13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Vancouver, B.C., Canada
August 1-6, 2004
Paper No.1299

HOW MUCH FAMILY FINANCIAL SITUATION HAS IMPROVEDEIGHT YEARS AFTER THE KOBE EARTHQUAKEKeiko TAMURA1, Haruo HAYASHI2, Shigeo TATSUKI3, Reo KIMURA4

SUMMARY
This study is based on the analysis of social random sampled surveys conducted in the Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake impacted area every two-year since 1999. 2001 and 2003 surveys were designed as the panel
survey, and 2005 survey will be. The research frame building for the survey study was hypothesized by
the major findings from the grass-root workshops in 1999 Kobe City Assessment, which identified sevencritical factors for the process of life recovery after the event; housing, social ties, land use planning,
physical/mental health, preparedness, economic/financial situation, and relation to government.
In terms of economic/financial situation, the question asked the way of changing the family budget
compared the present situation with the situation before the event. The results of the analysis clarified thesecular change of the situation of the family budget 6 and 8 years after the Earthquake. The major resultsof panel surveys were as follows: ①In 2001, respondents, whose houses suffered fully damage, were still
economically in the bad condition, while in 2003, the degree of housing damage the respondents suffered
was not the major determinant of the situation of family budget any more, especially incomes andexpenses, ②Comparing 2001 with 2003 surveys, in the process of upturn in the family budget, it beganon the basic items of expenses, such as food, housing and utility. After that it went on to selective itemsof expenses, such as clothing, dining out and recreation. The deterioration of living expenses did not haveany obvious patterns.
INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study
Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake that occurred on January 17, 1995 caused an unprecedented catastrophe.
This great earthquake, whose hypocenter was directly below a metropolitan area, caused not only direct
damage to housing and structures in the street, but also caused indirect damage to social systems andorganizations with vast damage to the daily life of inhabitants. The influence of such indirect damage
continued for a considerable time, and even after completion of the recovery of social infrastructures,
1

Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
3
Department of Sociology, Doshisya University
4
Disaster Management Office, Nagoya University2

citizens have been making a lot of effort to recovery their livelihoods. When we examine the restoration
processes in the disaster stricken area, we can grasp the reconstruction processes for social infrastructure,
housing and city planning more easily because there are various indices for physical reconstruction. For
economic reconstruction, there are macro economic indices, such as the economic growth rate. However,there are not enough micro indices detailing the circumstances of citizens. It is because there have beenno adequate studies on the recovery of livelihoods as a whole that covers the circumstances of citizens.
An attempt to examine the process of recovery of citizens living started in the disaster area four years
after the occurrence of the disaster in 1999. It is a social survey that performs fixed-point observation of
the recovery of livelihoods in the disaster area every other year. The result of this "Study on awarenessand the behavior of people after the disaster” obtained from the "Survey on the change of habitation andreality of living after the seismic disaster" in 1999 2) had evolved into the "Survey of life recovery"
performed since 2001. From the surveys of 2001, we added a new survey element "panel" taking
implementation of the continuous social surveys in 2003 and 2005 into consideration.
When we performed a social survey selecting those polled using a statistically correct sampling method,
the result offered valuable data that showed the general trends of the population. In surveys made in 2001
and 2003, both surveys used a stratified two-stage sampling method, randomly selecting 330 points fromthe object area of the survey, then it picked 10 people from a basic registry of residents for each point bymeans of sampling with probability proportional to size. From two surveys which employed statisticallywarranted random sampling, we are going to examine the actual status of the change of "recovery" of theGreat Hanshin Awaji Earthquake victims in 2001, six years from the disaster, and in 2003, eight years
from the disaster.
Objectives of the Study
Our study has two objectives. Firstly, it is to comprehend macroscopic changes to the victims'
circumstances since the disaster from the survey of live recovery performed in 2001 and 2003 in thedisaster area of the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, based on random sampling. Secondly, among panel
respondents who replied to both 2001 and 2003 surveys, we aimed to trace trends of micro-domestic
economy of respondents.
METHOD
Outline of Survey
The data used in this paper are obtained from "The survey of live recovery 2001 and 2003" implemented
by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University. The objective of the survey was to"perform continuous fixed point observations on the inhabitants of the disaster area to clarify the realitiesof the recovery of living and to contribute to disaster countermeasures and recovery countermeasures infuture".
Those Polled
From all inhabitants of 20 years old and more in the area that suffered seismic intensity of 7 during
Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, in the area where town gas was suspended and in the whole Kobe city, we
extracted 3,300 people from the basic registries of residents with stratified two-stage random sampling.
(table 1) The survey methods were mail, self-enumeration method and collection by mail. As toquestionnaire items on "circumstances", the theme of this paper, we adopted a form of popular
housekeeping account books, and we asked people to select a pertinent change to their housekeeping that
occurred after the disaster from three options: "increased, no change or decreased" for income, expenses,
and deposits and savings. As to expenses, we classified these into 13 items: food, eating out, housing andTable 1: Research Overview in 2001 and 2003
2001
Random sampled survey
Sampled Population
3,300
Sampled Area
330
No. of Questionnaires Returned
1,389
Return Rate
42.10%
No. of Valid Responses
1,203
Valid Response Rate
36.50%
Population
Respondent Rate

2001
Random sampled survey
3,300
330
1,356
41.40%
1,203
36.50%
2,757,495
0.12%

Panel survey
501
383
76.40%
364
72.70%

Select a pertinent change to your housekeepingthat occurred after Kobe Earthquake1) Income（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

2) Expense（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

3) Food（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

4) Eating Out（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

5) Housing & Furniture（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

6) Fuel & Light（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

7) Daily Goods（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

8) Clothing（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

9) Cultural & Educational Expense（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

10) Social Expense（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

11) Recreational Expense（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

12) Transportation（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

13) Medical Expense（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

14) Insurance（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

15) Car Expense (If any)

（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

16) Savings（Increased・No Change・Decreased）

Figure 1: Questions about Household Economic/Financial Situation

furniture, fuel and light, daily goods, clothing, cultural and educational, social, recreational transportation,
medical, insurance and car, and asked them to select a pertinent change from the same three options.
(figure 1)
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Comparison of "income, expenses and deposits and savings" in 2001 and 2003 (figure 2)
The survey of 2003 showed almost no difference as to deposits and savings when compared with thesurvey in 2001, however it was revealed that as to income and expenses, many responded that theirincomes were reduced, but their expenses were also reduced. With decreased income, they reduced theirexpenses rather than breaking down their deposits and savings to maintain their domestic economy. When
we examine the relationship between the general trends and building damage in the survey of 2001, it
revealed that among those who suffered more severe building damage, many reduced their income, while
increasing expenses, with decreasing deposits and savings. When we examined whether the similar trend
existed in 2003, many of those who suffered significant building damage replied that had they reduced
income, deposits and savings. However, the numbers decreased when compared to that of 2001. As to
expenses, there was no particular trend depending on the extent of their building damage.

IncomeFully damaged
and burned
Half damaged
and burned

2001 Survey

increased

No Change

Decreased2003 Survey

Increased

No Change

Decreased

０１ 6.5０３ 7.3０１ 6.3０３ 11.2

ExpenseNo damage

０１
０３

Fully damaged
and burned

０１
０３
０１
０３

Half damaged
and burned

Deposits
andSavings

Fully damaged
and burned
Half damaged
and burned

19.0

65.8
33.2

40.6

31.8
33.7
46.6

56.4
47.8
44.4

Partially damaged ０１
and burned
０３
No damage

46.2
55.9
38.1
51.3
28.8
41.9

47.5
32.9
51.8
34.7
61.4
46.1

10.1
14.0
9.8
12.0

Partially damaged ０１
and burned
０３

58.2
61.5

35.3
31.3

0%

5.5
23.1

49.3

０１ 3.4 14.9
０３ 6.817.1
19.1
０１ 4.9０３ 4.6
22.8

Partially damaged ０１ 4.9
and burned
０３ 8.9No damage
０１ 6.9０３ 7.9

19.4

38.0
62.6

42.6
31.9
27.5

０１
０３

15.2
26.2
11.7
18.5
9.1

81.6
76.1
76.0
72.6
59.4
64.1

35.6
27.0

48.0
49.8

45.0
42.3
20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Figure 2: Comparison of “income, expenses and deposits and savings” in 2001 and 2003

Three types of expense details in 2001 (figure 3)
The main factor that defined the realities of households account in 2001 was the extent of building
damage of the victims. To investigate these realities in detail, we examined 12 items of expenses (As to"car expenses", not all those polled own their cars, and number of reply was only 69% of the overall reply,
so we have excluded it from the object of our analysis). When we performed cluster analysis on the trendof responses as to expenses details by extent of building damage, three patterns were revealed. We
examined each pattern, and named those patterns as "just keep on growing type", "contriving type" and"cut down only type". The pertinent graph on the 12 expense items made for each building damage levelis attached to each cluster.
"Just keep on growing type""Housing and furniture expenses" and "medical expenses "insurance" fell under this heading. A feature ofthese items is that they could not be reduced at people's personal disposition even though their incomes
were reduced and they were forced into worse circumstances, because the extent of building damage wassevere. Items such as "housing and furniture expenses" that became more important for repair andreconstruction in proportion to the seriousness of building loss and damage, are expenses necessary toprovide safety in their lives, and such expenses could not be reduced at their discretion.
"Contriving type""Contriving type" was further classified into three types. They were: "in spite of effort for contriving, it
increased" pattern; "with contriving, many had decreased expenses" pattern; and "number of increased
and the number of decreased are almost equally matched" pattern. "Fuel and light expenses" and"transportation expenses" matched "in spite of effort for contriving, it increased" pattern. "Cultural andeducational expenses" and "clothing expenses" fell under "with contriving, many had decreased
expenses" pattern. "Food expenses" "daily goods" and "social expenses" fell under "almost equallymatched" pattern.
"Cut down only type""Expenses for eating out" and "recreational expenses" belonged to the "cut down only type". Many people
discontinued or gave up these activities when their incomes decreased. This was because that these items
were easier to curtail in their daily life. These are expense items for important activities that might enrich
the lives of the victims. The fact that many victims reduced these expenses revealed that significant
damage to their buildings forced the victims to live in a less well-off fashion and it was revealed thatmany of the victims are still living in reduced circumstances, and they are yet to recover from theearthquake disaster.
Change of expense details in 2003
As to expenses, we classified them into twelve items: food, eating out, housing and furniture, fuel andlight, daily goods, clothing, cultural and educational, social, recreational, transportation,, medical, andinsurance, to make the same analysis as that of 2001 and examined their relationship with building
damage.
Since the two years from 2001, there was no change in the trend of basic expenses. However, we foundsome changes in several patterns (Figure 4, right). We found three types that have changed expense
pattern toward "decreasing". 1) Insurance changed from "just keep on growing type" to "contriving typewith rather increased expense", 2) "Transportation expenses" changed from "contriving type with rather
increased expense" to "contriving type with main focus on decrease" and three food expenses and daily
goods expense from the "contriving type" to "contriving type with main focus on decrease". Thus, they
have reduced their expenses for a total of five items as shown in the survey in 2003 compared with thoseLegendIncreased

No Change

Decreased

Fully damaged and burned
Half damaged and burned
Partially damaged and burned
No damage0%

uncontrollable

2001 by Housing Damage

５）Housing &Furniture１３）Medical
Expense１３）Medical
Expense

Basic expense items

Just keep on
growing type１２）Transportation

１４）Insurance６）Fuel &Light６）Fuel &LightWith contriving, many
had increased expenses

１２）Transportation３）Food３）Food７）Daily Goods

７）Daily Goods

Contriving type

Selective expense items１０）Social
Expense１０）Social
Expense９）Cultural &Educational
Expense９）Cultural &Educational
Expense８）Clothing

With contriving, many
had decreased expenses

１１）Recreational
Expense８）Clothing４）Eating
Out４）Eating
Out‘Cut down only’ type

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 by Housing Damage

５）Housing &Furniture１４）Insurance

20%１１）Recreational
Expensecontrollable

Figure 3: Change of expense details in 2001 and 2003

of 2001. The analysis revealed that, as a whole, the victims are still in reduced circumstances, and thiswas a factor that decreased consumption as a result, and then stagnated business.
CONCLUSION
In our study, we analyzed "circumstances" items for the surveys in 2001 and 2003 made in the disasterarea of the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, in order to clarify the life recovery process of the victims.
An analysis of the survey of life recovery made in 2001 revealed two facts. 1) The more severe thebuilding damage, the more reduced their incomes, while their expenses were increased, which thenreduced their deposits and savings. It suggested that building damage increased expenses, while theirincomes were decreased due to influence of the disaster, and those people covered the balance withdeposits and savings to maintain their domestic economy. 2) When we examined the relationship between
the expenses details and the extent of building damage, three significant patterns were revealed. The
consumption patterns of those expenses details, generally matched with classification patterns of "basic
expense items" and "selective expense items".
Analysis of the 2003 survey revealed that, 1) there was no change as to income, expenses and deposits
and savings. However it suggested that for many people, their incomes and expenses reduced and tocompensate for the decreased portion, they have reduced expenses rather than breaking down theirdeposits and savings to balance their domestic economy. 2) As to income, deposits and savings, those
who suffered more severe building damage replied that they had reduced their income, deposits andsavings; the trend became less significant when compared with 2001. As to expenses, there were no
significant trends of expenses of victims depending on the extent of their building damage. 3) After two
years, there was no changes in the trend of basic expenses, however, the victims further reduced expenses
for some items.
REFERENCES
1.

2.

3.

Kimura, R., Hayashi, H., Tatsuki, S., and Tamura, K. (2001), “Determinants and Timing of Housing
Reconstruction Decisions by the Victims of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster‐ A 2001
Replication ‐” Journal of Social Safety Science, No.3, 23-32.
Tamura, K., Hayashi, H., Tatsuki, S., and Kimura, R., Noda, T., and Yamori, K. (2003), “A Study on
the Secular Change of Family Budget in the Impacted Area of Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake From the Report of the 2001 and 2003 Panel Surveys-” Journal of Social Safety Science, No.5, 22732.
Tamura, K., Hayashi, H., Tatsuki, S., and Kimura, R. “The Economic/Financial Situation of Kobe
Earthquake Victims Are Still in the Bad Condition Six Years after the Kobe Earthquake”
Proceedings of the 26th JSCE Earthquake Engineering Symposium, Vol.2, 1485-1488.