1st Joint Coordinating Committee

Developing Tsunami Damage Estimationand Mitigation Technologies
G2: Tsunami••••••••••

Dr. ShDShunichi
i hi KKoshimurahi(T(Tohokuh k U
Univ.,i TTsunamii engineering)ii )Mr. Erick Mas (Tohoku Univ., Tsunami engineering)
Mr. Cesar Jimenez (DHN,(DHN San Marcos Univ
Univ., Seismology and tsunamimodeling)
Mr. Bruno Adriano (CISMID, Tsunami modeling)
Ms. Sheila Yauri (IGP, Seismology)
Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID, Earthquake engineering)
Dr Gaku Shoji,Dr.
Shoji Mr.
Mr Yu Hiraki,Hiraki Mr
Mr. Yoshiyuki Ezura (Tsukuba UnivUniv.,
Structural and earthquake engineering)
Dr. Yuji Yagi (Tsukuba Univ., Seismology)
Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seismology and Tsunami modeling)Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa (TEPSCO, Tsunami modeling)

Project Plan

Objectives and Goals••••

To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to thePeruvian coast.
To develop practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru.
Implementation to the strategic plans for disaster mitigation ofPeruvian government
government.
Contributions to Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies.

Tsunami modeling technology
Tsunami Modeling techniques (TUNAMI(TUNAMI-codecode
to simulate tsunami generation, off-shore/nearshore propagation and coastal inundation)

3

Equipments donated by JICA
Year

Items

Quantity

Price

2010

Desktop workstation for tsunami modeling3$8,897.82

2010

Mobile workstation for survey
y and analysisy1$2,002.77

2010

Software for data analysis(Arc GIS and extensions)3lic.

$10,535.72

2010

High-resolution satellite image data

1set

¥1,519,105

What we have done so far• Transfer of tsunami numerical modeling technique• Post-tsunami field survey in Chile (2010 event)• Tsunami
Ti fieldfi ld survey iin CCamana, PPeru (2001 event)t)• Verification of tsunami numerical model and tsunami
source study (The 2001 Camana tsunami)• Tsunami risk assessment along the Peruvian coast• Mapping tsunami inundation in Callao, Lima
• Tsunami risk perception and evacuation in Callao,
Lima
5

Progress Report (Tsunami Propagation and Impacts)

Verification of tsunami numerical model andtsunami source study (2001 Camana tsunami)
Bruno Adriano@CISMID
8M
Measured(m)64K=0.98
κ=1.34

2002468

Computedp((m))
6Progress Report
Tsunami Propagation and Impacts
Review of historical earthquakes (1513 - 1959) and risk
analysis
Sheila Yauri@IGP

6cm/yr

Progress Report
TTsunamii Hazard
Hd MappingMiData Collection
Bathymetry

Topography

LanduseStreet &Evacuation zone

Progress Report
Tsunami Hazard Mapping
Potential tsunami source scenario [Pulido et al., 2011](G1)
Bruno Adriano@CISMID, Cesar Jimenez@DHN, Sheila Yauri@IGP

Progress Report
Tsunami Hazard Mapping
Bruno Adriano@CISMID, Cesar Jimenez@DHN
Source Model (Pulido et al., 2011)10

Bruno Adriano@CISMID

11

Progress Report
Tsunami Damage Mitigation Technology
Erick Mas@Tohoku Univ. Multi-agent simulation•Tsunami evacuation activities and strategic planning•Requirement
Rit off ttsunamii evacuation
tibuilding
b ildi•Casualty estimation•Public education

Human Resources Development

TTsunamii Training
T i i Course
CFi ld SurveyFieldSini ChileChil

Technical Discussion

Group Meeting

Coming Schedule for 2011-2012Tsunami Propagation/Inundation Mapping
Date

Topic

Organization

2011

Complete review of historical tsunami events anddetermine potential tsunami source scenarios forCallao, Lima

G1
IGP, DHN, Tohoku Univ., BRI

2011-2012

Developing archives of historical tsunami data,
propagation simulation, inundation mapping.

IGP, DHN, CISMID, Tohoku
Univ., BRI

Tsunami Damage/Loss Estimation
DateTopicOrganization

2011

Developing house/building inventory, census data for
Callao, Lima

G1, CISMID, Tohoku Univ.

2011-2012

Developing tsunami fragility curves and conducting
damage/loss estimation for Callao, Lima.

DHN, CISMID, Tohoku Univ.
Tsukuba Univ.

Tsunami Damage Mitigation Technology
DateTopicOrganization

2011-2012

Complete hazard map for Callao, Lima

CISMID, INDECI, Tohoku
Univ.

2011-2012

Strategic planning for tsunami evacuation by multi-agent
simulation

CISMID, INDECI, Tohoku
Univ.

Towards a new tsunami warning
system in Peru & Latin Americancountries
How the seismic source information is acquired (IGP)¾Depth¾Location
IGPg¾Magnitude
How tsunami forecasting is performed (DHN)
DHNg )¾Numerical model & Database ((Travel time,, height)
CISMID
INDECI¾Bathymetryo to g systemsyste¾Monitoring
How the information is delivered to the public¾Strategic plan for evacuation (INDECI)¾Public education (INDECI, CISMID)

Historical earthquakes
11 events (Mw>8) during 430

1877 Mw8.5 (Northan Chile), 2001 Mw8.4, 2007 Mw8.0

Tsunami vulnerability assessment
Earthquake scenarios
・ Mw8.0, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8
along the plate boundary
・ Fault parameters were determinedfollowing the modeling of 2001 tsunami

Numerical simulation
・Maximum tsunami height

Fragility function ofhhumanddeathth ratiotiGIS analysis

・Death ratio
・Population data・Potential tsunami exposure

Probability of exceedance ofPotential tsunami exposure

3．Risk assessment using the index of
Potential Tsunami Exposure■ Fragility function for death ratio
Population data (LandScan 2008)(Koshimura et al.,2009)µ■ Potential tsunami exposure

0°0'0"⎡ H − 5.37 ⎤Fr ( H ) = Φ ⎢⎥⎣ 0.72 ⎦PTE = Fr ( H ) × Population
10°0'0"SS■ t year probability of exceedance
using Poisson processt year probability of exceedance that PTE exceeds a value

λ is annual frequency
qy of occurrence

N [PTE ≥ a ] 1 1
λ=× ×Nn Tmm =1n∑

Population
20°0'0"SP[PTE ≥ a; t ] = 1 − exp(−λt )100

090°0'0"W

80°0'0"W

70°0'0"W