JIIA Forum Summary of Lecture
Friday, April 2, 2010
“Aso” Hall, The Tokai University Club,
35th Floor, Kasumigaseki Bldg

Mr. Ahmed Rashid
Journalist
Current Afghanistan-Pakistan Affairs

Introduction
I would like to take this opportunity today to speak on three topics: the situation inAfghanistan, developments in Pakistan, and Japan’s policy toward Afghanistan. I will also
include some policy suggestions with each of these.
1．The current situation in Afghanistan
Recent years have seen a striking expansion of Taliban power in Afghanistan, andindependent authoritative bodies that might well be termed “shadow governments” havebeen formed in 30 of the country’s 34 states. In fact, the situation differs greatly from thatof the 1990s in that the Taliban have incited actions by Islamic fundamentalist groups acrossthe region and that similar terrorist acts are being committed even in Central Asia and India.
However, this expansion of Taliban power relies more on oppression, fear and terror than on
popular support, reflecting the Karzai government’s limited capacity to implement policy aswell as reduced aid from overseas.

In other words, adequately thwarting the resurgence of

the Taliban depends on Western strategy.

Today’s situation could be seen as thecumulative result of strategic blunders, including the cut in aid and the slowdown ineconomic reconstruction in the wake of the war in Iraq, the greater effort focused by theBush administration on bringing down Al Qaeda than the Taliban, the provision of safe
havens to the Taliban by Pakistan, and the adverse impact of hasty implementation of thepeace process on domestic and international confidence.
The situation has continued to improve since the Obama administration came into office.
In addition to an increase in the military forces deployed, noteworthy measures such as theadoption of a new counter-terrorism strategy aimed at winning hearts and minds throughlivelihood stabilization and efforts to boost interest in domestic economic development(especially in agriculture-related infrastructure) have been taken and are producing results.
However, the announcement by the Obama administration of an early start to withdrawal(July 2011) has worsened the situation in Afghanistan, within which a deeply rooted ethnic1

struggle is being fought, and concerns have arisen that Afghanistan will become an arena
for a competition in influence among countries in the region.

The minimum precondition forwithdrawal will likely be the formation of a regional consensus on non-intervention in
Afghanistan’s internal affairs.

There are a mountain of other difficult issues to beaddressed – negotiations between the US and the Taliban, a break of the Taliban from Al
Qaeda, etc. – but it is crucial in any case that the Afghan government participate in theseprocesses as a key actor.
2. The current situation in Pakistan
The crisis confronting Pakistan at present is a composite one.

On the political side, theZardari civilian government established in September 2008 not only has strong tensions
with the military but also faces problems pertaining to its own governance capabilities.
Economically, the country is in a serious bind, with the global recession and the energy crisis
compounding the scant regard given to investing in infrastructure, cultivating exportindustries and ensuring consumer protection under the Musharraf government.

Thenationwide expansion of terrorist actions by the “Pakistani Taliban movement” andunresolved ethnic and regional issues such as that of Balochistan have further destabilized
the government, and externally relations with India have deteriorated over territorial rights in
the Kashmir region, water resources, influence in Afghanistan and terrorist organizations.
There are two “strategic issues” that are key in seeking solutions to these problems.
The first is the issue of where Pakistan should look to discover its own national identity.
With opinion split over such labels as “Muslim,” “democratic,” “ethnic group,” and“anti-India,” discussions are needed on “what makes us Pakistanis.”
The second is the issue of what constitutes Pakistan’s security paradigm.

In Pakistan there

is a mixture between the contradictory concepts of a “military paradigm” aimed at developing
a wartime framework that keeps the country’s rivalry with India foremost in mind, and a “civilsociety paradigm” emphasizing development, education, commerce, good-neighbor policies,and disarmament.
Seen from this perspective, it would seem especially important for Pakistan to build
cooperative ties between the military and civilian leadership, to play a role in promoting (butnot brokering) the peace process in Afghanistan, and to receive aid from the West in a form
that contributes to economic development and the growth of civil society.
3. Japan’s policy toward Afghanistan
Japan is Afghanistan’s second largest donor after the US and the breadth of its aid coverage
is noteworthy, e.g., the development of agricultural infrastructure to replace narcotic

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cultivation, the formation of civil society and the creation of employment.

In particular, theimpressive ability of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to analyze needs,
propose solutions and implement assistance efforts as well as the depth of interest in
Afghanistan demonstrated by Sadako Ogata (JICA’s current president) in Afghanistan are
distinguishing characteristics of Japan’s Afghanistan policy.
Naturally there are still problems that need to be overcome.

Let me conclude my talk by

touching on three of them.
First, there is still room for improvement in monitoring the use and assessment of the funds
invested.

Closer coordination should be pursued, with greater efforts made to ascertaining

the actual state of corruption and graft, uncovering wasteful spending, and avoiding overlaps
with aid provided by other countries.
Next, Japan has a major influence on, and still maintains relatively good relations with, thecountries surrounding Afghanistan.

Japan should take advantage of this position to help

smooth the formation of a consensus among these countries.
Finally, in view of the sizable role that Japan is playing in Afghanistan and the surrounding
region, most important in determining how it can exercise its influence is stimulating interest
among the public at large.

In this regard, it is essential that the Japanese public on thewhole view the effective utilization of funds provided by Japan clearly to be in Japan’snational interest.

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