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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment

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The Joint Symposium of
Seismic Hazard Assessment
Abstract Proceedings

Abstract Proceedings
17-19 June 2013

ＮＩＥＤ

17-19 June, 2013
Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan

独立行政法人防災科学技術研究所

Hosted by Organizers of the Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment
Supported by MOST-NRF-JST and TEM-NIEDSushi katsu

トラストシティプラザ

5階

Locality of Trust city conference, Sendai Kokusai Hotel, Restaurant Sushi Katsu

トラストシティプラザ
エントランスよりエレベーターにて５階受付までお上がり下さい。

Ground level of Trust city conference

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Preface
After the lesson learnt from the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake, theseismic hazard assessment issues have been reconsidering in Japan. Many
fundamental researches and improvements have been gradually developing
since then, such as 1) modeling of seismic activity with no oversight to
low-probability earthquakes, 2) preparation of strong-motion evaluationconsidering low-probability earthquakes, 3) development of methodology
for complementary use of PSHM and SESM, and 4) sophistication oftechniques for prediction of strong-motion for mega earthquakes.
The Tohoku earthquake disaster also impacted China, Korea, Taiwan, andthe rest of Asia, as well as the world. To discuss with neighbor professional
colleagues not only domestic but also international, we held this joint
symposium of seismic hazard assessment in Sendai Japan on 17-21 June
2013.
The symposium includes multiply meetings with 33-oral and 19-poster
presentations from:
1. Workshop on the ground motion attenuation models
2. The 3rd annual meeting of China-Japan-Korea cooperative program
3. The 2nd TEM-NIED Workshop
The participants join the symposium not only from these cooperative
programs but also from: UC Berkeley PEER center, IGP CEA, GEM, IGP
VAST, and major universities, institutes in Japan. We encourage active
discussions and comments during the symposium. We also include theresearch activities of the Japan-China-Korea cooperative program and the
NIED-TEM workshop, and the detail can be found in their home pages.
To let participants experience the destructive disasters from the Tohoku
earthquake and tsunami, we arrange the two-days field trip along the east
Pacific coast areas. Through this symposium, the more extensive cooperation
for advanced seismic hazard assessments could be carried out in East Asia,
Asia, as well as in the world.

Hiroyuki Fujiwara (Chair)
Ken XS Hao (Secretary)
The Organizers of the Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Invited Speakers and Panelists
Kojiro Irikura
Yousef Bozorgnia
Saburoh Midorikawa
Mentan Gao
Marco Pagani
My Thanh Tran Thi
Nguyen Hong Phuong(Aichi Institute of Technology, Japan)(UC Berkerly, PEER center, USA)
(Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan)(Institute of Geophysics, CEA, China)(GEM Foundation, Italy)(Institute of Geophysics (IGP), VAST,
Vietnam)(Institute of Geophysics (IGP), VAST,
Vietnam)

Organizers
Hiroyuki Fujiwara
Ken XS Hao
Xianxin Tao
Myung-Soon JUN
Kuo-Fong Ma
Kazuki Koketsu
Hongjun Si(NIED, Japan)(Chair)(NIED, Japan)(Coordinator)(Harbin Institute of Technology, China)(Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral
Resources)(NCU, Taiwan)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

Local Organizing Committee
Ken XS Hao
Shinichi Kawai(NIED, Japan)(Secretary)(NIED, Japan)

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Contents

Program on 17 June 2013.......................................................................ii
Program on 18 June 2013 ......................................................................iii
Program on 19 June 2013.......................................................................iv
Program poster session ..........................................................................v
Abstract ..................................................................................................1-53

Appendix 1:
Homepage of China-Japan-Korea cooperative research projects
on Seismic Hazard Assessment for the next generation map...............55
First annual meeting in Harbin, China on Nov 25-30, 2011.................56-59
Second annual meeting in Jeju Korea on Oct 29-31, 2012....................60-62
Homepage of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment issues
in the island arcs of Japan and Taiwan .................................................63First workshop of the TEM-NIED in Taoyuan,
Taiwan on June 4-6, 2012 .....................................................................64-66
Appendix 2:
Field trip along tsunami disaster areas .................................................67-79iProgram on 17 June 2013
Registration 09:00-10:00
AM
NHK-MT3D
documentary

10:05-10:25

Yoshimitsu Okada

10:25-10:30

Page #

Chair : Ken XS Hao
The Tohoku earthquake disaster from 3-D technology(16Min with English narration) 「３Ｄ東日本大震災 津
波の傷跡」
Welcome speaking

CJK-Program: H.
Fujiwara, X. Tao and 10:30-11:15
M.S. Jun

Summary of PSHA activities in Japan, China, and Korea

TEM Representatvie:
11:15-11:30
K-F. MA

Summary of PSHA activities in TEM

JNGA Representative
11:30-11:45
K. Koketsu

Summary of JNGA activities

Special Lecture:
Kojiro Irikura

11:45-12:30

1A- 1

Lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake for
reducing earthquake disasters

Lunch & Poster session
PM

Chair : Kazuki Koketsu
13:30-14:15

1B- 1

Recent advances in development of earthquake groundmotion prediction equations

Saburoh Midorikawa 14:15-15:00

1B- 2Compilation and preliminary analysis of strong motion
records of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

Yousef Bozorgnia

Coffee break & Poster session
Chair : Hongjun Si
Kazuki Koketsu
Nobuyuki Morikawa
Tao Zhengru

15:15-15:40

1B- 3

Proposal of median distances for ground motion
prediction equations

A new attenuation relation for Japan applicable up to
Mw9
Seismology based ground motion attenuation
16:05-16:30 1B- 5 relationship for the demonstration region of China in the
joint project
Coffee break & Poster session
15:40-16:05

1B- 4

Toshimi Satoh

16:45-17:10

1B- 6

Po-Shen Lin

17:10-17:35

1B- 7

Hongjun Si

17:35-18:00

1B- 8

Kazuki Koketsu

18:00-18:10

Chair : Hiroe Miyake
Simulation and prediction of long-period ground motions
for subduction-zone mega-earthquakes in Japan using
empirical relations
Selection and weighting of ground motion prediction
equations for seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan
Evaluation equation of amplification factors for spectral
acceleration
Closing remarks

Reception & Poster session
Tohoku disaster by aerial shoot in 3-D technology
NHK-MT3D documentary(12Min) (Room 4)「３Ｄ東日本大震災 空撮」

ii

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Program on 18 June 2013
AM

Page #

Chair : Hiroyuki Fujiwara
Reconsiderations for seismic hazard assessment of Japan after theGreat Tohoku earthquake

Hiroyuki Fujiwara

9:00-9:30

2A- 1

Tao Xiaxin

9:30-10:00

2A- 2 What we learned from each other during this two and half years

Myung-Soon JUN

10:00-10:30

2A- 3 Improving input data for the Seismic Hazard Assessment inKorea

Coffee break & Poster session
Chair : Xiaojun Li
Toshihiko Okumura 11:00-11:30

2A- 4

New seismic activity model of large earthquakes along Nankai troughfor probabilistic seismic hazard maps for JapanLi Xiaojun

11:30-12:00

2A- 5

Consideration of seismic potential sources with higher upper
magnitude and its impacts on seismic zoning map

JS JEON

12:00-12:30

2A- 6 Current Status of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map in Korea

Lunch & Poster session

Chair: Xiaxin TaoPM
Ken XS Hao

14:00-14:30

2B- 1

Recent destructive earthquakes and international collaboration forseismic hazard assessment

Marco Pagani

14:30-15:00

2B- 2

GEM's community tools for probabilistic seismic hazard modellingand calculation

Phuong

15:00-15:30

2B- 3

Simulation of a worst case tsunami scenario from the Manila trench
to Vietnam

Coffee break & Poster session
Chair : JS Jeon
Gao Mentan

16:00-16:30

2B- 4 The new seismic hazard map of China

Toshihiro Yamada

16:30-17:00

2B- 5 Uncertainty in the assessment of seismic hazard

Tang Aiping

17:00-17:30

2B- 6

Logic trees for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low
seismological hazard zone

Dinneriii

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Program on 19 June 2013
AM

Page #

Chair : Myung-Soon Jun

9:00-9:30

3A- 1

Seismicity and seismotectonic province models of the Korean
Peninsula

Hisanori Matuyama 9:30-10:00

3A- 2

Construction of the detail 3D velocity structure models in Japan:
several recent developments

Wen Ruizhi

Separation of source, path and site effects by generalized inversion
3A- 3 technique for the aftershocks of the 2008 Great Wenchuan
Earthquake

T.K Hong

10:00-10:30

Coffee break & Poster session
Chair : Ruey-Juin Rau
Kuo-Liang Wen

11:00-11:30

3A- 4 Empirical site correction for ground motion simulation

Ruey-Juin Rau

11:30-12:00

Present-day kinematics of Neogene extensional structures in the
3A- 5 foreland of southwestern Taiwan from GPS observations during
2002-2012

T.S.Kang

12:00-12:30

3A- 6

A technique for seismic discrimination of explosions fromearthquakes

Lunch & Poster session

PM

Chair : Kuo-Fong Ma

Kuo-Fong Ma

14:00-14:30

3B- 1

Revisit of Taiwan historical damaging earthquakes for seismic hazard
mitigation

Shih-Nan Cheng

14:30-15:00

3B- 2

Literature Search and Seismogram Compilation of Historical
Earthquakes in Taiwan

Yin-Tung Yen

15:00-15:30

3B- 3

Ground Motion Evaluation and Validation of the 1920 Hualian M8.0
Earthquake

Coffee break & Poster session
Chair : Ken XS Hao
J. Bruce H. Shyu

16:00-16:30

3B- 4 Constructing the seismogenic structure source model of Taiwan

Yuan Daoyang

16:30-17:00

3B- 5

Active fault segmentation and their seismic hazard assessment in
Qilianshan, NE Tibet

Shin Aoi

17:00-17:30

3B- 6

Kyoshin (Strong Motion) Monitor --- A new strong-motion
monitoring system ---Dinneriv

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Program Poster Session

Hiroe Miyake

１B -P1

Postdiction of source model and ground motions for the 2011 Tohoku
earthquake

Hiroki Azuma

2A -P2

Utilization of J-SHIS data for general public via J-SHIS Web APIs

Nobusuke Hasegawa

2A -P3

Case study for utilization of seismic hazard information to local
municipal program

Shih-Nan Cheng

2B -P4

Literature Search and Seismogram Compilation of Historical
Earthquakes in Taiwan

Yating Lee

2B -P5Characteristics of strong shaking duration in Taiwan

Shohei Naito

2B -P6

On-site experiment of seismic monitoring network by utilization
inside sensors of mobile terminal

Satoshi Shimizu

2B -P7

Study of an empirical model to evaluate tsunami inundation area

My Thanh Tran

2B -P8

Seismic zoning maps of Vietnam for the Building Code

Takayuki Hayashi

2B -P9

Seismic hazard analysis based on the joint probability density
function of PGA and PGVJyun-Yan Huang

3A -P10Comparison of several common transfer functions for site effectstudy in Taipei basin

Shigeki Senna

3A -P11

Modeling of the subsurface structure from the seismic bedrock to theground surface for a broadband strong motion evaluation

Zhao Jisheng

3A -P12Crustal dynamics simulation based on activitie characteristics of the
fault

Yao Yunsheng

3A -P13

Application of modern geodetic information in future seismic zoning

Yuan-Hsi Lee

3B -P14

Review the 1906 Meishan earthquake and Chiayi transfer zone incentral Taiwan

Asako Iwaki

3B -P15

Long-period ground motion for megathrust earthquakes at the Sagami
Trough: Effects of source variety on ground motion

Takahiro Maeda

3B -P16

Evaluation of long-period ground motion for the anticipated NankaiTrough megathrust earthquakes

Hiromitsu Nakamura

3B -P17

A social experiment of a new strong-motion monitoring system(Kyoshin Monitor) with earthquake early warning

Chi Mingjie

3B -P18

Adjustment of seismic ground motion parameters on site effects inseismic zonation map

Zhou Zhenghua

3B -P19

The Statistical Analysis of Long-period Ground Motion Attenuation
Relationships on Bedrock Sitev

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1A-1 Lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
for reducing earthquake disastersaa

Kojiro Irikura

Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Japan, irikura@geor.or.jp

BackgroundA giant earthquake occurred on 11 March, 2011, off the Pacific coast of Tohoku region in
the north-eastern Japan. It has a moment magnitude (Mw) of 9.0, the largest historicalearthquake in or near Japan. This earthquake is a megathrust event in the subduction zone along
the Japan Trench. Many geophysical data from this earthquake have been obtained by dense
and advanced networks such as GPS stations including 5 offshore-stations, strong motion
stations (K-NET/Kik-net), tide and wave gauges, ocean bottom pressure gauges and so on. Thisdisaster resulted in 15,867 fatalities, 2,904 missing, 6,109 injured, 130,442 house collapsed
including the toll of the aftershocks and triggered earthquakes as of 25 July 2012 (National
Police Agency). More than 90 % of the fatalities were from drowning and the number of injured
people is relatively small, that is severe tsunami damage but moderate ground motions damage.
Period-dependent source model
The main rupture of the Tohoku earthquake is located to the east of the initial break point (theshallower side of the hypocenter), and maximum slip amounts were more than 50 m from theaftershock distribution. The size of the main fault was about 450 km in length and 200 km inwidth; the duration of rupture was more than 150 s. The coseismic slip area inverted fromgeodetic data extends eastward of the hypocenter (Thick broken line in Fig. 1 after Iinuma et al.,2012). The joint inversion result of long-period-strong-motion, teleseismic, geodetic, andtsunami data shows that the initial rupture gradually expanded near the hypocenter (0–40 s) andsubsequently propagated both southwards and northwards (Thin broken line after Yokota et al.,2011). The outer edge of the large slip was delineated based on the seismicity rate, and then it isnarrow and elongate along about 35 km iso-depth of the plate boundary.
The observed strong motions have five wavepackets which correspond to the strong motion
generation areas (SMGAs). The origins of the wavepackts are retrieved from observed
seismograms using the semblance analysis. Locations of the SMGAs are determined based on
the origins of those wavepackets. The short-period source model has five SMGAs (SMGA1,
SMGA2, SMGA3, SMGA4, and SMGA5) as shown by squares (Fig. 2). For comparison theslip distribution from long-period strong motion data (8 – 100 s) (Suzuki et al., 2012) is shown

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Fig. 2. Short-period source model with 5 strong
motion generation areas (SMGAs; meshedrectangles). Foe comparison, slip distribution
inverted from long-period-strong-motion data isshown with colors (Suzuki et al., 2011)..

Fig. 1. Large slip zones from GPS data (Iinuma et al.,2011) and from joint inversion of long-period-strongmotion, teleseismic, GPS, and Tsunami data. Outeredge of the large slip was delineated based on theseismicity rate (Kato and Igarashi, 2012)

in Fig. 2. Then, we find clear period-dependence of the rupture process, short-period generation
on down-dip areas from the hypocenter and large slips on shallower areas from the hypocenter
toward the trench.
Earthquake scenarios of predicting strong ground motions for mega-thrust earthquake.
We developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions for inland crustal earthquakes(Irikura and Miyake, 2010). Based on the source models of mega-thrust earthquakes including
the Tohoku earthquake, we improve a recipe of predicting strong ground motions developed forinland earthquakes to be able to apply it to mega-thrust earthquake.
We need to make different earthquake scenarios depending on period-ranges. For example,
tsunami hazard assessment should be made based on source models estimated from very
long-period motion data such as GPS and Tsunami observations. Long-period ground motionsin the period-range 10 to 100 s are estimated based on long-period source model inverted fromthe long-period-strong-motion data.
Then, we propose a recipe of predicting strong ground motions in the period-range of 0.1 to10 s for subduction earthquakes, improving the recipe of predicting strong ground motions
developed for inland crustal earthquakes (Irikura and Miyake, 2010).

2

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-1 Recent Advances in Development ofEarthquake Ground Motion Prediction EquationsaaYousef Bozorgnia

Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), University of California, Berkeley, California, USA,
yousef@berkeley.edu

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), also known as ground motion models(GMMs) or attenuation relationships, are models to scale a ground-motion intensity measure,IM, (e.g., peak ground acceleration, response spectral ordinates, among others) with a set of
NGA-West2, CB13, PGA, SS, VS30=760, Z2.5=1, Zhyp=71variables

describing

theearthquake

source,wave

propagation path and local site
conditions. GMPEs are very

PGA (g)0.1
MW 7.5
0.01

MW 6.5conveniently

used

in

probabilistic

seismic

hazardanalyses

MW 5.5(PSHA)ateithersite-specific level or for the0.001
MW 4.5

MW 3.5development of national seismic

0.0001
1

10

100

1000

RRUP (km)hazard maps. In the US, suchhazard maps are used for seismic
design of a very wide range ofstructural systems; thus, either directly or indirectly, almost all seismic designs in the US areaffected by GMPEs. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering research Center (PEER), with
headquarters at the University of California, Berkeley, is responsible to coordinate large
multi-disciplinary research projects to develop next generation GMPEs for different tectonic
regimes. There are three “mega” research projects at PEER related to this topic, as follows.
Development of next generation GMPEs for: (a) shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic
regions (NGA-West2), (b) stable continental regions (NGA-East), and (c) subduction regions(NGA-Sub). These mega projects have several research sub-projects to support thedevelopment of the next generation GMPEs. In this presentation, an overview of the on-going
research activities in various NGA mega research projects will be presented, followed byexamples of the findings in very recently completed tasks for NGA-West2.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-2 Compilation and preliminary analysis of strong motion recordsof the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquakeaSaburoh Midorikawa, a Tomohori Atsumi and b Hiroyuki MiuraaTokyo Institute of Technology, Japan, smidorik@enveng.titech.ac.jpb

Hiroshima University, Japan, hmiura@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake of Mw9.0 produced many strong motion records, owing todense strong-motion networks in Japan. About 1,200 K-NET and KiK-net records were madeavailable soon after the earthquake. Then, many records from the other sources are also
published. We collected and compiled the records of more than 2,700. The records include
those with large amplitudes; peak ground accelerations higher than 1 g are observed at 32 sites,
peak ground velocities higher than 70 cm/s are observed at 34 sites with softer site class, and therecords whose velocity response spectrum (h=0.05) has the amplitude higher than 300 cm/s areobserved at 34 sites. Some of the spectra are larger than near-field records observed in the 1995
Kobe and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Using the records, attenuation characteristics of peakhorizontal acceleration and velocity are examined using two distance measures. One is theshortest distance from a slip distribution model derived from geodetic, teleseismic, long-period
strong-motion and tsunami data (Koketsu et al., 2011) and another is the shortest distance fromstrong motion generation areas (SMGA) derived from short-period strong motion data (Irikura
and Kurahashi, 2012). Observed high accelerations over 1 g are seen not uniformly along thefault plane, but at many sites close to SMGAs in the southern part of the fault plane.
Attenuations of peak horizontal acceleration and velocity are plotted using the two distancemeasures. Although the observed data are dispersed with distance for both cases, the data
scatter seems smaller for the distance from SMGAs. The data are compared to the GMPE by Si
and Midorikawa (1999). In cases of the distances from a slip distribution model and from
SMGAs, the data fit to the GMPE for Mw of 8.0 to 8.5 and for Mw of 8.5 to 9.0, respectively.
The results may raise a question on an appropriate distance measure for gigantic earthquakes.

4The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-3

Proposal of median distances for ground motion prediction equationsaa

Kazuki Koketsu, Hongjun Si, and Hiroe Miyake

Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan, koketsu@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Introduction
In comparing the existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) with the observed record of the Tohoku
Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, it is becoming clear that the results of the equations may vary significantly according
to which definition of distances is applied. The problems originating from the definition of distances, such as thehanging wall effect, are also becoming more evident. This study created and defined a new term called “median
distances” and produced a new GMPE by using the same set of data as Si and Midorikawa (1999). With this equation,
we conducted a preliminary study to analyze the advantages which can be derived from this definition.
Definition of Median Distances and Data
Earthquake source faults, in many cases, are configured to be placed at the central part of main strong motion
generation areas (SMGAs). Fault planes tend to lengthen in the along-strike direction and SMGAs tend to diversify
towards the same direction. However, when observed towards the down-dip direction, they can be approximated to belocated near the center. Therefore, we defined the “median fault line” as the straight line extended from the midpoint of
the fault plane in the along-strike direction, and defined “median distance” as the shortest distance from an observation
point to the “median fault line”.
In this study, we used the same set of data as used in Si and Midorikawa (1999) and Si (1999) to calculate peakground accelerations and velocities (PGAs and PGVs), both of which were used for the estimation of GMPEs. As forthe distances, we replaced the fault distances with the median distances, newly calculated from the fault models. Since
this is a preliminary study, we did not use the earthquake data observed after Si and Midorikawa (1999) for theestimation of GMPEs. However, we used observed records of the 2007 Chuetsu-oki and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes to
examine the results of the GMPEs.
Estimation of GMPEs
The relations between median distances and PGAs or PGVs recorded during the 1995 Kobe earthquake indicate nosaturation at close distances. Because this confirms the usefulness of median distance, we used the equation: log A = b log Xmed - k Xmed (A: PGA or PGV，Xmed: median distance) as the first-phase regression model for the GMPE using
median distances. In the first phase, we applied this regression model to each earthquake and calculated the value ofcoefficient b. In order for the ground motion data at close distances to be reflected strongly, we analyzed by giving aweight of 8 for distances less than 25 km, 4 for 25 to 50 km, 2 for 50 to 100 km and 1 for over 100 km.
In the second phase, we analyzed the coefficient b and determined the regression equation with earthquake size,
fault type, and earthquake focal depth. The coefficient b in the first stage regression model of the 1995 Kobe earthquake
shows a strong correlation with moment magnitude (Mw). In addition, the large variation of b remained even at the same
Mw and it became obvious that b is influenced by other variables than Mw. Therefore, as in Si and Midorikawa (1999)，
we performed the second phase of regression analysis by applying the model: b  aM w  hD   d i S i  e   (D :earthquake focal depth, Si: fault type, e: constant term, standard deviation, a, h, di: regression coefficient). Si is adummy variable and is nonzero only when it is any one of the crustal, interplate or intraplate type earthquakes. The
results of the analysis indicate, in the same way as Si and Midorikawa (1999), that PGA and PGV tend to rise in the case of
intraplate earthquakes, or when the focal depth is great. The tendency of such rise is stronger for PGA than PGV.

Discussion
We have conducted a comparative analysis between the GMPEs derived from this study and PGAs observed in the2007 Chuetsu-oki and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes. We used strong motion data obtained by K-NET and KiK-net of NIED,JMA and TEPCO. We have applied 0.1 to 10 Hz band pass filter and determined the values of PGAs at the ground.
Further, we obtained the velocity waveforms by integrating the acceleration waveforms at stations where Vs30 isestimated, and determined the values of PGVs on the basement, with relations to the amplification factors of the ground.
The comparison between the PGAs and GMPEs derived from this study and Si and Midorikawa (1999) not only
indicates that the PGAs observed in the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake and GMPEs derived from this study are
conforming, but also that the hanging wall effect is resolved to some extent compared to the results of the equations of
Si and Midorikawa (1999) using fault distances. On the other hand, as is well known case of the 2011 Tohoku
earthquake, the GMPEs using fault distances are overestimating the observed values. This problem of overestimation
remains within the GMPEs using median distances even though it is weakened slightly. Therefore, this study suggeststhat the overestimation is related to not only geometric issues such as the hanging wall effect but also to the source
characteristics of megathrust earthquakes.
Conclusions
This study newly defined the term “median distance” and developed new GMPEs by using the data set of Si andMidorikawa (1999) and Si (1999). By comparing these GMPEs with the most recent observation data, we found thatgeometric issues such as the hanging wall effect will be resolved to some extent. However, source characteristic issuesof megathrust earthquakes still remains. The equivalent hypocentral distance also has the characteristics of the former
but the calculation is made easier with using the median distances. We will analyze other inland earthquakes than the2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-4 A new attenuation relation for Japan applicable up to Mw9aa

Nobuyuki Morikawa and a Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, morikawa@bosai.go.jp

The attenuation relation based on observed strong-motion records is one of the useful tool
in seismic hazard assessments. However, there is no attenuation relation which can apply
directly mega-earthquakes whose Mw is 8.4 or larger because no strong-motion records had
been obtained. The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Mw=9.0) was the largest event in the worldthat many strong-motion records were obtained by dense strong-motion networks in Japan. So
we have suggested a new attenuation relation for Japan which is directly applicable up to Mw9using the strong-motion records of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Morikawa et al., 2012).
The target ground-motion parameters are instrumental seismic intensity in JMA scale, peakground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5% damped acceleration response spectrum forthe purpose of application to seismic hazard assessments. However, the new attenuation
relation have a tendency that overestimates the amplitude at near source region. Therefore, we
improve it in the following points:(1) Add the strong-motion records by the earthquakes in 2011 to our database.
(2) Introduce the magnitude saturation of the amplitude to our model with a quadratic
magnitude term.
(3) Give a larger weight to the data from near source region in the regression analysis.
(4) Distinguish the interplate and the intraplate earthquakes for subduction earthquakes in
the regression analysis.
We confirm that the predicted ground motion amplitudes near the source region becomes
small according to the above point (3) compared with the last result.
However, the uncertainty of the prediction at near source region for large earthquakes(distance<30km, Mw>7) still remains in our new model. The examinations using overseas
records may be required.
References
Morikawa N., H. Fujiwara and S. Midorikawa (2012), A new ground motion prediction equation applicable up to
Mw9 based on data from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, proceedings of the 15th World Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, paper No. 3988

6

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-5 Seismology based ground motion attenuation relationshipfor the demonstration region of China in the joint projecta

Zhengru Tao, b Xiaxin Tao, c Wenqian Li and d Anping Cuia

Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, China, taozr@foxmail.combHarbin Institute of Technology, China, taoxiaxin@yahoo.com.cncInstitute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, China, 417859214@qq.com

dInstitute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, China, 495222148@qq.com

A seismology based approach, to build the strong ground motion attenuation relationship forregion without enough strong ground motion records, is developed with validation from motion
data of Japan. Lanzhou area in China is selected as the demonstration area in this project. 1175
records of 34 earthquakes with magnitude 3.5 to 4.5 from the China Digital Seismography
Network (CDSN), are adopted to inverse the regional parameters in the relation. The envelopsof Fourier amplitude spectra of those records are taken to integrate objective function of theinversion of five regional source and crustal medium parameters by micro-genetic algorithm,
including regional stress drop, the parameters of quality factor and of the geometrical spreading
function. Fourier amplitude spectrum for any given magnitude M and distance D pair then canbe calculated with the seismology based formular for a point source with all of these parameters.
Acceleration time history can be then simulated from the amplitude spectrum combining with arandom phase spectrum. PGAs can be obtained from the time histories for a series of M and D
pairs, and they form the attenuation relationship of the region. The results are compared withthe limited strong ground motion records, from China Strong Motion Networks Center, and also
some empirical attenuation relationships in the region.
Seismic zoning map of the region is compiled with the same regional potential source areadelineation and seismicity parameters of the national map and compared with the Lanzhou partof the map. There are three requirements in SHA on attenuation, to get PGA from M and D, get
M from PGA and D, and D from PGA and M. To make the calculation easy, the attenuation
relationship is finally given by a spreadsheet. The programming function of the spreadsheet
satisfies the requirements very well by mean of some simple interpolations.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-6 Simulation and prediction of long-period ground motions for
subduction-zone mega-earthquakes in Japan using empirical relationsaToshimi Satoh, b Izuru Okawa, c Toshiaki Sato, d Masanobu Tohdo, and e Takao NishikawaaOhsaki Research Institute, Japan, toshimi.satoh@shimz.co.jpb

Building Research Institute, Japan, okawa@kenken.go.jpcShimizu Corporation, Japan, toshiaki.sato@shimz.co.jpdOhsaki Research Institute, Japan, tohdo@ohsaki.co.jp

eTokyo Metropolitan University, Japan, tanishi@river.dti.ne.jp

During the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with Mw9.0, the high-rise buildings in large cities
shook in large amplitude and some disorders of non-structural members were reported. For
long-feared subduction-zone mega-earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, large long-period
ground motions with long duration will attack big cities in the Osaka, Nobi, and Kanto basins
where many high-rise buildings were constructed.
Therefore we developed empirical relations for acceleration response spectra and averageand variance of group delay time of ground motions in the period range of 0.1 to 10 seconds
using many strong motion records of subduction-zone earthquakes in Japan1). Waveforms withsite-specific characteristics can be generated using the developed empirical relations.
In this study we revise the empirical relations and simulate the long-period ground motions
for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using the three-segment source model based on estimatedstrong motion generation areas. We also predict long-period ground motions using thesix-segment source model for the hypothetical Nankai Trough mega-earthquake with Mw9.0
based on the source model by Cabinet Office, Government of Japan2). The predictedlong-period ground motions on the engineering bedrock are much larger than the basic design
spectrum for high-rise buildings in Japan and have long duration as shown in Figure 1.
References
Satoh et al.(2010). J. Strcut. Constr. Eng., AIJ, No.649, pp.521-530.(in Japanese with English abstract)
Cabinet Office, Goverment of Japan, http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/nankaitrough_info.html
0.1 to 10 s velocity waveforms
KGIN

AIC004

OSKH02★the first rupture starting point☆the other rupture starting points
km

Fig1. Predicted ground motions for the hypothetical Nankai Trough mega-earthquake with Mw9.08[s]The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-7 Selection and weighting of ground motion prediction equations forseismic hazard analysis in TaiwanaaPo-Shen Lin, Pao-Shan Hsieh, Yin-Tung Yen, Kuo-Shih Shao and Chin-Tung Cheng

Disaster Prevention Techonlogy Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc.,

person@sinotech.org.tw

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are one of the key elements of seismic hazard
analysis. With the increasing of ground-motion databases, the development of GMPE has fast
grown up and the selection of GMPE in seismic hazard analysis has become an issue. Several
methods has been proposed for selecting and ranking GMPE in seismic hazard analysis as
likelihood (LH) and log-likelihood (LLH) methods proposed in Scherbaum et al. (2004, 2009)
and Euclidean distance-based ranking (EDR) method proposed in Kale Ö. and S. Akkar (2013).
In order to select the proper GMPE in developing the seismic hazard map in Taiwan, we firstcompiled a database using strong ground-motion data collected by Taiwan Strong-motion
Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) (Liu et al., 1999). Then, a set of local GMPEs developedwith only Taiwan’s ground-motion data and a set of global GMPEs developed with global
ground-motion data are collected to be the candidate GMPEs for seismic hazard analysis. Using
the method proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2004, 2009) and Kale Ö. and S. Akkar (2013) withthe ground-motion database, the most proper GMPEs for seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan
will be identified and weighting of each GMPE will be assigned.
References
Kale Özkan and Sinan Akkar (2013), A New Procedure for Selecting and Ranking Ground-Motion Prediction
Equations (GMPEs): The Euclidean Distance-Based Ranking (EDR) Method, Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America, Vol. 103, No. 2A, pp. 1069 – 1084.
Liu, K.-S., T.-C. Shin, and Y. B. Tsai (1999), A free-field strong-motion network in Taiwain: TSMIP, Terr. Atmos.
Ocean. Sci. 10, no. 2, 377 – 396.
Scherbaum F, Cotton F, Smit P (2004), On the use of response spectral reference data for the selection and ranking
of ground-motion models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of moderate seismicity: the case of rockmotion. Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6) 1 – 22.
Scherbaum, F., E. Delavaud, and C. Riggelsen (2009), Model selection in seismic hazard analysis: An
information-theoretic perspective. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99 (6), 3234–3247.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-8 Evaluation equation of amplification factors for spectral accelerationaa

Hongjun Si, b Hideaki Tsutsumi and b Changjiang Wu

Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Japan, shj@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jpbJapan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization, Japan

Site effects on response spectra become more complicated than the peak values, such as
PGA, or PGV. This is because of that, the shorter period components tend to be affected byshallower soil structure, while the longer period components by deeper structure. For theevaluation of amplification factors, for shorter periods, parameter Vs30 is well used; however,for longer periods, some studies proposed touse the depth of bedrock (e.g., Masui andMidorikawa, 2006; Day et al., 2008).
In this study, based on the records derived
at the vertical array observation stations of
KiK-net, we directly cestimated theamplification factor as the ratio of the
response spectra for records on groundsurface and incident wave estimated on hardrock with a Vs≧2km/s. For the estimationof incident wave on hard rock, we considered
the effects of soil structure above theunderground seismograph by adjusting thesoil parameters to satisfy the observed
transfer function (cf., Si et al., 2013). Based
Fig. 1. Comparison of the prediction and observationon the database of amplification factors andof response spectra for the 1994 Northridge
soil profiles, we found that the amplification
earthquake. Black circles show original observation;
factors strongly correlated with the ratio of
red circles show the observation corrected to hard
Vs30 over Vs of Bedrock (Vs30RT) and forrock; red line shows the prediction by Si et al. (2013).
periods between 0.6 s – 5s the depth to
bedrock (H). Based on these observations,
we proposed an evaluation equation of amplification factor considering both Vs30RT and H.
For the confirmation of the validity, we applied the evaluation equation derived in this study
and the GMPE defined on hard rock proposed by Si et al. (2013) to the records derived during
the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Firstly, the records are corrected to hard rock based on theevaluation equation in this study, then the corrected observation are compare with theprediction by Si et al. (2013). Fig. 1 shows the results, and confirmed that the prediction andobservation is well matched. This implies that the results in these studies are valid.
Acknowledgement
This study is supported by the Research Found from an incorporated administrative agency, Japan Nuclear Energy
Safety Organization. The data of strong motion and soil structure are provided by KiK-net and NGA database.

References
Masui and Midorikawa (2006), Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A, Vol.62, No.2, pp.225-232.
Day et al. (2008), Earthquake spectra, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 257-277.
Si et al. (2013), Proceedings of 10th CUEE, March 1-2, 2013, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.

10The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-1 Reconsiderations for seismic hazard assessment of Japanafter the Great Tohoku earthquake
Hiroyuki Fujiwara
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, fujiwara@bosai.go.jp

We have been carrying out the seismic hazard assessment for Japan after the 1995 Kobe earthquake andhave made the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan under guidance of the Headquarters for Earthquake
Research Promotion of Japan,. The National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan are prepared to estimate strong
motions caused by earthquakes that could occur in Japan in the future and show the estimated results on themaps. The hazard maps consist of two kinds of maps. One is a probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSHM) thatshows the relation between seismic intensity value and its probability of exceedance within a certain time
period. The other one is a scenario earthquake shaking map (SESM). In order to promote the use of the
National Seismic Hazard Maps, we have developed an open web system to provide information interactively,
and named this system as Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station, J-SHIS.
The Great Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) of March 11, 2011, was the largest event in the history of Japan.
This mega-thrust earthquake was not considered in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. Based on
the lessons learned from this earthquake disaster, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for seismic
hazard assessment and make some proposals to improve seismic hazard assessment.
(1) Modeling of seismic activity with no oversight to low-probability earthquakes.
It is necessary for earthquakes occurring both in subduction zones and in active faults to model seismic
activity that can be considered to large events in long return period.
(2) Preparation of strong-motion evaluation considering low-probability earthquakes.
In addition to emphasize the urgency of the earthquake occurrence by showing the seismic hazard
probability, we should prepare the maps that show the strong-motion level based on the averaged long-term
seismic hazard assessment.
(3) Development of methodology for complementary use of PSHM and SESM.
It is necessary for purposes of earthquake preparedness to establish a methodology that appropriate
scenario earthquakes can be selected from probabilistic seismic activity models.
(4) Sophistication of techniques for prediction of strong-motion for mega earthquakes.
In order to perform seismic hazard assessment considering the low-probability events, it is necessary to
predict strong-motion for mega earthquakes. The “Recipe” for prediction of strong-motion, which iscurrently being used in Japan, only covers the subduction zone earthquakes up to about M8 and earthquakes
on active fault up to about 80km in length. The sophistication of techniques that can be applied to theprediction of strong-motion for super large earthquakes is required.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-2 What we learned from each other during this two and half yearsaa

Tao Xiaxin

Harbin Institute of Technology, China, taoxiaxin@yahoo.com.cn

The strategic China-Japan-Korea cooperative project of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the
Next Generation Map has been carried out for two and half years and will be finished by the endof this year. The project benefits us, the three teams by exchanges in three annual meetings andmore visits. We are now more clearly know the state-of-the-art of probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment (PSHA) in the three countries. I may mention that the basic data andmethodologies are similar in principle, mean while there are very rich data in Japan and not somuch in Korea. We are all on the way to a confident SHA, we know something on occurrence ofstrong earthquake, but can not really predict it in a scientific way even for long-term, that fact isthe reason of a P in PSHA. In nature P must came from statistical data, so the most principal
contradiction in PSHA comes from the detail hazard mapped for construction and development
planning and quite large region for enough data. Even in subduction zone eastern Japan with somany earthquake data, hazard of a shock 9.0 is still not reliable if statistics worked just on thedata in small areas such as off Miyagi and off southern Sariku. Chinese scientists presented a
two or three rank procedure to estimate seismicity parameters in a large enough region and thenassign occurrence rates to individual potential source area by weighting factors. Then the
problem turns on the weighting, it is quite difficult to evaluate the factor values from acomprehensive understand of the occurrence from seismic, tectonic and crust dynamic
evidences, and a logical approach to add up contributions of them is still required further study.
The idea to take into the deterministic synthesis for the near field of strong earthquake in SHA
is talked over during the project, and Chinese team present a procedure. The ground motion
attenuation in region with enough observation data, such as many regions in China, is benefited
to build seismology based relationships with validation from data of Japan. The update of the
map in China about in each 10 years or more, and even longer in Korea, may be shorted fromthe fact that the Japanese map updated quite often. The more important is to open the technicalreport to the public and a freely accessible website like those in Japan.
There are may issues are discussed in this time period, such as recognition of potential
source area with high upper bound magnitude from geodynamical understanding, the way toemphasize the geophysical and geodetic data with the crust deep structure together, correctionof uncertainty and so on. They can be looked at study with further exchange.

12The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-3 Improving input data for the Seismic Hazard Assessment in Korea
Myung-Soon Jun
Korea Institute of Gescience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 30 Gajung-dong, Yusung-gu, Daejeon, Korea
305-350

Earthquakes in and around the Korean Peninsula are rather small in size, with infrequent
occurrence and show diffuse geographic distribution. In Korea, instrumental earthquake recording has
started since 1905 however, Korea has 2000-year long history with more than 2000 documents which
include not only earthquake information but also many other natural phenomena. Recently we havelisted 389 historical earthquakes which have MMI between V and IX.
Instrumental earthquake observation had started since 1905 and continued until 1943 by the
Weather Bureau of Tyoson by Japanese. These observation was reviewed by Jun and Jeon(2001) andtheir source parameter was determined. Since 1944 no seismic observation was conducted until 1963
when the WWSSN SEO station was installed by USGS. After the destructive Hongsung earthquake (M5.0) occurred at the western central Korean Peninsula in 1978, KMA has started to expand the seismic
network throughout the south Korea. The number of seismic station in 1990 was about 40 hosted by
KMA and KIGAM, and the number of seismic station in Korea is approaching about 200 in the Korean
Peninsula these days.
We have tried to read the WWSSN SEO, MAT and SHI station data to fill the seismic data gap in
Korean Peninsula covering the time period between 1963 and 1979.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-4 New seismic activity model of large earthquakes along Nankai troughfor probabilistic seismic hazard maps for JapanaToshihiko Okumura and b Hiroyuki FujiwaraaInstitute of Technology, Shimizu Corporation, Japan, oku@shimz.co.jpbNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, fujiwara@bosai.go.jp

The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan (HERP) developed andpublished the national seismic hazard maps for Japan (HERP, 2005) with scientific andtechnical support by National Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED).
HERP and NIED continue updating the maps every year. Before the occurrence of Tohoku
earthquake (Mw 9.0) of 2011, the seismic activity model of large earthquakes employed in theseismic hazard maps was based on ‘the long-term evaluation for seismic activities’ by HERP, inwhich such mega-earthquakes were not taken into consideration. This resulted in theunderestimation of seismic hazard in the eastern part of Japan. Based on the lessons learned
from the Tohoku earthquake, the probabilistic occurrence model of large earthquakes at
subduction zones is being revised.
Along the Nankai Trough, large earthquakes with magnitude 8 or greater have occurred
repeatedly at intervals of about 100 to 150 years. It is known that there are two types ofactivities: one is Nankai zone and Tonankai zone slip in short succession generating two M8class earthquakes; the other is the two zones slip simultaneously resulting in larger earthquakes.
The previous occurrence model of Nankai Trough large earthquakes is based on thelong-term evaluation of seismic activity, in which Nankai zone and Tonankai zone are
evaluated independently, hence it allows either one of Nankai or Tonankai earthquake to occur
within a future period of interest. On the other hand, in the new model, it is assumed that twozones slip either simultaneously or separately in short succession, and the possibility that only
one zone slips is eliminated. In addition, considering the occurrence of Tohoku earthquake ofmagnitude 9.0, earthquakes with magnitude up to 9.1 are allowed to occur when Nankai,
Tonankai and their adjacent areas slip simultaneously, compared with magnitude 8.5 in the oldmodel. The seismic hazard maps based on the new model will be presented and compared withthe old ones.
References
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2005), Report: ‘National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan(2005)’, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/06mar_yosoku-e/index-e.htm

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-5 Consideration of seismic potential sources with higher upper magnitude
and its impacts on seismic zoning mapaa

Xiao Jun Li

Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China, beerli@vip.sina.com

The several generation seismic zonation map of China (with intensity or ground motion
parameter) were compiled based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method. The
basic ideas and methods of compiling the seismic ground motion parameter zonation map ofChina called as the fourth and fifth generation maps (HU Yu-xian, et al, 2001)) are discussed
in this paper, especial for the seismic potential sources with higher upper magnitude. And a
new method is suggested to consider the impacts of the seismic potential sources with higher
upper magnitude on the seismic maps for lower exceeding probabilities. In the new method,
the seismic potential sources with higher upper magnitude Mu (such as 7.5, 8.0, 8.5 or 9.0 )are divided into two parts, seismic potential sources with assumed upper magnitude Mul (suchas 7.0) and with lower magnitude Mul separately. The seismic potential source with upper
magnitude Mul takes the same shape and seismic activity parameters as original area source,
and the other is a large active fault related line source with lower magnitude Mul and the same
seismic activity parametersfrom Mul to Mu.
Fig.1 shows the seismic
potential source model used inexisting method and relative
Fig. 1. The seismic potential source model used in existing method
and relative PGA zoning map under 1% exceeding probability in 50
years.

peakgroundacceleration(PGA) zoning map under 1%
exceeding probability in 50
years

in

Beijingandsurrounding areas, and Fig.2
is

the

PGA

map

corresponding to the new
Fig. 2. The new seismic potential source model in this study andrelative PGA zoning map under 1% exceeding probability in 50
years.

method.

There

is

much

difference between two maps,

but the difference becomes smaller with the increase of the exceeding probability.
References
HU Yu-xian, et al ( 2001). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB 18306-2001). Beijing:Standards Press of China (in Chinese)

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-6

Current Status of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map in Korea

Jeong Soo JEON
Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources
jsjeon@kigam.re.kr

While damaging earthquakes are fortunately rare in Korea when compared to seismicallymore active regions, damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past and will continue to do
so in near future.
After Kobe earthquake occurred, Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea made the first
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map under the support of Ministry of Construction andTransportation in 1997. We had published the result of new probabilistic seismic hazard maps
for Korea under the support of National Emergency Management Agency in 2012. Thishazard maps will replace the 1997 hazard maps. Also it is the first to consider the effect ofactive faults in the Yangsan and Ulsan faults area and site amplification in the 5 big cities inSouth Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu, and Kwangju.
Based on a newly revised historical and instrumental moment-magnitude earthquake catalog
of Korea peninsula and adjacent regions, covering the period AD 2 - 2011, sets of recurrence
parameters (a- and b-value, Mmax ) are estimated. The final result consists of hazard maps
(Peak Ground Acceleration(%g)) for return periods of 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2400, and
4,800 years and will be available on the internet at near future. The highest hazard are foundin the south-eastern part of South Korea and the south-western part of North Korea, withmaximum peak ground acceleration 24 %g and 25 %g for a return period of 4,800 years.

16The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-1 Recent destructive earthquakes and international collaboration
for seismic hazard assessmentaa

Ken XS Hao and a Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, hao@bosai.go.jp

Recent destructive earthquakes in east Asia, such as 1976 Tangshan, 1995 Kobei, 1999 Jiji,
2008 Wenchuan, 2010 Yushu, 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, claimed one third of million ofpeople’s lives. People learned from lessons but forgotten after generations even one sculpted onstones.

Probabilistic

Seismic

Hazard Assessment (SHA) in
long-term is considered as ascientific

way

to

defineearthquake zones and to guideurban plan and construction.
NIED promoted SHA national
mission in Japan over 10 years
andFig. 1. Major earthquakes in East Asian region (by Hao et al 2012).

extendedcountries

since

to

neighborthe

2008

Wenchuan earthquake.
We initiated China-Japan-Korea SHA strategic cooperative program for the next generation
map supported by MOST-JST-NRF in 2010. We also initiated cooperative program with TEM(Taiwan Earthquake Model committee) from 2012, as well many other parties in the world.
Consequently NIED proudly joined GEM (Global Earthquake Model Foundation) since its
SHA’s methodologies and technologies were highly valuated. Our international promotion
activities in East Asian could be automatically becomes one of the GEM Regional Programs.
We have setup a platform of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/en to exchange the SHA informationand share our experiences, lessons and knowledge internationally. Some probabilistic SHA
concepts, seismic risk mitigation issues are constantly needed to promote international throughoutreach and media.
References
Hao K. and H. Fujiwara (2012), Should worst-case scenario of Mega-earthquake be considered in East Asian
region, the lessons learnt from recently destructive earthquakes,
http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/intl/cjk/2nd_annual_meeting.html

17

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 20132B-2 GEM's community tools for probabilistic seismic hazard modellingand calculationaMarco Pagani, b Damiano Monelli, c Graeme Weatherilla

GEM Foundation, Italy, marco.pagani@globalquakemodel.orgb

GEM Model Facility, SED-ETH, Switzelrland, damiano.monelli@globalquakemodel.org

c

GEM Model Facility, GEM Secretariat, Italy, damiano.monelli@globalquakemodel.org

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is approaching the end of its first implementation
phase planned for the end of 2014. During this phase, one of GEM's major goals has been to
create an open source suite of tools for the processing of basic information used in the creationof Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) input models, for the construction of PSHA
input models and for the calculation of hazard.
Version 1.0 of the OpenQuake-engine, GEM's hazard and risk calculation engine, will be
released in the first half of 2013. The OpenQuake-engine is a comprehensive hazard calculation
software incorporating three major calculations workflows: Classical PSHA, Event-based
PSHA and Scenario Hazard. This powerful software has been developed following professional
open-source development standards and has already been successfully applied to hazard
analysis in many different regions of the globe for applications ranging from complex
site-specific PSHA for engineering design, to pan-regional seismic hazard mapping projects.
The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit is a suite of tools to design to assist in the process of PSHA
input model development. These include tools for investigation and harmonisation ofearthquake catalogues, through to the full characterisation of a seismic source model. Such
workflows can include the definition of a source model via smoothed seismicity, or the
calculation of activity rates from geological and even geodetic data. The tool is currently
available as a prototype, which is open to the scientific community for scrutiny, feedback and most of all - enlarged participation.
During this presentation we will illustrate the major properties of these tools and we will
illustrate representative application examples.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-3 Simulation of a Worst Case Tsunami Scenario from the Manila trench
to VietnamaaNguyen Hong Phuong, Vu Ha Phuong, Pham The Truyen

Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, phuong.dongdat@gmail.com

Among the tsunami source zones defined in the East Vietnam sea region, the Manila trench,west of the Philippines is considered as the most dangerous for the Vietnamese coast. The
recent research results show that the maximum expected earthquake magnitude for the Manila
Trench source zone may reach to the value ofMw8.7, and it takes approximately 2 hours for atsunami from this source zone to hit theVietnamese coast at the earliest.
In this study, we create a worst-case scenario of
tsunami earthquake excited by Manila Trench
megathrust and assess the impact to theVietnamese coast. The source parameters aredefined based on the models proposed by
Megawati K. et al (2009). The earthquake
magnitude, Mw, is assumed to be 9.3 generated on
the Manila Trench. The tsunami propagation isnumerically computed by using the COMCOT
Fig. 1. Maximum free-surface elevation alongopen source code. We focus the discussion in

the Central Vietnam coast.

Central Vietnam coastal regions, and carefully
describe the maximum tsunami wave heights

around two coastal cities, Da Nang and Nha Trang. In Central Vietnam coast, the maximum
tsunami wave height of 21 m is observed at the Quang Ngai province coast. The maximum
wave height of 11.8 m recorded at the coast of Da Nang city and of 11.2 m at the coast of Nha
Trang city. It might be concluded that the tsunami hazards from Manila Trench source aredevastating to Vietnamese coast, especially to the Central Vietnam coast.
References
Kusnowidjaja Megawati, Felicia Shaw, Kerry Sieh, Zhenhua Huang, Tso-Ren Wu, Yunung Lin, Soon Keat Tan,
Tso-Chien Pan, 2009. Tsunami hazard from the subduction megathrust of the South China Sea: Part I. Source
characterization and the resulting tsunami. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36, 13–20.
Phuong Hong Nguyen, Que Cong Bui, Xuyen Dinh Nguyen. Investigation of tsunami sources, capable of affecting
the Vietnamese coast. Natural Hazards, 64(1) pp 311-327. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0240-3, October 2012.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B‐4 The New Seismic Hazard Map of ChinaaaMengtan GAO

Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 10081

The new Seismic Hazard Map of China will be issued as a national standard inthis year. It will be used in the land using plan, sitting for construction project,building code as well as in the preparedness of low probability event.

Four

probability levels of ground motion parameter are given in the standard. The
probability levels are exceeding probability 63%, 10%, 2% within 50 years as well as
annual exceeding probability 10-4. These four levels will used for function control,
repairable control, collapse control and emergency preparedness respectively.
The methodology and models for mapping are delivered from a special research
project found by MOST of China. The models for potential source and seismicity are
updated. The tectonic dynamics and GPS data as well as fault slip rates are used forthe delimitation of potential sources. The up limit magnitudes about 25% potential
sources are greater than the model used in the last generation of seismic hazard map.
The completeness of historical catalogue and instrumental catalogue are emphasizedin the seismicity model. The soil amplify factors are also used in this standard.
For the future development of the methodology of seismic hazard mapping in
China, the source and basin effects will be taken into considered. There is also a
project aimed at the active faults survey undergoing in whole country. The database
will be enriched.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-5 Uncertainty in the assessment of seismic hazardaaToshihiro Yamada

OYORMS Corporation, Japan, toshihiro.yamada@oyorms.co.jp

It is common to consider the uncertainty in the process of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment (PSHA), but it is not so common to consider it in the Scenario Seismic Hazard
Assessment (SSHA). However, when you think that every process of seismic hazard
assessment might include some sort of uncertainty, it should be proper to consider theuncertainty even for SSHA.
Probability Density Distribution ofSeismic Intensity

Furthermore, when you think thecase assessing damage or loss using

Mean Seismic Intensity

considering its uncertainty properly,
it is possible that an unexpected
result will be derived because of
non-linearityoffragility

Loss Ratio

the evaluated seismic hazard without
Mean Loss
Vulnerability
Functionorvulnerability of the property. Fig.1.
shows the simple example that themean loss estimation is not coincidewith the average loss estimation

Seismic Intensity
Fig. 1. Conceptual relationship between
Seismic Intensity and Loss Ratio

considering variation of seismic
intensity.
It is considered that the ground motion is affected by “Source Effect”, “Path Effect” and“Site Effect”. In this discussion, we see the range of the uncertainty of those processes using the
JMA seismic intensity data of the Nankai Trough Earthquake assessed by Central Disaster
Prevention Council (2003, M=8.7) and Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2012, M=9.0)
and the JMA seismic intensity data observed by NIED’s K-NET and JMA for the 2011 Tohoku
Earthquake.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-6 Logic trees for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low
seismological hazard zoneaAiping Tang, bXiaxin TaoaSchool of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, China, tangap@hit.edu.cnbSchool of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, China, taoxiaxin@yahoo.com.cn

As a popular tool to estimate the seismic hazard, the logic trees are widely used inprobabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) in the last three decades years for considering the
epistemic uncertainty associated with the seismogenic sources and the ground-motion
prediction models. In this paper, based on a GIS-database including seismo-tectonic andcontinental dynamic background, paleseismic events and earthquake records, a newcomprehensive PSHA model of seismic hazard analysis in low seismological hazard zone withfew seismic events is presented. In this model, the potential seismic zone is firstly delineatedbased on the continental dynamic and tectonic system, and seismic records. Then, seismicparameters by synthesizing paleseismic data and earthquake records are analyzed, three seismic
models are constructed to calculate the seismic hazard, and the logic trees are also set up to
estimate the epistemic uncertainty existing the three models and decide the objectively weightof each model. Thirdly, the attenuation relationship is calculated by utilizing the moderate andsmall earthquake records, and a logic tree
considering the different attenuation models is
also constructed to reduce the uncertainty ofsingle one. Lastly, this comprehensive PSHA
model is tested to estimate the seismic hazard
level in Hunan Province, the results show that
this model

could be applied to

calculateseismic hazard in low seismological hazard
zone and moderate seismic region.
Fig. 1. Peak ground acceleration in Hunan province

References
E. Delavaud,F. Cotton ,C. Beauval, et al(2012), Toward a Ground-Motion Logic Tree for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment in Europe, Journal of Seismology, 16, 3:451-473
J.J. Bommer, F. Scherbaum, H. Bungum, et al(2005), On the Use of Logic Trees for Ground-Motion Prediction Equationsin Seismic-Hazard Analysis,Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 95,2:377–389.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-1 Seismicity and seismotectonic province models of the Korean PeninsulaaaTae-Kyung Hong, Soung Eil Houng, Seong Jun Park

Department of Earth System Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul 120749, South Korea, tkhong@yonsei.ac.kr

Dozens of devastating earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6 occurred in the Korean
Peninsula according to historical literatures although only 5 events with magnitudes greaterthan 5 have been observed instrumentally since 1978. For proper seismic hazard assessment, it
is important to reflect the expected maximum magnitudes of earthquakes that are defined byseismotectonic province. Thus, seismotectonic province model is a crucial requisite for seismic
hazard assessment. It is shown that high seismicity regions are spatially correlated withpaleo-rifting and continental-collision structures. Seismic events associated with reactivation of
paleo-tectonic structures responding to the ambient stress field display characteristic focal
mechanism solutions that are different from usual focal mechanism solutions (i.e., strike-slip)
observed in stable intraplate regions. Several seismotectonic province models have been
proposed for the Korean Peninsula so far. However, those models generally follow thegeological and tectonic zonation, which is different from the seismicity features observed in thepeninsula. We propose seismotectonic province models reflecting the instrumental andhistorical seismicity, tectonic structures, and seismic and geophysical properties. Twoseismotectonic province models are introduced for the Korean Peninsula. One is composed of
17 provinces, and the other is composed of 7 provinces. The Gutenberg-Richter a and b values
and maximum magnitudes of each province are calculated for both instrumental and historicalseismicities. The maximum magnitudes (Mmax) based on the instrumental seismicity are
estimated up to 5.60, while those based on the historical seismicity are determined up to 7.5 in
the Korean Peninsula. We discuss the potential seismic hazards in the Korean Peninsula.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-2

Construction of the detail 3D velocity structure models in Japan:
several recent developmentsaa

Oyo Corporation, matuyama-hisanor@oyonet.oyo.co.jpbb

Hisanori MATSUYAMA

Hiroyuki FUJIWARA

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, fujiwara@bosai.go.jp

In NIED projects of Japan, to simulate seismic strong ground motions, we haveconstructed three-dimensional deep subsurface structure model of all over Japan Islands.
It is based on geological and geophysical exploration data and composed of several
layers with different seismic wave velocities, vertically divided into cubes with about
1km mesh surface. To make the model better, this model is modified by corresponding
H/V spectral ratios calculated by using the model with R/V spectral ratios of observed
seismic waveform data.
Furthermore, we have been gathering many boring data up to over four hundredsthousands and are constructing shallow subsurface structure models of 250m-grid using
these detailed geological data in Kanto and Niigata areas.
These deep or shallow subsurface structure models would be so useful in simulatingstrong ground motions caused by future earthquakes in Japan.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-3 Separation of source, path and site effects by generalized inversion
technique for the aftershocks of the 2008 Great Wenchuan Earthquakea

Yefei REN bRuizhi WEN cHiroaki YAMANAKA dToshihide KASHIMAabInstitute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080cTokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo 226-8502d
Building Research Institute, Japan Tsukuba 305-0802

The generalized inversion of S-wave amplitude spectra from the recordings of the China
National Strong Motion Observation Network System (NSMONS) will be took in this study toestimate simultaneously the site response, source parameters and S-wave attenuation (Q value).
In this regard, several criteria will be set to select the suitable data to make a dataset. Finally,
602 recordings from 96 earthquakes associated with the magnitudes M3.7-M6.5 at 28 stationsin the hypocentral distance range from 30 to 150km. The Husid plot and cumulative Root Mean
Square (RMS) function will be used for determining the S-wave duration. An outcrop station
coded 62WIX will be chosen as a reference site by assuming its site amplification as 2 toremove a trade-off between the site response and source spectrum so that to obtain a uniqueinversion solution.
The reliability of the inversion result will be verified by comparing the inversion results withthe ones both from reference-station and reference-event spectral ratio method. The site
response of 28 stations will be used for fitting a function related to the Vs20 (the average
uppermost-20m shear wave velocity) for 1.0-5.0Hz, 5.0-10.0Hz and 1.0-10.0Hz frequency
bands. The site amplification map around Wenchuan Area will be complied according to the
Krikin interpolation technique at the frequency 1, 2, 5, 10, 15Hz. Then it will be compared withthe site classification map given by our previous study, which was proposed by the surface
geology and geomography, in order to discuss the correlation between them.
As a part of inversion result, the Q value around Wenchuan Area will be fitted as afrequency-dependent function, Q( f ) = Q0·f γ, and compared with the other studies. Eachsource amplitude spectrum will be used for checking which source model, ω-1, or ω-2, or ω-3 issuitable for those earthquakes. The Andrews method and a new proposed method will be used
to determine the source parameters for each earthquake including the seismic moment (M0),corner frequency (f0), stress drop (Δσ) and source radius (r). A regression analysis yielded thevaluable relationship between M0 and f0, logM0 and Ms and between Mw and Ms,
respectively.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-4

Empirical site correction for ground motion simulationa

KL Wen, b JY Huang, c CT Chena

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, wenkl@earth.ncu.edu.twb

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, jyhuang428@gmail.com

cDepartment of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, pokayoke69@gmail.com

The site response is not easy to consider for ground motion estimation especially inthe basin area. Where 1D, 2D, or 3D basin responses need to be considered in thesimulation. In this study, we try to use empirical site correction term for the groundmotion simulation in the Taipei basin. The method of the stochastic point-source
modeling (SMSIM, Boore 2009) is used to simulate the rock site ground motion in the
Taipei basin area. Empirical site corrections are calculated by the spectral ratios
between observed earthquake record and stochastic point-source modeled forbasement rock. The empirical site correction model is then used to simulate target
earthquake ground motions on the soft soil sites within the Taipei basin. Residual
between the observed and simulated ground motions are discussed in the time andfrequency domains, and also compared with that from the ground motion prediction
equation method (Jean and Loh 2001; Jean et al 2006) which engineer application
usually used.
References
Boore D.M. (2009), Comparing stochastic point-source and finite-source ground-motion simulations:
SMSIM and EXSIM, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 99, 3202-3216.
Jean W.Y. and C.H. Loh (2001), A study on the classification of site effects and its application to theseismic hazard and microzonation, 10th International Conference on Soil Dynamics and Earthquake
Engineering, SDEE’2001, Volume of Extended Abstracts, 82.
Jean W.Y., Y.W. Chang, K.L. Wen and C.H. Loh (2006), Early estimation of seismic hazard for strong
earthquakes in Taiwan, Natural Hazards, 37, 39-53.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-5 Present-day kinematics of Neogene extensional structures in theforeland of southwestern Taiwan from GPS observations during 2002-2012aabc

Ruey-Juin Rau, a Chia-Hsun Yang, a Sz-Man Ko, b Kuo-En Ching and c Chien-Liang Chen

Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, raurj@mail.ncku.edu.tw
Department of Geomatics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
Central Geological Survey, MOEA, Taiwan

Apart from the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, the two most devastating earthquakes thatever occurred in Taiwan in the 20th century were the 1906 M 7.1 Meishan earthquake and the1935 M 7.1 Hsinchu-Taichung earthquake with the numbers of deaths of 1258 and 3276,
respectively. Unlike the thrust-faulting Chi-Chi event, the other two earthquakes are strike-slip
and are presumably resulted from the reactivations of the pre-existing Neogene extensional
structures in the foreland of western Taiwan. To assess the deformation and seismic hazards in
the Neogene extensional structures, we use GPS data to characterize the mode of deformation
in southwestern Taiwan. Geological structures of southwestern Taiwan comprise two fault
systems. The first one is a NNE-SSW-trending duplex thrust system acting as the deformation
fronts of Plio-Pleistocene Taiwan arc-continent collision. The system includes several parallel,
closely-spaced thrust faults, such as the Tachienshan-Chukou fault, the Chiuchiungkeng fault
and the Liuchia-Muchiliao fault. Furthermore, to the south of the Meishan fault, based on theborehole data and geomorphic analyses, a blind thrust may have propagated outward into the
Coastal Plain. The second one consists of a series of E-W- or ENE-WSW-trending pre-orogenic
Neogene normal faults, which include B-fault, Meishan fault, Yichu fault and Hsinhua fault,
where the Meishan and Hsinhua faults have been inverted as strike-slip and produced
significant earthquakes in 1906 and 1946, respectively. Analyses of 79 continuous and 219
campaign GPS site velocities in southwestern Taiwan indicate a shortening rate of 10-15 mm/yr
fault-perpendicular motion across the NNE-SSW-trending duplex thrust system; and 5-10mm/yr of fault-parallel right-lateral motion across the E-W- or ENE-WSW-trending
pre-orogenic Neogene extensional structures. Distribution of horizontal dilatation strain rates
with the principal strain axes shows a predominant contraction rate of 0.89-2.65 μstrain/yr inthe direction of ~N110ºE; where the rate is slightly larger to the south of the Meishan fault in
the Coastal Plain. Analyses of GPS data suggest that the deformation in southwestern Taiwan
are mostly accommodated by geological structures and affected by the motions of the frontal
thrust sheets and the reactivations of the pre-existing Neogene extensional structures. These
factors need to be incorporated into the seismic hazard considerations.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-6 A technique for seismic discrimination of explosions from earthquakesa

Tae-Seob Kang and a,b Seong-Ju Jeonga

Pukyong National University, Korea, tskang@pknu.ac.krb

Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Korea, goodsjj@gmail.com

Artificial seismic events (explosions) occur due to man-made activities (e.g., undergroundnuclear tests and chemical blasts in mining sites). Explosion events included in earthquake
catalogs affect the study of natural seismicity and seismic hazard for a specific region. Thus,
seismic

discriminationisnecessary to construct a reliable
earthquake catalog which is thebasic data for the study ofearthquake source.
For large magnitude events,
discrimination can be addressedby ratios of body-wave andsurface-wave

magnitudes(mb/MS). However, it is difficult
to use this discriminant to small
Fig. 1. Two-dimensional grids of P/Lg spectral ratios in two seismic

magnitude

events.

A

arrays.

discrimination

methodusing

amplitude ratio of P and Lg
waves has been studied by using regional seismic waves. In general, seismograms from
explosions show a lot of energy in high frequency compared to natural earthquakes. This isbecause small source dimension and explosive focal mechanism of artificial events. However,clear trait of explosion events is unusual in total training dataset because amplitudes of P and Lg
are influenced by reflection, refraction and attenuation while propagating waves. These factors
can be obstacle to conducting a study on discrimination, and so the noises should be reduced on
spectral amplitude. We employ a 2D grids of P/Lg spectral ratios; i.e., amplitude ratio as afunction of the frequency. The 2D grids exhibit greater differences in relative spectral
amplitudes between earthquakes and explosions than traditional P/Lg spectral ratios. The
optimal frequency band in the 2D grids is searched for showing the largest separation between
explosions and earthquakes. We show that the estimation of the optimal frequency band isuseful for seismic discrimination.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-1 Revisit of Taiwan Historical Damaging Earthquakes for Seismic
Hazard Mitigationaa

Kuo-Fong Ma

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, fong@earth.ncu.edu.tw

We characterized the seismic sources for earthquakes in Taiwan, investigated the historicalinstrumental earthquakes, and source scaling of earthquakes (Mw4.6-8.9) mainly from Taiwan
Orogenic belt to build up the fault model toward ground motion prediction. Our studies onsource scaling from recent earthquakes suggest that for future ground motion prediction
program the stress drop, and seismogenic depth are two important factors in the parametersetting for fault model. In addition to the inventory of the modern earthquakes, for the long
repeating period of large earthquakes, the investigation of historical damaging earthquakes had
been very essential for seismic hazard evaluation. We deployed the modern technology inwaveform simulation to the historical records, namely after 1900, to provide more quantitative
understanding of the historical damaging earthquakes on location, and mechanism. We further
made ground motion predictions from derived GMPE (ground motion prediction equation) or
using the method of empirical Green’s functions for the for full waveform simulation. The
intention was made to the 1909 Taipei (M6.8), 1920 Hualien (M8.0), and 1916 Nantou (M6.8)
earthquakes. The 1916 Nantou earthquake was also made to the comparison of the recent 2013
March 27th M6.2 earthquake to give the possible tectonic model of the seismogensis.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-2
aLiterature Search and Seismogram Compilation of Historical
Earthquakes in Taiwan
Shih-Nan Cheng, b Chien-Hsin Chang, c Kuo-Fong Ma, d Yeong Tein Yeh,cTzay-Chyn Shina

Department of Applied Geomatics, Chien Hsin University, Taiwan, ROC, snan@uch.edu.twbCentral Weather Bureau, Taiwan, ROC, gensin@scman.cwb.gov.twcInstitute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan,ROC, fong@earth.ncu.edu.twdGeoResource Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan,ROC,ytyehchna@gmail.com

In this paper, we recompile literature and seismogram of historical earthquakes in
Taiwan, try to establish the database of historical earthquake. The results will serve as
the study of seismic activity, plate tectonics, assessment of earthquake disaster andearthquake history references. The data of historical earthquakes includes two parts:
one is the literature and archives, another is seismogram received by seismograph.
Historical earthquake documents and archives are divided into the following four
categories: 1. official version of the file, 2. the local version of the literature, 3.
personal records and article, and 4. temple history and stele. The disaster information
are estimated corresponding intensity, the GIS is used to build the distribution ofdisaster and intensity. Compare the intensity distribution and active fault, to estimate
the possible source parameters. The empirical formula of acceleration attenuation isused to simulate intensity map. By simulated intensity map and intensity distributionof historical event are compared to assess the reasonableness of the source parameters.
The disasters earthquakes caused more than 100 death as the main objective,
including the 1736 Tainan earthquake, the 1792 Chiayi earthquake, the 1815 Ilanearthquake, the 1839 Chiayi earthquake, the 1845 Taichung earthquake, the 1848
Changhua earthquake and the 1867 Keelung earthquake and so on.
Taiwan accumulated a lot of important seismic records since the Gray-Milne
seismograph was installed in 1897. The seismic records are divided into four
categories: original seismogram, copy of seismogram, microfilm of seismogram, andtext description records. Consider the data processing and storage space, image files
to replace the microfilm to store seismic records. The earliest original seismogram
was recorded by the Omori seismograph for Tainan station on March 1, 1902. The
earliest copy seismogram was recorded by the Gray-Milne seismograph for Tainan
station on June 29, 1900. The preliminary results are compiled as a Web page, thefuture will be regularly updated subsequent processing results.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-3

Ground Motion Evaluation and Validation of the 1920 Hualian
M8.0 Earthquake

Yin-Tung Yena, Po-Shen Lina, Pao-Shan Hsieha, Kuo-Shih Shaoa, Chin-Tung Chenga,
Kuo-Fong MabaSinotech Engineering Consultants Inc., Taipei, TaiwanbInstitute of Geophysics, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan

Subduction zones of east offshore Taiwan could be source areas of interplate
earthquakes. Northeast Taiwan area is under inevitable threat from strong groundmotions generated by future large earthquakes along the subducting plate-boundary.
On June 5, 1920, the Magnitude 8.0 earthquake occurred offshore Hualien, east of
Taiwan and resulted in casualties and building damage in north Taiwan. The historicalseismic intensity map showed that the earthquake shook whole Taiwan. After thisevent, it has no such great event occurred in the similar region during the period ofdigital seismic observation. It is worth to validate the intensity of seismologicalbulletin records and reevaluate the possible shaking on specific site of criticalmetropolitan with scenario simulations. By combining the simulations ofdeterministic method and the stochastic method, the broadband-frequency groundmotion time history could be obtained. We adopted a forward modeling approach toestablish scenario cases with various characterized source models to explain theintensity distribution from historical literature. Not only on the basis of the source
parameters derived from empirical relations, but toward consideration of the related
study for tectonic setting in the subduction zone, we tuned the source parameters,
including hypocentral location, asperity area, and slip pattern. With a systematic
source parameters investigation and quantitative comparison between synthetics andobservations, we could provide possible source model that can best explain the spatial
distribution of historical seismic intensity for this great earthquake. The intensity andacceleration time history of simulation for the specific site will be helpful for theadvance engineering evaluation.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-4 Constructing the seismogenic structure source model of Taiwan
aJ. Bruce H. Shyu, a Yi-Rung Chuang, b Yi-Rui Lee, b Thomas Chin-Tung Chenga

Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TaiwanbDisaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Taipei, Taiwan

One of the most fundamental tasks for constructing a complete Taiwan Earthquake Model(TEM) is to build a seismogenic structure database to understand the seismogenic structuresource models. In the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) project, this is done in the GEM
Faulted Earth sub-project, and is led by scientists from the US, New Zealand, Argentina, andSingapore. The plan is to build a complete active structure database in the world for engineersand hazard mitigation agencies.
Toward this end, we have been reviewing existed active structure databases in Taiwan, andobtaining new information to build such a complete database for Taiwan. There have been
several existing databases.

For example, the Central Geological Survey of Taiwan has

published a quite comprehensive database of active faults in Taiwan. Several other potential
seismogenic structures, including blind faults or folds, have also been mapped and proposed inmany previous investigations. However, long-term slip rates and potential recurrence intervalsof these structures have not been systematically calculated or proposed. Therefore, except for
combining all information to build a digitized seismogenic structure map of Taiwan, we also
attempted to collect all slip-rate information currently available. For those structures that have
not yet been studied in detail previously, we plan to acquire their slip-rate information fromfield surveys and investigations. Such information can be combined together to obtain acomplete seismogenic structure database, with long-term slip rates and recurrence intervals of
all the structures. We hope this new database would become important input source model forthe modeling of future earthquake scenarios in Taiwan.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-5

Active fault segmentation and their seismic hazard
assessment in Qilianshan, NE Tibet

Yuan Dao-yang, Cao Juan-juan, Liu Bai-chi, Wang Ai-guo, Shao Yan-xiu(Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract
Qilianshan lies in northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau. There are series of late Quaternary
active faults which constitute an active tectonic system correlative closely with strong to large
earthquakes, such as the Altyn Tagh fault, Haiyuan fault, Kunlun fault and western Qinling fault etal. In recent 20 years, a series of active fault geological mapping and subject research works has
been developed, and a large sum of quantitative data about the fault geometry, movement, slip rate,
historical and paleo-earthquakes data has been achieved. The first-hand materials and quantitative
data provide us the condition for active fault segmentation and the seismic hazard assessment. Our
research indicates that the “Time-dependent” probability method of seismic potential, basing on“real-time” model, is a ligament to link activity characteristics and earthquake risk. Different fromthe traditional “Poisson” model, for it introduces an important conception- “elapse-time”.
Basing on quantitative data acquired on active faults and rupture segmentation, we determine
synthetically the recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes, and then calculate the seismic
probability on various faults. As a result, the seismic probability on main faults of Qilianshan
region shows that faults with high seismic probability in near 10-20 years include: Yuanfeng
segment (eastern segment) of western Qinling fault (conditional probability 0.04, cumulated
probability 0.84); Zhangxian segment (middle segment) of western Qinling fault (0.03, 0.96);
northern Yumushan fault(0.01, 0.17); eastern Yumushan fault(0.02, 0.97); Sunan fault(0.04, 0.70);
Lenglongling fault(0.05, 0.42); Maomaoshan fault(0.03, 0.92); Jinqianghe fault(0.04, 0.97);
Maxianshan fault(0.06, 0.96); Reshui-Riyueshan fault(0.01, 0.91); Elashan fault(0.02, 0.90);
Maqin-Maqu segment of Kunlun fault(0.06, 0.97).
Then, we use two models to calculate the seismic risk probability in the research area tocompare their difference. The results show that there is great difference between “real-time”
model which considers the “elapse-time” and “Poisson” model. In “Poisson” model, Gulang,
Haiyuan, and southern Tianshui (three historical M≧8 large earthquakes area occurred in
1927,1920 and 1654, respectively) show much high earthquake risk, and the maximal
accelerations are up to 425, 418, 308gal respectively. Whereas, in “real-time” model, risk in thesame areas falls remarkably, and new dangerous areas appear, including western Qinling fault,
Reshui-Riyueshan fault, Maomaoshan fault, Maxianshan fault. The maximal accelerations are up
to 465, 356, 334, 300gal respectively. Maqin-Maqu segment of Kunlun fault shows high risk in
two models, the peak acceleration is up to 296gal. The results of our research show that “Poisson”
model can not reflect the rules of earthquake occurring objectively, especially in areas with highearthquake magnitude, where earthquakes occurring are usually characteristic, and “real-time”
model is more rational than “Poisson” model.
Key words: Qilianshan, Seismic potential, Poission model, Real-time model,
Earthquake risk.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-6 Kyoshin (Strong Motion) Monitor--- A new strong-motion monitoring system --#Shin Aoi, Hiromitsu Nakamura, Takashi Kunugi, Wataru Suzuki, Hiroyuki Fujiwara#

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, aoi@bosai.go.jp

In Japan, earthquake early warning (EEW) is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) when the lager JMA intensity than five. Though EEW is very helpful, in some cases it
works not enough. For instance, the lead time of the EEW for the near earthquake is negative,
and the ground motion is tend to be underestimated for huge earthquakes or coincident
earthquakes. To overcome these problems, utilization of observed continuous and realtime
strong motion information is crucially important, because the EEW and the observed realtime
data are complementary information.
Owning to the drastic progress of information technologies, continuous strong motion
observation has become technically and economically feasible and thus has directly contributed
to the mitigation of ongoing seismic disasters. Basically, ground motions of K-NET and
KiK-net, which are nation-wide strong motion seismograph networks operated by NIED, isrecoded by an event triggering system and the data are sent to the DMC (Data Management
Center at Tsukuba) by non-continues telephone line which is connected only after theearthquake. Because KiK-net stations share the observatory with Hi-net, which performs a
continuous telemetric observation using a high-sensitivity seismograph through a continuousline, they have a continuous line which band width is not broad enough to transmit all the six
components (three components of surface and downhole accelerometers). In addition, some
K-NET stations are experimentally equipped with a continuous line.
For these stations, several kinds of strong motion indexes (PGA, PGV, PGD, real-time
seismic intensity, and response spectra) are continuously calculated inside the instrument andimmediately transmitted through the continuous line to the DMC every second. By visualizingthese observed strong-motion indexes, we have realized a realtime ground-motion monitoring
system, which make it possible us to grasp the current ground motion of Japan Island. We callthis system ‘Kyoshin monitor’, because ‘Kyoshin’ means strong motion in Japanese. We havecombined the ‘Kyoshin monitor’ with EEW information. In this system, the ground motion
estimated from EEW is overlapped on the map with the observed one-second-interval indexes.
On this map the epicenter and the circles showing the arrival time of P- and S-wave estimatedby the EEW are also indicated.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1B-P1 Postdiction of source model and ground motions
for the 2011 Tohoku earthquakeaaHiroe Miyake and a Kazuki Koketsu

Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan

There are many studies on strong ground motion validation for past earthquakes,
applicability of the methodology of strong ground motion prediction, and strong ground motion
prediction for forthcoming earthquakes. We here define postdiction (= prediction after the fact)
as a method of ground motion prediction posterior to the earthquake based on the knowledge
prior to the earthquake. We performed the postdiction of source model and ground motions forthe 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and validated by observed ground motions.
We assumed a fault plane with multiple regions as a single megathrust event, however,excluded the central Sanriku-oki region with aseismic information and offshore regions withtsunami earthquakes and normal faulting information. The rupture area was estimated to bearound 35,000 km2 with Mw 8.3 to 8.5 (e.g., Murotani et al., 2008). We set a characterized
source model (Miyake et al., 2003) based on the recipe for strong ground motion prediction(Irikura and Miyake, 2011). We also incorporated with the double-corner source spectral model(Miyake and Koketsu, 2010) for plate-boundary earthquakes. In this model, size and stress drop
for strong motion generation areas are respectively half and double of that for asperities. Afterthe Tohoku earthquake, we learned different locations and sizes between asperities forlong-period components and strong motion generation areas for short-period components. In
this postdiction, the strong motion generation areas were forced to be inside the asperities.
Based on the knowledge prior to the earthquake, the source model for the 2011 M9-class
Tohoku earthquake seems to be limited to that for the 869 M8-class Jogan earthquake. However
ground motion postdiction fairly matched with the observations. Since the rupture area for the
Tohoku earthquake resulted in a standard deviation of Murotani et al. (2008), rupture area withvariability for a given magnitude may work for forthcoming megathrust source modeling.
References
Irikura K. and H. Miyake (2011), Recipe for predicting strong ground motion from crustal earthquake scenarios,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 85-104.
Miyake H. and K. Koketsu (2010), Testing the double corner source spectral model for long- and short-period
ground motion simulations, 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract S53D-05.
Miyake H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003), Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation:
Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 93,
2531-2545.
Murotani S., H. Miyake and K. Koketsu (2008), Scaling of characterized slip models for plate-boundary
earthquakes, Earth Planets Space, 60, 987-991.

35

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-P2 Utilization of J-SHIS data for general public via J-SHIS Web APIsaa

Hiroki Azuma, Shinichi Kawai, Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, azzie@bosai.go.jp

In the phase of using Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) data for general public, there is amatter of choice to provide open big-data with a suitable format to covey efficiently andeffectively. J-SHIS Web APIs match for J-SHIS data that have these characteristics; 1.
Covering the whole area in Japan, 2. Include much type of data attributes in each meshes, 3.
Static data renews annual. So that It makes possible to use these data from mobile terminal todesktop or server applications.
While we started to provide J-SHIS Web API service in April 2012, some case appears
use this service in both business and publishes side. We pickup 3 points as merits of thisRestful API; are speed, simplicity, and its universality. Because of it, many developers canmake programs in short term, and as a result, J-SHIS Web API records 300 thousands ofaccess in a day when the third-party web application was released.
A web-originated concept called “REST (Representational State Transfer)” means simple
request-response based architecture that stands on corresponding a Resource to an URI(Uniformed Resource Identifier)uniquely and they have No cookies
and no sessions. In J-SHIS Web
APIs,

we

corresponded

eachmeshes as URI to attributes ofseismic hazard data like strong
motionintensityasresource.

Because of that, each mobile GPS
can get SHA data of present point
directly and web application map

Fig. 1. J-SHIS provides data with several formats to general public.

service can get issued point data
correctly. This is not only way to provide SHA data, but from this study, we know that is theone of the strongest solution to provide these types of data.
References
Roy Thomas Fielding (2000), Architectural Styles and the Design of Network-based Software Architectures,
Chapter 5, http://www.ics.uci.edu/~fielding/pubs/dissertation/rest_arch_style.htm

36

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2A-P3 Case study for utilization of seismic hazard information to local
municipal programaaNobusuke Hasegawa

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, hasegawa-nobusuke@bosai.go.jp

A governmental organization, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) publishes
the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention (NIED) shows the maps on the website "Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS)”(http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/), and seismic hazard curve data in 250m mesh are available from the website.
The 250m mesh hazard data can provide useful information for citizens and local government to know local
earthquake environment. But how citizens and local government make use of these hazard information for
the enhancement of disaster prevention is a problem.
In order for citizens and local government to take advantage in region, risk information as well as hazard
information is required. Then, it becomes a problem how to obtain information about the vulnerability ofregion against earthquake. In this study, I examined two workshops of community participation about
disaster prevention. In these workshops, town walk to discover the vulnerability of region, and discussion to
overcome the vulnerability were carried out. From these cases, I found that it raised interest in local
community of residents that residents themselves investigated the vulnerability of region by town walk, andthat discussion about solutions to overcome the vulnerability promoted the communication between residents
and gave tips for disaster reduction measurement. On the other hand, I found that in order to further effective
use of investigation data, risk assessment tool for residents use is required. Of course, experts should beintervening in the risk assessment.
It can be seen through these workshops that residents act aggressively when methods and opportunity isprovided. Story that disaster prevention activities in region will not be promoted easily, is often heard.
However, it is inferred because it is not blessed with methods and opportunity. Therefore, I think that local
government should do to promote the activity of residents for disaster prevention is to present menus that
residents can select according to local conditions, and to provide an opportunity to practice. And, I think thatdevelopment of a risk assessment tool for use in region is required for scientists and engineers.

37

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P4
a

Literature Search and Seismogram Compilation ofHistorical Earthquakes in Taiwan

Shih-Nan Cheng, b Chien-Hsin Chang, c Kuo-Fong Ma, d Yeong Tein Yeh,cTzay-Chyn Shina

Department of Applied Geomatics, Chien Hsin University, Taiwan, ROC, snan@uch.edu.twbCentral Weather Bureau, Taiwan, ROC, gensin@scman.cwb.gov.twcInstitute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan,ROC, fong@earth.ncu.edu.twdGeoResource Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan,ROC,ytyehchna@gmail.com

In this paper, we recompile literature and seismogram of historical earthquakes in
Taiwan, try to establish the database of historical earthquake. The results will serve as
the study of seismic activity, plate tectonics, assessment of earthquake disaster andearthquake history references. The data of historical earthquakes includes two parts:
one is the literature and archives, another is seismogram received by seismograph.
Historical earthquake documents and archives are divided into the following four
categories: 1. official version of the file, 2. the local version of the literature, 3.
personal records and article, and 4. temple history and stele. The disaster information
are estimated corresponding intensity, the GIS is used to build the distribution ofdisaster and intensity. Compare the intensity distribution and active fault, to estimate
the possible source parameters. The empirical formula of acceleration attenuation isused to simulate intensity map. By simulated intensity map and intensity distributionof historical event are compared to assess the reasonableness of the source parameters.
The disasters earthquakes caused more than 100 death as the main objective,
including the 1736 Tainan earthquake, the 1792 Chiayi earthquake, the 1815 Ilanearthquake, the 1839 Chiayi earthquake, the 1845 Taichung earthquake, the 1848
Changhua earthquake and the 1867 Keelung earthquake and so on.
Taiwan accumulated a lot of important seismic records since the Gray-Milne
seismograph was installed in 1897. The seismic records are divided into four
categories: original seismogram, copy of seismogram, microfilm of seismogram, andtext description records. Consider the data processing and storage space, image files
to replace the microfilm to store seismic records. The earliest original seismogram
was recorded by the Omori seismograph for Tainan station on March 1, 1902. The
earliest copy seismogram was recorded by the Gray-Milne seismograph for Tainan
station on June 29, 1900. The preliminary results are compiled as a Web page, thefuture will be regularly updated subsequent processing results.

38

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P5 Characteristics of strong shaking duration in Taiwan
aa

Ya-Ting Lee, a Kuo-Fong Ma, a Yu-Ju Wang, a Kuo-Liang Wen

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan

Strong shaking duration plays an important role to affect the yield damage caused by anearthquake. In this study, we analyzed the acceleration seismograms of Taiwan Strong Motion
Network to characterize the strong shaking duration with function of the earthquake magnitude
and distance. We defined the duration to be the length of interval across the dissipated energy
with 5%~95% of the total energy during the time interval between the first and the last
amplitude which equal to or greater than a specified threshold value (here we gave the thresholdvalue for 10gal). We estimated the duration for 2507 events with magnitude ranged of
ML=4.0~7.0 during 1994 to 2010. We, thus, obtained the empirical equation of the strong
shaking duration with magnitude and distance.
Base on these two relations: the positive relation between duration and magnitude, and thenegative relation between duration and distance, an empirical equation can be estimated as:ME(τ,Δ) = 2.9795 + 2.7105log(τ) + 0.0027Δ, where Δ is distance (km), and τ is duration time(sec). It could provide the characteristics of strong shaking duration preliminarily for the
Taiwan earthquakes. Also we considered the site condition. The four empirical equations ofdifferent site classes are estimated as: ME(τ) = 3.3797 + 2.6228 log(τ) + 0.0052Δ for B site (firmto hard rock), ME(τ) = 2.9749 + 2.8953 log(τ) + 0.0029Δ for C site (dense soil and soft rock),ME(τ) = 3.2259 + 2.1955 log(τ) + 0.0044Δ for D site (stiff soil), and ME(τ) = 3.8564 + 1.6610
log(τ) + 0.0050Δ for E site (soft soil). We applied these empirical equations to the 1999, Chiayi
earthquake, also to the 1909, 1920 historical earthquakes, and gave the risk potential for the
nuclear power plants around the coast of Taiwan.

39

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P6 On-site experiment of seismic monitoring network by utilization
inside sensors of mobile terminalaShohei Naito, Hiroki Azuma, Shigeki Senna, Mutsuhiro Yoshizawa, Hiromitsu Nakamura, Ken Xiansheng Hao,
Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Yoshiharu Hirayama, Noburu Yuki, and Minoru Yoshidaa

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, naito@bosai.go.jp

Mobile terminal devices have small, lightweight, and cheap acceleration sensors so-called MEMS withwireless communication adaptors inside. By using MEMS sensors densely for monitoring earthquake, we would
know detailed distribution information of shaking intensity. By sharing those information through the cloudcomputing system, we could raise public awareness for disaster prevention. "i-Jishin" was one of examples, which
is an experimental earthquake observation system developed using inside sensor of iPhone/iPad/iPod touch
Yoshida et al (2011) (Fig 1.) .
By comparison "i-Jishin" with K-NET02
seismometer, Naito et al. (2011) concluded that theconsistency would be perfectly for JMA intensities
large than 3, and contaminated by noises for less than
2.
In this study, performance of MEMS acceleration
sensors and on-site experiment of seismic monitoring
network by utilization inside sensors of mobile
terminal have been reported.
In order to examine the possibility of application
about strong motion observation of the building using"i-Jishin", we installed 10 terminals on two different
floors in the low-rise RC buildings, and started
Fig 1. “i-jishin” and “geonavi”
monitoring from January 2012. After installation, wewere able to get a large number of earthquake records corresponding up to a JMA intensity 4. By analyzing these
data, one building showed significantly high velocity response values. It was consistent with the fact that thisbuilding was significantly damaged in the non-structural component after the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake.
After that, the microtremor observation using JU-310(Hakusan Corp.) also found the largest amplificationcompared to others in this building regarding the H / V spectral ratio.
To enhance of social experimental, we installed i-Jishin on more than 30 different buildings which havedifferent structure types and network environments around the city of Nagaoka, Niigata Prefecture and Fujisawa,
Kanagawa Prefecture since January 2012(Azuma et al 2012). In that case, the staff of NPO installed terminals tothe houses of volunteer that well understood about the effect of sensing. However, many problems were still foundsuch as, diversities of networking environment, uneasily understandable benefits of installation, requirement toensure the stability of the measurement, and needs of human resources for maintenance.
To solve these problems, we have to develop a more reliable and accurate systems or an easily understandable
system for public. Besides we are going to enhance the cooperation with "i-Bidou" which is the system of the cloudtype microtremor observation (Senna et al 2012). We are planning to keep developing of the system to visualize thehazard information of regional soil and building conditions, and keep performing experiments of the sensor
network system so that everyone can measure and share information of the buildings.

References
M.Yoshida, H.Fujiwara, Y.Tanaka, S.Morino, M.Oguni, N.Yuki, S.Kuroda, T.Nakai, H.Azuma, S.Naito, K. X.
Hao (2011), i-Jishin Cloud System, Japan Geoscience Union meeting 2011
S.Naito, T.Kunigi, H.Nakamura, H.Fujiwara, N.Yuki(2011), Evaluation of MEMS acdeleration sensor for strong
motion observation using i-Jishin, Japan Geoscience Union meeting 2011
H.Azuma, S.Naito, R.Fukumoto, H.Nakamura, S.Senna, H.Fujiwara, M.Yoshida(2012), Continued effort for theDevelopment of the i-Jishin cloud system, Japan Geoscience Union meeting 2012
S.Senna, H.Azuma, S.Adachi, Y.Asaka, H.Fujiwara(2012), Construction of the cloud type microtremor
observation system, Japan Geoscience Union meeting 201240

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P7 Study of an empirical model to evaluate tsunami inundation areaaSatoshi Shimizu, b Masatsugu Wakauraa

OYORMS Corporation, Japan, satoshi.shimizu@oyorms.co.jpb

OYORMS Corporation, Japan, masatsugu.wakaura@oyorms.co.jp

This study aims at constructing an empirical model to evaluate tsunami inundation area
without sequential computations. The model is derived from actual inundation data of tsunami
due to 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. It uses only three explanatory variables, tsunami height atcoastline, ground level and distance from coastline to an objective site.

We verify thepredictability of the model comparing with inundation data of 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. We
find the model well fit to actual inundation areas from Fukushima to South Iwate. Further, we
compare predicted inundation areas of the model with simulation results by Cabinet Office,
Government of Japan.
Because of its simplicity, the model is expected to be widely used in predicting Tsunami
inundation areas.
Predicted inundation area
Actual inundation area

Predicted inundation area
Actual inundation area

AroundSendai plainsthe inundation area between predictedAround
Rikuzentakata
Fig-1. Comparison
area andactual one.

References
S.Shimizu and M.Wakaura(2012), Simplified evaluation formula for inundation area by tsunami, Proceedings ofthe anuual conference of the institute of social safety science, pp.5-8, 2012.6.

41

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P8 Seismic zoning maps of Vietnam for the Building Codea

Nguyen Dinh xuyen, Nguyen Le Minh, Nguyen Quoc Cuong, Nguyen Tien Hung, Tran Thi
My Thanh.

aInstitute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, tmythanh@igp.vast.vn,

tmythanh@yahoo.com

The seismic zoning maps of Vietnam were included in the Vietnamese Building CodeTCXDVN 375-2006: Seismic Design Standards in 2006 for the first time. The maps arecharacterized with the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a return period of 500 years on
ground type A. In 2012, the Association of
Structure and Construction Techniques ofVietnam required to implement seismic
design in seismic regions to meet the current
requirements of the design and constructionof structures for seismic safety in Vietnam .
To meet the above requirements, seismic
zoning map Vietnam territory has to be
updated to the 2012 results of seismic zoningof the territory of Vietnam under the MSK-64
scale, with an exceedance probability of 10%,5%, 1% and 0.5% in 50 years, respectively(corresponding to a return period of 250, 500,
1000, 5000, and 10000 years, respectively).
These results are based on the map of theearthquakes generated from the source map
Fig. 1. Maximum free-surface elevation along theon Vietnamese territory and is calculated with

Central Vietnam coast.

the

CRISSIS99

programbasedonprobabilistic analysis methods, by using the vibration attenuation relationship proposed by
Nguyen Dinh Xuyen and Tran Thi My Thanh.
References
Nguyen Dinh Xuyen, Tran Thi My Thanh, 1999, Define a peak ground motion attenuation relationship for
Vietnam. Journal of Earth Sciences,Vol.21, 3, 207-213
Campbell W. Kenneth, 1997, Empirical near-source attenuation relations for horizontal and vertical components ofpeak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra,
Seismological research letters, 68(1), pp. 154-179

42

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

2B-P9 Seismic hazard analysis based on the joint probability density
function of PGA and PGVaTakayuki Hayashi, b Sei’ichiro Fukushimaa

Tokio Marine & Nichido Risk Consulting Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan, takayuki.hayashi@tokiorisk.co.jpbTokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan, fukushima@tespco.co.jp

In seismic probability safety analysis, ground motion intensity is usually expressed by asingle index such as peak ground acceleration (hereinafter called PGA), spectral acceleration at
a specified period, or peak ground velocity (hereinafter called PGV). Limiting the number ofindices, however, gives large uncertainty in the estimation of annual failure probability that isgiven by convolving seismic hazard curve and seismic fragility curve, since information except
for ground motion intensity is lost. This study examines the seismic hazard using PGA and PGV,
for which many attenuation relations are proposed. After analyzing correlation coefficient
between PGA and PGA using K-NET and KiK-net databases, probabilistic seismic hazard formodel sites in Kanto district in Japan is evaluated. Fig.1 shows the results of seismic hazard
analysis. In this paper, the results are expressed by the contours showing the given probabilities
of exceedance. From the figure, it is apparent that the shapes of contours vary with thecorrelation between PGA and PGV. It is found that the shape of seismic hazard curve is
influenced by dominant earthquakes to the site, and by correlation between PGA and PGV.
(1E-5)

250

250

200

Groundmotion
Intensity

200

150

PGV(cm/s)
PGV(cm/s)

PGV(cm/s)
PGV(cm/s)(1E-4)

100

50

150

PGV*
(cm/s)Tokyo

Yokohama

100

58.73E-02

1.11E-01(1E-3)

100

50(1E-2)(1E-2)

0
0

500

1000

1500

PGA(cm/s2)

PGA(cm/s/s)

2000

2500

Conditional Probability

PGA(cm/s2)500

25

1.53E-03

2.88E-03

1000

50

1.39E-04

3.68E-04

1000－

1.46E-04

3.86E-04－50

3.96E-03

6.51E-03

0
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PGA(cm/s2)

PGA(cm/s/s)

Fig. 1. Seismic Hazard Plane for Model Site

Acknowledgement
We give the special thanks to National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention for theiracceptance to use K-NET and KiK-net databases for this research.

References
Bazzurro P, Cornell CA. (2002), Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(VPSHA), Proceedings 7th
U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Boston

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-P10Comparison of several common transfer functions for site
effect study in Taipei basina

JY Huang, b KL Wen, c CT Chena

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, jyhuang428@gmail.comb

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, wenkl@earth.ncu.edu.twc

Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, pokayoke69@gmail.com

Detailed shallow velocity structure was very important for site effect study. One of
the most accurate but expansive ways was P-S logging measurement from boreholes
which could give us not only Vs30 to classify site class but also detailed velocity
structure including P and S wave. However, this technique was usually hard to widely
obtain due to economy consideration for construct large amount of high costboreholes. Otherwise, free field strong motion stations were much more densely thanboreholes in Taiwan that give some chance to calculate transfer functions in many
ways. From mid-later of 20th century, transfer function from spectral ratio method
between rock and soil site started to consider site effect. Microtremor (Nakamura
1989) and earthquake H/V spectral ratio (Lermo and Chávez-García 1993) as atransfer function than became popular on late 20th century. Wen and Huang (2012)
constructed a dense microtremor survey in whole Taiwan except mountain region
which possible could apply to this objective.
Recent year, stochastic method (SMSIM, Boore, 2009) could provide acceptable
simulation with wide frequency band for rock sites. If site correction from thesetransfer functions need to apply to simulation technique, the difference between
observation and simulation for soil site should identified and understood first. (Wen etal., 2013) In this study, the characteristic comparison of above four methods wasmade to discuss the spectrum difference in many cases in Taipei basin.
References
Boore D.M. (2009), Comparing stochastic point-source and finite-source ground-motion simulations:
SMSIM and EXSIM, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 99(6), 3202-3216.
Lermo J. and F.J. Chávez-García (1993) Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one
station, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 83, 1574-1594.
Nakamura Y. (1989) A method for dynamic characteristies estimation of subsurface using microtremor
on the ground surface, QR of RTRI, 30(1), 25-33.
Wen K.L. and J.Y. Huang (2012) Dense microtremor survey for site effect study in Taiwan, 15th World
Conference of Earthquake Engineering, 24-28 September, Lisbon, WCEE2012_1682.
Wen K.L., J.Y. Huang and C.T. Chen (2013): Empirical site correction for ground motion simulation,
10CUEE Conference Proceedings, 10th International Conference on Urban Earthquake
Engineering, March 1-2, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan. 01-317.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-P11 Modeling of the subsurface structure from the seismic bedrock to
the ground surface for a broadband strong motion evaluationab

Shigeki Senna, Takahiro Maeda, Yoshiaki Inagaki, Haruhiko Suzuki, Naohiro, Matsuyama,aa

Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, senna@bosai.go.jpb

OYO Corporation, Japan

In order to perform earthquake ground motion prediction for a broadband, it is important to get to know thefoundation structure model from the seismic bedrock to the ground surface. However, in the previous research, thestructure model aiming at earthquake motion prediction of the broadband in a wide area is not created. In this study,
we are modeling of the subsurface structure from the seismic bedrock to the ground surface for a broadband strong
motion evaluation with about 250m intervals. To use the initial velocity structural model as the basis for analysis,
we adopted the existing deep structure model ( J-SHIS model ) deeper than engineering bedrock, and created ashallow structure model from the geologic columns provided by the Chiba, Ibaraki and Niigata prefectures orourselves.
In the initial stage, we combined the two ground structure models (Shallow-structure and Deep-structure) toform the seismic bedrock to the ground surface. Moreover, we conducted microtremor observations throughout
Chiba, Ibaraki and Niigata prefecture, to construct a detailed velocity structure model. We carried out microtremor
observation of the single point (H/V) at intervals of about 2 km. On the other hand, we carried out microtremor
array observation at intervals of about 5 to 10km. Microtremor observation points are always seismic observation
point or school. We used an integrated microtremor observation unit (JU-210, 215, Hakusan Corp.), equipped with
two horizontal elements, one vertical element, and a data-logger (LS-7000XT). Tuning of the velocity structure
model was performed by method shown below.
First, the depth of seismic bedrock was adjustedwith the R/V spectrum of seismic observation
record. Next, the reverse-analysis by the H/Vspectral ratio and the phase velocity was appliedon the initial model. In order to create a final
velocity
structuremodel,
we
werereverse-analyzed by the phase velocity created by
the above-mentioned velocity structure model,
and microtremor observation (H/V spectral ratio)
result. Reverse analysis is conducted in two steps.
The last structure model averaged the S wave
velocity of the same geological formation model,
and was created.
In addition, the spectral amplification rate
obtained from our model is consistent with that ofearthquake ground motion recorded by strong
ground motion observation point. As a result, theFig 1. The key map of the subsurface structure from thevelocity structure model which can mainly
explain the excellence period of the range for 2.0 seismic bedrock to the ground surface creation
to 0.5 second was able to be created. In response to this result, modeling from the seismic bedrock for earthquake
motion prediction to the ground is due to be performed in a wide area from now on. A report of the structure model
creation technique, and the data about observations results and structure models were published by "TechnicalNote(No.370) of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention".

References

Arai, H. and Tokimatsu, K.(2004). S-Wave Velocity Profiling by Inversion of Microtremor H/V Spectrum,
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 1, pp. 53–63.
Fujiwara, H., Kawai, S., Aoi, S., Morikawa, N., Senna, S., Kudo, N., Ooi, M., Hao, K., Hayakawa, Y., Tohyama,N., Matsuyama, H., Iwamoto, K., Suzuki, H., and Liu, Y. (2009). Review of the Approach to Construct a
Nationwide Deep Soil Structure Model for the Evaluation of Strong Earthquakes, Research Material of
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 337.
Senna, S., Maeda T., Inagaki Y., Suzuki, H., Jin, K., Miyamato, Matsuyama, N., K., Morikawa, N., Kawai, S., andFujiwara, H.,(2013). Modeling of the subsurface structure from the seismic bedrock to the ground surface fora broadband strong motion evaluation in Chiba and Ibaraki Prefecture, Research Material of National ResearchInstitute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 370.
Yamanaka, H., Ohori, H. and Midorikawa, S. (2010). Estimation of the Structure of Seamless S-wave Velocity in
the Kanto Plain by the Inverse Analysis of Soil Amplifying Characteristics based on Earthquake Records,
Architectural Institute of Japan.

45

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-P12

Crustal dynamics simulation

based on activitie characteristics of the fault
Jisheng Zhao
National Earthquake Infrastructure Service, China, jisheng_zhao@163.com

Strong earthquakes(M≥7) mainly occurred in the block boundary zone in China.
preparation and occurrence of earthquakes are closely associated with movement offaults.Through dynamics simulation of active block movement based active
characteristics of faults the region of frequent destructive earthquakes is
estimated,which is able to provide foundation and basis for seismic hazard
assessment.

Fig.1 distribution of faults and strong earthquakes in the research area

The area which Xianshuihe fault,Longmenshan fault and Dongkunlun fault arelocated at is chosen as the research object(fig.1).The differences of fault friction
characteristics before and after the earthquake in rate and state-dependent friction law
are applied.Then the motion state of these faults before and after the nearest
destructive earthquakes—Kunlunshan earthquake,Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu
earthquake is simulated based on tectonic stress data, GPS data, geometry andkinematics characteristics of faults,geological data and historical earthquake data. The
results show that there are relations between stress, strain and deformation behavior
and earthquake. According to preliminary inference strong earthquakes may happen in
the northwest of Xianshuihe fault.

46

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3A-P13

The application of the modern geodetic informationin the study of future seismic zoning

Yao Yunsheng, Wang Dun(Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration，Wuhan 430071，China)

The modern geodetic technology, which space geodesy is its symbol, is already capable ofmonitoring the motion state of geodynamic process and the micro-change of geophysical field,
whether on the measurement of spatial scales or accuracy levels，such as plate motion, crustal
deformation, the stress - strain field change and gravity field change of the active tectonic
zone, as well as the geophysical parameters of fault creep et. We can understand the evolutionof the earth's tectonic activity and go to forecast the regional seismic activity by studying of
the kinematics and dynamics.
However, the past seismic zoning map and the present one are based on geophysical data,regional geological structure, site conditions, history seismic activity and modern one, as wellas ground motion attenuation relationship. The modern geodetic information is rarely
considered. The research of regional crustal dynamic process is lack of.
This study suggests that, we should make full use of accumulated modern geodesy data andobtain the regional stress-strain field and gravity field to predict regional intermediate-term andlong-term seismic hazard. The modern geodesy is regarded as one of the important basic tomake the future seismic zoning map.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-P14 Review the 1906 Meishan earthquake and Chiayi transfer zone incentral TaiwanaaYuan-Hsi Lee

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, National Chung-Cheng University, Taiwan,

seilee@eq.ccu.edu.tw

The Chiayi transfer zone is the major segment boundary of the fold and thrust belt in central
Taiwan which separates the Changhua-Chelungpu faults and Muchiliao-Liuchia faults. In thistransfer zone several active faults, including Meishan fault, Kukeng fault, Chiayi fault, andChiuchungkeng fault, were developed to accommodate the ca. 3 cm/yr shortening.
The Chiayi fault, ca. 30 km in length, is a blind listric thrust which deformed ca. 35000 bp
lateritic terraces. The Chiuchungkeng fault, ca. 17km in length, is a low angel thrust cut the18540 bp terrace. Kukeng fault, ca. 17km in length, is strike slip fault which separates the
Changhua fault and Chiuchungkeng fault. The 1906 Meishan earthquake (M7.1) resulted in anear 14 km surface rupture caused by activation of the right lateral Meishan fault. During 1999
earthquake the Meishan fault is also the southern ending boundary of the surface deformation.
The seismic profiles show the Meishan fault could extend eastward and becomes a blind fault
beneath the Chiuchungkeng fault. The total length is ca. 30 km and high angle dipping to thesouth. We considered that the mechanism of controlling the transfer zone of Chiayi area resultsfrom the variation of crust strength and foreland basin sequences from north to the south.

48

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-P15 Long-period ground motion for megathrust earthquakes at the
Sagami Trough: Effects of source variety on ground motionaaAsako Iwaki, a Nobuyuki Morikawa, a Takahiro Maeda, a Shin Aoi, a Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, iwaki@bosai.go.jp

Two types of earthquakes, the 1923 Taisho- and the 1703 Genroku-type Kanto earthquakes,
have been well known as the historical megathrust earthquakes at the Sagami Trough andconsidered as future scenario earthquakes (e.g., the Headquarters for Earthquake Research
Promotion [HERP], 2004). However, a new long-term evaluation for Sagami Troughmegathrust earthquake currently under discussion by HERP considers the earthquake source
region which extends to the outside the source areas of the two types where no historicalmegathrust event is known to have taken place.
In this study, we perform long-period ground motion simulations by 3D finite-difference
method for Sagami Trough earthquakes based on the maximum source region proposed by
HERP. As for Sagami Trough, lack of accumulated historical earthquake records prevents us
from obtaining knowledge of the source model for the next anticipated event. Therefor it isimportant to consider numerous choices for the unknown outer and inner source parameters.
To construct our source models, the maximum source region is divided into six segments,
each of which composes a number of scenario cases by itself or in combination with othersegment(s). We compared ground motions for several scenario cases with different magnitudes,
including Taisho-type (MW7.9), Genroku-type (MW8.3), and the maximum type (MW8.6). Peakground velocity (PGV) within the Kanto area, including Tokyo metropolitan area, differs byseveral to several to several ten times depending on the choice of the scenario case.
We also studied the effects of the variety in inner fault parameters, such as rupture starting
points and asperity patterns. They can greatly vary the ground motion within Kanto area,
especially in the direction of rupture propagation, suggesting the sever impact of directivity.
Peak ground velocity (PGV) and velocity response (Sv) vary by up to ten times depending on
the position of rupture starting points, and up to several to five times depending on the asperity
pattern.
Our simulation results showed that the predicted ground motions for the scenario
earthquakes strongly depends on both the outer and inner fault parameters of the source models.
It is suggested that the seismic hazard assessment requires statistical evaluation of groundmotions from as many source models as possible in order to overcome the uncertainties of thesource.
References
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2004), Long-term evaluation of seismic activities oat the
Sagami Trough, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/04aug_sagami/index.htm (in Japanese).

49

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-P16 Evaluation of long-period ground motion for
the anticipated Nankai-Trough megathrust earthquakesaaTakahiro Maeda, Nobuyuki Morikawa, Asako Iwaki, Shin Aoi, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, tmaeda@bosai.go.jp

The megathrust earthquakes around the Nankai Trough have been occurring with an intervalof 100-200 years. Several recent Nankai-Trough earthquakes show various occurrence patterns
such as a series of smaller earthquakes in short time period and a single larger event ruptured atonce. We have no exact idea for the occurrence pattern of the next earthquake and thus it isimportant to understand a possible range of long-period ground motion by considering theuncertainty of source model. In this study, we evaluate long-period ground motions for the
Nankai-Trough megathrust earthquakes, including the anticipated largest earthquake, using
many scenarios with various possible source parameters such as source area, asperity
distribution and hypocenter. We also assumed a variation of rupture velocity and source timefunction for the shallower part of source area (depth range of ~10km). The long-period groundmotions were simulated by the finite difference method using characterized source model and
3D velocity structure model of Japan. We used the GMS (ground motion simulator) for the 3D
finite difference simulation.
The simulation results for the anticipated largest earthquakes at selected sites show thatdeeper part of source area (depth range of 10~40km) has larger contribution to long-period
ground motion than shallower part of source area. Among the anticipated largest earthquakes,
the asperity distribution on the deeper part of source area and hypocenter location cause
variation of the peak ground velocity (PGV) by a factor of two and a factor of up to five,respectively. The PGV values and response spectra for all simulated scenarios show a large
scattering. However, we found that the larger events tend to have larger average values bygrouping the scenarios with respect to source area.

50

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-P17 A social experiment of a new strong-motion monitoring system(Kyoshin Monitor) with earthquake early warninga

Hiromitsu Nakamura, Shin Aoi, Takashi Kunugi, Wataru Suzuki, Shohei Naito,
Hiroki Azuma, and Hiroyuki FujiwaraaNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, manta@bosai.go.jp

In August 2008, NIED started “Kyoshin Monitor”, which is a web service providing 24
hour live shaking maps of earthquake in Japan. After the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (M9), theaccess number of the Kyoshin Monitor increased surprisingly, and drew much attention of bothexperts and general public. The JMA’s earthquake early warning system for the 2011 Tohoku
earthquake was not able to issue a warning to wide areas, which actually experienced the severe
shakings, due to an underestimation of the earthquake magnitude. Our purposed method for
detecting mega-magnitude earthquake based on distribution of observed strong-motion data
has been effectively examined as a system independent of the earthquake early warning system.
The combination of the earthquake early warning system as the latest forecast, with the
Kyoshin Monitor as the real observation is much important in mitigating earthquake damage.
We have developed a new Kyoshin Monitor that can provide the combined information(hereafter referred to as the “Trial Version Kyoshin Monitor”).
In this research, a social experiment with the general public of the Trial Version Kyoshin
Monitor has been carried out from Sep. in 2012 to Feb. in 2013. Questionnaires were used tocollect information on the background and motivation for using the Kyoshin Monitor, opinions
on the version used, use status, usability, and other appropriate items, aiming to understand the
public’s needs for the delivery, use and utilization ofstrong-motion observation information in the future.
The social experiment was implemented through alimited online publication of the Trial Version
Kyoshin Monitor to experiment participants followinguser registration. Public participation through a social
experiment website (Fig.1) was invited three times
between Sep. and Oct. in 2012, and a total of
approximately 4000 participants joined.
Acknowledgement: We would like to express our
gratitude to the participants in this social experiment.

51

Fig.1 Social experiment website
experiment has been finished)(theThe Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013%3Adjustment of seismic ground motion parameters on site effects
in seismic zonation mapaXiao Jun Li b Ming Jie Chi

aInstitute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China, beerli@vip.sina.com

bInstitute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China, 03115049@bjtu.edu.cn

The demand and main research results are analyzed for the consideration of the site
effects on the determination of seismic ground motion parameters in the engineering design,and comparison is made among the consideration methods of the site effects in the existing
seismic design codes in China and other countries. Combined with the compiling work of theseismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China, this article introduces thedevelopment and change of the technical approach for the consideration of site effects, andproposes an adjustment scheme of seismic ground motion parameters related to site conditionand corresponding site coefficient table based on site classification in zonation map
compilation. Furthermore, the results and change features of the strong motion parameters
adjusted for site class effects is analyzed in the new generation seismic ground motion
parameter zonation map, and also the existing problems and development trend are pointed
out in consideration of the site effects.
Table 1 presents the site coefficients of the peak ground acceleration of strong groundmotion adjusted for site class effects, and Table 2 presents the values of the characteristic
period of strong ground motion adjusted for site class effects.
Table 1 The site coefficients of the peak ground acceleration (PGA)of strong ground motion adjusted for site class effects
PGA on Site Class Ⅱ (g)
Site
Class
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.30
≤0.05
≥0.40
I0
0.72
0.74
0.75
0.76
0.85
0.90
I1
0.80
0.82
0.83
0.85
0.95
1.00
II
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
III
1.30
1.25
1.15
1.00
1.00
1.00
IV
1.25
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.95
0.90
Table 2 The values of the characteristic period of strong ground motion
adjusted for site class effects（s）
Site Class
Characteristic
Period Zone
I0
I1
II
III
IV
1
0.20
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.65
2
0.25
0.30
0.40
0.55
0.75
3
0.30
0.35
0.45
0.65
0.90

References
HU Yu-xian, et al ( 2001). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB 18306-2001). Beijing:Standards Press of China (in Chinese)

52

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

3B-P19The Statistical Analysis of Long-period Ground Motion
Attenuation Relationships on Bedrock Site
1

1

Zhenghua Zhou

Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing, China, bjsmoc@163.com

A new method is proposed in this paper, i.e. the strong ground motion accelerogramson the soil sites were conditionally applied to the statistical analysis of the long-period
strong ground motion attenuation relationship on the rock site.
Based on equivalent linearization method of the one-dimension soil layer earthquake
response analysis, the earthquake responses of many analytical models corresponds todifferent site category were calculated under artificial synthetic ground motion input.
By comparison of acceleration response spectra on different analytical model withcorresponding bedrock acceleration response spectrum, it was found that a thicknessof overlying soil only amplified ground motion within a certain frequency band; foroverlying soil thickness less than 100 m and the shear wave velocity of each soil layer
greater than or equal to 100m/s, the ground motion greater than 8s was not influenced
and its response spectrum was approaching to the response spectrum on rock site.
The comparison of the response spectrum of accelerograms from Wenchuan
earthquake on different site condition was shown that despite the different site
conditions could significantly influenced the ground motion within a certain
frequency band, ground motion acceleration response spectra among 8s to 20s long
period section on different site with similar epicenter distance is approaching. It isfurther illustrated that ground motion accelerograms on the soil sites wereconditionally applied to the statistical analysis of the long-period strong groundmotion attenuation relationship on the rock site.
The selecting principle of strong ground motion accelerograms on different site
condition were determined, several thousand strong ground motion accelerogramsfrom 26 earthquakes occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region were screened, 438 strong
motion records were selected, magnitude range with MS5.5 to MS8.0, epicenter
distance from 3km to 300km.
Based on the strong motion acceleration records meeting the screening condition, the2 steps regressing least square method is used to establish the attenuation relationshipof acceleration response spectra at 6 periods from 8 to 20 second. Finally, by the
analysis of change in attenuation relationship with the magnitude and distance and thecomparison with the actual earthquake records, the rationality on the regression
analysis of attenuation relationship is discussed.

53

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

54

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

1st A n n u a l m e e t i n g

2nd A n n u a l m e e t i n g

3rd A n n u a l m e e t i n g

55

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

The 1 st Annual Meeting

The Opening Speech

56

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Japanese
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-KoreanChinese-Korean-Japaneseve Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next
Cooperati
Cooperative
Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China

Keynote Presentation
Nov. 26

Place: Meeting Hall 31
3111

2:00
10
10::00-1
0-12Chairman: Tao Xiaxin

Speaker

Title

Country

Li Xiaojun

Seismic Hazard Assessment in China

China

Hiroyuki Fujiwara

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Japan

Japan

Myung-Soon Jun

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Korea

Korea

Vladimir Kossobokov/

Recent testing of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment

Anastasia Nekrasova

Maps

RussiaChinese Session
Nov. 26

Place: Meeting Hall 313111

30-15:00
13:
13:3

Chairman: Hiroyuki Fujiwara

Speaker

Title

Country

Tao Xiaxin

Some issues in seismic hazard assessment

China

Wang Lanmin

Seismic zoning map of Lanzhou region, China

China

Tao Zhengru

Seismology based strong ground motion attenuation
relationship for national zoning map

China

-2-

57

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Japanese
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-KoreanChinese-Korean-Japaneseve Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next
Cooperati
Cooperative
Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Tang Aiping

Seismic hazard assessment in low seismicity province

China

Japanese Session
Nov. 26

Place: Meeting Hall 31
3111

00
15:30-17:
15:30-17:0

Chairman: Myung-Soon Jun

Speaker
Nobuyuki Morikawa

Title / Key words

Country

Scenario earthquake shaking maps in Japan

Japan

Method of using Geological data for PS HMs in JapanJapan

Hongjun Si

Strong motion attenuations for PSHMs in JapanJapan

Hiroki Azuma

An new PS HM Application in Smart phoneJapan

Hisanari Matuyama
Matuyama//
Nobuhiko Toyama

Korean Session
Nov. 27

Place: Meeting Hall 313111

10
8:300-10
10::00Chairman: Tao Xiaxin

Speaker

Title

Country

Myung-Soon Jun

Earthquake data used for the Seismic Hazard Map in
Korea

Korea

J.-S.Jeon

Current status of Seismic Hazard Map in Korea

Korea

G. Y. Kim

Seismic attenuation in the Korean Peninsula

Korea

T. Kang

Some studies on the 1952 earthquake near Pyungyang
Pyungyang,,
North Korean

Korea

Invited Presentation Session
Nov. 27

Place: Meeting Hall 311

2 :0 0
10:30-1
0-12

Chairman: Hiroyuki Fujiwara

Speaker

Title

Country/RegionR oger Borcherdt

Characterization of Seismic Site Response for Site-specific,
Regional, National, and Global Mapping of Seismic
HazardUSGS

Marco Pagani

Global Earthquake Model

Italy

58

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Japanese
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-KoreanChinese-Korean-Japaneseve Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next
Cooperati
Cooperative
Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
ChineseChinese,,Kuo-Fong Ma

Taiwan Earthquake Model

Hong H angping

Spatial Correlation of Ground Motions and its Impact on
Seismic Hazard Assessment/ Taojun Liu

Taipei
Canadaed Topic Session 1
Relat
RelatedNov. 27

Place: Meeting Room 303

5 :0 0
13:30-1:30-15Chairman: Myung-Soon Jun

Speaker

Title

Country

Ken Xiansheng Hao

Lessons from catastrophic earthquakes in China and
Japan

Japan

Shin
Aoi
ShinAoi

Strong motion observation networks in Japan

Japan

Hiromitsu Nakamura

Earthquake Early Warning in JapanJapan

Toshihiro Yamada

Risk management in JapanJapan

d Topic Session 2
RelateRelatedNov. 27

Place: Meeting Room 303

7:00
15:30-1:30-17Chairman: Tao Xiaxin

Speaker

Title

Country

Zhou Zhenghua

The possibility of a seismic zoning map for long period
ground motion

China

Zhao Jisheng

Seismic hazard analysis of an active fault

China

Lu Ming
Shini-ichi Kawai
Satoshi Shimizu

A Preliminary Study on the Near-Source Strong-Motion
Characteristics of the Great 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake
in China
National Research Institute for Earth Science & Disaster
Prevention (NIED)Oyo RMS cooperation

China
Japan
Japan

ssion 1Round Table Discu
Discussion
Nov. 28

Place: Meeting Room 303

0:00
8:30-1:30-10Chairman: Hiroyuki Fujiwara

59

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

The 2 nd Annual Meeting60

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

The 2nd Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative
Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the next Generation Map
Jeju, Korea 28 - 31 October 2012

Date

Time

Workshop registration in Seogwipo KAL HotelSun
28-Oct-2012

Contents

Afternoon

MorningPre-meeting by 3 countries PI
Joint Activity with East-Asia Earthquake Seminar
Opening & Photo for our Activity

Chinese Seismic Hazard Study :
14h –
16h

Joint Activity with East-Asia Earthquake Seminar·Tao Xiaxin, Two recent improvements on synthesis of strong groundmotion at near field· Tao Zhengru, Seismology based ground motion attenuation
relationship for the demonstration region of ChinaMon·Yao Yunsheng,

29-Oct-2012

Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project·Zhang Dongli, Determination of seismicity parameters for SHA of
Lanzhou region·Yuan Daoyang, Tectonic condition and its application in seismic hazard
assessment of Lanzhou region
16h -Chinese Seismic Hazard Study (Chair : M.S. Jun)
·Tao Xiaxin, Scenario earthquake – a link of probabilistic anddeterministic SHAs
·Li Xiaojun, New Seismic Zonation Map of China and the Case Study in
Gansu Province·Zhao Jisheng,

Tectonic mechanism of the great Wenchuan earthquake
Discussion & Remarks -Input for Seismic Hazard (Chair : H. Fujiwara)·Ken Xiansheng Hao, Should worst-case scenario of Mega-earthquake beconsidered in East Asian region, the lessons learnt from recently
destructive earthquakes
Tue
30-Oct-2012

Morning·Myung-Soon Jun,

Input data for Seismic Hazard in Korea·Kuo-Fong Ma, Possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Ryukyu
trench: event the historical records can't tell
·Toshihiro Yamada, Cyclic Pattern of Nankai Trough Earthquakes and theTask in its Modeling, -Primary Uncertainty in Earthquake
Hazard/Risk Model -.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

The 2nd Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative
Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the next Generation Map
Jeju, Korea 28 - 31 October 2012-

Discussion & Remarks-

Attenuation on Seismic Hazard (Chair : X. Tao)
·Nobuyuki Morikawa, A new ground motion prediction equation forJapan based on the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake records·Myung-Hyun Noh,

Practice on Estimating Beta & Mmax

·Hongjun Si, Next Generation Attenuation Model Project in Japan andRecent Progress·Hisanori Matuyama, Construction of the detail 3D velocity structure
models in Japan
Discussion & Remarks-

PSHA (Chair : M.S. Jun)
·Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Some considerations towards improvement of the
National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan after the Great Tohoku
Earthquake·Jeong-Soo Jeon,

Improvement of Seismic Hazard Map in Korea·Marco Pagani, International collaboration in the hazard component of
the Global Earthquake Model-

Discussion & Remarks-

Active Fault & Site Amplification on Seismic Hazard(Chair : H. Fujiwara)

Afternoon·Sung-Ja Choi,

Are there active faults in Korean Peninsula·Takayuki Hayashi, The utility of earthquake hazard information in
Japanese companies·Chang-Guk Sun,in Korea

Discussion on Seismic Site Response Characteristics·Jung-Ho Park, The development of K-SEIS(Korea Speedy Earthquake
Information System including EEW(Earthquake Early Warning)·Kuo-Liang Wen,

Site Amplification Study – Case of the Taipei Basin·Shinichi Kawai,

Mobile Applications using J-SHIS API·Hiromitsu Nakamura, A detection method for giant earthquake basedon counting a number of seismic intensity observation stations
Discussion & Remarks
Wed

Morning

31-Oct-2012

Afternoon

General Discussion
Future plan

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

63

The

1st W o r k s h o p

The

2nd W o r k s h o p

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

The first Workshop

64

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Workshop on
Seismic Hazard Assessment Issues in the island arc of Taiwan and Japan
Location, Guo-Ding Library Conference room 國鼎圖書管館, National Central University,
TaiwanJune 4, 2012

Time

TitlesConveners/Speakers

09:00 - 09:10

Opening address

Dean, Chien-Ying Wang

09:10 - 09:40

Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan after the 2011 Great East

Hiroyuki Fujiwara (NIED)Japan Earthquake
09:40 - 10:00

Earthquake probability mapping and hazard mitigation program

Kuo-Liang Wen (NCU)

in Taiwan
10:00 - 10:30

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in general issues

10:30 - 10:50

Coffee BreakKen Xiansheng Hao (NIED)

Conveners : Ruey-Juin Rau and Ken Xiansheng Hao
10:50 - 11:20

Strong motion observation networks in Japan

Shin Aoi (NIED)

11:20 - 11:40

Seismic network and earthquake rapid report in Taiwan

Peih-Lin Leu andNai-Chi Hsiao (CWB)

11:40 - 12:00

Compilation of Historical Earthquakes in Taiwan

Shih-Nan Cheng (CYU)

12:00 - 12:20

Active faults and seismic source identification in Taiwan

Bruce H. Shyu (NTU)

12:20 - 13:20

Lunch Break
Conveners : Shiann-Jong Lee and Shin Aoi

13:20 - 13:50

Construction of the detail 3D velocity structure

Hisanori Matuyama (NIED)

13:50 - 14:10

Seismic profiles from TAIGER project

Chien-Ying Wang (NCU)

14:10 - 14:30

3D velocity model of Taiwan: achievements and challenges

14:30 - 15:00

Long-period ground motion simulation of great Nankai Trough,Li Zhao (IES)
Takahiro Maeda (NIED)Japan, earthquakes
15:00 – 15:20

Coffee Break
Conveners : Li Zhao and Takahiro Maeda

15:20 – 15:50

Earthquake Early Warning in Japan

Hiromitsu Nakamura (NIED)

15:50 – 16:10

Developing of Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan

16:10 – 16:30

GPS observation and modeling in Taiwan

Ruey-Juin Rau (NCKU)

16 :30 – 16:50

Review the 1906 Meishan earthquake and active tectonics

Yuan-Hsi Lee (NCCU)

Yih-Min Wu (NTU)

around the Chia-Yi area
16:50 – 17:10

Investigation of the site effect in the Chia-Yi area, southwestern

Huey-Chu Huang (NCCU)

Taiwan17:10 – 17 :30

Building up Finite-Fault models for ground motion prediction
program of Taiwan: Problems and Challenges

18:00

Dinner Banquet

65

Kuo-Fong Ma (NCU)

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

June 5th, 2012

Time

TitlesSpeakers

Conveners: Kuo-Liang Wen and Hisanori Matuyama
09:00 - 09:20

Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for Taiwan

Po-Shen Lin (SinoTech)

09:20 - 09:40

Earthquake Hazard Map of Taiwan

Thomas Chin-Tung Cheng(Sino-Tech)

09:40 - 10:00

3D waveforms simulation for earthquakes and scenario events

10:00 - 10:30

Scenario earthquake shaking maps in Japan

10:30 - 10:50

Shiann-Jong Lee (IES)
Nobuyuki Morikawa (NIED)

Coffee Break
Conveners: Thomas Chin-Tung Cheng and Hiromitsu Nakamura

10:50 - 11:20

Synthesis of high-frequency ground motion for broad-bandstrong motion prediction in Kanto area

11:20 - 11:40

Synthesis of high-frequency ground motion using Empirical

Asako Iwaki (NIED)
Yin-Tung Yen (SinoTech)

Green’s Functions
11:40 - 12:00

Current Status and Future Vision of Taiwan Earthquake Loss

Chin-Hsun Yeh and Gee-Yu Liu

Estimation System(NCREE)
Conveners: Kuo-Fong Ma and Hiroyuki Fujiwara

12:00 - 12:30

Discussion

12:30 - 14:00

Lunch Break

14:00 -

Departure for Visiting NCREE(National Center of Research for Earthquake Engineering)

15:00 -

Visiting NCREE

17:00 -

Departure for Academia Sinica

June 6th, 2012
Gathering at 8:20AM in the lobby of Activity Center of Academia Sinica for field trip to 1999
Chi-Chi earthquake rupture sites and Earthquake Museum

66

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Field trip along Tsunami disaster areas
June 20, 2013 (Thu.)
0800        Bus leave at Sendai Kokusai(仙台国際) Hotel(0840〜～0900)

Pass by Namiwake(浪浪分) Shrine (Wakabayashi ward in Sendai city)

0900〜～1000

Yuriage(閖上) area in Natori(名取) city

1130〜～1400

Lunch in Matsushima(松島)1515〜～1545

Onagawa(⼥女女川) town

1615〜～1630

Okawa(⼤大川) elementary school in Ishinomaki(⽯石巻)1715

Arrive at Hotel Kanyo(観洋)June 21 (Fri.)

0820        Bus leave Hotel Kanyo

0830〜～0930

Minami-Sanriku(南三陸陸)-cho disaster prevention office1030〜～1050  “Ship No.18 Kyotokumaru” in Kesennuma(気仙沼) city

1130〜～1200    “Tsunami Experience Museum” in Kesennuma
1200〜～1230

Lunch (Lunch box)

1330〜～1415

Rikuzentakata(陸陸前⾼高⽥田) city, the lone miracle pine tree

1800

Arrive at Sendai  67

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Field trip map of tsunami swept areas of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake	 The two days field trip let attendance experience the destructive disasters from the Tohoku

earthquake and tsunami. The map only shows about 1/5 Pacific coast areas over 500 km. The most ofdamaged buildings, ships, cars and various litters were tidied up. However, the remained housefoundations, the desolated grounds traces of residential, schools, hospitals, downtown, and societies.

RikuzenTakata

KesenNuma

Minami-Sanriku Hotel Kanyo

Onagawa

Matsushimacity

Sendai city

Natori city
city

50 km
Sendai Airport

Photos from top to bottom: 1) Overturn seawalls at
Rikuzentaka, Iwate-ken; 2) Ship on land at Kesennuma; 3)
Swept pacific coast at Ishimaki; 4) Burning houses at
Wakabayashi, Miyagi-ken

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Namiwake shrine Namiwake shrine(浪浪分神社)
This shrine is a small wooden building with historical meaning in Wakabayashi(若林) ward, Sendai
City. Sendai Plain is a noted rice-producing region in Miyagi(宮城) Prefecture once produced
premium Sasanishiki and Hitomebore rice. But rice cultivation will be hampered for years to come due
to severe salt damage to the soil caused by the flooding. The tsunami destroyed the five-meter-highseawall and the protective inland pine forest. Only the foundations of houses remain in the residential
district.

Namiwake shrine(浪分神社) was built in
1703. According to anancient tradition, Godof sea calmed tsunamis(and protected theresidents).
It moved the present
location from 500 m
distanceofeasterncoast side in 1975.

The character “浪”
of “浪分神社” means“Tsunami”.

Somehistorians believe thatshrines in the coast area
were built as results oftsunami disasters since
many of the shrines
were constructed right
after

the

disasters.

There are shrines andtemples built on hills
andremained

intactfrom the tsunamis.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Yuriage (閖上) area in Natori(名取) cityMore than 700 people, out of 6,000 populations, were killed at Yuriage area in Natori city during
the Tohoku Earthquake. The death toll reached 911 and another 41 were missing in Natori city until
Jan. 31, 2013.
Yuriage had a dense residential but almost all houses located within 1km from coast were swept
away. The concrete foundations covered by grass remained the traces of houses. Just right after theearthquake occurring, crowded escapers by cars to western caused severe traffic jam in crossroads,
especiallyaroundthe

Yuriage Ohashi
Bridge.

Then,the worst casehappenedthattsunamis hit thetraffic jam.
	  Heavy
causalities were
under-suffered
while people
were evacuatingfrom a two-story public hall, an official tsunami-shelter, to three-story Yuriage junior high school.

Now the embankments of housing platform are planned in Yuriage as deep pink shown70

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Onagawa(⼥女女川) town
580 people were killed and 268 people were missing in Onagawa town during the Tohoku Earthquake.
The mortality rate 11.63% reached the highest in all of the flooded area (Survey by Shizuoka University).

Onagawa downtown has been inundated up to 20m-height at the secondary Tsunami wave as indicated in
red line and 4 people stayed at first floor were killed in Onagawa Hospital (building upper left hand in thephoto).
The police-office building was overturned and its pile foundation was pulled out due to combined effects ofliquefaction and tsunamis. Municipal of Onagawa town has a plan to leave the overturned building as reminder of thedisaster.

(The police-office building collapsed by liquefaction and tsunami)

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Okawa(⼤大川) Elementary School site*1
Okawa elementary school was located beside the Shinkitakami River, 5km upstream from outlet andcoast. Students and teachers evacuated out to the schoolyard when the tsunami reached the school. Of the
108 students 70 were killed and 4 missing, and of the 11 teachers 9 were killed and 1 missing.
	  One-month after the earthquake, Self-Defense Forces personnel were still scooping out rubble fromcollapsed classrooms in a continuing search for the missing students.
The evacuation procedure during tsunami is under lawsuit.

In front of the school, a memorial tower for the students has been built, Okawa Elementary School, Ishinomaki

City.

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Scene in the NHK MT-3D movie documentation

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Minami-Sanriku(南三陸陸)*2-cho (MSR)
Shizugawa(志津川) with a population of 18,000, main town of Minami-Sanriku-cho (MSR) is nearby
coast and surrounded by low hills and mountains as the Field Map (page F-2) shown. The towns people had
been alarmed by the 1995 Kobe Earthquake where the deaths toll reached 6,400. They built the MSR
disaster prevention office to withstand a large-scale temblor. However, total 890 victims were accounted
including 594 deaths and 226 missing in the Tohoku earthquake.
Everything in Shizugawa was inundated even this MSR disaster prevention office of three-story with
15.6-meter height (arrowin photos). “Evacuating!
tsunamiimminent

coming!!”broadcasted

over a public address
system by

Ms.

Miki

Endou, a 24 years old
town

employee,continued

urgingresidents to evacuate tohigh ground right up to
the moment the tsunami
engulfedthebuilding.

Only 10 people wereremains, but 41 people include Miki on the building were swept. Her room was at secondary story. Half
residential in the town were escaped. Almost nothing remains in the town except the red steel-frame. Thereis a debate on whether to remain the MSR disaster prevention office as a monument.

The moment was catched when Tsunami striked MSR disaster prevention office (To be Continuous)

2

Scene in the NHK MT-3D movie documentation

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Then suddenly wave height had been reaching legs where over 20 people grouped around on thehigher antenna, some on lower antenna, at the roof of the building

Only two~ people remained on the higher antenna, six~ on lower antenna

After the high waves passed away, only 10 people survived and 41 people were killed in the MSR disasterprevention center building74

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Kesennuma(気仙沼) *3
Kesennuma was one of Japan’s foremost fishing ports. The impact of the devastation here on thefishing and fishing boat industries is immeasurable. On the night of the earthquake and tsunami
disaster, much of the city’s Shishiori district was engulfed in flames. Many fishing vessels, including a
50-meter-long round-haul-net fishing boat, were lifted up and carried far inland.
Ship No.18 Kyotokumaru(共徳丸, 330t) swept about 500m (0.3 miles) from Kesennuma harbor toa rail station ShishioriKarakuwa(⿅鹿鹿折唐桑駅).
Currently, it has become a monument to show how harmful the Tsunami was.  

	 Ship No.18

Kyotokumaru
blockedstreetinfront of rail station
on March 2011

Ship

No.18

Kyotokumaru

still

stand on May 2013

3

Scene in the NHK MT-3D movie documentation

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Kesennuma(気仙沼) tsunami experience museum“Kesennuma tsunami experience museum” was particularly built for the theme of “tsunami” and it
is only place that has a virtual simulator of tsunami in Japan. About seven-minutes documentation
movie is made based on actual experience, and visitors can virtually feel how the day was like withimages, sound, vibration, air blasting, etc.

	  In March 2013, the exhibition content is switched to the Tohoku Earthquake from previously
displayed the Sanriku Tsunami.

Photos of the past Sanriku Tsunami in Meiji (1896) and in Showa eras (1933) are also displayed in
the facility. Many photos of Kesennuma city damaged by the Tohoku Earthquake have been added.

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Rikuzentakata(陸陸前⾼高⽥田) city*4This city of over 20,000 residents was destroyed by the tsunami. The total victims were 1,854
people including 1,556 killed and 298 missing. Many of them were drowned to death. Tsunami wave
height has reached at the top of the three-story civil hall designated as an evacuation building in thecity and people evacuated to the building were swallowed by Tsunami.
According to Professor Iwase (forensic medicine) in graduate school at Chiba University, many ofthe bodies found outside wore several layers of clothing and had bags packed with valuables (medical
insurance cards, and jewelries etc.), memorial goods (photo albums etc.), emergency food (chocolateetc.) and so on.
Also, the result of study by Motoyuki Ushiyama, associate professor at Center for Integrated
Research and Education of Natural Hazards in Shizuoka University has showed that the causality rate
exceeded 20% at a low elevation and highly-populated (1000 persons/km2) areas while the highest ratein the coast area was 11.13%.
Some of the survived residents in Rikuzentakata told that they had had a common belief that any
tsunami would not reach over Ofunato line, a few hundred meters away from the sea. The prevailingassumption is thought to have delayed evacuation and increased the causalities.

Takatamatsubara and Rikuzentakata city before the earthquake

4

Scene in the NHK MT-3D movie documentation

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The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

Flooded area and inundation heights (meters) in Rikuzentakata (By Rikuzentakata city HP)

Before the earthquake (Oct. 1982);

	
  	
  	
  	
  After the earthquake (March 13. 2011)78

The Joint Symposium of Seismic Hazard Assessment, Trust City Conference, Sendai, Japan, 17-19 June, 2013

In Takada-matsubara, approximately 70,000 of Japanese pine trees, one of Japan’s most famous
scenic beauty spots, were planted from Edo period (1667) for tide-water control before the earthquake.
They worked well at the times of Sanriku Tsunamis in Meiji (1896), in Showa eras (1933), and as wellas in the tsunamis caused by Chili earthquake. At the Tohoku earthquake, over 10m-height oftsunamis wiped them out. All of 70,000 pine trees that once stood were destroyed except for a lone
“miracle” pine. The survived pine tree is called “Kiseki(奇跡) no Ippon Matsu(一本松)*5” and has
become a symbol of recovery from the disaster in Rikuzentakata city.

The lone “miracle” pine tree lived for 18
months after the disaster before it died
due to saline soil conditions caused by thetsunami (top photo) and recreated aspermanent monument (right photo on
May 2013).

The memorial has been built in the site
Takada-matsubara, roadside station.

The joint symposium of seismic hazard assessment extends our deepest sympathies to those whohave suffered from this disaster, and offer our sincerest wishes for their rapid recovery.
5

Scene in the NHK MT-3D movie documentation

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