JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Developing Tsunami Damage Estimationand Mitigation Technologies
Tsunami Research Group(Group 2)

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JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Research Plan
Tsunami Source based on
worst case scenarios

Tsunami Model validation
through the representationof historical events（2001
Camana and 2007 Pisco）

Developing Tsunami
simulation model in Peru
Damage assessment
Mapping oftsunami impact
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Contentsofdiscussion• What we are going to do in 2010
– Japan side
• Seismic and tsunami source model of 2001 Camana and 2007 Pisco (Dr.
Yagi, Dr. Fujii)• Tsunami modeling to identify what the worst‐case scenario is (Dr.
Koshimura, Dr. Yanagisawa)• Collecting field survey data of 2001 Camana event• Tsunami damage assessment (Dr. Koshimura, Dr. Shoji, Dr. Yanagisawa)– Peru side
• Tsunami numerical simulation and field survey (Mr. Jiménez).
• Investigation of present status on tsunami research and practice in Peru
from Pisco and Camana (Prof. Ocola)• Investigation of tsunami issue in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN, Mr. Jiménez).
• Seismicity (IGP) and GPS information (IGP, SIRGAS project/IGN,)
3JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

What we are going to do in 2010
■ We model seismic and tsunami source in 2001 Camana and 2007 Pisco
earthquake and tsunami using inversion from observed data.
2010 Chile tsunami

Fujii (2010)

Tide gauge data and bathymetry data are provided from DHN

4

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

What we are going to do in 2010
■ To validate tsunami model, we collect field data of 2001 Camana event→ we are going to do field survey from 17 to 19 in this tripto collect house damage data and topographic data

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

What we are going to do in 2010
■ Bridge related knowledge and human for the training
between Japan and Peru
‐ Mr. Jiménez is ready to travel to Japan for the training ofseismology and tsunami technologies in Japan.

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Thank you

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

What are we going to do in 2010
■ To assess tsunami damage in high tsunami risk area, we model tsunami
inundation using nonlinear model.
∂η1 ⎡ ∂M ∂ ( N cos θ ) ⎤++⎥=0∂t R cos θ ⎢⎣ ∂λ∂θ⎦gh ∂η∂M+= fN∂tR cos θ ∂λ∂N gh ∂η+= − fN∂tR ∂θ
t: Time，λ: Longitude，θ: Latitude，g:Gravity acceleration，η: Water level，h:Water level，M,N: Flux，R: Radius ofearth，f: Coriolis coefficient

10JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Objectives and Goals• To assess the potential tsunami disaster andits impact to the Peruvian coast• To develop practical technologies to mitigate
tsunami risks in Peru
• Implementation to the plans for disastermitigation of Peruvian government• Contributions to Pacific tsunami disastermitigation strategies
11JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss■ Tsunami damage assessment
Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event)→ we are going to do field survey from 17 to 19 in this trip

13JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss• What are we going to do in 2010
– Peru side
• Tsunami numerical simulation (Mr. Jiménez).
• Present status on tsunami research and practice in Peru from
Pisco and Camana is investigated (Prof. Ocola)• Tsunami issue in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN , Mr.
Jiménez) is reported.
• GPS information (SIRGAS project/IGN) by Prof. Ocola

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss continued [3]• Bridge related knowledge and human for the training between Japan and Peru
‐ Mr. Jiménez travel to Japan• Data bridging‐‐‐ civil defense• Purpose of field survey by Dr. Yanagisawa‐ call to city hall‐‐

19JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss continued [1]• From observation of the tsunami damage by Prof. Ocola‐ Building (house) failure modes‐ Erosion‐ Localization in affected areas‐ topography‐ run up along a river‐ Historical earthquakes‐ GPS; seismic gaps
26 sites and 1 st in Arequipa by IGP ?
40 sts in future by institute of geograph… ? cf. Japan‐ IRD‐ Prof Zavala forces
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JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss continued [2]• Comments from Mr. Jiménez‐ bathymetry / topography‐ tidal data at Pisco, San Juan, Matarani and …
‐ numerical computation scheme‐ tsunami source‐ 2001‐ 200722

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss [1]• Study area …
– One historical event for model verification/validation(Camana,Pisco)– Two potential scenarios (Callao, Chimbote, Pisco, Ilo harbor ;important ports industrial commercial places and exposures)• Data we need
– Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter
grid form North Pisco, South Pisco should be requested,
Camana is already prepared)– Field survey results for model validation (Pisco, Camana)– Building polygon for structural damage estimation
24– Population data for fatality estimation

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Research Plan (Implementation Phase)• Developing a fundamental procedure for mapping
tsunami hazard– Training program (Tsunami modeling and mapping)– Warning, guidance and public education• Strategic planning to mitigate tsunami risks anddamage– Tsunami disaster mitigation program for Peruviangovernment– Tsunami countermeasures– Design for tsunami evacuation facilities– Tsunami evacuation strategies
25JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Things to discuss [2]• Human resources… who is going to work on tsunami modeling? Schedule?
• Towards kickoff meeting, what are we going to do– Japan side
• Tsunami propagation modeling to identify what the worst‐case scenariois.
• Tsunami damage assessment (Shoji)• Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event)– Peru side
• What has been done from Pisco and Camana.
• Tsunami issue in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN , Mr. Jimenez)

26JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Study area
In Pisco, Structures have been damaged.
Characteristics are different : Adobe, Quincha (atPisco)
In Camana, Masonry (non‐engineered concrete
structures)
In Callao, Concrete buildings, Masonry of 3‐5 stories,
Adobe with thick walls, wooden house
Maybe we need different type of damage function.
Hopefully, we develop original damage function, andalso we use existed ones from similar structural type.
27

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Lessons from Chimbote and Camana• We need some measures to identify tsunami
risks, such as intensity scale (I‐VIII?) for publicawareness.
• In terms of tsunami travel time …
• We need instructions what to do, what not todo.
• Tsunami run‐up along river. Lots ofeyewitness accounts from Camana river.
• How we visualize RISKS.

28

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Data from DHN• Field/observed data from Camana, Pisco,Callao, Chimbote• Tide gauge records from historical events• Bathymetry and Topography data
• Inundation charts

29

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

To Do
• Potential tsunami source scenarios suggested
by IGP ? (Northern Peru ; seismic gap ? Callaoregion ?)30

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Today’s agenda■ Worst case scenarios:
How can we determine worst case scenarios in Peru coast ?
■ Model validation:
・Target tsunami event is 2001 Camana tsunami.
・Observed data of 2001 tsunami is needed (tide gauge, tsunami height)
to determine tsunami source model・Bathymetry have been measured by DHN (Callao, Camana, Pisco, Chimbote).
How about topography data ?
→ Field measurement in Camana is going to be done after this workshop.
■ Study area:
・This is determined from the results of worst casescenarios. But, Callao, Pisco and Chimbote arehigh tsunami risk area based on preliminary
assessment (Potential tsunami exposure).

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Today’s agenda■ Tsunami simulation
・Who is going to work on tsunami modeling? Mr. Jimenez, ok?
■ Damage assessment
・Population data is required.
・GIS data related to building, road and other important structures arerequired.
・How can we estimate fragility function of buildings with variable type?
■Schedule ?

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Joint resolution• what are we going to do
We are going to invite Mr.Jemenas for training the tsunami andearthquake.
‐ Bathymetry (Callao .. etc. ) are shared.
‐ We will request IGP GPS data of ground motion‐Peru side

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Future study• Potential tsunami source scenarios suggested
by IGP ? (Northern Peru ; seismic gap ? Callao
region ?)34

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009note

• We are going to invite Mr.Jemenas to train
the tsunami and earthquake.
• DHN

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Objectives and Goals• To assess the potential tsunami disaster andits impact to the Peruvian coast• To develop practical technologies to mitigate
tsunami risks in Peru
• Implementation to the plans for disastermitigation of Peruvian government• Contributions to Pacific tsunami disastermitigation strategies
36JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Research Plan (Scientific phase)• Assessing historical tsunami events and its impact in Peru
– Tsunami sources– Tsunami hazard (Tsunami generation, near‐shore propagationand coastal inundation)– Damage (Casualties, Structural damage)• Indentifying potential tsunamis and the worst casescenarios– Tectonic settings and tsunami source scenarios– Potential tsunami exposure (Exposed population)– Potential impact• Mapping tsunami hazard and its impact– Inundation modeling– Damage estimation (Casualties, Structural damage)– Hazard maps, Cartography

37

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
Kickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Post‐tsunami survey in Camana

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