3
2.2
-2.1
-25.1
-17.5
-15.9
-20.1
-17.6
Korea
-2.5
-3.5
0.2
-8.4
-5.2
4.5
5.5
-6.0
0.8
-0.7
-18.4
Taiwan
4.0
5.2
0.3
6.0
-5.7
6.1
3.7
-5.4
-16.1
-12.9
-11.7
ASEAN-5
-0.1
-0.9
-4.2
-5.2
6.9
6.0
1.2
4.4
-4.8
-13.2
-9.8
-3.3
US
-2.9
-3.5
-0.5
-14.6
6.4
10.3
4.6
0.0
1.4
1.4
-3.8
EU-14
-4.9
-6.0
-4.6
-8.0
14.9
-1.3
-7.2
2.7
-6.4
-8.2
-5.4
-7.4
France
-10.3
-22.9
-27.3
-36.1
-1.9
-7.1
-0.7
-6.1
-9.5
-10.6
-11.3
Germany
-6.4
-6.8
-11.9
-10.9
23.3
9.3
-9.3
-4.5
-8.0
-11.3
-10.2
Italy
-3.4
-11.3
7.0
-18.5
-5.4
-0.6
-5.4
7.5
-4.0
-6.2
-4.1
Note : 1) Chart was created on an export basis. 2) The figure for 32 economies is the total of the countries/regions in this table and Australia, Canada,
Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Switzerland and South Africa. The figure for East Asia is the sum of Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and ASEAN-5. ASEAN-5
includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. EU-14 includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland,
Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. 3) The figure for EU-14 includes the amount of intra-regional trade. 4) Shaded cells indicate
countries/regions of which growth rates (year-on-year) were negative. The blue cells indicate countries with growth rates of -10% to -5%, and dark blue cellswith white letters indicate countries/regions of which growth rates are below -10%.
Source : Trade statistics of the respective economies
ImportTotal: 32
economies

6

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

World trade of COVID-19-related products■ Looking at world trade in products required to prevent the spread of COVID-19 infection andmedical supplies for its treatment, the value of COVID-19 test kits/instruments and apparatuses usedin diagnostic testing, protective garments and the like, and disinfectants and sterilization products
increased significantly in the first quarter of 2020. Among the protective equipment, masks had aparticularly high growth rate of 56.8% year-on-year.
■ Looked at by country, China accounts for nearly 40% of the world share in exports of medical
products such as masks and protective garments. On the other hand, European countries have a large
share in the export of COVID-19 test kits/instruments and apparatuses used in diagnostic testing anddisinfectants and sterilization products. In Japan, the demand for masks and protective garments
increased in 2020, and the import of masks rapidly increased with the resumption of production in
China, which is a major supplier.
Quarterly export value of products related to Covid-19 (Year-on-yearchange rate)(Unit: %)World trade
coverage ratio（2019）

2019
I

II

2020
III

IV

I

Test kits/ Instruments and apparatus used in Diagnostic Testing

92.9

10.0

2.5

21.0

6.2

12.5

Protective gear

79.3

-2.7

-0.8

0.3

0.1

15.9

Masks

76.0

2.2

2.9

5.4

4.3

56.8

Protective garments

75.3

-11.1

-7.6

-3.0

-0.3

1.8

Disinfectant/sterilization products

83.6

-1.5

6.6

13.9

7.1

17.4

Therapeutic respiration apparatus

79.2

4.7

6.1

7.9

3.5

1.0

Other medical devices and equipment

77.9

0.5

2.0

6.5

7.1

3.8

Other related medical supplies to Covid-19

81.0

2.3

2.8

7.5

8.3

-0.4

Total

83.8

2.1

4.1

12.2

6.4

10.8

Note : 1) This was created based on the classification of medical products related to Covid-19 (the version of April 30,2020), announced by the World Customs Organization (WCO). For details, see "Note 2." 2) This is based on data from 32
countries/regions due to data restrictions. See the previous page for details of the 32 countries/regions.
Source : Statistics of each country/region.

Top five countries/regions for import/export ofproducts related to Covid-19 (2019)Japan's import of products related to
Covid-19(Unit: Million USD, %)(Unit: Million USD, %)Items

ExportImportRank Countries/
Growth Countries/
Growth
Value
Share
Value
Share
regionrate
regionrate
1 Switzerland 30,468
19.2
20.8 US
26,711
17.5
36.6
Test kits/
2 Germany
26,65316.8-7.0 Germany
14,387
9.4
4.3
Instruments and
3 US
22,16914.0
9.0 China
12,060
7.9
18.3
apparatus used in
4 Ireland
19,821
12.5
33.8 Belgium
9,851
6.5
2.5
Diagnostic Testing
5 Belgium
11,4477.2
15.3 Japan
8,551
5.6
22.0
1 China
5,518
39.5
6.2 US
4,676
30.4
8.1
2 Germany
1,183
8.5-0.8 Japan
1,338
8.7
4.3
Masks
3 US
1,164
8.3
7.0 Germany
1,282
8.3
3.1
4 Mexico606
4.3
11.6 France
651
4.2
7.4
5 Vietnam
470
3.4-14.0 UK
485
3.2
6.3
1 China5,825
41.5-9.4 US
3,114
23.5
-2.7
2 Vietnam
1,327
9.5
44.1 Germany
990
7.5
1.6
Protective garments
3 Italy799
5.7
0.2 Japan
863
6.5
1.0
4 Belgium542
3.9-4.2 France
840
6.3
-1.1
5 Germany
515
3.7
6.7 UK540
4.1-3.8
1 Germany
46,66115.0
1.1 US
63,922
19.1
9.3
Disinfectant/
2 Switzerland 42,534
13.7
5.8 Germany
28,173
8.4
6.5
sterilization
3 Netherlands 25,251
8.1
16.6 Belgium
19,2185.7
23.0
4 Belgium
23,261
7.5
4.8 Switzerland 15,999
4.8
8.3
products
5 US
21,791
7.0
8.8 Netherlands 15,633
4.7
10.2
1 US
12,21820.8
0.8 US
12,946
24.3
10.7
Therapeutic
2 Netherlands
7,092
12.1
9.1 Netherlands
4,988
9.3
3.5
respiration
3 Mexico
5,377
9.1
43.0 Germany
3,940
7.4
7.1
4 Ireland
4,779
8.1
11.4 China
3,306
6.2
16.0
apparatus
5 Germany
4,766
8.1
2.4 Japan
3,217
6.0
6.9
Note : 1) Only the top five countries/regions are listed here in terms of import/export value in 2019. 2) Thiswas created based on the classification of medical products related to Covid-19 (the version of April 30,2020), announced by the World Customs Organization (WCO). 3) The composition ratio is the share of the
global total of each product (estimated value by JETRO). 4) Vietnam and Mexico's trade values are
estimates.
Source : Trade statistics of each country/region

7

Value of Imports
2019

Jan-May
2020

Y-o-YchangeTop Supplier(2019)

Test kits/ Instruments and apparatus
used in Diagnostic Testing

8,551

4,028

27.3

US
（23.8％）

Protective gear

3,422

3,750

175.9

China
（57.7％）

China（75.3％）
China
Protective garments
863
408
28.3
（56.8％）
Germany
Disinfectant/sterilization products
14,6506,563
9.2（15.9％）US
Therapeutic respiration apparatus
3,217
1,256
-4.5
（33.3％）US
Other medical devices and equipment
3,387
1,373
-3.8
（38.5％）
Other related medical supplies to
China
4,318
1,812
2.0
Covid-19（44.4％）
Note : Based on the classification of Covid-19-related medical supplies by the World
Customs Organization (WCO).
Source : "Trade Statistics" by the Ministry of Finance, Japan
Masks

1,338

2,842

426.9

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Series of trade-related measures introduced in response to COVID-19■ In response to the spread of COVID-19, a series of trade-restrictive measures have been introduced
around the world. Particularly since March, export restrictions of sanitary supplies increased. On theother hand, there have been a series of trade-facilitating measures such as reduction of tariffs andsimplification of import procedures: a cumulative total to 97 as of May 2010, exceeding the total
number of trade restrictive measures (82) based on JETRO’s research.
■ The introduction of export restrictions and embargoes began early in Asia, starting in late January.
Europe and the US also started export restrictions, reflecting the expansion of COVID-19 since March.
In terms of trade-facilitating measures, there was also a temporary relaxation of standards andcertifications, in addition to border measures such as tariff elimination and the simplification ofimport procedures for the purpose of expanding access to medical and sanitary supplies.
30

Trade-related measures in response to COVID-19 (No. of cases)（Case）

9082

25（Case）

75

20

100

97
80

60

60

54

15
40

10
20

13

5
4

6

1

0

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jan

Feb

Trade restrictive measures
Americas

Europe, Russia and CIS

Mar

Apr

May

Trade facilitating measures
Asia and Oceania

Middle East and Africa

Cumulative cases (Right axis)

Note: 1) Only measures with clear relationships with Covid-19 are included. 2) Cumulative cases also include the measures which havebeen lifted by May 2020. 3) Measures of which introduction dates are unknown were replaced with the dates of notification to the WTO.
Source: WTO,WCO, "Biznews" by JETRO

Trade-related measures by each country/region in response to COVID-19
Feb

Export controls for masks.

MeasuresVietnamFeb

RussiaMar

Canada

Mar

India

Mar

BrazilMar

Elimination of import dutios on ventilators.

TurkeyMar

Temporary export ban on certain types of medical products suchas masks, protective clothing, and antiviral agents.
Restricted exports of APIs and formulations made from these
APIs.
Modifications to the notice on goods, which export is prohibitedor needs an additional licence.

MeasuresTemporary elimination of custom duties on products on the
medical products.
Measures to facilitate the importation of vital medical supplies.

Indonesia

Mar

VietnamFeb

Temporary export ban on commercial export of medical masks.

Mexico

Apr

EU

Mar

RussiaJan

Indonesia

Mar

Temporary application making the exportation of certain
products outside of the EU subject to the production of an export
authorization.
Provisional ban on personal protective equipment.

Temporarily exemption of pre-shipment inspections andsubmission of inspection reports when importing medical andhygiene products.
Facilitation import procedures for pulmonary ventilators and theparts.
Temporarily restricts import of certain animals, including insects,
reptiles, live fish and hydrobionts from China.

Mauritius

Mar

Australia

Mar

Switzerland

Apr

UK

Mar

Switzerland

Feb

Switzerland

Mar

Exportation of masks and gloves being subject to export
authorization.

Brazil

Mar

US

Apr

Temporary export authorization for certain personal protective
equipment.

US

Mar

Temporary measure to prevent non-commercial exports ofpersonal protective equipment and sanitisers.
Ban on parallel export of certain categories of medicines.

Source : WTO, WCO, "Biznews" by JETROCountry/region Month

Import facilitation

ThailandTBT related measures SPS related measures

Export restrictions

Country/region Month8

Temporarily restricts imports of live animals, including fish from
China and other certain countries.
Relaxation of labelling requirements for food products.
Granting a general authorisation for placing certain disinfectantson the basis of alcohol or active chlorine on the market.
Establishes exceptional and temporary criteria and procedure forthe petitions for the market authorization of medicines andbiological products.
Temporary policy regarding nutrition labeling of certain
packaged food.

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Growing presence of FDI screening mechanisms■ Foreign direct investment screening mechanisms (“ISMs”) continue to gain popularity as
governments perceive greater national security and public order risks. As of the end of 2019, at least
30 countries have introduced ISMs. As these countries account for more than 60% of global inward
FDI stock, trends related to ISMs will have a large impact on the world’s inward FDI.
■Amid the outbreak of COVID-19, many governments have strengthened implementation of ISMs
since March 2019. In so doing, they aim to tighten their supervision over inward FDI in medicalrelated sectors, such as research and development of vaccines and manufacture of precision medical
equipment, and safeguard domestic companies whose value have fallen from opportunistic takeovers.

30

Number of countries that haveestablished ISMs
Number of countries that haveestablished ISMs

25

Overview of ISMs in major countries
70.0
（％）

Share of inward FDI of thecountries above (right axis)

20

60.0

15

Aplicable laws
(illustrative)

Responsible authorities

Australia

Foreign Acquisitions andTakeover Act 1975

FIRB

50.0

5

0

40.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: 1) The number of subject countries is caluculated based on reports by UNCTAD
and the European Comission. 2) In Belgium, only the Government of Flanders has
established the mechanism.
Source: UNCTAD; Euroepan Comission

Sectorspecific

Ownership
threshold

China

Anti-Monopoly Law

NDRCFinancial and Monetary CodeMinistry for the Economy〇

25%

Foreign Trade and Payments Act

Federal Ministry for Economic
Affairs and Energy

〇*1

10%

50%

Italy

Law of 11 May 2012

DICA

〇

3%

Japan

Foreign Exchange and Foreign
Trade Act

Ministry of Finance, otherrelevant Ministries

〇

1%

〇

50%

RussiaFederal Law No. 57-FZ

FAS

United States

Foreign Investment Risk Review
Modernization Act of 2018

CFIUS

*2

5%

FranceGermany

10

Targeted investment

Countryn/aNote : 1) Germany established both sector-specific and cross-sectoral ISMs. 2) Ownership threshold represents theminimum figure in each jurisdiction when the threshold varies depending on sectors. 3) The description does notreflect temporary changes of the ISMs in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Source : "Investment Policy Related to National Security: A Survey of Country Practices" (UNCTAD) and relevant
legislation in subject countries

Reinforcement of ISMs in context of outbreak of COVID-19 (as of June 2020)

9

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Increasing uncertainty in global economy with COVID-19■ The global economic growth rate fell 4.9% in 2020, and it is expected to be lower than the global
financial crisis in 2009 (-0.1%). It is assumed that the COVID-19 pandemic will settle in the second halfof 2020 and containment measures will be gradually lifted, but it is highly likely that it will be “theworst economic downturn since the Great Depression.” Energy prices, including for crude oil, havefallen significantly as a result of economic activity stagnating due to measures such as restrictions on
going out and immigration around the world.
■ With the expansion of COVID-19, indicators of global uncertainty have reached their highest levels
since 1960, when data first started to be collected. And there are many matters spreading uncertainty
aside from COVID-19, such as (1) tension between the US and China increasing in many areas; (2) thefrayed relationship within “OPEC Plus,” consisting of OPEC and major non-member oil-producing
countries; and (3) the spread of social unrest throughout the world.
Real GDP growth rate/contribution by economies
2018
Growth
rate
World

2020

2019

Contribution

Growthrate

Contribution（Projection）
GrowthContribution

rate

Trends in world real GDP growth rate

(%)

(%)
8.0
6.0

3.6

3.6

2.9

2.9

-4.9

-4.9

2.2

0.9

1.7

0.7

-8.0

-3.2

4.0

US

2.9

0.4

2.3

0.4

-8.0

-1.2

Euro area

2.0

1.9

0.2

1.3

0.1

-10.2

-1.1

Japan

Advanced economies

Real GDP growth rate
Projection (2020-2021)

5.4％（2021）

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.7

0.0

-5.8

-0.2

Emerging and developing Economies

4.5

2.7

3.7

2.2

-3.0

-1.8

-2.0

-0.1 ％

Emerging and developing Asia

6.3

2.1

5.5

1.8

-0.8

-0.3

China

6.7

1.2

6.1

1.1

1.0

0.2

-4.0

（2009）

India

6.1

0.5

4.2

0.3

-4.5

-0.4

ASEAN-5

0.3

4.9

0.3

-2.0

-0.1

1.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

-9.4

-0.7

Emerging and developing Europe

3.2

0.2

2.1

0.1

-5.8

-0.4

Middle East and Central Asia

1.8

0.2

1.0

0.1

-4.7

-0.4

Sub-Sahara Africa

3.2

0.1

3.1

0.1

-3.2

-0.1

（2020）

1980
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2000
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20

5.3

Latin America and Caribbean

-6.0

-4.9％

（Year）

Source: "WEO, April /June 2020" (IMF)

Note : 1) The definitions of advanced/emerging and developing economies follow the World
Economic Outlook (WEO). ASEAN-5 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
2) For India, the data and forecast are presented on a fiscal-year basis.
3) Contributions are calculated using the purchasing power parity (PPP) of the previous
year, which was released in April 2020.
"WEO, April/June 2020" (IMF)

Source :Trends in commodity price index (Monthly)

Trends in world uncertainty index (Quarterly)
60000（2016=100）
180
160

40000

World Uncertainty Index (WUI)
World Pandemic Uncertainty Index(WPUI) (right axis)

Uncertainty:
High

15

10

140
120

20000

100
All index

60

EnergyNon-energy

40
1
2016

0

7

1
2017

7

1
2018

0

1996
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20/Q1

80

5

7

1
2019

Note: Until June 2020.
Source: "Primary Commodity Prices"（IMF）

7

1 (Month)2020 (Year)（Year）

Note: The WUI is constructed based on the frequency of the use of words
related to “uncertain," and WPUI based on the number of times uncertainty
is mentioned in proximity to a word related to "pandemic," in the country
reports of approximately 140 countries and regions by the Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU). The WUI uses indicators weighted by GDP.
Source: Ahir, H, N Bloom, and D Furceri (2018), “World Uncertainty Index,”
Stanford mimeo (accessed 17 July 2020).
10
Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Further challenges to weakening Japanese trade■ Export growth has remained negative since the end of 2018. It had begun to show signs ofbottoming out, however the rate of decline has increased in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19.
Meanwhile, imports fell sharply in February 2020 with a sudden decline in imports from China, andthen fell sharply again in May due to a fall in resource prices.
■ Regarding the export growth by product in 2019, semiconductor manufacturing equipment ingeneral machinery decreased from the previous year, and machine tools, mining and construction
machines also declined. In transport equipment, automobiles for the US decreased due to a transition
to local production, while automobile parts for China and ASEAN also decreased, meaning a decline
continues for 2020.
Japan's export growth (year on year change)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
-30.0

Japan's import growth (year on year change)（％）（％）
ExportVolume basis
Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Value basis

Apr

2017

Jul

Oct

Jan

2018

Apr

Jul

Oct

2019

Jan

Jun(P)

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
-30.0

ImportVolume basis
Jan

2020

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

2017

Value basis

Apr

Jul
2018

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul
2019

Oct

Jan

Jun(P)
2020

Note: Change rates on volume basis were calculated from the 2015-based volume
index.
Source: "Trade Statistics" by the Ministry of Finance, Japan

Note: Change rates on volume basis were calculated from the 2015-based volume
index.
Source: "Trade Statistics" by the Ministry of Finance, Japan

Japan’s exports by main product(Unit: Million USD, %)2019

Total exports

Y-o-Y Contrichange bution

Jan-Mayin 2020

Year-on-year change

Y-o-Y Contri
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
change bution

705,682

-4.4

-4.4

253,398

-11.6

-11.6

136,969

-7.5

-1.5

48,776

-15.0

-3.0

Mining and construction machines

10,440

-6.6

-0.1

3,521

-28.1

-0.5

Machine tools

6,736

-15.8

-0.2

2,064

-31.2

-0.3

General machinery

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment
Electrical equipment
Electronic parts such as semiconductors
Communication equipment

22,621

-8.6

-0.3

8,748

-3.8

-0.1

103,051

-5.8

-0.9

39,451-1.2-0.2

36,667-2.0-0.1

14,814

8.2

0.4

3,920

-22.2

-0.2

1,278

-21.2

-0.1

Transport equipment

167,838

-2.8

-0.7

52,724

-24.3

-5.9

Automobiles

109,160

-1.5

-0.2

33,243

-25.7

-4.0

Automobile parts (excluding engines)

33,024-8.7-0.4

10,495

-22.9

-1.1

Precision equipment

40,002-5.3-0.3

14,908-4.8-0.3

Chemicals

97,124-0.7-0.1

38,383-3.1-0.4

Iron and steel products

36,424-9.5-0.5

14,158-4.5-0.2

Note : Yen-based values are converted to dollar-based values by JETRO
Source : "Trade Statistics" by the Ministry of Finance, Japan

11

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Increasing presence of Japanese products in FTA partner imports■ The number of FTAs that came into effect in 2019 was nine, and the number of global free trade
agreements (FTAs) that had entered into force as of the end of June 2020 (including customs unions
and preferential trade agreements, research by JETRO) was 321. Looking at the effective FTA coverage
ratios of each country/region, those for Japan, China, Korea and the EU have continued to rise overthe past decade. Meanwhile, those for ASEAN and the US remained almost flat due to the limited
number of new agreements.

■ One year after the Japan-EU EPA came into force, the ratio of the imports utilizing EPA to the EU’s
imports of EPA-eligible goods was 41.1%. Exports from Japan increased for several products. Within
the TPP-11, Canada and New Zealand, which are new FTA partners for Japan, have many products forwhich import duties of about 5-10% were immediately eliminated, and the import share of Japanese
goods expanded for several industrial products.
Effective FTA coverage ratios in majorcountry/region (June 2010 - June 2020)（%）

Utilization of the Japan-EU EPA by product(February 2019-January 2020)

80.0

Products

EU-Korea FTA(effective in Dec. 2015)
69.6

Total of industrial products

60.0
China-Korea FTA(effective in Dec. 2015)

39.6
37.1

40.0

35.4
30.0
31.9

20.0

US
China
ASEAN

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: 1) Effective FTA coverage ratio is the ratio of trade with countries and regions where
FTAs have already been in effect, as of the end of June of each year. 2) The trade amount isbased on the statistics of the previous year. 3) Japan's coverage ratio does not include US.
4) ASEAN's coverage ratio was calculated based on the ASEAN Trade In Goods Agreement(ATIGA) and ASEAN+1. However, Hong Kong is not included.
Source: Documents and trade statistics of each government, and "DOTS (edition of June
26, 2020)" by the IMF.

Total

282

11.2

156

55.1

98
28
19
26

11.0
9.7
32.0
10.0

56
23
18
14

57.4
81.2
92.2
51.7

18

11.2

12

65.7

19

11.8

11

57.3

33,62610.9

13,80441.1

Note : Eligible products refer to those subject to MFN duties.
Source : Eurostat

Products which Japan's export share expanded after TPP11 came into force (2019)(Unit: %)Country

Product

Increase ofimport value(year-on-year)

CanadaNew
Zealand

Spanners, wrenches
Nickel, hydrogen storage cells
Car parts
Radiators and parts
Wheels and axles for railway
Light oils and preparations
Automobiles
Freight vehicles (5 tons or less)
Large passenger cars
Oil preparations

82 (times)
184.2
150.1
121.5
65.1
6445 (times)
61.7
19.7
9.6
5.9

Share of Japanese products

Tariff rate
MFN
7.0
7.0
8.5
6.0
9.5
5.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
5.0

in each import

TPP11

Eliminated

0.0

Japan
EU (extra-regional trade)
Korea

immediately

10.0Japan-EU EPA(effective in Feb. 2019)

Vehicles and parts
General machinery
Electrical machinery
Plastics and articles
Rubber and articles
Organic chemicals
Agricultural, forestry and fisheryproducts and foodPrepared foodFish and crustaceans
Meat
Beverages, spirits and vinegar
Preparation of vegetables andfruit
Animal or vegetable fats and oils

Eliminated

50.0

60.0

immediately

70.0(Unit: Million euros)
Import amountAmount of(A) of eligible Year-on- imports using B/A×100
products
year
Japan-EU EPA（％）[Note ]
(times)(B)
33,34410.9
13,64840.9
11,498
12.0
5,154
44.8
8,171
10.3
3,208
39.3
4,091
9.7
1,282
31.3
1,425
10.8
802
56.3
788
10.0
414
52.6
1,574
10.7
324
20.6

2018
0.3
86.4
2.1
1.8
3.2
0.0
90.1
8.1
9.0
17.4

→

2019

→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→

20.3
94.1
5.2
4.4
5.1
2.3
93.2
10.6
30.2
22.4

Note : 1) Among products of which imports from Japan have increased after the TPP11 came into effect, those which have been
imported for more than 10 million USD and are subject to tariff reduction or elimination are listed in the descending order of growth.
2) While the tariff schedule is based on the eight-digit HS code, the trade amount was extracted on a six-digit basis due to statistical
restrictions. The tariff rate is in the highest tax rate within the first six digits.
Source : Trade statistics of each country, World Tariff(FedEx)
12
Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Global direct investment stagnation continues■ Global inward FDI in 2019 increased by 3.0% from the previous year to $1.54 trillion (balance of
payment basis, net, flow). This is mainly due to the increase of FDI in EU countries such as Ireland.
Although it increased slightly from the previous year, it has remained well below the peak of 2015($2.04 trillion) since 2017, meaning global direct investment has remained stagnant.

■ Japan’s outward FDI in 2019 increased by 57.0% from the previous year to $248.7 billion, reaching a
new record high (balance of payment basis, net, flow). By region, FDI in Europe, the largest investment
destination, almost doubled, while investment in North America also increased (2.6 times). However, asingle large-scale M&As contributed significantly to the expansion of investment in the same year,
and because of COVID-19, investors’ appetite has been lowered, with the investment amount for
January to April 2020 decreasing by 44.5% year-on-year (preliminary figure).

Top 10 countries/regions in the world interms of FDI (2019)

Trends in global inward FDI(Unit: Million USD)

（Billion USD）
2,200

Inward FDI

2,000

Outward FDI

1 United States

246,215 Japan

226,648

2 China

141,225 United States

124,899

3 Singapore

92,081 Netherlands

124,652

1,200

4 Netherlands

84,216 China

117,120

1,000

5 Ireland

78,234 Germany

98,700800

6 Brazil

71,989 Canada

76,602600

768,379 Hong Kong, China

59,2798 United Kingdom

59,137 France

38,6639 India

50,553 Korea, Republic of

35,531

10 Canada

50,332 Singapore

33,283

1,800
1,600
1,400

FDI in developed countries
FDI in emerging and developing countries
Global cross-border M&A
Global cross-border greenfield investment

400
200
0
2003 04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19
（Year）

Note: 1) The figures for developed countries were summed from those of 38 countries/regions basedon the categories of UNCTAD.
2) The figures for emerging and developing countries are those of the world (excluding the financial
centers in the Caribbean region) minus those of developed countries.
Source: Data from UNCTAD and Thomson One (Refinitiv) (as of July 3, 2020)

Hong Kong, China

Note : 1) Excluding the financial centers in the Carribean region2) Due to the difference in the accounting principle, the figure for Japan in thistable does not exactly match that for "Japan's foreign direct investment" below.
Source : Data of UNCTAD

Japan's outward FDI by country/region

Trends in Japan’s outward FDI by type

(Unit: Million USD, %)（Billion USD）
260

Debt instruments

240

2019

Reinvestment of earnings

220

Equity capital

200

Total

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

19.1-5

Note: 1) The yen-based value is converted to dollars by quarter, using the average quarterly Bank of Japan
interbank rate. 2) Figures are based on BPM6. 3) The cumulative total for 2020 is a preliminary figure.
Source: "Balance of Payments Statistics" (Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan)

20.1-5(P)

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

99

2000

98

97

96

-20

13

Share

Growthrate

Jan-May,
2020 ( P)Share

Growth
rate

Asia
China
ASEAN
Singapore
Indonesia
India
North America
US
Latin America
BrasilOceania
Australia
EuropeEU
UK
Switzerland

60,69014,371
34,745
15,671
8,391
5,074
51,652
48,26914,6352,569
11,86011,308110,757
72,744
5,799
37,529

24.4
5.8
14.0
6.3
3.4
2.0
20.8
19.4
5.9
1.0
4.8
4.5
44.5
29.3
2.3
15.1

9.6
19.8
11.1
-5.3
157.1
53.2
159.1
180.8
-41.9
48.8
522.8
251.7
106.9
52.7
-71.1
921.8

19,310
5,897
9,732
2,789
1,484
1,414
22,941
21,587
8,388
1,382
3,601
3,346
22,213
15,232△ 1,807
6,331

25.0
7.6
12.6
3.6
1.9
1.8
29.7
28.0
10.9
1.8
4.7
4.3
28.8
19.7
8.2

-23.2
-3.2
-35.5
-8.5
-75.0
-23.2
-19.3
-18.4
843.9
50.2
1.4
5.0
-72.4
-81.5

World

248,675

100.0

57.0

77,231

100.0

-44.5

Note : 1) The yen-based value is converted to dollars by quarter, using the average quarterly Bank of Japan interbank
2) The cumulative total for 2020 is a preliminary figure.
3) The cumulative total for the EU in 2020 was calculated based on its 27 member countries. (The growth rate is acomparison based on the 27 member countries.)
Source : “Balance of Payment Statistics” (Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan)

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Impact of COVID-19 on Japanese companies■According to a survey conducted by JETRO in collaboration with Japanese chambers of commerce
and industry in each country/region, about 80% of Japanese companies operating overseas expect
sales in 2020 will decline from the previous year.
■ The main reason for the operational decline of Japanese companies in relation to COVID-19 was
the decrease in both domestic and overseas demand. This was followed by the supply disruption due
to the division of domestic and overseas supply chains. In terms of external shocks to global supply
chains, it is said that the Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2011 Thailand floods caused a “supply
shock,” while the Asian currency crisis and the global financial crisis caused a “demand shock.”
Although the COVID-19 crisis contains elements of a "supply shock," it seems that it has had a larger"demand shock" impact.
2020 full-year sales forecast of Japanese companies in major countries/regions (year-on-year)(c) Ratio of(a) Target
companies(d) Target fiscal (e) Target
country/region
which
term
industry(n = Number ofanswered
respondent companies)"decrease"(a) Target country/region(n = Number of respondentcompanies)(b) Survey
periodChina/East China（n=942）

Jun. 28-Jul. 2

76.0% Full year of 2020

All US（n=937）

China/South China（n=355）

Apr. 2-10

93.2% Full year of 2020

All Canada（n=86）(b) Survey
period(c) Ratio ofcompanies(e)(d) Target fiscal
which
Targetterm
answeredindustry"decrease"Jun. 26-Jul. 1

71.7%

Jun. 2020

All

May 26-28

69.8%

Apr. 2020

All

At time of survey(Comparison to
90.4%
figures before
Covid-19)
This term (no80.7%
time specified)

Hubei, China（n=83）

May 11-18

96.4% Full year of 2020

All Mexico（n=188）

Jun. 25-29

Vietnam（n=582）

Jun. 18-24

71.0% Full year of 2020

All Germany（n=238）

May 6-20

Thailand（n=498）

Mar. 9-13

88.4% At time of survey

All Czech Republic（n=69） May 28-Jun. 5

95.7% First half of 2020

All

Philippines（n=226）

Jun. 8-11

85.3% Full year of 2020

All UK（n=87）

May 18-21

66.7%

Apr. 2020

All

Malaysia（n=132）

May 12-15

Mar.18-20

94.9%

Full year of 2020

All

Indonesia（n=347）

Jun. 8-16

84.4%

Apr-Jun, 2020

All UAE（n=127）

Jun. 2-4

97.6%

Not specified

All

Apr. 24-28

91.4%

Apr-Jun, 2020

All

India（n=430）

89.4% Full year of 2020 Manufacture Russia（n=118）

All

All

Note : 1) Figures under (c) in bold and underlined indicate 80% or more. 2) Regarding (c), while questions and the number of options differ depending on the survey,
JETRO has grouped them into the following three categories: “decrease,”“remain the same (no effect)” and “increase.” (Replies of “Unknown (not sure)” were excluded
from the total.) Regarding the drop in sales in the UAE, the figure was calculated with replies other than "No impact." 3) Although definitions such as of "sales,""revenue" and "performance," differ depending on the survey, “sales” is used here (Respondent companies may have answered by including business in other locations).
Source : Survey on the impact of COVID-19 conducted by Japan's Chamber of Commerce and JETRO's overseas offices in each country.

Factors behind operational decline of Japanese companies in major countries/regions(in order of response ratio, multiple answers)(a) Target
country/region(n = Number of
respondentcompanies)
Industry

Factors

China/East China（n=719） China/South China（n=131）

All

Malaysia（n=109）

All

Manufacturing

Indonesia（n=289）

India（n=259）

All

US（n=288）

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

1 Decrease in domestic demand

1 Decrease in domestic demand

1 Decrease in foreign demand

1 Decrease in domestic demand

1 government

Operational regulations by the

1 Decrease in domestic demand

2 Decrease in foreign demand

2 Decrease in foreign demand

2 Decrease in domestic demand

2 Decrease in foreign demand

2 Decrease in domestic demand

2 Shortage of human resources

Operational regulations by the
3 government

3 Disruptions of domestic SC

Operational regulations by the
3 government

3 Disruptions of overseas SC

3 Disruptions of domestic SC

3 Disruptions of overseas SC

4 Disruptions of overseas SC

4 Shortage of human resources

4 Disruptions of domestic SC

4 Shortage of human resources

4 Shortage of human resources

4 government

5 Disruptions of domestic SC

5 Disruptions of overseas SC

5 Shortage of human resources

5 Disruptions of domestic SC

5 costs

6 Shortage of human resources

Operational regulations by the
6 government

6 Disruptions of overseas SC

Operational regulations by the― government

Logistics constraints and high―Logistics constraints and high costs ―costs

Logistics constraints and high― costs― Logistics constraints and high costs

6

Operational regulations by the

Logistics constraints and high

5 Disruptions of domestic SC

Decrease in foreign demand

6 costs

Disruptions of overseas SC― Decrease in foreign demand

Logistics constraints and highNote: 1) While questions and the number of options differ depending on the survey, JETRO has grouped them into the above seven categories. If there are multiple options in the same category, the one
with the highest response rate was compared. Where a hyphen ("-") is used, no option was established. 2) "SC" stands for "supply chains." "Disruptions of SC" refers to incidents such as the delay orsuspension of delivery of products, parts and raw materials. "Shortage of human resources" means shortage of labor. 3) The survey period was as follows: China/East China (June 28-July 2), China/South China(April 2-10), Malaysia (May 12-15), Indonesia (June 8-16), India (April 24-28), US (June 26-July 1).
Source: Survey on the impact of COVID-19 conducted by Japan's Chamber of Commerce and JETRO's overseas offices in each country/region.

14

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

Seeking new business styles amid COVID-19■In response to COVID-19, around 60% of Japanese companies operating overseas are consideringrevisions to their business strategies and models. Looking at the breakdown of these businessrevisions, procurement accounts for around 20%, revisions in production areas remains around 10%,
while changes in sales strategy accounts for about 70%.
■ COVID-19 provided an opportunity to rapidly digitalize the living infrastructure and corporate
activities around the world. Including medical services such as online medical care, digitalization has
progressed in fields such as education and food service industry. In Japan, various new services havebegun in response to COVID-19, such as online classes and development of systems to reduce foodloss caused by cancellation of events and self-restraint of restaurants.
Business strategies and review of business models by Japanese companies overseas
in response to Covid-19 (multiple answers)（％）
China/East China

90.0（n=354）Singapore（n=151）

60.0

Indonesia（n=265）
Mexico（n=81）

30.0

Brazil（n=68）
0.0

Financial review

Localisation ofstaff (reduction ofJapanese staff)

Review of
employment andemployment
requirements

Change of sales
strategy

Review of
production bases

Review of supply
sources

Russia（n=53）
UAE（n=58）（Reference）Japan（n=81）

Note: 1) The survey periods are as follows: June 28 - July 2 (China/East China), June 9-12 (Singapore), June 8-16 (Indonesia), June 25-29 (Mexico), June 12-22 (Brazil), May 20-29 (Russia), June 2-4(UAE), May 29 (Japan). 2) The content and number of answers to questions vary depending on the survey. The aggregated figures in this graph are solely based on companies which answered
this question. The survey in Indonesia does not include "Review of employment and its terms" nor "Financial review," and the survey in Mexico does not include "Localisation of staff." "Supply
sources," "production bases" and "sales destinations" does not necessarily mean the countries surveyed, given the possibility that respondents took into account business other than that in the
countries surveyed. 3) The subject industries in all surveys include manufacturing and non-manufacturing.
Source: Survey on the impact of COVID-19 conducted by Japan's Chamber of Commerce and JETRO's overseas offices in each country. Questionnaire from JETRO's ASEAN Webinar on May 29.

New digital-related business responding to Covid-19
Scotish Farmers: since
they cannot secureseasonal workers fromoverseas, they arerecruiting local
students andemployees of closed
restaurants instead on
the Internet. (UK)Doctolib: developed
a video consultation
platform that doctors
across France can put
in use. (France)

COVID19CZ:
introduced “smart
quarantine” which
utilizes an IT
network to quickly
identify people atrisk of infection.
(Czech Republic)
Dishcovery:
providing digital
services to translate
and digitalize
restaurant menus.
(Italy)Paga: to reduce the handling of
cash in their digital payment service,it has changed its system to allow
users to pay without fees. (Nigeria)
Yoco: accelerating thedevelopment of remote
payment products whichallow money transfers via
web links on client
networks. (South Africa)

Alibaba: figuring out the risk ofinfection by comprehensively
analyzing big data of QR code
payment service “Alipay” and thatof the movement status and health Dalian Horen Education
Zoom: provided a
Google: improved Google
management of citizens possessed Technology: developed
video conferencing
Map to display takeout
an educationalby the government. (China)
platform toand delivery information,
application forelementary, juniorand is offering training
elementary, junior highHema Fresh Store: begun anhigh and highprograms for restaurants
and high school students"employee sharing" system toschools in Japan,
which have started takeout
based on AI technology
temporarily accept employees
Italy and the US. (US)and delivery services. (US)in the food service industry
and big data. (China)
and make up for the shortage
Atama Plus:
Astool:of their own delivery staff.
IBM: developed a system to respondstrengthened its
released a price(China)inquiries about Covid-19 based on data
product services tocomparison
released by the US Centers for Disease
support teachers
website such as
Tina3d: developed
Toppr: offers online
Control and Prevention. (US)who provide
for masks andan app which
practice exams,
remote classes.
alcohol gels.
makes alarm bells
practice exercises,(Japan)(Japan)when an infected
and video lessons for
person is
students to prepare
confirmed. (Korea)
for exams. (India)
One Carrier: started broadcastingCompre dos Pequenos:
company briefing sessions for
Focusing on issues of business
Gojek: developed a service to bringjob-seeking students on Youtube.
continuity and employment
the necessary medicines to homes of(Japan)retention, it is selling giftpatients if they were diagnosed withcertificates of SMEs' productsa suspected infection by an online
Glaucks: expanded products
and services available after the
consultation with a doctor.
of their food sharing platform
end of Covid-19. (Brazil)(Indonesia)
in order to eliminate foodlosses for food business
Jabil: uses digital tools to：Medicaloperators. (Japan)
manage supply chains such
：Educationas material procurement andvisualize risks. (Singapore)：Restaurant：Employment：Other

Source: Biznews by JETRO, media coverage

15

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

New!

New chapter on digital trade■ In the 2020 edition of this report, a new chapter on digital trade was added to analyze such topics
as cross-regional trends in digital-related business and its rule formation as well as trade in digital
goods. Among recent global trends in digital business, online platformers have made advances fromvirtual space to that of the real world. Furthermore, digitalization has expanded the existing businessdomains of companies.
■ As economic societies are forced to rapidly digitalize, there is a growing concern that there is little
universal rule regarding cybersecurity and cross-border data transfer. International organizations andforums are working on the establishment of common international standards such as e-commercerules in the WTO, free data transfer in the G20 and digital taxation in the OECD. (See Chapter 4 of thisreport for details.)
Entry into the "real" world by leading online platformers
VirtualReal

Alphabet(Google)・Search engine
・Video streaming service(Youtube)

・Selling "Chrome Book" PCs・Started a self-driving taxi service jointly with Waymo
・Developed a health management application
・Constructed a renewable energy power generation system
・Developed VR for manufacturers

Amazon・EC・Video streaming service(Amazon Prime)・Developed a brick-and-mortar store "Amazon Go"
・Selling AI speakers "Amazon Echo" and "Alexa"
・Entered into a broadband communication service with artificial satellites
・Providing a service to help develop autonomous driving cars

Baidu

・Search engine

・Implementing the "Apollo Project," opening an autonomous vehicle platform to the public
・Mass producing and testing driverless minibuses together with bus manufacutures

Alibaba・EC (Tmall Global)
・Mobile payment (Alipay)

・Combining the Internet and the real worlds through the supermarket "Hema Fresh Store"
・Proposing optimal coordination at the "Fashion AI Concept Store"
・Mitigating the city traffic congestion utilizing AI and big data analysis

Rakuten・EC

・Providing services including Rakuten Medical, insurance and financial businessYahoo・Search engine
・Mobile payment (PayPay)

・Proposing the concept of ”Data Forest" to provide data to companies and local governments
・Operating its mobile phone business "Y mobile"

Source : websites of each company

Policy objectives behind digital restriction andframeworks for international rule-making

Expansion of business areas
through digitalization

Objectives

Digitalizing

measuresadopted foreach
objective

Adding newvalue by analyzing
processes &customer information
Servitization

Frameworkforinternational
rule-making

Changes ofbusiness models

Others・Censorship・Protection of copyrightand public morals
・Right to be forgotten
・Cyber security

requirements
・Filtering
・IPR restrictions
・Prohibition of anti・Digital taxationcompetitive behavior
・Requirements fordisclosure of technicalinformation
・Restrictions on foreign
investment
・Data localization：Prohibition of cross border data transaction, Server
WTO：E-commerce facilitation
G20：Ensuring free flow of data
OECD：Digital taxation

APEC：Harmonizing privacy proteciton

Networking
Source: Created by JETRO

Protection anddevelopment of local
industry・Local content

location requirementsof things
Manufacture& sales ofthings, face-toface services

national security

Examples of ・Protection of privacy

Area ofnewbusiness

Area ofexisting
business

Consumer protection,

FTA：E-commerce, free flow of data, privacy protection, etc.

Note : Description after "："are the representative initiative of each international forum.
Source : Centre for International Governance Innovation（CIGI）, and various materials

16

Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.

JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2020
Contents
Chapter 1: World trade and Japan’s trade• Section 1: Current state of the world economy• Section 2: World trade• Section 3: Japan’s trade• Section 4: Impact of US-China friction on world trade

Chapter 2: Global FDI and Japan’s FDI• Section 1: Global FDI• Section 2: Japan’s outward FDI• Section 3: Japan’s inward FDI• Section 4: Impact on business activities due to changes in the businessenvironment amidst increasing uncertainty

Chapter 3: Trends in global trade rule formation• Section 1: Trade policies of major countries/regions• Section 2: Current situation and challenges of the multilateral trading
system• Section 3: Current situation of FTAs in the world and Japan

Chapter 4: Digital trade• Section 1: Global digital trade• Section 2: Trends in global digital business• Section 3: Trends in digital-related rule formation
What is JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report?
 History
In 1956, JETRO launched “Current Situation of Overseas Markets.” Since then, it has been issued as the“JETRO White Paper on International Trade,” “JETRO White Paper on Foreign Direct Investment” (twovolumes), and “JETRO White Paper on International Trade and Investment.” Since 2010, "JETRO Global Tradeand Investment Report,” has been available free on our website below. It marks its 10th anniversary this year.
 Key features
This is an annual report analyzing trends in the worldwide economy, trade, FDI and trade rules utilizing
various data as well as reports from our overseas offices. JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report is areport in which annual trade, investment and trends in trade rules can be understood at a glance.
 The full text of the report (in Japanese) can be downloaded from the URL below.
https://www.jetro.go.jp/world/gtir/
17
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JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2020: A Global Economy with
Increasing Uncertainty and the Future of Digitalization

Key Points
Address any inquiries concerning this report to:International Economy Division, Overseas Research Department
Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)
1-12-32 Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-6006 Japan
Tel: +81-(0)3-3582-5177
E-mail: ORI@jetro.go.jp
Note: Figures may not sum up to the total because some are less than one unit.
Disclaimer of liability: Responsibility for any decisions made based on or in relation to the information provided in thismaterial shall rest solely on the reader. Although JETRO strives to provide accurate information, JETRO will not be
responsible for any loss or damages incurred by readers through the use of such information in any manner.
[Reproduction without permission is prohibited.]
Copyright (C) 2020 JETRO. All rights reserved.