TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS
Crash • Stats

DOT HS 813 199

A Brief Statistical Summary

October 2021

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for theFirst Half (January–June) of 2021
Summary

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first half of2021 shows that an estimated 20,160 people died in motor
vehicle traffic crashes. This represents an increase of about
18.4 percent as compared to 17,020 fatalities that were projected in the first half of 2020, as shown in Table 1. This
also represents the highest number of fatalities during thefirst half of the year since 2006 and the highest half-year
percentage increase in the history of data recorded by theFatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Also, the projected 11,225 fatalities during Q2 2021 represents the highest Q2 fatalities since 1990 and highest quarterly percentagechange (+23.1%) in FARS data recorded history. Preliminary
data reported by the Federal Highway Administration(FHWA) show that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the firsthalf of 2021 increased by about 173.1 billion miles, or abouta 13.0-percent increase as compared to the first half of 2020.
Also shown in Table 1 are the fatality rates per 100 million

VMT, by q­ uarter. The fatality rate for the first half of 2021
increased to 1.34 fatalities per 100 million VMT, up from theprojected rate of 1.28 fatalities per 100 million VMT in thefirst half of 2020. The fatality rate in Q2 has declined, which
represents the first decline in year-to-year quarterly fatality
rate since Q4 of 2019. For the NHTSA regional differences,
all 10 regions are estimated to have increases in fatalities,
and 6 of the 10 regions are estimated to have increases infatality rate per 100 million VMT in the first half of 2021 ascompared to the same half of 2020. The actual counts for2020 and 2021 and the ensuing percentage changes from2020 to 2021 will be further revised as the FARS annual
report files for 2020 are available later this year, as well as
when the FARS final file for 2020 and annual report file for2021 are available next year. These estimates will be further
refined when the projections for the first 9 months of 2021
are released in late December.

Table 1: Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Quarter, First Half, Full Year, and the Percentage Change From the Corresponding
Quarter, First Half or Full Year in the Previous Year
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Total(Jan–Mar)(Apr–Jun)(Jul–Sep)(Oct–Dec)(Full Year)
Fatalities and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Quarter From the Prior Year2011
6,726 [ -0.4%]
8,227 [ -3.5%]
8,984 [ -2.6%]
8,542 [ +0.5%]
32,479 [ -1.6%]
2012
7,521 [+11.8%]
8,612 [ +4.7%]
9,171 [ +2.1%]
8,478 [ -0.7%]
33,782 [ +4.0%]
2013
7,166 [ -4.7%]
8,207 [ -4.7%]
9,024 [ -1.6%]
8,496 [ +0.2%]
32,893 [ -2.6%]
2014
6,856 [ -4.3%]
8,179 [ -0.3%]
8,799 [ -2.5%]
8,910 [ +4.9%]
32,744 [ -0.5%]
2015
7,370 [ +7.5%]
8,823 [ +7.9%]
9,805 [+11.4%]
9,486 [ +6.5%]
35,484 [ +8.4%]
2016
8,154 [+10.6%]
9,563 [ +8.4%]
10,078 [ +2.8%]
10,011 [ +5.5%]
37,806 [ +6.5%]
2017
8,301 [ +1.8%]
9,460 [ -1.1%]
10,081 [ +0.0%]
9,631 [ -3.8%]
37,473 [ -0.9%]
2018
8,203 [ -1.2%]
9,323 [ -1.4%]
9,934 [ -1.5%]
9,375 [ -2.7%]
36,835 [ -1.7%]
20197,816 [ -4.7%]
9,172 [ -1.6%]
9,953 [ +0.2%]
9,155 [ -2.3%]
36,096 [ -2.0%]
2020†
7,900 [ +1.1%]
9,120 [ -0.6%]
11,305 [+13.6%]
10,355 [+13.1%]
38,680 [ +7.2%]
2021†
8,935 [+13.1%]
11,225 [+23.1%]———
Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
2011
0.98
1.09
1.18
1.17
1.10
2012
1.08
1.12
1.21
1.16
1.14
2013
1.04
1.07
1.17
1.16
1.10
2014
0.99
1.03
1.11
1.17
1.08
2015
1.03
1.08
1.20
1.21
1.15
2016
1.11
1.16
1.23
1.27
1.19
2017
1.12
1.13
1.21
1.20
1.17
1.10
1.11
1.18
1.15
1.14
2018
1.05
1.08
1.17
1.12
1.11
2019
1.12
1.46
1.49
1.41
1.37
2020†
1.29
1.38
—
—
—
2021†
†
2020 and 2021 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.
Sources: Fatalities: 2009–2018 FARS final file, 2019 FARS annual report file; VMT: FHWA June 2021 traffic volume trends for 2020 and 2021 VMT
Year

Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1st Half(Jan–Jun)
14,953 [ -2.1%]
16,133 [ +7.9%]
15,373 [ -4.7%]
15,035 [ -2.2%]
16,193 [ +7.7%]
17,717 [ +9.4%]
17,761 [ +0.2%]
17,526 [ -1.3%]
16,988 [ -3.1%]
17,020 [ +0.2%]
20,160 [+18.4%]
1.04
1.10
1.05
1.01
1.06
1.14
1.13
1.11
1.07
1.28
1.34

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 205902Figure 1 shows the historical trend of the percentagechange every quarter from the same quarter in the previous year, going back to 1979 (NHTSA has fatality data
since 1975). The shading in the chart depicts the years
during which there were significant numbers of consecutive quarters with increases/declines as comparedto the corresponding quarters of the previous years. Thedeclines during the early 1980s and 1990s lasted 11 consecutive quarters, while the most recent decline occurred

over 17 consecutive quarters ending in the second quarter of 2010. More recently, the significant increases infatalities occurred over 10 consecutive quarters ending
after the first quarter of 2017. The third and fourth quarter of 2020 and the first and especially the second quarterof 2021 showed significant increases in fatalities as compared to the corresponding quarters of 2019 and 2020.
The percentage increase in the second quarter of 2021 isactually the highest in FARS data recorded history.

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%-5%-10%-15%-20%

1981 Q2 to 1983 Q4(11 Quarters)

2006 Q2 to 2010 Q2(17 Quarters)

1990 Q4 to 1993 Q2(11 Quarters)

2014 Q4 to2017 Q1(10 Quarters)
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021% Changes

Figure 1: Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter as Compared to the Fatalities in the Same Quarter
During the Previous YearTo examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, thequarterly projections of fatalities, fatality rates, and VMTare further split into the respective monthly estimatesfor 2020 and 2021. The stay-at-home orders started inmid-March 2020, followed by the first full month of stayat-home measures that were in effect during April (thesmallest VMT in this month). During May some States
began to reopen in some way while almost all States partially reopened by June. After June each State continued
to adapt their local and statewide COVID-19 guidelines
and assess specific reopening and potential reclosing

efforts accordingly. Table 2 shows that fatalities are projected to have decreased in February (February 2020 was
a leap month) but increased in January and March–June
2021 (April and June are the months with the greatest andsmallest increases in fatalities, respectively). The fatality rate per 100 million VMT shows an increase during
January–March (1st quarter) 2021 (January is the monthwith the greatest increase in fatality rate) but a decreaseduring April–June (2nd quarter) 2021 (June is the monthwith the greatest decrease in fatality rate), as comparedto the corresponding month (quarter) in 2020.

Table 2: Fatalities, VMT, Fatality Rate by Month or Quarter in 2021, and the Percentage Change in Fatalities and VMTFrom the Corresponding Month or Quarter in 2020
1st Quarter
YearJanFebMar

2nd Quarter
Total

AprMayJun

3rd Quarter
Total

JulAugSep

4th Quarter
Total

OctNovDec

Total

Fatalities in 2021 and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Month and Quarter From 2020
†

2,665

2,675

2,560

7,900

2,310

3,095

3,715

9,120

3,770

3,820

3,715

11,305

3,795

3,430

3,130

10,355

2021†

3,105
16.5%

2,585
-3.4%

3,245
26.8%

8,935
13.1%

3,575
54.8%

3,850
24.4%

3,800
2.3%

11,22523.1%————————

2020

Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)/VMT (in Billion) and Percentage Change in VMT2020 †

1.06
251.7

1.14
233.9

1.16
221.1

1.12
706.7

1.39
165.9

1.46
212.7

1.51
246.8

1.46
625.0

1.45
260.1

1.51
252.8

1.50
247.2

1.49
760.1

1.46
259.1

1.47
233.6

1.28
244.1

1.41
736.8

2021†

1.39
1.26
1.24
223.2 205.3 262.6-11.3% -12.2% 18.8%

1.29
691.1
-2.2%

1.39
1.41
257.3 273.7
55.2% 28.9%

1.35
282.5
14.5%

1.38
813.5
30.2%

—

——

—

————

2020 and 2021 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.
Sources: VMT: FHWA June 2021 traffic volume trends for 2020 and 2021 VMT†Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

3Regional Differences

The statistical procedures employed in these projections
were generated for each NHTSA administrative region
and were collated to create the national estimate. This
allows for the comparison of regional estimates in 2021
with the reported 2020 counts. Figure 2 shows the percentage change in estimated fatalities in the first half of2021 from the reported fatalities in the same half of 2020
by NHTSA Region; all 10 regions experienced increases.

Figure 3 shows the comparison of the estimated fatality
rate per 100 million VMT in the first half of 2021 withthe estimated fatality rate per 100 million VMT in thesame half of 2020, by NHTSA Region; 6 of the 10 regions
presented increases. These estimates by NHTSA Region
shown in Figures 2 and 3 are subject to change as theFARS annual report files for 2020 and 2021 are available
later this year and next year, respectively.

Figure 2: Percentage Change in Estimated Fatalities in the First Half of 2021 From Estimated Fatalities in theSame Half of 2020, by NHTSA Region

26%Region
10AKWAORMN

MTNDID
WY
NV25%Region
925%Region
8UT

8%Region
KS
7OKNM

HI

TX

18%Region
6MIIL

OH

IN

IANE

CO

WI

19%Region
5SD

CA
AZ

11%
13%RegionRegion
VT ME
12NYCT
NH
MAPA
NJ
RI
MD
DE

MS

WV VA

KY

MONCTNAR

AL

10%Region
3SCGA

22%Region
4LA

DCFL

Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMTFigure 3: Comparison of Estimated Fatality Rate in the First Half of 2021 With Estimated Fatality Rate in theFirst Half of 2020, by NHTSA Region
2.00
2020

2021

1.50
1.00

1.54

1.66

1.55

1.65
1.35 1.30

1.34 1.31
1.01 1.07

1.01 1.01

1.30
1.05

1.41

1.14

1.11

1.21

0.78 0.77

0.50
0.00

1234

56

7

8910

NHTSA Region
Source: FHWA June 2021 Traffic Volume Trends for 2020 and 2021 VMTPublished by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

4Discussion

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were marked
increases in fatalities and the fatality rate per 100 million
VMT in 2020. This increased trend in fatalities has continued into the first half of 2021 (the degree of increase has
greatly reduced in June). The increased trend in fatality
rate per 100 million VMT continued into the first quarter of 2021, but this fatality rate has already decreased in
the second quarter of 2021 compared to 2020 (June is themonth with the greatest decrease). NHTSA is continuing to gather and finalize data on crash fatalities for 2020
and 2021 using information from police crash reports
and other sources. The annual report files for 2020 and2021 will be available in late fall of this year and 2022,
respectively, which usually results in the revision of fatality totals and the ensuing fatality rates and percentagechanges.

Data and Method

The data used in this analysis comes from several
sources: NHTSA’s FARS, Early Notification (EN) data,
and Monthly Fatality Counts (MFC) (the EN and MFC
data are not available to the public); and from FHWA’s
VMT estimates. FARS is a census of fatal traffic crashes in
the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.
To be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motorvehicle traveling on a trafficway and must result in thedeath of at least one person (occupant of a vehicle or anonoccupant) within 30 days of the crash. FARS final
files from January 2003 to December 2018 and FARSAnnual Report file in 2019 are used. The EN programis designed as an Early Fatality Notification System tocapture fatality counts from States more rapidly and provide near-real-time notification of fatality counts from all
jurisdictions reporting to FARS. The MFC data provide
monthly fatality counts by State through sources that areindependent from the EN or FARS systems. MFCs fromJanuary 2003 up to June 2021 are used. MFCs are reported
mid-month for all prior months of the year. In order toestimate the traffic fatality counts for 2020, time series
crosssection regression was applied to analyze the datawith both cross sectional values (by NHTSA Region) andtime series (by month), to model the relationship among
FARS, MFC, and EN, the details of which are available ina Research Note (Statistical Methodology to Make Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, Report No. DOT HS
811 123). The methodology used to generate the estimatesfor 2021 is the same as the one used by NHTSA to project
the increase in the fatalities for the whole of 2020 (Early
Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2020, Report
No. DOT HS 813 115).

The suggested APA format citation for this document is:
National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2021, October).
Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the firsthalf (January–June) of 2021 (Crash•Stats Brief Statistical
Summary. Report No. DOT HS 813 199). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

For questions regarding the information presented inthis report, please contact NCSARequests@dot.gov. ThisCrash•Stats and other general information on traffic safety
can be found at https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/
Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590
15405-102821-v3a