The 24th JASID Annual Conference, 2013

国際開発学会第24回全国大会（大阪大学）

モンゴルの自然災害への牧畜民のレジリエンス向上に関する分析～2009 年から 2010 年のドンドゴビ県で発生した“ゾド”の事例から～
中村洋
法政大学大学院政策科学研究科／地球・人間環境フォーラム
nakamura@gef.or.jp
キーワード：.経済階層移動、労働移動、貧困の罠、乾燥草原、非平衡系
1. はじめに途上国では低所得による低貯蓄、それに起因する低投資及び低生産の循環により所得が向上しない「貧困の罠（Poverty Traps）」が起こると指摘されている。本来マクロレベルの分析に用いられる理論だが、近年はミクロレベルで用い、外生ショックによる家計の経済
階層移動の分析に適応されている（黒崎, 2009）。
Cater et.al.（2007）はエチオピアにおける調査から、干ばつにより資産が減少し、貧困の罠に陥る世帯があることを報告した。一方、途上国の家計は生活水準が揺れ動くと言われており、経済階層移動が構造的なのか、一時的なのかを区別することが必要とされている。経済階層移動を引き起こす要因として天候や市場の急変等の外生ショックのリスクがあり、外生ショックにより絶対的な生活水準の低下が起こる家計は脆弱な家計とされ ている。Little et al.（2006）はエチオピアで干ばつの前後における家畜頭数の変化を調査し、自然災害に脆弱な世帯が増加したことを報告している。
モンゴル国の遊牧民にとって最大の外生ショックの一つは自然災害“ゾド”（Dzud）である。モンゴルでは冬から春にかけて放牧地の不足、悪天候を中心とした複合的な要因（篠田・森永, 2005; 森永, 2009）により家畜が大量死する自然災害“ゾド”（寒雪害）が発生する（Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001）。ゾドは繰り返し発生しており（小宮山, 2005; Sternberg
T., 2010）、モンゴル国で最大の労働人口が携わる牧畜業 にとって最大の外生ショックである（World Bank, 2006）。これまで、ゾドに関するさまざまな研究が行われ、ゾドの要因の分類や頭数変化、社会背景などが明らかにされてきた（湊, 2004; 小宮山, 2005; 篠田・森永, 2005; 森永, 2009; Sternberg, 2010）。しかし、モンゴルでは最大の外生ショックであるゾ
ドによる経済階層移動の分析は十分
ではない。
2. 目的
アフリカの牧畜民に対して行われた手法を参考にモンゴルにおける
外生ショックによる牧畜民の経済階
層移動について家畜頭数を中心とした分析を行う（イメージは図 1）。それとともに今後の放牧地利用に対する政策を提言する。

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国際開発学会第24回全国大会（大阪大学）

3. 調査概要(1) 調査地域
調査は 2009 年の冬から 2010 年の春に発生したゾドにより家畜頭数が約 48%（約 104万頭）減少し、モンゴル国最大の被害を蒙ったドンドゴビ県で行った。同県は面積 74、700km 2 、人口 37、700 人である（人口密度 0.51 人／km2 ）。牧畜業は県の GDP の 63%を占める主要産業で 135 万頭の家畜が飼われている（2011 年）。同県で牧畜民が集中し、利用できる放牧地に制限がかかり、従来の対処行動がとりづらくなった地域がある。調査は、その傾向が見られる同県の県庁所在地サインツァガーン郡で行った（ 人口密度約4 人／km2 、年間降水量が平均 131mm、年平均気温 2.3℃）。
(2) 調査方法
同郡で牧畜民が中心である第 2・3・4 村を対象とし、620 世帯（2009 年時点）から所
有家畜頭数に基づき層化抽出法により 148 世帯を選び、移動式住居“ゲル”を訪問し、構造化された調査票を用いた対面式の聞き取り調査を行った。調査は 2011・2012・2013
年の 1 月に同じ対象世帯に対してモンゴル国立農業大学と共同で実施した。調査票作成等のために牧畜民に聞き取り調査を行う等の予備調査を 2010 年 6 月、8 月に実施した。
4. 対象地域で発生したゾドの概要
対象地域でゾドによる家畜の死亡要因に関して行われた調査では、数日間続くことで家畜を放牧できなくなる嵐が頭数を減少させる主要因であった。また 、オトル（通常使う放牧地以外への畜群の移動）をしない、乾草を給飼できない世帯はゾド時に家畜頭数をより減少させていた（中村, 2013）。
5. 調査結果(1) ゾド後の経済階層の移動
Little et al. (2006)は牧畜民の資産を代表する指標として家畜頭数を用い、災害前の分類から災害 3 年後にどの所有頭数の分類に移動したかを分析した。モンゴルでは世帯あたり 100 頭以下の世帯を貧困とする基準がある（IMF, 2003）。
災害前の 2009 年末時
点では非貧困層であった 100 頭～200 頭を有する世帯の 55%、同 200 頭～400 頭の 24%が災害の3 年後にも継続的に貧困層に移動していた。
貧困ラインを超えた
移動が起こっていた災害前に 100 頭～200 頭を

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有していた世帯の中でも頭数を 50 頭程度以下まで減らした世帯は家畜を他の世帯に預け、都市部を中心とした生活に変化する傾向が見られた。それに対して 100 頭弱までの頭数減少におさえた世帯は牧畜を主に続け、頭数を回復させていた（図 2）。
(2) 家畜頭数の変化要因の分析
非災害時にも家畜頭数は繁殖・購入 により増加し、遊牧民間で譲渡や市場での販売、自家消費、死亡などにより減少しており、常に変化している（図 3）。そのため、災害時の変化と日常的な変化を明確にするために、これらを考慮して分析する必要がある。
また、災害後の世帯の頭数の回復率を左右する要因として妊娠可能なメスの頭数が考えられる。現地調査では牧畜民から共通してオスよりもメスが災害の影響を受けやすく、さらに妊娠したメスは最も影響を受けやすいとの回答があった。そのため、災害時に妊娠可能なメスを妊娠させていた場合には、より災害時にメスの頭数を減らし、災害後に頭数が回復しにくくな

フロー･イン（FI）（頭数増加）

ストック

畜統計に関する調査とFI1:購入、もらった（その年に生S1-1:去勢オス

FO1:遊牧民間での譲渡して行われるとともに

FI6:購入（その年S1-2:種オス

FO2:市場での販売ったことが考えられる。
現在、モンゴル国の家

まれた家畜除く）に生まれた家畜）

課税や融資に用いられ

FI5:販売S2:メス

る公文書でもある世帯

FO3:失くした
FI3:成長ごとの家畜台帳のデー
タを入手し、世代ごとのフロー･アウト(FO)（頭数減少）

S2-2:出産に適した年齢

FI4:死亡

経年の頭数変化を用い

FO4:自家消費

非妊娠
FI2:出生FO5:死亡妊娠（災害・病気含む）

た分析を行っている。学会報には予備的案分析

FO6:妊娠した家畜の減少（販売、死亡）

FI8:妊娠家畜の購入結果を報告予定である。
図3. 家畜頭数のストックと増減のフロー(3) 都市部での職を得る機会による家計の変化
家畜頭数を大きく減少させた世帯間でも都

1,600,000

市部での職を得る機会

1,400,000の有無により家計の現1,200,000は異なる（図 4）。学歴、専門技術（電気技術者、
調 理 食 堂 ）、 年 齢 （ 蛍 石
鉱 山 で の 肉 体 労 働 等 ）、年金がもらえるほどの
高齢、親族が会社経営者

年間総支出（Tg）

金消費支出の回復過程
1,000,000

継続
牧畜継続

800,000

非継続・無職
牧畜非継続・その後無職
非継続・転職
牧畜非継続・その後転職

600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2009年

2010年

2011年

2012年

などの要因により転職

図4．100頭～200頭を所有する世帯の所有家畜頭数の経年変化できた世帯は牧畜を続

継続 n=20、非継続・無職n=12、非継続・転職n=7

Global Environmental Forum

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国際開発学会第24回全国大会（大阪大学）

けた世帯と同レベルの現金消費支出にまで回復した。しかし、頭数が少ないために牧畜業を離れ、他の職も得られなかった世帯は現金支出の回復が比較的遅いことが分かった。
５．考察
頭数の少ない世帯は災害後に牧畜を継続できないリスクが高い傾向にある。このような世帯 はモ ン ゴル にお い て乾 草草 原 を長 きに 渡 って 利用 し てき た伝 統 的技 術で あ る オ トル
（通常使う放牧地以外への畜群の移動）をしない傾向にある。そのため、放牧地への圧力という自然環境面を考えると家畜頭数の少ない、移動性の低い世帯は特定の放牧地を使い続けることになり、結果として放牧地への負荷を増大させることが考えられる。
そのため、頭数の少ない世帯は災害に対しても脆弱性が高く、自然環境への圧力も高い
ことから、災害により家畜を多く失い、自ら牧畜をできなくなった世帯は他の所得機会を得やすくする政策をとり、牧畜から他の職への移動を促すことにより、災害の影響を受けにくい社会づくりと放牧地への圧力軽減の両立を行うことができると考えられる。
ただし、市場経済への移行期に都市部の産業が衰退した際には牧畜業が労働人口を吸収した経緯もある。経済的な外生ショックの発生時に牧畜業に戻れるような社会を維持することもモンゴル社会の安定につながると考えられる。ミルクや肉の消費といった文化 的側面も併せて考えると牧畜業を離れても一定の頭数を維持できる支援も必要と考えられる。
謝辞 本研究は法政大学大学院、総合地球環境学研究所が実施する研究プロジェクト「砂漠化をめぐる風と人と土」及び環境総合研究推進費「北東アジアの乾燥地生態系における生物多様性と遊牧の持続性についての研究」から支援を受けて行われた。
＜参考文献＞
黒崎卓 (2009) 「貧困と脆弱性の経済分析」 , 勁草書房
小宮山博 (2005) モンゴル国畜産業が蒙った 2000～2002 年ゾド（雪寒害）の実態 . 日本モンゴル学会紀要 , No.35, 73-85.
篠田雅人、 森永由紀 (2005) モンゴル国における気象災害の早期警戒システムの構築に向けて, 地理学評論 , 78(13), 928-950
中村洋 (2013) モンゴル国ドンドゴビ県で 2009 年～2010 年に発生した自然災害と牧畜民の対処行動, 環境情報科学学術研究論文集 27, 237-249
湊 邦 生 (2004) 移 動 牧 畜 と 牧 地 管 理 の 問 題 － モ ン ゴ ル 国 を 事 例 と し て － , 国 際 開 発 研 究 ,13(2), 1-13
森永由紀 (2009) モンゴル国の自然災害ゾド , 「朝倉世界地理講座 2 東北アジア」（境田清隆・
佐々木史郎・岡洋樹編） , 91-99, 朝倉書店.
Carter, M. R., Little, P.D., Mogues, T. & Negatu, W. (2007) Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in
Ethiopia and Honduras, World Development, 35(5), 835-856
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2003), Mongolia: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper,
International Monetary Fund
Little, P.D., Stone, M.P., Mogues, T., Castro, A.P. & Negatu, W. (2006) ‘Moving in Place’: Drought
and Poverty Dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia, Journal of Development Studies, 42(2), 200-225
Natsagdorj、 L. & Dulamsuren、 L. (2001) Some aspects of assessment of the dzud phenomena.
Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, 23(3), 3-18.
Sternberg T. (2010) Unraveling Mongolia’s Extreme Winter Disaster of 2010, Nomadic Peoples、
14(1), 72-86.
World Bank (2006) Mongolia Poverty Assessment, World Bank

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国際開発学会第24回全国大会（大阪大学）

Toward reducing cyclone vulnerability
and promoting resilience in Bangladesh
Akira Murata
JICA Research InstituteE-mail: Murata.Akira@jica.go.jp
Key Words: cyclone, flood, vulnerability, resilience, Bangladesh

1. Introduction
Reducing disaster vulnerability and promoting resilience have been a central issue on disaster
research. There are several past studies examining factors relating to the vulnerability (Khan, 1974;
Burton, Kates and White, 1993; Hewitt, 1997; Twigg and Bhatt, 1998; Weichselgartner, 2001,
Wisner et al., 2004; IFRC, 2006) as well as vulnerability and disaster responses (Zaman, 1988;
Haque and Zaman, 1994; Hutton and Haque, 2003, 2004; Edgeworth and Collins, 2006). The
frequency and intensity of natural disasters have increased globally in recent years (see IPCC 2001a,b; Khan and Rahman 2007). Among others, tropical cyclones1 and induced storm surges2 arerecognized as the foremost natural hazard (see Murty and El-Sabh 1992; Finkl 1994; Dube et al.
1997; Zerger et al. 2002; Benavente et al. 2006). Over the past two centuries, more than two million
people worldwide have died during various tropical storms, including cyclones, hurricanes andtyphoons, and tidal surge events (see Nicholls, 2003). On the face of the earth, the frequency of
cyclones has shown an upward tendency (see Haque et al., 2012). There has been great concern thatthe frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones will increase in the future due to global warming(see Emanuel 2005). The development and the intensity of tropical storms heavily depend on an
ocean temperature. Hence, increasing sea temperature as well as rising sea levels, caused by global
warming, will intensify the damage by cyclones and their associated storm surges (see Danard andMurty, 1987; Mohanti, 1990; Kausher et al., 1993; Ali, 1996; Islam, 2001; Brooks et al., 2005;
Birkmann, 2006; IPCC, 2007; Emanuel et al., 2008; UNDP, 2007; Dasgupta et al., 2009; Dasgupta etal., 2010; Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt, 2011a,b; Mamud and Barbier, 2011; Haque et al., 2012).3
Cyclone and after cyclone situation analysis revealed that for any types of moderate cyclone, there
are the following common occurrences: (i) destruction due to wind force and surge; (ii) loss of lives,

1

The World Meteorological Organization defines a tropical cyclone as “a storm in the south-east Indian Ocean with thesustained wind speed of more than 33 nautical miles per hour (i.e. 62 km per hour)” (see Haque et al., 2012).
2
A storm surge is the difference between the water level under the influence of a storm tide and the normal level thatwould have been reached in the absence of the meteorological disturbance (see Haque et al., 2012).
3
Climate scientists still argue about global warming and its influence on increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones
although they do not reach a compelling conclusion yet (see Ali 1996; Khan et al. 2000; IWTC 2006; Pielke et al. 2005;
Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005; Bengtsson, Hodges, and Roeckner 2006; Landsea et al. 2006; IPCC 2007;
Woodworth and Blackman 2004; Woth, Weisse, and von Storch 2006; Emanuel et al. 2008).

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livestock and crop by tidal wave; (iii) loss of soil fertility for spread of sea-spray, saline water
intrusion and sedimentation; (iv) water source contamination; (v) extensive environmental pollution;(vi) spread of diseases; (vii) unemployment and starvation (see Rahman and Biswas, 2011). Amongthese damages, loss of lives is mainly concentrated in the tropics, where most of the deaths occurredin Asia alone (see CRED, 2008). The countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal, notably Bangladesh,is particularly prone to the disaster by tropical cyclones, experiencing about ten percent of thetropical cyclone formation and more than 40 percent of total annual deaths caused by the cyclone allover the world (Ahmad, 2012). Bangladesh is currently ranked as one of the most vulnerable
countries to tropical cyclones (see IPCC, 2001a,b; IPCC 2007; UNDP, 2004; World Bank, 2005;
Disaster Management Bureau, GoB, 2010). According to the mortality risk index4, measured byUnited Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), four populous countries in
Asia – Bangladesh, China, India, and Indonesia – are classified as the extreme category for average
number of annual fatalities. This index shows that people in Bangladesh are most at the extreme risk
from tropical cyclones. The aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which factors contributed at
the household level to human losses caused by 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, which isprone to frequent disastrous cyclones and derive policy implications for future promotion ofresilience against disaster, particularly cyclones and floods. This paper mainly exploits the panel
data of Bangladesh Rural Household Survey conducted in 62 villages under 62 Upazilas from each
district of the country in 2004 and 2008. The remainder sections of this paper are structured asfollows: Section 2 describes the major disasters in Bangladesh. Section 3 summarizes several efforts
taken in Bangladesh in order to reduce disaster vulnerability and promote resilience against tropical
cyclones and associated storm surges. Section 3 briefly describes the Bangladesh Rural Household
Survey used for the paper. Then, the paper investigates the extent to which several factors including
both household and village characteristics, including disaster prevention infrastructure like cyclone
shelters, would contribute to reduction in human loss. Methodology and estimation results will be
explained in Section 5 and Section 6, respectively. The last section will conclude.

2. Disasters in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is prone to a wide variety of disasters such as sea level rise, cyclones and storm surge,
flood, land erosion, water logging, drought, salinity intrusion, river bank erosion, arsenic
contamination of ground water sources, environmental pollution, earthquakes, and tidal bore, whichlead to large scale impact on crop production, employment situation, household livelihoods andnational economy (Chowdhury, 1998; United Nations, 2008). These disaster vulnerabilities differ

4

The Mortality Risk Index identifies where people are most likely be at risk of sudden onset hazard, particularly tropical
cyclones, earthquakes, floods and landslides. This index is measured based on frequency and severity, human exposure
and identification of their vulnerability (for the detailed ranking, see http://www.unisdr.org/files/9928_MRIA3.pdf:
accessed on 11 April 2013).

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across the areas within Bangladesh (Islam and Ahmed, 2004). At least 70 major cyclones hit thecoastal belt of Bangladesh from the past 200 years. The Noakhali-Chittagong Coast received 40
percent of the cyclones, which is the most vulnerable area for the landfall of cyclones. The landfall
areas of cyclones that hit the Bangladesh coast is not uniform. Out of fifteen major cyclones since1960, nine mainly struck the south-east coast, four mainly struck the south-west coast, and two
affected the central and eastern coastal areas (BBS, 2009). It is predicted that global warning willcause an annual temperature rise in Bangladesh and result in greater frequency and intensity ofcyclonic storms. Chowdhury et al. (2012) estimated that during the period of 1985-2009, tropical
cyclones had an increase in annual frequency by 0.0492 cyclones per year. This upward trend in
cyclone frequencies is also obvious from the longer period of datasets (Chowdhury, 2008). Between
1891 and 2010, 180 cyclones with different magnitudes hit the coastal areas of Bangladesh. The
cyclones of 1970 and 1991 alone caused approximately 500,000 and 140,000 human casualties,
respectively. Around 900,000 people along the coast died in the last 35 years in the country. Amongthese areas, southeastern coast received around one-third of the total cyclones in the country.
Bangladesh is regarded as one of the countries which are vulnerable to cyclone and storm surges (seeMahmud and Prowse, 2012; Penning-Rowsell, Sultana, and Thompson, 2012; Mamud and Barbier,2011; Dasgupta et al., 2010). Nearly half of the world’s total deaths due to cyclones occurred in
Bangladesh (see Ali 1996). Geographical features worsen the damage by cyclones in Bangladesh.
The geographic location, unusual characteristics of tropical monsoon climate, a shallow continental
shelf with the confluence of three mighty river systems and funnel shaped estuary exacerbate
cyclone and surge impacts in Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2010; Paul 2009; Paul and Routray, 2011).
About ten percent of the territory of Bangladesh is only one meter above the mean sea level (Mohal
et al. 2006). Under such circumstances, even incrementally small elevations in sea level would doseverely and greater negative effects on coastal territory in the country. With respect to sea level rise,
Bangladesh has been rated as the third most vulnerable country in the world in terms of number ofpeople affected. Particularly, the coastal area of Bangladesh is well-known for severe cyclones andinduced surges (Paul 2009). In this area, cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon(Paul and Routray, 2011). At least one major tropical cyclone strikes the Bangladesh coast each year
(Mooley, 1980) with powerful tidal surges that impact hundreds of thousands of lives and make it
more unsafe than many other regions of the world (Murty and Neralla 1992). This coastal zone of
Bangladesh is one of the top ten potentially deadly locales, where live 29 percent (i.e. 40 million) of
the total population of the country (see Dasgupta et al. 2009). Among other cities, Chittagong andKhulna are found to be at higher risks for mortality and economic losses (Brecht et al., 2013).
Between 1877 and 2009 Bangladesh was hit by 159 cyclones, including 48 severe cyclonic storms,
43 cyclonic storms, 68 tropical depressions (see Ali, 1999; Miyan, 2005; Karim and Mimura, 2008).
Since record keeping commenced in 1877, more than one million people have died in the country as

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a result of cyclones. On average, a severe cyclone strikes Bangladesh every three years (GoB 2009).
Usually, those cyclones are reported particularly in the pre-monsoon months of April and May andthe post-monsoon months of October and November (Miyan, 2005). Most cyclones made landfall
along the coast of Bangladesh and caused catastrophe and casualties. More recently 2007 Cyclone
Sidr and 2009 Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh provided examples of devastating storm-surge impacts incoastal areas, which affect population, livelihoods, socio-economic systems, environments, andhealth (Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt, 2011a; Chowdhury, 1998, Alam et al., 2003). In the last three
decades, major floods have occurred in Bangladesh in 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007.5 During
each flood, hundreds of people have been killed. Damage to crops, small enterprises andinfrastructure was as high as several billion US dollars, severely disrupting the local economy.
Normally, 20 to 25 percent of the country is inundated during every monsoon season. In the case of
extreme flood events, 40 to 70 percent of the areas of the country can be inundated. The number andseverity of cyclones in Bangladesh and the associated human losses have varied greatly during thepast 50 years (see Haque et al., 2012). The two deadliest cyclones occurred in 1970 and 1991, withmore than 500,000 and almost 140,000 deaths, respectively. However, during the past twenty years,
Bangladesh has managed to reduce deaths and injuries from cyclones. For example, the recent severe
cyclone of 2007 caused 4,234 deaths, a dramatic reduction in human losses compared with thedevastating 1970 cyclone (see Haque et al. ,2012; Paul et al., 2010; Paul 2009). Mallick, Rahaman,
and Vogt (2011a) mentioned that this is particularly because of developing cyclone shelters and an
effective early warning system.

3. Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Disaster management in Bangladesh particularly for tropical cyclones is very reactive like otherdeveloping countries. Bangladesh gained independence in 1971, and before the independence, there
was hardly any effort in terms of disaster planning and management. As mentioned in the previous
section, in the 1970 cyclone, the death tolls were huge mainly because there was no dissemination of
cyclone warning by the government in those days (Islam, 2006). After independence, in order toreduce disaster vulnerability and promote resilience against tropical cyclones and associated storm
surges, several efforts and measures for disaster management have been taken in Bangladesh: 1)
cyclone preparedness programme (CPP); 2) construction of cyclone shelters and killas; 3) early
warning systems; 4) coastal embankment project; and 5) afforestation program.

5

Floods in Bangladesh are categorized as follows: (i) monsoon floods, which increase slowly and decrease slowly,
inundate vast areas and causes huge loss to the life and property; (ii) flash floods from sudden torrential flows, following
a brief intense rainstorm; (iii) tidal floods, which are of short duration but are generally three to six meter high; (iv) rain
floods caused by drainage congestion and heavy rain.

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3.1 Cyclone Preparedness Programme
Prevention measures for cyclone disaster have improved following the launch of the Cyclone
Preparedness Programme (CPP) established in 1972 under an agreement between the Bangladesh
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (Khan andRahman 2007; Paul and Dutt, 2010). The CPP includes the following activities: a) disseminating
cyclone warning signals issued by the Storm Warning Center (SWC) 12 through an extensive
telecommunication network; b) providing and assisting in first aid, rescue, relief and rehabilitation
operations; c) coordinating and building community capacity, disaster management and development
activities. The goal of the CPP is to minimize the loss of lives and property in cyclonic disasters bystrengthening and developing disaster preparedness and response capacity in coastal communities,
and by increasing the effectiveness of volunteers (Haque et al., 2012). The CPP covers elevencoastal districts, which are made up of 32 Upazilas consisting of 274 unions. Field-level work of the
CPP is based on 2,845 local CPP unites, which are distributed throughout coastal villages. Each unit
covers one or two villages with a population range between 2,000 and 3,000 people (Karim and
Mimura 2008; Paul, 2012; Paul et al., 2010). CPP volunteers in these villages are eventually
responsible for directly disseminating cyclone warnings to at-risk communities via megaphones andhouse-to-house visits and to assist in their evacuation. The warnings are also disseminated throughradio and TV news as well as local administration. The CPP volunteers have an important role for
cyclone warning dissemination to at-risk communities in Bangladesh. The volunteers are typicallyschool teachers, social workers, clergymen, local government officials and community leaders(Haque, 1995: 722). At the time of the 1991 cyclone, there were around 20,000 CPP volunteers
stationed in coastal districts (Chowdhury et al., 1993). The number increased more than double to42,675 between 1991 and 2007 (see Penning-Rowsell, Sultana, and Thompson, 2012; Paul et al.,2010; Paul, 2009).

3.2 Construction of Cyclone Shelters and Killas
At present, cyclone shelters in the coastal regions of Bangladesh play a very important role inprotecting human lives and livestock during cyclones. For example, during the Cyclone Sidr in 2007,
fifteen percent of the affected population took refuge in cyclone shelters. After the devastating
cyclone of 1970, the government and other agencies undertook construction of public cyclone
shelters (Dasgupta et al., 2010). A program to construct the cyclone shelters in the coastal areas of
Bangladesh was also initiated in 1972 to protect coastal residents from future cyclones andassociated storm surges (Paul, 2012). During 1972-1979, a sum total of 238 shelters wereconstructed in coastal districts out of which eleven shelters appeared to have been washed away.
Each shelter was capable of accommodating about 2,000 people during cyclones and tidal surges.
12This is a specialized unit of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (see Paul et al., 2010: 91).

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After 1985 cyclone, Bangladesh Red Crescent Society constructed 62 shelters and Caritas and otherNGO’s constructed twenty shelters. These shelters are two-storied frame building with free groundfloor and three meter height of RCC columns, which can accommodate 800 people during cyclones
and associated storm surges. After the devastating cyclone of 1991, various organizations like
Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, Ministry of Education with a Saudi grant, EEC, local Government
Engineering Bureau as well as several NGOs have constructed considerable number of cyclone
shelters with different types and designs (Mallick and Vogt, 2011; Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt,
2011a). There is a need for development of multipurpose cyclone shelters along the coastal areas.
During a normal period, these cyclone shelters are used as schools, community centers, and offices(Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt, 2011a,b; Paul, 2012). Recent design of the shelters has the overheadwater storage and the space to shelter livestock on the first floor, located on the floor under the space
for the evacuees (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Animals can approach to the shelters through the slope.
Many existing shelters are in dilapidated condition and have a host of problems, including
insufficient lighting, broken windows and doors, lack of water and sanitation facilities, and lack of
separate space for women. Worst of all, the shelters cannot accommodate all of the people who livein the cyclone-prone coastal districts (Paul and Dutt, 2010). According to the CEGIS survey in 2004,
more than 65 percent of the shelters had no provision for the special needs of women; almost no
facility was user friendly for people with disabilities; and 80 percent had no safe haven for livestock(Dasgupta et al., 2010). After Cyclone Sidr, the Bangladesh government initiated the construction of
2,000 new cyclone shelters in fifteen low-lying coastal districts, but the number and location of
shelters remain inadequate for the population (Haque et al., 2012). In many instances, politicians andgovernment officials selected shelter sites for political reasons rather than on the basis of safety
requirements and local conditions (Talukder, Roy, and Ahmad 1992). Paul and Dutt (2010) pointed
out that there are an insufficient number and an inadequate distribution of cyclone shelters. Many
lives could have been saved if more shelters had been situated near villages likely to be struck by
cyclones. Experts have already advised that a minimum of 3,000 additional cyclone shelters be built
in order to provide adequate shelters for coastal residents in Bangladesh. However, because distanceappears to be an important factor in determining the utilization or non-utilization of cyclone shelters,
these facilities need to be located within 1.5 kilometers of each village in the coastal zone. Thisparticular issue should receive the highest priority in the government’s CPP. A denser network ofsmaller public shelters would be preferable to less numerous and larger shelters because such a
network would reduce the house-to-shelter distance, which would not only encourage greater
utilization but also provide better protection of residents’ property. Even if with the sufficientnumber and the adequate distribution of the shelters, early warning messages need to be promptly
delivered to the households in the villages likely to be struck by cyclones. In addition to thedevelopment of cyclone shelters, nearly 200 raised earthen platforms called killas have also been

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constructed in the cyclone-prone areas to safeguard livestock from cyclones and storm surges (GoB,
2008). A killa can shelter 300 to 400 livestock (Talukder, Roy, and Ahmad 1992). In some cases, thekilla sites have been found to be inaccessible and undesirable. The maintenance of these facilities
has been very poor; most of them are full of bushes and have become a habitat for snakes andharmful insects. Similar to the situation with cyclone shelters, the number of killas established in
cyclone-prone coastal districts is insufficient to accommodate all livestock in these areas (Paul,2012).

3.3 Early Warning System
Early warning systems were introduced in South Asian countries after the devastating cyclone of1970. Although Bangladesh is extremely susceptible to catastrophic cyclones, the people’s responseto early warning systems has not been adequately and systematically investigated (Paul, 2012).
There is some evidence that the coastal inhabitants depend on indigenous early warning indicators of
cyclone hazard based on an observation of unusual weather, sea patterns and animal behavior(Hassan, 2000; Alam et al. 2003; Howell, 2003). In the past, the early warning and evacuation
systems of Bangladesh have played an important role in saving lives during cyclones. In general,
Bangladesh Meteorological Department issues forewarning for any impending cyclones and storm
surges; newspapers, television channels and radio stations broadcast the warning; and the local
government administration and the local Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) volunteers run by the
Red Crescent Society lead the evacuation of the people (Dasgupta et al., 2010). The Red CrescentSociety officials, CPP volunteers and residents of major cyclone affected areas pointed out theurgent need for broadcasting the warnings in the local dialects and the need to raise awareness forthe importance of timely evacuation. Using local dialects is of importance as illiterate poor people
often experience difficulties in understanding sophisticated Bengali (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Evenamong people with the timely receipt of news of 2009 Cyclone Aila, most of them did not pay
careful attention on the early warning messages as there was very little faith about the warnings
delivered from local radio (Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt, 2011a). This was the primary cause of
extreme human losses. Similarly, of the respondents who did not take refuge, 25 percent said thatthey did not receive any cyclone warnings prior to Cyclone Sidr’s landfall. Nearly nineteen percent
of non-evacuee respondents reported that they did not believe the cyclone warnings. One of the main
reasons for this disbelief was a false tsunami warning issued in Bangladesh two months before Sidr’s
landfall. Nearly fourteen percent of non-evacuee respondents did not comply with evacuation orders
either because the orders were issued long before the storm’s landfall or because of theincompleteness of the warning messages (Paul, 2012).

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3.4 Coastal Embankment ProjectIn addition to these measures, a coastal embankment project was initiated in Bangladesh in the 1960s
to increase crop production by preventing the intrusion of saline ocean water into crop fields locatednear the coast (Choudhury, Paul, and Paul 2004). Since then, a series of embankments have been
constructed to protect coastal regions, including around 4,000 km of coastal embankments
surrounding the Bay of Bengal and offshore islands (BWDB, 2000). In the 1960s, 123 polders andsupporting infrastructure were constructed to protect low-lying coastal areas against tidal flood andsalinity intrusion in Bangladesh (Mallick, Rahaman, and Vogt, 2011a). Later, after the ability ofembankments to reduce or prevent damage from cyclone and storm surges was demonstrated, theembankment project was extended to cover all coastal regions of the country (Khalil 1992).
Unfortunately, because of poor maintenance and inadequate management, most of the sea-facing
embankments are in very dilapidated condition, with numerous cuts or portions partially orcompletely eroded (Paul, 2012).

3.5 Afforestation Program
Moreover, after the 1966 cyclone, the government initiated a massive afforestation program along
the coastal zone, including in Sunderbans (Karim and Mimura 2008). Coastal forests not only
provide protection for residents and the environment against tidal and storm surges but also act as anatural barrier that slows surge waves and stabilizes coastal land (GoB, 2008). Coastal vegetation
was found to be protective during Cyclone Sidr when mangrove forests saved the south-western partof Bangladesh. During a different storm, it reduced the death toll from a cyclone in India in 1999
(Das and Vincent, 2009). Reforestation of approximately 1200 km2 of mangrove forests in
Bangladesh has been carried out to mitigate cyclone risk (Saenger and Siddiqi, 1993). Continued
technological advances will increase preparedness and help mitigate the effects of cyclones andassociated storm surges in Bangladesh (Haque et al., 2012). Although there is currently little
scientific evidence regarding the impact of disaster management measures such as cyclone shelters,
coastal embankments and/or awareness programmes on cyclone-related mortality, they appear tohave saved millions of lives. This study attempts to fill in this gap.

4

Data

In order to examine factors contributing to human losses caused by 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr,
this paper uses the panel data of Bangladesh Rural Household Survey conducted by Socioconsult Ltd.
in 62 villages under 62 Upazilas from each district of the country in 2004 and 2008. The surveys
were sponsored by IRRI, IFPRI and BRAC. In order to facilitate dialogues on strategies and policies
related to poverty reduction, the survey collected the following information: demography, migration,
agriculture and other livelihood sources, income and expenditure, consumption, housing, perception

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about changes in economic conditions. In addition, it also has collected information on village
profile such as population, total land, irrigated land, and flooded area. Furthermore, the 2008 survey
had the special module regarding the loss by 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr, including the loss ofproperty such as houses, crops and livestock as well as sources of funding for recovery. Based on the2008 survey, it was revealed that 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr damaged most households in Barisal
division, while it did little for those in Sylhet division. The damage by these natural disasters spreadall over the other districts, particularly coastal districts as well as districts along the Ganges (orPadma), Brahmaputra (or Jamuna), and Meghna Rivers.

5

Methodology

The methodological framework of this paper is based on the conventional risk hazard models (seeUNDP, 2004; Dao and Peduzzi, 2004; Turner et al. 2003; UN/ISDR, 2009). Risk is defined as theprobability of harmful consequences or expected losses of lives, resulting from interactions between
hazards, exposure, and vulnerable conditions (see UNDP, 2004; Turner et al., 2003). In practice,depending on availability of data, this can be measured by human loss due to hazard. This paper uses
household-level mortality as a measure of cyclone and storm surge impact. Thus, the model can be
written as follows:(1) Loss  f Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerabil ity 
where Loss denotes the household-level losses due to cyclone and associated storm surges, which arehuman losses from the 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr. Hazard refers to intensity of flood and cyclone
occurred in Bangladesh in 2007. Exposure is defined based on UN/ISDR (2009), stating that “people,
property, systems or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential
losses”. This can be measured by numbers of people or types of assets in a village. This study
utilizes the household data on family size and family composition before experiencing the disaster,particularly shares of family members potentially at high risk of exposure such as those of female,children, and old people. Similarly, as of vulnerability, UN/ISDR (2009) mentions that there aremany aspects, resulting from economic, social, and physical features which vary significantly within
the village and over time. Vulnerability is defined as the characteristics and circumstances ofhouseholds and villages that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. Here, the paper
measures the vulnerability using the following variables: household welfare; housing material;
access to information on disaster warnings and cyclone shelters; and village population density. In
order to examine factors influencing human loss caused by the 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr, we use
the empirical model which can be express as follows:(2)

hlossij  α  β1  cyclone j  β2  flood j  β3  fsizei  β4  female i  β5  age0_5i  β6  age65overi
 β7  welfare i  β8  wall_d i  β9  tv_di  β10  shelter j  β11  popden j  12  interact i  εwhere hlossij denotes either human or economic losses within the i th household in the j th village.

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This is approximately measured by reduction in family size during the said period as the 2008 survey
did not directly ask the respondents about the number of the dead caused by flood and cyclone
occurred in 2007. The number of babies born during this period was excluded from this estimation.
In order to estimate the extent to which family size decreased, number of migrants was also taken
into account as some family members might stay away from a household head. With regard tohuman loss, the dummy variable of hloss_dij was also generated for logistic regression estimates. In
addition, a decrease (or an increase) in family size due to its split (or extension) due to marriage,
divorce, and separation was also considered when the level of human loss was estimated. cyclonej
refers to a tropical cyclone intensity, which is measured based on a wind speed at village level. Thisis a measure of how affected a village household is by Cyclone Sidr in 2007. Following Yang (2008),
this affectedness is estimated by the square of the wind speed above the tropical storm wind speed
threshold (i.e. 38 mph), normalized by the maximum of this variable (i.e. wMAX = 200 mph) as thepressure exerted by winds on structures is in general modeled as rising in a squared term rather thana linear relation (see Emanuel, 2005). This is given by:w  38 2(3) cyclone j jwMAX  38 2

where wj is the wind speed (in mph) to which village households were exposed in their location j,which is estimated based on CEGIS (2008). This cyclone intensity measure has the range of zero toone. If households were exposed to the maximum wind speed, this measure is one, while it becomeszero if the wind speed is below the tropical storm wind speed threshold (i.e. 38mph). floodj refers to
the intensity of the flood occurred in 2007. This captures the extent to which a village was affectedby flood in 2007, which is defined as a proportion of the land flooded by 50 cm and more deep water.
This flood information was derived from the 2008 Rural Household Survey. fsizei is the natural
logarithm of number of total family members in 2004. For the shares of female family members,family members aged zero to five, and family members aged 65 and over as of 2004, we used thevariables of femalei, age0_5i, and age65overi, respectively. welfarei shows the welfare level of the ith household, defined by per capita annual expenditure on essential commodities in 2004. It has thecharacteristics of a skewed to the right distribution. In order to make this variable normally
distributed, we take the logarithm of the variable. popdenj is a population density in the j th village.
In addition to the above variables in the estimation equations, the several dummy variables are also
added to capture the effects of each factor influencing the human losses. The variable wall_di
identifies housing vulnerability. Access to disaster-related warnings also matters when households
face the disaster like flood and cyclone. Ownership of a TV set was included as a dummy variable of
tv_di, to consider its effect on human suffering. The interaction terms of tv_di, and each hazard
variable was also included in the model. For examining whether existing cyclone shelters could
contribute to reduction in the losses, the dummy variable, shelteri, was included in one of the

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explanatory variables in the estimation models. This variable denotes whether there is a cyclone
shelter within a village or not. Table 1 and Table 2 show the definition of variables used in theanalysis and their summary statistics. When it comes to the dependent variable, nearly two-thirds ofhouseholds did not experience any human loss after the 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr (see Table 2).
In equation (2), the dependent variable hlossij is the household-level human death figures and is a
non-negative count variable, and thus the estimation equation is expected to take a Poisson or someother count model approximations such as a negative binomial model and a hurdle model (ortwo-part model). Figure 1 shows the actual distribution of hlossij. In order to examine whether deathoccurred or not in a household, we also use a dichotomous variable, i.e. hloss_dij for a logit
approximation, instead of hlossij in equation (2). In the next section, we first separately estimate theprobability of human loss using a logit regression and its level using both Poisson and negative
binomial models. Then, we consider the hurdle model (or two-part model) which takes into accountthe models of the probability and the level of human deaths and relaxes the assumption that the zeros
and the positives come from the same data-generating process. The two parts of the model arefunctionally independent. The first part (i.e. a probability equation) uses the full sample, but thesecond part (i.e. a level equation) uses only the positive count observations. We use the logit modelfor the first part, while the zero-truncated Poisson or the zero-truncated negative binomial model forthe second part.

Table 1. Definition of variables used
Variable Name
Loss
hloss_dhloss
Hazardcycloneflood
Exposure
fsize
femaleage0_5age65overVulnerability
welfarewall_dtv_dshelter
popdenVariable Description=1 if human loss within a household between 2004-2008; =0 otherwise
Number of human deaths within a household between 2004-2008
Tropical cyclone intensity (based on wind speed, mph)
Flood affected area
The natural logarithm of number of total family members in 2004
Share of female family members in 2004
Share of family members aged 0-aged 5 in 2004
Share of family members aged 65 and over in 2004
The natural logarithm of per capita annual expenditure on essential commodities in 2004
=1 if wall is made of concrete; =0 otherwise=1 if a household owns a TV set; =0 otherwise=1 if there is a cyclone shelter within a village; =0 otherwise
Village population density

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Table 2. Summary Statistics
Variable Name
Loss
hloss_dhloss
hloss (if hloss > 0)
Hazardcycloneflood
Exposure
fsize
femaleage0_5age65overVulnerability
welfarewall_dtv_dshelter
popdenObs

MeanStd. Dev.

Min

Max

1722
1722
603

0.350
0.510
1.458

0.477
0.937
1.063

0
0
1

1
11
11

1742
1742

0.138
0.408

0.216
0.341

0
0

1
1

1739
1739
1739
1739

1.512
0.494
0.117
0.054

0.450
0.181
0.147
0.147

0
0
0
0

3.045
1
0.667
1

1739
1742
1742
1742
1742

8.059
0.175
0.300
0.017
6.983

0.682
0.380
0.458
0.128
5.121

5.407
0
0
0
0.735

11.55
1
1
1
28

0

500

Frequency

1000

Figure 1. Distribution of human loss, at household level

0

2

4

6

8

10

hloss

6

Factors influencing human deaths by cyclone

The five sets of models examined factors influencing the human loss caused by the 2007 flood andCyclone Sidr (see Table 3). As mentioned in the methodology section, the first three columns show
the estimation results of the models which separately examine the probability and the level of thehuman loss, using the logit model and the Poisson or negative binomial models respectively. On the443

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other hand, the columns of Model 4 and Model 5 are the results derived from the hurdle models (ortwo-part model) which are the mixture of the logit estimation for the probability equation and the
Poisson or the negative binomial models for the level equations. In order to find the estimation
model which best fits the data, the commonly used model-comparison statistics of log likelihood andAkeike information criteria (AIC) are computed (see Table 4). These criteria suggest that Model 5
provides the best fitting specification as higher log likelihood and smaller AIC are preferred. Thus,in this section, we mainly discuss the result of Model 5 in Table 3.

Table 3. Marginal effect and standard error estimates of the human deaths (or cyclone
impact) function: Dependent variable = hloss_d (for Logit) /hloss (for either Poisson or NB2)

Hazardcycloneflood
Exposure
fsize
femaleage0_5age65overVulnerability
welfarewall_dtv_dshelter
popdenNumber of obs

NB2(Level)Model 4
Poisson hurdle
Logit
Poisson(Probability)(Level)Logit(Probability)

NB2(Level)0.1758**(0.0870)0.0236(0.0638)

0.1796**(0.0898)
0.0269(0.0645)0.1033**(0.0408)0.0016(0.0410)0.2284(0.1900)
0.1305(0.1044)0.1033**(0.0408)0.0016(0.0410)0.1273(0.1235)
0.0663(0.0731)0.3171***(0.0283)
0.4213***(0.0648)0.0472(0.0970)0.1280(0.0958)

0.7689***(0.0648)0.6818***(0.1324)-0.1174(0.1743)
0.4039**(0.1946)

0.7555***(0.0594)
0.6830***(0.1300)-0.0974(0.1720)
0.3987**(0.1901)

0.3483***(0.0350)
0.4628***(0.0739)0.0519(0.1066)
0.1406(0.1055)

1.0730***(0.0953)
0.0239(0.2649)-0.7969**(0.3170)
0.8225***(0.2830)

0.3483***(0.0350)
0.4628***(0.0739)0.0519(0.1066)
0.1406(0.1055)

0.6012***(0.1992)
0.0404(0.1460)-0.4876**(0.2389)
0.3962**(0.1806)-0.0457***(0.0175)-0.0303(0.0305)-0.0658***(0.0248)-0.1114***(0.0227)-0.0012(0.0024)1722-0.0601*(0.0325)-0.1173*(0.0697)-0.0636(0.0466)-0.2390***(0.0468)-0.0009(0.0030)1722-0.0535*(0.0299)-0.1191*(0.0656)-0.0683(0.0462)-0.2284***(0.0475)-0.0009(0.0029)1722-0.0502***(0.0192)-0.0332(0.0335)-0.0718***(0.0265)-0.1223***(0.0251)-0.0013(0.0027)1722

0.0140(0.0916)-0.2494(0.1551)
0.0723(0.0969)-0.1765(0.1249)
0.0065(0.0057)603-0.0502***(0.0192)-0.0332(0.0335)-0.0718***(0.0265)-0.1223***(0.0251)-0.0013(0.0027)1722

0.0185(0.0449)-0.1483(0.1263)0.0374(0.0633)-0.1121(0.0735)0.0045(0.0031)603

Model 1Model 2Model 3

Logit
(Probability)

Poisson(Level)0.0936**(0.0371)0.0018(0.0368)

Model 5
NB2 hurdle

Note: a) * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. b) NB2 denotes a negative binomial model. c) The
interactions of tv_d and hazard variables (i.e. cyclone and flood) are used for the coefficient estimations.

Table 4. Model selection for a level equation

Model
Model 2: Poisson
Model 3: Negative Binomial (NB2)
Model 4: Poisson hurdle
Model 5: Negative Binomial hurdle (NB2 hurdle)

Log Likelihood-1545.67-1523.19-1515.20-1499.48

Note: Akeike information criteria (AIC)

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AIC
3117.343074.393082.403052.96

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6.1 Hazard and human deaths
Our estimation result found the positive correlation between the wind speed of Cyclone Sidr and theprobability of the human loss. But the flood affectedness by the cyclone was not found to
significantly increase its probability though the effect was positive. Contrary to expectations, thisstudy did not find a significant influence of the intensities of the wind speed and the sizes of flood
affected area on the level of the human loss among the household with dead family members, which
is significantly determined by household exposure to the cyclone.

6.2 Exposure and human deaths
The factors related to the exposure, particularly family size, significantly affect both the probability
and the level of the human deaths by Cyclone Sidr. The greater the number of family members is, thehousehold has a higher risk of losing their lives. This is a predictable result. With regard to the
influences of family composition, this study confirms that the households with higher shares offemale have a greater probability of having a loss of their family members. This is explained by thefact that female is more vulnerable in Bangladesh mainly because of its social and cultural aspects.
In the past studies, women’s willingness to stay their homes even during cyclones, a mother’s
protective instinct to save her children, and women’s clothes (i.e. sarees) and their long hair hinder
movement while trying to swim in tidal waves have all been cited as reasons for the higher risk ofdeath (see Alam and Collins, 2010). In addition, Sharmin and Islam (2013) also mentioned thatfemale’s limited decision-making processes increases their vulnerability to natural disasters. For
example, in the face of the cyclone and flood of 1991 in Bangladesh, warning information wastransmitted by men to men in public spaces, but male members rarely communicated to the rest of
the family. Even women were not allowed to leave the house without male, and as a consequence
they perished waiting for their male members to return home and take them to a safe place.
Moreover, as in many other Asian countries, most Bengali women have never learned to swim whichsignificantly reduces their survival chances in case of flooding. Furthermore, women often do not go
to the cyclone shelters due to an insecure environment there and hence, they prefer to stay backhome during a cyclone. Such deliberate actions were results of social insecurity. The study also
found that the share of the elderly persons has the positive effect on the number of human deaths
while the share of small children shows the opposite role if they lost the life of at least one family
member. The elderly have a tendency to dismiss warnings in a cognitive process framed bysituational factors, such as compromised mobility and media access (Gruntfest, 1987; Paul, 2012). In
general, past studies have stated that children are also vulnerable to cyclones. However, Alam andCollins (2010) mentioned that mothers have protective instincts and are prepared to die trying tosave her children.

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6.3 Vulnerability and human deaths
The household vulnerability factors were found to only influence the probability of the human loss
caused by Cyclone Sidr. The important findings to derive from our estimation models are that thehouseholds with access to cyclone shelter and disaster-related warnings significantly have the lower
probability of experiencing the loss of their family members. An improvement in the access to them
could contribute to a significant reduction in the cyclone victims. Moreover, strong evidence of thegreater death risk was found for poorer households. This can be explained by the fact that poor
households are less likely to have access to multiple media or certain technologies, thus inhibiting
reception of cyclone warnings, and also to live in the areas with more vulnerable to the disaster, forexample those near from the river or along the coast and those without land elevation.

7

Conclusion

This paper has given an account of the reasons for disaster vulnerability in Bangladesh, which isparticularly prone to the disaster by tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In order to reduce
disaster vulnerability and promote resilience against tropical cyclones and associated storm surges,
several efforts have been taken in Bangladesh: cyclone preparedness programme (CPP); constructionof cyclone shelters and killas; early warning systems; coastal embankment project; and afforestation
program. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the extent to which factors contributed at thehousehold level to human loss caused by 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh. In doing so,
the paper mainly exploits the panel data of Bangladesh Rural Household Survey conducted in 62
villages under 62 Upazilas from each district of the country in 2004 and 2008. First, the results ofthis investigation show that there is evidence that the existence of cyclone shelters significantly
contributed to saving lives during the 2007 flood and Cyclone Sidr. Second, the finding of the study
revealed that the access to disaster-related warnings matters. The ownership of a TV set has an
indispensable role to save local people in that regard. Lastly, family composition, particularly theshares of female and the elderly in a household, was found to significantly influence the human loss.
In order to reduce the number of deaths, further attempts with the community-based supports and achange in the cultural mindsets are needed to save greater numbers of the elderly or female cyclone
sufferers.

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Selected References
Alam, E. and Collins, A.E. (2010) Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal
Bangladesh. Disasters, 34(4): 931-954.

Dasgupta S., Laplante, B., Meisner, D., Wheeler, D., and Yan, J. (2009). The impact of sea‐level
rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. Climatic Change, Vol. 93, No. 3, 379‐388.
Dasgupta, S., Huq, M., Khan Z.H., Ahmed, M.M.Z., Mukherjee, N., Khan, M.F., and Pandey, K.
(2010) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a changing climate, Policy Research Working
Paper WP5280, World Bank.

Haque, U., Hashizume, M., Kolivras, K.N., Overgaard, H.J., Das, B., and Yamamoto, T. (2012)
Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done? Bulletin of theWorld Health Organization, 90(2), 150-156.

Paul, B.K. and Dutt, S. (2010) Hazard Warnings and Responses to evacuation orders: The case of
Bangladesh`s cyclone Sidr. The Geographical Review, 100(3), 336-355.

Paul, B.K. Rashid, H. Islam, M.S. and Hunt, L.M. (2010) Cyclone evacuation in Bangladesh.
Tropical cyclones Gorky (1991) vs. Sidr (2007). Environmental Hazards, 9, 89-101.

Paul, S.K. and Routray, J.K. (2011) Household response to cyclone and induced surge in coastal
Bangladesh: coping strategies and explanatory variables. Natural Hazards, 57, 477-499.

Paul, B.K. (2012) Factors affecting evacuation behavior: The case of 2007 Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh.
The Professional Geographer, 64(3), 401-414.

Penning-Rowsell, E.C., Sultana, P., and Thompson, P.M. (2012) The `last resort` Population
movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh. Environmental Science & Policy,
27(1), S44-S59.

Sharmin, Z. and Islam, M.S. (2013) Consequences of Climate Change and Gender Vulnerability:
Bangladesh Perspective. Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series 16, Bangladesh
Development Research Center, U.S.A.

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複雑化する国際環境とわが国の国際人道 支援の変遷
○柳沢香枝

喜多悦子

北林春美

JICA

笹川記念保健協力財団

お茶の水女子大学

青山温子
名古屋大学

Yanagisawa.Kae@jica.go.jp
キーワード：緊急人道支援、自然災害、紛争、Complex Humanitarian Emergency、JDR、PKO
1．はじめに「人道支援」は、一般的に、「災害や紛争によって影響を受けた人々の生命を救い、苦しみを軽減し、人間の尊厳を守るための支援」と定義されている。また開発援助との対比
においては、開発援助が、途上国が実施する投資事業への資金的支援や人材育成、政策支援など、相手国の能力の活用を基本としているのに対し、人道支援は「一時的に能力を発揮できなくなっている人々に対する人的・物的な直接支援である 」と言うこともできる。
わが国の本格的な国際的人道支援活動は、1970 年代末のタイ・カンボジア国境の難民支援に始まり、その後 30 余年の間に、体制、機能などにおいて大きな進展を遂げてきた。本稿では、政府が実施する国際緊急人道支援を中心にその歴史を振り返り、現在までに達成された成果を抽出するともに、」現在の国際環境の中での課題について検討する。
２．わが国の国際緊急人道支援の歴史
1979 年 1 月のポル・ポト政権の崩壊により、カンボジアからタイに流出した 150 万人（ピーク時）に達する難民に対し、国連及び米欧の国際 NGO は医療支援を中心に大規模な救援活動を展開した。しかし、当時の日本にはこのような人道危機に対応できる体制が整備されておらず、6,000 万ドルに及ぶ資金提供を表明したものの、「世界第 2 位の経済大国でありながらアジアの人道問題を座視している」として国内外の批判を受けることとなった。
こ う し た 批 判 に 応 え る た め に 急 遽 結 成 さ れ た の が 、「 カ ン ボ ジア 難 民 救 援 医 療 チ ー ム 」（Japan Medical Team: JMT）である。JMT の名の下、1980 年～82 年の間に計 13 チーム、407 名の医療従事者が派遣された。この時の要員は、日本政府が国公立の病院や国立大学等に働きかけることにより確保されたが、通常業務を中断しての 3 か月単位での派遣であったため、その過程には多大な苦労を伴った。更に「出口戦略」が明確でなかったことから、他のドナーが撤退したあとも支援継続を余儀なくされた。
この反省に基づき、緊急時に政府が即座に召集・派遣できる体制を予め整備しておくことを目的として、1982 年、「 国際救急医療チーム」（ Japan Medical Team for Disaster Relief:
JMTDR）の設立が閣議で了承された。JMTDR は登録制により広く人材を確保し、外務省・JICA
が事務局機能を務める、いわば「官制ボランティア組織」として 成立した。JMTDR の派遣
は、1984 年のエチオピアの干ばつ被害による国内避難民への支援が最初であり、救援物資の供与も同時期に開始された。その後、先進各国の緊急人道支援を学ぶ中で、医療支援だ
けでなく、総合的な支援体制を整備する必要性が認識され、1987 年に「国際緊急援助隊の派遣に関する法律」が成立した。この法（通称 JDR 法、JDR: Japan Disaster Relief）整備により、医療チームに加え、救命救助を目的とする救助チーム 及び災害後の様々な対応

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への助言を行う専門家チームが国際緊急援助隊の構成要素となった。
その後、大きな転換点となったのは 1992 年の「国際平和協力法」(通称 PKO 法、PKO: Peace
Keeping Operations)の成立である。PKO 法はわが国の国連平和維持活動（PKO）への参加を可能にするために制定された法である。この審議の過程で、国際緊急援助隊との関係について外務省は、「JDR 法は自然災害及び紛争に起因しない人為災害に適用される」と 国会で説明した。その結果、1991 年のクルド難民支援を最後に、紛争により発生した難民や国内避難民への支援は国際緊急援助隊による支援の対象外であるというのが、一般的な了解事項となった。また PKO 法と同時に JDR 法も改正され、自衛隊が国際緊急援助活動を行うことが可能となった。この時に確立した体制は、現在に至るまで基本的に変わっていない。
2000 年以降、世界各地で発生する災害は激甚化し、わが国もその都度人員の派遣、物資の供与、資金（緊急無償資金）の供与を組み合わせて対応してきた。中でも 2004 年 12 月末に発生したスマトラ沖地震・津波災害に対しては、医療、救助、専門家、自衛隊部隊を合わせ、最大規模のオペレーションを展開した。
３．国際緊急人道支援の質の向上（１）高い意欲と統一した理念を持つ医療チーム
カンボジア難民支援の経験を元に設立された医療チーム（JMTDR）は、いくつかの基本原則に沿って運営されている。その第一は、所属、職業、居住地、国籍を問わず、個人の自発的意思に基づく登録制により待機態勢を維持すること、第二は 、全員が同じ理念と方式に基づいて行動することである。この原則に基づき、現在、災害医療の第一人者をチームのコア・グループとしつつも、全国各地の様々な専門性を持つ 1,000 名を超える人材（非医療従事者を含む）が登録している。また新規登録者に対する導入 研修や、既登録者に対する専門別の中級研修（年 3 回）により、統一した行動様式や診療方式の浸透を図っている。医療チームが派遣されるごとに教訓が抽出され、次の研修に反映されている他、手術機能の付加などの強化策にも取り組んでいる。
更に、薬剤の使用や廃棄において国際標準を順守すること、現地の医療水準との調和を目指すことなども重要な基本原則であり、現地の医療が復旧した段階で撤退するという出口戦略も明確にされている。
（２）国際標準に沿って整備された救助チーム
JDR 法成立後、救助チームの最初の派遣は、1990 年のイラン地震災害であった。この時の隊員はわずか 15 名の小規模チームだった。現在、救助チームは 70 名弱の編成となり、レスキュー隊員だけでなく、医療班や建築物の構造評価専門家も含む構成となっている。
このような体制に整備されてきた背景には、国際捜索救助諮問グループ（International
Search and Rescue Advisory Group: INSARAG）の存在がある。INSARAG は、1988 年のアルメニア地震に対する国際支援の混乱を背景に、問題意識を共有する国が集まって作ったインフォーマルなネットワークであり、創立メンバーには JICA の若手職員も名を連ねていた。
国連人道問題調整事務所（Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: OHCA）が、事務局となっている。INSARAG は、各国のチームが最低限備えるべき技術レベル、組織・体制、派遣から撤収に至るまでの手順、調整の枠組みへの参加方法などをガイドラインとしてまとめるとともに、各国の能力を分類するための検定（ピア・レビュー）を実施して449

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いる。日本の救助チームは 2010 年に最高レベルであるヘビー・チームに認定されたが、その過程で、ガイドラインに基づく体制整備が行われた。
また、日本は、国連が主導する調整の枠組みである国連災害評価調整チームへの要員の登録・派遣や、運営委員会での議論にも、積極的に貢献している。
（３）NGO による緊急人道支援の拡大
国際的に緊急人道支援を行うわが国の NGO は、カンボジア難民支援を機に設立されたとされているが、その後海外で人道支援を行う NGO は徐々に増えていった。しかし単独の NGO
では十分な財源の確保ができないという制約があり、その克服のため、2000 年に NGO、政府、企業のパートナーシップにより国際人道支援を展開するためのジャパン・プラットフ
ォーム（JPF）が設立された。
国際的には、国際赤十字・赤新月社連盟、国際赤十字委員会及び国際 NGO が人道支援の倫理上の原則を列記した「行動規範」を 1994 年に策定したが、同規範に調印済みの日本のNGO も 25 を超えている（世界全体では 515 団体）。更に、国際 NGO は 1997 年にスフィア・
プロジェクトを立ち上げ、「人道憲章と人道的対応における最低基準」（スフィア・スタン
ダード）を策定し、2003 年には人道支援の説明責任を強化するための[人道説明責任パー
トナーシップ]を開始した。2005 年の「人道改革」では、人道支援に関わる国連機関、政府機関及び国際 NGO が分野ごとにクラスターに属し、情報共有や調整を行うしくみが導入された。これらの一連の動きに関し、日本国内では政府機関よりも NGO 内で理解が浸透している。
４．わが国の国際緊急人道支援の課題（１）自然災害による避難民に対する長期間の包括的な支援の強化
自然災害に対する国際支援では、災害発生後の救援だけでなく、防災・減災、災害発生時の対応、復旧・復興を一つのサイクルととらえ、その全ての過程においてリスク軽減に努力することが求められている。わが国は、1980 年代より防災・減災に対する資金協力・技術協力を実施してきており、スマトラ沖地震・津波やハイチ地震（2010 年）等の復旧・復興支援も積極的に行っている。特に救援から復旧・復興までの期間を短くする「継ぎ目のない協力」を重視し、災害発生直後から復旧・復興のためのニーズ調査を実施するなどの工夫を行っている。
しかしながら、被災者の立場から救援の過程をつぶさに見ると、復旧・復興に至るまでの継続的な支援が行われているとは言い難い。途上国での大規模な災害発生時には、被災者が正常な生活に戻るまで、長期間にわたる避難生活を送ることを余儀なくされることが多々ある。そうした場合、感染症、妊産婦の健康、高齢者への配慮、栄養、児童の教育、
水と衛生、人権や尊厳の観点からの「保護」など、様々な領域に関する支援が必要である。
こうした点に関しては、外務省が国連機関等を経由して実施する緊急無償資金協力や、NGOの活動によって部分的にカバーされているものの、支援ニーズの包括的な評価や対応計画を策定したうえでの支援とはなっていない。
その原因としていくつかの点が考えられる。第一は、わが国の政治家、政府関係者、国民に共通する「迅速な対応への強い関心」である。
「緊急」人道支援という名称が示すように、発生した災害に対して即座に対応することに価値を見出す考え方が一般的である一方、450

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急性期が過ぎた後の状況については忘れられがちである。第二の点は、まさにわが国の緊急人道支援の歴史に由来するが、政府が直接動員・派遣できる人員の待機態勢が、国内で主要業務を持つ集団によって成り立っているということである。この集団は海外で人道支援を行うことに特化した恒常的組織ではないが故に、活 動期間も短くならざるを得ない。
これらのことから、緊急人道支援は「一過性のイベント」になりがちである。海外での人道支援を本業とする NGO であれば息が長い支援が可能であるので、今後は NGO も主要なプ
レーヤーの一員として政府の対応計画の中に組み入れていくといった包括的なアプローチが必要であろう。
（２）紛争起因の人道危機への対応の強化
前述の PKO 法の成立を機に、紛争起因の人道危機（Complex Humanitarian Emergency）
に対しては、JDR 法の下での人的支援は行われていない。他方、PKO 法が定める国際平和協力業務の中には、国連 PKO への参加に加え、選挙監視活動や国際的な人道支援活動も含まれている。しかし、これまでの実績を見ると、人道支援活動は、2003 年のイラク被災民救
援を最後に以降は行われていない。その他の人道危機への支援は、内閣府が所管する国際平和協力業務の物資供与、外務省が国連機関等経由で行う緊急無償資金協力と、 NGO が自発的に展開する活動によって担われている。ここでも支援ニーズの評価と支援の全体計画策定という包括的なアプローチが欠如している。
人道という観点から見れば、自然災害による被災者と、紛争により影響を受けた人々を区別して扱うことは不自然であり、また支援の内容も両者で大きく変わるものではない。
「人道支援」として等しく対応しているケース
実際他の援助機関の多くは両者を区別せず、がほとんどである。シリア問題を含め、自然災害よりもむしろ紛争により深刻な影響を受ける人々が増えている現在、20 年続いた体制を見直す必要があるのではないかと思われる。
５．今後の展望
本稿で提起した「被災者の立場に立った支援」については、図らずも東日本大震災により、国内関係者に認識されることになった。過去に経験したことがない長期の避難生活の中では、生命に関わる緊急時の支援だけでは満たされない様々なニーズがあること、また、被災者の人権や尊厳を守るための最低限の基準が必ずしも確保されなかったことなどが認識された。このような経験を元に、日本国内の災害対応に従事する人々と、海外で人道支援を行っている人々の双方に共通の問題意識が生まれ、改善に向けて様々な研究がなされている。
こうした研究の成果が、将来の国内災害のみならず、海外での支援にも活用されるならば、「人間の安全保障」の追求に主導的役割を果たそうとするわが国の国際人道支援の更なる向上につながるものと期待される。
参考文献
・ 国際協力事業団[1983],『模索と行動：カンボジア難民救援医療 1095 日の記録』
・ 本多憲児[1988],『空翔ぶ救急医療－国境を超える人間愛』,毎日新聞社
・ 沖田陽介[2009]、「JDR と PKO:災害は分けることができるのか？」,『年報

公共政策』

第 3 号, 59-74 頁
・ 柳沢香枝[2012],「日本の国際緊急援助 30 年を振り返る」,『外交』,Vol.17,56-63 頁

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