METO658E Final Report

Takemasa Miyoshi

Classical Methods Tour of Advanced Data Assimilation
using Lorenz ‘96 Model
Final Report for
METO658E, Spring-2004

Takemasa Miyoshi
5/7/2004
Department of Meteorology
University of Maryland, College Park

Abstract
Using Lorenz96 model with 40 variables, classical methods of advanced data assimilation
are explained, implemented and examined. The classical methods include full Kalman filter (KF),
extended Kalman filter (EKF), full Kalman smoother (KS), its iterative versions, and sawtoothalgorithms (Johnston and Kurishnamurthy 2001). A brief explanation of the theoreticalbackground of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also provided. The methods are tested under theperfect model assumption, and it is shown that KS clearly outperforms KF as expected thanks to
the use of the future information. In addition, it is shown that iterative KF works more stably andoutperforms KF especially in less dense observations both temporally and spatially. Furthermore,model errors are considered in a very simple way. It is shown that the effect of model errors was
significantly reduced by increasing the variance inflation parameter.

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Table of Contents
1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................3
2 Theory ........................................................................................................................4
2.1 Kalman Filter ......................................................................................................4
2.2 Kalman Smoother................................................................................................6
2.3 Iterative Methods ................................................................................................8
2.4 Sawtooth Methods (Johnston and Krishnamurthy 2001)...................................9

3 Numerical Experiments...........................................................................................10
3.1 Model description ..............................................................................................10
3.2 Design of experiments .......................................................................................10
3.3 Results ............................................................................................................... 11
3.3.1 Various methods in perfect model ................................................................11
3.3.2 Introduction of model errors........................................................................ 14

4 Summary and Future plan ......................................................................................15
4.1 Main findings.....................................................................................................15
4.2 Future plans ......................................................................................................16

Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................16
Appendix .....................................................................................................................16
A. Derivation of eq. (2.1.9).......................................................................................16

References ...................................................................................................................17-2-

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1 Introduction
It is important to find the best estimate of the atmospheric and oceanic states using all
available information. In numerical weather prediction (NWP), for example, the better initialstate provides the more accurate forecast. For climate studies, more accurate estimation of theatmospheric and oceanic states in past years, i.e. more accurate reanalysis products, provides
important fundamental information. Data assimilation systems are designed to provide the mostprobable estimation of atmospheric and oceanic states, when observation data and a time
evolving model are given. Thus, it is important to develop better data assimilation systems inearth sciences for daily NWP as well as climate studies.
The main difficulties in practical data assimilation on atmospheric and oceanic models
exist in their high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and imperfectness. In general, the models used in
atmospheric and oceanic sciences have millions of dimensionality, which makes it extremely
difficult or almost impossible to implement truly optimal data assimilation system. Thus, some
simplified methods such as successive correction method and optimal interpolation (OI) havebeen used for long in the operational NWP. These simplified methods assume constant second
order statistics of forecast error, which is actually evolving in time. Recently, the growth ofcomputational capability makes it possible to implement so-called advanced data assimilation
methods including four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation, which considers time
evolution of the error covariance matrix implicitly. Even in this stage, however, the otherdifficulties, the model nonlinearity and imperfectness, are not considered thoroughly.
Away from the difficulties, Kalman (1960) proposed an optimal data assimilation algorithm
known as Kalman filter (KF), which has been used widely in control systems including
satellite-tracking calculations. Basically, if a time evolution model and observation data are given,
KF solves the optimal estimation in terms of the second order statistics which of course evolves
in time. It is known that in linear systems, KF and 4DVAR are equivalent (see for example,
Bouttier and Courtier 1999). In large dimensional systems, KF is too expensive to implement, but
Evensen (1994) proposed an efficient way to implement KF algorithms using ensemble
forecasting, which is known as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and various implementations of
EnKF have been proposed so far (Tippet et al. 2003). Thus, it is a current issue to implement KF
using computationally effective methods in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, which is why thefull KF is cited as a classical method in the present paper. In nonlinear generalization, extended
Kalman filter (EKF) is a general extension of the classical KF using tangent linear
approximations, whereas EnKF does not linearize the model and have shown some advantages innonlinear systems (Evensen 1994).
Smoothing problem is also an important issue in data assimilation. Filtering problem is atime forwarding process and only past information is used, whereas smoothing problem includes
time backwarding processes and future information is also included. Because of the additional
future information, smoothers can provide better estimation than filters. Even in nonlinear
systems that forget past information in some finite time scales, smoother significantly
outperforms filters because more amount of useful information is included from future. In NWP,
smoothing problem seems useless because the latest data are assimilated to produce the latest
analysis, that is, future observation is not available. However, if smoothers can create better
estimation compared to filtering solutions, smoothers could be a better choice in reanalysis of-3-

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Takemasa Miyoshi

past years, where future observations are also available. In this sense, smoothing problem
deserves to be considered in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. As a smoother, Kalman smoother(KS) is a well-known algorithm that uses KF in time forwarding and a similar algorithm in time
backwarding. Extended Kalman smoother (EKS) is a nonlinear generalization of KS just like
EKF is that of KF. At this point, since EKS provides both time forwarding (i.e. EKF) andbackwarding algorithms, it is possible that these time forwarding and backwarding processes arerepeated iteratively, which is known as iterative EKS (IEKS). It is said that IEKS gives better
solution than simple EKF or EKS especially in nonlinear cases. In addition, there is anotherapproach known as sawtooth IEKS (SIEKS) based on alternating expectation conditional
maximization (AECM) formalism, whereas IEKS is based on expectation-maximization (EM)formalism. As EKS and EKF is a simplified version of IEKS, SIEKS has its simplified versions:sawtooth EKS (SEKS) and sawtooth EKF (SEKF), which give better estimations in someparticular cases (Johnston and Kurishnamurthy 2001).
As a classical methods tour in the present paper, we forget about the problem of highdimensionality. As mentioned above, it is impossible to implement classical methods inhigh-dimensional systems. Using a low-dimensional system known as Lorenz 1996 model (L96,
Lorenz 1996, 1998), classical methods of advanced data assimilation are introduced,
implemented, and examined. The classical methods include full KF which is described later, EKF,
full KS, an iterative method, and a sawtooth method. The system simulates atmospheric-likechaotic dynamics in one spatial dimensionality. In addition to the perfect model situation,
constant and temporally varying biases are considered in a simple way. In realistic cases, a modelcannot be perfect, and it is important to consider model errors. In the present paper, model errors
are not treated comprehensively, but a simple treatment has shown to stabilize KF, which is
described in section 3.

2 Theory
2.1 Kalman Filter
KF algorithms consist of two parts: time evolution and innovation. In a linear model M ,x = Mx ia−1 and Pi f = MPia−1M T + Q are time evolution equations, where x , P , and Q
denote state vector (model variables), error covariance matrices, and a model error covariancematrix, respectively. The upper subscripts mean analyses (a) and forecasts (f), and the lower
subscript denotes time steps. Innovation equations are given as x ia = x if + K i (y io − Hx if ) andfi

Pia = [I − K i H ]Pi f , where K i = Pi f H T [HPi f H T + R ] −1 is a Kalman gain matrix, which gives anoptimal solution of this algorithm (for mathematical proof of the optimality of KF, see forexample, Jazwinski 1970). Here H denotes linear observation operator defined as a mappingfrom model variables to observation data. For a nonlinear extension, tangent linear approximation
is assumed by expanding the nonlinear model M as M (x 0 + δx) = Mx 0 + M x 0 δx + O(δx 2 ) ,where M x 0 =∂M
is the Jacobian of the model M called a tangent linear model. Thus, the∂x x 0following five equations compose EKF algorithm:-4-

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Takemasa Miyoshi

x if = Mx ia−1

(2.1.1)

Pi f = M x a Pia−1M x a
i −1

T

i −1

+Q

(2.1.2)K i = Pi f H T [HPi f H T + R ] −1

(2.1.3)x ia = x if + K i (y io − Hx if )(2.1.4)

Pia = [I − K i H ]Pi f(2.1.5)For an effective implementation of this algorithm, taking square root of analysis errorTcovariance matrix in eq.(2.1.2) as Pia−1 = E ia−1E ia−1 , we get
T

Pi f = M x a E ia−1E ia−1 M x a
i −1

i −1

T

(

+ Q = M x a E ia−1 M x a E ia−1
i −1

i −1

) +Q
T

(2.1.6)In this form, the adjoint model is not needed. Furthermore, this formulation enables to use
nonlinear model instead of tangent linear model. This is just a practical treatment, but this has anadvantage in the same way as EnKF, and this is called full KF in the present paper. Because theanalysis error covariance matrix is positive definite, the real square root exists. Each column ofthe square root matrix E ia−1 is considered as a perturbation around x ia−1 , which is an input to themodel. Therefore, if nonlinear model is used in the eq.(2.1.6),(

M x a E i −1 = M x a δx1i −1 L δx iN−1
i −1

i −1

)

⎛ M (x ia−1 + εδx1i −1 ) − M (x ia−1 )M (x ia−1 + εδx iN−1 ) − M (x ia−1 ) ⎞
⎟
≅ ⎜⎜
L
⎟
ε
ε
⎝
⎠

(2.1.7)should be computed, where ε is a small number so that tangent linear approximation is valid.
Note that eq.(2.1.7) is equivalent to ensemble forecasts.
It is helpful to mention that E can be a reduced matrix, that is, the rank of the matrix ismuch less than its full dimension. This is usually the case in atmospheric dynamical systems evenin the simple L96 system. The eigenvalue decomposition of real symmetric matrix gives
P a = SDS T , where D is a diagonal matrix whose values are real non-negative eivenvalues, andS is composed of corresponding eigenvectors which are orthogonal to each other. Usually P
shows degeneracy, that is, there are only limited number of positive eivenvalues and remaining
are 0. Thus, there exist only limited number of eigenvectors, and the effective dimension of thesquare root matrix E is much smaller than the full matrix, which can reduce the number ofmodel integrations. Note that EnKF is based on this sort of discussion, where E consists ofensemble perturbations. The degeneracy of P implies that a relatively small number ofensemble members can reproduce P fairly well. If the effective number of perturbations are
significantly smaller than the number of observations, eq.(2.1.3) to calculate Kalman Gain matrix
can be significantly simplified as follows:

K = PH T [HPH T + R ] −1 = E[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 (HE) T R −1
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(2.1.9)

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where P = EE T , and subscripts are omitted. Eq.(2.1.9) is simpler because p × p matrix
inversion is converted to m × m matrix inversion, where p and m denote number ofobservations and effective perturbations (i.e. ensemble members), respectively. The square root of
forecast error covariance matrix in eq.(2.1.9) (denoting E if ) is straightforward because ofeq.(2.1.6), that is, E if = ME ia−1 . Thus, except eq.(2.1.5) for innovating P , we do not need tocompute covariance matrices explicitly, but we just compute ensemble perturbations and theirmodel integrations. The covariance information is implicitly included by eqs.(2.1.6) and (2.1.9).
For the complete EnKF formalism, we need to form an ensemble update algorithm to realizeeq.(2.1.5) implicitly, which is beyond the scope of the present paper. The derivation of eq.(2.1.9)
is shown in appendix A.
In the case that observation is given as a nonlinear function of model variables, i.e.
observation operator H is nonlinear mapping, it is generally impossible to solve eqs.(2.1.3) and(2.1.5). Usually this problem is treated by linearizing H under the tangent linear assumption.
However, by virtue of the square root formulation of covariance matrices, this problem can besolved practically. Eq.(2.1.9) shows, for example, that the ensemble perturbations of E if areprojected to observation space by H , which can be nonlinear mapping just in the same way as
the model M in eq.(2.1.6) could be nonlinear.
In the above discussion, the theory of KF is completed. In practical, however, the error
covariance matrix P is always underestimated, and the filter is eventually getting unstable.
Thus, introduction of the model error Q or variance inflation is necessary for stable filtering.
The theoretical explanation for the model error Q can partially attribute to the model
nonlinearity under the perfect model assumption. It is a common technique to add random noise
as Q in eq. (2.1.2). Alternatively, it is also a common technique to multiply a slightly larger
number than 1 to the error covariance matrix at the end of the process. Namely, after the processof eq.(2.1.5),~
P a = P a × (1 + δ )(2.1.10)is performed so that the underestimated covariance matrix is simply enlarged by a factor 1 + δ ,where δ is a small number called variance inflation parameter. In the present paper, the model
error covariance Q is ignored, and the variance inflation is considered. The variance inflation
factor is an adjustable parameter in the algorithm and plays an important role in the practicalfiltering performance.

2.2 Kalman SmootherIn smoother, time forwarding process is exactly the same as KF. The time backwarding
process is realized by the following algorithm proposed by Rauch-Tung-Striebel (1965) known as
RTS algorithm:-6-

METO658E Final Report

Takemasa MiyoshiTTG i = Pia M Ti (Pi +f 1 ) −1 = E ia E ia M Ti (Pi +f 1 ) −1 = E ia ( M i E ia ) T (Pi +f 1 ) −1 = E ia E if+1 (Pi +f 1 ) −1

(2.2.1)x is = x ia + G i (x is+1 − x if+1 )(2.2.2)

P = P + G i (P
s
i

a
i

s
i +1

− P )Gfi +1

Ti(2.2.3)where the subscript s denotes smoothing solutions, and the square roots ( Pia = E ia E ia

T

and

f T
i +1

Pi +f 1 = E if+1E ) simplify eq.(2.2.1) in a similar way as in eq.(2.1.6) of the KF algorithm, thanks
to which no further model integration is necessary. However, eq.(2.2.1) requires an n × n matrix
inversion, where n denotes the dimension of model variables, which makes it extremely
expensive or almost impossible to compute in high-dimensional systems. Eq.(2.2.1) can befurther simplified as
T

T

T

T

T

E ia E if+1 (Pi +f 1 ) −1 = E ia E if+1 (E if+1E if+1 ) −1 = E ia E if+1 (E if+1 ) −1 E if+1

−1

= E ia E if+1

−1

(2.2.4)but even in the case that E if+1 is a square matrix, E if+1 is not symmetric in usual, thus it is noteasy to compute the inverse. In addition, all the covariance matrices or ensemble members need
to be stored through the smoothing steps, which requires large amount of memory. Furthermore,eq(2.2.3) has a more complicated form compared to eq.(2.1.5), which also makes it difficult toform an ensemble formalization. Thus, in a practical point of view, it is not easy to implement
this algorithm in realistic atmospheric and oceanic systems.
Supposing far away from high-dimensionality, now that we have time forwarding andbackwarding algorithms, we can use the future information to estimate the present state. This
process is schematically shown in fig. 2.1. x1s is a smoothing solution at the initial time where
all observations through the future time N is assimilated in the filtering processes. Thus, toobtain an optimal estimate at the initial time, filters use all the past information, whereassmoothers use additional N-step future information. To initiate the smoother, x sN = x aN , PNs = PNa
is used. Fig. 2.2 shows schematic of filter and smoother solutions. Generally, RMSE(xsi) <RMSE(xai) and RMSE(xsi) < RMSE(xsi+1) are satisfied, where RMSE stands for root mean squareerror.

x1a

x1s

x a2

x 3a

…

x aN −1

x aN

x 2f

x 3f

x 4f

…

x Nf

x sN −1

x sN

x 2s

Filtering Solutions

Smoother Solutions

Figure 2.1. Schematic of smoothing processes. The upper subscripts denotefilter solutions (a), forecast (f), and smoother solutions (s), respectively,
and the lower subscripts denote time steps, where N is smoothing time
window.
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O

R
M
S
E

O

O

O

O

xf4

xf1

xf2

xf3

xa0

xa1

xa2

xa3

xs0

xs1

xs2

xs3

xa4 = xs4

TIME
Figure 2.2. Schematic of Kalman filter and smoother solutions. The upper
subscripts denote filter solutions (a), forecast (f), and smoother solutions (s),respectively, and O denotes observation. This shows the case of N=4, where
N is smoothing time window.

2.3 Iterative Methods

Using the algorithms described above, time forwarding and backwarding can be used
iteratively as shown in fig. 2.3, which shows schematic of iterative Kalman smoother (IKS). If
the iteration is performed using only past and present observations, the same algorithm becomes
iterative Kalman filter (IKF), which is shown in fig 2.4 where the smoothing time window is 1.
Note that it is not clear if the iterative solution is better than the non-iterative solution.
Theoretically, KF itself is optimal, and it cannot be better using the same amount of information,
on condition that the model is linear and perfect, and the error statistics is Gaussian. Model
nonlinearity introduces non-optimality of KF, and it is expected that iterative processes reduce theeffect of nonlinearity and provide better solution, that is, iterative KF is expected to outperform
KF when observation is sparse in time and space.
xa1i

xa1i+N

xs1i

xs1i+N= xa1i+N

xa2i= xs1i

xa2i+N

xs2i

xs2i+N= xa2i+N

i

i+N

TIME

Figure 2.3. Schematic of iterative Kalman smoother (IKS). The upper
subscripts denote filter solutions (a) and smoother solutions (s), and their
iteration numbers. N is smoothing time window.
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O

xfi
xai-1

xa2i :iterative solution
xai = xsi

xsi-1

Figure 2.4. Schematic of Iterative Kalman Filter (IKF) with smoothing time
window 1. Iterative solution is denoted as upper subscript a2. It is notclear if iterative solution is better than the first filter solution.

2.4 Sawtooth Methods (Johnston and Krishnamurthy 2001)

Extended Kalman filter is based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, whereas
sawtooth extended Kalman filter is based on alternating expectation conditional maximization(AECM) algorithm.
Smoother gain matrix G can be computed without future observation. Expecting thestructure of error vector x ia+1 − x if+1 and error covariance difference Pia+1 − Pi +f 1 are similar tof
x if+1 − Mx if and Pi +1− MPi f M T respectively, we can compute one step smoothing processusing one step forecast even if future observation is not available. This process uses only pastobservations, so this is filtering problem called a sawtooth Kalman filter (SKF). Fig. 2.5 shows
schematic of SKF. In the same way, sawtooth Kalman smoothers (SKS) can be formed and their
iterative methods are also straightforward.

Mxfi
O
xfi

xfi+1

xai
x si

Figure 2.5. Schematic of sawtooth Kalman filter (SKF).

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3 Numerical Experiments
3.1 Model description

The L96 model is defined bydxi= xi −1 ( xi +1 − xi − 2 ) − xi + F .
dt(3.1.1)

Here, i = 1,L, N x , where the boundary is cyclic, i.e. x −1 = x N x −1 , x0 = x N x , and x N x +1 = x1 .

CORRELATIONThis model behaves chaotically in the case of external forcing F = 8.0 , in which case the time
step of 0.2 non-dimensional units corresponds to about one day in terms of error growth rate offive days (Lorenz 1996). The first term of right hand side simulates “advection”, and this model
can be regarded as the time evolution of an arbitrary one-dimensional quantity on a constantlatitude circle, that is, the subscript i corresponds to longitude. As in Lorenz (1996), I choose
N x = 40 and F = 8.0 . Eq (3.1.1) is solved using Runge-Kutta fourth order scheme withintegration time step 0.01, thus, 5 steps correspond to 6 hours. Lag auto-correlation is shown infig. 3.1.
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1

0

0.5

1
1.5
LAG TIME [DAYS]2

2.5

Figure 3.1. Lag correlation of the Lorenz96 model.

3.2 Design of experiments

Basic design is based on a simple observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs) inassuming true state is known. The true state is created by a long-term integration from anarbitrary chosen initial condition. Observations are simulated by simply adding random noise to
the true state. Here, observation grid and model grid are the same; observation operator H issimply an identity mapping or reducing observation points. The initial condition for data
assimilation can be any arbitrary state, and a long-term mean state is chosen in the present
experiment. The initial analysis error covariance matrix can also be any arbitrary real symmetricmatrix as long as it is not too small and usually diagonal components are the largest. I chose amatrix whose each row/column is Gaussian shape with fairly large amplitude. The performanceof data assimilation is measured by root mean square error (RMSE). Now that true state is known,- 10 -

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the error is easily computed by subtracting true state from analysis state.
It is important to know how data assimilation works in decreasing number of observation
both spatially and temporally. Thus, the experiment using 40, 20, and 10 observations in every 6,
12, 24, and 48 hours are performed. Every combination of these spatial and temporal densities is
examined. For example, 40 observations in every 6 hours is the densest situation, whereas 10
observations in every 48 hours is the sparsest situation. In this experiment, observation error
standard deviation is set to 1.0. In short, the experiment settings are summarized in table 3.1.
For introducing model errors, a constant bias and temporally varying biases are added totrue time evolution:

x ti +1 = Mx ti + b i
b i = b 0 + b1 sin(ωi )(3.2.1)(3.2.2)where b 0 , b1 , and ω are constant bias, amplitude and frequency of temporally varying bias,
respectively. Using this biased true time evolution, the same experiment described above isperformed.

Table 3.1. Summary of experiment settings.
Initial stateLongtime mean state
Initial state of the true state
From longtime integration∆t = 0.01
Model integration time step
Value of forcing of Lorenz96
F=8.0
Definition of 1 day
0.2 time units (6hr=0.05)# of observation
40 / 20 / 10
Observation error
1.0
Assimilation cycle
Every 6 / 12 / 24 / 48 hours

3.3 Results
3.3.1 Various methods in perfect model

For the criterion of RMSE, the RMSE of forecast with no assimilation (free run, i.e. doing
nothing) is computed. The value is around 5.0. Thus, if the analysis RMSE is less than 5.0, thedata assimilation works better than doing nothing. Because observation error is 1.0, 1.0 can be
another criterion. For example, if every point has observation and analysis RMSE is larger than
1.0, the direct insertion of observation is better than the data assimilation.
The graphical result how KF works is shown in fig. 3.2, where RMSE (upper panel) andthe ratio of RMSE against free run (lower panel) are shown for first 14 days. The left two panels
show in the case of 40 observations, and the right two panels show in the case of 20 observations,both at every 6 hours. In the upper two panels, black circle, white circle, green, yellow, red lines
show RMSE of free run, that of analysis, that of forecast, square root of the mean of diagonal- 11 -

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components of forecast error covariance matrix, and that of analysis error covariance matrix,
respectively. In the lower two panels, the ratio of analysis RMSE against free run is shown inpercent. KF performs very well in both cases, though the initial spin-up period is longer in thecase of 20 observations.
The result of the full KF is shown in table 3.2. Here, the RMSE is averaged over 365 days
where the first 120 steps are eliminated in considering the initial spin-up of the filter. In 40
observations, i.e. observing at every point, the data assimilation works well even in decreasing
temporal density of observation to every 48 hours, though the filter is rather unstable in the
choice of variance inflation parameter. By decreasing half of the observation, more than 24 hours
interval of observation makes KF unstable. In 10 observations, KF is stable only in observing
every 6 hours, but the performance is worse than free run, i.e. the data assimilation provides nouseful information at all.
The result using EKF is shown in table 3.3 in the same way as table 3.2. Here, the only
difference from the previous experiment exists in using tangent linear model instead of nonlinear
model in computing eq. (2.1.6). RMSEs are comparable to full KF, although it is expected thatthe full KF outperforms EKF as temporal density of observation decreases, when model
nonlinearity becomes important. In this case, however, the result shows EKF slightly outperforms
full KF in 40 observations every 48 hours. Furthermore, EKF is more stable than the previous full
KF in the choice of variance inflation parameter. This tendency is clear especially in the case ofless observation densities such as 40 observations at every 48 hours.
KS uses future information and is expected to provide better solution than KF. The RMSEs
of KF and KS are shown in table 3.3. Here, the RMSE is averaged over 180 days where the first
150 steps are excluded because of the initial spin-up. In this experiment, number of observation is
40 or 20 at every 6 hours. LEKF as well as KF and KS is also shown as an example of EnKF,
where LEKF stands for Local Ensemble Kalman Filter (Ott et al. 2004). The detail of LEKF is
not explained in considering the scope of the present paper. In the case of 40 observations withvariance inflation factor of 0.05, RMSE of 0.11 seems lower limit even if smoothing time
window is increased beyond 3. However, if the variance inflation parameter is decreased to 0.01,
the assimilation skills are getting better in increasing smoothing time window. Smoothing time
window decides how many future data are used in smoother; the longer the time window is, themore observations are used, and the better the performance is expected. Thus, variance inflation
δ = 0.05 makes the error covariance overestimated especially in N > 1 where substantial
decrease of RMSE can be seen in δ = 0.01 . In the case of 20 observations, the optimal varianceinflation parameter is chosen in each case. The result shows surprisingly better analysis bysmoothers compared to filters even in decreasing observations by half.
Analysis RMSE of iterative full KF is shown in table 3.5 in the same way as table 3.2(365-day average). The algorithm is exactly the same as what figure 2.4 shows, that is, one stepsmoothing process is performed using only past information. Here, the iteration is only once. In
more frequent observation, there is no advantage can be seen. However, there are significant
advantages in less dense observations, and the filter is surprisingly much more stable whichshould be stressed here. For example, in the case of 40 observations at every 48 hours, the RMSE
is about 0.5, that was 0.7 in KF. In the case of 20 observations, KF got unstable when observing
less than every 24 hours, where iterative KF shows its stability. Furthermore, the case of 20- 12 -

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observations at every 24 hours shows fairly good data assimilation performance. Even in 10
observations, the filter is stable, and data assimilation works better than doing nothing. As
mentioned above, the stability of filter depends on the choice of variance inflation parameter, but
this method is much more stable in the choice, too.
Sawtooth methods do not work well in this case. Even in observing 40 points every 6 hours,
SEKF shows more than 3 of RMSE, where KF showed 0.2. There is no advantage using sawtoothmethods in this particular problem.

Figure 3.2. RMSE (upper two panels) and ratio of RMSE of analysis against free run(lower two panels) in the case of 40 observations (left two panels) and 20
observations (right two panels) both at every 6 hours. In upper two panels, black
circle, white circle, green, yellow, red show RMSE of free run, that of analysis, thatof forecast, square root of trace of forecast error covariance matrix, and that ofanalysis error covariance matrix, respectively. In lower two panels, the ratio of
analysis RMSE against free run is shown in percent.

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Table 3.2. Analysis RMSE of full KF (365-day average after convergence). δ denotes
variance inflation parameter, and “–“ means unstable filter.
Obs# = 40
Obs# = 20
Obs# = 10
6 hours
0.368 ( δ = 0.1 )5.40 ( δ = 0.3 )0.192 ( δ = 0.05 )12 hours
0.712 ( δ = 0.5 )0.298 ( δ = 0.2 )24 hours
0.481 ( δ = 0.75 )48 hours
0.763 ( δ = 2.0 )Table 3.3. Analysis RMSE of EKF. Notations are the same as table 3.2.
Obs# = 40
Obs# = 20
Obs# = 10
6 hours0.211 ( δ = 0.05 )0.356 ( δ = 0.1 )4.85 ( δ = 0.5 )12 hours
0.765 ( δ = 0.5 )0.296 ( δ = 0.2 )24 hours
0.471 ( δ = 0.75 )48 hours
0.699 ( δ = 1.5 )Table 3.4. Analysis RMSE of full KF, KS, and LEKF. For smoothers, the smoothing time
window (N) is changed from 1 to 6.
RMSE (obs#=40)
RMSE (obs#=20)
Assimilation cycle
RMSE (obs#=40)
δ = 0.05
δ = 0.01
Optimal choice
Filtering
0.193
0.358 ( δ = 0.1 )Smoothing (N=1)
0.138
0.124
0.198 ( δ = 0.04 )Smoothing (N=2)
0.124
0.08950.149 ( δ = 0.02 )Smoothing (N=3)
0.113
0.07280.102 ( δ = 0.005 )Smoothing (N=4)
0.110
0.06360.0864 ( δ = 0.005 )Smoothing (N=5)
0.111
0.05960.0790 ( δ = 0.005 )Smoothing (N=6)
0.111
0.05080.0707 ( δ = 0.005 )
LEKF
0.246
0.377
Table 3.5. Analysis RMSE of iterative KF. Notations are the same as table 3.2.
Obs# = 40
Obs# = 20
Obs# = 10
6 hours0.400 ( δ = 0.1 )3.67 ( δ = 0.2 )0.201 ( δ = 0.05 )12 hours
0.469 ( δ = 0.1 )3.43 ( δ = 0.4 )0.272 ( δ = 0.05 )24 hours
0.371 ( δ = 0.2 )0.622 ( δ = 0.3 )4.08 ( δ = 0.45 )48 hours
1.88 ( δ = 1.2 )0.491 ( δ = 0.5 )

3.3.2 Introduction of model errors

The way to introduce model errors is given in eqs. (3.2.1) and (3.2.2), where constant bias
and temporally varying biases are considered at the same time. Now, constant bias andtemporally varying biases are introduced separately, that is, b 0 is 0 when b1 has some value,and vice versa. The RMSE is averaged over 90 days where first 150 steps are excluded becauseof the initial spin-up. For comparison, the result of simple OI/3DVAR is shown. As clearly shown,
the simple OI/3DVAR performs very stably in biases. The bias less than 0.2 does not affect at all,- 14 -

METO658E Final Report

Takemasa Miyoshi

whereas KF is affected very much. Note that 0.2 is the size of the analysis error of KF, which is
one fifth of observation error, and it is hard to detect such small biases in realistic situation. KF isvery sensitive to both constant and temporally varying biases. Even the bias of 0.1 makes KF
significantly worse. Furthermore, even if constant bias is completely known and eliminated,
temporally varying bias with amplitude of 0.1 and 3-day cycle makes KF worse significantly.
Thus, in implementing KF in a realistic situation, the bias correction is a very important issue. A
simple treatment of model biases can be done by just increasing variance inflation parameter. The
table 3.6 shows the effect of small model biases can be significantly reduced by increasing
variance inflation parameter that is equivalent to overestimating analysis errors. Thus, theincrease in analysis errors caused by model errors can be treated as overestimation of analysis
errors by large variance inflation parameter. Remember that Q in eq. (2.1.2) introduces model
error statistics in KF algorithms, but Q is a second order statistics and not first order statistics
such as biases, so Q cannot treat the problem of model biases.

Table 3.6. Analysis RMSE of KF in introducing model biases. The bias is defined in eqs.
(3.2.1). The RMSEs are 180-day (720-step) average values, where the first 150 steps
are excluded, where 1 step corresponds to 6 hours.
BIAS
RMSE
−1
KF
KF
KF
Simpleb0b1ω [Days]δ = 0.05
δ = 0 .1
δ = 0 .5
OI / 3DVAR
0
0.18
0.20
0.38
0.65
0
0.1
1
0.22
0.22
0.39
0.66
3
2.99
0.57
0.41
0.65
5
3.37
1.41
0.44
0.66
10
4.55
1.30
0.46
0.66
15
4.11
1.78
0.45
0.66
30
4.17
3.37
0.47
0.65
0.01
0
0.30
0.23
0.38
0.65
0.1
0
3.69
3.08
0.50
0.66
0.2
0
5.35
4.41
0.77
0.67
0.5
0
6.44
5.90
1.61
0.74

4 Summary and Future plan
4.1 Main findings

Full KF, EKF, full KS, iterative KF, sawtooth KF are implemented and compared. The
main findings in this comparison can be summarized as follows:
1. RMSE of full KF using densest observations was 0.2
2. EKF is more stable than full KF
3. Full KS outperforms KF (the best performance shows RMSE ~0.05)
4. Iterative KF outperforms KF in less dense observations both spatially andtemporally
5. Iterative KF is much more stable than full KF
6. Sawtooth KF does not work at all in this particular case- 15 -

METO658E Final Report

Takemasa Miyoshi

Introduction of model errors clarify the following findings:
1. KF is very sensitive to model errors, whereas OI/3DVAR is very stable
2. Even time mean bias is eliminated, temporally varying bias with frequencies morethan 3 days affects very much
3. Increasing variance inflation parameter can reduce the effect of model errors

4.2 Future plans

Tippet et al. (2003) summarized various implementations of ensemble square root Kalmanfilters (EnSRF) that can be applied in realistic atmospheric models, which includes sequential
method, ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter(EAKF). LEKF, which is one of the various implementations of EnSRF, proposed by Ott et al.
(2004) has been already implemented and the result is shown in table 3.4, though the precise
description was omitted in considering the scope of the present paper. In future, beyond theclassical methods, these more realistic methods which can be used in high dimensional systems
can be implemented and compared. As Tippet et al. (2003) mentioned, it is not clear if any
implementation of efficient Kalman filter outperforms other methods. Thus, it is worth
implementing and comparing different implementations of EnKF even in the simple L96 model.
Of course, after the precise investigation using the simple model, it is desired to implement inmore realistic models.
Another direction is on the model errors. In realistic situations, the model cannot be
perfect; the source of model error is abundant. In addition, the estimation of model errors is noteasy, and considering model errors in data assimilation algorithm is very important. Thus, it isimportant to discuss more precisely how to treat model errors. Dee and Da Silva (1998) discussed
data assimilation in the presence of model errors. KF provides important information in real-time
estimation of model errors. In developing EnKF, including such algorithm has much practicalimportance.

Acknowledgement
The author is grateful to Dr. Joaquim Ballabrera who directed the course and gave lots ofuseful suggestions and constructive discussions throughout the course. The author also thanks theclassmates Shu-Chih Yang and John Harlim for many useful discussions in the classes. The
Japanese Government Long-term Fellowship Program supported the author to conduct thegraduate study at the Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park.

Appendix
A. Derivation of eq. (2.1.9)

Using a formulae of the linear algebra:- 16 -

METO658E Final Report

Takemasa Miyoshi[ X 1 + X 12 X 2−1 X 21 ] −1 = X 1−1 − X 1−1 X 12 [ X 2 + X 21 X 1−1 X 12 ] −1 X 21 X 1−1(A.1)

the RHS of eq.(2.1.3) is transformed as follows:
PH T [HPH T + R ] −1 = E(HE) T [HE(HE) T + R ] −1
= E(HE) T [R −1 − R −1 HE[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 (HE) T R −1 ]= E(HE) T R −1 − E(HE) T R −1 HE[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 (HE) T R −1
= E[I − (HE) T R −1 HE[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 ](HE) T R −1

(A.2)

= E[[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] − (HE) T R −1 HE][I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 (HE) T R −1
= E[I + (HE) T R −1 HE] −1 (HE) T R −1

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