STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

Programme of the 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)
List of Poster presentations can be found at the end of the programme of Oralpresentations
Tuesday, 24 May 2011: Arrivals
DAY 1 - Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Registration: 08:00 – 09:40
Opening
Poster display (all sessions): 08:00 – 09:40
Welcome: 09:40 – 09:45
Session 1

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Basic Concepts in Statistical Seismology
Session 1.1: Oral (invited) presentations, 09:45 – 11:00
Chair: I. Main, D. Schorlemmer

09:45-10:15
J.H. Dieterich
J. Gilchrist, H. Colella,
K. Richards-Dinger
10:15-10:45
B. E. Shaw
10:45-11:00
R. F. Zúñiga,A. Figueroa-Soto,
M. Ortuño

Space-time characteristics of earthquakes and slow slip eventsin fault system simulations
Surface Slip Gradients of Large Earthquakes
Probabilistic estimation of average recurrence time ofdamaging events at a crustal faulting regime site with low
frequency of large events and lack of recorded seismicity
Coffee Break: 11:00 – 11:30, Poster visits/discussion
Session 1.2: Oral (invited) presentations, 11:30 – 13:15
Chair: I. Main, D. Schorlemmer

11:30-12:00
D. D. Jackson,
J. Zechar,
D. Schorlemmer
12:00-12:30
A. Kijko
12:30-12:45
M. Holschneider,G. Zöller, S. Hainzl
12:45-13:00
G. Zöller,
M. Holschneider
S. Hainzl
13:00-13:15
W. Klein

Estimating and testing maximum magnitude
How Big Can a Black Swan Be? Statistical Estimation of theUpper Bound of Disaster
Estimation of the Maximum Possible Magnitude in theFramework of a Doubly-Truncated Gutenberg-Richter Model
Bayesian estimation of the maximum expected magnitude ina finite time
A New Approach to Gutenberg-Richter Scaling

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

Session 1.3: Poster visits/discussion during the morningand afternoon coffee breaks
Discussion on Session 1, 13:15 – 13:30
Chair: I. Main, D. Schorlemmer
DAY 1 - Wednesday, 25 May 2011

A Better Understanding of Earthquake Physics
via Earthquake Statistics –Session 2

Lessons from the Tohoku 2011 Big Earthquake
Session 2.1: Oral (invited) presentations, 13:30 – 14:30
Chair: J. Dietrich, J. Zhuang

13:30-14:00
I. G. Main, A. Bell,
M. Naylor, M. Heap,
Ph. Meredith

Scaling properties of dynamic failure and failure forecasting:from the lab to volcanoes and earthquakes

14:00-14:30
E. H. Field

Development of UCERF3 Implies that Spatiotemporal
Clustering Constitutes the Strongest Evidence for Elastic
Rebound?
Lunch: 14:30 – 15.30
Session 2.2: Oral (invited) presentations, 15:30 – 16:45
Chair: J. Dietrich, J. Zhuang

15:30-15:45
A. Llenos, P. Segall,
J. J. McGuire15:45-16:00
D. Andrews, M. Barall
16:00-16:15
J.Woessner, S.Wiemer
16:15-16:30
S. Zhou, D. Kai
16:30-16:45
C. E. Bachmann,
S. Wiemer,
B. P. Goertz-Allmann,
J. Woessner, B. MenaUsing Earthquake Rate Changes to Monitor Aseismic Slipand Dike Intrusions
Specifying Initial Stress for Dynamic Heterogeneous
Earthquake Source Models
The post-seismic heterogeneous stress field – spatial extent
and duration
Discussion on ‘Did the Zipingpu Reservoir trigger the 2008
Wenchuan earthquake?
Why geothermal energy research needs statistical seismology

Coffee Break: 16:45 – 17:15, Poster visits/discussion
Session 2.3: Oral (invited) presentations on the Tohoku
2011 Big Earthquake, 17:15 – 19:15
Chair: J. Dietrich, J. Zhuang
17:15-17:45
S. Wiemer, B. Enescu
J. Woessner

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake as a test case for statisticalseismology

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

17:45-18:15
Y. Ogata
18:15-18:30
G. A. Papadopoulos,
G. Minadakis,
B. Di Fiore

Anomalous seismic activities before and after the M9Tohoku-oki Earthquake
Was the big 2011Tohoku earthquake preceded by a foreshock
activity?

18:30-18:45
T. Iwata

The estimation of a slip distribution of the 2011 off thePacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw=9.0) based on thespatial distribution of its aftershocks and rate- and state
friction law

18:45-19:15
H. Castaňos,C. Lomnitz

The Boolean Matrix: Assessing the Fukushima Disaster
Session 2.4: Poster visits/discussion during the morningand afternoon coffee breaks
Discussion on Session 2, 19:15 – 19:30
Chair: J. Dietrich, J. Zhuang

Social Programme

21:00 Workshop Dinner in local restaurant

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

DAY 2 - Thursday, 26 May 2011

Session 3Statistics of Aftershocks and Other
Earthquake Sequences
Session 3.1: Oral (invited) presentations, 08:30 – 10:45
Chair: Y. Ogata, S. Wiemer

08:30-09:00
S. Steacy,
A. Christophersen,
M. Gerstenberger,
S. Hainzl
09:00-09:15
C. Bach, S. Hainzl
09:15-09:30
J. Gilchrist,
J. H. Dieterich,K. B. Richards-Dinger
09:30-09:45
M. Naylor,
J. Greenhough, S.
Touati, I. Main, A.Bell
09:45-10:15
J. Zhuang, D. VereJones, Y. Ogata,
W. Marzocchi
10:15-10:45
S. Hainzl, T. Fischer

Developing a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for theestimation of aftershock probabilities
Aftershock modeling combining statistical and physicalmodelsInvestigation of Large Event Clusters and Aftershock
Statistics in Simulated Catalogs

Interpretation of statistical signals in earthquake data

Foreshock phenomena and the Båth law implied by generic
earthquake clustering
Insights in fluid-driven earthquake generation from analysisof repeating swarm activity
Session 3.2: Poster visits/discussion during the morningand afternoon coffee breaks
Discussion on Session 3, 10:45 – 11:00
Chair: D. Jackson, S. WiemerCoffee Break: 11:00 – 11:30, Poster visits/discussion

Session 4

11:30-12:00
Y. Y. Kagan
12:00-12:30
D.L. Turcotte, Y.-T.
Ling, J.R. Holliday,
M.K. Sachs, J.B.
Rundle, C.-C. Chen,
K.F. Tiampo
12:30-13:00
G. A. Papadopoulos,
B. Di Fiore

DAY 2 - Thursday, 26 May 2011
Prospective and Retrospective Testing ofEarthquake Forecasts & Hazard/Risk Assessment
Session 4.1: Oral (invited) presentations, 11:30 – 13:30
Chair: T. Jordan, S. Steacy
Full Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts and their
testing (Leon Knopoff Lecture)
Issues associated with statistical tests of prospective
earthquake forecasts

Foreshocks and short-term hazard evaluation: A Global
Review

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

13:00-13:30
E. Lippiello,
C. Godano,
L. de Arcangelis

Mainshock magnitude inferred from the spatial organizationof foreshocks
Lunch: 13:30 – 15:00
Session 4.2: Oral (invited) presentations, 15:00 –16:40

15:00-15:20
R. Rotondi
15:20-15:40
R. Console, G.Falcone
M. Murru,
E. Papadimitriou,
V. Karakostas,
D. Rhoades, T.Parsons
15:40-16:00
D. Karlis,
K. Orfanogiannaki
16:00-16:20
Th. Tsapanos
16:20-16:40
D. Eberhard, J. Zechar
S. Wiemer

Chair: T. Jordan, S. Steacy
Occurrence probability given by a renewal process: its use inforecasting, retrospective validation, and as support to fault
segmentation
Renewal modeling and co-seismic stress transfer for seismic
hazard assessment in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system

Multivariate Hidden Markov models for earthquake counts
The Markov-Chains as a tool for very large earthquake
occurrence in south America
A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western
Pacific
Session 4.3: Poster visits/discussion during the morningand afternoon coffee breaks
Session 4 Discussion, 16:40 – 17:00
Chair: T. Jordan, S. Steacy
Coffee Break: 17:00 – 18:00, Poster visits/discussion
DAY 2 - Thursday, 26 May 2011

Session 5

Initiatives-Future Activities
18:00- 19:00
Chair: N. Hirata, G.A. Papadopoulos

18:00 – 18:30
J. Zechar,
J. L. Hardebeck,
A. J. Michael,
M. Naylor, S. Steacy,
S. Wiemer, J. Zhuang
18:30 – 19:00
Programming
Committee
Social Programme

CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical
Seismicity Analysis - Status & Outlook - Discussion

Business meeting: Special Issue of “Research inGeophysics”– EOS Publication – StatSei8 - Others
20:00 Dinner in the Conference Center

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

DAY 3 - Friday, 27 May 2011

Session 6Global Earthquake Predictability Research08:30-09:00
T. Jordan
09:00-09:30
N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka
K. Z. Nanjo
09:30-09:40
S. Wiemer
09:40-09:45
G. A. Papadopoulos
09:45-10:15
P. Shebalin,
C. Narteau,
M. Holschneider
10:15-10:45
J. R. Rubinstein,
N. M. Beeler,
K. H. Che,
W. Ellsworth,
B. Kilgore, D.Lockner
H. Savage, N. Uchida
10:45-11:00
D. Schorlemmer,
M. C. Gerstenberger,
N.Hirata, D.D.Jackson
C. Jiang, T. H. Jordan,W. Marzocchi,
K. Z. Nanjo,
G. A. Papadopoulos,
D. A. Rhoades,S. Wiemer, Z. Wu,
J. D. Zechar and theCSEP Working Group
11:00-12:00
PlenarySession 6.1: Oral (invited) presentations, 08:30-12:00
Chair: D. Jackson, K. Tiampo
Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge andGuidelines for Implementation
CSEP Testing Centre and the first results of the earthquake
forecast testing experiment in Japan
CSEP contributions from EU Research Projects
Contributions from other relevant EU Research Projects
From alarm to rate-based earthquake forecast model EAST
(Early Aftershock Statistics)

Time- and Slip-Predictability Cannot be Dependably Used toPredict the Behavior of Repeating Earthquakes andLaboratory Earthquakes

CSEP Overview

CSEP and RELM future activities: open discussion
Workshop closing, Poster removal
Lunch: 12:00 – 13.15

Social Programme

Caldera boat trip including volcano visit, & dinner
onboard: 15.30 – 20.30

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

Poster Programme:
All Posters should be placed on the boards in the morning of the first day of theWorkshop (Wednesday, 25 May 2011) from 08:00 to 09:40 am and to be removed in
the last day (Friday, 27 May 2011) before lunch. Poster visits and discussions arescheduled during the morning and afternoon coffee breaks of 25 and 26 May.
Session 1 Posters
Jackson David

Proposed test for fault segmentation

G. Zöller, S. Hainzl,
A stochastic fault-based earthquake simulator for short-and
G.B. Brietzke, L. Wanglong-term seismicity& M. Holschneider
Correction of noise ratio in spectral analysis method by
A. Hamed and M. R.
Gheitanchi
Forward Deconvolotion
A. Hamed and M. R.
Determination of Rg phase by means of Hilbert –Huang
GheitanchitransformN. Van der Elst andThe hunt for the global triggering cascade
E.E. Brodsky
S.N. Hashemi, L.
Etemadjahromi and N. A geostatistical analysis of seismic energy release in Iran
Nowroozi
V.S. Seleznev, A.F.
Emanov, V.M.
Soloviev, A.S.
Salnikov, V.N. Kashun,
Active seismology using high-power vibration sources
A.V. Liseikin, S.A.
Elagin, А.Е.
Shenmaier, I.E.
Romanenko
T. Tormann, S. Wiemer Artifacts in earthquake catalogs – illustrated by an up-to-dateand E. Hauksson
example of southern California
S. Hiemer, Q. Wang,
Stochastic Earthquake Source Model: Satisfying Accepted
D.D. Jackson, Y.Y.
Kagan, S. Wiemer, J.D. Laws
Zechar and J. Woessner
E. Varini and R.
Global statistical tests for clustered pattern discovery in Italy
RotondiC. Godano, L. De
Arcangelis, M.
How large will be the next earthquake? A dynamical scaling
Bottiglieri and E.
approach to seismic occurrence
Lippiello
E. Korger and V.
The 1999 earthquake swarm at Gakkel Ridge, Arctic Ocean:Schlindwein
A Spatiotemporal Analysis
D. Eberhard and S.
WiemerMapSeis: A Matlab based toolbox for seismicity analysis

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

Q. Wang, H.-T. Wang
and L.L. Tang

Research on characteristics of Multi-parametercomprehensive anomaly based on Earthquake corresponding
relevancy spectrum analysis
Session 2 Posters

K. F. Tiampo, W. Klein
R. Dominguez, N. Cho, The statistics of seismicity rate variations and stress changes
A.Jiménez, J.B. Rundle
S. Gentili
Radiated energy evolution during seismic sequences
T. Goebel, T. Becker,
C. Sammis, G. Dresen
and D. Schorlemmer
B. Orlecka-Sikora
Y. Kagan
I. Votsi, N. Limnios, G.
Tsaklidis and E.
Papadimitriou
A.C. Aiken, Z. Peng,
D. Shelly and D. Hill
K. Leptokaropoulos,
E.E. Papadimitriou, B.
Orlecka–Sikora andV.G. Karakostas
E. Lippiello, M. Pica
Ciamarra, C. Godanoand L. de Arcangelis
A.F. Emanov, A.A.
Emanov, E.V. Leskova
and A.F. Fateyev
A.C. Aiken, Z. Peng
and Ch. Wu
P. Urban and S.
Lasocki
M. Avlonitis & G.A.
PapadopoulosVariations in b-values, Size and Rate of Micro-Seismicity
before Dynamic Slip Instabilities in Laboratory Experiments
Mining induced seismicity changes due to event-event
triggering
Random stress and Omori's law
Non-parametric hidden semi-Markov models for revealing
the actual stress field underlying the earthquake generation
Comprehensive analysis of triggered tremor around theParkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault
Stress interactions among active fault zones of the Aegean
Sea and their impact on seismicity rate changes and time–dependent seismic hazard
Unjamming Dynamics: The Micromechanics of a Seismic
Fault Model
Trigger effects in development of induced seismicity
Dynamic Triggering of Microearthquakes at Three
Geothermal Regions in California
Ψ-Phenomenon in Mining-induced Seismicity
On the role of b-values to earthquake forecasting: bridging
macroscopic
observations
tosourcemechanicalconsiderations
Session 3 Posters

R. Shcherbakov, P.
Bhattacharya, K.
Tiampo and L.
Mansinha
A. Adamaki, E.E.
Papadimitriou, G.M.
Tsaklidis and V. G.
Karakostas

Anomalous Statistics of Aftershock Sequences Generated bySupershear Ruptures
Contribution to the study of aftershock rate changes:
Modeling Poisson point processes

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

S. Touati, M. Naylor
and I. Main
M.-A.Meier, M.J.
Werner, J. Woessnerand S. Wiemer
D.K. Gospodinov
A.F. Emanov, E.V.
Leskova, A.F. Emanovand A.F. Fateyev A.F.

Masking of aftershock triggering patterns in earthquake
catalogues by temporal overlapping of sequences
Earthquake Triggering via Static Stress Transfer: The Roleof Small Aftershocks
Benioff Energy Release (BER) stochastic model for a single
aftershock sequence
Aftershock process of Chu earthquake

Session 4 Posters
Y. Ogata

Prospective foreshock forecasting experiment during the last
17 years

T. Kumazawa and Y.
Ogata

Smoothing for the nonstationarity with ETAS clustering

B. Pace and F. Visini

Insights on earthquake forecasting key-parameters using asimple earthquake simulator

T. Tormann, S. Wiemerand J. Hardebeck
D. De Gaetano,
J. McCloskey andS. Nalbant
Y. Panayotopoulos, N.
Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, S.
Sakai, S. Nakagawa, K.
Kasahara, T.
Aketagawa, H. Kimura
A. Bala, M. Radulian,
B. Grecu, E. Popescu

The value of microseismicity analysis for probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment

A. González

Forecasting the distance to the next earthquake

Ch. Kontoes,
Th. Herekakis,
I. Keramitzoglou,
A. Fokaefs,
G. A. Papadopoulos,
C. Kiranoudis,
C. Karakostas,
V. Lekidis, A. Kappos,
G. Panagopoulos,
D. Aifantopoulou,
S. Paralikidis,
A. M. Deflorio,
D. Iasillo

The EU Project MASSIVE: Mapping Seismic Vulnerability
and Expected Risk of Cities

The systematic study of the stability of forecasts in the rateand state-dependent model.
How Do Waves Attenuate Under Urban Areas? – Towards
real time estimation of maximum amplitude on the Tokyo
Metropolitan Seismic Observation Network (MeSO-net).
Source Effects vs. Site Effects of Vrancea Earthquakes
recorded in Bucharest City, Romania.

STATSEI 7 - 7thInternational Workshop on Statistical Seismology
25 - 27 May 2011, Greece - Thera (Santorini)

Session 6 Posters
D. Schorlemmer,J. D. Zechar,
M. Werner,
M. C. Gerstenberger,
D. A. Rhoades, and theRELM and CSEP
Working Groups
S.Yokoi, H. Tsuruoka,
N. Hirata, D.
Schorlemmer, F.
Eucher, M. Liulis, K.
Z. Nanjo and T.H.
JordanResults from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models
Experiment

Report on prospective evaluation of the 1-day, 3-month and1-year classes earthquake forecasts in Japan

C. Smyth, J. Mori, M.
YamadaEarthquake forecast enrichment scores

D. Schorlemmer

Probabilistic Seismic Network Completeness Studies Around
the World

R. Clements, F.P.
Schoenberg and D.
Schorlemmer
G.A. Papadopoulos, B.
Di Fiore and G.
Minadakis
B. Di Fiore, S. Pilidou,G. Diakogianni andG. A. Papadopoulos
P. Shebalin

Residual Analysis of Space-time Point Processes withApplications to Earthquake Forecast Models in California
Towards CSEP Tests in Greece: Completeness of the Greek
national catalogue
Completeness Analysis of a Catalogue Produced by a Small
Number of Stations: the Case of Cyprus
Rapid Long-Range Activation of Seismicity Prior To The
Largest Earthquakes of Japan and Kuril Islands