Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy – Impacts of Changes in the United States

The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy– Impacts of Changes in the United States

President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally, Oct. 2019, Minneapolis. (Photo AP/AFLO)

Since its inauguration in January 2017,

fundamentally change America’s role in

the Trump administration’s America

the international arena, what domestic

First policy, which seems unhesitantchanges have brought the Trump

about confronting other parts of theadministration to power in the United

world while paying little attention to theStates, and how these changes have been

free and open international order it hadand will be manifested in the Trump

been leading, has had significant impacts

administration’s foreign policy.

on the international community. The

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policies of the United States, Japan’sFirstly, the foreign and security policies

sole ally, have played a central role inof the Trump administration that arebuilding and maintaining the free andof such vital importance to Japan wereopen international order in the Indo-devised at the initiative of Secretary ofPacific region, which has a direct impactState Pompeo, former National Security

on the security environment and stable

Advisor Bolton, and former Secretary

economic development of Japan. It isof Defense Mattis, with the National

hence critical to understand whether

Security Strategy (NSS2017) released

or not the Trump administration willin December 2017 formulated with

significant involvement from former

administration’s ad hoc interpretation

National Security Advisor McMaster.

of what could benefit its national

The direction set by all these foreigninterests. The Trump administration’sand security policy experts was not thebasic stance on foreign policy, in other“populist nationalism” led mainly bywords, is to restructure its foreign

former Chief Strategist Bannon, whorelations to put American interests at

supported President Trump in the last

the very center at all times. Competitionpresidential campaign, but rather thehere is not based on ideology but rather

traditional hardline conservatism of

on means involving power and pressure

the Republican Party, which is now

to secure the stronger position needed

widelyfor the United States to realize its own

understoodas“principledrealism” or realism based on principles.

national interests.

This direction of principled realism
should be welcomed as it is conducive

Attention should be paid to its China

to maintaining an international orderpolicy in this regard. The Trump

based on the rule of law, as shown inadministration has drastically changed

the concerted policies of Japan and theUS

United States, for example, regarding

NSS2017 clearly defined China as a

the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)

revisionist

initiatives.

American power, influence and interests,

foreignpolicycountry

towardthatChina.

challenges

and undermines American security andAt the same time, however, this principledprosperity. A speech by Vice President

realism shows a strong emphasis on aPence in October 2018 at a think tank incompetitive and dualistic worldview

Washington, DC symbolized the Trumpputting America’s interests first in

administration’s hardline policy toward

all cases, which has led some to point

China,

out that power politics have now been

behavior in the international arena. Inrevived. Where the current approach

addition, the US Congress passed thedecisively differs from the great power

Taiwan Travel Act in March 2018 torivalry between the United States andfacilitate mutual visits by high-ranking

the USSR in the Cold War era, however,officials of the United States and Taiwan,

is that foreign policy is determined notthereby strengthening its involvement inby ideological values but by the Trump

Taiwan. Congress has also intensified

harshly

criticizing

Chinese12Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy – Impacts of Changes in the United States

its criticism of China over the Tibet andpolicies of the Trump administration

Uighur issues. Furthermore, as seen intoward China do not give any answers tothe passage of the August 2018 National

major post-Cold War questions of how

Defense Authorization Act, which bansthe United States will incorporate China

US government purchases of products

into the international community, andfrom five Chinese companies, including

what form the international community

Huawei Technologies (Huawei) andshould take. It makes prediction of future

Zhongxun (ZTE), and the December 2018

trends in the international situation

Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, whicheven more difficult.

promotes the sale of defense equipment
to Taiwan, Congress is going alongwith the administration in a bipartisanmanner, taking a whole-of-government
approach to impose stern measures on
China on various fronts. While passageof the bill requires the approval of theSenate and the signature of President
Trump, the House in October 2019

The trade negotiations at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse,Feb. 2019, Beijing. (Photo Reuters/AFLO)

passed the Hong Kong Human Rights
and Democracy Act, which requires
the United States to verify every year
whether China is observing the “onecountry, two systems” formula thatguarantees a high degree of autonomy
to Hong Kong. Again, however, theTrumpadministration’s

hardline

policies toward China that are not basedon ideology or values are susceptible
to pressure from President Trump’s
insistence in reducing the bilateral trade
deficit and could be used as a bargaining
chip in trade negotiations with China at
any time. In other words, the hardline

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Secondly, the unpredictability of the
Trump administration’s foreign policy
persists. The administration has, forinstance, abruptly accepted summit
meetings with North Korea whileabandoning its nuclear agreement withIran. In addition to its policy toward
China, the basic principles of its foreignand security policies are elusive and theirpredictability remains low. In particular,
America’s policy toward North Korea’sdenuclearization is not yet clear, evenafter the US-North Korea summit talks
held in Hanoi in June 2018 and Singapore

in February 2019. Even worse, President

Stated another way, President Trump,

Trump’s de facto acceptance of North

who is seeking reelection in the 2020

Korea’s launches of short-range ballisticpresidential

missiles after the two summit meetingsback to a populist position, and Japanraises serious concerns for its regional

needs to carefully watch whether theally Japan. Behind this elusivenessadministration’s foreign policy might fall

and unpredictability of the Trump

victim to populism. In particular withadministration’s foreign policy, there

regard to economic and trade policies

lies the conflict between populism andthat directly affect the interests of theelitism in the administration. President

American voters, extra attention should

Trump won the 2016 presidential election

be paid not only to the tariffs on steel andfrom a populist stance that differedaluminum already imposed on imports

from so-called foreign policy experts,

from Japan but also to the possible

even denying the value of NATO in

imposition of tariffs on automobile

America’s foreign policy. After taking

imports despite the agreement reachedoffice at the White House, however,in September 2019 between the two

he was viewed to have compromised

countries, as President Trump has been

with, or been incorporated into, “themore persistent in materializing hisestablishment” to some extent by

populist election pledges than anyone

appointing James Mattis, a foreign andhad expected. Japan must therefore

security policy expert, as Secretary ofcontinue to appropriately remind theDefense. As mentioned earlier, although

Trump administration of the value

his position regarding the Japan-USof the alliance and the importancealliance, including the policy on a Freeof maintaining a free and fair trade/and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), is close

economic system.

election,couldswing

to that of the conventional diplomaticand security establishments, he still

It is also important to note that

undeniably has populist tendencies, asthe dismissal of Bolton from theevidenced by his dismissal of Mattis as

post of National Security Advisor

Secretary of Defense and his sudden

has given growing impetus to theannouncement of the withdrawal of US

noninterventionists

forces from Syria, although the latterand security policy circles who claim

was subsequently revised partially.

that

thein

diplomaticUS
andforeignsecurity14

Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy – Impacts of Changes in the United States

establishments’ support for the use ofgiven President Trump a solid support

military power has been forcing thebase. While the results of the 2018

United States to fight endless wars.

midterm elections followed a historicalThistendency

pattern, the come-from-behind victory

was already evident in the Obamain the House of Representatives thatadministration, and it is reasonable togave the Democratic Party a majority

assume that noninterventionism is now

was a major blow to the scandal-ridden

an idea widely shared by the American

Trumpelectorate left or right. Even think tanks

tempered, however, by the fact that thewith policy experts are beginning to see

Republicans did not suffer a crushinga movement to unite both left and rightdefeat in the Senate and maintained

noninterventionist

Thetheir majority. Although numerous

Quincy Institute, a noninterventionist

clashes with Democrats are expected

think tank, was founded after thein Congress, especially in the House,

Trump administration’s inauguration

it may be said that the conclusions ofand funded both by left-leaning andSpecial Counsel Mueller’s March 2019

right-leaning

includingreport on “Russia-Gate” concerning

the liberal George Soros and theRussian intervention in the 2016 US

conservative Koch brothers. With thesepresidential election were not the worst

facts in mind, close attention should

outcome for the president. In the run-be paid to how the conflict between

up to the 2020 presidential election,

America First and US internationalism

there have also been allegations raised

plays out in forming the United States’

since the summer of 2019 that he madeforeign policy.

requests to Ukraine for intervention in

noninterventionistmovements.

billionaires,administration.

Thiswasthe coming presidential election, and15

On the domestic policy front, the Trump

the possibility of his dismissal based on

administration succeeded in appointing

a conviction at an impeachment trial,conservative judges not only to thewhich has dogged President Trump since

Supreme Court but also in the federal

his inauguration, has not disappeared.

judiciary, including appellate and district

If crucial evidence emerges during

courts. It also enacted a tax cut that it

thedeems its greatest achievement. These,

president could expect to lose a number

along with a strong economy, haveof his supporters although, considering

impeachment

proceedings,

thethe balance of Congress, the possibility

complete retraction of remarks he madeof impeachment is not yet that great

during the 2016 presidential campaign.

at this point. To the contrary, theThere have since been repeated summit

Democratic Party could face difficulties,

meetings and telephone conversations

in battleground states critical for thebetween the two leaders that have2020 elections if the party leans too

maintained good relations, as seen, forprogressive in its political agenda in theexample, in President Trump’s May

midst of serious political polarization.

2019 visit to Japan as its first state guest

In all, the nomination of the Democratic

in the Reiwa era. Prime Minister Abe

candidate and the outcome of the 2020

has built a particularly close personalpresidential election are still very much

relationship with President Trump thatup in the air.

has itself become a valuable asset forJapan. While there are some instances

Finally, the relationship between Japanin which Japanese and American

and the United States has developed

policies part ways, as seen in the US’fairly smoothly despite initial concerns

withdrawal from TPP negotiations andfollowing the inauguration of President

its imposition of tariffs on steel andTrump. At the summit meeting held inaluminum, Japan must continue its

February 2017, for example, the leadersefforts to maintain a strong relationshipof the two countries confirmed that thewith the United States, supporting a

Japan-US alliance is the cornerstone

win-win policy for both countries andof peace, prosperity and freedom in

the free and open international order,

the region. At the same time, they also

by taking into account the overall trends

confirmed that the United States wouldin the United States in both the publicdefend Japan with its nuclear andand private sectors, while leveraging theconventional forces, and that Article 5

close relationship established by Primeof the Japan-US Security Treaty, which

Minister Abe with President Trump.■stipulates the United States’ obligation
to defend Japan, applies to the Senkaku
Islands. In addition, at a joint press
conference, President Trump expressed
his gratitude to Japan for hosting USforces. These statements represent a16