TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS
Crash • Stats

DOT HS 812 966

A Brief Statistical Summary

June 2020

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for theFirst Quarter of 2020
Summary

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first quarterof 2020 shows that an estimated 7,780 people died in motorvehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decrease of about 1
percent as compared to 7,850 fatalities that were projected tohave occurred in the first quarter of 2019, as shown in Table
1. Preliminary data reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in
the first 3 months of 2020 decreased by about 40.1 billion miles,
or about a 5.4 percent decrease. Also shown in Table 1 are thefatality rates per 100 million VMT, by quarter. The fatality rate
for the first quarter of 2020 increased to 1.10 fatalities per 100

million VMT, up from the projected rate of 1.05 fatalities per100 million VMT in the first quarter of 2019. The actual counts
for 2019 and 2020 and the ensuing percentage change from2019 to 2020 will be further revised as the annual reporting
FARS files for 2019 are available later this year, as well as when
the final file for 2019 and the annual reporting file for 2020 areavailable next year. These estimates will be further refinedwhen the projections for the first 6 months of 2020 are releasedin late September.

Table 1: Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Quarter, Full Year, and the Percentage Change From the Corresponding Quarter orFull Year in the Previous Year
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Total(Jan–Mar)(Apr–Jun)(Jul–Sep)(Oct–Dec)(Full Year)
Fatalities and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Quarter From the Previous Year2008
8,459 [ -9.6%]
9,435 [-11.1%]
9,947 [ -10.0%]
9,582 [ -6.4%]
37,423 [ -9.3%]
2009
7,552 [ -10.7%]
8,975 [ -4.9%]
9,104 [ -8.5%]
8,252 [-13.9%]
33,883 [ -9.5%]
2010
6,755 [ -10.6%]
8,522 [ -5.0%]
9,226 [ +1.3%]
8,496 [ +3.0%]
32,999 [ -2.6%]
2011
6,726 [ -0.4%]
8,227 [ -3.5%]
8,984 [ -2.6%]
8,542 [ +0.5%]
32,479 [ -1.6%]
2012
7,521 [+11.8%]
8,612 [ +4.7%]
9,171 [ +2.1%]
8,478 [ -0.7%]
33,782 [ +4.0%]
2013
7,166 [ -4.7%]
8,207 [ -4.7%]
9,024 [ -1.6%]
8,496 [ +0.2%]
32,893 [ -2.6%]
2014
6,856 [ -4.3%]
8,179 [ -0.3%]
8,799 [ -2.5%]
8,910 [ +4.9%]
32,744 [ - 0.5%]
2015
7,370 [ +7.5%]
8,823 [ +7.9%]
9,805 [+11.4%]
9,486 [ +6.5%]
35,484 [ +8.4%]
2016
8,154 [+10.6%]
9,563 [ +8.4%]
10,078 [ +2.8%]
10,011 [ +5.5%]
37,806 [ +6.5%]
2017
8,301 [ +1.8%]
9,460 [ -1.1%]
10,081 [ +0.0%]
9,631 [ -3.8%]
37,473 [ -0.9%]
2018
8,189 [ -1.3%]
9,290 [ -1.8%]
9,856 [ -2.2%]
9,225 [ -4.2%]
36,560 [ -2.4%]
2019†
7,850 [ -4.1%]
9,200 [ -1.0%]
9,870 [ +0.1%]
9,200 [-0.3% ]36,120 [-1.2% ]2020†
7,780 [ -0.9%]————
Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT
2008
1.22
1.25
1.33
1.32
1.26
2009
1.09
1.16
1.17
1.12
1.15
2010
0.981.09
1.18
1.14
1.11
2011
0.98
1.09
1.18
1.17
1.10
2012
1.08
1.12
1.21
1.16
1.14
2013
1.04
1.07
1.17
1.15
1.10
2014
0.99
1.03
1.11
1.17
1.08
2015
1.03
1.08
1.20
1.21
1.15
2016
1.11
1.16
1.23
1.27
1.19
2017
1.12
1.13
1.21
1.20
1.17
2018
1.10
1.10
1.17
1.14
1.13
2019†
1.05
1.08
1.15
1.12
1.10
2020†
1.10
————
†
2019 and 2020 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.
Fatalities: 2008-2017 FARS Final File, 2018 FARS Annual Report File.
VMT: FHWA March 2020 Traffic Volume Trends for 2019 & 2020 VMTQuarter

Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

2To examine the effect of national COVID-19 pandemic quarantines and shelter-in-place started in mid-March 2020 on
traffic fatalities, VMT, and fatality rate per 100 million VMT,
the quarterly data is split into monthly ones for 2019-2020.

Table 2 shows an increase of fatality rate per 100 million VMTin March 2020 despite a 10-percent drop in traffic fatalities ascompared to March 2019.

Table 2: Fatalities, VMT, Fatality Rate by Month or Quarter in 2020, and the Percentage Change in Fatalities From theCorresponding Month or Quarter in 2019
Year

1st Quarter
JanFeb*

2nd Quarter

MarTotal

AprMayJun

3rd Quarter
Total

JulAugSep

4th Quarter
Total

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Fatalities and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Month and Quarter From 2019
2019†

2,650

2,400

2,800

7,850

2,840

3,200

3,160

9,200

3,310

3,310

3,250

9,870

3,150

3,050

3,000

9,200

2020†

2,650
0%

2,600
8.3%

2,530
-9.6%

7,780
-0.9%

———

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

2019†

1.07
248.3

1.06
226.7

1.03
271.6

1.05
746.6

1.01
281.6

1.12
286.2

1.12
281.4

1.08
849.2

1.12
295.7

1.15
286.8

1.19
271.9

1.15
854.4

1.11
284.1

1.17
260.5

1.10
274.1

1.12
818.7

2020†

1.04
253.6

1.12
232.0

1.14
221.0

1.10
706.6

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)/VMT (in Billion)**2019 and 2020 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.
*February 29, 2020, was a leap day.
**According to the estimates of VMT reported by FHWA, VMT increased by 2.1% in January, 2.3% in February and declined significantly (down 18.6%) in March, ascompared to the corresponding monthly VMTs in 2019.
VMT: FHWA March 2020 Traffic Volume Trends for 2019 & 2020 VMT†Figure 1 shows the historical trend of the percentage change
every quarter from the same quarter in the previous year,
going back to 1978. NHTSA has fatality data going back to1975, and the shading in the chart depicts the years during
which there were significant number of consecutive quarters
with increases/declines as compared to the corresponding

quarters of the previous years. The declines during the early
1980s and 1990s lasted 11 consecutive quarters, while the mostrecent decline occurred over 17 consecutive quarters ending
in the second quarter of 2010. Also, more recently, a significant
increase in fatalities occurred over 10 consecutive quarters
ending after the first quarter of 2017.

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%-10%-15%-20%

1981 Q2 to 1983 Q4(11 Quarters)

1990 Q4 to 1993 Q2(11 Quarters)

2006 Q2 to 2010 Q2(17 Quarters)

2014 Q4 to2017 Q1(10 Quarters)
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020% Changes

Figure 1: Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter as Compared to the Fatalities in theSame Quarter During the Previous Year

Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

3Discussion

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is continuing to gather and finalize data on crash fatalities for 2018and 2019 using information from police crash reports and other sources. It is too soon to speculate on the contributing factors or potential implications of any changes in deaths on ourroadways. The final file for 2018 as well as the annual report
file for 2019 will be available in late fall of 2020 which usually
results in the revision of fatality totals and the ensuing rates
and percentage changes. NHTSA has already reported thatfatalities increased in 2018 compared to 2017 in the following
categories: large-truck occupants, pedestrians, and pedalcyclists (2018 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, Report No.
DOT HS 812 826).
From 2012 to 2014, since recording a significant increase of
11.8 percent during the first quarter of 2012, the magnitudeof the increases steadily declined during each subsequent
quarter. Fatalities are reported to have increased by about 4.7
percent in the second quarter and by about 2.1 percent in thethird quarter of 2012. Subsequently, beginning with the fourth
quarter of 2012, fatalities have declined in 7 out of 8 quarters(2013 Q4 was a slight increase) until the 4.9-percent increase
reported for the fourth quarter of 2014. Fatalities increased
10 consecutive quarters beginning with the fourth quarterof 2014, until the 1.1-percent decline seen in the second quarter of 2017. The second quarter of 2019 represents the seventh
consecutive quarter with year-to-year decreases in fatalities
since the fourth quarter of 2017. The fourth quarter of 2019represents the eleventh consecutive quarter with year-to-year
decreases in fatality rate since the second quarter of 2017.

Data

The data used in this analysis comes from several sources:
NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), FastFARS (FF), and Monthly Fatality Counts (MFC); and fromFHWA’s VMT estimates. FARS is a census of fatal traffic crashes in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.
To be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motor vehicle
traveling on a trafficway and must result in the death of at least
one person (occupant of a vehicle or a nonoccupant) within 30
days of the crash. FARS final files from January 2003 to December 2017 and FARS Annual Report file in 2018 are used.
The FF program is designed as an Early Fatality Notification
System to capture fatality counts from States more rapidly andin real time. It aims to provide near-real-time notification offatality counts from all jurisdictions reporting to FARS. The
MFC data provides monthly fatality counts by State throughsources that are independent from the FastFARS or FARS
systems. MFCs from January 2003 up to April 2020 are used.
MFCs are reported mid-month for all prior months of theyear. In order to estimate the traffic fatality counts for 2020,
time series cross-section regression (TSCSR) was applied toanalyze the data with both cross-sectional values (by NHTSARegion) and time series (by month), to model the relationshipamong FARS, MFC, and FF, the details of which are available
in a Research Note (Statistical Methodology to Make Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, Report No. DOT HS 811123). The methodology used to generate the estimates for 2020is the same as the one used by NHTSA to project the decreasein the fatalities for the whole of 2019 (Early Estimates of MotorVehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2019, Report No. DOT HS 812 946).

Suggested APA format citation for this document:
National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2020, June). Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first quarter of 2020.
(Crash•Stats Brief Statistical Summary. Report No. DOT HS 812966). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

For questions regarding the information presented in thisdocument, please contact NCSArequests@dot.gov. Accessthis Crash•Stats and other general information on traffic
safety at https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/.
Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590
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