Sixth
Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change 2022

The role of energy demand and services in climate
stabilization
Based on the findings of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
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There are options available now inevery sector that can at least halve
emissions by 2030
Demand and services

EnergyLand useIndustry

Urban

BuildingsTransport

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate ChangeIllustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) =>There are many ways to achieve net zero … with benefits and risks to each.
PRIMARY ENERGY

Negative Emissions technologies
Renewables
Low Demand

Sustainability

NegativeEmissions
technologies

GHG EMISSIONS

Credit: Keywan Riahi (IIASA)

AR6 Scenarios Database: Temperature rise vs. final energy

IEA NZE 2050

Source: Grubler et al. (2018); IEA (2020a, 2020b); IPCC AR6 Scenarios Databasep67 warming in 2100 (degrees C)

Final energy demand in selected decarbonization scenariosLow-demand pathways: a key blind spot in
decarbonization scenarios
654321002550
75100Final energy per capita in 2100 (GJ/pers)

125150To better inform low demand policies, better datasets, models, andscenarios are needed on behavioral, infrastructural, and technologicalchanges that minimize energy and resource demand, particularly aturban scales

SIXTH
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ChangeGranular technologies anddecentralised energy enduse, characterised bymodularity, small unit sizes
and small unit costs, diffuse
faster into markets and areassociated with fastertechnological learningbenefits, greater efficiency,
more opportunities toescape technological lockin, and greater employment

“[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

Demand is especially important indeveloped countries
In developed countries, mosttechnological, social, business(model) innovations are needed forrethinking and restructuring existing
urban space, repurposing,retrofitting and reusing existing
infrastructure, vehicle stocks andequipment rather having tobuild/produce newDemand and services⎻

potential to bring down global emissions by
40-70% by 2050⎻

walking and cycling, electrified transport,
reducing air travel, and adapting houses
make large contributions⎻

lifestyle changes require systemic changes
across all of society⎻

some people require additional housing,energy and resources for human wellbeing[Bosch, Unsplash/Yoav Aziz, Adam Bartoszewicz, Victor Hernandez]

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

Demand and services
more efficient end-use energy
conversion can improve services while
reducing the need for upstream
energy by 45% by 2050 compared to2020
Demand-side mitigation encompasseschanges in infrastructure, end-use
technology adoption, service
provision, and socio-cultural andbehavioural change.

Lowest quartile of population require
additional housing, nutrition, energy
and resources for human wellbeing[Bosch, Unsplash/Yoav Aziz, Adam Bartoszewicz, Victor Hernandez]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Demandandservices[Bosch, Unsplash/Yoav Aziz, Adam Bartoszewicz, Victor Hernandez]

12Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGESIXTH
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The role of individuals 1❑❑❑❑❑

Individual behavioural change is insufficient for climate change mitigation
unless embedded in structural and cultural change and facilitated by rightinfrastructures and service provisioning systems
Wealthy individuals contribute disproportionately to higher emissions
and have a high potential for emissions reductions
Individuals with high socio-economic status are capable of reducing their
GHG emissions by becoming role models of low-carbon lifestyles, investingin low-carbon businesses, and advocating for stringent climate policies.
Behavioural interventions, including information provision, education,
choice architectures and nudges, work synergistically with price signals,
making the combinations more effective
Green defaults, such as automatic enrolment in ‘green energy’ provision,
are highly effective.

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The role of individuals 2❑❑❑❑

Cultural change, in combination with infrastructure, is necessary to enable
and realise behavioural change
Individuals contribute to climate change mitigation in their diverse
capacities as consumers, citizens, professionals, role models, investors,and policymakers
Social influencers and thought leaders can increase the adoption of lowcarbon technologies, behaviours, and lifestyles
Transition pathways and changes in social norms often start with pilot
experiments led by dedicated individuals and niche groups (eg youthclimate strikes)

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORTIPCC 2022

Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

Individuals are important, but people alone cannot bring in change: needinfrastructure, technology access, incentives, equity

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The role of corporations
❑❑

❑

❑

The current effects of climate change, as well as some mitigation strategies, arethreatening the viability of existing business practices, while some corporate efforts
also delay mitigation action
A good number of corporate agents have attempted to derail climate change
mitigation by targeted lobbying and doubt-inducing media strategies
Corporate advertisement and brand-building strategies may also attempt to deflect
corporate responsibility to individuals or aim to appropriate climate-care sentimentsin their own brand–building
Corporate advertisement and brand building strategies also attempt to deflect
corporate responsibility to individuals, and/or to appropriate climate caresentiments in their own brand building; climate change mitigation is uniquely
framed through choice of products and consumption, avoiding the notion ofcorporate responsibility

SIXTH
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ChangeThe role of corporations
❑❑

❑

❑

Businesses and corporate organisations play a key role in mitigation through theirown commitments to zero-carbon footprints, decisions to invest in researching andimplementing new energy technologies and energy efficient measures, and thesupply side interaction with changing consumer preferences and behaviours, e.g.
via marketing.
Business models and strategies work both as a barrier to and as accelerator of
decarbonisationstrong sustainability business models (SSBM) are characterised by identifying
nature as the primary stakeholder, strong local anchorage, the creation ofdiversified income sources, and deliberate limitations on economic growth.
However, SSBM are difficult to maintain if generally traditional business models
prevail, requiring short-term accounting
Companies, businesses and organisations might face liability claims for theircontribution to climate change especially in the carbon intensive energy sector

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Service provisioning, sharing economy, digitalization, circulareconomy❑❑❑

Alternative service provision systems, for example, those enabledthrough digitalisation, sharing economy initiatives and circular economy
initiatives, have to date made a limited contribution to climate change
mitigation
While digitalisation through specific new products and applications holds
potential for improvement in service-level efficiencies, without publicpolicies and regulations, it also has the potential to increase consumption
and energy use.
Claims on the benefits of the circular economy for sustainability andclimate change mitigation have limited evidenceSIXTH
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The growing nexus between digitalisation, the sharing economy, and the circular economy in service delivery systems.
Widespread digitalisation may lead to net increases in electricity use, demand for electronics manufacturing resources,and e-waste, all of which must be monitored and managed via targeted policies

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ChangeDigitalisation❑❑❑❑❑

Offers both opportunities and risks for emissions
Digital platforms allow surplus resources to be identified, offered , shared, transacted
and exchanged
Real-time information flows on consumers’ preferences and needs mean service
provision can be personalised, differentiated, automated, and optimised
Rapid innovation cycles and software upgrades drive continual improvements inperformance and responsiveness to consumer behaviour
The sustainability implications of digitalised services hinge on:•(1) the direct energy demands of connected devices and the digital infrastructures (i.e. data centres andcommunication networks) that provide necessary computing, storage, and communication services•(2) the systems-level energy and resource efficiencies that may be gained and energy and material demandthat can be avoided through the provision of digital services•(3) the resource, material, and waste management requirements of the billions of ICT devices thatcomprise the world’s digital systems•(4) the magnitude of potential rebound effects or induced energy demands that might unleash unintended
and unsustainable demand growth, such as autonomous vehicles inducing more frequent and longer
journeys due to reduced travel costs

Digitalizationand sharing …
help orhindrance?

Source: IPCC AR6 WGIII Chapter 5 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter_05.pdf

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ChangeDigitalisation 2❑❑❑❑quantitative estimates vary widely, with literature values suggesting that consumer
devices, data centres, and data networks account for anywhere from 6% to 12% of
global electricity use
there is growing concern that remaining energy efficiency improvements might be
outpaced by rising demand for digital services, particularly as data-intensive technologies
such as artificial intelligence, smart and connected energy systems, distributed
manufacturing systems, and autonomous vehicles promise to increase demand for dataservices even further in the future
net systems-level energy and resource efficiencies gained through the provision of digital
services could play an important role in dealing with climate change and otherenvironmental challenges
evidence of potential negative outcomes due to rebound effects, induced demand, or lifecycle trade-offs can also be observed

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automated vehicles reduce the costs of time, parking, and personnel, andtherefore may dramatically increase vehicle mileage
The energy requirements of cryptocurrencies is also a growing concern, althoughmuch uncertainty
Initial estimates of the computational intensity of artificial intelligencealgorithms suggest that energy requirements may be enormous without
concerted effort to improve efficiencies
the net effects of digitalization is yet unknown, but there is medium
evidence that digitalised consumer services can reduce overallemissions, energy use, and activity levels, but induced demand andrebound effects must be managed carefully to avoid negative
outcomes

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ChangeDigitalisation 4: maximizing its mitigation potential❑❑❑❑❑

Maximising the mitigation potential of digitalisation trends involves diligent
monitoring and proactive management of both direct and indirect demand
effects,
Direct energy demand can be managed through continued improvements in theenergy efficiency of data centres, networks, and end-use devices
Shifts to low-carbon power are a particularly important strategy for data centres
and networks where data demands outpace hardware efficiency gains,which may be approaching limits in the near future
Most recently, data centres are being investigated as a potential resource fordemand response and load balancing in renewable power grids, while alarge bandwidth for improving software efficiency has been suggested forovercoming slowing hardware efficiency
Ensuring efficiency benefits of digital services while avoiding potential reboundeffects and will require early and proactive public policies

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III –IIIMitigationof ClimateChangeCircular economy❑❑

Many publications, many of them non peer reviewed, eulogize theperceived benefits of the CE, but stop short of providing aquantitative assessment. Promotion of CE from this perspective has
been criticised as a greenwashing attempt by industry
Most of the methodologically rigorous publications foundonly small potentials to reduce GHG emissions

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WorkingIII –IIIMitigationof Climate
Change3 concerns related to the circular economy in the mitigation
context
1.

2.

many proposals on CE insufficiently reflect on thermodynamic constraints that limit
the potential of recycling from both mass conservation and material quality
perspectives or ignore the considerable amount of energy needed so reusematerials
demand for materials and resources will outpace efficiency gains in supply chains,
becoming a key driver of GHG emissions, rendering the CE alone an insufficient
strategy to reduce emissions
1.

As long as long-lived material stocks (e.g., in buildings and infrastructure) continue to grow, strategiestargeting end-of-pipe materials cannot keep pace with primary materials demand2.

only 6.5% of all processed materials (4 Gt yr-1) globally originate from recycled sources

Instead, a significant reduction of societal stock growth, and decisive ecodesign is suggested to advance the CE
Third, cost-effectiveness underlying CE activities may 12 concurrently also increaseenergy intensity
3.

3.

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III –IIIMitigationof ClimateChange●Demand side options improve wellbeing

“the cleanest energy isthe energy we neverneeded to produce”
Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
vorsatzd@ceu.edu
www.ipcc.ch
Twitter:@DianaUrge
dr_Diana_UrgeVorsatz

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
diana.urgevorsatz

29

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ChangeSupplementary slides

“[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

In developed country cities, mosttechnological, social, business(model) innovations are needed forrethinking and restructuring existingurban space, repurposing,retrofitting and reusing existing
infrastructure, vehicle stocks andequipment rather having tobuild/produce newSIXTH
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III –IIIMitigationof Climate
ChangeThe low-carbon lifestyletransition can be classified
into Avoid, Shift, andImprove options

The
totalAssessment
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gasWORKING(GHG)
to half
of the current level or less

SIXTH
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ChangeRobust Insights Deriving from Low Demand Scenarios
1. Socio-cultural changes within transition pathways can offer Gigaton-scale CO2
savings potential at the global level, and therefore represent a substantial
overlooked strategy in traditional mitigation scenarios.
2. Deep demand reductions require parallel pursuit of behavioral change andadvanced energy efficient technology deployment; neither is sufficient on its own.
3. Low demand scenarios can reduce both supply-side capacity additions and theneed for carbon capture and removal technologies to reach emissions targets.
4. The costs of reaching mitigation targets may be lower when incorporating AvoidShift-Improve strategies for deep energy and resource demand reductions.
5. Achieving low demand requires combining innovations in several areas:
technological, behavioral, institutional, and business model
Sources: IPCC WG III AR6 Ch. 5, and David Mc Collum

SIXTH
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ChangeLow demand options for buildings“Avoid”“Shift”“Improve”

Reduced dwelling size Multi-family dwellings

Heat pumps

Building lifespanextension
Materials-efficientdesigns
Daylighting

Multi-use buildings

Efficient appliances

Shared services

LED lighting

Compact urban forms

Solar water heating

Temperature set
points
Shading/orientation…

Insulation and retrofits…
Source: IPCC AR6 WGIII Chapter 5

Low carbon materials…

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Characteristics of an Energy-Services Led
Transformation• Inclusive wellbeing = decent living standards for all (wellabove access and poverty thresholds)• End-use transformations (efficiency, electrification) drive
upstream decarbonization• Low resource use (energy, materials, land, water, …)• Significant SDG synergies = remain within planetary
boundaries for climate, land-use, biodiversity, ...
• Key concept = services (i.e., amenities or functionalities likethermal comfort, mobility, or nutrition that constitute wellbeing)• focus on outputs and outcomes, instead of resource or economic inputs• New Trends in Social and Technological Change•••••

Changing consumer preferences (e.g., diets)
Generational change in materialism (access rather than ownership)
New business models (sharing & circular economy)
Pervasive digitalization and ICT convergence
Rapid innovation in granular technologies
and integrated digital services
Source: Wilson, Grubler, and Zimm(2022). Energy-Services Led Transformation. In: Routledge Handbook of Energy Transitions(Ed: Araujo).
Grubler et al. (2018).

60 options identified
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Low demand pathways vary by income and development stage
Decent living standards

Source: IPCC AR6 Ch 5, adapted from Oswald et al. (2020)

60 options identified
withmitigation
potential in demandsideSIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

Demand and services⎻

Demand-side mitigation encompasseschanges in infrastructure use, end-use
technology adoption, and socio-cultural andbehavioural change.

⎻more efficient end-use energy conversion canimprove services while reducing the need forupstream energy by 45% by 2050 compared to2020⎻

There are regional differences in potential⎻

Lowest quartile of population require
additional housing, nutrition, energy andresources for human wellbeing[Bosch, Unsplash/Yoav Aziz, Adam Bartoszewicz, Victor Hernandez]

The
totalAssessment
emission mitigation
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GROUPemissions
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gasWORKING(GHG)
to halfof the current level or less

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORTWorking Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

Demandandservices

LM=DSF through pricing,Monitoring, AI, storage
diversification[Bosch, Unsplash/Yoav Aziz, Adam Bartoszewicz, Victor Hernandez]

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORTWorking Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

Combine behavioral
interventions
••

•

•

Social norms that recognize thesocial and planetary domain
Taxes on positional
goods/status consumption
Street space rededication (1kmbike lane increases bicycle
modal share by 0.6% inaverage
Choice architectures (feedback,social comparison, economic
incentives, defaults, etc.) –help
in presenting choices for better
decision making by individuals

5-30% of global annual GHG emissions
from end-use sectors are avoidable by2050, compared to 2050 emissions
projection of two scenarios consistent withpolicies announced by national
governments until 2020:
through changes in the built environment,
new and repurposed infrastructures andservice provision through compact cities,
co-location of jobs and housing, more
efficient use of floor space and energy inbuildings, and reallocation of street space
for active mobility

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ChangeMitigation options in urban areas

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
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Mitigation options in agriculture and forestry

Closing investment gaps⎻

financial flows: 3-6x lower than levels
needed by 2030 to limit warming to below
1.5°C or 2°C⎻

there is sufficient global capital andliquidity to close investment gaps⎻

challenge of closing gaps is widest fordeveloping countries[Tobias/Unsplash, Rwanda Green Fund /CC BY-SA 2.0]

People matters

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
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Accelerated climate action iscritical to sustainable development[Duy Pham/Unsplash]

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

ew research needed to understand costs of demand side options, The
working of economic systems under a well-being-driven rather thanGDP-driven paradigm requires better understanding

sually Policies that are aimed at behaviour and lifestyle changes comewith political risks for policymakers-need better understanding[Duy Pham/Unsplash]SixthAssessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE“The evidence isclear:

The time foraction is now[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change●Demand side options improve wellbeingMitigation options in agriculture and forestry

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change

ew research needed to understand costs of demand side options, The
working of economic systems under a well-being-driven rather thanGDP-driven paradigm requires better understanding

sually Policies that are aimed at behaviour and lifestyle changes comewith political risks for policymakers-need better understanding[Duy Pham/Unsplash]