PacNet
Number 87

Chinese Announcement of the Air Defense Identification
Zone – What Follows? by Yoichiro Sato
Yoichiro Sato (yoichiro_sato@yahoo.com) is a visiting
researcher at Colorado School of Mines and a professor at
Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan.
China last month announced it had established an Air
Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea thatbroadly overlaps with Japan’s ADIZ and includes theterritorial airspace over the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands,
to which China has claimed sovereignty. The Chinese ADIZ
also overlaps South Korea’s ADIZ over the ROK-controlled
Ieodo (called Suyan by China) Reef, to which China also has aclaim. The United States, Japan, and South Korea all rejected
the Chinese ADIZ. On Nov. 25, two B-52 bombers left Guamand flew through the China-declared ADIZ in defiance of theChinese demand for a prior notification. Now what follows?
First, the Chinese declaration of the ADIZ per se does notalter who controls this airspace or the Senkaku Islands
themselves. Chinese does not have the capability to enforce anADIZ deep into the East China Sea against the United Statesand Japan. Nor does the ADIZ enhance China’s legal claim tothe Senkaku Islands. Sovereignty over the air and maritime
spaces derive from sovereign control of the land, and not viceversa. Setting precedence of air and maritime patrols aroundthe Senkaku Islands would not amount to a sufficient
challenge to Japan’s record of administrative control.

Pacific Forum CSIS
Honolulu, Hawaii
Dec. 4, 2013
under the influence of the Chinese Communist Party, praised
the calm response by the Chinese government and noted that
the United States would not be targeted as long as it “does notgo too far,” according to a Reuters report. Shen Jinke’sannouncement did not specify whether the two US planes
entered the ADIZ, while alleging the 10 Japanese planes did.
Japanese defense sources denied that the Japanese militaryplanes were subjected to monitoring by the Chinese planes
without confirming or denying Japanese flights into the Chinadeclared ADIZ took place. An anonymous US defense official
was quoted in the same Reuters report saying only US militaryplanes have continued flying in the zone. The Chinese
message to Japan is a warning against increased patrol sorties
by Japan into the zone. The message to the United States isreassurance that China does not intend to challenge US“freedom of navigation and overflight.” The message to its
domestic audience is that China has improved its air defense
against the Japan.

It is not likely that the Chinese government would retract
the gist of ADIZ-related demands, although minor
modifications through discussions with the United States andSouth Korea are possible. Agreeing on demarcation with
South Korea’s ADIZ would earn China a diplomatic victoryvis-à-vis Japan. Exempting flights through the zone bycommercial airliners from the pre-notification requirement
would give the United States diplomatic credit, while allowing
China an honorable retreat. Adjustments with Japan’s interests
have to be sought in a more informal manner due to the highSecond, over the long term, China would naturally wish apolitical tension between the two countries. Face-saving forcapability to enforce the declared ADIZ, but at the moment its
the Chinese leadership is the key to reducing present tension.
main intention is political. Taking an aggressive stance
It is unlikely that Japan would stop patrolling the overlapping
specifically against Japan is driven primarily by China’s
part of the ADIZ, including the airspace around the Senkaku
domestic politics. China’s “peaceful rise” and a “new major
Islands. However, limiting the number of patrol sorties ispower relationship” are relevant to its relations with thepossible as long as China reciprocates.
United States, but not Japan. While encouraging investment
from and trade with Japan to sustain China’s economic
Chinese military planes have entered the Japanese ADIZ
growth, its pro-capitalism leaders have defended themselves and prompted scrambles by Japanese fighter planes. Chinese
against domestic political opponents by taking a tougher flights into the now overlapping part of the ADIZ are old news
diplomatic stance against Japan after Tokyo’s decision to to the Japanese as long as their frequency does not rise.
nationalize the Senkaku Islands in September 2012.
However, Chinese planes must absolutely avoid the territorial
airspace over the Senkaku Islands. Furthermore, inside theChina’s efforts to differentiate its stances toward Japan
overlapping part of the ADIZ, China has to commit itself toand the United States to drive a wedge between those allies
not forcing the Japanese planes to divert or land. The absence
are visible in the ways the ADIZ is defined and itsof accidents despite numerous scrambles by the Japanese
implementation pronounced. China’s demand that all airplanes
against Chinese incursions reflects the skills and theflying through the ADIZ provide prior notification did not
nonaggressive procedures followed by Japanese pilots.
differentiate China-bound and transiting commercial flights.
Chinese fighter pilots must be properly trained to avoid an
China successfully dared US carriers with extended service toincident like the collision with a US EP-3 plane in 2001 overSoutheast Asian destinations via Tokyo to comply with its
the South China Sea.
demands, while the Japanese government instructed its
national carriers to defy the Chinese request. On Nov. 29, PacNet commentaries represent the views of the respective
Chinese Air Force spokesperson Shen Jinke announced that authors. Alternative viewpoints are always welcomed.
Chinese fighter planes scrambled against two US and 10
Japanese military planes. The Global Times, a tabloid paper
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