PREVENTING DISASTER :QUANTIFYING RISKS AT
THE UP DILIMAN
UNIVERSITY LIBRARIESEIMEE RHEA C. LAGRAMA
University of the Philippines Diliman

DISCUSSION
Brief BackgroundMethodology
Data Collection and Analysis
Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations

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UP DILIMAN LIBRARY SYSTEM
500 Hectares
33 Unit Libraries
1 Main Library
Library, Archives, Museum in One

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Gonzalez Hall
Home to the University Library,
University Archives, and Bulwagan ng
Dangal (University Heritage Museum)4

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Most Disaster-Prone Country(2000)
By the Center for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters
Map: United Nations Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Regional Office for the Asia and thePacific. (2006). Hazard maps

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http://ochaonline.un.org/roap/MapCentre/HazardMaps/tabid/3725/language/en-US/Default.aspx

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GOVERNMENT SUPPORTNational Disaster
Coordinating
Council• Disaster Response

National Disaster
Risk Response andManagementCouncil

But theseagencies arefor saving
human lives,
not culturalproperties• Disaster Preparedness

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REPUBLIC ACT NO. 10066(OR THE NATIONAL HERITAGE ACT OF 2009)…for the protection and conservation of the national cultural
heritage, strengthening the National Commission for Culture andthe arts (NCCA) and its affiliated cultural agencies, and for otherpurposes (p. 1)
In times of armed conflict, natural disasters, and otherexceptional events that endanger the cultural heritage of thecountry, all National Cultural Treasures or national historicallandmarks, sites or monuments shall be given priority protection
by the Government. (Art III, Section 7)

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DEFINITION OF TERMS
Risk Management• a formal method for collecting information aboutsomething (in this case, collections) and identifying
current or potential risks, prioritizing these risksaccording to their predicted occurrence andseverity, and then using that information to decide
what activities will best contribute to the longevityof the collection (Matthews & Feather, 2003).

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DEFINITION OF TERMS
Risk Analysis• The evaluation of the possibility of incurring loss,
damage, or injury and a determination of the amountof risk that is acceptable for a given situation or event.
(Moses, 2005).

Risk Assessment• The collection, organization and analysis of information
regarding risks. (Matthews & Feather, 2003).

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DEFINITION OF TERMS

Disaster Management• Steps taken by a library or archives to prepare
for serious damage to facilities, collections,
and/or personnel in the event of a major
occurrence such as a fire, flood, or earthquake,including preventive measures, formulation ofan effective disaster plan, maintenance ofadequate insurance, etc. (Reitz, 2010)12

DEFINITION OF TERMS
Hazard• a possible source of peril, duress or difficulty (Webster's Third New
International Dictionary of the English Language Unabridged, 1971).
• a condition that creates or increases the chance of loss (Rejda,2008).

Risk• dangerous element or factor, often used with qualifiers to indicatethat degree or kind of hazard (Webster's Third New International
Dictionary of the English Language Unabridged, 1971).
• an uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss (Rejda, 2008).

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METHODOLOGY14

RISK FORMULA

Probability

EffectRisk

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TYPES OF RISKSINTENSITY

F R E Q U E N C YConstant

Sporadic

Catastrophic

Type 1
Type 2

SevereGradual/Mild

Rare

Type 316

AGENTS OF DETERIORATION(MICHALSKI) (1)Physical forces

Fire

Water

Pests

ContaminantsCriminals

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AGENTS OF DETERIORATION(MICHALSKI) (2)Light and ultraviolet
radiation

Incorrect
temperature

Incorrect relative
humidity

Dissociation(custodial neglect)

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DATA COLLECTION AND
ANALYSIS

19RESPONDENTS

33

Unit
Library
Heads

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Univ.
LibrarySection
Heads

2

Building
Administ
rators20

HAZARDS (1)Building damage/Collapse • geologic activity, e.g. earthquakes, volcanoes; building construction, etc.
Civil disturbance• including conflicts, terrorism, wars, riots

Chemical spills/leaks• gas leaks or improper storage conditions

Collapse of shelving• overloaded shelves

Fire
Flooding
Insect/vermin infestation
Mold outbreaks• arson, electrical fires or incendiary items• faulty plumbing, leaky roof
• Food particles, influx of infected items• Influx of infected items

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HAZARDS (2)Pilferage• defined as the act of stealing small amounts of articles

Power outage• Loss of electricity

Sewage leak

• faulty plumbing

Storm/typhoon damage
Theft• Meteorological occurrence• defined as the act of stealing property

Tornadoes• Meteorological occurrence

Vandalism• uninformed/disinterested users, inadequate security

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GRADING THE HAZARDS : PROBABILITY

1Rare (1 in 100 years)

2

Sporadic (1 in 50 years)

3Unusual (1 in 10 years)

4Likely (happens every couple of years)

5Almost certain (1 per year)

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GRADING THE HAZARDS: EFFECT

1Insignificant (loss of ≤1 working day / no damage tocollection / no injuries)

2Low (loss of ≤2 working days / up to 5% damage tocollection / no injuries)

3High (loss of ≤3 working days / up to 10% damage tocollection / minor injuries)

4Severe (loss of ≤4 working days / up to 25% damage tocollection / major injuries)

5Catastrophic (loss of 5+ working days / up to 50% or moredamage to collection / major injuries and fatality/ies)

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RANKING THE RISKS
High
Must be eliminated or significantly reduced
18.75 – 25.00
Significant Must be monitored; mitigation plan must be
12.50 – 18.74 in place to reduce risk
Moderate Must be monitored, but less rigorously and6.25 – 12.49 are less urgent in natureLow
1.00 – 6.24

Demand less attention, but not to be totally
ignored25

ADDITIONAL RESPONDENTS’ INPUTS
Probable Cause

Suggestions forpreventive action

Additionalhazards notincluded in the list

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PROBABILITY RATINGSPower Outage
Vandalism
TheftPilferage
VerminFlooding - Leaky Roof
Mold Outbreaks
Storm Damage
Fire - Faulty Wiring
Shelf Collapse
Flooding - Plumbing
Sewage Leaks
Fire - Incendiary Items
Building Collapse
Fire - Arson
Civil Disturbance
Tornado Damage
Chemical Spills

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3.65
3.45
3.3
3.25
3.15
3.15
3.11
3.05
2.55
2.5
2.5
2.44
2.1
1.85
1.8
1.68
1.627

EFFECT RATINGS
Fire - Faulty Wiring
Fire - Arson
Fire - Incendiary Items
Building CollapseTornado Damage
Storm Damage
Flooding - Plumbing
Flooding - Leaky Roof
VerminSewage Leaks
Mold Outbreaks
TheftVandalism
Chemical Spills
Civil Disturbance
Shelf Collapse
Pilferage
Power Outage

4.33
3.86
3.42
3.38
3.2
3.05
2.81
2.57
2.33
2.29
2.19
2.1
2.1
1.95
1.9
1.86
1.81
1.1

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RISK RATINGS
Fire - Faulty Wiring
Storm Damage
Fire - Incendiary Items
Flooding - Leaky Roof
Vandalism
Vermin
Theft
Fire - Arson
Building Collapse
Flooding - Plumbing
Mold Outbreaks
Pilferage
Sewage Leaks
Power Outage
Tornado Damage
Shelf CollapseCivil DisturbanceChemical Spills

3.42
3.12

8.34
8.1
7.67
7.57
7.25
7.14
7.1
7.03
6.9
5.97
5.73
5.5
5.38
4.74

9.49

13.21

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MoldOutbreaks
Pilferage
Sewage Leaks
Power Outage
TornadoDamage
Shelf Collapse
Civil
DisturbanceChemical Spills

Low

Storm Damage
Fire Incendiary
Items
Flooding Leaky Roof
Vandalism
Vermin
Theft
Fire - Arson
Building
Collapse
Flooding –Plumbing

Moderate

Fire - Faulty
Wiring

Siginificant

None

High

RISK GROUPS

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FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS

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FIRE AND WATER
Study reinforces
the fact that these2 elements (inwhatever guise)
are the biggest
threats to librarycollections

Libraries musteliminate or
reduce triggers tothese hazards.

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MOST PROBABLE HAZARDSPowerOutage• Periodicoccurrences• System failure• Inclement
weather

Vandalism

Theft• Onlydiscovered
after the fact
• Usereducation andawarenesshelps in its
reduction• CCTV andinspection ofbags reduceincidences

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MOST DESTRUCTIVE HAZARDSFire Due toFaultyWirings

Fire Due toArson

Fire Due toIncendiary
Items

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TOP 3 HAZARDSFire due toFaulty Wirings

StormDamage• Significant –13.21• Evaluate existingmeasures,updateperiodically• Upgradeelectricalwirings• Moderate –9.49• Evaluate existingmeasures,update asneeded• Exercise
vigilance intimes ofinclement
weather

Fire due toIncendiary
Items• Moderate - 8.34
• Evaluate existingmeasures,update asneeded• Enforce
preventive
measures35

NO HIGH THREATS

Respondents’
perception
towards
disasters

Disconnect
towards
certainthreats

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MODERATE THREATS

Needs lessmonitoring,
but librarians
must remain
vigilant
regardingtriggers.

Somelibraries
already haveexisting
preventive
measures inplace37

LOW THREATS

Libraries
can choose
to ignore or
not monitor
thesethreats

Considerplacing
mitigating
measures38

Product/Outcome
Risk Profile

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CONCLUSION
Risk ratings allow for logical ranking of threats
Hazards are identified
Preventive measures can be placed
Responses can be drawn up

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ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
 Northeast Documentation Conservation Center,

http://nedcc.org/home.php

 International Committee of the Blue Shield,

http://archive.ifla.org/VI/4/admin/protect.htm

 National Archives and Records Administration – Preservation,

http://www.archives.gov/preservation/internal/

 Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – Maps,

http://ochaonline.un.org/roap/MapCentre/HazardMaps/tabid/3725/langua
ge/en-US/Default.aspx

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