Charting an Ambitious U.S. NDC
Leon Clarke
March 9, 2021

The Paris Agreement (2015)

The Second U.S. Biennial Report (2016)

The U.S. Mid-Century Strategy (2016)

Source: U.S. Mid-Century Strategy (2016)

The U.S. Mid-Century Strategy (2016)

Today the United States began theprocess to withdraw from the ParisAgreement. Per the terms of theAgreement, the United States
submitted formal notification of its
withdrawal to the United
Nations. The withdrawal will takeeffect one year from delivery of thenotification.

The U.S. Rejoins the Paris Agreement

At https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/20/paris-climate-agreement/

United States Climate Alliance States

The United States Climate
Alliance is a bipartisan
coalition of 24 governors
committed to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions
consistent with the goals of
the Paris Agreement.

http://www.usclimatealliance.org/

Net-zero energy systems are different thanthose of today
1. zero- or negative carbon electricity systems;
2. Widespread electrification of end uses;
3. targeted use of alternative fuels such ashydrogen, bioenergy, and ammonia in hardto-decarbonise sectors;
4. substantially lower use of fossil fuels thantoday
5. energy conservation and efficiency
measures;
6. greater integration across energy systems;
7. CDR to offset emissions from hard-todecarbonise sectors.

The Bottom-Up Scenario: 2030 Strategy Platform
Accelerate toward 100%
Clean Electricity

Decarbonize Buildings,
Transportation & Industry

Enhance Ecosystem
Carbon Storage

Leading States:• 60% renewable electricity• No more coal plants• Peak and then reduce relianceon gas• Reduced methane emissions

Leading States:• New buildings 100% electric• Appliances replaced by electric at end-oflife• 2% EE improvement annually

Leading States incentivize
low-cost natural climatesolutions, such as:

Fast Follower States incorporate
more modest renewable standard
and slow gas builds
Market trends and advocacy
constrain coal and gas across thecountry, including in remainingstates• EVs = 2/3 new car sales• ICE performance increased 4% annually• Energy management, electrification, CCUS
in industry• HFCs phased down per Kigali Amendment
Fast Follower States go roughly half as far.

Remaining states make little progress.

• Natural forestmanagement• Optimal nutrient
application• Use of cover crops
Land carbon sink improved
11% compared to today

Clean Energy Buildout through 2030

Electricity Sector Actions
76% below 2005 and 28% ofoverall 51% reduction.
• Renewable Energy Incentives• Standards on existing coal
• Standards on existing gas• Standards on new gas• Incentives for Carbon Captureand Sequestration• Nuclear Retention Incentives

Transportation Sector Actions

40% below 2005 and 11% of
overall 51% reduction.
• Combustion Engine
Performance Standards• LDV ZEV incentives• M/HDV ZEV incentives

LULUCF

23% increase in CO2 update,representing 3% of 51%reduction.
Substantial new investment to pay forreforestation and improved land
management practices grow the land sector
sink to achieve -1000 TCO2e/year in LULUCFemissions.

Other Sectors and Actions• Building electrification• Building energy efficiency• Industry energy efficiency• Industry carbon capture andsequestration• Non-CO2s GHGs: CH4, N2O,HFCs

The U.S. Rejoins the Paris Agreement

At https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/20/paris-climate-agreement/

Thank You