July 28, 2009
Japan Institute of International Affairs

The “Global Zero” Campaign to Eliminate Nuclear Weapons
Yukio Satoh, Vice Chairman, Japan Institute of International Affairs“Global Zero” is an international campaign launched in the US to eliminate nuclear weapons,
and its inaugural conference was held in Paris in December 2008.

Another worldconference is to be held in Paris in February 2010, with as many as 250 leaders of theinternational community expected to be in attendance.

I chose to participate in “Global Zero” because I thought a Japanese perspective should bereflected in discussions aimed at achieving “a world without nuclear weapons.”

The catalyst for this was an invitation from an American friend in July of last year; I noticed
that the draft invitation for the inaugural Paris conference listed the UK, Norway and several
other countries as actively supporting the idea of a world without nuclear weapons but did
not include Japan.

Explaining that Japan has firmly held to its Three Non-Nuclear

Principles for many years and that it plays a leading role each year at the UN General
Assembly in the adoption of a resolution calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons, Iasked that the list be revised.

The campaign organizers promptly agreed to do so and eversince Japan has been at the top of the list.

This episode made me realize that Japan’s

nuclear disarmament diplomacy of recent years has not caught the eye of strategists in theUS.

In contrast to today’s world, “a world without nuclear weapons” would be one in which North
Korea and Iran had renounced their nuclear development programs, the non-NPT
signatories Israel, India and Pakistan had relinquished their nuclear arsenals, the countries
recognized as nuclear weapon states under the NPT – the US, Russia, the UK, France andChina – had given up possession of their nuclear weapons, and thereafter no country or
terrorist group would be able to gain access to nuclear weapons.

Of course, such a world

cannot be realized immediately nor are the prospects for its realization very encouraging atthe moment.

Achieving “a world without nuclear weapons” would require an international ordercompletely different from that which we have now.

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Today’s UN, for instance, could nevercreate or maintain such an international order.

Nevertheless, “a world without nuclear weapons” is once again being pursued today as aresult of various changes in crisis levels and issue awareness: there is an increasing
sentiment worldwide in favor of moving away from “mutually assured destruction,” ahazardous strategy that served as the foundation for mutual deterrence between the US andthe Soviet Union during the Cold War era; nuclear proliferation has not halted, as
symbolized by the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran; the US has experienced aheightened sense of crisis over nuclear terrorism since 9/11; the development ofprecision-guided weapons has made it possible to diminish the role of nuclear weapons indeterrence strategy; and the economic burden of maintaining nuclear weapons has grownconsiderably.

The discussions aimed at a world without nuclear weapons have thus gained

momentum as the consequence of a variety of factors, including the view shared by all
countries that a repeat at the NPT Review Conference (held once every five years and due
to meet next year) of the previous conference’s major failure would be unforgivable.

Discussions at “Global Zero” have focused on approaches to nuclear disarmament by theUS, Russia and other nuclear weapon states.

A “Global Zero Commission” comprising a

total of 23 persons – five each from the US and Russia, three each from China and India,
two from Pakistan, one each from the UK, Germany, and France, and former Prime Minister
Yasuo Fukuda and myself from Japan – is endeavoring to create a model case offering aroad map for eliminating all of the nuclear weapons of the nuclear weapon states forsubmission to the world conference next February in Paris.

The Commission held its firstmeeting in July, with its next meeting scheduled for October.

The lineup of participants from the US bears noting, including as it does former US Senator
Chuck Hagel, who serves as Chairman of the overall campaign, Richard Burt, one of thepersons involved in the SALT negotiations under the Reagan administration, Tony Lake,
National Security Advisor during President Clinton’s first term, and Tom Pickering, a veteran
US diplomat.

The discussions at “Global Zero” tend to center on the US and Russia, and it is none tooclear how far the participants from countries such as China and India will join in thediscussions at this venue.

Still, I believe that Japanese participation in this campaign is of great significance in that itenables Japan’s positions and thoughts on the various issues pertaining to nuclear

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disarmament to be presented to the nuclear weapon states.

I think it crucial to express at

this venue Japan’s views on the importance of US expanded deterrence and missile
defense in the nuclear disarmament process and on the issue of a multilateral balance ofnuclear forces, especially among the US, Russia and China.

Hagel is said to be a close friend of President Obama and Lake served as a top foreign
policy advisor to Obama during last year’s presidential campaign, so I think the campaign isalso an effective means of conveying Japan’s outlook to persons close to the Obamaadministration.

From this standpoint, I mentioned at last year’s Paris conference, for instance, that theJapanese are second to none in calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons in light ofHiroshima and Nagasaki, and that the key issues of the moment from Japan’s perspective inadvancing nuclear disarmament are (1) improving the reliability of the US’ extended
deterrence, (2) preventing the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea, and (3)pursuing the peaceful use of nuclear power in a manner completely distinct from nuclear
weapons development.

While there is no question of the importance of the objectives of reducing and eliminating
nuclear weapons, there is room for debate on the process for achieving these objectives,and ensuring Japan’s security during that process is essential.

I think the time has come,therefore, for Japan to begin research on issues pertaining to the US’ extended deterrence
as well as to a multilateral balance of nuclear forces, especially a trilateral balance among
the US, Russia and China, that will inevitably be confronted in the nuclear disarmament
process.

I would like to see government organizations and think tanks undertake research on theseissues, and I think special effort needs to be devoted to fostering young specialists on
nuclear strategic issues both inside and outside the government.

While I myself am not a specialist in nuclear strategy, I have built friendships with Americanand European specialists on strategic issues since my time at the International Institute ofStrategic Studies (IISS) in London in the early 1980s. Hence I think my role from here on isto introduce those of the younger generations to my friends overseas and convey to them
the information received from these friends.

I very much hope that today’s talk on “GlobalZero” will be seen as part of that endeavor.

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