International Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Latin America
JST/JICA, March 7, 2014 , Tokyo

Earthquake activity and Seismic
hazard in Latin America
Nelson Pulido
National Research Institute for Earth Science and DisasterPrevention
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Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, LimaPerú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima2Tectonic setting in Latin America
5.5cm/y

6.5 cm/y
6.5cm/y7.0cm/yEcuadorColombia

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Megathrust earthquakes in Latin
America (1900~2014)
5.5 cm/y

6.5 cm/y
6.5 cm/y
7.0 cm/y

EcuadorColombia

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Great earthquakes in South-America

Modified from Carena [2011]
modified from Carena [2011]
5Contents
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Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, Lima
Perú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima
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Active faultsof Northernand Central
Andes

Veloza (2012)7

Quaternary faults ofCentral and South Andes
USGS, Macharé and Machette (2003) [Peru]
USGS, IRD, U. Chile (2000) [Chile]
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Shallowseismicity inLatin America(1976~2014)- Earthquakes withMw>5.0 (GlobalCMT catalogue)- Depth < 30 km- 2765 events(from a total of 5023 events)
9Contents••••••

Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, Lima
Perú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima
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Seismic Hazard in North
and Central America

Schedlock (1999)

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Seismic Hazard in South America

Dimaté et al(1999)
Schedlock etal. (1999)
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Historical intensities in South America

Period:1530 ~ 1981
(450 years)
Number of intensity
data points (IDP):
16318
Number ofearthquakes:
3183
Giesecke et al.
(2004)

13Probability of large earthquakes
in Latin America

Ecuador - South Colombia

Central Andes [Lima]

Conditional Probability(1989 -1999)
60-10040-60

0-20
No historic record ofgreat earthquakes

North Chile

2010 Maule [Mw8.8]

20-40

Nishenko (1991)

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Contents
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•
•

•

Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, LimaPerú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima
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1999 Quindio earthquake, Colombia (Mw6.1)
Damage in Armenia city, Colombia

Reconnaissance team, Japanese Ministry of Education, Science Sport and Culture
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2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw 7.7)
Large scale landslide in Santa Tecla city, El Salvador• 193 people buried by theearthquake triggered landslide

Reconnaissance team by the Japanese Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)
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2007 Pisco earthquake, Perú (Mw 8.0)
Large damage to adobe houses inPisco city

Damage to reinforced concrete building withinsufficient seismic resistance in Pisco city
Reconnaissance team by the Japanese Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)18

Field survey 2010 Maule Earthquake, Chile

Threereconnaissanceteams dispachedby SATREPS
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Strong ground motions of the 2010
Maule earthquake

Pulido et al.
(2011)
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Damage to 15~20 storied buildings in Concepción

Sekiguchi et al. (2010)

Salas 1343
Concepción

Tsunami damage at Dichato,Concepción• Measured runup height ~10m(Koshimura et al 2010)21

Contents••
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•
•

•

Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, Lima
Perú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima
23

Seismic coupling and mega‐earthquakes
Coupling model

Slip model

Slip model

Coupling model

Source model of the 2011 (M9.0)
Source model of the 2010 (M8.8)
Maule earthquake, Chile (Pulido et Tohoku-oki earthquake, Japan (Suzukiet al. 2011), and seismic couplingal. 2011), and seismic coupling(Loveless and Meade, 2012)(Moreno et al. 2010)24

Historicalearthquakesin Peru

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Slip deficit rate for Peru and Northern Chileand scenario earthquake for Central Peru
(Chlieh et al. 2011)

C(x)*vo• Slip deficit since 1746 (265 years)• Maximum slip is 20 m
• Magnitude Mw~8.9, neglecting the
20 century earthquake sequence

S(x)=C(x) * vo * t(Pulido et al. 2011)

S(x): slip, t : elapsed time26

EARTHQUAKESLIPSSCENARIOSFOR CENTRALPERU

obtained fromgeodetic data, as
well as informationof recurrence ofhistoricalearthquakes(Pulido 2013)

http://www.jshis bosai go jp/staff/nelson/smsimu Central Peru v1p0/Lima SMsimu v1p0 htm

Velocity models
obtained frommicrotremors
arrays in Lima andtheir 1D transfer
functions (Calderónet al. 2012)28

Average S‐wave velocity for the upper 10m
and soil amplifications to engineering bedrock(Vs ~ 400m)

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Most critical scenario & Observed intensities
during the 1746 earthquake (M～9)~IX

PGA for most critical slip, includes
soil amplification

Maximum MMI intensity in Lima IX~X
(Alva et al. 1984)
PGA ~1g, PGV ~90 cm/s
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Simulated Pseudo acceleration response spectra(average for all scenarios) at all grid points and the
Peruvian seismic building code design spectra (2003)
Peruvian buildingcode for the highest
seismic zone
(Z=0.4g),in rock (green),
hard soil (orange)and soft soils (red)32Contents
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Tectonic setting and great historicalearthquakes in Latin America
Active faults and recent seismic activity
Seismic hazard and earthquake probability
Recent damaging earthquakes
Estimation of the fault model and strong
ground motion for a great subduction
earthquake to strike Central Andes, Lima
Perú.
Tsunami simulation at Lima
33

Tsunami inundation at Lima fromscenario earthquakes

Mas et al. 201334

Modeling Social Response
Erick Mas@Tohoku Univ.

Multi-Agent Horizontal
Multi-Agent Vertical
Evacuation Simulation at La Evacuation Simulation at La
Punta
Punta

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Thank you very much!
Muchas Gracias!
ご清聴ありがとうございます．

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