April 2, 2010
Venue: Tokai University Club (35F, Kasumigaseki Bldg.)

Richard Danzig
Former US Secretary of the Navy

“Forecasting Japan-US Relations over the Next 10Years”

I have come here in my personal capacity, and I would like to make it clear fromthe start that the opinions expressed in this talk are entirely my own.
It is my understanding that the Japan Institute of International Affairs wasfounded in 1959 and that it has thus far sponsored lectures by a host ofimpressive guests. The continued efforts of an organization such as this overso many years make sound, influential, impressive and sustained contributions
to society beyond the ability of any single individual. Something similar could
be said of Japan-US relations and our alliance.
The continued existence of a given system or organization implies that it has
maintained a balance between change and continuity. Japan’s companies andpolitical structures demonstrate that a delicate balance between embracingchange and carrying on tradition is given particular emphasis in Japan.
In applying this idea of a balance between change and continuity to Japan-US
relations, there is a tendency to view the Japan-US alliance from the perspectiveof security. The Japan-US alliance serves as a “shield,” allowing Japan toenjoy economic prosperity, peace and other benefits from the alliance. The US,too, gains from the Japan-US alliance in being able to contain security risks inEast Asia. While there is no doubt that viewing the Japan-US alliance thusfrom the security perspective is the core of the problem, its roots lie even deeper.
Japan and the US completely share something fertile and fundamental: acommitment to democracy and the rule of law. Having such fundamental
values in common does indeed constitute a foundation for joint action by Japanand the US, and it has made it possible to build a solid relationship of trust that
could even be termed exceptional. Some observers stress change, such as
those emphasizing the rise of China. There are two models for alliances: one
resembles a date, in which a temporary infatuation draws the two parties closer
together and prompts them to begin dating, while the other is more like amarriage in that the parties share deeper values. The Japan-US alliancefollows the latter model and features a close and sustained relationship between
parties proclaiming the same fundamental values. There are no other alliances
so rooted in shared values and built on such firm trust. My hope in the past andthe future of the Japan-US alliance rests on this fact.
As made clear by the recent changes of government in both Japan and the US,
democracy encourages change and reform. When new leadership comes
about through change, the existing balance and harmony must of necessity
collapse. New issues arise, and efforts are made to adapt to the changes.
There is already an established pattern of bilateral relations between Japan andthe US. Changes in the two countries’ governments give rise to issues in theJapan-US relationship, and a new and different relationship pattern must becreated.
It is essential that Japan-US relations remain deep and fundamental in nature,that these relations be developed still further, and that both countries exercise
patience to this end. Japan and the US must consider directions in which they
can proceed together, looking to the future while giving due consideration to thefundamental aspects of the Japan-US relationship.
Let me stress thesignificance of pursuing future goals while leveraging past achievements. We
are the heirs to the accomplishments of our ancestors, and we have a sacredobligation to develop them further. At the same time, this obligation offers us
many opportunities.