A08

Research Abstracts on Spatial Information Science
CSIS DAYS 2015

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Tsunami Vertical Evacuation:
A Case Study of the Shizuoka Metropolitan Area
Gerasimos Voulgaris
University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Spatial Information Science
Email: <gvsquall@gmail.com> Web: <http://giswin.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp/sis/en/>(1) Introduction: The city of Shizuoka is located incentral Japan and has a population of approximately
690,000 people. It faces the Nankai through whichis known for large earthquakes of M 8 or higher.
There is a strong tsunami presence in the area bothin historic times and also during the Holocene. This
makes safe evacuation of local residents during atsunami, a critical component that reduces life loss.
(2) Approach: Given the tsunami presence in the area,
a number of different tsunami scenarios can beconsidered as possible to affect Shizuoka City.
Under those scenarios, it is imperative to use GIS
methods to find vertical evacuation sites as many as
possible within the existing urban structure andwithin the tsunami flood zones.
(3) Method: Four tsunami scenarios are utilized. Thesescenarios have run-ups of 34, 20, 10 and 5 meters.
For each of these scenarios the inundation ratio forevery building that is affected is calculated.
Buildings with 50% or less inundation is consideredpotential evacuation sites in case of a tsunami.
(4) Temporal building population estimation:
Buildings that are not flooded can be heavily
populated. However, the population of a building is
not static within a day. By using the 2001 person trip
data for the city of Shizuoka this study is able toestimate the population of buildings in the study
area and how it varies over the course of 24 hours ofa day. This allows for identification of times wherebuildings can accept less or more people that areevacuating.
(5) Synthesis: Buildings that are not flooded areinvestigated as per their population in different
times of the day. Criteria are introduced for different
tsunami severities and the amount of people that canbe accepted for evacuation is estimated based on theintroduced criteria(6) Findings: The inundation ratio analysis shows
1,643 potential evacuation sites in the 5 m run-up
scenario, 20,145 sites in the 10 m run-up scenario,
10,426 sites in the 20 m scenario, and 3,204 sites in
the worst case 34 m run up scenario. By allocating 6
m3 per person the morning hours show the highest
capacity to accept people in buildings withmaximums of 304,747 people for the 5 m run-up
scenario, 873,537 people for the 10 m scenario,
1,441,496 people for the 20 m scenario, and 932,657
people for the 34 m run-up scenario. The spatial
distribution of these potential evacuation sites isvariable per tsunami scenario. For example, the 10m run-up scenario has five clusters of potential
evacuation sites while in the worst case 34 m run-up
scenario, the Central Business District (CBD) ofShizuoka is the lone cluster with potential
evacuation sites able to accept people．

Figure 1： Building population estimation at 7AM (p7am) for potential evacuationsites over a 20m run-up inundation scenario for the City of Shizuoka. Basemap
source: Bing- 14 -