Taiwan Earthquake Model
Summary of PSHA activities in TEM

Kuo-Fong Ma

馬國鳳 教授
1Department of Earth Sciences,National Central University

Hazard (PSHA)

Risk(faulting & shaking)(deaths & damage)Social Impact(change actions)

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• 1906 Meishan EarthquakeScenario

TEM Hazard Components(2012-2014, PSHA2014 & 1906 Meishan Earthquake Scenario)

一、Hazard

中央大學
NCU

馬國鳳 教授K.-F. Ma

成功大學
NCKU

饒瑞鈞 教授R.-J. Rau

中正大學
NCCU李元希教授
Y.-S. Lee台灣大學NTU

徐澔德 副教授
Bruce Shyu

中央研究院
IES, AS李憲忠 副研究員
S.-J. Lee

中興顧問社 鄭錦桐 博士
Sino-TechThomas Cheng溫國樑 教授K.-L.Wen詹忠翰 博士C.H. Chan

清雲大學 鄭世楠 副教授
CYU S.N. Cheng
林伯伸 博士 顏銀桐 博士
P.-S. Lin and Y.-T. Yen

PSHA-Taiwan Exercise from GEM OpenQuake
Model from Cheng et al., (2005)

Dr. ChanTalk at 2A-5
June 184

Earthquake Source Model : Bruce Shyu
• Taiwan Earthquake Model
II TEM-NIED Session,
June 19th
PSHA-Earthquake Source Model-Area Source-Historical Earthquakes
using historical seismograms
Location and Focal mechanism

24Prof. Shyu
Active FaultsFault Name
Shanchiao fault
Shuanglienpo structure
Yangmei fault
Hukou fault
fengshan river strike-slip structure
Hsinchu fault
Hsincheng fault
Hsinchu frontal structure
Touhuanping structure
Miaoli frontal structure
Tunglo structure
east Miaoli structure
Shihtan fault
Sanyi fault
Tuntzuchiao fault
Changhua fault
Chelungpu fault
Tamaopu - Shuangtung fault
Chiuchiungkeng fault
Meishan fault
Chiayi frontal structure
Muchiliao - Liuchia fault
Chungchou fault
Hsinhua fault
Houchiali fault
Chishan fault
Hsiaokangshan fault
Kaoping River structure
Chaochou fault
Hengchun fault
Hengchun offshore structure
Milun fault
Longitudinal Valley fault
Central Range fault
Luyeh fault
Taimali coastline structure
Northern Ilan structureSouthern Ilan structure

6Hukou Fault
湖口斷層Vertical offset: 80-100 m
Age: 100-500 ka→Uplift rate: 0.16-1 mm/yr
0.825±0.075 (沈淑敏等,2005; 陳于高等, 2006)
Fault dip (°): 30→ Slip rate: 0.32-2 mm/yr
Displacement (m): 1.33
→Recurrence interval: 670-4160 yr

Fault type: reverse faultLength (km): 25.8
Fault dip (°): 30
Depth (km): 15
Width (km): 30
Area (km2): 774
Mw: 6.93
M0 (1025 dyne-cm): 30.90
Displacement (m): 1.33
Slip rate (mm/yr): 1.16±0.84
Recurrence interval (yr): 670-4160

7

2002-2012 GPS velocity field

Prof. Rau
Geodetic Strain
8

Instrumentally
Determined
Earthquake

Historical Earthquakes (TEM Website)
http://tec.earth.sinica.edu.tw/TEM/index.php
1600

1700

1800

1624年
1661年
1683年
荷蘭登陸 鄭成功登陸 清廷統治台灣

1900

1895年
日本統治台灣

Historical Earthquakes

2000

1895年
台灣光復

1897/12
Seismograph installedHistorical Seismograms
Prof. S.-N. Cheng
Historical andInstrument quakes

1960 WWSSN
WWSSN
High-Quality Seismograms

1973 TTSN

TTSN
1991 CWBSN
CWBSN
9(original)(numbered)歷史地震波形紀錄發生變形、硬化、潮濕、發霉、蛀蟲、破損情形。

(refined)(scanned)(calibrated)

原始紀錄進行除濕、平整、去霉、除虫、修補等工作(archived)歷史地震波形紀錄處理程序
微縮影片先還原為原尺寸再(Cheng et al., POSTER) 以300 dpi解析度進行數化

10

Historical Damaging Earthquakes in Taiwan since 1700s
Relative quiet in seismicity(3 M6+)

20130327 M6.1
20130602 M6.3
19160828 M6.8
19161115 M6.2
19170105 M6.2

Scenario- Prof. Lee

Prof. MaRe-visit ofHistorical
Earthquakes

Modelingof 1920
Earthquake
by Dr. Yen

Comparison of modern events records to 1916 event
Simulated Omori records of Japan F-net TTO station for SN component
1916 Omori Instrument Reponse T=30sec, V=20 h=0.2
20000610 ML6.7

20130327 ML6.1

Surface-

20130602 ML6.3
P-STime, sec

19160828 M6.8 Hongo Omori SN

* First-order dislocation model* Dip : 10o* Length : 70 km* Depth : 13 km
Dr. Yen* Mw 7.5-8.7

Modeling* location of high probability area
* S-P arrival time
* Dip : 20o* depth : 4 to 20 km* Mw : 7.7±0.2(Thuenissen et al., 2010)(Hsu et al., 2012)13Dr. Lin
Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Crustal GMPE performance
GMPEs

Acronym

SD

Mean

LH

LLH

EDR

Wu et al.(2001)

WU20010.73660.30420.58241.60590.9966

NCREE (2004) Campbell'sform

CB

0.76190.5476

0.52451.65471.1796

Joyner and Boore's form

JB

0.7281

0.63110.4802

1.5892

1.3160Kanai's form

JR

0.7711

0.09500.6064

1.67200.9651

Japan Rock Site's formKA

0.67550.30130.62211.4811

0.9963

Chang et al.(2001)

CH20010.66520.1462

0.66191.45880.9881

Liu and Tsai (2005)

LT20050.68800.1742

0.63471.5074

0.9510Tsai et al. (2006)

TS20060.68930.14110.64121.51010.8849NCREE (2011)

NCREE20110.73920.23930.61251.6111

0.9582Lin et al.(2011)

Lin20110.71650.3396

0.5852

1.56601.0095Lin (2009)

PS20090.6419-0.0227

0.66601.40750.8421Sinotech (2011)

TNGA

0.65660.00530.65661.44010.8306

Subduction GMPE performance Dr. Lin (GMPE)
GMPEs

Acronym

SD

Mean

LH

LLH

EDR

Youngs et al.(1997)

YG19970.8025-1.1229

0.26911.7296

1.9960Si and Midorikawa(1999)

SM19990.8061-1.06310.28981.73611.8795

Chang et al.(2001)

CH2001D

0.7146-0.4367

0.5652

1.56231.1483

Atkinson and Boore(2003)

AB20031.48370.74910.29032.61622.0357

Kanno et al. (2006)

Kan2006

0.8938-0.8347

0.37361.88501.5882

Lin and Lee (2008)

LL20080.7814-0.3311

0.58281.6912

1.1014Sinotech(2011)TNGA.Sub

0.6422

0.06680.67381.40820.8985

Empirical Site Correction for
Ground Motion Simulation

Prof. Wen
Site Amplification

1906 Meishan Earthquake
Scenario

Prof. Lee
1906 Meishan eartqhuake-Meishan fault-Compilation of the subsurface
structure, seismic-reflection,
logging, micro-temors-Simulation (Dr. Lee, and Dr. Yen)
-Literature data (Prof. Cheng)=>Validation the TEM Exercise
HAZARD, RISK, SOCIAL IMPACT

Hazard (PSHA)

Risk(faulting & shaking)(deaths & damage)Social Impact(change actions)• 1906 Meishan Earthquake

Scenario

THANK YOU!