Health and Economic Benefits of Developing Renewable Energy under 2 ℃ Target in China
Yang Xie
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan

23rd AIM International Workshop, November 27-29, 2017
Introduction

Health impact

I Climate change is becoming an essential issue in this century globally. Climate mitigation through renewable

Figure 4 shows the avoided premature death from development of renewable energy. Renewable energy
development could reduce 0.3 million in 2030 and 0.5 million in 2050 premature death due to the air quality
improvement in China. Most of the premature death is from PM2: 5 pollution. At the provincial level, the most
avoided premature death is found in Henan (37 and 85 thousand in 2030 and 2050, respectively), Shandong (15 and38 thousand), Hebei (18 and 36 thousand), and Anhui (14 and 37 thousand) provinces. Most of these provinces are in
the east and central of China.

energy development could not only reduces the CO2 emission and slow down the climate change, but also bringair quality co-benefits, especially for China.
I Chinese government set up target on GHGs emission according to Paris Agreement. China also released theChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2017(CREO 2017), recently.
I This study aims to quantify the health and economic benefits from air quality improvement due to thedevelopment of renewable energy in China, and assess the costs of developing renewable energy and carbon
reduction costs under 2 ℃ target.
I Taking into account the all the costs and benefits of renewable energy development, policy suggestions areprovided to the government for future renewable energy policy.
Method and scenario
This study uses the renewable energy projection from CREO 2017, combines the EDO model, LEAP model,
GEOS-Chem model, health assessment model and CGE model to evaluate the air quality and health benefits andsocial cost of carbon from development of renewable energy under the 2℃ target in China toward 2050.
I EDO (Electricity and District Heating Optimisation) model and LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning)model are used to project future energy consumption by fuel and by sector based on the Chinese government
energy projection.
I GEOS-Chem model use the air pollutants emissions data and simulate PM2: 5 and ozone concentration.
I Health assessment Health model is an integrated health impact assessment model. It can quantify the air
pollution-related mortality, morbidity, work time loss, health expenditure and value of statistical life (VSL).

Figure 4: Avoiled premature death in Below 2 ℃ scenario in China.

I In 2030, the national total avoidedScenario
This study sets up Stated Policies scenario and Below 2 ℃ scenario to evaluate the benefit from renewableenergy. Stated Policies scenario is the BaU scenario, while Below 2 ℃ scenario has more intensive target on
renewable energy development. Table 1 and 2 show the different assumptions in two scenarios.
ScenarioParameter
2020 2030 2050
Stated Policies Carbon intensity 40-50 60-65 Below 2 ℃
Carbon cap(Mt Co2) 9000 8000 3000

I Stated Policies scenario : The carbon
emission constrains is based on China’s
current carbon emission intensity target
table 1. The renewable energy
development follows the same speed as
before.
I Below 2 ℃ scenario : The carbon
constraints for the energy system on
several different simulations from theIPCC AR5 database with more than fifty
percent chance of staying Below 2℃warming. Large-scale renewable energycan substitute fossil fuel and be used tomitigate the climate change.

Table 1: Carbon constraints in two scenarios.

Scenario2017 2020 2030 2040 2050
Stated Policies 30 50 100 100 100
Below 2 ℃
30 50 100 200 200
Table 2: Carbon constraints in two scenarios.

The CO2-development pathway for the two scenarios is subdivided
into a cap for power and district heating(DH) sector and a cap forother sectors.
Scenario2020 2030 2040 2050
Carbon budget for the energy sector 9000 8000 5500 3000
Power and DH carbon budget
2862 2748 1798 1282
Table 3: Carbon budget for the Below 2℃ scenario (million ton).

Figure 5: Health impacts (left) and benefit (right) on risk ofmorbidity from PM2: 5 (top) and O3 (bottom) in 2050.

morbidity is 34 million cases per year,
whereas it increases to 140 million cases in2050.
I In the Stated Policies scenario, Qinghai,Sichuan, Beijing, Gansu and Tianjin areamong the regions with highest healthimpacts from PM2: 5 and ozone pollution.
I In the Below 2℃ scenario, Guizhou,Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan is among
the regions with most benefits fromreduced adverse health damage.
I In 2015, the national per capita work timeloss from PM2: 5 and ozone-related healthimpacts 6.3 hours. It will increase to 6.5
hours in 2030 and decrease to 4.7 hours in
2050 in Stated Policies scenario. In 2050,
per capita work time loss is 2.6 hours in
Below 2℃ scenario.

Cost-benefit analysis
Developing renewable energy needs additional installation investments and operational costs. Savings will comefrom reduced CO2 emissions, reduced morbidity, reduced mortality, saved fuels expenditure and saved OM inthermal power plants and GDP gain due to more labor supply.

Energy consumption

I This study uses the energy demand
assumption for the future from CREO
2017.
I Figure 1 shows the energy consumption
projection by source under two scenarios.
The total energy consumption is lower inBelow 2 ℃ than Stated Policies scenario.
I Solid fuels, Liquid fuels and Gas fuels ishigher in Stated Policies and lower inBelow 2 ℃ scenario.
I Renewable energy consumption, such as
biomass, biofuel, hydrogen will increaseabsolutely in the future.
Figure 1: Energy consumption by source in two scenarios.

Emissions

I Air pollutants and GHGs emission inFigure 2: Air pollutants and GHGs emission in two scenarios in China

Below 2 ℃ scenario is lower than in StatedPolicies scenario after 2020.
I Comparing with Stated Policies scenario,
CO2, NOx, SOx and NMVOC decrease
faster in Below 2 ℃ scenario.
I CO, PM2: 5 and NH3 decrease slowly in in
Below 2 ℃ scenario. Residential sector isthe main contributor on CO and PM2: 5emissions. Agriculture is the main
contributor on NH3 emission.
I The primary air pollutants emission datais used by GEOS-Chem model to simulate
concentration.

Concentration

I Figure 3 shows the PM2: 5(top) andFigure 3: PM2: 5(top) and ozone(bottom) concentration in two scenarios in 2050.

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japanozone(bottom) concentration in StatedPolicies scenario and Below 2 ℃ scenario
in 2050. Air quality is much better inBelow 2 ℃ scenario.
I This study also simulates PM2: 5(top) andozone(bottom) concentration. In 2030, airquality improvement is very limited.
PM2: 5 reduction is upto 20 ug/m3 andozone reduction is upto 5 ug/m3.
I In 2050, PM2: 5 reduction is upto 40 ug/m3.
North and East part of China will havehigher PM2: 5 reduction. Ozone reduction
is upto 15ug/m3 and south of China will
have most reduction. For some regions,such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong,ozone concentration is higher in Below 2℃ scenario.

Figure 6: Cost and benefit analysis of developing renewable energy in 2030 (top) and 2050 (bottom).

Compared with Stated Policies scenario, renewable energy could reduce up to 20 ug/m3 PM2: 5 and 5 ug/m3 ozone in2030 and 40 ug/m3 PM2: 5 and 15 ug/m3 ozone in 2050. The avoided premature death is 0.3 million in 2030 and 0.5
million in 2050. VSL saving is 997 billion CNY in 2030 and 2620 billion CNY in 2050. Renewable energy could also
save 9.3 billion CNY health expenditure in 2030 and 44 billion CNY in 2050. The net benefit is about 170 billion CNYin 2030 and 970 billion CNY in 2050. Most of the benefit is from VSL. The net benefit is higher in 2050 in China. For
some provinces, the net benefit is negative in 2030, but it will be positive in 2050.
Discussion and Conclusion
Cost and benefit of developing renewable energy
I Air pollution is an essential issue recently in China and will continue to be a problem due to large demand ofenergy for the development. Developing clean energy is a considerable option to reduce air pollutants emissions
and mitigate climate change in the long period.
I China has large potential on renewable energy, which could substitute fossil fuel and reduce air pollutants andGHGs emissions. Large-scale renewable energy development would bring substantial environmental co-benefits
in China.
I Our study demonstrates that more ambitious deployment of renewable energy will contribute massively toreducing air pollution and improving air quality, improving human health, saving health expenditure, avoidingpremature deaths and increasing economic growth. The net benefits will not outweigh the costs in the medium
run such as 2030, but in the long such as 2050, the net benefits are quite significant.
National level
I In the short-term before 2030, the net benefit of development renewable energy is positive, but not significant inChina. In the long-term until 2050, the net benefit of renewable energy is increasing and becomes very significant
in China.
Provincial lelve
I Most of provinces in China have significant benefit from development of renewable energy, especially Henan,Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong, Shanxi. Some of provinces have negative net benefit, such as Inner
Mongolia, Fujian, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Sichuan and Qinghai have negative net benefit.
Cnsidering the air quality and health benefit, climate mitigation and investment and employment inrenewable energy-related sectors, developing renewable energy in China ambitiously is optimal energy
policy from long-term green growth way.
Department of Social Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology