RCINDiM
National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disasters Management

TSUNAMI RESEARCH ADVANCEMENTS WITHIN THE
JST-JICA SATREPS PROJECT

Dr. Patricio CATALAN (patricio.catalan@usm.cl)
Associate Researcher-CIGIDENWork Group 3 PI - JST-JICA SATREPS Project
Associate Professor – Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Department UC

International Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Latin America, Tokyo, March 7, 2014

RESEARCH PROJECT ON ENHANCEMENT OFTECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOP TSUNAMI-RESILIENTCOMMUNITY
Director: Ricardo TEJADA
Director Nacional de Obras Portuarias, Ministerio de Obras Públicas
Japan-side PI: Dr. Takashi TOMITAPort and Airport Research Institute
Chilean-side PI: Dr. Rodrigo CIENFUEGOS
CIGIDEN-Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

MOTIVATION• 8.8 Mw 2010 Great Maule Earthquake & Tsunami-Chile was relatively well prepared against earthquakes
Important problems were evidenced when facing the tsunami disaster(emergency alert and response, public understanding, scientific knowledge,
great damage)

NEIC’s fault model

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

MOTIVATION• 9.0 Mw 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami-Much bigger than the Chilean event
Important knowledge to share and many lessons tolearn

Yagi & Fukuhata, 2011

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

MOTIVATION

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

PROJECT PURPOSE

Technologies and measures aredeveloped to improve communities
and people in Chile, Japan andacross the world to be wellprepared and resilient against
tsunamis

2012-032013-112016

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

G 4: Proposal of Programs to Create Well-Prepared/Resilient People andCommunity
Methods to create wellprepared people

G 1: Development ofMathematical
Simulation
Methods

Mathematical models toestimate tsunami damage
Database on damage
caused by the 2010
Chile and 2011 JapantsunamiImprovement oftsunami-defense structure
design methods

Planning method for local
government system to befunctional after the disaster

Methods to utilize ports andharbors in emergency
periodG 2: Proposal of Tsunami

Disaster Estimation
Method and Mitigation
Measures

Estimation of damage inIquique and a Japanese city

G 3: Improvement ofPrecise Tsunami
Warning Method

Precise tsunami prediction
method using observation datawith seismometers andoffshore tsunami-meters

Guideline for disasterestimation
Mitigation measures inIquique

Information dissemination
methodGeneral objectives / Group 1
Mathematical simulation models aredeveloped/improved to estimate tsunami
damage.
Databases on disasters by the 2010 Chilean earthquake
tsunami and 2011 Japanese earthquake tsunami areconstructed to understand and estimate tsunami disasters bypossible tsunamis in the future.
Mathematical simulation models are developed and improved
to estimate tsunami damage accurately..
Improve the plans and designs methods of structures ofmitigation for disaster tsunami from the experienced disasters
by the earthquake - tsunami in Chile 2010 and earthquake tsunami in Japan 2011.

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

General objectives / Group 2
Propose estimation and the tsunami disastermitigation measures
To develop a guideline for estimation of the disaster,tsunami, based on mathematical simulations about
possible tsunamis generated in the coast of Chile in thefuture.
To estimate damage from the tsunami in Japan based onmathematical simulations about possible tsunamis
generated in the coast of Chile in the future.
Develop and improve measures of mitigation of disastertsunami in accordance with Chile and Japan tsunami
disaster scenarios.

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

MADERA
Mala resistencia salvo que se utilicen
viviendas con tipología de palafito

HORMIGON ARMADO
Buena resistencia ante el tsunami

ADOBE
Resistencia débil ante el tsunami

Iloca, VII Región
RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

DichatoPrePost

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

Fragility Curves

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

General objectives / Group 3
Precise tsunami warning method is proposed.

Precise tsunami prediction method is developed,
incorporating data of seismometers and offshore
tsunami-meters.
Developing a new tsunami database system for Chile(Chile DB).
A method to disseminate tsunami information isdeveloped in Chile with the use of Japanese experiences
as references.

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

General objectives / Group 4
To propose a program to create a wellprepared and resilient population andcommunity.
To develop a program to create a population well
prepared and resilient to tsunamis, and promotes
leaders for Chile tsunami disaster mitigation.
To develop a procedure to use ports in a phase ofrescue after tsunami disaster with using Japaneseexperiences as references.
Develop a method of planning of local governments
so that they can work quickly after a tsunami disaster.

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

RESEARCH ADVANCEMENTSTSUNAMI MODELINGTSUNAMI EVACUATIONTSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEMRCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING

Assessing and improving the capabilities of tsunami models atseveral scales:•Regional scale•

Inundation, run-up, propagation on river/estuaries•

Damage estimation and mitigation countermeasures

The recent tsunamis of Chile and Japan offer unique opportunities totest and improve models since important information is available

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Different methods to assess tsunami source (2010 EQ)
coseismic slip

Interseismiccoupling

Moreno et al., (2010)
RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Tsunami arrival times (La Tercera 2010, SHOA)

Carrión et al. (2011)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Tidal gauge data for the2010 tsunami (Fritz et al.,2011)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Post tsunami
observations (Fritz etal., 2011)y 156 casualties attributed
to the tsunami, 24 missing(523 in total)y Run-ups and inundation
depths highly variable

Maximum observed
run‐up (~30m)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Modeling of the 2010 Tsunami using the STOC Model (PARI)• Implementation and validation ofthe STOC model (PARI) on the2010 Tsunami• High resolution data forinundation modeling (~2m)• Analysis of container’s drift andtsunami damage in theTalcahuano area

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING

Edge waves andshelf resonancecomputed using
the STOC modelfrom PARI

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Inundation and container’s drift modeling in the Talcahuano area

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI MODELING
Model Validation in the Talcahuano area

Observations

Modeling
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TSUNAMI MODELING
Empirical fragility curves in Dichato
Mas et al. (2012)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

RESEARCH ADVANCEMENTSTSUNAMI MODELINGTSUNAMI EVACUATIONTSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE
Diagnostic Analysis of the City of Iquique• Definition of preliminary tsunami source scenarios• Characterization of population at risk
• Evacuation routes, possible damage and interferences• Psycho-social behavior in emergency situation

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE• Tsunami scenario based on Chlieh et al. (2011) (Mw ~8.6-8.8 Arica-Antofagasta
uniform source)

risk

ario:
victims
unable tople infactors!

Arrival times

Inundated area
Work with TU Delft students
RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE• Commercial ZOFRI area ishighly exposed• Nearly 10.000 persons at peakhours• Less than 20 minutes forevacuation• Narrow ramps for pedestrianevacuation

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE• Observation of the evacuation drill that took
place in Agust 8th 2013
• National evacuation drill program led byONEMI since 2011
• Nearly 70.000 persons participated in theevacuation drill in Iquique• CIGIDEN and SATREPS researchers
conducted a field work during the drill- Observations- Questionnaires- Interviews

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE
Items evaluated during the drill

Required time for evacuation
Evacuation routes
Congestion and bottlenecks
Community awareness about theevacuation process• Time perception during evacuation••••

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE
Evacuation times
Mean : 17.35 min

SD : 13.08 min

TIMEPERCENTAGE

5 min or less19.5%

10 min27.9%

15 min28.8%

More than 15 min

23.9%

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EVACUATIONCASE STUDY IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE• Agent based modeling for tsunami evacuation in collaboration with PARI (CADMASAGENT)

Now under development

Arikawa, Tomita, Abeand Koshimura (2013)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

RESEARCH ADVANCEMENTSTSUNAMI MODELINGTSUNAMI EVACUATIONTSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM• Development of a pre-tsunami modeled scenariodatabase• Instrumentation analysis)Pre-modeled tsunamiscenarios (Fondef project)pde ocurrencia de un tsunami.

Satélite GPSReceptor GPS

Equipo detelemetría

Estación derepetición

Centro deDetección

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Investigation of what array configuration of offshoretsunami stations is effective for near-field tsunami
prediction in the Chilean coasts

Chile

Synthetic test of tsunami prediction
assuming several array configurations
Investigation using tFISH algorithm
Effect of offshore tsunami station array
configuration on tFISH forecast in Japan

Application toChilean case

Information: effective array configuration
Æ Possibility to contribute to planning
future tsunami observatories in Chile
RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

WG4a, Education
LINES OF ACTION
 Formal education
 Non-Formal Education
 Information Systems
 Evacuation

Pilots Course under development
 Diploma for municipal officials from Talcahuano.
 Elective management course in DRR for students who will beteachers at the school system.
 Elaboration of series of Elective courses in DRR and CCA forall students of the University.

Introducing Project in School Education for Disaster Risk
Reduction to Government of BIOBIO Region.
RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

Summary
Project has been successful in advancing in state-ofthe-art tsunami research in both Chile and Japan
Improved understanding of physical, technologicaland societal aspects
Good record of capacity building in Chile
Challenges ahead: Transfering advancements tomeasures at local level (e.g. Municpalities)

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales

Thank you!

RCINDiM Centro de Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales