Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science & Technology‑‑Japan (MEXT)"Green Network of Excellence" (GRENE) Program

Arctic Climate Change Research Project
Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and
its Global Inﬂuences
2011-2016

To the Arctic

where you can see the future of the Earth

Core InstituteNational Institute of Polar Research (NIPR)
Associated InstituteJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)We are committed to Arctic climate research through the
Why is the Arctic now?

open questions regarding underlying mechanisms of the

The changes occurring in the Arctic are both substantial

Arctic change. The roles of solar activities, ozone depletion,and rapid, and diﬀerent parts of the Arctic climate system
are involved. The sea ice cover is retreating at an
alarming rate. The ocean and surface temperatures arerising. The current temperature rise in the Arctic is about
twice as much as the global average. Concurrent withthese changes the Greenland ice sheet is thinning, andpermafrost is thawing, which inevitably bring other changes
in the Arctic hydrological cycle and ecosystems
It has long been argued that the Arctic is the precursorof our changing planet. But beyond the presence of icealbedo feedback, which seems to accelerate both warmingof the ocean and melting of sea ice, there are so many

aerosols, clouds, methane and land processes andother factors involved in the Arctic change await better
explanation and clariﬁcation.

2(Photo: Masataka Shiobara, NIPR)

Over 300 scientists from 35 organizations are
participating in the Project
Recognizing this great scientific challenge we start a
new Japanese initiative "Arctic Climate Change Research
Project" within the framework of the GRENE (Green
Network of Excellence) Program funded by the Ministryof Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology‑‑
Japan (MEXT) .

GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project.
The Project is funded for 5 years starting in FY2011 andmodel and observational studies. Their results complement

jointly managed by the National Institute of Polar Researchto each other. Model results help to interpret observations(NIPR) and JAMSTEC. Four strategic research targets
are set: ① Understanding the mechanism of warming
amplification in the Arctic, ② Understanding the Arctic
system for global climate and future change, ③ Evaluationof the impacts of Arctic change on weather and climate inJapan, marine ecosystems and ﬁsheries, and ④ Projectionof sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Now over 300
scientists from 35 organizations are participating in the
Project, tackling all aspects of the Arctic climate system;
the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land and ecosystems
from a multi-disciplinary approach.
The Project also fosters close collaboration between

while observations are used to constrain models andvalidate model outputs. Data archiving efforts in the
Project further enhance this close relationship between
model and observational studies. Last but not least, theProject seeks and promotes international collaboration
with other institutes in various nations, which is essential
for Arctic research, while the Japan Consortium for Arctic
Environmental Research (JCAR) is founded to bolster
Arctic research activities within Japan.

Research Projects

Strategic Research Targets
Understanding themechanism of warming
amplification in the Arctic(1) Improvement of coupled general circulation models based on
validations of Arctic climate reproducibility and on mechanism
analyses of Arctic climate change and variability(2) Change in the terrestrial ecosystems of the pan-Arctic and eﬀects
on climate

Strategic Research Targets
Understanding theArctic system for global
climate and future change(3) Atmospheric studies on Arctic change and its global impacts(4) The role of Arctic cryosphere in global change(5) Studies on greenhouse gas cycles in the Arctic and their
responses to climate change

Evaluation of the impactsof Arctic change on weather
and climate in Japan, marine
ecosystems and fisheries(6) Ecosystem studies on the Arctic Ocean declining sea ice(7) Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes
Changes in the Arctic Ocean and mechanisms of catastrophic
reduction of Arctic sea ice
Sea ice prediction and construction of an ice navigation support
system for the Arctic sea routes
Coordinated observational and modeling studies on the basic
structure and variability of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system

Projection of sea ice
distribution and Arctic
sea routes

3Strategic Research Target ①

Understanding the mechanism ofwarming ampliﬁcation in the Arctic
Principal Investigator

Toru Nozawa National Institute for Environmental Studies
Clarifying physical mechanism of
the Arctic warming ampliﬁcation
According to the Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), theglobal average surface temperature has
increased by about 0.74 °C in the past
100 years (1906 to 2005). Average
Arctic temperatures increased at almost
twice the global average warming ratein this period. Arctic region is one ofthe places where the impact of climatechange is the most significant in theworld. The mechanism of warming
amplification in the Arctic is, however,still not well understood.
When the surface temperature
increases in the Arctic region, snowcovered areas, glaciers, ice sheets, andsea-ice extent retreat and therefore
the surface albedo decreases, leading
to further increases in the surface
temperature. This ice-albedo feedback
is one of the major contributors to the
Arctic warming amplification. However,
the ice-albedo feedback alone cannot
explain the observed rapid warming in
the Arctic; feedback in the atmosphere(water vapor, clouds, lapse rate, etc.),changes in permafrost and vegetation,
carbon-cycle feedback, changes inatmospheric and oceanic heat transport,
etc. also bring on the Arctic climatechange.
In the GRENE Arctic Climate Change
Research Project, we aim at elucidating
the mechanism of the Arctic warming
amplification by integrated analysesof the observations and numericalsimulations.
Collaboration between modellingand observational studies
The following four research projects
are collaboratively conducted toachieve strategic research target① Understanding the mechanism ofwarming ampliﬁcation in the Arctic.
（1）Improvement of coupled generalcirculation models based on
validations of Arctic climate
reproducibility and on mechanism
analyses of Arctic climate change
and variability（2）Change in the terrestrial ecosystemsof the pan-Arctic and eﬀects on
climate（3）Atmospheric studies on Arctic
change and its global impacts（4）The role of Arctic cryosphere inglobal change
Observational research projects (2),(3) and (4) are aiming at cooperatively
launching a pan-Arctic observation
network including station-based andsatellite-based observations. In addition
to the previous observations in Siberia,
Alaska, Canada, etc., comprehensive
and wide-area observations will enable
us to monitor and understand the overall
Arctic climate changes.
Collaboration between modelling andobservational studies is very importantin the GRENE Arctic Climate Change
Research Project. Observational data isnecessary to validate and constrain themodel results, and the numerical models
are useful to interpret observations.
We will promote close and tightcommunications between modelling andobservational studies and implement theirjoint researches to achieve the strategic
research target ① .
Expected results
By conducting integrated researchusing modelling and observations, wewill quantify relative contributions ofvarious feedback mechanisms and theirinteraction in the recent rapid warming in
the Arctic. This would make a substantial
contribution to an improvement of thecoupled general circulation models,helping us to reproduce the Arctic
climate changes in the past with ahigh degree of accuracy and reducing
uncertainties in the future predictions of
the Arctic warming.

Warming enhanced in the Arctic andspreading globally(Source: Toru Nozawa, NIES)

Atmospheric measurement

4(Photo: Yoshihiro Tachibana, Mie Univ.)

Strategic Research Target ②

Understanding the Arctic system for
global climate and future change
Principal Investigator

Atsuko Sugimoto Hokkaido University
Arctic climate change isspreading globally
The Arctic environment is rapidlychanging, and the changes are spreading
throughout the entire world like ripples,
carried by atmospheric and oceanic
circulation. A better understanding of thecurrent change in the Arctic environment
and its eﬀect on global climate change isrequired for a more accurate predictionof global climate change and of our
future.
In order to achieve strategic researchtarget ② , Understanding the Arctic
system for global climate and futurechange, we are working on the following
ﬁve research projects.
（1） Improvement of coupled generalcirculation models based on
validations of Arctic climate
reproducibility and on mechanism
analyses of Arctic climate change
and variability（2）Change in the terrestrial ecosystemsof the pan-Arctic and eﬀects on
climate（3）Atmospheric studies on Arctic
change and its global impacts（4）The role of Arctic cryosphere inglobal change（5）Studies on greenhouse gas cycles
in the Arctic and their responses toclimate change
The Arctic inﬂuences global warming
Project (5), which addresses
greenhouse gases has been added toresearch projects (1) to (4)), which arecommon to strategic research target①. The increase in concentrations ofgreenhouse gases, such as carbon
dioxide and methane, is accelerating
warming. In this 100-year period, theaverage global air temperature has risen
by about 0.74℃, and it is highly possiblethat the increase in greenhouse gases
from manmade sources is a factor.
How will this warming progress in the
future? The role of the Arctic region is
crucial when we consider this aspect.
As a result of the rapid warming of the
Arctic, the area of sea ice and snow
cover has been decreasing. The warmingof the Arctic is believed to be progressing
as a result of changes in the land surface
and the circulation of energy, water, andother materials. Moreover, the rise in air
temperature is beyond a doubt thawing
the permafrost. As the permafrost thaws

Leaf area index estimated by satellite
observation of northern forests

Observation of vegetation(Chorkurdakh, Russia)

Leaf area index calculated
by a model of northern forests(Source: Takeshi Ise, University of Hyogo)

Leaf Area Index

Multi-model predictions of the sea-level
rise due to the warming(Photo: Atsuko Sugimoto, Hokkaido Univ.)

Ice sheet survey（YOSHIMORI and ABE-OUCHI (2012). Sources of Spreadin Multimodel Projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Surface Mass Balance, J. Climate, 25, 1157-1175. DOI:
10.1175/2011JCLI4011.1）(Photo: Hideaki Motoyama, NIPR)

gradually, the methane and organic
matter trapped within its ice are released.
The decomposition of this organic matteris thought to increase the amount ofgreenhouse gases released into theatmosphere. Changes in soil temperatureand soil moisture alter the rate of plant
growth and the species of plants.
Changing the state of the land surface
alters the behavior of energy, water, andmaterial cycles, and may in turn trigger
further changes. The extensive wetlandsof the Arctic region naturally releasemethane (a potent greenhouse gas) into
the atmosphere; however the rise insoil temperature and the changes in thevegetation will increase the amount ofmethane released, which may accelerate
global warming.
The necessity ofa global climate model
Global climate models are currently
used to predict climatic changes over theentire world. Unfortunately, these models
do not sufficiently take into accountchanges in snow cover, permafrost
and vegetation, and so they can notproduce forecasts with a high degree of
accuracy. We simply do not sufficiently
understand how the snow cover,permafrost, vegetation and greenhousegases are changing as a result of thewarming of the Arctic region. The firststep is to understand these changes bymaking observations, and to develop
models that take into account thechanges taking place on land.
In Greenland, located in the Arctic
region, the ice sheets are rapidly
decreasing. The melting of the ice sheets
causes sea levels to rise. The area off
the coast of Greenland is a starting point
for general circulation of the ocean
because the seawater there cools,
becomes heavier and sinks deep below.
The fresh water running off from themelting ice sheets into the ocean lowers
the density of the surrounding seawaterand could therefore weaken the generalcirculation of the ocean. This would
trigger tremendous climate change on a
global scale. Nevertheless, current global
climate models do not sufficiently take
into account the changes in ice sheetsand glaciers. We will get an insight into
these changes through our observations,and will develop models for sea levelchange.
Expected results
Development of models for changes in
the land system and models for changes
in sea level is expected to enable
scientists to quantify the changes tovarious factors, such as snow cover,frozen soil, vegetation, greenhouse gases,
ice sheets, glaciers and sea levels, which
are strongly affected by Arctic climatechange. By incorporating these elements
into global climate models, our researchon the Arctic system will contribute toenhance predictions, not only for theArctic, but also for the global climate in
the future.

5

Strategic Research Target ③

Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on weather andclimate in Japan, marine ecosystems and ﬁsheries③atheir impacts on the weather
Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change evaluate
and climate in Japan.
Expected results
on weather and climate in Japan
By gaining a better understanding of the
Principal Investigator

Jinro Ukita Niigata University
Arctic teleconnection
No part of the Earth's climate system isindependent from the rest. The weather
and climate in Japan are not exceptions.
Scorching summers and severe winters
in Japan are sometimes attributed toinfluences from remote places. Our
weather and climate are linked to El
Niño and La Niña conditions, which
are coupled oceanic and atmosphericphenomena centered over the tropical
Pacific. In recent years we are
beginning to understand that the Arctic
also exerts influences by changing
atmospheric circulation. This is referred
to as "atmospheric teleconnection". In
facing the rapid Arctic changes such assea ice reduction, warming in the Arctic
Ocean and the surrounding continents,and other accompanying changes in thehydrology and biosphere, our primarytask here is to better understandphysical and chemical mechanisms ofthis Arctic teleconnection, which resultsfrom an interplay of many different
processes in clouds, aerosols, radiationand circulation. Our previous studies hintthat a meandering of the westerly jet
stream and other circulation anomalies
such as strong Siberia and Okhotsk
high pressure systems are relevantto the Arctic teleconnection. Here weseek detailed explanations about theunderlying processes involved andunderlying processes of teleconnection
from the Arctic, we provide both
qualitative and quantitative assessmenton the impacts of the Arctic change on
the weather and climate in Japan.

Arctic influences over Japan
Atmospheric heating
Meandering jet

H
Cold winter③b

and analyses using historical
Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change projectand observational data can reveal
on-going changes in the Arctic
on marine ecosystems and ﬁsheries
Ocean environment. Important multiPrincipal Investigator

Agency for Marine-Earth
Takashi Kikuchi Japan
Science and Technology

Is the decrease in sea ice favourable
or unfavourable for the Arctic
marine ecosystem and ﬁsheries?
The decrease in the sea ice causesa change in the characteristics of theseawater in the Arctic Ocean, such astemperature, salinity, and nutrients aswell as ocean currents. It also affects
the lives of marine microbes, planktons,
fishes, and other mammals. Marine
ﬁsheries resources such as cod, salmon
and crab are no exception. This raises
the questions: Is the decrease in sea ice
favourable or unfavourable for Arctic
marine ecosystems and fisheries?
How does sea ice variability, i.e., ice
melting/formation, ice motion, seasonal
cycle, and recent inter-annually rapid
decrease, affect the Arctic Ocean
environments from physical, chemicaland biological points of view? To
achieve strategic research target ③
b: Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic
change on marine ecosystem andfisheries, we initiate the following

6

research project.
（6）Ecosystem studies on the Arctic
Ocean declining sea ice
The purpose of this project is to clarify
and predict the influences of sea ice
reduction in the Arctic Ocean on marine
ecosystem and fisheries resources.
For this purposes, we will conduct
ﬁeld observations in the Paciﬁc side of
the Arctic Ocean, satellite monitoringon sea ice and marine environments,
and numerical simulations to acquirea detailed understanding of on-goingenvironmental changes and future
conditions. Not only biological but also
physical and chemical processes are
involved in the Arctic environmental
changes caused by the recent sea ice
reduction. Therefore, this project will
pay particular attention to linking multidisciplinary studies on the Arctic Ocean,i.e., physical, chemical, and biologicaloceanography.
Expected outcomes
Field measurement during thedisciplinary processes which causesuch environmental changes arealso clarified. Development of marine
ecosystem models for the Arctic Ocean
can bring to light detailed information
on on-going environmental changes andmay help in predicting future changes inﬁsheries resources and population sizes.

Changes in dynamics onmarine mammals and seabirds
in the Arctic Ocean

Impact to distribution, production, size,and delivery of microbe, phytoplankton
and zooplankton

Changes in hydrographic and geochemical
conditions due to rapid sea ice reduction

Very rapid sea ice reduction

Strategic Research Target ④

Projection of sea ice distribution and
Arctic sea routes
Principal Investigator

Koji Shimada Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
Linking the Paciﬁc and Atlantic by
the shortest route
Environmental changes in the Arctic
Ocean have already stretched beyond
the frame of a scientiﬁc problem, and are
attracting social attention. The reductionof the sea ice area is expected to makethe Arctic sea routes useable, which
will be the shortest link between the
Paciﬁc and Atlantic Oceans. Under thesecircumstances, understanding of the
dynamics of Arctic sea ice is absolutely
essential for the safe use of the Arctic
Ocean.
The following research projects arebeing carried out to achieve strategic
research target ④ Projection of sea ice
distribution and Arctic sea routes.
a. Changes in the Arctic Ocean
and mechanisms of catastrophic
reduction of Arctic sea ice
The reduction of Arctic sea ice has
accelerated beyond the prediction of
any climate model; the mechanism of
the reduction is, however, still unclear.
The mechanisms of the Arctic sea ice
reduction must be elucidated urgently
in order to build an Arctic sea ice
forecasting system. In sub-project (a),we will clarify the mechanisms of the
Arctic sea ice reduction based on insitu observations and satellite data fromJapan Aerospace Exploration Agency.
Through a series of joint observations
with overseas Arctic researchobservational agencies, the GRENE
Arctic Climate Change Research Projectis using foreign icebreakers that are
essential for in-situ observations in the
Arctic Ocean. These in-situ observations
include hydrographic observations andalso utilize moored observation systems
that can measure sea ice movement
and thickness, the water temperature,salinity, and the direction/speed of ocean
current under the sea ice.
b. Sea ice prediction and constructionof an ice navigation support system
for the Arctic sea routes
An area of navigable water appears
only during summer time when the Arctic
sea ice shrinks. By early spring whenshipping schedules are planned, people
need to know when the Arctic Ocean will
be ice-free. Since the sea ice distribution
is changing constantly, scientists arebuilding a system to predict sea ice on adaily to monthly time scale.
c. Coordinated observational andmodeling studies on the basic
structure and variability of the Arctic
sea ice-ocean system
A numerical model of the Arctic Ocean
is required for highly accurate sea ice
forecasts. To this end, scientists aredeveloping a model that can reproduce
the complex oceanic structure involving
the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean
and various rivers, and simulate thedevelopment of sea ice and oceanic
structures. Scientists will use this model
to build a system to predict Arctic sea ice
distribution over a scale that will range
for a season to several decades.

Expected results
Clarifying the mechanism for the rapid
reduction of sea ice and building a modelfor the oceanic structure of the Arctic
Ocean will contribute to the building ofa forecasting system for Arctic sea ice.
This will enable people to determine thefeasibility of the Arctic sea routes.

Distribution of sea ice on the day when its total area of coverage is
at a minimum and Arctic sea routes(AMSR-E data, Source: JAXA)

1979

2007

New York

2011

Atlantic Ocean
CanadaGreenland
LondonPacific Ocean

East Siberian Sea
Siberia
To Japan7

Research Projects（1）

Improvement of coupled general circulation models based on
validations of Arctic climate reproducibility and on mechanism
analyses of Arctic climate change and variability
Principal Investigator

Toru Nozawa National Institute for Environmental Studies

By conducting the following three sub-themes,
we are aiming at improving the reliability of future
Arctic climate change projected by the coupledgeneral circulation models.
The first sub-theme is the validation of themodels' ability to reproduce the Arctic climate.
By comparing the simulation results fromcoupled general circulation models with various
observation data stored in the Arctic Data
Archive of the GRENE Arctic Climate Change
Research Project, we will make assessments on
the reproducibility of mean climate states, naturalvariability, and long-term climate changes in the

Arctic. We will also investigate the cause of biases
in the coupled general circulation models to help
reduce them.
The second sub-theme is to understand themechanisms of Arctic climate variability andchange, and to identify their causes. Based on
analyses of changes in the atmospheric radiation,snow cover, permafrost, vegetation, sea ice, ice
sheet, etc., from many diﬀerent perspectives, wewill acquire a better understanding of the Arctic
warming amplification mechanism. Our analyses
will involve a wide range of methods, including
climate feedback analysis as well as multivariate▶ Example of climate
feedback analysis.
Changes in vegetation
enhance the warmingin the Arctic by around
20% through changes insnow cover and sea ice.

statistical analysis.
The third sub-theme is the development andimprovement of component models in the coupledgeneral circulation models. Utilizing the new
findings and enhanced understanding acquired
from the previous sub-themes, we will develop
new, or improve existing, component models forsnow cover, permafrost, sea ice, ice sheets, water
isotopes, etc. which are important processes in
the Arctic climate. Eventually, this will help makethe coupled general circulation models moresophisticated and elaborated.
We will also closely collaborate withobservational studies by, for example, constructing
a new observational data set to validate thesimulation results of coupled general circulation
models. Through this kind of collaboration
between modelling and observational studies, weare aiming to contribute to the achievement ofstrategic research targets ① Understanding themechanism of warming ampliﬁcation in the Arctic,
and ② Understanding the Arctic system for global
climate and future change.

(Source: Ryouta O'ishi, The University of Tokyo)

Research Project（2）

Change in the terrestrial ecosystems of the pan-Arctic
and eﬀects on climate
Principal Investigator

Atsuko Sugimoto Hokkaido University

The Arctic terrestrial system consists ofelements such as snow cover, permafrost, soil/
vegetation, and water. We believe that the meltingof permafrost, change in the albedo throughthe changes in snow cover and vegetation,and changes in the amount of greenhouse gas
emissions have an enormous effect on not only
the Arctic climate but also global warming. We
aim to clarify the role and function of the Arctic
terrestrial system in the climate system, andassess the inﬂuence of changes in the Arctic on a
global scale.

To achieve this goal, we need to understandthe state of the Arctic terrestrial system under arapidly changing environment. We will make ﬁeld
observations on frozen soil, vegetation, productionof ecosystems, carbon storage, snow cover andalbedo, and methane emission, etc.
To understand the terrestrial ecosystemthroughout the circum-polar Arctic region, we
will continue our observations at existing fieldobservation sites, where individual researchers
have set up their own systems for long-term
observations. We will also set up new sites to▶ Boring of permafrost(Photo: Atsuko Sugimoto, Hokkaido Univ.)

8

combine observations using a mobile system
to monitor spatial variation and multiple site
observations with simple soil temperatureprobes. Satellite data will also be used for special
evaluations, and tree-ring width and isotope
data will be taken to investigate environmental
changes over a century-long time span. Basedon this observational data, we will carryout interdisciplinary studies involving bothobservation-based and model-based researchers,
and then develop terrestrial system models thatcan reproduce realistic changes in the thawingof frozen soil, vegetation, and greenhouse gas
emissions.
By carrying out these research projects, wewill contribute to the achievement of strategic
research targets ① Understanding the mechanismof warming amplification in the Arctic, and ②
Understanding the Arctic system for global climate
and future change.

Research Projects（3）

Atmospheric studies on Arctic change and its global impacts
Principal Investigator

Jinro Ukita Niigata University
A set of three questions must be addressed when
we study underlying causes and mechanisms for
the Arctic change. First we ask the question of
how the Arctic climate system is inﬂuenced by therest of the global climate system. It is under theinﬂuence of the CO2 increase. The amounts of heatand moisture transported to the Arctic region may
be increasing due to global warming. Yet, we do
not know the details. The second question looks
into processes more internal to the Arctic. Without
doubt the ice-albedo feedback process is critical.
The smaller the coverage of sea ice the larger
the amount of heat entering the upper ocean,thus accelerating the speed of sea ice reduction.
Beyond, we have very limited knowledge on how
things operate within the Arctic climate system.
For example it is not a simple question as to how

Solar inﬂuence
Ozone
Wave propagation

Feedbacks andinternal processes
Ice-albedo
Black carbon
Aerosol-cloud

Main ice
production area

aerosol

Moisture

H

Cold air advection

Substance

L◀ Key processes andelements of the Arctic
climate system

Ice advection

cloudsTransports of
Heat

Oceanic processes
Freshwater balance
Cold halocline
Nutrients andacidiﬁcation

H Siberia HighPolar Lows

CO2 and Methane

N/AO and
Icelandic Low

2012年3月9日金曜日

internal processes and teleconnection, relevantto the Arctic change. Our overall goal is to gain abetter understanding of key physical and chemical
processes relevant to the rapid changes in the
Arctic climate system and their global impacts.

the rapid reduction in sea ice is linked to thawingof permafrost and forest ﬁres in Siberia, thereby
modifying carbon cycle. Finally we ask how the
Arctic change exerts inﬂuences on weather andclimate outside the Arctic, especially those inJapan, through atmospheric teleconnection.
This research project, "Atmospheric studies on
Arctic change and its global impacts", addresses
the above three questions - outside influences,

Research Projects（4）

The role of Arctic cryosphere in global change
Water vapor transport

Principal Investigator

Hiroyuki Enomoto National Institute of Polar Research

Rapid changes in snow, glaciers and ice sheet
in the Arctic are occurring as a result of warming.
We are aiming to get a better understanding ofthese changes and their changing processes, andthen the role of snow and ice in the Arctic climate
system to the atmosphere, hydrosphere andterrestrial systems.
Our research focuses on two targets. One isthe effects of land snow and ice cover in the
Pan-Arctic region to the Arctic climate. Aroundabout half of the world's glaciers and ice caps
are located in the Arctic region, and these aresensitive to warming. From data gathered in theﬁeld and from satellites, we can understand a) the
spatial and temporal distribution of snow cover,and b) glacier fluctuations. We will investigate
how snow accumulations respond to changes
in air temperature and snowfall, and the assess
ice-albedo feedback we will try to clarify the▶ The inﬂuence of changes
in the mass of the Greenland
Ice Sheet on global climate Oceanicchangecurrent

Dust
transport

Warming

Ice retreat

Sea ice reduction
Glacier calving
Oceanic
circulation

Snow fall
AlbedoLake
Surface melting

Ice shelf
melting

Sea bottom
topography

Microbiota

Ice ﬂow
accerelation

Melt-water
penetration

Bottom waterpressure
Retreat ofgrounding line

process of changes in snow and ice cover. Froma chemical analysis of snow samples, we willobtain the information of air temperature, snowfall
events, and the spatial distribution of transported
environmental substances. This information is
helping to make climate change predictions moreaccurate.
Our second target of research concerns theeﬀects of the mass change of the Greenland Ice
Sheet on global climate change. The Greenland ice
sheet holds about 10% of the world's ice, whichis equivalent to about seven meters of sea levelrise. This ice sheet is rapidly shrinking, and at anincreasing rate. About half the reduction in the ice
sheet is due to melting, and the other half to thedischarge of ice and our goal is to quantify thisreduction. We will expand observational network

Snow redistribution
Equilibrium line altitude rise

Snow accumulation
changeGlacier quakein Greenland, for understanding of the changes
in the mass of the ice sheet and the processes
responsible for them. We will use a model toincorporates our ﬁndings, to make predictions andclarify the eﬀects of reduction in the ice sheet on
climate change. The reduction in the ice sheet
will lead to rising sea levels and will also inﬂuence
ocean circulation. We will use modelestimation ofchanging sea levels to predict the eﬀects ocean
circulation.
Through this research, we will contribute to
the achievement of strategic research targets① Understanding the mechanism of warming
ampliﬁcation in the Arctic, and ② Understanding
the Arctic system for global climate and futurechange.

9

Research Project（5）

Studies on greenhouse gas cycles in the Arctic andtheir responses to climate change
Principal Investigator

Shuji Aoki Tohoku University

To elucidate temporal and spatial variations of
the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases aswell as their isotopes and oxygen concentrationin the atmosphere in the higher latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere, we make comprehensive
observations by using land stations and aircraft.
Although it is believed that the Arctic Ocean
also plays an important role in the variations ofgreenhouse gases and their related constituents,
the role of the Arctic Ocean is not well known.
Therefore, we are making oceanographic
observations using the research vessel Mirai .

These observational data are analyzed, using
almost all of the high-resolution atmosphericchemistry transport models developed in Japan,
to quantify the distributions and variations ofsources and sinks of the greenhouse gases in the
Arctic region. We are trying to combine the highresolution atmospheric chemistry transport models
with a terrestrial ecosystem model and an oceanic
dissolved carbon transport model. By conducting
simulations to see how these combined models
are able to reproduce observed annual changes
in concentrations and isotopes, we will gain aclearer understanding of the circulation process▶ Ny-Ålesund Station in the
Svalbard Archipelago, where
we are making observationsof greenhouse gasesof the greenhouse gases in the Arctic, and how
the circulation of the greenhouse gases responds
to climate change.
By analyzing ice cores and firn air sampledfrom Greenland and other locations, we canreconstruct the changes in the concentrations
and isotopes of the greenhouse gases from thepast to the present. By analyzing these data,
we can learn about the changes in sources andsinks of the greenhouse gases in the past, as well
as how each type of source has responded toclimate change. This work will contribute to ourunderstanding of the various processes involvedin changes to greenhouses gases in the Arctic.
Through this research, we are contributing to
the achievement of strategic research target ②
Understanding the Arctic system for global climate
and future change.

(Photo: NIPR)

Research Project（6）

Ecosystem studies on the Arctic Ocean declining sea ice
Principal Investigator

Takashi Kikuchi Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

The recent drastic decrease in Arctic sea ice
may cause various changes in the Arctic climate
and ecosystems. For example, improvement of
the light environment due to the sea ice reduction
may induce a favourable condition for the Arctic
marine ecosystem, i.e., it may cause an increase inphytoplankton in the ice-free area. However, there
is observational evidence which indicates that theincrease in sea ice melt-water could inhibit thephytoplankton growth, because the nutrient supply
from lower layer is suppressed by enhanced
stratification due to the melt-water. The benthic
organisms of the Arctic Ocean are also threatenedby changes in marine environments. Currently,▶Schematic view of themarine ecosystem on
the Pacific side of the
Arctic Ocean and theobservational plan of
ECOARCS project (forsummer).

10

they feed on the ice-edge bloom of phytoplankton
that sinks to the seafloor (Pelagic-Benthic type).
However, warming of the Arctic Ocean may
increase the population of zooplanktons andfishes, which will feed on phytoplankton at theice-edge (Pelagic-Pelagic type). What type of
marine ecosystem will the sea ice reduction bringabout? The reduction of sea ice influences not
only species that are inherent to the Arctic but
also those from the Paciﬁc Ocean. These changes
further influence the lives of marine mammals
and polar bears. Many questions are being asked
on the changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem
resulting from the sea ice reduction. For better(Photo: JAMSTEC)

understanding of these changes in Arctic climate
and ecosystems, we will conduct multi-disciplinary
studies examining not only biological but also
physical and chemical aspects of the drasticallychanging Arctic environments.
The research project, "Ecosystem studies on
the Arctic Ocean declining sea ice (ECOARCS)"
was initiated. In this project, we will focus on the
Chukchi Sea on the Pacific side of the Arctic
Ocean, where various environmental changes
have already accompanied the sea ice reduction.
Hydrographic surveys by R/V Mirai (JAMSTEC),TS Oshoro Maru (Hokkaido University), andvarious ice-breakers under international
collaboration will be carried out. Year-roundmooring observations are useful for obtaininghydrographic, chemical and biological data evenin winter time (under the sea ice). To clarify thefeeding behaviour of higher trophic levels, wewill also use the techniques of bio-logging andmonitor large areas of the Arctic Ocean via
satellite throughout the year. Furthermore, weare developing marine ecosystem models for theArctic Ocean that can diagnose in detail the ongoing changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem andmay predict its future.
By combining these products, we will contributeto the achievement of strategic research target③ b Evaluation of the eﬀects of Arctic change on
marine ecosystems and ﬁsheries.

Research Project（7）

Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes
Sub-Research Project

Changes in the Arctic Ocean and mechanisms of catastrophic reductionof Arctic sea ice
Recently, the reduction rate of Arctic sea ice
in summer is greater than the rate of increase inglobal mean surface temperature. This indicatesthat there is a positive feedback mechanismin the Arctic climate system, accelerating the
reduction in the sea ice. Our goal is to get a better

Principal Investigator

Koji Shimada

Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology

understanding of this mechanism. Therefore,
we have set up a systematic ocean observation
system on the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean,
where a disproportionately large degree of
reduction in sea ice has been observed. We plan
to use several icebreakers to measure water

Changes in atmospheric circulation
Ice melt

Increase in outﬂow of sea ice
Atlantic
SectorIce reduction
Less ice formation▶Poisitive feedback
driving on-going
reduction of Arctic
sea ice without
rebound

Activation ofsea ice motion
PaciﬁcsectorOceanic warming

Activation of ocean circulation(Photo: Eri Yoshizawa, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology)

Sub-Research ProjectSea ice prediction and construction of an ice navigation support system
for the Arctic sea routes
We are conducting research in four themes tocreate a forecasting system and decision-making
standards needed for the use of the Arctic sea
routes.
1. Forecasting the distribution of sea ice: We areestablishing methods to make short-term forecasts(up to 10 days in advance) to assist the navigationof vessels in the Arctic Ocean, and medium-term
forecasts (looking several months ahead) to help
determine whether or not the sea lanes will benavigable, and if so, then for how long. The shortterm forecasts use a high-resolution ice/ocean
coupled numerical model that has been developed
and used for the Sea of Okhotsk. The medium-

term forecasts use a statistical model based on
the analysis of satellite data to determine trends inthe sea ice over a longer period.
2. Monitoring the ice conditions around shipping
lanes: We are establishing methods to monitor
the ice, in particular ice thickness, using satellitebased remote sensing. Based on the ice condition
data that is obtained, we will develop navigation
techniques that can be used to select suitable
routes, for use in ice-covered waters.
3. Understanding the effects on vessels
navigating through icy waters: We are assessing
the impact force and safety aspects when ice
blocks strike the hull of a vessel. We are also

◀ Assessment of the ice loadon the ship hull. This model caninvolve around 100,000 virtual
ice pieces and can analyze themutual interaction between thesepieces and a ship hull, as well as
the ice load.
(Source: Prof. Akihisa Konno, Kogakuin University)

Sub-Research Project

Coordinated observational and modeling studies on the basic structure
and variability of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system
By clarifying the mechanism responsible for theformation of and changes to the structure of the
Arctic Ocean, we will build a numerical model thatcan reproduce this mechanism properly. Throughthis model, we will gain an understanding of therole of the sea ice-ocean system in the Arctic
Ocean amid global climate change.
The oceanic structure of the Arctic Ocean isincredibly complex. The development of any
numerical model that is to replicate the state ofthis body of water has to be very closely linked
to actual observations. We are able to gather
information about the thickness of the sea ice
and the pattern of the ice drift, the process offormation and sinking of denser water throughboth remote sensing via satellites and fromsensing systems moored at sea. In a stepwise
fashion we are building high-resolution models,
ranging from those that cover various regions
within the Arctic Ocean up to models that cover
the entire body of water. While working to clarify
the mechanism responsible for the formationof the structure of the Arctic Ocean, we aredeveloping oceanic models that can reproduce theobserved conditions to a high degree. The resultsthat we obtain from these models will play a rolein the formation of a medium- to long-term sea ice
distribution forecasting system that is needed in
the use of Arctic Ocean shipping routes.
Through this research, we are contributing to
the achievement of strategic research target ④
Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea
routes.

temperature and salinity, take water samples,and deploy moored instruments. In addition, weare also utilizing satellite data, to get a better
understanding of the dynamics of heat and salinity
in the atmosphere- ice-ocean systems and theirimpact on sea ice reduction. Based on thesemeasurements, we plan to clarify the dynamics
of a) ocean circulation, b) the amount of heatstored in the ocean, and c) the reservoir of fresh
water in conjunction with changes in sea ice,and thereby contribute to the achievement ofstrategic research target ④ Projection of sea ice
distribution and Arctic sea routes.

Principal Investigator

Hajime Yamaguchi

The University of Tokyo

developing techniques to predict and reduce icing
on ships that can lead to accidents.
4. Assessment of economic viability: We willpropose shipping scenarios that take technology
and economy into consideration.
By gathering together these results, we aredeveloping a "navigation support system" so that
we can decide whether or not shipping routes
through the Arctic Ocean can be used, and also
to use these routes more eﬃciently. This researchis contributing to the achievement of strategic
research target ④ Projection of sea ice distribution
and Arctic sea routes.

Principal Investigator

Hiroyasu Hasumi
The University of Tokyo▲ Display of sea surface current speeds in theregion near the Bering Strait in the Arctic Ocean
simulated by a high-resolution model (the region
within the red rectangle in the world map on theupper right-hand side). The white lines indicate thecontours of the ocean depths.
(Source: Eiji Watanabe, JAMSTEC)

11

Key Supports for Research

Cloud Radar
To accurately understand the role of clouds
that have an enormous influence on climate,researchers need to be informed on the clouds'
3-dimensional structure such as the proportionof water and ice within the clouds, and the sizeand density of cloud droplets. They also need toclearly understand the vertical movement withinclouds relating to winds and the movement ofcloud droplets. The project has developed amobile Doppler 95-GHz millimetre-wavelength
cloud radar, and is expected to install this system
at Ny-Ålesund Observation Station on SpitsbergenIsland in the Svalbard Archipelago by FY2013.
Arctic Data Archive
An Arctic Data Archive has been set up topromote the shared use of observational dataand other resources for mutual benefit. The
archive was established during FY2011 and isdesigned to enable sufficient data storage anduse. The data set in the archive is expected togradually expand over time and be utilized byscientiﬁc communities.
Ny-Ålesund Observation Station
The Ny-Ålesund Observation Station of the
National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) at
Ny-Ålesund on Spitsbergen Island in the Arctic
Ocean is used to take measurements and makeobservations.

The GRENE Arctic Climate Change
Research Project uses the following
resources in its research.
Oceanographic Research Vessel Mirai
The Mirai , which is owned and operated by theJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science andTechnology (JAMSTEC), is one of the largest
oceanographic research vessels in the world. She
is ice resistant, and can carry out observations in
the Arctic Ocean in the summer when the ice hasretreated. In FY2012, the Mirai is scheduled tomake a voyage to the Arctic.

(Photo: JAMSTEC)

Icebreakers
From FY2012 to 2015, the project plans to use
the icebreakers of other countries to conduct
joint observations with foreign Arctic researchorganizations. The project will install three kindsof moored observational systems for ice covered
oceans, and provide support for setting up thesesystems using icebreakers.
(Photo: NIPR)

Organization"Green Network of Excellence"(GRENE) Program is…
In June 2010, the Japanese Cabinet
decided upon a new strategy for
growth: the "Strategy for becoming
an environment and energy power
through green innovation." In responseto this strategy, the Council for
Science and Technology Policy
brought out their report "The Scienceand Technology Basic Plan" in
December 2010 in which they also
positioned "green innovation" to be
one of the main pillars supporting
responses to the issues of energy andclimate change.
Following on, the Ministry of
Education, Culture, Sports, Scienceand Technology (MEXT) initiated theGreen Network of Excellence (GRENE)
in FY2011. Through a strategic
collaboration between universities
and research institutions, GRENE aims
to promote both the highest level ofresearch in the world and the training
and development of human resources.
In addition to its work in the Arctic
Climate Change Research Project,
GRENE is also involved in research in
the areas of environmental informatics,
botanical science, and advanced
environmental materials.

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science & Technology‑‑Japan

Committee on Arctic
Research Strategy

Core InstituteArctic Environment Research Center,
National Institute of Polar Research
Project Manager

Associated InstituteJapan Agency for
Marine-Earth Scienceand Technology

Research Groups

Project Steering Committee

Deputy Project Manager
Infrastructure

Principal Investigators

SecretariateCore Investigators
Co-Investigators

Infrastructure

Universities, Institutes,
Private Companies

Cloud Radar
Arctic Data Archive

R/V Mirai

Japan Consortium for Arctic
Environmental Research (JCAR)
Icebreakers
Researchers

Institutes and Researchers,
abroadInternational Organizations/Programs

Arctic Climate Change Research Project Steering Committee Member

The steering committee consists of specialists in Arctic environment and climate change. It evaluates theactivities of the GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project as well as the progress and results ofindividual research initiatives, and also provides advice.

Tamotsu Igarashi

Hisashi Nakamura

Motoyoshi Ikeda

Masao Fukasawa

Earth Observation Research Center, Space Applications
Mission Directorate, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Manager for Applications Research
Hokkaido University
Professor Emeritus

Koh Izumiyama

North Japan Port Consultants Co.
Ph. D.

Gen Inoue

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
Visiting Professor

Hiroshi Kanzawa

Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University
Professor

Hiroshi Kanda

National Institute of Polar Research
Project Professor

Akio Kitoh

Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute,Japan Meteorological Agency
Director

Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology,
The University of Tokyo
Professor
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency
for Marine Earth Science and Technology
Research Director

Mitsuo Fukuchi

National Institute of Polar Research
Professor

Yasushi Fujiyoshi

Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University
Professor

Tetsuzo Yasunari

Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University
Professor

Takashi Yamanouchi

National Institute of Polar Research
Professor, Vice Director,

National Institute ofPolar Research
Arctic Environment ResearchCenter10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo
190-8518, Japan
Telephone: +81-42-512-0922
http://www.nipr.ac.jp/grene
Issued: June 1, 2012 Editing / Publication

Tomoaki Wada

Tokyo University of Science
Professor(Photo supplied by: Hiroyuki Enomoto, NIPR
NSIDC/NASA)

Shuhei Takahashi

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Kitami Institute of Technology
Professor

Inter-University Research InstituteCorporation
Research Organization of Informationand Systems(As of October 14, 2011)