Pascal Boniface
Director, Institute of International and Strategic Relations, France“Power Shifts from the Perspective of Europe”

The international order has become complex in recent years, no longer like the simplified
world of the 19th century in which a number of major powers decided on the course of globaldevelopments. The fact that the G8 has faded in importance and attention focused insteadon the G20 is an indication that the move toward multipolarization has gained momentum.
Although the world has thus been altered considerably, this change in no way represents abreak with history.

This has been one continuous change arising from cumulative

day-to-day changes. It is important to distinguish between single key developments andfull-blown trends when trying to trace the world’s course.

For example, the Cold War worldof East-West conflict came to an end with the collapse of the Berlin Wall, but the collapse of
the wall does not tell us everything about the systemic changes that had already occurred.
While it was indeed a symbolic event, there were significant systemic changes preceding it.

The current world order is seeing a shift from a bipolar world to a multipolar one, and the US,
while it can no longer be called a unipolar power, still wields tremendous influence.

The USaccounts for nearly half of worldwide military expenditures, and the balance thatcharacterized the Cold War no longer exists.
GDP, far ahead of second place.

The US also remains at the top in terms of

The US excels in technological capability, and exercises

remarkable cultural influence as well. It can hardly be said that China, Brazil, Russia, India
or other emerging countries are the US’ equals.

Despite the disappearance of the SovietUnion, neither Japan nor the EU has become a strategic actor.

All countries keep a close

eye on US elections and stress their bilateral relations with the US.

Has any single country

ever possessed such exceptional influence?

There is thus no power equivalent to the US, which maintains great sway as an importantworld actor.

Nevertheless, the US cannot decide global rules on its own and impose theseon other countries.

The US has become more deeply involved in issues regarding therenminbi and the Middle East, but none of these issues has been resolved.

Were ours truly

a US-centric unipolar world, then all of the US’ demands would likely have been accepted.
Still, the world’s problems cannot be resolved without the US, and international agreements
and treaties absent the US will not function effectively. That said, however, the US cannot actalone.

The media, NGOs and a variety of other actors have gained in influence, and it is

now impossible for any one state to set the world’s course.
unipolar one.

In that sense, our world is not aWestern society long dominated the world in the past, but its power has waned since WorldWar II. Europe should acknowledge and deal with this.
on the decline.

However, Europe is by no means

Countries outside Europe will break out of poverty, grow and acquire power,

but there is no need to fear this. If improved living standards come about in other countries,
this will because these countries have become able to contribute to the international order.
Europe was previously fragmented but now it is merging, becoming more multipolarizedthrough soft power and transitioning into a peaceful society without aggressive war.

Theworld currently faces an array of problems such as nuclear weapons and terrorism thatcannot be properly addressed by any single country, and the only way to resolve these is forthe world to come together via the United Nations and other such organizations.

The key toresolving the world’s problems will not be hard power exercised by powerful countries but
multipolarized soft power.