How do you knowthat your product works?
Consultant
www.crisp.se

Lean Kanban Central Europe keynote
Nov 2014

Henrik Kniberg

Parenthenrik.kniberg@crisp.se@HenrikKniberg

Agile & Lean coachAuthor

Todo

Henrik Kniberg?
(bunch ofothercolumns)

DoneWhere’s myproduct?
Todo(bunch ofothercolumns)

Codecommitted

I’m done!

Henrik Kniberg

Developer

User

Where’s myproduct?
Code
Testedcommitted

We’re Done!

Henrik Kniberg

Developer

User

In
Code
Testedcommitted
production

We’re Done!
100% completed requirements
No reported defects

Henrik Kniberg

Wait... is anyoneactually using it?

In
CodeTested
committed
production

Peopleactually
use itNOW we’resurely done!

100% completed requirements
No reported defects

Henrik Kniberg

Aren’t we?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWTtcOQjOXIHenrik Kniberg

Code
Testedcommitted

PeopleInproduction actually

100% completed requirements
No reported defects

Henrik Kniberg

use itCode
Testedcommitted

PeopleInproduction actually

100% completed requirements
No reported defects

Henrik Kniberg

use itSolves theuser’s
problemHenrik Kniberg

Value ofyour solution

Henrik Kniberg

Value of
Value of oldyour solution solution

Relative gain

Henrik Kniberg

Value of
Value of old
your solution solution

Relative
Relative
Pain/Cost
Gain
Henrik Kniberg

Code
Testedcommitted

Inproduction

Peopleactually
use itRelative
Relative
Pain/CostGain
Henrik Kniberg

Solves theuser’s
problem... in a waythat isbetter thanbefore

Code
Testedcommitted

Inproduction

Peopleactually
use itSolves theuser’s
problem... in a waythat isbetter than
beforePeople use it
willingly

Relative
Relative
Pain/Cost
Gain
Henrik Kniberg... andrecommend itto othersEscaping the Big Bang

Henrik Kniberg01:32

All products start with a Great Idea!

Henrik Kniberg

Risk

Business risk

Technical riskSocial risk
Cost & schedule risk
Henrik Kniberg

GoogleBuzz

Henrik Kniberg

GoogleWaveGoogleAnswers

Assume you are building the WRONG thing!
Suppose we’rebuilding the wrong
thing....
How can we find out
as quickly as
possible?

• List your hypotheses• Build an MVP to validate/invalidate it• ”Minimum Viable Product” – the fastest & cheapest thing
you can build to field-test your hypothesis
Henrik Kniberg

Example:Hypotheses
1. File sync is aproblem for people

2. Our product willsolve the problem

3. People will want
to use our productHenrik Kniberg

Original dropbox demoHenrik Kniberg

Dropbox MVPHenrik Kniberg

Dropbox MVP

It drove hundreds of thousands ofpeople to the website.
Our beta waiting list went from
5,000 people to 75,000
people literally overnight.

Henrik Kniberg

Drew

It totally blew usaway.

AARRR!

Pirate metrics

Do people
come?

Aquisition
Activation
Retention
Referral
RevenueHenrik Kniberg

Do they use theproduct?
Do they comeback?
Do they recommend
it to others?
Do they pay?

Don’t rely ONLY on hard data

Data & metrics

1 corner = maybe build it
2 corners = probably build it
3 corners = definitely build it

User forums& feedback
Henrik Kniberg

Gut feel & experiencePaper Prototyping = Lo-tech MVP

Credit: Ariel Waldman, on Interaction Design/ Rachel Ilan
http://chiefdisruptionofficer.com/helpful-rapid-prototyping-methods-and-tools-to-bring-digital-ideas-to-life-fast/All products start with a Great Idea!

Henrik Kniberg

Big Bang = Big Risk

10%
succeeded38%
totally failed1

Source: Chaos Manifesto 2013, Standish group

Cumulative
RISK Value
Henrik Kniberg

Agile/Lean = Iterative + Incremental
Don’t try to get it all rightfrom the beginning

cost

RISK

Henrik Kniberg

Don’t build it all at oncevalue

costvalueNot like this....

1

2

3

4

Like this!

1
Henrik Kniberg

2

3

4

5

Fastest learner wins!

Delivery frequency = Speed of learning
Stakeholders, Users

Feedback,
Requests,
Data

Demos,Releases

Development teamHenrik Kniberg

Release must be REALLY easy!

Release = Drama!
Release!

Req

ReleaseseldomCodeReleaseis big

Test

Releaseis hardRelease = Routine

Releaseoften
Henrik Kniberg

Release issmall

Release issimple

Planning gets easier with frequent releases

Henrik Kniberg

Decoupling to enablefrequent releases

Client App squad!#?

Feature squads

Henrik Kniberg

Continuous Delivery = Deployment is so easythat even an Agile Coach can do it!

Henrik Kniberg

Release trains & Feature toggles

Henrik Kniberg

Henrik Kniberg

Improving the Value CurveRISK
Big Bang

Big increments

Value

Henrik Kniberg

EffortSmall increments

Highest value firstMaximize Value, not Output

High Output

High ValueHenrik Kniberg

ValueHenrik Kniberg

01:32

What is value?

Henrik Kniberg

How are you improving people’s lives?

People can easily find theinfo they need
People enjoy more music

Patrolling police can dotheir job more effectively
Henrik Kniberg

People have funPust Java2010

Henrik Kniberg

2011

Slice the elephant!
RegionÖstergötland,Uppsala, etc

1.0
Crime types(weapon,drunk driving,shoplifting, etc)

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.2
1.5

PUST Java
Integrations

Henrik Kniberg

Pust Java
Iterative
delivery

Focus on value& impact

Big Bangdelivery2010Henrik Kniberg

Pust Siebel
2011

2012

Focus onfeaturecompleteness2013

How are you improving people’s lives?

People can easily find theinfo they needPatrolling police can dotheir job more effectively
Henrik Kniberg

People enjoy more music

People have funHenrik Kniberg

Done level 1: ”sufficient for decision”

Henrik Kniberg

Done level 2: ”sufficient for playtesting”

Henrik Kniberg

Done level 3: ”sufficient for alpha/beta release”

Henrik Kniberg

Done level 4: ”sufficient for final release”

Henrik Kniberg

Finding the fun – step by stepFeature1Feature
2

Feature3

Sufficientfor decision
Sufficientfor playtest
Sufficient foralpha/beta

Feature5Feature6124156

7

Feature733

Sufficient
for release

Henrik Kniberg

Feature4Feature86

We make digital toys
for kids.

Find out what’s fun BEFORE building the product!

Henrik Kniberg

Definition of Fun

How are you improving people’s lives?

People can easily find theinfo they needPatrolling police can dotheir job more effectively
Henrik Kniberg

People enjoy more music

People have fun

Idea/Problem“Radio youcan save!”Backlog Developing

Released

Impactachieved

Narrative & Metrics& Prototypes
Build MVP

Minimum Viable ProductTweakDeploy

to X% of users

Impact A/B test

Analyze data

Henrik Kniberg

Minimize distance between Maker and User
1

People(# of handoffs)

2

Maker

User

Time(feedback delay)
Henrik Kniberg

3

Wrapup

Henrik Kniberg

01:32

There are no hard problems.
Just hard solutions.

Jerry Weinberg

Henrik Kniberg

Lean = get fast by reducing waste
Don’t increase the speed

Henrik Kniberg

Reduce the distance!

Lean = get fast by building less stuffDon’t maximize
the speed

Minimize thedistance
MVPHenrik Kniberg

What you measure is what you get
Focusing on

EffortFocusing on

OutputHours

Time reports

Resource utilization

Backlog Developing

Released!

Focusing on

Outcome/Impact/Value
Henrik Kniberg$$$$

ProductProduct
UserFeedback

Henrik Kniberg

All products start with a Great Idea!

Henrik Kniberg

All products start with a Great Idea!

an Unsolved Problem!

Henrik Kniberg

ensureHow do you know that your product works?
Who are thestakeholders?

1. Understand theproblem

What need do they have,that we want to solve?
How will we know
when we’ve solvedit?
How will we know if we’removing in the right direction?

2. Iterate until
you’ve solved it
Henrik Kniberg

Minimize the distance to MVP
Deliver, measure, adjustcontinuously

PDCA....
Build Measure Learn....
Inspect Adapt...
Probe Sense Respond...