ACCIONES QUE CONTRIBUYEN A LAESTIMACIÓN
Ó DEL PELIGRO SÍSMICOÍ
Jorge Aguirre González, Alejandro Ramírez Gaitán, Miguel RodríguezGonzález, Ricardo Vázquez Rosas, Horacio Mijares Arellano y Orlando
Fabela RodríguezACTIONS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATION´ Probabilistic Approach« PGA Distribution espected for a given period of time
² Definition of seismogenic Zones² Ground Motion Atenuation Relation´ Deterministic Approach« Waveforms from a specific earthquake scenario.
² Details of Seismic Source (characterization)² Details of Path.
² Details of Site Effect.

Framework of predicting strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes ((IrikuraIrikura,, 2004)

1. Long-term forcasting of 2. Strong motion observation
earthquakes
and waveform inversion ofsource process
Active fault survey
Historical earthquake records
GPS observation
Seismic activity monitoring

Strong motion records
Teleseismic records
Broad-band records
Earthquake damage records

Macroscopic Microscopic(Outer)(Inner)

3. Investigation ofunderground structures
Reflection and/or refraction
profiling
Gravity survey
Boring, P-S velocity logging
Microtremor array measurement

Empirical approach
Theoretical
Stochastic

Rupture directivity

HybridEstimation of Green’s Function(Empirical Green’s Function)(Stochastic Green’s Function)(Theoretical Green’s Function)

Source modeling(Outer source parameters)(Inner source parameters)

Source modeling(Outer source parameters)(Inner source parameters)

Estimation of Green’s Function(Empirical Green’s Function)(Stochastic Green’s Function)(Theoretical Green’s Function)

4. Ground motion simulation for
scenario earthquakes

5. Setting seismic
design criteria

Ground motion waveform
PGA, PGV
Response spectraSeismic intensity

Building codes
Hospital, School,Bridge, Dam,
Nuclear power plants

Validation by historical records of earthquake damage

SITE EFFECTSSEISMICSOURCE

EARTHQUAKE STRONG GROUND MOTIONSSEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
INER and OUTER PARAMETERSSEISMIC WAVES PATH
GMAR
ATENUATIONLOCAL GROUND CONDITIONS
Site effects

SEISMIC SCENARIO

SOURCEPATH

SITE EFFECTS

SITE

HOW TO EVALUATE THE SITE EFFECTS?

HOW TO EVALUATE THE SITE EFFECTS?
By Knowing the physical characteristics of the surfitial layers:• Thickness• P wave propagation velocity• S wave propagation velocity• Density• Damping
Exploration methods:• Seismic Refraction• Crosshole• Downhole• Refletion• Methods that use microtremors• HVSR, ReMi, f-k, SPAC

Predominant
PeriodUso “tradicional” de Microtremores
HVSR =

f=1.2 HzVs

h=25 mh=50m
hh=100 m

Vs=120 m/s

Comp.Horiz.( f )Comp.Vert.( f )

Vs
f =4h
Vs=240 m/s

Vs=480 m/s

SPAC METHOD(SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION METHOD)´´´´

Propoused by Aki (1957).
Microtremors
Miini instrumentalil arrays.
Rayleigh waves phase velocity dispersion curves estimation, throughthe spatial autocorrelation.
Velocity structure * At least 3 stations.

From SAGEP 2003 (corporation OYO).

SPAC METHODMICROTREMORS ARRAY OBSERVATION**v1

Phase Vlocity*

SPAC method
v2v3
frequency (Hz)EXAMPLES OF MICROTREMOR ARRAYOBSERVATION USING TRIANGLESH/V USING GURALP FOR THE LARGEST ARRAY
Estation 01
Fo=0.16
14 times H/VEstation 02

Estation 03
Band pass filter 0.1-10 HzAll the array sizes
1000900800

Phase velocity (m/s)

700
SPAC (L=250m,Guralp)

600

SPAC (L=100m,SV1)
500

SPAC (L=75m,SV1)
SPAC (L=35m,SV1)

400

SPAC (L=15m,SV1)
SPAC (L=5m,SV1)

300

SPAC Linea (L=100m, GEODE)
200
10000123456Frequency (Hz)7891011COMPARISON WITH THE GEOLOGICAL MODELAPSIS: FREE SOFTWAREFUNCTION 1: CONTROL AND RECORDING OF
MOTIONS USING THE SEISMIC UNIT SR04

FUNCTION 2: READING AND DEPLOYMENT OF
A SAC FORMAT FILEFUNCTION 3: SPAC METOD PROCESSING(EQUILATERAL TRIANGLE)USER
MANUALMEXICO CITY 3D MODELPATH
ATENUATION

Temporary Michoacán Atenuation Network

Earthquakes Analyzed in This Study

Event

Date

LatitudeLongitude

DepthMw

Mo

No(d/m/y)

(°N)

(°W)

(Km)

131/05//2007

18.66-104.1411

5.1

5.62x1023

231/05//2008

18.2-103.495

4.5

7.08x1022

306/01/2007

18.72-104.0720

4.8

2.00x1022

417/06/2007

18.22-103.4412

4.45.01x1022

527/06/2007

18.75-104.078

4.3

3.55x1022

607/05/2007

18.19-103.4454.1

1.78x1022

707/08/2007

18.16-102.83

16

4.2

2.51x1022(dyne-cm)

Data AnalysisResamplingω 2 source model remotionQUALITY FACTOR VS FREQUENCYTHIS WORK COMPARED WITH OTHERSAMPLITUDE VS DISTANCEREGIONAL GEOLOGY OF MICHOACAN STATECONCLUSIONS(ATENUATION)• Temporary Network in Michoacán State• Seven eathquakes used ( 4.1 < Mw < 5.1 )• Distances from about 20 to 320 Km• Q = 105 f 0.74
• Smaller than previous relations for Guerrero• Neo
Neo--volcanic transtrans-mexican belt
• Risky to extrapolate the atenuation relationsSOURCETECOMAN EARTHQUAKE
22/I/2003 MW 7.523°N#ZAIIG

22°N

21°N20°N##CJIG

#19°N
19N

MOIG

MANZ

^ ^19/11/06 06:59:07.
22/01/03

02:06:34.5

18°N

#17°N

0100

ZIIG

200

Kilometers

106°W

105°W

104°W

103°W

102°W

101°W

100°W

99°W

98°W

EGF METHOD APLICATION#ZAIIG

080
Kilometers

160

Small Shock
19 nov 2006
Mw. 5.6

SOURCE MODEL

#CJIG

#
^MANZ

#MOIG

^ 22/01/03 02:06:34.5
19/11/06 06:59:07.

#

ZIIG

Mainshock21 enero 2003
Mw. 7.6

DEmpirical Green
Green´´s Function Method⎛ r ⎞⎟ F ( t − t ij ) * a ( t ).
A (t ) = ∑ ∑ ⎜)⎜⎟i = 1 j = 1 ⎝ rij ⎠Nx

Nw

Synthetic

Observed

Model Validation#ZAIIG

080
Kilometers

Synthetic

MODELO

MANZ

Observed

#MANZ

MANZ

CJIG

MOIG

CJIG
MODELO

MOIG

ZIIG

ZIIG

ZAIG

ZAIG

CJIG

#
^MANZ

#MOIG

^ 22/01/03 02:06:34.5
19/11/06 06:59:07.

#

ZIIG

The five stations used to obtainthe source model.
model.

160

SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION USINGEMPIRICAL GREEN´S FUNCTIONS METHOD
4.3
a

4.3b

23°N

#4.3c

4.3
d

ZAIIG

22°N

21°N

20°N

##CJIG

#19°N

MOIG

4.3eMANZ^ ^19/11/06 06:59:07.

22/01/03 02:06:34.5

18°N#017°N

100ZIIG

200

Kilometros

103°W

102°W

101°W

100°W

99°W

98°W

MANZ STATION

01020
Aceleration

020-203000-200200

60

NS Comp. cm

NS Comp. cm/s

200

1020
Displacement

40
20
030

01040
20
020-2030

0Velocity
80

600

60

400
200
0-200

40
20040
20
020-2030

Velocity

01020
Displacement50

100150200
Aceleration-2250

1050-5550

100

150200Aceleration

050-550100

150
200
Aceleration

150
200
Aceleration

0-0.550250

100150200Velocity

0.50-0.550250100150200
Displacement

2500150200
Aceleration

100150200
Displacement

250100150200
Displacement

2500.50.50-0.550

250

NS Comp. cm

NS Comp. cm/s

1100150200
Velocity

0-0.550250

110100150200Aceleration

2500.5Z Comp. cm

Z Comp. cm/s

2-150

0.5

1100

EW Comp. cm
100150200
Velocity

250050100150200
Velocity

50

100

150200
Displacement

25050

100150200
Displacement

250

50

100150200
Displacement

250

10250

20-2250

12-15050

2-225010EW Comp. cmObserved

1000-1-1030

Synthetic

1-1501-1

ZAIG STATION
2010-1EW Comp. cm/s
E10EW Comp. cm/s/s
E0NS Comp. cm/s/s

30

Z Comp. cm/s/s

1020Aceleration-5215-200Observed

0-1030Z Comp. cm/s/s

800

1020Displacement

60
Z Comp. cm

1020Aceleration

515-20200Synthetic

10-10306080400

Z Comp. cm/s

NS Comp. cm/s/s
N
Z Comp. cm/s/s

10Velocity

600-4000-2030800-400020

NS Comp. cm/s
N0-200201540Z Comp. cm/s

Observed

40

NS Comp. cm/s/s
N20060EW Comp. cm/s/s

400

EW Comp. cm

600 Synthetic-4006080
EW Comp. cm/s

EW Comp. cm/s/s

800

MOIG STATIONNS Comp. cm104°W

Z Comp. cm105°W

EW Comp. cm/s

106°W

0.50-0.5
50100

150
200
Velocity

2500-0.55050100

150
200
Velocity

250

FOURIER SPECTRA STATION MANZ (3 SMGA)
GREEN – SYNTETICS
BLUE - OBSERVED
Aceleración

5Sintético azul
Observado rojo
001011010
EW Com
mp. [cm]

0100105510NS Comp. [cm]00101010010110010555011010frecuencia [Hz]10Z Comp. [cm]

Z Comp. [cm/s]

Z Comp. [cm/s/s]

010frecuencia [Hz]1010110frecuencia [Hz]1010frecuencia [Hz]

510

11010
NS Comp. [cm/s]

NS Comp. [cm/s/s]

010frecuencia [Hz]100010110frecuencia [Hz]10Desplazamiento

510EW Com
mp. [cm/s]

EW Compp. [cm/s/s]

Velocidad

5100100

11010
frecuencia [Hz]010011010frecuencia [Hz]COMPARISON WITH THE DISLOCATIONMODEL OBTAINED BY YAGI ET AL. (2004).

Estaciones regionales y locales donde se registro el sismo de 19/11/06##Stations where we simulate
the mainshock using thesource model

Estaciones acelerograficas del IINGEN de la UNAM
Estaciones de banda ancha del Servicio Sismologico Nacional#ZAIIG#O
OceanoPacifico
P ifi

#

#
# #####
##
#

#
#
#
#
###

#

MANZ

100

• 2 RESCO

CDGU

#

##
# SJAL#200• 4 SSN

MOIG

#

CJIG0

• 16 RTC y R Tecomán

GDLC#Kilometros
104°30'0"W• 9 IINGEN

MARU

#CALE

#UNIO

104°0'0"W

103°30'0####

Arreglo de sismografos de banda corta Tecomán.
Estaciones de RESCO
Estaciones del IINGEN de la UNAM###EZACHA CEN##CAMPNARSANTAPEMACE
SE5

## ##

#COL

#BOMB

CUHA

#PROCOR15#

TECOMAN

INDC

#CAMP

###Oceano Pacifico

015

18 54 0 N

19 0 0 N#

103°51'0"W

EZ5COMA

CIHU##103°52'0"W# Arreglo de sismografos de banda corta Tecomán.

Acelerografos de la Red Temporal CosteraCOLL

103°53'0"W

Estaciones locales donde se aplico el modelo.

18 555 0 N

19 30 0 N

Estaciones locales donde se aplico el modelo.

ELTB, ECOJU# # TXPA### CAMP
##PAR
#BOMB
#INDC
#30##CEOR

TXPA

0Kilometros

0.5Kilometros

Oceano Pacifico

Simulations for stacions at rock site within
the Colima StateNS Component cm/s/s

01020

EW Component cm/s/s

Z Component cm/s/s

225.3 COL

190.2 COL

59 COL169.1 CEN

229.7 CEN

129.5 CEN

98.6 CIHU

110.9 CIHU

85.3 CIHU

120 COJU

216 COJU

111.3 COJU

116.9 COLL

132.7 COLL

80.4 COLL

114.3 EZ5

76.5 EZ558.4 EZ5349.1 MACE

276.8 MACE

149.4 MACE

373.9 SE5348.9 SE5128.4 SE5307 TAPE

335.4 TAPE

164.6 TAPE

30405001020304050010203040501Simulation for stations soil within Colima StateNS Component cm/s/s

01020

EW Component cm/s/s

Z Component cm/s/s

220 BA5171.9 BA5130.7 BA5228.5 BOMB

171.2 BOMB

159.9 BOMB

219.7 CAM

260.7 CAM

302.2 CAM

275.5 CAMP

240.5 CAMP

250 CAMP

140.9 CEOR

110.3 CEOR

75.8 CEOR

133 CHA

83.6 CHA

94.6 CHA

92.3 COMA

132.9 COMA

88.1 COMA

376.1 CUHA

390.9 CUHA

223.7 CUHA

123.3 EZA

231.8 EZA

126.4 EZA

226.8 INEC

211.6 INEC

203.4 INEC

352.9 MANZ

375.2 MANZ

163.5 MANZ

551.8 NAR

530 NAR215 NAR256.3 PAR

232.2 PAR

172.5 PAR

200.6 PROCO

407.1 PROCO

121 PROCO

69.1 R15

89.5 R15

69.4 R15

176.4 TXPN

302 TXPN

358.2 TXPN

3040500102030

405001020304050

Simulation for stations outside of Colima
NS Componente cm/s/s

050

EW Componente cm/s/s

Z Componente cm/s/s

10.5 CIIG

14.2 CIIG

9.1 CIIG

11.3 GUAD

15.8 GUAD15.2 GUAD

36.3 GZMN

26.9 GZMN

23.5 GZMN

174.6 LIMA

159.9 LIMA

151.6 LIMA

36 MARU

34.7 MARU

24.4 MARU

5.6 MOIG

4.2 MOIG

3.3 MOIG

1 ZAIG

0.5 ZAIG

0.9 ZAIG

1.8 ZIIG

2 ZIIG

2 ZIIG

100150200050

100

150200050100150200

COMPARISON WITHTWO ATENUATION RELATIONS
Peak acceleration cm
m/s/s

10000

1000(c)Hipocentral dis tanc e (Km)
1000

10010(d)Hipocentral
distance (Km )100101GMPE

1Simulationrock

GMPE

Simulationsoil

Simulation rock

0Simulation soil

10010100Ordaz et al.(1989)

106°0'0"W

100

1000

Distance km)(1000

Garcia et al. (2005)

104°0'0"W

102°0'0"WI#

I

22°0'0""N

ZAIG

100°0'0"W

I
II-III

20°0'0"N

IV
V
CJIG

V#MOIGIV

MANZ

II-III#II-III

VI
VIII#

VIII

CUP5

VII

18°0'0"N

VIII

085
Kilometers

170

CALE

IV#

UNIO

II-III#ZIIG

II-III#II-IIIII-III#

106°0'0"W

104°0'0"W

102°0'0"W

100°0'0"W

22°0'00"N

Singh et al. (2003)
This study
Zobin and Pizano Silva (2008)

20°0'0"N

IV

V
VI
V
VII

18°0'0"N

VI

VII
VIII
VII
VI

0100200

V

KilometersIV

CONCLUSIONS (SOURCE)

Succesfull aplication of EGFM

High frequency model that are of interest toearthquake engineeringWaveform simulation at sites where there wasno seismic station during the Tecománearthquake..
earthquake

Model aplication
aplication..
1.

Acceleration,, Velocity ,and displacement
Acceleration
waveforms, Fourier spectra,
waveforms,spectra, PGA, IMM.

2.

We can aplied our knowledge od the seismic
source for the modeling of futureearthquakes..
earthquakes