CO2 concentrations

OUR VISION

Conditionsfor Survival

380
ppm

2000

Global Warming —Response to a Creeping Crisis

1990

360

340

320
Special Round Table Conference on Global Environment Problems

It is almost 40 years since The Limits to Growth was
published in 1972 by the Club of Rome. Over the years
since this publication allowed the world to recognize
the finiteness of the Earth, environmental problems
have become ever more serious, and show no signsof mitigation. We have already exceeded the limits togrowth, and there are even concerns over the survivalof humankind. Under these circumstances, the Asahi
Glass Foundation established the Special Round
Table Conference on Global Environment Problems,comprising 28 directors and councilors who have been
debating issues related to humankind, including global
environmental problems to date. Based on the resultsof their discussions, this booklet will give insights into
the requirements for a truly sustainable society in Our
Vision, focusing on the problem of global warming.

The Asahi Glass Foundation was established in 1933 as the Asahi Foundation for
Chemical Industry Promotion in commemoration of the 25th anniversary (in 1932)of the foundation of Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. Over most of its ﬁrst half century, excluding the confused post-war period, the Foundation focused primarily on fosteringresearch in applied chemistry. Subsequently in 1990, the Foundation undertook theoverall redesign of its programs, expanding the target of its research grants andestablishing its commendation program. At the same time, it changed its nameto the Asahi Glass Foundation. Since then, the Foundation has been continuing its
activities focusing on (1) the research grant program designed to foster science andtechnology for future generations and on (2) the Blue Planet Prize program as its
two mainstays, with the aim of contributing to the creation of a society and culturethat provides a truly rich life to a wide range of people, and including initiatives tosolve global environmental problems.

OUR VISION

Conditionsfor Survival
Global Warming —Response to a Creeping Crisis© PPS

Introduction
The Earth seen from space is blue and is incomparably beautiful.
Resulting from the accumulation of an incredible number ofcoincidences, the Earth became a planet where life resides. It is a miraculous planet where air, water, land, and the animals and plants andmicroorganisms living there together form a complex symbiosis that isinvaluable and irreplaceable for all living things, including humankind.
The Asahi Glass Foundation established the Blue Planet Prize andhas commended individuals and organizations who contributed tosolving global environmental problems. The prize was named after the
Earth, shining blue, which is mother to all living things. We have continued to award the prize, in consideration that global environmental
problems are the most pressing problems faced by humankind.
We human beings have carried out our activities just to satisfy ourown desires, without considering the capacity of the Earth. As a result,the Earth s system has been badly affected and a range of global
environmental problems, represented by global warming became
significant.
It is now time for us human beings to set bold targets for the survivalof all living things on the planet and take action to achieve thosetargets. We humans are now asked to show our true wisdom.
We would like to ask every one of you to think about global environmental problems and join in the efforts to solve them. The Special
Round Table Conference on Global Environment Problems ( theRound Table Conference ) comprising the directors and councilors of theFoundation was established for that purpose.
Mankind has made mistakes, but has also become aware of how
beautiful a planet the Earth is when seen from space. We have now
become aware of the mistakes made and the impending crisis. If westart taking corrective action immediately, I believe we will be able torestore the beauty and riches of the planet and pass them on to future
generations.

Hiromichi Seya

Chairman of the Asahi Glass Foundation2

Special Round Table Conference on Global Environment Problems(As of March 31, 2009)
Chairman

Hiromichi Seya

Senior Corporate Advisor, former Chairman, former President,
Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.

Senior Executive Director

Keiichi Uchida

Former General Manager, Intellectual Property Division,
Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.

Trustees

Ryoichi Ito
Takeshi Endo

Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Vice President, Kinki University;
Director, Molecular Engineering Institute Kinki University;
Professor Emeritus, Tokyo Institute of Technology
President, Building Maintenance & Management Center;
Professor Emeritus, Waseda University
Vice President, University of Tsukuba
President, The Mechanical Social Systems Foundation;
Former Administrative Vice-minister of International Trade and Industry
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo;
Former President, Science Council of Japan
Chairman, Board of Trustees, Fukuoka Shika Gakuen;
Professor Emeritus, former President, Kyushu University
Professor Emeritus, former President, Kyoto University
President, RIKEN
Professor, Hosei University;
Professor Emeritus, Ochanomizu University
Special Research Advisor, Institute for Global Environmental
Strategies; Professor Emeritus, Nagoya University
Counsellor, former Chairman, former President, Mitsubishi Corporation
President, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science andTechnology; Former President, Science Council of Japan

Toshio Ojima
Takeshi Koshizuka
Yukiharu Kodama
Jiro Kondo
Kenzo Tanaka
Yasunori Nishijima
Ryoji Noyori
Takashi Miyajima
Akio Morishima
Shinroku Morohashi
Hiroyuki Yoshikawa
Councillors

Michiko Imai
Hitoshi Osaki
Yohichi Gohshi
Yuichi Shionoya
Niro Shimada
Tsukasa Shimizu
Junjiro Takahashi
Keiko Nakamura
Minoru Makihara
Nobuo Matsunaga

AuditorFormer Auditor
Former Councillor

Masashi Sakamoto
Kiyoshi Tazawa
Ryohachi Kusaba

Director, Le Verseau Inc.
Special Advisor to the President, National Institutes for the Humanities;
Former Commissioner for Cultural Affairs
Executive Auditor, University of Tsukuba;
Former President, National Institute for Environmental Studies;
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Professor Emeritus, former President, Hitotsubashi University
Former Chief Justice, The Supreme Court of Japan
Chairman, Tokyo Kasei University;
Professor Emeritus, former President, Waseda University
Advisor, Academyhills; Professor Emeritus, Keio University
Director General, JT Biohistory Research Hall;
Visiting Professor, Osaka University
Senior Corporate Advisor, former Chairman, former President,
Mitsubishi CorporationVice-Chairman, The Japan Institute of International Affairs;
Former Ambassador to the United States of America
Former Statutory Auditor, Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.
Former Auditor, Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.
Former Chief Justice, The Supreme Court of Japan3

Prologue

Departure from The Limits to Growth
The book The Limits to Growth was commissioned by the Club of Rome andpublished in 1972. Its authors include Dennis L. Meadows of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. This book raised questions about the sustainability of
the Earth and attracted much public attention. It established a world prediction
model and analyzed 12 scenarios on global development over the 200 years
from 1900 to 2100. In conclusion, the book warns that if the world populationand industrial investment continue to increase, resources will be depleted, theenvironment will deteriorate, and humankind will reach the limits of growthwithin 100 years.
The world population has indeed increased at an exponential rate over the last
several tens of thousands of years. The world population was 6.7 billion in 2007,
up 5.7 billion or about seven fold on the population at the time of the Industrial
Revolution in the 18th century. The production of rice, wheat and corn, and theconsumption of fossil fuels have also shown a remarkable rise over the past 100
years, as indicated in The Limits to Growth .
Subsequently in 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Commission), which was established within the United Nations,published a report titled Our Common Future . In this report, the Commission
proposed the concept of sustainable development as development that meetsthe needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs. The concept of sustainable development then spreadinternationally through the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the World Summit on Sustainable
Development held in Johannesburg in 2002, and other international conferences.
In reality, however, despite the warnings given in The Limits to Growth , theworld s population has shown a steady increase, and countries have been continuing economic growth based on mass production, consumption and disposal.
* Dennis L. Meadows

Trends in World Population

20(100 million people)(Estimates)

Birth of humankind(Homo sapiens)

over10one hundred
thousand years ago

Source: Based on the website of the United Nations Population Fund (http://www.unfpa.or.jp/p_graph.html)

4Start of farming andstockbreeding8000Trends in World Production of Three Major Cereals

100

21st century

20th century(100 million people)
Production: 100 million metric tons

7

9.2 billion in 2050

6

90

5
4

Wheat

3

80

Rice

2

Maize

1
1900

(estimate)

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000 (Year)

70

Source: Based on Annual Report on the Promotion of Science andTechnology 2000 , Science and Technology Agency of Japan

6.7 billion in 2007

(Original data: Chikyu Jizoku-no Gijustu , book written by Hiroshi Komiyama on global
sustainable technology; published by Iwanami Shoten, Publishers)

60

6 billion in 199750

5 billion in 1987

Trends in World Consumption of Fossil Fuels
1 million metric tons of oil equivalent

8000
7000

Natural gas

6000
5000
4000

40

Oil

3000
2000

Coal

1000

30

1700

1800

1900

2000 (Year)

2.5 billion in 1950

Source: Based on Annual Report on the Environment in Japan 1998 ,Environment Agency of Japan

20

The Plague strikes Europe

Development ofancient civilizations

3000

BC ← 0 → A D

Start of the Industrial
Revolution

500

1000

1500

2000
(Year)
5

Prologue: Departure from The Limits to Growth

The world s population has been increasing year by year even after the publication of The Limits to Growth and has almost doubled over the past 40 years.
Energy and food consumption have also been on the rise at a rate exceeding
the growth rate of the population. One indicator that we can use to show the
global environmental impact of human socioeconomic activities is the ecological footprint (graph on right). According to this indicator, the impact that theworld s socioeconomic activities, including those of Japan, have had on theenvironment exceeded the Earth s ecological capacity to regenerate as early
as in the middle of the 1980s. In other words, we are consuming resources
faster than they are being regenerated, and so we are exceeding the level ofsustainable development. The latest data (2005) indicates that the resources
we are consuming have exceeded the amount that the Earth can provide in asustainable manner by nearly 30 percent. This fact has many implications for
our future activities.
The Asahi Glass Foundation conducts an annual survey on the degree ofcrisis felt by respondents for the survival of the human race in a global environment that continues to deteriorate, targeting experts throughout the world.
The Foundation has been monitoring their responses over time as indicated by
the hands on the Environmental Doomsday Clock it created. In the first survey
held in 1992, the clock showed 49 minutes past seven, and through the years
the clock has advanced. In 2008, the clock showed 33 minutes past nine. Thisimplies a strong awareness by world experts of the accelerating deteriorationof the global environment. In order to solve global environmental problems,
it is essential that ordinary people deepen their understanding of the present
global environmental situation and start to involve themselves as importantparticipants in voluntary activities.
In this booklet, the circumstances surrounding this creeping crisis are
explained in an easy-to-understand manner with a particular focus on global
warming, and the approaches to be taken in response to this crisis are proposed
based on the results of discussions held at the Round Table Conference.

Source: The Asahi Glass Foundation

6

Trends in the Ecological Footprint of Humankind
The ecological footprint is an indicator thatshows how much we rely on the naturalenvironment in leading our lives. It is ameasure of human demand expressedas the area of biologically productive landand sea needed to supply the required
resources and to absorb CO2 released byburning fossil fuels.

1.2

World bio capacity(1.0 = Limit to sustainable level)

1.0

0.8

0.6

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005
(Year)

Source: Based on Living Planet Report 2006 , WWF

Trends in World Population, Supply of Primary Energy and Consumption of Cereals (1970 onwards)

Population

Supply ofprimaryenergy

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

1 million people

3,699

4,076

4,451

4,855

5,295

5,719

6,124

6,515

Average annual
growth rate

─

2.5%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

1.9%

1.7%

1.6%

1 million toe

5,016

5,776

6,629

7,166

8,120

8,568

9,285

10,537

Average annual
growth rate

─

3.6%

3.5%

2.0%

3.2%

1.4%

2.0%

3.2%

Per-capita
consumption

1.36

1.42

1.49

1.48

1.53

1.50

1.52

1.62

1 million tons

1,108

1,212

1,440

1,553

1,706

1,739

1,859

2,021

─

1.8%

3.5%

1.5%

1.9%

0.4%

1.3%

1.7%

0.30

0.30

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.30

0.30

0.31

(toe/person)

Consumption Average annual
growth rateof cereals
Per-capita
consumption(tons/person)

Source: Based on World Population Prospectus, UN, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 and data on the demand, production and term-end
inventory rates of cereals prepared by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Notes: ─ Cereals include rice, maize, wheat and barley. ─ The average annual growth rate means the average annual growth rate over the previous five
years (e.g.: the five years from 1970 to 1975 for the average annual growth rate for 1975).

7

Contents

Introduction

2

Prologue

Departure from The Limits to Growth4

Chapter 1

A Creeping Crisis

9

Rapid Increase in Energy Consumption

10

Global Warming

12

Responding to the Crisis

17

Chapter 2

Roles of Science and Technology
Scientifically Clarifying Global Warming, and Energy Innovation

1 Scientifically Clarifying Global Warming

19

2 Science and Technology to Seek Benefit for the Earth

21

3 Science and Technology Useful for Industrial
Structural Reforms and the Energy Market

22

Creating a Low-Carbon Society
Mechanism to Foster Initiatives, and Innovation in Related Systems

Final
Chapter

18

28

1 Encouraging Individual Initiatives

29

2 Transforming the Nation s Systems

29

3 Establishing an International Collaboration System

30

Our Vibrant Blue Planet

33

A Creeping Crisis

34

We are Social and Biological Beings

34

A Society where Human and Nature Coexist as Entities Full of Life

35

Approaches Toward Realizing a Blue Planet

36

Special Dialogue

40

Towards Making the Final Proposal

46

Chapter 1

A Creeping
CrisisBritish scientist James E. Lovelock,* proposed the Gaia
hypothesis which insists that the biosphere and thehydrosphere, lithosphere and atmosphere interact witheach other on the Earth to form a balanced system. Thisidea regards the Earth or great nature as a single systemcomprising various elements that interrelate with eachother. It can be said that a sound living environment for
mankind is maintained thanks to the Earth s homeostasis.
Nonetheless, due to global warming and other problems caused by economic growth that heavily depends
on fossil fuels, the Earth s homeostasis is now endangered, and as a result, it is predicted that civilization
will suffer greatly.
If human activity has caused the collapse of the Earth s
homeostasis, we must in response make a concerted
effort as members of the global community to control
the changes made to the system. In this chapter we will
examine the situations involved in this creeping crisis.
* James E. Lovelock received the 1997 Blue Planet Prize.

9Chapter 1 A Creeping Crisis© PPS

Rapid Increase
in Energy
Consumption
We must have energy to maintainour civilization. Then how can we
reduce our consumption of finite
energy resources, while allowing
developing regions to continue
their economic growth? We are
now facing a test of our wisdom.

10

Increasing Consumption of
Fossil Fuels
The Industrial Revolution that began in the 18th
century has brought about today s economic growth,which centers on industrial production. This economic growth would not have been achieved without
the use of natural energy resources such as coal,oil, and natural gas. The world s supply of primaryenergy has been continuously on an upward trend,
having tripled over the past 40 years.
There are, however, substantial regional differencesin the rate of growth of this energy consumption. The
rate has been declining in developed regions (OECDmember states) that have achieved economic growth
and where development has matured. In these countries, efforts are being made to conserve energy bychanging the industrial structure and increasing theenergy efficiency of machinery. On the other hand,the energy consumption growth rate is on the rise indeveloping regions (non-OECD member states), whichstill need to grow their economies and establish
social infrastructures.

Rapid Increase in Energy Consumption

Trends in World Supply of Primary Energy(1 million toe)(%)

12,000OECD (share:%)10,000Comparison of Per-Capita Energy Consumption in
Major Regions

80

Sub-Saharan Africa

25

70

Asia

25

China

28

60
Asia-Pacific

6,000

Middle East

Former Soviet Union

4,000
2,000
0

50

Africa

65

70

75

80

85

90

46

Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa

68

Non-OECD Europe

69

40

Europe30

Former USSR

133

Latin America

20OECD Europe

142

North America

10Japan, South Korea, Australia and
New Zealand
North America and Mexico

95

00

05

0

(Year)

Source: Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Increased Energy Consumption in
Developing Regions
In the Asia-Pacific region in particular, there has
been a substantial increase in energy consumption.
Increased energy consumption in developing regions
is largely attributable to their rapid economic growth.
Since 2003, the world GDP growth rate has remainedat around five percent, while developing countries
in the Asia-Pacific region, as represented by China
and India, have been achieving remarkable economic
growth in recent years. These countries have been
showing a growth rate of around 10 percent, far
exceeding the rates in Japan and Western countries.
Per-capita energy consumption, however, is muchsmaller in developing than developed regions. If,
however, developing countries follow the same
economic growth path as the developed countries,
this will further increase their energy consumption,
which could eventually multiply the world s totalenergy consumption by several times.

Responsibilities of the Developed
RegionsIf more energy is consumed mainly through theuse of fossil fuels, it will lead to more greenhousegases being emitted, which will cause further global
warming. This could also accelerate the depletion of
resources whose reserves are limited. As developing
countries achieve more growth, they will use moreresources, but the developed countries should not

180
281

50

0

100

150

200

250

300

Per-capita energy supply (GJ/person)

Source: Based on World Energy Assessment 2004 overview , UNDP, 2004

Trends in Economic Growth Rates
12
10
GDP growth rate (%)

8,000

China

8
6
United States

EU

2
0

World total

India

4

2000

2001

2002

Japan
2003

2004

2005

2006 (Year)

Source: Based on World Economic Outlook Database for April 2007 , IMF

blame the developing countries for this.
Because, in the past, the developed countries
consumed a vast amount of energy and emitted highlevels of CO2 in achieving their growth, thus developing countries do have the right to achieve growth in
the same manner. Accordingly, in the preface to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, it states, Recognizing that all countries,
especially developing countries, need access toresources required to achieve sustainable social andeconomic development, ─ their energy consumption
will need to grow ─.
While achieving growth in developing regions, inorder to realize a reduction in the consumption of
resources and energy, it is essential that the developed regions realize a substantial shift in the ﬁelds ofenergy supply and energy conservation, and support
developing regions with the innovative technologies
they have developed.

11Chapter 1 A Creeping Crisis© ROGER BRAITHWAITE / Still Pictures

Global Warming
The world began to recognize
the threat of global warming.
The causes and effects havebeen identified scientifically andnow countries are implementing
various measures to tackle thisproblem. In this section, we will
give an insight into the present
level of global warming using
the latest data available to us.

12

The Basics of Global Warming
Thanks to a range of research efforts, scientists havemade steady progress in clarifying the causes ofglobal warming. In the following, as the ﬁrst step indealing with global warming, let s ﬁrst brieﬂy touch
on what global warming is and how it is caused.
The Earth is exposed to radiant heat from the Sun,
which warms the ground surface and oceans, butalmost the same amount of heat is radiated from the
Earth out into space. In the atmosphere, there aregases called greenhouse gases such as CO2 andmethane, which absorb a part of the heat radiatedfrom the Earth and emit it back onto the groundsurface. As a result, the ground surface temperature
is kept at a stable level. However, as the level ofatmospheric greenhouse gases increases, the amountof heat emitted back onto the ground surface also
increases, and this causes a rise in the temperatureof the atmosphere and oceans and raises the averagetemperatures on Earth. This is global warming.

Global Warming

Trends in Atmospheric CO2
(ppm)

380

Observation data collectedby the Scripps Institute of
Oceanography(data up to April 1974)→ → Observation data collected by

the U.S. National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration(data from May 1974)

360

Long-term trends
340

320

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010
(Year)

Source: Based on the website of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mio.html)*1. Charles D. Keeling received the 1993 Blue Planet Prize.
*2. This panel was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Researchers participate in the panel from all over the world to makescientific, technological, social, and economic assessments of the
global warming caused by greenhouse gases, and the panel, as its
primary role, is committed to making the results of their assessments,
including knowledge and information, widely available to policymakers and the general public. It is said that about 450 writers and about
800 cooperators from a total of about 130 countries were engaged in
preparing the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report .

Trends In Annual Global Mean Temperatures
(℃)

0.5

14.5

0.0

14.0

-0.5

13.5
1850

1900

1950

2000 (Year)

Estimated annual global mean
temperatures (absolute values)

The fact that the atmospheric concentration of CO2,
which is a greenhouse gas, has been increasing has
been demonstrated through a variety of observations.
In particular, the precise measurements of atmospheric CO2 by Charles D. Keeling,1 a meteorologist,and others are well known. These measurements weremade at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration s Earth System Research Laboratory
located in Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The results were
presented in a graph called the Keeling Curve,
which demonstrates that, behind the cyclic seasonalchanges due to the growth level of plants, CO2 levelsin the atmosphere have been increasing year by year.
Dr. Keeling made great efforts to continue his observations at the Laboratory and collect CO2 data overmany years, and his achievements have provided
very important information for scientiﬁc discussions
on global warming.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report announced
in 2007 by the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2 has concluded thatthe increase in this greenhouse gas is very likely
to be attributable to human activity, whereas the
IPCC Third Assessment Report concluded that it was
likely.

Also, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report , the mean global temperatures rose by about
0.7°
C over the past century, and in particular, rose at
double the pace over the past 50 years compared tothe previous 100 years.

Difference from 1961-1995 average

Increase in CO2 emissions from Human Activities

Annual values
Smoothed series (10 years)
Range of uncertainties based on present scientific findings(5-95% decadal error bars)

Source: Based on data available at the website of Japan Center for
Climate Change Actions:http://www.jccca.org/content/view/1730/900/(Original data: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)

13

Chapter 1 A Creeping Crisis

Examples of Impacts Associated with Changes in the Global Average Temperature
0

1

2

3

4

5℃

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Water

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
Signiﬁcant extinctions around the globe

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction
Increased coral bleaching

Most corals bleached

Ecosystems

Widespread coral mortality~40% of ecosystems affected
Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net
carbon source:~15%
Increasing species range shifts and wildﬁre risk

Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

Complex, localized negative impacts on smallholders, subsistence farmers and ﬁshers

Food

Productivity of all cereals
decreases in low latitudes

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes
Tendencies for some cereal productivity to increase at mid to high latitudes

Cereal productivity to decrease in some regions

Increased damage from ﬂoods and storms

CoastsAbout 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
Millions more people could experience coastal ﬂooding each year
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

HealthIncreased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, ﬂoods and droughts
Changed distribution of some disease vectors
Substantial burden on health services

Source: Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report , IPCC

Predicted Impacts of Global Warming
As for the impacts of global warming, it is predictedthat if temperature rises by 2 ℃ or more from thebaseline period of 1980 to 1999, one to two billion
people on the globe will face a serious shortage ofwater, and in the ecosystems, up to 30 percent ofspecies will face an increased risk of extinction, unless appropriate measures are taken to deal with the
problems. Also, productivity of cereals will decreaseat low latitudes and damages from floods and storms
will increase in coastal areas. Furthermore, more
people will suffer from infectious diseases. Global
warming will thus give significant impacts acrossa range of fields. Moreover, the sea level has been
rising due to global warming and it is predicted thatthe increase will eventually reach 59 cm. Alreadycountries like Tuvalu and the Maldives are facing thedanger of being submerged due to global warming.

14

Rapid Deforestation: Threat to a
Balanced Atmospheric Composition
There are also concerns about deforestation, whichmight increase emissions of CO2. Thanks to forests,
oxygen and carbon are well circulated on the Earth:plants help maintain the level of CO2 in the atmosphere through photosynthesis.
In recent years, there has been rapid deforestation
due to conversion to farmland, increase in the areaof farmland created by the slash-and-burn method of
cultivation, inappropriate commercial logging andfrequent outbreaks of forest fires. Emission of CO2
due to deforestation totaled about six billion metrictons a year in the world, which is equivalent to morethan 20 percent of the CO2 emissions from the use offossil fuels (26 billion metric tons annually).
This implies that to prevent global warming, it isimportant to plant trees and prevent deforestation in
addition to taking measures to substantially reduceGlobal Warming

OceaniaSouth America

EuropeAfricaAsia(1,000 hectares/year)

World total

Trends in Global Forestation

North and Central
Americas

the consumption of fossil fuels. According to the
IPPC Fourth Assessment Report , CO 2 emissions
might possibly be reduced by 1.3 to 4.2 billion metrictons by planting trees and preventing deforestation.
At present, however, we cannot say that sufficientmeasures are being taken for this. In some forests inregions such as South America and Africa, reckless
exploitation and logging are still continuing, and thearea covered by forests on the globe continues todecline.
Forests play a range of roles: they help prevent
desertification of surrounding areas by their water-retaining function, they provide shade, mitigate climatechange through transpiration, and provide home for avariety of living organisms. If deforestation continues
to progress, some areas will suffer more serious
desertification, the atmospheric heat distribution willchange, which will in turn change regional and global
climates, and the balance of a number of ecosystems
will be disrupted. Forests are thus useful in maintaining a balance in the Earth s ecosystems and are indeed
important resources that need protecting.

2,000− 2,000− 4,000

1990-2000
2000-2005

0− 6,000

Accelerated
decrease− 8,000− 10,000

Source: Based on Annual Report on Trends of Forest and Forestry(Fiscal 2005), Forestry Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries of Japan© Le Hoai Phuong -UNEP / Still Pictures

Towards Reducing Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
The world is reaching a consensus: in order to prevent global warming, it is necessary to substantiallyreduce global greenhouse gas emissions on a
medium- to long-term basis. According to the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report , to stabilize the level ofatmospheric greenhouse gases at 450 ppm, it isessential to curb greenhouse gas emissions
downward in the next 10 to 15 years and halve the2000 level by 2050. In particular, the Annex I
Countries* are required to curtail their greenhousegas emissions by 25 to 40 percent of the 1990 levelby 2020, and by 80 to 95 percent by 2050.
* Annex I Countries refer to the Annex I Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. These countries havenumerical emission reduction targets and are listed in Annex B of
the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, they are Australia, Austria, Belarus,
Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark,Estonia, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and theUnited States(Original data: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 , FAO)

15

Chapter 1 A Creeping Crisis

Under these circumstances, the Council of theEuropean Union basically agreed on a policy toachieve at least a 20 percent reduction ( and a 30
percent reduction depending upon international agreements)of greenhouse gas emissions from the 1990 level by
2020.
Also, at the G8 Summit held in Heiligendammin 2007, participating countries agreed to seriously
consider making efforts in cutting global greenhousegas emissions by half by 2050. At this Summit, Japan
introduced the Cool Earth 50 plan, which encourages the world to set a common target to halve global
CO2 emissions from the present level by 2050. The
plan also proposes the following three principles forthe formulation of a post-Kyoto Protocol framework:1 ) All major emitters must participate, moving
beyond Kyoto.
2 ) The framework must be flexible and diverse
because each country has different circumstances.
3) The framework will have to enable compatibility
between environmental protection and economic
growth.
Despite these initiatives, negotiations have not beensuccessfully concluded regarding the greenhouse gas
emission targets after the end of the first commitment
period (2008 to 2012) of the Kyoto Protocol, including
negotiations made at the 14th Conference of theParties to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (COP14) held in Poznan, Poland
in December 2008.

16

Global WarmingChapter 2

Responding
to the Crisis
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change effective since 1994, developed countries set their greenhouse gas emission targets in the
Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005. These
countries have been implementing measures to attaintheir respective targets. At the G8 Summit held in Heiligendamm, participating leaders agreed to seriously
examine a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions
by at least 50 percent by 2050, as mentioned already inthis document. These initiatives represent the activities
conducted by the international community to deal withchanges made to the homeostasis of the Earth.
For the effective implementation of these activities,
it is essential for all individuals and companies toparticipate. The Round Table Conference intensively
discussed the requirements to be met by science andtechnology and social systems to help individuals andcompanies to take actions based on reasonable decision
making. Here, reasonable means both economicallyreasonable and reasonable in terms of the sustainability of the global society. In this chapter, we set forthdesirable directions for science and technology andsocial systems into the future.

17

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation© National Institute for Environmental Studies

Roles of Science andTechnology
Scientifically Clarifying Global
Warming, and Energy Innovation
Today, the reasons that we can lead convenient andcomfortable lives lie largely in the development ofscience and technology. In return for living in comfort, however, we have begun to face the problem ofglobal warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions,which is a negative legacy for humankind.
Fossil fuels such as coal and oil which are thecause of CO2 increase in the atmosphere but arevery useful resources, enabling us to produce energy
in an efficient manner. Since the beginning of theIndustrial Revolution, we have therefore been heavily
dependant on fossil fuels in promoting technologicaldevelopment and building social infrastructure.
Against this backdrop, it was not until recently that
we acquired the scientific understanding that ourdependence on fossil fuels increased the greenhousegas emission, which brought about the climatechange. We were too proud of our achievements inliving comfortably to recognize the gravity of global
warming and it took us a long time before we becameaware of the negative aspects.
Science and technology have thus indirectly caused
global warming, but paradoxically, it has to be18

science and technology that can provide solutions to
the problem. In order to deal with global warming
appropriately, it is necessary to further clarify themechanism and causes of the phenomenon in ascientific manner. It is virtually a proven fact that
global warming has been recently aggravated due toincreased greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2
emissions from human activities. Global warming,
however, is a complex phenomenon influenced by avariety of natural factors in the short and long term,
and we need to carry out more research to further
understand the phenomenon.
Moreover, we need to deepen our understanding of
how global warming changes the global climate andwhat impact it will have on humankind. If sciencecan provide more answers to these questions, more
appropriate approaches would become clear to tackle
the problem and we will have more versatile options
to deal with them.
It is not enough just to follow the current trend inscientific and technological developments to solve
the problems of climate change. Innovations that candrastically change our common knowledge in thefields of science and technology are required. In particular, we need to promote fundamental innovationin energy-related technologies in order to help protect
the global environment and ensure the sustainable
development of human society.

Scientific Explanations for Global Warming

Global Warming Mechanism
Anthropogenic impact

Radiation from the Earth

Radiation from the Sun

Atmosphere

Ground surface

Deforestation

Industrial activities
Commercial
and residential
activities

Decrease in CO2
absorption

Consumption offossil fuels

Natural impact
Changes in Solarradiation

Breathing by
animals andplantsVolcanic
activity

Absorption and re-emissions
by greenhouse gases

Increase ingreenhouse gases

Rise in global temperatures

Various impacts

The Role of Science and Technology 1

Scientifically
Clarifying
Global Warming
The problem of global warming
cannot be solved without ascientific understanding of theentire mechanism behind thephenomenon. In light of the factthat global warming involves
complex factors and is difficult
to clarify, it is essential to collectextensive amounts of data andverify it intensively.

Identifying the Impacts of Global
WarmingGlobal warming and climate change are causedby both natural and human factors. Natural factors
include changes in the atmospheric circulation
pattern, oceanic changes, blockage of sunshine due
to an increase in atmospheric aerosol originatingfrom volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity.
Human factors include an increase in CO2 and othergreenhouse gas emissions associated with humanactivity, an increase in airborne fine particles in theemissions from factories and automobiles, and deforestation. It is thought that these factors combined in acomplex manner cause climate change.
According to the IPCC report, recent global warming is determined to be largely due to human factors
such as greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, apossibility that climate change might be exacerbatedas a result of more complex combinations of multiple
factors is also considered.

19

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation

Then, what activities are necessary to reach a comprehensive and detailed understanding of the global
warming mechanism, including the impact of natural
factors?
Specifically, we need to accumulate observation
data on a continual basis and through the verificationof simulation results made based on those data, weneed to compile and tabulate the base data on the
degree of impact on climate change according to thefactors which may be the cause of climate change.
In addition, it is necessary to estimate the effects on
climate change in total by setting future scenarios
on the outcomes of complex interactions between
the factors and on the options that we may choose in
response to global warming.
Also, in order to implement effective measures

20© NASAagainst climate change, it is essential to understandthe gravity and impact of the problem in a precise
manner. It is important to analyze the impact of
global warming on global climate change in total andthe impact of climate change on the global community. The IPCC has announced its prediction results
regarding the impact of global warming. Specifically,
the Panel predicts a rise in sea levels, the occurrenceof water shortages in some areas and floods in otherareas as a result of the unbalanced distribution of
precipitation, outbreaks of infectious diseases andchanges in the yield of agricultural products and marine resources. In order to examine specific measures
to be taken for each of these problems, we first needto make a more detailed prediction of their impacts.

Scientific Explanations for Global Warming ｜ Science and Technology to Seek Benefit for the Ear th

The Role of Science and Technology 2

Science andTechnology to Seek
Benefit for the
Earth*To achieve a low-carbon societythat does not depend on fossil
fuels, we must pool our deepest
wisdom and press forward withresearch and development thatenvisage the long-term benefits
for the Earth. At the same time,
we need to reflect on how toreform our lifestyles and takeon the efforts with the collective
wisdom of all humankind.
* Benefits to the Earth refer to the long-term benefits to thebiosphere, rather than the short-term benefits to humankind.

Research and Development with aLong-Range Viewpoint
We should not only look at the technologies that are
regarded highly to have the potential for practical use
but also those future technologies that are anticipatedto be realized in the next hundred or so years, andthus conduct basic research. The technologies that are
expected to be developed in the future include technology to use solar energy in cosmic space, nuclear
fusion technology, and transmission technology thatuses superconductivity.
Technological problems with these technologies are
so difficult to resolve that research and developmentin those fields will not progress easily, but theyshould be conducted with a long-range viewpoint forthe sustainability of the global society.
In order to break away from dependence on fossil
fuels, we must go through significant scientific andtechnological innovation. To achieve significant innovation, we need to create a science and technologythat not only seeks the short-term benefits brought
about to industry but also the long-range benefits
for the Earth. Market competition might bring anefficient and effective technology in the short term.
But science and technology that is useful for thesustainability of the Earth and humankind can be said
to be created basically through political decisions toaccelerate research and development and evaluations
based on long-range viewpoints.

Sharing All Our Wisdom, Including
Expertise in Human and Social Sciences
To formulate and implement highly effective
measures to fundamentally solve the global warming
problem, it is not sufficient to use the knowledge
only in the fields of natural science. It is also indispensable to utilize findings in the human and social
sciences, which will in turn promote the effective
use of science and technology. For example, in orderto predict the impact of global warming on society,devise methods to utilize scientific and technologicalsolutions as core measures against global warming,
popularize relevant technologies in society and makesocial evaluations of the technologies, it is necessary
to call for the cooperation of researchers engaged in
the fields of the human and social sciences.
In the future, we need to encourage and vitalize
creative activities to pioneer new intellectual fields
by establishing science and technology seeking
benefits for the Earth as the theme and accelerating
information sharing and expansion of research
networks beyond the framework of disciplinary
fields. To this end, it is urgently needed to encourage
suitable levels of capital investment, to build good21

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation

research environments and to develop the necessary
human resources.

Creating New Lifestyles, and Scienceand Technology
Even though significant developments in science andtechnology are expected in the future by promoting
consolidation of wisdom beyond the boundariesof the natural, human and social sciences, it will takea long time to solve global environmental problems
through science and technology.
Along with these efforts, we can immediately begin
reviewing our present resource-consuming lifestyles
and how our social structures, customs and cultures
should be and a lot could be achieved through such
reforms. Each and every one of us who is enjoying a
comfortable and convenient life, has the responsibility to contribute to solving our global environmental
problems.
However, when we engage ourselves in lifestylereforms, if the idea is to lower our present living
standards or to sacrifice convenience in order toconserve energy, many of us will feel discouraged
and will be unable to maintain the motivation needed
to continue reforms. It is rather better for us to create
a new set of value and think about how our lifestyleshould be with the idea that we are generating change
towards enjoying life.
Then it is important to review our way of life byconsolidation of wisdom not only for scientists
and engineers, but including all of us with a drastically new idea that breaks the existing framework.
Thence, we need a viewpoint to think about what
science and technology that is being considered tosupport new lifestyles can do.

22

The Role of Science and Technology 3

Science and Technology
Useful for Industrial
Structural Reforms andthe Energy Market
In order to solve global warming
and energy-related problems, itis necessary to reform our energy
supply and demand structures. To
realize a low-carbon society, we needto have technology development
strategies and technology designconcepts.

Science and Technology that Will Benefit the Ear th
The Contribution of Science and Technology to Structural Reforms in the Energy Market and Industr yLife Cycle CO2 Emission Intensity
by Energy Source in Japan(kg-CO2 /kWh)1.2
1.0 0.975
0.8
0.6

Combustion
Facility/operation

0.742
0.608
0.887
0.704

0.478

0.088

0.038

0.130

0.111

0.053

0.029

0.022

0.015

0.011

Coal

Oil

LNG

LNG

Solar

Wind power

NuclearGeothermal

Hydro

0.4

0.519
0.408

0.2
0

Source: Environmental Action Plan by the Japanese Electric Utility
Industry , Federation of Electric Power Companies in Japan(Original data: Evaluation of Power Generation Technologies Based on Life Cycle CO2Emissions (Report No. Y99009) by Hondo et al., Central Research Institute of ElectricPower Industry)© DAVID WOODFALL / Still Pictures

Shifting to Renewable Energy Sources
At present, a range of renewable energy sources
exist, including hydraulic power, wind power, solar
power, geothermal heat and biomass.* Some of theseenergy sources are already in the phase of practicaluse and others are still under research and development, but all of them have one merit in common:
they do not generate CO2 in the power generation
phase and therefore do not contribute to an increase
in atmospheric CO2.
Whereas the use of fossil fuels accompany exploitation in remote areas and long distance transportation,
power from renewable energy sources can be generated at locations near areas of consumption, which
encourages a regional distribution of energy. The useof renewable energy sources thus contributes to theutilization of local natural resources and encourages
the local production and consumption of energy.
Renewable energy sources, however, do havedisadvantages, including low energy density, presenthigh equipment costs and vulnerability to natural
conditions.
Power generation using solar power and wind

power, which are seen as promising renewableenergy sources, has been actively introduced mainlyin the developed countries. The output, however,varies depending upon the meteorological conditions,
including the wind volume and weather. Because ofthis problem, it is difficult to use renewable energy
sources alone to generate power for regular use. It istherefore necessary to combine multiple renewableenergy sources and conventional energy sources
to ensure a stable supply of electricity, taking into
consideration the local characteristics.
In the future, it is anticipated that we will be able
to make more effective use of natural energy thanks
to further development of technologies, including
technologies to store electricity in storage batteries
and transfer electricity through the transmission
network with lower transmission losses.
* Biomass refers to resources derived from living organisms. Powergeneration using resources derived from plants also produce CO2, but it
is carbon neutral because the same amount of CO2 was absorbed by theplants as they grew. The use of such resources is therefore thought tocontribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions. The same applies to power
generation using methane, which is derived from the waste excreted byplant-eating animals.

23

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation

It is essential to build a firm foundation for thepeaceful use of nuclear power by combining initiatives taken in the fields of both the natural and social
sciences.
Here it should be noted that not all members of theRound Table Conference agree with the expanded useof nuclear energy. There are some who are against it,
and others who think it necessary to examine carefully the safety and social acceptance aspects of nuclear
power.
© PPS

World Reserves of Energy

Use of Nuclear Power as an Energy
Supply Source
When considering as far ahead as 2050, humankind
will not be able to meet all their energy demands
from renewable energy sources alone. It is therefore
necessary to continue power generation using fossil
fuels and nuclear power.
Nuclear power generation does not emit CO2 andensures the supply of large amounts of electricity
in a stable manner. Moreover, if technology anddevelopment for fast breeder reactors further advance,
it will enable more effective use of plutonium and in
the future, it may have the potential to significantly
relax the resource restrictions with the increase in resources recyclability. However, we have to meet many
challenges before we can freely encourage the use of
nuclear energy. For example, it is necessary to ensure
the safety of nuclear power plants, solve problems
concerning nuclear waste and ensure the peaceful use of
nuclear energy based on the principle of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. There must also be a deeper
understanding of the use of nuclear power among thegeneral public, and countries need to cooperate to ensure the safe and peaceful use of nuclear power, while
researchers press forward with the development of
next-generation nuclear power generation technologies.
What is important is to foster comprehensive researchand the development of human resources for the safeand peaceful use of nuclear power.

24

Reserves/production ratio (for oil, natural gas and coal) =Proven reserve/annual production
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Reserves/production ratio for uranium = Proven reserve/amount required in 2004 (based on the actual result of
nuclear power generation: 2,638 TWh) Source: Uranium
2005: Resources, Production and Demand , OECD
The life period of uranium is estimated to reach about
2,570 years by the practical use of plutonium in a fast
breeder reactor.
Source: Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and
Demand, OECD

65 years

41 years
1200.7 billion
barrelsOil

At the end of 2005

155 years

909.1
billionmetrictons

85 years

Coal

Uranium

180
trillionm3
Natural gas

At the end of 2005

At the end of 2005

4.74
millionmetrictons

In Jan. 2005

Source: Based on the website of the Institute of Applied Energy in Japan:
http://www.iae.or.jp/energyinfo/energydat/data 1008.html(Original data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 and Uranium 2005: Resources,
Production and Demand , OECD

Technologies that Support Structural
ReformFossil fuels account for about 80 percent of the present supply of primary energy and will remain important energy sources in the short and medium term.
With regard to power generation by the use of fossil
fuels, options for the creation of a low-carbon society
include improvements to power generation efficiency
and the development of carbon capture and storage(CCS) technologies.
In promoting CCS technologies, however, there
are concerns about the behavior of stored CO2 andits impact on the environment, and so it is critical to
make deeper studies on the environmental impact
and safety of the technologies to improve their social
acceptability.

The Contribution of Science and Technology to Structural Reforms in the Energy Market and Industr y

The Sleipner project implemented by Norwegian oil and gas companies in the North Sea Oil Fields is the world s first commercial carbon capture andstorage project, where CO2 contained in natural gas is captured and injected into saline aquifers 1,000 meters under the sea at a rate of 2,800 metrictons a day, using large marine equipment.

Improving the Efﬁciency of theEnergy Utilization System
To conserve more energy, it is important to boost the
efﬁciency of the entire energy utilization system, in
addition to improving the efficiency of individualmachineries. To this end, we need to build thesystems for the cascade* use of energy and resources,
and foster energy conservation through highly functional manufacturing. We must also diversify energy
supply methods according to the quality of energy
required by different devices, including IT devices
that need a stable supply of high quality electricity.
Moreover, end users are requested to make efforts
to conserve energy, which will help reduce the totalenergy consumption.
It is essential in using limited energy resources
effectively to enable the cascade use of thermalenergy, including both high-temperature and lowtemperature energy. For example, natural gas
cogeneration systems use high-temperature energy
derived from the combustion of utility gas as thedriving force for power generators, and utilize
the waste heat from the process for steam and hot

water, thereby achieving the highly efficient use ofheat. Also, heat pump technology has recently been
attracting much attention as a highly efficient technology that uses atmospheric heat to produce energythat is several times larger than the input.
* A cascade usually means a series of small waterfalls, but in theenvironmental ﬁeld, it means to use the lower-quality resources andenergy wasted in the use of high-quality resources and energy for otherpurposes.

Example of the Cascade Use of Heat
1500℃ Engine

Electricity

1100℃ Gas turbine

Electricity

700℃ Steam turbine

Electricity, motor

300℃ SteamHeat utilization

100℃

Power

(in factories)

High-temperature Heat utilizationwater(in buildings)

Mid-temperature
80℃ water［Usage］

Heat utilization(hot-water supply)

Cooling,heating andhot-water
supply50℃ Low-temperature Space heating
water

Source: Based on the website of the Japanese Ministry of Land, Transport,
Infrastructure and Tourism: http://mlit.go.jp/common/000018919.pdf

25

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation

Amory B. Lovins *, who is an energy scientist,
insists on the importance of energy conservation by
consumers at the downstream end, which will help
improve resource efficiency and contribute to the
optimization of the entire supply system and enable
more economical operation. For example, in the
supply of electricity, most of the electrical energy islost before it reaches the end user, and if the end user
consumes the electricity delivered to them in a more
efficient manner, it will lead to substantial energy
conservation across the entire supply system. By
saving electricity and contributing to improving thesystem efficiency, consumers will also increase theirawareness of the importance of resource conservation.
* Amory B. Lovins received the 2007 Blue Planet Prize.

Global Popularization of Energy
Conservation Technologies
It is also important to popularize energy-efficientmachines and systems effectively. In most developed
countries, the energy consumption efficiency ofmachineries has been improved through technologicalinnovation. In particular, Japan s Top Runner System
is highly evaluated as a very effective means ofpromoting technological development. It is desirable
that similar systems be introduced on a global scale toencourage private sector companies to compete in thedevelopment of energy conservation technologies.
Across the world, there is still much room toimprove energy efficiency. However, to achieve this,excellent technologies possessed by the developed
countries must be transferred to the developing
regions. The Japanese manufacturing industry

Losses at Each Stage in the Supply System
Fuel energy
input (coal):
100 units

Transmission
and
Motor
distribution
losses:losses:
10 percent
9 percentPower plantlosses:70 percent

Drivetrain
losses:2 percentPumplosses:
25 percent

Energyoutput:9.5 units
Throttle
losses:33 percent

Pipe
losses:
20 percent

Reference: Effect of Higher Efﬁciency at the Downstream End by Dr. Amory B. Lovins

From the power plant to an industrial pipe, inefﬁciencies along the way whittle the energy inputof the fuel̶set at 100 arbitrary units in this example̶by more than 90 percent, leaving only 9.5
units of energy delivered as ﬂuid ﬂow through the pipe. But small increases in end-use efﬁciency
can reverse these compounding losses. For instance, saving one unit of output energy by reducing
friction inside the pipe will cut the needed fuel input by 10 units. The effect of saving at thedownstream end is thus huge. Also, it becomes possible to make all the upstream components
smaller and simpler.
Source: Based on a lecture given by Dr. Amory Lovins at the time he received the 2007 Blue Planet Prize

26

The Contribution of Science and Technology to Structural Reforms in the Energy Market and Industr y

has particularly outstanding energy conservation
technologies, and the use of these technologies incountries and regions with lower energy efficiency
could lead to great results.
To this end, problems regarding intellectual
property rights and cost sharing must be solved, andthen the infrastructure should be established in thedeveloping countries to which the technologies willbe transferred for the development of necessary
human resources, organizations and systems. If thedeveloping countries do not have the technologicaland economic abilities to use the transferred technologies in a well-managed manner, the effect of thetransfer will be significantly limited.
Achieving Energy Conservation Effects throughthe Top Runner System
Product

Improvement rate (actual results)

Air conditioners

67.8% (From ﬁscal 1997 to ﬁscal 2004)

Electric refrigerators

55.2% (From ﬁscal 1998 to ﬁscal 2004)

Electric freezers

29.6% (From ﬁscal 1998 to ﬁscal 2004)

Gasoline-powered passenger cars 22.8% (From ﬁscal 1995 to ﬁscal 2005)
Diesel-powered trucks

21.7% (From ﬁscal 1995 to ﬁscal 2005)

Automatic vending machines

37.3% (From ﬁscal 2000 to ﬁscal 2005)

Fluorescent lamps

35.6% (From ﬁscal 1997 to ﬁscal 2005)

Copiers

72.5% (From ﬁscal 1997 to ﬁscal 2006)

Source: Based on reference materials (No. 3, dated May 2008) prepared
for the fourth joint meeting of the groups on the reuse and recyclingof home electric appliances between the Committee on Waste
Management and Recycling of the Japanese Central Environment
Council and the Waste Prevention and Recycling Subcommittee of theJapanese Industrial Structure Council s Environment Committee© Hartmut Schwarzbach / argus / Still Pictures

Reducing CO2 Emissions by Using Current BAT Technologies in the Steel Industry
CO2 reduction potential (Mt- CO2)

160

(Estimation method)

140

Recovery of converter gas
Continuous casting
TRT
CDQ

120
100
80

Global CO2 reductions potential in 2020
=Σ［Energy conservation basic unit x production
in 2020 x (targeted BAT diffusion rate – current
BAT diffusion rate) x CO2 emission per energy
consumption］

60

Production in 2020 is estimated by assuming
the GDP growth rate for the year andmultiplying it by the production in 2004.

40
20
0

North
America

EuropeFormer
USSR

South
Korea

China

India

Other
developing
countries
Source: Based on reference materials (No. 6, dated October 2005) distributed at the meeting of the Expert Committee to Study Future
Framework of the Global Environment Subcommittee, the Environment Committee of the Japanese Industrial Structure Council
Note: BAT stands for best available technology.

27

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Roles of Science and Technology ̶ Scientific Explanation of Global Warming, and Energy Innovation© PPS

Creating a Low-Carbon
Society
Mechanism to Foster Initiatives, andInnovation in Related Systems

A low-carbon society cannot be achieved simply
through progress in science and technology. All
parties involved, including individuals, companies
and governments must change their ways of thinking
and fundamentally change their ways of doing thingsin order to carry out activities in ways that take theenvironment into account.
Global environmental problems, represented by
global warming, provide a serious challenge, but thethreats posed are not clearly visible in our daily lives.
It is therefore important to visualize how our individual lives are interrelated with global warming andother problems to encourage all the parties involved
to take stronger actions to solve the problem.
Each and every citizen must make effective useof this visualized information to achieve results in28

their lives. They should raise their environmental
awareness and take action to build a sustainable society. Concerted efforts made steadily by everyone will
greatly contribute to attaining this ambitious goal.
Governments, on the other hand, should build thenecessary systems to encourage people to be moreenvironmentally aware and reform their attitude to
the environment. The role of governments must be toexert strong leadership to establish incentive systems(tax breaks and subsidies) and systems that promote
the use of renewable sources of energy.
It is also important to have bilateral and multilateral
cooperation between governments to solve global
environmental problems. As for anti-global warming
measures, rules have already been established to urge
each country to take specific actions, as represented
by the rules set out in the Kyoto Protocol. Also forenergy problems, governments should make moves
towards better international cooperation. Specifically,
they need to build an international resource management system for the protection and effective use oflimited resources and to establish an internationalframework for the joint development of new energy
technologies.

Encouraging Individual Initiatives ｜ Transforming the Nation s Systems

Creating a Low-Carbon Society 1

Encouraging
Individual Initiatives
Educating Individuals Who Can Make
the Judgment
In order to prevent global warming, it is indispensable that each and every one of us stack up ourefforts to do that. For that, it is important that eachindividual obtain accurate information on global
warming and acquire the ablility to make theirown independent judgment. We need to study how
environmental education ought to be so thatpeople could take appropriate actions upon acquiring
information on changes in their societal situationand many related matters. It is essential to build an
educational system in which all the actors in the
global community, including individuals, companies,
other organizations and governments can recognize

Creating a Low-Carbon Society 2

Transforming the
Nation s Systems
Building a System to Boost Innovation
At present, it is still costly to use renewable energy
sources for power generation, and in expanding the
introduction of these energy sources, it is necessary
for governments to implement the appropriate
political measures. The details and effects of thesemeasures depend upon who will bear the extra costs
of using renewable sources of energy.
In Germany, power companies are mandated topurchase the electricity generated by costly power

environmental problems and acquire the skills tocontribute to solving those problems.

Visualizing Invisible Threats
Today, many individuals are already aware of thethreats to the global environment, but the causes
and outcomes of these threats are not clearly visible
in their daily lives. They cannot therefore find the
motivation to change their lifestyles, and some evenfeel reluctant to make such changes.
For individuals to take appropriate action for
the environment based on their own judgment,
it is important to provide them with appropriate
information and enable them to visualize invisible
environmental problems, which will in turn raise
their environmental awareness and their ability tomake decisions. It is also important to provide themwith appropriate social and economical incentives tosupport them in their activities to preserve the environment. At the same time, individuals must be able
to recognize the impact and effect of their lifestyle on
the environment.

generation using renewable energy sources at fixed
costs, but they can pass the extra costs on to individual and corporate consumers by raising their electricity
charges. Because of this system, introduction of solar
power generation has been steadily progressing in
the country, and now Germany is ranked number one
in terms of its use of solar power generation. It is
important to note that the general public has accepted
this system, in which end consumers have to bear the
extra costs. It is said that a national consensus has
been reached because of strong political leadership,
and people are now expecting that expanding theuse of renewable energy sources will make it more
economical, and that this will then further accelerate
its use. In other words, the German initiative has
demonstrated to people the possibility that the
expanded use of and advancement of technologies
for renewable energy sources will eventually lower

29

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Creating a Low-Carbon Society ̶ Mechanism to Foster Initiatives, and Innovation in Related Systems

the cost of using these resources. Although situations differ by country, this initiative taken by theGerman government provides a good example for all
countries in promoting the introduction of renewableenergy sources.
It is also important for energy consumers to
be given the option to use low-carbon energy inpreventing global warming. To this end, energy
suppliers must make efforts to increase their use ofrenewable energy sources wherever the local naturaland socioeconomic environment makes this possible,and diversify the energy market by facilitating power
generation using hydraulic power, wind power, solar
power and biomass so that consumers can choose touse low-carbon energy sources.

Regional Initiatives to Create
Communities in Harmony with Nature
Our use of science and technology has substantiallychanged the natural environment. Science andtechnology have made our lives more convenientand enabled us to expand the scope of our activities.
However, this has been at great cost and alreadythe impact it has had on the environment exceeds
the Earth s regenerative capacity. It is time we realized that there are limits to what the Earth and weourselves can cope with and reduce the impact of ouractivities on the Earth to a level within the regenerative capacity of its environment. For that purpose,
we must face nature as a living thing, and we needto understand that implementing measures that are
inherent and suited to regional features are vital. We
cannot live without the blessings of nature. Eachregion has its unique natural characteristics and has
built up its culture in its own natural environment.
We have to reach an understanding of nature aroundus and live in harmony with it, avoiding inflicting
damage on its sound natural mechanisms. To achievethis, it is necessary to take regional initiatives tocreate communities that are in harmony with nature,
rather than creating a system to mange the environment in a centralized manner.

30

Creating a Low-Carbon Society 3

Establishing an
International
Collaboration System
International Peace Building throughCooperation in the Energy Field
Looking back on the past, humankind has repeated
its history of war and peace, and an important
viewpoint in considering building a sustainable
society is how we keep peace. In this context,
the international community needs to establish

Transforming the Nation s Systems｜ Establishing an International Collaboration System© Uniphoto Pressa collaborative system, particularly international
peaceful collaborative realationships in the environmental and energy fields.
For example, France is far ahead of other countries
in terms of nuclear power generation, and the country
is supplying electricity produced by nuclear power
plants to neighboring countries. Those countries
have thus built relationships of mutual reliancethrough the supply of energy, and these relationships
may contribute to mitigating friction in the military
field, providing means to maintaining peace. In
Europe, countries have a highly functional regional
community, namely the European Union. Similarlyin the Asian region, in order to support a peace
keeping effort, shouldn t Japan establish cooperative
relationships with the countries in Southeast Asia andNortheast Asia in the energy and environment fields?

Such cooperative relationships in the Asian region
will help to popularize highly efficient technologies
in the region, which will in turn help to create a lowcarbon society, prevent regional conflicts and build
peace in the whole of Asia.

Dialogue to Create a Connection for
the Global Society
The 20th century was the century of market competition. It is true that market competition provided thedriving force for socioeconomic development, but it
also led to increased competition in individual interests and desires, and the problem of global warming
is one of the consequences.
In the 21st century, we need to attribute more
importance to cooperation than to competition, and to31

Chapter 2 Responding to the Crisis ｜ Creating a Low-Carbon Society ̶ Mechanism to Foster Initiatives, and Innovation in Related Systems

this end it is important to create social organizations
based on mutual trust, not just on mutual interests.
For families and local communities, we can usuallybuild relationships of trust relatively easily throughfamily links and territorial bonding. Local valuable
resources, including water resources, forests that offer
abundant gifts from nature and beautiful scenery, canbe protected and utilized appropriately through mutual
cooperation and trust within local communities.
For problems such as global warming that need
to be tackled on a global scale, it is difficult to findsolutions simply by building local relationships oftrust among families and communities as they havedifferent interests among countries and the level ofindustries. Thus, in order to set conservation of the
global environment as a mutual target for humankind,
we need to establish a connection between societies
to enable the world as a whole to cope with the
problem. What is important then is to have dialogue.
Dialogue is not intended to defeat others. It is theprocess of recognizing the relationship in between. It

becomes the communication capability necessary not
only among countries but for all societal units.
To solve the problems of global warming, appropriate measures should be studied in the fields of scienceand technology and policies should be decided withthe participation of all, through repeated trial anderror. To this end, while establishing the connection
for the global society, it is necessary for participating
individual and organizations to be confident andmake appropriate decisions. And in many situations,dialogue is needed first.

© The Mainichi Newspapers

32

Final Chapter

Our VibrantBlue Planet
In the preceding chapters, we have discussed the science and technology and social systems that are needed
to deal with global warming. In addition to tackling thepresent crisis, however, we also need the will to open
the door to a new age. What kind of society should we
aim at for this new age? The Round Table Conference
discussed the images of the new society.

33

Final Chapter Our Vibrant Blue Planet© BAGAN MAUNG/UNEP / Still Pictures

34

A Creeping Crisis

We are Social and Biological Beings

The Industrial Revolution started in Europe in the
18th to 19th centuries and economic development
which centered around industries spread across theworld. Since the Industrial Revolution, humankind
has acquired a life rich in material possessions
through the development of science and technology and market globalization. On the other hand,
however, emissions of green house gases such as CO2
have increased rapidly due to the rapid rise in the
consumption of fossil fuels.
Nonetheless, humankind has given priority toeconomic development and remained indifferent to
the impact of human activities on nature, which isthe principal foundation for our survival. At the endof the 20th century, while some scientists began toring the bell to say that nature, the foundation of oursurvival, is being impaired, human society continued
to put economic development first, resulting in thecrisis of global warming creeping in front of us.

Human beings are both social and biological beings.
A biological being relies for its life totally on natureand it lives its life as a very small part of nature. It
only exists as a passive being against the environment. It is our activities from the aspect of being human which form a societal entity that is causing theenvironmental problems. Humankind has believedthat a part of nature could be replaced by artificial
things on the premise that we can understand andcontrol nature as an object with our reason. The
modernization and industrialization since the 18th
century has been driven by human beings exploiting,consuming and wasting natural resources in the
pursuit of science and technology.
However, we are part of Nature and cannot live
unless we act in harmony with it. In the face of thecrisis for the natural environment caused by global
warming, we cannot inflict any more damage on
nature, which is the foundation to our existence asa biological being. We must recognize the fact thatnature provides the foundation for the lives of all living things, and that the human as a biological being
will not be able to cross over the boundary out of

nature. Past economic development has lacked sucha viewpoint, and that could be said to have caused
global warming.

A Society where Human and Nature
Coexist as Entities Full of Life
We have pushed forward our economic activities
without becoming conscious that the natural environment and resources are limited or that there is a limit
to the Earth s regenerative capacity as we lacked theviewpoint that we human beings are also a biologicalbeing and that nature is the foundation to all living
things. At the same time, in spite of the fact that
economy should be a means per se, as the development and use of science and technology advancetargeting economical growth itself, people only see
the aspects of material riches and convenience, andhaven t they ignored considering the existence ofhumankind itself and the wealth of the spirit?
Therefore, from now on, we should aim atdevelopment which will not damage the reproductive
capabilities of nature and resources by targetingsustainable coexistence with nature on a global
scale through further clarification of the diverse andcomplex self-recovery capabilities of the Earth. Whatis important is to build a society where humans andnature coexist as entities full of life. We have termedsuch a global society a Blue Planet. Humankind isan entity existing within nature of the cosmos, theEarth and the region, depending for its life on nature.
Thus the recovery of the Nature will lead to the recovery of the vitality of human beings and society. In
other words, we need to create a society that respects
nature s blessings, and sees the natural environment
as the foundation of all life.
The new society created through the realization ofa low-carbon society will be a society existing under
the coexistence between human beings and nature,
where rich diversity and vibrant cultures are ensured
for individuals and society.

Creating a New Society

Goal of the
new society

How to achieve
our goal

Final outcome

A vibrant society where humankind and nature coexist(building the Blue Planet society)

Solving problems by gathering wisdom from science andtechnology and knowledge in the ﬁelds of the human andsocial sciences- Economy that produces coexistence between human beings and Nature- Ensuring fairness across generations and regions- Pursuit of better solutions- Recognition of the public interest in building the Blue Planet society

A society which ensures a rich diversity of individuals
and where vibrant cultures are encouraged throughsustainable coexistence between human beings and nature

35

Final Chapter Our Vibrant Blue Planet

Approaches Toward
Realizing aBlue Planet
In order to realize a Blue Planet,
we need to share the societal
goal of creating a society where
humans and nature coexist as
entities full of life and rebuild
science and technology and oursocial systems.

Solving Problems by Gathering
Wisdom from Both Science andTechnology and Knowledge in the
Fields of the Human and Social
Sciences
We have been using science and technology tocreate more affluent and comfortable lives at thecost of damaging the global environment, whichis the foundation for the existence of humankind.
From now on, it is vital that we evaluate science andtechnology taking into consideration environmentrelated aspects and to try to develop and disseminate
new science and technology to conserve theglobal environment which is the foundation for the
existence of humankind. In cases where technology
development requires vast amounts of capital andhuman investments, such as in the developmentof new energy technologies, special institutional
measures based on a long-range viewpoint shouldbe implemented.
In order to reexamine the relationship between
human society and nature, not only do we need toconsolidate cross-disciplinary wisdom in science36

and technology but also to mobilize our wisdomin the fields of human and social sciences. The
wisdom in the fields of human and social sciences
mentioned here refers to things relating to ethicalvalues and social systems for human beings andnature to coexist. And by systematizing such
wisdom, it is necessary to try to solve the problems
on a societal scale utilizing wisdom from both science and technology and knowledge in the fields ofhuman and social sciences.

Economies that Encourage Coexistence between Human Beings andNatureEconomies provide the means to acquire affluence
for humankind, but pursuing profit leads to unlimited
expansion of greed and competition and results ininequality and conflicts between peoples. There werequite a few companies which discharged pollutants
and caused pollution by putting the emphasis on
short-term economical profits. Global warming canbe said to be resulting from the use of fossil fuels
beyond the threshold.
We have not counted the environmental cost whichis regarded as an external diseconomy, in the cost of
business activities which includes such costs as laborcosts and material costs, and as a result, we havedamaged the natural environment and caused global
warming. Since the latter half of the 20th century, anumber of initiatives to prevent environmental destruction began to be implemented on a local scale. To
solve the environmental problems on a global scale,
we are required to further establish various social
rules and mechanisms. In order to raise affluence andvitality of society, a market economy is thought tofunction best, but on the other hand, it is necessary tohave laws and regimes that lead to building the framework for an economy that can coexist with nature on
the premise that the economy is a market economy.

Approaches Toward Realizing a Blue Planet© MARK EDWARDS / Still Pictures

Ensuring Fairness acrossGenerations and Regions
According to the report of the Brundtland Commission in 1987, sustainable development meansdevelopment that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs, and this concept isbased on the value of fairness across generations.
As humankind fulfills a variety of its needs throughnature as the basis of its survival, if nature is damaged by being exploited by the present generation,
the basis to fulfill the needs of future generations will
be endangered. We therefore must recognize the importance of nature as the basis of survival for future
generations and take the responsibility to inherit therich natural environment which brings spiritual andmaterial blessings.

Also when considering fairness, it is important that
we narrow the economic gap between the developed
and developing countries. Global warming exerts
its most serious effects on developing countries,
particularly on poor people living there, and weneed to implement countermeasures that take into
consideration the huge gaps existing between thedeveloped and developing countries, including gaps
in their technological development capabilities andcost sharing abilities. Accordingly, the bodies of theUnited Nations and the governments of developed
countries need to give technological and financial
support to developing countries in promoting measures to cope with global warming. The governmentsof developing countries, however, need to tackle
poverty in their countries before they can address
global warming. In spite of this disadvantage, theyalso have an advantage: they can learn a lot from the37

Final Chapter Our Vibrant Blue Planet

experiences of the developed countries regarding economic development and treatment of environmental
problems. They can use the lessons learned from thedeveloped countries, including technologies, knowhow and expertise, in dealing with their poverty andenvironmental problems. Cooperation must therefore
be promoted between the developed and developing
countries in a way that enables the developing
countries to make the maximum use of the support
given to them by the developed countries. When thedeveloped countries transfer technologies in collaboration with projects in developing countries, theymust try to ensure that these initiatives will work
together to help the developing countries both solve
global warming problems and eliminate poverty.

Pursuing Better Solutions
It has taken several decades for the developed
countries to overcome pollution by trial and error,
including the years spent in identifying the causes,
developing technologies to prevent pollution andestablishing the mechanisms to implement antipollution measures. Humankind at present is facing
a new environmental problem on a global scale,
namely global warming. Global warming is far more
serious than pollution in terms of magnitude andcomplexity, and so the problem is thought to take along time to solve. However, if we are to cope with
global environmental problems through the mostsuitable solution available by completely identifying
the cause and establishing a perfect solution, there
is a danger that we could be too late and fall into an
irrecoverable situation. The crisis requires urgent
action.
Therefore to solve global environmental problems,
while we make the maximum use of currently
available findings and technologies such as assessing
risks based on objective data to prevent irreversible
damage to the Earth, we need to search for betterlong-term solutions. As scientific findings, technologies and human ideas change with time, we are
required to continually implement long-term solu-

38

tions, and not become trapped in short-term interestsand possibilities.

Acknowledging the Public Interest
for a Blue Planet
Solutions to global environmental problems require
the efforts of all members of the global society. To
this end, the entire global society needs to share thecommon social target of sustainable coexistence ofhuman beings and nature. Namely, concepts such asa society that relies on the natural environment for
its life and honors the blessings and a society where
human and nature are regenerated as entities full oflife themselves should be the new concepts of what
the public means for a global society as a whole.
In order to build such a concept for the generalpublic, it becomes important to raise the awareness ofeach individual. For individuals to fully comprehend
the public interest of a Blue Planet, what they needis to ask themselves what enables them to live. If
people question the possibility of the survival of humankind on an individual, regional or national level
and in schools, companies and organizations, they
will come to recognize the fact that huhumankind
cannot live without the blessings of nature. At thesame time, people will also learn that in a complex
society, they live by interrelating with many others.
In doing so, each individual understands that they areentities that have their individual roles to play andbecomes aware of the importance of having consideration for others. When we say considerationfor others, it means to respect the independenceof others who take different positions. In a society
comprising individuals of different genders, ages andabilities, it is only through mutual respect that peaceand equality will be maintained.
Consideration for others should not only be given
to other individuals, but also from one country toanother, from present to future generations, and fromhuman beings to nature. And by having considerationfor others, initiatives to give mutual assistance arise.
In a society where individuals only compete with

Approaches Toward Realizing a Blue Planet

each other in the pursuit of their own interests, there
can be no such initiatives. The mind and spirit ofconsideration and mutual assistance arise from relationships of mutual respect. Through mutual respect
shall such a society full of diversity and vitality berealized.

Establishing a Vibrant Blue Planet
As mentioned before, the Round Table Conference
proposes as the image for a new society an image
in which human beings and nature try to coexist as
entities full of life through a low-carbon society, andsends out the message that everyone has to serve theirrole to realize a Blue Planet. Also, through copingwith the problems of global warming, in order to cre-

ate a global society where we can deal flexibly withchanges made to the Earth s system which includes
both human beings and nature, the Conference would
like to make suggestions on how science and technology and social systems should be. Let s not force
each individual into uniform action for a purpose,but by realizing the public value of a Blue Planet,
let s aim at creating a vibrant society where thediverse originality and ingenuity of each individualis brought out. The Conference sincerely hopes that a
global society which is based on dialogue and peace
instead of conflict and war will be realized throughreconstructing a foundation on which human beingsand nature sustainably coexist with people acting
while considering others, other countries, future
generations and nature instead of being self-centered.

© NASA

39

Special Dialogue

Passing Our Blue Planet
On to Future Generations
In the face of impending global warming, what role should the Asahi GlassFoundation play in finding solutions to the problem? Mr. Seya, Chairman of
the Foundation talks with Professor Morishima, who is also a Director of theFoundation and chairs the Conference, regarding the mission and vision of the
project implemented by the Foundation s Special Round Table Conference on
Global Environment Problems.

The Asahi Glass Foundation andEnvironmental Problems
Morishima: Asahi Glass, a company in the private

Akio Morishima
Born in 1934, Professor Morishima graduated from the University ofTokyo s Faculty of Law in 1958 and was awarded a Master of Laws
(LLM) at Harvard Law School in 1968. He served as a professor
and dean of law at Nagoya University and as a professor of law
at Sophia University. He is now Professor Emeritus at Nagoya
University. After serving as the Chairman of the Board of Directorsof the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies from 1998 to2007 and as the chairman of the Central Environmental Council of
the Japanese Government from 2000 to 2005, he has been serving as
the chair of the Japan Climate Policy Center since 2005.

40

sector, established the Asahi Glass Foundation. And
in 1992, the Foundation established the Blue Planet
Prize, an international environmental award, to commend those who contributed to solving environmental
problems. Moreover, the Foundation established theSpecial Round Table Conference on Global Environment Problems, a special project towards solving environmental problems. It comprises the directors andcouncilors of the Foundation. I think that a common
thinking lies behind all the initiatives. First, I would
like to ask you about this underlying philosophy, inyour capacity as former president of Asahi Glass andpresent Chairman of the Foundation?
Seya: Yataro Iwasaki, the founder of the MitsubishiGroup, had a younger brother. And his son Toshiya
founded Asahi Glass. Toshiya Iwasaki made strenuous efforts to get the glass manufacturing business
off the ground. He even invested his private assets
in overcoming various technological difficulties.
Asahi Glass celebrated its 25th anniversary in 1933.
And to commemorate the anniversary, it establishedthe Asahi Foundation for Chemical Industry
Promotion, the present Asahi Glass Foundation. The
underlying thinking was that technology provides

Akio Morishima

Trustee of the Asahi Glass Foundation and
Chairman of the Special Round Table Conference
on Global Environmental Problems

Hiromichi Seya
Chairman of the Asahi Glass Foundation

Press conference held to announce the establishment of the Blue
Planet Prize (June 1992)
At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development(Earth Summit) held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

the basis for the manufacturing sector. He wanted tosupport Japan s technological progress by granting
subsidies for academic research activities. Following
such steady activities for about 60 years, the thenpresident of Asahi Glass put forward the idea thatcompanies that cannot overcome environmental
problems will not survive in the future. Then thenext president renamed the Foundation as the Asahi
Glass Foundation. In 1992, when the Earth Summit
was held in Rio de Janeiro, the Foundation launched
the Blue Planet Prize award. The program is tocommend those people who have contributed to solving environmental problems. In the same year, theFoundation began conducting its Survey on Global
Environmental Issues. It was to investigate the senseof crisis felt by environmental experts around theworld regarding the present global environment situation. I think that the current special project is also inline with the Foundation s initiatives.
Professor Morishima, we are thankful for yoursupport for the activities of the Foundation since thelaunch of the Blue Planet Prize. What caused you toengage yourself in environmental problems in thefirst place?
Morishima: It started with a litigation over air
pollution. At the end of the 1960s, people in a fishing village near a petrochemical industrial site in
Yokkaichi, a city in Mie Prefecture in central Japan,

Hiromichi Seya
Born in 1930, Mr. Seya joined Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. in 1954, after
graduating from the University of Tokyo s Faculty of Engineering.
He became President of the company in 1992 after serving as
Director in Charge of Chemical Products, Senior Executive Ofﬁcer
and Senior Executive Vice President. He became Chairman of thecompany in 1998 and Chairman of the Board in 2002. He has been
Senior Corporate Advisor of the company since 2004 and Chairmanof the Asahi Glass Foundation since 2000.

41

No one in the country seemed willingto take action to address these problems
when we should seriously be thinking
about what would happen to the Earthif we continue our present lifestyles.
were suffering from unexplained asthma. When I was
involved in the Yokkaichi air pollution lawsuit, oneof the first pollution lawsuit filed in Japan, in my capacity as a legal expert, I felt it unreasonable that theplaintiffs had little chance of winning their case due
to undeveloped legal doctrine for compensation. The
defendants argued that the medical causal relationship could not be proved and that since the numberof polluting factories is multiple no factory could be
identified as an actual polluter to the plaintiff. At thattime I was 33 years old and had just returned to Japan
to Nagoya University from studying in the UnitedStates. I decided to join the plaintiff lawyers team as
an advisor to apply my legal knowledge. I wanted touse the skill I had just studied in the United States tosolve the legal issues in the emerging pollution problems at that time. I continued to get myself involvedin a variety of pollution lawsuits and witnessed the
expansion of both urban and natural environmental
problems from local to global levels. In the courseof my career, I became involved in lawmaking andformulating environmental policies. I served aschairperson of the Japanese government s Central
Environmental Council.
With such a backdrop, I was appointed a memberof the selection committee of the Foundation when it
expanded the scope of its research grant program toinclude the field of social sciences. I was also chosen
as a member of the selection committee for the Blue
Planet Prize, and have been supporting the Foundation as an expert on law as a social science.

42

Mission of the Round Table
Conference
Morishima: The directors and councilors of theFoundation are experts representing a range of fields.
Mr. Seya, you took strong leadership in founding theRound Table Conference. What made you do it?
Seya: In 1972, the Club of Rome gave us a verystrong warning in a book titled The Limits to Growth .
People had some thoughts about it. Although there
have been local wars and serious environmental
problems in the world since, currently Japan is peaceful. I felt it is time people seriously thought about the
Earth. About whether we can continue our present
lifestyles. But no one in the country seemed willingto take action to address these problems. Under thesecircumstances, I thought I should do something,
and took the initiative to found the Conference.
The directors and councilors of the Foundation are
experts full of experience. I wanted to have them
discuss those urgent problems, mainly environmental
problems, and send a message to the public.
Morishima: The Limits to Growth warned the
public that if the human race continued its growthin the same way, the resources required to support
this growth would be depleted. The situation ismore threatening today. I have been engaged inenvironmental problems from a legal viewpoint. It is
my job to listen to the opinions of others in a neutral
and objective manner. The directors and councilorsof the Foundation have different backgrounds andexpertise. It is quite interesting to listen to their freeconversation at the meetings of the Foundation.

When I was asked to chair the Conference, I decided
to accept the request, thinking that it would be great
to bring together the wisdom of the Chairman andother members of the Foundation and communicate
their ideas to the public in some form.
Seya: What is your impression of the discussions that
actually took place at the Conference, as chairperson?
Morishima: The members of the Conference havedifferent opinions, but all of them share the sameidea. The idea is that they have the so-called Asianway of thinking and not the European way thattends to value self-centered competition in achieving
individual goals. The idea is to cooperate with eachother as humans and provide mutual assistance.
It means that they have an idea that is lacking incurrent society, that unless we do it that way, society
and the environment will not become sustainable. I
believe it to be quite meaningful for the Asahi GlassFoundation to communicate the importance of thesevalues to the world from the aspect of environmental
problems.
Seya: The directors and councilors have a lot tosay, and I want their opinions to be heard by people
across the world, and let them say Yes! to theiropinions and then think about what they should do totackle the identified problems.
Morishima: There are still a few researchers who
argue that global warming is not caused by humanactivities. Even if these researchers are right andeven if irreversible damage may not be caused to the
Earth with 100% possibility, we should prepare forthis damage, based on the so-called precautionary
principle so long as a high possibility of such risk
cannot be denied. The environmental problems
including global warming that we are facing today
cannot be left unsolved.
Seya: I completely agree with you. However, I am
afraid that there is some disagreement, even among
the members of the Conference. In publishing theopinions of the Conference in the form of a final
report in the future, how will you deal with thesedifferences?
Morishima: Among the directors and councilors ofFirst edition of The Limits to Growth (by the Club of Rome, 1972)
This book warned readers that the world population and economic
growth would reach their limits in the 21st century due to thedepletion of resources and environmental pollution. It shocked
the world and raised people s awareness of global environmental
problems.

the Asahi Glass Foundation, no one insists that global
warming is not caused by human activities, but they
do have different opinions on the size of the impacts
that human activities have had on the Earth and about
what the important measures to be implemented are.
Also, they evaluate the results of national measuresand achievements made through science and technology differently. I do not think it necessary to force
them to reach a consensus on every topic. Rather, itis necessary to show what measures could be taken
against the threat of irreversible damage to the Earth,while clarifying to what extent members agree ordisagree on each of these matters.

Creating a Sustainable Society
Seya: Dr. Emil Salim, who received the 2006 Blue
Planet Prize, proposed the idea of Plain living, highthinking. I also think that one of the possible ways
to solve environmental problems is to lead a simple
life without wasting resources. This idea, however,might not be compatible with the development of
the world economy. How do you think we can find acompromise between the two themes––solutions toenvironmental problems and economic development?
It might be necessary for everyone in the world to try

43We must create a society where people
cooperate with and help each other,
not a society where they competewith and criticize each other…

to answer this question.
Morishima: To respond to his idea, we need tounderstand what has caused today s situation in ourlife. With the market economy system, we havebenefited from science and technology to lead highquality lives, while almost depleting natural resources
and increasing greenhouse gases. Now we have toreconsider how we should use energy and what kindof economy and society we should reconstruct. An
unbalanced distribution of wealth might cause afurther waste of resources and an increase in CO2emissions, while the whole of society remains poor.
In such a society, security would be endangered.
Seya: In what new direction does the Conference
think society should move?
Morishima: If wealth is redistributed and resources
are recycled in a well-organized market economy,high living standards in the whole society can be
maintained in a sustainable manner to some extent.
We need to create a society where wealth is redistributed giving special consideration to the weak. Thisis a new vision of society that is completely different
from the society we live in today; one in whichpeople value consideration for others and mutual
assistance, as explained in the last chapter of thisbooklet.
Seya: Hearing the word consideration for others,some people might get the impression that we needto return to the thinking of olden days. For example,
people may think of the mutual assistance mentality
they had in old Japanese village communities, where
local inhabitants helped each other. However, I think
you mean something more by saying consideration

44

for others.
Morishima: Exactly. It will include such mentality,

but on top of that, it is means not only to assist, butalso to fulfill mutual responsibilities while having respect for others as equal human beings. Specifically,in a future society, wealth should be redistributed
in a more organized way, and profit-making should
not be regarded as the absolute priority. Developing
countries must assume responsibility for their environmental problems and developed countries should
redistribute their wealth to the developing countries.
We must create a society where people can cooperatewith and help each other, not a society where people
compete with and criticize each other. This is thebasic idea expressed in this booklet, the intermediate
report of the Round Table Conference.
Seya: In this regard, I believe education must play
an important role. In today s Japanese family, I am
afraid that children are not educated in the right way.
They are not even taught common sense values suchas You must not do wrong, or You must help otherpeople who are in need. Children experience thisconsideration for others first at home. Parents
consideration for their children provides children
with their first lessons on how to build relationships
with others in school and in society. Children learn
the importance of cooperating with others throughtheir parents. Although things might not be as theywant, children should learn to respect others and to
be respected by others. We need to teach them thata society only exist with others present and will notexist without having consideration for others.
Morishima: What you said applies to everything. Inthe world of business too, it is wrong to pursue one s
own profit at the expense of others. In social systems,
it is wrong to insist on one s own rights without
respecting the rights of others. The same is true oftechnology. Competition should be allowed only
under certain rules and within a certain order. The
Round Table Conference has been discussing a rangeof matters taking a broad view, including mattersrelated to politics, technology, education and theoryof life, and I think that consideration for others andmutual assistance are the underlying concepts inall the discussions.

Urging All the People of the World toTake Action
Morishima: What kind of final report would you likethe Round Table Conference to produce?
Seya: I would like the final report to be easy to readeven for junior high school students. I expect thereport to be persuasive enough to make its readers tothink that they have to do something to reduce CO2
emissions, while considering the plight of people indeveloping countries. I want them to take action, tofeel that everyone in the world should do something
now.
Morishima: I still remember how people voluntarily
involved themselves in the aftermath of the HanshinAwaji Earthquake in 1995. People really can dosomething for other people when faced with a realcrisis. The threat of global environmental problems
is not easy to appreciate in our daily lives, but I am
afraid that the threat is a real one and is emerging. I
would like the final report to present this fact in an
intelligible manner.
We should be aware that it is not our generation,but our children and grandchildren who will live withthe serious damage caused by global environmental
problems. We must always consider others, including future generations, thinking about the living
environment of future generations. Unless the present
generation establishes some intergenerational ethics,
the human race will not be able to survive on thisEarth. I want more people to recognize this fact.
Seya: So the final goal of this project is to makeeveryone feel, I have to act now to deal with the
problem.

45

Towards Making the Final Proposal
In recent years, phenomena such as explosive increases in population, global warming, the uneven distribution and lack of water andfood, poverty and unbalanced and rapid urbanization have become
problems common to humankind and their importance is increasing.
In particular, global warming is regarded as a problem that could
endanger the existence of humankind and as such, it must be tackled ona global scale. Accordingly, global warming was the main item on theagenda at the Hokkaido Toyako Summit held in Japan in July 2008.
Under these circumstances and in commemoration of the 75th anniversary of its establishment, the Asahi Glass Foundation formed theSpecial Round Table Conference on Global Environment Problems in
December 2006, with the aim of communicating its ideas on global
sustainability to the general public. The Conference, which is composedof the directors and councilors of the Foundation, has been discussing a
range of global environmental problems and challenges to the whole ofthe human race. Speciﬁcally, the Conference set ﬁve discussion themes─
“Energy & CO2,” “Water & Food” , “Population, Poverty & Cities,” “Science & Technology,” and “Lifestyles & Education.” The members of theConference have been freely exchanging opinions on these themes fromvarious viewpoints based on their understanding of the present situationand the major problems and discussing important points to be noted andmeasures to be implemented in the future.
Of the ﬁve discussion themes, “Energy & CO2,” “Population, Poverty& Cities” and “Water & Food ” were selected as problems that need to
be dealt with on a global scale, and “Science & Technology” and “Lifestyles & Education” were selected because they help in identifying
important solutions to global problems. The Conference meets twiceor three times a year and will publish its ﬁnal report in the spring of
2010.

46

This booklet constitutes the intermediate report of the Conference
and focuses on the results of discussions held on the theme of “Energy& CO2.” This report does not give the only possible solutions to global
environmental problems or list specific technologies and politicalmeasures to be implemented. Rather, it searches for and proposesapproaches to be taken to address these problems. We hope that thisreport will provide the people of the world with the opportunity to
reﬂect on these problems based on their own lives.

Keiichi Uchida
Senior Executive Director
The Asahi Glass Foundation

Factors constraining resource and the environment
Energy & CO2

Water & Food

Population, Poverty & Cities

Energy-, resourceand CO2-related
problems

Food and water security
and environmental
constraints

Population-, poverty- anddevelopment-related problems
and environmental constraints

Science & Technology

Lifestyles & Education

Expectations high towards
innovations contributinge tosolving the problems

Distribution of ﬁndings and informationand the application of Japanʼ sexpertiseA New Society
A society in which humankind and nature are restored as beings full of vitality

47

Our Vision: Conditions for Survival

Global Warming ̶ Response to a Creeping Crisis

Published in June 2009
The Asahi Glass Foundation
2nd Floor, Science Plaza, 5-3, Yonbancho, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo 102-0081, Japan
Phone: + 81 3 5275 0620 Fax: + 81 3 5275 0871
E-mail: post＠af-info.or.jp URL: http://www.af-info.or.jp
Editor in Chief: Hiromichi Seya (Chairman of the Asahi Glass Foundation)
Supervising Editor: Akio Morishima(Trustee of the Asahi Glass Foundation and Chairman of
the Special Round Table Conference on Global
Environmental Problems)Project Coordinator: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Editorial Production: AST Creative Co., Ltd.
＊No part of this document may be published or reproduced in any form

without the permission© Luiz C. Marigo / Still Pictures

We are living on this blue planet ─ a spaceshipcharting its way through the infinite cosmos withmyriad life on board.
Are we thinking seriously enough about the destinyof our blue spaceship?
As one of the small creatures born on this planet,
have we committed ourselves to fulfilling our
responsibilities for the Earth ─ a living spaceship for
all organisms? Are we giving enough consideration
to the lives and welfare of others?
We have designed this project to give you theopportunity to trace the history of the living
spaceship Earth and we hope that it provides you
with the opportunity to reflect on the future of ourblue planet.

Printed on paper certified by the
Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)
as coming from a well-managed
forest

960

1970

1980

At 2:30 p.m. on May 19, 1955, Charles David Keeling, who was a chemist, stood alone on a bridge in a
Californian forest. He held a ﬁve-liter, round-bottomed
ﬂask in his hands. Keeling carefully opened the ﬂask,
the inside of which had been maintained at a vacuum.
The flask was then immediately filled with cold andmoist night air. This marked the beginning of scientiﬁc
research into climate change.
Subsequently, Keeling collected samples of air atvarious locations and made precise measurements of the
traces of CO2 contained in the atmospheric samples hehad collected. The CO2 amount was a uniform 310 to
315 ppm in all the samples. Based on these results, heconcluded that global climate change could be identiﬁed
by continuing ﬁxed-point observations at a speciﬁc location on Earth. In 1958, Keeling actually began making
such observations on the top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii.
He continued his observations over many years, andthese continued even after he passed away in 2005. In
2007, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere wasfound to have reached about 385 ppm. This was compared with the level of atmospheric CO2 in antiquity,which was estimated by analyzing the composition of
air trapped in an ice core extracted from a deep layer ofthe Antarctic ice sheet. This comparison revealed thatthe level measured in 2007 was the highest in the past
800,000 years.
The results of Keeling s data collection were presented in a graph called the Keeling Curve, which isshown on the front page of this booklet. The rise in thelevels of atmospheric CO2, now regarded by everybody
as a creeping crisis, was thus ﬁrst detected by Keeling, a scientist who made constant efforts to continue
his research motivated purely by his interest in science.
Keeling received the Blue Planet Prize in 1993 inrecognition of his contribution to the launch of scientiﬁc
debate on the global warming problem.