Scenarios for Transformation toward
Climate-Neutral Society
ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo, 6 March 2023

Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Group of Chief Scientific Advisers
Former Deputy Director General
Former Tenured Professor
Nakicenovic

2022 #1

The World is at “Crossroads”

Explosive development also led to transgressing
planetary boundaries and many are left behind Since 1800 global economy increased 100-fold, energy
50 times and CO2 30 times bringing multiple benefits During the same period temperature increased over 1oC,
about 8 million die annually due to indoor and regional airpollution
 Achievement of 2030 Agenda and Paris Agreement would
bring multiple co-benefits for people and the planet
Nakicenovic

2022 #2

Four Raiders of the Apocalypse
Death, Famine, War, and Conquest

A metaphor depicting the end of times in the Christian scriptures
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Source: Painting by Viktor Vasnetsov, 1887

2022 #3

Fossil CO2 emission intensity
Global CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from global crises.
Emission intensity has steadily declined but not sufficiently to offset economic growth.

Each trend line is based on the five years before the crisis and extended to five years after.
Economic activity is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2010 US dollars.
Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022
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2022 #4

Global Mean Temperature Change

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Source: Climate.NASA.gov

2022 #5

Holocene, Paris &Tipping Elements

Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

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Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 20162022 #6

Nakicenovic

2022 #7

11 GtCO2400 ppmv
760 EJ

1981
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2022 #8

1986

The Kaya identity states thatthe total emission level ofthe greenhouse gas carbon
dioxide can be expressedas the product of four
factors: human population,
GDP per capita, energy
intensity (per unit of GDP),and carbon intensity(emissions per unit ofenergy consumed).

1993
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2022 #9Distinguished Visiting Fellow Award Ceremony forProf. Yoichi Kaya at IIASA on 23 May 2019
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2022 #10

Evidence-based Scientific Advice is called for

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2022 #11

Energy (Demand) Decent Living and Sufficiency
service provision(consumption)

Sufficiency
Decent Living
Standards→ Doing More with Less - Low with Highoverconsumption(obesity)
Sufficiency corridor

Basic Accesswellbeing→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics
Nakicenovic for a just, safe and beautiful future for all
2022 #12

conversion efficiency
e.g., devices

service efficiency
e.g., device convergencecirculardesignefficiency
improvement

technologicalinnovation

technologicalinnovation
institutionalinnovation
performancestandards

institutionalinnovation
open data
platforms

legitimate
value capturebusiness model
innovation

behaviouralinnovation
digital skills &embedding

Tapping theenormous
potential forservices-led
transformation
Source: Wilson, Grubler, andZimm (2022). Energy-Services
Led Transformation. In:
Routledge Handbook ofEnergy Transitions (Ed:Araujo).
Data from: Grubler et al.
(2018), De Stercke (2014),
Nakicenovic et al. (1993),
Nakicenovic (1990).

[a] Industry Energy
100%

100%

75%

75%

50%50%25%25%0%0%

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergyserviceenergy100%100%75%75%

50%

50%25%25%0%0%

serviceenergy208 EJ
72 EJ

serviceenergy[e] Materials: SteelOre &Scrap
Inputs[c] Transport Energy

Crude
steel

Purchased Recovered
products post use
scap[f] Irrigation Water

100%

100%

75%

75%

50%

50%

25%

25%

0%

14378 EJ

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergy[b] Building Energy

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergy[d] Total Energy

511 EJ

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergyserviceenergy

0%

Water

Crop

Food

Nutritionsavings
amplify backup throughresource
conversion
cascade ….
and provide
more flexibility
and resilience
in resource
conversion andprovision ofservices.

‘High-with-Low’ scenario further develops
3 key themes from LED … and cross-cutting linkages
decent living
standards
inclusive, decentralised innovation,with social support mechanisms
peer effects andnetwork effects

adaptability to local needs,
and local learning

CROSSCUTTING
LINKAGES

digitalisation

managing complexity on
shared infrastructures

innovation
coordination andgovernance

Figure source: Charlie Wilson, 2022, EDITS Annual MeetingGlobal Primary Energy

Low Energy Demand (LED) – High Services
1200
1000

EJ

800
600
400

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~55% improvement by 2030

Savings
Other Ren.
NuclearGas
Oil
Coal
Biomass~20% renewables by 2030o≈ 1.5 C→ “Adjusted” Peak

Renewables
NuclearGas
Oil

200

Coal01850

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Biomass

1900

1950

2000

Source: After Grubler et al, 2018

2050

2022 #16

Disruptive End-user Innovations

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Source: Wilson et al., 2022

2022 #17

Impact of IC Technology Convergence

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Source: Grubler et al., 20182022 #18

Technological Uncertainties:
Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)
1.5

1.5
0.1%

Cost index ($/kW)

Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000

1.0

1.0

50% interval
90% intervalmean learning rate
(115 case studies):-20% per doubling

0.50.5PVs Japan
1976-1995
0.1%

0.00

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12340.056789101112

Number of doublings (installed capacity)

Source: Grubler et al., 2005

131415#192006

Technology Diffusion Compared

Digital Revolution

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Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 20172022 #20

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Human capacity
Demography &HealthDigital
Revolution

Smart Cities& Mobility

Food, Biosphere& WaterNakicenovic

SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability

Consumption& Production

Decarbonization& Energy2022 #21

The New Bauhaus World● The New European Bauhaus translates

the European Green Deal into a tangible,
positiveexperienceinwhichall
Europeans can participate and progress
together.
● It inspires a movement to facilitate andsteer the transformation of our societies
along three inseparable values:
Sustainability, from climate goals to circularity and biodiversity

Inclusion, from valorizing diversity to accessibility and affordability
Beauty, from aesthetics of experience to style beyond functionality● The approach is multi-level from global to local, participatory andtransdisciplinary.

2022 #22

Social and Technological Change
 Changing consumer preferences (e.g. diets) Generational change in materialism(service rather than ownership) New business models and behaviors(sharing & circular economy)
 Digital Revolution and ICT convergence
toward climte-neutral society (Society 5.0)
 Rapid innovation in granular technologies
and integrated (e.g. P2P) digital services
Nakicenovic

2023 #23

ありがとうwww.TWI2050.org SAM
naki@eeg.tuwien.ac.at