SixthReport
SixthAssessmentAssessment
ReportWORKING GROUP III – MITIGATIONMITIGATION OF
OF CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGE

Climate Change 2022

IPCC’s Mitigation Assessment:
Conclusions from AR6 and Future Challenges
IPCC Symposium
Tokyo, 19 May 2022

Jim Skea, IPCC WG III Co-Chair[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

We are not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C
Average annual GHG emissions during 2010–19 werethe highest in human history..

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Emissions are growing in most regions

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Emissions are distributed unevenly, both in the present
day and cumulatively since 1850

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Since 2010, there
have beensustained
decreases of up to85% in the costs ofsolar and windenergy In somecases, costs forrenewables havefallen below thoseof fossil fuels.

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

There have beenlarge increases incapacity installed.
Electricitysystems in somecountries andregions arealreadypredominantly
powered byrenewables.

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE---Regulatory and economic
instruments have alreadyproven effective in
reducing emissions;

Climate laws cover 53%of global emissions;
20% of emissions arecovered by carbon taxes
or trading systems[World Bank/Simone D. McCourtie, Dominic Chavez CC
BY-NC-ND 2.0, Trent Reeves/MTA Construction &Development CC BY 2.0, IMF Photo/Tamara Merino CC
BY-NC-ND 2.0, Olga Delawrence/Unsplash.]Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Trend forimplemented policies

Likely below
2°C, NDCs
until 2030
Likely below 2°C,
with immediate
actionLimiting warming to 1.5 °C●

Global GHG emissions peak
before 2025, reduced by 43%
by 2030.

●

Methane reduced by 34% by2030

Limiting warming to around 2°C●

1.5°C with no orlimited overshootGlobal GHG emissions peak
before 2025, reduced by 27%by 2030.

(based on IPCC-assessed scenarios)

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Modelled mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5ºC, and2ºC, involve deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Modelled mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5ºC, and2ºC, involve deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Net zero CO2 and netzero GHG emissions arepossible throughdifferent modelled
mitigation pathways

SIXTH
Sixth ASSESSMENT
AssessmentREPORT
ReportWORKINGGroup
GROUP– MITIGATION
OF CLIMATECHANGE
Working
III –IIIMitigationof Climate
ChangeThere are options available now inevery sector that can at least
halve emissions by 2030
Demand and services

EnergyLand use

Industry

Urban

Buildings

Transport

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Energy⎻major transitions are required to limit
global warming⎻reduction in fossil fuel use and use ofcarbon capture and storage⎻

low- or no-carbon energy systems⎻

widespread electrification andimproved energy efficiency⎻

alternative fuels: e.g. hydrogen andsustainable biofuels[Portland General Electric CC BY-ND 2.0, HarryCunningham/Unsplash, Stéphane Bellerose/UNDP inMauritius and Seychelles CC BY-NC 2.0, IMF Photo/Lisa
Marie David, Tamara Merino CC BY-NC-ND 2.0]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many options available now in all sectors are estimate to offer
substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030 : EnergySixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Land use-

can provide large-scale emissions
reductions and remove and store CO2at scale-protecting and restoring naturalecosystems to remove carbon: forests,peatlands, coastal wetlands, savannasand grasslands-competing demands have to be carefully
managed-cannot compensate for delayedemission reductions in other sectors[Mokhamad Edliadi, Nanang Sujana/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many options available now in all sectors are estimate to offer
substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030 : AFOLU

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Cities and urban areas-better urban planning, as well as:-sustainable production and consumptionof goods and services,-electrification (low-emission energy),-enhancing carbon uptake and storage(e.g. green spaces, ponds, trees)

There are options for existing, rapidly growing
and new cities.

[Pelargoniums for Europe/Unsplash, City of St Pete CC
BY-ND 2.0, Victor/Unsplash, EThekwini Municipality, ArneMüseler/arne-mueseler.com, CC BY-SA 3.0 de]Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many options available now in all sectors are estimate to offer
substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030 : Buildings

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGETransport⎻reducing demand and low-carbon
technologies are key to reducingemissions⎻

electric vehicles: greatest potential⎻battery technology: advances could
assist electric rail, trucks⎻

aviation and shipping: alternativefuels (low-emission hydrogen andbiofuels) needed⎻

Overall, substantial potential but
depends on decarbonising thepower sector.
[United Airlines, Jeremy Segrott
CC BY 2.0, Andreas160578/Pixabay]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many options available now in all sectors are estimate to offer
substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030 : TransportSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many options available now in all sectors are estimate to offer
substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030 : Industry

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Demand side mitigation can be achieved by changes in socio-cultural factors,
infrastructure design and use, and end use technology adoption by 2050

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGECarbon Dioxide Removal⎻

required to counterbalance hard-to-eliminate emissions⎻

through biological methods: reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration⎻

new technologies require more research, up-front investment, and proof of concept
at larger scales⎻

essential to achieve net zero⎻

agreed methods for measuring, reporting and verification required[Forest Service Northern Region CC BY 2.0, Fiston Wasanga/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0, Climeworks]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR): Taxonomy of Methods

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation options have many
synergies with the Sustainable
Development Goals, but some
options can also have tradeoffs.
The synergies and trade-offs
vary dependent on context andscaleSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation options and the SDGs: EnergySixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation options and the SDGs: AFOLU

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation options and the SDGs: Urban Systems

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation options and the SDGs: TransportSixthReport
SixthAssessment
Assessment
ReportWORKING GROUP III – MITIGATIONMITIGATION OF
OF CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGE“We have the policy tools

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGEPolicies, regulatory andeconomic instruments--

policy packages and economy-wide
packages are able to achieve systemicchange-ambitious and effective mitigation requires
coordination across government andsociety
An increasing range of policies and laws
have enhanced energy efficiency,
reduced rates of deforestation andaccelerated the deployment ofrenewable energy.

[World Bank/Simone D. McCourtie, Dominic Chavez CC
BY-NC-ND 2.0, Trent Reeves/MTA Construction &Development CC BY 2.0, IMF Photo/Tamara Merino CC
BY-NC-ND 2.0, Olga Delawrence/Unsplash.]Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Technology and Innovation⎻

investment and policies push forward lowemissions technological innovation⎻

effective decision making requires assessing
potential benefits, barriers and risks⎻

some options are technically viable, rapidly
becoming cost-effective, and have relatively
high public support. Other options facebarriers
Adoption of low-emission technologies
is slower in most developing countries,
particularly the least developed ones.

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Closing investment gaps⎻

financial flows: 3-6x lower than levels
needed by 2030 to limit warming tobelow 1.5°C or 2°C⎻

there is sufficient global capital andliquidity to close investment gaps⎻

challenge of closing gaps is widest fordeveloping countries[Tobias/Unsplash, Rwanda Green Fund /CC BY-SA 2.0]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation investment flows fall short of investment needs across all
sectors and types of economy, particularly in developing countries

Note: from Technical SummaryNew Scientific Challenges• Scenarios• Inventories, sources and sinks, and mitigation• Adaptation and mitigation• The impacts of the implementation of response measures• Engaging with social science• Coherent science and assessment

Scenarios (or is it pathways?)Scenarios (2)• Lack of attention to pathways that are off the “middle of the road”(97% of new scenarios in the AR6 database are based on SSP2)• Lack of valuation of co-benefits in models• More policy-relevant transparency about key assumptions• More explicit attention to “who pays” to complement “what actions
are taken where”• Do Integrated Assessment Models have all the answers?

AR6 Scenario Explorer:secondary research opportunities

https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/

Inventories, sources and sinks, mitigation• Not just three WGs – Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas
Emission Inventories (TFI)• 5.5 Gigatonne gap between CO2-LULUCF in UNFCCC inventories anddynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs)• Uncertainty ranges• CO2-LULUCF +/- 70%• CH4 +/- 30%• N2O +/- 60%• TFI Expert Meeting on use of atmospheric observation data inemission inventories (September 2022)

Adaptation and mitigation• Areas where there are no adaptation and mitigation responses, onlyresponses with adaptation and mitigation (and other) outcomes:• Settlements• Land use

The impacts of the implementation ofresponse measures• The work of the UNFCCC Katowice Committee of Experts• Just Transition and Climate JusticeIPCC and the social sciences• IPCC wants social science more than social scientists like IPCC
• Lack of alignment between IPCC activities and career structures

Mechanisms for coherent science and assessment• Common glossaries(Note UNEP-led Ad-Hoc Global Assessment Dialogue process)• Cross-Working Group Boxes and other activities• Cross-chapter (cross-WG activities)• Changed IPCC structure?

S
ixth AAssessment
ssessment RReport
eport
Sixth
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATIONMITIGATION OF
OF CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGE“The evidence isclear:

The time foraction is now[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]