S p e c i a l R o u n d Ta b l e C o n fe r e n c e o n G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t P r o b l e m s

Conditionsfor
Survival
Toward a “Solar Energy-Based Society”
Full of Vibrant Life

Special Round Table Conference on
Global Environment Problems

Conditions for
Survival
Toward a “Solar Energy-Based Society”
Full of Vibrant Life

Introduction
The global environment today is facing an array ofproblems ranging from global warming, weather
anomalies, increased population, food and water resource
shortages, and loss of biodiversity, to regional conflicts
and poverty problems.
In 1972, the Club of Rome warned in its book The Limits
to Growth that if the population of the world continued
to increase and if resources continued to be consumed
with ever greater emissions of pollutants, there would bea serious impact on world development. In response, inthe 1980s, the idea of sustainable development became
widely accepted. Subsequently, at the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development held in Riode Janeiro in 1992, the international community signed up
to the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
and agreed to implement an action plan, named the Agenda
21. This seemed to mark the beginning of human efforts
to solve environmental problems. In reality, however, weentered the 21st century without seeing signiﬁcant actions
taken to mitigate these problems.
Even now, the majority of people seem disinclined
to face this reality and imagine that someone will solve
the problems for them or else they think vaguely that the
problem will somehow solve itself.

Introduction

1Nonetheless, no one can now afford to merely sit on
the sidelines in the ﬁght against global warming and otherenvironmental problems. Unless each and every memberof the international community becomes fully awareof the seriousness of the problems and takes action, asolution will never be found.
In light of this, the Asahi Glass Foundation in thesincere hope of encouraging all people to think and act
to protect the Earth by clarifying the issue and proposing
solutions, asked its trustees and councilors, who havea great deal of knowledge and expertise on social andenvironmental problems, to take time to discuss thematter. Those discussions resulted in the publication ofthis book, which we feel will be a catalyst in reaching an
eventual solution.
We sincerely hope that each and every one of you will
read this report, think about what you can do, and actuallytake a step forward. We believe that this is the only way
we can save the Earth from its present crisis.
In conclusion, I would like to wish you all the best ofhealth.
April 2010

Hiromichi Seya

Chairman of the Asahi Glass Foundation

2

Conditions for Survival
Toward a Solar Energy-Based Society
Full of Vibrant Life

Contents

Rapid Increase of Climate Refugees
in Developing Countries

Introduction

Hiromichi Seya

─What is Our Choice48

Chairman of the Asahi Glass Foundation

Publication of This Report:
How This Report Came Out
Akio Morishima

Damaging Nature Means Damaging Ourselves

1

45

10

Chairman of the Round Table Conference,
Trustee of the Asahi Glass Foundation

Part 2 Conditions for Survival
Chapter 1

Part 1 Today’s Global Environment

The Largest Crisis
Ever Faced by Mankind
─Global Environmental Problems

52

1 Departure from The Limits to Growth54

2 Human Activities Facing Limits

61

Today s Global Environment

19

The Lungs of the Earth
Destroyed by Human Activities

23(1) Urbanization Sets Us Apart from Nature

61

Accelerated Loss of Biodiversity

25(2) Depletion of Energy Resources

64

Water Resources Disappearing from the Earth

28(3) Sustainable and Fair Use of Water Resources

70

Well-Fed Countries and Starving Countries

32(4) Sustainability and Fairness in Securing Food76

Depletion of Fossil Fuels

35

3 Crisis Creeping in

83

Rapidly Increasing Energy Consumption

40(1) Global Warming

83

Record-Breaking Droughts
Hit Grain-Producing Regions(2) Loss of Biodiversity

90

42

Chapter 2

A Vision for the 21st Century
─A Solar Energy-Based Society

104

1 What Is a Solar Energy-Based Society?

106(1) As a biological being and a social being

106(2) A Vibrant Solar Energy-Based Society(3) Development That Does Not Obstruct

the Natural Circulation of Water(4) Protecting Productivity of the Land and

127

128

the Fair Distribution of Food

132

108

2 Toward a Sustainable Use of Energy

135(3) Vision of a Solar Energy-Based Society

111(1) Abundant Solar Energy and Its Uses

135

2 Building a Solar Energy-Based Society

116(2) Solar Energy and the Sustainable Society

137(1) Shift to a Society that is

in Harmony with Nature(2) Fair Distribution and Passing Onof the Common Assets of Mankind(3) Dialogue for building a“Solar Energy-Based Society(4) Science and Technology Toward Building a“Solar Energy-Based Society

Chapter 3(2) Development that is in Harmony with Nature

Future Society Created by
Overcoming Crises

116

117

118

120

The Path to a Vibrant Solar Energy-Based Society

122

1 Building a Society that Values Nature Itself

124(1) Conservation of the Natural Environment

125

3 Changing Lifestyles

150(1) Our lifestyles need to change

150(2) What Should We Seek in Future Lifestyles

152(3) Education to Change Our Lifestyles

155(4) Establishing a System to Promote

Our Lifestyle Change

4 A Vibrant Society Full of Diversity andCharacterized by Cooperation
between Urban and Rural Areas(1) Urban and Rural Areas Full ofVigor and Diversity

157

159

160

(2) Cooperation in Creating an Independent

Sustainable Natural Resource
Circulation Regional Zone

166

5 Improving the Social System andInternational Cooperation(1) Strong Commitment

from Politicians and Governments(2) International Cooperation in

Building a Solar Energy-Based Society

Final
Chapter

Restoring a Vibrant Earth

168

169

1 Restoring a Vibrant Earth Full of Life174

2 New Ideas for a New Age

177(1) Nature Provides the Foundation for Our Lives

177(2) Consideration for Others

178
181

(1) Solving Problems by Gathering Wisdom(2) Creating a Social System to Nurture“a Mind of Consideration for Others(3) Dialogue and International Cooperation to

Build a Network for a Global Society

4 Establishing the Blue Planet
and a Vibrant Society

Building Public Support for The Environment

193

Threatening Curves, Simple Ideas,
and a Complex Situation

202

Could Food Shortages
Bring Down Civilization?

212

Achieving Food for All and Forever

219

Crisis in Leadership around
Sustainable Development

226

Mankind and The Environment

235

Protecting the Global Environment
by Starting from What We Can Do

244

Fairness for Survival of Humankind

251

Prof. Jeffrey A. McNeely, the 2nd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1993)

Prof. Dr. Eugen Seibold, the 3rd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1994)

172

from Both Science and Technology
and Knowledge in the Fields ofthe Human and Social Sciences

Messages from theBlue Planet Prize Laureates

168

Realizing the Blue Planet

3 Approaches to Realizing the Blue Planet

Part 3Mr. Lester R. Brown, the 3rd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1994)

Dr. M S Swaminathan, the 5th Blue Planet Prize laureate (1996)

Dr. Karl-Henrik Robèrt, the 9th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2000)

Dr. Norman Myers, the 10th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2001)

181

Dr. Akira Miyawaki, the 15th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2006)

182

Dr. Emil Salim, the 15th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2006)

185

188

Publication of This Report:
How This Report Came Out
Akio Morishima

Chairman of the Round Table Conference,
Trustee of the Asahi Glass Foundation

Since 1992, the Asahi Glass Foundation has awarded the Blue
Planet Prize to those researchers and activists who have madesignificant achievements from a global perspective in theirresearch on global environmental problems and in activities thatraised awareness of global environmental problems. In 2007,
to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the Blue Planet Prize, theFoundation decided on a plan to revisit what the Club of Rome
did in 1972 when it published its book The Limits to Growth .
The plan was to have a Special Round Table Conference of thetrustees and councilors of the Foundation to discuss the issue of
how the current generation can tackle the global environmental
problems and raise awareness of these problems in civil society
by also providing information on the current situation. As shownin the attached table, members of the Conference include scholars,
researchers, former government officials, and businesspersons,
who are all leaders in their respective fields. Although not all ofthem are experts on the environment, they have all acquired a
deep knowledge of environmental problems through leading-edge
activities in their respective ﬁelds.
The Asahi Glass Foundation appointed me as chairman of theConference based on my association with the Foundation and mycareer background. I am one of the trustees of the Foundation andhave long been engaged in research on environmental laws and inpolicy making. As chairman, I participated in the basic selection
process for the basic themes to be discussed by members of theConference and the reference materials that needed to be collected.
In the creation of this report and in all other details, however,Mr. Keiichi Uchida, who was the senior executive director of
the Foundation, took overall responsibility as representative of
the Secretariat of the Foundation. We commissioned the work ofcollecting and analyzing the reference materials to the Mitsubishi
Research Institute (team leader: Senior Researcher Toru Hashi).
Prior to each meeting of the Conference, the data and referencematerials necessary to discuss the theme selected by the Secretariat
for the meeting were distributed to each of the members. Members
discussed the theme for a total of four hours per meeting: two hours
in the morning and again in the afternoon. At the beginning of themeeting, the staff of the Secretariat gave a brief explanation of thereference materials and I explained the key points in the theme
under discussion. However, most of the time was spent among themembers freely discussing the theme.
Conference members had their first meeting in December
2006 and have met eight times in total, with the last meeting held
in November 2009. In March 2009, the Conference published
its interim report under the same title as this report (Conditionsfor Survival). Just like the interim report, the final report of theConference was aimed to be both excellent in content and readable
by a wide range of the public.
Part 1 of this ﬁnal report outlines current global environmental
problems and serves as an introduction to the entire report.
Part 2 gives the results of the Conference discussions. Chapter
1 summarizes the data and reference materials that were
submitted to the Conference, and demonstrates how serious

Publication of This Report: How This Report Came Out?

11

current environmental problems are by giving actual data on
global warming, loss of biodiversity and others. Chapters 2 and3 summarize the results of the discussions. Here the Conference
proposes the concept of a solar energy-based society as a newsocietal vision ( image ) for the 21st century together with themeasures to be implemented to achieve that vision. In fact, theheated discussions that took place at the Conference covered
so diverse dimensions that it was not feasible to incorporate in
the report all the opinions given by the members all of whom
provided expert knowledge from various perspectives. Thus, thereport presents the highest common factors in my judgment that
all members agreed with, including the concept of a solar energybased society.
This report is based on the following fundamental ideas: (1)the human race, as a living being, bases its existence on nature; (2)therefore, if human society damages nature, the human race cannot
survive as a living being; (3) it is therefore necessary for the humanrace to aim at creating a society that will not damage nature in the
21st century, and in this report we call such a vibrant society asolar energy-based society. And (4) in creating a solar energybased society , human activities must be within the limits of andnot countering the natural rule, and to these ends, in their relations
among themselves and with society, it is important for people tohave respect for others and for nature and to live in harmony, insteadof confronting and competing with each other. In the ﬁnal chapter ofPart 2, this concept is outlined and summarized in some detail.
In Part 3, eight Blue Planet Prize laureates contributed messages,
expressing their opinions on global environmental problems.
In preparing this report, I would like to thank the members of
the Conference for providing their expert knowledge and a range

12of new and innovative ideas. I also would like to express myheartfelt gratitude to former Senior Executive Director Mr. Keiichi
Uchida, who coordinated the diverse discussions at the Conference
over the last three years, culminating in the creation of a vision for
a new solar energy-based society.
Although I was responsible to Chairman Seya and the trustees
and councilors of the Foundation for the ﬁnal form of the report,
it would never have been completed without the committed
involvement of Mr. Uchida and other members of the Secretariat.
I also would like to take this opportunity to thank Chairman Seyafor allowing me to postpone publication of the report several times
in our efforts to ensure that it would be the best we were capable ofproducing.
We welcome your opinions and criticisms on our conceptsof a solar energy-based society and “consideration for others(including nature and other living beings) proposed in this report.
Please send them to the Asahi Glass Foundation. With the publicationof this report, the Conference has completed its mission and will
stand down for the present. We look forward to receiving yourcomments.

Publication of This Report: How This Report Came Out?

13

Special Round Table Conference on
Global Environment Problems (As of April 1, 2010)

Chairman

Hiromichi Seya

Hiroyuki Yoshikawa Director-General, Center for Research andSenior Corporate Advisor, former Chairman,
former President, Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.

Senior Executive Director

Shunichi Samejima Senior Executive Director, the Asahi Glass Foundation;
AdvisorTrustees

14

Former Chief Executive, F2 Chemicals Ltd.
Advisor, former Senior Executive Director,
the Asahi Glass Foundation
Vice President, Kinki University; Director,
Takeshi Endo
Molecular Engineering Institute Kinki University;
Professor Emeritus, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Ryoichi Ito
Yukiharu Kodama President, The Mechanical Social Systems Foundation;
Former Administrative Vice-minister ofInternational Trade and Industry
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo;
Jiro Kondo
Former President, Science Council of Japan
Professor, Nanzan University;
Takeshi Kosizuka
Professor Emeritus, University of Tsukuba
Professor, Hosei University;
Takashi Miyajima
Professor Emeritus, Ochanomizu University
Special Research Advisor, Institute for
Akio Morishima
Global Environmental Strategies;
Professor Emeritus, Nagoya University
Shinroku Morohashi Counsellor, former Chairman,
former President, Mitsubishi Corporation
Yasunori Nishijima President, Kyoto City University of Arts,
Professor Emeritus, former President, Kyoto University
President, RIKEN
Ryoji Noyori
Presidnet, Building Maintenance & Management Center;Toshio Ojima
Professor Emeritus, Waseda University
Chairman, Board of Trustees, Fukuoka Shika Gakuen;
Kenzo Tanaka
Professor Emeritus, former President, Kyushu University

Councillors

Keiichi Uchida

Masuo Aizawa
Yohichi Gohshi
Michiko Imai
Minoru Makihara
Nobuo Matsunaga
Keiko Nakamura
Hitoshi Osaki
Niro Shimada
Tsukasa Shimizu
Yuichi Shionoya

AuditorJunjiro Takahashi
Shigemitsu Miki
Masashi Sakamoto

Former Councillor Ryohachi Kusaba
Former Auditor
Kiyoshi Tazawa

Development Strategy, Japan Science and Technology Agency;
Former President, Science Council of Japan
Former President, University of Tokyo
Executive member, the Council for Science andTechnology Policy; Professor Emeritus, former
President, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Executive Auditor, University of Tsukuba;
Former President, National Institute for Environmental Studies;
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Director, Le Verseau Inc.
Senior Corporate Advisor, former Chairman,
former President, Mitsubishi CorporationVice-Chairman, The Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs; Former Ambassador
to the United States of America
Director General, JT Biohistory Research Hall
Special Advisor to the President,
National Institutes for the Humanities;
Former Commissioner for Cultural Affairs
Former Chief Justice, The Supreme Court of Japan
Chairman, Tokyo Kasei University;
Professor Emeritus, former President, Waseda University
Professor Emeritus, former President,
Hitotsubashi University
Advisor, Academyhills; Professor Emeritus, Keio University
Senior Advisor, former Chairman,
The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.;
Former President, The Mitsubishi Bank, Ltd.
Former Statutory Auditor, Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.
Former Chief Justice, The Supreme Court of Japan
Former Auditor, Asahi Glass Co., Ltd.

15

Part 1

Today’s Global
EnvironmentToday’s Global Environment
In recent years, news of receding glaciers, melting
permafrost, and the decrease in Arctic sea ice havereached our ears, which could be said to indicate thatmother Earth is beginning to face various unprecedented
abnormal changes. And further, when we hear of theincrease in large natural disasters such as droughts, heatwaves, heavy rains, floods, and large hurricanes acrossthe globe due to disturbances in the balance of normal
weather patterns, we must ask ourselves, is something
wrong or different from the past?
When we look at the entire globe, it becomes evenclearer that these phenomena and changes in the climate
are large and growing in seriousness; and there is a highprobability that these abnormal changes are induced byhuman activities.
It is said that economic development accompanied bymass consumption of fossil fuels has increased the levelof greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to a rise inaverage global temperature, resulting in global warming.
This global warming is said to have brought the extreme
climate change and to be the cause of various natural
disasters, which in turn could accelerate food and waterPart 1 Today s Global Environment

19

shortages, and eventually increase the number of refugees
across the world.
On the other hand, the global population has been
increasing sharply, and in order to meet the increased
demand for food, there is a further need to develop land
for agriculture and pasture. Irrigating land not suitablefor farming is causing our rivers and lakes to dry up andis resulting in the depletion of groundwater reserves.
Moreover, land development is reducing the area of
tropical rainforests. The loss of these rainforests which aresaid to be the lungs of the Earth and cradle of life will
not only hasten the destruction of the local ecosystems,
but will also extend its effect to Earth s climate globally.
The crisis the global environment is facing is often
somehow obscured by the benefits brought about by
economic growth. We are also busy with the tasks of ourdaily life and tend to forget to take notice of the situation.
Nonetheless, if we do not act to rescue the Earth fromits present crisis, the global environment, which provides
us with the foundation for our lives, will be damaged
irrevocably. We would like you to first understand whatreally is happening to the Earth today.

“The Lungs of the Earth”
destroyed by human activities

Loss of biodiversity
accelerated

Water resources
disappearing from the EarthWell-fed countries andstarving countries

Fossil fuels heading
towards depletion

Rapid increase in energy
consumption

Record-breaking droughts
hitting grain-growing regions

Rapid increase in “climate refugees”
in developing countries

20

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

21

The “Lungs of the Earth”
Destroyed by Human Activities
Thirty percent of the land area on Earth is covered by green forests
extending over 40 million square meters in total. However, the area
occupied by these precious forests has been rapidly decreasing inrecent years.
According to the Untied Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), a total of 73,200 square meters of forest waslost during the period from 2000 to 2005. This means that a forest
area equivalent to around 20 percent of Japan s land area is lost
every year.
The major reason why the forested areas continue to decreaseis human activities, such as large-scale felling of trees for timber,clearing for pastureland and farmland, and slash-and-burn
agriculture.
Among the many types of forest thus disappearing across theglobe, the loss of tropical rainforest poses a particularly serious
problem.
It is said that the rainforests of South America, Southeast Asia,and the central part of Africa alone produce about 40 percent ofoxygen generated on Earth.
In particular, the Amazon rainforest that extends over the
Amazon River basin is thought to produce about one quarter of the
Earth s oxygen, and this is why the Amazon forest is known as thelungs of the Earth.
Every year, however, 20,000 to 30,000 square meters of Amazon
Eastern part of the state of Acre, Brazil / Amazon rainforest increasingly destroyed
In the eastern part of the state of Acre, which is the forefront of development in the region, land is being
converted into sugarcane fields to produce bioethanol, which has recently become more popular as an alternative fuel. Various elements interacting are causing recent deforestation and they are not easy to define,as compared to the large-scale development projects that were the major cause in the 1970s and 1980s.
© MARK EDWARDS/Still Pictures

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

23

rainforest are lost against the backdrop of an increase in the global
demand for food.
In Brazil, which is a major producer of meat and soybeans,from the late 1980s, the rainforest of the Amazon River basin has
been burned down and turned into pastureland. Accordingly, thenumber of cattle raised in Brazil increased by 42 million over theperiod from 1994 to 2007, and at least 80% of these were in the
Amazon River basin. Moreover in recent years, more and more
rainforests have been turned into ﬁelds to grow soybeans, corn, andsugarcane, due to the increased demand for soybeans for feed anddemand for bio-fuels.
To curb this trend, the Brazilian government strengthened
its law enforcement capability by introducing a satellite forest
monitoring system and thus the frequency of illegal tree fellinghas decreased over the past several years. However, trees in therainforests are still being felled indiscriminately to create farmland
and pastureland. To produce the food we consume, the rainforests
continue to be destroyed.
If nothing is done to remedy the situation and the deforestationof the rainforests does not cease, within several decades we could
lose the entire Amazon rainforest, which serves as the Earth s lungs.
Moreover, deforestation may potentially have a serious impact on
global climate change.

24

Accelerated Loss ofBiodiversity
Rainforests in the Amazon and other areas are rich in biodiversity.
At present, it is estimated that there are as many as 50 to 100
million species living on the Earth, of which only about 1.6 million
have been identiﬁed. Among those, about 50 to 90 percent are said
to live in the rainforests, which accounts for only seven percent of
the Earth s area.
The decrease in rainforests, which are rich in ecosystems, will
directly lead to a mass extinction of wildlife and is accelerating theloss of biodiversity.
Even in the rainforests of Southeast Asia, rapid extensive
logging has taken place recently. On the island of Borneo, locatedin the middle of the region, forests which used to cover 95 percentof the island have now decreased to around 50 percent. Becauseof this, orangutans, which only live on the islands of Borneo andSumatra, are now in danger of extinction.
The major reason why the orangutan population is decreasingis the construction of oil palm plantations in Borneo and Sumatra.
Palm oil extracted from oil palm is used as cooking oil, an
ingredient in cosmetics, and as a material for cleaning agents that
do not pollute oceans and rivers as synthetic detergents do. In
recent years, the demand for its use as bio-fuel has increased with
its low CO2 emitting potential. To mass produce oil palm for earth
friendly palm oil, in Borneo and Sumatra, rainforests are being
turned into oil palm plantations. As a result, about 80 percent ofPart 1 Today s Global Environment

25

the orangutan habitat has disappeared over the past 20 years. If theforests continue to be felled at the present pace, orangutans will
become extinct in 20 years.
In addition to tropical rainforests, the lakes, ponds, moors,
tidelands, and paddy ﬁelds around us are also rich in biodiversity.
However, these wetlands are rapidly being lost all over the world
to land reclamation projects to create land for farming and industry.
The Earth is now entering into its sixth mass extinction period.
When the last mass extinction occurred 65 million years ago, many
dinosaur species became extinct. However, the danger of mass
extinction which the Earth is now facing is far different from thosethe Earth faced in the previous five periods, as those in the past
were caused by changes in the natural environment, but it is wehuman beings who are causing the present crisis.
The rate of extinction is also much faster. The present extinction
rate is about 1,000 times faster than that prior to the modern age,meaning that 40,000 species become extinct every year.
We are thus in a period of mass extinction, and the Earth s
biodiversity is being seriously threatened.

The island of Borneo, Indonesia/Orangutans in danger of extinction
At present, the numbers of orangutans are estimated to have dropped below 7,000 in Sumatra and to lessthan 55,000 in Borneo which is twice as large as Japan. But even in the national parks, rapid deforestationand increased poaching are continuing, making further estimates in the actual number of orangutans falleven lower.
© McPHOTO/Blickwinkel/Still Pictures

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

27

Water Resources Disappearing
from the EarthThe Earth is a blue aquatic planet. But 97.5 percent of its water liesin the oceans and is saline, which in turn means that freshwater
resources available for human beings account for only 0.01 percent
of all the water on the planet. We rely for our existence on thislimited water supply.
These precious water resources, however, are rapidly being
depleted due to human activities, and people are suffering fromwater shortages all across the globe.
The Aral Sea, which lies between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, used
to be a salt lake full of water into which the Amu Darya and the Syr
Darya rivers drained. There was no outﬂow from this huge salt lake
and with its vastness was called a sea. It was the fourth largest lake inthe world extending over 66,000 square kilometers, equivalent to thesize of Hokkaido, the second largest, most northern island in Japan.
The ﬁshing industry prospered with catches from the Aral Sea
amounting to about 60,000 tons per year. The local inhabitants felt
blessed by nature.
The Aral Sea provided an oasis in central Asia, helping tokeep temperatures and humidity at stable levels and maintaining adiversity of both animals and plants in the region. However, now
the lake is in danger of disappearing, not by the end of the century,
but in the next 10 years.
It was a minor change they thought at the time. Diversions weremade to rivers ﬂowing into the Aral Sea. In the 1950s, the former Soviet

28

Union started a large project to divert the rivers to irrigate the desert toproduce wheat and cotton. As a result, cotton production in Uzbekistan
increased from less than 1.5 million tons in the 1940s to ﬁve million
tons in 1986. It seemed like a symbol indicating that mankind could
benefit by changing nature. However, from the 1960s, the amountof water flowing into the lake from the freshwater rivers began todecrease, and accordingly the water level of the lake began to drop.
The depletion of water resources generates a vicious circle. In
this case, as the water level in the salt lake lowered and the lake
started to dry up, rainfall decreased and the amount of water ﬂowing
into the lake started to drop steadily. Desertification followed withlocal vegetation and trees dying and surface soil lost, which further
accelerated the desertiﬁcation of the area. The salt concentration in thelake water got higher and the cotton ﬁelds began to suffer salt damage.
It became impossible to grow cotton and most of the living beings in
the vicinity of the lake also died, and the ﬁshing industry collapsed.
The area began to be hit by sand storms that covered some local towns
and that made it impossible for inhabitants to continue to live in thearea. The area around the Aral Sea thus became a dead town.
Over the 50 years since the implementation of the irrigation
project, the Aral Sea, an area the size of Hokkaido, has shrunk toa salt desert in the surrounding area. Ten years from now, only 60
years after humans changed the natural cycle, the lake may ﬁnallydisappear altogether.
In order to preserve our water resources, we must recognize that
it is necessary to keep a good balance on its supply and demand bydevising and implementing appropriate measures. It is very difﬁcult toregain that balance once it is disturbed. Therefore, people of all regions
are required to maintain a balance between supply and demand in theiruse of water and ensure that the water quality is maintained.

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

29

The Aral Sea in Central Asia/Comparison between 1989 (photo on left) and 2008 (photo on right)
The Aral Sea has been shrinking since 1960. In 1989 it was separated into two parts (the northern partcalled “the Small Aral Sea” and the southern part called “the Large Aral Sea”). Subsequently, around 2005,
the Large Aral Sea was again separated into eastern and western parts. The shrinking of the lake and theresulting drastic changes in the local environment, all the result of human activities, are said to represent thelargest example of environmental destruction in the 20th century.

Well-Fed Countries andStarving Countries
The annual world production of cereals amounts to about twobillion tons. If this amount were distributed to all the people aroundthe world as primary food, the per-capita quota per year would
be 340 kilograms. This amount is enough to feed about 13 billion
people and therefore should be sufﬁcient to support the lives of theapproximately 6.8 billion people currently living in the world.
If that is the case, why are there still so many people starving
in the world? The fundamental reason for this is that populations
are increasing only in speciﬁc regions and resources are distributed
unequally across the world.
You need four kilograms of corn feed to produce one kilogramof chicken. For one kilogram of beef, it will be 11 kilograms ofcorn feed. When people eat more meat, instead of eating cereals
and soybean directly, the overall consumption of cereals increases
substantially.
Both in the developed countries and emerging economies, when
economic development takes place, people radically shift theireating habits from eating cereals as the primary food to eating more
non-staple foods including meat. For example, Japan imports 10
percent of the wheat produced in the world. Although 30 percent of
this imported wheat is consumed as food, nearly 70 percent of it isused for livestock feed. Although everyone in the world could be
fed if crops were distributed equally across the world, the reality
is different with a gap being generated: people in some regions get
Somalia, Africa/Starving children
Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world and the malnutrition rate among the children there
is very high. The country has large numbers of refugees from its civil wars, and with the lasting drought,
more than half of all livestock has died in many of the regions and the production of cereals has dropped bymore than half. The number of people who have access to safe water is very low at below 30 percent.
© Crispin Hughes/Lineair/Still Pictures32

more and those in other regions get less.
According to a survey conducted by the FAO, the number ofpeople starving in the world in 2009 is estimated to exceed 1,020
million, up around 100 million on the previous year. We are in theworst age of serious starvation ; one in six people in the world isstarving.
On the other hand, people in developed countries are devouring
as much as they want in an unprecedented manner.
In Japan, which is the world s largest single importer ofagricultural products, people are eating much more meat and eggs
than before and continue to take in high-calorie high-fat meals
while worrying about obesity.
The situation is the same with seafood. For example, the quantityof shrimps imported into Japan has increased by 100 times comparedwith about 40 years ago and now the Japanese consume one-third of
all the shrimps harvested in the world. Because the demand cannot
be met with shrimps caught in the sea, mangrove trees in Southeast
Asia have been felled to create ponds to cultivate shrimps.
Moreover, Japan imports 58 million tons of food every year but
is said to waste one-third of that amount (about 19 million tons), an
amount that could feed about 55 million people.
While the gap is widening for the availability of food, decreasein crop yields due to abnormal weather and droughts caused by
global warming, and huge price hikes in food caused by the use of
cereals to produce bio-fuels, may further contribute to increasing
the number of people starving.

34

Depletion of Fossil Fuels

Oil, coal, and natural gas, which at present form our main energy
sources, are produced from living beings that existed on Earth long
before the emergence of mankind. The organic matter producedwith solar energy and stored in those prehistoric creatures has beenchemically altered by pressure and heat, and thus is called fossil
fuel.
Human beings made a tremendous leap in developing
civilization following the Industrial Revolution helped bymass consumption of these fossil fuels. In the 18th century, theinvention of the steam engine, which triggered the Industrial
Revolution, made coal the dominant fuel of the age. Subsequently,
at the end of the 19th century, internal-combustion engines (e.g.
gasoline-powered engine) were invented and automobiles werecommercialized. Then the airplane was invented. In the 20th
century, humans began to consume oil on a massive scale, andcoal- and oil-thermal power generation was widely adopted tocreate the foundation of our present society.
The United States is a typical example of this. The country
accounts for only four percent in world population, but its CO2
emission accounts for 30 percent of the worldwide total. It is also a
resource-rich country, having one of the highest fossil fuel reservesin the world. It may have been this abundant domestic supply of
resources, that enabled the country to build a social structure anddevelop a lifestyle that consumes a vast amount of energy.

Part 1 Today s Global Environment35

Of all the countries in the world, the United States in particularconsumes the largest amount of oil per day, accounting for about
a quarter of the world s daily oil consumption. Nearly 70 percentof this amount is used as fuel for trucks, buses, and automobiles.
The United States is the home of the automobile industry, and its
transportation network, which relies on roads, extends over thewhole nation. Life in the United States cannot be sustained in its
present form without this mass consumption of oil.
At present, however, all countries including the United States
are facing the need to move away from a fossil fuel-based society.
It is estimated that oil reserves will be exhausted in around 40
years, natural gas reserves in around 60 years, and coal reserves inaround 120 years. If we continue to rely on fossil fuels, we will not
be able to keep up with the increase in the world s energy demands
and we might have to face a serious depletion of our natural
resources in the not too distant future.
Use of renewable energy sources such as solar, thermal, wind,hydraulic, and geothermal power and biomass will not increase theconcentration of CO2 in the air and they are available as long as theSun continues to shine. But compared to fossil fuels, it is difﬁcult
to have a large amount of energy output from solar power and wind
power and they are unstable. How to ensure a stable supply fromthese renewable energy sources remains a challenge.
We will not be able to solve the energy problem only by shifting
to use cleaner energy, but we also need to change the way wecurrently consume energy. We need to review how we use energy
to support our lifestyles if we are to reduce the impact we have on
the global environment.

State of California, the United States/A large traffic jam on the Bay Bridge
The Bay Bridge, which connects San Francisco and Oakland, carries about 270,000 vehicles per day.

© James Sugar/Das Fotoarchiv./Still Pictures

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

37

Liaoning Province in China/China’s largest iron and steel works in Anshan
The production of iron and steel form the basis of a country’s strength and industrial might. In 1996, China
became the world’s top producer of iron and steel, outstripping Japan. The country has been increasing
production and now China accounts for about half of the world’s iron and steel production.
© PPS

Rapidly Increasing
Energy Consumption
While there are concerns about the depletion of fossil fuels such as
oil and natural gas, China and India with large land areas and huge
populations, are continuing their rapid economic growth in Asia.
Particularly China, blessed with coal and natural gas resources, israpidly increasing its consumption of resources and energy.
In China, the consumption of primary energy increased from
961 million tons (in oil equivalent) in 1997 to 1,863 million tons
in 2007, almost doubling in a decade. And accordingly, China s
CO2 emissions which were only around half the level of the UnitedStates in 2000, increased and China is now the largest emitter ofCO2, outstripping the United States in 2007.
In China, the industrial sector accounts for 70 percent of thecountry s total energy consumption. China has been soliciting
foreign companies to operate in the country by providing
cheap labor and land, and with these measures it has developed
into a world factory. The country has thus been expanding its
industrial production through the mass consumption of energy. When
seen from a different viewpoint, it could be said that Japan and othercountries who import cheap goods from China are letting China emit
CO2 on their behalf for the energy used for their production.
Economic growth driven by industrialization has raised theliving standards of the people of China.
In 1980, there were 1.87 million vehicles in China and in 2005 that
number increased 18-fold to 32 million vehicles and will continue to40

increase. The use of household electrical goods has been also expanding:In urban areas, there were only around 30 air conditioner units per 100
households in 2000, but this increased to 80 units in 2005 and the demandfor electricity in the summer months has been rapidly increasing.
Present China looks to be in a similar position as Japan was during
its high economic growth period from the 1950s to 1970s. In pursuingeconomic growth, China is following the same path as that taken by thedeveloped countries in the past, namely a resource-wasting inefﬁcient
production and consumption style. Although as such, developed
countries cannot force China to move in step with them in tackling theissues concerning depletion of resources and global warming.
However, if countries continue with their mass consumption offossil fuels for economic growth as they have done in the past, lifeon Earth will not be sustainable. At present, per-capita CO2 emissionin China is less than about one-fifth the level of the United States
and about half the level of Japan. If China and India with their huge
populations, choose to continue their energy-hungry mass-production
and mass-consumption lifestyles, our fossil fuel reserves will soon be
depleted and we will ﬁnd ourselves in a global environment that isdamaged and unable to recover from global warming and pollution.
The Asian region, which has seen a remarkable economic growth
in recent years, has become the world s largest emitter of CO2 andholds the key to the success of future anti-global warming measures.
On the other hand, the developed countries must fundamentally
review their past resource-wasting, mass-producing, and massconsuming habits and own the responsibility to shift to sustainableproduction and consumption. On that premise, developed countries,
countries that are now entering a period of economic growth, andcountries that will develop in the future must cooperate in solving
these common problems faced by the whole of mankind.

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

41

Record-Breaking Droughts
Hit Grain-Producing Regions
Global warming does not simply mean higher average temperatures
on Earth. It also brings with it a range of climate changes. In
particular, the greatest concern is the widening gap in the levelof precipitation among different regions of the world. In regions
where the rainfall is already low, precipitation is further decreasing,causing droughts and desertiﬁcation.
Australia is an agricultural country, and agricultural exports
account for nearly 25 percent of its total export value and it is
the third largest wheat exporter following the United States andCanada. Japan imports a wide range of foods from Australia,
including wheat, barley, rapeseed oil, and beef.
The annual precipitation in the country had been about a quarterof that of Japan, but since the latter half of the 1990s that amountdecreased. Then in 2002, the country suffered a severe drought
and as a result, cereal production dropped to almost half the usual
annual amount.
Since then Australia has continued to suffer from water
shortages. In 2006, it was hit by a once-in-a-thousand-years
drought and in 2007 water levels in the Murray-Darling Riverrunning through the southeastern part of the country dropped,
and the basin was hit by an unprecedentedly severe drought.
The Australian government implemented measures to support
farmers, but many of them lost the source of their income and wentbankrupt: some even committed suicide. This issue posed a serious
State of Queensland, Australia/Marshlands crack with the drought
In the Murray-Darling basin area, which accounts for 41 percent of the country’s agricultural production,yields sharply decreased because of the serious drought. In the State of Queensland where people aresuffering from a serious water shortage, the government is regulating water consumption.
© Biosphoto / Mafart-Renodier Alain/BIOSphoto/Still Pictures42

social problem.
Moreover, the fall in the production of wheat in Australia
caused a rise in international wheat prices.
It is predicted that Australia will continue to suffer fromdecreases in the level of precipitation. In February 2009, a series ofmountain ﬁres broke out and devastated forests over a wide area inthe dry southeastern part of the country, with more than 200 people
losing their properties and wildlife habitats destroyed. The fires
were the worst the country had experienced.
Global warming has brought radical changes to the weather
patterns that people have adapted to over many years.
The heat waves that hit Europe in 2003 killed 35,000 people
and caused 15 billion dollars worth of damage to local agriculture.
Subsequently in 2006 the region was again hit by heat waves, andin 2007 the southeastern part of Europe and the Mediterranean
region suffered abnormally high summer temperatures. As in
Australia, precipitation levels also dropped in Central Asia andAfrica, and in these regions desertiﬁcation is expanding following
droughts.
Against these abnormal weather patterns, conventional disaster
control infrastructures and systems tend to be ineffective incontrolling large-scale natural disasters. We cannot be ignorant
about abnormal weather patterns and natural disasters as they posea threat to all of us at any time.

44

Rapid Increase of“Climate Refugees” inDeveloping Countries
Due to climate change, regions which had large precipitationlevels are receiving even larger amounts of rainfall, and cyclones(typhoons) and hurricanes tend to be larger in size. As many ofyou still remember, in 2005 a massive hurricane named Katrina hit
New Orleans in the United States, devastating the city.
The mega-deltas of Asia, such as those located in the furthest
downstream areas of the Ganges and Mekong, are particularly
vulnerable to damage by heavy rains and large cyclones. For
example, Bangladesh which is affected by the Asian monsoon has
90 percent of its land area in the delta, and its people have been
engaged in farming that follows the natural cycle of seasons, withfloods in the rainy season helping to fertilize the land. In recent
years, however, damage from floods has become so severe thatpeople s livelihood and their lives themselves are threatened.
In 1998, Bangladesh was hit by the so called worst ever ﬂood in
the country s history. Just looking at the eight years from 1990 to
1998, the country was hit by three storms, four ﬂoods, one tsunami
and two cyclones, with more than 400,000 people killed and morethan 42 million suffering. Again in November 2007, a cyclone
hit the country bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and high tides.
More than 5,000 people died and at least 900,000 people lost theirhomes.
It is thought to be climate change caused by global warmingthat is making the ﬂoods more serious and long lasting.

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

45

In Bangladesh, about 80 percent of the population live in rural
areas and are engaged in small-scale farming. Floods do not kill as
many people as cyclones do, but they deprive farmers of almost allof their agricultural products, livestock, houses, and other property,
forcing them to sell their land to survive. These people who havelost the very means of living become disaster refugees and moveto urban areas to find jobs. In the capital Dacca, the population
increased from 6.48 million in 1991 to 9.91 million over the
10 years to 2001. At present, it is estimated that the municipal
population exceeds 15 million.
In Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, and other countries in sub-SaharanAfrica, people have been suffering serious famines brought onby droughts caused by climate change, and 10 million or more
people have become refugees in search of food. In the Philippines,
ﬂoods began to hit the country more often than before as a resultof deforestation, and more than four million people have moved tohigher land to escape ﬂood damage.
As mentioned here, the severity of natural disasters has thusincreased the number of people who are forced to leave their farms
and homeland and become refugees, particularly in the southerncountries of the North-South divide.

Dacca, Bangladesh/Flooded capital of Bangladesh
Two-thirds of the nation was flooded in a serious flood that hit the country in July 2004, and the city ofDacca, one of the most densely populated cities in the world, was also flooded. Natural disasters including
floods are causing streams of people to flow into Dacca to escape poverty, and as a result, many of them
are living in terrible conditions.
© Trygve Bolstad/Lineair/Still Pictures

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

47

Damaging Nature Means
Damaging Ourselves
─What is Our Choice

The phenomena we have described here seem to take placerandomly in various places around the world, but they are
actually interrelated.
Mankind forms a part of the global environment, and can besaid to be a part of nature, thus meaning that damaging natureis equivalent to damaging ourselves. However, among thediverse living beings on Earth, only humans have continuously
increased in number while wreaking great changes on theenvironment at the cost of other living beings. Even worse,
we have been pursuing economic growth without recognizing
what kind of effect our activities have, and as a result haveseriously damaged the balance of the natural environment andits ecosystems, and brought about global warming.
As described in the preceding sections, global warming
is interrelated with various problems that are emerging inindividual countries and/or occurring extending beyond nationalboundaries, such as those related to energy, global warming,
distribution of food and water resources, destruction of thenatural environment and loss of biodiversity, the economic gap
between urban and rural areas, demographic movement, andpoverty. If one of them becomes worse, that will inﬂuence otherproblems to become worse, making it even more difficult to48

solve them. These problems thus form a vicious circle and a socalled negative chain. Under these circumstances, the present
global environment is moving in an unprecedentedly dangerous
direction.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, developed
countries have achieved economic growth at great cost to
the Earth. At present, emerging economies with their large
populations are following the same path. Unless we stop
imposing further heavy burden on Earth, cease pursuing shortterm beneﬁts, cut the negative chain of misfortune, and choose
to lead a new and fulfilling lifestyle that is in harmony withnature, mankind will not have a bright future.
As a ﬁrst step, we must put our efforts into conﬁrming what
the present situation is and consider what each of us can do to
cut the negative chain that will lead to catastrophe, and then let
us each move in the direction of taking appropriate actions.

Part 1 Today s Global Environment

49

Part 2

Conditions for
SurvivalChapter 1

The Largest Crisis
Ever Faced by
Mankind─ Global Environmental Problems

52

The Industrial Revolution took place in Europe in the 18thand 19th centuries and economic development spread
across the world, led by industry. Since then mankind has
pursued a life blessed materially through developments
in science and technology and the market economy. But
on the other hand, as a result of our consumption of fossil
fuels on a massive scale, emissions of CO2, which is agreenhouse gas, have rapidly increased. Mankind has todate prioritized economic development, and as such, it
has to be said, has been ignorant about what impact its
activities would have on nature, which provides the basis
for its survival. Although scientists began warning thatnature, the foundation for the survival of mankind, wasalready being damaged at the end of the 20th century,
mankind continued to prioritize economic development,
and as a result mankind is now facing a crisis caused by
global environmental problems.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

53

20th century
21st century

1 Departure from “The Limits to Growth”(100 million people)

The book The Limits to Growth was commissioned by the Clubof Rome and published in 1972. This book, authored by Dennis L.
Meadows(1) of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and others,
raised questions about the sustainability of the Earth and attracted
much public attention. In the book, Meadows and others warned that
if the world population and industrial production activities continue toincrease, resources will be depleted, the environment will deteriorate,
and mankind will reach the limits of growth within 100 years.
Subsequently in 1987, the World Commission on Environmentand Development ( the Brundtland (2) Commission ) , which wasestablished within the United Nations, published a report titled100
9.1 billion in 2050

90

(estimate)

80

70
6.8 billion in 2009

Figure 1 Trend in World Population (Estimates)

60

6 billion in 199750

5 billion in 1987

(100 million people)

40

40

30

30
2.5 billion in 1950

20

20

Birth of humankind(Homo sapiens)

over one hundred
thousand years ago

Start of farming andstockbreeding

8000

Development ofancient civilizations

3000

Source: Based on the website of the United Nations Population Fund (http://www.unfpa.or.jp/p_graph.html)

54

Start of the Industrial
Revolution

The Plague strikes Europe

BC ← 0 → AD

500

1000

1500

2000
( Year )Part 2 Conditions for Survival

55

Our Common Future . In this report, the Commission proposed theconcept of sustainable development as development that meetsthe needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs. This concept implies that
it is necessary for mankind to continue to have economic growth
to solve the poverty problem but that growth should be achieved,
unlike in the past, in a sustainable manner. The concept thenspread internationally through the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, theWorld Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg

in 2002, and other international conferences.
When we look at the transition of world population fromseveral hundred thousand years ago, we can see that the increasesince the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Fig. 1) has been
exponential. It continued to increase year by year even after the
publication of The Limits to Growth, and has increased by aboutnearly 1.8 times over the 35 years from 1970. Energy and foodconsumption have also been on the rise at a rate exceeding the
growth rate of the population (Fig. 2 and Table 1).
The ecological footprint,(3) one of the indicators of the global

Figure 2/Table 1 Trends in World Population, Supply of Primary Energy andConsumption of Cereals (1970 onwards)

Figure 3 Trends in the Ecological Footprint of Humankind(%)

250 ［growth rate（1970 as 100）］

Supply of primary energy

200

Consumptionof cereals

150

Population

100

The ecological footprint is an indicator that shows
how much we rely on the natural environment inleading our lives. It is a measure of human demand
expressed as the area of biologically productive landand sea needed to supply the required resources
and to absorb CO2 released by burning fossil fuels.

Population
Supply ofprimaryenergy

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005 (Year)

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

1 million people

3,686

4,061

4,438

4,846

5,290

5,713

6,115

6,512

Average annual
growth rate

─

2.0%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

1.5%

1.4%

1.3%

1 million toe*

4,970

5,771

6,630

7,153

8,095

8,538

9,263

10,555

Average annual
growth rate
Per-capita
consumption

─

3.0%

2.8%

1.5%

2.5%

1.1%

1.6%

2.6%

1.35

1.42

1.49

1.48

1.53

1.49

1.51

1.62

1 million tons

1,108

1,212

1,440

1,553

1,707

1,739

1,860

2,021

─

1.8%

3.5%

1.5%

1.9%

0.4%

1.3%

1.7%

0.30

0.30

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.30

0.30

0.31

(toe/person)

annualConsumption Average
growth rateof cereals
Per-capita
consumption(tons/person)

World bio capacity(1.0 = Limit to sustainable level )

50
0

1.2

1.0
0.8

0.6

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005
(Year)

Source: Based on Living Planet Report 2006, WWF＊toe: ton of oil equivalent

Source: Based on World Population Prospectus, UN, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 anddata on the demand, production and term-end inventory rates of cereals prepared by the Japanese Ministryof Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Notes: ─Cereals include rice, maize, wheat and barley. ─The average annual growth rate means theaverage annual growth rate over the previous ﬁve years (e.g.: the ﬁve years from 1970 to 1975 for the
average annual growth rate for 1975).

56

Part 2 Conditions for Survival57

In this book, we would like to try to bring insight to what we should
do now, when the global environment is being irrevocably damaged

Extremely

Figure 4 The Environmental Doomsday Clock Moves On
ed
ern
nc
co

Bare
ly
co

（N=643）（N=776）（N=706）

Fair
ly
co

（N=1,054）

d
rne
ce
on

ned
er
nc

-11minutes

Sligh
tly
c

58

are increasing could learn from the experience of the developed
countries in solving related problems.
The Asahi Glass Foundation conducts an annual survey (5)on the sense of crisis felt by respondents for the survival of
humankind in the global environment that continues to deteriorate,
targeting experts throughout the world. The Foundation has beenmonitoring their responses over time as indicated by the handson the Environmental Doomsday Clock it created (Fig. 4). In theﬁrst survey held in 1992, the clock showed 49 minutes past seven,and through the years the clock has advanced. In 2009, the clock
indicated 22 minutes past nine. This implies that the experts are
extremely concerned about the accelerating deterioration of the
global environment. If we are to solve the world s environmental
problems, not only experts but also ordinary people must enhancetheir understanding of the present global environmental situationand start to set themselves in concrete actions.

ed
ern
nc

environmental impact of human socioeconomic activities, showsthat by the middle of the 1980s mankind had already consumed
resources at a pace faster than the Earth s ecological capacity canregenerate. The latest data (2005) also indicates that the resources
we are consuming and the amount of waste we are generating from
our activities have exceeded the level that the Earth can provide andcan absorb in a sustainable manner by nearly 30 percent (Fig. 3).
The underlying factors that lie at the root of the global
environmental problem are the rapid increase in populationand economic development. The issue of population control isfundamentally related to religions and social systems of individual
societies and cannot be discussed simplistically. However, inconsidering global environmental problems, it is important torecognize that problems occurring on a global scale, including
those related to food, water shortages, resources and energy, global
warming, and loss of biodiversity, are closely connected to the
problem of population increase.
Mr. Lester R. Brown,(4) who won the Blue Planet Prize in 1994,
insists on the need for population control in solving problems
related to poverty, the environment, and resources. Increases in
population and poverty are interrelated, and Mr. Brown says it isvital to implement measures to stabilize the world s population if
we are to overcome poverty.
In the history of the developed countries, the spread ofeducation and improvements in the status of women have proved
to be important factors in stabilizing population growth. These
factors are indeed essential for people to get out of poverty. In
the developed countries, as economic situations have improved,
education has been promoted and the status of women has been
improved. In this regard, developing countries where populations-11minutes（N=746）

Source: The Asahi Glass Foundation

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

59

60

2 Human Activities Facing Limits(1) Urbanization Sets Us Apart from Nature
People Concentrate in cities

Historically, with increased population, economic activities
increased, and cities were built and grew in size with the progressof industrialization. The expansion of cities is expected to continue
in the future, and in 2050 the urban population,(6) which currently
exceeds 50 percent of the world s population, will account for 70
percent of the total (Fig. 5).

Figure 5 Urban Populations (Past Data and Forecasts)
(%)

7,000
Urban population ( million people )by human activities brought about by past economic development.
The first chapter is titled Largest Crisis Ever Faced by
Mankind, and in its second section, Human Activities Facing
Limits, we discuss those global scale crisis we can recognize in ourdaily lives, such as the present increase in the world s population,
population concentrations in urban areas, loss of nature following
industrialization, and excessive consumption and shortages insupplies of energy, water, and food resources. In the third section,
Crisis Creeping in, we will address problems related to global
warming and loss of biodiversity, which are not easy to recognize
in our daily lives but their inﬂuence would be extensive and serious.
In this section, we emphasize that these problems are interrelated
and once their impacts become significant, that will endanger thesurvival of mankind.
In the second chapter, A Vision for the 21st Century, we
propose to build a society based on the understanding of thecurrent global environmental crisis described in chapter 1, in whichhuman activities are conducted in harmony with the cycle of naturein order for mankind to survive sustainably. In this book we referto this society as a solar energy-based society. This proposal has
its basis in the belief that human beings are nature s children andshould support and live in concord with all other living beings
within the constraints of nature.
In the third chapter, Future Society Created by Overcoming
Crises, we propose measures to achieve our vision of the society
we describe in the second chapter. As an example of a resource,
one that can be regenerated within the natural mechanism, and ofenergy, use of a solar energy is proposed.
Finally, in the last chapter we reconﬁrm the messages we wantto convey throughout this book and draw some conclusions.

80
Latin America andthe Caribbean

6,000
5,000
4,000

Oceania60

North America
Percentage ofurban population（%）

70

50
EuropeAfrica

3,000

40
30

2,000
Asia

1,000

20
10

0
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mid-range estimates(Year)＊Deﬁnition of urban city is based on each country s criteria.

Source: Based on World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2007 Revision, United Nations

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

61

Cities Face Limits

Cities have played an important role in economic development
because they are highly functional and efﬁcient, but they are now
coming up against limits in many areas.
When population concentration in cities becomes excessive
over a short period, people suffer from shortages of employment
opportunities and places to live, and cities themselves sufferfrom the need to maintain a good infrastructure. As a result,several problems emerge: traffic jams, deterioration of the living
environment, increased poverty, environmental pollution, and anincrease in crime. Air and water pollution will emerge as industrial
facilities and motor traffic increases. In developing countries
in particular, as companies cannot afford to bear the cost ofenvironmental measures, environmental pollution worsens.
Cities are places where mass consumption of resources andenergy and mass disposal of waste take place repeatedly, which
could become a factor limiting urban growth. For example,
domestic and industrial water supplies used in a city usually comefrom the basin in which it is located, and if the city gets its watersupply in a way that has a bad effect on the local water circulation,
this might prevent it from providing a stable water supply to its
citizens. With excessive generation of waste, the waste remaining
after the intermediate disposal process is sent to landfills, but thelimited capacity of ﬁnal landﬁll sites is becoming a problem. These
problems are common to all mega-cities that are expanding under
economic growth.
Cities have been overcoming the constraints of nature by
replacing some of nature s functions with artifacts, but as describedabove, cities are at the same time vulnerable to the constraints
imposed by the environment, resources, and energy. Mankind

62

is thus confronting limits to growth not only because ofenvironmental problems such as global warming, but also becauseof environmental pollution and constraints imposed on resourcesby the expansion of urban activities.
People are estranged from nature

While urbanization makes people s lives more convenient, thenatural environment has changed greatly in many large cities
as a result of expansion, leading to a decrease in the number ofopportunities for people to come into contact with nature. As aresult, humans, who lived and grew up surrounded by nature in
the past are becoming more and more estranged from nature withthe expansion of cities, and it is getting more difﬁcult for them torecognize that they form a part of nature and are receiving many ofher blessings.
At present with about half of the world s population living inurban areas, that will mean that about half of mankind is put in asituation where they do not have sufficient contact with nature.
Shouldn t this be considered a serious crisis? Because, the vision tosense the importance of the value of nature will only come throughcontinuous regular contact with the natural world, and where there
is no nature around, the feeling that mankind is a part of naturecannot be nurtured and the will to acknowledge the importance of
nature will gradually fade.
International initiatives for creating sustainable cities

In order to create a city where people come in contact with nature
regularly, it is necessary to take a genuine thoughtful considerationof nature and transform our cities so that they harmonize withnature by overcoming problems such as environmental pollution

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

63

(2) Depletion of Energy Resources
Rising fossil fuel consumption

The Industrial Revolution which began in the 18th century brought
about economic growth. This growth, led by industrial production,
would not have been achieved without the use of energy resources
such as coal, oil, and natural gas that existed in the natural world.
The world s usage of primary energy has been on a continuous
upward trend along with economic growth, and has almost tripled
in the past 40 years (Fig. 6).
There are, however, substantial regional differences in thegrowth rates of this energy supply. While the rates have been on
the decline in developed regions (OECD member states) that haveachieved energy savings through industrial structure changes andimprovements in efficiency of energy consuming machineries,
the growth rates are on the rise in developing regions ( non-64

OECD member states), which still need to establish economic
infrastructures and grow their economies. In the Asia-Pacificregion, in particular, there has been a substantial increase in energy
usage.
Increasing energy consumption in developing regions

Increased energy usage in developing regions is largely attributable
to their rapid economic growth. As shown in figure 7, while
the world GDP growth rate has remained at around five percent
since 2003, developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region havebeen achieving remarkable economic growth. China and India inparticular have been showing a growth rate of around 10 percent,which coincides with the increase in the use of energy.
However, per-capita energy consumption is much smaller

Figure 6 Trends in World Supply of Primary Energy(1 million toe)(%)

12,00080

10,000
Supply of primary energy

and the limits of resources. Initiatives are being launched bycities all over the world to make them eco-friendly. International
activities are also underway, including those led by the United
Nations Human Settlements Programme ( UN-HABITAT ) , theInternational Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI),
and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Aiming
to promulgate the creation of sustainable cities, these initiatives
allow information on activities by local governments all over theworld to be shared, human resources to be developed, and technicalassistance to be provided. Moreover, the Asian Development
Bank and the World Bank are giving financial support to boost
investment in ways to improve the urban environment.

70

OECD (share:%)

8,000

60
Asia-Pacific

6,000

Middle East

2,000

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

40

Former Soviet Union
Europe30

Latin America

20

North America

10

4,000

0

50

Africa

1995

2000

2005

0

(Year)

Source: Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

65

in the developing regions as opposed to the developed regions(Fig. 8). If developing countries are to aim to follow the same
economic growth path as that of the developed countries, there will
be a major concern in that worldwide energy consumption will
eventually swell to a level several times that of present.

Figure 8 Comparison of Per-Capita Energy Consumption in Major Regions

12
China

10

World total

4

United States
EU

2

Japan

2002

2003

46

Middle East and North Africa

68

Non-OECD Europe

69
133

OECD Europe
Japan, South Korea, Australia and
New Zealand
North America and Mexico

142
180
281
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Per-capita energy consumption (GJ/person)

GJ: gigajoule (equal to 10 9 joule)
Source: Based on World Energy Assessment 2004 overview, UNDP, 2004

Billion barrels
35

2004

2005

2006
(Year)

Source: Based on World Economic Outlook Database for April 2007, IMF

NGL＊

30
Annual production

GDP growth rate (%)

6

2001

28

Former USSR

India
8

2000

25

China

Figure 9 Crude Oil and Liqueﬁed Gas Production (Past Data and Forecasts)

Figure 7 Trends in Economic Growth Rates

0

25

Asia

Latin America and Caribbean

Toward a sustainable use of energy resources

The expansion in energy consumption centered on the use of fossil
fuels will lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions, which willin turn cause further global warming. This could also accelerate
the depletion of resources whose reserves are limited. According
to the past production of crude oil and liqueﬁed gas and forecasts,
production will reach a peak in around 2010 and then begin to
decline (Fig. 9).

Sub-Saharan Africa

25

Deepwater oil

保留20

Middle East

Others10

Heavy oiland others

Russia

5
0

Polar

確認中

15

USA

European countries

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
( Year )＊NGL: Natural Gas Liquid

Source: Based on Oil and Gas Liquids 2004 Scenario, Hubbert Peak of Oil Production website（http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Campbell/images/2004Scenario.jpg）

66Part 2 Conditions for Survival

67

It is predicted that as developing countries achieve more
growth, they will use more resources. But, developed countries
cannot blame the developing countries for this. In the past, thosesame developed countries consumed vast amounts of energy andemitted high levels of CO2 to achieve their growth, and developing
countries also have the right to achieve growth in the same manner.
Accordingly, the preface to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, states, Recognizing that all
countries, especially developing countries, need access to resources
required to achieve sustainable social and economic development… their energy consumption will need to grow….
Developing regions naturally have the right to achieve
economic growth, but if the world continues to expand its use offossil fuels as in the past, the depletion of resources will accelerate
and global warming will pose an even larger threat.
In order for the world to achieve a sustainable use of resourcesand energy while allowing the growth of developing regions, it isessential that the developed regions save significant amounts ofenergy and shift from exhaustible energy sources such as fossil fuels
to renewable energy. Developing countries are also required to stop
pursing the mass-consumption lifestyles of the already developed
regions and instead proactively introduce technologies and systems
that will save resources and energy with a view to building a resourceand energy-recycling society where people can live in harmony withnature. The developed regions are expected to give their support to thedeveloping regions for the technologies and capital required for theirsustainable growth, and this support is essential for the sustainable useof resources and energy on a global basis.

68

International initiatives to ensurea sustainable use of energy resources

International initiatives to solve energy problems include the ﬁrst
summit meeting in 1975 of the Group of Six (G6), comprising
the leading countries of the time, with their agenda to stabilize
the world economy after the ﬁrst oil crisis in 1973. At the summit
meeting, participating countries confirmed the need to secureenergy sources for economic growth and reduce dependence onenergy imports by saving energy and developing alternative energy
sources. After the 1980s, crude oil prices stabilized, but with theoutbreak of the Iraq War in 2003, prices again began to soar. To
deal with price hikes and also with the global warming problem,
energy security became an important issue at the subsequentsummit meetings.
Recently, at the meeting of the G8 + 3 (7) Energy Ministers
held prior to the 2008 G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit, Ministers
deemed the promotion of energy efﬁciency as one of the quickest
and most cost-effective ways to address energy security andclimate change while supporting economic growth and agreed to
implement the IEA s(8) recommendations for promoting energy
efﬁciency. Subsequently at the G8 Energy Ministers Meeting 2009,
the International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation( IPEEC ) was launched, which will create energy efficiency
indicators, collect information about best practice, and conduct
joint research on technologies for higher energy efﬁciency, thereby
helping member states implement voluntary measures to increase
their energy efﬁciency.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival69

(3) Sustainable and Fair Use of Water Resources
Limited water resources

It has been estimated that the total amount of water on Earth isaround 1.4 billion cubic kilometers. About 97 percent of it isseawater, and the remaining fresh water is stored mainly in the
Arctic and Antarctic regions in the form of ice and glaciers. The
amount of fresh water contained in groundwater, rivers, lakes,
and ponds accounts for about 0.8 percent of the total, and most of
this exists in the form of groundwater. The amount of fresh watercontained in rivers, lakes, and ponds accounts for only about 0.01
percent of the total water on Earth.
Overall annual global precipitation amounts to about 577,000
cubic kilometers, of which annual precipitation on land comesto about 119,000 cubic kilometers. Of this amount, about 74,000
cubic kilometers are lost by evapotranspiration, 43,000 cubic
kilometers stays as surface water, and the remaining around 2,000
cubic kilometers is stored as groundwater annually.
Water resources circulate over the land surface, air, underground,and oceans, and people make use of this water within the cycle. So, if
we use water resources in a way that preserves the natural circulation,these resources will not be depleted. In reality, however, humanactivities are exerting a serious inﬂuence on the water cycle, whichsometimes results in an uneven distribution of water resources.
For example, when forests are cut down for the purpose of landdevelopment, their contribution to the water cycle in protecting
watersheds and reducing evapotranspiration is seriously interrupted.
If these contributions are lost, flows in local rivers and groundwaterlevels will decrease, and may even have an impact on precipitationlevels. In cities, the fact that the land is covered by artiﬁcial structures70

causes heat to be retained, and this in turn causes a rise in temperatures.
This phenomenon, which is called the heat island phenomenon, rapidlychanges local precipitation patterns and can result in disasters such asurban ﬂoods. According to the IPCC s(9) Fourth Assessment Report, thewater cycle is affected globally by climate changes caused by global
warming, and this in turn is predicted to increase average precipitations
in tropical and high-latitude regions while decreasing them insemitropical and middle-latitude regions. Also, with these changes
in the water cycle, while the general intensity of precipitation(10) will
increase, inland areas will tend to have dry summers, which will
increase the risk of drought.
Unequal distribution of water resources

Water is vital to sustain our lives and for the production of food,but water resources (11) are distributed unevenly through various
regions of the world, depending upon factors that include climaticand geographical conditions. The water resources that countries
have differ signiﬁcantly by where they are located. For example,
Vietnam has 2,708 liters of water resources per square meter per
year, while Saudi Arabia has only 0.93 liters.
In addition to the uneven distribution of water resources
attributable to climatic and geographical conditions, there are alsosocial factors that prevent some countries from using their water
resources efficiently, including the lack of social infrastructureneeded to implement a water supply, and rapid increases in
population, resulting in a shortage of drinking water for someregions. For example, as figure 10 shows, the number of people
who have no access to drinking water is high in regions that
include sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, and South Asia.
It is estimated that the number of people who cannot obtain aPart 2 Conditions for Survival

71

sufﬁcient supply of water will increase rapidly from now on andin 2050, the number of people facing water shortages will be morethan ﬁve times that of 2005 (Fig. 11).

Figure 12 Forecasts on Global Water Demand (By Usage)㎦

Measured

3200

Forecast

Agriculturaluse

Worsening water shortages

The world s water consumption increased by about 2.7 times
over the forty-five years from 1950 to 1995 and it is predictedthat by 2025 consumption will further increase to about 1.4
times that of 1995. Of the total water consumption, 66 percent
is used for agriculture and the demand for agricultural water isseen not to decrease much for the period up to 2025 (Fig. 12).
Water consumption in Asia is larger than in other regions and will
increase signiﬁcantly in the future (Fig. 13).

millionpeople

400

1990
2004

North Africa
Developed
countries
Oceania

CIS

West Asia＊

Latin America andthe Caribbean

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Sub-SaharanAfricaEast Asia

Source: Based on data from the website of the
Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply& Sanitation, WHO & UNICEF ( http://www.
wssinfo.org/en/231-wat-intro.html.Feb. 2007)

72

0

Water
stress
2005 2025 2050

( Year )Water stress: less than 1,700 m3/person/year
Water scarcity: less than 1,000 m3/person/year
Source: Based on World Development
Indicators 2007, World Bank

Reservoirs
1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

( Year )Source: Based on World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century, UNESCO

Measured

Forecast

2800

Water scarcity

1900

Use in cities

400

㎦

1

Industrial use

800

3200

2

＊CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States(12 countries from former Soviet Union)

1200

6

3

100

1600

Figure 13 Forecasts on Global Water Demand (By Region)

4

200

2000

Billionpeople5300

0Figure 11 Population Facing
Water Shortages

2400

0

Global water resource use

Figure 10 Regional Distribution ofPopulation Who Have No
Access to Drinking Water(1990 and 2004)

Global water resource use

2800

2400

Asia

2000
1600
1200

Africa800

North
America
European countries

400
0

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

South America
Australia and2020 Oceania( Year )Source: Based on World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century, UNESCO

Part 2 Conditions for Survival73

While the water demand is increasing, there are some regions
where people are now suffering from problems such as decline ingroundwater levels and depletion of groundwater due to excessive
extraction. Moreover, due to an increase in the demand for
agricultural water, industrial water, and water for use in cities, thestream cease phenomenon is often observed in China s Yellow
River and the Colorado River in the US, and this phenomenon
is exerting a significant influence on ecosystems such as aquaticplants and animals including ﬁsh.
It is estimated that 1,900 tons of agricultural water is necessary
to produce one ton of cereal, thus in countries suffering a shortageof agricultural water, food cereals cannot be produced in amounts
necessary to meet domestic demand and they are forced toimport to compensate for the shortage. In such a case, it could beconsidered that the country is securing water resources throughfood cereal import. This is one of the important factors that needs
to be taken into account when considering how to secure enoughwater resources in the future.
Water quality

It is important not only to consider the quantity of water resources,
but also the quality. In the past in many countries, water resourceswere polluted by agricultural pesticides as well as by unprocessed
wastewater from factories and households, causing damage to
people s health. In some developing countries that achieved rapid
economic growth, there were regions where the number of people
suffering from cancer was significantly high, and its cause wasthought to be water pollution.(12)
Various chemicals are involved in the production processes
and in products, and these can spread into the public water supply

74

through wastewater expelled from factories, waste products, andrunoff from farmland that has been sprayed with agricultural
pesticides. Moreover, if people eat fish caught in contaminatedwaters, some chemicals contained in the fish can accumulate in
the human body, exposing people to the risk of long-term healthdamage.
International initiatives for a sustainable
use of water resources

The World Water Forum, which is organized by the World Water
Council, represents one of the major international initiatives
taken by the international community on water issues. The World
Water Council (WWC) was established in 1996 by governments,
international organizations, experts, companies, and NGOs as aninternational think tank for water issues and is based in France.
At the initiative of the WWC, the World Water Forum was set up
as a place where various people who are involved in water issues
and policies can gather and discuss the issues in their respective
capacities. The first World Water Forum was held in Marrakech
in Morocco in 1997. At the second World Water Forum held in
the Hague in the Netherlands in 2000, participants proposed The
World Water Vision for the 21st Century with a view to increasing
people s awareness of risks related to water across the globe.
This vision lists the following issues as important challenges
to be met regarding water; controlling expansion of irrigatedagriculture, raising water productivity, increasing water
storage, reformation of water resource management methods,
strengthening international cooperation in catchment basin
areas, evaluating the functions of ecosystems, and supporting
technological innovation.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival75

(4) Sustainability and Fairness in Securing Food
Uneven production of food and the need for a fair food distribution

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization( FAO ) , about 915 million people were in a state of chronicmalnutrition in 2008 and a total of 18 million people are said tohave died annually due to diseases brought on by starvation. (13)The calorie supply per-capita (Fig. 14) is the lowest in sub-SaharanAfrica, followed by South Asia. The calorie supply in these regions
is only about two-thirds of high income states, which demonstrates
that there are substantial regional gaps in terms of food supply.
The FAO estimates that the world s total cereal production
came to about 2.24 billion tons in 2005. Kawashima (2008)(14) also
calculates that if this volume of cereals were equally distributed

Figure 14 Calorie Supply Per-Capita
3478
3135

3077

3000

2953

2833

2500

2337

2319

Sub-SaharanAfrica3500

South Asia

kilo calories/day

2000

76

East Asia andPaciﬁcLatin America andthe Caribbean

Middle East and North
African countries

Source: Based on FAOSTATEurope andCentral Asia

High-income
countries0

among the 6.5 billion people in the world, each person would
receive about 350 kilograms of cereals annually. If these cereals
were supposed to be all rice, the calorie supply per-capita would
amount to 2,390 kilocalories per day. Although this is less than thepresent calorie supply per-capita in Japan of 2,750 kilocalories,
in reality, as people eat other foodstuffs in addition to cereals,
the present world s cereal production, which could supply every
person on the globe with an average of 350 kilograms, would thus
seem to be enough to feed all people in the world. There would be
no food shortage if the world s food production were distributed
fairly across the world. In fact, however, there are regions of theworld where people are suffering malnutrition because food is
not produced or secured evenly due to regional socioeconomic
and natural conditions. Factors that cause these disparities include
decreases in agricultural productivity due to natural disasters andregional conﬂicts, increases in population that exceed the pace ofimprovement in agricultural productivity, and poverty.
According to the FAO, the proportion of the world s population
suffering from malnutrition was decreasing after the 1970s.
However it began to increase again from the middle of the 1990s
and reached about 915 million in 2008. In 1996, the World Food
Summit was held in Rome, and there a target was set to halve
the number of people suffering from malnutrition by 2015.
Nonetheless, the population continued to increase, and at the World
Food Summit held in 2002, the prospect of achieving the set targetof 1996 was seen to be difﬁcult. On top of this, due to increases
in population and changes in eating habits (e.g., in the developing
countries, the demand for meat is increasing ) , the demand on
cereals as livestock feed is expected to double from the present
level by 2020. To meet this increase in demand, cereal production

Part 2 Conditions for Survival77

On the future food supply and demand, the FAO s view on cereals
describes an increase in developing countries, in particular in East

Asia and South Asia (Fig. 15). The cereals self-sufficiency rate
per country is also predicted to rise in industrialized countries andcountries in transition,(15) and will increase to 120 percent or higher
by 2030 (Fig. 16). On the other hand, the cereals self-sufﬁciency
rate in the developing countries will generally decrease, and in the
Middle East and North Africa in particular the rate will fall below
60 percent by 2030.
As for the future balance between food supply and demand,world food production will increase due to increases in the yield
per area and the development of new farmlands, and eventually
could result in sufficient food supply to meet the demand of theworld as a whole. Kawashima (2008) estimates that in order tomeet world food demand in 2050, the yield per hectare, whichwas 3.3 tons in 2005, needs to be increased to 4.0 tons by 2050.

Figure 15 Prospects for Cereal Demand by Region

Figure 16 Prospects on Cereals Self-Sufﬁciency Rate by Region

must also be substantially increased, and it is obvious that new
farmland must be developed even in areas with low-quality soil
and insufﬁcient rainfall and in outlying regions.
At the same time, in emerging economies such as China, Brazil,
and India, two extreme situations are observed: while the poorest
people are suffering from malnutrition, the rich are confronted withhealth problems such as obesity. Moreover, the volume of waste
nutrients is rising across the globe: in the world food markets,
some foodstuffs are discarded to maintain price levels, and surplus
food is sold as livestock feed.
Future food supply and demand

％

1000
500
0

Countries in Transition
Industrialized countries

1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01

2030

2050

( Year )20
0Latin America
and theCaribbean

Sub-SaharanAfricaEast Asia

South Asia

60
40South Asia

1500

Middle East andNorth Africancountries

Middle East andNorth Africancountries

East Asia

80

Sub-SaharanAfrica

2000

120
100

Countries inTransition

Latin America andthe Caribbean

140

1969/71
1999/01
2030
2050

2500

Developing countries: Sub-Saharan Africa,
Latin America and the Caribbean

160

Industrializedcountries

3000

Developing countries

3500

Cereals self-sufﬁciency rate

Million tons

Developing countries

78

Note: Countries in Transition refer to East European countries and former Soviet Union countries that areshifting to a market economy.

Note: Countries in Transition refer to East European countries and former Soviet Union countries that areshifting to a market economy.

Source: Based on World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 - Interim Report, FAO

Source: Based on World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 - Interim Report, FAO

Part 2 Conditions for Survival79Mr. Kawashima also believes that it is possible to increase theworld average yield by expanding the use of high-yield species,
chemical fertilizers and by increased irrigation, and explains that
promulgation of these measures will be important and highly
effective in regions that currently can only achieve low yields per
area.
According to the FAO, there is still enough room to develop
farmland in an environmentally conscious manner. For example, itis estimated that in sub-Saharan Africa, at least 700 million hectaresof new farmland can be developed.(16) With the approach describedabove, it is possible to increase the food supply to meet the future
food demand, but in reality, the excessive use of chemical fertilizers
and agricultural pesticides will degrade the quality of the soil, andclimate change will also badly affect food production.
Impact of climate change on food production

Climate change is predicted to have a great impact on world foodproduction and as a result the world food supply situation will
become very tight. Some have estimated that in the developing
countries, the total agricultural production capacity will decreaseby between nine and 21 percent due to global warming.(17)
Africa in particular is vulnerable to climate change, andagricultural production in the region will decrease by between 15
and 30 percent due to global warming. As a result, the region will
depend more on imports.(18)
In middle- and high-latitude regions, productivity might
improve for some cereals if the world average temperature rise isaround 1 to 2 degrees, but if the average temperature rises further,agricultural productivity is predicted to be lowered as a whole.(19)80

Impact of food production on the environment

Agriculture is an industry that basically cannot be separated fromland, and to obtain farmland the natural environment and theecosystems will have to be changed, meaning that this is one of thehuman activities that places a heavy burden on nature.
From the viewpoint of environmental protection, agriculture poses
the following problems: destruction of ecosystems due to excessive
land development; contamination of soil and pollution of local
river water by agricultural pesticides; movement of invisible water
resources as a result of importing and exporting agricultural products;
impact on other crops with the introduction of genetically modified
crops; the diffusion of genes due to unintended genetic recombination.
Securing water and farmland for food production

Irrigation is very effective in producing food efficiently, but
only around 17 percent of the world s total farmland is irrigated.
Irrigated farmland is responsible for producing one-third or moreof the world s food. In the developing countries, about 40 percentof the available water resources are used for irrigation, but atleast half of the amount is lost due to leakage and other losses in
irrigation channels.(20) In order to improve agricultural productivity
in these countries, it is therefore essential to encourage the effective
use of irrigation water.
Central and South America and Southeast Asia, farmland
can be developed by felling rainforests to increase the yield on ashort-term basis, but there are concerns that by losing the tropicalrainforests, soil runoff will increase and nutrients in the soil
will be affected, which may eventually result in long-term soil
deterioration. Moreover, felling too many forests to create farmland
will badly affect local biodiversity, as discussed later.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

81

International initiatives for a sustainable food supply

Global efforts in dealing with issues regarding food have been
implemented with the focus on measures that include providing
support to developing countries facing the problem of unstable
food supplies, stabilizing the agricultural market and trade, andpromoting world food production.
To support developing countries facing unstable supplies offood, participants in the World Food Summit held in Rome in1996 issued the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and theWorld Food Summit Plan of Action, aiming to halve the numberof people suffering from malnutrition in the world by 2015, which
totaled about 800 million people at that time. Nonetheless, thenumbers continued to rise even after the end of the 1996 Summit,
and at the World Food Summit held subsequently in 2002,
participants admitted that it would be difﬁcult to attain the target
set at the 1996 Summit and conﬁrmed the necessity of enhancing
international cooperation to eliminate starvation. Later at a highlevel meeting held in June 2008, another declaration was issued
after reconﬁrming support on the Rome Declaration and its Plan of
Action as well as the Millennium Development Goals(21) (MDGs).
Specifically, it declared that not only immediate and short-term
measures, but also medium- to long-term measures that would
include providing support to measures against climate change forthe present food system and encouraging the production and use of
bio-fuels while ensuring food security should be taken. Moreover,the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit held in July 2008 resulted in the
G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit Leader Declaration, in which theleaders promised to implement medium- to long-term measures,
including helping African countries to double their production ofmajor foodstuffs in the next ﬁve to 10 years.(22)82

3 Crisis Creeping in
The crises outlined in the preceding sections are those having direct
impact on human activities, such as the shortage of resources andenergy. In this section, we would like to address global warming
and the loss of biodiversity, which are issues having great impact
on mankind resulting from an upset in the balance of the global
environment due to the burden imposed by human activities. These
two are crises difﬁcult to recognize because they do not affect ourlives in a very obvious manner, and as such could be referred to ascrisis creeping in.
Global warming is believed to be caused by emissions of CO2
and other greenhouse gases, which increased as a result of ouroverreliance on fossil fuels as the source of energy for economic
development. It is feared that global warming will consequently
cause global climate change and have a serious impact on mankind.
And with the loss of biodiversity which is caused by a large scalechange in nature with mankind expanding the use of land invarious ways, it has now become a problem that mankind may lose
the foundation of the blessings that they received from the natural
world.

(1) Global Warming
The global warming problem

As a result of a range of research efforts, scientists have madesteady progress in clarifying the causes of global warming. As aﬁrst step in dealing with the issue of global warming, the following

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

83

The fact that the atmospheric concentration of CO 2, which isa greenhouse gas, is increasing has been identified by various
observations. In particular, the in-depth measurement of
atmospheric CO2 by Charles D. Keeling,(23) a meteorologist, andothers is well known (Fig. 17). The measurement began at the U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s Earth System
Research Laboratory located in Mauna Loa in Hawaii, following
the International Geophysical Year of 1957. The result, known as
the Keeling Curve, shows the level of CO2 in the atmosphere
increasing year by year while making cyclical seasonal changes(ppm)

CO2 concentrations

380

Observation data→ → Observation data collectedby the U.S. National
collected by the Scripps
Oceanic and AtmosphericInstitute ofOceanography(data up to April 1974)
Administration
360(data from May 1974)

340

320
1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

(Year)

Source: Based on the website of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mio.html)

Figure 18 Trends in Annual Global Mean Temperatures
(℃ )

0.5

14.5

0.0

14.0

-0.5

13.5

1850

1900

1950

Estimated annual global mean temperatures(absolute values)

Increase in CO2 emissions from human activities

Figure 17 Trends in Atmospheric CO2

Difference from 1961-1995 averagedescribes what global warming is.
The solar rays reaching the Earth permeate the atmosphere, tobe absorbed by the ground surface, eventually warming the Earth ssurface. Once the surface is heated, heat is radiated from the heatedground surface into space as infrared rays. In these processes, theatmosphere is heated by both the solar rays and the infrared rays thatpass through it. The atmosphere contains gases known as greenhousegas that include CO2 and methane, which absorbs a part of theheat that the Earth radiates back into space. Then a part of the heatabsorbed by greenhouse gases is reemitted back to the Earth, warming
the lower layers of the atmosphere and the ground. This mechanism
keeps the temperature of the Earth s atmosphere at a level suitable forvarious living beings on the planet. Nevertheless, as the concentrationsof atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, the amount of heat emitted
back to the Earth s surface also increases, and this causes a rise in thetemperature of the atmosphere and the oceans, and thus the averagetemperature of the Earth rises. This is the basic mechanism of global
warming.

2000(Year)

Annual values
Smoothed series (10 years)
Range of uncertainties based on present scientific fi ndings(5-95% decadal error bars)

Source: Based on data available at the website of Japan Center for Climate Change
Actions: http://www.jccca.org/content/view/1730/900/(Original data: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)

84

Part 2 Conditions for Survival85

which reﬂect the growth of plants. Dr. Keeling made great efforts
in continuing his observations at the Laboratory and collected CO2
data over many years, which provided very important information
in initiating scientiﬁc discussions on global warming.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report announced in 2007 by theUnited Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that the increase in greenhouse gases is very likely to
be attributable to human activities, going a step further than the
IPCC Third Assessment Report published in 2001 which assessed
human involvement as likely. According to the Earth System
Research Laboratory in Mauna Loa, atmospheric concentrationsof CO2 have increased by about 20 percent or more over the past
50 years (Fig. 18). Also according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report, the mean (average) global temperature has risen by about
0.7 degrees centigrade over the past century, and in particular, in the
recent 50 years it has risen at a pace that is almost double that overthe past 100 years.

Figure 19 Examples of Impacts Associated with Changes
in the Global Average Temperature

0

86

3

2

4

5℃

Increased water availability
in moist tropics and high latitudes

Water

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes
and semi-arid low latitudes
Hundreds of millions of people exposed toincreased water stress
Up to 30% of species atincreasing risk of extinction
Increased coralbleachingSigniﬁcant extinctions
around the globe
Widespread coralmortality

Most corals bleached

Ecosystems~15%
Increasing species range shifts
and wildﬁre risk

~40% of ecosystems affected
Terrestrial biosphere tends
toward a net carbon source:

Ecosystem changes due to weakening of themeridional overturning circulation

Complex, localized negative impacts on smallholders,
subsistence farmers and ﬁshers

Food

Predicted impacts of global warming

In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, it is predicted that if thetemperature rises by 2 degrees or more compared to the baseline
period ( 1980 to 1999 ) , the scale of damage will increase invarious areas (Fig. 19), such as another several 100 million people
facing serious shortages of water, up to 30 percent of species
in ecosystems facing higher risk of extinction, productivity of
cereals decreasing in low-latitude areas, damage from ﬂoods andstorms increasing in coastal areas and more people suffering from
infectious diseases. Global warming will thus have significant
impacts across a range of ﬁelds. It is also predicted that sea levels
will further rise, and in fact countries like Tuvalu and the Maldives

1

Tendencies for cereal productivity todecrease in low latitudes

Productivity of all cereals
decreases in low latitudes

Tendencies for some cereal productivity toincrease at mid to high latitudes

Cereal productivity todecrease in some regions

Increased damage from ﬂoods
and storms
About 30% of global coastal
wetlands lost

CoastsMillions more people could experience coastal
ﬂooding each year
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory
and infectious diseases

HealthIncreased morbidity and mortality from heat waves,ﬂoods and droughts
Changed distribution ofsome disease vectors
Substantial burden on health services

Source: Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report, IPCC

Part 2 Conditions for Survival87are already facing the risk of being submerged by rises in sea levels
showing that the effects of global warming are for real.
Toward a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

At the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and this came into force inMarch 1994. The convention aims to achieve the stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level thatwould prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with theclimate system and mandates the parties to implement policies
to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the principles ofassuming common but differentiated responsibilities, giving
consideration to the specific needs and special circumstances ofdeveloping country parties , and taking precautionary measures ina prompt and effective manner .
To prevent global warming then, what should the greenhousegas emission target be? According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report, in order to stabilize the level of atmospheric greenhousegas at 450ppm, it is essential to reduce global emissions in thenext 10 to 15 years to at least half the level of the year 2000. In
particular, the Annex I Countries(24) are required to curtail theirgreenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40 percent over 1990 levels by
2020 and by 80 to 95 percent by 2050.
The Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3) held in Kyoto
in 1997 adopted the Kyoto Protocol, which set numerical reduction
targets to be achieved by the industrialized countries and theEuropean community. The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force
in May 2005, mandates countries to reduce their greenhouse gas

88

emissions by a speciﬁed amount over 1990 levels during the ﬁrst
commitment period (2008 to 2012).(25)
At present, studies are being made of numerical targets forthe period after the ﬁrst commitment period (post-Kyoto Protocol
period). The Council of the European Union has already reachedbasic agreement on a policy to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 20 percent (or by 30 percent depending upon
relevant international agreements) from 1990 levels by 2020 (seepage 90). As for Japan, at the United Nations Climate Change
Summit held in September 2009, then Prime Minister Hatoyama
made an international commitment to make it Japan s mediumterm target to reduce the country s greenhouse gas emissions by 25
percent over 1990 levels. The United States, which had not beenvery willing to set reduction targets, changed its attitude following
the inauguration of the Obama administration and is now indicatingthat the United States will lead the world in anti-climate change
measures. In the post-Kyoto Protocol measures, it is becoming
essential for developing countries to set their reduction targets.
Although both China and India are against setting mandatory
targets, President Hu Jintao of China announced at the United
Nations Climate Change Summit that the country would make aneffort to substantially reduce its greenhouse gas emissions per unit
gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 compared to 2005.
In December 2009, the 15th Conference of the Parties tothe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP15) and the fifth session of the Conference of the Parties
to the Kyoto Protocol (COPMOP5) were held in Copenhagen in
Denmark, and participants agreed to take note of the Copenhagen
Accord. Although COP15 was held with the intent to reachpolitical agreement on the Copenhagen Accord, it ended onlyPart 2 Conditions for Survival89with a decision to take note of the Accord. This international
agreement demands that the parties substantially reduce
global greenhouse gas emissions to keep the increase in global
temperature to below 2 degrees. Specifically, the accord requires
the developed countries to set quantitative reduction targets for2020 and make commitments to achieving those targets and to giveﬁnancial support to developing countries which are also required totake action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The accord isthus more in-depth than past summit documents. Although politicalconsensus was not reached on the accord, it must be acknowledgedthat the countries have acknowledged the importance of the accord,
and that will provide the basis for future studies. Nonetheless, withregard to the post-Kyoto Protocol measures, there still lies a large
gap in interests between the developed and developing countries
and they have yet to examine specific measures to fill the gap
toward establishing an effective international framework.

(2) Loss of Biodiversity
Biodiversity and its blessings

Since the birth of life on Earth about four billion years ago, living
things have continued to evolve to create the current natural world
full of diversity. Speciﬁcally, unicellular protozoans evolved into
multicellular organisms, from which a variety of land-dwelling
creatures were born. Human beings (26) were also born through theprocess of biological evolution and we cannot completely sever ourties with other creatures.
Biodiversity developed through such biological evolution.
Biodiversity refers to diversity (1) in the ecosystems, (2) among90

biological species, and (3) within the same species (between genes).
Diversity in the ecosystems means that different ecosystems
exist in different areas according to their different environments.
Diversity among biological species means that different species
exist in different regions and environments. Diversity within thesame species means that even creatures belonging to the same
species have different features because of the differences in theirgenes.
An ecosystem is formed by having its very complex balance
maintained. The functions of an ecosystem heavily depend on
the diversity of the living beings within it and they relate to andsupport each other to sustain their lives. An extinction of a species
will affect the balance of the ecosystem and lower its value. In ourdaily lives it is difﬁcult to notice the seriousness of an extinctionof a species, but we must understand how severely it could affectnature.
Since ancient times, the lives of human beings heavily depended
on nature within its cycles. And, mankind received various
blessings from many other living beings and the surrounding
environment. Since the beginning of the modern age, however,
mankind has been destroying nature through an activity they calldevelopment , which eventually caused global environmental
problems.
The health and welfare of mankind depends on ecosystemservices brought about by biodiversity. Nature, supported bybiodiversity, provides us humans with not only food, materials suchas fiber and wood, and ingredients for pharmaceuticals, but also
in recent years, information on the genes of various living beings.
They have contributed to the development of pharmaceuticals,
the production of food and energy, and to the progress of science

Part 2 Conditions for Survival91

(provisioning services). Biodiversity also plays an important rolein clarifying air and water, maintaining and promoting the naturalenvironment and the health of mankind (regulating services). And
further, biodiversity serves an important role in nurturing local
customs, food and other traditional cultures by bringing into playthose inherent blessings offered from the mountains, forests, rivers,
and sea (cultural services) in the region.
Biodiversity being lost

Since life ﬁrst emerged on Earth, the planet has witnessed a wide
spectrum of differentiation in species. The estimated 350,000
species that existed on Earth about 250 million years ago havegrown explosively in numbers after they moved their habitat outof the sea onto land, and now it is said that several million species
exist on the planet. In the history of the Earth, however, there havebeen five mass extinctions of species. Many species are said tohave become extinct due to collisions by meteorites or tectonics. In
spite of such incidences, once the Earth regained an environmentthat was habitable for the living beings, the number of species grew
again to form the present natural environment.
It is said that the living beings on Earth have now entered aperiod of mass extinction for the sixth time. Researchers including
Lord Robert May (27) and Dr. Norman Myers (28) who are past(2001) Blue Planet Prize winners have demonstrated that specieson the planet are now facing the danger of mass extinction at anexceedingly fast pace.
Then, how many species are actually decreasing in number? The
Living Planet Index (LPI) provides information on changes in the
populations of about 3,000 species based on the data made publicworldwide. According to the indicator, which was announced by

92

the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), the number of species
has decreased by about 40 percent during the period from 1970
to 2000. For species living in freshwater, they have decreased bymore than 50 percent (Fig. 20).
In fact, how many of Earth s species currently existing are indanger of extinction? Mankind has so far discovered about 1.6
million species. Most vertebrate animals and plants have alreadybeen discovered and species yet to be discovered are mostly
invertebrate animals. For those already-discovered 1.6 million
species, the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN) has been investigating the danger of extinction. The Union
has already completed the studies on about 45,000 species, andaccording to the studies about 40 percent of species are in danger

Figure 20 The Living Planet Index (1970, index=100)
Terrestrial species

100

All vertebrate species(Living Planet Index)

Marine species

80

60

60

Freshwater species
40
0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

( Year )Source: Based on Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 (2008, edited by the Secretariat of the Convention on
Biological Diversity and published by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment)
Original data: Living Planet Report (2004) WWF, UNEP-WCMC and Global Footprint Network

Part 2 Conditions for Survival93

of extinction as shown in Table 2.
It is now for the ﬁrst time in this modern era since the extinctionof the dinosaurs 65 million years ago that the abundance anddiversity of living beings are decreasing, and on the largest scale
ever. For birds, mammals, and amphibians, a total of about 100
species became extinct over the past 100 years, equal to one species
per year. This is 50 to 500 times faster than the normal extinction
rate recorded in the past. If we take into account those species that
became extinct but for which no records were kept, the present
extinction rate would be faster than past extinction rates by 1,000
times or more. Furthermore, if we consider insect species whose
number is vast, already several tens of thousands of species arethought to have been lost on Earth every year.

Table 2 Percentage of Endangered Species

Number of
species found byhumankindNumber of species
for which the living
status has been
investigated(percentage of species
for which evaluation work
has been completed)

Number of
species in dangerof extinction

Percentage of
species in dangerof extinction
among thosespecies whose
living status wasinvestigated

5,488

5,488

（100%）

1,141

21%

Birds

9,990

9,990

（100%）

1,222

12%

Reptiles

8,734

1,385

（16%）

423

31%

Amphibians

6,347

6,260

（99%）

1,905

30%

Fish

30,700

3,481

（11%）

1,275

37%

Invertebrate
animals*

1,232,384

6,161（0.5%）

2,496

41%

298,506

12,055

（4%）

8,457

70%

Vertebrate
animals

Mammals

Plants*OthersTotal

50,0401,642,189

18 （0.04%）
4 4,838

（3%）

9

50%

16,92838%＊ Invertebrate animals (e.g. insects), plants, and other are classiﬁed into subgroups in the IUCN Red

List, but here only the total numbers are shown.

Source: Based on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, ICUN, 200894

Degradation of forests and its impact

Forest ecosystems account for about 10 percent of the Earth ssurface area, which is about 30 percent of the land area. The area
occupied by these major ecosystems, however, has decreased by
40 percent over the past 300 years and the biodiversity harbored inthose forests continues to decline signiﬁcantly. The largest factor
that has contributed to the decrease in biodiversity on land over the
past 50 years is thought to be the conversion of forest to farmland(slash-and-burn agriculture and grazing).
In recent years, forests have been increasingly felled amid
the shift from a self-sufficient economy to a money economy,
the increase in population and the expansion in food ( meat )consumption, and the changes in people s values regarding
nature (sense of awe). For example, in the Amazon, 70 percent
of deforested area has become pastureland. The traditional slashand-burn method of cultivation done in the past was a sustainable
way in utilizing forests when the population density was low, but
now it threatens their conservation. Moreover, due to increases inthe demand for mineral resources, destruction of forests linked to
exploitation of resources is emerging.
Forest ecosystems provide us with clean and safe water andvarious other ecosystem services. A decrease in forest area could
result in a decrease in precipitation with less water evaporating
into the air, which could then cause a shortage of drinking waterand health problems, including frequent outbreaks of infectious
diseases. It is widely known that forests also play an important rolein preventing landslides and slope failures, and with the decreasein forest area, the damage caused by such disasters could spread.
Within other functions that forests serve, circulating oxygen andcarbon in the atmosphere and on ground is one that is important.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

95

Until recent times, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have beenstable owing a lot to plant photosynthesis. In recent years, however,forests have been rapidly developed for use as farmland, and haveshrunk because of the increases in areas reclaimed for large-scaleslash-and-burn agriculture, inappropriate commercial logging, andforest fires. As a result, about six billion tons of CO2 have been
emitted across the globe,(29) which is equivalent to more than 20
percent of the CO2 emitted by the use of fossil fuels (26 billion tons
per year).
This means that on top of substantially reducing ourconsumption of fossil fuels to prevent global warming, encouraging
forestation and preventing deforestation both have now become

Figure 21 Trends in the Area of Forests (1990-2005)-5,0002000〜2005
1990〜2000-3,0000-1,000South America
South Asia, Southeast Asia
Eastern and Southern Africa
Western and Central Africa
North Africa
Oceania
Central America
Increase
North America▲▲

Decrease
Western and Central Asia
Caribbean
EuropeEast Asia

1990〜2000

0

1,000

3,000

2000〜2005

5,000(1,000ha)

Source: Based on FAO Global Resources Assessment 2005 Progress towards sustainable forest management

96

very important. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,
it is possible to reduce emissions of CO2 by 1.3 to 4.2 billion tons
annually by increasing forestation and preventing deforestation.
At present, however, we cannot say that enough is being done. As
shown in figure 21, inappropriate development and logging arestill continuing in areas such as South America and Africa, and theworld s forest area is continuously on the decline.
Most of the areas where degradation and loss of forests aretaking place because of illegal logging and harvesting tend to beeconomically poor. At the meetings held under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, discussions areunderway to introduce a new system to support the United Nations
Program: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradationin Developing countries ( REDD ) . It is hoped that a system isestablished so that forests are conserved without illegal logging
taking place and to provide benefits to local communities byintroducing the idea of price premiums for biodiversity in addition
to carbon credits.(30)
Human activities damage the resilience of biodiversity

Living beings form ecosystems by building relations with others
living in the same area ( Fig. 22 ) . An ecosystem is a complex
system in which plants, animals, and microorganisms interrelate
to each others. In a stable ecosystem, a balance is maintained
among the living beings by having a variety of them in it. But withhuman activities causing devastation to habitats for living things,
overexploitation of certain species and populations and pollution of
the environment, biodiversity is in a critical situation.
At present, a number of natural ecosystems have lost theirbalance and have been damaged almost beyond the point ofPart 2 Conditions for Survival

97

recovery. The crisis in biodiversity can be seen clearly in theincreases in the number of extinct species and those in dangerof extinction. These crises originate from human activities,
such as deforestation, overexploitation of biological species andpopulations, overuse of agricultural pesticides, and increases in thenumber of invasive alien species.
According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report the impacts
global warming will have on biodiversity are predicted as follows:a decrease in the resilience of ecosystems; a decrease in the amountof carbon absorbed by land-based ecosystems; an increased riskof extinction for biological species; degradation in the goods andservices that ecosystems provide (e.g., water and food); and adecrease in the number of biological species such as corals due toacidiﬁcation of the oceans.

Figure 22 How an Ecosystem Works

Specifically, ecosystems are becoming less resilient withchanges in the climate and because of the resulting occurrence of
ﬂoods, droughts, forest ﬁres, harmful insects, and the acidiﬁcationof the oceans, and because of the changes in the use of lands,
soil contamination, and excessive development of resources.
The net amount of carbon absorbed by land-based ecosystems ispredicted to reach a peak within the ﬁrst half of this century andwith predictions that the ability to absorb carbon will decrease oreven be reversed to emit, it is suggested that climate change may
be ampliﬁed. If the global average temperature rises by more than
1.5 to 2 degrees, the risk of extinction for about 20 to 30 percent
of biological species could become even higher, causing serious
negative effect on those goods and services provided by the
ecosystem, such as water and food. The acidiﬁcation of the oceans,
which is caused by the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration,is predicted to have an adverse impact on oceanic shell-forming
creatures such as corals and on all other species that depend onthem.
Predicted impact of loss of biodiversity

Primary consumers

Producers(Grass-eating animals)

High-level
consumers(Predators)

Food

Fallen leaves

Food

Carcasses andexcrements

Nutrients(nitrogen compounds)

98

Decomposers

Carcasses andexcrements

According to the interim report The Economics of Ecosystems& Biodiversity (TEEB)”,(31) which was announced by the TEEB
project team at the ninth meeting of the Conference of the Parties
to the Convention on Biodiversity ( COP9 ) held in 2008, theeconomic loss caused by this loss of biodiversity will reach an
amount equivalent to six percent of the world s GDP by 2050 if noproactive measures are taken to prevent it.
With this loss of biodiversity occurring on a global scale, it will
become difficult to procure various goods (agricultural products
and others) and services (purification of water and air, control

Part 2 Conditions for Survival99

of climate change and natural disasters, and provision of spacefor recreational activities) from the ecosystem, which have beenreadily available to us up to now. Moreover, ecosystems might
become more vulnerable to disruptions and dramatic change. For
example, if an agricultural product depended on only one breed
variety and that variety became extinct due to illness or harmful
insects, any society that depended on the product would face aserious crisis. By having a variety of species, biological systems
can deal with various external factors.
Furthermore, disruptions to ecosystems and loss of biodiversity
will have a serious impact on those people who depend directly on
services provided by their surrounding ecosystems. For example,
there are many people living in a nature-rich regions in developing
countries getting water, food, and fuel necessary for their lives
from their surrounding natural habitat, such as forests. If the local
ecosystems are destroyed, it would become difficult for them toget safe water, food, and fuel from the forest, and because they
are living in an area where economic activities tend not to bewell developed, they will not be able to get access to water, food,and fuel through the market. Loss of biodiversity will therefore
make it more difficult for poor people to break out of poverty.
The international community set the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs)(32) as common targets to be pursued to eliminate
poverty, and to attain these goals, it is important for communities
to conserve biodiversity.
Trends in international initiatives to conserve biodiversity

International initiatives to conserve biodiversity include theConvention on Biological Diversity, the Washington Convention,and the Ramsar Convention. The Washington Convention regulates

100

international trade in endangered wild animals and plants, and theRamsar Convention is intended to help protect the wetlands thatare internationally important habitats for water birds. These twoconventions aim to protect biodiversity by focusing on specificspecies or specific areas, while the Convention on Biological
Diversity complements the two conventions and provides aframework for implementing comprehensive measures.
The Convention on Biological Diversity was signed by 168
countries at the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 and came into
force in December 1993. This convention has the following threegoals: to conserve a range of living beings and their habitats on
Earth; to use biological resources in a sustainable manner; andto share the benefits arising from genetic resources in a fair andequitable manner.
At the sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to theConvention on Biological Diversity, the Strategic Plan for theConvention on Biological Diversity was adopted. Based on
this plan, the parties are building their capacity for biodiversity
conservation, formulating and implementing national strategies,
and promoting awareness raising and education on the importanceof biodiversity in their respective countries. Their common target
is to achieve by 2010 a substantial reduction in the current rate ofbiodiversity loss . Nonetheless, according to the progress reporton the Strategic Plan at the ninth meeting of the Conference, thiscommon target seemed difficult to achieve, and now the plan isbeing reviewed to strengthen future efforts. At the 10th meeting of
the Conference to be held in Nagoya City, Japan in October 2010,
participants will set new targets for biodiversity conservation.
At the meetings of the Conference, discussions were held on

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 101

access to genetic resources and allocation of the benefits fromthese resources. For example, at the sixth meeting, guidelines wereadopted for the procurement and use of genetic resources and thefair and equitable sharing of beneﬁts arising from those resources.
At present, studies are underway to establish a more detailed andlegally binding international framework based on the Convention
on Biological Diversity under the auspices of the World Intellectual
Property Organization (WIPO). A number of developing countries
are now insisting on the need to create a system that allows
them to share the profits made from products manufactured
using biological resources originating in their countries, while
the developed countries take the view that what the developing
countries are insisting on could violate the rules of the existing
systems for patents and trade-related intellectual property rights(TRIPs). Before establishing an international framework, it would
thus seem essential to hold deeper and more detailed discussions.
The Convention on Biological Diversity defines a need for a
protocol that sets out the procedures to be followed to prevent
living modiﬁed organisms (LMOs) (which are organisms modiﬁed
by modern biotechnology such as genetic manipulation) from badly
affecting the conservation(32) and sustainable use of biodiversity. To
meet this need, the Cartagena Protocol was adopted in Montreal
in June 2000, taking the name of the place where the meeting toformulate the protocol was held. The protocol sets out rules on
the import and export of LMOs, and at present, discussions areunderway on the international rules that will apply to cases where
damage is resulting from the import/export of LMOs.
In addition to conventions intended to conserve biodiversity,
there are also various other international initiatives relevant toresearch in biodiversity, including an international program on

102

biodiversity science called DIVERSITAS, the Global Biodiversity
Information Facility (GBIF), and the Global Earth Observation
System of Systems ( GEOSS ) . In addition, discussions areunderway on establishing an Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as aplatform to coordinate science and policy, which would work forbiodiversity in a similar way that IPCC does for climate change.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 103

Chapter 2

A Vision for the
21st Century
─A Solar Energy-Based Society

104

Dr. James Lovelock,(33) the British scientist who won theBlue Planet Prize in 1997, proposed the Gaia hypothesis
which states that there is an interrelation between thebiosphere on Earth and the oceans, geosphere, and theatmosphere, and they work to maintain a balance as awhole. This hypothesis regards the Earth as a systembehaving like one large living organism. This Earthsystem can be considered to provide an environment
suitable for the survival of mankind. The Earth system
is maintained by a good balance between the inorganic
non-biological environment that includes sunlight, waterand soil, and the biological environment. So, if humanactivities cause damage to the global environment, which
will disturb the balance, this will eventually damage thefoundation for the survival of mankind.
How should mankind deal with the crisis that isthreatening the very foundation for its survival? As
described in Chapter 1, mankind has already begun
implementing concrete measures against individual
problems. In this chapter, instead of discussing short-term
measures to deal with the crisis, we would like to propose
a vision to deal with the present crisis more radically andstructurally by imagining a century from now and layingout a picture of a society we should aspire to after weovercome the crisis.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 105

1 What Is a “Solar Energy-Based Society?”
Ignorance and indifference toward nature by mankind has brought
this crisis that may cause it to lose the foundation for its survival.
Why has this happened? It is now necessary to ﬁrmly review the
relationship between human beings and nature and establish aprinciple upon which to rebuild the relationship.

(1) As a biological being and a social being
Between biological and social beings

We humans are both social and biological beings. As biologicalbeings, our life depends on nature and we exist within nature as avery tiny part of all living beings. As an entity within nature, man
can only be inﬂuenced by changes in the natural environment. It
is the activities originating from our social being that are causing
the environmental problems. Human beings have forgotten thatthey are an entity within nature, and as social beings have upset
the balance of nature that forms the foundation of their existence.
Economic development, which has been human-centered lacked
a balanced view of nature and that could be said to have brought
about the current global environmental problems. Modernizationand industrialization since the 18th century have been driven byhumans developing, consuming, and disposing of natural resources
with the aid of science and technology. Consequently nature is
being pushed beyond its ability to recover and the natural resources
are being depleted.
To solve our global environmental problems, we need to make106

better use of science and technology and review our social systems,
but first we have to reconsider the human-centered approachand explicitly recognize that we are one of many species, abiological being that depends on nature, and unless a sound naturalenvironment is maintained, the foundation of our very existence
will be lost.
As various cells each function within a biological body tosustain the body in the natural world, and as various biological
species mutually support each other to form an ecosystem, we mustalso rethink and conﬁrm once again the mutual relationship among
us human beings and understand that no human being lives alone,
and that we have survived by each serving a role within a family,
or local society or other organizations, and by mutually cooperating
within them.
Human beings in nature

As we have hitherto been lacking the viewpoint that we are bothbiological and social beings and that nature is the foundation forthe survival of all living beings, we have pursued our economic
activities without recognizing the finiteness of the naturalenvironment and the resources, and the limits to nature s resilience.
Our economic activities should serve just as a means to live, but
we have been pursuing economic growth only in terms of material
wealth and to make our lives more comfortable, without realizing
the importance of nature s blessings that support our lives, ourmutual reliance on others, and the wealth of the spirit.
It is now time for us to start to understand the complex selfrecovering function the Earth possesses to achieve development
without weakening nature s resilience or depleting the Earth snatural resources and to set a target for a sustainable coexistencePart 2 Conditions for Survival 107

with nature in a global scale. What is important is to build a society
where human beings can lead vibrant lives while maintaining thebalance of the natural system.
In order for such a society to be created, it is necessary tomaintain the natural system as that is the foundation for thesurvival of mankind. Here we call this Earth with such a vision
The Blue Planet. Mankind has its existence in nature which
includes cosmic space, the Earth, and our own localities, andwe depend on it. Therefore, a human society cannot be one that
disturbs the balance of nature and instead has to be one that regards
the natural environment as the foundation of life and respects its
blessings. Thereby, based on the concept that human beings arepart of nature, we can dream of a new society that guarantees fullcultural diversity for all individuals and societies, and that willtransform the Earth into The Blue Planet.

(2) A Vibrant Solar Energy-Based Society
The 20th century was an era where individuals trying to satisfy
themselves went on expanding their own desires and interestsand competed. Having focused too much on pursuing individualcompetition, we have neglected to care for the global environment,
nature in its vast and complex entirety. This negligence caused
the global environment huge damage and is now threatening theconditions for survival of all living beings including, humans.
This miraculous planet with its abundant life forms that we call
Earth would not have come into existence without the Sun, and allforms of life on the planet including ourselves are supported bysolar energy. The sun s energy is immense and nature s blessings108

are created both directly and indirectly by this energy.
Solar heat raises the temperatures of the land and sea surfaces,
generating convection currents, and then water vapor in the airtransforms itself into raindrops and falls as rain to moisten the land.
It is thanks to this heat and water that a vast array of life forms
have been born and green plants grow, supporting the lives ofplant-eating creatures and nurturing nature on Earth. Furthermore,
plants absorb CO2, and produce oxygen and organic matter throughphotosynthesis. The Sun shines throughout the Earth providing
its blessings without discrimination; all life receives its bounty tosupport their lives.
Solar energy supporting the lives of all living things including
mankind provides its beneﬁts to all. The amount of available solar
energy differs by region, which leads to diverse local climatesand natural environments. Human beings have adapted to live innature gradually modifying the way that they live to suit the local
environment, and have thus established a multitude of lifestyles
and cultures.
For 21st century man to be a society under the Sun full ofenergy and life for both nature and human beings, we need to put
solar energy, which is the basis for all life, in the center and byplacing the utmost value on nature itself, respect the diverse andmutual values between all living things and humans, let their vital
power ﬂourish under the Sun. Here we shall call such a society asolar energy-based society, one which works not solely forthe benefit of human beings and not only for the rich or for the
powerful countries.
In the following paragraphs, we will lay out a little indetail the concept of a solar energy-based society. Before theIndustrial Revolution started, people lived in and alongside

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 109

nature, receiving the blessings of the Sun every day. Since theIndustrial Revolution, however, people became dependent on
fossil fuels to expand their economic activities. Fossil fuels
are a form of resource wealth produced through many years ofaccumulation of the Sun s blessings. But a huge amount of fossil
fuel is wasted every year. As a result, we are now facing a crisis:
the depletion of fossil fuels and global warming. In addition, due
to the regional disparities in the availability of fossil fuels and in
the technologies to use these fuels, new problems such as the gaps
in the standard of living and economic progress between regions
are emerging.
In order to overcome these problems, it is essential to affirm
once again the importance of respecting nature and all living
beings on Earth; they are all supported by the Sun s blessings. Allliving beings are supported by resources that are produced by solar
energy, and the only way to overcome the present crisis is to build
a society in which we can use the solar energy provided each day
by the Sun instead of using up the accumulated resources of the
Earth.
The solar energy-based society which we propose in thisdocument does not simply refer to a society that uses solar
energy. It also considers sustainable conservation of the naturalenvironment, including life that is supported by the Sun as thefoundation of the society. Specifically, society as we envision
should have the following features:
1. A society that values nature itself
2. A cooperative society that extends consideration for natureand for others

110(3) Vision of a Solar Energy-Based Society
A society that values nature itself

Most people in the world have been unaware of or indifferent
to the existence of the natural world, which is the foundation oflife for all creatures on Earth. And in the process of economic
development without being conscious of the various blessingsnature provides, they made changes to nature and put a burden
on it. As a result, global environmental problems, represented by
global warming and loss of biodiversity have emerged. Mankind
has taken nature s blessings for granted forgetting that humans as
biological beings can only exist within the limits of nature and is
exploiting resources in a way that is damaging nature beyond its
ability to recover. What we are facing now is the natural outcomeof what we did in the past.
Since the first life emerged on Earth about four billion years
ago, life has been repeating the cycles of birth, extinction, andevolution, and as a result, there are now several million species
on Earth. Mankind is just one of these species created throughevolution just as others. But since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution, following increases in population and the growth of themarket economy, mankind has increased the production of food andmaterials, and promoted industrialization and urbanization thereby
modifying nature and depriving it of biological resources, andpolluting the environment. As a result, a huge number of species
have become extinct. The extinction rate is accelerating and today
we are facing a crisis with loss of biodiversity. Fossil fuels, whichwere formed by the accumulation of organic material over several
hundred million years, have nearly been depleted in only a few
hundred years due to excessive exploitation by human beings.

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All living things including humans as biological beings livein symbiosis with nature with mutual connections. Mankind
endangers its own sustainability by damaging nature beyond its
ability to recover. We must look once again at the signiﬁcance andvalue of nature, which supports all life on Earth, including our own
and reevaluate it. To prevent global environmental problems frombecoming worse and to pass down the myriad blessings we receivefrom the natural world to future generations, we must transform
our society to one in which people live in harmony with nature andas an integral part of the natural world.
That is a society where people regard the natural environment
as the foundation for their lives and value its blessings, and can bereferred to as a solar energy-based society. Nature is valuable tomankind not just because we can use its resources, but as nature
itself which is the very foundation for mankind to survive. To
recognize the value of nature itself requires us to base our activities
in harmony with nature. And living in harmony with nature will inturn help us create a society in which people value nature itself.
Dr. Amory B. Lovins,(34) who received the Blue Planet Prizein 2007, urges us to shift from industrial capitalism to natural
capitalism. Here, the natural capital does not simply mean nature s
ecosystems. It also refers to fertile soil, circulation of the atmosphere,
and other infrastructures that provide mankind with the environment
necessary to maintain its life, and to all the resources used by humanbeings, such as water, minerals, and oil. Natural capitalism means
pursuit of an economic society that takes into account the valueof nature s capital by revisiting the dependency relation between
the maintenance and supply of natural capital and the industrial
production carried out by human beings. Natural capitalism regards
nature as the capital needed for the economic society and gives

112

consideration in sustaining it. It therefore recognizes the value ofnature and provides the core idea for the creation of a society thatvalues and harmonizes with nature.
Professor Hirofumi Uzawa, who won the Blue Planet Prize in2009, also advocates the importance of appropriately controllingand managing both the natural environment and social systems inmaintaining a society continually and stably, based on his uniqueconcept of social common capital. Social common capital meansa natural environment and social systems that will enable a country
or a region to pursue a rich economic life, develop an outstanding
culture and maintain sustainably and stably a society humanly
attractive. The natural environment is the most important social
common capital, since it comprises mountains, forests, rivers,
lakes and ponds, and the oceans as well as water, soil, and the air.
The concept of social common capital which considers the naturalenvironment as essential has the same sense of values as the solar
energy-based society where the natural environment is regarded
as indispensable for humans and all other living beings to live.
A cooperative society that extends consideration
for nature and for others

Our market economy-driven societies of the 20th century attributed
importance to the principle of the market mechanism. Competition
motivated individuals to become creative and energized thesociety. At the same time, however, competition intensiﬁed without
due consideration being given to the fact that human beings arebiological beings who belong to nature, and that this competition
was contributing to the destruction of the natural environment.
Based on the idea that human beings are part of nature and thatpeople depend on each other in the society, can we not say that

Part 2 Conditions for Survival113

we need to place more value on cooperation than on competitionin the 21st century? When we deeply think about the possibilityof the survival of mankind, we learn that mankind lives thanks tonature s blessings, that is, without such blessings it cannot live.
At the same time, it tells us that in this complex society, many
entities live in mutual dependence, and that they cannot live freeof interpersonal relations. Based on this recognition, everyone
should be able to understand that as individuals they have theirrespective roles in nature and in the society and it is important tohave consideration for others. Consideration for others means
to respect the independence of people in different positions. In
a society composed of individuals of different gender, age, andability, mutual respect is essential to ensure peaceful and fairrelationships between people. In particular, regarding the issue of
having respect for the socially weak who tend to be neglected in
our market economy-driven society, the society must face up to the
problems they present.
We must have consideration for others not only for individuals
but also for other countries, future generations, and for nature.
Being considerate to others means we are motivated to support
each other─something that we can never do in the competitive
pursuit of individual interests. People consider and support eachother when they respect each other, and such mutual respect will
help to build an energetic society full of diversity.
In order to realize a vibrant society oriented towards cooperation,individuals, companies, and countries should respect nature in theirrespective capacities and continue to search for the new mankind
that lives in harmony with nature. Individuals must establish newlifestyles that set the value consideration for others in the center.
Companies must build new corporate philosophies that take into

114

consideration nature s ability to recover based on the concept
of consideration for nature. Countries, on the other hand, mustclarify what they should do for global environment and to sustain
mankind while globalizing their economic activities and deepening
intergovernmental relations. Countries must then take cooperative
actions, taking fully into account their impact on other countries
and the global environment.
In this way, a society that can cooperate in every ﬁeld with fullconsideration given to nature and others will be the foundation forthe solar energy-based society.
Figure 23 shows our vision of a future solar energy-basedsociety.

Figure 23 Vision for a New Society

Goal

Realizing the Blue Planet full of life

Solar energy-based society
New society to
be created

Ideas forbuilding the
new society

Society that values nature itself
A cooperative society that extends consideration for nature andfor others- Shifting to a society in which people live in harmony with nature- Fairly distributing and passing on the common assets of mankind- Dialogue in building a solar energy-based society- Using science and technology to build a solar energy-based societyPart 2 Conditions for Survival

115

2 Building a “Solar Energy-Based Society”(1) Shift to a Society that is in Harmony with Nature
Mankind has expanded its economic activities without considering
the limits to nature s ability to recover. The Club of Rome warned
the international community about nature s limits in The Limits
to Growth, but ignorance in trying to understand those limits
has continued to the present. Along with the globalization taking
place in the market economy, competition has intensified ineconomic societies, and people and organizations have pursued
a self-centered development unscrupulously to survive in themarket. Competition adds vigor to the market, but if countries arefatally defeated in competing for markets, the entire society will
eventually lose its vigor. We need to re-realize that at the beginning
we lived in harmony with nature in an interdependent way, andfrom now on pursue moderate activities wherein others and othercountries can recover by setting action principles where society
never presses nature beyond its ability to recover and live inharmony with nature
Since humans appeared on this Earth, mankind has been an
entity receiving the blessings of nature. As far as nature itself
sustained its balance maintaining its harmony, mankind could
receive those blessings without disturbing the harmony of nature
if the blessings were used within the range of the natural cycle orresilience. But the problems of shortages of water and food that wehave begun to see recently could be considered a result of overuseof nature beyond limits. Predictions suggest that the world s
population will continue to increase with the demand for water and116

food also rising, which will make the problems with water and fooda serious concern if appropriate measures are not taken.
To solve these problems, it is indispensable to limit our use
of nature to a range that will not hinder the natural cycle andresilience, so that mankind continues to appreciate the abundant
blessings nature provides. To this end, we must create a society
following the idea mankind has inherited through the years in which
we use water, forests, and land in harmony with nature and in linewith its natural circulation. We also need to understand the complex
relationship between nature and human beings and continue tosearch for a better coexisting relationship between the two.

(2) Fair Distribution and Passing On of theCommon Assets of Mankind

The concept of sustainable development, which the Brundtland
Commission proposed in the report it published in 1987 speciﬁcallymeans development that meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet theirown needs and is intended to help achieve fairness down thegenerations. Nature meets a variety of human needs and provides
the foundation for human life, and if nature is badly damaged bydevelopment by the current generation, future generations will lose
the foundation of their lives and will not be able to meet their own
needs. We need therefore to re-recognize that nature provides afoundation also for the lives of future generations and that we havethe responsibility to pass on nature s riches, which provide bothspiritual and material blessings to future generations.
We must pass on not only a healthy natural environment

Part 2 Conditions for Survival

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but also social infrastructure that includes roads, transportation
facilities, water supplies and sewage systems, electricity andgas; social institutions such as educational systems, medicalcare, legal affairs, culture, and financial services; and also theknowledge accumulated by mankind. The natural environments,social infrastructure, social institutions, and knowledge together
comprise an indispensable common asset for society to preserveand maintain the lives, livelihoods and dignity of mankind. It is
important to ensure that the social infrastructure, social institutions,and knowledge are used in a way that helps to build a humansociety that values nature as the foundation for survival.
In pursuing fairness among regions, it is also important tocorrect the one-sided exploitation and unfair distribution of
resources which occurs between developed and developing
countries. For example, global warming has the largest effecton developing countries and their people, so in coping with the
problem, it is vital that we consider the huge gap between thedeveloped and developing countries in terms of technologicaldevelopment capabilities and cost-sharing abilities.

(3) Dialogue for building a

Solar Energy-Based Society

When we look at the cause and the effect of the crisis caused
by global environmental problems, as they relate to all humanactivities, all the people in the world are required to participate andcooperate. For that purpose, it is vital to build social ties so that the
problem can be dealt with by the world as a whole. Social ties are
established between individuals, companies, local communities,

118

NGOs, nations, and other entities and also those in the same
category ( among individuals, among companies, among local
communities, among NGOs, and among nations). As described in
the section on a cooperative society that extends consideration
for nature and others, in order to create a tie between different
entities, people must ﬁrst establish relations where they mutuallyrespect and care for each other s positions.
In order to create relations where people mutually care foreach other, it is necessary to promote a dialogue to seek a way thatwill benefit both parties upon recognizing each other s position
and the mutual relationship instead of selfishly seeking to wineach discussion or negotiation. By building relationships throughdialogue, each entity will be able to clarify its own role to ensurethat all the parties will receive long-term beneﬁts. In the process ofglobal consensus building to create a society in which people live inharmony with nature, and to make clear the roles of each entity for its
implementation, it will be necessary to establish a system that enables
various entities to collaborate and cooperate through dialogues.
However, countries sometimes try to protect their own interests
at the expense of others. Countries even start wars when confronted.
If we rethink the fact that human beings depend on both natureand each other, even between countries, it becomes important tobuild a better relationship of respecting each other. In order to solve
global environmental problems, it is necessary for each country totake action that goes beyond national interests, and a communityof nations such as the EU provides a good example of initiatives
taken in international cooperation. Wouldn t more countries reachconsensus and take international decisions more effectively if they
established a community that enables its members to engage indialogue beyond national interests?

Part 2 Conditions for Survival119

(4) Science and Technology Toward Building a

Solar Energy-Based Society

How should science and technology be involved in solving the
global environmental problems? Global environmental problems
such as global warming and loss of biodiversity are huge in scale
and involve a range of complex factors, and it will therefore takea long time to elucidate all the factors that cause the problems.
However, if no one acts until after all the factors are identiﬁed andoptimal solutions devised, it is very likely that the problem will beaggravated to a level so bad that the situation becomes out of handand can no longer be solved. It is therefore necessary to take ananticipatory approach(35) to the problem to prevent the occurrenceof irreversible damage. For example, we should assess the riskof development activities before they are implemented basedon objective data using all the expertise and technology that areavailable. In making an assessment, we should estimate the impactof the activity not only on the environment but also on the society
and the economy, which will help us examine interdisciplinary
measures to solve the problem.
Next, in what direction should science and technology move inthe long-term? So far, science and technology have been utilized tobring us material wealth and comfort. But there is another aspect
to this. The global environment has been damaged, as science andtechnology were used without consideration being given to what
impact their use would have on the environment and the society. It
is true that science and technology also provide us with solutions to
global environmental problems. We must therefore develop scienceand technology as a way to solve global environmental problems
by utilizing it as a means to build a society that harmonizes with120

nature, keeping in mind how the use of science and technology
could impact the environment and the society.
To promote science and technology to realize the Blue Planet,
we must evaluate the implications of science and technology
from multiple viewpoints, including how they will affect theenvironment and the society. To this end, it is necessary to use
knowledge from the human and social sciences in addition tonatural science to cover a range of ﬁelds in an integrated manner.
By knowledge, we mean knowledge of ethics and social systems
that can enable us to live in harmony with nature. We must use
both knowledge from science and technology and from the humanand social sciences in a comprehensive manner to solve global
environmental problems. For that purpose, it will become more
important to take an interdisciplinary approach to research that willallow researchers to study a problem in a comprehensive manner,instead of focusing on a strictly subdivided ﬁeld of research.
Science and technology should be developed and used in a
way that contributes to the sustainability of our societies with theintention of building a solar energy-based society. If utilized in thisdirection, science and technology will provide us with a powerfuland essential tool for change in realizing the Blue Planet.
Solar energy provides the very source of life for all living
beings on Earth, and the biosphere is maintained by the energy
irradiated constantly onto the Earth s surface. We must outgrow
from energy supplies that depend on depleting fossil fuels, andbuild a society in which we can live in harmony with nature. To
achieve this, it is important to make more effective use of solar
energy as a sustainable energy source, and for that purpose scienceand technology must play an important role.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 121

Chapter 3

Future Society
Created by
Overcoming Crises
The Path to a Vibrant
Solar Energy-Based Society

122

A solar energy-based society is a future society createdthrough overcoming the current crises. What milestones
are there on our way to building such a future society?
In this chapter, we will consider this, focusing on thefollowing themes: a shift to a society that values nature
itself, the sustainable use of energy, changes in lifestyles,
cooperation between urban and rural areas, improvements
in our social systems, and international cooperation.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 123

1 Building a Society that Values
Nature Itself
Nature and its ecosystems have the ability to recover by themselves,
but the crisis in biodiversity is caused by human activities that
go beyond nature s resilience, meaning that man as a biologicalbeing is damaging the foundations of his own existence. Dr. PaulR. Ehrlich(36) made it clear that it is essential for the existence ofmankind to maintain a stable ecosystem which supports biodiversity.
Dr. Ehrlich contributed to the development of the academic ﬁeld of
co-evolution, which means that species evolve in the ecosystem bymutually affecting each other. It is important for all people to shareand recognize that all living beings, including human beings are living
their lives with mutual ties and to make the effort to create a society inwhich humans coexist with other living things as part of nature.
Mankind would have been able to continue to enjoy nature s
blessings if it had lived in harmony with nature limiting its use within
the natural cycle and its resilience, but problems such as water andfood shortages across the globe which we have faced recently seemto indicate that we have exploited nature beyond its limits. With theworld s population projected to continue increasing, it is predictedthat demand for water and food will increase, raising concernsthat the situation will become more serious unless appropriate
countermeasures are taken.
In order to deal with the problem and ensure that mankind cancontinuously enjoy the great blessings of nature, it is essential that we
use nature within a range that does not damage the natural cycle and its
resilience. To achieve this, it is necessary to build a society based on theconcept of living in harmony with nature, in which people use water,

124

forests, and land in a manner that does not damage the natural cycle.

(1) Conservation of the Natural Environment
To value nature itself means to recognize the value that natural
ecosystems depend mutually on the subtle balance among living
things, water, and land, and thus it can be said to conserve the entire
natural environment including water and land as it is, is the best.
The Earth is home to a large variety of living things, but morethan a few are in danger of extinction. In response, the areas ofglobal importance for biodiversity are designated as hotspots. (37)(Fig. 24) By implementing measures to protect biodiversity in theseareas, we can preserve large numbers of species.

Figure 24 Biodiversity Hotspots (2004)

Hotspots

Source: Biodiversity Hotspots, Conservation International (2004)

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 125

Although the number of areas in which biodiversity conservation
is being implemented has been increasing year by year, the criteria
for selecting natural sanctuaries and their management methods
are not standardized. In developing countries in particular, illegal
logging often happens due to inappropriate management in a
number of national parks, and it is important to standardize theselection criteria and management methods.
To conserve biodiversity, the international community is now
in the process of creating a new funding mechanism. Withindeveloping countries, although they may be rich in biodiversity,
there are a number of areas where biodiversity is not fully
conserved due to a lack of financial and human resources. As amechanism to fund activities in such areas, there is the Critical
Ecosystem Partnership Fund ( CEPF ) . This fund, for example,
gives long-term support to NGOs that are engaged in biodiversity
conservation in hotspots located in developing countries, local
social organizations, and other civil organizations. The CEPF wasestablished with a joint public fund by the following organizationsin 2000: The Global Environment Facility,(38) The World Bank,
Conservation International, ( 39 ) the Japanese Government,
The John D. and Catherine McArthur Foundation, and theFrench Development Agency. In order to achieve biodiversity
conservation, such methods as having funds continuously flowfrom developed countries─the beneficiaries of biodiversity─ todeveloping countries─the suppliers of biodiversity and resources─ are being considered. It is considered effective to conserve
the global natural environment by establishing such a funding
mechanism (GDM: Green Development Mechanism).(40)
It might also be effective to designate an entire biodiversity hotspot
as a sanctuary for biodiversity, but such a designation would affect the126

lives of people living in the area because local development activities
would be restricted. There may be cases where it is difficult todesignate the hotspots as sanctuaries. If the entire natural environment
cannot be preserved, it is at least necessary to preserve particularly
valuable species for their use as gene resources in the future. For suchpreservation, there are methods where individual plants and animals
are preserved in facilities like centers for rare species, aquariums, zoos,
and botanical gardens, or methods where some parts of organisms
such as seeds and cells are preserved in gene banks. Gene resources
are a common asset for the whole of mankind, and in order to passon this important asset to future generations, we must build a global
system in which gene resources can be preserved and managed in asustainable and systematic manner. The natural resources of the whole
Earth cannot be protected if countries act only in their own interests.
In formulating an effective international framework to protect the
Earth s natural assets 100 years from now, it is indispensable to build
a cooperative system that is beyond national interests.

(2) Development that is in Harmony with Nature
In order to realize a society that harmonizes with nature, it is ﬁrst
necessary for us to fully understand the mechanisms of nature,including water circulation, interrelationships between nature andits living beings, and the productivity of land. Based on thoseunderstandings and on treating the natural world with respect, wemust review our past development methods and change them to
be in harmony with nature. Moreover, we must become aware of
the importance of learning from nature, and develop science andtechnology, not to conquer and change nature as we did in the past,

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 127

but to transform it and use in ways that will enable us to develop
nature in harmony with the natural world.
It will take time to fully understand all the complex mechanismsof nature. However, if we wait to review our past development
methods until we fully understand all of nature s mechanisms, itwill be too late. While using science to elucidate those mechanisms,
we must also search for development methods that do not harm thenatural world, taking a precautionary approach that is mindful of
uncertain factors, such as the impact that global warming might haveon water resources and ecosystems.

(3) Development That Does Not Obstruct

the Natural Circulation of Water

The amount of water circulated on Earth is defined by natural
conditions, and in theory by calculating the global total annual
demand, there should be no water shortage. However, due to regional
differences in the availability of water resources, seasonal differencesin precipitation, and changes in precipitation patterns caused by longterm climate changes, it has become a global issue that there are now
regions where water cannot be supplied in a stable manner.
Additionally due to climate changes caused by global warming,
precipitation patterns and water evaporation could change in many
regions, which could cause water shortages in a large number ofregions. Figure 25 shows a world map of water, using a water
stress indicator (annual withdrawal to availability ratio of water).
The water stress indicator reﬂects not only regional differences in
the availability of water resources due to differences in climaticand geographical conditions but also socioeconomic factors such as

128

population and the level of water supply infrastructures. As shownon the map, regions that include the northern part of China, Central
Asia, the Middle East, the northern part of Africa, and the westernpart of the United States are under high water stress.
Water circulates according to natural mechanisms, and from along-term viewpoint looking forward 100 years from now, it makes
sense to use water in a way that is in harmony with the natural
circulation of water. Accordingly, we must deal with the problemof water shortages, not by adopting water procurement methods
that will require the use of large amounts of energy, or involving
long-distance transportation of water or desalination of seawater;
rather, we must tackle the problem based on the concept that wemust limit our use of water to the amount that is available.
To this end, we must establish a cooperative system beyond regionaland national boundaries. Under this system, the amount of water

Figure 25 Global Water Stress

Water stress indicator:
annual withdrawal/potential
annual availability
Very high stressHigh stress
Mid stress
Low stress
No stress

Source: Based on World Water in 2025, Kassel World Water Series Report No. 2

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 129

available should be identiﬁed for each basin area, and the developmentof the area and local water use must be managed to ensure that thenatural circulation of water is not obstructed. These measures must
include controlling the local population and assigning land to industry
within the limits set by the availability of water in that locality.
The use of water for agriculture accounts for about 70 percent of
the world s water use, and thus represents a major part of water usage.
It is therefore vital to ensure that irrigation is carried out efﬁciently. If
irrigation is done inefficiently, water will be wasted by evaporation,
which together with leakage in damaged irrigation channels will
substantially decrease the efficiency. In particular in developing
countries, where surface irrigation is the mainstream irrigation method,a large amount of water evaporates, making the use of water inefﬁcient.
Saving irrigation water is therefore a very effective solution to water
shortage problems, and the developed countries could provide very
effective technical support to the developing countries, speciﬁcally byhelping them to reduce water evaporation, keep leakages to a minimum
and make use of underground water reserves.
In the developing countries, there are large numbers of people
who have no access to safe water despite the fact that there
are enough water resources around them. For these people, theadvanced water technologies that developed countries hold can play
an important role. It is important that the developed countries offer
technological and ﬁnancial support to the developing countries tohelp them improve their water supply infrastructures. One effective
way could be for the developed countries to concentrate theirsupport on a model city or an area to clearly demonstrate the actual
effect of their support. In giving such support, it is important forthe donor countries to ensure that they not only build the necessary
infrastructure, but also train engineers so that the developing

countries can continue to maintain and manage the infrastructure
themselves in a sustainable manner.
As shown in ﬁgure 26, the per-capita consumption of municipal
water is large particularly in developed countries, such as Australia,
the United States, Canada, Italy, and Japan. Excessive use ofwater in developed countries often leads them to cases where
they look to other countries to secure new supplies, which could
cause a destruction of the natural environment in the suppliercountries. Although it is true that water savings in Japan will not
directly improve the supply-demand balance in areas of the world
suffering water shortages, it is necessary for the entire international
community to understand the water demand situation and the

Figure 26 Per-Capita Consumption of Municipal Water
M3/person/year

300

32

250
3

200
33 36

150

18

8

2

50

1

0

10

4

20

30

40

20

2931
28

24

1213 15 17
14

5

0

22

10 11

100

26

6

50

34
27
30

19 21
7

9

16

60

23

70

35

37

38

39
40
41

25

80

90

42

100 %

Population ratio
1. China
2. India
3. The United States
4. Indonesia
5. Brazil
6. Pakistan
7. Bangladesh
8. The RussianFederation
9. Nigeria

10. Japan
11. Mexico
12. Germany
13. Vietnam
14. The Philippines
15. Egypt
16. Ethiopia
17. Iran
18. Turkey
19. Thailand

20. France
21. The United Kingdom
22. Italy
23. The Democratic
Republic of Congo
24. Ukraine
25. Myanmar
26. South Korea
27. South Africa
28. Spain

38. Other European and Central
29. Columbia
Asian countries
30. Poland
39. Other South American and
31. Argentina
Caribbean countries
32. Canada
40. Other Middle East and North
33. Iraq
African countries
34. Uzbekistan
41. Other South Asian countries
35. Venezuela
42. Other sub-Saharan African
36. Australia
countries
37. Other East Asian and
Paciﬁc countries

Source: Based on AWQUASTAT, FAO

130Part 2 Conditions for Survival 131

Figure 27 Prospects for the Percentages of Cereals for Food Use in the Demand
for Cereals (by Region)％

Latin America
and theCaribbean

East Asia

South Asia

Middle Eastand North
AfricaSub-SaharanAfrica

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Transition
countries

There are two feasible solutions to the food problem: the firstsolution is to optimize food production and the second is to
optimize the distribution of food.
When we look at the world, land productivity differs greatly
according to the area and it would be possible to increase foodproduction by making better use of highly productive land across theworld, which could potentially solve the problem of food shortages ifsuch an action is taken on a global level. It is also good for the naturalenvironment to make effective use of land suitable for food production,
since it will help to prevent the destruction of natural habitat throughunnecessary development of land. Food production, however, is related
to national security and at present it is not practically possible forcountries to come up with a global food production plan according to
the productivity of each land area and circulate food across the world.
From a very long-term view of looking at 100 years from now, weneed to start discussing how to achieve an appropriate production anddistribution of food for the world.
At present, while some countries are suffering from famine, there
are others that are overeating, where food is wasted in large amounts
and people are suffering heath problems due to an excessive intake
of calories. It is expected that the global food problem will be
mitigated by narrowing the gap between these countries, and for thisto be realized, a food distribution framework supported by a strong

1969/71
1999/01
2030
2050

the Fair Distribution of Food

Industrializedcountries(4) Protecting Productivity of the Land andinternational cooperation needs to be established.
The production of cereals has been increasing since 1950 due tothe following factors: the introduction of more productive varieties;
an increase in irrigated areas as a result of the spread in irrigation
technologies; and the expanded use of fertilizers. In emerging
economies such as China and India, the need for food is becoming
increasingly diversiﬁed as the standards of living improve, and people
are now eating more animal protein, which in turn is increasing thedemand for livestock food products. To produce livestock, it requiresa large amount of water and cereal feed. For example on a mass
basis, eight kilograms of cereals are needed to produce one kilogramof beef, four kilograms for pork, and two and a half kilograms forchicken meat. Figure 27 shows that the ratio of cereal production forfood use will decline with the rise in the ratio of cereal production

Demand for cereals for food use /Demand for all cereals

preciousness of water resources and become more aware of theimportance of making effective use of them.

Developing countries

Note: Transition countries refer to East European countries and former Soviet Union countries that areshifting to a market economy. The demand for cereals other than cereals for food use could include thedemand for cereals for use as feed and other cereals.
Source: Based on World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050 - Interim Report, FAO

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Part 2 Conditions for Survival 133

for feed use. This implies that global livestock food production willfurther increase due to changes in people s dietary habits. On theother hand, yields of cereals have been decreasing due to the shortageof irrigation water and hikes in fuel prices, and it is not clear whether
there will be significant progress in agricultural technologies (forbreeding etc.). We cannot therefore expect the production of cereals
for use in feeds to increase signiﬁcantly in the future.
The entire world might face food shortages with the increase
in world population. People have their own taste in food and it is
up to each individual to choose what to eat, but when we look to
the future, people in the developed countries might have to rethink
what they eat if we are going to avoid food shortages in the future.

2 Toward a Sustainable Use of Energy(1) Abundant Solar Energy and Its Uses
Fossil fuels are limited resources, and as indicated by the peak oiltheory, the world oil production will begin to decrease after reaching apeak and oil reserves will ﬁnally be depleted. It is therefore impossible
to continue to follow a lifestyle depending on fossil fuels for morethan 100 years from now, and we must implement measures to moveaway from our present fossil fuel-dependent society. Speciﬁcally, wemust aim to stop depending on fossil fuels and achieve a sustainable
society that is based on the use of solar energy.
Figure 28 shows in what form is the solar energy reaching the

Figure 28 Uses of Solar Energy
Solar energy, after reaching
the Earth, changes itself into
various forms which we use in
our lives.

Surface radiationenergy:9 trillion kcal
x 1010 /second
Motion energy (wind, waves,and ocean currents):
88 billion kcal/second (0.2%)

Solar energy reaching the Earth:
42 trillion kcal/second (100%)

Radiated into space:
12 trillion kcal/second(about 30%)

Solar energy absorbed by the land surface

Tidal force:
700 million
kcal/second

Accumulated under the sea:
10 trillion kcal/second (23%)

Changed to heat on
the land surface

Photosynthesis:
9.6 billion kcal/second(0.02%)

Energy density
on the land surface:
About 0.2 kcal/second, m2

Geothermal heat:
7.7billion kcal/second

Source: Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association

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Part 2 Conditions for Survival 135

Earth is transformed into and used. As shown, various forms ofenergy are utilized to support nature and the lives of living beings
including mankind.
The amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth in an hour is
far larger than the amount of energy consumed by the whole world
in a year. After reaching the planet, solar energy is transformed
into heat on the land and sea surfaces, and a very small portion of
it becomes energy sources which generate wind, waves, and ocean
currents. It is also used by plants for photosynthesis and stored as
biomass energy. Fossil fuels are also formed as a result of solar
energy stored underground and can be said to be one of the formsof storing past solar energy.

Table 3 Amount of Solar Energy Reaching the EarthAmount of energy(tons in oil equivalent)

Sunlight
Solar energy irradiated onto the Earth: 174 PW
Practically available solar energy: 1 PW1）
7.53×105Mtoe

Available solar energy (per year)
The World s annual supply of primary energy (2008)

Fossil fuels
Oil

Reserves (2007)
1237.9 billion barrels2）

1.68×105Mtoe

Coal

847.5 billion tons

5.87×105Mtoe

Natural gas

177 trillion m32）

1.84×105Mtoe

Uranium2）

5.47 million tons
Total energy reserves

1）Energy Policy (1991) : pp. 386-391, B. Sorensen
2）Statistical Review of World Energy 2008, BP3）Uranium 2007, OECD/NEA-IAEA

136

0.12×105Mtoe

3）

0.75×105Mtoe
10.14×105Mtoe

If we can make more efﬁcient use of solar energy, we should be
able to live without depending on fossil fuels. A society in which
we can really achieve this is a sustainable society that is based on
the use of solar energy.
Table 3 compares the amount of energy provided by sunlightand by fossil fuels in oil equivalents. If mankind can use ca. 0.5
percent of the solar energy reaching the Earth, that would amountto be 7.53 x 105 Mtoe(41) annually. This is almost equivalent to
the energy held in the reserves of energy resources such as fossil
fuels and uranium (10.14 x 105 Mtoe) and more than 60 times
the energy provided by the primary energy sources that we use
annually. As such, the amount of solar energy reaching the Earthis gigantic.

(2) Solar Energy and the Sustainable Society
In the sustainable society based on the use of solar energy, most of
the energy required for our daily living is supposed to be provided
by the solar energy reaching the Earth. We intend to build a societythat will change our lifestyles and socioeconomic structures
dramatically by aiming to make proactive and efﬁcient use of thesolar energy available across the globe, rather than just creating a
low-carbon society.
We think that unless we realize a sustainable society basedon the use of solar energy within the next 100 years, we cannot
fundamentally solve the global warming problems nor solve theproblem of resources. It might be very difficult for an ordinary
person on the street to have a clear vision of a solar energy-basedsociety now. A sustainable society based on the use of solar energy

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 137

grids and with installation of superconductive power transmission
systems. We assume also a society that has achieved effective
use of energy through power storage technologies such as highly
efﬁcient storage batteries.
One requirement for building a sustainable society based on theuse of solar energy is that we substantially change our lifestyles sothat we can make efﬁcient use of solar energy. And further, everyonein the society is assumed to fully recognize the value of the blessingsof the Sun and nature. Even now, we receive many blessings fromthe Sun in our lives, but we seldom are conscious of or feel gratefulfor those blessings. In order to achieve a sustainable society basedon the use of solar energy, it is essential that all members of thesociety nourish a spirit that values the blessings of the Sun.

Figure 29 Requirements for a Sustainable Society Based on the
Use of Solar Energy

Figure 30 Vision of a Solar Energy-Based Society

Effective use of energy
resources other than fossil fuels- Use of renewable energy sources (sunlight, wind power,
hydraulic power, tidal power, and geothermal heat)- Utilization of nuclear power- Minimizing energy losses by the use of advanced power
storage, distribution and transmission technologies(Superconductor power transmission, highly
efficient storage batteries, etc.)

Lifestyles thatmake efficient useof solar energy- Selection of energy-saving
products- Use of public transportation- Environment-friendly
lifestyles (Being mindful insaving energy, etc.)

Sustainable society
based on the use ofsolar energy

Effective use ofsolar energy inindustry- Reform of production
systems (Pursuit of higher
manufacturing efficiency andzero emissions)- Reform of transportation
methods (Modal shift andgreen logistics)

Recognition and use of theblessings of the Sun and nature in
every region

Use of energy

is built upon realizing the following measures as shown in ﬁgure
29: use of energy resources other than fossil fuels; introduction of
production systems and lifestyles that will make efficient use ofsolar energy; and recognition and use of the blessings of the Sun
and nature in all regions of the Earth.
In a sustainable society based on the use of solar energy,
people will make extensive use of renewable energy sources,
including sunlight, solar heat, wind and hydraulic power, biomass,
geothermal heat, and tidal power. To build such a society, we needto make a dramatic social transformation. On the technologicalfront, we assume a society that has made substantial technologicalinnovation, raised our power distribution efﬁciency and minimizedenergy losses during power transmission with the use of smart

Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
sources
2001

After 100 years

Realization of a solar energy-based society- Effective use of fuels other than fossil fuels- Lifestyles that use solar energy efficiently- Efficient use of solar energy in industry- Recognizing and utilizing the blessings of the Sun andnature in all regions- Energy mix based on regional characteristics- Environmental conservation for the utilizationof renewable energy (Coexistence)

138

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 139

There are many issues to be solved in realizing a sustainable
society based on the use of solar energy, but by setting a long-termtarget date of 100 years from now, we have a realistic chance of
succeeding. It is vital that we formulate a design for the future fullof ideas and begin implementing them from today.
We cannot build a solar energy-based society overnight: it is an
ideal image of a society 100 years from now. Figure 30 illustrates
an image on the energy front for such a society. To realize sucha society, it will require long-term and large-scale innovations intechnological developments and in the transformation of our social
institutions. That will take a long time, and we must start preparing
from now step by step. Until such a society is established, we will
have to continue to depend on fossil fuels and nuclear power forenergy, and must devise better ways of supplying and using energy
in the transition period.
Further development of renewable energy technologies

Technological development of renewable energy sources, suchas sunlight, solar heat, wind power, hydraulic power, biomass,
geothermal heat, and tidal power is continuing across the world.
In Japan too, universities, research institutes, and companies
are actively promoting research, and they are supporting R&D
demonstration and field tests, the introduction and promotion of
new energy sources and the technology of energy conservation.
There is a range of renewable energy technologies, some of which
are now in the R&D phase and some soon to be commercialized,
and they are all expected to help reduce or eliminate CO2 emissions.
They are, however, expensive and have not yet prevailed. It is
expected that further technological development will raise theenergy conversion efficiency of renewable energy sources, which

140

will help boost their commercialization.
In order to realize and sustain a solar energy-based society, justdeveloping renewable energy technologies will not be sufficient.
Renewable energy technologies such as solar power generation andwind power generation are inherently variable that power output
varies greatly with weather and/or sunshine conditions. So, toeffectively distribute electricity generated from those sources, it isnecessary to develop technologies to store the generated electricity
and to distribute electricity without ﬂuctuations in output. Among
those innovative electricity storage technologies, there is one thatwould signiﬁcantly raise the efﬁciency of existing storage batteries,
such as the use of carbon superﬁne particles in lithium secondary
batteries, and another that would store the electricity obtained fromsolar photovoltaic power generation in superconductive ﬂywheels
during the day and then supply the stored electricity during thenight. Hydrogen is used to generate electricity in a fuel cell, andis another means to store electricity, and thus technologies tomanufacture, transport, and store hydrogen are regarded as key
technologies in its utilization.
As an innovative power transmission and distribution
technology, there is the superconductive high efficiency powertransmission system that uses high-temperature superconductive
materials. If these materials become available at more reasonable
prices, it will become possible to establish a power transmission
system around the globe. Under such a system, power generated
in the Sahara Desert could be transmitted to Asia and electricity
generated from sunlight could be used without worrying about
the changes in weather and sunshine hours. In addition, smart
grids that use IT technologies would make it possible to distributeelectricity more efﬁciently by responding to changes in the amountPart 2 Conditions for Survival 141

of power generated effectively.
In developing new technologies, it is important to pay
attention not only to technologies that are almost certain to becommercialized in the near future, but also to basic research infuture technologies that could come into use a century fromnow. Technological development should be conducted from thelong-term viewpoint of sustaining a global society even for thosefor whom progress in research has not been easy to achieve due
to extreme difficulty. Such technologies include the use of solar
energy in space, nuclear fusion technologies, and superconductive
power transmission technologies.
Great innovations in science and technology are needed tomove away from a lifestyle depending on fossil fuels. To this end,
we need to create a new science and technology that will not only
pursue short-term industrial beneﬁts but also the long-term beneﬁts
for the whole Earth. It is true that highly effective and efficienttechnologies could be developed even in the short term throughcompetition in the market. But to create science and technologythat can contribute to sustaining the Earth and mankind, it isessential for governments to promote research and development
and supply the necessary funding for them based on clear policies
with firm intent, and it is evaluation from a long-term viewpointthat will result in beneﬁcial fruitions.
Improving and upgrading existing energy technologies●

Full-fledged energy conservation andthe global prevalence of energy conservation technologies

In preventing global warming, it is important not only to promote
the use of renewable energy technologies but also to change oursociety into one that does not waste energy. In order to achieve

142

that, we must have energy conservation technologies that prevail
across the world.
To conserve energy, it is important to increase the total
efficiency of the energy consumption system. To build such asystem requires promoting the use of energy and resources in acascade and having multifunctional production processes. It isalso important to establish a flexible energy supply system that
supplies energy according to the quality of electricity requiredby classifying products into those that need a stable supply ofhigh-quality electricity such as information devices, and thosethat do not need a stable supply. Energy conservation could bedone most effectively when it is done at locations near to the ﬁnal
consumption site, and thus it is important to promote this type ofenergy conservation steadily and continuously.
Energy conservation technologies are currently being developedin various countries across the world, and it is important for theinternational community to continue pursuing the development ofthese technologies to build a sustainable society based on the useof solar energy. The technologies thus developed need not only be
used in the developed countries but also have to be transferred todeveloping countries for global prevalence. Developing countries
will build more social infrastructure to achieve further economic
development. Once large facilities, such as power plants andironworks are constructed, it will be difﬁcult to replace them withnew ones, even if the facilities initially constructed are not very
energy-efﬁcient. It is therefore important for those facilities to bebuilt using the most efficient and advanced energy conservation
technologies, and that is why technology transfer to developing
countries must be hastened. By accelerating the introduction ofenergy conservation technologies to countries and areas wherePart 2 Conditions for Survival 143

energy efficiency is low, developed countries will be making agreat contribution to the effective use of energy resources and to
reduction of CO2 emissions on a global scale.
For energy conservation technologies to spread globally, it isnecessary to solve the problems related to intellectual property
rights and cost-sharing, but it is also important to build theinfrastructures necessary for developing countries so that they
can accept those technologies, including human, organizational,
and institutional foundations. Developed countries must support
developing countries in establishing infrastructures for themto accept new technologies through international technologicalassistance projects and other means, while ensuring that developing
countries can make continuous use of the transferred technologies
on their own.

and the amount of power generated has increased. Among thedeveloping countries in Asia in particular (China, India, etc.), toachieve the stable supply of energy necessary to support economic
growth, it is forecast that there will be a signiﬁcant expanse in the
introduction of nuclear power generation.
However, there are still issues to be resolved in using nuclear
power. The safe and peaceful use of nuclear power plants should
be ensured and appropriate measures should be taken to treat
radioactive waste. Unless measures and policies are taken to ensure
full public understanding, effective utilization of nuclear power
will be difﬁcult. For that purpose, along with developing a safe new
nuclear power generation technology, it is necessary to promote
public understanding of its use by establishing international

Effective use of nuclear power

It will still take time before we can rely fully on renewable energy
for our daily lives. During the transition period, we need to makeeffective use of conventional energy sources. Among those energy
sources, nuclear power seems to be potentially the best for the time
being with its huge capacity to supply, even though the cost of
constructing, maintaining, and disassembling a nuclear power plant
is high.
Nuclear power generation does not emit CO2 and could help
mitigate substantially the restrictions that are coming fromresource and environment aspects. Figure 31 shows the trends inthe world s nuclear power generation output. In Europe and in
the Americas, the output from existing nuclear power plants has
been proactively increased and the amount generated is on an
upward trend. In Asia too, the number of nuclear power plants

144

Figure 31 Trends in Nuclear Power Generation in the World (By Region)
trillion kw
3.0
2.5
North America
2.0
Latin
America

1.5
Europe1.0
Former Soviet Union

0.5

Africa

Asia
0.0
1972

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005 2008

Based on Annual Energy Report (2009), Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(Original data: Nuclenonics Week, The McGraw-Hill Companies)

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 145

cooperation among countries for its safe and peaceful use, andby continuing negotiations in the reduction of nuclear weapon
stockpiles. In Prague in April 2009, President Obama of the UnitedStates announced his commitment to nuclear nonproliferationand the elimination of nuclear weapons, which is expected tohelp promote international discussion on the peaceful use andinternational management of nuclear power. For the further use of
nuclear power, comprehensive research into its safe and peacefuluse, and provision of talented human resources who can support its
use are the most important challenges.
Effective use of fossil fuels

Fossil fuels account for about 80 percent of our primary energy
supply currently and will remain the most important energy source
on a short- to medium-term basis. Until we achieve a sustainable
society based on the use of solar energy, we cannot help but todepend on fossil fuels; but we should do so by choosing methods
that minimize emissions of CO 2. For example, we can reduce
CO2 emissions, even with the continuing use of fossil fuels by
the following methods: increasing the use of natural gas, whichhas per-unit CO2 emissions that are smaller than for oil and coal;
adopting coal gasiﬁcation technologies in using coal and increase
efﬁciency compared to conventional coal ﬁred power generation,
thereby substantially reducing CO2 emissions; and introducing acogeneration system, which generates steam using waste heat frompower generation, and uses the generated steam to increase theenergy efﬁciency and reduce CO2 emissions. In this way, we canreduce CO2 emissions by adopting technologies that make betteruse of fossil fuels. Another promising option to reduce carbon is todevelop carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to capture146

and store the CO2 generated in addition to improving the electric
power generation efﬁciency.
There are still technological problems to be solved with CCS,
including those related to the behavior of stored CO2 and its impact
on the environment. In promoting the technology, it is therefore
essential that more feasibility studies be conducted to assess its
environmental impact and safety, which will in turn help improve
public acceptance of the technology.
Examples of the effective use of solar energy

Various international organizations are proposing images andconcepts for building the ultimate sustainable society based on theuse of solar energy.
For example under the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems
Programme ( IEA PVPS ) , ( 42 ) which consists of 19 countries
including Japan, the United States, European countries, and twoorganizations, an international project to look into the possibilityof installing a very large scale photovoltaic system (VLS-PV) withan output of 100,000 to 1 million kW in unutilized land such asa desert is now under way. This project (IEA PVPS Task 8), forwhich Japan serves as the Organizing Agent, published a reporton its activities titled Energy from the Desert in September 2009and in the report proposed a VLS-PV roadmap, a super long-term
future vision for 2100. The roadmap was made in reference to a
scenario proposed by the German Advisory Council on Climate
Change that two-thirds of the world s primary power will comefrom solar energy by 2100. The roadmap proposes to cover onethird of our energy needs with solar photovoltaic power generation
and another one-third with solar thermal power generation.
There is also an industrial initiative, known as the DESERTECPart 2 Conditions for Survival 147

Figure 32 DESERTEC Industrial Initiative

EuropeArea of land used forsolar thermal power
generation
Across the world(2005)

Solar
thermalHydraulicSolarphotovoltaic

BiomassWind

Geothermal heat

North Africa

EU (2005)
Middle East and North Africa (2005)
Middle East and North Africa (2050)

Based on reference materials provided by the DESERTEC Foundation (http://www.desertec.org/)

Figure 33 Sahara Solar Breeder Plan
Oran
Alexandria
Solar photovoltaic power plant
The Sahara
The Nile
Desert SiO2
Wood

Solar photovoltaic
power plant

Solar Breeder
Solar photovoltaic power plant

Constructing silicon factories
and photovoltaic power plants
in a multiplicative manner (to be
doubled every two years) for theeffective use of desert sand andsunlight

Solving problems related to
output variations and electricity
storage at photovoltaic power
plants by establishing a hightemperature superconductive
direct transmission network on
a global scale

Industrial Initiative, on which agreement was reached on July13, 2009 by 12 leading companies in Europe including Siemens
and Deutsche Bank to promote the use of solar energy. As shownin figure. 32, this project is intended to supply 15 percent of theelectricity demand in Europe by transmitting power generated atlarge-scale solar thermal power generation facilities built in the
Sahara Desert and other locations at a total cost of 400 billion
Euros.
There is also a very ambitious proposal named the Sahara Solar
Breeder (SSB) Plan, which is based on the assumption that if there
comes a time when solar energy utilization technology and power
distribution technologies using superconductivity make further
progress, it will become possible to build solar photovoltaic power
generation facilities in the desert and meet the global demand forelectricity. In the G8 academic summit held in Rome in March
2009, the Science Council of Japan proposed the Sahara Solar
Breeder (SSB) Plan towards establishing a global clean energy
superhighway (Fig. 33). This plan aims to generate electricity
from solar cells installed around the Sahara. The solar cells will
be manufactured using some of the generated electricity and silica
sand available in infinite amounts in the desert. If implemented,
it will enable the multiplicative production of solar cells using
surplus electricity. The electricity generated by the solar cells
will be supplied to the surrounding areas to improve the living
standards of the local people, and eventually the electricity will be
supplied all over the world through a superconductive network.
This is a gargantuan project.

Source: Based on the support materials for Press Conference of President
Dr. Kanazawa of the Science Council of Japan

148

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 149

3 Changing Lifestyles(1) Our lifestyles need to change
It is we humans that have caused the present global environmental
problems. Therefore unless human beings change their traditional
ways of thinking and lifestyles there will be no solution to theglobal environmental problems. Thanks to the development ofscience and technology and the market economy, our life has
become materially rich and has improved in its convenience.
However, this wealth and convenience are supported by consuming
vast amounts of resources and energy and releasing large amountsof waste(43) into the environment. In fact we need to consume
resources and energy to sustain our lives, but when it becomes
excessive, then vast amounts of waste are generated, causing
damage to nature. Excess use of resources will at the same time
accelerate their depletion. Unless we change our current lifestyles,
our resources will run out and the global environment will
deteriorate, and we will lose the foundation for our survival. We
need to re-recognize that we should stop pursuing material wealthneedlessly and that what is important is the wealth of the spirit.
For most of us when we review our present lifestyles, it could
be said that we may not be conscious enough of the fact that ourlives depend on the blessings of nature. In fact, however, wedepend on nature s rich biodiversity for our food, clothes, andhousing. When agricultural land is expanded to produce more food,this contributes to a loss of biodiversity. Land has been developed
to produce food and feedstuffs, tropical rain forests have been
cut down for pastureland and to produce palm oil, and mangrove

150

forests have been cleared to produce shrimps. As a result, we arefacing a loss of biodiversity. Moreover, because of ﬁshing methods
that do not address sustainability of fish species, populations oflarge ﬁsh species have been decreasing.
A lot of energy is consumed by industry and also by us in our
individual lives. In Japan, household energy consumption has
been steadily increasing, and compared to when the ﬁrst oil crisis
occurred 35 years ago, consumption has more than doubled. It is
now time for us to seek a way to curb our energy consumption
without sacriﬁcing the convenience and comfort of our lives. As a

Figure 34 Effect of Higher Efﬁciency at the Downstream End
Fuel energy
input (coal):
100 units

Energy output:
9.5 units
Transmission
and
Motor
distribution losses: Drivetrain
losses: 10 percent losses:
Pump
9 percent2 percent losses: Throttle
Power plant
25
percent losses:
Pipelosses:33 percent losses:
70 percent
20 percent
Reference: Effect of Higher Efficiency at the Downstream End by Dr. Amory B. Lovins
From the power plant to an industrial pipe, inefficiencies along the way whittle the energy input of thefuel̶set at 100 arbitrary units in this example̶by more than 90 percent, leaving only 9.5 units of energy
delivered as fluid flow through the pipe. But small increases in end-use efficiency can reverse thesecompounding losses. For instance, saving one unit of output energy by reducing friction inside the pipe
will cut the needed fuel input by 10 units. The effect of saving at the downstream end is thus huge. Also, it
becomes possible to make all the upstream components smaller and simpler.

Source: Based on a lecture given by Dr. Amory Lovins at the time he received the 2007 Blue Planet Prize

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 151

ﬁrst step towards a solar energy-based society, we must change ourlifestyles as individuals and as households.
The importance of using energy more efficiently throughchanging lifestyles has been made clear theoretically. Dr. Amory
B. Lovins, who is an energy scientist, has been insisting on theimportance of energy conservation by consumers at the downstream
end from the viewpoint of resource use efﬁciency and improving
economical operation through optimization of the entire supply
system (Fig. 34). For example, in the supply of electricity, as a lotof electrical energy is lost before it reaches the user, if the end user
consumes the electricity delivered more efficiently, it will lead to
substantial energy conservation across the entire supply system.
Further, by saving electricity and contributing to improving thesystem s efﬁciency, consumers will also increase their awareness of
the importance of resource conservation.
As Lovins indicates, energy conservation at the downstream
end is important. Changing our lifestyles is one solution to global
environmental problems that we can start now, and if all people in
the world change their lifestyles for the better, the effect will behuge. Therefore, in order to realize a solar energy-based society, it
is indispensable that we change our lifestyles.

(2) What Should We Seek in Future Lifestyles
What is wrong with our present lifestyles and how should wechange them? As we have discussed, our lives, rich in material
wealth and high in convenience, are supported by mass production,
mass consumption, and mass disposal, and they are having adamaging impact on nature. What has led us into such mass-

152

producing and mass-consuming lives? Can we say that thefundamental cause of such a way of life is that we set off a trend
where we humans began to lose consideration for nature andfor others and came to think only about themselves and to notcare for others? Was it a result of excessive individualism andintensive market competition formed in the course of meeting ourmaterial requirements? These trends seemed to spread not only
in our individual lives but also in our corporate activities leading
individuals or corporations to focus only on pursuing proﬁt just forthemselves or for their companies
The individual pursuit of profit, however, has not brought
optimal profits to the globe as a whole and has instead caused
global environmental problems, making people aware of the
ﬁniteness of the Earth and triggered a global crisis.
We must create a solar energy-based society on the Earth where
things have limits, so that all living beings including mankind canlive to have vibrant lives. For that, we must lead our daily lives
and conduct our business activities in harmony with nature. It is
important when using energy and resources to appreciate them as
the blessings of nature. And for humans who should support suchthinking need to recognize that they can only sustain their lives
thanks to nature and that they are supported by its blessings. Oncethey firmly stand on such ideas, the spirit of consideration forothers and for nature will be brought forth and the importance ofcooperation rather than competition will be recognized.
It is not very constructive to try to go back to the lifestylesof 50 years ago to reduce the damaging impact to nature of oursocioeconomic activities by sacriﬁcing the standard of living that
we are now enjoying. We must review our lifestyles with a new
way of thinking, discovering happiness in life with wealth of thePart 2 Conditions for Survival 153

spirit, such as in cultural activities, instead of in material wealth.
Then we will be able to ﬁnd pleasure in touching others feelings
and warmth, in valuing beautiful things and things with harmony
and balance. In the past in Japan, the spiritual mentality of having
few wants or not wasting anything: MOTTAINAI prevailed.
Would it not be meaningful to revisit those values? A solar energybased society will be realized by spreading new lifestyles in society
based on values that are different from those of the past which
pursued material wealth.
What should we do speciﬁcally to lead lives that are in harmony
with nature, making better use of energy and resources as theblessings of nature? The United Nations Environment Programme
launched its Sustainable Consumption and Production ( SCP )initiative to change people s lifestyles, in particular in the aspects
of production and consumption. SCP is defined as the use ofservices and related products which respond to basic needs andbring a better quality of life while minimizing the use of natural
resources and toxic materials as well as the emissions of waste andpollutants over the life-cycle so as not to jeopardize the needs offuture generations. The initiative is intended to target economic
development that will not result in more environmental pollution
or the depletion of resources by improving patterns of consumption
and production based on the concept of SCP. One of the speciﬁc
measures we can take based on the idea of SCP is to spread the
3Rs, which are: reduce, reuse, and recycle waste to minimize thegeneration of waste and make effective use of resources to build
a recycling-oriented society. Measures to implement the 3Rs havealready been adopted mainly in the developed countries, where
governments, companies, and citizens cooperate in constructing
social systems to recover and sort/disassemble wastes as well as

154

to recycle resources, and dispose of the remaining waste in an
appropriate manner. Speciﬁcally, citizens are requested to pursue
a way of life that minimizes the amount of waste generated
from their households, and to cooperate in making effective useof second-hand products, and in the sorted recovery of waste
for efficient recycling. On the production side, manufacturers
are required to supply easily recyclable products, products thatwill consume only a small amount of resources and energy, andproducts that contain few hazardous substances.（44）We need to understand the signiﬁcance of building a recyclingoriented society, including the 3Rs, and review our behavior as
consumers by having consideration for nature. In addition, we are
expected to adopt consumption behaviors which choose products
and services that will minimize the use of resources and hazardous
substances as well as the emissions of waste and pollutants,
because this kind of selective behavior by consumers will provide
the driving force for the reform of manufacturing methods andimprovement of ﬁnal products.

(3) Education to Change Our Lifestyles
We are now enjoying materially rich lives thanks to economic
development, but are we really happy? To realize a solar energybased society, we must ﬁrst understand that it is more important tobe spiritually rich than to be materially rich. Education will play animportant role in encouraging more people to understand that they
can only become really happy by pursuing fulﬁlling spirit and not
through mass consumption.
To change our lifestyles, it is essential to understand how ourPart 2 Conditions for Survival 155

lives are interrelated with the global environment. It is difﬁcult torecognize the importance of global environmental problems in our
everyday lives, and so we need to obtain the correct informationand learn through education to enable ourselves to make the rightdecisions about global environmental problems. Human beings andthe environment are interrelated in a complex way and there arestill many things unknown to be clariﬁed, and therefore it is crucial
for us to continue to accumulate new knowledge and review how
humans should behave in the natural world. Education on how torealize a society that coexists with nature is something that will
enable us to nurture the ability to make appropriate decisions basedon correct knowledge, and also to review how humans should
behave in the natural world.
At present, the United Nations is implementing an initiative
titled the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable
Development, in order to provide education to encourage changes
that will create a more sustainable future in terms of environmental
integrity, economic viability, and a just society for present andfuture generations. Under this initiative, countries are required
to independently implement measures to integrate the principles,values, and practices of sustainable development into all aspects ofeducation and learning. This concept of education for sustainable
development has much in common with our idea of a solar energybased society which asserts that the entire world is interrelated
and it is necessary to create a society based on cooperation, one inwhich people give consideration for others and nature. Education
for sustainable development does not need to be something
special. What is important is not to provide a lot of informationor knowledge through education but to encourage individuals todevelop the ability to collect the information they need, study that156

information, think independently to take the appropriate decisions,act based on those decisions, and review their behavior.

(4) Establishing a System to Promote

Our Lifestyle Change

Providing people with opportunities to deepen their knowledge
through environmental education and learning would not lead them
directly into changing their lifestyles. The fact is that althoughpeople understand the importance of changing their lifestyles, itdoes not necessarily lead them to take action. In order for themto take action based on the understanding, it is also important toprovide people with opportunities for them to actually practice theaction. Providing more information and introducing more eventson environmental conservation activities led by local communities
and environmental activities conducted by various NGOs could
enhance the systems for cooperation between governments,
citizens, companies, and NGOs and provide relevant information
to citizens. This will make it possible for them to become involvedin environmental activities more easily.
It is also effective to encourage the use of certiﬁcation labels/
systems for products and business activities or to provide
information on them, such as eco-labels and certiﬁcation systems
for environmental management systems. For example, we canconsciously choose to purchase foodstuffs that have certification
labels that identify them as fair trade products(45) or as eco-friendly
marine products.(46) Also for products made from wood, we needto choose certified products(47) as much as possible. If a greaternumber of people purchase and use certiﬁed products, it will help

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 157

create a society that cares about living beings. In order to promote
the movement, it is vital that the certiﬁcation systems are veriﬁed
on scientiﬁc grounds and can be relied upon by the consumer.
In addition to those already mentioned, environmental taxes,
eco points, and offset, deposit, eco-fund, and regional currency
systems are being studied and implemented as economic
mechanisms to encourage people to change their behavior. It is
important to ensure that these systems will work effectively in linewith regional characteristics and eventually on a global scale.

158

4 A Vibrant Society Full of Diversity andCharacterized by Cooperation
between Urban and Rural Areas
As we have discussed, in the 20th century, urbanization took place
globally and the society became one that mass consumes energy
and resources, and it is now facing limits in a range of fields. In
the process of urbanization, we have become disconnected fromnature which is the foundation for us as biological beings, while
our lifestyles have become excessively individualized, making
interpersonal communications more difficult. As a result, bothindividuals and society at large have been losing vigor, which isperhaps a negative aspect of urban lifestyles. With the spread of urban
lifestyles, opportunities to make contact with nature and interpersonalcommunications have been decreasing even in rural areas.
Both urban and rural areas which are facing the sameproblems should aim to become a solar energy-based society, be acooperative society that sets nature as its foundation and cares forothers and for nature. To this end, both in urban and rural areas, it
is important to build a society where energy supply systems basedon solar energy are introduced, nature is restored and conserved,
and local inhabitants are provided with abundant opportunities tocommunicate and participate in social events. Although urban andrural areas have different features, it is also important to establish
a relationship that will enable the vigor of both to be exhibited
through cooperation making use of their individual features. With
the increase in opportunities to have contact with nature and tocommunicate, both nature and humanity will be revitalized, andsociety will be transformed into one ﬁlled with diversity and vigor.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 159

160(1) Urban and Rural Areas Full of Vigor and Diversity

Development of vibrant cities

In the 20th century, cities were areas where people, industry andthe economy concentrated to be centers for economic, logistic
and industrial activities and came to serve an important roleas strongholds to pursue higher efficiency and functionality.
However, cities became places where a lot of energy and resourceswere consumed, and with their growth, the natural environment
was replaced by artificial structures and they gradually became
disconnected and isolated from nature. With too much focus put
on industrial and economic functions, isn t it the case in most cities
that people living and working there tend to have less chance ofcoming to feel nature close at hand or are even forced to have an
unpleasant life? Furthermore, due to economic globalization andthe spread of uniform urban lifestyles, not only biological diversity,
but also human and regional diversity is being lost and now the
dynamism of our cities is on the decline.
On the other hand, rural areas have been designated as places tosupply agricultural products for food and a labor force to support
economic development in urban areas. Forests were felled to expand
farmland in the price competition for agricultural products based on
economic principles, and the soil has become degraded due to theoveruse of fertilizers and agricultural pesticides in pursuit of higher
productivity. The natural environment that remained cannot be
managed adequately due to the shortage of human resources, and as
a result, impoverishment in rural areas is now signiﬁcant.
The concept of a solar energy-based society which we areproposing here entails the creation of urban and rural areas full of
diversity and vigor by restoring the relationship between humanbeings and nature.

Given that a lot of energy and resources are consumed in cities,
in order to realize a solar energy-based society, it is necessary tochange city infrastructure to one that is supported by solar energy
and the blessings from nature created by the sun. To make this kindof change, in addition to fully utilizing renewable energy sources,
such as sunlight, wind power, and biomass, with the use of highly
efficient energy devices and by conserving energy by adopting
highly heat-insulating materials for buildings, the efficiency inthe use of energy and resources must be raised individually. And
in the long run, it also becomes necessary to raise efficiency bychanging the urban infrastructure, which could be achieved by
implementing the following measures: controlling trafﬁc demandby shortening the distance between residential and business areasand promoting the use of land for multiple purposes; raising theefficiency of transportation systems by measures such as modal
mix; and establishing and improving a system for the circulativeuse of resources and energy.
Realization of a solar energy-based city where energy andresources are used in an efficient manner without waste will
provide a model for the creation of an energy- and resourceefﬁcient community.

● Structural transformation to build a solar energy-based city

● Creation of a “nature corridor” as a core component of a solar energy-based city

When a solar energy-based society is established in a city, that will
not only help conserve the global environment, but will also enablecitizens to lead diversiﬁed and vigorous lives by being an integral
part of nature. By having more frequent contact with nature, people
who live there can recover their humanity and feelings to give
more support to each other.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 161

162

In building a solar energy-based city, to reintroduce nature
into a city, creating a nature corridor as a core component of
the city structure would be an effective way. For example, naturalrivers and lakes located in the city could be improved to recreate
continuous habitats that extend to the ocean to provide living space
for aquatic organisms. At the same time, green areas and parks
could also be improved to connect the green forests and woods
that had been isolated, so that creatures living in the mountains andhilly areas can also live in the city. In these ways, it will become
possible to create a city where people can come in contact with thenatural world.

Cities in which citizens are actively making new exchanges andcreating new communities by taking the initiative in activities toconserve and use the green environment will play an importantrole, not only as efficient and vigorous centers of industrial andeconomic activities, but also as cultural centers and attractive
residential areas. People will be able to build relationships of trust
and lead fulﬁlling and comfortable lives by being in contact withnature in their daily lives.

● Solar energy-based city where people can communicate and collaborate● Creating a model for a solar energy-based local community

A solar energy-based society is where people respect each otherand is a society rich in diversity and vigor. For people to continue
to enjoy the great blessings of nature, it is necessary to face nature
with consideration in mind, and to build relationships of trustwith each other. In an urban society where efﬁciency is overvalued,
it is all the more important for people to trust each other. Cites
could be revitalized to provide a home for a humane and vigorous
society if interpersonal relationships in the city are strengthened andcommunities are established where people can actively participate
in urban development. People will have various opportunities toparticipate in the society by making new exchanges and establishingnew communities, and then individuals will become more vigorous
through their participation in the society.
If cities introduce and manage environmental activities, suchas forestation, gardening, and the creation of parks in which theircitizens can participate, it will help restore and build nature within
the cities and will also provide citizens with opportunities to makenew exchanges and communities through voluntary activities.

In realizing a solar energy-based society, it is essential tomaximize the use of renewable energy sources, particularly
the use of solar energy, as already mentioned. Rural areas haveabundant natural resources, including not only sunlight but also
wind power, medium and small hydraulic power, biomass, andother renewable energy sources. In addition, these areas havelarge tracts of land and they therefore meet all the conditions forusing energy resources effectively. Because rural areas are notas densely populated as cities, with people living dispersed overa wide area, it will bring great advantages for them to adopt a
distributed and independent energy supply system using renewableenergy sources.
From a long-term viewpoint, it is extremely important to regard
rural areas as model areas for the maximum use of renewableenergy sources and develop them into sustainable energy societiesthat do not impose a load on nature.

Creation of a Sustainable Natural Resource
Circulation Regional Zone

● Expectations for Sustainable Natural Resource Circulation Regional Zone

In a solar energy-based society, the natural environment is highlyPart 2 Conditions for Survival 163

valued as an essential foundation for the lives of human beings andother living beings. Rural areas, especially agricultural communities,
are blessed with precious natural environments. Agriculturalcommunities play an important role in producing the goods andservices for people to meet their requirements for food, clothing,and housing by utilizing the natural environment. At the same time,
the natural environment, on the other hand, is a capital that should
be maintained and utilized by the whole of the society, and thus
the agricultural communities are expected to serve an importantrole in conserving the precious natural environment through theirsocioeconomic activities and community building efforts.
However, it is economically difficult for a rural area or anagricultural community on its own to bear the responsibility forconserving the natural environment. It is also necessary for cities
to share the burden of nature conservation, based on the idea thatthe natural environment is a common asset for the whole society.
For example, watershed taxes are designed to impose proportionate
burdens on users of river water to protect nature in watershedareas for the purpose of conserving nature in the waterhead area
for sustainable water use. The taxes collected are used to maintainand manage the forests which serve an important role in watershed
protection. Supplying food through agriculture could be considered
as an act utilizing the natural environment, and thus it could beconsidered appropriate for urban dwellers to bear a portion of the costof maintaining the natural environment to produce and supply food.
In the future, it will become important to establish a system
for urban and rural areas to share the burden of maintaining thenatural environment appropriately as a common asset of the society.
It is also important to create a Sustainable Natural Resource
Circulation Regional Zone as a scheme to conserve the natural

164

environment through cooperation between urban and rural areas. A
Sustainable Natural Resource Circulation Regional Zone meansa zone comprising a core city and the surrounding agriculturaland nature-rich areas, which are strongly linked economically andthrough nature. By establishing such a zone, it will become possible
to manage the entire region in a comprehensive manner. And bypromoting the viewpoint of utilizing nature s blessings effectively
in the zone, it will also become possible to establish a society where
local natural resources and renewable energy resources are used inharmony with nature.
● Revitalizing local communities

Before modernization, people lived in the same areas for generations,
supporting and helping each other based on shared values. Due tothe development of cities following modernization, people living inrural areas, in particular younger people, moved to urban areas towork, which resulted in the decline of vitality in rural areas.
In order to incorporate rural areas into a Sustainable Natural
Resource Circulation Regional Zone and transform them to
be more attractive, it is first necessary to encourage young
people, who should play a central role, not to leave the area forthe city. But younger people should not be forced socially or
psychologically to make that decisions. They must decide on theirown to choose a life in an agricultural community and practiceagriculture while protecting the natural environment as a fulﬁlling
way to live. This would be possible only if urban and rural areas
cooperated and if cities were willing to share the economic burdenwith rural areas for that purpose. It is only when such an economic
support system for rural area by the cities is built and the system
functions, that it becomes possible for people in rural areas tolive in nature and for urban and rural areas together to form aPart 2 Conditions for Survival 165

(2) Cooperation in Creating an Independent

Sustainable Natural Resource
Circulation Regional Zone

As the solar energy-based society sets the natural environment as asocial capital for all of mankind, it relieves people from the dilemmathat their activities may damage the foundation of their own living.
Rural areas are rich in nature and their economic activities are basedon uses of the natural environment such as agriculture. As the naturalenvironment is a socially common capital, it can be thought that rural
areas are being entrusted with preserving the capital by the wholeof the society. If some rural area finds it difficult to sustain itself
economically, and still maintain the capital of the natural environment
entrusted by the whole society, it is necessary to support the area s
economic activity through cooperation with cities and other rural areas(Fig. 35). Through cooperation, rural and agricultural communities
will be able to form a Sustainable Natural Resource Circulation
Regional Zone, and this could be an effective means of creating a
regional community capitalizing on its unique local resources.
In their efforts to create a solar energy-based society basedon their respective features, urban and rural areas are expected tofulfill the following roles: cities are expected to provide people
with places where they can lead fulﬁlling and vigorous lives andrural areas will provide nature-rich and attractive residential areas.
Through exchanges and cooperation between urban and rural areas,

166

both cities and agricultural communities will be able to create
communities that take advantage of their unique characteristics.
And with rural areas becoming more attractive as residential
areas, the flow of people from rural to urban areas will decrease
and might even be reversed. In a solar energy-based society, thegap between urban and rural areas will be narrowed and they will
provide an equally attractive residential environment.

Figure 35 Building a Society Full of Diversity and Vigor through Cooperation
between Urban and Rural Areas
Preventing population
outﬂow

Sustainable Natural Resource Circulation Regional Zone in whichpeople can continuously receive nature s great blessings. This willin turn revitalize local communities in rural areas.

Cities full of vigor

Exchanges andcooperation

Creating a
Sustainable Natural
Resource Circulation
Regional Zone
(attractive residential area)

Inﬂow of people frommetropolitan areas torural areas

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 167

5 Improving the Social System andInternational Cooperation(1) Strong Commitment from Politicians

and Governments

To realize a sustainable society based on the use of solar energy, it
is important to reform our social institutions in addition to making
technological innovations. In changing our social institutions to be
relevant to the environment, it is essential that governments do sowith a strong commitment and with a long-term vision. All citizens
must take an interest in the politics and actions of their government
and participate in the political process that will take concrete
actions in realizing a solar energy-based society. It is imperativethat politicians and governments formulate plans and upholdforward-looking targets from a long-term viewpoint and promote
them by implementing various measures. Moreover, they are
expected to set R&D targets in realizing a sustainable society andto help universities, research institutes, and corporations to develop
the base technologies as well as other important technologies
necessary to attain their targets.
It is also vital that governments implement specific measuresthat will lead to building a sustainable society based on the useof solar energy. The governments of some countries have already
implemented measures in a range of forms, including both (1)market-based measures such as those that support the installationof the necessary equipment (subsidies, tax breaks, and low-interest
ﬁnancing) and that support the operation of the equipment (quotas,
bidding, feed-in tariffs, and preferential tax treatment systems);168

and (2) other measures such as simplification of administrative
procedures and issuing guidelines. For example in Germany, grid
power suppliers are mandated to purchase all electricity generated
from renewable energy sources which is relatively expensive atfixed prices, and the increased costs are put onto the electricity
charges paid by the general households and companies. In Europe,
the EU launched a regional CO 2 emissions trading system inJanuary 2005, and it has become the world s largest emissions
trading system in which multiple countries are participating.
It must be noted that these measures can be implemented only
when politicians and governments are strongly committed to theimplementation.

(2) International Cooperation in Building a

Solar Energy-Based Society

Global environmental problems are problems that cause damage
to the entire world. In order to solve these problems, it is essential
for countries not to act based on their self interest, but to deal
with them in alliance with the entire world, thereby requiring
international dialogue and cooperation. Among those that could beconsidered are technological, ﬁnancial, and political cooperation.
With regard to technological cooperation, energy conservation
technologies must be further disseminated as discussed before,
and there are also a lot of other technologies that must be spread
across the world. It is important to establish the foundation forinternational technological exchange and build a global framework
for making such exchange so that the world s most advanced
technologies can be introduced to a wide range of areas, while

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 169

giving due consideration to patents and other issues.
Measures to deal with environmental problems tend to be put
off in developing countries due to financial problems or becauseof their national policies to give priority to development. For
developing countries to move forward with anti-global warming
measures and take a step towards realizing a sustainable society
based on the use of solar energy, external financial support isindispensable.
Several various international funds for anti-global warming
measures have already been established, including the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Special Climate Change
Fund. While thinking of a more effective way to use these existingfunding mechanisms, adding additional funding mechanisms will
enhance realizing a solar energy-based society in a global scale.
Professor Hirofumi Uzawa, who won the Blue Planet Prizein 2009, proposes a proportional carbon tax system as a means
to mitigate the gap between the developed and developing
countries. This system is designed to impose carbon tax with
its rate in proportion to the per-capita national income. And
along with imposing the tax, the system is designed to establish
a new International Fund for Atmospheric Stabilization whereparticipating governments contribute a certain percentage of thetax income obtained through the system and then distribute thecontributed money according to certain rules. This proposal isbased on the idea of environmental fairness. Besides this, theInternational Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has proposed the idea of
imposing an international solidarity levy to secure funds to tackle
global environmental problems, and the levy will be imposed on
economic activities beyond national boundaries. At present speciﬁc
taxation methods are being studied, including taxation on currency

170

trading and international transportation activities.
As we have experienced in trying to execute the Kyoto
Protocol, a sustainable society based on the use of solar energy
cannot be achieved without international agreement and politicalcooperation. The problem here is that there is a kick in who caused
the problem and who the victim is. It is the developed countries
that have emitted most of the CO 2 and it is the developing
countries that are usually more vulnerable to damages caused
by global warming. However, if the developed and developing
countries stick to their own interests and try to push through theirown opinions only, global environmental problems will never besolved. We must therefore strongly urge our own countries to act
to make a concerted effort to realize a solar energy-based society
in the entire world. And for our future generations, we have to
make practical moves to realize a solar energy-based society in theentire world, not by having nations sticking to their own interests
but by letting them think about the beneﬁts to the world as a wholeand cooperate regionally, bilaterally, and multilaterally. Moreover,as citizens we must urge the United Nations to reform itself into
an organization that can lead the world to cooperate in realizing asolar energy-based society by encouraging its member states to put
global interests over their own national interests.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 171

Final Chapter

Restoring aVibrant Earth
Realizing the Blue Planet

172

We are now facing a crisis caused by global environmental
problems. The only way to overcome this crisis is to regain
the vibrant Blue Planet through realizing a solar energybased society.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 173

1 Restoring a Vibrant Earth Full of Life
What kind of a future should we go for? Keeping the global
environment sound means that not only humans but all living
beings on Earth will be in existence to lead vibrant lives. It is theduty of the present generation to ensure that by 100 years fromnow the Earth will be restored to such a state. Here we would liketo explain the image of the future we should go for.
Life on Earth would not exist without the Sun. Solar energy
reaching the Earth in vast amounts as sunlight and heat has given
birth to plants, animals, and various other living beings andsupported their lives.
In order to restore a vibrant Earth full of life, we must change
our traditional notion that human beings are special and superior
to other creatures and that we can therefore change the natural
world as we wish and use its resources limitlessly. We must
recognize that human beings are also biological beings who likeall other living beings are in a mutually dependent relationshipwith others and are supported by nature s blessings for their lives.
Human beings are social beings and cannot live alone, separated
from or in confrontation with others. In their human interpersonal
relationships, it is their mutual restricted act to respect each otherand not hurt others positions, which will eventually ensure thatyour own self will be respected and not hurt by others.
In a place where an immense variety of living species including
human beings maintain an appropriate balance in their mutualinterdependence, each and every species can continue to survive
full of vital force. By us humans coming to respect all life on
Earth, it will become possible to avoid any further decrease in the174

diversity of species and gradually the Earth will be able to recoverits vigor in a new balance of the ecosystems. For human beings toreceive nature s blessings in a sustainable manner and pursue theiractivities, it is essential to limit their exploitation of the natural
world to an extent that will not damage the circulation of natural
resources and nature s ability to recover. To meet this requirement,
it is necessary for us human beings to build new socioeconomic
systems based on the idea that we should act in harmony withnature, which mean that our use of water, forests, and land should
be done according to the circulation of nature without hampering
these things. We also need to understand the complex relationshipbetween nature and human beings and review fundamentally howhumans should conduct their activities within the large frameworkprovided by nature.
Let s start from looking at Energy which is indispensable forhuman activities. We proposed a concept of a solar energy-basedsociety. There, as solar energy irradiates the whole of the Earthdaily and as it is an energy source that everyone can use, its use
will cause no change in nature and no damage beyond nature sability to recover. Fossil fuels were also created by accumulating
the blessings of the Sun s energy over geological time. But massconsumption of these fuels in a short time period has caused a risein CO2 concentration in the Earth s atmosphere, which is causing
global warming. From now on, we need to stop relying on fossil
fuels and aim to create a sustainable society based on the use ofsolar energy, which reaches all corners of the globe every day andits blessing is available to everyone.
The concept of a solar energy-based society does not simply
mean a society in which the Sun provides the main energy source.
It also means a society where human activities are conducted inPart 2 Conditions for Survival 175

harmony with nature without damaging the resilience of nature. In
our present societies, people tend to be excessively self-centeredin their relationship both within their families and also outside
their houses, interpersonal ties are becoming weak, and people do
not care about or have enough consideration for others. As people
have fewer opportunities to come in contact with nature, they careless and less about other living beings and nature. It is necessary torebuild a diverse society based on the natural environment full of
diversity and away from a society where interpersonal relationships
have been weakened due to the concentration of populations incities. The society should be transformed into one where people
can mutually support each other through a local community withpeople having contact with nature. With urban and rural areas
cooperating and people in the community collaborating in aiming
for a society full of diversity and vigor in their own areas, a vibrantsolar energy-based society will be realized and the Earth full of life
will be restored.

176

2 New Ideas for a New Age
To restore the Earth full of life, it is important to rebuild a global
society based on new ideas.

(1) Nature Provides the Foundation for Our Lives
Human beings are both social and biological beings. For the
biological being, nature is the foundation of its life, and it lives as atiny part of all living beings within nature. The biological being in
nature is an entity that can not help being inﬂuenced by changes inthe environment.
The activities we are involved in as social beings are causing
the global environmental problems. In the belief that we humans
could replace parts of nature with man-made things to make it more
useful, we have been exploiting, consuming, and wasting natural
resources by utilizing science and technology since the beginningof modernization and industrialization in the 18th century. It can besaid that human beings have thus tried to control and conquer nature.
However, we as biological beings are part of nature and cannot
live unless we act in harmony with it. Now facing global warming,a crisis for the natural environment, we cannot continue to cause
damage to nature which forms the foundation of life for all living
beings. We must recognize the fact that nature provides thefoundation for all life on Earth, and we as biological beings cannot
live without nature. Past economic development lacked such
viewpoint, and it is this that has caused the global environmental
problems.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 177

In order to solve the global environmental problems, it isnecessary not only to review the social institutions and theutilization of science and technology, but also to change the humancentered way of thinking. It is necessary to transform the mind into
one that accepts that humans are just one of the biological species
living and dependent on nature and recognize that maintaining asound natural environment is a prerequisite to our own existence.

(2) Consideration for Others
Present global environmental problems can be said to be a byproduct of the lifestyle of mass production, consumption anddisposal and the mass use of energy and resources supporting them.
In the background of such a lifestyle, there is the human-centeredidea that human beings can control and exploit nature and live ina socioeconomic system that has the recent economic rationalism
and competition-prioritized approach. Competition based on amarket economy can provide creativity and vigor in socioeconomic
activities, but at the same time it can lead to confrontations
between people in the pursuit of self-interest and to hierarchicalrelationships among people, with the strong controlling the weak.
However, needless to say mankind cannot live without theblessings of nature. If humans try to control nature and change
it beyond its ability to recover, there will be an abnormal change
in the ecosystem. When such a change occurs, that will affecthuman beings who form a part of the ecosystem and eventually thesurvival of humans as biological beings will be threatened. Humanbeings are continuing to act in their own interest at the cost ofnature, and that is not only diminishing nature s resilience but also178

threatening the very existence of humankind.
Human beings cannot live without depending on andcooperating with each other. For example in a family, the children
would not be able to survive without the care of their parents. An
agricultural community in the past was a typical social community.
In our present society, however, interpersonal relationships havebecome complicated, with various conﬂicts of interest confronting
each other. However, in this complex society which is becoming
more complex, if many different entities are to live by having
mutual relationships, it will be all the more important to care andhave consideration for others and cooperate mutually, rather thanhave individuals confronting each other. The strong must put
themselves in the shoes of the weak and must show consideration
for the weak, and refrain from doing anything that the weak would
not want. If we care and show consideration for others, they will
someday also show consideration for us and will cooperate.
We need to state once more that the global society as a wholeshould have the idea in common that the human race is just oneof the living beings that live with nature and that unless a soundnatural environment is maintained the foundation for the survivalof mankind will be damaged. Without care and consideration
for a sound natural environment, the survival of mankind is injeopardy. In order to restore the Earth to a planet full of life,
it is necessary to make reforms in the current socioeconomic
systems and interpersonal relationships. For good interpersonal
relationships, it is important to respect one s identity, be minded
to give consideration for others to understand their positions andto cooperate rather than confront each other. We must prevent
confrontation and excessive competition from damaging oursocieties, and move forward to create a vibrant society where there

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 179

is a balance between competitive and cooperative relationships.
What the present generation should consider is not only thenatural environment and the relationship between individuals. They
have to have consideration for others in the bi- and multi-lateralinternational relationships as in between developed and developing
countries and in generational relationship between present andfuture generations.

3 Approaches to Realizing
the “Blue Planet”
The only way to restore the Earth to a planet full of life is tocreate a solar energy-based society by respecting nature createdand maintained by the power of the Sun, and by making solar
originating energy as the major energy source. To this end, we must
live in harmony with nature and live by using sustainable energy
represented by solar energy, which will in turn make it possible forall life on Earth to live vibrantly. Science and technology and thesocial institutions to realize a solar energy-based society must be
those that can live with nature.

(1) Solving Problems by Gathering Wisdomfrom Both Science and Technology and Knowledge
in the Fields of the Human and Social Sciences

Science and technology up to now has been utilized to bringmaterial wealth and comfort, but they have also damaged the global
environment. It is also true that the global environment cannot
be restored to its original state without science and technology,
which represents the accumulated wisdom of mankind. Thus it isimportant to develop and spread science and technology by adding
a new viewpoint: science and technology for the conservationof the global environment. For research and development where
technological development requires vast amounts of capital andhuman investment and cannot achieve results only by pursuing
short-term fruits such as in developing new energy technologies,

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Part 2 Conditions for Survival 181

special institutional measures based on a long-range viewpointshould be implemented.
In order to reexamine the relationship between human beingsand nature, not only consolidation of cross-disciplinary wisdom inscience and technology, but also assembling wisdom in the ﬁeldsof the human and social sciences is needed. What is meant here by
wisdom in the ﬁelds of the human and social sciences is something
related to ethics and the social systems necessary for mankind tolive as an entity in nature. It is important to try to solve the problem
on a societal scale by systematizing such wisdom and by ensuring
the use of the wisdom of both science and technology and of theﬁelds of the human and social sciences. To meet this requirement,
it will become more important to take a holistic approach toresearch by studying problems in a comprehensive manner throughwell-balanced interdisciplinary cooperation, rather than taking theconventional research approach that subdivides research ﬁelds into
smaller ones.

(2) Creating a Social System to Nurturea Mind of Consideration for Others

Establishing environmental education andnew lifestyles based on “a mind of consideration for others”

Global environmental problems emerged because human beings
were ignorant of the environment. It is therefore of the utmost
importance in solving the global environmental problems that
all human beings, both children and adults, become aware of
the importance of the problem and act to live their lives in a
way that will not damage the global environment. To this end,

182

environmental education must be provided not only at schools andlifelong education facilities but also at a range of public facilities,
including museums and nature parks.
In pursuing such environmental education, the basis should beto nurture a mind of consideration for others. Consideration forothers starts from having respect for others. In those relationships
among people and between human beings and nature, it is vital torecognize the importance of the mutual relation (the dependency)
and it is on the basis of consideration for others that we canunderstand what kind of pain each individual behaviors can cause
to others including nature.
In environmental education, it is therefore most important todevelop human resources that can contribute to the development of
a new society which ties the present to the future by looking at how
people depend on and coexist with others and contemplating whatkind of relationships to establish. Relationships between humanbeings and the natural environment are complicated and there arestill a lot of things to be clariﬁed, so it is necessary to constantly
accumulate new knowledge and review the relationship between
human beings and nature. And for this purpose, environmental
education must be provided continually on any circumstances.
Nurturing a mind of consideration for others will lead toestablishing lifestyles that allow people to lead sustainable lives innature and build and maintain good coordinating and cooperative
relationships with each other, moving out past mass-producing,mass-consuming, and mass-discarding lifestyles.
At present, the importance of reforming lifestyles has beenemphasized by people working in different fields, and someindividuals who have recognized this are taking action. Their actions,however, are still taken on an individual level and have not become

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 183

a movement in the society at large. We should now clarify how a
new lifestyle based on a mind of consideration for others should beachieved and to establish social institutions that spread and promotethat lifestyle widely.
Economic systems and societies for human beings tocontinue to survive with the blessings of nature

Economic systems provide mankind with tools to become rich, but
the unbridled pursuit of proﬁt leads to the unlimited expansion of
greed and competition and results in inequality and conﬂict amongpeople. There were quite a few companies that put emphasis on
short-term economic gains and ended up discharging pollutants
into the water and the atmosphere causing pollution. Global
warming is caused as a result of consuming fossil fuels beyond thethreshold.
We have not counted the environmental cost, which is regarded
as an external diseconomy, in the cost of our business activities
that include labor, materials, and other costs. As a result, wehave damaged the natural environment and caused the global
environmental problems. Since the latter half of the 20th century,
a number of initiatives to prevent local environmental destruction
began to be implemented, but to solve environmental problems
on a global scale, we must establish further various social rules
and mechanisms. The market economy is thought to work best in
raising the afﬂuence and vitality of our societies. But on the other
hand, it is necessary to have laws and regimes that lead to building
the framework for a market economy that will not diminish nature s
resilience.
Corporate activities that put priority on making proﬁt based on
economic rationality and efficiency are one of the major factors

184

that have caused the global environmental problems. From now on,
however, corporations are required to have the power to propose
new values and lifestyles and disseminate them through thesociety. Basing their actions on new and unconventional corporate
philosophies, corporate significance of existence is there inproviding products and services that meet the needs of the society,and by doing so, corporations can make great contributions inovercoming the crisis for the survival of mankind, and overcoming
the global environmental problems.
In what direction do we need to move to create a society thatwill not damage nature s ability to recover? We must treat natureas the basis of life and deal with it to create a society according to
the features of each region. The natural environment differs withthe region, in each of which people have been leading their lives
and nurturing their unique culture with the blessings of nature.
To treat nature as the basis of life means to fully understand theinherent features of the natural world in your own locality and leada life that does not damage the sound mechanisms of nature. To
ensure this, it is necessary to create a society where both in urban
and rural areas people come in contact with nature and enjoy its
blessings. And in building such a society, local communities mustbe established that will gather the wisdom of their localities andexpand their ties among the people.

(3) Dialogue and International Cooperation to

Build a Network for a Global Society

The 20th century was characterized by market competition. That
provided the driving force for the development of the economy andPart 2 Conditions for Survival 185

the society but also triggered expanded competition in personal
interest and greed. Global environmental problems are one of theresults of such competition.
In the 21st century, with the limits in resources and theenvironment becoming clear, limitless pursuit of development
and competition is no longer permissible, and it is becoming
increasingly important to consider how to cooperate and collaborate
to conserve and use limited resources and the environment. In
other words, it is all the more important to conserve the resources
and the environment through cooperation and collaboration amongpeople with burden sharing rather than the kind of competition that
had been prioritized. Consideration for others is thus becoming
more important than confrontation. Competition has created aself-centered mind that made people give priority to their own
beneﬁt and distrust their competitors, causing confrontation in theirrelationships. In order to restore trust among them, it is vital torebuild social organizations so that people can communicate witheach other competently. Communities such as families and local
societies have changed a lot compared to the past, but they can stillplay an important coordinating role in environmental conservationas communities based on kinship or local habitation. Precious local
resources, such as water resources, forests that provide richness
in the area and the beautiful scenery could be utilized based on
mutual trust within the local society.
On the other hand, problems that have to be dealt with on a
global scale such as global environmental problems cannot be solved
only by building relations of trust among those in close circles suchas families and local communities, as there will be different levels
of interests among countries and industries. At present, each country
has its own sovereignty and if a country says No to an international

186

treaty because it is not in its own national interest, other countries
cannot force the country to sign the treaty. Reviewing the recent
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the
Kyoto Protocol, it is unfortunate to note each country insisting on its
own national interest and to see that confrontations among countries
are deepening. However, it is through dialogue that countries canstart to understand each other s positions and ease confrontation sothat they can seek possible solutions. Communication is actually
being fostered, not only among countries, but also between countries
and international organizations and NGOs. Dialogue is not to
confront and defeat the logic of the opponent, but should work torecognize and understand the mutual relationship.
Countries should now cooperate for the benefit of the entire
world, rather than insisting on their own national interests. All
countries should regard themselves as members of the global
society beyond national boundaries and make a concerted effort tosolve our global environmental problems.

Part 2 Conditions for Survival 187

4 Establishing the “Blue Planet” anda Vibrant Society
In this document, the Round Table Conference proposes a visionof a new society: a solar energy-based society, in which humanbeings can live vibrantly with the blessings of nature, and sends
out the message that everyone has to play their role in restoring
the Blue Planet. Through dealing with global environmental
problems, to realize a global society that can deal flexibly withthe changes occurring to the Earth s system, which include
both human beings and nature, the Round Table Conference ismaking suggestions on how future science and technology andthe social systems should be. To make this a reality, let s not force
individuals to act uniformly to attain a goal, and with the public
value of the Blue Planet being realized, let us target a vibrantsociety where the originality and ingenuity of the individual arederived and utilized.
We sincerely hope that people firmly stand on the idea thathuman beings are a part of nature, and without being self-centered,
think about nature, others, other countries and future generation,and by acting cooperatively with each other having considerationfor others, realise a global society which sets its foundation on
dialogue and peace instead of confrontation and war.

188

Part 3Messages fromthe Blue Planet
Prize Laureates

Building Public Support for
The Environment

Some of the Blue Planet Prize laureates, who arecontinuing to make great contributions to the solutionof global environmental problems, have kindly sent us
their messages in commemoration of the publication ofConditions for Survival . The proposals made by these
insightful experts in their respective ﬁelds show us what
we must do now for humankind and the Earth.

Prof. Jeffrey A. McNeely
2nd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1993)
Born in the United States in 1944, he graduated from the
University of California at Los Angeles in 1967. He spent
the next 12 years on research and practice in resourcesmanagement in Thailand, Indonesia and Nepal. He joined theInternational Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in
1977, was appointed Chief Scientist in 1995 and is currently
Senior Science Advisor and Andrew D. White Professorat-Large at Cornell University He is active in the field ofconservation of nature as supervisory leader of the world slargest nature protection network.

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Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 193

Introduction

With more than half the world s population now living in cities, it
often seems that people are losing touch with nature. Improving
technology makes it far more convenient to stay at home andplay video games than go outdoors to interact with the living
environment. So what can be done to build public awareness about
the importance of maintaining healthy ecosystems for all life onearth?
Many answers to this fundamental question are available, but
I will here focus on only a few. Many economists think that themost effective way to build public support is through providing
economic arguments for the value of the ecosystems that form
our planet. After all, people are part of nature, and the diversityof elements, rocks, soils, species, and habitats has enabled life toflourish here. When people understand that ecosystems support
the valuable processes that cleanse our air and water, pollinate
our crops, decompose our waste, and control noxious pests anddiseases, then they may begin to change the way they think about
our planet.
For example, after the December 2004 tsunami hit the countries
bordering the Andaman Sea, many observers noted that areas
protected by mangrove forests suffered far less damage than areas
where mangroves had been cleared to establish shrimp ponds. One
result was renewed interest in maintaing existing mangroves andseeking to restore those that had been destroyed. Climate change
which warms the sea surface of the western Pacific promises tobring more intense typhoons to coastal areas, including Japan,
according to Kazuhisa Tsuboki of Nagoya University. This makes
it even more important to conserve coastal vegetation as a barrier
against storm surges from the sea.

194

When people realize that the water they drink, the food they eat,many of the ﬁbers that cloth them, the fuels that keep them warmand cool, and the medicines that restore their health are producedby the intricate web of life, then they may well seek ways to
become more active partners in conservation.
The economics of ecosystem services

Many of the beneﬁts that people receive from nature – what often
are called ecosystem services – have substantial economic
values. As just one example, a recent study of the value of carbon
sequestration in Canadian national parks found that replacing thecarbon stored in these parks would cost between US$ 72 billion
and US$ 78 billion. And the value of animal pollination services to
the global economy is estimated at US$ 197 billion. A 2009 study
by The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) project
reported that the value of ecosystem services in tropical forests
averaged US$6,120 per hectare per year, far more than could be
earned by timber alone. Coral reefs were found to be even morevaluable, averaging US$115,704 per hectare per year. Many othersuch values of ecosystem services have also been calculated, withthe total exceeding the annual gross national product of the planet.
On economic grounds alone, a strong case can be made that
ecosystems are well worth conserving.
But such arguments have not yet slowed the rate ofenvironmental degradation at the global scale. So perhaps weﬁrst need to ask what changes human behavior, and ﬁnd examples
where people really have made a difference. This question of how
to encourage human behavior that is in the public good has beenaddressed down through the ages, and many small-scale societies
seem to have found ways to encourage their members to contribute

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 195

to sustainable societies, for example through taboos or strictlyenforced limits on harvesting. In Nepal, the Sherpa people wholive on the slopes of Mt. Everest appoint their own forest guards,
called shingo nawa, who are empowered by the community tolimit the amount of ﬁrewood that can be harvested. The longevityof some societies indicates that sustainability is more than just afond hope or a slogan from the United Nations.
Practical actions to build public support for the environment

But the emerging global community seems to be driven by animperative to continue economic expansion despite signs thatmany natural resources and even entire ecosystems being overexploited and degraded. Under these conditions, finding ways
for individuals to inﬂuence powerful economic forces has been a
constant challenge. But at least the following components haveshowed promise in some situations, and might be applied more
broadly.

for the rice-growing cultures that have provided the material
basis for the civilizations in this part of the world. Large birds
are also important spiritual symbols in many parts of the world
and in many cultures, including the ancient Aztecs (Quetzal), andEgyptians (Horus), as well as modern Asian religions (Garuda).
Large predators, such as jaguars, lions, bears, killer whales,
and tigers, are also given spiritual value in many parts of theirranges. The power of such spiritual symbols is indicated by thegeographical spread of respect for them, among many cultures.
One modern application has been a programme launched in
October 2008 called "Save Your Logo . Sponsored by the WorldBank and the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN), it sought to encourage private companies to invest
in saving the species they used in their advertising, thereby
helping them to maintain their image. And many countries haveinvested significant funding to save species of great national
value, though with little commercial worth. The giant panda in
China is an outstanding example.

Ethics, the moral code by which people live. Religions that

help to inform ethics have long tended to support respect for
the environment. Already, the major religions are giving more
support to environmental issues, especially climate change,
drawing on the ancient teachings of the respective religions.
At the species level, many cultures use animals as religious
symbols. Such animals are often large and, at least potentially,
dangerous. Snakes, for example, have symbolic values inChristianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Judaism, and others. The
naga is a mythological snake form probably based on the kingcobra, and its influence is felt throughout south and southeast
Asia, possibly linked to the monsoon rainfall that is so important

196

Group self-interest. While many individuals may be interested

primarily in their own beneﬁt, many more may be motivated byhelping their family, clan, or village. This sense of responsibility
to the group is often extended, though perhaps somewhat
weaker, to the national level, and even the global level (asin the case of concern about climate change). Perhaps once
people have recognized that their behaviour in regard to theenvironment affects their own community, then they will behave
more responsibly. In many parts of the world, mistreating
animals is simply unacceptable social behaviour, and thisfeeling of identity with other species could be extended to entire

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 197

ecosystems as well. The key is to ﬁnd ways that everyone canfeel that he or she is making a contribution. One possibility inthe field of climate change would be a carbon tax, so people
who produce more greenhouse gas would pay more tax, thereby
encouraging them to consume less and contribute to the public
good. Consumer choices can also help the environment, forexample by purchasing food that has been certiﬁed to have been
produced in environmentally-friendly ways.
Peer pressure. What are other people doing, and what do they

think about what you are doing? The growing popularity ofelectronic communication may be helpful here, building a social
movement among young people in support of the environment.
They may look up to popular singers, athletes, or artists, andif these individuals are seen through FaceBook or Twitter tobe supporting environmental causes, then peer support may
increase. More generally, research has shown that numerous
contacts with neighbours, fellow students, or associates at work
can contribute substantially to success, happiness, and health.
Altruistic acts spread through social networks, so simply being
kind to others is contagious. Using social networks to support
the environment therefore has a sound basis in psychology andsociology. These networks can be even more effective if they
are focused on outdoor activities. The popularity of hiking
clubs, Scouts, birdwatching groups, and so forth has certainly
helped to encourage governments to establish and manage
protected areas where such activities can be carried out.
Building knowledge and information. The better the informationthat people have, the more likely they are going to respond

198

appropriately to the environmental challenges that are sure tocome. People are now inundated with information throughmultiple media, and when these support environmental causes,
people may become more supportive. Environmental awarenessshould begin in early childhood, so cartoon programs popular as
baby-sitters could include messages relevant to environmental
issues, presented in an entertaining way. Environmental
issues could be built into the entire school curriculum, not justin biology classes. Perhaps even better would be to enablepeople to contribute their own knowledge and information toconservation programmes. For example, gardeners could report
the dates when buds or flowers first appear, thereby helping
to document the impacts of climate change. Others may beinterested in bird watching and recording the ﬁrst migrants of thespring, again helping to link biodiversity with climate change.
And as a general point, when people realize that biodiversity
is essentially the way that ecosystems accumulate information,
perhaps they will look at biodiversity conservation through neweyes.
Links to other issues. If the environment is seen as its own
issue, perhaps the responsibility of a government agency or evena ministry, people may feel that the issues are being addressed,
and that they have little to contribute. But as indicated earlier,maintaining healthy ecosystems is essential for human wellbeing, and relevant to all sectors of society, from agriculture tonational security. While it may be important that some 12% of
the Earth s land suface is under some sort of protected status,
the other 88% is also important for the ecosystem services they
provide. Demonstrating the impact of invasive species of ﬁshPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 199

on Lake Biwa makes the issue come alive for people. The
new Satoyama Initiative being planned as part of Japan scontribution to the 10th Conference of Parties to the Convention
on Biological Diversity ( to be held in Nagoya in October2010) is another example, showing that traditional forms ofagroforestry still have much relevance today. It is no great
obstacle to discover what people really care about, and thenbuild a link to healthy ecosystems.
Conclusions

Many people feel powerless in the face of the environmental
challenges of the modern globalized world. Given thepervasiveness of climate change, loss of biodiversity, increasing
pollution, and economic disruption, what can a mere individual do?
The answer is, quite a lot. Each individual can live as greenly
as possible, seeking to minimize his or her ecological footprint
to the maximum practical extent. Many people are already doing
this. And remember that even a small behavioral change can set
in motion changes in attitude or self-perception that over time willlead to larger changes, including in other people.
Second, all individuals can be as well informed as possible,and gather information in ways that are consistent with their own
lifestyles. With the spread of electronic communication, people
throughout the world now have access to more information thanever, so they have no excuse for not being well informed about
the environmental issues that affect their lives. They can thenparticipate in public debates about the issues, helping to build astrong public consensus for ecosystem health. But remember thatenvironmental victories are often only temporary and subject tosubsequent reconsideration, while destruction need take place only

200

once for biodiversity to be lost forever.
Individuals can give their support to politicians who are
sensitive to environmental concerns and will work in the public
interest to ensure that policies at local, national and international
level are supportive of a healthy environment. Some may evenwish to run for local political ofﬁce, and have a positive impact totheir community and, ultimately, to the political party.
Individuals can join or otherwise support conservation
organizations. Virtually every country has local conservation
organizations, often numbering in the thousands. People canjoin local conservation organizations, larger ones at the national
level, or even international ones, all working toward the common
goal of a healthy environment for all people. At the local level,joining campaigns to save wetlands, re-direct roads that would
have fragmented habitats, or conserve old-growth forests can bepersonally rewarding as well as environmentally productive.
While none of these steps by themselves will bring about
huge changes, once people start behaving in an environmentallyconscienscious way, the next steps become easier. And the more
people support environmental causes, the more politicans aregoing to pay attention to the issues. Step by step, we can makeprogress on the long road toward the elusive goal of environmental
sustainability.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 201

Threatening curves, simple ideas,
and a complex situation

The situation mankind is in at present on our planet Earth isillustrated symbolically in figure 1. It shows the dangers weare facing: Mankind drives in a car through the centuries and isconfronted with an increasingly steeper slope ahead ( the sumof threatening curves). The world population was more or lessstable until the industrial revolution some 250 years ago; there
were about 1 billion people living on Earth. Since then, thispopulation has grown dramatically, even exponentially: 1950 –2.5 billion, 1970 – 3.7 billion, 1990 – 5.3 billion, 2000 – 6 billion
people. Certainly from looking at Asahi s Special Round Table
Conference on Global Environment Problems (2009) it seems
that the annual population growth rate is diminishing: 2.5％ in the1970 s, 2.2％ in the 1980 s, 1.9％ in the 1990 s, and l.6％ reported

Fig. 1: Mankind and threatening curves
World Population
Demands

Prof. Dr. Eugen Seibold

EnergyRaw Materials

3rd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1994)

Water
Cultivable Land

Born in Germany in 1918, he earned his Ph.D. from the
University of Tübingen in 1948. In 1958, he became full
professor and director of the Geological-Palaeontological
Institute at the University of Kiel. He was appointed presidentof the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)
in 1980 and became Honorary Professor at the University
of Freiburg in 1986. He unraveled the formation process ofcarbonate accumulation in the ocean-sediments and madepioneering achievements in solving the problems in the global
environment, including establishment of the foundation of
CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and ocean that has amajor impact on global warming.

202

Information
Finances(Carbondioxide（) CO2）

1900

1950

2000 ( Year )Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 203

for 2005. However, this is not an All Clear signal, because there
is still an annual increase of 80 million people. In addition, thedemands of the world s population are growing. As one example,
the consumption of primary energy (Tonnes of Oil Equivalent perperson) increased from l.36 in 1970 to l.62 in 2005. As anotherexample, there is the growing demand for more leisure time, or –in industrialized countries – for more two-car families, and so on.
All the data I have referred to are simpliﬁed. They are average,
and industrialized and developing countries, North, South, East andWest, have been mixed together. Some of these data are also based
only on intelligent guesswork. The same is inevitably true for manyof the simple ideas I will present in the rest of this essay.
Reality in a globalized world is inevitably complex, but one has
to begin with problems individually.
I want to deal here with some threatening curves related toworld population growth.

biologists and engineers are of course continuously improving
secondary or tertiary recovery from existing oil fields. Higher
prices also will force the expensive exploitation of tar sands and oil
shales, but robbery goes on.
2) CoalA similar situation exists for coal and lignite: both are lost to theatmosphere when they are burnt. Just as for petroleum, it would
be preferable in the long run to use them more and more as anorganic chemical resource to produce proteins or pharmaceuticals.
Underground burning can also be employed to exploit even thin coalseams, Although up to now the relevant attempts have not been very
promising. Coal can be used to produce gasoline and thereby to reduce
gasoline-supply problems. This was already done in Germany during
World War II, with the help of enormous government subsidies.
3) Natural gas

1) Petroleum

On human time scales, mineral resources are not increasing; it isobvious that they will eventually be used up, even when multiplestage recycling is considered. Petroleum is mostly lost into theatmosphere by burning, that is to say by oxidation to carbon dioxide.
This of course sharpens climate problems and contributes to anotherthreatening curve – the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
There are several methods by which the world s petroleum
resources can be estimated. Being a geologist, I calculated alreadybefore the 1973 oil crisis that during the last 500 million years
Nature had produced a few million barrels of oil every million
years. Yet we now consume about 3 billion barrels annually!
Exploitation like this is robbery. Geologists, geochemists,

204

Natural gas, the purest of hydrocarbons, is of ever growing
importance. During the last decades, the discovery of hugevolumes of methane stored in methane hydrates has led to the hopeof giant supplies of gas around all those continental margins wherepressures and temperatures are favourable for methane hydrate
formation and preservation. A yet-unsolved problem, however, isthe economic exploitation of these deposits. The same is true also
for deposits in areas of permafrost in polar regions.
4) Geothermal energy

The supply of energy is crucial for the survival of Western
civilization and for the development of all countries. It is the basis
for the functioning of agriculture, transport and industry. GeothermalPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 205

energy therefore should not be forgotten, even though it is onlyof importance regionally in volcanic areas like Iceland or parts ofJapan. It can also be of local importance for houses or settlements.
5) Supplementary energy sources

At present and certainly for the next decades, the world s energy
supply will come primarily from fossil sources（oil, gas and coal,
together with uranium for – safe – nuclear reactors）and from water
power – white coal . Roughly 88 percent of the energy supply isbased on fossil energy. Of course we have to increase the supply ofenergy from geothermal, solar and wind sources, from currents andwaves of the sea and from renewable biological sources.
These sources will remain supplementary, however, for a long
period to come.
6) Mineral resources

Mineral resources become depleted because they cannot be formedon human time scales. Volcanic sulfur may be an exception. Seen
globally, there is no bottle-neck in the Supply of iron, aluminium,
manganese. However, there may be problems in the supply ofcobalt and nickel for special steels, in the supply of copper, andin the supply of some rare earths necessary for high-technology
applications. Plant production is affected by the availability offertilizers from phosphates and potash salts.
7) Water

The supply of water is not a global problem; it is a regional one thatnevertheless is often dramatic. Modern industries need more andmore water; private usage of water constantly grows; irrigation inagriculture（and even for golf course in many arid areas!）demands

206

ever more; potable water in cities and towns becomes more and more
precious. To supply fresh water to new settlements, rich countries
even use a real energy-robbing approach: seawater desalination．
The recycling of water is made ever more difﬁcult as the resultof pollution by many inorganic and organic chemicals from various
sources. This is again the cumulative effect of Population growth
combined with more demands!
8) Cultivable land

The production of plants for food depends most obviously on soil
quality and water. However, it depends primarily on the availabilityof cultivable land. For centuries, man has very ingeniously
increased the amount of cultivable land, for instance by reclaiming
land from marine tidal flats or by constructing terraces on steep
slopes to cultivate rice, grapes or olives. At present, however, manyof these terraces are falling into decay because of their maintenancecosts. At the same time, huge areas of prime agricultural land areused up for highways, airports, parking lots and other commercial
and industrial purposes. The production of gasoline from plants
such as sugar cane, rape or cereals also has as a side-effect the
reduction of the area of land available for food production. Possibly,
the cultivation of microalgae in the sea will in the future become
an important method to produce biofuel. Clearly there is an urgent
need to increase crop yields, for example using molecular biology.
This could result in higher quantities and qualities, in greater
resistivity to parasites, in less damage from climate etc.
9) Information

At present, we are ﬂooded with information and must always try
to sort out those parts that are reliable. A special danger is thePart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 207

growing general availability of private data. If it is in fact true thathumans（in contrast to other animals）develop during their life theirindividual and unmistakable individuality, then privacy is a key
feature of being human. The growing availability of private datais thus an inhuman trend – but who can and will stop it？ Perhaps
it is some small comfort to know that many types of data can nolonger be read after a time, simply because of the rapidly changing
technologies by which they are stored!
10) Finance and human resources

The growing importance of science and technology is illustrated
by the growing number of people involved in these ﬁelds and by
the increasing costs for laboratories and instruments. The costs ofmedical care are increasing similarly. All of this can conveniently
be subsumed under the heading human resources , an unfortunate
term. Where natural resources are reduced, human resources canand must be increased. Human knowledge and education stimulate
creative ideas to solve some of our threatening problems. One of
the most threatening of these problems is the changing mental
attitude towards money itself. Personal debts and credits are
becoming overwhelming, and some bankers have lost all sense of
proportion. The anything goes attitude has led to megalomania,
with unknown consequences for the coming generations.
11) Climate Change

Many observations demonstrate that the world climate was andstill is changing continuously. There are also strong indications thatthe actions of man have contributed to this change, at least since
the Industrial Revolution. At present, global warming is the wordof the day. Some of the trends mentioned earlier in this essay are

208

directly inﬂuenced by this Warming.
The rise of global sea level due to higher ocean temperaturesand melting glaciers threatens low island sand deltas dramatically.
Even cliffed coasts will suffer as a result of increasing storm
activity. Climate zones on land and their vegetation begin to shift.
In some regions, extreme conditions such as droughts or floods
are increasingly producing damage. Higher air temperatures
are beginning to melt parts of the permafrost cement in highmountain areas, thus destabilizing slopes. In arctic areas higher air
temperatures stimulate the escape of methane from permafrost andtherefore cause additional warming. However, the amount and the
speed of these changes are an ongoing matter of discussion.
12) Earth System Research

Man s landing on the moon in 1969 had two results that are
relevant in this essay. The first was that man could now directly
see our Earth as a sphere in space, as a limited unit on which wehave to live. Thus the ﬁeld known as Earth System Research wasborn. The elements of Earth System Research include conventional
field measurement, controlled laboratory experiments, long-term
satellite experiments, investigations in climate archives found in
ice and sediment cores, and numerical modeling. All of this typeof work has to do with many factors and is therefore extremelycomplicated and expensive. Forecasting is very difﬁcult, and eventhe present state of the Earth is still not well enough known. But,
before therapy, a physician has to make an exact diagnosis.
The second result of the Moon landing was the development of
the conviction that everything is now possible . Some scientists
and engineers are already discussing therapies for the Earth –effectively taking a second step before the ﬁrst one is over. Thus wePart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 209

hear from these modern Jules Vernes that Earth Management has
to ensure that global warming is kept below 2 degrees Centigrade,that Synthetic Biology can be used to repair genetic damage, andeven that new primitive organisms can be created. And why notuse other planets for additional mineral resources, Or even forsettlements? All of these therapies are being discussed in spite of
the fact that one billion people today are suffering from hunger
and that another billion cannot even get clean water on this present
Best of all Worlds .
13) Some consequences

To cope with these challenges we need the help of creative
scientists and engineers to save energy, to save water, and evento replace mineral resources. Research on nuclear fusion should
continue. Plant production, both for food and for biofuel, must be
increased, especially using molecular biological techniques. Ideas
are needed for methods that can better deal with global informationand financial issues. These ideas, however, will likely suffer frominternational competition. As Darwin demonstrated, competition isa fundamental feature of organisms; it is the motor for progress. The
importance of competition was already ofﬁcially acknowledged inancient Greece, in the Olympic Games. However, in those Gamesthe limits of performance were set by the human body. Today,
competition in science, in economics, and in ﬁnance seems to haveno inherent limits. And fairness may therefore suffer. By far the most
difﬁcult task mankind faces is to reduce the world s population; atthe same time the global pool of scientiﬁc and engineering expertiseneeds to increase. Both of these changes have to be brought aboutby education. A reduction in the world s population of perhaps abillion is necessary; In contrast, the required increase in the number

210

of scientists and engineers is perhaps some millions.
If we cannot stop the dreadful trends that threaten us, then thespecies Homo sapiens may even become extinct. This will not be a
surprise to geologists. More than 99 ％ of all species of organisms
have disappeared by natural causes during Earth s history, andspecies in general do not live for more than a couple of million
years. Perhaps Homo sapiens will even contribute actively to his
own extinction, e.g. by nuclear accidents.
Finally, in considering how to solve our common problems, itis necessary to bear in mind all the aspects of our human nature.
Humans are not only creatures that possess the gift of reason; wehave emotions too, and a feeling of transcendency – if only while
listening to good music or reading good poetry. This is as true
today as it ever was. We have to combine knowledge with wisdom.
Sometimes, therefore, we should consciously remember theimportance to us of terms like modesty and charity, and if trying tounderstand life, respect and humility too.
Facing the threatening curves evokes many reflections. I am
convinced that most people will agree with these simple ideas I have
put forward here, although some will regard them as too simple
or too idealistic. Several of the consequences I foresee may lookunrealistic. Nevertheless, many people would beneﬁt greatly if oursocieties would take these ideas and these consequences seriously
and would act appropriately. Hopefully, more and more people will
apply them too in their private lives. Permanent education is needed
to avoid the attitude expressed in the Norwegian saying: Nobody
does what everybody ought to do .
Acknowledgement: John Tipper kindly corrected the English
text.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates211

Could Food Shortages
Bring Down Civilization?

Mr. Lester R. Brown
3rd Blue Planet Prize laureate (1994)
Born in the United States in 1934, he earned his Master of
Science degree in agricultural economics in 1959 from the
University of Maryland. He joined the US Department ofAgriculture in 1959. In 1974, he founded the Worldwatch
Institute, which specializes in analysis of global environment
issues. Global data on the global environment issues wasorganized systematically and published annually as State of
the World reports. In 2010, he established the Earth Policy
Institute to lay the roadmap to create an environmentally
sustainable economy. He is the author of Plan B.

212

In early 2008, Saudi Arabia announced that, after being selfsufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable
aquifer it had been pumping for irrigation was largely depleted. In
response, ofﬁcials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by
one eighth each year until production would cease entirely in 2016.
The Saudis then plan to use their oil wealth to import virtually all
the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30
million people.
The Saudis are unique in being so wholly dependent on
irrigation. But other, far larger, grain producers such as India
and China are facing irrigation water losses and could face grain
production declines.
A World Bank study of India s water balance notes that 15 percent
of its grain harvest is produced by overpumping. In human terms,
175 million Indians are being fed with grain produced from wells thatwill be going dry. The comparable number for China is 130 million.
Among the many other countries facing harvest reductions fromgroundwater depletion are Pakistan, Iran, and Yemen.
The tripling of world wheat, rice, and corn prices between mid2006 and mid-2008 signaled our growing vulnerability to foodshortages. It took the worst economic meltdown since the Great
Depression to lower grain prices.
Past decades have witnessed world grain price surges, butthey were event-driven̶a drought in the former Soviet Union,a monsoon failure in India, or a crop-withering heat wave in the
U.S. Corn Belt. This most recent price surge was trend-driven, theresult of our failure to reverse the environmental trends that areundermining world food production.
These trends include ̶ in addition to falling water tables ̶eroding soils and rising temperatures from increasing greenhouse

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 213

gas emissions. Rising temperatures bring crop-shrinking heatwaves, melting ice sheets, rising sea level, and shrinking mountainglaciers.
With both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting
at an accelerating pace, sea level could rise by up to six feet during
this century. Such a rise would inundate much of the Mekong Delta,
which produces half of the rice in Viet Nam, the world s secondranking rice exporter. Even a three-foot rise in sea level would
cover half the riceland in Bangladesh, a country of 160 million
people. And these are only two of Asia s many rice-growing riverdeltas.
The world s mountain glaciers have shrunk for 18 consecutive
years. Many smaller glaciers have disappeared. Nowhere is themelting more alarming than in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan
plateau where the ice melt from glaciers sustains not only the dryseason ﬂow of the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers but
also the irrigation systems that depend on them. Without these
glaciers, many Asian rivers would cease to flow during the dry
season.
The wheat and rice harvests of China and India would bedirectly affected. China is the world s leading wheat producer.
India is second. (The United States is third.) With rice, China andIndia totally dominate the world harvest. The projected meltingof these glaciers if we stay with business as usual poses the most
massive threat to food security the world has ever faced.
The number of hungry people, which was declining for several
decades, bottomed out in the mid-1990s at 825 million. It thenclimbed to 915 million in 2008 and jumped to over 1 billion in2009. With world food prices projected to continue rising, so too
will the number of hungry people, leaving millions of families214

trying to survive on one meal per day.
We know from studying earlier civilizations such as theSumerians, Mayans, and many others, that more often than not
it was food shortages that led to their demise. It now appears
that food may be the weak link in our early twenty-first century
civilization as well.
The world is entering a new food era, one marked by rising foodprices, growing numbers of hungry people, and an emerging politics
of food scarcity. As grain-exporting countries restrict or even ban
exports to keep domestic food prices from spiraling out of control,
importing countries are losing confidence in the market s ability
to supply their needs. In response, the more afﬂuent ones such as
Saudi Arabia, China, and South Korea are leasing and buying large
tracts of land in developing countries on which to grow food forthemselves.
Among the countries in which large tracts of land are being
acquired are Ethiopia and Sudan, both already heavily dependent
on World Food Programme lifelines to stave off famine. In effect,
the competition for land and water, in the form of land acquisitions,has crossed national boundaries, opening a new chapter in thehistory of food security.
Our early twenty-ﬁrst century civilization is showing signs ofstress as individual countries compete not only for scarce foodbut also for the land and water to produce it. People expect theirgovernments to provide food security. Indeed, the inability to doso is one of the hallmarks of a failing state. Each year the list of
failing states grows longer, leaving us with a disturbing question:
How many failing states before our global civilization begins tounravel?
Will we follow in the footsteps of the Sumerians and thePart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 215

Mayans or can we change course̶ and do it before time runs
out? Can we move onto an economic path that is environmentally
sustainable? We think we can. That is what Plan B is about.
Plan B aims to stabilize climate, stabilize population, eradicate
poverty, and restore the economy s natural support systems. It
prescribes a worldwide cut in net carbon emissions of 80 percent
by 2020, thus keeping atmospheric CO 2 concentrations fromexceeding 400 parts per million. In setting this goal, I did not ask
what would be politically popular but rather what would it take tohave a decent shot at saving the Greenland ice sheet and at least thelarger glaciers in the mountains of Asia.
Cutting carbon emissions will require both a worldwide
revolution in energy efficiency and a shift from oil, coal, andgas to wind, solar, and geothermal energy. The energy efﬁciency
revolution will transform everything from lighting to transportation.
With lighting, for example, shifting from incandescents to compact
fluorescent bulbs can reduce electricity use for lighting by 75
percent. But shifting from incandescents to the newer light-emitting
diodes (LEDs) combined with light sensors can cut electricity use
by more than 90 percent.
At least one of the new plug-in gas electric hybrids coming tomarket can get over 200 miles per gallon of gasoline. In the Plan B
energy economy of 2020, most of the ﬂeet will be plug-in hybrids andall-electric cars, and they will be running largely on wind-generated
electricity for the gasoline equivalent of less than $1 per gallon.
The shift to renewable sources of energy is moving at a paceand on a scale we could not imagine even two years ago. Consider
the state of Texas. The enormous number of wind projects underdevelopment, on top of the 9,000 megawatts of wind generating
capacity in operation and under construction, will bring Texas to216

over 50,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity (think 50 coalﬁred power plants) when all these wind farms are completed. This
will more than satisfy the needs of the state s 24 million residents.
Nationwide, new wind generating capacity in 2008 totaled
8,400 megawatts while new coal plants totaled only 1,400
megawatts. The annual growth in solar generating capacity will
also soon overtake that of coal. The energy transition is under way.
The United States has led the world in each of the last four
years in new wind generating capacity, having overtaken Germany
in 2005. But this lead will be short-lived as China appears set toblow by the United States in new wind capacity added in 2009.
China, with its Wind Base program, is working on six windfarm mega-complexes with generating capacities that range from10,000 to 30,000 megawatts, for a total of 105,000 megawatts.
This is in addition to the hundreds of smaller wind farms built orplanned.
Wind is not the only option. In July 2009, a consortium ofEuropean corporations led by Munich Re, and including DeutscheBank, Siemens, and ABB plus an Algerian firm, announced aproposal to tap the massive solar thermal generating capacity
in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. A German firm
calculates that solar thermal power plants in North Africa could
economically supply half of Europe s electricity. Algeria, which
has already completed its first solar thermal plant, has signed anagreement to supply Germany with solar-generated electricity. The
Algerians note that they have enough harnessable solar energy intheir desert to power the world economy. (No, this is not an error.)The soaring investment in wind, solar, and geothermal energy is
being driven by the exciting realization that these renewables canlast as long as the earth itself. In contrast to investing in new oilPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 217

ﬁelds where well yields begin to decline in a matter of decades, orin coal mines where the seams run out, these new energy sources
can last forever.
The combination of efﬁciency advances, the wholesale shift torenewable energy, and expansion of the earth s tree cover outlinedin Plan B would allow the world to cut net global carbon emissions
80 percent by 2020. In contrast to today s global electricity sector,
where coal supplies 40 percent of electricity, Plan B sees windemerging as the centerpiece in the 2020 energy economy, supplying
40 percent of all electricity.
We are in a race between political tipping points and natural
tipping points. Can we cut carbon emissions fast enough to savethe Greenland ice sheet and avoid the resulting rise in sea level?
Can we close coal-ﬁred power plants fast enough to save at least
the larger glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau?
Can we stabilize population by lowering fertility before naturetakes over and halts population growth by raising mortality?
Yes. But it will take something close to a wartime mobilization,
one similar to that of the United States in 1942 as it restructured its
industrial economy in a matter of months. We used to talk aboutsaving the planet, but it is civilization itself that is now at risk.
Saving civilization is not a spectator sport. Each of us mustpush for rapid change. And we must be armed with a plan outlining
the changes needed.
It is decision time. Like earlier civilizations that got into
environmental trouble, we have to make a choice. We can staywith business as usual and watch our economy decline and ourcivilization unravel, or we can adopt Plan B and be the generationthat mobilizes to save civilization. Our generation will make thedecision, but it will affect life on earth for all generations to come.

218

Achieving Food for
All and Forever

Dr. M. S. Swaminathan
5th Blue Planet Prize laureate (1996)
Born in India in 1925, he earned his Ph.D. from the
University of Cambridge in 1952. He is regarded the leader of
the Green Revolution movement for his contribution to therestoration of Indian agriculture. A proponent of sustainableagriculture that leads to a permanent Green Revolution, he isa leader in sustainable food security and is regarded one of
the 20 most inﬂuential Asians of the 20th century. He founded
MS Swaminathan Research Foundation in 1988 and serves as
its chairman to date.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 219

Introduction

Following the domestication of plants over 10,000 year ago
leading to the birth of agriculture or settled cultivation, there wasconsiderable emphasis on the sustainability of productivity. The
immediate problems were two fold. First, there was a diminishingreturn from the soil leading to a gradual decline in yield. Therefore,
it became important to develop methods by which the nutrientstaken from the soil can be restored to it. The answer of theearly farmers to this challenge was the introduction of shifting
cultivation, which means abandoning the land for a few years after
cropping for some years. Even today in the northeast of India,
the practice of jhumming or shifting cultivation is still prevalent.
However, the early cultivators practiced sustainable shifting
cultivation in the sense that the land which was earlier under theplough was allowed to regenerate over many years before being
put back under the plough. Unfortunately now the jhum cycle has
become very short and there is no time for the earlier cultivatedland to regenerate fully. Another method adopted for soil fertility
restoration was the introduction of cereal – legume rotation on the
one hand, and crop-livestock integrated farming on the other. The
practice of ploughing back into the soil all agricultural residues
was also adopted to improve the physical structure of the soil aswell as the soil organic matter. Thus, a sustainable system of soil
health maintenance and enhancement was standardized throughexperience and experiment.
Another major problem faced by the early practitioners ofsettled agriculture was the incidence of pests and diseases. Crop
health management became a major challenge. The response tothis challenge was in the form of maintenance of agro-biodiversity,
selection of resistant varieties, use of botanical pesticides and220

inter-cropping and multiple cropping. These all help to insulate
agriculture from severe loss as a result of pest epidemics. In thetemperate region, snow and extreme cold weather interrupt thepest cycle, but in the tropics crops are grown all round the year
and there are alternative hosts for many major pests. This is why
the pest load is very heavy in tropical agriculture. In the past,
the multiple and intercropping systems adopted were designed
to interrupt the pest breeding cycle. Crop mixtures and rotations
perform in the tropics the same role as extreme weather conditions
do in the temperate region in terms of pest build-up preventions.
In addition to the development and adoption of agronomic
practices, which will help to maintain and enhance soil healthand prevent pest epidemics, the early generation of farmers
also practiced water-harvesting procedures. Thus, tanks werealways associated with temples and religious institutions. Water
harvesting and community sharing became part of the spiritualand cultural heritage. Similarly biodiversity conservation waspracticed both through in situ on-farm conservation and ex situ
Sacred Groves. Temple trees were chosen on the basis of theirecological signiﬁcance. For example, the Temple Tree in the Lord
Nataraja Temple in Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, is a mangrove
species, Exocaria agallocha . This is because of the knowledge thatmangroves serve as bioshields during coastal storms.
Many of these traditional practices of natural resources
conservation and sustainable use gradually gave way to theunsustainable exploitation of land, water, forest and biodiversity.
Cereal – legume crop rotations gave way to monoculture. Whileon the one hand the green revolution, which marked the beginningof expansion of production through productivity improvement,
became a blessing in terms of saving land and forests, on the other,

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 221

it led to problems of land and water mining and environmental
pollution arising from the excessive use of chemical pesticides
and mineral fertilizers. The kinds of problems that exploitative
agriculture can create were described by me at the Indian Science
Congress held in Varanasi in January 1968 in the following words:
Exploitive agriculture offers great dangers if carried out with only
an immediate proﬁt or production motive. The emerging exploitive
farming community in India should become aware of this.
Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility
and soil structure would lead, ultimately, to the springing up ofdeserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would resultin soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides,
fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biologicalbalance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer
and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains
or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water
will lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource
left to us through ages of natural farming. The rapid replacement of
numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high-yieldingstrains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread ofserious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened
prior to the Irish potato famine of 1854 and the Bengal rice famine
in 1942. Therefore the initiation of exploitive agriculture without aproper understanding of the various consequences of every one of
the changes introduced into traditional agriculture, and without ﬁrst
building up a proper scientiﬁc and training base to sustain it, may
only lead us, in the long run, into an era of agricultural disaster
rather than one of agricultural prosperity.
From the above, it will be clear that sustainability science is a222

multi-disciplinary field. It requires a holistic approach while
analyzing problems like what I did in my analysis of high yieldagriculture in 1968, before the term green revolution was coinedby Mr William Gaud of USA in September 1968. Such an interdisciplinary science has to be built on the following foundations.

Ethics
Ethical considerations will have to guide human behaviour in relation
to natural resources exploitation. Bioethics and environmental
ethics are now developing into well-defined scientific areas.
The ethical responsibility of safeguarding the environment rests
on professionals, political leaders and the public. In the past byinvesting conservation with spiritual signiﬁcance, every individual
was made to integrate ethics in day to day life.
Economics
Ecological economics does not permit depreciation of natural assets.
Thus it has a time dimension of infinity. Ecological economics is
also a fast developing science and it will help to measure the beneﬁt– risk structure of development projects from the point of view of
their long-term impact. Ecological economics should become partof the curriculum in technological and management institutions.
All dependants on natural resources for their enterprises should
understand that good ecology is the pathway to good and enduringbusiness.
EquityThe concept of equity is now discussed in terms of both intragenerational equity and inter-generational equity (i.e. safeguarding

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 223

the interests of the future generations ) . For example, overexploitation and pollution of the aquifer will deny opportunities
for ground water availability to future generations. Similarly, themelting of ice and glaciers resulting in water shortage in cold desert
areas like Ladakh will force the future generations to migrate fromthe area. Climate change leading to the melting of ice will not only
cause ﬂoods in the plains but also a rise in sea level over a periodof time. Another important component of equity relates to thegender dimension of sustainability science. Women are the great
conservers of biodiversity and natural resources. Their role shouldbe acknowledged and strengthened.
EnergyEnergy is a key factor in terms of both economic development andclimate change. Integrated energy supply systems involving the
optimum use of all renewable forms of energy like solar, wind,biomass, biogas, geothermal etc., have to be developed. Other
opportunities like hydrogen and nuclear energy will have to be
integrated into an overall sustainable energy security system.

Education
Education is a cross cutting theme and has to take into accountall the above-mentioned factors. Environmental literacy should
be based on the principle of do ecology . For example, in thecase of biodiversity, there is need to create an economic stake inconservation. Orphan crops can be saved only if there are markets
for them. Similarly in the case of nature tourism, those who operatehouseboats or hotels in eco-sensitive areas should be aware that
good ecology is good business. Environmental education should
also be based on practical examples, which can drive home themessage, which is to be conveyed. Therefore, it should be based onﬁeld projects which can demonstrate how to organize ecotourism,
conduct green audit, manage rain forests sustainably, etc. Just as
action research programmes help to gather data on the economics
and ecology of development projects, action education will derive
its roots from ﬁeld experience.

Employment
Many of the livelihood opportunities in developing countries
are based on the use of natural resources like land, water, forest
and biodiversity. Emerging technologies tend to promote joblesseconomic growth. In population rich but land and water hungry
countries, there is need for job-led economic growth. Therefore
development experts and technology developers should take
into account the impact of new technologies and management
procedures on job and livelihood security. Jobless growth is joylessgrowth in population rich countries.

224

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 225

Crisis in leadership around
Sustainable Development

Choices between evils. As our leaders in policy and businessseek solutions to sustainability related problems, they often findthemselves making choices between evils. How those choices
make sense, or not, as stepping stones towards a sustainable
society, is missing more or less completely in the debate. This isbecause our leaders don t know what sustainability is. They simply
don t have an operational definition. And that is today s mostserious sustainability problem, not climate, pollution, declining
biodiversity, freshwater scarcity, poverty, nuclear threats or
terrorism. The lack of a shared understanding of what sustainability
really means is the major impediment to progress on sustainable
development. More and more leaders have begun to understandthis, but they still often reach the wrong conclusions.
Leadership puts demands on competence, not only values.

Dr. Karl-Henrik Robèrt
9th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2000)
Born in Sweden in 1947 and earned his Ph.D. in medicine
in 1979 at the Karolinksa Institute. He founded The Natural
Step in 1989. He became Professor of Resource Theory atUniversity of Gothenburg in 1995. At present, he is professorof sustainability at Blekinge Institute of Technology and at
the same time chairman of the international research program
Real Change pursuing a unifying framework for sustainable
development.

226

It is the main task of leaders, not experts, to define goals on an
overriding societal level, and to keep sectors and departments
coordinated along the way. On this, i.e. policy guidance andleadership, experts are mostly amateurs. But today ʼs sustainability
decisions in policy and business are often developed in various
summits and commissions where responsibilities are transferredfrom leaders to experts. The result is attempts to build decisions
directly from an understanding of some parts of systems e.g.
ecosystems or climate” or agriculture , but still without anunderstanding of the connections between those parts at the levelof the full system. It becomes impossible to evaluate impacts
against desired outcomes in any comprehensive or meaningful
way without a view of full system consequences. The result is talkclubs, comparing evils. Or worse, policy makers seeking scientiﬁc
support for proposals they have already decided to make. Efforts

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 227

to move directly from scientiﬁc facts to decision making are called
the naturalistic fallacy . Meanwhile damage is increasing insocial and ecological systems, faith in our leaders declines, young
people s expectations about the future are low, and finance andeconomic crises become inevitable.
A few examples

Within the fuel sector, renewable fuel production from biomass,
e.g. corn in the US, is allowed to compete with food production.
This has lead to negative consequences, e.g. in the social systemthrough escalating food prices. Furthermore, the smart waysby which fuels from biomass can be produced ( so as to linknaturally to the future s much more efﬁcient energy- and fuel- andagricultural systems), is hardly discussed at all. And the result is abad reputation for all fuel-alcohols.
Another example is the debate on ecological farming vs. industrial
farming”. In fact, both options have their respective advantages anddisadvantages. They are currently compared with each other, without
any reference made to the huge challenge of moving systematicallytowards sustainability for the whole sector. From a future perspective,none of the current alternatives will sufﬁce if we are to avoid muchworse starvation catastrophes than the ones we have already seen.
Industrial as well as ecological agriculture ought to develop
stepwise towards sustainability in a way that they could learn fromeach other. This requires another type of more cooperative andsystematic scientiﬁc dialogue than the debate currently going on at
the global level.

228

Yet another example is nuclear power. It is proposed by many as
the solution to climate change. Opponents, on the other hand, pointat all the serious problems such as inevitable accidents, linkage
to nuclear arms, radioactive pollution from leakages, waste
management, and vulnerable centralization of energy solutions. The
choice seems to be between global warming and nuclear winter. In
this debate, it is rare that the participants are requested to explain
how developments within any of those energy alternatives could
serve as stepping stones, in a way that is ﬁnancially competitive,
towards completely sustainable energy systems. Renewableenergy also continues to be discussed in a non-strategic way. The
accessibility of sustainable energy sources (direct and indirect sun,geothermal, and tidal waters) is many times larger than our needs
will ever be. The costs for the fuel cycle are relatively low or zerofor those systems, and they don t inherently build on accumulationof dangerous waste and other risks. Yet sustainable energy is often
discussed in terms of naïve dreams. Those systems can not beapplied until they are developed . It is like saying: I will not begin
exercising until I am ﬁt .
Strategic planning towards sustainability can be taught.

Why. It is a myth that a policy that supports sustainability is
bad for competition in business”. Historic, theoretic and empiric
research shows that it is the other way around. The problem is,again, that our leaders in policy and business don t know whatsustainability is. So they do not see how large a proportion of
today s ﬁnancial crisis is in fact related to un-sustainable decisions
made in the past, nor how many problems have been avoided
by those organizations that have acquired the knowledge. The

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 229

latter are still in minority, e.g. US based Interface calling fullsustainability The Top of Mount Sustainability , or Nike Calling
it North Star , or Rohm & Haas (now Dow Chemical Company)
and Whistler, the next host for the winter Olympics, simply calling
it TNS System Conditions .

Furthermore, the aim is not to sell” the work that has been done up
to this point. On the contrary, the aim is to present a logical ﬂow ofthoughts that lead up to the need for the framework with its uniquequalities, to enable the recruiting of more scientists and decision
makers into the ongoing Real Change learning dialogue:

What." For the individual decision maker, it is enough to respondto three simple questions to decide whereas his or her organizationneeds to acquire the competence: (1) Do you have a deﬁnition ofsocial and ecological sustainability? (2) If so, what is your current
gap to full sustainability? (3) What are you doing, at the strategiclevel, to bridge the gap? If you put all questions together, there is
generally no answer. If you cannot reply to the ﬁrst question, you
cannot respond to the other two. If you don t have an operationaldeﬁnition of where you are going, the rest doesn t matter – you are
not a leader.

Deﬁnition needed. Sustainability will not happen outside thecontext of a robust deﬁnition of sustainability – trial and error
and various piecemeal attempts will not take us there in time
● Definition based on principles. Social and ecologicalsustainability can only be defined at the level of principle.
It cannot be defined at the level of detail. Sustainability
will inherently appear in many different shapes depending
on differences in conditions for different regions andorganizations. Furthermore, technical and culturaldevelopment will keep changing conditions. What appears,
for instance, to be an efficient way of sustainable energy
today may seem hopelessly inefﬁcient tomorrow. To lock on
relatively speciﬁc targets too early in strategic approaches, is a
mediocre way of strategic planning. The too-early focus upon
detailed answers, means we carry today s preoccupations,problems and prejudices into the future, failing again to see
the bigger picture and the full horizon of sustainability.
● Strategic approach. We need a systematic step-by-step
approach towards a robust, principled, deﬁnition of social andecological sustainability while ensuring a sufﬁcient ﬁnancial,ecological and social inﬂux of resources on the way so as tosustain the process. This calls for a unifying framework forappropriate analyses of practices, analyses of visions andsolutions, guidelines for development of strategic plans andHow." For strategic planning, there are today well developed
methods that are relatively easy to learn and practice. They support
powerful decision making and leadership. Over a twenty year
period, a unifying framework for sustainable development has
been developed, practiced, and reﬁned to respond to the leadershipchallenge presented in this essay. It is known as the Framework
for Strategic Sustainable Development, FSSD, or The Natural
Step Framework from the NGO that has facilitated its scientificexploration and applies it for advice in business and policy aroundthe world. It is now also part of a 10-year research program,
Real Change, involving universities, business corporations,municipalities and governmental authorities across the globe.
It goes beyond the scope of this essay to teach the Framework.

230●

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 231

for more appropriate selection and use of tools and concepts.
●Requirements of sustainability principles. For basic principles
of social and ecological sustainability to be operative, theyneed to have the following characteristics:
They must be necessary for sustainability ( to avoid
unnecessary restrictions)
They must be enough for sustainability (to avoid gaps in
the thinking, and to allow elaboration into second andhigher orders of principles so as to cover all aspects thatare relevant for sustainability)
They must be general (for interdisciplinary and crosssector cooperation to occur)
They must be concrete and applicable as criteria for redesign (so as to allow the step-by-step approach in real life
planning).
They must not overlap, but be mutually exclusive (so as toallow comprehension and monitoring of approaches).
● Unique deliverables from such a framework. A genericframework developed in line with those considerations coulddeliver on the following:
Planning and modelling could occur from a perspectiveof the full potential of the system, based in physics andecology, rather than being based on the constraints ofcurrent technologies and cultures.
Trade-offs between different investment alternatives could
be dealt with in a logical way, evaluated as stepping stones
towards sustainability rather than as choices between evils
in the short time perspective.
It would make better use of existing tools and concepts forsustainable development, by selecting and informing the232

ones needed, and developing the ones lacking.
The problem of system boundaries can be solved.
Though traditional science puts demands on clear
system boundaries when systems are studied, we know
upfront that there are no relevant system boundaries forsustainability. A sustainable Tokyo is impossible outside
the context of world sustainability, and the same is true forsustainable energy if other sectors are not sustainable
as well. Everything that needs to be taken into account forsustainability should be taken into account.
Multidimensional planning in complex systems canhave no other relevant system boundaries than purpose.
Everything in society within the biosphere that is essential
for sustainability in the context of a certain project ororganization, regardless if it is measured in km/hour, mg/
ml, annual harvest or any other dimension needs to be taken
into account. Modern systems science helps us do this.
It would serve as a shared mental model for interdisciplinary
and cross-cultural cooperation, and move those terms frombuzz-words to reality.
Experiences made in the Real Change programme. Over 20

years, much of this work has been facilitated by the NGO The
Natural Step. Now the recently launched Real Change Research
Programme – a 10-year research program involving universities,business organizations, local governments and governmental
authorities across the globe allows us to more systematicallyscrutinize and test the experiences made. This program is growing
pretty much under the radar of main stream Industrial Ecology,
but is currently reaching growing interest academically and inPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 233

practice. In concrete terms, we have case-studies from a numberof universities in cooperation with organizations - business andmunicipalities. These are currently putting full sustainability on
the table (defined, as far as we are able with current knowledge,
all the way down to the basic principle level) after which strategicroutes to comply with those principles are outlined. The outcome
is a new type of action-research where tools, concepts, modelingand simulation emerge from system boundaries set by a robust
deﬁnition of purpose (rather than as attempts to deal with impacts
as those surface, one by one). As the framework is applied, it
is continuously scrutinized and improved in learning dialogues
between academia and practitioners.
It is a fantastic human experience to understand basic principles
for worthy goals together, across disciplinary and professional andideological boundaries, and realize that we need each other to reachthe goal. Against that background, it is breathtaking that so few of
our leaders know how to put full sustainability on the table, and toshape their debates and action programs accordingly. It is as if weshould all be content with the idea of civilization succumbing a bit
slower, if we only listen to this or that proposal. Strategic planningtowards sustainability is not something that comes to you if you
are only enough engaged in the public debate, have a certain ﬁeldof expertise, or admit to a certain ideology. What we need today
are decision makers that are prepared to sit on the school bench fora while, to achieve this competence and the language that comeswith it. Only then can they make relevance of their leadership,cooperate efﬁciently across discipline- and sector boundaries, andonly then can they ask the relevant questions of the experts.

234

Mankaind and The Environment

Dr. Norman Myers
10th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2001)
Born in the United Kingdom in 1934 and graduated from
Oxford University in 1958. He earned his Ph.D. in 1973 fromthe University of California at Berkeley. Presently, he is a
Fellow of the 21st Century School, Green College and theSaid Business School, Oxford University and has been active
as writer, photographer and lecturer on African wildlife.
He issued the first warnings on mass extinction of species
and tropical deforestation. In the 1980s, he introduced theconcept of biodiversity hotspots and was a major inﬂuence on
subsequent conservation activities.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 235

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed citizens
can change the world. Indeed it is the only thing that ever has.
―――The American visionary Margaret Mead.
Our Earth and our world are in serious trouble, as has been
demonstrated year after year by the Foundation s environmental
surveys. Many people are aware of this crisis, many are not. Many
people want to help create sustainable habitats, many (seemingly)
don t care. How to make everyone aware of what is going on andencourage them to join in a great global campaign to confront the
many dangers that beset us? These key questions form the focus of
this essay.
GNP as an economic measure

A government s prime measure of its economy s health is Gross
National Product (GNP), being a measure that supposedly supplies
us with a realistic assessment of our economies. It is also vital tothe business world, the media, and public opinion generally. Yet
our quirky modes of calculating GNP mean that many economic
losses are actually viewed as pluses since they entail economictransactions in the marketplace, and hence, willy-nilly, they are
to be added on to GNP. In 2004, crime levied costs to the US
economy totalling $34 billion, road injuries and deaths $175
billion, and pollution $199 billion. These, plus a good many othersuch bads totalling $6.4 trillion (equivalent to just over half ofthe ofﬁcial GNP) were added to, rather than subtracted from, GNP.
On the plus side a host of goods totalling $4.4 trillion remain
outside the GNP metric and include housework, child care andvolunteer work. Even when adding these goods to GNP, we stillﬁnd that a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) reveals a huge gap

236

between GNP and GPI. In other words, Americans were not nearlyso well off as they seemed to assume. In per-capita terms, during
the period 1978-2004 the GPI did no better than remain constant ataround $15,000.
There are other innovative modes of measuring economies,apart from the GPI, including Green Accounting, Net National
Product and an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW).
These measures go far to recognizing that our economies areultimately dependent on the environmental resource base that
underpins all human activity. Within a few years there could well
be several dozen front-rank countries managing their environmental
wealth in the same way they currently manage their ﬁnances.
A further way to assess how a country is faring, and especially
how far it is pursuing a sustainable path, is to invoke theEcological Footprint, a mode of analysis examining our use, orover-use, of environmental resources such as water, soil, landand vegetation--these resources being collectively known as
biocapacity . Earth s 14 billion global hectares ( gha ) of
biocapacity equates to only 2.1 gha per person, yet our average
per-person footprint already exceeds 2.7 gha ( Americans 9.4gha, Japanese 4.9 gha). The analysis further shows that we haveincreased our loading of the planet from 70% to 130% in justfour decades. Or: our footprints amount to 1.2 planets , and by2030 they could expand to two planets. To achieve sustainable
development, we need to get our footprints back below 2 gha.
The Ecological Footprint concept is now a part of Japan s Basic
Environmental Plan.
“Perverse” subsidies

Now for a look at how conventional economics is subject toPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 237

sizeable lacunae that are not as prominent as other problems
but are highly significant nonetheless. Consider the propensityof governments to misuse fiscal instruments. Such instruments,
whatever their form, should be designed to promote good policies
and discourage bad ones. Instead, almost every government
has created, almost without realizing it, a complex structure of
subsidies which, once established, prove almost irremovable.
Certain subsides are harmful to our economies as well as
our environments. Subsidies for agriculture foster over-loadingof croplands, leading to erosion of topsoil, pollution fromsynthetic fertilizers and pesticides, and release of greenhousegases. Subsidies for fossil fuels are a prime source of pollution.
Subsidies for road transport also promote pollution, plus suchother ills as road congestion. Subsidies for water encourage misuseand over-use of supplies. Subsidies for forestry encourage overlogging and other forms of deforestation. Subsidies for fisheries
foster over-exploitation of ﬁsh stocks. Well might we term them
"perverse." Such subsidies bedevil all our economies, whereupon
the public interest, which was their original justiﬁcation, becomes
lost. They total $2 trillion a year worldwide̶ one quarter ofthem in the United States. As a measure of how far they damage
the sustainability cause, note that in several economic sectors
the subsidies inadvertently deplete biodiversity habitats throughsubsidies totalling at least $200 billion per year̶ a sum that
contrasts with worldwide spending on conservation of biodiversity,$20 billion at most. This is all the more regrettable in that
ecosystem services (pollination, soil formation, clean water, etc.,)
are estimated to be worth a sum on a par with the global economy.
There is scarcely a sector of government that is in greater needof root-and-branch reform than subsidies̶and it is precisely the238

long-run impact of subsidies on political processes that makes
them so hard to change. If we could sort out just these two
supersize roadblocks, viz. distortive GNP and perverse subsidies,
our economies would leap ahead and in much more productive andsustainable fashion.
Population: deep denial

Ask anyone about the world s foremost environmental problems,
and they will probably cite climate change, tropical deforestation,
widespread pollution, energy shortages, water deficits, and soon. They are little likely to utter a word about population. The
issue seems to have slipped off everyone s radar screen, especiallypoliticians .
Thus population has become the Great Unmentionable, eventhough population growth is implicated, whether directly or
indirectly, in virtually all our problems. We know virtually all
we need to do, viz. promote family planning and foster women s
roles. We have stacks of success stories to hearten us on our way;
Bangladesh, Egypt and Thailand have found that the benefits of
preventing one unwanted birth exceed the costs in social services
10-16 times over; in certain Latin American countries every $1
spent on contraception saves up to $12 in health and education
services alone. Regrettably we encounter a lengthy list of
roadblocks: ignorance about the issue; sheer prejudice; and evensubsidies for families beyond two children.
Fortunately there is a potentially upbeat side to population. No
fewer than 140 million couples in developing countries lack thecontraceptive means to put their family-planning wishes into action;
another 64 million lack modern methods of contraception. If wewere to meet these unmet needs , we would reduce the ultimate

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 239

global total by well over one billion people. It costs an average of
only $20 to meet these needs for one couple for one year, so weare talking about $2.8 billion in all. This sum is equivalent to wellunder one day s military spending worldwide, and we might well
ask which outlay would purchase the greater security. For a richworld taxpayer it would work out to no more than the cost of one
hamburger supper. Is this not another instance where public opinion
is way ahead of what our political leaders tell us.
Finally, let us remember that lack of contraception is not
conﬁned to developing countries. Of the six million pregnancies ofAmerican women each year, almost three million are unintended;result, 1.4 million unplanned births and 1.3 million abortions.
How long until the United States can call itself a truly developed
country? Each year the United States grows by just over 3 million
people (including immigration), and the country s land mass is
growing no bigger.
Overview

The above is not to ignore our many success stories. Without them
we would be in far worse shape. But: is the remedy a simple caseof "The same as before, only more so", or do we need to consider
altogether new strategies as well? The author proposes that weshould engage in an emphatic expansion of our policy purview.
Could it be that most of our best efforts are merely reactive innature, and hence we should do more to get ahead of the game̶totackle problems before they become problems?
Could it be, in fact, that the core problem does not lie so muchwith individuals who are ignorant or selﬁsh or indifferent. Rather
it lies with our institutions , or the ways that society has devised to
run our affairs̶ the rules of the game. While many institutions

240

serve us well, a good number lead us sorely astray (see, for notable
example, the section on GNP above). Thus institutions reﬂect thecollective needs of individual persons; and hence institutions madeup of just a few like-minded individuals can shape the behaviour of
far larger groups of citizens. To cite Edward Burke: Nobody evermade a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could
only do a little. And reader, if you are still sceptical about how
much of a difference can be made by an individual, you ve neverbeen in bed with a mosquito.
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)

Perhaps the main way to foster cultural contagion is via NGOs. At
the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment in 1972,
there were so few NGOs that they could have ﬁtted into a single
room. At the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002,
there were several thousand NGOs̶and they enjoyed a place as ofright at the negotiating table, making for a dramatic increase in thepotential of individual citizens to be agents of advance. More thanhalf the world s people now live in democracies. Plus, the spreadof information technology has empowered individuals to makecommon cause at a speed and on a scale previously unprecedented.
NGOs worldwide now comprise over one million organizations
populated by over 100 million people. To cite the networking
guru Paul Hawken, Collectively it constitutes the single biggest
movement in the world. It doesn t know it is a movement, it has
no name, yet it acts in aggregate because at its core it is based onshared values that are universal. It is an extraordinary source of
new thinking, ideas and initiatives. The healing of the world is amassive challenge that can be undertaken only by ordinary citizens
everywhere, not by governments or oligarchies somewhere.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 241

As an indication of NGOs growing clout, in December 1997,
122 countries agreed to stop using and selling landmines. This
remarkable breakthrough was attributed not so much to governments
as to more than 1000 NGOs which had lobbied ofﬁcials on the issue
for years. This event marked a shift in the balance of power ininternational politics, unimaginable thirteen years ago.
There has been no other time, not remotely, when we could
say that thanks to NGOs and the communications revolution,
everybody can be somebody and nobody need be nobody. Everylast citizen can make their voice heard in a global village that
becomes ever-more populous and ever-more connected. By 2008
there were 1.4 billion Internet users 3.5 billion cell phones (onefor every two persons on the planet). In 1993 there were only 50
sites on the World Wide Web, but by 2008 the total had soared tohundreds of millions. In fact the Internet has become so powerfulthat it has spawned an altogether new institution in the form of"virtual nations", being large-scale international communities
of citizens with no limitations of space and time, no politicalboundaries, no territorial frontiers, no economic divisions, nosocial differences, indeed none of the traditional divisions that
separate old-style nations. To cite Paul Hawken again, They
amass sufﬁcient power, wealth and shared purpose to acquire vast
resources for those functions traditionally performed by nation
states ... They are proving to be both the cause and effect of amonumental shift in economic, political and social structures rightaround the world.

and North, South, West and East. Cuba has become the sole country
to attain basic standards of sustainable development (and it has
made itself largely immune to hurricane damage, in huge contrast
to the U.S. Gulf Coast ) . Costa Rica plans to shift entirely torenewable sources of energy, and to become the ﬁrst country to becarbon neutral. Israel has pioneered new technologies to increasewater efﬁciency to a level several times greater than is usual aroundthe world. South Korea has covered its hills and mountains withtrees. Finland has outlawed non-reﬁllable drink containers, while
Ireland has imposed a tax on plastic shopping bags in supermarkets( cutting their use by more than 90%) . Germany is exploring amajor tax-shifting effort to increase energy taxes, offsetting thiswith reduced income taxes. Iceland is planning the world s firsthydrogen-based economy. The Dutch have determined that the key
to urban transportation lies with bicycles. Denmark has banned theconstruction of coal-ﬁred power plants, as well as being a country
with more members of environmental groups than Danes.
People are on the move!

FinaleFinally, a miscellany of what is being done by people in nations
large and small, rich and poor, democratic or not, capitalist or not,242

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 243

Protecting the Global Environment
by Starting from What We Can Do

Dr. Akira Miyawaki
15th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2006)
Born in Japan in 1928, he earned his Doctor of Science degreein 1961 from Hiroshima University. He became professorof the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology,
Yokohama National University, in 1973 and professor emeritus
at the said university in 1993. Since 1993, he has been
director of IGES-Japanese Center for International Studies
in Ecology (IGES-JISE). He was appointed chairman of theInternational Congress of Ecology in 1996. He demonstrated
and proved that forest reconstruction based on potential
natural vegetation enabled the restoration of ﬁre-protectionand environment-conservation forests that approximatednatural forests. He established the forest restoration andreconstruction method called the Miyawaki method, which
has had concrete achievements in Japan and other countries.

244

Essential Challenge Posed by Environmental Problems

In the rapid progress of a large-scale development of nature,
expansion of industrial sites and urbanization on a global scale,environmental problems are urgently requested to be dealt with andsolved at the household, regional, national and international levels.
Contemporary people are now consuming energy in vast amounts
that were unthinkable in the past, and are living surrounded by arange of non-biological materials. For those people, environmental
problems span in numerous fields and nature responds to those
problems in a variety of phenomena, such as earthquakes andtyphoons and associated fires, tsunami, and floods; other natural
disasters such as repeated widespread droughts, environmental
destruction caused by the development of natural areas, pollutionof rivers, oceans, the air, and soil caused by chemical substancesdischarged from factories, the heat island phenomenon in desertlike cities full of concrete buildings, loss of biodiversity, andglobal warming, and these will all have a serious impact on us
all. To solve these problems, a range of measures are being taken,
including both technological and non-technological approaches. At
present, such measures are widely implemented on a case-by-casebasis, but there is a concern that the essence of what they are is
being obscured because these environmental problems pose so vastand serious a challenge.
The essential challenge in tackling environmental problems is
to protect life. Human beings think and feel with their abnormallydeveloped cerebral cortex. Humankind has used tools to developscience and technology and also developed the arts to express
their pleasures and sorrows. To protect life means to pass on thegenes that have been passed over for four billion years since thebirth of a primitive life on earth, and to pass on the intelligencePart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 245

and sensitivity of human beings, to future generations without fail.
What we must protect for the future is these invaluable genes rather
than the money and shares that are now attracting much attention
in the world. We must maintain the biological environment as a
total system by protecting the human life, their sensibility andgenes, together with the biodiversity of animals, plants, andmicroorganisms that coexist with humankind.
The modern science and technology could be called quantitative
science. In the age of Goethe, the concept of als Ganzheit wasa mainstream idea that viewed everything as a whole. However,following the invention of the thermometer and litmus paper at theend of the 18th century, it became possible to measure and quantify
individual environmental factors in a speciﬁc timeframe and space.
Since then quantitative science has made great progress.
By using advanced science and technology and nonliving
materials, humankind reached the Moon. However, even with
contemporary science, technology and medicine, no one out of theworld s population of 6.7 billion can live for 200 or 300 years, even
if all the money in the world is spent on developing immortality.
Although biochemistry has progressed and genes can now berecombined, no biological cells have yet been created.
It might therefore still prove impossible to deal with the living
environment of human beings only using quantitative science. We
need to develop physicochemical research and at the same time
foster research and measures from an aspect of life as a whole,which may still include a number of unknown factors.
Humankind as a Biological Being

Even if we develop new science and technology and become very
rich, we will only be a part of nature and can survive sustainably

246

only in our capacity as a consumer in the ecosystems that are
based on the circulation of materials. Green plants are the only
producers that support the lives of all creatures including
human beings. We are thus parasites on green plants. Green
plants, in particular indigenous forests composed of multilayered
communities of trees, have a surface area of greenery that is 30
times as large as that of lawns and other single-layered plants,
and provide the living foundation for human beings. At present,
however, the area of indigenous forest has diminished substantially.
For example in Japan, according to the results of our survey, theevergreen broadleaf (glossy-leaved) tree region, where at least
92% of the 120 million people in the country are still living, hasdiminished to only 0.06% of its original forest area.
Looking back on the history of human civilization, the world sﬁrst cultural regions were all in evergreen broadleaf tree regions,such as Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece, and the Roman Empire. In
the Mediterranean region, where it often rains in winter and is dryin summer without much rain, the leaves of evergreen trees are
small and hard and have trichome to prevent water evaporation.
For this reason, evergreen broadleaved trees in the Mediterranean
region are called sclerophyllous trees, distinguishing them fromglossy-leaved trees in Asia.
In ancient times, religions were generally polytheistic in thesame way as the ancient Japanese Shinto religion. In an ancient
poem from Mesopotamia, it is written that the first king named
Gilgamesh killed the god of the forest as his ﬁrst act as king. He
then freely felled the trees in the forest, which was no longer
protected by the god, to build a city and develop civilization. This
clearly shows the idea that nature is something to be conquered for
civilization.

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 247

When people consumed all the blessings from the forest, thecity was destroyed and the culture ebbed away. Then the centerof civilization moved from the Mediterranean sclerophyllous tree
region to the northern broadleaved deciduous tree region which
was mainly composed of European oaks. London, Paris, Berlin,
and Brussels were the major cities in the region. Europeans whocrossed the ocean to reach America built cities in Boston, Chicago,
New York, Washington, and Philadelphia, which were all in areas
with broadleaved deciduous trees, namely American oaks.
On the other hand, the Japanese are people who have been
living in harmony with nature and worshipping all nature as
multiple gods. Even today, most of the people live in glossy-leaved
tree region which is green even in winter and Japanese cities withpopulations of one million or more except for Sapporo City, are
all located in glossy-leaved tree areas. However, the numbersof these trees, which support our life, are decreasing sharply.
Even in the world of green plants, we now have a lot of fakes :almost all green plants we now see were planted by human beings
as substitutes for indigenous trees, and so they are not genuine
indigenous trees.
Indigenous trees are highly durable even under severe
conditions. We must protect the remaining indigenous forests as
the basis for human life and reforest deforested areas. Unless we dothis, we will have no sound future even if science and technology
develop further.
Plant Trees

Fossil fuels such as coal and oil are plants from 300 million years
ago metamorphosed by ground pressure and heat. In the world of
300 million years ago, the Earth was in an interglacial period just248

as it is now, and the temperature and humidity were high. Duringthat period, ferns grew densely and formed great forests. They
absorbed CO2 by photosynthesis and subsequently the forests
were buried underground with the great changes the Earth wasundergoing, and during the subsequent 300 million years thebalance of material circulation on Earth was well maintained. Afterthe onset of the Industrial Revolution in the latter half of the 18th
century, humankind exploited coal and oil to use as energy sources.
This could be seen as though an act of pulling out the carbon
locked underground and spreading out into the air.
If we are to have a future where we really could live in, it isnecessary to refrain from abusing materials and energy as if they
were infinite resources, and instead reduce their consumption.
However, we cannot reduce the use of electricity and numbersof cars and factories to zero if we want to maintain our present
comfortable lifestyles. Then we must think positively in anarithmetic addition way instead of subtraction. Multilayered forests
composed by planting a mix of various seedlings densely withseedlings of the primary tree of potential natural vegetation in thecenter and surrounded by various others, will be able to play animportant role in disaster prevention and environmental protection
and help conserve biodiversity. Forests absorb CO2 and ﬁxate thesubstance within them. About 50% of the dry weight of a tree iscarbon. For example, if a seedling with a dry weight of 200 grams
grows to become a tree with a dry weight of two tons including theroot, stem and branches, one ton will be carbon. Unless the tree
is incinerated, the carbon will continue to be conﬁned in the tree
and thus in the forest. Forestation will deﬁnitely improve the local
environment and help prevent global warming.
We have so far planted 30 million or more trees withPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 249

cooperation from forward-looking governments, companies,
organizations, and citizens. The planted regions exceed 1,600
in number, and are located in Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, thePhilippines, India, China, South America ( Amazon ) , Kenyain Africa, and Tasmania in Australia. At all of these areas, we
identified potential natural vegetation through local ecologicalvegetation surveys and planted potted 30-centimeter wellrooted seedlings of the primary tree of the area s potential naturalvegetation and various other tree varieties according to the law of
the natural forest. In three years, the planted trees will no longer
need maintenance or weeding, because by then an indigenous
forest will begin to be formed through natural selection.
It is only a small act for a person to plant 10 to 20 trees, but if
all people on Earth̶6.7 billion citizens̶plant 10 trees each, what
will happen? Let us pursue forestation in creating real forests basedon plant ecology together with intensive energy conservation, forthe beneﬁt of ourselves, those whom we love, for humankind, andfor all living beings on the planet. This is Our Vision.

Fairness for Survival of
Humankind

Dr. Emil Salim
15th Blue Planet Prize laureate (2006)
Born in Indonesia in 1930, he graduated from the Facultyof Economics of the University of Indonesia in 1958
and earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the Universityof California at Berkeley in 1964. He became Professorof Economics, University of Indonesia in 1972 and was
appointed Indonesia s first environment minister in 1978.
Winning international acclaim for his pioneering action inenvironmental policy aimed at creating a sustainable society,he has been actively involved in the activities of the United
Nations. As a representative of the developing nations ofAsia, he has contributed to the international community
by exercising leadership in preservation of the global
environment.

250

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 251

Many developed countries started to grow since the Industrial
Revolution took place, fueled by fossil fuels as the main sourceof energy in the development of their industries (1790). Humans
cannot create natural resources; they can only transform natural
resources for development.
Humans cannot create coal as a source of energy; they
can only transform coal to man-made energy. By the law ofthermodynamics, transforming natural resources (fossil fuel)into energy will release polluting gases, such as carbon dioxide(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ﬂuorinated gases,
which are called greenhouse gases . These gases function to absorb
some of the infrared radiation produced by the Earth s surface.
The molecules of these various gases are released back into theatmosphere, where they trap heat in the Earth s atmosphere toprovide a comfortable climate to support life. When the amountof greenhouse gases increases, the concentration will affect theheat trapped in the Earth s atmosphere and will raise global
temperatures.
I. Climate Change

We are experiencing today an increase in the temperature of
our globe caused by an increased density of greenhouse gases.
The concentration of CO 2, the principal greenhouse gas in theatmosphere, reached 280 ppm prior to the Industrial Revolution.
But the burning of fossil fuels raised the concentration ofgreenhouse gases up to 315 ppm in 1930 and to 380 ppm in 2008.
If the business as usual pattern of development persists, by 2050
the concentration of greenhouse gases may well surpass 500 ppm.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC )identiﬁed the 450-550 ppm concentration of greenhouse gases as

252

the threshold above which global average temperature will be most
likely be maintained in the range of 2.0-2.8 degrees Celsius above
the pre-industrial level. To reach this level, global emission haveto be cut by 25 to 40% of the 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels
by 2020. Industrialized countries need to reduce 80% of their 1990
emissions by 2050, which is roughly a reduction of two tons ofCO2e per capita per year.
In Indonesia, sources of greenhouse gas emissions as CO2equivalentoriginate from peat ﬁres, changes in land use and forest use, energy
pollution, the burning of waste, and agriculture and industry. The
opening up of land and forests have had a significant impact on
raising CO2e emissions in Indonesia.
It is here that developing countries face a dilemma: to exploit
land and forest for food production and other income-generating
activities or to conserve it to remove greenhouse gases and to
reduce global warming.
Because the expansion of hot water molecules and the meltingof the ice at the poles are affected by global warming, the average
sea level will rise 9 to 88 cm by 2100. In Indonesia the impact of asea level rise is also evident: in Medan Harbor in North Sumatra it
has risen by 7.83 mm, in Semarang in Central Jawa by 9.27 mm, in
Surabaya in East Jawa by 5.47 mm, and in Jakarta by 4.38 mm, allregistered recently. With Jakarta s coastal area subsiding and sea
levels rising, ﬂooding is becoming an increasingly frequent natural
disaster.
Global warming also leads to coral bleaching. Combinedwith sea water acidification that kills plankton and destroys sea
habitat, the sustainability of fishing is in jeopardy, and this hits
the vulnerable Asian ﬁshermen, who are the poorest people in thePart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 253

region.
Archipelagos in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, like Indonesia,
the Paciﬁc Islands, the Philippines, the Maldives and other small
independent island states are potential victims that could beswallowed up either partially or wholly by sea level rises, while
none of the developing countries have the funds, technologicalcapabilities or capacity to cope with the challenges of a sea
level rise. For the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS ) , themaximum tolerable threshold for greenhouse gas emissions thatwill ensure that small island states will not be drowned by a rise in
the sea level is below 350 ppm.
Global warming inﬂuences the ﬂow of warmer seas into colder
ones, which affects local temperatures and induces changes inmonsoon patterns, sea waves, storms and hurricanes, but also
causes droughts. Water on land will evaporate faster, making fresh
water an increasingly scarce commodity. This will also affect water
dependent agriculture, especially irrigated rice production. Thereis hence an urgent need to discover seeds that are resilient against
drought.
Global warming and climate change affect the extinction of
species and eco-systems. Tropical regions of ASEAN and Papua
New Guinea, which are rich in tropical biological resources,
will suffer severe erosion of their biodiversity. IPCC projectedthat a surface temperature rise will increase the risk of increased
extinctions among 20 to 30% of plant and animal species,
combined with an erosion of biodiversity.
All these changes in global warming and climate will negatively
affect human health. While old diseases, like malaria andtuberculoses, are not fully eradicated, new diseases will emergethat are closely linked with climate change. Clearly it will be the254poor in the developing countries who will be the most vulnerable
to the impacts of global warming and climate change.
Efforts to reduce climate change must therefore be a top priority
for the developing countries. The grave consequences of climatechange on developing countries are fully known. The problem
is that developing countries have to cope with the equally, andperhaps currently more pressing problem of eradicating poverty.
Poverty has to be eradicated today; climate change can perhaps
be faced tomorrow by the developing countries, especially if
this common problem is also tackled seriously by the developed
countries. In the developing countries, the spending of one dollar
to eradicate poverty will be reduced if this one dollar is spent tocope with climate change issues. Whereas in developed countries
the spending of one dollar on climate change issues will reduce theamount spent on making life more comfortable.
The pressing issue for today is to develop partnerships between
developed and developing countries to tackle both poverty
eradication and climate change management simultaneously on thebasis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) that recognizes the common but differentiatedresponsibilities of all countries based upon their respective
capabilities.
This principle, according to Nicholas Stern, reflects several
aspects of equity: First, that on the grounds of ability to pay,
wealthier, more developed countries should support poorer
countries in their effort to adjust to climate change; Second, it
acknowledges that the largest share of historic and current global
emissions have originated in the developed countries, and thereby

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 255

historical responsibility or the polluters pay principle applies;
Third, it accounts for the relative size of per capita emissions indeveloping countries and the requirement to allow their relative
share of emissions to rise to accommodate their aspirations for
growth and poverty reduction. (Stern, 2006, 536).
While this principle has a moral, rational and an equitable
logic, the facts are that its implementation in accordance with
the UNFCCC is still being disputed and is considered by many
developed countries as a stumbling block that prevents fair sharingof the burden between the countries of the globe in coping withclimate change issues.

million people and Singapore with US$ 47,940 per capita for its 5
million people have surpassed the US income ﬁgure, neverthelessthey have been left out of the table because their populations are
small and the impact of their total national incomes on the global
economy is rather limited.
The US also stands out as the highest in terms of cumulativeenergy-related carbon dioxide emissions during the years 18502005 with 324.9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions,which at 22%, gives the US the largest share of total world
emission for 2005.

II. One Earth Contains A Diverse WorldThe Earth is one but the world is divided into developed anddeveloping countries. And the differences between the developed
and developing countries are real and many. Even amongdeveloped countries like the United States, the United Kingdom,
Germany, France, Japan and Australia there are importantdifferences as shown in Table 1
The United States with its 304 million people stands out as having
the highest per capita income at the Purchasing-Power-Parity rateof US$ 46,970 and total wealth per capita in 2000 of US$ 512,612
revealing aggregate wealth the nation has produced in the past,reflecting the value of all goods, resources, and services, including
natural, produced and intangible capital (World Development Report
2010, 373). Of all this total wealth, an amount of US$ 418,009
or close to 82% of this is intangible capital that includes raw labor,human capital, social capital and other factors such as the quality of
institutions.
Although Norway with US$ 58,090 per capita income for its 5

256

Table 1 Development Indicators for Selected Developed Countriesd
UnitedStatesNo

UnitedKingdom

Germany

Japan

FranceAustralia

World Total /Average

1

Population, Millions 2008

304

61

82

128

62

21

6.692

2

PPP Gross National$Income & per Capita 2008

46,97036,13035,94035,28034,40034,40010,357

3

Total Wealth $ per Capita
2000

512,612

408,753

496,447

493,241

468,024

371,031

95,6804Intangible Capital $ per
Capita 2000

418,009346,347

423,323

341,470

403,874

288,686

74,998

5

Average Annual Gross
Domestic Product Average
Annual % Growth 2000 2008

2.5

2.5

1.2

1.6

1.7

3.3

3.2

6

Cumulative Energy-related
Emissions in Billion MetricTons 1850 - 2005

324.9

68.1

117.8

46.1

31.7

12.5

1.1691

7

Per Capita Metric Tons
Emissions. 2005.

19.7

8.8

9.9

9.5

6.4

18.5

4.2

8

Share of Annual World
Total (%) Energy-related
CO2 Emissions

22.0

2.01

3.8

4.57

3.0

1.42

100%

9

Carbon Intensity MetricTons of CO2 per Thousand$ of GDP 2005

0.47

0.28

0.32

0.31

0.21

0.58

0.47

Source: World Development Report 2010

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 257

The United Kingdom, Germany, France and Japan had in 2008
similar high national incomes ( PPP ) per capita of between
US$34,000 and US$ 36,000. The total wealth per capita variedin 2000 between the lowest for the UK at US$ 408,753 and thehighest for Germany at US$ 496,447. Similarly intangible capitalvaries between the lowest for Japan at US$ 341,470 and the highest
for Germany at US$ 423,323.
Australia is rather unique. The country has a small populationof 21 million compared to 128 million people in Japan. Its PPP
income per capita of US$ 34,400 was close to Japan s incomeof US$ 35,280 in 2008. But it has a high energy-related carbon
dioxide per capita emissions of 18.5 metric tons, almost double
Japan s per capita emissions of 9.5 metric tons. Australia s carbon
intensity per thousands of dollar GDP is 0.58 metric tons, almost
double that of Japan (0.31) in 2005. Australia s cumulative energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions 1850-2005 was 12.5 metrictons compared to Japan s 46.1 metric tons. Australian emissions
are 37% of Japan s emissions, while its population is only 16% ofJapan s population.
With their high income, total wealth and intangible capital,
developed countries have ample room to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions without reducing their standard of living.
If we analyze selected developing countries development indicators
as in Table II, it becomes clear that the Republic of Korea, Brazil,
South Africa, China, India and Indonesia together have 2.984 billion
people or close to 45% of the world population of 6.692 billion. In
terms of income, total wealth as well as intangible capital,
all these heavily populated developing countries are far below thedeveloped countries level.

258

It is in terms of cumulative energy-related emissions 18502005 per billion metric tons and per capita carbon dioxide
emissions that developing countries are lower than the developed
countries.

Table 2 Development Indicators for Selected Developing Countries
Republicof KoreaNo

BrazilSouth
AfricaChina

Indonesia

India

World Total /Average

1

Population, Millions 2008

49

192

49

1.326

228

1.140

6.692

2

PPP Gross National $Income & per Capita 2008

28,12010,070

9,780

6,020

3,830

2,960

10,357

3

Total Wealth $ per Capita
2000

141,282

86,922

59,629

9,387

13,8196,820

95,6804Intangible Capital $ per
Capita 2000

107,864

70,526

48,959

4,208

8,015

3,758

74,998

5

Average Annual Gross
Domestic Product Average
Annual % Growth 2000 2008

4.5

3.6

4.3

10.4

5.2

7.9

3.2

6

Cumulative Energy-related
Emissions in Billion MetricTons 1850 - 2005

9.0

8.8

14.1

94.3

6.8

28.6

1.1691

7

Per Capita Metric Tons
Emissions. 2005.

9.3

1.8

7.1

3.9

1.6

1.1

4.2

8

Share of Annual World
Total (%) Energy-related
CO2 Emissions

1.69

1.26

1.25

19.06

1.31

4.33

100%

9

Carbon Intensity MetricTons of CO2 per Thousand$ of GDP 2005

0.44

0.21

0.83

0.96

0.49

0.47

0.47

Source: World Development Report 2010

Only China with 94.3 billions tons has high cumulative carbon
dioxide accumulated during 1850-2005 compared to Germany(117.8 billion tons) and the USA (324.9 billion tons). India with28.6 billion tons of cumulative energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions 1850-2005 has a lower level than the USA, the UK,

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 259

Germany, France and Japan. These performances have beenreached by China with a population of 1.326 billion and India with
1.140 billion people.
With low incomes per capita, low total wealth and intangible
capital but large populations, the developing countries have to
face the humane task of raising people s standards of living. Thisdrives developing countries growth rates, ranging from a low 3.6%
(Brazil) to a high growth rate per annum of 10.4% (China) during
2000-2008, while developed countries have achieved a lower rateof growth ranging from a low 1.2% (Germany) to a high 3.3%
(Australia).
But high growth also leads towards high pollution. This
explains why the carbon intensity of developing countries has ahigher range, from 0.47 (India) to 0.96 (China) than the developed
countries, which range from 0.21 (France) to 0.58 (Australia).
Lack of clean technology, technical know-how, lack of thecapacity to implement a low-carbon growth path and limited
funding has forced developing countries to follow the businessas usual model of development, with rising greenhouse gas
emissions.
The burden of responsibility to save our only one Earththerefore rests on the shoulders of the developed countries who
have the financial capacity, technology, intangible capital andinfluence to lead this diverse world, and assist the developing
countries in following sustainable development along the low
carbon pathway.
This was the rationale behind the creation of the Annex I Parties
in the UNFCCC and the Annex B Parties in the Kyoto Protocol,
consisting of developed countries that are requested to put a legallybinding ceiling on their emissions on an individual country basis to260

enable them together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
On the basis on their scientiﬁc ﬁndings, the IPCC recommended
that 25 to 40% of CO2e emission levels for 1990 should be reduced
by 2020 in order to bend the curve of CO2e emissions so that it
would not exceed, but instead would stabilize at the 450-490 ppm
level to keep global warming below the additional 2.0-2.4 degrees
Celsius level above pre-industrial revolution temperatures.
Data submitted to the UNFCCC reveals that up to 2007,
greenhouse gas emissions from the Annex I Parties of the
UNFCCC have been reduced only by 4% below the 1990 level,
and the industrialized countries in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol
have achieved around 16% below the Kyoto baseline. Muchof the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions comes from theeconomic decline of economies in transition in Eastern and Central
Europe in the 1990s. But since 2000, emissions from this group ofcountries are also increasing. In spite of the recent economic crisis
that brought a slowdown in the global economy, greenhouse gas
emissions are still increasing. This indicates that no fundamental
change in development towards a low carbon growth pathway
has taken place, in spite of the fact that the developed countries
have the ﬁnancial and technological abilities, and the developing
countries are anxious to cope with reducing greenhouse gas
emissions together with eradicating poverty.
With this trend in unsustained growth, the diverse countries of
the world are endangering the sustainability of our only one Earth.
III. Fairness for Survival of Humankind

Since the Second Development Decade 1970-1980 was launchedfour decades ago, the stumbling block has always been the
reluctance of the developed countries to transfer technology andPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 261

financial funds to the developing countries. This is now being
repeated in settling the issue of climate change. There is no doubtthat developing countries are increasing their greenhouse gas
emissions from the energy needed to support their development.
China has increased their current greenhouse gas emissions to 7.5
GtCO2, which has surpassed the US ﬁgure of 7.4 (see Table 3).
China s cumulative CO2 combustion emissions 1850-2004 are
27% of those of the US. China s GHG emissions per capita are
23% of those emitted by the US. China uses only 21% of the amountthe US used for residential electricity consumption. Fossil fuel isused for only two vehicles per 100 people in China compared to 80
vehicles per 100 in the US.
This comparison must be understood while keeping in mind thehuge difference in China s population of 1.330 million as against
the US population of 304 million.

Table 3 Comparison of Energy Statistics for the US and China
No

United States

China

1

Population (Millions)

304

1330

2

Greenhouse Gas Emissions per
Capita (tCO2 e)

25.0

5.8

3

Current Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (Gt CO2 e)

7.4

7.5

4

Cumulative CO2 Combustion
Emissions 1850 - 2004 (Gt)

325

89

5

Residential Electricity
Consumption (TWh)

1.359

292

6

Vehicles per 100 Population

802

Source: Deborah Seligsohn, Robert Hilmayr, Xiaomei Tan, Lutz Weischer, "China, the United States, andthe Climate Change Challenge" in World Resource Policy Brief, October 2009262

In spite of these differences, the Chinese Government haslaunched its China s National Climate Change Program 2007 withbold initiatives to reduce the energy intensity of the GDP by 20%
over the period from 2006 to 2010, increasing alternative energy inthe fuel mix to 15% by 2020 and increasing forestation cover to 20%
of China s land mass by the end of 2010. (Seligsohn cs, in World
Resource Institute Policy Brief, October 2009).
In their share of the annual world total of energy-related CO2
emissions, both the US (22%) and China (19.06%) share almost
half of the world s emissions. It will be very important for bothcountries to decide to cut greenhouse gas emissions to prevent
global warming overshooting the 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level by 2050.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005 as
the UNFCCC s binding agreement, has set for the Annex I
industrialized countries a target amount of an average 5.2%
reduction against the 1990 level over the period from 2008 to
2012. This has not been reached. For the post 2012 period, theshared vision of Bali COP 13 was to strive for 450 ppm CO2econcentrations to prevent surpassing the 2 degrees Celsius increasein global warming above the pre-industrial level, by reducing CO2eemissions by the developed countries to between 25 and 40% of
the 1990 levels by 2020.
To achieve the reduction target, the IPCC has stressed that it canbe achieved by deploying a portfolio of technologies that are currently
available or expected to be commercialized in the coming decades.
It requires effective incentives for the development, acquisition,
deployment and diffusion of technologies and the addressing ofrelated barriers (IPPC, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report).
This shared vision to limit CO2e emissions within a specificPart 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 263

time frame requires a changing paradigm of economics that needs
to be constrained by social and ecological considerations. It also
requires fair trade, with fairness in development as the main
driving force, instead of free trade and a complete disregard for thesurvival of the poor in developing countries.
In these climate change negotiations there are many rational
solutions that are do-able. To come to an agreement, the mainstumbling block is that the business as usual paradigm is usedwith each nation s narrow economic and political interests withina short-term perspective. National surpass global interests. Humanwants exceed human needs. To save our only one Earth, the world
needs leaders with a global perspective that goes beyond nationalboundaries.
It also requires changing the conventional economic development
paradigm into the sustainable development paradigm alreadylaunched at the 1992 Rio-de-Janeiro Summit on Environment andDevelopment and reemphasized at the 2002 Johannesburg Summit
on Sustainable Development.
For too long the world has witnessed diverse nations plundering
the Earth, where the early ones gained substantially while thelatecomers suffer the most. As latecomers, the developing countries
need to be given a fair opportunity to eradicate hunger, disease,poverty and illiteracy. Unless they are given the technology, thecapability and the necessary funding, developing countries areforced to demand a fair right to pollute the atmosphere.
In the meantime, in striving for the survival of humankind, thenations that are the developing countries must continue to move
forward and muddle through to search for that particular road toeradicating poverty that also simultaneously reduces greenhousegas emission that is based on a spirit of fairness.

264

References

1. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, 2006 pages 536-537
2. World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate
Change, The World Bank
3. Deborah Seligsohn, Robert Heilmayr, Xiaomei Tan, Lutz
Weischer, China, the United States, and the Climate Change
Challenge, World Resource Institute Policy Brief, October 2009
4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change
2007, Synthesis Report, 2007

Part 3 Messages from the Blue Planet Prize Laureates 265

Notes(UNEP). Researchers from various countries make scientific, technological, social,Part 2 Conditions for Survivaland economic assessments on global warming caused by greenhouse gases for theorganization, which makes the results, including knowledge and information, widely
accessible to the public as its principal role. The fourth assessment report was createdby about 450 authors and about 800 supporters for authors from about 130 countries.

Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme

10 Precipitation per unit time expressed in millimeters
1

Dr. Dennis L. Meadows2

Dr. Gro Harlem Brundland: Blue Planet Prize laureate for 2004

3

The ecological footprint is an indicator that shows how much we rely on the naturalenvironment in leading our lives. It is a measure of human demand expressed as thearea of biologically productive land and sea needed to supply the required resources
and to absorb CO2 released by burning fossil fuels. The indicator is 1.0 if the total areaof biologically productive land and sea on the Earth is needed to meet the requirement.
It was about 1.3 in 2005.

4

Mr. Lester R. Brown

5

Questionnaire on Environmental Problems and the Survival of Humankind (Asahi
Glass Foundation) : Conducted annually since 1992 and targeting governmentalofﬁcials and experts in the private sector around the world. The results are publicly
announced in the form of a report. (Number of people asked to reply: about 4,000,
reply rate: 15 to 19%, number of respondents: 650 to 700)

11 Here water resources mean the annual precipitation in each country used deducting thethe amount of evaporation.
12 An article dated May 22, 2007 in the Guardian, a British national daily newspaper,
reported as follows: according to some Chinese cancer researchers, a lot of chemicalfactories and industrial facilities were established along rivers, into which untreatedwastewater has been released. Moreover, underground water is polluted by theexcessive use of fertilizers and insecticides. In addition, over the period from 1991 to
2000, the number of death due to cancer increased by 18% in urban areas and by 11%
in rural areas.
13 The State of Food and Agriculture 2009, FAO

6

15 Countries shifting from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, including
former Soviet Union countries, countries in Eastern Europe, China, Mongolia, andVietnam
16 Press release from the FAO Liaison Ofﬁce in Japan (LOJA PR09/21-No. 142)

Meeting of energy ministers of the G8 (The United States, Canada, Germany, France,
Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Russia) + 3 (China, India, and North Korea)
held on June 8, 200817 Press release from the FAO Liaison Ofﬁce in Japan (LOJAPR09/21-No. 143)

8

International Energy Agency ( IEA ) : An international organization that conducts
surveys and prepares statistics on the world s energy issues and announces related data

19 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC

9The IPCC is an organization established through cooperation between the World

7

266

The urban population represents the number of people living in the areas that aredeﬁned as cities according to the criteria of each country. In every year, the data as ofJuly 1 is used for that year.
Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database

14 According to a book on the world s food production and biomass energy and theirprospects for 2050. Author: Hiroyuki Kawashima, published by the University ofTokyo Press in 200818 Press release from the FAO Liaison Ofﬁce in Japan (LOJAPR09/21-No 143)

20 Reference: The Atlas of WATER: Mapping the World s Most Critical Resources, Robin
Clarke and Janet King

Notes

267

21 Millennium Development Goals ( MDGs ) : The United Nations Millennium
Declaration, which set the goals for the 21st century, was adopted at the United
Nations Millennium Summit held in New York in September 2000. The Millennium
Development Goals were set as a framework incorporating the Declaration and theinternational development targets adopted at the major international conferences andsummits held in the 1990s. The goals to be achieved by 2015 are to eradicate extreme
poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality andempower women; reduce child mortality rates; improve maternal health; combat HIV/
AIDS, malaria, and other diseases; ensure environmental sustainability; and develop a
global partnership for development.
22 In addition, it was promised that support would be given for developing countries
to formulate and implement development strategies to adapt to climate change andthat the development and commercialization of second-generation biofuels would
be accelerated. The biofuels are to be produced from non-food plants and uneatablebiomass, in order to make the policies for the sustainable production and use of
biofuels compatible with measures for food security.

28 Dr. Norman Myers
29 CO2 emissions: In this case, decreases in the amount of CO2 absorbed by forests arecalculated as CO2 emissions.
30 Biodiversity friendly products and services are to be sold at higher prices.
31 The TEEB research project was launched at the meeting of the environment ministersof the G8 + 5 held in Potsdam, Germany. It is intended to create survey reportsthat will show the economic and social losses caused by the loss of ecosystems andbiodiversity and to propose speciﬁc measures to deal with the biodiversity crisis.
32 No past reports have shown that genetically modiﬁed organisms have greatly changed
biodiversity in Japan. There is however no scientiﬁc guarantee that these organisms
will not have an impact on biodiversity in the future. Genetically modiﬁed organisms
might invade local ecosystems, intercross with native species, and the substances
generated by genetically modified organisms might also have an impact on native
species.

23 Dr. Charles D. Keeling: Blue Planet Prize laureate for 1993
33 Dr. James E. Lovelock
24 Annex I Countries refer to the Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. These countries have numerical emission reduction
targets and are listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, they are
Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco,
the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the RussianFederation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, the United
Kingdom, and the United States.
25 Major numerical targets for CO2 emissions reduction (from the 1990 level) set out
in the Kyoto Protocol: Eight percent for the EU, seven percent for the United States,and six percent for Japan, Canada, Hungary, Poland, and others. The United States,
however, abandoned the Kyoto Protocol for the reason that the Protocol would badly
affect their economy and that developing countries were not participating in it.
26 Human beings are both social and biological beings.
27 Lord (Robert) May of Oxford

268

34 Dr. Amory B. Lovins
35 Anticipatory approaches might fail, and it is therefore necessary to constantly review
and make corrections to the approaches.
36 Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich: Blue Planet Prize laureate for 1999
37 Hotspots mean areas with a lot of indigenous species, where ecosystems are seriously
threatened to destruction. Although these areas account for only about several percentof the Earth s surface, 75 percent of mammals, birds, and amphibians that are criticallyendangered and 50 percent of all vascular plants and 42 percent of all land vertebrates
are living in those areas.
38 International funding system to cover the additional cost to be paid to contribute tosolving global environmental problems in the projects implemented in developing
countries and countries in transition
39 An international NGO that conducts biodiversity conservation activities across theworld, which was also the Blue Planet Prize laureate for 1997

Notes

269

40 System in which funds flow continuously from developed countries which areeconomic beneficiaries of biodiversity to developing countries blessed withbiodiversity. It is discussed as a means of conserving biodiversity utilizing the market
mechanism, and studies are being made on how to trade conservation duties among
countries; international support for biodiversity conservation-related offset activities(activities that offset the loss of biodiversity due to development activities in one areawith conservation of biodiversity in other areas); taxation according to the impact on
biodiversity; and on the certiﬁcation systems for biodiversity friendly products.

predefined targets and certify the methods that actually meet the targets with aneye to promoting the conservation of forest ecosystems and the protection of rare
species. Organizations like the FSC, PEFC, and Japan s SGEC are engaged in thesecertiﬁcation activities.

41 toe: tons in oil equivalent (amount of energy derived from one ton of oil), Mtoe:
amount of energy derived from one million tons of oil
42 The Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme ( PVPS ) represents an agreement
designed for developed countries to improve their research abilities and exchange more
information on photovoltaic power generation. Led by the IEA, a range of projects forthe application of photovoltaic power generation are conducted through the network of
R&D teams of member states.
43 In addition to solid waste released from households and manufacturing processes, thisincludes waste gas, wastewater, and emissions from automobiles.
44 Based on the idea that manufacturers should be responsible not only for the
manufacture, sale, and use of their products but also for the disposal of those products,
manufacturing companies are encouraging the recovery, recycling, and appropriate
disposal of wasted products, such as end-of-life automobiles and home electricalappliances.
45 In order to support the lives of people in developing countries, agricultural and otherproducts are continuously purchased at appropriate prices that are higher than local
market prices. Also for sustainable development, environmentally friendly production
methods are recommended to producers and higher prices are paid to products
manufactured by such methods. There are also international organizations such as
the FLO, which are promoting the labeling of fair trade products based on certain
standards, with a view to helping consumers identify these products more easily.
46 Initiatives to certify products that contribute to the sustainable use of natural seafood
and to the conservation of marine ecosystems, as represented by the MSC certiﬁcation
program led by the WWF and the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)
47 Third-party organizations check whether forest management methods meet the

270

Notes

271

About the Asahi Glass Foundation
The Asahi Glass Foundation was established in 1933 as the Asahi Foundation
for Chemical Industry Promotion in commemoration of the 25th anniversary(in 1932) of the foundation of Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. Over most of its firsthalf century, excluding the confused post-war period, the Foundation focused
primarily on fostering research in applied chemistry. Subsequently in 1990,
the Foundation undertook the overall redesign of its programs, expanding thetarget of its research grants and establishing its commendation program. At
the same time, it changed its name to the Asahi Glass Foundation. Since then,the Foundation has been continuing its activities focusing on (1) the research
grant program designed to foster science and technology for future generations
and on (2) the Blue Planet Prize program as its two mainstays, with the aimof contributing to the creation of a society and culture that provides a truly
rich life to a wide range of people, and including initiatives to solve global
environmental problems.

Conditions for Survival
Toward a “Solar Energy-Based Society” Full of Vibrant Life

Published in November 2010

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