Future	  plans	  of	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  the	  Telescope	  Array	  experiment	
Shoichi	  Ogio	  (Osaka	  City	  University)	  Future	  plans	  of	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  the	  Telescope	  Array	  experiment	• Three	  future	  plans	  • One	  is	  ongoing	  project....	  
• Personal	  idea	  included	  .....	  as	  a	  beginning	  of	  discussions	  Future	  plans	  of	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  the	  Telescope	  Array	  experiment	• Three	  future	  plans	  • One	  is	  ongoing	  project....	  
• Personal	  idea	  included	  .....	  as	  a	  beginning	  of	  discussions	  	  Two	  out	  of	  thee	  plans	  are	  	  not	  fully	  approved	  	  	  	  	  	  by	  the	  TA	  collaboraEon	  TELESCOPE	  ARRAY	  HYBRID	  DETECTOR	

▶507	  scinEllator	  detector	  covering	  680	  km2	  ▶3	  ﬂuorescence	  detector	  staEons,	  38	  telescopes	  ▶Full	  operaEon	  since	  March	  2008	  ▶SD	  array	  relaEve	  size	  TA	  ~	  AGASA	  x	  7	  ~	  Auger	  /	  4	  Electron beam

ELS(Electron	  Light	  Source)	
100m

ELS

Shot:	  Sep.	  5,	  2010,	  4:30UTC	  Energy:	  41.1	  MeV	Event Display of ELSLongitudinal	
ShowerLateral	First Shot

Data : Sep.5th .2010. AM04:30 ( UTC )in Sep.2010

Energy : 41.1MeV

DATA

850

Preliminary

Summary	  of	  the	  results	  from	  TA	800

<Xmax>!"#$%&'&()(*+,-+(.(-/0123#(750!"#!$%&'()*!*)&
900'+,$-$(&,(!.-(/!0-1&$2
850
650
Preliminary
3!4567!#8#9#
6003!:567!#;<&)!
800
1818.2 18.4 18.6 18.8
1919.2!
!=7!>-??&)&,'&!?)+@!(/&!ABC!
log(E/eV)!

700!"#$%&'&()(*+(,(-./<Xmax>

Preliminary	

P QGSJET-IIP QGSJET-01
P SIBYLLFe QGSJET-IIFe QGSJET-01
Fe SIBYLL

19.4

19.6

19.8

20750
DE*F-@+(+!&(!*G2!-,!"#HI*<*,+!!
!&(!*G2H#-)AGJK!
!L557!(+(*G 700$J$(&@*(-'!;,'&)(*-,(J650-,!M+(/!"#!N!#;<&)

Sharp	  cutoﬀ	  @	  log10E	  ~	  19.8	

O!P,&)<J!9'*G&(9&(!9Q!&,&)<J!$'*G&!(+!AQ!;$-,<!0JM)->!&R&,($S!5T7!)&,+)@*G-U*(-+,!
5T7!)&,+)@*G-U*(-+,Preliminary	  results	  are	  .....	  

consistent	  with	  GZK	  feature	  	E	  >	  57EeV	  20	  events	  KS	  p	  =	  0.17	

L'M'$N!M*OP
QRJS>KNHH()*+,-./+01)231452167
600
1818.2 18.4 18.6 18.8
1919.2 19.4 19.6 19.8
2026+01)217851)9log(E/eV)
234$'/'"#3%
29*+:31-.3;+:*321<=*45"5(4+Isotropic	

P QGSJET-IIP QGSJET-01
P SIBYLLFe QGSJET-IIFe QGSJET-01
Fe SIBYLL

Xmax	  are	  consistent	  	  with	  >7*38;+?)+@,-./A“purely	  1ry	  proton”	

LSS+GMF	Θs = 6°	!" ## #$KS	  p	  =	  0.77	  %" && !&$!M
G36267
H367&'CompaEble	  with	  Isotropic	  &	  LSS+GMF	  Future	  Plan	  1:	  TA	  Low	  Energy	  Extension	
▶ GalacEc-­‐to-­‐ExtragalacEc	  transiEon	  ▶ iron	  knee	  ▶ second	  knee	  ▶ Air	  shower	  model@1017eV	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  (LHC,	  Hybrid,	  ELS)	  900

850

Preliminary<Xmax>

800

750

700

HiRes,	  HiRes+MIA	

650
600
18

P QGSJET-IIP QGSJET-01
P SIBYLLFe QGSJET-IIFe QGSJET-01
Fe SIBYLLTA	  stereo	  FD	
18.2

18.4

18.6

18.8

1919.2log(E/eV)

19.4

19.6

19.8

20

TA	  Low	  Energy	  Extension	  (TALE)		  ElevaEon	  TALE	  mirrors	  TA	  Middle	  Drum	  	  azimuth,	  degrees	  north	  of	  east	  	  400	  m	  spacing:	  35	  600	  m	  spacing:	  46	  AddiEonally	  install	  14	  FD	  telescopes	  (from	  HiRes	  II)	  and	  105	  SDs	  		  1.2	  km	  spacing:	  24	  TA	  Low	  Energy	  Extension	  (TALE)	
Ring	  3:	  31o	  -­‐	  45o	  TALE	  mirrors	  	  ElevaEon	  Ring	  4:	  45o	  -­‐	  59o	  TA	  Middle	  Drum	  	  azimuth,	  degrees	  north	  of	  east	  TA	  Middle	  Drum	  TALE	  FDs	  	  400	  m	  spacing:	  35	  600	  m	  spacing:	  46	  	  1.2	  km	  spacing:	  24	  Same	  design/speciﬁcaSons	  as	  TA	  SD	  SpeciﬁcaEons	  of	  TALE	
SD	  trigger	  log10(Emode)	  =	  16.5	  	  ~50,000	  events/yr	  	  ElevaEon	  TALE	  mirrors	  +,-.%/0/12%,32/%

TA	  Middle	  Drum	  	  azimuth,	  degrees	  north	  of	  east	  $1/,5*%.-62,-+72-81%89%%!"#$%&'($%))*$'/0/126%	  400	  m	  spacing:	  35	  Hybrid	  trigger	  log10(Emode)	  =	  17.3	  	  ~5,000	  events/yr	   600	  m	  spacing:	  46	  	  1.2	  km	  spacing:	  24	  To	  Solve	  the	  discrepancy...	  	  	Longitudinal EAS Development with Auge

Comparison of Spectra

1019

2!10191020<Xmax> [g/cm2]

18.5

800

average depth
750

Auger ICRC11

19energy scale difference of ∼ 20%?

19.5201018750700

The	  working	  groups	  were	  organized	  and	  will	  conEnue	  to	  make	  eﬀort	  to	  solve	  these	  problems.	  Not	  only	  exchanging	  data/exchanging	  calibraEon	  devices,	  etc....,	  but	  also	  I	  would	  like	  to	  propose	  exchanging	  experimental	  equipment	  themselves	  between	  TA	  and	  Auger.	

619 457

331 230 188

143

p

650

800

20.5

log10(E/eV)

998 7811251
1407

EPOSv1.99
QGSJET01 700
SIBYLL2.1
QGSJETII

850

998 781
1251
1407

70619

457 331 230 188

143

186

106

1019

4760
5012511407
998 781 619

fluctuations Auger	  FD	

186

47

106

Fe

70

23Fe

20

E [eV]

1251
1407
998 781 619

457

40E [eV]1018

230 188
143

✞1019

186

20

✝

10647

Fe
P. Facal [AugerColl

1018

1019

✞

P. Facal [Auger Coll.], icrc725

850

Preliminary

E [eV]

☎✆

800

34750

700

650

TA	  stereo	  FD	6001818.2

18.4

18.6

18.8

1919.2log(E/eV)

143p

0331

✝

900

230 188

1050

01019

331

60

101018

457

40
30

30650

<Xmax>TA 201118.5

850

RMS(Xmax) [g/cm2]

17.5

16.5
18p

Longitudinal EAS Development with Auger FD

1817

EPOSv1.99
QGSJET01
SIBYLL2.1
QGSJETII

RMS(Xmax) [g/cm2]

2!1018Comparison	  of	  	  longitudinal	  average depth EAS	  development	
fluctuations

E[eV]
2!1020<Xmax> [g/cm2]

10log ( E2.68 J /(m-2 s-1 sr-1 eV1.68))

Comparison	  of	  spectra	

19.4

P QGSJET-IIP QGSJET-01
P SIBYLLFe QGSJET-IIFe QGSJET-01
Fe SIBYLL

19.6

19.8

20

Future	  Plan	  2:	  Exchange	  FDs	  /	  SDs	▶ 2	  TA	  FD	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  1	  Auger	  FD	  	  	  	  	  	  	  (FOV	  ~	  20o	  -­‐	  30o)	  	  	  	  	  	  	  esEmated	  cost	  ~	  $1M	  ▶ 1	  TA	  staEon	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  1	  Auger	  staEon	  	  	  	  	  	  +	  100	  TA	  SDs	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  +	  100	  Auger	  SDs	  	  	  	  	  	  esEmated	  cost	  ~	  $10M	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  (for	  TA	  <	  $5M)	  What	  we	  know	  about	  UHECRs	  ?	
Telescope	  Array’s	  observaEons	  suggests	  that	  ▶(Spectrum)	  Sharp	  cut	  oﬀ	  @	  the	  highest	  energy	  ▶(ComposiEon)	  purely	  protons	  @	  E	  >1018eV	  GZK	  mechanism	  Discrepancy	  must	  be	  solved	  near	  future,	  I	  hope..	  What	  we	  know	  about	  UHECRs	  ?	
Telescope	  Array’s	  observaEons	  suggests	  that	  ▶(Spectrum)	  Sharp	  cut	  oﬀ	  @	  the	  highest	  energy	  ▶(ComposiEon)	  purely	  protons	  @	  E	  >1018eV	  GZK	  mechanism	  Discrepancy	  must	  be	  solved	  near	  future,	  I	  hope..	  

What	  we	  don’t	  know	  about	  UHECRs	  ?	

What	  we	  know	  about	  UHECRs	  ?	
Telescope	  Array’s	  observaEons	  suggests	  that	  ▶(Spectrum)	  Sharp	  cut	  oﬀ	  @	  the	  highest	  energy	  ▶(ComposiEon)	  purely	  protons	  @	  E	  >1018eV	  GZK	  mechanism	  Discrepancy	  must	  be	  solved	  near	  future,	  I	  hope..	  

What	  we	  don’t	  know	  about	  UHECRs	  ?	

Origin	  of	  UHECRs	  (Sources,	  AcceleraEon	  mechanism,	  propagaEon...）	

In	  order	  to	  idenEfy	  point	  sources...	
ObservaEons	  should	  be	  concentrated	  on	  	  the	  highest	  energy	  =	  To	  limit	  the	  number	  of	  sources	ρs	  =	  10-­‐4	  Mpc-­‐3	Sources	  within	  GZK	  sphere	
E=1019.6	  eV	  RGZK~	  200	  Mpc	  Ns	  ~	  4000	  E=1019.8	  eV	  RGZK~	  60	  Mpc	  Ns	  ~	  100	  E=1020.0	  eV	  RGZK~	  30	  Mpc	  Ns	  ~	  10	  In	  order	  to	  idenEfy	  point	  sources...	
To	  resolve	  sources,	  	  Ns	  x	  Ω(source	  resoluEon)	  	  <	  4π 	then,	  we	  should	  set	  ...	  	  	  	  log10Eth	  =	  19.8	  -­‐	  19.9	

(log10E)	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  (Ns)	  19.6	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  ~4000	  19.8	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  ~100	  20.0	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  ~10	  Ns*Ω	  =	  4π	DeﬂecSon	  angle	

11o	  3.2o	  0.8o	  19.8	

detector	  	  resoluEon,	  2.1o,	  	  included	  !"#$%&'()*)#
OpEmized	  detector	  s
pacing	$+,-./-,#&%0#12+3)/-,#
Spacing	  =	  1.2	  km	  	!

43-#15676898#,:;#!

$+,-./-,#

TA	  SD	  array	  	$+,-./-,#
100%	  eﬃciency	  	  	  @	  log10E	  =	  18.8	!

!

12+3)/-,#!

!

<77#=>?#)-##?#)-#(-#95%	  eﬃciency	  	  @	  log10E	  =	  19.8	
?@77#=>!"#$%#"&'()$'(*'#*+,)-".")/+,'#%&'()"(-)0%"#1.2)$%.,)

12+3)/-,#

Simple	  MC: 	  	  3m2	  scinEllator	  SD	  Square	  grid	  	  	  Spacing	  =	  2.0	  km	Future	  Plan	  3:	  Huge	  air	  shower	  array	
AGASA	
TA-­‐SD	

10,000	  SDs	  Auger	

TA-­‐2	Spacing	  =	  2.0km	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  39,200	  km2	  	  TA	  x	  57.8	  Auger	  x	  13.1	  Number	  of	  events/(year*bin)	

Expected	  results	
TA-­‐2	TA-­‐SD		  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  [events/yr]	  log10E	  >	  19.8	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  257.9	  log10E	  >	  19.9	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  84.7	  log10E	  >	  20.0	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  	  25.6	  	  	  	  	  	  	  (*	  E	  >	  57	  EeV	  	  	  	  	  	  	  434.5)	  10EeV	 3788	  /yr	40EeV	 1218	  /yr	

57EeV	 434.5	  /yr	

Number of events required todiscriminate a structure modelwith an isotropic one (95% C.L.)

Even	  if	  smearing	  angle	  ~	  20o,	  	  isotropic	  ó	  LSS	  can	  be	  discriminated	  w	  95	  %	  CL	smearing	  =	  20o	Source	  IdenEﬁcaEon	

ATO

Vol. 678

G. G OLUP et al. S EARCH FOR MULTIPLETS IN P IERRE AUGER O BSERVATORY DATA

log10E	  >	  19.8,	  10-­‐5	  Mpc-­‐3,	  	  with	  EGMF	  	  (Takami	  &	  Sato,	  2008)	

gure 1: Distribution for 100 simulated 14-plets of W (left panel) and C(u, 1/E) (right panel). The vertical dashed lines
dicate the cuts on W and C optimized for multiplicity and significance (Section 3).

19.8"5 Arrival
Fig.103.—
distributionsof Galactic
UHE protons
above 10The
eV predicted by the same source distribution used in Fig. 2. The upper panels show those taking into accounturce distribution with
Mpc"3 (upperright) incoordinates.
propagationthe EGMF
B ¼within
0:1 !G;
panelsare the same, but for B ¼ 0:4 !G.
ersely proportional
to sourceindistances.
Thewithsources
50 lowerMpc areshown
lower middle), and 2000 (lower right) simulated events.

ximum acceleration energy at UHECR sources. For each source
tribution, we calculate a factor for the trajectory of the jth pare, which represents the relative probability that the jth protonl reach the Earth,
Pselec (E; j) /XidN=dEg (di; j ; Egi ) dEg
1: ð2Þ
E"1:0dE(1 þ zi; j )di;2jEnergy-­‐posiEon	  correlated	  mulEplet	  will	  be	  helpful	  (Golup	  for	  the	  Auger	  collaboraEon,	  2011)	

Angular	  and	  energy	  resoluSons	  are	  essenSally	  important	  for	  source	  idenSﬁcaSons	  and	  EG/GMF	  studies.	

gure 2: Observed multiplets with 10 or more events in galactic coordinates. The size of the circle is proportional to theergy of the event. Plus signs indicate the positions of the potential sources for each multiplet. One decaplet is in fact
ree dependent decaplets that are formed by the combination of twelve events and the three corresponding reconstructions
i; ji; jthe potential sources are shown.

re i labels sources on each trajectory, z and d , are theirshift and distance, respectively, and Egi is the energy of a pro-Cost	  and	  Schedule	▶ 10,000	  SDs,	  Spacing	  =	  2.0km	  	  ▶ total	  coverage	  39,200	  km2	  (TA	  x	  57.8,	  Auger	  x	  13.1)	  ▶ ($10,000	  per	  SD)	  x	  10,000	  SDs	  =	  $100M	  *Including	  the	  deployment	  cost	  **Expected	  10%	  cost-­‐down	  from	  TA-­‐SD	  	  	  JFYFuture Plan 1
TALE1 (FDs, 30 SDs)
TALE2 (+80 SDs)

Future Plan 2Exchange FDs & SDs

Future Plan 3
Huge SD array

2011

2012

2013

Production,Deployment
Apply

Production,Deployment

Apply

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Observation

Production.
Deployment

Organization, Survey,
Application

Calibrations, Exchange,
Observation

Lands, Staking, Production, Deployment
Observation

2021

Summary	  (1)	• Future	  Plan	  3:	  Huge	  air	  shower	  array	  – Concentrate	  on	  the	  highest	  energies	  • Set	  95%	  eﬃciency	  @log10E	  =	  19.8	  –	  19.9	  	  – 40,000km2	  =>	  10	  sources	  and	  25	  events	  for	  E	  >	  1020	  eV	  – Need	  good	  angular	  and	  good	  energy	  resoluEon	  – Need	  study	  for	  design	  opEmizaEon	  • ScinEllator,	  water	  tank	  or	  other	  type	  ?	  
• Size,	  spacing	  	  • SensiSvity	  for	  neutrinos	  and	  for	  composiSon?	  Summary	  (2)	• Future	  Plan	  1:	  TA	  Low	  energy	  Extension	  (TALE)	  – Ongoing	  project	  – 14	  FDs	  +	  35	  SDs	  systems	  will	  start	  working	  early	  2013	  • Future	  Plan	  2:	  Exchange	  FDs	  +	  SDs	  – Check	  systemaEcs:	  real	  same	  CR	  events,	  same	  CLF,	  	  	  same	  ELS	  beams,	  event	  by	  event	  bases.	  
– Solve	  discrepancies	  in	  energy	  scale	  and	  Xmax	  – CriEcally	  important	  step	  for	  further	  extension	  of	  UHECR	  research