㻵㼚㼠㼑㼞㼚㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㼍㼘㻌㻿㼥㼙㼜㼛㼟㼕㼡㼙㻌㼛㼚㻌㻱㼍㼞㼠㼔㼝㼡㼍㼗㼑㻌㻒㻌㼀㼟㼡㼚㼍㼙㼕㻌㻰㼕㼟㼍㼟㼠㼑㼞㻌㻾㼑㼐㼡㼏㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌䇵㻌㻸㼑㼍㼞㼚㼕㼚㼓㻌㼒㼞㼛㼙㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㻳㼞㼑㼍㼠㻌㻱㼍㼟㼠㻌㻶㼍㼜㼍㼚㻌㻱㼍㼞㼠㼔㼝㼡㼍㼗㼑㻌㻙㻌㻹㼍㼞㼏㼔㻌㻝㻠㻙㻝㻡㻘㻌㻞㻜㻝㻞㻘㻌㻿㼑㼚㼐㼍㼕㻘㻌㻶㼍㼜㼍㼚㻌Giant earthquakes and strong
ground motions in South America
Nelson E. 㻌Pulido H.㻌

㻌Contents••••

Collaborators䠖Yuji Yagi (U. Tsukuba), Mohamed Chlieh (U. NiceSophia, France), Hernando Tavera (IGP, Perú), Zenón Aguilar (UNI,Perú), Shoichi Nakai, Toru Sekiguchi, Diana Calderón, Fumio
Yamazaki (U. Chiba), Hugo Perfettini (U. Joseph Fourier, France),
Naoki Nishimura (U. Tsukuba), and Hiroyuki Kumagai (NIED)•Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Maule
earthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation for
the Central Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.

1

Great historical megathrust earthquakes inSouth America

Contents•••••

2

Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Maule
earthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation forCentral Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.
35.5cm/y
6.5 cm/y
6.5cm/y7.0cm/yEcuadorColombia

4

Rupture process of the 2010/2/27
Maule earthquake, Chile [Mw=8.7]
㻰㼍㼠㼍㻌•㻼㻌㼣㼍㼢㼑㼒㼛㼞㼙㼟䠄㻟㻤㻌㼟㼠㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㼟䠅㻌•㻭㼚㼠㼕㻙㼍㼘㼕㼍㼟㻘㻌㻮㼡㼠㼠㼑㼞㼣㼛㼞㼠㼔㻌㼘㼛㼣㼜㼍㼟㼟㻌㼒㼕㼘㼠㼑㼞㻌•㻿㼡㼎㼒㼍㼡㼘㼠㻌㼟㼕㼦㼑㻦㻌㻝㻤㼤㻝㻤㼗㼙㻞㻌•㼂㼑㼘㼛㼏㼕㼠㼥㻌㼙㼛㼐㼑㼘㻌 㻮㼛㼔㼙㻌㼑㼠㻌㼍㼘㻚㻌㼇㻞㻜㻜㻞㼉㻌•㻳㼑㼛㼐㼑㼠㼕㼏㻌㼐㼍㼠㼍䠄㻞㻤㻌㼟㼕㼠㼑㼟䠅㻌 㻲㼍㼞㼕㼍㼟㻌㼑㼠㻌㼍㼘㻚㻌㼇㻞㻜㻝㻜㼉㻌•㻿㼠㼞㼛㼚㼓㻌㼙㼛㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼞㼐㻌㼍㼠㻌㻯㼛㼚㼏㼑㼜㼏㼕㽾㼚㻌㻌㻹㼑㼠㼔㼛㼐㻌

Tectonic setting inSouth America andHistorical earthquakes(Vigny 2003, 2010,Melnik et al. 2009 )•㻭㻮㻵㻯㻌㼕㼚㼢㼑㼞㼟㼕㼛㼚㻌㼕㼚㼏㼘㼡㼐㼕㼚㼓㻌㼑㼟㼠㼕㼙㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼑㼞㼞㼛㼞㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㻳㼞㼑㼑㼚䇻㼟㻌㼒㼡㼚㼏㼠㼕㼛㼚㼟㻘㻌㼅㼍㼓㼕㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㻲㼡㼗㼡㼔㼍㼠㼍㻌㼇㻞㻜㻝㻝㼉㻌•㻱㼘㼍㼟㼠㼕㼏㻌㼐㼕㼟㼘㼛㼏㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼙㼛㼐㼑㼘㻌 㻻㼗㼍㼐㼍㻌㼇㻝㻥㻥㻞㼉㻌㻌

5

Rupture process of the 2010/2/27
Maule earthquake, Chile [Mw=8.7]

Rupture velocity 2.8km/s

6Estimation of the permanent displacement at
Concepción from a strong motion record andcomparison with a 1Hz-䠣䠬䠯 record

1Hz-cGPS [CONZ]
7

Strong motion
Concepción [CCSP]
8

2010 Maule(Chile) [Mw 8.7]

2011 Tohoku-oki[Mw 9.0]

Maule Earthquake coseismic slip andplate coupling1960 Valdivia(Chile) [Mw 9.5]

Moreno etal. 2009

Contour lines
correspond to platecoupling, Moreno etal. [2010]

Pulido et al.
EPS, 2011
Suzuki et al. 2011

Comparison of slip modelsof megathrust earthquakes
9Contents
••
•
•
•

10

Historical earthquakes in Peru

Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Mauleearthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation forCentral Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.
11

Adapted from Okal et al (2006)

1940 05 24 Huacho, M8.2
1942 08 24 San Juan, M8.0
1966 10 17 Barranca, M8.1
1974 10 03 Lima, M8.1
1996 02 21 Chimbote, M7.5
2001 06 23 Atico, M8.4
2007 08 15 Pisco, M8.0

Sladen et al. (2010)12

Slip deficit rate for Peru and Northern Chileand scenario earthquake for Central Peru

GPS campaigns in Peru-Northern Chile• 87 surveyedsites (19932003) from Lat.
11ºS to Lat.
24ºS.
• Including
measurementsfrom ocean
bottom GPS
off-shore Lima

(Chlieh et al. 2011)• Slip deficit since 1746 (265 years)• Maximum slip is 15 m
• Magnitude Mw~8.9, neglecting the
20 century earthquake sequence(Pulido et al. 2011)

Kendrick et al. (2001), Chlieh et al. (2004), Gagnon et al. (2005)
13

Construction of broadband wavenumber
slip (Pulido et al. 2011)

C(x)*vo

S(x)=C(x) * vo * t
S(x): slip, t : elapsed time

14

Comparison of PSD of scenario slip and PSDof Maule earthquake slip (Pulido et al. 2011)

PSD of geodetic scenario slip, and Von
Karman PSD function[Mw 8.9][Mw 8.9]• Correlation length along strike: as = 110 km• Correlation length along dip: ad = 40 km• Hurst exponent: H=1.0• ks and kd are wavenumbers along strike and dip[Pulido et al. 2011]1516

Contents
•
•
•
•
•

Source model of the 2007/8/15 Pisco, Peru
earthquake [Mw=8.0]㻌 䠄Sladen et. al 2010)

Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Mauleearthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation forCentral Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.

Asperity 1

Asperity 2

17Strong motion records Pisco earthquake䠄IGP)
NNA

Focal mechanism, Source timefunction, Slip distribution, Strike318, Dip 20, Rake 63, Mw=8.0

Slip distribution

18

Strong motion simulation method[Pulido et al. 2004, 2007, 2012]

MAY

Asperity 1

Asperity 2PCNAij ( f )Strong motion recordings during
the 2007 Pisco earthquake (IGP)

Source Process of the 2007 Piscoearthquake (Sladen et. al. 2010).
19Rpij (T , I , f ) M 0 S ( f , 'V i )G( f )eSfRij Q ( f ) E

4SUE Rij
3Acceleration Fourier Spectra at the i㻌
subfault and㻌 j station
20

P( f , f max )Radiation pattern fromasperity 1 (SH waves)㻌

Radiation pattern fromasperity 2 (SH waves)㻌

NNAMAY

Observed and simulated strong motionsimulation at 䠬䠟䠪䠄Pulido et al. 2011䠅
䠄data from IGP㸧
Asperity 2
21Contents•NNA••PiscoPCN••

23PCN22

Strong motion simulation at Pisco city from thePisco earthquake䠄䠲s䠙150m/s䠅㻌 MAY

Asperity 1

Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Maule
earthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation forCentral Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.
24

Field survey of the 2010 Maule earthquake㻌
Strong Motion, Geotechnical explorations

Viña del Mar
5/1
Santiago
4/27

Dichato 4/29
4/29
Concepción
pTalcahuano 4/28
04/30

Observed strong motion during the 2010 Maule earthquake㻌㻺㼑㼘㼟㼛㼚㻌 㻼㼡㼘㼕㼐㼛䠄㻺㻵㻱㻰䠅㻌㼀㼛㼞㼡㻌㻿㼑㼗㼕㼓㼡㼏㼔㼕㻌䠄㻯㼔㼕㼎㼍㻌㼁㼚㼕㼢㼑㼞㼟㼕㼠㼥䠅㻌㻳㼍㼗㼡㻌㻿㼔㼛㼖㼕㻌䠄㼀㼟㼡㼗㼡㼎㼍㻌㼁㼚㼕㼢㼑㼞㼟㼕㼠㼥䠅㻌㻶㼛㼞㼓㼑㻌㻭㼘㼢㼍䠄㼁㻺㻵䠅㻌㻲㼑㼞㼚㼍㼚㼐㼛㻌㻸㽬㼦㼍㼞㼑㼟䠄㻯㻵㻿㻹㻵㻰䠅㻌

100 km㻿㼔㼛㼖㼕㻌 㻌 㻼㼡㼘㼕㼐㼛㻌㻌㻭㼘㼢㼍㻌㻌㻸㽬㼦㼍㼞㼑㼟㻌㻿㼑㼗㼕㼓㼡㼏㼔㼕
25

26

Edificio Salas 1343
(Near the damaged building)

Microtremors Measurements atConcepción city
Colegio María Inmaculada

Colegio San Pedro(Near the CCCP strong motion
accelerograph at Concepción)27(Near a temporal strongmotion station)

Colegio Inmaculada Concepción

Near an analogue strong
motion station

Microzonation map (Ramírez28and Villalobos 2009)

Salas 1343 building
Heavily damaged buildingat Concepción city during
the 2010 Maule
earthquake

Geological Map of Santiago (Valenzuela 1978)

Heavily damaged building

The soil surrounding thedamaged building exhibit alarge deformation suggesting abuilding rocking around its longaxis.
2930
Heavily damaged building

Array microtremors measurements in Lima, and installationof a strong motion network [SATREPS project]

Contents•••••

Historical Mega-earthquakes of South America
and the source model of the 2010/2/27 Mauleearthquake, Chile (Mw 8.7).
Earthquake scenarios for Central Andes (Peru).
Strong ground motion simulation of the2007/8/15 Pisco earthquake, Peru.
Site effects characteristics and strong groundmotions during the 2010 Maule earthquake.
Preliminary results strong motion simulation for
the Central Andes, Lima scenario earthquake.

Small Arrays
Large Arrays
New Seismometers

Observation sites in Lima31Dispersion curve and estimated Vs profile

Velocity models
obtained frommicrotremors arraysin Lima and their 1Dtransfer functions(Calderón et al.
2012)

33

Conclusive remarks
•
•

•
•

Our source model of the 2010/2/27 Maule earthquake,
Chile (Mw 8.7), suggests a significant correlation
between coseismic slip and plate coupling distribution.
Our results based on geodetic and historicalearthquakes data, indicate that an earthquake ofmagnitude Mw 8.9 is likely to occur in the Central
Andes region (Peru).
Observed and simulated strong ground motions of the2007 Pisco earthquake, Peru, indicate a significant
contribution from a complex source rupture process.
We obtained preliminary results of the strong motion
simulation in Lima for a scenario earthquake.
35

Simulated strong ground Simulated strong groundmotion at Callao (seismic motion at Callao includingbedrock)site effect34