March 1, 2010
Venue: Hotel Okura

G. John IkenberryProfessor, Princeton University“Prospects for the Japan-US Alliance in the 21stCentury”

Introduction
I am greatly honored to be able to lecture on the Japan-US alliance at thisimportant juncture, the 50th anniversary of the Japan-US Security Treaty. The
continuation of the Japan-US alliance to this day is due not only to the fact thatthe alliance serves the national interests of both countries but also to the mutual
friendship and partnership between the two countries and ties between
individuals in both.
The Japan-US Security Treaty survived the Cold War to reach its 50th year, andwe should celebrate its success in bringing peace and prosperity to East Asia.
Today, however, the Japan-US alliance faces new challenges, requiring a close
examination of the alliance itself. East Asia continues to undergo majorchanges for a variety of reasons, among which is the emergence of a new global
security threat with China’s rise. Accordingly, the nature of security itself isvastly different from that at the time the Japan-US Security Treaty wasconcluded.
It is extremely regrettable that Japan and the US have not apparently been able
to convey to each other their respective visions on the form that the Japan-US
alliance should take in future, but this does not mean a crisis for the alliance. Agreat many people in both countries desire a strong alliance relationship, and theleaders of the two countries agree that the Japan-US alliance is a cornerstone of
their mutual security. We are quickly approaching a point at which we must
consider the most suitable approach to the alliance for the 21st century.
Below I will speak first on how successful the Japan-US alliance has proven thus
far, then I will analyze the threats confronting the Japan-US alliance today, andfinally I will offer some proposals.

Successes of the Japan-US allianceFirst, Japan’s remarkable economic and social reconstruction after World War II
and its development into a major power without parallel elsewhere can beattributed in great part to the blessings of the Japan-US alliance.
Second, the Japan-US alliance has been beneficial as the mainstay for stability
in East Asia. It has been said that regional integration has been successful inbringing stability to Europe, but that there is not necessarily a regional orderpresent in East Asia. There is an order in East Asia, however, and the criticalbilateral relations of the Japan-US alliance have created it.
Third, the Japan-US alliance has now even become a part of the politicalarchitecture. It is the Japan-US alliance that has enabled Japan and the US tomaintain their relations and to convey their views to each other. It is also theJapan-US alliance that makes it possible to bolster the US’ commitment in Asia.
Fourth, the Japan-US alliance has been successful for the very fact that itprovides a framework for economic growth and prosperity in East Asia andpromotes the transition to democratization in the countries of the region.
When the benefits of the Japan-US alliance are seen in this light, it is clear that
there is no option that could replace the Japan-US alliance. That said, however,the positive gains produced by the Japan-US alliance should not be taken forgranted, and in future we will need to look back over the history of the Japan-US
alliance to reaffirm its significance as we work to maintain it.

Issues facing the Japan-US alliance
Let me list now some of the threats currently facing the Japan-US alliance.
First, there is the rise of China. China is destined to become the world’s largest
economic superpower. No one knows how the global order will change whenthat happens but, if the Chinese economy comes to dominate the world, morecountries will become dependent on China. China may seek to expand its
military; the presence of the Chinese navy could be perceived as a threat by theUS, sparking a conflict. Cooperation between Japan and the US would help
build better relations with China as well as prevent China from harming their coreinterests. Should a power transition take place from a declining US to a rising
China, however, China could become more aggressive and pose a threat to theUS and its allies. To avoid such a scenario, we will need to return to the basic
premise of the Japan-US alliance as a public good and maintain and strengthen
the alliance. Contrarily, should the Japan-US alliance become a topic of debate,
opening a gap between Japan and the US, China might itself seek to fill that gap.
In addition, regional security architecture in which the countries of Northeast
Asia participate should be established. China’s economic rise is certainly athreat – at some point China’s GDP will likely outstrip the US’ – but China’s
economic strength is relatively weak vis-à-vis that of the OECD countries
combined. The OECD countries have formed liberal international systems
such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF, the WTO, and the G20 thathave been operating successfully.
Integrating China into these liberalinternational systems is well within the realm of possibility, and the more China isincorporated into the system, the more likely it is that China will cease to be an
enemy to the existing international order.
Secondly, there is the emergence of non-traditional security threats.
Confronting Japan and the US in the 21st century is not a single threat but amultitude of new threats, including global warming, terrorism, WMD proliferation,energy issues, communicable diseases, and transnational crime, in addition totraditional threats. Japan and the US must simultaneously address theseissues. The Obama administration regards these as threats in line with thisthinking and is seeking to tackle them. Even more will be required in future ofthe Japan-US alliance in addressing these composite threats.

Recommendations
Japan and the US need a new vision of the Japan-US alliance in order to build anew strategic partnership. I propose that the relevant officials from Japan andthe US agree at the next “2+2 Meeting” to establish a task force on theJapan-US alliance. This task force on the Japan-US alliance will comprisegovernment officials and influential figures from the private sector from both
Japan and the US, and will prepare a vision statement for the alliance’s next fiftyyears. Together with providing a forum for a wide spectrum of people from thetwo countries to discuss the Japan-US alliance from a diversity of perspectives,
the task force will address matters of concern to both Japan and the US.