Explaining Ocean Warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences
Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter
September 2016

IUCN GLOBAL MARINE AND POLAR PROGRAMME

Explaining Ocean Warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences
Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter
September 2016

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Citation:

Laffoley, D. & Baxter, J. M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences.
Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. 456 pp.
Individual chapters within this report should be referenced as:
Author(s). 2016. Title of chapter. In: Laffoley, D., & Baxter, J.M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences. Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. pp. xxx.

ISBN:

978-2-8317-1806-4

DOI:

http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2016.08.en

Cover photos:

Clockwise from top: King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) on Middle Beach (Brothers Point in distance),
Macquarie Island, Southern Ocean. (© Robbie Kilpatrick/Australian Antarctic Division, November 2015, Image
RS31770,Image Antarctica); a colony of black coral with small crabs moving amongst the branches (image
courtesy of Department of BIS, UK); seagrass (Zostera marina) © SNH/Ben James; Hurricane Catarina on
March 26th, 2004, off SE Brazil. Image courtesy of NASA.

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4.5 Impacts and effects of ocean warmingon the contributions of fisheries andaquaculture to food security
Johann Bell1,2, William Cheung3, Sena De Silva4, Maria Gasalla5,6, Stewart Frusher7,8, Alistair Hobday8,9,Vicky Lam3, Patrick Lehodey10, Gretta Pecl7,8, Melita Samoilys11 and Inna Senina10
Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500,
Arlington, VA 22202, USA
3
Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4
4
School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Victoria 3280, Australia
5Institute of Advanced Studies (IEA), University of São Paulo, Brazil
6
Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory, Oceanographic Institute, University of São Paulo, Brazil
7
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart TAS 7001, Australia
8
Centre for Marine Socioecology, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
9
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
10
Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal, Ramonville Cedex 31526, France
11
CORDIO East Africa, P. O. BOX 10135, Mombasa 80101, Kenya
12

Summary
•

•

•

•

•
•

•

Fisheries and aquaculture play a vital but often poorly acknowledged role in global food security. Together,
fisheries and aquaculture provide 4.3 billion people with ~15% of their average per capita intake of animal
protein. By 2050, an additional 75 million tonnes of fish will be needed to help feed more than 9 billion people.
The recent revolution in aquaculture, and continued improvements to management of capture fisheries, havepotential to provide the additional fish required. However, warming of the world’s ocean could disrupt theseimportant initiatives.
Ocean warming will result in ‘winners’ and ‘losers. Changes in distributions of fish stocks as species seek theiroptimal temperatures, and as the habitats on which they depend are altered by higher water temperatures, will
result in decreases in fisheries production in some countries and increases in others. Similarly, the prime locations formariculture are expected to be altered by ocean warming, resulting in changes in yield patterns among countries.
The effects of ocean warming on the contributions of marine fisheries and mariculture to food security should
not be considered in isolation from those of other drivers. Rapid population growth, fish exports and poor
fisheries management also affect availability of fish in many developing countries. These drivers often createa gap between how much fish is needed for good nutrition and local fish harvests. The main effects of ocean
warming are to alter (increase or decrease) the gap.
Changes to the gap due to ocean warming are expected to be greatest in tropical and subtropical countries.
Adaptations are needed to minimize, and to fill, the gap.
Adaptations to minimize the gap include reducing the impact of local stressors on fish habitats through improved
integrated coastal management and marine spatial planning; keeping production of fisheries within sustainablebounds using the most appropriate management measures for the national context and a climate-informed
ecosystem approach; and improving supply chains.
The most important adaptation for filling the gap will be the expansion of environmentally sustainable mariculture(and freshwater aquaculture). However, for some developing countries, the most practical adaptations for filling
the gap will be re-allocating some of the catch of large and small pelagic fish taken by industrial fleets to smallscale fishers, and/or arranging for industrial fleets to land more of their catch in local ports.

Ocean Warming409

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Ocean warming effectConsequences

Total production of fish from capture fisheries haslevelled off at about 90 million tonnes per year

Aquaculture now supplies the remainder of the ~130
million tonnes of fish used directly for foodAn additional 75 million tonnes of fish will be needed tohelp feed more than nine billion people by 2050

Continued improvements to fisheries management will
be needed but expanded aquaculture production will
be required to meet most of the demand

Ocean warming is expected to increase progressively
due to continued greenhouse gas emissions

The plans to optimize production from marine fisheries
and to expand mariculture are likely to be affected byocean warming

Distributions of fish stocks will change as fish species
seek their optimal ocean temperatures

Marine fisheries production will increase in somecountries and decrease in others

Prime locations for mariculture will change as theocean warms

Countries will become more or less suitable for mariculture
and patterns of yields among countries will change

Rapid population growth, fish exports and poor
fisheries management are reducing availability of fish
per capita in many developing countries

A gap is emerging between how much fish is needed
for good nutrition and how much fish is available locally

Ocean warming will widen this gap in some countries
and reduce it in others

Practical adaptations are needed to minimize, and to
fill, the gap

4.5.1 Introduction

source of fish, particularly in developing countries (Hallet al., 2013), most of the expected future demand forfish will have to come from aquaculture (Merino et al.,2012; FAO, 2014a). Rice and Garcia (2011) provide
a potent example of estimated future demand – theycalculate that an additional 75 million tonnes of fish will
be required to provide more than 9 billion people with
20% of their dietary protein requirements by 2050.

Fisheries and aquaculture play a vital but often poorly
acknowledged role in global food and nutrition security(Béné et al., 2015, 2016). The ~130 million tonnes offish1 currently produced from marine and freshwater
capture fisheries and aquaculture used directly forhuman consumption (Figure 4.5.1) provide 4.3 billion
people with about 15% of their average per capita
intake of animal protein (HLPE, 2014). Furthermore,
about 10% of the world’s population – predominantly
from developing and emergent countries – rely heavily
on fisheries and aquaculture for the income needed tobuy food (Allison et al., 2013; HLPE, 2014).
In recent decades, total production from capture
fisheries has levelled off at about 90 million tonnes per
year, with about 75% used directly for food (Figure
4.5.1), because most marine resources are now fully
exploited, and in some cases over-exploited (FAO,
2014a). Rapid development of aquaculture has met
the remainder of the demand (FAO, 2014a). In fact, therate at which aquaculture has increased has enabled
global fish supply to outpace population growth, andthe supply of other sources of animal protein (De Silva,
2012a; FAO, 2014a; Youn et al., 2014). Although
capture fisheries will always need to be an important
1 Fish is used here in the broad sense and includes finfish, shellfish(invertebrates), sharks and rays

410

There is optimism that continued improvements
in aquaculture related to feed formulation, feeding
technologies, farm management and selective breeding
can supply the future needs for fish (FAO, 2014a). A
particularly beneficial development is the reduced
dependence on fish meal for feeds, which decouples
marine fisheries and aquaculture production, paving
the way for more wild fish to be used directly for humanconsumption. There is also the prospect that totalsustainable production from capture fisheries could
increase by up to ~20% with improved management(OECD-FAO, 2013; Costello et al., 2016). Similarly,
there is a view that fish production from inland capture
fisheries is under-estimated (Beard et al., 2011; Bartley
et al., 2015) and that there is scope for freshwater fish
resources to make significant additions to supplies offood fish (Youn et al., 2014), particularly among ruralcommunities in developing countries. On the other
hand, failure to address the many factors that affectthe production of capture fisheries, including habitat

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

a)

b)

c)

Figure 4.5.1 a) World capture fisheries and aquaculture production, 1950–2012; b) world fish utilization and supply,
1950–2012; and c) global inland aquaculture and mariculture production, 1980–2012 (source: FAO, 2014a).

degradation, over-capacity and a range of socioeconomic drivers (Gillett and Cartwright, 2010; Hall,2011), could reduce present-day harvests from the wild
and widen the gap to be filled by aquaculture.

Ocean Warming

Climate change poses
an additional risk to theinitiatives underway tosupply more than 200
million tonnes of fish forhuman consumption by
2050. The best laid plansfor better managementof capture fisheries andtechnical
improvements
in aquaculture could be
affected by changes to theenvironment beyond thecontrol of managers. One of
the main consequences ofincreased greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions – warmingof the world’s ocean – has
the potential to disrupt
theseplans.
Because87% of capture fisheries
production (FAO, 2014a),and 47% of aquaculture
production (FAO, 2016),
comes
from
marineandcoastal(hereafter
marine) waters, any suchdisruptions are expected tohave a significant effect on
global seafood production.
The potential effects may
be even more significant
because there are limits
to the expansion of inlandaquaculture (which currently
accounts for 90% of finfish
aquaculture production) due
to foreshadowed restrictions
on availability of fresh water(FAO, 2014a). This meansthat a greater percentageof the additional 75 million
tonnes of fish needed by
2050 will have to comefrom marine aquaculture(hereafter ‘mariculture’).

Here, we review assessments of the projected effects ofocean warming on the contribution of marine fisheries
and mariculture to food security and livelihoods. We
focus mainly on developing country regions because they411

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

have the greatest dependency on fish for nutrition (Bell etal., 2009; Davies et al., 2009 ; Kawarazuka and Béné,
2011; Wanyonyi et al., 2011; Lam et al., 2012; BarnesMauthe et al., 2013; FAO, 2014a; Portner et al., 2014).
This is not to say that the effects of ocean warming are
insignificant for fisheries in developed countries. They are
significant, as demonstrated by several studies from theNorth Atlantic and North Pacific (e.g. Cheung et al., 2012;
Hollowed et al., 2013; Colburn et al., 2016; Hare et al.,2016), and by our summary of global assessments of theeffects of ocean warming on marine fisheries (para 4.5.5).
Alterations in fish catch from developed countries, such
as Japan and those in the EU and North America, due toocean warming can also be expected to have impacts
on food security in the developing country regions byinfluencing exports to developed countries.

areas of preferred temperature (Last et al., 2011; Pinsky
et al., 2013; Jung et al., 2014). Such range shifts are due
largely to the direct effects of changes in temperature on
the physiology and behaviour of species (Pörtner, 2001;
Pörtner and Farrell, 2008; Pratchett et al., 2010; Section
3.11) (Figure 4.5.2). In particular, changes in temperature
can have significant effects on the timing of reproduction
and development duration (phenology) and, therefore,
dispersal of eggs or larvae. Temperature changes also
affect individuals and populations through altered rates
of metabolism, consumption and assimilation (Buckley,2013). In addition, changes in ocean temperature affectthe size and hence productivity of species (Cheung etal., 2013a), which may require changes in management(Audzijonyte et al., 2013, 2014, 2016).

We begin with a brief summary of the expected effects ofocean warming on marine fish species and ecosystems,
report the projected effects of such changes on the
production of marine fisheries and mariculture, andconclude with the implications and practical adaptations
to minimize the risks and capitalize on the opportunities.
Our analysis is limited to ocean warming and does notconsider the effects of ocean acidification on production
from marine fisheries and mariculture; such effects are
discussed by Hilmi et al. (2015) and have been shown tovary with taxa and region. The effects of global warming on
inland aquaculture in general have been assessed by De
Silva and Soto (2009) and De Silva (2012b); specific cases
have also been considered by Phan et al. (2009), Nguyen
et al. (2014, 2015) and Li et al. (2016), for example.
We found winners and losers. Projected changes
in the distribution and abundance of species,
primary productivity supporting marine fisheries, andenvironmental conditions suitable for mariculture andproliferation of parasites, pests and diseases, indicatethat fish production is likely to increase in somecountries/regions and decrease in others (Harvell et al.,
1999; Allison et al., 2009; Barange et al., 2014; FAO,
2014a; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014).

4.5.2 Effects of ocean warming on marine
species and ecosystems
Although some fish species can respond to the warmingof the ocean described in Sections 3.11 and 3.12 byadjusting in situ (Maggini et al., 2011), the most widely
documented impacts of climate change on species
supporting marine fisheries are shifts in distributions to412

Figure 4.5.2 (A) Thermal performance curves typically have acharacteristic, unimodal shape exemplified by performance as a functionof body temperature. Often the reaction norm’s peak is shifted to the rightof centre, such that performance increases relatively slowly up to Topt, but
decreases rapidly above Topt. Although performance curves are generally
modelled as functions, performance is typically only measured at a small
number (4–8) of discrete temperatures in empirical studies. (B) A given
increase in temperature (ΔT) results in an increase in nominal performance(ΔP) for a temperate fish and shellfish species, but the same temperature
increase results in a decrease in nominal performance for a tropical species
capable of living or surviving within a narrow temperature range (source:
Dowd et al., 2015).

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

In general, marine species are ‘tracking’ ocean warming
by moving towards the poles, resulting in range
extensions at poleward boundaries of their distributions(analogous to species invasions) and range contractions
at equatorward boundaries (analogous to local species
extinctions) (Chen et al., 2011; Poloczanska et al.,2013; Bates et al., 2014; Section 3.11). These changes
in distribution are evident in waters surrounding allcontinents, and for a wide range of marine organisms,
e.g. phytoplankton (Thompson et al., 2009, 2015;
Section 3.2), seaweeds (Wernberg et al., 2011; Nicastro
et al., 2013; Section 3.3), invertebrates (Pitt et al., 2010;
Chen et al., 2011) and fish (Cheung 2008, 2010; Last etal., 2011; Sunday et al., 2015; Sections 3.11 and 3.12).
Ocean warming can also have indirect effects on
fisheries production by altering primary productivity (LeBorgne et al., 2011; Blanchard et al., 2012; Barange etal., 2014) and the benthic habitats that support fisheries(Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2011; Waycott et al., 2011).
Ocean warming can increase stratification of the watercolumn (Ganachaud et al., 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg
et al., 2014), reducing upwelling and the availability ofnutrients required for the growth of phytoplankton at thebase of the food webs supporting fisheries (Le Borgne etal., 2011). The contributions of some benthic habitats tofisheries production are particularly vulnerable to ocean
warming. In particular, the corals that provide habitat
for fish and invertebrates in many tropical developing
countries are being adversely affected by bleaching due
to elevated sea surface temperature (SST) (Pratchett etal., 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2011, 2014; Ainsworth
et al., 2016; Section 3.8).
Changes in distribution, phenology and abundance ofmarine species related to the direct and indirect effectsof ocean warming can have significant impacts on the
structure and function of ecosystems (Tylinakias etal., 2008, Johnson et al., 2011; Marzloff et al., 2016).
Where shifts in the distributions or abundances of
species occur at different times and rates (Sunday et al.,2012, 2015; Pecl et al., 2014), links between species
can be broken allowing, for example, some species
to escape from predators and exploit a wider range ofenvironments (Jaeschke et al., 2012; Section 3.11).

4.5.3 Effects on fish supply
Changes in the production of marine fisheries andmariculture due to the direct and indirect effects ofocean warming need to be considered together withother factors affecting the supply of fish (Gillett andOcean Warming

Cartwright, 2010; Bell et al., 2011a; Hall et al., 2011). In
many developing countries, rapid population growth isdriving a gap between sustainable fish harvests and theamount of fish needed to contribute to good nutrition(see para. 4.5.3.1). The effects of ocean warming havethe potential to widen or reduce this gap. In otherdeveloping countries, trade policies that result in the
majority of fish being exported limit local supplies offish and overshadow the expected effects of ocean
warming on availability of fish per capita (Delgado etal., 2003; Béné and Heck, 2005; Hobday et al., 2015).
Fisheries management approaches can also have a
profound effect on fish supply and the effects of poor
management are likely to exceed the effects of ocean
warming for many years to come.
Below, we summarize the importance of fish to foodsecurity and livelihoods, and the expected effects ofprojected ocean warming on marine fisheries, in fivedeveloping country regions. Several of these projections
rely on model forecasts, which remain susceptible
to some uncertainty and bias (Cheung et al., 2016b).
Therefore, a measure of caution is needed in applying
percentage projected changes to fish catch derived
from these models. We also summarize the expected
effects of ocean warming on mariculture worldwide andthe key findings from several global assessments of theeffects on marine fisheries.

4.5.3.1 Pacific Islands
Traditionally, Pacific Island coastal communities have
had some of the highest rates of fish consumption in theworld (3-4 times the global average) and relied on fish
to provide 50-90% of their dietary animal protein (Bell etal., 2009). Much of this fish has come from subsistence
coastal fisheries based on coral reefs (Dalzell et al.,
1996; Pratchett et al., 2011). Rapid population growthin several Pacific Island countries is expected to alter thissituation. By 2035, population growth alone will reduce
the availability of fish per capita below the 35 kg of fish
per person per year recommended for good nutritionof Pacific Island people (SPC, 2008; Bell et al., 2009).
The direct effects of increased SST on fish metabolism
projected to occur under a high GHG emissions
scenario, and the indirect effects of ocean warmingon the quality of coral reef fish habitats as a result of
increased coral bleaching and ocean acidification,
are expected to reduce production by ~20% by 2050
and exacerbate this situation (Bell et al., 2011b, 2013;
Pratchett et al., 2011).

413

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Table 4.5.1 Estimates of coastal fisheries production based on coral reef area for selected Pacific Island countries, the amount of fish needed for food in2020 and 2035, and expected surplus (+) or deficit (-) in fish supply, relative to the recommended 35 kg per person per year or traditionally higher levels offish consumption, for each country for each period. The quantities of tuna needed to fill the gap in fish supply and the percentage of average national tuna
catch required to provide this tuna in 2020 and 2035 is also shown (after Bell et al., 2015a).

Country

Coastal fish
production(tonnes.y-1)aFish needed forfood(tonnes)b

Surplus (+)/
Tuna needed for
deficit (-) coastal
food (tonnes)
fish (tonnes)c

2020

2020

2035

Average Percentage
tunaof average
catchtuna catch(tonnes)d requirede

2035

2020

2035

2020 2035

PNGf

98,760g 117,000 169,100 -18,200 -73,800

18,20063,200h597,657

3.0

10.6

Solomon Isi

27,610j

25,40035,6002,210-7,9900

7,990

144,4540

5.5

Kiribatik,l12,96010,90013,400

2,060

-890

4,900

6,370

330,177

1.5

1.9

Nauruk

130m

700

800

-570

-670

570

670

99,0330.6

0.7

a Based on median estimates of sustainable fish harvests of 3 tonnes per km (Newton et al., 2007)b Based on estimates in supplementary material for Bell et al. (2015a)
c Calculations for 2035 include a 2-5% reduction in the production of coastal fisheries due to the effects of climate change (Pratchett et al., 2011)d Based on the 5-year average total tuna catch (all gear types) for the period 2009-2013, rounded to the nearest tonne.
e Assumes that all tuna will come from industrial fishing within the EEZ and does not allow for catches from nearshore FADs, the contribution of bycatch, or the effects of climatechange on tuna catch (Bell et al., 2013)
f Fish needed for food based on providing different quantities per capita for the urban, coastal/riverine and inland populations of PNG (see Bell et al., 2015a)
g Includes 17,500 tonnes of freshwater fish.
h Allows for freshwater pond aquaculture to supply 1 kg of fish per person per year by 2035 (Bell et al., 2011b), reducing the overall deficit in fish of 73,800 tonnes to 63,200
tonnesi Fish needed for food based on recommended fish consumption of 35 kg per person per year (see Bell et al., 2015a)
j Includes 2000 tonnes of freshwater fishk Fish needed for food based on recent, traditional levels of fish consumption for rural and/or urban populations (Bell et al., 2009)l National average incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning, renders several species of coral reef fish unfit for human consumption at some locationsm Based on reconstructions of catches of coastal fish by the ‘Sea around us’ project, University of British Columbia
2

The rich tuna resources of the region provide a potential
solution. Allocation of a relatively small percentage of thetuna catch from the exclusive economic zones of PacificIsland countries would provide the additional fish required(Bell et al., 2015a) (Table 4.5.1). However, the effects ofocean warming under a high GHG emissions scenario
will make this solution easier to apply in some countries
than in others. Preliminary modelling of the effects of themost abundant tuna species in the region, skipjack tuna
Katsuwonas pelamis (Figure 4.5.3), indicates that there
is likely to be an eastward shift in the relative abundanceof this important fish species (Bell et al., 2013; Lehodey
et al., 2013) (Figure 4.5.4). Over time, it should be easierfor coastal communities in Kiribati, Cook Islands andFrench Polynesia in the central and eastern Western andCentral Pacific Ocean (WCPO) to catch tuna than it is forcoastal communities in the western WCPO, e.g. in Papua
New Guinea (PNG) and Federated States of Micronesia.
However, there will still be large (albeit reduced) quantitiesof tuna available in the western WCPO in the future forboth export and domestic food security (Figure 4.5.4).

414

Figure 4.5.3 Women selling skipjack tuna caught by small-scale fishers
around Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. © Johann Bell.

Ocean Warming

1.2

c

20 oN

2035

0o
-1%

140 o E+9%180o

140 o W

Tokelau

Tuvalu

Nauru

1.2

15
Biomass change (%)

Latitude

40 oN

20 oS

0.7

Country/Territory

Longitude

2035

4.5

French Polynesia

0

Cook Is.

100 o W

50

Kiribati

140 o W

100

Cook Is.

180o

150

Kiribati

140 o E

200

Marshall Is.

20o S

Solomon Is.

0o

250

PNG

20o N

300

FSM

Latitude

2005

b

40o N

Palau

a

Average catch (tonnes x1000)

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

100 o W

Longitude

15

20o N

2050

0o
+1%

20o S
140 o E

+12%

180o

140 o W

Biomass change (%)

2050

Latitude

40o N

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

100 o W

Longitude

2100

0o

0.1
Tonnes per km2

0.15

0.2

FrenchPolynesia

0.05

Tokelau

0

TuvaluLongitude

Nauru

-40

100 o W

Marshall Is.

140 o W

Solomon Is.

180o

-20

PNG

140 o E

+8%

0

FSM

-17%

20 oS

20

Palau

Latitude

2100

20 oN

Biomass change (%)

40

40 oN

Figure 4.5.4 Projected distributions of skipjack tuna biomass across the tropical Pacific Ocean under the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. (a) Simulationsfor 2005, 2035, 2050 and 2100 derived from the SEAPODYM model (Lehodey et al., 2013), including projected average percentage changes for the boxed
areas east and west of 170oE. (b) Recent average annual catches of skipjack tuna (2000–2010) from exclusive economic zones of selected Pacific Island
countries and territories; FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, PNG = Papua New Guinea. (c) Estimated changes in biomass relative to virgin stock levels(dark blue), and incorporating fishing effort 1.5 times greater than the average for 1990­–1999 (light blue), for 2035, 2050 and 2100 (source: Bell et al., 2013).

4.5.3.2 South-east Asia
Based on the ‘Sea Around Us2’ catch data (Pauly andZeller, 2016), total marine fisheries catch in South-east
Asia increased from around 2.5 million tonnes per year in
the 1950s to more than 25 million tonnes in the 1990s.
Catches have since stabilized at around that level, witha decreasing trend in the last decade.
The increase in marine and freshwater fish catch, andin the production from freshwater aquaculture and2 www.seaaroundus.org

Ocean Warming

mariculture, has enabled per capita fish consumption
in South-east Asia to increase from ~13 to 32 kg perperson per year since 1961 (FAO, 2012). As a result,present-day fish consumption in the region is well inexcess of the global average of ~19 kg per person
per year (FAO, 2014a). Nevertheless, many fish stocks
in the region have been over-exploited, with resource
abundance at the end of the 20th Century being 5-30%
relative to the level in the 1950s (Silvestre et al., 2003).
Correspondingly, marine fisheries in the South China
Sea area are now characterized by high numbers offishing vessels and collectively employ millions of people(Table 4.5.2).

415

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Table 4.5.2 Summary of approximate number of fishing vessels and the number of people employed in marine and coastal fisheries (from 2000–2012,
depending on data availability), together with estimated landed value in 2012, in selected countries/areas in the South China Sea (SCS) (source: Dyck andSumaila, 2010; ; Sumaila and Cheung, 2015)

Country/Area

No. fishingvessels

No. people
employed

Landed value(USD x 1000)

China - northern SCS

92,300648,800

9,807,035

Hong Kong

4,000

8,800

296,774

Indonesia

76,800320,000

1,084,985

Malaysia - east coast, Sabah, Sarawak

24,60056,0001,219,133

Philippines –regions NCR, CAR, I, III, IV

117,000

627,000

817,335

Taiwan231,600

271,600

2,731,292

Thailand

58,100168,700

1,286,627

Vietnam

129,500

540,000

4,384,180

Maintaining the significant contribution of marine
fisheries and mariculture to per capita fish consumption
and livelihoods in South-east Asia will be a formidable
challenge as the ocean continues to warm. It will depend
greatly on future GHG emissions and the level of effective
fisheries management (Sumaila and Cheung, 2015).
Under a high ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario(RCP8.5), harvests from marine fisheries in South-east

Asia are projected to decrease by 10% to >30% by 2050
relative to 1970-2000, depending on the country (Figure
4.5.5) (Cheung et al., 2016a). The reduced harvests are
expected to be driven by local extinctions as specieschange their distributions in response to the increases
in water temperature. Overall, loss of more than 20% of
the original fish species richness in South-east Asia is
projected by 2050 (Jones and Cheung, 2015).

Figure 4.5.5 Multi-model ensemble projections of mean percentage changes in potential fish catch from South-east Asia by 2050, relative to recent catchlevels (1971–2000), under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario (source: Cheung et al., 2016a).

416

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4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

Under-performing fisheries management in the region will
exacerbate the impact of climate change. For example, arecent assessment of the effects of a business as usual
emissions scenario combined with status quo levelsof fisheries exploitation in the South China Sea, using
trophodynamic models, projected that the biomassof several groups of fish species (including groupers,
sharks, threadfin breams and croakers) could decreaseby 50% or more (Sumaila and Cheung, 2015). On theother hand, a low GHG emissions scenario can reducethe impacts from climate change and ocean acidificationon the marine ecosystem. Simultaneously, substantial
reduction of fishing will rebuild over-exploited fish stocks.
Both of these measures would be expected to have apositive impact on the biomass of most stocks. However,reducing effort would result in lower catches for severalof the main species while stocks are rebuilt, creating aneven wider gap in fish supply to be filled by mariculture(and freshwater aquaculture) (see Para. 4.5.4).

4.5.3.3 East Africa and Western Indian Ocean
The high population density in coastal and small island
developing states in East Africa and the Western

Indian Ocean (WIO) relative to coral reef area (Table
4.5.3), coupled with poverty-driven dependence on
fishing for food and cash, has caused degradation ofthese important fish habitats through over-harvestingand destructive fishing (Wells et al., 2007; Wafar etal., 2011; Samoilys et al., 2015). As a result, fisheries
based on coral reefs now only make a modest
contribution to per capita fish consumption, typicallyless than 5 kg per year, for communities living within
25 km of the coast (Table 4.5.3). Seychelles andMayotte are the exceptions. By 2030, coral reefs will
provide even less fish per person due to predicted
population growth. Ocean warming, which has
caused widespread coral mortality (Obura, 2005;
Ateweberhan et al., 2011) and reduced productivity ofcoral reef fisheries (Graham et al., 2007) in the WIO,
is exacerbating the situation. Consequently, smallscale fishers in the region are being encouraged totransfer more of their effort offshore to tuna and otheroceanic fish species. Because tuna and other oceanic
species fall within the mandate of the Indian Ocean
Tuna Commission, increased access to some of thesefish stocks, e.g. yellowfin tuna, by small-scale fishers

Table 4.5.3 Estimated availability of coral reef fish per capita (kg) in 2015 and 2030 for coastal populations in countries from East African and the Western
Indian Ocean.

2015

CountryCoral
reef area(km2)a2030

Estimated
Total
Reef fish Population Reef fish
reef fish
human
Population per capita
withinper capita
production population
within(within25
kmof(within(tonnes yr-1)b in 2015c
25 km of
25 km ofcoaste25 km ofcoastdcoast) (kg/coast) (kg/person/yr)
person/yr)

Somalia710

4,260 10,787,000

3,290,035

1.29

5,030,365

0.85

Kenya

1724

10,344 46,050,000

2,809,050

3.68

3,990,132

2.59

Tanzania

3580

21,480* 53,470,000

7,271,920

2.95 11,278,072

1.90

Mozambique1860

11,160 27,978,000

9,148,806

1.22 13,549,245

0.82Madagascar

2230

13,380 24,235,000

5,622,520

2.38

8,342,720

1.60

Seychelles

1690

10,14096,00096,000105.63101,000

100.40Comoros

430

2,580

788,000

788,000

3.27

1,081,000

2.39

Mayotte (France)

985

5,910

240,000

240,000

24.63

344,000

17.18

La Reunion (France)

18.6

112

861,000

861,000

0.13

947,000

0.12

Mauritius

870

5,220

1,273,000

1,273,000

4.10

1,310,000

3.98* Likely to be an over-estimate because large areas of Tanzania’s reefs have been destroyed by dynamite fishing (Wells, 2009; Slade and Kalangahe, 2015); a = sources: UNEP
(2009) except Kenya (Samoilys et al., in press), Reunion (Nicet et al., 2015); Mayotte (Andréfouë et al., 2009); b = calculated as total coral reef area in km x 6 tonnes (based on
6.09 tonnes km-2 yr-1 for Kenya in 2006 (Samoilys et al., in press); c = UN World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision Vol. 1; d = source: UNEP (2009); e = UN World Population
Prospects: 2015 Revision Vol. 1.

Ocean Warming

417

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

a)

b)

c)

Figure 4.5.6 Reconstruction of the history of yellowfin tuna dynamics and fisheries in the Western Indian Ocean using the SEAPODYM model and resultspresented in Senina et al. (2015). The panels show the average spatial distribution of yellowfin tuna density for three different life history stages: a) larvae,b)young fish caught by purse seine, and c) adults caught by longline. The locations of catches of young fish made by purse seine are shown with circles on
panel b) (largest circle radius corresponds to a catch of 200 tonnes) and the locations of catches of adults by longline are shown with circles on panel c)(largest circle radius corresponds to a catch of 10 tonnes).

will need to be accommodated through reallocation ofa proportion of the catch of industrial fleets so that nonet increase in catch occurs. However, some oceanic
fish species in the WIO, such as skipjack tuna andkawakawa tuna, are not currently overfished and not
subject to overfishing (IOTC, 2015).
Ocean warming is likely to affect this recommended
adaptation to some extent. For example, preliminarymodelling of the effects of higher water temperatureson yellowfin tuna, one of the large pelagic fish species
commonly caught by small-scale fishers in the WIO(Herrera and Pierre, 2010; Kaplan et al., 2014),
indicates that substantial changes in the distribution andabundance of this species are likely to occur in the future(Senina et al., 2015). Relatively good confidence can beplaced in these projections because the SEAPODYM
model (Lehodey et al., 2008) used for the simulations
predicts the historical catch of yellowfin tuna in the mainfishing grounds well (Figure 4.5.7).
The modelling indicates that stronger stratification will
occur in the upper water column, leading to reduced
production of phytoplankton, zooplankton andmicronekton in the food web that supports yellowfin
tuna in tropical regions of the WIO. The simulations

418

show that distribution of larval yellowfin tuna is likely
to become less dense in the equatorial region andincrease in the western Arabian Sea by the middle ofthe century. These changes are driven by a favourable
increase in water temperature in the western Arabian
Sea and an unfavourable and strong decrease inphytoplankton (primary production) in the equatorial
region. By 2050, the density of adult yellowfin tuna is
projected to decrease throughout the WIO, with thegreatest decreases occurring from Kenya southward(Figure 4.5.6). Simulations at a higher resolution are
now needed to confirm the results from the preliminarymodelling.

4.5.3.4 West Africa
Although annual per capita fish consumption in mostcountries in West Africa is lower than the global average(Table 4.5.4), several nations in the region have arelatively high dependence on fish and fisheries forfood and income due to the scarcity of other sourcesof animal protein (Brashares et al., 2004; Smith et al.,2010). Fish is also an important source of the essential
micronutrients and vitamins missing from local staples(rice, maize and cassava), in particular, iron, iodine,zinc, calcium and vitamins A and B (Roos et al., 2007;
Kawarazuka, 2010; Golden et al., 2016).

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food securitya)b)

Figure 4.5.7 a) Projected changes in distribution of
adult yellowfin tuna biomass in the western Indian
Ocean between 2005 and 2050 for a ‘businessas usual’ high emissions scenario (IPCC RCP8.5)
using SEAPODYM and the IPSL Earth model forcing
simulations (source: Senina et al., 2015); b) estimatedchanges in biomass relative to original unfishedstock levels between 2005 and 2050, and estimatedaverage catch of yellowfin tuna (YFT) for the
exclusive economic zones of selected countries in
East Africa/Western Indian Ocean. Catch data wereobtained from the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission
and combine both industrial catches from the georeferenced catch-and-effort dataset and artisanalcatches from the nominal catches dataset (seehttp://iotc.org/documents/all-ce-files and http://iotc.
org/documents/nominal-catch-species-and-gearvessel-flag-reporting-country, respectively, for an
explanation of possible errors involved in combining
these datasets).
Table 4.5.4 Estimated annual average per capita food fish supply in West African countries (2007–2011), together with the average volume of fish taken by
distant water fishing nations (DWFNs) licensed to fish in a nation’s exclusive economic zone, and volume of fish exported, per year.

Country
Sierra Leone
GambiaGhana
SenegalCôte d’Ivoire
Nigeria
Cape Verde
Guinea
Mauritania
Togo
Benin
Liberia
Guinea BissauabcFish supply(kg/capita/year)ª
33.2
28.9
26.5
25.2
17.5
16.0
11.1
9.4
9.2
6.8
3.6
3.2
1.8

Fish caught by DWFNs(tonnes)b
34, 900
63,9001,700
281,000
91,50017,0003,300
555,300
1,640,200
33,0003,500
71,400198,600

Fish exports(tonnes)c
5,600
3,300
22,400108,200
40,60022,70014,5007,600
149,700
1,500
600
100
4,400

based on fish food supply data (source: FAO, 2015)
annual average catch between 2006 and 2010 extracted from the Sea Around Us catch reconstruction database (www.seaaroundus.org)
source: FAO (2016) (http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-commodities-production/query/en)

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4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Figure 4.5.8 Percentageof forecasted fish demand
expected to be supplied bycatches from the wild inWest African countries by the2050s under a high emissions
scenario (SRES A1B) (darkblue) and assuming thatemissions can be reduced
to the year 2000 level (lightblue). Future fish demand wasestimated using current percapita fish consumption andprojected national population
growth (United Nations, 2009).

Percentage of forecasted fish demand

100
450
150
90

80
70
60

50
40
30
20
10
0

Some countries in the region gain government revenue
from licensing distant water fishing nations (DWFNs)
targeting small pelagic fish, squid and cuttlefish within
their exclusive economic zones, or from exporting
substantial quantities of fish (Table 4.5.4). Althoughrevenues from licences and exports can boost
purchasing power to buy food, there is concern that thefocus on revenue has been at the expense of long-term
economic development and food security (Trouillet etal., 2011; Belhabib et al., 2013, 2014).

Country

Population growth is expected to result in a significant
increase in demand for fish in West Africa. For example,
twice as much fish will be needed by Benin and Liberia
by 2050 (Lam et al., 2012). Regrettably, present-day
fisheries management, trade and distribution practices
will not be able to deliver the fish required in the future(Delgado et al., 2003, Béné and Heck, 2005). Modellingalso indicates that there will be a shortfall in fish supply
for all countries in West Africa due to climate change by
2050 (Lam et al., 2012).

Figure 4.5.9 Fishermen in Cape Verde off the western coast of the African continent. © Dyhia Belhabib.

420

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

Continued high GHG emissions are expected to increase
the gap further (Figure 4.5.8) (Lam et al., 2012), withthe largest differences between forecasted demand forfish and projected fish catch occurring in Benin, Côte
d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Western Sahara. Across the region,
the potential reduction in total annual landings by the2050s under a high emissions scenario is estimated to
be 670,000 tonnes (i.e. a reduction of 26% comparedto current levels) (Lam et al., 2012). For the EEZs of thesix countries located closest to the equator (Ghana,Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Togo, Nigeria and Sierra Leone),catches are projected to be reduced by around 50%.
The projected decreases are due to the expected shifts
in distribution of fish species in response to higher watertemperatures, and a decrease in net primary productivity
in the tropical region by the 2050s (Sarmiento et al.,
2004; Bopp et al., 2013).
Reduced future landings of fish in West Africa are not
only expected to have implications for food security,
they will affect the economies of countries that arehighly dependent on fish exports, such as Mauritania
and Senegal. In this region, narrowing the gap in the fishneeded for local food security and reducing the burden
involved in importing fish will depend on rebuilding
overfished or depleted stocks, reducing post-harvest

losses and ensuring that a sufficient proportion of theregion’s rich small pelagic fish resources are allocatedfor local consumption (FAO, 2014a). It will also depend
on increasing the currently low capacity of fishingcommunities (Belhabib et al., 2016) to adapt to climatechange (Figure 4.5.9).

4.5.3.5 Central and South America
Consumption of fish is relatively low in several Latin
American countries (Flores, 2014) due to ready accessto other animal protein and cultural preferences (Table
4.5.5). However, the region makes a substantial
contribution to the global supply of fish, and the supplyof fish meal for mariculture, freshwater aquaculture andanimal husbandry (Gasalla and Castro, 2016). Overall,
the wide variety of marine fisheries in the region, whichrange from the world’s largest fishery (Peruvian anchovy)
to squid fisheries in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans,to numerous small-scale coastal fishing activities, haveyielded annual catches exceeding 10 million tonnes forseveral decades (FAO, 2016).
Harvests from the large fisheries in Peru and Chile, andfisheries in Brazil and Argentina, vary significantly fromyear to year, however, due to the profound effects ofthe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Bakun, 1993;

Table 4.5.5 Recent population, total fish catch and patterns of per capita fish consumption for selected countries in Latin America (source: FAO, 2014a;
Flores, 2014).

Country

Population in 2012
(million)

Total fish catch in2012(tonnes)

Argentina

41,900,000

7380,00

5.0

StableBrazil

198,700,000

842,900

11.2+ 6 kg in 10 years

Chile

17,460,000

2,572,881

6.4

StableColombia

47,700,000

75,651

6.1+2.1 kg in 6 years

Guyana800,000

3,900

34.0

StableHonduras

7,930,000

8,300

3.5

Increasing

Mexico120,800,000

1,581,579

13.2

StableNicaragua

5,920,000

33,8507.5

StablePanama3,840,000

176,649

25

StablePerú28,990,000

4,807,923

19.0

Increasing

Uruguay

3,400,000

76,1626.0

StableVenezuela

29,950,000

213, 069

6.5

Increasing

Ocean Warming

National fishconsumption(person-1 yr-1)(kg)

Trend in fishconsumption421

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Figure 4.5.10 North-central and southern stock Peruvian anchovy landings between 1959 and 2008 in relation to El Niño events (source: IMARPE).

Sharp and McLain, 1993; Garcia et al., 2004). This is
illustrated best by the effects of ENSO on the productionof Peruvian anchovy: catches fall dramatically during El
Niño events when weakening of the south-east tradewinds limits the upwelling of the nutrient-rich waters
required to support a high biomass of this species,
but increase dramatically when strong upwellingrecommences under La Niña conditions (Daw et al.,2009; Arias Schreiber et al., 2011) (Figure 4.5.10). It
remains to be seen whether ocean warming will change
the effects of La Niña events on the Peruvian anchovy
fishery and the strength of the upwelling involved. It isinteresting to note, however, that Barange et al. (2014)
project declines in fish production in Peru based ona model incorporating upwelling systems. Maximizing
the sustainable benefits of this globally significant
fishery will continue to depend on applying the various
strategies identified to cope with great variation inabundance due to climatic variability (Arias Schreiber
et al., 2011).
In contrast, ocean warming and the knock-on effects
on ocean circulation and stratification on primary
production (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014) are expected
to disrupt fishing patterns for a variety of other marine
fisheries in the region. The effects of ocean warming
are expected to be particularly strong in South Brazil
and Uruguay (Popova et al., 2016). Elsewhere, theimpacts of ocean warming are expected to be mixed.

422

For example, catches of 10 of the top 12 fish species
caught in Mexico are projected to decline by 2050
under a high GHG emissions scenario (Sumaila et al.,2014); landings by small-scale fisheries are projected
to decrease in tropical areas as species move poleward
in response to thermal stress (Cheung et al., 2010) andsea-level rise reduces the extent of coastal fish nursery
habitats (Costa et al., 1994; Canziani et al., 1998);
Pacific and Atlantic sardines are expected to continue
to move into cooler and deeper waters (Gasalla,
2012; Silva et al., 2015); skipjack tuna are likely to be
more abundant in the Inter-American Sea and otherproductive oceanic areas (Muhling et al., 2015); andjumbo squid are expected to continue to be caught
more commonly by Peruvian and Chilean small-scale
fisheries (Rodhouse et al., 2014).
The mixed responses of species to ocean warming inCentral and South America will result in advantages forsome countries and disadvantages for others. Artisanal
fishers in Latin America dependent on coastal fish
species for food and income are likely to suffer hardship
where species move poleward, because the restrictedmobility of fishers will prevent them from operating further
afield to target the usual stocks. In other locations, there
may be enhanced opportunities for livelihoods throughcreation of more sport fishing enterprises targeting
increased abundances of species of interest to anglers.

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4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

Figure 4.5.11 Trends in shrimp production, in selected years, in major producing countries from 2000 onwards (source: FAO, 2014b).

4.5.4 Effects on mariculture
For the past two decades, most mariculture production
has occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics and been
dominated by seaweed and molluscs (De Silva andSoto, 2009; FAO, 2014a). Substantial shrimp farming
also occurs in tropical and subtropical coastal andestuarine areas (Ahmed and Diana, 2015) (Figure
4.5.11), supplying >70% of shrimp marketed globally(Benzie, 2009) (Figure 4.5.12). However, all shrimp
culture depends on feeds containing fish meal.

The rapid development of aquaculture during recent
decades is expected to continue, and will need toprovide most of the increasing demand for fish (FAO,
2014a) (Figure 4.5.13). It remains to be seen whether
more finfish will be produced through mariculturein the future – at present, only 10% of farmed finfish
production occurs in coastal waters (FAO, 2016).
Expansion of finfish aquaculture in fresh water will
become increasingly difficult unless environmentally
sustainable cage culture can be accommodated

Figure 4.5.12 Harvesting shrimp(Penaeus monodon), Chilaw, Sri
Lanka. © Sena De Silva.

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4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Figure 4.5.13 Intensive finfish cage culture in Xinqua Bay, Hainan Island, China. © Sena De Silva.

in water bodies impounded for other purposes – aprocess that has already begun in some developing
countries (Abery et al., 2005; Blow and Leonard,
2007; De Silva and Phillips, 2007). But mariculture of
finfish also faces limitations because low-cost farming
methods are largely restricted to sheltered coastal
areas. Although technology and computer simulations
exist for offshore expansion of mariculture by anchoringlarge sea cages in open ocean areas (Duarte et al.,2009), such developments are often likely to be
beyond the financial resources of developing nations,which have the greatest needs for fish. Nevertheless,
it is perhaps inevitable that the proportion of farmed
finfish produced by mariculture will need to increase.
Recent assessments indicate that ocean warming
can be expected to affect plans to expand mariculture
both directly and indirectly (De Silva and Soto, 2009;
De Silva, 2012b). The main direct impacts are likely
to be caused by alterations in the suitability of areasfor growing particular species, driven by higher watertemperature.

424

Fish mariculture in temperate regions, where much of thepresent-day production occurs (Halwart et al., 2007), is
expected to be affected negatively by ocean warming.
Salmon farming and the emerging culture of cod Gadus
morhua need to operate within a relatively narrow rangeof temperatures for optimal performance. Temperatures>17 ºC would be detrimental to salmon and cod farming
because feed intake drops and feed utilization efficacy is
reduced above this threshold (Anon., 2008).
Changes are also expected to occur in prime locations
for farming tropical and sub-tropical marine finfish, suchas groupers, snappers and cobia, as water temperatures
increase. Where temperatures begin to exceed thethermal optima for these species, mariculture operations
will need to move to higher latitudes.
The effects of a warmer ocean, manifested throughchanges in current patterns, and in salinity, run-off ofnutrients and dispersal of pollutants resulting fromhigher rainfall, are also likely to reduce the productivityof other mariculture operations in tropical areas. For

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

example, abrupt changes in salinity and alteration ofcoastal currents can be expected to affect recruitmentof wild post-larvae collected for grow-out (World Bank,
2000; Ahmed et al., 2013).
One of the main indirect effects of ocean warming on
mariculture is expected to be more frequent disease
outbreaks arising from redistribution of existing
pathogens and increased virulence of previously
dormant pathogens (Harvell et al., 1999; Mennerat,
2010; Altizer et al., 2013; Leung and Bates, 2013;
Chadag, 2014) (Table 4.5.6). The recent effects of earlymortality syndrome on shrimp farming (FAO, 2013)provide another insight into the economic losses thatcan occur as a result of mariculture diseases. The
incidence of ice–ice disease during farming of seaweed
Kappaphycus alvarezii (‘cottonii’) and Eucheuma
denticulatum (‘spinosum’) has also increased recently
in north-east Sulawesi, Indonesia (Aslan et al., 2015).
Factors that predispose seaweed to this disease include
changes in temperature, salinity, light intensity, andcolonization by bacteria, fungi and epiphytes (Largo etal., 1995a,b; Largo, 2002; Solis and Draeger, 2010).
Another indirect threat to mariculture from warmer, more
nutrient-rich, coastal waters is that the frequency of harmful

Table 4.5.6 Aquatic diseases prevalent in tropical countries and their relationship with some of the key elements of climate change (source: Mohan, 2015)

DiseaseDescription and sensitivity to climate change

Infection with Aphanomyces
invadans (Epizootic Ulcerative
Syndrome-EUS)

Fish fungal disease.
Seasonal disease of wild and farmed freshwater and estuarine fish; grows bestat 20-30 C; salinity over 2 ppt can stop the spread, 97 species of fish confirmed
to be susceptible; no data available on vectors; transmission horizontal;
outbreaks normally associated with cooler months of the year and after rainfall.

Koi herpes virus disease (KHVD)

Fish viral disease.
Reported both in tropics and temperate regions; common carp and varietiesof this species like koi are most susceptible; disease pattern influenced bytemperature; occurring between 16 and 25oC.

Viral Encephalopathy andRetinopathy (VER)

Fish viral disease.
Serious disease of mainly marine fishes; reported from more than 50 species;
water most important abiotic vector; reported in both tropics and temperateregions; outbreaks related to water temperature.

White Spot Disease (WSD)

Shrimp viral disease.
Wide host range, especially decapod crustaceans, in marine, brackish andfreshwater systems; horizontal and vertical transmission, outbreaks inducedby rapid changes in salinity; temperature has profound influence on disease
outbreaks with temperatures of 16-30oC conducive for outbreaks; stocking incold season is one of the predisposing factors of WSD outbreaks.

Infectious Myonecrosis

Shrimp viral disease.
Temperature and salinity effects are considered to be predisposing factors todisease outbreaks

White tail disease

Viral disease of freshwater prawn.
Penaeid shrimp and aquatic insects are vectors; rapid change in salinity,
temperature and pH are predisposing factors to disease outbreak.

Shrimp AHPNDEmerging bacterial disease of shrimp.
Caused by pathogenic strain of Vibrio parahaemolyticus; reported from Asiaand Latin America; nutrient loading and water quality as predisposing factors.

Fish ectoparasites like
protozoans, flukes, crustaceans(Argulus, Lernaea)Life cycle and larval development influenced by water temperature.

Streptococcus infection in fishes Diverse host range; higher temperatures (>30°C) predisposes fishes like tilapia
to outbreaks of Streptococcus infection.

Ocean Warming425

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

algal blooms (HABs) could increase (Peperzak, 2003;
Edwards et al., 2006; Al-Azri et al., 2015). HABs pose athreat to human health through consumption of filter-feedingmolluscs, resulting in what is commonly called ‘shellfish
poisoning’. The effects of HABs can also be expected todislocate local benefits from mariculture, e.g. employment.
Possible shortages in the supply of fish used to makethe fish meal and fish oil ingredients in mariculture
feeds (De Silva and Soto, 2009) is one potential indirect
impact not expected to unduly disrupt the expansionof marine fish farming. Recent modelling suggeststhat technological developments should reduce thedependence of mariculture on fish meal (Merino et al.,2012; Barange et al., 2014).

4.5.5 Global assessments for marine capture
fisheries
Recent assessments of the future status of marine fishstocks include not only studies examining the projected
effects of climate change but also those focusing on thepossible effects of improvements in management. For
example, Costello et al. (2016) examined more than 4,700
fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of reported global
fish catch, and concluded that: 1) the median fishery is inpoor health; 2) only 32% of fisheries are in good biologicalcondition; 3) applying sound management reforms could
generate annual increases in global catch exceeding 16
million tonnes; and 4) appropriate reforms could resultin rapid recovery, with the median fishery taking lessthan 10 years to reach target levels. In short, commonsense reforms to fishery management could improveoverall fish abundance and increase food security andprofits. However, as useful as such assessments are,the proposed improvements in management may be oflimited value unless they also integrate the likely effects
of climate change from global assessments, like thosedescribed below (Schindler and Hilborn, 2015).
Global assessments of future fish production that include
climate change as a driving factor, confirm the patterns
from the five developing country regions – there will bewinners and losers (Weatherdon et al., 2016). Thus, thescope for increased catches outlined by Costello et al.
(2016) can be expected to vary among locations. As ageneral rule, global assessments project losses of fish
species and decreased fisheries production in tropicalareas and increases in higher latitude temperate areas(Allison et al., 2009; Cochrane et al., 2009; Cheung etal., 2011; Blanchard et al., 2012; Barange et al., 2014;
Jones and Cheung, 2015).

426

However, differences occur among assessments,
depending on the modelling approach used, when
projections are downscaled to regional or national levels,
highlighting differing uncertainties among models. For
example, Barange et al. (2014) project a different patternof winners and losers among West African countries
than those described in para. 4.5.3.4. Use of ensemble
modelling approaches promises to help reduce suchinconsistencies and quantify the uncertainties relating toprojections of fisheries production due to climate change
and, ultimately, help build confidence in using theseprojections for policy discussion (Jones et al., 2012;
Jones and Cheung, 2015; Cheung et al., 2016b). For
example, the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model
Intercomparison Project (FISH-MIP) seeks to collate
global research efforts to compare global and regional
projections of living marine resources and fisheries.
It aims to standardize model inputs, where possible,and compare outputs from multiple models to assessclimate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems
and the services that they provide.

4.5.6 Implications for food security
From the evidence summarized above, there is every
reason to believe that ocean warming will reduceor redistribute the benefits of marine fisheries andmariculture in those regions of the world with a highdependence on fisheries for food security and livelihoods(Figure 4.5.14).
All four dimensions of the contributions of marine
fisheries and mariculture to food security will be affected(Cochrane et al., 2009). The availability of fish will varyas a result of changes in fish habitats, fish stocks andthe distributions of species. The stability of supply willbe altered by changes in seasonality, increased variancein ecosystem productivity and increased variability incatches. Access to fish will be affected by changes inopportunities to derive livelihoods from marine fisheries
and mariculture, utilization of fish will be affected becausesome communities will need to adjust to species notconsumed traditionally, and increased prevalence ofaquatic diseases and HAB are likely to render some fish
production inedible more frequently.
The effects on food security are likely to be greatest
in tropical and subtropical countries where the largest
reductions in fisheries production are generally expected
to occur. However, as profound as the effects of ocean
warming on productivity of marine fisheries are likely to
be in many of these countries, population growth andOcean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

Figure 4.5.14 Fishers sorting their nets near Honiara, Solomon Islands. © Johann Bell.

the quality of resource management will probably havea much greater influence on availability of fish per capita
for the next few decades (Para. 4.5.3). This implies thatgovernments must identify effective ways of minimizing
and filling the gap between the amount of fish readily
available and the quantities of fish required for goodnutrition of national populations.

4.5.7 Recommended adaptations
The main adaptations to reduce the gap in supply of fish
for food security involve instituting better managementof fish habitats and fish stocks (Figure 4.5.15), andimproving supply chains. To fill the gap, governments
will need to ensure that mariculture (and freshwateraquaculture) continue to develop in environmentally

Poorly-managed fisheries
Quantity of fish/habitata)Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat

Fish
Fish available
available fromfromcoastalstocksstocksGap in supply of fish to
be filled

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Figure 4.5.15 The importance ofmanaging fish habitats and fish stocks
well to minimize the gap between the fish
required for good nutrition of populations
and sustainable harvests of fish (source:
Bell et al., 2011b).

Ocean Warming

Quantity of fish/habitatb)

Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available fromstocksFish available fromcoastal stocks

Time

427

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

Figure 4.5.16 Differences in the quality of coastal fish habitats when catchments are managed well or managed poorly (source: Bell et al., 2011c).

sustainable ways (De Silva and Soto, 2009; De Silva,
2012b; Hall et al., 2011; FAO, 2014a) and, where
necessary, reallocate some of the fish normally traded(either as exports or through sale of licences to DWFNs)
to domestic consumption.

4.5.7.1 Adaptations to reduce the gap
Where they are currently weak, improvements inthe following two broad categories of management
will help to reduce the gap by optimizing fisheries
production.
1. Reducing the impact of local stressors on fish
habitats. For example, restoring catchment
vegetation to minimize the effects of run-off ofsediments and nutrients on coral reefs, mangroves

428

and seagrasses (Figure 4.5.16). The need for suchintegrated coastal management and marine spatialplanning is widely recognized (Sale et al., 2014),
and may extend to constructing artificial habitats toincrease the capacity of coastal environments forfish recruitment. Integrated coastal management is
now imperative to reduce the negative effects ofcoastal development on fisheries production andthe incidence of HABs.
2. Keeping production of fisheries within sustainablebounds using the most appropriate management
measures for the national context and an
ecosystem approach that integrates the effects
of climate change (Heenan et al., 2015; Samoilys
et al., 2015). For many developing countries, thiswill depend on primary fisheries management

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

Figure 4.5.17 General relationship between potential benefits from fisheries (green line), and uncertainty in information for management (blue line), asfunctions of costs, for primary, secondary and tertiary fisheries management (source: Cochrane et al., 2011 and Bell et al., 2011c). The reduction in benefits
under primary fisheries management as a result of the increased uncertainty caused by ocean warming and other features of climate change (CC) is
indicated by the orange shading.

(Cochrane et al., 2011)3, which will need to
become progressively more precautionary as theocean continues to warm (Figure 4.5.17) and be
well enforced (Samoilys et al., in press). Climateinformed, primary fisheries management will
involve raising awareness of the alterations in fish
distribution and abundance due to ocean warming
and diversifying fishing practices to take catches
representative of the changes in relative abundanceof species (Cheung et al., 2013b). For coral reef
fisheries, herbivorous fish species are expected tocomprise a higher proportion of the catch in the
future (Pratchett et al., 2011). However, harvestingof herbivorous fish will need to be restrained toensure they remain plentiful enough to help remove
the algae that inhibit the survival and growth ofcorals (Bellwood et al., 2004).
Improvements to supply chains, from beginning to end,
can also help fill the gap by making fishing more efficientand reducing waste. Environmental forecasting of thebest times to fish (and the onset of extreme events) via
mobile phone networks can reduce travel/search times
3 Primary fisheries management recognizes the need to use simple harvest
controls, such as size limits, closed seasons and areas, gear restrictions andprotection of spawning aggregations. In many cases it can be applied mosteffectively through community-based approaches (Govan et al., 2008; SPC,
2010; Rocliffe et al., 2014). Secondary and tertiary fisheries management
require greater investments in stock assessments to reduce uncertainty
about the economic benefits that can be gained from more accurate andprecise estimates of sustainable harvests.

Ocean Warming

for small-scale fishers and enhance diversification of
livelihoods into farming activities when fish are harder
to catch. Mobile phones can also be used to assessmarket conditions to optimize income and arrange thetiming of transport to markets. Improving fish handling,by providing better access to ice, for example, will
increase the time that catches remain fit for humanconsumption.

4.5.7.2 Adaptations to fill the gap
Increasing environmentally sustainable mariculture (andfreshwater aquaculture) is one of the most important
adaptations to the effects of ocean warming on theavailability of fish for food security. The following steps
will be particularly important:•••

improving national capacity by providing thenecessary technical knowledge, extension services
and incentives to scale-up the production ofjuvenile fish for grow-out and increase the numberof fish farms;
continuing the research needed to develop suitable
feeds for marine finfish with minimal fish meal andfish oil content, including exploration of the best
ways to incorporate fish processing waste into
feeds;
commencing
moregenetic
improvement
programmes to build the resilience of domesticatedspecies to higher SST and pathogens expected to
be favoured by ocean warming;429

4. The significance of warming seas for ocean ‘goods and services’

•

•

•

•

exploring the scope for domestication of additional
marine fish species (preferably omnivores) withpromising attributes for hatchery rearing, toleranceof higher temperatures and rapid growth in culture
systems;
promoting the capture and culture of wild-caught
post-larvae of species that have high postsettlement mortality but good survival in culture (Hairet al., 2002), provided such harvests do not haveadverse effects on recruitment to capture fisheries;
encouraging stock enhancement of coastal
species where it has been demonstrated that
release of culture juveniles adds value to otherforms of management (Bell et al., 2005b; Lorenzen
et al., 2010); andgrowing-out bycatch species, as done in India (pers.
comm. S. Shyam, CMFRI), in ways that addressrisks of overfishing as a result of this practice.

Despite the great need to increase aquaculture
production (Merino et al., 2012), for several developing
countries the most practical ways of filling the gap infish supply will be increasing access to large and small
pelagic fish presently caught mainly by industrial fleets.
Options available to governments include:•

Assisting small-scale coastal fishers to transfer
some of their fishing effort to pelagic fish byequipping them to fish safely and effectively further
from shore and expanding the use of nearshore
fish aggregating devices (Bell et al., 2015b) (Figure
4.5.18). Such investments not only increase accessto fish now, they will help communities adapt to
the negative effects of ocean warming on the•

productivity of fisheries associated with coral reefs(Bell et al., 2013). Even where tuna are projected
to decline within EEZs as the ocean warms (Para.
4.5.2), tuna are still expected to be abundantenough to make these adaptations effective.
Implementing policies that: 1) ensure that industrial
fishing operations do not have negative effects on
small-scale fishers, 2) require industrial fleets to land
bycatch, and target species if necessary, at major
ports to provide urban communities with low-cost
fish, and 3) facilitate the development of small andmedium enterprises to distribute fish to urban andperi-urban areas (Bell et al., 2015a). In many cases,
the fish to be retained for local food security can beoffloaded during routine transhipping operations
and may only be a small proportion of the totalindustrial catch. For example, only 3% of the tuna
catch in Papua New Guinea would be needed forcoastal and urban communities to have accessto the recommended quantities of fish for goodnutrition by 2020 (Table 4.5.1). Although reallocationof a small percentage of the recommended
tuna from the waters of PNG for direct domestic
consumption is likely to result in a small economic
loss, the benefits to public health are expected tobe substantial (Golden et al., 2016). Quantifying
this trade-off will assist governments to implement
the best food security policies for adapting to theeffects of ocean warming on fisheries resources.

Acknowledgements
We thank John Baxter, Kevern Cochrane, Peter Gardinerand Jonathan Peacey for their constructive suggestions
about how to improve the manuscript.

Figure 4.5.18 Nearshore fish
aggregating devices allow
some coastal fishing effort
to be transferred to pelagic(oceanic) fisheries resources(source: SPC, 2014). (However,managers should ensure thatno net increase in the overall
catch of oceanic fisheries
resources occurs by reducing
industrial catches to caterfor the needs of small-scale
fishers).

430

Ocean Warming

4.5 Fisheries and aquaculture to food security

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