Renewable electricity in Japan’s 7thStrategic Energy PlanAuthor : Dave Jones, Ember with review from Climate Integrate
Published : 1 August 2024

Progress on The Sixth Strategic Energy Plan
Japan’s Sixth Strategic Energy Plan was agreed in 2021, and formed a plan for 2030. It
includes a large planned scale-up of solar, an increase in onshore wind, and a new offshore
wind industry.
On 29th May 2024, METI published a renewable energy progress document of the Sixth
Plan. Here we summarise our key take-aways:Solar
Solar installations must increase from about 5 GW/year now to 7.5 GW/year to 2030. Its
growth is being hampered by limited available sites, and more attention is needed to freeup suitable land. Good growth in rooftop solar is helping, and its potential is immense andneeds to be harnessed.

Onshore wind
The building of onshore wind has collapsed as projects are on pause due to planning issues.
Of the 12 GW that needs to be built by 2030, there are reassuringly over 10 GW of projects
approved, but they have yet to be commissioned. There is a clear need to overhaul planningand administrative procedures, or else the target will not be met.

Offshore wind
There is 5.1 GW auctioned to almost meet the 5.7 GW target. However, only 0.15 GW has
actually been built so far. More coordination and focus is needed to transform it intoa priority industry for Japan. This includes the incubation of the floating offshore windindustry, which will be needed at scale in the next decade.

Other renewables
Expectations for growth in other renewables were not as big. Bioenergy is mostly on track,hydro less-so, and geothermal is off track.

2International context“A predominately decarbonised power system by 2035”
G7 members, including Japan, committed to “a predominately decarbonised power systemby 2035”. However, five members of the G7 already have targets for a 2035 net zero power
sector. It is only Japan and Italy that do not.

3

Tripling global renewable capacity
At COP28 in 2023, Japan - alongside every other country in the world - made acommitment to triple global renewable electricity capacity, from 2022 to 2030.
However, Japan - apart from Canada - has the smallest scale-up of renewables capacityplanned to 2030. Japan’s targets in its Sixth Strategic Energy Plan add up to 201 GW, just 1.7
times higher than the capacity in 2022. Japan has supported a global tripling of renewables
capacity. This would mean 2030 renewables capacity would need to rise to over 300 GW.

4Other countries are showing more ambition on wind
Only 1% of Japan’s electricity last year came from wind. That was by far the lowest of any G7
country. Low wind generation is partly why Japan has only a third of its electricity from cleansources. A further third came from coal and a third from gas, meaning Japan has the dirtiest
electricity of any G7 country.

5A 2030 target of 5.7 GW of offshore wind capacity was proposed in the Sixth Strategic
Energy Plan. There are 11 countries that have offshore wind targets greater than or equal tothe 5.7 GW of Japan’s. Taiwan is targeting 5.6 GW, but for 2025; Vietnam’s 2030 target is 6GW. Belgium, with a tenth of the population, is also targeting 5.7 GW. Korea is targeting 14.2
GW by 2030. At the top is the United Kingdom, almost nine times Japan’s 2030 target.
Furthermore, Japan has yet to commission almost any offshore wind - as at the end of 2023,
China had 250 times more operational offshore wind capacity than Japan.

6Japan’s current Sixth Strategic Energy Plan envisions wind rising to only 5% of Japan’s
electricity by 2030. Wind and solar combined would hit only 20%, where the tripling of
global renewable capacity by 2030 means wind and solar would make up 40% of globalgeneration.

How much renewables in the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan?
The Seventh Strategic Energy Plan runs to 2040. However, for many reasons, the targets for2035 may be more important than for 2040. First, 2035 targets would likely form the basisof Japan’s UN National Determined Contribution (NDC) submission next year. Second, 2035
relates to pledges for Japan’s power sector to be “fully or partially decarbonised by 2035”.
And third, of course, 2035 is more actionable now than 2040.
One highly regarded study shows a possible way forward. The Lawrence Berkeley study
from February 2023 found that by 2035, 43 GW (24 GW of fixed and 19 GW of floating wind)
was possible. This would mean wind rises to a quarter of Japan’s electricity mix, and enablefossil fuel generation to fall to just 10%.

7Recommendations
 Set a 2035 net zero power sector target. This would align Japan with much of thedeveloped world. This would help inform the ambition needed in the Seventh Strategic
Energy Plan, so that renewables targets could be set with confidence. It would also allow
an ambitious 1.5 degree-aligned NDC submission to the UNFCCC, as promised by Japan.
 Set a 300 GW tripling renewable target for 2030. Wind and solar are in a position toscale-up more rapidly than the government is currently planning for, and setting a higher
target would unlock the policy action needed to achieve this.
 Create a floating wind industry. Set premium tariffs for floating wind to begin
deployment this decade, so it is able to rapidly scale next decade.
 Lay out a plan to unblock wind projects. Onshore projects are hanging in limbo, for avariety of reasons, meaning 2030 targets may be difficult to achieve.
 Encourage rooftop solar. Make it easier for consumers to install solar on their roofs.
 Improve planning rules for solar farms. There is still more suitable land available for solar
farms, but planning rules hold this back.

About Ember
Ember is an independent, not-for-profit climate and energy think tank that produces
cutting-edge research and high impact, politically viable policies that aim to accelerate theglobal transition to clean electricity.
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About Climate Integrate
Climate integrate is an independent climate policy think tank in Japan with an aim torealize a just, sustainable, and peaceful society through accelerate climate actions toward
decarbonisation by civil society, business and public sector.
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Email: contact@climateintegrate.org

Twitter/X: @ClimateInteg