Ken	  XS	  Hao	  (郝 憲生)	  Hiroyuki	  Fujiwara	  (藤原広行）	  防災科学技術研究所1	 	

1976

年
7月
28
日
唐山地震

The overlaid bodies beside street even on
third –fourth days during hot summer.
People can not breath on the air polluted. 	

I thought about 70% people dead in
population over 100 million city.	

日中共同研究・唐山地下構造探査	
嶋 悦三（代表者）・工藤一嘉・柳沢馬住・瀬尾和大・纐纈一起・佐間野隆憲・星野務・郝憲生 等	  	  廖振鵬（代表者）・袁一凡・王東強・陳慶彬・王自発 等	  E 論文を米国地震学会論文集BSSAに取りまとめた。	
E 唐山大地震の際の低震度異常の現象に着目し、発破の観測記録を用いた最大振幅の分布と、各地点のスペクトル比の評価を行い、基盤面の形状効果と地盤による増幅効果から成る相乗作用にあることが確認した。	

What we had learnt from the Tangshan EQ ?
Fortunately, it occurred on the 2:28pm, even thatthe fatality reach 87,000 !	

We	  visited	  Wenchuan	  Five	  �me	  to	  inves�gate	  the	  coseismic	  faults	  and	  near-­‐fault	  damage	  situa�on.	  Using	  the	  InSAR,	  ﬁrst	  obtained	  the	  whole	  fault	  rupture	  image	  and	  crustal	  deforma�on.	  	  	While	  researcher	  pay	  a�en�on	  to	  the	  Northeastern,	  but	  M7	  occurred	  at	  the	  SW.	  	  That	  is	  the	  reality.	  	  	  	Hao,	  et	  al.,	  (2009) 	

> 1m  > 1m      XI	X	VIII	  XI	Observe

Hao et al. GRL 2009

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment
240,000 deaths
Program (1999) – Asia

1976 Tangshan M 7.8 	

19,000 deaths 6,400 deat2011 Tohoku M 9.0	
1952	  Pyeongyang,	  M 6.2	Worst-case scenario of Mega-earthquakes recorded	1995 Kobe M 7.3 	

2008 Wenchuan M 8.0 	
2013	  YaAn-­‐Lushan	  M 7.0	
1999 Chi-Chi M 7.6 	

Major disaster EQs	

8	90,000 deaths 200 deaths 2,415 deaths

What	  lessons	  we	  have	  learnt	  from	  the	  Tohuku	  M9	  earthquake.	  	  We	  did	  give	  the	  90%	  prob.	  in	  PSHA	  map,	  but	  	  Under-­‐es�mated	  M.	  	  “The	  borderless	  world	  of	  Science”	  à	  enabling	  knowledge	  and	  data	  exchange	  each	  others.	  
Subduc�on	  zones	  à	  Crossing	  border	  connect	  the	  world	  9	Strong-motion maps considering low-probability earthquakes	

1,000 years		

10,000 years		

100,000 years		

How	  to	  give	  the	  warning	  or	  message	  to	  public,	  	  for	  unexpec�ng	  event,	  or	  low	  probability	  but	  destruc�ve	  events,	  	Major earthquakes on active faults and subduction zone with low-probability,	  10-­‐4	  ~	  10-­‐5	  . 	  	  Regarding the PSHA	  for low probability, at presen it is insufficient to evaluate the uncertainty for
low probability of	  M8-­‐class earthquakes and it is necessary to improve techniques for them.	

10	

PSHMs	  considering	  the	  Tohoku	  type	  earthquake	(a)	  PSHM2011	(b)	  PSHM2011＋TohokuM9	

How to reduce the variation of uncertainty
E GMPE => PGA and PGV (now in PSHA, but, large
variance in values)
E Requirement of a detail 3D velocity structure formodeling of high frequency.
E Fault Segment, geometry, mechanism(Japan) toE PSHA =>reduce the variation.
E Examination of recorded and PSHA predictedseismic intensity.

12	Comparison between the hazard maps and observed strong motions		

76+65+54
3 or less	

seismic intensity	

Seismic	  Intensity	  with	  2%	  probability	  	  of	  exceedance	  in	  50	  year.	

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps	
The shaking maps are evaluated for 490 scenario earthquakes of	almost all of major faults in Japan.	

Selec�on	  of	  a	  speciﬁed	  scenario	  is	  essen�al	  to	  make	  a	  shaking	  map.	  The	  basic	  policy	  of	  the	  selec�on	  of	  a	  scenario	  earthquake	  is	  that	  we	  choose	  the	  most	  probable	  case.	  	  For	  treatment	  of	  uncertain�es,	  we	  assume	  several	  cases	  of	  source	  model	  and	  compare	  the	  results	  of	  them	  to	  show	  devia�on	  of	  strong-­‐mo�on	  evalua�on	  due	  to	  uncertain�es.	  

14	(a)	  PSHM2011	(b)	  PSHM2011＋TohokuM9	JMA	  seismic	  intensity:	  Exceedance	  probability	  of	  	  2%	  within	  50	  years	

1st-­‐order	  velocity	  layered	  model(1)		
Depth distribution of the upper surface of example layers	

Upper surface of the layer No.25(Vs = 2.1km/s)	

Upper surface of the seismic bedrock(Vs > 3.1km/s)	

16	  (Maeda,	  2012)	  Characterized	  source	  model	  for	  the	  Nankai	  trough	  earthquakes	
E Source	  areas	  (	  14	  cases	  x	  3	  )	  u Single-­‐segment	  earthquake	  EEEEENankai	  (ANNKI:	  Mw	  8.5),	  	  Tonankai	  (ATNKI:	  Mw	  8.2),	  	  	  Tokai	  (ATOKI:	  Mw	  8.0),	  	  	  Hyuga-­‐nada	  (AHGND:	  Mw	  8.3),	  	  and	  along	  the	  trough	  (ATRGH:	  Mw	  8.1)	  	  	  3	  cases	  (a,	  b,	  c).	  
––––Mul�-­‐segment	  earthquakes	  2-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	3-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	36	  hours/	  1	  scenario	  60000	  steps	  (120	  Hz)	  Itanium	  1.66GHz×256Core	  Memory	  130	  GB	  u Mul�-­‐segment	  rupture	  simultaneously	  – 2-­‐segment	  rupture	  E Nankai	  +	  Tonankai	  (ANNI1:	  Mw	  8.7)	  E Tonankai	  +	  Tokai	  (ANNI2:	  Mw	  8.4)	  – 3-­‐segment	  rupture	  E Nankai	  +	  Tonankai	  +	  Tokai	  (ANNI3:	  Mw	  8.8)	  4-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	– 4-­‐segment	  rupture	  E 3-­‐segment	  +	  along	  the	  trough	  (ANNI4:	  Mw	  8.9)	  E 3-­‐segment	  +	  Hyuga-­‐nada	  (ANNI5:	  Mw	  8.9)	  – Seismic	  moment	  are	  calculated	  using	  scaling	  model	  17	

Maps	  of	  Peak	  ground	  velocity	  (PGV)	  and	  	  Velocity	  response	  (Sv)	

(Maeda,	  2012)	  	the	  sedimentary	  wedge	  greatly	  contributes	  to	  the	  genera�on	  of	  long-­‐period	  ground	  mo�ons	
Maximum	

Median	Interquar�le	  range	  (IQR)	

Long-­‐period	  ground	  mo�ons	  in	  the	  Kanto	  basin	  are	  rela�vely	  large	  for	  most	  cases.	

Long-­‐period	  ground	  mo�ons	  in	  the	  Osaka	  and	  Nobi	  basins	  are	  greatly	  inﬂuenced	  by	  a	  few	  speciﬁc	  scenarios.	  	  

18	www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/intl/cjk	
Interna�onal	  Coopera�on	  	  	   	  	  	  à	  Trilateral	  coopera�ve	  program	  	  enabling	  knowledge	  data	  exchange	  Approved	  and	  supported	  by	  each	  individual	  coun�es	  	  	  	  	  	  à	  	  	  SHA	  	  	  for	  Next	  Genera�on	  PSHA	  Map	  	  	  	  The 1 st Annual Meeting

The 2 n d Annual Meeting

The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program:

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25-30, 2011, Harbin, China

The First annual meeting of the strategic project was hosted in Harbin, China

from Nov 25-30, 2011. Not only the researchers from China, Korea, and Japangathered, but also the guests from Taiwan, USA, Russia, Italy and Canada wereiit dThihibDTThe 2nd Annual Meeting of the Strategic Cooperative Program:

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, October 29-31, 2012, Jeju, Korea

Second annual meeting of the strategic project was hosted in Jeju Korea Oct29-31, 2012, where in parallel with the East-Asia Earthquake Seminar 2012.

We were so pleased to have special lectures from Professors Hiroo Kanamori,Xiid27

www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/intl/tem	Interna�onal	  Coopera�on	  	  	   	  	  	  à	  with	  TEM	  	  enabling	  knowledge	  data	  exchange	  Taiwan and Japan are located along stretch island arcs where fourPlates of Pacific, Philippines, Eurasia, and North-American havecomplex conjunctions of subducting and overriding each other. Bothcountries have the highest level of seismic activities and suffered thedestructive earthquakes recently. The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Great

Earthquake (Mw7.6) caused 2,415 deaths, 29 missing, and 11,305
severely

wounded,with51,711

buildings

completelydestroyed,The

53,768 buildings severely damaged. The 2011 Great East Japan

Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused 15,861 deaths, 6,107 injured, and 3,018

people missing across twenty prefectures, as well as 129,225

buildings totally collapsed, with a further 254,204 buildings 'halfThe

2nd W o r k s h o pWill be hosted by NIEDin Japan, 2013.

collapsed', and another 691,766 buildings partially damaged.

The first Workshop
The oval tracks were moved 2.7m to S75W and uplifted 2.65m (left) by Chelungpu fault,

buildings were destroyed (right top) in Guangfu Junior high school, and the Shigang dam wasdistorted and raised about 10 m (right bottom) during the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake.

Under the lessons learnt from the destructive earthquakes and theawareness of the unexpected earthquake possibly occur in the future,scientists on both sides have consensus of cooperative researches toshare data, knowledge and information to mitigate the disasters.

The president of Committee of Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM),

Kuo-Fong Ma, and the director of Department of Socio-disaster
research, NIED, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, agreed to hold the first workshop

1st W o r k s h o pHosted by TEM in NCU
Taiwan on June 4-6, 2012.

share Central
information
on Probabilistic
Seismicfrom
HazardAssessment
Audience on the meeting attoNationalUniversityand professionals
Japanat NCREE, Taiwan(PSHA).

PSHA TEM-NIED Cooperative Program
Supported by NIED and TEM
PSHA in East Asia

PSHA CJK Cooperative Program

Inter-Governments
Strategic International Collaborative
Research Program (SICORP) supportedby JST, MOST and NRF

Wenchuan M8 >90,000 fatality

NIED rapid disaster
investigation

PSHA Promoteinternational

Global Earthquake Model Regional Program

Global Earthquake Model21	EThe	  Tohoku	  earthquake	  brought	  to	  light	  much-­‐complicated	  ques�ons	  to	  Japan	  as	  well	  as	  the	  world.	  By	  joining	  GEM..	  
we	  can	  share	  our	  experiences	  and	  lessons	  and	  work	  together	  on	  improved	  understanding	  of	  earthquake	  hazard	  and	  risk	  worldwide.	  

E“for	  GEM	  it	  is	  a	  great	  honor	  and	  pleasure	  to	  have	  a	  representa�ve	  of	  both	  the	  Japanese	  scien�ﬁc	  community	  as	  well	  as	  the	  Japanese	  government	  in	  the	  Governing	  Board	  from	  now	  on”.	

22	

www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/intl	

Interna�onal	  Coopera�on	  à	  	  	  	  with	  GEM	  	  enabling	  knowledge	  data	  exchange	  Nuclear Power Plant
Scientific FrontiersInsurance Industry
Building Code
Important Building

PSHA

Ordinary people
Testing / evaluation

RISK

Vulnerability24	

convergent	

East	  Asia	  Region		Prepara�on	  for	  	  Un-expecting events	
Thank	  you	  for	  your	  a�en�on		E The final year of CJK cooperative program (2010-2013)
E The TEM-NIED cooperative program (2012~ )E Is it possible to setting up a harmonized PSHA map in East
Asia? How can?	

26	6HLVPRWHFWRQLF
HLVPRWHFWRQLF]RQHVLQ&KLQDDQGDGMDFHQWDUHDVPSHA	  ]RQHVLQ&KLQDDQGDGMDFHQWDUHDV
image	  in	  East	  Asia	  Region	 (X.	  Li,	  2012)	  		  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  %	  	  in	  Y	  	  	  Prob/Y	  	  	  	  	  Return	  Y.	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  Ref.	  
Japan	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  2%	  50	  	  	  	  	  0.0004 	  	  	  2,475	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  J-­‐SHIS	  Taiwan	  	  	  	  	  	  	  2%	  50	  	  	  	  0.0004 	  	  	  2,475	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  TEM	  (Unauthorized),	  Chan	  C.H.	  et	  al.(2013)	  China	  SE	  	  	  	  2%	  50	  	  	  	  	  0.0004	  	  	  	  	  	  2,475	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  IGPCEA(Unauthorized),	  CEA	  Working	  Group	  (2012)	  Korea	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  10%	  500	  0.0002	  	  	  	  	  	  	  4,746	   	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  KIGAM 	  	  27	Do	  Not	  distribute	  Please,	  Ken	  XS	  Hao	  ,	  Sendai,	  Japan	  (2013)	  	  		  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  %	  	  in	  Y	  	  	  Prob/Y	  	  	  	  	  Return	  Y.	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  Ref.	  
Japan	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  2%	  50	  	  	  	  	  0.0004 	  	  	  2,475	  	  	  	  	  J-­‐SHIS(2012)	  Taiwan	  	  	  	  	  	  	  2%	  50	  	  	  	  0.0004 	  	  	  2,475	  	  	  	  	  TEM,	  Chan	  C.H.	  et	  a
China	  SE	  	  	  10%	  50	  	  	  	  0.002	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  475	  	  	  	  IGPCEA(UnauthorizeGroup	  (2012)	  Korea	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  10%	  500	  0.0002	  	  	  	  	  	  	  4,746	   	  	  KIGAM(2012)	  Vietnam	  	  	  	  10%	  500	  0.0002	  	  	  	  	  	  	  4,746	   	  	  VAST	  	  	  (2010)	  EPersonal idea:

E

Just set up a common base to discuss the problems and extend to next step.

EIf some of you have interests about this idea, we may first put the digital data (KML, shapefile) together, then, plan to do next step.

EAn umbrella to cover all of programs in East Asia, GEM Regional Program could be a
best choice for all of courtiers and economic regions.

E

Thank for your attention.

EE
E
EEChan	  C.H.	  et	  al.(2013),	  Probabilis�c	  seismic	  hazard	  assessment	  for	  Taiwan:	  Applica�on	  of	  OpenQuake	  China	  Earthquake	  Administra�on	  Working	  Group	  (2012),	  Chief	  editor	  by	  Gao	  Mentan.	  
Jeon	  JS	  (2013),	  Current	  status	  of	  probabilis�c	  seismic	  hazard	  map	  in	  Korea	  PGA	  map	  for	  An�-­‐seismic	  design	  and	  Building	  code	  TCXD-­‐VN	  375	  2006	  of	  Vietnam,	  2003.	  
J-­‐SHIS	  (2012),	  	  J-­‐SHIS	  31