Content
Human society and risk: a focus ontransportation and disaster• Disaster and evacuation planning in Australia– floods, fires and cyclones (typhoons)

A perspective from Australia• Vulnerability analysis– focus on regional areas

Emeritus Professor Michael A P Taylor
University of South Australia

Natural disasters in Australia• Floods, then cyclones, then bushfires (in terms of $)• But bushfires, then cyclones, then floods (fatalities)• Bushfire most difficult to manage– high speed of onset, restricted time for warnings– dynamic and ‘unpredictable’– significant populations at risk
• exurbia, peri-urban settlements– is evacuation feasible, and if so, when?

• Road safety audit– the general problem in society of road safety– helping the road user/consumer

Changing circumstances• Climate change– Australia: generally drier, but more
severe weather events• Demographic change– ageing population– population growth and migration toexurbia– thus increasing peri-urban populations• in areas of increasing fire risk

• Limited (road) infrastructure– 2 lane roads in difficult terrain

Review of practice and models

Review of practice and models• Process model: stay or go– more precisely, ‘prepare, stay and defend; or go early’• worst place to be in fire is in the open (even in car)• last minute evacuation is lethal

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•

Fire services will not be able to cover all dwellings‘Household action plans’, prepared beforehand
If staying, must be fit, prepared and equipped… evacuation not mandatory

Cyclone risk
Brisbane
PerthSydney

Adelaide

Bushfire risk
Melbourne

Bushfire prediction models• Consider– fire risk indices (FDI)– fire risk management model (e.g. Phoenix)– behavioural response model

Bushfire prediction models: Phoenix• 3 main components– business model– fire characterisation model– fire impact model[source: Tolhurst et al, 2008]

New circumstances• Exceptional heatwave in
SE Australia, 27 Jan – 7Feb 2009
• Massive bushfires ravaged
the state of Victoria on
Saturday 7 February• ‘Off the scale’

New circumstances: ‘Black Saturday’• Satellite imagery of fires– 3 pm Saturday 7 February– FDI exceeded all previously
expected values!
Source: BOM (2010), US MODIS Aqua
satellite at about 04 UTC 09/02/07

New circumstances: ‘Black Saturday’• 173 people died
• Many towns & villages
destroyed• 113 of the dead had
stayed at home
– apparently prepared– warnings?
– unprecedented ferocity

New circumstances: ‘Black Saturday’• Last minute evacuation?
• Consequences

Disaster and evacuation planning

Emergency management framework

Recommendations of Royal Commission:• Still ‘stay or go’, generally

Infrastructure
planning andmanagement
decisions– but safest way to survive is to be out of the area!

• New warning level, ‘Catastrophic’ [… just GO (beforehand)]• Better information on fire movements, for specific areas– Tools to determine risk levels for properties and localities– Provide information about ‘safe havens’– Advise residents about defensibility of their properties– Clear advice for planning of evacuations

Priorities
andactions

Decision support system
GIS
database
platform

Vulnerability
analysisRoad
network
performance

Criticallocations andfacilities

Disasterscenario

Behavioural
responses

Vulnerability analysis•Emergency planning and regional planning•

Vulnerability:•– the susceptibility to incidents that results inconsiderable reductions in network
serviceability
Incidents

Different time frames– road closures, restricted movement, anddelays (short term)– socio-economic consequences of isolationand separation (long term)•Serviceability

Vulnerability

Important for regional areas– characterised by ‘sparse’, low quality roadnetworks

Risk (probability, consequence)Vulnerability
Events which directly or
indirectly result in
considerable reductions
or interruptions in theserviceability of a link,route or network

Vulnerability

The opportunity to use a link, routeor network in a given time period• Incidents include:

Serviceability
The susceptibility toincidents that resultsin considerable
reductions innetwork
serviceability

Incidents– natural events (floods, landslides, …)– road crashes– infrastructure failures

Vulnerability
A composite of (1) theprobability for an incident
to occur and (2) the
resulting consequences of
its occurrence

Risk (probability, consequence)

Vulnerability•Consequences can be:– short term (traffic operations)– long term (socio-economic impact)– localised (isolation)– wide area (regional economic impact)

Vulnerability assessment• X

Road safety audit• Road safety is a major issue for societies everywhere• Road trauma is a major public health problem• Its overall seriousness may exceed considerations ofextreme events (disasters)

Road safety in the OECD countries (2012)
Fatalities per 100000 population

Fatalities per 10000 registered vehicles

Chile
South Korea
USA
PolandGreeceCzech Republic
New Zealand
Belgium
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Austria
Italy
Hungary
Canada(median)FranceAUSTRALIA
TurkeyFinlandGermany
Switzerland
Spain
JAPANMexico
IrelandNetherlands
IsraelSwedenDenmark
NorwayUK
Iceland

South Korea

South Korea
Czech Republic
New Zealand
Belgium
JAPANUSA
Austria
FranceAUSTRALIA
Switzerland(median)IsraelGermany
FinlandNetherlands
SwedenUK
IrelandDenmark
NorwayIcelandTurkeyHungary
PolandUSA
Portugal
Czech Republic
Belgium
GreeceSlovenia
IsraelNew Zealand
CanadaFranceAustria(median)Luxembourg
AUSTRALIA
Italy
IrelandGermany
JAPANSpain
Netherlands
UK
SwedenNorwayIceland4681012– to assess the safety risk in a proposed design (or existing situation)– uncovers potential safety problems• and points to solutions– requires engineer take the perspective of the road user
• how will ordinary people cope with the traffic situation?

0.5

1

1.5

2– investigates how the road environment may contribute to safety
problems• consider location ‘24/7’, i.e. under all conditions (day, night, fine, rain, …)• avoid response of ‘blame the victim’Denmark2• Method used in modern road design and traffic engineering:

0Finland
Switzerland

0Road safety audit

Fatalities per 100 million VKT

00.5

11.5

22.5

3

Road safety audit

Thank you for your attention
Discussion welcome