2010
Blue Planet Prize
Dr. James Hansen (USA)

Sir Bob Watson (UK)

Director at Goddard Institute for Space Studies( NASA )Adjunct professor in the Department of Earthand Environmental Sciences at Columbia
University

Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)
Chair of Environmental Science and Science
Director at Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, the University of East Anglia

PRAY:
This blue planet where we live
Does not belong to us only
All the children to be born on thisplanet,All living beings on the planet,
All have the holy right
To rejoice in the happiness
Of being born on this planet
We as one of those given life on thisplanet,By rendering thoughts to all the life
rejoicing in their lives
In the future of this planet,
Can recreate our linkage
Between all of those lives and us.
If the film helps to allow you
To refresh you to rejoice in the happinessOf passing this blue planet to the future
generations,
By rendering thoughts to the blessingsof the Earth,
The Planet of LifeWe are more than delighted

Selected from the Slide Show Presented at the Openingof the Awards Ceremony
207

Their Imperial Highnesses Prince andPrincess Akishino at the Awards Ceremony
His Imperial Highness Prince Akishino congratulates
the laureates
The prizewinners receive their trophies from Chairman Tanaka

Tetsuji Tanaka, Chairmanof the Foundation delivers
the opening address

Dr. James Hansen

Dr. Hiroyuki
Yoshikawa, Chairmanof the Selection
Committee explains
the rationale for thedetermination of the
year's winners

Mr. James P. Zumwalt, Deputy Chief of Mission of theUnited States of America (left) and Mr. David Warren,
United Kingdom Ambassador to Japan, congratulate thelaureates

Blue Planet Prize Commemorative Lectures208

Sir Bob Watson

Profile

Sir Bob Watson
Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)
Chair of Environmental Science and Science Director at Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, the University of East Anglia
Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1948
Born in UK
1969
Receives a bachelor’s degree in chemistry at Queen Mary College, Universityof London
1973
Receives a doctorate in reaction kinetics at Queen Mary College, University of
London1976-1987 Appointed as a scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
1980-1987 Acts as Deputy Program Scientist at NASA
1980-2006 Co-chairs scientific assessments of the Ozone Layer for World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
1987-1990 Serves as Branch Chief for Upper Atmospheric Research and Stratospheric
Chemistry Program of NASA’s Earth Science and Applications Division
1989
Designated member of UNEP’s “The Global 500: The Roll of Honor for
Environmental Achievement”
1991-1994 Chairs the U.N. Global Environment Facility (GEF) Scientific and TechnicalAdvisory Panel
1991
American Geophysical Union's Edward A. Flinn, III Award established torecognize individuals who personify the American Geophysical Union's mottoof unselfish cooperation in research through their facilitating coordination andimplementing activities (first recipient)
1992
US National Academy of Sciences Award for Scientific Reviewing
1993-1995 Chairs the Global Biodiversity Assessment for United Nations Environment
Program
1993-1996 Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology
Policy of the Executive Office of the President of the United States (under the
Clinton Administration)
1993-1997 Co-chairs the IPCC Working Group II
1993
American Meteorological Society Special Award “for notable efforts in organizing and conducting international assessments in ozone depletion and globalchange”
American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Scientific
Freedom and Responsibility
250

1996
1997

1997-2002
2000-2005
2003-2008
2003

2006
2007

2007
2008

Joins the World Bank as Senior Scientific Adviser in the Environmental
Department
Becomes Head of the Environment Sector Board of the World Bank and later
Chief Scientist and Director for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable
Development
Chairs IPCC
Co-chairs Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Directs the International assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology
for Development
Global Green Award for International Environmental Leadership – US chapterof the Green Cross International formed by Mikhail Gorbachev
Honorary “Companion of the Order of Saint Michael and Saint George” fromthe United Kingdom
Zayed science award for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Appointed Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Becomes Chair of Environmental Science and Science Director at Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research, the University of East Anglia (England)Nobel Peace Prize for the IPCC, chaired from 1997-2001
American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for International
Scientific Cooperation

Sir Watson worked on the study of the creation and depletion of the Ozone Layer at the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Leading numerous scientists, heproduced scientific evidence of human-induced depletion of the Ozone Layer which led to theMontreal Protocol which incorporated the reduction of ozone depleting substances. In thisway, Sir Watson has made a significant contribution to the enactment of the Protocol. Later, as
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), he took the initiative indeveloping the Synthesis Report of the Third Assessment Report. In particular, he played asignificant role in successfully completing the detailed review by national governments fromaround the world of the Synthesis Report, coordinating and bridging science and policy andachieving an international consensus on the need to ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). He also served as the first
Chair of the Science and Technical Advisory Panel to the Global Environmental Facility(GEF), and held other important positions at the World Bank and other organizations. As
Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology Policy under
the Clinton Administration, he testified dozens of times before committees and subcommitteesof the US Senate and House of Representatives on conservation issues. He emphasized theimportance of environmental issues. Devoted to the facilitation of cooperation between scienceand government policy, he has communicated with related government officials and has helped
them make policy decisions. The amount of contribution he has made to policy-making by251

national governments and international frameworks, a necessity and the foundation for theconservation of the global environment, is tremendous.
Depletion of the Ozone Layer and Preventive Actions
Sir Watson received a bachelor’s degree and a doctorate in chemistry at Queen Mary College,
University of London (England) in 1969 and 1973, respectively. Later, he worked as a
postdoctoral fellow at the University of Maryland and the University of California, Berkeley(United States) before establishing a research group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). He was purely academic bynature. As a result of the reputation he gained with his doctoral thesis on halogen chemistryresearch, however, he began to work on a more realistic issue, “depletion of the ozone layer
resultant from the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).” It was already a known fact that
depletion of the ozone layer would increase harmful ultraviolet rays reaching the earth’s
surface, which could increase the occurrences of dermal cancer, conjunctivitis and otherserious diseases. In this way he grew motivated to work on the important issue of the global
environment.
In 1980 he moved to the headquarters of NASA located in Washington, D.C., as amanager of the upper atmosphere research program and had the opportunity to work withleading numerous scientists studying the depletion of the Ozone Layer. He developed skills
and strategies to control and manage the NASA program which was growing more enormousand complex. The most important part of the strategies was the way he adeptly ran theorganization by acknowledging the unique values and abilities of scientists and motivatingthem to a higher goal irrespective of differences in their organization or affiliation. He appealed
to the pride of researchers and successfully encouraged them to deepen their involvement in
the program. This approach to running the organization gained the support of numerous
researchers.
To proceed with a big program aimed at the scientific elucidation of ozone layer
depletion, he developed a relationship of trust with Dr. Dan Albritton, Director of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and helped realize the cooperation offormer rivals: NASA and NOAA. The two organizations cooperated with each other and madesignificant achievements by communicating to policymakers the importance of scientificactions against the crisis and threat posed by a hole in the ozone layer. In cooperation with Dr.
Albritton, he sent a team of scientists to the Antarctic in 1986. Dr. Susan Solomon, then an
NOAA-affiliated scientist, was appointed the chief of the team. Dr. Solomon’s team performed
balloon observations and sample analysis experiments near the ground, and strongly suggested
that the ozone layer depletion could be attributable to an artificial cause, namely chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), rather than a natural weather phenomenon. The validity of the report
was demonstrated the following year, by an analysis of upper air atmosphere performed in thestratosphere using a high-altitude plane (ER2). Their suggestion became a scientifically
undeniable fact. With the latest scientific data, he joined Dr. Albritton in attending meetings
for the ratification of the Montreal Protocol, which was negotiated in 1987. They explained togovernment officials from participating nations the fact that the cause of the Ozone Layer

252

depletion was chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and endorsed ratification of the Montreal Protocol
which incorporated a 50% reduction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) by 2000. Then-President
Reagan signed the Montreal Protocol and said it would boost the development of newtechnologies. He tackled ozone layer depletion, the biggest environmental issue at that time,and influenced the whole world toward the pursuit of solutions.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
From 1997 to 2002, Sir Watson chaired the IPCC and led the review of scientific, technicaland socio-economic studies on global warming. In 2001, the IPCC published its Third
Assessment Report. The Bush Administration ordered the US National Research Council(NRC) to review the report. The NRC said the IPCC Third Assessment Report (especially
Working Group I1 and technical summary) deserved a lot of praise as a study on climate
science2. This statement enhanced confidence in the IPCC report.
The Third Assessment Report is important in that it included a Synthesis Report, which
said there was strong evidence that the progression of global warming was undeniable and wasdue to human activities; that the human-induced climate change was expected to persist for
centuries; and that the prevention of global warming would require comprehensive actions:continued technical development and overcoming of socio-economic difficulties. The
introduction to the Synthesis Report defines the essence of the report as “integration andsummarization of information that is policy-relevant and is not policy-prescriptive.” Thedefinition means that the Synthesis Report aims to cover all policy-relevant matters and tocontinually inform them by using expressions that contribute to policy-making, and that theSynthesis Report represents advice from the scientists’ view and is not meant to tellpolicymakers what to do. This strongly conveys the attitude of Sir Watson toward realisticallysolving climate issues without deviating from his position as a scientist or limiting the role of
the Synthesis Report to mere scientific remarks.
The basic details of the report were decided by scientists. The line by line wording of
the report required consent by government officials from around the world. The coordination
activities needed between scientists and government officials was all about putting scientificremarks into the most appropriate language for policymakers. Discussions for coordination
were focused on a relationship between “accuracy, balance and clarity of message” in wordingand “policies and interpretations.” The approval of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Third
Assessment Report, led by Sir Watson, involved many people consisting of delegations from100 countries, 10 non-governmental organizations and 42 scientists. Assuming leadership of
this large organization, he summarized important points and submitted them to the IPCC
plenary. By facilitating close exchange between science and policy, he contributed to making
important policies, set an exemplary precedent for collaboration and coordination between
scientists and policymakers and is now referred to as the master of uniting government officials
and scientists.
Most remarkably, he drastically changed the whole world’s view on climate change
through the IPCC report which led to important changes of policy designed for the reductionof greenhouse gases at regional, national and international levels.

253

Facilitation of Environmental Policies
Sir Watson chaired the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the U.N. Global Environment
Facility (GEF) and the international Global Biodiversity Assessment and Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and has held
important positions at many other international organizations. His administrative andmanagerial abilities were thoroughly exhibited in his commitments to the conservation of the
global environment. From 1996 to 2007, he acted as Chief Scientist and Director for
Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank. He was devoted torevitalizing scientific programs at the World Bank. In line with the aim of the World Bank,
namely relief from poverty and development of a sustainable society, he facilitated international
exchanges of scientists and endeavored to help developing nations improve their scientificabilities. As Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology
Policy under the Clinton Administration, he testified dozens of times before committees andsubcommittees of the US Senate and House of Representatives on conservation issues. He
explained the causal relationship among human economic activities, depletion of the ozone
layer and global warming as well as the impact and damage that could result as a consequence,
explaining to the whole world the graveness of environmental issues. Mr. Al Gore, former US
Vice President, described Sir Watson as a “Hero of the Planet” in a letter written to a senior
US government official.
The Sir Watson has devoted himself to the facilitation of cooperation between scienceand government policy, disseminated important information and views on science and helped
government officials make policy decisions by keeping in contact with them. The size of thecontribution he has made to policymaking by national governments and internationalframeworks, a necessity and the foundation for conservation of the global environment, istremendous.
Notes
1. IPCC Working Group I (designed for scientific, technical and social-scientific assessment of climate change)
2. Committee on the Science of Climate Change, NRC (2001)

254

EssayCurrent and Projected State of the Global and Regional Environment:
Implications for Environmental, Economic and Social Sustainability
Sir Bob Watson
Most countries are attempting to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable economic
growth, coupled with food, water, energy and human security at a time of enormous globalchanges, including environmental degradation at the local, regional and global scale. Key
issues include climate change, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services (provisioning,
regulating, cultural and supporting), local and regional air pollution, and land and water
degradation.
There is no doubt that the Earth's environment is changing on all scales from local to
global, in large measure due to human activities,. The stratospheric ozone layer has been
depleted, the climate is warming at a rate faster than at any time during the last 10,000 years,
biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, fisheries are in decline in most of theworld’s oceans, air pollution is an increasing problem in and around many of the major cities
in the world, large numbers of people live in water stressed or water scarce areas, and large
areas of land are being degraded. Much of this environmental degradation is due to theunsustainable production and use of energy, water, food and other biological resources and isalready undermining efforts to alleviate poverty and stimulate sustainable development, andworse, the future projected changes in the environment are likely to have even more severe
consequences.
Understanding the interconnections among these environmental issues is essential inorder to develop and implement informed cost-effective and socially acceptable policies,
practices and technologies at the local, regional and global scale. Given these environmental
issues are closely inter-linked we must ensure that policies and technologies to address one
environmental issue, positively, and not negatively, impact on other aspects of the environmentor human well-being, i.e., it is important to identify climate change response measures that arealso beneficial to biodiversity and do not adversely affect biodiversity. Cost-effective andequitable approaches to address these issues exist or can be developed, but will require political
will and moral leadership. While the substantial measures needed to prevent environmental
degradation from undermining growth and poverty alleviation are not yet in place, acombination of technological and behavioral changes, coupled with pricing and effective
policies (including regulatory policies), are needed to address these global challenges at all
spatial scales, and across all sectors.
The major indirect drivers of change are primarily demographic, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural and religious. These drivers are clearly changing: theworld’s population and the global economy are growing, the world is becoming more255

interdependent, and there are major changes in information technology and biotechnology.
The world’s population will likely increase from about 6.5 billion people today to 9 to10
billion people by 2050. This increase in population will be accompanied by an increase in
GDP globally of a factor of 3-4, with developing countries increasingly driving global
economic growth. By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy
will stem from developing countries. Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained
over the next 25 years could significantly reduce global poverty. At the same time, it must berecognized that the benefits from growth and globalization could be undermined by a failure
to properly manage global environmental issues, especially mitigating and adapting to climatechange, and reducing the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services.
Climate Change
There is no doubt that the composition of the atmosphere and the Earth’s climate have changed
since the industrial revolution predominantly due to human activities, and it is inevitable thatthese changes will continue regionally and globally. The atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide has increased by over 30% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to the combustionof fossil fuels and deforestation. Global mean surface temperatures have already increased byabout 0.75°C, an additional 0.5°C to 1.0°C is inevitable due to past emissions, and are projected
to increase by an additional 1.2-6.4°C between 2000 and 2100, with land areas warming morethan the oceans and high latitudes warming more than the tropics. Precipitation is moredifficult to predict, but is likely to increase at high latitudes and in the tropics, and decreasesignificantly in the sub-tropics, with an increase in heavy precipitation events and a decreasein light precipitation events, leading to more floods and droughts.
Changes in temperature and precipitation are causing, and will continue to cause, otherenvironmental changes, including, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of
the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of
extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of
cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The Earth’s climate, which is projected to change at a faster rate than during the lastcentury, is projected to adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal
systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems. The impacts of climate change
are likely to be extensive, primarily negative, and cut across many sectors. Temperature
increases, which will increase the thermal growing season at temperate latitudes, including in
the US and Europe, are likely lead to increased agricultural productivity for temperaturechanges below 2-3°C, but decrease with larger changes. However, agricultural productivity
will likely be negatively impacted for almost any changes in climate throughout the tropics
and sub-tropics, areas with high levels of hunger and malnutrition. Water quality andavailability in many arid- and semi-arid regions will likely decrease, while the risk of floods
and droughts in many regions of the world will increase. Vector- and water-borne diseases,
heat stress mortality and extreme weather-event deaths, and threats to nutrition in developing
countries, will likely increase. Millions of people could be trapped in areas of abject poverty
or displaced due to sea-level rise and flooding. These climate change impacts are most likely

256to adversely affect populations in developing countries. Climate change, coupled with otherstresses, can lead to local and regional conflict and migration depending on the social,economic, and political circumstances.
The goal, agreed at the Ministerial session of the UNFCCC in Copenhagen in 2009,and endorsed in Cancun and Durban, to limit global temperature changes to 2°C above preindustrial levels is appropriate if the most severe consequences of human-induced climatechange are to be avoided, but it must be recognized to be a stretch target and, unless political
will changes drastically in the near future, it will not be met. Therefore, we should be preparedto adapt to global temperature changes of 4-5°C. In addition, we must recognize that wecannot address mitigation and adaptation separately.
Mitigating climate change will require getting the price right, an evolution of lowcarbon technologies (production and use of energy), and behavior change by individuals,
communities, private sector and the public sectors (see paper by Goldemberg and Lovins). In
addition to transitioning to a low carbon energy system, it is critical to reduce emissions fromforests by reducing forest degradation and deforestation; and sequestering carbon throughreforestation; afforestation; and agroforestry, and from agricultural systems through conservation tillage, reducing emissions from the use of fertilizers, and from livestock and riceproduction.
In addition, to mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases, it will be essential to adapt
to climate change. However, mitigation is essential because there are physical, technological,
behavioural and financial limits to the amount of adaptation that we can achieve: there arephysical limits to adaptation on small, low-lying islands, technological limits to flood defences,behavioural limits to where people live and why, and financial limits for adaptation activities.
The more we mitigate, the less we will have to adapt. Nevertheless, we know that adaptation isessential and must be mainstreamed, particularly into sectoral and national economic planningin developing countries due to their heightened vulnerability to climate change impacts.
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services
Throughout the world, biodiversity at the genetic, species and landscape level is being lost,and ecosystems and their services are being degraded, because of conversion of natural
habitats, over-exploitation, pollution, introduction of exotic species and climate change, which
are in many instances causing tremendous harm to both people and the environment. In
particular, the emphasis placed on provisioning services to meet the increased need for food(crops and livestock), and to a lesser extent fibre, water and energy, for an increasing population
has resulted in a decline in biodiversity and degradation of many ecosystems. The Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment reported that 15 of the 24 services evaluated were in decline, 4 were
improving and 5 were improving in some regions of the world and declining in other regions.
The UK National Ecosystem Assessment reported that between 30-35% of the ecosystemservices evaluated were in decline, 20% were improving and 45-50% were relatively stable.
While climate change has not been a major cause of biodiversity loss over the last 100 years it
is likely to be a major threat in all biomes during the next 100 years. Climate change will
likely exacerbate biodiversity loss and adversely affect most ecological systems, especially257

coral reefs, mountainous and polar ecosystems, potentially resulting in significant adversechanges in ecosystem goods and services. A recent assessment estimated that every 1°C
increase in global mean surface temperature up to 5°C would eventually result in a 10% lossof species.
Biodiversity is central to human well-being, providing a variety of ecosystem services
that humankind relies on, including: provisioning (e.g. food, freshwater, wood and fiber, andfuel); regulating (e.g. of climate, flood, diseases); culture (e.g. aesthetic, spiritual, educational,
and recreational), and supporting (e.g. nutrient cycling, soil formation, and primary
production). These ecosystem services, which contribute to human well-being, including our
security, health, social relations, and freedom of choice and action, are being diminished.
The benefits that we derive from the natural world and its constituent ecosystems are
critically important to human well-being and economic prosperity, but are consistently
undervalued in economic analysis and decision-making. Effective conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems are critical for human well-being and a future thriving and sustainablegreen economy. Failure to include the valuation of non-market values in decision-making
results in a less efficient resource allocation; however, a major challenge is to develop systems
to appropriate the values of non-market ecosystem services to land managers.
Therefore, addressing the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem services requires
changing the economic background to decision-making. There is a need to: (i) make sure thatthe value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into
account when making decisions; (ii) remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy thatcause harm to people and the environment; (iii) introduce payments to landowners in returnfor managing their lands in ways that protect ecosystem services, such as water quality andcarbon storage, that are of value to society; and (iv) establish market mechanisms to reduce
nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way.
There is also a need to improve policy, planning, and management by integrating
decision-making between different departments and sectors, as well as international institutions, to ensure that policies are focused on protection and sustainable use of ecosystems.
It will require: (i) empowering marginalized groups to influence decisions affecting
ecosystem services, and recognize in law local communities’ ownership of natural resources;(ii) restoring degraded ecosystems and establishing additional protected areas, particularly
in marine systems and providing greater financial and management support to those that
already exist; and (iii) using all relevant forms of knowledge and information about
ecosystems in decision-making, including the knowledge of local and indigenous groups.
Success will also require influencing individual and community behavior. Thus it willbe critical to provide access to information about ecosystems and decisions affecting theirservices, provide public education on why and how to reduce consumption of threatened
ecosystem services, and by establishing reliable certification systems to give people the choice
to buy sustainably harvested products. It will also be important to develop and use environmentfriendly technologies, thus requiring investments in agricultural science and technology aimed
at increasing food production with minimal harmful trade-offs.

258

Lecture

Ozone Depletion, Climate Change and Loss of Biodiversity:
Implications for Food, Water and Human Security
Sir Bob Watson
Slide 1* - There is no doubt that the Earth’s environment is changing on all scales from local
to global, in large measure due to human activities. The stratospheric ozone layer has been
depleted, the climate is warming at a rate faster than at any time during the last 10,000 years,
biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, fisheries are in decline in most of theworld’s oceans, air pollution is an increasing problem in and around many of the major cities
in the world, large numbers of people live in water stressed or water scarce areas, and large
areas of land are being degraded. Much of this environmental degradation is due to theunsustainable production and use of energy, water, food and other biological resources and isalready undermining efforts to alleviate poverty and stimulate sustainable development, andworse, the future projected changes in the environment are likely to have even more severe
consequences.
The issues of stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity anddegradation of ecosystem services, local and regional air pollution, and land and water
degradation are inter-connected and are undermining:• Economic growth, poverty alleviation, and the livelihoods of the poor;• Human health; and• Personal, national, and regional security.
Understanding the interconnections among these environmental issues is essential inorder to develop and implement informed cost-effective and socially acceptable policies,
practices and technologies at the local, regional and global scale. Given these environmental
issues are closely inter-linked we must ensure that policies and technologies to address one
environmental issue, positively, and not negatively, impact on other aspects of the environmentor human well-being, i.e., it is important to identify climate change response measures that arealso beneficial to biodiversity and do not adversely affect biodiversity. Cost-effective andequitable approaches to address these issues exist or can be developed, but will require political
will and moral leadership. While the substantial measures needed to prevent environmental
degradation from undermining growth and poverty alleviation are not yet in place, a combination of technological and behavioral changes, coupled with pricing and effective policies(including regulatory policies), are needed to address these global challenges at all spatial
scales, and across all sectors.
The major indirect drivers of change are primarily demographic, economic, socio-

259* There are supplement slides at the back of the section.

political, technological, and cultural and religious. These drivers are clearly changing: theworld’s population and the global economy are growing, the world is becoming moreinterdependent, and there are major changes in information technology and biotechnology.
The world’s population will likely increase from about 6.5 billion people today to 9-10 billion
people by 2050. This increase in population will be accompanied by an increase in GDP
globally of a factor of 3-4, with developing countries increasingly driving global economic
growth. By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy will stemfrom developing countries. Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained over the
next 25 years could significantly reduce global poverty. At the same time, it must be recognizedthat the benefits from growth and globalization could be undermined by a failure to properly
manage global environmental issues, especially mitigating and adapting to climate change,
and reducing the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services.
Slide 2 - Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
The layer of ozone in the stratosphere protects the Earth from damaging ultraviolet radiation,
which can cause melanoma and non melanoma skin cancer in humans and adversely affectecological systems. Scientific research in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s demonstrated thatanthropogenic emissions of chlorine, e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, and bromine containing
chemicals that reached the stratosphere are photo-dissociated. The resulting halogen atoms
and halogen free radicals catalytically destroy ozone at all latitudes, except the tropics, withthe greatest depletions being at high latitudes in winter. Of particular importance was thediscovery of the spring-time Antarctic ozone hole and the subsequent ground, balloon andaircraft campaigns that showed that human activities were responsible and not natural
phenomena. A series of international ozone assessments provided the scientific, technical andeconomic information needed to inform national and international policy formulation. In
1985 an International Convention to protect the ozone layer was successfully negotiated,followed by the historic Montreal Protocol in 1987, which mandated emission reductions inozone-depleting chemicals from industrialized countries. The Montreal Protocol was quickly
followed by a series of adjustments and amendments, which resulted in the elimination ofemissions of nearly all short- and long-lived halogenated chemicals from both developed anddeveloping countries, thus protecting the ozone layer from significant loss. Observational
evidence shows that the Montreal Protocol is working with the atmospheric concentrations of
the ozone-depleting chemicals peaking and now decreasing. The Montreal Protocol should
result in the ozone layer recovering by the middle of the century.
This is clearly a success story, where national and internationally coordinated research
led to an understanding of the processes controlling the abundance of stratospheric ozone.
The international assessments provided decision-makers in government with a single sourceof information upon which to base national and international policies and the private sector
information upon which to develop environmentally-friendly alternatives.
Slide 3 - Climate Change
There is no doubt that the composition of the atmosphere and the Earth’s climate have changed260since the industrial revolution predominantly due to human activities, and it is inevitable thatthese changes will continue regionally and globally. Global mean surface temperatures havealready increased by about 0.75°C, and are projected to increase by an additional 1.2-6.4°C
between 2000 and 2100, with land areas in the high northern latitudes increasing by 4-5°C by
2090 even under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and by 10°C on average under highgreenhouse gas emission scenarios. Precipitation is more difficult to predict, however is likely
to increase at high latitudes and in the tropics, and decrease significantly in the sub-tropics.
Changes in temperature and precipitation are causing, and will continue to cause, otherenvironmental changes, including, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of
the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of
extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of
cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The Earth’s climate, which is projected to change at a faster rate than during the lastcentury, is projected to adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal
systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems. The impacts of climate change
are likely to be extensive, primarily negative, and cut across many sectors. Temperature
increases, which will increase the thermal growing season at temperate latitudes, including in
the US and Europe, are likely lead to increased agricultural productivity for temperaturechanges below 2-3°C, but decrease with larger changes. However, agricultural productivity
will likely be negatively impacted for almost any changes in climate throughout the tropics
and sub-tropics, areas with high levels of hunger and malnutrition. Climate change will likely
exacerbate biodiversity loss and adversely affect most ecological systems, especially coral
reefs, potentially resulting in significant adverse changes in ecosystem goods and services. A
recent assessment estimated that every 1°C increase in global mean surface temperature up to
5°C would eventually result in a 10% loss of species. Water availability and quality in many
arid and semi-arid regions will likely decrease, while the risk of floods and droughts in many
regions will increase. Vector- and water-borne diseases, heat stress mortality and extreme
weather-event deaths, and threats to nutrition in developing countries, will likely increase.
Tens of millions of people could be displaced due to sea-level rise. These climate change
impacts are most likely to adversely affect populations in developing countries. Climatechange, coupled with other stresses, can lead to local and regional conflict and migration
depending on the social, economic, and political circumstances.
Poverty alleviation requires climate change-resilient development, which must consistof strategies to cost-effectively mitigate human-induced climate change and adapt to theprojected impacts. While developed countries remain the largest per-capita emitters ofgreenhouse gases today, the growth of carbon emissions in the next decades will comeprimarily from developing countries, especially China and India, which are following thesame energy and carbon intensive development path as did their rich counterparts.
Consequently, to mitigate climate change we must minimize the emissions of greenhousegases and transition to a low-carbon economy while recognizing that access to affordable
energy in developing countries is a pre-requisite for poverty alleviation and economic growth.
To adapt, we must integrate current climate variability and projected climatic changes into261

sector and national economic planning while taking into consideration the aspirations of local
communities.
Climate change-resilient development must be equitable. Climate change, likebiodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue.
Whereas the historical greenhouse gas emissions have come from developed countries,
developing countries and poor people in developing countries are most vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change. Furthermore, the actions of today will affect future generations.
Mitigation and adaptation strategies must take these equity issues into account.
Slide 4 - Mitigating Climate Change
The goal, agreed at the Ministerial session of the UNFCCC in Copenhagen in 2009, to limit
global temperature changes to 2°C above pre-industrial levels is appropriate if the most severe
consequences of human-induced climate change are to be avoided, but it must be recognized
to be a stretch target and, unless political will changes drastically in the near future, it will not
be met. Therefore, we should be prepared to adapt to global temperature changes of 4-5°C. In
addition, we must recognize that we cannot address mitigation and adaptation separately.
The current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, accounting for the offsetting
effect of aerosols, is approximately 385ppm CO2eq*. If we succeed at stabilizing between 400
and 450ppm CO2eq, there is a 50% chance that global temperature changes will be limited to
2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 5% probability of 2.8°C. However, the likelihood ofstabilizing at this level is low. If we stabilize at 550ppm CO2eq, there is a 50% chance that
global temperature changes will be limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 5%chance of a 4.8°C, and if we allow the atmosphere to reach 650ppm CO2eq then there is a 50%
chance that global temperature changes will be limited to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, with
a 5% chance of a 6.0°C.
To stabilize at 500ppm CO2eq or lower, OECD countries would need to reduce theircarbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050. Developing countries would also need to decrease
their projected carbon emissions significantly over the same time period. Clearly a range oftools (policies, technologies and practices) are needed to stabilize greenhouse gases in theatmosphere at 500ppm CO2eq or less.
It is often assumed that an appropriate combination of technology and policy options
could provide the basis to meet our stabilization goals and mitigate climate change. However,mitigation will require a combination of pricing and technological mechanisms, as well as
good policies and behavioural change, i.e., pricing carbon emissions and understanding
behavioural changes is critical.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report shows that putting a price on carbon can lead tosignificant emission reductions. Pricing mechanisms include emissions trading, taxation, andregulations across national, regional, and global scales and across all sectors.

Note * ppm CO2eq: parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent262

Technology use and transformation is needed to reduce emissions. Better use ofavailable low-carbon technologies coupled with improved development, commercialization and market penetration of emerging technologies is required. Examples include:• Efficient production and use of energy: power generation (e.g. re-powering inefficient
coal plants and developing integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)); efficienttransport (e.g., developing electric and fuel cell cars; developing mass transit; andimproving urban planning), buildings, and industries;• Fuel shift: coal to gas;
• Renewable energy and fuels: wind, wave and tidal power; solar PV and solar thermal;
small- and large-scale hydropower; and bio-energy;• Carbon capture and storage (CCS): capture and geological storage of CO2 produced
during electricity generation (e.g., IGCC – CCS); and• Nuclear fission: nuclear power
In addition to transitioning to a low carbon energy system, it is critical to reduce
emissions from forests by reducing forest degradation and deforestation; and sequestering
carbon through reforestation; afforestation; and agroforestry, and from agricultural systems
through conservation tillage, reducing emissions from the use of fertilizers, and from livestockand rice production.
Key mitigation technologies projected to be commercialized before 2030 include,
carbon capture and storage, advanced nuclear power, and renewable energy (e.g., tidal andwave energy), second generation biofuels, advanced electric and hybrid vehicles, and integrated
design of commercial buildings. However, governments and the private sector must invest
more in energy RD&D to deliver these low greenhouse gas technologies. At least US$20
trillion is required globally for energy infrastructure investments between now and 2030.
Investment decisions will determine emissions from the energy sector. Returning global
energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a major shift in investment
patterns, but initial estimates suggest that the net additional investments range from negligible
to 5-10%
A suitable policy framework is needed to facilitate the emergence of appropriate pricing
and technological mechanisms, as voluntary agreements alone will not work. Policies thatprovide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers
to significantly invest in low-greenhouse gas products, technologies and processes, including
economic instruments, regulations (e.g., standards) and government funding and tax credits.
The costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are reduced through international trading andadopting a multi gas / multi sector strategy, hence reducing the financing needed to transition
to a low-carbon economy.
A long-term (e.g. 2030–2050), legally binding global regulatory framework is neededthat involves all major emitters, including the US, EU, Russia, China, Brazil, and India. The
agreement should allocate responsibilities in an equitable manner and should include
immediate and intermediate targets. This would stimulate a viable carbon market with a flow263

of funds to developing countries of tens of billions of dollars per year. The framework should
expand the range of eligible Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activities to include
reduced deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), green investment schemes, and energy
efficiency standards. Sectoral and programmatic approaches should be considered.
In order to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions
would have to peak and decline thereafter – the lower the stabilization level the more quickly
this peak and decline would need to occur. Delaying action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
will be costly by locking in high carbon pathways, thus making it more difficult and expensive
to reduce emissions in the future, as well as creating higher risks of severe climate change
impacts.
Adaptation
In addition, to mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases, it will be essential to adapt toclimate change. However, mitigation is essential because there are physical, technological,
behavioural and financial limits to the amount of adaptation that we can achieve: there arephysical limits to adaptation on small, low-lying islands, technological limits to flood defences,behavioural limits to where people live and why, and financial limits to integrate adaptation toclimate change. The more we mitigate, the less we will have to adapt. Nevertheless, we knowthat adaptation is essential and must be mainstreamed, particularly into sectoral and national
economic planning in developing countries due to their heightened vulnerability to climatechange impacts.
The estimated annual costs of inaction related to climate change cover a huge range, but
are expected to fall between tens and hundreds of billions of dollars in developing countries
by 2050. Furthermore, a preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions of dollars per yearof Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) and concessional finance investments are
exposed to climate risks. Comprehensive project planning and additional investments toclimate-proof development projects will require additional funding.
While current financial instruments are technically adequate to respond to the challengeof achieving climate resilient development, the amounts of money flowing through these
instruments need to be substantially increased. Issues requiring immediate work include ananalysis of institutional barriers to mainstreaming adaptation into development planning andthe need for new standards for infrastructure and procedures for planning. New insurance
related instruments are likely to play a major role in this, including weather index insurance
for activities by farmers, and risk pooling arrangements such as the Global Index Insurance
Facility.
Failure to adapt adequately to current climate variability is already a major impediment
to poverty reduction. Most sectors are maladapted to current climate variability. Failure toeffectively mainstream adaptation to increasingly severe weather patterns and climate
variability into development activities is a major threat to poverty alleviation. This requires a
climate risk management approach that takes account of the threats and opportunities arisingfrom both current and future climate variability in project design. This process must be
country-driven and focus on national needs and local priorities. Delivery of adaptive responses

264depends on effective governance mechanisms.
Slide 5 - Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services
Biodiversity is central to human wellbeing, providing a variety of ecosystem services thathumankind relies on, including: provisioning (e.g. food, freshwater, wood and fiber, and fuel);
regulating (e.g. of climate, flood, diseases); culture (e.g. aesthetic, spiritual, educational, andrecreational), and supporting (e.g. nutrient cycling, soil formation, and primary produ-ction).
These ecosystem services contribute to human wellbeing, including our security, health, social
relations, and freedom of choice and action.
Enhancement of the goods and services provided by ecosystems tend to have multiple
and synergistic benefits, but little of this potential is being used today. Indeed, throughout theworld, the capability of many ecosystems to provide a range of services is being diminished,because of conversion of natural habitats, over-exploitation, pollution, introduction of exotic
species and climate change, which are in some instances causing tremendous harm to bothpeople and the environment. While climate change has not been a major cause of biodiversity
loss over the last 100 years it is likely to be a major threat in all biomes in the next 100 years.
Addressing the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem services requires changing the
economic background to decision-making. There is a need to: (i) make sure that the value ofall ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into accountwhen making decisions; (ii) remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy that cause
harm to people and the environment; (iii) introduce payments to landowners in return for
managing their lands in ways that protect ecosystem services, such as water quality and carbon
storage, that are of value to society; and (iv) establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient
releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way.
There is also a need to improve policy, planning, and management by integrating
decision-making between different departments and sectors, as well as international institutions, to ensure that policies are focused on protection and sustainable use of ecosystems. It
will require: (i) empowering marginalized groups to influence decisions affecting ecosystemservices, and recognize in law local communities’ ownership of natural resources; (ii) restoring
degraded ecosystems and establishing additional protected areas, particularly in marine
systems and providing greater financial and management support to those that already exist;
and (iii) using all relevant forms of knowledge and information about ecosystems in decisionmaking, including the knowledge of local and indigenous groups.
Success will depend on influencing individual behavior, thus it will be critical to provide
access to information about ecosystems and decisions affecting their services, provide public
education on why and how to reduce consumption of threatened ecosystem services, and by
establishing reliable certification systems to give people the choice to buy sustainably harvested
products. It will also be important to develop and use environment-friendly technologies, thus
requiring investments in agricultural science and technology aimed at increasing foodproduction with minimal harmful trade-offs.

265

Slide 6 - Food Security and Agricultural Production
Total food production has nearly trebled since 1960, per capita production has increased by
30%, and food prices and the percent of undernourished people have fallen, but the benefits
have been uneven and more than one billion people still go to bed hungry each night. Furthermore, intensive and extensive food production has caused environmental degradation.
Food prices increased during the last two-three years for a variety of reasons that are
unlikely to disappear in the coming decades, including:• Poor harvests due to variable weather – possibly related to human-induced climatechange;• Increased biofuels use, e.g., maize in the USA;
• Increased demand, in rapidly growing economies;• High energy prices, increasing the cost of mechanization and fertilizers;• Speculation on the commodity markets at a time of low stocks; and• Export bans from some large exporting countries to protect domestic supplies.
The demand for food will likely double in the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing
countries. Furthermore, the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change, e.g.,increased demand for meat. We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector to feed theworld, enhance rural livelihoods, and stimulate economic growth. Yet these new demands are
arising at a time when – in addition to the challenges highlighted above – the world has lesslabour due to disease and rural-urban migration, less water due to competition from othersectors, distorted trade policies due to OECD subsidies, land policy conflicts, loss of genetic,
species, and ecosystem biodiversity, and increasing levels of air and water pollution.
Agriculture affects the environment; for example, tillage and irrigation methods canlead to salinisation and soil erosion, and fertilisers and other forms of agricultural production(e.g. rice production and livestock) contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, and extensification
into grasslands and forests leads to loss of biodiversity at the genetic, species and landscapelevel. Environmental degradation in turns reduces agricultural productivity.
We can no longer think of agriculture in terms of production alone. We must acknowledge the multi-functionality of agriculture, and place agriculture within a broad economic,
social, and environmental framework.
We can feed the world with affordable food while providing a viable income for the
farmer, but business-as-usual will not work. Most of today’s hunger problems can be addressed with the appropriate use of current technologies, particularly appropriate agro-ecologicalpractices (e.g. no/low till, integrated pest management, and integrated natural resource
management). These must be coupled with decreased post-harvest losses.
Emerging issues such as climate change and new plant and animal pests may increase
our future need for higher productivity and may require advanced biotechnologies, including
genetic modification, to address future food demands. However, the risks and benefits of thesetools must be fully understood on a case-by-case basis. The public and private sectors should
increase their investments in research and development, extension services, and weather and266

market information.
Farmers must be central to all initiatives taken; local and traditional knowledge must be
integrated with agricultural knowledge, science, and technology developed in universities andgovernment laboratories. Innovation that involves all relevant stakeholders along the complete
food chain is essential. As such, we must recognize the critical role of women and empower
them (e.g. through education, property rights, and access to financing).
We will also need to employ global-scale policy reforms. This will include eliminating
both OECD production subsidies and tariff escalation on processed products, and recognizing
the special needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access.
Governments should pay farmers to maintain and enhance ecosystem services.
Slide 7 - Water Security
Projections show that by 2025 over half of the world’s population will live in places that are
subject to severe water stress. This is irrespective of climate change, which will exacerbate thesituation. Water quality is declining in many parts of the world, and 50-60% of wetlands havebeen lost. Human-induced climate change is projected to decrease water quality and availability
in many arid and semi-arid regions and increase the threats posed by floods and droughts inmost parts of the world. This will have far-reaching implications, including for agriculture:
70% of all freshwater is currently used for irrigation. 15-35% of irrigation water use alreadyexceeds supply and is thus unsustainable.
Freshwater availability is spatially variable and scarce, particularly in many regions ofAfrica and Asia. Numerous dry regions, including many of the world’s major “food bowls,”
will likely become much drier even under medium levels of climate change. Glacier melt,
which provides water for many developing countries, will likely exacerbate this problem overthe long term. Runoff will decrease in many places due to increased evapotranspiration. In
contrast, more precipitation is likely to fall in many of the world’s wetter regions. Developed
regions and countries will also be affected. For example, winters will likely become hotter andwetter in the UK, and summers hotter and drier; southeast England may receive 50% lessrainfall during the summer by the 2080s.
Cost recovery for water – at only 20% – poses a major problem for water management.
Crucially, and controversially, we must get water pricing right. The Dublin Principles shouldbe implemented to help address the challenges associated with water scarcity. These include
the:• Ecological Principle: river basin management (often transnational); multi-sectoral
management (e.g. agriculture, industry, and households); and coupled land-and-water
management• Institutional Principle: Comprehensive stakeholder involvement (e.g. state, private
sector, and civil society – especially women) in management action at the lowest level• Instrument Principle: Improved allocation and quality enhancement via incentives
and economic principles

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Science-policy Interface
Strengthening the science-policy interface for many environmental issues is also critical.
National and international, coordinated, and interdisciplinary research is the critical underpinningof informed policy formulation and implementation. There is an urgent need for strengthening
the scientific and technological infrastructure in most developing countries. Independent, global
expert assessments that encompass risk assessment and risk management have proven to be a
critical component of the science-policy interface. These include the International Stratospheric
Ozone Assessments, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment, and the International Agricultural Assessment of Science andTechnology for Development. Such assessments must be policy-relevant rather than policyprescriptive. Furthermore, we need a more integrated assessment process that encompasses allenvironmental issues within the construct of economic growth and poverty alleviation.
Slide 8 - Conclusion
In summary, we are changing the Earth’s climate, losing biodiversity and spending Earth’s
natural capital, putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of theplanet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. However,the future is not pre-ordained. Business as usual will lead to an unsustainable world withsignificant changes in the Earth’s climate and a loss of critical ecosystem services. Costeffective technologies, supported by an appropriate policy framework, can lead to moresustainable practices. Effective action needs stable and credible environmental policies that
support the long-term shift to a low-carbon economy and the sustainable use of natural
resources. We need not just a small improvement in resource efficiency, but a radical shift.
Public and private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term perspective. We must
make advances in science and technology, with the emphasis on interdisciplinary research. We
must get the economics right; this includes eliminating perverse subsidies by valuing ecosystemservices and internalizing externalities.
Progress requires political will and moral leadership in the public and private sectors.
The actions of today’s generation will profoundly affect the Earth inherited by our children
and future generations. Policymakers should recognize that there is no dichotomy between
economic growth and environmental protection, and that addressing issues such as climatechange provides economic opportunities to restructure and make a more efficient energy
system, and can provide additional benefits such as reducing local and regional air pollution,with positive implications for human health. The benefits of limiting climate change andsustainably managing ecosystems far exceed the costs of inaction, and delaying action cansignificantly increase costs. Efficient resource use saves money for businesses and households,
and a green economy will be a source of future employment and innovation. Similarly theconservation and sustainable use of biodiversity can have significant economic and social
benefits.
Unless we act now to limit human-induced environmental degradation, history will
judge us as having been complacent in the face of compelling scientific evidence that humans
are changing the Earth’s environment with predominantly adverse effects on human health,268

ecological systems and socio-economic sectors. Do we really want our heritage to be that ofsacrificing the Earth’s biodiversity for cheap fossil fuel energy, ignoring the needs of future
generations, and failing to the meet the challenge of providing energy in an environmentallyand socially sustainable manner when so many choices were available? Leaders from government and industry must stand shoulder to shoulder to ensure that the future of the Earth is notneedlessly sacrificed.

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Slide 1-1

Slide 1-2

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 1

270

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 2

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 3

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 4271

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 5

Slide 3
Climate Change 1

Slide 3
Climate Change 2272

Slide 3
Climate Change 3

Slide 3
Climate Change 4

Slide 3
Climate Change 5273

Slide 3
Climate Change 6

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 1

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 2274

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 3

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 4

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 5275

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 6

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 7

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 8276

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 9

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 1

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 2277

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 3

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 4

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 5278

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 6

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 7

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 1

279

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 2

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 3

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 4

280

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 5

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 6

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 7

281

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 8

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 9a

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 9b

282

Slide 7
Water Security 1

Slide 7
Water Security 2

Slide 8Conclusion

283

Major Publications
Sir Bob Watson
Refereed Publications
Detection of the Ground State FO Radical in the Gas Phase, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett.,
12, 344, 1971.
Measurement of Ground State 2P3/2 Bromine and Chlorine Atom Concentrations in Discharge Flow Systems, M. A.
A. Clyne, H. W. Cruse, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. 1, 68, 1972.
Reactions of Chlorine Oxide Radicals. Part 4 - Rate Constants for the Reactions Cl + OClO, H + OClO, NO +OClO and O + ClO, P. P. Bemand, M. A. A. Clyne, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. 1, 69, 1356,
1973.
Atomic Resonance Fluorescence and Mass Spectrometry for Measurements of the Rate Constants for Elementary
Reactions: O(3P) + NO2 –> O2 + NO and NO + O3 –> NO2 + O2, P. P. Bemand, M .A. A. Clyne and R. T.
Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. II, 70, 564, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, I. System Description and Application to F
Atoms and FO Radicals, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. II, 70, 1109, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, II. Rapid Bimolecular Reactions Involving
2
the ClO π Radical, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 70, 2250, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, III. Elementary Reactions Involving BrO
X2π Radicals, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 70, 2250, 1974.
Reactions of Chlorine Oxide Radicals. Part V - The Reaction 2ClO (X2π) –> Products, M.A. A. Clyne, D. J.
McKenney, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 71, 322, 1975.
A Kinetic Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with Two C2 Hydrocarbons: C2H4, D. D. Davis, S. Fischer, R.
Schiff, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., 63, 1717, 1975.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part I. CH3Cl, CH2Cl2,
CHCl3, CH3Br, D. D. Davis, E. S. Machado, B. Conaway, Y. Oh, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., 65, 1268,
1976.
A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reactions of Cl(2P3/2) with O3, CH4 and H2O2, R. T. Watson, E. S.
Machado, S. Fischer, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 65, 2126, 1976.
Kinetics Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, IV. The Br + OClO and BrO + ClO
Reactions., M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 73, 1169, 1977.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part II. CH2ClF, CHF2Cl,
CHFCl2, CH3CH2Cl, CH3CCl3, CFCl2CF2Cl, R. T. Watson, E. S. Machado, S. Wagner, and D. D. Davis, J.
Chem. Soc., 81, 236, 1977.
High Resolution Absorption Cross-Sections for the A2π-X2π System of ClO, P. H. Pine, A. R. Ravishankara, D. L.
Philen, D. D. Davis, and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett., 50, 101, 1977.
A Quantum Yield Determination of O(1D) Production from Ozone Via Laser Flash Photolysis, D. L. Philen, R. T.
Watson, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 67, 3316, 1977.
A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reactions of HCl with OH and O(3P), A. R. Ravishankara, G.
Smith, R. T. Watson, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 81, 2220, 1977.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Aromatics and Olefins, A. R. Ravishankara, S.
Wagner, S. Fischer, G. Smith, R. Schiff,R. T. Watson, G. Tesi, and D. D. Davis, Int. J. Chem. Kinetics, 10, 783,
1978.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part III. CF3CHCl2,
CHClFCF3, CH2ClCH2Cl, R. T. Watson, E. S. Machado, S. Wagner, A. R. Ravishankara, and D. D. Davis, Int.
J. Chem. Kinetics, 11, 187, 1979.
Pressure and Temperature Dependence Kinetics Study of the NO + BrO –> NO2 + Br Reaction. Implications for
Stratospheric Bromine Photochemistry, R. T. Watson, S. P. Sander, and Y. L. Yung, J. Phys. Chem.., 83, 2936,
1979.
Atmospheric Bromine and Ozone Perturbations in the Lower Stratosphere, Y. L. Yung, J. P. Pinto, R. T. Watson, andS. P. Sander, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 339, 1980.
Laser Flash Photolysis of Ozone: O(1D) Quantum Yields in the Fall-Off Region 297-325 nm, J. C. Brock and R. T.

284

Watson, Chem Phys., 46, 477, 1980.
Kinetics Studies of the Reactions of CH3O2 with NO, NO2, and CH3O2 at 298K, S. P. Sander, and R. T. Watson, J.
Phys. Chem., 84, 1664, 1980.
Kinetic Study of the Cl(2P) + Cl2O –>Cl2ClO Reaction at 298K, G. W. Ray, L. F. Keyser, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys.
Chem., 84, 1674, 1980.
Temperature Dependence of the Rates of Reaction of Cl(2P3/2) with Simple Alkanes, R. W. Lewis, S. J. Wagner, S.
Sander, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 84, 2009, 1980.
Ozone Photolysis: Determination of the O(3P) Quantum Yield at 266 nm, J. C. Brock and R. T. Watson, Chem
Phys. Lett., 71, 371, 1980.
Temperature Dependence of the Reaction O(3P) + OH(2π)–>O2 + H, R. S. Lewis and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
84, 3495, 1980.
Kinetics Study of the Pressure Dependence of the BrO + NO2 Reaction at 298K, S. P. Sander, G. W. Ray, and R. T.
Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85, 199, 1981.
Rates and Mechanism of the Disproportionation of BrO Radicals, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
85, 4000, 1981.
A Kinetic Study of the Reaction NO + XO –> NO2 + X at 298K,G. W. Ray and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85,2955, 1981.
A Kinetics Study of the Reaction of SO2 with CH3O2, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett., 77, 473,.
1981.
Temperature Dependence of the Self-Reaction of CH3O2 Radicals, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
85, 2960, 1981.
Kinetics Studies of the HO2 + HO2 Reaction at 298K, S. P. Sander, M. Peterson, R. T. Watson, and R. Patrick, J.
Phys. Chem., 86, 1236, 1982.
A Kinetic Study of the NO + O3 Reaction, G. W. Ray, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85, 1673, 1981.
Stratospheric ozone depletion and future levels of atmospheric chlorine and bromine, M. J. Prather and R. T.
Watson, Nature, 344, 729, 1990.
Environmental threats and mitigation strategies in high-mountain areas, R.T. Watson and W. Haeberli, Ambio Spec.
Report 13, 2, 2004.
Mobilization, diffusion and use of scientific expertise, R.T. Watson and H. Gitay, IDDRI, 11, 2004.
Turning science into policy: challenges and experiences from the science-policy interface, R.T. Watson, Philos
Trans R Soc London B Bio Sci, 360, 1454, 2005.
Environmental Health Impacts of Global Climate Change, R.T. Watson, J. Patz, D.J. Gubler, E.A. Parson, and J.H.
Vincent, J. Environmental Monitoring, 7, 834, 2005.
Environment challenges and opportunities R.T. Watson, Editorial J. Environment Monitoring, 10, 288, 2008.
Biodiversity Conservation and the Millennium Development Goals, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Jonathan E. M. Baillie,
William J. Sutherland, Paul R. Armsworth, Neville Ash, John Beddington, Tim M. Blackburn, Ben Collen,
Barry Gardiner, Kevin J.Gaston, H. Charles J. Godfray, Rhys Green, Paul H. Harvey, Brett House,1 Sandra
Knapp, Noëlle F. Kümpel, David W. Macdonald, Georgina M. Mace, James Mallet, Adam Matthews, Robert
M. May, Owen Petchey, Andy Purvis, Dilys Roe, KamranSafi, Kerry Turner, Matt Walpole, Robert Watson andKate E. Jones, Science, September 2009.
Refereed National and International Scientific Assessments and Reviews
International Assessment by an Ad-hoc Group of Experts for the Convention on Biological Diversity on Climate
Change and Biodiversity 2009 (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Global Report (R.T. Watson, Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Volumes I-V (Regional Reports for Central and West Asia and North Africa; East and South Asia andthe Pacific; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America and Europe; and Sub-Saharan Africa) - (R.T.
Watson, Co-editor and Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Synthesis Report (R.T. Watson, Co-editor and Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Global Summary for Decision Makers, and Summaries for Decision Makers for Central and West Asia

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and North Africa; East and South Asia and the Pacific; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America andEurope; and Sub-Saharan Africa - Island Press (R.T. Watson, Director).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Living Beyond Our Means - Natural Assets and Human Well-Being:
Statement from the Board (R.T. Watson, co-author and Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Our Human Planet: Summary for
Decision Makers, Island Press ISBN 1-55963-387-5 (R.T. Watson, co-author and Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis Reports on: (i)Biodiversity - ISBN 1-56973-588-3; (ii) Desertification - ISBN 1-56973-590-5; (iii) Wetlands and Water ISBN1-56973-597-2; (iv) Marine and Coastal ecosystems - ISBN 92-807-2679-X; (v) Health; and (vi)Opportunities and Challenges for Business and Industry - ISBN 92-4-156309; (R.T. Watson, Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis, Island Press, ISBN
1-59726-040-1 (Board co-chair and contributing author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Chapter 4; Drivers in Volume I Conditions and Trends, Island Press(R.T. Watson, lead author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Chapter13; Climate in Volume III Responses, Island Press (R.T.
Watson, convening lead author).
United Nations Millennium Development Goal Task Force on Environmental Sustainability 2005: Environmentand Human Well-Being: a Practical strategy (R.T. Watson, task force member).
United Nations Millennium Development Goal Task Force on Environmental Sustainability 2005: Climate andEnergy paper (R.T. Watson, co-author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003: Conceptual Framework, Island Press, ISBN 1-55963-403-0 (R.T.
Watson, author and Board co-chair).
Convention on Biological Diversity 2003: An Assessment of the Interlinkages between Biological Diversity andClimate Change - (R.T. Watson, co-chair and lead author of Chapter 5.).
IPCC Technical Paper #5 - Climate Change and Biodiversity: 2002 (R.T. Watson co-editor and convening leadauthor).
IPCC Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report: 2001: ISBN 0 521 80770 0 (01507 3) (R. T. Watson Editor andChair of the core writing team).
IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: 2001 ISBN 0521 80767 0 (01495 6) (R. T. Watson, co-author of
the Summary for Policymakers).
IPCC Emissions Scenarios: 2000 ISBN 0 521 80081 1 (80493 0) (R.T. Watson, contributing author).
IPCC Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry: 2000 ISBN 0 521 80083 8 (80495 7) (R.T. Watson, Editor andChair of the writing team).
UNEP Synthesis of the Reports of the Scientific, Environmental Effects, and Technology and Economic Panels of
the Montreal Protocol: A Decade of Assessments for Decision Makers Regarding the Protection of the Ozone
Layer 1988-1999. ISBN: 92-807-1733-2 (R.T. Watson, member of the Editorial Team).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 44, 1998 (R. T. Watson, co-Chair).
IPCC WG #2: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability 1998, Cambridge
University Press, ISBN 0 521 632560 (634555) (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
IPCC WG #2: Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change: 1997 (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
IPCC WG #2: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change: 1995, Cambridge University Press, ISBN
0 521 56431 (56437) (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
Interagency Assessment of Potential Health Risks Associated with Oxygenated Gasoline National Science andTechnology Council (R. T. Watson, Chair).
UNEP Global Biodiversity Assessment: Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0 521 56403 (56481) 1995 (R. T.
Watson, Chair).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 37, 1994 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
Methyl Bromide: Its Atmospheric Science, Technology, and Economics: Montreal Protocol Assessment
Supplement, UNEP, 1992 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1991, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 25, 1992 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
Greenhouse Gases, R.T. Watson, Coordinating Author, Section A, Sources and Sinks-A1, Radiative Forcing of286

Climate-A2, Emissions Scenarios for IPCC: An Update-A-3 in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary
Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, U.K., 1992.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1990: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, M. J. Kurylo,
M. J. Prather, and F. M. Ormond, Submitted to EPA and Congress, September 1990. NASA Reference
Publication 1242.
Greenhouse Gases and Other Forcing Agencies, R. T. Watson, H. Rodhe, and H. Oeschger (lead authors) in
Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, U.K., 1990.
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 20, 1990 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chairman).
Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel - 1988, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project,
Report No. 18, 1990 (R. T. Watson, Chair).
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1988: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson and Ozone
Trends Panel, M. J. Prather and Ad Hoc Theory Panel, and M. J. Kurylo and NASA Panel for Data Evaluation,
Submitted to EPA and the Congress, June 1988. NASA Reference Publication 1208, 1988.
Assessment of Ozone Depletion and its Impacts, UNEP Coordinating Committee of the Ozone Layer, Report of
the Eighth Session, 1986.
Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling its Present Distribution
and Change, WMO Global Ozone and Monitoring Project, Report No. 16, 1986 (R. T. Watson - Chair).
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report. Processes That Control Ozone andOther Climatically Important Trace Gases, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1986. R. T. Watson,
R. S. Stolarski, M. A. Geller, and R. F. Hampson, Jr., NASA Reference Publication 1162, 1986.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #7, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan,
M. J. Molina, A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 85-37. 1985.
Assessment of Ozone Depletion and its Impacts, UNEP Coordinating Committee of the Ozone Layer, Report of
the Seventh Session, 1984.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, R. S. Stolarski, and
M. A. Geller, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1984.
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry: Supplement II CODATA Task Group on
Chemical Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys.
Chem. Ref. Data 13, 1259, 1984.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #6, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, M. J. Molina,
A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 83-62, 1983.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, R. S. Stolarski, and
M. A. Geller, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1982.
The Stratosphere 1981: Theory and Measurements. WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project,
Report #11, 1982. (R. T. Watson - Workshop Co-Chair).
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry; Supplement I CODATA Task Group on
Chemical Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, P. J. Crutzen, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T.
Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data 11, 327, 1982.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #5, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, M. J. Molina,
A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 82-57, 1982.
Chemical Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #4, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina,
L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 81-3, 1981.
Evaluation of the Effects of Chlorofluorocarbons on Atmospheric Ozone: Present Status of Research, reportpublished by the Commission of the European Communities, 1981 (R.T. Watson, co-author).
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry, CODATA Task Group on Chemical
Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref.
Data 9, 295, 1980.
Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Modelling, Evaluation #3, NASA Panel for Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore,D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson.

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Chapter 1, The Stratosphere: Present and Future, NASA Reference Publication 1049, 1979.
Chemical Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #2, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., F. Kaufman, M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan,
M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 79-27, 1979.
Laboratory Measurements of Rate Constants and Photochemical Cross-Sections and Quantum Yields, W. B.
DeMore, D. Garvin, R. F. Hampson, Jr., D. Golden, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson.
Chlorofluoromethanes and the Stratosphere, Chapter I, NASA Reference Publication 1010, 1977.
Rate Constants of ClOx of Atmospheric Interest, R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data, 6, 871, 1977.
Rate Constants of ClOx of Atmospheric Interest, R. T. Watson, Chemical Kinetics Data Survey VIII, National
Bureau of Standards Publication, NBSIR 74-516, 1974.
Key World Bank Publications
Strategic Approaches to Science and Technology in Development, Robert Watson, Michael Crawford and Sara
Farley World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3026, 2003.
Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, Watson et.al., April 2006.
Progress Report on the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development, Watson et.al; September 2006.
The Investment Framework for Clean Energy, Watson et.al., April 2007.
Book Chapters
I have contributed to about 10 book chapters but have never kept a record of them.

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