ISO Standardization
Foresight Framework
ISO標準化 展望フレームワーク

Trend Report 2022
トレンドレポート 2022

英和対訳
一般財団法人 日本規格協会

݀Foreword

The future has begun.

݀SocietyAge groups | Consumption | Movement of people | Prosperity | Tech risks | The changing nature of work݀Technology

Computing | Connectivity | Cyber-physical systems | Smart manufacturing݀Environment

Energy | Environmental degradation݀

EconomyTrade݀Politics

Power transition

݀

Science

Biotechnology݀

Where to from here?

݀◌

まえがき
未来が始まった。

݀◌社会
年齢層 | 消費 | 移民 | 繁栄 | 技術リスク | 仕事の性質の変化

݀◌技術
コンピューティング | 接続性 | サイバーフィジカルシステム | スマートマニュファクチャリング݀◌

環境エネルギー | 環境悪化

݀◌

経済
貿易

݀◌

政治
権力の移行

݀◌

科学
バイオテクノロジー݀◌

ここからどこへ？

ForewordまえがきISO Standardization Foresight Framework | Trend Report 2022

The future has begun.
The world around us is changing and the pace of change is faster than ever before. The
future has begun and those who don’t want to get left behind must ensure their ability to lookahead. That is why ISO has developed a Standardization Foresight Framework; to help us look
more systematically at the long-term and to encourage discussion and exchange within the
ISO system about future opportunities for International Standardization.

In this report, we expand
upon the drivers ofchange identified in theStrategy, breaking themdown into smaller trends
and analyzing their links
to existing ISO work.

This trend report is the output of the first phase of the Standardization Foresight Framework:
environmental scanning. It is designed to support the ISO community to navigate global
trends as we work towards achieving the goals and priorities of the ISO Strategy 2030.
In this report, we expand upon the drivers of change identified in the Strategy, breaking
them down into smaller trends and analyzing their links to existing ISO work. Our ultimate aim
is to better understand the context in which we operate, so that ISO can effectively meet
emerging-market needs and help to shape a more sustainable future.

Foreword
Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

ISO標準化 展望フレームワーク | トレンドレポート 2022

未来が始まった。

私たちを取り巻く世界は変化しており，その変化のペースはかつてないほど速くなっています。未来は始まっています。取り残されたくないと思う人は，先を見据える能力を確保しなければなりません。そのため，ISO は標準化展望フレームワークを開発しました。より体系的に長期的に見ることを助け，国際標準化の将来の機会についてISOシステム内での議論と交換を促進するために。
このトレンド レポートは，標準化展望フレームワークの第 1 フェーズである環境スキャンの結果です。これは，ISO コミュニティが ISO 戦略 2030 の目標と優先事項の達成に向けて取り組む際に，世界的なト
レンドをナビゲートするのをサポートするように設計されています。
このレポートでは，戦略で特定された変化の原動力を拡大し，それらをより小さなトレンドに分解し，既存の ISO 業務との関連性を分析します。私たちの最終的な目標は，ISO が新興市場のニーズを効果的に満たし，より持続可能な未来を形成するのに役立つように，私たちが事業を行っている状況をよりよく理解することです。

Foreword

このレポートでは，戦略で特定された変化の原動力を拡大し，それらをより小さなトレンドに分解し，既存の ISO
業務との関連性を分析します。

Convergence

Many of the future trends in this report will be familiar. Readers will recognize, for example,
the climate emergency, accelerating and converging technologies, shifting geopolitical andeconomic power, changing demographics and evolving consumer preferences. Although
the content may not come as a surprise, we hope that pulling together this information will
provide readers with a new, macro perspective on the world around us and standardization’splace in it. This broad perspective should help to inform strategy and decision-making.

Above all, what emerges clearly from the trend
descriptions in this report is the high degree of
convergence and interlinkages between trends. Societal
trends are inextricably linked to technological advances,which are themselves affected by economic and politicaltrends, and so on. Many future challenges will ariseat the intersections of these trends, as domains thatwere once distinct from one another – such as biology
and information technology – become increasinglyintertwined. What could this mean for standardization?

The selected trends and STEEPS classification
This trend report does not claim to be all-encompassing – the trends presented here
are high-level and have been selected because of their relevance to standardization or
to the international landscape within which ISO operates. They are long-term driving
forces that are already having a visible impact at the global level. Specific events, suchas the COVID-19 pandemic or the conflict in Ukraine, are generally not mentioned at
this level, although an understanding of the trends presented here can help us to bettergrasp the context of these events and think more broadly about their potential longterm consequences.
Taking inspiration from the STEEPS analysis, which is a tool used in strategy to evaluate
the external factors impacting an organization (also known as PEST or PESTLE analysis),
we have chosen to classify our selected trends using the STEEPS categories of:
SOCIETY, TECHNOLOGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMY, POLITICS and SCIENCE.

Foreword
Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

このレポートの将来トレンドの多くは，よく知られているものです。読者は，たとえば，気候の緊急

収束事態，技術の加速と収束，地政学的および経済力の変化，人口動態の変化，消費者の嗜好の変化などを認識するでしょう。内容は驚くべきものではないかもしれませんが，この情報をまとめるこ

何よりも，本レポートのトレンド記述から明らかなのは，とで，私たちの周りの世界とその中での標準化の位置づけについて，新しいマクロな視点を読者

トレンド間の収束度と相互関連性の強さです。社会のに提供できることを願っています。この幅広い視点は，戦略と意思決定に役立つはずです。

動向は，技術の進歩と表裏一体であり，それ自体が経
済や政治の動向などの影響を受けます。生物学や情選択されたトレンドと STEEPS 分類
このトレンド レポートは，すべてを網羅しているとは主張していません。ここに提示されているトレ
ンドはハイレベルであり，標準化または ISO が運営されている国際的な状況との関連性から選択されています。それらは長期的な推進力であり，すでに世界レベルで目に見える影響を及ぼしています。 COVID-19 のパンデミックやウクライナでの紛争などの特定の出来事は，通常，このレベルでは言及されませんが，ここで提示されているトレンドを理解することで，これらの出来事の背景をよりよく理解し，その長期的な影響の可能性についてより広く考えるのに役立ちます。
組織に影響を与える外部要因を評価するための戦略で使用されるツールである STEEPS 分析(PEST または PESTLE 分析とも呼ばれます) からインスピレーションを得て，以下の STEEPS
カテゴリーを使用して選択したトレンドを分類することにしました：
社会, 技術, 環境, 経済, 政治 そして 科学

Foreword

報技術など，かつては互いに異なっていた領域がます
ます絡み合うようになるにつれて，これらのトレンドの交わる所で多くの将来の課題が発生します。これは標準化にとって何を意味するのでしょうか?

How to explore this trend report
Within the high-level STEEPS categories, trends have been grouped into 15 sub-categories.
The trends can be browsed in any order, according to interest.
Every trend includes an overall description, a list of ISO committees and key standards related
to the trend (if any), and links to other ISO resources such as news stories or publications.
For a more interactive experience and easier access to links to committees and resources,
we invite you to consult the Web version of the report: https://www.iso.org/foresight.html.
On the Website, the trend report can be explored by clicking on the sunburst chart and an
additional interactive chart allows you to visualize linkages between the trends.

Foreword
Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyWe invite you to consult
the web version of thereport: iso.org/foresight.html

Politics

Science

Where to from here?

このトレンドレポートの調査方法
高レベルの STEEPS カテゴリー内で，トレンドは 15 のサブカテゴリーにグループ化されています。ト
レンドは，興味に応じて任意の順序で閲覧できます。
すべてのトレンドには，全体的な説明，トレンドに関連する ISO 委員会と主要な規格 (存在する場合)のリスト，およびニュース記事や発行物などの他の ISO リソースへのリンクが含まれています。
よりインタラクティブな体験と，委員会やリソースへのリンクへの簡単なアクセスについては，レポートの Web バージョン (https：//www.iso.org/foresight.html) を参照することをお勧めします。 Web サイ
トでは，サンバースト チャートをクリックしてトレンド レポートを調べることができます。追加のインタラ
クティブ チャートを使用すると，トレンド間のつながりを視覚化できます。

Foreword

レポートの Web バージョンを参照することをお勧めします：iso.org/foresight.html

Research and methodology
The contents of this report are the result of an environmental scanning process
implemented by the ISO Central Secretariat (ISO/CS) Research and Innovation Unit (R&I).1
In order to identify the list of trends relevant for standardization, the R&I team selected
and reviewed publicly available trend reports from a wide variety of organizations(including governments, international organizations, think tanks, Non-Governmental
Organizations (NGOs), research institutes and consulting firms).2
To be selected for review, the trend reports had to meet a series of criteria: less than five
years old, published by a reputable source (no ideological bias and no profit motive), include
references and a clear methodology for identifying and investigating trends, and be regional
or global in focus. The trends chosen for inclusion in this report were those that featured mostfrequently across these publications and/or those that had a strong link to standardization, as
revealed by mapping the trends to ISO’s current and planned technical activities.

1.

The methodology was developed as part of the elaboration of the ISO Standardization Foresight Framework, in collaboration
with foresight experts from Future Impacts, https://future-impacts.de

2.

These sources are referenced in the trend report.

Foreword
Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

研究と方法論
このレポートの内容は，ISO 中央事務局 (ISO/CS) のリサーチ＆イノベーション部門 (R&I) によって実施された環境スキャン プロセスの結果です。1
標準化に関連するトレンドのリストを特定するために，R&I チームは，さまざまな組織 (政府，国際機関，シンクタンク，非政府組織 (NGO)，研究機関，コンサルティング企業など) から公開されているトレンドレポートを選択して検討しました。2
レビューのために選択されるためには，トレンド レポートは一連の基準を満たす必要がありました。5 年未満であり，信頼できる情報源 (イデオロギー的偏見や利益の動機がない) から発行されていること，トレンドを特定して調査するための参照と明確な方法論が含まれていること，地域的またはグローバルに焦点を当てていること。このレポートに含めるために選択されたトレンドは，これらの発行物で最も頻繁に取り上げられたもの，および/または ISO の現在および計画されている専門活動にトレンドをマッピングすることによって明らかにされた標準化との強い関連性を持つものです。

1.

The methodology was developed as part of the elaboration of the ISO Standardization Foresight Framework, in collaboration
with foresight experts from Future Impacts, https://future-impacts.de

2.

These sources are referenced in the trend report.

Foreword

Society݁Age groups݁Consumption݁

Movement of people݁Prosperity݁Tech risks݁

The changing nature of work

社会

݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌

年齢層
消費
移民
繁栄
技術リスク
仕事の性質の変化

Age groups
Ageing population | Young generation influences
These trends are about demographic changes at both ends of the spectrum. Overall,
the world’s population is growing older, but there are nevertheless some regions where
growing young populations will have significant impacts. While ageing populations will have
implications for the sustainability of public financing models and healthcare, growing young
populations will have implications for political behaviours and education systems. Both trends
will profoundly affect workforce and employment models.

Ageing population
Populations are ageing in most countries in the world.3 Population ageing describes anincrease in the size of a country’s population over a certain age. Generally, the cut-off foranalyzing growth in the ‘old age’ group is 65 years. That is, people considered to be of‘old age’ are aged 65 and over. For years now, increases in the proportion of populations
aged 65 and over have occurred in most countries. Population ageing occurs as a result ofmultiple factors:•

Related trends: Diversifying
inequalities, Gene editing,
Increasing migration, Reinventing
the workplace, Urbanization

Increase in average life expectancy: Average life expectancy is generally calculated
as ‘life expectancy at birth’. Life expectancy can be increased by decreasing childmortality; improvements in overall population health; the elimination of diseases that
contribute to premature deaths; and increased access to healthcare and other factors.
In many countries, life expectancy has increased with economic development.4

3.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

4.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

年齢層
人口の高齢化 | 若い世代の影響

これらのトレンドは，年齢層の両端における人口動態の変化に関するものです。全体として，世界の人口は高齢化が進んでいますが，若者の人口の増加が大きな影響を与える地域もいくつかあります。人口の高齢化は公的資金調達モデルと医療の持続可能性に影響を与える一方で，若者の人口の増加は政治的行動と教育システムに影響を与えます。どちらのトレンドも，労働力と雇用モデルに大きな影響を与えるでしょう。

人口の高齢化
世界のほとんどの国で高齢化が進んでいます。3 高齢化人口は，特定の年齢を超える国の人口規模の増加を表します。一般に，「高齢者」グループの増大を分析するためのカットオフは 65 歳です。つまり，「高齢者」と見なされる人々は 65 歳以上です。ここ数年，ほとんどの国で 65 歳以上の人口の割合が増加しています。人口の高齢化は，複数の要因の結果として発生します：•

平均寿命の伸び： 平均寿命は一般に「出生時余命」として計算されます。子供の死亡率を下げること；全体的な人口の健康状態の改善;早期死亡の一因となる病気の排除；ヘルスケアやその他の要因へのアクセスを増加させることで平均寿命を延ばすことができます。多くの国では，経済発展に伴い平均寿命が伸びています。43.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

4.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド： 不平等の多様化,
遺伝子編集, 移民の増加, 職場の再発明, 都市化••

In developed regions, life expectancies are increasing by about
two months per year. This adds about five years to the average
person’s lifespan per generation (all other factors being
equal).5 By 2040, average life expectancy will be above 80 in
59 countries6; in 2050, the global average life expectancy will
be 76.7
Low fertility rates: If people do not have enough children
to ‘replace’ the population, older age groups can start tooutnumber younger age groups.
Reduced migration: Migration generally brings young, workingage people into a population. If migration is reduced, theproportion of the population in those age groups may grow less.

Although every country will experience an increase in its average age
over the next few decades, the balance of forces driving this trend
will differ from country to country.

5.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

6.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

While population ageing started in high-income countries (forexample in Japan 30% of the population is already over 60 years old),
it is now low- and middle-income countries that are experiencing thegreatest change. By 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population over
60 years will live in low- and middle-income countries.8 In developing
countries, populations can ‘age before they grow rich’9,10, leading tochallenging strains on public resources.
The number of people reaching working age during the coming
decades will be significantly lower than in the preceding decades.11
The size of the working age population relative to the population ofretirees is called the ‘dependency ratio’. It is likely that by 2050, thedependency ratio will be below 2:1 in 35 countries around the world.
Conversely, the dependency ratio is expected to improve in many
African countries and parts of Asia.

7.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

8.

Ageing and health (World Health Organization, 2021)

9.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)10.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)11.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

先進地域では，平均寿命が毎年約 2 か月ずつ伸びています。これによ

人口の高齢化は高所得国で始まりましたが（たとえば，日本では人口のり，世代ごとの平均的な人の寿命が約 5 年長くなります (他のすべての30% がすでに 60 歳を超えている），現在，最も大きな変化を経験している

2040 年までに，平均寿命は 59 か国で 80 歳をのは低中所得国です。 2050 年までに，60 歳以上の世界人口の 3 分の 2

要因が等しい場合)。5
超えます。62050 年には，世界の平均寿命は 76 歳になります。7が低中所得国に住むことになります。8 発展途上国では，人々が「豊かにな•

低い出生率： 人々が人口を「置き換える」のに十分な子供を持たない場

る前に年をとって」9,10 しまう可能性があり，公共資源に困難な負担がかかる

合，高齢者の年齢層が若年層の数を上回り始める可能性があります。

可能性があります。

•

移民の減少： 移民は，一般にその地域の若い労働年齢層の人口の増

今後数十年の間に労働年齢に達する人々の数は，それ以前の数十年よりも大をもたらします。移民が減少すれば，これらの年齢層の人口の割合は大幅に少なくなるでしょう。11 生産年齢人口の規模を退職者の人口に対して減少する可能性があります。

「依存率」と呼びます。 2050 年までに，世界の 35 か国で依存率は 2：1 をどの国も今後数十年で平均年齢の上昇を経験するでしょうが，このトレンドを推進する力のバランスは国によって異なります。

5.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

6.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

下回る可能性があります。逆に，多くのアフリカ諸国やアジアの一部では，依存率が改善すると予想されています。

7.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

8.

Ageing and health (World Health Organization, 2021)

9.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)10.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)11.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹›
SocietyMigration can be an important contributor to increasing thedependency ratio in an otherwise ageing population.12 In many
countries, migration is already an important factor in maintaining
a working population that can meet the needs of the ageing
population.13 Immigration policies, particularly in developed countries,
will need to balance a growing demand for workers with internal
political tensions in the future.14

At a societal level, this trend has implications for:

While some older people will require care and support, older
populations in general are very diverse and make multiple
contributions to families, communities, and society more broadly. Yet
the extent of these opportunities and contributions depends heavily
on one factor: health. Supportive physical and social environments
enable people to do what is important to them, despite losses
in capacity.

•

•

•

Workforce: As people stay in the workforce for longer,
companies may need to reimagine workload design, talentmanagement and approaches to training and skilling workers.15
Some countries are already increasing retirement ages.16 We
can expect that workers may approach their careers differently,
with more ‘portfolio careers’ and life-long learning.17
Healthcare: Older people may require more and different
types of healthcare as they live longer within the period of life
associated with declining health.18 A goal for many countries in
the future will be ‘morbidity compression’ – the reduction of ill
health to the last few years of life.19
Consumer trends: Older adults, especially those with longer
periods of retirement after exiting the workforce, may havespecific ‘Consumption’ patterns. These may include mobility,
safety, and medical products, but also increased tourism,
leisure, and spending.20 Opportunities are expected in the

12.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)13.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)14.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)15.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)16.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)17.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

18.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)19.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)20.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

移民は，それがなければ高齢化する人口の依存率を高める重要な要

社会レベルでは，このトレンドは以下に影響を及ぼします：:

因となる可能性があります。12 多くの国では，高齢化社会のニーズを•満たすことができる労働人口を維持する上で，移民はすでに重要な要素となっています。13 移民政策は，特に先進国では，労働者に対する労働力： 従業員の勤務期間が長くなるにつれて，企業はワークロードの設計，人材管理，従業員のトレーニングとスキル向上へのアプローチを再考する必要があるかもしれません。15 一部の国では，すでに退職年

需要の高まりと国内の政治的緊張とのバランスを取る必要がありま

齢を引き上げています。16 労働者は，より多くの「ポートフォリオ キャリ

す。14ア」と生涯学習により，さまざまな方法で自分のキャリアにアプローチす一部の高齢者はケアとサポートを必要としますが，一般的に高齢者は非常に多様であり，家族，地域社会，および社会により広くさまざまな貢献をしています。しかし，これらの機会と貢献の程度は，健康という•1 つの要因に大きく依存します。支えとなる物理的および社会的環境

ヘルスケア： 高齢者は，健康状態の低下した期間が長くなるため，より多くのさまざまな種類のヘルスケアを必要とする場合があります。18 将
来の多くの国にとっての目標は，「罹患率の圧縮」，つまり健康を損ねた状態を最後の数年間に減らすことです。19

により，人は能力が低下しても，自分にとって重要なことを行うことがで•きます。

ることが期待できます。17

消費者のトレンド： 高齢者，特に退職後の期間が長い人は，特定の「消費」パターンを持っている可能性があります。これらには，モビリテ
ィ，安全性，医療製品が含まれる可能性がありますが，観光，レジャ
ー，支出の増加も含まれます。20 高齢者のライフスタイルや嗜好の変

12.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)13.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)14.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)15.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)16.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)17.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

18.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)19.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)20.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
Society•‘wellbeing economy’ and ‘The experience economy’ as the lifestyles and tastes of older
consumers change.21 While reduced spending in retirement can contribute to slowed
economic growth22, the global spending power of people over 60 is expected to havereached USD 15 trillion by 2020 and will continue to grow.23
Physical and social environments: Age friendly communities that offer safe andaccessible public buildings and transport, places that are easy to walk around andopportunities for social interaction help older people to maintain their quality of lifeand contribute to their families and communities.

21.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

22.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)23.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

化に伴い，「ウェルビーイングエコノミー」と「エクスペリエンスエコノミー」に好ましい機会が期待されます。21 退職後の支出の減少は経済成長の鈍化の一因となる可能性がありますが，22 60 歳以上の人々の世界的な購買力は 2020 年までに 15 兆米ドルに達し，今後も拡大すると予想されています。23• 物理的および社会的環境：安全でアクセスしやすい公共の建物や交通機関，歩きやすい場所，社会的交流の機会を提供する高齢者に優しいコミュニティは，高齢者が生活の質を維持し，家族や地域社会に貢献するのに役立ちます。

21.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

22.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)23.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹›SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 314, Ageing societies• ISO - Growing old gracefully witha new ISO technical committee forageing societies• ISO 25550:2022, Ageing societies – General requirements and guidelines for an ageinclusive workforce• ISO - Keeping up with ageing societies• ISO 25551:2021, Ageing societies – General requirements and guidelines for carerinclusive organizations• ISO - Enjoy retirement thanks to ISO 9001

• ISO 25552:2022, Ageing societies – Framework for dementia-inclusive communities• ISO - How to adapt to ageing societies• ISO/WD 25554, Ageing societies – Guidelines for promoting wellbeing in local communities
and organizations• ISO - The silver economy• ISO - New framework helps communities
adapt to ageing populations• ISO/AWI TR 25555, Ageing society – Accessibility and usability considerations for home-based
healthcare products, related services and environments• ISO - Active ageing݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• IWA 18:2016, Framework for integrated community-based life-long health and care services inaged societies‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 314, Ageing societies• ISO 25550:2022, Ageing societies – General requirements and guidelines for an ageinclusive workforce

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Growing old gracefully with a
new ISO technical committee forageing societies• ISO 25551:2021, Ageing societies – General requirements and guidelines for carerinclusive organizations• ISO - Keeping up with ageing societies• ISO/WD 25554, Ageing societies – Guidelines for promoting wellbeing in local communities
and organizations• ISO - The silver economy• ISO 25552:2022, Ageing societies – Framework for dementia-inclusive communities• ISO/AWI TR 25555, Ageing society – Accessibility and usability considerations for home-based
healthcare products, related services and environments݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• IWA 18:2016, Framework for integrated community-based life-long health and care services inaged societies‹›
Society• ISO - Enjoy retirement thanks to ISO 9001
• ISO - How to adapt to ageing societies• ISO - New framework helps communities
adapt to ageing populations• ISO - Active ageingYoung generation influences
While ageing populations will be an area of focus for many countries, the influences ofyounger generations will also create challenges and opportunities. Younger population groups
will have an influence on workforces, the economy and demand for products and services.
Young populations are of particular importance in sub-Saharan Africa, where half of thecitizens will still be under 21 years of age by 2035.24

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Spread of the Internet,
Sustainable production

Young people from all economic and cultural backgrounds are increasingly interacting in
online spaces. They are both influencing and being influenced by a global spectrum ofideas, trends, opinions, and advertising.25 These younger generations will pose challenges
to governments, in their increasing political engagement, and to businesses, as their overexposure to advertising leads to more sophisticated purchasing decisions. Many people see
younger generations as having strong opinions around climate change, political issues, andsocial injustices.26
The influence of educated and tech-savvy young people in the world of work will require
responsive talent management and creative thinking about staff development and career
opportunities.27 The employment opportunities of today’s youth have been affected bysuccessive financial crises.

24.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)25.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)26.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)27.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

若い世代の影響
人口の高齢化は多くの国にとって焦点となる分野ですが，若い世代の影響も課題と機会を生み出します。若い人口グループは，労働力，経済，製品やサービスの需要に影響を与えます。若年人口はサハ
ラ以南のアフリカで特に重要であり，2035 年までに市民の半数がまだ 21 歳未満であると予想されます。24
あらゆる経済的および文化的背景を持つ若者が，ますますオンライン空間で交流しています。それら
は，アイデア，トレンド，意見，および広告の世界的なスペクトルに影響を与え，影響を受けています。25
これらの若い世代は，政府の政治への関与が高まる中で，政府や企業に課題を突きつけるでしょう。
多くの人々は，若い世代が気候変動，政治問題，社会的不正について強い意見を持っていると考えています。26
仕事の世界における教育を受け，テクノロジーに精通した若者の影響力には，応答性の高い人材管理と，スタッフの育成とキャリアの機会に関する創造的な思考が必要になります。27 今日の若者の雇用機会は，相次ぐ金融危機の影響を受けています。

24.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)25.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)26.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)27.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド： 人工知能, インターネットの普及, 持続可能な生産

Some suggest that traditional education systems have insufficiently prepared young
people for increasingly technology-focused and/or knowledge-based work.28 Youngpeople may be negatively affected by changes in the employment market due to increasinguse of technology and changes in consumer habits, leading to challenges in building
economic capital.29

28.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)29.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

従来の教育制度では，ますますテクノロジーに重点を置いた，および/または知識ベースの仕事に若者が十分に備えることができなかったと示唆する人もいます。28 若者は，テクノロジーの使用の増加や消費者の習慣の変化による雇用市場の変化によって悪影響を受ける可能性があり，経済資本の構築に課題をもたらす可能性があります。29

28.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)29.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
SocietyConsumption
The experience economy | Sustainable production | Customized products
Consumer attitudes and preferences are constantly changing as a result of megatrends, suchas increasing ‘Connectivity’, ‘Environmental degradation’, demographic changes, shifting
inequalities, and more. The trends described below are some of the more long-term driving
forces that are affecting how companies think about value creation today – it is no longer justabout the final product, but about the inputs that went into it along the whole value chain,
how that product is produced, and how unique it is (tailored to a specific customer’s needs).
Indeed, it may no longer be about a product at all, as consumers move away from wanting‘things’ to wanting experiences that bring them personal growth and more than material
satisfaction. Given that consumer spending drives such a large part of the global economy,these consumption related trends have wide-ranging impacts and will affect many of theother trends featured in this report.

The experience economy

Related trends: Extended reality,
New business models, Rise of
the middle class, Services moving
online, Spread of the Internet,
Sustainable production

The growth of the experience economy reflects people’s increasing desire to ‘experience’
rather than ‘consume’; to ‘do’ rather than to ‘have’. It is about generating memorable events
that are personal and unique and have an important emotional impact. The experience
economy is especially evident in the travel and tourism sector, where “Travelers today are
increasingly drawn to travel as a form of self-actualization and personal transformationand growth. They want more than a simple visit to a new destination or days spent
relaxing on a beach. Instead, the travel they are seeking is an experience of the world that
goes deep − one that changes them in ways they may not even be aware of.”30
30.

Skift trends report. The rise of transformative travel (Skift, 2018)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

消費
経験経済 | 持続可能な生産 | カスタマイズされた製品

消費者の態度と嗜好は，「接続性」の増加，「環境悪化」，人口動態の変化，不平等の変化などのメガト
レンドの結果として，常に変化しています。以下に説明するトレンドは，企業が今日の価値創造についてどのように考えるかに影響を与えている，より長期的な原動力の一部です。それはもはや最終製品
だけではなく，バリューチェーン全体に沿ってそれに投入されたインプットについてです。その製品が生産され，それがどれほどユニークであるか (特定の顧客のニーズに合わせて調整されているか)。実際，消費者が「物」を求めることから，個人的な成長や物質的な満足以上のものをもたらす体験を求めるようになるにつれて，それはもはや製品に関するものではないかもしれません。消費者支出が世界経済の大部分を牽引していることを考えると，これらの消費関連のトレンドは広範囲に影響を及ぼし，
このレポートで取り上げる他の多くのトレンドに影響を与えるでしょう。

経験経済
経験経済の成長は，「消費」よりも「体験」に対する人々の欲求の高まりを反映しています。 「持つ」より「する」。それは，個人的でユニークで，重要な感情的な影響を与える記憶に残るイベントを生み出すことです。経験経済は，旅行と観光の分野で特に顕著です。『今日の旅行者は，自己実現と個人の変容と成長の一形態として，ますます旅行に引き寄せられています。旅行者は，新しい目的地への単純な訪問や，ビーチでリラックスした日々以上のものを望んでいます。代わりに，旅行者が求めている旅行
は，深い世界の経験であり，自分が気づいていないかもしれない方法で自分を変えるものです。』 30
30.

Skift trends report. The rise of transformative travel (Skift, 2018)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：拡張現実, 新しいビジネスモデル, 中産階級の台頭,
サービスのオンライン化, インターネットの普及, 持続可能な生産

There are several possible explanations for the growth ofthe experience economy. Some see it as a reaction to the increasingly
digital nature of our lives – in a world where we are always connected
and spend so much time interacting in cyberspace, the marginalvalue of the physical world increases. We may no longer need to
go to a physical shop, office, or restaurant but we choose to doso because of the value of experiencing social interactions anddifferent environments. In the same way, we seek out more in-person
experiences and greater cultural participation, rather than simply theacquisition of more ‘stuff’.31

Yet another perspective is that the experience economy is, inpart, a reaction to increasing societal concern about sustainabilityand ‘Environmental degradation’ (see ‘Sustainable production’).
People looking to consume less are driving the growth of the
sharing economy, and the rise of rent and subscription models forthings (from furniture to cars and even clothes) and services (fromtransport to accommodation).33 These models allow consumers toexperience/use products without owning them, and to enjoy moreinteractive services usually linked to an idea of greater authenticity
and responsibility.

Others understand the experience economy trend as a natural
progression in attitudes to consumption for the growing middle
classes who may have reached ‘peak stuff’. As wealth increases,
there comes a point where material status symbols become lessattractive compared to services and experiences that can lead to‘self-actualization’ by helping people achieve their aspirations.32
Some people even speak of a ‘transformation economy’ emerging,where experiences are no longer about enjoyment, but about
personal transformation. Increasingly, these experiences are
facilitated by new technologies (e.g. 4D cinema, virtual reality),
especially since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, what this means is an important shift in economic
value-generation, from products to services, and an imperative
for producers/retailers to rethink how they provide customer
experiences and create a service culture. This includes using newtechnologies (albeit with the caveat that technological developments
must support the provision of personalized service and people’s
desire for emotion and intimacy, not replace them).

31.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)32.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)33.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

経験経済の成長については，いくつかの可能な説明があります。これは，ますますデジタル化が進む私たちの生活の性質に対する反動だと考える

さらに別の見方は，経験経済は，部分的には，持続可能性と「環境悪化」

人もいます。私たちが常にインターネットに接続され，サイバー空間でのやり取りに多くの時間を費やす世界では，物理的な世界の限界価値が増加します。実店舗，オフィス，またはレストランに行く必要がなくなったかもしれま
せんが，社会的相互作用やさまざまな環境を体験する価値があるため，そあるというものです。消費を抑えようとする人々が，シェアリング エコノミー(「持続可能な生産」を参照)に関する社会的関心の高まりに対する反応での成長を促進し，モノ (家具から車，さらには衣服まで) やサービス (交通機関から宿泊施設まで) のレンタル モデルやサブスクリプション モデルが台頭しています。33 これらのモデルにより，消費者は製品を所有せずに製うするのです。同じように，私たちは単により多くの「もの」を獲得するのではなく，より多くの直接的な経験とより多くの文化的参加を求めています。31

品を体験/使用し，通常はより信頼性と責任のアイデアに関連している，よまた，経験経済のトレンドは，成長する中産階級の消費に対する態度が自然に変化し，「最高のもの」に達した可能性があると理解している人もいます。富が増加するにつれて，人々が願望を達成するのを助けることによっ全体として，これが意味することは，製品からサービスへの経済的価値のて「自己実現」につながるサービスや経験と比較して，物質的なステータス
シンボルが魅力的でなくなるポイントが来ます。32 一部の人々は，経験がもはや楽しみではなく個人の変革に関するものである「変革経済」の出現についてさえ話します。特に COVID-19 のパンデミック以降，これらの体験は新しいテクノロジーの使用が含まれます（ただし，テクノロジーの開発は，

りインタラクティブなサービスを楽しむことができます。

生成における重要な変化であり，生産者/小売業者が顧客体験を提供する方法を再考し，サービス文化を創造することが不可欠です。これには，
パーソナライズされたサービスの提供と，感情と親密さに対する人々の欲求をサポートする必要があり，それらに取って代わるものではないという警告があります）。

新しいテクノロジー (4D シネマ，バーチャル リアリティなど) によってますま
す促進されています。

31.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)32.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)33.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹›SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 228, Tourism and related services• ISO - Excellence in customer service• ISO/DIS 3163, Adventure tourism – Terminology• ISO - Pushing the tourism limits

݁ ISO/TC 312, Excellence in service• ISO/TS 24082:2021, Service excellence – Designing excellent service to achieve outstanding
customer experiences‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 228, Tourism and related services• ISO/DIS 3163, Adventure tourism – Terminology݁◌ ISO/TC 312, Excellence in service• ISO/TS 24082:2021, Service excellence – Designing excellent service to achieve outstanding
customer experiences‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Excellence in customer service• ISO - Pushing the tourism limits

Sustainable production

Related trends: Additive
manufacturing, Natural
resource scarcity,
New business models,
New generation plastics,
Threatened ecosystems

Consumers are becoming more environmentally aware and more empowered. Studies
show that around 65% of consumers are willing to pay more for products/services
that are environmentally friendly and socially responsible, and they also increasingly
expect companies to pay attention to the environment and be transparent about their
behaviours.34 This sentiment is especially strong amongst the younger generations and ispredicted to grow.
At the same time, governments are putting pressure on industry through environmental
regulations, as they reflect the growing environmental concerns of their electorates
and put in place policies to help them achieve their commitments to the UN Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs).
As a result, ‘going green’ has become an important business strategy and increasingly,
companies are redesigning their business models to be more environmentally friendly andsustainable. This includes adopting life cycle models such as cradle-to-cradle (circular
economy), sharing economy or peer-to-peer economic models (see ‘New businessmodels’), reducing emissions and creating shorter supply chains.35,36 And it is not just about
reputation and marketing – companies also adopt sustainable business models to foster
innovation, improve operational efficiency, and lower costs.
While this trend of increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable products has
been evident (and growing) for many years now, a more recent countertrend of climate
34.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)35.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)36.

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

持続可能な生産
消費者は，環境への意識が高まり，力を得ています。調査によると，消費者の約 65% は，環境にやさしく社会的責任のある製品やサービスに対して，より多くのお金を払う意思があり，企業が環境に注意を払い，行動について透明性を保つことをますます期待しています。34 このトレンドは特に若い世代に強く，今後も増加すると予測されています。
同時に，政府は有権者の環境への関心の高まりを反映して，環境規制を通じて業界に圧力をかけ，国連の持続可能な開発目標 (SDG) へのコミットメントを達成するのに役立つ政策を導入します。
その結果，「環境に配慮する」ことが重要なビジネス戦略になり，企業はますます環境にやさし
く持続可能になるようにビジネスモデルを再設計しています。これには，ゆりかごからゆりかご(循環型経済)，シェアリング エコノミー，ピア ツー ピア経済モデル (「新しいビジネス モデル」を参照) などのライフ サイクル モデルの採用，排出量の削減，およびより短いサプライ チェーンの作成が含まれます。35,36 また，評判やマーケティングだけではなく，企業は持続可能なビジネス モデルを採用して，イノベーションを促進し，運用効率を改善し，コストを削減しています。
環境にやさしく持続可能な製品に対する需要の増加トレンドは，何年にもわたって明らかであり（そして成長しています），最近では，気候に対する懐疑論や，環境保護主義への疲労や飽き

34.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)35.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)36.

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹›Society

関連するトレンド： アディティブ
マニュファクチャリング, 天然資
源の不足, 新しいビジネスモデ
ル, 新世代のプラスチック, 脅
かされている生態系scepticism and fatigue/jadedness with environmentalism is now becoming evident. Older
generations, in particular, do not trust what scientists say on environmental issues (53% of
60-74-year-olds compared to 39% of 16-24-year-olds). Climate-denying attitudes appear
linked to the rise of populism in many societies.37

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 34, Food products• ISO - Responsible Consumption and Production• ISO 34101-3:2019, Sustainable and traceable cocoa – Part 3: Requirements for traceability• ISO - Food for the future݁ ISO/TC 189, Ceramic tile

• ISO - Paving the way to a more sustainable world• ISO 17889-1:2021, Ceramic tiling systems – Sustainability for ceramic tiles and installationmaterials – Part 1: Specification for ceramic tiles• ISO - Food, Feed, Fibre• ISO - Raising the bar on sustainable consumption• ISO/DIS 17889-2, Ceramic tiling systems – Sustainability for ceramic tiles and installationmaterials – Part 2: Specification for tile installation materials

݁ ISO/TC 207/SC 3, Environmental labelling• ISO 14020:2000, Environmental labels and declarations – General principles

݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board – groups• ISO/TMBG/SAG_ESG, Strategic Advisory Group on Environmental, Social, Governance(ESG) Ecosystem• ISO 20400:2017, Sustainable procurement

37.

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

などの反対トレンドが明らかになりつつあります。特に年配の世代は，環境問題に関する科学者の発言を信用していません (16 ～ 24 歳の 39% と比較して，60 ～ 74 歳の 53% )。気候変動を否定する態度は，多くの社会におけるポピュリズムの台頭と関連しているようです。37

関連するISO専門委員会および規格• ISO - Responsible Consumption and Production݁◌ ISO/TC 189, Ceramic tile

• ISO - Paving the way to a more sustainable world• ISO 34101-3:2019, Sustainable and traceable cocoa – Part 3: Requirements for traceability• ISO 17889-1:2021, Ceramic tiling systems – Sustainability for ceramic tiles and installationmaterials – Part 1: Specification for ceramic tiles• ISO/DIS 17889-2, Ceramic tiling systems – Sustainability for ceramic tiles and installationmaterials – Part 2: Specification for tile installation materials݁◌ ISO/TC 207/SC 3, Environmental labelling• ISO 14020:2000, Environmental labels and declarations – General principles݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board – groups• ISO/TMBG/SAG_ESG, Strategic Advisory Group on Environmental, Social, Governance(ESG) Ecosystem• ISO 20400:2017, Sustainable procurement37.

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 34, Food products

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹›Society• ISO - Food for the future• ISO - Food, Feed, Fibre• ISO - Raising the bar on sustainable consumption

Customized products
Personalization of the customer experience has been a growing trend for some years
now. One clear example of this is in the digital world, where, for example, services offeredby Google, Facebook, YouTube, Apple, etc. curate searches, news feeds, products,
advertisements and more based on a user’s personal history of searches, purchases, andonline interactions.38 Digital platforms and the increased connectivity of customers alsooffer customization of physical goods – through digital platforms, customers have products
and services available at their fingertips and the digital medium allows them to specify
instantly and conveniently what they want, providing feedback to companies on what
to produce.
Technological advances in ‘Additive manufacturing’ (3D printing), machine learning and the‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) will likely accelerate this trend, reducing the cost to businesses ofcustomizing their products and services. This affects business models (most companies
already view customization as a strategic priority and may move away from mass
manufacturing models)39 and could also affect global value chains (which need to become
shorter and more flexible, leading to changes in the nature of goods being shipped and themove of production closer to markets).40

Related trends: Additive
manufacturing, Artificial intelligence,
Changing trade patterns, Data
privacy, Rise of the middle class,
Robotics, Spread of the Internet

While some industry surveys show that demand for customization and personalization ishigh, for example, 67% of respondents in a survey run by Adobe said customized content

38.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)39.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

40.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

カスタマイズされた製品
カスタマー エクスペリエンスのパーソナライゼーションは，ここ数年増加トレンドにあります。この明確な例の 1 つはデジタルの世界です。たとえば，Google，Facebook，YouTube，Apple などによって提供されるサービスは，ユーザーの個人的な検索履歴，購入履歴およびオンライン インタラクションに基づいて，検索，ニュース フィード，製品，広告などをキュレートします。38 デジタル プラットフォームと顧客の接続性の向上は，物理的な商品のカスタマイズも提供します。デジタル プラットフォー
ムを通じて，顧客は製品やサービスをすぐに利用でき，デジタル メディアを使用すると，欲しいものを即座に便利に指定でき，何を生産するべきかについて企業にフィードバックを提供できます。
「アディティブ マニュファクチャリング」(3D プリンティング)，機械学習，「モノのインターネット」(IoT)の技術的進歩により，このトレンドが加速し，製品やサービスをカスタマイズする企業のコストが削減される可能性があります。これはビジネスモデルに影響を与え（ほとんどの企業はすでにカスタマイズを戦略的優先事項と見なしており，大量生産モデルから離れる可能性があります）39，グローバ
ルバリューチェーンにも影響を与える可能性があります（より短く柔軟にする必要があり，出荷される商品の性質の変化および生産の市場の近くへの移動につながります）。40
一部の業界調査では，カスタマイズとパーソナライゼーションの需要が高いことが示されていますが，たとえばAdobeが実施した調査では，回答者の 67% がカスタマイズされたコンテンツが重要で

38.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)39.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

40.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：アディティブ マニュファクチャリング, 人工知能, 貿易形態の変化, データ保護, 中産階級の台頭,
ロボティクス, インターネットの普及was important and 42% said impersonalized content annoys them41, there are also significant
concerns about ‘Data privacy’ and security (commercial use of personal data). The
respondents had other concerns, notably an individual lack of agency (people feeling theirexperiences are determined for them without their knowledge) and the creation of group andindividual ‘echo chambers’, i.e. recommendation systems only showing people content that
confirms their existing beliefs/preferences, possibly leading to increasingly radicalized content,
spreading of misinformation, and conspiracy theories.42 The continued trajectory of this trend
will depend partly on the ability of companies to maintain consumer agency and trust.

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 133, Clothing sizing systems – size designation, size measurement methods
and digital fittings• ISO - Paving the way to amore sustainable world• ISO/DTS 3736-2, Digital fitting – Service procedure – Part 2: Customized clothing online and offline݁ ISO/TC 261, Additive manufacturing• ISO/ASTM 52900:2021, Additive manufacturing – General principles – Fundamentals
and vocabulary• ISO/ASTM 52910:2018, Additive manufacturing – Design – Requirements, guidelines
and recommendations

41.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)42.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

持続可能な生産あると述べ，42% が個人化されていないコンテンツには悩まされていると述べています。41データ保護およびセキュリティ (個人データの商用利用)にも重大な懸念があります。回答者は他の懸念を持っていました。特に，個人のエージェンシーの欠如 (知らないうちに自分の経験が自分のために決定されていると感じている人々) と，グループおよび個人の「エコー チェンバー」の作成，つまり，既存の信念/嗜好を確認するコンテンツのみを表示するレコメンデーション システム，ますます過激化したコンテンツ，誤った情報の拡散，陰謀の企てにつながる可能性があります。42 このトレンドが今後も続くかどうかは，企業が消費者のエージェンシーと信頼を維持できるかどうかにかかっています。

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 133, Clothing sizing systems – size designation, size measurement methods
and digital fittings• ISO/DTS 3736-2, Digital fitting – Service procedure – Part 2: Customized clothing online and offline݁◌ ISO/TC 261, Additive manufacturing• ISO/ASTM 52900:2021, Additive manufacturing – General principles – Fundamentals
and vocabulary• ISO/ASTM 52910:2018, Additive manufacturing – Design – Requirements, guidelines
and recommendations

41.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)42.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Paving the way to amore sustainable world

Movement of people
Urbanization | Increasing migration
Whether within or between countries, by choice or by force, these trends demonstrate thatpeople are definitely on the move. As the global population grows, so do rates of urbanizationand migration, with potentially significant social, political, and environmental implications(see ‘Age groups’).
There is a multitude of factors pushing people to move, including economic development,
conflict, political instability and, increasingly, the impacts of climate change. More people live
outside their country of birth than ever before and many of them end up in cities, which are
growing in number, in size and in importance. Indeed, the power of cities as economic andsocial centres could potentially see them overtake countries as the dominant political entities
in future (see ‘Changing trade pattern’). If managed well, urban centres will foster social andeconomic development and more sustainable living. But in places where the pace of growth
outstrips the resources to support it, this trend could compound social inequalities and lead togreater conflict.

Urbanization

Related trends: Ageing
population, Autonomous vehicles,
Increased migration, Internetof Things, Multipolarity, Rise of
the middle class, Smart cities,
Threatened ecosystems

Increasingly, people are moving from rural areas to cities, resulting in significant growth inurban populations. People are seeking the economic opportunities and increased quality of lifethat living in cities can offer. It is expected that 70% of the world’s population will live in cities
by 2045.43

43.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

移民
都市化 | 移民の増加
これらのトレンドは，国内であろうと国家間であろうと，あるいは選択または強制によって，人々が確実に移動していることを示しています。世界人口が増加するにつれて，都市化と移民の割合も増加し，潜在的に重大な社会的，政治的，および環境的影響を及ぼします（「年齢層」を参照）。
経済発展，紛争，政情不安，そしてますます増加する気候変動の影響など，移民を後押しする要因は数多くあります。かつてないほど多くの人々が生まれた国の外に住んでおり，その多くが都市に行き着
き，その数，規模，重要性が増しています。実際，経済的および社会的中心地としての都市の力は，将来，主要な政治的実体としての国々を追い越す可能性があります (「貿易形態の変化」を参照)。うまく管理されれば，都心部は社会的および経済的発展とより持続可能な生活を促進します。しかし，成長のペースがそれを支えるリソースを上回っている場所では，このトレンドが社会的不平等を悪化させ，より大きな紛争につながる可能性があります。

都市化
ますます人々は農村地域から都市に移動しており，その結果，都市人口が大幅に増加しています。
人々は，都市に住むことで得られる経済的機会と生活の質の向上を求めています。 2045 年までに，世界人口の 70% が都市に住むようになると予想されています。4343.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：人口の高齢化, 自動運転車, 移民の増加, モノのインタ
ーネット, 多極性, 中産階級の台頭,
スマートシティ, 脅かされている生態系

For individuals, urban life can offer many opportunities: improved
access to services like education and healthcare, daily conveniences
offered by urban infrastructure and access to broader job
markets. The benefits for society as a whole are significant: cities
are associated with economic growth44, wealth generation andinnovation.45 Cities are extremely productive and contribute morethan 80% of global gross domestic product (GDP).46
For cities, increased population inflows can create strain on
resources and challenges for city planners and resource managers.47

Particularly in the developing world, where urban planning has not
anticipated substantial growth and resources are already stretched,increasing urbanization may create problems as well as opportunities
in the coming decades. Historically, unplanned, or informal urban
settlements have exacerbated inequalities49, and in many countries,
service provision in these areas is not keeping pace with urban
population growth.50 Rapid urbanization could lead to conflict inplaces where resources are insufficient and/or poorly managed51,
but where it is well-managed it may yield significant benefits tourbanizing populations.52

Urbanization can be seen as a double-edged sword – it offers thepossibility of increased social and economic development alongside
the risk of compounding social inequity.48

44.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

45.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)46.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s world (Deloitte, 2017)47.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)48.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)49.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)50.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

51.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)52.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

個人にとって，都市生活は多くの機会を提供します。教育や医療などのサービスへのアクセスの改善，都市インフラが提供する日常の便利さ，より広い雇用市場へのアクセスなどです。社会全体にとっての恩恵は非常に大きく，都市は経済成長44，富の創出，イノベーションに関連しています。45 都市
は非常に生産性が高く，世界の国内総生産 (GDP) の 80% 以上を占めています。46都市の場合，人口流入の増加は資源に負担をかけ，都市計画者や資源管理者にとって課題となる可能性があります。47

特に，都市計画が実質的な成長を予測しておらず，資源がすでに不足している発展途上国では，都市化の進行が今後数十年間に問題と機会を生み出す可能性があります。歴史的に，無計画または非公式の都市居住は不平等を悪化させており49，多くの国では，これらの地域でのサービス提供が都市人口の増加に追いついていません。50 急速な都市化は，資源が不十分な場
所や管理が不十分な場所で紛争を引き起こす可能性がありますが51，適切に管理されている場所では，都市化する人口に大きな利益をもたらす可能性があります。52

都市化は両刃の剣と見なすことができます。都市化は，社会的不平等を悪化させるリスクとともに，社会的および経済的発展の可能性をもたらしま
す。48

44.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

45.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)46.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s world (Deloitte, 2017)47.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)48.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)49.

African futures. Key trends to 2035 (Institute for Security Studies, 2017)50.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

51.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)52.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹›
Society

Multiple city ‘types’ are expected to increase in number in the coming
decades. Much of the attention around urbanization is focused on
so-called ‘mega-cities’, usually defined as having populations of atleast 10 million.53,54,55 While the number of mega-cities is expected to
grow somewhat, the bulk of the growth in cities will occur in ‘small’(under 1 million inhabitants), ‘medium’ sized (1-5 million inhabitants)56
and ‘large’ (5-10 million inhabitants) cities.57 The World Bank58 offers
a classification of large cities:•••

Global hubs: Cities that wealth and talent flow though.
Examples include Singapore, London, and New York.
Mega-cities: Cities with large populations that are ‘population
magnets’ for their respective regions. Examples include
Mumbai, Sao Paolo, Jakarta.
Gateway cities: Cities that function as part of regional clusters
that facilitate access to specific markets. Examples include Dubai,
Almaty, Johannesburg.

Thinking of these functions of cities raises interesting questions forcity planners and for the role of cities in global trade, both physicaland digital. According to the European Strategy and Policy Analysis
System59, “When we say 2030 will be urban, this is not merely
an expression of residency, it will be the way of life of society as
a whole.”Perhaps paradoxically, cities can provide opportunities for increased
sustainability and reduction of environmental impacts. While cities
are expected to be responsible for 70% of global greenhouse gas
emissions, they are also places where proactive and innovativeenvironmental management and urban planning can yield substantial
benefits. Higher density living allows for more coordination of waste
management, innovative energy management, reduced relianceon cars for transport and efficient distribution of food and otherresources. Public transit and sustainable transport options are aparticular area of opportunity in terms of acting on the opportunities
offered by increased urbanization.60

53.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)54.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)55.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

56.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)57.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)58.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)59.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)60.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

複数の都市の「タイプ」は，今後数十年で増加すると予想されます。都市化に関する注目の多くは，通常，少なくとも 1,000 万人の人口を持つと定義される，いわゆる「メガシティ」に集中しています。53,54,55 メガシティの数はいく
らか増加すると予想されますが，大都市の成長の大部分は，「小」規模 (人口 100 万人未満)，「中」規模 (100 万人から 500 万人)56，および「大」規模(5 -1,000 万人の住民) 都市57。世界銀行 58 は大都市の分類を提供しています：•グローバルハブ： 富と才能が流れる都市。例としては，シンガポール，ロンドン，ニューヨークなどがあります。

•

メガシティ： それぞれの地域の「人口マグネット」である人口が多い都•

ゲートウェイシティ： 特定の市場へのアクセスを促進し，地域クラスター

市。例としては，ムンバイ，サンパウロ，ジャカルタなどがあります。
の一部として機能する都市。例としては，ドバイ，アルマトイ，ヨハネスブ

都市のこれらの機能を考えると，都市計画者や，物理的およびデジタルの両方の世界貿易における都市の役割について興味深い疑問が生じます。
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System 59 によると，「2030 年が都市になると言うとき，これは単なる居住の表現ではなく，社会全体の生き方になるでしょう。」
逆説的かもしれませんが，都市は持続可能性を高め，環境への影響を軽減する機会を提供できます。都市は，世界の温室効果ガス排出量の 70%を占めると予想されていますが，積極的かつ革新的な環境管理と都市計画が大きな利益をもたらす場所でもあります。より高密度の生活は，廃棄物管理，革新的なエネルギー管理，輸送のための自動車への依存の減少，食料やその他の資源の効率的な分配のより多くの調整を可能にします。公共交通機関と持続可能な交通手段の選択肢は，都市化の進展によってもたらされる機会に対応するという点で，機会のある特定の分野です。60

ルグなどがあります。

53.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)54.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)55.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

56.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)57.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)58.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)59.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)60.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
Society

Politically, urbanization can increase the power of local governments, leading to more
localized decision-making and, perhaps, more empowerment of citizens.61 Cities have been
described as ‘virtual islands’; places where resource allocation and generation/distributionof power can be managed within a relatively closed system to the benefit of all.62 The InterAmerican Development Bank and the Inter-American Dialogue63 suggest we can lookforward to a positive future in cities. Successful urban areas will be the ones that: improve
services; enhance national and international connectivity (the Internet); ensure water andelectricity supplies; raise levels of education and healthcare; anticipate adaptation to climatechange plans and measures; consider greening cities; provide talent pools of technicalspecialists and other experts; secure efficient and reliable financial systems; cultivate culturalactivity, and; provide citizens with two important benefits, i.e. an improved quality of life andincreased productivity.

61.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)62.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

63.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

政治的には，都市化は地方政府の力を増大させ，より局地的な意思決定につながり，おそらく市民のエンパワーメントを促進する可能性があります。61 都市は「仮想島」と表現されてきました；すべての人の利益のために，比較的閉鎖的なシステム内で資源の割り当てと発電/配電を管理できる場所です。62 The Inter-American Development Bank と the Inter-American Dialogue 63 は，都市の前
向きな未来を期待できることを示唆しています。成功する都市部とは，次のようなものです。サービスを向上させ；国内および国際的な接続性 (インターネット) を強化し；水と電気の供給を確保する。教
育と医療のレベルを上げ；気候変動の計画と対策への適応を予測し；都市の緑化を検討し；技術専
門家やその他の専門家の人材プールを提供し；効率的で信頼できる金融システムを確保し；文化活動を育成し；生活の質の向上と生産性の向上という 2 つの重要な恩恵を市民に提供します。

61.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)62.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

63.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹›
SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO - Sustainable Cities and Communities• ISO 37105:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Descriptive framework for cities
and communities• ISO - How do we build sustainable cities ofthe future• ISO 37106:2021, Sustainable cities and communities – Guidance on establishing smart city
operating models for sustainable communities• ISO - The future looks smart• ISO - New ISO standard for urban resilience• ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for city services and quality of life

• ISO - Writing the future on World Cities Day

݁ ISO/TC 282/SC 2, Water reuse in urban areas• ISO - Stronger cities for the future: a new setof International Standards just out• ISO 20760-1:2018, Water reuse in urban areas – Guidelines for centralized water reuse system –Part 1: Design principle of a centralized water reuse system• ISO - Solutions for today’s urban challenges
in the latest ISOfocus• ISO 23070:2020, Water reuse in urban areas – Guidelines for reclaimed water treatment: Designprinciples of a RO treatment system of municipal wastewater݁ ISO/TC 297, Waste collection and transportation management• ISO/DIS 24161, Waste collection and transportation management – Vocabulary• ISO 24162:2022, Test method for energy consumption of refuse collection vehicles‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO 37105:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Descriptive framework for cities
and communities• ISO 37106:2021, Sustainable cities and communities – Guidance on establishing smart city
operating models for sustainable communities• ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for city services and quality of life݁◌ ISO/TC 282/SC 2, Water reuse in urban areas• ISO 20760-1:2018, Water reuse in urban areas – Guidelines for centralized water reuse system –Part 1: Design principle of a centralized water reuse system• ISO 23070:2020, Water reuse in urban areas – Guidelines for reclaimed water treatment: Designprinciples of a RO treatment system of municipal wastewater݁◌ ISO/TC 297, Waste collection and transportation management• ISO/DIS 24161, Waste collection and transportation management – Vocabulary• ISO 24162:2022, Test method for energy consumption of refuse collection vehicles‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Sustainable Cities and Communities• ISO - How do we build sustainable cities ofthe future• ISO - The future looks smart• ISO - New ISO standard for urban resilience• ISO - Writing the future on World Cities Day• ISO - Stronger cities for the future: a new setof International Standards just out• ISO - Solutions for today’s urban
challenges in the latest ISOfocus

Increasing migration

Related trends: Ageing
population, Natural
resource scarcity,
Rise of the middle
class, Threatened
ecosystems, Urbanization

Internationally, people are on the move. Reduced costs of transportation, climate change
and economic opportunities are all expected to drive increasing international migration in the
coming decades.64,65,66,67
While opportunistic migration has been common for some time, the effects of climate change
are expected to prompt significant numbers of people to migrate internationally in the coming
decades. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that“the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration.” 68 The numberof people displaced by conflict and political instability is also expected to increase.69 Morerefugees moving along new and existing migration routes will have implications for public
policy and international governance.
Economic development in the global south may also contribute to higher levels of internationalmigration. While many assume that economic development will reduce the number of people
emigrating in search of economic opportunities, in fact it is observed that economic growthleads to an initial increase in emigration, presumably as citizens are better educated and havemore access to connectivity, transport and international job opportunities. Emigration tends to64.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

65.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)66.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)67.

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)

68.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)69.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

移民の増加
国際的に，人々は動いています。輸送コストの削減，気候変動，経済的機会のすべてが，今後数十年で国際移民の増加を後押しすると予想されます。64,65,66,67
日和見的な移民はしばらくの間一般的でしたが，気候変動の影響により，今後数十年でかなりの数の人々が国際的に移民になると予想されます。実際，気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) は，「気候変動の最大で唯一の影響は人間の移動にある可能性がある」と指摘しています。68 紛争や政情不安によって家を追われた人々の数も増加すると予想されます。69 新規および既存の移動ルートに沿って移動するより多くの難民が，公共政策と国際ガバナンスに影響を与えるでしょう。
グローバル サウスにおける経済発展もまた，より高いレベルの国際移民に貢献する可能性があります。経済発展により，経済的機会を求めて移民になる人々の数が減少すると多くの人が想定していますが，実際には，おそらく市民の教育水準が向上し，接続性，交通機関，交通機関，および国際的な仕事の機会へのアクセスが向上するため，経済成長が移民の初期増加につながることが観察されていま

64.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

65.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)66.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)67.

Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)

68.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)69.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：人口の高齢化, 天然資源の不足, 中産階級の台頭, 脅かされる生態系, 都市化

reduce when a country is sufficiently developed that there are good opportunities for workers‘at home’.70
For developed markets receiving migrants, this means access to an increased working-age
population to support ageing societies.71 In many developed countries, migrants also help toslow the decline in population growth associated with lower fertility rates.72
Companies can expect to have an increasingly mobile and diverse workforce available to them,while countries hosting migrants can enjoy the cultural benefits of diversity along with theeconomic benefits of an enlarged workforce.

70.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)71.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)72.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

す。国が十分に発展し，「国内」労働者に良い機会がある場合，移民は減少するトレンドがあります。70
移民を受け入れている先進国市場にとって，これは高齢化社会を支えるための労働年齢人口の増加へのアクセスを意味します。71 多くの先進国では，移民は出生率の低下に伴う人口増加の減速にも貢献しています。72
企業はますます流動的で多様な労働力を利用できるようになると期待できますが，移民を受け入れている国は，労働力の拡大による経済的利益とともに，多様性による文化的利益を享受できます。

70.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)71.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)72.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)‹›
SocietyProsperity
Diversifying inequalities | Rise of the middle class | Stagnating happiness levels

The world is undoubtedly more prosperous today than it has ever been before. But the waythat prosperity is shared across the globe is still far from equal and the trends that affectprosperity are far from simple. This is especially true if you consider the meaning of ‘prosperity’
to go beyond money, and include things like wellbeing and equality. Economic growth,demographic change and technological advances are just some of the complex forces driving
these trends in prosperity.

Diversifying inequalities
Inequality is growing. While economic (income) inequality is often the focus of discussion,
it is linked to many other types of inequality that are also on the rise, including gender,intergenerational, digital and racial/ethnic inequality.73 This trend of ‘diversifying inequalities’
also has strong links to many other trends.

Related trends: Changing tradepatterns, Effects of automation,
Reinventing the workplace,
Stagnating happinesslevels, Urbanization

Although economic inequality between countries has reduced over the last 30 years (largely
due to rapid economic growth in Asia), inequality within many countries has increased and ispredicted to rise steeply in coming decades, if current trends continue.74

73.

The global risks report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

74.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

繁栄
不平等の多様化 | 中産階級の台頭 | 幸福度の停滞

今日の世界は間違いなく，かつてないほど繁栄しています。しかし，繁栄の世界中での共有され方は依然として平等ではなく，繁栄に影響を与えるトレンドは単純ではありません。これは，「繁栄」の意味がお金を超えて，幸福や平等などを含むと考える場合に特に当てはまります。経済成長，
人口動態の変化，技術の進歩は，これらの繁栄のトレンドを推進する複雑な力のほんの一部です。

不平等の多様化
不平等が拡大しています。経済的（所得）不平等はしばしば議論の焦点となりますが，ジェンダー，世代間，デジタル，人種/民族の不平等など，同様に増加している他の多くのタイプの不平等にも関連しています。73 この「不平等の多様化」というトレンドは，他の多くのトレンドとも強く関連しています。
国家間の経済的不平等は，(主にアジアの急速な経済成長により)，過去 30 年間で縮小しましたが，多くの国で不平等が拡大しており，現在のトレンドが続けば，今後数十年で急激に拡大すると予測されています。74

73.

The global risks report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

74.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：貿易形態の変化, 自動化の効果, 職場の再発明,
幸福度の停滞, 都市化

A number of interlinked factors will contribute to this rise, such as:
•

•

•

•

75.

slower and more volatile economic growth (compounded byhigh government debt, swings in financial and commodity
markets and the threat of an uneven economic rebound after
the COVID-19 crisis);
potential job losses due to automation and shifts in the job
market toward lower paid or more precarious employment(more freelancers, sharing economy, temporary workers anddeclining labour market protections);
the impact of the technology sector exacerbating wealthconcentration amongst those with the right skills and capitalownership (1% of the world’s population may own two-thirds ofglobal wealth by 2030, entrenching power in the hands of elites
who will be less likely to implement economic reforms that will
benefit the poor)75; andpopulation growth and mobility, particularly in developing
countries (economic opportunities will be greater in urban areas,
creating potential for growing urban slums and increasing urban/
rural inequalities).

Not only is inequality growing, but awareness of it is growing, as
increasing numbers of people gain access to the Internet andsocial media.
This growing inequality, together with heightened awareness,
could lead to social fragmentation fuelled by perceived injustices.
Discontent spurs protests and violent mobilization, increasing
support for populist or nationalist leaders. It additionally leads
to decreasing support for globalization and trade liberalization,
which are seen as having created this situation of inequality. Crime
increases in turn, as does the potential for religious radicalization.76,77

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)76.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)77.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹
Foreword›
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Environment

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Where to from here?

この増加には，次のような多くの相互に関連する要因が寄与します：•••

経済成長の鈍化と不安定化（政府の多額の債務，金融およびコモデ
ィティ市場の変動，COVID-19 危機後の不均一な経済回復の脅威が不平等が拡大しているだけでなく，インターネットやソーシャル メディアにアクセスする人が増えるにつれて，不平等への意識も高まっています。
この不平等の拡大は，意識の高まりとともに，認識された不正によって煽相まって）。

られた社会的断片化につながる可能性があります。不満は抗議行動や暴自動化と雇用市場の低賃金またはより不安定な雇用への移行（フリー

力的な動員に拍車をかけ，ポピュリストやナショナリストの指導者への支持

ランサーの増加，シェアリングエコノミー，臨時労働者，労働市場の保を増やします。さらに，グローバル化と貿易自由化への支持の減少につな

護の低下）による失業の可能性。

がり，これらはこの不平等の状況を生み出したと見られています。その結適切なスキルと資本所有権を持つ人々への富の集中を悪化させるテ

果，犯罪が増加し，宗教の過激化の可能性も高まります。76,77

クノロジー部門の影響 (世界人口の 1% が 2030 年までに世界の富の3 分の 2 を所有する可能性があり，貧困層に利益をもたらす経済改革を実施しそうもないエリートの手に権力が定着する可能性がありま
す。）75

•

特に発展途上国における人口増加と流動性（都市部では経済的機会が大きくなり，都市スラムが拡大し，都市と地方の不平等が拡大する
可能性が生じる）。

75.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)76.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)77.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹›
SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/PC 337, Guidelines for the promotion and implementationof gender equality• ISO - Gender Equality• ISO - Reduced Inequalities• ISO/AWI 53800, Guidelines for the promotion and implementationof gender equality• ISO - ISO raises the standard on gender equality• ISO - ISO standards can help tackle global
inequality, says UN Women expert

݁ ISO/TMB, Technical Management Board• IWA 34:2021, Women’s entrepreneurship – Key definitions and general criteria‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/PC 337, Guidelines for the promotion and implementationof gender equality• ISO/AWI 53800, Guidelines for the promotion and implementationof gender equality݁◌ ISO/TMB, Technical Management Board• IWA 34:2021, Women’s entrepreneurship – Key definitions and general criteria‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Gender Equality• ISO - Reduced Inequalities• ISO - ISO raises the standard on gender equality• ISO - ISO standards can help tackle
global inequality, says UN Women expert

Rise of the middle class
The trend towards poverty reduction around the world has been ongoing for decades,in Europe for at least 50 years, and more recently in Asia and Latin America. In particular,
extreme poverty (defined as living on less than USD 1.90/day) saw a huge decrease, from
36% of the world’s population in 1990 to 10% in 2015.78 Some reports predict that by 2030,
the majority of the world’s population will be middle class (defined as those falling between
67-200% of the median income in a country)79, with the middle class in the Asia-Pacificgrowing at a tremendous rate, led by China and India. Indeed, by 2030, the Asia-Pacific region
is forecast to be home to two-thirds of the global middle class, who will become the world’s
biggest spenders.80

Related trends: Customized
products, Diversifying inequalities,
Increasing migration, Natural
resource scarcity, Stagnatinghappiness levels, The experience
economy, Threatened ecosystems

As people get richer, they can shift their focus from survival to enjoyment of life,
progressively seeking better quality (and more) goods and services. The rising middle
classes could become a key engine of economic growth in coming decades, as they
consume higher quality goods, travel more, invest more and improve their education levels.
With more purchasing power and more access to information, they may develop a stronger
political voice and create pressure in many parts of the world to strengthen democratic
processes and institutions.81
At the same time, however, this will also lead to increased consumption of energy (largely
fossil fuels in Asia and Africa) and could exacerbate risks related to climate change and78.

Poverty Overview (World Bank, 2014)

79.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)80.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

81.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

中産階級の台頭
世界中で貧困削減のトレンドは数十年にわたって続いており，ヨーロッパでは少なくとも 50 年間，最近ではアジアとラテンアメリカでも続いています。特に，極度の貧困 (1 日あたり 1.90 米ドル未満で生活することと定義) は，1990 年の世界人口の 36% から 2015 年には 10% へと大幅に減少しました。78 一部のレポートでは，2030 年までに世界人口の過半数が中産階級（国の平均所得の67～
200％にあたる人々と定義）になり79，中国とインドを筆頭に，アジア太平洋地域の中産階級は驚異的な速度で増加すると予測されています。実際，2030 年までに，アジア太平洋地域には，世界最大の消費者となる世界の中産階級の 3 分の 2 が住むと見られています。80
人々はより豊かになるにつれて，生き残ることから人生を楽しむことへと焦点を移し，より質の高い(そしてより多くの) 商品やサービスを求めるようになります。増加する中産階級は，より質の高い商品を消費し，より多くの旅行をし，より多くの投資を行い，教育レベルを向上させるため，今後数十年で経済成長の重要な原動力となる可能性があります。より多くの購買力とより多くの情報へのアクセスにより，彼らはより強力な政治的発言力を発達させ，世界の多くの地域で民主的なプロセスと制度を強化するよう圧力をかける可能性があります。81
しかし同時に，これはエネルギー消費（主にアジアとアフリカでは化石燃料）の増加にもつながり，気候変動と資源不足に関連するリスクを悪化させる可能性があります。中間層の消費の増加と持続可

78.

Poverty Overview (World Bank, 2014)

79.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)80.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

81.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：カスタマイズされた製品, 不平等の多様化, 移民の増加, 天然
資源の不足, 幸福度の停滞, 経験経済,
脅かされている生態系

resource scarcity. Good governance, innovation and new technologies will be vital if we are toreconcile increasing middle class consumption and sustainability.

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - How standards can lead tobetter lives

Of course, the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed
progress in reducing poverty and stalled the expansion of the global middle class, so someof these predictions may have to be revised once the longer-term effects of the pandemic
become clearer.82 In a more pessimistic scenario where economic slowdown is protracted,
some predict that a frustrated middle class, fearing a backslide into poverty, may become aforce for instability or a bastion of populism.

82.

The pandemic stalls growth in the global middle class, pushes poverty up sharply (Pew Research Center, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

能性を両立させるには，優れたガバナンス，イノベーション，新しいテクノロジーが不可欠です。
関連するISOニュースストーリー
もちろん，COVID-19 パンデミックに起因する経済の低迷は，貧困削減の進展を遅らせ，世界の中産階級の拡大を停滞させているため，パンデミックの長期的な影響が明らかになれば，これらの予測の一部を修正する必要があるかもしれません。82 経済の減速が長期化するというより悲観的なシナリオ
では，貧困に逆戻りすることを恐れて不満を抱く中産階級が，不安定化の原動力やポピュリズムの要塞になる可能性があると予測する人もいます。

82.

The pandemic stalls growth in the global middle class, pushes poverty up sharply (Pew Research Center, 2021)‹›
Society• ISO - How standards can lead tobetter lives

Stagnating happiness levels

Related trends: Diversifying
inequalities, Rise of
the middle class

People are becoming more prosperous overall as the global middle class grows, but thisgrowth is mostly in developing countries. In developed countries, by contrast, middle classwages and employment could be threatened by increased automation and global competition
in low-cost manufacturing (for example, McKinsey estimated that as of 2014, two-thirds ofhouseholds in developed economies had real incomes at or below their 2005 levels).83
Slow economic growth means that these citizens, who have come to expect regular rises
in living standards over time, will no longer perceive any visible improvements, leading to
public dissatisfaction, disappointment and stagnating happiness levels. As their societies also
become more unequal, this dissatisfaction could even lead to social divisions and internal
conflict.84 At the same time, governments will find it increasingly difficult to fund rising welfare
costs and investment in public services without sufficient economic growth.
In the absence of an economic miracle, governments will have to concentrate more on
the other elements that can determine human happiness such as mental wellbeing andsocial connectivity.85

83.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)84.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)85.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

幸福度の停滞
世界の中産階級が成長するにつれて，人々は全体的により豊かになってきていますが，この成長は主に発展途上国に見られます。対照的に，先進国では，中産階級の賃金と雇用は，自動化の増加と低コスト製造業における世界的な競争によって脅かされる可能性があります (たとえば，
McKinseyは，2014 年時点で，先進国の世帯の 3 分の 2 が2005 年の水準を下回ると推定しました）。83
経済成長の鈍化は，生活水準の定期的な上昇を期待するようになったこれらの市民が，目に見える改善をもはや認識できず，国民の不満，失望，幸福度の停滞につながることを意味します。これら市民の社会も不平等になるにつれて，この不満は社会的分裂や内部紛争につながる可能性さえあります。84 同時に，政府は，十分な経済成長がなければ，増加する福祉費用や公共サービスへの投資に資金を提供することがますます困難になるでしょう。
経済的な奇跡が起きない限り，政府は，精神的健康や社会的つながりなど，人間の幸福を決定する
他の要素にもっと集中する必要があります。85

83.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)84.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)85.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：不平等の多様化, 中産階級の台頭Tech risks
Ethics of technology | Data privacy | Cyber-vulnerability
As technology becomes integrated into more aspects of our lives, the profile of risks associatedwith technology is also expanding. New advances in many kinds of technologies pose
potentially, significant ethical challenges (e.g. ‘Artificial intelligence’ (AI), ‘Biotechnology’, or
decarbonization technologies). This coincides with our increasing use of these technologies,
creating potential risks at a macro-level (e.g. cybersecurity of a nation’s critical infrastructures)
and at a micro-level (e.g. security of personal data and individuals’ vulnerability to online
manipulation). Such risks are certainly to be expected with the advent of disruptive technologies
and they are the price we have to pay for the great benefits these technologies offer us; it
is a question of how well we recognize and mitigate these risks so as to ensure that newtechnologies can be used for the benefit of all.

Ethics of technology
Many governments around the world are turning their attention to the ethics of technology
and the implications of fast-developing technology for future societies.

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Autonomousvehicles, Data privacy, Geneediting, Natural resource scarcity,
Robotics, Synthetic biology,
Threatened ecosystems

Ethics related to the use of ‘Artificial intelligence’ for automated vehicles, automateddecisions, and consumer interactions are topics that are frequently raised86 and governments
will increasingly be expected to address concerns around digital harm, disinformation,
antitrust and foreign interference.87 The AI-enabled technologies of the future must benefit
86.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)87.

The global risks report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

技術リスク
技術の倫理 | データ保護 | サイバー漸弱性
テクノロジーが私たちの生活のより多くの側面に統合されるにつれて，テクノロジーに関連するリスクのプロファイルも拡大しています。多くの種類のテクノロジーにおける新たな進歩は，潜在的に重大な倫理的課題をもたらします (「人工知能」(AI)，「バイオテクノロジー」，または脱炭素化技術など)。これは，これらのテクノロジーの使用の増加と一致しており，マクロ レベル (国家の重要なインフラストラクチャーのサイバーセキュリティなど) およびミクロ レベル (個人データのセキュリティやオンライン操作に対する個人の脆弱性など) で潜在的なリスクを生み出しています。このようなリスクは，破壊的技術の出現により確実に予想されるものであり，これらのテクノロジーが私たちに提供する大きな利益に対して支払わなければならない代償です。すべての人の利益のために新しいテクノロジーを使用できるようにするために，これらのリスクをどれだけ認識して軽減するかが問題です。

技術の倫理
世界中の多くの政府が，技術の倫理と，急速に発展するテクノロジーが将来の社会に与える影響に注意を向けています。
自動運転車，自動意思決定，消費者とのやり取りにおける「人工知能」の使用に関連する倫理は，頻繁に取り上げられるトピックであり86，政府はデジタル被害，偽情報，反トラスト，および外国の干渉に関する懸念に対処することがますます期待されます。87 英国国防省によると，将来の AI 対応技術は，
86.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)87.

The global risks report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：人工知能, 自動運
転車, データ保護, 遺伝子編集, 天
然資源の不足, ロボティクス, 合成
生物学, 脅かされている生態系

from effective ‘technical, legal, and ethical frameworks’, according
to the UK Ministry of Defence.88 Ethical questions are perhaps mostcritical in the area of militarized AI, and the use of technology inconflict. While machines could behave without regard for humansuffering, they may also more accurately calculate the costs ofconflict. Complexities can be expected to arise if countries develop
conflicting ethical and legal frameworks for AI, both in militarycontexts and more broadly.89 Other key ethical issues related toAI systems are about unwanted bias, eavesdropping, and safety,
and industry is already busy trying to address these. The ISO/IEC committee working on AI (ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42) has collected
132 use cases for AI, including ethical considerations and societal
concerns for each (for more details, see ISO/IEC TR 24030:2021,
Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases).
When considering the ethics of using AI, however, it is equallyimportant to consider the ethics of not using AI. The risks of using AI
are frequently discussed, but one question that is not addressed often
enough is – when does it become unethical for us not to use AI? For
example, if AI technology could predict the next pandemic or speed
up vaccine development, one could argue that it would be unethicalnot to use this technology. There are plenty of examples like this, for88.

instance, a common question posed is: if an AI-enabled autonomousvehicle had to hit someone, who should it hit? But is this the rightquestion if the proper use of AI-enabled autonomous driving can help
save lives by reducing accidents overall?
Of course, AI is not the only emerging technology that could
pose significant ethical challenges in the future. Advancements inbiotechnology could – alone, or in combination with AI – lead tothe creation of synthetic life forms or augmented human beings,
with enhanced physical or cognitive abilities. How to regulatetechnologies that can fundamentally alter human capabilities orchange the human gene pool “could prompt strident domestic
and international battles” in coming decades (see ‘Gene editing’).90
Even technological advances to treat diseases could engender
political debates about the ethics of access (since treatments
are likely to be available only to those who can afford them).91
Not to mention continued ethical debates about geneticallyengineered crops and foods and their potential ecological or healthrelated consequences.92
As the climate crisis becomes more urgent, we may also soon
face ethical issues related to the use of new technologies for

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)89.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)90.

Global trends. Paradox of Progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)91.

Global trends. Paradox of Progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)92.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

効果的な「技術的，法的，および倫理的な枠組み」から恩恵を受けなければなりません。88 倫理的な問題は，軍事化された AI の分野と，紛争におけるテクノロジーの使用においておそらく最も重要です。機械は人間の苦しみ

ぶつからなければならない場合，誰にぶつかるべきかという質問がよくを考慮せずに振る舞うこともできますが，紛争のコストをより正確に計算することもできます。各国が，軍事的背景とより広い範囲の両方で，相反するAI の倫理的および法的枠組みを開発した場合，複雑さが生じることが予想されます。89 AI システムに関連するその他の主要な倫理的問題は，望ま

しょうか?

しくないバイアス，盗聴，および安全性に関するものであり，業界はこれらの問題に対処するためにすでに慌ただしくなっています。AI に取り組んでいる ISO/IEC 委員会 (ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42) は，AI の 132 のユースケ出されます。しかし，AI 対応の自動運転を適切に使用することで，全体的な事故を減らして命を救うことができるかどうか，これは正しい質問でもちろん，将来的に重大な倫理的課題をもたらす可能性のある新しいテ
クノロジーは AI だけではありません。バイオテクノロジーの進歩は，単独で，または AI と組み合わせて，身体能力または認知能力が強化された合成生命体または拡張人間の創生につながる可能性があります。人間の能力を根本的に変えたり，人間の遺伝子プールを変えたりするテク
ノロジーを規制する方法は，今後数十年で「国内および国際的な激しいースを収集しました。これには，それぞれの倫理的考慮事項と社会的懸念が含まれます (詳細については，ISO/IEC TR 24030：2021, Information
technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases を参照)。

するための技術的進歩でさえ，アクセスの倫理についての政治的議論を

ただし，AI を使用する場合の倫理を考慮するときは，AI を使用しない場合

けが利用できる可能性が高いため)。91 遺伝子組み換え作物と食品，おの倫理を考慮することも同様に重要です。 AI を使用するリスクは頻繁に議よびそれらの潜在的な生態学的または健康関連の結果についての継続論されますが，十分に対処されていない質問の 1 つは，いつ AI を使用しな的な倫理的議論についても言うまでもありません。92

戦いを引き起こす可能性がある」（「遺伝子編集」を参照）。90 病気を治療引き起こす可能性があります (治療は，それを購入する余裕のある人だ

いことが非倫理的になるのかということです。たとえば，AI技術が次のパンデミックを予測したり，ワクチン開発を加速したりすることができる場合，この気候危機がより差し迫ったものになるにつれて，脱炭素化のための新テクノロジーを使用しないことは非倫理的であると主張することができます。

技術の使用に関連する倫理的問題にもすぐに直面する可能性がありま

このような例はたくさんあります。たとえば，AI 対応の自動運転車が誰かに

88.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)89.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)90.

Global trends. Paradox of Progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)91.

Global trends. Paradox of Progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)92.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)‹›
Societydecarbonization. While geoengineering technologies (carbon dioxide [CO2] removal and solarradiation management) have for many years been considered morally unacceptable, they are
now gaining more attention as potential solutions of last resort.93 Ethical concerns here range
from distributive justice for future generations or vulnerable populations (negative effects
of geoengineering actions could disproportionately some countries or populations e.g. byincreasing drought in Africa and Asia), to procedural justice questions (who should decide touse these technologies and how?).

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42, Artificial intelligence• ISO - It’s all about trust• ISO/IEC DIS 23894, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – Risk management• ISO - To ethicize or not to ethicize…

• ISO/IEC TR 24030:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases• ISO - Big plans for big data

• ISO/IEC DTR 24368, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – Overview of ethical andsocietal concerns

݁ ISO/TC 241, Road traffic safety management systems• ISO/DIS 39003, Road Traffic Safety (RTS) – Guidance on safety ethical considerations forautonomous vehicles

݁ ISO/CASCO, Committee on conformity assessment• ISO/TS 17033:2019, Ethical claims and supporting information – Principles and requirements

93.

Ethics of geoengineering (Viterbi Conversations in Ethics, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

す。ジオエンジニアリング技術(二酸化炭素 [CO2] の除去と太陽放射の管理) は，道徳的に容認できな
いと長年考えられてきましたが，現在では最後の手段としての潜在的な解決策として注目を集めています。93 ここでの倫理的懸念は，将来の世代または脆弱な人々のための分配的正義 (ジオエンジニアリン
グ活動の負の影響が一部の国または人々に不均衡に影響する可能性があります。例えば，アフリカやアジアで干ばつが増加する。) から，手続き上の正義の問題 (誰がこれらの技術をどのように使用するかを決定すべきか? ）に及びます。

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42, Artificial intelligence• ISO/IEC DIS 23894, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – Risk management• ISO/IEC TR 24030:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases• ISO/IEC DTR 24368, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – Overview of ethical andsocietal concerns݁◌ ISO/TC 241, Road traffic safety management systems• ISO/DIS 39003, Road Traffic Safety (RTS) – Guidance on safety ethical considerations forautonomous vehicles݁◌ ISO/CASCO, Committee on conformity assessment• ISO/TS 17033:2019, Ethical claims and supporting information – Principles and requirements

93.

Ethics of geoengineering (Viterbi Conversations in Ethics, 2021)‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - It’s all about trust• ISO - To ethicize or not to ethicize…
• ISO - Big plans for big data

Data privacy

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Blockchain,
Customized products,
Cyber-vulnerability, Ethics oftechnology, Internet of Things“Trust and accountability are the new litmus tests for businesses in a world where digitalis everywhere.”94
In the future, will data privacy be a thing of the past? Many sources agree that there is aclear trend towards the progressive loss of privacy that accompanies new developments intechnology. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, “In the coming decades, every facetof one’s life is likely to be recorded by the ubiquitous presence of wearable devices, smart
sensors and the ‘Internet of Things’.”95 But at the same time, there is also a trend towards
emphasizing privacy, for example, using privacy by design development. Once privacyrespecting technology is available, the market has the choice, and the global success of theEuropean Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) principles is an indicator ofthis trend.96
The use of biometric data, such as fingerprints and facial mapping, is increasing in bothprivate (e.g. social media and personal technology products) and public (law enforcement
and population surveillance) contexts.97,98 Consumer trust will be an increasingly important
issue as technology becomes increasingly prolific in everyday activities. Already, a majority of
consumers are wary of connected devices and fearful of misuse of their personal data.99,100
94.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

95.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)96.

Two years of GDPR: Questions and answers (European Commission, 2020)

97.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)98.

20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

99.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

100.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

データ保護「信頼と説明責任は，デジタルがどこにでもある世界のビジネスにとって，新たなリトマス試験紙です。」94
将来，データのプライバシーは過去のものになるのでしょうか? 多くの情報筋は，テクノロジーの新たな発展に伴い，プライバシーが徐々に失われるという明らかなトレンドがあることに同意しています。英国国防省によると，「今後数十年で，生活のあらゆる面が，ウェアラブル デバイス，スマートセンサー，および「モノのインターネット」の至る所にある存在によって記録される可能性があります。」95 しかし同時に，プライバシーを重視するトレンドもあります。たとえば，プライバシー バイ
デザイン開発を使用します。プライバシーを尊重するテクノロジーが利用可能になると，市場には選択肢があり，欧州連合の一般データ保護規則 (GDPR) 原則の世界的な成功は，このトレンドの指標です。96
指紋や顔のマッピングなどの生体認証データの使用は，プライベート (ソーシャル メディアやパー
ソナル テクノロジー製品など) とパブリック (法執行機関や住民監視) の両方の状況背景で増加しています。97,98 消費者の信頼は，テクノロジーが日々の活動でますます多用されるようになるにつれて，ますます重要な問題になるでしょう。すでに大多数の消費者は，接続されたデバイスに警戒し，個人データの悪用を恐れています。99,100

94.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

95.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)96.

Two years of GDPR: Questions and answers (European Commission, 2020)

97.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)98.

20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

99.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

100.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド： 人口知能, ブロックチェーン, カス
タマイズされた製品,サイバー脆弱性, 技術の倫理,
モノのインターネット

Some even suggest there may be a ‘digital bubble’, the bursting of which will be due in partto privacy concerns – “Concerns about data privacy have called into question whether digitaltechnologies will continue to grow at this rate.”101 At the same time, companies are adjusting
to market conditions and, if the market demands privacy, industry will develop appropriate
products.102 Industry needs to realize that privacy-respecting products are not much more
expensive (if well done), but can instead provide a competitive advantage, since trust is a key
decision factor for consumers faced with multiple options. Initiatives allowing the creationof ‘digital trust’, such as Yelp and Foursquare, are thus likely to grow in popularity.103 Once
society acknowledges that data has a value and therefore the data owner needs to be paid,a ‘new balance’ will be established. The question is, if and when such an acknowledgement
may come…?
In the meantime, to reassure consumers, both government regulation and business leadershipare necessary to establish privacy and data management standards that keep pace withemerging needs.104 Indeed, this will be a growing consumer expectation.105 Ultimately, it seems
inevitably that technology will permeate almost everything we do and lead to enormous
improvements in quality of life across society. However, these benefits will need to be carefullybalanced with the accompanying risks to privacy and security.106

101.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

102. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
103. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)104.

20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

105.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

106.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

「デジタル バブル」が発生する可能性があることを示唆する人さえいますが，その崩壊は，一部にはプライバシーへの懸念が原因である可能性があります。101 同時に，企業は市場の状況に適応しており，市場がプライバシーを要求する場合，業界は適切な製品を開発します。102 業界は，プライバシーを尊重する製品は (うまくできていれば) それほど高価ではなく，複数の選択肢に直面する消費者にとって信頼が重要な決定要因であるため，代わりに競争上の優位性を提供できることを認識する必要があります。したがって，Yelp や Foursquare などの「デジタル トラスト」の作成を可能にするイニシアチブ
は，人気が高まる可能性があります。103 データに価値があり，データ所有者に支払いが必要であることを社会が認めると，「新しいバランス」が確立されます。問題は，そのような認識がいつ来るかということです...?
それまでの間，消費者を安心させるために，政府の規制と企業のリーダーシップの両方が，新たなニーズに対応するプライバシーとデータ管理の基準を確立する必要があります。104 実際，これは消費者の期待の高まりです。105 最終的には，テクノロジーが私たちの行動のほとんどすべてに浸透し，社会全体の生活の質を大幅に向上させることは避けられないようです。ただし，これらの利点は，プライバシーとセキュリティに付随するリスクと慎重にバランスを取る必要があります。106101.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)102.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

103.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)104.

20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

105.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

106.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›
SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO - Protecting privacy and consent online• ISO/IEC 27009:2020, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection – Sector-specificapplication of ISO/IEC 27001 – Requirements• ISO - Safe, secure and private, whatever
your business• ISO/IEC 27701:2019, Security techniques – Extension to ISO/IEC 27001, and ISO/IEC 27002, forprivacy information management – Requirements and guidelines• ISO - How Microsoft makes your data its priority• ISO - Tackling privacy information management headon: first international standard just published݁ ISO/PC 317, Consumer protection: privacy by design for consumer goods
and services• ISO - Data privacy by design: a new standard
ensures consumer privacy at every step• ISO/DIS 31700, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer goods and services‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO/IEC 27009:2020, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection – Sector-specificapplication of ISO/IEC 27001 – Requirements• ISO/IEC 27701:2019, Security techniques – Extension to ISO/IEC 27001, and ISO/IEC 27002, forprivacy information management – Requirements and guidelines݁◌ ISO/PC 317, Consumer protection: privacy by design for consumer goods andservices• ISO/DIS 31700, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer goods and services‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Protecting privacy and consent online• ISO - Safe, secure and private,
whatever your business• ISO - How Microsoft makes your data its priority• ISO - Tackling privacy information management
head on: first international standard just published• ISO - Data privacy by design: a new standard
ensures consumer privacy at every step

Cyber-vulnerability
Increasing reliance on technology and the proliferation of digital devices in daily life will create
increasing risks related to ‘Data privacy’, cyberattacks, and consequences of system failure.107,108 The
key factor for prevention is risk awareness and proactive risk mitigation.
New digital technologies present serious challenges for governments and organizations andcybersecurity will remain a priority as critical infrastructure is increasingly connected to online
systems and technological dependence on the Internet continues to rise (see ‘Spread of theInternet’). Internationally, countries will have to respond to evolving cyber-threats and prepare forcyberattacks as an instrument of war, counterintelligence, and political interference.109,110,111 One data
breach can impact multiple nations sharing online systems.112 If they are aware, national leaders
may take appropriate steps to protect large-scale systems such as electrical, communications,financial, logistical, and food-production grids.113 They need to be proactive. Common Criteria for
Information Technology Security Evaluation or the EU Cybersecurity Act are two examples of suchproactive ventures.

107.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)108.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)109.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)110.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development
Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

111.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)112.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)113.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development
Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹
Foreword

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Autonomousvehicles, Blockchain,
Data privacy, Internetof Things, Quantum
technologies, Spread of
the Internet›SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

サイバー脆弱性
テクノロジーへの依存度が高まり，日常生活でデジタル デバイスが急増すると，「データ 保護」，サイバー攻撃，およびシステム障害の結果に関連するリスクが増大します。107,108 予防の重要な要素は，リスク認識と積
極的なリスク軽減です。
重要なインフラストラクチャーがますますオンライン システムに接続され，インターネットへの技術的依存が高まり続けているため，新しいデジタル技術は政府や組織に深刻な課題を突きつけています。国際的には，各国は進化するサイバー脅威に対応し，戦争，防諜，政治干渉の手段としてのサイバー攻撃に備える必要があります（「インターネットの拡がり」を参照）。109,110,111 1 つのデータ侵害が，オンライン システムを共有している
複数の国に影響を与える可能性があります。112 国の指導者は認識している場合，電気，通信，金融，物流，および食料生産グリッドなどの大規模システムを保護するために適切な措置を講じる可能性があります。国の指導者は積極的になる必要があります。113 Information Technology Security Evaluation のための共通基準または EU Cybersecurity Act は，そのような積極的な取り組みの 2 つの例です。

107.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)108.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)109.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)110.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development
Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

111.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)112.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)113.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development
Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：人口知
能, 自動運転車, ブロックチ
ェーン,
データ保護, モノのインタ
ーネット, 量子技術, イン
ターネットの普及

Questions around ‘cyber borders’ may be part of the discussion around ensuring protection
from attacks therefore countries and organizations alike must prepare for developments incyber-crime.114 As increasing numbers of citizens are connected to, and reliant on, online
networks, the potential for terrorist attacks will grow, if the system is not resilient enough andsufficiently protected.115 For developing countries in particular, preparedness for cyber-threats
will need to accompany digitalization programmes and development of connected systems.116
Finally, cyber-vulnerability does not exist only at the level of countries and organizations.
Looked at from a slightly different perspective, the vulnerability of individuals is also set toincrease because of their online exposure. For example, more people will get their information
online, leaving them potentially more exposed to misinformation (‘fake news’), which could be
used to manipulate individuals or even on a larger scale to influence public opinion.117
To effectively mitigate these risks related to cyber-vulnerability, people cannot rely on
government action alone – society needs to be the driving force. Society needs to demandthat organizations maintain highly sophisticated information security systems to foster
consumer trust and remain competitive.118

114.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)115.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)116.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

117.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and Choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

118.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

「サイバー国境」に関する質問は，攻撃からの保護を確実にすることに関する議論の一部である可能性があるため，国や組織は同様にサイバー犯罪の進展に備える必要があります。114 ますます多くの市民がオンライン ネットワークに接続し，オンライン ネットワークに依存するようになっているため，システムの回復力と保護が不十分であると，テロ攻撃の可能性が高まります。115 特に発展途上国では，サイバー脅威への備えは，デジタル化プログラムと接続されたシステムの開発に付随する必要があります。116
最後に，サイバー脆弱性は国や組織のレベルだけに存在するわけではありません。少し違った視点から見ると，個人の脆弱性もオンラインでの暴露により増加するようになっています。たとえば，より多くの人々が自分の情報をオンラインで入手するようになり，誤った情報 (「フェイク ニュース」) にさらされる可能性が高くなり，個人を操作したり，大規模に世論に影響を与えたりするために使用される可能性があります。117
サイバー脆弱性に関連するこれらのリスクを効果的に軽減するには，人々は政府の行動だけに頼ることはできません。社会が原動力になる必要があります。社会は，消費者の信頼を育み，競争力を維持するために，組織が高度に洗練された情報セキュリティ システムを維持することを要求する必要があります。118

114.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)115.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)116.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

117.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and Choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

118.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹›
SocietyRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO - Cybersecurity in cars

• ISO/IEC PRF TR 5895, Cybersecurity – Multi-party coordinated vulnerability disclosure and handling• ISO - The cybersecurity skills gap• ISO/IEC 29147:2018, Information technology – Security techniques – Vulnerability disclosure• ISO - Keeping cybersafe• ISO/IEC 30111:2019, Information technology – Security techniques – Vulnerability handling processes• ISO - Cybersecurity in the driver’s seat
• ISO - Smart manufacturing: new ISO guidance toreduce the risks of cyber-attacks on machinery݁ ISO/TC 22/SC 32, Electrical and electronic components and general system aspects• ISO/SAE 21434:2021, Road vehicles – Cybersecurity engineering• ISO - How to tackle today’s IT security risks

݁ ISO/TC 215, Health informatics• ISO - The quest for cyber-trust• ISO/AWI TS 6268-1, Health informatics – Cybersecurity framework for telehealth environment –Part 1: overview and concepts• ISO - Are we safe in the Internet of Things?

• ISO/IEEE 11073-40101:2022, Health informatics – Device interoperability – Part 40101: Foundational –Cybersecurity – Processes for vulnerability assessment‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO/IEC PRF TR 5895, Cybersecurity – Multi-party coordinated vulnerability disclosure and handling• ISO/IEC 29147:2018, Information technology – Security techniques – Vulnerability disclosure• ISO/IEC 30111:2019, Information technology – Security techniques – Vulnerability handling processes݁◌ ISO/TC 22/SC 32, Electrical and electronic components and general system aspects• ISO/SAE 21434:2021, Road vehicles – Cybersecurity engineering݁◌ ISO/TC 215, Health informatics• ISO/AWI TS 6268-1, Health informatics – Cybersecurity framework for telehealth environment –Part 1: overview and concepts• ISO/IEEE 11073-40101:2022, Health informatics – Device interoperability – Part 40101: Foundational –Cybersecurity – Processes for vulnerability assessment‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Cybersecurity in cars

• ISO - The cybersecurity skills gap• ISO - Keeping cybersafe• ISO - Cybersecurity in the driver’s seat

• ISO - Smart manufacturing: new ISO guidance toreduce the risks of cyber-attacks on machinery• ISO - How to tackle today’s IT security risks• ISO - The quest for cyber-trust• ISO - Are we safe in the Internet of Things?

The changing nature of work
Effects of automation | Reinventing the workplace
History has seen several industrial revolutions that have each dramatically changed the labour
market, as means of production and levels of productivity have continually evolved with theintroduction of new technologies. Today, new technologies are converging to make for evenfaster progress and more disruptive changes to the nature of work. Automation will change
the kinds of jobs needed in the future, while digital technologies and societal preferences willchange how and where we work. Thus, not only is the definition of ‘workforce’ changing, but
the scope and focus of what a human resource department does may be shifting from being‘workforce focused’ to ‘human capital focused’.

Effects of automation
The increasing automation of industry is already a very observable and well-studied trend.
With advances in ‘Artificial intelligence‘, ‘Smart manufacturing’, and ‘Robotics‘, the ability ofmachines to perform tasks more effectively than people is steadily increasing. This will haveenormous consequences for the global employment landscape, with some studies predicting
that, at the global level, “automation could eliminate 9% of existing jobs and radically change
approximately one-third in the next 15 to 20 years”.119 What sets this industrial transformation
apart from those that came before it is the speed at which it is occurring. This ‘Fourth
Industrial Revolution’, as it is often known, is happening so rapidly that careful governance will
be required in order to maximize its potential benefits.

119.

Related trends: Additive
manufacturing, Artificial intelligence,
Autonomous vehicles, Diversifying
inequalities, Robotics, Stagnatinghappiness levels

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

仕事の性質の変化
自動化の効果 | 職場の再発明

歴史上，いくつかの産業革命が見られ，それぞれが労働市場を劇的に変化させました。新しいテクノロ
ジーの導入により，生産手段と生産性レベルが絶えず進化してきたからです。今日，新しいテクノロジーが融合して，仕事の性質をさらに急速に進歩させ，破壊的な変化をもたらしています。自動化は将来必要とされる仕事の種類を変え，デジタル技術と社会的嗜好は私たちの働き方と場所を変えます。したがって，「労働力」の定義が変化しているだけでなく，人事部門が行うことの範囲と焦点は，「労働力中心」から「人的資本中心」へと移行している可能性があります。

自動化の効果産業の自動化の増加は，すでに非常に注目され，よく研究されているトレンドです。 「人工知能」，「スマート マニュファクチャリング」，「ロボティクス」の進歩により，人間よりも効率的にタスクを実行する機械の能力が着実に向上しています。これは，世界の雇用状況に多大な影響を与えるでしょう。一部の研究では，世界レベルで「自動化によって既存の仕事の 9% が失われ，今後 15 ～ 20 年で約 3 分の 1が根本的に変化する可能性がある」と予測されています。119 この産業革命がそれ以前の革命と異なるのは，その変化のスピードです。よく知られているように，この「第 4 次産業革命」は急速に進行しているため，潜在的な利益を最大化するには慎重なガバナンスが必要になります。

119.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド： アディティブ マニュ
ファクチャリング, 人工知能, 自動運転
車, 不平等の多様化, ロボティクス, 幸
福度の停滞While many studies focus on the potential job losses that could result
from automation, it is important to keep in mind that, at least in thelonger term, automation will also result in significant job creation. It
will create new kinds of jobs, removing the need for humans to do
unsafe, boring, and repetitive tasks, while increasing productivity andgiving workers more flexibility and leisure time than in the past.120,121
These new jobs will likely require higher-level technical skills andmore social and/or creative skills than the jobs that will disappear.122
Of course, the ability of individual countries to benefit fromautomation varies significantly depending on several factors:•

Demographics: Countries with ageing populations will likely
promote faster adoption of automation to replace and augment
their ageing workforces, especially in sectors such as health,aged care, mining, and agriculture.123,124 Automation in countries
with younger populations and a growing workforce could, on
the one hand, have more disruptive effects and potentiallyexert a downward pressure on wages. On the other hand,•these countries could also be more agile in responding tochanges brought about by automation, as long as they canprovide the required education to train new workers.125
Level of industrialization: There is some concern that
automation could disadvantage developing countries, as thesecountries tend to have a high number of jobs in manufacturing.
What’s more, a lot of manufacturing could be ‘re-shored’
back to developed countries by using robots, which would
decrease opportunities for developing countries to growtheir economies through export-led manufacturing.126 But
advanced economies will not be unchallenged either – they
may see revenue shortages as the number of workers paying
tax decreases, and they may be more susceptible to societal
upheaval as segments of their populations who are used toexperiencing a steady growth in living standards become
more disadvantaged.127

120. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)121.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)122. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)123. Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)
124.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)125.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

126.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)

127.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

多くの研究は，自動化がもたらす可能性のある潜在的な雇用喪失に焦点を当てていますが，少なくとも長期的には，自動化が大幅な雇用創出にもつながることを心に留めておくことが重要です。新しい種類の仕事が生まれ，危険で退屈で反復的な作業を人間が行う必要がなくなり，生産性が向上し，労働者に以前よりも柔軟性と余暇の時間が与えられます。120,121 これらの新し•金に下方圧力をかける可能性があります。一方，これらの国は，新しい労働者を訓練するために必要な教育を提供できる限り，自動化によってもたらされた変化に迅速に対応できる可能性もあります。125
工業化のレベル： 自動化が発展途上国に不利になる可能性があるという懸念があります。これらの国は，製造業の仕事が多い傾向があい仕事には，消滅する仕事よりも高いレベルの技術的スキルと，より社会的るためです。さらに，ロボットを使用することで，多くの製造業が先進

および/または創造的なスキルが必要になる可能性があります。122

国に「再移転」される可能性があります。これにより，発展途上国がもちろん，個々の国が自動化の恩恵を受ける能力は，いくつかの要因によって大きく異なります：•

輸出主導の製造業を通じて経済を成長させる機会が減少します。126
しかし，先進国にも課題が生じないわけではありません。税金を支払う労働者の数が減少するにつれて歳入が不足する可能性があり，生人口動態： 人口の高齢化が進む国では，特に医療，高齢者ケア，鉱業，農業などの分野で，高齢化した労働力を置き換えて増強する自動化の採用が加速する可能性があります。123,124 人口が若く，労働力が増加している国での自動化は，一方ではより破壊的な影響を及ぼし，賃活水準の安定した成長を経験することに慣れている人口の一部の層が恵まれなくなるにつれて，社会的混乱の影響を受けやすくなる可能性があります。127

120.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)121.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)

122.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)123.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

124.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)125.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

126.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)

127.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›
Society•Education systems: The skills present in a country’s workforce plus its ability toprovide access to continuing education will strongly influence how well it can adapt toincreased automation. In countries where women tend to have lower education levels
and fewer technical skills than men, their jobs may be at greater risk from automation,and this may lead to women being disproportionately excluded from the workforce.128
Therefore policymakers will need to ensure that sufficient retraining and upskilling
initiatives are put in place to make the transition as smooth as possible, in particular for
low and medium-skilled workers and (in some cases) women.129
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 184, Automation systems and integration• ISO - New (e-)takeoff for aviation industry• ISO/TR 23087:2018, Automation systems and integration – The Big Picture of standards• ISO - From high-tech gadgets to thesmart enterprise݁ ISO/TC 232, Education and learning services• ISO - Unearthing the potential ofautonomous mining with ISO 17757• ISO 29994:2021, Education and learning services – Requirements for distance learning• ISO/AWI TR 29996, Education and learning services – Distance and digital learning services(DDLS) – Case studies• ISO - Robots and humans can work
together with new ISO guidance݁ ISO/TC 299, Robotics• ISO/TS 15066:2016, Robots and robotic devices – collaborative robots

128. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)
129.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹
Foreword›
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Where to from here?

•

教育システム： 国の労働力に存在するスキルと，継続教育へのアクセスを提供する能力は，自動化の増加にどれだけうまく適応できるかに大きく影響します。女性が男性よりも教育レベルが低く，技術的スキルが低い傾向にある国では，女性の仕事は自動化によって大きなリスクにさらされる可能性があり，これにより，女性が労働力から不均衡に排除される可能性があります。128 したがって，政策立案者は，特に低・中スキル労働者と（場合によっては）女性のために，移行をできるだけスムーズにするために，十分な再訓練とスキルアップのイニシアチブが実施されるようにする必要があります。129

関連するISOニュースストーリー
関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 184, Automation systems and integration• ISO/TR 23087:2018, Automation systems and integration – The Big Picture of standards

݁◌ ISO/TC 232, Education and learning services• ISO 29994:2021, Education and learning services – Requirements for distance learning• ISO/AWI TR 29996, Education and learning services – Distance and digital learning services(DDLS) – Case studies݁◌ ISO/TC 299, Robotics• ISO/TS 15066:2016, Robots and robotic devices – collaborative robots

128.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)

129.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›
Society• ISO - New (e-)takeoff for aviation industry• ISO - From high-tech gadgets to thesmart enterprise• ISO - Unearthing the potential ofautonomous mining with ISO
17757• ISO - Robots and humans canwork together with new ISO
guidanceReinventing the workplace

Related trends: Ageing population,
Diversifying inequalities, Spread of
the Internet

While automation is changing the kind of jobs that dominate the employment landscape, othernew technologies and societal pressures are transforming workplace culture and how wework. Digital technology is allowing more people to work remotely and with much more flexible
schedules. This trend did not begin with the COVID-19 pandemic but has certainly been
accelerated by it – the pandemic led to a dramatic increase in the number of people working
remotely and in the use of videoconferencing and virtual meetings, alongside a large decreasein business travel and the use of physical office space.130 Surveys show that these trendsalign with the preferences of the great majority of millennials (92% want to work remotely
and 87% want to work according to their own schedule131) and allow people to better balance
their work and home lives. However, there are also potential negatives − some workers may
suffer increased stress levels due to being continually connected to work132, while others may
become disengaged and less productive, as they lose their physical connection to co-workers
and a dedicated workspace.133 Organizations are therefore facing the double challenge ofinvesting in the necessary technologies to enable a hybrid or remote work environment
in order to attract and retain the best talent, while also developing strategies to combat
increased employee stress or fragmentation and disengagement of their workforce.

130.

The future of work after COVID 19 (McKinsey Global Institute, 2021)

131.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)132. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)133. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

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Science

Where to from here?

職場の再発明
自動化が雇用情勢を支配する仕事の種類を変えている一方で，他の新しいテクノロジーと社会的圧力が職場の文化と働き方を変えています。デジタル技術により，より多くの人々がより柔軟なスケジュール
で，リモートで業務に就けるようになっています。このトレンドは COVID-19 のパンデミックで始まったわけではありませんが，COVID-19 のパンデミックによって確実に加速しています。パンデミックにより，出張と物理的なオフィススペースの使用が大幅に減少するとともに，リモートで業務をこなす人の数が劇的に増加し，ビデオ会議や仮想会議の使用が増加しました。130 調査によると，これらのトレンドは大多数のミレニアル世代の好み (92% がリモートで働きたい，87% が自分のスケジュールに従って働きたい131 ) の好みと一致しており，人々は仕事と家庭生活のバランスをより良くとることができます。ただし，潜在的なマイナス面もあります。仕事に継続的に接続されているためにストレスレベルが増加する労働者もいれば132，同僚や専用のワークスペースとの物理的な接続を失うため，意欲がなくなり，生産性が低下する労働者もいます。133 したがって，組織は，最高の人材を引き付けて保持するためにハイブリッド
またはリモート ワーク環境を可能にするために必要なテクノロジーに投資するという二重の課題に直面しています。また，従業員のストレスの増大や労働力の断片化および離職に対処するための戦略を策定することも必要です。

130.

The future of work after COVID 19 (McKinsey Global Institute, 2021)

131.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)132.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)133.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)‹›
Society

関連するトレンド：人口の高齢化, 不平等の多様化, インターネットの普及

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 260, Human resource management• ISO - Mental health matters• ISO 23326:2022, Human resource management – Employee engagement – Guidelines• ISO - The beauty of difference• ISO 30415:2021, Human resource management – Diversity and inclusion• ISO - Variety is the spice of success• ISO/AWI TS 30436, Human Resource Management – Diversity and Inclusion Metrics
Technical Specification• ISO - How to build a resilient workforce• ISO - Wise workplaces in the COVID-19, era݁ ISO/TC 260/AHG, Flexible work in the gig economy• ISO - New ISO standard rolls out practicaltips for employee engagement

݁ ISO/TC 159/SC 1, General ergonomics principles• ISO - Building success through people• ISO 10075-1:2017, Ergonomic principles related to mental workload – Part 1: General issues
and concepts, terms and definitions• ISO - New ISO standard puts humans at thecentre of business• ISO 27501:2019, The human-centred organization – Guidance for managers• ISO - A better designed workplace with
ISO standards

݁ ISO/TC 283, Occupational health and safety management• ISO 45003:2021, Occupational health and safety management – Psychological health andsafety at work – Guidelines for managing psychosocial risks• ISO/PAS 45005:2020, Occupational health and safety management – General guidelines
for safe working during the COVID-19, pandemic

݁ ISO/TC 292, Security and resilience• ISO/TS 22330:2018, Security and resilience – Business continuity management systems –Guidelines for people aspects of business continuity

݁ IEC/ISO SMART‹
Foreword›
SocietySociety

Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 260, Human resource management• ISO 23326:2022, Human resource management – Employee engagement – Guidelines• ISO 30415:2021, Human resource management – Diversity and inclusion• ISO/AWI TS 30436, Human Resource Management – Diversity and Inclusion Metrics
Technical Specification

݁◌ ISO/TC 260/AHG, Flexible work in the gig economy݁◌ ISO/TC 159/SC 1, General ergonomics principles• ISO 10075-1:2017, Ergonomic principles related to mental workload – Part 1: General issues
and concepts, terms and definitions• ISO 27501:2019, The human-centred organization – Guidance for managers

݁◌ ISO/TC 283, Occupational health and safety management• ISO 45003:2021, Occupational health and safety management – Psychological health andsafety at work – Guidelines for managing psychosocial risks• ISO/PAS 45005:2020, Occupational health and safety management – General guidelines
for safe working during the COVID-19, pandemic݁◌ ISO/TC 292, Security and resilience• ISO/TS 22330:2018, Security and resilience – Business continuity management systems –Guidelines for people aspects of business continuity

݁◌ IEC/ISO SMART‹›
Society

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Mental health matters• ISO - The beauty of difference• ISO - Variety is the spice of success• ISO - How to build a resilient workforce• ISO - Wise workplaces in the COVID-19, era• ISO - New ISO standard rolls out
practical tips for employee engagement• ISO - Building success through people• ISO - New ISO standard puts humans at thecentre of business• ISO - A better designed workplace with
ISO standards

Technology݁Computing݁Connectivity

݁Cyber-physical systems݁

Smart manufacturing

技術

݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌
݁
◌

コンピューティング
接続性
サイバーフィジカル システム
スマート マニュファクチャリングComputing
Artificial intelligence | Extended reality | Blockchain | Edge computing |Quantum technologies
The world is rapidly moving toward a post-digital era, where leaders will need to set theirsights beyond their ongoing digital transformations. With digital capabilities alone no longer
serving as a differentiator, future-minded business leaders will need more in their technology
arsenals to succeed.134
Innovative technologies are catalysts for change, offering businesses extraordinary new
capabilities. ‘Distributed ledger technology’, ‘Artificial intelligence’, ‘Extended reality’ and‘Quantum computing’ (known collectively as DARQ technologies) will be the next set of
emerging technologies to spark profound change, letting businesses reimagine entire
industries.135 In fact, individual DARQ technologies are already making a difference acrossindustries today. But collectively, the DARQ technologies will also power the innovation andopportunity uniquely associated with the coming post-digital era. As the business landscape
becomes increasingly dominated by digital natives and companies that have undergone
successful digital transformations, DARQ is the key that will open unimagined new pathways
into the future.136

134. Understanding the DNA of DARQ (Accenture, 2020)
135.

Technology Vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

136.

Technology Vision 2019. The post-digital era is upon us (Accenture, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

コンピューティング
人工知能 | 拡張現実 | ブロックチェーン | エッジ コンピューティング |量子技術

世界はポストデジタル時代へと急速に移行しており，リーダーは進行中のデジタルトランスフォーメーショ
ンの先に目を向ける必要があります。デジタル機能だけではもはや差別化要因として機能しないため，
未来志向のビジネス リーダーが成功するためには，より多くのテクノロジーが必要になります。134
革新的なテクノロジーは変化の触媒であり，ビジネスに並外れた新しい能力を提供します。 「分散型台帳技術」，「人工知能」，「拡張現実」，および「量子コンピューティング」 (まとめて DARQ テクノロジーとして知られている) は，企業が業界全体を再考できるように，大きな変化を引き起こす次の一連の新興技術となるでしょう。135 実際，個々の DARQ テクノロジーは，今日の業界全体ですでに違いを生み出しています。しかし，全体として，DARQ テクノロジーは，来るべきポスト デジタル時代に固有のイノベーシ
ョンと機会を促進することにもなります。ビジネス環境がデジタル ネイティブやデジタル トランスフォーメーションを成功させた企業によってますます支配されるようになるにつれて，DARQ は，想像を絶する新しい道を未来へと開く鍵となります。136

134.

Understanding the DNA of DARQ (Accenture, 2020)

135.

Technology Vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

136.

Technology Vision 2019. The post-digital era is upon us (Accenture, 2019)‹›Technology

Artificial intelligence

Related trends: 5G, Additive
manufacturing, Autonomousvehicles, Blockchain, Data
privacy, Edge computing,
Effects of automation, Ethics
of technology, Extended
reality, Internet of Things,
Robotics, Smart cities,
Spread of the Internet,
Quantum technologies

AI today includes a whole host of technologies from data science to computer science, toelectronics and social disciplines.137 It is a very broad field within information technology that is
enabling the digital transformation of industry and society by creating computers that have theability to learn as they are programmed to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence.
This includes reasoning, problem-solving, understanding language, making predictions orinferences, and perceiving situations or environments. Essentially, it involves computers being
able to provide better, deeper, and otherwise practically unachievable insights in an efficient
way by leveraging computer-learning algorithms.
This trend is about the rapid adoption of AI technologies whose increased capabilities andapplications have the potential to reshape almost every industry and profession as they
fundamentally change the ways in which humans interact with machines.138 This should beconsidered a megatrend because of the scale and geographic reach of its potential economic
and societal impacts.
The projected impacts of AI are significant. Many different projections and estimates exist,
but to provide an example of the magnitude of these projections, UN Conference on Tradeand Development’s Digital Economy Report139 estimates that AI has the potential to generate
USD 13 trillion of additional global economic output by 2030, contributing an additional 1.2% toannual GDP growth. The Future Today Institute predicts that the global AI market will grow at a
CAGR of 42.2% from 2021 to 2027.140
137.

Stanford University launches the Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (Stanford University, 2019)138. Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)139.

Digital Economy Report 2019 (UNCTAD, 2019)

140.

2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

人工知能
今日の AI には，データ サイエンスからコンピューター サイエンス，エレクトロニクス，社会分野まで，さまざまなテクノロジーが含まれています137 通常は人間の知性を必要とするタスクを実行するようにプログラムされた学習能力を持つコンピューターを作成することにより，産業と社会のデジタル変革を可能にする情報技術の非常に広い分野です。これには，推論，問題解決，言語の理解，予測または推論の作成，状況または環境の認識が含まれます。本質的には，コンピューター学習アルゴリズムを活用することにより，コンピューターが効率的な方法で，より良く，より深く，そうでなければ実際には達成不可能な洞察を提供できるようになることが関係しています。
このトレンドは，AI テクノロジーの急速な採用に関するものであり，その機能とアプリケーションの向上
は，人間と機械とのやり取りの方法を根本的に変えるため，ほぼすべての業界と職業を再形成する可能性を秘めています。138 これは，潜在的な経済的および社会的影響の規模と地理的範囲のため，メガトレンドと見なす必要があります。
AI の予測される影響は重大です。多くの異なる予測と見積もりが存在しますが，これらの予測の規模の例を提供するために，国連貿易開発会議のデジタル経済レポート 139 は，AI が 2030 年までに 13 兆米ドルの追加の世界経済生産を生み出し，年間 GDP 成長率を 1.2%押し上げる可能性があると見積もっています。 Future Today Institute は，世界の AI 市場が 2021 年から 2027 年にかけて CAGR
42.2% で成長すると予測しています。140

137.

Stanford University launches the Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (Stanford University, 2019)138.

Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)139.

Digital Economy Report 2019 (UNCTAD, 2019)

140.

2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：5G, アディティ
ブ マニュファクチャリング, 自動
運転車, ブロックチェーン, データ
保護, エッジ コンピューティング,
自動化の効果, 技術の倫理, 拡張現実, モノのインターネット, ロ
ボティクス, スマートシティ, イン
ターネットの普及, 量子技術

AI enabling next generation applications

Over the coming decades, applications of AI have the potential
to change our lives for the better in many ways. Some key
examples include:
•

•

141.

Changing the labour market: With AI’s huge potential to boost
productivity and economic growth, it will certainly have asignificant effect on the labour market. In the short term,
automation driven by AI (e.g. ‘Robotics’) could introduce some
disruption to many current jobs.141 But in the longer term, AI
promises to create a significant number of new jobs; jobs which
can remove the need for humans to do unsafe and repetitive
tasks (see ‘Effects of automation’).142
Better healthcare: AI is already transforming healthcare inareas such as pathology and radiology, by improving the speed
and accuracy of diagnosing diseases such as breast cancer.143
In future, AI will facilitate personalized medicine and drug••

development (e.g. allowing tailored, drug treatments based on
an individual’s genetic markers), help to eradicate infectious
diseases and even to predict future disease outbreaks that
may originate in animals.144,145
Personalized education: Like for personalized healthcare, AI
could be used for personalized learning – targeting learning
to the gaps in an individual student’s knowledge and creating
customized learning content.146
More efficient production and consumption: AI is widely
predicted to increase industry and worker productivity, which
is why so many companies are interested in adopting it in someform or other, looking to achieve a competitive advantage.147
McKinsey estimates that 70% of companies may adopt at least
one AI technology by 2030.148 AI will also increasingly be used
to identify more efficient delivery routes or supply chains149 andto maximize efficiency and sustainability in agriculture150, theoutcome of which could lead to significant economic growth.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)142. Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)143. Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity – finally, maybe –goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
144.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

145.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

146.

AI in Education. Change at the Speed of Learning (UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2020)

147.

Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)148.

Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)

149.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)150.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

治療を可能にする)を促進し，感染症を根絶させて，動物に起因する可能性のある将来の病気の発生を予測することさえも支援します。144,145

次世代アプリケーションを可能にする
今後数十年にわたって，AI のアプリケーションは，多くの点で私たちの生活をより良く変える可能性を秘めています。主な例は次のとおりです：•

労働市場の変化： AI には生産性と経済成長を促進する大きな可能性があるため，労働市場に大きな影響を与えることは間違いありません。短期的には，AI による自動化 (たとえば「ロボティクス」) は，現在の多くの仕事に何らかの混乱をもたらす可能性があります。141 しかし，長期的には，AI はかなりの数の新しい仕事；人間が危険で反復的なタスクを実行する必要性をなくすことができるジョブ (「自動化の効
果」を参照)を生み出すことを保証します。142•

より良いヘルスケア： AI は，乳がんなどの病気の診断の速度と精度を向上させることで，病理学や放射線学などの分野のヘルスケアをすでに変革しています。143 将来的には，AI は個別化された医療と医薬品の開発 (たとえば，個人の遺伝子マーカーに基づいて調整された薬物••

パーソナライズされた教育： 個別化された医療の場合と同様に，AI はパーソナライズされた学習に使用できます。つまり，個々の学生の知識のギャップに学習を向け，カスタマイズされた学習コンテンツを作成します。146
より効率的な生産と消費： AI は産業と労働者の生産性を向上させると広く予測されています。そのため，多くの企業が何らかの形で AI の採用に関心を持ち，競争上の優位性を獲得しようとしています。147
McKinseyは，企業の 70% が 2030 年までに少なくとも 1 つの AI テク
ノロジーを採用する可能性があると推定しています。148 AI は，より効率的な配送ルートまたはサプライ チェーンを特定し149，農業の効率と持続可能性を最大化するためにますます使用されるようになり150，その結果，大きな経済成長につながる可能性があります。

141.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)142.

Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)143.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity – finally, maybe –goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

144.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

145.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

146.

AI in Education. Change at the Speed of Learning (UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2020)

147.

Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)148.

Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)

149.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)150.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)‹›

Technology•More efficient and effective governance: AI could help
formulate and evaluate the effectiveness of government
policies and even be used to perform legal tasks that require
the sifting and analysis of huge amounts of data.151

Challenges and risks

Although the expected benefits of AI are enormous, good
governance of the technology will be essential if we are to realize
them. The development of appropriate legal and ethical frameworks
for AI will be critical to build societal trust and to mitigate thepotential risks and challenges. International Standards will havean important role to play as part of such frameworks to ensure theresponsible adoption of AI.
•

151.

Social implications: Because the ability to adopt and benefit
from AI is dependent on the presence of adequate digital
infrastructures, relevant technical skills in the workforce, andappropriate regulatory systems, AI has the potential to widen
the technology gap between those that have the capabilities
to benefit from it, and those who do not. This is the case interms of both countries and companies (large corporations may

be able to determine who has access to AI and its benefits).152
Those with access to the technology could potentially use it
for malicious purposes, for example, by creating deepfakes(using AI to alter videos of people) and tailored, online
communications (a sort of ‘personalized propaganda’) toradicalize or manipulate people.153 But even without malicious
intentions, just the fact that AI consumes so much data creates
potential privacy issues – “As AI evolves, it magnifies theability to use personal information in ways that can intrude on
privacy interests by raising analysis of personal information
to new levels of power and speed”.154 Indeed, AI is advancing
so rapidly that it could even one day evoke difficult questions
about what it means to be ‘human’. For example, AI is learning
to do things that even humans often find difficult – reading
human expressions, interpreting the emotions behind them,and analyzing a person’s level of emotional engagement.
Researchers are even working on teaching AI to convincingly
exhibit human emotions.155,156

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

152. 2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming year (Future Today Institute, 2021)
153.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)154.

Protecting privacy in an AI-driven world (Brookings, 2020)

155.

2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming year (Future Today Institute, 2021)

156.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

•

より効率的で効果的なガバナンス： AI は，政府の政策の有効性を定式化および評価するのに役立ち，大量のデータのふるい分けと分析を必要とする法的タスクの実行にも使用できます。151ります)。152 このテクノロジーにアクセスできる人は，ディープフェイク(AI を使用して人々のビデオを改ざんする) を作成したり，人々を過激化または操作するためにカスタマイズされたオンライン通信 (一種の「個人化されたプロパガンダ」) を作成したりするなど，悪意のある課題とリスクAI に期待される恩恵は計り知れませんが，それを実現するには，テクノロ
ジーの適切なガバナンスが不可欠です。 AI のための適切な法的および目的で使用する可能性があります。153 しかし，悪意がなくても，AI が非常に多くのデータを扱うという事実だけで，潜在的なプライバシー

倫理的枠組みの開発は，社会的信頼を構築し，潜在的なリスクと課題をの問題が生じる可能性があります。「AIは進化するにつれて，個人情軽減するために重要です。国際規格は，AI の責任ある採用を確実にする報の分析を新しいレベルのパワーとスピードに引き上げることで，プ

ために，そのような枠組みの一部として重要な役割を果たします。

ライバシーの利益を侵害する可能性のあるやり方で個人情報を使用•

社会的影響： AI を採用して恩恵を受ける能力は，適切なデジタル イており，いつの日か「人間」とは何を意味するのかという難しい問題を

ンフラストラクチャー，従業員の関連技術スキル，および適切な規制シ引き起こす可能性さえあります。たとえば，AI は，人間でさえ難しいとステムの存在に依存しているため，AI は，能力を持ちそれから恩恵を感じることが多いことを学習しています。人間の表情を読み取り，そ受ける人々とそうでない人々の間のテクノロジーギャップを広げる可能の背後にある感情を解釈し，人の感情的な関与のレベルを分析しま性があります。これは，国と企業の両方に当てはまります (大企業は，す。研究者たちは，人間の感情を納得のいくように表現するように AI

誰が AI にアクセスし，その恩恵を受けているかを判断できる場合があする能力を拡大していきます」。154 実際，AI は非常に急速に進歩しを教えることにも取り組んでいます。155,156

151.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)152.

2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming year (Future Today Institute, 2021)

153.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)154.

Protecting privacy in an AI-driven world (Brookings, 2020)

155.

2021 Tech Trends Report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming year (Future Today Institute, 2021)

156.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)‹›

Technology•Legal and ethical implications: Advanced AI that can makeautonomous decisions could be applied to medical diagnoses,
legal judgements or even used in warfare. This could be
problematic because of the risk of bias in AI – if given incorrector skewed data, this could lead to algorithmic discrimination
being deployed on a large scale (e.g. some facial analysis AI
has been shown to be less accurate at identifying minorities
and women, because the data it was trained on was not
representative).157,158 AI has the potential to reduce the impact ofhuman biases, but only if humans can identify and adequately
address bias in AI.

What is on the horizon for AI? (a few examples of many…)
•

•

•

•

•

157.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

158.

What do we do about the biases in AI (Harvard Business Review, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society

Edge computing: This is a system of moving computation
nearer to the sources of data or the ‘Edge’. Moving AI
workloads to the Edge (AI processing and decision making is
performed nearer to the source of the data generation, rather
than in the Cloud) to make it faster and safer.
System on a chip: Development of advanced chips with acomplex series of components that are designed to work on AI
projects and deliver faster and more secure processing.
Digital twins: The use of AI to significantly improve ‘digital twin’
technology (virtual representations of real-world environments
or products).
AI to detect AI: New measures to regulate creation anddetection of deepfakes will be complemented by AI systems
designed to identify deepfakes, whether these counterfeits are
text or imagery.
Emotion AI: Software that can read human vocal and facial
expressions, understand human emotions and the cognitive
states underlying them. Uses will include telehealth, online
learning, and virtual meetings/events.

›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

•

法的および倫理的影響： 自律的な意思決定を行うことができる高度なAI は，医療診断，法的判断，さらには戦争での使用に適用される可能性があります。これは，AI のバイアスのリスクがあるため，問題になる可能性があります。誤ったデータや歪んだデータが与えられた場合，アルゴリズムによる差別が大規模に展開される可能性があります (たとえば，一部の顔分析 AI は，トレーニングに使用されたデータが代表的ではなかったため，マイノリティや女性の識別の精度が低いことが示されています)。 157,158 AI は人間のバイアスの影響を軽減する可能性を秘めていますが，それは人間が AI のバイアスを特定して適切に対処できる場合に限られます。

AIの未来は？ （多くの例からのいくつかを…）
•

•
•
•
•

157.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

158.

What do we do about the biases in AI (Harvard Business Review, 2019)‹›Technology

エッジ コンピューティング： これは，計算をデータ ソースまたは「エッジ」に近づけるシステムです。 AI ワークロードをエッジに移動して (AIの処理と意思決定は，クラウドではなく，データ生成のソースの近くで実行されます)，より高速で安全になります。
システム オン チップ： AI プロジェクトで動作し，より高速で安全な処理を提供するように設計された複雑な一連のコンポーネントを備えた
高度なチップの開発。
デジタル ツイン： AI を使用して「デジタル ツイン」テクノロジー (現実世界の環境または製品の仮想表現) を大幅に改善します。
AI を検出する AI： ディープフェイクの作成と検出を規制する新しい手段は，ディープフェイクがテキストであれ画像であれ，識別するように設計された AI システムによって補完されます。
感情 AI： 人間の声と顔の表情を読み取り，人間の感情とその根底にある認知状態を理解できるソフトウェア。用途には，遠隔医療，オンラ
イン学習，仮想の会議/イベントが含まれます。

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42, Artificial intelligence• ISO - Tech’s big growth spurt• ISO/IEC TR 24027:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Bias in AI systems
and AI aided decision making• ISO - Enabling an AI-ready culture• ISO - Towards a trustworthy AI• ISO/IEC TR 24028:2020, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – overview oftrustworthiness in artificial intelligence• ISO - Embracing the age of artificial intelligencein the latest ISOfocus• ISO/IEC TR 24030:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases• ISO - Embracing the power of technology

݁ ISO/TC 215, Health informatics• ISO - How to unlock the AI promise• ISO/TR 24291:2021, Health informatics – Applications of machine learning technologies in imaging
and other medical applications• ISO - It’s all about trust• ISO - To ethicize or not to ethicize

݁ ISO/PC 317, Consumer protection: privacy by design for consumer goods
and services• ISO - The new frontier for artificial intelligence• ISO/DIS 31700-1, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer goods and services –Part 1: High level requirements‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42, Artificial intelligence• ISO/IEC TR 24027:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Bias in AI systems
and AI aided decision making• ISO/IEC TR 24028:2020, Information technology – Artificial intelligence – overview oftrustworthiness in artificial intelligence

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Tech’s big growth spurt• ISO - Enabling an AI-ready culture• ISO - Towards a trustworthy AI• ISO - Embracing the age of artificial intelligencein the latest ISOfocus• ISO/IEC TR 24030:2021, Information technology – Artificial intelligence (AI) – Use cases• ISO - Embracing the power of technology• ISO/TR 24291:2021, Health informatics – Applications of machine learning technologies in imaging
and other medical applications• ISO - It’s all about trust݁◌ ISO/TC 215, Health informatics

݁◌ ISO/PC 317, Consumer protection: privacy by design for consumer goods andservices• ISO/DIS 31700-1, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer goods and services –Part 1: High level requirements‹›

Technology• ISO - How to unlock the AI promise• ISO - To ethicize or not to ethicize• ISO - The new frontier for artificial intelligenceExtended reality

Related trends: 5G,
Services moving
online, Spread of
the Internet, The
experience economy

Extended reality (XR) refers to environments that combine the real and the virtual, throughthe use of computer technology and wearable devices. XR technologies consist of virtual,augmented and mixed reality (respectively VR, AR and MR).159 Each of VR, AR, and MR defines
a specific technology to reach XR, including the Metaverse. VR is fully digital and immersive,
AR can digitally enhance our view of the real world and more recently, MR can create a hybrid
reality where virtual and real worlds coexist.
XR technologies are transforming the way that people interact, live and work by offering
access to a new mode of social interactions within the digital space.160,161 The endgame is thefull development of the Metaverse, an online digital world where people can interact with eachother and with the computerized environment to do a variety of activities as an extensionof reality.
Part of the emerging DARQ technologies, XR is a building block in many companies’ innovation
strategies, with the power to significantly transform industries.162 With the combined global
spending in AR and VR expected to reach USD 160 billion by 2023163, and repercussion in both
leisure and business sectors, this is a trend with rapidly increasing significance.

159.

A Review of Extended Reality (XR) Technologies for Manufacturing Training (Technologies, 2020)

160.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

161.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)162. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
163.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

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Where to from here?

拡張現実
拡張現実 (XR) は，コンピューター技術とウェアラブル デバイスを使用して，現実と仮想を組み合わせた環境を指します。 XR テクノロジーは，仮想現実，拡張現実，複合現実 (それぞれ VR，AR，MR)で構成されています。159 VR，AR，MR のそれぞれは，メタバースを含む XR に到達するための特定のテクノロジーを定義します。 VR は完全にデジタル化された没入型であり，AR は現実世界の見方をデジタル的に強化することができ，最近では，MR は仮想世界と現実世界が共存するハイブリッ
ド現実を作り出すことができます。
XR テクノロジーは，デジタル空間内で新しいモードのソーシャル インタラクションへのアクセスを提供することで，人々の交流，生活，仕事の方法を変革しています。160,161 最終的な段階は，人々が互いに対話し，現実の延長としてさまざまな活動を行うためにコンピューター化された環境と対話できるオ
ンラインデジタル世界であるメタバースの完全な開発です。
新興の DARQ テクノロジーの一部である XR は，多くの企業のイノベーション戦略の構成要素であり，業界を大きく変革する力を備えています。162 AR と VR を合わせた世界の支出は 2023 年までに 1,600 億米ドルに達すると予想されており163，レジャーとビジネスの両方のセクターに影響が及ぶ
ため，このトレンドは急速に重要性を増しています。

159.

A Review of Extended Reality (XR) Technologies for Manufacturing Training (Technologies, 2020)

160.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

161.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)162.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

163.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：5G,
サービスのオンライン化, インターネットの普及, 経験経済

The experience economy: from ownership to usershipin the digital space

AR and VR immersive technologies have been in use for sometime already (especially, in online games), but their application isincreasingly business-focused, helping the field’s rapid expansion.
Epic Games’ Unreal Engine for example, used in the popular Fortnite
game, created an online, digital space for users to exchange andparticipate in a multiplicity of experiences. This gaming engine
can also be used for business purposes, with architectural firms
using it to showcase their designs to clients, or Finnair using it tobuild a digital twin of Helsinki Airport for staff training purposes,
for example.164
The uptake of XR technology in business can be linked
back to other societal trends, such as the development of‘The experience economy’. The experience economy is slowly
replacing consumerism, where businesses sell experiences rather
than a product. The customer is fully involved in the customization
process, shifting its role from ownership to usership.165 With XR
technologies becoming cheaper and more sophisticated, theopportunities for customization are endless, allowing users to164.

immerse themselves in places or situations, whether it is to shop,
interact, work, or travel.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the need tomove everyday experiences to the digital space in order to limit
physical interactions, and technologies are rapidly evolving tooffer virtual access to a multiplicity of experiences in response tomobility restrictions and isolation policies such as teleworking.166
With such technologies, customers can try on outfits in the virtual
space and see themselves from multiple angles, or travel and workfrom the comfort of their armchairs. XR technologies thus open thedoor to alternative approaches to address current social needs,
from wellness tourism167 to training opportunities and even criminal
rehabilitation, simulating real life scenarios to prepare offenders
before their reintegration into society.168

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

165.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

166.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

167.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

168.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

エクスペリエンス エコノミー： デジタル空間におけるオーナーシップからユーザーシップへ
AR と VR の没入型テクノロジーは，(特にオンライン ゲームで) かなり前から使用されていますが，そのアプリケーションはますますビジネスに重点を置いており，この分野の急速な拡大を後押ししています。たとえば，
人気ゲームの Fortnite で使用されている Epic Games の Unreal
Engine は，ユーザーがさまざまな体験を交換して参加できるオンラインのデジタル空間を作成しました。このゲーム エンジンは，ビジネス目的でも使用できます。たとえば，建築会社が設計をクライアントに紹介するために使用したり，フィンランド航空がスタッフのトレーニング目的でヘルシンキ空港のデジタル ツインを構築するために使用したりしています。164
ビジネスにおける XR テクノロジーの採用は，「エクスペリエンス エコノミー」の発展など，他の社会的トレンドに関連している可能性があります。エクスペリエンス エコノミーは，消費主義に徐々に取って代わりつつあり，そこでは企業は製品ではなく経験を販売します。顧客はカスタマイズ プロセスに完全に関与し，その役割をオーナーシップからユーザーシップに移行します。165 XR テクノロジーがより安価になり，より高度になるにつれて，カスタマイズの機会は無限に広がり，ユーザーはショッピン

164.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

165.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

166.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

167.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

168.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Technology

グ，交流，仕事，旅行など，場所や状況に没頭できるようになります。
さらに，COVID-19 のパンデミックにより，物理的なやり取りを制限するために日常の体験をデジタル空間に移行する必要性が加速しており，テレワークなどのモビリティの制限や隔離ポリシーに対応して，さまざまな体
験への仮想アクセスを提供するテクノロジーが急速に進化しています。166
このようなテクノロジーを使用すると，顧客は仮想空間で衣装を試着し，さまざまな角度から自分自身を見ることができます。また，快適な肘掛け椅
子で旅行や仕事をすることもできます。したがって，XR テクノロジーは，
現在の社会的ニーズに対応するための代替アプローチへの扉を開きます。これには，ウェルネス ツーリズム167 からトレーニングの機会，さらには犯罪者の更生まで，犯罪者が社会に再統合する前に準備するための実際のシナリオをシミュレートします。168

Innovation in communication and visual technologies
accelerating the uptake of XR technologies

This expansion in XR use is driven largely by innovations incommunication and visual technologies that are improving theuser experience and making these technologies more popular andaccessible to the general public. Key enabling developments include
portability, high speed Internet access, graphic and sound quality
as well as GPS data, which increases the potential reach of thosetechnologies.169 With the evolution of wearable XR technologies suchas smart-glasses or contact lenses that include quality sensors,
users can experience their surroundings with additional computergenerated inputs that appear real.170

The most recent devices, such as the HoloLens 2 (a pair of MR
smart-glasses developed and manufactured by Microsoft), cannow understand the characteristics of items in their field of vision
rather than simply attesting that they exist, which means they canidentify and warn the wearer of hazards rather than simply point
to the presence of objects.172 The extensive applications of suchtechnologies lead experts to predict a wide increase in the use of
VR and AR at an annual growth rate of over 80% over the next few
years.173 In fact, in the next few decades, electronic communicationand information sharing using AR and VR, such as livestream orvideos, are expected to take over from traditional text and images.174

In manufacturing, for example, the development of such sensors andAR glasses can help workers with efficiency and safety by giving
hands-free access to user manuals and audio instructions, helping
them locate items, tracking stock in real time or warning the wearerof equipment needing maintenance or showing defects.171

169.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)170.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)171.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)172.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

173.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)174.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

XRテクノロジーの取り込みを加速するコミュニケーションおよびビジュアルテクノロジーの革新

ラス) などの最新のデバイスは，アイテムが存在することを単に証明する

この XR の使用の拡大は，ユーザー エクスペリエンスを向上させ，これらのではなく，視野内のアイテムの特性を理解できるようになりました。つのテクノロジーをより普及させ，一般の人々がアクセスできるようにする，まり，物体の存在を単に指摘するのではなく，着用者に危険を警告しま通信および視覚テクノロジーの革新によって大きく促進されています。重す。172 このようなテクノロジーの広範なアプリケーションにより，専門家

要な開発には，移植性，高速インターネット アクセス，グラフィックスとサは，今後数年間で 80% 以上の年間成長率で VR と AR の使用が大幅ウンドの品質，および GPS データが含まれ，これらのテクノロジーの潜在に増加すると予測しています。173 実際，今後数十年で，ライブストリーム

的な到達範囲が拡大します。169 高品質のセンサーを搭載したスマートグ

やビデオなど，AR や VR を使用した電子通信や情報共有が，従来のテラスやコンタクトレンズなどのウェアラブル XR テクノロジーの進化により，キストや画像に取って代わると予想されています。174

ユーザーはコンピューターで生成された追加の入力を使用して周囲を体験できるようになりました。170
たとえば，製造業では，このようなセンサーや AR グラスの開発により，ユーザー マニュアルや音声による指示にハンズフリーでアクセスできるようになり，アイテムの位置を特定したり，リアルタイムで在庫を追跡したり，機器の着用者に，メンテナンスが必要であるとか，欠陥を示すとかの警告をしたりすることで，労働者が効率的かつ安全に作業できるようになりま
す。171

169.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)170.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)171.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)172.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

173.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)174.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Technology

HoloLens 2 (Microsoft によって開発および製造された MR スマート グ

Risks

The increasing use of cyberspace to perform everyday activities
could give more influence and authority to non-traditional actors,
possibly leading to the creation of new forms of authority beyond
the individual countries.175 Already, such groups can use social media
to exert significant societal pressures – one example of this is how
users of Reddit (a social news aggregation, Web content rating
and discussion Website), managed to shake the stock market with‘meme-stocks’ and the coordinated buying of GameStop stocks byretail investors in 2021.176
In a pessimistic scenario, expanding the competitive space to thedigital realm could also provide a new medium for conflict andwarfare, which is already seen with the rise in cyber-terrorism. The
virtual arena and XR technologies provide increasing opportunities
for misinformation and propaganda, as well as avenues for cyberattacks and hybrid forms of conflict.177

as the risk of misinformation and bias. Examples of fake news anddeepfake videos using deep learning technologies highlight the risks
of XR innovations and the increasing difficulty to distinguish what isreal and what is digitally constructed.178,179
Extended realities technologies such as AR and VR, and the constantevolution of the digital space towards the Metaverse is a promising
field that can further user experience in business and leisure alike.
Additional trending technologies such as the roll out of ‘5G’ willfurther support the development of XR experiences, by enabling
more people to be connected at the same time to enjoy a quality
experience with minimal latency.180
With other DARQ technologies, it holds the power to radically modify
how we behave and interact and will be directly dependent on
innovation in communication and visual technologies, with which it
shares similar risks that must be addressed.

Another risk is that XR technologies might complicate pre-existing
issues linked with digital technologies and social media, such as
those related to the protection of identity and ownership, as well
175.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

176.

The Reddit revolt. GameStop and the impact of social media on institutional investors (The TRADE, 2021)

177.

Global Strategic trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)178.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

179.

When seeing is no longer believing. Inside the Pentagon’s race against deepfake videos (CNN Business, 2019)180.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

リスク
日常の活動を実行するためのサイバースペースの使用が増えると，伝統

とえば，ID や所有権の保護に関連する問題や，誤情報や偏見のリスクなど的でないアクターにより多くの影響力と権限が与えられ，個々の国を超えたがあります。深層学習技術を使用したフェイク ニュースやディープフェイク ビ

新しい形の権限が作成される可能性があります。175 すでに，そのようなグデオの例は，XR イノベーションのリスクと，何が現実で何がデジタルで構築

ループはソーシャル メディアを使用して重大な社会的圧力を及ぼすことがされたものかを区別することがますます困難になっていることを浮き彫りにしできます。その一例として，Reddit (ソーシャル ニュースの集約，Web コンています。178,179

テンツの評価およびディスカッションの Web サイト) のユーザーが，「meme-stocks」と株式市場を揺さぶり， 2021 年には個人投資家による

AR や VR などの拡張現実技術，メタバースに向けたデジタル空間の絶え間なGameStop 株の協調購入がありました。176

い進化は，ビジネスとレジャーの両方でユーザー エクスペリエンスを向上させる

悲観的なシナリオでは，競争空間をデジタル領域に拡大することで，サイバ遅延で質の高い体験を楽しむために同時により多くの人々が接続できるようにーテロの台頭ですでに見られるように，紛争や戦争の新たな媒体を提供すすることで，XR 体験の開発をさらにサポートします。180

有望な分野です。 「5G」の展開などの追加のトレンドテクノロジーは，最小限のることもできます。仮想アリーナと XR テクノロジーは，偽情報とプロパガン
ダの機会を増やすだけでなく，サイバー攻撃やハイブリッド形式の紛争への道を提供します。177

他の DARQ テクノロジーでは，私たちの行動や相互作用の方法を根本的に変更する力を持っており，対処しなければならない同様のリスクを共有するコミュ
ニケーションおよびビジュアル テクノロジーの革新に直接依存することになりま

もう 1 つのリスクは，XR テクノロジーが，デジタル テクノロジーやソーシャ

す。

ル メディアに関連する既存の問題を複雑にする可能性があることです。た175.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

176.

The Reddit revolt. GameStop and the impact of social media on institutional investors (The TRADE, 2021)

177.

Global Strategic trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)178.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

179.

When seeing is no longer believing. Inside the Pentagon’s race against deepfake videos (CNN Business, 2019)180.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 24, Computer graphics, image processing and environmental
data representation• ISO - Putting the real world back into
online education• ISO - Silent game changers of the tech revolution• ISO/IEC 14772-1:1997, Information technology – Computer graphics and image processing – The
Virtual Reality Modeling Language – Part 1: Functional specification and UTF-8 encoding• ISO/IEC 14772-2:2004, Information technology – Computer graphics and image processing – The
Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML) – Part 2: External authoring interface (EAI)• ISO/IEC 18038:2020, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Sensor representation in mixed and augmented reality• ISO/IEC 18039:2019, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Mixed and augmented reality (MAR) reference model• ISO/IEC 18040:2019, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Live actor and entity representation in mixed and augmented
reality (MAR)݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 29, Coding of audio, picture, multimedia, and hypermedia information• ISO/IEC 23000-13:2017, Information technology – Multimedia application format (MPEG-A) – Part 13:
Augmented reality application format

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 36, Information technology for learning, education, and training• ISO/IEC TR 23842-1:2020, Information technology for learning, education and training – Human factor
guidelines for virtual reality content – Part 1: Considerations when using VR content• ISO/IEC TR 23842-2:2020, Information technology for learning, education, and training – Human
factor guidelines for virtual reality content – Part 2: Considerations when making VR content• ISO/IEC TR 23843:2020, Information technology for learning, education, and training – Catalogue
model for virtual, augmented and mixed reality content‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 24, Computer graphics, image processing and environmental data
representation• ISO/IEC 14772-1:1997, Information technology – Computer graphics and image processing – The
Virtual Reality Modeling Language – Part 1: Functional specification and UTF-8 encoding• ISO/IEC 14772-2:2004, Information technology – Computer graphics and image processing – The
Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML) – Part 2: External authoring interface (EAI)• ISO/IEC 18038:2020, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Sensor representation in mixed and augmented reality• ISO/IEC 18039:2019, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Mixed and augmented reality (MAR) reference model• ISO/IEC 18040:2019, Information technology – Computer graphics, image processing andenvironmental data representation – Live actor and entity representation in mixed and augmented
reality (MAR)݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 29, Coding of audio, picture, multimedia, and hypermedia information• ISO/IEC 23000-13:2017, Information technology – Multimedia application format (MPEG-A) – Part 13:
Augmented reality application format

݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 36, Information technology for learning, education, and training• ISO/IEC TR 23842-1:2020, Information technology for learning, education and training – Human factor
guidelines for virtual reality content – Part 1: Considerations when using VR content• ISO/IEC TR 23842-2:2020, Information technology for learning, education, and training – Human
factor guidelines for virtual reality content – Part 2: Considerations when making VR content• ISO/IEC TR 23843:2020, Information technology for learning, education, and training – Catalogue
model for virtual, augmented and mixed reality content‹›

Technology

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Putting the real world back into
online education• ISO - Silent game changers of the tech revolution

Blockchain

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Cybervulnerability, Data privacy,
Edge computing

Blockchain technology is a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), which provides
unprecedented potential for removing intermediaries by allowing participating parties toexchange not only information but also value (money, contracts, property rights) without
necessitating trust in specific, pre-determined intermediaries such as banks or servers.181,182,183
This is because DLT enables transaction data to be validated within a system wherein control
is distributed among multiple, independent participants and stored in a manner that is tamperevident and immutable by design. By ensuring system-wide agreement about the state of
the ledger, DLT can be used to promote privacy, safety, transparency, and integrity of thetransaction process.184,185
Distributed ledgers open up many new possibilities; for example, for monitoring the supply
chain or managing digital rights. DLT is therefore regarded as a central enabler for digital, selfexecuting contracts, so-called smart contracts.186
Many industry leaders have already achieved significant business benefits, including
greater transparency, enhanced security, improved traceability, increased efficiency, fastertransactions, and reduced costs by DLTs.187 Financial services and banking are the most
181.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development, 2019)182. Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)183. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)
184.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)185.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

186.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)187.

Top five blockchain benefits transforming your industry (IBM, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

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Where to from here?

ブロックチェーン
ブロックチェーン技術は，分散型台帳技術 (DLT) の一形態であり，参加者が情報だけでなく価値 (お金，契約，財産権) を交換することを可能にすることで，銀行やサーバーなどの仲介者を排除する前例のない可能性を提供します。これは，DLT を使用すると，システム内でトランザクション データを検証できるためです。181,182,183 このシステムでは，制御が複数の独立した参加者に分散され，設計上，開封明
示機能付きで変更不可能な方法で保存されます。台帳の状態に関するシステム全体の合意を確実にすることにより，DLT を使用して，トランザクション プロセスのプライバシー，安全性，透明性，および整合性を促進できます。184,185
分散台帳は，多くの新しい可能性を開きます。たとえば，サプライ チェーンの監視やデジタル著作権の管理などです。したがって，DLT は，デジタルの自己実行契約，いわゆるスマート コントラクトの中心的なイネーブラーと見なされます。186
多くの業界リーダーは，透明性の向上，セキュリティの強化，トレーサビリティの向上，効率の向上，トラ
ンザクションの高速化，DLT によるコストの削減など，ビジネス上の大きな恩恵をすでに受けています。
187 金融サービスと銀行は，DLT サービス プロバイダーが最も頻繁に目標とするセクターです。明らか

181.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development, 2019)182.

Digital Megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)183.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

184.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)185.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

186.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)187.

Top five blockchain benefits transforming your industry (IBM, 2018)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド： 人工知能, サイバー脆弱性, データ保護, エッジ
コンピューティング

frequently targeted sectors for DLT service providers. Capital markets
are clearly dominating, followed by insurance, and trade finance.188
Research from Gartner says that 300 million blockchain transactions
were processed through the end of 2017 and assets worth morethan USD 270 billion were being managed using DLT.189,190

But blockchain can be used for a much wider variety of applications
beyond cryptocurrency and the financial services and banking
sectors. Although much focus is still put on monetary uses, there isan increasing interest in non-monetary uses and applications, e.g.
digital identity, healthcare, supply chain, and energy.195 For example:

Blockchain is best known as the technology behind cryptocurrencies(see ‘New business models’)191,192, but is increasingly known for its
role facilitating the trading of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). While
cryptocurrencies (like physical money) are ‘fungible’, meaning they
are equal in value and can be traded or exchanged for one another(one dollar is always worth another dollar; one Bitcoin is always equal
to another Bitcoin), NFTs each have their own digital signature thatmakes it impossible for NFTs to be exchanged, as no two are equal(hence, non-fungible).193 NFTs are digital assets with programmed
scarcity, and as such are ideal to represent ownership of unique
virtual assets and digital identities in Web 3.0 and the Metaverse.194••

In West Africa and Kenya, blockchain has enabled theefficient verification of property records and transactions, andexpanded access to credit in some previously informal sectorsof the economy.196
The London-based start-up Resonance uses blockchain toautomate the transfer of product information between brands,
manufacturers, and retailers. According to Resonance, over 30%
of product data in product catalogues is wrong, with each error
costing an average of USD 60 to fix. The innovative technology
ensures that only trustworthy information is forwarded and isdone so anonymously. The recipients first check the data sheets

188. Global blockchain benchmarking study (University of Cambridge, 2017)189.

Will Blockchain Disrupt Financial Services (Gartner, 2017)

190.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)191.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)

192. Understanding the DNA of DARQ (Accenture, 2019)193.

What Is An NFT? Non-Fungible Tokens Explained (Forbes, 2022)

194.

Significance of NFTs in Web 3.0 and the Metaverse (Selfkey, 2022)

195.

Global blockchain benchmarking study (University of Cambridge, 2017)196.

Blockchain Opens Up Kenya’s $20 Billion Informal Economy (Bloomberg, 2018)‹
Foreword

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に資本市場が優勢で，保険，貿易金融がこれに続いています。188 Gartner

しかし，ブロックチェーンは，暗号通貨や金融サービス，銀行セクターを超えの調査によると，2017 年末までに 3 億件のブロックチェーン トランザクショて，はるかに幅広いアプリケーションに使用できます。依然として金銭的なンが処理され，2,700 億米ドルを超える資産が DLT を使用して管理されて用途に多くの焦点が当てられていますが，非金銭的な用途やアプリケーシ

いました。189,190

ョンへの関心が高まっています。たとえば，デジタルアイデンティティ，ヘル
スケア，サプライチェーン，エネルギーなどです。195 以下，例を示します：

ブロックチェーンは，暗号通貨の背後にある技術として最もよく知られていますが (「新しいビジネス モデル」を参照)191,192，代替不可能なトークン (NFT)の取引を促進する役割で知られるようになっています。暗号通貨は，(物理的なお金のように) 「代替可能」であり，価値が等しく，互いに取引または交換できることを意味しますが (1ドルは常に1ドルの価値があり，1 ビットコイ
ンは常に1ビットコインと等価)，その一方でNFT にはそれぞれ独自の特徴••

西アフリカとケニアでは，ブロックチェーンによって資産の記録と取引の効率的な検証が可能になり，以前は非公式だった経済部門で信用へのアクセスが拡大しました。196
ロンドンを拠点とする新興企業の Resonance は，ブロックチェーンを使用して，ブランド，メーカー，小売業者間の製品情報の転送を自動化してがあります。 2 つとして同じものは存在しないため(したがって，代替不可

います。 Resonance によると，製品カタログの製品データの 30% 以上能)，NFT を交換するのは不可能です。193 独自のデジタル署名NFT は，希が誤っていて，各誤りの修正に平均 60 米ドルの費用がかかります。革少性がプログラムされたデジタル資産であり，Web 3.0 とメタバースで一意

新的な技術により，信頼できる情報のみが匿名で転送されます。受領者の仮想資産とデジタル ID の所有権を表すのに理想的です。194

188.

Global blockchain benchmarking study (University of Cambridge, 2017)189.

Will Blockchain Disrupt Financial Services (Gartner, 2017)

190.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)191.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)192.

Understanding the DNA of DARQ (Accenture, 2019)193.

What Is An NFT? Non-Fungible Tokens Explained (Forbes, 2022)

194.

Significance of NFTs in Web 3.0 and the Metaverse (Selfkey, 2022)

195.

Global blockchain benchmarking study (University of Cambridge, 2017)196.

Blockchain Opens Up Kenya’s $20 Billion Informal Economy (Bloomberg, 2018)‹›

Technology

••they receive before integrating information into their internal
systems – such as for material requirements planning.197
In Switzerland Streamr has developed an anti-theft sticker
that protects valuable goods without revealing their location.
The sticker is fitted with an array of sensors that identify
issues such as location, acceleration, and temperature. The
data collected in this way is managed by Streamr’s blockchain
network and based on smart contracts. The stickers canbe used in the transport of goods, for example. Customers
would only find out where they are currently located if theforwarder violates the previously agreed terms and conditionsof transportation.198
In Australia Power Ledger has developed a blockchain-based
platform that enables users to invest in major, renewableenergy projects. This allows users who want to invest in the
expansion of renewable energy to buy small stakes in projects
and accelerate their growth. The first offers are parts of acommercial solar park and a grid-connected battery storage
project in Australia, which will be offered via cryptocurrencies
in the blockchain.199

197.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)

198.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)199.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)•

And CSIRO has explored using blockchain to verify foodprovenance, so consumers can know exactly where theirfood came from and what has happened to it at each step of
the chain.200

According to Gartner’s value forecast for the blockchain business201,
after the first phase of a few high-profile successes in 2018-2021,
there will be larger, focused investments and many more successfulmodels in 2022-2026. And these are expected to explode in
2027-2030, reaching more than USD 3 trillion globally.202 In 2018,
China alone accounted for nearly 50% of all patent applications
for technology families relating to blockchains, and, together
with the United States, represents more than 75% of all suchpatent applications.203

200. Is your honey faking it? (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2018)201.

Forecast: Blockchain Business Value, Worldwide, 2017-2030 (Gartner, 2017)202. World Trade Report 2018. The future of world trade: How Digital Technologies are Transforming Global Commerce (World trade Organisation, 2018)
203. Patent Analytics Report on Blockchain Innovation (IP Australia, 2018)‹
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は，資材所要量計画などの社内システムに情報を統合する前に，まず受け取ったデータシートを確認します。 197•• スイスでは，Streamr が盗難防止ステッカーを開発しました。これは，貴重品の場所を明らかにせずに保護します。ステッカーには，位置，加速度，温度などの問題を特定する一連のセンサーが取り付けられています。このようにして収集されたデータは，Streamr のブロックチェ
ーン ネットワークによって管理され，スマート コントラクトに基づいています。ステッカーは，商品の輸送などに使用できます。フォワーダーが以前に合意した輸送条件に違反した場合にのみ，顧客は現在の場所を知ることができます。198• オーストラリアでは，Power Ledger がブロックチェーン ベースのプラッ

トフォームを開発し，ユーザーが主要な再生可能エネルギー プロジェ

CSIRO はブロックチェーンを使用して食品の出所を検証することを検討しており，消費者は食品がどこから来て，チェーンの各段階で何が起こったのかを正確に知ることができます。200

ブロックチェーン ビジネスに対する Gartner の価値予測によると201，2018 年
から 2021 年にかけて注目を集めたいくつかの成功の第 1 段階の後，2022
年から 2026 年にかけて，より大規模で集中的な投資が行われ，さらに多くの成功モデルが登場するでしょう。そして，これらは 2027 年から 2030 年にかけて爆発的に増加し，全世界で 3 兆米ドル以上に達すると予想されています。
2022018 年には，中国だけでブロックチェーンに関連するテクノロジー ファミリーの全特許出願の 50% 近くを占め，米国と合わせて，そのような全特許出願の 75% 以上を占めています。203

クトに投資できるようにしました。これにより，再生可能エネルギーの拡大に投資したいユーザーは，プロジェクトの株式を少し購入して成長を加速させることができます。最初のオファーは，ブロックチェーンの
暗号通貨を介して提供されるオーストラリアの商用ソーラーパークとグリッドに接続されたバッテリーストレージプロジェクトの一部です。199

197.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)

198.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)199.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)200.

Is your honey faking it? (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2018)201.

Forecast: Blockchain Business Value, Worldwide, 2017-2030 (Gartner, 2017)202.

World Trade Report 2018. The future of world trade: How Digital Technologies are Transforming Global Commerce (World trade Organisation, 2018)203.

Patent Analytics Report on Blockchain Innovation (IP Australia, 2018)‹›

Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 307, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies• ISO - Getting big on blockchain• ISO/DTR 3242, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Use cases• ISO - Blockchain technology set to growfurther with international standards
in pipeline• ISO 23257:2022, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Reference architecture• ISO/TS 23635:2022, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Guidelines for governance• ISO - Blockchain’s technology of trust

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin
• ISO/IEC TR 30176:2021, Internet of Things (IoT) – Integration of IoT and DLT/blockchain: Use cases

݁ ISO/TC 68/SC 2, Financial Services, security• ISO/AWI TR 24374, Information technology – Security techniques – DLT and Blockchain for
Financial Services‹
Foreword

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Technology

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Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 307, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies• ISO/DTR 3242, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Use cases• ISO 23257:2022, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Reference architecture• ISO/TS 23635:2022, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies – Guidelines for governance݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin

• ISO/IEC TR 30176:2021, Internet of Things (IoT) – Integration of IoT and DLT/blockchain: Use cases݁◌ ISO/TC 68/SC 2, Financial Services, security• ISO/AWI TR 24374, Information technology – Security techniques – DLT and Blockchain for
Financial Services‹›

Technology

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Getting big on blockchain• ISO - Blockchain technology set to growfurther with international standards
in pipeline• ISO - Blockchain’s technology of trust

Edge computing
Cloud technology allows users to access scalable technology services immediately via theInternet’s existing network, promoting lower costs for infrastructure and inventory, reducing
overheads, and creating leaps in computing power and speed, data storage, and bandwidth.204
However, it has one major problem – the latency (time lag or communication delay overthe network) that results from the physical distance between users and the data centres
hosting cloud-based services. This problem can be overcome using Edge computing; this is adifferent technology from cloud computing and its relevance is set to increase as the ‘Internetof Things’ becomes ubiquitous and the sheer amount of data that needs to be moved andprocessed increases exponentially.205

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Blockchain,
Internet of Things, Spreadof the Internet

This is because edge computing allows users to overcome the latency issue by performing
computations near or at the source of data – data is processed directly on-site using
dedicated hardware. Edge thus provides an important advantage when processing timesensitive data, or when data processing is needed in a remote location where there is limited
connectivity. In future, edge computing will be important for health care, automotive andmanufacturing applications, because of the increased speed and security of processing data
directly on devices (as opposed to sending it into the Cloud).206,207
Aside from reducing latency, edge computing has several other advantages, such as saving
bandwidth and network costs, and enhancing security and privacy.208 Microsoft, for example,
204. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)
205. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)206. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)
207. 2021 Tech Trends Report (Future Today Institute, 2021)
208. 3 Advantages (And 1 Disadvantage) of Edge Computing (Forbes, 2020)‹
Foreword

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Where to from here?

エッジ コンピューティング
クラウド技術により，ユーザーはインターネットの既存のネットワークを介して拡張性のある技術サービ
スにすぐにアクセスできるようになり，インフラストラクチャーと在庫のコストを削減し，オーバーヘッドを削減し，計算能力と速度，データ ストレージ，およびバンド幅を飛躍的に向上させます。204 ただし，これには 1 つの大きな問題があります。それは，ユーザーとクラウドベースのサービスをホストするデータセンターとの間の物理的な距離に起因する遅延 (ネットワーク上のタイム ラグまたは通信遅延) です。この問題は，エッジ コンピューティングを使用して解決できます。これはクラウド コンピューティングとは異なるテクノロジーであり，「モノのインターネット」がユビキタスになり，移動および処理が必要な膨大な量のデータが指数関数的に増加するにつれて，その適用可能性は高まります。205
これは，エッジ コンピューティングを使用すると，データ ソースの近くまたはソースで計算を実行すること
により，ユーザーが待機時間の問題を克服できるためです。データは，専用のハードウェアを使用してオンサイトで直接処理されます。したがって，エッジは，時間に敏感なデータを処理する場合，または接続が制限されている遠隔地でデータ処理が必要な場合に重要な利点を提供します。将来的には，(クラウドに送信するのではなく) デバイスで直接データを処理する速度とセキュリティが向上するため，エッジ コンピューティングはヘルスケア，自動車，および製造アプリケーションにとって重要になるでしょう。
206,207

エッジ コンピューティングには，待機時間の短縮以外にも，バンド幅とネットワーク コストの節約，セキュ
リティとプライバシーの強化など，いくつかの利点があります。208 たとえば，Microsoft は，エッジ コンピ

204.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

205.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)

206.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)

207.

2021 Tech Trends Report (Future Today Institute, 2021)

208.

3 Advantages (And 1 Disadvantage) of Edge Computing (Forbes, 2020)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：人工知能,
ブロックチェーン, モノのイン
ターネット, インターネットの普及claims that edge computing enables more industries to safely use
the cloud and still meet their compliance requirements.209 McKinsey
finds that the industries with the most edge computing use cases
are travel, transportation, and logistics; energy; retail; healthcare;and utilities.210 Here are just a few examples of applications ofedge computing:•••‘Autonomous vehicles’ can gather the data produced by vehicle
sensors and cameras, process it, analyze it and make decisions
in just a few milliseconds to keep vehicles and pedestrians safe.
Intelligent transportation systems enable passenger information
systems, vehicle monitoring and tracking systems, intelligent
surveillance of transportation vehicles and stations, intelligent
traffic management systems and more. Fleet management
allows organizations to intelligently manage their vehicle fleetswith a variety of rich information.
Remote monitoring of oil and gas assets can be deployed inoil and gas fields where process conditions (such as extreme
temperature variations) can be effectively and safely monitored
and managed offsite.211•

Patient conditions can be tracked in real time and treatment canbe improved through better patient treatment compliance andearly identification of health complications.212

According to a report by Grand View Research, the global edge
computing market size is anticipated to reach USD 61.14 billion by
2028, exhibiting at a CAGR of 38.4% over the forecast period.213

209. Edge Computing. What it is and how it’s a game-changer (CMS WIRE, 2018)
210. New demand, new markets: What edge computing means for hardware companies (McKinsey, 2018)
211.

Examples of Edge Computing (Premio, 2021)

212. New demand, new markets: What edge computing means for hardware companies (McKinsey, 2018)
213. Edge Computing Market Growth & Trends (Grand View Research, 2021)‹
Foreword

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ューティングによって，より多くの業界がクラウドを安全に使用し，コンプラ
イアンス要件を満たすことができるようになると主張しています。 209
McKinsey は，エッジ コンピューティングのユース ケースが最も多い業界
は，旅行，運輸，物流；エネルギー；小売；健康管理；および公共事業であることを見出しました。210 以下は，エッジ コンピューティングの適用例のほんの一部です。
• 「自動運転車」は，車両センサーとカメラによって生成されたデータを収集，処理，分析し，車両と歩行者の安全を維持するためにわずか数ミ

リ秒で決定を下すことができます。
• インテリジェント交通システムは，乗客情報システム，車両監視および追跡システム，輸送車両と駅のインテリジェント監視，インテリジェント
交通管理システムなどを可能にします。フリートマネジメントにより，組
織はさまざまな豊富な情報を使用して車両フリートをインテリジェントに管理できます。
• 石油およびガス資産のリモート監視は，プロセス条件 (極端な温度変化など) をオフサイトで効果的かつ安全に監視および管理できる油およびガス田に展開できます。211

209.

Edge Computing. What it is and how it’s a game-changer (CMS WIRE, 2018)210.

New demand, new markets: What edge computing means for hardware companies (McKinsey, 2018)

211.

Examples of Edge Computing (Premio, 2021)

212.

New demand, new markets: What edge computing means for hardware companies (McKinsey, 2018)

213.

Edge Computing Market Growth & Trends (Grand View Research, 2021)‹›

Technology•

患者の状態をリアルタイムで追跡し，患者の治療コンプライアンスを改善し，合併症を早期に特定することで，治療を改善できます。212

Grand View Research のレポートによると，世界のエッジ コンピューテ
ィング市場規模は 2028 年までに 611 億 4000 万米ドルに達すると予想されており，予測期間全体で 38.4% の CAGR を示しています。213

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 38, Cloud computing and distributed platforms• ISO - Underneath the cloud• ISO/IEC 19944-1:2020, Cloud computing and distributed platforms – Data flow, data categories
and data use – Part 1: Fundamentals• ISO - In the cloud• ISO/IEC 22624:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Taxonomy based data handlingfor cloud services• ISO/IEC TS 23167:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Common technologies
and techniques• ISO/IEC TR 23188:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Edge computing landscape݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin
• ISO/IEC TR 30164:2020, Internet of things (IoT) – Edge computing‹
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関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 38, Cloud computing and distributed platforms• ISO/IEC 19944-1:2020, Cloud computing and distributed platforms – Data flow, data categories
and data use – Part 1: Fundamentals• ISO/IEC 22624:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Taxonomy based data handlingfor cloud services• ISO/IEC TS 23167:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Common technologies
and techniques• ISO/IEC TR 23188:2020, Information technology – Cloud computing – Edge computing landscape݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin

• ISO/IEC TR 30164:2020, Internet of things (IoT) – Edge computing‹›

Technology

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Underneath the cloud• ISO - In the cloudQuantum technologies

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Autonomousvehicles, Cybervulnerability, Services
moving online, Spread of
the Internet

Quantum technologies rely on the principles of quantum physics and cover a broad range
of applied areas like quantum communication, quantum computing, quantum cryptography,
quantum imaging, quantum metrology, quantum sensors, and quantum simulation.
Quantum computing, in particular, could be a game changer and revolutionize the way weperform calculations.214 Quantum computers are the next generation of computers, which
operate based on the laws of quantum mechanics and are made up of quantum circuits.
The fundamental building-block of the quantum computer is the quantum bit or ‘qubit’, thequantum analogue of the binary digit or classical computing bit. The qubit can exist in two
states (analogous to the ‘1’ and ‘0’ of the classical bit) as well as a superposition state (where
it is both ‘1’ and ‘0’ at the same time). Because qubits can exist in multiple states at the sametime, the quantum computer has the potential to be a hundred million times faster than a
traditional computer. With its help, databases can be searched faster, complex systems suchas molecular-level behaviour can be modelled and simulated to make better medicines andtoday’s encryption technologies can be strengthened or cracked.215,216
In the future, it will be possible to book and obtain quantum computing power via the Cloudfrom providers such as Amazon and IBM, triggering the era of hypercomputation.217

214. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)
215.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)216.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

217.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)‹
Foreword

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量子技術
量子技術は量子物理学の原理に依存しており，量子通信，量子コンピューティング，量子暗号，量子イメージング，量子計測，量子センサー，量子シミュレーションなどの幅広い応用分野を対象としています。
特に，量子コンピューティングはゲーム チェンジャーとなり，計算の実行方法に革命をもたらす可能性があります。214 量子コンピューターは，量子力学の法則に基づいて動作し，量子回路で構成される次世代のコンピューターです。量子コンピューターの基本的なビルディング ブロックは，2 進数または従来のコンピューティング ビットの量子アナログである量子ビットまたは「キュービット」です。キュービット
は，2 つの状態 (従来のビットの「1」と「0」に類似) と重ね合わせ状態 (同時に「1」と「0」の両方) で存在できます。量子ビットは同時に複数の状態で存在できるため，量子コンピューターは従来のコンピューターよりも 1 億倍高速になる可能性があります。その助けを借りて，データベースをより高速に検索し，分子レベルの動作などの複雑なシステムをモデル化およびシミュレートして，より優れた医薬品を作成し，今日の暗号化技術を強化または解読することができます。215,216
将来的には，Amazon や IBM などのプロバイダーからクラウドを介して量子コンピューティングのパワーを予約して取得することが可能になり，ハイパーコンピューティングの時代が始まります。217

214.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)

215.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)216.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

217.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)‹›Technology

関連するトレンド： 人口知
能 , 自動運転車, サイバー脆弱性, サービスのオンラ
イン化 , インターネットの普及Even though quantum could be considered the most nascent DARQ
technology, investment has been growing rapidly and this investment
is happening at multiple levels, e.g. from companies through tosupranational institutions and countries. For example, China set
up the world’s first quantum cryptographic network (Jinan Project)in 2017.218 Meanwhile, the European Union launched a quantum
flagship initiative in 2018 covering quantum communication, quantum
simulation, quantum computing, quantum metrology, and sensing
as well as the basic science behind quantum technologies. With abudget of at least EUR  1 billion over ten years, the long-term vision of
the flagship initiative is to develop a quantum Web in Europe, where
quantum computers, simulators and sensors are interconnected via
quantum communication networks.219

uncharted computational territory – and experience a key milestone
on the path towards practical quantum computation.221
Despite the excitement and investment, however, quantum
technologies are in their very early stages, and it will be a longtime before they take over the market. For example, the quantum
computer market of the future is only predicted to grow to about thesize of today’s supercomputer market, worth around USD 50 billion(as compared to today’s market for classical computing devices,which was already worth over USD 1 trillion in 2019) and, even by
2030, none of the smartphones, tablets and computers in use will bequantum powered.222

In terms of private sector advancements, major players like Google,
Alibaba, IBM, Baidu and Hewlett Packard are all busy doing their own
research.220 In 2021, IBM Quantum unveiled the Eagle chip, delivering
127 qubits on a single IBM quantum processor for the first time withbreakthrough packaging technology. Eagle broke the 100‑qubit
processor barrier and is leading quantum computers into a newera. IBM anticipates that, with Eagle, users will be able to explore

218. China set to launch an ‘unhackable’ internet communication (BBC, 2017)
219.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)220. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
221. IBM Unveils Breakthrough 127-Qubit Quantum Processor (IBM, 2021)
222. Quantum computers. The next supercomputers, but not the next laptops (Deloitte, 2018)‹
Foreword

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量子は最も初期の DARQ テクノロジーと見なすことができますが，投資はEagle を使用することで，ユーザーが未知の計算領域を探索し，実用的な急速に拡大しており，この投資は企業から超国家機関や国まで複数のレベ

量子計算への道のりで重要なマイルストーンを体験できるようになると予ルで行われています。たとえば，中国は 2017 年に世界初の量子暗号ネット

想しています。221

ワーク (済南プロジェクト) を設立しました。218 一方，欧州連合は 2018 年に，量子通信，量子シミュレーション，量子コンピューティング，量子計測，センシング，および量子技術の背後にある基礎科学をカバーする量子フラグ
シップ イニシアチブを立ち上げました。 10 年間で少なくとも 10 億ユーロの予算を投じたこのフラグシップ イニシアチブの長期的なビジョンは，量子コン
ピューター，シミュレーター，センサーが量子通信ネットワークを介して相互

しかし，興奮と投資にもかかわらず，量子技術は非常に初期の段階にあり，市場を支配するまでには長い時間がかかるでしょう。たとえば，将来の量子コンピューター市場は，今日のスーパーコンピューター市場とほぼ同じ規模にしか成長しないと予測されており，その規模は約 500 億米ドルにのぼります (2019 年にはすでに 1 兆米ドル以上の価値があった今接続される量子 Web をヨーロッパで開発することです。219

日のクラシック コンピューティング デバイスの市場と比較して)。そして，

民間部門の進歩という点では，Google，Alibaba，IBM，Baidu，Hewlett

ーターのいずれも，量子力を利用したものにはなりません。222

2030 年までには，使用されるスマートフォン，タブレット，およびコンピュ

Packard などの主要企業はすべて，独自の研究に多忙をきわめています。
220 2021 年，IBM Quantum は Eagle チップを発表しました。これは，画期的なパッケージング技術により，初めて単一の IBM 量子プロセッサーで127 キュービットを提供します。 Eagle は 100 キュービット プロセッサーの壁を打ち破り，量子コンピューターを新しい時代へと導きます。 IBM は，

218.

China set to launch an ‘unhackable’ internet communication (BBC, 2017)

219.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)220.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

221.

IBM Unveils Breakthrough 127-Qubit Quantum Processor (IBM, 2021)

222.

Quantum computers. The next supercomputers, but not the next laptops (Deloitte, 2018)‹›

Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards
݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/WG 14, Quantum computing• ISO/IEC CD 4879, Information technology – Quantum computing – Terminology
and vocabulary

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity andprivacy protection• ISO/IEC DIS 23837-1.2, Information technology security techniques – Security
requirements, test and evaluation methods for quantum key distribution –Part 1: Requirements• ISO/IEC CD 23837-2.2, Information technology security techniques – Security
requirements, test and evaluation methods for quantum key distribution –Part 2: Evaluation and testing methods‹
Foreword

Society›

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Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

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Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/WG 14, Quantum computing• ISO/IEC CD 4879, Information technology – Quantum computing – Terminology
and vocabulary݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy
protection• ISO/IEC DIS 23837-1.2, Information technology security techniques – Security
requirements, test and evaluation methods for quantum key distribution –Part 1: Requirements• ISO/IEC CD 23837-2.2, Information technology security techniques – Security
requirements, test and evaluation methods for quantum key distribution –Part 2: Evaluation and testing methods‹›

Technology

Connectivity
Spread of the Internet | 5G | Services moving online
Connectivity acts as one of the drivers towards a more pluralistic world, deepening
connections between businesses, services, and communities across the globe. Mobile, or
wireless, technologies (mobile phones, tablets, and other wireless devices) have become
basic communication tools of everyday life. These enable billions of people around the world
to stay connected. For many worldwide, mobile is the primary – and sometimes the only –channel for accessing the Internet and the benefits it brings.223 The number of connected
devices on the Internet is projected to reach 50 billion any time from 2025 onwards.224
Consumer demands are shaping the development of mobile broadband services. Anticipatedincreases in traffic (estimated to grow between 10 and 100 times in the period from 2020
to 2030), growth in the number of devices and services, as well as demand for enhanced
affordability and user experience, will require innovative solutions.

Related trends: 5G, Artificial
intelligence, Customized products,
Cyber-vulnerability, Diversifying
inequalities, Edge computing,
Extended reality, Internet ofThings, New business models,Quantum technologies, Reinventing
the workplace, Rise of the middle
class, Services moving online, Smartcities, The experience economy,
Young generation influences

Spread of the Internet
The spread of the Internet influences almost all current and future trends, with repercussions
across all sectors, connecting systems and people at an exponential rate and facilitating thedigitalization of businesses and everyday services (see ‘Services moving online’). Indeed,“some estimates indicate that the Internet’s influence over the next 15 years will exceed the223. 5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)
224. 5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)‹
Foreword

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Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

接続性
インターネットの普及 | 5G | オンラインに移行するサービス
接続性は，より多元的な世界への原動力の 1 つとして機能し，世界中のビジネス，サービス，およびコミュニティ間のつながりを深めます。モバイル，つまりワイヤレス テクノロジー (携帯電話，タブレッ
ト，およびその他のワイヤレス デバイス) は，日常生活の基本的なコミュニケーション ツールになっています。これらにより，世界中の何十億もの人々がつながりを保つことができます。世界中の多くの人にとって，モバイルはインターネットにアクセスし，その恩恵を享受するための主要なチャネルであり，場合によっては唯一のチャネルです。223 インターネットに接続されたデバイスの数は，2025 年以降
は常時 500 億に達すると予測されています。224
消費者の需要は，モバイル ブロードバンド サービスの発展を形作っています。予想されるトラフィックの増加 (2020 年から 2030 年の間に 10 倍から 100 倍になると推定される)，デバイスとサービスの数の増加，および手頃な価格とユーザー エクスペリエンスの向上に対する需要には，革新的なソリューションが必要です。

インターネットの普及
インターネットの普及は，現在および将来のほぼすべてのトレンドに影響を与え，すべてのセクターに影響を与え，システムと人々を指数関数的に接続し，ビジネスと日常サービスのデジタル化を促進します (「サービスのオンライン化」を参照)。実際，「今後 15 年間のインターネットの影響力は，50 年間

223.

5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)

224.

5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)‹›Technology

関連するトレンド：5G, 人工知能, カス
タマイズされた製品, サイバー脆弱性,
不平等の多様化, エッジ コンピューテ
ィング, 拡張現実, モノのインターネッ
ト, 新しいビジネスモデル, 量子技術,
職場の再発明, 中産階級の台頭, サービスのオンライン化, スマートシティ,
経験経済, 若い世代の影響impacts of the industrial revolution over the course of 50 years.”225
As more people go online, information can be shared faster andmore widely, increasing cooperation and efficiency at all levels,from connecting businesses, consumers, ideas, and technologies tocoordinating global value chains.226 Although Internet connectivity is
everywhere in both the public and private sphere, the largest growthis in the use of ‘Internet of Things’ connections in the industry sector,
with connected industries expected to account for more than 50% of
global IoT connections by 2025.227
The spread of the Internet and increasingly integrated online
systems make cybersecurity improvements and digital infrastructure
improvement key regulation priorities.228
With increasing Internet connectivity comes increasing ‘Cybervulnerability’. Effective cybersecurity will therefore be vital if society
is to benefit from all the Internet has to offer, without exposure to
threats from malicious (state and non-state) actors who can use
cyberspace as a battle arena, with impacts ranging from outages ofcritical infrastructure, to breaches of industrial or personal data, andelection manipulation.
Meanwhile, improving digital infrastructures will be key to dealing
with the major challenge of unequal access to the Internet. Accessalready varies greatly both within and between countries and, in
least developed countries, only 20% of people use the Internet
largely due to inadequate infrastructure, making it slow and
expensive.229 More generally worldwide, digital divides exist between
rural and urban areas, between genders, and ‘Age groups’. Because
Internet access variability can reinforce pre-existing inequalities,
connectivity differences are one factor that will contribute to defining
the inequalities of tomorrow (see ‘Diversifying inequalities’). Taking
action to address such connectivity differences will ensure morecountries can access global markets and more people can connect −and benefit from technological innovation. Accounting for current
efforts, optimistic scenarios suggest that global Internet penetration
could reach 90% by 2030, with 75% of the world’s population having
mobile connectivity, and 60% having broadband access.230,231

225. Global trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
226. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)227. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)
228. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)229. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)230. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
231. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹
Foreword

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Environment

EconomyPolitics

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Where to from here?

の産業革命の影響力を超えるとの推定もあります」。225 より多くの人々がは，効果的なサイバーセキュリティが不可欠です。

オンラインに移行するにつれて，情報はより速く，より広く共有され，ビジネ
ス，消費者，アイデア，テクノロジーの接続からグローバル バリュー チェー

一方，デジタル インフラストラクチャーの改善は，インターネットへのアクセス

ンの調整まで，あらゆるレベルで協力と効率が向上します。226 インターネの不平等という大きな課題に対処するための鍵となります。アクセスは国内

ット接続はパブリックとプライベートの両方の領域でどこにでもありますが，でも国間でもすでに大きく異なっており，後発開発途上国では，主に不十分

最大の成長は産業部門での「モノのインターネット」接続の使用であり，接なインフラストラクチャーのためにインターネットを使用する人々はわずか続された産業は 2025 年までに世界の IoT 接続の 50% 以上を占めると20% にすぎず，速度が遅く費用が高くなります。229 より一般的には，世界的予想されています。227にデジタル格差が農村部と都市部，性別，および「年齢層」の間に存在します。インターネット アクセスの変動性は既存の不平等を強化する可能性があ

インターネットの普及とますます統合されたオンライン システムにより，サイバーセキュリティの改善とデジタル インフラストラクチャーの改善が重要な規制の優先事項になっています。228

るため，接続性の違いは将来の不平等を定義する一因となる要因の 1 つです (「多様化する不平等」を参照)。このような接続性の違いに対処するためにアクションを起こすことで，より多くの国がグローバル市場にアクセスできる

インターネット接続の増加に伴い，「サイバー脆弱性」が増加しています。したがって，重要なインフラストラクチャーの停止から産業データまたは個人
データの侵害および選挙操作に至るまで，サイバースペースを戦場として使用できる悪意のある (国家および非国家の) 攻撃者からの脅威にさらされることなく，社会が，インターネットが提供するすべての恩恵を受けるにようになり，より多くの人々が接続できるようになり，技術革新の恩恵を受けることができます。現在の取り組みを考慮すると，楽観的なシナリオによると，世界のインターネット普及率は 2030 年までに 90% に達し，世界人口の75% がモバイル接続を利用し，60% がブロードバンド アクセスを利用できるようになる可能性があります。230,231

225.

Global trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

226.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)

227.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)

228.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)229.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)230.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

231.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹›Technology

Because the Internet has the power to spread false, misleading, or harmful information justas easily as it provides truth and knowledge, another challenge for regulators revolves around
Internet censorship and safety. While there are legitimate reasons to censor harmful Internet
content, access can also be used as a means of political control. States can limit or control
platforms for Internet access, for propaganda purposes, and to restrict access to information.
To date, over 23% of countries still ban or censor news, and, in some cases, shut down
access to certain sites, effectively reducing their citizens’ access to digital information andresources.232 Nevertheless, the Internet remains a valuable tool for citizens to search for more
sources of information beyond state-controlled media.
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards
݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1, Information technology• ISO/IEC 29341-8-5:2008, Information technology – UPnP Device Architecture– Part 8-5: Internet Gateway Device Control Protocol - Wireless Local Area
Network Access Point Device

232. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹
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Where to from here?

インターネットには，真実や知識を提供するのと同じくらい簡単に，誤った，誤解を招く，または有害な情報を広める力があるため，規制当局にとってのもう 1 つの課題は，インターネットの検閲と安全性に関係しています。有害なインターネット コンテンツを検閲する正当な理由はありますが，アクセスは政治的統制の手段として使用されることもあります。国家は，プロパガンダの目的でインターネット アクセスのプラットフォームを制限または管理し，情報へのアクセスを制限することができます。今日まで，23%以上の国がまだニュースを禁止または検閲しており，場合によっては特定のサイトへのアクセスを遮断して，デジタル情報や情報源への市民のアクセスを効果的に減らしています。232 それにもかかわらず，
インターネットは，国営メディア以外の情報源を市民が検索するための貴重なツールであり続けています。
.
関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1, Information technology• ISO/IEC 29341-8-5:2008, Information technology – UPnP Device Architecture– Part 8-5: Internet Gateway Device Control Protocol - Wireless Local Area
Network Access Point Device

232.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹›

Technology

5G

Related trends: Extended
reality, Services moving
online, Smart cities,
Spread of the Internet

In telecommunications, 5G is the fifth generation of mobile technologies and an evolution fromthe previous generations of mobile technologies: 2G, 3G, and 4G. Meanwhile, 5G is expected
to be faster, connecting more people, things, data, applications, transport systems and cities
in smart, networked, communication environments. It should transport a huge amount of datamuch faster, reliably connect an extremely large number of devices, and process very highvolumes of data with minimal delay.233,234
Whereas 4G systems, for example, have opened a new era for mobile Internet, enabling many
app-based businesses used for services such as m-Learning, m-Health and mobile money,
5G is seen as opening yet another new era, supporting applications such as: smart homes andbuildings; smarter and cleaner cities; self-driving cars and other intelligent transport systems;
3D video; work and play in the Cloud; remote medical services; virtual and augmented reality(see ‘Extended reality’), and; massive machine-to-machine communications for industry
automation and manufacturing. The 3G and 4G networks currently face challenges insupporting these services.235,236
Although the business cases and scope of use present challenges, these new functionalities
and new services necessitate a new way of deploying advanced mobile services, as well as
new approaches to making 5G technologies work together in industrial settings by machineto-machine communications, the ‘Internet of Things‘ or with connected vehicles.237
233. 5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)234. 5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)
235. 5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)236. 5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)237. 5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)‹
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Where to from here?

5G
通信業界では，5G は第 5 世代のモバイル技術であり，前世代のモバイル技術である 2G，3G，4G から進化したものです。一方，5G はより高速になることが期待されており，スマートでネットワーク化された通信環境で，より多くの人，モノ，データ，アプリケーション，輸送システム，および都市を接続します。
大量のデータをはるかに高速に転送し，非常に多数のデバイスを確実に接続し，非常に大量のデータを最小限の遅延で処理する必要があります。233,234
たとえば，4G システムはモバイル インターネットの新時代を切り開き，m-Learning，m-Health，モバイ
ル マネーなどのサービスに使用される多くのアプリ ベースのビジネスを可能にしました。スマート ホー
ムとビルディング；よりスマートでクリーンな都市；自動運転車やその他のインテリジェントな輸送システ
ム；3D ビデオ；仕事も遊びもクラウドで；遠隔医療サービス；仮想および拡張現実 (「拡張現実」を参照)，および；業界の自動化と製造のための大規模なマシン間通信などがそうです。現在，3G および
4G ネットワークは，これらのサービスをサポートする上で課題に直面しています。235,236
ビジネスケースと使用範囲には課題がありますが，これらの新しい機能と新しいサービスには，高度なモバイルサービスを展開する新しい方法と，「モノのインターネット」または接続された車両とのマシンツ
ーマシン通信によって産業環境で 5G テクノロジーを連携させる新しいアプローチが必要です。237

233.

5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)234.

5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)

235.

5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)236.

5G. Human exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and health (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)

237.

5G. Fifth generation of mobile technologies (International Telecommunication Unit, 2019)‹›Technology

関連するトレンド：拡張現実,
サービスのオンライン化, スマ
ートシティ, インターネットの普及The advent of 5G has arrived, and with it comes a world that isbetter connected and more powerful than ever before: 5G rollouts
are happening worldwide. The US, UK, Germany, and South Korea
already have 5G in some regions, with many more countries planningto follow suit.238 South Korea’s SK Telecom hit one million 5G
subscribers in the first 140 days of service, surpassing its 2011 4G
LTE uptake.239 And 5G is expected to account for 40-50% of global
mobile connections by 2034.240
In 2019, carriers AT&T and Verizon both launched their 5G networks
in more than a dozen US sports stadiums. The concentration ofpeople, along with an augmented reality experience use case, madethese venues the ideal place to test the early rollouts. In the stadium,fans could connect to the network and participate in AR experiences
through their smartphones, such as dancing with virtual National
Football League players.241

The record-breaking speeds, capacity for a higher number ofconnections and minimal latency of 5G are enabling a new frontierin the IoT. In the healthcare industry, technologists are alreadydeveloping 5G devices to enable remote surgery, which would allow
for highly specialized training of the next generation of doctors andbring previously inaccessible healthcare to populations worldwide.242
5G wireless technology is expected to be critical for the IoT due to its
greater ability to handle massive volumes of data: 5G networks canprocess around up to 1,000 times more data than today’s systems.243 In
particular, it offers the possibility to connect many more devices (e.g.
sensors and smart devices). It is estimated that by 2025, the UnitedStates, followed by Europe and the Asia-Pacific, will be leaders in 5G
adoption. In order for developing countries to maximize the impact of
the IoT, significant investments in 5G infrastructure will be required. By
2025, the share of 5G in total connections is expected to reach 59% in
the Republic of Korea, compared with only 8% in Latin America and 3%
in sub-Saharan Africa.244 Moreover, the deployment of 5G may further

238. The Top Countries with 5G Deployments and Trials (SDxCentral, 2019)239. 5G Milestone. Korea’s SK Telecom First to Pass 1M Subscribers (Forbes, 2019)240. Study on Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands (GSMA, 2018)
241.

Now Is The Time To Load Up On 5G Stocks (Forbes, 2019)242. 5G will unlock whole new applications. Here are the most promising (CNET, 2018)
243. Evolution of wireless networks technologies, history and emerging technology of 5G wireless Network. A review (Journal of Telecommunications System & Management, 2018)244. The Mobile Economy 2019 (GSMA, 2019)‹
Foreword

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5G の登場により，これまで以上に接続が強化され，5G の展開は世界中で

5G の記録破りの速度，より多くの接続に対応する容量，および最小限の行われていて，より強力な世界が到来しました。米国，英国，ドイツ，韓国で遅延により，IoT の新たなフロンティアが可能になります。ヘルスケア業界

は，一部の地域ですでに 5G が導入されており，さらに多くの国がそれに続では，技術者はすでに遠隔手術を可能にする 5G デバイスを開発していまく予定です。238 韓国の SK Telecom は，サービス開始から 140 日間です。これにより，次世代の医師の高度に専門的なトレーニングが可能にな

100 万人の 5G 加入者を達成し，2011 年の 4G LTE の普及率を上回りまり，以前はアクセスできなかったヘルスケアが世界中の人々にもたらされました。239 また，5G は 2034 年までに世界のモバイル接続の 40 ～ 50% をす。242

占めると予想されています。240

5G ワイヤレス テクノロジーは，大量のデータを処理する能力に優れてい2019 年，通信事業者の AT&T と Verizon はどちらも，米国の 12 を超えるるため，IoT にとって重要であると予想されます。5G ネットワークは，現在スポーツ スタジアムで 5G ネットワークを開始しました。人々の集中と，拡のシステムの約 1,000 倍のデータを処理できます。243 特に，より多くのデ張現実体験のユースケースにより，これらの会場は初期の展開をテストす

バイス (センサーやスマートデバイスなど) を接続する可能性を提供しまるのに理想的な場所になりました。スタジアムでは，ファンはネットワークにす。 2025 年までに，米国に続き，ヨーロッパとアジア太平洋地域が 5G 導接続し，スマートフォンを介して，仮想のナショナル フットボール リーグの選入のリーダーになると推定されています。発展途上国が IoT の影響を最大

手と一緒に踊るようなAR 体験に参加することができました。241

化するには，5G インフラストラクチャーへの多額の投資が必要になります。 2025 年までに，総接続数に占める 5G の割合は，韓国では 59% に達すると予想されていますが，ラテンアメリカではわずか 8%，サハラ以南のアフリカでは 3% にすぎません。244 さらに，5G の展開は，都市部と農村

238.

The Top Countries with 5G Deployments and Trials (SDxCentral, 2019)239.

5G Milestone. Korea’s SK Telecom First to Pass 1M Subscribers (Forbes, 2019)240.

Study on Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands (GSMA, 2018)

241.

Now Is The Time To Load Up On 5G Stocks (Forbes, 2019)242.

5G will unlock whole new applications. Here are the most promising (CNET, 2018)243.

Evolution of wireless networks technologies, history and emerging technology of 5G wireless Network. A review (Journal of Telecommunications System & Management, 2018)

244.

The Mobile Economy 2019 (GSMA, 2019)‹›Technology

increase the urban-rural digital divide, as setting up 5G networks in rural areas with lower demand
will be commercially challenging.245,246
Estimates put 5G as contributing up to USD 12.3 trillion to global economic output overthe next decade.247 Rapidly maturing technologies are expanding businesses’ experiencecustomization capabilities, making the balance between customization and consumer choiceincreasingly critical: as 5G networks are expected to enable faster and more interconnected
networks of people and devices, the opportunities are growing quickly. The 5G infrastructure
market is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% between 20192027, according to Fortune Business Insights.248,249
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards
݁ ISO/TC 268/SC 2, Sustainable cities and communities - Sustainable mobility
and transportation• ISO/CD 37184, Smart community infrastructures – Guidance on smart transportation for providing
meshes for 5G communication
NOTE: ITU plays a leading role in managing the radio spectrum and developing globally applicable standards for IMT-2020,
the name used in ITU for the standards of 5G

245. Setting the scene for 5G. Opportunities & challenges (International Telecommunication Unit, 2018)
246. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development, 2019)247. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
248. 5G Infrastructure Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Communication Infrastructure (Fortune Business Insights,
2020)
249. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

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Technology

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EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

部の情報格差をさらに拡大する可能性があります。需要の少ない農村部で 5G ネットワークを立ち上げ
ることは商業的に困難になるからです。245,246
推定では，5G は今後 10 年間で世界の経済生産に最大 12.3 兆米ドルの貢献をするとしています。247
急速に成熟するテクノロジーは，企業のエクスペリエンスのカスタマイズ機能を拡大しており，カスタマイズと消費者の選択のバランスがますます重要になっています。5G ネットワークは，人とデバイスのより高速で相互接続されたネットワークを可能にすることが期待されているため，機会は急速に拡大しています。 Fortune Business Insights によると，5G インフラストラクチャー市場は，2019 年から 2027 年の間に年平均成長率 (CAGR) 71% で上昇すると予想されています。248,249

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 268/SC 2, Sustainable cities and communities - Sustainable mobility andtransportation• ISO/CD 37184, Smart community infrastructures – Guidance on smart transportation for providing
meshes for 5G communication

NOTE: ITU plays a leading role in managing the radio spectrum and developing globally applicable standards for IMT-2020,
the name used in ITU for the standards of 5G

245.

Setting the scene for 5G. Opportunities & challenges (International Telecommunication Unit, 2018)

246.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development, 2019)

247.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

248.

5G Infrastructure Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Communication Infrastructure (Fortune Business Insights,
2020)

249.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

Services moving online

Related trends: 5G, Extended
reality, New business models,Quantum technologies, Rise of
the middle class, Smart cities,
Spread of the Internet, The
experience economy

The development of digital technologies such as ‘5G’, ‘Internet of Things’, ‘Artificial intelligence’,machine learning and big data, is leading to an increasing number of services moving online(we define services here as the result of interactions/activities performed between a supplierand a customer/user). Such services include business activities (including business tobusiness), finance, e-commerce, education, healthcare, and the entertainment industry with
e-sports, ‘Extended reality’ gaming and e-tourism. While such a shift towards online platforms
can positively increase accessibility and connectivity, it can also increase digital inequalities
and cybersecurity issues if left unregulated.
The digitalization of services has strong implication for the future of trade and businessinteractions: it can make shorter supply chains economically viable, in addition to increasing
the market reach of companies with an online presence.250 Some analysts suggest thatthe digitalization of the economy will significantly increase in the next 20 years, where
many global activities will be “digitally intermediated, customized, on demand and globally
distributed.”251 During the period 2020-2021 alone, the pace of change in this trend wassignificantly accelerated due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced many businesses
and individuals to both provide and access online services because of social distancing andmovement restrictions. In terms of education, this meant the implementation of innovative
teaching and learning methods. For healthcare, as communities faced lockdowns andisolation, and hospitals were under pressure to deal with the outbreak, the availability of virtual
doctor’s appointments and health tracking apps for diagnosis and monitoring enabled a certain
continuity of service for the population. For both education and healthcare, the continued
250. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)251.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society›

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Technology

Environment

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Where to from here?

オンライン化するサービス「5G」，「モノのインターネット」，「人工知能」，機械学習，ビッグデータなどのデジタル技術の発展により，オンラインに移行するサービスの数が増加しています (ここではサービスを相互作用/活動の結果として定義します)。サプライヤーと顧客/ユーザーの間で実行されます)。このようなサービスには，事業活動 (B2B を含む)，金融，電子商取引，教育，ヘルスケア，および e スポーツ，「拡張現実」ゲーム，e ツーリズムを伴うエンターテイメント業界が含まれます。このようなオンライン プラットフォームへの移行
は，アクセシビリティと接続性を積極的に向上させる可能性がありますが，規制されないままにしておくと，デジタルの不平等とサイバーセキュリティの問題も増加する可能性があります。
サービスのデジタル化は，貿易とビジネスの相互作用の将来に大きな影響を与えます。オンライン プレ
ゼンスを持つ企業の市場範囲を拡大するだけでなく，より短いサプライ チェーンを経済的に実行可能にすることができます。250 一部のアナリストは，経済のデジタル化が今後 20 年間で大幅に増加し，多くのグローバルな活動が「デジタルで仲介され，カスタマイズされ，オンデマンドで，グローバルに分散される」と示唆しています。251 2020年から2021年の期間だけでも，COVID-19のパンデミックにより，このトレンドの変化のペースが大幅に加速し，社会的距離と移動の制限により，多くの企業や個人がオン
ラインサービスを提供およびアクセスすることを余儀なくされました。教育に関して言えば，これは革新的な教育と学習方法の実施を意味しました。ヘルスケアに関しては，コミュニティが封鎖と隔離に直面し，病院が大流行に対処する圧力にさらされていたため，診断と監視のための仮想医師の予約と健康追跡アプリを利用できるようになったことで，人口に対するサービスの一定の継続性が可能になりました。教育とヘルスケアの両方について，オンライン サービスとモバイル アプリの継続的な開発により，250.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)251.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹›Technology

関連するトレンド：5G, 拡張現実, 新しいビジネスモデル, 量子技術, 中
産階級の台頭, スマートシティ, イン
ターネットの普及, 経験経済

development of online services and mobile apps is expected toreduce the pressure on social and healthcare systems around theglobe and increase access for vulnerable populations.252
This evolution towards online services can also provide new businessand employment opportunities, especially for developing nations andsmall and medium sized enterprises (SMEs).253,254 As it stands, theAfrican region is very active in investing for the future, with countries
spending over 1% of their GDP on digital investments, and young
generations especially embracing change by launching start-ups(online and apps), including, for example, mobile, banking services in
Kenya. Overall, both public and private initiatives for digital platforms
are emerging to offer products and services online.255 The effect ofdigitalizing some sectors will, of course, also disrupt the job market
negatively, reducing the need for certain jobs. However, studies
suggest that “the vast majority of jobs of the future do not exist yet”,
which leaves space for adaptation to the new job market needs
created by the online services sector.256

At the same time, the recent expansion of digitalized humaninteractions and online services can also exacerbate or create new
inequalities. When workplaces and schools moved their operations
online during the COVID-19 pandemic, those that lacked thedigital knowledge and skills, the practical tools, or the available
infrastructures (e.g. laptop computers and Internet connectivity –see ‘Spread of the Internet’) to successfully transition, were at riskof being excluded.257 These digital inequalities are growing, not only
between, but also within countries, with age and socio-economic
status being key players (see ‘Diversifying inequalities’).
In addition, the development of online services can be linked to
power concentration and monopolies. A few digital platforms are
getting most of the benefits from services moving online, andhave strengthened their position thanks to the pandemic, making
it difficult for new providers to enter the market.258 “Digital power
concentration could confine political and societal discourse to alimited number of platforms that have the capability of filtering
information and further reduce the already limited agency of252. Ten trends that will shape science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
253. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)254. Global trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)255. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
256. Global trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)257. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)
258. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)‹
Foreword

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Technology

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Where to from here?

世界中の社会システムとヘルスケア システムへの圧力が軽減され，脆弱な同時に，デジタル化された人間の相互作用とオンライン サービスの最近の

人々のアクセスが増加すると予想されます。252

拡大も，新たな不平等を悪化させたり，生み出したりする可能性がありま

このオンライン サービスへの進化は，特に発展途上国や中小企業 (SME)にも，新しいビジネスと雇用の機会を提供する可能性があります。253,254 現状では，アフリカ地域は未来への投資に非常に積極的であり，各国は GDPの 1% 以上をデジタル投資に費やしており，特に若い世代は，たとえばケニアのモバイル銀行サービスを含むスタートアップ (オンラインとアプリ) を立ち上げて変化を受け入れています。全体として，オンラインで製品やサービス

す。職場や学校が COVID-19 のパンデミック中に業務をオンラインに移行したとき，デジタルの知識とスキル，実用的なツール，または利用可能なインフラストラクチャー (ラップトップ コンピューターやインターネット接続など 「インターネットの普及」を参照) が不足していた人々は，移行を成功させる
ために，除外される危険性がありました。257 これらのデジタル不平等は，年
齢と社会経済的地位が重要な役割を果たしているため，国間だけでなく国内でも拡大しています（「不平等の多様化」を参照）。

を提供するために，デジタル プラットフォームの公的および民間のイニシアチブが出現しています。255 もちろん，一部のセクターをデジタル化すること

また，オンラインサービスの発展は，権力の集中と独占につながる可能性の影響は，雇用市場に悪影響を及ぼし，特定の仕事の必要性を減らしまがあります。いくつかのデジタル プラットフォームは，オンラインに移行するす。しかし，調査によると，「未来の仕事の大部分はまだ存在していない」こサービスからほとんどの恩恵を得ており，パンデミックのおかげでその地位とが示唆されており，オンライン サービス部門によって生み出された新しいを強化しており，新しいプロバイダーが市場に参入することを困難にしてい雇用市場のニーズに適応する余地が残されています。256

ます。258 「デジタルの力の集中は，政治的および社会的な言説を，情報をフィルタリングする機能を備えた限られた数のプラットフォームに限定し，データがどのように使用されるかについて，すでに限られている個人や組織

252.

Ten trends that will shape science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity—finally, maybe—goes back to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

253.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)254.

Global trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)255.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

256.

Global trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

257.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

258.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2019)‹›Technology

individuals and organizations over how their data are used.”259 This leads to an increase inregulatory pressure from governments to protect online consumer rights by targeting anticompetitive behaviour and monopolization, ensuring providers’ responsibility for aspects suchas illegal activities on their platforms, and the protection of privacy.
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 312, Excellence in service• ISO - QR traffic light to help stop COVID-19• ISO 23592:2021, Service excellence – Principles and model• ISO - New standard for consumer warranties
keeps everyone in the supply chain on thesame page• ISO/TS 24082:2021, Service excellence – Designing excellent service to achieve outstanding
customer experiences• ISO - Service standards are on trend
in the latest ISOfocus

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 36, Information technology for learning, education, and training• ISO/IEC 23127-1:2021, Information technology – Learning, education, and training – Metadata
for facilitators of online learning – Part 1: Framework

݁ ISO/TC 68/SC 9, Information exchange for financial services• ISO/TS 23029:2020, Web-service-based application programming interface (WAPI) in
financial services

݁ ISO/TC 133, Clothing sizing systems• ISO 18825-1:2016, Clothing – Digital fittings – Part 1: Vocabulary and terminology used
for the virtual human body259. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹
Foreword

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Technology
Technology

Environment

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Where to from here?

のエージェンシーをさらに減らす可能性があります。」259 これは，反競争的行為や独占行為に的を絞ってオンラインの消費者の権利を保護し，プラットフォームでの違法行為やプライバシー保護などの側面に対するプロバイダーの責任を確実にすることによって，政府からの規制圧力の増加につながります。
関連するISOニュースストーリー
関連するISO専門委員会および規格• ISO - QR traffic light to help stop COVID-19

݁◌ ISO/TC 312, Excellence in service• ISO 23592:2021, Service excellence – Principles and model• ISO/TS 24082:2021, Service excellence – Designing excellent service to achieve outstanding
customer experiences݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 36, Information technology for learning, education, and training• ISO/IEC 23127-1:2021, Information technology – Learning, education, and training – Metadata
for facilitators of online learning – Part 1: Framework݁◌ ISO/TC 68/SC 9, Information exchange for financial services• ISO/TS 23029:2020, Web-service-based application programming interface (WAPI) in
financial services݁◌ ISO/TC 133, Clothing sizing systems• ISO 18825-1:2016, Clothing – Digital fittings – Part 1: Vocabulary and terminology used
for the virtual human body259.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)‹›

Technology• ISO - New standard for consumer warranties
keeps everyone in the supply chain on thesame page• ISO - Service standards are on trend
in the latest ISOfocus݁ ISO/TC 154, Processes, data elements and documents in commerce, industry
and administration• ISO 19626-1:2020, Processes, data elements and documents in commerce, industry andadministration – Trusted communication platforms for electronic documents – Part 1:
Fundamentals• ISO 20415:2019, Trusted mobile e-document framework – Requirements, functionality and criteria
for ensuring reliable and safe mobile e-business݁ ISO/TC 290, Online reputation• ISO 20488:2018, Online consumer reviews – Principles and requirements for their collection,
moderation and publication

݁ ISO/TC 321, Transaction assurance in E-commerce• ISO/WD 32120, Guidelines on sharing of product quality assurance related traceability informationin E-commerce supply chains‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

݁◌ ISO/TC 154, Processes, data elements and documents in commerce, industry
and administration• ISO 19626-1:2020, Processes, data elements and documents in commerce, industry andadministration – Trusted communication platforms for electronic documents – Part 1:
Fundamentals• ISO 20415:2019, Trusted mobile e-document framework – Requirements, functionality and criteria
for ensuring reliable and safe mobile e-business݁◌ ISO/TC 290, Online reputation• ISO 20488:2018, Online consumer reviews – Principles and requirements for their collection,
moderation and publication

݁◌ ISO/TC 321, Transaction assurance in E-commerce• ISO/WD 32120, Guidelines on sharing of product quality assurance related traceability informationin E-commerce supply chains‹›

Technology

Cyber-physical systems
Robotics | Autonomous vehicles | Internet of Things | Smart cities
Cyber-physical systems integrate computational components (information processing) withphysical processes, which interact through a network. Technological advances in the ‘Internetof Things’, ‘Robotics’, and ‘Autonomous vehicles’ are the foundation for making cyber-physicalsystems possible, and today there are examples of successful cyber-physical systems
everywhere… from driver less trains, to smart buildings, to household appliances and everyday
items such as cleaning robots, wearable fitness devices or electric bikes.
Cyber-physical systems provide an opportunity to positively improve our quality of life inmany domains, ranging from transportation, to healthcare, farming, manufacturing, smart
grids, and everyday living. A key challenge, however, is the need for engineering innovation
to work in coordination with information technology innovation, as the physical meets thedigital. Developing common languages and other commonalities in this pluri-disciplinary field
will facilitate future development of these systems. In addition, as with many technologicaladvances, unintended consequences of integrating cyber-physical systems are likely toemerge in future, and it is therefore important to think ahead about the ethics surrounding
these systems and how future regulation can limit risks related to safety, responsibility, liability,
privacy and more.

‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

サイバー フィジカル システム
ロボティクス | 自動運転車 | モノのインターネット | スマートシティ

サイバー フィジカル システムは，計算コンポーネント (情報処理) を，ネットワークを介して相互作用する
物理プロセスと統合します。 「モノのインターネット」，「ロボティクス」，「自動運転車」における技術の進
歩は，サイバーフィジカル システムを可能にするための基盤であり，今日では，無人電車からスマート
ビルディングまで，さらに掃除ロボット，ウェアラブル フィットネス デバイス，電動自転車などの家庭用電化製品，日用品まで， あらゆる場所でサイバー フィジカル システムの成功例が見られます。
サイバー フィジカル システムは，輸送から医療，農業，製造，スマート グリッド，日常生活に至るまで，
多くの領域で私たちの生活の質を積極的に改善する機会を提供します。しかし，重要な課題は，フィジカ
ルとデジタルが出会うにつれて，エンジニアリングのイノベーションが情報技術のイノベーションと連携して機能する必要があることです。この学際的な分野で共通言語やその他の共通点を開発することで，これらのシステムの将来の開発が容易になります。さらに，多くの技術的進歩と同様に，サイバー フィジカ
ル システムの統合による意図しない結果が将来現れる可能性が高いため，これらのシステムを取り巻く倫理と，将来の規制が安全性，道義的責任，法的責任，プライバシーなどに関連するリスクをどのように制限できるかについて事前に検討することが重要です。

‹›

Technology

Robotics

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Autonomousvehicles, Customized products,
Effects of automation, Ethics oftechnology, Internet of Things

Robotics technology is developing quickly and is already able to replace human labour for arange of tasks. Vast improvements in the capabilities of robots are expected to continue andthis will lead to changes across many industries260,261,262:••

Healthcare will benefit from the increased use of robots in basic medicine anddiagnostics, reducing costs for individuals and the economic burden of publicly funded
health services.263
Robots will continue to take over human labour in manufacturing, displacing workers
as a result – the pace of technological development may create extreme pressures on
education and training systems to support the adaptation of workforces (see ‘Effects ofautomation’).264,265 However, robotics is also expected to lead to new types of work266, aslarge numbers of robotics technicians will be required to maintain these ‘fleets of robots’and the data generated and collected by robots will be immense, leading to growing
demand for data scientists to make use of it.267

260. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)261.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

262. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
263. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)
264. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)265. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)266. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
267. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

ロボティクス
ロボット技術は急速に発展しており，すでにさまざまなタスクで人間の労働を置き換えることができます。
ロボットの機能の大幅な改善は今後も続くと予想され，これは多くの業界に変化をもたらすでしょう
260,261,262：••

ヘルスケアは，基礎医学と診断におけるロボットの使用の増加から恩恵を受け，個人のコストと公的資金による医療サービスの経済的負担を軽減します。263
ロボットは製造業で人間の労働力を奪い続け，その結果，労働者に置き換わります。技術開発のペースは，労働力の適応をサポートするための教育および訓練システムに極度の圧力がかかる可能性があります (「自動化の効果」を参照)。264,265 ただし，ロボット工学は新しいタイプの仕事にもつながると予想されます。266 これらの「ロボット艦隊」を維持するには多数のロボット工学技術者が必要になり，ロボットによって生成および収集されるデータは膨大になり，それを利用するためにデータ
サイエンティストの需要が高まるためです。267

260.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)261.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

262.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

263.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)264.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)265.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)

266.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

267.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：人工知能, 自動運
転車, カスタマイズされた製品, 自動化の効果, 技術の倫理, モノのインタ
ーネット

•

•

•

The agricultural sector will increasingly use robots for manual tasks such as seeding,
weeding, and harvesting, with sensors improving in their ability to identify ripe produce,
harvest plants and detect disease.268
A range of military applications is anticipated, raising increasingly complex ethicalquestions. If terrorist organizations and non-state armed groups have access to thistechnology, it will increase the complexity of conflict.269
The automotive and transportation sector will move towards increasing production anduse of ‘Autonomous vehicles’, made possible by advances in robotics and other emerging
technologies (see ‘5G’).270 The carsharing company Uber, for example, is currently
expanding its driverless-car programme. This may lead to a reduction in private carownership and use.271

As robots increase in power, their applications are likely to grow. Computing for robots is now
possible in the Cloud, increasing their processing power and speed.272 Advances in sensors,
speech-recognition technology and computer vision will all contribute to more advanced
robotics products, including robots that are able to operate in uncontrolled settings – known
as ‘open-world autonomy’.273

268. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
269. Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)
270. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)
271.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)272. 20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)
273. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

•

農業分野では，種まき，除草，収穫などの手動作業にロボットを使用することが多くなり，熟した農•

さまざまな軍事用途が予想され，ますます複雑な倫理的問題が生じています。テロ組織や非国家武装集団がこの技術にアクセスできるようになれば，紛争の複雑さが増します。269•

自動車および運輸部門は，ロボット工学やその他の新興技術の進歩によって可能になった「自動運転車」の生産と使用の増加に向けて動き出すでしょう (「5G」を参照)。270 たとえば，カーシェアリン
グ会社の Uber は現在，自動運転車プログラムを拡大しています。これは，自家用車の所有と使用の減少につながる可能性があります。271

産物を識別して収穫し，病気を検出する能力が向上したセンサーを使用します。268

ロボットの能力が高まるにつれて，その用途も拡大する可能性があります。ロボットのコンピューティング
がクラウドで可能になり，処理能力と速度が向上しました。272 センサー，音声認識技術，コンピューター
ビジョンの進歩はすべて，「オープンワールド オートノミー」として知られる制御されていない設定で動作できるロボットなど，より高度なロボット工学製品に貢献します。273

268.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

269.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)270.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)

271.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)272.

20 New technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

273.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 299, Robotics• ISO - Robots to the rescue!

• ISO/CD 5363, Robotics – Test methods for Exoskeleton-type Walking RACA Robot• ISO - Robots and humans can work
together with new ISO guidance• ISO 8373:2021, Robotics – Vocabulary• ISO - Enter the first cyborgtype robot• ISO 10218-1:2011, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for industrial robots – Part 1: Robots• ISO 10218-2:2011, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for industrial robots – Part 2: Robotsystems and integration• ISO 11593:2022, Robots for industrial environments – Automatic end effector exchangesystems – Vocabulary• ISO 13482:2014, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for personal care robots• ISO/TS 15066:2016, Robots and robotic devices – Collaborative robots‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 299, Robotics• ISO/CD 5363, Robotics – Test methods for Exoskeleton-type Walking RACA Robot• ISO 8373:2021, Robotics – Vocabulary• ISO 10218-1:2011, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for industrial robots – Part 1: Robots• ISO 10218-2:2011, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for industrial robots – Part 2: Robotsystems and integration• ISO 11593:2022, Robots for industrial environments – Automatic end effector exchangesystems – Vocabulary• ISO 13482:2014, Robots and robotic devices – Safety requirements for personal care robots• ISO/TS 15066:2016, Robots and robotic devices – Collaborative robots‹›

Technology• ISO - Robots to the rescue!

• ISO - Robots and humans canwork together with new ISO
guidance• ISO - Enter the first cyborgtype robot

Autonomous vehicles

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Cybervulnerability, Effects ofautomation, Ethics oftechnology, Quantum
technologies, Robotics,
Smart cities, Urbanization

Autonomous vehicle technology is not a one-size-fits-all concept, as there are different
considerations and implications for road, ship, or rail transport. The degree of automation
can vary as well, and classified in ranges from Level 0 (fully manual) to Level 5 (driverless).
The following discussion explores autonomous vehicles as a high-level trend only, whereautonomous vehicles are understood as all forms of driverless transport systems.
Autonomous vehicles are already used in industrial settings, in some public transport systems(e.g. driverless trains), and automation technology is increasingly integrated in our cars (e.g.
cruise control, self-parking technology or traffic jam pilot).274,275 While the autonomous vehicle
market is growing as a whole, with an expected CAGR of over 39% from 2019 to 2026, thedeployment of fully automated (driverless) vehicles on public roads is still years away.276,277 The
impact of more autonomous vehicles is likely to be double-sided. They may eliminate the needfor drivers of vehicles of all kinds: trucks, taxis, and public transport vehicles, representing asignificant labour force impact in the coming decades.278 At the same time, they may create
opportunities for more efficient transport of goods and people to regional areas.279 Indeed,a significant, expected benefit to society is improved population mobility due to use of
autonomous vehicles for public transport, particularly in rural areas.280

274. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)275. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)276. What Are the Levels of Automated Driving? (Aptiv, 2020)
277. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
278. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)279. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)280. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

自動運転車道路，船舶，または鉄道輸送にはさまざまな考慮事項と影響があるため，自動運転車技術は画一的な概念ではありません。自動化の程度もさまざまで，レベル 0 (完全手動) からレベル 5 (無人運転)
までの範囲に分類されます。以下の議論では，自動運転車を高度なトレンドとしてのみ取り上げます。自動運転車は，あらゆる形態の無人輸送システムとして理解されています。.
自動運転車は，産業環境や一部の公共交通機関 (自動運転列車など) ですでに使用されており，自動化技術はますます自動車に組み込まれています (走行制御，自動駐車技術，重タウ運転機能など)。
274,275 自動運転車市場は全体として成長しており，2019 年から 2026 年にかけて CAGR が 39% を超えると予想されていますが，完全に自動化された (無人) 車が公道で展開されるのはまだ数年先のことです。276,277 より多くの自動運転車の影響は両側面に及ぶ可能性があります。トラック，タクシー，公共交通機関など，あらゆる種類の車両の運転手が不要になり，今後数十年で労働力に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。278 同時に，物資や人の地方へのより効率的な輸送の機会を生み出す可能性があります。279 実際，特に農村地域での公共交通機関での自動運転車の使用により，社会への大きな期待される恩恵は，人々の移動性が向上することです。280274.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)275.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

276.

What Are the Levels of Automated Driving? (Aptiv, 2020)

277.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

278.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

279.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)280.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド: 人工知能, サ
イバー脆弱性, 自動化の効果,
技術の倫理, 量子技術, ロボティ
クス, スマートシティ, 都市化

Existing data on use of autonomous vehicles suggests they can reduce both safety incidents
and fuel expenditure.281 Autonomous vehicles are expected to make trade corridors significantly
more efficient and, when combined with the energy efficiency of electric vehicles, increase thecompetitiveness of road transport against rail for the delivery of goods.282
Technology is also developing for autonomous vehicles beyond the road. Future innovations
could include autonomous cargo ships and planes leading to more efficient supply chains ininternational trade.283

281. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)282. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)283. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

自動運転車の使用に関する既存のデータは，自動運転車が安全に関する事故と燃料消費の両方を削減できることを示唆しています。281 自動運転車は貿易回廊の効率を大幅に向上させ，電気自動車のエ
ネルギー効率と組み合わせることで，商品配送の鉄道に対する道路輸送の競争力を高めることが期待されています。282
テクノロジーは，道路を越えた自動運転車の開発も進めています。将来のイノベーションには，国際貿易におけるより効率的なサプライチェーンにつながる自動貨物船や飛行機が含まれる可能性がありま
す。283

281.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)

282.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

283.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)‹›Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 241, Road traffic safety management systems• ISO - Low speed automateddriving systems• ISO/CD 39003, Road Traffic Safety (RTS) – Guidance on safety ethical considerations forautonomous vehicles• ISO - Unearthing the potential ofautonomous mining with ISO 17757

݁ ISO/TC 22, Road vehicles• ISO/TR 4804:2020, Road vehicles – Safety and cybersecurity for automated driving systems –Design, verification and validation

݁ ISO/TC 127, Earth-moving machinery• ISO 17757:2019, Earth-moving machinery and mining – Autonomous and semi-autonomousmachine system safety

݁ ISO/TC 204, Intelligent transport systems• ISO 22737:2021, Intelligent transport systems – Low speed automated driving systems forpredefined routes

݁ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO/FDIS 37181, Smart community infrastructures – Smart transportation by autonomous vehicles
on public roads‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 241, Road traffic safety management systems• ISO/CD 39003, Road Traffic Safety (RTS) – Guidance on safety ethical considerations forautonomous vehicles݁◌ ISO/TC 22, Road vehicles• ISO/TR 4804:2020, Road vehicles – Safety and cybersecurity for automated driving systems –Design, verification and validation

݁◌ ISO/TC 127, Earth-moving machinery• ISO 17757:2019, Earth-moving machinery and mining – Autonomous and semi-autonomousmachine system safety݁◌ ISO/TC 204, Intelligent transport systems• ISO 22737:2021, Intelligent transport systems – Low speed automated driving systems forpredefined routes݁◌ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO/FDIS 37181, Smart community infrastructures – Smart transportation by autonomous vehicles
on public roads‹›

Technology

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Low speed automateddriving systems• ISO - Unearthing the potential ofautonomous mining with ISO
17757

Internet of Things

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Cybervulnerability, Data
privacy, Edge computing,
Energy storage anddistribution, Robotics,
Smart cities, Spread of
the Internet

The IoT refers to a system of interconnected devices embedded with software, sensors, andother technologies (such as digital twin, cloud computing, big data and ‘Artificial intelligence’),
which allows them to exchange data over the Internet for the purpose of improving
functionality and monitoring. IoT systems are software and data-intensive, as well as network
centric. They can be quite complex, ranging from simple architecture to systems which are
multi-tiered, distributed, and ‘Cyber-physical systems’. IoT systems are key enablers of ‘smart
everything’, including smart homes and buildings, ‘Smart manufacturing’, ‘Smart cities’, andsmart farming, but also wearable technologies, medical devices, and vehicles.284 Currently,
there are twice as many devices connected to the Internet as people, and IoT connections
are still expected grow at 17% per year.285,286 Experts predict that, by 2025, an average Internet
user will be interacting with IoT devices nearly 4,900 times each day.287
This increased device connectivity will result in massive amounts of data, creating growing
needs for data storage, analytical capacity, and data protection. The data gathered by thesedevices can contribute to improved strategies to reduce poverty in some contexts, as well as
increased sustainability and environmental protection. However, the IoT could also pose risks,
if data are not sufficiently protected, or if it is used for unethical purposes.288

284. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
285. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
286. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)287. Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)288. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

モノのインターネット
IoT とは，ソフトウェア，センサー，およびその他の技術 (デジタル ツイン，クラウド コンピューティング，
ビッグ データ，「人工知能」など) が組み込まれた相互接続されたデバイスのシステムを指し，機能と監視の向上を目的としてインターネット経由でデータを交換できるようにします。 IoT システムはソフトウェ
アとデータ集約型であり，ネットワーク中心です。それらは，単純なアーキテクチャから，多層，分散，および「サイバーフィジカルシステム」であるシステムに至るまで，非常に複雑になる可能性があります。
IoT システムは，スマート ホームやスマート ビルディング，「スマート マニュファクチャリング」，「スマート シティ」，スマート ファーミングなどの「スマート エブリシング」を可能にする重要な要素ですが，ウェア
ラブル テクノロジー，医療機器，車両も含まれます。284 現在，インターネットに接続されているデバイスの数は人の 2 倍であり，IoT 接続は依然として年間 17% の割合で増加すると予想されています。
285,286 専門家は，2025 年までに平均的なインターネット ユーザーが毎日 4,900 回近く IoT デバイスとやり取りをするようになると予測しています。287
このようにデバイスの接続性が高まると，膨大な量のデータが発生し，データ ストレージ，分析容量，およびデータ保護に対するニーズが高まります。これらのデバイスによって収集されたデータは，状況によっては貧困を削減するための戦略の改善や，持続可能性と環境保護の向上に貢献できます。ただし，データが十分に保護されていない場合，または非倫理的な目的で使用される場合，IoT はリスクをもたらす可能性もあります。288

284.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

285.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

286.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value creation and capture: implications for developing countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)

287.

Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2019)288.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：人工知能,
サイバー脆弱性, データ保護, エッジ コンピューティン
グ, エネルギーの貯蔵と分配, ロボティクス, スマートシティ, インターネットの普及

The rollout of emerging communications and networking technologies such as ‘5G’ andsatellite IoT will increase the reach, efficiency, and capacity of IoT devices, further growing
the demand for these products.289,290 For example, improved IoT technology and increased
connectivity are already fostering the development of remote surgery technologies, which will“bring previously inaccessible healthcare to worldwide populations.”291

289. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
290. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
291.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

「5G」や衛星IoTなどの新しい通信およびネットワーク技術の展開により，IoTデバイスの範囲，効率，および容量が増加し，これらの製品の需要がさらに高まります。289,290 たとえば，IoT 技術の向上と接続性の向上により，遠隔手術技術の開発がすでに促進されており，「これまでアクセスできなかった医療を世界中の人々に提供する」ことができます。291

289.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

290.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

291.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)‹›

Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin

• ISO - Standards hat trick for the Internet of Things• ISO/IEC 20924:2021, Information technology – Internet of Things (IoT) – Vocabulary• ISO - Reference framework for the Internetof Things• ISO/IEC 21823-1:2019, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems– Part 1: Framework• ISO - Are we safe in the Internet of Things?

• ISO/IEC 21823-2:2020, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 2:
Transport interoperability• ISO - How the Internet of Things will change
our lives• ISO/IEC 21823-3:2021, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 3:
Semantic interoperability• ISO - On the road to transport connectivity• ISO - The next frontier for business• ISO/IEC 21823-4:2022, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 4:
Syntactic interoperability• ISO/IEC 30141:2018, Internet of Things (IoT) – Reference architecture• ISO/IEC 30147:2021, Information technology – Internet of things – Methodology fortrustworthiness of IoT system/service• ISO/IEC 30162:2022, Internet of Things (IoT) – Compatibility requirements and model for devices
within industrial IoT systems• ISO/IEC 30165:2021, Internet of Things (IoT) – Real-time IoT framework

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO/IEC 27001:2013, Information technology – Security techniques – Information security
management systems – Requirements• ISO/IEC 27701:2019, Security techniques – Extension to ISO/IEC 27001, and ISO/IEC 27002,
for privacy information management – Requirements and guidelines‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 41, Internet of things and digital twin

• ISO/IEC 20924:2021, Information technology – Internet of Things (IoT) – Vocabulary• ISO/IEC 21823-1:2019, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems– Part 1: Framework• ISO/IEC 21823-2:2020, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 2:
Transport interoperability• ISO/IEC 21823-3:2021, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 3:
Semantic interoperability• ISO/IEC 21823-4:2022, Internet of things (IoT) – Interoperability for IoT systems – Part 4:
Syntactic interoperability• ISO/IEC 30141:2018, Internet of Things (IoT) – Reference architecture• ISO/IEC 30147:2021, Information technology – Internet of things – Methodology fortrustworthiness of IoT system/service• ISO/IEC 30162:2022, Internet of Things (IoT) – Compatibility requirements and model for devices
within industrial IoT systems• ISO/IEC 30165:2021, Internet of Things (IoT) – Real-time IoT framework݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, Information security, cybersecurity and privacy protection• ISO/IEC 27001:2013, Information technology – Security techniques – Information security
management systems – Requirements• ISO/IEC 27701:2019, Security techniques – Extension to ISO/IEC 27001, and ISO/IEC 27002,
for privacy information management – Requirements and guidelines‹›

Technology

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Standards hat trick for the Internet of Things• ISO - Reference framework for the Internetof Things• ISO - Are we safe in the Internet of Things?

• ISO - How the Internet of Things will change
our lives• ISO - On the road to transport connectivity• ISO - The next frontier for businessSmart cities
Cities are the future of human organization, with over two-thirds of the global population
expected to live in urban areas by 2030.292 This raises significant challenges, including theallocation of resources to growing populations and the management of their consumption andwaste. Smart cities are rising to address these challenges by integrating smart technologies
to address citizens’ needs more safely, sustainably, and efficiently, from goods and services
to transport and logistics management. The World Economic Forum293 predicts that thetechnological tipping point for smart cities – that is, when they move from being novel entities
to representing the norm – could occur as early as 2026.

Related trends: 5G,
Autonomous vehicles,
Energy storage anddistribution, Spread of theInternet, Urbanization‘Smart’ can mean different things to different people. In ISO, a ‘smart city’ is considered to be
one with “effective integration of physical, digital and human systems in the built environment
to deliver a sustainable, prosperous and inclusive future for its citizens” (ISO/IEC 30182:2017,2.14). Another helpful way to understand it is to look at smart as having three pillars: digital,
physical, and economic. Digitally smart refers to the effective deployment of digital andcommunication technologies for city management. Physically smart refers to the adjustment
and construction of sustainable infrastructures and processes that enhance the city’s
resilience and the residents’ quality of life. Finally, economically smart refers to the effective
collaboration between citizens and local businesses to share assets and resources to build aresilient community.294 The evolution of smart cities is closely linked to innovation in ‘Internetof Things’, ‘5G’ and DARQ technologies, ‘Distributed ledger’, ‘Artificial intelligence’, ‘Extended

292. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)
293. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)294. Technology outlook 2030. Technology & society (Det Norske Veritas, 2021)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

スマートシティ
都市は人間組織の未来であり，2030 年までに世界人口の 3 分の 2 以上が都市部に住むと予想されています。292 これにより，増加する人口への資源の割り当てや，その消費と廃棄物の管理など，重大な課題が生じます。スマート シティは，スマート テクノロジーを統合して，商品やサービスから輸送や物流管理まで，市民のニーズに安全に，持続可能に，効率的に対応することで，これらの課題に対処するために出現しています。世界経済フォーラム 293 は，スマート シティの技術的転換点，つまり，スマー
ト シティが新しいエンティティから標準の代表に移行する時期は，早ければ 2026 年になる可能性があると予測しています。
「スマート」は，人によって意味が異なる場合があります。 ISO では，「スマート シティ」は，「市民に持続可能で繁栄し，包括的な未来を提供するために，構築された環境に物理的，デジタル，および人間のシステムが効果的に統合されている」ものと見なされています (ISO/IEC 30182：2017，2.14）。それを理解するためのもう 1 つの有効な方法は，スマートをデジタル的，物理的，経済的の 3 本の柱があると見なすことです。デジタル的にスマートとは，都市管理のためのデジタルおよび通信技術の効果的な展開を指します。物理的にスマートとは，都市の回復力と住民の生活の質を向上させる持続可能なインフ
ラストラクチャーとプロセスの調整と構築を指します。最後に，経済的にスマートとは，市民と地元企業が効果的に協力して資産とリソースを共有し，回復力のあるコミュニティを構築することを指します。294
スマート シティの進化は，「モノのインターネット」，「5G」，DARQ 技術，「分散型台帳」，「人工知能」，

292.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

293.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)294.

Technology outlook 2030. Technology & society (Det Norske Veritas, 2021)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：5G, 自動運転
車, エネルギーの貯蔵と分配 , イ
ンターネットの普及, 都市化

reality’, ‘Quantum computing’, which are essential in supporting the deployment of smart cities
around the globe.295
Smart cities can both improve the living conditions of residents and support more sustainableliving arrangements. They do this by integrating smart grids (see ‘Energy’), energy-saving
construction materials and buildings, efficient digital management systems for waste andother logistical needs and services to citizens.296 This results in a more efficient use ofresources and resilient, better-connected systems. However, with this increased connectivity
also brings risks related to privacy and big data sharing. Because a smart city depends
on a highly interdependent connected network, this increases the risk that a security
breach, hacking or technical issue such as a power cut could affect the entire system, withrepercussions in all sectors.297,298 There is also a concern about the ‘Big Brother’ dilemma – forsmart technology to efficiently relay information and adapt systems to residents’ needs, bigdata must be collected using things like cameras, sensors, and IoT tools.299
To maintain citizens’ trust in the smart city concept, effective policies and regulations will
be needed to protect residents’ privacy and personal information. Standardization plays animportant role towards bringing trust amongst citizens, thanks to transparency and open
processes, which is key for citizens acceptance and confidence.

295. Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)
296. AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)297. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)298. Emerging Technologies And Smart Cities (Forbes, 2021)
299. Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

「拡張現実」，「量子コンピューティング」の革新と密接に関連しており，これらは世界中のスマートシティの展開を支える上で不可欠です。295
スマート シティは，住民の生活条件を改善し，より持続可能な生活環境をサポートすることができます。
これは，スマート グリッド (「エネルギー」を参照)，省エネの建材と建物，廃棄物やその他のロジスティッ
ク ニーズに対する効率的なデジタル管理システム，および市民へのサービスを統合することによって実現されます。296 これにより，リソースがより効率的に使用され，回復力があり，より適切に接続されたシステムが実現します。ただし，このように接続性が高まると，プライバシーとビッグデータ共有に関連するリスクも生じます。スマートシティは相互依存性の高い接続されたネットワークに依存しているため，セキュリティ違反，ハッキング，または停電などの技術的な問題がシステム全体に影響を与え，すべてのセクターに影響を与えるリスクが高まります。297,298 また，「Big Brother」のジレンマについての懸念もあります。スマート テクノロジーが情報を効率的に中継し，システムを住民のニーズに適応させるためには，カメラ，センサー，IoT ツールなどを使用してビッグ データを収集する必要があります。299
スマートシティのコンセプトに対する市民の信頼を維持するには，住民のプライバシーと個人情報を保護するための効果的な政策と規制が必要です。標準化は，市民の受容と信頼の鍵となる透明性と開放性のあるプロセスのおかげで，市民の間で信頼をもたらす上で重要な役割を果たします。

295.

Technology vision 2020. We, the post-digital people (Accenture, 2020)

296.

AGCS trend compass (Allianz, 2019)297.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

298.

Emerging Technologies And Smart Cities (Forbes, 2021)

299.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)‹›Technology

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO - Sustainable Cities and Communities• ISO 37106:2021, Sustainable cities and communities – Guidance on establishing smart city
operating models for sustainable communities• ISO - How do we build sustainable cities of the future?
• ISO - Protecting our privacy in smart cities• ISO 37122:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for smart cities• ISO - Building better cities for a net-zero carbon future• ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for resilient cities• ISO - Riding the bus the smart way

݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1/WG 11, Smart cities• ISO/IEC 24039, Information technology – Smart city digital platform reference architecture – Dataand service• ISO - Smart cities to benefit from new international
standards task force• ISO/IEC 30182:2017, Smart city concept model – Guidance for establishing a model fordata interoperability• ISO - The future looks smart• ISO - Designing tomorrow’s cities today

݁ ISO/TC 59/SC 17, Sustainability in buildings and civil engineering work

• ISO - Grenoble: the sustainable city

• ISO 21678:2020, Sustainability in buildings and civil engineering works – Indicators andbenchmarks – Principles, requirements and guidelines• ISO - Building resilient cities with new
International Standard• ISO - Changing the world with ISO standards on World
Cities Day

݁ ISO/TC 205, Building environment design• ISO 17800:2017, Facility smart grid information model• ISO - New International Standard for measuring theperformance of cities going “smart”

݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/JSCTF-TF 19, ISO, IEC and ITU Joint Smart Cities Task Force• ISO - Standards cooperation is key to making AI and smart
cities a reality• ISO - Stronger cities for the future: a new set ofInternational Standards just out• ISO - The city of the future will be shaped by standards‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 268, Sustainable cities and communities• ISO 37106:2021, Sustainable cities and communities – Guidance on establishing smart city
operating models for sustainable communities• ISO 37122:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for smart cities• ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities – Indicators for resilient cities݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1/WG 11, Smart cities• ISO/IEC 24039, Information technology – Smart city digital platform reference architecture – Dataand service• ISO/IEC 30182:2017, Smart city concept model – Guidance for establishing a model fordata interoperability݁◌ ISO/TC 59/SC 17, Sustainability in buildings and civil engineering work

• ISO 21678:2020, Sustainability in buildings and civil engineering works – Indicators andbenchmarks – Principles, requirements and guidelines݁◌ ISO/TC 205, Building environment design• ISO 17800:2017, Facility smart grid information model݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/JSCTF-TF 19, ISO, IEC and ITU Joint Smart Cities Task Force

関連するISOニュースストーリー• ISO - Sustainable Cities and Communities• ISO - How do we build sustainable cities of the future?
• ISO - Protecting our privacy in smart cities• ISO - Building better cities for a net-zero carbon future• ISO - Riding the bus the smart way• ISO - Smart cities to benefit from new international
standards task force• ISO - The future looks smart• ISO - Designing tomorrow’s cities today• ISO - Grenoble: the sustainable city

• ISO - Building resilient cities with new
International Standard• ISO - Changing the world with ISO standards on
World Cities Day• ISO - New International Standard for measuring theperformance of cities going “smart”• ISO - Standards cooperation is key to making AI andsmart cities a reality• ISO - Stronger cities for the future: a new set ofInternational Standards just out• ISO - The city of the future will be shaped by standards‹›

Technology

Smart manufacturing
New generation plastics | Additive manufacturing
Smart manufacturing refers to multiple ‘new normals’ in the context of manufacturing – thatis, how industry will leverage the application of new disruptive technologies such as ‘Artificial
intelligence’, ‘Edge computing’, ‘Robotics’, ‘Additive manufacturing’ (3D printing), ‘Gene
editing’ and the ‘Internet of Things’, to change the face of traditional manufacturing. Smart
manufacturing has been described as a “fusion of the digital, biological and physical world”300
and represents a change that is so significant that it is sometimes referred to as the ‘fourthindustrial revolution’.301 Smart manufacturing could represent an important opportunity to boost
sustainable manufacturing and, as its implementation expands, it will be essential to develop
a better understanding of how it can contribute to sustainable development while improving
system efficiency.302 Below, we explore one industry that will hopefully benefit from smart
manufacturing to increase sustainability (the plastics industry), and one key enabler of smart
manufacturing that is undergoing rapid development and expansion (additive manufacturing).

300. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
301.

White paper on smart manufacturing (ISO Smart Manufacturing Coordinating Committee, 2021)

302. Sustainable and smart manufacturing: an integrated approach (Sustainability, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

スマート マニュファクチャリング
新世代のプラスチック | アディティブ マニュファクチャリングスマート マニュファクチャリングとは，製造のコンテキストにおける複数の「ニュー ノーマル」を指します。つまり，「人工知能」，「エッジ コンピューティング」，「ロボティクス」，「アディティブ マニュファクチャリング」(3Dプリンティング)，「遺伝子編集」，および「モノのインターネット」によって，従来の製造業の様相が変わります。スマート マニュファクチャリングは，「デジタル，生物学，および物理世界の融合」
300 と表現されており，「第 4 次産業革命」と呼ばれることもあるほど重要な変化を表しています。301 ス

マート マニュファクチャリングは，持続可能な製造を後押しする重要な機会となる可能性があり，その実装が拡大するにつれて，システムの効率を改善しながら持続可能な開発にどのように貢献できるかをよりよく理解することが不可欠になります。302 以下では，持続可能性を高めるためにスマート マニュ
ファクチャリングの恩恵を受けることが期待される 1 つの業界 (プラスチック業界) と，急速な発展と拡大を遂げているスマート マニュファクチャリングの主要な実現要因 (アディティブ マニュファクチャリング) について説明します。

300.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

301.

White paper on smart manufacturing (ISO Smart Manufacturing Coordinating Committee, 2021)

302.

Sustainable and smart manufacturing: an integrated approach (Sustainability, 2020)‹›

Technology

New generation plastics

Related trends:
Additive manufacturing,
Sustainable production

Today’s plastics, with a predominantly linear material flow, unquestionably face challenges, bothregarding CO2-emissions due to their fossil-basis, and to plastic pollution (unintended leakage
and subsequent accumulation of plastics in the environment or even the human body). The
question is, how will we ensure we have the materials for the future without compounding these
problems?
Many companies are developing alternatives based on renewable, biomass materials, including
e.g. flax, mushrooms, and shrimp shells.303,304 The formulation of existing plastics can also bechanged to make them more degradable305 and, finally, innovations in recycling technologies
will make manufacturing the materials of the future more sustainable.
As one of the largest sectors in the manufacturing industry, innovations in plastic production
systems themselves are also a key driver of change. The data collected by more efficientsensors and smart machinery (see ‘Internet of Things’) can improve the consistency of
products, limiting defects (and ultimately reducing plastic pollution), reducing energy
consumption and costs, and improving competitiveness.306,307

303. Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity – finally, maybe – goesback to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
304. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)305. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)306. Smart Manufacturing in Plastic Injection Molding (Manufacturing Tomorrow, 2017)307. Smart Manufacturing in Plastic Injection Molding (Manufacturing Tomorrow, 2021)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

新世代のプラスチック
今日のプラスチックは，主に直線的な物質の流れを持っており，化石ベースによる CO2 排出と，プラス
チック汚染 (意図しない漏出とそれに続く環境や人体へのプラスチックの蓄積) の両方に関して，疑いの余地なく課題に直面しています。課題は，これらの問題を悪化させずに，将来の材料を確保するにはどうすればよいかということです。
多くの企業が，たとえば，亜麻，キノコ，エビの殻などの再生可能なバイオマス材料に基づく代替品を開発しています。303,304 既存のプラスチックの配合を変更して，より分解しやすくすることもできます。305 最
終的に，リサイクル技術の革新により，未来の材料の製造がより持続可能なものになります。
製造業の最大のセクターの 1 つとして，プラスチック生産システム自体の革新も変化の重要な原動力です。より効率的なセンサーとスマートな機械 (「モノのインターネット」を参照) によって収集されたデータ
は，製品の一貫性を向上させ，欠陥を制限し (最終的にはプラスチック汚染を減らし)，エネルギー消費とコストを削減し，競争力を向上させることができます。306,307

303.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s. Medicine gets trippy, solar takes over, and humanity – finally, maybe – goesback to the moon (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

304.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)305.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

306.

Smart Manufacturing in Plastic Injection Molding (Manufacturing Tomorrow, 2017)

307.

Smart Manufacturing in Plastic Injection Molding (Manufacturing Tomorrow, 2021)‹›

Technology

関連するトレンド：アディ
ティブ マニュファクチャリ
ング, 持続可能な生産

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 61, Plastics• ISO - Rethinking the future of plastics• ISO 16620-1:2015, Plastics – Biobased content – Part 1: General principles• ISO - Winning the battle against plastic
pollution with International Standards on World
Environment Day!

• ISO 17088:2021, Plastics – Organic recycling – Specifications for compostable plastics‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 61, Plastics• ISO 16620-1:2015, Plastics – Biobased content – Part 1: General principles• ISO 17088:2021, Plastics – Organic recycling – Specifications for compostable plastics‹›

Technology• ISO - Rethinking the future of plastics• ISO - Winning the battle against plastic
pollution with International Standards on World
Environment Day!

Additive manufacturing

Related trends: Customized
products, Changing
trade patterns, New
generation plastics,
Sustainable production

Additive manufacturing produces objects through a process of layering together raw
materials. This is different to traditional (subtractive) manufacturing, which creates parts outof raw materials.308 Additive manufacturing is widely known as ‘3D printing’, but this style ofmanufacturing also Includes ‘4D printing’, an emerging approach that allows the manufacture of
products that respond to things like heat, light, and the passing of time.309
The use of additive manufacturing is expected to increase, with many new applications for bothcommercial and personal use. The ability to print products for personal use will open markets for
blueprints and designs, while increasing the customization options available to consumers (see‘Customized products’). A potentially endless range of products could be manufactured using
additive methods, including machinery parts, consumer goods such as shoes and furniture andhealthcare products like hearing aids and prosthetics.310,311
If additive manufacturing grows, we can expect an increased impact on trade – perhaps areduction in the transport of goods, along with an increase in the transport of raw materials.
Overall, this would be expected to reduce global freight volume.312
Of course, additive manufacturing has some challenges, such as ensuring cybersecurity andmanagement of intellectual property. Companies and governments will need to be attentive toemerging issues to ensure the benefits of additive manufacturing are enjoyed by all.
308. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)309. 2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)
310.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

311.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

312. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

アディティブ マニュファクチャリング
アディティブ マニュファクチャリングは，原材料を重ね合わせるプロセスを通じてオブジェクトを生成します。これは，原材料から部品を作成する従来の (減法による) ものづくりとは異なります。308 アディ
ティブ マニュファクチャリングは「3D プリンティング」として広く知られていますが，この製造スタイルには，熱，光，時間の経過などに反応する製品の製造を可能にする新しいアプローチである「4D プリン
ティング」も含まれます。309
アディティブ マニュファクチャリングの使用は，商業用と個人用の両方で多くの新しい用途があり，増加すると予想されます。個人使用のために製品をプリンティングできるようになると，設計図やデザインの市場が開かれると同時に，消費者が利用できるカスタマイズの選択肢が増えます (「カスタマイズされた製品」を参照)。機械部品，靴や家具などの消費財，補聴器や義肢などのヘルスケア製品など，
アディティブ法を使用して潜在的に無限の範囲の製品を製造できます。310,311
アディティブ マニュファクチャリングが成長すれば，貿易への影響が高まることが予想されます。おそらく，商品の輸送が減少し，原材料の輸送が増加するでしょう。全体として，これにより世界の貨物量が減少すると予想されます。312
もちろん，アディティブ マニュファクチャリングには，サイバーセキュリティの確保や知的財産の管理など，いくつかの課題があります。企業や政府は，アディティブ マニュファクチャリングの恩恵をすべての人が享受できるようにするために，新たな問題に注意を払う必要があります。

308.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)309.

2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)

310.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

311.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

312.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›Technology

関連するトレンド：カスタマイズされた製品, 貿易形態の変化, 新世代のプラスチック, 持続可能な生産

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 261, Additive manufacturing• ISO - Silent game changersof the tech revolution• ISO/ASTM 52900:2021, Additive manufacturing – General principles – Fundamentals
and vocabulary• ISO - ISO and ASTM International
unveil framework for creating global
additive manufacturing standards• ISO/ASTM CD TR 52918, Additive manufacturing – Data formats – File format support, ecosystemand evolutions• ISO - Manufacturing our 3D future݁ ISO/IEC JTC 1, Information technology• White paper on Smart Manufacturing• ISO/IEC DIS 3532-2, Information technology – 3D Printing and scanning – Medical image-basedmodelling – Part 2: Segmentation• ISO/IEC 23510:2021, Information technology – 3D printing and scanning – Framework for an
Additive Manufacturing Service Platform (AMSP)݁ ISO/TC 184, Automation systems and integration• ISO/IEC TR 63306-1:2020, Smart manufacturing standards map (SM2) – Part 1: Framework• ISO/IEC TR 63306-2:2021, Smart manufacturing standards map (SM2) – Part 2: Catalogue݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board – groups• ISO/TMBG/SMCC, ISO Smart Manufacturing Coordination Committee• White paper on Smart Manufacturing‹
Foreword

Society›

Technology
Technology

Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 261, Additive manufacturing• ISO/ASTM 52900:2021, Additive manufacturing – General principles – Fundamentals
and vocabulary• ISO/ASTM CD TR 52918, Additive manufacturing – Data formats – File format support, ecosystemand evolutions

݁◌ ISO/IEC JTC 1, Information technology• ISO/IEC DIS 3532-2, Information technology – 3D Printing and scanning – Medical image-basedmodelling – Part 2: Segmentation• ISO/IEC 23510:2021, Information technology – 3D printing and scanning – Framework for an
Additive Manufacturing Service Platform (AMSP)݁◌ ISO/TC 184, Automation systems and integration• ISO/IEC TR 63306-1:2020, Smart manufacturing standards map (SM2) – Part 1: Framework• ISO/IEC TR 63306-2:2021, Smart manufacturing standards map (SM2) – Part 2: Catalogue݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board – groups• ISO/TMBG/SMCC, ISO Smart Manufacturing Coordination Committee• White paper on Smart Manufacturing‹›

Technology• ISO - Silent gamechangers of the techrevolution• ISO - ISO and ASTM International
unveil framework for creating global
additive manufacturing standards• ISO - Manufacturing our 3D future• White paper on Smart Manufacturing

Environment݁Energy݁

Environmental degradation

環境

݁
◌
݁
◌

エネルギー
環境悪化

Energy
Energy sources | Energy storage and distribution
Global energy use is increasing dramatically, primarily driven by increasing demand forelectricity. In addition, energy-related CO2 emissions are too high to meet international
commitments to the climate agenda by 2050. The only path to success will be throughtechnological innovations leading to energy savings, low/zero carbon energy sources, carbon
capture, and greater energy efficiency (see ‘Environmental degradation’ for more on resource
management and carbon storage).
The number of potential power sources is expected to increase over the next 30 years,
as technological innovations in energy production and storage make renewables and newgeneration batteries cheaper and more efficient. Changes in electricity markets, such as
growth in developing countries and regionalization of energy systems, will set the scene for
future evolutions in the sector.
Although energy trends involve significant technological and societal aspects, they have been
included in the environment section of this trend report because the evolution of the energy
sector is so interdependent with the global climate agenda 2050. From greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions reduction to energy efficiency and the increased use of renewable-energy sources
for power, heat or fuel, future innovations and standardization work in the energy sector musttake a sustainability lens.
Energy as a mega trend has a multiplicity of facets, not all of which can be included in thisreport. We focus our discussion on energy issues including the diversification of energy
sources, and innovations in access, storage, and distribution of energy, with a strong focus on
the transport sector and electricity market developments.

‹
Foreword

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Where to from here?

エネルギー
エネルギー源 | エネルギーの貯蔵と分配
世界のエネルギー使用量は劇的に増加していますが，これは主に電力需要の増加によるものです。さらに，エネルギー関連の CO2 排出量が多すぎて，2050 年までに気候問題に関する国際的な取り組みを達成できません。成功への唯一の道は，エネルギーの節約，低炭素/ゼロ炭素エネルギー源，炭素回収，およびより大きなエネルギー効率につながる技術革新によるものです（資源管理と炭素貯蔵の詳細については，「環境悪化」を参照）。
エネルギーの生産と貯蔵における技術革新により，再生可能エネルギーと新世代のバッテリーがより安価で効率的になるため，潜在的な電源の数は今後 30 年間で増加すると予想されます。発展途上国の成長やエネルギーシステムの地域化など，電力市場の変化は，この分野の将来の進化の背景を整えるでしょう。
エネルギーのトレンドには重要な技術的および社会的側面が含まれますが，エネルギー セクターの進化は 2050 年の地球規模の気候アジェンダと相互依存しているため，このトレンド レポートの環境セクションに含まれています。温室効果ガス (GHG) 排出削減からエネルギー効率まで，および，電力，熱，または燃料としての再生可能エネルギー源の使用の増加，エネルギー部門における将来のイノベーシ
ョンと標準化業務には，持続可能性のレンズが必要です。
メガ トレンドとしてのエネルギーにはさまざまな側面があり，そのすべてをこのレポートに含めることはできません。私たちは，エネルギー源の多様化，エネルギーのアクセス，貯蔵，分配における革新を含む
エネルギー問題に焦点を当て，輸送部門と電力市場の発展に重点を置いています。

‹›

Environment

Energy sources

Related trends: Natural
resource scarcity,
Sustainable production

The demand for energy continues to rise, linked to demographic and economic growth,
especially in the transport, industry, and construction sectors.313 With developing countries’
growing energy needs, it is expected that global energy demand will rise by 40-60% by
2050314 if we do not make additional energy savings.315
In parallel, the increasing awareness, pressure and need to reduce emissions and improveenergy security demonstrate the need to reconsider energy production and use patterns
across the globe. Already, the diversification of energy sources highlights progress in thisarea, with wind, solar, water, nuclear fusion, geothermal, bioenergy and others paving the way
towards low-carbon economies.
By ‘energy sources’, we consider here the resources or technical systems from which energy
can be extracted or recovered to be transported by a medium such as fuel or electricity (seeISO/IEC 13273, all parts). Although batteries technically fit this definition, they will be reviewed
in the Energy Storage section of this report.

313. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)314. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)315.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹
Foreword

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Environment
Environment

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Science

Where to from here?

エネルギー源
エネルギーの需要は，特に運輸，産業，建設部門で，人口動態と経済の成長に関連して増加し続けています。313 発展途上国のエネルギー需要が高まる中，さらなる省エネを行わなければ，世界のエネル
ギー需要は 2050 年までに 40 ～ 60% 増加すると予想されています。314,315
並行して，排出量を削減し，エネルギー安全保障を改善するという意識，圧力，および必要性の高まり
は，世界中でエネルギーの生産と使用のパターンを再考する必要性を示しています。エネルギー源の多様化はすでに，風力，太陽光，水力，核融合，地熱，バイオエネルギーなど，低炭素経済への道を開いているこの分野の進歩を際立たせています。
ここで「エネルギー源」とは，燃料や電気などの媒体によって輸送されるエネルギーを抽出または回収できるリソースまたは技術システムを考慮します (ISO/IEC 13273 のすべてのパートを参照)。バッテリ
ーは技術的にはこの定義に適合しますが，このレポートのエネルギーの貯蔵のセクションでレビューし
ます。

313.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

314.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)315.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹›

Environment

関連するトレンド：天然資源の不足, 持続可能な生産Towards decarbonization

While progress has been made worldwide to address climate targets,the constantly increasing energy needs of our global economy meanthat GHG emission levels will need to fall by two-thirds by 2050 toremain on track with Paris Agreement targets, highlighting the urgency
of decarbonization and energy-saving measures.316

disrupt the global energy sector.319 The costs of producing solar
energy in particular is expected to continue to fall as third generation
photovoltaics (designed for high power conversion efficiency, lowcost and efficient use of material) and concentrated solar power(CSP), using focused sunlight to generate heat and energy throughconventional steam turbines, continue to develop.320

Developments in renewable technologies show promise, andrenewables are the fastest growing means of energy production
globally with countries like China, the US, Germany, France, and Spain
investing heavily in these technologies.317 By renewables, we mean
all sources of energy that are not depleted upon extraction, because
they replenish at a rate faster than extraction can occur. This includes
solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power sources. As economies
become more reliant on electricity as a key energy carrier, renewables
could, in combination with nuclear energy, provide over half of total
electricity generation capacity by 2050.318

Another alternative to fossil fuel that may play a significant role in the
decarbonization process is nuclear energy through fission. Although
nuclear energy production is unpopular in some countries due tothe radioactive waste it creates and its connection to several recent
accidents, it is nevertheless expected to increase in the future,with countries like China, India, South Korea and Finland planningto continue using nuclear power.321 In addition, technologicalinnovations mean fusion fuel (deuterium and tritium) can now also be
extracted more sustainably from water and sea water, and guidelines
on waste management should increase its popularity in the future.322

In addition, renewables are becoming competitive with fossil fuels
faster than expected as prices drop, which has already started to
316.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

317.

Future Foresight. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)318. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)319.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

320. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)321. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
322. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

脱炭素化に向けてせ始めています。319 特に，太陽エネルギーを生成するコストは，第 3 世代の気候目標への取り組みは世界中で進められてきましたが，世界経済のエ

太陽光発電 (高い電力変換効率，低コスト，および材料の効率的な使用のた

ネルギー需要は常に増加しているため，パリ協定の目標を達成するためめに設計) と，従来の蒸気タービンを介して熱とエネルギーを生成するためにには，2050 年までに GHG 排出レベルを 3 分の 2 削減する必要があ集束された太陽光を使用する集光型太陽光発電 (CSP) が発展し続けるにつり，脱炭素化と省エネ対策の緊急性が強調されています。316

れて，引き続き低下すると予想されます。320

再生可能技術の発展は有望であり，中国，米国，ドイツ，フランス，スペインなどの国がこれらの技術に多額の投資を行っており，再生可能エネル
ギーは世界的に最も急速に成長しているエネルギー生産手段です。317
再生可能エネルギーとは，抽出しても枯渇しないすべてのエネルギー源を意味します。これは，抽出が発生するよりも速い速度で補充されるためです。これには，太陽光，風力，水力，および地熱の電源が含まれます。
経済が主要なエネルギー媒体としての電力への依存度を高めるにつれて，再生可能エネルギーは，原子力エネルギーと組み合わせて，2050 年

脱炭素化プロセスで重要な役割を果たす可能性のある化石燃料の別の代替
手段は，核分裂による原子力エネルギーです。原子力発電は，それが生み出す放射性廃棄物と最近のいくつかの事故との関係のために一部の国では人気がありませんが，中国，インド，韓国，フィンランドなどの国々が原子力の使用を継続することを計画しているため，将来的に増加すると予想されます。
321 さらに，技術革新により，核融合燃料 (重水素とトリチウム) を水と海水からより持続的に抽出できるようになり，廃棄物管理に関するガイドラインが将来的に普及するはずです。322までに総発電容量の半分以上を提供する可能性があります。318
さらに，再生可能エネルギーは，価格が下落するにつれて，予想よりも早く化石燃料と競合するようになり，すでに世界のエネルギー部門を混乱さ

316.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

317.

Future Foresight. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

318.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)319.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

320.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)321.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

322.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›

Environment

The future of fossil fuels

Current low-emission and renewable technologies cannot keep up
with increasing global energy demand.323 As a result, dependence
on the use of coal and oil is likely to continue for the next 20 years,
with projections showing that hydrocarbons might still meet around
70% of overall energy demand by 2050, even though demand is also
expected to decelerate in the 2040s.324,325
Trade routes may shift, however, as countries in Europe reduce theirreliance on fossil fuels and energy demand increases in emerging
economies (especially with an expected growth in the number ofcars), leading to a rise in oil trade between Asia and the Middle
East.326 Asia might become the largest global market for oil exports,
with scenarios suggesting that around 75% of the world’s oil will be
used in Asia, and China will likely consume more oil than the US as
early as 2030.327

The risk of continuing to rely on fossil fuel is that as demand forenergy and resources grow, competition will increase to accesslowering supplies, which could lead to conflict and international
disputes.328 Technological advances to open up new energy sources
and to make renewable-energy exploitation more efficient and costeffective can address this challenge in the long run.
At the same time, transition away from coal is predicted withrenewables like wind, solar and hydropower to surpass coal as themain source of electricity by 2030.329 Recent announcements during
the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26)
seem to support this prediction, with China and the US announcing
a collaboration on environmental standards related to reducing
emissions of GHGs in the 2020s.330

323. Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)324. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)
325. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)326. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
327. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)328. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)329. Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
330. U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s (U.S. Department of State, 2021)‹
Foreword

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Where to from here?

化石燃料の将来

化石燃料に依存し続けることのリスクは，エネルギーと資源の需要が高まるに現在の低排出および再生可能技術は，増大する世界的なエネルギー需要

つれて，競争が激化して供給量が減少し，対立や国際紛争につながる可能性に追いつくことができません。323 その結果，石炭と石油の使用への依存はがあることです。328 新しいエネルギー源を開拓し，再生可能エネルギーの利

今後 20 年間続く可能性が高く，2040 年代に需要の伸びが減速すると見用をより効率的かつ費用対効果の高いものにするための技術の進歩で，長期込まれていますが，2050 年までに炭化水素が全体のエネルギー需要の的にはこの課題に対処することができます。

約 70% を満たす可能性があることを示しています。 324,325

同時に，2030 年までに風力，太陽光，水力などの再生可能エネルギーが主

しかし，ヨーロッパの国々が化石燃料への依存を減らし，新興国でのエネ
ルギー需要が増加するにつれて (特に自動車の数の増加が予想されるため)，貿易ルートが変化する可能性があり，アジアと中東の間の石油貿易が増加する可能性があります。326 アジアは石油輸出先として世界最大の要な電力源として石炭を上回ることにより，石炭からの移行が予測されています。329 2021 年の国連気候変動会議 (COP 26) での最近の発表は，この予測を裏付けているようです。 中国と米国は，2020年代の温室効果ガスの排出削減に関連する環境基準に関する協力を発表しました。330市場になる可能性があり，シナリオでは，世界の石油の約 75% がアジアで使用され，中国は 2030 年には米国よりも多くの石油を消費する可能性が高いでしょう。327

323.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)

324.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)325.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

326.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

327.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

328.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)329.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

330.

U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s (U.S. Department of State, 2021)‹›

Environment

The case of shale oil and gas, and liquid natural gas

Shale oil and gas (extracted using fracking), and liquid naturalgas (LNG) are also increasingly relied on as fossil energy sources.
While they have been used for years, recent technological innovations
have opened more commercially-viable reserves globally. This has
shifted the balance of power from traditional oil exporters, to the US,for example, which is now the world’s leading oil producer.331,332 As aregion, southwest Asia/the Middle East is still expected to remain thelargest hydrocarbon-based producing region in the next decades, butthese countries are likely to become net energy importers as relianceon fossil fuel decreases.333 In this context, it is predicted that LNG will
become a key export resource.
The continued expansion of fracking will, however, strongly
depend on the evolution of international efforts towards a lowcarbon economy334, as drilling involves vast amounts of water, cancontaminate groundwater and release harmful GHGs. With the
COP 26 commitment of Ford, GM and four other automakers as wellas thirty governments to phase out sales of new gasoline and diesel-

fuelled vehicles by 2040, it is likely there will be pressure to increase
investment in renewables rather than in shale oil/gas and LNG.335

Conclusion

The strategy of shifting to sustainable energy sources could
dramatically change the outlook of the energy sector and ourcapacity to limit climate change.336 However, although renewablesources of energy evolve rapidly, they are unlikely to sustain demand
unless radical/disruptive innovations make them cheaper and more
efficient, in combination with international agreements to impose
emissions standards and subsidies to support the transition.
A key opportunity for the future is to consider green energy andalternative energy sources as a competitive advantage, rather than acostly transition, representing opportunities for development and job
creation in future economies.337, 338

331. Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future Scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)332. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)
333. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)334. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)335. 6 Automakers and 30 Countries Say They’ll Phase Out Gasoline Car (New York Times, 2021)
336. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)337. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)338. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹
Foreword

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Environment
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EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

シェールオイルとガス，液化天然ガスの場合はなく，再生可能エネルギーへの投資を増やす圧力がかかる可能性がありま

シェール オイルとガス (水力破砕を使用して抽出)，および液体天然ガス

す。335(LNG) も，化石エネルギー源としての依存度が高まっています。それらは何年も使用されてきましたが，最近の技術革新により，世界中でより商業的に実行可能な埋蔵量が開かれています。331,332 これにより，力のバラ

結論
持続可能なエネルギー源に移行する戦略は，エネルギー部門の見通しと気候

ンスが従来の石油輸出国から，たとえば現在世界有数の石油生産国であ変動を制限する私たちの能力を劇的に変える可能性があります。336 しかし，る米国にシフトしています。地域として，南西アジア/中東は，今後数十年再生可能エネルギー源は急速に進化していますが，排出基準を課す国際協間，最大の炭化水素ベースの生産地域であり続けると予想されますが，定や移行を支援するための補助金と組み合わせて，急進的/破壊的な技術革

化石燃料への依存が減少するにつれて，これらの国は純エネルギー輸入

新がそれらをより安価で効率的にしない限り，需要を維持する可能性は低い国になる可能性があります。333 この意味で，LNGは重要な輸出資源になです。

ると予測されています。
しかし，水力破砕は大量の水を必要とし，地下水を汚染し，有害な温室効
果ガスを放出する可能性があるため，水力破砕の継続的な拡大は，低炭
素経済に向けた国際的な取り組みの進展に大きく依存します。334 フォー

将来の重要な機会は，コストのかかる移行ではなく，将来の経済における開発と雇用創出の機会を表す，競争上の優位性としてグリーン エネルギーと代替エネルギー源を検討することです。337,338

ド，GM，その他の 4社の自動車メーカー，および 30 か国の政府が 2040
年までに新しいガソリンおよびディーゼル燃料車の販売を段階的に廃止するという COP 26 のコミットメントにより，シェールオイル/ガスやLNG で

331.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future Scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)

332.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)333.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)334.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)335.

6 Automakers and 30 Countries Say They’ll Phase Out Gasoline Car (New York Times, 2021)

336.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

337.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)

338.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)‹›

Environment

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 301, Energy management and energy savings• ISO - Affordable and Clean Energy• ISO/IEC 13273-1:2015, Energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Common internationalterminology – Part 1: Energy efficiency• ISO - Climate Action• ISO/IEC 13273-2:2015, Energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Common internationalterminology – Part 2: Renewable energy sources• ISO - Betting on biomass• ISO - Power of the sun• ISO - The rise of energy efficiency

݁ ISO/TC 85, Nuclear energy, nuclear technologies, and radiological protection• ISO/TR 4450:2020, Quality management systems – Guidance for the application of
ISO 19443:2018,• ISO/ASTM 51276:2019, Practice for use of a polymethylmethacrylate dosimetry system

݁ ISO/TC 197, Hydrogen technologies• ISO/CD 19885-1, Gaseous hydrogen – Fuelling protocols for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles – Part 1:
Design and development process for fuelling protocols

݁ ISO/TC 207/SC 7, Greenhouse gas management and related activities• ISO/WD 14068, Greenhouse gas management and related activities – Carbon neutrality‹
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関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 301, Energy management and energy savings• ISO/IEC 13273-1:2015, Energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Common internationalterminology – Part 1: Energy efficiency• ISO/IEC 13273-2:2015, Energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Common internationalterminology – Part 2: Renewable energy sources݁◌ ISO/TC 85, Nuclear energy, nuclear technologies, and radiological protection• ISO/TR 4450:2020, Quality management systems – Guidance for the application of
ISO 19443:2018,• ISO/ASTM 51276:2019, Practice for use of a polymethylmethacrylate dosimetry system݁◌ ISO/TC 197, Hydrogen technologies• ISO/CD 19885-1, Gaseous hydrogen – Fuelling protocols for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles – Part 1:
Design and development process for fuelling protocols

݁◌ ISO/TC 207/SC 7, Greenhouse gas management and related activities• ISO/WD 14068, Greenhouse gas management and related activities – Carbon neutrality‹›

Environment• ISO - Affordable and Clean Energy• ISO - Climate Action• ISO - Power of the sun• ISO - Betting on biomass• ISO - The rise of energy efficiency

Energy storage

Related trends: Internet ofThings, Natural resource
scarcity, Smart cities

Energy storage encompasses multiple technologies to accumulate or retain energy in either
thermal (e.g. solar thermal plants), chemical (current batteries) or mechanical/kinetic (e.g.
hydro, or compressed air) systems which can then be released when needed. The desired
shift towards a net-zero economy is driving innovation in energy storage and research into
direct power conversion.339,340 Our increasingly, complex energy sector is supplying moreinterdependent technologies which will require more efficient and cheaper tools to addressenergy demand. As a result, innovation in battery technologies, fuel alternatives, energy
efficient (smart) appliances/buildings/cities, process energy-improvements (industry), anddirect power conversion technologies such as fuel cells should be expected to distribute
power to an increasing amount of people in the near future.341

339. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)
340. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)
341.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹
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エネルギー貯蔵エネルギー貯蔵には，熱（太陽熱発電所など），化学（現在のバッテリー），または機械的/運動（水力，圧縮空気など）システムのいずれかでエネルギーを蓄積または保持するための複数の技術が含まれており，必要に応じて放出することができます。ネットゼロ経済への望ましいシフトは，エネルギ
ー貯蔵の革新と直接電力変換の研究を推進しています。339,340 ますます複雑化するエネルギー部
門は，エネルギー需要に対応するためのより効率的で安価なツールを必要とする，より相互依存する技術を提供しています。その結果，バッテリー技術，代替燃料，エネルギー効率の高い（スマート）
機器/建物/都市，プロセスエネルギーの改善（産業），および燃料電池などの直接電力変換技術の革新により，近い将来，人々への電力の分配量が増加することが期待されます。341

339.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

340.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

341.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)‹›

Environment

関連するトレンド： モノのイン
ターネット, 天然資源の不足,
スマートシティ

Batteries

Energy storage will play a crucial role in delivering lower-cost
renewable energy in a more flexible and reliable manner. A major
driver of energy storage technologies is to better integrateintermittent renewable-energy sources into the grid. As intermittency
requires another energy source to fill in gaps, energy storage –and large battery banks especially – can provide a solution. The
race for leadership in energy storage solutions that increase themarket infiltration/diffusion of renewables has already begun, withorganizations investing heavily in new battery technologies. Giantbattery ‘giga-factories’ are being built around the globe to address
the demand, as a testament to this increased interest.
As of today, no battery can store and release significant volumesof electricity in an affordable manner. The next generations ofbatteries will need improvements to battery life and energy density,
Battery production will also need to become cleaner and more
efficient.342 Lithium-ion is the current leading battery technology,
powering laptops and electric cars alike, but rare and expensive
materials required to build these batteries means they also needto evolve. Battery technology has improved significantly over thelast two decades and progress continues. Extensive research anddevelopment are currently underway to improve battery chemistry

and identify better battery constituents, to allow a greater energydensity at lower costs. Engineers are researching new cathodematerials like graphene or hexagonal boron-nitride, and at replacing
lithium with sodium, aluminum, or zinc to build cheaper products.
Alternative research into solid-state batteries might also pave theway forward. Such changes could lead to smaller batteries that last
longer, charge faster and conduct less heat.343,344
A consideration for the future, however, is the cost of energy storage
using batteries. Storing and discharging electricity comes at a cost(capital plus energy consumption and losses) which must be added
to electricity-production costs. Using power directly can ultimately
be cheaper and investing in the efficient distribution and sharing/
trading of direct power sources could be a viable alternative longterm investment choice.

342. Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
343. Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)
344. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

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Environment
Environment

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Where to from here?

バッテリー

ー密度を実現するための広範な研究開発が進行中です。技術者は，グラフェン

エネルギー貯蔵は，より柔軟で信頼性の高い方法で低コストの再生可能エや六方晶窒化ホウ素などの新しいカソード材料を研究しており，また，リチウムネルギーを提供する上で重要な役割を果たします。エネルギー貯蔵技術のをナトリウム，アルミニウム，または亜鉛に置き換えてより安価な製品を製造す

主な原動力は，断続的な再生可能エネルギー源を電力網にうまく統合する

ることを研究しています。全固体電池の代替研究も，前進への道を開くかもしれことです。断続性はギャップを埋めるために別のエネルギー源を必要とするません。このような変更により，より長持ちし，充電が速くなり，熱伝導が少ない

ため，エネルギー貯蔵，特に大規模なバッテリーバンクが解決策を提供でき

小型のバッテリーが実現する可能性があります。343,344ます。再生可能エネルギーの市場への浸透/普及を促進するエネルギー貯
蔵ソリューションの主導権をめぐる競争はすでに始まっており，組織は新しいバッテリー技術に多額の投資を行っています。巨大なバッテリー「ギガファクトリー」が需要に対応するために世界中で建設されており，この関心の高まりを証明しています。

ただし，将来の考慮事項は，バッテリーを使用したエネルギー貯蔵のコストです。電気の貯蔵と放電にはコスト (資本とエネルギーの消費と損失) がかかり，これを発電コストに追加する必要があります。電力を直接使用することは，最終的にはより安くなる可能性があり，直接電力源の効率的な分配と共有/取引への投資は，実行可能な代替への長期投資の選択肢になる可能性があります。

現在のところ，大量の電力を手頃な価格で蓄えたり放電したりできるバッテ
リーはありません。次世代のバッテリーでは，バッテリーの寿命とエネルギ
ー密度を改善する必要があります。バッテリーの生産も，よりクリーンで効率的になる必要があります。342 リチウムイオンは，ノートパソコンや電気自動車に電力を供給している現在の主要なバッテリー技術ですが，これらのバッテリーを構築するために必要な希少で高価な材料は，それらも進化する必要があることを意味します。バッテリー技術は過去 20 年間で大幅に改善され，進歩が続いています。現在，バッテリーの化学的性質を改善し，より優れたバッテリー構成要素を特定して，より低コストでより大きなエネルギ

342.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

343.

Ten Trends That Will Shape Science in the 2020s (Smithsonian Magazine, 2020)

344.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Environment

Power to X – Direct power conversion

Power to X technologies, also known as direct power conversion, aretechnologies aiming to transform sources of energy (e.g. renewablesources like sunlight or wind and gases like hydrogen and methane)directly into heat, electricity, chemicals, or fuel through a processof electrolysis or synthesis. This energy can then be stored orused to manufacture goods and power various systems.345 Powerto X technologies therefore provide potential avenues to help
decarbonize energy-intensive industries with high CO2 emissions,such as construction, manufacturing, and transport.
Green hydrogen has received particular attention for its potential totransform the energy sector, with the International Energy Agency(IEA) highlighting the role it could play in reducing global CO2
emissions. Green hydrogen is carbon-neutral and is produced using
electrolysis from renewable resources, as opposed to the steam
reforming of natural gases (fossil fuel) used to produce grey and bluehydrogen. Until recently, the high costs of producing and storing
green hydrogen have been a major barrier to its widespread use,
but technological advances (e.g. better electrolysers and surplus
electricity) are now making green hydrogen an attractive option346– trend reports suggest that efficient electrolysers to produce
green hydrogen as cheaply as its grey or blue counterpart could be
developed within the next decade.347 In addition, projects such as
Gigastack explore the production of green hydrogen at industrial
scale, integrating electrolysers directly into offshore wind farms to
produce green hydrogen.348
Challenges remain however for the efficient storage and conversionof hydrogen and other Power to X innovations, and existing
infrastructure will need updating to effectively integrate thesetechnologies.349 A current transition strategy for lower-carbon fuelsources is the integration of hydrogen into natural-gas networks (toprepare for the development of power-to-gas processes), which
improves the energy efficiency of the resulting fuel mixture.350

345. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)346. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)
347. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)
348. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)
349. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)
350. Technical and economic conditions for injecting hydrogen into natural gas networks (GRTgaz, 2019)‹
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Power to X – 直接電力変換

水素の製造と貯蔵にかかる高いコストが，その普及に対する大きな障壁で直接電力変換とも呼ばれる Power to X テクノロジーは，エネルギー源 (太したが，技術進歩 (電解槽の改良や余剰電力など)によりグリーン水素は魅

陽光や風などの再生可能エネルギー源，水素やメタンなどのガスなど) を，力的な選択肢になりつつあります。346 トレンド報告によると，グリーン水素

電気分解または合成のプロセスを通じて熱，電気，化学物質，または燃料

は，グレーまたはブルー水素と同じくらい安価に生成する効率的な電解槽に直接変換することを目的としたテクノロジーです。このエネルギーは，貯が，今後 10 年以内に開発される可能性があります。347 さらに，Gigastack

蔵したり，商品を製造したり，さまざまなシステムに電力を供給するためになどのプロジェクトでは，産業規模でのグリーン水素の生産を調査し，電解使用したりできます。345 したがって，Power to X テクノロジーは，建設，製槽を洋上風力発電所に直接統合してグリーン水素を生産します。348

造，輸送など，CO2 排出量の多いエネルギー集約型産業の脱炭素化を支援する潜在的な手段を提供します。

ただし，水素の効率的な貯蔵と変換，およびその他の Power to X イノベー

グリーン水素は，エネルギー部門を変革する可能性があることで特に注目のインフラストラクチャーを更新する必要があります。349 低炭素燃料源のションには課題が残っており，これらの技術を効果的に統合するには，既存されており，国際エネルギー機関 (IEA) は，世界の CO2 排出量を削減す

現在の移行戦略は，水素を天然ガス ネットワークに統合することであり (発る上でグリーン水素が果たすことができる役割を強調しています。グリーン

電からガスへのプロセスの開発に備えるため)，結果として得られる混合燃

水素はカーボン ニュートラルであり，再生可能資源からの電気分解を使用

料のエネルギー効率を向上させます。350

して生成されます。これは，グレー水素とブルー水素の生成に使用される
天然ガス (化石燃料) の水蒸気改質とは対照的です。最近まで，グリーン

345.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)346.

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)

347.

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)

348.

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)

349.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)350.

Technical and economic conditions for injecting hydrogen into natural gas networks (GRTgaz, 2019)‹›

Environment

Fuel substitution

According to some forecasts, energy use in the transport sector
might rise by 45% of 2010 figures by 2040.351 Improving energy
efficiency and transitioning to alternative technologies to power thetransport sector is therefore essential to achieve GHG reduction
targets and reduce overall power consumption.
The desire to shift our energy use away from fossil fuels haspropelled research into ‘clean cars’, which are leading innovation inenergy storage and distribution, with vehicles readily available insome markets. Clean cars can be defined as electrically-propelledvehicles using hydrogen fuel cells, batteries or a combination of
methods also known as hybrid. This last category does, however,still rely partly on combustion engines, so considering them as clean
is debatable. The main challenges facing clean cars are ensuring
fuel economy for consumers, delivering performance and reliability
at a cost competitive with conventional vehicles, and ensuring thatelectrical grids have the capacity to cope with the increased demand
from clean cars. However, the emergence of clean cars also opens
up possibilities of using the transport network as distributed-energy
storage system within future smart grids.352,353 In such a system,
351.

electric cars could act as batteries to absorb grid excess power
during times of low demand and reinject energy in power grids at
peak hours.354
Hybrid and electric engines should soon become the norm forpersonal vehicles and are expected to successfully compete withinternal combustion engines by 2030 thanks to new generation
batteries.355 Similarly, the rise of shale gas and biofuels suggests theshare of natural-gas powered vehicles could also increase in regions
where it is abundant (and therefore cheaper), though difficulties instoring natural gas (pressurized tanks) is a challenge that still needs
addressing. The shape of the private-vehicle market and which
system take the lead will strongly depend on incoming innovations
and be driven by consumer choices in developing countries.356

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)352. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
353. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)354. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)355. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)356. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
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代替燃料

このようなシステムでは，電気自動車がバッテリーとして機能し，需要の少な

いくつかの予測によると，運輸部門のエネルギー使用量は 2040 年まで

い時間帯に電力網の余剰電力を吸収し，ピーク時に電力網にエネルギーをに 2010 年の数値の 45% 増加する可能性があります。351 したがって，再注入することができます。354

GHG 削減目標を達成し，全体的な電力消費を削減するには，エネルギー
効率を改善し，運輸部門に電力を供給する代替技術に移行することが不可欠です。

ハイブリッドおよび電気エンジンは，まもなく個人用車両の標準となり，新世
代のバッテリーのおかげで，2030 年までに内燃エンジンとうまく競合することが期待されています。355 同様に，シェールガスとバイオ燃料の台頭は，天

私たちのエネルギー使用を化石燃料から転換したいという願望は，一部

然ガスが豊富にある（したがって安価な）地域では，天然ガスを動力源とすの市場で容易に入手可能な車両で，エネルギーの貯蔵と分配の革新をリる車両のシェアも増加する可能性があることを示唆していますが，天然ガス

ードする「クリーンカー」への研究を推進しています。クリーンカーは，水素（加圧タンク）の貯蔵の難しさは，まだ対処が必要な課題です。自家用車市

燃料電池，バッテリー，またはハイブリッドとも呼ばれる方法の組み合わせ

場の形とどのシステムが主導権を握るかは，今後のイノベーションに大きくを使用する電気推進車両として定義できます。ただし，この最後のカテゴリ依存し，発展途上国の消費者の選択によって左右されます。356

ーは依然として燃焼エンジンに部分的に依存しているため，それらをクリーンと見なすことには議論の余地があります。クリーンカーが直面している
主な課題は，消費者からの燃費を確実にすること，従来の車両と競争力のある価格で性能と信頼性を提供すること，およびクリーンカーからの需要の増加に対応する電力網の容量を確実にすることです。ただし，クリー
ンな自動車の出現は，将来のスマート グリッド内の分散型エネルギー貯蔵システムとして輸送ネットワークを使用する可能性も開きます。352,353

351.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)352.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

353.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

354.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

355.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

356.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›

Environment

Commercial fleets, however, are still likely to rely on fossil fueland diesel for some time to come. For alternative engines to truly
compete with conventional vehicles, improvements will be requiredin terms of battery cost, size, weight and power to increase therange possible on a single charge; the number of charging points
available; and the charging time required to power up the car.357,358,359
One key technology to watch is hydrogen-powered fuel cells as apotential solution for shipping and heavy vehicles.360 Commercial
transport (buses, commercial vehicles, delivery fleets, and trucks) isoften seen as the most promising sector to promote hydrogen as anenergy carrier in order to cut emissions, though costs and efficiency
improvements are required before the technology is ready to bescaled up.361

to ships while at berth instead of them relying on their engines.
This transition is slow, however, filled with distrust and minimal
investments.362 For aircraft, a full transition to electric is likely further
down the line (2050+), whether it be battery or solar based, thoughbattery-powered electric aircraft could start being deployed as earlyas 2025 for flights under 800 km.363

Innovations in other categories of the transport sector are also
emerging, including hybrid systems for ships and aircraft. For ships,
using natural gas, marine diesel-gas or heavy fuel-oil to power a
tri-fuel diesel electric propulsion system is entering the market as
a possible alternative. Another is the current transition towards
shore-side power, whereby shipping ports provide electric power
357. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)358. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)359. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)
360. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
361.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)362. Shore-side power. A key role to play in greener shipping (Ship Technology, 2016)363. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)‹
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ただし，商用フリートは，しばらくの間，化石燃料とディーゼルに依存する不信感に満ちていて，投資は最小限です。362 航空機については，電池式可能性があります。代替エンジンが従来の車両と真に競合するためにであろうとソーラー式であろうと，電気への完全な移行はさらに先 (2050年

は，バッテリーのコスト，サイズ，重量，出力，および1回の充電で可能な以降) になる可能性がありますが，バッテリー駆動の電気航空機は，

走行距離；利用可能な充電所の数；必要な充電時間の点で改良が必要で800km未満の飛行のために早ければ2025年に展開される可能性がありす。357,358,359 注目すべき重要な技術の 1 つは，船舶や大型車両向けのます。363

潜在的なソリューションとしての水素燃料電池です。360 商用輸送 (バス，
商用車，配送車，トラック) は，排出量を削減するためにエネルギー媒体として水素を促進する最も有望なセクターと見なされることがよくあります
が，技術を拡張する準備が整う前に，コストと効率の改善が必要です。361
船舶や航空機用のハイブリッド システムなど，輸送部門の他のカテゴリーのイノベーションも生まれています。船舶の場合，天然ガス，船舶用ディー
ゼル ガス，または重油を使用して三元燃料ディーゼル電気推進システムに電力を供給することが，可能な代替手段として市場に参入しています。
もう 1 つは，船舶がエンジンに依存するのではなく，停泊中に船積み港が電力を供給する陸上側電力への現在の移行です。この移行はゆっくり
で，

357.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

358.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

359.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

360.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

361.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

362.

Shore-side power. A key role to play in greener shipping (Ship Technology, 2016)363.

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2020)‹›

Environment

Energy distribution

Smart technologies

The digitalization of the energy sector

The digitalization of our economies, with advances in, for example,
the ‘Internet of Things’ and big data analytics, has radically changedenergy transmission, distribution requirements and demand.
Although this implies greater energy use, it also holds promises tooptimize energy usage.364 The era of smart technologies is predicted
to rapidly expand, but these technologies also raise new security andprivacy questions that will need to be addressed (see ‘Tech risks’).
Similarly, electricity grids will become more complex, with more
actors involved, creating greater challenges for risk management andgreater potential for systemic failure.365‘Smart’ technologies are not well defined, but generally refer tothree kinds of objects: smart devices that can be programmed
and have some level of automation but no connectivity (e.g. asmart thermostat or coffee machine); connected devices that arecontrolled via wirelessly through Bluetooth or Wi-Fi (e.g. wearables,
smartphones), and IoT devices that connect to the Internet and cansend and receive data between other devices and systems.

In terms of energy storage and distribution, smart technologies (suchas smart grids) will blur the lines between supplier and end user,
by allowing businesses and households alike to track and generate
their own energy supplies (and even share or sell their surplus). By
including operational and energy measures along the supply chain(e.g. smart meters), and due to big-data analytics and machinelearning, smart technologies could predict system failures or allow
devices and systems to adjust energy use in response to specificconditions. The latter could include, for example. being active when
supply is abundant and inactive or in battery-saving mode when
supply is limited.366,367 This could lead to overall energy savings andmore efficiency in the system.

364. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)365. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)366. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)367. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹
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スマートテクノロジー

エネルギー分配「スマート」テクノロジーは明確に定義されていませんが，一般的に次の 3
種類のオブジェクトを指します。プログラム可能で，ある程度の自動化がエネルギー部門のデジタル化「モノのインターネット」やビッグデータ分析などの進歩を伴う私たちの経済のデジタル化は，エネルギーの送電，配電の要件と需要を根本的に変化させました。これはより多くのエネルギー使用を意味しますが，エネ
ルギー使用を最適化するという約束もあります。364 スマートテクノロジーの時代は急速に拡大すると予測されていますが，これらのテクノロジー
は，対処する必要がある新しいセキュリティとプライバシーの問題も引き起こします (「技術リスク」を参照)。同様に，電力網はより複雑になり，より多くの関係者が関与するようになり，リスク管理の課題が大きくなり，
システム障害の可能性が大きくなります。365

可能であるが接続性がないスマート デバイス (スマート サーモスタットやコーヒー マシンなど)。 Bluetooth または Wi-Fi を介してワイヤレスで制御される接続デバイス (ウェアラブル，スマートフォンなど)，およびインターネットに接続し，他のデバイスやシステムとの間でデータを送受信できる IoT
デバイス。
エネルギーの貯蔵と分配に関しては，スマート テクノロジー (スマート グリッドなど) により，企業と家庭が同様に独自のエネルギー供給を追跡および生成できるようになり (さらには余剰分を共有または販売できるようになる)，サプラ
イヤーとエンド ユーザーの間の境界が曖昧になります。サプライ チェーン (スマート メーターなど) に沿って運用およびエネルギー対策を含めることにより，ビッグデータ分析と機械学習により，スマート テクノロジーはシステム障害を予測し，デバイスやシステムが特定の条件に応じてエネルギー使用を調整できるようにすることができます。後者には，たとえば次のものが含まれます。供給が豊富なときにアクティブになり，供給が制限されているときに非アクティブになるかバッテリー節約モードになります。366,367 これにより，全体的なエネル
ギーが節約され，システムの効率が向上します。

364.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)365.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

366.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

367.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›

Environment

Beyond those promises, smart technologies, as a whole, raise new
security and privacy questions, such as how household, energy datais collected and stored in order to predict grid conditions. Guidelines
and regulations will be required to protect users and promote goodpractice in how to deal with sensitive data and ensure privacy andsecurity (see ‘Data privacy’).368

Ultra high-voltage direct-current transmission lines

Ultra high-voltage direct-current (UHVDC) transmission lines are
expected to become the main electricity-transmission technology
to enable a more efficient, bulk-power transfer over long distances,than alternating current (AC).369 Currently, over 250 gigawatts ofinterconnectors and high-voltage transmission links are installed
globally, which is expected to increase exponentially towards 2030,
with countries like China, India, the US, and the EU heavily investingin the technology.370
The higher voltage available in energy transmission technologies will
enable the movement of energy as electricity over long distancesrather than relying on moving energy resources themselves. By
carrying electricity directly from the source to where it is needed
and then used, it will be more efficient and potentially cheaper thanexisting technologies. This in turn will make it attractive to use andgiving it the power to change the economics of energy distribution.371
This will have a significant impact on shipping in particular, which
will no longer be needed to transport large quantities of coal and oil.
Some estimates suggest that “energy-related shipping might decline
by 50% for coal and 25% for oil by 2050.”372
It will also promote emissions reductions and the transition to a
low-carbon economy. UHVDC can increase the attractiveness ofrenewables by addressing their apparent lack of reliability – bytransferring electricity from areas with a surplus or high production
capacity to other areas across interconnected systems, operators
can adjust supply and demand efficiently.373 This is possible thanks
to innovative sensors and controls that allow minute-by-minutevariances in the direction and magnitude of flow. In addition, thereduced need to ship energy resources will help lower emissions
from the transport industry.

368. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)369. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)
370. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)
371.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)372. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)373. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹
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Where to from here?

これらの約束を超えて，スマート技術は全体として，グリッドの状態を予測するために家庭のエネルギーデータがどのように収集および保存されるかなど，セキュリティとプライバシーに関する新たな問題を引き起こします。ユーザーを保護し，機密データを処理してプライバシーとセキュリティを確保する方法の適切な実践を促進するために，ガイドラインと規制が必要にな
ります (「データ保護」を参照)。368て移動できるようになります。電源から必要な場所に電気を直接運んでから使用することで，既存の技術よりも効率的で安価になる可能性があります。
これにより，使用するのが魅力的になり，エネルギー分配の経済性を変える力が得られます。371 これは特に，大量の石炭や石油を輸送する必要がなくなる海運に大きな影響を与えます。一部の推定では，「エネルギー関連の輸送は，2050 年までに石炭で 50%，石油で 25% 減少する可能性がある」と示唆されています。372

超高圧直流送電線

また，排出削減と低炭素経済への移行を促進します。 UHVDC は，明らかな超高電圧直流 (UHVDC) 送電線は，交流 (AC) よりも効率的で大量の電信頼性の欠如に対処することで，再生可能エネルギーの魅力を高めることが力を長距離伝送できる主要な送電技術になると期待されています。369 現できます。相互接続されたシステムを介して余剰または生産能力の高い地域

在，250 ギガワットを超えるインターコネクタと高電圧送電のリンクが世界から他の地域に電力を転送することにより，事業者は需要と供給を効率的に中で設置されており，中国，インド，米国，EU などの国々がこの技術に多調整できます。373 これは，流れの方向と大きさを分単位で変化させる革新的額の投資を行っており，2030 年に向けて指数関数的に増加すると予想さなセンサーと制御のおかげで可能になりました。さらに，エネルギー資源を輸れています。370

送する必要性が減少することで，輸送業界からの排出量が削減されます。

エネルギー伝送技術で利用可能なより高い電圧により，エネルギー資源自体の移動に依存するのではなく，長距離にわたってエネルギーを電気とし

368.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

369.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

370.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

371.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

372.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

373.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›

Environment

Finally, UHVDC can also connect more people to the energy supply
system. While the IEA reports that over 750 million people still do
not have access to electricity, access is increasing rapidly.374 New
transmission technologies could accelerate the spread of accessto electricity and even lead developing countries to leapfrog in theenergy sector375 – over the next 30 years, many countries in Africa
are expected to potentially skip development phases that older
economies have transitioned through, and move straight into digitaland sustainable infrastructure. As a region where a majority of the
population does not have access to electricity, this is expected todramatically change the power dynamics in the energy sector. It isalso an opportunity for African countries rich in natural resources tocombine the development goal of access to electricity with resilient,
low-carbon development.376

The future of distribution: From state-based centralized
systems to regional and local solutions

Regional solutions: sub-national interconnected energy networks
In the context established above, countries currently face a choice
between pursuing electrification and distribution through a national
agenda, or through an approach of energy interdependence atregional or local levels.377,378
Considering the commercial cost of investment in new transmission
lines and other energy technologies, as well as resource limitationsin any single country, cooperation and energy trade between
countries yields many benefits. It can minimize energy-production
costs and increase regional surplus through sharing infrastructure
and resources, and taking advantage of the different renewableenergy profiles of participating countries in order to adjust supply
and demand efficiently.379 “In sub-Saharan Africa, where the cost ofenergy supply is amongst the highest in the world, regional trade
may reduce costs by an average of 40%.” 380 Latin America can serveas an example, as countries have largely invested in regional energy
systems to reduce energy costs, improve reliability and diversify

374. Access to electricity (International Energy Agency, 2020)
375. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)376. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
377. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)378. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
379. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)
380. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹
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最後に，UHVDC は，より多くの人々をエネルギー供給システムに接続することもできます。 IEA の報告によると，7 億 5000 万人を超える人々が未来の分配： 国ベースの集中型システムから地域およびローカル
ソリューションまで

まだ電力を利用できていませんが，電力へのアクセスは急速に増加して地域的解決策：地方内で相互接続されたエネルギーネットワーク

います。374 新しい送電技術は，電力へのアクセスの拡大を加速し，発展

上記のコンテキストにおいて，各国は現在，国の意図を通じて電化と配電

途上国をエネルギー分野で飛躍させる可能性さえあります。今後 30 年間を追求するか，地域または地方レベルでエネルギー相互依存のアプロー

で，アフリカの多くの国は，古い経済が移行した開発段階を潜在的にスキチを通じて追求するかの選択に直面しています。377,378

ップし，デジタルで持続可能なインフラストラクチャーにまっすぐに進むと予想されます。375 人口の大部分が電気にアクセスできない地域として，これはエネルギー部門の電力動向を劇的に変えると予想されます。また，天然資源が豊富なアフリカ諸国にとって，電力へのアクセスという開発目標と，回復力のある低炭素開発を組み合わせる機会でもあります。376

新しい送電線やその他のエネルギー技術への投資の商業コスト，および単一の国における資源の制限を考慮すると，国間の協力とエネルギー貿
易は多くの利益をもたらします。エネルギー生産コストを最小限に抑え，インフラストラクチャーとリソースを共有し，参加国の異なる再生可能エネル
ギープロファイルを活用して需給を効率的に調整することで，エネルギー生
産コストを最小限に抑え，地域の余剰を増やすことができます。379 「エネルギー供給のコストが世界で最も高いサハラ以南のアフリカでは，地域貿易によってコストが平均 40% 削減される可能性があります。」380 ラテンア
メリカの各国は，エネルギーコストを削減し，信頼性を向上させ，地域のエ374.

Access to electricity (International Energy Agency, 2020)

375.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)376.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

377.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)378.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

379.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)380.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›

Environment

the region’s energy sources (see, for example, the Central American
Electrical Interconnection System (SIEPAC), and the AndeanElectrical Interconnection System).381
However, this regional approach is not without significant challenges,
including those related to cooperation across multiple jurisdictions
and countries, with varied infrastructures and legislation and thefact that existing electricity grid facilities in both developing anddeveloped countries will need to be updated to accommodate
renewable-energy sources, which are different from theinfrastructure used for fossil fuels.382

Local solutions: beyond the grid

An alternative to mega-grids is the development of local and smallscale distributed, energy systems that do not require power-gridconnection (microgrids). With such innovations, homes, cities, andlocal equipment could act as tools for electricity production, storage,
and distribution, thereby removing local communities’ reliance on
centralized and state-based grids.383 This can lead to more resilient
communities, with increased security of energy supplies for remotecommunities that have a reduced access to the grid, or in the eventof natural disasters. It could also provide opportunities to generate
income.384 However, with more actors involved, the complexity of theenergy system would increase, and with it, the risk of failures.385

381. Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)
382. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)383. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)384. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)385. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
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ネルギー源を多様化するために，地域のエネルギーシステムに大規模な投ローカル ソリューション： グリッド（電力網）を超えて資を行ってきたので，例として役立つ可能性があります（たとえば，中央アメ

メガグリッドに代わるものは，電力網接続を必要としないローカルおよび小リカ電気相互接続システム（SIEPAC），およびアンデス電気相互接続シス

規模の分散型エネルギーシステム (マイクログリッド) の開発です。このようテムを参照）。381

な革新により，住宅，都市，および地域の機器は，電力の生産，貯蔵，および配電のツールとして機能する可能性があり，それによって地域社会の中

ただし，この地域的なアプローチには，さまざまなインフラストラクチャーと法央集権化された国ベースの電力網への依存から解放されます。383 これに律を伴う複数の管轄区域と国にわたる協力に関連するもの，発展途上国とより，電力網へのアクセスが制限されている遠隔地のコミュニティや自然災

先進国の両方の既存の電力網施設を再生可能エネルギーに対応するため害が発生した場合のエネルギー供給のセキュリティが強化され，より回復に，化石燃料で使用されるインフラストラクチャーとは異なる施設に更新す力のあるコミュニティにつながる可能性があります。また，収入を生み出する必要があるという事実など，重大な課題がないわけではありません。382

機会を提供することもできます。384 しかし，より多くの関係者が関与すると，エネルギー システムの複雑さが増し，それに伴って失敗のリスクも高まりま
す。385

381.

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030. Future scenarios (Inter-American Development Bank, 2016)

382.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

383.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

384.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

385.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Environment

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories

݁ ISO/TC 301, Energy management and energy savings• ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems – Requirements with guidance for use• ISO - Affordable and Clean Energy• ISO - Zero-energy buildings• ISO - On the road to net zero

݁ ISO/TC 197, Hydrogen technologies• ISO 17268:2020, Gaseous hydrogen land vehicle refuelling connection devices• ISO - Helping the world reach net-zero emissions• ISO 22734:2019, Hydrogen generators using water electrolysis – Industrial,commercial, and residential applications• ISO - The rise of energy efficiency

݁ ISO/TC 205, Building environment design• ISO 13153:2012, Framework of the design process for energy-saving single-family
residential and small commercial buildings• ISO/TR 16822:2016, Building environment design – List of test procedures forheating, ventilating, air-conditioning and domestic hot water equipment related toenergy efficiency‹
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Where to from here?

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 301, Energy management and energy savings• ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems – Requirements with guidance for use݁◌ ISO/TC 197, Hydrogen technologies• ISO 17268:2020, Gaseous hydrogen land vehicle refuelling connection devices• ISO 22734:2019, Hydrogen generators using water electrolysis – Industrial,commercial, and residential applications

݁◌ ISO/TC 205, Building environment design• ISO 13153:2012, Framework of the design process for energy-saving single-family
residential and small commercial buildings• ISO/TR 16822:2016, Building environment design – List of test procedures forheating, ventilating, air-conditioning and domestic hot water equipment related toenergy efficiency‹›

Environment• ISO - Affordable and Clean Energy• ISO - Zero-energy buildings• ISO - On the road to net zero• ISO - Helping the world reach net-zero emissions• ISO - The rise of energy efficiency

Environmental degradation
Natural resources scarcity | Threatened ecosystems
The natural world has been irreversibly changed by human actions and this has led to longterm trends towards increasing environmental degradation and scarcity of natural resources.
Both of these trends are closely interlinked and will pose significant challenges over the next
few decades, requiring large-scale, international action to avoid the worst-case scenario.
Human activities have resulted in air pollution, habitat destruction, soil erosion, desertification,
ocean acidification and many other changes that are causing significant stress to ecosystems.
With a growing global population, demand for fresh water and arable land for agriculture are
expected to increase in the future. The development of new technologies (such as smart
farming) will be essential to overcome some of these challenges. However, many suchtechnologies, including clean energy technologies, require critical minerals that are also in
short supply. Substantial efforts in terms of both mitigation (reduction of carbon emissions)and adaptation (changing behaviours, consumption patterns, resource management and more)
will be required to maintain a level of ecosystem services needed for human wellbeing.

Natural resources scarcity

Related trends: Energy
sources, Energy storage
and distribution,
Increased migration,
Rise of the middle class,
Sustainable production,
Threatened ecosystems

As the effects of climate change continue to impact the globe, precious, natural resources
like fresh water, arable land and minerals are expected to become increasingly scarce, withsignificant implications for agriculture and food security, as well as the production of many
new innovative technologies. According to the US National Intelligence Council, “nearly all of
the Earth’s systems are undergoing natural and human-induced stresses outpacing national
and international environmental protection efforts.”386 The World Economic Forum identifies
386. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

環境悪化
天然資源の不足 | 脅かされている生態系
自然界は人間の行動によって不可逆的に変化しており，これが環境の悪化と天然資源の不足に向かう長期的なトレンドにつながっています。これらのトレンドは両方とも密接に関連しており，最悪のシナ
リオを回避するために大規模な国際的なアクションが必要になり，今後数十年にわたって重大な課題をもたらすでしょう。
人間の活動は，大気汚染，生息地の破壊，土壌侵食，砂漠化，海洋酸性化，および生態系に重大なストレスを引き起こしている他の多くの変化をもたらしました。世界人口の増加に伴い，農業用の淡水と耕地の需要は将来的に増加すると予想されます。これらの課題のいくつかを克服するには，新しい技術 (スマート ファーミングなど) の開発が不可欠です。しかし，クリーンエネルギー技術を含む多くのそのような技術は，不足している重要鉱物を必要とします。人間の幸福に必要な生態系サービスのレベルを維持するには，緩和 (炭素排出量の削減) と適応 (行動，消費パターン，資源管理などの変更)の両方に関する実質的な取り組みが必要になります。

天然資源の不足
気候変動の影響が地球に影響を与え続けているため，真水，耕地，鉱物などの貴重な天然資源がますます不足することが予想され，農業や食料安全保障，そして多くの新しい革新的技術の製作に大きな影響を与えています。米国国家情報評議会によると，「地球のシステムのほぼすべてが，国内および国際的な環境保護の取り組みを上回る自然および人為的なストレスを受けています。」386 世界経
386.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹›

Environment

関連するトレンド： エネル
ギー源, エネルギーの貯蔵と分配, 移民の増加, 中
産階級の台頭, 持続可能な生産, 脅かされている生態系

human over-exploitation and/or mismanagement as key drivers of
the scarcity of natural resources.387 Resource scarcity, whether ofwater, land or minerals, may also be a driver of conflict, particularly
where economic and political issues create barriers to access tonatural resources.388,389

Water, land, and consequences for food production

Water is already scarce and is likely to become even more scarcein future. Only 3% of the world’s water is freshwater, and much ofthis is is not readily accessible due to factors that include remotelocation, political boundaries, economics, and purity. The UN
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that 1.8 billion
people worldwide will face water scarcity by 2025 and 5.2 billion
are expected to face water stress. By 2050, the FAO estimates that
only 60% of the water needed will be available.390 Although climatechange may promote glacier melting that could lead to increased
flows of water, higher temperatures are also expected to increasewater loss due to evaporation.391 An increasing demand for water
will make the extraction and production (e.g. through desalination)of fresh water more energy intensive, and is likely to drive up costs
for access to water.392 Industrial water pollution, inadequate water
management, and non-compliance with water sharing agreements
and treaty provisions may lead to tensions over access towater sources.393
The same forces that are expected to impact water scarcity (climatechange, population growth, ‘Urbanization’, economic development,
and poor management) will also impact the availability of arable land
for farming. This is a serious challenge when projections estimatethat average levels of food production will have to increase byaround 50% by 2050 (from a 2012 baseline) to meet the needs ofthe world’s population.394 Indeed, it is impossible to separate out
the issues of water and land scarcity as each affects the otherin a significant way. For example, around 70% of global water
consumption goes to agriculture, agriculture will be responsible for a387. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)
388. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)389. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)390. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)
391.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)392. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)393. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)394. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

済フォーラムは，天然資源の不足の主な原因として，人間の過剰搾取お水の需要が高まると，真水の抽出と生産（淡水化などによる）がよりエ

よび/または管理の誤りを特定しています。387 水，土地，鉱物などの資源

ネルギー集約的になり，水へのアクセスコストが上昇する可能性があり不足も，特に経済的および政治的問題が天然資源へのアクセスを妨げるます。392 工業用水の汚染，不十分な水管理，および水共有協定と条場合に，紛争の原因となる可能性があります。388,389

約条項の不遵守は，水源へのアクセスをめぐる緊張につながる可能性があります。393

水，土地，および食料生産への影響

水不足に影響を与えると予想されるのと同じ要因 (気候変動，人口増

水はすでに不足しており，将来さらに不足する可能性があります。世界

加，「都市化」，経済発展，および貧弱な管理) は，農業用の耕地の利用の水のわずか 3% が淡水であり，その多くは遠隔地，政治的境界，経可能性にも影響を与えます。世界人口のニーズを満たすには，2050 年

済，純度などの要因により，容易にはアクセスできません。国連食糧農業機関 (FAO) は，2025 年までに世界中で 18 億人が水不足に直面し，
52 億人が水不足に直面すると推定しています。 FAO は，2050 年までに，必要な水の 60% しか利用できないと推定しています。390 気候変動
は氷河の融解を促進し，水の流れの増加につながる可能性があります
が，気温の上昇も蒸発による水の損失を増加させると予想されます。391

387.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

388.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

389.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)390.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

391.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

392.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

393.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

394.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Environment

までに食料生産の平均レベルを (2012 年を基準として) 約 50% 増加させる必要があると推定されていて，これは深刻な課題です。394 実際，水不足と土地不足の問題は，それぞれが互いに大きな影響を与えるため，切り離すことは不可能です。たとえば，世界の水消費量の約 70% は農業に費やされており，農業は将来的に増加する水需要の大部分を占め

large part of the increased demand for water in future395, and current
intensive farming techniques are linked to water pollution, along with
air pollution, soil degradation and pest resistance.396 Water scarcity
and other consequences of climate change, such as volatile weather
events and sea-level rise, will, on the one hand, reduce the amountof land available for developing new agricultural areas and, on theother hand, lead to reduced agricultural production. The resulting
food insecurity is predicted to have a disproportionate effecton developing countries, with some predicting that “Africa could
face a near double-digit reduction in crop yields and production
volumes over the next decade, as well as rising food prices bysimilar margins.”397
Technology will need to play a major role in overcoming natural
resource scarcity and improving agricultural productivity.398 ‘Smartfarming’ and techniques such as hydroponics and vertical farming
will be key. Smart farming involves the use of digital technologies –e.g. unmanned machinery, robots, sensors, drones, big data, andadvanced analytics – to be able to analyse the individual needs ofspecific fields, crops, or animals.399 This kind of precision agriculture

is more environmentally benign, minimizes water and electricity use,
while maximizing the productivity of the land. Hydroponics (growing
plants in mineral solutions instead of soil) and vertical farming(growing crops in vertically stacked layers) both reduce the need forland to grow certain crops and make it more practical to farm them inurban environments.400

Critical minerals and consequences for emerging
technologies and the energy transition

Scarcity issues also apply to lesser-known natural resources likecritical minerals – rare metals such as lithium, tellurium and rareearth metals that are used for batteries, solar panels, and various
electronic devices. Demand for these product types will only
increase in the coming decades as more people join the middle
class and purchase consumer electronics such as smartphones.
In addition, as the global community steps up efforts to cut GHG
emissions, and transition to cleaner sources of energy such as
electric vehicles (which require a lot of lithium) and solar power,
this will increase the demand for these rare metals. As this demand
grows, pressure on these limited resources will be significant.

395. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
396. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)397. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
398. Global strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)399. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (EU Commission, 2019)400. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

環境にやさしく，水と電気の使用を最小限に抑えながら，土地の生産性ることになるでしょう。395 また，現在の集中的な農業技術は，大気汚染，土壌劣化，害虫耐性とともに，水質汚染に関連しています。396 水不足や，不安定な気象現象や海面上昇などの気候変動の影響は，一方を最大化します。水耕栽培 (土壌の代わりにミネラル溶液で植物を育てる) と垂直農業 (垂直に積み重ねられた層で作物を育てる) はどちら
も，特定の作物を栽培するための土地の必要性を減らし，都市環境ででは新しい農業地域の開発に利用できる土地の量を減らし，他方では農業生産の減少につながります。結果として生じる食糧不安は，発展途

それらを栽培することをより実用的にします。400

上国に不釣り合いな影響を与えると予測されており，「アフリカでは，今後10年間で作物収量と生産量が2桁近く減少し，同様のマージンで食重要鉱物，および新興技術とエネルギー移行への影響

糧価格が上昇する可能性があります。」397

希少性の問題は，電池，ソーラー パネル，さまざまな電子機器に使用されるリチウム，テルル，希土類金属などの重要鉱物など，あまり知られテクノロジーは，天然資源の不足を克服し，農業生産性を向上させる上で重要な役割を果たす必要があります。398 「スマートファーミング」と，水ていない天然資源にも当てはまります。これらの製品タイプの需要は，より多くの人々が中産階級に加わり，スマートフォンなどの家電製品を購

耕栽培や垂直農業などのテクノロジーが鍵となります。スマートファーミン

入するにつれて，今後数十年で増加するだけです。さらに，国際社会がグには，無人機械，ロボット，センサー，ドローン，ビッグデータ，および高

GHG 排出量を削減し，電気自動車 (大量のリチウムを必要とする) や太

度な分析などのデジタル技術の使用が含まれ，特定の畑，作物，または動物の個々のニーズを分析できるようにします。399 この種の精密農業は陽光発電などのよりクリーンなエネルギー源に移行するための取り組みを強化するにつれて，これらのレアメタルの需要が増加します。この需要が高まるにつれて，これらの限られた資源への圧力は大きくなります。

395.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

396.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)397.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

398.

Global strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

399.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (EU Commission, 2019)400.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

Environment

With the bulk of known critical mineral deposits in a small number of countries, political andsupply chain issues could cause significant challenges in the future.401
Scarcity of water, land or minerals will provide both challenges and opportunities forbusinesses, who may have less readily available resources for production, but who may see
potential market opportunities develop for sustainable and eco-friendly production.402

Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - Farming fit, farming smart

݁ ISO/TC 207, Environmental management• ISO - Calculating the value of theenvironment with new ISO standard• ISO 14001:2015, Environmental management systems – Requirements with guidance for use• ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management – Water footprint – Principles, requirements and guidelines• ISO - A standard for water reusebrings hope for water scarcity

݁ ISO/TC 23, Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry (and its subcommittees)• ISO - Managing a precious resource• ISO 17989-1:2015, Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry – Sustainability –Part 1: Principles• ISO - Precision farming takes off

݁ ISO/TC 224, Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services• ISO - Putting waste to good use• ISO 46001:2019, Water efficiency management systems – Requirements with guidance for use

݁ ISO/TC 282, Water reuse• ISO 22519:2019, Purified water and water for injection pretreatment and production systems

݁ ISO/TC 287, Sustainable processes for wood and wood-based products• ISO 38200:2018, Chain of custody of wood and wood-based products

401.

Critical minerals scarcity could threaten renewable energy future (Stanford University, 2018)402. Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

少数の国に既知の重要鉱物の鉱床の大部分があるため，政治的およびサプライチェーンの問題が将来的に重大な課題を引き起こす可能性があります。401
水，土地，または鉱物の不足は，生産のための資源を容易に利用できない可能性がありますが，持続可能で環境に優しい生産のために潜在的な市場機会が発展する可能性がある企業にとっては，課題と機会の両方が提供されます。402

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 207, Environmental management• ISO 14001:2015, Environmental management systems – Requirements with guidance for use• ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management – Water footprint – Principles, requirements and guidelines݁◌ ISO/TC 23, Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry (and its subcommittees)• ISO 17989-1:2015, Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry – Sustainability –Part 1: Principles݁◌ ISO/TC 224, Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services• ISO 46001:2019, Water efficiency management systems – Requirements with guidance for use݁◌ ISO/TC 282, Water reuse• ISO 22519:2019, Purified water and water for injection pretreatment and production systems݁◌ ISO/TC 287, Sustainable processes for wood and wood-based products• ISO 38200:2018, Chain of custody of wood and wood-based products

401.

Critical minerals scarcity could threaten renewable energy future (Stanford University, 2018)

402.

Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)‹›

Environment• ISO - Farming fit, farming smart• ISO - Calculating the value of theenvironment with new ISO standard• ISO - A standard for waterreuse brings hope for water
scarcity• ISO - Managing a precious resource• ISO - Precision farming takes off• ISO - Putting waste to good use݁ ISO/TC 298, Rare earth• ISO 22450:2020, Recycling of rare earth elements – Requirements for providing information on
industrial waste and end-of-life products• ISO/TS 22451:2021, Recycling of rare earth elements – Methods for the measurement of rare earth
elements in industrial waste and end-of-life products• ISO 22453:2021, Exchange of information on rare earth elements in industrial wastes and end-of-life
cycled products• ISO 23664:2021, Traceability of rare earths in the supply chain from mine to separated products

݁ ISO/TC 323, Circular economy• ISO/AWI 59040, Circular Economy – Product Circularity Data Sheet݁ ISO/TC 331, Biodiversity• ISO/AWI TS 13208-1, Biodiversity – Vocabulary – Part 1: General terms

݁ ISO/TC 333, Lithium• ISO/AWI 9287, Lithium sustainability across the value chain: concentration, extraction, separation,
conversion, recycling, and reuse݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/SAG_CRMI, ISO Strategic Advisory Group on Critical minerals• ISO/TMBG/SAG SF, Smart Farming‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

݁◌ ISO/TC 298, Rare earth• ISO 22450:2020, Recycling of rare earth elements – Requirements for providing information on
industrial waste and end-of-life products• ISO/TS 22451:2021, Recycling of rare earth elements – Methods for the measurement of rare earth
elements in industrial waste and end-of-life products• ISO 22453:2021, Exchange of information on rare earth elements in industrial wastes and end-of-life
cycled products• ISO 23664:2021, Traceability of rare earths in the supply chain from mine to separated products݁◌ ISO/TC 323, Circular economy• ISO/AWI 59040, Circular Economy – Product Circularity Data Sheet݁◌ ISO/TC 331, Biodiversity• ISO/AWI TS 13208-1, Biodiversity – Vocabulary – Part 1: General terms

݁◌ ISO/TC 333, Lithium• ISO/AWI 9287, Lithium sustainability across the value chain: concentration, extraction, separation,
conversion, recycling, and reuse݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/SAG_CRMI, ISO Strategic Advisory Group on Critical minerals• ISO/TMBG/SAG SF, Smart Farming‹›

Environment

Threatened ecosystems

Related trends: Natural
resource scarcity,
Increased migration,
Rise of the middle
class, Sustainableproduction, Synthetic
biology, Urbanization

Ecosystems worldwide are at increasing risk of long-term changes and damage. Changes toplant life-cycles and animal behaviour are observed in both land and marine ecosystems.403
Threats from pollution, habitat destruction, deforestation, over-exploitation, changes inbiodiversity, seabed mining and ocean acidification are all interfering with the naturalfunctioning of the earth’s ecosystems404,405 alongside the ongoing threat of global warming.406
Reducing emissions of CO2 and other GHGs is a critical response to these threats,
and, if ambitious emission-reduction targets are achieved, offers some hope for theworld’s ecosystems.407
Air pollution continues to increase, especially in rapidly growing cities, and will pose significant
health risks into the future.408 By 2035, air pollution may be the top cause of environmentallyrelated deaths worldwide.409 Air quality is predicted to become “the most significant indicatorwith regards to quality of life, happiness and other indices.” 410 As growing numbers of people
live in urban areas, air pollution can be expected to increase and will especially impact on

403. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)404. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)405. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)406. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)407. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)408. Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)409. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)
410.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

脅かされている生態系
世界中の生態系は，長期的な変化と損傷のリスクが高まっています。植物のライフ サイクルと動物の行動の変化は，陸上と海洋の両方の生態系で観察されます。403 汚染，生息地の破壊，森林伐採，過剰開発，生物多様性の変化，海底の採掘，海洋の酸性化による脅威はすべて，進行中の地球温暖化の脅威とともに，地球の生態系の自然な機能404,405 を妨げています。406
CO2 やその他の GHG の排出量を削減することは，これらの脅威に対する重要な対応であり，野心的な排出削減目標が達成されれば，世界の生態系に希望がもたらされます。407
大気汚染は，特に急速に成長している都市で増加し続けており，将来にわたって重大な健康上のリス
クをもたらします。408 2035 年までに，大気汚染は世界の環境関連死の最大の原因になる可能性があります。409 空気の質は，「生活の質，幸福度，その他の指標に関して最も重要な指標」になると予測されています。都市部に住む人々の増加に伴い，大気汚染が増加することが予想され，特に都市人

403.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)404.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)

405.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

406.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

407.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

408.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)

409.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

410.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)‹›

Environment

関連するトレンド：天然資源の不足, 移民の増加, 中産階級の台頭, 持続可能な生産, 合成
生物学, 都市化

urban populations.411 Already, more than 80% of people living in cities are exposed to air
pollution that exceeds safe limits.412
Signs of hope in relation to air pollution may appear in the form of increased public awareness,cleaner transport options, retrofitted buildings, and improved urban design.413
Soil erosion and desertification will increasingly threaten agricultural and habitable land414,
particularly where deforestation and unsustainable farming practices continue.
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - Climate Action

݁ ISO/TC 207, Environmental management• ISO - Ones to watch• ISO 14055-1:2017, Environmental management – Guidelines for establishing good practices forcombatting land degradation and desertification – Part 1: Good practices framework• ISO - International Day of Forests• ISO TR 14055-2:2022, Environmental management – Guidelines for establishing good practices forcombatting land degradation and desertification – Part 2: Regional case studies• ISO - Biodiversity high on standards agenda• ISO - Putting sustainability at the heart of thestandards agenda

݁ ISO/TC 82/SC 7, Mine closure and reclamation management• ISO - Food, feed, fibre• ISO 21795-1:2021, Mine closure and reclamation planning – Part 1: Requirements• ISO - Breathe easy with ISO standards on World
Environment Day• ISO 21795-2:2021, Mine closure and reclamation planning – Part 2: Guidance• ISO - New ISO standard to combat land degradation

411.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)412. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)
413.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

414.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

口に影響を与える可能性があります。411 すでに，都市に住む人々の 80% 以上が，安全限界を超える大気汚染にさらされています。412
大気汚染に関する希望の兆しは，一般市民の意識の高まり，よりクリーンな交通手段，建物の改修，都市設計の改善という形で現れるかもしれません。413
土壌侵食と砂漠化は，特に森林伐採と持続不可能な農業慣行が続く場合，農地と居住可能な土
地をますます脅かします。414
関連するISOニュースストーリー

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 207, Environmental management• ISO - Climate Action• ISO 14055-1:2017, Environmental management – Guidelines for establishing good practices forcombatting land degradation and desertification – Part 1: Good practices framework• ISO TR 14055-2:2022, Environmental management – Guidelines for establishing good practices forcombatting land degradation and desertification – Part 2: Regional case studies݁◌ ISO/TC 82/SC 7, Mine closure and reclamation management• ISO 21795-1:2021, Mine closure and reclamation planning – Part 1: Requirements• ISO 21795-2:2021, Mine closure and reclamation planning – Part 2: Guidance

411.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

412.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

413.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

414.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹›

Environment• ISO - Ones to watch• ISO - International Day of Forests• ISO - Biodiversity high on standards agenda• ISO - Putting sustainability at the heart of thestandards agenda• ISO - Food, feed, fibre• ISO - Breathe easy with ISO standards on
World Environment Day• ISO - New ISO standard to combat land degradation

݁ ISO/TC 190, Soil quality• ISO 15175:2018, Soil quality – characterization of contaminated soil related to
groundwater protection• ISO 19204:2017, Soil quality – Procedure for site-specific ecological risk assessment ofsoil contamination

݁ ISO/TC 234, Fisheries and aquaculture• ISO/PRF 5020, Waste reduction and treatment on fishing vessels• ISO 22948:2020, Carbon footprint for seafood – Product category rules (CFP–PCR) for finfish

݁ ISO/TC 265, Carbon dioxide capture, transportation, and geological storage• ISO 27919-1:2018, Carbon dioxide capture – Part 1: Performance evaluation methods for postcombustion CO2 capture integrated with a power plant• ISO 27919-2:2021, Carbon dioxide capture – Part 2: Evaluation procedure to assure and maintainstable performance of post-combustion CO2 capture plant integrated with a power plant݁ ISO/TR 27923:2022, Carbon dioxide capture, transportation and geological storage – Injection
operations, infrastructure and monitoring݁ ISO/TC 287, Sustainable processes for wood and wood-based products• ISO 38200:2018, Chain of custody of wood and wood-based products

݁ ISO/TC 331, Biodiversity• ISO/AWI TS 13208-1, Biodiversity – Vocabulary – Part 1: General terms

݁ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/CCCC, Climate Change Coordination Committee• ISO Guide 82:2019, Guidelines for addressing sustainability in standards• ISO Guide 84:2020, Guidelines for addressing climate change in standards‹
Foreword

Society

Technology›

Environment
Environment

EconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

݁◌ ISO/TC 190, Soil quality• ISO 15175:2018, Soil quality – characterization of contaminated soil related to
groundwater protection• ISO 19204:2017, Soil quality – Procedure for site-specific ecological risk assessment ofsoil contamination

݁◌ ISO/TC 234, Fisheries and aquaculture• ISO/PRF 5020, Waste reduction and treatment on fishing vessels• ISO 22948:2020, Carbon footprint for seafood – Product category rules (CFP–PCR) for finfish

݁◌ ISO/TC 265, Carbon dioxide capture, transportation, and geological storage• ISO 27919-1:2018, Carbon dioxide capture – Part 1: Performance evaluation methods for postcombustion CO2 capture integrated with a power plant• ISO 27919-2:2021, Carbon dioxide capture – Part 2: Evaluation procedure to assure and maintainstable performance of post-combustion CO2 capture plant integrated with a power plant݁◌ ISO/TR 27923:2022, Carbon dioxide capture, transportation and geological storage – Injection
operations, infrastructure and monitoring݁◌ ISO/TC 287, Sustainable processes for wood and wood-based products• ISO 38200:2018, Chain of custody of wood and wood-based products݁◌ ISO/TC 331, Biodiversity• ISO/AWI TS 13208-1, Biodiversity – Vocabulary – Part 1: General terms

݁◌ ISO/TMBG, Technical Management Board - groups• ISO/TMBG/CCCC, Climate Change Coordination Committee• ISO Guide 82:2019, Guidelines for addressing sustainability in standards• ISO Guide 84:2020, Guidelines for addressing climate change in standards‹›

Environment

Economy

݁

Trade

経済

݁
◌

貿易

TradeChanging trade patterns | New business models
Trade has been increasingly globalized in recent decades, but this trend is now slowing,
and the future may see an increasing fragmentation and a shift towards regionalizationand localization. Drivers of these changing trade patterns will include shifting consumption
patterns (with, for example, goods produced in China increasingly being consumed inSoutheast Asia), changes in the political environment (see ‘Power transition’), changing
consumer preferences (see ‘Consumption’), and the growth of new business models that are
made possible by new technologies (such as ‘Blockchain’ and ‘Additive manufacturing’).

Changing trade patterns
Regionalization / localization

Although digital globalization looks set to continue apace, trade globalization has beenslowing down over the past 10 to 15 years as the number of bilateral and regional trade
agreements proliferates, and countries increase their use of restrictive, trade policy
measures.415,416

Related trends: 5G, Additive
manufacturing, Customized
products, Data privacy, Diversifying
inequalities, Rise of the middle
class, Services moving online,
Spread of the Internet, Threatened
ecosystems, Urbanization

Regional trade agreements may increase the intensity of trade between their signatory
countries417 while regional connectivity initiatives (for example, the Master Plan on The
Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN] connectivity) will make intra-regional trade
more efficient.418 This may have particular impacts for developing economies – the African
415.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

416.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

417.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

418.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹ ›Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyEconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

貿易
貿易形態の変化 | 新しいビジネスモデル
ここ数十年で貿易はますますグローバル化されてきましたが，このトレンドは現在鈍化しており，将来的には断片化が進み，地域化と局在化への移行が進む可能性があります。こうした貿易形態の変化の原動力には，消費パターンの変化 (たとえば，中国で生産された商品が東南アジアでますます消費されるなど)，政治環境の変化 (「権力の移行」を参照)，消費者の嗜好の変化 (「消費」を参照)，および新しいテクノロジー（「ブロックチェーン」や「アディティブ マニュファクチャリング」など）によって可能になる新しいビジネス モデルの成長が含まれます。

貿易形態の変化
地域化 / 局在化
デジタルのグローバル化は急速に進むように見えますが，過去 10 年から 15 年間，二国間および地域の貿易協定の数が急増し，各国が制限的な貿易政策手段の使用を増やしているた
め，貿易のグローバル化は減速しています。415,416
地域貿易協定は，署名国間の貿易の強度を高める可能性がありますが，417 地域の接続性イ
ニシアチブ (たとえば，東南アジア諸国連合 [ASEAN] 接続性に関するマスター プラン) は，地域内貿易をより効率的にします。418 これは発展途上国に特に影響を与える可能性があります。たとえば，アフリカ大陸自由貿易協定は12億人の市場を統合し，大陸内貿易を大幅に増加
415.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

416.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

417.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

418.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

関連するトレンド：5G, アディティブ マ
ニュファクチャリング, カスタマイズされた製品, データ保護, 不平等の多様化, 中産階級の台頭, サービスのオンライン化, インターネットの普及,脅かされている生態系, 都市化

Continental Free Trade Agreement, for example, integrates a market
of 1.2 billion people and may significantly stimulate the growth ofAfrican economies by considerably increasing intra-continental
trade.419 The potential downside is that regionalized trading could
lead to disconnected markets and protectionism, particularly if there
are conflicting technology standards between regions.420
Alongside this shift from international to intra-regional trade, there isalso a shift from countries to cities, as the drivers of wealth creationand innovation (localization). Cities will increasingly “shape thedynamics of international trade”421 over the next 30 years as more
people move to urban areas because of better opportunities forwork and education. Cities may even strengthen their position in the
global economy to the extent that they “could replace countries as
the most important economic entities” (see ‘Smart cities’).422

419.

Increasing South-South trade

Trade between emerging economies (known as South-South
trade) has increased significantly over the last 20 years and thistrend is predicted to continue alongside economic growth in thosecountries. South-South Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) alreadymake up more than half the total number of RTAs in the world,with the majority in Asia.423 Further South-South trade growth
will be driven by an increase in demand for consumer goods
from a growing middle class (often goods that are produced inemerging economies), alongside better communications and easiercustoms arrangements.424

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

420. Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)421. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)422. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)423. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)424. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹ ›Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyEconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

させることでアフリカ経済の成長を著しく刺激する可能性があります。419 潜

南南貿易の増加

在的なマイナス面は，地域化された貿易が分断された市場や保護主義に

新興経済国間の貿易 (南南貿易として知られる) は過去 20 年間で大幅つながる可能性があることです。特に，地域間で技術規格が競合しているに増加しており，この傾向はこれらの国の経済成長とともに続くと予測さ場合はそうです。420

れています。 南南地域貿易協定 (RTA) は，すでに世界の RTA の総数

この国際貿易から域内貿易へのシフトに加えて，富の創造とイノベーションの原動力として，国から都市へのシフトもあります（局在化）。より多くの人々が仕事や教育の機会を求めて都市部に移動するにつれて，都市は今後 30 年間にますます「国際貿易のダイナミクスを形作る」421 ようになるでの半分以上を占めており，その大部分はアジアにあります。423 南南貿易のさらなる成長は，コミュニケーションの改善と通関手続きの簡素化に加えて，成長する中産階級 (多くの場合，新興経済国で生産された商品) からの消費財に対する需要の増加によって促進されます。424

しょう。都市は，「最も重要な経済主体として国に取って代わることができる」程度まで，世界経済におけるその地位を強化する可能性さえあります（「スマートシティ」を参照）。422

419.

Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)

420.

Global risks 2035 update. Decline or new renaissance? (Atlantic Council, 2019)

421.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

422.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

423.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

424.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

What and how we trade

The composition of trade flows and the means by which they aretransported are evolving. In terms of what we trade, for several
decades, international trade in services has grown at a much
faster pace than trade in goods, and, despite being hit hard by the
COVID-19 pandemic, global trade in a wide range of services (e.g.
financial, communications, tourism) is expected to increase overthe next 20 years.425 Trade in digital services (i.e. services provided
over digital networks, such as computer network maintenance,
entertainment, broadcasting, or financial management) is one areathat has seen a huge growth recently (see ‘Services moving online’),and this has led to a massive increase in the amount of cross-borderdata flows.426 Such cross-border data flows are essential for digital
services trade but must also be carefully managed due to privacy
concerns. Countries must ensure they place adequate restrictions
on cross-border data flows to protect personal data and national
security, without these restrictions being so severe that theynegatively affect the level of digital services trade.427 The importanceof trade in digital services means that all countries will have to makebig investments in digital capacity and data infrastructure to keep
up with this evolution of the global trading system.428 Countries lessable to do so will be at a huge disadvantage in terms of economic
and social development. The digital divide (related to levels ofconnectivity and access to the Internet) and data-related dive(related to the ability to capture, analyze and transform data into
digital intelligence) between developed and developing countries istherefore a major challenge to overcome.429
In terms of how we trade, climate change, new technologies andshifting customer preferences are all contributing to reshaping
the trade and logistics sectors. The potentially disruptive effects
of climate change are causing companies to modify the way they
operate to increase the resilience and reliability of their supply
chains.430 In some cases, this means the shortening of supply
chains, which is made possible by new digital technologies such as
automation and ‘5G’ (note: this contributes to the trend away fromtrade globalization).431 Growth in the 3D-printing market (see ‘Additive
manufacturing’) also facilitates this, by allowing for what’s called‘re-shoring’ or ‘near-shoring’ of production – where manufacturing425. Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)
426. Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2021)
427. World Development Report 2021. Data for Better Lives (World Bank, 2021)
428. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)429. Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2021)
430. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)
431.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹ ›Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyEconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

何をどのように取引するか

データ インフラストラクチャーに多額の投資を行い，このグローバルな貿

貿易の流れの構成とその輸送手段は進化しています。私たちが取引する

易システムの進化に追いつく必要があることを意味します。428 それができものに関しては，数十年にわたり，サービスの国際貿易は商品の貿易よ

ない国は，経済的および社会的発展の点で非常に不利になります。したりもはるかに速いペースで成長しており，COVID-19 パンデミックによってがって，先進国と発展途上国の間のデジタル格差 (インターネットへの接大きな打撃を受けたにもかかわらず，幅広いサービスの国際貿易 (例：金続とアクセスのレベルに関連する) とデータ関連の急落 (データを取得，分融，通信，観光) は，今後 20 年間で増加すると予想されます。425 デジタ

析し，デジタル インテリジェンスに変換する能力に関連する) は，克服すル サービス (つまり，コンピューター ネットワークのメンテナンス，エンターべき大きな課題です。429

テイメント，放送，または財務管理など，デジタル ネットワークを介して提供されるサービス) の取引は，最近大きな成長を遂げている分野の 1 つです (「サービスのオンライン化」を参照)。国境を越えたデータフローの量が大幅に増加しています。426 このような国境を越えたデータ フローは，
デジタル サービスの取引に不可欠ですが，プライバシー上の懸念から慎重に管理する必要もあります。各国は，個人データと国家安全保障を保護するために，国境を越えたデータの流れに適切な制限を設けることを確実にする必要がありますが，これらの制限がデジタル サービス貿易のレベルに悪影響を与えるほど厳しくならないようにする必要があります。
427 デジタル サービスの貿易の重要性は，すべての国がデジタル容量と取引方法に関しては，気候変動，新技術，顧客の嗜好の変化がすべて，貿易および物流部門の再構築に貢献しています。気候変動の潜在的に破壊的な影響により，企業はサプライ チェーンの回復力と信頼性を高めるために業務の方法を変更する必要に迫られています。430 場合によっては，これは自動化や「5G」などの新しいデジタル技術によって可能になるサプライ チェーンの短縮を意味します (注記：これは，貿易のグローバ
ル化から遠ざかるトレンドに寄与しています)。431 3D プリンティング市場(「アディティブ マニュファクチャリング」を参照) の成長も，生産の「リショアリング」または「ニアショアリング」と呼ばれるものを可能にすることで，これを促進します。この場合，製造はオンデマンドで実行でき，エンドユ

425.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

426.

Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2021)

427.

World Development Report 2021. Data for Better Lives (World Bank, 2021)

428.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)429.

Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade and Development, 2021)

430.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

431.

Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

can be performed on demand and much closer to the end user.432 While this may decrease
the need for long-distance transport, it will not eliminate it and thus the long-distancetransport sector is also evolving in the face of new technologies and the imperative to reducecarbon emissions. For example, driverless freight using autonomous trucks may become areality in the next 10 to 15 years, improving delivery times, and reducing traffic congestion,
operating costs and accidents.433 Meanwhile, in shipping, many companies are exploring lowcarbon fuels, renewable energy, and new ship designs (e.g. hulls and propellors) to increase
efficiency and reduce carbon footprints.434 These kinds of changes are also propelled by anincreasing customer demand for more sustainable production and more customized products(see ‘Consumption’).
Relevant ISO technical committee and standards

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - Building a new consensus on trade݁ ISO/PC 317, Privacy by design• ISO/AWI TR 31700-2, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer
goods and services – Part 2: Use cases

432. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)433. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)434. Five future trends in the shipping industry (MARINEi, 2021)‹ ›Foreword

Society

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Environment

EconomyEconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

ーザーにずっと近づくことができます。432 これにより，長距離輸送の必要性が減少する可能性がありますが，それをなくすことはできません。したがって，長距離輸送部門も，新しい技術と二酸化炭素排出量を削減する必要性に直面して進化しています。たとえば，無人運転トラックを使用した無人貨物輸送は，
今後 10 年から 15 年で実現する可能性があり，配達時間が短縮され，交通渋滞，運用コスト，事故が減少します。433 一方，海運業界では，多くの企業が低炭素燃料，再生可能エネルギー，新しい船舶設
計 (船体やプロペラなど) を模索して効率を高め，二酸化炭素排出量を削減しています。434 この種の変化は，より持続可能な生産とよりカスタマイズされた製品に対する顧客の需要の増加によっても推進されます (「消費」を参照)。
関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/PC 317, Privacy by design• ISO - Building a new consensus on trade• ISO/AWI TR 31700-2, Consumer protection – Privacy by design for consumer
goods and services – Part 2: Use cases

432.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

433.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

434.

Five future trends in the shipping industry (MARINEi, 2021)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

New business models
As digitalization has accelerated, so has economic connectedness, leading to the emergenceof today’s data-driven digital economy and, with it, some new business models.

Digital platforms

Related trends: 5G, Blockchain,
Customized products, Cybervulnerability, Data privacy,
Diversifying inequalities, Rise of
the middle class, Services moving
online, Spread of the Internet,
Sustainable production, Urbanization

The use of digital platforms (e-commerce platforms) has allowed sellers to connect directly
to buyers, to make more efficient exchanges, and to gain greater access to international
markets (especially in the case of SMEs).435 The role of the ‘middle-man’ in the economy(e.g. distributors and physical retailers) has been transformed and may eventually become
redundant.436 Advanced uptake of technologies such as ‘Artificial intelligence’ and ‘Blockchain’
are spurring this trend and the expansion and diversification of digital platforms is expected
to steadily increase over the next ten years.437 Because these digital platforms have the ability
to collect data at a massive scale, there is growing concern that large digital platforms are
already creating monopolistic or undesirable market conditions and that better regulation andglobal data governance are needed to combat this.438,439

435. Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)
436. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)437. Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)438. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)439. Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2021)‹ ›Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

EconomyEconomyPolitics

Science

Where to from here?

新しいビジネスモデル
デジタル化が加速するにつれて，経済的つながりも加速し，今日のデータ駆動型デジタル経済とそれに伴ういくつかの新しいビジネス モデルの出現につながります。

デジタルプラットフォーム
デジタル プラットフォーム (eコマース プラットフォーム) の使用により，売り手は買い手に直接接続
し，より効率的な交換を行い，国際市場へのアクセスを拡大することができます (特に中小企業の場
合)。435 経済における「仲介者」（流通業者や実店舗の小売業者など）の役割は変化しており，最終的には不要になる可能性があります。436 「人工知能」や「ブロックチェーン」などの技術の高度な取り込
みがこのトレンドに拍車をかけ，デジタル プラットフォームの拡大と多様化は，今後 10 年間で着実に増加すると予想されます。437 これらのデジタル プラットフォームは大規模にデータを収集する能力を備えているため，大規模なデジタル プラットフォームがすでに独占的または望ましくない市場条件を生み出しており，これに対抗するにはより良い規制とグローバル データ ガバナンスが必要であるという懸念が高まっています。438,439

435.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

436.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

437.

Digital megatrends. A perspective on the coming decade of digital disruption (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, 2019)

438.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

439.

Digital Economy Report 2021. Cross-border data flows and development: For whom the data flow (UN Conference on Trade andDevelopment, 2021)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

関連するトレンド：5G, ブロックチェー
ン, カスタマイズされた製品, サイバー脆弱性, データ保護, 不平等の多様化,
中産階級の台頭, サービスのオンライ
ン化, インターネットの普及, 持続可能な生産, 都市化

Sharing economy

One notable new business model that has been made possible bydigital platforms is the sharing economy (also called the ‘gig’ or ‘peerto-peer, P2P’ economy), which refers to a model of collaborative
consumption where people can use or consume a product orservice without taking full ownership (i.e. the owner of that resourceshares it), allowing people to redistribute and make use of excess
capacity of goods or services in the economy.440 Transactions areusually facilitated by a digital platform – Uber, the ride-sharing app,and Airbnb, the online marketplace for accommodation, are somewell-known examples. The sharing economy is expected to growsignificantly over the next ten years (with a predicted 35% growth
per year in Europe)441 and this growth is driven by societal andenvironmental trends such as ‘Urbanization’, consumer demand for‘Sustainable production’ and ‘Consumption’, and ‘Natural resource
scarcity’.442,443

Digital currencies

Alongside changes in how people buy and sell goods and services,
the emergence of digital currencies is changing the way people
pay for them. Digital currencies include cryptocurrencies, virtual
currencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Today, themost popular digital currencies are cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin,
which use ‘Blockchain’ technology to verify transactions (in a very
energy-intensive manner).444 However, it is predicted that digitalcurrencies will gain wider acceptance over the next 20 years as
more central banks begin to issue them to supplement or replace fiat
(physical) currencies.445 Developing countries, particularly in Africa,
have already shown a huge interest in digital currencies, driven by
the high use of mobile-banking services and young consumers.
Nigeria launched Africa’s first CBDC, the eNaira, in October 2021.446
China, South Africa and Sweden are amongst 14 countries piloting a
CBDC and, as of January 2022, 87 countries (making up over 90%
of global GDP) are exploring a CDBC (up from only 35 countries in
May 2020).447

440. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)
441.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)442. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)443. Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)444. Bitcoin Uses More Electricity Than Many Countries. How Is That Possible? (New York Times, 2021)
445. Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)
446. Widespread m-payment adoption in Africa inspires growing interest in crypto currencies (Nielsen, 2021)
447. Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (Atlantic Council, 2022)‹ ›Foreword

Society

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Where to from here?

シェアリングエコノミー

デジタル通貨デジタル プラットフォームによって可能になった注目すべき新しいビジネス

商品やサービスの売買方法の変化に加えて，デジタル通貨の出現により，モデルの 1 つは，シェアリングエコノミー (「gig」または「ピア ツー ピア，

人々の支払い方法が変化しています。デジタル通貨には，暗号通貨，仮想

P2P」経済とも呼ばれます) です。完全な所有権を取得せずに製品やサー

通貨，中央銀行デジタル通貨 (CBDC) が含まれます。今日，最も人気のあビスを消費する (つまり，その資源の所有者がそれを共有する) ことで，るデジタル通貨はビットコインのような暗号通貨であり，「ブロックチェーン」

人々は経済において財やサービスの余剰容量を再分配して利用できるよう技術を使用して取引を検証します (非常にエネルギー集約的な方法で)。444になります。440 通常，取引はデジタル プラットフォームによって促進されま

しかし，より多くの中央銀行が（物理的）不換通貨を補完または置き換えるす。配車アプリの Uber や，宿泊施設のオンライン マーケットプレイスであためにデジタル通貨を発行し始めるにつれて，デジタル通貨は今後20年間

る Airbnb は，よく知られている例です。シェアリング エコノミーは今後 10でより広く受け入れられるようになると予測されています。445 発展途上国，年間で大幅に成長すると予想されており (ヨーロッパでは年間 35% の成長

特にアフリカでは，モバイル バンキング サービスの利用率の高さと若い消が予測されています)441，この成長は，「都市化」，「持続可能な生産」と「消費者に後押しされて，すでにデジタル通貨に大きな関心を示しています。ナ

費」に対する消費者の需要，および「天然資源の不足」などの社会的およびイジェリアは，アフリカ初の CBDC である eNaira を 2021 年 10 月に開始

環境的トレンドによって促進されています。442,443しました。446 中国，南アフリカ，スウェーデンを含む 14 か国が CBDC を試験的に実施しており，2022 年 1 月の時点で，87 か国 (世界の GDP の
90% 以上を構成) が CDBC を検討しています ( 2020 年 5 月のわずか 35
か国から増加しています)。447

440.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

441.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

442.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)443.

Beyond the Noise. The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World (Deloitte, 2017)

444.

Bitcoin Uses More Electricity Than Many Countries. How Is That Possible? (New York Times, 2021)

445.

Global trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

446.

Widespread m-payment adoption in Africa inspires growing interest in crypto currencies (Nielsen, 2021)

447.

Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (Atlantic Council, 2022)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy

The advantages of digital currencies include that they are cheaper to administrate thanfiat currency and allow faster and lower-cost transactions (by cutting out intermediaries).
Their disadvantages include that they could enable the shadow economy by facilitating the
movement of funds by criminal organizations, they are vulnerable to hacking, and can bevolatile in value.448,449 Strong regulation will therefore be needed to control the impacts ofdigital currencies.
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - The sharing economy creates a moresustainable world

݁ ISO/TC 68/AG 5, Digital currencies
݁ ISO/TC 68/SC 2, Financial Services, security• ISO - A common language for digital currency• ISO 23195:2021, Security objectives of information systems of third-party payment services• ISO - The down-low on digital currency

݁ ISO/TC 68/SC 8, Reference data for financial services• ISO - New ISO solution to support thesharing economy• ISO 24165-1:2021, Digital token identifier (DTI) – Registration, assignment and structure –Part 1: Method for registration and assignment• ISO 24165-2:2021, Digital token identifier (DTI) – Registration, assignment and structure –Part 2: Data elements for registration

݁ ISO/TC 321, Transaction assurance in E-commerce• ISO/CD 32111.2, Transaction assurance in E-commerce – Principles and Framework

݁ ISO/TC 324, Sharing economy• ISO 42500:2021, Sharing economy – General principles

448. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)449. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹ ›Foreword

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Where to from here?

デジタル通貨の利点には，法定通貨よりも管理費が安く，（仲介業者を排除することで）より迅速かつ低コストの取引が可能になることが含まれます。それらの短所には，犯罪組織による資金の移動を容易にすることで影の経済を成り立たせる可能性があること，ハッキングに対して脆弱である
こと，価値が変動する可能性があることが含まれます。448,449 したがって，デジタル通貨の影響を制御するには，強力な規制が必要になります。

関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 68/AG 5, Digital currencies
݁◌ ISO/TC 68/SC 2, Financial Services, security• ISO - The sharing economy creates amore sustainable world݁◌ ISO/TC 68/SC 8, Reference data for financial services• ISO - New ISO solution to support thesharing economy• ISO 23195:2021, Security objectives of information systems of third-party payment services• ISO 24165-1:2021, Digital token identifier (DTI) – Registration, assignment and structure –Part 1: Method for registration and assignment• ISO 24165-2:2021, Digital token identifier (DTI) – Registration, assignment and structure –Part 2: Data elements for registration

݁◌ ISO/TC 321, Transaction assurance in E-commerce• ISO/CD 32111.2, Transaction assurance in E-commerce – Principles and Framework݁◌ ISO/TC 324, Sharing economy• ISO 42500:2021, Sharing economy – General principles

448.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)

449.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

EcoEcoEconomnomnomyy• ISO - A common language for digital currency• ISO - The down-low on digital currency

Politics

݁Power transition

政治

݁
◌

権力の移行

Power transition
Multipolarity | Decline of multilateralism | Regionalization
As the world moves towards multipolarity, some predict a decline of multilateralism as
international coordination becomes more difficult. Others see multipolarity as a potential
driver of increased interstate cooperation, forcing countries to form alliances to counteract
fragmentation. In either case, regional alliances are likely to become stronger and theregionalization that is already evident in trade statistics will probably continue.

Multipolarity
It is likely that, in the next 20 years, there will be no single state that can dominate all
regions of the world or all domains of influence. The relative power of countries such as
China and India is increasing with respect to existing powers such as Europe, the US andRussia. Alongside these, emerging powers such as Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey
and Vietnam, will also increasingly exert their influence at a regional and global level.450 The
nature of the relationships between these countries will be key to determining the kind ofinternational order that will emerge – if ideological differences and divisions over modelsof governance grow, then this could foster competition instead of cooperation and ”theintensity of competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the ColdWar”.451 But this global influence will not be decided primarily by military and economic power,
but by trade flows, aid and technology transfers, plus the number and quality of bilateralrelationships.452 What this multipolarity means for global governance is not yet clear (see‘Decline of multilateralism’).

Related trends: Changing
trade patterns, Decline ofmultilateralism, Urbanization450. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)
451.

Global Trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

452. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (EU Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹ ›Foreword

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Politics

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Where to from here?

権力の移行
多極性 | 多国間主義の衰退 | 地域化
世界が多極化に向かう中，国際協調がより困難になるにつれて，多国間主義の衰退を予測する人もいます。他の人々は，多極化が国家間の協力の増加の潜在的な原動力であり，各国が分断に対抗するために同盟を形成することを強いていると考えています。いずれにせよ，地域同盟はより強固になる可能性が高く，貿易統計ですでに明らかになっている地域化はおそらく続くでしょう。

多極性
今後 20 年間で，世界のすべての地域またはすべての勢力範囲を支配できる単一の国家は存在しない可能性があります。中国やインドなどの国の相対的な力は，ヨーロッパ，米国，ロシアなどの既存の力に対して増加しています。これらに加えて，ブラジル，インドネシア，メキシコ，ナイジェリア，トルコ，
ベトナムなどの新興大国も，地域および世界レベルでますます影響力を発揮します。450 これらの国々の間の関係の性質は，出現する国際秩序の種類を決定する鍵となるでしょう。イデオロギーの違いとガバナンスのモデルに関する分裂が拡大する場合，これは協力ではなく競争を助長し，「グローバルな影響力をめぐる競争の激しさ」を助長する可能性があります。冷戦以来の最高水準に達する可能性

関連するトレンド：貿易形態の変化, 多国間主義の衰退, 都市化が高いです」。451 しかし，このグローバルな影響力は，主に軍事力や経済力によって決まるのではな
く，貿易の流れ，援助，技術移転，および二国間関係の数と質によって決定されます。452 この多極化がグローバル ガバナンスにとって何を意味するのかはまだ明らかではありません (「多国間主義の衰退」を参照)。

450.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

451.

Global Trends 2040. A more contested world (US National Intelligence Council, 2021)

452.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (EU Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹
Foreword

Society

Technology

Environment

Economy›Politics
Politicsolitics

Science

Where to from here?

Decline of multilateralism

Related trends:
Multipolarity,
Changing
trade patterns

The multilateral system put in place after World War II was designed to foster cooperation
between countries and improve their ability to pursue common goals and tackle global
challenges. But these institutions may no longer be fit for purpose in a multipolar world
and there are already serious signs of weaknesses in the system (as demonstrated by the
response to the COVID-19 pandemic).453
As global power becomes more diffused, it may become even more difficult to reachagreement between countries within international institutions such as the United Nations. As
a result, the universalist approach to international law and human rights could be challenged –“with competing local and regional understandings of international norms likely to prevail”.454 If
international institutions are weakened or even collapse, responses to global challenges suchas climate change, poverty or technology governance will become more uncertain.455 The risein nationalism, protectionism and populism in some countries has been linked to this sense ofincreased uncertainty about multipolarity and its effects on multilateralism.456

453. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)
454. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)455. The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)
456. Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (EU Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹ ›Foreword

Society

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Where to from here?

多国間主義の衰退

関連するトレンド：
多極性, 貿易形態の変化

第二次世界大戦後に導入された多国間システムは，国家間の協力を促進し，共通の目標を追求
し，地球規模の課題に取り組む能力を向上させることを目的としています。しかし，これらの機関は，多極化した世界ではもはや目的に適わない可能性があり，システムにはすでに重大な弱点の兆候があります (COVID-19 パンデミックへの対応が示すように)。453
グローバルな権力が拡散するにつれて，国連などの国際機関内で国家間の合意に達することがさらに困難になる可能性があります。その結果，国際法と人権への普遍主義的アプローチは課題を抱える可能性があります。454 国際機関が弱体化したり，崩壊したりすると，気候変動，貧困，テクノロジー ガバナンスなどの世界的な課題への対応がますます不確実になります。455 一部の国での国粋主義，保護主義，ポピュリズムの台頭は，多極化とその多国間主義への影響に関する不確実性の高まりに関連しています。456

453.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

454.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

455.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)

456.

Global Trends to 2030. Challenges and choices for Europe (EU Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2019)‹›

Politicsolitics

Nevertheless, there is a distinct lack of agreement on which way this trend will go – even if
institutions are weakened, some argue that multilateralism will continue, potentially in a modified
form involving companies, civil society, governments and international institutions (multistakeholder multilateralism). The majority of countries may continue to see value in international
institutions and, even if their reform is challenging, these institutions could continue to exist andremain influential.457

Regionalization

Related trends: Declineof multilateralism

If globalization has slowed or stalled, then it has arguably been replaced by regionalization –countries are trading more and becoming more interdependent with those in geographicalproximity to them.458 Regional alliances are forming out of economic pragmatism, to strengthen
security, and to increase regional resilience to global shocks or crises.459 However, there is a riskthat as integration within regions increases, divisions between regions could grow, especially ifnationalism continues to flourish and leads to more protectionist policies.460

457. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)458. Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)459. Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
460. Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs for the Future, 2017)‹ ›Foreword

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Where to from here?

それにもかかわらず，このトレンドがどの方向に進むかについては明確な合意は得られていません。た
とえ制度が弱体化したとしても，企業，市民社会，政府，国際機関が関与する可能性のある修正された
形で多国間主義が続くと主張する人もいます（マルチステークホルダー型多国間主義）。大多数の国は国際機関に価値を見出し続けている可能性があり，その改革が困難であっても，これらの機関は存続
し，影響力を持ち続けることができます。457

地域化
グローバル化が減速または停滞している場合，それは間違いなく地域化に取って代わられています。

関連するトレンド：多国間主義の衰退

国々はより多くの貿易を行い，地理的に近い国との相互依存を深めています。458 経済的プラグマティ
ズムから地域同盟が形成され，安全保障を強化し，世界的な衝撃や危機に対する地域の回復力を高めています。459 しかし，地域内での統合が進むにつれて，特に国粋主義が繁栄し続け，より保護主義的な政策につながる場合，地域間の分断が拡大するリスクがあります。460

457.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

458.

Global Connectivity Outlook to 2030 (World Bank, 2019)

459.

Global Trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American
Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)

460.

Future Outlook. 100 Global Trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs for the Future, 2017)‹›

Politicsolitics

Science݁

Biotechnology

科学

݁
◌

バイオテクノロジー

Biotechnology
Gene editing | Synthetic biology
Biotechnology uses living organisms and biological systems to create new products. Over thelast 50 years, this field has developed rapidly because of advances in genetic engineeringthat allow scientists to make changes to organisms’ DNA. New methods of genetic
modification have led to rapid advances in gene editing and testing and have also becomemuch more targeted, quicker, and cheaper. According to the US National Intelligence Council,“biotechnologies are at an inflection point […] turning science fiction into reality.”461
Within the broad category of biotechnology, there are many emerging developments that are
mentioned below (and many, many more that we do not have space to cover). Although itlies at the crossroads between the categories of science and technology, biotechnology is
included in the ‘Science’ category here because its foundations are in scientific research andexperimentation – and it overlaps with many other scientific fields such as molecular biology,
biochemistry, and genomics. Nevertheless, a lot of the developments mentioned here havestrong links to other trends in the technology category (e.g. ‘Artificial intelligence’).
While international standardization is no stranger to the field of biotechnology (ISO/TC 276,
Biotechnology, was created back in 2013), the pace of development in this field and thebreadth of its applications means that this is an area to watch for emerging-market needs.

461.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹ ›Foreword

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Where to from here?

バイオテクノロジー
遺伝子編集 | 合成生物学
バイオテクノロジーは，生物と生物学的システムを使用して新しい製品を作成します。過去 50 年間で，科学者が生物の DNA を変更できるようにする遺伝子工学の進歩により，この分野は急速に発展しました。遺伝子改変の新しい方法は，遺伝子の編集と検査の急速な進歩につながり，より的を絞った，より迅速で安価なものにもなりました。米国国家情報評議会によると，「バイオテクノロジーは変曲点にある[…] サイエンス フィクションを現実に変える。」461
バイオテクノロジーの幅広いカテゴリーの中で，以下に言及されている多くの新たな開発があります(そして，紙面の都合で書ききれないさらに多くのものがあります)。バイオテクノロジーは，科学と技術のカテゴリーの交差点に位置していますが，ここでは「科学」のカテゴリーに含まれています。これは，その基礎が科学的研究と実験にあり，分子生物学，生化学，およびゲノミクスなどの他の多くの科学分野と重複しているためです。それにもかかわらず，ここで言及されている開発の多くは，テクノロジー カテゴリ
ーの他のトレンド (「人工知能」など) と強いつながりがあります。
国際標準化はバイオテクノロジーの分野では珍しいことではありませんが (ISO/TC 276，バイオテクノ
ロジーは 2013 年に設立されました)，この分野での開発のペースとそのアプリケーションの幅広さは，これが注目すべき新興市場のニーズの分野であることを意味します。

461.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)‹
Foreword

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Science
ScienceScience

Where to from here?

Gene editing

Related trends: Ageing
population, Artificial
intelligence, Ethics oftechnology, Synthetic biology

Advances in gene editing could potentially lead to enormous breakthroughs in human health,agricultural and industrial productivity, and sustainability. Technologies such as clusteredregularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) have transformed this field, byenabling extensive genome editing and allowing scientists to precisely edit DNA using abacterial enzyme.462
Gene editing could lead to significant improvements in human health and medicine byeliminating hereditary diseases (by modifying or replacing illness-causing genes), providing
more effective and targeted treatments for diseases such as cancer, and eliminating causes of
disease (e.g. malarial carrying mosquitoes).463,464 As gene editing technologies become fasterand cheaper, they will foster the shift towards personalized medicine.465 They could evenallow the transplant of animal organs into humans – in October 2021, a significant step was
made towards animal-to-human transplants as surgeons in the US tested the transplant of agenetically modified pig kidney on a deceased recipient.466,467
Applying biotechnology such as gene editing to food production has the potential tosignificantly increase the sustainability of food production by boosting agricultural yields while
reducing land and water use, increasing the nutritional content of food, and increasing crop462. 2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)
463. 20 new technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)
464. Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)465. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)466. Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)
467. Surgeons successfully test pig kidney transplant in human patient (The Guardian, 2021)‹ ›Foreword

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Where to from here?

遺伝子編集遺伝子編集の進歩は，人間の健康，農業および産業の生産性，持続可能性に大きなブレークスルーを

関連するトレンド： 人口の高齢化, 人工知能 , 技術の倫理, 合成生物学

もたらす可能性があります。クラスター化して規則的な配置の短い回文配列リピート(CRISPR) などの技術は，広範なゲノム編集を可能にし，科学者が細菌酵素を使用して DNA を正確に編集できるようにすることで，この分野を変革しました。462
遺伝子編集は，遺伝性疾患を排除し（病気の原因となる遺伝子を改変または置換することにより），癌などの疾患に対してより効果的で的を絞った治療を提供し，疾患の原因（マラリアを媒介する蚊など）を排除することにより，人間の健康と医療を大幅に改善する可能性があります。463,464 遺伝子編集技術がより高速かつ安価になるにつれて，個別化医療への移行が促進されます。465 2021 年 10 月には，動物からヒトへの移植に向けた重要な一歩が踏み出されました。米国の外科医が，死亡したレシピエントに対する遺伝子組み換えブタの腎臓の移植をテストしたからです。466,467
遺伝子編集などのバイオテクノロジーを食料生産に適用すると，土地や水の使用量を減らしながら農業の収穫量を増やし，食料の栄養成分を増やし，作物の回復力 (害虫や悪天候に対する耐性) を高める
ことで，食料生産の持続可能性を大幅に高める可能性があります。 CRISPR 技術を使用することで，

462.

2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)

463.

20 new technology trends we will see in the 2020s (BBC Science Focus Magazine, 2020)

464.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)

465.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

466.

Global Trends 2020. Understanding Complexity (Ipsos, 2020)

467.

Surgeons successfully test pig kidney transplant in human patient (The Guardian, 2021)‹›

ScienceScienceresilience (resistance to pests and severe weather). Even meateating could become sustainable if the use of CRISPR technology
can make the process of growing meat in the lab much cheaper andmore efficient.468 All these factors will be increasingly important toguarantee food security for populations dealing with the effects ofclimate change.469
Broader sustainability impacts could result from the application ofgene editing technologies to create microbes that can produce
biofuels, new construction materials, biodegradable plastics andmore.470 For example, cities of the future could potentially be lit up(at no cost and with no emissions) by bioluminescent algae, or plantsthat have been engineered to glow through the addition of genes forfluorescent proteins from these algae or jellyfish.

Nevertheless, there are moral and ethical questions that will arise as
gene editing technologies become more advanced and where it may
be difficult to find international consensus.471 Human augmentation(enhancing human physical or cognitive abilities), the safety ofgenetically modified food or animals, the large-scale collection
and storage of genetic data, and the possibility that gene editing
technologies could be used to create targeted biological weapons –these are all issues likely to raise divisive political debates.

468. Memphis meats uses crispr to create real meat from animal cells (Trendhunter, 2019)469. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)
470. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)
471.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹ ›Foreword

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実験室での肉の生産プロセスがはるかに安価で効率的になれば，肉を食べることさえも持続可能になる可能性があります。468 これらすべての要因
は，気候変動の影響に対処する人々の食料安全保障に対処するためにますます重要になります。469

それにもかかわらず，遺伝子編集技術がより高度になり，国際的なコンセン
サスを見つけることが困難になる可能性がある場合，道徳的および倫理的な問題が発生する可能性があります。471 人間の拡張 (人間の身体能力または遺伝子編集技術を応用して，バイオ燃料，新しい建設資材，生分解性プラ

認知能力の向上)，遺伝子組み換え食品または動物の安全性，遺伝子データの大規模な収集と保存，および遺伝子編集技術を使用して標的生物兵器を作成できる可能性があり，これらはすべて，分裂的な政治的議論を引き起こ

スチックなどを生産できる微生物を作成することで，より広範な持続可能性

す可能性が高い問題です。

への影響が生じる可能性があります。470 たとえば，未来の都市は，生物発
光藻類，またはこれらの藻類やクラゲからの蛍光タンパク質の遺伝子を追加することで光るように設計された植物によって，(費用も排出量もなしに)ライトアップされる可能性があります。

468.

Memphis meats uses crispr to create real meat from animal cells (Trendhunter, 2019)

469.

Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)

470.

Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe’s technology leaders (European Commission, 2019)

471.

Global Strategic Trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)‹›

ScienceScienceRelevant ISO technical committees and standards

Relevant ISO news stories• ISO - Injecting quality into biobanks

݁ ISO/TC 276, Biotechnology• ISO - The new dawn of disease control• ISO 5058-1:2021, Biotechnology – Genome editing – Part 1: Vocabulary• ISO 20387:2018, Biotechnology – biobanking – General requirements for biobanking• ISO/TR 22758:2020, Biotechnology – biobanking – Implementation guide for ISO 20387

݁ ISO/TC 34/SC 16, Horizontal methods for molecular biomarker analysis• IWA 32:2019, Screening of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in cotton and textiles

݁ ISO/TC 215/SC 1, Genomics informatics• ISO/TS 22693:2021, Genomics informatics – Structured clinical gene fusion report in electronic
health records‹ ›Foreword

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関連するISO専門委員会および規格

関連するISOニュースストーリー݁◌ ISO/TC 276, Biotechnology• ISO - Injecting quality into biobanks• ISO 5058-1:2021, Biotechnology – Genome editing – Part 1: Vocabulary• ISO - The new dawn of disease control• ISO 20387:2018, Biotechnology – biobanking – General requirements for biobanking• ISO/TR 22758:2020, Biotechnology – biobanking – Implementation guide for ISO 20387

݁◌ ISO/TC 34/SC 16, Horizontal methods for molecular biomarker analysis• IWA 32:2019, Screening of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in cotton and textiles

݁◌ ISO/TC 215/SC 1, Genomics informatics• ISO/TS 22693:2021, Genomics informatics – Structured clinical gene fusion report in electronic
health records‹›

ScienceScienceSynthetic Biology

Related trends: Artificial
intelligence, Ethics oftechnology, Gene editing,Threatened ecosystems

Synthetic biology refers to the use of certain tools and approaches within biotechnology
to create new biological parts or systems, for a specific purpose. These tools may include
gene editing and there is certainly overlap and blurred lines between these two trends.
However, the scale of DNA changes introduced in synthetic biology is generally larger, andsynthetic biology also incorporates the fields of engineering, design, and computer science.
A consensus definition drafted by a group of European experts defined synthetic biology as
follows: Synthetic biology is the engineering of biology: the synthesis of complex, biologically
based (or inspired) systems, which display functions that do not exist in nature. This
engineering perspective may be applied at all levels of the hierarchy of biological structures −from individual molecules to whole cells, tissues, and organisms. In essence, synthetic biology
will enable the design of biological systems in a rational and systematic way.472
The emerging global market for synthetic biology was estimated to be worth USD 11 billion in2018 and to grow by 24% by 2025.473 Several notable trends in synthetic biology include474:•

mRNA vaccines: Instead of using bits of a live or dead virus, these vaccines introduce
mRNA molecules that cause the body’s own cells to produce a protein, which thenelicits an immune response. The mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 approved in December
2020 (Pfizer and Moderna) were the first ever mRNA vaccines to be marketed.
In addition this type of vaccine has huge promise because it is quicker to design andtest and can be made synthetically, without cultured cell-lines.

472. Synthetic Biology. Applying Engineering to Biology: Report of a NEST high-level expert group (European Commission, 2005)
473. Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)
474. 2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)‹ ›Foreword

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合成生物学
合成生物学は，特定の目的のために，新しい生物学的部分またはシステムを作成するためにバイオテクノロジー内で特定のツールとアプローチを使用することを指します。これらのツールには
遺伝子編集が含まれている可能性があり，これら 2 つのトレンドの間には確かに重なり合い，曖昧な境界線があります。ただし，合成生物学で導入される DNA 変更の規模は一般的に大きく，
合成生物学には工学，デザイン，コンピューター サイエンスの分野も組み込まれています。ヨーロ
ッパの専門家グループによって起草されたコンセンサス定義では，合成生物学は次のようになっ

関連するトレンド： 人工知能, 技術の倫理, 遺伝子編集, 脅かされている生態系ています。合成生物学は生物学の工学：自然界には存在しない機能を示す複雑な生物学に基づく (またはインスピレーションを受けた) システムの合成。この工学の観点は，個々の分子から細胞全体，組織，生物まで，生物学的構造の階層のすべてのレベルに適用できます。本質的に，合成
生物学は，合理的かつ体系的な方法で生物学的システムの設計を可能にします。472
合成生物学の新興世界市場は，2018 年に 110 億米ドルの価値があり，2025 年までに 24% 成
長すると推定されています。473 合成生物学のいくつかの注目すべきトレンドには，次のものがあり
ます474 ：•mRNA ワクチン： 生きたウイルスや死んだウイルスの一部を使用する代わりに，これらのワク
チンは mRNA 分子を導入して体自身の細胞にタンパク質を生成させ，免疫反応を誘発します。
2020 年 12 月に承認された COVID-19 の mRNA ワクチン (ファイザーとモデルナ) は，市販された最初の mRNA ワクチンでした。さらに，このタイプのワクチンは，設計とテストが迅速で，培養細胞株を使用せずに合成的に作成できるため，大きな可能性を秘めています。

472.

Synthetic Biology. Applying Engineering to Biology: Report of a NEST high-level expert group (European Commission, 2005)

473.

Future possibilities report 2020 (UAE Government, 2020)

474.

2021 Tech trends report. Strategic trends that will influence business, government, education, media and society in the coming
year (Future Today Institute, 2021)‹›

ScienceScience••Organoids and organs-on-chips: Organoids are tiny in vitro organs grown from humanstem-cells. These allow scientists to study how human tissue responds to drugs,
viruses, and other stimuli in vitro. Organs-on-chips (or micro-physiological systems)
are used for the same purpose but are engineered systems where cells from organs aregrown on a chip (instead of in culture), which allows for a much more precise control of
the cells and their micro-environment. This can lead to the development of much moreadvanced in vitro models of human systems.
DNA memory: In 2018, scientists discovered how to create random access memory (RAM)on DNA at scale. In 2020, Chinese scientists at Tianjin University stored 445 kB of data in acell on the E. coli bacterium. Current magnetic or optical data-storage systems require hugeamounts of space and energy. Using DNA as a medium for storing data could potentiallysolve future data-storage problems, as DNA data storage is durable and hundreds ofterabytes of capacity could be stored in a pill-sized container.
Relevant ISO technical committees and standards
݁ ISO/TC 276, Biotechnology• ISO 20688-1:2020, Biotechnology – Nucleic acid synthesis – Part 1: Requirements forthe production and quality control of synthesized oligonucleotides• ISO/TS 23565:2021, Biotechnology – Bioprocessing – General requirements and considerations
for equipment systems used in the manufacturing of cells for therapeutic use

݁ ISO/TC 34/SC 16, Horizontal methods for molecular biomarker analysis• ISO 20688-1:2020, Biotechnology – Nucleic acid synthesis – Part 1: Requirements forthe production and quality control of synthesized oligonucleotides‹ ›Foreword

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•

オルガノイドと臓器オンチップ： オルガノイドは，ヒト幹細胞から成長した小さな生体外臓器です。これらにより，科学者は，人間の組織が生体外で薬物，ウイルス，およびその他の刺激にどのように反応するかを研究することができます。臓器オンチップ (またはマイクロ生理学的システム) も同じ目的で使用されますが，臓器の細胞を (培養ではなく) チップ上で増殖させるように設計されたシステムであり，細胞とそのミクロ環境をより正確に制御します。これは，人間のシステムのはるかに高度な生体外モデルの開発につながる可能性があります。

•

DNA メモリ： 2018 年，科学者は DNA 上にランダム アクセス メモリ (RAM) を大規模に作成する方法を発見しました。 2020 年，中国の天津大学の科学者は，大腸菌に関するセルに 445 kB のデータを保存しました。現在の磁気または光データ ストレージ システムは，膨大なスペースとエネル
ギーを必要とします。 DNAデータストレージは耐久性があり，錠剤サイズの容器に数百テラバイトの容量を保存できるため，DNAをデータ保存媒体として使用すると，将来のデータストレージの問
題を解決できる可能性があります。

関連するISO専門委員会および規格݁◌ ISO/TC 276, Biotechnology• ISO 20688-1:2020, Biotechnology – Nucleic acid synthesis – Part 1: Requirements forthe production and quality control of synthesized oligonucleotides• ISO/TS 23565:2021, Biotechnology – Bioprocessing – General requirements and considerations
for equipment systems used in the manufacturing of cells for therapeutic use݁◌ ISO/TC 34/SC 16, Horizontal methods for molecular biomarker analysis• ISO 20688-1:2020, Biotechnology – Nucleic acid synthesis – Part 1: Requirements forthe production and quality control of synthesized oligonucleotides‹›

ScienceScienceWhere to from here?

ここからどこへ？

ISO Standardization Foresight Framework | Trend Report 2022

The purpose of this report is to get you thinking about the trends that will shape the future.
We have provided a high-level overview of how the world is changing and how the futureis emerging, linking this to the work currently underway in ISO’s technical committees. The
trends we have covered are diverse, and yet, the number of interlinkages between themdemonstrates that they are all connected. What is clear is that we cannot understand thefuture by thinking in silos; it is the interactions between these drivers of change that will
shape the world in the years to come and that will provide both challenges and opportunities
for standardization.

The future doesn’t standstill: Continuation ofenvironmental scanningBecause the trends presented in this report are
high-level and long-term driving forces, they
do have some degree of longevity. But they arenevertheless in continual evolution and will no
doubt interact in unpredictable ways, leading tochanging trajectories.
The environmental scanning phase of the
ISO Foresight Framework therefore does not end
with this report. The ISO/CS R&I Unit will continue
to review new trend reports and analyze as they are
published, with a view to updating this trend reportand publishing a new edition, as necessary.

Foreword

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Where to from here?

ISO標準化 展望フレームワーク | トレンドレポート 2022

このレポートの目的は，将来を形作るトレンドについて考えてもらうことです。世界がどのように変化し，将来がどのように出現するかについてのハイレベルな概要を提供
し，これを ISO 専門委員会で現在進行中の業務に関連付けました。私たちが取り上げてきたトレンドは多様ですが，それらの間の相互関係の数は，それらがすべて関連
していることを示しています。はっきりしているのは，狭い視野で考えていては未来を理解できないということです。今後数年間で世界を形作り，標準化の課題と機会の両方を提供するのは，これらの変化の原動力間の相互作用です。

未来は止まらない：
環境スキャンの継続
このレポートに示されているトレンドは，ハイレベルで長期的な原動力であるため，ある程度の持続性があります。しかし，それにもかかわらず，それらは継続的に進化しており，間違いなく予測不可能な方法で相互作用し，軌道の変化につながります。
したがって，ISO展望フレームワークの環境スキャン フェーズは，このレポートで終了するわけではありません。
ISO/CS R&I ユニットは，必要に応じて，このトレンド レ
ポートを更新し，新しい版を発行することを視野に入れて，新しいトレンド レポートをレビューし，それらが発行されるたびに分析を続けます。

WherWheree t o frfromomInternational Organization forStandardization
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