Study Group on Political Turbulence in the Middle East
Goals and Activities
In January 2011, the large-scale demonstrations against President Ben Ali’s regime,dubbed the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia, spread throughout the Arab world andultimately led to President Mubarak of Egypt stepping down in February.
Confrontations between the government and demonstrators continue in Jordan, Yemen,and Syria, and even in the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and other countries on which
Japan relies for much of its energy supply, citizens’ calls for reform are causing theregimes serious concern. The efforts of democratic movements to reform authoritarian
dictatorships that have held power for a long time while working affirmatively fordemocratization undermine the stability of states that have held on to power by
suppressing with an iron-fisted rule all opposition existing within these states, butmany people worry that this will bring a new element of instability to the Middle East.
Both assessments are tentative. At the moment, it is all one can do just to keep up withthe rapid developments in these countries, so our grasp of the intricacies, must less theoverall picture, is inadequate.

Also unclear are the impact that this “Arab Spring” will

have on peace between Palestine and Israel, the greatest concern in the Middle East,and the response of the US, which wields tremendous influence in this region.
This study group, consisting of researchers considered experts on the Middle
East, will seek cooperation from Middle Eastern media researchers as well as expertson the US’ Middle Eastern policy in order to conduct diverse and comprehensive
research on the causes for the regime changes occurring in the region, and the possible
effects of these developments. It will examine the autocratic regimes throughout theMiddle East and issues of regional stability, which have a large effect indeed on thesafety and economic stability of Japan and the world through their supply of energy,
and will look to make an effective contribution to determining how Japan should
approach the region in its foreign relations.
Overview of Activities
This study group will try to get a better understanding of the trends and backgrounds ofthe current political upheavals in the Arab countries. At the same time, throughthorough consideration of Iran and the US, Internet media, satellite broadcasting
companies, Islamist movements, and various other actors operating both inside andoutside borders that mutually influence developments in these countries, the group will
not study political changes in individual Arab countries but rather will try tounderstand the Middle East as a whole and position it within the restructuring of theinternational order. The group will examine six specific topics of research:
1. The role of the media in political movements
2. The relationship between the army and the state/people in Arab states
3. Trends in Islamic movements
4. Trends and background factors in the political changes in the Arab states, inparticular Egypt, Syria, the Gulf States, Yemen and Palestine
5. Interaction with Middle East peace
6. The responses of the US and IranThe first meeting was held on May 11, 2011, to allow members to share theirperspectives on the issues to be addressed.

From here on, the group will meet

periodically and present a final report by March 2012.
Study Group Members
ChairmanTATEYAMA Ryoji

Professor, National Defense AcademyMembers
IKEDA Akifumi

Professor, Toyo Eiwa University

EZAKI Chie

ResearchFellow,

TheMiddle

East

Research

Institute of JapanSAKANASHI Sachi

Senior Researcher, JIME Center, Institute of Energy
Economics

SUZUKI Emi

Associate Professor, Waseda University

HORINUKI Koji

Research Fellow, JIME Center, Institute of Energy
Economics

MATSUMOTO Hiroshi

Professor, Daito Bunka University

MIKAMI Yoichi

Principal

DeputyDirector,

FourthDivision,Intelligence and Analysis Service, Ministry ofForeign Affairs
YAMAMOTO Tatsuya

Associate Professor, Nagoya University of Commerce& Business

Member & Secretary
MORIYAMA Teruaki

ResearchFellow,TheJapan

InstituteofJapanInstituteofInternational Affairs
Research Assistant
SUZUKI RyokoResearchAssistant,

International Affairs

The