IPCC AR6 Cycle: Products, Activities and Timeline

An UpdatePriyadarshi R. Shukla,IPCC, WGIII Co-Chair

23rd AIM International Workshop
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan
November 27, 2017

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The three new IPCC products relevant to WG III• Special report on “global warming of 1.5 C” invited by UNFCCC(September 2018)“Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening
the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, andefforts to eradicate poverty”• Special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation,
sustainable land management, food security and greenhouse gas
fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems(September 2019)• Sixth Assessment report(July 2021)

Approved Outline of theSpecial Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
Chapter 1: Framing and Context
Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in thecontext of sustainable development
Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural andhuman systems
Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global responseto the threat of climate change
Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication, andreducing inequalitiesMitigation Risks of 1.5 oC versus 2 oC?
• How much higher are mitigation costs?
• Impacts on sustainable development including poverty eradication• Technology needs (e.g. negative emissions & risks not to meet them)• Impacts on food security and biodiversity, e.g. by BECCS• Impacts on carbon cycle by more ambitious mitigation (e.g. forests)• Overshoot risks (temperature, atmos. GHG conc.), irreversibility

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Review of 1.5°C pathways
Key differences with 2°C scenarios

Rogelj et al (2015) Nature CC

Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climatechange, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management,
food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems

Chapter 1: Framing and Context
Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
Chapter 3: Desertification
Chapter 4: Land Degradation
Chapter 5: Food Security
Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security
and GHG fluxes: Synergies, trade-offs and Integrated Response Options
Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainabledevelopment

Scoping ofIPCC AR6

Overall recommendations from the Expert Meeting
Be bold about cross-cutting topics and possible chapter structures. Don’t
feel bound by AR5.
– Infrastructure? Cities? Consumption and behaviour? Innovation?

Separate forward-looking chapters on the medium-term (up to 20302040?) and the long-term (2100)– Medium-term issues: SDGs, NDCs and global peaking of emissions– Long-term issues: balancing sinks and sources; temperature goals

Connect mitigation responses across different scales– Regional, international, national, cities

Transparency of scenarios and models
A cross Working Group team on scenarios for AR6

Proposed outline of WG III AR6Framing (1 chapter)
1. Introduction and framing
High-level assessment of emission trends, drivers
and pathways (3 chapters)
2. Past emissions trends and drivers
3. Long-term mitigation goals and pathways
4. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term
Sectoral chapters (8 chapters)
5: Demand, services and social aspects of transformation
6: Energy systems
9. Buildings
7. AFOLU
10. Transport
8. Urban systems and other settlements
11. Industry
12. Responses across and beyond sectors
Institutional drivers (2 chapters)
13. National and sub-national policies and institutions
14. International cooperation
Financial and technological drivers (2 chapters)
15. Mobilising finance
16. Innovation, technology development and technology
transferSynthesis (1 chapter)
17. Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable
development

Set up sustainable development
as key framing concept
Balancing sources andsinks/warming levels
NDCs, emissions peaking, midcentury long-term low greenhousegas emission development
strategies
Orients sectors to human needs
The sectoral core: maps on toinventories
Responses not captured by
sectoral framingInstitutions, policies & cooperation
Financial flows + technologicalinnovation
Synthesis sustainable
development in different
geographical scales

Timeline for WGIII contribution to AR6
1-5 May 2017

AR6 Scoping Meeting

6-10 Sept

Panel consideration of outline for AR6

11 Sept – 22 Oct 2017

Call for CLA/LA/RE Nominations

29 Jan – 4 Feb 2018

Decision on selection of CLA/LA/RE

1-5 Apr 2019

1st Lead Author Meeting (LAM1)

30 Sep – 4 Oct 2019

2nd Lead Author Meeting (LAM2)

9 Dec 19 – 31 Jan 20

1st Order Draft (FOD) Expert Review

30 Mar – 3 Apr 3 2020

3rd Lead Author Meeting (LAM3)

1 Jun – 24 Jul 2020

2nd Order Draft (SOD) Expert Review

19-23 Oct 2020

4th Lead Author Meeting (LAM4)

1 Feb – 26 Mar 2021

FGD Government Review of SPM

12-14 Jul 2021

IPCC acceptance/adoption/approval

AuthorDrafting andSelection

Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability andClimate Stabilization Scenarios

ScopingReview

26-28 April 2017

AR6 Approval

IPCC WGIII Technical Support Unit

IPCC WGIII: www.mitigation2014.org

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