A Wild Solution for Climate ChangeBlue Planet Prize
Commemorative Lecture
Tokyo
November 1, 2012
Thomas E. Lovejoy
University Professor
Environmental Science and Policy
George Mason University
Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTPlanetary Boundaries

Source: Rockström, J. et al. 2009Dr. Svante August Arrhenius
1859-1927

Analysis of a Greenland
ice core oxygen isotope proxy

Source: Wallace Broecker

CO2 for the Last 600,000 Years
Currently 385 ppm
2007

CO2-concentration (ppm)4003603201750280240200160600'000

500'000

400'000
300'000Years before present

Siegenthaler U et al. (2005) Science 310:1313
Petit JR et al. (1999) Nature 399:429

200'000100'0000¤ Ch KöKörner

temperature anomaly (degC)

Global temperature record

Source: Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)

1098
7

Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI (Avgs.)
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B22007
2006
2005

6

A1B: 2.42
A1FI: 2.71
A1T: 1.63
A2: 2.13
B1: 1.79
B2: 1.61

Observed
2000-2007
3.5%51990

SRES (2000)
aver. growth
rates in % y -1
for 2000-2010:

1995

2000

Global Carbon Project; Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)20052010

Signals fromnature

Lara Hansen / WWF
Jeremy Little / University of Washington

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTWarming trend in 37 of 39
Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Source: IPCC 2001, modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park
Late summer of 1938 (left) and 1981 (right)

Source: http://nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_retreat.htm

Rising sea level

Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay

Blackwater
National Refuge,Maryland
Photo Courtesy of NOAA

Probable Increased Frequency of MoreIntense Tropical Cyclones

Source: CSRIO 2001 (www.dar.csiro.au/publications/projections2001.pdf).

Wildfire increase in Western U.S.

Warmer summers and earlier snow melts
increased opportunities for wildfire in thewestern U.S. beginning in the mid-1980s

Source: Westerling et al. 2006. Science 313: 940-943.

Earlier flowering date

Climate Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew

Kew Magazine, Summer 2007

Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier• Across the USA, treeswallows are nesting
9 days earlier than
40 years ago• Laying date is highly
correlated with May
temperature

Source: Camille Parmesan

Edith’s Checkerspot• Range shift northward andupward during the 20th century• Most extinctions in south andlow elevations

Hardiness zones adjusted to warmer climate

Source: National Arbor Day Foundation

Replacement of marine copepod plankton
communities in NE Atlantic

Source: Beaugrand et al. Science 2002

Eelgrass

Chesapeake Bay•Largest estuary in theUnited States•In 2006 Underwater
grasses decreased by
25% Baywide•Decrease from 78,263
acres in 2005 to 59,090
acres in 2006

© WWF-Canon / Michèle Dépraz

Increasing number of dry days

Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005

Decoupling
Snowshoe Hare (Lepus Americanus)

Photos: University of Michigan

Decoupling: Arctic cod and black guillemot

Source: www.sfos.uaf.edu/research/seaicebiota

National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)

Biological Response
Phenological changes
attributed to recent
climate changeWhite et al. (2004)

McCarty (2001)

Looking ahead

Jaan Lepson

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTSugar Maple range projections
by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO2

Maple_GCMs

Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R: www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html

Shifts in species distributions are likely to be large

Climate change
impacts on
European beech
Niche-based model
DBIOMOD
W. Thuiller
ler

2000

2050

2090
2000

2050

2090

Mechanistic tree
growth model
CASTANEA
A Cheaib,C François,E DufrêneClimate Change includes
precipitation change
Temperature

Projectedchanges
for 2090

Precipitation

Lake Chad Basin

Lake Chad is 1/20th
the size it was 35years ago

Loss of stream segments able tosupport cold-water trout

Present+3㼻C

Source: Poff et al. 2002, based on Keheler and Rahel 1996

American pika (Ochotona princeps)

photo: J. MacKENZIE / www.pikaworks.com

70Dark red = high species richness

Species Extinctions
Number of Predicted Extinctions

Spatial Pattern ofSpecies Richness

60

S-curve fit:adj. r2 = 0.997
p = 0.001

50

4030

20

100012345678

Temperature Increase
110

Mean Range Size

Core Habitat Remaining (%)

10090807060
50403020100

N=Williams et al. 2003. Proc Roy Soc Lond. B: 270:1887-1892

656435801

Current+1.0+3.5+5.0+7.0

Temperature Scenario

Slide courtesy of Stephen Williams

Sea Level Rise in the Next 100 Years
Galveston

Whooping Crane
habitatMany
importantplaces on theTexas Coast
will disappear
Source: Camille Parmesan

Key Deer
National Key Deer Refuge
Big Pine Key, Florida•84,000 acres, Established 1957

Population Low:
27 in 1957
Population today:
Between 700 and 800

Photo courtesy of National Key Deer RefugeSource: World Wildlife FundComplications1Landscape is human dominated& habitat is fragmented

2

Species don’t move together

3

Change will not be linear or gradual4

System change

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTComplications
1

Landscape is human dominated& habitat is fragmented

2

Species don’t move together

3

Change will not be linear or gradual4

System change

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTEcosystems disassemble and species
reassemble into new ecosystems

Source: G.M. Hewitt and Nichols, R.A. 2005

Complications
1Landscape is human dominated& habitat is fragmented

2

Species don’t move together

3

Change will not be linear or gradual4

System change

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTSource: E. Maier-Reimer

Elevated night time temperatures
magnify bark beetle impact

Wednesday, March 1, 2006

‘Rapid Warming’ Spreads
Havoc in Canada’s Forests

QUESNEL, B.C. -Millions of acres ofCanada's lush green
forests are turning redin spasms of death. A
voraciousbeetle,
whose population has
exploded with thewarming climate, iskilling more trees
than wildfires orlogging.

Source: D. Struck 3/1/2006, Washington Post, pA1

Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (19592002)

Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation© WWF-Cannon / Jurgen FreundComplications
1

Landscape is human dominated& habitat is fragmented

2

Species don’t move together

3

Change will not be linear or gradual4

System change

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTCourtesy of NOAA/NCAR

Amazon Rainfall in 2010 and 2005
(deviation from 10-year mean)
2010

2005

S. Lewis, P. Brando, D. Nepstad, submitted

Critical thresholds in the Earth system?

Where local or regional changes may have strong effects on earthsystem interactions, feedbacks, or teleconnections

Acidifying oceans are a challenge for species
using calcium carbonate

Acidifying oceans are a challenge for species
at the base of the marine food chain[Source: www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification]

a pteropod, or sea butterfly, is a typeof planktonic mollusk

Deteriorating chemical condition for coral reefs
In the pre-industrial ocean, 99.8% of coral
reefs were near water with 䊀aragonite > 3.25

Under a 550 ppm atmosphere, < 2% of coral
reefs will be near water with 䊀aragonite > 3.25
01
Corrosive tocoral reefs

23䊀aragonite

45
Optimal forcoral reefs

Why is a CO2 target of 450ppm too high ?
Two degrees is too much
(1) Arctic sea-ice(2) Greenland ice-sheet stability(3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability(4) Major ecosystem disruptionIce-sheet collapse and sea-level rise

Last time Earth was 2oC warmer, sea-level was 4-6m higher

Data: Rohling et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience, 1, 38-42.

•At today’s level of 387ppm CO2, reefs areseriously declining and time-lagged effects will
result in their continued demise with parallel
impacts on other marine and coastalecosystems.
•Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will
not prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs
from the combined effects of climate change
and ocean acidification.
•To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs
atmospheric carbon dioxide level must be
reduced significantly below 350ppm.
Royal Society Meeting,July 6th 2009

What is a “safe” level?

James Hansen,et al., 2008

350 ppmProjected temperature risefor A1B & A1F1 scenarios (Hadley, 2009)

What canbe done

Adaptation-Revise Conservation Strategies
Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations-Reduce and eliminate emissions--revise energy base for society--reduce/eliminate deforestation

Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies

Increase natural connectivity tofacilitate species movement
Minimize climate change impacts
by reducing other stresses, e.g.,siltation on coral reefs

Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Revise Energy Base for SocietyLimit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)
1.5 Pg C y-1

4.2 Pg y-1

Atmosphere46%
2.6 Pg y-1

Land29%+

7.5 Pg C y-1

2.3 Pg y-1

Oceans26%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

Long atmospheric residence times
for greenhouse gases

What canbe doneLower Atmospheric CO

2- Restore ecosystems(biodiversity and carbon)- Non-biological CO removal
2

The Role of Life Processes

Origin ofland plants

Present-day CO2Expansion ofangiosperms

Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost
200-250 billion tons of carbon

Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems

CO2 PPM280Time

The Role of Forests

Restoring Grazing Land

Photo courtesy USDA NRCS

Modify Agriculture to Build up Soil Carbon

Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Re-Greening the Emerald Planet

yTHE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT