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POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MAHARASHTRA STATE
Rashmi1 and Narayani Gogoi2
1Assistant Professor (ad-hoc), Department of Geography,
Shyama Prasad Mukherji College for Women, Delhi University, Delhi, India
2Ph.D. Research Scholar, Centre for the Environment,
Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, India
Email: rashmithakur1990@gmail.com, narayani92gogoi@gmail.com

How to cite this paper:

RashmiandGogoi
Narayani (2022) Population
Dynamics and Economic
Growthin
Maharashtra
State, Journal of Global
Resources, Vol. 08 (02)DOI:
10.46587/JGR.2022.v08i02.010

Received: 02 April 2022
Reviewed: 25 April 2022
Revised: 11 May 2022
Final Accepted: 15 June 2022

Abstract: Demographic trends have a substantial impact on
any country’s economic performance. The present study
demonstrates and analyzes the probable relationshipbetween population indicators and economic growth ofMaharashtra. For population dynamics and economicgrowth assessment, we have selected these indicators such
as – per capita income, total population, urban population,
literacy rate, birth rate, death rate and sex ratio of 1961,
1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011. To understand theBivariate association between population indicators andeconomic growth and which variable will more affecteconomic growth, various statistical techniques has beenused like- Karl Pearson Product Movement Correlation
method and Stepwise Multivariate Regression has beenused. The result shows that there is a positive highcorrelation between per capita income and total population(R = 0.858) that means when population increase thattranslate into increase of participation in the workforce. And
there is also high positive correlation between per capita
income and urban population (R = 0.883). Considering all
the causal factors in the stepwise regression, it indicates thatthe highest correlation coefficient (R2 =0.779) whichcollectively explains the 77.90 per cent change throughurban population in economic growth.
Key words: Population Growth, Urban, Per Capita Income,Dynamics

Journal of Global Resources, July 2022, Volume 08 (02) Rashmi and Narayani Gogoi P a g e | 8 5

Introduction
Population is defined as a group of members of a single species who live together in the same
habitat and are likely to interbreed. Each population has an exclusive physical distribution in
space and time. It may contain individuals of different ages and its size is likely to change overtime, growing or shrinking according to the reproductive success of its members. The link
between economic development and population growth is a very old issue in social science,and this linkage has its original association with the name of Robert Malthus. His well-known
essay on population of 1798 contended that population growth unavoidably leads to poverty –fundamentally, he contended that population growth would always exceed the means ofsurvival. Population growth happens which leads to surplus supply of labour creating pressure
on wages, to the point where it reaches subsistence level. Beyond that point population growth
usually only comes down due to external stimuli like an event of war, starvation or disease, buteven in such case the people that are left behind would remain poor. Malthus, however
modified his views considerably in the later editions, though his name is still mainly associatedwith the thesis of his original Essay (Dennis Ahlburg and Robert Cassen, Population andDevelopment).
Demographic trends have a significant impact on a country’s economic performance.
For example, the declining fertility rates in the industrialized nations have led to labour
shortages and put a strain on pension systems. On the other hand, rapid population growth in
the developing nations has often been looked as a potential impediment to their socioeconomicdevelopment. This encouraged some countries such as China and Singapore to introduce
policies aimed at decreasing their population growth. Even the global demographic trend hasbecome a subject of discussion by researchers, policymakers, and the mass media. Economic
performance in any country is, to a large extent, affected by the country’s demographicsituation. There is continued disagreement of opinions regarding the influence of population
growth on economic development. The debate between negative impact and positive impactof population growth on the economy is thus still ongoing.
Population as a Positive Impact
The proponent of this ideology argued that in the form of human capital (equipped with varietyof skills) population is a great asset, and an appropriate investment in it may bring high returns.
Contextually, Swamy (1971), an economist observes, wherever there is possibility of increasein production through a demand-pull effect due to increase in size of labour force, the large
population is rather a requirement, advancing another logic the politician-cum-ideologue MaoTse-Tung describes population as blessing under the shadow of nuclear war apart from its
being a greatest wealth and a stimulant to innovation and development. Thus, to him, acountry, with small population will be in disadvantageous position. In view of Sahai (1993),
financial capital will have to chase human capital and not the other way round. That makes
skilled workforce a more reliable asset than financial capital. In fact, the skills, the training andknowledge commanded by workers are more relevant to economic future.
Population as a Negative Impact
In this context one can underline the views particularly of the rich and powerful nations, politicalleaders and their lackeys, policy-makers and above all, also a group of intellectuals who
unwillingly hold the large size of population and more so it’s fast growth as rather the soleculprit for resource depletion, ecological degradation and variety of other problems. Also, suchproblems have been brought into sharper focus by some international organizations, e.g.,
World Development Report (1990) which identifies the population growth as a factor
responsible for reinforcing poverty in a number of ways. It is further stated that fast population
growth, characteristic of poor nations, poor economies, and particularly the poor people therein
does not allow any incremental gains (World Development Report, 1990). Over population in
Journal of Global Resources, July 2022, Volume 08 (02) Rashmi and Narayani Gogoi P a g e | 8 6

most developing countries is one of the main consequences of, and simultaneously afundamental prerequisite for their economic underdevelopment.
According to Friedberg and Hunt (1995) population growth and urbanization depart
together, and economic development is closely correlated with urbanization. Rich countries
are urban countries. Population growth coupled with constrained resources leads to anincrease in population density and, together with rural-urban migration this causes higher
urban agglomeration. And to achieve a balance here is critical for achieving sustained growth
because large urban centres allow for innovation and increase economies of scale. As a resultof this companies have a larger workforce at their disposal which allows them to produce goodsin larger numbers and at a cheaper rate usually driven by economies of scale, serving a larger
number of low-income customers. Many countries have companies that benefit from increasing
population growth and density as it allows them access to a larger talent pool of available
workforce typically from lower and lower-middle income families. Ability to employ a large
workforce at relatively lower levels of average income makes their business model viablebecause they can serve a multi-million customer base which allows them to easily utilize thelarge talent pool. Thirlwal (1973) investigated the relationship between population growth andeconomic development with special reference to developing economies. The study found outthat the relationship between economic development and population growth is a complex one,particularly concerning the cause-and-effect dynamics between the two factors. Rapid
population growth usually leads to lower per capita income growth in least developed countries(LDCs) as the growth in working population is typically slower than the growth in overall
population, yet there are many ways in which population growth may be an incentive forprogress, and there are many logical reasons due to which families in developing countries
might choose to have many children. The study concluded that intricacy of the subject isintensified by the fact that, economic development is a multidimensional concept. The rate ofeconomic development depends on the diversion of resources from consumption to uses thatraise future output. A population with a higher percentage of dependents on producers
consumes more of a given output and devotes less to investments. Thus, high fertility, which
produces a high level of dependency, promotes consumption at the expense of investment.
In last few years, dependable time-series data sets that are comprehensive enough toallow conducting of time-series regression analyses have been assembled. The enhanced
accessibility of reliable data sets has provided impetus to the research on the relationshipbetween economic development and population growth. Tiffin and Dawson (1998), forexample, utilized time-series data to analyse the long-term relationship between economicdevelopment and population growth in India. They used the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)
unit root test and the Johansen (1988, 1991) co-integration test to analyse the co-integrating
relationships between the two variables. However, the study was unable to detect a long-term
equilibrium relationship between economic development and population growth in India. As
the researchers concluded, “…Population growth neither causes per capita income growth nor
is caused by it” (Dawson and Tiffin 1998).
Methodological Framework
This paper deals with the identification of population dynamics and economic growth
relationship through various indicators from 1961 to 2011 time period using appropriate
statistical techniques. In order to analyse the probable relationship between fertility andeconomic growth of Maharashtra, the data like –Per capita income (in Rs) is taken from
Economic Survey of Maharashtra of 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011. For population
dynamics assessment four main indicators has been selected like- total population, urbanpopulation, literacy rate, birth rate, death rate and sex ratio of 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001
and 2011 and the data has been taken Census of Maharashtra, 1961-2011. To understand theJournal of Global Resources, July 2022, Volume 08 (02) Rashmi and Narayani Gogoi P a g e | 8 7

bivariate association between population indicators and economic growth Karl Pearson’s
Product Moment Correlation Technique has been used.
Research Area
Maharashtra is a state in the western region of India and is India's second-most populous state
and third-largest state by area. It is spread over 307,710 km2 area and is bordered by theArabian Sea on the west and the Indian states of Telangana, Karnataka, Gujarat, Goa,
Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and the Union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The mainrivers running across the state are Krishna, and Godavari. Maharashtra is one of the largest,wealthiest and developed states in India. Maharashtra's Gross State Domestic Product for2014 is estimated at $295 Billion in current prices which rose to $398 Billion in 2015. Basedon 2021 data, Maharashtra’s per capita income is $3000, far ahead of national average of$1,947. Maharashtra is third-most urbanised state with urban population of 45 per cent ofwhole population.
Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra and also the financial capital of the country houses
the headquarters of almost all financial institutions, major banks, insurance companies andmutual funds. India's largest stock exchange Bombay Stock Exchange, oldest in Asia, is alsolocated in the city. After the success in the information technology in the neighbouring states,
Maharashtra has set up software parks in Pune, Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Nagpur and Nasik,
Aurangabad and Latur. Maharashtra with annual exports of 18 000 crores is the second
largest exporter of software and accounts in excess of 30 per cent of the country's software
exports, with over 1,200 software units based in the state. Maharashtra rank first in coal-based
thermal electricity as well as nuclear electricity generation with national market shares of over
13 per cent and 17 per cent respectively.
Figure 01: Location Map of the Study Area

Results and Discussion
The following table unveils the probable relationship of per capita income (dependent variable)with causal factors (independent variables) of dynamics, regression was carried out. In thisstudy the selected independent variables are total population, urban population, literacy rate,birth rate, death rate and sex ratio. From the table we can found that there is a positive highcorrelation between per capita income and total population (R = 0.858) that means whenpopulation increase that translate into increase of participation in the workforce. Again, there
is high positive correlation between per capita income and urban population (R = 0.883) thatmeans that when number of urban populations increases, per capita income also increases.
There is a positive high correlation between per capita income and birth rate (R = 0.874) andper capita income and death rate (R= 0.730).

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To estimate the collective effects of causal factors, stepwise multivariate regression
analysis was also carried out (Table 1). In the stepwise multivariate regression, it is assumed
that the relationships between variables are linear. Considering all the causal factors in thestepwise regression, it indicates that the highest correlation coefficient (R2 =0.779) whichcollectively explains the 77.90 per cent change through urban population in economic growth.
The birth rate explains the second highest proportion (76.30 per cent) as it remodels theeconomic growth. The lowest correlation coefficient is of sex ratio (R2=0.212) which will bring
only 21.20 per cent change in economic growth.
Table 01: Model Summary of Stepwise Regression
Model
1
23
456R
.858a.883b.784c.874d.460e.730f

R Square.736
.779
.615
.763
.212
.533

a. Predictors: (Constant), Tot_Pop
d. Predictors: (Constant), Br_Rt

Adjusted R Square
.670
.724
.518
.704.015.416

Std. Error of the Estimate
18906.584
17281.462
22835.678
17903.455
32658.939
25144.486

b. Predictors: (Constant), Urb_Pope. Predictors: (Constant), S_R

c. Predictors: (Constant), Lit_Rt
f. Predictors: (Constant), D_Rt

Conclusion
The link between population growth and economic development is among the older issues insocial science, particularly because of its association with the name of Robert Malthus.
Demographic trends have a substantial impact on any country’s economic performance. For
example, the declining fertility rates in the industrialized nations have led to labour shortages
and put a strain on pension systems. On the other hand, the rapidly expanding population in
the developing nations has been viewed as a potential impediment to their socioeconomicdevelopment. The debate between positive impact and negative impact of population growthon the economy is thus still ongoing. The present study demonstrates and analyses theprobable relationship between population indicators and economic growth of Maharashtra. The
result shows that there is a positive high correlation between per capita income and total
population (R = 0.858) that means when population increase that translate into increase ofparticipation in the workforce. And there is also high positive correlation between per capita
income and urban population (R = 0.883). Considering all the causal factors in the stepwise
regression, it indicates that the highest correlation coefficient (R2 =0.779) which collectively
explains the 77.90 per cent change through urban population in economic growth.
References
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Employment and Growth (in Symposia: Immigration). The Journal of Economic
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2. Malthus, T.R. (1798). An Essay on the Principles of Population, (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
3. Thirlwal, A. P. (1993). Growth and Development with Special Reference to Developing
Economies”, University of Kent at Canterbury, 5th Edition. Pp. 143-155.
4. Dawson, D. J. and R. Tiffin. (1998). Is there a long-run relationship between population
growth and living standard? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies 34(5):149.
5. Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of co-integration vector. Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 12(2/3):231–254.
6. Estimation and hypothesis testing of co-integrated vectors in Gaussian VAR Models(1991). Econometrica 59(6):1551–1580
7. Tournemaine, F. (2007). Can population promote income per capita growth? A balanced
perspective. Economics Bulletin 15(8):1–7.
8. Klasen, S. and D. Lawson. (2007). The impact of population growth on economic growthand poverty reduction in Uganda. Departmental Working Paper No. 133. Department ofEconomics, University of Goettingen.
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