12ESTIMATION OF FUTURE POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND OF URBAN CENTERS
OF INDIA: A CASE STUDY OF JAIPUR CITY
Kumari Anamika and Chilka Sharma
School of Earth Sciences, Banasthali Vidyapith Deemed University, Banasthali (Raj.) India
Email:ana.mika7026@gmail.com, chilkasharma@gmail.com

How to cite this paper:
Kumari Anamika, Sharma
Chilka (2023) Estimation of
Future Population and Water
Demand of Urban Centers ofIndia: A Case Study of Jaipur
City, Journal of Global
Resources, Vol. 09 (02)DOI:10.46587/JGR.2023.v09i02.012

Received: 30 April 2023
Reviewed: 11 June 2023
Final Accepted: 25 June 2023

Abstract: The rapid urbanization and population growth inIndia have led to increased pressure on water resources inurban centers. As one of the fastest-growing cities in the
country, Jaipur is facing significant challenges in meeting thewater demands of its expanding population. Therefore, it is
crucial to estimate the future population and water demandof Jaipur city to develop effective strategies for sustainable
water management. This case study aims to estimate thefuture population and water demand of Jaipur city using acomprehensive analysis of demographic and water
consumption trends. The study utilizes a combination of
statistical methods, demographic projections, and water
demand modeling techniques to provide a holistic
understanding of the city's future water requirements. The
results of this case study provide valuable insights into the
future population growth and water demand trends of Jaipurcity. The findings can assist urban planners, policymakers,
and water resource managers in formulating effective
strategies for sustainable water management andinfrastructure development. The study emphasizes theimportance of incorporating future population growth
projections and water demand estimations into long-term
urban planning processes. This case study contributes to theunderstanding of the challenges posed by population growthand urbanization on water resources in India, using Jaipur
city as a specific example. The estimation of future
population and water demand serves as a foundation fordeveloping proactive measures to ensure adequate watersupply and sustainable urban development in the face ofincreasing demand and limited resources.
Key words: Water Resources, Future Population, Water
Demand, Urban Centers

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Introduction
Water is a precious, non-renewable, non-sustainable natural resource that sustains life on ourplanet Earth. Availability and distribution of both surface and ground water resources varies
widely in different parts of the Earth. Today almost every country is facing paucity of water tomeet their needs for irrigation, industry and domestic consumption specifically in large urban
agglomerations. This vital resource is critical parameter for proper functioning anddevelopment of cities. Water resources (both ground and surface) are depleting day by day
due to various reasons related to distribution patterns, quality issues and other management
issues. Out of many factors that impact water availability and the cadence of water cycle,
mostly through management, distribution and water utilization pattern in urban areas. Water
management also includes storage, supply infrastructure and water treatment are becoming
increasingly important in large and heavily urbanized areas. Apart from being used forDomestic, Industrial and Commercial purposes water also has ecological functions linked withlandscaping, biodiversity, temperature buffering. Water becomes a complex but an important
topic affecting quality of life, climate protection, and resource and energy efficiency in urban
areas. Due to the lack of good governance and management and rapid increase in population,
urban water resources have been over exploited in India and 31.16 percent of total Indian
population lives in urban areas (Census 2011) expected to reach 40 percent by 2030 and 50
percent by 2050 (UN survey), with an alarming increase in urban population which would add
further increased pressure on water resources. In last few years, ground water level in India
as a whole and Rajasthan is continuously going down. Many dams of Rajasthan are completely
or is verge of drying. The situations of dams are not good as their dependability is decreasing
on account of siltation, low run off from the catchment etc. Major cities like Jaipur are facing
problem of drinking water. In last few years population of Jaipur city has increased sharply,
leading to shortage of drinking water especially in drought years.
Historical Review
Jaipur city with about 4 million populations is facing problems of drinking water supply. Initially
Jaipur city was designed for 1, 50,000 people over an area of 1658 acres (6.7 km2). Source ofwater was mainly ground water as open wells, baori etc. During early 1940’s walled city
become congested and Jaipur expended beyond walled city in properly planned manner under
the guidance of Sawai Man Singh II in the 05 colonies namely C-scheme, Adarsh Nagar,
Banipark, New colony and Fateh Tibba. After 1940’s Jaipur was developed as center of tradeand industries like National Ball Bearing Company (NBC), Rajasthan electric Industries (1959)
etc. During 1940’s population of Jaipur has started increasing rapidly specially in 1947 becauseof large number of immigrations from Pakistan and declaration of capital of Rajasthan state(1949). On account of this rapid population increase original, symmetry and design arecompromised to settle this additional population. To meet the immediate need of these people
city planning and infrastructure for amenities and facilities were neglected. As a result, Jaipur
started expending in unplanned manner.
Jaipur city, like other urban agglomerations, is also facing crisis of drinking watersupply. This crisis of acute water scarcity is giving a huge impact on lives and livelihood of
millions of residents (Chari, 2019). With population growth beyond control, the condition will
be worst in coming years as demand for water will increase with the time and going to impact
lives of hundreds of millions population due to severe water scarcity. As per (MOHUA, 2019)
255 districts or 756 ULBs in the country are severely water stressed. Almost 17 percent of
notified towns and cities in the country are facing extreme scarcity of water, among them Jaipur
is one of the most affected one besides Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Delhi, Puducherry, Chennai,
Mumbai and Amravati. Rajasthan with a geographical area of 342,239 square kilometers and100uncertain, erratic rainfall pattern it is among the driest state of India. The state is comprised ofThar Desert and Aravalli Mountain ranges which are specially facing shortage of water. Stateis divided into 236 blocks (Central Ground Water Board), out of which 204 blocks are in darkzone, 26 districts out of 33 districts are in drought like situation. 140 blocks are over exploited,
50 blocks are in critical stage and 14 blocks in semi critical stage.
Present Scenario
Infect, the water supply scheme of historic city of Jaipur was centuries old, which was initially,taken care by open local wells and later in 1918 the increasing population was served throughlarge diameter open wells with tap water at common points. In 1952 Ramgarh dam was usedas key surface source supplying 7 MLD water which was further augmented to 27 MLD in
sixties. Same time drilling of new tube wells came into existence as surface water was notenough. With urban population increasing and expansion of concrete jungles, new colonies
and residential complexes mushroomed the city and the ground water started depleting.
Looking to key challenge in water supply Rajasthan state government initiated in 2009 a very
costly arrangement of bringing and supplying drinking water from distant source Bisalpur dam
which was almost 120 kms away from Jaipur. Bisalpur dam supply to Jaipur city was reduced
to 307 MLD before August 2019, which was 450 MLD in 2018 and 540 MLD in 2017 and thedam is used to supply water to half of Jaipur population. This reduction in supply was mainly
due to low rainfall in these years but in 2021 despite better rainfall (above average) dam could
be filled almost half of its capacity and water supply is reduced to the level of 422 MLD per day
against the requirement of 540 MLD. The demand supply deficit is almost 125 MLD which isfurther aggravating the vulnerability. The monitoring and regulation of extraction of groundwater through almost 20,000 private tube wells and 2000 tube wells managed through Public
Health Engineering Department is almost difficult. Currently (March 2022) contribution of tube
wells is only 6.55 MLD. With increasing population and urbanization there has been inundatingtask of supplying water to 4 million urban population of Jaipur. The problem of water is further
aggravated by large number of floating population due to high inflow of tourists and students
in the specific times/ seasons.
At this point of time Jaipur has 40 million populations which would increase with thetime. As per the minimum criteria of water supply (135 liters per day per head), total waterrequirements of Jaipur city come to around 541 million liters per day. This requirement does
not include industrial and other requirements. Jaipur started facing the crunch of water scarcity
as it is largely dependent on ground water as a result ground water depleted considerably.
Water table has gone more than 25 meters below in last one decade leading to extreme
deterioration of ground water quality with higher concentration of TDS, fluoride, nitrate andsalinity a common feature across whole Jaipur. By 2019 all the 13 blocks of Jaipur city declared
as dark zones as per survey by central ground water board, which means the recharge is justhalf of the total exploitation. The situation is reached to alarming level in 2018 when averagewater supplied was just 15 minutes in most of the area with very low pressure. In other areas
the water supply was just once in 2 days or once in three days. The situation has been criticalin last 20 years.
POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND PROJECTED WATER DEMANDS
Population Projection: Human being involved under condition of high mortality due toaccident, infection, illness, and war therefore the relatively high fertility rate is essential for
species survival In Spite of the relatively high fertility rates it took all the time for evolution of
mankind to the middle of 19 th century for the global population to reach 1 billion. The 20 th
century with the unpredicted rapid improvement in health care technologies and access to101

health care all over the world as a result there is steep fall in mortality and steep increase inimmortality. The population released these changes and took steps to reduce the fertility but
decline in fertility is not so steep as a result the global population has under the fourth foundincrease in a hundred year and has reached 6 billion. Population refers to human aggregate
to define space now the signal outstanding fact about the population is the rapidity of its growthin the past 200 years. A rapid accelerated expansion in the population can be seen since 1750.
According to the World health organization (WHO) human beings are born every second thenet increment works out at 250 per minute 15,000 per hour 360,000 per day and nearly 2.52
million per week. The human population has two fundamental characteristics that reduce theuncertainty about how they will develop in the future. Now the first fundamental characteristics
are that a sustainable overlap exists between the current population and the future population.
Secondly, the fundamental aspect of the human condition is that we grow alter by one year
and to eventually die these two facts constrain possible future development in a populationequivalent in other fields. Methods involved in population projection take advantage of boththese points. Population projection can be defined as a computation procedure to calculate
population size and structure at one time from population size and structure at another time
together with a specification of how changes take place during the interim period. Now it canbe distinguished from forecast as it can be defined as projection based or assumption that areprotective and considered to yield to most probable estimates of the development in the future.
It deals with computation of future projections size and characteristics that attempt to peek into
future population scenarios by using the assumptions and probability in future projections as
merely an exercise for protecting the fate of the current population under specified assumptionsof fertility, mortality, and migration. Protecting the causes of human fertility and mortality is noteasy especially when looking beyond much further in time. At the country level different
population projections are meant by the government, national and international agencies fromtime to time adding to it. World Bank united nation population division United Nation population
front are international agencies who map projection for the world and also for the individual
countries.
Population of Jaipur city is increasing with rapid rates since beginning as it is a capital
town and a premium tourist destination. Jaipur city being part of the semi-arid zone of thecountry, is the capital of Rajasthan state, has a population of 3.1 million as per 2011 census.
Population of Jaipur City is estimated to reach almost 3.5 million in 2020. The city has been
included in the Smart City Program and is expected to undergo massive urban restructuring.
Population projections show that after independence population of Jaipur city increased withmore than 4 percent per annum and approximately 35 percent in a decade till 2001. After thatrate of increase declined slightly and remain between 2 to 3 percent annually and about 31
percent in a decade. Population of Jaipur city has been estimated by various methods andfound that population of Jaipur would convert to 77 million by 2050.
Population Projection
The need for the population projection in India at various level and by different components
like age, sex, rural, urban etc. for the use by the official agencies uniformly both at center andstate level in 1958 on the eve of the formulation of third five-year plan beginning in 1958. It has
been regular by government of India for official purposes through various expert committees
constituted time to time for this purpose.
Population Forecasting
Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the projected population of aparticular city, estimated for the design period. Any underestimated value will make system102

inadequate for the purpose intended; similarly overestimated value will make it costly. Change
in the population of the city over the years occurs, and the system should be designed
considering of the population at the end of the design period.
These are the various Methods by which we can calculate Population Projection
1. Arithmetic Increase Method
2. Geometric Increase Method
3. Incremental Increase Method
4. Logistic Curve Method
5. Decrease Rate of Growth Method
6. Simple Graphic Method
7. Comparative Study Graphical Method
The present and past population record for the city can be obtained from the census
population records. After collecting these population figures, the population at the end ofdesign period is predicted using various methods as suitable for that city considering the
growth pattern followed by the city.
Arithmetical Increase Method: This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable
development. If it is used for small, average, or comparatively new cities, it will give low result
than actual value. In this method the average increase in population per decade is calculated
from the past census reports. This increase is added to the present population to find out the
population of the next decade. Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at constantrate.
Hence, dP/dt = Ci.e., rate of change of population with respect to time isconstant. Therefore, Population after n th decade will be
Pn= P 0 + n x
Where,
Pn is the population after n decade and
P0 is present population.
X = Average of population increase
For this study we considered arithmetic Increase method of population forecasting because
Jaipur is already developed city and the rate of change of population of Jaipur city is constant.
Geometrical Increase Method (OR Geometrical Progression Method): In this method thepercentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant.
Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in population. Since thismethod gives higher values and hence should be applied for a new industrial town at the
beginning of development for only few decades. The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’
can be estimated as:
Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n
Where,
IG = geometric mean
P = Present population
N = no. of decades.
Geometric Increase Method of population Forecasting is used for rapidly growing city.
Incremental Increase Method: This method is modification of arithmetical increase method
and it is suitable for an average size town under normal condition where the growth rate isfound to be in increasing order. While adopting this method the increase in increment is103

considered for calculating future population. The incremental increase is determined for each
decade from the past population and the average value is added to the present population
along with the average rate of increase. Hence, population after nth decade isPn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Where,
Pn = Population after nth decade
X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase
Logistic Curve Method: This method is used when the growth rate of population due to births,
deaths and migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any
extraordinary changes like epidemic, war, earth quake or any natural disaster etc. thepopulation follow the growth curve characteristics of living things within limited space andeconomic opportunity. If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the curve so
obtained under normal condition is look like S-shaped curve and is known as logistic curve.
Decreasing Rate of Growth Method
The method is applied to a city that owns a limiting saturation population. In this type, the rateof growth is a function of its population deficit. That means,
dP/dt = Kd(S-P)
Where,
P is the population,
S is the saturation population
Kd is the constant.
Simple Graphical Method: In this method, the populations of last few decades are correctly
plotted to a suitable scale on graph. The population curve is smoothly extended for getting
future population. This extension should be done carefully and it requires proper experienceand judgment. The best way of applying this method is to extend the curve by comparing withpopulation curve of some other similar cities having the similar growth condition.
Comparative Study Graphical Method: In this method the census populations of cities
already developed under similar conditions are plotted. The curve of past population of the city
under consideration is plotted on the same graph. The curve is extended carefully bycomparing with the population curve of some similar cities having the similar condition of
growth. The advantage of this method is that the future population can be predicted from thepresent population even in the absent of some of the past census report. Source: United Nation
World Population Prospects and using Arithmetic Increase Method of Population forecasting.
Jaipur has Centralized Raw Water Treatment System and Decentralized pump stations forwater supply scheme. At this moment Jaipur city is getting 440 MLD water against demand of
600 MLD from Bisalpur reservoir. This 600 MLD defecate is being managed with same
hundreds tube wells which are either drying or losing their daily discharge. Therefore,
dependability on surface water is increasing with the time.

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Table 01: Daily Projected Water Demand
Year
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051

Historical and Projected Population
3070004160006440001029000
1540000
2344000
3074000
4008000
5053000
62400097702524

Projected Water Demand (Million liters)
41.45
56.16
86.94
138.92207.90316.44414.99541.08682.16842.401039.84

Figure 01: Population Projection of Jaipur City (1951-2051)
770252462400095053000

4008000

2051

2041

2031

Population

2021

30740002011

2344000
2001

1540000

1029000
1981

1991

6440004160001961

1971

3070001951

Population

Population Forecast
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0

Year

842.4

682.16541.08

2051

2041

2031

2021

207.9
1991

414.99138.92
1981

2011

86.94
1971

316.44

56.16
1961

Water Demand

2001

41.45

1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

1951

Water(million liter)

Water Demand1039.84

Figure 02: Daily Water Demand (Million Liters)

Year

Projections shows that water demand is going to double in next 30 years which is 541
million liters per day and expected to become 1040 million liters per day by 2051. Looking to
the present capacity of water supply by Bisalpur dam (422 million liters/day), which is notenough to meet the present demands. Government of Rajasthan is searching for additionalsource of surface water, which can be brought to Jaipur to meet the demand of increasing
population. No single solution for supply of domestic water to Jaipur city is workable.
Authorities has to prepare comprehensive plan for judicious utilization of available resources,
recycling of water for gardens, parks, careful assessment of ground and surface water105

available surrounding to Jaipur city, Inter basin transfer of water from Yamuna, Chambal rivers
through canal. Management and conservation of available water resources is also equallyimportant like harvesting of storm water, recycling of water at least for parks and gardens.
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