New Technologies for
Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

21-22 October 2008
Beijing, China

Edited by
Kawin Worakanchana

Co-Organized byCenter for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, China&
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering (ICUS)
Institute of Industrial Science
The University of Tokyo, Japan

NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR URBAN SAFETY OF MEGA CITIES IN ASIA
KIMIRO MEGURO
Director and Professor of International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan

ICUS Report No 31, February, 2009
Preface
Over half of the world’s population is concentrated in urban areas covering just four percent of the world landarea. It is estimated that by 2015, more than 50% of the megacities with a population of more than 10 million
and with high population density, will be in Asia. Also, in this part of the world, rapid economic development
is fast accelerating the pace of urbanization. Unfortunately, the rapid expansion of infrastructure forurbanization is not adequately balanced with appropriate measures for their maintenance and management,
and resulted in urban disasters.
In 2007 and 2008, there were big disasters in Asia, such as killer cyclones Sidr in Bangladesh (2007) andNargis in Myanmar (2008), and the devastating Sichuan earthquake in China (2008). The number of fatalities
and missing reported due to these disasters was well over 240,000 human lives. These unprecedented events
are typical examples that show us the importance of urban safety.
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering (ICUS) was established in 2001 at the Institute of Industrial
Science (IIS), the University of Tokyo, in response to the need of a center to focus on urban safety engineering
including, but not limited to, design, construction, and maintenance of urban infrastructure, forecasting of
likely disasters, disaster management and urban risk management through active international collaboration.
Based on the research output and capability accumulated at IIS till now, ICUS has been carrying out researchand implementing them towards the realization of safer cities in the 21st century.
To bring together the research communities in Asia and the world in order to fully realize our vision of safer
cities in Asia, ICUS has been annually co-organizing the International Symposium on New Technologies for
Urban Safety of Megacities in Asia (USMCA) with its partners in Asian region. Modern technologies such as
Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, remote sensing and satellite image analysis,computer simulation, non-destructive testing method, and non traditional construction materials as well as
innovative solutions combining existing and/or conventional technologies can be very useful for realization ofsafer cities. Here, the phrase “new technology” within the name of the symposium, does not only mean
advanced and/or sophisticated technology. Even lower-level technologies, which are not well-known or
cutting-edge, but are useful for improving urban safety through innovative ways of deployment, are termedhere as new technologies. When I went through this volume of the proceedings, there are several papers which
fit very well to this category. I believe that this type of technology is also very important and essential part ofthis symposium.
The primary objective of the symposium is to bring together decision makers, practitioners and researchers
involved in the field of urban safety to share their expertise, knowledge and experience in tackling the criticalissues for safer cities in Asia. It has also provided an environment to create and reinforce collaboration
networks among experts in the fields relevant to urban safety. Previous USMCAs have been successfully heldin Bangkok, Thailand (2002), Tokyo, Japan (2003), Agra, India (2004), Singapore (2005), Phuket, Thailand(2006), and Dhaka, Bangladesh (2007).
In year 2007, the Center for Public Safety Research (CPSR), Tsinghua University, China and ICUS, whichhave a long collaborative relationship, signed up a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). As a result of thisMOU, ICUS co-organized the 7th USMCA in Beijing together with CPSR, Tsinghua University.
I hope that the present volume, which contains the papers presented during the symposium, provides valuablereference material in the fields of urban safety. Finally, I would like to gratefully acknowledge the sincere
efforts of the Steering Committee, Technical Committee, and the Organizing Committee of USMCA2008 fortheir hard work, valuable suggestions, efficient coordination and praisable initiatives to make this symposium
a success. Also, I would like to thank all the participants who actively attended the Symposium, and thesponsors listed below, who financially contributed to this great event.

Sponsors
National Natural Science Foundation of China,
China

The Foundation for Promotion of Industrial Science,
Japan (SEIKEN SYMPOSIUM 53)

Illinois Fire Service Institute,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA

Global Center of Excellence (GCOE) for
Sustainable Urban Regeneration,
The University of Tokyo, Japan

Homeland Security Research Center, Illinois, USA

China National Institute of Standardization, China

Beijing Global Safety Technology Co. Ltd., ChinaTOKYO GAS Co. Ltd., Japan

October 2008, Beijing, China

Table of Contents
Page

Opening Session
SECTION 1
Keynote Lectures

1

Research on Public Safety(Keynote Lecture)

Fan Weicheng, Liu Yi, Weng Wenguo
Lessons from Recent Storm Surge Disasters --Katrina, Sidr and Nargis(Keynote Lecture)

11

Shibayama Tomoya
Industrial Safety in the 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering(Keynote Lecture)

19

Tamura Masamitsu
Monitoring of Urban Sustainability by Use of Remote Sensing(Keynote Lecture)

31

Yasuoka Yoshifumi
The Restoration Plan of Dujiangyan After the Great Sichuan Earthquake Disaster in
2008

39

(Keynote Lecture)

Ishikawa Mikiko
Comprehensive Disaster Management and Response(Keynote Lecture)

49

Jaehne Richard L
Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the
Public57(Keynote Lecture)

Uomoto Taketo

Disaster Mitigation for Inhabitants of Mega Cities(Keynote Lecture)

69

Sakata Toshibumi
Strategy for Efficient Use of Earthquake Early Warning System for Earthquake
Disaster Reduction

73(Keynote Lecture)

Meguro Kimiro

Technical Sessions
SECTION 2
Rehabilitation and Retrofitting of Urban Structures against Disasters andImpact Loads
Damage to Buildings Due to 2008 MAY 12 WenChuan Earthquake and Cooperative
Activities for Damage Restoration by Japanese Experts
Nakano Yoshiaki

85

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ICUS Report 31
Flexural Behavior of Corroded RC Members with Patch Repair
Kato Yoshitaka, Sahamitmongkol Raktipong95

Shaking Table Test of Timber Masonry House Models Retrofitted by PP-band
MeshesSathiparan Navaratnarajah, Mayorca Paola, Meguro Kimiro

105

Relation between Strength Reduction and Ductility Demand for PP-Band Mesh
Retrofitted Houses
Mayorca Paola, Meguro Kimiro

115

Strength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly
AshNoor M. A., Kaoser A. R

123

Mechanical Behavior of Concrete Member Subjected to Repeated Impulsive ForceYokota Hiroshi, Iwanami M., Takahashi S., Matsubashi T

135

Review of Emergency Technologies to Support Urban Resilience and Disaster
RecoveryFeniosky Peña-Mora, Zeeshan Aziz, Mani Golparvar-Fard, Chen Alberty, Plans Albert P.,
Mehta Saumil J

145

SECTION 3

Advanced Technologies for Monitoring, Assessment and Management of
Urban Safety 1

Prior Disaster Review System for Disaster Assessment in Korea
Yi Waon-ho, Shim Jae-hyun, Chung Jae-hak

155Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity andSurface Water Pollution in Dhaka City
Ahmed Murshed

165

Investigating the Performance of Alos Prism to Estimate Building Heights for Urban
Risk Management
Takeuchi Wataru, Worakanchana Kawin, Tadono Takeo, Warnitchai Pennung

183

Analytical Cost Model in Protective Design Methodology
Liu Chunlin, John Crawford RA, Fang Yea Saen

189

Introduction to Enhanced Architectural Protective Systems
Liu Chunlin, Palermo David

201

Identification of Pollutant Sources in Urban Area Using Inverse CFD Modeling
Huang Hong, Kato Shinsuke, Bady Mahmoud

215

Research and Test Appliance for Protective Garment and Equipment-Thermal
Manikin System
Pan Jin, Tang Xiaoyu

223

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October 2008, Beijing, China
SECTION 4

Risk Assessment, Prediction and Early-warning of Urban Disasters 1

Role of Logistics during Cyclone SIDR
Ansary Mehedi Ahmed, Das Rubel, Afifa Imtlaz Bnus

233

Seismic Microzonation Based on Site Amplification Study of Cox’s Bazar in
Bangladesh
Afifa Imtiaz A.B., Ansary Mehedi Ahmed, Dhar Ashutosh Sutra

239

The Wildfire Early-warning and Early-detection System in Japan
Sawada Haruo, Sawada Yoshito, Nagatani Izumi

251

Landslide Induced Lake-Tsunami at Aratosawa Dam due to the Iwate Miyagi
Nairiku Earthquake 2008
Johansson Jörgen, Tajima Yoshimitsu, Fujita Tomohiro, Konagai Kazuo

259

Integrated Information System for Landslide Disaster Management
Meguro Kimiro, Kawasaki Akiyuki, Torres Tatiana

269

Defense Against Intentional Attacks: Framework for Modeling and Simulation
Zhang Jing, Shen Shifei, Yang Rui

279

SECTION 5

Environmental Impact Assessment due to Rapid Urbanization

A Holistic Approach for Analysing Impacts of Climatic changes on Coastal Zone
Systems
Dutta Dushmanta, Wright Wendy, Adeloju Samuel

287

Researches and Applications of Land Use Planning Based on Risk Analysis
Zheng Cao, Mao Liu, Qingshui Li, Qing Mu

297

Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone
Concentration in Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model
Ooka Ryozo, Khiem M.V., Huang Hong, Hayami Hiroshi

317

Considering the Impact of Climate and Land Cover Change on a Local Hydrological
Flow: The Case Study of Srepok River Basin in Viet Nam and Cambodia
Kawasaki Akiyuki, Rogers Peter, Herath Srikantha, Meguro Kimiro

335

Study on Relaxation Measures for Outdoor Thermal Environment on Present Urban
Blocks in Tokyo Using Coupled Simulation of Convection, Radiation and Conduction
Chen Hong, Ooka Ryozo, Huang Hong, Tsuchiya Takashi

345

Development of E-learning Contents for Increasing Emergency Response Capacity ofDoctors and Nurses in Key Disaster Hospitals
Ohara Miho Y., Kitsuta Yoichi, Yahagi Naoki, Koyama Fujio, Miyazaki Sanae,
Meguro Kimiro

355

SECTION 6

Evacuation Management for Urban Safety

Dynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurpose Bridge due to Vehicular Loading
Ansary Mehedi Ahmed, Rahman Syed Zillur, Ahsan Raquib

365

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ICUS Report 31
Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation using the Monte Carlo method
Li Jianfeng, Yao Xiaohui, Liu Xiaoqing, Wang Yutian, Zhang Bin

377

Study on Risk Assessment of Crowd Evacuation in Venue Area
Li Pan, Weng Wenguo, Ji Xuewei

393

Flood Simulation with an Improved SPH Model
Bao Kai, Zhang Hui, Zheng Lili, Wu Enhua

405

Agent-based Simulation and Modeling of Emergency Response on Repast Platform
Wu Jianhong, Weng Wenguo

415

Network Based Pedestrian Simulator
Soeda Shunsuke, Yamashita Tomohisa, Noda Itsuki

421

SECTION 7

Emergency Management for Urban Disasters 1

Research on the Architecture of Emergency Intelligent Decision Support System
Shao Quan, Weng Wenguo, Yuan Hongyong

427

Analysis of the Emergency Derivation Chain Characteristics Caused by Snow
Disaster
Chen Changkun, Sun Yunfeng, Li Zhi

435

Urban Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS: A Case Study of a Part of Kunshan City, China
Gai Chengcheng, Weng Wenguo, Yuan Hongyong

439

Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Method to Evaluate Full-Scale
Emergency Exercise Plan
Du Ligang, Shen Shifei, Qin Tingxin

449

Application of NSGA II in Emergency Point Layout Optimization of Industrial Zone
Li Dongxue, Liu Mao

457

Network Public Opinion Caused by Public Safety Incidents
Zheng Kui, Shu Xueming

467

SECTION 8

Advanced Technologies for Monitoring, Assessment and Management of
Urban Safety 2

A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis
Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai, Citra Wicaksana, Bui Thanh Tam

475

Analyzing the Socio-Economic and Demographic Determinants of Crime in China
Yan Jun, Shu Xueming, Yuan Hongyong

487

The Comparison and Selection of the Risk Analysis Methodologies on the Whole
Process of Dangerous Chemical Accident
Zhang Chao, Cai Dongshan, Liu Yi

495

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

October 2008, Beijing, China
Reducibility of Seismic and Post-earthquake Urban Fire Hazard in Densely Inhabited
Districts by Simultaneous Seismic & Fire-resistive Reinforcement of Low-rise
Wooden Buildings
Kawagoe Yuko, Hasemi Yuji, Murakami M., Kawai N., Yamada M

505

A Study for Promoting Communication between Research Institutes and General
Society
Abe Mariko, Meguro Kimiro

517

Study on Epidemic Spreading on Alternate Social Networks
Ni Shunjiang, Weng Wenguo

527

SECTION 9

Emergency Management for Urban Disasters 2

Application of Social Theory to The Development Process of an Emergency Retrofitting Method
Henry Michael, Kato Yoshitaka

539

Role of Fire Forces in Rescue and its Development Trends in the Future
Yang Jianfeng�Chen Yingchun

549

Development of Emergency Retrofitting Method Using Fiber Sheets Containing
Hydraulic Resin
Suzuki Masamitsu, Suzuki Ryo, Ito Masanori, Kato Yoshitaka

555

Assessment of Emergency Response Policy Based on Markov Process
Zhou Yafei, Liu Mao

565

Emergency Response of Radiological Attacks Happened in the City
Zheng Qiyan, Zhang Lijun, Huang Weiqi

575

Research on Universal Mode of Describing and Organizing Emergency Cases Basedon Case-based Reasoning
Zhong Qiuyan, Zhang Yingju,Ye Xin, Qiu Jiangnan

581

Comparison of Estimated and Observed Seismic Intensity Map of Selected
Earthquakes
Noor M. A., Kumagai H.

591

SECTION 10

Safety Assessment of Existing Infrastructure

Collector Comparison of Air-borne Salt Attack for Marine Infrastructures in Taiwan
Hsu Kai-Lin, Chang Chao-Shun

603

An Evaluation of Potential Community Hill Slope Instability around Metropolitan
Area in Taiwan
Tseng Kuo-Hung

613

Influence of Initial Curing on Chloride Penetrating Characteristics in Concrete
Exposed to Different Marine Environment
Xue Wen, Dai Jianguo, Yokota Hiroshi, Jin Weiling

621

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ICUS Report 31
Seismic Performance of Wooden Buildings in Japan
Koshihara Mikio

631

Trial Test on The Evaluation of Soil Cementation Generated by The Function of
Microorganism
Sugimoto Daisuke, Kuwano Reiko

641

Development of Hazard Prediction System for Intentional Attacks in Urban Areas
Ohba Ryohji, Yamashita Tomohisa, Ukai Osamu, Kato Shinsuke

647

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh
Jahan Israt, Yousuf Reja M.D., Ansary Mehedi Ahmed

657

Remote Sensing and GIS for Tsunami Damage Assessment - A Case Study
Premadasa Wuditha Nuwan, Dmdok Dissanayake

671

A Method on Improving the Adaptability of Time Series Models and its Applicationin the Analysis of Public Security
Wang Wei

679

SECTION 11

Risk Assessment, Prediction and Early-warning of Urban Disasters 2

Risk Assessment of Global-Scale Natural Disaster
Chang Taiping

689

Model Tests on the Behavior of Flexible Buried Pipe in Sandy Backfill with
Insufficient Compaction
Kuwano Reiko, Ko Dong Hee

699

Experimental Study on the Evaluation of Loosening Surrounding a Cavity in Soil
Sato Mari, Kuwano Reiko

709

A Study on Estimation of Crown Projection Area for Wind Pressure Analysis Using
Lidar Data
Endo Takahiro, Taguchi Hitoshi, Baruah P.J., Sawada Haruo

715

Green Buildings: Current Status and Prospects
Baruah Pranab J., Sumi Akimasa, Endo Takahiro

723

Cyclone Disaster Risk of Bangladesh
Noor M. A., Ahmed N

735

Traffic Flow Analysis for an Appropriate Evaluation of Lost Time in Signal Control
Tanaka Shinji, Ono Takeshi, Kuwahara Masao

745

Safety Assessment of Structural Concrete with Defects and Damages
Maekawa Koichi, Naga Koheii

753

Oil Supply Chain Security Evaluation and Countermeasures
Xu Guangyong , Yong Qidong

763

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Photograph

USMCA2008 Group Photo

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asiaii

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Symposium hall

Exhibition Panels

Opening ceremony

Opening ceremon(All participants joined silent mourning for victims in the 2008 Sechuan earthquake.)

Prof. Weicheng Fan(Chairperson, 7th USMCA organizing committee
and Director, Center for Public Safety Research)ii
iiProf. Meguro Kimiro(Director, ICUS)

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Prof. Hu Dongcheng(Vice president, Tsinghua Univerity)

Prof. Richard L. Jaehne(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Shibayama Tomoya(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Tamura Masamitsu(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Sakata Toshibumi(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Uomoto Takeo(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Yasuoka Yoshifumi(Keynote speaker)

Prof. Waon-Ho Yi(Invited speaker)

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iv
iv

Prof. Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai(Invited speaker)

Dr. Dushmanta Dutta(Invited speaker)

Prof. Yokota Hiroshi(ICUS)

Dr. Ansary Mehedi Ahmed(Invited speaker)

Dr. Kai-Lin Hsu(Invited speaker)

Prof. Tai-Ping Chang(Invited speaker)

Prof. Sawada Haruo(ICUS)

Dr. Koshihara Mikio(ICUS)
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Dr. Kuwano Reiko(ICUS)

Dr. Kato Yoshitaka(ICUS)

Dr. Hong Huang(ICUS)

Dr. Ohara Miho
(ICUS)

Dr. Ooka Ryozo(IIS)Dr. Tanaka Shinji(ICUS)Dr.Takeuchi Wataru(IIS)

Dr. Endo Takahiro(ICUS)New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

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vi
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Dr. Mayorca Paola(ICUS)

Dr. Baruah Pranab J.
(ICUS)

Dr. Kawin Worakanchana(ICUS)

BanquetProf. Meguro handed souvenir toProf. Ishikawa Mikiko. (Keynote speaker)

Prof. Meguro handed souvenir toProf. Nakano Yashiaki. (Invited speaker)

Announcment for USMCA 2009by Prof. Waon-Ho Yi

Young-researcher-award awardees

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ICUS Report 31

Group photoat Beijing National Olympic StadiumGroup photoat Great wall of China

Prof. Sawada gave speech
at symposium welcome party

Symposium farewell partyvii

Opening Session

RESEARCH ON PUBLIC SAFETY
WEICHENG FAN 1,2, YI LIU 1 and WENGUOWENG 1
1
Center for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, P.R. China
wfan@tsinghua.edu.cn
2State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,
University of Science and Technology of China,
Hefei, 230026, P.R. China
ABSTRACTThe framework and methodology of public safety research arepresented in this paper, from the study on catastrophe cases study. The
emergency, acceptor, and response and management linked by hazard
elements constitute the framework of public safety research. The
methodology comprises the deterministic methods, stochastic methods,
sensor-based methods, complex system approach, and the combination ofthem. Examples are provided to show the methodology.
1. INTRODUCTION
In these years, China’s economy has maintained a good growth, whichcomes from the national policy of deepen reform and opening-up.
Unfortunately some unstable and uncertain factors are on rise. One of themost important problems is public safety (Premier Wen, 2006). The Chinese
government is convinced that public safety is a lion in the way during theprocess of constructing a well-off society. And so it attaches much
importance to public safety. The clout of public safety is that all of therelated work is human-oriented, which means the human lives are mostimportant in dealing emergency management.
In fact, many governments all over the world attaches much
importance to emergency management due to many existing public
emergency incidents, e.g. Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, Double
benzene plant explosion at Jilin Petrochemical Company in China, SARS
rampant in China, Hurricane Katrina in USA, 911 incident in USA, and therecent Wenchuan Earthquake in China, etc. One of the reasons for that is thecurrent society is more and more weak. The highly developed technology
gives us the convenient living, but at the same time, provides more andmore probability of the occurrence of public emergency incidents. The
public safety needs supports of science and technology, and public safety
also provides challenges for scientific researchers. However, it is somehow
still difficult to provide a general view of public safety research due to its
complexity. It is a multi-subsystem, multi-level, multi-function system, andthe systems and factors involved are very often uncertain, non-linear,
dynamic and open. There always exist two questions: what is theconnotation and extension for public safety research? What is the1

October 2008, Beijing, China

methodology that fit the research requirement of public safety? In these
paper, section 1discusses what we can learn from the catastrophe case study,
section 3 and 4 give the framework and methodology of public safety
research, respectively, followed by concluding remarks.
2. CATASTROPHE CASE STUDY
There are many catastrophe cases that call for thinking.
Earthquake and tsunami in India Ocean occurred on December 26, 2004. It
was propagated from India’s Sumatra to Sri Lanka taking about 2 hours,with Tsunami’s propagation speed of 200 m/s, the head height of 4-6m, thepeak height of 8-10m, and the water impact of 300kg/m2, the peak impact of1000-2000kg/m2. The sequel was terrible. The dead persons were more than
200,000, and the missing ones reached 50,000. The displaced persons weremore than 500,000 (Homepage 1). Twenty countries were involved with theearthquake and tsunami. Indonesia’s Aceh Province reached 4.5 billion U.S.
dollars of damage, which was about 97% of GPD. The direct loss in Sri
Lanka was about one billion U.S. dollars. And the tourism industry damage
equivalent was about 300 million U.S. dollars. It provides us two scientificthinking. The first is the study of disasters feature information access andanalysis at its early stage. Sri Lanka was struck 2 hours later of the initialtsunami. The casualties could be greatly reduced if the tsunami early
warning signs were obtained and the organized evacuation preparations
were made. The second is the mechanism study and science-based forecast.
Various disasters and accidents will develop following its own law, it isimportant to study the cause and evolution of disasters and pre-warning
methods so as to enhance our ability to response and cope with unexpected
events.
At Jilin Petrochemical Company in China, aniline devices T-102
tower was block due to improper handling causing explosion on November
13, 2005, which resulted in about 100 tons of benzene pollutants entered theSonghua River, polluted water was flowed over the length of 1000km along
its pathway in the River, and large-scale disruption of water supply affected
the normal production and life (Homepage 2). The catastrophe gives us
three scientific thinking. The first is to study derivatives, secondary andcoupling disaster. Coupling of leak, water pollution and diplomatic
problems was the typical secondary disasters. Mechanisms and rules, andmulti-factor risk assessment theory and methods were among the key
scientific problems in the area of unexpected event management. The
second is to study coordinated multi-agencies response mechanism. An
incident often involved multiple governmental administrations, such as
safety monitoring and control, agriculture, water conservancy,
environmental protection, foreign affairs and other government departments.
Establishing a mechanism to communicate, coordinate and cooperate among
various departments is crucial in emergency management. The third is to
study multi-stage multi-objective decision-making contingency theory.
Emergency response is the contingency for multiple goals and decisionmaking and response optimization at different stages of events such as quick

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report for the incident, cleanup and disposal, pollution monitoring,
information dissemination and other policy.
On April 3, 2003, 16 countries reported 2,270 cases of severe acuterespiratory syndrome (SARS), among which 79 Chinese died (Homepage 3).
The infected areas (referring to a secondary local transmission), included
Toronto (Canada), Singapore, Hanoi (Vietnam), Beijing, Guangdong,
Shanxi, Hong Kong and Taiwan (China). And as of April 12, 21 countries
or regions reported 2,960 SARS cases and 119 deaths. This also gives us
thinking. One is to study the mechanism for information sharing. Multichannel, rapid and accurate information transmission and dissemination
mechanisms among all levels of government, and public announcement
were needed in dealing catastrophe like SARS. Another is to study the
cognitive psychology and behavior. Psychological impacted by the incident
and the extent of the uncertainty, emergency measures, and the transmission
mechanism of social panic should be considered.
Hurricane Katrina in USA killed 1,000s people, and caused 500,000
become homeless, and affected 5 million (Homepage 4). The economic loss
reached 100 billion U.S. dollars (risk management company statistics:
economic losses amounted to 1 trillion U.S. dollars). The low efficiency inproviding basic security and a stable social environment is oppugned. In
emergency, only notice of danger for public was issued, but no timed
evacuation plan and slow relief supplies. The main shelter in New Orleans(superball stadium) – a safe place for hurricane refugee became a man-madedisaster site, where there was no proper facilities, disordered management,
and some riots happened in this place. Two scientific thinking is induced
from this catastrophe. The first is the impact of emergency decision
shortcomings on the stability of society, i.e. study of disaster psychology,
mass evacuation strategies, emergency response and the allocation of
resources. The second is the effect of information dissemination mechanism
on rescue, e.g. study on the emergency information gathering mechanism,and the optimal scheduling and distributing rescue forces.
On September 11, 2001, terrorists hijacked airplanes to hit the World
Trade Center, causing the collapse of buildings. "9.11" incident left 3,200
people dead or missing, and economic losses running into hundreds ofbillions of dollars (Homepage 5). It was evidenced that this was an incident
related to fire caused large buildings collapse. It was related to fire
dynamics, safe evacuation, structural security and integrity, ad emergency
response technology. Fire dynamics showed the formation of favorable
building fire environment subject to complex thermal boundary conditions
in a major building fires and its impact on heat transfer characteristics ofbuilding structure. Safe evacuation included the human behavior andevacuation model under a major building fire disaster. Structural security
and integrity were involved with the conditions and modes of building
structure failure and damage when subject to large change of heat settings,
and thermo-mechanical coupling. Emergency response technology included
decision-making and rescue under no early warning of emergency.
On May 12, 2008, 8 level earthquake occurred in Wenchuan. It caused
69226 death, 17923 missing, and direct economy loss was 8451 hundred
million RMB (Homepage 6). In dealing with the earthquake, it had someproblems. The first one is the knowledge of the mechanism of secondary

Research on Public Safety3October 2008, Beijing, China

and derived disaster, i.e. what are the critical conditions. The second one is
the traffic guarantee, i.e. how to design the traffic network for the robustness.
The third one is the communication restoring, e.g. how to constructcommunication backup system. And the last one is the succor equipment, i.e.
how to develop effective succor equipment for earthquake.
It should be noted that these catastrophe cases give us not only
experiences, but also lessons. What can we learn from these catastrophe
cases? It firstly states complicated scientific issues in public safety, which
has the characteristics of multi-disaster, multi-factor, multi-scale, andvariability. And there are key scientific questions in emergency
management, e.g. risk assessment, monitoring and control, forecasting andearly warning, command and decision-making, rescue and reconstruction,etc. This relies on public safety research.
3. FRAMEWORK OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH
Looking into the whole process of the emergency and its response, one canidentify three key topics: the emergencies, the acceptors, and the response
and management. What links the topics is the so-called “hazard elements”.
Based on such ideas, a framework of public safety research is symbolized asa Triangle shown in Figure 1. The emergency is to study its occurrence,development, evolution laws to know the type, intension and time-and-space
distribution characteristics for acceptors. The acceptor is to study destroymechanism and mode from emergency, and know the incident chain effect.
And the response and management is to study the type, time, strength of
mankind’s interventions for both of emergency and acceptor.

Figure 1: Triangle of public safety research
Hazard elements have forms of the matter, the energy, and theinformation. The way hazards elements induce emergency is to reach acritical value or meet with some activators. For example, the earthquake’s
hazard element is crustal motion with the form of energy. Earthquake occurs
when the crustal motion reaches a certain intension, i.e. energy reaches acritical value. The hazard element of a hazard materials leakage accident is
the hazardous materials with the form of matter. When the hazardous
materials mass exceeds the capacity of tank (critical value), or there are

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some cracks causing explosion (activator), the hazardous materials leakage
accident will take place. One of the society panic’s hazard elements is the
rumor with the form of information. If the information mass reaches acritical volume, or some inducing factors happen, the society panic may
occur.
Emergency refers to those disasters or events that will bring damages
to human beings, physical objects, and the social and natural environment.
The evolution of emergency obeys some certain laws, and study ofemergency is normally to find the temporal and spatial distribution of
emergency effect and the affection manner with the form of energy, matter,and information.
Acceptor means the objects which receive the actions produced orreleased or carried by the emergencies. It is represented as human beings,
substances (such as buildings, facilities, life-lines, etc), and operationalsocial and economical systems. Acceptors’ failure has two forms: bodydestruction or function failure. Failures of acceptors may cause unexpected
release or activation of “hazard elements”, which may induce secondary
disasters forming the incident chain effects. We can think about theacceptors of earthquake as an example. The acceptors of earthquake include
human beings, substance of buildings and lifeline system, etc. and system ofenvironment and society, etc. Body destruction and function failure of thehuman beings are death and injured, and behavior ability, respectively. For
substance, the body destruction is building collapse and tube crack, and thefunction failure is no residency and no water, etc. The function failure ofsystems takes the form of ecosystem destruction and society function loss,
etc. Fire is the often occurred secondary incidents due to gas tube crackfrom earthquake. It is evidenced that gas tube is the acceptor of earthquake
and behaves as the hazard element of fire.
The response and management refers to all the mankind’s
interventions aiming to disaster prevention and mitigation. It includes
evaluation, preparedness, response and recovery etc. It is performed to theemergencies or to the acceptors, so as to reduce emergencies’ actions orstrengthen acceptors or break down the incident chain effect.
Studies of public safety are normally to find the evolution laws ofhazard elements and to know the type, the intensity, and the temporal andspatial variation of the emergency’s actions on the acceptors, to understandthe states variation, the failure criterion, the vulnerability and reliability, andstrengthen method for acceptors, and to find suitable manner, strength, timeand scale to perform response and management. In summary, the core of theresearches is to study the behaviors of hazard elements. That is, how thehazard elements convert to emergencies, how the hazard elements act on
acceptors by emergencies, and how the failed acceptors cause domino effectvia the hazard elements. Thereby one knows how to perform well-timed
emergency managements appropriately.

Research on Public Safety5October 2008, Beijing, China

4. METHODLOGY OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH
The Methodologies of the above studies include five aspects ofdeterministic, stochastic, sensor-based methods, complex system approach,and combined methods.
The usual deterministic methods include experiments and simulations.
Laboratory gravity currents are frequently used to model the dynamics ofavalanches, accidental dense gas releases, and fire propagation (Hallworth etal. 1993). 3-d fluid dynamical model are used to simulate hazardous gas
leakage (Chen, et al. 2007). Firstly grids of landform and city zone are built.
Secondly number computation is carried out to get the hazardous gas
distribution, and then the results are embedded into GIS. Figure 2 shows
sulfureted hydrogen gas blowout simulation results. The flow rate is
200,000m3/h, and the concentration of mouth of well: 0.12 kg/m3.

Figure 2: Sulfureted hydrogen gas blowout simulation results
Unfortunately, the deterministic method is not practicable for all kindsof emergencies, and some have to recur to stochastic models. Crime
forecasting is a new research field of public safety. It is difficult to forecast
crime with deterministic method due to its complexity. With 110 CAD
crime data, time series model can be designed and short-term forecasting ofproperty crime can be made. Two steps are designed to build the models.
The first step is model recognition, and the next is to determine the modelorder and parameters. Based on the actual crime data, we can use Moving
Average (MA) with the order of 1. Figure 3 gives the forecasting trend isconsistent with the actual ones by week.

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750

700

650

actualforecast

600

550

500
80

85

90

95

100

Figure 3: Property crime and its forecasting trend (by week)
Sensor-based methods are also important tools for public safety
research. Information captured by detection apparatuses and analyzed isused to understand the temporal and spatial variation of disaster. The
relationship between logged forest fire and droughts caused by El Niño arestudied using coarse- and high-resolution optical and radar satellite imagery(Siegert, et al. 2001). When the materials accidentally release in a densely
populated urban center, it is important to predict the transport characteristicsof the plume to effectively manage emergency response and mitigate
consequences. So it is necessary to develop an approach to determine thesource location and its strength by an array of independent sensors
distributed in the urban areas, combined with environment conditions, e.g.
wind direction, wind velocity. A method of Markov Chain Monte Carlosampling based on Bayesian inference is developed to determine thehazardous materials source using sensor data. Figure 4 shows the joint
distributions of the source location on the plane with this method.

250

sourcesensorbuilding

150

50

Y(m)

P
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005

-50

-150

-250
-250

-150

-50

X(m)

50

150

250

Figure 4: The joint distributions of the source location on the plane

Research on Public Safety7

October 2008, Beijing, China

Number of New Cases

Complexity in public safety results in more applications of complex
system approach. Complex network theory is one of the most useful
methods to study disease outbreak (Riley, 2007) and rumor spread in groups(Moreno, et al. 2004). It is also frequently used to study the robustness andresilience of life-line systems with the existing form of network (Albert, etal. 2000). The human travel has scaling law and the social group has
evolution self-optimization characteristics (Brockmann, et al. 2006, Palla etal. 2007). Forest fire is an example of self-organized critical behavior(Malamud, et al. 1998). Decision-making is the key problem of emergency
response and management, and the complex system approach, e.g. gametheory and neural network, etc. is usually used to understand the decisionmaking task (Sanfey, 2007). To explore the effects of human travel patternson the spatio-temporal dynamics of large scale epidemics, heterogeneous
spatial metapopulation networks is constructed with the scaling laws ofhuman travel, i.e. p � r � ~ r � �1� b� and p � tw � ~ tw��1� a � . Figure 5 gives the example
time series of newly infected cases. The simulation results show that theoccurrence probability of global outbreaks or the survival probability issignificantly dependent on the characteristic travel distance, thecharacteristic waiting time and the memory effects of human travel.
8
6
4
2
0
15
10
5
0
15
10
5
0
500
400
300
200
100
0

(a)

15

(b)

(c)

20

(d)

30

40

60

30

45

60

80

90

60

100

120

75

120

140

150

180

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Time of Onset
Figure 5: Example time series of newly infected cases

It is not easy to solve a public safety problem using only one of theabove four methods due to its complexity. It has frequently a case that amain method performs with some other methods as supplements, i.e.
combined methods. Information from sensor-based method is usually used
for determination of some parameters for deterministic method, andmodification of the data for stochastic method (Malamud, et al. 1998). Nodeor link dynamics using the deterministic model is useful to understand thewhole network mechanism with the complex system approach (Albert, et al.
2000). Some models in the complex system approach are usually built byembedding the deterministic, stochastic and sensor-based methods (Batty,2005). Integrated risk analysis is a typical case with the combined method.
The occurrence probability of emergency is based on stochastic methods,
and the evolution sequel of emergency is from deterministic methods.

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Failure effects of acceptor are frequently based on deterministic methods.
And the consideration of response and management are possibly based on
sensor-based methods and complex system approach, etc.
5. CONCLUDING REMARKSThis paper presents some scientific thinking from catastrophe cases such as
Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, Double benzene plant explosion at
Jilin Petrochemical Company in China, SARS rampant in China, Hurricane
Katrina in USA, the “911” incident in USA, and the recent Wenchuan
Earthquake in China. Based on the case study, framework and methodologyof public safety research are given. The emergency, acceptor, and response
and management linked by hazard elements constitute the Triangle of public
safety research. The methodology includes the deterministic, stochastic,
sensor-based methods, complex system approach, and combined methods.
It should be noted that natural disasters and man-activity related
incidents are common enemy of human being, and public safety is a general
problem all over the world. Public safety research is complex in theframework and methodology, and has extensive problems to be solved.
International cooperation and exchange among the countries should beenhanced, so as to jointly cope with calamity with more efficiency. Center
for Public Safety Research, as a member of the community, will makefurther efforts in public safety research and education, and hopefully
contributes to a better and safer environment for human life.
REFERENCES
Albert R, Jeong H and Barabási AL., 2000. Error and attack tolerance ofcomplex networks. Nature, 406: 378-382.
Brockmann D, Hufnage L and Geisel T., 2006. The scaling laws of humantravel, Nature, 439: 462-465.
Chen JG, et al. 2007. Numerical prediction and transportation study of
poisonous gas transportation on complex terrain. Journal of Tsinghua
Univeristy, 47: 381-384. (In Chinese)
China State Council, 2006. National Emergency Response Plan. (In
Chinese)Hallworth MA, Phillips JC, Huppert HE and Sparks RSJ., 1993.
Entrainment in turbulent gravity currents, Nature, 362: 829-831.
Homepage 1, http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2005-02-04/17055047882s.shtml.
Homepage 2, http://env.people.com.cn/GB/1073/3887374.html.
Homepage 3, http://web.haoyisheng.com/html/hysh/sp-topic/sars/others/taolun02.htm.
Homepage 4, http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-08/31/content_3424479.htm.
Homepage 5, http://dip.sinoth.com/Doc/article/2008/9/11/server/1000024157.htm.
Homepage 6, http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2008-08/21/content_16294134.htm.
Malamud BD, Morein G and Turcotte DL., 1998. Forest fires: an example
of self-organized critical behavior, Science, 281: 1840-1842.
Moreno Y, Nekovee M and Pacheco AF., 2004. Dynamics of rumor
spreading in complex networks, Physical Review E, 69: 066130: 1-7.

Research on Public Safety9October 2008, Beijing, China

Palla G, Barabási AL and Vicsek T., 2007. Quantifying social groupevolution, Nature, 446: 664-667.
Riley S., 2007. Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease,
Science, 316: 1298-1302.
Sanfey AG., 2007. Social decision-making: insights from game theory andneuroscience, Science, 318: 598-602.
Siegert F, Ruecker G, Hinrichs A and Hoffmann AA., 2001. Increased
damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El
Niño, Nature, 414: 437-440.
Wen, J.B., 2006. Government work report. (In Chinese)

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

LESSONS FROM RECENT
STORM SURGE DISASTERS-KATRINA, SIDR AND NARGISTOMOYA SHIBAYAMA
Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan
tomo@ynu.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThe present paper is a summary of the field surveys of storm surge
disasters caused by the recent three major cyclones or hurricanes.
Hurricane Katrina landed in Louisiana State, USA in August 29, 2005 andit gave strong impacts to the coastal area. In November 15, 2007, Cyclone
Sidr passed southern part of Bangladesh. For this case, cyclone sheltersthat were constructed after the serious damage of 2001 cyclone were very
effective to save lives. In May 2, 2008, cyclone Nargis attacked the southpart of Myanmar that are the river basins of Irrawaddy and Yangon. Since
there were few experience of cyclone attacks to river delta area, there weresevere damages in the river basins.
1. INTRODUCTION
Coastal environments are vulnerable to three possible natural
disasters, namely, tsunami, storm surge, and high wave attack due to storms.
Since a storm surge is also caused by a Typhoon or a Cyclone, there is aconsiderable probability that the second and the third types of disaster canarrive to the same area at the same time.
In the history of human beings, many people have lost their lives,houses, properties, etc. due to coastal disasters. For example, in Nagoya
city, Japan, 4,697 people were killed in 1957 due to the effects of a storm
surge. In Netherlands, a similar disaster occurred in 1953. Recently, in
1991, a strong storm surge came to Bangladesh and in 2005 Hurricane
Katrina came to the U.S. south coast. Hence, the Japanese experience
became a strong motivation for the Japanese government to construct storm
surge barriers along coastlines of concentrated urban coastal areas.
Nonetheless, designing structures towards the protection against storm
surges is a very important research topic in Coastal Engineering. Figure 1
shows a typical research flow for disaster mitigation. At the first stage ofthe flow, it is necessary to perform field survey to know the reality ofdisaster mechanisms.
In these three years, we have frequent attacks of storm surges. They
are as follows.
1) Hurricane Katrina, south part of USA, August 29, 2005
2) Cyclone Sidr, south part of Bangladesh, November 15, 2007
3) Cyclone Nargis, south part of Myanmer, May 2, 2008.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

For these three disasters, the author was the leader of disaster survey
teams (Shibayama et al., 2006, Shibayama et al., 2008-1, Shibayama et al.,2008-2). In the following part, the survey results are briefly explained.

Figure 1: Flow of risk management for coastal disasters.
2. SURVEYS
2.1

Cyclone Nargis (Shibayama et al., 2008b)

Figure 2 shows the route of Nargis. It crosses the south part of
Myanmar. Figure 3 shows our survey points along Yangon river.
Significant storm surge occur in all survey points. Surge level changes fromplace to place and the maximum height in Yangon district was more than 3
m. Wave height over water level was also high up to more than 2 m. In
rainy season under flood, the water level becomes almost equivalent to theones in Nargis cyclone. Therefore people knew where to evacuate. Even forthe cases that surge level was 0.3 to 0.4 m, houses were destroyed due towind waves. Figure 4 shows one example of measurements. Due to strong
restriction by the army, the survey area was limited.
The major findings are as follows.
1)
The storm surge level was over 3 m in Yangon river basin and 4
m in Irrawadi river basin.
2)
Storm surge traveled trough major rivers, branch rivers andirrigation channels, and flooded over land.
3)
Residents are accustomed to floods in rainy season but not tostorm surges.
4)
It is worth while to compare with cases of Hurricane Katrina,
Cyclone Sidr, and Indian Ocean Tsunami.

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ICUS Report 31(Shibayama et al., 2008b)

Figure 4: Result in Thilewaa Port (Shibayama et al., 2008b)(Shibayama et al., 2008b)

Lessons From Recent Storm Surge Disasters -Katrina, Sidr And Nargis

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 5: Survey route and measured results after Sidr
(Shibayama at al., 2008a)
2.2

Cyclone Sidr (Shibayama et. al, 2008a)

Field surveys were performed in the southwest of Bangladesh to learn
lessons out of severe disasters due to Cyclone Sidr. Spatial distributions ofinundation heights were measured around the most damaged area. Figure 5
shows survey route and measured heights. Inundation heights along theBaleshwar river and the Burishwar river were relatively high compared tothose observed on the coast of Kuakata although these sites are far from thecoast. Detailed surveys were thus performed in these three areas and there
found several residents who witnessed bore-like waves hitting on thedamaged area. Embankments along the river had been eroded before thestorm while dikes on the coast significantly functioned to reduce thedamages of the coastal area behind. Figure 6 shows one example ofmeasurements in Sombonia.

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Figure 6: Results in Somboniya (Shibayama at al., 2008a)

MobileGulf Port
Aug.29 15:00

5

BiloxiNew
Orleans
New Orleans

Aug.29 12:00

� �

5�������

Aug.29 9:00

5

0

15

30

60

90

³

120
Kilometers

Figure 7: Route of Katrina (Shibayama et al., 2006)
2.3 Hurricane Katrina (Shibayama et al., 2006)
Figure 7 shows the route of Katrina and she hit the New Orleans andcoast of Lousiana. Figure 8 shows measured result of Gulf Port and Figure
9 shows the result of Waveland. In Waveland, information from the realtime video record was obtained. They are as follows.
1) Storm surge came to the city of Waveland at around 9:40 in themorning.
2) Almost in 20 minutes water level raised very rapidly and come to thelevel of roof of the 1st floor at 10:00.
3) At 13:30, water level became less than 1m inside of the house.

Lessons From Recent Storm Surge Disasters -Katrina, Sidr And Nargis

15

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 8: Results in Gulf Port
(Shibayama et al., 2006)

Figure 9: Results in Waveland(Shibayama et al., 2006)
4) At 15:15, there were no water inside the house but in the street,water level was still half of the level of car doors.
5) At 16:00, water already went out from the street.
The storm surge stayed in the city for almost 5-6 hours but majordisaster occurred during the first 3 hours.
As results of the survey we obtained the following conclusions.
1) Activity of storm surge is like flood and small waves with heightless than 10cm were accompanied.
2) Disaster mainly depended on water level and flow velocity andwave effect looks minor from the video in this area.

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3) The view of disaster site after storm surge looks like those of south
Sri Lank or Banda Ache of Indonesia which we observed in ourtsunami survey work in those areas.
4) Water with high momentum suddenly came and washed away
houses and destroyed them.
5) It was found that the wave force is more effective on the damage
than the inundation only.
6) The major difference from Japanese concept comes out from land
use and density of population in coastal area and also the policy of
central or local government.
3. CONCLUSIONS
From the field surveys, it appeared that the number of lives lost depended
on the geographical and social conditions of local area. For the retreat andrecovery process, we should consider the local condition of the topography
and the social conditions of the area. In order to establish a reliable disasterprevention system, we should design appropriate protection structures andalso should design evacuation plan for residents in the area.
REFERENCES
Shibayama T., Tajima, Y., Kakinuma, T., Nobuoka, H., Yasuda, T., Ahsan,
R., Rahman, M. M., Islam, S., 2008a, Storm Surge due to Cyclone
Sydr in Bangladesh, Annual Journal of Coastal Engineering, 52(2)(in Japanese)
Shibayama, T., Takagi, H. and Hgun Hnu, 2008b, Survey of storm surge by
cyclone Nargis, JSCE Magazine ‘Civil Engineering’, Vol. 93, No. 7,
41-43, (in Japanese).
Shibayama, T., Yasuda,T., Kojima, H., Tajima, Y., Kato, H;, Nobuoka, H.,
Yasuda T., and Tamagawa, T., 2006, Survey of Disaster Damages by
Hurricane Katrina, Annual Journal of Coastal Engineering, 50(2),401-405 (in Japanese).

Lessons From Recent Storm Surge Disasters -Katrina, Sidr And Nargis

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October 2008, Beijing, China

18

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

INDUSTRIAL SAFETY IN THE 21ST
CENTURY AND ROLE OF SAFETY
ENGINEERINGMASAMITSU TAMURA
Professor, Yokohama National University
Emeritus Professor, The University of TokyoJapan
m-tamura@ynu.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
In order to highlight recent industrial safety problems, we cite a few
chemical accidents that recently occurred in Japan and discuss theirbackground factors from the viewpoints of a change in human perspective
and social situations and changes in the industrial structure.
Accordingly, we put forth a proposal for industrial safety in the 21st
century. It is as follows: every product must be harmonized with individuals,
society, and the environment at every stage of its life cycle—from
production to consumption to disposal—and safety should be one of themost important considerations for industrial activities.
In order to ensure industrial safety in the 21st century, we classify a
few influential factors on the recent industrial safety problems andintroduce and discuss a concept of “safety power”.
Safety power indicates the safety level of plants and is composed ofpotential safety basis and safety culture. For the promotion of selfcontrolled safety, the concepts of safety power, potential safety basis, andsafety culture and their evaluation indicators must be discussed so that they
can be established, and a system for evaluating and intensifying safety
power must be developed.
In order to promote industrial safety, safety engineering should be
developed and established; the systemization of safety engineering and thedevelopment of the basis of safety engineering should be discussed.
It is expected that safety engineering will help the improvement of not
only industrial safety but also social safety.
1. INTRODUCTION
Today, chemical substances have become indispensable for living a
comfortable life. For one, they play a vital role as sources of energy; finechemicals such as drugs and agricultural products, materials, etc—in

19

October 2008, Beijing, China

essence, all applications that have resulted in making our lives more
comfortable.
Their several advantages notwithstanding, chemical substances may
potentially cause energy hazards, health hazards, and environmental hazards.
Improper handling of chemicals with potential hazards without adequate
knowledge may result in fires or explosions, health problems, andenvironmental problems.
In this report, we cite a few chemical accidents that occurred in the
recent past in Japan in order to highlight recent industrial safety problems,
and we discuss their background factors from the viewpoint of changes inhuman perspective and social situations and changes in the industrial
structure. We can easily relate influential background factors on the recent
industrial safety problems in other industries to those associated with thechemical industry.
In this work, we put forth a proposal for industrial safety in the 21st
century. It is as follows: in this, the 21st century, every product must be
harmonized with individuals, society, and the environment during every
stage of its life cycle—from production to consumption and then, finally, todisposal—and safety should be one of the most important considerations as
far as industrial activity is concerned.
In order to ensure industrial safety in the 21st century, influential
factors on the recent industrial safety problems have been classified and aconcept of “safety power” has been suggested and discussed. Safety power
indicates the safety level of a plant and is composed of two parameters—
potential safety basis and safety culture. In order to promote self-controlled
safety, each concept of safety power, potential safety basis, and safety
culture should be discussed, their evaluation indicators should bedetermined, and a system should be developed for evaluating andintensifying safety power.
In addition, safety engineering should be developed and established sothat it can contribute to the promotion of industrial safety. In this paper, we
discuss the systemization of safety engineering and the development of thebasis of safety engineering.
2. RECENT SAFETY PROBLEMS AND THEIR BACKGROUND
2.1

Recent safety problems involving chemical substances

Several accidents and problems involving chemical substances haverecently occurred in Japan; for example, an explosion accident during thetransport of hydrogen peroxide in 1999, an explosion accident ofhydroxylamine during preparation in 2000, an explosion accident offireworks, a fire and explosion accident of RDF during storage, a fire
accident in petroleum tanks during an earthquake, an explosion accident of agas holder during storage and a fire accident in a rubber plant during
preparation in 2003, a fire accident in a petroleum tank during storage, andsome fire accidents in a hydrogenation process, an accessory equipment of atopper, and the hydrogen preparation process at petroleum plans in 2006.
All these accidents occurred could be attributed to factors such as a lack of
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safety awareness; insufficient safety knowledge; shortcomings in safety
management such as deterioration of equipments, investment cuts, andpersonnel reduction due to outsourcing and increased utilization of
subcontractors; and insufficient budget allocation, personnel affairs, etc.
2.2 Background of safety problems
The recent economic development and an improvement in people’s
lifestyle have drastically altered human perspective and social situations andhave changed industrial structure remarkably by way of rapid advancement,
multiplicity, complexity, and internationalization of industries. This hasbrought about drastic changes in all spheres of social life: education
programs have changed, families now include a smaller number of children,the basic family unit is witnessing a shift from an extended setup to anuclear setup, and internationalization is taking place. However, thesechanges lead to various problems. For example, the younger generation
may have a low sensitivity to hazards, a different sense of values, and a low
social awareness due to the protected and restricted environment they are
exposed to and their limited experience of hazards during their childhood.
In addition, the existing game generation believes that any action canbe approached like a game and, therefore, can be performed without deep
consideration.
We must bear in mind that due to rapid advancement, multiplicity,
complexity, internationalization, and extreme situation of industries, thepotential hazards of materials and processes increase. Secondly, due todifferentiation, specialization, and computerization of jobs, engineers andworkers have some difficulties in comprehending the overall picture as wellas the individual processes. Thirdly, due to rationalization and restructuring,
there remain only a few experienced workers capable of understanding thecontents of the processes. These features may lead to difficulties intechnical transfer on process safety from experienced workers to young
workers.
3. INDUSTRIAL SAFETY IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Society in the 21st century is expected to be harmonized with safety and theenvironment. Therefore, in addition to focusing on their quality andproductivity targets, industries must also endeavor to harmonize technology
with safety and the environment.
Therefore, it is imperative that every product must be harmonizedwith individuals, society, and the environment during every stage of its life
cycle—from production to consumption to disposal—and safety should be
one of the most important considerations with regard to industrial activities.
In order to ensure industrial safety in the 21st century, it is important
to classify the influential factors on the recent industrial safety problems,and efforts must be made to intensify self-controlled safety by (1) promoting
the concept of safety power and (2) by improving international competitive
power.

Industrial Safety in The 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering21

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 1 shows the classification of influential factors on recent
industrial safety problems.
Classification of influential factors on recent industrial safety problems
Influential factors

Background influential factors
politics, economics, society, culture, climate etc

Indirect influential factors
constitution, administration, organization, management,
education etc of enterprise and its safety culture

Direct influential factors
Information factors
safety knowledge and technologies and their common understanding
Human factors
lower sense of safety, lower sensitivity tohazards, lack of safety moral

Factors of equipments, instruments
and systems
lower function and damage

Safety problems

Fig.1 Classification of influential factors on recent industrial safety problems

Figure 1: Classification of influential factors on recent industrial safety
problems
Accidents such as an explosion or fire at a plant involve direct
influential factors such as human factors (low sense of safety, lowsensitivity, lack of safety morals, etc.); factors concerning equipment,
instruments, and systems; and information factors (safety knowledge andtechnology and their common ownership). However, in many cases, inaddition to the direct influential factors, certain indirect influential factors
such as constitution, administration, organization, management, education,and safety culture of plants may be involved. In such a scenario, it becomes
essential to consider that a solution to essential problems may not be foundonly by solving problems due to direct influential factors. Furthermore,some background influential factors such as regulations, economics, society,culture, climate, etc. may also exist, in which case it may not be possible tosolve the problems existing at the plant by our efforts.
Then, in order to increase awareness of self-controlled safety, we
introduce and discuss a concept described as “safety power”.
Safety power indicates the safety level of plants and is composed of(1) potential safety basis and (2) safety culture, to support potential safetybasis.
Figure.2 shows the two components of safety power.
In the production process, products are manufactured from raw
materials using equipment, instruments, and systems. Safety can be ensured
by adequate safety management, operation management, and equipment
management. Potential safety basis would imply the use of some adequate
technologies, organizations, and management to carry out production fromthe viewpoints of quality, efficiency, and safety.

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Safety power
Safety culture
Potential safety basis
Organization

President
ManagerManagement

Operator

Technology

Safety management

Operation
management

Materials

Research &Development

DesignEquipments/
Instruments/Systems
Construction

Products
Operation

Equipment
management

MaintenanceFig.2 An2:
idea
safetycomposedof potential safetybasis andsafety
safety culture
FigureAnfor
idea
forpowersafetypower composedof potentialbasis
and safety culture

Figure 3 shows a change in risk with the introduction of safetysystems. Risk could be reduced by introducing equipments and instruments
for the prevention of accidents and perfecting manuals and guidelines at thefirst stage and, furthermore, by introducing a risk management system at thesecond stage. Then, the task ahead is to think about the introduction ofsafety culture for additional risk reduction at the third stage.

Complication of risk structure
Change of human perspective
and social situations

Risk

Prevention ofequipments &instruments
Perfection ofmanuals,
guidelines etc

Introduction ofrisk
management

Safety culture

Introduction of safety system

Figure3: Introduction
safetysystems
systems
Fig.3
Introduction ofofsafety
andandriskrisk

Industrial Safety in The 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 4 shows an idea for systemization of safety culture. It
comprises eight elements, namely, top governance and commitment as top
management; source management and work management as management;
awareness, motivation, and learning as a potential ability of individuals andthe organization; and communication in the internal organization and withthe external organization.
It then becomes necessary to discuss each concept of safety power,
potential safety basis, and safety culture in order to establish them anddetermine their evaluation indicators.

Safety culture
Top management

Top governanceCommunication

Management
Commitment
Source management

Work management

Man�
Organization
Learning

Awareness
Motivation

An idea
forsystemization
systemization of safety
culture culture
Figure 4: Fig.4
An ideaforof safety

Figure 5 shows a system for evaluating and intensifying safety power.
We can establish an evaluation method for safety power by developing aprocess safety management program and a safety culture program,following which we can intensify safety power by using the establishedevaluation methods. In such a case, the evaluation of safety power should
be conducted first by self-evaluation and then by a third-party evaluation forthe purpose of objectivity and the intensification of safety power should be
carried out not only by self-intensification but also by the support of a third
party. In addition, supporting systems can be used for evaluating andintensifying safety power.
Evaluation method for safety power

Common information in each industrial field
Estimation of evaluation standard for safety power in the foreign countries

Evaluation of safety power

Self-evaluation
Objective evaluation by the third party

Process safety
management
program

Supporting system forevaluating safety power

Safety culture
programIntensification of safety power
Self-intensification
Supporting by the third party

Supporting system for intensifying safety power

Figure 5: Systemfor evaluating
andintensifying
safety power
Fig.5 Systemfor evaluating andintensifying
safety power
24

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

4. ROLE OF SAFETY ENGINEERING AND ITS DEVELOPMENT
In this section, we describe the systemization of safety engineering, thedevelopment of the basis of safety engineering, and the social contributionsof safety engineering.
4.1 Systemization of safety engineeringFirst, we discuss the concepts of risk and safety and then discuss thesystemization of safety knowledge. We are faced with many risks
indicating frequency and effect of incidents and accidents in our daily lifeand society; due to food, clothing, shelter, sports, leisure, travel, hobby, etc.
As shown in Figure6, safety would imply a situation in which the level ofrisk decreases below a predecided social allowance level due to efforts ofindividuals, organization, and society. In this case, a social allowance risk
level implies an allowance risk level decided by society after consideringboth benefit and risk.
To clarify the concept of systemization of safety engineering, we firstconsider the systemization of safety knowledge.

Danger & safety
Danger ������
Safety ������

� � Risk�� � Social allowance risk level

Figure6:An
Anideaidea
dangerand safety
Fig.6
for fordangerand safety
Figure 7 shows a system of safety knowledge. In order to ensure
safety, it is necessary to carry out hazard identification first, followed byrisk evaluation and, finally, risk management from the viewpoints of benefit
and risk. Further, it would be necessary to develop a system comprising theorganization, management, education, regulations, etc. so that individuals
and the organization could ensure safety by using safety knowledge basis oncommon knowledge in all fields and specific knowledge in each field.

Industrial Safety in The 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering25

October 2008, Beijing, China

System of safety knowledge
Realization of safety

Idea for safety

Identification of hazards

Systems for organization,
management, education,
regulation etc

Risk evaluation

Risk management(benefit and risk)

Individual / Organization
Safety knowledge basis
common knowledge
in all fields
specific knowledge
in each fieldFig.7
of safety
knowledge
Figure7:System
Systemof safety
knowledge

Figure 8 shows the utilization fields of safety.
Enterprises should operate by taking into consideration not only safetyadministration (finance, credit, etc.), production safety such as material
safety and process safety, and product safety, but also regulation,internationalization, and the private and social lives.
Utilization fields of safety
Regulation

International affairs

Operation of enterprise� Safety administration (finance, credit etc)
� Production safety(material safety, process safety etc)
� Product safety

Private lives

Social lives

Utilization fields
fields of ofsafetyFigure 8: Fig.8
Utilization
safetyFigure 9 shows the systemization of safety engineering fields. As
shown in the figure, safety engineering broadly comprises common fields
and specific fields. Figure 10 shows the systemization of safety knowledge
in the chemical industry as an example; in this case, safety knowledge
encompasses common knowledge as well as specific knowledge.

26

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
Systemization of safety engineering fields
Civil engineering

Specific
fieldsArchitecture engineering
Mechanical engineering
Electric/electronic engineering
Traffic engineering
Material engineering
Atomic energy engineering

CommonfieldsChemical engineering
Energy engineering etc

Safety engineering
Human engineering
Reliability engineering
Information engineering
Management engineering etc

Fig.9 Systemization
safety engineeringengineering fields
Figure 9: Systemizationof ofsafety
fieldsSystemization of safety knowledge in the chemical industry

Commonknowledge

Specificknowledge
Material
safetyReactionsafetyProcess
safetyBasis of safety

Equipment/ instrument
safety etc

Human properties
Accidents analysis

Risk analysis
Disaster prevention
Safety management
Safety audit
Safety education

Fig.10 Systemization of safety knowledge in the chemical industry
Figure 10:
Systemization of safety knowledge in the chemical industry

4.2 Development of the basis of safety engineering
Figure 11 shows the concept of industrial safety that also takes into
consideration social safety. Henceforth, when dealing with industrial safety,
we must consider not only production safety in industry but also productsafety in society
Figure 12 shows the development of a forcing engine for safetyengineering for contribution to society. To develop a forcing engine forsafety engineering, we should make up safety specialists data base (DB) andtheir training method in the general and specific fields, develop a safetyknowledge basis in the common and specific fields, and develop safetyengineering methods such as hazard prevention methods, safety evaluation

Industrial Safety in The 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering27

October 2008, Beijing, China

methods, risk prevention methods, and accident analysis methods in thecommon and specific fields.
Industrial safety considering social safety

Social safety
Industrial safety
Society

Production safety
Industry

�Potential
safety basis
�Safety culture

Product safety

A concept
industrial safety
consideringsocial safety social safety
Figure 11: AFig.11
concept
ofofindustrial
safetyconsidering

Development of forcing engine for safety engineering
Safety specialists
DB & training
general fields, specific fields
Development of safety knowledge basis
common fields, specific fields

Development of safety engineering methods
common fields, specific fields
Hazards prevision methods
Safety evaluation methods
Risk prevention methods
Accidents analysis methods

Development of forcing engine for safety engineering
Safety specialists
Tools : Safety knowledge basis, Safety engineering methods
Objects : Hazards prevision, Safety evaluation,
Safety promotion methods (prevention, reduction)

Social contribution of safety engineering

Fig.12 Development
forcing engine
for safetyengineering
Figure 12: Development
ofofforcing
enginefor safetyengineering

4.3 Social contribution of safety engineering
Figure 13 shows the social contribution of safety engineering.
Imparting safety education and training as general education for safety basis
and as education for safety specialist would contribute not only to industrial
safety but also to social safety. In our study, safety education and training
comprise an understanding of safety basis and development of safety culture(safety ethics, sensitivity to hazards, scientific discussion and decisions
based on benefit and risk), training imparted to citizens, and training safety
specialists to provide them with high safety knowledge, high safety
technologies and risk management abilities.
Imparting special knowledge on safety and safety engineering
methods would contribute mainly to industrial safety and the suggestion of a28

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

safety policy would benefit administration. Safety support would contributeto industrial safety, social safety, as well as administration.
Social contribution of safety engineering
Safety education and training
general education on safety basis
safety specialists training

Supply of special knowledge
on safety

Social safety

Industrial safety
Supply ofsafety engineering methods

Administration

Suggestion ofsafety policy

Safety support

Fig.13Socialcontribution ofof
safetyengineering
Figure 13:
Socialcontribution
safetyengineering

5. SUMMARY
In this paper titled “Industrial Safety in the 21st Century and Role of Safety
Engineering,” some recent industrial safety problems have been cited andsome background has been provided from the viewpoints of change inhuman perspective and social situations and a change in the industrial
structure.
Accordingly, a proposal for industrial safety in the 21st century has
been put forth.
In order to ensure industrial safety in the 21st century, influential
factors on the recent industrial safety problems have been listed and aconcept of safety power—which indicates the safety level of plants and iscomposed of potential safety basis and safety culture—has been introduced
and discussed. In order to promote self-controlled safety, each concept ofsafety power, potential safety basis, and safety culture and their evaluation
indicators should be discussed so that these concepts can be established, anda system for evaluating and intensifying safety power must be constructed.
In addition, it has also been shown that safety engineering should be
developed and established so that it can promote industrial safety; further,
the systemization of safety engineering and the construction of the basis ofsafety engineering should be discussed.
It is expected that safety engineering would help the improvement of
not only industrial safety but also social safety.

Industrial Safety in The 21st Century and Role of Safety Engineering29

October 2008, Beijing, China

30

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

MONITORING OF URBANSUSTAINABILITY BY USE OFREMOTE SENSINGYOSHIFUMI YASUOKA
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan+81-29-850-2301
yyasuoka@nies.go.jp
ABSTRACTMonitoring of urban infrastructure and environment is the first step inthe proper management of urban system. However, it requires themeasurement of a wide variety of parameters covering physical, chemical,
biological, and geographical aspects. Furthermore, it needs to consider
extensive parameters encompassing the local to regional scale, orsometimes to global scale within short- to long-term periods. It is, therefore,
not easy to monitor these varied parameters and to establish a databasesystem for urban safety and sustainability using conventional ground survey
methods alone. Remote sensing from space is expected to provide a new tool
for regularly observing a wide range of variables over extensive areas.
Development of remote sensing technology has been very rapid, andtoday various types of remotely sensed data are available, ranging fromhigh spatial resolution data for local monitoring to coarser wide coveragedata for regional/global surveillance. Information from remote sensing,
however, has not necessarily been fully utilized yet. In this paper, newtechnologies in remote sensing are surveyed, and their applications are
introduced, with emphasis on the assessment of urban infrastructure andenvironment.
1. INTRODUCTION
Sustainable urban system requires sound infrastructure and soundenvironment. Degradation of infrastructure and environment, however, has
become a critical social problem in most cities of the Asian countries during
the past decade. On a local scale, we have experienced building collapse or
dangerous concrete block falls in railway tunnels or under highway bridges
due to concrete disintegration. Also on a regional scale we have been
suffering from air pollution, water quality degradation or heat island
phenomena. Furthermore nowadays global warming or global scale climatechange may cause new types of urban risks threatening people living incities.
Assessment of urban infrastructure and environment is an essential
component in realizing urban sustainability. However, it requires the31

October 2008, Beijing, China

measurement of a wide variety of parameters covering physical, chemical,
biological, social and geographical aspects. Furthermore, it needs toconsider extensive parameters encompassing the local to regional scale, orto global scale.
Remote sensing is an observation tool to identify objects, measure or
analyze their characteristics without directly contacting them. By using
aircraft or satellite as an observation platform it enables us to measurevarious parameters over extensive areas at a regular interval. It is expectedthat a wide variety of urban parameters may be measured spatially andregularly over extensive areas by remote sensing.
This paper introduces new technologies in remote sensing, and theirapplications with emphasis on the monitoring urban infrastructure andenvironment.
2. REMOTE SENSING
2.1 SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS
Remote sensing utilizes electromagnetic radiation as a medium for themeasurement. The measurement principle in remote sensing is based on thefact that all matter reflects, absorbs, transmits, and emits electromagnetic
radiation in a unique way with respect to wavelength. These uniqueproperties in matter with respect to electromagnet radiation are called its“spectral characteristics (spectral signatures)”, and objects are identified,measured, and analyzed based on their different spectral signatures.
2.2 REMOTE SENSOR
In remote sensing, the reflected or emitted electromagnetic radiationfrom a target is detected by a device called a “remote sensor”. Cameras orscanners are typical examples of these. A vehicle to carry the sensor iscalled a “platform”, and aircraft or satellites are usually used. Human eyes
can only detect a specific range of electromagnetic radiation called the“visible range”. However, remote sensing can utilize a wide variety ofwavelengths covering the visible, near-infrared, and infrared to microwave
ranges with various types of sensors. Utilization of different wavelengths
enables the monitoring of various types of environmental parameters. For
example, vegetation is characterized primarily in the near-infrared range,
whereas thermal characteristics are distinguished in the thermal infrared
wavelength band.
The performance of a remote sensor is determined by various
specifications including spectral range, spectral resolution, spatial
resolution, observation width (swath), or observation frequency. Different
types of remote sensor have been developed with respect to these
specifications. Table 1 summarizes the properties of typical remote sensors
used for environmental and disaster monitoring. High spatial resolution
sensors such as LANDSAT TM, SPOT HRV, or IKONOS are used for local
or regional observation, whereas low spatial resolution, but wide coverage

32

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

and high observation frequency sensors such as NOAA/AVHRR,ADEOS/OCTS, and TERRA/MODIS are used for continental or global
scale vision.
Table 1 Specifications of typical remote sensors.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Satellite� � � � � �

Sensor� �

Wavelength(�m or GHz)

No. of bands

Spatial Res.
(m)

Swath Cycle
(km)
(day)

30
10-20
20
18
18
1000
8 � 16700
15 � 90250-1000
1-4
10
2.5

180
60
100
75
75
2700
80
1400
60
2330
11
70
70/35

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------LANDSAT TM
0.45-12.5
7
SPOT
HRV
0.50-0.89
4
ERS-1
SAR
5.3 GHz1
JERS-1OPS
0.52-0.86
4�SAR
1.275 GHz
1NOAA
AVHRR 0.58-12.5
5
ADEOS
AVNIR
0.40-0.92
4�OCTS
0.40-12.5
12TERRA
ASTER 0.52-11.3
14
�
MODIS
0.66-14.2
36
IKONOS Pan/MSS Vis./Near-infrared 1/4
ALOS
AVNIR-2 0.42-0.89
4PRISM
0.52-0.77
1

17
26
35
44
�
0.5
41
�
16
�
11
46
�

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.3 PARAMETERS BY REMOTE SENSING
Urban parameters expected to be measured by remote sensing are
ranging from physical, chemical, biological to socio/economic variables.
They are also from practical/operational level to research level. Examples ofparameters are summarized as follows.
� Practical level
Land: land surface temperature, topography (DEM), 3-dimensional
structures of buildings and vegetations, land cover classification, vegetation
classification, vegetation index (NDVI, etc.), soil index, human habitats
Water: surface temperature, water quality including suspended
sediment and chlorophyll, surface wind-vector, sea-ice �
Atmosphere: temperature, water vapor, cloud
Others: precipitation
� Research level
Land: detail land cover classification, detail vegetation classification,soil type classification, soil moisture, LAI (Leaf Area Index), biomass, treeheight, canopy structures, NPP (Net Primary Productivity), CO2 flux (NEP:Net Ecosystem Exchange), chlorophyll/lignin/cellulose in tree canopy
Water: chlorophyll (high accuracy), algae, pCO2
Atmosphere: CO2, CH4, water vapor, CLO, NOx, SOx, O3, aerosols
It should be noted that remote sensing may provide spatial distributionof these parameters from a local scale to a regional or a global scale withvarious sensors shown in Table1. Conventional ground-based observation
methods may provide only point-based information.

Monitoring of Urban Sustainability by Use of Remote Sensing

33

October 2008, Beijing, China

3. NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN REMOTE SENSING(1) High-Spatial Resolution Observation
Spatial resolution is one of the most important observation
performance factors in remote sensing. It has been dramatically improved in
the last 20 years, and, today, one-meter spatial resolution is realized insatellite sensors. From these images, for example, individual buildings ortree canopies can be identified from space. High spatial resolution
observation enables us to retrieve more detailed information on humansettlements, land surface characteristics, or topography from remotelysensed data.
(2) Hyper-Spectral Observation
The number of spectral channels in conventional remote sensors has
been limited to 10 or at most to several tens in satellite and airborne systems.
New hyper-spectral sensor systems have the capability of observing the land
surface using a couple of hundred channels. For example, the Hyperion on
EO-1 has 256 channels. Airborne sensor systems such as CASI and AVIRIS
also have more than 200 channels and their spectral resolution is as narrowas nanometers in wavelength. Data from such hyper-spectral sensors haveindicated the possibility of observing new urban parameters, including
vegetation water stress or detailed vegetation categories that could not be
observed by conventional sensors. Recently, new observation methods using
the hyper-spectral remote sensors have been developed to detect concretedegradation.
(3) Microwave Range Observation
With optical remote sensing we cannot observe the ground throughcloud or dense haze. Microwave remote sensing has an advantage in all
weather observations due to its longer wavelength. This observation
capability enables us to monitor land surface conditions regularly, even in
heavily clouded regions, including tropical or high latitude regions. A
synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a typical microwave sensor that enableshigh spatial resolution observation. Microwave remote sensing also has thecapability of monitoring precipitation and soil moisture.
(4) Three-Dimensional Observation
Three-dimensional (3-D) structure in urban area is one of the essential
information for the assessment of the environment and the extent of disaster.
The information derived may be used for base data in wind simulation, runoff modeling, or landscape analysis. Since urban infrastructure iscomplicated by buildings, roads, or trees, it is not easy to extract 3-D
information using conventional observation or survey methods alone. New
remote sensing technologies may provide details of 3-D structures with ahigh spatial resolution. Laser ranging observation, for example, enables us
to produce height distribution maps of buildings or trees.

34

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

4. APPLICATIONS OF REMOTESUSTAINABILITY MONITORINGSENSINGTO

URBAN

4.1 Local Scale Applications(1) Monitoring Of Concrete Degradation
Concrete degradation has become serious problems in Asian urban
areas. Recent years, for example in Japan, railway trains were damaged by
the fallen concrete blocks in tunnels. These were proved to be due toconcrete degradation. Spectral signatures observed by hyper-spectral remotesensing may provide key information on concrete degradation. Figure 1-2
shows the examples of spectrum for the degraded concretes due tocarbonation. Normal concretes (Figure 1) contain 25% of calcium hydroxide.
Concretes damaged by carbon dioxide (Figure 2) generates calcium dioxide
in its process. Absorption peak observed around 1450nm in normal concreteis hardly observed in degraded concretes. These characteristics indicate thatthe spectrum of concretes damaged by carbon dioxide is strongly affectedby the spectrum of calcium dioxide that is generated in its degradation
process.

reflectance(%)

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

1000
2000
wavelength(nm)3000

Figure 1: Spectrum of normal concretereflectance(%)

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

1000

2000

3000

wavelength(nm)Figure 2: Spectrum of degraded concrete by CO2

Monitoring of Urban Sustainability by Use of Remote Sensing

35

October 2008, Beijing, China(2) Urban Ladscape Simulation
Urban 3-D structure is one of the most essential factors that define thecharacteristics of urban sustainability. Distribution of buildings andvegetation play a key role in microclimate simulation, traffic navigation, or
landscape planning. Figure 3 demonstrates an example of an urban 3-D
image with buildings and trees in the Shinjuku area of Tokyo. In thisapplication, an urban 3-D model is produced from the ALS data combinedwith high spatial resolution satellite data (IKONOS). Heights are extracted
from the ALS data, and land-cover information including buildings andtrees is extracted from IKONOS data (Guo, 2003). The trees in Figure 3 aresimulated by a growth model after identifying their position, canopy size,and species from both the IKONOS image and the ALS data. This model
enables us to simulate tree growth and conditions for the different seasons.
Here, the 3-D tree model is generated using Nat-FX and 3-D modelingsoftware. Nat-FX is a 3-D tree growth model developed based on the Atelierof Modeling of Architecture and Plants (AMAP) (Yasuoka, 2003).

Figure 3: Urban 3-D model produced from IKONOS satellite image andairborne laser scanner (ALS) data. Trees are simulated using a growthmodel after identifying tree positions and species from remotely sensed data.
4.2 REGIONAL SCALE APPLICATIONS(1) Urban Heat Island
The heat island effect is a typical phenomenon in urban areas
associated with an increase of population and human activity. It may havenegative impacts on the physical environment and social infrastructure in
most mega-cities in the near future. Monitoring and prediction of a heatisland, however, is not easy since the thermal conditions of urban areas are
not visible. Remote sensing has provided an observation tool to monitor
land surface temperature (LST) and to assess heat island conditions in cities
using infrared wavelengths. Figure 4 illustrates heat island conditions in
Asian cities observed from MODIS data. Statistical analysis indicated that
there is a strong correlation between land surface temperature and land
cover types (Hung, 2005).

36

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31(2) Monitoring Of Forest Fire
Forest fire gives serious impact to local and regional society. It affects
surrounding environment and human health. Establishing forest firemonitoring and forecasting system is crucial to decrease damages by fire
events and to decrease environmental and disaster risks in urban area.

BeijingShanghai

Seoul

Pyongyang
Tokyo

Figure 4: Land surface temperature maps over Asian cities observed from
MODIS data.
It is, however, not easy to develop practical forest fire monitoring
system since it requires near-real time observation over extensive areas. The
Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), the University of Tokyo (UT) has
developed and implemented forest fires monitoring system from MODIS
data (http://webmodis.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp). Figure 5 illustrates an example offorest fire map over East Asian region derived from MODIS data. The map
is revised everyday and is open on the above website.

Figure5: An example of forest fire maps observed from MODIS data
(http://webmodis.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp)

Monitoring of Urban Sustainability by Use of Remote Sensing

37

October 2008, Beijing, China

5. CONCLUSIONS
According to the United Nations forecast, in the middle of this century, thepercentage of population in urban areas will be more than 60%, and the total
number of mega-cities in the world will exceed 22. Sustainability will be a
critical factor in urban management and the monitoring of urban
sustainability is a first step towards managing urban systems. It is not easy,
however, to collect adequate information and survey data over extensive
areas periodically and regularly. [Remote sensing has potential advantages in urban monitoring that aresummarized as follows:# it does not disturb the object in measurement# it can cover extensive areas in a short time
# it can measure parameters in the same spatial and temporal scales# it can cover land, ocean, and atmosphere where sometimes wecannot make direct observations
Development of remote sensing technology has been very rapid, andtoday various types of remotely sensed data are available, ranging from highspatial resolution data for local monitoring to wide coverage data forregional/global monitoring. It is still difficult to realize operational andpractical monitoring only with remote sensing or only with groundobservation. It is expected to realize a practical monitoring system for urban
sustainability.
REFERENCES

Guo, T., Y. Yasuoka, Y. (2003): Reconstruction of Buildings from Satellite
Image and LIDAR Data, the 24th Asian Conference on Remote
Sensing and International Symposium on Remote Sensing (CD-ROM).
Hung T., Y. Uchihama, Y. Yasuoka (2006): Assessment with satellite dataof the urban heat island effects in asian mega cities, International
Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation 8, pp.3448.
Hirano, Y., Y. Yasuoka, T. Ichinose (2004): Urban climate simulation byincorporating satellite-derived vegetation cover distribution into amesoscale meteorological model, Theoretical and Applied
Climatology, 79, pp175-184.
Yasuoka,Y., Y.Yamagishi, T. Guo, T. Endo (2003): Extraction and 3D
Visualization of trees in Urban Environment, Proc. of the Third
USMCA Symposium, India.

38

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

THE RESTORATION PLAN OF
DUJIANGYAN AFTER THE GREATSICHUAN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
IN 2008
MIKIKO ISHIKAWA
The University of Tokyo, Department of Urban Engineeringishikawa@epd.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTOn May 12, 2008, Sichuan Earthquake had occurred, and 87,000
people died. On May 30, 2008, Chinese government announced to call forthe restoration plan for the city of Dujangyang, which was designated as
World Heritage City. 47 teams from all over the world expressed their will
to propose the plan, and ten teams were nominated. This paper shows theoutline of the reconstruction plan for Dujanyang, proposed by the teamconsisted of Tokyo University (Center for Sustainable Urban Regeneration),
Keio University and West-South University in China.
First of all, we carried out the extensive survey on the damage, wetook a field survey, also by utilizing IKONOS data, tried to clarify theoverall damage from community level to regional level. Second step was theevaluation of the present Master plan of Dujangyang. We studied the visionof historical city, and recalculated the population forecast.
Based on above review, we concluded that the existing trend of rapid
growth scenario was not adequate .We propose the three fundamental
concept for the restoration. � Immediate Strategies for securing sufferedpeople,� Change the growth formation of the future city from the spreadcity to the compact city,� Create the ecological city, by designating biotope
unit and connecting those units by green and water corridor.
Then, we proposed the actual plan, especially focusing, historical
district, heavy damaged district, agricultural village, and new natural
symbiosis city. Finally, we focused the restoration of community andproposed the process planning until 2015.
1. PURPOSE AND BACKGROUNDOn May 12, 2008, Sichuan Earthquake had occurred, and 87,000 people
died. Chinese government announced to call for the restoration plan for thecity of Dujangyan. 47 teams from all over the world expressed their will topropose the plan, and ten teams were nominated. This paper shows therestoration plan for Dujiangyan, proposed by the team consisted of Tokyo

39

October 2008, Beijing, China

University (Center for Sustainable Urban Regeneration), Keio University
and West-South Transportation University in China.
On June, 2008, our team had carried out the extensive survey of
Dujiangyan, including the status of damaged architecture and open spaces,
the place of refuges, transportation, and the present conditions and will of
refugees. Since the city office itself had been severely damaged, it was
impossible to have data from the municipality. Therefore, we used IKONOS
picture which was taken before the earthquake (1m, accuracy). By
comparing ALOS picture after the earthquake (2.5m, accuracy), we
identified the damaged buildings, and calculated the story of buildings andestimated the number of people who had lived there (Figure 1 and 2). By
accumulating this process one by one, we estimated the number of damagedbuildings and people. Also, we checked all the open spaces, including parks,
river side, woods, plaza, agricultural lands, and vacant spaces and made theextensive data base. Open spaces in emergency were very important, since
they became immediate refuges and it will become the fundamental
structure for establishing the safe city in future.

Figure 1 (Left): Dujiangyan before the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
Figure 2 (Right): Dujiangyan after 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
2. EVALUATION OF EXISTING MASTER PLAN
The next step which we carried out was the evaluation of existing masterplan in Dujiangyan, which was proposed in Feb. 2008, just before theearthquake and had not authorized yet. The population in 2008 was 680,000
and in this master plan, it was estimated that the population in 2050 would
become 1,200,000, almost double compared with the present population.
The new required urban areas would be 153 km2, since the national
standard of urban space per person was 120 m2.
In order to verify this estimation, our team analyzed the population
forecast model. Checking the population data in recent 10 years, it became
clear that natural growth of population in Dujiangyan was stable, and thefuture growth was highly dependent on incoming population. The major
source of this flow would be the commuting time between Dujiangyan and
Chéngd�. It was planned that the commuting train would be constructed in40

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

2008, and it would be opened in 2012. Considering this fundamental
changes, we estimated that the population in 2012 would be 710.000, and in
2020, it would be 800,000. Therefore, the population growth between 2008
and 2020 would be 200,000. Based on the Chinese government standards
for the restoration of the earthquake, the necessary space per person is 90
m2. Using the above standard, we calculated that the required new urban
spaces in 2020 would be 18 km2.
Figure 3 shows the existing condition of Dujiangyan, and Figure 4 isthe expanding pattern of the master plan. The most precious characteristics
of Dujiangyan are the relation between forest, city and agricultural land,
which have succeeded over 2000 years’ history. They are consisted fromnumerous water and canal system, utilizing the delicate differences oflandforms. If the city adopted this expanding master plan, it would
eventually destroy the structure of Double World Heritage City.
Therefore, we concluded that the restoration plan should not be theexpanding plan, but the city should choose the way toward the compact andsustainable city, which would also relieve the energy consumption. Figure 5
is the basic strategy of our restoration plan. We allocated the required
increase of 200,000 people and 18km2 urban areas, to three portions,
namely, the new town near Jyugen area, Seijyo mountain area, and theexisting city and agricultural villages.

Figure 3 (Upper left): Existing Condition of Dujiangyan
Figure 4 (Lower left): Master Plan in Feb.2008
Figure 5 (Right): The proposal of the Restoration Plan

The Restoration Plan of Dujiangyan after the Great Sichuan Earthquake Disaster in 200841

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 6 (Left): Garden cities (Ebenezer Howard, 1898)
Figure 7 (Right): Ecological City in the Restoration Plan (2008)
3. CONCEPT OF RESTORATION PLAN
We set up three main concepts for the restoration. The process of therestoration would take the long difficult way, therefore, it is essential toshare the common goal in the very starting point.
Concept 1: The restoration plan should be encourage refugees andprovide hopes for their future.
Concept 2: To seek the compact city in order to sustain the 2000
years’ assets of Double World Heritage City
Concept 3: To create the Ecological City as the ideal of the 21stCentury
The 20th century was the era of the expansion of cities. Figure 6 is themodification of the famous model of “Garden Cities”, proposed by Sir.
Ebenezer Howard in 1898. The model was consisted from major city andsurrounding garden cities and it was said, thus, created the region. However,since there exist no evident rules between city and country, the policy ofgreen belt which would support the regional structure did not work
effectively in many countries. Figure 7 shows the proposal of new relation
between city and country. As we have investigated that in Dujiangyan, there
exists the historical structure of water system which had supported thisregion for 2000 years. We thought the future structure of city and country in
the restoration plan should be based on this structure. We call it “EcologicalCity”. Figure 8 shows the principals of the restoration plan, green, water andculture.

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Figure 8: The principals of restoration plan
4.

RESTORATION PLAN

The restoration plan is made from the following four points. The first is theoverall plan of the city of Dujiangyan as “Ecological City”. The second is
the restoration of the central area where the historical heritage exists. The
third is the agricultural village where new policies have been expected
before the earthquake. The fourth is the community planning for actualizing
the above plans.
4.1 Ecological City
Considering the restoration process in Japan, after 1923 Kanto
earthquake and 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, open space planning isessential for securing the safe city for future generation. In emergency, it
was the open space where people evacuated and spent the temporary,sometimes long stay before they found the way for ordinal life. If the city
would built up disorderly, it becomes impossible to change the urban
structure. Therefore, in the beginning of the restoration, the proper open
space planning should be introduced.
As I mentioned in data analysis, we carried out the extensive survey
on existing open spaces in Dujiangyan. Figure 9 shows the result of ouranalysis. Figure 10 is the map of damaged areas. We combined those maps
and identified the priority for open space planning, then proposed theoverall open space system. We call it “Park System of Dujiangyan”(Figure 11).
We also analyze the quality of natural environment and estimate 37
different bio-tope units. Since in the west of city, there exist huge forests
which are designated as Natural World Heritage. It is important to establish
ecological corridor from forest to city. For enriching bio-diversities, theconsideration of the function is not enough. Figure 12 shows the basic mapof bio-diversities which will become the guideline for “Ecological City”.

The Restoration Plan of Dujiangyan after the Great Sichuan Earthquake Disaster in 200843

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 9 (Left): Analysis of Existing Open Space
Figure 10 (Right): Damaged Area by 2008 Sichuan Earthquake

Figure 11 (Left): Proposed Park System
Figure 12 (Right): Biotope Map for Ecological City
4.2 Restoration of Historic Heritage
It is the urgent issue that how to restore the historic heritage, since it is
the major resources of economic incomes. Dujiangyan was established as
the origin of canal system which has been providing water to Sichuan Flatsover 2000 years. Figure 13 shows the structure of the original city. It was
surrounded by the wall, but few of them remained. Most of the buildings
received damages, but careful restoration policies should be introduced
since the number of historic assets was very limited.

Figure 13: Analysis of Historic District

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Our proposal is the restoration plan should be combine the existing
three separate historic sites altogether, and create new World Heritage Park.
By introducing new public transportation system, the old city and present
lower park will become the real core of the city. Also, providing the safe
pedestrian networks to the upper park, it will produce another attractivenessto the city (Figure 14).

Figure 14: Proposed Site Plan of Historic District and World Heritage Park
4.3 Agricultural Village Restoration
How to renovate the agricultural village is another difficult issue. It
was the basic theme in this region before the earthquake. We carried out theinvestigation on the agricultural village, and clarified the structure of thescattered village pattern, consisted from canal system, rice fields, forests andsmall villages. Along the main street, we introduced the civic facilities, suchas schools, new agricultural industries and new housing. Surrounding thiscivic center, the new program of agricultural-tourism is proposed. In
addition to this, we proposed low-cost sewer system using new technology,
and circulate waste materials to the resources of the bio fertilizer (Figure 15)

Figure 15: The restoration plan of agricultural villages

The Restoration Plan of Dujiangyan after the Great Sichuan Earthquake Disaster in 200845

October 2008, Beijing, China

4.4 Community Planning
We proposed the new concept of “Water City Community Unit” as thebasic component of the restoration. It is a community which is enclosed bycanals, having 8,000—15,000 people. The size and structure of thiscommunity unit is proposed, reflecting the actual formation of urban
features in Dujiangyan (Figure 16, Table.1). In the center of this community
unit, the existing narrow canal will become the central, linear common
space, and many activities will be gathered into this space (Figure 17). It is a
new model of Neighborhood Unit. Each community units will be connectedwith public transportation.
We also proposed the process planning of the restoration. According
to the hearing of refugees which we carried on June 2008, many people
wanted to return to the same community where they lived. “On site, andContinuous Living in the Same Place” (OCLS) is our principal for the
restoration. Since in Japan, we had hard experiences that many elder people
died lonely in the isolated temporary house, even though they had survived
from the disaster of earthquake. We proposed to build the temporary
housing within the same community where people lived, and developed theprogram which would be enable the gradual transition from temporary topermanent houses. This program would provide hopes for the future, which
are the most important goals of the restoration.

Figure 16 (Left): Water City Community Unit
Table 1 (Right): Population of Water City Community Unit

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Figure 17: Image of Water City Community
5. PROCESS OF RESTORATION
Figure 18 shows the process of the restoration. In order to proceed therestoration project, it is necessary to establish the corporative community
association, supported by municipality, firms and professional planners.
They will collect the demand of refugees and propose the actual restoration
plan altogether. In a process of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
Disaster in 1995, a number of similar associations were set up, and it
became the real engine of the accomplishment of the restoration.
Finally, in this paper, the author discussed the fundamental structureof future, safe city. At this point, our team from Center for Sustainable
Urban Regeneration in Tokyo University is continuing to work on theidentification of damaged buildings, the way of restoration, the existing
conditions of temporary housings, and the creation of park system.

The Restoration Plan of Dujiangyan after the Great Sichuan Earthquake Disaster in 2008

47

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 18: Process of Restoration
REFERENCES
The Center for Sustainable Urban Regeneration in Tokyo University, Keio
University, Graduate School of Media and Governance, The
Architectural Dept. of West-South Transportation University in China,
July 2008. The Restoration Plan of Dujianyan after the Great Sichuan
Earthquake Disaster in 2008

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COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER
MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE
RICHARD JAEHNE
Illinois Fire Service Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
11 Gerty Dr., Champaign, IL 61820, USA
Jaehne@fsi.uiuc.edu
ABSTRACTThis paper describes a list of core competencies that have been
identified for effective disaster response and the management and response
procedures of a type 3 incident in USA, taking 2008 flood in Illinois as an
instance. Based on the concept of National Incident Management System(NIMS) and Incident Command System (ICS), Incident Management Teams(IMTs) were trained and established in Illinois. They were deployed into
various positions to assist the governmental organizations at different levels
in planning, commanding, decision making, etc.
1. INTRODUCTION
During the past century, societies and nations have struggled to define andimplement effective, comprehensive policies, programs and actual
capabilities to respond to both natural and man-made disasters. This paper
presents an overview of some of the key disaster management response
challenges that must be addressed and a short case study on how a newly
developed and implemented national incident system provided for an
integrated and effective national, state, regional and local response to major
flooding in the United States Midwest this year.
Many factors have added to the complexity and potential impacts ofdisasters, including the growth of: populations and urban densities,
interconnectivity of global economies, demand for robust power andcommunications infrastructure, effects of climate change on the occurrence
andintensityofnaturaldisastersuchasfloods,hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and earthquakes; as well as the seemingly
endless human carnage from conflict and crime.
A century ago, disaster response was routinely left to those mostaffected to “take care of themselves” for weeks until aid and assistancecould arrive. Ongoing wars and conflict led to the organization of civil
defense teams of local citizens, backed up by military forces often days or
weeks after the disaster occurred. Today, citizens around the globe learn ofdisasters as they are happening. They expect and demand immediate,
comprehensive response; yet governments still struggle to “catch up” to thedisaster, prioritize requirements and coordinate response.
In the United States following events of 9/11/2001 and Hurricane
Katrina (2004), a national effort has been undertaken to create a single
National Incident Management System (NIMS) that connects community49

October 2008, Beijing, China

leaders, responders and citizens locally to state, interstate and federal
assistance before, during and after a disaster. The system demands thatplanning, mitigation, response and recovery be integrated within that system,
rather than operating as four separate, often disconnected systems. Recent
Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are a testimony to the effectiveness of thiseffort and the challenges that remain.
2. COMMON UNDERSTANDING ON DISASTER
Disasters can be divided into different categories based upon their source;
however, there are several key factors to human survival and the reductionof human loss of life, which are common to all disaster management efforts:
� The amount of warning time available for evacuation and staging
of response.
� When disaster strikes without warning, the ability of citizens andresponders in the immediate area to act to save lives before
outside assistance arrives.
� Prevention of disease following disasters.
� Timely identification and response to secondary threats such as
hazardous materials release, damaged transportation infrastructure
critical to evacuation and response, landslides and related
flooding.
� Coordination of massive, diverse relief assistance that descends
on a disaster area from around the globe.
The reality of disaster response is that most lives are saved by one offour things:
1) The effective mitigation of known threats to human safety frompast disasters, including both the development andimplementation of building and infrastructure standards androbust evacuation planning and response.
2) The ability of citizens and responders in the immediate vicinity ofthe disaster impact area to act before, during and immediately
after a disaster strikes. In reality, 9 out of 10 lives at risk in thefirst days of a disaster are saved by them.
3) The ability federal, state and regional governments have to define,prioritize and coordinate the deployment of critically neededcapabilities from both public and private sources to meet theimmediate and secondary threats to human safety and to facilitate
recovery and rebuilding. This includes robust all-hazard, allsource intelligence / information fusion to identify and predict
threats.
4) The ability to prevent disaster-related disease through proactive
preventative medical efforts, provision of safe water and food, ϝtemporary shelter, and evacuation, as required. For every one whodies in the initial disaster at least 10 can be saved througheffective preventative medical programs.

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3. 2008 FLOOD DISASTER RESPONSE
Illinois is a river state. Lying between the Great Lakes, the Mississippi andOhio Rivers, Illinois is surrounded and crisscrossed by major bodies ofwater, which carry the annual rain and snow-melt runoff of nearly half ofAmerica’s land mass. The 2008 spring rains and winter runoff inundated
these rivers generating a flood that migrated down the rivers throughout theMississippi and Ohio River basins. A similarly “perfect storm” ofconditions occurred in the spring and summer of 1993 resulting in some $18
billion in damage and ranking as the worst flood disaster in United States
history.

Figure 1: Sketch map of Illinois in US
The 2008 flood response built upon the lessons learned in 1993 andfrom the Illinois Terrorism Task Force (ITTF) created in 2000 to integrate
planning, mitigation, response and recovery efforts. As a result, criticalgroups worked together before and during the flood, to reduce loss of lifeand property. These included: (1) local public and private community
leaders, (2) first responders representing emergency management, fire, law
enforcement, emergency medical, and public works each operating within arobust “mutual aid” response system, (3) Illinois State government led by
the Illinois Emergency Agency (IEMA), which encompassed all stateagencies in a coordinated planning and response system, (4) federal
government agencies coordinated through the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) region and a single Federal Coordinating
Officer appointed by the President, (5) private sector and non-governmentorganizations such as the Red Cross integrated with government response.
While the 2008 flood did not have the duration or level of damage of the1993 flood, the integrated emergency planning and direction of all criticalactions reduced the actual and potential impacts. Prior to the flood, FEMA
and IEMA worked together to conduct a critical needs and gap analysis of
the most critically required and requested assistance. Levee augmentation,
at risk critical infrastructure and evacuation modeling were conducted.
Essential equipment and supplies were moved into safe staging areas near
the potential flood impact areas in order to be available on short notice.

Comprehensive Disaster Management and Response51

October 2008, Beijing, China

Self-contained and self-sufficient mobile command, control andcommunications assets that had been designed and developed by the ITTF
were quickly deployed into the flood area to provide uninterrupted incident
command infrastructure and continuous connectivity from local throughregional, state and federal commanders. The state established an Area
Command Center in the flood area that provided a base for all levels ofcommand to coordinate their activities with local leaders and responders.
3.1 Response under NIMS
Under the National Incident Management System (NIMS), commandand control of a disaster is established and maintained at the local level
whenever possible, while state and federal authorities establish command
authority to direct state and federal assets to support local response. While
this ensures that locally elected officials retain the authority vested in themby citizens, it can overwhelm the ability of these officials in a disaster.
NIMS establishes both the process and structure for intra-state, inter-stateand federal government assistance. A weak link is often the ability of local
officials to coordinate and direct the extraordinary amount of required
assistance provided to them and to coordinate with neighboring officials in
nearby communities. In 1993, the ability of local communities to establish a
unified command approach to disaster planning and response had been
identified as an area of concern.

Federal, Worldwide
Unified Command
Augmentation
Statewide Deployable
Unified Command
Augmentation
Regional Deployable
Unified Command
Augmentation

Local
UnifiedCommand

Local
Incident
CommandType 1

Federal
Direction

Significant
National WMD
Event

Type 2Significant
State WMD
Event

State Command

Type 3Significant
Regional
Event

Incident
Management
Teams

Type 4
Local Unified Command

Type 5 / Other
Local Individual Public Safety Command

Significant
Local
Event
Routine
Local
Event

Figure 2: Triangle of response in NIMS
The statewide Illinois Terrorism Task Force worked with local, stateand federal partners to identify individual first response officers fromemergency management, fire, law enforcement, and emergency medical
disciplines in local communities who were capable of deploying to adisaster to help establish and operate a unified command system with local
officials. These individuals would be formed into Incident Management
Teams (IMT), trained to use the structured NIMS planning process fordisaster management and available for immediate deployment wheneverdisaster struck. Since their organization, IMT’s have been activated anddeployed in support of tornado, flood and school shooting incidents.

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To assist in the development of the Incident Management Teams(IMT’s), the Illinois Fire Service Institute hosted national training anddeveloped a series of courses that brought together the disaster response
leaders of whole communities to develop a unified planning response based
upon the new National Incident Management System (NIMS). Importantly,
this training placed students into the roles of the IMT staff and presented
them with several different disaster scenarios. Building upon these local
efforts, IMT’s were formed from a group of individuals hand-picked bytheir communities and response disciplines to help fill the planning andcoordination gap between local and state emergency management. IMT
members were trained to use an all-hazards incident planning system thatwould assist and augment local incident management teams, rather than toreplace them.
Each IMT was organized around 8 key positions and used a structured
planning process to plan for and direct all agencies operating in a specificarea during a specific operational period. Each IMT had an Incident
Commander, who provided policy direction and connectivity to local andstate leaders. A core staff was formed around the key leadership positionsof Operations, Planning, Logistics and Finance who used pre-establishedforms and a standardized planning process to plan and direct all response
activities. Special staff were also provided to focus on Public Information,
Safety and Liaison with outside organizations. The IMT structure andplanning process has been used to coordinate wildland firefighting activities
over vast areas for decades. Now this same structure was being applied to
all hazards.
Type 3 Incident Management TeamCOMMAND(Unified - Fire, Law, EMS, Public Health)
SAFETYPUBLIC INFORMATIONLIAISONOPERATIONS(includes Deputy Ops)
(Fire, Law, EMS, Public Health)

PLANNING(Includes Deputy Plans)(Fire, Law, EMS, Public Health)

LOGISTICS

FINANCE/ADMINISTRATION

Figure 3: Component of IMT
3.2 Deployment of IMT
During the 2008 flood response these teams were deployed in three
distinct ways. One IMT was activated to provide a long-range planning cellfor IEMA. They were part of the State Emergency Operations Center thatwas designated to coordinate statewide response efforts. This IMT focusedon looking at the gaps that might be developing between current operations
and evolving threats and capabilities beyond the immediate operational
period. In essence, this team was to focus their lens at the “maturation
point” of current decisions, taking into account the time delay between
decision and response and the ongoing dynamics of the flood and related

Comprehensive Disaster Management and Response

53

October 2008, Beijing, China

secondary threats. Road, rail and navigable transportation infrastructure,
economic damage loss forecasting and flood footprint for evacuation
decisions were examples of areas where the IMT was able to dedicate acurrent planning effort on a future-critical-point.
A second set of IMTs were deployed into the flood disaster area toassist the two State Area Command Teams established in the disaster areawith day-to-day planning and response coordination with communities
throughout the flood impact area. The individual IMT members werealready trained to augment the Operations, Plans and Logistics staffs and touse the NIMS planning process to generate an integrated single set of dailyorders to direct the activities of all response activities. This included thedevelopment and implementation of a comprehensive safety plan for all
those working to reinforce the levees, planning for emergency levee-related
evacuation contingencies, rerouting and repair of the transportation network,and contingency planning to restore river-based potable water service.
A third set of IMT’s were deployed into the areas directly impacted by
the flood, to assist and augment the local incident command organizations.
A founding principle of the IMT was that it was to integrate into and assist
rather than replace local command structures. Based upon this, the IMT
members were rapidly accepted by local commanders and integrated into
their command structures. During the development of the training courses
for the IMT’s, IFSI had designed and procured 3 sets of laptop computerbased “command and staff” suites that were pre-loaded with all of the NIMS
forms and planning documents. These were quickly deployed to support the
IMT staff and augment local command. Using these tools and thestandardized NIMS planning process IMT staff were able in hours todevelop and have ready to execute contingency plans for local evacuationand debris removal.
On lesser and greater-scale disasters Incident Management Teams are
only one example of how comprehensive emergency planning and response
has evolved in the United States. The value of organizing, training andequipping a key set of first responders from local communities to deploy insupport of other local communities in a disaster is proving to be aninvaluable and important addition to comprehensive emergency planningand response.
4. GAP ANALYSISIn October 2008, Illinois hosted the first national meeting of IncidentManagement Teams with the intent to share best practices and to help
provide a key component of the National Incident Management System.
Importantly, the meeting was sponsored by Northern Illinois University in
DeKalb, Illinois who received IMT support for a campus shooting and masscasualty incident in 2008. The meeting was also supported by both FEMA
and the Illinois Terrorism Task Force as an opportunity to expand the IMTconcept nationwide.
In a broader sense, FEMA and the United States government areembracing the requirement for robust collaboration and coordination withstate and locals in all phases of disaster management. At a recent

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conference of all emergency managers in Illinois, the FEMA Region V
Director stated that all levels of emergency response must work together todevelop “core competencies” in planning, mitigation, response and recovery
from disasters. The near-term list of core competencies that requireconcerted effort include:� Incident Management
� Operational Planning
� Disaster Logistics
� Emergency Communications
� Service to disaster victims
� Continuity Programs
� Public Disaster Communications
� Integrated Preparedness
� Hazard Mitigation
Each item on the list will require local and state collaboration. Eachmust be translated into practical plans and operations. The IncidentManagement Team will play an important part in translating corecompetencies into effective disaster response.

Comprehensive Disaster Management and Response

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October 2008, Beijing, China

56

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

IMPORTANCE OF MAINTENANCETECHNOLOGIES TO KEEP EXISTINGSTRUCTURES SAFE TO THE PUBLICTAKETO UOMOTO
Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Professor, Shibaura Institute of Technology
3-7-5 Toyosu, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8548, Japanuomoto@sic.shibaura-it.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
Tremendous amount of structures have been built in recent years
throughout the world. These structures are important properties to thepeople as far as they are used by the people. Looking at the situation now
in our country, although the amount of the structures is tremendous, thesestructures are not always being maintained well by the public. Especially inJapan, due to natural hazards, such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, etc.,
and the change of the economy and politics, it is difficult to maintain all thestructures in convenient state. This paper explains how we have been
looking at the problem and maintains the existing structures especiallyreinforced concrete structures. The technologies related to maintenanceare also explained in the paper.
1. INTRODUCTION
Up till now in Japan, the economic growth was rapid in the period of 1960
� 1980. More than 100million cubic meters of concrete were used toconstruct the structures such as buildings, bridges, tunnels, dams, etc. tosupport the activities of Japanese people. As a result, these infrastructures
rapidly reached 50 years in service, and due to deterioration of the structures,
maintenance of these structures has become a major interest among theowners and the civil engineers.
On the other hands, population of Japan will reduce from now on
because of fewer babies in a family approximately 1.2 children per one
family. Although high technologies have been developed in recent years, it
is sure that fewer engineers have to take care of the huge amount ofstructures from now on, which has never experienced in the past. Due toreduction in the economical growth, the budget for both construction andmaintenance will be reduced in the future. The maintenance of existing
structures must be done with the following conditions: 1) rapid increasing of
the amount of existing structures reaching to the age of 50 years, 2) lessamount of engineers to maintain the structures, 3) less amount of budget canbe used to maintain the structures.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Although there are many hazards in each country, concrete structures
are expected to be safe for long period of time. Main hazards for the
structures in Japan are as follows:
1. Earthquake and volcanic action
2. Landslide and flood
3. Typhoons and strong wind
4. Fire and Thunder
5. Accidents
6. Terrorism
If the structure is deteriorated before the hazards, the structure mayeasily collapse and difficult to maintain the safety of the people. The Figure
1 shows an example of a collapsed pier during Hanshin Awaji Great
Earthquake. As shown in the photo, the pier was deteriorated to large extent
due to alkali aggregate reaction. Concrete is cracked severely and is justlike a bundle of concrete blocks.

Figure 1: Collapsed reinforced concrete pier affected by alkali aggregate
reaction
In order to keep the safety of urban area, it is important to study andinvestigate not only on hazards but also on durability aspects of existing
structures. Even a small amount of concrete spalling may cause traffic
accidents to large extent as we experienced in Sanyo-Shinkansen in 1999.
Considering these situations now, this paper explains what ishappening now in Japan and how we are dealing with the problems throughresearches and engineering.
2. GENERAL MAINTENANCE METHODS BEING USED UP TILLNOWThe maintenance of concrete structures has been done mostly by the ownersof the structures. In case of public structures, the ministries, etc. maintainthe structure after the structures are completed. For the time being, themethods for the maintenance differ according to the owners of the structures.
Although there are some differences, the main concept of the maintenancecan be summarized as follows (Uomoto and Misra, 2001):

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1. Periodic inspection and evaluation of deterioration degree
2. Detailed inspection and decision making
3. Repairing and strengthening of deteriorated structures
For periodic inspections, the inspectors inspect the structures visually,sometimes with the help of binoculars and hammers, once a year or once inseveral years according to the importance and time after the structure iscompleted. The inspectors are mostly trained engineers with experiences.
The detailed inspection is done when the estimated degree of deterioration
exceeds certain limit, or when some new phenomenon is found during theperiodic inspection. The detailed inspection is done by visual inspections
with the aid of non-destructive tests or taking core samples out from theinspected structure. The purpose of the inspection is to decide the cause of
the deterioration and also to evaluate whether repair and/or strengthening isneeded or not.
To repair or strengthen the existing structures, it is important to designand select sufficient methods and materials. The most popular repair
method for corrosion of steel bars due to carbonation is to eliminate thecarbonated concrete and replace it by new concrete and apply coatings withand without FRP sheets. But in case of steel corrosion due to chlorides fromthe surrounding environment, the highly chloride concentrated portion of
concrete are taken out, anti-corrosive treatment is applied to the surface ofthe bar, and polymer cement mortar is generally used to repair the concrete
before coating the concrete surface.
3. NEW STANDARD SPECIFICATIONS OF JSCE
After the investigations of many deteriorated concrete structures, theimportance of durability was fully recognized by the civil engineers. To
deal with the problem not only JSCE, AIJ, and JCI recommending methods
to deal with the problems but also the Ministries, and other authorities
started to propose practical counter measures to cope with the situation. As aresult, a large amount of researches has been done related to the durabilityof concrete structures including non-destructive inspection methods.
Among these authorities, the Concrete Committee of JSCE, theleading committee in the field of concrete in Japan, has published thetranslated version of “Standard Specifications for Concrete Structures-2002”
in English to deal with the problems of durability. A new version of theStandard Specification was published in the year 2007 in Japanese (JSCE,
2007a, 2007b and 2007c). The concept written in the specifications will
surely be adopted by other institutions.
The main proposals of the “Standard Specifications 2007” are thefollowing two items:
1) Propose a new method to design and construct new concrete
structures that can be used for specified lifetime without large amountof maintenance cost.
2) Propose an effective and economical system to maintain existing
concrete structures with small number of engineers and workers.

Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the Public

59

October 2008, Beijing, China

The concepts of the new Standard Specifications are briefly explainedin the following chapters.
3.1 Durability design of concrete structures for new structures
Performance-based durability design was introduced to “Standard
Specification of Concrete Structures” by the Concrete Committee of JSCEin the year 2000 and be translated to English version in 2005 (JSCE, 2005c).
Although durability of concrete structures was considered important in theprevious specifications, performance-based design method was not used.
The previous specifications described the importance of durability byproposing that the concrete structures are durable for a long time when
specified materials, mixes, covers, etc. are used. But these specifications
did not mention about the duration of service time, etc.
The proposed performance-based new durability design can besummarized as follows:
1. The concrete structure must be quantitatively checked whether the
structure possesses required performance within the designed period.
2. The degree of deterioration of the structure in service on specified
cause must be specified.
3. To maintain the structure above the specified degree ofdeterioration, the required performance must be specified.
To examine the performance on durability, a kind of limit state design
scheme was introduced for the durability of concrete structures. The
equation can be written as shown in Equation (1):

� i � Ad A

lim

� 1.0

(1)

where, Ad is designed performance of the structure at specified time
considering the specified deterioration cause, Alim is limit of theperformance of the structure, and �i is coefficient of the structure
considering the importance, etc.
Generally, performance of concrete has to be verified to satisfy therequired performance. Not only resistances against deterioration but alsomechanism properties of concrete have to be verified as shown below.
1. Compressive strength
2. Carbonation rate
3. Diffusion coefficient of chloride ions in concrete
4. Dynamic modulus of elasticity
5. Resistance to chemical attack
6. Resistance to alkali aggregate reaction
7. Coefficient of water permeability of concrete
8. Fire resistance
9. Adiabatic temperature rise
10. Drying shrinkage characteristics
11. Setting characteristic
The Figure 2 shows an example of the calculated result for minimum
cover thickness to prevent carbonation induced corrosion at different yearsof service for OPC concrete and BFSC concrete. As shown in the figure,60

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Concrete cover thickness (cm)

8�
�

OPC

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Service time
( Years )

6�
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cement���ratio (%)
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Concrete cover thickness (cm)the cover thickness required changes according to the type of cement to be
used, water-cement ratio of concrete, years of service and exposed condition(wet or dry) of the structure to be constructed. When the structure isdesigned for long period of time, the cover thickness may become too large,
and it is recommended to use other countermeasures such as Epoxy-coatedbars.
8�
Service time
(Years)100������������

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4�
�

2�

Wet environment����������������������
�����������������������

�

0�
��
40

Dry environment

��

��
50

��

60
��

��

70
��

Water
cementratio (%)
������
���

Figure 2: Calculated results of concrete cover according to JSCE Standard
Specification
3.2 Methods of maintenance newly proposed by JSCE
The methods used in the new Standard Specification are basically thesame as the conventional method. The differences are that the new method
requires maintaining the structure within their required performances
throughout their service life. Firstly, the listed below issues have to beclearly specified.
1. To maintain a structure, performances required for the structure
must be clearly defined.
2. The performances required for general structures are “safety”,“serviceability”, “hazards to the public”, “aesthetics and landscape” and“durability”.
And the basic principles of maintenance works are as follows:
1. Structures must be maintained according to a designatedmaintenance category by formulating a maintenance program toretain the performance within the specified tolerances throughout
their service life. And maintenance system includes adequate“initial inspection”, “deterioration prediction”, “inspection”,“assessment/judgment”, “remedial action”, and “record”.
2. To maintain a structure, in addition to the assessment andevaluation at the time of inspection, assessment and evaluationmust be made throughout the service life of the structure based on
prediction of deterioration.
3. To predict the deterioration, required performances of the structure
must be clearly defined, and also the design service life must be
made clear.
4. The records on design, construction, initial inspection,
deterioration prediction, periodical inspection, assessment and/or

Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the Public

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October 2008, Beijing, China��������������
Current
Amperage (mA/cm)

evaluation, and remedial actions must be kept throughout theservice life.
Standards for maintenance of concrete structure deteriorated bydifferent mechanisms are also discussed. The lists below are the standard
maintenance method published in this standard:
1. Standard maintenance method for carbonation induced
deterioration
2. Standard maintenance method for chloride induced deterioration
3. Standard maintenance method for frost attack
4. Standard maintenance method for chemical attack
5. Standard maintenance method for alkali aggregate reaction
6. Standard maintenance method for fatigue of RC slab of roadbridge7. Standard maintenance method for fatigue of RC beam of railway
bridgeIn detail for an example, the standard method for chloride induced
deterioration recommends the model to predict chloride ion diffusion,
progress of steel corrosion, and correction of the prediction. Also themethods of initial inspection, routine inspection, periodic inspection, anddetailed inspection as well evaluation and judgment method are also
discussed. Finally, recommendation of selection of remedial measurement
both of repair or strengthening is given also the information has to berecorded.
One of the difficulties is how to predict the degree of deterioration at
the end of their service life. There are several researches being done topredict the deterioration in numerical manner. In the published Standards,
several numerical prediction methods are introduced as references forstructures suffering cyclic fatigue loads, carbonation induced corrosion andchloride induced corrosion. In case of cyclic fatigue, S-N curves are used to
predict the service life. In case of carbonation induced and chloride induced
corrosion of steel bars, diffusion equations for carbon dioxide and chloride
are used to predict the degree of corrosion. Using these prediction methods,
deterioration degree can be estimated to certain degree. (See Figure 3) But
for other deterioration problems, which has not been studied numerically, aquantitative model has not been proposed yet. To deal with the problem, aqualitative method “Grading method” is introduced in the Standard.
����������������������������������

���Cathode

����

Crack

�
�����

days
���
days
���
����days

Anode

����
�����

year
��
years
��

����
�����
�

�

�
�
�
��
���������������
Distance (cm)����Figure 3: Quantitative prediction of corrosion in marine environment withcracks (Tsukahara et al., 2000)
62

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4.

PROBLEMS IN ACTUAL EXISTING STRUCTURES

When a civil engineer is asked by the owner to check the safety of an old
existing structure, one of the largest problems is that there are neither
drawings nor construction records of the structure available. No problem
may occur in case of important facilities, which is maintained with greatcare. But in case of normal structures, the owners do not know theimportance of these documents.

���� ��� � �� ������������ ���

�� �
�����

���
���

����� �� ��� ��� ���� ������������ �����

����� ��� �����

���������������� ����������� ��������
������

���

Figure 4: Re-designed reinforced concrete pier of a bridge (Okazaki, 2005)
To deal with the problem, NDI is not enough. Fortunately, ourstructures are not too old, and they are mostly designed and constructed by
the method specified by JSCE, AIJ or other associations. Considering these,
the only way is to re-design the structure again using the methodologies
used at the time of construction. Figure 4 shows an example of re-designed
bridge pier constructed about 35 years ago. From the figure, it is mucheasier for a civil engineer to check the safety of the structure under several
hazards. It will become more important for the owners and engineers tokeep these documents throughout the service life of a structure.
6. NON-DESTRUCTIVE INSPECTIONSNew Technologies for NDT are also developed. Among all I would like tointroduce some technologies developed by us.
6.1 Appearance and surface deterioration of concrete structures
When inspection of existing concrete is performed, the most essential
method is to inspect the structure visually. If the inspector is well trained,visual inspection is the most simple and economical method especially incase of periodic inspection. The problem is that visual inspection offers noobjective document, which can be compared in the next inspection by

Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the Public

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October 2008, Beijing, China

different inspector. To deal with the problem, sketches and photographs
have been used to record the inspected results.
Recently, digital still camera has been used for recording the inspected
results, such as distribution of cracks and honeycombs that can be seen byvisual inspection. The photographs taken by the digital still camera can beeasily mounted on a computer, the distorted portion can be modified,
especially the corners of the photograph. Also, the results of other inspected
data can easily mounted on the photograph.
Time

Table 1: Application of NDI for existing concrete structures
Items
Dimension

Measurement

Cross sectional
dimension
Just
after
construc Arrangement Concrete covertion
of steel
Bar spacing

Methods
Measure,Laser

Comments
Transit, When the structure isin the open air
Ultra-sonic, Impact When a part of the
echo,
Radar
structure is embedded

Radar,
Electro- Surface bars only
magnetic, X-ray
Radar,
Electro- Surface bars only
magnetic, X-ray
Surface bars only
reinforcement Bar diameter
Electro-magnetic
methodStructure
Overall stiffness Oscillation test
Amplitude, frequency
Appearance Deterioration
Visual inspection, Stain, cracks,
PhotographDefects
Digital still camera, Including honeycomb,
Thermograph�
cold joints
�Surface�
Voids inside and at the
Defects
Sonic,
Thermograph,Radar
U-sonic,
X-ray, back of the structure�Inside�Impact echo
Stress &Deformation(Mac Measure, Transit,
Laser
ro)
StrainDeformation(Micr Dial gauge, Straingaugeo)Vibration
Acceleration
Sensor, LVDT
Laser deformation
measurement
After
StressMoldgauge,
Optical sensor
several Strength &Concrete strength Core sample test
General method
years of Stiffness
Rebound hammer, Problem of accuracy
Pull-out test
usage
Modulus ofCore sample test
Elasticity
Ultra-sonic velocity
Cracks &Distribution
Digital still camera,
Thermograph
Spalling
Crack width
Digital still camera, Direct measurement
Thermographpossible
Crack depth
Ultra Sonic
Effect of bars

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Time

Items

Diffusion
Depth

Permeability
SteelCorrosion
Note:

Measurement
Cracking

Methods
Comments
Acoustic Emission Continuous measurement
required
Carbonation
Core sample test
Chlorides
Core sample test
Analysis by core
Acids
Core sample test
samples
Other substances Multi-spectrum
Limited to concrete
methodsurface
Permeability
On-sitepermeability test
Location
Natural potential
Location at that time
Corrosion degree Natural potential, periodic measurement
Electric
current required
analysisindicates application of NDI.

Thermograph is another valuable tool. When any void exist close to
the surface of concrete structure, they can easily detected by using
thermograph. The tool looks the same with digital still camera but the
information we can obtain is different. When a void with certain size exists
close to the surface, due to sun light, etc., surface temperature of concrete
becomes slightly higher (less than 1 degree in most cases) than thesurroundings. As a result, the voids in concrete can be easily detected asshown in Figure 5.
64.7
54.8
44.1
33.5
23.4

Detected void by thermograph

Figure 5: Thermograph of concrete wall with void underneath
6. 2 Detection of voids and reinforcing steel bars
In case of old concrete structures, it is quite difficult to obtain detailed
drawing of reinforcements. Both electro-magnetic method and radarsystems are often used to clarify the arrangement and location of reinforcing
steel bars within concrete structure or to measure the cover to the bars.
Radar system is often used to measure the cover thickness of thereinforcing bars and location of voids. The microwave transmitted fromradar reflects at the surface of concrete, steel bars or voids. The timedifference is used to measure the depth of the target.

Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the Public

65

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 6: Inspection of void in concrete under steel reinforcements
An example of Radar inspection apparatus, available now in Japan,
give the result as shown on the left side of Figure 6. But it is difficult tofind out the inspected results by normal engineers. In our laboratory, a new
method is developed to display the results as shown in the right side of the
figure 3. These developments are required to utilize NDT for evaluation.
3.3 Detailed inspection of concrete
X-ray is used to detect voids, defects and bar arrangements in concrete.
The results can easily be understood by civil engineers. When more than 2
photographs are taken at different locations, three-dimensional information
can be obtained. If high energy X-rays can be used, a detailed inspection
can be done as shown in Figure 7. The only problem is that x-rays areharmful for human beings, animals, plants, etc., and it is difficult to use
high-energy X-rays at field. Normally, with compact apparatus, thethickness of concrete is limited to less than 30cm in order to obtain goodquality measurements.

Figure 7: Detection of steel bar arrangement in concrete using High energy
X-ray CT/DR

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3.4 Multi-Spectral Inspection of concrete
Near-infrared spectral imaging system was introduced in order todetect distribution or concentration of deterioration factors remotely. Thissystem consists of near-infrared irradiation equipment, imaging
spectroscope and near-infrared CCD camera. This system consists of nearinfrared irradiation equipment, imaging spectroscope and near-infrared
CCD camera. Dispersed near-infrared rays through the spectroscope can bereceived in each wavelength by light-sensitive element on CCD camera.
Detection of chloride penetration was also attempted using the system.
Figure 8 shows spectral image of 2266nm and result of EPMA analysis(Target: Cl). Cement paste specimen was soaked in salt water, so chloride
was penetrated form its surface. Chloride containing cement paste absorbs
near-infrared light of 2266nm, so high chloride concentration area appears
dark.
Salt water
Salt water

Salt water

Salt water

Salt water

Crack

Salt water
Salt water
Figure 8: Spectral image (Left) and result of EPMA analysis (Right)(by Dr. H. Kanada)
6. CONCLUDING REMARKS
Engineering is not always complete, and further research works are needed.
To sustain existing structures, durability of the structure is important. One
good method is to construct durable structures, but for the existing
structures maintenance is the only way to deal with the problem. Althoughconcrete committee of JSCE has set up a good system for maintenance ofexisting concrete structures, there are still many things to be done: not only
researches but also education to the students and engineers about durability
and maintenance. I hope this paper may become a help to the concrete
engineers of the world who are trying to design, construct and maintainconcrete structures.
REFERENCES
Concrete Committee of JSCE, Standard Specifications for Concrete
Structures-2007 “Design”. JSCE, Tokyo.
Concrete Committee of JSCE, Standard Specifications for Concrete

Importance of Maintenance Technologies to Keep Existing Structures Safe to the Public

67

October 2008, Beijing, China

Structures-2007 “Materials and Construction”. JSCE, Tokyo.
Concrete Committee of JSCE, Standard Specifications for Concrete
Structures-2007 “Maintenance”. JSCE, Tokyo.
Okazaki, S., 2005. Development of monitoring system for RC bridge basedon restoration design method. Thesis submitted to the University ofTokyo for Master of Engineering degree.
Tsukahara, E., Koyama, R., Hoshino, T., and Uomoto T., 2000. Estimation
Method of Corroded Portion of Reinforcing Steel Bar by Natural
Potential Measurement. Non-destructive Testing in Civil Engineering
2000, Elsevier.
Uomoto, T., and Misra S., 2001. Role of Engineers to Improve Quality ofConcrete Structures. Proceedings of EASEC-8, Singapore.
Park S.K. et al: Estimation of the Volume of Three-Dimensional Subsurface
Voids by Microwave Polarization Method, pp.13-24, JSCE No.592/V39, 1998.5
Izumi S. et al: Application of High Energy X-ray CT/DR to NonDestructive Testing of Thick Concrete Structure, 3rd Non-destructive
Symposium using X-rays, 1999 .11

68

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in AsiaDISASTER MITIGATION FOR
INHABITANTS OF MEGA CITIESTOSHIBUMI SAKATA
Research and Information Center, Tokai University, andAdvanced Earth Science and Technology Organization, Japan
sakata@aesto.or.jp
ABSTRACTThis paper proposes mitigation measures for the potential disasters
faced by mega cities. A growing number of cities throughout the world have
populations in excess of 10 million people. These cities are varied andcomplex in structure, and are likely to encounter enormous challenges inthe event of a disaster. The proposal focuses on the residents of these mega
cities, and discusses the importance of mutual cooperation through sharing
of information with everyday acquaintances.
1. INTRODUCTION
Natural and man-made disasters are an issue of growing concern for large
cities the world over. As cities modernize and transport and communication
networks expand over wide areas, worldwide the number of mega cities inparticular continues to grow. In addition to their huge populations, thesemega cities contain zones of industrial, financial and commercial activity,
residential areas and administrative bodies, and their influence is therefore
felt globally, from the foundations of everyday social life to high-level
economic activity. This global issue transcends any particular region or city,and the question of how to respond to and mitigate large-scale disasters has
attracted great interest, even those disasters unlikely to lead to change insocial structure, global economic collapse, and so on. At the same time, theimpact of large-scale disasters on social structures and socioeconomic
systems is a subject of importance for all countries to consider at thenational, industrial and academic level. In the fields of science andtechnology, much effort has been placed on reducing the level of damage
caused by major disasters; however, these issues also need to be studied
from new perspectives provided by the social sciences and humanities.
2. THE NATURE OF DISASTERS
The world we inhabit is constantly undergoing change as a result of bothnatural phenomena and human activity. Natural phenomena change theplanet's topography and environment, which in turn brings about changes in
the plant and animal worlds. As a part of the animal world, the human world
experiences both benefit and harm from natural changes, and we call thisharmful aspect disaster. The many different forms of natural disaster include

69

October 2008, Beijing, China

earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunami,
landslides, land deformation, rise and fall in sea level, climate change, heatwaves and cold waves, warming and cooling. Fire damage to grassland andforest is often the result of natural disaster, but is also increasingly causedby human activity. In contrast to natural disaster, the harmful results ofhuman activity are labeled as accidents, and these too can cause large-scale
damage. Every year, an increasing number of accidents occur involving
plants such as petroleum, chemicals, energy and steel plants, transportationsuch as airplanes, trains and shipping, structures such as bridges andbuildings, and so on. Given this situation, disaster prevention and damage
limitation need to be tackled as an issue for all human beings. Well-known
historical examples of disasters striking cities include the natural disasters ofthe volcanic eruption that engulfed Pompeii and the earthquakes that
destroyed San Francisco, Tokyo and Kobe, and the disaster of the Great Fireof London resulting from human action.
3. CITIZENS OF MEGA CITIESDisaster strategies in large cities are complex, having various different
elements. It is human beings themselves who must respond to disaster, andthose same people rely on the functioning of the city for many aspects of
their daily lives, yet when disasters or accidents occur the power of theindividual is of little use. The convenience provided by a functioning city is
one of the benefits of living in large groups, and it is perhaps this goal
which has attracted people to cities. Historically, the convenience ofeverything from trade to shared defense drew people to the city, while its
inhabitants strove to achieve those goals. Permanent inhabitants of the cityand temporary residents therefore perhaps have a different consciousness ofthe city as its citizens. At times of disaster, the transition from protecting
ones neighborhood to evacuation is likely to differ between mere residentsof the city and people whose awareness of the city stretches from its history
to the atmosphere of its streets, buildings, urban areas and local
neighborhoods. There is perhaps not so much difference between theordinary citizen and the inhabitant of a small village or town, comfortable in
the familiarity of the place where they live and provided with opportunities
for social interaction. With this in mind, I wish to consider what kind of
behavior is necessary for minimizing the impact of disaster on inhabitants ofmega cities such as Tokyo and Beijing.
4. ISSUES FOR CITIES DURING DISASTER
Areas known globally as earthquake zones, volcanic regions and coastlines
prone to tsunami have been identified and analyzed on the basis of historical
data. Monitoring is also carried out by meteorological stations andmonitoring stations around the world, and by artificial satellites. Weather
conditions are now monitored 24 hours a day at ground level and from space,enabling short-term and long-term forecasts to be made. Global warming
presents a stark warning for the future of mankind, and attention is turning

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to the environmental problems of mega cities in particular as a window on
this warming trend. The issue of disaster is not just one of rapid change, butmust also be considered in terms of gradual change, as exemplified by theurban heat island phenomena. By capturing infra-red energy given off bycities, nighttime images from satellites around the globe reveal the brightglow of mega cities. This brightness is, of course, an indicator of population
as well a representation of electricity consumption, and as such it implies
other activities occurring alongside energy use, since human populations
also require a supply of food and water. Disaster not only brings physicaldestruction and loss, but also leads to the breakdown of these systems. Most
cities are of course well aware of this and have strategies for dealing withsuch problems.
5. FOCUSING ON DISASTER MITIGATION
Most cities are equipped with various systems, organizational structures,
equipment and facilities for dealing with disasters. Naturally, the necessarybuildings, structures and communication systems are in place before disasteroccurs; however, being mostly for emergency use rather than daily use, theirperformance during a disaster is not guaranteed. After a disaster, evacuationis the biggest problem to be faced. Strategies for damage by wind and flood
will differ from those for unpredictable disasters such as earthquakes, andwill also differ between local administrative bodies. The various conditions
described above have generated different methods and strategies forresponding to disaster, but a human-centered perspective on the problem
seems to have been lacking until now. In the midst of damage caused bydisaster, most important are human life, information and cooperation. In a
disaster, the number one priority is human life – ones own life. I identify
four forms of help: self-help refers to helping oneself, mutual help refers to
helping people in close proximity, cooperative help is help between friends
and colleagues, groups, and within and between companies, and lastly,
public help is help provided by public organizations and systems. In theevent of a disaster, the first priorities are self-help and mutual help, which
are fundamentally based on the individual. These forms of help depend on
one's everyday acquaintances and the possibility of information sharing andcooperation, yet for inhabitants of mega cities, such cooperation andinformation sharing, while being the most important aspect in disastermitigation, are lacking. Cooperative help involves mutual help on a wide
scale between acquaintances, regions, workplaces and businesses. The
DiMS Disaster Mitigation Strategy Forum set up in 2006 has discussed
aspects of these problems as part of activities focused on disaster mitigation.
This forum's members include people from the worlds of academia, businessand also those with experience in public administration.

Disaster Mitigation for Inhabitants of Mega Cities

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72

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

STRATEGY FOR EFFICIENT USE OF
EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMFOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER REDUCTIONKIMIRO MEGURO
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japanmeguro@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTOn October 1st 2007, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has
started disclosing Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) information to thegeneral public. Although this information can be very useful to reduce
damage in coming earthquakes, if used inappropriately, it could, in theworst case scenario, be more damaging than no information at all. In order
to avoid this situation, it is important that the general public understands
the meaning and limitations of the information that is being provided
therefore avoiding false expectations.
The EEW system uses the difference of wave velocity between Primarywave (P-wave) and Secondary wave (S-wave), to disclose the seismic
intensity and arrival time with considerable accuracy before the strong
ground motion is felt. As many seismometers have been installed in Japan,
when an earthquake occurs, the nearest location seismometer can detect Pwave and this information will be immediately be sent to the JMA. Using theinformation, JMA can calculate the location and magnitude of theearthquake from which the observed P-wave is generated within 4 seconds
since the P-wave detection time. With occurrence time, location andmagnitude of the earthquake, seismic intensity and arrival time of the
expected ground motion can be estimated and informed to the persons who
are located at some distance from the earthquake source.
The EEW system has six steps: a) P-wave detection by the nearest
location seismometer, b) data transmission to JMA, c) calculation oflocation, magnitude and occurrence time of the event by JMA, d) delivery of
the information to dissemination and disaster-related organizations by JMA,e) delivery of the information by these organizations to users, f) use of theinformation for disaster reduction by the users. In this paper, issues with thecurrent EEW system will be classified following to these steps and discussed.
Then, their solutions will be introduced for proper use of EEW system.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started disclosing Earthquake
Early Warning (EEW) information to the general public on the 1st October73

October 2008, Beijing, China

1st 20071) almost one year after the advanced system, intended for special
users, was launched. Since the start of the service, there have been sometroubles and as a result EEW information was not delivered to the affectedsites before strong ground motion arrived as expected. Many mass media
repeated the limitation and negative aspect of the system and sometimes
they reported that EEW system have no meaning.
Different from the advanced system, in case of ordinary EEW system,
the general public, who are not trained well and do not understand well themeaning and the limitations of EEW information and how to use theinformation, are the potential users. There are many issues for proper use ofordinary EEW system. In this paper, I will summarize the issues andintroduce their solutions for properly use of EEW information provided byordinary EEW system. Issues will be classified into six following the six
steps of EEW system. Also, I will explain the effects of EEW informationand point out the importance of indirect effects of EEW system.
2. FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE ON EARTHQUAKE EARLYWARNING INFORMATION
2.1 Basic knowledge and terminology for EEW system
Earthquake is generated by the rupture of the underground seismic
fault. As shown in Figure 1, fault rupture is spatial and temporal behavior
and the rupture starting point is called hypocenter and its right above groundsurface point is called epicenter. During the rupture of the fault, stress wave
is generated and propagated. This wave vibrates ground and is called
seismic wave. There are two kinds of seismic waves, one is body wave andthe other is surface wave (Figure 1). Body wave, traveling directly from thefault to the observation point, is composed of two type of the waves,primary wave (P-wave) and Secondary wave (S-wave). P-wave islongitudinal wave and its component is along the propagation direction. It is
usually felt as an up-down movement. While S-wave is shear and transverse
wave, its component is perpendicular to the propagation direction. It is
usually felt as horizontal movement and is major cause of earthquake
damage. Surface wave, traveling to the surface and then propagate along tosurface to the observation point, is composed of two types of waves,Rayleigh and Love waves. It affects large tanks and bridge, and high risebuildings.
Although there are some varieties due to stress condition and asperity
characteristics on the fault plane, definition of the magnitude, which explain
the energy of the earthquake, can be generally discussed by the final rupturearea of the fault. However, at the beginning and/or progress stage of the
rupture, it is physically impossible to determine accurately the final
magnitude of the event. There is a trade off the between available time andaccuracy.

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P-wave �Primary wave�
Body waves

Seismicwaves(Travel directlyfrom thehypocenter to theobservation point.)

Surface waves(Longitudinal, compression wave. Its
component is along the propagation
direction. Usually felt as an up-down
movement. It has a high propagation
velocity)�-waveWavedirection
Propagat ion direction

S-wave �Secondary wave�

(Shear, transverse wave. Its
component is perpendicular to the
propagation direction. Usually felt asside movement. Propagation velocity
is slower than that of P-waves.

L: Focal distance�����Vp�Vs/�Vp-Vs�

Wave
Propagation direction direction��������� ������������
�������������������
���������

�����������
�����

�Travel to the surface
and then to theobservation point.
Propagation velocity isslower than that ofbody waves. Affects
large t anks and bridge,
and high rise buildings.
Two types: Rayleighand Love waves.)

�-wave�����������������
�����������������
���������
����������
����������������

Figure 1: Types and characteristics of seismic waves

When we measure the ground motion by seismometer, waves such as
shown in Figure 2 are recorded. From the records, we ca understand that theorder of the wave propagation velocity and predominant frequency is
P-wave, S-wave and surface wave and that of the predominant period fromlonger one is opposite.
EEW system is that using the difference of wave velocity between
P-wave and S-wave, before strong ground motion attacks the observation
point, seismic intensity and arrival time is informed with considerable
accuracy. As we have installed many seismometers in Japan, when an
earthquake occurred, nearest location seismometer can detect P-wave andthis information will be immediately sent to the JMA. Using the information,
JMA can calculate the location and magnitude of the earthquake from which
the observed P-wave is generated by around 4 seconds since the time of the
P-wave detection. With occurrence time, location and magnitude of theearthquake, seismic intensity and arrival time of the expected ground motion
can be estimated and informed to the person who is located a little far fromthe earthquake. This is EEW system.
Distance from the observation point to earthquake can be calculatedby the Equation (1).
L = �t �Vp�Vs/�Vp-Vs�
(1)
where ��is P-S arrival time difference, Vp and Vs are P-wave andS-wave velocity, respectively.
As the underline part of the Equation (1) is normally �to 8 km/s,
considering four seconds required for calculation, distance, L becomesaround 30 km. Therefore, even if seismometer is located at the site of theearthquake, it is impossible to deliver the warning before strong groundmotion arrives within 30 km focal distance.

Strategy for Efficient Use of Earthquake Early Warning System for Earthquake Disaster Reduction75

October 2008, Beijing, China
EW -Component

PGA = 619(Gal)

D: Duration
Q: Frequency

A: Amplitude
P-waveNS-Component

PGA = 820(Gal)UD-Component

PGA = 333(Gal)S-wave01030(sec)20

Figure 2: Three important characteristics of ground motion causing damage(1995 Kobe ground motion observed at Kobe Marine MeteorologicalObservatory)
Cars / Highways / Tonnels
Bullet train

Power stations

Seismometer

Information
releaseData analysis
P-waveS-waveMeteorological
AgencyHouses
Factories

Data acquisition
Data transmission
P-wave S-wave

High-rise buildings

Data user
OfficeHospital

Underground seismometer

P-wave and S-wave
wave fronts
Fault rupture Hypocenter (rupture starting point)

Figure 3: Earthquake early warning system (Processes and tasks)

2.2 Relation among earthquake damage and ground motion
characteristics
Figure 2 shows the 1995 Kobe earthquake ground motion recorded at
JMA Kobe marine observatory station. Effects of ground motion onearthquake damage can be discussed by three major parameters, such as A:
maximum amplitude, D: duration and Q: frequency characteristics of thestrong ground motion. Damage becomes severer when the maximum
amplitude is larger, duration is longer, and frequency characteristics areclose to those of target system and structure as resonance may occur. JMA
seismic intensity, the most popular index to discuss the effect of groundmotion in Japan is also defined by basically these three parameters.
There are also three major parameters that strongly affect above
mentioned three parameters of ground motion. These are ‘source

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characteristics’, ‘wave propagation path from source to the observation
point’, and ‘site effect of observation point.’ Each of them can be discussed
by mainly, magnitude of the earthquake, focal distance, and surface soil
condition of the site, respectively. Table 1 describes relations among thesethree by three parameters. Understanding these relations is the key to use
well of EEW system.
When you discuss the effects of magnitude on ground motion, theother two, i.e. focal distance and surface soil condition should be fixed.
When a magnitude is lager, maximum amplitude becomes bigger, andduration does longer and relatively lower frequency component, which
affects strongly structural damage, does predominant. About the effects offocal distance, when it is longer, maximum amplitude becomes smaller, andduration does longer but its effect is less as amplitude becomes smaller, andrelatively lower frequency component does predominant as high frequency
components attenuate. About the surface soil condition at the observation
site, when the ground is softer and thicker, maximum amplitude becomeslager, and duration does longer, and predominant frequency does lower.
2.3 Relation between ground motion parameters and EEW system
Based on characteristics discussed above, the relation between groundmotion parameters and the EEW system may be found as summarized inTable 2. For instance, when an earthquake with large magnitude occurred
close to the observation site, it is difficult to deliver EEW information to thesite before ground motion attacks the site. Good condition earthquake withhigh efficiency of EEW system is large magnitude one but focal distance issome long. As distance is long, available time is longer but because of large
magnitude, damage may occur.
The effect of site condition on the ground motion characteristics is
also very strong, for accurate ground motion information delivery andefficient response based on it, it is important to consider the user’s locationand his/her site condition beforehand. Even the same magnitude of the event
same focal distance, when the soil condition is different, ground motion
become different, even soil condition is also the same, shaking that the user
will feel is quite different at under ground, ground surface, and upper floorof high rise building. The motion that a car driver will feel on elevated highway bridge, is driver’s seat response due to response of driving car due toamplified structural response of bridge due to strong ground motion. The
characteristics on the motion, that a person working at the building
construction site will feel, is changing everyday based on the progress ofconstruction of the building.

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October 2008, Beijing, China
Table 1: How do ground motion characteristics affect damage?
Source characteristics
Representative
parameters

Magnitude�M�
(Source effect)

Propagation pathand distance
Focal distance(Between observation
point and fault)

Local site effectGround conditions
Topography

LargerSmaller

Longer(Further)

Shorter(Closer)

Hard
soil

A: Maximum
amplitude

BecomeslargerBecomessmaller

Becomessmaller(Attenuated)NochangeNochange(However, if soilliquefies, theshaking becomesless intense)

D: Strong
motionduration

BecomeslongerBecomes
shorterNochangeNochangeBecomeslongerQ:
Frequency
content

Low
frequency
component
increasesHighfrequency
component
increases

Becomes longer(However,amplitude becomes
smaller, thendamage decreases)

Low frequency
content
increases(Because highfrequency
component
attenuates faster)NochangeNochangeSoft soil
Amplification

Low frequency
content
increases(Predominantperiod becomes
longer, lowfrequency waves
amplify)

Table 2: Relation between ground motion parameters and earthquake early warning
Sourcecharacteristics

Relation
to earthquake
early
warning

Propagation
distanceand path

Observation point
topography,
soil conditions, others

The time between the
There is a trade off
warning and the
between accuracy andshaking is shorter if thetime. Earthquake is an
focal distance is shorter.
spatial and temporal
The warning system is
event and its magnitude
not so effective forbecomes bigger as thefault plane area becomes locations close to thelarger. In case of a large epicenter of large
earthquake, it takes time earthquakes. This
areas are expected tofor the rupture to takeplace. As a result, it takes have the largest
damage. The system istime to identify it andissue the warning, leaving most effective forshorter time for action. If locations not so close to
the epicenter of a large
the warning is issued
earthquake.
sooner – with lesscertainty – more time foraction is available but
also a larger chance of an
inaccurate evaluation.

Even for the same magnitudeand focal distance, theshaking amplitude, frequency
content and duration can bevery different depending on
the observation location.
Even in the same building,the shake at the basement or
at higher up floors is very
different. In a car, on a
viaduct or a bridge, the shakeis affected by the dynamic
response of the viaduct/
bridge. At a building
construction site, theresponse changes with thechanging characteristics ofthe structure being built.

3. ISUSES FOR WELL USE OF EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNINGSYSTEM
3.1 Issues in general
There are two levels of use of EEW system. One is an advanced
system and the other is general public use system. Ideal use of EEW
information is advanced one and is that first, ground motion intensity andarrival time are calculated accurately considering the user’ condition,
secondly, the information is delivered immediately and surely to the user,
thirdly user uses them well based on pre-event good preparation and training
and reduce the damage as much as possible. However, in case of ordinary
system different from an advanced system, the general public, who are nottrained well and don’t understand well the meaning and the limitation of thisinformation and how to use it, are potential users. Therefore, it is very78

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difficult to deliver the information considering user’s location, expecting
seismic intensity, and available time before arrival of strong ground motion
attack. Then in case of ordinary EEW system, JMA consider the conditions
below for information delivery to avoid troubles. a) the number of
information delivery of one event is one in principle, b) information isdelivered only when strong ground motion is expected, c) prevent false
information delivery by mistake, d) deliver the information as soon as
possible, e) proper description which can consider estimation error isadopted, f) confine areas with some accuracy where countermeasures suchas evacuation is needed, g) include information that is necessary for
information delivery by TV broadcast. Namely, JMA decided to deliver
EEW information to the areas where JMA seismic intensity is expected 4 ormore when at least two stations detect ground motion with JMA seismic
intensity 5– or more. National land is divided into 200 parts and each part isused for area unit for information delivery. Concrete value of seismic
intensity and available time are not informed.
It is understandable that JMA decided to serve ordinary EEW systemin the above mentioned manner. However, I think that in future even thesystem for the general public had better aim to be advanced system.
Therefore, in this session, I will summarize the issues towards futureadvanced system and introduce solutions for them. Figure 3 shows the total
processes of EEW system. As shown in the figure, there are six steps from
P-wave detection to use of EEW information by users. a) P-wave detection
by the nearest location seismometer, b) send this information to JMA, c)
JMA calculate location, magnitude and occurrence time of the event, d)
JMA deliver them to information dissemination organizations and disasterrelated organizations, e) information dissemination and disaster-relatedorganizations deliver them to users, f) users use them for disaster reduction.
All the issues on each step will be classified into two, i.e. information
dissemination and receiving sides, and discussed.
3.2 Issues for information dissemination organizations to deliver
information quickly and correctly
Among the six steps of EEW system, five ones from a) to e) are issues
for information dissemination side issues. However, step e) has both aspects
as the organization receives the information from JMA. Information
dissemination organizations are required to detect P-wave as soon as
possible after earthquake, calculate the location, magnitude and occurrencetime of the event accurately and immediately as much as possible, anddeliver them to users as soon as possible. I will explain briefly about
relations between these missions and all five steps from a) to e).
P-wave detection by the nearest seismometer of above a) is for quick
monitoring of ground motion, therefore, it is important to install
seismometer at the site close to event. To implement this situation,
installation of dense seismometer array network, deep bore holeseismometers, ocean bed seismometers, are important. In case that target
seismic fault is recognized, seismometer network near to the fault iseffective. Sending P-wave information to JMA of b), Analyzed datadelivery by JMA to information dissemination organizations and disaster-

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related organizations of d), and EEW information delivery by information
dissemination and disaster-related organizations to users of e), etc. are allissues related with quick information transfer and its reliability. On thecalculation of location, magnitude and occurrence time of the event by JMAof c), improvement of method and system is a key issue. About EEW
information delivery to users by information dissemination and disasterrelated organizations of e), consideration of users’ situation and purpose of
EEW is key as contents and accuracy of EEW information are different.
About the use of EEW information by users for disaster reduction of f),
disaster imagination of user is the key issue.
3.3 Issues for information receivers to use EEW information smoothly
and correctly
For information receivers to use EEW information smoothly andcorrectly, disaster imagination is a key issue as well as understanding themeaning and limitation of EEW information. It is impossible for people torespond well for unimaginable situation. To improve disaster imagination
capability, I have developed some tools, such as Meguro-method2) andMeguro-maki2 � which is simplified version of Meguro-method. With the
Meguro-method, table as shown in Figure 4 is used. Vertical axis shows the
typical daily life pattern and horizontal axis shows the time since theoccurrence of the earthquake. When the daily life patterns are prepared,
seismic capacity of the house, furniture layout, environment around yourhome and your working company, location and actions of other family
members depending on time, etc. are also checked. Moreover considering
the case that transportation system cannot be functional, check the timeneeded for walking.
Then, assuming season, weather, day of the week, with the condition
that earthquake occurred at each time of your action, imagine what will
happen around you as time passes, and consider what you should do in such
each situation. Many people cannot write anything as they can imagine
nothing. This means that they cannot perform well in case earthquake
occurs.
Strong points of Meguro-methods are; a) people can understand fully
that earthquake is their own problem, b) People can understand that ordinary,
abled person is considered as temporally disabled person, c) people canunderstand multiple tasks that individual person has, and d) people canconsider the story after they died in disaster. By these points, people can
improve their disaster imagination capability.

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ICUS Report 31� � � � 12
� � �� ��� � � 10 30 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 10
� � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Earthquake����� 3 10 30

�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�

Typical daily
life activity

0�00

a

b c d e f g� � � ���

3�00 sleeping����
commuting� �

6�00 rising

Business � �
In AM
��

15�00 Business� �
in PM

�
�

18�00commuting��
21�00
24�00

k l

m n o p q rst

u v w x y z z’�����Your typical daily life activity

9�00

12�00 lunch

h i jsecond� ���minute� ���Week/month
hour

� ��

� ��
�

day

year

��
���

�
�
�
��

Figure 4: What will happen around you when you feel strong ground motion?

Figure 5: What can you do before an earthquake occurs ?

As the next step of the method, different table as shown in Figure 5
which shows the time up to the future earthquake is used. Once disaster
imagination capability is improved, people can understand their own current
problems and they start thinking seriously about solution of the problem andcan use the time before earthquake comes to solve these problems. Then,
their disaster resiliency can be increased before an earthquake and damage
due to future earthquake can be reduced. While conventional style ofdisaster training such as ‘Do A, do B, don’t do C’ may stop the people
thinking disaster seriously and has less education effect. What we should dofrom now as disaster education is to increase the number of the people who
can really imagine what happens around them and what they should do indisaster as time goes since it happens considering the conditions, such as,
time of occurrence, season, weather, location, and their roles at the time, etc.
When the available time becomes less than tens of seconds, this is a time

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October 2008, Beijing, China

range for EEW system as shown in the bottom table in Figure 5. To use
efficiently this limited time, detailed information of user’s situation isessential. People recognize the importance of pre-event preparation.
4. DIRECT AND INDIRECT PLUS AND MINUS EFFECTS THATEEW SYSTEM HAS
The effects that EEW system has can be classified direct and indirect,
and each plus and minus. So far, direct effects have been focused as major
discussion points. However, I believe that indirect effects are the more
important and we should pay much more attention to indirect effects. I will
introduce direct and indirect effects, and their each plus and minus aspects.
Table 3: Effects of early earthquake warning
�Direct effects are usually discussed. However, indirect effects are also very important,often overlooked, and should be discussed.�

DirecteffectIndirecteffectPositive
impact

Early earthquake
warning canreduce damage

Opportunity topromote disastercountermeasures
before the event

Negative
impactImproper use of
the disclosed
information may
lead to moredamage.

-Unreal sense of safety
hampering disastercountermeasure
implementation-Influence on stock market,
etc.

Direct plus effects are that many people expect. With better
understanding of meaning and limitation of EEW information andpreparation for efficient use of EEW information, EEW information can beused for disaster mitigation. Typical examples are human casualty reduction
by proper evacuation guidance based on EEW information, structural
damage reduction by vibration control based on EEW information, Machine
trouble prevention such as elevator and industrial machines by automatic
stoop system based on EEW information, fire problem reduction byautomatic stop system of gas and electric heater by EEW system, damage
protection by over turning protection devices automatically controlled by
EEW system, Start of action and preparation of emergency operation of firefighting offices and of hospitals, traffic accident prevention of train and cars
by EEW system.
Direct minus effects are also well known. In case that people don’tknow well about meaning of EEW system and how to use it, EEW
information may give some trouble to the people and they cannot use it well
for reduction of damage, they may increase damage, especially in the casethat they become panic. This situation should be avoided and a key is
education and training beforehand. Improvement of disaster imagination
capability is essential issue for education and training as explained before.

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On indirect plus, which was not so far used widely, but only limitedlyused for education, however, I think that for ordinary EEW system, thisindirect plus effects should be considered the most important. EEW
information dissemination is an initial opportunity for the general public topromote real disaster mitigation countermeasures. With the start of EEWservice, people start thinking how to use EEW information. If we have twoseconds, five seconds before strong ground motion attacks us at living room,
what we can do for save us and disaster mitigation. How about sleeping
time? If the house is collapsed, furniture is over turned, we cannot evacuate.
When the people’s imagination capability is high enough through such as
Meguro-method and/or Meguro-maki, they can recognize the importance ofpre-event preparation and countermeasures, and understand that there aremany damages that cannot be prevented only by EEW system. Finally,
people conclude that pre-event countermeasures such as installation offurniture over turning protection device and retrofit of structure, creation ofdisaster resilient city are very important and these countermeasures arepromoted. Then, in both cases that EEW system can and cannot give time
before strong ground motion arrival, damage can be reduced by pre-event
countermeasures.
About indirect minus effects, I think that this should be absolutely
avoided. The effects are that EEW information reassures the general public
about earthquake risks without any valid evidence. This hinders the generalpublic from promoting pre-event countermeasures. As the result, futureearthquake damage increases. Also, the effect on the stock market isconsidered a kind of indirect minus effect. Besides the earthquake damage,
big negative economical impact can be given to the affected area and thecountry by EEW system. To make EEW system popular in the world forearthquake disaster mitigation in the world, we should prevent such asituation. A new stock market regulation should be established frominternational viewpoint.
5. CONCLUSIONSIn this paper, I summarized the issues and introduced their solutions forproperly use of EEW information provided by ordinary EEW system. Issues
are classified into six, following six steps of EEW system from P-wave
detection by seismometer to end user’s EEW information use, and discussed.
Also, I explained the effects of EEW information and pointed out theimportance of indirect effects.
Different from an advanced system, in case of ordinary EEW system,
the general public, who are not trained well and do not understand well themeaning and the limitations of EEW information and how to use theinformation, are potential users. JMA’s current principle on EEW
information service is understandable. However, for better use of it, we had
better pay much attention to indirect effects that EEW information has.
Efforts for increase indirect plus and decrease indirect minus lead thegeneral public to increase direct plus and decrease direct minus. For
implementation of this environment, disaster imagination is also a key issue
as well as understanding the meaning and limitations of EEW information.
It is impossible for people to respond well for unimaginable situation. To
improve disaster imagination capability, I recommended using the tools,
such as Meguro-method and Meguro-maki. With these tools, when they

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improve their capability, they can understand their current problems and canuse the time available before an earthquake to solve their problems.
Also, when they try to find the good way to use EEW informationconsidering their own situation, they can recognize that there are many
damages which cannot be reduced or prevented by only EEW system, andcan realize that they should take actions long before an earthquake occurs.
The most important and effective actions should be taken much earlier. The
public should recognize that EEW information alone cannot reduce much of
the damage unless there is good preparation before the event. We should
never face a situation in which we visit an elementary school after anearthquake and realize that the well prepared and warned students protected
themselves under their desks just to be killed by the collapsed structure.
Only if structural measures are taken before the earthquake, it will bepossible to take fully advantage of any EEW information. The launching of
this type of system is offering a unique opportunity to discuss disastercountermeasures and to increase disaster awareness among the generalpublic.
I believe that the ideal use of the EEW information is that
dissemination of this information becomes a good opportunity for thegeneral public to consider more seriously about earthquake problem andimprove disaster imagination capability. As a result, EEW information
becomes a driving force to promote disaster mitigation countermeasures,such as retrofitting of low earthquake resistant structures, and to increase
our society resilience. We should not have false expectations that EES
information alone will reduce earthquake damage.
REFERENCES
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Website,
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
Kimiro MEGURO: Towards proper use of earthquake early warning system
in Japan, Proceeding of the 6th workshop on national land safety
networking, 2007.2 (in Japanese).

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Technical Sessions

DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS DUE TO 2008
MAY 12 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE AND
COOPERATIVE ACTIVITIES FOR DAMAGERESTORATION BY JAPANESE EXPERTSYOSHIAKI NAKANOInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japaniisnak@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTA destructive earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008, and caused
extensive damage to Sichuan Province in China. Immediately after the event,Japanese scientific/engineering societies that had experiences and knowhow on damage restoration of structures in the past major earthquakes
jointly formed a council to technically support the restoration of the hardest
hit areas through their mutual cooperation and sharing information. Since
then, the council has been actively cooperating with Chinese experts fromacademic and engineering fields through damage investigations andextensive discussions on technical and practical issues for damage
restoration. This paper briefly overviews damage to buildings and somerelevant activities for their restoration mainly made under the cooperationof Southwest Jiaotong University in Chengdu, Sichuan Province.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Wenchuan Earthquake of magnitude 7.9 (USGS) jolted major cities in
Sichuan Province, Central China at 14:28 local time on May 12, 2008. The
damage is widespread and devastating, and more than 80,000 people arereportedly killed mainly due to collapse of buildings. Immediately after the
event, the following seven Japanese scientific/engineering societies (initiallythe first five societies listed below) jointly set up a Technical Supports
Council for Damage Restoration after Sichuan (Wenchuan) Earthquake(Council Chair: Dr. M. Hamada, Professor of Waseda University).
* Council member societies
1. JSCE (Japan Society of Civil Engineers)
2. AIJ (Architectural Institute of Japan)
3. JGS (The Japanese Geotechnical Society)4. JAEE (Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering)
5. SSJ (Seismological Society of Japan)
6. CPIJ (The City Planning Institute of Japan)
7. AJG (The Association of Japanese Geographers)
The major purpose of the Council’s activity is to form a technicalsupport team under a close cooperation of seven societies that are wellexperienced in post-earthquake activities and to help researchers, engineers,and practitioners in the affected area restore damaged structures and85

October 2008, Beijing, China

communities through sharing knowledge and experiences of recent
damaging earthquakes such as 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes.
After the earthquake, the Council dispatched technical support teams
during May 28 through June 1 and June 20 through 25, and organized aSpecial Lectures on Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering in
September. In this paper, damage observation of building structures andtechnical supports activities for their restoration made during the second
visit in June are briefly described.
2. BUILDING DAMAGE OBSERVATIONS
Damage surveys were primarily made in Dujiangyan city and Hanwang
town of Mianzhu city. The surveys were organized by the Southwest
Jiaotong University in Chengdu city, which was the Chinese counterpart for
the technical support activities. Figure 1 shows the surveyed areas. During
surveys, two major structural types, brick structures and RC frames with
URM (unreinforced masonry) walls, are found. In the subsequent sections,major damage patterns found during surveys in May and June are briefly
described for each structural type.

Beijing(��)Sichuan(���)Chengdu(��)

Shanghai(��)Figure 1: Surveyed areas
2.1 Brick buildings
Brick buildings are most seriously damaged and they often sustain
partial or total collapse. They have UR brick walls having RC ring beams
and precast hollow-core slabs on the walls. The major cause of the fatal
damage is attributed to the low resistance and brittleness of URM walls andpoorly detailed joints between precast members and RC beams. Photos 1
and 2 show typical damage to brick buildings.
2.2 RC buildings
In RC buildings, several damage patterns are found. They include
damage to UR brick walls, shear failure in columns, flexural compression
failure at column top and/or bottom, beam-column joint failure, andstructural damage resulting from soil/ground failure underneath.

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2.2.1 Damage to UR brick walls
Reinforced concrete shear walls are much less frequently provided in
RC buildings than UR brick walls. Lightly reinforced small-sized columns
are often placed later between UR brick walls so that the walls should serveas the form in casting RC columns. During the surveys, shear cracks andfailure of brick walls are found in many buildings as shown in Photo 3. It
should be noted, however, that lath-mortar finishing on the exterior surfaceof UR walls is found to help avoid their out-of-plane failure, although they
are heavily cracked. Such efforts therefore should be encouraged tominimize falling hazard to residents and users during and after major quakes.
2.2.2 Shear failure in RC column
Shear failures in RC columns shortened by partial height brick walls
are found in several buildings, as have been found elsewhere in the pastdamaging earthquakes. Photo 4 shows a typical shear failure in the firststory of a building in Dujiangyan city. Photo 5 shows another failure, where
the column is shortened and failed in shear leaving vertical cracks along theinterface between the column and brick wall. The damage is attributed to thepresence of partial height brick walls, which are generally neglected in the
structural design but significantly affect the building’s behavior duringstrong shaking.

Photo 1: Seriously damaged brick buildings

Photo 2: Partially collapsed brick buildings with hollow-core slabs

Damage to Buildings Due to 2008 MAY 12 WenChuan Earthquake and Cooperative Activities for Damage
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October 2008, Beijing, China

Photo 3: Shear failure in brick wall (left) and survived wall (right)

Photo 4: Typical shear failure in RC short columns

Photo 5: Shear failure in RC column shortened by partial height brick wall
2.2.3 Flexural compression failure at the top and bottom of RC column
Seriously damaged RC buildings often show flexural compression
failure at the top and the bottom of their columns. Photos 6 and 7 show thedamage to columns in the first story of a six story apartment building inDujiangyan city. Hooks of lateral reinforcement are pulled out of crushed

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concrete core. Main rebars buckles and fractures as shown in the photos. As
will be found later, the building is employed for a sample building toinvestigate possible restoration schemes and to discuss their feasibility.

Photo 6: General view of six story RC apartment house

Photo 7: Flexural compression failure at the top and bottom of columns
2.2.4 Damage to RC beam-column joints
Damage to beam-column joints are less frequently found than otherfailure patterns such as shear failure in columns, flexural compression
failure at the top of columns. Photo 8 shows the damage to the beamcolumn joint of RC apartment buildings, which were under construction at
the time of the earthquake.
2.2.5 Structural damage due to soil failure
Structural damage due to soil failure underneath a building andresulting differential settlement is found in some buildings located at thefoot of a mountain slope in Dujiangyan city. Photo 9 shows damage to aretaining wall, causing soil outflow and differential settlement ofsuperstructures.

Damage to Buildings Due to 2008 MAY 12 WenChuan Earthquake and Cooperative Activities for Damage
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Photo 8: Failure in beam-column joint�Photo 9: Structural damage due to soil failure��

3. SINO-JAPAN SEMINAR ON RESTORATION OF DAMAGEDBUILDINGS
Along with the aim of the Council’s activities, AIJ dispatched an expert
team on building damage assessment and restoration led by the author
during the period of June 20 through 25 following the first preliminary
surveys in May. After two-day surveys of affected areas in Dujiangyan cityand Hanwang town of Mianzhu city, the Sino-Japan Seminar on Techniques
for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction after the Sichuan (Wenchuan)
Earthquake was held on June 24 at Southwest Jiaotong University (SJU).
3.1 Outline of the seminar
The purpose of the seminar is primarily to present concrete strategies
for damage restoration and to discuss their feasibility and applicability withseminar participants in detail. To this end, an example building is selectedfrom those inspected during the field surveys considering Chinese side
requests and then restoration schemes for the building are investigated andproposed by the Japanese side in the seminar.
In the seminar, summaries of damage surveys and basic ideas widely
applied in Japan for restoring earthquake damaged buildings are first90

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presented. Then restoration scheme candidates for buildings damaged due toWenchuan Earthquake are proposed by the Japanese side and theirapplicability, problems to be solved from the practical design andconstruction point of view in China are discussed in detail.
3.2 Example building
The example building is a six story RC apartment building inDujiangyan city which appeared earlier in Photos 6 and 7 of 2.2.3. The
structure was already completed at the time of the earthquake. The firststory designed for a parking garage has no walls, while the upper stories
have dwelling units with brick walls as shown in Photo 10 and Figure 2.
Almost all columns in the first story form plastic hinges both at their
top and bottom, causing concrete crushing and rebar buckling (Photos 6 and
7) resulting in the soft-first story mechanism with a residual lateral drift ofapproximately 10% of the story height. No major damage is, however,found in the upper stories.
The observed damage is rated [unsafe] based on the Japanese quick
inspection manual and [heavy damage] based on the Japanese postearthquake damage evaluation guidelines (JBDPA 2001). The building
therefore is identified to be evacuated and shored to avoid life-threatening
risk and damage progress due to aftershocks.
3.3 Restoration strategies
To understand the fundamental seismic performance of the building,the Japanese seismic evaluation procedure (JBDPA 2001) is applied and theseismic capacity index Is of the first story is evaluated. Table 1 summarizes
the result. The building is found ductile with F index of 2.6, which isconsistent with observed damage with a large lateral residual displacement.
Table 1: Seismic capacity index of example building prior to damage
C
F
Eo
Is
0.14
2.60
0.67
0.67
0.12
2.99
Note: Is = Eo x SD x T
Eo = (0.14 + 0.12) x 2.6 = 0.67
Eo: basic structural capacity index defined by C x F
C: strength index defined in terms of shear coefficient
F: ductility index (ranging from 1.0 to 3.2) defined mainly by
shear-to-flexure strength ratio, yielding displacement, etc.
SD and T: reduction factors for Eo to allow for irregularity anddeterioration of building (both assumed 1.0 herein)

Damage to Buildings Due to 2008 MAY 12 WenChuan Earthquake and Cooperative Activities for Damage
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Photo 10: Example six story RC apartment building�(a) Plan viewbrick wall

brick wall(b) Elevation view
Left : interior column
Right: exterior column
Hoop:�10@100(c) Column sections
Figure 2: Structural configuration and column size of example RC building�

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To restore the damage, the following six schemes are proposed in theseminar. Table 2 summarizes and illustrates the basic ideas of the schemes.
3.4 Discussions in the seminar
More than ninety participants including researchers, engineers, andSJU students attended the seminar, and the applicability of the proposed
restoration schemes are discussed as well as other general issues related torestoration techniques.
Table 2: Restoration scheme candidates

Scheme(F-: flexural / S-: shear)
1. Repair

General description
Repair to initial configuration
after re-centering
RC jacketing after re-centering
RC jacketing w/o re-centering
Scheme 3 & steel jacketing
Scheme 1 & wing walls

Expected*
difficulties

Expected#
performance

(1)

(a)

2. F-strengthening(1) (2)(b)
3. F-strengthening(2)(b)
4. F- and S-strengthening(2)(b)
5. Repair & strengthening(1)(b)
w/ new wing-walls
6. Repair & strengthening Scheme 1 & shear walls(1)(b)
w/ new shear walls* Expected difficulties and necessary construction works(1) Jack-up and re-centering of building; (2) Anchorage of longitudinal rebars forjacketing and arrangement of shear reinforcement in beam-column joints# Expected post-restoration performance(a) Damage expected under future major earthquake; (b) Higher resistance and stiffness
expected but careful examination needed on their vertical distribution

Scheme 1

Scheme 4

Scheme 2

Scheme 5

Scheme 3

Scheme 6

Damage to Buildings Due to 2008 MAY 12 WenChuan Earthquake and Cooperative Activities for Damage
Restoration by Japanese Experts
93

October 2008, Beijing, China

In the seminar, the Japanese side emphasized that the continuous
distribution of strength and stiffness, smooth transfer of actions throughstructural members and their interface under seismic excitations, anchorageof new reinforcement in existing RC frame etc. were of highest priority inre-designing the damaged buildings, although the restoration proposals weremade only in the first story for simplified discussions. It was also pointed
out that the buckling of column reinforcing bars associated with flexural
compression failure could be observed in areas close to their interface
between upper beams rather than in their mid-span, and confinement ofbeam-column joints using additional lateral reinforcement should be
provided to effectively eliminate further damage.
After long and enthusiastic discussions, the Chinese participants
concluded that schemes 2 and 3 were most realistic and practical. It was also
very interesting for Japanese participants to learn that schemes 5 and 6 weremuch less acceptable by the Chinese participants although they might bemost likely to be accepted in Japan. This is mainly because the mixture ofdifferent structural types (i.e., RC frames with shear walls in the first story
and RC moment resisting frames in the upper stories) is not specified in the
structural design code while it may be accepted in Japan if its effects by thechange in stiffness and strength distribution along building height on
structural behavior are carefully taken into account.
4. CONCLUDING REMARKS
Typical damage to buildings due to Wenchuan Earthquake and activities by
the Japanese experts under close cooperation with Southwest Jiaotong
University are briefly presented. In especial, damage in Hanwang, where thefault runs across the edge of the town, is extensive, and many buildings arefound totally collapsed. The Chinese side has high level background on
seismic design and restoration techniques, but there still remain various
types of difficulties even on the technical aspects as has been usually foundin the earthquake aftermath elsewhere since such a devastating disaster andits aftermath are the first experience even for researchers and engineers in
the most affected areas. The author therefore sincerely and deeply wishes
that continued cooperative efforts, sharing information and experiences suchas those having been done by the Council would effectively help restore
damaged structures and communities.
REFERENCESJBDPA / The Japan Building Disaster Prevention Association, 1977, 1990, 2001
(English version in 2005). Standard for Seismic Evaluation of Existing
Reinforced Concrete Buildings.
JBDPA / The Japan Building Disaster Prevention Association, 1991, 2001.
Guidelines for Post-earthquake Damage Evaluation of RC Buildings.

94

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FLEXURAL BEHAVIOR OF CORRODED RC
MEMBERS WITH PATCH REPAIRYOSHITAKA KATO1 and RAKTIPONG SAHAMITMONGKOL2
1
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering, IIS,
University of Tokyo, Japankatoyosh@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2
Construction & Maintenance Technology Research Center, SIIT
sahamit@siit.tu.ac.th
ABSTRACT
Structural performance of RC repaired by patching method wasexperimentally investigated and compared with non-corroded as well as
corroded RC. Two repair materials; namely, polymer-modified mortar andepoxy based repair material was applied for the repair work. The
mechanical properties as well as the bonding characteristics of these two
repair materials are different. It was found that the polymer-modified
mortar can partially restore the structural performance while the moreductile epoxy based repair material strengthen corroded RC structure sothat its ultimate load carrying capacity is beyond that of non-corroded RC.
1. INTRODUCTION
Deterioration of concrete structure is a serious problem which may
drastically degrade both load-carrying capacity as well as serviceability ofthe structure. The corrosion reduces cross sectional area of reinforcing bar
as well as induces corrosion cracking which destroys the bonding between
concrete and reinforcing bar. It was reported that, when degree of corrosion
increases, the ultimate strength of steel bars as well as the corresponding
elongation of the bar before failures decreases (Almusallam 2001). The
corrosion can also severely degrade ultimate load carrying capacity as wellas ductility of RC (Uomoto and Misra 1984). Toongernthong and Maekawa(2005) studied structural performance of corroded RC under shear load andreported that the loss of bond caused by corrosion crack may change failuremode of RC and capacity of anchorage performance as well as the strengthin shear span. The brittle failure by buckling of compression reinforcement
may also be induced if the corrosion of compression reinforcement takes
place (Uomoto and Misra 1984). Remedial action is necessary not only tomaintain safety and serviceability of the deteriorated structure but also toextend its service-life. The patching repair method is recommended as an
appropriate method for the RC members which are in the corrosion
acceleration period as well as the deterioration stage (JSCE, 2001). There
have been some researches on the performance of RC in both structural aswell as durability aspects (Shash 2005; Nounu et al 1999). It is generally
accepted that the response of the repair system to the changes exerted by the
repair must be understood for design and construction of durable concrete95

October 2008, Beijing, China

repair (Emmons and Vaysburd 1995). Satisfactory compatibility of repairing
materials to base concrete structure in both structural performance anddurability aspect must be ensured. There are several factors affecting theperformance of RC structure repaired by patching method. Effect of rebar
cleanliness, surface preparation of based concrete, and mechanicalproperties of repair materials and patching area have been experimentallyinvestigated (Al-Dulaijan 2002). However, there is still no general
methodology to analyze the structural behavior after repair precisely.
This study is therefore an attempt to investigate the structural
performance of RC repaired by patching method. The repair procedure iscontrolled to be as similar to the practical operation as possible. Two
different repair materials were selected for the study since these twomaterials are commercially available and possess different mechanicalproperties.
2. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE
2.1 Specimen Preparation and Reinforcement Arrangement
All specimens prepared for flexural test have same dimensions. The
width, height, and length are 150 mm, 200 mm, and 1700 mm, respectively.
The drawing of specimens is shown in Figure 1. The deformed steel bars
with 16-mm diameter and one with 12-mm diameter were used as tensile
reinforcement and compression reinforcement, respectively. The shear
reinforcement was 6-mm diameter round bar. Cover thickness is 25 mm.
Both longitudinal reinforcement and shear reinforcement were preparedaccording to Figure 1. 5-mm holes were drilled at the free end of hooks andelectrical wires were connected to the tensile reinforcement by 5-mm nut.
The electrical wires were used to supply direct current into the tensile
reinforcement. Since the objective of this study is to investigate thedegradation of structural performance caused by the corrosion of tensile
reinforcement only, the electrical insulators were installed at the connection
between tensile reinforcement and stirrups in order to limit the corrosion to
be in tensile reinforcement only. Table 1 shows a list of flexural RC
specimens. The specimens can be broadly categorized into 3 types; noncorroded, corroded, and repaired specimens. Lengths of corrosion zone or
repair area were varied as 300 mm, 1000 mm, and full length (1700 mm).
Two types of repair materials were applied in this study.

Figure 1: Drawings of specimen & Arrangement of Reinforcement

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Table 1: List of flexural RC specimens.
ID
NCB - 1
NCB -2FCBNR-IFCBNR-OFCBNR-F
FCB1R-IFCB1R-OFCB1R-FFCB2R-IFCB2R-OFCB2R-F

Categories
Non-corroded
Corroded

RepairedCorroded/Repair
Length300 mm1000 mm1700 mm
300 mm1000 mm1700 mm
300 mm1000 mm1700 mm

Repair Materials
Polymer Modified Mortar
Epoxy Based Material

2.2 Materials
Ordinary Portland cement-only concrete with water to cement ratio of
0.49 was used. The longitudinal reinforcement and shear reinforcement are
deformed bar (Grade SD40) and round bar (Grade SR24), respectively. Twotypes of repair materials – polymer modified mortar and epoxy based repair
material were used for patching repair. Polymer modified mortar contains
cement and silica powder as important ingredients. Its behavior is therefore
similar to cement paste with high early strength. The mix proportion ofpolymer modified powder to water was 4:7 by weight. The epoxy based
repair material provides outstanding bonding capacity and lower modulus. It
is therefore generally recommended as an adhesive to bond most surfaces ingeneral structure. The epoxy based repair material has the ratio between
epoxy and sand of 4:3 by weight.
2.3 Corrosion Acceleration of Flexural Member
In order to induce the corrosion of the RC member, cracking was
initially introduced into specimen by slow loading. The location of cracks
was ensured to be in the predetermined location. Three points loading wasapplied to induce crack in the specimen to have shortest repair region(FCBNR-I, FCB1R-I, and FCB2R-I) and four-point loadings with constantmoment span of 350 mm and 500 mm was applied to the specimen to have arepair region of 1000 mm (FCBNR-O, FCB1R-O, and FCB1R-O) and fulllength (FCBNR-F, FCB1R-F, FCB2R-F), respectively. All induced cracks
had a specified depth of 50 to 60 mm from bottom surface. Examples offlexural cracks induced by pre-cracking process are shown in Figure 2. The
cracked specimens were connected to the direct current supply and thecorrosion was accelerated.
In order to confirm the level of corrosion, the actual corrosion level ofcorroded RC specimen was measured after the loading. The corroded tensile
reinforcements were taken out by cutting out of corroded reinforcementwith specific lengths. Actual weight losses of the taken corroded
reinforcement samples were then calculated based on original weight ofreinforcement with same length. The actual weight losses of reinforcementof all specimens were from 0.3 to 0.4 g/cm2/cm. The patterns of induced

Flexural Behavior of Corroded RC Members with Patch Repair97

October 2008, Beijing, China

corrosion cracks are also shown in Figure 3. Corrosion cracks wereobservable on the sides as well as at the bottom of specimens.

Figure 2: Examples of Pre-cracked Specimens

Figure 3: Examples of corrosion cracking patterns of FCBNR series
2.4 Patching Repair Procedure
Six corroded specimens (FCB1R series and FCB2R series) were
repaired by patching repair method. The patching regions were 300 mm,
1000 mm and 1700 mm (full span) for specimens with 120 mm, 820 mm,
and full span corrosion acceleration, respectively. Initially, the damage
portions of concrete were removed by a portable demolisher powered byhigh pressure pump. The reinforcements were then polished carefully by theelectrical polishing tools equipped with steel brush. Chisel steel rods werethen used to trim the area to be repaired into rectangular shape withuniformly rough surface. The patching areas were then cleaned by highpressured air activated by air pump. The specimens were flipped so that thepatching area is on the top during patching in order to fill the repairing
materials in to the patching area efficiently as well as to ensure a quality of98

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compaction. After patching, the patched portions were wrapped by theplastic sheets in order to prevent the early lost of water from the repair
materials.
2.5 Flexural Loading Test
The non-repaired RC flexural members (NCB series) were loaded at
the age of 28 days. The corroded RC members (FCBNR series) were loaded
at 7 days after galvanic corrosion acceleration was completed. And, therepaired RC members were loaded at 14 days after repair work. All
specimens were loaded under 4-points loading with a total clear span of1500 mm. The distance between two loading points and shear span were
500 mm. Displacement transducers were installed at the middle of thespecimens, at the location of loading points, and at the supports in order tomeasure the deflection of the specimen during the loading. Monotonic
loading was slowly applied to specimen. The loading continued until the
specimens failed.
3. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
3.1 Non-corroded Flexural RC Specimens (NCB-1 and NCB-2)
Cracking loads were between 15-20 kN. Flexural cracks form initiallyin the constant moment span followed by the formation of shear cracks.
Both NCB-1 and NCB-2 collapsed by flexural-compression failure. The
loading capacity of NCB-1 and NCB-2 were 145.97 kN and 144.99 kN,
respectively. The final crack pattern of NCB-2 is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Final crack pattern of non-corroded flexural RC member (NCB-2)
3.2 Corroded Flexural RC Specimens
Three corroded RC specimens with different corrosion lengths were
tested under flexure. Slight reductions of ultimate loading capacity wereobserved in all corroded RC specimens. The ultimate load of FCBNR-I,FCBNR-O, and FCBNR-F were 137.34 kN, 138.52 kN, and 139.4 kN,
respectively. The load-deflection relationship of NCB-1, FCBNR-I,FCBNR-O, and FCBNR-F is given in Figure 5. The reduction in ultimate
loading capacity is approximately 4.5% to 6% when compared with noncorroded RC specimens. The loss of cross sectional area of tensile
reinforcement is a main reason of the lower ultimate loading capacity. It
could be observed that the stiffness of all corroded specimen is significantly
degraded mainly because bonding between tensile reinforcement andconcrete was destroyed. However, final crack patterns of FCBNR-I wasvery similar to the final crack pattern of non-corroded specimen. In the case

Flexural Behavior of Corroded RC Members with Patch Repair

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Figure 8a shows the final crack pattern of FCB1R-I. It was found thatthe first flexural crack was formed at the interface between polymer
modified mortar and base concrete. One additional crack was formed at the
middle of repair material. These cracks propagated vertically toward neuralaxis of the section without any horizontal cracks observable at the interface
between repair material and based concrete. The shear crack formation of
FCB1R-I is similar to non-corroded RC specimen. In the case of FCB1R-O
of which the patching area is 1000 mm, the first flexural cracking took placeat the vertical interface between polymer-modified mortar and base concrete
although the flexural bending moment is smaller than the middle of the span
(Figure 8b). The subsequent crackings within the patching area wereobserved. When the loading continued, the cracks in the patching show
larger crack growth. Discontinuity of the vertical bending cracks at thehorizontal interface was observable. The shear crack was subsequently
developed in the shear span and there was a clear interface failure caused by
the excessive shear force in the interface (Figure 8b). The interface cracks
was connected with flexural cracks in repair material and propagated along
the vertical interface at the end of patching area subsequently. Later on,
additional shear crack (outermost) formed when the load increased andfollowed by the crushing of concrete in compression zone. The similarinterface failure was also observed in FCB1R-F. It was found that the
number of shear cracks in shear span increased in this case and there was noformation of larger shear crack at all. This is because the repair interface
was extended to the end of the specimen. Final crack pattern of FCB1R-F isshown in Figure 8c.
160140Load (kN)

120
100
80
60

NCB-1
FCB1R-I40

FCB1R-O

20

FCB1R-F

0
0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

Displacement (mm)Figure 7: Load – deflection relationship of FCB1R series
(a)
(b)
(c)

Figure 8: Final cracks pattern of FCB1R series; (a) -I, (b) -O, (c) –F

Flexural Behavior of Corroded RC Members with Patch Repair101

October 2008, Beijing, China

3.4 Specimens Repaired with Epoxy Based Repair Material
Figure 9 shows the final crack patterns of the specimens repaired withepoxy-based repair material and their load-deflection relationships are given
in Figure 10. It should be note that, before the first cracking, the deflectionsof NCB and FCB2R-I were smaller than those of FCB2R-O and FCB2R-F
under the same load because the smaller modulus of elasticity of epoxybased repairing material. The structural behavior of FCB2R-I is very similar
with the control RC specimen because the patching area is shorter of theloading span (300 mm). The failure of FCB2R-I was governed by thecompression failure of the concrete inside constant moment span but outside
patching area. Since epoxy-based repairing material applied in this study isvery ductile and strong in both tension and bonding. In FCB2R-O andFCB2R-F, the flexural cracks were formed in the based concrete without
flexural cracks in the epoxy-based repair material (see Figure 9b and 9c). A
good cracking resistance of epoxy-based repair materials contributed to thestiffness of the member. The deflections of NCB and FCB2R-I therefore
became larger than the deflections of FCB2R-O and FCB2R-F after flexural
cracking. When the load increased, distributed damage at the horizontal
interface between epoxy-based repair material and base concrete could beobserved in bothFCB2R-O and FCB2R-F; however, it was observable that
there is still some stress transfer across the interface. The bonding was notcompletely vanished by these small distributed cracks. At approximately 90
kN, large shear cracks formed in FCB2R-O (Figure 9b) and hence thedeflection of FCB2R-O was consequently increased. On the other hand, theformation of shear crack in FCB2R-F was prevented by the interface
between concrete and repair material. As the results, several shear cracks
were formed instead of a single large shear crack (Figure 9c). The FCB2RO was failed by crushing of concrete after shear crack fully propagatedwhile the failure of FCB2R-F was caused by a sudden rupture of epoxybased. The maximum loading capacity of FCB2R-I, FCB2R-O, and FCB2R-F were 154.12 kN, 171.77 kN, and 184.53 kN, respectively.
Figure 11 shows the comparison among different RC specimens in the
study. All corroded beams show a lower load carrying capacity whencompared with non-corroded RC of which the load carrying capacity wasapproximately 145 kN. Patching repair with polymer-modified mortar wasable to slight improve load carrying capacity of corroded RC; however, theload carrying capacity after repair is still less than the original capacity of
RC. The loss of load carrying capacity is caused mainly by the loss of crosssectional area of reinforcement. It should be also noted that the load
carrying capacity of the RC repaired with polymer-modified mortar reduced
when the patching length increased in this study. This may be due to a larger
effect of debonding between repairing material and base concrete in
specimen with longer patching area. The most interesting experimental
result in this study is that the patching repair with epoxy-based modified
mortar can restore or even strengthen the flexural capacity of RC. The
flexural capacity was increased up to 27% in the case of full-span patchingalthough there is no replacement of reinforcement. In addition, the ultimate
capacity increased when the patching length was longer. By comparing
FCB2R-O and FCB2R-F which have same cross section in the loading span,

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1. The structural behaviors of corroded RC specimens repaired bypatching method are different based on both mechanical propertiesof repairing materials and patching area. However, in all cases, therepairing improves the structural behaviors when compared withcorroded RC without repair.
2. When polymer modified mortar is used as a repairing material, thefailure of interface between repair materials is very likely to takeplace in the shear span. The interface failure disturbs the stress
distribution in shear span as well as reduces overall stiffness of therepaired RC.
3. Since the epoxy-based repair material is very ductile under tension,
the flexural cracking was not observable in the patching area
experimentally. The interface failure could also be successfully
prevented by a better bonding characteristic which change brittle
interface failure into distributed tiny cracks around the interface.
4. The load carrying capacity of RC repaired by epoxy-based repair
materials is higher than that of non-corroded RC. And theimprovement of load carrying capacity is greater for the longer
patching area.
REFERENCES
Al-Dulaijan, S.U. et al. (2002). “Effect of rebar cleanliness and repair
materials on reinforcement corrosion and flexural strength of repaired
concrete beams.” Cement & Concrete Composites, 24, 139-149.
Almusallam, A.A. (2001). “Effect of degree of corrosion on the propertiesof reinforcing steel bars.” Construction of Building Materials, 15,361-368.
The International Federation for Structural Concrete (1990). “CEB-FIP
Model Code 1990”
Emmons, P.H. and Vaysburd, A.M. (1996). “System concept in design andconstruction of durable concrete repairs.” Construction and Building
Materials, 10(1), 69-75.
JSCE, (2001), “Standard specifications for concrete structures –maintenance.” Japan Society of Civil Engineers.
Nounu, G. and Chaudhary, Z. (1999) “Reinforced concrete repairs inbeams.” Construction and Building Materials, 13, 195-212.
Shash, A.A. (2005) “Repair of concrete beams – a case study.” Construction
and Building Materials, 19, 75-79.
Toongoenthong, K. and Maekawa, K. (2005). “Multi-mechanical approachto structural performance assessment of corroded RC members inshear.” Journal of Advanced Concrete Technology, 3(1), 107-122.
Uomoto, T. and Misra, S. (1984). “Behavior of concrete beams and columns
in marine environment when corrosion of reinforcing bars takes
place.” ACI Special publication SP-109, 127-146

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SHAKING TABLE TEST OF TIMBER
MASONRY HOUSE MODELSRETROFITTED BY PP-BAND MESHESNAVARATNARAJAH SATHIPARAN1, PAOLA MA YORCA2
and KIMIRO MEGURO3
1
The University of Tokyo, Japan
2
ICUS, Institute of Industrial Science,
The University of Tokyo, Japan
3
ICUS, Institute of Industrial Science,
The University of Tokyo, Japansakthi@risk-mg.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
Unreinforced masonry is one of the most popular construction
materials in the world. It is also unfortunately, the most vulnerable against
earthquakes. Damage to unreinforced masonry buildings has caused huge
number of human casualties historically and during recent earthquakes indeveloping countries. Therefore, retrofitting of low earthquake-resistantmasonry structures is the key issue for earthquake disaster mitigation indeveloping countries to reduce the casualties significantly. When we
propose the retrofitting in developing countries, retrofitting method should
respond to the structural demand on strength and/or deformability as wellas to availability of material with low cost including manufacturing anddelivery, practicability of construction method and durability in each region.
Considering these issues of developing appropriate seismic retrofitting
techniques for masonry buildings to reduce the possible number ofcasualties due to future earthquakes in developing countries, a technicallyfeasible and economically affordable PP-band (polypropylene bands)
retrofitting technique has been developed and many different aspects havebeen studied by Meguro Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, The
University of Tokyo. PP-band is commonly used for packing.
In order to understand the dynamic response of masonry houses withand without PP-band mesh retrofitting, crack patterns, failure behavior,and overall effectiveness of the retrofitting technique, shaking table tests
were carried out. In this experimental program, ¼ scale single box shaperoom structure with wooden roof models were used. Addition to that, effectof surface plaster on PP-band retrofitted house model also studied.
From the experimental results, it was found that a scaled dwellingmodel with PP-band mesh retrofitting was able to withstand larger andmore repeatable shaking than that without PP band retrofitting, which allverified to reconfirm high earthquake resistant performance. When surface
finishing applied above house model, due to improve bond connection
between PP-band and brick wall, surface plaster kept well with wall.

105

October 2008, Beijing, China

1. INTRODUCTION
A real scale model test makes possible to obtain data similar to real
structures. However, it requires large size testing facilities and large amountresearch funds, so it is difficult to execute parametric tests by using fullscaled models. Recently, structural tests of scaled models become larger andlarger as the overall behavior of the system can be understood from scaled
model also. In this experimental program ¼ scale models were used toinvestigate the seismic behavior of masonry houses and effectiveness of PPband retrofitting technique.
2. EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM
2.1 Description of the specimens
For shaking table experiment, four models were built in the reduced
scale of 1:4 using the unburnt bricks as masonry units and cement, lime andsand (1:2.8:8.5) mixture as mortar with cement/water ratio of 33%.
Attention was paid to make the models as true replica of adobe masonrybuildings in developing countries in terms of masonry strength even though
the construction materials used were those available in Japan.
All the building models dimensions were 933mmx933mmx720mm
with 50mm thick walls. The sizes of door and window in opposite walls
were 243x485mm2 and 325x245mm2 respectively.

Figure 1: Model dimension (mm)All specimens consisted of 18 rows of 44 bricks in each layer except
openings. Construction process takes place in two days, first 11 rows in firstday and remaining rows construct in following day. The geometry,
construction materials and mix proportion, construction process andtechnique and other conditions that may affect the strength of the building

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models were kept identical for better comparison. The cross-section of theband used was 6mm×0.32mm and the pitch of the mesh was 40mm.
All four models were represented one-storey box-like building
including two models without surface finishing and other two models withsurface finishing. This simple geometry and boundary conditions wereconsidered as the data generated will be used for numerical modeling in
future.
The specimens were named according to the following convention:
B-R-P-S in which;
B is masonry unit,
A: unburned brick;
R is roof connection type,4: roof connected to all four walls;
P is retrofitted condition,
NR: non retrofitted
RE: retrofitted;
S is condition of surface finishing applied above masonry house,
X: no surface finishing applied
P: 7.5 mm surface finishing applied;
For surface finishing material mixing ratio as follows; Water: Cement:
Sand: Lime = 1.00: 0.14: 2.80: 1.11. Totally two models were retrofittedwith PP-band mesh after construction.
Table 1: Mechanical property of masonry specimens
Specimen

Diagonal
shear
strength (MPa)Compression
strength (MPa)

Shear
(MPa)

A-4-NR-X
A-4-RE-X
A-4-NR-P
A-4-RE-P

0.041
0.045
0.048
0.050

4.28
4.36
4.29
4.35

0.00570.00680.00610.0056

strength

Bond
Strength(MPa)0.00460.00460.00500.00482.2 Retrofitting Procedure
The procedure presented below is illustrated with photos taken during
the experimental program.
� PP-bands arranged in mesh fashion was prepared (because oforiginal purpose of the PP-bands is to serve as packing material, so
far PP-band meshes are not produced. we would like to gratefully
acknowledge SEKISUI JUSHI CORPORATION for providing thePP-band meshes used in the reported experimental program).
� PP-band mesh was cut in convenient size according to thedimension of the house.
� Straw, which placed in holes are removed (in this experiment,
during construction of model house, we placed the straw in where
we required a holes. Straw are placed at approximately 200mm
pitch. In real case holes can be prepared by drilling through thewall) and the model house walls are cleaned.

Shaking Table Test of Timber Masonry House Models Retrofitted by PP-band Meshes107October 2008, Beijing, China

� The meshes are installed on both sides of the wall and wrappedaround the corner wall edges. An overlapping length ofapproximately 300mm is recommendable.
� Wire is passed through the holes and used to connect the meshes on
the both wall sides. In order to prevent the wires cutting the PPbands, aluminum plates (20mm×20mm) were placed between theband and the wire. Initially, fixing the meshes with connectors
along the wall and at the foundation is recommendable.
� Connecting inner and outer meshes by wires and aluminum plates
except around the openings.
� Fixed connectors around the openings after the mesh was cut andoverlapped on the other side.

1. Cutting of PP-bandmesh in size

2. Wrapping the building from inside and outside by cut
mesh with some overlap and fixing of the PP-bandmeshes at foundation layer

4. Overlap of cut mesh of
openings to another side andfixing by connecters

3. Connecting inner and outer meshes bywires and aluminum plate (2cmx2cm) except
than openings and around openings andcutting of meshes in openings to overlap innext side

Figure 2: Retrofitting process by PP-band
2.3 Input motion
Simple easy-to-use sinusoidal motions of frequencies ranging from
2Hz to 35 Hz and amplitudes ranging from 0.05g to 1.4g were applied toobtain the dynamic response of both retrofitted and non-retrofitted structures.
This simple input motion was applied because of its adequacy for later use
in the numerical modeling. Figure 3 shows the typical shape of the appliedsinusoidal wave.

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Figure 3: Typical Shape of Input Sinusoidal Motion
Loading was started with a sweep motion of amplitude 0.05g with all
frequencies of 2Hz to 35Hz for identifying the dynamic properties of themodels. The numbers in table 2 indicate the run numbers. General trend ofloading was from high frequency to low frequency and from lower
amplitude to higher amplitude. Higher frequencies motions were skipped
towards the end of the runs.
Table 2: Loading Sequence
Amplitude
1.4g
1.2g
1.0g
0.8g
0.6g
0.4g
0.2g
0.1g
0.05g
sweep

2Hz
54
53
52
51
46
18
10

5Hz
50
49
48
47
45
44
25
17
09

10Hz

Frequency
15Hz 20Hz

25Hz

30Hz

35Hz

43
42
41
24
16
08

40
39
38
23
15
07

34
33
32
21
13
05

31
30
29
20
12
04

28
27
26
19
11
03

37
36
35
22
14
06
01,02

3. CRACK PATTERN AND FAILURE BEHAVIOR
3.1 Models A-4-NR-X & A-4-RE-X
In both specimens, due to shrinkage, some minor cracks wereobserved before the test. These cracks mainly appear closer to opening inhorizontal direction.
For non-retrofitted specimen (A-4-NR-X) up to Run 21, no major
crack was observed. Major cracks were observed closer to openings fromRun 23. At run 28, crack was observed at one of the top corner of the door
opening and it propagates up to top layer of the wall. After that, cracks
widened with each successive run. At run 44, there were large amountcracks observed in walls in the direction of shaking. Exciting cracks
widened and connection between adjacent walls was become weak. In caseof walls perpendicular to shaking direction, top part of the east wall (part,
above the door opening) was totally separated from the specimen. It was

Shaking Table Test of Timber Masonry House Models Retrofitted by PP-band Meshes109

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaremoved from specimen before next test run proceed. At run 45, all top partof the wall with opening was totally separated from the specimen. It was
fallen from specimen. Now the roof only supported by two walls, whichwere in the direction of shaking. Therefore, due to walls subjected to out-ofplane load; they were bursts outwards in shaking direction. This finally led
to the structure collapse.

East

South

East

South

North

West

North

West

Figure 4: Crack pattern after Run 28 (left) and after run 45(right) for
specimen A-4-NR-X
For retrofitted specimen (A-4-RE-X) up to run 21, no major crack
was observed in this model. Major cracks were observed closer to openings
from Run 25. After those new cracks appear in each run and cracks widenedwith each successive run, thus, extensive cracking was observed. Although
the PP-band mesh kept the structure integral during the shaking, it allowed
the sliding of the bricks along these cracks to some extent. In later stages,
there was significant permanent deformation of the structure. At the final
stage of the test, run 52, with 37.3mm base displacement, 6 times more than
the input displacement applied in run 45 and 2.5 times more velocity,
virtually all the brick joints were cracked and the building had substantial
permanent deformations. However, building did not loose the overall
integrity as well as stability and collapse was prevented in such a highintensity of shaking.

Figure 5: Specimen A-4-NR-X after run 45 (left)
Specimen A-4-RE-X after run 52 (right)

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3.2 Models A-4-NR-X & A-4-RE-X
For specimen A-4-NR-P, at run 26, major cracks were observed close
to connection between roof and south wall. At run 43, lot of damage
observed in the modal. Separation between east wall and its adjacent walls
was observed. Also lot of surface finishing separated from the walls. At run
44, Top corner of the east wall and its adjacent walls was totally separated
from specimen. At run 45, all the top part of the north and south walls was
totally separated form specimen. Now roof only supported by two walls,
which are in the perpendicular direction of shaking. This finally led to thestructure collapse at run 47 (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Specimen A-4-NR-P after run47
In case of the retrofitted model A-4-RE-P, similar cracks as nonretrofitted building started from top corner of the south wall in the run 33.
After that, the process of widening of the cracks occurred and propagationof new cracks continues until the run 50. Although at the end of 50th run
almost cracks observed in entire walls, the specimen did not lose stability.
Some bricks from bottom part of east wall were spilled out from PP-band
mesh. Therefore some looseness was observed in bottom part of the wall.
Even this very high input motion, most of the surface finishing still attachedwith walls.
At the final stage of the test, run 54, with 74.6 mm base displacement,
9 times more than the input displacement applied in run 47 and 3.7 times
more velocity, virtually all the brick joints were cracked and the building
had substantial permanent deformations. However, building did not loose
the overall integrity as well as stability and collapse was prevented in such ahigh intensity of shaking. Thus, PP-band retrofitting technique maintained
the integrity of the structural elements. Further, the retrofitted model
showed the better energy dissipation mechanism as many new cracks were
propagated without loosing the overall integrity and stability of the structure.
When we applied the surface finishing to house model, due to improvebond connection between PP-band and brick wall, surface plaster kept wellwith wall. This is not observed in non-retrofitted model. Because of this,Shaking Table Test of Timber Masonry House Models Retrofitted by PP-band Meshes111

October 2008, Beijing, China

brick unit confined effect inside the PP-band mesh is improved and it
improves the overall earthquake resistant performance.

Figure 7: Specimen A-4-NR-P after run 43 (left)
Specimen A-4-RE-P after run 48 (right)
4. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
The performances of the models were assessed based on the damage level ofthe buildings at different levels of shaking. Performances were evaluated inreference to five levels of performances: light structural damage, moderate
structural damage, heavy structural damage, partially collapse, and collapse.
Category
D0: No damage
D1: Light structural
damageD2: Moderate structural
damageD3: Heavy structural
damageD4: Partially collapse
D5: Collapse

Table 3: Damage categories

Damage extension
No damage to structure
Hair line cracks in very few walls. The structure resistancecapacity has not been reduce noticeably.
Small cracks in masonry walls, falling of plaster block. The
structure resistance capacity is partially reduced.
Large and deep cracks in masonry walls. Some bricks are fall
down. Failure in connection between two walls.
Serious failure of walls. Partial structural failure of roofs. The
building is in dangerous condition
Total or near collapse

The Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale (JMA) is ameasure used in Japan to indicate the strength of earthquakes. Unlike theRichter magnitude scale (which measures the total magnitude of theearthquake, and represents the size of the earthquake with a single number)
the JMA scale describes the degree of shaking at a point on the Earth's
surface.
The JMA scale was colored according to the following convention:
Index

JMA ~4

JMA 5-JMA 5+JMA 6-JMA 6+JMA 7

Table 4 shows the performances of non retrofitted model A-4-NR-X
and retrofitted model A-4-RE-X with different JMA intensities. Partial
collapse of the non-retrofitted building was occurred at the 44th run atintensity JMA 5-. The retrofitted building performed moderate structural112

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damage level at 45th run at which the non-retrofitted building was partiallycollapsed. Moreover, moderate structural damage level of performance wasmaintained until 50th run, leading to intensity JMA 6-. As the model was
already considerably deformed beyond the limit of measurement system,
test was stopped after the 52nd run. It should be noted again that this model
survived 7 more shakings in which many runs were with higher intensities
than JMA 5- at which the non-retrofitted building was collapsed before
reaching to the final stage at the 52nd run.
Table 4: Performance of A-4-NR-X and A-4-RE-X

Table 5 shows the performances of non retrofitted model A-4-NR-P
and retrofitted model A-4-RE-P with different JMA intensities. Total
collapse of the non-retrofitted building was occurred at the 47th run atintensity JMA 5+. The retrofitted building performed moderate structural
damage level at 47th run at which the non-retrofitted building was partiallycollapsed. Moreover, moderate structural damage level of performance wasmaintained until 48th run, leading to intensity JMA 6-. It should be noted
again that this model survived 7 more shakings in which many runs werewith higher intensities than JMA 5+ at which the non-retrofitted building
was collapsed before reaching to the final stage at the 54th run.
Table 5: Performance of A-4-NR-P and A-4-RE-P

6. CONCLUSION
Four adobe masonry building models, identical in terms of masonry strengthand geometry were constructed and two models were retrofitted with aneasy-to-install and economic retrofitting technique. Models were tested onshaking table by applying similar input motions. Dynamic behaviors of themodels were studied. Cracks patterns were analyzed and failure behavior
and performances were evaluated.

Shaking Table Test of Timber Masonry House Models Retrofitted by PP-band Meshes113

October 2008, Beijing, China

Shaking table test showed that; a scaled dwelling model with PPband mesh retrofitting is able to withstand larger and more
repeatable shaking than that without PP band retrofitting, which allverified to reconfirm high earthquake resistant performance.
� When we applied the surface finishing to house model, due toimprove bond connection between PP-band and brick wall, surface
plaster kept well with wall. This is not observed in non-retrofitted
model. Because of this, brick unit confined effect inside the PP-bandmesh is improved and it improves the overall earthquake resistantperformance.
From the experimental results, it was found that this retrofitting
technique can enhance safety of both existing and new masonry buildings
even in worst case scenario of earthquake ground motion like JMA 7
intensity. Therefore proposed method can be one of the optimum solutions
for promoting safer building construction in developing countries and cancontribute earthquake disaster in future.
�

REFERENCE
Sathiparan, N., 2008. Experimental Study on PP-Band Mesh Seismic
Retrofitting for Low Earthquake Resistant Masonry Houses,
Ph.D. Dissertation, The University of Tokyo, Japan.
Mayorca, P., 2003. Strengthening of Unreinforced Masonry Structures inEarthquake Prone Regions, Ph.D. Dissertation, The University ofTokyo, Japan.
T.Okada, F.Kumazawa, S.Horiuchi, M.Yamamoto, A.Fujioka, K.Shinozaki,
Y.Nakano, Shaking Table Tests of Reinforced Concrete Small Scaled
Model Structures, Bull. ERS, No.22 (1989).
Roko Zarnic, Samo Gostic, Adam J. Crewe and Colin A.Taylorm, Shaking
Table Tests of 1:4 Reduced Scale Models of Masonry Infilled
Reinforced Concrete Frame Buildings, Earthquake Engineering andStructural Dynamics. 2001, Vol.30, 819-834.
Alidad Hahemi and Khalid M.Mosalam, Shake-table Experiment on
Reinforced Concrete Structure Containing Masonry Infill Wall,
Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. 2006, Vol 35,
1827-1852.

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RELATION BETWEEN STRENGTH
REDUCTION AND DUCTILITY DEMAND
FOR PP-BAND MESH RETROFITTED
HOUSESPAOLA MAYORCA and KIMIRO MEGURO
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo
paola@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
Most earthquake related fatalities in developing countries are due tothe collapse of seismically weak adobe/masonry structures. It is, thus,
urgent to improve their seismic performance in order to reduce futurecasualties and to protect the existing housing stock. Inexpensive and easy to
implement technical solutions, such as retrofitting by PP-band meshes, aredesirable to promote the strengthening of weak houses. These bands,
commonly used for packing, are resistant, inexpensive, durable andworldwide available.
Experiments and advanced numerical simulations have shown that
PP-band meshes can dramatically increase the seismic capacity of
adobe/masonry houses. Although a simple design method has been outlined,
there are still some points to be clarified in order to apply it. One of this is
the relation between strength reduction factor and ductility demand.
Generally, the structures targeted for PP-band retrofitting are very weak
and therefore, strength reduction is high. Although retrofitting by PP-band
can provide large ductility reserve, too large deformations may result insecond order effects which could trigger the structure instability andcollapse.
In this paper, the relation between strength reduction factor andductility demand of PP-band mesh retrofitted houses is discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
Collapse of weak adobe/masonry houses is responsible for most of thefatalities due to earthquakes in developing countries. Furthermore, theconsequent property losses are a threat to the sustainable development ofthese regions. The only way to change this situation is to increase theseismic resistance of the existing housing stock. Because people living inthis type of structures have limited resources, inexpensive and easy to
implement solutions are necessary. Retrofitting by polypropylene band (PPband) meshes satisfies these requirements. These bands commonly used for
packing are resistant, inexpensive, durable and worldwide available.

115

October 2008, Beijing, China

PP-band meshes are wrapped on both sides of the walls and attachedwith wire connectors. After meshes are installed the wall is plastered witheither mud, in case of adobe houses, or mortar, in case of brick structures.
This cover protects the meshes from the ultraviolet radiation and otherexternal agents, fills any gaps that may be left between the mesh and thewall after its installation, improves the bond between mesh, mortar, and wall,and gives a good appearance to the retrofitted structure.
Experiments and numerical simulations have shown that PP-bandmeshes improve the seismic performance of otherwise poor earthquake
resistant adobe/masonry houses. This is mainly achieved by increasing thestructure ductility and energy dissipation capacities. Under moderate groundmotions, PP-band meshes provide enough seismic resistance to guaranty
limited and controlled cracking of the retrofitted structures. Under
extremely strong ground motions, they are expected to prevent or delay thecollapse, thus, increasing the survival ratio.
Although a simple design method has been outlined, there are stillsome points to be clarified in order to apply it. One of this is the relation
between strength reduction factor, Rd, and ductility demand, �dem. In thispaper, the proposed design method is briefly introduced and then the Rd�dem relation discussed. Issues requiring further study are also pointed out.
2. PROPOSED DESIGN METHODOLOGY
The scope of the design methodology proposed hereinafter is 1-story
adobe/masonry houses with flat roofs. Structures with vault/dome roofs are
not considered. Figure 1 shows the flowchart of the proposed retrofitting
design. The process can be summarized as follows:
1. Determine the original structure strength, Vc, and natural period, T.
2. Calculate the elastic base shear, V, according to the regional
seismic code.
3. From the relation between V and Vc, estimate the strength
reduction factor, Rd.
4. Choose a certain PP-band mesh density, D, and determine theductility demand, �dem, from the �dem versus Rd graph, and also the
maximum displacement, �max=�dem × first cracking displacement.
5. Assess �max.
If �max is acceptable, proceed with out-of-plane verification.
If �max is unacceptable, reduce the �dem. Repeat the calculation.
6. Verify that out-of-plane deformations do not cause instability
Determining the properties of existing structures is not easy especiallyfor adobe/masonry houses due to their low quality and great variability.
Because these structures are stiff compared to the PP-band stiffness, theirinitial natural period does not change after retrofitting. Furthermore,experiments have shown that PP-band meshes do not increase the structure
strength before cracking. Therefore, it can be assumed that the retrofitted
structure will have the same Vc and T as the original, unreinforced, house.

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ICUS Report 31
�c

Vc

From Seismic Code
Determine existing structural
conditions: Vc and T

V

Calculate base shear, V
Calculate Rd = V / Vc
Select PP-band density, D
Determine �dem, �max

• Increase PP-band
density: �dem �• Add strong mortar
cover: Rd �
• Increase wall
density: Rd �NO�max acceptable?

T
�dem

D1
D2

Rd
From statistical analysis

YES

Out-of-plane verification
END

Figure 1: Flowchart of the proposed design methodology
The expected Rd will be fairly high due to the relatively low resistanceof the adobe/masonry houses. The higher the reduction factor, the larger theductility demand will be, as shown schematically in Figure 1. Intuitively thelarger the PP-band mesh density, the less �dem for the same Rd.
Large deformations and controlled damage are anticipated in PP-bandmesh retrofitted structures. Therefore, the most important points to check inthe design are maximum displacements at the corners (maximum acceptabledisplacement associated with in-plane actions) and the wall body (out-ofplane verification). Secondary order effects should be avoided. Excessive
out-of-plane wall deformations will reduce their in-plane resistance capacity.
If displacements due to in-plane actions are unacceptable, �dem should
be reduced. This can be achieved by increasing the PP-band density.
Another solution is to reduce Rd by adding a strong mortar cover, i.e.
increasing Vc, or providing additional walls so that the demand on each ofthem is lower. The latter, however, is more expensive and probably difficult
to accept by the house owner. In either case, there will be an increase inmass and as a result V needs to be recalculated.
3. STRENGTH REDUCTION VERSUS DUCTILITY DEMAND
As mentioned in the previous section, the relation between Rd and �dem fordifferent PP-band mesh densities is needed to estimate the maximum
displacement that the structure will experience. In order to develop a simple
relation between these two parameters, non-linear time history analyses ofseveral structures subjected to various strong ground motions were carried
out.

Relation between Strength Reduction and Ductility Demand for PP-Band Mesh Retrofitted Houses

117October 2008, Beijing, China
V

V

Vc

Vr

Kr

Kr

V’c
Ko

Ko

�

�c

�’c

�

Figure 2: Idealization of shear force versus lateral deformation
for a wall retrofitted with PP-band mesh3.1 Parametric study conditions
Static monotonic tests have shown that the shear force – lateral
deformation curve of a PP-band retrofitted walls can be roughly idealized asshown in the left curve of Figure 2. Vc and �c correspond to the shear
strength and cracking deformation of the original wall whereas Vr and Kr
correspond to the residual strength and stiffness after the wall cracking. The
first two parameters are mainly dependent on the masonry itself, Vr depends
on both masonry and PP-band mesh and Kr depends mostly on PP-band.
Under cyclic loading, the skeleton curve resembles the monotonic one witha gradually decreasing unloading stiffness.
To model the retrofitted adobe/masonry structures, the skeleton curve
was further idealized as shown on the right side graph of Figure 2.
Additionally, the hysteresis was represented with a Modified Clough modelwith unloading degrading stiffness. Two additional parameters to control thelater decay are necessary. In total, the model is completely defined with fiveparameters. The comparison between the force deformation curve obtainedwith experiments and the proposed model is discussed elsewhere (Mayorca
and Meguro, 2008)
A total of 144 strong ground motion records were considered. All ofthem were recorded at sites with average shear wave velocities higher than
180 m/s in the upper 30 m of the soil profile. In all the cases, the peakground acceleration (PGA) was larger than 0.1g and they were recorded onfree field or the first floor of low-rise buildings. All the records have highfrequency contents below 0.4s. The natural period of 1-story adobe/masonry
structures fall in this range.
Four structures with mechanical properties representing single story
adobe/masonry houses and three different weight roofs as detailed in Table
1 were considered. The parameters were chosen so as to represent one of thetwo main walls of a 3m-high, 3m-long, 1-story adobe/brick house. In all thecases, Vr/Vo was considered equal to 0.75, a value which experiments haveshown is relatively easy to achieve by tightly attaching an adequate volume
of PP-band mesh.
Structure type
Adobe
Brick

118

Table 1: Structures considered for the study
Vc [kN]
35
100

Ko [kN/mm]
10
50

Kr/Ko
0.00, -0.02
0.00, -0.02

Mass [×103 kg]
8.70, 12.75, 17.25
8.70, 12.75, 17.25

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ICUS Report 31

3.2 Results and discussion
Figure 3 show the force-deformation curves of two groups ofstructures, with different roofs, subjected to the same strong ground motion
record. Because the adobe structure has lower strength, the ductility demandis larger. Structures with heavier roofs experience larger inertial forces andtherefore larger ductility demands.

Adobe (Kr/Ko = 0.0)
Brick (Kr/Ko = -0.2)(a) Roof mass = 8.7 ×103 kg

Adobe (Kr/Ko = 0.0)
Brick (Kr/Ko = -0.2)(b) Roof mass = 12.75 ×103 kg

Brick (Kr/Ko = -0.2)
Adobe (Kr/Ko = 0.0)(c) Roof mass = 17.25 ×103 kg
Figure 3: Results of the nonlinear analysis, input motion: Northridge Eq.,
Station USGSVA 637
For all the records and structures analyzed, �dem and Rd were
determined and plotted as shown in Figures 4 and 5. Maximum Rd for adobe
and masonry structures were 10.9 and 3.4, respectively. The values of �dem
were 41.5 and 23.6 in the same cases. Regression functions were determinedfor each group as shown in Table 2 and are shown in thick lines in Figures 4
and 5. In general, the results are scattered, especially for adobe structures.
For instance, for Rd equal to 3, �dem ranges from 2 to 35, if Kr/Ko=0, andfrom 2 to 20, if Kr/Ko= -0.2.

Relation between Strength Reduction and Ductility Demand for PP-Band Mesh Retrofitted Houses

119October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 2: Regression functions obtained for each of the group structuresconsidered in the study
Structure type

Adobe
Brick

Kr/Ko
0.00
-0.02
0.00
-0.02

Regression function
�dem = 1.0018×Rd1.4539
�dem = 1.0121×Rd1.4873
�dem = 1.0247×Rd1.5359
�dem = 0.9905×Rd1.6512

R2
0.620
0.630
0.66
0.71

The large scatter does not seem to be caused by the post-peaksoftening behavior of the structure. Groups with different values of Kr/Ko
give similar scattered results. Nor does it seem to be caused by the used
strong ground motion records, which have similar characteristics.
Additional evaluation of the model used is necessary to grasp the causes ofthe dispersed results.
Even though the results require further evaluation, a few conclusions
may be drawn. For instance, it seems that the factor Kr/Ko does not affectconsiderably the maximum displacements experienced by the structure.
Initial and residual strengths (Vo, Vr) are more important as suggested inprevious studies. Also, for Rd values lower than 9, �dem may be considered
at most 9 for adobe structures. For masonry, a �dem of at most 5, may be
expected for Rd up to 4.
A more comprehensive statistical analysis, considering more strong
ground motion records and structures with larger Rd is required to reach to a
final expression of �dem as a function of Rd.

(a) Kr/Ko = 0.0(b) Kr/Ko = -0.2

Figure 4: Strength reduction versus ductility demand for adobe structures(a) Kr/Ko = 0.0(b) Kr/Ko = -0.2

Figure 5: Strength reduction versus ductility demand for masonry structure120

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4. MAXIMUM ACCEPTABLE DISPLACEMENT AND OUT-OFPLANE VERIFICATION
A maximum acceptable displacement or drift should be defined to guaranty
the structure stability. Material tests have shown that PP-band retrofitted
walls under in-plane loads can tolerate very large drifts, in the order of 10%
or more, without losing their in-plane resistance capacity. However, suchlarge deformations along the plane of certain walls will cause excessive outof-plane deformations on the walls perpendicular to them. If a structuralwall is excessively damaged by out-of-plane actions, its ability to resist inplane forces will be reduced.
There are two ways to take into account the interaction of the in-planeand out-of-plane actions on the wall in the design. One is to reduce the inplane resistance with a penalty factor which should be a function of the
maximum out-of-plane displacement. Although presently this point is understudy, so far there is no model to determine what factor would beappropriate. Another way is to limit the maximum acceptable displacement
to a conservative low value. Although more analyses and calculations are
required to determine the most appropriate value, at this point, it isrecommended to set it as a half of the wall thickness so that the resultant ofvertical loads on the wall (under out-of-plane actions) always falls within
the limits of the wall base.
The maximum acceptable displacement discussed in the previous
paragraphs corresponds to the drift of the walls under in-plane actions or inother words, to the displacement of the walls subjected to out-of-planeactions at their side borders. If the unsupported length of the walls underout-of-plane actions is too long, the center of the walls may be subjected toconsiderable larger displacements perpendicular to their plane. Presently, amodel to determine the displacements due to out-of-plane seismic actions
for PP-band retrofitted walls is being developed.
Experiments have shown that attaching the PP-band mesh so that it iswrapped around the roof frame can greatly contribute to control out-ofplane displacements. Whenever possible, it is recommended to install themesh in this way. Another solution to limit out-of-plane displacements inwalls with large length/height ratio is to provide intermediate supports bymeans of pilasters well attached to the wall with PP-band meshes.
5. CONCLUSIONS
A methodology to design 1-story, flat roof, adobe/masonry houses with PPband meshes was briefly introduced and the Rd-�dem relation, necessary forit, discussed. Although a final formulation for this relation is not proposed
yet, some conclusions were drawn from the statistical non-linear time
history analysis. Maximum lateral drift and out-of-plane deformations werealso discussed and remaining issues to be addressed pointed out. It is
important to keep in mind that the outlined design procedure is just one step
towards the development of a simple set of rules of thumb than can be usedin the field for determining the most appropriate PP-band mesh arrangement
for each particular situation.

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121October 2008, Beijing, China

Permanent displacements are expected when PP-band mesh retrofitted
structures are subjected to strong ground motions. If these are too large, theremaining structure may be either unusable or too expensive to repair. This
information is very important to assess the suitability of PP-band meshretrofitting, taking into account initial investment and eventual reparation
costs. A procedure to evaluate permanent displacements of PP-band meshretrofitted structures will be investigated in the future.
REFERENCES
Guragain, R., Mayorca P., Kawin W., and Meguro K. 2006. Simulation ofbrick masonry wall behavior under in-plane cyclic loading using
applied element method, Proc. of the 8th International Summer
Symposium of JSCE, pp. 55-58.
Mayorca, P., Sathiparan, N., Guragain, R., Nesheli, N., and Meguro, K.
2006. Seismic Behavior of Masonry Houses Retrofitted with PP-Band
Meshes Evaluated through Shaking Table Tests, Proc. of the 1st
European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology,
Geneva, Switzerland, CD-ROM.
Mayorca, P. and Meguro, K. 2008. A Step Towards the Formulation of a
Simple Method to Design PP-Band Mesh Retrofitting for
Adobe/Masonry Houses, Proc. of the 14th World Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China.
Miranda, E. 2000. Inelastic displacement ratios for structures on firm sites,
Journal of Structural Engineering, Vol. 126, No. 10.
Sathiparan, N., Mayorca, P., Nesheli, N., Guragain, R., and Meguro, K.
2005. In-plane and Out-of-plane behavior of PP-band retrofitted
masonry wallettes. Proc. of the 4th International Symposium on New
Technologies for Urban Safety of Megacities in Asia, Singapore.
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center Strong Ground
Motion Database, peer.berkeley.edu/smcat/

122

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

STRENGTH AND DURABILITYCONSIDERATION OF BRICK AGGREGATE
CONCRETE CONTAINING FLY ASH
M. A. NOOR and A. R. KAOSER
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000,
Bangladesh
mnoor@ce.buet.ac.bd
ABSTRACTThe result of a study on the properties of concrete made of burnt clay
aggregate instead of crushed stone aggregate containing fly ash ispresented herein. In subcontinent this burnt clay aggregate concrete,
popularly known as brick aggregate concrete, is very popular in theconcrete construction industry due to economic reasons. Mainly hardened
properties are reported. Concrete were made by weight using both CEM I
cement and CEM I with different percentage of fly ash in it. Locallyavailable natural river sand popularly known as Sylhet sand was used.
Mixtures were proportioned to have similar slump and constant powder
content. Fly ash content ranging from 0 to 30 percent by weights of CEM I
was used. Water to powder ratio ranging from 0.4 to 0.5 by weight was used.
Comparison was also made with the concrete made of natural crushed stoneaggregate. It is shown that concrete containing fly ash is more durable. It isalso shown that brick aggregate concrete is less durable than crushed stone
concrete. Laboratory specimens tested for compressive strength, sulfuric
acid degradation, chloride penetration, are presented.
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of fly ash as a component in concrete is now extremely common in
Bangladesh and elsewhere. Fly ash used in concrete for reasons including
economics, improvements and reduction in temperature rise in fresh
concrete, workability and contribution to durability and strength in hardened
concrete. Fly ash makes efficient use of the products of the hydration ofPortland cement. Solution of calcium and alkali-hydroxide, which exist in
the pore structure of the cement paste and the heat, generated by hydrationof Portland cement, an important factor in initiating the reaction of the flyash. It is well known that the properties of concrete are closely related to its
microstructure and products of hydration (Jiang, 1998; Ramachandran et. el.,1981; Ben-Bassat et. el., 1990). The microstructure and products ofhydration of concrete depend on its reaction and progress of hydration. It is
important to know about the characteristics of hydration in fly ash concretebinder.
Chloride diffusion is largely concerned when durability is considered.
The chloride-induced corrosion can cause significant deterioration of123

October 2008, Beijing, China

reinforced concrete structures, resulting in costly repair (Berke et. el., 1988).
The water powder ratio is an important control parameter in concrete mix
proportioning. The properties controlled by w/p ratio in conventional
concrete, are workability and durability. Soluble sulfates which exist in soils,
ground waters and sewage waste corrode and eventually destroy Portland
cement concrete unless it is designated with fly ash to maximize sulfate
resistance. In recent years, it has become evident that some fly ashes
increase the sulfate resistance of concrete while other fly ashes encourage
the deterioration of concrete in a sulfate environment. Current ACI
recommendation (ACI 226, 3R-92) for selecting fly ash to be used insulfate-resistant concrete are based on research performed at the UnitedStates Bureau of Reclamation (Dikeou, 1975; Dunstan, 1980).
In developed countries, many experiments have been done on theproperties of fly ash concrete. In those experiments fly ash with stone chips
as coarse aggregate are generally used. Recently in Bangladesh many
contractors have used fly ash, with brick aggregate, as cementitious material.
This paper deals with locally available materials such as brick aggregate,coarse sand and fly ash available in Bangladesh (Indian fly ash). The
experimental research program outlined here is carefully designed toinvestigate the strength and durability properties of brick aggregate concrete.
Compressive strength of concrete at different w/c ratio will be studied using
different percentage of fly ash. The study will also include the investigationof chloride and sulfate resistance of concrete at different percentages of fly
ash with constant w/p ratio.
2. RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE
In the subcontinent brick aggregate is very popular due to economic reason.
It is important to ascertain the durability of this type of concrete against
chlorine and sulphate attack. It is also important to know the behavior of fly
ash with brick aggregate concrete. This research is conducted to evaluate theeffect of fly ash on compressive strength and durability (mainly chloride andsulfate resistance) of concrete made of brick aggregate.
3. TEST PROCDEDURES
The physical properties of brick and fine aggregate and both physical andchemical properties of cement and fly ash have been evaluated. ASTM
standard testing procedure was followed.
Physical properties
Different physical properties of both fine and coarse aggregate havebeen evaluated following different ASTM codes. Fineness modulus, unit
weight and specific gravity of coarse aggregate have been performed
according to ASTM C117-95, ASTM C29-97 and ASTM C127-88,
respectively. Physical properties like fineness, setting time and compressive
strength of both cement and fly ash have been tested according to ASTM
C115-96, ASTM C191-99 and ASTM C150-00, respectively. The chemicalcompositions of OPC and fly ash have been tested according to ASTM

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C618-00. Compressive strength of concrete has been tested as per ASTM
C39-01. Chloride resisting test of fly ash brick aggregate concrete has been
performed according to BS 812: Part 117: 1988. A non-standard test has
been performed for determining the deterioration rate of sulfate-ion on
concrete. Physical properties of aggregate and cement are given in Table 1
and 2. Gradation curve for fine aggregate and brick aggregate used for the
study are shown in Figure 1 and 2.
Table 1: Physical properties of aggregate
Specific gravity
Fineness modulus
Absorption (%)

Fine Aggregate
2.64
2.47
1

Brick Aggregate
1.87
7.62
9.7

Table 2: Physical properties of cement

Physical properties of cement
Fineness, m²/kg
Initial setting time, min
Final setting time, min

348
85
250

110
100
90
80

% finer

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0.01

0.1

1

10

Sieve size, (mm)Figure 1: Gradation of fine aggregate
Chemical properties
Chemical properties of cement and fly ash are done following ASTM
standards mentioned earlier and given in Table 3.
110
100
90
80

% finer

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0.1

1

10

100

Sieve size, (mm)Figure 2: Gradation of brick aggregate

Strength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly Ash125

October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 3: Chemical properties of cement and fly ash
Silicon dioxide, SiO2
Aluminum oxide, Al2O3
Ferric oxide, Fe2O3
Ammonium hydroxide group

Fly ash (%)
53
27.6
6.2
33.8

OPC (%)
21.5
5.3
2.5
7.8

Sulfur trioxide, SO3

2.6

2.7

Calcium oxide, CaO
Magnesium oxide, MgO

5.0
3.0

64.5
1.2

Loss on ignition
Others

0.8
--

1
1.3

4. PARAMETER USED
Water to powder ratio used in the study is in the range of 0.4 to 0.5.
Variation of fly ash used in the current study is in the range of 0 to 30
percent (Table 4). Mix design were prepared using these above ranges andgiven in Table 5. After mixing and cured for 1 day samples were kept underwater having different chloride concentration and sulphuric acid strength fordurability test. Variation of chloride concentration and sulphuric acidstrength used in the present study are given in Table 4. After submerging thesamples for 14, 28 and 90 days under respective solutions samples were
tested for penetration depth. Chloride ion and sulpher ion penetration depth
in the samples were calculated. Compressive strengths are also performed in
the respective days to observe the reduction of concrete strength from thecontrol mix.
Table 4: Variation of parameters taken for study

w/p0.4, 0.45, 0.5

w/p
ratio
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.4
0.4

126

Fly
ash
(%)
0
15
30
0
15
30
0
15
30

Chloride
Concentration(mol/L)0.1, 0.35, 0.7

Sulphuric acid strength(mol/L)[pH]
0.01 [2], 0.1[1], 0.5[0.3]Fly ashreplacement(%)
0, 15, 30

Table 5: Mix proportions used for the present study
Water(kg/m³)

Cement(kg/m³)Fly ash(kg/m³)

185
185
185
172
172
172
158.5
158.5
158.5

370
314.5
259
383
325.55
268
396.5
337
277.5

55.5
111
57.45
115
59.5
119

Fine
aggregate(kg/m³)
630
630
630
630
630
630
630
630
630

Coarseaggregate(kg/m³)
1170
1170
1170
1170
1170
1170
1170
1170
1170

Slump
(mm)
36
33
35
32
33
30
30
31
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5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
5.1 Compressive strength
Compressive strength test of the concrete samples is performed for
different w/p ratio and different fly ash replacement. For a constant w/p
ratio and at a particular age concrete strength decreases with the increase of
fly ash replacement (Figure 3). This observation is expected and also valid
for brick aggregate concrete. Compressive strength of concrete also depends
on the physical properties of aggregates. It should also be noted that brickaggregate concrete always gives lower strength than stone aggregate
concrete at particular age and w/p ratio, which is shown in Figure 4.
30

0.45 w/p ratio

Comp. strength, (MPa)

25
20
15
10

0 % fly ash
15 % fly ash
30 % fly ash

5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50
60
Age, (day)

70

80

90

100

Figure 3: Variation of compressive strength with age
Interesting to note that strength is independent of fly ash replacement
at 90 days (Figure 3 and Figure 5). For a constant powder content
irrespective of fly ash replacement should give same strength at or after 90
days. This can reduce the cost of concrete if 90 days concrete compressive
strength can be used during the design.
5.2 Chloride ion penetration depth
Concrete samples were kept under solution of different concentrationof chloride ion. Samples were tested for chloride ion penetration depth at 14,
28 and 90 days of submersion. Penetration depth increases with age for aparticular chloride concentration. Here only control curve (no fly ash) is
shown (Figure 6). Similar results are obtained for other fly ash replacements.
Fly ash replacement has a profound effect on depth of penetration. Depth ofpenetration decreases with the increases of fly ash replacement (Figure 7).

Strength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly Ash127

October 2008, Beijing, China

35

Comp. strength, (MPa)

30
25
20
15
10
Stone concrete
Brick concrete

5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50
60
Age, (day)

70

80

90

100

Figure 4: Comparison of strength between brick and stone aggregate
concrete35

90 daysComp. strength, (MPa)

30
25
20
15
10

0 % fly ash
15 % fly ash
30 % fly ash

5
0
0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

w/p ratio

Figure 5: Compressive strength at 90 days
35
0% fly ash

Penetration depth, (mm)

30
25
20
15
10

0.7 mol/L
0.35 mol/L

50.1 mol/L

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 110 120

Age, (day)Figure 6: Variation of penetration depth with age
Present study also calculates the percentage of chloride ion at aparticular depth for chloride ion concentration and fly ash replacement. Here,
only the results for fly ash are shown (Figure 8). Later average percentage
of chloride ion is calculated and reported here. Average chloride ion
percentage increases with the age of submersion. Fly ash help reduces theion percentage at a particular concentration. Brick aggregate concrete is128

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porous concrete than stone aggregate concrete. Percentage of chloride ion atparticular depth, for a particular concentration and age of submersion, ismore in brick aggregate concrete than stone aggregate concrete, which isshown in Figure 9.

Penetration depth, (mm)35

0.7 mol/L

30
25
20
15
10

0 % fly ash
15 % fly ash
30 % fly ash

5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50 60 70
Age, (day)80

90 100 110 120

Figure 7: Variation of penetration depth with age
0 .3 5
0 .7 m o l/L

Chloride ion, (%)

0 .3
0 .2 50 .2
0 .1 50 .1

0 % fly as h
1 5 % fly a s h
3 0 % fly a s h

0 .0 5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 100 110 120

A ge , (d a y )Figure 8: Variation of chloride ion percentage with age
0.8

Chloride ion, (%)

0.7

Stone concrete
Brick concrete

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

10
20
30
Distance from exterior surface, (mm)40

Figure 9: Comparison of chlorine ion percentage with aggregate typeStrength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly Ash129

October 2008, Beijing, China

Compressive strength of the concrete also decreases with thepenetration of chloride ion and depth of penetration. Figure 10 gives anindication of strength reduction for 90 day submersion and solution of 0.7
mol/L. For control concrete reduction is higher with the age but for concretewith 30 percent fly ash reduction decreases with age. This is a very
important finding because permeability of fly ash decreases with age thus
reducing the chloride ion percentage as well as depth of penetration. Thus,
decreases the compressive strength reduction of concrete.
Age, (day)Reducction of Compressive
strength, (%)

0
-5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.7 mol/L

-10
-15
-20
-25

Control-30

30% Fly Ash

-35
-40

Figure 10: Reduction of compressive strength with age
5.3 Sulphuric acid degradation
Concrete samples were kept under solution of different concentrationof sulphuric for durability test. Samples were tested for degradation depth at
14, 28 and 90 days of submersion. Degradation depth increases with age fora different acid concentration for a particular fly ash replacement (Figure11). Similar results are obtained for other fly ash replacements. Fly ash
replacement has a profound effect on depth of degradation. Depth ofdegradation decreases with the increases of fly ash replacement (Figure 12).
1430% F ly Ash
Depth of degradation, (mm)

12
10
8
6
0.01 m ol/L
0.1 m ol/L
0.5 m ol/L

4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50
60
70
A ge, (day)

80

90

100

110

120

Figure 11: Variation of degradation depth with age
Fly ash help reduces the ion percentage at a particular concentration.
Brick aggregate concrete is porous concrete than stone aggregate concrete.
degradation for a particular acid concentration and age of submersion, is

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more in brick aggregate concrete than stone aggregate concrete, which isshown in Figure 13.
Depth of degradation, (mm)14120.5 mol/L

10
8
6
4

0 % fly ash
15 % fly ash
30 % fly ash

2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age, (day)Figure 12: Variation of degradation depth with age
Compressive strength of the concrete also decreases with thepenetration of sulphuric ion and depth of penetration. Figure 14 gives anindication of strength reduction for 90 day submersion and solution of 0.5
mol/L. For control concrete reduction is higher with the age but for concretewith 30 percent fly ash reduction decreases with age. This is a very
important as permeability of fly ash decreases with age thus reducing thechloride ion percentage as well as depth of degradation. Thus, decreases thecompressive strength reduction of concrete.

Depth of degradation, (mm)

14
12
10
8
6
4

Stone concrete
Brick concrete

2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age, (day)Figure 13: Comparison of degradation depth for with aggregate typeStrength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly Ash131

October 2008, Beijing, China
Age, (day)Reducction of Compressive
strength, (%)

0
-5

0

-10
-15
-20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.5 mol/L
Control
30% Fly Ash

-25
-30
-35
-40

Figure 14: Reduction of compressive strength with age
6. CONCLUSIONSThe compressive strength of cement-replaced fly ash concrete is lower thanthat of concrete and mortar without fly ash at the early age (14 and 28 days),
since the pozzolanic reaction proceeds slowly. But due to continued
pozzolanic reaction, cement-replaced fly ash concrete develops greater
strength at later age (90 days), almost equal to the strength of concrete
without fly ash. Moreover, strength of concrete depends on aggregate
physical properties. From the experiment it is found that strength of stoneaggregate concrete is higher than that of brick aggregate concrete.
The chloride-ion penetration resistance suggests that cementreplaced fly ash concrete perform better than that of concrete without fly ash.
Rate of chloride-ion penetration for fly ash concrete is lower than that ofconcrete without fly ash. This suggests that where durability of reinforced
concrete (against chloride ingress) is the primary requirement fly ash can beused as an admixture to produce dense concrete. Chloride ion penetration in
concrete also depends on aggregate physical properties. From theexperiment it is found that chloride ion penetration in brick aggregate
concrete is higher than stone aggregate concrete.
It has been also found that pozzolanic material like fly ash reduces
the sulfate attack. The pozzolanic material like fly ash is responsible forimpermeability of concrete. Fly ash makes concrete dense to ingress sulfateion in it. Thus, cement-replaced fly ash concrete reduces sulfate-ion
deterioration rate. Degradation of concrete due to sulfuric acid attack also
depends on aggregate physical properties. From the experiment it is foundthat degradation of brick aggregate concrete is higher than stone aggregate
concrete.
REFERENCES
ASTM C39/C39M-01 (2001) Standard Test Method for Compressive Strengthof Cylindrical Concrete Specimens, ASTM International, WestConshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.

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ASTM Standard C29-97 (2003) Standard Test Methods for bulk density andVoids in aggregate, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA,
www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C115-96a (1999) Standard Test Method for Fineness ofPortland Cement by the Turbidimeter, ASTM International, WestConshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C117-95 (2005) Standard Test Method for Materials Finer
than 75-μm (No. 200) Sieve in Mineral Aggregates by Washing, ASTM
International, West Conshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C127-88 (1999) Standard Test Method for Specific Gravity
and Absorption of Coarse Aggregate, ASTM International, WestConshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C128-97 (1999)Standard Test Method for Specific Gravity
and Absorption of Fine Aggregate, ASTM International, WestConshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C150-00 (2001) Standard Specification for Portland Cement,
ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C191-99 (1999) Standard Test Method for Time of Setting of
Hydraulic Cement by Vicat Needle, ASTM International, WestConshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
ASTM Standard C618-00 (2001)Standard Specification for Coal Fly Ash and
Raw or Calcined Natural Pozzolan for Use as a Mineral Admixture inConcrete, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, www.astm.org.
Ben-Bassat, M., Nixon, P. J. and Hard Castle, J., (1990), “The Effect ofDifferences in Composition of Portland Cement on Properties ofHardened Concrete,” Magazine of Concrete Research, V.42, No.151,
PP:59-66.
Berke, N. S.; Pfeifer, D. W. and Weil, T. G., (1988), Protection Against
Chloride-Induced Corrosion, Concrete International, V.10, No.12, PP.4555.
Dikeou, J. T., (1985), “Effect of Fly Ash on Concrete,” Research Report No. 23,
USBR, Denver.
Dunstan, E. R. Jr. (1980), “Possible Method for Identifying Fly Ashes That
Will Improve Sulfate Resistance”, Cement, Concrete and Aggregates,
CCAGDP, V.2, No.1, PP.20-30.
Jiang, L. H. (1998), “Studies on Hydration, Microstructure, and Mechanism ofHigh Volume Fly Ash Concrete,” Ph.D. thesis, Hohai University,
Nanjing, China.
Ramachandan, V. S., Feldman, R. F. and Beaudoin, J. J., (1981), “Concrete
Science, Heyden and Son Ltd., London.

Strength and Durability Consideration of Brick Aggregate Concrete Containing Fly Ash133

October 2008, Beijing, China

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MECHANICAL BEHAVIOR OF CONCRETE
MEMBER SUBJECTED TO REPEATEDIMPULSIVE FORCEHIROSHI YOKOTA1, M. IWANAMI2, S. TAKAHASHI2
and T. MATSUBASHI2
1
ICUS, IIS, The University of Tokyo, Japan
2
Port and Airport Research Institute, Japanhyokota@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThis paper deals with impulsive forces acting on marine concrete
structures due to wave breaking and structural response against theseforces. At first, the characteristics of impulsive forces generated by wave
breaking were investigated by hydraulic experimental tests. The dynamic
response of reinforced concrete beams was also investigated by applying
these forces repeatedly. Then, structural behavior of reinforced concretebeams was examined by falling weight impact loading tests. Furthermore, toenhance structural capacity, the applicability of PVA short fiber was
discussed. It was found that the number of repetitions of impact force
applications at the ultimate state is greatly affected by the impact velocity.
Also, it was made clear that the impact resistance of reinforced concrete
members will be improved when mixing PVA short fiber with concrete.
1. INTRODUCTION
Repeated impulsive forces due to waves often apply to marine structuralmembers during storms, which may bring catastrophic effects. In fact, many
examples of collapse due to repeated impulsive forces by wave breaking
have been collected in reinforced concrete (RC) walls of breakwater
caissons (Takahashi, et al., 1998a). In the present design of such concrete
structures, the impulsive wave force, which has large variations with regard
to time and space, is converted into equivalent distributed static loads inorder to compare to the load carrying capacity of structures in static
conditions. Therefore, it is one of the problems that scatters of impulsive
wave forces and dynamic behavior of concrete structures are not taken into
account.
Many studies have been undertaken experimentally and analytically tomake clear the structural performance of RC members against impulsive
forces. Most of them are for impulsive forces caused by falling of rocks,
collision of cars/vessels, etc. Few studies, however, have been carried out
against impulsive forces caused by ocean waves. The major differences
between impulsive forces due to ocean waves and those due to falling or
collision are the number and duration of the forces applied. The impulsive
force by wave breaking is characterized that it applies to structures a few

135

October 2008, Beijing, China

thousand times during one storm and each impulse lasts for only about 60ms
for breakwater caisson walls (Takahashi, et al., 1995 and 1998b).
The characteristics of impulsive forces generated by waves were
investigated experimentally in this study. Hydraulic tests were carried out inan experimental wave flume in which waves were repeatedly applied to RC
beams. Moreover, mechanical behavior of RC beams subjected to repeated
impulsive forces was discussed and the process to the ultimate state wasmade clear. In addition, it is necessary to examine how to improve structural
performance of marine concrete structures against repeated impact loads. In
the previous study carried out by Ito et al. (2005), for example, it was
revealed that structural performance of RC members may be improved instatic conditions by mixing PVA short fiber into concrete. Based on this, it
is expected that impact resistance of concrete members are improved by
PVA short fiber. Therefore, in this study, to investigate the applicability of
PVA short fiber to improve impact resistance of marine concrete structures,
mechanical behavior of concrete beams reinforced with PVA short fiber
under repeated impact loads was examined by conducting falling-weight
impact loading tests.
2. IMPULSIVE WAVE FORCE AND ITS EFFECT ON
STRUCTURAL BEHAVIOR OF RC BEAM
Hydraulic experimental tests were carried out to understand the dynamic
response and the failure process of RC beams due to repeated impulsive
forces (Yokota, et al., 2001). The experimental test was done in the wave
flume of 105m long and 3m wide. The tested beam was horizontallysupported just in front of a reflection wall with the clearance, s, from thestill water surface. Regular standing waves were generated by a wave
generator with wave height, H, of 100 to 600mm, period, T, of 2, 3, 4s, andwave length of 5.6 to 13.49m. The clearance was either 0 or 300mm. The
water depth at the reflection wall was 1.3m.
Two experimental test programs were undertaken. At first, RC beams
with 100, 200 or 300mm thick, 400mm wide, and 2400mm in span length
were prepared for measuring the wave force resultant and dynamic response
under wave impulsive forces. The other experimental program was tounderstand the failure process of RC beams with 50 or 80mm thick,
1000mm wide, and 2400mm in span length. Measurement was made forwater elevation by wave gauges, local wave pressures by wave pressuregauges attached on the bottom surface of the beam and wave force resultant
by load cell at the supports of the beam. A total of 20 wave pressure gauges
were installed in 4 lines along the longitudinal axis of the beam; (1) refers to
those in the most reflection wall side and (4) in the most wave generator
side. Acceleration of the tested beam and strains in rebar and in concrete
were monitored throughout the test. Concrete strength at the time of the test
was ranged from 30.3-38.9MPa and yield strength of rebars was ranged
from 337-357MPa. The ultimate static load-carrying capacities in terms of
uniformly distributed load converted from the concentrated load were
36.8kPa for the 100mm thick beam and 22.1kPa for 50mm thick beam.

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Figure 1: Response of RC beam subjected to impulsive wave force
Figure 1 shows dynamic responses of RC beams of 100mm thick and
400mm wide in which wave pressure, p, acceleration, �, and concrete strain,
�, resultant wave force, F, are plotted. In case of (a), the Bagnold type
impulsive force occurred because air was trapped between the surface ofwave and the beam. The duration of impulsive force was about 34ms. Wavepressure measured at line (1) was 26kPa and about 19kPa at the other lines.
Wave force resultant measured by the load cell was almost the same as thatof the sum of local wave pressures measured by wave pressure gauges as
about 15.7kN. The measured acceleration was more than 10m/s2 with theperiod of about 25ms.
In case (b), the Wagner type impulsive wave pressure was recognized
where waves touched at the beam from the reflection wall side runningtowards the wave generator side without trapping air. The peak value of the
wave pressure reached 97kPa and its duration was only 3ms. However, thewave force resultant was not so large; 9.9kPa and the duration was 75ms.
The time history of concrete strain was in accordance with that of resultant
forces due to waves.

Mechanical Behavior of Concrete Member Subjected to Repeated Impulsive Force137

October 2008, Beijing, China(Period, T, in s and wave height, H, in cm)
Figure 2: Failure process and strain accumulation
Figure 2 shows the failure process of the tested beam of 80mm thickin terms of resultant wave forces and concrete and rebar strains. Repeatedwaves with increasing height from 100 to 600mm were applied as shown in
the figure. The total number of waves applied was about 2000. At first, acrack was initiated at the fixed end of the beam, indicated as A in Figure 2,
and then three cracks occurred at the other end and the midspan of the beam
(B). Due to further application of waves, concrete was crushed at the bothends of the beam to reach the ultimate state (C). Action by waves formed
plastic hinges at the both ends and plenty of cracks and falling of coverconcrete were observed (D). Finally, concrete was completely removed atsome parts (E), and some rebars were broken (F). Before the initiation of thefirst crack, induced strain of concrete was rather small even if large
impulsive forces were applied. However, once a crack was formed, local
failure was rapidly progressed, resulting in entire collapse of the beam by
repeated waves as roughly equivalent to those during only one storm.
Compared with the static loading test, locations of cracks were almost thesame. Rebars were broken in the repeated impulsive loading test, but notbroken in the static loading test. It seemed that the test beam has highductility after rebar yields but can easily be broken due to repeated
impulsive forces.
3. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE FOR STRUCTURALBEHAVIOR INVESTIGATION
Two kinds of RC beams were prepared: normal concrete beams (N-beams)
and fiber reinforced concrete beams (F-beams). Beams in both series are
250mm wide, 250mm high, and 3300mm long, as shown in Figure 3.

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AnchorShear

Compressive

Tensileplate

reinforcement

reinforcement

reinforcementplate(t=6mm)D6(SD345)

D13(SD345)

D19(SD345)(t=6mm)19@150=2850
3000

150
200

40
50 160
250

150
200

CL

Anchor50 150

50

250

3400
(unit:mm)

Figure 3: Beam for loading test
PVA (Polyvinyl alcohol) short fiber was used to improve mechanicalproperties of concrete. PVA short fiber has high tensile strength and highresistance against corrosion compared with other types of synthetic fiber.
Also, it is expected that PVA short fiber can adhere chemically to cement
matrix, causing excellent bond properties between the fiber and the matrix.
The dimensions of PVA short fiber used in this experiment were 0.66mm indiameter and 30mm long. Its tensile strength and Young’s modulus were880MPa and 29.4GPa, respectively. The fiber reinforced concrete contained
PVA short fiber in 1.5 vol%.
Since fiber reinforced concrete was produced by adding PVA shortfiber into normal concrete, the bulk properties of fiber reinforced concrete
were the same as that of the normal concrete. The compressive strength of
concrete at the test was ranged from 30.8-33.0MPa.
Table 1 summarizes the test cases. The loading tests were conductedby static loading and repeated impact loading with the constant impact
velocity. The impact velocity was set at 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 4.0m/s, considering
velocities of impulsive wave forces observed in an actual marine structure.
For repeated impact loading, an impact loading testing machine was used. A
steel weight is lifted to the predetermined height by a small crane and then it
freely falls by releasing a hook. The weight was dropped onto the top
surface of a test beam at the midspan. The mass of the weight is 400kg, andthe impact face of the weight has a spherical shape with a diameter of
565mm. To prevent the beam from bouncing out, the beam is held with steel
bars at its two supports. To reduce scatters of impact response caused bydamage of the top surface of the beam, a rubber sheet of 10mm in thickness
is placed at the impact position of the beam. The ultimate state of the beam
was defined as the cumulative residual midspan displacement reached 2.0%of the span length (JSCE, 2004), that is 60mm. The impact loads wereapplied repeatedly until the ultimate state.
The impact force developed between the weight and the beam wasmeasured using a load cell mounted to the falling weight. The reaction
forces at supporting points were measured using load cells set at the
supports. The midspan displacement of the beam was measured using alaser-type displacement sensor. Also, cracks of the beam were observed
periodically.

Mechanical Behavior of Concrete Member Subjected to Repeated Impulsive Force139

October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 1: Test caseType

Designation

Loading
methodImpact velocity
(m/s)

N-S

Static

-N-V2
N

N-V2.5
N-V3

2.0
2.5

Repeated
impact

3.0

N-V4
F-S

4.0
Static-F-V2
F

F-V2.5
F-V3

2.0
2.5

Repeated
impact

3.0

F-V4

4.0

4. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
4.1 Effect of impact velocity on displacement
By static loading tests, it was made clear that the tensile rebar yields
when the midspan displacement reaches about 12mm. Also, crushing of top
concrete occurred when the midspan displacement reached about 30mm.
Figure 4 shows the relationships between the impact velocity and midspandisplacement at the first impact load. The maximum midspan displacementof N-beams was 13.3, 18.4, 25.0 and 38.2mm for the impact velocities of
2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 4.0m/s, respectively. Similarly, the maximum midspandisplacements of F-beams were 12.7, 16.4, 22.0 and 34.6mm. It was foundthat the maximum displacement of N-beams becomes slightly larger thanthose of F-beams. Here, it is supposed that the dependence of strain rate onmechanical properties of concrete and steel bars was ignored and thatstructural behavior due to impact loading was similar to that of static
loading. Comparing with the load-displacement curves of the beam under
static loading, it could be regarded that the impact load with the impact
velocity of 2.0m/s was equivalent to static load not to make tensile rebars
yield. Similarly, the impact loads with the impact velocity of 2.5m/s and3.0m/s were equivalent to static load to make tensile rebars yield but not tocause crushing of top concrete, and the impact load with the impact velocityof 4.0m/s was equivalent to static load to cause both yielding of tensile
rebars and crushing of top concrete.
4.2 Number of repetitions at failure
Table 2 summarizes the result of repeated impact loading tests interms of the number of repetitions of impact loading at the ultimate state.
From this table, even comparatively small impact could make the beam failin bending because the impact loads were applied to the beams repeatedly.
For example, in case of the impact velocity of 2.0m/s, the beam reached the140

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Midspan displacement (mm)ultimate state after 590 impacts for N-V2 and 105 impacts for F-V2. The
beams reached the ultimate state after less number of repetitions when
impact velocities were larger. The difference in the number of repetitions ofimpact loading until the ultimate state became remarkable in the range
between 2.0 and 2.5m/s in impact velocity.
0
10
20

Residual
N-series
F-series

30
40
0

1

2
3
4
Impact velocity (m/s)

Maximum
5

6

Figure 4: Impact velolcity vs midspan displacement
Comparing F-beams with N-beams, the number of repetitions for Fbeams was 5.6 times more than that for N-beams in case of 2.0m/s.
Similarly, the number of repetitions for F-beams was 1.7 times more in caseof 2.5m/s, and 1.8 times more in case of 3.0m/s. Therefore, it was found that
impact resistance of RC beams may be improved by mixing PVA short fiber
into concrete and the effect of PVA short fiber became significant when
impact velocity was small. However, in case of 4.0m/s, the beams with orwithout PVA short fiber failed at the third impact, showing no improvementof impact resistance by PVA short fiber mixing.
4.3 Relationship between the number of repetitions and displacement
Figure 5 shows the relationships between midspan displacement of
the beam and the number of repetitions of impact loading. In case of 2.0m/s
in the impact velocity, the midspan displacement of the beam progressed
remarkably at the small number of repetitions. Then, after a slow progress,
midspan displacement again increased acceleratedly. The whole tendency
drew an S-shaped curve. On the other hand, in the other cases, the progressof midspan displacement was almost linear with increase in the number ofrepetitions, which was considerably different from the case of 2.0m/s. The
reason for this difference was considered why the impact load with theimpact velocity of 2.0m/s is equivalent to static load not to make tensile
rebars yield so that the failure process was similar to that of RC beams
showing fatigue failure. Also, it was why the number of repetitions ofimpact loading until ultimate state changed drastically in the range between
2.0 and 2.5m/s in impact velocity.

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Table 2: Number of repetitions of impact loading at failure
Impact velocity (m/s)
2.0

2.5

3.0

4.0

Designation

N-V2

N-V2.5

N-V3

N-V4

Number of repetition

105

15

5

3

Designation

F-V2

F-V2.5F-V3

F-V4

Number of repetition

590

25

9

3

Residual

40
60
Maximum80

Displacement(mm)0Residual(F)

40
60
80

Maximum(N)Maximum(F)

100
0

5
10 15 20 25
Number of repetition

F-V2
Residual

40

N-series (Residual)
N-series(Maximum)
F-series (Residual)
F-series(Maximum)

60
80
0

20 40 60 80 100
Number of repetition
Residual(N) N-V2.5
F-V2.50
20

Maximum
100 200 300 400 500 600
Number of repetition

0
20

Residual(F) N-V3
F-V3

40

60 Residual(N)80
Maximum(N)Maximum(F)
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
Number of repetition

Displacement(mm)

20

0

20

Displacement(mm)N-V2

Displacement(mm)Displacement(mm)00Residual(F) N-V4
F-V4

20
40
60
80

Maximum(F)Residual(N)Maximum(N)

100
0

1
2
3
Number of repetition

4

Figure 5: Number of repetitions vs midspan displacement
In addition, as shown in Figure 5, the progress of cumulative residual
displacement of N-V2 was accelerated since the number of repetitions
reached 50 (maximum and residual displacements were 42mm and 27mm,
respectively). This number of repetitions coincided with the stage whencrushing area of top concrete was spread greatly. On the other hand, thecumulative residual displacement of F-V2 increased acceleratedly since thenumber of repetitions reached 470 (maximum: 69mm and residual: 52mm).
In this case, crushing of top concrete and spalling of concrete cover was not
remarkable, and the increment of cumulative residual displacement for one
impact was relatively small. For these facts, it was considered that PVA
short fiber transferred tensile stress in cracked concrete together withreinforcing bars and prevented concrete cover from spalling off, improving
impact resistance of the beam. It was confirmed that PVA short fiber
reduces the damage of RC beams subjected to repeated impact loads,
resulting in improvement of impact resistance of concrete structures.
5. CONCLUSIONS
The following conclusions were drawn in this study:1) The hydraulic experiment made clear the characteristics of wave
impulsive force acting on a marine RC structural member.
2) Once a crack was initiated in a concrete member, failure of themember rapidly progressed to entire collapse under repeated wave
impulsive forces.
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3) Under the experimental condition in this study, it was found thatthe number of repetitions of impact loading until the ultimate state is greatly
affected by the impact velocity, and the number of repetitions at failure isconsiderably changed between 2.0 and 2.5m/s of impact velocity.
4) The number of repetitions of impact loading until the ultimate stateincreased in case of reinforced concrete beams with PVA short fiber.
Therefore, the impact loading resistance of marine RC structures will be
improved by mixing PVA short fiber into concrete.
REFERENCES
Ito, H., Iwanami, M. and Yokota, H., 2005. Experimental Study on Shear
Capacity of Reinforced Concrete Beams with PVA Short Fiber.
Proceedings of the 6th International Congress on Global Construction,
Dundee, UK, 551-560.
Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2004. Practical Methods for Impact Testand Analysis. Structural Engineering Series 6 (in Japanese).
Takahashi, S., Suzuki, K. and Aburatani, S., 1995. Experimental Study on
Soil Pressure and Strain Observed in a Caisson Wall Subjected to
Impulsive Breaking Waves. Proceedings of Coastal Engineering,
JSCE, Vol.42, 906-910 (in Japanese).
Takahashi, S., Tsuda, M., Suzuki, K., Shimosako, K., 1998a. Experimental
and FEM Simulation of the Dynamic Response of a Caisson Wallagainst Breaking Wave Impulsive Pressures. Coastal Engineering,
1986-1999.
Takahashi, S., Tsuda, M., Shimosako, K., Yokota, H. and Kiyomiya, O.,
1998b. Numerical Calculations on Dynamic Response of Caisson
Wall due to Impulsive Breaking Wave. Proceedings of Coastal
Engineering, JSCE, Vol.45, 751-755 (in Japanese).
Yokota, H., Takahashi, S., Yamada, M. and Tsuda, M., 2001. MechanicalBehavior of RC Members Subjected to Repeated Impulsive Forces
due to Waves. Proceedings of the 1st fib Congress, Osaka, Japan, CDROM.

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REVIEW OF EMERGENCYTECHNOLOGIES TO SUPPORTURBAN RESILIENCE AND DISASTERRECOVERY
PENA-MORA FENIOSKY, AZIZ ZEESHAN,
GOLPARVAR-FARD MANI,ALBERTY CHEN, ALBERT P. PLANS and SAUMIL J. MEHTA
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
feniosky@illinois.edu
ABSTRACTThis paper presents an inclusive state-of-the-art review of various
emerging technologies to support urban disaster response and recovery.
This review was undertaken as a part of the CP2R project (Collaboration
Framework for Preparedness against, Respond to and Recovery from
eXtreme Events (XEs) involving critical physical infrastructure) which has
focused on improving the collaboration among key actors that should be
involved in different steps of preparedness against (i.e., before disaster),
response (i.e. during disaster) and recovery (i.e., after disasters). A realistic
disaster response scenario emphasizing on the crucial need for developmentof CP2R system as well as supporting technologies are presented.
Technologies reviewed include application of Radio Frequency
Identification (RFID) based techniques for structural assessment, aSegway-based information provisioning platform for field-responder’smobility and disaster site data collection, Geospatial Information System(GIS) for optimal resource optimization, Computer Vision and Image
Processing technologies for scene reconstruction using real-time visual
data (images and/or video stream) from disaster site, and Augmented
Reality technology for visualization of disaster damages and accessibility tovarious locations, application of Building Information Modelling forknowledge extraction for pre-disaster status and also as a baseline forvisualization of structural discrepancies as well as building black-box for
in-building data storage. The paper concludes that emerging ICTs
(Information and Communication technologies) can play a pivotal role indisaster preparedness, response and recovery processes. The need forfurther exploitation of convergence and synergy between various
technologies and their application to support existing disaster response
processes is also discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
Modern large or mega cities are complex and inter-dependent systems
including a mix of utilities, transportation, communication and power
infrastructure, home and office buildings. Recent disasters have shown that145

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this complexity and inter-dependency increases the potential impact ofdisasters in urban areas. It has long been recognized that Information
Technologies can play a critical role in addressing short-comings of existingdisaster response operations. Recent advancements in technologies, such as
those in hardware (e.g. miniaturization, increased processing power),transmission systems (e.g. high bandwidth wireless technologies) and realtime location tracking and data collection systems, have enabled new
possibilities for effectively meeting challenges imposed by man-made andnatural disasters. To address challenges imposed by disasters in modern
cities and to exploit possibilities emerging as a result of recent technologicaladvances, CP2R project (Collaboration Framework for Preparedness against,
Respond to and Recovery from eXtreme Events (XEs) involving criticalphysical infrastructure) was initiated at University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign. A key objective of the CP2R project is to enhance the role ofcivil engineers in disaster response and mitigation. Existing role of civilengineers during disasters is mostly limited to monitoring and securing thestructural stability of the built environment for the search and rescue
operations (Aldunate et al. 2005). CP2R research efforts are focused on
augmenting the role of civil engineers by further enhancing traditional
structural engineering functions (e.g. temporary shoring and structural
stability monitoring) as well as incorporating their knowledge on issues likedecision making related to Critical Physical Infrastructure (CPI), task
resource allocation (e.g. managing response machinery and personnel) andconstruction management (e.g. temporary re-constructability of damaged
areas and management of rescue construction machinery). Also,
participation of engineers and contractors involved in original design andconstruction of the CPI may bring critical insights for the disaster response
and recovery operation.
This paper reviews various emerging technologies that can be used toaugment civil engineer’s role in urban disaster response and recovery
operations. Rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes a
scenario that has guided further technological development in the CP2R
project. Section 3 reviews various emerging technologies with a focus on
their application in disaster response and recovery operations. Section 4
discusses key issues that need to be addressed to facilitate the uptake ofthese technologies.
2. DISASTER SCENARIO
This Section describes a scenario that highlights the efficiency of the CP2R
system during urban search and rescue. Consider a major urban city being
struck by a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Richter scale. Initial damage
estimated by running an earthquake simulator based on U.S. Geologicalbased on given soil conditions and demographic distribution suggests thatover 10,000 buildings in the city could be partially or completely collapsed
while others may have sustained structural damage. Other components of
CPI including elements of micro (e.g. power and water distribution
networks, gas pipelines as well as sewerage) and macro infrastructure (e.g.
bridges, rail lines, airports) suffered severe disruptions and damages.

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Immediately after the disaster struck, “Building Black-Box Systems”(Section 3.1) located in various locations in critical infrastructures
responded by taking real-time decisions related to building including
alerting occupants. Also, relevant information about the building (e.g.
structural stability information as well as Building Information Model) is
transmitted in real-time to city disaster management command centre andrelevant agencies. Local emergency responders including Emergency
Medical Services (EMS), policemen and fire-fighters immediately arrive at
the disaster site. A mobile coordination centre is used to provide necessary
collaboration and communication support for field operatives. It serves as acentral hub for information collected from different sources including thatcollected from field responders (e.g. rescue team or access blockage
locations, engineer’s report on damage/infrastructure assessment, resources
required), Geospatial Information Systems (e.g., site and various
infrastructure maps), pre-disaster conditions (BIM model), as well as
physical and visual sensors (e.g. during disaster or post-disasterconditions).This information will feed into information processing, data
analysis systems and will result in a better coordination and response andwill support strategic level decision making.
In this scenario, a collaborative system of autonomous unmanned
wireless antennas, acting similar to an ants’ colony communication model(Aldunate et al., 2005), is deployed in the affected area. High reliability andspeed of messages spread, based on epidemic multicast protocols allows thesystem to trigger an early response process. This help to reducing the time
gap until federal agencies could arrive to manage the disaster relief
operations. First response engineering teams undertake damage
reconnaissance operation to size-up current situation and collect informationfrom multiple perspectives to facilitate decision making. These teams first
perform an initial triage assessment of the damaged area to prioritize theorder of the response operations. Once the first response engineering teams
have completed their operations, engineering teams come into the affectedzone and perform a rapid building assessment. Aerial Reconnaissancetechniques and Satellite imagery is also used to provide an initial assessmentof the situation. As time is of essence during initial search and rescue
operations, a Segway-based mobility platform is used to enable responders
to traverse a large area in a relatively short period of time for the initial
triage assessment. Mobility platform is augmented with image/video
capturing devices and captured data is transmitted in real-time to on-sitecommand post using mobile ad-hoc networks. Such real-timecommunications is crucial in order to ensure rescuers’ safety and expedite
and support the decision making process by developing high levels of
Situation Awareness in early stages of the disaster. The information
gathered also serves as a basis for spatially prioritizing the search and rescue
operation and assigning roles to all responders.
At the onset of the disaster, a rapid assessment by engineering teams
is undertaken is to consider feasibility of performing search and rescue
operations within affected buildings. These assessments are undertaken by
structural specialists and are based on ATC-20 (Applied Technology
Council Rapid Evaluation Safety Assessment) specifications. Civil
Engineers can also access Building Information Model (BIM) and other pre-

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disaster related data from building black-boxes. Meanwhile during-disasteror post-disaster collected data (through visual and physical sensors) will
provide the pre and post-disaster status of the building. The discrepancies
between these two datasets will be measured and reported back to engineers.
Based on their prior experiences and knowledge, engineers will be able toconduct a better assessment on the impact of the disaster on built
environment. Such information is critical to support search and rescue
operations.
3. TECHNOLOGY REVIEW
Section 2 described a chaotic, inhospitable, stressful, and life-threatening
scenario. This Section elaborates on how early collaborative preparedness,
response and recovery processes, as facilitated by the CP2R-based
technological solutions could play a critical role in reducing the disasterconsequences and improving coordination, collaboration as well as
communication among first responders during response and recovery
operations.
3.1. Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) for Disaster Response
Geospatial Information Systems (GISs) plays a critical role in spatial
analysis to help develop high levels of situation awareness and facilitate
critical decision making. GIS can be used during all four phases of disasters
including preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. During the
preparedness phase, spatial data and geospatial analysis services are to beprepared and deployed. Real-time data collection, integration, and analysis
can be performed based on GIS during the response phase, while during therecovery phrase large scale spatial planning and progress monitoring forrepair of infrastructure and housing can be executed. During the mitigation
phase, simulation models and cost analysis can be studied throughvisualization and comparison in GIS to have alternative disaster mitigationplans for future disasters.
A resource allocation optimization application has been developed
under the CP2R project. Prior to disasters, resources, facility locations, androad network data are geo-coded into geospatial databases. After the disaster,
the application takes destinations and traffic conditions as inputs, andanalyzes the updated road network data for optimal allocation routes andresource distribution decisions. The application is automated for easy andefficient use under stressful and complex conditions. Moreover, different
optimization models can be plugged into the system for different scenarios
for resource allocation. Figure 1 illustrates GIS applications for supporting
decision making during disasters. Firstly, spatial data critical to disaster
response is prepared prior disasters. During disasters, graphicalrepresentation of collected spatial information, traffic conditions anddisaster sites, is done using GIS. Also, GIS facilitates critical decision
making and emergency response planning through services such as facility
location selection and emergency route finding for optimal resource
allocation.

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Figure 1:Applications of GIS in Urban Disaster Response and Recovery
3.2. RFID/Mobile Ad-hoc Networks for building assessment
Building assessment is one of the key tasks undertaken by theengineering workforce during Urban Search and Rescue operations (US&R)
during disaster response and recovery operations (McGuigan, 2002). As partof the CP2R research, next generation disaster resilient Radio Frequency
Identification (RFID) technology was employed to support assessment ofbuilding conditions and status of rescue operations.
The rationale of tracking building conditions during Urban Search andRescue operations is twofold. Firstly, responders, entering buildings need toknow which parts of building are structurally safe and without hazardous
materials. Secondly, identifying buildings that are safe for re-occupancy can
reduce overall chaos and allow staging areas for people dispersed from theirhouses. Apart from the structural assessment markings, building
assessments also include information like potential victim location andnumber of victims rescued. In the existing practice, building assessment
information is posted on buildings with the help of spray paints. Recording
assessment information using spray paints has many limitations including
poor visibility in foggy/smoky conditions. Also, this information is notrecorded in computers resulting in lack of overall situation awareness about
the search and rescue process. Forms containing critical building assessment
information are submitted only towards end of an operation cycle causing
delays in communication. However, for optimal resource allocation, it isimperative that decision makers are made aware of site conditions as
quickly as possible. During disasters such real-time access is often madedifficult because of the failure of pre-existing infrastructures such as
telecommunication networks. As part of the CP2R project, a Building
Assessment System is developed using Mobile Ad-hoc Networks(MANETs) as a data based communication system. The system uses longrange Ultra High Frequency RFID tags to store information and MANETs
to broadcast the captured information. Data can be stored and retrieved from
RFID tags by computing devices such as laptops, PDAs, blackberries, etc.
These devices share information about building conditions and rescue

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progress to create greater awareness. The Building Assessment System
displays building assessment information on a geographically referenced
map of the area (Figure 2). Making such information ubiquitously available
among responders will lead to proactive decision making and better
coordination.

Figure 2: Monitoring Building Assessments using Building Evaluation
Software3.3. Building Black Box
Building black-boxes are ruggedized and disaster resistant information
storage hubs which are embedded in buildings to support building
assessment during disaster response operations. Building black boxes serveto achieve two pronged objectives: Firstly, to store static building
information such as building information model, building drawings,
historical maintenance and operations data. Secondly, to provide dynamic
building information through disaster resilient sensors such as temperature,humidity, stress/strain in structural elements as well as visual sensors
locating personnel/victim locations inside a building. System testing wasdone to meet disaster resilience, secure communications and resilience
requirements. Regular backups of information stored in building blackboxes was done at secure data mirroring centers and emergency offices inorder to ensure building information availability during incident response.
In cases where regular communication infrastructure is not available after
disaster events, engineers can access information stored in the black box
using a mobile ad hoc networks or through a satellite up-link.

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3.4. Reconstruction of the during or post disaster built environment
using real-time images or video stream data from disaster site
Visualization of built environment using photographs and videos
allow first responders and decision makers - regardless of their level ofknowledge and expertise- understand spatial constraints of the disaster siteand explore rescue and recovery operation alternatives. In addition, during
disaster response and recovery operation, there is a very limited time forassessing the stability of the disaster site. Therefore, reconstruction of thescene based on images could become a good source for during and postdisaster site stability assessment and act as good communication tool among
first responders.
Knowing camera pose (location, orientation, and field of view) allows
disaster site photographs be placed into common 3D coordinates andconsequently disaster responders will be able to virtually explore the scene
by moving in 3D scene from an image to another while the special
configuration of the images within the 3D scene are preserved. The camera
pose information could be retrieved either by GIS or wireless location
tracking techniques (Behzadan et al. 2008) or could be recovered by Imagebased Modelling (IBM) techniques wherein three dimensional models arereconstructed from a collection of input images based on Structure frommotion (SfM) techniques (Pollefeys et al. 2004; Hartley and Zisserman2004). This visual dataset allows photographs and video stream images ofthe post-disaster scene to be posed in locations where images were taken.
On the other hand, the BIM model retrieved from the Black box(Section 3.3) allows the pre-disaster situation to be known. Superimposing
the reconstructed scene on the pre-disaster virtual model environment,
allows the photographs and video snapshots to be registered within thevirtual environment. Within such registered environment, images could beanalyzed using image processing techniques such as (Brilakis et al. 2006;
Varma and Zisserman 2005) and the severity of disaster incident could beassessed. Also within the registered environment, the structural deviations
between pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions could be measured andreported to disaster responders.
3.5.

Augmented Reality techniques for Disaster Visualization

Once the camera pose is known for each image, the video stream oreach photograph would be registered with the 3D model. This in turn creates
an Augmented Reality environment wherein the pre-disaster virtual model issuperimposed with post-disaster images. Using an Augmented Reality
model (Golparvar-Fard et al. 2008) with US Homeland Security Advisory
System color coding scheme (2008), different structural or hazardous
conditions are visualized. The augmented photographs provide a consistentplatform for representing pre-disaster, post-disaster and structural
discrepancies information and facilitate communication and reporting
processes among first responders.

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3.6. 3D laser scanning
During urban search and rescue operations there is little time for arigorous structural analysis and a limited time to decide the remaining
stability of the building and/or the temporally shoring measures required(McGuigan, 2002). The large variety in structural typologies and different
levels of damage make it difficult to model simple patterns for building
behaviour. LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) techniques could provide
a quick way to gather building data from the disaster scenario and tools toimprove building assessment. Laser technologies serve as a valuable tool togather real-time information in the response phase of an extreme event.
3.7. Robust Wireless Communication Networks
Need to improve collaboration and coordination in disaster response
effort has been highlighted in various studies. Also various pitfalls related tocollaboration, such as lack of trust, information sharing, communication andcoordination, have been well documented. In the hours and even days
following a major disaster, communication is often limited because existing
infrastructure may be destroyed or the event may have occurred in an area
without infrastructure. Voice service may be severely restricted.
Challenges imposed by disasters emphasize that the collaboration
medium provide attributes such as high availability, improved transmission
capability, and appropriate information dissemination. To achieve thesegoals, a reliable and transparent Mobile Ad-hoc Space for Collaboration(MASC) was developed to support collaboration among first responseorganizations and leverage civil engineers’ role during disaster response andrecovery operations (Aldunate et al., 2005). MASC was tested throughsoftware simulations in a search and rescue exercise at the Illinois Fire
Service Institute. The results obtained showed that it is possible to build asystem for traditional teams of first responders exhibiting 98% ofavailability in square areas where the side length is about three times thewireless communication range. Furthermore, the search and rescue exercise
allowed the research to confirm results found through simulation runs about
availability and to demonstrate that MASC is also portable among different
devices, transparent to first responders, and able to adequately manage anddisseminate information in disaster scenarios. Such results demonstrate
appropriateness of Mobile Ad-hoc Space for Collaboration. Currently weare exploring ways to scale up MASC for large set of response teams, withtools such as Mobile Communication Bridges [Peña-Mora et al, 2004] thatwould allow responders to communicate reliably and securely.
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONSThe paper has highlighted critical and evolving role of emerging
technologies in effective disaster management. Application of thesetechnologies to address collaboration, coordination as well as
communication and information delivery to field personnel during
preparedness, response and recovery is discussed.

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Advanced information and communication technologies offer a way toaddress complex
communication, collaboration and decision making
problems faced during disaster response and recovery operations. However,design and implementation of these technologies without proper
understanding of user requirements/situation may results in poor alignment
with end user requirements, which could possibly result in serious
consequences.
Another critical issue to ensure effective disaster response is the
response of the individual disaster responders on the ground which will
ultimately determine how effectively disasters can be dealt with. ICT
applications such as those discussed in this paper are required to provide
suitable information access and communication capabilities. However
effective use of various technological solutions such as those discussed inthis paper is highly dependent on individual context disaster responders findthemselves in, and this is highly dynamic and situation dependent. Factorsthat can effect individuals’ level of Situation Awareness include locationpose and elevation) of people, places, objects and resources; the activity or
status of the individual; and aspects of time, including temporal
relationships. It is imperative that ICT solutions are designed keeping inperspective responders’ context of use and to enhance individual,organizational and inter-organizational levels of situation awareness.
Without such an emphasis on meeting end user requirements full potential
of ICT solutions can not be realised. It is also imperative to develop a deep
understanding of different types of information required by specific roles atdifferent times to effectively perform their functions during disaster
response and recovery operations. A "Socio-behavioral-technical" approachto analysis will provide a much needed perspective to align emerging
technological possibilities with requirements of disaster response andrecovery operations. Such a comprehensive approach is important becauseof the phenomenal growth in ICTs which often outpace the rate at whichorganizations and individuals are adapting to technology.
REFERENCES
W Aldunate, R., F. Peña-Mora and G. Robinson, Collaborative Distributed
Decision Making for Large Scale Disaster Relief Operations:
Drawing Analogies from Robust Natural Systems, Complexity, Wiley,
Hoboken, NJ, Vol. 11, No. 2, December 2005, pp. 28-38.
McGuigan, D. M. (2002) Urban Search and Rescue and the role of theengineer. M.S. thesis, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Midkiff, S.F and Bostian, C.W. (2004) Rapidly-Deployable Broadband
Wireless Networks for Disaster and Emergency Response”,
Behzadan A. H., Aziz Z., Anumba C., and Kamat V. R. (2008), Ubiquitous
Location Tracking for Context Specific Information Delivery on
Construction Sites, Automation in Construction, 17(6), Elsevier
Science, New York, NY, 737-748.
Pollefeys, M., Van Gool, L., Vergauwen, M., Verbiest, F., Cornelis, K.,
Tops, J., and Koch, R. (2004). Visual modeling with a hand-heldcamer. Int. J. of Computer Vision, 59 (3), pp.207-232.

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Hartley, R. I., and Zisserman, A. (2004). Multiple View Geometry.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Brilakis, I., Soibelman, L., and Shinagawa, Y. (2006) Construction Site
Image Retrieval Based on Material Cluster Recognition, Journal ofAdvanced Engineering Informatics, Elsevier Science, Volume 20,
Issue 4, October 2006, Pages 443 – 452
Varma M. and Zisserman A. (2005). A statistical approach to texture
classification from single images. International Journal of Computer
Vision: Special Issue on Texture Analysis and Synthesis, 62(1--2):61-81, April 2005.
Homeland Security Advisory System (2008) Color coding for different
threat condition
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/03/20020312-5.html (lastaccessed Aug 12, 2008)
Golparvar-Fard, M., Peña-Mora, F., Arboleda C. and Lee, S.H. (2008)
Visualization Of Construction Progress Monitoring With 4D
Simulation Model Overlaid On Time-Lapsed Photographs, ASCE
Journal ofComputing in Civil Engineering, Graphical 3D
Visualization in Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Special
Issue (Under Publication)154

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

PRIOR DISASTER REVIEW SYSTEM FOR
DISASTER ASSESSMENT IN KOREA
WAON-HO YI, JAE-HYUN SHIM and JAE-HAK CHUNG
National Institute for Disaster Prevention, Korea
whyi1208@nema.go.kr
ABSTRACT
Korea has been involved risk due to frequent typhoon and heavy rain.
Specially, urbanization and industrialization has increasing hazard
vulnerability. In other words, due to the natural and man-made causes,
disasters occur frequently every year. Therefore it is necessary that weshould establish the countermeasures to save the lives and properties. And
also, to reduce the disaster damage from initial period in development
process, we have to execute the Prior Disaster Review System (PDRS).
Based on the Natural Disaster Countermeasures Law, the PDRS
program as a regulation for prevention of disaster has enacted. Major items
which the PDRS treats are risk factors topographically and impacts of nearareas or facilities due to development. Through this system, developers haveto construct flood mitigation facilities to reduce increased damages offlooding due to development project. For example, The PDRS program
prevents the facilities which population could be concentrated form being
planned and enforces to establish adequate countermeasures such as a
pumping station, a detention facility, a drainage way.
In this paper, we are to introduce the definition and progresses of
PDRS program. Also, we will explain the future activities for effective
operation. This program will contribute to management the flood disasters
and to reduce flood damage in urbanized watershed.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the "Natural Disaster Countermeasures Law" in Korea, the natural
disasters classified as typhoon, flood, torrential rain, wind storm, drought,
blizzard, and earthquake etc. But over 95% of damages are caused by floods
with typhoons & torrential rains. The average annual economic damage ofnatural disasters was 2 billion dollars, and 119 persons were dead (Table 1).
Especially, in 2002, the largest scale of flood damage was caused byflash floods with typhoon Rusa. Total amount of damages were over 7
billion dollars and the government had to expend 9 billion dollars forrecovery.

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Table 1: Annual Damage of Natural Disasters during last 10 years
PublicDeath Evacuee Inundation Facilities
Year(million(person) (person)
(ha)
US $)
1997
38
6,296
45,773
184
1998
384
30,30891,629
1,378
1999
89
26,656
76,128
1,084
2000
49
3,665
53,092
596
2001
82
4,165
20,012432
2002
270
71,204
61,579
5,575
2003
148
63,13351,412
3,434
2004
14
8,814
56,903
539
2005
52
9,914
26,782
456
2006
63
2,883
34,759
1,692
Average118.9 22,703.8 51,806.9
1,537cf) currencies are based on 2006

Damages(million
US $)
240
1,777
1,398
725
1,419
6,929
4,886
1,285
1,073
1,942
2,167.4

2. CLASSIFICATION OF FLOOD DAMAGE CAUSES
The causes of flood damage in Korea can be divided into two categories,
natural and human induced factors. The natural factors also have twocategories, meteorological and geomorphologic factor. Due to the seasonal
concentration of rainfall, two thirds of the annual rainfall is concentrated insummer, on the other hands, drought occurs frequently in other seasons. In
the geomorphologic aspects, about 70% of the mountainous area covers thetotal area of Korean peninsula. When it rains; the flood discharges areconcentrated at the downstream area rapidly. From such natural factors, theflash flood event, small or large scale, occur frequently every year. The
effects of development projects on hydrologic systems have aggravated thevulnerabilities of flood disaster. Highly condensed developments in Korea
took economic growth effectively, but, nowadays as the shadow of welfare,it also took lots of disaster causes.
Urbanization, the development for business and residential purposes,
has affected the land uses. In the process of urbanizing a basin, manconverts natural pervious areas to impervious surfaces. These area cause anincreased volume of runoff, the surface is usually smoother thereby
allowing more rapid drainage, and depression storage is reduced. The othercause of flood event is the climate changes and global warming originatedfrom combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation. Due to the climate change,
flash flood occurs frequently and historical record of rainfall phenomena isrenewed every year. The Table 2 show the rapid changes of historicalrainfall records, and some of the marked (*) records below are not officiallyrecognized.

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Table 2: Rapid changes of historical rainfall events in Korea
Historical Records

Classification
Maximum
Hourly Rainfall

Up to 1998 : 118.6 mm/hr (Seoul, 1942)
1998 : 145 mm/hr (Suncheon, JiRi Mountains)
1999 : 116*mm/hr (Buyeo, Chungnam)2008 : 106*mm/hr (Busan, Kim-Hae)

Annual Rainfall

In 1970 : 1,159 mm
In 1980 : 1,274 mm
In 1990 : over 1,360*mm

3. SIMULATION ON RUNOFF DUE TO DEVELOPMENTILLUDAS (Illinois Urban Drainage Area Simulator) model is applied toestimate the hydrological changes due to landuse variations for urbanization
at Seoul and two small basins, Yongsan, Seongnae. The frequencies ofdesign rainfall are 10, 30, 50 years and Huff's quartile method andinstantaneous method (I.I.M.) are used to distribute design rainfall. To
check the characteristics of runoff variation, the basins are classified into
upper, middle, and lower sub-basins. The Figure 1 explains the hydrographsof each basin, and it is obvious that Seongnae basin already has potential offlooding at the 10 year rainfall.

G

Figure 1: Hydrograph of Yongsan(left) and Seongnae(Right) basin
To estimate the runoff increment due to urbanization, the present
status and future land use planning of each basin are investigated. The Table
3 and 4 show the total increments of runoff for each basin. In the table, theunit of land use is percentage of impervious area and total runoff is tonnage.
The difference of total runoff between two basins is obvious from its
dependence on drainage area and basin morphology. To identify the damage
potential by urbanization, total runoff is converted into unit increment of
runoff (see Table 5). Table 5 shows the net total runoff increment by
urbanization at 30year rainfall event and its unit is tonnage per hectare.

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Table 3: The runoff increment due to urbanization (Yongsan basin)(unit : tons)

Return Period
10 yearTime Distribution
Huff I.I.M.
Land Use Changes

30 year
Huff

I.I.M.

50 year
Huff

I.I.M.

Present(70%)

58,390 58,266 71,418 71,349 77,363 77,264

Land Use(80%)

58,654 58,546 71,682 71,628 77,627 77,545

Land Use(90%)

58,918 58,826 71,945 71,909 77,891 77,825

Land Use(95%)

59,050 58,967 72,076 72,049 78,023 77,964

Present(85%)

58,390 58,266 71,418 71,349 77,363 77,264

Middle Land Use(90%)
Basin Land Use(95%)

58,415 58,292 71,443 71,374 77,387 77,289

Land Use(97%)

58,449 58,345 71,477 71,410 77,421 77,325

Present(85%)

58,390 58,266 71,418 71,349 77,363 77,264

Land Use(90%)

58,410 58,287 71,438 71,369 77,383 77,285

Land Use(95%)

58,430 58,308 71,467 71,390 77,403 77,306

Land Use(97%)

58,436 58,317 71,477 71,399 77,411 77,314

Upper
basin

Lower
Basin

58,439 58,317 71,467 71,399 77,412 77,315

Table 4: The runoff increment due to urbanization (Seongnae basin)(unit : tons)

Return Period
10 yearTime Distribution
Huff I.I.M.
Land Use Changes
Present(60%)
Upper
basin

30 year
Huff

I.I.M.

50 year
Huff

I.I.M.

401,392 400,741 492,454 492,077 534,458 533,187

Land Use(70%) 402,234 401,615 493,295 492,956 535,378 534,067
Land Use(80%) 403,078 402,493 494,136 493,834 536,289 534,950
Land Use(90%) 403,922 403,372 494,978 494,713 537,136 535,832
Present(70%)

401,392 400,741 492,454 492,077 534,458 533,187

Middle Land Use(80%) 404,793 403,990 495,577 495,369 537,751 536,474
Basin
Land Use(90%) 408,496 407,287 499,248 498,662 540,884 539,762
Land Use(95%) 410,210 408,937 501,053 500,309 542,448 541,406
Present(75%)
Lower
Basin

401,392 400,741 492,454 492,077 534,458 533,187

Land Use(80%) 401,488 400,834 492,548 492,177 534,576 533,287
Land Use(85%) 401,584 400,928 492,643 492,277 534,695 533,386
Land Use(90%) 401,679 401,022 492,737 492,377 534,813 533,486

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Table 5: The Total Runoff Increment due to Urbanization (30year event)(unit : tons/ha)

Upper Basin

Middle Basin

Lower Bain

Huff

I.I.M.

Huff

I.I.M.

Huff

I.I.M.

Yongsan

125.71133.33125.64132.77125.00131.25Seongnae

122.03126.67130.81126.81120.00116.88Classification

4. INTRODUCTION OF PDRS
4.1 BACKGROUNDSIn Korea, besides the natural vulnerabilities of flood caused by themeteorological and geo-morphological factors, the condensed development
has aggravated flood risks. The development certainly induced the land usechanges and the urbanization transfers green land to impervious areas suchas roads and buildings inevitably. In the hydrological aspects, thedevelopment reduced the infiltration, interception, and evapotranspiration,
so the direct runoff increased and time of concentration is shortened (Figure2). And, in the economic point of view, land owner have a right to develop
for one's own wealth, but the hazards caused by the development can affecton other persons who live in the lower part of development sites.

Figure 2: The changes of runoff phenomena due to development

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G
Figure 3: The changes of hydrograph due to development
4.2 DEFINITION
Korea has executed a DIA (Disaster Impact Assessment) program
since 1996. The DIA program is defined as a regulation which is tominimize the vulnerabilities of flood due to development through thepreliminary comprehensive assessment.
This program is applied to specified development projects larger than
30,000m2. Therefore the DIA can’t be applied at the initial stage ofdeveloping process. Also, it can’t assess various projects such as road,railway etc. In addition, the DIA is only applied for implemental developing
projects when all the administrative process is finished. So, DIA could
assess only for implemental design process for limited developing area.
Because of above-mentioned limited states, Korea has executed a
PDRS program since 2005. The PDRS program reduces the disaster damage
from initial period in development process. Based on the Natural Disaster
Countermeasures Law, the PDRS program as a regulation for prevention ofdisaster has enacted.
Many disaster prone areas in Korea would not be damaged seriously ifthere were reconsiderations of disaster impacts when they were planned.
4.3 PROCEDURE OF PDRSThe procedure of PDRS starts with submitting the plan ofdevelopment. This plan is delivered to director of National/Local
Headquarters and assessed by Council for PDRS and Related Organizations.
Council for PDRS is comprises 76 members drawn from professor, engineer,
researcher, etc.
The main items of assess are as follows;
1) Disaster risk factors by surrounding circumstances
2) Disaster impacts to near areas or facilities due to development
3) Disaster mitigation countermeasures proposed by developer
Finally, developer should notify of an assessment result and complete
the final report. Details of procedure are informed at Figure 5.

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Figure 5: Procedure to execute PDRS
4.4 Items of PDRSIn this chapter, we suggest important key points for disaster
assessment by landuse type.
4.4.1 Urban Areas
Urban development projects have to be assessed about disaster
vulnerability. Urban areas involve a lot of risk. The typical items are lowlying areas of densely populated districts and low land of the neighborhood
river.
Therefore, we are ready for disaster response by PDRS. For example,
we will construct pumping stations, detention facilities and drainage
channels to prevent inundation.

Figure 6: Flood at urban area
4.4.2 Coast Areas
We check the response plan for frequent storm surge to ensure that theresidents are safe from disasters. Particularly, we analyze the sea level risingin reclaimed land.

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As mentioned above analysis, we construct multi-purpose detention,park and sports facilities in storm surge prone areas. And we consider how
to cope with the erosion of seashore.

Figure 7: Surge storm at coast area
4.4.3 Mountainous Areas
In the geomorphologic aspects, the mountainous area covers about
70% of the total area of Korea peninsula. So, many development plans lie inmountainous areas. Therefore it is very important that we assess thevulnerability of disaster. For example, we takes measures against landslide,soil yield and sediment runoff.
Based on PDRS program, we restrict the form of large-scale cut slopes
and suggest the plan of countermeasures to minimize the impact ofmountainous development.

Figure 8: landslide at mountainous area
5. CONCLUSIONS
Development changes natural land into impermeable areas such as asphalt
or concrete. Hence, it brings decrease of infiltration amount of rainfall. As aresult, amount of direct runoff is increased. Peak rate of runoff is drasticallyincreased and its concentration time is shortened rather than before
development. This may cause flooding damage. In addition to that, land

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slide is affected by amount, intensity, frequency of rain and soil condition,
vegetation and inclination of slope.
Accordingly, forecast and analysis of causes of disaster due todevelopment should precede business to establish adequate reducing method.
In order to accomplish this, we have enforced PDRS program.
Henceforth, as an aspect of advanced preventing, it will be necessary
for comprehensive and systematic evaluation.
REFERENCES
Akan, A. O., 1993. Urban Stormwater Hydrology -A Guide to Engineering
Calculations-. Technomic Publishing Co. Inc.
Chen, C. N. and Wong, T. S. W., 1994. Critical Rainfall Duration for
Maximum Discharge from Overland Plane: Closure. Jour. of
Hydraulic Eng., ASCE, Vol. 120, No. 12, 1484-1486.
Debo, T. N. and Reese, A. J., 1995. Municipal Storm Water Management.
CRC Press, Inc.
Huff, F. A., 1967. Time Distribution of Rainfall in Heavy Storms. Water
Resources Research, Vol.3, No.4, 1007-1019.
Keifer, C. J. and Chu, H. H., 1957. Synthetic Storm Pattern for Drainage
Design. Jour. Hyd. Div., ASCE, Vol.83, No.4, 1-25.
Lee, J. T., Yun, S.E., and Lee, J. J., 1993. Critical Duration of Design
Rainfall for Detention Pond with Pump Station. Sixth International
Conference on Urban Storm Drainage, Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada,pp.312-317, Sep. 12-17, IAWPRC and IAHR.
Lee, J. J. et. al., 1996, A Study on the Hydrologic Design of Detention
Storage Ponds in Urbanized Area. Korean Journal of Hydrosciences,
Vol.7, 21-35.
Shim, J. H., 1994. The Evaluation of Runoff variation due to Urban
Development (with Korean). The Korea Local Administration Review,Vol. 8, No. 4, 147-165.
Shim, J. H. and Lee, J. S., 2000. Development of Guidelines on DIA
Report(with Korean). National Institute for Disaster Prevention.

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164

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MANAGEMENT OF URBAN DISASTER
WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON FRESH
WATER SCARCITY AND SURFACEWATER POLLUTION IN DHAKA CITY
MURSHED AHMED
Director, Directorate of Project Evaluation
Bangladesh Water Development Board, Bangladeshmahmed_3ch@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is a Mega-City accompanied by acompelling problem of accommodating more people in a limited piece ofland and thereby creating excessive demand for dwelling houses andindustries which result in construction of high-rise buildings and growing
slum areas simultaneously. These give rise to environmental hazards alongwith paucity of fresh water for household and industrial use. Like manyother cities in Asian developing countries, Dhaka is exposed to serious
threats of versatile urban disasters viz. seismic, flood, cyclone, fire and thelike. Now, environmental hazard in particular has become a community
concern in Dhaka Metropolitan City. Non-use of water gives environmental
benefits to city population which is awfully absent or decreasing in Dhaka.
The environment within and around urban areas are worsening day by day
due to unplanned and improper use of water and land. Ensuring safe andreliable water supply has been one of the major urban challenges. The main
sources of surface water of Dhaka city are the river Buriganga and otherperipheral rivers namely, Shitalyakha, Turag and Balu which are extremely
polluted by discharge of more than 1.3 million cubic meters of untreatedeffluents and 0.5 million cubic meters of sewage daily. Most of these waters
are unusable for human and other living organism. These polluted waters
can no longer be considered suitable for chemical treatment. On the other
hand, the riverbanks and beds are encroached by the illegal occupants. The
scarcity of surface water, therefore, results in increasing pressure on
ground water abstraction. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is alarmingly
lowering down by 2 to 3 meter every year because of groundwater mining
which may result in land subsidence. In such a situation if water ofsurrounding rivers is not improved both in quality and quantity, the capital
city will not remain environmentally fit for human habitation. The situation
may improve through co-ordination and integration of different institutions
engaged in urban development activities under the umbrella of an apex
body for emergency mitigation of disaster. The present paper attempts todiscuss major essential aspects of human-induced urban disasters withspecial emphasis on fresh water scarcity and surface water pollution,highlighting measures for mitigating them through appropriate
Environmental Management Plans (EMPs) including awareness building,165

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
active community participation, institutional development and strict
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations are
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations areprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andmanagement of water resources using advanced technologies.
management of water resources using advanced technologies.
1. INTRODUCTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundarsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundurban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to overurban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to overabstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
abstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
rivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by therivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by thedwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
dwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of thegreatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of theworld which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
one. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water forone. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water for
shortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forshortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forwater in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
water in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, it
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, itwill be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from thewill be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from thethreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds tothreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds tomajor urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth ofmajor urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth of
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems inpopulation in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering down
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering downby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disasterby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disasterthreats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
threats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
planners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theplanners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theincreasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance that
increasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance thatwill lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
will lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
response system is the main focus of the paper.
response system is the main focus of the paper.
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
Access to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning ofAccess to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning of
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
water refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwater refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
wetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. All
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. All
surface water bodies within and around the urban industrial centres are now
surface water bodies within and around the urban industrial centres are now
highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
166
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areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions whichareas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
deterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
deterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned andshortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned andirrational urbanization. The main objectives of the study are to highlightirrational urbanization. The main objectives of the study are to highlightmechanism for mitigating fresh water scarcity and polluted surface water
mechanism for mitigating fresh water scarcity and polluted surface water
through good governance by coordinated and integrated approach ofthrough good governance by coordinated and integrated approach ofdifferent agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management
different agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biological(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biologicalenvironment significantly.
environment significantly.
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecological
Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecologicalzones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
zones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
river banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well as
river banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well ascivilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was established bycivilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was establishedbycentury
the Mughals on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17th
the Mughals on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17th century
considering its immense potentiality of growth and development. Since thenconsidering its immense potentiality of growth and development. Since thenthis Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
this Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
entire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, theentire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, thecapital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historically
capital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historicallyknown as the city of mosques and muslims, it started attracting travellers
known as the city of mosques and muslims, it started attracting travellers
from far and near from time immemorial. According to history, it wasfrom far and near from time immemorial. According to history, it was
founded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
founded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
became a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
became a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition of
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition of
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
Dhaka has now grown into a dynamic city offering opportunity for millions
Dhaka has now grown into a dynamic city offering opportunity for millionsof migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
of migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
is currently around 12 million and is projected to grow to 20 million in
is currently around 12 million and is projected to grow to 20 million in
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
a blend of old and new architectural trends, Dhaka is developing fast as aa blend of old and new architectural trends, Dhaka is developing fast as amodern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag andmodern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag and
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
for city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence offor city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence of
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment of
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment of
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
unplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
unplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
have all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
have all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
have made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage systemhave made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage systemand created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding theand created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding theManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
167

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October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
Dhaka city is meagre and polluted during the dry season. Most of theenforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations are
surface waters are environmentally unfit for any human use and livingprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andorganism. The city authorities could not prepare and implement any
management of water resources using advanced technologies.
effective urban planning to keep the rivers free from water pollution andencroachment of the perennial water bodies and channels even till recentdays.
1. INTRODUCTION
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
4. NEED FOR THE STUDY
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundA pollution-free environment is vital for a decent standard of living.
urban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to overAvailability of fresh water and healthy environment is a fundamental rightabstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearbyof the city dwellers. Unfortunately, with rapid urbanization andrivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by theindustrialization, urban governance, the provision of adequate safe water,
dwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
land and housing remained below the standard. Poverty has further been
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
aggravated the situation with increasing number of slums and squatters ingreatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of themetropolitan cities. Given the magnitude of the problems, the present study
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most pollutedemphasizes the need for strategies for accessing safe water towards socioone. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water for
economic enhancement. Emphasis has also been given on planned
shortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand fordevelopment of urban areas by strengthening environmental governancewater in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
through involvement of all the stakeholders for achieving environmental
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, itsustainability.
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from thethreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds tomajor urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth of
5. RISK PARAMETERS AND FACTORS
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in� Overpopulation and extreme poverty
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering down
urbanizationand industrializationby 2� to Unabated
3 meter every
year (IWM,
2006) resulting from mining and disaster�
Non-judicious
useofnaturalthreats of land subsidence which resources
has become alarming for the urban
� Water
air come
pollutionplanners.
Timeandmay
when the city will fail to bear the burden of the� Groundwater
increasing
populationdepletion
with severe impact of environmental imbalance thatutilityofservices
will�leadInadequate
a special typedisaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
�
Untreatedindustrial
waste
and with
impropertreatmentof
How this type of disasters can be
managedefficient andemergency
sewage/garbage
response
system is the main focus of the paper.
� Contamination of surface water and groundwater� Illegal encroachments on public land and rivers
2. THEME
OF THE
STUDY� Absenceof goodgovernance� Immoral political and bureaucratic involvement
Accessto freshwater resources
a global concern since the beginning of� Lackof appropriate
legal isaction
humancivilization
urbanandcentres
startedgrowing and technology
� Lackof properaszoning
landscapedesignadvanced
the
issue
got
more
importanceincourseof time. In this paper,� Lack of application of the state-of-art technologies
water refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
5.1
Conditions
and Challenges
secured,safe, reliable
and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
Massive andunprecedented
urbanizationin Dhakagrow
has geometrically.
produced new
their population,
economy,urban areas
and mega-cities
types
of
water
and
wastewater
relatedproblems
andchallenges.
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. The
All
immediateneeds
in terms
ofandmanagement
demandfor andcentres
supply areof freshsurface water
bodieswithinaround theofurban
industrial
now
water
the city Surface
for environment
friendly
conditions
are as follows:
highlyfor
polluted.
and groundwater
is also becoming
increasingly
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
166
168

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which� Augmentation of fresh water supplies from outside Dhaka city
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,from both surface and ground water sources to arrest continuing
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,
falling of groundwater level and increase water supply. Water
industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
treatment plants and well fields outside Dhaka will be required.
2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
� All waste waterneeds
to be treateddisposal waterof the quality
nearbyand micro-organism
is being
destroyed
due before
to increasing
river.
AllDhaka
residential
houses,places thatandwillindustrial
deterioration.
Now
has alsoa largecommercial
slum population
createunits
within
Dhaka
need
to
be
connected
withseweragedisposalproblems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation andwatersystem.
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned and� urbanization.
Proper land utilization
keepingarea
irrational
The main planningobjectivesof theprovision
study arefor
to openhighlight
waterbodiesneed toand
be polluted
provided.surface water
mechanismfor
forrecreation
mitigatingand
fresh
water
scarcity�Properland
useplanning
and
implementationof planneed to bethrough good governance by coordinated and integrated
approachofcontrolledbyparticipationofcity
dwellers
andpublicdifferent agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management
througha strong
corporatephysicalbody.
(PCM) to organization
improve thesocial,economic,
and biological
�
The
city
area
must
be
extended
whereverpossible.
environment significantly.
Other continuing works are:
� Compliance of environmental legislation
3. HISTORICALBACKGROUND� Improving
aesthetics and opportunities for recreation
� Rationale use of natural resources
Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecological� Maintaining the riverine eco-systemzones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
� Political will and consensus
river banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well as� Promoting
institutional
co-ordination
civilization
have grownnear rivers.
The city of Dhaka was established by�
Improvinglegal
andregulatory
framework
the Mughals on the bank of the river Burigangain the early 17th century

considering
its immenseof growthand bydevelopment.
The present
and potentiality
future challenges
faced
the DhakaSincecity thenarethis Buriganga
serving thepeople ofcityrisks
withandits
multifaceted
thatriverneedhastobeen
be managed
efficiently
for Dhaka
reducing
entire resources
with challenges
a flourishing
Undoubtedly
Dhaka, andthevulnerability.
These
are riverposingport.
threatfor optimisation
capital of Bangladeshhas
exciting
history
anda rich reduction
culture. Historicallysustainable
management
ofan
water
resources
andpoverty
strategies.
known
as the city
mosquesand muslims,
it startedcomplex
attractingand
travellers
The
dynamics
of of
water
for growth
are extremely
highly
from
far
and
near
from
time
immemorial.
Accordingtohistory,itwasdependent on driving forces like physical, technological, cultural, political,
founded1608 ADpriorities.
as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
socialandineconomic
became a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East
Bengalin 1905 and became
the capitalOF
of EastPakistan
after the partition of
6.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPACTSWATERPOLLUTION
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
has nowfrom
grown
intopollution,a dynamic
city offering
for millions
Dhaka suffers
water
scarcityof pureopportunity
drinking water,
sewageofmigrants
with
an
area
of
about
256
squarekilometre
(GOB,
2003)
management, water logging etc. which are posing a serious threat to public
excluding
peripheralandtowns
and slum dwelling
Dhaka’spopulation
health,ecosystems
socio-economic
life of places.
the people.
Pollutionof theiscurrently
around12
millionandisprojected
to
grow
to
20
millioninrivers and the change in the environment has seriously influenced the2020, making
the worlds
third(WorldofBank,
2007).
Possessing
livelihood
anditliving
patternof largest
the citycity
dwellers
Dhaka.
Dhaka
has not
abeen
blend
of
old
and
new
architectural
trends,Dhaka
isdeveloping
fast
able to keep pace with the needs of the rapidly transforming social as
anda
modern metropolitan
Dhaka ispopulation.
surrounded Most
by Buriganga,
Turagfromandeconomic
demands ofcity.
the growing
migrants come
Sitalakhya
riversandcontribution
inter-connectedcanals whichused
to form a life-line
ruralareas andtheir
to economic
growthis significant,as they
for city residents
the past.toDuring
the last
twenty housing,years, a convergenceofprovideessentialinservices
garments
factory,
manufacturing
unregulated
units,
rapid ruralurbancity
migration,
encroachmentofservices
etc.industrial
Dhaka hasemergedas atomegain the newmillennium
theriversandchannels,
disposalofuntreated
pollutantstotherivers,(World Bank, 2007). Dhaka, being a very large and dynamic city, has drawn
unplanned road
networkand non-complianceenvironmental
regulations
substantial
industrial
investments,
particularly ofin theReady Made
Garmenthave
alldegradedsurfacewater
quality.
Developers
of
lands
and
buildings
industry, which has created demand for workers and services. This
have made however,many of also
the canals
non-existentdamaging
the drainage
systemmigration,
adds tremendous
strainon an alreadycrowdedcity
andcreatedwater
logging.
Thesurface
water
of
the
riverssurroundingthewith limited inhabitable land and a low level of public services. The socioManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
169

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
economic characteristics of the city now include excessively high land
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations are
prices, a large slum population, poor quality housing, traffic congestion,prescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andwater shortage, poor sanitation and drainage, irregular electric supply,
management of water resources using advanced technologies.
increasing air pollution and poor governance. There is no urban planning toprotect peripheral rivers and channels which would accommodate thedrainage water and to assimilate the waste discharges. Various studies and
1. INTRODUCTION
reports reveal that the impact of river pollution is now at an alarming level.
Industry alone is responsible for discharge of more than 1.3 million cubic
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
meters of effluents into the rivers everyday compared to the daily discharge
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,of 0.5 million cubic meter household waste water (Daily Star, 2008). As aarsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundresult, natural resources and social life are severely endangered. Due to badurban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to oversmell and unhygienic physical environment, people in large number, areabstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
migrating from river side to other places. Inhabitants have become sociallyrivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by theisolated from their relatives and friends. People are less interested to build
dwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
relationship with the people living along river sides.
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
Three major types of diseases: skin diseases, diarrhoea and dysentery
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of theare spreading sporadically with industrial water pollution. Moreover, 20
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
types of illness due to industrial pollution have been increasing in the lastone. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water forten years. Evidence of ground and surface water contamination has beenshortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forfound in areas near the polluted river Buriganga particularly in Hazaribag
water in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
area. High values of E. coli form have been observed in these areas (RPMC,
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, it2008). Even people living in the vicinity of Buriganga are likely to be
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from theattacked by cancer for their contact with chemical wastes dumping into thethreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds towater. The number of fish species has severely declined from water
major urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth ofpollution in the rivers. A recent study conducted by the Water Resources
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
Department of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering down
(BUET) reveals the oxygen level of the Buriganga and Turag is less than 1
by 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disaster
mg/L. All species of local fish need 4-6 mg/L oxygen to survive. Many of
threats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
the fishermen and boatmen dependent on the rivers for livelihood haveplanners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theshifted to other professions as the rivers have been polluted and dried up.
increasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance that
Most of the the industrial effluents are dumped directly into the rivers
will lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
Buriganga, Balu and Sitalakhya. Pollution from tanneries in Hazaribagh is
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
responsible for increasing in the health-related expenditure 125 US dollar
response system is the main focus of the paper.
per capita of people living in the vicinity of the tanneries (GOB, 2005).
These pollutants are causing serious damage to freshwater and healthy
ecosystems as well. The unabated dumping of industrial wastes and sewage
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
has polluted the waters to such a magnitude that it is no longer economically
viable for chemical treatment. These kinds of pollution have a strong humanAccess to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning ofhealth impact particularly among the poor communities who are exposed tohuman civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
water-borne diseases.
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
water refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
7.
EFFECTSOF URBANIZATION
WATER
secured,safe, reliable
and stable supplyONof waterhas RESOURCES
been one of the leading
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
Safe,
affordable andstable water
propersanitation
facilities
are vital
their population,
economy,urban supply,
areas andmega-cities
growgeometrically.
requirementhumanaredevelopment
and ecosystemsurvival.
Without
Water qualityfor
problems
becoming increasingly
seriousday by day.
Alladequatequantity
andwithinqualityandof water,
willurban
not bepossiblecentres
to ensuresurface water
bodiesarounditthe
industrial
arefood,now
energy,health andenvironmental
security
But asincreasingly
a result ofhighly polluted.
Surfaceand groundwater(ADB,
is also2007).
becoming
rapid
urbanisation
boom,
Dhaka
city is facing
seriouscontaminatedwithinandand population
around growthcentresof populationand industrial
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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
environmental problems. Industrial expansion, rural to city migration andinclude encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
encroachment of the rivers/canals/water bodies and lack of strict
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,
enforcement of environmental regulations with climatic change haveindustrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
significantly been contributing towards increased intensity of disasters.
2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
Consequently access to freshwater now has become a serious concern forand micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
city population and mankind as a whole. Unplanned urbanization anddeterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
unregulated industrial expansion produce adverse impact on:
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water� Drainage situation
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned and� Waterquality The main objectives of the study are to highlightirrational
urbanization.
� Rechargeof groundwatermechanism
for mitigating
freshwater scarcity and polluted surface water�Wetlandecologythrough good governance by coordinated and integrated approach of� Waterretentiondifferent
agenciesand institutions, and Participatory City Management
Dhaka-Narayanganj-Demra
project physicalcovering anof 56.79(PCM) to improve the social,(DND)
economic,andareabiologicalsqkm
was ranked
as one of the most successful projects of Bangladesh
environment
significantly.
Water Development Board (BWDB), but it has now become a burning
example where extreme environmental degradation has occurred due tounplanned
urbanizationand population increase, growth of illegal fish farms
3. HISTORICALBACKGROUND
and encroachment of canals/ borrowpits by the filling stations without
properdrainagefacilities. The
continualcountry
growth offishimportant
farms in the
project
Bangladesh
is historicallya riverine
withecologicalarea
isresponsible
for
water
logging.
These
fish
farms
block
free
flow
of
zones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
water
into thecanalsmaintain theirpondssocieties,
leading towater
river banks.
Fromtimeto immemorial
nations,
citiesas logging.
well asAnotherproblematic
factoristheencroachmentofthecanalsthose arecivilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was established
by
th
being
filledupbythefilling
stations(CNG/petrol
pump)
in
the
projectarea.
the Mughals on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17 century
Highway
borrowpits/canals
which were
100 feethave beenSince
narrowedconsidering
its immense potentialityof growthandwidedevelopment.
then
down
at
points
to
only
12
feet.
Most
of
the
canals
in
the
DND
area
have
this Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
been
up duewith
to industrial
waste riverand garbage
dumping causing
severeentirefilled
resources
a flourishingport. Undoubtedly
Dhaka,
thewater
during thearea is Historicallybeyond thecapitallogging
of Bangladeshhas monsoon
an excitingbecause
historythe
andprojecta rich culture.
jurisdictionof citymunicipal
authority
disposeitupstarted
the garbages.
1.5
known as theof mosquesand tomuslims,
attractingAbout
travellers
million(2005)of timethe DND
project area
live withthe risk itas wasthefrom farpeople
and nearfromimmemorial.
Accordingto history,
authorities
concerned
failed
to
take
long
term
measurestoimprovethefounded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
situation.
suchtheas French
Dhaka-Chittagong
roadbefore
andbecame a Two
trade national
centre forhighways
the British,and the Dutch
Dhaka-Narayanganj
have Itbifurcated
DNDtheproject
intoof three
coming under Britishlink
ruleroadin 1757.
was againthenamed
capitalEast
parts
without
adequate
drainagefacilities
which
cause
obstructionof natural
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition
of
flow
of
water.
Unplanned
road
network
also
causesflood
hazards,
drainagethe Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
congestionand grown
disruption
urban utility
services.
So, to improvetheDhaka has now
into aindynamic
city offering
opportunity
for millions
existing
drainagedrainage
canal, rehabilitationofof migrants
withsituation,an area re-excavationof about 256ofsquare
kilometre(GOB, 2003)
pump
stationandconstructionofroadcrossing
bridgeandculverts
needtoexcluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
restorethe normal
forandthe isdwellersin thetois currently
aroundlivelihood
12 million
projected
to projectgrow toarea
20 adjacentmillion in
Dhaka
mega-citywithsocio-economic
andenvironmental
upgradation
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing(BWDB,
Henceurban planningshoulddependon comprehensivea blend of2008).
old andnewthearchitectural
trends,Dhaka
is developing
fast as aandintegrated
approachtowards
mitigationofsuchadverseimpacts.
modern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag and
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
7.1
Water
Qualityfor city
residents
in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence of
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment ofSurfaceof Dhakais in very
condition,
especiallyin thedry
the rivers
andwaterchannels,
disposalof pooruntreated
pollutants
to therivers,season.
Consequently,
dilutionofcontaminants
isdrasticallyreducedintheunplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
dry(Worldsurface
Bank, water2006).quality.
The water
quality ofhas been
haveseason
all degraded
Developersof thelandsrivers
and buildings
seriously
affected.
Water
and
air
pollutionhasalready
becomeahave made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage serious
systemconcern.
Thewatersurfacewater Thein Dhaka
is waterpolluted
dumpingand createdlogging.
surfaceof severely
the riversthroughsurrounding
theManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
171

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strictof municipal solid wastes, indiscriminate discharge of untreated waste water
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations are
and industrial effluents, oil and lubes spillage from the operation of riverprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andports and ship wreckage. The serious surface water pollution is found inmanagement of water resources using advanced technologies.
Buriganga river due to tannery wastes and industrial discharges anddomestic sewage (Islam, et.al, 2003). It has been reported in recent surveys
that around 60% of pollutants are generated from industrial sources and the
1. INTRODUCTION
rest 40% are mainly from domestic sources and to a lesser extent from
untreated dispersal of lube and burnt oils from river transport/vessels. It is
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
reported that more than 60,000 Cubic meter/day of toxic waste fromtropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,industries enters the Dhaka canal and river system. Both industrial effluent
arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundand domestic waste water are being disposed mostly untreated into theurban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to overwetlands and natural streams in and around Dhaka city causing pollution of
abstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
river water and affecting ground water quality. Every year ground water
rivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by thelevel is receding fast due to over extraction. River encroachment isdwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
narrowing the river width and reducing the water flow. Large scale
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
sedimentation in river beds is causing reduction of normal depth of river
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of the(RPMC, 2008). Because of human activities like encroachment of rivers,
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
floodplains and low lying areas, disposal of sewage and solid waste,
one. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water forindustrial waste disposal and high rate of migration of the poor people in the
shortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forslum areas of Dhaka city, the peripheral rivers are being polluted seriously.
water in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
Apart from industrial sources, surface water in Dhaka is also extensively
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, it
polluted by human faeces as sanitation is inadequate.
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from thethreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds tomajor urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth of
8. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering down
Dhaka city is under threat due to rapid urbanization, population pressure andby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disaster
extensive resource use, conversion of wetlands and channels into housing
threats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
settlement and other various human interventions. Interrelationships ofplanners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of thedifferent factors of disasters and their possible impacts are shown
increasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance that
diagrammatically in figure - 1. Human interference on nature has limited thewill lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
biodiversity and aquatic habitats. Bio-diversity preservation is an urgent
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
need of time to save the civilisation and face the challenges of the 21ts
response system is the main focus of the paper.
century. Quality of water and soil has been deteriorated due to unplanned
land use, undesirable encroachment for settlements, indiscriminate disposalof hazardous industrial and sewage wastes. The serious problem in the urban
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
areas is mushroom growth of real estate business which accelerate filling of
low lying areas, natural channels and ponds for construction of high-rise
Access to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning ofresidential and commercial buildings.
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
water refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. All
surface water bodies within and around the urban industrial centres are now
highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
166
172

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia
New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
deterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned andirrational urbanization. The main objectives of the study are to highlightmechanism for mitigating fresh water scarcity and polluted surface water
through good governance by coordinated and integrated approach ofdifferent agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biologicalenvironment significantly.
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Figure 1: Linkages between causes of Disaster and Impact on natural
Bangladesh is historically a resource
riverine country
with important ecologicalBasezones.This
A riverine
environment
shapesthelife-styleof its societiesits
is causing reduction in the floodwater retention
areas andalong
therebyriverbanks.
time and
immemorial
citiesarea.
as wellascausing
waterFromloggingdrainage nations,problemssocieties,
in the city
Illegalcivilization
have
grown
near
rivers.
The
city
of
Dhaka
was
establishedbyoccupation and constructions in the surrounding rivers drasticallyth reduced
centurythethe bank of thein theearly 17 degraded
the Mughals
drainageonpotentialities
of riverthe Burigangacity which
enhancedconsideringits
immensepotentialityofgrowthanddevelopment.
Since
then
environmental condition. Smooth navigation and fisheries are also adversely
thisBuriganga
hasencroachments
been serving (BWDB,
the peopleof Dhaka city with its
affectedby suchriverkind of2007).
entire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, thecapital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historically
known
as OF
the GOVERNMENT
city of mosques andmuslims, it started
attractingWATER
travellers
9. ROLEIN COMBATINGSURFACE
from
far
and
near
from
time
immemorial.
Accordingtohistory,
it wasPOLLUTION
founded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
becamea tradeof centre
for theand
British,thewaterFrenchand theDutch
beforeThe pollution
both surface
groundaroundvariousindustrial
comingunder
Britisheffluent
rule in discharge
1757. It was
Eastcentres byuntreatedintoagain
waternamed
bodiestheis acapitalcriticalofwater
Bengalin
1905
andbecamethecapitalof
EastPakistanafter
thepartitionofmanagement issue (NWPo, 1999). The National Water Policy on industrial
theIndianstates
subcontinent
in 1947.
As thecapital of Bangladeshsincepollutionthat the policy(1999)of government
in this regard
is: 1971,
Dhaka�hasZoning
now grown
intoadynamic
cityoffering
opportunityforregulations will be established for location millionsof newof migrants
withof about
256 watersquare availability
kilometre (GOB,
2003)
industries anforarea
freshand safe
and effluent
excludingdischarge
peripheralpossibilities
towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
is currently
around12
millionprojected toto 20government
million in� Effluent disposal
willandbe ismonitored
by grow
relevant
2020, making
it thetoworlds
largestcity (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
agencies
preventthirdwater
pollutiona blend
of
old
and
new
architectural
trends,Dhaka is watercourses
developing fast
� Standards of effluent disposal into common
willasbea
modern metropolitan
city.Resources
Dhaka is Planningsurroundedby Buriganga,
Turag andset by Water
Organization(WARPO)in
Sitalakhyaconsultation
rivers and withinter-connectedcanals
which
used
to
form
a
life-line
Department of Environment (DoE)for city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence of� Industrial polluters will be under law to pay for the cleanup of
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment ofwater-body polluted by them
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
The departmental
and their functions
involved in regulations
combating
unplanned
road networkagencies
and non-complianceof environmental
surfacepollution
are water
as follows.
have
allwaterdegradedsurfacequality. Developers of lands and buildings
have made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage systemand created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding theManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
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173

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
Table 1: Responsibilities
of Government
Institutions
regarding water are
enforcementof regulatory andlegislative measures.
Recommendations
Dhakaprescribed for judicious use qualityof landofandwater with proper planning andmanagementof water resources using advancedServices
technologies.
AgencyDepartment of Environment(DoE)

1. INTRODUCTION

Enforcement of environmental rules, administration of theOpen Space and Wetland Conservation Act, 2000 and Urban
Water Body Protection Law,2001.

Responsible for handling and disposal of solid waste;

Dhaka City
Corporationfrom various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
Mankindis suffering
management of public green spaces; surface drainage(DCC)
tropical cyclone, storm surge,
tornado,river
erosion,draught,
maintenanceof somelakes,
operationof healthearthquake,facilities.
arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and around
Plan (DAP) fora planned
townships
urban areas likeUnnayan
Dhaka Detailed
city areArea
deterioratingday
by daydue toensuring
overRajdhani
environmental
upgradation.
abstraction(RAJUK)
of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
Kartipakha
riversandunplanned
use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by the
Dhaka Water and Sewarage
Responsible
supplyandof infrastructures.
pure, safe, anddwelling(DWASA)
houses, government
offices forandensuring
installations
Authority
dependable
water
to
city
dwellers
andregular
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire countrydisposal
dependof
sewage.
greatly on Dhaka for various
reasons. Dhaka
is one of ofthewatermega-citiesof theImplementationand Maintenanceresources projects
Bangladesh
Water been rated as the environmentally most polluted
world which has alreadyfor flood control, drainage and environmental improvement.
Development
Board
one. City dwellers havebeen facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water for(BWDB)
shortage of supply againstControl
demand.
the backdrop
rising demandforand Inadministrationof ofgovernment
owned land
Ministryof Land(MoL) industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
water indomestic,
including land reclassification and settlement of land
centres, a new paradigm shifts
is requiredin the light of globalization. So, it
reclaimed
and accreted.
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from the
Bangladesh Inland Water
Responsible Thisfor inlandtransport
andresponds
maintaining
threat ofAuthority
environmental degradation.
paperwater
focuses
on andtotransport
navigable
waterways;
dredging,
shipping
terminal
major urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growthof(BIWTA)
maintenancepopulation in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
Ministry
Industry
Overallpolicy city
directionfor industrial
development;role inourcity. of
Groundwater
level
of Dhaka
is now
alarmingly
loweringadown
developmentofindustryin
specifiedzones
incomplianceby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disasterwith pollution control regulations in factory design.
threats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
planners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theincreasing
populationandwithsevere ofimpactof environmental
imbalancethat
Encroachment
pollution
the rivers
surrounding Dhaka
continue
will
lead
a
specialtypeofdisasterhereintermedashuman-induced
disaster.
despite the existence of good number of government agencies involved in
Howmanagement
this type ofofdisasters
managedwithefficientand dueemergency
thethe riverscan
andbewater
bodies.
It hasworsenedto lack
response
system
is
the
main
focus
of
the
paper.
of co-ordination among different service agencies like DCC, Roads andHighways Department (RHD), RAJUK, BWDB, DWASA and DoE. There isa serious problem of overlapping of jurisdictions among many government
2. THEME
OF leads
THE toSTUDY
agencieswhich
inaction. The roles of DCC, the planning authority
RAJUK and the line ministries in urban management are not clear and coAccess to freshwater
is a global
the beginningof
ordination
among
themresources
is very limited.
Allconcern
relevantsince
government
agencies
humancivilization
centres started
growingofandtechnology
need
to comeforwardasforurban
a comprehensive
management
environmentinadvanced
the
issue
got
more
importanceincourseoftime.
Inthis paper,
land and water in and around Dhaka city. The existing laws and regulations
water toreferssurfaceincluding
fresh waterfrom such andplacesas rivers, lakes
need
be to
updatedrestructuring
re-organizationof andthewetlandsaswell
asundergroundwater
sources.
For
the
last
few
decades
different development agencies and their co-ordination for effective andsecured, safe,
reliable andsupply of inwater
been oneof thebalanceddevelopmentof stable
the mega-city
the haspresent
context
ofleadingsocioeconomic
andsocialchallenges
faced
by
the
Asian
developing
countries
aspolitical and structural realities. It is important to establish an apex body
theirpopulation,
economy,
urban
areas
and
mega-cities
growgeometrically.
with administrative, financial and enforcement power for co-ordination of
Wateractivities
quality problems
increasingly
seriousday bymeasuresday. Alltheireffectivelyareasbecoming
well as forcost-effective
mitigation
surfacewaterbodieswithinandaroundtheurbanindustrial
centresnow
to build support for better management. Environmental concerns arearemultihighly polluted.
Surfaceground wateris also becoming
increasingly
sectoralissues forwhichandinstitutionalarrangements
are criticalto thecontaminatedwithinandaroundgrowthcentresofpopulationandindustrial
success and failure of all initiatives.

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
9.1 Promoting Complianceinclude encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,
Industrial discharges into rivers, canals and ground water must be
industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
controlled if water quality is to be improved. This will require strict2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
enforcement of environmental clearance condition and effluents standards.
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
There has been no strict enforcement of environmental regulations to date.
deterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
To reduce the pollution of surface water bodies, both on-site and centralised
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
treatment plants for industrial effluents are required. Each industrial unit
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned andshould have an effluent treatment plant according to the Environment
irrational urbanization. The main objectives of the study are to highlight
Conservation Act-1995. To reduce the pollution of ground water bodies, amechanism for mitigating fresh water scarcity and polluted surface water
reduction of pollutants leached to the aquifer can be achieved by on-sitethrough good governance by coordinated and integrated approach oftreatment in combination with improved conveyance of effluents to adifferent agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management
centralised treatment facility. Strict control on new industrial set up around(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biologicalthe city must be applied through more effective use of the Environmental
environment significantly.
Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA). It is highly
appreciating that Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has already taken
decision to remove the Hazaribagh tannery in the industrial complex at
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Savar with a provision of treatment plants of the effluents. Similar action
should be taken for Dholai Khal outfall containing sewage wastes.
Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecologicalzones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
9.2 Priority Projects Under BWDB
river banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well ascivilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was established by
Dhaka Integrated Flood Protection Project was implemented covering
the Mughals on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17th century
the most densely populated western part of about 136 sq. km. with a view toconsidering its immense potentiality of growth and development. Since thenproviding the city dwellers a living condition free from flood, drainage andthis Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
environmental hazards (BWDB, 1992). Environment of city improved as
entire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, thepolluted water does not stay within the city area and trees have been planted
capital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historicallyon the sides of the embankment. Living standard of the city dwellers have
known as the city of mosques and muslims, it started attracting travellers
improved due to this project. Yet a vast area of about 124 sq.km. of Easternfrom far and near from time immemorial. According to history, it waspart remains unprotected for which Dhaka Integrated Flood Control
founded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
Embankment cum Eastern Bypass Road Multipurpose Project is underbecame a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
process of approval of GoB (BWDB, 2008) to protect the eastern part ofcoming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East
Dhaka city from flood, drainage and environmental hazards. Realistic
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition ofremedial measures are also being undertaken to augment the flow of
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
Buriganga for ensuring proper management of water resources for
Dhaka has now grown into a dynamic city offering opportunity for millions
environmental conservation (BWDB, 2006). Besides, some steps need to beof migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
undertaken for protecting the existing flood control works, preventing illegal
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
use of land and illegal occupants including construction of illegal structures
is currently around 12 million and is projected to grow to 20 million inwhich create the problem of water logging by narrowing the drainage
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
canals. Treatment of all industrial waste needs to be ensured to protect
a blend of old and new architectural trends, Dhaka is developing fast as aenvironmental degradation. It is also equally important to recover areas
modern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag andoccupied up by land grabbers in absence of Rajuk Detailed Area Plan (DAP)
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
for accumulating waste water for pumping and protecting the overall
for city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence ofenvironment.
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment of
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
9.3 Further Actions to be Taken
unplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
have all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
Government should have a dynamic role to mark the areas of rivers
have made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage systemand canals which were illegally encroached to bring back their original
and created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding theshapes and sizes which includes following effective steps.
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
175

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
� Land reclassification for industries, commercial and residential
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations areareasprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning and�
Strengthening
water quality
for participatory EMP/ETP
managementof water resources
usingmonitoring
advanced technologies.
� Strict enforcement of the Environment Conservation Act-1995 &Rules for maintaining a habitable environment
� Establishment of standards of effluent disposal into common
1. INTRODUCTION
watercourses
� Providing
fiscaland various
other financial
forcaused
retrofitting
or forMankindis sufferingfromkinds incentivesof disasters
by flood,
reductionstormof effluents
industries
tropical cyclone,
surge, fromtornado,river erosion, draught, earthquake,�Devising
effective
water
qualityarsenic and environmental pollution. Themanagement
environmenttechnology
within and around
Applying
polluters
to makepolluters
landovertourban �areas
like Dhaka
citypayare principle
deteriorating
day theby daydue torectify
them
abstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
rivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by thedwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
10.
CITY MANAGEMENTThePARTICIPATORY
socio-economic conditionsof people of the(PCM)
entire country depend
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of the
Administrative
servicein Dhaka city bymost
government
world which hasstructure
already of
been
rateddelivery
as the environmentally
polluted
institutions
is complex.
Servicesdeliveredagencies
one. City dwellers
have been
facingareacutescarcitybyofdifferent
safe drinking
waterwithforpoor
governance
and
lack
of
co-ordination.
The
maincausesarethelimitedshortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forrole
the DCCandthat high-riseplays in buildings
urban management.
It haswaterandin authority
domestic,ofindustrial
and commercial
limited
role
in
city
planning
andmanagement
andhighlydependent
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So,onitcentralUrban
planning
stilllies toonsave
topthedownplanning
will be agovernment.
great challenge
for theconcerncitizencity fromtheapproachwithout consultationof the This
local.paper
The approach
be bottom
threat of environmental
degradation.
focuses onshould
and responds
toup
whereinlocal willregarding
be involved
and relatedparticipate
in urbanmajor
urbanthedisasters
water
issues.
Rapidplanninggrowthandofmanagement.
Government
never
solve
the problems
population in aThe
given
area is the alone
main canreasonfor themultiple
problemsandindisasters
properly withoutwith its limited
resources
our city. Groundwaterlevelpeople’sof Dhakaparticipationcity is now alarmingly
lowering
down
andthisyearreasonpeoples’is essentiallyby 2manpower.
to 3 meter For
every
(IWM,
2006)participation
resulting frommining andrequired.
disasterDoE
hasoftheland
responsibility
controlling
environmental
regulationthese
threats
subsidenceofwhich
has become
alarming
for theas urban
affectlandandmayhousingplanners.
Timecome development.
when the city Under
will failtheto circumstancesbear the burdenwithoutof thepublicawareness,
consciousness
development
and structured
planning
increasing
population
with severe impact
of environmental
imbalance
that
procedures,
it is impossible
to achieve
institutionalframework.
It iswill lead a special
type of disasterhereinbetter
termedas human-induced
disaster.
experienced
that
to solvewith
andefficient
mitigateandtheemergency
different
How this typeof government
disasters canfailed
be managedproblems
faced bydwellers.
still lacking is structured planning,
response system
is city
the mainfocusWhatof theispaper.
development and management procedure with enhanced peoples’
participation in city management. In case of Dhaka being a mega-city with apopulation
about
million, government alone cannot face the different
2. THEMEofOF
THE12STUDY
types of urban disasters. For successful management and mitigation ofwater-related
disaster,participationisAccess to fresh
water awarenessresources isbuilding
a globalamongst
concernpeoples’
since thebeginning ofessential.
So,participatory
approachofcitymanagement
has
been
given
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
emphasis
to copewith complex
issuesofoftime.
current
trendsofadvanced theissue effectively
got more importancein course
In thispaper,
urbanization.
Government
alone
is
not
enoughtomanage,mitigateandtowater refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andrescueoperation
the onset ofwater
disaster.
A strong
apexlast
body
bewetlands
as wellduring
as undergroundsources.
For thefewshould
decades
formedtopromotecross-sectoral
coordination
andminimize
jurisdictional
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
conflicts.
element of
the bystrategic
framework
will countries
be adequate
economic An
andimportantsocial challenges
faced
the Asiandevelopingastomonitorenvironmental
in compliancewith growpublicgeometrically.
information,
theirpopulation,
economy,pollution
urban areas
and mega-cities
aimed
at raisingawarenessof the causes
and impacts
environmental
Water quality
problems
are becoming
increasingly
seriousofday
by day. All
degradation
at disseminating
information
relatedintervention.
surface waterandbodieswithin and aroundthe urbanaboutindustrial
centresare nowSuchinitiatives
areessential
to
build
civil
societyandprivatesectorsupport,highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
bothfor the necessary
and centres
for strengthening
enforcementofcontaminatedwithin and investment
around growthof populationand industrial
166
176

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia
New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
environmental regulations. The participatory approach of management has
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
been proved to be pragmatic in different sectors e.g. water sector,
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,community self help programs etc. The PCM will work in other areas of city
industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
management including disaster. An organizational framework of PCM may
2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
e conceived as follows (chart 1):
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
A suggestedNow
organizational
Integrated
Environmental
deterioration.
Dhaka has framework
also a large forslum
populationthat will create
Dhaka citysanitation and water
problems for gettingManagement
safe drinking(IEM)
water,ininadequate
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned andirrational urbanization. Themain
objectives
ofRuralthe study are to highlight
Ministryof LocalGovernment,
Development
and
Cooperatives
mechanism for mitigating fresh water
scarcity and polluted surface water(LGRD)
through good governance by coordinated and integrated approach ofdifferent agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biologicalenvironment significantly.
Ministry of Land

Ministry of Industry

3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
DCC

DoE

RAJUK

BWDB

DWASA

Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecologicalzones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
river banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well ascivilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was established by
the Mughals on Police
the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17th century
one potentiality of growth and development. Since thenconsidering itsCommissi
immenser
this Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
entire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, thecapital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historicallyknown as the city of mosques and muslims, it started attracting travellers
from far and near from time immemorial. According to history, it was
NGOs MughalLawyers
Technical
Adviseroffounded in 1608
AD as
the seat of imperial
Victoryof Bengal. It
from BUET/DU
Supremebecame a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
Courtthe capital of East
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition of
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
Environmentalist
Representatives from
Peoples Representatives
Dhaka has now grown intoandaCivil
dynamic
offering
opportunity fori.e.millions
Society city Journalist
associationsMPof migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
is currently
around12 million andis projected
to grow
to 20
Chart
1: Organizationalframeworkfor IEMin Dhaka
citymillion in
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
PCM
willandbring
opportunities
local people
achievea blendof oldnewarchitecturalfortrends,
Dhaka participation
is developingtofast
as acompactness
intownships
tomaximum
levelofeconomy,conveniencemodern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag andandbeauty.
Bothgovernment
and people canals
should whichcome used
forwardfor sustainable
Sitalakhya
riversand inter-connected
to forma life-line
servicedelivery. in
Bytheensuring
good thegovernancedetermine thefor city residents
past. During
last twentyPCM
years,willa convergenceofpreparation
implementation
ofruralcity masterplan
to a greatencroachment
extent. PCM ofisunregulated andindustrial
units, rapid
to urbanmigration,
one
in
which
peoplecanworkandperform
theirtasks
easily,conveniently
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
andeconomically.
The purposeof PCM is toofmake
the city functionallyunplanned
road networkand non-complianceenvironmental
regulations
efficient for all the residents and users making the city environmentally
have all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
healthyandmanysustainable.
Nevertheless,will thesecurea systemproperhave madeof the canals
non-existent PCM
damaging
drainage
relationshipof man,society,The
activity
to waterattain ofsocial,economic,
biologicaland created water
logging.
surfacethe rivers
surroundingtheand physical environment in balance.
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
177

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
11. MITIGATION MEASURES OF URBAN DISASTERS
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations areprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning and
Urban disaster management in Dhaka is not only limited to technical aspects
management of water resources using advanced technologies.
but it encompasses also social, economic, cultural and environmental needs.
The mitigation measures will include integrated strategies for structural andnon-structural interventions, institutional participation, infrastructural
1. INTRODUCTION
security, enhanced community safety and resilience. In a nutshell, integrated
disaster risk management, effective monitoring and evaluation, active
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,community participation and networking are the key factors for successful
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,
mitigation of urban disaster. It recommends appropriate method ofarsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundmitigation, preparedness and emergency response, proper education,
urban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to over
information, effective forecasting and early warning.
abstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
Recommendations are made for implementation method of land use
rivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by theplanning and legislation, housing and settlement, landscape design, urban
dwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
conservation and the management of the water resources up to the optimal
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
level. More attention should be given while implementing projects for flood
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of theprotection and road network. Any solution to be permanent and sustainable
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
for mitigation of disaster calls for broad political and social consensus forone. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water forthe comprehensive plan. The present system as experienced cannot be theshortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forsolution and it must be changed. What is needed is to think strategically forwater in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
a properly planned city to promote PCM to enforce regulatory measures tocentres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, it
protect environment and combat surface water pollution. There should be
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from the
PCM to deal with public health, education, water supply and sanitation
threat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds toproblems necessary for healthy growth and socio-economic development. It
major urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth ofis essential for participatory approach of city management for overall
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
improvement of economic, social and environmental condition. It is
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering down
urgently needed to establish an apex body which will co-ordinate theby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disaster
activities of DWASA, RAJUK, DCC, BWDB and other agencies to savethreats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
Dhaka city from any disaster. Citizen should be sensitized and motivatedplanners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of thethrough awareness building by DCC and through community participation.
increasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance that
DCC should provide adequate service to urban people and formulate an
will lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
appropriate slum development policy with the participation of slum
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
dwellers.
response system is the main focus of the paper.
The mitigation measures can be phased into three stages forprioritized implementation
Immediate measures
2. THEME OF THE STUDY� Strengthening the performance and promoting co-ordination of thegovernment and non-government institutions.
Access to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning of�Restoring illegally
occupiedin canals
and andriverstechnology
of Dhaka
human civilization
as urbancentreslands
startedgrowing
to gotfinalize
Detailed Area
Plan byadvancedcity
the andissue
moretheimportancein courseof Rajuk,time. Inwhich
this would
paper,
beremoved
with
the
help
of
local
administrationwater refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes and� Building
the Forcitizens
wetlands
as well as awarenessundergroundamongst
water sources.
the lastandfew ensuring
decadesparticipatory
management.
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading� Ensuring
sustainabilityof water
supplymonitoringof watereconomicand social
challenges facedby theAsiananddeveloping
countries
asqualityby
DWASA.
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
Compellingthearepolluters
to install
Effluent serious
Treatment(ETP)
Water �quality
problems
becoming
increasingly
dayPlants
by day.
Allfor allbodies
industries
mandatory.
surface water
withinand around the urban industrial centres are now
ShiftingSurfaceof Hazaribag
Tannery
andis treatmentof Dholai
outfallhighly�polluted.
and groundwater
also becoming
increasingly
containing
contaminatedwithinsewage
and around growth centres of population and industrial
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ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which� Establishing sewage treatment plants.
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,
Water
quality
by applying waterpolluters
penalty
sewage� andsolid
wastemonitoring
disposal, insufficient
supplyandsystem.
sanitation,
Mid-term
Measuresindustrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
Openingsilted upcapacity
river and
fordayimproving2004).� Waste
assimilationof channels
the riversbyis dredging
decreasing
by daythedrainagewater
flow
systemsandnavigations.
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
� Shifting
dockyards
Buriganga
river banks
to further
deterioration.
NowofDhaka
has alsofroma largeslum populationthat will
createdownstreamformakingproperenvironmental
management.
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
� Establishment
ofhavephase
wise theCentralPlantsshortages.
The urban poor
becomeworstEffluent
sufferer Treatmentof unplanned
andin industrial
areas.objectives of the study are to highlightirrational (CETP)
urbanization.
The main� Increasing
DWASA’s
coverageandfrompresentsurface
30% towater75%
mechanism
for mitigating
freshsewage
water scarcity
polluted
the cityarea.
through of
goodgovernanceby coordinated and integrated approach of�
Bringing
industrialists
underanda broader
commitment
for overall
different agencies and institutions,
Participatory
City Management
pollution
control.
(PCM) toimprovethe social, economic, physical and biological
Long
term
Measuresenvironment significantly.
� Augmentation of the Buriganga flow by restoring silted up links
with Jamuna by BWDB.
3. HISTORICALBACKGROUND� Maintaining
navigability of the Buriganga and improvement ofwater quality of the surrounding rivers.
Bangladesh
is historicallya coverageriverine country
with important ecological� Ensuring
full sewage
by DWASA.
zones.�A Bringing
riverine environment
shapesthelife-styleof its societies
its
all industrial units under full CETP
coveragealong
withinriver banks.
From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well as2015.
civilization
havegrown neartechnologies
rivers. The city
was establishedby� Using state-of-art
and ofa Dhakawide rangeof alternativeth
the Mughals
on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17 century
materials
consideringits
immense potentiality
growth andthen� Decentralising
Dhaka and of
spreadingout development.
the economicSince
activities
this Buriganga
has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
outsideriver
Dhaka
entire �resources
witha flourishing river
port. Undoubtedly
theMotivating industrialists
to introduce
cleaner Dhaka,production
capital oftechnology
Bangladeshhasanexciting
history
andarich
culture.
Historicallyto minimize pollution load at industries.
known� asImplementation
the city of mosquesand Integrated
muslims, itFloodstartedattracting
travellersof Dhaka
Control
Embankment
from far cum
and nearfromtime
immemorial.
Accordingtohistory,
it wasEastern Bypass Road Multipurpose Project to protect
thefounded in
1608 part
AD of
asthe
thecityseatfromof imperialof Bengal.
It
eastern
floods, toMughal
removeVictorywater logging
and tobecame aupgrade
trade centrefortheBritish,theFrench
and
the
Dutch
beforeoverall environmental condition by BWDB.
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East� Development of master plan for protecting floods and proper
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition ofdrainage of the city area and implement through PCM approach.
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
� Need-based research and development on monitoring andDhaka has now grown into a dynamic city offering opportunity for millions
evaluation of water resources in Dhaka city.
of migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
is currently around 12 million and is projected to grow to 20 million in
12. CONCLUSION
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
a blend of old and new architectural trends, Dhaka is developing fast as a
Among the disasters happened, human-induced disasters are not lessmodern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag andimportant. Both natural disasters and human-induced disasters are equally
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
important. Pollution of both surface and ground water caused by humanfor city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence ofactivates and interventions may create a havoc making the city
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment of
uninhabitable. Hence, natural disasters and human-induced disasters should
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
be concomitantly addressed. Water use efficiency and pollution control of
unplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
both surface and ground water in the future should be taken within thehave all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
framework of emerging technology, social goals, national and international
have made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage system
rules and regulations, environmental concerns and socio-economic realities.
and created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding the
Needless to say, surface water treatment would be cost effective if theManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
179

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
pollution level of surface water can be reduced substantially throughenforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations are
effective preventive measures in cognizance with acceptable water qualityprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andstandards. Existing pollution of surface water should be treated andmanagement of water resources using advanced technologies.
protected from further pollution by untreated domestic and industrial waste
water. Many opine that the urban environment is going to face impending
crises if the surrounding rivers and water bodies are not appropriately
1. INTRODUCTION
protected to make a pollution free healthy environment. Improved
performance and coordination among the Governments and NGOs are
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
crucial with greater involvement of participation of the commons. GoB
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,
alone will not be able to face all of these problems. As an approach to solve
arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundthe problems, PCM may be considered as a possible strategy by involving
urban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to over
all the stakeholders of a city to address such a complex issue. In fine,abstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
management of water-related disaster in an over-overtly populated megarivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by thecity like Dhaka needs an intensive and comprehensive study. People ofdwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
Dhaka city would discover a “new sun” shining overhead when such
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
anthropocentric vision would ultimately be achieved. Indeed, this leads
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of theutmost help to humanity in the long run.
world which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
one. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water for
shortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand for
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
water in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, it
The author gratefully acknowledges the contribution of following
will be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from theinstitutions for providing valuable information that has proved extremely
threat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds touseful in producing this paper: Bangladesh Water Development Board
major urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth of(BWDB), Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Centre for Environmental
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) and South Asian Disasterour city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering downManagement Centre (SADMC) of International University of Businessby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disaster
Agriculture and Technology (IUBAT), Dhaka, Bangladesh University of
threats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
Engineering and Technology (BUET)
planners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theincreasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance thatwill lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
REFERENCES
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
ADB, 2007,.Asian Water Development Outlook 2007, Asian Development
response system is the main focus of the paper.
Bank, P.3
ADB, 2003, The Water Policy of the Asian Development Bank, Published by
ADB, June2003, P.17
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
Ahmed, Murshed (2004), Development and management Challenges ofIntegrated Planning for Sustainable Productivity of Water Resources,
Access to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning of
Bangladesh Journal of Political Economy (BJPE), Bangladesh
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
Economic Association, Volume 21, No. 2, December 2004, P.123
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
BWDB, 2006, Development Project Proposal for Augmentation ofwater refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andBuriganga flow by Restoring Silted up links with Jamuna, DPP
wetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
January-2006, P. 52
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
BWDB, 1992, Development Project Proposal for Dhaka Integrated Floodeconomic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
Protection Project (BWDB Component: Flood Protection and Project
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
Implementation Assistance), DPP 1992, P.15
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. All
BWDB, 2008, Development Project Proposal for Dhaka Integrated Floodsurface water bodies within and around the urban industrial centres are now
Control Embankment Cum Eastern Bypass Road Multipurpose
highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
Project, DPP Jan-2008, P. 17.
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
166
180

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
ICUS Report 31

areas. The major factors are human activities and interventions which
BWDB, 2008, Revised Development Project Proforma/Proposal (RDPP)
include encroachment on the river bank, flood plains and low lying areas,for Drainage Improvement of Dhaka-Narayangonj-Demra (DND)
sewage and solid waste disposal, insufficient water supply and sanitation,
Project (Revised), Jun-2008, P. 5.
industrial waste disposal, upstream diversions and abstractions (Ahmed,
Daily Star, 2008, The Daily Star, A national daily newspaper of
2004). Waste assimilation capacity of the rivers is decreasing day by day
Bangladesh. May 1, 2008
and micro-organism is being destroyed due to increasing water quality
GoB, 2003, Bangladesh At a Glance, Published by Department of Films anddeterioration. Now Dhaka has also a large slum population that will create
Publications, 2003 edition, Ministry of Information, Govt. of the
problems for getting safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and water
People’s Republic of Bangladesh, P.127
shortages. The urban poor have become the worst sufferer of unplanned and
GoB, 2005, National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction, General
irrational urbanization. The main objectives of the study are to highlight
Economics Division, Planning Commission, Government of themechanism for mitigating fresh water scarcity and polluted surface water
People’s Republic of Bangladesh, October 2005. P.178
through good governance by coordinated and integrated approach of
NWPO, 2009, National Water Policy, Ministry of Water Resources,
different agencies and institutions, and Participatory City Management
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, P.12, Section(PCM) to improve the social, economic, physical and biological
4.8
environment significantly.
Islam, Sirajul and Miah, Sajahan, 2003, Banglapedia, National
Encyclopaedia of Bangladesh (ed.), Volume 10, Asiatic Society of
Bangladesh, March 2003 P. 362
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
IWM, 2006, Resource Assessment and Monitoring of Water Supply Sources
for Dhaka City DWASA - 2006, Institute of Water Modelling, Volume
Bangladesh is historically a riverine country with important ecological- I Main Report, July 2006, P. 2-52
zones. A riverine environment shapes the life-style of its societies along its
RPMC, 2008, Report on Mitigation of River Pollution of Buriganga andriver banks. From time immemorial nations, societies, cities as well as
linked rivers – Turag, Tongi Khal, Balu, Sitalakhya and Dhaleswari;civilization have grown near rivers. The city of Dhaka was established byRiver Pollution Mitigation Committee, May 2008, P. 5.
the Mughals on the bank of the river Buriganga in the early 17th century
The World Bank, 2007, Dhaka: Improving Living Conditions for the Urban
considering its immense potentiality of growth and development. Since thenPoor, Bangladesh Development Series, Paper No. 17, June 2007, P.
this Buriganga river has been serving the people of Dhaka city with its
xiii, 33
entire resources with a flourishing river port. Undoubtedly Dhaka, the
The World Bank, 2006, Bangladesh Country Environmental Analysis,
capital of Bangladesh- has an exciting history and a rich culture. Historically
Bangladesh Development Series, Paper No. 12, September 2006,
known as the city of mosques and muslims, it started attracting travellers
P. 28
from far and near from time immemorial. According to history, it was
founded in 1608 AD as the seat of imperial Mughal Victory of Bengal. It
became a trade centre for the British, the French and the Dutch before
coming under British rule in 1757. It was again named the capital of East
Bengal in 1905 and became the capital of East Pakistan after the partition of
the Indian subcontinent in 1947. As the capital of Bangladesh since 1971,
Dhaka has now grown into a dynamic city offering opportunity for millionsof migrants with an area of about 256 square kilometre (GOB, 2003)
excluding peripheral towns and slum dwelling places. Dhaka’s population
is currently around 12 million and is projected to grow to 20 million in
2020, making it the worlds third largest city (World Bank, 2007). Possessing
a blend of old and new architectural trends, Dhaka is developing fast as amodern metropolitan city. Dhaka is surrounded by Buriganga, Turag and
Sitalakhya rivers and inter-connected canals which used to form a life-line
for city residents in the past. During the last twenty years, a convergence of
unregulated industrial units, rapid rural to urban migration, encroachment of
the rivers and channels, disposal of untreated pollutants to the rivers,
unplanned road network and non-compliance of environmental regulations
have all degraded surface water quality. Developers of lands and buildings
have made many of the canals non-existent damaging the drainage systemand created water logging. The surface water of the rivers surrounding theManagement of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollution
Management of Urban Disaster with Special Emphasis on Fresh Water Scarcity and Surface Water Pollutionin Dhaka City
167
in Dhaka City
181

October 2008, Beijing, China
October 2008, Beijing, China

active community participation, institutional development and strict
enforcement of regulatory and legislative measures. Recommendations areprescribed for judicious use of land and water with proper planning andmanagement of water resources using advanced technologies.
1. INTRODUCTION
Mankind is suffering from various kinds of disasters caused by flood,
tropical cyclone, storm surge, tornado, river erosion, draught, earthquake,arsenic and environmental pollution. The environment within and aroundurban areas like Dhaka city are deteriorating day by day due to overabstraction of ground water and pollution of surface water of the nearby
rivers and unplanned use of land. Dhaka is already over-crowded by thedwelling houses, government offices and installations and infrastructures.
The socio-economic conditions of people of the entire country depend
greatly on Dhaka for various reasons. Dhaka is one of the mega-cities of theworld which has already been rated as the environmentally most polluted
one. City dwellers have been facing acute scarcity of safe drinking water for
shortage of supply against demand. In the backdrop of rising demand forwater in domestic, industrial and high-rise buildings and commercial
centres, a new paradigm shifts is required in the light of globalization. So, itwill be a great challenge for the concern citizen to save the city from thethreat of environmental degradation. This paper focuses on and responds tomajor urban disasters regarding water related issues. Rapid growth of
population in a given area is the main reason for the multiple problems in
our city. Groundwater level of Dhaka city is now alarmingly lowering downby 2 to 3 meter every year (IWM, 2006) resulting from mining and disasterthreats of land subsidence which has become alarming for the urban
planners. Time may come when the city will fail to bear the burden of theincreasing population with severe impact of environmental imbalance thatwill lead a special type of disaster herein termed as human-induced disaster.
How this type of disasters can be managed with efficient and emergency
response system is the main focus of the paper.
2. THEME OF THE STUDY
Access to fresh water resources is a global concern since the beginning of
human civilization as urban centres started growing and technology
advanced the issue got more importance in course of time. In this paper,
water refers to surface fresh water from such places as rivers, lakes andwetlands as well as underground water sources. For the last few decades
secured, safe, reliable and stable supply of water has been one of the leading
economic and social challenges faced by the Asian developing countries as
their population, economy, urban areas and mega-cities grow geometrically.
Water quality problems are becoming increasingly serious day by day. All
surface water bodies within and around the urban industrial centres are now
highly polluted. Surface and ground water is also becoming increasingly
contaminated within and around growth centres of population and industrial
166
182

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia
New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

INVESTIGATING THE PERFORMANCEOF ALOS PRISM TO ESTIMATE BUILDINGHEIGHTS FOR URBAN RISKMANAGEMENTWATARU TAKEUCHI1, 2 , KAWIN WORAKANCHANA1, 2,
TAKEO TADONO3 and PENNUNG WARNITCHAI4
1
IIS, University of Tokyo, Japan
2
RNUS, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
3
EORC, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Japan
4
SET, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
wataru@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThis research is investigating the performance of ALOS PRISM toestimate building height for urban risk management. Firstly, triplet ALOS
PRISM images acquired on October 30, 2007 are collected including three
independent optical systems; nadir (UN), forward (UF) and backward (UB)
looking, respectively. Secondly digital surface model (DSM) are mappedusing three types of stereo pairs; (1) UN and UF, (2) UN and UB, and (3)UF and UB to evaluate DSMs estimated with different base-height ratios.
Finally satellite derived DSMs are compared with a point based buildingheight database it was found that root mean square errors are 2.71-13.54 m
with respect to sensor view model combinations. It is concluded that PRISM
has reasonably moderate vertical resolution for building heights estimation
on urban risk management purposes.
1. INTRODUCTION
Needs for better information
Earthquakes affecting urban areas can lead to catastrophic situations
and hazard mitigation requires preparatory measures at all levels. Structuralassessment is the diagnosis of the seismic health of buildings (Wasti et. al,2006). Assessment is the prelude to decisions about rehabilitation or evendemolition. The scale of the problem in dense urban settings brings about aneed for macro seismic appraisal procedures because large numbers ofexisting buildings do not conform to the increased requirements of newearthquake codes and specifications or have other deficiencies.
Our project is designed for the purpose of “Earthquake Risk andDisaster Management” for Bangkok in Thailand and has two segments
according to risk assessment for before the known scenario earthquakes andquick loss estimation based on damage detection just after the crisis (evenafter days and weeks following the event) that potentially includes theeffects of earthquakes caused by unknown faults. The risk assessment part
includes the evaluation and the implementation of different vulnerability

183

October 2008, Beijing, China

and risk algorithms using extensive database created and developed for
Bangkok in addition to satellite remote sensing.
Satellite based monitoring of urban area
Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) is one of the mostpromising satellite mission to achieve this goal. ALOS has three sensors
including two optical sensors (AVNIR and PRISM) and one SAR sensor(PALSAR). PRISM panchromatic instrument has been designed mainly formapping purpose with a specific aim towards digital surface model (DSM)
extraction. Indeed, PRISM is capable of simultaneous stereoscopic
acquisition of the observed landscape which should easier the automatic
processing of such data for DSM extraction (JAXA, 2007).
However few studies have already been done concerning thequalitative validation of PRISM (Tadono, 2004) stereoscopic acquisition
with respect to DSM extraction. One reason may be the recent commercial
availability of PRISM data along with geometric information provided asrational polynomial coefficients (RPC) models. Another reason may be theshort list of available digital processing solutions to generate high quality
DSM from PRISM stereoscopic acquisition. Geometric information about
the ALOS platform is available in addition to RAW images in order torigorously model the sensor geometry and to achieve high accuracy
measurements from these instruments.
Objective of this study
The objective of this study is investigating the performance of ALOS
PRISM to estimate building height for urban risk management. Three typesof satellite derived DSMs are compared with a point based building heightdatabase to evaluate if they have enough vertical resolution for buildingheights estimation on urban risk management purposes.
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 PRISM sensor model
PRISM sensor is characterized by each viewing angle one particularcamera with a number of Linear Array CCD chips in the focal plane. Three
PRISM images per scene are acquired almost simultaneously in forward,
nadir and backward modes in along-track direction as shown Figure 1. The
nominal viewing angles are (-23.8, 0, 23.8) degrees respectively.

Figure 1: Observation geometry of the ALOS PRISM sensor

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2.2 RPC as a camera replacement model
A set of rational polynomial coefficients (RPC) are used as a camera
replacement model. They are provided by the image distributors and are
known to have a significant bias. This bias can be removed with at least one
well-defined GCP (Fraser et al., 2006). The transformation relating the 2D
image coordinates of a point with its object coordinates is given as follows;where�, �, h:x, y:Numx, Denx:
Numy, Deny:Ai, Bi:latitude, longitude, and ellipsoidal height
image coordinates
cubic polynomial functions of object coordinates for x
cubic polynomial functions of object coordinates for yaffine parameters of offset correction.

In this study, we have collected 10 GCPs based on ground survery
supplemented by a visual interpretation of Google Earth. It resulted in thefull affine bias correction model which guarantee the best geometricperformance (Willneff, 2008).
2.3 Digital surface model from PRISM
Figure 2 shows the flowchart of this research to estimate buildingheight from PRISM. Firstly, triplet ALOS PRISM images acquired on
October 30, 2007 are collected including three independent optical systems;
nadir (UN), forward (UF) and backward (UB) looking, respectively. This
allows for production of a panchromatic stereoscopic image in 2.5 mhorizontal resolution along a satellite’s track. Secondly digital surface
model (DSM) are mapped using three types of stereo pairs; (1) UN and UF,(2) UN and UB, and (3) UF and UB to evaluate DSMs estimated withdifferent base-height ratios. Traditional aero-triangulation processing iscarried out supplemented by ground control points (GCP). Finally satellite
derived DSMs are compared with a point based building height databasefrom LiDAR to evaluate if they have enough vertical resolution forbuilding heights estimation on urban risk management purposes. A bunch of
DSM processing has been implemented on IDL code (ITT, 2008).

Figure 2: A flowchart to derive digital surface model (DSM) from PRISM.

Investigating the Performance of Alos Prism to Estimate Building Heights for Urban Risk Management 185

October 2008, Beijing, China

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
By computing individual digital surface model between all pairs of images(backward, nadir and forward) and analyzing them, it was possible tohighlight some repeating undulations in the resulting elevation images as
illustrated by the following figure. Figure 3 shows DSMs derived from threegeometries including forward, nadir and backward modes with ALOS
PRISM, respectively. A profile of LiDAR flight measurement path is shownin Figure 3-(d) in east-west (cross-track) direction.

(a) Forward-Nadir(b) Forward-Backward(c) Nadir-Backward(d) Forward image(e) Nadir image(f) Backward image
Figure 3: Digital surface models derived from three geometries including
forward, nadir and backward modes along with ALOS PRISM images. Dottedline in figure (d) shows a profile of LiDAR measuremet path.
Figure 4 shows a comparison of PRISM derived DSMs and LiDAR
data respectively. The flight path includes mainly three higher buildings:(A) 110 in pixel number, 17.2 m height, 3-story and 10 m width, (B) 160 inpixel number, 10.0 m height, 2-story and 50m width, and (C) 170 in pixel
number, 16.8 m height, 3-story and 30m width, respectively. The number ofbuilding story is supplemented by ground level survey.
(A)-building is the most accurately estimated by UF-UN image
followed by UB and NB. (B)-building height estimations are carried out themost accurately by UF-UB, UF-UN and UN-UB. (C)-building heights andwidth are estimated relatively accurately by UF-UN, followed by UN-UB
and poorly by UF-UB. A flat area (play ground) from pixel number 0 to 100
is well represented by LiDAR measurement, however, no DSMs from
PRISM shows flat area correctly with 1-10 m vertical errors. They are
originated from the on-board image compression into JPEG format and thisartifact can have a bad influence on the stereo-matching algorithm as it will
introduce some false patterns that may confuse the matching process,especially in lower elevations than PRISM pixel size (2.5m).

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ICUS Report 31(a) Forward-Nadir(b) Forward-Backward(c) Nadir-Backward
Figure 4: Comparison of PRISM derived DSMs and LiDAR.
Table 1. Standard deviations of DSMs compared with LiDAR in meters.
0-5 m (0-story)
5-10 m (1-story)
10-15 m (2-story)
15-20 m (3-story)

UF-UN
3.86
6.97
2.91
6.69

UF-UB
2.71
3.67
6.23
13.54

UN-UB
3.76
5.79
6.74
7.98

Table 1 shows a statistical analysis of ALOS DSMs with a standard
deviation. When partionning this statistical analysis along with building
story every 5 meters height, we end-up with standard deviation around 2.713.86 m for 0-story, 3.67-6.97 for 1-story, 2.91-6.74 for 2-story and 6.6913.54 for 3-story respectively. Those results are consistent with otherreports (Wolff et. al., 2007) available in the scientific literature about
PRISM derived DSM.

Investigating the Performance of Alos Prism to Estimate Building Heights for Urban Risk Management 187

October 2008, Beijing, China

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS
We have investigated the performance of ALOS PRISM to estimate
building height for urban risk management. Triplet ALOS PRISM images
with three independent optical systems are used to map DSMs UN-UF, UN
and UB, and (3) UF and UB to evaluate DSMs estimated with different
base-height ratios. Finally satellite derived DSMs are compared with a point
based building height database it was found that RMSE are 3.4m, 2.1m and2.9m respectively. It is concluded that PRISM has reasonably moderatevertical resolution for building heights estimation on urban risk management
purposes.
Addition to that, problems still exists in the interior orientation.
Comparison of PRISM DSM and reference LiDAR show a constant offset
in flight direction, while across flight direction, the differences vary in ahuge range. This effect can also be detected when regarding theco-registration of nadir and backward view: The residual size and direction
vary across flight direction, whereas they remain nearly constant in flight
direction.
REFERENCES
Wasti, S. Tanvir; Ozcebe, Guney (Eds.), 2006. Advances in Earthquake
Engineering for Urban Risk Reduction. Series: NATO Science Series:
IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 66, XXI, 551 ISBN: 9781-4020-4569-1.
Tadono T., Shimada M., Watanabe M., Hashimoto T., Iwata T., 2004.
Calibration and Validation of PRISM Onboard ALOS. International
Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. XXXV part B1,
13-18., Istanbul, Turkey.
Bignone, F. and Umakawa, H., 2008. Assessment of ALOS PRISM digitalsurface model extraction over Japan. International Archives of
Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. XXXVII part B1, 11351138, Beijing, China
Willneff, J., Wester, T., ROttensteiner, F. and Fraser, C. S., 2008. Precise
georeferencing of CARTOSAT imagery via different orientation
models. International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote
Sensing, Vol. XXXVII part B1, 1287-1294, Beijing, China.
ITT Visual Information Solutions, Image Processing & Data Analysis.
http://www.ittvis.com/ (Accessed on 20 Sep. 2008)

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ANALYTICAL COST MODEL IN
PROTECTIVE DESIGN METHODOLOGYCHUNLIN LIU 1,2, RA JOHN CRAWFORD1 and YEA SAEN FANG 1
1
K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd(KCPT), 159361, Singapore
2School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing
P.R., China
liu.chun.lin@kcpt.com.sg
ABSTRACTThe 911 event has prompted governments and corporations to takerisk management actions to provide greater protection for their operations,businesses, assets and personnel against man-made hazards, particularly
improvised explosive devices (IEDs) like vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs) andpersonnel-borne IEDs (PBIEDs).
However many have found that when they commenced on a physicalsecurity upgrade, they were up against many factors which made theprocess complex. Some may not realize this complexity or the interests ofthe various stakeholders as it is a relatively new topic.
However over a period of time, with greater experience, sharedknowledge and various public guidelines and standards, stakeholders are
increasingly more confident in implementing mitigation and protective
measures.
One of the requirements of a physical security upgrade exercise is thatit should address as many of the key concerns as possible beside security
and protection, e.g. aesthetics, image, workflow efficiency, user convenience,value-for-money.
A systematic and multi-factor approach is hence essential to satisfy
the requirements of various stakeholders. A holistic protective design
methodology is needed which can consider a panoply of relevant factors,
even if it is outside of one’s area of expertise, and weigh their respective
and combined cost-effectiveness to produce a successful balanced outcome.
A key requirement is funding for without a budget, protective
measures will not be implemented even if their importance is recognized.
Hence convincing stakeholders with cost figures and cost effectiveness is an
important part of the process.
The analytical cost model described in this paper provides a tool that
embodies an essential component of the holistic protective design
methodology. In other words, without an effective cost model, it would be
unlikely that the resources available for security at a given site will bewisely spent or protected.

189October 2008, Beijing

A simple cost model is shown in the paper to illustrate the process.
Although a limited number of parameters have been included todemonstrate the model, inclusion of other relevant factors can be done
without violating the basic concept.
1. INTRODUCTION
The 911 event has seen many governments and businesses take a risk
management approach to protect their operations, businesses, image, assets
and personnel against the potential man-made hazards, particularly
improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs) andpersonnel-borne IEDs (PBIEDs) are of particular concern.
Initially the process employed to address these risks was tentative andinconsistent, but with increasing experience and sharing of knowledge,
including publishing of homeland security guidelines, stakeholders havebecome more confident.
With security and protective design solutions being added to agendas
of many corporations, businesses have endeavored to establish a systematic
approach to identifying the steps and quantifying the resources needed, andto defining the outcomes desired and estimating the likelihood of achieving
them.
This paper attempts to advance the process by arguing for a systematic
approach to be used in creating a protective design methodology, and thatsuch a methodology be holistic (i.e., able to address the many relevant
factors, both individually and as a whole), and incorporate an analytic costmodel to determine cost-effectiveness and facilitate decision-making.
Technology solutions for buildings and infrastructure to protect
against man-made IED threats include features like blast and anti-ram walls
and bollards at the perimeter to mitigate blast effects and stop potential
VBIEDs; structural protections like column carbon-fibre wraps and steel
jacketing; and fabric catcher and cable catcher systems for windows andclear protective films and panels for glazing to prevent their debris entering
the building.
These technologies are commonly used where a serious risk has been
established (i.e., where the most protection value can be obtained). The
magnitude of risk is commonly recognized as a function of the type of threat,and its probability and consequence. Evaluating the risks related to manmade threats is further complicated (i.e., in contrast to natural or accidental
hazards) by the inability to use past events to reliably predict future ones.
For a holistic methodology, a wide range of measures would need tobe evaluated to obtain a final group of them, which achieves an optimal
result. To be able to do this, a cost needs to be given to each mitigation orprotection measure and to the losses that might transpire without these190

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measures (e.g., cost of repairing broken windows, lost time), so that tradeoff
studies can be perform for the purposes of achieving an optimal outcome.
This paper presents an example involving the provision of protection
against an IED to illustration the protective design methodology andanalytical cost model described.
2. ELEMENTS OF THE ANALYTICAL COST MODEL
2.1 Overall Framework – the Protective Design Methodology
The protective design methodology envisioned herein offers a panoplyof features, including aspects which may require expertise outside ofprotective design. Figures 1 and 2 depicts some of these features influencing
the protection needed and provided for a facility. In the holistic
methodology, other factors including policing and national law enforcement
effectiveness are considered in relation to the protection for one’s own
facility.
There are roughly four stages to protective engineering services,which are described in Figure 3. The first state is the risk analysis, which isthe focal point of this paper. Other stages include design, implementation,and research and development.

Figure1: Illustration of the holistic nature of protection design of theengineering (red) and policing/planning (blue) aspects of providing
protective technologies; this figure implies that a close working
relationship between planning, policing, and engineering aspects ofprotective design is needed.

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Figure 2: Depiction of the three key aspects of protective design
and the need to seamlessly integrate the different disciplines
involved in planning, policing, and engineering, to ensure nogaps and maximum effectiveness of the protection provided.

Figure 3: Protection engineering services may be divided into four stages;
all are important to achieve secure facilities.

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2.2 Determining Greatest Protection Value through Risk Assessment
Risk is commonly defined as a function of probability andconsequences, (i.e. a high risk is when the threat is likely and its
consequences severe). Hence for protective design to be relevant, the risk
assessment must be good so that resources are committed to provide
protective design to a credible risk. The next two tables show the process ofidentifying threats, aggressors’ tactics, assessing likelihood andconsequences.
Table 1: Malevolent threats representative of security concerns pertaining
to terrorists, vandals, disgruntled employees, criminals, and saboteurs.
Threat Class
Type
WMD

Physicalsecurity

Typical Threat

Description

Mechanism

Likelihood

Consequences

CBRN

Very lowHigh to very highChemical (C), biological(B), radiation(N), and nuclear(N) threats represent arare but high consequence class of
threats

Low to highBlast effects include those from HE
detonations, vapor cloud explosions(VCE),and other forms of detonations
and rapid deflagrations that may cause
transient airblasts and high gaspressures, water and ground shocks, orhigh velocity fragments. Typicalthreats in this class include:�Satchelcharge�
Vehiclebomb
� Very large, nearby vehicle bomb� Natural gas explosion

Low to medium

Impact threats range from therelatively small scale associated with
FE/BR windows (i.e., forced entry,
ballistic resistant glazing) to rocketpropelled shape charges like RPGs
and armor piercing rounds. Typicalthreats in this class include thosefrom:� Hand tools(e.g., sledge
� hammers) for forced entry
� Small arms fire

Blast effects

Forced entry(FE), ballistic
impactLow

Very highImpactHigh

Very low to highImpact threats range from low-speed
impacts by automobiles to high-speed
impacts by large aircraft. Most typicalof this class are the impact threats
associated with the design of
perimeter devices intended to prevent
vehicle entry. Typical threats in thisclass
includeimpactsfrom:�
Vehicle�
Barge� Airplane

Shock

Low

Low

Shock loadings (from impact or blast)
can damage equipment and cause
electronic systems to fail.

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October 2008, BeijingElectronic
infrastructure,
information
technology(IT)Disruption,
degradation,
compromise,and loss of
information

Category

Attack scenario

High

Very low to highTable 2: Security assessment methodology.
Criteria Element

AssetsThreats

Step No.
123

45
Level of Protection
Consequence

Determining
Levels6

Damage7

Risk Assessment

8

Remediation

Constraints
Mitigation
Costs

2.3

The electronic network provides anever increasing facility for performing
transactions, operating systems, using
computerresources,
andcommunication that if compromised
can seriously threaten the commerce
and lives of those effected. Because of
the long time menace of the computer
vandal, many steps have been taken toprotectITsystems.
Typicalthreats
include:� Hackers, virus purveyors,
� spammers(i.e., computer vandals)�
Criminals
�Statesponsored�Disgruntled/unscrupulous
employees(perhaps worst case because
of inside knowledge)

9
10
11

Function

Identify and categorize assets
Assess asset value
Identify the aggressors likely to target theasset and assess the likelihood of theirattempting to compromise the asset
Identify the likely tactics and theirassociated severity levels for eachaggressor relative to each asset
Consolidate tactics from all applicableaggressors for each asset into a designbasis threat
Determine the level of protection for eachapplicable tactic for each asset
Damage levels range from negligible,
through various degradation levels, tocatastrophic destruction. Damage levels
are typically computed analytically, often
using various software tools
For a particular site or facility, thepredicted damage levels to components
for the threat scenarios considered andother factors (e.g., whether damage to an
asset has a consequence for other assetsfor example, the loss of a power station
may cause many other facilities to cease
functioning) provide the basis forassessing the risks associated with aparticular class (Table 1) of malevolent
threats.
Identify design constraints pertinent to thedesign of the protective system
Identify mitigation concepts and strategies
and their ROM costs
Identify long and short term costs andcosts related to lost/damaged personnel,
equipment, and functionality.

Analytical Cost Model for Protective Design for IED threat

Stakeholders (primarily owners) typically will want to minimize theirrisks at a minimum cost. They will also want to prioritize their risks so thatthe maximum ones, which correspond to a threat assessed to have highprobability and high consequences (top right quadrant in Figure 4), are theones addressed first.

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Figure 4: Decisions concerning protection design are likely to be driven by
the relationship of threat consequence (i.e., police judgment)-one of theways that the engineering and policing functions combine in the protective
design process.
Once a risk has been identified for action, the risk management
process goes on to see what kind of measures should be taken to achieve
cost-effective results.
2.3.1 Blast Pressure and DistanceTraditionally, standoff has been the number one measure forprotection against bomb blast and is likely to be a big cost driver (Figure 6).
As is well known, the blast pressure decreases inversely proportionately tothe distance from the source of the blast (Figure 5). Blast pressure (andimpulse) rapidly declines with distance. However in many cities, land is at apremium and increased standoff spells ‘sterilised’ land which cannot beeffectively used. One can argue its conversion to a landscaped area is a good
idea, but to enforce this all the time will result in an inflexible and costly
guide to use of the site.
Hence the conventional wisdom is to use some relatively limited
amount of standoff combined with protective measures. What this paper
attempts to answer is how much protection should be afforded by standoff
as compared to the amount of protective measures installed.

Figure 5: Blast pressure vs. standoff.

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2.3.2 Evaluating Standoff Costs
Where increased standoff distance is used as a sole means ofprotection, a distance of 30m is commonly cited. This distance may bereasonable for a rural or suburban sites, where land is less expensive and anincreased standoff is possible, or for a government agency where land isallocated from the state. However in a city or urban context where site plot
sizes are often limited, and for a developer purchasing and developing aproperty, there is a strong desire to limit the amount of standoff as thedeveloper would want to maximize use of the land.

Figure 6: Cost of land used as standoff protection
Land cost in major cities is high, and can vary for different cities andat different points in time. For example, in Singapore land costs can go up to
US$700 per square metre. Costs would obviously be highest in the Central
Business District (CBD) and decline when one moves to the suburbs.
The cost of one metre less standoff (i.e., based on the US$700 per
square metre cost) can be compared with the cost of enhancing theprotective measures needed to achieve the same level of protection as before
the reduction of standoff. This would be approached by considering the costdifferential over a one-metre strip of the façade (including the structural
system), as indicated in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Cost of one metre less standoff can be allocated to protecting
equivalent 1-m strip of façade and structure

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2.3.3 Corresponding Cost of Mitigation and Protective Measures at
Different Standoff
In Figure 5, three standoff scenarios were shown, more could be
drawn up. Corresponding to each is a set of protective measures for which a
cost can be computed.
�Little standoff: blast pressure high, and protective measures could
include:�
Blast shield wall and building façade will have to incorporate blast
shield element.
�Structural protection required�Perimeter protection to enforce standoff�Moderate standoff: moderate blast pressure, protective measures
include:�Protection to wall and window system�Protection to structural element like columns to prevent
progressive collapse�
Perimeter protection�
Adequate standoff: blast pressure low; protective measures
include:�Anti-shatter protection to glazing�Perimeter protection to enforce standoff – likely to be greater as
the site is bigger
The cost of the protective measures corresponding to the standoff
distance can be plotted onto a graph as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Cost of protective measures vs. standoff distance
2.3.4 Minimum Protection Costs
For a specific level of protection, combining the costs into a single
factor (e.g., costs for the land used as standoff protection and for protective
measures), one gets a third curve. Moreover, there is an optimal zone asshown in Figure 9, where the combined cost of land and protective measures
is lowest for the same level of protection.

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Optimal zone

Figure 9: Combined cost (top curve) of land used to obtain standoff
protection and of protective measures, as a function of standoff distance
3. EXTENSION OF THIS MODEL
The analytical cost model has been illustrated with reference to protection
against an IED threat. It can be enlarged to include other threats and otherrelevant factors. For example, other factors might include life-cycle costingwith respect to maintenance.
A client should also apply it in the periodic security review when
protective measures need to be updated to correspond to current threats.
A client should also use a qualified protective design consultant, with
relevant experience, access to specialized blast engineering software andtest validation data, who can capitalize on the protective design
methodology and the analytical cost model when embarking on a physicalsecurity upgrade project.
4. CONCLUSION
The holistic protective design methodology, which embodies a multi-factor
approach, is scalable to include multi-hazards, e.g. other man-made or
natural hazards, as the solution to each hazard individually is likely tooverlap with each. For example some aspects of seismic design overlap withblast design. There is, hence, the opportunity for synergy and wherecontradictions occur, they may be ironed out early so that the final outcome
can achieve the optimum performance expected of the multi-facet andmulti-hazard approach described herein.
This is an ambitious challenge. However where stakeholders are
happy to handle a limited set of factors or hazards, the approach describedin this paper is still applicable and can deliver an optimal and balanced
outcome.
REFERENCES
Betts, Curt P., 2005. Guidance for Security Engineering. ASCE 2005, US
Department of Defense.
Building and Construction Authority, Singapore, January 2005. Enhancing

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Building Security.
Department of Defense, 8 October 2003. UFC 4-010-01, DoD Minimum
Antiterrorism Standards for Buildings.
Department of the Army Headquarters, Washington DC, January 2001.
FM 3-19.30 Physical Security.
FEMA, Dec 2003. FEMA 427 - Primer for Design of Commercial Buildings
to Mitigate Terrorist Attacks.
J. E. Crawford, C.L.Liu., "Minimization of Blasts Effects Damage on
Critical Buildings," Prepared for Global Security Asia 2007
Conference, March 2007, Singapore.
Karagozian & Case website. How to select a blast consultant.
National Security Coordination Centre (Singapore), 2004. The Fight Against
Terror – Singapore’s National Security Strategy.
Standards Australia. HB 167:2006, Security Risk Management.
Standards Australia. AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management.
Crawford, John E., Liu Chunlin, Lan Shengrui. Protective Technology
Services.
LIU Chunlin. CEO, K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd , 19 Jalan Kilang
Barat, Acetech Centre, #04-07, Singapore 159361; Vice President,
Karagozian & Case, 2550 North Hollywood Way, Suite 500, Burbank,
CA 91505-5026; Department of Construction Management, School of
Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 10084
liu.chun.lin@kcpt.com.sg

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

INTRODUCTION TO ENHANCEDARCHITECTURAL PROTECTIVE SYSTEMS
1CHUNLIN LIU1 and DAVID PALERMO2
K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd (KCPT), 159361, Singapore
School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084,
Beijing, P.R., China
2
Sherwin-Williams Company, South Holland, IL 60473, USA
liu.chun.lin@kcpt.com.sg

ABSTRACTAn explosive blast mitigation technology that has become a validated
alternative for architectural elements of structures is the installation of“catcher” systems. These systems “catch” or repel the failure of the in-fillwall, whether masonry, EIFS, windows, doors, or curtain walls, protecting
life and property from ballistic shards or fragments. They can be designed
to be stand-alone in new construction and structural retrofits or used toaugment structural hardening techniques. Cables, fabrics, and thin gauge
sheet steel are examples of catcher systems used in the past. A new andproven category of catcher systems are based on polymeric materials thatcan be used for wall, window, and door upgrades. These products are athoroughly tested blast mitigation concept to protect against real world
threat levels. The blast engineering design capability of K&C Protective
Technologies Pte Ltd (KCPT) together with polymeric material engineeringof Life Shield Engineered Systems, LLC (LSES) a subsidiary of The
Sherwin-Williams Company (SW) creates total engineered systems for evengreater in-use performance.
1. INTRODUCTION
The protection of lives from an explosive event is a responsibility not taken
lightly by any organization or company. The research, development, andtesting of technologies that are used to reduce the loss of life and damage toassets in a blast event have led to the creation and wide spread use of live
blast test protocols, instrumentation and modeling [1-2]. Based on thistesting, the typical protection concepts used are structural hardening or
increasing the standoff against the threat. An explosive blast mitigation
alternative has been to increase the safety of structures by use of “catcher”
systems.
These systems “catch” or repel the failure of the materials of
construction that exist between structural elements such as columns andslabs. This infill area can consist of masonry, EIFS, windows, doors, or
curtain wall construction. All these materials are a source ballistic shards orfragments when impacted by the energy of an explosion. Since this infill
area is architectural in nature, catcher systems can be designed to be stand-201

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaalone in new construction and in retrofits, with attention paid to aesthetics aswell as protection. Cables, fabrics, and thin gauge sheet steel are examples
of catcher systems used in the past.
A new and proven category of catcher systems is based on polymericmaterials that can be used for architectural infill wall upgrades. These
products have been thoroughly tested and validated as a blast mitigation
concept. These are recognized as an Enhanced Protective Film System forwindows, Enhanced Protective Panel System for walls, and underdevelopment, Enhanced Protective Door System. The blast engineering
design capability of K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd (KCPT) together
with polymeric material engineering of Life Shield Engineered Systems,
LLC (LSES) creates total engineered systems for even greater in-use
performance.
2. METHODS TO REDUCE BLAST HAZARDS
Explosive safety first began in manufacturing facilities where energetic
materials could impose an explosive hazard to the workers. As the state of
the world is changing today, terrorist activity has spread these concerns toother areas beyond those of manufacturing and storage blast hazards. This
new requirement for blast mitigation has opened the door for the researchand development of new blast mitigation technologies, allowing the field totransition from traditional mass based systems of steel and concrete
reinforcement or thick glass laminates to more compact, efficient,aesthetically sensitive alternatives.
Structural protection concepts started with the physical hardening of astructure or increasing the stand-off distance against the threat. Laterthrough the experimentation of materials, polymer based elastomers were
found to be an effective architectural hardening alternative for blast
mitigation. Polymeric materials absorb large amounts of energy from blast
events due to their elastomeric material properties. These materials havealso become part of “catcher” systems for the retrofit of architecturalelements. The use of polymeric materials for blast protection is expanding
to address the need for the protection of existing buildings that require a
retrofit to improve its blast resistance. With proper international cooperation,polymeric materials for architectural protection can enhance mitigation
design solutions.
Physically hardening existing structures uses anti-shatter window film,
glass laminates, or concrete and steel reinforced materials throughout astructure. These materials work well in new construction applications and in
retrofits where aesthetics are not an issue. Although physical hardening iseffective and a low cost alternative for blast mitigation technologies, it is not
the correct option for all situations. In structures with smaller rooms, aconcrete retrofit may not be viable due to size constraints. Also, in
commercial, corporate, or historic buildings, physical hardening may not be
an option due to the visually undesirable aesthetics and business disruptionof the retrofit. This need for alternative blast mitigation technologies withsimilar or greater effectiveness, cleaner aesthetics, and less mass created an
opportunity for the use of polymeric materials for structural protection.

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The primary characteristic of the polymeric material is the ability toabsorb a blast event’s energy throughout a polymeric network. This allows
for a large displacement of force that can be seen visually. The elastomer
bends, stretches and flexes as the initial impulse of a blast event comes incontact with the polymer panel. On a molecular level, the polymer chainsrealign throughout the panel while it is stretched allowing the polymer towithstand large pressure loads. These attractive material properties makeelastomeric materials an effective solution for the blast mitigation. The
amount of deflection of course, is a function of blast load and anchor design.
Although the use of polymeric materials for blast mitigation may
sound very specialized, there are a variety of options for this type oftechnology. Polymeric materials can be used in new construction as anintegrated catcher system. This system is built into the wall of a building
while it is erected and is concealed within the structure. However, manybuildings that require blast protection require a retrofit installation. These
structures can also utilize a polymeric catcher system that is installed on theinterior of an existing wall. These retrofits are similar to an integrated
system during new construction but require engineering and contractor
expertise to install the retrofit onto a wall appropriately.
Catcher systems are a unique technology in the blast mitigation field
because they do not attempt to protect from a blast with shear mass. The
technology is used to absorb a blast’s energy rather than block it. This
prevents blast pressure and the outer wall or window fragments of astructure from penetrating into the interior of a building. This is achieved byinstalling a polymeric catcher system on the interior surface and anchoring itto the infrastructure, whether that is the floor and ceiling slabs or thecolumns. In a blast event the outer wall, window, or door will fracture andtake on the form of smaller projectiles moving at a high velocity towards theinterior of a structure. It is this debris that has been demonstrated to cause
the greatest harm to people and property on the interior of the building.
Polymeric catcher systems prevent outer wall and window debris fromentering into the structure by absorbing and deflecting the blast. Theirunique material properties allow the system to deflect and flex under the
initial load of the blast minimizing the load to the anchorage fastener points,
and therefore, into the structure. This is an important property of catcher
systems because if a large amount of energy is observed at the anchorage
points the panel can rip out of its attachment system or the capacity of a load
bearing member in a structure could be compromised.
3. ENHANCED PROTECTIVE FILM SYSTEM
The anchorage system of a polymeric panel to a structure is a significant
aspect of the blast mitigation process. Earlier work on engineered fabricsystems showed a large amount of energy directed at the fasteners thatanchor the polymer to the structure. This energy then adds to accumulated
effect that leads to the initiation of progressive collapse. Attachment
systems must be engineered to find a balance of strength and elasticity
allowing for the polymeric panel to deflect and flex but not tear away fromthe anchor point in the structure. Furthermore, the anchorage system is

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unique to each installation as every building is different. Due to theassortment of options for types of polymeric blast mitigation and the varietyof anchorage options it is important to classify each system with specificperformance parameters in order to define the appropriate and cost effectiveuse.
To implement the use of catcher systems, K&C Protective
Technologies of Singapore collaborated with Life Shield Engineered
Systems of the United States to create an Enhanced Protective Film System(Figure.1-5). This system combines material properties with attachment
design to create a system that can readily withstand realistic explosive blastloads greater than 300psi-msec even close to the 400psi-msec level. It
consists of a clear composite material of good clarity for windows. This
clear composite offers a large blast resistance capacity with anchoring
systems that can be modified based on the size of the threat. These products
are provided under the brand name Life Shield®. The clear panels can be
attached independent of the glazing allowing for enhanced anchoring
designs. Even though the polymeric material has proven to withstand verylarge blast loads anchor design to the threat load now becomes the criticalfactor. It has been shown that flexible attachment systems outperform ones
that are hard mounted as in typical in most blast window attachment
systems.
Sample Enhanced Protective Film System

Cable at the top of
windows will be anchoredto the columns.

Life Shield films appliedvertically.

Cable at the bottom of
windows will be anchoredto the columns.

Figure 1: Sample Enhanced Protective Film System (a)Another enhanced protective feature of the clear panels is that they
can be utilized in window constructions of many different types. (Figure. 2)

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With such a variety of designs, architectural aesthetics are easily
incorporated.

KCPT

Figure 2: Sample Enhanced Protective Film System (b)In order to testify the quality of Enhanced Protective Film System,
K&C Protective Technologies and Security Coating Systems teamcooperate to do the site blast test.

Figure 3: Test Site Installation: Notice Clarity of Retrofit

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205

October 2008, Beijing, China(a) Outside view of Test Specimen(b) At the Beginning of Blast( c ) ASF Protected Windows Begins
to Fail(d) EPFS Repelling Entire
Window Mass Including
Shards(f) Entire Window Mass andShards Kept out of Building
Interior
Figure 4: Blast Test for Enhanced Protective Film System(e) Blast Pressure Pulverizes ASF
Glazing

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Exterior View: Four 4ftx6ft windows with 7mil PET Anti-shatter film
applied to the glazing. Retrofitted with Life Shield LSC-150 EPFS. Blastpressure is over 20 times GSA standard for anti-shatter window film
requirements and over 8 times blast window requirements.

(a) 0ms (At the Beginning of Test)(b) 3 ms

( c ) 12ms EPFS engages andbegins to deflect as ASF glazing
fails(d) 14 ms ASF glazing obviously
fails(f) 116ms EASF glazing pulverized
no fragments or shards inside
structure.
Figure 5: Result of Blast Test for Enhanced Protective Film System(e) 31ms ASF glazing rejected by
EPFS

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From the test example shown in the Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5, it
can be seen that the Enhanced Protective Film System can successfully
resist the blast loading which is over 20 times GSA standard and over 8
times blast window requirements.
4. ENHANCED PROTECTIVE PANEL SYSTEM
The system for walls (Figure 6) performs in a very similar fashion as theLife Shield clear composite panels in that they are anchored to theinfrastructure element and catching the load, debris and fragments. Testing
for wall only polymeric solutions has been ongoing for a number of years.

Enhanced Protective Panel

KCPT

Figure 6: Concept drawing for Enhanced Protective Panel System
For protecting the architectural infill element between the slabs andcolumns
However, the vast majority of product development for blast
protection has been centered on stand alone structural or architecturalelements. This has shown to be a disconnect from the reality of current
construction techniques. It is obvious that windows fail first in a blast eventas proven in numerous tests and real world events. Testing the protection of
windows alone as the sole target is valid for low pressure testing criteriasuch as is widely used in the North America. These tests are used to validate
anti-shatter window films and window laminates for the 4psi/28psi-msec
and 10psi/89psi-msec criteria.
The reality is that most exterior architectural elements have window
glazing and wall sections to take into consideration. The collaboration
between KCPT and LSES has created the first ever total protection system.
(Figure 7) These combinations have been thoroughly tested utilizing flexible
anchoring designs. (Figure8)

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ICUS Report 31

Figure 7: Concept drawing for Enhanced Protective Window and Panel
System Combination. For protecting the architectural infill element
between the slabs and columns.

Figure 8: Testing of Enhanced Protective Window and Panel System
Combination For protecting the architectural infill element between theslabs and columns

Introduction to Enhanced Architectural Protective Systems

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 9: Shield Wall Panels installed 33 feet from detonation on ungrouted
masonry infill wall

Figure 10: Pressure wave and fireball travel towards infill wall

Figure 11: Life Shield Wall Panels
intact on the left side, control fails
catastrophically on right side

Figure 12: Series of Life Shield Wall
Panel tests against 4 kilograms of
TNT at 50, 70, and 120 centimetersin fragmentation casing

Figure 13: Interior side of structure
pre-detonation.

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ICUS Report 31

Figure 14: Post detonation pictures of
threat side and building interior side.
No debris on interior side and noevidence of anchor loading

Figure 15: Post-detonation
picture of threat side andstructure interior side. No
evidence of anchor loading.

Figure 16: Post-detonation picture of threat side and structure interior side.
Slight anchor loading due to placement of charge 50cm off the corner
5. ENHANCED PROTECTIVE DOOR SYSTEM
To complete the total systems approach for protecting all architecturalelements KCPT has designed a door concept. The focus is on reducing theweight of the door while integrating it into the Life Shield wall protection
retrofit. (Figure 17) Included in the design is ballistic protection which has
currently exceeded NIJ IIIA levels.

Introduction to Enhanced Architectural Protective Systems

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 17: Testing of Enhanced Protective Panel and Door System
Combination
6. CONCLUSION
The creation and testing of materials other than concrete, steel, anti-shatter
window film, and laminated glass for blast mitigation has been completed,documented, and live blast test proven. Coupling material design withengineering analysis to create a total systems protective film solution forwall and windows is a natural evolution to broaden the use of thistechnology around the world. Catcher systems cannot be any stronger than
the structure itself. The advantage of the catcher system is the ability to be
designed into the strongest attributes of the structure, be it the slabs or thecolumns. Additionally, the use of flexible anchorage systems such as exist
in the total systems protective film solution allow the mitigation system toperform at higher blast loads by managing the deflection.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge the K&C Protective Technologies
and Life Shield Engineered Systems team in their work pertaining to theresearch, design, manufacturing, and installation of preformed polymericpanels used for blast protection.

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REFERENCES
D. Bogosian, H. Der Avanessian. To film or not to Film: Effects of AntiShatter Film on Blunt Trauma Lethality from Tempered Glass.
Proceedings of the 17th International Symposium on the Military
Aspects of Blast and Shock[C], Jun2 2002, Las Vegas, Nevada
D. Bogosian, H. Der Avanessian, et al. Assessment of Human Injury Data
from Cubicle Experiments[R]. Karagozian & Case and Biodynamics
Engineering, Inc., TR-03-9, July 2003
LIU Chunlin. CEO, K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd , 19 Jalan Kilang
Barat, Acetech Centre, #04-07, Singapore 159361; Vice President,
Karagozian & Case, 2550 North Hollywood Way, Suite 500, Burbank,
CA 91505-5026; Department of Construction Management, School of
Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 10084
liu.chun.lin@kcpt.com.sg

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IDENTIFICATION OF POLLUTANTSOURCES IN URBAN AREA USING
INVERSE CFD MODELING
HONG HUANG1, SHINSUKE KATO2 and MAHMOUD BADY3
1
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japanhhong@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japankato@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
3
Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japanmbady@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThe present research introduces a technique to determine pollution
source locations in urban areas -when the pollutant concentration field isknown- through the use of reversed time marching method (RTMM). The
method depends primarily on the solution of the scalar transport equation
with time integration in the negative direction. This leads to reversing thevelocity field and also the diffusion term. The study demonstrates how to use
the inverse CFD model with the reversed time marching method to identify
pollution sources in urban areas. An example was given in order to examine
the accuracy of RTMM in identifying pollutant sources in urban areas, inwhich the wind flow around a single building was investigated for two
different source locations. Steady state numerical simulations were carriedout at first in order to estimate the wind flow fields. With the steady-state
airflow patterns, direct CFD modeling (forward-time simulation) was used
to calculate pollutant concentration distributions for step-function sources.
In the last stage, the scalar transport equation was solved again but with thereversed flow field and the negative diffusion term. By using peakconcentration, one could identify the pollution source location. Results ofthe study demonstrated that the RTMM can identify pollution sources
locations in urban areas with a satisfied accuracy.
1. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays, reverse modeling seems to be one of the promising topics to beconsidered in the urban safety research. The importance of reverse modelingarises from the increased levels of pollution sources due to continuing
expansion of industries coupled with population growth, especially in large
cities. In addition, the terrorist attacks are becoming frequent and deadlier
such as sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway 1995, which resulted in 12 deadand 6000 injured (Yokoyama, 2007; Okumura, et al., 1996]. Moreover, theability to predict pollution source locations, source strength, and releasetime is required to get complete image about the air quality conditions
within release domain. Accordingly, the identification of pollution (or215October 2008, Beijing, China

release) source location immediately after release became an urgent matterto be investigated in order to ensure people safety. Reverse modeling
represents an efficient and promising tool in this matter.
In recent years, some researchers have studied reverse modelingtechniques in identifying pollution sources locations either in air or ingroundwater. Chen at al. (Zhang and Chen, 2007) studied the contaminantsource identification in a 2-D aircraft cabin and in a 3-D office by applying
inverse CFD modeling. They used the quasi-reversibility equation instead of
the contaminant transport equation since it is numerically stable when timeis reversed. According to the study results, they concluded that the inverse
CFD model could identify the contaminant source locations but not very
accurate contaminant strength because of the dispersive property of thequasi-reversibility equation. Gomez-Gesteira et al. (Gomez-Gesteira, et al.,1999) used the particle tracking method to investigate contaminantdispersion process in two different sites located along the North West coastof Spain under summer conditions. Bagtzoglou et al. (Bagtzoglou, et al,1992) applied the particle tracking method to identify the sources ofcontamination in the groundwater systems by reversing the velocity field
and leaving the diffusion/dispersion unchanged. Wilson et al. (Wilson, et al,1994) studied the particle tracking method to determine groundwaterpollution sources through the solution of stochastic differential equations
backwards in time for 1-D and 2-D. Their method results in time (or space)dependent probability maps for the water in the study well, which theycalled it: travel time probability map and location probability map.
It is clear from the previous studies that the diffusion term represents a
problem when dealing with the reversed scalar equation due to theinstability caused by such term. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is todevelop and also to verify the method for backward problems that accounts
for the diffusion as well as the convection through the use of reversed timemarching method (RTMM). The method depends primarily on the solutionof the scalar transport equation with time integration in the negative
direction. This leads to reversing the velocity field and also the diffusion
term. The method is applied to two simple examples of a flow in an open
boundary layer and of a flow around a single building. Direct CFD
simulations were carried out at first to calculate both flow and concentration
fields. The reversed time marching method is then conducted to find thepollution source location.
2. REVERSED TIME MARCHING METHOD
Pollutant concentrations are predicted based on the convection-diffusion
equation including meteorological data, transport diffusion, and the relevant
emissions. It can be written as:��� � � �ui� � � � K �� � S���where t � �
(1)
�
�
�t
�xi
�xi �� � �xi �� �
where � denotes the concentration (kg/kg), t is the time (s), ui is the
Cartesian components of the velocity (m/s), xi is the Cartesian coordinates

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ICUS Report 31(m), � is the air density (kg/m3), S is the pollutant source strength(kg/m3/s), and K is the diffusivity coefficient for the concentration (kg/m/s).
By reversing time direction in Equation (1), the sign of the unsteadyterms becomes negative. Thus, the above equation with the absence of thesource becomes:��� � ��ui� � � � K �� ���where t � �
(2)
�
�
�
�t
�xi
�xi �� � �xi ��
Rearranging this equation, then:��� � ���� u i �� �
� � K �� ��� where
(3)
�
��
t��
�t
�x i
�x i �� � �x i ��
It is obvious from Equation (3), that the reversed time marching
method is very easy to be implemented and can be used to evaluate
pollution sources. However, there are two important problems arising fromthis equation. The first is that; neglecting the diffusion can be a problem
when the convection is weak. The second problem is that, if the transport
equation is solved (as shown in Equation (3)); the solution is numericallyunstable due to the negative sign of the diffusion term. In order to make thegoverning equation solvable with numerical stability, this study proposes
the use of a filter to deal with negative concentration gradients in order toavoid unrealistic solutions. Indeed, the presence of such filter affects thesolution accuracy and decreases the method effectiveness in identifying theexact locations of pollution sources. However, the effect of adding a filter tothe reversed scalar equation (i.e. Equation (3)) will be evaluated in thepresent paper according to the obtained results.
In order to determine the source location within a domain through theuse of inverse modeling, concentration distributions are needed. In the daily
life, the concentrations should come from data measured by concentration
sensors. Since this paper is to explain the method of inverse modeling, a
direct CFD simulation was conducted at first to solve the flow field and thenthe calculated flow field is used to estimate the concentration field, which isused as initial condition when carrying out the inverse modeling.
3. EXAMPLE OF APPLYING THE RTMM IN IDENTIFYINGSOURCES LOCATIONS
3.1 Wind flow around a single building
The example for identifying pollution source location in urban areasusing RTMM is shown in Fig. 1, in which wind flows around a single
building. The building dimensions are 10 (x) � 10 (y) � 30 (z) m and thedimensions of the computational domain are 300 (x) � 110 (y) � 70 (z) mwith a mesh size of 444,800 cells.

Identification of Pollutant Sources in Urban Area Using Inverse CFD Modeling217

October 2008, Beijing, China

ApproachingwindzLocation (II)Location (I)
x

2.5 m

10 m

2.5 m

Figure 1: Geometry of flow around a block and pollution source
locations (I) and (II)Two different locations for the source were considered in order toexamine the effect of pollutant source location on the prediction accuracy of
the RTMM: location (I) which is 2.5 m upwind the building and location(II) which is 2.5 m downwind the building. In both cases, the source
strength was set to 0.01 kg/m3/s and its dimensions were 0.5 m�0.5 m�
0.6 m.
3.2 Numerical simulation
Numerical simulations were carried out through the CFD code StarCD, based on a finite-volume discretization method. During forward
simulation, steady state analysis was adopted for the flow field andMonotone Advection and Reconstruction Scheme (MARS) (STAR-CD,
2004) was applied to the spatial difference. The standard k-� model wasused to simulate the turbulence effects and the pressure / velocity linkage issolved via the SIMPLE algorithm.
At the inflow boundary, a constant flux layer was assumed for the
turbulent energy k, and turbulent intensity was assumed to be 10 % of the
inflow wind velocity at a representative height (Z0) of 74.6 m. A 1/4 inflow
wind profile is used. Free slip condition was applied on the top and thesides’ boundaries. The generalized logarithmic law with the parameter E = 9
was applied to building walls and ground surface as smooth walls.
Once the flow field is solved, it is considered as steady flow field andthen the concentration fields in both direct and reverse simulations are
solved in time. The wind flow distribution together with the pollutant
concentrations of the direct simulation are used as initial conditions for thereverse simulation. A time step of 0.1 s was used with the implicit scheme.
Source strength (kg/m3/s)

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00
0

20

40

60

80

100

Time (s)Figure 2: Pollutant source strength as a function in time218

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ICUS Report 31

In direct simulation (forward-time simulation), a pollutant source of strength0.01 kg/m3/s was released in the period from t = 0 to t = 30 s. Then, thesolution of the transport equation is continued with the absence of thesource until t = 200 s. Fig. 2 shows the release source as a function in time.
In reverse simulation, the flow field calculated by direct simulation isreversed at first and the source term is set to zero. Then the transport
equation is solved from the moment of t = 200 s in reverse time direction.
The time at which the reversed simulation is stopped is not known in reality.
In other words; staring from the moment of solving the transport equation in
the reverse time direction, the time t = 0 at which the calculations has to be
stopped is not known in advance. Since the present examples are introduced
just to explain the idea of reverse simulation using RTMM, the end time is
known.
4. RESULTS AND DISSCUSTIONS
Figure 3 shows the computed airflow pattern around a single building understeady state. The subplot (a) shows the flow field calculated by the direct
simulation and the subplot (b) shows the reversed flow field which was used
to carry out the reverse simulation. In subplot (a), a symmetrical flow field
is shown around the building, where two identical circulation regions areformed around the building.
It is expected that the effectiveness of RTMM in identifying thepollution source location is affected with the source location. So, as
mentioned before, two locations for the pollutant source were examined
here; location (I) and location (II). The first location is upwind the building
and the second location is in the wake region downwind the building.
4.1 Source location (I)The concentration fields around the building obtained for the source
location (I) are shown in Fig. 4. In subplot (a), at t = 1 s, the plume starts to
(a)

(b)

Figure 3: Wind flow field around a building; (a) direct flow, (b)Identification of Pollutant Sources in Urban Area Using Inverse CFD Modeling219

October 2008, Beijing, China

diffuse where the concentration field touches the upwind face of thebuilding. The plume is then travels with the wind downwind the building.
The pollutant is continued to be released until the moment t = 30 s. At thistime, the emission source was stopped and the scalar transport equation was
solved in time using direct simulation without the source. At t = 200 s, two
identical regions were formed far from the building. The conditions at suchtime were used as the initial conditions for the inverse modeling. Fig. 4 (c)shows the concentration field obtained by the inverse modeling. In such
figure, the concentration field area is wider than that of the direct simulation.
By detecting the location of maximum pollutant concentration over all
locations, the source location is clearly determined. It is located downwind
the building along the domain centerline. However, the maximum
concentration occupies a wide area in front of the block. This shows that theestimation of the source location will not be 100 % accurate.
(a) t = 1 s
kg/kg × 104
0.200
0.185
0.171
0.157
0.142
0.128
0.114
0.100
0.085
0.071
0.057
0.042
0.028
0.014
0.000

(c) t = 1 s

kg/kg × 105
0.500
0.464
0.428
0.392
0.357
0.321
0.285
0.250
0.214
0.176
0.142
0.107
0.071
0.035
0.000

Figure 4: Concentration fields when the source is in location (I), (a) at t
= 1 s obtained by direct simulation, (b) at t = 200 s obtained by direct
simulation, (c) at t = 1 s obtained by reverse simulation field
Compared with the peak concentration obtained with the direct CFD
modeling as shown in Fig. 4(b), the source strength identified by the inverse
CFD modeling of Fig. 4(c) is more dispersive. The reason is that thetransport equation is not exactly the same as the governing transport
equation for the pollution concentration due to the presence of a filter.
Indeed, the filtration process affects the accuracy of the RTMM and thisappears clearly in the wide area of high concentrations, which give a wide
range of possibilities for the pollution source location. This is not the ideal
distribution when the determination of gas release position is needed.

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4.2 Source location (II)(a) t = 1 s(b) t = 200 s(c) t = 1 s

kg/kg × 104
0.500
0.464
0.426
0.392
0.357
0.321
0.285
0.250
0.214
0.178
0.142
0.107
0.071
0.035
0.000

kg/kg × 105
0.900
0.835
0.771
0.707
0.642
0.578
0.514
0.450
0.385
0.321
0.257
0.192
0.128
0.064
0.000

Figure 5: Concentration fields when the source is in location (II), (a)at t = 1 s obtained by direct simulation, (b) at t = 200 s obtained bydirect simulation, (c) at t = 1 s obtained by reverse simulation.
Figure 5 shows the concentration fields around the building when thepollutant source is in location (II). The subplot (a) shows the source location
which is 2.5 m downwind the building rear surface. Similar to the case of
location (I), the pollutant is emitted in the period from t = 0 to t = 30 s andthen the scalar transport equation was solved with the absence of the source
term until the moment t = 200 s. In subplot (b), two high concentration
regions are formed behind the building. The diffusion of the pollutant insuch case is limited to a narrow region compared with the case of location(I).
Figure 5(c) shows the concentration field obtained using inverse
modeling. The figure shows that the peak concentration region occupies
narrow region compared with the case of location (I). This can be attributed
to the presence of the source in the wake region where low wind velocity
exists and the convection is weak. In such case, the location of pollution
source estimated by the reverse simulation is not clear. In Fig. 5(c), there are
two peak concentration regions near the edges of the block. So, theidentification of the source location in such case is not easy.

Identification of Pollutant Sources in Urban Area Using Inverse CFD Modeling221

October 2008, Beijing, China

5. CONCLUSIONSThe present research introduces a technique to determine pollution source
locations in urban areas -when the pollutant concentration field is knownthrough the use of reversed time marching method (RTMM). The method
depends primarily on the solution of the transport equation of thecontaminant with time integration in the negative direction. In order toexamine the accuracy of RTMM in identifying pollution sources in urban
areas, an example was given in which the wind flow around a single
building was investigated for two different source locations. The study
results demonstrated that the RTMM can be applied to identify pollution
source locations in urban areas. However, the prediction accuracy decreases
in case of weak convection.
REFERENCES
Bagtzoglou, A. C., Dougherty, D. E. and Tompson, A. F. B., 1992.
Application of particle methods to reliable identification ofgroundwater pollution sources. Water Resources Management, 6,
15–23.
Gomez-Gesteira, M., Montero, P., et al., 1999, A two-dimensional particle
tracking model for pollution dispersion in A Coruna and Vigo Rias
(NW Spain), Oceanologica Acta, 22, 167-177.
Okumura, T., Takasu, N., et al., 1996. Report on 640 victims of the Tokyo
subway sarin attack. Ann Emerg Med, 28, 129–135.
STAR-CD, Methodology, Version 3.22, 2004. Computational Dynamics
Limited.
Wilson, J. L. and Liu, J., 1994. Backward tracking to find the source ofpollution. Water Management and Risk Remediation, 1, 181-199.
Yokoyama, K., 2007. Our recent experiences with sarin poisoning cases inJapan and pesticide users with references to some selected chemicals,
Neurotoxicology, 28. 364-373.
Zhang, T. and Chen Q., 2007. Identification of contaminant sources in
enclosed environments by inverse CFD modeling, Indoor Air, 17,
167-177.

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RESEARCH AND TESTING OF
PROTECTIVE GARMENTS AND
EQUIPMENT USING A
THERMAL MANIKIN SYSTEMJIN PAN and XIAOYU TANGTEST International Group, China
cicitang@test-tech.com.cn
ABSTRACT
Thermal manikins are a valuable and accurate research tool forevaluating the safety of personal protective garments and equipment, while
also providing data useful for improving their comfort and performance.
Over the long history of thermal manikin development, including thermal
manikins with specialized functions, users can now safely research and test
special protective garments and equipments. Thermal manikins placed into
various disaster environments can help simulate human metabolic response
in a disaster. Through the testing of personal protective garments andequipments, we can analyze and predict more accurately their true level ofprotection in a disaster situation.
Key Words: protective garments and equipments, thermal, manikin, comfort
1. INTRODUCTION
To better prepare for disasters, such as the recent "Wenchuan Earthquake",
emergency teams including army, police and firemen must have the tools tocontinue their rescue work, regardless of the situation. We need to improvethe efficiency of automotive and airplane air conditioning units, protect
rescue workers from hazardous environments with protective garments andequipments, and keep them in top form at all times. To ensure top
performance, rescue workers need to be safe and comfortable – any time,
any place. Using thermal manikin systems as precision instruments formeasuring and evaluating the thermal comfort of protective garments andequipments in hazardous environments can help improve their safety,
comfort, and performance.
2. MANIKIN HISTORY
The original application for thermal manikin testing was an American Army
garments test. Prior to 1941, there was no method available to accurately
assess thermal heat transfer through protective clothing ensembles. The
development of the clo unit in 1941 by Gagge, Burton, and Bazett was animportant advancement in clothing science. This concept of insulation was

223

October 2008, Beijing, China

the first to establish a relationship between man, his clothing and theenvironment.
2.1

Early Thermal Manikin History

The building of the first working thermal manikin for the U.S. militaryis attributed to Dr. Harwood Belding in 1941. During the World War II, they
investigated reports of inadequacies in protective clothing capabilities fromvarious battlefronts, and suggested possible improvement. In 1945, Belding
and his thermal manikin joined the U.S. Army Quartermaster General's new
Climatic Research Laboratory. In September 1945, along with detailed datafrom an anthropometric study of nearly 3000 Army Air Force cadets they
constructed another electroplated copper shell manikin based on the average
physical dimensions of a young U.S. military recruit. Gagge and his
associates used this new manikin to completely redesign most Army Air
Force aviators clothing away from the use of natural materials to newly
developed artificial materials, and worked on improving environmental
protection for U.S. military personnel.
2.2

Thermal Manikin Research: 1950's

By the early 1950's, clothing researchers had successfully used
thermal manikins to measure the resistance to sensible, dry, heat transfer ofa wide range of protective garments from all the military services. In theprocess, military footwear, handwear, sleeping bags, and combat clothing
ensembles were further improved for comfort, durability, and environmental
protection.
Thermal manikin research during this decade also revealed that thehighly curved surfaces of the human body created a complex and dynamic
microclimate between the clothing and skin surface. Unlike the heat transfer
characteristics of textiles established from earlier guarded ring flat plate
work, thermal manikins showed that actual clothing, when draped over thehuman figure, can have localized variations in thermal conductivity as wellas in the ensemble's convective and radioactive properties.
2.3

Thermal Manikin Research: 1960's

In 1961, most military thermal manikin work was centered at the new
U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine (also known as"USARIEM"). One area of new research was focused on the resistance byprotective clothing to the transport of water vapor and its impact on soldierperformance. This moisture permeability index (im) characterized thepermeability of garments materials to the transfer of water vapor.
"Sweating" manikins outfitted with tight fitting cotton skins that could besaturated with water to simulate a sweat wetted skin surface, could now
measure the maximum evaporative heat transfer allowed to an individual
wearing a given protective ensemble.

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2.4

Thermal Manikin Research: 1970's

Comparisons made between thermal manikin data and controlledhuman volunteer studies indicated that the movement of air within and
immediately adjacent to a multilayered clothing system could have adramatic impact on the evaporative cooling potential of the protective
ensemble. Givoni and Goldman used thermal and water vapor resistancesfrom thermal manikins along with the derived pumping coefficient todevelop a series of equations that predicted rectal temperature when wearing
military clothing in a range of cool to very hot environments. Thermal
manikin data are used to assess the impact of the level of dehydration andeffects of acclimatization on wearers of protective garments.
2.5

Thermal Manikin Research: 1980's To Present

In the early 1980's, the U.S. Army began a complete redesign of major
clothing systems for air, ground, and vehicle based personnel utilizing avariety of novel technologies and materials. On an increasing basis, themilitary has evaluated and then adopted numerous commercial textile
developments (i.e., Gore-Tex, Thinsulate, Primaloft) for use in these newprotective garments, footwear, handwear, and sleeping systems. Many
textile manufacturers used manikins for novel developments and test results.
Thermal manikin could simulate the bodily movements involved in walking
and running. The manikin is housed in a climatic chamber with precise
control over the air velocity directed at the manikin.
3. MODERN MANIKINS
Thermal manikins have evolved in U.S. as a direct result of the need toprovide better personal protective garment and equipment in an increasing
variety of environmental zones of operation. Thermal manikin data has been
instrumental in improving both the comfort and functional performance of amultitude of protective garment and equipment as well as providing input todevelop practical human performance predictive models.
As the development of modern technology moves forward, manikin
manufactures have developed new carbon-epoxy shells and porous metal
sweating skin surfaces to replace heavy copper or aluminum forms, andhave greatly improved manikin responsiveness and accuracy. For example,
he carbon-epoxy “NEWTON” thermal manikin and advanced porous metalskinned “ADAM” thermal manikin apply for different requirements.
3.1 Thermal Manikin “NEWTON”
The "Newton" thermal manikin consists of a carbon-epoxy shell withinternal heater elements, temperature sensors, and an optional integrated
fluid supply system to simulate metabolic heat and perspiration levels. A
dedicated Dell Pentium computer running ThermDAC software controls the
manikin temperature and internal systems while automatically logging data.

Research and Testing of Protective Garments and Equipment using a Thermal Manikin System

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Manikin size: 50th percentile Western or Asian Male, Weight ~ 30 kg
Standard zones: 20, 26, or 34 independently controlled thermal regions
The “NEWTON” manikin is articulated at the shoulders, elbows, hips,
knees and ankles (Table 1).
Table 1: Ranges of motion for the joints

Jointshoulderselbowships
knees
anklesRotary motion- 45 to 180 degrees
0 to 90 degrees- 30 to 90 degrees
0 to 90 degrees+/- 30 degrees

Lateral motion
none+/- 8 degrees
none+/- 8 degrees+/- 8 degrees

3.1.1 Heating Zones
1

2

13

14

3

5

15
20

17

7

(top
thigh)

of
12

33

19

22

25

27

29

31

6

18

10

9
23
11

(top
thigh)

4

16

8

24

21

28

26

30

32

of

34

Figure 1: Zone segmentation and identification for 34-zone manikin

Figure 2:20 Zone manikin

226

Figure 2:26 Zone manikin

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ICUS Report 31

3.1.2 Sweating Skin Layer
The sweating skin system provides volumetric flowrate control bymanikin region. It is based on a matrix of pores over the active surface ofthe manikin with a removable fabric outer shell to distribute water over the
manikin surface. Each zone controller within the manikin modulates thefluid volume passing through its on-board flow control valve. The fabricskin layer consists of a tightly fitting, elastic suit, including hands, feet, andhood. Using the ThermDAC software interface, each manikin zone can becontrolled to a specific flowrate setpoint.
3.1.3 Control modes
Four control modes are available:� Temperature control mode (= skin temperature fixed / heat flux
variable): measurement is the heating power required formaintaining skin temperature at a fixed setpoint.
� Heat flux mode (= heat flux constant / skin temperature variable):the heating power is set a fixed value, representative of themetabolic production of the human being (for instance 70 W/m2).
The resulting skin temperature of the manikin is measured.
� Comfort mode: this mode follows the Madsen comfort model, withpower output dynamically adjusted to the local temperature to
reproduce – to a certain extent – real human skin temperature(lower on segments exposed to cold). User-adjustable gains allow
use of alternative numerical models.
� Programmable control mode: In this operating method, themanikin setpoints are obtained from a time-sequential text file.
This provides the ability to simulate different activity levels or
work cycles on a precise time schedule.
3.1.4 Walking and Motion Stand (Option)
This roll-around walking stand replicates the walking motions
required for ENV342 garment testing, while also supporting the manikin
and making it easy to move and dress by a single technician.
� Stand includes motor and actuators for generating the walking
motion� Speed variable from 0 to 55 double steps per minute (~ 70
meters/min)
3.2

Thermal Manikin “ADAM”

The advanced 126-zone "ADAM" thermal manikin with porous metal
sweating skin is used for the detailed evaluation of transient environmental
conditions. The manikin consists of a carbon-epoxy skeleton and individual
porous metal skin segments that contain heater elements, temperature
sensors, and fluid distribution system. The manikin mimics human
responses such as sweating and breathing with incredible accuracy, and its
high spatial resolution and rapid response to environmental changes allow it
to respond realistically to transient, non-uniform inputs. A dedicated Dell

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Pentium computer running ThermDAC software controls the manikin
temperature and all internal systems while automatically logging data.
3.2.1 “ADAM” Specifications
Manikin size: 50th percentile Male: Height 175cm, Weight ~ 60 kg
Standard zones: 126 independently controlled thermal regions
3.2.2 Heating zones

Figure 4: Zone segmentation and identification for 126 zone manikin
3.2.3 ADAM Sweating Skin System
ADAM’s sweating system is integrated into the manikin skin surface,
and is based on a computer controlled fluid delivery system that provides
volumetric flowrate control by manikin region. Fluid supply for this systemutilizes a single constant pressure pump external to the manikin. This isconnected through a quick-disconnect coupling to the manikin’s internal
fluid distribution tubing. Each zone controller within the manikin modulates
the fluid volume passing through its on-board flow control valve. This
metered volume is distributed to the manikin’s porous metal skin layer,
where it spreads evenly within the zones inner layers and then migrates tothe skin surface for evaporation. Using the ThermDAC software interface,each manikin zone can be controlled to a specific flowrate setpoint.
3.2.4 ADAM Options“ADAM” thermal manikin can be manufactured with internal wirelesstransmitter & receiver for communication with computer, heated humidifier
for warm moist breathin the nose and mouth, internal or external
breathing pump for inflow/outflow, and internal battery charging and power

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management controller with 36 Volt battery pack for at least two hours ofmanikin use.
4.

MANIKIN APPLICATIONSAs thermal manikin research studies become more advanced, manufacturers
have developed manikin technologies for different test environments: flame
environments, submerged environments, and contaminated environments.
4.1

Flame Test Thermal Manikin

The advanced flame test manikin with integrated heat sensors andcomputational burn model is designed to meet the ASTM F1930 testing
standard, and consists of a high-temperature carbon-epoxy shell with 115
integrated heat sensors (excluding hands and feet), and a dedicated Dell
Pentium computer running “Burn Model” software to automatically log
sensor data and, based on test results, automatically calculate the degree andtotal area of predicted burn injury. The system allows the operator tocharacterize the performance of single layer garments or protective clothing
ensembles in a simulated flash fire environment having controlled heat flux,
flame distribution, and duration. An optional burn chamber can also be
added to obtain a comprehensive flame testing solution.
4.1.1

Manikin Sensors
115 evenly distributed and integrated heat sensors can measure theincident heat flux over a range from 0.0 to 4.0 cal/cm2·s (167 kW/m2), witheach sensor output value automatically polled once every 0.5 seconds during
the test period. Minimum response time: � 0.1 second.
4.1.2

Manikin Software“Burn Model” software automatically receives and data logs theoutput of all sensors, calculates the heat flux, predicts the burn injury levelat each sensor, and the total predicted burn injury area as a result of thethermal exposure. The time predicted to cause second-degree andthird-degree burn injury for each sensor is also calculated. For burn injury
assessment, the sum of the areas represented by sensors that received
sufficient heat to result in a calculated second-degree burn shall be thesecond-degree percentage burn area assessment. The sum of the area
represented by the sensors that received sufficient heat to result in a
calculated third-degree burn shall be the third-degree percentage burn area
assessment. The sum of these two areas shall be the total percentage burninjury assessment resulting from exposure to the flash fire condition.
4.1.3

Modular Burn Chamber
A fully ventilated, fire-resistant burn enclosure with viewing windows
and access door can be provided to house the manikin and burner apparatus.
The chamber will be sized to meet the F1930 standard’s minimum
dimensions of 2.1 x 2.1 x 2.4 meters, to provide a uniform flame exposureand sufficient space for safe movement around the manikin for dressing

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without accidentally jarring and displacing the burners. A properly sizedforced air exhaust system will permit rapid removal of combustion gas
products and aid in cooling after the data acquisition period. A system of
propane gas piping, pressure regulators, valves, and pressure sensors shallbe provided to safely deliver gaseous fuel to the ignition system andexposure torches. This delivery system shall be sufficient to provide a
uniform heat flux of at least 2.0 cal/cm2·s (84 kW/m2) for an exposure timeof at least 5 seconds.
The burner system shall consist of a safety pilot flame, one ignition
pilot flame for each exposure burner, and sufficient burners to provide therequired range of heat fluxes with flame distribution uniformity to meet therequirements of ASTM F1930. The flame exposure burners will be large,
induced combustion air, industrial style propane burners positioned aroundthe manikin to produce a uniform laboratory simulation of a flash fire. A
minimum of eight burners shall be used and positioned to yield the required
exposure level and uniformity. A system for recording a visual image of the
manikin before, during, and after the flame exposure shall be provided. In
addition, the exposure chamber shall be equipped with approved fire
suppression systems.
4.2

Waterproof Thermal Manikin

The “NEMO” true-weight Waterproof Thermal Manikin consists of asealed aluminum shell with internal heater elements, temperature sensors,
and an (optional) integrated fluid supply system to simulate metabolic heatand perspiration levels. Its aluminum body form with waterproof joints and
21 independently controlled thermal zones can be fully submerged up to 3
meters and support maximum heat flux rates to 1100 W/m2.
4.3

Breathing Thermal Manikin

The Breathing Thermal Manikin is used to study how and at what ratecontamination particles moving in an airflow might enter the human bodyby aspiration during breathing. The manikin is capable of regulated
breathing through the mouth and/or nose. A custom airflow manifold withaerosol collection filter was designed and mounted inside the manikin head,
and an external breathing machine was developed to generate the necessary
respiration features.
The manikin features a split mouth and split nose, with a special
airflow manifold that connected to an external breathing system via four
hoses - two for inhalation and two for exhalation. This manifold was
designed to allow for breathing through the nose or mouth in any of thefollowing combinations:- Mouth inhalation/Mouth exhalation (top/bottom split)- Nose inhalation/Nose exhalation (left/right split)- Mouth inhalation/Nose exhalation- Nose inhalation/Mouth exhalation
The external breathing system consists of pneumatic cylinders that arecycled in and out by a servo linear actuator to replicate the cycle, frequency,
and volume of human breathing. Three user-adjustable variables allow

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control of tidal volume, breathing rate, and Inhale: Exhale (I: E) ratio. The
ThermDAC control system automatically monitors user-set inputs andadjusts the motion of the air cylinders accordingly. The tidal volume
depends on the distance that the pistons are moved in the cylinder, and thebreathing rate is determined by the speed that the piston moves. The piston
speed can be different on the inhale and exhale cycles giving an I:E ratio
matching the user input.
4.4

Specialty Thermal Manikin

Evaluating the thermal comfort and moisture management of
automobile seating, gloves, footwear, or any other product requiring ananatomical testing form requires a specialty thermal manikin: Thermal Hand
System, Thermal Foot System, ST-2 Comfort Test System, Seat Test
Automotive Manikin, and other customized specialty systems.
Independently controlled thermal regions with temperature sensors, porous
metal sweating sections, and fluid supply simulate metabolic heating andperspiration levels with high repeatability. User-friendly ThermDAC
software controls fluid systems and temperature while logging data.
5.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Thermal Manikin Systems together with a disaster simulation environment
chamber are a superior research and test appliance for evaluating the safety
and comfort of various protective garments. Many famous universities andresearch labs in the world are using thermal manikins to research and test
protective garments and disaster environments, e.g. Tsinghua University has
a 20 zone thermal sweating manikin with breathing and walking systems,
which includes the most comprehensive functions of thermal manikins. As
the standards and requirements for safety and protective garments continue
to increase, thermal manikin systems will become even more important asprotective garment quality inspection instruments.
REFERENCES
Thomas L. Endrusick, B.Sc., Leander A. Stroschein, B.Sc. and Richard R.
Gonzalez, Ph.D. United States Military Use of Thermal Manikins In
Protective Clothing Research
U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine. Biophysics andBiomedical Modeling Division. Kansas Street, Natick, MA
01760-5007 Mosley.
Measurement Technology Northwest. Thermal Products Descriptions andProposals. 4211 24th Avenue West, Seattle WA 98199, USA.

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ROLE OF LOGISTICS DURINGCYCLONE SIDRMEHEDI AHMED ANSARY, RUBEL DAS and AFIFA IMTLAZ BNUS
BUET, Bangladesh
ansary@ce.buet.ac.bd
ABSTRACT
A huge economical and live loss occurs every year in Bangladesh due
to natural and man made disaster. It will be a daydream to prevent thenatural disaster. But the loss can be mitigated by pragmatic planning.
Logistics management is a key point to tackle disaster successfully. The
roles of logistics during and after a disaster are discussed in this paper.
Cyclone SIDR has been taken as a case study. The limitations of resources
relating logistics are pointed out and studied how these affect the disastermanagement. The problems faced by the authorities have been identified to
distribute relief and evacuate people to safe and sound place after SIDR. It
has been tried to solve this problem and suggest some point such as
Decentralization of Control and Command Centre, Upgrading Private
Sector etc. It is hoped that if the suggestions are implemented, Bangladesh
will be able to overcome the affect of a disaster and minimize the loss.
1. INTRODUCTION
Bangladesh faces a lot of economical and live loss every year due to naturaland manmade disaster. As natural disaster is not preventable it is rational toenrich resources and coping capacity to face it. Is Bangladesh ready totackle any disaster? After any disaster, relief activities are hampered due tovarious reasons. One of them is Logistics management. Before going tofocus on logistic management, the present condition of transportation are
given below.
There are four modes in Bangladesh such as Railway, Roadway,
Waterway and Airway. According to 2005 Bangladesh govt report, the total
length of Railroad is 2706 km of that 923 km are broad gauge (1.67 meter)
tracks (mostly in the western region) while the remaining 1822 km aremeter gauge tracks (mostly in the central and eastern region).
There is no railway track in southern part of Bangladesh. Bangladesh
has eleven airports but due to socio economic condition airways play atrivial role in internal transport. Bangladesh had 8430 km of Navigable
waterways. There are seasonal difficulties in the navigability of rivers andcanals for the traditional country boats. (1988). In 1997, the total length ofpaved road under the Roads and Highways Department stood at more than
20000 kilometer. It is estimated that mechanized road transport carry about
70% of the country’s total passenger and cargo.
The transportation in southern part of Bangladesh is not improved yet.
The movement of people is dependent on Ferry service. According to Roads233

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and Highway Department seven Ferry have to be used to go from Barisal to
Kuakata and five ferry to go from Barisal to Barguna (see Figure 1). It takesa larger time to pass a short distance.
It is clear that the transportion condition of Bangladesh is not
sufficient. During in disaster period the condition becomes critical. The
scarcity was seen clearly after SIDR. The shortage is more in southern partof Bangladesh where SIDR hit at 15th November, 2007.
During any disaster, evacuation of people to a safe and sound place
becomes the foremost activity. Cleaning of debris after any disaster isanother concern. Except effective logistics plan it is impossible to do herein
uninterrupted way. So it is the urging demand for introducing disaster
logistics in disaster prone zone.

Assortmentof ferry

Figure 1: Position of ferry service in Bangladesh
2. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
According to Stephenson (1993) “The Emergency or Relief Logistics is thebasic task of a logistics system: to deliver the appropriate supplies, in goodcondition, in the quantities required, and at the places and the time they areneeded. Relief Logistics encompass the relocation of disaster affected
people, transfer of casualties, and the movement of relief workers.”
Bangladesh has no plan for Emergency or Relief Logistics. .
A Bangladesh Network Office for Urban Safety (BNUS) team has
visited the SIDR affected areas from 4th may to 11th may 2008. They havemet different professionals from Govt. and NGO sectors and some affected
population. The main objectives of this study are as follows:� To create awareness that logistics is the vital element to face any
disaster� To realize that the effectiveness of disaster logistics depends on theinvestment

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� To identify the predicament faced by the authorities during
evacuation of people and distribution of relief
3. LOSSES IN THE DISTRICTS
The super cyclone SIDR passed through Khulna and Barisal divisional
coastal districts, huge damages took place in those districts. The worst andbadly affected 13 districts were Barguna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Patuakhali,
Jhalokathi, Bhola, Barisal, Madaripur, Sariatpur, Gopalganj, Khulna andSatkhira.
Huge loss of life, damages to houses, livestock, crops, educational
institutions, roads and embankments have been reported from 1811 unionsof 200 upazilas of 31 districts. Official sources admitted about 3500 deaths.
Total or partial destruction of more than 80% thatched houses, took place
70% of the almost harvestable paddy, 60 to 70% of fisheries and huge
number of live stocks. Severity of damages in different districts is shown in
Figure 2. Different economists are assessing the economic loss using diverse
techniques, but most have found the damage to be USD 1.6 Billion (World
Bank, 2008).

Figure 2: SIDR affected area (color density represents the severity of damages)

4. LIMITATION OF RESOURCES
The devastation of super cyclone SIDR was catastrophic. To maintain otheractivities in parallel to relief activities, the authority faced some limitation
which is described below:
� Shortage of Logistics Support: There was sufficient stock of relief
to distribute among affected people. But the authorities face a
problem of shortage of logistics. Even the fare of this logistics wasexcessive. One District commissioner told that he had no fund tomeet this expense. Even he had no account to transfer the relief tothe affected people.
� Shortage of fuel and Spare parts: Another problem after SIDR
there was lack of fuel and spare parts. It was one of the hindranceson distribution of relief. When the vehicle was out of order in theroad, it creates a huge problem.
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� Storage problem: Bangladesh got ample amount of aid after SIDR.
But there was problem of storage of this aid. As proper storage was
not designed, a huge amount of truck was in queue for unloading.
� Shortage of Helicopter landing: There are a few helicopter landing.
After disaster all roads were disrupted. So airway is the inimitable
way to carry the relief to the affected people efficiently.
� Falling of trees: The little amount of roads remained were blocked
by the fallen trees. There were huge amount of fallen trees on theroad. So the road was not accessible.
5. PROBLEMS AFTER SIDR
Most of the people living in the southern part of Bangladesh have not seensuch devastating and destructive cyclone like SIDR. The authority has toface difficult situation to tackle the effect of SIDR. The logistics dependentproblems are discussed below:
� Duplication: Many SIDR affected people in some areas did notreceive any relief even after several days after SIDR. The reason
was not lack of relief. The main reason was inaccessibility of thoseareas. During that period, Bangladesh got huge amount of domestic
and foreign aids. NGOs and other Groups distribute their aid toplaces which are accessible. Duplication of relief activities in someplaces could not be avoided.
� Long queue of Trucks: There was shortage of storage, so trucks
have to wait for a long time for unloading. Security of relief isconsiderable issue after SIDR disaster.
� Collapse of Bridge: After 10 days of SIDR a bridge at Patuakhali
was collapsed due to overload. Four people died and many were
injured in this accident. It happened due to lacking of co-ordination
distributing authorities. Figure 3 shows a collapsed bridge during
the distribution of relief goods.
� Dropping of Relief: The army has dropped the relief to the affected
people from the helicopter hanging in air. Many people were
injured during collection of relief.
� Inaccessibility of Road: after SIDR some days were lost to clear
road as a huge amount of trees were fallen on the road. The
evacuation of affected people was delayed due to inaccessibility ofroad.

Figure 3: The collapsed bridge during relief distribution

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7. SOLUTION MEASURES
To mitigate the problem after disaster following suggestion are provided.
� Decentralization of Control and Command Centre: Initially only in
Dhaka later on Regional Centre was opened at Barisal which washeaded by an advisor.
� Supply Speed Boat: Only Water Development Board has two speedboats in whole patuakhali district. Other department has no water
craft. As there are no road connection in some island, to save thispeople from those islands the only way to serve is use of speed boat.
� Plowing Deep Rooted trees: Plowing trees beside trees is acommon practice in Bangladesh. It is required to increase theforestation. The trees that fell on the road were shallow rooted.
SIDR could not uproot the deep rooted trees. So it is advisable toplow deep rooted trees beside the road.
� Upgrading Private Sector: It is necessary to upgrade private sector
to distribute the relief efficiently. Government can not handle any
disaster alone. Except NGOs and other private sector, it is
impossible to tackle disastrous loss.
� Application of GIS: GIS can be used as a decision making tool
during disaster. Using GIS the deficiency can be identified andproper steps can be taken.
� Helipads: During disaster it is impossible to carry relief aid to
disaster affected area on road. The easiest and quickest way tocarry the relief is the using of airways. So by making proper plan
helipad must have build up in disaster prone area.
� Improving communication technique: Recently whole Bangladesh
has come under the mobile network coverage. According to local
people the mobile network coverage collapsed at 15th November,2007 at 8.00 pm.
Communication Networks involving radio, radio-telex, and satellite
links like satellite phones should be adopted to update real time information
for recovery operations in disaster affected areas (Hanaoka and Qadir, 2005).
Recently BUET has started an experimental set-up of early warning system
in Cox’sbazar. BUET has set up 20 instruments in different local
administration in Cox’sbazar and higher authorities in Dhaka. It is a satellite
based warning system. It can run almost eight days without any electricity
or power.
8. CONCLUSIONS
Bangladesh is a disaster prone country. Planned logistics is required toevacuate people during disaster. Coordination is mandatory for managing
pre and post disaster situation. Government unknowingly has taken somelogistic management initiatives. With proper planning pre-disaster and postdisaster situation can be better managed.

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REFERENCES
Stephenson, R. S., 1993. Logistics; Disaster Management Training
Programme (1st ed.). UN Development Programme (UNDP) & UN
Department of Humanitarian Affairs (DHA), pp.9.
Hanaoka, S. and Qadir, F. M., 2005. Logistics problems in recovery
assistance of indian ocean earthquake and tsunami disaster, Regional
symposium, AIT, Thailand
World Bank Report, 2008. Cyclone SIDR in Bangladesh, April, 2008.

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SEISMIC MICROZONATION BASED ON
SITE AMPLIFICATION STUDY OF
COX’S BAZAR IN BANGLADESH
A. B. AFIFA IMTIAZ1, MEHEDI AHMED ANSARY2and ASHUTOSH SUTRA DHAR3
Dept. of Civil Engineering, BUET, Bangladesh
afifaimt@gmail.com
ansary@ce.buet.ac.bd
ashutoshdhar@ce.buet.ac.bd
ABSTRACT
Earthquake hazard zonation for urban areas, mostly referred to asseismic microzonation, is the first and most important step towards aseismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy in densely populated regions,since damage due to an earthquake may vary even within a few meters due
to variation in local site conditions. Site Amplification is an important basisof microzonation. The basic intention of amplification assessment is toestimate the effect of local site conditions through the site response analysis.
This factor is highly dependent on the local soil conditions and on the
expected earthquakes. Cox’s Bazar and the nearby area fall in the Zone offrequent seismic activities. The area is also characterized by a significant
amount of sediment and landfill, which may greatly amplify seismic waves
and is another issue of concern for studying the site effects. Historic andrecent records reveal that motion from nearby and more distant larger
earthquakes has been felt widely in and around Cox’s Bazar over the past
few hundred years with magnitude between 6 and 7. There has been also a
rapid urbanization of Cox’s Bazar in the last few decades including
construction of significant number of buildings and other structures. It isessential to develop seismic microzonations of the area based on sitecharacterizations.
In this study, subsurface investigation conducted at 30 locations
across the district has been used for site amplification analysis. The
necessary geotechnical parameters and boring log information have beenassembled into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database andMicrozonation Map has been developed. The computer program SHAKE
has been used to compute the response subjected to vertically travellingshear waves, by incorporating the geotechnical parameters from thesubsurface investigation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Bangladesh is located close to the boundary of two active plates: the Indian
plate in the west and the Eurasian plate in the east and north. As a result ofsuch a geographical location, the country is always under a potential threat239

October 2008, Beijing, China

of earthquake. The frequent shakes in and around the country, particularly
Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar regions, point toward the potential of muchhigh intensity earthquakes than that projected. Cox’s Bazar, located in thesoutheastern part of Bangladesh, is a strategically and economicallyimportant city of the country. The district is exposed to most devastating
natural disasters of the country where earthquake has recently appeared asadditional threat to this region. Therefore, it is essential to develop anearthquake preparedness program for the region in order to reduce thepotential losses expected from the disaster. In order to achieve this goal,
earthquake vulnerability of Cox’s Bazar District has been assessed on thebasis of Site Amplification. This paper deals with the development of a
microzonation map based on the spatial variation of site amplification for
the District.
2. SITE AMPLIFICATIONThe basic principle behind the microzonation technique is to explore thelocal subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground shaking effects. During
earthquakes, the ground motion parameters such as amplitude of motion,
frequency content and duration of the ground motion change as the seismic
waves propagate through overlying soil and reach the ground surface. The
phenomenon, wherein the local soils act as a filter and modify the groundmotion characteristics, is known as ‘soil amplification problem’. Physicallythe problem is to predict the characteristics of the seismic motions that canbe expected at the free surface (or at any depth) of a soil stratum.
Mathematically the problem is one of wave propagation in a continuous
medium. If the medium is linearly elastic and the geometry is relatively
simple, analytical solutions can be obtained for any kind of waves. In
practice, since the wave content of a potential earthquake is hard to predict,solutions are often limited to the simple case of shear wave propagating
vertically.
3. SEISMIC MICROZONATION BASED ON SITEAMPLIFICATION
To locate and quantify earthquake hazards estimation of the site-specificdynamic response of a layered soil deposit, soil amplification study isrequired. In seismic microzonation the variation in seismic response of thesubsurface is displayed and subsequently where the soil is being amplified
to a level that may damage existing buildings or other structures at thatlocation is determined. The spatial variation of the estimated amplificationand frequency is then plotted in the GIS on the site map. This analysis is
generally the preliminary step for most aseismic studies. This study enables
to calculate site natural periods, assess ground motion amplification andresponse spectra, the parameters which are important for design and safety
evaluation of structures. From microzonation maps it will be possible tooutline the hazardous areas for buildings. Again certain building types are
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others. Since seismic micro zoning can show the frequency content ofvibration due to different local ground condition, it can be used to ensurethat a match does not occur between buildings vulnerable to certain
frequencies of vibration and ground conditions that are likely to vibrate inthat frequency range. Thus avoiding building being damaged by ‘resonanceeffect’ in zones where the ground is likely to vibrate in certain frequency
ranges.
4. COX’S BAZAR: THE STUDY AREA
4.1

Vulnerability of the Area

Historical study suggests that Bangladesh is susceptible to earthquakesof moderate to high magnitude. Mild tremors continue to occur in thesouthern parts of the country without any significant casualties or life loss,
so far. Figure 1 shows epicenters of the historical earthquake data in andaround Cox's Bazar district over the last fifty years (Ansary, 2006). Data
reveals that a 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurred in this zone in 1955 andthere is a possibility of occurrence of high magnitude earthquake in theupcoming years in and around Cox's Bazar district.

Figure 1: Historical earthquakes around Cox’s Bazar
4.2

Geological Condition of Cox’s Bazar

The district of Cox's Bazar is bound on the west and south by the Bayof Bengal, on the east by the hill ranges of elevation around 100-200 m.
Basin of Matamuhuri River and Bakkhali river form the morphologicalpattern on the North of the district. The continent of the district of Cox's
Bazar includes two distinct geological settings namely Tertiary folded belt
and coastal deposits. The tertiary folded belt extends north-south as part of
the Indo-Burmese mobile belt, that is characterized by long narrow folds(Alam et al 1990). Coastal deposits overlies the Tertiary formation, resulting
in different surfacial forms. The present day morphology of the area are

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believed to be influenced by the Holocene sea level rise, tidal and fluvial
discharges and very special type of physical set up of the plain around
Tertiary Hills (Huq and Ahmed, 1997). Figure 7 shows the geologicalstructures in Cox's Bazar area after Alam et al (1990). Figure 7 reveals thatthe area around the city of Cox's Bazar predominantly composed of Dihing
Formation and Dupi Tila formation of pliocene-pleistocene age. The
Formations are characterized by fine to medium grained poorly consolidated
sandstone and clayey sandstone of variable colors ranging from yellow,
brown to grey. To the south of Dihing and Dupi Tila formation is the
Girujan clay of Pleistocene and Neogene age followed by Tipam sandstoneof Neogene age. The formations covers Ukhia Upazila on the South, part of
Ramu Upazila on north and north east and a thin zone to the east of Cox's
Bazar. The Girujan clay is grey to greenish grey, red mottled silty shale,
shale and clay stone inter bedded with subordinate thin bedded silt stone andcross bedded sand stone. The Tipam sandstone is fine to medium grainedsandstone, siltstone on shale, massive to thin bedded, locally cross bedded
and current bedded. The south of Giruan and Tipam formation is the
Bokabil formation of Neogene age and Bhuban formations of Miocene age.
The area includes Teknaf Upazila on south and eastern part of Cox's Bazar
city. The formations are characterized as massive to thin bedded shale,siltstone and sandstone. Figure 2 shows the geological structure of Cox’s
Bazar District from the Geological Map of Bangladesh published byGeological Survey of Bangladesh in 1990.

Figure 2: Geological Structures (after Alam et. al., 1990)

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5. ASSESSMENT OF SITE AMPLIFICATION
5.1

Methodology Review

Several methods for evaluating the effect of local soil conditions on
ground response during earthquake are presently available. Most of thesemethods are based on the assumptions that the main response in a soil
deposit are caused by the upward propagation of shear waves from theunderlying rock formation. Analytical procedures based on this concept
incorporating non-linear soil behavior, have been shown to give results ingood agreement with field observations in a number of cases. Accordingly
they are found in increasing use in earthquake engineering for predicting
responses within soil deposits and the characteristics of ground surface
motions. The analytical procedure generally involves the following steps:� Determination of the characteristics of the motions likely todevelop in the rock formation underlying the site
� Determination of the dynamic properties of the soil Deposit� Computation of the response of the soil deposit to the base rockmotionExcitation of a compliant medium (e.g. a soil deposit) takes time forthe effects of the excitation to be felt at distant/different points. The effects
are felt in the form of waves that travel through the medium. The manner inwhich these waves travel is a function of the stiffness and attenuation
characteristics of the medium and will control the effects they produce.
Usually, the geological materials are treated as continua and the dynamic
response of these materials to dynamic/transient loading such as earthquakes
are evaluated in the context of one or two or three-dimensional wave
propagations depending on the geometry and loading conditions.
5.2

One-dimensional Wave Propagation Analysis

One-dimensional ground response analyses are widely used for ‘soil
amplification studies’. These types of analyses are believed to provide
conservative results and are time tested. Most design projects in the past
designed using this methodology survived the earthquakes. Moreover, alarge number of commercial programs with different soil models based on
this principle are also available for use on personal computers. The
assumptions considered in one-dimensional ground response analysis are� All boundaries are horizontal and soil layers and bedrock areassumed to extend infinitely in the horizontal direction (halfsphere)� The ground surface is level� The incident earthquake motions are spatially-uniform,horizontally-polarized shear waves, and propagate vertically, that is,inclined incoming seismic rays are reflected to a near-verticaldirection, because of decrease in velocities of surface deposits
In the areas of strong earthquake motion, the stress waves, from theearthquake focus propagate nearly vertically when they arrive at the earth’s
surface. Wave velocity generally decreases from the earth’s interior towards

Seismic Microzonation Based on Site Amplification Study of Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh243

October 2008, Beijing, China

the surface, and hence stress waves from the focus are bent by successive
refractions into a nearly vertical path. Even if the waves within the firm
ground propagate in a shallow inclined direction, the waves set up within
the soil by refraction at the interface between the firm ground and soil
propagate nearly vertically. Soil properties generally vary more rapidly inthe vertical direction than in the horizontal direction. A complete groundresponse analysis should consider the major factors such as sitecharacteristics, rock motions as well as the additional factors such as rupture
mechanism at the source of earthquake, propagation of seismic waves
through the crust to the top of bedrock. However, these factors are difficult
to quantify and hence the whole procedure becomes highly complicated.
Therefore, one-dimensional ground response analyses are used extensively
due to their simplicity.
5.3

Analysis Method for Soil Amplification

A number of techniques (linear, equivalent linear or nonlinear) areavailable for ‘ground response analysis’. In this research the EquivalentLinear Analysis (Schnabel et al. 1972) has been used. This addresses
nonlinear hysteretic stress–strain properties of sand by using an equivalentlinear method of analysis. The method was originally based on the lumped
mass model of sand deposits resting on rigid base to which the seismic
motions were applied. Later, this method was generalized to wave
propagation model with an energy-transmitting boundary. The seismic
excitation could be applied at any level in the new model.
5.4

Estimation of Site Effects

Wave propagation is particularly affected by the local geology and thegeotechnical ground conditions. Large amplification of the seismic signals
generally occurs in areas where layers of low seismic velocity overliematerial with high seismic velocity, i.e. where soft sediments cover bedrock
or more stiff soils. In this research the effect of local soil conditions on
ground response has been evaluated using widely used computer program
SHAKE, capable of computing the responses for a known motion given
anywhere in a system. The rock motion is assumed not to vary within aregion. The program incorporates non-linear soil behavior, the effect of theelasticity of the base rock and systems with variable damping.
5.4.1 Description of the Program SHAKEThe earliest software written that uses the principle of onedimensional analyses is called: SHAKE. The computer program SHAKE
was written in 1970-71 by Dr. Per Schnabel and Prof. John Lysmer(Schnabel et al., 1972). This has been by far the most widely used programfor computing seismic response of horizontally layered soil deposits. The
response of the soil deposit is considered here to be caused by shear waves
propagating vertically from the underlying bedrock. The program is basedon the continuous solution to the wave- equation adapted for use withtransient motions through the fast Fourier transform algorithm. A so-called
Transfer Function is used as a technique for 1D ground response analysis.

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Here the time history of the bedrock (input) motion is in the frequency
domain represented as a Fourier series using Fourier transform. Each termin the Fourier series is subsequently multiplied by the Transfer Function.
The surface (output) motion is then expressed in the time domain using theinverse Fourier transform. The nonlinearity of the shear modulus anddamping is accounted for by the use of equivalent linear soil properties
using an iterative procedure to obtain values for modulus and damping
compatible with the effective strains in each layer.
5.5

Use of SPT-value for Shear Wave Velocity

The Standard Penetration Test (SPT) has been widely used toinvestigate soil deposit for identifying subsurface soil profiles. There areseveral empirical relations correlating the SPT-N value and Shear Wave
Velocity (Vs) as Shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Empirical Relations Correlating SPT-N value and Shear Wave
Velocity (After TC4, 1993)
Researchers

Imai and Yoshimura (1970)
Ohba and Toriumi (1970)
Ohta and Goto (1978)

Imai (1977)

Okamoto et al. (1989)
Tamura and Yamazaki (2002)

Equation

0.33

Vs = 76 N
Vs = 84 N0.31
Vs = 69 N0.17 D0.2 F1 F2Where
F2 = 1.00 (clay)
F1 = 1.0 (H);= 1.3 (P);= 1.09 (f. sand)= 1.07 (m. sand)= 1.14 (c. sand)= 1.15 (g. sand)= 1.45 (gravel)
Vs = a Nb
Where
a = 102;b = 0.29 (H. clay)= 81;= 0.33 (H. sand)= 114= 0.29 (P. clay)= 97= 0.32 (P. sand)Vs = 125 N0.3 (P. clay)
Vs = 105 N0.187 D0.179

Here,
Vs = Shear Wave Velocity (m/s); N = Corrected SPT blow countD = Depth (m); H = Holocene; P = Pleistocene
f = Fine; m = Medium; c = Coarse; g = Gravelly
6. ASSESSMENT OF SITE AMPLIFICATION IN COX’S BAZAR
6.1

Site Soil Condition and Data Collection

The procedure employed to assess the site amplification is based onStandard Penetration Test (SPT) blow counts in soil bore logs. A total of 30
soil boring logs with SPT have been used for site amplification study of
Cox’s Bazar District. Most of the soil data were collected from the depths

Seismic Microzonation Based on Site Amplification Study of Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh245

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up to 30 meters. Almost all the boring data include SPT N-value measured
at 1.5 m (5ft) interval. The soil borehole locations used in this study are
shown in Figure 5. Figure 6 shows a typical soil profile of the District for a
Borehole from Kutubdia, Cox’s Bazar.

Figure 5: Cox’s Bazar District Map Showing Boring Locations

Figure 6: Typical soil profile from Kutubdia, Cox’s Bazar
The geotechnical investigation through the boreholes reveals that thesubsoil of the Cox’s Bazar district is predominantly sand. The data revealthat top layers of soil of the area has mostly loose sand to medium stiff clay
and middle layers are medium dense while underlying soil is medium dense
to dense sand. The very dense sand with SPT-N values over 50 is assumed
to be sandstone. The depth of the Sandstone appears to increase from North
to South.

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6.2

Estimation of Site Amplification

In the present study local site conditions have been used for
microzonation of Cox’s Bazar District. At the Borehole points shear wave
velocities were estimated by using SPT test results. A soil database of 30
boreholes was developed in MS-EXCEL. Empirical correlations between
shear wave velocity (Vs) and number of blows from Standard Penetration
Test (SPT-N) were used for the estimation of amplification factors. Siteamplification was assessed using estimated values of Vs and one
dimensional site response numerical modeling program SHAKE. From theTable 1, the equations of Ohta and Goto (1978) and Tamura andYamamzaki (2002) have been selected as best suited for the analysis as bothof them combine both depth and SPT-N value with soil conditions and are
expected to compute the most hazardous condition. Using both therelationships Shear Wave Velocities (Vs) at different depths for all theboreholes were computed. Since the correlation proposed by Tamura andYamamzaki (2002) based on 7677 soil data collected from 1000 Japanese
K-NET strong motion accelerometer locations, produced higher values ofVs, it was used as the basis of further analysis, taking the worst conditionsin the account. Using the soil configurations transfer functions were
calculated for different points of the district employing SHAKE numericalcode. The computation was made in the frequency range of 0 to 20 Hz, atfrequencies every 0.05 Hz interval. The loss of energy of seismic waves inthe soil layers was also considered. In this study, the engineering bedrock
was assumed to be the layer at which the shear wave velocity (Vs) exceeds
400 m/s, which exist almost 30 m deep from the surface of the study area.
An estimation of the fundamental frequency and the maximum value of theamplification were obtained for each site (Table 2).
Table 2: Amplification Factor and Corresponding Predominant Frequency

Seismic Microzonation Based on Site Amplification Study of Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 2 (contd.): Amplification Factor and Corresponding
Predominant Frequency

The vibration characteristics of each site such as frequency andamplification were found, through plotting the results of the analysis.
Typical graphic representation of frequency versus amplitude is shown in
Figure 7. From the plotted data the first peak has been considered for
microzonation since the largest amplification of the soil will occur at thelowest natural frequency or its fundamental frequency (Equation 1). The
period of vibration corresponding to the fundamental frequency is called thecharacteristic site period (Equation 2).
(1)
Here,
�0 = fundamental frequency, Vs = Shear wave velocity, H = Soil thickness(2)Here, Ts = Characteristic site period(3.7, 3.0)

Predominant Freq. = 3.7
Amplification = 3.0

Figure 7: Amplification Factor and Corresponding Predominant Frequency

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The characteristic site period, which only depends on the soil
thickness and shear wave velocity of the soil, provides indication of theperiod of vibration at which the most significant amplification can be
expected. By incorporating the variation in soil thickness and the average
shear wave velocity, the spatial variation in the characteristic site period wasmodelled in a raster-based GIS approach.
7.

GENERATION OF MICROZONATION MAP

Seismic hazards due to soil amplification can be estimated by combining theavailable soil parameters with the current hazard models. In current research
GIS (Geographical Information System) technology has been utilized forseismic microzonation of Cox’s Bazar District. The computed results fromthe site amplification potential analysis have been exported to a GIS
environment for further processing and visualization. They have beenclassified into different classes according to the extent of amplification
factors and plotted on the district map. From the findings, microzonation
maps based on Site Amplification (times) (Figure 8) and Frequencies (hz)
(Figure 9) have been plotted using spatial interpolation (Inverse Distance
Weighting) among the borehole locations and converting the vectorial point
features into continuous raster map through grid generation.
Kutubdia

Chakaria
BANDARBAN

Predominan

Maheshkhali
Ramu
Cox’s Bazar

Ukhia
MYANMARBAY OF BENGAL
TeknafSt. Martin’s Island

Figure 8: Microzonation Map
based on Amplification

Figure 9: Amplification Map based on
Fundamental Frequencies

Seismic Microzonation Based on Site Amplification Study of Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh249

October 2008, Beijing, China

The generated microzonation maps can be used as a guideline forGeneral and Effective Land Use planning, Zoning Ordinances, Capital
Invest Planning, Ground-failure Susceptibility Estimation, Post Disaster
Planning Disaster Mitigation Planning etc. From this map, it was found thatmost of the areas of the district are affected by the 2.5 times amplificationand few areas are subjected to 2 or 3 times amplification.
8. CONCLUSIONSThe purpose of this research was to develop a microzonation map using GIS
technology to quantify the seismic risk in terms of the spatial variation ofsite Amplification. Seismic Hazard maps provide important guidance whenearthquake hazard assessment for particular site might not be feasible. They
play very significant roles in seismic design of structures by identifying
different level of hazard potential for a site. Thus hazard mapping can be avery suitable tool for developing country like Bangladesh where it is worthy
to incorporate safety and economic considerations at a time in seismic
design of structures and planning of sites. The findings of this study is
expected to be of advantage for engineers, planners, emergency personnel,
and anyone who may be concerned with the potential consequences ofseismic activity in Cox’s Bazar district. The frequency map can be used to
impose restrictions on the types of building structures that may have similarfrequency. The map can act as a guide for the authorities at the national andregional levels in land use management, revision and enforcement ofappropriate building codes and formulation of plans for mitigating measuresagainst earthquake risk affecting the region considered.
REFERENCES
Alam M.K., Hasan A.K.M. and Khan M.R., (1990). Geological Map ofBangladesh. Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Govt. of the People’s
Republic of Bangladesh
Ansary M.A. (2006), Personal Communication, Department of Civil
Engineering, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Huq N.E and Ahmed N.K. (1997). Geomorphology of the Lower
Matamuhuri Basin, Cox's Bazar, Southeast Bangladesh. Bangladesh
Journal of Geology Vol 16 p31-42
Schnabel, P.B., J. Lysmer and H.B. Seed (1972). SHAKE: a computer
program for earthquake response analysis of horizontally layered sites,
Report no. EERC 72-12. Earthquake Engineering Research Center,
Berkeley, California, 1972
Tamura, I. And F. Yamazaki (2002). Estimation of S-wave velocity basedon geological survey data for K-NET and Yokohama seismometer
network. Journal of Structural Mechanics and Earthquake
Engineering No. 696, Vol. I-58, 237-248 (in Japanese)
TC4 (1993). Manual for zonation on seismic geotechnical hazards.
Published by ISSMFE

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LANDSLIDE INDUCED LAKE-TSUNAMI AT
ARATOSAWA DAM DUE TO THE IWATEMIYAGI NAIRIKU EARTHQUAKE 2008
JORGEN JOHANSSON, TAJIMA YOSHIMITSU,
FUJITA TOMOHIRO and KAZUO KONAGAI
University of Tokyo, Japanjorgen@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTIn the Iwate Miyagi Nairiku earthquake June 14 2008 a large
landslide of some 50 million cubic meters caused a lake-tsunami of several
meters when some 1.5 million cubic meters soil flowed into the Aratosawa
dam lake. The landslide mass covers an area some 1200x800m and has
average thickness approximately 50m. The landslide occurred in a soil
deposit of volcanic origin in the mountainous area on the border between
Iwate and Miyagi, south-east of the Kurikoma volcano. Assumingly a deep
layer of very porous saturated fine grained volcanic soil liquefied andcreated a base for the overlying soil to slide on. Even though the base slope
was very gentle the soil masses moved some 200 to 500 meters and causing
a tsunami, which flowed over into the spill way, but did not flow over thedam crest. No major damage to the dam infrastructure due to the tsunami
itself has been reported. However one person fishing from a small boat on
the lake allegedly drowned. Estimating by back-calculation the landslidecharacteristics such as impact velocity its relation to relation to theresulting seiche height could allow for proper discussion of possible threat
to downstream population and facilities at similar dams, and possibly tocome up with appropriate remedial measures. Therefore we havedocumented tsunami high water marks around lake, which serve as input
data for a tsunami-simulation code.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the Iwate Miyagi Nairiku earthquake June 14 2008 some 25 km to theWest of Ichinoseki a 50 million m3 large landslide ((marked by a green
arrow in Figure 1; see Figure 2 and Figure 3 for an aerial photos.) caused aseiche of up 8 meters when some 1.5 million cubic meters of soil slid into
the dam lake. The seiche flowed into the spill way but did not flow over thedam crest.

259

October 2008, Beijing, China

Aratozawa dam

Ichinoseki

Tokyo
Figure 1: Location of the Aratozawa dam site in Kurikomabunji, Kurihara
city, Miyagi Prefecture (����������). The red line isapproximate location of fault surface rupture observations.
With the purpose of back calculating a possible sliding velocity withthe help of a tsunami simulation tool, we have recorded high water marks
around the dam lake. Topography before and after the earthquake andbathymetry data is also being collected to use as input data.
2. DESCRIPTION OF THE LANDSLIDE
Figure 2 shows aerial photo of the largest landslide with Kurikoma Volcano
rising behind. The terrain here suggests that similar landslides have beenreactivated. A wide-spread and almost horizontal laminar structure of lose
volcanic sands and ashes is being exposed on the escarpment. Comparing
two aerial photos (Figure 3) taken before and after the earthquake, one cangrasp the size of the landslide, which is approximately 1200 meters long,
800 meters wide, and has an average thickness of some 50 meters. It is also

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seen in the Figure 3 that the lake is brown colored due to a large amount offine soil sediment suspended in the water.

Figure 2: Landslide at Aratosawa dam: Aerial photo of the largest landslidewith Kurikoma Volcano rising behind. The terrain here is suggestive thatsimilar landslides have been reactivated.
A height colored the digital elevation model with road location before
and after the sliding is shown in Figure 5. The arrows show that Points P1P2 and P3 have respectively moved about 200m, 300m and 500m SSE
towards the dam lake. Even though the slope was very gentle (The crosssection A-A’ Figure 5b) shows a gradient of about 3-4 degrees) thelandslide moved between 200 to 500 meters towards and into the dam lake.
Between June 15 and July 19 deformation was still going on and a newlarge crack appeared behind point A in Figure 5a).
Walking around at the lower part of the landslide several different
volcanic soil types were found, ranging from weathered conglomerates tosandy and silty fine grained soils. In some locations evidence of liquefaction
was found, in such as areas one would easily sink down to the knees in very
soft sandy soils with high water content. Water was also seeping out inmany locations. The part of the landslide that actually entered in to the lake,
seems to have been more like a debris flow then a coherent soil mass. Treetrunks and road guard rails were found mixed into the soil mass. A traffic
sign found on the soil mass that entered into the lake indicate the long
travelling distance.

Landslide Induced Lake-Tsunami at Aratosawa Dam due to the Iwate Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake 2008 261

October 2008, Beijing, China

N

345 m
~800m
~1200mFigure 3: Aratasawa dam landslide escarpment outlined with dashedlineafter (upper) and before (below) the earthquake. The solid lines to theleft shows some road sections for easier correlation of the photos.
Some pieces of light-gray rock fragments (see262

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Figure 4) were sampled at the toe of the landslide, at point Ps(38.8942N, 140.8545E) shown in Figure 5.The specific gravity immediately
after the sampling (2008/06/16, 18:00) was 1.78 g/cm3, and after drying one
day at 105 degrees C in oven it was 1.18 g/cm3. After soaking the sample inwater for three hours it increased to 1.69 g/cm3. It is remarkable that the
specific gravity of the dried sample is quite small, indicating the presence oflarge volume of voids. When soaked up with water, the sample smells
hydrogen sulfide, an evidence of the volcanic origin of the soil. It is likelythat such a porous soil did liquefy during the earthquake, and thereby played
an important roll in triggering the slide.

Figure 4: Rock sample smelling strong hydrogen sulfide taken from Point Ps
in Figure 5.
Not only shaking may have been the cause of the slide, but tectonic
deformation accompanying the earthquake may have played a roll. An
investigation team of the Active Fault Research Center (AFRC, 2008) havedocumented surface fault features at several locations (marked
approximately by the red line in the upper part of Figure 1.) An AFRC teamfound a surface fault segment some 500 meter long with right lateral slip of
up to 7 meters and vertical off-sets of 2-3 meters (see Figure 6) to the eastof the landslide scarp. It is possible that this surface fault have contributed
to the triggering of the landslide.
The shaking also caused compaction and settlements of the groundaround lake. E.g. near the parking lot on the eastern side of the lake avertical pvc pipe used for measurement cables was sticking out of groundsome 10-15 cm indicating that the surrounding soil had settled a lot. It wasalso reported (Kayen et. el., 2008) that the dam body had also settled some
40 cm and moved a few centimeters towards north.
3. TSUNAMI TRACES
When the landslide entered into the lake it casued a seiche travelling at
some 10 to 15 m/s towards main dam body, reaching it after minute and half
or so after that the landslide entered into the lake. The seiche travel velocity,v, was roughly estimated with formula, v � gh , where g is thegravitational acceleration and assuming the depth h is some 10 to 20 m. The
seiche flowed over into the spill way, but did not flow over the dam crest.

Landslide Induced Lake-Tsunami at Aratosawa Dam due to the Iwate Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake 2008 263

October 2008, Beijing, China

No major damage to the dam infrastructure due to the tsunami itself has
been reported. However one person fishing from a small boat on the lake
allegedly drowned.

A
P1
P3
P2
P4

��
����

� �� ���������

����

Ps

(38.8942N, 140.8545E)
����

����

���
���

���

���

� �� ���������

500m

0

500

1000 m

A’

a)

200m
0

500

1000

1500m

b)

Figure 5: Landslide at Aratosawa dam. The road locations after and before(gray) the earthquake. Even though the base slope was very gentle the soil
masses have moved some 200 to 500 meters. (Aero Asahi Co. provided thedigital elevation model).
With idea of back calculating possible sliding characteristics such as
soil volume entering into the lake and its impact/sliding velocity, wemeasured seiche high water marks on July 13 and 25. We used a for thelocations of the high water marks and a handheld laser ranger was used tomeasure the height above the lake elevation. Since the lake was being
emptied slowly we corrected the height for the difference between lakeelevations on the days of measurements and the time of the earthquake.
Table 1 gives lake water elevations as measured by dam management office.
The water level was lowered with some 15 to 20 cm/day and as of thiswriting the lake is completely empty (water elevation 237 m) as to allow for
inspection of the basin. Table 2 gives coordinates and corrected seicheheights in meters with respect to the lake elevation before the earthquake(268.5m.)

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Aratosawa Dam

Figure 6: Map with landslide escarpment in purple and surface fault in red(after Active Fault Research Center).
As can be seen in Table 1 the lake elevation increased from 268.5 m
before the earthquake to 270.9 m after the earthquake. The difference inlake elevation before and after the earthquake is due to that a part of thelandslide mass entered into the lake and possibly also due to some tectonic
deformation accompanying the earthquake. Assuming the lake elevation
increase was only due to the landslide, it is estimated that out of the 50
million cubic meter large landslide some 1.5 million cubic meters enteredinto the lake.
Table 1: Dam Lake elevations measured by Dam Managament Office

DateJune 14 2008

Elevation [m]268.5

June 14 2008

270.9

July 13 2008

261.2

July 25 2008

259.1

RemarkBefore Earthquake
After Earthquake, water level increased due tolandsliding and possibly due to tectonic deformation
Reference elevation for measurements on July 13(Lake is being emptied slowly)
Reference elevation for measurements on July 25

Landslide Induced Lake-Tsunami at Aratosawa Dam due to the Iwate Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake 2008 265

October 2008, Beijing, China

Point Id

LatitudeLongitude

Height above lakeelevation before
earthquake [m]Table 2. GPS data and high water marks with respect to the lake elevation
before earthquake for July 13 and July 25.

Time

3

38 53 28.9 N

140 51 18.7 E

8.7July 13 20084

38 53 28.4 N

140 51 17.0 E

4.2

July 13 20086

38 53 24.3 N

140 51 20.1 E

8.5

July 13 20088

38 53 35.2 N

140 51 16.1 E

4.1July 13 2008938 53 34.2 N

140 51 16.1 E

5.5July 13 200810

38 53 33.4 N

140 51 16.1 E

6.1July 13 200811

38 53 1.6 N

140 50 25.6 E

4.5July 13 200812

38 53 4.7 N

140 50 28.7 E

3.7July 13 200813

38 53 7.9 N

140 50 31.3 E

7.7

July 13 200814

38 53 4.8 N

140 50 32.4 E

3.2July 13 200815

38 53 10.6 N

140 50 51.4 E

4.2

July 13 200816

38 53 10.6 N

140 50 52.8 E

4.5July 13 2008194

38 53 36.4 N

140 51 06.5 E

9.35

July 25 2008196

38 53 33.4 N

140 51 04.0 E

7.25

July 25 2008197

38 53 32.1 N

140 51 03.9 E

7.35

July 25 2008198

38 53 31.1 N

140 51 04.8 E

5.95

July 25 2008199

38 53 30.7 N

140 51 05.1 E

6.55

July 25 2008200

38 53 29.5 N

140 51 06.4 E

4.15

July 25 2008201

38 53 28.9 N

140 51 05.8 E

6.35

July 25 2008202

38 53 27.0 N

140 51 04.6 E

7.75

July 25 2008203

38 53 26.8 N

140 51 05.0 E

6.75

July 25 2008204

38 53 26.8 N

140 51 07.2 E

5.15

July 25 2008205

38 53 26.3 N

140 51 06.8 E

5.75

July 25 2008206

38 53 25.7 N

140 51 07.1 E

6.85

July 25 2008

207

38 53 25.0 N

140 51 06.9 E

5.85

July 25 2008208

38 53 23.4 N

140 51 06.9 E

5.25

July 25 2008209

38 53 22.8 N

140 51 07.6 E

6.45

July 25 2008210

38 53 22.4 N

140 51 07.9 E

7.25

July 25 2008211

38 53 21.0 N

140 51 09.2 E

5.45

July 25 2008212

38 53 20.1 N

140 51 09.8 E

6.25

July 25 2008213

38 53 18.9 N

140 51 09.8 E

7.45

July 25 2008214

38 53 19.0 N

140 51 10.4 E

7.75

July 25 2008215

38 53 18.5 N

140 51 10.9 E

8.05

July 25 2008216

38 53 18.0 N

140 51 11.8 E

6.35

July 25 2008217

38 53 17.3 N

140 51 13.8 E

4.95

July 25 2008

The high water marks (fromTable 2) are plotted in Figure 7. We can see that on the right side in
the Figure 7 (East side) the elevation increases from 4.1 meters to 8.7. On
the Western side there is a zig-zag patterns of heights, whether this may be

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due to the topographical features of the lake border and/or due to error in
our measurements. One can often not be sure of having identified thehighest high-water-mark in the field. At the far end, points 11, 12, 14 in
Figure 7, heights are lower, likely since here the seiche can can spread andrun up long distances. However at point 13 which is close to a fairly steep
location the seiche height reached 7.7m.

Figure 7: Seiche heights, with respect to lake elevation before theearthquake, as measured in the field on July 13 and July 25.
The high water marks together with topography (digital elevation
models) of the area before and after the earthquake, are now used as inputs
to a shallow water wave propagation code, with which we hope to perform aparametric study to back calculate the possible landslide characteristics suchas sliding velocity. The velocity of the landslide in combination with thegeometry of how the landslide enters into a body of water would be usefulwhen considering different remedial measures for similar dams. It is
important e.g. to evaluate the landslide velocity needed for the water to flow
over the dam crest and thereby possibly causing damage to the dam
infrastructure and/or becoming a threat to the people living below the dam.

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4. SUMMARY
A 50 million m3 large earthquake induced landslide at Aratosawa dam
caused a tsunami when entering to the lake and flowed over into thespillway, but not over the crest. While one person is believed to have died
due to the tsunami no damage to dam infrastructure or to down stream
occurred. However lessons from this tsunami may be very useful when
dealing with the possibility of future events. There we have documented
high water marks around the lake with the future objective of backcalculating and evaluating important parameters, characterizing theinteraction between the landslide mass and water in the lake, such as impact
velocity and geometry.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We thank Prof Suzuki Takasuke for explaining the local geology, Toshihiko
Katagiri and Date Masaki for helping during the field reconnaissance andEdwin Leon for plotting the tsunami heights.
REFERENCES
Active Fault Research Center, Quick Report on the 2008 Iwate Miyagi
Nairiku Earthquake”, (in Japanese), 2008, Web site last accessed
August 5,
2008,��� ��������.
http://unit.aist.go.jp/actfault/katsudo/jishin/iwate_miyagi/report/08070
9/index.html
Robert Kayen, Brady Cox, Jorgen Johansson, Clint Steele, Paul
Sommerville, Kazuo Konagai, Yu Zhao, Hajime Tanaka,
Geoengineering and Seismological Aspects of the Iwate MiyagiNairiku, Japan Earthquake of June 14, 2008, GEER Web Report
2008.2
v.1,
2008.
http://research.eerc.berkeley.edu/projects/GEER/GEER_Post%20EQ%20Reports/Japan_2008/Cover_Japan2008.html

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INTEGRATED INFORMATIONSYSTEM FOR LANDSLIDE DISASTER
MANAGEMENTKIMIRO MEGURO, AKIYUKI KAWASAKI and TATIANA TORRESInternational Center for Urban Safety Engineering, Institute of Industrial
Science, The University of Tokyo
meguro@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp,
ABSTRACTSpecialized publications available on the field of landslide assessment
indicate that significant developments have taken place in the last decades.
However, there is a gap between the information provided by scientific andtechnological advances and the tools that really find their way into practice.
A systematic approach to incorporate these developments within thelandslide management practice is presented herein.
This paper presents a new decision support tool to enhance the use oflandslide information in landslide management practice and to assist
decision makers in planning an efficient and systematic landslide
assessment. The proposed system integrates landslide management actions
with type of assessment, method, data, and scale, in order to assist users to
get hold of relevant information for their purpose. The prototype system wasdeveloped as a web-based computer application, which combines a
relational database and updating strategies that guarantees a sustainable
and affordable system for landslide management.
1. INTRODUCTION
Landslides might not be as impressive as other natural disasters; however
they are the most widespread geohazard on the earth. According to Varnes(1984), landslides cause more life and property losses than any othergeological hazard. Moreover, a significant part of the damages andcasualties associated to other natural disasters such as earthquakes or intensestorms are due to landslides triggered during or after these events.
These losses are expected to rise with the increase in demands forliving spaces. Countermeasures have to be taken as long as overpopulationand the uncontrolled growth of urban areas increase the exposure of people
to natural threats. Landslide management strategies to avoid or mitigate theadverse effects of these disasters are required to tackle with this problem.
Clear final targets have to be highlighted in order to produce valuable
information. A dearth of guidelines or strategies to match landslide
assessment with user requirements and constraints is regarded as the criticalissue to take advantage of developments in landslide assessment.

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This paper presents a new decision support tool called Integrated LandslideManagement System –ILMS- to help decision makers, managers and otherusers involved in landslide management to effectively carry out landslide
assessments aimed at producing useful information. ILMS guides the user
through the complex choices involved in landslide assessment to meetuser’s specific needs. A prototype of this tool is implemented as an internet
based application linked to a relational database.
2. INFORMATION IN LANDSLIDE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Landslide management is the set of actions or strategies taken in order toreduce the occurrence of landslides or to minimize their effects. These
actions often deal with cost and time constraints, and sometimes adverse
social, economical and environmental consequences. In order to overcome
this complex condition, decision makers are called to make effective use of
information and tools for enhancing the effectiveness of the actions and to
avoid the waste of resources and undesired effects. Unfortunately the gap
between decision maker requirements and available information hinders
decision makers from using proper information.
The importance of information in landslide management; as pointed
by Wold (1989), lies on the fact that landslide losses that have occurred
might have been prevented or avoided if relevant landslide information has
been available and used.
The role of information in landslide management can be understoodbased on the decision making cycle (See Figure 1). This scheme portrays theflow of information along the execution of actions. The process engages theuse of information for each stage. In this scheme, information represents the
support necessary to examine feasibility, cost-effectiveness and the likely
impacts of actions. In brief, information is the base needed to support
actions. As Kim (2007) states “having the right and timely information
represents a higher probability of making a right decision”.

Figure 1: Decision making cycle

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However in most of the cases; decisions are based on values,
preferences, intuitions, prejudices and social situations of the organizations
and individual who make them. Therefore, a significant challenge inlandslide management might be using the appropriate information at theappropriate place and time from a practical point of view.
It is important to keep in mind that information deals with different
scales and contents. Therefore, decision makers who will act on the findingsof the assessment should help to frame the issues that will be assessed inorder to produce useful information. As MA (2005) asserts, even if anassessment is technically credible and focused on relevant issues, theintended users of an assessment may not use the findings if they do notparticipate in the definition process. In fact, Aleoti (1999) states that lessthan 25% of the landslide assessment has been fully utilized from a practicalpoint of view.
It might be stated that existing landslide assessments do not makepractical use of the information. Moreover, keeping in mind that the cost of
acquiring information is significant and there is a tradeoff between the cost
and the value of information; a strategy for linking assessment and theinformation needs for supporting actions is in fact required.
3. INTEGRATED INFORMATION SYSTEM
Integrated Landslide Management System ILMS is a decision support toolfor decision makers, manager and others who use landslide assessment for
taking their actions. It guides the user through the complex choices involvedin landslide assessment to meet his needs.
The main target of ILMS is to provide a guide to maximize benefits ofavailable landslide assessment and technologies in order to produce relevant
information for taking an action. In addition, the proposed system may be
regarded as a mean to find better landslide assessments and to prioritize therequired improvements in terms of data in order to achieve more detailed
studies.
3.1 Conceptual Framework
The conceptual framework of the system is shown in Figure 2. It issuggested that the planning of landslide assessment process should startfrom fixing the action and based on that, identifying what is the purpose orscope of the intended information. This evaluation will help to establish thecontent and scale characteristics. These two issues play a key role to reachrelevant information; they define what should be done. In the context of the
proposed system, the explicit definition of these elements makes a rational
link between landslide assessment and its use.

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Figure 2: ILMS conceptual framework
However, due to restrictions in time, funds, data, and technology; theintended information is inevitably constrained. Therefore, a second question
arises: what can be done. It is important to mention that if constraints are themain driver in assessment planning, there is a possibility that the results
become useless and a waste of time, money and resources. ILMS prototype
includes data availability as a controlling constraint; further improvements
should be done in order to take into account other constraints.
The system’s features and its relations are shown in Figure 3. First, anaction determines the required information; then the required information
controls the selection of method and data. Finally, the constraints define theapplicable method and control the produced information.

Figure 3: Relationships among key features of ILMS.

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3.2 System Development
The ILMS development strategy is illustrated in Figure 4. The
prototype system was made by collating, evaluating, summarizing, andinterpreting the scientific and practical knowledge in the landslide
assessment field. The scientific knowledge is based on technical reports,
papers, books, and the practical knowledge is elicited from experts involvedin landslide management. The knowledge collected was interpreted andencoded in a structured knowledge database that contains the rules, methods,
and data, arranged in a useful form in order to support an efficient
information management. An extensive integration and harmonization
process in non-standardized data structures was required in the developmentof ILMS.
Once the structured knowledge data was consolidated, a web based
application was developed in order to create a platform to interact with the
database. The application is composed of two elements; the inference engine
and the user interface. The inference engine contains the code at the core of
the system while the user interface allows the dialog between the user andthe system through consults and feedback.
Apache was used as web server software, MySQL as databasemanagement software and php as scripting language. Basically, when a user
makes a consult, the web server passes the consult to the engine, then theengine calls the knowledge stored in the database management system. It is
made through a runtime compiled code that also allows returning the
response to the user interface.

Figure 4: ILMS development process
The user interface layout of ILMS is shown in Figure 5. The layout iscomposed of 6 sections; the head, navigation menu, explanation, links, main
frame and navigation control. The head, navigation menu, and link frame
are common for all the modules included in the system, whereas the main,
explanation and navigation frames change depending on the module. The

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navigation menu is a driven-menu and it allows users to navigate among all
modules part of ILMS. The main frame contains the interactive core, inwhich users are asked for inputs and the system provides an output report.
The explanations frame provides guidelines about the use of the system.
3.3 System Components and Functionalities
The main components are ILMS survey, ILMS update, ILMS database, and ILMS advisor (See Figure 5).
ILMS advisor provides recommendations about the assessment’s
characteristics for meeting the user’s specific needs. It also suggests
methods and data appropriate for accomplishing a specific assessment.
Finally, it provides advices for finding methods that match user constraints.
ILMS advisor helps the user to examine both requirements and constraints.
ILMS database represents the structured knowledge discussed in
Section 3.2. It is a database of relations, methods, and data involved inlandslide assessment that can be expanded. It was designed to provide a
rapid mechanism for comparison among landslide assessment methods. It
includes relevant features of assessment methods, such as limitations andscope among others, from which it is possible to rationally select a suitable
method.

Figure 5: ILMS user interface
ILMS survey is focused on summarizing the opinions of different
people whose activities are related to landslide disaster management. The

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designed questionnaire allows the incorporation of practical knowledge toimprove continuously the knowledge database.

Figure 6: ILMS functions and components
3.4 System accessibility and update strategies
ILMS can be accessed through internet by using any web browser sothat it offers public accessibility; one of the desired features for having asustainable and affordable system.
Three specific modules were designed; ILMS survey, ILMS feedback
and ILMS update. As mentioned before, ILMS survey gathers opinionsfrom experts in order to enrich the relations included in ILMS database.
ILMS feedback focuses on gathering suggestions and advices to make thesystem better. Missing elements in the system can be reported through thismodule.
ILMS update is the access to enrich the data and methods database, it
makes possible to incorporate new developments into the database. This
module asks the user for the characteristics of the method following thestructure established for the database.
4. USING THE SYSTEM ADVISORILMS advisor helps user to analyze feasible assessment in the light of theaction to be taken and existing constraints. ILMS advisor is composed ofthree subunits, Unit 1 and Unit 2 focus on what should be done. And Unit 3
focuses on what can be done. The units can be used independently orsequentially. The process sequence is illustrated in Figure 7.

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Figure 7: ILMS functions and components
This first unit translates the user needs into realistic technicalinformation. Advisor Unit 1 asks for information about the landslide
management action and then provides the required information for thatspecific condition. Users are asked to select among options in order tomatch their interests or conditions in terms of the intended action. Afterdefining the characteristics that matches the action, an advising report isdisplayed. It suggests the type of assessment, spatial and temporal scale, andcategory of analysis according to the relations stored in ILMS knowledge
database.
The second unit assists the users to determine which method and data
is required to reach the information needs. Advisor 2 asks for information
about the type of assessment, scale, category and type of landslide. The
output report contains a list of methods that matches the selected options.
The third unit helps finding what information can be achieved taking
into account user constraints. ILMS prototype includes data availability as aconstraint. Therefore, Advisor 3 asks for information about the available
data and its characteristics in terms of scale and quantity. Through Advisor
3 users are able to establish what methods match with their data and what
methods might be used if the quality and amount of data are improved.
5. CONCLUSIONSThe landslide assessment process is complex, time consuming and costly; inorder to avoid wasting of resources in useless information a systematic
approach for planning landslide assessment is required. The key element toachieve this goal is a clear link between user requirements and existing
approaches in such a way that developments in modeling techniques are
kept up to date so that strategies for landslide management are defined morerationally.

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The proposed Integrated Landslide Management System –ILMSprovides the tool to link actions, methods and data and to encourage the useof scientific information in landslide management. ILMS prototype might
be considered as a platform for a systematic information management. It isalso starting point to manage and share experiences, and developments sothat it might help users to make informed-based decisions.
The system’s backbone, built around ILMS, is ready to accept new thedata, models, users and actions in such a way that it can be easily extended
to take into account new developments and the dynamics of requirements.
This prototype provides a framework to be customized for others
fields related to information management.
REFERENCES
Aleoti P. and Chowdhury.R. 1999. Landslide hazard assessment: summary
review and new perspectives. Bull Eng Geol Env, 58:167_184.
Kim, J. 2007. Efficiency of critical incident management systems:
Instrument development and validation. Decision Support System,
44:235-250.
MA. 2005. Global assessment reports. Scenarios assessment. millennium
ecosystem assessment. Technical Report 2, Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment Scenarios Working Group.
Mussi, S. 2002. Sequential decision-theoretic models and expert systems.
Expert System, 19(2).
Varnes, D. 1984. Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principle andpractice. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization.
Wold R. and Jochim C. 1989. Landslide Loss Reduction: A guide for stateand local government planning. Number Earthquake hazards reduction
series 52. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

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DEFENSE AGAINST INTENTIONALATTACKS: FRAMEWORK FOR
MODELING AND SIMULATIONJING ZHANG, SHIFEI SHEN, RUI YANG and JIANHONG WU
Department of Engineering Physics,
Center for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, China
jing-zhang05@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Intentional attacks by human have been a worldwide catastrophe risk
and threaten public safety. As a typical case of this disaster, terrorism events
not only cause casualties and economic damage, but also change thenational security and the way governments function. Different from natural
disasters and accidents caused by human error, intentional attacks arerational behaviors of people. The existence of dynamic interactions between
defenders and attackers corresponds to the strategic risk. This paper studies
the characteristics of decision-making in strategic risk and allocation thelimited resources optimally for mitigating the strategic risk. A framework forstudying the defense and response against intentional attacks is presented.
Game-theoretic resource allocation modeling and agent-based simulation
are described. Different types of target relationship are also discussed. The
research results could provide decision-making support for thecounter-terrorism defense, emergency rescue operation and hazard
mitigation.
Keywords: man-made emergency; resource allocation; strategic risk;
decision-making modeling; agent-based simulation

1.

INTRODUCTION

Intentional attacks, especially terrorism events, aiming at against the public
for political, religious, or ideological reasons, probably cause great loss ofproperty and lots of victims. Recent terrorist attacks like the 9.11 attack andthe 3.11 Madrid bombing had made the public and the government quite
aware of the risk of man-made emergencies. More attention has been put on
how to defense and response against the attacks with limited resources.
One basic feature of intentional attacks is the conflict between theattackers and defenders. The two adversaries, as players of defense game,279

October 2008, Beijing, China

have to estimate the opponent’s strategy and choose own advantaged actions
against this strategy. The attackers rationally choose the most unguarded one
among lots of potential buildings or dense population as the target;
correspondingly, the defenders will allocate the limited security resources
based on the available information about the possible attacks. The result of
the interactive decision-making depends on the decisions of both sides.
Terrorism risk represents as a function of the expected consequencesof attacks, taking into account the likelihood that attacks occur and that they
are successful is attempted (Willis, 2007). Because of the rational behaviorof attacker, intentional attack risk is a kind of strategic risk that thelikelihood of attack against a specific target depends on the consequence of
the attack and the security vulnerability of all the potential targets. This kindrisk is considered dynamic during the interactions of the attackers anddefenders. To effectively allocate limited resources among potential targets
to reduce the total strategic risk, it’s useful to model the interactive
decision-making between attacker and defender, and the relationshipbetween targets should also be discussed.
The effort to allocate resources based on terrorism risk has been limit
until recently. Several progresses have been made on the research of
terrorism insurance and risk management. Garrick et al (2004) developed amethodology for terrorism risk assessment. The process includes the threat
understanding, vulnerability understanding and risk analysis and mitigation.
McGill et al (2007) set up a framework for critical asset assessment, which
includes five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality
assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment,
and benefit-cost analysis. Another methodology for regional terrorism risk
assessment was developed by Willis and LaTourrette (2008), using theprobabilistic terrorism risk model to estimate the overall risk from terrorist
attacks in the U.S. and providing advices for counter-terrorism fund.
Researches up to now most focus on a critical asset or cities which
considered independent, usually estimating risk in a probabilistic way,
ignoring the interactive decision-making process of the attacker anddefender.
In this paper, a framework for studying the defense and response
against intentional attacks is presented. Game-theoretic defense modeling is
described in section 2. To better understand the interactions of different
kinds, different types of relationship among potential targets are discussed in
section 3, which can help the defender to distribute security resourcesamong these targets. The need for incorporating agent-based modeling andsimulation is described in section 4. Conclusions of this work are presented
in section 5.

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2.

FRAMEWORK FOR DEFENSE MODELINGThe process of defense against intentional attack like terrorism can bestudied in 3 phases as follows:� Depending on the game between the attackers and defenders, aproactive allocation of the limited defensive resources (forexample, guard and equipment) among all the potential targets
should be performed;
� When attack occurs, defender distributes the emergency resources
such as first responders (police, fire and ambulance) to theaffected targets;� During the emergency response, the remained resources should be
relocated to cover all the potential targets have not been attacked
yet to mitigate attack cascade risk.
A framework for modeling the defense against intentional attacks isshown in Figure 1. The core issue is that the defender should distributelimited defensive and emergency resources among or covering all thepotential targets for preventing and responding to the possible attacks.
LimitedResources

Target RelationshipResource Relocation

Security
Vulnerability

Threat Data

Coverage ModelingNo

Target PhysicalVulnerability

TargetAttractiveness

Consequence
Assessment

ThreatLikelihood

Decision-making Objective
Analysis

Payoff Profile

Yes

Attack Cascade
Risk?

Response Time

Emergency
Response

Decision-making Objective
Analysis

Order of Play andInformation
Game-theoretic Modeling

Resource Supply and
DemandResource Allocation

Event

Equilibrium

Figure 1: The framework of defense modeling

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October 2008, Beijing, China

2.1 Game-theoretic Modeling for Allocating Defensive Resources
A proactive defensive allocation aims to reduce the total risk of all thepotential targets. As mentioned above, the intention attack risk is a strategicand dynamic risk depending on the two plays’ decisions. For a specifictarget, this strategic risk is a function of threat (possibility of being attacked),security vulnerability (probability of adversary success for a given attack)and consequence (the result of damage). The consequence depends on thephysical vulnerability of the target, which represents the damage may becaused by attack so differs from the security vulnerability. The Threat
likelihood is determined by both the security vulnerability and consequence.
Traditional methodologies such as deterministic and probabilistic
decision-making theories are not adequate for the strategic risk mitigation in
intentional attacks because they are unable to handle the interaction between
the two players of the game. Instead, game theory provides a nature way toaddress this problem. Game theory studies how a rational player choosing
his actions, while the strategic interactions exists among the players(Osborne, 2005). In this problem, attacker and defender play games with
opposing objects like loss of lives and economy, social effect, etc. Attacker
chooses target and decides the strength of the attack, while defender makesa proactive distribution of defensive resources to minimize the loss. Theinteraction of the two players’ decisions determines the Security
Vulnerability of target so affecting the consequence of a given attack.
Several game-theoretic models for allocating defensive resources havebeen developed. Major (2002) developed a complete information zero-sum
game model for the situation that attacker and defender make decision at thesame time. Kardes and Hall (2005) discussed repeated game between
attacker and defender. Bier (2007) discussed the situation that attackers may
be able to observe the defenses and revise their attack strategies accordingly.
Powell (2007) developed a signaling game because defenders are likely tohave private information about the vulnerability of the targets they aretrying to protect.
2.2 Emergency Resources Location and Relocation
Once the attack occurs, it’s important to decide how to distribute theemergency resources to different affected targets for a best relief of thedisaster. In some cases, there may be the shortage of emergency resources atthe beginning of response so that the affected targets have to compete for thelimited resources. In this situation, a game will be played among thesetargets. Meanwhile, there are multiple decision-making objectives should beachieved in a tradeoff way for resource distribution. It requires us to model
the emergency resource distribution problem combining game theory withmulti-objective optimization. In addition, there may be multiple supplies in282

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different locations, so the transportation and accessibility under disasteramong the supplies and demands should also be considered. The shortage ofresources and transportation delay may weaken the relief efficiency soincrease the Consequence of the attack, thus increasing the strategic risk.
Some works discussed the game among targets. Heal and Kunreuther(2007) discussed the defense against terrorism as a game among defense
agents.
Since the emergency resources has been located and distributed to theattacked targets, there may be some potential target left uncovered. It’s
necessary to relocate the spare resources to cover the most demands.

3.

RELATIONSHIP OF TARGETS

Since the connection of targets and potential competition for scarce
resources, the strategic risk of each target is not independent with others.
Three basic types of relations are defined here: Exclusive, Sharing andRelated. The exclusive relation means that if we strengthen the defense of
one target, the risk of the other one will increase. Buildings compete for
guards are of this type. The sharing relation means that if the defense of one
target is strengthened, the risk of the other will also be reduced. One
example is railway stations that are connected by railways. The related typeis a weaker relationship of interdependence. Targets are related in manners
that are neither fully in exclusive nor fully in sharing. By these types ofrelations, multiple targets can form a network of risk transfer orinterdependence. In this framework, different target relationships will leads
to different defensive resource allocation plans.

Figure 2: Relationship of targets leading to risk interdependence

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4.

AGENT-BASED SIMULATION

Agent-based modeling is a powerful technique to simulate autonomous
agents capable to make decisions interacting with each other. It’s helpful toincorporating this technique to better understand the strategic interactions
between the attacker and defender. Agent-based modeling can not only
provide a way to verify the game-theoretic models developed above, butalso helps to solve the mathematical models in a distributed way that can beeasily performed by computer.
To develop a gaming agent model, there are two steps: defining theroles of attack agents and defense agents and modeling different types of
agents by set their objectives and rules for interaction. The development canbe done on common agent-model development toolkits.
The game in the framework could be modeled in 3 types:
� Static game
� By simulating the static game between attacker and defender,“what-if” scenarios are provided to test what is the best defense
resource allocation before attacks.
� Dynamic game� The strategic risk determines the strategies of resource allocation
by defender. However, strategic adversaries probably movesequentially so the attacker’s awareness of defensive resource
allocation plans and the possible delay of emergency response
will affect the strategic risk as a feedback. By simulating the
dynamic game, the effect of this feedback can be discussed.
� Evolutionary game
Attacker and defender are considered as two individuals with bounded
rationality who only knows limited information about the other as in the realworld. They can adjust their strategies by learning through repeated games
to finally reach or approach the best solution.

5.

CONCLUSIONSAs mentioned above, traditional risk analysis is not likely to be sufficient toanalyze the intentional attack risk, since it doesn’t take into account rational
attacker’s response to the defense strategies that defenders will take. This
paper presents a framework for studying the defense and response of
intentional attacks based on game-theoretic models and multi-objective
optimization, to capture the strategic interactions between attacker anddefender and the competition for scarce resources among targets. Different
types of relationship of targets are defined and discussed. In the future,agent-based modeling and simulation should be incorporated to better
understand these interactions, and provide a platform to perform the analysis

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more easily and extensible by computer.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research is supported by “11th Five-Year Plan” National Scientific andTechnological Supporting Project-“Key Technical Standards Project”(2006BAK04A08)

REFERENCE
Bier V. M., 2007. Choosing what to protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation
against an Unknown Attacker. Risk Analysis, 27(3), 607-620.
Garrick B. J., Hall J. E., Kilger M., McDonald J. C., O’Toole T., Probst P. S.,
Parker E. R., Rosenthal R., Trivelpiece A. W., Van Arsdale L. A.,
Zebroski E. L., 2004. Confronting the risks of terrorism: making theright decisions. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 86(2),129-176.
Heal G., Kunreuther H., 2007. Modeling Interdependent Risks. Risk
Analysis, 27(3), 621-634.
Kardes E., Hall R., 2005. Survey of Literature on Strategic Decision Making
in the Presence of Adversaries. Report of Center for Risk andEconomic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern
California.
Major J. A., 2002. Advanced Techniques for Modeling Terrorism Risk. The
Journal of Risk Finance, 4(1), 15-24.
McGill W. L., Ayyub B. M., Kaminskiy M., 2007. Risk Analysis for Critical
Asset Protection. Risk Analysis, 27(5), 1265-1281.
Osborne M. J, 2005. An introduction to game theory. Shanghai Universityof Finance & Economics Press.
Powell R., 2007. Allocating Defensive Resources with Private Information
about Vulnerability. American Political Science Review, 101(4),799-809.
Willis H. H., 2007. Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk.
Risk Analysis, 27(3), 597-606.
Willis H. H., LaTourrette T., 2008. Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk
Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to theWestern Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment. Risk
Analysis, 28(2), 325-339.

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A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR ANALYSINGIMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGESON COASTAL ZONE SYSTEMS
DUSHMANTA DUTTA, WENDY WRIGHT and SAMUEL ADELOJU
School of Applied Sciences and Engineering,
Monash University, Australia
dushmanta.dutta@sci.moanash.edu.au
ABSTRACTIn recent years, there has been an increasing concern, particularly
with the growing population, rapid urbanization and industrial
developments in coastal areas of Asia Pacific region that the current
management practices adopted in most of these countries are unsustainable(Hong et al., 2002). It has been realized that the rapid developments,
extraction or manipulation of resources cannot exceed the sustainable limits
without compromising the ecological integrity of the coastal ecosystems.
This has now led to a growing concern that if the current trend of growthand exploitation continues, it would result in adverse effects on social,economic and environmental well-being in coastal zones. An holistic
approach (that combines physical modelling, vulnerability assessment withtriple bottom line and life cycle analysis principles and multi-criteria
decision making (MCDM) tools) to coastal zone management is needed toresolve the conflicting demands of society for products and services, taking
into account both current and future interests.
The paper presents an overview of an innovative integrated tool
developed as a part of an on-going project for accurately capturing changes
in hydro-biogeochemical processes in coastal zone systems in the context ofclimate change and anthropogenic forcing for identifying sound metrics forassessment of impacts of these changes and for examining long-term
adaptation and mitigation measures for sustainable management. The toolcomprises three major components: integrated hydro-biogeochemical model,
Impact Assessment and MCDM tools. The tool has been applied in six casestudy areas in six countries of the Asia-Pacific region for climate change
impact analysis.
1. INTRODUCTION
Many studies have predicted a strong impact of the global warming on meansea level (MSL) and its adverse effects on coastal zones around the world(Jones, 2001; Jansson, et al., 2003; McInnes et al., 2003; Cacamise et al.,2005; Carton et al., 2005). The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that the
global MSL may rise as much as 88 cm by the end of the 21st century (IPPC,

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2001) (Figure 1). According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
IPPC, Global MSL rise in the second half of the 20th century was estimatedas 1.8 ± 0.3 mm yr–1, which is consistent with the TAR’s estimate of 1.5 ±0.5 mm yr–1 for the 20th century (IPCC, 2007). Moreover, because of thethermal inertia of the oceans, the global mean temperature will probably
increase beyond 2100 and sea level will continue to rise at a similar rate in
the future centuries, even if greenhouse gas concentration were stabilized bythen (Nicholls, 2002; Burroughs, 2003; Antonov et al., 2005).
Approximately 20% of the global population lives within 30 km of coastal
areas and the number is expected to become double by 2025 (Cohen et al.,
1997; Hinrichsen, 1998). The sea level rise will have wide ranging effects
on coastal population and ecosystem, such as saline water intrusion, erosionof shorelines, amplified intensity and frequency of coastal flood inundation,etc. (Srivastava, 1998; Reeve, 1998; Sherif & Singh, 1999; van der Meji &Minnema, 1999; Kim et al., 2005). It is estimated that a sea-level rise of one
meter could displace some 70 million people in both Bangladesh and China(Burroughs, 2003).
Range in 2100
All SRES envelope including
land-ice uncertainty
Several Models all
SRES envelope
Model average all
SRES envelope

Figure 1: Global average sea level rise (1990-2100) (Church et al., 2001)
In recent years, there has been an increasing concern, particularly withthe growing population, rapid urbanization and industrial developments incoastal areas of Asia Pacific region that the current management practices
adopted in most of these countries are unsustainable (Hong et al., 2002). It
has been realized that the rapid developments, extraction or manipulation of
resources cannot exceed the sustainable limits without compromising theecological integrity of the coastal ecosystems. This has now led to a
growing concern that if the current trend of growth and exploitation
continues, it would result in adverse effects on social, economic andenvironmental well-being in coastal zones. The extents of these
consequences are further exacerbated by the adverse impacts being incurredfrom global climate change including extreme climatic events and sea level
rises (IPCC CZMS, 1992; Titus, 1998; IPCC, 2001; Mitchell et al., 2000;
Dutta et al., 2005).
For comprehensive understanding the changes in the physicalprocesses due to combined effects of climate and human-induced changes, aspatially distributed process-based integrated approach, is essential, which
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models the different inter-connected processes at appropriate spatiotemporal resolutions (Gordon et al., 1996; Hong et al., 2002; Nakayama etal., 2004). An holistic approach (that combines physical modelling,
vulnerability assessment with TBL and LCA principles and MCDM tools)
to coastal zone management is needed to resolve the conflicting demands ofsociety for products and services, taking into account both current andfuture interests (Post & Lundin, 1996; Neumann and Livesay, 2001; Walsh,
2004; APN, 2005; Dutta et al., 2005). Agenda 21 and in particular its
Chapter 17 'Protection of The Oceans' reaffirmed this need. Given thesescenarios, the real challenge in achieving optimal sustainable management
strategy in coastal zones relies on the ability to design, develop andimplement an integrated management program that not only maximizes
benefit to society and economy based on accurate understanding of the
impacts of changes in physical processes, but that also ensures that theecosystems are adequately protected or preserved.
In response to the need for sustainable management practices, several
developed countries have developed and/or implemented sustainable coastalzone management strategies (Kay and Adler, 1999; Thom, 2002; Walsh,2004). The developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, lacking behindin this front, have revealed some knowledge and approach gaps, thus
presenting the opportunity to break new ground on subsequent strategies.
The strategies should be the vehicle in facilitating Integrated Coastal Zone
Management (ICZM) principles, but how this can be done is still unclear
and yet to be demonstrated (Clark, 1992; Post and Lundin, 1996; Wlash,2004).
The paper presents the overview of an on-going research project
designed to develop an innovative integrated tool for accurately capturingchanges in hydro-biogeochemical processes in coastal zone systems in thecontext of climate change and anthropogenic forcing, for identifying soundmetrics for assessment of impacts of these changes and for examining longterm adaptation and mitigation measures for sustainable management. The
main objective of the project, sponsored by the Asia Pacific Network for
Global Change Research, is to develop a more holistic approach and tool toapply Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) principles to the coastal zone systems incross-cutting issues in the Asia Pacific region. In doing so, this project has
intended to overcome the limitations of the existing fragmental approaches
for evaluating more complex and interrelated biogeochemical and physicalprocesses in coastal zones that include nutrient flux, salinity, floods, erosion
and sedimentation and their impacts on society, economy and environment.
To achieve these goals, the project has focused on selected coastal zones
that have all of these attributes in six countries of the Asia Pacific region. A
major expected outcome of the project is to develop multi-criteria decisionmaking and fuzzy preference models that will support broad stakeholders’engagement in regional coastal zone sustainable management strategy.
2. PROJECT FRAMEWORKA comprehensive framework, as shown Figure 2, has been devised to
implement the project including the development of the integrated tool and

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October 2008, Beijing, China

its applications in the selected coastal areas. The project has taken asystematic approach for developing the integrated assessment tool and its
implementation to achieve its objectives. The project has been carried out infive phases as follows:� Phase 1: Planning� Phase 2: Data and Information Collation
� Phase 3: Development of Integrated Assessment Tool� Phase 4: Scenario analysis
� Phase 5: Recommendations report, awareness campaign andcapacity building

Figure 2: Project Framework
Six countries of the Asia-Pacific regions have been involved in thisproject, namely: Australia, Bangladesh, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand andVietnam, with at least one collaborating researcher from each country as acore member in the project team. After conducting a series of consultations
with the stakeholders of each of the member countries through the Project
Reference Groups, which was established at the very beginning of the
project, the following coastal areas have been identified as the case study
areas for application of the integrated tool.
1. Gippsland Lakes Area (Australia)
2. Gorai River Basin (Bangladesh)
3. Kushiro Wetland Area (Japan)
4. Colombo (Sri Lanka)
5. Bangkok and Chao Phraya Delta (Thailand)

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6. Nam Dinh Coast (Vietnam)
The holistic tool includes three major components: i) Process model(PM), ii) Impact Assessment Tool (IAT), and iii) a Multi-Criteria Decision
Making and Support System (MCDMSS). The Process model is used tosimulate hydro-biogeochemical processes in coastal zone systems in thecontext of climate change and anthropogenic forcing. The impact analysis
model, which included a series of response functions, is used for assessmentof impacts of these changes to economy, society and environment. The
concept of the integrated tool is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Project Methodologyi) Process model (PM):An integrated process model has been built on existing and newscientific knowledge of different physical processes in coastal zone systems
including hydrological and biogeochemical processes and their exchange
through water and soil and pathways in the river catchment and coastal sea
interactions for scientific understanding of changes in these processes due tocombined effects of global climate change and anthropogenic developments

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October 2008, Beijing, China(Gordon et al., 1996, Hong et al., 2002; Nakayama et al., 2004; Garnier etal., 2005; Bhattarai and Dutta, 2005; Nakayama, K., 2005; Dutta et al.,2007). An example of the flood inundation modelling by the integrated
model under sea level rise conditions (rise of sea level) in Chao Phraya delta
including Bangkok is shown in Figure 4.

Gulf of Thailan dGu lf of Th aila ndGulf of Tha iland

Gulf of Th ailand

Figure 4: Simulated flood inundation maps due to sea level rise by 14 cm(2025), 32 cm (2050), 58cm (2075), and 88 cm (2100)ii) Impact Assessment Tool (IAT):
A brainstorming workshop was held last year among the project
members of the six countries to indentify the most important water quantityand quality parameters associated with coastal zone flooding and can be
simulated by the process-based model and the social, economic andenvironmental (TBL) sectors/issues that could be impacted by theseparameters for developing a set of criteria, indicators and appropriate
response functions relating to the changes in the simulated parameters due
to climatic and anthropogenic changes in the selected coastal areas (Belfiore,
2003). Table 1 shows the modelling parameters and Table 2 shows thesectors identified for impact analysis.
A set of questions has been designed to obtain feedback from experts
and stakeholders to develop a series of response functions to assess theimpacts of changes in hydro-biogeochemical processes in coastal zone
systems in the context of climate change and anthropogenic forcing on
various social, economic and environmental issues (TBL issues) in coastal
areas. The main purposes of the questionnaire survey were:� To assist with development of response functions
� Essentially, a survey of stakeholders to find
- which issues (assets) they are most concerned about- Whether intensity of flood parameters affects which issues
they are most concerned about

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Table 1: Water quantity and quality parameters to be modelled by processbased model under climatic change conditions
Water Quantity (Flood)
Depth, Duration, Velocity,
Frequency

Water Quality
Nutrients (TN, NO2, NO3, TP, PO4), Salinity,
Turbidity

Table 2: Sectors/issues in Coastal areas identified for climate change
impact analysis
Infrastructure

Drainage

Roads
Railways
Ports & Harbours
Dykes
Coast protection structure
Buildings
Potable water
Water quality
ErosionTourism
Population

Landuse planning
Residential
Non-residential

Short-term displacement
Long-term resettlement

Agriculture
Fishery
Fish habitat/distribution
Wetland health

ExtentFlora biodiversity (no. of veg. species)
Fauna biodiversity (no. of bird species)

Mangrovesiii) Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Support System(MCDMSS):A set of criteria and indicators have been developed representingsocial, economic and environmental sustainability of coastal zone systems.
Fuzzy Preference modelling with multi-objective optimisation approach isused to model the stakeholders’ preferences and expectations in the decisionappraisal process (Doloi and Jaafari, 2002; Manivong et al., 2004). Using
these criteria and indicators, a multi-criteria decision making system has
been established for strategic planning, policy development andenhancement and pathways for sustainable management of coastal zones.

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3. CONCLUDING REMARKSThe paper has introduced an innovative and integrated tool with LCA and
TBL principles to the coastal zone systems in cross-cutting issues forsustainable management under climatic and anthropogenic changes. The
tool has been developed by integrating existing and new scientificknowledge on hydro-biogeochemical process modelling, triple bottom line
(TBL) analysis, multi-criteria decision making and fuzzy preference
modeling. The tool is currently being applied in six case study areas fromsix different countries in the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected that the tool
will help decision makers to apply Life Cycle Analysis and TBL principles
to develop pathways and potential coping mechanisms for sustainable
management of coastal zone systems in the Asia Pacific region.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the
Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) for this project.
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RESEARCHES AND APPLICATIONS OF
LAND USE PLANNING BASED ON RISKANALYSISCAO ZHENG, LIU MAO and LI QINGSHUI, MU QING
Research Center of Urban Public Safety, Nankai University, China
nkcz5208@mail.nankai.edu.cn
ABSTRACTThe establishments that produce, store and use kinds of inflammable,
explosive or toxic materials may induce accidents, such as fire, explosion or
poisonous gas dispersion etc. Once these accidents occur, the impacts often
go beyond establishments’ borders, causing a number of casualties andsevere property losses. If accident occurred in urban area or the area where
population is large, the consequences will be more serious.
Therefore, based on risk analysis in the vicinity of theseestablishments, there is a need to (i) locate these establishments
appropriately and (ii) conduct land use planning. For example which
district can be residential area and which district of population density
should be restricted etc, thus these measures can balance the utility of land
use and risk. On one hand, there is the attempt to exploit the land in the best
possible way, on the other to avoid major urban public safety risk.
Consulting advanced experience that obtained from land use planningin European countries, this paper studies on:(i) hazardous establishment location based on risk index;(ii)Oand use planning based on consequence-probability; and(iii) land use planning based on individual risk.
Above three approaches’ frameworks and procedures were determined andapplied to a proposed LNG station.
Firstly, the authors confirm risk index (RI) for site selection, and findthat the risk is too high if it does not change the current situation ofsurrounding land use. Therefore, corresponding adjustments must be madeto alter the status.
Secondly, adjusting schemes for land use are made by applying
individual risk-based and accident consequences-based methods. Based on
the consequences-based method, we use death probability that
corresponding to 1% and irreversible health effects probability that
corresponding to 50%, and risk zones are divided according to thresholds
297

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaof these two probabilities. On the basis of individual risk-based method andaccording to different individual risk, that is 10-5, 10-6 and 3×10-7, we divide
risk zones. The two methods show the same outcomes: two settlements andone plant around the LNG reserve need relocate.
The three methods are feasible when we consider major projects'
location and their surrounding buildings or establishments' layout.

1.

INTRODUCTION

The establishments that produce, store and use kinds of inflammable,
explosive and poisonous chemicals may cause severe fire, explosion andtoxic gas diffusion, as a result of contrived, installation, management andenvironment factors by intriguing leakage. Once such accidents happen, it
always beyond the establishments’ border and lead to casualty and property
loss. We can take Mexico oil company’s liquefied petroleum storages (ortransportation stations) explosion incident as an example. Fireball’s
diameter was up to 360 meters, 4 round and 44 horizontal storage tanks
were all destroyed, the equipment in the tank/transfer station were almost
completely destroyed either. It affected the buildings about 1200 meters
around the plant, causing the historic tragedy of 650 residents’ death, 60,001
be injured and nearly 31,000 people become homeless. To prevent theoccurrence of such major casualties, we need conduct reasonable dangerous
facilities’ locations and surrounding land use planning (LUP), including i)
reasonable location of dangerous establishments, and ii) which part of
district can be the residential area, which part can be the commercial area
and where the population density should be restricted etc. Thus we canbalance the relationship between land effectiveness and risk. In that mean,
land can be applied in the maximal degree and will not lead to a major urban
public safety risk.
At present, according to the SEVESO-II Directive’s requirement,
several countries in Europe introduce risk analysis into LUP. U.K,
Netherlands, France and Germany have set up mature process of LUP. South
Europe such as Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal follow their steps, whileother countries such as Denmark will set up process and standard of LUP.
Based on their advanced experience, there are three methods: i)location estimate method based on risk index (RI), ii) LUP method based onconsequence’s happening probability, and iii) LUP method based on
individual risk can be used for LUP which involves dangerous
establishments.

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2. LOCATION ESTIMATE METHOD BASED ON RISK INDEX (RI)
Location estimate method based on risk index (RI) simply quantifies
location’s risk, which was proposed by Health& Safety Executive. Thismethod defines a new risk index (RI).If we can get F/N curve, the RI can becalculated exactly; if not, it also can be calculated approximately. According
to risk acceptable standards of HSE’s ALARP guidelines, if the RI is lower
than the standards, then the risk is reasonable and the location of dangerous
facilities too. On the contrary, the dangerous facilities need appropriate
adjustments or re-location. General steps are shown in Figure 1.
Lower than standard;
Location is reasonable

Compare to acceptable risk

Calculation of RI

level

Higher thanstandard

LUP adjustments
surrounding location
Re-location

Figure 1: General steps of location estimate method based on risk RI
2.1 Calculation of RI
When dangerous facilities’ F/N curve is known, HSE’s definition ofrisk integral parameters is:
N max

RI � � f ( N )Na

(1)
Here N is the number of casualties; f (N) is the frequency of casualties(chances per million per year, cpm /a); a demonstrates the degree ofaversion to risk, which is a constant between 1 and 3. The degree ofaversion to risk increases with the value of a.
However, when F/N curve is difficult to get as a result of unknown
operation of equipment and security measures, we need estimate RI. We
assume that dangerous facilities happen the most serious incidents. That is
to say, these accidents cause the largest number of victims. Based on theassumption, we calculate RI approximately and denoted as ARI(Approximate RI).
Considering two kinds of cases while calculating ARI:
1) The most serious accident influence several directions, such as
fireballs, the explosion of a steam cloud, the ARI can be expressed as:
N �1

ARI � f ( N max ) N max [N max �1Na �1

� N �1 � N ]
a �1

max

(2)
Here, Nmax is the maximum number of people affected by the mostN �1

serious accident; f (Nmax ) (cpm·a-1) is the frequency of the accident that
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October 2008, Beijing, China

corresponding to Nmax.
2) The most serious accident influence single direction, which is aparticular direction, such as poisonous gas dispersion.
N max

2
ARI � f ( N max ) N max
� N a �2

(3)

N �1

Here, Nmax and f (Nmax ) are same as above.
The calculation steps of ARI are as follows:
According to expert’s judgments or
1 Identify most serious accident

similarhistoricalexperienceoffacilities
2 Evaluate accident’s impact

Applicationofappropriate

fire,

explosion or gas diffusion model
3 Confirm accident’s incidence

4 Confirm maximum number ofpeople in the accident’s
incidence, Nmax

6 Calculation of ARI

5 Confirm the frequency
corresponding to Nmax

Figure 2: Calculation steps of ARI
Following two points need be paid attention to when calculating ARI:
1) Determine accident’s incidence, the heat flux or overpressure
threshold at the affected areas border, or toxic concentration corresponding
to LD50 doses, which can cause the death of the 50 percent personnel.
2)When the most serious accident influence single direction, thefrequency of accident is the product of failure frequency of facilities,
probability of conditional clouds, combination probability of weather andwind speed, deviation parameters of wind rose map and population
distribution parameters.
Here:� MVOCS �
2 arctg ��� DTMVOCS � , POCC (Probability of Conditionali) POCC=360 �

Clouds), MVOCS (Maximum value of Cloud’s Semi-wide), DTMVOCS(Distance to MOCS).
ii) Combination probability of weather and wind speed is combinationof atmosphere stability and wind speed that can induce probability of mostserious accident.
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ICUS Report 31iii) Wind rose map is a tool for fire supervision department carry out
construction and examination work in accordance with national fire
protection technical specifications. It always be provided by local
meteorological department. If the wind rose map is consistent, then value of
deviation parameters is 1; if not, the wind cause the probability of windflows in the direction of most serious accident may large or small, then its
value is larger or less than 1 correspondingly. For example, its value is 0.8,
saying that the probability of wind flows in the direction of most serious
accident is 80% of the situation of no deviation.
iv) Population distribution parameters reflect whether a small
deviation in the direction of most serious accident causes significant changeon the number of affected people. If there will be no significant change, thenits value is equal to 1; if the number of people has significant changes in a
local area that far from affected region, then its value should be equal to 0.2.
In most cases, the value of the distribution population parameters should bethrough visual observation, and their value is equal to 0.5 under normal
circumstances.
2.2 Acceptable risk level

British Health and Safety Executive Board applies ALARP guidelines
and establishes ARI acceptable standard. As China has not yet establishes
our own. So we use it as a reference, as shown below.

ARI=500 000

intolerable area
Reasonableacceptable

ARI=2 000

Widely acceptable area

Figure 3: Acceptable risk level confirmed by ARIAs shown in Figure 3, ARI = 2,000 and 500,000 are dividing line ofwidely acceptable and reasonable area, acceptable and intolerable area. If
ARI less than 2,000, risk is acceptable, then the location is reasonable; if
ARI larger than 500,000, no matter what measures to be taken, risk areunacceptable, and the dangerous facilities should be re-located or proper
adjustments need be made on the surrounding land use. If ARI is between
2,000 and 500,000, the risk is acceptable and location of this facility isreasonable, but some adjustments need to be made on the surrounding landuse.

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3.

LUP BASED ON RISK-CONSEQUENCES’ PROBABILITY

The method based on risk-consequences’ probability bases on abundantaccident scenes. Evaluating the most serious accident scene, we divide risk
region according to the distance corresponding to 1% mortality rate and the
distance corresponding to irreversible health effects with a probability of
50%. Finally, land use planning and layout adjustments are made inaccordance with different risk regions’ functions.
3.1 The general process of risk-consequences-based land use planning

LUP based on risk-consequences’ probability is composed of four
modules:Module 1: Identify the referenced accident scene;
Module 2: The calculation of R1 and R2, where R1 is the distancecorresponding to 1% mortality rate under the condition of the occurrence ofaccident; R2 is the distance corresponding to irreversible health effects (forexample, severe burned, moderate injured etc.) with a probability of 50%.
Module 3: The division of risk region. We compare R1 and R2 under
accident scene, and identify R1max and R2max. Based on R1max and R2max, we
divide the risk region; andModule 4: Land use planning and layout adjustments.
The general process of this method can be seen in Figure 4.

Exposure dose V

Probability of variables

people P

Probability of harm toFire˖Heat radiation q
Explosion˖Super-pressureshock wave p0
Poisoning˖Toxic concentration C

probability of 50% of t
he distance R2

Scene nModule 1

Module 2

Module 3

According to the regional functions, we

Irreversible health effects

adjustments

distance R1

Calculate R1max and R2max

of death for 1% of themake land-use planning and layout

Corresponding probability

Compare R1 and R2 of every scene

Calculation R1 and R2 in all Scenes

Scene 3

嗫嗫嗫

Identify objects

Identify referenced scene

Scene 2

Divide risk region based on R1max and R2max

Scene 1Module 4

Figure 4: General process of land use planning based on risk
consequences’ probability
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3.2 Identify the referenced accident scene

The identification of referenced accident scene is mainly based on past
accidents and possible incidents’ analysis. Under general circumstances, forthe various risk facilities, we consider the following six major accident
scenes:Table 1: Summarization of referenced accident scene
Referenced accident scene

Facilities’ type

Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion

Liquefied combustible gas facilities are(BLEVE)

involved

Unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE)

Liquefied combustible gas facilities are
involved

Instant big rupture of container

Liquefied/ unliquefied poisonous gas
containers

Instant rupture of pipeline of big diameter

Poisonous facilities(Wall is used to resist
external and internal material damage to thereaction)

Large storage tanks catch fire; fixed roof

Inflammable liquid’s big storage tanks

storage tank of gas explosions; fireball andjet caused by the combustion due to splash
A huge amount of explosives explosion or

Facilities for storing or using explosives

explosion caused by reaction

3.3 The calculation of R1 and R2

After the accident scenes being identified, we should calculate R1 andR2 for risk region division.
Here we adopt 1% probability of death which corresponds to distanceR1 and its purpose is to prevent major accidents and limit the consequencesof accident; Irreversible health effects’ probability is 50% whichcorresponds to distance R2, and it is used to separate dangerous sources andregions that sensitive, fragile groups appear (such as schools and hospitals)
or dense population region.
The steps for calculation of R1 and R2 are shown in Figure 5.

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Probability of harm˄Percentage˅P
P is constantˈaccording to formula (4)ǃ(5) or (6)Probability variables Y

Y � k1 � k2 ln V ˈk1ˈk2 are probability factors
Fire˖ V � tq

4/3

Heat radiation q

Explosion˖ V � p 0 or V � J
Exposure dose V

Accident consequence modelSuper-pressure shockwavenPoisoning˖V � C t

p 0 or Impulse J

Calculationof R1ǃR2

Toxic concentration C

Figure 5: Steps for calculation of R1 and R2
In figure 5, t is exposure time(s); q is heat radiation intensity (W/m2);
p0 is maximum super-pressure shock wave (N/m2); J is impulse (N·s/m2); C
is toxic concentration (ppm); n is constant, which depends on different
substance.
The relationship between probability (or percentage)P and probabilityof variables Y is expressed in formula (1):P�� u2 �
1 Y �5exp� � � du2� ���
� 2�

(4)

We use formula (2) to transform probability (or percentage)P andprobability of variables Y in practice.
�Y �5
� | Y � 5 | ��P � 50 �1 �
erf �
��
2 ��
�
� |Y �5|(5)Here erf is the error function, which is the Gaussian distribution
integral, and subjects to the following relations:xerf ( x) � � e� t dt
0

2

(6)

When calculate R1 and R2, as long as probable accident scenes
may happen, we should calculate 6 scenes that mentioned above.
3.4 Confirm R1max and R2max

After calculating R1 and R2 in probable happening accident scenes, we
compare every R1 and R2, and then we get R1max and R2max. It is shown in
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Figure 6.
Accident scene 1: R1ǃR2
Max˄˅

嗫

Accident scene 2: R1ǃR2

Confirm R1max and R2max

Accident scene n: R1ǃR2

Figure 6: Confirm R1max and R2max
3.5 Division of risk region

R2m

ax

We consider fire and explosion’s impact area is circle, and it does notaffected by weather condition. On the contrary, toxic substance’s spill or
diffuse is well depended on weather condition. Owing to the uncertainty ofwind direction, we consider its impact area is circle, either. Thereafter, we
assume accident site as the center of the circle, R1max and R2max as radius,
and we define 3 risk regions: Z1, Z2 and Z3. This is shown in Figure 7.

R1max
Accident site

Z1
Z2
Z3

Figure 7: Division of risk regions
3.6 Land use in every risk region

In this step we consider land use planning in three risk region. From
HSE’s experience, we get Table 2.
Table 2:Land use planning in every risk region
Risk

Land use type

RegionZ1

Not allowed to build homes, public buildings and industrial plants

Z2

Allow smaller population density, other public buildings except high-risebuilding construction and outside buildings with more staff; when it meets
certain basic conditions, construction of industrial facilities are allowed. These
basic conditions are: ķ A small amount of emergency personnel; ĸIndustrial activities are compatible; Ĺ Workers can carry out emergency
training

Z3

There is no restrictions

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4. LUP BASED ON INDIVIDUAL RISKThe objective of this method is to prevent serious casualties and reduce
accident’s impact by using LUP. According to quantitative analysis ofindividual risk, we divide risk regions, which base on distances
corresponding to individual risk of 10-5, 10-6 and h10-7. Then layout andadjustments of land use are made in accordance with functions of every risk
region.
4.1 General steps of LUP based on individual risk

LUP based on individual risk is composed of 3 modules, as shown in
Figure 8.
Module 1: Quantitative analysis of individual risk;
Module 2: Division of risk regions;
Module 3: Layout and adjustments of LUP.

corresponding to different
distances
Scene nModule 2

According to the regional functions, weAnalysis of injury probability

make LUP and layout adjustments

Scene 3

嗫嗫嗫

Identify risk

Identify objects

scene

Confirm R1, R2, R3

Estimate probability of every

Calculation of individual risk

Scene 2Module 1

Divide risk region based on R1,R2,

Scene 1Module 3

Figure 8: General steps of LUP based on individual risk
4.2 Quantitative analysis of individual risk

Individual risk (IR) refers to possibility of one non-protective person
permanently stays in a particular place owing to injury being caused by
accident. Individual risk is relative to the distance from the risk source. The
nearer one is from the risk source, the greater of its individual risk, and viceversa. Individual risk is usually used in the form of risk contour on the map
intuitively, Figure 9 is a typical dangerous facilities’ individual risk contour
map.

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Dangerous facilities

1.0E-06
1.0E-07
1.0E-08

Figure 9: Individual risk contours of dangerous facilities
Quantitative analysis of individual risk in LUP includes 4 phases [3]:1) Identification of risk;
2) Analysis of accident’s probability;
3) Analysis of injury probability corresponding to different distances
4) Calculation of individual risk.
The calculation of individual risk usually uses the formula below [3]:IR � Pf � Pd / f(7)Here, Pf is probability of accident; Pd/f is injury probability of beingcaused by accident.
4.3 Division of risk regions

Division of risk regions depends on individual risk. We use risk
contour to divide Z1, Z2, and Z3 around dangerous facilities. There are twokinds of division of risk regions: 1) dangerous facilities can be seen as thetype of point or polygon; and 2) dangerous facilities are the type of lines, as
shown in Figure 10 and 11.
The value of individual risk decreases as three regions. The risk
contours from dangerous facilities’ critical distances are confirmed by thecalculation of quantitative analysis of individual risk.
Z3
Z2
Dangerous Facilities

Z1

Z2
Z3

Z1

Dangerous facilities

Z1
Z2
Z3

Figure 10: The type of point or polygon

Researches and Applications of Land Use Planning Based on Risk Analysis

Figure 11: The type of lines

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As a result China has yet not establishes LUP from the view of risk
and the standard of risk regions division are inconsistent, this paper
according to HSE’s LUP experience. Table 3 shows individual risk standardof different risk regions in LUP.

Table 3: Individual risk standards of risk regions based on HSE
Region Z1-5

Region Z3-6

˚10

IR of different regions

Region Z2

˚h10-7

˚10

4.4 LUP in every risk region
After dividing risk regions and according to three regions’ functions,layouts of LUP are made. Table 4 are HSE’s LUP types of every risk region.

Table 4: LUP types of every risk region
LUP types

Sensitive or big public

Region Z1

Region Z2-5-6

˄IR˚10 ˅˄IR˚10 ˅

˄IR˚h10-7˅

Not allowed

No more than 25

Need detailed( school, hospital, coliseum)
Habitation area˄houses,

Region Z3

estimate
No more thanNo more than 75

AllowedNo more than 100

No more than 300

AllowedAllowedAllowedAllowedhotels, resort villages˅
Public gathering places(large-scale retail stores,
community and leisurevenues)Low population density ofsmall factories, open
playground

5. LUP OF PROPOSED LNG STORAGE RESERVE
We plan a proposed LNG storage, which locates in the site A with a capacityof 100,000 cubic meters that is composed of two 50,000 cubic meters of
LNG storage tanks. According to the providing documents, the storage site
A is from the settlements B 230 meters in the east, from the industrial plant
180 meters in the south-east, from the settlements C 600 meters in the southwith mountain barrier in the middle, from the golf course 700 meters in thewest with mountain barrier in the middle, from settlements D 400 meters in
the north-west. There are 300 people in area B, 100 workers in C, and 400
habitants in D. It is shown in Figure 12.

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Golf Course

Settlements D

Settlements B

Site A
LNG tank

Industrial plant

Settlements C

Figure 12: The location of LNG reserve and its surrounding layout
5.1 Analysis of possible accident scenes
The possible accident scenes of LNG storage reserve are analyzed byevent tree, as shown below:
Dangerous states Ignite immediately?

Delay Ignite?

Explode?

Ignite immediately

Tank
L

Yes
No

Cloud dispersion

leakagN

Jet fire
Delay Ignite

Continuous leakage

Non-ignite

Disastrous

Delay Ignite
Cloud dispersion

Flash fire

UVCE
Yes

Instantaneous

UVCE

Dispersion

Ignite immediately

G

Accident

Non-ignite

No

UVCE
Flash fire
Dispersion

Figure 13: Possible accident scenes of LNG tank’s leakage(Notes: UVCE refers to Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion)
As can be seen from the analysis of Figure 13, LNG storage reserve’s
fire or explosive accidents include jet fire, flash fire, cloud explosion and
BLEVE. Because of enormous storage capacity of LNG reserves, if the tankruptures and leads to LNG storage’s instantaneous leakage, then the fire,
explosion will be much more serious and much greater than continuous
leakage. In addition, flash fire is a non-explosive combustion process, andoften concealed by the vapor cloud explosion. So we select the case of LNG
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October 2008, Beijing, China

storage tank’s overall rupture, which leads to BLEVE and vapor cloud
explosion and causes the most serious consequence.

5.2 RI Calculation of LNG storage reserve
The extreme case is LNG tank’s overall rupture and all leaked LNG
causes the formation of BLEVE fireball. As for BLEVE, the main harm isheat radiation. For a normal adult, heat radiation’s impact is:�Y � �36.38 � 2.56 ln tq

4/3

�

(8)

Here, Y is probability variable; q is heat radiation flux taken over by
one’s body (W/m2); t is exposure time in the heat radiation (s). In this case,fireball’s duration time is 14.72s. Here, we define Y as 5 and its
corresponding death probability is 50%, exposure time in heat radiation
equals to fireball’s duration time (t). Heat flux threshold corresponding todeath probability of 50% is 23786W/m2 (q). The corresponding distance is344.5m that is calculated by the BLEVE’s solid flame model.
Main harm of vapor cloud explosion is the over-pressure while
exploding. The over-pressure often causes bleeding of lung and even death.
It is calculated by the formula below.

Y � �77.91 � 6.91ln P0(9)Here, Y is probability variable; P0 is over-pressure (Pa). We define Y
as 5 and its over-pressure threshold is P0=161251Pa that corresponds to 50%
death probability. The corresponding distance based on vapor cloud
explosion is 45m that is calculated by the TNT equal model.
As can be seen from the distances of two accidents, BLEVE is much
more serious than vapor cloud explosion. Therefore, the most serious
accident’s incidence is the circle with the radius of 344.5 meters, as shownin Figure 14.
Golf Course

Settlements D

Site A

Settlements B

LNG tank
Industrial plant

Settlements C

Figure 14: Incidence of BLEVE

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The settlements B and industrial plant are both influenced by the
BLEVE, and the number of affected people is 400. That is to say Nmax
equals to 400. The frequency of BLEVE caused by LNG storage reserve is
10 cpm/a, and thus f (Nmax) equals to 10 cpm/a.
As BLEVE influences several directions, then ARI is 139869
according to formula (1). Comparing to risk acceptable standard shown in
Figure 3 of section 2.2, RI is acceptable. Thereafter, LNG reserve can belocated in site A. But some proper adjustments should be made on its
surrounding land use, and to reduce risk as much as possible.

5.3 Calculation based on R1 and R2 in planning
Based on the consequences calculated by BLEVE and vapor cloud
explosion, BLEVE is much more serious. Considering extreme cases, we
assume a storage tank’s overall rupture and it results in all LNG leakage andcauses BLEVE.
5.3.1 Calculation of R1 and R2 under the scene of BLEVE
We suppose spilled LNG all involved in the formation of BLEVE
fireball. LNG density � = 0.7 kg / m3. Irreversible health effects were set as
first-degree burn.
(1) Calculation of R1ˈsee Table 5Ǆ

Table 5: Steps for calculating R1
1

Probability of death˄percentage˅P˄%˅

Probability variables Y

2.67

Relationship between Y and VY � �36.38 � 2.56 ln V

Relationship between V and q

V= tq

4 / 3 [7]12.27

Corresponding heat radiation2

intensity q˄kW/m ˅
Accident consequences model

Three dimensional flame model

Corresponding distance R1

493.3 m(2) Calculation of R2ˈsee Table 6Ǆ

Table 6: Steps for calculating R2
50

first-degree burn probability
˄percentage˅P˄%˅

Probability variables Y

5

Relationship between Y and VY � �39.83� 3.0186lnV

Relationship between V and q
Corresponding heat radiation

Researches and Applications of Land Use Planning Based on Risk Analysis

V= tq

4/3

9.067

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October 2008, Beijing, China
intensity q˄kW/m2˅
Accident consequences model

Three dimensional flame model

Corresponding distance R2

578 m

5.3.2 Division of risk region Z1, Z2 and Z3
We supposed storage site as the center of circle, R1max=493.3m andR2max=578m as radius respectively, then we confirmed 3 risk region: Z1, Z2
and Z3, see Figure 15.
Golf Course

Settlements D

Site A

Settlements B

LNG tank
Industrial plant

Settlements C

Figure 15: Risk region Z1, Z2 and Z3
5.3.3 Land use planning and layout adjustments in every risk region
According to Table 3 in section 2.5, suggestions on the planning andadjustments in risk region Z1, Z2 and Z3 are as follows:(1)In the region Z1 (R <493.3m), it is not allowed to build homes,
public buildings and industrial plants, thus from LNG reserves 230 m of thesettlements A in the east, 400 m of the settlements D in the north-west and180 m of industrial plant in south-east must be relocated.
(2) In the region Z2 (493.3 m <R <578m),it allowing a smaller
population density, other buildings except high-rise building construction
public buildings with a large number of people presentation (such as
stadiums, shopping), but it does not allow as schools, hospitals, Jinglao
Yuan, which are sensitive, vulnerable places; when it meets the following
conditions ķ a small amount of emergency personnel; ĸ industrial
activities are compatible; Ĺ workers to carry out emergency training, it
allows building corresponding industrial facilities.
(3) In the region Z3 (R> 578m), there is no restrictions. The storage
tanks do not affect settlements C and golf course. Also there are mountainbarrier between settlements C or golf course and storage tank. So they do
not need relocate.

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5.4 The method based on individual risk (IR)5.4.1 Quantitative analysis of IR(1) Relationship between death probability and distanceIn the case of one tank’s overall rupture, all leaked LNG causes
BLEVE or vapor cloud explosion.
i) The scene of BLEVE
The relationship between death probability and the distance to LNG
storage tank is shown in Figure 16, which is calculated by solid flame
model.
B

The probability of death

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
100

200

300

400

500

di s t anc e t o L NG t ank ( m)Figure 16: The relationship between death probability and the distance to
LNG storage tankii) The scene of vapor cloud explosion
The relationship between death probability and the distance to LNG
storage tank is shown in Figure 17, which is calculated by TNT equalmodel.
B
1.0

The probability of death

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
100

200

300

400

500

distance to LNG tank(m)Figure 17: The relationship between death probability and the distance to
LNG storage tankResearches and Applications of Land Use Planning Based on Risk Analysis

313

October 2008, Beijing, China(2) Calculation of IR
Here, the frequency of BLEVE and vapor cloud explosion is 10-5 per
year. According to formula (3), IRs corresponding to different distances isshown below.
-2

120 meters:

IR � � Pfi Pd / fi =10 h h h

240 meters:

IR � � Pfi Pd / fi =10 h h h





1

-

2





1

2

IR � � Pfi Pd / fi

=10-hh h

280 meters:
1
Alikely, IR corresponding to other distances are shown in Figure 18.

individusl risk

B
2.2x10-5

2.0x10-5

1.8x10-5

1.6x10-5

1.4x10-5

1.2x10-5

1.0x10-5

8.0x10-6

6.0x10-6

4.0x10-6

2.0x10

-6

0.0
80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

440

480

distance to LNG tank(m)Figure 18: Relationship between IR and distance
5.4.2 Division of risk regions
As can be seen from Figure 18, the critical distances from LNG
storage tank are 250m, 420m and 460m that correspond to IR of 10-5, 10-6
DQGh10-7 respectively. Then we use LNG tank as the center of the circle,
and 250m, 420m and 460m as radius respectively. Therefore, three different
risk regions are defined, see Figure 19.
Golf Course

Settlements D

Site A

Settlements B

LNG tank
Industrial plant

Settlements C

Figure 19: Division of risk regions
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5.4.3 Layout and adjustments of LUP in every risk region
According to the regulation of Table 4, layout and adjustments inregions Z1, Z2 and Z3 are as follows.
(1)In the region Z1 (R <250m, IR>10-5), as the number of residents is
300, which is much larger than allowed number (25), so settlements B in theeast of LNG storage reserve need move away. So does industrial plant.
(2) In the region Z2 (250 m <R <420m, 10-˚IR˚10-), as the numberof residents is 80, which is much larger than allowed number (75), so
settlements B in the north-west of LNG storage reserve needs move away.
(3) In the region Z3 (420m˘5˘m,10-˚IR˚h10-), there is not
any objects need relocate. Some layouts can be made based on Table 4, suchas residential area or small industrial plant can be located here.

6 CONCLUSIONS(1) As can be seen from the planning of LNG storage reserve, three methods
above introduce risk analysis into land use planning. They are feasible formajor projects’ locations and their surrounding layout.
(2) Basis of the three methods is different. Location estimate method basedon risk index goes on the most serious accident that causes the maximum
number of affected people. RI is confirmed based on it. By the means ofcomparing with risk acceptable level, we estimate the reasonability oflocation and make some reasonable adjustments. Risk-consequences-based
method adopts two distance thresholds, which corresponding to 1% of death
probability and 50% of irreversible health effects respectively. Based onthese, we divide three risk regions. While the method based on IR of 10-5,
10-6 and h10-7 and their corresponding distance thresholds. Some layout
and adjustments are made according to risk regions that are divided by thesethresholds, and their functions.
(3) The three methods above not only apply to LNG storage reserve’s
planning, but also any major projects’ locations and their surrounding land
use that involve pubic safety and sensitive attentions.

REFERENCES
Lin Yong-zhang,Ge Wei-zhong,Xu Qi-ming. Recalling series of majordisasters (6) � Study on explosion of liquefied petroleum gas tank in
Mexico Pemex . Chemical industry.2001,48(2):107-123.
Michalis D. Christou, Aniello Amendola, Maria Smeder.The control ofmajor accident hazards: The land-useplanning issue. Journal ofHazardous Materials (65)1999.151–178
HIRSTI L, CARTER D A. A “worst case” methodology for obtaining arough but rapid indication of the societal risk from a major accident
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hazard installation[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2002, A92:
223–235.
Guidance on ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) decisions incontrolofmajor
accident
hazards(COMAH).
http://www.hse.gov.uk/comah/circular/perm12.htm.
Secretary of State to the French Prime Minister for the Environment and thePrevention of major technological and nature risks, Control of Urban
Development around High-Risk Industrial Sites, October 1990.
Risk analysis Theory and approach for accident. Lecture of Center for
Urban Public Safety Research in Nankai University
Papazoglou. I.A., Nivolianitou. Z.S, Bonanos. G.S. Land use planningpolicies stemming from the implementation of the SEVESO-II
Directive in the EU. Journal of Hazardous Materials 61(199).345–348.
JONKMAN S N, VAN G P, VRIJLING J K. An overview of quantitativerisk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J]. Journal ofHazardous Materials, 2003, A99: 1–15
Health and Safety Executive., Risk criteria for land use planning in thevicinity of major industrial
hazards, Health and Safety Executive, UK, 1989.
VAN DEN BOSCH C J H. Methods for the determination of possible
damage to people and objects resulting from releases of hazardous
materials[M]. The Hague :The Netherlands Organisation of Applied
Scientific Research (TNO).1992: 60–87.
Center for Chemical Process Safety Guidelines for evaluating thecharacteristics of vapor cloud explosion, flash fires, and BLEVEs.
New York: The Amecrican Institute of Chemical Engineers, 1994:
157–242.

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NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATIC
FACTORS AND GROUND OZONECONCENTRATION IN SUMMER OVER THE
KANTO AREA USING THE MM5/CMAQ
MODELR.OOKA1, M.V.KHIEM2 and H.HUANG3
Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo,
4-6-1 Komaba Meguro�ku, Tokyo Japan.
1
ooka@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2khiem@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
3hhong@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
H. ayami,
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry,
1646 Abiko, Abiko-shi, Chiba-ken 270-1194, Japan.
haya@criepi.denken.or.jp
ABSTRACTIn recent years, the urban atmospheric pollution is still an importantenvironmental problem due to the rapid urbanization and industrial
development. It is found that atmospheric pollutant concentration can bestrongly affected by some local climatic factors (e.g., temperature, humidity,
wind, radiation, etc.). In this study, we use the MM5/CMAQ model toexamine relationship between these climatic factors and ground ozone (O3)concentration over Kanto (Japan) area. The nested grid system which covera region of Kanto with grid resolutions of 9 km, 3 km, and 1 km respectively�
have been employed to this study. The relationship between the simulated
O3 concentration with temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, andurban heat island were analyzed over the August 2005, representing typicalsummer climate. The numerical simulation shows O3 concentration asfunction of temperature, solar radiation, and relative humidity. The positive
correlation was found between O3 concentration with temperature and solar
radiation, while the negative correlation was found between O3
concentration and relative humidity. The result of this study suggests that
O3 concentration has a close relationship with climatic factors over Kantoarea.
1. INTRODUCTION
Kanto area is the largest inland and the most highly developed, urbanized,
and industrialized part of Japan. This area encompasses seven prefectures
which overlap the Greater Tokyo Area: Gunma, Tochigi, Ibaraki, Saitama,
Tokyo, Chiba, and Kanagawa, as shown in Figure 1. Its area extends about317

October 2008, Beijing, China

100 km in the E-W direction and 200 km in the N-S direction. With theincreasing trend of city-growth and urbanization, Kanto area also has to face
air pollution problem. According to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government
Environmental White Paper 2006, the concentration of most of air pollutants
are decreasing in Tokyo Metropolitan area due to the application of smoke
control regulations to factories and industrial complex, and introduction ofregulations to control diesel emissions from automobiles. However, theconcentration of photochemical oxidant (O3) has not achieved theEnvironmental Quality Standards (one-hour value of 0.06 ppm or less) andthe number of the days which high concentration of O3 is recorded has been
increasing. It is well known that O3 is formed as a result of complex nonlinear interaction of chemistry and climatic factors. Therefore, besides
chemical mechanics, to understand how high O3 produce in Kanto area, theinfluence of climate condition needs to be investigated. Many studies on therelationship between climate condition and air pollution over Kanto area
have been reported; for example Wakamatsu et al. (1983, 1990), Uno et al.
(1984), Kurita et al. (1985, 1986), Fujibe et al. (1985), Yoshikado et al.
(1994, 1996)... These studies showed that air pollution is strongly affectedby climate condition.

Figure1: Topography of the Kanto area viewed from the south-east
direction
In summer, the air pollution is mainly influenced by local windcirculation, especially land-sea breeze. Using aircraft measured data
Wakamatsu et al. (1983) found that O3 concentration strongly depend on theland-sea breeze. In the morning, the O3 concentration is near the shore ofTokyo Bay where there exist the Keihin and Keiyo Industrial Complex. This
O3 concentration mass was then moved to inland by the penetration of sea
breezes. In some cases, in the early morning Kanto area was dominated by
the land breeze with northerly and northeasterly directions. In this situation,
the last nighttime radiation inversion which persists into the early morning
prevents the dispersion of primary pollutants emitted from the big coastal
industrial zones around Tokyo Bay. Uno et al. (1984) showed that thesepollutants are then transported by land breeze to the Sagami Bay area whereacts as storage tank. Conversion of such pollutants results in a high O3 airmass inland with the penetration of sea breeze in daytime. Generally, thetransportation of air pollution mass from these sources to inland strongly
318

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depends on the complicated interaction among sea breezes (southeasterly
direction from Tokyo Bay, southerly direction from Sagami Bay, andeasterly direction from Kashima Bay) as well as the mountain/valley
circulations and thermal condition. Tsuruma (1983) summarized three main
trajectories of high air pollution mass are frequency transported from thesource area, these are; course A to north; course B to the northwest; andcourse C to the west. Kurita et al. (1985, 1986), and Fujibe et al. (1985)
demonstrated that the transport of air pollution mass with course B due tosea land breezes, mountain/valley circulations, the generation of a strong
thermal low in the inland mountain region, a steady onshore wind driven be
the diurnal-mean land-see temperature difference, and subsidence inversion
under a synoptic high pressure system. This transport mechanism usuallyoccurs on clear days associated with weak wind, it results in night smog inthe mountain area far from pollution source.
In contrast, in winter the distribution of high pollutants concentration
over Kanto Plain usually accompanied with two main weather patterns: (1)occurring a local stationary front across Tokyo Bay due to merging between
northwesterly air flow and southwesterly air flow; (2) the calm and stablecondition associated with ‘cold air lake’ in central Kanto. This pattern isresult of merging northwesterly or northerly cold air mass in lower
atmosphere and southwesterly warmer air mass in upper air (Yoshikado et al.
1994). The interaction between urban heat island (UHI) and sea breeze also
affect air pollution over Kanto area. Yoshikado et al. (1996) showed that inearly winter the temperature contrast between land and sea is quite small to
induce sea breeze, at the same time an urban heat island circulation (HIC) is
generated by the thermal contrast associated with the heat island. This
circulation tends to reinforce the sea breeze in the shore area and prevents
the penetration of sea breeze inland. In this case the air pollution often
concentrates over the urban area for a long time. Therefore air pollution will
become very high in urban area.
Besides above observational study and analysis, the numericalsimulations have been studied and reported. Numerical applications are able
to some problem such as lack of measured data over complex area as well as
upper air layer. Although these numerical models used some simple
assumptions, it showed good results. For example, the role of local windcirculation for the transportation of air pollution over Kanto Plain is studied
numerically in Kimura et al. (1983, 1985, and 1989) and Chang et al. (1989).
From previous studies, it can be concluded that:- There is a close relationship between air pollution and local climaticconditions and the land/sea breeze play an important role in thetransport of high air pollution concentrations over Kanto area.
- Urban Heat Island and its interaction with sea breeze has great
effects on air pollution concentrations- The air pollution mass was mainly transported toward west,
northwest, and north during summer days with high air pollution.
- A few detailed numerical study mentioned on a combination ofclimatic factors, i.e., temperature, humidity, solar radiation, synoptic
meteorology pattern, especially the effect of urban heat island and its
interaction with land/sea breeze circulation during high O3
concentration episode in summer.
Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model319

October 2008, Beijing, China

In this paper, the authors investigate the relationship between climatic
factors and ground ozone concentration over Kanto area using the coupled
MM5/CMAQ model. The main purpose is to find the role of climatic factors
such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, local circulations as well as
synoptic weather patterns during high O3 concentration episode in summer.
This study may help to better understand the climatic factors which control
O3 concentration over Kanto area.
2. MODEL DESCRIPTION
2.1

Meteorology model

The Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5)version 3.7, a limited-area, non-hydrostatic, terrain-following sigmacoordinate model (Dudhia, et al, 2005), is used in this research to provide
spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological fields to the air quality
model. It has some characteristics such as: (i) a multiple-nest capability, (ii)non-hydrostatic dynamics, which allows the model to be used at a fewkilometer scale, (iii) multitasking capability on shared- and distributedmemory� machines, (iv) a four-dimensional data-assimilation capability(FDDA), and (v) more physics options.
2.2

Air Quality modeling

The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling systemversion 4.6 developed by Environmental Protection Agency (USA), which
was released in 2006, was used in this study. It is a multiple scale andmultiple pollutant chemistry-transport model that includes all the criticalscience processes such as atmospheric transport, deposition, cloud mixing,
emissions, gas- and aqueous-phase chemical transformation processes, andaerosol dynamics and chemistry. The CMAQ system can simulate
concentrations of troposphere ozone, acid deposition, visibility, fineparticulate and other air pollutants in the context of “one atmospheric”
perspective involving complex atmospheric pollutant interactions onregional and urban scales.
3. ANALYSIS OUTLINE
3.1 Analysis domain
In this study, the MM5 simulation was performed with three nested
domains (Figure 2). Detailed configure ration of the domains is summarizedin Table 1. The nested grid system with 3 domains which with grid
resolutions of 9 km, 3 km, and 1 km, respectively is employed. The second
domain size is 73x88 grid points and the third domain is 100x121 grid point.
All of the domains have 23 vertical sigma levels from the surface to the
100-hPa level.

320

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Figure 2: Analysis domain and monitoring stations for CMAQ validation
Table 1: Analysis size domains and grid resolution

D1
D2
D3

Computation domain (X[km]x Y[km])Grid number

450x540216x261
99x12051x61x23
73x88x23
100x121x23

Horizontal
resolution
(km)
9
3
1

3.2 Model configureuration
For this study, the physical options in the MM5 simulation are as
follows: Grell cumulus parameterization scheme(Grell et al., 1994); MRF
planetary boundary layer scheme(Hong et al., 1996); explicit simple ice
microphysics(Hsie et al., 1984); cloud-radiation scheme(Dudhia, 1989) andFDDA. The cumulus parameterization scheme is not used for the 3 and 1km domains. The CMAQ was configureured with the following options: (1)CB-IV speciation with aerosol and aqueous chemistry; (2) the Piecewise
Parabolic Method for both horizontal and vertical advection; (3) eddy
vertical diffusion; (4) photolysis; (5) no Plume-in-Grid; (6) the EBI
chemistry solver configureured for CB05; (7) use of the 3rd-generation
aerosol model; (8) use of the 2nd-generation aerosol deposition model; (9)use of RADM cloud model; (10) 14 vertical layers. More detailed
description of the scientific mechanisms and implementations of CMAQ canbe found in Byun and Ching (1999).
3.3 Study period and simulation condition
The August 2005 was selected for MM5/CMAQ simulation.
Meteorological conditions with weak surface wind and high temperature inthis month are favorable for high photochemical production of ozone. Alldays observed O3 concentration exceeds the Japan environmental quality
standard (60 ppb), especially during from 4th to 8th and 14th, 15th, O3
becomes very high, there are some monitoring stations which observed O3
concentration exceeds 120 ppb as seen in Figure 3. Global meteorological
data (FNL) from NCAR with horizontal resolution of 10x10 was used toprovide initial and boundary conditions for MM5 model and FDDA process.
Hourly emission data used here are the horizontal 3km x 3km emission
estimated by Hayami et al., ( 2004) (Figure 4). After MM5 simulation,
CMAQ model was performed in domain 2 with the initial and boundary
condition were derived from climatologic profile of atmospheric pollutants
Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model321

October 2008, Beijing, China��������������������
��������

as described in Byun and Chinh (1999) and the observation report of Japan
Clean Air Program (Table 2). Finally, output of CMAQ model in domain 2
used to produce initial and boundary condition for CMAQ model in domain
3. Result of CMAQ and MM5 simulation in domain 3 are used to analysis
relationship between climatic factors and O3 concentration.
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Figure 3: Changes in the number of monitoring station by O3 level inAugust over Kanto area

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Figure 4: Hour emission data for CMAQ at 14 JST August 6 (mole/s/grid)Specie
s
ICs
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S

Table 2: Initial and boundary condition (ppb) for CMAQ model(JCAP, 1999)
O3

NO

NO2

ALD

FORM

ETH

OLE

TOL

XYL

ISO

28
28
25
30

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1.8
1.8
1.8
0.9

2.2
2.2
2.2
1.1

1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
Default

1.6
1.6
1.6
0.4

14.4
14.4
14.4
6.0

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

PA
R
74.3
74.3
74.3
37.8

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
4.1. Comparison of simulation and observation
In this study, the results from the CMAQ model in domain 3 were compared
to measured data from air quality monitoring stations located within Kantoarea; Shinjuku, Nerima, Fuchu, Saitama-shiUrawa, Matsudo-shi, andKawasaki-shiSai, which are shown in Figureure 2. The ozone time series
comparison between the CMAQ simulation and observation at the 6monitoring stations are shown in Figureure 5. Generally speaking, the322

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31���������

model simulation shows different results depend on the location ofmonitoring station. It can be said that there is a good agreement between
simulated O3 concentration tendency and observation. However, for thedays with low ozone concentration, the simulated O3 concentration tends tooverestimate, this may relate to calculating of the vertical diffusion
coefficient in the MM5 model, initial and boundary conditions of CMAQ
model.
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Figure 5: Hour ozone concentration time series variation of observationand simulation at some stations during August 2005
Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model323

October 2008, Beijing, China

4.2. Relation between simulated ozone concentration and climatic
factors
4.2.1 Synoptic circulation
There are many spatial scales in urban climate, from macroscale tomesoscale and microscale. Their interaction and effect on air pollution arevery complex. In order to detect the synoptic circulation condition
accompanying high ozone days in Kanto area, we carefully analyzed
synoptic patterns based on large scale pressure distribution. The result
showed five main types of synoptic patterns cause high ozone concentration
over Kanto area as shown in Figure 6. These are described as follows:

L

H

H

L

Pattern II

Pattern I

L

L

L
Pattern III

H
Pattern IV

Pattern III

H
Pattern V

Figure 6: The synoptic patterns are favorable for high O3 formation over
Kanto
(I)

(II)

324

Kanto area is under control of low pressure system in western andhigh pressure system in eastern. In this case, the isobars line parcel
to north-south direction and cause strong southerly gradient wind.
On these days with this pattern, O3 is often low.
Kanto area is under control of the belt of high and low pressure
system. In this case, the isobars line parcel to southwest-northeast
direction and cause strong southwesterly gradient wind. On thesedays, because of the SW gradient wind, it is not favorable fordeveloping sea breeze and the high O3 often appears in northwesternpart of Kanto.

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

(III)

(IV)

(V)

Under the control of a low pressure system. There are two abilities inthis case. Firstly, Kanto area is between two low pressure systems,
one is western and the other is eastern part of Kanto. Two systems
create ridge with high pressure cover Kanto area. Secondly, Kanto
area is under a low pressure system, the westerly gradient wind willbe blocked by high mountain barrier in western and split into twocurrents which pass around the central Kanto area. In both situations,
the weather is characterized by high temperature, high solar
radiation, low humidity and the mostly calm wind. Therefore,
surface O3 becomes very high in Tokyo city and around Tokyo Bay.
Under the control of Pacific Subtropical high pressure ridge, thispattern was mentioned by some researches, on these days with thispattern the weather is clear, high temperature and very weak windspeed. Especially the Urban Heat Island (UHI) develops and affects
O3 formation very strongly. The O3 of these days is very high.
Under the control of local high pressure system. In this case, Kanto
area was cover local pressure, the climatic condition is favorable forO3 formation, but it is not as high as pattern IV.

4.2.1 Temperature
The relationship between ozone concentration and temperature isindicated in Figure 7. It is well known that the high temperature can raise
the rate of chemical reaction between nitrogen oxides (NOx) and Volatile
Organic Compounds (VOCs), this leads to significantly increase surface
ozone concentrations in city areas. In order to investigate the effect oftemperature on ozone concentration, the scatter plot is used to describeozone concentration – climate relation. In Figure 7 we can see ozone
concentration at all monitoring stations in Kanto area as a function oftemperature. Ozone concentration is small at low temperature (below 27oC),
but it significantly increases with increasing temperature. The linear
correlation coefficient between simulated ozone and temperature at all
station are shown in Table 3. It is found that there is a strong relationshipbetween simulated ozone and temperature in August. The maximum
correlation coefficient is found as 0.74 at Saitama-shiUrawa and theminimum correlation coefficient is found as 0.50 at Kawasaki-shiSai. This
result also shows that the temperature above 28oC is one of the factors
which cause the exceedance of ozone concentration (>60ppb).

Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model325

October 2008, Beijing, China���������������

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Figure 7: Relationship between O3 and temperature at every hour from 8:00
to 14:00h in August 2005 base on MM5/CMAQ simulation
Table 3: Correlation coefficients between simulated ozone and climatic
factors at some monitoring stations base on MM5/CMAQ simulation

StationVariables
Temperature
Solar radiation
Relative
humidity

KawasakishiSai
0.50
0.52

-0.80

-0.82

-0.73

-0.75

Fuchu

0.56
0.56

0.73
0.57

-0.75

-0.82

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0.74
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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31������������

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Figure 8: Relationship between O3 and solar radiation at every hour from08:00 to 14:00h in August 2005 base on MM5/CMAQ simulation
4.2.2 Solar radiation
It is well know that the rate of photochemical reaction depends on theintensity of solar radiation, therefore solar radiation is an important factor in
the formation of ground ozone concentration. Figure 8 shows ozone
concentration at monitoring stations in Kanto area as a function of theintensity of solar radiation. It is clear that increasing the intensity of solar
radiation tend to increase the ground ozone concentration. When theintensity of solar radiation is low, the high ozone concentration depends onother factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, etc. The positive
correlation is found at all monitoring stations as seen in Table 3. Comparing
to temperature, the solar radiation has not much effect, the correlation
coefficient varies from 0.5 at Matsudo-shi to 0.7 at Saitama-shiUrawa.
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Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model327

October 2008, Beijing, China������������������

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Figure 9: Relationship between O3 and relative humidity at every hourfrom 08:00 to 14:00h, in August 2005 base on MM5/CMAQ simulation
4.2.3 Relative humidity
Water vapor plays an important role in O3 chemical andphotochemical processes; it can absorb the substances in the atmosphere. On
other hand, hydrogen and hydroxyl radicals can be formed from water vapor
and, consequently, cause reactions that destroy ozone molecules. Figure 9shows ozone concentration at monitoring stations in Kanto area as afunction of relative humidity. The ozone concentration is decreasing withincreasing relative humidity. The ozone concentration does not exceed
environmental quality standards with the relative humidity above 60 %. The
negative correlation is found at all monitoring stations as seen as in Table 3.
The result analysis shows the simulated ozone concentration is influenced
by relative humidity as much as temperature and solar radiation. The linear
correlation coefficient is very high at all monitoring station with the
maximum is -0.82 at Saitama-shiUrawa and Nerima. Because the relative
humidity is dependent variable, it depends on temperature, pressure, etc.
Therefore, it is necessary to fix related variables. For example, in order tominimize effect of temperature we sort relative humidity into 5 categories
base on temperature in degrees Celsius: Rh1 with T1= (28, 30]; Rh2 with
T2= (30, 31]; Rh3 with T3= (31, 32]; Rh4 with T4= (32, 33]; and Rh5 with
T5= (33,]. The result in Table 4 show the effect of humidity strongly
depends on temperature, it is very complex and non-linear. This result
suggested that O3 concentration not only depends on separate climatic factor,
but it depends on relation of climatic factors. Therefore, relationshipbetween O3 and climatic factor need to be considered in relation of anotherclimatic factor.
Table 4: Correlation coefficients between simulated ozone and various
relative humidity categories at some monitoring stations base on
MM5/CMAQ simulation, the value in brackets indicates sample number.

StationVariables
Rh1
Rh2
Rh3
Rh4
Rh5

328

Shinjuku

NerimaFuchu-0.49 (31)-0.53 (34)-0.70 (43)-0.79 (40)-0.71 (36)-0.59 (38)-0.58 (29)-0.50 (36)-0.73 (41)-0.67 (36)-0.52 (33)-0.66 (32)
-0.57 (45)-0.69 (34)-0.49 (35)

SaitamashiUrawa-0.66 (33)-0.49 (35)-0.51 (32)-0.79 (31)-0.88 (50)

Matsudoshi-0.64 (34)-0.48 (31)-0.48 (41)-0.78 (48)-0.52 (29)

KawasakishiSai-0.61 (37)-0.83 (40)-0.71 (52)-0.41 (42)-0.55 (17)

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

4.2.4 The relationship between Urban Heat Island and ozone
concentration
Observational analysis of Yoshikado (1996) suggested that during
winter the temperature contrast between land and sea is quite small to
induce sea breeze (about 2oC). This sea breeze interacts with UHI causing
high air pollution over the city. Therefore, how is the influence of UHI
when the temperature contrast is large in summer? In order to understandthis problem, we select simulation result on August 4, 2005 whichassociated with daytime UHI event over Tokyo area for analysis. This day,the Pacific Subtropical High expands to the west (Figure 10), the Kanto area
was covered by its ridge and the weather was fine. Figure 11a shows thespatial distribution of the surface temperature and 10m wind from MM5
simulation in domain 3. We can see the region of temperature higher than
370C over Tokyo metropolitan at 12 JST and the horizontal wind speed is alittle weak. The high temperature associated with UHI causes pressure
deficiency over city and creates a circular pressure gradient pattern aroundthe city as shown in Figure 11b. In this situation, the sea breeze from Tokyo
Bay (S-SE), Sagami (SW-S) and Kashima (E) merged and combine withflow from suburban. This system remained without moving for some hours
and cause high O3 concentration over city (Figure 12). Although thedifference of temperature between land and sea is very high, the sea breeze
cannot pass through city due to of persistence of UHI. Interaction between
UHI and sea breeze also is very important in high O3 formation over Kanto
area. This interaction can be described by vertical cross of circulation vector
from shore to suburban AA’ (Figure 13). On this day, there is no land
breeze because the land surface remands hotter than sea surface from lastnight. During the early morning the Tokyo Metropolitan area is calm, thesea breeze can be recognized near shore and begins to penetrate inland.
Until mild morning, when surface was heated by sun, it appears an area withhigh temperature over Tokyo city. The contrast of temperature between
urban and suburban area creates urban heat island circulation (HIC). At
surface, the flow from suburban meets sea breeze at city and goes up. This
updraft of HIC acts like ‘block’ preventing the penetration of sea breezeinland, therefore high O3 concentration results over city area. Moreover,because Kanto area is under control of high pressure system, it is generated
subsidence inversion from 9 to 15 JST near 850 mb level as seen in Figure
14. Under this inversion, the air pollution cannot be mixed well within theatmospheric and high O3 concentration can be understood.

Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model329

October 2008, Beijing, China

850 mb

H

Figure 10: Geopotential height [gpm] at 9 JST August 4

A’

A
a

b

Figure 11: The simulation result from MM5 model at 12 JST August 4; (a)simulated surface temperature (oC), 10m-wind; (b) surface pressure (mb)Figure 12: The CMAQ simulated O3 (ppbV) in D3 at 14 JST August 4330

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

8 JST

10 JST

12 JST

14 JST

Figure 13: Circulation vector in the plain of the cross section A’A for
August 4

Figure 14: The Skew-T diagram at 14 JST August 4 at Nerima

Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model331

October 2008, Beijing, China

5. CONCLUSIONS
A coupled MM5/CMAQ model is first used to investigate the relationshipbetween ground ozone concentration and climatic factors over Kanto area.
The analysis results showed that there is a close relationship between
climatic factors and ground ozone concentration in Kanto area. O3 strongly
depends on the synoptic pattern. Of the 5 major patterns that are identified,pattern III and IV cause significantly high O3 concentration. Simulation
analysis gives the ground ozone concentration as function of temperature,solar radiation, and relative humidity. The increase in temperature, solar
radiation and the decrease in humidity lead to increase ozone concentration.
The relative humidity has the most important effect. This analysis also
showed that the extreme of O3 concentration appears on the day which
Kanto area is controlled by Pacific subtropical high pressure system. Thesedays seem to have all favorable climate conditions for high O3 formation,high temperature and solar radiation, low humidity and mostly calm wind.
Especially urban heat island and its interaction with sea breeze have strong
effect on O3 concentration over Kanto area. Although the difference oftemperature between land and sea is favorable for developing sea breeze,
the sea breeze cannot pass city due to persistence of UHI. Moreover thesubsidence inversion on these days also is one of the factors causesignificantly high O3 concentration in this area. This study suggested thatthe coupled MM5/CMAQ model can be useful tool for urban environmentand climate analysis. However, to get more detailed information it isnecessary to combine the MM5/CMAQ model with finer model such asurban canopy, wind tunnel, and roadside model. That is our researchinterests in future work.

REFERENCES
Byun, D.W., Ching, J.K.S. (Eds.), 1999. Science Algorithms of the EPA
Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling
System. NERL, Research Triangle Park, NC.
Chang, Y.S., Carmichael, G.R., Kurita, H., Ueda, H., 1989. The transportand formation of photochemical oxidants in central Japan.
Atmospheric Environment, Volume 23, Issue 2, Pages 363-393
Dudhia, J., 1989. Numerical study of convection observed during the wintermonsoonexperiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.
Journal of Atmospheric Science46, 3077–3107.
Dudhia, J. Gill, D. Yong-Run Guo. and Manning K., 2005. PSU/NCAR
Mesoscale Modeling System. Tutorial Class Notes and User's Guide:
MM5 Modeling System Version 3
Fujibe, F., 1985. Air pollution in the surface layer accompanying a local
front at the oncet of the land breeze. Journal of Meteorology Society ofJapan, 63, pp.226-237,
Grell, G.A., Dudhia, J., Stauffer, D.R., 1994. A description of the fifthgeneration Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR
Technical Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 117pp.
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Hayami, H., and Kobayashi, S., 2004. Modeling of Concentration of
Atmospheric Secondary Aerosol, CRIEPI Report T03037, 17.(inJapanese)
Hong, S.Y., Pan, H.L., 1996. Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a
medium-range forecast model. Monthly Weather Review 124, 2322–
2339.
Hsie, E.Y., Anthes, R.A., 1984. Simulations of frontogenesis in a moist
atmosphere using alternative parameterizations of condensation andprecipitation. Journal of Atmospheric Science 41, 2701–2716.
JCAP., 1999. Air Modeling (4), Observation results of Kanto area insummer, Technical Report of Japan Clean Air Program. (in Japanese)
Kurita, H., Sasaki, K., Muroga, H., Ueda, H., Wakamatsu, S., 1985. Longrange transport of air pollution under light gradient wind conditions.
Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology. 24, pp. 425–434.
Kurita, H., Ueda, H., 1986. Meteorological conditions for long-range
transport under light gradient winds. Atmospheric Environment 20, pp.
687–694
Kimura, F., 1983. A numerical simulation of local winds and photochemical
air pollution (I) : Two- dimensional land and sea breeze. Journal of
Meteorological Society of Japan, 61, 862-873.
Kimura, F., 1985. A numerical simulation of local winds and photochemical
air pollution (II) : Application to the Kanto Plain. Journal of
Meteorological Society of Japan, 63, 923-936.
Kimura, F., 1989. A simulation of wind and air pollution over complex
terrain using a hydrostatic numerical model.
Atmospheric
Environment, 23, 723-730
Tsuruta, H., 1983. Report of Special Research Project on Environmental
Science, Grants in Aid for Scientific Research, B180-5702, 94-114, (inJapanese).
Uno, I., Wakamatsu, S., Ogawa, Y., Murano, K., 1984. Three-dimensional
behaviour of photochemical pollutants covering the Tokyo
metropolitan area. Atmospheric Environment, Volume 18, Issue
4, 1984, Pages 751-761
Wakamatsu, S., Ogawa, Y., Murano, K., Goi, K., Aburamoto, Y., 1983.
Aircraft survey of the secondary photochemical pollutants covering
the Tokyo metropolitan area. Atmospheric Environment, Volume 17,
Issue 4, Pages 827-835
Wakamatsu, S., Uno, I., Suzuki, M., 1990. A field study of photochemicalsmog formation under stagnant meteorological conditions.
Atmospheric Environment. Part A. General Topics, Volume 24, Issue
5, Pages 1037-1050
Yoshikado, H., Tsuchida, M., 1996. High Levels of Winter Air Pollution
under the Influence of the Urban Heat Island Along the Shore of Tokyo
Bay . Journal of Applied Meteorol., 35, pp.1804-1813,
Yoshikado, H., Mizuno, T., Shimogata, S., 1994. Terrain-induced air
stagnation over the southern Kanto plain in early winter. BoundaryLayer Meteor., 68, pp.159-172,

Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Climatic Factors and Ground Ozone Concentration in
Summer over the Kanto Area Using the MM5/CMAQ Model333

October 2008, Beijing, China

334

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON A LOCALHYDROLOGICAL FLOW: THE CASESTUDY OF SREPOK RIVER BASIN
IN VIET NAM AND CAMBODIAAKIYUKI KAWASAKI1, PETER ROGERS2SRIKANTHA HERATH3and KIMIRO MEGURO1
1
IIS, The University of Tokyo, Japan
2
Harvard University, USA
3
United Nations University, Japanakiyuki@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThe impact of climate change on the quantity, variability, and spatial
distribution of water resources is increasingly cited as a possible brake toeconomic and social development in underdeveloped countries. This study
investigated the potential impact of climate and land-cover change on a
local hydrological flow, by creating a simple analysis method by integrating
current data, models and technologies into common GIS environment. The
level of uncertainty in predicting the outcome of hydrological simulations
using existing methods and data will be discussed. Suitable adaptations fora given area will be proposed in light of these uncertainties, and the optionsof local decision makers and stakeholders will be explored. The Srepok
River basin, the main tributary of the Lower Mekong, was selected as astudy area.
These results suggest that population increases and land development,
and therefore growth in human water demand, has a far greater effect than
precipitation change will in the next 50 years. However, these results are
based on several assumptions in simplifications. A more thorough study
might address a non-uniform change in precipitation and climate and more
severe or other land cover change scenarios.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the 21 century, water is proving to be at the heart of serious
environmental, political and economic issues around the globe. The impact
of climate change on the quantity, variability, and spatial distribution ofwater resources is increasingly cited as a possible hindrance to economic
and social development in underdeveloped countries. This is exacerbated by
the fact that many of the large river basins of the world are shared among
several nations (Rogers, 1993: Beach et at., 2000).

335

October 2008, Beijing, China

The contributions of climate change, human development and their
combination to the future state of global water resources were reported by
Vorosmarty et al. (2000) and Oki and Kanae (2006). The IPCC’s regional
analysis indicates freshwater availability in South-East Asia, particularly inlarge river basins, is projected to decrease by the 2050s (Cruz et al., 2007).
Recently, the impacts of climate change on future hydrology in the entire
large river basin level were investigated in the Nile and the Mekong Riverbasin (Beyene et al., unpublished; Kiem et al., 2008). The IPCC (2007) has
promoted “adaptation” as the best means for responding to climate change.
To study water resource adaptation, attention to local scale is essential
because the structure of the solution is different for each scale and set of
local characteristics. Concrete adaptations based on practical analysis areoften lacking, particularly on local and regional scales.
As yet, a reliable framework and tools needed to support climate
adaptation in river basins remain unavailable. However, recent
developments in modeling and data acquisition and processing have madeintegrated approaches to sustainable water resource management morefeasible. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential impact ofclimate and land-cover changes on local stream flow in the next several
decades. The level of uncertainty in predicting the outcome of hydrologicalsimulations using existing methods and data will be discussed.
Developing analysis process of the climate and land-cover impact on
local stream flow should not only contribute to decision support for a given
area, but also in many locations with different situations. We plan todevelop such an approach using the IPCC and other hydrological scenarios.
The significance of this project is developing a systematic approach for
integrating a wide range of data models, data formats, and researchmethodologies into common GIS computing environments for conductinghydrological simulations in local level.
2. STUDY AREA AND DATA
2.1

Study area

The Mekong River is the largest international river in Asia, whichrises in the Tibetan Plateau and empties into the South China Sea after
travelling 4,000 km and flowing through six countries: China, Myanmar,
Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Vietnam. Srepok River Basin, the main
tributary of the Lower Mekong, was selected as a study area (Figure 1). The
total length of Srepok River is 315km and the catchment area is 30,100km2.
Population growth and agricultural-land expansion, especially in upstreamof Viet Nam side, are of increasing concern (CarlBro Intelligent Solutions,2005). To realize a fair water use in both upstream and downstream,
exploitation and the use of water resources in the basin should be taken into
consideration for the benefit of the whole region.
Rainy season begins in May and ends in October in the upper Srepok
River basin. Dry season is from December to March. The stream flow in dry
season in the upper Srepok River basin is less than 30% of annual flow (Ty,
2008). Basic meteorology data in Srepok River basin is shown as follows

336

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31(CarlBro Intelligent Solutions, 2005): The average annual temperature:
23 � ; annual humidity: 78-83%; annual evaporation: 1,300 mm; andaverage rainfall: 1750 mm.

Figure 1: Srepok River basin and the hydro-meteorological stations.
2.2 Data
Contemporary GIS data such as land-cover, soil, and digital elevation
models was obtained from the Mekong River Commission Secretariat, Lao
PDR. Daily precipitation data of four locations (Ban Don, Duc Xuyen, Cau
14, Krongbuk) and daily stream flow data at Ban Don were obtained by the
Hydro-Meteorological Data Center (HyMetData), Viet Nam. Table 1 shows
the data list of this study.
Table 1: Data list.
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3. METHODOLOGY
The overall structure of this project involved integration of two software
programs – a hydrological simulation tool (Hydrologic Modeling System;
HEC-HMS) and a GIS environment (ArcGIS). HEC-HMS is designed tosimulate the precipitation-runoff processes of dendritic watershed systems(US Army Corps of Engineers, 2008). The integration better reflects effects
of changing climate and land cover over time on a localized scale.
Specifically, Arc Hydro Tools (Maidment, 2002) and Hec-GeoHMS (USArmy Corps of Engineers, 2008), two ArcGIS-based system applications
Considering the Impact of Climate and Land Cover Change on a Local Hydrological Flow: The Case Studyof Srepok River Basin in Viet Nam and Cambodia
337

October 2008, Beijing, China

were used to process climate and rainfall data into one integrated model ofthe hydrological processes in the SrePok Basin.
3.1 Creating the Basin Model
ArcGIS was used to create a spatially relevant basin model that
integrated rainfall data and land characteristics. To analyze the effects ofstreamflow at a more localized level, terrain processing tools in the
ArcHydro Tools application were used to delineate a main river andsubbasins from a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the SrePok River Basin.
Subbasin slope and area were also calculated from the terrain processing
procedure using the ArcHydro Tools application. Rainfall time series data
were mapped from four rainfall observation sites (Ban Don, Duc Xuyen,
Cau 14, Krong Buk) to individual subbasins using Thiessen’s Polygon
method. Since all the rainfall observation sites were located in Vietnam (asno such data was readily available from Cambodia), there is significant
simplication in this rainfall distribution model as all subbasins downstreamof BanDon are assumed have the same rainfall.
The land cover characteristics used in this study was based on the U.S.
Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) system (McCuen,
1982; Soil Conservation Service, 1986) – which determines a runoff
coefficient from a simple land cover and soil drainage type table (Table 2).
Using available Land cover and Soil Type maps for the region and amodified CN Lookup Table (to match key land cover types of interest in thisstudy), curve numbers and curve number based lag times were calculated
aggregated for each individual subbasin. The lag time, time between peak
rainfall and peak streamflow, was also calculated based on SCS formulas(below). These calculations were all excuted in the ArcGIS environment
using HecGeo-HMS Tools application. SCS Curve Numbers were generated
from modified curve number lookup table and averaged over the entirety ofthe subbasin (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2000).
Table 2: Modified Curve Number Lookup Table.
Land Cover Category

Soil TypeA

Thick cover forest

B
30

C
55

D
70

77

thin cover forest

43

65

76

82

MosaicOpen land

43
39

65
61

76
74

82
80

cloud
Agriculture
Glass land

50
67
30

50
77
58

50
83
71

50
87
78

Urban
Water

89
100

92
100

94
100

95
100

Soil Type ranges from A (absorbent) to D (not absorbent). For
Antecedent Moisture Conditions II (regular conditions, see below) :CN-based Lag Method:338

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ICUS Report 31

where L = longest flow path in subbasin (m), H = basin slope (%) andtlag = lag time (hr)
3.2 Simulation and Calibration
The local basin model was then integrated into HEC-HMS softwareenvironment for simulating streamflow from precipitation at a daily level
for the year 2001, so that the results could be calibrated to observed daily
streamflow data from 2001. In addition to the curve number and lag times
imported from ArcGIS with the Basin model, the SCS formula was used to
calculate initial abstraction, which includes all losses before runoff begins
such as water retained in surface depressions, water taken up by vegetation,
evaporation, and infiltration (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2000).
Initial abstraction (mm) = 0.2 (

1000
– 10)
CN

The Muskingum Routing method was chosen to model stream routing
since it required fewest assumptions about unknown data. Assumptions
include a Muskingum X value of 0.1 (indicating a small, natural stream), a
subreach value of 2, and a streamflow speed of 2 miles/hr was used to
calculate Muskingum K value (length of time to travel a stream reach) (USArmy Corps of Engineers, 2000). Simulation results were then compared toobserved streamflow at BanDon station in 2001. The initial simulation fromthe model reflected too high a sensitivity in the streamflow to precipitation.
This disparity with observed data resulted largely from not accounting forthe human control of flow through hydropower dams and reservoirs in thearea. However, data about policies of flow control in the dam was notavailable. To account for human streamflow control, the effects ofprecipitation from all subbasins upstream of the BanDon hydropower sitewere replaced with a constant monthly baseflow adjusted to match observed
streamflow. Also to smooth out the curve and reduce the volatility of thestreamflow, the lag time was increased in all subbasins by a factor of 4.

Flow (m3/s)

2,000
1,800

Observed

1,600

Simulated

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Figure 2: Hydrograph at BanDon Streamflow station.
While this method achieved adequate fitness with respect to observed
data for this level of the study, it does create difficulties later on in the study
Considering the Impact of Climate and Land Cover Change on a Local Hydrological Flow: The Case Studyof Srepok River Basin in Viet Nam and Cambodia339

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaas all future changes rainfall activity and land cover characteristics ofsubbasins upstream of Ban Don will not be accounted for in this adjusted
basin model. Ideally, more available data on flow levels and the spatial
distribution of local reservoirs and dams and future plans for reservoir anddam activity would provide a more comprehensive study.
Also after generating initial results, it was also clear that the vastdifferences in climate conditions between the wet and dry season in the
country necessitated different treatment of the model for the two seasons.
Specifically, SCS curve number calculations vary significantly depending
on climate conditions, or Antecedent Moisture Conditions (AMC). Dry
season conditions match the conditions of AMC I, where as wet season
conditions match those of AMC III. The current CN (II) conditions wereconverted using CN equivalence formulas (Chow et al., 1988):
Dry season: January – April
Wet season: May – October
CN (I) =4.2 CN (II)10-0.058 CN (II)CN (III) =23 CN (II)10+0.013 CN (II)3.3 Creating Future Land Cover Scenarios
Land cover information was used to determine two key factors in thestreamflow model - runoff and water demand. Future land cover scenarios
were needed to determine future impact of land development. Given thatdata was not available about future land cover policy decisions, population
density data was used to predict future land cover (CIESIN, 2008). The two
future scenarios focused on urban and agricultural development in 2025 and2050. A per annum population growth rate of 1.95% (Carl Bro Intelligent
Solutions, 2005) was uniformly applied across population density grids togenerate population density grids for 2025 and 2050. Comparing populationin 2000 with the available land cover data from 1997, threshold values wereset for what population densities were in various land cover types. Thesesame threshold values were then reapplied to the new population density
grids for 2025 and 2050 to determine future land cover. Currently
undeveloped land (i.e. forest) could become more developed, but not viceversa. Curve numbers, lag times, and initial abstraction values wererecalculated based on these two new land cover scenarios for theirrespective future simulations.
Land cover change, specifically urban and agricultural development,
also heavily affects human water demand. Annual water demand (measured
in million cubic meters) was used to calculate factors of water demand per
area for agricultural and urban land types. These factors were thenmultiplied by their respective agricultural and urban areas in each subbasin,creating a new water demand per subbasin based on future land cover
scenarios. Seasonality was also accounted for as annual water demand was
split into dry and wet season demand, where a historically accurate ratio of
1:2 was assumed (Carl Bro Intelligent Solutions, 2005). To incorporate
water demand changes into the streamflow model, the difference in futurewater demand and current water demand was directly subtracted from all
subbasins’ respective baseflows.

340

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Table 3: Water Demand Data for Vietnamese SrePok.
Water Demand(MCM)

Area (km2)

Agriculture

1,618.0

5,996.6

0.3

Urban

51.8

6.7

7.6

(Industry)

30.5

-

-

(City Domestic)

21.3

-

-

Demand/Area (m3/m2)

Table 4: Future Land Cover and related Water Demand in Whole SrePok.
Year

Agricultural Area
(km2)

Urban Area(km2)

Total Annual Water
Demand (MCM)

1997
2025

6,368.8

6.7

1,770.3

9,260.6

195.3

3,995.1

2050

11,453.1

842.4

9,546.1

3.4 Creating Future Precipitation Scenarios
Several options were considered for creating a simple future
precipitation scenario, given that there is so much variability in current
models. Initially, various General Circulation Models (GCMs) available
from the IPCC were considered. GCMs are generally reliable fortemperature predictions relative to precipitation, wind, humidity or airpressure predictions. As Christofides et al. (2008) suggested, these large
scale models were unsuitable for predicting regional precipitation change. A
stochastic model was also briefly explored that was based on more reliabletemperature change – however given that the goal of the project was not toaccurately predict future rainfall, but to create a framework for integrating
tools – a uniform 5% increase in 50 years was assumed instead. This
simplification allowed for work on the greater goals of developing aframework for approaching this type of analysis, while remaining withinsuggested implications from the IPCC. Since most estimates for changes in
global precipitation vary between no change and 5% increase in 50 years(Meehl et al., 2007), a separate simulation was also run with no precipitation
change.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Results were studies both at the BanDon streamflow station in Vietnam andat the Outlet of the SrePok in Cambodia. In general, the simulated
streamflow for 2025 and 2050 were similar to 2001, as a uniform
transformation in precipitation was used to predict future rainfall. At both
BanDon and the Outlet, flow decreased by about 20 m/s in 2025 and by
about 50 m/s in 2050 in the dry season, and decreased variably in the wet
season as well. These decreases were comparable both at Ban Don and at
the Outlet, despite that the most development occurred around and upstreamof Ban Don. In Figure 3, Min stands for No Change in Precipitation andrepresents simulations that were conducted using unmodified precipitation
data from 2001, representing the lower end of the range of expected overall
Considering the Impact of Climate and Land Cover Change on a Local Hydrological Flow: The Case Studyof Srepok River Basin in Viet Nam and Cambodia341

October 2008, Beijing, Chinachange in precipitation over the next 50 years. Max simulations weregenerated with a future precipitation prediction of 2.5% uniform increase in
2025 and 5% in 2050.
The greatest factor in reducing future streamflow seems to be humanwater demand, which was accounted for directly in reducing baseflow. In
dry seasons, with no precipitation, decreased flow was virtually a direct
effect of increased human water demand in the future. In the wet season, if
anything, increase precipitation ameliorated the decrease in baseflow fromincreased human water demand. Changing curve numbers and relevant
calculated values (lag time and initial abstraction) had a relatively
insignificant effect. This is not surprising since runoff is more important forsmaller time scales (singular events, storms) than year long simulations.
As for precipitation change, the simulations ran with no change inprecipitation resulted in decreased flow compared with simulations with the
maximum expected increase of 5% by 2050 – but the decrease in flow wasless than 10 m/s. If anything, the most extreme expected climate change(5% increase in precipitation) would ameliorate reduced streamflow fromincreased water demand.
20

2001

10

2025 Max
2025 Min
2050 Max02050 Min

-10

s)
m
(
w
ol -30F

3/ -20

-40

-50

-60

-70

an
-J
1

anJ
13

ra
M
-2

r
p
A
-1

ay
M
-1

ay
M
-1
3

n
u
-J0
3

l
u
-J
0
3

g
u
A
9
2

ep
-S
8
2

tc
O
-8
2

Figure 3: Difference Graphs for Streamflow at BanDon
These results suggest that population increases and land development,
and therefore growth in human water demand, has a far greater effect than
precipitation change will in the next 50 years. The results suggest that an
adaptation strategy should focus on maintaining steady water supply in thedry season for human use as water demand increases. This may involve a
readjustment in policy in land development – but this is unlikely given
economic incentives and tendencies in the area to expand agricultural land.
More likely, these results call for more reservoirs and dams to control flow
and better ensure the availability of water in surplus in the wet season
during the dry seasons, where higher demand will strain the already reduced
supply of water in future years.

342

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

5. SUMMARY
This study investigated the potential impact of climate and land-coverchange on a local hydrological flow, by creating a simple analysis methodby integrating current data, models and technologies into common GIS
environment. However, these results are based on several assumptions in
simplifications. A more thorough study might address a non-uniform change
in precipitation and climate and more severe or other land cover change
scenarios.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are grateful to Ms. Janet He, an undergraduate student of Harvard
University, for her dedicated work to conduct the simulations in this study.
Also, we appreciate Mr. Tran Van Ty, a former graduate student of the
Asian Institute of Technology, for his valuable support of data collection inViet Nam. This study was supported financially by Research Fellowships of
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists.
REFERENCES
Beach, H.L., Hamner, J., Hewitt, J.J., Kaufman, E., Kurki, A., Oppenheimer,
J.A., Wolf, A.T. (2000) Transboundary Freshwater Dispute
Resolution: Theory, Practice, and Annotated References. Tokyo, New
York, Paris: United Nations University Press.
Beyene, T., D.P. Lettenmaier, and Kabat ,P (2007) Hydrologic impacts ofclimate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007
IPCC climate scenarios, Climatic Change (in review)
CarlBro Intelligent Solutions (2005) Sre Pok River Basin Profile, Report No.
T-203-1.
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at
Colombia University (2008) Population, Land Use, and Emissions(PLUE). Available at: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/.
Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R., Mays, L.W.(1988) Applied Hydrology.
McGraw-Hill Series in Water Resources and Envrionmental
Engineering. McGraw-Hill.
Christofides, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Efstratiadis A., N. Mammassis (2008)
On the credibility of Climate Predictions. Hydrological Sciences.
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Considering the Impact of Climate and Land Cover Change on a Local Hydrological Flow: The Case Studyof Srepok River Basin in Viet Nam and Cambodia343

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Kiem, A.S., Ishidaira, H., Hapuarachchi, H.P., Zhou, M.C., Hirabayashi, Y.,
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resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. vander Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 173-210.
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McCuen, R.H. (1982) A Guide to Hydrologic Analysis Using SCS Methods,
Prentice Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
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Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper,
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Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
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Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population
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344

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STUDY ON RELAXATION MEASURES FOROUTDOOR THERMAL ENVIRONMENT ONPRESENT URBAN BLOCKS IN TOKYOUSING COUPLED SIMULATION OF
CONVECTION, RADIATION AND
CONDUCTION
HONG CHEN,1 RYOZO OOKA,2 HONG HUANG,2
and TAKASHI TSUCHIYA,2
1
School of Architecture and Urban Planning,
Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China
2
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japanchenhong.hust@gmail.com
ABSTRACTThe heat island phenomenon and degradation of the urban thermal
environmental have become serious problems in Japan. In order to improve
the outdoor thermal environment, it is necessary to understandquantitatively the effects of various measures. In this paper, the authors have
performed coupled simulations of convection, radiation and conduction toevaluate the outdoor thermal environment over different present urban
blocks: �temachi as representative of a high-rise area and Kyobashi as a
mid-rise area in Tokyo, Japan, to compare the effects of measures such as
the heat-release point and means of air-conditioning, greening, high surface
albedo, and traffic volume. The results showed that the effectiveness ofmoderation measures differed according to the configuration of the urban
blocks.
1. INTRODUCTION
The heat island phenomenon has become considerably worse, and causes
various other problems, such as an increase in the number of heat disorders
or tropical nights. The underlying reasons behind the heat island
phenomenon are considered to be the release of artificial heat, change insurface coverage due to urbanization, and a reduction in green space.
Various measures to moderate the heat island phenomenon have been
proposed and researched, and their effectiveness evaluated using numericalsimulations. Although these effects are highly dependent on the property ofeach city block, insufficient comparison has been made of these effects
between different city blocks. Therefore, the authors undertook coupledsimulations of convection, radiation and conduction to evaluate the outdoor
thermal environment over two different present urban blocks in Tokyo:
�temachi, as a high-rise business district, and Kyobashi, which is typified
by mid-rise business district. The cases are set to compare the effects of345

October 2008, Beijing, China

measures such as the heat-release point and means of air-conditioning, as
well as greening, high surface albedo, and traffic volume.
2. ANALYSIS
2.1 Analysis outline
In this study, the numerical method of coupled simulations ofconvection, radiation, and conduction developed by the authors (H. Chen etal. 2004) (S. Yoshida et al. 2000) was used. Figure 1 shows an analysis
outline. Using input data concerning the place, weather, urban configuration,material and surface, the ground and wall surface temperatures arecalculated using radiation simulation. After that, the surface temperature isused as a boundary condition for computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
simulations, which are then performed.
[1] Input Conditions[2] Coupled Simulation of Convection,
Radiation, and Conduction

Input Data 1
Date
�Date �Radiation
�Weather Conditions
�Cloud Cover
Input Data 2
Place
�Latitude
�Longtude

Radiation
Simulation
�Direction

Input Data 3 Urban Configuration
�Housing per Hectare
�Floor Space Index �Floor Height
Input Data 4 Material and Surface
�Convection Heat Transfer Coefficient�Long wavelength absorptance�Albedo�evaporation efficiency
�Window Share

Conduction Simulationof Ground and Walls

Feedback
CFD

Surface Temp.

Artificial Heat
ReleaseArtificial Heat
Release Cal.

Figure 1: Analysis Outline

Analysis Target

Analysis Target(1) �temachi (2) Kyobashi
Figure 2: Analysis Targets

346

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31(1) �temachi (2) Kyobashi
Figure 3: Analysis Models
Table 1: Urban Configuration of Simulation Models
Mean Gross Building Coverage
Mean Net Building Coverage
Legal Floor Space Index
Mean Floor Space Index
Mean Building Height�temachi
75.8%
62.9%
900% or 1300%
1179.0%67.4m

Kyobashi
86.9%
71.2%
600%�800%
664.3%
28.6m

2.2 Analysis target and model
Figure 2 shows the analysis targets. �temachi represents a typicalhigh-rise business district, while Kyobashi is a typical mid-rise business
district in Tokyo. �temachi and Kyobashi are located to the west and east ofTokyo station respectively. Table 1 illustrates the urban configuration ofeach domain, as calculated using simulation models. While �temachi has
wider spaces between its buildings, those in Kyobashi are crowded.
Figure 3 shows the simulation analysis models based on GIS data.
They incorporate an unstructured grid system. The model for �temachi is1,930 m (W) � 2,720 m (L) � 600 m (H), with 379,706 grids. The Kyobashi
model is 2,460 m (W) � 3,630 m (L) � 600 m (H), with 372,000 grids. The
analysis targets are set on some blocks near the center.
2.3 Analysis cases
Tables 2 and 3 show the analysis cases in �temachi and Kyobashi
respectively. Ten cases are adopted for �temachi, and nine for Kyobashi.
Cases 1-1 and 2-1 are basic cases. Cases 1-0 and 2-0 are without any
artificial heat release. Cases 1-3, 1-4, 2-3 and 2-4 involve the buildings’
roofs in the target area being changed to high-albedo or greening surfaces.
Cases 1-5, 1-6, 1-7, 1-8 and 2-4, 2-5, 2-6 involve high-albedo, greening or
water retention of the road and ground surface in the target area. Cases 1-9
and 2-8 concern the release of heat from traffic.

Study on Relaxation Measures for Outdoor Thermal Environment on Present Urban Blocks in Tokyo Using
Coupled Simulation of Convection, Radiation and Conduction347

October 2008, Beijing, China

Road

Case
Case 1-0
Case 1-1
Case 1-2
Case 1-3
Case 1-4

Water
High
Reten
Albedo
tion
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

Table 2: Analysis Cases (�temachi)
Traffic
Heat
Release
No
No
No
No
No

GroundBuilding RoofRate of Greening
green

High
AlbedoHeat Release
Sensible Latent
Heat
Heat

Release
Point

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

0%
0%
0%
100%
0%

0%
0%
0%
0%
100%

0%
30%
100%
30%
30%

0%
70%
0%
70%
70%

�
Roof
Roof
Roof
Roof

Case 1-5

100
%

0%

No

100%

0%

0%

30%

70%

Roof

Case 1-6
Case 1-7

0%
0%

0%
100%

No
No

100%
0%

100%
0%

0%
0%

30%
30%

70%
70%

Roof
Roof

Case 1-8

0%

100%

No

100%

0%

0%

30%

70%

Roof

Case 1-9

0%

0%

Yes

0%

100%

0%

30%

70%

Roof

Search Points
No heat release
Basic CaseAC Heat: Sensible
Roof: Greening
Roof: High Albedo
Road: Water
Retention
Ground: Greening
Ground: Greening
Road: High Albedo
Road: High Albedo
Ground: Greening
Traffic Heat

Table 3: Analysis Cases (Kyobashi)
Road

Water
Case
High
Reten
Albedotion
Case 2-0 0%0%

Traffic
Heat
ReleaseNo

GroundBuilding RoofRate of Greening Highgreen
AlbedoHeat Release
Sensible Latent
Heat
Heat

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Case 2-1

0%

0%

No

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Case 2-2

0%

0%

No

0%

0%

0%

10%

90%

Case 2-3

0%

0%

No

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Case 2-4

0%

0%

No

0%

100%

0%

100%

0%

Case 2-5

0%

0%

No

0%

0%

100%

100%

0%

Case 2-6 100%

0%

No

100%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Case 2-7

0%

100%

No

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Case 2-8

0%

0%

Yes

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

ReleasePoint

Search Points

�No heat release
Roof: 50%
Basic case
Side: 50%
Roof:
All Heat from Roof100%
AC Heat: Latent 90%
Roof:
All Heat from Roof100%
Roof: 50%
Roof: Greening
Side: 50%
Roof: 50%
Roof: High Albedo
Side: 50%
Road: Water
Roof: 50%
Retention
Side: 50%Ground: Greening
Roof: 50%
Road: High Albedo
Side: 50%
Roof: 50%
Traffic Heat
Side: 50%

2.4 Analysis conditions
15:00 on July 23rd – a fine day weather-wise – was set for the analysis.
The sun was at an attitude of 45.1º, the wind was southerly at a velocity of
3.0 m/s at a height of 74.6 m. The inflow wind velocity is set at 1/4th power
profile. The air temperature was 31.6ºC, with a relative humidity of 58%.
Table 4 shows the building and ground conditions. The temperature inside
the building was fixed at 26ºC, and the buildings are considered to be madefrom concrete. The albedo and long wavelength emissivity of concrete were
set to 0.2 and 0.9, respectively. Indoor convection heat transfer coefficientwas 4.64 [W/m2 K].
The ground temperature was fixed at 26.0ºC under 0.5 m, and theground surface was covered with asphalt. The albedo and long wavelength
emissivity of asphalt were set to 0.1 and 0.95, respectively.
The Discrete Transfer Method (DTM) was used for the radiation simulation.
In the CFD simulation, the turbulence model adopted was the standard k-�model. The side and upper boundary was free slip. At the wall boundary, thewind velocity followed the generalized log law.

348

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Table 4: Building and Ground Conditions

Building

GroundWall
AlbedoThickness
Indoor Convection Heat Transfer Coefficient
Indoor Air TemperatureLong Wavelength Emissivity
GroundAlbedoThickness
Long Wavelength Emissivity
Ground Temp.

Concrete
0.2
0.2m
4.64 [W/m2K]
26ºC
0.9
Asphalt
0.1
0.5m
0.95
26ºC
(under 0.5 m)

2.5 Setting of artificial heat release
The buildings’ internal heat load was assumed using the product of thetotal floor area and the unit heat load intensity (Research and Exploratory
Committee 2003). While all air-conditioning heat was assumed to bereleased from the roof in the �temachi area, half of the air-conditioning heat
was assumed to be released from the roof with the rest from the sides of thebuildings in the Kyobashi area because the �temachi urban block is
composed of large buildings which have cooling towers, whereas manysmall buildings in the Kyobashi area have installed single-room airconditioners.
3. ANALYSIS RESULTS
3.1 �temachi area
Horizontal distribution of wind velocity and air temperature: Figure
4 shows the horizontal distribution of the wind velocity at a height of 1.5 m
throughout �temachi in order to evaluate the pedestrian area. Figure 5
illustrates the horizontal distribution of the air temperature in Case 1-1.
There is a relationship in so far as that the air temperature is higher where
the wind is weaker. In particular, the wind is weakened and the airtemperature rises on the leeward side of the buildings.
Figure 6 shows the differences in air temperature from the basic case (Case1-1) at a height of 1.5 m. Image (1) shows the result for Case 1-3, in which
the roof surface is greened. In Case 1-3, there is not a large difference.
Changing the roof material hardly affects the air temperature in thepedestrian area. Image (2) presents Case 1-5, in which the ground surface ischanged into a water-retaining material. The air temperature broadly falls.
This decrease is particularly noteworthy on the leeward side of the buildings.
Image (3) presents Case 1-9, in which heat is released from traffic. The
same trend as in Case 1-5 is exhibited, and the maximum increase in air
temperature is more than 1ºC.
Horizontal Distribution of Impact Index: In order to compare theinfluence of surface temperature, air-conditioning heat release and traffic
heat release, the impact index, as presented by the author [Note 1] (Chen H. etal. 2007) was calculated. Figure 8 shows the Horizontal Distribution of
Study on Relaxation Measures for Outdoor Thermal Environment on Present Urban Blocks in Tokyo Using
Coupled Simulation of Convection, Radiation and Conduction349

October 2008, Beijing, China

Impact Index at 1.5 m height. Image (1) shows the affect of a surface
temperature rise of 1ºC. The surface temperature of the buildings has asubstantial effect on the air temperature. Specifically, it affects the small
canopy space and areas next to the buildings remarkably. Image (2) presents
the air-conditioning heat release. This has no discernible effect on the airtemperature in the pedestrian area. Image (3) is of the traffic heat release.
Compared to the building surfaces, this affects a larger area.
NN�m/s �

-3-5-9(2) Case1(3) Case1
Figure5 Horizontal Distribution (1) Case1
otemachi(Roof: Greening)(Road: Water Retained) (Traffic Heatelease)Rof Wind Velocity in
O
[ ºC]
)
-1)( Height: 1.5m
(Basic Case
) Figure7 Difference of Temp)(Height:1.5m
eraturefrom Basic Case inotemachi(Case1
O
N

N

[ºC]

[ ºC]

(2) Air-conditioning(3)Traffic Heat Release(1)Building Surface
Figure6 Horizontal Distribution
Heat Releaseof Temperature inotemachiOo in O temachi (Height:1.5m)(Basic Case) (Height:1.5m)
Figure8 Horizontal Distribution of Impact Index

3.2 Kyobashi area
Horizontal distribution of Wind velocity and air temperature: Figure
8 shows the horizontal distribution of wind velocity at a height of 1.5 m in
Kyobashi to evaluate the pedestrian area. Figure 9 shows the horizontal
distribution of air temperature. As in �temachi, there is a relationshipbetween the wind and air temperature. However, compared to �temachi, themaximum air temperature is much higher because the buildings are crowded
together and the wind has limited opportunity to exhaust the heat from thesmall canopies in Kyobashi.
Figure 10 shows the differences in air temperature compared to thebasic case (Case 2-1) at a height of 1.5 m. Image (1) is of Case 2-4, in which
the roof is greened. Image (2) shows Case 2-7, in which the ground androads are greened or changed to water-retaining materials. While changing
the roof material only cuts the air temperature a little, changing the road andground materials sharply curtails the air temperature. As in �temachi, the airtemperature falls in small canopies and where the wind is weak. Image (3)concerns Case 2-9, which is of traffic heat release. The air temperature
increases locally. Compared with on the road, in the small canopies, it
increases considerably. The maximum increase exceeds 1ºC. There areseveral locations where the air temperature decreases. The reason isassumed to be that the flow field has been significantly affected by the large
traffic heat release.
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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Horizontal Distribution of Impact Index: Figure 11 illustrates
horizontal distribution of the impact index. Image (1) shows the effects ofthe building surfaces. These have a broad effect on the target area. The
impact is especially pronounced near to the buildings and in small canopies
where the wind is weak. Image (2) shows the difference from airconditioning heat release compared to the basic case (Case 2-1). Because
half of the air-conditioning heat release is from the sides of buildings in the
Kyobashi area, its impact is massive and has a strong local effect. Near to
any sideways release of heat generates an air temperature increase in excess
of 2ºC. Image (3) concerns traffic heat release. Compared with airconditioning heat release, its effect is primarily along the road, but it also
has a local effect, such as in small canopies.
N

N

[m/s]

(1) Case2-4(2) Case2-7(3) Case2-8
Figure 9 Horizontal Distribution[ºC]
of Wind Velocity in Kyobashi(Roof: Greening)(Road: Water Retained)(Traffic Heat Release)( Basic Case)
Figure11 Difference of Temperature from Basic Case in Kyobashi (Case2-1)( Height: 1.5m)
�Height:1.5m
�

N

N

[ºC]

[ºC]

(3) Traffic Heat Release
Figure 10 Horizontal Distribution (1) Building Surface(2) Air-conditioningof Temperature in Kyobashi
Heat Release(Basic Case) (Height:1.5m)
Figure 12 Horizontal Distribution of Impact Indexin Kyobashi (Height: 1.5m)

4. COMPARISON BETWEEN �TEMACHI AND KYOBASHI AREAS
In order to compare the effect of urban block configurations, the mean
velocity, mean air temperature, and mean impact index at 1.5 m were
calculated. Table 5 shows the mean air temperature and wind velocity in thetarget area. In both areas, Cases 1-0 and 2-0, in which there is no heatreleased, the mean wind velocity decreases. Furthermore, the release of
traffic heat increases the air temperature by more than 0.2ºC in both areas.
In addition, the wind velocity clearly increases in Cases 1-9 and 2-8.
Table 6 shows the mean impact index. In �temachi, because thebuildings are high, the release of air-conditioning heat from roofs hardly has
any effect. For the same reason, the roofs do not have any tangible effectalthough their surface temperature is high. In Kyobashi, the roofs and southfacing walls have a pronounced effect because the buildings are mid-risetypes and the surface temperature of south-facing walls and roofs are higher
than the other surfaces. Furthermore, the release of air-conditioning heat has
a notable effect too.
Study on Relaxation Measures for Outdoor Thermal Environment on Present Urban Blocks in Tokyo Using
Coupled Simulation of Convection, Radiation and Conduction351

October 2008, Beijing, China

�temachiTable 5: Mean Air Temperature and Wind Velocity

Case

Mean Air
Temperature
[ºC]

1-0
1-1
1-2
1-3
1-4
1-5
1-6
1-7
1-8
1-9

32.96
32.96
32.96
32.96
32.96
32.82
32.93
32.86
32.82
33.16

Mean
Wind
Velocity
[m/s]
1.47
1.51
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.45
1.48
1.49
1.48
1.58

Kyobashi
Case

Mean Air
Temperature[ºC]

Mean Wind
Velocity
[m/s]

2-0
2-1
2-2
2-3
2-4
2-5
2-6
2-7
2-8

32.99
33.19
32.97
33.07
33.20
33.18
33.05
33.07
33.57

0.90
1.19
1.10
1.26
1.16
1.15
1.17
1.25
1.28

Table 6: Mean Impact Index [ºC]
East
West
South
North
Roof
All Surfaces
Air-conditioning
Traffic

�temachi
0.052
0.042
0.060
0.037
0.004
0.195
0.019
0.232

Kyobashi
0.005
0.052
0.117
0.020
0.108
0.303
0.205
0.381

5. CONCLUSIONS(1) In the high-rise �temachi and mid-rise Kyobashi business districts,
coupled simulations of conduction, radiation and convection have been
performed. With cases showing changes to the heat release point and meansof air-conditioning, as well as greening, high surface albedo , and traffic
volume, various measures for moderating the thermal environment arequantitatively compared.
(2) In both of the �temachi and Kyobashi areas, artificial heat release fromtraffic increases the air temperature in the overall target area at a height of
1.5 m; in particular, the leeward sides of the buildings are strongly affected.
By the same token, the relaxation measures concerning the ground and roadsurfaces affect both areas.
(3) While the heat released from the air-conditioning systems does notincrease the air temperature at a height of 1.5 m in �temachi, it increases
the air temperature locally; and in narrow streets with low wind velocity, theair temperature increase is especially notable. It was shown that theeffectiveness of the relaxation measures differs depending on theconfiguration of the urban blocks.
NOTE
The impact index for outdoor thermal environment focuses on
sensible heat to evaluate the influence on air temperature increases of open

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ICUS Report 31

spaces from heat flux from building walls and the ground, and artificial heatrelease.
a) Impact index of sensible heat from building surface to outdoor thermal
environment [ºC]� �Tairj ��� � �Ti � Tai �
imp jw � ��
� �Twalli �b) Impact index of heat release from building equipment to outdoor thermal
environment [ºC]
imp jb � �T jb � T j �c) Impact index of traffic heat release to outdoor thermal environment [ºC]
imp jr � �T jr � T j �

Abbreviations:impjw: Impact index of building surface at cell j
impjb: Impact index of heat release from building equipment at cell j
impjr: Impact index of traffic heat release at cell j�Tairj: Air temperature rise at cell j (case of high wall temperature – basiccase)�Twalli: Surface temperature rise at wall i (i: north, south, east, and west)
Ti: Surface temperature of wall iTai: Mean air temperature of cell attached to wall
Tjb: Air temperature of cell j considering air-conditioning heat release
Tj: Air temperature of cell j in basic case
Tjr: Air temperature of cell j considering traffic heat release
REFERENCES
Chen Hong et al., 2007, Study on the Impact of Buildings on the Outdoor
Thermal Environment Based on a Coupled Simulation of Convection,
Radiation, and Conduction, ASHRAE Transactions, Volume 113, Part2.
Chen Hong et al., 2004, Study on outdoor thermal environment of apartment
block in Shenzhen, China with coupled simulation of convection,
radiation and conduction, Energy and Buildings, Volume 36,
1247~1258
Research and Exploratory Committee for Artificial Heat of the Heat Island
Phenomenon, 2003, Report of the Heat Island Relaxation Measures byDepressed Artificial Heat in Urban Areas in 2003. (In Japanese)
http://www.env.go.jp/air/report/h16-05/
Yoshida Shinji et al., 2000, CFD Prediction of Thermal Comfort in
Microscale Wind Climate, Computational Wind Engineering 2000,
27~30

Study on Relaxation Measures for Outdoor Thermal Environment on Present Urban Blocks in Tokyo Using
Coupled Simulation of Convection, Radiation and Conduction353

October 2008, Beijing, China

354

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

DEVELOPMENT OF E-LEARNINGCONTENTS FOR INCREASING
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPACITY OF
DOCTORS AND NURSES IN KEY
DISASTER HOSPITALSMIHO Y. OHARA1, YOICHI KITSUTA2, NAOKI YAHAGI2,
FUJIO KOYAMA3 SANAE MIYAZAKI and KIMIRO MEGURO4
1
Center for Integrated Disaster Information Research,
Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies,
The University of Tokyo, Japan
2
The University of Tokyo Hospital, Japan
3
Division for Environment, Health and Safety,
The University of Tokyo, Japan
4
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering,
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japanohara@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
Hospitals should accommodate a lot of seriously-injured victims incase of a big earthquake. The best way to increase hospital’s emergency
response capacity is to increase the number of the doctors, nurses and otherstaffs who can imagine the disaster situations realistically so that they cantake proper actions before a future event. In this paper, an e-learning
system to train doctors and nurses on emergency medical responses ispresented. The-learning program consisted of three parts. The first part
aimed at understanding the priorities of emergency medical response
through decision-making simulation and learning detailed procedures on
hospital disaster manual. The second part aimed at learning how to quickly
triage many patients. The third part aimed at acquiring practical techniques
for triage and treatment through decision-making simulations. In decisionmaking simulations, a learner could experience typical confusing situations
that may occur after an earthquake and imagine his/her reactions in eachcase. About 250 doctors and 800 nurses finished learning in September,2007. Questionnaires were done before and after the-learning in order toassess the effect of the e-learning. More than 80% of the learners answeredthat they could imagine the disaster situation by e-learning. The authors
think that e-learning is a very effective tool to share the common images ofdisaster situations among staffs and simultaneously familiarize them withthe emergency medical response manual.
1. INTRODUCTION
Recently, Japan is at risk of being hit by several huge earthquakes such as
Tokyo Inland Earthquake, Tokai Earthquake, Tonankai Earthquake and355

October 2008, Beijing, China

Nankai Earthquake. Hospitals should accommodate a lot of seriouslyinjured victims in case such big earthquakes occur in the future. The best
way to increase hospital’s emergency response capacity is to increase thenumber of doctors, nurses and other staffs who can imagine the disastersituations realistically so that they can take proper actions before a future
event. In Japan, key disaster hospitals must have disaster training every year.
However, the number of the staffs who join it is very limited because
hospitals cannot stop their daily routine of caring for patients. As a result, it
is very difficult for hospital staff to get familiar with the emergency medical
response manual, even if informative manuals are published.
In this paper, an e-learning system to train doctors and nurses on
emergency medical responses is presented. This system was developed andoperated at the University of Tokyo Hospital, one of the key disaster
hospitals in Tokyo, Japan. About 250 doctors and 800 nurses finishedlearning in September, 2007. Questionnaires were done before and after thelearning and answers were analyzed in order to survey the effect of elearning.
2. OUTLINE OF E-LEARNING SYSTEM
2.1

Benefits of e-learning system

After the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, key disaster hospitals were assigned
to accommodate seriously-injured disaster victims. Large scale hospitals
with earthquake resistant facilities are usually selected as key disaster
hospitals. A key disaster hospital must have more than 200 beds. The
average number of beds of key disaster hospitals in Tokyo is about 600.
Large hospitals have many staffs and it is difficult to build the common
understanding of emergency medical responses among them. Especially,
nurses work two or three shifts and it is impossible to give seminars to all ofthem at the same time. In large hospitals, staffs are usually doing their daily
works via intranet system and they are familiar with using PC. In thissituation, e-learning system may be useful because all the staffs can study
the common material at their most convenient time.
2.2

Objectives of e-learning

The purpose of disaster medicine is “to provide appropriate medical
treatment at the right place and at the right time.” In order to achieve thispurpose, the Advanced Life Support Group in the U.K. proposed sevenpriorities of emergency medical responses in its education program named“Major Incident Medical Management and Support (MIMMS)”. Theses
priorities are called as "CSCATTT" taking initials of each step. The firststep of emergency medical response is to recognize their roles. The second
step is to establish their safety by wearing gloves, masks and helmets. The
third step is to prepare equipments for communication and the fourth is toassess whether there are victims and building damage. After that, triage andtreatment will start. Patients will be transported if necessary. This time, e-

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learning system was developed to study what to be done in each stage of"CSCATTT".
C: Command
S: Safety
C: Communication
A: Assessment
T: Triage
T: Treatment
T: Transport
2.3

Methodology to develop e-learning systeme-learning system was developed by using the software published by
Sharp System Product Corporation. This consists of software for creating
educational materials and managing education on the web. Learners canaccess the system through the intranet/internet at any time. Only a web
browser is necessary on the user side and new capital investment is not
required for them. Answers to the questions are recorded on the server andthe e-learning manager can check the understanding level of each learner.
2.4

Contents of e-learning

The-learning program consisted of three parts. The contents of eachpart and the number of web page are listed in the Table 1. The first part
aimed at understanding the priorities of emergency medical response
through the decision-making simulation and learning detailed procedures on
the hospital disaster manual. Figure 1 is an example of a page of thedecision-making simulation. In the simulation, a learner could experience
typical confusing situations after an earthquake occurred and imagine
his/her proper reaction in each case. In the simulation, the best response is toreturn to the staff station as soon as possible and get instructions on his/herrole from the leader because C:Command is the first priority among
all .When he/she does not choose the right answer, he/she has to do thesimulation again following the advice. The second part aimed at learning
how to quickly triage many patients. It contained movies instructing how to
triage patients and several triage exercises. The third part aimed at acquiring
practical techniques for triage and treatment through decision-making
simulations.
Photos and video images taken during past disasters and disaster drills
were used for comprehensive explanation of the hospital disaster manual.
No.
�

Table 1 Contents of each part of the e-learning

Classification
Contents
CSCATTTFirst action at the time of a big earthquake
Knowledge
The possibility of a big inland
earthquake in the capital area
Explanation
The aim of this e-learning
What should be done just after a Command
Simulation andbig inland earthquake in a
Questions
hospital ward?
What should be done when going Safety
back to a staff station?

Pages
2
1
8-19
3

Development of E-learning Contents for Increasing Emergency Response Capacity of Doctors and Nurses in
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October 2008, Beijing, China
No.

2

3

Classification

Contents
CSCATTT
Pages
What should be done at a staff
Command2
station?
Answers and a
A priority at the time of disaster1
Commentary
Staff role allotment
Command1
How to communicate between a
Communicat 1
ward and the hospital control
ion
centerChecklist of each room and ward Assessment
1
Medical response at the time of a big earthquake 1: Basic triage method
Explanation
Review of No.1
1
Simulation and
What should be done at a staff
Command2
Questions
station?
The role of a leader of doctors /Command2
nursesWhat is needed when going to a2
catchment area?
Explanation
What is triage?
Triage1Study how to triage according to Triage
6
START method through video
Questions andTriage exercise (4 cases)
Triage4
Answers
Medical response at the time of a big earthquake 2: Triage simulation
Explanation
Review of No.2
1
Simulation and
How to perform the triage in a
Triage10
Questionsreal ward
Explanation
What is treatment at the time ofTreatment
4
disaster?
Questions andWhat is needed for treatment at
Treatment
2
Answers
the time of disaster?

Figure 1: Decision-making simulation in the first part of the e-learning

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Figure 2: Explanation of response manual in the first part of the e-learning
3. EFFECT OF E-LEARNING SYSTEM
Login ID, password, and URL were sent to doctors and nurses of the
University of Tokyo Hospital on August 21, 2007 and they were requested
to carry out the-learning before the disaster drill on September 4, 2007.
Questionnaires were done before and immediately after the-learning tomeasure its effectiveness. As of October 1, all the data was summarized andthe trends of the answers were analyzed.
3.1. Characteristics of learners
The numbers of doctors who learned the first, second, and third parts
were 310, 275 and 256, respectively. The number of learners amounted to
15% of the total number of doctors in the hospital. 20% The numbers ofnurses who learned the first, second and third parts were 844, 786 and 795,
respectively. The number of learners amounted to 70% of the total numberof nurses in the hospital. The number of doctors and nurses who finished elearning was 10 times the number of the participants of the annually held
hospital disaster drill. Through the e-learning, many staffs could have acommon understanding of a disaster situation.
Figure 3 shows when doctors and nurses learned each part. Most of thedoctors learned during daytime. On the other hand, learning time of thenurses had three peaks at 4-6 p.m., 9 a.m. and midnight. It was verified thate-learning system has the advantage that learners can study at their mostconvenient time.
3.2. Disaster awareness before-learning
Before e-learning, a questionnaire about disaster awareness was done.
Q1 was a question asking if the respondent thought that a big earthquake
would occur in the near future. About 80% of doctors and nurses answered
Development of E-learning Contents for Increasing Emergency Response Capacity of Doctors and Nurses in
Key Disaster Hospitals359

October 2008, Beijing, China

��
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that they thought it would occur. Q2 was a question asking if they felt
uneasy when they imagined what to do in case of a big earthquake. 94% of
the nurses and 77% of the doctors felt uneasy as shown in Figure 4. Morenurses had anxieties than doctors. There was no difference of answers
according to ages and leading positions of the learners.

Time
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Figure 3: Learning time of doctors and nurses
Nurses������(N=824)

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(N=236)

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Figure 4: Learners’ anxiety to a big earthquake
3.3. Effect of decision-making simulation in the first learning
The decision-making simulation in the first part of the-learning aimed
at making learners imagine how severe a disaster situation was. After thelearning, a questionnaire was done in order to survey if the decision-making
simulation could give them a real disaster image. Figure 5 shows thelearners’ feelings after the simulation. 80% of the doctors and 90% of thenurses were able to image the disaster situation, but only 30% of the doctors
and 15% of the nurses were confident that they would respond well in caseof an earthquake. 50% of the doctors and 75% of the nurses felt uneasy evenafter finishing the-learning. It was verified that the decision-making
simulation by e-learning succeeded in giving disaster image to learners but
additional training was necessary for giving them confidence on theirappropriate medical response.
Figure 6 shows the feelings of leader nurses and other nurses after thedecision-making simulation. Leader nurses are those with positions such as
chief nurses or sub-chief nurses. The ratio of leader nurses who had
confidence on a proper response in case of an earthquake was twice the ratioof other nurses. The decision-making simulation in the e-learning was
especially effective for leader nurses.

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

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Nurses(N=824) �

���

���

Doctors(N=236)

�

��

��

��

���

���

���

���

��

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Able to image the situation in case of an earthquake and confident to respond properly
Able to image the situation in case of an earthquake but uneasy to respond properly
Not able to image the situation in case of an earthquake through this e-learning
E-learning is useless because a big earthquake will not happen

Figure 5: Feelings after the decision-making simulation

Others(N=739) ���Leaders(N=84)

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Able to image the situation in case of an earthquake and confident to respond properly
Able to image the situation in case of an earthquake but uneasy to respond properly
Not able to image the situation in case of an earthquake through this e-learning
E-learning is useless because a big earthquake will not happen

Figure 6: Nurses’ Feelings after the decision-making simulation
3.4. Effect of all the-learning
Figure 7 shows the feelings of doctors and nurses after finishing all
the-learning. About 70% of the doctors and nurses wanted to learn aboutother disaster responses such as fire or manmade disasters because they felt
an e-learning was useful. 23% of the doctors and 43% of the nurses felt
necessary to have physical training because e-learning was only training on
website. The ratio of the nurses who felt necessary to have physical training
was almost twice the ratio of doctors. 10% of the doctors and nurses felt thatthe amount of e-learning was too much because it consisted of three parts.
The learners who felt that e-learning was meaningless were very few.

Development of E-learning Contents for Increasing Emergency Response Capacity of Doctors and Nurses in
Key Disaster Hospitals361

October 2008, Beijing, China
%
�����
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��

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Want to learn otherdisaster responses�����������
becauseE-learning is useful����������

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Amount of�������������
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Figure 7: Feelings after all the e-learning
4. CONCLUSIONSIn this paper, an e-learning system to train doctors and nurses on emergency
medical responses was presented. The contents were developed andoperated at the University of Tokyo Hospital, one of the key disaster
hospitals in Tokyo, Japan. It was developed using software and only a web
browser was necessary on the learners’ side. About 250 doctors and 800
nurses finished learning in September and October, 2007. The number oflearners amounted to 15% of the total number of doctors and 70% of thetotal number of nurses in the hospital.
The-learning program consisted of three parts. The first part aimed atunderstanding the priorities of emergency medical response throughdecision-making simulation and learning detailed procedures on the hospitaldisaster manual. 80% of the doctors and 90% of the nurses were able toimage the disaster situation. It was verified that the decision-making
simulation succeeded in giving disaster image to learners but additional
training was necessary to give them confidence of their emergency medical
response. Compared with the effect for leader nurses and other nurses, thedecision-making simulation was especially effective for leader nurses.
The second part aimed at learning how to triage numerous patients quickly.
The third part aimed at acquiring practical techniques for triage andtreatment through decision-making simulation. After all the-learning, about
70% of the doctors and nurses wanted to learn other disaster responses
because they felt e-learning was useful. 23% of the doctors and 43% of thenurses felt necessary to have physical training.
Based on this study, the authors think that e-learning is very effective
tool to share the common images of disaster situations among hospital staffs
and familiarize them with the emergency medical response manual. It could
also motivate learners to train more against other disasters. It will be more
effective if both e-learning and physical training are provided. The authors
are now developing other e-learning programs and training courses
combining e-learning and physical training.

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ICUS Report 31

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would also like to express our gratitude to Mr, H. Tsukada, Mr.
K. Akatsuka, Dr. K. Harada in the University of Tokyo Hospital for theirinvaluable comments to the e-learning contents.
REFERENCES
Tokyo Prefecture, 2003. Guideline of installation and operation of key
disaster hospitals, Japan.
Advanced Life Support Group, 2005. MIMMS: Major Incident Medical
Management and Support, 2nd Edition.

Development of E-learning Contents for Increasing Emergency Response Capacity of Doctors and Nurses in
Key Disaster Hospitals363

October 2008, Beijing, China

364

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR OF JAMUNAMULITIPURPOSEE BRIDGE DUE
TO VEHICULAR LOADINGMEHEDI AHMED ANSARY, SYED ZILLUR RAHMAN and RAQUIB AHSAN
Department of Civil Engineering, BUET, Bangladesh

ansary@ce.buet.ac.bd

ABSTRACTThe Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge is the longest and most important
bridge in Bangladesh which has established the long cherished road link
between the East and West of Bangladesh. The bridge is located in aseismically active region. Seismic pintles have been used for seismic
protection of the bridge. The bridge was instrumented with accelerometersin order to monitor the performance of the seismic devices as well as overall
dynamic behavior. Weight and speed of a vehicle are major concern for thebridge. Study has been conducted to observe the behavior of the bridge due
to vehicular movement in different weight and speed limit.
Train induces a lot of vibrations in the bridge when it is in higher
speed. Response of the bridge due to heavily loaded truck with high speed isgreater than that of the low speed train. When these kinds of trucks
frequently move on the bridge their response will be a major concern forthis bridge. Two weight groups of vehicle can be noticed. One group weighs
between 11 to 15 tons, which are buses and other group of vehicles 19 to 22
tones, which are trucks. From the response between two weight groups lessoverlapping in acceleration is found in the longitudinal direction and lessoverlapping in velocity is found in the transverse direction. Thus
acceleration data of the longitudinal direction and velocity data of thetransverse direction may be used for detection of overweight vehicles fromthe bridge response. If the response of the bridge exceeds 0.70 cm/sec2 inlongitudinal direction then the vehicle may exceed the weight limit of 20
tons or the speed limit of 40 km/h or the both. Then the vehicle can be
identified. Previously train used to move at higher speed, therefore responseof bridge was higher. Later the train is restricted to run in a lower speed.
Response due to two broad gauge rails is also studied. They both have a
speed of 17 km/h. But the response of presently recorded data due to train
movement is larger than the previously recorded data. This may be due tothe recently occurred cracks in the bridge.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge is instrumented with accelerometers inorder to monitor overall dynamic behavior. The accelerometers are also
used for different types of vehicular and train data acquisition by keyboard

365

October 2008, Beijing, China

triggering. Weight and speed of vehicle as well as speed of train is the major
concern for the bridge. An analysis has been done to observe the behavior of
the bridge due to vehicular movement under different speed and weight
limit. Train induces a lot of vibrations in the bridge when it is in higher
speed.
2. COLLECTION OF DATA
Ambient data, Traffic data, Train data are recorded by the seismic
instrumentation system. Sensors collect input data (earthquake excitation ornoise) and record them. Data is triggered by giving an impulse in thesensors. This is done by keyboard trigger using Altus QuickTalk (ATLUS
QuickTalk, 1996-2000) and QuickLook (ATLUS QuickLook, 1994-2000)
software. After collecting data, it is necessary to process this data bysoftware. In this analysis, Microcal Origin (Origin, 1991-2000) is used toobtain corrected acceleration time history and Fast Fourier Transform ofnoise data from various stations. Time history plots of 13 bridge sensors canbe produced simultaneously by the system installed in the bridge. Various
ambient, train, truck and bus data are collected by this installed system. Data
for individual train can be collected by these accelerometers with the help ofGPS. The data of individual vehicle and also in a group are collected withrespect to the GMT time. After collection of these data, the individual data
is separated according to the time of recording. Speed limit of vehicles on
the Jamuna Bridge is 40 km/h. It can be observed that trucks and buses are
frequently exceeding the speed limit. Speed of a vehicle is measured withthe help of a speed gun and weight of a vehicle is measured by the weighing
machines installed at both sides of the bridge.
3. RESPONSE OF THE BRIDGE IN DIFFERENT LOADINGThe data were collected from the instrument in raw format. This data werecorrected with the help of the SMA and Microcal Origin. Time histories ofearthquake events or vehicular response values are obtained after
corrections. Time history data on deck (BR5) of trains, trucks and buses arerecorded in different time. This time domain data are converted to frequency
domain data with the help of Fourier Transform. Following the Caltech
format, Fourier spectrum is evaluated with the software Origin 5.0. For thisanalysis 45 Hz of cut off frequency is used. Then it is smoothen with 15point Adjacent-Averaging technique. This smoothen technique is perform to
get smooth curves and clear peaks. Fourier spectrum of amplitude vs.
frequency is plotted with this smoothened data. Peaks of lower frequenciesof the Fourier Spectrum are important for a bridge from earthquake
consideration.
Train and truck excite the bridge with comparatively greater load. Due
to huge input energy bridge excites close to its predominant frequency
which is described earlier. Moreover other vehicles like bus, motorcycle, zip
etc. have lower energy input. Therefore, peaks are not clear in the Fourier
Spectrum. BR 1, BR 5 and BR 11 are the sensors in transverse direction.

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These sensors show predominant frequency of 1 Hz and 3 Hz in the Figures
1, 5 and 10 respectively for different train, truck and bus data recorded indifferent times. BR 2, BR 6 and BR 10 are the sensors in longitudinal
direction. These sensors show a predominant frequency of 2 Hz in Figures 2,
6 and 9 respectively. BR3, BR4, BR7 and BR9 are the sensors in the verticaldirection. These sensors show a predominant frequency of 2.5 Hz in Figure
3, 4, 7 and 8 respectively.
0.04

0.07
03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

Amplitude in cm/s

0.04

03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

0.03
2

2

0.05

Amplitude in cm/s

0.06

0.03
0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01
0.00
0.1

1

0.00

10

0.1

Frequency in Hz

Figure 1: Fourier Spectrum of BR1X
for various traffic loads.

10

Figure 2: Fourier Spectrum of BR2Y
for various traffic loads.

0.04

0.05
03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GM T)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 G MT)

0.02

03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

2

0.04

Amplitude in cm/s

2

0.03

Amplitude in cm/s

1Frequency in Hz

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.1

1

0.00

10

Frequency in Hz

1

10Frequency in Hz

Figure 3: Fourier Spectrum of
BR3Z for various traffic loads.

Figure 4: Fourier Spectrum of BR4Z
for various traffic loads.

0.08

0.05
03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

2

0.04

Amplitude in cm/s

2

0.06

Amplitude in cm/s

0.1

0.04

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00
0.1

1

10

Frequency in Hz

Figure 5: Fourier Spectrum of BR5X
for various traffic loads.

0.00

0.1

1

10

Frequency in Hz

Figure 6: Fourier Spectrum of BR6Y
for various traffic loads.

Dynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurposee Bridge due to Vehicular Loading367

October 2008, Beijing, China

0.06
03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

0.04

03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

0.05

Amplitude in cm/s2

Amplitude in cm/s

2

0.06

0.02

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.1

1

0.00

10

Frequency in Hz

0.08
03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

0.03

0.06

0.02

0.01

0.1

1

03-05-2007 (Train 6:22 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Train 7:23 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Truck 6:46 GMT)
03-05-2007 (Bus 6:49 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:13:28 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Bus 6:22:06 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 5:13:32 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:41:40 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Truck 6:31:35 GMT)
09-08-2007 (Train 6:28:15 GMT)

2

0.04

Amplitude in cm/s

0.05

2

10

Figure 8: Fourier Spectrum of BR9Z
for various traffic loads.

0.06

Amplitude in cm/s

1Frequency in Hz

Figure 7: Fourier Spectrum of BR7Z forvarious traffic loads.

0.00

0.1

10

Frequency in Hz

0.04

0.02

0.00

0.1

1

10

Frequency in Hz

Figure 9: Fourier Spectrum of BR10Y
for various traffic loads.

Figure 10: Fourier Spectrum of BR11X
for various traffic loads.

The dynamic response of a bridge due to passing a vehicle depends on
the weight and velocity of the vehicle. Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge is abusy transport facility. So, superposition occurs between responses ofsuccessive passing vehicles. Moreover, wind, wave and stream of riverwater cause ambient vibration, which also have effect on the response. If aheavy vehicle (e.g. train) passes, then other vehicles have unrecognizableeffect on the response of the bridge. For a very small weight vehicle (e.g.
motorcycle) no visible impact on the response of the bridge occurs.
Maximum acceleration of the train data is the smallest for a train without
any simultaneous traffic. Such data were recorded on a hartal day. Lower
frequency peaks of the Fourier Spectrum of the recorded data are importantfor bridges from seismic point of view.
4. RESPONSE OF THE BRIDGE TO DIFFERENT VEHICLEWEIGHT
For the present study traffic data and ambient data were collected at
different times. It is observed that the trucks and buses that passed throughthe bridge are in the range of 10 tons to 22 tons of weight. It is obvious thatas the weight of traffic increases the acceleration, velocity and displacementof bridge structure also increase. In the transverse and longitudinal directionof the bridge deck, the acceleration increases with the increase of weight of368

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vehicle. Figures 11 to 12 describe the above findings. The velocity anddisplacement also increase with increase of weight. Figures 13 to 16
describe the above findings.
In-fact, two weight groups of vehicle can be noticed from the graphs.
One group weighs between 11 to 15 tons, which are buses and other groupof vehicles weighting between 19 to 22 tones, which are trucks. From
Figure 11, it is clearly seen that the two groups produce different responseof the bridge. Buses cause acceleration of 1.3 to 2.1 gals in transverse
direction and 0.8 to 1.1 gals in longitudinal direction. These vehicles caused
velocity of 0.02 to 0.04 cm/sec in transverse direction and 0.037 to 0.057
cm/sec in longitudinal direction. Displacement in the range of 0.045 mm to
0.076 mm in transverse direction and 0.058 mm to 0.2 mm in longitudinal
direction was observed for the same vehicles.
3.5

0.105 cm/sec

0.10

3.0
2

Velocity in cm/sec

Acceleration in cm/sec

2

2.90 cm/sec
2.5

2.0

0.08

0.06

0.04

1.5
0.02

1.0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

10

24

12

14

Figure 11: Acceleration of bridge deck(BR5) in transverse direction

0.070

1.75 cm/sec

2

22

0.071 cm/sec

0.065

Velocity in cm/sec

2

20

0.075

1.8

Acceleration in cm/sec

18

Figure 12: Acceleration of bridge deckin longitudinal direction (BR6)

2.0

1.6

16

W eight in ton

W eight in ton

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8

0.060
0.055
0.050
0.045
0.040

0.6
10

12

14

16

18

20

0.035

22

10

12

14

W eight in ton

Figure 13: Velocity of bridge deck intransverse direction (BR5)

18

20

22

Figure 14: Velocity of bridge deck inlongitudinal direction (BR6)

0.010

0.040

0.009

0.035

Displacement in cm

Displacement in cm

16

Weight in ton

0.008

0.007

0.006

0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015

0.005

0.010
0.004

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

W eight in ton

Figure 15: Displacement of bridge deckin transverse (BR5) direction

0.005
10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Weight in ton

Figure 16: Displacement of bridge
deck in longitudinal direction (BR6)

Dynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurposee Bridge due to Vehicular Loading369

October 2008, Beijing, China

Trucks cause acceleration of 2.0 to 2.8 gals in transverse direction and1.25 to 1.8 gals in longitudinal direction. These vehicles caused velocity of
0.055 to 0.10 cm/sec in transverse direction and 0.055 to 0.064 cm/sec inlongitudinal direction. Displacement in the range of 0.075 mm to 0.094 mm
in transverse direction and 0.17 mm to 0.4 mm in longitudinal direction wasobserved for the same vehicles. From the response between two weightgroups less overlapping in acceleration is found in the longitudinal direction
and less overlapping in velocity is found in the transverse direction. Thus
acceleration data of longitudinal direction and velocity data of transverse
direction may be used for detection of overweight vehicles from the bridge
response. Figures 11, 13 and 15 describe acceleration, velocity anddisplacement in transverse direction for vehicles passing from east to west
direction. Figures 12, 14 and 16 describe acceleration, velocity anddisplacement in longitudinal directions for vehicles coming from east. Fromthe maximum limit of weight and maximum limit of speed, maximum limitof vibration data that is acceleration, velocity and deformation can be
determined.
Figure 11 shows the best fitted line which shows the acceleration indifferent weight limits. A line parallel to the best fitted line is then plotted.
This is the line of maximum acceleration with respect to different weight inthe transverse direction of bridge on deck (BR5). If the busses and trucks
are restricted not to carry over 20 tons, then for 20 tons the response ofbridge in acceleration can be measured from the parallel line of the best
fitted line. From that figure the acceleration is found 2.90 cm/sec2. So if the
response of the bridge goes over 2.90 cm/sec2 the vehicle can be identified.
If the busses and trucks are restricted not to carry over 20 tons, similar
exercise can be carried out for velocity in the transverse direction. If the
response of the bridge goes over 0.105 cm/sec (Figure 12) the vehicle canbe identified. Similarly in the longitudinal direction, if the response of thebridge goes over 1.75 cm/sec2 in acceleration or 0.071 cm/sec in velocity,
the vehicle can be identified. The acceleration and velocity graph is shownin Figures 13 and 14 respectively.
5. RESPONSE OF THE BRIDGE TO DIFFERENT VEHICLESPEED
The speed is also another important factor. The range of speed is from 35
km/h to 85 km/h. Buses have relatively higher speed than trucks. It can also
be observed that as the speed of vehicles increases the response of thebridge increases. The bus has a weight range of 11 to 15 tons where is thetruck has a weight range of 19 to 22 tons. In Figure 17 it is observed that theacceleration increases with respect to increase of speed. A 14.1 ton bus
which has a speed of 37 km/h gives a lower response (1.138 cm/sec2). On
the other hand, a 12.6 ton bus with a speed of 68 km/h has higher response(2.235 cm/sec2). Figure 18 shows the same finding for the bridge intransverse direction for the weight of 19 to 22 tons of truck.

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4.0

3.0

2

Acceleration of bridge in cm/sec

20.5
2

14.8

14.4

Acceleration of Bridge deck in cm/sec

2.8
2.6
2.4

12.5

2.2

14.4

2.0

13.1

12.6

1.8

14.5

14.4

1.6
1.4

11

14.1

1.2

12.4

14.1

12.8

13.3

1.0

3.5

3.0

2.65 cm /sec

19 .7

2

2.5

21 .7

1 9.3
20.2

20

2.0

20.5

22 .2

1.5

20 .7
1.0

30

40

50

60

70

80

35

90

Figure 17: Response of bridge deckin form of acceleration intransverse direction with respect tospeed for vehicles weighing 11 to
15 tons.

40

45

50

55

Speed of Vehicles in km /h

Speed of vehicles in km/h

Figure 18: Response of bridge deckin form of acceleration in transverse
direction with respect to speed forvehicles weighing 19 to 22 tons.

The response of bridge deck in transverse direction (BR5) for thevehicles weighing in the range of 19 to 22 tons is described with respect tospeed in Figure 19. For this data a best fitted line is drawn for finding the
response of the bridge in different speed limit. A line parallel to the best
fitted line is also drawn for finding the maximum response of the bridge inacceleration. Now if the vehicles are restricted not to pass over speed limitof 40 km/h, then the response from the plot will be 2.65 cm/sec2. If thevehicle crosses this acceleration, then the vehicle can be identified as
crossing the speed limit. Here the vehicle weight is in the range of 19 to 22
tons. So this is possible to find out the maximum response a vehicle
weighing 20 tons with a speed 40 km/h from Figure 19.
From the Figure 19 a line can be drawn parallel to the best fitted line
and through the point of response for vehicle weighing 20 tons. From thatfigure the response is found 2.08 cm/sec2. From this value it can beconcluded that if the response of the bridge exceeds 2.05 cm/sec2 then thevehicle may exceed the weight limit of 20 tons or the speed limit of 40 km/h
or the both. Then the vehicle can be identified.

Acceleration of Bridge deck in cm/sec

2

4 .0

3 .5

3 .0

2 .5

2.08 cm/sec

2

2 .0

20
1 .5

1 .0
35

40

45

50

55

Speed of Vehicles in km /h

Figure 19: Response of bridge deck in form of acceleration in transverse
direction (BR5) with respect to speed for vehicles weighing of 20 tons.

Dynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurposee Bridge due to Vehicular Loading371

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 20 and 21 show the acceleration on deck of the bridge inlongitudinal direction. The first figure shows for the bus vibration andsecond one for the vibration of truck. It is noticed that two buses weighing
14.4 tons both have greater responses than the 11 and 13.8 ton bus in Figure
20. So the response of bus weighing 14.4 tons with a speed of 46 km/h has alittle bit higher than the bus weighing 11 tons with a speed of 56 km/h. So,
the weight governs here. For the truck the speed is very important cause ofvibration on deck of bridge. For trains speed is the most important factor ofbridge vibration because of their heavy load. In Figure 21 a best fitted line isdrawn for the response in terms of acceleration on deck in longitudinal
direction. Then a parallel line is drawn for the maximum response. The
maximum response is found to be 0.98 cm/sec2. For the vehicle of 20 tonsof weight the response is found to be 0.70 cm/sec2. From this value it can beconcluded that if the response of the bridge exceeds 0.70 cm/sec2 inlongitudinal direction then the vehicle may exceed the weight limit of 20
tons or the speed limit of 40 km/h or the both. Then the vehicle can be
identified.
1 .1 5

20.5

1.8
2

1 2 .4

1 .0 5

1 2 .8

1 .0 01 4 .40 .9 5

1 4.8

1 4 .4

1 3 .30 .9 01 3 .80 .8 5

11
0 .8 00 .7 5
40

50

60

70

80

S p e e d o f v e h ic l e s in k m /h90

Acceleration of bridge in cm/sec

Accelerometer of bridge in cm/sec

2

1 .1 0

1.6

20.5

1.4

19.7

1.2

0.98 cm/sec

20.2

2

1.0

22.2

0.8

20

0.6
38

40

0.70 cm/sec

42

44

2

46

48

50

52

54

56

Speed of vehicle in km/h

Figure 20: response of bridge deckin acceleration in longitudinal
direction in respect of the speed ofvehicles in weight of 11 to 15 tons.

Figure 21: Response of bridge deckin acceleration in longitudinal
direction in respect of the speed ofvehicles in weight of 19 to 22 tons.

It can be observed clearly that when the weight increases theacceleration increases and when the speed increases the acceleration also
increases in a regular pattern. But some values give a little bit anomalous
results. This is because of the superposition of the response of other vehicles.
The study cannot be done stopping all the vehicles passing on the bridge andby collecting data just for only a single vehicle. Another thing is that there
are two lanes on each side. The vehicles do not pass in the same lane always.
Sometimes they pass in first lane, sometimes in the second lane andsometimes in the middle of the two lanes.
6. COMPARISONS AMONG DIFFERENT TRAIN DATA
Response of the bridge for different train data (from 2003 to 2008) ispresented in Figure 22. Previously trains used to move at higher speed andtherefore response of the bridge was higher. Recently the train is restricted372

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to run in a lower speed. So, the response of the bridge is lower than theprevious response. Thus the train speed is a very important factor for thebridge vibration. Response of bridge is the lowest for train without any othertraffic. This seems natural because superposition of traffic is absent.
Comparison of various train data

20

03/05/07 (with traffic)

Maximum acceleration (cm/sqsec)

18

24/10/03 (with traffic)

16

03/07/04(with traffic)

14

15/02/06 (without any traffic)
2004 (without any traffic)

12
10

Sensor number

8
6
4
2
0
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sensor location

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Figure 22: Comparison of response of thirteen bridge sensors for different
train data.
From Figure 22, it is observed that for the train with traffic on
24/10/03 when the speed of the train was higher, the response of the bridge
is higher than that of any present day low speed trains.
Weight and speed of trains are governing factors for bridge response.
When a train passes over the bridge with empty 25 oil bogies, the response
is lower than the same train passing with full oil bogies. All the sensors of
the bridge have greater response when oil bogies are full than when they are
empty. The train with empty bogies has a speed of 17 km/h and the train
with full oil bogies run at speed of 15 km/h. If their speed remains samethen the difference will be more. Among all the data oil train with full oil
gives the highest response for the bridge.
Response of the bridge due to two broad gauge trains is compared.
The first train has an engine and 6 bogies. The speed of the train was 17
km/h. This data was collected on 20/05/08. On the other hand, second train
has an engine and 7 bogies. The speed of the train was 18 km/h. This data isrecorded on 21/05/08. From these two series of data it is observed that, thesecond data have higher value than the first one. The response on bridge
deck increases about 22% adding of one bogie. The study indicates theincrease in bridge response due to addition of bogies. The 12 and 13 number
sensors have always higher value. This is because of the sensors are in the
middle of span, that means they are far from the support. So the vibration ishigher in middle of the span.
The train, truck and bus vibration data are collected several times forthe analysis to find out the response. Data recorded in the past show apattern of similarity. When the weight of the bus and truck increases the
response also increases. When the speed increases remaining the weightsame the response also increases. For the train when the speed decreases the
response decreases. However among the previously recorded data andDynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurposee Bridge due to Vehicular Loading373

October 2008, Beijing, China

recently recorded data there is difference. For the same type of train
previous response was lower than the recently recorded response.
In Table 1, it is clearly observed that the response of the bridge isgreater in presently recorded data. The train data of 03/05/07 was for a
Broad Gauge train. And the train data of 20/05/08 is also for a Broad Gauge
Train and it has 6 bogies with an engine. The speed of the two trains was
same (17 km/h). However the response of presently recorded data due totrain movement is larger than the previously recorded data. This may be dueto the recently occurred cracks in the bridge.
Table 1: The comparison of acceleration in cm/sec2 due to train movement
recorded on bridge deck in transverse direction.
Sensor

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

No

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

On

2.54

0.76

1.27

1.23

2.42

1.05

1.82

0.90

1.21

0.77

2.44

6.69

6.41

3.87

1.51

2.23

2.66

6.58

2.57

7.71

3.33

3.43

2.37

6.59

16.8

52

99

75

116

172

145

324

270

183

208

170

151

3/5/07On
20/5/08
Increase
in %

13.7
114

7. CONCLUSIONS
Train and truck excite the bridge with their comparatively greater load. Due
to huge input energy bridge excites close to its predominant frequency.
However other vehicles like bus, motorcycle, zip etc. has lower energy input.
BR1, BR5 and BR11 which are in transverse direction show predominantfrequency of 1 Hz and 3 Hz for different train, truck and bus data recorded
in different times. BR 2, BR 6 and BR 10 are the sensors in longitudinal
direction. These sensors show predominant frequency of 2 Hz. Two weightgroups of vehicle can be noticed. One group weighs between 11 to 15 tons,
which are buses and the other group of vehicles are 19 to 22 tones, which
are trucks. Weight and speed of a vehicle are major concern for the bridge.
If the response of the bridge in transverse direction exceeds 2.05 cm/sec2
then the vehicle may exceed the weight limit of 20 tons or the speed limit of
40 km/h or the both. Then the vehicle can be identified. On the other hand,
if the response of the bridge in longitudinal direction exceeds 0.70 cm/sec2
then the vehicle may exceed the weight limit of 20 tons or the speed limit of
40 km/h or the both.
Previously trains used to move at higher speed; therefore response of
the bridge was higher. Recently the train is restricted to run in a lower speed.
So, the response of the bridge is lower than the previous response.

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REFERENCES
ALTUS QuickLook for windows Ver.2.89(12/18) 14 dec, 2000 Copyright
1994-2000, Kinemetrics, Inc. 222, Vista Avenue, Pasadena, California,
USA 91107.
ALTUS QuickTalk for windows Ver. 2.16 Copyright 1996-2000,
Kinemetrics, Inc. 222, Vista Avenue, Pasadena, California, USA
91107
Origin 6.1 v6.1052 (B232), Copyright 1991-2000, OriginLab Corporation,
One Roundhouse Plaza, Northampton, MA 01060, USA

Dynamic Behaviour of Jamuna Mulitipurposee Bridge due to Vehicular Loading375

October 2008, Beijing, China

376

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

RISK ANALYSIS OF CROWD EVACUATIONUSING THE MONTE CARLO METHODJIAN-FENG LI 1,2, XIAOHUI YAO, XIAOQING LIU,YUTIAN WANG and BIN ZHANG
1 Beijing Municipal Institute of Labor Protection, Beijing,100054,
P.R.China
2 Urban Public Safety Research Center, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071
P.R.China
ABSBSTRACT
Available safe egress time (ASET) is an important indicator inmeasuring the safety of public venues. In order to evaluate the safety
evacuation performance from the perspective of quantitative risk analysis,
the Monte Carlo simulation approach has been employed. First, Xiaobailou
Metro station in Tianjin has been selected as the research object. Second,
the limit state equation has been established to describe the available safe
egress time (ASET) in the metro. Third, through using the software @risk,
the Monte Carlo simulation was accomplished, and obtained the fatality
rates corresponding to the different scenarios. Finally, to integrate thefatality rates and the probabilities of occurrence of different scenarios, itestimates the final fatality rate of the passengers under the condition of firein Xiaobailou Metro station .The result indicates that the Monte Carlosimulation approach is a powerful tool to describe complex problems
characterized by parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty.
1. INTRODUCTION
Available safe egress time (ASET) is an important indicator to quantify thesafety level of public venues. The ASET could be defined by the time period
from accident happen to safe egress from the dangerous zone that isequivalent to reach the safe position. Figure 1 described the accidents
development chain and the different time span used in evacuation. In orderto evaluate the safety evacuation performance from the standpoint of
quantitative risk analysis, the Monte Carlo simulation has been employed in
Tianjin city Xiaobailou Metro station that is selected as the case study [1].
A Metro system is an important part in urban transportation networkthat is made up of by many equipments and facilities. Also, it is a typical
crowd massing public venues that is vulnerable to be subject to fire,
explosion, earthquakes, flood, equipment breakdown, etc., which not only
cause human casualties and material loss but also induce society shock. The
configuration in Metro system has its characteristics. Being subject to thelimited space and number of exits, once the accidents happened, thedifficulty of passenger interior escaped from disaster is comparatively great;moreover, exterior rescue action is hard to carry out. For one thing,passenger flux is high that is difficult to control. Escaping conditions and377

October 2008, Beijing, China

circumstance is bad (tremendous vertical depth, little escaping route, longescaping distance). Many barriers cumber the pass engages’ safe egress thatmade available safe egress time is short. For another, once the fire in metro
occurs, the accident is paroxysmal with multiversity and complexity, so
effective salvation is untoward. Furthermore, in emergency, poisonous gas,traffic jam in escaping routes, poor communications and inappropriate
wrecking equipments result in balking at salvation.
Available safe egress time

accident

detection

Tdet

alarm

confirm

decision

Tresponse

actionsafe

TtravelDangerous
statusLeft Time

Figure 1: Composition of Available safe egress time

2. DESCRIPTION OF METRO SYSTEM
A Metro system is a complex system In general, based on its function, user
requirements and different position, Metro system is divided into three
sections: subway station, interzone section, and vehicle section.
Subway station is an important part in Metro system, which benefits
for passengers, at the same time, centralizes a large part of technologicalfixing and management system. Interzone section connects two stations,which directly relates to the circulation, which influences the cozinessfeeling of passengers and train velocity. Vehicle section is used to park thetrain and perform ordinary maintenance together with personnel training.
These paper emphases on the subway station. It makes up of station(platform, hall, living and working locales), passageway, route way,ventilation passage, ground intake, etc.
In order to make the following chapters somewhat less abstract wealready here introduce our basic calculation example. The building type isdefined as a subway station and the analysis is the available safe egress time
(ASET) margin for a fire in the station itself. The scenario event tree isshown by Figure 2, outlining the various outcome cases forfunctioning/non-functioning fire alarms, sprinklers and emergency doors.
The event tree indicates the routes by which the initial event (including
evacuation) can develop. At each branch, a question is posed related to thedevelopment of the event and branch probabilities are assigned, based on
statistical data. Each path through the event tree defines a scenario, andaccordingly the event tree in Figure 1 defines eight scenarios 1-8. The
possible scenarios are shown in Figure 2.

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Figure 2: Event tree describing the eight scenarios

3. THE LIMIT STATE EQUATION OF THE ASET OF MONTE
CARLO
3.1 Basic Limit State Equation of the ASET
The limit state equation of the available safe egress time (ASET) for afire in an indoor space can be formulated as:(1)
G � S �D�R�E �0
Where : G is the available safe egress time margin˗
S is the time for smoke filling to 1.5m above floor level˗
D is the detection time˗
R is the response and behavior time prior to evacuation˗
E is the movement time to exit˗In equation (1) all parameters are considered stochastic. This paper
assumes that smoke-filling to 1.6 m that is the breath surface of humanbeing is a criterion of the SAFE-NOT SAFE boundary. It ignores thevariability of smoke effects on the occupants before the smoke reaches 1.5m.
The parameters S, D and E should be obtained by computer simulationor empirical formulaˈso they contains uncertaintiesˈwe induce three
uncertainty parameters to rectify the models as following:G � MSS � MDD � R � MEE(2)

Figure 3: Setting of the computational grid

Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method379

October 2008, Beijing, China

3.2 Construction of the Limit State Equation
The essence of this part is derivation of regression equations andknowledge uncertainty. To carry out the analytical and numerical calculationof safety level, well-established response surface equations for smoke filling
time S, detection time D are necessary.
The derivation of regression equations can be divided into two stages.
The first one is to obtain sufficient number of output values of prediction
models to cover the whole range of variation of stochastic parameters. Thenthe regression analysis will be carried out to fit an appropriate equation tothe output values. The errors of the prediction made by regression equation
should be quantified as well. They can be included in the knowledge
uncertain parameters described in equation 2.
3.2.1 Evolution model of fire growth - critical time S
The process of fire growth is unstable essentially and will endure
non-linearity stage at first, then reach the stable burning. An empiricalequation is suggested in NFPA92B for the smoke layer height during thet2-fires (Q =� t2 [kW]). The equation is[3]:�1/ 5
�3 / 5�z� 1000 � � Area � �
� 0.91 �tH �4 / 5 �� � 2 � �H� � � � H � �
�

�1.45

˄3˅

Solving for t , we get,t � 3.74� �0.2 H 0.3 Area 0.6 z �0.69

˄4˅

Where, z is the height of smoke layer above fire [m], Area is the floorarea [m2], H is the ceiling height [m], t is the time [s], � is the fire growthrate [kW/s2]. As for the Xiaobailou subway station, H and Area areconstants. So, the critical time S that is equivalent to the time span that thesmoke layer reach to the breath surface can be formulated to be exponentialfunction with the parameter �.
Now, critical time can be formulated as: S=C�n.
The parameters C and n will be determined through computer
simulation under the real scenario of Xiaobailou subway station.
Large Eddy Simulation
˄LES˅in FDS code will be used to simulate theprocess of fire growth and spread[4]. According to the fire scenarios defined
above, the input file in FDS code can be determined. Considering thesimulation precision and computational capacity, we defined the grid to be
0.67m×0.53m×0.5m, so totally 97200 units in the whole.
First, we consider the scenario that mechanical ventilation system isdown. NFPA92B˄2000˅ puts forward four kinds of typical fire growth
patterns. The corresponding fire growth rate � and the maximum time toreach fire power 10MW have been listed in table 1.

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Table 1: Typical fire growth patterns
�˄kW/s2˅Time˄s˅Slow

0.002931

1847

Medium0.01111949

Fast

0.04689

462

Very fast

0.1878231

Fire growth patterns

Separately, the simulation of the fire development process that defers
to four kinds of typical fires growth patterns can produce calculation resultsof temperature in any grid point and at any time. To take the profile thatconnects the platform with passenger train for example, the distribution oftemperature at specific time have been displayed in Figure 4.

120s

180s

240s

300s

360s

420s

480s

Figure 4: Profiles of the temperature distribution
More to the point, when the passengers evacuate from the platform tostation hall, the crowded status could occur in the egress passage such as
staircase and escalator. Thus, the passenger would be detained for a longer
time in the neighborhood of the entrance to safe zone. Therefore the profilesof the entrance to safe zone should be paid much attention to check for its
smoke layer altitude and temperature distribution.

Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method381

October 2008, Beijing, China

In terms of the safety requirements, the most dangerous point, namely
the position mostly approaching to the fired train, can be taken out as therepresentative to reflect the situation of entire section. See Figure 5.
According to the FDS simulation result, various curves describing smoke
layer altitude and temperature in the entrance to staircases and escalators
could be obtained at different time [5].
1# Escalator

2# Stair2# Escalator

1# StairFigure 5: Entrance profiles to different egress passage and the mostdangerous points

Notes: (1)blue lines represent the position of entrance profiles(2)red points represent the most dangerous points

To take the “very fast” fire as example, various curves describing
smoke layer altitude and temperature in the entrance to staircases andescalators have been showed in Figure 6 and Figure 7.

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Figure 6: Altitude of smoke layer

Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method383

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 7: Temperature in smoke layer
Notes: the data above is the simulation result when mechanical ventilation system is
down.

From these figures, we can see:(1)As for the two escalators left and right, excluding several short-term
periods that smoke layer drop down below to 1.5m, smoke layer always
keeps up to 3.5m. Moreover, the temperature has not up to 60 , even if thesmoke is dropping down below to 1.5m, it will not pose the threat topassengers.
(2)As for the two staires in the middle, although the smoke layer
always keeps up to 1.5m, the temperature quickly exceeds 180 . For
instance, in 196 second, the temperature in 1# stair reaches to 180 thatsatisfied the first judgment criterion that reflects the fatal injury caused byfire. Thus, when mechanical ventilation system is down, the “very fast” fire
determined the critical time S is 196 second.
Similarly, when mechanical ventilation system is down, we canacquire the critical time corresponding to four typical fire growth patterns,
see table 2.

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Table 2: Simulation results of the critical time corresponding to four typicalfire growth patterns
Slow�˄kW/s2˅
0.002931

Time˄s˅
1317

Medium0.01111718

Fast

0.04689

377

Very fast

0.1878196

Fire growth patterns

Based on the data in table 2, we used the statistical software 1stOpt tomake the regression, and then obtain the parameter C and n in S=C�n. The
final results are listed as following:
Optimal value of C: 93.1;
Optimal value of n: -0.45;
Standard deviation: 1%;
S=93.1�-0.45;
˄11˅
By the same way, when mechanical ventilation system works,
evolution model of fire growth will be changed to S=83.8�-0.48. ˄2˅
3.2.2 Awareness time - detection time D
DETACT-T2 is a program for calculating the actuation time of thermal
devices below unconfined ceilings. It can be used to predict the actuation
time of fixed temperature and rate of rise heat detectors, and sprinkler heads
subject to a user specified fire which grows as the square of time.
DETACT-T2 assumes that the thermal device is located in a relatively large
area that is only the fire ceiling flow heats the device and there is no heatingfrom the accumulated hot gases in the room. The required program inputs
are the ambient temperature, the response time index (RTI) for the device,
the activation and rate of rise temperatures of the device, height of theceiling above the fuel, the device spacing and the fire growth rate. The
program outputs are the time to device activation and the heat release rate atactivation [6].
Its mathematical model is:
dTtan k U g �Tg � Ttan k �
dt
RTI
˄13˅
Here,
Ttank: detection temperature;
Tg : temperature of fire ceiling flow;
Ug : velocity of fire ceiling flow;
RTI : response time index.
In Metro system, we define Ttank =57 ˈRTI =32.

Table 3: Detection time in different fire patterns

Fire growth patterns
SlowMediumFast
Very fast�˄kW/s2˅
0.002931
0.011110.04689
0.1878Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method

Detection time D˄s˅
268
169
104
67

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Based on the data in table 3, we used the statistical software 1stOpt tomake the regression, and then obtain the parameter C and n in D=C�n. The
final results are listed as following: D=37.1�-0.37.
3.2.3 Movement time - E
The evacuation time or more precisely the movement time is simply
calculated by looking at the time it takes for a crowd to pass through theegress passage. The movement time is composed of the time it takes to walkto the door and the time consumed having a crowd passing a door. But as
the passing time usually is much larger than the walking time to reach thedoor the latter is omitted. The movement time is dependant on the numberof available exits, their width and the number of persons in the room. The
number of persons in a room is dependant on the type of assembly room andthe floor area. In some rooms the number of persons is fixed by the numberof seats but in others the number could vary depending on the type ofoccupancy in the room[7].
One of the other branches in the event tree is whether or not one
emergency door is blocked. This blockage could be caused by either the fireor by the locking of the door. For example, if the fire occurs close to an
emergency exit that exit will not be used and people tend to use other exits.
Locked emergency doors are not very frequent but a door could be blockedby other reasons. Goods could be stored in front of a door preventing it frombeing used. An emergency exit could also be unused because of reasons nottied to a physical blockage of the door. If people are not familiar with thebuilding layout and the fire exits, these exits will not be used to any large
extent. This will result in consequences, as if the door was blocked. In
places of assembly this is almost always the case i.e. people tend to use thesame ways out as they entered the building through. It is however possible
to some extent guide people to different exits with the use of exit signs andevacuation alarms with verbal messages. Using the latter a quicker
evacuation is to be expected. In conclusion emergency doors are not used if:a) The fire is close to the door;b) The door is locked or blocked or the door is unfamiliar to the people.
The time people used to pass through egress passage (escalator andstair) from the platform to station hall, can be calculated as following:N � AreaE� n� FiWi
i �1

˄14˅

Here,
Fi: the capability of the ith passage;
Wi: the width of the ith passage;
N: crowd density.
According toǉCode for the design of metro ˄GB 50157ˉ2003˅Ǌ, thetraveling capability of the staircases are 1.03 person/(s-m), the capabilityof the escalators are 2.25 person/ (s-m) [8].
The width of staircase and escalator in Xiaobailou subway station is
2.5m and 2m respectively. So,

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n

� FW
i

i

˙2×1.03×2.5ˇ2×2.25×2˙14.15 person/s.
˄15˅
The total area of Xiaobailou subway station is 1440m2. [5]Thus , the movement time E˙101.8N.
The egress passage has some possibility to be blocked by the discarded
baggage or passengers themselves. Then, supposed the blocked emergency
exit is 1# escalator, we can get:
i �1

n

� FW
i

i

˙2×1.03×2.5ˇ1×2.25×2˙9.65 person/s.
˄16˅
The movement time when one passage was blocked is E˙149.2N.
i �1

3.2.4 Fire growth rate - �
London Fire Brigade’s real fire library is a database of informationcollected from real fire incidents by specialist teams of experienced fire
investigators operating in the Greater London Area. A sample of this datacollected over a five-year period has been used to characterize the
distributions of fire sizes, fire growth rates and times between events that
occur in building fires in a form suitable for use with probabilistic risk
assessment.

Table.4 Log-normal parameters characterizing the distribution of fire
growth parameters for each occupancy group [9]Occupancy group
Care homes
Higher/further
education
Hospitals
Hotels
OfficesPublic buildings
Licensed premises
RetailFactories
Warehouse

��
ˉ7.7

��
1.1

E(�) (kW/s2)
0.001

�95 (kW/s2)
0.003

ˉ7.2

0.8

0.001

0.003

ˉ7.1
ˉ7.7
ˉ7.1
ˉ6.2
ˉ6.6
ˉ5.4
ˉ5.9
ˉ4.0

1.3
2.1
1.8
1.9
2.2
1.9
2.2
1.9

0.002
0.004
0.004
0.012
0.016
0.027
0.030
0.107

0.007
0.014
0.016
0.045
0.053
0.101
0.100
0.405

Here, the log-normal distribution parameters (�� ; ��) estimated forfires occurring in metro system are -6.2 and 1.9.
3.2.5 Response time - R
Empirically, when fire alarm is on, the crowd will not take action rightnow. Only through the “confirm” and “decision” stage, the crowd will takeaction. On the process of “confirm”, people just realized the accidents’occurrence together with doubts. On the stage of “action”, people willinterrupt their usual activities and prepare for the evacuation that include
gathering the accessories, summoning children, exploring the dangerous
situation around them, seeking possible exit and sending out alarm.
Response time includes both of them.
D.A. Purser has analyzed the data obtained from the exercise in

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October 2008, Beijing, China

different type of assembly and achieved the conclusion that before themovement, the response time approximately defers to the lognormal
distribution [10].
H. Frantzich has drawn the conclusion that response time R defers to
the log-normal distribution with the parameters˄130,120˅ when the alarmis on. Besides, when the alarm is down, some passengers will detect the fire
first by naked eye and send out alarm to others. So, the total response time
will be:R˙Lognormal˄10ˈ5˅ˇLognormal˄300ˈ300˅.[11]3.2.6 Crowd density - N
According to "Tianjin Subway Line No.1 Feasibility Report", theearly peak capacity of passenger in Xiaobailou subway station is[5]:Boarding southward, 1768 people per hour;
Boarding northward, 7375 people per hour.
If we suppose one train every two minutes, then the population in theplatform waiting for a train is: (1768 + 7375) /30 = 305 people. Further, thetrain is composed by 4 compartments, 2 compartments with power plus 2
trailers without power that contains 275 and 252 person respectively (1054).
Thus the total number of people need to escape is 1359.
The total area of the Xiaobailou subway station is 1440m2. So, in thestation, greatest density of the crowd is 0.94 person of /m2. Therefore, thecrowd density can be supposed to defer to triangle distribution with theparameter (0.1, 0.75, and 0.94). [12]3.2.7 Uncertainty analysis of the model
Equation (11) and (12) are obtained from regression of simulation
result of FDS code. The equation contains uncertainty from two sides:(1) The difference between simulation results in FDS code and the datafrom field experiments (1# error);(2) The difference between regression model and simulation results in
FDS code (2# error).
Correspondingly, the regression model needs to be rectified asfollowing:(1) Based on the field experiments in tunnel conducted by L.H. Hu, thetemperature obtained from FDS code is somewhat greater than the data fromfield experiments. See Figure 8.

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Figure 8: Comparison of the data from FDS simulation and field
experiments
In terms of the empirical model presented by Alert, we can estimate thefunction between temperature and fire growth time[13]. The optimal
rectification coefficient is 0.973, standard deviation 0.026, i.e., the 1# error
defers to normal distribution with the parameters˄0.973, 0.026˅.
(2) When it comes to 2# error, we can acquire the error distribution
from 1stOpt code. The average value of the relative error is 0.002, standard
deviation is 1%, i.e., the 2# error defers to normal distribution with theparameters˄1.002, 0.01˅.
In summary, the uncertainty parameter MS includes both two parts
above, and then we get:
When mechanical ventilation system is down,

M s � Normal (0.973 � 1.002; 0.026 2 � 0.012 ) � Normal (0.975,0.028) .
When mechanical ventilation system works,
M s � Normal (0.973 � 0.99; 0.026 2 � 0.023 2 ) � Normal (0.963,0.035) .

The uncertainty parameters MD and ME have not been determined now.
According to the opinion of Sven Erik Magnusson, he put forward theprobability distribution of MD and ME subjectively [2]:M D � Normal (1.0,0.2) , M E � Normal (1.0,0.3) .
4. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF EIGHT SCENARIOS
4.1 Simulation results

The sampling type is Latin Hypercube and the number of iterations
are 1000. The summary quick report is shown in table 5. To take scenario 1
for example, the histogram for output together with its descending
cumulative line are displayed in Figure 9. Then, the probability of (ASET RSET) = P(G<0)˙7.76%, i.e. the death probability in scenario 1 is 7.76%.

Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method389

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 9: The histogram and descending cumulative line of scenario 1
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Figure 10: The distribution of probabilities of death totally
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Figure 11: Summary graph of the simulation results390

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4.2 Probability of death in Xiaobaolou metro station under fire

Probability of death in Xiaobaolou metro station under fire can beobtained by integrating the death probability in scenario 1~ 8 as following:
8

Fdeath � � pi Fi ˙4.62%.
i �1

pi : The probability of the occurrence of the ith scenario, see table 5.
Here, the probabilities are determined by experts’ opinion.
Table 5.1: Summary quick report in@risk

Table 5.2: Limit state equation of the eight scenarios with its parameters

5. CONCLUSIONSIn the field of risk analysis, the actual experiments can seldom be done dueto the limitation in real world. This limitation necessitates the use of
approximate numerical methods, with Monte Carlo simulation being one of
the most general and easily applied methods. From the research of the ASET
simulation of crowd in metro, we see the Monte Carlo approach is

Risk Analysis of Crowd Evacuation Using the Monte Carlo Method391

October 2008, Beijing, China

efficacious. The method involves computing the output of the risk model formany sets of combinations of inputs. The combinations of the input values
are obtained by random sampling from the distributions assigned to the
input variables. Dependencies among the input variables can be accounted
for by specifying the covariance between pairs of such variables. The
resulting distribution of outputs is then interpreted as an approximation of
the desired probability distribution.
REFERENCE:

Hakan Frantzich.Risk analysis and fire safety engineering. Fire Safety
Journal 31(1998)313-329.
Sven Erik Magnusson, Hakan Frantzich, Kazunori Harada, Fire safety
design based on calculations: Uncertainty analysis and safety
verification, Fire Safety Journal 27(1996) 305-334.
NFPA 92 B. Recommended Practices for Smoke Management in Atria
Malls NFPA Quincy, MA 1991.
Kevin McGrattan�Glenn Forney. Fire Dynamics Simulator (Version 4)
User’s Guide. NIST Special Publication 1019,2005.
Tianjin Subway Line No.1 Feasibility Report.
User information for DETACT-QS and DETACT-T2 programs.
MAGNUSSON S E, FRANTZICH H, HARADA K. Fire safety design
based on calculations [R]. Sweden: Department of Fire Safety
Engineering, Lund University, 1995.
Code for the design of metro �GB 50157�2003�.
Holborn, P, G., Nolan, P. F. & Golt, J., An analysis of fire sizes, fire growth
rates and times between events using data from fire investigations,Fire Safety Journal 39 (2004) 481–524.
D.A. Purser, M. Bensilum. Quantification of behaviour for engineering
design standards and escape time calculations. Safety Science 38(2001):157~182.
Frantzich H.. Reaction times prior to evacuation for shops, restaurants andpublic dance-halls. Estimates done by fire officers, LUTVDG/TVBB
3071 SE, Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University,
Lund 1993.
QUINCY. NFPA 92B: Guide for Smoke Management Systems in Malls,
Atria, and Large Areas, 2000 Edition [M]. MA: National Fire
Protection Association, 2000.
L.H. Hu�R. Huo. On the maximum smoke temperature under the ceiling intunnel fires. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 21(2006): 650~655.

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STUDY ON RISK ASSESSMENT OF
CROWD EVACUATION IN VENUE AREA
P. LI, W.G. and WENG, X.W. JI
Center for Public Safety Research,
Department of Engineering Physics,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, P.R. Chinalipan07@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
There are many situations in which a large number of pedestrians
evacuate in a short period of time after a large-scale activity in venue area.
If some emergencies happen, it will be more likely to cause crowd disaster,e.g. trampling and crushing, etc. Therefore it is necessary to study anappropriate quantitative assessment method to determine the risk of crowd
evacuation in venue area. In this paper, a systematic procedure for thequantitative risk assessment caused by crowd evacuation is developed. A
subsequent case study considering the crowd evacuation in normal scenario
and accidental scenario is applied to use the quantitative risk assessment
procedure. It is evidenced this method can identify the high risk areas
quantitatively. In addition, the method can be used to contrast the difference
between normal and accidental scenarios in order to provide scientificwarrant for crowd evacuation risk management.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Many crowd related tragedies happened over the past decade. Annually,
numerous events of large pedestrian crowds that have ended in tragedy tookapproximately 2000 lives per year on average [1]. For instance, a severe
crowd disaster occurred in Miyun, northern suburb of the Chinese capital,
has caused 37 tourists died and 24 hurt. Crowd incidents involve large
numbers of casualties and hence generally have a greater impact on thecommunity than less sensational incidents that occur more frequently [2].
Especially we should pay particular attention to crowd disaster in venue area
in large cities since after large-scale activities high population densities
often cause potential risk for crowd crush which normally results into injury
or casualty. In sum, crowd evacuation risk after large-scale activities invenue area is an important but largely neglected issue of science andengineering.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Up to now, some studies about trampling and crushing in crowd havebeen developed. Hughes and Lee have explained the development of crowd
crushing using a continuum theory for crowd motion at both high and very
high densities of pedestrians [3], and studied strategy for minimizing therisks of trampling in a crowd [4]. Helbing proposed a force model ofpedestrian behavior to investigate the mechanisms of panic and jammingand suggested practical ways to prevent dangerous crowd pressures [5].
Zhen Xiaoping summarized systematically crowd evacuation models basedon seven methodological approaches [6]. Smith and Dickie consideredsimple physical engineering of crowd safety in terms of the performanceand life of structures to look at how structures fit the behavior of people andhow the structure can promote people's safety [7]. Yet risk of crowd
evacuation in venues area is not frequently considered. In this paper, thesystematic procedure for risk assessment of crowd evacuation (RACE) is
presented, and then a case study applying this procedure is discussed,
followed by the conclusion.

2. PROCEDURE FOR RACE IN VENUE AREA
Generally there are two most disastrous forms of collective human behavior:
crowd trampling and pedestrian crushing. These two kinds of crowd
behavior in venue area could be triggered in life-threatening situations suchas fires, terrorism, rainstorm and so forth. Therefore, to assess the risk of
crowd evacuation in a particular venue area, the first step should be“identification of possible accidental scenario” which induces crowd
trampling or crushing. Considering the actual situation of the venue area,
credible accidental scenario could be chosen. Next step is to select criticalparameters (or indexes) for risk assessment. Then models or software should
be seriously chosen to acquire these results of parameters (or indexes).
Conclusion of preliminary risk assessment could be reached based on theseparameters or index obtained and relative criteria. Judging whether the
preliminary conclusion are accord with actuality of this venue area, we gostraight ahead if it is “Yes”, or go back to alter these parameters (or indexes)
selected in the third step if it is “No”. Considering existing measures,conclusion of practical risk assessment could be attained. Lastly, based onthese results, scientific advices could be presented to reduce the possibilityof crowd trampling and pedestrian crushing in this venue area. Fig. 1
summarizes the main steps of the methodology. Generally, the first andsecond steps (marked by red frame) belong to the phase of backgroundmaterials collection; the third and fourth steps (marked by yellow frame) isthe process of quantitative risk parameters calculation; the firth to ninth
steps (marked by dark blue frame) belong to the final phase of drawing
conclusion which include risk assessment and improvement.

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1.

Identification of possible accidental scenarios

2.

Selection of credible accidental scenarios
3.

6.

Selection of parameters (or indexes)
4.

Calculation of risk
parameters (indexes)

5.

Obtain relative criteria

Model orsoftwareConclusion of preliminary risk assessment

No7.

Accord with
Actuality ofvenue area?
Yes

8.

Conclusion of practical risk assessment
9.

Advices for safety improvement

Figure 1: Flow diagram of the procedure used for the quantitative
assessment of crowd evacuation risk in venues area
2.1 Accidental Scenario
Data required to apply the red procedure in Fig. 1 are discussed indetail in the following:� All possible accidental scenarios that may trigger or aggravate
crowd trampling or pedestrian crushing are determined. History
data could be referenced on these crowd disasters happened in thediscussed venue area or in other public areas.
� Geography information of the discussed venue area, which may
include: pavements, area exits, barriers, venue pedestrian stay,weather condition, surrounding condition around discussed venue
area, and so forth, is got.
� Population information of the discussed venue area, which may

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include the total number of evacuating pedestrian, and proportionof evacuating crowd is got.
This present study summarize some crowd related accidents occurred
before (table 1) which could be referenced when identify possible accidental
scenarios in the first steps.
Table 1: Examples of crowd related accidents
Year

Place

Event

Cause of Disaster

DeathsInjuries

1985

MexicoFootball

Trampling happened when fans

10

29

City

match

tried to force into a stadium

Sheffield,

Football

Tragedy occurred when police

96

400

UK

match

open gates to alleviate

South

Pop

Fans rushed to the stage during a

1

50

Korea

concertpop band’s concert which was
21

67

9

26

5

—

1

—

0

45

15

—

258

200

1986
1992

packed with about 16,000 fans
1993

Lan KwaiStreetTrampling occurred during the

Fong,

party

dispersion of a New Year’s eve

Hongstreet party

Kong
2000
2000

DenmarkIndonesia

Pock

Crowds slipped and fell in mud atconcertfront of stagePop

Five teenagers were crushed toconcertdeath during an oversold
performance of Shelia

2001
2001
2003

SydneyRock

A teenage girl was killed in aconcertfestival crowd crush

Glasgow,Rock

Crowd surge forward to the front

Scotlandconcertof the stage at rock concert

Benin,

Pop

15 concertgoers were killed in aWestconcertcrowd crush near the front of stage

Wai,

Religious

258 Hindu pilgrims were trampledIndia

festival

to death during a stampede at an

Africa2005

annual religious festival

Based on these data above, credible accidental scenarios of the
discussed venue area should be selected from all the possible accidental
scenarios. It is also necessary to aware that even though no trigger accident
will happen, crowd trampling and (or) pedestrian crushing are still possible
to happen if the evacuation process of the discussed venue area is highly
populous, or geographical condition of this venue area is not convenient forevacuating. That is why geographical information and population
information are both needed in this procedure.

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
2.2 Selection and calculation of risk parameters
Generally collective movement is quantitatively described by threefundamental characteristics: density, speed, and flow, all of which are
expressed as rates. Therefore to specify the risk of crowd disaster, thesethree fundamental characteristics could be examined. Here we use
definitions in Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, which specified
density, speed, and flow as follow [9]:� Density – the number of persons in a unit area of walkway. And
this characteristic could be referred by using the inverse of density,that is, the area per person or pedestrian module.
� Speed – the distance covered by a moving person in a unit of time.
� Flow – is specifically the number of people that pass somereference point in a unit of time.
It is necessary to aware that these three characteristics are related.
Speed is dependent on density. The closer people result in the moreconstrained movement. Aside from constraint of moving speed,
high-density situations are also uncomfortable depending on social culture
and the relationship to others nearby. In general, pedestrian could move at
an average unrestricted speed (about 1.25m/s) when the crowd density isless than 0.5 persons/m2; moving speed could decreases to reach a standstillwhen the crowd density is about 4 to 5 persons/m2. While at low density,
speed is mainly determined by occupants’ characteristics such as age,gender, psychology and grouping. And when speed and density areavailable, flow could be obtained as[9]:Flow = speed � density � width(1)
In a word, to assess the risk of crowd disaster in venue area, one or allof these three characteristics could be employed depending on the necessityand data available in practical condition. However, lots of other judging
indexes could also be referred under different situation.
After choosing the assessing parameters, next step is “calculation of
selected parameters”, which could be achieved by appropriate models or
software. According to scale, there are two types of models:
micro-simulation models and macro-simulation models. The former type,including cellular automata models, lattice gas models, social force models,agent-based models, game theoretic models, focus on each pedestrianincluding the velocity and interaction. The latter type, including
fluid-dynamic models which describe how density and velocity change overtime with the use of partial differential equations, overlook the difference ofeach pedestrian and focus on integral indexes, such as velocity, density, andflow [10]. Obviously, macro-simulation models are appropriate to assess
risk of crowd disaster in venue area. To aid readers to select appropriate
models for specific project, the present study describe three mainly
fluid-dynamic models below.

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Table 2: Three main macro-simulation models
SourceSituation

content

Hughes’ continuum

In particular large

Derived the equations of motion governing thetheory for the flow

crowds under

two-dimensional flow of pedestrians for flowsof pedestrians [11]normal situationof both single and multiple pedestrian types.

Hughes’ the flow

NormalDeveloped a continuum modeling of crowds asof human crowds“thinking fluid” based on well-defined[12]

hypotheses.

pedestrian flows

Emergency

Presented a model for the flow of pedestrians

and non-classicalwhich are typical of this flow, such as the fallshocks [13]due to panic in the outflow of people through adoor.

Aside from evacuating models, evacuating software also could bereferred to calculate selected parameters. The present study lists frequently
used walking evacuating simulation software below.
Table 3: Frequently used evacuating simulation software at home andabroad [14]NAME

Country

Research Group

Principle

EVACNET

USA

University of Florida

No code of conduct

SIMULEXBritain—Complex conduct

SGEM

China

City University of Hong Kong &No code of conduct

Wuhan University

or complex conduct

HAZARDUSA——

EGRESSPRO

Australia—

Artificial intelligence

EXIT

USA

National Fire Protection

Code of conduct

Association
STEPS

BritainMott MacDonald.

No code of conduct
or complex conduct

2.3 Risk analysis and improvement
When we obtain the results of selected evaluating parameters, the next
step is to compare these data with current criteria or standards required andreach the conclusion of preliminary risk assessment. If this result is accord
with actuality in administers’ judgments, go straight to the next step to reachconclusion of practical risk assessment considering measure that have beentaken. If not, go back to the third step to rectify selected parameters andrepeat these steps above. Generally speaking, this section is flexible instandards according to different need.

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
3. CASE STUDYThis section will present a case to apply the above procedure. After alarge-scale activity 5000 persons will evacuate from a venue (the area
marked by pink lines) to three gates (short lines marked by green) in a large
area as showed below. Blue closed rectangles are buildings or other barriers
to pedestrians.
3.1 Identification and selection of accidental scenarios
According to historical materials and current local condition, terrorism
are likely to happen which need to evacuate people in the venue out of thisarea quickly. This emergency situation may induce crowd disaster. Besides,
rainstorms often attack the city where this area locates in summer. Therefore,
two kinds of accidental scenarios are identified as terrorism and rainstorms.
However, the risk assessment is carried out in winter. Thus rainstorms are
not the accidental scenario required to consider by administers at that time.
The credible accidental scenario hence could be selected as terrorism.
Besides even thought no emergency happens, after a large-scale activity it iscrowed for 5000 people evacuate out of this venue area simultaneously.
Thereby crowd disaster risk under normal situation and terrorism are bothneeded to be evaluated here.
3.2 Selection and calculation of risk parameters
Here we choose crowd density as the assess index of the crowd
evacuation risk. Firstly, the crowd density is the most important index tojudge the risk for both crowd trampling and crowd crushing. Besides,
software simulation proves that crowd density in this situation are not sohigh as to cause crushing, in which internal pressure in a crowd is an
important criterion determining the likelihood of crushing [3]. To obtain thedata of crowd density during the simulated evacuation, software STEP are
employed. In the screenshots, there are five primary evacuating paths andsix turning areas that are crowed on observation. Thus crowd densities inthese six turning areas are examined and simulation output densities of theseareas. 80% of 5000 people are adults (denoted by blue) and 20% of 5000
people are children (denoted by yellow). Under the emergent situation,pedestrians evacuate faster than those under normal condition.

Study on Risk Assessment of Crowd Evacuation in Venue Area

399

October 2008, Beijing, China

Turning
Turning

Turning
Turning

Turning

Turning
Figure 2: The selected venue area

Figure 3: Simulation of 5000 people evacuating out of a selected venue area
Total evacuation time under normal situation is 3:34, and total
evacuation time under emergent situation is 3:09. Crowd densities in six
turning areas under both situations are showed below in Figure 4.

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Study on Risk Assessment of Crowd Evacuation in Venue Area401

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 4: Crowd densities in 6 turning areas under normal situation andemergent situation
3.3 Obtain relative criteria
The critical density for an accident involving trampling is approximate
5 persons/m2 and for crushing is larger at about 10 persons/m2 which may
occur nearly static crowds.
3.4 Risk analysis and improvement
The highest crowd density in this case does not exceed 3 persons/m2.
Therefore crowd trampling is comparatively less likely to happen except
some areas are needed to be noticed at some time. From these data it is clear
to see which rounding areas and at what time in the process of evacuationcomparatively high level of crowd density is reached, which could bequantitatively referred by administers in the risk management of the venue
area. These rounding areas should be attend are listed in Table 3 and 4.

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Table 4: Rounding areas should be attend under normal situation
TIME

AREA

CROWD DENSITY

1

0:23-1:13

Turning 1

About 2.6 persons/m2 on average2

0:11-1:52

Turning 4

About 2.3 persons/m2 on average

Table 5: Rounding areas should be attend under emergent situation
TIME

AREA

CROWD DENSITY

1

0:25-0:49

Turning 1

About 2.7 persons/m2 on average

2

2:06-2:08

Turning 1

About 2.4 persons/m2 on average

3

0:49-1:19

Turning 4

About 2.3 persons/m2 on average

4

0:22-0:40

Turning 4

About 2.4 persons/m2 on average

In addition, evacuation time under emergency should also be sent toadministrators to judge whether 3:09 is accord with their requirement.
Measures to avoid crowd disaster in evacuating after large-scale activities
are seldom and this simulation process is accord with practical situation;
therefore practical conclusion of risk assessment could be reached andwarrant for crowd disaster risk management could be drawn scientifically.

4. CONCLUSIONSThe present study has developed a flow diagram of the procedure used forthe quantitative risk assessment of crowd evacuation in venues area. Nine
steps of this procedure are discussed in detail, and a subsequent case study
considering the crowd evacuation in normal scenario and accidental
scenario is applied to use the presented procedure. And It is evidenced that
this procedure could identify high risk areas during the evacuation process
quantitatively.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the supports provided by the Fundof National Eleven Five-Year Great Scientific and Technical Support Plans(2006BAK06B02) and Beijing Municipal Science & Technology
Commission (D08050600380801).

REFERENCES
Hughes, R.L., 2003. The flow of human crowds. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech.
35,169–182.

Study on Risk Assessment of Crowd Evacuation in Venue Area403

October 2008, Beijing, China

Qingsong Zhang, Mao Liu, Caihong Wu, Guomin Zhao. A stranded-crowdmodel (SCM) for performance-based design of stadium egress.
Building and Environment 2007: 2630–2636.
R.S.C. Lee, R.L. Hughes. Exploring trampling and crushing in crowds. J.
Trans. Eng. 131 (8) (2005) 576–582.
Ris S.C. Lee, Roger L. Hughes. Minimisation of the risk of trampling in a
crowd. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 2007: 29–37
Dirk Helbing, Illes Farkas & Tamas Vicsek. Simulating dynamical featuresof escape panic. NATURE, VOL 407, 28 SEPTEMBER 2000
Xiaoping Z, Tingkuan Z, Mengting L. Modeling crowd evacuation of abuilding based on seven methodological approaches. Building andEnvironment (2008), doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2008.04.002
R.A. Smith and J.F. Dickie (eds.). Engineering for Crowd Safety [M].
Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993
Ris S.C. Lee, Roger L. Hughes. Prediction of human crowd pressures.
Accident Analysis and Prevention 38 (2006) 712–722
Philip J. DiNenno, Dougal Drysdale, Craig L. Beyler, W. Douglas Walton,
Richard L. P. Custer, John R. Hall, Jr., John M. Watts, Jr.. Handbookof Fire Protection Engineering (Third Edition).
LU Chunxia. Analysis of Compressed Force in Crowds. J Transpn Sys Eng& IT, 2007, 7(2), 98�103.
Hughes RL. A continuum theory for the flow of pedestrians. Transportation
Research Part B 2002;36:507-35.
Hughes RL. The flow of human crowds. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics
2003;35:169-82.
Colombo RM, Rosini MD. Pedestrian flows and non-classical shocks.
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences 2005;28:1553-67.
M, L. Jin. Mixed Traffic Flow Evacuation in City Emergency: [dissertation].
Bejing: Tsinghua University, 2008.

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FLOOD SIMULATION WITH
AN IMPROVED SPH MODEL
KAI BAO1, HUI ZHANG2, LILI ZHENG3 and ENHUA WU41, 4State Key Laboratory of Computer Science,
Institute of Software,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
baokai@ios.ac.cn
ehwu@umac.mo2
Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
zhhui@tsinghua.edu.cn
3School of Aerospace, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chinazhenglili@tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH), as one of the meshless
Lagrangian methods, has been widely used in simulating free surface
problems. In the paper, several improvements, including pressurecorrection scheme, signed distance field based boundary treatment and SPS
turbulence model are implemented to the basic SPH to simulate flooding
flow. The improved SPH model is used to investigate the flow over staircase
and the tsunami impacting on coastline. The results demonstrate that thecurrent SPH model can be used as a powerful tool to study flooding
phenomena with violent water fragmentation and complex topography.
1. INTRODUCTION
Numerous modern numerical techniques can be used to simulate the freesurface flow problems. Most of them are based on meshed methods inwhich the surface tracking or capturing schemes are usually required inorder to obtain the position and speed of the flow surface, such as thevolume of fluid, level set method or front tracking. Recently, the Smoothed
Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method, one of the meshless Lagrangian
methods, was applied to various applications, including free surface
simulation.
In the SPH method, the continuum is represented by a set of particles
each with a given mass and velocity, and the macroscopic values areevaluated through particle interpolation. As it requires no computational
grids, SPH offers some advantages over grid methods. For example, the freesurface can be easily tracked, mass conservation is coherently guaranteed,
and large deformation and violent fragmentation can be handledstraightforwardly. A fairly extensive review of SPH method has been
provided by Monaghan (2005).
In this paper, several improvements are developed to the basic SPH
model for simulating the free surface flow In the improved SPH model, apressure correction scheme is proposed to make the local pressure propagate405

October 2008, Beijing, China

to the neighboring areas so as to overcome tensile instability. A signed
distance field based solid boundary treatment is also used for handlingcomplex topography. The SPH model, together with an SPS model fortaking into account of turbulence effects, is used to study the phenomena
related to water pouring into underground building and tsunami impacting
on coastline with complex topography.
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Basic SPH Formulations
In the SPH model, the Lagrangian form of the Navier-Sokes equations
is used:D�� �� � v � 0
(1)
Dt
Dv
1
� � � p � �� 2 v � g(2)Dt�
where v is velocity vector, p is pressure, � is fluid density, g is
gravitational acceleration vector, and � is the kinetic viscosity. As ameshless Lagrangian particle method, the fluid is discretized with the
Lagrangian particles instead of computational grids. To find the value of aparticular quantity f at an arbitrary position x , an interpolation is appliedwith the neighboring particles, i.e. particle approximation:Nf (x) � � f jW (x � x j )V j

(3)

j �1

where f j is the value of f at the position of particle j , which locates at
x j , W (x � x j ) is the smoothing function and V j is the volume of particle j ,determined with the particle mass m j divided by the particle density � j .
If f is taken as the fluid density, � , the density of particle i , locating
at x , can be evaluated by:N� i (x) � � m jW (x � x j )

(4)

j �1

By applying the SPH particle approximation to the Lagrangian formof the Navier-Stokes equations, the momentum equation in the SPH form
can be obtained as follows:
N
N m
� p
pj �
dv i
j
� �� m j � i2 � 2 �� iWij � � �( v j � v i )� 2W ij � g
(5)
�
�
�
�
�
dt
j �1
j
i
j
j
�
�
where v i is the velocity of particle i , pi is the pressure of particle i .
In order to solve Eq. (6), it is necessary to use the equation of state toevaluate the fluid pressure, even for an incompressible flow. Based on thefact that a theoretically incompressible flow is practically compressible,
Morris et al. (1997) introduced the artificial compressibility equation:

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p � c2 �(6)where c is the sound speed. The sound speed is generally chosen
according to the following rules:
V �V FLc 2 � max( o , 0 , 0 )(7)� � L0 �
where � � �� / � 0 , V0 and L0 are the reference velocity and length,
respectively. Since the pressure force is generally related to the gradient of
the pressure, the following form of the equation of state can be used toincrease the stability of simulation,p � c 2 ( � � � 0 ) . (8)This form provides good density targeting property, while some
artificial surface tension could be introduced near the free surface. With theequation of state, the time-consuming Poisson equation solving is avoided,thus simulations can be performed much faster. However, this may cause
the pressure field accumulated locally, resulting in numerical instability.
2.2 Pressure Correction SchemeDue to the artificial compressibility in Eq.(6) and (8), theincompressibility or volume conservation of the flow is not well satisfied.
The density deviation can cause pressure disturbance, which may introduce
numerical instability. Some researchers enforced strict incompressible
simulation by solving the pressure Poisson equation (Lo and Shao, 2002),
thus the computation is increased dramatically. In the following, a flexible
pressure-correction equation is introduced so as to increase the stability ofthe simulation as well as the efficiency of the SPH model.
We first substitute Eq. (7) into the continuity equation, i.e. Eq. (1) toyield:Dp� � c 2� � v � 0(9)Dt
The SPH formulation of Eq. (9) is written bypin�1 � pin N(10)� � m j ( v nj�1 � v in�1 )� iWijn � 0
2
c �t
j �1
where n denotes the current time step. It is noted that the RHS of Eq.
(10) should be zero if computation is convergent. It, however, is notsatisfied usually. Let us set
pin �1 � pin N(11)S�� � m j (v nj �1 � v in�1 )�iWijn
2
c �t
j �1
According to the Newton’s method, a pressure-correction equation
can be obtained:

Flood Simulation with an Improved SPH Model407

October 2008, Beijing, China

� pin �1 � �

S
(�S )
�P

� pin �1 � pin N�� �( 2 ) �� � m j v nj �1 � v in �1 )�iWijn �  (12)2c �t � c �t
j �1
�
N
�
�
� � � pin �1 � pin � c 2� t � m j v nj �1 � vin �1 )� iWijn �j �1��The pressure of new time step can be corrected by:pin �1 � pin �1 � �� pin �1 
(13)
where � is the relaxation factor with a value of 0.8~1.0.
1

�1

The velocity correction term can be obtained from the momentum
equation,Dv�p� � � (��v ) �
�f

(14)
dt
�
where � is the kinetic viscosity. Then the velocity correction can beobtained by:
� v in�1
� p n �1
 (15)
�� i�t� xi �iand the velocity is updated with� t � pin�1
n �1
n �1
(16)
v i � vi � �
�i � xi
where � is the relaxation factor.
In each given time step, Eqs. (13) and (16) are used iteratively until
Eq.(11) is satisfied. During the iteration, pressure disturbance will propagate
to a large neighboring area and it finally diminished.
2.3 Solid Boundary Conditions
In this paper, a singed distance field based solid boundary treatment isused to enforce the solid boundary condition, with which the usual
generation of extra virtual boundary particles or ghost particles is avoided.
Signed distance fields are widely used in the collision detection in the fieldof computer graphics, and some researchers used it to enforce the solidboundary conditions in the particle method.
For the solid boundary, a signed distance field is generated and stored
in a trilinear grid as a part of preprocessing. For each particle i , which
locates at xi , the signed distance value � (xi ) can be evaluated by a trilinear
interpolation from the eight neighboring grid nodes. A penetration isdetected when � (xi ) �� 0 , and the contact normal ni is evaluated bynormalizing the gradient of the distance field. To resolve the penetration, thepenetrating particles are mirror reflected back into the computation domain
in the normal direction. The velocity of the penetrating particle i isseparated into normal and tangential components:
v in � ( v i � n i )ni
(17)

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31v�i � v i � v in
Then the velocity is updated as follows:
v in � �(1 � � ) v in

(18)
(19)

v i � (1 � � ) v i(20)
where � and � are parameters to enforce different solid boundary conditions.
The free-slip and non-slip boundary conditions are enforced by � � 0 and� � 1 respectively.
��

2.4 SPS Model
In order to handle the turbulence effects in the flow, a Sub-Particle
Scale (SPS) turbulence model is used. The SPS approach to modelingturbulence was first described by Gotoh et al. (2001) to represent the effectsof turbulence in their MPS model, so did Lo and Shao (2002) in theirincompressible SPH scheme. Dalrymple and Rogers (2006) firstly
introduced SPS model to weakly compressible SPH scheme. The SPS model
used here follows Dalrymple and Rogers’ work.
A flat-top spatial filter is applied to the governing equations:Dv�
11� � �p� � �� 2 v� � g � � �� *
(21)
��
��
Dt
where � * represents the SPS stress tensor and
2
1 *
2
2
� ij � 2� t Sij � �� ij � C I � 2� ij Sij
(22)
3
3
��
C I is taken to be 0.0066, Sij is the strain tensor, � is the SPS
turbulence kinetic energy, Cs is the Smagorinsky constant and used toevaluate the eddy viscosity:� t � (C s � ) 2 S(23)
where C s � 0.12 , � is the initial particle spacing and the local strain
1

rate is given by S � (2 S ij S ij ) 2 .
With a symmetric formulation of Lo and Shao (2002), the SPS
stresses can be evaluated with:*N
�* � j1(24)
� �� * � � m j ( i2 � 2 ) �� iWij
��
�
�
1
�
j
i
j
i

For more information on the SPS model used here, the readers arereferred to Dalrymple and Rogers (2006).

Flood Simulation with an Improved SPH Model409

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 1: Configuration of the staircase model
3. EXAMPLES
3.1 Water Flowing into Underground Building
Many floods were caused by heavy rainstorm and bank burst, andmany of them occurred in fully urbanized areas. On July 18th, 2007, a threehour heavy rainfall inundate the underground shopping mall in the Square
Quancheng in the city of Jinan City, China, and human lives were seriously
threatened in the event. Usually, a refuge from the underground space needs
to pass staircase, which is also the route of flood invasion. Therefore, it isnecessary to model and analyze the flow characteristics over the staircases.

Figure 2: The cutaway view of the model used in the simulation(left: wireframe, right: 3D rendering)
To evaluate the flow characteristics accurately, experiments wereconducted. Ishigaki et al. (2005) conducted experiments with real sizemodel of staircase and doors to study the evacuation from undergroundbuilding. In addition, Gotoh et al. (2005) performed numerical simulation onwater stream over staircase used a 3D MPS scheme. However, due to theexpensive solving of the Poisson equation, their computation was reallytime-consuming.
In this paper, following the real scale model used in Ishigaki et al.
(2006), water flow over staircase is simulated. Figure 1 shows theconfiguration, which is almost the same as the one used in the experiment410

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31(Ishigaki et al., 2006), except that a smaller water reservoir is used forsaving computation. Figure 2 shows a cutaway view of the mesh of solidboundary used in the simulation, with which, a distance field is generated torepresent the solid boundary. The free-slip solid boundary condition isenforced here.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)
(f)
Figure 3: The results of the staircase simulation at (a) t=0s, (b)t=2.3ms, (c) t=3.1s, (d) t=4.65s, (e) 6.15s, (f) 10.15s
Numerical results at six different time of the simulation are shown in
Figure 3. At the initial time (Figure 3a), water is injected from pump at therate of 0.7m2/s to the water reservoir (with some water initially in thereservoir to save computation time). After the reservoir has been filled up,water begins to flow out the reservoir towards the staircase. When the waterreaches the staircase, it flows downwards following the path of the staircase.
Violent splash and fragmentation are produced. During simulation, the fluid
particles are simply deleted at the bottom of the staircase to enforce a simple
outflow boundary condition. At the time 10.15s (Figure 3f), a stable state is

Flood Simulation with an Improved SPH Model

411

October 2008, Beijing, Chinareached, which agrees well with the experimental case of 0.7m2/s in(Ishigaki et al., 2006) with the water depth of near 0.5m. Turbulent structureis also well reproduced in the simulation.
The number of particles at the stable state is about 450,000, and theentire simulation takes about 30 hours with a single CPU thread. Comparedwith the simulation taken in Gotoh et al.(2005), which took about 296 hours
for 10s simulation with about 200,000 particles, the numerical techniquetaken in this paper is more efficient since it avoids the time-consuming
solution of the Poisson equation. The results here are rendered with an opensource ray-tracer POVRay.

Figure 4: The DEM data (left) and the terrain surface mesh (right) used in
the simulation
3.2 Tsunami simulation
Flood caused from tsunami or typhoons is also attacking many
Chinese cities. Simulation on flow over a complicated topography is carriedout to test the performance of our SPH model on handling complicatedtopography. In the simulation, digital elevation model (DEM) data is used togenerate the terrain surface mesh. DEM is a digital representation of the
topography. The DEM data used in the simulation is SRTM 90m DEM dataof the city of Tsingdao, which locates at 120:19E, 36:04N and by East
China Sea, and is provided by CGIAR-CSI (http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org). The
DEM data used is shown in Figure 4(a). The gray level represents theground height of the corresponding position. The terrain surface meshgenerated is shown in Figure 4(b). Same with the staircase simulation, a
distance field is created with the mesh to handle the solid boundary
condition. And also, free-slip solid boundary condition is used here.

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(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Figure 5: The results of the simulation of flows over terrain at (a) t=0s, (b)t=0.35s, (c) t=1.8s, (d) t=2.5s, (e) t=4.2s, (f) t=7.35s
A small-scale simulation is performed. The size of computation
domain is 10m in both horizontal directions and the initial velocity of water
body is 2m/s as shown in Figure 5(a). When water interacts with terrain
surface, violent breakage and fragmentation occur. Wave propagation andreflection is well produced. With the complicated topography, the present
SPH model performs well. The number of the particles used in thesimulation is about 310,000. For 8 second simulation, it takes about 24
hours.
4. CONCLUSIONSThe SPH method offers advantages on the simulation of free surface
problems. Several improvements to the basic SPH model, such as pressurecorrection scheme and the treatment of solid boundary conditions, are
Flood Simulation with an Improved SPH Model

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October 2008, Beijing, China

developed in this paper. The improved SPH model has been used in thesimulation of flow over staircase and complex topography. The capability of
the current SPH model in handling violent free surface and complicatedtopography have been demonstrated.
However, the improved SPH model is still an ongoing work and theresults are preliminary, requiring further analysis and improvement. Morecomparison with other numerical methods and experimental data will be
conducted. Also the current SPH model in the practical applications needs
to be validated in the future.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The research work is supported by Changjiang Scholar plan for the second
author and by NSFC (60773030), the Grant of University of Macau (RGUL/07-08S/Y1/WEH/FST) and the National Fundamental Research 973
Project (2002CB312102) for the first and fourth authors.
REFERENCES
Dalrymple, R.A., and Rogers, B.D., 2006. Numerical modeling of water
waves with the SPH method. Coast. Eng., 53, 141–147.
Gotoh, H., Shibahara, T., and Sakai, T., 2001. Sub-particle-scale turbulencemodel for the MPS method-Lagrangian flow model for hydraulicengineering. Computational Fluid Dynamics Journal, 9(4), 339-347.
Gotoh, H., Ikari, H., and Sakai, T., 2005. Numerical simulation of stream
over staircase by 3D particle method, Proc MPMD-2005, Kyoto,
Japan, pp. 185–190.
Ishigaki, T., Toda, K., Baba, Y., Inoue, K. Nakagawa, H., Yoshida, Y., andTagawa, H., 2005. Experimental study on evacuation fromundergound space by using real size models. Annuals of Disas. Prev.
Res. Inst., Kyoto Unvi., No. 48B (in Japanese)
Lo, E., and Shao, S., 2002. Simulation of near-shore solitary wave
mechanics by an incompressible SPH method. Applied Ocean
Research 24, 275-286.
Monaghan, J. J., 2005. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics. Rep. Prog. Phys.
68,703-1759.
Morris, J.P., Fox, P.J., and Zhu, Y., 1997. Modeling low Reynolds number
incompressible flows using SPH. J. Comput. Phys. 136, 214–226.

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AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND
MODELING OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE
ON REPAST PLATFORM
JIANHONG WU, WENGUO WENG and JING ZHANG
Department of Engineering Physics,
Center for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, China
jh-wu05@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

ABSTRACTAgent based simulation has been accepted in disaster management tomodel the complex interactions among a mass of independent agents. In thispaper, an agent-based model was developed to capture human interactions
during emergency response in an urban area. It provides a reality
simulation environment for testing different population evacuation
strategies and rescue strategies. Emergency response activities are
simulated by modeling each group involved as an agent. Customized agentsplay deferent roles in the simulation and can perform different tasks. The
model is developed based on the Java version of Repast 3.1, and theframework of the simulation is presented. An evacuation case is studied as
an illustration on the map of Huangshi city.
Keywords: Agent-based simulation and modeling, Complex adaptive system,
emergency response, evacuation, Repast

1.

INTRODUCTION

Large scale disasters happen in cities, ranging from natural disasters such as
Asian Tsunami and earthquake in Sichuan of China, to man-made disasters
such as subway sarin gas attack in Tokyo and 9/11 attacks in New York, cando great damage and cause lots of deaths and injuries. Responding in atimely and effective way can save the most lives. The inherent complexityof emergency response poses great challenges for policy-makers to makethe right decision for disaster mitigation. As so, many efforts have been
made by governments to develop emergency response plans for different
scenarios in advance and strengthen the training and drill system. However,there exist no practical way to evaluate the possible consequences of thesepre-defined strategies, such as evacuation plan and resource allocation, in a
specific scenario.

415

October 2008, Beijing, China

Simulation based on desktop can help to solve this problem byproviding a realistic and flexible environment to analyze the system
dynamic of different emergency scenarios and find a best response strategy.
A city is a complex environment for emergency response that a large
number of population and different kinds of resources interacting with eachother. Agent based modeling and simulation (ABMS) has been proved to bea powerful technique to analyze such complex systems. The essential ideaof ABMS is that many phenomena, even very complex ones, can best be
understood as systems of autonomous agents that are simple and follow
relatively simple and follow relatively simple rules for interaction [1].
ABMS provides a framework for developing experimental platform thatdetailed assumptions about the behaviors and interactions of agents can bevaried and the overall dynamics of the whole system will emerge. For
emergency response simulation, the alternative strategies can be defined as
the control rules of agents, and the effectiveness can be evaluated based on
the results of simulations.
Emergency response simulation using ABMS has attracted more andmore attention through recent years. In the field of AI, several multi-agent
models have been developed to simulate the cooperation and coordinationof heterogeneous rescue agent in the adverse environment to find out
informatics solutions for rescue activities. One example of such efforts iswithin Robocup-Rescue Simulation Project. Other simulation frameworks
for disaster rescue include the I-RESCUE and DEFACTO project. Besides
these, some models have been developed to analyze the overall dynamics of
emergency response dynamics. DrillSim is an example of evacuation model
to simulate the evacuation plans of a limited number of agents restricted to afloor of a building. PLANC project of NYC is a platform for urban disaster
simulation and emergency planning features a variety of reality-based
agents interacting on a realistic city map and can simulate the complex
dynamics of emergency responses in different large mass casualty incident
scenarios. Policy for hospital operation can be test and explored.
In this paper, a project of urban disaster simulations based on the java
version of Repast 3.1, a popular software toolkit for ABMS development, isdescribed. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. A total descriptionof the system is presented in section 2. Section 3 describes the agent models
and in section 4, a case of evacuation conducted in the city map of Huangshi
is illustrated. Future work is concluded in section 5.

2.

FRAMEWORK of THE SIMULATIONThe system is an agent-based model of the urban emergency response
dynamics for different natural disasters or chemical, radiological and otherhazardous scenarios. It provides a test bed to simulate and analyze the416

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ICUS Report 31

possible consequence of the disaster and evaluating the effectiveness ofdifferent response plans. The robust multi-agent system can simulate theinteractions of the city residents and rescue resources such as polices, firebrigades and ambulances, and capture the complexity inherent. By
integrating theories and algorithms, it aims to help the government toimprove their preparedness of catastrophes and develop optimal strategies of
evacuation and resource allocation.

Figure 1:

System Architecture

The software architecture of the system is shown in figure 1. The
system is a plug-and-play system consisting of 3 layers. The GIS systemprovides the real geographic space information, such as roads and buildings,
as the environment of the emergency scenarios. The disaster simulator is asimulation program of a type of disaster like flood, explosion or toxic gas
diffusion, that can provide the disaster spreading data over time anddescribes the effect on affected population. The multi-agent system is thecore of the system. Numbers of different kinds of agents are deployed in thesimulation environment to simulate the human behaviors and interactions,
testing the strength of different emergency response plans. The disaster
simulator and the multi-agent system run at each simulation time step andthe results are displayed respectively in the GIS system as two overlays. The
system is flexible and new disaster simulators and agent models can beplugged in, and the disaster dynamics and agent behaviors in different
scenarios can be observed.
The system is developed on the top of the java version of Repast 3.1,
which is one of the most widely used open source toolkits [1]. Repast
provides a friendly, flexible and powerful library that users can easily build
up and run a simulation model and find lots of tools for analysis, statistics
and charts. GIS is also supported by Repast, GIS data can be read anddisplayed by OpenMap or ESRI ArcGIS. Recent release of Repast has
extended it to handle large-scale agent simulation application development.

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3.

TOPOLOGY AND REPRESENTATION OF THE GIS MAP

The simulations are carried out on a GIS environment, especially the road
network of a city. The GIS road map used in the system is a shapefile data.
After network analysis in ArcGIS, the junctions of the roads are extracted
and so the map can be converted into a simple graph with a number of nodes.
Each node represents an intersection of two roads, and each edge represents
a road connecting two nodes. The edges are of different types with different
capacity and all assumed to be bidirectional. All the person and vehicle
agents are restricted to move only along the edges. All the locations likebuildings, hospitals and shelters are all approximated to the nearest node on
the graph. The topology of the roads is exported to a txt file and then readby the Repast project for route planning. The visualization of the map isperformed by Repast. The shapefile data is read and displayed by Openmap,
a free GIS toolkit.

4.

AGENT MODEL

The city population and rescue resources are modeled as different kinds ofagents. An agent is an autonomous component that can sense the world andmake decision of its own to take actions interacting with the environmentand other agents. Every agent in this paper has the same four-component
architecture shown in figure 2. Every agent has the following components:
communication, state, knowledge and action.

Figure 2: Agent Model Architecture
Communication is the interface for an agent to receive data about theenvironment and exchange information with other agents. For instance, aperson in evacuation can see the traffic condition of different roads or findguidance. He can also talk to other people. This component defines what
information an agent can get and what message it can send to other agents.

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Knowledge is some rules and intelligent algorithms stored in the agent.
It contains all the knowledge for making decisions, like the triage of
hospitals and route finding algorithm for persons. These rules or algorithms
can be updated through the simulation by training or learning.
State is the properties collection of an agent, including information
about the status of the agent, like current location, degree of health or rescue
capacities, and all the information an agent knows about the world, like road
network, traffic information, the location and current capacities of known
hospitals. It also contains the decisions the agent has taken, and the plans tobe achieved.
Action is what an agent can do according to its role, like move along
the roads or rescue people. These actions will be performed during thesimulations time steps.
The agent model runs as follows in each time step, shown in Figure 2:
� The agent gets the necessary information about the environment orother agents through Communication.
� This information can be formed and stored into the State.
� After the State is updated, the agent starts the process of decision
making, generating a plan to achieve its goal using the rules andalgorithms stored in the Knowledge based on the known
information of the agent and the world stored in the State.
� The Agent executed the Actions according to the plan.
5.

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKThe complexity inherent for emergency response brings lots of challenge fordecision making. An effective test bed for analyzing the dynamics of
emergency response for different scenarios and evaluating the strength ofrescue strategies is crucial for improving disaster planning and preparedness.
Simulation provides an effective and low-cost approach to address thisproblem.
This paper presents a framework for agent based simulation andmodeling for urban emergency response. By incorporating GIS data, themodel provides a reality environment for analyzing emergency evacuation
and resource allocation in a city. The plug-in architecture makes it easy todefine new agent models or edit behavior rules.
FUTURE WORK
Base on the simulation system, more efforts should be focus on theevaluation and optimization of evacuation plans and resource allocation
models for emergency response. New agent model for residents should be
defined and tested to capture the evacuation phenomenon on the scale of city.
Personalities of people and emergency guidance could be taken into account.

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Rescue activities could be modeled according to the rescue activities in thereal world, and resource allocation Algorithms in the AI can be used. Finally,
the system is able to predict what an output can be reached providing a
response plan as input. Incorporating with optimization mythologies like
operations research or evolution algorithms, we can explore different plans
and get a simulation-based optimized solution for decision-makers.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the supports provided by Beijing
Municipal Science & Technology Commission (D08050600380801).
REFERENCE
Wooldridge M., 2002. An Introduction to Multi-agent Systems. John Wiley& Sons, UK.
Samuelson D., and Charles M., 2006. Agent-based Simulation Comes ofAge, OR/MS Today, Vol. 33, Number 4, pp. 34-38, Lionheart
Publishing.
Hiroaki Kitano, Satoshi Tadokoro. RobCup rescue: A grand challenge formultiagent and intelligent systems. AI Magazine, Spring 2001, 22(1):39-52
Schurr N., Marecki J., Tambe M., Scerri P., Kasinadhuni N., and J.P. Lewis,
The Future of Disaster Response: Humans Working with Multiagent
Teams using DEFACTO. AAAI Spring Symposium on Homeland
Security.
Siebra C., and Tate A., I-RESCUE: A Coalition Based System to Support
Disaster Relief Operations, the Third International Association of
Science and Technology for Development (IASTED), 2003
Massaguer D., Balasubramanian V., Mehrotra S., and Venkatasubramanian.
N., 2006. Multi-agent simulation of disaster response, FirstInternational Workshop on Agent Technology for Disaster
Management, pp. 124-130.
Narzisi G., Mysore V., Nelson L., Rekow D., Triola M., Halcomb L., PortelliI., and Mishra B., Complexities, Catastrophes and Cities: Unraveling
Emergency Dynamics. International Conference on Complex Systems(ICCS 2006), Boston, MA, USA June 25-30, 2006.
Mysore V., Narzisi G., Nelson L., Rekow D., Triola M., Shapiro A.,
Coleman C., Gill O., Daruwala R. S. and Mishra B. Agent Modeling ofa Sarin Attack in Manhattan. The First International Workshop on
Agent Technology for Disaster Management (ATDM), Future
University, Hakodate, Japan, 8th May 2006

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NETWORK BASED PEDESTRIANSIMULATORSHUNSUKE SODEA, TOMOHISA YAMASHITA and ITSUKI NODA
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japanshunsuke.soeda@aist.go.jp
ABSTRACT
We propose a network based pedestrian simulator, for evacuation
simulation from disasters caused by CBR terrorism. There is a recent rise in
the need for systems that could cope with disasters caused by CBR terrorism- terrorism by Chemical, Biological and Radiological weapons. These
disasters, which are likely to be caused in urban areas, have many
characteristics different from natural disasters. These disasters are caused
intentionally, which means we must prepare for the worst; there are still few
case that CBR terrorism were actually conducted, which means we stillknow little about what damage will be caused by such terrorism; unlike
natural disasters, these disasters are not always harmful to some of theurban infrastructure, which means that they could be utilized for more
efficient evacuation. We built a network-based pedestrian simulator, to be
used to estimate the damage done by CBR terrorism. Compared to previous
grid based and space based simulators which took days to conductsimulations with less than thousands of evacuators, our simulator aredesigned to conduct simulations much faster, taking less than ten minutes
for simulation with ten thousands of evacuators. Our simulator can alsoutilize infrastructure available. Currently, we implemented elevators forevacuations from buildings, showing that they could speed up evacuationfrom high story buildings if used properly. Our simulator is designed to be
used with air-flow simulator, which calculates how harmful gases spread.
These results could be used to make and evaluate plans against CBRterrorism.
1. INTRODUCTION
CBR terrorisms – terrorism caused by Chemical, Biological, andRadiological means – are attacks by terrorists against crowds using
hazardous materials. These hazardous materials include toxic gases, bacteria,
viruses, and radioactive substance, and they might be sprinkled, vaporized,or spread with an explosion. As these attacks are targeted against crowds,
they would naturally be conducted in the urban areas.
Although there are fears against such attacks, there are still few casesthat CBR terrorism that was actually conducted. This means that we do nothave much experience that we could rely on when we plan our response for
CBR terrorism. This problem could be solved by using tools to estimate andillustrate the damage done by CBR terrorism.

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In this paper, we show a network based pedestrian simulator that
could be used to simulate people evacuating from CBR terrorism. This
simulator could be used together with gas diffusion simulators currently
being developed by The University of Tokyo, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,
and Advancesoft to estimate the damage done by CBR terrorism. The
simulator handles both indoor evacuations (evacuation from buildings to
outside) and outdoor evacuation. Our simulator has two key features, bothfrom the characteristics of CBR terrorism.
The first feature is that our simulator is much faster than previous
pedestrian simulators. As we do not know much about CBR terrorism, wemust consider various scenarios and evacuation plans, in order to find alikely-to-happen attack and a good evacuation plan to cope with it. For
example, if a toxic gas was spread out-doors, we do not know either weshould have the people inside the buildings to evacuate from the building or
to stay inside. Our simulator models evacuation paths as links connecting
nodes. It could simulate several phenomena seen in disaster evacuation,
while being able to conduct the simulation up to 5 times the speed of realtime.
The second feature is that our simulator can simulate evacuation usingtransportation infrastructure. As CBR terrorism is not an attack directly to
infrastructures, there are chances to utilize such infrastructure for evacuation.
These infrastructure ranges from public transportation such as buses andtrains, to building infrastructures such as elevators.
In section 2, we show how we designed the network based pedestrian
simulator. In section 3, we show elevators incorporated in our simulator, as
an example of an infrastructure in our simulation. In section 4, we makeconcluding remarks.
2. NETWORK BASED PEDESTRIAN SIMULATOR
Various kinds of pedestrian simulators have been developed for various
purposes. Pan roughly classifies them into three categories (2006); fluid andparticle systems, matrix-based systems, and emergent systems. However, allof these systems are two dimensional systems, which allow evacuating
people to move around two dimensionally.
Unlike other pedestrian simulators, our simulator simplifies theevacuation path by representing it with a graph model – a model with links
and nodes (Fig. 1). The paths where the evacuating people move around are
represented as links, and these links are connected at nodes. As theevacuating people could move only along the links, our model is more one
dimensional than two dimensional.

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Figure 1: 2D model and Network modelThis approach has often been used in traffic simulators (Burmeister,2002), but not for pedestrian simulator. We chose the network model for our
simulator, as we concentrated on the macroscopic side of evacuation. Our
simulator cannot, for example, simulate people evacuating large space, but
could be used to reveal bottlenecks in the evacuation as well as to compare
evacuation plans.
2.1

The Speed of Evacuating Person

The speed of an evacuating person is calculated from the density of
the crowd on the link. Each link has a width and a length, which is used to
calculate the area of the link. Then, the density of the crowd on the link
could be calculated from the number of people on the link.
The speed of a person is calculated from the following formula, wherev0 represent the speed of the person when not in a crowd, and d represents
the density of the crowd:(1)
Figure 2: shows the coefficient to the speed

Figure 2: The coefficient of the speed and the density of the crowd

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The exception to this formula is the person on the head of a crowd on
the link. For this person, the speed v0 is used regardless of how the link is
crowded. Note that when the density of a link exceeds 4people/m2, all thepeople on the link cannot move except for the one who is on the head of thecrowd.
2.2

Confluence

Confluences – where two or more paths meet together – slow down
the evacuation. To illustrate slow-down by confluence, we used a simple
model of limiting the number of people who could enter a link.

Figure 3: Modeling confluence
The maximum number of people entering link lout is determined fromthe width of the link. When there are people on lout already, the number ofpeople that could enter lout is decreased at some ratio. When there are morethan two links where people are trying to enter lout, this number is divided
among the links depending on the number of people trying to enter lout. Also,in this case, the total number of people able to enter lout is also reduced.
3. UTILIZING TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Evacuation using infrastructures such as buses and elevators are usually notconsidered in evacuation from disasters, as these infrastructures are usually
damaged by the disaster and are not usable. However, attacks by CBRterrorism do not necessarily damage such infrastructures, and thus might beused for evacuation.
Planning how to use resources such as transportation is itself achallenging problem. Therefore, we first started by implementing a simple
elevator for indoor evacuation.

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3.1

Elevators

The elevators are implemented as special type of links, which people
could move through only at specific conditions; when they are on a carriage.
The carriage runs under simple rules:� When the carriage is empty, it goes to the topmost floor where
there are people waiting for the elevator.
� The carriage fills itself up to the capacity, and then goes straightto the floor closest to the exit, ignoring intermediate floors.
People who use the elevators are pre-defined; that is, a person who
uses elevators goes straight to the elevator hall if it is ever available, andnever uses stairs unless they are on floors that do not have elevators taking
them closer to the exit.
3.2

Experiments

We conducted an experiment to see if elevators are any effective inevacuating from buildings. Two 37-floored building with 6 sets of elevatorsand 2 sets of stairs was used for the experiment. The buildings areconnected to an underground mall, which have exits away from thebuildings. The elevators have the capacity of 20 people, and moves at 1m/s.
Each building had 7,500 people evenly distributed among the building,making a total of 15,000 people evacuating. The speed of the evacuators
varies, but averages to 1.3m/s on flat floor, and their speed drop to 0.7 timesof this on stairs. The evacuators head for exits through the underground mall.
They try to take the shortest path to the closest exit.
We increased the number of evacuators using elevators from 0 to
2,500, and recorded how long it will take for all the evacuators to evacuate
to the exits. The results are shown in fig. 4.
As seen from the results, the time to evacuate all people in thebuilding slightly decreases up to around 1,000 people using the elevator.
However, when more than 1,000 people use the elevator, the total
evacuation time increases. This is caused by people who wait for theelevator even when the stairs are not crowded.

Figure 4: The time to evacuate using elevators

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4. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
We proposed a network based pedestrian simulator, which could be used tosimulate evacuation from CBR terrorism attacks. The simulator could be run
5 times faster than real time, enabling simulation of various scenarios andvarious evacuation plans. Elevators are also implemented in the simulator,
as an example of evacuation using infrastructures. We showed that using
elevators could speed up evacuation if used properly.
The following future work are suggested:� The combination with other pedestrian simulators; the network
based pedestrian simulator is not good at simulating open areas.
The combination with other types of simulator could improve this.
� Transportation infrastructures; other kind of infrastructures eachhave their difficulties, e.g. buses share the road with pedestrians.
ACKNOWLEGEMENT
This work was supported by the Science and Technology for Safe andSecure Society Project by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology of Japan.
REFERENCES
Burmeister, B., Haddadi, A., Matylis, G. 2002, Application of Multi-Agent
Systems in Traffic and Transportation. Software Engineering, Vol.
144, Issue 1, 51-60.
Pan, X., 2006. Computational Modelling of Human and Social Behaviours
for Emergency Egress Analysis. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department ofCivil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University.

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RESEARCH ON THE ARCHITECTURE OF
EMERGENCY INTELLIGENT DECISIONSUPPORT SYSTEMQUAN SHAO, WENGUO WENG and HONGYONG YUAN
Center for Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, P. R. China
shaoq06@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
Nowadays, due to increasing congestion in industrial complexes andincreasing density of human population around such complexes, decisionsmaking of emergency become more and more difficult. The architecture of
emergency intelligent decision support system (EIDSS) is presented, which
consists of an information system, a model base, a knowledge base, and acase base. The EIDSS is mainly based on the emergency model base. GIS
technology was used to integrate geographic data and emergency related
data. The decision-making processes included emergency simulations, risk
assessment, emergency response, loss evaluation and emergency material
allocation. An illustrative case is used to show how to use the EIDSS to help
emergency decision-making. The EIDSS provides a good emergency
solution and dynamic model combination according to different decisionmaking environment and objects. Quantitative physical model and themethod of comprehensive evaluation based on analytic hierarchy process
can be used to quantify some decisions. The results are useful to help
managers make scientific preparedness plan during emergency response
1. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays, due to increasing congestion in industrial complexes andincreasing density of human population around such complexes, decisionsmaking of emergency become more and more difficult. One of the principal
problems of emergency intelligent decision support system (EIDSS) in
technical domains is to bridge the gap between the information system, themodel base, the knowledge base, the case base and the geographically
distributed resources. Another problem is how to bridge the gap between
emergency simulations, risk assessment, emergency response, loss
evaluation and emergency material allocation.
Decision Support System (DSS) design is an inter-disciplinary
research topic that spans many disciplines such as industrial engineering,
computer science, and psychology (Nan, 2002). DSS in the military,
medical, financial and other aspects have been successfully applied. But the
DSS application in disasters and emergencies management and handling is
still in its early stage. Risk assessment and management is the main functionof some disasters and emergencies decision support system. To represent the427

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underlying processes, such as, for example, chemical spills, atmosphericdispersion, fire, and explosion, scientifically based analysis requires
complex dynamic and three-dimensional stochastic models (e.g., Fedra,
1995, 1998). The use of such complex analytical tools is difficult anddemanding. To use them in a real-time decision-making situation, and, inparticular, under the stress of an incident management scenario, is nearly
impossible. The same is true for the domain of technical training, where theinherent complexity of the underlying tools is supposed to support thetraining by providing a more realistic problem representation and analyticalcapabilities, rather than to distract from the core message of a lecture unit.
One approach to a solution is the integration of expert systemtechnology with model-based decision support systems. The role of expert
systems as pre- and post- processors for environmental simulation models iswell documented (e.g., Hushon, 1990; Liebowitz, 1997; Fedra, 2000). Herethe expert system can perform the role of the overall logical framework, thedomain expert or tutor that selects, configures, runs, and interprets theanalytical tools depending on the evolving context of an application such as
the control of an emergency situation. The primary function is to provide awell-structured simplified access to the complexity of the underlying
analytical tools. But the sequence of model operation is a rigid or a rulebase framework is predefined in many expert systems. So many expert
systems can’t improve their intelligence by learning form the process ofusing the systems.
By combining the paradigms of forward chaining systems that easily
can be adapted to a dynamic, protocol-based but context-sensitive and timeaware action sequence and a backward chaining strategy that can be used tocompile and classify information required for the analytical tools and tointerpret their results, a new hybrid expert system strategy has beendeveloped(Fedra, 2002). In combination with a powerful heterarchicalobject data structure describing the elements of an application such as thecontrol of an emergency situation, including simulation models and a rangeof classical relational databases, GIS, and on-line data acquisition, aversatile environmental decision support system with real-timecharacteristics for real-time decision support can be configured. Related
concepts and applications of expert systems can be found in Hushon(1990),
Diaz (1995),AICE(1995),Sriram(1997),and Jain(1998). The chaining of theaction sequence in these systems are predefined directions. But somecomplex and changeful emergency situations can’t be solved by operational
chaining of predefined directions; they need indefinite amount model andother knowledge from other intelligent systems parallel operation andanalysis.
The EIDSS is not only expert system for risk assessment andmanagement, but also have the function of emergency response, loss
evaluation and emergency material allocation. The EIDSS design start withtask analysis, which breaks the task into hierarchical subtasks and the maps
the relationships between the subtasks. The emergency event management
process is decomposed as some basic subtasks such as even simulation, risk
assessment, emergency response, loss evaluation and emergency material
allocation. The EIDSS is a real-time DSS follows human or a set of task

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analysis agents, dynamically defining a sequence of subtasks, solving theevent or task at hand. The relationship network is dynamic.
2. THE ARCHITECTURE OF EIDSS
2.1

The framework of the EIDSSThe EIDSS is not just model-based decision support system, which
combines the information system, the model base, the knowledge base, thecase base and the geographically distributed resources. The body of the
EIDSS is the model base, but the system has some server-agents which canprovide help and advice based on other bases or systems. The framework of
the EIDSS is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: The framework of the EIDSSThe EIDSS is a rule-based DSS which can either be goal driven using
backward chaining to test whether some hypothesis is true, or data driven,using forward chaining to draw new conclusions from existingdata(e.g.,Liebowitz,1997;Nilsson, 1998). Forward chaining implies thatupon assertion of new knowledge all relevant inductive rules are fired
exhaustively, effectively making all knowledge about the current state
explicit within the state. Forward chaining may be regarded as progress

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from a known state (the original knowledge) toward a goal state. Backward
chaining systems work from a goal state back to the original state. Thismeans that no rules are fired upon assertion of new knowledge. When an
unknown predicate about a known piece of knowledge is detected, all rules
relevant to the knowledge in question are fired until the question is
answered or until quiescence.
In the EIDSS environment, forward chaining is used for helping theuser to turn the task into subtasks sequence in the information system andguiding the user using the model base to achieve task from one subtask to
the next subtask based on the new information compiled from otherresources including knowledge base, case base and user’s inputs. The
forward chaining achieve the emergency decision-making according toemergency information. Backward chaining is used for getting new
knowledge from the case base including the EIDSS previous operation
records for decision-making. The new knowledge can modify the rules of
the agent which can judge the implementation status of the task or subtask
and improve the intelligence and efficiency of the task agent.
2.2

The Information System

The information system must deal with the immense volume of
information coming in from the emergency commanders’ dictates and theemergency event monitoring systems. The main function of the information
system is a process of learning the users’ decision-making tasks andinformation dependency between subtasks. The functions of the information
system are two-fold; (1) to break the decision-making tasks into subtasks,and (2) to identify information dependencies between subtasks. The
information system focuses on the following areas: (1) what tasks andsubtasks are involved for the decision point, and (2) what information (fromother decisions or subtasks in the process) is required, and (3) how
information is passed between subtasks.
The subtasks include emergency simulations, risk assessment,
emergency response, loss evaluation and emergency material allocation, etc.
The actual sequence of tasks and subtasks within a project is depending on
its status and dynamic context; the conditional action sequence is defined bya task agent. According to the user’s need or task analysis rules, the task
agent breaks the decision-making tasks and objectives of tasks into subtasks
and objectives of the subtasks. Figure 2 shows the task analysis process of
the information system. The objectives of subtask can help the EIDSS
choose the appropriate models from the model base or the decisions fromother databases. These task analysis rules refer in their condition parts to theusers’ dynamically evolving need and the results of context subtasks or the
new information from the emergency event monitoring systems. So thesequence and the amount of the subtasks are dynamical.

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Figure 2: The task analysis process of the information system
2.3

The Model Base

The model base is the main decision-making tool in the EIDSS.
Decision-making with model is the basis of intelligent decision-making, cansolve most of subtasks in the emergency decision-making process.
Emergency decision-making process of solving the problem with themodels haves four stages: (1) getting the information which the subtasksneed at all stages from the information system; (2) choosing the optimalmodel or the suitable model at every stage, according to the relevant
information of the subtasks, the result of the related models and objectivesof the subtasks; (3) running the selected models according to the models
arranged in the order, at the same time, transferring the previous model
output parameters to the corresponding input parameters of the later models;(4) repeating the three steps in order until complete all the subtasks to get
emergency decision making relevant information. The model chain �M1i�
M2j���Mnk� which is combined with the optimal model or satisfied
model at all the stages is an optimal or satisfied solving model program forthe emergency decision-making(QI Changsong, 2007 ). The framework of
the emergency decision-making process and the relationship between themodels can come into being a model solving space.
Since the framework for decision-making process with the time
passing, the circumstances or the information changing needs dynamicchange, but the number of subtasks is limited, the objectives of subtasks isrelatively clear, the relationship between the subtasks is clear in a certain
time period. So the model solving space of the emergency decision-making
process can be formed the models compounding structure network as shownin Figure 2. The models compounding network describes the relationshipbetween the models and the transmission relationship between theparameters in the decision-making process. The information flowing
operation Op � subtask(stage) � information � or related model � �model�in the Figure 3 shows the model need the information (or related
model) to use in the subtask (or stage).

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2S

2S


6
0


OW
VX
5H

0Q
Q

Figure 3: The models compounding structure network
According to the emergency decision-making process, the emergency
decision-making using the compounding models can be considered aschoosing the suitable model combination framework with emergency
information. The information system gives the optimal or suitable subtask
sequence or net, and the model base uses corresponding optimization
algorithms to choose optimal or satisfied models in accordance with thesubtask objectives and relevant information. The emergency information isanalyzed by the selected models, the information transfers in the model
chain to achieve the best value of benefits or to meet the emergency
decision-making requirements. In other words, the optimal solution ofmodel compounding models is corresponding to the best or satisfied pathfrom the initial node to the target node. We can see that getting the optimal
solution or a satisfied solution for the emergency decision making isequivalent of search the best or satisfied path from the initial information to
the information required by emergency decision-making in the model
solving space. As a result, the model solution for the emergency decisionmaking can be turned into searching the best or satisfied path in the model
solving space.
2.4

Other Base and Resources

The system controls the communication with the various actors
involved, and it provides guidance and advice based on the rules and several
databases, including the embedded GIS for spatial analysis, case base for432

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operation knowledge or knowledge base for scenario, general knowledge
and model selecting rule.
Many models based on the GIS spatial analysis are used to simulation,risk assessment, emergency response, loss evaluation and emergency
material allocation. The models read parts of their input from the GIS or the
result of GIS spatial analysis to ensure that their parameter sets represent thebest current knowledge about an emergency event. The results of the models
based on the GIS technology are more actual results than those without GIS.
Backward chaining to provide support for data compilation andestimation has proven very effective for the implementation of a real-timeenvironmental decision support system. For example, the system operation
records are accessed in the case base which analyzes the records andcompares the calculated results of models with the real results for evaluating
the operation and models performance. The analysis results can become newrules or new knowledge for knowledge case which can provide scenario,
rules and general knowledge such as hazardous material character.
3. CONCLUSION
The architecture of emergency intelligent decision support system (EIDSS)
is presented. The rule-based framework makes it easy to guide the user
through complex tasks that involve complex tools. By combining theintelligent model base with information system, GIS, case base andknowledge base, it becomes possible to bring together advanced analytical
tools with an easy to use decision support framework for emergency
response.
The information system can implement a real-time task analysis
follows human or a set of task analysis agents, dynamically defining asequence of subtasks at hand, and the model base can dynamically choose
the suitable model combination framework with emergency information andrun the selected models to solve the event or task at hand.
The EIDSS can use dynamic chaining with indefinite amount modeland other knowledge from other intelligent systems to parallel operate andanalyze for some complex and changeful emergency events.
The system as a driver for both the sequence of the necessary steps, aswell as for the preparation and interpretation of model runs and their results
provides a powerful set of tools that can be configured for a broad range ofapplications.
The EIDSS provides a good emergency solution and dynamic model
combination according to different decision-making environment andobjects. Quantitative physical model and the method of comprehensive
evaluation based on analytic hierarchy process can be used to quantify somedecisions. The results are useful to help managers make scientificpreparedness plan during emergency response.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the supports provided by Beijing
Municipal Science & Technology Commission (D08050600380801).

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REFERENCES
Nan Tu. (2002), TASKICDA: A methodology for designing multi-agent
decision support systems. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Minnestoa,157
pp.
Fedra,K. (1995), Chemicals in the environment :GIS ,models ,and expert
systems, in James Devillers, Ed., Toxicology Modelling,1(1), Carfax
Publishing Company,UK,pp.43–55.
Fedra,K. (1998),Integrated risk assessment and management: overview andstate-of-the-art, Journal of Hazardous Materials, 61,5–22.
Fedra,K. (2000), Environmental Decision Support Systems: A Conceptual
Framework and Application Examples. Ph.D. Thesis, University ofGeneva,368 pp.
Hushon,J.(1990), Expert Systems for Environmental Applications, ACS
Symposium Series ,431, American Chemical Society, Washington,
D.C.
Jain, L.C.,Ed., (1998), Knowledge-Based Intelligent Techniques in Industry,
CRC Press International Series on Computational Intelligence, CRC
Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Liebowitz, J.,Ed.,(1997), The Handbook of Applied Expert Systems, CRC
Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Nilsson, N.J. (1998), Artificial Intelligence, A New Synthesis, Morgan
Kaufmann, San Francisco.
Sriram, R.D.(1997), Intelligent Systems for Engineering: A KnowledgeBased Approach, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg.
Tsai, J.J-P. &Weigert, T. (1993), Knowledge-Based Software Developmentfor Real-Time Distributed Systems, Series on Software Engineeringand Knowledge, Volume 1,World Scientific Pub Co, Hackensack, NJ.
AICE (1995), Expert Systems in Process Safety, American Institute ofChemical Engineers.
Diaz,A.C.(1995), Condale: a Canadian AI success story, Canadian Artificial
Intelligence, 36(Winter).
Kurt Fedra (2002), Lothar Winkelbauer. A Hybrid Expert System, GIS, andSimulation Modelling for Environmental and Technological Risk
Management, Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
17, pp.131–146
QI Changsong (2007), SUN Jigui. Model Net: A Representation of theStatic Structure of Modelbase [J]. International Journal of Pattern
Recognition and Artificial Intelligence, 2007, 21(4): 791-807.

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ANALYSIS OF THE EMERGENCYDERIVATION CHAIN CHARACTERISTICSCAUSED BY SNOW DISASTERCHANGKUN CHEN, YUNFENG SUN and ZHI LI
Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology Institute, Central
South UniversityˈChangsha Hunan China 410075
Email: cckchen@mail.csu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Phenomena of serial derivation crises which caused by snow
disaster are described with snow disaster derivation chain (SDDC).
Economy damage induced by snow crisis in South China at 2008 is
mainly due to its serial derivation crises. Based on the analysis on theevolutive process of snow disaster crises, special categories and featuresof the SDDC are obtained and the controlling methods are given.
Research purpose is to reduce the damage influence of the snow disastercrises, and provide theoretical foundation for controlling them.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Snow disaster can bring about series of social and economic problems.
Especially, snow disaster crises occurring in South China in 2008 haveserious damages to the People's living and society, such as thediscontinuance of Beijing-Guangzhou railway line and the traffic paralysis
in Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway. According to the official statistics, economic
loss reached 200 billion Yuan, 11.8 million hm2 of crops area is affected,
354 000 buildings collapsed and 107 people were death in the disaster.
At present, research on the snow disaster is mainly focusing on thefollowing aspects, such as the cause of snow disaster, classification,
prediction, numerical simulation, real-time monitoring, assessment andemergency management of snow crises are analyzed [1-3]. However, there
are few researches on snow disaster crisis evolvement itself, and theinfluence of the evolutive characteristics of the snow disaster crisis on themeasure establishment for the risk control is ignored [4]. Characteristics ofdifferent evolutive chains in the snow disaster are analyzed in order toreduce the damages and realize the risk control.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

2.

ANALYSIS OF EVOLUTIONARYDISASTER CRISESPROCESSOF

SNOW

The evolvement of snow disaster crises is defined as the process of snow
disaster crises evolving to the succedent derived disasters. The evolutionary
process based on the snow disaster in South China is analyzed as shown in
Figure 1.

Figure 1: Flow chart of snow disaster crises evolvement

3.

ANALYSIS OF CATEGORIES AND FEATURES OF SDDC

SDDC are divided into four special categories in this paper and theirfeatures and control methods are proposed further.
Straight chain structure of snow disaster crises
Straight chain structure of the derived snow crisis is given as therelationship of the single causal disaster affair causing the corresponding
single derived crisis affair as the example shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Straight chain structure
The characteristics of straight chain structure are presented as follows:
the simplex relationship between the cause and effect of crisis affairs is that
one cause results in one corresponding effect which is also the cause ofanother effect, so the final effect would not occur with the break of one partof the chain. The control on the straight chains can be realized by breaking
the earlier part of the cause and effect chain.
Straight divergent chain structure of snow disaster crises
Straight divergent chain structure of the derived snow crisis isexpressed as the relationship that the single causal crisis affair results incorresponding several derived disaster affairs as shown in Fig.3.

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
The characteristics of straight divergent chain structure are proposed
as follows: the comparative complicated relationship between the cause andeffect of crisis affairs is that one cause results in several corresponding
effects which are also the cause of other effects, so these final effects would
not happen if only it’s corresponding causal crisis affair is controlled.

Figure 3: straight divergent chain structure
Self-circulation chain structure of snow disaster crises
The structure of self-circulation chain is defined as the relationshipthat the single derived crisis affair is induced by corresponding single causal
disaster affair, and especially the last effect in the chain can also lead to thefirst cause affair to form a close cycle crisis chain, which is shown in Fig.
4(a) and Figure 4(b) as examples.

(a)(b)
Figure 4: Self-circulation chain structure: (a) price rising Self-circulation
chain (b) power failure Self-circulation chain
The characteristics of self-circulation chain structure are given as
follows: self-circulation chain of the derived snow crisis is a cricoid
structure, so that it would be destroyed if the connection between any cause
and effect in the chain is broken.
Concentrative chain structure of snow disaster crises
Concentrative chain structure is described as that the relationship ofseveral causal crisis affairs leading to the same derived disaster affair which
is illustrated as shown in Fig.5.

Analysis of the Emergency Derivation Chain Characteristics Caused by Snow Disaster437

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 5: Concentrative chain structure
The characteristics of concentrative chain structure are presented asfollows: the complicated relationship between the cause and effect of crisis
affairs is that one effect is caused by several corresponding causes which arealso the effects of other causes, so the final effect would not happen only
when all of its causal affairs are avoided.

4.

CONCLUSION

Four categories of SDDC namely straight chain structure, straight divergent
chain structure, self-circulation chain structure and concentrative chain
structure are analyzed and summarized based on the evolutionary processesof snow disaster crises in 2008. Then the controlling methods are proposed.
And the most important emergency measurement for the disaster is tocontrol the key factors of the derived chain and destroy the relation between
the causal and result affairs.

REFERENCES
Stanley A. Changnon and David Changnon., 2005. Snowstorm catastrophes
in the United States. Environmental Hazards, Vol.6 No.3: 158-166.
XU Geng-hui., 2005. Recent Advances and Expection in Studies ofPrecaution Against Snow Disaster in Pasture. Bimonthly of XinJiang
Meteorology, Vol. 28 No.3: 1-6.
Gao an-ning, Chen jian, Li yan-lan., 2008. Assessment and Thinking on theRare Frozen D isaster in 2008 in Guangxi. Journal of Catastrophology.
Vol.23 No.2: 83-86.
Chen Chang-kun, Sun yun-feng, Li Zhi., 2008, Analysis of the Emergency
derivation chain caused by ice disaster. Jouranal of Institute ofDisaster-Prevention Science and Technology. Vol.10 No.2: 67-71.

438

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

URBAN FIRE RISK MAPPING USING GIS:A CASE STUDY OF YUSHAN TOWNIN KUNSHAN CITY, CHINA
CHENGCHENG GAI, WENGUO WENG and HONGYONG YUAN
Center for Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics,
Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
gaicc07@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
Urban fire is a usual disaster in real life, causes huge live loss,
property loss and infrastructure collapse. Urban fire risk assessment model,
in order to identify, classify and map fire hazard areas is presented in thispaper. This model considers several influence factors in urban fires,
including building density, building fire resistance rating, population
density, land use, distance from hazardous building, water and fire station.
Through GIS spatial analytical procedure, the fire risk ranging from high to
low is derived, according to its sensitivity to fire or fire-inducing capability.
Spatial analyst is used to combine some single influence factor risk maps todisplay the total fire risk map. This model is illustrated with a case study offire risk of Yushan town in Kunshan city. It is suggested that risk mapping is
helpful for the urban fire management to minimize urban fire hazard. In
addition, advantages and disadvantages of this approach, and therecommendation are discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
With the development of economy and rapid urbanization process, the city
scale is extended rapidly, while the city population increases fast.
Preventing and administering urban fire accidents has become one of thesignificant urban problems for city fire managers. Because of the highly
population density and economic value in city, urban fire usually causes
more life and property loss than the industrial fire and wildfire.
The development of GIS (Geographic Information System) has
provided a powerful tool for managing and solving city safety problems.
GIS is a professional computer system for collecting, storing, managing,
retrieving, transforming, analyzing, and displaying of spatial data. It can beused for many kinds of purpose in both macro and micro scales. In the
public safety field, GIS can make comprehensive analysis using the natural,social and economic spatial data. Especially in the natural disaster area, GIS
has been applied in the simulation and early warning system, emergency
management system, and disaster damage assessment etc.
Fire risk assessment has three forms: single building, enterprise (eg.
Petrochemical Enterprise) and region (eg. forest or city). Region urban fire439

October 2008, Beijing, China

assessment is a new research topic, and little research is related to it. It has
many problems in urban fire assessment and map of fire hazard.
Each year, urban fire causes tremendous loss of natural resources,
human lives and property. A better job of effectively guarding against therisk and reducing the loss is important for both long-term urban fire
management planning and strategies. To minimize this threat, the foremost
task is to identify urban fire hazards in the study area. Following theidentification, a precisely analysis on the potential hazards is made, withreasonable planning and improving. Japan government has carried out theclassification of city hazards to show the different risk rate. This method,
considering territorial meteorological elements, wood-frame construction of
species, communications facilities and fire control safety system, adopts fireengineering methods, statistical techniques and quantitative evaluation
algorithm to determine the risk class. Yang Hongrui developed a statistic
model of fire risk assessment based on fire losses, population density,
buildings density, road density and fire protection force. Using GIS toanalyze the urban fire risk, the operation process of fire-zone division is set
up by using spatial analysis of ARCVIEW. Yin Haiwei et al. selected main
forest fire factors to quantify the forest fire risk with factor-weights union
method under GIS. It showed a higher reliability through comparing to theactual fire-affected sites in 1987. Iwan Setiawan et al. implemented aspatially weighted index model to develop the fire hazard assessment model.
Fire-causing factors such as land use, road network, slope, aspect andelevation data were considered. It produced a final peat swamp forest fire
hazard map, which was validated through the actual fire occurrence map.
Emilio Chuvieco et al. made some improvement that topography,
meteorological data, fuel models and human-caused risk were mapped andincorporated within a GIS. Three danger maps of probability of ignition,
fuel hazard and human risk were generated, and all of them were overlaid in
an integrated fire danger map.
The purpose of this study is to develop an urban fire risk assessment
model, in order to identify, classify and map fire hazard areas. Such maps
will help the Fire Department officials prevent and minimize urban fire
activities, and plan city fire protection construction. The risk evaluation
results will be revealed on GIS thematic map, which is convenient for large
scale study in short time, especially for decision making and management.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
2.1

Study Area

The study area is Yushan Town as the seat of Kunshan city
government. Kunshan City is a county-level city under the jurisdiction of
Suzhou, located in the Yangtze River Delta, between two metropolises,
Shanghai and Suzhou. The Yushan Town is chosen for the study since it isrepresentative of a typical and urbanizing town in the Jiangsu province.
Yushan town is a modern and industrially vital town, which has aphysical land size of 118 square kilometers and a population of 180,000

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people. Because of the significant growth, it is desirable to plan seriously
for safety management. (Fig.1)

Figure1: Location of the study area andlands at TM image of the kunshan city
2.2 Methods
GIS has powerful abilities of spatial information analysis. Users canacquire new knowledge and information through the observation andexperiment of the initial data, so as to make decisions based on it. In acertain area, there would be multiple theme maps to illustrate all kinds ofinformation about it. This data can be vector layer of point, line, surface andraster layer structure.
The process for data collection and preparation in order to integrate
the model with GIS is presented in Figure 2.
The main objective of the research is to assess the potential of urban
fire hazard. This is to be achieved by correlating information collected in thefield. In addition, the selections of variables for spatial analyses are
influenced by the availability of data in this area. Hazards differ from place
to place due to variations in land use, structural density patterns, population
Urban Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS: A Case Study of Yushan Town in Kunshan City, China

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October 2008, Beijing, China

density and demographic indices. A spatially weighted index model is used
to develop the fire hazard model. This model considered the influence ofseveral factors in urban fires. Based on the local conditions, parameters suchas building density, building fire resistance rating, population density, landuse, distance from hazardous building, water and fire station are taken into
consideration.

Figure2: Flow chart of urban fire risk methodology
According to the various factors affecting the fire, they are divided
into several levels, such as the reunification of five. Each class has different
values. The weight to the class of each factor is determined subjectively by
the severity observed in the local condition, from 1 (low) to 10 (high). Fivecategories of urban fire risk ranging from very high to very low are derived
automatically.
The building density is classified according to their attribute that has
an influence on ignition and spread of building fires. The building fire
resistance rating is created according to the combustion property of building
materials and components. The materials flammability increases the chanceof catching fire and the rate of fire spread. Population density and land use
are assigned many classes too. It is usually stated that the greater the
population in a locality, the greater the fire risk. A dense commercial region
will pose a different level of hazard comparing to a residential or industrial
region. Distances from hazardous building, water, and fire station haveimportant influences on urban fire. The risk decreases farther from thehazardous building. However, distances from water and fire station are
considered to be an easily accessible existing technology of the fire service.
It means that a zone closer to these places is evaluated a lower rating. The
weights and classes of the variables assumed are given in the Table 1.
For a certain region, the fire risk is calculated with the data acquired
and the weights for each variable based on the local condition. The equation
used in GIS to determine the fire hazard model is shown in Equation (1).

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F_R_V = W1* B_D + W2* B_F_R + W3* P_D + W4* L_U + W5*
D_H_B + W6* D_W + W7* D_F_S(1)
Where F_R_V is the numerical index of Fire Risk; B_D is the Valueof Building Density; B_F_R is the Value of Building fire resistance rating;
P_D is the Value of Population Density; L_U is the Value of Land Use;
D_H_B is the Value of Distance from Hazardous Building; D_W is theValue of Distance from Water; D_F_S is the Value of Distance from Fire
Station. Wi (i=1…7) is the weight of the risk index value.
Table1: Classification of fire hazard factors and criteria scores
Variables
Building Density

Weights
9

Classes

Based on the kernelsmoothing in GIS
Building Fire
Resistance Rating

7

Population Density

9Land Use

5

Distance from
Hazardous Building

7

Distance from Water

3

Distance from Fire Station

5

Č
ċ
Ċ
ĉ
>1200People per
Square Kilometer
900-1200People per
Square Kilometer
600-900People per
Square Kilometer
300-600People per
Square Kilometer
0-300 People per
Square Kilometer
Commercial region
Residential region
Industrial region
Education & sport region
others0-300m
300-600m
600-900m
900-1200m>1200m>200m
150-200m
100-150m
50-100m
0-50m>1200m
900-1200m
600-900m
300-600m
0-300mValues
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Urban Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS: A Case Study of Yushan Town in Kunshan City, China

443

October 2008, Beijing, China

With the description in the above section, the final factors adopted for theurban fire risk map are building density, distance from hazardous building,water and fire station considering the actual situation and GIS data of
Yushan town in Kunshan city.
3.1 Building Density
Building density is an important influence factor because building fireis one of the most serious forms of urban fire. The larger the spaces between
buildings, the greater the chances that the fire can be extinguished. Largebuilding density can result in high fire load, so the fire spread fast. Large
crowds of people gather in the buildings. The map of building distribution
can represent fire risk to a certain point.
One of the techniques for performing this analysis is kernel density
estimation methods (KDE methods) or kernel smoothing, a spatial statisticalmethod that generates a map of density values from the point event data. In
the spatial analysis, kernel smoothing creates a smooth map of density
values in which the density at each location reflects the concentration ofpoints in the surrounding area. Each point contributes to the density value ofthat grid cell based on its distance from the center. Nearby points are given
more weight in the density calculation than those farther away. The building
density calculation of the kernel smoothing is performed using ArcGIS
software. Buildings are shown as points in this map, with areas of higher
kernel density being shown in darker tones. From the raster image, we canquickly identify the high-density sites. In accordance with reclassifying this
input raster, relating classes from 1 to 5 were designated, representing
building density based fire risk value, which is shown in Fig. 3 and 4.

Figure 3: Building density distribution as a factor affecting fire risk

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Figure 4: Kernel smoothing building density map
3.2 Distance from Hazardous Building
Distances from hazardous building, water and fire station are
produced according to Table 1, and fire risk value of each sub-compartment
based on these factors is obtained. In general, cases of urban fire occur morein the areas of hazardous building (such as Gas Station, petrochemicalindustry, etc.) nearby than in the areas of father away. These areas produce
and store inflammable or explosive dangerous goods, which has greatly
increased the fire risk level around them.
Euclidean distance is one of the main ways to perform distanceanalysis in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. We use the Euclidean distance tool tomeasure straight-line distance from each cell to the closest source andclassify by distance. The distances are measured as the crow flies(Euclidean distance) in the projection units of the raster, such as feet or
meters and are computed from cell center to cell center. Distance fromhazardous building is mapping according to Table 1. The distances represent
different levels of risk, with closer areas being shown in darker tones. Fig. 5
gives the distance distribution from hazardous buildings.
3.3 Distance from Water
It is believed that humans near the water sources can easily put the fireout. The water source, as a fire risk reducing factor, also can be used as anatural barrier to prevent the spread of fire. It is converted into a rastersurface and again the Euclidean distance function is used to calculate thedistance from each area. Fig. 6 shows the distance distribution from water.

Urban Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS: A Case Study of Yushan Town in Kunshan City, China

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 5: Distance from hazardous building as a factor affecting fire risk

Figure 6: Distance from water as a factor affecting fire risk
3.4 Distance from Fire Station
It is expected that the distance from a grid cell to the nearest area offire station would influence the Fire size and spread. Fire station is afundamental force to putting the fire out. The closer to the fire stations, thelesser time the firefighters spent on the way. So it’s much safer near the firestation. To simulate this factor area classified as anything other than the firestations are converted into a raster and then a Euclidean distance function is
run on them to determine the distance from these areas. Fig.7 gives the
distance distribution from fire station.

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Figure 7: Distance from fire station as a factor affecting fire risk
3.5 Final Map of Fire Risk
Based on Equation (1), F_R_V was calculated and classified using
ArcGIS software with assigning subjective weights to the classes of all thelayers to produce the final map of urban fire risk.
This raster method is better than vector buffers for effective
calculation in GIS. The different weighted overlay is calculated by Raster
Calculator in ArcGIS Spatial analyst. We input and analyze multiple rastervariables from different sources. The final fire risk map is displayed in Fig.
8. This Figure shows that high risk zones mainly distribute in the center ofthe city, not far off the actual observation. It is also shown that the areas
near the fire stations are safe.

Figure 8: Final map of fire risk in the study area

Urban Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS: A Case Study of Yushan Town in Kunshan City, China

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4. CONCLUSIONSThis spatially weighted index model utilizing GIS Spatial Analyst andmulti-criteria analysis is presented to represent the fire risk in the urban area.
Yushan town in Kunshan city is chosen to give an example of urban fire risk.
In the process of calculation, kernel density estimation methods andEuclidean distance surfaces are created for each component (building
density, distance from hazardous building, distance from water and distancefrom fire station) of the criteria. These four components were used for a
subjective way to determine weights, which are then multiplied with thefactors and added together.
Future work is to validate the presented model using historical firedata with fire risk map. It can check up the utility of this method, for somefeedback correction on the variables. This model can be applied to other
cities, by exchanging the variables and the weights with the actual situations.
The final urban fire risk map would be helpful to site fire fighting resourceand enhance urban safety.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the supports provided by Beijing
Municipal Science & Technology Commission (D08050600380801).
REFERENCES
DU Xia, ZHANG Xin, LIU Ting-quan, and MA Yu-he, 2004. The current
status and applying of city fire risk assessment technology in foreigncountry. Fire Science and Technology. Vol. 23, 137-139. (in Chinese)
YANG Hong-rui, 2003. Urban fire risk assessment using GIS. Journal of
the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force Academy. Vol. 19, 23-24.
(in Chinese)
YIN Haiwei, KONG Fanhua, LI Xiuzhen, 2005. GIS-based forest fire riskzone mapping in Daxing’an Mountains. Chinese Journal of Applied
Ecology. Vol. 16, 833-837. (in Chinese)
XU Dong, DAI Li-min, SHAO Guo-fan, TANG Lei, Wang Hui, 2005.
Forest fire risk zone mapping from satellite images and GIS for Baihe
Forestry Bureau, Jilin, China. Journal of Forestry Research. Vol. 16,
169-174.
Iwan Setiawan, A.R.Mahmud, S.Mansor, A.R.Mohamed Shariff and
A.A.Nuruddin, 2004. GIS-grid-based and multi-criteria analysis for
identifying and mapping peat swamp forest fire hazard in Pahang,
Malaysia. Disaster Prevention and Management. Vol. 13, 379-386.
EMILIO CHUVIECO and JAVIER SALAS, 1996. Mapping the spatial
distribution of forest fire danger using GIS. International Journal of
Geographical Information Systems. Vol. 10, 333-345.
S.Bhaskaran and B.Forster, 2005. Development of a Semantic Fire Hazard
Categorization Model with Geospatial Information Technologies.
International Journal of Geoinformatics. Vol. 1, 11-20.

448

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in AsiaAPPLICATION OF FUZZYCOMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENTMETHOD TO EVALUATE FULL-SCALE
EMERGENCY EXERCISE PLAN
LIGANG DU 1,2, SHIFEI SHEN 1,2 and TINGXIN QIN 3
Center for Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
2
Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
3
China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing, China
1

ABSTRACT
Conducting emergency exercises can improve emergency response
capabilities. Emergency exercise plan plays an important role in the wholeprocess of exercises. This paper introduces the basic concept of emergency
exercise and presents an index system and a fuzzy comprehensive
assessment method to evaluate the full-scale emergency exercise plan.
Compared with traditional subjective judge to the emergency exercise plan,
this method enhances the validity and efficiency of assessment result. An
example of fire emergency exercise is also evaluated by the method in which
the usefulness is validated.
Keywords: Emergency Exercise; Exercise Plan; Index System; Fuzzy
Comprehensive Assessment
1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, with the rapid development of economy in China, public
safety events have happened more frequently than before. Therefore, it isimportant to construct a strong emergency response system to protect cities
and people away from the damage of public safety events. Conducting
emergency exercises can validate procedures and equipments, and also
improve emergency response capabilities. In fact, both State Emergency
Response Law[1] and State Emergency Plan[2] mandate that all the entities,
including government, organizations and enterprises, should conduct
emergency exercises periodically. The value of conducting disaster
exercises is underscored in virtually all discussions of disaster planning[3].
The emergency exercise plan plays an important role in the wholeprocess of exercises. Through the plan, we can know the purpose,procedures and rules for emergency exercises. If the emergency exercise
plan is poorly designed, the emergency exercise probably tends to fail andwastes a lot of money and time. So it is necessary to evaluate the emergency
exercise plan before putting emergency exercises into realistic practice. This
paper will focus on the evaluation of emergency exercise plan.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

2. EMERGENCY EXERCISES
Full-scale exercises simulate a community-wide disaster by testing multiple
functions at the same time. It also tests the coordination among thesefunctions. The complexity of full-scale exercises requires thorough planningof the scenario. It also requires coordination among the multiple controllers
and evaluators. There is also a need for training the controllers[4].

Figure 1: Basic phases of emergency exercises
Figure 1 shows the five basic phases[5] of an emergency exercise. The
first and second phases are the activities prior to the exercise. Organizers
should prepare the emergency exercise plan during these two phases, which
covers background information, scenarios, responsibilities, resource
management and rules.
In the conduct phase, there are five kinds of personnel—controllers,simulators, participants, assessors and spectators[6]. The basic
responsibilities for different people are shown in Table 1.
Title
Controller
Simulator
Participant
Assessor
Spectator

Table 1: Responsibilities for different people

Responsibilities
Control the progress of the exercise according to the scenarios
Play the role as some relevant agencies or simulate some
accidents like fog and fireResponse to the situation as they are under the real emergency
situation
Collect data from the whole process, evaluate the emergency
exercise and write final report
View the emergency exercise and learn from it (people fromother organizations)

Each kind of people plays an important part in the process of
emergency exercise.

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ICUSReport
Report3131

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plan.
3.3.INDEXINDEXSYSTEMSYSTEMFORFOREVALUATINGEVALUATINGEXERCISE
EXERCISEPLAN
PLAN
As
Asthe
thefull-scale
full-scaleemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan
planisissystematicallysystematicallyorganizedorganizedandanddesigned,designed,ititisisnecessary
necessarytotodevelop
developananindex
indexsystemsystemfor
forevaluating
evaluatingit.it.
3.1
3.1Index
IndexsystemsystemThe
The development
development ofofanan index
indexsystemsystem isis thethe basis
basis forfor evaluating
evaluating
exercise
exerciseplan.
plan.Table
Table2 2shows
showsa asecond
secondlayer
layerindex
indexsystemsystemfor
forevaluating
evaluating
full-scale
full-scaleemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan.
plan.The
Theindex
indexsystemsystemshould
shouldinclude
includefive
fiveimportantimportantaspects--backgroundaspects--backgroundinformation,
information,scenario
scenariodesign,design,responsibilities,
responsibilities,
resource
resourcemanagement
managementand
andrules.
rules.There
Therearearealsoalsothree
threetotofive
fivedetailed
detailedindexes
indexesunder
undereacheachaspect.
aspect.
3.2
3.2Weight
Weightofofindex
index
There
Therearearetotally
totallyfive
fivefirst-layer
first-layerindexes
indexesand
andtwenty-one
twenty-onesecond-layer
second-layer
indexes.
indexes.Each
Eachtitle
titleplays
playsa adifferent
differentpartpartininthe
theemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan,
plan,
which
whichmeans
meansthat
thateacheachindex
indexhashasa adifferent
differentweightweightininthe
theindex
indexsystem.
system.
Since
Sincethere
therearearetootoomany
manyuncertain
uncertainfactors,
factors,ititisisvery
verydifficult
difficulttotocalculate
calculatethethe[7][7]
weightweightprecisely.
precisely.InInthis
thiscase,case,Delphi
Delphimethod
method , ,a asystematic,
systematic,interactive
interactive
methodmethodwhich
whichrelies
reliesonona apanel
panelofofindependent
independentexperts,
experts,cancanbebeused
usedtoto
determine
determinethe
theweight
weightofofeacheachindex
indexeffectively.
effectively.
The
Theprocedure
procedureofofDelphi
Delphimethod
methodisisasasfollows:
follows:(1)(1)AskAskexperts
experts(the(thetotal
totalnumber
numberisisr r) )totoassign
assignweightweighttotoeach
each
index
indexandandthetheresultresultisisWW
,W
,�,W
,W
, i, i��1,1,2,2,
��, r, r
i1 ,i1Wi 2 i,2�
in in

11 r r(2)(2)Calculate
Calculatethe
theaverage
averageweightweightfor
foreacheachindex
indexWW
�WWik ikk k�� �r ri �1i �1k k��1,1,2,2,
��, n, nWWWWik ik��
ik ik
Calculatethe
thedifferentiationdifferentiationofofeach
eachvalue
value� �ik ik��(3)(3)CalculateWWik ik
��, r, r, k, k��1,1,2,2,
��, n, ni i��1,1,2,2,

Application
ApplicationofofFuzzy
FuzzyComprehensive
ComprehensiveAssessment
AssessmentMethod
MethodtotoEvaluate
EvaluateFull-Scale
Full-ScaleEmergency
EmergencyExercise
ExercisePlan
Plan451451

October 2008, Beijing, China(4) Re-evaluate the weight of the index whose differentiation is outof requirement(5) Repeat Steps (1)-(4) until the best weight to each index is gained.
W1 , W2 ,� , Wn , i � 1, 2,� , r
Table 2: Index System for Full-scale Emergency Exercise Plan
No.
1

2

3

4

5

First Layer
Title

Background
Information( U1 )Scenario Design( U 2 )Assignments andResponsibilities( U 3 )Resource
Management( U 4 )Rules( U 5 )

No.
1.1

Second Layer
Sub-title
Background( U11 )1.2

Purpose( U12 )1.3

Scope( U13 )2.1

Master Event List( U 21 )2.2

Procedure( U 22 )2.3

Map( U 23 )3.1

Controller( U 31 )3.2

Simulator( U 32 )3.3

Participant( U 33 )3.4

Assessor( U 34 )3.5

Spectator( U 35 )4.1

Field and House( U 41 )4.2

Facilities( U 42 )4.3

Communication Equipment( U 43 )4.4

Photo & Video Equipment( U 44 )4.5

Finance Support( U 45 )5.1

Site Rules( U 51 )5.2

Safety Rules( U 52 )5.3

Media( U 53 )5.4

Assessment Standard( U 54 )5.5

Contact( U 55 )4. APPLICATION OF FUZZY ASSESSMENT METHOD

Fuzzy mathematical assessment is one of the chief methods to quantify avalue for a subject which can not be adequately counted or measured[8].
Fuzzy comprehensive assessment can describe the uncertainty of theindexes.
U � {U1 ,U 2 ,U 3 ,U 4 ,U 5 }.
(1) Define vectors to represent each index
U i � {U i1 ,U i 2 ,� , U in }Thus, it is easy to describe the indexes.

452

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ICUS
ICUSReport
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WW � �{W
{W
,W
,W
,W
,W
1 ,1W
2 ,2W
3 ,3W
4 ,4W
5 }5 }(2)(2)Give
Givea aweightweighttotoevery
everyfactor
factor U U
accordingaccording
WW
{W
{W
,W
,�
,W
,W
UiUi� �i1 ,i1Wi 2 i,2�
in }in }totoitsitsimportance.
importance.The
Theweight
weighthereby
herebyisisdetermined
determinedbybyDelphi
Delphimethod
methodinin
Sector
Sector3.2.
3.2.The
Thesumsumofofallallthe
theweights
weightsisis1.0.
1.0.
(3)(3)Define
Definethethecommentcommentset
set(constructed(constructedwith
withevaluation
evaluationvectors)
vectors)asas
follows
followsVV� �{V{1V,1V,2V,2V,3V,3V,4V,4V,5V}5 }. .On
Onthe
theassumption
assumptionthat
thatevery
everyemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan
plancancanbebedistinguisheddistinguishedinto
intofive
fivegrades,
grades,thethefinal
finalresult
resultwill
willalso
alsodepend
dependononthethecommentcommentset.
set.
Table
Table3:3:Description
Descriptionofofcommentcommentset
set
Item
Item

Description
Description
Very
Verygood
good

V2V2

Good
Good

V1V1

V3V3
V4V4
V5V5

CommonCommonBad
Bad
Very
VeryBadBad(4)(4) Construct
Construct subordinate
subordinatedegree
degreefunction
functionandand fuzzy
fuzzyrelationshiprelationshipmatrix.
matrix.There
Therearearetwotwokinds
kindsofofmethods
methodstotodetermine
determinesubordinate
subordinatedegree.
degree.
One
Oneisisa asubjective
subjectivemethod
methodandandthetheotherotherisisananobjective
objectivemethod.
method.Subjective
Subjective
methodmethodmeans
meansthatthatsomesomeexperts’
experts’experience
experiencecan
canbebeused
usedtotodetermine
determinethethesubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreebybystatistics.
statistics. Objective
Objective method
methodmeans
meanstoto use
usedatadatacalculation
calculationororset
setsubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreefunctions.
functions.Fuzzy
Fuzzyrelationshiprelationshipmatrix
matrixcancanbebewritten
writtenafter
afterthethesubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreeisisgiven.
given.
�R
�11R11 R12R12 R13R13 R14R14 R15R15� �� R� R RR RR RR RR � �� � 2121 2222 2323 2424 2525� �
T T
RR� �( R(1R,1R, 2R,2R, 3R,3R, 4R,4R, 5R)5 ) � �� R� 31
R31 R32
R32 R33
R33 R34
R34 R35
R35� �
����
R41 R42R42 R43R43 R44R44 R45
R45� �
� R� 41
�� R�� 51
R51 R52
R52 R53R53 R54R54 R55
R55�� ��(5)(5)Calculate
Calculatethe
thefinal
finalResults.
Results.Use
Useproper
properfuzzy
fuzzyarithmeticarithmeticoperators
operators
andandthenthenwewecan
cangetgetthethefinal
finalassessment
assessmentresults,
results,which
whichcancanbebeexpressed
expressedasas
follows.
follows.
R13 R14R14 R15R15� ��R� 11R11 R12R12 R13
� R� R RR RR RR RR � �� � 2121 2222 2323 2424 2525� �� � R31 R32
� R� �(WFF� �WW
R32 R33
R33 R34
R34 R35
R35� �� �( B(1B,1B, 2B,2B, 3B,3B, 4B,4B, 5B)5 )
(W
,W
,W
,W
,W
1 ,1W
2 ,2W
3 ,3W
4 ,4W
5 )5�) � R31
U U� R����
R41 R42R42 R43R43 R44R44 R45
R45� �
� R� 41
�� R�� 51
R51 R52
R52 R53R53 R54R54 R55
R55�� ��Application
ApplicationofofFuzzy
FuzzyComprehensive
ComprehensiveAssessment
AssessmentMethod
MethodtotoEvaluate
EvaluateFull-Scale
Full-ScaleEmergency
EmergencyExercise
ExercisePlan
Plan453453

October 2008, Beijing, China

5. CASE STUDY AND DISCUSSION

The index system and method can be applied to a fire emergency exercise
plan of a supermarket in a mega city. According to the data from experts,
the weight and subordinate degree can be calculated by Delphi method.
Table 4 indicates the weight and subordinate degree.
Ui
U1

U2

U3

U4

U5

Wi
0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

Table 4: Weight and subordinate degree
U ij
Wij
V1
V2
V3

V4

V5

U11

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0

0

U12

0.4

0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

U13

0.4

0.2

0.6

0.1

0.1

0

U 21
U 22
U 23

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.1

0

0.5

0.6

0.4

0

0

0

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.1

0

0

U 31
U 32
U 33
U 34
U 35

0.3

0.7

0.2

0.1

0

0

0.2

0

0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.8

0.2

0

0

0

0.2

0

0

0

0.1

0.9

0.1

0

0

0.2

0.5

0.3

U 41
U 42
U 43
U 44
U 45

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.6

0

0

0.5

0.3

0.2

0

0

0

0.2

0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.3

0

0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.2

0

0

0.1

0.4

0.5

U 51
U 52
U 53
U 54
U 55

0.3

0.7

0.2

0.1

0

0

0.2

0

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.2

0

0

0.1

0

0

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.9

0.1

0

0

0

Use the simple linear model as the fuzzy arithmetic operator. Thus, we
can get the conclusion from calculation.
� 0.1400
� 0.4300
�
F � � 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3� � � 0.3700
�� 0.1700
�� 0.4500

� � 0.3690

454

0.22800.16300.12500.38000.34000.10000.14000.18000.20000.20000.09000.17000.16000.1110�

0.20000.03000.13000.28000.14000.0800�
0 ��
0.3100��
0.2900 �
0.0400��

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS
ICUSReport
Report3131

The
Thefinal
finalresult
resultindicatesindicatesthe
thesubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreeofof“Very“VeryGood”
Good”isis36.90%,
36.90%,which
whichisisthethelargest
largestfrom
fromthethefive
fivesubordinate
subordinatedegrees.
degrees.According
According
totothetheprinciple
principleofoflargest
largestsubordinate
subordinatedegree,degree,thetheassessment
assessmentresult
resultofofthis
this
fire
fireemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan
planofofa asupermarket
supermarketinina amega
megacity
cityisisvery
verygood.
good.
The
Thesubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreeisisalso
alsoshownshownininFigure
Figure2.2.

FigureFigure2:2:Final
FinalAssessment
AssessmentResult
ResultAnother
Anotherway
waytotorepresent
representthe
thefinal
finalresult
resultisistotoassign
assignscore
scoretotoeach
eachcomment
commentvector.
vector.Define
Definethethefullfullscorescoreasas1.0
1.0andand“Very“Verygood”
good”equals
equalstoto1.0,
1.0,“Good”“Good”toto0.8,
0.8,“Common”“Common”toto0.6,
0.6,“Bad”“Bad”toto0.4,
0.4,“Very“VeryBad”
Bad”toto0.2.
0.2.Multiply
Multiplythethesubordinate
subordinatedegree
degreeandandthethescore.
score.Thus,
Thus,thethefinal
finalresult
resultisis
�1.0
�1.0� �
� 0.8
� 0.8
��
�� ��
� �� �� 0.3690
�0.6
� �� �0.7214
0.2280 0.1630
0.1630 0.1250
0.1250 0.1110
0.11100.7214FF
�0.3690 0.2280
� ��0.6
�� ��
� 0.4
� 0.4
��
�� 0.2
�� 0.2�� ��
Although
Althoughthe
thefinal
finalresult
resultisisgood,
good,there
therearearestill
stillsome
someweaknesses
weaknessesininthetheemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan.
plan.The
Thesubordinate
subordinatedegrees
degreesofofV1V1ininthe
thefirst
firstandand
third
thirdrowrowareareonly
only0.14
0.14andand0.17.
0.17.ItItmeans
meansthat
thatthethebackgroundbackgroundinformation
information
andandthetheassignment
assignmentand
andresponsibilities
responsibilitiesneedneedtotobebestrengthened.
strengthened.Before
Beforethetherealrealemergency
emergencyexercise,
exercise,thethetwotwoparts
partsneedneedtotobebere-designed.
re-designed.
6.6.CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

This
Thispaper
paperapplies
appliesfuzzy
fuzzycomprehensive
comprehensiveassessment
assessmentmethod
methodtotoevaluate
evaluatefullfullscale
scaleemergency
emergencyexercise
exerciseplan.
plan.There
Therearearetwotwoimportant
importantparts
partsininthe
theprocessprocessconstruction
constructionofofindex
indexsystemsystemand
andapplication
applicationofofthe
thefuzzy
fuzzymathematicalmathematicalmethod.
method.
The
Theindex
indexsystemsystemisiswellwelldesigned
designedfor
foremergency
emergencyexercise
exercisebut
butonly
only
given
given forfor reference.
reference. ItIt should
should bebe adjusted
adjusted according
according toto thethe practicalpractical

Application
ApplicationofofFuzzy
FuzzyComprehensive
ComprehensiveAssessment
AssessmentMethod
MethodtotoEvaluate
EvaluateFull-Scale
Full-ScaleEmergency
EmergencyExercise
ExercisePlan
Plan455455

October 2008, Beijing, China

requirement. Compared with traditional subjective judge to the emergency
exercise plan, this method enhances the validity and efficiency ofassessment result. In the case study, the usefulness of this method isvalidated. Therefore, this method can be used to evaluate many full-scale
emergency exercise plans and help to enhance the effectiveness of
emergency exercises.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This research is supported by “11th Five-Year Plan” National Scientific andTechnological Supporting Project-“Key Technical Standards Project”(2006BAK04A08)
The background information of the case is provided by the fire
department of Shijiazhuang city.
REFERENCES

Emergency Response Law of People’s Republic of China, 2007
State Emergency Plan for Public Safety Events, 2006
Danny M. Peterson, Ronald W. Perry. The impacts of disaster exercises onparticipants, Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 8, pp.241254, 1999
Michael K. Lindell, Carla S. Prater, Ronald W. Perry. Introduction to
Emergency Management. John Wiley Press, United States, 2007
U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Homeland Security Exercise andEvaluation Program, 2007
Deng Yunfeng. Planning and organization of the emergency exercises forserious accidents. Labor Protection,4 , 2004
Ye Yicheng, Ke Lihua, Huang Deyu. Systematic comprehensive assessment
technology and application. Metallurgy industry press, Beijing, 2006
Shang Hongyan, Wang Xuping, Liu Xiaodong. Application of fuzzyassessment method to emergency response capability in hazardous
materials transportation, Second International Conference on
Innovative Computing, Information and Control, ICICIC 2007, 2008,
p 4428055

456

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in AsiaAPPLICATION OF NSGA II IN
EMERGENCY POINT LAYOUT
OPTIMIZATION OF INDUSTRIAL ZONEDONGXUE LI and MAO LIU
Center for Urban Public Safety Research of Nankai University,
Tianjin,China
Ledon393@163.com

ABSTRACTEmergency point layout optimization of industrial zone is an
important part of industrial area plan, which impacts the overall function ofindustrial area. On the issue of this problem, a multi-objective and multiconstraint mathematical model is put forward taking all factors affecting
into consideration. And the traditional single objective optimization of
emergency point layout optimization is converted to a multi-objective
optimization problem. The problem is solved by NSGA , by filtering out socalled dominated solutions, the choice can be restricted to a small numberof promising solution candidates. Then a series of Pareto-optimal solutions
are produced as a result. The solution sets obtained by NSGA distribute
uniformly and this algorithm has good convergence and robustness, also a
reasonable solution could be offered to the decision maker. Combining withemergency point layout optimization of a certain industrial zone andconsidering the number of emergency point, construction costs and runningtime, this paper validates the algorithm and the result obtained agrees wellwith the actual situation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Emergency point layout optimization includes emergency point location andarea of responsibility attribution. Emergency point of industrial zone canmake first aid as soon as possible when disasters and emergencies occur,
which impacts the overall emergency response function of industrial zone.
Taking all factors affecting into consideration, emergency point layout
optimization is no long a single objective optimization but a multi-objective
optimization problem. Investigations on the location of emergency facilities
have already a rather long tradition. Yi Wei and Ozdamar Linet [1] put
forward a location attribution model for materials distribution andevacuation measures in disaster response activities, they thought the wholeplan included offering materials, evacuation and shifting wounded toemergency point. Lili Yang and Bryan F. Jones et al [2] introduced genetic

457

October 2008, Beijing, China�

algorithms (GA) in fire station location and a good effect had been made.
Karl F. Doerner et al [3] discussed multi-criteria location planning for
public facilities in tsunami-prone coastal areas with NSGA-II [3-6, 8]
algorithm, and coverage region, risk and cost was considered at the sametime.
The main objectives of this paper are to fully consider the various
influencing factors of the given area in the location optimization and toestablish an emergency point layout optimization model which isunderstandable and practical to industrial authorities. The NSGA-II
algorithm yields an approximation to the set of Pareto-efficient solutions. As
other heuristic approaches, it provides an attractive trade-off between thequality of the solution set approximation and the computation time required
to achieve this approximation. The reasons why we decided for NSGAII are
that: (i) NSGAII is currently considered as one of the best-performing
MOCO (multi-objective combinatorial optimization) meta-heuristics; and(ii) our problem structure, where a feasible solution is given by a vector of
integers from a small candidate set, is especially well-suited for a“chromosome” representation of solutions and the application of theclassical genetic operations “mutation” and “crossover”.
This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents a mathematicalmodel for emergency point layout optimization of industrial zone. NSGAII
algorithm is described in section 3. Application of emergency point layout
optimization of certain industrial zone with NSGAII is discussed in section
4. Finally, some results and discussions are given in section 5.

2. MATHEMATIC MODEL FOR EMERGENCY POINT LAYOUT
OPTIMIZATION
The improvement of system safety needs much input, so a problem of how
to achieve emergency point layout optimization is put forward. And thedisposal of this issue influences on if limited emergency supply can be usedfully and if the due emergency response objective of emergency point canrealize. In fact, the process of emergency point layout optimization ofindustrial zone is a collection of decision-making and the implementation ofdecision-making under a series of objective constraints. Emergency point
layout optimization of industrial zone should follow the principle of peopleoriented and taking economical factors into consideration adequately. Firstly
the first aid needs must be satisfied, then emergency time, construction costand service area of emergency points and so on should be taken into account.
According to the fundamentals presented, a multi-objective
optimization mathematical model of emergency point is given. At present,
the model with constraints is described as follows:

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

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
M in �

f 1( x ) , f 2( x ) , � , f m( x ) �

S. t .

� g i( x ) � 0 , i = 1 , 2 ,� p�
� h j ( x ) = 0 , j = 1 , 2 .� q
� ( L)
� x i � x (i U) , � � �i = 1 , 2 , � n� xiAn-variable solution vector x which satisfies all constraints andvariable bounds as mentioned above is called a feasible solution. fk(x)(k=1,2,…,m) is the k optimization objective; gi(x)�0 is inequality constraint
and hj(x)=0 equality constraint; xi(I) � xi � xi(U) denotes the range bound of xi,
x=(x1, x2, …, xn) is the solution vector and xl (l=1, 2, …, n) denotes the lindependent variable.
On the issue of multi-objective optimization, because of thecharacteristic of itself, it is by no means an easy task. There areincompatible conflicts between every two objective functions. For one
objective function, the solution maybe the best one while for others it will
be not good enough. So the optimization of multi-objective is an
optimization in some sense. Contrary to the classical approaches, multiobjective optimization procedures aim at finding a finite, representative setof Pareto-optimal solutions in a problem. In this paper, we introduce
NSGAII algorithm to solve the function optimization problem. To the pointof emergency point layout optimization of industrial zone, the last results
we want to obtain are a series of Pareto-optimal solutions, and thenaccording to the actual circs and experts’ experience the most rational
solution can be made. In addition, if necessary we can endow impact
coefficients to different optimization objectives in data processing [3].
3. NSGA
3.1 NSGA description
As the meta-heuristic approach to solve the described problem, we
have chosen the Elitist Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII), which was developed by Deb (2002) on the basis of Genetic Algorithm(GA). The NSGAII algorithm yields an approximation to the set of Paretoefficient solutions. The solution sets obtained by NSGA Ċ distribute
uniformly and this algorithm has good convergence and robustness, also a
reasonable solution could be offered to the decision maker. As all genetic
algorithms, NSGAII is an iterative, population-based search procedure.
NSGAII computes a series of so-called generations, where each generationconsists of a set of feasible solutions of the optimization problem underconsideration. Because of the multi-objective nature of our problem
formulation, it is not possible to provide the decision maker with a single“optimal” solution. However, by filtering out so-called dominated solutions,the choice can be restricted to a small number of promising solution

Application of NSGA II in Emergency Point Layout Optimization of Industrial Zone459

October 2008, Beijing, China
�candidates. A specific feature of NSGAII is that each generation iscomposed of two sub-populations of equal size, so it avoids the loss of
excellent individuals. The procedure of NSGAII is similar to GA, thedifference is that it has a step of elitist strategy which is the core of thearithmetic, and all this will be discussed in the next section.
3.2 NSGA II procedure
NSGA II procedure for finding a well-distributed and well-converged
set of multiple Pareto-optimal solutions in a multi-objective optimization
problem is described as follows. Like in GA, NSGA II starts with apopulation of Npop random solutions. As shown in Fig 1. Initially, a parent
population P0 is generated by randomly assigning values to the genes of M
chromosomes. For each of the chromosomes formed in this way, the K
objective function values are computed. Then, non-dominated sorting andcrowding distance sorting are applied to the population P0 , and selection,
crossover and mutation are also used in order to create an offspring
population Q0 of size M. Image points of a solution set with non-dominatedfronts and crowding distance is displayed in Fig 2. Therein, for performing
selection, the so-called crowded-comparison operator is applied, which
prefers chromosomes with lower nondomination level; for two
chromosomes with equal nondomination level, the chromosome with higher
crowding distance is preferred. Lastly, the elitist strategy is performed
which includes population combination, non-dominated sorting andcrowding distance sorting. After the steps described above, we select a new
population and the procedure comes to a end. The particular process is
described in the next section.

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ICUS Report 31



Start
Population Initialize
Non-dominated Sorting andCrowding Distance SortingY

Selection
CrossoverY

Population Combination

Mutation

Non-dominated Sorting

Elitist Strategy

Crowding Distance Sorting

New Population

Gen<Genmax

N

Selection

End

Figure 1: NSGA

flow chart

Let us now assume that we have just constructed a generation t
consisting of the two sub-populations Pt and Qt (initially, t=0). The parent
population Pt and the offspring population Qt are then combined to a
population Rt of size 2M. Next, this population has to be reduced to a size of
M. For this purpose, all solutions of Rt are sorted based on nondomination
by fast non-dominated sorting. Once the non-dominated sorting of the set
RN is over, the new population is filled with solutions of different
nondominated fronts, one at a time. The filling starts with the best nondominated front and continues with solutions of the second non-dominatedfront, followed by the third nondominated front, and so on. The fronts areincluded into a new population Pt+1 until for a certain front r, the new
population Pt+1 reaches a size of more than M. The fronts r+1, r+2, etc are
rejected. The solutions of the last front r to be included are sorted using thecrowding distance sorting. Those solutions that have the largest crowding
distance are assigned to the new population until Pt+1 reaches a size of M.
Fig 3 shows a scheme of NSGAII. To the new population Pt+1 obtained inthis way, selection, crossover and mutation are applied again, which gives a
population Qt+1, and the procedure described above is repeated till the

Application of NSGA II in Emergency Point Layout Optimization of Industrial Zone

461

October 2008, Beijing, China
�generations reach the largest one or the solutions satisfy convergenceconditions.

Figure 2: Image points of a solution set with non-dominated fronts andcrowding distanceNon-dominatedCrowding Distance

S ti

S ti
F1
F2

Pt

F3
Qt

Rejected

Pt+1

Rt

Figure 3: NSGAII scheme, according to Deb (2002)

4. OPTIMIZATION INSTANCE ANANLYZING
4.1 Problem description
Emergency point layout optimization of certain industrial zone is
illustrated in this part and NSGAII algorithm is demonstrated in the problem
solving. There are 6 operating areas in the industrial zone and emergency
point can be constructed in any operating area, every point can serve certain
area of the industrial zone. The number of emergency point should be leastand the cost should be less than 25 millions on the condition of satisfying allservicing area. The running time of every emergency point and operatingarea should be less than 5 minutes and the overall running time of
emergency response is the shortest. What’s more, there must be at least one

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emergency point in operating area 1, 2, 3 and the same to area 4, 5, 6. The
serving area of every emergency point should not be more than 3. The
running time of every two operating areas is illustrated in table 1 and theconstructing cost of every emergency point in corresponding area isdisplayed in table 2. Now constitute a best emergency point layout
optimization scheme according to these objectives and constraints [9].
Table 1: Run time of every two operating areas�Minutes�
Operating Area(OA)
OA 1
OA 2
OA 3
OA 4
OA 5
OA 6

0A 1
0
4
4
10
9
7

OA 2
4
0
8
11
5
3

OA 3
4
8
0
4
5
7

OA 4
10
11
4
0
5
8

OA 5
9
5
5
5
0
5

OA 6
7
3
7
8
5
0

Table 2: Emergency material storage cost of every operating area
Operating Area(OA)

0A 1

OA 2

OA 3

OA 4

OA 5

OA 6

Cost˄Million˅

11.5

12

13

13

11.5

11.5

4.2 Problem solving
In term of the mathematic model for optimization problem brought
forward in part 2 and the known conditions in 4.1, a multi-objective
optimization mathematic model is constituted as follows:
xi=0 denotes founding emergency point in industrial zone, or xi=0, xij
gives the running time between operating area i and j. Three objectives
show the least emergency points, the lowest cost and the shortest overallrunning time.
M i n � z1 �� x1 � x 2 � x 3 � x 4 � x 5 � x 6
M i n � z 2 �� 1 1 .5 x1 � 1 2 x 2 � 1 3 x 3 � 1 3 x 4 � 1 1 .5 x 5 � 1 1 .5 x 6
6

6

i�1

j�1

M i n � z 3 �� � x i � x ij
� x1 � x 2 � x 3 � 1
�x � x � x � 1
�5
6
S .t � � � 4
�1 1 .5 x1 � 1 2 x 2 � 1 3 x 3 � 1 3 x 4 � 1 1 .5 x 5 � 1 1 .5 x 6 � 2 5
�� x i � 0 �� r �1�� i = 1 , 2 , � , 6 �

For the model above, we deal with it using NSGAII. The initial
population size is 20 and generation is 100. The crossover and mutation
probability is 0.9 and 0.02 respectively. Each optimization procedure is run
at least five times from different initial populations to build a confidence on

Application of NSGA II in Emergency Point Layout Optimization of Industrial Zone463

October 2008, Beijing, China�the obtained optimized solutions. After computing we obtain a series of
Pareto-optimal solutions see Table 3.
Table 3: Compare of the six emergency points�EP�location layout
Sequence
number1

Pareto-optimal
solution˄1ˈ0ˈ0ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0˅

Num ofEP(z1)
2

Cost ofEP(z2)
23

Total runningtime(z3)182˄0ˈ1ˈ0ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0˅

2

23.5

17

3

˄0ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0ˈ0ˈ1˅

2

24.5

16

4

˄0ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0˅

2

24.5

18

5

˄0ˈ1ˈ1ˈ0ˈ0ˈ0˅

2

25

16

6

˄0ˈ1ˈ0ˈ1ˈ0ˈ0˅

2

25

16

Owing to the particularity of the problem, the number of emergency
point must be integer, so the vector solution is discrete and the number isrestricted to 2. From table 3 and fig. 4 and fig. 5we can see the first threesolutions have predominance over others, but we can’t come to a conclusion
which solution is the best one directly. For example, the first solution gives
the least cost but the longest time while the third solution give the shortest
time but more cost. If you want to have a middle course, you will select thesecond one. The characteristic of solutions selecting is no best but better.
The decision makers should choose the better solution in term of the actual
condition and their experiences.

Figure 4: Three-dimension distribution compare of emergency point layout

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Figure 5: Compare of emergency point layout(Num of emergency points = 2)

5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
We have presented a model for multi-objective optimization of emergency
point taking more correlative factors into account. The model uses classicaloptimization criteria from location analysis and a coverage criterion, but it
encompasses also a time criterion and a cost criterion. We have used
NSGAII as our meta-heuristic multi-objective solution technique. NSGAII
is a new method for multi-objective optimization and also it is effective forproblem solving. The author introduces the method to safety field for safety
layout and emergency response. On the issue of emergency point layout
optimization in this paper, we have obtained a series of Pareto-optimal
solutions. But the solutions are not final outcome for the problem, a lot morecomparing and selecting work should be done. In the course of Paretooptimal solutions searching, a lot of parameters must be given. And for amore appropriate and reasonable solution, more than one running should be
used. After the procedure above, we solve the emergency point optimization
successfully.
Alternative techniques both from the GA field and from other metaheuristic areas should be investigated and compared to the NSGAII
approach. This method may be used for exercises and it enables decision
makers to verify their decision by comparing it with the output of the model.
Also the proposed procedure is capable of solving other kinds of
optimization problems. But the model and method have there deficiencies
born, there is still a lot of experiments and modification work to be done.

Application of NSGA II in Emergency Point Layout Optimization of Industrial Zone465

October 2008, Beijing, China�REFERENCE
Yi Wei, Ozdamar Linet, 2007. A dynamic logistics coordination model for
evacuation and support in disaster response activities[J]. European
Journal of Operational Research, 179 (3), 1177 -1193.
Lili Yang, Bryan F. Jones, Shuang-Hua Yang, 2007. A fuzzy multiobjective programming for optimization of fire station locations
through genetic algorithms[J]. European Journal of Operational
Research 181, 903–915.
Karl F. Doerner, 2008. Walter J. Gutjahr, Pamela C. Nolz[J]. Multi-criteria
location planning for public facilities in tsunami-prone coastal areas,
Springer.
Kalyanmoy Deb, Amrit Pratap, Sameer Agarwal, et al, 2002. A fast andelitistmulti-objective genetic algorithm:NSGA-II[J]. IEEE
Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 6(2), 182-197.
Pradyumn Kumar Shukla, Kalyanmoy Deb, 2007. On finding multiple
Pareto-optimal solutions using classical and evolutionary generating
methods[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 181, 1630–
1652.
Kalyanmoy Deb, Kishalay Mitra, Rinku Dewric, 2004. Saptarshi
Majumdard[J]. Towards a better understanding of the epoxypolymerization
processusing
multi-objective
evolutionary
computation[J]. Chemical Engineering Science 59, 4261 – 4277.
Feng Shigang, Ai Qian, 2007. Application of fast and elitist non-dominatedsorting generic algorithm in multi-objective reactive power
optimization[J]. Transactions of China ectrotechnical society 22(12),146-151.
Kalyanmoy Deb, Santosh Tiwari, 2008. Omni-optimizer: A genericevolutionary algorithm for single and multi-objective optimization[J].
European Journal of Operational Research 185, 1062–1087.
Xu Jiuping, Yang Chao, Zhang Min, et al, 2004. Operations
research(Second section)[M]. Beiijing: Science Press.

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NETWORK PUBLIC OPINION CAUSEDBY PUBLIC SAFETY INCIDENTSKUI ZHENG 1and XUEMING SHU 2
1
State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,
University of Science and Technology, Hefei, China
2
Department of Engineering Physics, Centre for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chinazhengkui@mail.ustc.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
When a public safety incident happened, the overflow of the network
public opinion leads to psychological panic of public, enhances theperniciousness of disaster, and influences the status of the society stability
greatly. In this article, it was advanced of early-warning method of public
safety incidents based on network public opinion, and grading warning
strategy was also be given. The data mining technology of information
processing can be used in automatic collection and statistic analysis with
network public opinion during the course of public safety incidents. Topic
Detection and Tracking (TDT) technology can be used in massive network
information retrieval automatically and news topic tracking of public safetyincidents. The application of network public opinion early-warning model isdeveloped on National Public Safety Incidents Emergency Platform ofChina, which provides scientific support for government’s emergency
decision-making and policy-making.
1. INTRODUCTION
With the development of society, public safety is becoming a more andmore important subject all over the world, especially in China. From thestate government to all local governments of China, public safety incidents
are causing wide attention. At the beginning of 2006, Stated Emergency
Preparatory Schemes of China was published, in which public safetyincidents have been divided into four types that is natural disasters,
accidents disasters, public health, and social security. It is quite significant
to study on science and technologies involved in social safety, which has
much relative with the government functions (SHU Xue-ming, 2007).
During the disasters, no matter natural disasters or accidents, people
always have tremendous psychological impact in their minds, especially inthe circumstances of overflow of rumors. Along with the whole process of
disasters, people’s political attitudes will change according to government
managers and related intermediary of the social.
In the modern society, Internet provides us more free virtual space toexpress our attitude. Network public opinion can be obtained from masses
attitude on Internet during the course of public safety incidents. According
to the network public opinion, we can develop an early-warning model of467

October 2008, Beijing, China

public safety incidents to support the government’s emergency decisionmaking and policy-making.
2. PUBLIC OPINION AND NETWORK PUBLIC OPIONION
In the narrow sense, public opinion is people’s political attitudes towards
State Management in certain social space around the happening,development and changes of the intermediary social events (WANG Lai-hua,2005). Broadly speaking, public opinion is the total of most people’s belief,
attitudes, views and emotions, etc. according to the phenomena andproblems in the society.
With the rapid development of Internet on a global scale, it has beenrecognized as the "fourth media" after the newspaper, radio and television,and it has been one of the main carriers of public opinion. Network public
opinion is the public opinion on the Internet. The main source of network
public opinion is News, BBS, Blog, and RSS, etc.
Network public opinion is always global, free, real-time, interactive
and anonymous.
3. DATA COLLECTION OF NETWORK PUBLIC OPIONIONIn June 2007, there was an earthquake in a city in the south-west China.
This earthquake killed two and injured more than 300 people, and affected
180 thousand people. The direct economic losses of the earthquake were 2.5
billion Yuan. Moreover, the Chinese College Entrance Examination was
also hold at that time. So, on the Internet, people discussed warmly about
whether those candidates at the city can join the examination smoothly ornot. When the network public opinion was obtained, governmenttransported large quantities of supplies to the disaster area and adopted aseries of measures to insure those students attending the examination. The
emergency program was accurate and timely because of the network public
opinion.
From the example, we can see that network public opinion plays animportant role in public safety incidents emergency management andpolicy-making. So, according to the network public opinion, an earlywarning method of public safety incidents was advanced by our researchteam.
According to our research, a system structure was given which isshown in figure 1, and the system operation processes is shown in figure 2.

Figure 1: System Structure468

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Figure 2: System Operation Processes
It’s quite difficult to download all the news pages from the news
portal websites (e.g., news.sina.com.cn, news.qq.com, news.sohu.com,
people.com.cn, xinhuanet.com, and so on). However, the form of the news
pages in some news portal websites is stable for us to parser, and all of them
have been downloaded.
Firstly, a tool called “Offline Explore” was used to download the news
pages as shown in figure 3. However, the tool is not so suitable and seems
insufficient faced with such a large site, since its main use is to download
the whole of a small site.

Figure 3: The Interface of Offline Explorer
Then, we found the rules of “news.qq.com”, that is the page:“http://news.qq.com/a/20070101” concludes all the hyperlinks of the news
pages on Jan 1, 2007. So, another download tool called “Flashget” which iswildly used in China was used to download all the news pages at“news.qq.com” in 2007 as shown in figure 4. (“news.qq.com” is established

Network Public Opinion Caused by Public Safety Incidents469

October 2008, Beijing, China

by Tencent, Inc. Founded in November, 1998, Tencent, Inc. has grown into
China's largest and most used Internet service portal. In its nine-year history,
Tencent has been able to maintain steady and fast-paced growth by always
putting its users first.)

Figure 4: The Interface of Flashget
4. CONTENT ANALYSIS OF NETWORK PUBLIC OPIONION
After all the news pages were downloaded, they were needed to betranslated into TXT documents. Another tool called “TextForever” was used
to change HTML into TXT. In the process of changing, the redundant
information such as advertisement and navigation in the news page wasremoved, and only the main body of the news page was remained.
When all the news pages have been collected, we need to make index
for them. An open source tool kit called “Lucene” was used to do the work.
Lucene is not a complete full-text search application, but a text written
by Java indexing engine kits. It can be easily embedded in a variety of
applications to address applications in order to achieve the full text indexing/ search functions. Lucene is a support which can be viewed as full text
indexing database system. Using Lucene to complete a full term for theprocess of fundamental logic includes two processes. One is that the index
of the segmentation text is warehoused; another is that the search results are
given based on search conditions. Lucene full-text search process first index,
which read a number of documents from the command line, storage thedocument by path (path field) and content (body Field) two fields, and index
the full-text content. The index unit is the document object, and eachdocument object contains a number of field objects.

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Once a certain topic was given, the application started to search all thefiles from the index, and counted the matching files every day during theprocess of the topic. Then, a chart with time as X-axis and news count as Yaxis was given to help user to decide how the topic had attracted people.
The following chart is a search example. From the chart, we can see
the amount of network public opinion change from May to August.
Moreover, many peaks in the curve are relative to the effect of government
emergency management measures, which give us much information toearly-warning of network public opinion.

Figure 5: The Chart of Coverage about “Illegal Brick Kiln Affair”
5. EARLY-WARNING MODEL OF NETWORK PUBLIC OPINION
According to the obtained data, a term named “concern-degree” will be used
to describe how people concern about the certain incident.
Assuming that a certain moment t, the system has monitored Nt sites
reported news about the certain topic;
Order Si (i = 1, 2, …, Nt) as the count of news about the certain topic
at No.i website up to the certain moment t;
Order Bj (i = 1, 2, …, Si) as the count of page view to No.j news at
No.i website up to the certain moment t;
Order Cj (i = 1, 2, …, Si) as the count of comment to No.j news at
No.i website up to the certain moment t;
In addition, four thresholds Nm, Sm, Bm, Cm were given to describe
the acceptable maximum of the sites number, the news count, the viewcount, and the comments count.
Then we can give the following formula:� N N t S N t S i B j N t Si C j �
R � max � t , � i , �� , �� �
� N m i �1 Sm i �1 j �1 Bm i �1 j �1 Cm �

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471

October 2008, Beijing, China

When R� 0.2, we believe that the given topic has been almost nocause for concern;
When 0.2<R� 0.5, we believe that the given topic has attracted theattention of the people;
When 0.5<R� 1.0, we believe that the given topic has been cause forconsiderable attention;
When R>1.0, we believe that the given topic has been cause for strong
concern.

6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
We are living in an open society which has developed means ofcommunication, mobility frequent, and increasingly in-depth building of
information. Internet is the supply of advanced culture and an importantmeans of communication, and network public opinion is more closely
related to social stability.
The technological means to deal with the Internet information analysis
are constantly developed. This study selected a special aspect in the rapid
development of network technology process to explore, which designed asystem framework targeted mainly for public safety monitoring, andimplemented frequency statistic and output of public safety sensitive words.
1. The acquisition of public opinion in the network monitoring system
was constructed. The advanced search engine technology was used toachieve a comprehensive network monitoring of public opinion, and data
mining based on modern information processing technology was used tomonitor and track the topic.
2. The comprehensive application time-and-space-crossed was
implemented. The incident link between time and space was analyzed, andthe incident occurred at a picture was informed to forecast the development
trend of events.
3. The “concern-degree” of public opinion was proposed. The
research of calculating method according to people’s concern about public
opinion provided a reliable basis for the early-warning of public opinion.
4. An early-warning model of public opinion was established.
Forecasting the incident development trend and grading early-warning areprovided effective support for the government’s emergency decisionmaking and policy-making.
REFERENCESSHU Xue-ming and ZHENG Kui, 2007. Study on Social Stability Modeland Forecast Method of Social Safety. The 1st International
Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Shanghai, China.
Sept. 25-26.
JIANG Bo, SHU Xue-ming and SHEN Shi-fei, 2007. Study on Criminal
Prediction based on GIS Map of KS City. Joint CIG/ISPRS
Conference on Geomatics for Disaster and Risk Management, Toronto,

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Canada. May 23-25.
WANG Lai-hua and LIU Yi, 2005. Research on Public Opinion andSentiment in China. Journal of Tianjin University (Social Sciences).
7(4), 309.
WANG Lai-hua, 2005. Initially on the Changes of Public Sentiment.
Academic Exchange. 141(12), 155.
http://www.tencent.com.hk/about/about_e.shtml
http://www.chedong.com/tech/lucene.html

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

A NEW KRIGING–BASED FINITEELEMENT METHOD FOR HIGHLY
ACCURATE DYNAMIC ANALYSISKANOK-NUKULCHAI WORSAK 1, WICAKSANA CITRA 2
and THANH TAM BUI 3
1
Professor, School of Engineering and Technology,
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
2
Former Graduate Student, School of Engineering and Technology,
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
3
Research Engineer, School of Engineering and Technology,
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
worsak@ait.ac.th
ABSTRACTThis paper presents dynamic analyses by the finite element methods(FEM) with Kriging shape function (Kriging-based finite element methods).
Previous study has shown that application of Kriging-based FEM shows
remarkable accuracy for static problem (Plengkhom and Kanok-Nukulchai,2005). In this study, the application of Kriging-based FEM is enhanced to
dynamic problems. One dimensional (Timoshenko beam) and two
dimensional (Mindlin plate) dynamic analyses are conducted. Somenumerical examples of free and forced vibration are taken to evaluate theaccuracy of the method. For each analysis, the accuracy of Kriging-based
FEM is compared with the standard FEM. The result shows that Krigingbased FEM shows significant improvement of accuracy compared to thestandard FEM especially for two dimensional problems.
1. INTRODUCTION
One drawback of the standard finite element (FEM) is the general limitationof its shape functions due to their construction over the element structure.
Meshless method is one of the attempts to overcome this drawback, but it
creates another problem. Meshless shape function does not have
Kronecker’s delta property, so that the essential boundary condition has to
be enforced. Based on those two conditions, attempts to investigate amethod that combines the advantage of FEM shape function and meshlessshape function are conducted. Previous studies (Tongsuk and KanokNukulchai, 2004, Plengkhom and Kanok-Nukulchai, 2005) have found agood method which is called Kriging-based FEM. It is called Kriging-based
since Kriging interpolation is used in the formation of FEM shape functions.
Their study has shown that Kriging-based FEM has a very good
performance and could achieve higher accuracy compared to the standard
finite element method for elastostatic problems. More investigation isneeded to evaluate the method for more complex problems. In this study,475

October 2008, Beijing, China

the use of Kriging-based FEM will be enhanced for dynamic analysis. It
includes free vibration and forced vibration of one dimensional Timoshenko
beam and two dimensional Mindlin plate problems.
2. KRIGING INTERPOLATIONIn the context of shape function, Kriging interpolation can be written in thefollowing form:nu hi (x) � � N a ( x) uia

(1)

i

m

n

j

k

N a (x) � � p j ( x ) A aj � � rk ( x ) B ka

(2)

Where pj is vector of polynomial basis, and rk is the vector ofcorrelation function between nodes in the domain of influence. m is thenumber of the polynomial basis term and n is the number of nodes in thedomain of influence. A and B can be written in the following form
A = (PTR-1P)-1PTR-1(3)

B = R-1(I-PA)(4)

Where P is n � m matrix that collects values of polynomial basis
function at given n set of coupling nodes and R is the n � n matrix ofcorrelation functions. Two types of correlation functions will be used in thisstudy; gauss and quartic spline correlation function. Based on the study, it isfound that gauss correlation function is better than quartic spline for one
dimensional problem, but for two dimensional problems, quartic spline isbetter than gauss in term of accuracy. Quartic spline correlation function canbe written as:
�1 � 6d 2 � 8d 3 � 3d 4R(x i , x j ) � �0�

for d � 1for d � 1

(5)

While gauss correlation function can be written as:
R(x i , x j ) � e

where d �

rij
d max

� (�

rij
d max

)2

(6)

� , rij is the distance between two points, � iscorrelation parameter and d max is the maximum distance between two points
in the domain of influence. Plengkhom (2005) has investigated andproposed that the value of � has to be set in between two limits to ensure thestability of the method. The bounds are proposed as follows

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Lower bound:n� N � 1 � 1 � 10i

�10 � m, where m is the order of basis function

(7)

i �1

Upper bound: Det (R) � 1 � 10-k
problem, where k is the dimension of the(8)

The proposed upper and lower bound limits above are themathematical consideration which guarantees the quality of Kriging
interpolation with rational physical meaning. The lower bound will ensure
the consistency property of correlation matrix R since too low � will allows
too much influence of all nodes and decreases the non singularity ofcorrelation matrix R. The upper bound will ensure the kriging
interpolation’s quality.
Layered domain of influence concepts will be used in this study, and it
can be illustrated in the following figure:

One layer

Two layers

Three layers

Figure 1: Layered domain of influence

3. TIMOSHENKO BEAM
In the Galerkin discretized equation of beams, the unknown variables can beinterpolated using Kriging shape function asu ( x) � �� n u n � {�}{u}(9a)n� ( x) � �� n � n � {�}{� }

(9b)

n

The global equations for free vibration of Timoshenko beams can be
defined as:� ��Ku �1 �K� �1 �
��M 1 � 0 � � �u� �0�
� �2 �
(10)���� �� ��� �� 0 �M 2 �� � �� � �0�
� ��K u �2 �K� �2 �
Where:[ K u ]1 � � kGA{� , x }T {� , x } dx ;[ K u ] 2 � � � kGA{�}T {� , x } dx ;[ K � ]1 � � � kGA{� , x }T {�} dx[ K � ] 2 � � kGA{�}T {�} dx � � EI{� , x }T {� , x } dx

�M 1 � � � � A{�}T {�} dx ; and [M ] � � � I{�} {�} dx .
2

T

A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis

477

October 2008, Beijing, China

Moment and shear forces can be expressed as: M � EI
d 2�dM
��I 2 .
dt
dx

Q�

d�
and
dx

4. MINDLIN PLATE

In the Galerkin discretized equation of plates, the unknown variables can beinterpolated using Kriging shape function asu ( x, y ) � � � n u n � {�}{u}(11)� x ( x, y ) � �� n � x n � {� }{� x }(12)

� y ( x, y ) � � � n � y n � {� }{� y }

(13)

n

n

n

The global equations for free vibration of Mindlin plate can be definedas:� � [ K u ]1��� �[ K u ] 2� �[ K ]�� u 3[ K � ]1
[ K � ]2
[ K � ]3xxx

[ K � ]1 ���M 1 ��2�[K� ]2 � � � � 0
�� 0[ K � ] 3 ��

0
�M 2 �yy0y0 � � � u � �0 ��� �
0 �� � �� x � � ��0 ��
�M 3 ��� �� ��� y �� ��0 ��(14)

Where:[ K u ]1 � � Ds �{� , x }T {� , x } � {� , y }T {� , y }�dA

[ K � ]1 � � � Ds {� , y }T {� } dA

[ K � ]1 � � � Ds {� , x } {�} dA[ M 1 ] � � � h {�}T {�} dA[ K u ]2 � � � Ds {�}T {� , x }dA[M 2 ] � � �

y

T

x

h3
{� } T {� } dA
12

1 ��
�
�
[ K � ] 2 � � D b �{� , x } T {� , x } �{� , y }T {� , y }� dA � � D s {� }T {� } dA
2
�
�
1��
�
�
[ K � ] 2 � � D b �� {� , x } T {� , y } �{� , y } T { � , x } � dA
2
�
�
x

y

[ K u ]3 � � � Ds {� }T {� , y }dA[M 3 ] � � �h3{� }T {� } dA
12

1 ��
�
�
[ K � ] 3 � � D b �� {� , y } T {� , x } �{� , x } T {� , y }� dA ; and
2
�
�
1 ��
�
�
[ K � ] 3 � � D b �{� , y }T {� , y } �{� , x }T {� , x }� dA � � D s {� }T {� } dA
2
�
�
x

y

Moment and shear forces can be expressed as:

d� y �� d�
�M x � � Db �� x � �
dy ��
� dx

Qx �

� d� yd� x �
�M y � � D b ��
��
dy
dx ��
�

Qy �

M xy � � D b

478

dM xy
dM x
d 2� x
1
�
�
� h3
dx
dy
12
dt 2
dM
dy

y

�

dM
dx

xy

d �y
1
� h3
12
dt 2
2

�

; and

1 � � � d� x d� y ����2 �� dydx ��New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

5. FREE VIBRATION NUMERICAL RESULTS

In this section free vibration analysis of Timoshenko beam and Mindlin
plate are conducted. The results are compared among various layered
domain of influence and basis function. The comparison of the result withanalytical solution (Blevins, 1986) and the percentage error can be seen intable 1 and 2.
Table 1: Non-dimensionalized frequencies of simply supported Timoshenko
beam.
Mode

Analyticalsolution

FiniteElement
Quadratic

Kriging

Quadratic
Cubic
2 layers
3 layers
3 layers
1
3.14159
3.14160
3.14155
3.14162
3.14161(0.00035)(0.00127)(0.00072)(0.00056)
2
6.28319
6.28319
6.28301
6.283146.28316(0.00014)(0.00279)(0.00068)(0.00048)
3
9.424789.424909.42426
9.424619.42463(0.00133)(0.00548)(0.00182)(0.00160)
4
12.56637
12.56703
12.56535
12.56589
12.56594(0.00521)(0.00811)(0.00383)(0.00339)
515.70796
15.71013
15.70650
15.70687
15.70698(0.01380)(0.00932)(0.0069)(00625)
618.84956
18.85515
18.84816
18.84734
18.84757(0.02967)(0.00743)(0.01177)(0.01053)
7
21.99115
22.00344
21.99099
21.98707
21.98748(0.05589)(0.00700)(0.01856)(0.01668)
8
25.13274
25.15684
25.13615
25.12592
25.12653(0.09590)(0.01356)(0.02716)(0.02470)928.27433
28.31774
28.28503
28.26350
28.26454(0.15351)(0.03784)(0.03832)(0.03463)
1031.41593
31.48907
31.4395031.39971
31.40136(0.23283)(0.07504)(0.05163)(0.04638)
Note: Number in parenthesis shown percentage error compared with analytical solution.

Table 2: Non-dimensionalized frequencies of simply supported Mindlin
plate.
Mode

Analyticalsolution119.73921

249.34802349.34802478.95684

5

98.69604

6

98.69604

7

128.30486

FiniteElement
Quadratic
20.04758(1.5622)50.13142(1.5885)51.49832(4.3574)
83.68565(5.9891)
102.84713(4.2059)103.35773(4.7233)
134.68374(4.9717)

Kriging

Quadratic
2 layers
3 layers
19.73299
19.69406(0.0315)(0.2287)49.40224
49.27656(0.1099)(0.1448)49.47867
49.31202(0.2467)(0.0730)
79.16984
78.67757(0.2698)(0.3537)
99.14665
98.75784(0.4566)(0.0626)
99.30485
98.91075(0.6168)(0.2175)
128.74122
127.78995(0.3401)(0.4013)A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis

Cubic
3 layers
19.69632(0.2173)
49.25566(0.1872)
49.25627(0.1859)78.73953(0.2752)
98.58097(0.1166)
98.60412(0.0931)127.94091(0.2837)479

October 2008, Beijing, China

Mode

Analyticalsolution

FiniteElement
Quadratic

Kriging

Quadratic
Cubic
2 layers
3 layers
3 layers
8
128.30486
134.85498
129.21011
128.04041
127.96972(5.1051)(0.7055)(0.2061)(0.2612)9167.78327
177.39898
169.37883
168.32892
167.95488(5.7310)(0.9510)(0.3253)(0.1023)10
167.78327
178.63902
169.81481
168.92496
168.08670(6.4701)(1.2108)(0.6805)(0.1808)
Note: Number in parenthesis shown percentage error compared with analytical solution.

Table 1 showed that while for one dimensional problem, the Krigingbased FEM with 2 and 3 layers perform better than standard FEM. For two
dimensional problems, the Kriging-based FEM performs much better than
the standard FEM.
6. FORCED VIBRATION NUMERICAL RESULTS
6.1 Timoshenko beam

Forced vibration of a simply supported Timoshenko beams subjected
to moving load is tested here. The condition of loading and parameter ofloading are as follows: E = 2 109 kg/m2; h/L = 1/100; L = 10 m; b = 1 m; M
= 240 kg/m; no damping; load P = 100 N moving loads with v = 10 m/s.
The results of the numerical analysis are compared with the analyticalsolution. The analytical solution to this problem is taken from (Chopra,
2001). The result shows a very accurate result compared to the analyticalsolution as shown in figure 2. In order to determine the accuracy, the error
norm of displacement, moment and shear are calculated at peak forcomparison. Error norm can be defined as the integration of error over thewhole domain, so that it represents the average error over the whole domain.
For thin beams, in order to eliminate the effect of shear locking, reduced
integration is implemented in the analysis. The analysis for linear finite
element and linear Kriging-based FEM with one layer shows exactly thesame result, and it is of interest to be shown in the comparison. Table 3
shows comparison of quadratic FEM and Kriging-based FEM withquadratic and cubic basis function.
Table 3: Percentage error norm of displacement, moment, and shear (%) at
t = 1.105 s
FEM
Quadratic

Displacement
MomentShear

480

0.08600
0.80980
5.33040

Quadratic
2 layers
0.079500.71930
5.10930

KrigingCubic
3 layers
0.08630
0.64140
4.17830

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Displacement at t=1.105 sec

Moment at t=1.105 sec

0.0E+00
2

4

D isp lac e m e n t (m )-4.0E-03

68

4.0E+0210

3.5E+02

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG CBC 3-6.0E-03-8.0E-03-1.0E-02-1.2E-02

Displacem ent (m )-2.0E-03 0-1.4E-02-1.6E-02-1.8E-02

3.0E+02
2.5E+02
2.0E+02

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG CBC 3

1.5E+02
1.0E+02
5.0E+01
0.0E+00-2.0E-02-5.0E+01 0

Beam Length (m)

2

4

6

8

10

Beam Length (m)Shear at t=1.105 sec

Displacement (m)150
Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG CBC 3

100
50
0
0

2

4

6

8

10

-50
-100

Beam Length (m)Figure 2: Displacement, Moment, and Shear at t = 1.05 sec.
Figure 2 and table 3 above shows that Kriging-based FEM is better
than standard FEM especially in term of moment and shear distribution.
6.2 Mindlin plate

The first example problem that will be discussed is the forced
vibration analysis of simply supported Mindin plate subjected to point loadat the center of the plate. The loading function and other parameter are
defined as follows: E = 2 109 kg/m2; h = 0.1 m; Lx=Ly= 10 m; h/L = 1/100(thin plate); M = 240 kg/m2; no damping; analysis with rectangular element;
the loading function triangular pulse force can be seen in figure 3.
P (N)
1000

0.5

t (sec)Figure 3: Loading Function
The results of the numerical analysis are compared with the analyticalsolution (Hinton, 1988). The result of the analysis can be seen in thefollowing figures

A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis

481

October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 4: Percentage error norm of displacement, moment, and shear at
t = 1.55 sec. (%)
FEM
Quadratic

3.012517.2050
17.2050
8.823645.4880
45.4880
Displacement

3.5
3.0% e rro r% err or

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Shear ForceMoment
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Mx
My
Mxy

FEM Qdr Krg Qdr 2 Krg Qdr 3 Krg Cbc 3 Krg Cbc 4

FEM Qdr Krg Qdr 2 Krg Qdr 3 Krg Cbc Krg Cbc
3
4

Analysis Type

Analysis Type% e rro r

U
Mx
My
Mxy
Qx
Qy

Kriging (25x25 nodes)
Quadratic
Cubic
2 layers
3 layers
3 layers
4 layers
1.5271
0.5386
0.4646
0.51129.06273.40902.45732.78939.06273.40902.45732.7893
6.24782.33233.05383.073923.0620
17.4470
10.0830
10.641023.0620
17.4470
10.0830
10.6410

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Qx
Qy

FEM
Qdr

Krg Qdr Krg Qdr Krg Cbc Krg Cbc
2
3
3
4
Analysis Type

Figure 4: Percentage error norm of displacement, moment, and shear at
t = 1.55 sec.
Table 4 and figures 4 and 5 shown that Kriging-based FEM is moreaccurate than the standard FEM. Analysis with cubic basis function withthree layers of domain of influence is the most accurate one.
The second example problem will discuss about attempts to eliminate
shear locking in Kriging-based FEM for Mindlin plate problems. Two
methods that will be implemented is the reduced integration method andhybrid plate formulations based on assume strain method (Kwon, 2000).
Reduced integration is a well known method which can be simply
implemented by using one gauss integration point to integrate the shear
stiffness term. Assume strain methods, assumed the variation of the bending
and shears strain (usually using polynomial term) within the element. The
stiffness matrix for the hybrid plate formulation can be expressed asfollows:

482

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Displacement at t = 1.55 sec

Moment X at t = 1.55 sec

0.000

20.000

0

2

4

6

8

10

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG QDR 3
KRG CBC 3-0.002-0.003-0.0040.000

Moment ( Nm)

Dispalcement (m)-0.001-0.005-20.000 0

2

6

8

10

8

10

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG QDR 3
KRG CBC 3-60.000-80.000-100.000-120.000-0.006-140.000-0.007-160.000

Plate width (m)Plate width (m)Moment Y at t = 1.55 sec

Shear X at t = 1.55 sec

20.000150.000

0.000-20.000 0

2

4

6

8

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG QDR 3
KRG CBC 3-40.000-60.000-80.000

Analytical
FEM QDRKRG QDR 2
KRG QDR 3
KRG CBC 3

100.000

10
Shear (N)Moment (Nm)4-40.000

50.0000.000-50.000-100.000-120.000

0

2

4

6

-100.000-140.000-160.000-150.000

Plate width (m)Plate width (m)Figure 5: Displacement, moment and shear at middle section at t=1.55 sec

�K � � �H � �G � �H � � �H � �G � �H �
T

�T

b

T

b

b

s

�G � � � �B � �D ��B � d�
b

b

b

s

�G � � � �B � �D ��B � d�T

Where:

(15)

�T

s

T

b

s

�

s

s

s

�

�H � � � �B � �D � L �� � d��H � � � �B � �D � L �� � d���0�
Lb �� � � �0
�
�
�0
�

�
0 �
�
�� �
�y �
�� �
�
�x �

� ��
�
Ls �� � � � �x
��
�
� �y

�1 0 0 x 0 0 y 0 0 �
�Bb � � ��0 1 0 0 x 0 0 y 0 ��
��0 0 1 0 0 x 0 0 y ���B � � ��

T

b

b

b

T

b

s

�

��
�x
0
��
�y

s

s

s

�

s

�
���
�
���
�

1 0�
�
�0 1 �

The second example problem is a simply supported rectangular
Mindlin plate with point load at center of plate. The loading function andother parameter are defined as follows: E = 2 109 kg/m2; h = 0.001 m; Lx =Ly = 10 m; h/L = 1/10000 (thin plate); no damping; analysis withrectangular element; the loading function sine pulse force can be seen in
figure 6.
P (N)

0.1

50

t (sec)Figure 6: Loading Function

A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis

483

October 2008, Beijing, China

The results of the numerical analysis are compared with the analyticalsolution (Hinton, 1988). The results shows that without reduced integration
or assume strain method, Mindlin plate exhibit shear locking, but bothmethods can eliminate shear locking for Mindlin plate for rectangularelement. The center displacement time history is plotted in figure 7.
Figure 7 shows that the analysis without reduced integration vibrates withdifferent frequency (stiffer) compared to the analytical solution (these showsthat it exhibit shear locking), while the analysis with reduced integration andassume strain are close to the analytical solution.
Center Displacement
1.00E+00

Exact
Linear (F)Linear (R)Linear (A)Quadratic (F)Quadratic (R)Quadratic (A)Cubic (F)Cubic (R)
Cubic (A)8.00E-01

Displacement (m)6.00E-01
4.00E-01
2.00E-01
0.00E+00-2.00E-01

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

-4.00E-01-6.00E-01-8.00E-01-1.00E+00
Time (sec)Figure 7: Displacement time histories.

Note: F = Full integration; R = Reduced integration; A = Assume strain

From figure 7, it is quite difficult to determine the most accurate
method, since the result is very close to each other. In order to determine themost accurate method, the displacement, moment and shear error norm arecalculated at a time step (in this case it is chosen to be at peak center
displacement at t = 54 sec). The errors are plotted in figure 8.
Figure 8 shows that reduced integration and assume strain method aresimilar when used with linear basis function. But when higher basis function
is implemented, assume strain is more accurate than reduced integration. It
can be seen also that reduced integration and assume strain method is only
accurate for low basis function, for higher basis function, it became lessaccurate.
MomentShear Force
50

1.5

3

40

Quadratic

Analysis type

Cubic

LinearQuadratic

Analysis Type

Cubic

10

LinearQuadratic

assum es tra in0
re d u c e dassum es tra inre d u c e dassum es tra inre d u c e dassum es tra inassu m es tra inre d u c e dassu m es tra inre d u c e dassu m es tra inre d u c e dLinearre d u c e d

0

0.0

Qx
Qy
assum es tra in1

30
20

re d u c e dMxMyassum es tra in

0.5

2

re d u c e d

1.0% e rr o r

4% e r ro r

% e rro r

Displacement
2.0

Cubic

Analysis typeFigure 8: Error norm of displacement, moment and shear at t = 5.4 sec.

484

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

7. CONCLUSIONSThe use of Kriging-based FEM for dynamic analysis of beam and plate has
been presented in the above result. The characteristic and the performanceof the methods can be summarized as follows:
Displacement at t = 54 sec

Moment X at t = 54 sec
0.002

0.100

0.000

2

4

6

8

10

Analytical
LinearQuadratic
Cubic-0.200-0.300-0.400-0.500-0.002 0

Moment (Nm)Dispalcement (m)0.000-0.100 0-0.600-0.010-0.016-0.01810

810Plate width (m)Moment Y at t = 54 sec

Shear X at t = 54 sec

0.000

0.015

-0.006-0.008-0.0104

6Analytical
LinearQuadratic
Cubic-0.01210

Analytical
LinearQuadratic
Cubic

0.010
0.005
0.000
-0.005-0.01402

4

6-0.010-0.016-0.018

8

Shear (N)2-0.004

Moment (Nm)8-0.012-0.014

Plate width (m)6Analytical
LinearQuadratic
Cubic-0.008-0.800-0.002 0

4-0.006-0.700-0.9002-0.004

Plate width (m)-0.015

Plate width (m)Figure 9: Displacement, moment and shear at middle section at t = 5.4 sec.
(assume strain method)
1. For dynamic analysis that discussed above, Kriging-based FEM is moreaccurate than the standard FEM especially for two dimensional (Mindlin
plate) problems. The accuracy of Kriging-based FEM can be improvedby adopting high basis function and using one additional layer ofdomain of influence more than the minimum required. From the caseanalyzed above, it can be seen that cubic basis function with three layerof domain of influence can achieve the most accurate result.
2. High basis function can help reduce the effect of shear locking, but it
can not completely eliminate shear locking. Reduced integration andassume strain method can completely eliminate shear locking for
Mindlin plate with rectangular element, but both method is only accurate
to be used with low basis function (linear and quadratic).
REFERENCES

Tongsuk, P., and Kanok-Nukulchai, W., 2004, On the ParametricRefinement of Moving Kriging Interpolation for Element Free
Galerkin Method, Computational Mechanics
Tongsuk, P., and Kanok-Nukulchai, W., 2004, Further Investigation of
Element Free Galerkin Method Using Moving Kriging Interpolation,
International Journal of Computational Methods, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp.
345-366

A New Kriging–based Finite Element Method for Highly Accurate Dynamic Analysis

485

October 2008, Beijing, China

Plengkhom, K. and Kanok-Nukulchai, W., 2005, An Enhancement of Finite
Element Method with Moving Kriging Shape Functions, International
Journal of Computational Methods, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 451-475
Blevins, Robert D., 1986, Formulas for Natural Frequency and Mode Shape,
Robert E Krieger Publishing Company, Malabar, Florida
Chopra, Anil K., 2001, Dynamics of Structures Theory and Application to
Earthquake Engineering, second edition, Prentice-Hall
Hinton, Ernest, 1988, Numerical Methods and Software for Dynamic
Analysis of Plates and Shells, first edition, Pineridge Press Swansea
U.K.
Kwon, Young W, Bang, Hyochoong, 2000, The Finite Element Method
Using Matlab, second edition, CRC Press LLC

486

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ANALYZING THE DEMOGRAPHIC
DETERMINANTS OF CRIME IN CHINA
JUN YAN, XUEMING SHU and HONGYONG YUAN
Department of Engineering Physics, Center for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084�Peoples Republic of China
j-yan06@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
China is a country with a large population�and population issues
has brought some social problems. China's crime rate was gradually
upward trend in continuous fluctuations. In the paper, it is to analyze therelationships between demographic determinants and crime in China. Time
series data analysis is used, including unemployment rate, urbanization,
total population, and the number of population migration. The study use thevector error correction model (VEC) to find the short-run factors that drive
annual fluctuations and the long-run factors that determine the level ofthese crimes. The order of integration of the data was determined using theAugmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. All the indicators were found to be I(1). This article used the JJ (Johansen-Juselius) procedure to test for
cointegration. The results show the growth of total crime rate is positively
influenced by growth in unemployment, urbanization and total population,and negatively by growth in migration between urban and rural areas inlong-run, the level of significance is different.
Keywords: Crime; Demographic determinants; Cointegration; Vector error
correction model
1. INTRODUCTION
China is a country with a large population. Total population reached 1.31
billion and continued growth with 16 million newborn every year. China has
to face a series of social problems at the same time. The registered urban
unemployment rate is 4.1 percent in rural areas by the end of 2006.
Population migration is another prominent social phenomenon in china.
Population migration has promoted the personal exchanges, so more farmers
got the opportunity to work in cities and towns, and raised the level ofurbanization in Chinese society. Statistical analysis showed the floating
population crime has become a great threat to social order. According tostatistics, the total crime rate increased from 55.65 cases per 100,000
inhabitants in 1978 to 354 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2006, 6.36 times
increase, or an average annual growth of 10 percent above (Figure 1).
Researches on the relationship between crime and demographic
determinants show the changes of demographic factors effect crime trend.
Thirty years ago, Becker (1968), Stigler (1970), Ehrlich (1973), Thaler487

October 2008, Beijing, China(1977), Willis (1983) analyzed the relation of unemployment rate and crime.
Most research showed that it is positive correlation between them. Avio and
Clark (1976) analyzed that a large percentage of criminal acts by the ages of
15-34 years old male, the two are positively correlated. Fajnzylber,
Lederman and Loayza (2002) reported that education level has a negative
impact on crime.
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Figure 1: Total crime rate (1978-2006)
In China, Researchers paid attentions to the effect of socio-economic
variables on crime. HU (2006) uses a linear regression model and thecorrelation analysis methods to discuss the impact of macroeconomic
factors on crime. He pointed out gap between rich and poor, unemployment,
urbanization, increased mobility of the population, the detection rate fell,
which lead to China's fast-growing crime. ZHANG (2005) analyzed thesocial reason of the crime rate growth in the transformation society of china.
Different from previous studies, there are impact of one anotherbetween crime and determinants, and variables in the model are endogenous
variables. So the vector auto regression (VAR) is used for analyzing theimpacts between crime rate and socio-economic and demographic
determinants. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II
presents the data and pretreatment. Section III introduces the method andthe results from the VAR model. Concludes are given in section IV.
2. DATA AND PRETREATMENT
This article uses time series observations to study the demographic
determinants of crime over the period between 1978 and 2006. Chinese
Government is committed to increasing educational investment, and thepeople's quality is improved. The total population is used as the proxy for
population level. The level of urbanization is measured as the percentage of488

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

the population that lives in urban. The level of urbanization is used as thedemographical indicator. Some study show that crime rate is higher in more
urban areas, urbanization led to much people and wealth gathered in a smallarea, then provides an opportunity for crime. Floating population crime
accounts for a large part in total crime. So the number of population
migration is introduced into the dynamic model. Besides indicators
discussed above, model also uses the unemployment rate as the endogenous
variables in the model. Most observations used in the model were obtained
from China statistical yearbook. The number of population migration for
1978-2006 was produced by the author’s calculations, and data from China
statistical yearbook. To reduce the impact of heteroscedasticity, all variables
are expressed in logarithms (Figure 2). Figure 2 show the variables arestrongly trended, the original series is obviously nonstationary.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

LNCRIMERATELNTHELEVELOFURBANIAZTIONLNMIGRATIONLNTOTALPOPULATIONLNUNEMPLOYMENTRATE

Figure 2: Recorded crime and demographic indicators (1978–2006)
The order of integration of the data was determined using theAugmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, which confirm all the variables were
found to be I(1) at the 5 percent significance level. The results of the ADF
tests for stationarity are presented (Table 1).
Table 1: ADF test results
Serieslevel
lncrimerate
lnunemploymentratelnenrolmentratelnmigration
lnthelevelofurbaniaztion
first differencesƸlncrimerate

Analyzing the Demographic Determinants of Crime in China

ADF
Statistict-

Equations form

Prob.

-1.153685-0.817093-1.924082-2.759897
1.424932

Intercept
None
Intercept and trend
Intercept
Intercept

0.67900.35300.61450.07700.9984-3.415591

Intercept

0.0193489

October 2008, Beijing, China
ADF
tStatistic-2.771196-7.004600-9.703900-4.545262

SeriesƸlnunemploymentrateƸlnenrolmentrateƸlnmigrationƸlnthelevelofurbaniaztion

Equations form

Prob.

None
Intercept and trend
Intercept
Intercept

0.00750.00000.00000.0013

3. MODEL
3.1 Cointegration
As discussed above, all time series observations used in the model are
nonstationary, and are I (1). The relationship among the variables is possible
spurious. Engle and Granger (1987) pointed out that if a stationary linear
combination of two or more nonstationary series exists, the nonstationary
time series are said to be cointegrated. Cointegrating equation may beinterpreted as a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. In
this article, Johansen method is used to test cointegration among time series.
The level data crime rate and the cointegrating equations have linear trends,
and lag of the first differenced terms is 1, a long-run equilibrium
relationship between demographic determinants and crime is as follows:
lncrimerat e � 20.78lnthelevel ofurbaniaz tion � 7.33lnmigratio n(4.34589)(0.69001)[-4.78294][10.6290]
� 22.4lntotalpop ulatioin � 2.47 lnunemploy mentrate(12.6514)(0.44394)[-1.77099]
� 0.51t � 269.93 � �t(1)[-5.56388](0.27878)[-1.83781]
where � t is a stationary series, stand errors and t-statistics arereported in parenthesis and square brackets respectively. Equation implies
there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among five variables.
Urbanization has a significant positive effect on crime. Its elasticity is equal
to 20.78, which means an increase 1 percent of urbanization will heighten
20.78 percent of crime rate. The effect of population migration on crime has
been the focus of controversy. Population migration and population floating
are two different concepts. Registered permanent residence system is carriedout in China. If the registered permanent residence changes, it is called
population migration, instead, known as population floating. Higher
education, move out for survival and development play an irreplaceable
important role in population migration. The increased number of population
migration reflects the more job and educational opportunities, so population
migration becomes significantly positive for crime. Unemployment is foundto be positive relationship with crime. But the unemployment data used in

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

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model is obtained from national bureau of statistics, which refers to theurban unemployment rate, and is not a true reflection of actual levels, somodel still underestimated the impact of unemployment on crime.
Population has a positive effect, but the impact is weak.
3.2 Vector error correction model

In previous researches based on single equation analysis, crime wasdefined as endogenous variables, and other variables were exogenous. But
criminology theory is not enough to provide a dynamic specification that
identifies all of these relationships. In our model, crime and demographic
indicators are interrelated, and variables may appear on both sides ofequations. The vector auto regression (VAR) is commonly used forforecasting systems of interrelated time series, its mathematicalrepresentation isy t � �1 y t �1 � ... � � p y t � p � � t(2)where yt is a k vector of endogenous variables, �1 ,...�p are matrices ofcoefficients to be estimated, and � t is a vector of innovations. For example,
2th order VAR (p) has model forms:� �11. p �12. p �� yt � p � � �1t �
� yt � � �11.1 �12.1 �� yt �1 � � �11.2 �12.2 �� yt�2 �� � �� �� (3)���� �� � ������ �� � ������ �� � ...� ������ xt � ��21.1 �22.1 �� xt�1 � ��21.2 �22.2 �� xt �2 �
��21. p �22. p �� xt � p � �� 2t �

The variables in our model are I (1), and these series are cointegrated,so the vector error correction (VEC) is to be built. VEC model is restricted
VAR, which cointegration relations is built into model. The cointegration
term, error correction term, correct the deviation from long-run equilibrium
through a series of partial shot-run adjustments. By defining the firstdifferences �yt � yt � yt �1 , equations (2) can be written as the corresponding
VEC model is:�yt � Becmt �1 � A1�yt �1 � ... � Ap �yt � p � ut

(4)

where A1 ,... Ap are matrices of coefficients to be estimated, the firstterm on the right-hand side is the error-correction, can be got fromcointegration equation. B is k vector of associated coefficient, whichmeasure the speed of error correction, should always be negative. By OLS
estimator, VEC model for crime and demographic indicators is obtained.
The crime dynamic model is detailed (Table 2).
Table 2: Dynamic model for crime and demographic indicators

Vector Error Correction Estimates
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2006
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]Analyzing the Demographic Determinants of Crime in China

491

October 2008, Beijing, China
� lncrimerat e � � 0 . 09 ecm � 0.18 �lncrimera te t � 1 � 25 .5 �lntheleve lofurbania ztion t � 1(0.05885)(0.19930)(12.3926)[ � 1.42284][ 0 .93792][2.05863]

� 0.3 �.3�lnm igration t � 1 � 19 .33 �lntotalpo pulation t � 1(0.12840)[ � 2 .46244 ](5)(12.9819)[1 .48885]

� 0 . 59 �unemploym entrate t � 1 � 0.97

R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic(0.38642)(0.51125)[1 .52730][ � 1.90852]

0.397048
0.216163
0.858757
0.207214
2.195027

Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent

8.238096-0.091710.244247
0.062474
0.234049

The model results show the short-run effect between crime anddemographic indicators. The coefficient of error correction term is negative,
which means the long-run mechanism has a restrain impact on short-run
fluctuation, but t-statistics shows it is insignificant. Urbanization issignificantly and positively correlated to crime rate. Urbanization has asignificant positive impact on crime rate in long-run. Urbanization may
lead to the concentration of population density and social wealth in local
region, which heighten crime level. Population migration has a small andsignificantly negative effect for crimes, with a 1 percent point increase in
the number of migration being associated with a 0.3 percent reduction in the
short run and a 7.33 percent decline in the long run. As discuss above,
population migration is due to accept higher education or move out for work
mostly. Government should provide more learning and employment
opportunities, which will play an important effect on reducing crime. The
population growth rate shows a small and insignificant sign both in long-run
and short-run. So it is incorrect to say the population growth brings crimes
directly. Finally, unemployment is negatively correlated to total crime.
Although it is insignificant, it is significant in long-run.
4. CONCLUSION

Quantitative study of crime is rare in China, and most literatures are basedon the regression and correlation analysis. But China is in rapid
development stage, all kinds of social-economic and demographic indicatorsand crime statistics data have shown fluctuation in growth trend. Most
results from correlation analysis show the positive correlation between
crime and other indicators. And the existence of multicollinearity, may
result in wrong conclusions about relationships between independent anddependent variables. In this paper the VEC model is built based on the timeseries data over the period 1978-2006 in China, which focus on the shortrun and long-run affections of demographic variables on total crime rate.
Our crime model includes some indicators, which reflect population
development in Chinese society. The results are shown as follows:

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In China, crime rate has a gradually upward trend in continuous
fluctuations. Crime trends and demographic factors keep the long-run
equilibrium relationship.
China's level of urbanization continue to speed up the pace each year.
The concentration of people and wealth has also provided opportunities forcrime. Population migration provides more work and education
opportunities for people. Crime dynamic equation show the growth of total
crime rate is positively influenced by urbanization, and negatively by
growth in migration between urban and rural areas significantly in long-run
and short-run. And urbanization has a big effect for crimes in magnitude.
Many literatures pointed out that the unemployment rate is adeterminant of crime. Our research also finds growth in unemployment
appears to be positively and significantly correlated with the crime rate inlong-run, but it is insignificant in short-run, and it is small in magnitude.
Weaker effect is possible due to the narrow statistical scope of unemployedpeople.
Although total population has a positive effect on crime rate, it isinsignificant both in long-run and short run. So it cannot simply say that
population growth will lead to increased crime rate.
The negative coefficient of error correction term means the long-run
mechanism has a restrain impact on short-run fluctuation, but t-statistics
show it is insignificant.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to Professor YUAN Hongyong and SHU Xueming for theirsupport. The views expressed in this paper are entirely my own and do not
represent the views and policies of the Chinese government.
REFERENCES

Avio, K.L., Clark, C.S., 1976. Property crime in Canada: an econometricstudy. Canada.
Becker, G., 1968. Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journalof Political Economy, 76, 169–217.
Ehrlich, I., 1973. Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical andempirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 521-565.
Engle, Robert F., and Granger, C. W. J., 1987. Co-integration and Error
Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica,
55, 251–276.
Fajnzylber, P., Lederman, D., and Loayza, N., 2002. What causes violent
crime? European Economic Review, 46, 1323-1357.
Hu Lianhe, Hu Angang, and Xu Shaogang., 2005. A Case Study of the
Impact of the Disparity between the Rich and the Poor upon Criminal
Offences (in chinese). Management World, 2, 34-44
Stigler, G.J., 1970. The optimum enforcement of laws. Journal of Political
Economy, 78, 526-536.
Thaler, R., 1977. An econometric analysis of property crime. Journal of

Analyzing the Demographic Determinants of Crime in China

493

October 2008, Beijing, China

Public Economics, 8, 323-38.
Willis, K.G., 1983, Spatial variations in crime in England and Wales: testingan economic model. Regional Studies, 17, 4, 261-72.
Zhang Xiaohu, 2002. The Discussion and Analysis on the Increase of Crime
Rate during the Transition Era in View of Social Stratification.
Sociological Research, 1, 91-106

494

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

THE COMPARISON AND SELECTION OF
THE RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIESON THE WHOLE PROCESS OFDANGEROUS CHEMICAL ACCIDENTCHAO ZHANG1,2, DONGSHAN CAI1 andYI LIU1,2
1. Department of Engineering Physics Tsinghua University, China
2. Center for Public Safety Research, China
liuyi@tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACTThe dangerous chemical accident, including fire, explosion andleakage invents, should be paid sufficient attention because of its serious
sequence such as human casualty, wealth loss, building damage, waterpollution, traffic disruption, people evacuation and so on. The wholeprocess of dangerous chemical refers more than ten factors, which makes its
risk analysis complicated. Tens of methodologies have been developed toundertake a risk analysis on dangerous chemical, which includes index
estimate methodologies, data analysis methodologies and sequent analysis
methodologies. First, this paper develops a series of factors throughresearching hundreds cases, and then uses three methodologies to analyze
the cases, and compare the results. Last, the conclusion is that, themethodology which refers to the dynamics of accident evolvement andvulnerability analysis is the best for the risk analysis on the whole processof dangerous chemical accident.
1. INTRODUCTION
The dangerous chemical problem and their diversification have increased as
far as the industrial development. Meanwhile, the complication of themodern city makes it possible that the serious damage made by theaccidents. The hazard accident behaves as three models, fire, explosion,
leakage of gas or liquid, all of them maybe lead to human casualty, wealthloss, building damage, water pollution, traffic disruption and people
evacuation. For example, the hazard explosion happened in the Jilin
Chemical Plant resulted in people panic and foreign argument except of theabove consequence.
The whole process of dangerous chemical accident consists of thehappening, development, direct consequence and derived consequenceorderly, and many factors, which should be reduced to four classes as theinherent risk of the hazard, the circumstance condition nearby, the derived
event factor and the emergency action, can impact the final sequent,complicating the risk analysis.
Scores of methods have been developed to analyze the risk ofhazard(Tixier et al., 2002), which deal from three different points of view,495

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaas the index estimation methodology, the case data analysis methodology
and the sequent analysis methodology. Each of them includes several
methods.
This paper develops a risk factor system firstly, through researching
hundreds of cases which happened in China. And then, use one of the threedifferent risk analysis methodologies separately and compare each result to
explore the character and applicability. The conclusion is that, we should
develop a methodology which based on the dynamics of accident
evolvement and vulnerability analysis when we research the risk of thewhole process on dangerous chemical.
2. ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RISK FACTOR SYSTEM
The whole process of the dangerous chemical accident consists of several
parts orderly, such as the happening, development, evolvement, directconsequence and derived consequence, referring to tens of risk factors,
which is summed up for class as inherent risk of the hazard, thecircumstance nearby, the derived event factor and the emergency action.
We should think of every risk factor if we want to obtain an effective risk
analysis result.
The direct reason of the damage made by dangerous chemical accident
is the release of the hazard. The impact factors of the energy amountreleased are the reserves, reactivity, flammability and the toxicity. The last
three factors express the severity of the direct damage for the same quality.
The four factors are induced into the hazard inherent risk.
The circumstance condition nearby includes the population density,
the wealth density, the infrastructure effected (the plant of water, electricity,
oil and gas) and the important protection effected (the place where people
pay more attention to such as school, gymnasium). The population density
and the wealth density impact the human casualty and the wealth loss
directly. The infrastructure and the important protection contribute morethan other things to the social attention.
The dangerous chemical accident may derive the secondary incidents
such as fire, explode, leakage of poison, water pollution and traffic
disruption. Therefore, the secondary event factor includes four factors, suchas hazard neighborhood, water area function, water area scale and traffic
condition.
The risk factor system is established after researching hundreds
accident cases, and the structure is expressed by figure 1.

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Figure 1: The risk factor system
3. THREE CLASSES OF METHODOLOGIES OF RISK ANALYSIS
Scores of methods have been developed to analyze the risk of hazard. They
may be induced into three classes: the index estimation methodology, thecase data analysis methodology and the sequent analysis methodology. Eachof them includes several methods.
3.1 Index estimation methodology
The index estimation methodology obtains the risk result through theestimation of the risk factors. Each factor has a weight value and an
estimation value. The first one expresses the importance of the factor andthe second one express the severity with a given practical case. Both of thetwo kinds of value are quantified by experts with the help of theirexperience. The product of the weight and estimation expresses theseverity of the practical case on the specified risk factor, and the summationof every product expresses the whole risk of the case.
The index estimation methodology is exercisable and easy to study.
The one who know the risk factor system, the weight and the estimation
criterion of the factors can manage the risk analysis work.
Otherwise, this methodology is more objective than the other two
methodologies because of the weight and estimation criterion brought by theexperts’ experience. This one is carried out when we do not need an
accurate risk result.
Some method of the index estimation methodology is enumerated asfollows:
� Checklist (Khan and Abbasi, 1998)
� Hazard and Operability HAZOP(Kennedy and Kirwan, 1998)
The Comparison and Selection of the Risk Analysis Methodologies on the Whole Process of Dangerous
Chemical Accident497

October 2008, Beijing, China���

safety assessment of major flammable, explosive and toxic
hazards(Zongzhi, 1998)
AHP, the Analysis of Hierarchy Process(Saaty, 1994)
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evacuation(Moselhi, 1995)

3.2 Case data analysis methodology
The case data analysis methodology obtains the risk result through themathematical analysis of the practical cases data. All the risk factors arequantified according to the fact. And then the mathematical analysis isperformed to investigate the weight of each fact. The estimation of the risk
factor is given by the practical data too.
This kind of methodology is more objective than the index estimation
methodology as all the data is either the actual one or the calculation result.
But we must pay sufficient vigor to collect the practical cases’ data. Even
if we have obtained the risk analysis result, maybe we did not know themechanism of the whole process and the relationship between each risk
factor and the final result.
Some method of the data analysis methodology is enumerated asfollows:
� Artificial Nerve Network(Ung et al., 2006)
� Genetic Algorithms(Varetto, 1998)
� Time Serial Analysis(Wing et al., 2004)
� Rough Set(Pawlak, 2000)
� Bayes Theory(Zellner, 2007)
� Grey Relationship Analysis(Cheng and Wang, 2004)
3.3 Sequent analysis methodology
The sequent analysis methodology obtains the risk result through thesimulation of the incident development with the help of the physics formulasuch as the leakage, diffusion, fire, explosion and poisoning simulation. We
can obtain the physic parameter such as the temperature, overpressure,thermal radiation and the poison density of gas or liquid density.
The sequent analysis methodology calculate accurate physic
parameter if we have the entire condition parameter s.
Some method of the sequent analysis methodology is enumerated asfollows:
� Leakage simulation
� Diffusion simulation
� Fire simulation
� Explosion simulation
� Poisoning simulation
4. THE APPLICATION CASE OF EVERY METHODOLOGY
Three cases are enumerated as the applied example to illuminate thespecialty of different methodologies.

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4.1 The AHP method of the index estimation methodology(C. Zhang)First, we collect hundreds of hazardous cases and select 34 of them.
Then, the AHP method is used to calculate the total risk.
The criterion system is as Table 1, the weight system is as Table 2,
The accident rank by government and risk rank by this study is as Tbale 3,
and the figure presents the final result.
Table 1: The criterion system of the AHP method.

Level-1

Level-2Inherent risk
(r1)

Level-3
Explosion possibility(r111)

Category (r11)Reserves (r12)

Accident derivation(r2)

Circumjacentcondition(r3)

Emergency rescue(r4)

Water area pollution(r21)
Traffic break (r22)

Economy (r31)

Population (r32)
Medicaltreatment(r41)
Fire fighting team(r42)

Comments
High, Medium,
Low
High, Medium,
Causticity (r112)
Low
High, Medium,
Toxicity (r113)
Low
Large size
Medium size
Small size
Mainstream
BranchBrookletExpressway
HighwayRoad
Shopping centre
Industrial park
Residential area
Village
Shopping centre & Industrial park
Residential area & Schools
Village
High-level, Medium-level, Normal level
High-level, Medium-level, Normal level

Table 2: Weights of criterion system
W1: 0.6205
W 11 : 0.4137
W 111:
0.2356

W 112:
0.0403

W 113:
0.1378W 12:0.2068W 2: 0.0569

W 3: 0.3226

W 4: 0.1813

W 21:
0.0474W 31:
0.0538W 41:
0.0604W 22:
0.0095W 32:
0.2688

Table 3: The accident rank by government and risk rank by this study
Accident rank (by government)
Representative Color (by government)
Risk rank (this study)
Risk value (this study)

I
red
I
�50

II
III
orange yellow
II & III
35~50

IV
blue
IV
�35

The Comparison and Selection of the Risk Analysis Methodologies on the Whole Process of Dangerous
Chemical Accident

499

W 42:
0.1209October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 2: The total risk by the AHP method
4.2 The AHP combines with GRA method of the case data analysis
methodology
The whole process of the hazard accident is complicated, and more theten risk factors should be referred to. Therefore, sixteen factors are selected
to obtain the risk through thirteen cases. The risk factor system ispresented in figure 1 and Table 4 shows the scores (0 to 100) which aretransformed from the actual data as the compare sequence. The main
damage brought by the accident, including human casualty and wealth loss,
is converted into one factor, the damage index as the reference sequence(represented by letter t).
r11
r12
r13
r14
r21
r22
r23
r24
r31
r32
r33
r34
r41
r42
r43
r44
t

1
0
0
100
24
100
100
0
100
100
100
25
75
25
2
25
34
768

2
100
100
0
20
16
3
0
25
0
0
0
25
50
99
75
49
100

3
0
75
25
37
65
6
100
50
0
0
100
25
100
1
25
100
3

4
0
100
50
100
30
10
25
50
0
0
75
100
25
11
25
18
36

5
0
75
50
15
4
1
0
25
0
0
0
100
25
4
100
24
152

6
50
100
50
1
29
9
0
25
50
25
0
25
75
28
50
15
377

7
75
100
75
18
31
3
0
0
0
0
0
75
50
5
50
6
24

8
0
0
100
10
31
6
0
75
0
0
0
50
75
5
75
5
23

9
75
0
75
5
24
55
0
0
75
75
13
25
50
55
50
75
11

10
0
100
75
1
13
1
0
0
25
100
0
100
50
100
75
99
119

11
0
0
75
2
7
2
0
0
50
100
0
75
75
20
75
62
42

12
0
0
100
20
23
11
0
0
25
100
0
100
50
60
75
59
176

13
50
100
100
5
7
3
0
50
100
100
13
50
75
20
75
20
20

We use the method which combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the Grey Relationship Analysis (GRA). First, the GRA is used to
get the grey relationship value between the risk factor and the damage index
directly as the reference of the risk factors’ weight used in AHP. But neither
the AHP nor the revised-AHP can’t calculate the eigenvalue of the compare
matrix and give the weight of the risk factors. We have no choice but to500

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

regard the grey relationship value as the weight. The result is presented by
Figure 3.

Figure 3: The GRA method result
4.3 The gas leakage simulation of the sequent analysis methodology
The dangerous chemical accident behaves in three forms: fire, explodeand leakage. The research about the three incidents is mature and several
software has been developed to simulate these accidents. The ALOHA
serious software of America is one of the outstanding simulation tool. An
appointed leakage case is presented in figure 4(ADMINISTRATION,
2007).

Figure 4: the leakage simulation by ALOHA
5. CONCLUSION
5.1 The selection and comparison of different methodologies
The index
estimation

Advantage
Easy to learn
Easy to apply

Disadvantage
Base on theexperts’ experience
More subjective

Applicability
Do not need Accurate
resultQualitative assessment orrisk rank

The Comparison and Selection of the Risk Analysis Methodologies on the Whole Process of Dangerous
Chemical Accident

501

October 2008, Beijing, China
The caseanalysisdata

The sequent
analysisBase on theactual data
More objective
Mutual techniqueAccurate dose
profileMath knowledge
Loss of cases

Conditional enough cases
Quantitative assessment

Less risk factor
Hard to refersecondary incident

Main object issequent physicalparameterthe

5.2 A new methodology for the whole process of hazard
As a researcher we should explore every part of the whole process andrecognize the principle for each node of the Risk Chain (Figure 5). The Risk
Chain is the frame presenting the main sub-course of the hazard accident
and including almost every important risk factor.
There are two key techniques of this method, the sequent simulationand the vulnerability analysis. The first one is not difficult because of themutual research in existence. To solve the second question we can use
several methods such as the Probit Function, the Toxic Load and so on(HSE,2008).
The dynamics of accident evolvement and vulnerability analysis are
the main technique of the Risk Chain frame. With the help of some othertechniques such as Trigger Condition Analysis and the Risk Classification
Model, it’s possible to get an accurate result of the whole process on
dangerous chemical.
management

emergency

sequent

hazardvalue
vulnerability

simulation

trigger I

accident

dose distribution

classification

estimation

damage

loss

level

trigger
secondary event

Figure 5: The Risk Chain

502

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Moselhi, O., 1995, Pricing Construction Risk - Fuzzy Set Application,
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management-Asce, 121,
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Pawlak, Z., 2000, Rough sets and decision analysis, Infor, 38, 132-144.
Saaty, T. L., 1994, Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory
with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh,
PA, 1–527.
Tixier, J., G. Dusserre, O. Salvi, and D. Gaston, 2002, Review of 62 risk
analysis methodologies of industrial plants, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries, 15, 291-303.
Ung, S. T., V. Williams, S. Bonsall, and J. Wang, 2006, Test case based risk
predictions using artificial neural network, Journal of Safety Research,
37, 245-260.
Varetto, F., 1998, Genetic algorithms applications in the analysis of
insolvency risk, Journal of Banking & Finance, 22, 1421-1439.
Wing, A., A. Daffertshofer, and J. Pressing, 2004, Multiple time scales inserial production of force: A tutorial on power spectral analysis of
motor variability, Human Movement Science, 23, 569-590.
Zellner, A., 2007, Generalizing the standard product rule of probability
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The Comparison and Selection of the Risk Analysis Methodologies on the Whole Process of Dangerous
Chemical Accident503

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REDUCIBILITY OF SEISMIC AND POSTEARTHQUAKE URBAN FIRE HAZARD IN
DENSELY INHABITED DISTRICTS BYSIMULTANEOUS SEISMIC & FIRERESISTIVE REINFORCEMENT OF LOWRISE WOODEN BUILDINGSYUKO KAWAGOE, YUJI HASEMI, M.MURAKAMI,
N.KAWAI, M.YAMADA, N.YASUI,.
T.SAKATA, S.KOBATA, and H.KAMIYA,
Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan,
Yuko.kawagoe@akane.waseda.jp
ABSTRACT
Densely inhabited districts (DIDs) with decrepit wooden buildings
generated during the industrialization and recovery from the War in Japanare considered today as a nest of significant seismic hazard aggravated bysubsequent urban fire. This paper presents an outline of the R & D project
to develop retrofit technology to improve seismic and fire-safety
performance of existing low rise buildings. The project includes (1) tests ofseismic and post-shake fire safety performance of load-bearing walls withproposed reinforcement, (2) feasibility design study of retrofitting existinghouses with the proposed method, and (3) quantification of its effectivenessfor regional safety through urban fire simulations. The seismic and fire tests
were conducted on specimens of wood-frame walls and have revealed
capability of simple reinforcement with conventional products to achievereasonable seismic and fire safety performance. The design studies for
retrofitting existing wooden houses suggest possibility to achieve post-shakefire safety ensuring prevention not only of catching fire from adjacent or
urban fires but of spreading fire to adjacent buildings with increase of cost
not higher than 40% of the single seismic reinforcement. Moreover, thestudy suggests capability of the proposal method not disturbing the life in
the house during the renovation process. The urban fire simulations suggest
the equivalency of the proposed method applied to 30% of whole old houses
with the single seismic reinforcement on 70% of total houses.
1. INTRODUCTION
There is general belief that 80km2 in total of densely inhabited districts(DIDs) with low-rise wooden buildings in Japan faces potential significant
hazard aggravated by urban fire at the event of an earthquake. Most of such
districts were generated through the industrial development and thereconstruction of war-ravaged urban areas, and feature dense inhabitance of
low rise wood based low-rise buildings with weak protection against505

October 2008, Beijing, China

earthquake or fires. After over around half century since their formation, thebuildings are generally decrepit, and hollowing-out of local community insuch districts can be easily seen; significant decrease of young generations
and increase of empty houses are typical such signs. The government
recognizes its resolution as an urgent policy issue.
Improvement of regional safety and livability of DIDs has been long
based on the overall replacement by high-rise fire resistive buildings, butthere is general difficulty for this approach to resolve this problem withinreasonable time span because of the necessity of the agreement of allpresent inhabitants for the redevelopment and the achievement of thefeasibility of the project and so on. On the other hand, numbers of local
authorities have begun support for the retrofit of existing low-rise housingsfor the reduction of life hazard due to earthquake. However, anti-seismic
reinforcement of wooden houses in DIDs without improvement of fire
safety may result in the augmentation of the risk and hazard of postearthquake fires that could cause fatal damage as widely recognized fromthe experiences at the Great Kanto Earthquake (1923) and Fukui Earthquake(1948). The Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995) caused over 200 earthquake
fires but still got rid of significant conflagrations only because of weak wind.
Through experiences with urban earthquakes, it is recognized that fire
spread in DIS becomes more significant if wooden houses without fire
protection survive from total collapse by earthquake.
This paper presents an outline of the R & D project to develop retrofit
technology to improve seismic and fire-safety performance of existing low
rise buildings simultaneously. Since the significance of the risk and hazardof conflagrations in a DID is attributed to the fast collapse of the structuresof wooden houses resulting in generation of fierce flames and fire brands
causing fast ignition on leeward buildings, the project has targeted todevelop retrofit technology to make the load-bearing assemblies maintainthe mechanical fire safety performance after an earthquake. Common low
rise buildings in DIDs are required to have fire protection of external walls
against external fires, but the past earthquake disasters have raised
significant question to the survivability of such protection from earthquake.
Moreover, the risk of conflagration in DIDs is essentially attributed to thesurvivability of loard-bearing assemblies to internal fires is essentiallyquestionable.
The basic idea for the development is to apply fire-rated panel
products not to cause out-plane deformation as seismic reinforcement ofexisting post and beam frames. This could reduce the risk of collapse of thebuilding both at the event of a significant earthquake and at internal orexternal fires. For this purpose, following studies were conducted.
(Assembly level) Shear tests and post-shear fire tests of wall assemblies(Building level) Feasibility study of the application to buildings (Districtlevel)Study of the reducibility of conflagrations by the proposed technology

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The assembly level studies focus development of seismic
reinforcement method that enables to maintain and, if necessary, improve
fire resistance required for urban buildings after earthquake. For thispurpose, along with seismic and post-shake burn tests of load bearing walls,
sustainability of the load bearing walls until the end of a fire was studied toreduce the risk of the collapse of whole structure and spreading fire to
surrounding buildings. The building level studies are essentiallydevelopment of anti-seismic design method of whole building structure to
make it possible to maintain the fire safety performance of assemblies
supporting vertical load and feasibility study from market acceptability
point of view. The district level studies focus the hazard assessment of postearthquake urban fires. Analysis is made to clarify relation between thestrategy and the investment and the post-earthquake fire hazard throughparametric studies by numerical simulations of urban fire spread. The
contents of the project cover wide range of studies, and this report intends toprovide an outline of the research and its outcome.
2. SEISMIC AND POST-EARTHQUAKE FIRE PROTECTIVEPERFORMANCE OF LOAD-BEARING WALLS
Seismic damage to the fire safety performance of building arises generally
from the out-of-plane deformation of walls. Such deformation may also
cause collapse of the whole structure of wooden buildings. In order toprevent out-of-plane deformation of the cover panel due to seismic effect,
gypsum-based panel materials are chosen for the covering. Two designs forexternal walls and five designs for internal walls are chosen as the
specimens. After small scale furnace screening tests, the following tests
were conducted on the retrofit designs, namely 5 internal walls and 2
external walls (Table.1) to examine the seismic and post-earthquake fire
safety performance of the retrofitted wall panel construction.
(1) In-plane shear tests(2) Fire resistance tests on wall specimens after the shear tests(3) Both-sides fire tests of wall assembly with simulated seismic
cracks
The specimens include not only newly developed products but
conventional gypsum-based panels. It is for the interest in developing suchtechnology in the range of the “grass-root technology”, available throughout
the country.
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Photo.3 Horizontal test Photo.4 Loaded fire test Photo.5 Both-sides fire test
Both-sides fire tests were conducted on three designs of internal walls,
anticipating possibility that fire spread in a dwelling will result in making
both sides of internal bearing walls exposed to fire heating. Mechanical fire
protective performance of internal load-bearing walls under both-sides
heating was examined to seek the capability of wooden houses to prevent
collapse and subsequent enormous flaming.
2.1 Test Methods
2.1.1 The horizontal (shear) loading test
Shear tests were conducted to quantify the seismic performance ofvarious design to retrofit load-bearing walls. Two levels of maximum
deformation angles were chosen: 1/60rad corresponding to the maximum
load [Pmax] of bearing wall and 1/30rad corresponding to the ultimate load
[Pu=0.8Pmax]. The wall-fulfilment ratio, ultimate load-bearing capacity andother seismic performance indices were obtained.The distortion angle ofeach specimen was returned to ±0 radian before the loaded fire resistancetest to ensure vertical loading during the fire tests.
2.1.2 The loaded fire resistance test
Furnace temperature was controlled according to the ISO834
Standard Time-Temperature curve. The tests were continued until any clear
sign for either fire penetration or collapse of the specimen came out. As arule, the loading level was determined to 17kN, twice as heavy as theaverage stress of posts on the first story of two story common woodenbuildings. Temperature, axial contraction and deformation of the pillar to
the wall surface were measured. The fire protective performance of thespecimens was assessed according to the maximum temperatures of backsurface (MTB), the maximum axial contraction (MAC) and the maximum
rate of axial contraction (MRAC). 30 minutes tolerance was intended
because there is wide consensus that burning of live fire load in dwelling
would not last over 30 minutes and most of fire regulations for detachedhouses require 30 minutes fire resistance or shorter.

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2.1.3 Both-sides Fire Exposure Tests
Since wall furnaces are not suitable for such tests, a column furnace
and wall specimens with narrower width to match the column furnace size
were used. Because of the general difficulty to give horizontal loading tosuch specimen, the seismic damage was simulated by artificial gaps along
the joints of the protection layer. Heating was continued until any
acceleration of deformation starts on the specimen. The tests were notconducted on the external walls because the external walls are considered
as fire separation, and both-sides heating never occur as long as the wall is
not penetrated.
2.2 Test results
Summary of the test results are shown in Table 1. All the newly
developed external walls and internal walls show reasonable seismic andpost-shear fire protective performance, but it is noteworthy that reinforced
gypsum board, typical conventional product easily found in market,
achieved also comparable performance. The mechanical fire safety
performance for both-sides heating are rather higher than the single-side
heating, it is because of the symmetrical spread of charring of columns at
both-sides heating preventing bending moment in the columns.

MTB
(��

Cellulose fabric Plaster Boad (12.7mm)
Steel sandwich panel wall (35mm)
�back side : Plaster Boad GB-R (12.5mm)
Ceramics Siding Board (24mm)
�back side : Plaster Boad GB-R (12.5mm)

MRAC(mm/min)

Plywood (4mm) �
Plaster Boad GB-R (12.5mm)
Nonwoven grass fabric Plaster Boad
(12.5mm)

MAC(mm)

Load-bearing Plaster Board (12.5mm)

wallfulfillment
ratio

Plaster Boad GB-R (12.5mm)

deformation
angle(rad)outer wallinside of outer wall &partition wall

Table.1 Test result

1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60
1/30
1/60

1.2
2.2
1.5
2.2
3.0
3.6
3.3

12
5
4
2
4
1
12
4
11
13
4
2
36
4

5.5
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.2
4.6
0.5
5.8
3.5
0.4
0.2
19
0.3

228
222
317
277
275
328
158
284
106
112
308
259
246
381

fire- and quake-proof
performance (min)LoadedBoth-sides
fire test
fire test
42.25
41.0
35.25
50.75
41.5
47.00
28.25
26.75
57.00
48.0
36.50
46.00
57.00
56.00
55.50
73.25
55.00

3. FEASIBILITY STUDY OF RETROFITTING WHOLE BUILDING
In order to study the reality of the research ideas from architectural design
point of view, retrofit design was conducted on several actually existing
detached houses which had already been retrofitted for single seismic
reinforcement. Originally most of the wooden buildings in the DIDs at issue
were built until 1970s and generally do not comply with the current seismic
requirements. This report delivers only the results on the building shown in
Figure.1.

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3.1 Targeted Seismic Performance of Wooden Houses
The practical seismic assessment of small wooden buildings in Japanis based on the wall-fulfilment ratio(WFR), which represents the relative
seismic capability divided by the anticipated shear load level. It is believedthat for WFR less than 0.7, the building may collapse under a strong
earthquake, and if it falls in 1.0 – 0.7, the building may still be damaged bystrong earthquake. The retrofitting design tries to achieve WFR 1.0. The
necessary standard strength of the particular building to be studied is then
35.24kN for the first floor and 18.11kN for the second floor.
3.2 Retrofitting Design
Three levels of reinforcement are considered for this feasibility study,(R-A) simple seismic reinforcement to achieve WFR not less than unity, (RB) application of the seismic and fire reinforcement tested in this project toachieve WFR around unity, and (R-C) (R-B)+additional bracing to achieve
the WFR not less than unity. The contents of the reinforcements are
summarized as follows.
R-A� The load-bearing walls on the first floor and all the external walls are
reinforced with diagonal braces (2 power metallic materials), andstructural plywood panels.
R-B�All the external walls are retrofitted with the steel sandwich panels.
The capital and foot of each column is reinforced with metal fittings.
R-C�(R-C) + diagonal braces on the external wall not satisfying the shear
resistance condition.
3.3 Results and discussions
Summary of the test results are shown in Table.2. The R-B has
resulted in WFR not less than 1.0 for both of the X- and Y- directions,leaving WFR of the shorter wall on X-direction being 0.93. R-C, R-B’s
improved version has been found to achieve WFR of all the walls larger
than unity. The cost analysis has resulted in cost of R-B approximately 30%
higher than R-A and little cost difference between R-B and R-C. Use of theceramic siding board, another tested external retrofitting material, may
result in slightly weaker WFR, but will reduce the cost for the easier
handling by small builders and the wider availability in the market.
Moreover, the study suggests capability of the proposal method not
disturbing the life in the house during the renovation process.

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2 story plan

1 story plan

ICUS Report 31: Load Bearing Wall
: Reinforcement (without openings): Reinforcement (with openings): Metallic Reinforcement for Capital & Foot of Column: Reinforcement Brace (45�90): Reinforcement Brace (cross multiply,45�90)

Figure 1: The floor plan and R-C plan
Table.2 result of the earthquake diagnosis
two-story
one-storyX
Y
X
Y
estimate(million yen) strength grade strength grade strength grade strength grade
point
point
point
point
(kN)
(kN)
(kN)
(kN)
Non-Repair
26.48
0.75 35.93
1.01 13.39
0.73 22.92
1.26
R-A
2.17
65.20
1.85 53.16
1.5
21.89
1.2
23.96
1.32
R-B
2.78
32.82
0.93 56.84
1.61 23.25
1.28 62.00
3.42
R-C
2.82
36.49
1.03 59.00
1.67 23.26
1.28 62.01
3.42

4. EFFECTIVENESS OF THE RETROFITTING OF EXISTINGBUILDINGS FOR REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION
Effectiveness of the reinforcement for the reduction of post-earthquake
urban fire hazard is studied through numerical fire spread simulations on an
actual DID in the Greater Tokyo Area with the BRI urban fire simulator.
BRI urban fire simulator is a physics-based model to calculate time ofhouse-to-house fire spread with building conditions such as fire rating,opening conditions and distance and wind direction and velocity as
parameters. Figure.2 is the district for the study, where location and fire
rating of each building had been investigated. The fire ratings are based on
the Building Standard Law; FP (Fire-Proof construction), QFP (Quasi-FireProof construction), FPA (Fire Protective construction with incombustible
cladding), FPB (Mortared Fire Protective construction), NW (Wooden
house without fire protection). FPB was the most common for low rise
detached and collective housings in urban districts from the 1950s to the1970’s. Most of the DIDs in Japan at issue consist of NW and FPB. Wind
direction and velocity were chosen as NE, the most frequent wind direction
and 4.0m/s, 33% higher than the annual average respectively.
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4.1 Post-earthquake fire safety performance of existing buildings

M
et
ro
To My
za �d
i L en
in
St
e
at
io

n

Ed
og
aw
a

yo

�

To
k

: Subject Area
Total number of buildings: 2146
FPB : 1733
FP : 51
QFP : 202
FPA : 68
NW : 92
Building coverage : 42%
Approx. 88% buildings are NW& FPB.

River

As seen in Photo-1, earthquake may reduce the fire safety
performance of buildings through generation of gaps, cracks in the walls.
From the past investigations on the seismic damage to wooden buildings,
we make the following assumptions. Fire Protective Construction has been
generally applied to small buildings with minor seismic consideration; past
investigations suggest significant seismic deformation of such buildings
which should lead to the falling of the claddings at the event of a strong
earthquake. From this consideration, “FPA” and “FPB” are assumed to lose
the fire protection against the external wall after an earthquake.

���� ����

Figure 2: Subject District, distribution and fire rating of buildings
Table 3: Default time to burn down, the openings and roof, external wall (sec)collapse�openings
burn down the roof
burn down the outer wall

FP
1,200
�
�

QFP
1,200
1,800
�

FPA
600
1,200
1,800

FPB
300
600
900

On the other hand large scale burn test and wall assembly fire tests
on wood-based Quasi-Fireproof Construction have shown only minor
reduction of the fire safety performance even after significant shear testing.
From this observation, it is assumed that earthquake does not affect the fire
safety performance of “QFP” and “FP”. The fire spread simulation was first
conducted for the present conditions of the buildings damaged byearthquake (Figure. 3, upper right edge). The simulation suggests that postearthquake fire outbreak in any of the 70% of the blocks will result in the
involvement of over 100 buildings. These blocks with extremely high fire
hazard will be referred to as the high-hazard blocks.
4.2 Levels of Reinforcement
Three levels of reinforcements are considered(Table.4): (R-I) simple
seismic reinforcement, (R-II) seismic and fire protective reinforcement tomaintain the fire protection against external fires and (R-III) reinforcement
to maintain fire protection against external fires and prevent collapse of theload-bearing assemblies at the event of post-earthquake fire. R-I essentially

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does not improve the fire protection performance of external and other walls,
while R-II is to replace the external cladding so that the external wall can
prevent fire penetration due to external fires. R-III will further prevent
collapse of major load bearing walls until the decay of the fire itself. If
these reinforcement is applied to an existing FPB building, it is natural toassume its pre- and post-earthquake fire protective performance as indicatedin Table.4.
Table 4: Fireproof performance of reinforced building
intended structural member
Non-Retrofit
R-I
R-II
R-III

�
whole building structure
outside of outer wall
both sides of outer wall
small building (�100�)All load bearing walls
big buildings (�100�)

Assumed for Rating
pre-earthquake post-earthquake
FPB
NW
FPB
FPB
FPA
FPA
QFP

QFP

4.3 Strategies to reform DIDs with retrofitted buildings
The effectivenss of the proposed technology for urban safety is
studied through fire spread simulations by changing the retrofitted buildings
to all buildings ratio (RBR, 30%, 50% and 70% were chosen). However,there is variety of density of NW and FPB buildings in the studied area, andit was thought that making any priority of the retrofitting to weaker parts of
the area could improve the efficiency of the urban reform. In order toexamine effectiveness of such ideas, following strategies were considered.
1) Random reform(Re-1)
Buildings to be retrofitted are chosen randomly in each block
according to the design RBR level.
2) Reform with priority to high-hazard blocks(Re-2)
The high-hazard blocks are given the first priority to retrofit FPB level
existing buildings. Improvement of other blocks are made only when thereinforcement of the high-hazard blocks does not satisfy the design RBRlevel.
4.4 Results of Urban Fire Simulations and Discussions
In order to assess the effectiveness of the levels of reinforcement andthe urban reform strategies, number of fire-involved buildings in two hours
from fire outbreak is compared (Figure.3). Average number of buildings
involved by fire decrease as the RBR level increased, and generaleffectiveness of R-III reinforcement compared with others is obvious. The
simulations suggest that R-III for RBR=30% achieve a similar reduction ofburnt houses with R-I for RBR=70%. R-III’s achievability of high regionalsafety by retrofitting rather small number of buildings is noteworthy
because retrofitting of existing dwellings generally needs long negotiation
with residents. Interesting thing in Figure.3 is that, for R-III, fire hazard is
not improved by the increase of RBR, whilst increase of RBR for R-I or RReducibility of Seismic and Post-earthquake Urban Fire Hazard in Densely Inhabited Districts by
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October 2008, Beijing, China

II results in the notable reduction of fire hazard. This inconsistency was
unexpected, but the effectiveness of R-III reinforcement higher at random
reform scenario is attributed to the very high capability of R-III inpreventing fire propagation from the retrofitted building. Since urban fire
can hardly “penetrate” R-III reinforced building and burn the next building,
R-III reinforcement becomes more effective in reducing the spread of urban
fire if reinforced buildings are scattered in DID rather than they areconcentrated.
Random reform
R-II
R-III

Reform high-hazard blocks
R-I
R-II
R-III

Retrofitted Buildings Ratio
70%
50%
30%

R-I

Non-maintenance

Legendaverage number offire imvolved
buildings

��: 100 ~��: 50 ~ 100
��: 0 ~ 50

Figure 3: Results of Urban Fire Simulations
5. CONCLUSIONSIn this project, feasibility of the simultaneous seismic and fire resistive
reinforcement of small wooden buildings has been studied and the following
conclusions can be drawn.
(1) Reinforcement of wooden post and beam construction by gypsum
based panel materials is effective to improve seismic performanceand to ensure post-earthquake fire resistive performance.
Reinforced gypsum board, a conventional product widely
available in the market, is found to be effective.
(2) Reinforcement of external walls by the tested products ofsandwich panel and ceramic siding panel are found to achieve
seismic performance enough to support all the seismic shear andsustain the fire resistive performance to prevent fire penetrationand collapse of the building.
(3) The cost analysis has resulted in the cost of the simultaneousseismic and fire-resistive reinforcement approximately 30%
higher than the simple seismic reinforcement.
(4) The urban fire simulations suggest effectiveness to the regionalsafety of the simultaneous seismic and fire protective
reinforcement significantly higher than the simple seismic
reinforcement.
(5) Effectiveness of the simultaneous seismic and fire resistive
reinforcement is more significant when it is applied randomly in

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DID rather than when any priority for its application is considerede.g. for weaker blocks.
REFERENCES
Science Council of Japan, Recommendation to the Government: Need
to Ensure Safety in Giga-cities at the Event of Strong Earthquake, 2005. (inJapanese)
Y.Hasemi, Ed.: Development of Retrofit Technology of Wooden
Urban Buildings for the Simultaneous Improvement of Seismic and Fire
Protective Performances, Construction Technology R & D Fund, MLIT,
2007(in Japanese)
T.Iwami, Y.Ohmiya, Y.Hayashi, T.Naruse, S.Takeya, K.Kagiya,
E.Itoigawa, T.Kato, K.Shida, A.Hokugo, W.Takahashi, Ed: Development of
Evaluation Technologies for Fire Spreading in Urban Area
Report of Building Research Institute, No.145, 2006(in Japanese)
Y.Hasemi, M.Murakami,N.Kawai, M.Yamada, N.Yasui, S.Oshiumi,
Y.Shimizu, S.Kobata, H.Kamiya, T.Sakata, H.Nagamori, Ed: Seismic andPost-earthquake Fire-resistive Performance of Conventional Post & Beam
Wall Retrofitted for The Reduction of Post-earthquake city fire hazard indensely inhabited districts, AIJ Journal of Technology and Design Vol.14
No.27 2008(in Japanese)
Y.Kawagoe, Y.Hasemi, N.Yasui, H.Kamiya, S.Kobata, Ed:
Reducibility of Seismic and Post-earthquake Urban Fire Hazard in Densely
Inhabited Districts by Simultaneous Seismic & Fire-resistive Reinforcementof Low-rise Wooden Buildings, Vol.14, No.28, 2008. (in Japanese)

Reducibility of Seismic and Post-earthquake Urban Fire Hazard in Densely Inhabited Districts by
Simultaneous Seismic & Fire-resistive Reinforcement of Low-rise Wooden Buildings515

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A STUDY FOR PROMOTINGCOMMUNICATION BETWEEN RESEARCHINSTITUTES AND GENERAL SOCIETY
ABE MARIKO1and MEGURO KIMIRO2
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
2
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
abe@risk-mg.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
1

ABSTRACTThe social intelligence sharing and the consensus building areimportant in the field of the safety of the society. Therefore, the laboratories
in this field are requested to send the information that is easily
understandable to the general society, and to respond to the voices from thegeneral society moreover. Recently, various communication media exist
such as face-to-face conversation and website. In this situation, how thelaboratory of disaster mitigation should send and receive the information
to/from the general society?
Every year, the largest institute of one university in Japan holds theOpen House event for the general public to introduce their latest research
and achievements. In this paper, the authors take up the case with one
laboratory of urban disaster mitigation engineering in this event, anddescribe communications between the laboratories and the general society.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the democratic societies, the social intelligence sharing and the consensus
building are important especially in the field of the safety of the society.
Therefore, the laboratories in this kind of field are requested to send theinformation easily understandable to the general society, and to respond tothe voices from the general society moreover. Recently, various
communication media exist such as face-to-face conversation and website.
In this situation, the authors are considering about how the laboratory ofdisaster mitigation should send and receive the information to/from thegeneral society. In this paper, the authors take up the case of the face-to-facecommunication.
Every year, the largest institute of one university in Tokyo, Japan (BInstitute of A-University) holds the Open House event for the general public
to introduce their latest research and achievements. In this paper, the authors
take up the case with the laboratory of urban disaster mitigation engineering(C-Laboratory) in this event, and describe communications between thelaboratories and the general society.

517

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2. THE RESEARCH FIELD
2.1 B-Institute of A-University
A-University, the oldest Japanese university, known for its long
history dating back to 1877, is currently consisted of 10 faculties, 11
institutes, 15 graduate schools, and a number of shared facilities. B-Instituteis the largest among these institutes, and now includes 5 research
departments, 1 guest chair, 2 endowed chairs, 6 research centers, 3
collaborative research centers, 1 outside experiment station, some sharedfacilities, and administrative offices. The faculty members of the B-Institute,in addition to pursuing research in their respective fields, play an active rolein the graduate school by conducting courses, experiments, exercises,
research meetings, and so on, as well as supervising graduate students fortheir master's and doctoral theses in the divisions of Engineering andScience.
2.2 Communication between B-Institute and the General Society
B-Institute not only tries to educate the postgraduate students but also
tries to educate the people of the other positions in the general society suchas the engineers of the private organizations. B-Institute is also
acknowledged for its keen promotion of international scientific interaction
through exchange students and researchers. Moreover, study results havebeen widely introduced to the general society through the courses, theseminars and other opportunities as shown in table 1.
Table 1: Communication between B-Institute and the general society(face to face communications only)

Event
Open House

Frequency
Contents
1/year
Open House event for the general public tointroduce the latest research and achievements(1954-)
Open House event for the general public to
The Outside Experiment 1/year
introduce the latest research and achievements
Station Open House(2003-)
Irregular
The international symposium for researchers
The IIS Symposium(-2007)
2/year
Open course for the general public to introduce the
Evening Seminars
latest research and achievements
Friday seminar for highschools students

20-30/year Open seminar for high schools students(2004-)

B-Institute Academic
Lecture Courses

1-2/yearOpen seminar event for the general public tointroduce the latest research and achievements

Individual open tour forjunior high schools andhigh schools students

Irregular

Individual open tour for junior high schools andhigh schools students

B-Institute Seminar
B-Institute Special
Seminar3/year
5-8/yearSeminar including experiment and practice
Course that brings a series of lecture of basic
knowledge necessary for research and development(1987-)

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Event
SNG (Scientists for the
Next Generation)

Frequency
Contents--Experiences of experiments and classes outside IIS
for elementary schools, junior high schools and highschools based on recent research by teachers, staffs,
and postgraduate's volunteers (1997-)
Tours for junior high school 1/year
Research introduction for Junior high school andand high school students athigh school students at Open House (1997-)
Open HouseClass for junior students
outside IIS

Irregular

UROP (Undergraduate
Research Opportunity
Program)

1/yearThrough lecture and practice, students will learn
that mathematics and science learnt in elementary
schools, junior high schools and high schools are
related to the research and many other things.
Research introduction course for 1st or 2nd gradestudents at the university of Tokyo, where research
program is made by students themselves. Knowhow of research is learnt through experiencing
experiment and fieldwork, etc. (2001-)

In this research, the authors take up the event of Open House with thecase of C-Laboratory of urban disaster mitigation engineering.
2.3 C-Laboratory
C-Laboratory consists of 1 professor, 1 special associate professor, 5researchers, 2 secretaries, 1 worker, and 18 students (2 doctor course
students, 10 master course students and 6 undergraduate) (in August, 2008).
Master course first grade students are in the charge of the laboratory eventsand tasks. The place in the laboratory is located on the south end of the sixth
floor of the main building of B-Institute.
At C-Laboratory, researches on developing strategies to minimize
damages to society by hazards such as earthquakes are conducted by taking
into account both the “hard” and “soft” measures. The biggest lesson fromthe recent earthquakes in Japan, such as the Southern Hyogo Earthquake(1995), is the fact that without “hard” measures, mitigation of human loss
cannot be achieved, and “soft” measures such as the popular “Real-Time
Earthquake Disaster Prevention System” aims at quick restoration andrevival of social functions. With this lesson in mind, many researches aredone in the following themes.
� Investigation�AEM�Masonry� DEM, Retrofitting
� Evacuation, Tsunami Disaster Mitigation System
� Power Supply
� Disaster Management Manual� Social System
2.4 Communication between C-laboratory and the General Society
The activities by C-Laboratory in the field of communication with thegeneral society are as follows. The authors show not only thecommunications outside the laboratory but also the communications inside
the laboratory. Because most of the students in C-laboratory will graduate

A Study for Promoting Communication Between Research Institutes and General Society519

October 2008, Beijing, China

and begin to work in the general society outside C-Laboratory after the 2-3
years, education to those students inside the laboratory is one of the mostimportant communications with the general society.
Activities by entire C-Laboratory:
� The Research exhibitions and demonstrations in Open House� The Disaster Mitigation Summit (the disaster mitigation lectureby the students from the several universities, for the audiencesfrom the general society, held once a year at the university in
Shizuoka, Japan)
� Management of C-laboratory website (members list, introductionof the researches, laboratory events and others)
Activities by the professor:
� Doing research, making theses, and giving presentations at theacademic conferences (There are a lot of researches as the projectthat cooperates with the enterprise, NPO, and the governments.)
� Committee activities related to the disaster mitigations such as thecountry or local governments, cooperative lifeline companies andothers� Disaster mitigation lectures for the students in two universities
� Disaster mitigation lectures for the general persons outside theuniversity
� Writing or Supervision of the books, picture-story shows,cartoons and others
� Interviewee on TV or radio programs, newspapers and others
Activities by the students:
� Doing research, making theses, and giving presentations at theacademic conferences (There are a lot of researches as the projectthat cooperates with the enterprise, NPO, and the governments.)
In this paper, the authors take up the case of the research exhibitions
and the demonstrations in Open House.
3. C-LABORATORY’S ACTIVITIES IN OPEN HOUSEIn this paragraph, the authors show C-Laboratories activities in Open House.
The schedule of Open House is shown in Table 2 and Table 3.
Table 2: The whole schedule (2008)
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24th in April to 22nd May: all students meeting from 10:00-12:00 on every
Thursday (study of the researches of C-Laboratory, practice about the panel
explanations and demonstrations)
May: making of the new panels
Two days before Open House: set up the panels on the walls of the corridor
The day before Open House: set up the panels, desks, chair, spotlights, power
supply codes and others/rehearse of the experiments and the demonstrations
Open House (three days): panel exhibitions and demonstrations
16:00-17:30 on the final day: remove the panels and others
18:00-20:00 on the final day: the closing party
About one week after Open House: Opening the data to the public andkeeping tools and materials
Within several weeks after Open House: Reflection meeting by students,
professor and associate professor

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Table 3: The example of the explanation member's charge schedule (2008)�������������������������
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3.1 The contents of the activities
During Open House, the Students work in their allocated time
between 10:00 to 17:00. During 3 days of Open House, the students spend
much time in the corridor in front of C-Laboratory’s rooms, explaining thepanels or doing demonstrations. 5-6 explanation charge times (about 10
hours in total) are allocated to each student, but students are actuallyworking during their free time, helping others.
3.1.1 The Panel exhibition
The explanation of the research by the students, using the panels on
the walls, is the main activity of C-Laboratory’s Open House. About 100
panels are shown on the walls of the corridor. The size of the panel is
74cm×103.5cm.

Figure�: Introduction by a student

Figure2: A lot of panels on the wall

3.1.2 The demonstration and the touch-panel system
The students do the demonstrations of the liquefaction and the shaking
table, and the explanation of the researches by using the big touch-panel.

A Study for Promoting Communication Between Research Institutes and General Society521

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure3: Demonstration
3.2 Layout
The layout of C-Laboratory exhibition space and explanation member's
standing position is shown in figure 5.

2m2
students
panel zone
touch-panel system zone
demonstration zone
Figure5: Layout of C-Laboratory exhibition and demonstration
3.3 After the exhibition
3.3.1 Opening the data to the public and keeping tools and materials
After Open House, the data of the exhibited research panels are
opened on the Web site in the laboratory. After selecting the panels for the
daily exhibition on the wall of the corridor in front of C-Laboratory, thestudents put the panels into the panel-cases and keep in the storage of CLaboratory. The touch panel system and the experiment kits are also kept at
the fixed position. These works are done within one week after Open House.

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3.3.2 The meeting for reviewing the activities in Open House
Within several weeks after Open House, the meeting for reviewing theactivities in Open House is held. Before the meeting, students gather thedata of the questions and comments by the audiences, and the feedback
comments such as impressions and lessons by the students (since 2007). The
details will be shown in Chapter 4.
4. FEEDBACK ABOUT OPEN HOUSE
The numbers of the questions and comments by the audience in Open House
were about 89 in 2007 and about 77 in 2008. (An accurate number of thequestions and comments could not be counted, if the student got samequestions from two or more audiences, he/she often forgot the number). The
numbers of the feedback comments such as impressions, lessons by thestudents ware about 55 in 2007 and about 99 in 2008(each students
submitted more than 2 comments).
4.1 The questions and comments by the audience
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By comparing the questions and comments between 2007 and2008, the authors found six similar questions. This data shows theeffectiveness of referring the past questions and the comments ofthe past Open House. However, in the several cases in 2008 OpenHouse, some students’ response to that kind of questions were notappropriate. This shows the students’ lack of studying.
New students who have only spent 2 months in C-Laboratory
must deal with the audience as the "specialist of the disastermitigation" in Open House”. Besides the questions about the
research, the students were asked about their principles such as"What is your motivation for doing the research of the disastermitigation?” Such questions have the good effect for the students
to grow as the specialist of the disaster mitigation field.
Many questions and comments were about the additional effects
and the social contribution of the research. These questions andcomments both locate the researches in the society. The former
can be interpreted "Doesn’t the research influence the bad effectto the general society?" and the latter can be interpreted "Is theresearch useful for the general society?" These questions andcomments are very profitable to research. In addition, theaudiences from the government or the enterprise sometimes offer
the joint research or the joint business.
Many audiences asked students to give them some advice about
their worries on the disaster mitigation. To deal with thesequestions, the information of the research exhibition at CLaboratory is not enough. So, the students should introduce theclues to know more detailed information such as the introductionof other laboratories of the suitable research themes for thatquestion.

A Study for Promoting Communication Between Research Institutes and General Society523

October 2008, Beijing, China

�

Some other questions and comments about the meaning of thewords and the method of the experiments were asked.

4.2 Feedback from the students
The feedback comments by the students include succession of theinformation and know-how, the explanation technique, the layout of thepanels and others, the corporation with the other laboratories, and so on.
Many of the new students said that it was good opportunity for them to learn
the current research topics of the C-Laboratory.
5. CONSIDERATIONS
According to the data mentioned in the chapter 4, Open House can be agood opportunity for C-Laboratory as the chance to get feedback from thegeneral society. On the other hand, in the past Open House, the students did
not make full use of the feedback information. This is because the students
didn’t arrange or analyze the data gathered from questions and comments by
the audiences and the feedback comment by the students.
In order to improve this situation, the authors propose the database ofOpen House as making the environment for further communications
between C-Laboratory and the general public in Open House. This database(The Open House Database) is based on the New Style Disaster Manual for
Implementation of efficient Disaster Countermeasures (Kondo, Hamada and
Meguro; 2001).
In Open House, students are expected to have the basic understandingof the whole research topics of C-Laboratory, and the deeper understandingof the topics of the research which they take charge of the explanation.
Especially for the new students, it is necessary to learn these contents in justtwo months from April to May, but they are busy because of the searching
job or the attending the classes, and often cannot gather together. So, thedatabase on the web is effective for each student to prepare for the OpenHouse smoothly. The authors propose the function and use image of thedatabase in figure 6.

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Function of database
Reading and updating of the items
relates to the reader
Total and analysis in fiscal year that
centers on topics of research etc.
Link to information related to research
Mutual reference and opinion exchange
Easy conversion into paper medium

�
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�
�
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Year:20 12 Theme:D emo
Q: What is liqu efa ct ion ?
A:Liq uefac tion is ---.

Q &A
Respo nsible student = Mary

>for more in fo rmatio n ofliquefac tion

No. of questions

43
43
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5
4

2
1
07

08

09

10

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12

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13

50
45
40
35

1 4 301 5

25
20
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10

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33
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3

8

3

3

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1
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Take
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Deen
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Medical andRelief

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Servi ce26

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11
13
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Figure 6: Function and use image of the Open House database
6. CONCLUSIONSThe social intelligence sharing and the consensus building are important in
the field of the safety of the society. Therefore, laboratories in this field arerequested to send the information easily understandable to the generalsociety, and to respond to the voices from the general society moreover. In
this paper, the authors took up the case of the approach and the problems of
the research exhibitions by one laboratory of urban disaster mitigationengineering in Open House of the biggest institute in Japan and describe
communications between the laboratories, institutes and the general society.
According to the data of the questions and comments by the audiences,and the feedback comments such as impressions, lessons by the students,
Open House can be a good opportunity for the laboratory as the chance tocommunicate with the audiences and get feedback from the general society.
On the other hand, in the past Open House, the students did not make fulluse of that feedback information. This is because the students didn’t arrange
or analyze the data gathered. In order to improve that situation, the authors
propose the database of Open House as making the environment for further
communications between the Laboratory and the general public in the OpenHouse.
In the next step of this research, the authors will try to gather morecase collections about the communications between the laboratories and thegeneral society, and creating the database useful for the various laboratories,
institutes to communicate with the general society.

A Study for Promoting Communication Between Research Institutes and General Society525

October 2008, Beijing, China

REFERENCES
Dean, D., 1996. Museum Exhibition. Routledge, London
Kondo,S., Hamada, S. and Meguro, K., 2001. Proposal of New Style
Disaster Manual for Implementation of Efficient Disaster
Countermeasures. Proceedings of the JSCE Earthquake Engineering
Symposium 26:2, 1481-1484.
The University of Tokyo homepage: http://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index_e.html
IIS homepage: http://www.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index_e.html
Meguro laboratory homepage: http://risk-mg.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/526

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

STUDY ON EPIDEMIC SPREADING ON
ALTERNATE SOCIAL NETWORKSSHUNJIANG NI 1,2 and WENGUO WENG 1
1
Center for Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, P. R. China
2
School of Aerospace, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, P. R. China
wgweng@tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACTIn this paper, a model of epidemic spreading on alternate social
networks is presented and investigated numerically. The alternate social
network consists of a family network and a public network, simulating thehuman contacts during some time (e.g. nighttime when the human usually
stays with family) and another time (e.g. daytime when the human usually
stays in the public place such as workplace, school, shopping mall, etc.)
respectively. Here the family network is comprised of several sub fully
connected networks since there are few persons in a family. While the public
network consists of several sub networks which can exhibit small-worldproperties and scale-free degree distribution, representing various types of
local interactions among social groups in modern society. Epidemic
spreading occurs alternately on the family network and the public network.
Typical relationships characterizing the spreading process such as epidemic
curves and ranges, etc. are discussed. The influences of the network
topology and the active time span of the sub networks on the epidemic
spreading process are investigated. Simulation results show that the
spreading process on the alternate social networks is independent of the
topologies of the public network, and an oscillation behavior of theepidemic curve is observed.
1. INTRODUCTION
Traditionally, the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, theSusceptible-Infected- Removed (SIR) model and their derivatives are themathematical models for the study of infectious diseases in epidemiology(Hethcote, 2000). However, these analytical models have one serious
disadvantage—they do not take into account the patterns or structures ofsocial interactions within population which can be modeled with complex
networks. Most of these complex networks share some important
topological feature such as small world (SW) properties (Watts and Strogatz,1998) and scale free (SF) degree distribution (Barabasi and Albert, 1999).
And then the dynamics of epidemic spreading in complex network has been
extensively studied. Studies show that both the disease characteristics andthe topological features of the complex network determine the dynamics of527

October 2008, Beijing, China

the spread of disease (Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani, 2001a; PastorSatorras and Vespignani, 2001b).
In order to capture the information on social interactions, many
complex networks have been used to model the social contacts (Keeling andEames, 2005). The spreading of a disease on top of structured scale-free
networks (Moreno and Vazquez, 2003) and in a population with ahierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions (Grabowski and Kosinski,2004) has been studied in detail by large scale numerical simulations with
the SIR and SIS models. Other efforts to consider more realistic contact
patterns are to use the generated network by computer simulations based on
the actual census, land-use and population-mobility data (Eubank, Guclu,
Kumar, Marathe, Srinivasan, Toroczkai and Wang, 2004; Meyers,
Pourbohloul, Newman, Skowronski and Brunham, 2005). But these models
only can partially simulate the social interactions due to the fact that thetime information of the social interactions is neglected. Thus, some recent
efforts to consider the time information are to introduce dynamical network
to model the spread of an infectious disease in a population of mobile
individuals (Frasca, Buscarino, Rizzo, Fortuna and Boccaletti, 2006) and to
adopt the adaptive network that the susceptible are able to avoid contact
with the infected by rewiring their network connections (Gross, D'Lima andBlasius, 2006).
However, most of the above studies concern the case of single
network which means that all individuals belong to the same social group all
the time, which may be true only for certain short time duration. Actually, inmodern society, daily human activities are marked by strong habits withlittle day-to-day variety (Huang, Sun, Hsieh, Chen and Lin, 2005). For
instance, students will go to school in mornings, frequently contact with
their classmates and teachers, and stay home with their parents after school;
adults will go to their workplaces on time and stay there until off duty.
Individuals constitute some local interactions among social groups in acertain time, after that, these interactions dismiss and form some different
ones. It means that individuals form different networks in different time
durations, that is, the networks have its own active time span, during which
the epidemic spreading may occur. In this paper we firstly constitute analternate social network which consists of a family network and a public
network to simulate the human contacts during some time (e.g. nighttime
when the human usually stays with family) and another time (e.g. daytime
when the human usually stays in the public place such as workplace, school,
shopping mall, etc.) respectively. Moreover, as mentioned above, thenetwork topology features are crucial for the spreading process of diseases.
Unfortunately, most of the network-based epidemic models lead to different
epidemic dynamics, which does not accord with practical situation because
the epidemic spreading behaviors should be sole on a real society. This

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inconsistency implies us to believe that these network models have missed
some information on the social interactions. Thus in this paper, we secondly
study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model on the presented alternatesocial networks. Epidemic spreading occurs alternately on the family
network and public network according to the network active time span.
Through the paradigm of alternate networks, this study tries to find more
realistic patterns of social interactions.
2. THE MODEL
The alternate social networks consist of two components: a public network
and a family network representing the population structure formed duringsome time (e.g. nighttime when the human usually stays with family) andanother time (e.g. daytime when the human usually stays in the public placesuch as workplace, school, shopping mall, etc.) respectively (Figure 1). In
the current network, a closed finite population of N individuals is
considered, which is randomly partitioned into several subgroups whose
size are uniformly distributed in the interval � a, b � . Individuals in the same
subgroup can be represented as a couple of co-workers at the same
workplace, a group of students at the same school, and so on for the public
network, or just a household for the family network. It is assumed that eachsubgroup is isolated from others, so only contacts among individuals in thesame subgroup are allowed. For example, if Individual i belongs to
subgroup A of family network and subgroup B of public network, he will
always stay in the Subgroup A during nighttime and the Subgroup B during
daytime. In the words of complex networks, these subgroups can be definedas sub networks with certain topology. All sub networks formed duringsome time (e.g. daytime) are referred to the public network. Similarly, thefamily network consists of all sub networks (namely households) formed
during another time (e.g. nighttime). The main difference between the
public network and the family network is the topology. For the public
network, all sub networks can be either a set of small-world (SW) networks
or a set of scale-free (SF) networks, with the average degree k ; while forthe family network, all sub networks are fully connected since there are few
nodes. The term ‘alternate’ means that disease transmission will be ongoingwhen the network (public or family) is active, and the infection process will
be shifted onto the other network (family or public) as soon as the current
network is deactivated.
The construction methods for sub networks of the public network aredescribed as follows. The small-world network is generated using theprocedure described in Ref. (Watts and Strogatz, 1998): (i) Start from a one
dimensional ring lattice with desired size satisfying the periodic boundary
condition and connect each node to its k neighbors; (ii) Rewire each edgeof the lattice with probability p , ignoring the self-connection andduplication of edges. The scale-free network is generated using thealgorithm in Ref. (Barabasi and Albert, 1999): (i) Start from an initial
network of m fully interconnected nodes. (ii) At each time step, a new node

Study on epidemic spreading on alternate social networks

529

October 2008, Beijing, China

with m edges that link to m different old nodes. The connection probabilityof a new node to the already present node i is given by � � ki � � ki / � j k j .
Finally, a network with an average degree k � 2m is generated, and thedegree distribution follows a power law p � k � � 2m 2 k �3 .

Figure 1: Schema of the alternate social networks. The family network andthe public network are formed during some time (e.g. nighttime when thehuman usually stays with family) and another time (e.g. daytime when thehuman usually stays in the public place such as workplace, school, shopping
mall, etc.), respectively. Dots represent individuals and lines between dots
represent contacts between individuals that could potentially lead to diseasetransmission. Each household in the family network is fully connected, whilein the public network each sub network can be a small-world or a scale-free
network. For both of the family and the public networks, the size of sub
networks is uniformly distributed.
Epidemic spreading is modeled using the SIR mechanism. Eachindividual on the public network or family network is in one of threepermitted states: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). Initially,
the status of N � N 0 individuals is set susceptible with N 0 randomly
selected individuals infected. The dynamics of the model are such that at
every discrete time step of duration 1 (time unit), every infected individualin the network: (1) infects its nearest neighbors, if susceptible, withprobability ps per neighbor. (2) with probability pr recovers and can nolonger be infected or infect others. This spreading mechanism will be
iterated for n time-steps (called as network active time span) on one
network (the public or the family), and after that the process will be
alternated on the other network (the family or the public) with another ntime-steps. This process can be readily iterated in numerical simulations
alternately until changes no longer happen.
3. RESULTS

In this section, we present some results from numerical simulations of themodel described in Section 2, with a system size N and N 0 randomly
selected infected individuals. All the simulation data are collected over 200
independent simulations, each of which corresponds to a different
realization of the public network and different initially infected individuals.

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For the purpose of comparison and discussion, we also perform simulationsof some other networks: 1) The population is modeled by only one network(called the single network hereinafter), the small-world network or the
scale-free network, of which the topology and generation algorithms are thesame as those for sub networks of the public network. 2) The single public
network as well as the family network, refereed to one of two componentsof the alternate social network. We mainly study the influence of threeparameters on the epidemic dynamics: the network active time span n , therewiring probability p of the SW sub network of the public network, andthe infective probability ps .
(a)

0.25

0.25

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0.004

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NI/N

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NI/N

0.30

0.008

0.00

NI/N

(b)

0.012

0.30

0.00

0

50

100

150

t

200

Figure 2: Evolution of the percentage of infected individuals on thealternate social networks for different values of network active time span
n=1 (circle), n=12 (triangle up), n=18 (triangle down), and n=24 (triangleleft). In the inset, the corresponding epidemic curve on the single network,whose topology is the same as that of the public network, is shown.
Subfigures (a), (b) and (c) correspond to the sub network of the public
network with small-world (SW) topology with a rewiring probability
p=0.001 (a), 0.01 (b), and 0.3 (c), while subfigure (d) is for the sub
networks of the public network with scale-free (SF) topology. The averagenode-degree for both the SW and SF sub networks is 10, while the sub
networks of the family network are fully connected. The size of the sub
networks is uniformly distributed in the interval [50, 150] and [2, 6] for the
public network and family network, respectively. The other parameters ofthe model are N=104, N0=10, ps=0.05, and pr=0.1.
Figure 2 shows the evolution of the percentage of infected individuals
on the alternate social networks for different values of n and rewiring
probability p . Figure 2 (a), (b) and (c) correspond to SW sub network of
the public network while Figure 2 (d) is for SF sub network of the public

Study on epidemic spreading on alternate social networks

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October 2008, Beijing, China

network. The corresponding results on the single network whose topology
and construction procedure are the same as those of the public network’s
sub network, are shown in the insets of Figure 2 (a), (b), (c) for SW network
and Figure 2 (d) for SF network. For the single network, the infected
population increase monotonously and quickly in the initial stage, and thenbegin to decline monotonously and vanish in the end. The reason is that as
the infection spreads the number of susceptible individuals decreases, andafter some time, the infection speed will be lower than the recovered speed.
Interestingly, it can be seen that the epidemic curves of SIR model on thealternate social networks express an oscillation behavior which cannot beseen in the single network. We investigate the relationship between thisunique feature and the parameter n , finding that the oscillation becomes
more obviously as n increases (ranges from 1 to 24). This phenomenon
implies that the family network and the public network play different rolesin the epidemic dynamics, which can be seen in Figure 3. Figure 3 showsthe evolution of the percentage of infected individuals on the family
network and the public network, and it can be found that the infection on thefamily network is much more quickly than those on the public networks (thetime to reach the peak on the family network is about 6, much less than thaton the public network). Moreover, as shown in Figure 4, the infection
curves from the family network reach the peak at the same time t � 6 ,regardless of the values of N 0 , and the infected population on the family
network has only a small increase before it decreases relative to that on the
public network. So it is concluded that the oscillation behavior found on thealternate social networks will not happen when the parameter n is less than
the time at which the epidemic curve on the single family network reaches
its peak. For example, we examined the behavior of epidemic spreadingwith several values n around 6, and found that the obvious oscillation
behavior did not occur for n � 6 (Figure 5). From Figure 5, it is indicatedthat when n � 6 at Figure 5(a) and (c), the curves are almost smooth andthere are no obvious oscillation behavior, otherwise when n � 6 at Figure5(b) and (d), it has obvious oscillation behavior.
0.032
0.028
0.024

����

0.020
0.016
0.012
0.008
0.004
0.000

0

25

50

75

100

t

Figure 3: Evolution of the percentage of infected individuals on the family
network (line) and the public network (square for SW sub networks with arewiring probability p=0.01 and circle for SF sub networks). The other532

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parameters of the model are N=104, N0=10, ps=0.05, pr=0.1, [a, b]=[2, 6]
for family network (fully connected) and [50, 150] for public network with<k>=10.
0.014
0.012
0.010

����

0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000

0

25

50

75

100

t

Figure 4: Evolution of the percentage of infected individuals on the family
network under different values of N0=10 (line), N0=50 (circle), and N0=100(triangle up). All curves reach the peak at the same time t=6. The otherparameters of the model are N=104, ps=0.05, pr=0.1, [a, b]=[2, 6].
0.35

0.35

(a)

0.30

n=2
n=3
n=4

0.25

0.20

NI/N

NI /N

n=7
n=8
n=9

0.25

0.20
0.15

0.15

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.05

0.00

(b)

0.30

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00

0

20

40

0.35

(c)

0.30

0.35

n=2
n=3
n=4

0.25

0.30

100

(d)

n=7
n=8
n=9

0.20

NI/N

NI/N

80

0.25

0.20
0.15

0.15

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.05

0.00

60

t

t

0

20

40

t

60

80

100

0.00

20

40

60

80

100

t

Figure 5: Evolution of the percentage of infected individuals on thealternate social networks for different values of n around 6. The topology ofthe public network’s sub network is SW for (a) and (b), and SF for (c) and(d). Obvious oscillation behavior on both the SW and SF public networks
occurs only for n>6. The other parameters of the model are N=104, N0=10,
p=0.01, ps=0.05, pr=0.1, [a, b]=[2, 6] for family network (fully connected)
and [50, 150] for public network with <k>=10.
Another interesting phenomenon is about the influence of the sub
network’s topology on the epidemic dynamics. In Figure 2, it can be seenthat the spreading process on the single SW network (in the inset) is very
Study on epidemic spreading on alternate social networks

533

October 2008, Beijing, China

sensitive to p , while on the alternate social networks p has very limited
impacts on the infection process. Moreover, the spreading processes on thealternate networks with SW sub networks and SF sub networks are very
similar.
1.0

(a)

1.0
0.8

0.6

0.6

�

�

0.8

(b)

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0
0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.2

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0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

�

�

1.0

0.0
0.0

(c)

0.8

�

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

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1.6

�

Figure 6: The fraction of ever infected individuals � as a function of theparameter �=ps/pr with pr=0.1 for different network topologies: single SW
network (square), single SF network (circle), alternate social networks with
SW sub networks (triangle up), and alternate social networks with SF sub
networks (triangle down). For alternate social networks, n=8. Subfigures(a), (b) and (c) are for different values of the rewiring probability p=0.001(a), p=0.01 (b), and p=0.3 (c). The values of other parameters are N=104,
N0=10, [a, b]=[2, 6] for family network (fully connected) and [50, 150] forpublic network with <k>=10.
In order to do a further analysis on the phenomenon described above,
we examined the evolution of the epidemic size as a function of theinfective probability (Figure 6). It can be seen that the epidemic thresholdon single SW network varied obviously as the rewiring probability p
increases, while on single SF network it almost disappears, which has been
pointed out by the previous researchers (Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani
2001b). Surprisingly, the infection spreads on the alternate social networks
with SW public network is nearly independent of p , and is almost the sameas that on the alternate social networks with SF public network. This
indicates that the infection mechanism of SIR has the same epidemic
dynamics on the alternate social networks, regardless of the topology of the
sub networks. In other words, the epidemic spreading on the presented
alternate social network is independent of the topologies of the public
network, which accords well with the practical observation. In the true

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society, it should have only one epidemic spreading mechanism in spite of
the SW and SF characteristics of the society network.
1.0

(a)

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

�

�

1.0

0.4
0.2

(b)

0.4
0.2

0.0
0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0
0.0

0.5

0.1

0.2

�

0.3

0.4

0.5

�

Figure 7: The fraction of ever infected individuals � as a function of theparameter �=ps/pr with pr=0.1 on the alternate social networks for different
network size: N=5000 (square), 104 (circle), and 105 (triangle up).
Subfigures (a) and (b) correspond to SF sub networks and SW sub networks(p=0.001), respectively. The values of other parameters are N0=10, n=8,
and [a, b]=[2, 6] for family network and [50, 150] for public network with<k>=10.
1.0

(a)

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

�

�

1.0

0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0

(b)

0.4
0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

�

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

�

Figure 8: The fraction of ever infected individuals � as a function of theparameter �=ps/pr with pr=0.1 on the alternate social networks for different
initial infected densities: N0=1 (square), 5 (circle), and 10 (triangle up).
Subfigures (a) and (b) correspond to the cases of SF sub networks and SW
sub networks (p=0.001) respectively. The values of other parameters are
N=104, n=8, and [a, b]=[2, 6] for family network and [50, 150] for public
network with <k>=10.
Finally, we studied the dependence of the diagram near the criticalpoint with the system size (Figure 7) and the initial infected density (Figure8), and found that a non-zero epidemic threshold exists, which is irrelevantwith the finite size effect as well as the initial infected density. The resultsof Figure 7(b) and Figure 8(b) are different from that the epidemic thresholdon SF network almost disappears (Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani 2001). It
means that although SF networks are measured in real societies, theexistence of certain kind of family networks prevents the spreading of thedisease across the whole network.

Study on epidemic spreading on alternate social networks

535

October 2008, Beijing, China

4. CONCLUSIONSThis paper introduces an alternate social network of human interactions tostudy the dynamics of spread of SIR epidemic. This alternate social network
consists of a family network and a public network, on which the spreading
process takes place in turn. The alternate social network consists of a family
network and a public network, simulating the human contacts during sometime (e.g. nighttime when the human usually stays with family) and anothertime (e.g. daytime when the human usually stays in the public place such as
workplace, school, shopping mall, etc.) respectively. And the spreading
process takes place in turn on the family network with fully connected
topology and public network with SW or SF characteristic. Both the family
network and the public network are comprised of several sub networks
which are assumed isolated from each other. The ‘alternate’ means that the
spreading process will alternately go on either the family network or the
public network when the network is active.
By means of many numerical simulations with the model, it is foundthat the influence of the topologies of the sub networks of the public
network on the epidemic dynamics is very limited. This phenomenon
indicates that epidemic spreading mechanism of the alternate social
networks model is independent of the topologies of the sub public networks,
i.e. SW and SF characteristics. We have also studied the oscillation behaviorof the epidemic curves, which is dependent on the network active time spann . By examining the spreading processes on the family network and the
public network respectively, it is concluded that the oscillation behavior
happens when the network active time span n is more than the time that the
spreading curve on the single family network reaches its peak. Besides, we
compared the results with those on the single network based on SW and SF
networks, and found that the oscillation behavior is unique for the alternatesocial networks. The influences of the system size and the initial infected
density on the critical point were also investigated, and a non-zero epidemic
threshold was found, in both of the cases of alternate SF networks andalternate SW networks. This result allows claiming that although SF
networks are measured in real societies the existence of the family networks
can prevent the spreading of the disease across the whole network.
REFERENCES

Hethcote, H. W. 2000. The mathematics of infectious diseases. Siam Review,
42(4), 599-653.
Watts, D. J. and Strogatz, S. H. 1998. Collective dynamics of 'small-world'
networks. Nature, 393(6684), 440-442.
Barabasi, A. L. and Albert, R. 1999. Emergence of scaling in random
networks. Science, 286(5439), 509-512.
Pastor-Satorras, R. and Vespignani, A. 2001a. Epidemic dynamics andendemic states in complex networks. Physical Review E, 63, 066117.
Pastor-Satorras, R. and Vespignani, A. 2001b. Epidemic spreading in scalefree networks. Physical Review Letters, 86(14), 3200-3203.

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Keeling, M. J. and Eames, K. T. D. 2005. Networks and epidemic models.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2(4), 295-307.
Moreno, Y. and Vazquez, A. 2003. Disease spreading in structured scalefree networks. European Physical Journal B, 31(2), 265-271.
Grabowski, A. and Kosinski, R. A. 2004. Epidemic spreading in ahierarchical social network. Physical Review E, 70, 031908.
Eubank, S., Guclu, H., Kumar, V. S. A., Marathe, M. V., Srinivasan, A.,
Toroczkai, Z. and Wang, N. 2004. Modelling disease outbreaks inrealistic urban social networks. Nature, 429(6988), 180-184.
Meyers, L. A., Pourbohloul, B., Newman, M. E. J., Skowronski, D. M. andBrunham, R. C. 2005. Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreakdiversity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 232(1), 71-81.
Frasca, M., Buscarino, A., Rizzo, A., Fortuna, L. and Boccaletti, S. 2006.
Dynamical network model of infective mobile agents. PhysicalReview E, 74, 036110.
Gross, T., D'Lima, C. J. D. and Blasius, B. 2006. Epidemic dynamics on an
adaptive network. Physical Review Letters, 96, 208701.
Huang, C. Y., Sun, C. T., Hsieh, J. L., Chen, Y. M. A. and Lin, H. L. 2005.
A novel small-world model: Using social mirror identities for
epidemic simulations. Simulation-Transactions of the Society for
Modeling and Simulation International, 81(10), 671-699.

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538

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in AsiaAPPLICATION OF SOCIAL THEORYTO THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS OF AN
EMERGENCY RETRO-FITTING METHOD1MICHAEL HENRY1 and YOSHITAKA KATO2
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japanmwhenry@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japankatoyosh@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ABSTRACT
Post-disaster retro-fitting and repair operations are necessary inorder to prevent further loss of life in the event of after-shocks and torestore infrastructure functionality. However, unpredictable conditions in
the wake of a disaster make it difficult to quickly apply these operations dueto the short-comings of the conventional retro-fitting methods. New
technologies in the concrete industry should attempt to reduce technicaldemand and cost of retro-fitting operations while increasing adaptability,
speed, and worker safety.
A new retro-fitting method utilizing fiber sheets with hydraulic resin isbeing developed to meet these requirements. The development has, thus far,focused on the general engineering aspects necessary to define thecapability of the technology. However, this technology will require the input
of not only engineers, but other social groups who will be involved in theutilization of the technology. Sociology of technology was studied in orderto understand the technological innovation process and how interaction
between social groups produces new technologies. Each social group
relevant to the technology has its own perspective on how the technology
should be developed. Therefore, to promote a development process whichtakes into account these different perspectives, the problems and solutionsof these social groups should be considered by the innovator during thedevelopment process.
1. INTRODUCTION
Japan is constantly at risk from disasters such as earthquakes, and a highlevel of safety is necessary to ensure that infrastructure survives should adisaster occur. However, existing infrastructure is aging and the economic
demand necessary to upkeep it is growing, resulting in a decrease in safetylevels and an increase in susceptibility to disaster damage. As the number of
weak structures increases, post-disaster retro-fitting and repair operations
will also increase. These operations should be speedy and efficient in orderto prevent further loss of life. However, conventional retro-fitting methods539

October 2008, Beijing, China

are plagued by the need for heavy machinery and intensive operations,which not only make mobilization difficult, but restrict the people who can
assist to a small set of trained workers. Retro-fitting methods which reduce
the technical demand of the operations, as well as increase adaptability andworker safety, may enhance post-disaster recovery capability.
One such method currently being investigated utilizes fiber sheetswith hydraulic resin as a wrapping material around damaged concrete
members to increase structural performance. While this method shows
promise from an engineering perspective, how to successfully develop andapply this innovation practically is a different problem. A retro-fitting
method such as the one proposed will involve a wide range of actors for
successful implementation: while engineers are concerned with mechanicalperformance, government officials may be interested in cost reduction orstorage and distribution, and citizens may be concerned about the technicaldifficulty of application. These are just a few examples of how different
social groups may view potential problems related with it.
In order to more fully understand the innovation process, this paper
proposes the study of the sociology of technology. This social theory can beused as a means to study how technological development occurs as anegotiation between different social groups. First, the emergency retrofitting method will be briefly introduced to provide a basic understanding of
the work done by the innovators up to this point. Then the social theory
background will be explained to show how the interaction between socialgroups drives the development process. Finally, the social model will beconceptually applied to the development process of the emergency retrofitting method by considering the relationship between the relevant socialgroups and their unique problems and solutions.
2. EMERGENCY RETRO-FITTING METHOD
The new retro-fitting method should improve upon conventional methods.
Steel plate jacketing requires heavy machinery and large scale operations,which are difficult to mobilize in the wake of a disaster, and full strength
cannot be achieved quickly due to the extensive nature of the repair
operations. Pre-cast panels come in fixed sizes, so they have little flexibility
for the large variety of structural shapes and post-disaster scenarios. Fiberreinforced plastic (FRP) jacketing is construction intensive, must be applied
by a specialist, and requires time before full strength can be achieved.
Considering the short-comings of the conventional retro-fitting
methods, the new retro-fitting method should attempt to meet the following
criteria: not require the use of heavy equipment; be easily transported bypeople; utilize simple construction methods without specialized knowledge;
achieve necessary performance within several hours; and be applicablewithout the use of heat or fire. By selecting these requirements, thesimplicity and ease of application can be met, as well as improved safety for
the workers and faster restoration of structural performance.
Based on these requirements, a repair method utilizing fiber sheetscontaining hydraulic resin was proposed. This method borrows from the
medical industry, where plaster is wrapped around broken limbs in order to540

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ICUS Report 31

provide strength and protect the bone during healing. Conceptually, therepair method would proceed as in Figure 1: after a structure has beendamaged by a disaster, fiber sheets are wrapped around the structure andwater sprayed to induce hardening, thus restoring structure performance.

Damage due Wrapping of sheet
to disasterand spraying

Hardening

Figure 1: Conceptual application process of the fiber sheet method
Initial development utilized medical plaster as the wrapping material(Fig. 2). However, the strength of the medical plaster in its hardened state
could not satisfactorily restore performance (Suzuki et al., 2008). As a result,a new material which combined multi-axial glass fiber sheets with highstrength hydraulic polyurethane resin was created (Fig. 3).

Figure 2: Medical plaster sheet and application

Figure 3: Fiber sheets with resin and application
Testing of the fiber sheets found that the material properties weresatisfactory and, furthermore, the effect of retro-fitting can be quickly seenas the resin hardening period is short (Suzuki et al, 2008). The application
method is simple, requiring only wrapping and spraying of water, and safe,
as no special equipment is necessary. Finally, the material itself is relatively
lightweight and easily handled. Therefore, the material meets the initialdesign criteria chosen based on the short-comings of the existing methods.

Application of Social Theory to the Development Process of an Emergency Retro-Fitting Method541

October 2008, Beijing, China

3. SOCIOLOGY OF TECHNOLOGY
Concrete technology has its own unique history of innovation anddevelopment. This technological development is carried out by humaninnovators; therefore, in order to understand how and why suchdevelopment occurs, sociology of technology should be applied.
3.1 Social Construction of Technology
Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) is a theory used bysociologists of technology to explain technological innovations, andgenerally focuses on how new artifacts are shaped. In SCOT, technologicaldevelopment is driven by the interactions between relevant social groups,
rather than other factors such as market demand. These social groups
represent different perspectives on the problems related to the innovation
process. As a result of these diverse interests, development of the artifact
occurs as a negotiation between the social groups. Furthermore, thetechnology is considered fully developed when it is accepted as such bythose who developed it. This section is an overview of Pinch and Bijker(1987); other references will be noted where necessary.
3.2 Formation of artifacts through social groups
A social group may be defined as an organization or group ofindividuals who all share the same perspective on an artifact. The relevantsocial groups can therefore be identified as those groups which possess
some perspective on the artifact (Fig. 4). After the relevant social groups
have been identified, they should then be described, in order to provide anunderstanding of their characteristics. This allows for a clearer insight into
the function of the artifact as seen by each group.
From each social group, problems and solutions can be identified, as
shown in Figure 5. Social groups may have different problems, or sharedproblems may have different solutions, thus leading to conflict in thedevelopment process. These problems may lie not only in the technical area,
but in other areas as well, such as economic or legal. Furthermore, as thenumber of solutions is varied, the potential forms for the artifact is alsoquite large, depending on which problems and solutions are resolved.
Socialgroup

Socialgroup
Artifact
Socialgroup

Socialgroup

Figure 4: Relationship between artifact and relevant social groups

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Problem
ProblemSocialgroup
Problem

Solution

Solution
Problem

Problem

Solution

Solution

Figure 5: Relationship between a social group and its perceived problems(left) and a problem and its possible solutions (right)
An artifact has reached “closure” when the form of the artifact
becomes stable and the problems are solved. However, it is not always
necessary to solve all the problems; rather, the social groups just need tobelieve that the problems are solved. Closure can be achieved in many ways.
One is rhetorical closure, which attempts to reach closure by convincing thesocial groups that the problem is solved by means such as advertising.
Another way to achieve closure is by redefining the problem such that theartifact provides a solution to a problem which wasn’t considered before.
3.3 Heterogeneous engineering
If the social groups used for this analysis reach beyond the technicalfield, then this type of development may be “heterogeneous engineering.”
This is a term proposed by John Law, who wrote that, in order to achieve
successful innovation, innovators must be more than just engineers or
scientists; that they needed to become “heterogeneous engineers” (Law,
1987). Heterogeneous engineers gather not only technical knowledge, but
attempt to create networks which contain the people, skills, and artifacts
necessary to achieve successful technological development. This networkbuilding derives from Bruno Latour and Michael Callon’s “actor-network
theory,” which studies the formation of networks consisting of both humanand non-human actors during times of change (Latour, 2005). Successful
engineering, as explained by Donald MacKenzie (borrowing from Law),involves building networks which bind together the human and organization
with the technological (MacKenzie, 1987).
4. APPLICATION OF SOCIAL THEORYThis type of social analysis is typically performed in a descriptive manner;that is, it is applied retroactively to understand how an innovative process
occurred. However, a prescriptive analysis could provide insight into how to
guide future development.
4.1 Initial development (engineer’s perspective)
As explained in Section 2, the new retro-fitting method needs to solve
several problems associated with the conventional methods. These are theApplication of Social Theory to the Development Process of an Emergency Retro-Fitting Method543

October 2008, Beijing, China

problems as seen from the perspective of the engineer (or innovator), so therelationship between the artifacts and problems can be drawn as shown in
Figure 6. Based on this initial concept, a retro-fitting method utilizing
medical plaster would solve these problems (Fig. 7).
Steel platejacketingHeavymachineryLarge
operations

Pre-cast
panels

FRP jacketing

Delayedstrength

Difficultapplication

Specialized
knowledge

Fixed size

Figure 6: Problems with conventional retro-fitting methods

Large
operations

Delayedstrength

Difficultapplication

Specialized
knowledgeHeavymachinery

Fixed size

Rapid
hardening

Wrap able
sheetsWater
spraying

Lightweightmaterial

Medicalplaster sheets

Figure 7: Medical plaster method and its related solutions
However, the medical plaster raised a new problem in thedevelopment process – namely, it failed to achieve satisfactory strength
performance. Therefore, the glass fiber sheet with hydraulic resin was
created in order to solve this problem (Fig. 8). Since the fiber sheets method
shared the same characteristics as the medical plaster sheets, with the
exception of improved material strength, it solved all the problems of theconventional methods as well.

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Medicalplaster sheets

Lowmaterial
strengthHighstrengthmaterial

Fiber sheetswith hydraulicresin

Figure 8: Problem with medical plaster and the fiber sheet solution
Initial development focused entirely on the perspective provided by
the engineer. As a result, all problems and solutions have been proposed andsolved based on the engineer’s perspective, as shown in the preceding
descriptive analysis. However, other relevant social groups will necessarily
have their unique problems and solutions.
4.2 Future development (other social groups’ perspective)
Heterogeneous engineering can promote successful technologicalinnovation due to the integration of non-technical perspectives into thedevelopment process. By utilizing the perspective of the non-engineers into
the development of the retro-fitting method, the final product will be a resultof multiple perspectives. Furthermore, this is an important integration asother social groups will be relevant actors when applying the retro-fitting
method in the practical situation.
Beginning with a new retro-fitting method, these social groups may
not share the same perspective that engineers do. As explained in theprevious section, from the engineering perspective the new artifact should
improve upon the conventional methods; the problems with theconventional methods were also identified from the engineering perspective.
However, other social groups may hold different problems. A simple,
speculative example is given in Figure 9. Here, two additional social groups
are introduced: the government official and the volunteer worker. From theperspective of the government official, the cost of the new retrofitting
method will determine what solution it can provide. If the new retrofitting
method is relatively cheap (a small percentage of the cost of conventional
methods), then the government may opt to purchase a large stock of thematerial and store it for future disaster response. However, if the material isexpensive (a high percentage of the cost of conventional methods), then it
would be more difficult to purchase and store a large stock. Therefore, thegovernment official might have two solutions: either redevelop the method
using cheaper materials in order to reduce the cost, or to utilize the retrofitting method on existing structures, in which case it would provide a costsavings relative to the conventional methods. A volunteer worker’s
perspective is more focused on the interaction between the worker and themethod, so ease of application of the retro-fitting method is the problem.
Solutions may include minimizing technical skill (make it easy for theworker to perform with little training) or requiring only basic equipment(ease of mobilization and application).

Application of Social Theory to the Development Process of an Emergency Retro-Fitting Method545

October 2008, Beijing, China

Buy &
store

Low cost

No
technical
skill

Govt.
official

Repaircurrent
infra

Ease ofapplicationBasicequipment
Volunteer
workerNew
retro-fitting
methodHigh cost

Differentmaterials

Engineer

Figures 6 - 8

Figure 9: Example of different social groups’ perspectives
4.3 Surveying the perspective of other social groups
In Figure 9, only three sample social groups are given, and the
problems and solutions of each group are based on speculation. These areas
can only be filled in by surveying the social groups to understand theirunique problems and solutions. Once this survey has been performed, then amore comprehensive prescriptive analysis can be conducted by utilizing thefull range of problems and solutions as provided by the social groups.
5. CONCLUSION
There is no assured path for success in technological development. However,sociologists of technology have found that creating a social network which
includes not only technological but also non-technological aspects may help
enhance the development process. This “heterogeneous engineering”
approach is useful as the development process occurs as a negotiation
between the problems and solutions of relevant social groups.
A method for examining the development of technological artifacts
was applied to a new emergency retro-fitting method. When applied
descriptively to the engineer’s perspective, it was shown how the problems
with existing retro-fitting methods could be solved by attributes of the new
method. However, the full usefulness of this analysis may be realized whencombined with survey information from the perspectives of many different
social groups. By plotting the problems and solutions as given by thesegroups, a path for technological development may be found which utilizes
heterogeneous engineering from an early stage, thus increasing the diversityof input used in the development process. Although such survey data was
not provided here, a framework was established which may be used, notonly for this artifact’s development, but potentially any development
process in which the artifact should reflect a wide range of perspectives.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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This research was supported by a financial grant from the Japanese Ministryof Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MILT) for the research anddevelopment of construction technology.
REFERENCES
Latour, B. 2005. Reassembling the Social, Oxford Press, New York.
Law, J., 1987. Technology and heterogeneous engineering. The Social
Construction of Technological Systems, MIT Press, Cambridge.
MacKenzie, D., 1987. Missile accuracy: a case study in the social pressuresof technological change. The Social Construction of Technological
Systems, MIT Press, Cambridge.
Pinch, B. and Bijker, W., 1987. The social construction of facts and artifacts.
The Social Construction of Technological Systems, MIT Press,
Cambridge.
Suzuki, R., Maehara, S., Ito, M., Kato, Y., 2008. Development of safety
emergency retrofitting method for damaged structure by disaster –proposing the method and examination the possibility of the method.
University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Journal, Vol. 60
No. 3, pp. 28-31. (in Japanese)
Suzuki, R., Maehara, S., Ito, M., Kato, Y., 2008. Development of safety
emergency retrofitting method for damaged structure by disaster –selecting material and effect of material property on repair effects.
University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Journal, Vol. 60
No. 3, pp. 32-35. (in Japanese)

Application of Social Theory to the Development Process of an Emergency Retro-Fitting Method547

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ROLE OF FIRE FORCES IN RESCUE AND
ITS DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN FUTURE
1. 2

2

JIANFENG YANG and YINGCHUN CHEN
Center for Public Safety Research , Tsinghua University, China
Hebei Baoding Fire Bureau, China
yjf08@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACTWith the continuously development of social economy, the national
industrialization and urbanization is increasing rapidly. All sorts ofdifferent public emergencies and disasters always occurred, while thecommunity emergency rescue mission is getting heavier and heavier. Public
security fire forces, as a major professional rescue forces play more andmore important role in various rescue. At the same time it is also facing newopportunities and great challenges. This article analyses the feasibility offire forces rescue in the community firstly. And then according to the
influences of different rescue types, models, the disposal principles,difficulties, we try to discuss the development trend of diversification in the
future rescue of fire forces and give some suggestions about the expanding
ways of fire forces social functions during the emergencies and disasters.
1. INTRODUCTION
With the continuously development of social economy, the national
industrialization and urbanization is increasingly rapid. All sorts of different
public emergencies and disasters always occurred, while the community
emergency rescue mission is getting heavier and heavier. In China, the main
force of emergency rescue is the troops and the masses of the people under
the leadership of the CPC. Fire forces are the major professional part among
them which is equipped with all sorts of rescue equipments. Participating inemergency rescue of fire forces is also the need of social objective
development, the need of increasingly disasters and urgent, difficult,dangerous heavy tasks. This article analyses the feasibility of fire forces
rescue in the community firstly. And then according to the influences ofdifferent rescue types, models, the disposal principles, difficulties, we try to
discuss the development trend of diversification in the future rescue of fireforces and give some suggestions about the expanding ways of fire forces
social functions during the emergencies and disasters.
2. ANALYSIS OF FEASIBILITY OF FIRE FORCESPARTICIPATING IN EMERGENCY RESCUE
Social emergency rescue includes mainly of dangerous chemicals leaked,
road traffic accidents, earthquakes and its secondary disasters, building549

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collapses, production safety accidents, air crashes, explosions and terrorist
incidents etc. And in line with disposal of flood and drought, weather
disasters, geological disasters, forest grassland fires and other natural
disasters, mining, marine accidents, major environmental pollution, nuclear
radiation accidents and public health emergencies, and so urgent, difficult,dangerous and heavy tasks And content. Fire forces participating inemergency rescue is the need of social development, mainly focuses on thefollowing aspects:
2.1 Social Emergency Rescue is the Responsibility of Fire Forces"Fire Law" clearly provides that: "Apart from completing fire fighting
task, the fire forces should also participate in other disaster or accident
rescuing work." This is the first time that the tasks clearly defined in law
and it is also provides a powerful legal protection for the fire forces to be aleading agency for the implementation of a social rescue.
2.2 Fire Forces’ Participating in Emergency Rescue is the Need of
Increasing Disasters
In China's rapid economic development and social transformation
process, fire forces’ participate in the emergency rescuing is the need ofincreasingly prominent disasters and urgent, difficult, dangerous and heavy
tasks development. Based on "Fire Law" relevant regulations, apart fromcompleting fire fighting task, the fire forces should also participate in otherdisaster or accident rescuing work. For example: Hebei Baoding Fire
Detachment accepted 119 alarm for 264 times from January 1st to June 20thin 2008. Among them the real fire fighting is actually only 146 times while
there are 118 times that was participating in, such as toxic gas leakage, thetower crane rescue, traffic accidents, building collapse incident, accounting
for 44.7% of the total. That is demonstrated that fire forces attend moresocial rescues more frequently than the fire fighting at present.
2.3 Fire Forces has Advanced Equipment
Emergency rescuing is a complex and dangerous social activity so it
must have the necessary modern rescue equipment to complete the task. In
recent years, each local fire detachment has been equipped with fire rescue
vehicles, cited high car, lighting cars, anti-virus and anti-chemical warfare
equipment, and detectors, life-saving, alert, plugging etc. Some detachments
also have the special equipment for disposal of anthrax virus and otherspecial disasters of. In addition, fire forces are on duty for 24 hours, so they
can keep the effective implementation of social rescue.
2.4 Fire Forces has High-quality TeamFire forces always maintain the structure of young contingent. In thestyle of discipline, it is rapid mobility, heroic tenacity and has the courage to
dedicate them to the spirit. At the same time the team members haveproficiency operational fire theory, rescue and fire fighting theory,
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participated in the disposal of various disasters and can adapt to thecontinuing work of the durability and resistance to resist the interference ofoutsiders. These provided a powerful guarantee quality for the completionof the increasingly arduous and complicated task of the rescue.
2.5 Fire Forces’ Participating in Emergency Rescue is the Need ofInternational Development
Fire forces participate in emergency rescue is the internationalcommon practice. Such as fire forces in the United States assume most of
the social emergency rescue mission. In the "9.11" incident rescue, fireforces played the most important rescuing role. Japanese "Fire Law" clearly
defined that the fire forces should attend the social emergency rescue workand give out detail demand about the team members quality and equipments.
In other countries such as France, Britain, Russia, Hong Kong, Singapore,fire forces are also responsible for different rescue and relief missions.
Therefore, following the development of the world fire prevention trend, wemust strengthen the construction of our country’s fire forces social rescuework.
3. THINKING ON STRENGTHEN FIRE FORCES FUNCTION IN
SOCIAL EMERGENCY RESCUE
3.1 Strengthen Emergency Rescue Organization and Establish 119
Command Systems
At present, our country's emergency rescue communication systems
are all settled in regional. Government, fire bureau, police, traffic,
earthquakes and other departments are all independent construction anddevelopment. There is not a unity social interaction communications system.
Such situation is not suitable for dealing with serious disasters. Present
existing emergency rescue departments can not guarantee the operation
coordinately. They established their own command center and it is a wasteof resources can not have great efficiency. Therefore, the establishment of a
uniform social rescue organization and command system is critical andimportant. According to our country's circumstances, fire forces is thecurrent core rescue forces, so establishing the Fire Services (119) as themain rescue Emergency Response communication system is the mostsuitable selection. And 119 command systems is formatted for a long time,the masses are all familiar with it. And it has the characteristic of rapid
reaction, covering a wide range of different area and command highautomation degree. So establishing 119-centered command system is thebest choice for integrating current different government resources andfinishing rescue tasks with high efficiency.

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3.2 Strengthen the Construction of Professional Fire Troops to Meet
Special Needs of Disaster Rescue Incidents
The main problems of our country's rescue system are: lack ofintegration; multiple inputs; function of one kind of rescue forces is single.
In the emergency rescue system construction, government plays the mainessential role. Development of fire forces is suitable to the needs of public
functions of public security rescue and now it is the main force in theemergency rescue systems. While in the construction of fire troops, theprofessional fire troops are the key one. During the developing ofprofessional fire troops, we must not only consider the need of objective
reality but also the possibility of economic strength. In the large andmedium-sized cities just like capitals in provinces, cities in the east part ofour country, professional Fire Battalion should be established. While in the
middle cities we can just do some adjusting and alternate the common fire
troop to professional fire troop. In some of the underdevelopment economic
cities should establish stronger professional fire defense classes. For
example, in Baoding City of Hebei Province, the Fire Battalion establishedfor eight years. And it has successfully disposed and participated in morethan 200 poison gas leaking accidents and other special disasters rescue andalways play key role in the rescue tasks finishing.
3.3 Scientific Training to Improve Rescue Level
In the current stage, in many places simulated training facilities are
not established restrictedly in accordance with the standards because of theeconomic conditions. Then the special technical training courses can not be
carried out. On the other hand, lack of actual combat training system andsome unscientific training contents make it difficult to require the actual
rescue training aim.
In order to strengthen the scientific fire training, first of all is tostrengthen the theoretical study business. And the commanders at all levels
need to strengthen the special disasters disposal theories especially
dangerous goods and chemical gas properties, technical parameters anddisposal of special professional knowledge. Second is to strengthen the
training of tactical application. Social rescue training must make the "actual
combat" as the center, highlight the technical application and should betargeted. The third is to strengthen scientific and technological training.
During social rescue training, it is necessary to pay attention to the training
methods’ scientific, but also pay attention to the training contents’ scientific.
The fourth is to strengthen disaster relief plans making.
3.4 Accelerating the Construction of Special Equipments in Professional
Fire Troops
Fire forces have been equipped with some special advanced
equipment, but there are still a wide gap compared to the actual combat andrescue’s needs. One is the equipments number, the other is the rescue
equipment’s performance is lagged behind the requirements of actual
combat.

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In the equipment construction we must highlight the idea "first is tosave people". So that the governments at all levels should increase the fire
rescue equipment construction input according to the "city fire station
construction standards", and it should be suited with the economic
development and social needs. First, we should enhance the equipments justlike life detector, dumping, life-saving campaign and search and rescue dogs,
rescue helicopters and so on. And we must pay attention to advanced
technology and comprehensive disposal capacity of the new equipment. The
third is to strengthen the existing equipment’s innovation and excavating
their deep potential.
3.5 Strengthen the Cross-linked Capability to Form Social Rescue Joint
ForcesSocial rescue is a complex system involving all aspects of society
departments and units. So we must strengthen the unified organization of all
aspects of command and coordination.
The first is the establishment of local command center under theleadership of the government. Secondly, the fire forces should take theinitiative to strengthen collaboration and cooperation with local industries,
departments and units of other social rescue forces. The third is tostrengthen the inter-regional fire rescue operations. Finally, simulation
training should be strengthened.
4 Development Trend of Fire Forces Rescue
4.1 Establishing Social Emergency Rescue System and Making Fire
Forces as the Public Security Main Forces
During the emergency management planning making, it is necessary
to clarify that fire units is the backbone of the team development. Secondly,
the fire units is the current implementation of a social emergency forces, it
is located throughout the large and medium-sized cities and towns. So weshould manage fire, rescue, and ambulance together as soon as possible.
Thirdly, strengthen fire forces’ comprehension system in organization andmanagement.
4.2 Seeking Diversified Development of Fire Forces and Making Duty
Fire Brigade as the Main Forces
Most developed countries have implemented professional fire forces
policy, and the implementation applied both in active duty and career firesystem. However, there is a huge team of volunteer firemen is the common
feature. At this stage, in order to meet the arduous task of emergency relief,the coexistence of active duty, the contract system and volunteer fire systemhave obvious advantages.

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4.3 Integrating Existing Disaster Relief Resources and Letting Fire
Forces Playing a Key Role
Integrating different rescue resources and establishing more contacts
among them, so they can apply emergency rescue management mechanism
well during the wartime. Establishing rapid deployment system for
emergency rescue equipment and materials reserves. Integrating social
information resources can shouten the rescue time and increase rescue
proficency.
REFERENCES
Fu Libing, 2006. Study on the Function and Position of national firefighting
force in construction of emergency rescue force system. Science andTechnology of West China 26, 72-76.
Zhang Yichao, 2005. The conditions and strategy for national firefighting
force to be engaged in rescue and aid operations. Fire Technique andProducts Information 10, 10-13.
Shi Jianchang, 2005. Study on the development of emergency rescue
function of the fire troop. Fire Science and Technology 3, 85-86.
Fang Jiang Yuan, Xu Tong, 2006. The establishment and development of asocialized emergency management system with firefighting force as
the main body. Fire Technique and Products Information 3 42-44.
Gu An-yong, Sui Hu-lin, Liu Hai-xia, 2005. Discussion on construction of
the national fire and rescue emergency integrated communications
system. Fire Science and Technology 2, 93-95.

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DEVELOPMENT OF EMERGENCYRETROFITTING METHOD USING FIBERSHEETS CONTAINING HYDRAULIC RESIN
MASAMITSU SUZUKI1ˈRYO SUZUKI2MASANORI ITO3 andYOSHITAKA KATO4
1
Architecture and Civil Engineering,
Shibaura Institute of Technology, Japan
2
East Japan Railway Company, Japan3
Tokyu Construction, Japan
4
International Center for Urban Safety, IIS, University of Tokyo, Japanm-suzuki@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTA new emergency retrofitting method for disaster-damaged structures
is proposed utilizing fiber sheets containing hydraulic polyurethane resin.
The simplicity, speed, and safety of this repair system make it feasible as arecovery technology. Compressive and bending tests were conducted ondamaged specimens repaired utilizing medical gips (plaster cast) applied indifferent ways. It was found that application is simpler when the sheet edge
is not fixed. In addition, performance was improved when the sheet rolls
were continuously applied. However, the plaster cast used in medical care
was found to not be applicable as a repair material due to low strength.
Therefore, a new material composed of glass fiber sheets containing
hydraulic polyurethane resin was developed and tested. Compressive andbending tests were conducted on specimens repaired using different resinand sheet types to examine the effect of material properties on repair
performance. It was found that, when there is adhesion between the fiber
sheet and the specimen, there is a large effect on the repair performance ofhigh strength resins. For the non-adhesion case, resin strength was found tohave no effect.
1. INTRODUCTION
In Japan, the importance of aseismic reinforcement in concrete structures
was realized after the Hanshin/Awaji great earthquake disaster of 1995.
Aseismic reinforcement improves ductility primarily by avoiding the brittle“shear fracture" which occurs in column members. Main transportation andemergency transportation roads in the Tokyo metropolitan area are mostly
reinforced by this method; however, there are still many structures which
may suffer serious damage due to the scale of the earthquake. In addition,
new structures cannot avoid damage, as they are designed to permit somedamage during a large-scale earthquake. When structures are damaged bynatural disasters, they require emergency retrofitting to ensure safety andfunctionality. Conventional methods, however, cannot adequately cope with555

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subsequent aftershocks, and large-scale repair works are time consuming.
The purpose of this research is to develop a new retrofitting method which
can be applied quickly, easily, and safely in the wake of a natural disaster.
2. CONCEPTUAL METHOD
2.1 Repair material and construction method
The development of an emergency retrofitting method should attempt
to satisfy the following requirements: to be applied quickly, easily, andsafely. Therefore, the authors proposed a new emergency retrofitting
method which provides the repair by wrapping fiber sheets containing
hydraulic polyurethane resin around the damaged RC column and spraying
with water to begin hardening. This concept is illustrated in Figure 1. The
idea of this method borrowed from the application of plaster cast used in
medical care, shown in Figure 2. The conventional plaster cast used in
medical care combines plaster of Paris and cotton cloth. However, in recent
years a product made of fiber sheet containing hydraulic polyurethane resinis becoming the mainstream.

Figure 1: Summary of conceptual method

Figure 2: The plaster cast used in medical care
The hydraulic polyurethane resin can harden in several minutes aftercoming in contact with water, so the effect of repairs can be seen quickly
because time to resinous hardening is short. Safety is high because
hardening requires only water application. The fiber sheet is lightweight andcan be wrapped around structures of various forms. Large-scale machineryis unnecessary since the only construction is wrapping. As a result theconstruction is simple and easy, and can be performed quickly. The fiber

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sheets have been used for aseismic reinforcement and prevention of coverconcrete spalling in tunnels, so it is a reliable material with proven results.
This method utilizes the fiber sheet containing hydraulic resin as afinished product. By utilizing a manufactured product, construction time is
reduced compared to conventional methods since it is not necessary to apply
an adhesive to the structure or to perform extensive preparations. Also, since
the quality of the material, such as resin thickness, is controlled during the
manufacturing process, the reliability of the fiber sheets should be high.
2.2 Target structures
Structures which suffer from shear fracture or bending shear fracture
are the target structures for this method. In columns which suffer shear
fracture, the horizontal stress suddenly falls after the maximum stress. In
addition, the column undergoes cyclic horizontal load due to earthquake
motion while under axial load so the axial stress falls. Concrete whichfractures in shear loses concrete cover and the reinforcing steel buckles, but
concrete under bending fracture has higher toughness because the safety
factor for bending is higher. In past disasters, structures in which bending
fracture was observed were still usable even without emergency repair
measures. However, structures which fail in shear need extensive repair.
Therefore, this method is applicable to columns which suffer shear fracture
or bending shear fracture. The method shall be applied at damage levels
which do not reach collapse.
3. TESTING OF MEDICAL PLASTER
The development of the retrofitting method is important for understanding
how the different methods of construction and materials have an influenceon the effect of repairs. The goals of the initial investigation were to
examine the feasibility of the method and to identify construction factors
which may affect the repairs. Medical plaster (casting tape) was utilized inthese initial experiments. Since casting tape is a medical product, theauthors believed it may not be easily transferred to application at theconstruction site; however, since fiber sheets containing hydraulic resin are
already available and in use, the handling was found to be convenient.
3.1 Property of casting tape
The casting tape is knitted from glass fiber in the horizontal andvertical directions, and greatly elongates when tension is applied in thehorizontal direction (Fig. 3). When utilizing the casting tape as a repair
material, its performance may differ depending on whether the tape wasplaced in tension before hardening. A tensile test was performed to compare
the strength of hardened tape without tension versus that with tension. From
the result of this test, the characteristics of the casting tape in tension, as it
would be when wrapped around the structure, were found to be satisfactory.

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Vertical direction

Horizontal direction

Figure 3: Casting tape
3.2 Experiments utilizing medical plaster3.2.1 Experimental procedure
The restraining effect in the cross direction using the casting tape wasconfirmed by compressive toughness test of repaired the cylinder specimens.
The shearing repair effect was also confirmed by the bending shear test on
repaired the prism specimen. Geometries of cylinder and beam specimens
are shown in Figure 4. When performing the experiment, first specimens
were given damage by loading. The loading was performed to a maximum
load point, and then the specimen was unloaded. Next, the damaged
specimens were repaired by wrapping the casting tape. Immediately after
wrapping, the specimen was submerged in water and soaked for around 1
minute to harden the polyurethane resin. Specimens were then removed
from the water and allowed to harden further for around 20 minutes. Thenthe ends of the casting tape were fixed by the prescribed method, as
explained in the next section. Specimens were loaded again after 1 hour.

Figure 4: Specimen configuration
3.2.2 Test Result
3.2.2.1 End anchorage
Three methods of end anchorage method were examined: epoxy resin,
pp-band, or no anchorage (Fig. 5). Normalized load-displacement behavior

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of specimens by different end anchorage is shown in Figure 6. Normalized
load is calculated by dividing the repaired specimen load by the maximum
load without damage. For epoxy resin and pp-band specimens, themaximum load was slightly higher than the no anchorage case before thesecond incline (incline after load-displacement relations changed). This
indicates that there was a restraining effect from the epoxy resin and ppband. However, the effect of end anchorage on repair performance wasrelatively small, as load and displacement at when the sheets broke were
almost the same for all three cases. As a result, the no-anchorage method ispreferable because it is simple and easy, and provides the same repair effect.

Figure 5: End anchorage

Figure 6: Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens withdifferent end anchorage
3.2.2.2 Wrapping continuity
Two wrapping methods were examined. Non-continuous wrappingused one sheet per sheet width with no overlap longitudinally. Continuous
wrapping used one sheet continuously, with the sheet wrapping at an angle
and spiraling upwards (Fig. 7). Normalized load-displacement behavior of
specimens with different continuity is shown in Figure 8. From this result, it
was found that sheet continuity had an influence on the maximum load
before yielding. The continuous-wrapping specimen kept the initial modulus
and exceeded the maximum normalized load of the non-repaired specimen –nearly 1.0 versus 0.82, respectively. It was concluded that for continuous
wrapping the maximum load rose because there was no gap at the center ofthe specimen due to the overlap in wrapping.

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Figure 7: Wrapping continuity

Figure 8: Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens withdifferent wrapping continuity
3.2.2.3 Concrete adhesion
It was found that adhesion with the concrete influenced the shearing
repair effect from the previous test result. However, not all specimens could
confirm improved ductility under after repair as the load suddenly feel after
exceeding the maximum load. This lead to the belief that the strength of thecasting tape is not sufficient.
4.

DEVELOPING A NEW REPAIR MATERIAL

As a result of the previous experiments, it was found that the casting tape
was brittle and inappropriate as a repair material. Glass fiber and hydraulicpolyurethane resin were chosen as new repair materials.
4.1 Hydraulic polyurethane resin
Two hydraulic polyurethane resin mixes, resin-A and resin-B, werecreated by diluting pure resin with water. The reaction of resin and water
was observed and resinous strength measured. From the experimental result,resinous strength was confirmed to decrease with increasing dilution.
Solutions with 80% resin were found to foam, but in 75% solutions no
foaming was observed, so 75% was set as the maximum dilution factor.

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Resin-A, mixed at 75%, was called high-strength; resin-B, mixed at 50%,
was called low-strength.
4.2 Glass fiber sheet
Glass fiber sheets were composed of glass fibers arranged in different
orientations (Fig. 9). Fibers in the 2-axes mesh were arranged at right angles
in the longitude-latitude directions. Fibers in the 4-axes mesh were arranged
with two axes at right angles in the longitude-latitude direction with two
more axes of fibers at forty five-degrees. The mechanical properties of theglass fiber as given by the manufacturer are shown in Table 1.

2axes

4axes

Figure 9: Glass fiber sheet
Table 1: Mechanical properties of glass fiber sheet

Direction Tensile strength Failure strain Modulus of elasticity[�][N/mm2][N/mm2]
Horizon883
2.0
4.42×104
Vertical1274
2.0
6.73×104
Diagonal954
2.0
4.77×104

4.3 New product development
The new repair material was produced by containing hydraulicpolyurethane resin in the glass fiber sheet. Testing of the bond with concrete
was conducted with sheet type and resin strength as experimental factors.
The results are given in Table 2. The interface detachment fracture energy
for design is set at 0.5 N/mm2 by the sheet reinforcement guidelines;
however, test specimens exhibited higher fracture energy. Therefore, the
new repair material has enough adhesion force even if surface treatment is
not performed beforehand.
Table 2: Bond test result

Resin strength
Low
High

Sheet

Muximum load
[kN]

2axes
4axes
2axes
4axes

6.5
6.49
9.88
7.2

Interface detachment fracture energy[N/mm]
0.60
nterface detachment fracture�
sheet fracture
1.37
nterface detachment fracture�
sheet fracture
Fracture mode

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5. TESTING OF NEW MATERIAL
5.1 Experimental procedure
In order to understand the influence of the new material on repairs,
compressive toughness test was performed with repaired cylinder specimens(Fig. 4). In addition, the effect of repair on shear was measured by thebending shear test on repaired prism specimens (Fig. 10). For each test theexperimental variables were the resin strength and adhesion. Before
repairing, damage was given to the specimens by unloading at 80% of
maximum load.

Figure 10: Geometry of shear specimens
5.2 Result
5.2.1 Compressive toughness
From the resin strength results, the resin strength was much smaller
than the sheet strength; therefore, it was thought that the influence of theresin strength was small. Comparing the sheet type results, 2-axes sheet had
a higher repair effect than 4-axes sheet, so the diagonal fibers did not show a
restraining effect. Influence of adhesion on repair was unconfirmed.
5.2.2 Bending toughness
Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens with different
adhesion (4-axes, low-strength) is shown in Figure 11. Adhesion specimens
showed higher maximum load than non-adhesion specimens. For nonadhesion specimens, the second incline after the maximum load was lesssteep. Therefore, the effect of adhesion is not clear when shear repair isnecessary to recover ductility behavior. 2-axes specimens had similar results.
Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens with different
resin strength (4-axes) is shown in Figures 12 and 13 for adhesion and nonadhesion, respectively. The influence of resin strength was different
depending on the adhesion condition. The largest effect could be seen for
the 4-axes and adhesion case. When applying the 4-axes sheet, adhesion
along the axis in the diagonal direction ran almost perpendicular to the shear
cracks, so the adhesion strength provided a repair effect. For the 4-axes andnon-adhesion case, the influence of resin strength was small. The resin
strength does not affect the tensile strength in the axial direction, which
would explain why no strength effect was seen in this case.

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Figure 11: Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens withdifferent adhesion

Figure 12: Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens withdifferent resin strength (adhesion)

Figure 14: Normalized load-displacement behavior of specimens withdifferent resin strength (non-adhesion)Development of Emergency Retrofitting Method Using Fiber Sheets Containing Hydraulic Resin

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6.

CONCLUSION

A new retrofitting repair method using fiber sheets containing hydraulicresin was proposed. An initial investigation was performed utilizing medical
plaster as a wrapping material. However, the mechanical property was notsatisfactory for repair application so a new product was developed. Thisnew material was created from glass fibers arranged in sheets andcontaining hydraulic resin. A retrofitting method utilizing this productwould not require large-scale machinery and the only construction operation
would be wrapping of the sheet. Therefore the construction is simple andeach and can be performed quickly. In addition, the effect of repairs can beseen quickly as the time to resin hardening is short. Finally, the safety ofthis method is high because the hardening process only requires theapplication of water, so no dangerous methods such as fire are necessary.
However, whether adhesion is necessary between the concrete and the sheet
is not entirely clear. In the adhesion case, the influence of resin strength on
repair effect is large, but in the non-adhesion case the influence of resin
strength is small.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by a financial grant from the Japanese Ministryof Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MILT) for the research anddevelopment of construction technology. The authors would also like tothank Mitsui Chemicals Polyurethanes, Inc., Nippon Electric Glass Co., Ltd.,and Tokyu Construction Co., Ltd. for their research support and Michael
Henry for his help during the composition of this report.
REFERENCES
JSCE., 2000. Concrete library 101. The repair and reinforcement guidelines
of concrete structure using fiber sheet, JSCE, Japan.
Suzuki, R., Maehara, S., Ito, M., Kato, Y., 2008. Development of safety
emergency retrofitting method for damaged structure by disaster �
proposing the method and examination the possibility of the method.
University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Journal, Vol. 60
No. 3, pp. 28-31. (in Japanese)
Suzuki, R., Maehara, S., Ito, M., Kato, Y., 2008. Development of safety
emergency retrofitting method for damaged structure by disaster �
selecting material and effect of material property on repair effects.
University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Journal, Vol. 60
No. 3, pp. 32-35. (in Japanese)564

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ASSESSMENT OF
EMERGENCY RESPONSE POLICYBASED ON MARKOV PROCESSYAFEI ZHOU and MAO LIU
Research Center of Urban Public Safety,
Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, P.R China
zhouyafei@mail.nankai.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
Major accidents can induce many adverse effects, they will not only
endanger the health and safety of the population, but also bring bad
influence to the environment around. In order to reduce the casualty andproperty losses caused by the accident, we should mitigate its adverse
effects. One of the most important aspects of mitigating the adverse effects
caused by the accident is the restriction of the exposure of the population to
the ensuing extreme phenomena (e.g. fallout, toxic clouds, thermal radiation,
overpressure, fragments etc.). In order to mitigate the adverse effects
caused by the accident, emergency response policy (ERP) andcorresponding protection action should be established. To maximize its
effectiveness, ERP should be evaluated and optimized, while the mostimportant criteria to evaluate the ERP is minimizing the health consequenceof the accident.
A discrete state stochastic Markov process was used to simulate themovement of the evacuees in this paper. The study area was divided into
nodes with different shape and size, the links that connected the nodes wereused to represent the road network in the area. Transition from node-tonode was simulated as a random process where the probability of transition
depended on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin
nodes and also on the link between them. Solution of the Markov processprovided the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area
as a function of time. Then, according to the way how extreme phenomena
impact individual and the dose-response relationship, the people’s healtheffects (e.g., death, several kinds of injuries etc.) obtained in the evacuation
process can be calculated, so that the accident’s health consequence can be
determined. Finally, different emergency response policies can be evaluatedwith corresponding health consequence, so that the emergency policy canbe optimized.
1. INTRODUCTION
The industrial equipments that use hazardous materials (toxic, flammable,
explosive) and nuclear power plant will induce major accidents potentially,
this will not only endanger the health and safety of the population, but also
have a negative impact on the environment. The protection-action of such565

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incidents is to stop them occurred and to mitigate their adverse effects after
the accidents happened. An important aspect to mitigate adverse effects of
the accident is to limit the number of people who exposed to extreme
phenomena (such as radioactive fallout, poison gas cloud, thermal radiation,
overpressure, debris).
In order to ensure the effectiveness of protective actions, it’snecessary to assess the Emergency Response Policy (ERP) according to thedegree of various consequences caused by the accident. One of the mostimportant criterions in ERP assessment is to minimize the healthconsequences of the accident. If protective actions include evacuation, oneof the most important factors in estimating the health consequences
accurately is to estimate dynamic displacement of the population in risk
realistically. The aim here is to simulate the dynamic movement of thecrowd, so that the emergency plan can be optimized according to the healthconsequences (minimum), while the optimization of the evacuation routes inaccordance with the minimization of the migration cost will not be
discussed in this paper.
Evacuation simulation of emergency situations such as chemical andnuclear accidents, as well as, natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods,
volcanoes, earthquakes and forest fires, has been extensively studied andreported. Southworth has conducted a comprehensive review of region
evacuation model, summed up that the information of transport structure,
the spatial distribution of population, the use of vehicles in emergency
situations, the individual response time to emergency circumstances, thechoice behavior of evacuation routes and destination, etc. were needed in
the simulation of large-scale evacuation of the population. Lee D.Han
simulated emergency traffic evacuation around a nuclear power station in
Tennessee with VISSIM which is a microscopic traffic simulation system
based on time and behaviors. Cova et al. proposed an approach ofevacuation paths based on driveways. Church and Sexton studied theinfluence mode of traffic conditions on evacuation time. Most of theevacuation models are used in the plan formulation stage, some models
provide traffic information as a time of function, while others are based on
simulation models initially designed for traffic problems.
In this paper, a discrete state stochastic Markov process modified by
Paraskevi et al. was used to simulate the movement of the population andcalculate spatial and temporal distribution of the population in evacuation,
so that the ERP can be evaluated according to health impact of the accident.
This paper consists of five sections. Section 2 describes the stochastic
Markov model which would be used to simulate spatial and temporal
distribution of the population. Section 3 presents the evaluation process ofhealth consequences. Section 4 offers a numerical solution of the Markov
model and discusses calculation of the health consequences through a casestudy. Finally, the section 5 offers a summary and the conclusion of thework.
2. STOCHASTIC EVACUATION MODEL
Basic elements of the model are as follows:

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The study area is divided into N sub-regions, which are called grid
nodes;
One node represents a geographical area which is artificiallydetermined, the size and shape of the area can be changed according torequirement while not require the same division. That is, a node is not
required to correspond to a single structure or function area of the real world,
it can represent a region that contains one or more buildings.
The nodes are connected between each other by links. The link can bea road that connects two building blocks. If the node corresponds to morethan one building block, then the link represents the capability of connectionof two adjacent nodes.
a (t )The model introduces the concept of transition probability rate ij ,which is the probability rate of an individual transferring from node (i) attime t to node (j) at time t � �t . It satisfies the following conditions:�a (t ) � 0, aii (t ) � � � i �1 aij (t ),aij (t ) � 0(if i � j )i , j �1 ij
N

N

i� j

a (t )The probability ij
depends on the travel time between node (i) andnode (j), i.e. the individual prefers to choose destinations that have shortera (t )
travel time. Calculation of ij
can be divided into two cases of nocongestion and congestion, the processes are as follows respectively:
� With no congestion:Uaij (t ) � (i � j )
d ij
(1)

aij (t )Where,
U� is the average speed of vehicles;dij� is the length of the link between node (i) and node (j);equals to zero if node (i) is not connected to node (j) or if there areconstraints.
� With congestion:
�� U ���� �� �1 � ri (t )� ��1 � rj (t ) �� if i � j��� dij �
aij (t ) � � N
��� a (t )if i � j� j �1 ij
� i� j(2)()
rt
is congestion level of node (i), it can be calculated with
Function ithe following formulation:
if ni (t ) � cM i
�rmax
�
�
ri (t ) � �� � ni (t ) � �
r
1
exp
�
�
�
� � if ni (t ) � cM imax�
� M i � ni (t ) � ���Assessment of Emergency Response Policy Based on Markov Process

(3)

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Where,ni (t ) � is the number of vehicles participating in the evacuation inn (t ) � xi (t ) � nT �;
node (i) at time t � ixi (t ) � is the probability of the individual (or vehicles) appearing in
0 � xi (t ) � 1�;node (i) at time t �
nT � is the total number of vehicles participating in the evacuation;rmax, c � are parameters impacting individual ( or vehicles)
behavior (rmax � 1, c � 1) ;M i � is the maximum capacity of node (i).

This paper aims at solving the crowd evacuation under congestion.
The movement of population is simulated randomly with thestochastic Markov model, selection of next node and link is based on traffic
information of the current node and link. The model can be described withthe following formulation:�x(t ) � x(t ) � A(t )Where,
x(t)� is an 1�N vector with elements(4)� xi (t ) � ;�� �
x i (t ) �x(t ) � is an 1�N vector with elements ���;� a (t ) �
A(t)� is a N�N vector with elements � ij � ;��

x i (t ) � is the derivative of xi (t ) with respect to time;�t � is time interval.
Eq. (4) can be solved through discretizing the time of transitions asfollows:x � n � 1� � x � n � P � n �(5)Where,x �n�
x n
� is a N�N vector with elements i ( ) ;xi (n) � is the probability that an individual (or vehicles) participatingin the evacuation is in node (i) in the interval �tn , �tn is the intervalt � �tn �n � 1, 2,..., T �
between time tn and time n;
P � n�
P (n)� is a N�N vector with elements ij;

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Pij (n)time

� is the transition probability of an individual from node (i) at
tn � n � �t
to
node
(j)
at
time

�

tn �1 � (n � 1) � �t 0 � Pij (n) � 1 andn� is the current time step �

�

N

�;

P ( n) � 1

i , j �1 ij

n � 1,..., T �;

T � Te / �t�
;T� is the total number of time steps considered �Te � is the total time considered for the evacuation simulation.

P (n)The transition probability ij
can be calculated with the following
formulation:
�
�
� N
��
� aij (t ) ��1 � exp � � aij (t ) ��t � � if i � j� N��� j �1�� �
�� � ij��1j aij (t ) ��
i
j
�
�
� ��
Pij (n) � �� N���exp � �� aij (t ) ��t �
if i � j
�� j �1����� i� j�(6)
The residual population changing with time in the evacuation region
and the total time required to complete the evacuation can be obtained after
solving the stochastic Markov model.

3. ASSESSMENT OF HEALTH CONSEQUENCES

One of the most important criterions in ERP assessment is to minimize theconsequences caused by the accident. Here the stochastic Markov model
was used to evaluate the population distribution that changes with time, sothat people’s health consequences can be estimated. In this article, poison
gas leakage was selected as an example to assess health consequences of theaccident.
An individual’s absorption dose at node (i) in interval
�tn � tn � t � tn � �tn , n � 1,..., T �
was assumed as a constant, which can becalculated using the non-linear relationship of toxic load and exposure
concentration and time. It can be shown as follows:Di � tn � � Ci� �tn(7)
Where,Ci � is the gas concentration at node (i), which is calculated by use ofgas diffusion models;� � is toxic load index associated with types of gases;�tn � is exposure time.

Absorption dose ( DT ) of individual can be calculated through thefollowing two-step:

Assessment of Emergency Response Policy Based on Markov Process569

October 2008, Beijing, China� D � tn � ��First, the individual’s average absorption dose �
at timetn � n � 1,..., T �
can be obtained through averaging out all nodes in the studyarea:ND � tn � � � xi � tn � Ci� �tn

(8)

i �1

Where,xi � tn �� is the probability that the individual appears at node (i) attime tn , that can be calculated with the Markov model described in thesecond part.
Then the overall average dose received by an individual in the processof the evacuation is:TDT � � D � tn �

(9)Conditional probability PD of various consequences (such as death,various injuries, etc.) caused by individual’s exposure to dose D, can beobtained according to corresponding “probability variable”:
� u2 �
1 Y �5PD �exp� � � du
�
2� ��
� 2 �
(10)
In practice, the Eq.(10) can also be transformed from probability
variable to percentage with the following equation:
�Y �5
� | Y � 5 | ��PD � 50 �1 �
erf �
��
2 ��
�
� |Y �5|(11)
Where erf is error function; Y is probability variable, it can be given
as follows:Y � k1 � k 2 ln � DT �
(12)
n �1

k1 , k2 are constants depending on types of accidents.

Let N 0 be the number of people exposed to a dose D. Then, theaverage expected number of people related to the respective consequence
N c is:N c � N 0 � PD

(13)
N
By comparing the c under various emergency strategies, the ERP

can be assessed.

4. CASE STUDY

There is a densely populated area with many large, medium and small
enterprises, some of which (such as oil refineries, chemical plants, etc.) use
a large number of hazardous substances. To reduce injuries of the accident,

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it’s necessary to develop emergency response policies (ERP) and takeprotective actions including evacuation when accidents happened.
The area was divided into 441 discrete nodes with the same size, as
shown in Figure 1. Vehicles were assumed to move only in the direction
away from the dangerous source. Initial number of vehicles and maximum
capacity of each node was distributed according to the regional response
operation center. The average evacuees per vehicle was assumed 3, theaverage speed (U) of evacuation vehicles was 10km/h, c and rmax was 0.8
and 0.9 respectively. Four corners of the study area were selected as
evacuation exits, so that the evacuees can stay away from the dangerous
source, as can be seen in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Accident description

The hazardous source in Fig.1 was assumed to have a liquid chlorinetank leak, the leakage amount was 500kg. Two ERPs were considered.
Radius of evacuation scope of ERP1 and ERP2 was 1km and 1.9km
respectively.
� Calculation of population distribution
On the basis of the Markov model described in the second part, thepopulation changing with time within the region can be calculated with C#
programming language. Part of the codes are as follows:
XVLQJ6\VWHPXVLQJ6\VWHP&ROOHFWLRQV*HQHULFXVLQJ6\VWHP&RPSRQHQW0RGHOXVLQJ6\VWHP'DWDXVLQJ6\VWHP'UDZLQJ
XVLQJ6\VWHP7H[WXVLQJ6\VWHP:LQGRZV)RUPV
QDPHVSDFH(YDFXDWLRQ^SXEOLFSDUWLDOFODVV(YDFXDWLRQ0RGHO)RUP^
ERROGHEXJ WUXHSXEOLF(YDFXDWLRQ0RGHO ^,QLWLDOL]H&RPSRQHQW Assessment of Emergency Response Policy Based on Markov Process571

October 2008, Beijing, China3& QHZ3DLQW&XUYH K/LQHVY/LQHV VHW7RROWLSV `SULYDWHYRLGEXWWRQB&OLFN REMHFWVHQGHU(YHQW$UJVH ^LI ,QLWLDOL]H'DWD)URP8,  IDOVH ^'LDORJ5HVXOWUHVXOW 6\VWHP:LQGRZV)RUPV0HVVDJH%R[6KRZ 'DWD
LQYDOLG?U?Q3UHVV2.WRXVHGHIDXOWYDOXH?U?Q3UHVV&DQFHOWRFRPSOHWHWKHWDEOH$UH\RXVXUH0HVVDJH%R[%XWWRQV2.&DQFHO0HVVDJH%R[,FRQ([FODPDWLRQ LI UHVXOW 'LDORJ5HVXOW&DQFHO UHWXUQHOVHXSGDWH7H[W%R[HV ᳈ᮄ䴶ᵓ᭄᥂`,QLWLDOL]H9DUV ߱ྟ᭄࣪᥂
3DLQW&XUYH HK/LQHVY/LQHV ⬏᳆㒓5HDG\ WUXHWKLV,QYDOLGDWH 

Remaining population within the evacuation region changed as afunction of time, as can be seen in Fig.2.

(a)



(b)
Figure 2: Remaining population in the evacuation region.
(a) ERP1, (b) ERP2

Evacuation scope of ERP1 was smaller, people had fewer options
during the evacuation, therefore, at the beginning of the evacuation, there
would be congestion and evacuation speed was slow. The relatively flat curein the beginning of Fig.2(a) reflected this problem. With the continuation ofevacuation, people moved to nodes having lower level of congestion and theevacuation speed were gradually accelerated.
Evacuation scope of ERP2 was bigger, people had more options
during the evacuation, so the probability of congestion can be reduced.
� Assessment of health consequences
To simplify the calculation process, Ci in Eq.(7) was calculated using

box model in accordance with the initial concentration of chlorine. It’s
necessary to use more accurate models (such as CFD model Fluent) toevaluate Ci . Here, � is 2, k1 is -8.29, and k2 is 0.92. According to the572

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ICUS Report 31

Eq.(7) – Eq.(11), with the results of the Markov model, health consequences
under different ERPs can be calculated.
Calculation results are as follows:
PD 1
N�15.02�� c 1 �5648
PD2
N�15.96�� c2 �18218
Clear time of ERP1 was shorter, so people’s various consequences
due to exposure to the chlorine was smaller. However, its evacuation
efficiency was lower, especially at the beginning of the evacuation.
ERP2 had a longer clear time, people had a longer time exposed tochlorine and it’s more possible to produce a variety of consequences as the
cumulative effect. Nevertheless, the evacuation was more efficient, andthere was less congestion.
5. CONCLUSIONSOne of the most important factors to assess ERPs is the possible healthconsequences (death or casualties) under the guidance of that ERP. And thatis the guideline of this paper.
Here, we select health consequences (death or injury) as our reference
indexes to study the effectiveness of different ERPs, and help decisionmakers make correct decisions in an emergency situation. That is,
minimization of health consequences is used as determination standard toassess and optimize the ERP.
In real-time command stage after the disaster, if there is enoughwarning time, the model can be used to help decision-makers to conduct
real-time emergency rescue decision-making. The ERP can be ajusted
dynamicly and real-timely, of course, this can not be separated from the
support of site information and transmission technology.
REFERENCES

Paraskevi S.Georgiadou, Ioannis A.Papazoglou, Chris T.Kiranoudis,
Nikolaos C.Markatos. Modeling emergency evacuation for major
hazard industrial sites. Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
2007.VOL.92:1388-1402.
Southworth F. Regional evacuation modeling: a state-of-the-art review.
ORNL/TM-11740. Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Oak Ridge National
Laboratory; 1991.
Cova T J.�Johnson J P. Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in
the urban-wild land interface[J].Environment and Planning�1997.
Church R L, Ryan M S. Modeling small area evacuation � can existingtransportation infrastructure impede public safety? 1998:123~131
Michael H. Triche;Andrew J. Graettinger;Akhilesh Pa. Emergency
Evacuation Modeling Based On Geographical Information System

Assessment of Emergency Response Policy Based on Markov Process573

October 2008, Beijing, China

Data. University of Alabama Civil and Environmental Engineering
Department.
BUSVINE J R.The toxicity of ethylene oxide to Calandra oryzae, C.
granarius, Tribolium castaneum, and Cimex lectularius. Annals ofApplied Biology, 1938, 25:605–632.
Papazoglou IA, Aneziris O, Bonanos G, Christou M. SOCRATES: a
computerized toolkit for quantification of the risk from accidental
releases of toxic and/or flammable substances. Int J Environ Pollut
1996;6(4-6):500-533.
M. Markiewicz. Mathematical modeling of the heavy gas dispersion.
http://manhaz.cyf.gov.pl/manhaz/monography_2006_5/part02/4_M_
Markiewicz_Mathematical%20Modelling%20Heavy%20Gas%20Disp
ersion.pdf
Keun-Won Lee. A Methodology for Assessing Risk from Released
Hydrocarbon in an Enclosed Area. Journal of Loss Prevention in theProcess Industries. 2002. Vol. 15:11-17

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

EMERGENCY RESPONSE OF
RADIOLOGICAL ATTACKS HAPPENEDIN THE CITYQIYAN ZHENG, LIJUN ZHANG and WEIQI HUANG
Commanding and Engineering Institute of Chemical Defense,
Beijing, China
zhenqy02@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ABSTRACTThe scenario that terrorists use radiological diffuse device in crowded
location is the most potential mode of the radiological attack in the city,which can achieve the terrorists’ intention of disturbing the social order andinducing the public scare. Radiological attacks happened in the city havesome characteristics such as the uncertainty of the attacked location and therelease source, emergency response and crime investigation usuallyproceed simultaneously, the attacked spot need recover to normal as soon
as possible, etc.. Against these characteristics, emergency response ofradiological attack events happened in the city was discussed from threestages: first response, early response and late recovery.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the eve and period of the Beijing Olympic Games, a series of bombings
happened in the cities of Yunnan Kunming, Kashgar and Kuqa, Xinjiang inchina, these blast events show that China’s cities face the reality of theterrorist threat. Terrorist attacks involving radioactive, radiological attacks,
is one type of the terrorist threats what China’s cites are facing.
Radiological attacks, also known as the nuclear or radioactive
attacks(ICRP, 2004), generally include three types(NCRP, 2002; IAEA,
2003):
1) Viciously releases radioactive substances with conventional bombs
or other means, such as the use of the so-called radiological dispersal device(RDD);
2) Attacks on a nuclear facility to arise a nuclear accident;
3) Detonate temporary nuclear device (IND), such as the roughnuclear weapons.
Compare the above three types, the use of RDD will be the mostimpossible mode of the radiological attacks in the city. This is because:
1) There are many rigorous security measures and a variety of systems
which ensuring it’s safety in the nuclear facilities, the attacks on nuclear
facilities hardly to be succeed.
2) Producing of the IND demands holding the nuclear fissile material
in high concentrations, also need high technological level, but most of theterrorist organizations hardly meet these demands.

575

October 2008, Beijing, China

3) Producing of RDD is relatively easy for terrorists, they can use
conventional explosives to diffuse the general radioactive sources (such as
medical and industrial sources), or process the sources into the form easy todisperse, so the terrorists can disperse radioactive substances into
environment as long as they open the container that radioactive sources in it.
4) If the terrorists use the RDD in a densely populated location, they
will result in radioactive contamination of the environment and the person’sradiation injury, more importantly, will cause a wide range of social panic
most probably because of the fear of radiation hazards.
Because of the most probability of using RDD by terrorists in theradiological attacks in the city, the characteristics are analyzed here for such
events as the representative of the urban radiological attack, and discuss the
emergency response for these events.
2. CHARACTERISTICS OF RADIOLOGICAL ATTACKSHAPPENED IN THE CITY
Compared with the nuclear and radioactive accidents, radiological attacks
happened in the city have some notable characteristics(Zheng, 2006):
1) The time and location are totally random and unpredictable forradiological attacks happened in the city. Such events are likely to occur insome densely populated places, there usually haven’t any radioactive
materials in these places, so the judgment and response are not prepared forradiological attacks.
2) In the early stage of a radiological attack, the information about thesource, such as type, total number and so on, is difficult to be obtained; suchinformation can only be realized through the environmental monitoring,
sampling and analysis in the process of emergency response after the attacks.
3) The radioactive substances released in the radiological attack
happened in the cities will have complicated diffusion or re-diffusion
processes because of the complexity of the urban environment and a large
number of people’s activities.
4) The victims at the scene of explosion attacks possibly have somephysical injury accompanied with radioactive contamination, and thefollowing medical rescue act will likely expand the scope of radioactive
contamination.
5) Except the extreme scenario, the irradiation won’t result in theimmediate death, but may result in serious psychological burden.
6) In order to carry out the crime investigation and evidence
preservation, the attack location will be controlled by the police as a crime
scene, but crime investigation and evidence preservation are often conflictwith the radiation protection.
7) In order to resume normal order of urban life as soon as possible,
the radioactive contamination must be cleaned out as quickly as possible.

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3. EMERGENCY RESPONSE ABOUT THE RADIOLOGICALATTACKS HAPPENED IN THE CITY
According to the characteristics of the radiological attacks happened in thecity, the emergency response may be divided three stages: first response,
early response and late restoration.
3.1 First responses
For any terrorist incident, the first to reach the spot is often the police
officers, firefighters or staffs of emergency medical treatment, their first
responses are to evacuate public, insulate the attack scene, fight fire, andtreat the injured. The first response stage is the first few hours after theterrorist event’s happening.
When the first responders enter the scene, they must first determine
the nature of the terrorist event is a conventional terrorist event, or isinvolved in radioactive, chemical or biological agents. If the event is to
identify a radiological attack, the first responders shall immediately request
the support of professional personnel on radiation monitoring. And the first
responders need pay attention to:1) Evacuate the crowd to the windward direction or the crosswind
direction, and control them at a fixed place to prepare for the detection ofradioactive contamination and decontamination treatment, but also to avoid
radioactive contamination spread to a larger area.
2) The demarcation of the isolated area had better be based on the
preliminary results of the monitoring; before gaining the monitoring results,
the scope of the area is isolated as larger as possible, so that it can containthe spread area with high concentration of radioactive substances, to avoid
those unrelated person entering the region and accepting unnecessary
exposure, but also to avoid a further spread of radioactive substances
because of a large number of personnel actions.
3) Before medical first-aid personnel move the wounded, it isnecessary to carry out the wounded simple decontamination treatment, suchas take off the coat, cleanout exposed skin, etc., to avoid bringing
radioactive material into ambulances and hospitals.
The actions of the first responders are crucial for the emergency
response of the radiological attacks. If those actions are proper, they caneffectively control the exposed crowds and the scope of radioactive
pollution, and can greatly limit the consequences of radiation hazards in themost extents. First responders usually do not have the professional
background of radiation protection, so it is necessary to conduct theradiation protection training in peacetime, and equip with some rapid
radiation measurement equipments. Those equipments will give alarm
signals when the radiation level is higher than the natural radiation
background. At the same time, the first responders must pay attention totheir own protection. For example, to avoid prolonging in the event scene
and carry personal dosimeters, real-time monitor the individual dose for no
more than the dose limits.

Emergency Response of Radiological Attacks Happened in the City

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October 2008, Beijing, China

3.2 Early Responses
Early responses are those actions that the professional radiation
emergency personnel enter the attack scene and carry out radiation
monitoring and personnel decontamination, also include on-site security,
fire fighting, medical treatment, crime investigations and other actions. The
duration of early response stage is about a few hours to above 10 hours.
When professional radiation emergency personnel enter the scene, thefirst thing to do is to use monitoring equipment to rapidly detect theradioactive contamination region, and establish the pollution control area.
Then they need collect some samples and analyses the concentration andcomposition of the radioactive nuclides. If there no analysis instruments atthe scene, samples must be sent to the laboratory. It’s necessary to make apreliminary assessment on the event’s scale. In addition, the responders
need deal with radioactive detection and decontamination for those crowds
evacuated from the attack scene.
Early responders need pay attention to:1) Equip with the necessary monitoring equipment and wear
protective clothing, and continually monitor the individual dose.
2) Be careful in those hot zone formed by the crowd flow, or a spreadof radioactive material, mark those regions.
3) For some airproof spaces, such as shopping malls, subway stations,etc., the air-conditioning or ventilation systems must be promptly closed
after the evacuation, to prevent the radioactive material spread to theexternal environment.
4) Collect samples for dust, soil, the surface attachment of objects,
vegetation, water, etc., if it is indoors, to collect air samples.
5) Analyze the samples’ radionuclide composition as soon as possible,
to provide important reference information for the early prevention andtreatment. For example, if there is radioactive isotope of iodine, responders
shall organize the exposure personnel to take stable iodine as soon as
possible, to reduce the inhalation irradiation from radioactive iodine in great
extent.
6) The assessment of event’ scale should be based on actual
monitoring data as much as possible, though some prediction models ofaccident consequences are available, but their applicability in the smallscale, complex surface of the urban environment still needs to beverified(Chen, 2005; Wei, 2006).
7) After detect and decontaminate those polluted personnel in theevacuated crowds, collect urine or other samples for further examination ofinterior contamination, to judge whether need medical treatment.
In early response stage, in addition to professional radiation
emergency personnel, there are police, fire man, medical personnel, crime
investigation officers, etc., they should be provided the necessary protection
guidance by radiation emergency responders, and do their work on thepremise ensuring compliance with the three principles of radiation
protection.

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3.3 Late restoration
Late restoration mainly is radioactive clearance of the spot, to restore
the environmental level of contaminated area so that people can live there
freely. Furthermore, need educate the public with basic knowledge about
radioactive, to eliminate their fears about radioactive, and the impact ofradiological attacks on the order of the normal city life. The duration of thelate recovery stage is about a few days to several months.
In late restoration stage, the decontamination of environment mainly
includes sweeping and scouring of the roads, ground and the buildings,
clearing away the city's green space. If radiological attack happened in
shopping malls, subway stations or other internal space, then the wholeinternal space need be swept, scrubbed and cleaned, and the indoor air mustbe filtered. Throughout the decontamination process, continue to carry out
radiation monitoring, until the monitoring results show that radiation levels
have reached the allowed standards, and then can confirm the completion of
decontamination. Radioactive waste, such as the dust from thedecontamination, soaked soil by water used for decontamination, should becollect, carry and bury on remote disposal site.
For radiological attacks in the city, there may be a small amount offood being contaminated, which can be disposed as radioactive waste. In
general, water pollution will not occur in such events.
In the late stage, the media’s education and guidance for public is very
important. Government must use all kinds of media to educate the public of
the basic knowledge of radioactive � making them have some certain
understanding about the health effects of radioactive substances, theenormous difference between radiological attack and the explosion of
nuclear weapons, and the effectiveness of emergency actions, dispelling
public fear of radiation. In particular, for those affected personnel in spot,
through education and guidance of the media, they won’t have serious
psychological burden.
The late recovery time should be short as much as possible, so as to
avoid causing long inconvenience to city life. So the late restoration shouldcollect a lot of manpower and material resources to carry out rapidly, which
requires the city to do a good emergency preparedness against radiologicalattacks in peacetime.
4. Conclusions
There are some notable features for radiological attacks in the city. Against
these features, emergency response of radiological attacks in the city is
divided into three stages: first response, early response and late restoration,
which is based on the response acts, and is different from the early, middle
and late stages of nuclear accident or nuclear and radiological terrorism
incident(Pan, 2005). The major response acts and the problem needed to pay
attention to in the various response stages were discussed. These discussions
provide references for developing emergency plans of radiological attacks inthe city.

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REFERENCESICRP, 2004. Protecting People Against Radiation Exposure in the
Aftermath of A Radiological Attack. ICRP Publication 96.
NCRP. USA, 2002. Management of Terrorist Events Involving Radioactive
Material. Translated by Pan Z Q, Chen Z Z. Atomic publishingcompany, Beijing. (in Chinese
IAEA, 2003. Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a
Nuclear or Radiological Emergency. Updating IAEA-TECDOC-953.
Zheng Q Y, Shi Z Q, Wang X Y, 2006. Some concepts and emergency
countermeasures about radiological attack. Atomic Energy Scienceand Technology(Suppl), 204~208. (in Chinese)
Chen X Q, Pan Z Q, Zhang Y X, Chen J Y, 2005. Forecast Model and Its
Design for Early Emergency Response to Nuclear Accidents.
Radiation Protection 1, 1~10. (in Chinese)
Wei D, Dong F J, Dong X L, 2006. Prediction of Diffusion Concentration ofRadioactive Nuclides during Nuclear Accident. China Safety Science
Jounal 3, 107~113. (in Chinese)
Pan Z Q (editor in chief), 2005. Management of Terrorist Events of Nuclear
and Radioactive. Science publishing company, Beijing. (in Chinese)580

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RESEARCH ON UNIVERSAL MODE
OF DESCRIBING AND ORGANIZINGEMERGENCY CASESBASED ON CASE-BASED REASONINGQIUYAN ZHONG, YINGJU ZHANG,
XIN YE and JIANGNAN QIU
School of Management , Dalian University of Technology,
Dalian, China, 116024
ABSTRACT
Searching for emergency action schema of the most similar historicalemergency case to aid current emergency decision-making is a kind of very
convenient and effective method to deal with emergencies. This paper
applied Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) to emergency aid decision-making
and proposed an universal mode of describing and organizing emergency
cases based on three-tier structure to facilitate the retrieval of similar
emergency cases. Then the mode was proved to be applicable and helpful
for emergency decision-making by the development of CBR prototype
system.
1. INTRODUCTION
Recent decades have seen significant increases in the number, scope andcomplexity of emergencies, which challenges social capability for real-time
response. Especially since the 9/11Terrorist Attacks, SARS and the Sichuan
Large Earthquake in China, people pay more and more attention to thetimely and efficient response to emergencies. It has been proved that it is avery direct and efficient way to help those commanders who are in theemergent environment to respond rapidly to emergency by searching for thesimilar cases that have been responded successfully in the past. However,cases that can be used as reference now exist in the form of dispersed andnon-structrual case texts lacking an universal mode of case description,
which leads to great difficulty in searching for similar cases quickly andefficiently. This paper applied case-based reasoning to emergency aid
decision-making to facilitate the retrieval of the most similar cases and thus
assisting emergency decision-makers in making efficient decision rapidly
for the command of emergency.

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2. THE ADVANTAGES AND DIFFICULTIES OF APPLYING
CASE BASED REASONING(CBR)TO EMERGENCY AIDDECISION-MAKING
Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), initiated by Roger Schank(1982), is an
important research direction of artificial intelligence in recent years. It has
been widely applied into problem solution, law case, medication, diagnoses,
computer-aided design and so on. CBR is a method that imitates humanity's
ability both for reasoning and cognition mechanism to solve domain
problems effectively. It is recognized that people commonly solve problems
by remembering how they solved similar problems in the past. It is often
more efficient to solve a problem by starting with the solution to a previous
similar problem than by generating the entire solution from scratch.
According to analysis of the above, it is feasible and necessary to apply
CBR to emergency commanding and decision-making by recommending
the action schema taken successfully previously to decision-makers, thus
assisting them to react immediately to the current damage. Applying CBR toemergency aid decision-making can make full use of expert knowledge andexperience that contained in the process of responding to the emergencies in
the past, which were called emergency cases. Furthermore, it is because
CBR uses cases as carrier rather than knowledge or rules to make use ofexpert experience, thus avoiding the defects of traditional knowledge
inference, such as difficulty in obtaining knowledge and knowledgepresentation, etc.
The greatest challenge of successfully applying CBR to emergency
aid decision-making is to design universal mode of describing andorganizing emergency cases. Although the CBR in emergency aid
decision-making has attracted much research interests of academic indomestic and overseas, their attention is kept on the theory level or focusedon a certain kind of emergency cases, such as fire disaster, etc. Guo,et al.
˄2006˅applied frame representation to describe emergency cases without
explaining the mapping relation between case description and storage mode,
lacking further research on the level of application. Wang˄1999˅pointed
that emergency cases consist of many attribute features with hierarchicalstructure, but when the type of emergency changes, the set of attributefeatures for a certain type of emergency cases is no longer applicable, thus
having certain limitation of his research. The same limitation can be foundin the literature 4,etc. This paper proposed an universal mode to describe
and store emergency cases based on three-tier structure to avoid thelimitation of describing one kind of emergency cases at a time only, which
was found in related research. Furthermore, the mapping relation between
case description and storage model was displayed. At last, the mode wasproved to be applicable by the development of CBR prototype which will
facilitate the application of CBR to emergency aid decision-making.

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3. THE PROCESS OF EMERGENCY AID DECISION-MAKING
BASED ON CBR
The process of emergency aid decision-making based on CBR can be
described as follows:
1) Input information of current emergency.
2) Retrieve the similar case with the current emergency in case base .
3) Revise the solutions based on expert knowledge and certain rules storedin knowledge base.
4) Output the modified solutions to help decision-makers make an efficientaction schema to command current emergency.
5) Evaluate the solution and retain the valuable information in case base.

4. THE UNIVERSALDESCRIPTION

MODE

OF

EMERGENCY

CASE

4.1 Characteristic analysis for emergency cases
Proper description and storage mode for emergency cases based on
their special characteristics should be designed so that they can be describedin the way that computers can recognize. Therefore, characteristics of
emergency cases were concluded in the paper as follows:
1) Emergency cases are non-structural and non-standard
The available emergency cases now mostly exist in the form of text,
which are non-structural, non-standard and have some problems of concept
inconsistency. In order to be identified and reasoned by computers, thesetextual cases should be stored in a standard and universal way.
2) Emergency cases cover with very broad domains
According to the Master State Plan for Rapid Response to Public
Emergencies promulgated by Chinese State Council, emergency can bedivided into four classes, namely, natural disaster\accident\public health andwelfare. Every type of emergency consists of several kinds ofsub-emergency. For example, typhoon, storm and earthquake all belong tonatural disaster. Therefore, the whole attributes of emergency cases involve
many domains, which can hardly be described in the same way.
3) Most emergency cases consist of several emergency events, each ofwhich was called meta-event in the paper.
For example, an earthquake case itself may consist of rainstorm event,debris flow event and plague event, etc. Furthermore, every meta-event may
have several states during the whole evolution process of emergency.

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Therefore, present emergency cases were mostly recorded based on state
information that evolved from the start to the end.
4.2 Concept Tree building for emergency domain
The problem of concept in emergency cases lacking consistency andstandard should first be solved in order to design the universal mode ofdescribing and organizing emergency cases. Therefore, we built up asecondary directory of concept tree for emergency domain under the branchof Engineering Technology referring to Classified Chinese Thesaurus.The
concepttree
canbedisplayedasfollows:
Emergency
Management--Emergency, and every concept layer consists of many
concepts referring to the Method of Split Facet, proposed by Smith(1983),
which
classsifies
things
by
the
form
of
Thing-Type-Part-Component-Nature-Process-Operation-Instrument.The
paper couldn’t be able to display the whole branches for the concept tree
due to the limited spaces. Based on the analysis above, it can be seen thatconcept tree is a kind of classification of thesaurus, and its effects on
emergency cases can be concluded as follows:(1) Classifying the different concept layers in the emergency domain.
(2) Making concepts in the emergency cases standard and consistent,
which will be helpful for describing the emergency cases in amore unified way.
(3) Building relationship between concepts which can avoid theconfusion of concepts.
4.3 Ontology model for emergency
It has been learned that emergency cases cover with very broad
domains from the analysis above.Furthermore, the attribute features varywith the type of the emergency cases. Some common features can beconcluded when the whole emergency cases were considered to be one
system, however. Therefore, ontology model for emergency(OME) was
created in the paper. Referring to the generally accepted definition of
Ontology that “an ontology is a formal, explicit specification of a sharedconceptualisationā(1994).OME was defined as follows: All the description
features that contained by every kind of emergency cases and that nevervary with the kind of the emergency is called ontology model for emergency.
It can be learned by the definition that OME is a base class for emergency
cases, which abstracts common elements for emergency domain and584

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extracts common attribute characteristics for these common elements. Basedon sufficient analysis for emergency cases, the paper put forward a
set-representation for OME from the perspective of System Theory.
E=<X, S, Y >E stands for OEM, X stands for input, with which the external canmake effects on the system. X can be sub-divided into inducement input,
nature input, social effect input, and artificial control input. S stands forstate information, which can represent feature vector for the state, spacial
information, resource and related technical parameter,etc.Y stands for
output, which means the effects that the system made on the external.
There are many attributes in OME, such as Event name, Event type,Time and Place of occurrence,etc.
4.4 Meta-event model for emergency
It can be learned from characteristic analysis for emergency cases
above that most emergency cases consist of several emergency meta-events.
Therefore, it is very necessary to create meta-event model to describe
emergency meta-event for the emergency case after its basic information has
been described by using emergency ontology model. Inheriting of featuresin emergency ontology model, meta-event model consists of individual
characteristics for a certain kind of emergency event. Every meta-event
model describes the individual information of the meta-event in the same
way as that in the ontology model, namely input, state and output. For
example, the Typhoon meta-event model created in the paper as follows:

Figure 1: Typhoon meta-event model
It can be seen from the Typhoon meta-event model displayed abovethat there are many individual features for typhoon, such as the centralpressure, moving speed, wind power and wind speed, etc. in the
sub-component of State except the common features inherited from OEM.

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4.5 Hierarchical representation for emergency cases
An emergency case was organized in the following form of
hierarchical representation based on the third attribute characteristic
analyzed above in the paper: basic information for the emergency
case—meta-event information—state information—attribute information.
The hierarchical representation can be described by the following Fig 2.

Figure 2: The hierarchical representation of emergency case
4.6 The universal mode of describing and organizing emergency cases
4.6.1 The creation of emergency casH base based on relational database
The creation of the case base depends on the form of caserepresentation. Therefore, relational database was applied in the research tostore emergency cases because of the hierarchical representation of
emergency cases. The advantages of applying relational database here canbe concluded as follows: The emergency cases can be organized in a very
simple and loose mode when there are not many cases in the case base, butsuch loose and disorder state of cases should be avoided when the numberof cases become larger and larger, such problem can be well solved by theinherent management mechanism of relational database.
4.6.2 An universal mode of describing and organizing emergency cases
based on three-tier architecture
An universal mode of describing and organizing emergency cases
based on three-tier architecture was designed in the paper, which can bedisplayed in the following Fig3.

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Figure 3: An universal mode of describing and organizing emergency cases
based on three-tier architecture
Table1is Case—Meta-event Relation Table, which describes therelationship between emergency case and meta-event information containedby it; Table2 is Basic Case Information Table; Table3 is Meta-Event
Information Table; Table4 is Meta-Event State Information Table; Table5 isMeta-Event Model; Table6 is Ontology Model for Emergency; Table7 isConcept Tree Table. The above seven database tables that in the storage
layer of the relational database connected with each other by some certain
association relationship to form the storage schema in relational database for
emergency cases. The hierarchical representation for emergency cases was
described based on the three-tier architecture, which means concept tree tier,ontology model tier and meta-event model tier. The dashed line in the
picture between storage layer of the relational database and case description
layer stands for mapping relationship between case description and casestorage.
5.

COMPUTER REALIZATION

To prove the universal mode of describing and organizing emergency cases
based on case-based reasoning discussed in this paper to be applicable, aprototype system for emergency aid decision-making was developed byutilizing Java Script as interface development tool and SQL server2000 as
database server. The interface of the prototype system can be displayed by
the following Fig 4.
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Reasoning587

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Figure 4: The interface for prototype system
There are two parts of information displayed on the interface. Calling
module for interface was displayed on the left of the interface, which
consisted of concept tree interface, ontology interface and meta-event modelinterface. The process of describing emergency case information based on
CBR is as follows: Calling the proper meta-event model interface according
to the type of meta-event contained by the current emergency case which is
being described. Then the description will be finished by inputting the basic
case information, meta-event information and state information. Everyemergency case was displayed in the form of basic case information,
meta-event information and state information just as the hierarchicalrepresentation that is displayed on the right of the interface. The computer
realization of the universal mode of describing and organizing emergency
cases designed in the paper laid a solid foundation for the final realization of
the Emergency Aid Decision-making Support System based on CBR(EADSSCBR).
6.

CONCLUSION

The paper presented an universal mode to describe and organize emergency
cases based on CBR to facilitate the retrieval of similar emergency cases.
The universal mode will efficiently avoid the limitation of describing one
kind of emergency cases at a time only, which was found in related
research.
Then the mode was proved to be applicable by the development of
CBR prototype which will facilitate the application of CBR to emergency
aid decision-making.

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REFERENCES
Roger Schank,1982. “Dynamic Memory: A Theory of Remindinand
Learning in Computers and People,”Cambridge. Cambridge
University press.
Guo Yongchun,Lu Xinghua,LiuYun,2006.Research on Emergency Decision
Support System based on case base .Micro-Computer Information. 22
˄8˅:148-150.
Wang Jiyu, Wang Jintao,2003.A Study of Emergency Decision Support
SystemBasedon
Case-Based
Reasoning.Management
Science,16(6):46-51.
F Ricci, P Avesani, A Perini,1996. Cases on Fire: Applying CBR to
Emergency Management. New Review of Applied Expert Systems,(6):175-190.
N.Smith,1983. Modern linguistics.Foreign Language Teaching and Studypress.
Pete A, kleinman D L,Pattipati K R,1994.Structural congruence of tasks
and organizations[C]. 1n: Proceedings of the Command andControl
ResearchandDecision Aids,NPS,Monterey,CA,
168-175.

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Reasoning589

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590

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COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED AND
OBSERVED SEISMIC INTENSITY MAP OF
SELECTED EARTHQUAKES
M. A. NOOR1 and H. KUMAGAI2
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology,
Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh,
2
National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention,
Tsukuba, Japanmnoor@ce.buet.ac.bd
1

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we are interested in studying large historicalearthquakes in and around Bangladesh (Mw > 6.0) because of the hazards
they pose to society. For example, the 1897 Great Assam, India earthquake
was felt in most of Bengal and hundreds of people lost their lives. The
estimation of earthquake hazards is important for the development ofbuilding codes, land use planning and the assessment of property insurance
rates. Seismic intensity has been traditionally used worldwide as a methodfor quantifying the shaking pattern and the extent of damage forearthquakes. The intensity map is more readily interpreted than other mapsof ground motion parameters. Our objective here is to convert magnitude tointensity; the first step in the process is to convert magnitude to PeakGround Acceleration (PGA) and then PGA to intensity. Here we used
Kanno et. el. relation to convert Magnitude into PGA and then we used
Wald et. el. equation to convert this PGA to intensity. We verify our resultwith the measured intensity values Off Chuetsu earthquake occurred inJapan on 16 July 2007. We found that our method could predict themeasured intensity very well. We then compared the estimated intensity
contour map with observed map for four selected historical earthquakes ofBangladesh using above process. Using this method, we can estimate theintensity of any location for a given earthquake. We may use this method toprepare intensity map for future earthquakes in any location and may use
this map for land use plan of major cities of Bangladesh, which eventuallyshould contribute to urban safety planning. We also calculated total PGA
contributed by the historical earthquakes in this region and found striking
similarity between high total PGA contour line and fault line direction.
1. INTRODUCTION
Every day there are about fifty earthquakes worldwide that are strong
enough to be felt locally, and every few days an earthquake occurs that is
capable of damaging structures. We are interested in studying large
earthquakes because of the hazards they pose to society. For example, the1897 Great Assam, India earthquake was felt in most of Bengal andhundreds of people lost their lives. The estimation of earthquake hazards is591

October 2008, Beijing, China

important for the development of building codes, land use planning and theassessment of property insurance rates. Strength of earthquakes (intensity)
can be estimated from the maximum amplitude of the “P” wave, which is
proportional to seismic energy released in small to moderate earthquakes. In
the Richter scale, the assigned magnitude increases by one unit for every
tenfold increase in the recorded amplitude.
Seismic intensity has been traditionally used worldwide as a methodfor quantifying the shaking pattern and the extent of damage for earthquakes.
Though derived prior to the advent of today’s modern seismic
instrumentation, seismic intensity still provides a useful means of describing
information contained in these recordings. Such simplification is helpful for
those users who are unfamiliar with instrumental ground motion parameters.
That is not to say that instrumentally derived seismic intensity alone issufficient for loss estimation. In fact, peak velocity and spectral response
may provide a more physical basis for such analyses. However, for the
majority of users, we expect that the intensity map will be more readilyinterpreted than other maps of ground motion parameters. Strength ofearthquakes can also be measured using the Modified Mercalli Intensity(MMI) scale, which is a qualitative scheme based on extent of damage.
Because surface damage is most intense near the epicenter and generally
decreases with distance, for any given earthquake this scale may vary
widely with geographic location.

Figure 1: Seismicity of Bangladesh
A seismicity map of earthquakes from -2150BC to 1997AD more thanmagnitude 4 in Bangladesh and its neighboring region are shown in the
Figure 1. In this paper, we studied how to estimate intensity distribution fora region from a known magnitude. We described the procedure ofestimating intensity from magnitude at the outset. Using the methodology
described in this paper we then estimated the intensity distribution of four
historical earthquakes in and around Bangladesh and compared withhistorical observed data. This study is very important as, if we can estimate
the intensity distribution for any earthquake which may occur in future,
which will help the policy maker to prepare a land use plan. We verify our
result with the measured intensity values of Off Chuetsu earthquake
occurred in Japan on 16 July 2007. We found that our method could predict
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the measured intensity very well. We also calculate total PGA contributedby the historical earthquakes in this region and found striking similarity
between total PGA contour line and fault line direction.
2. EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY ESITIMATION
Magnitude to PGA and PGV
We used Kanno et. al. (2006) relation to convert earthquake
magnitude to PGA and PGV. Kanno et. al. (2006) collected all available
Japanese seismic waveform data, including those from the many strongmotion observation stations set up by the Japanese government and otherorganizations, and used them to establish a new database. A large number ofhigh-quality strong-motion records were obtained from these new networks.
Based on the new database, they proposed new standard attenuation
relations not only for peak values, such as PGA and PGV, but also for 5%
damped acceleration response spectra, as a contribution to a future national
seismic hazard map of Japan. They assembled the largest possible numberof seismic waveforms, obtaining a total of 91,731 records from 4967 eventsin Japan and 788 records from 12 events in countries other than Japan andselected 11,542 records from 184 events in Japan and 377 records from 10
events elsewhere for regression analysis. Two simple regression models
were proposed for shallow (focal depth of 30 km or less) and deep (focal
depth of more than 30 km) events.
log pre � a1 M w � b1 X � log( X � d 1 � 10 e1M w ) � c1 � e1 ( D � 30 km)(1)

log pre � a 2 M w � b2 X � log( X ) � c 2 � e2 ( D � 30 km)(2)2
where pre is the predicted PGA (cm/sec ), PGV (cm/sec), or 5%
damped response spectral acceleration (cm/sec2), D is the focal depth (km),Mw is the earthquake magnitude, X is the distance from epicenter, and a1, b1,
c1, a2, b2, and c2 are the regression coefficients. Coefficient e1 = 0.5 wasselected for all periods in the present study. e1 and e2 are one standard
deviation. Determined regression coefficients for the base model inEquations 1 and 2 for PGA, and PGV, are given in Tables 1 and 2.
Table 1: Regression coefficients for shallow event model of PGA and PGV
Type
PGA
PGV

A1
0.56
0.70

b1
-0.0031-0.0009

c1
0.26
-1.93

d1
0.00550.0022

e1
0.37
0.32

Table 2: Regression coefficients for deep event model of PGA and PGV
Type
PGA
PGV

A2
0.41
0.55

B2
-0.0039-0.0032

c2
1.56
-0.57

e2
0.40
0.36

Site effects and regional features (local anomalous seismic intensity)
has been considered in their study but we did not consider those in ourpresent study. Using above method attenuation law that has been used in thepresent study shown in the Figure 2.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 2: Attenuation curves used in the present study
2.2 Intensity to PGA
Wald et al. (1999) have recently developed regression relationships
between Modified Marcalli intensity (MMI) (later revised by Richter, 1955,
Wood and Neumann, 1931) and PGA or PGV by comparing the peakground motions to observed intensities for eight significant California
earthquakes. For the limited range of Modified Mercalli intensities V� Imm<
VIII, Wald et. al. (1999) found that for PGA,
Imm=3.66 log(PGA)-1.66(s=1.08)(3)

and PGV within the range V�Imm�IX,
Imm=3.47 log(PGV)+2.35 (s=0.98)(4)Since we are also interested in estimating intensity at lower values,
and our current collection of data from historical earthquakes does notprovide constraints for lower intensity, Wald et. el. (1999) has imposed thefollowing relationship between PGA and Imm:
Imm=2.20 log(PGA)+1.00(5)

The corresponding equation for PGV and Imm is:
Imm=2.10 log(PGV)+3.40(6)

Using peak acceleration to estimate low intensities is intuitively
consistent with the notion that lower (<VI) intensities are assigned based on
felt accounts, and people are more sensitive to ground acceleration thanvelocity. Higher intensities are defined by the level of damage; the onset ofdamage at the intensity VI to VII range is usually characterized by brittletype failures (masonry walls, chimneys, unreinforced masonry, etc.) which
are sensitive to higher-frequency accelerations. With more substantial
damage (VII and greater), failure begins in more flexible structures, forwhich peak velocity is more indicative of failure.
2.3 Limitations of earthquake intensity measures
Although important and a successful approach to the early study ofearthquake size, intensity has problems, when we expand our study to594

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earthquakes that are not located near reference structures or earthquakes that
occur deep beneath Earth’s surface. For a fixed earthquake size, the regionof strong shaking can be an indication of the regional geologic structure.
One aspect of intensity that is difficult to quantify is the effect of the nearsurface geology on the intensity of seismic shaking. We call this effect a site
effect because it is local to each site. Several physical parameters can affectshaking intensity. The primary control of the site response is the rock or soil
type, and a secondary control structure is the water content.
3. VARIFICATION OF INTENSITY ESTIMATIONIn this study, we took a simple approach of directly mapping the historicalintensity distribution across Bangladesh. We used MMI intensity scale. We
used Equations 1 and 2 for the magnitude-intensity relations. We made no
assumptions about earthquake occurrence models. Since these are the resultsof the past earthquakes, the distributions will be different from the expected
intensities from future earthquakes. However, our results should be usefulfor comparison with the probabilistic intensity maps for seismic hazard. We
verified our results using the recent earthquake occurred in Japan on 16 July,
2007. It has detailed measured seismic intensity and PGA contour map.
We selected Off Chuetsu earthquake occurred in Japan in 16 July
2007 for verification purpose. We calculated the measured ground intensityfrom K-net (Japan) strong motion data. This intensity was calculated using
the maximum observed ground PGA. We used the relations given in
Equations 3 and 5 to convert PGA to MMI. We first ploted these on maps
and then compared these with our estimated intensity and PGA contour map
using the assumed magnitude-intensity equation and attenuation law ofJapan using K-net waveforms.
We at the outset tried to estimate the PGA from the magnitude of the
Off Chuetsu earthquake using the relation given in Equation 1, as this ashallow depth (16 km) earthquake. We then compared the measured value(Figure 3(a)) with estimated value (Figure 3(b)). We can see from thefigures that there exist good agreement between the estimated value andmeasured value. We then calculated intensity by using Equations 3 and 5,
and shown in Figure 4. These also show very good agreement. Theseequations may be used in calculating intensity of a location if data isavailable. This can also be used for land use planning by assuming any
future of desired magnitude.
4. COMPARISON BETWEEN ESTIMATED AND OBSERVEDSELECTED HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES OF BANGLADESH
We mapped the recorded seismic intensity for earthquakes in Bangladesh
from 1885 to September 2000 using compiled historical records and MMI
intensity data. We used a total of four events that had USGS magnitudelevel of 6 or greater in and around Bangladesh for our intensity and PGA
estimation analysis. Figure 5 shows the selected earthquakes on map.
Records are given in Table 3. Investigations of seismic intensities from
historical earthquakes are useful for characterizing the damaging groundmotions that have occurred in the past. We described each historical

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earthquake briefly in the following sections and then presented our results
for respective earthquakes.

(a) Measured(b) EstimatedFigure 3: PGA map of Off Chuetsu earthquake(a) Measured(b) EstimatedFigure 4: Intensity map of Off Chuetsu earthquake
Table 3: Selected historical earthquakes (USGS)
No. Year1
10 Jan. 1869
2
14 Jul. 1885
3
12 Jun. 1897
48 Jul. 1918

596

Lat
25.5
24.5
26.0
24.5

Long
93.0
90.0
91.0
91.0

Mag
7.4
6.8
8.7
7.6

Depth
30 km
30 km
60 km
60 km

Name
Cachar-Manipur (Assam), India
Great Bengal (Near Sirajganj)
Great Assam, India
Srimongal (Srimangal), Bangladesh

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Figure 5: Historical earthquakes in and around Bangladesh
4.1 1869 Earthquake
This M>7 earthquake occurred in the Sylhet region (Silchar) of what
is now NE Bangladesh. Although numerous accounts of this earthquake
were compiled by the Oldhams (Oldham, 1884) the data are insufficient toestimate a causal fault or a precise magnitude. Estimate magnitude fromdifferent sources was found Mw = 7.39. The most likely fault to be
associated with this earthquake is the eastern extremity of the Dauki fault, as
hinted by Austin, 1869 who was undertaking first-order triangulation in theregion at the time. Few first hand accounts of the event exist outside thecovers of Oldham. We first, for this earthquake, estimated the maximum
PGA using the relation given in Equation 1 considering this a shallow event.
We then estimated the intensity of the earthquake from given magnitude
using the relation given in Equations 3 and 5. Figure 6 and 7 show theestimated and observed (Oldham, 1883) intensity contour map, respectively
for this earthquake. We may observe from this figure that the estimatedintensity for Dhaka city is 5.

Figure 6:Estimated intensity map
for 1869 earthquake

Figure 7: Observed intensity map for
1869 earthquake (Oldham, 1883)

Comparison of Estimated and Observed Seismic Intensity Map of Selected Earthquakes

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4.2 1885 earthquake
The 1885 Bengal Earthquake, also known as Manikganj Earthquake,is one of the major earthquakes triggered in the historical past. The 1885
Bengal Earthquake with its possible epicenter near Kudalia in Saturia(Manikganj) and magnitude between 6 and 7 is of great concern for a
megacity like Dhaka. The earthquake damage and consequent casualty risk
of Dhaka are very high because of its very high population of about 13
million and large percentage of unplanned buildings and structures. The
earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) for Dhaka stands top among thetwenty high risk cities in the world (Khan, 2005). Following the sameprocess mentioned earlier we estimated the PGA first then estimated theintensity and compared with observed intensity map (Middlemiss, 1885).
The estimated intensity contour map and observed intensity map are given
in Figure 8 and Figure 9, respectively. We may observe from the figures thatfor both estimated and measured cases intensity for Dhaka city is 7.

Figure 8: Estimated intensity map for
1885 earthquake

Figure 9: Observed intensity map
for 1885 earthquake(Middlemiss,1885)

4.3 1897 earthquake
The 1897 Shillong earthquake, northeast India is considered to be oneof the largest in modern history (Rajendran and Rajendran, 2003). Oldham’s
memoir (Oldham, 1899) on this event widely considered as a classic treatise
opened new vistas in observational seismology; many questions on theassociated faulting mechanisms however remain unresolved. While mostprevious studies have suggested that the earthquake originated on a gentle
north-dipping thrust that is considered to be associated with the Himalayan
tectonics, a recent geodetic model by Bilham and England (Bilham andEngland, 2001) invokes a steep, south-dipping reverse fault, close to thenorthern topographic edge of the Shillong Plateau. Following the sameprocess described earlier we estimated the PGA first then estimated theintensity. Comparison between estimated intensity contour map andobserved intensity map is shown in Figure 10 and Figure 11, respectively.
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Figure 10: Estimated intensity map of1897 earthquake

Figure 11: Observed intensity mapof 1897 earthquake (Oldham, 1899)

4.4 1918 earthquake
1918 Known as the Srimangal Earthquake, occurred on 18 July with amagnitude of 7.6 and epicenter at Srimangal, Maulvi Bazar. Intense damage
occurred in Srimangal, but in Dhaka only minor effects were observed. It
devastated a relatively small area in the southern part of the Sylhet districtof Bangladesh adjoining northern part of Tripura. This earthquake
originated due to rupture along the high angle reverse Sylhet fault where it
is intersected by NW trending Mat fault. Its depth of focus was 60 km.
Following the same process mentioned earlier we estimated the PGA firstthen estimated the intensity. The estimated intensity contour map andobserved intensity map (Stuart, 1920) for this earthquake are given in Figure
12 and Figure 13, respectively.

Figure 12: Estimated intensity map of1918 earthquake

Figure 13: Observed intensity map of1918 earthquake (Stuart, 1920)

Comparison of Estimated and Observed Seismic Intensity Map of Selected Earthquakes

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5. TOTAL PGA
We estimated the contribution of all historic earthquakes (except 1897) tothe total PGA of this region. We omit two very massive earthquakes as theytend to bias the result. Total PGA plot is shown in Figure 14. If wesuperpose the fault map of the region then we can see that the estimatedtotal PGA is higher along the major fault directions. This technique may be
used to estimate the fault direction if there is no fault data available for any
region.

Figure 14: Total PGA map of all selected historical earthquakes

6. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we presented a process to convert Earthquake magnitude to
Intensity scale by using Kanno et. el. relation to convert Magnitude intopeak ground acceleration and then Wald et. el. equation to convert peakground acceleration to Intensity. We verified our result using Off Chuetsu
earthquake which struck Japan on 16 July, 2007. We found that these two
equations could predict the measured intensity very accurately. We used thisprocess, then, to estimate the intensity of four historical earthquakes in andaround Bangladesh. These intensity maps were also verified with theobserved intensity maps. We found good agreement between the values.
These maps can be used by policy makers for land use plan of major cities
of Bangladesh. We estimated the contribution of all historic earthquakes(except 1897) to the total PGA of this region. After superposing the fault
map of the region then we found that the estimated total PGA is higher
along the major fault directions. This technique may be used to estimate thefault direction if there is no fault data available for any region.
REFERENCES
Austin, G. (1869). Notes from assaloo, north cachar, on the great earthquakeof 10 January 1869. Proc. Asiatic Soc. Bengal, 15 March 1869:91–99.

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Bilham, R. and England, P. (2001). Plateau pop-up during the great 1897
Assam earthquake. Nature, 410:806–809.
Kanno, T., Narita, A., Morikawa, N., Fujiwara, H., and Fukushima, Y.
(2006). A new attenuation relation for strong ground motion in Japan
based on recorded data. Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 96(3):879–897.
Middlemiss, C. S. (1885). Report on the Bengal earthquake of 14th July,
1885. Records. Geol. Surv. India. Vol. XVIII, Part. 4, pp 201-220.
Oldham, T. (1883). A catalogue of Indian earthquakes from the earliest
times to the end of 1869 A.D. Mem. Geol. Surv. India. Vol. XIX, Part.
3.
Oldham, R. D. (1884). Note on the earthquake of 31 December 1881.
Records of the Geological Survey of India, 17 (2): 47–53.
Oldham, R.D. (1899). Report on the great earthquake of 12th June, 1897.
Mem. Geol. Surv. of India, Vol. XXIX, 1-379
Rajendran, C. and Rajendran, K. (2003). The 1897 shillong earthquake,
northeast India: A new perspective on its seismotectonics andearthquake history. American Geophysical Union.
Richter, C. F. (1958). In Elementary Seismology, pages 135–149, 650–653.
W. H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco, USA.
Stuart, M. (1920). The Srimangal earthquake of 8th July, 1918, Mem. Geol.
Surv. of India, Vol. XLVI, Parts 1 and 2.
Wald, D. J., Quitoriano, V., Heaton, T., and Kanamori, H. (1999b).
Relationships between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity
and modified mercalli intensity in California. Earthquake Spectra,
15(3):557–564.
Wood, H. O. and Neumann, F. (1931). Modified mercalli intensity scale of1931. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 21:277–283.

Comparison of Estimated and Observed Seismic Intensity Map of Selected Earthquakes

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COLLECTOR COMPARISON OF
AIRBORNE SALT ATTACK FOR MARINEINFRASTRUCTURES IN TAIWAN
KAI-LIN HSU and CHAO-SHUN CHANG
Department of Construction Engineering,
National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology,Taiwan.
vichsu@ccms.nkfust.edu.tw
ABSTRACTAs known, Taiwan is surrounded by sea. As a result, the corrosion
induced by air-borne salt from the sea is unavoidable for the marine
infrastructure. In this research, in order to understand the distribution andcorrosion influence of air-borne salt in Taiwan, by setting up onsiteexposure tests, i.e. the air-borne salt collector proposed by Public Work
Research Institute (PWRI , 1993) in Japan and Japan Industrial
Standard(JIS) Z2382 (1998), the corrosion map of air-borne salt in Taiwan
will be developed . By analyzing the collected air-borne salt, the effect andavailability of the different types of air-borne salt collectors can becompared. Then, the environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall,wind direction, etc. can be correlated with the stochastic distribution of airborne salt.
Through the collected data up to 18 months, the comparison of the
air-borne salt corrosion collectors for southern Taiwan marine
infrastructures is illustrated through the analysis given in this paper, which
can be used as the design reference for the required service life undervarious air-borne salt attack environments.
1. INTRODUCTION
At present, RC structures are still the representative construction works atpractice. Because the weather in Taiwan is sea-island weather, the RC
structures in Taiwan are prone to be attacked by chloride ion. The corrosionof RC structure is hard to be found at its incubation period while it reaches
its deterioration period when found. As a result, how to prevent in thedesign stage or early stage of corrosion is the key to effectively solve thecorrosion problem of RC structures.
As known, the potential corrosion of the marine RC structures may
resort to the amount of air-borne salt, which strongly depends on themeteorological and geographical features of the location. However, the sitedata on air-borne salt in Taiwan has been not fully established, this researchaims at conducting up-to-18 month experimental program; i.e. sitecollection and analysis of air-borne salt and meteorological information forthe southern Taiwan marine area at more-than-ten locations. Through the603

October 2008, Beijing, China

collected data up to 18 months (Lin 2008), the availability of the air-borne
salt corrosion map for Taiwan marine infrastructures is illustrated throughthe analysis given in this paper, which can be used as the design reference
for the required service life under various air-borne salt attack environments.
2. SELECTION OF AIR-BORNE SALT (ABS) COLLECTORS ANDEXPOSURE LOCATIONSIn order to trap air-borne salt near Taiwan marine area, the ABS collectors
suggested by JIS Z2382 and PWRI were adopted due to the similar
experience in Japan. The details for both types of ABS collectors aredescribed as follows.
2.1 ABS collector suggested by JIS Z2382
The type of JIS Z2382 ABS collector is composed of 10cm x 10cm
gauze clipped in hollow acrylic frame, as shown in Figure1. This apparatus
is so simple that the air-borne salt can be easily seized from all the exposure
direction only except for the space near the acrylic frames.

Figure 1: Layout of ABS collector suggested by JIS Z2382 .
2.2 ABS collector suggested by PWRI
The type of PWRI ABS collector is composed of 10cm x 10cm vent
open in stainless steel box collector, as shown in Figure2. In order tofacilitate the flow of air convection, there is another opening with 10cm x
10cm in the opposite side of the vent. In order to compare the effect of both
ABS collectors and prevent the effect of different exposure position, thesetwo ABS collectors were integrated into one set as also shown in Figure2 (a),in which the location of the openings of the collectors are set at the sameheight in spite of the horizontal distance at 10 cm.

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ICUS Report 31
BCT!dpoubjofs
Tubjomftt!gjyfs
BCT!dpmmfdups
wfou

Tjmjdpo!
Uvcf
epps

cvdlfuDpodsfuf!tqfdjnfo!
dpoubjofs

(a)

(b)

Figure 2: Layout of ABS collector suggested by PWRI.
Table 1: Geographical Information of Exposure Sites.
No.

LocationWind-face(direction/degree)

Distance toseashore(m)height(m)west/2701162

12

west/270

431

39

north-west/280

791

13

west/270

278

9

5
6
7
8
9

Port 10
Kaohsiung harbor
Port 1 KaohsiungharborDalinpu Kaohsiung
Jeguang
Kaohsiung
Nanje Kaohsiung
Chedin Kaohsiung
Anpin, Tainan
Annan, Tainan
Chigu, Tainan

south/180
south-west/250
south-west/220
south-west /200
north-west/350

2553
169
453
5078
150

31
17
14
8
9

10

Jianjun, Tainan

north-west /280

302

30

11

Koliao, Tainan

south-west /210

150

11

12

Budai, Chiayi

north/360

294

11

1
2
3
4

2.3 Exposure Site Selection of ABS collector
In order to trap the air-borne salt information around the southern
Taiwan marine area, 12 sites from Chia-yi to Kaohsiun have been selected,
the geographical information and location of which are given in Table 1 andFigure3 individually. However, for clarifying the collection effect of PWRI
and JIS ABS collectors, 3 set of PWRI ABS collectors and 2 set of JIS ABS
collectors were first installed on Port 10 of Kaohsiung harbor (No.1) as well
as 2 set of PWRI ABS collectors and 1 set of JIS ABS collector were built
up on Port 1 of Kaohsiung harbor (No.2) during 2006.12 and 2007.12.
Furthermore, one site meteorological station for collecting on-site weather
information was set on Port 1 of Kaohsiung harbor in 2007.07, as illustrated
in Figure4. Afterwards, since 2008.01, one set of PWRI ABS collector andone set of JIS ABS collector were added for another 10 sites, which spreadfrom Kaohsiung to Chiayi (i.e. No.3 to No.12), as shown in Figure3. Its is
worthwhile for the selection of No.5 and No.8 sites that the distance to theseashore for both sites are larger than 1 km due to the validation

Collector Comparison of Airborne Salt Attack for Marine Infrastructures in Taiwan

605

October 2008, Beijing, China

consideration on distance effect for air-borne salt in Taiwan present design
specification of RC structure.

Op/23

Op/:

Op/21

Dijbzjdjuz

Dijbzj Op/22
dpvouzOp/9
Ubjobo!
dpvouzOp/8

Op/7
Ubjobo!
djuz

Lbpitjvoh
dpvouz
Op/6

Op/5

.
UbjepoLbpitjvoh
djuz

Qjoepo

Op/3

Op/4

Op/2

Figure 3: Exposure-Site Locations of ABS collectors.

(a)

(b)

Figure 4: On-site Meteorological Station.

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2.4 Analysis of collected chloride
For analyzing the concentration of collected air-borne salt (ABS),
automatic titration tester is utilized by titrating 0.01 N AgNO3 for measuring
the weight percentage of collected ABS either from PWRI or from JIS ABS
collectors. Then, the concentration of analyzed salt can be converted to theamount of air-borne salt per unit day (mdd, 1mg/dm2/day, 1dm2 = 100cm2)
as given in Eq.(1).
Amount of Air-borne salt (mdd) =concentration of ABS (mg/ml) x volume of collected solution (ml)collection period (day) x collector area (dm2)(1)

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
After up-to-18 month on-site collection, the dependency of ABS on distanceto seashore, height of ABS collector, weather factor including rainfall,temperature, humidity and wind were investigated first; then, the feasibilityof PWRI and JIS ABS collectors was discussed finally.
3.1 Dependency of ABS on distance to seashore

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

As shown in Figure5, for PWRI ABS collector, when the distance toseashore exceeds 500m, the declination tendency of ABS turns obvious
while the collected ABS is close to zero when the distance to seashore isover 1000m. As for JIS ABS collector, the declination tendency of ABS canbe observed when the distance to seashore is over 500m while this tendency
may be violated for the case that the distance to seashore is up to 5000m.
As a result, from the on-site observation, there seems to be accepted that theamount of ABS may decrease with the increase of the distance to seashore.
However, this observation may be varied for the different type of ABS
collectors.
ˇˁˈ
ˇ
ˆˁˈ
ˆ
˅ˁˈ
˅
˄ˁˈ
˄
˃ˁˈ
˃

PWRI
JIS

˃

ˈ˃˃

˄˃˃˃

˄ˈ˃˃

˅˃˃˃

˅ˈ˃˃

ˆ˃˃˃

ˆˈ˃˃

ˇ˃˃˃

ˇˈ˃˃

ˈ˃˃˃

ˈˈ˃˃

Distance to seashore (m)Figure 5: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Distance to Seashore.
3.2 Dependency of ABS on height of ABS collector
As shown in Figure6, for both types of ABS collector, there seems to
be no clear dependency of ABS on height of ABS collector. Although theCollector Comparison of Airborne Salt Attack for Marine Infrastructures in Taiwan

607

October 2008, Beijing, China

Air-borne Salt (mdd)largest amount of ABS seems to be found under the height within 15m,
there is also some near-zero amount of ABS within height 15m. Frankly
speaking, the observation for dependency of ABS on height of ABS
collector cannot conclude clearly.
ˇˁˈ
ˇ
ˆˁˈ

PWRI

ˆ
˅ˁˈ

JIS

˅
˄ˁˈ
˄
˃ˁˈ
˃

ˈ

˄˃

˄ˈ

˅˃

˅ˈ

ˆ˃

ˆˈ

ˇ˃

Height of ABS collector (m)Figure 6: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Height of ABS Collector.
3.3 Dependency of ABS on weather factors
By recognizing the amount of air-borne salt will be affected by not
only the geographical conditions but also the climate conditions, one on-site
meteorological station was installed at Port 1 of Kaohsiung Harbor forcollecting on-site wind velocity, wind direction, temperature, humidity andrainfall data. Moreover, the weather information at Nanje, Shougan, Jouin,
Chenjin, Linyuan, Chaotou, Poje, Shinin, Annan, Kaohsiung, Tainan,
Younkan, Shanhua and Jyugin were purchased from Central Weather
Bureau of Taiwan. By interpolating all purchased weather information, allweather information at the on-site ABS collectors can be estimated.
However, during the sorting of the weather information, it was found that
there was high peak of rainfall and wind velocity due to typhoon invasion
between 2007.07 and 2007.08. In order to distinguish the influence of thetyphoon on air-borne salt, the weather information during 2007.07 and2007.08 were separated with the weather information during otherobservation period, which were tabulated in Table 2.
Table 2: Recorded Weather Information and ABS during Typhoon Invasion.
AirWind
Collector

Exposure Periodtemperaturehumidity
velocity

Location
Type

borne
salt

(к)

(Year/month/day)

(%)
(m/s)

Wind-

rainfall

face
ratio

(mm)

(mdd)

Port 10 ofKaohsiung
Harbor608

PWRI

2007.07.26~08.23

1.477

29.35

72.77

2.732

0.231

1966.42007.07.26~08.23

0.957

29.35

72.78

2.732

0.231

1966.42007.07.26~08.23

1.494

29.35

72.77

2.732

0.231

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AirWind
Exposure Period

Collector

borne

temperaturehumidity
velocity

Location

salt

Type

(к)

(Year/month/day)

(%)
(m/s)

Wind-

rainfall

face
ratio

(mm)

(mdd)

JIS

Port 1 of

0.011

30.57

66.52

2.274

0.233

72.3

2007.08.07~09.04

0.011

28.58

78.82

2.410

0.245

2115.32007.06.26~07.10

0.009

31.11

66.30

3.069

0.225

30.5

2007.08.07~08.21

0.007

28.27

91.02

3.368

0.241

1516.92007.07.26~08.21

1.654

28.83

78.35

2.696

0.163

1945.6

2007.07.31~08.28

3.288

28.49

80.61

2.77

0.12

1959.6

2007.08.21~09.04

0.009

29.08

74.09

1.688

0.185

171

PWRI

Kaohsiung
Harbor2007.06.12~07.10

JIS

3.3.1 Rainfall
If excluding the influence of typhoon invasion, the dependency of
ABS on the recorded rainfall can be given in Figure7. For PWRI collector,
with the increase of rainfall, there is moderate raise of ABS. If the rainfall
due to typhoon is included, as shown in Figure8, it is obvious that there isclear dependency of ABS on the rush of rainfall. On the other hand, for JIS
collector, with the increase of rainfall, the collected ABS showed thedecrease tendency. Especially, when the rainfall is over 300mm, the ABS
collected by JIS type is almost close to zero. For such kind of variation,�washout effect� may be a good reason for explaining the huge different of
ABS collection; that is to say, for larger rainfall, the recorded ABS shouldbe less due to the washout.
Air-borne Salt (mdd)

˅ˁ˄
˄ˁˋ

PWRI

˄ˁˈ

JIS

˄ˁ˅
˃ˁˌ
˃ˁˉ
˃ˁˆ
˃ˁ˃
˃

ˈ˃

˄˃˃

˄ˈ˃

˅˃˃

˅ˈ˃

ˆ˃˃

ˆˈ˃

Rainfall (mm)Figure 7: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Rainfall excluding Typhoon
Invasion.

Collector Comparison of Airborne Salt Attack for Marine Infrastructures in Taiwan

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October 2008, Beijing, China
PWRI

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

ˆˁˈ

JIS

ˆˁ˃
˅ˁˈ
˅ˁ˃
˄ˁˈ
˄ˁ˃
˃ˁˈ
˃ˁ˃
˃

ˆ˃˃

ˉ˃˃

ˌ˃˃

˄˅˃˃

˄ˈ˃˃

˄ˋ˃˃

˅˄˃˃

˅ˇ˃˃

Rainfall (mm)Figure 8: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Rainfall including Typhoon
Invasion.
3.3.2 Temperature
As shown in Figure 9, it seems quite obscure for the dependency of
ABS on temperature, either for PWRI type or for JIS type.
PWRI

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

ˆˁˈ

JIS

ˆˁ˃
˅ˁˈ
˅ˁ˃
˄ˁˈ
˄ˁ˃
˃ˁˈ
˃ˁ˃
˄ˈ

˄ˋ

˅˄

˅ˇ

˅ˊ

ˆ˃

ˆˆ

Temperature (oC)

Figure 9: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Temperature.
3.3.3 Humidity
As shown in Figure 10, it can be found that there is bell-type
distribution of ABS along the increase of humidity, either for PWRI type orfor JIS type, which means the accumulation of ABS due to humidity on thesurface of the collector will grow up to certain limit; then, owing to theweight of ABS and the formation of water drop on the surface of thecollector, the fall of water drop will bring down the accumulated ABS.
PWRI

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

ˆˁˈ

JIS

ˆˁ˃
˅ˁˈ
˅ˁ˃
˄ˁˈ
˄ˁ˃
˃ˁˈ
˃ˁ˃
˄ˈ

˅ˈ

ˆˈ

ˇˈ

ˈˈ

ˉˈ

ˊˈ

ˋˈ

ˌˈ

Humidity (%)

Figure 10: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Humidity.

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3.3.4 Wind
In order to clarify the dependency of ABS on wind, there will be two
factors for discussion – one is wind velocity and the other is wind-face ratio.
The wind-face ratio is defined as the ratio of wind direction vertical to thesurface of the collector per collection period. As shown in Figure11, it isdifficult to judge if there is clear dependency of ABS on wind velocity,either for PWRI type or for JIS type. However, for JIS type, the amount of
ABS seems to be generally larger than the amount of ABS from PWRI
collector with the increase of wind velocity, which coincides with theobservation findings of on-site RC structures.
PWRI

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

ˆˁˈ

JIS

ˆˁ˃
˅ˁˈ
˅ˁ˃
˄ˁˈ
˄ˁ˃
˃ˁˈ
˃ˁ˃
˃ˁ˃

˃ˁˈ

˄ˁ˃

˄ˁˈ

˅ˁ˃

˅ˁˈ

ˆˁ˃

ˆˁˈ

ˇˁ˃

ˇˁˈ

ˈˁ˃

Wind Velocity (m/s)

Figure 11: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Wind Velocity.
As for the wind-face ratio, from Figure12, it is also hard to find if
there is clear dependency of ABS on wind-face ratio. However, for JIS type,the amount of ABS seems to be generally larger than the amount of ABS
from PWRI collector with the increase of wind-face ratio, which coincides
with the observation findings of on-site RC structures. But , the declination
tendency of JIS type collector over wind-face ratio=0.2 reveals that theaccumulation of ABS on the surface of JIS type collector has its limit.
3.4 Feasibility of ABS collectors
PWRI

Air-borne Salt (mdd)

ˆˁˈ

JIS

ˆˁ˃
˅ˁˈ
˅ˁ˃
˄ˁˈ
˄ˁ˃
˃ˁˈ
˃ˁ˃
˃ˁ˃

˃ˁ˄

˃ˁ˅

˃ˁˆ

˃ˁˇ

Wind-face Ratio

Figure 12: Dependency of Air-borne Salt on Wind-face Ratio.
From all the above discussions, it can be first concluded that the ABS
trapped by PWRI collector is found to be lower than the ABS trapped by JIS
collector. In addition, from the analysis experience for both type collectors,
it is also found that PWRI collector seems to be fit for more-than-30-day
exposure test while JIS collector is only valid for less-than-15-day exposureCollector Comparison of Airborne Salt Attack for Marine Infrastructures in Taiwan

611

October 2008, Beijing, China

test. Furthermore, for considering the effect of rainfall and humidity, therecognized �washout effect� seems to be reflected in the result of JIS
collection. As for the dependency of collection effect on wind, the finding is
no clear difference between PWRI and JIS collectors. By integrating all thecomparison effects, although the short collection period is the maindrawback for JIS collector, JIS collector has higher priority to PWRI
collector on reflecting air-borne salt feature of on-site RC structures.
4. CONCLUSION
Through up-to-18 month exposure test, the collection effect of PWRI andJIS collectors on ABS was compared by means of geographical and weather
information. So far, by considering the dependency of ABS on distance toseashore, height of ABS collector, rainfall, temperature, humidity, windvelocity or wind-face ratio, JIS type collector seems to be suitable forreflecting the air-borne salt feature of on-site RC structures although theshort collection period of JIS type collector limits its use. As a result, how to
combining the advantage of JIS with the improved collection period of JIS
is the next research issue on on-site exposure test for air-borne salt.
REFERENCES
Bridge Sector of Public Work Research Institute, 1993. National Survey on
Air-Borne Salt (IV) – Distribution Characteristics of Air-borne Salt
and Wind, PWRI Publication, No.3175, pp. 1~26. (in Japanese)
Japan Weathering Test Center, 1998. JIS Z 2382 Measurement of Corrosion
Factors from Atmosphere. (in Japanese)
LIN, Y.Z., 2008. Performance-based design for anticorrosion of reinforced
concretes under air-borne salt attack, Master Thesis, National
Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology. (inTraditional Chinese)612

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

AN EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL
COMMUNITY HILL SLOPE INSTABILITYAROUND METROPOLITAN AREA
IN TAIWAN
KUO-HUNG TSENG
Associate Professor, Department of Construction,
National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Taiwan
bob@ccms.nkfust edu.tw
ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study is to find the effects of hazardous factors onhill slopes and then to develop a statistical model for the assessment ofcommunity hill slope instability around the Kaohsiung metropolitan area in
Taiwan. Field investigations on hill slope include failed and non-failed
slopes, and their surrounding slope stability measures are conducted for
200 sites. The data is collected from each site for the selected 11 affecting
factors including slope gradient, slope aspect, slope height, rock strata,
plant coverage, erosion condition, weathering condition, slope drainage,
toe cutting, slope seeping and slope maintenance, which are considered themain factors affecting the slope instability. Each affecting factor isquantified by using the dangerous index method. The statistical model wasdeveloped based on quantified values of each factor through thediscriminate analysis to identify the slope’s susceptible instability. The
model was verified from the 50 sets of data collected and the results
indicated that the accuracy to predict the slope failure is about 72% on thebasis of the selected affecting factors. It is believed that the proposal model
will provide a guideline for the city environment development in Kaohsiungcity government.
1. INTRODUCTION
The development of hillside community is one of the most important land
uses in the city of Taiwan. However, these hill slopes are located on theearthquake zone, attacked by the heavy rainfall from storms during eachsummer and often over-occupied with human activities, causing the hazards
of slopes to frequently occur and the safety of community residents isendangered. Therefore development of community on hill slopes around thecity has been a major concern for the city government. In recent years
Kaohsiung County Council has enthusiastically accelerated the developmentof industry and commerce which attracts numerous people from adjacentcities to crowd into county. This leads the density of population increased
drastically and causes the limited and usable lands of the county are
gradually of shortage. A tendency of developing hillsides is consequently
getting fast expending. However, the development of hillsides tends to613

October 2008, Beijing, China

diversity and complexity, including resorts, community housing, temples,orchards, schools, public facilities, and etc. The hillsides in the Kaohsiung
metropolitan area are located within the geological province of the Central
Range composed of fracture slates and of the Western Foothills composedof soft rocks such as conglomerate, sandstone, shale and mudstone. Due tothe complexity of geological structures, soft rocks appearing on the hillsides,
and intense rainfall within a short period, the hillsides in the area innately
tend to unfavorable stable. Because of overdevelopment and usage ofhillsides and lack of control to geological conditions and hydrogeology,
these trigger the several hillside damages occurred in the historic records.
These damages of hillsides threaten the prosperous development in the
Kaohsiung metropolitan area, safety of community residents and protectionof assets. It is therefore that the aim of this study attempts to find the effectsof hazardous factors on the community hillsides and to develop a statisticalmodel for the analysis of the potential hazardous hillsides in the Kaohsiungarea. The study is subsequently to be as a guideline of planning and designof hillsides stability for the local governments.
2. GEOMORPHOLOGICAL AND GEOLOGICAL SETTING
The community hillsides investigated in the study mainly located at Dashe,
Dashu, Yanchao and Chishan of Kaohsiung County as show in Figure1.
Dashe is located at central part of Kaohsiung plain,west bordered with
Nantzu, north bordered with Yanchao, west bordered with a small group ofhill to Dashu, and south bordered with Renwu. Guanginshan of northeastrn
Dashe appears at the end of Neimen Hill. The slope gradient is about 15°23° with elevation of 50-100 meters above sea level. The bedrock exposed
at Guanginshan is of Nanshihlan sandstone composed of thick-bedded, fine
to medium-grained sand stone and muddy sandstone with intercalation ofsandstone and shale. The rock belongs to weak and soft and presents a lower
resistance to abrasion and erosion. Dashu is located at a hillside south of the
Lingkou and west of the Gaobing stream. The highest land is at the border
between Dashe and Shengsian, with elevation of 225 meters above the sea
level. The northwest side is higher than the southeast side, and the mountainis stretching east to west. The geology is of red soil of Pleistocene and theNanshihlun sandstone consisted of mainly thick-beded carbonaceous shalesintercalated with thick bed of fine to medium-grained, poorly cemented
sandstone. Yanchao is located at central part of the Kaohsiung County, ajunction zone between Kaohsiung plain and Neiman Hill. The bedrock
exposed is a massive mudstone with age ranging from pliocene topleistoncene. The mudstones are consists of fine and loose cemented
particles. It usually suffers severe erosion that easily leads to steep channels
and abrupt slopes and looks like a piece of barren land. Because ofcontaining much inorganic salts that there are frost-like crystals which areunfavorable to plant-growth. Rock formations exposed in Chishan include
the Shinei formation of the Pliocene, Nanshiken formation of Plocene andDawo fine sandstone, Nanhua mudstone of Pliocene and Linko
conglomerate of Pleistocene. � Wang 1997 � Due to the complex and614

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different rock formation, the sandstone tends to more protuberant thanmudstone and forms a ridge. The mudstone suffers easily severe erosion andleads to deep and wide erosive channel. There are major faults exposed in
the vicinity of the area, including Chishan fault and Fengshan fault. The
Chishan fault is a major high angle reverse fault. It trends in a NE-SW
direction in the Kaohsiung-Pingtung area. The Fengshan fault trends in aclose north-south direction and is situated between the Fengshan hill and the
Pingtung plain.�Sun 1964�
The climate in these areas is tropical with average temperatures
ranging from between 18.6 and 28.7 degree Celsius, and average annual
rainfall is about 1500mm.

Figure 1�Locations of sites
3. METHODOLGY
Several factors may affect the slope instability. In general, it can beclassified two major categories, i.e. potential factors and induced factors.
Potential factors involve the factors that cause the slope instability fromslope itself, such as slope gradient, slope height, and etc. Induced factors
involve the factors that cause the slope instability from the external forces
such as earthquake, typhoons, rainfall and etc. Induced factors may be
associated with time and dynamic conditions such that an analysis of slope
stability leads to difficulties. Potential factors are easier to obtain in spatialconditions and are used to perform an assessment of the slope instability.
Hence, the data of the potential factors are used to conduct the statisticalanalysis in this study. A total of 200 sites of community hill slopes, locatedat Chishan, Yanchao, Dashe, and Dashu of the Kaohsiung County, isinvestigated. The data of affecting factors includes slope gradient, slope
aspect, slope height, erosion condition, plant coverage, weathering condition,
toe cutting, slope drainage, slope seeping, and slope maintenance, anddistance to fault. The total data sets have been divided into two parts. The

An Evaluation of Potential Community Hill Slope Instability around Metropolitan Area in Taiwan

615

October 2008, Beijing, China

first part containing 150 data sets out of 200 data sets has been used forstatistic analysis to develop a model to identify the slope instability. Rest of
50 data sets is used for validation purpose. These data sets can be referred
to work by Chen (2007).
3.1 Data collection of influential factors
The data of influential factors considered in hillsides is collected fromthe field. A total of 12 factors is preliminarily chosen and how to classify is
described as followsΚ
1΢Slope gradientΚThe slope gradient of each hillside is measured
by using a compass placed on the board on the board on the slope. It is
divided 5 gradesΚ<20°, 21°-30°, 31°-40°, 41°-60°, andЇ60°.
2΢Slope aspectΚThe slope aspect of each hillside is measured byusing a compass and is divided 4 gradesΚNW, NE, SW, and SE.
3΢Slope heightΚThe slope height is a vertical distance from thepoint observed to the top of the slope. It is divided 5 gradesΚ H<5m,
6m�H10m, 11m�H<15m, 15m�H<20m , Ї20m
4΢Rock stratumΚIt is obtained by pointing the coordinates, obtained
from GPS at fields, on the geological map. Most of rocks can be classified
sandstone, intercalation of sandstone and shale, conglomerates, andmudstone
5΢Plant coverageΚIt is observed by eyes based on the percentage ofarea planted and is divided 5 gradesΚvery denseΰЇ75иα, denseΰ51
и-75иα, mediumΰ26и-50иα,looseΰ11и-25иαand very looseΰ�10иα.
6΢Erosion condition�It is observed from the trace of washout
appeared on the slope and is divided 5 grades �none, slight, medium,severe, and completed erosion.
7΢ Weathering condition�It is based on ISRM classification of
weathered rocks and is divided 5 grades �none, low, moderate, high, andcompleted weather.
8΢Slope drainage�It is observed from the drainage structures anddrainage conditions at the slope and toe and is divided 5 grades�excellent,good, fair, poor and very poor.
9΢Slope seepingΚIt is observed whether the groundwater seeps out
from the slope and is divided 5 grades: dry, damp, seeping, and flowing .
10΢Toe cuttingΚIt is measured at the field and is divided 5 grades:H�1m, 1m< H�3m,3mІH5m, and H � 5m.
11΢Slope maintenanceΚIt is observed the conditions of retaining
structures or slope protection measures at the toe and slope and is divided 5
gradesΚexcellent, good, fair, poor and very poor.
12 ΢ Distance to fault Κ The Arc GIS incorporated with digital
geological map is used and measures a distance from a location investigatedto the adjacent fault. It is divided 5 gradesΚ І50 m, 51-200 m, 200-500 m,
500-1000 m, and Ї1000 m

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3.2 Factor ratings
After data of affecting factors for each hill slope is obtained, it issubsequently required to quantify each grade of the factor for a statisticalanalysis purpose. A method of dangerous indexΰJian 1992αis used to rateeach grade of the factor. Firstly, a ratio of failure, xi, is calculated as

xi �

ni
Ni

ΰ1α

where ni is the number of failure at the�th grade of factor and Ni is the total
number of failure at the �th grade of factor.
Secondly, the failure fraction, Si, is calculated as

Si �

xi
� xi

ΰ2α

Finally, the rating, D, of each factor classified is calculated asDi �

9�S i � S min �
�1�Smax � S min �

ΰ3αThe rating value of D is ranging from 1 to 10. Table 1 shows theresults of rating based on the method of dangerous index of 11 affecting
factors classified.
3.3 Multiple discriminant analysis

In order to identify the most influential factors on hill slope instability andquantify their relative contribution, a multiple discriminant analysis
ΰHuberty 1994, Kuo 2002α is performed. The data sets are first prepared
including 12 factors of 150 failed and non-failed slopes. The principal
component discriminant analysis, F test, allowed a preliminary selection of
the most significant variables. It is found that 11 factors out of 12 influential
factors input, including slope gradient, slope aspect, slope height, rockstratum, erosion condition, weathering degree, plant coverage, slope, toe
cutting, slope drainage, slope seeping, and slope maintenance, are statisticalsignificant except the factor of distance to fault. This may reasonably
explain that more than 1000 meters of the distance to fault are found in mostof hillsides investigated. This factor is naturally little of effects on thehillside stability and is not chosen in the analysis. These 11 factors aresubsequently used as input variables for the multiple discriminant analysis.
The discriminant functions are then obtained for different conditions ofslope instability, including non-failure, slight failure, moderate failure, andsevere failure. The coefficients of each discriminant function obtained fromanalysis are shown in Table 2.

An Evaluation of Potential Community Hill Slope Instability around Metropolitan Area in Taiwan

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Table 1: Criteria of factor ratings
Class

Factors
Slope gradient
Slope aspect
Slope heightRock stratum
Plant coverage

Erosioncondition
Weathering
condition
Slope drainage
Slope seeping
Toe cutting
SlopemaintenanceRatings
41°-60°

Њ61°

1
4.302
5.937
7.349
NW
NE
SW
1
4.499
8.2
0m-5m
6m-10m
11m-15m
16m-20m
1
2.344
4.049
10
Sandstone
Intercalation
conglomerateof sandstoneand shale
1
5.768
6.716
Њ76и
51и50и-26и
11и-25и
75и
1
2.631
3.461
7.218
none
slightmoderatesevere
1
1.701
3.279
8.378
none
low
moderate
high
1
3.328
4.763
7.226
excellent
good
fair
poor
1
2.307
2.659
8.944
dry
damp
seeping
1
2.069
7.232
none
1m~3m
4m~6m
7m~9m
1
3.854
4.512
6.958

10
SE
10
Њ21m
10
Mudstone

Љ20°

excellent
1

21°-30°31°-40°

good
2.265

fair
3.389

poor
6.062

10
Љ10и
10
completed10completed10very poor
10
flowing10
Њ10m
10very poor
10

The accuracy of the discriminant functions can be found in theanalysis that 82% of overall 150 hill slopes are successfully classified.
Finally, it is worth to know which factor would be the most influential on
the slope instability. According to the results of the analysis, the influential
factors contributing to slope instability are in order of slope seeping, plant
coverage, toe cutting, slope aspect, slope maintenance, erosion condition,slope gradient, weathering condition, slope drainage, rock stratum, andslope height.
Table 2:Discriminant function coefficient for 4 grade of slope failure
conditions
Failuredegree618

Factors
Slope gradientNon-failure
1.597

SlightFailure1.643

Moderate
Failure2.19

Severe Failure

Slope aspect

1.143

1.630

1.49

2.005

Slope height

0.701

1.030

0.824

1.989

Rock strata

1.681

1.820

1.974

2.564

Plant coverage

0.834

1.118

0.712

0.904

1.73

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ICUS Report 31
FailuredegreeFactors
Erosioncondition
Slope drainage

Non-failure
0.009

SlightFailure0.364

Moderate
Failure0.436

Severe Failure

0.352

0.364

0.312

0.335

Slope seeping

0.515

0.540

2.365

1.791

Weathering
condition
Toe cutting

0.769

1.063

0.854

1.456

-0.084-0.132-0.100-0.960

0.233

0.425

0.674

0.499

-19.742-29.592-40.798-51.411Slope
maintenanceconstant

0.840

3.4 Validation of discriminant model

The predicted model developed is verified on the data sets of 50 out of
200 sites investigated. The rating value of each factor for 50 hill slopes is
input the presented above 4 discriminant functions, respectively, theclassification of slope instability is determined by a maximum value
calculated from those functions. The results of analysis show that theaccuracy of the presented discriminate model is about 72% on the 50 hillslopes as shown in Figure 2. However, if the grades of slight failure,
moderate failure, and severe failure are combined as a failed, it is found thediscrimination accuracy is about 81% for non-failed hill slopes and about
66% for failed hill slopes.

25

No.of hill slope

20
15

observed
predicted

10
50

non-failure slight failuremoderate
failureseverefailureFigure 2�Comparison between observed and predicted hill slopes
4. CONCLUSONSThis study is focused on the affecting factors of investigation on thecommunity hillsides at Chishan, Dashu, Dashe, and Yanchao of theKaohsiung County. The ratings of each affecting factor are evaluated by

An Evaluation of Potential Community Hill Slope Instability around Metropolitan Area in Taiwan

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October 2008, Beijing, China

using a method of dangerous index. A model developed for the assessmentof the hill slope instability is based on a method of discriminate analysis.
The data of affecting factors is collected from the field investigation. The
affecting factors include the slope gradient, slope aspect, slope height,
erosion condition, plant coverage, rock strata,
weathering condition, toe
cutting, slope drainage, slope seeping, and slope maintenance. Data sets of
150 out of 200 are used to develop an assessment model and the data sets of
the rest are used to verify the model developed. The results show that theaccuracy of the developed model is about 82% on the training data sets. The
model was verified from the 50 data sets and the results indicated that theaccuracy to predict the slope failure is about 72%. The influential factors
contributing to slope instability are in order of slope seeping, plant coverage,
toe cutting, slope aspect, slope maintenance, erosion condition, slope
gradient, weathering condition, slope drainage, rock stratum, and slope
height.
REFERENCES
Chan, Y.C., 2007. The Study for Potential failure on Community hill slopes. Thesis
of Master of Science, National Kaohsiung First University of Science
Technology
Huberry, C.J., 1994. Applied Discriminant Analysis, John Wiley, New York, NY,
pp 182-208
Jian, L.B., 1992. Appliaction of Geographic Information System in the
Quantitative Assessment of Hillslope Quantitative Stability. Thesis ofMaster of
Science, National Chung Hsing University.ΰIn ChineseαKuo, R.B., 2002. A
Study on Determining Slope Stabilization Methods with Discriminant
Analysis. Thesis of Master of Science, National Taiwan University of
Science and Technology.ΰIn ChineseαLan, Y.S., 1999. Study on Estimating the Probability of Slope Land slide byDiscriminate Analysis. Thesis of Master of Science, National Taiwan
University of Science and Technology.ΰIn ChineseαSun, S.C., 1964. Photogeological Study of the Taiwan-Kaohsiung Coastal PlainArea, Taiwan, Petroleum Geology of Taiwan, No.3. pp 39-51.
Wang, S.H., 1997. The Characteristic of the Disasters of Environmental Geology at
Chyi-Shan Area, Thesis of Master of Science, National Cheng Kung
University.ΰIn Chineseα620

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

INFLUENCE OF INITIAL CURING ON
CHLORIDE PENETRATINGCHARACTERISTICS IN CONCRETEEXPOSED TO DIFFERENT MARINEENVIRONMENTWEN XUE 1, JIANGUO DAI 2,
HIROSHI YOKOTA 2 and WEILING JIN 1
1
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University,
Zhejiang 310027, China;
2Port and Airport Research Institute, Japan.
xuewen2006@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Concrete durability is influenced by both the initial curing condition
and the following exposure environment besides the constituents of concreteitself. In this contribution, 15 concrete cylinders were cast and cured in fiveconditions characterized with different humidity (air-curing and watercuring) and curing durations (1d, 5d and 14d). After curing, all thecylinders were exposed separately under three kinds of marine environment
including splash zone, tide zone and immersion zone for 6 months. Then the
total chloride contents in concrete were measured using the automated ionselective electrode method. The apparent chloride diffusion coefficient Da
and surface chloride content C0 were obtained by fitting the chloride
concentration profiles with the Fick’s second law. The testing results showthat the initial saturated curing has a great impact on reducing the earlystage chloride absorption. Given a specific environment the value of C0
tends to be low when saturated curing was fully applied at the early age. On
the other hand, exposure environment influences not only the accumulationof chloride on the surface but also the value of Da. A severer cyclic wet-dry
environment results in a higher chloride accumulation on the surface layer
but a lower Da value. In conclusion, a refined durability design requiresconsidering the effects of both the initial curing conditions and the following
exposure environment. Moreover, the apparent chloride diffusion coefficient
Da and surface chloride content C0 cannot be treated as two independent
design parameters for a certain service environment.
1. INTRODUCTION
Concrete durability is influenced by both the initial curing condition andexposure environment besides the constituents of concrete itself. It wasreported that the compressive strength of silica fume concrete cured at�
65% RH was lower than that cured at 100% RH (Atis, 2005). The pore
structures were improved with the fulfilling of curing so that the permeating621

October 2008, Beijing, Chinaof gas or liquid was blocked (Nasir, 2004). Ramezanianpour (1995)
measured the electric flux of concrete cured under same humidity but
different durations through ASTM C1202 method and found that longcuring duration helped to reduce the electric flux of concrete. Khatib (1999)
discussed the positive impact of long duration and high humidity of curingon the concrete permeability through an immersion testing. Jaegermann(1990) deposited the concrete which was cured under different durations to
the atmosphere by the seashore of Mediterranean for 3 years, and found thatthe sufficient initial curing increased the chloride resistance of concrete
significantly at the early period of exposure.
The strong relationship between initial curing conditions and theconcrete durability performance had been studied, while for the real coastal
concrete infrastructures, the durability is affected by the marine
environment as well. However, there are few researches discussing about
the coupling effects of initial curing condition and exposure environment
imposed on the chloride penetrating characteristics in concrete recently.
In this contribution, fifteen concrete cylinders were cast and cured infive conditions characterized by different humidity (air-curing and watercuring) and curing durations (one day, five days and fourteen days). After
curing all the cylinders were exposed into three kinds of marine
environment including splash zone, tide zone and immersion zone
separately for six months. The coupling effect of initial curing condition andfollowing exposure environment on the chloride penetrating characteristics
in concrete was discussed.
2. EXPERIMENT
2.1

Materials

Cylinder specimens were cast (Ø100mm � 200mm in plastic moulds.
The materials were produced in Japan. The details of concrete mix and theaggregate properties are displayed in Table1 and Table2.
Table1. Concrete mix�kg/m3�
W/C

Cement

Water

Sand

Gravel

55.5%

318

176

848

950

Note: Max size of gravel=20mm; Max size of sand=5mm.

Water
Reducer
3.18

Table2. Aggregate properties

Sand
GravelSpecific gravity
�kg/m3�
2.62
2.69

Absorption
(%)
1.21
0.34

S/(S+G)
(%)
47.9

Slump
(mm)
18cm

Fineness modulus
2.67
6.46

The specimens were kept in an indoor environment with thetemperature of 23oC and 75% RH on average for 24hours after casting. Twobottoms of each specimen were sealed with epoxy right after curing wasover, and the cylinder surface was to be exposed to the seawater.

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2.2

Initial curing conditions

Five different curing conditions were adopted. Details of curingconditions are given as below.
(1) The group of specimens which was exposed into real marine
environments right after demoulding was coded as A1.
(2) The group of specimens which was covered by wet burlap andplaced in the curing room of constantly 25oC and 50% RH for five days wascoded as A5.
(3) One group of specimens were cured in the same condition as A5
for the first five days after demoulding. Then the wet burlap sheet wasremoved and the concrete was deposited in the same room as A5 for furthernight days. This group was coded as A14.
(4) Specimens which were cured under fresh water for five days in thesame room as A5 and A14 were coded as W5.
(5) Specimens which were cured under fresh water for fourteen daysin the same room as W5 were coded as W14.
2.3

Exposure environment

The specimens were exposed in splash zone, tide zone and immersion
zone separately for six months. The exposure site adopted in this study was
located by the Kurihama Bay, Japan. The temperature and humidity
variation of this area during the whole exposure period was recorded (seeFigure1).

70

20

60

o

Temperature ( C)

80

50

15

40

10

30

5

Temperature

20

RH

10

0

Relative Humidity (%)

25

0
Oct.

Nov. Dec.

Jan� Feb. Mar.
Month

Apr.

Figure 1: Variation of temperature and RH during the whole
exposure period
Tide zone and immersion zone were located in the same pool about
2.5m deep. Seawater from the bay was pumped in and drained out
automatically at an interval of six hours (see Figure2). The specimens in theimmersion zone were under seawater all the time, and those in the tide zone
were subjected to the wet-dry cycle twice a day at the ratio of 1:1. Splash
zone was located in the atmosphere by the seaside. The seawater shower inthis area was automatically controlled at an interval of eight hours (seeFigure3). The wet-dry ratio was 1:2.

Influence of Initial Curing on Chloride Penetrating Characteristics in Concrete Exposed to Different Marine
Environment623

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 2: Seawater level variation and specimens’ locationin Tide and immersion zones

Figure 3: Showering controlled schedule in Splash zone
2.4

Test method

After six months exposure, the two epoxy-sealed bottoms of eachcylinder were cut off at the thickness of 30mm and the left cylinder wascentral sliced into a 10-mm-thick piece along the diameter. The slice wasfurther cut into strips at the depth of 5mm, 10mm, 15mm, 20mm, 30mm,
40mm, and 50mm from the surface. All the samples were dried in thechamber of 40oC and 100%RH for 24h and powdered aftermath. The
automated ion-selective electrode method was used to measure the total
chloride content of each concrete sample. The apparent chloride diffusion
coefficient Da and surface chloride content C0 were obtained by fitting thechloride concentration profiles with the Fick’s second law (see Equation1).
��
���
�
x
��
C ( x, t ) � C 0 s �1 � erf ������ 2 Da � t ���(1)

Where, C ( x, t ) is the chloride concentration at a depth x (mm) at time t(year); C0 s is the chloride concentration at the surface which is derived from
regression; erf is the error function; Da is the apparent diffusion coefficient(cm2/s).

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3. TESTING RESULTS
3.1 Chloride concentration profiles

Figure4 illustrates the chloride concentration distribution in eachspecimen. Using these concentration values the apparent diffusion
coefficient and surface chloride content were obtained from Equation 1 (seeTable3, Figure5 and Figure6). To compare the amount of chloride
penetrating in concrete quantitatively, the values of total chloride content Ct
were calculated through computing the area below profiles (see Table3).
In the case of W14, the chloride concentration at each depth was
lower than all the other concrete exposed in the same environment,
correspondingly the value of Ct was the lowest. Chloride ions cumulated
significantly in the surface layer of A1. For the concrete cured under thesame condition but exposed in different environments, the value of C0 in
splash zone was the highest while its Da value was the lowest (see Table3).
Tidal zone

Immersion zone
A1

20

Chloride content (kg/m3)

Chloride content(kg/m3)

25

A5
A14

15

W5

10

W14

5
0

5

10

15

20

30

40

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

A1
A5
A14
W5
W14

5

60

10

15

20

30

40

60

Depth (mm)Depth(mm)Splash zone
Chloride content(kg/m3)

40

A1

35

A5

30

A14

25

W5

20

W14

15
10
5
0
5

10

15

20

30

40

60

Depth(mm)Figure 4: Chloride concentration distribution of concrete

Influence of Initial Curing on Chloride Penetrating Characteristics in Concrete Exposed to Different Marine
Environment
625

Surface chloride content (kg/m3)

October 2008, Beijing, China
C0

60
A1
A5
W5
A14
W14

50
40
30
20
10
0

Immersion
Tidal
SplashExposure environments

Figure5 : Surface Chloride content
Da

Apparent chloride diffusion
coefficient (E-08cm2/s)

25

A1

20

A5
W5

15

A14
W14

10
5
0

Immersion
Tidal
SplashExposure environment

Figure 6 :: Apparent D value
Table3. Surface chloride content and Apparent chloride diffusion coefficient
Exposure

CuringCuringdurations

Specimen

C0

Da

Ct

environments

regimes(days)

codes(kg/m3)(kg/m3)

1
5
14
5
14
1
5
14
5
14
1
5
14
5

A1
A5
A14
W5
W14
A1
A5
A14
W5
W14
A1
A5
A14
W5

19.92
14.73
12.93
17.51
13.34
55.44
25.87
39.96
27.22
12.71
27.55
13.70
12.58
13.24

(E-08
cm2/s)
7.42
7.48
7.29
5.49
4.25
3.04
7.82
2.19
7.01
4.65
4.14
16.40
36.60
13.70

14
W14
11.41
6.56
Note: C0�surface chloride content; Da� apparent diffusion coefficient and
Ct = total chloride ions penetrated into concrete.

27.85

Air
Tide zone
Water
Air
Splash zone
Water
Air
Immersion zone
Water

626

52.74
39.88
30.21
40.99
27.20
102.30
60.81
62.42
68.44
25.96
62.09
46.21
43.35
42.92

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3.2 Modified apparent diffusion coefficient

The transferring mechanism of chloride in the concrete surface wascomplicated (Zhangyi, 2008) and the capillary suction dominates thechloride moving in the surface layer of about 15mm in depth (Nilson, 2003).
On the purpose of studying diffusion mechanism only, the first point at thedepth of 5mm of each profile was removed and the modified Da values were
calculated from Equation 1 (see Table4, Figure7). The results indicated thatmodified Da values of concrete cured under same condition were in thesequence of Immersion> Tide> Splash.
Table4: Modified Da (E-08cm2/s)
Tide zone

Splash zone

A1

31.40

18.40

15.20

A5

25.20

16.40

7.75

W5

18.60

13.70

13.90

A14

36.60

7.77

9.64

W14

14.00

11.80

7.97

Chloride apparent diffusion
coefficient (E-08cm2/s)

Immersion zone

Modified Da

35

A1
A5

30
25

W5
A14
W14

20
15
10
5
0
Immersion

Tide

SplashExposure environments

Figure 7: Modified Da
4. DISCUSSION

It could be understood from the exposure testing data that the surface
chloride content C0 and the apparent diffusion coefficient Da were
influenced by both initial curing conditions and following exposure
environments.
4.1 Influence of initial curing conditions

The deduced surface chloride content C0 obtained from the chloride
concentration profiles were shown in Figure6. The most severe chloride
Influence of Initial Curing on Chloride Penetrating Characteristics in Concrete Exposed to Different Marine
Environment627

October 2008, Beijing, China

accumulation was found in the surface layer of concrete A1 in eachexposure environment and the C0 value of W14 was the lowest. It’s known
that during the first three days of hydration, the big pores with the size
larger than 2000Å were more than 98% of all the pores and the pore
networks were almost connected. With the proceeding of sufficient curing,
the pore size and the connectivity of pore network were improved (Yao,2007). In the case of A1, concrete wasn’t cured after demoulding in anormal way. Those big and connected pores resulted in the initial suction ofchloride when initially contacting with seawater. The series of A5, W5, A14
and W14 were cured in relatively sufficient ways. Those four groups ofconcrete could be denser than A1 at the surface layer so that the initialsuction effect through big and connected pores was weakened.
Besides the initial chloride suction through big pores in the surface
layer, capillary suction was another dominating way of chloride penetrating
into concrete. The drier the concrete surface was, the easier the capillarysuction occurred and it would continue until the surface layer got saturated(Jin, 2002). In the case of W14, the fourteen days 100% RH curingcondition produced the saturated surface layer of the concrete so that thecapillary suction was not serious. This situation was found in all of the three
exposure environments as well.
The modified apparent diffusion coefficient Da was reduced
significantly with the fulfilling of saturated curing. Da value of W14 inimmersion zone was only half to A1 and was also lower than other series ofconcrete. The similar sequence of Da was found in the other twoenvironments. This could be understood that W14 was cured under analmost saturated condition, which helped to form a denser inner microstructure to prevent the chloride diffusing in concrete, for fourteen days. As
a result the value of Da was lower.
4.2 Influence of exposure environment

Comparing the data of C0 in Figure6, it could be found that the wetdry cycle of the exposure environment was another reason for the chloride
accumulation in the surface layer. For the concrete cured under the same
condition, the initial saturation and the inner structure were almost the same.
Therefore, the initial suction effects of the concrete were not in big
difference when exposed into different environments. The ratio of wet-dry
cycle in splash zone was 1:2 which was severer than the tide zone. During
the period without seawater shower, specimens in splash zone were exposedto the atmosphere and suffered from air-drying. The pore water especially inthe surface layer vaporized easily so that the pore saturation reduced. Thus,
chloride ions were easily sucked into concrete by capillary effect when theseawater shower started again. Suction effect was an irreversible process.
The severer the wet-dry cycle was, the worse the chloride accumulation
would be.
Da value was influenced by the wet-dry cycle of the exposure
environment significantly as well. The diffusion coefficient of same
concrete exposed in different environment was sequenced as
Immersion>Tide>Splash (see Figure7). Although the values of C0 and Ct of
the concrete in splash zone were higher than those of other concrete, the Da

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value of this group was the lowest. It could be distributed to the lack oftransferring media for chloride diffusion. In the case of splash zone,
concrete was air-dried for 2/3 of the whole exposure duration. The
evaporation of the pore water reduced the amount of transferring media forchloride diffusion directly. While in tide zone, the wet-dry ratio was 1:1
which was much easer than splash zone was. Furthermore, tide zone was
located in the same seawater pool with immersion zone, during the dry
period specimens were exposed to a relatively moist environment but
weren’t subjected to air-drying directly. This circumstance was able toproduce a moist inner environment of concrete and helped the chloride totransfer easily. Taking A14 series for instance, for the same diffusing depth
between X1 and X2 (see Figure8), the transferred ratio of chloride (C3/C2) inthe concrete in tide zone was larger than in splash zone (C2/C3), whichmeant chloride diffused relatively easier in tide zone concrete than in splash
zone concrete. In the case of immersion zone, the sufficient and stablemoisture supply provided sufficient transferring media for chloride diffusing.
Therefore, the Da value of concrete exposed in tide zone could be larger thanin splash zone.
Based on the analyzing above, it could be concluded that Da was anindex describing the ability of chloride diffusion in concrete. If chloride
moving was promoted by the plenteous of pore water, Da value wasrelatively large. Contrarily, Da value decreased when the transferring mediaof pore water was insufficient.

Chloride content(% concrete)

A14
1.200
1.000

A14T

0.800

A14S
A14I

0.600
0.400

C1

C2
C3

0.200
0.000
5

10

15

20

30

X1

X2

Depth(mm)4060Figure 8: Chloride diffusion ability
5. CONCLUSION

Based on the scope of this study, the following conclusions are made:1. For the concrete exposed in marine environment, the initialsaturated curing has effects on reducing the surface chloride accumulationand preventing chloride diffusing in concrete. These effects are moresignificant in the splash zone.

Influence of Initial Curing on Chloride Penetrating Characteristics in Concrete Exposed to Different Marine
Environment629

October 2008, Beijing, China

2. For the same concrete exposed in those three environments, thesequence of C0 is Splash zone> Tide zone> Immersion zone; the values of
Da are sequenced as Immersion >Tide> Splash.
3. The severe wet-dry cycle is the other reason for the surface chloride
accumulation and causes the reduction of Da.
4. Da is the index describing the relative diffusing ability of chloride inconcrete. It cannot be used to evaluate the concrete durability state
individually.
5. The coupling effect of initial curing condition and following
exposure environment should be taken into account in the durability designfor concrete structure located in marine environment.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are very appreciated for the financial support from Chinese
Scholarship Council; Joint research project supported by National Science
Foundation of China and Japan Science Promotion Society.
REFERENCES

Atis, C. D., Ozcan, F., 2005. Influence of dry and wet curing conditions oncompressive strength of silica fume concrete. Building andenvironment 40,1678-1683.
Nasir Shafiq, Cabrera, J.G., 2004. Effects of initial curing condition on thefluid transport properties in OPC and Fly ash blended cement concrete.
Cement and concrete composites 26, 381-387.
Ramezanianpour, A.A, 1995. Effect of curing on the compressive strength,
resistance to chloride ion penetration and porosity of concrete
incorporating slag, fly ash or silica fume. Cement and concrete
composites 17,125-133.
Khatib, J.M., Mangat, P.S., 1999. Influence of super plasticizer and curing
on porosity and pore structure of cement paste. Cement and concrete
composites 21,431-437.
Jaegermann, C., 1990. Effect of water-cement ratio and curing on chloride
penetration into concrete exposed to Mediterranean Sea climate. ACIMaterials 84,333-339.
Zhangyi. Chloride transportation model and the appilication[D],2008..Zhejiang University, China.
Yao, C.J.. Penetration Laws of Chloride Ions in Concrete Infrastructures at
Coastal Ports [D]. 2007. Zhejiang University, China.
Nilson, H., David Darwin, and Charles Dolan., 2003. McGraw Hill Higher
Education: Design of Concrete Structures [M].
Jin,W.L.,Zhao,Y.X.,2002. Science Press: Durability of Concrete Structures
[M].

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SEISMIC PERFORMANCE OFWOODEN BUILDINGS IN JAPANMIKIO KOSHIHARA
Assoc. Professor, Institute of Industrial Science,
the University of Tokyo, Japan
kos@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTThe Japan has a longstanding heritage of wooden houses. At the sametime, Japan is a country beset by earthquakes. Wooden houses in Japan
have suffered great damage caused by strong earthquakes. In the 1995
earthquake in Kobe, a great number of detached wooden houses weredestroyed. Even in Tokyo, there are today five million wooden houses. Forty
percent of the existing wooden houses in Japan, and ninety percent of thembuilt before 1981 have insufficient protection against seismic events. There
are useful reinforcement methods for these insufficient wooden houses, butthey have not been popularized because of a low sense of imminent crisis
about earthquakes. It is important to cultivate the minds of these
homeowners about the danger of earthquake so a good housing stock can beprotected.
1. INTRODUCTION
Japan has a longstanding heritage of wooden houses. At the same time,
Japan is a country beset by earthquakes. Wooden houses in Japan havesuffered great damages caused by strong earthquakes. In the 1995
earthquake in Kobe, a great number of wooden houses was destroyed andmore than 5,000 human lives were lost. This paper presents an overall
survey of wooden houses mainly in Japan, focusing on their seismic
performance.
2. CATEGORIES OF WOODEN HOUSES IN JAPAN2.1

Seismic Elements and Design Method for Wooden Buildings

As shown in Table 1, there are many types of wooden buildings inJapan. They are different in terms of seismic elements and how each seismic
design method is applied.
2.2

Traditional Wooden Buildings

The first category, traditional wooden buildings, includes temples,shrines and old folk houses (Figure 1). However, at present very few are
newly constructed of wood.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

Table 1: Categories of Wooden Buildings and Design Method
Type of Buildings
and Construction
Traditional
WoodenBuildings
Detached
Wooden Houses
Heavy Timber
Structure

Seismic Design

Shrine, Temple,
PagodaFolk House
Conventional
Two-by-Four
PrefabricatedMoment-FramesystemOrdinary FrameLong Spanor Space Frame

High-rise Wooden Building

2.3

Seismic
Elements

Seismic
Design Method

frame, walland rocking effect

not applicableor special analysis

shear wall
(bracing or board)
moment resisting
frame, truss, etc.
moment resisting
frame, shear
walls, etc.

Effective Wall
Length Method
special analysis
Working Stress(Allowable Stress)
Design Method
Performance- Based
Design Method

Detached Wooden Houses

The second category includes single-family detached wooden houses.
Japan has a stock of about 30 million units, and 600 thousand units are
newly constructed every year. This category can be divided into four types
according to the classification of construction method: conventional
construction, two-by-four system, prefabricated houses and moment-frame
system.
The conventional construction method was derived from traditional
construction methods (Figure 2(1)). The structural system of both methods
has posts and beams. Houses of this type account for the largest share (60percent) among wooden detached houses.
The two-by-four system (Figure 2(2)) was introduced from North
America, where its original system is the most common construction
method and is called light-frame construction or platform construction. The
name "two-by-four" comes from the sectional size of dimension lumber(approximately two inches by four inches). This structural system consistsof walls with nailed boards.
There are various systems of prefabricated wooden houses, but themost popular system is a panelized one (Figure 2(3)). Walls, roofs, andfloors are made of wood panels with glued boards, and its structural system
is based on these panel elements.
Recently some houses have been constructed with a moment-resisting
frame. (Figure 2(4))

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ICUS Report 31(1) Traditional Wooden Building(2) Traditional Wooden Houses
Figure 1: Traditional Wooden Buildings(1) Conventional construction(2)Two by four Houses system(3) Prefabricated Houses(4) Moment frame system
Figure 2: Detached Wooden Houses(1) Heavy Timber Structure(2) 5storied Wooden Building
Figure 3: Heavy Timber Structures
2.4 Heavy Timber Structure
The third category is heavy timber structure, used for example, tobuild schools, gymnasiums and museums (Figure 3(1)). After around 1960
this type was replaced by steel structure. However, quite a few heavy timber

Seismic Performance of Wooden Buildings in Japan

633

October 2008, Beijing, Chinabuildings have been built after around 1980. There are great varieties in the
structural system of heavy timber structure. Moment- resisting frames andtrusses are widely used for ordinary buildings such as schools, and spaceframes are often employed for big buildings such as gymnasiums. From2000 we have been able to build fireproof wooden structures. For example,
a new five-story wooden building has been built in Kanazawa (Figure 3 (2)).
This building was built by a wooden hybrid system whose elements,
columns, and beams are wood-inserted steel bars or steel plates.
3. HISTORIES OF DAMAGES DUE TO EARTHQUAKE
Many earthquakes have occurred in and around Japan, and many typhoons
have also besieged her in the past. Some of them resulted in a great amountof damage to wooden buildings, with many human lives lost. Table 2 showssuch disastrous earthquakes and typhoons.
The 1981 Nohbi Earthquake, which occurred in the middle of themain island of Japan, was a very big one with estimated magnitude of 8.0 on
the Richter scale. Most wooden buildings at the time were built bycarpenters using traditional construction methods. After the earthquake,scientific research on the seismic design of buildings was initiated.
Next in intensity was the 1923 Kanto Earthquake that hit Tokyo andthe metropolitan area of Japan. The disastrous earthquake caused greatdamage to buildings as well as loss of human lives. The first regulations on
seismic design were introduced into Japanese building law after thisearthquake: a seismic coefficient of 0.1 for seismic design was adopted.
However, only the following stipulation was added at the time: that somebracings should be installed in wooden buildings. Accordingly, mostwooden houses did not have to install such bracings.
The 1948 Fukui Earthquake occurred in a rural district, but many
people lost their lives mainly due to the collapse of detached wooden houses.
The investigation of the damage showed that the degree of the damage towooden houses had a strong correlation with the shear wall ratio of thehouse. The wall ratio is defined as the amount of walls in length in the unit
area of the floor. The result was taken into consideration when the newbuilding law was established in 1950.
The Niigata, Tokachi-oki, and Miyagiken-oki earthquakes were big
ones that resulted in great damage to buildings, especially reinforced
concrete structures. Wooden houses also suffered damage, but the damage
was not so serious. It looked as if Japanese wooden houses had finallybecome strong enough to survive severe earthquakes.
However, such an optimistic view was betrayed by the 1995
Hyogoken-nambu Earthquake, which is also known as the Kobe Earthquake.
About 100,000 buildings, including wooden houses, were completely
destroyed (Figure 4) and more than 5,000 people were killed. It is estimatedthat about 80 percent of them lost their lives because of the collapse ofwooden houses. Various investigations and researches have been made after
the earthquake. Some results were taken into account in the revision processof the building law in 1998. After the Kobe Earthquake, many disastrous
earthquakes have occurred.

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Table 2: Major disastrous earthquakes in Japan (after Meiji restoration)
Year
1981
1923
1934
1948
1964
1968
1978
1995
2004

Earthquake and Typhoon
Nohbi Earthquake
Kanto Earthquake
Muroto Typhoon
Fukui Earthquake
Niigata Earthquake
Tokachi-oki Earthquake
Miyagiken-oki Earthquake
Hyogoken-nambu Earthquake
Niigataken-chuetsu Earthquake

Damage220,000
254,000
93,00048,000
9,000
4,000
7,000
240,000
17,000Casualty
7,273
142,000
2,702
3,769
26
52
28
6,433
65

1995 Hyogoken-nambu
2004 Niigataken-chuetsu
Earthquake
Earthquake
Figure 4: Damage to Wooden Houses in Japan
4. SEISMIC DESIGN METHODS FOR WOODEN BUILDINGS
4.1 History of design methods
The provision of seismic design for structures was introduced inJapanese building law for the first time in 1924, right after the great Kanto
Earthquake. However, detailed design method for wooden buildings was not
introduced until 1950, when the building standards law was established.
Since then, the allowable-stress design method is applied to ordinary
wooden buildings and the effective wall-length method is applied todetached small wooden houses.
The effective wall-length method is still used today for its simplicity.
The numerical values of the coefficient used in this method have changed
several times, and the numerical values at present were stated in the revisionof the building standards law in 2000. The load-carrying capacity method
was introduced in the 1980 revision. However, it had rarely been used forwooden buildings, because the number of large wooden buildings thatshould be designed by the method was small.
The performance-based design method was introduced into thebuilding standards law in 1998, under the heading of “Calculation of
Response and Limit Strength.”

Seismic Performance of Wooden Buildings in Japan

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October 2008, Beijing, China

4.2 Effective wall-length method
The effective wall-length method consists of two components: therequired ratio of wall length and the resistance factor of shear wall. The
required ratio of wall length, p, was determined based on the assumptionthat the weight of each part (roof, wall, and floor) is the same in typicalwooden houses and that the design base shear coefficient is 0.2 according to
the minimum requirement in the building standards law. The value ofresistance factor of a shear wall, q, was determined based on racking tests.
The following relationship should be satisfied in the seismic design of every
wooden house.
wherep�A��(q�l)(1)

p = required ratio of wall length (cm/m2, Table 3)
A = area of the floor (m2)q = resistance factor of each shear wall (Table 4)
l = real length of shear wall (cm)
Table 3: Required Ratio of Wall Length p(cm/m2)
Story

SingleTwo storied

Storied

st

1
story

nd

2
story

st

1
story

2nd
story

3rd
story

Heavy(Clay tile)

15

33

21

50

39

24

Light(Metal plate)

11

29

15

46

34

18

Roof

Three storied

Table 4: Resistance Factor of Wall q (Examples)Type of Wall
Mud WallResistance Factor
0.5

15×90 mm

1.0

30×90

1.5

45×90

2.0

90×90
Plywood t�12mm

3.0
2.5

OSB t�12mm

1.0

Gypsum board t�12mm

1.0

Bracing

In the above expression, p�A corresponds to the earthquake forceand �(q�l) corresponds to the resistance.
In the revision of the building standards law in 2000 two design
techniques were introduced clearly. One is the design technique for theeffect of eccentricity and the other is the design technique for the joint of the
top and bottom of columns with wall.

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In Japan wooden detached houses have been designed not only by
structural engineers but also carpenters. This is why the very simple design
method of effective wall length is needed.
4.3 Allowable-stress design method
The allowable-stress design method has been used for bigger
buildings, such as schools and offices. Recently this method has been used
for wooden detached houses, too. There are moment-resisting frames asseismic elements, but these are not estimated in the effective wall-length
method. The standard seismic base shear coefficient is 0.2. The stress in themembers and joints are checked for long-term and short-term loads.
4.4 Load-carrying capacity method
In the revision of the Building Standard Law in 1980, load-carrying
capacity method (the method used to examine the performance against very
severe earthquakes) was introduced. The method is based on theapproximate relationship between the linear response and the nonlinear
response. In any approximation, the energy of linear response and that ofnonlinear response are regarded equal. The seismic base-shear coefficientfor very severe earthquakes is 1.0. The design seismic base shear coefficient
could be decreased according to the ductility of the structure.
4.5 Performance-based design method
The performance-based design method (“Calculation of Response andLimit Strength”) introduced in the recent revision of the Building Standard
Law in 1998 is based on the approximate relationship between the linear
response and nonlinear response, in which the nonlinear response isreplaced by the equivalent linear response. So far, very few woodenbuildings have been designed by this method, because it is not yet popularamong structural engineers and the data for it are not enough for practicaluse.
5. SESMIC CAPACITY EVALUATION
5.1 Revaluation of Traditional Wooden Building
Traditional wooden buildings such as shrines and temples are notengineered structures. Some of them were destroyed by earthquake(Figure5), but many of them have survived severe earthquakes. Some
researches are being made on the structural behavior of them by the modern
techniques of earthquake engineering.

Seismic Performance of Wooden Buildings in Japan

637

October 2008, Beijing, China

Kenchoji-temple
Enkakuji-temple
Figure 5: Damage of Traditional Wooden Structure
on 1923 Kanto Earthquake
The structure of traditional wooden buildings consists of columns andbeams. However, the frame of columns and beams was not structure strong
enough to resist horizontal force caused by earthquakes. Therefore, "Nuki"
was introduced to reinforce the frame in the medieval age (around 1200
AD). “Nuki” is a horizontal member that penetrates a column and fastenedwith wedges. “Nuki” still plays a very important role in newly built temples
and shrines. Mud walls, rocking effect of columns and “Kumimono”(bracket complex) were considered as seismic elements.
Applying special seismic design method, “Performance Based Design
Method”, “Working Stress Design Method” and etc., seismic capacity ofthese traditional wooden buildings were evaluated. Some buildings were
reinforced by these design method (Figure 6).

Folk House (Hirai-House)

Reinforcement by steel bracings

Reinforcement by Plywood Wall
Reinforcement of Joints
Figure6: Seismic Reinforcement of Folk House

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5.2 Existing Wooden Houses
In Recent Earthquakes, the old small houses damaged very much. On
Kobe Earthquake, 80% of deaths in the earthquake were caused by damagesof old small houses that built by wood frames or light steel frames. Now, inJapan, there are many houses of old and poor quality. The houses werecalled existing ineligible houses. It is required to make diagnoses on oldhouses. As results of diagnoses, the house reinforcement might berecommended. In Japan, many local governments promote the seismic
diagnosis and seismic reinforcement. However, many residents don’t intend
to try requesting diagnosis and reinforcement for his house. Many people
are wondering the governmental warning of the great earthquake hit to his
house in its life duration. If the possibilities of strong earthquake hits were
given in stochastic value, the meaning of value would be vague andunreliable. The residents have attachments on their existing houses. The
elderly people will take much effort to settle in the new house. The practiceof seismic retrofit would depend on the philosophy of residents. There aremany issues in the promotion of the existing house reinforcement. The
seismic engineer must present the reliable and economic seismic diagnosis
and reinforcement methods for the existing wood houses. But some
simplified diagnosis method like “Effective Wall Length Method” isrequired for carpenters and house builder who diagnose houses.
The other sides, the seismic capacity evaluation of existing wooden
house were revised in 2004 and many reinforcement methods aredeveloping. Figure7 shows some methods of the existing housereinforcement.

Wall with Oil Dumper

Steel Bracing

Steel Pole

DumperFigure7: Existing House Reinforcement

Seismic Performance of Wooden Buildings in Japan639

October 2008, Beijing, China

6. CONCLUSION
To upgrade the seismic performance of wooden buildings, different ways
should be taken according to the category of the building; some simplified
design method is required for detached wooden small houses and moresophisticated method could be used for traditional wooden buildings.
Researches on both aspects should be made.

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TRIAL TEST ON THE EVALUATION OF
SOIL CEMENTATION GENERATED BY THE
FUNCTION OF MICROORGANISMDAISUKE SUGIMOTO1 and REIKO KUWANO2
1
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japanmotto@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2
International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering,
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japankuwano@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTA new technique of ground improvement by the microbial function has
been recently proposed, in which soil cementation can be generated byintroducing calcium, organic matter and microorganism into soil. In thisstudy, a trial test was performed in order to evaluate the degree of soil
cementation generated by the microbial function, using Trigger andAccelerometer method (TA method) for the measurement of shear wave
velocities transmitted in a specimen.
Notable change in shear wave velocities was observed during the test,
implying that the TA method is capable of assessing the degree of
cementation developed in soil in the non-destructive manner.
1. INTRODUCTION
Loose sandy soils are vulnerable to earthquakes, as they would be liquefied
when they are saturated. When sandy backfill of buried pipe is insufficiently
compacted and the buried pipe is broken, some amount of the backfill sandwould be flown out of the breakage and surrounding ground would beloosened. Both phenomena can be prevented if some cementation isdeveloped in the soil.
In order to improve soil, chemical agent such as cement or lime isgenerally added to the soil. Instead, a new environment friendly technique
has been recently proposed to improve soil by the function of microbe.
Kawasaki et al. (2006) reported that the permeability of sandy soil could belowered by the generation of calcium carbonate, introducing yeast fungi,
organic matters and calcium into soil. Hata et al. (2008) proposed in-situ
permeability control using microbial cementation, showing that microbial
analysis using molecular techniques is effective for the monitoring andmanagement of the calcium carbonate precipitation process. However, thephysical and mechanical properties of cemented soil have not been wellunderstood. In this study, the degree of cementation in sand specimen intriaxial test was evaluated by the change of shear wave velocity measured
by Trigger and Accelerometer method.

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October 2008, Beijing, China

2. MICOBIAL CEMENTATION
When appropriate nutrition is given to microorganism in soil, they generate
carbon dioxide by respiration, which turns to be carbonated ion in the porewater. If calcium ion exists and the pH of the environment is alkaline, theprecipitation of calcium carbonate mineral occurs. Following is a reaction
when glucose is used as nutrition (Kawasaki et al. 2006).
C6 H12O6 � 6O2 � 6CO2 � H 2O

(1)

C6 H12O6 � 2CO2 � 2C2 H 5OH(2)

Ca � � CO2 � H 2 O � CaCO3 � 2 H �(3)

3. A TRIAL TEST FOR THE EVALUATION OF MICROBIALCEMENTATION
A trial test was preformed to evaluate the degree of microbial cementation.
Dry Toyoura sand was air pluviated in loose state, of which dry density of
1.44g/cm3, to prepare triaxial cylindrical specimen of �50mm by h100mm.
Isotropic confining stress of 30kPa was applied, then “bio-grout” percolated
into the specimen from the bottom to the top, by giving approximately 1mhead difference. The flush of bio-grout was terminated after one day fromthe start of flushing as the flush rate notably diminished. The specimen wasthen left and monitored for a week. The bio-grout was made from the watertaken from a pond, to which source of nutrition and calcium was added.
Composition of bio-grout is shown below.
Tris buffer
0.1mol/L
Sucrose 0.01mol/L
CaCl2 2H2O
0.01mol/L
Microbes
bacteria which inhabit the pond
Shear wave velocities transmitting through the specimen were
measured by Trigger and Accelerometer method, so called TA method,originally proposed by AnhDan et al. (2003). Shear wave of 2kHz generated
by triggers on a top cap was monitored by two small accelerometersattached to lateral surface of the specimen. Wave velocities were calculatedby the difference of wave arrival time and wave travel length. The operationand system of TA method is schematically presented in Figure 1. A photo of
the specimen equipped with the sensors is shown in Figure 2.

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Trigger Accelerometer Apparatus Setting

P type triggers

S type triggers

VP/S=d/tFunction Generator

Amplifier

d

vs

vp

t
SignalAmplifierOscilloscope

Accelerometers attachedon the membrane

Figure 1: Trigger and Accelerometer method

Trigger for S-wave

Accelerometers

Figure 2: Specimen equipped with sensors for TA method
4. DEVELPED CEMENTATION AND CHANGE OF SHEAR WAVEVELOCITY
A photo of specimen after the test is shown in Figure 3. Cementation
appeared to develop as the specimen could self-stand, but it wassignificantly non-uniform. Full saturation of the specimen with bio-grout
could not be achieved as the flushing was terminated in the course ofsaturation process due to notable decrease in permeability. It was probably
the main cause for the non-uniform development of cementation.

Trial Test on The Evaluation of Soil Cementation Generated by The Function of Microorganism643

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 3: Photo of the specimen after the test

Shear wave velocity (m/s)

Shear wave velocities, Vs, are plotted against elapsed time in Figure 4.
The value of Vs was 212m/s at the start of grout flushing, then showing
slight increase and decrease, it became 233m/s after one week. It is
indicated that small strain shear stiffness, G, was expected to increase by
more than 10%. Although it should be noted that shear stiffness evaluatedby wave measurements may contain certain amount of errors, as the velocity
increase in this test was measured in an identical specimen under theconstant stress condition, it can be thought that the observed velocity
increase was due to the development of cementation. Figure 5 indicates thatthe received waveform after one week showed larger response compared tothat after on day. It may be also due to the effects of cementation createdbetween sand grains.

Flushing

0

1

2
3
4
5
6
Elapsed time �day�

7

Figure 4: Change of shear wave velocity

644

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

0.5���

������
Accelerometer 1������
Accelerometer 2������� �

Voltage of received wave (V)ICUS Report 31

0.0���

-0.5����
�������

0.0000�������

�������

0.001
���
��
Time (s)�������

�������

0.002

Accelerometer 1������
Accelerometer������ 2
0.5���
��������

Voltage of received wave (V)(a) after one day

0.0

���

-0.5����
�������

0.0000�������

������

0.001
���
��
Time (s)������

������

0.002(b) after one week
Figure 5: Received wave forms
5. CONCLUSIONS
A trial test was performed to evaluate the degree of cementation created by
the microbial functions. Using microbes naturally inhabited in the pond,some cementation could be generated in a loose sand specimen, although it
was not uniform. Shear wave velocities propagating through the specimen
increased by approximately 10%, implying the development of cementationin the course of the test. Trigger Accelerometer method can be applicable toassess the progression of cementation in non-destructive manner.

Trial Test on The Evaluation of Soil Cementation Generated by The Function of Microorganism645

October 2008, Beijing, China

REFERENCES
Kawasaki, S., Murao, A. Hiroyoshi, N. Tsunekawa, M. and Kaneko, K.,
2006. Fundamental study on microbial cementation grout. OyoChishitsu, Vol. 47, No.1, 2-12 (in Japanese).
Hata, T., Kuwano, R. and Abe, H. 2008. Fundamental study of in-situ
permeability control technique using microbial function. Doboku
Gakkai Ronbunshuu G, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers,Vol. 64, No. 2,
168-176.
AnhDan,LQ, Koseki,J and Sato,T. 2002. Comparison of Young�s moduli
of dense sand and gravel measured by dynamic and static methods.
Geotechnical Testing Journal, Vol.25, No.4, 349-368.

646

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARD PREDICTIONSYSTEM FOR INTENTIONAL ATTACKS IN
URBAN AREAS
RYOHJI OHBA1, SHINSUKE KATO2,OSAMU UKAI 3 and TOMOHISA YAMASHITA4
1
Nagasaki R&D Center, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan
2
Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japan
3
AdvanceSoft Corp., Japan
4
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science andTechnology, Japanryohji_ohba@mhi.co.jp
ABSTRACTA hazard prediction system has been developed for chemical,
biological and radiological (CBR) attacks in urban areas with the use of themesoscale meteorological model, RAMS and its dispersion model HYPACT.
The developed simulation system can predict 1) concentration of hazardous
gases and 2) the number of casualties based on the population database ofJapan.
RAMS is equipped with an optional scheme to simulate airflow aroundbuildings based on the volume fraction of the buildings within each grid cell.
However, this scheme requires significant computational time if applied forfine meshes. Accordingly, we have developed a new computational scheme
using the RAMS code with a mesh size of a few meters to simulate the effectof a building complex on the dispersion. This scheme requires
computational time of as little as a few minutes on a conventional personal
computer. The computational scheme first extracts the shapes of thebuildings from a digital map database. Then, a set of steady flows is
calculated for 16 wind directions using a fine mesh, and the results are
saved as a database. Next, the scheme calculates an unsteady flow on acoarse mesh, which is nudged by a linear combination of the relevant datafrom the 16-wind direction steady airflow database. The nudging is
performed at the boundaries of the fine mesh domain using the Least Mean
Square Method (LMSM).The dispersion prediction scheme is currently
being validated with the use of field and wind tunnel data.
1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, the likelihood of attacks by chemical, biological andradiological (CBR) agents in mega-cities may be increasing. In Japan, theJapanese cult Aum Shinrikyo carried out Sarin gas attacks in Nagano andTokyo. The attack in the residential area of Matsumoto City, Nagano

647

October 2008, Beijing, China

resulted in 7 deaths and 586 injuries. The attack on five subway lines in theTokyo metropolitan area led to 12 deaths and over 5500 injuries.
The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technologyof Japan (MEXT) commenced a national project for urban safety in 2007.
As a part of this project, MEXT assigned a research consortium consistingof the University of Tokyo, the National Institute for Advanced Industrial
Science and Technology (AIST), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and
AdvanceSoft, Corp. to develop a new hazard prediction and mitigation
simulation system for CBR attacks. This simulation system is intended foruse by first respondents to attacks such as municipal fire protection andpolice agencies. Therefore, the system needs to be able to simulate gas
diffusion with minimal computational time on a conventional personal
computer (PC).
2. SIMULATION SYSTEM
2.1 System description
The developed simulation system, called MEASURES, consists of an
airflow database, a dispersion model, and a damage prediction model(Figure 2.1-1). Meteorological data can be loaded onto the system by theuser directly or through the Internet. The databases of the airflow,
topography, and population are pre-installed on the system. Less than 15
minutes of computational time are required for 12 hours of simulation. The
output of simulations such as wind vectors, gas concentration, and casualty
counts for every 10 minutes of simulated time are displayed on the screen,
and are thus available to the users during and after the simulation.
2.2 Meteorological model
Most meteorological models are available in the public domain as
open source codes. Examples of such models are RAMS, WRF, and MM5.
To simulate airflow around building complexes with a mesh size of a few
meters, the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) codedeveloped by Pielke et al. of Colorado State University(http://www.atmet.com/) was modified. First, the two-dimensional turbulencemodel by Mellor and Yamada (1982) was replaced by a three-dimensional
turbulence model as in Trini Castelli (2006) to simulate complex airflow
around buildings and terrain. The simulated vertical profiles of windvelocity around a building were compared and verified with the wind tunnel
database from Hamburg University (http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/DataSets.432.0.html) (Figure 2.2-1).

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Input Data
GIS database(topography�

Simulation
using RAMS
Pre- simulation

Meteorologicalcondition

Radiological materials
release info. �location,
species, sources, etc.�
Dispersion

Airflowprediction

Airflow
database

GIS database�population�

Damageprediction

prediction

using HYPACT

Output Data
Concentration

Wind vector

Casualty countFigure 2.1-1: Structure of the advanced edition of MEASURESWind Tunnel Experiment
RAMS�Ver.4.3 with Drag force term �
RAMS�Ver.5.0 with the improved building scheme

X=1H

1

1

0
-2 -1 0 1 2
U/Uin

0-2 -1 0 1 2
U/Uin

X=3H

2
Z/H

Z/H

Z/H

X=2H

2

2

Z/H

X=0H

2

�

1

0
-2 -1 0 1 2
U/Uin

1

0

-2 -1 0 1 2
U/Uin

Figure 2.2-1: Comparisons of vertical wind profiles between RAMS
simulation and wind tunnel data
Subsequently, the high speed computing scheme, Database
Computing System of Air Flow (DCSAF) was developed by MHI (Ohba,
2007). The computing system of DCSAF can be summarized as follows:

Development of Hazard Prediction System for Intentional Attacks in Urban Areas649

October 2008, Beijing, China

1) Steady-state airflow is calculated for a location of interest undervarious atmospheric conditions: a total of 48 conditions were generated by
combining 16 wind directions and 3 atmospheric stabilities.
2) A time series of airflow is generated for the location of interest. In thisprocedure, the 3-dimensional wind data from the database of 48 atmosphericconditions are interpolated at each time step for the wind direction and theatmospheric stability observed at the location at that time step (Figure 2.2-2).
NNW --- 337.5
NW --- 315.0

Extraction

WNW --- 292.5
W

---

270.0

Interpolation

ENE --- 67.5=

NE --- 45.0=

NNE --- 22.5
N

---

0.0

t1

Wind
Wind
direction direction �(compass) (deg.)

=

3

2

1

t2

t3

Airflow
database.
(16 datasetscorresponding
to 16 winddirections)45�(NE) 67.5�(ENE)Interpolation

Simulation timeat t=t3
�3Figure 2.2-2: Simulation of a time-series of unsteady airflow
with the interpolation of an airflow database
Because computational time is inversely proportional to the mesh size,
simulation with a small mesh size requires significant computational time.
However, with the use of DCSAF, the computational time is reduced by afactor of approximately 100 compared to that by a conventional model(Table 2.2-1).
Table 2.2-1: Time required to compute one simulated hour using a PC.
Times given are those required to calculate the large-scale grids, the smallscale grids, and the large- and small-scale grids combined, respectively.

2.3

Model

100 m <

100 m >

Total

Present modelFew min.

Few sec

Few min.

Conventional

10 min.

200 min.

Few hrs

Atmospheric diffusion model

The HYPACT (HYbrid PArticle and Concentration Transport) codeis an atmospheric diffusion code that can be coupled to RAMS. This code isbased on a Lagrangian particle model that satisfies mass conservation incomplex airflow and can adopt the finite difference method at large
distances downwind to reduce computational time.

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

The simulated results of gas concentration were compared andverified with the observational data from Tokai that were collected by theJapan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) in 1991 and 1992 asshown in Figure 2.3-1(Hayashi,1998). The effect of building complexes onairflow is well simulated by RAMS and HYPACT for wind velocity andturbulence intensity (Figure 2.3-2).
� �������������������� ���� �� � � �� ����������

����
���
���
���

��� �

���
�
�����

����

�

���

����

����
����
����
����
�����
� �� �

Figure 2.3-1: Comparisons of ground-level concentration at measurement
points. The size of the circular symbols indicates the concentration

0.05

0.22

0.40

0.58(m2/s2)

Figure 2.3-2: Simulated wind vectors (arrows) and turbulence intensity(contours) around buildings (white blocks)

Development of Hazard Prediction System for Intentional Attacks in Urban Areas651

October 2008, Beijing, China

3. APPLICATIONS FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN
3.1 Overview
The research consortium consisting of the University of Tokyo, theNational Institute for Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST),
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and AdvanceSoft Corp. is currently inthe process of developing a hazard prediction and mitigation simulation
system for CBR attacks as assigned by MEXT in 2007. The year-by-year
schedule of each sub-theme is shown in Table 3.1-1. A schematic overview
of the envisioned completed project is shown in Figure 3.1-1.
Table 3.1-1: Year-by-year schedule of each sub-theme
Sub theme

20071) Prediction system
for atmosphericdiffusion (MHI)

High-speed
computing system

Validation of thesystem with field
experimental data

2) Prediction systemfor diffusion in
enclosed space(Advance-Soft)

Base system,
Add sub-models

Make-up andValidation of thesystem3) Verification Test
(Tokyo University)

Wind Tunnel
Experiment

Full-Scale Experiment4) Development ofevacuation assist
system (AIST)

Development ofintegrated system

Validation ofevacuation assist
systemAnnual target

Development of Validation of each Evaluation oftechnology
total systemfundamental
technology

Existing

Total system of prediction andmitigation for CBR hazard

Techniques

2008

Sub theme 1,2 & 3
Atmosphericdiffusion
model
Building ventilation
model

Evacuation
assist techniqueWind tunnel
modeling

Evacuation assist system

2009
Evaluation of
total system withemergency
response drill byTokyo
metropolis

Application

Diffusion prediction
systemInput

Macro-level pedestrian simulator

Town-scale
simplified evaluation

Evacuation plan

Evaluation

Integration

Queue network
simulator

Planning
assist system

Decision by
rescue experts

Plan candidate
RoutecandidateMan-level
detailed evaluation

Evaluation

�Candidates of
evacuation plan andits evaluation

Micro-level pedestrian
simulator

Population
data

Input

CAD data

GIS data

Figure 3.1-1: Schematic overview of the envisioned completed MEXT
project for hazard prediction

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

3.2 Prediction of outdoor gas diffusion
The developed hazard prediction system can display gas concentrationand casualties as contour maps.
a) Without buildingsb) With buildings
10minpassed20 minpassedFigure 3.2-2: Comparison of the gas concentration distribution with andwithout buildings after an instantaneous gas release. Red and blue on thecolor bars indicate high and low concentrations, respectively.
Figure 3.2-2 indicates the effects of stagnation by building complexes
on gas diffusion in an urban area. Based on a Geographical Information
System (GIS) database of building shapes, all the buildings are simplified
for the numerical simulation as in Figure 3.2-3.

Figure 3.2-3: 3-D view of buildings, extent of diffused gas (green) andwind vectors (blue)

Development of Hazard Prediction System for Intentional Attacks in Urban Areas653

October 2008, Beijing, China

3.3 Prediction system of indoor gas diffusion
AdvanceSoft is developing a practical prediction system for diffusion
in enclosed space in the event of a CBR terrorism.This system is based on
EVE SAYFA(;Enhanced Virtual Environment Simulator for Aimed andYielded Fatal Accident),which is outcome of the project of “Revolutionary
Simulation Software”(RSS)(2005-2008).
The system can be related to airflow control in a space involving
complex airflow paths including human activity areas.The structure of EVE
SAYFA is shown in Figure3.3-1.
Simulation of health-hazard & smoke
advection and diffusion � in built environment �
Virtual Building (DataBase)

3D CFD model

1D Network model(LES, Combustion, Thermal
Radiation, Diffusion, etc)

(Air movement, Two-Layermodel, Combustion, etc)

Optimun design

5

Figure 3.3-1 Structure of EVE SAYFA

We can reduce the total computing time, saving the result of air
movement simulation in Database and reusing for diffusion simulation. This
procedure is shown in Figure 3.3-2(right).
1D network model

Result of Prediction system
for atmospheric diffusion
DataBase

3D CFD model

ventilation
Air vent. Model�1D network model�

Prediction ofdiffusion

Boundary Areas(1D to 3D, 3D to 1D)
�3D CFD�
DataBase

Calculationof diffusion

air movement
simulation

Efficient controlof Time step

�3D CFD,1D network�
hazardous andnoxious substances
release model

Figure 3.3-2 Combining models(left) and improvement models(right) of
EVE SAYFA

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

3.4 Assistance system of evacuation planning
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology(AIST) proposes an assistance system of evacuation planning, for estimationof evacuation from disasters caused by CBR terrorism. These disasters,
which are likely to be caused in urban areas, have many characteristics
different from natural disasters. These disasters are caused intentionally,
which means we must prepare for the worst; there are still few case that
CBR terrorism were actually conducted, which means we still know little
about what damage will be caused by such terrorism; unlike natural
disasters, these disasters are not always harmful to some of the urban
infrastructure, which means that they could be utilized for more efficientevacuation.
We have built a network-based pedestrian simulator, shown in
Figure 3.4-1, to be used to estimate the damage done by CBR terrorism.
Compared to previous grid based and continuous space based simulators
which took hours to conduct simulations with less than thousands ofevacuators, our network-based simulator are designed to conductsimulations much faster, taking less than few minutes for simulation withten thousands of evacuators.
Our pedestrian simulator is designed to be used with hazard
prediction systems of outdoor and indoor gas diffusion, which calculates
how harmful gases spread. Using data provided from hazard prediction
systems, our assistance system of evacuation planning can be used toestimate how much damage will be done, for various evacuation scenarios.
These results could be used to make and evaluate evacuation plans against
CBR terrorism.

Figure 3.4-1 3D view of our network-based pedestrian simulator

Development of Hazard Prediction System for Intentional Attacks in Urban Areas655

October 2008, Beijing, China

3.5 Application of prediction system
To validate the applicability of the developed hazard prediction
system, the system was run for the CBR attack drills that were conducted inTokyo and Kitakyushu. The main purpose of this system is to assist
municipal fire protection and police agencies at the pre-test stage ofroutinely conducted drills (Table 3.5-1).
Table 3.5-1: Emergency response items(Reference: U.S. National Research Council report�Response items

Time
RoutineAction planPre-test

Drill

Imaginary scenario �round table drill�working drill

Actualaccident

Emergency response

0 – 2 hours

Prediction of source terms

Initial stage

2 – 12 hours

Making a evacuation plan based on real time simulation

Second stage

12 – 24 hours

Decision making of recovery timing

Recovery action

1 – few days

Detail reproduction of public hazard

4. SUMMARY
To summarize, the CBR hazard prediction system can:1) simulate the effect of building complexes on airflow and gas diffusion
in urban areas.
2) compute unsteady airflow and gas diffusion using a mesh size of afew meters on a conventional PC.
REFERENCES
Hayashi, T. et al., 1998, Data of long term atmospheric diffusion
experiments (autumn, 1991), Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute,
JAERI-Data/Code 98-026 (in Japanese).
Mellor, G. L., and Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a Turbulence Closure
Model for Geophysical Fluid Problems. Reviews of Geophysics andSpace Physics 20, No.4, 851-875.
National Research Council, Tracking and predicting the atmosphericdispersion of hazardous material releases: Implications for homeland
security, National academies press
Ohba, R., Kouchi, A., and Hara, T., 2007. Hazard Projection System ofIntentional Attack in Urban Area, 11th Annual George Mason
University, Conference on “Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion
Modeling” July 10-12, 2007�Poster�.
RAMS/HYPACT technical description, http://www.atmet.com/
Trini Castelli, S., Hara, T., Ohba, R., and Tremback C.J.Y., 2006.
Validation studies of turbulence closure schemes for high resolutions
in mesoscale meteorological models, Atmospheric Environment 40,
2510-2523.

656

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

EARTHQUAKE EVACUATION PLAN FOR
OLD DHAKA, BANGLADESHISRAT JAHAN1, MD. YOUSUF REJA1
and MEHEDI AHMED ANSARY2
1
BNUS, BUET, Bangladesh
2
Dept. of Civil Engineering, BUET, Bangladesh
sheulyurp@yahoo.com
ABSTRACTAn effective evacuation plan is of utmost importance considering any
disaster mitigation measures through reducing loss to a great extend.
Evacuation plan for a locality can make them self-dependent in facing adisaster and make them be able to cope with a disaster. In preparing anearthquake evacuation plan the vulnerability of the existing structures alongwith the prevailing circumstances are studied. A sample-based survey in theselected case study area was done to make the plan efficient. The site
selected is in Old Dhaka considered as earthquake vulnerable zone due tohigh density of population living in a very compact land area with close
proximity of buildings including vulnerable structures along narrow local
streets. To have an effective evacuation plan, this paper goes through thevulnerability assessment of buildings in the study area ‘Ward no. 68’ of Old
Dhaka using RVS (Rapid Visual Screening) method to picture out whether
the building needs detail evaluation or not. Also Turkish Level I and II
method are used for more detail evaluation of buildings as proposed
evacuation site. Finally, an earthquake evacuation plan for the study area
has been prepared considering the relevant criterion. This paper represents
the 3D evacuation plan for the study area using GIS software.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Earthquake Risk is prominent in a disaster prone country like
Bangladesh. Recently it experienced a record of series of tremor throughout
the country indicating Bangladesh with the capital city Dhaka sits on amajor earthquake zone. Once a great earthquake occurs, Dhaka will suffer
immense losses of life and property due to unplanned city development
without maintaining any rules and regulations. Dhaka as the hub of all major
activities and major connecting part with outside worlds, any disastrous
attack on this city will have very severe long term consequences for theentire country. In Dhaka with a large population of more or less 12 million,
the most densely and vulnerable part is Old Dhaka and it is considered as
earthquake vulnerable zone due to its high population density, vulnerable
structures, low preparedness and others. There is a saying among theearthquake experts: "earthquakes do not kill, what kills is a building that
falls, a gas escape or a column". "The human factor changes a natural
hazard into a disaster" (Compound). This damage of structure is the main657

October 2008, Beijing, China

cause for human injury and death (Choudhury, 1996). It is very important to
reduce human vulnerability through prevention as we can’t stop any natural
disaster but can take pre-cautions in reducing the post effects. In order toreduce the loss due to an earthquake, an effective evacuation plan for
specific area is of utmost importance considering any disaster mitigation
measures with existing site situations. With the active involvement of thelocal community an evacuation plan will be more effective. To reduce loss
the inhabitants must learn what to do to cope with the disaster.The plan
must be publicized to the local community with their doing as per the plan,
along with capacity building through training on their activities during
evacuation. As such this will reduce the assumed impacts due to any disasterto a minimum.
2. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
�
�
�
�
�
�

To prepare an effective evacuation plan considering the prevailingsite condition to reduce the loss of lives and properties due to an
earthquake.
Vulnerability assessment of the buildings in the selected area.
Acknowledge the important public places including open spaces,
public buildings like school, religious centers, community centersand others within the community as post-disaster shelters.
Identify probable evacuation paths to the shelters.
To promote earthquake awareness including preparedness andmitigation programs within the community.
Over all, presenting an evacuation proposal for the area.

3. RATIONALE OF THE STUDY
During an earthquake the probability of a large number of building tocollapse is absolute in Bangladesh due to the poor construction quality ofbuildings. Also due to poor fire preparedness in high-rise buildings ofDhaka city, many buildings may catch fire and people may die due to lackof poor evacuation facilities. An effective evacuation plan can reduce loss
due to a disaster to a great extend. Evacuation plan for a locality can makethem self-dependent in facing a disaster and make them be able to cope witha disaster.
If the people are aware how to cope with the disasters, the losses willbe less. The local people with knowledge of evacuation techniques and an
evacuation plan for the community can help themselves before the outside
help reaches that reduces the effects of disaster to a great extend.
4. STUDY AREA
A highly dense congested area of the older part of Dhaka cit, Ward no. 68,
is selected as the study area due to its earthquake vulnerability. The site is658

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

characterized by a large no. of population living in a very compact land areawith close proximity of buildings along a very narrow local street. In mostcases it is difficult to differentiate the buildings from each other. The
prevailing circumstance gives a view of buildings may collapse without any
disaster like earthquake. The condition is unthinkable and unimaginable
what may happen with an attack of earthquake.

Study Area

Buriganga River

Figure 1: Aerial view of the study area (Ward no. 68, Old Dhaka)

Figure 2: showing boundary line of study area (68 no. Ward)

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh

659

October 2008, Beijing, China

5. METHODOLOGY
To have an effective plan justified to the respective region, data on
vulnerability of the existing buildings in the target area have collected.
Besides the prevailing site condition and other criterion relevant to prepare
the plan must be studied and analyzed. It is a very difficult and timeconsuming task to assess the vulnerability of the existing buildings in any
target area. In analyzing the vulnerability of the buildings two different
visual screening methods, i.e. FEMA-RVS and Turkish Simple Survey(Level-I & Level-II) Procedure has been used. The Level-I Turkish method
is almost similar to the RVS method. The rapid visual screening (RVS)
method has been used in this research to assess 1064 buildings and the detailevaluation of the proposed buildings for evacuation is made applying theTurkish Level-2 method. The religious place like mosques, the community
centers, educational institutes like schools, colleges and other public places
along with the open spaces like park, playground are considered as
evacuation sites. Finally after collecting data from field level, A GIS based
evacuation plan is generated based on the existing site condition likebuildings, road network system, and proposed places for evacuation, etc. byapplying different evacuation techniques. Over all a 3D elevation model ofthe area showing the escaping route with the shortest path directing toevacuation site from each specified group segment is to be prepared.
6. SURVEY FINDINGSA GIS based base map of the study area has been collected from Dhaka City
Corporation Authority. Based on the collected map, there is about 1300 nos.
of buildings in the study area excluding the under construction, katcha andsemi-pucca structures. And a sample survey on 1064 buildings is done tocollect the vulnerability data of the existing buildings that covered 80% of
the whole ward area.
6.1 Type of Building Structures
At the first stage of urbanization and city development in our country,
the capital city Dhaka flourished from the older part. Only URM(Unreinforced masonry buildings) structures were constructed that’s why
the no. of URM structures is significant in this area. 69% of the buildings
are C3 structures, around 30% are URM and only 1% are C2 structures. The
no. of C2 is only a few in this area as there are only some recently
constructed 7-8 storied structures with lift facility and shear wall. 3 types ofstructured buildings were found in the site, the categories are shown intable 1.

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Table 1: Type of building structures found in the site
Building
identifier

PhotographCharacteristics andperformance�
Usually masonry
exposed in exterior.
�Concrete columns andbeams may be full wall
thickness

C3(Moment
resistingframe)

9, P. K. Roy Lane

C2(Concrete
shear wallbuildings)

20, Islampur Road

URM
(Unreinforced
masonrybuildings)

4/2 Rai Ishwar Chandra Road�
Concrete shear wallbuildings are usually cast inplace.
�
Shear wall thickness
ranges from 6-10 in.
�
These buildings
generally perform better thanconcrete frame buildings.
�
Damage commonly
observed in taller buildings arecaused by vertical
discontinuities and irregularconfigurations.
�
These buildings often
use weak line mortar to bondthe masonry unit together.
�
Unreinforced masonryusually shows header bricks inthe wall surface.
�The performance of thistype of construction is poor
due to lack of anchorage ofwalls to floors and roof, soft
mortar and narrow piers
between window openings.

6.2 Building by their Height
It is interesting to notice that the 2 storied buildings are more in
number followed by 3 storied buildings in the study area. As old Dhaka is
the most ancient part of the capital, the number of URM structure is
prominent here which are most commonly of one to two storey. Figure
shows the distribution of buildings according to their height.

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh661

October 2008, Beijing, China

LegendFigure 3: 3D view showing building height of the study area
6.3 Land Use Pattern
The data collected from field is being analyzed to have an effective
plan for the target area. In preliminary stage, the land use distribution
pattern of the study area is evaluated based on the sample survey data. It isfound that the residential and residential-commercial mixed type land use
pattern is predominant there. Figure 4 shows the Land use distribution in the
study area (Ward No. 68). Most often the ground floors of most of theresidential buildings are being used for commercial purpose.
0%
1%

0% 1%

9%

0%
25%

64%
Assembly
Commercial

Educational
Industrial

Residential & Commercial (Mixed Use)

Residential

Religious

Emergency Service

Figure 4: Land Use pattern of the Study Area (based on Sample Survey)

662

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6.4 Vulnerability Assessment of the Existing Buildings
The study area is highly vulnerable to earthquake due to its highdensity of population and poor structural build up. Figure 5 shows how
congested the area is with the figures 6 to 9 to apparently visualize thevulnerability of the area.

Figure 5: Plan showing the organic pattern of Ward 68

Figure 6: Unplanned urbanization- contiguous building character

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh663

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 7: Poor infrastructure---- narrow road width in terms of buildingheight, building density & also population density.

common wall

Figure 8: The adjacency of building without any set back, serious
Pounding may occur during earthquake

Figure 9: vertical irregularity
The earthquake vulnerability of the buildings is measured using the
Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) Method and detail evaluation of the
proposed evacuating buildings is made using the Turkish Simple Survey(Level-I & Level-II) method.

664

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The score below which a structure is assumed to require further
investigation is termed as “cut-off” score. It is suggested that buildings
having an S score less than the “cut-off” score should be investigated by anexperienced seismic design professional experienced in seismic design. If
the obtained “final score” is greater than the “cut-off” score the building
should perform well in a seismic event. A score of 2 is used in this study as
a “cut-off” score.
RVS score ‘0’ is given to the buildings that showed negative results,
that means the buildings are in emergency need of detail evaluation by any
structural engineer and take further actions like retrofitting, etc. based on the
result found. The results show that 44% score for buildings was found totouch the cut off value according to FEMA method and all of them require
further detailed analysis on vulnerability to determine the level of actual risk.

44%
56%

<2

>2

Figure 10: Buildings according to the RVS cut-off Score
A more detail analysis of the proposed evacuation centers has been
done in Turkish level-I and level-II method in comparison with the RVS
method. It has been found from other studies that the Turkish method ismore compatible in the circumstances of our country. A “cut-off”
performance score of 50 has been suggested for both survey levels.
Table shows a comparative view of these two methods. It is clear thatmost of the structures fall below the cut-off score in the RVS method but inTurkish Method, most of them stay above the cut-off score that is, they
don’t need further detail analysis.
Table 2: Vulnerability Scores of the proposed evacuation centers

Name & address

Kamranga Mosque
Islampur Jamme Mosque
Jhabbu Khanam Jamme Mosque
Shahjada mia Jamme Mosque
Zindabahar 2nd Lane Jamme Mosque
Ahmed Bawyani School
Anandomoyee Girls’ High School : St. 01
Babubazar Ghat Jame Mosque
Haybat Nagar Dewan School
Jumman Community Center &Ward Commissioner’s Office
Mahutuli Mosque
Maulana Mosque

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh

St. 03

RVS
Score
0
0.4
1.9
1.7
2.4
0
2.2
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.7

Score inlevel-I
110
65
90
105
50
75
110
115
120
115
125

Score inlevel-II
106
57
100
106
47
85
108
120
125
113
125

2.2
2.2

125
125

130
130

665

October 2008, Beijing, China

7. PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE EVACUATION PLACES
The religious sites like mosques, the community centers, educational
institutes like schools, colleges and other public places along with the open
spaces like park, playground are considered as evacuation sites to cover postdisaster shelter for earthquake. Most often the schools are considered as theShelter place from any kind of disaster in this country. So it is an emergency
task to make the building itself safe during and after the occurrence ofdisaster ensuring the safety of its residing people, i.e. the students. Turkish
Level-I and Level-II, a more detail analysis of the building is used to assess
the structures proposed to be used as evacuation place.
Vulnerability assessment by detailed methods must be conducted forbuildings proposed as evacuation centers. Then the vulnerable ones must be
retrofitted. The structures adjacent to the open space should be earthquake
resistant or retrofitted. The buffer zone for each evacuation center has to be
determined depending on its capacity.
The capacity of an evacuation center can be calculated as follows:
No. of people = Size of the space / area required for each person (0.7 m2)
Table 3: Evacuation centers and their capacity
Name
Babubazar Ghat Jamme Mosque
Shajada Mia Jamme Mosque
Islampur Jamme Mosque
Jhabbu Khanam Jamme Mosque
Zindabahar 2nd Lane Jamme Mosque
Kamranga Jamme Mosque
Zindabahar Playground

666

Area (sft)
3,660
2,163
27,30010,5006,440
3,200
19,000Capacity (No. of people)
457
270
3412
1312
805
400
2375

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LegendFigure 11: 3d view showing public building in study area
8. EVACUATION PATHS
An evacuation path or emergency exit route for earthquake vulnerable zone
is the selected path without any hindrance during the earthquake occurrence
and free to go to the evacuation sites. Evacuation path of a particular area
will be selected in a way such that it will be the most convenient to use as
the exit route for the people experiencing an earthquake. Every evacuation
path will be led to a pre-defined safe evacuation center. Length of pathshould be as small as possible.
An evacuation path should have a minimum width all the way through.
In general, the minimum width = Fire truck vehicle width + car width.
If the existing width of the proposed evacuation path is less than therequired minimum, then the structures on both sides of the path may have tobe reconsidered for reconstruction or destruction or retrofitting to increase
the width and ensuring free movement. As these paths should be free fromall kind of damage, building adjacent to this road should be earthquake
resistant. It should be designed as such that all lifeline facilities beneath thestreet should be safe after earthquake and least damage will occur.

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh

667

October 2008, Beijing, China

Roads should be designed in a segmental manner. Thus damaged
portion can easily be replaced after disaster and a simple crack can’t hamper
the whole path during disaster. Again, utility pipes should be innovatively
designed through using damper. Boundary walls should be designed as suchthat it not only ensure privacy and security but also reduce the risk of being
collapsed or creating hazards during disaster period.
Road widths at different point have been measured along theevacuation paths. It has been observed that width of road is not the same all
the way through. At certain points roads are quite narrow. They must be
widen up to at least 20 feet by demolishing the adjacent structures.

Figure 12: Road layout & public building in Ward no. 68.
9. CONCLUSIONSThis study tries to assess the prevailing condition in old part of Dhaka cityand tries to depict the situation what may happen if an earthquake occurs.
Both of the methods in building vulnerability assessment have limitations interms of incorporating the parameters relevant to the design andconstruction practices in Bangladesh and many countries. Finally this study
tries to conclude with some proposals related to Earthquake evacuation thatwill be effective with respect to concerned area. The proposals are:668

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�
�
�

�

�

�
�
�
�

�
�

Based on the evacuation proposal presented in this study a large
scale evacuation plan for the entire Old Dhaka should be
prepared.
A GIS based evacuation plan needs to be prepared based on theexisting site condition like buildings, road network system andproposed places for evacuation etc.
The whole area must be segregated into different groups
according to vulnerability and capacity of evacuation places.
Overall, a 3D elevation model of showing the escaping road withthe shortest path directing to evacuation site from each specified
group segment is to be prepared.
Launch extensive mass awareness programs for earthquake; theawareness must include city dwellers, government officials,
municipality officials, politicians, engineers, architects, designers,
builders, medical people etc.
Develop appropriate training materials for different groups, suchas planners, engineers, contractors, masons, bar binders,volunteers, fire fighters, doctors, nurses, first aid providers etc.
take training programs at the appropriate levels to impart thesetrainings.
Install and operate seismic instruments at suitable locations in
the country.
Develop a comprehensive regional catalogue of all recorded
historical earthquakes in Bangladesh and adjacent regions that
influence the country’s seismic hazards.
Prepare a regional seismic hazard map of Bangladesh using theexisting information and incorporate appropriate building code.
Develop Bangladeshi scientists including seismologists,
engineers, architects, geologists and other technicians throughtraining and higher education programs to achieve leadership in
all aspects of earthquake hazard assessment studies.
Conduct special studies on structural soundness of hospitals, firefighting centers, schools and university buildings.
Demonstrate retrofitting and introduce motivation program ofretrofitting through municipality leadership (for Dhaka city thismay be RAJUK).

REFERENCES
Ansary, M.A., 2004. Seismic Loss Estimation of Dhaka for an Earthquakeof Intensity VII. Oriental Geographer, Dhaka University.
Campo, M. A., nd, 2006. Study of Awareness of Earthquake Risk in the
population of Mendoza. URL: http://proventionconsortium.org/files.
Choudhury, J.R., 1996. Design and construction of houses to resist natural
hazards. Workshop on housing and hazards organized by Dept. of
Civil Engg, BUET, Dhaka, in association with Earth Resources Centre,
University of Exeter, U.K.
Rahman, M. G. F., 2004. Seismic Damage Scenerio for Dhaka City. M.Sc.
Engg. Thesis, Department of Civil Engg., BUET, Dhaka.

Earthquake Evacuation Plan for Old Dhaka, Bangladesh

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670

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

REMOTE SENSING AND GIS APPROACH
FOR TSUNAMI DAMAGE ASSESSMENT–A CASE STUDY
W.N. PREMADASA and D. DMDOKDepartment of Earth Resources Engineering, University of Moratuwa,
Sri Lanka
wuditha@gmail.com
ABSTRACTTsunami cause widespread damage to the properties as well as human
lives in the coast regions. Sri Lanka is a highly vulnerable country fortsunami since Java-Sumatra is a very active subduction zone, where there
were several very large earthquakes during the last three years. Current
study investigated the potential of remote sensing and GIS in damage
detection after a hazardous event. The case study was carried out at Galle,
Sri Lanka and the primarily focus was on identification and assessment ofdamage due to tsunami in 2004. The gravity of damage could not be
identified only with the satellite data always therefore GIS data and fieldobservations had to be employed in such situations. A field survey was
carried out to identify the damaged areas and to investigate the existing
situation at present. There is an extensive need for a proper evacuation planfor the country. An evacuation plan was developed for the Gall city using
the road map. Schools and religious places such as temples and mosquesnear to coastal line were used as gathering places. Using the Contour mapof the area, high elevation points were identified as evacuation places. The
shortest path to evacuation places from the gathering places were
calculated using Arc view Network Analyst Extension. Local authorities canuse the proposed evacuation plan and maps to minimise the damage in a
possible future tsunami event.
1. INTRODUCTION
Identification and assessment of damage after a natural or man made hazard
is essential in various views. It basically helps to assess the magnitude of thedamage as well as for rehabilitation and reconstruction activities.
In the view point of Sri Lanka, December 26 2004 tsunami was theworst hazard, which Sri Lankans had to face recently. According To United
Nations reports, over 30,000 were dead, 4,000 more were missing, one
million were displaced and US$ 1.5 billion worth property was lost due tothe tsunami. Remote sensing and Geographical information systems (GIS)
with high resolution data is a useful tool as an immediate means to identify
and assess the damage due to a hazard.(Wijetunge, 2006). But only theremotely sensed data cannot give high accuracy identifications since field
verifications have to be done along with that. If a possible hazardous671

October 2008, Beijing, China

situation has been identified, a proper evacuation plan also should bedesigned to evacuate people. This is very much helpful to evacuate people
as soon as possible and reduce the damage to the minimum. The major
problem occurs when an alert is issued for a hazard. Unnecessary roadtraffic may be created due to the poor knowledge of people identifying theevacuation places. Therefore prior training for a developed evacuation planis also essential.
This paper presents the potential use of remote sensing and GIS for
identifying damage after a hazardous situation and gives an evacuation planfor future tsunami situations in the study area.
2. STUDY AREA
The Study area (Figure 1) is the Galle Municipal council, which consists of
43 GN divisions. It is one of the hardest hit cities from the 2004 tsunami in
Sri Lanka. This is the largest urban area in southern Sri Lanka.

Figure 1: Study Area, Galle Municipal council
3. METHODOLOGY
Satellite images were geometrically corrected using the topographical mapof the area into local transverse Mercator coordinate and the area of interest
was subset using the boundary of Galle municipal council area. Quickbird
panchromatic and multispectral (MSS) images were combined using
resolution merge to increase the resolution of the MSS image. All thesatellite images were enhanced to get better visualisation. Linear stretchingand edge enhancement techniques were used for the enhancement. Image
classification techniques such as supervised and unsupervised classification
were used to classify the images and to prepare land use land cover map of672

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the area. Changes between the satellite images were detected for the original
image and band rationed image using change detection algorithm. Damage
detection and identification for buildings was also done with visualobservation (Figure 2) of the satellite data (Mehdiyev et al, 2005) and thecurrent status was verified using field investigations. Evacuation plan wasdeveloped using the road map of the area.

Figure 2: Visual interpretation of satellite data
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Damage detection
The damage detection was done with comparison of satellite images
using change detection algorithm (Figure 3). Detection of damage is not
100% accurate due to distortion such as noise in the satellite data.

LegendDamagedFigure 3: Damage detection using change detection algorithm- Galle
There for visual observation of satellite data was also used to identify
the building damage (Figures 4 & 5).

Remote Sensing and GIS Approach for Tsunami Damage Assessment –A Case Study673

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 4: Building damage identified using visual observation of satellite
data

Figure 5: Building damage of Galle MC
Table 1: Total damage in the Study area

Criteria
Number of Deaths
Number of People missing
Houses Fully Damaged within 100m
Houses with partly damages within 100m
Houses fully damaged out side 100m
Houses with partly damages outside 100m
Number of families affected
Number of persons affected

Number
774
143
763
495
155
652
6364
31867

4.2 Generation of new buffer zone
The buffer zone imposed by the government is 100m from the coastal
line. But comparing with the inundation data we suggest that there should be674

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alterations to this buffer zone. A new buffer zone (Figure 6) limit wasdeveloped using the existing buffer and inundation data.

Figure 6: New buffer zone limit of the area
4.3 Evacuation plan for the Galle MC
The inundated area was identified with previous data, and the
proposed evacuation plan is based on that data. Present area is mostly a flat
land area except a limited numbers of high elevation locations. Using the 3Dmodel (Figure 7) higher elevation locations were selected as evacuation
places. People are advised to gather to the gathering places or else use theirown vehicles to evacuate to safe places. Shortest path available (Figure 9)
was identified using the arc view3.2 network analyst extension. (Turk andGumusay, 2004)

Figure 7: 3D model of the study area

Remote Sensing and GIS Approach for Tsunami Damage Assessment –A Case Study675

October 2008, Beijing, China

Figure 8: Evacuation plan for Galle MC
5. CONCLUSION
Remote Sensing and GIS is one of most appropriate tools for rapid damage
assessment for tsunami affected area for rehabilitation purposes andgeneration of evacuation plan. Structural damage occurred due to tsunami isvery high within the 100m areas. However, significant structural damages
have occurred beyond the 100m limit in some areas. Therefore it isrecommended to extend the existing 100m buffer zone up to 200m distancefrom the shore. Network analysis is one of the reliable tools for generate
shortest possible path for evacuation from the existing schools and otherpublic places located in the inundated areas.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
Following recommendations are proposed for future studies.
�
�
�

676

Use of Satellite data having Infra Red band so the damage on
vegetation could also be detected.
Use RS and GIS for detecting damages and assessment for otherhazards prevalent in the country such as landslides and floods.
Develop an evacuation plan for the whole country.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are thankful to Divisional secretariat, Galle-four-gravets
Divisional Secretariat division and also Dr. Aththanayake, Geological
Survey and Mines Bureau, Sri Lanka for their valuable time spent and forthe help in collecting data. We would also like to thank academic and non
academic staff of department of Earth Resources Engineering, University of
Moratuwa for their support given to complete this research. Our sincere
thanks should go to anonymous reviewers for improving the quality of thepaper.
REFERENCES
Mehdiyev Magsud , Kyaw Sann Oo, Jagath Rajapaksha, 2005, Tsunami
Disaster Damage Detection and Assessment Using High Resolution
Satellite Data, GIS and GPS – Case study in Sri Lanka, J.ACRS2005,
5(2).
T.Turk, M.U.Gumusay,2004, GIS Design and application for tourism,J.
ISPRS, p. 485
Janaka J. Wijetunge, 2006, Spatial distribution of Tsunami height and theextent of inundation in Sri Lanka,J. Science of tsunami
hazards,24(1),pp. 225-239.

Remote Sensing and GIS Approach for Tsunami Damage Assessment –A Case Study

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678

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

A METHOD ON IMPROVING THE
ADAPTABILITY OF TIME SERIES MODELSAND ITS APPLICATION IN THE ANALYSIS
OF PUBLIC SECURITY
WEI WANG
Department of Mathematics, Information School,
Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, P.R.China
wwei@ruc.edu.cn
ABSTRACTTimes series analysis is the method which based on the historical
records to build model and then to make statistical inference for the future
trends. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence
among observations at different points in time. The model will be different
because of the sample data choice and the estimation method. Owing to thecomplexity and uncertainty of the real problems, the characteristics of times
series will be variant probably in coming periods. So in order to make aproper prediction for future evolution, improving the adaptability of themodel is necessary.
This paper proposes the dynamic error regulation method to improve
the adaptability of time series models. We first translate the time seriesmodel into the form of state space. Then, based on the principle of control
theory, we analyse the controllability of the model, and then introduce a
dynamic error regulation term into the time-series model to revise the model.
In the end of the paper, we will demonstrate the efficiency of this method
through some actual case studies.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the study on the problem of social safety, it is often necessary to concern
about the changing trend of events number relevant to the safety situation.
The evolution of events number is very important to the decision or
management about the safety circumstances. Time series analysis is one of
the essential tools to the technical analysis of safety problem. In fact, any
series of observations ordered along a single dimension, such as time, may
be thought of as a time series. The events number of public security is, ofcourse, a time series.
Since Box and Jenkins (1970, 1976) published the seminal book Time
Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, a number of books and a vast
number of research papers have been published in this area. Time series
analysis and its applications have become increasingly important in various
fields of research, such as business, economics, engineering, medicine,environ-metrics, social sciences, politics, and so on (Chatfield, 2004, Thoma679

October 2008, Beijing, China

and Wilson, 2007, Zhang and Qi, 2003).
The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence
among observations at different points in time. What distinguishes timeseries analysis from general multivariate analysis is precisely the temporalorder imposed on the observations. Many economic variables, such as GNP
and its components, price indices, sales, and stock returns are observed overtime. So are some variables in public safety, for example, the events number.
In addition to being interested in the contemporaneous relationships amongsuch variables, we are often concerned with relationships between theircurrent and past values, i.e., relationships over time. At the same time, timeseries method can avoid the trouble which encountered in other methods
such as regression analysis method in which some necessary factors, forinstances, the climate, the consumers’ favour etc., cannot be explained very
well (Thoma and Wilson, 2007).
Through the analysis of establishing the model by using the generaltime-series analysis method, we can get the conclusion that the model will
be different because of the choice of sampled data and the estimation
method. On the other hand, because of the complexity and uncertainty of thereal world, the characteristics of time series will change probably in coming
periods. Therefore, we need to find some ways to improve the adaptabilityof the model and to enhance the predictive ability of the model. So
improving the adaptability of the model is necessary.
By now, the improvement of time series model has been performed byincreasing the order of models, or by choosing the proper forms of fitness
functions method. There also have methods such as adaptive method,
natural network, etc. (Tang, 2001). There hasn’t nearly nothing been doneby using the method of feedback to revise the model.
This paper proposes the dynamic error regulation method to improve
the adaptability of time series models. We first translate the time-seriesmodel into the form of state space. Then, based on the principle of control
theory, we consider the controllability of the model, and then introduce a
dynamic error regulation term in the model to revise the time-series model.
In the end of the paper, we will demonstrate the specific application of thismethod through some actual case studies. It indicates the efficiency of themethod.
2. THE COMMON TIME SERIES MODELS AND THE PROBLEM
In the theory of time series analysis, the fundamental series type is thestationary time series. There have been almost completely results on it. For
stationary time series, the common models are the ones such as: autoregression (AR) model, moving average (MA) model, and the synthetic
form of AR and MA, i.e. the ARMA model. For the ARMA ( p, q ) model,
its general form can be described as:
X t � �1 X t �1 � � � p X t � p � � t � �1� t �1 � � 2� t � 2 � � � � q � t � q(1)where �1 , � 2 , � , � p ,� 1 , �� q are p � q weighted coefficients. The
definition of the forms and the coefficients can be found in the book of Box,
Jenkins and Reinsel (1994) or the book of Zhang and Qi ( 2003).
680

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For non-stationary time series model, usually, it can be built in threesteps. Firstly, by choosing the proper way to preprocess the data, such as
taking logarithm, getting the proper order of difference, etc., we can get astationary time series. Secondly, using the method of stationary time series
method, we can get the model for the new stationary series. Thirdly, fromthe inverse transformation of the first step, we can get the model on theoriginal non-stationary time series. One of such kind of time series models
is known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.
This class of models has proved to be useful in representing both stationary
and non-stationary time series. An ARIMA model may contain only an
autoregressive (AR) term, only a moving average (MA) term, or both.
Another important model of non-stationary time series is GARCH model. It
is shown that the model has been used widely in the modeling of somecomplex processes, such as financial process.
An important consideration when modeling time series is the principleof parsimony. That is to say, to representing the systematic structure of theseries with as few parameters as possible. Essentially, this means simpler
representations of a time series process are more desirable than more
complex ones if both are adequate. This principle leads to the use of mixed
ARMA models, rather than just pure AR or pure MA models. The principleof parsimony will be further appreciated when the common occurrence ofoutliers in time series is taken into consideration. While a large number ofinteresting topics may be presented regarding the building and applicationof ARIMA models (Engel, Haugh and Pagan, 2005).
As to the problem of prediction, there are many possible ways toforecast a time series. The main emphasis of forecasting techniquespresented thus far is on the methods explicitly based on time series models
such as ARIMA and transfer function models. Various ad hoc methods,
including those using moving averages and weighted smoothing, had beenin use long before model-based forecasting methods were widely accepted.
With the understanding of their relationships, we can better understand thestrength and limitation of traditional forecasting methods, and consider the
direction of improvement for forecasting in using such methodology. Some
traditional forecasting methods were developed based on statistical theory,
while most others were developed mainly based on empirical experiences.
These methods share a similar characteristic. That is, the forecasts are based
essentially on smoothing (averaging) past values of a time series using some
type of weighting scheme. Time series methods are employed assuming thatrecent periods are the best predictors of the future. Averaging methods aredeveloped based on an average of weighted observations. Smoothing
methods are based on averaging past values of a series in a decreasing(exponential) manner (DeJong, Liesenfeld and Richard, 2005) .
That is to say, times series analysis is the method that based on thehistorical records to build model and then make statistical inference for
future development. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying thedependence among observations at different points in time. The model will
be different because of the sampled data quality and the estimate method.
Because of the complexity and uncertainty of the real world, thecharacteristics of time series will change probably in coming periods. So
improving the adaptability of the model is necessary. Therefore, the paper
A Method on Improving the Adaptability of Time Series Models and its Application in the Analysis of Public
Security681

October 2008, Beijing, China

will consider the problem to improve the adaptability of time series models.
It will also have a great impact on the predictive ability.
3. THE METHOD ON IMPROVING THE ADAPTABILITY OF
TIME SERIES MODELSIn this section, we will propose the method of revising time-series models
by using the errors between estimation values and real measurements toregulate the model. That is to say, we will use error feedback to revise theadaptability of the models. So, first, we introduce the form of space state ontime series model. And then we consider the possibility of using feedback
control for the state space model. At last, we give the method for revising
the model.
3.1 The state space form of time series models

For the sake of simplicity, we consider only the form of ARMA model,
the general form of ARMA can be described as follows.
y (i � n) � p n �1 y (i � n � 1) � � � p1 y (i � 1) � p 0 y (i )(2)
� q n �1u (i � n � 1) � � � q1u (i � 1) � q 0 u (i )where y(k ) is the output, u (k ) is the input, p1 , p 2 , � , p n and q1 , q 2 , � , q n
are given constants. In order to get the state space form of time series model(2), we should choose the state variables as follows (Gong, 1988).
x1 ( i ) � y ( i ) � c 0 u ( i )(3a)� x1 (i � 1) � x 2 (i ) � c1u (i )����
� x n �1 (i � 1) � xn (i ) � cn �1u (i )�� x n (i � 1) � � p 0 x1 (i ) � � � p n �1 x n (i ) � c n u (i )(3b)where c1 , c 2 , � , c n are coefficients needed to be given.
Replacing the variables (3a) (3b) into (2), and comparing thecoefficients of u (k ), u (k � 1), � , u (k � n) , we can get the following results about
the coefficients.
c 0 � q n �1

�c1 � q n� 2 � p n�1c0
�c � q � p c � p c
� 2n �3n� 2 0n �1 1�.........
���c n � q0 � p0 c0 � p1c1 � ........ � p n�1c n�1(4)

So, we can translate (2) into the following matrix form
� x1 ( k � 1) � � 0
�
� � �
�
�
���
� x n �1 (k � 1) � � 0
�
� ��
�
x
(
k
1
)
� n
� � � p0

682

1

� p1

� � x1 ( k ) � � c1 �
��
�
� �
�
�� � � � � ��u (t )
1 � � x n�1 (k ) � � c n �1 ������
� � p n �1 �� � x n ( k ) � �� c n ��

(5a)

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and� x1 ( k ) ���� x 2 (k ) �� � �y (k ) � �1 0 0 � 0 0��� � c 0 u (t )
� 0 �
� 0 �
� xn ( k ) �
�
�

(5b)

where (5a) is the state space of (2), (5b) is the output equation,

c1 , c 2 , � , c n can be decided by (4).

3.2 The characteristics of error feedbacks and some related results

From the viewpoint of control theory we know, the characteristics offeedbacks are something like that it can improve the performance theclosed-loop system by using the error to regulate the system. That is thereason why we use error feedback to revise the adaptability of the model.
Now, we consider the following general form of linear system
X ( k � 1) � AX ( k ) � Bu ( k )(6)in which x(0) is given.
We hope to choose the control series {u (k )} such that, as k � � , theerror vector x( k ) � x * ( k ) will convergence to zero. In such a circumstance,
the error of real output and the required output will also convergence to zero.
In doing so, here we use the conclusion about pole assignment (Gong, 1988).
Theorem 1: Consider the following linear system(7)
where X (t ) � R n . If there exists a feedback control law which has formof from state to input as follows
X ( k � 1) � AX ( k ) � Bu ( k )u (k ) � KX (k ) � w(k )such that the following closed-loop system
X (k � 1) � ( A � BK ) X (k ) � Bw(k )

(8)
(9)

has the poles at the given positions of the complex plane, the sufficiency
and necessary condition is that the system of (7) is controllability.
3.3 The realization of adaptability of time series models

For a time series model, such as (2), we can always introduce thevariable � t � X t � X t* , in which X t* is the estimated one by using the model(2) and X t is the observed one. And we can get the error system about � t .
In such case, we can turn the problem of revising the model into the
problem of regulating of error system. That is to say, we should find theregulation way to revise the error system, such that � t � 0 .
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For the given model such as (2), we get the following error system� t � �1� t �1 � � � p � t � p � � t � �1� t �1 � � 2� t � 2 � � � � q� t � q(10)Under certain circumstances, we can mend the system in following ways.
Firstly, change the model (10) into model (5), and get the state
equation and its output equation like (5a) and (5b).
Secondly, judge the controllability of system (5), that is, the rank of
the controllability matrix of Pc � [ B AB A 2 B � A n � 2 B A n �1 B ] is n or not.
Thirdly, introduce the feedback if the system is controllability. Letu ( k ) � KX ( k ) � w( k ) , where K � ( k1 , k 2 , � , k n ) . Calculate the characteristicroots of characteristic equation p( s ) �| sI � ( A � BK ) |� 0 . And suppose thecoefficients of p( s) � 0 are equal to the required coefficients of thecharacteristic equation determined by the given poles, we can get the gains
matrix K � (k 1 , k 2 , � , k n ) . Then the original system (5) is changed intoX ( k � 1) � ( A � BK ) X ( k ) � Bw(k )(11)
The new system of (11) is the revised system. And it is stability. Thatis the model we want.
It is the error regulation that the model has the adaptability, and it canalso improve the prediction ability of the model. When the original system(5) is observability, the revised problem can also be solved in the similarway.
4. SOME ACTUAL CASES STUDIESIn this section, we hope to demonstrate the efficiency of the method byproviding some of the actual cases studies. We will consider the modellingof time series about the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the method
given above. The sample data can be found form the main page of theStatistics Bureau of Chinese Government network, and the sample period of
GDP is form 1978 to 2006.
4.1 The modelling of the time series
4.1.1 The preprocessing of the sample data
From the scatter diagram of the sample data, we can see that the series
on the GDP of per person ( GDPPt ) has the tendency in the exponential form.
Therefore, by taking the logarithm, we can get the new series about the
sample data i.e. ln(GDPPt ) . From its scatter diagram we know that,ln(GDPPt ) will increase in linear form. So, here we build the regression
model of ln(GDPPt ) related with time. And then we consider the timeseries model on the error ( � t ) of ln (GDPPt ) � ln (GDPPt �1 ) . In order tocompare the method given above with the common time series method, we
will leave the data of 2006 for comparison.

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4.1.2 The identification of the model
From the graph of the autocorrelative function (ACF) and the partial
autocorrelative function (PACF) of � t we know that the PACF of � t is
truncated after t � 2 . And its autocorrelative function is with certain tailed.
Therefore, we choose AR(2) as the model of the series of � t .
4.1.3 The parameters estimation of AR(2)Using the software of E-Views (Gao, 2005), we can get the following
estimation results.

Table 1: The estimation results of parameters in AR(2) of � t
Dependent Variable: E
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

AR(1)
AR(2)

1.573143-0.795453

0.124011
0.123491

12.68549-6.441375

0.00000.0000R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Inverted AR Roots

0.914576
0.910862
0.039620
0.03610446.27946.79 -.42i

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat-0.005456
0.132703-3.542357-3.444847
1.731761.79+.42i

Therefore, we can get the model of AR(2) as follows.
� t � 1.573� t �1 � 0.795� t �2 � � t
The predict model is the one as follows.

(12)

(13)
Based on the calculation we know that the characteristic roots of thecharacteristic equation of (12) � ( B) � 1 � 1.573B � 0.795B 2 � 0 are all inthe unit circle. So the model of (12) is more stationary than the model ofAR(2) .
GDPPt � exp(5.651 � 0.144t � 1.573� t �1 � 0.795� t �2 � � t )4.2 The revision of the model
4.2.1 Getting the state space form
We can translate the form (12) into the following form. From the timeseries modely ( k � 2) � 1.573 y ( k � 1) � 0.795 y ( k ) � u (k � 2)

we letx1 ( k ) � y ( k ) � c 0 u ( k )A Method on Improving the Adaptability of Time Series Models and its Application in the Analysis of Public
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October 2008, Beijing, China
� x1 ( k � 1) � x 2 ( k ) � c1 u ( k )�� x 2 ( k � 1) � � 0 . 795 x1 ( k ) � 1 . 573 x 2 ( k ) � c 2 u ( k )Comparing the coefficients of u (k ) , we can get the coefficients c .
�c 0 � 1�� c1 � 1 . 573
� c � 1 .679
� 2

Therefore, we can get its state space form as follows.
0� x1 ( k � 1) � ����� � ��
� x 2 ( k � 1) � � � 0 . 795

� � x1 ( k ) � � 1 . 573 �������u ( k )1 . 573 �� �� x 2 ( k ) �� �� 1 .679 ��1

� x (k ) ��� � u ( k )0 ��� 1
� x 2 (k ) �y ( k ) � �1

4.2.2 The judgement of controllability
It is easy to get the controllable

as Pc � �B

� 1 . 573
AB � � ��
� 1 . 679

(14a)

(14b)

matrixof(14)

1 . 679 �
� . Because det(Pc ) � 0 , Pc is a matrix
1 . 39 ��with full rank. Therefore, the states of model (14) are controllability.

4.2.3 Determining the form of feedback control
From the theory of linear system, we get the feedback in the following
form u ( k ) � KX ( k ) � w ( k ) , where K � �k1 k 2 � , then the state space form
is as follows
X ( k � 1) � ( A � BK ) X (k ) � Bw( k )(15)Then the characteristic equation is� � 1 . 573 k 1
� 1 � 1 . 679 k 2
� I � ( A � BK ) �� 0 (1)
0 . 795 � 1 . 679 k 1 � � 1 . 573 � 1 . 679 k 2

Suppose the poles are �1 � 0, � 2 � 0.795 , then p (� ) � � 2 � 0.795� . Let
the relevant coefficients of the two characteristic equations are equa1, we
can get k1 � 0.573, k 2 � �1 . Let K � �0.573 � 1� , and instead it into equation(1), we can get the following new system
� x1 ( k � 1) � � 0 . 901 � 0 . 573 � � x1 ( k ) � � 1 . 573 ��� � ���� � ��
���� u ( k ) (1a)�� ��� x 2 ( k � 1) � � 0 . 167 � 0 . 106 � � x 2 ( k ) � � 1 . 679 �y ( k ) � �1

Becauseofthe� x (k ) ��� � u ( k )0 ��� 1
x
(
k
)
�
� 2

poles

of

matrix(1b)
� 0.901 � 0.573 �����
� 0.167 � 0.106 �are�1 � 0, � 2 � 0.795 , which are all in an unit circle�then the system is stable.

We can get the new revised model of (14) in the following input andoutput formy (k � 2) � 1.007 y (k � 1) � 0.263 y (k ) � w(k � 2)
Then the revised model of (12) can expressed in the form as follows.

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� t � 1.007� t �1 � 0.263� t �2 � � t(18)Form some calculation we know that the characteristic equation of(1) is � ( B) � 1 � 1.007 B � 0.263B 2 � 0 , and its roots will be in an unit
circle. Then the AR(2) model described by (1) is stable. Therefore, we get
the predict equation as follows.
GDPPt � exp(5.651 � 0.144t � 1.007� t �1 � 0.263� t � 2 � � t )(1)4.3 The check and predict of model

In order to compare the results before and after the revision � we
calculate �1 � � ' � � and � 2 � � '' � � , the first one is the result of before
revision, the second one is the result of after the revision, and the figures are
as follows.






 


















Figure : The scatter diagrams of �1 � � ' � �






 


















Figure : The scatter diagrams of � 2 � � '' � �From the comparison we know that, the revised model (19) is more
precise than the model (13) in simulating the sinuous of � t .
Now, we predict the result of 2006’ GDPP. Replace the value into themodel (13) we can get GDPPt � 16789.3 . The error is 4.38% < 5%. And put
the value into model (19) we can get GDPPt � 16627.14 . The error is 3.38%< 5%. Therefore, the model (19) is better than the model (13). The newmodel can be more precise to simulate the real sinuous of � t .

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It should be noted that for the same kind sample data we can use
different time series methods for the model. In this example, we use thedifference of ln (GDPPt ) � ln (GDPPt �1 ) to build the model. We can also build
the model by using other time-series methods, and then to revise the models.
For other kinds of models, we can still use the method discussed above.
5. CONCLUSION

The adaptability of time-series models is the important aspect for time series
analysis. Therefore, to improve the adaptability is one of the important
aspects for time series analysis. This paper provides the useful method forsuch kind of problem by using error feedbacks. For other kinds of timeseries models we can also revise the model by using the method above. It
needs further consideration when the system is uncontrollable.
Acknowledgement. Here, the author would like to thankMr. Ou Weiqiang for his contributing on some of the actual case analysis.
REFERENCES

Chatfield, C., 2004. The Analysis of Time Series, Chapman & Hall.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. C., 1994. Time Series
Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd Edition, Pearson Education
Asia Limited and Posts & Telecommunications Press.
Thoma, M. A. and Wilson, W. W., 2007. Market adjustments overtransportation networks: a time series analysis of grain movements on
the mississippi inland waterway system ᧨ Journal of Transport
Economics and Policy, Vol. 41, Part 2, pp. 149–171.
Tang, X., 2001. Time Series forecasting of quarterly barge grain tonnage on
the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River navigation system, Journal of theTransportation Research Forum, 40, 91–108.
DeJong, D.N., Liesenfeld, R., and Richard, J. F., 2005. A nonlinear
forecasting model of GDP growth, Review of Economics and Statistics
87: 697-708.
Engel, J., Haugh, D. and Pagan, A., 2005. Some methods for assessing theneed for non-linear models in business cycles, International Journalof Forecasting 21: 651-662.
Zhang Shujing, and Qi Lixin, 2003. The Concise Course on Time Series
Analysis [M]. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing Jiaotong University
Press, Beijing.
Li Zinai, and Pan Wenqing, 2005. Metro-economics, (Second Edition) [M].
Higher Education Press, Beijing.
Gong De-en, 1988. The Introduction on Economics Control [M]. Renmin
University of China Press, Beijing.
Gao Tiemei, 2005. The Method and Modelling on Metrieconomics
Analysis——EViews Applications and Examples [M]. Tsinghua
University Press, Beijing.

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RISK ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL-SCALE
NATURAL DISASTERTAIPING CHANG
Department of Construction Engineering, National Kaohsiung First
University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
tpchang@ccms.nkfust.edu.tw
ABSTRACT
Most policy makers adopt the global maps of natural hazard
occurrence and risk in the decision-making process. The ranking ofcountries or regions by relative exposure provides a system for natural
hazard mitigation and risk management. However, the calculations
underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability
and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highlyvariable from region to region, and may hinder the application of global
rankings to regional decision making. In the present study, we summarize arecent integration of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data by
the World Bank's “Hotspots” project and describe the advantages anddifficulties in such an approach. We also make several suggestions for more
highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses.
1. INTRODUCTION
The decision process based on risk assessment, combined with anappreciation of local circumstances and institutional capacity is absolutely
needed for the policy maker (Godschalk et al., 1999). However, it isdifficult to make risk comparisons across regions or nations without asystematic approach both to the methodologies of natural hazard risk
assessment and the underlying observations of natural hazard occurrence,
severity and direct and indirect losses.
Here, we summarize one approach to the development of an evidencebase for risk-based decision-making for multiple natural hazards on a global
scale. The approach published by Dilley et al., (2005; see also Arnold et al.,2006; hereafter “Hotspots”) is being used by several organizations,
including the United Nations and The World Bank, to support enhanced risk
reduction efforts and disaster risk management. On one hand, the historicalcompleteness, availability and quality of global hazard, vulnerability andloss data make this a difficult task (Dilley et al., 2005). On the other hand,the available global data do make it possible to estimate the relative
exposure of populations and economic activity to different natural hazards.
Despite “Hotspots” is an advance, but it also signifies specific needs formore research, standardized data procurement and more highly resolved
regional and sub-national analyses. The main purpose of this paper is topresent a summary of recent work on global-scale natural hazard risks andits role in supporting disaster risk management. We also summarize some of689

October 2008, Beijing, China

the deficiencies in the data analyses, and suggest some tactics for making
the improvement in disaster risk identification and assessment.
2. ESTIMATION OF MULTI-HAZARD OCCURRENCE AND
SEVERITYOne recent study, by The World Bank (the Hotspots study), has combined
estimates of multiple natural hazard occurrence with suitable exposure
proxies for risk. In particular, it combines hazard occurrence and severity,
population and economic data, and loss data to derive relative risk estimates.
Therefore, in the present study the summary is achieved based on the
Hotspots study only. The Hotspots study estimates global relative risk using
proxies based on the geographic distribution of population density andeconomic productivity sampled on a latitude and longitude grid. The raw
data used in this analysis has been coded onto a regular grid of sphericalquadrilaterals according to latitude and longitude. The geographic
distribution of past occurrence and severity of hazards is calculated for six
geophysical and weather-related phenomena (earthquakes, landslides,
volcanoes, storms, floods and drought) and sorted into deciles. The
individual hazard deciles are added to calculate an aggregate multi-hazard
index for different combinations of hazards. After Hotspots and references,
Table 1 lists the data used in the hazards.
The difficulty in combining multiple hazards into one multi-hazard
index is obvious in the various measures of severity, periods of observationand spatial resolution given in Table 1. Generally these quantities reflect anunderlying single-hazard analysis and specialized scientific understandingof the hazard phenomena rather than an attempt to produce a uniform hazard
severity index. One approach to multi-hazard indexing is to develop robust
measures of the geographic extent and duration of a particular hazard
occurrence, thus integrating the severity of the event in space and time sothat it can be linked to measures of human impacts.
Table 1: Summary of data sources for hazards discussed in text

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3.
3. ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION OF
OF MULTI-HAZARD
MULTI-HAZARD EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
The
The Hotspots
Hotspots study
study used
used 20
20 years
years ofof loss
loss data
data (EM-DAT)(EM-DAT) compiled
compiled byby thetheCentrefor
Researchonthe
EpidemiologyofDisasters(CRED;
Sapir
andCentre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED; Sapir andMission,Mission, 1992)
1992) andand otherother sources
sources toto computecompute historicalhistorical loss
loss rate
rate coefficients.
coefficients.
These
loss
rates
were
then
used
to
computepotential
These loss rates were then used to compute potential mortality
mortality andandeconomic
loss
using
griddedpopulation
density
and
GDP
per
unit
area
economic loss using gridded population density2 and GDP per unit area for
for
2000,
2000, gridded
gridded on
on 2.5�×2.5�
2.5�×2.5� cells
cells (roughly(roughly 1414 km
km2 onon average).
average). The
The absoluteabsolute
economic
economic loss
loss estimatesestimates were
were also
also normalized
normalized by
by GDP
GDP toto provide
provide aa more
more
appropriate
appropriate measure
measure ofof relative
relative impact
impact Table
Table 22 lists
lists thethe socio-economic
socio-economic data
data
used
in
the
loss
calculation.
used in the loss calculation.
As
As donedone inin Hotspots,
Hotspots, thethe calculation
calculation ofof mortality
mortality andand economic
economic loss
loss
from
an
empirical
loss
rate
analysisatglobalscales
is
rough
since
it
neglects
from an empirical loss rate analysis at global scales is rough since it neglects
more
more precise
precise estimatesestimates ofof physicalphysical fragilities
fragilities andand socialsocial vulnerabilities
vulnerabilities
where
they
exist.
Such
estimates
maybeavailableonwhere they exist. Such estimates may be available on regional
regional oror urbanurban
scales,however,
atpresent,
there
is
no
globally
uniform
assessment
scales, however, at present, there is no globally uniform assessment ofofvulnerabilities.
vulnerabilities. The
The raw
raw gridded
gridded socio-economic
socio-economic data
data isis masked
masked soso thatthat
areas
areas with
with low
low population
population density
density but
but highhigh agricultural
agricultural productivity
productivity areareincluded.
This
mask
is
shown
in
Figure1.
included. This mask is shown in Figure1.
Table
Table 2:
2: Summary
Summary ofof datadata sources
sources used
used forfor mortality
mortality andand economic
economic loss
loss
calculation(after
Hotspots,
T
able
3.4,
p.31
corrected)
calculation (after Hotspots, T able 3.4, p.31 corrected)

Figure 1:
1: Depiction
Depiction ofof predominantpredominant agriculture
agriculture type,type, use
use asas activity
activity mask
mask
Figureforhazardexposurecalculation.
Data
from
FAO/UN.
See
Hotspotsforfor hazard exposure calculation. Data from FAO/UN. See Hotspots for full
full
referencereference

Risk
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Assessment ofof Global-Scale
Global-Scale Natural
Natural Disaster
Disaster

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4. SUMMARY OF HOTSPOTS MORTALITY AND ECONOMICLOSS ESTIMATIONSIn Figure 2, the total masked population exposed to the six natural hazards
is presented. Table 3 shows the population and land area included in the top
three deciles of hazard occurrence and severity. Figure 2 and Table 3
together illustrate the relative level of population exposure for different
hazards. As it can be found from Table 3, around 2.3 billion people areexposed to flood hazards, nearly half that number are exposed to drought,
and half that again are exposed to cyclones. Geophysical hazards including
earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides together account for potential
exposed population slightly less than the exposure to cyclones. These
comparisons may have implications for the weight given to mitigation andpreparedness policies for specific hazards. For example, Figure 3 presents
population density as a function of hazard decile for each of the included
hazards. High population densities and hazard severity are correlated forvolcanoes, cyclones and floods. In Figure 4, the estimated mortality for thesix included hazards is presented. The figure actually verifies the traditional
knowledge that significant mortality arises in regions exposed to constantflooding and severe storms, especially along eastern continental coastlines.
A somehow serious result is the magnitude of drought mortality, especiallyin sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Similarly, total economic loss is mapped by compiling existing
economic loss data against the frequency and severity of hazard occurrence.
Hotspots total economic loss is shown in Figure 5.
The total economic loss normalized by gridded economic activity may be amore relevant measure of the importance of hazard mitigation todevelopment, and supplies a general risk proxy for comparing regional
exposure. Hotspots economic loss normalized by sub-national GDP isshown in Figure 6
Figures. 4-6 provide quantitative support for the qualitative
conclusions that populations near coasts are most exposed to hydrometeorological hazards while those near mountain belts and active tectonic
areas are most exposed to geological hazards. Significant areas of subSaharan Africa are exposed to drought. Elsewhere, the most significant
exposures to geophysical events occur where population density or
economic activity intersect with active tectonic boundaries.
As indicated in Hotspots (Chapter 7), 35 countries have more than 5% of
their population living in areas identified as relatively high in mortality risk
from three or more hazards. Ninety-six countries have more than 10% of
their population in areas at risk from two or more hazards. One hundred andsixty countries have more than one-fourth of their population in areas at
relatively high mortality risk from one or more hazards. Many of the areas
at higher risk of economic loss from multiple hazards are associated withhigher-than-average densities of GDP, that is, there is a relatively highdegree of exposure of economically productive areas.

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Table
Table 3:
3: Characteristics
Characteristics ofof high-hazard
high-hazard areas
areas byby hazard:
hazard: top
top three
three deciles
deciles(after
Table
4.1,
Hotspots,
P.43)(after Table 4.1, Hotspots, P.43)

Figure 2:
2: (after(after Hotspots)
Hotspots) Multiple
Multiple hazard
hazard population
population exposure
exposure on
on 5”
5” xx 5”5”
Figuregrid,
showing
top
3
deciles
(top
30%)
of
severityforseveralhazardgrid, showing top 3 deciles (top 30%) of severity for several hazard
combinations
combinations

Figure 3:
3: Population
Population density
density as
as aa function
function hazard
hazard decile
decileFigure(occurrence/severity), showing
showing especially
especially strong
strong correlations
correlations between
between(occurrence/severity),
densityandvolcano,cyclone,andflood
serverity
density and volcano, cyclone, and flood serverity

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Natural Disaster
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Figure 4: Hotspots mortality calculation for various hazard combinations

Figure 5: Aggregated economic loss

Figure 6: Aggregate economic loss normalized by distributed GDP.

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FigureFigure 7:
7: Exposure,
Exposure, mortality,
mortality, andand total
total GDP
GDP andand normalized
normalized GDP
GDP lossloss forfor
Pakistanandsurrounding
countries,
using
the
Hotspots
data
compilation
Pakistan and surrounding countries, using the Hotspots data compilationandand computed
computed after
after thethe 88 October
October 2005,
2005, magnitude
magnitude == 7.6
7.6 earthquake,
earthquake,
Epicenterofearthquake
shown
by
red
dot.
Epicenter of earthquake shown by red dot.
5.
5. THEMESTHEMES IN
IN THETHE GLOBALGLOBAL ANALYSISANALYSISTheThe global
global integration
integration ofof existing
existing andand compiled
compiled hazard
hazard andand lossloss data
data isis valid
valid
only
only insofar
insofar asas thethe fundamental
fundamental data
data isis comprehensive
comprehensive andand accurate.
accurate. Global
Globalcompilations
compilations should
should have
have uniform
uniform resolution
resolution andand accuracy,
accuracy, which
which
sometimes
sometimes forces
forces them
them toto bypass
bypass thethe contributions
contributions ofof moremore highly
highly resolved
resolvedoror accurate
accurate results
results available
available forfor smaller
smaller regions,regions, countries
countries oror cities.
cities.
The
The occurrence
occurrence ofof thethe Pakistan
Pakistan earthquake
earthquake inin October
October 2005
2005 illustrates
illustrates
thisproblem,
as
well
as
the
need
to
incorporate
more
locally
this problem, as well as the need to incorporate more locally accurate
accuratescientificunderstandingof
hazardphenomena.
Figure7
depictsthescientific understanding of hazard phenomena. Figure 7 depicts the global
globalhazardhazard exposure
exposure results
results forfor central
central Asia,
Asia, calculated
calculated using
using thethe Hotspots
Hotspots data
data
compilation,
along
with
the
epicenteroftheearthquake.
The
globallycompilation, along with the epicenter of the earthquake. The globally
uniform
uniform approach
approach uses
uses thethe past
past occurrence
occurrence ofof large
large events
events as
as indicators
indicators ofofpotential
hazard.
The
globalcatalogs
arereasonably
uniformaboveacertainpotential hazard. The global catalogs are reasonably uniform above a certain
magnitude
magnitude level,
level, but
but areare not
not necessarily
necessarily thethe best
best indicators
indicators ofof potential
potential
earthquake
activity
inaparticularlocation.
Earthquakesareamanifestation
earthquake activity in a particular location. Earthquakes are a manifestationofof dynamic
dynamic earth
earth processes,
processes, which
which areare illuminatedilluminated byby comprehensive
comprehensive
regional
analysis
performed
bygeologists
andseismologists.
regional analysis performed by geologists and seismologists. Often
Often this
thisanalysis
integratesarefinedstudyofearthquake
patterns
andmappedanalysis integrates a refined study of earthquake patterns and mapped
geology.
geology. In
In thethe casecase ofof Pakistan,
Pakistan, Seeber
Seeber andand Armbruster
Armbruster (1979)(1979) performed
performedsuchananalysisonthepatternsof
small
earthquakes
observed
such an analysis on the patterns of small earthquakes observed on
on aa
temporary
local
deploymentofearthquake
monitoring
instruments.
temporary local deployment of earthquake monitoring instruments. Such
Such
data
would
not
necessarily
appearontheglobalcatalogs
used
for
the
globaldata would not necessarily appear on the global catalogs used for the global
synthesis.
synthesis. Seeber
Seeber andand Armbruster
Armbruster argued
argued forfor thethe potential
potential failure
failure ofof thethe fault
fault
segmentthatultimately
rupturedinthecatastrophic
earthquake
in2005.
segment that ultimately ruptured in the catastrophic earthquake in 2005.
It
It isis quitequite exciting
exciting thethe mortality
mortality analysis
analysis shown
shown inin Figure
Figure 77 isis aa
relatively
accurate
depictionofactualmortality,whichsuggests
that
relatively accurate depiction of actual mortality, which suggests that the
the

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mortality “rate” calculation based on historical analysis may accurately
represent actual human vulnerability in regions with similar socio-economic
parameters. The economic loss predictions are less accurate, which suggeststhat more attention needs to be given to defining and characterizing theappropriate economic indicators and other social vulnerabilities in suchregions.
6. USING THE GLOBAL MAPS
Generally speaking, the hazard mitigation, disaster risk reduction and risk
transfer all require overarching approaches customized and implemented at
a local level. To do this requires a deep understanding of the vulnerabilities
and hazard phenomenology specific to a region, country, city or otherlocation. Global exposure maps cannot provide this level of detail; however,globally consistent analysis can be used to assess the relative importance of
hazard exposure on a regional basis, and to identify regions where moredetailed analysis is needed.
The primary purpose of global risk maps is to develop a sense ofurgency and rational policy making within the global development
community. A quantitative, relative ranking of exposure by country, city or
regionally allows an informed, evidence-based inclusion of natural hazard
exposure risk in country development strategies. This is confirmed byseveral evidence of inclusion of hazards risk assessment in Country
Assistance Strategies and Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers by both The
World Bank and the UN.
The global maps provide a consistent baseline assessment of natural
hazard exposure, and thus are a starting point for more detailed regional
studies. In some countries, the need for national assessments has alreadybeen recognized, and more detailed studies have been performed. Elsewhere,
detailed regional assessments and the national capacity to perform them do
not exist. The global maps provide the logic for initiating new regional
studies and compiling existing ones.
7. CONCLUSIONSThe consequence of global hazard and risk mapping efforts should be arenewed emphasis on constructing the scientific and technical capacity toassess, monitor and predict hazard. Hazard assessment must be confirmed inenhanced scientific and technical collaborations, geophysical monitoringand data exchange at national and regional scales, and international
communication of scientific results. Needless to say, there must be
institutional mechanisms for combining these individual efforts into overallrisk assessments and hazard mitigation planning. Generating this capacity ispossible, but preserving this capacity is best accomplished by developing
the fundamental educational and research institutions and civil institutions
in high-risk developing regions.
The global maps should also be adopted to launch regional, countrylevel and urban multi-hazard risk assessments. The global synthesis

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ICUS Report
Report 31
31

providesprovides only
only aa baseline,
baseline, which
which isis neverthelessnevertheless useful
useful forfor conducting
conducting
international
interest
andsupportinfurther
assessment.
The
framework
international interest and support in further assessment. The framework ofofcollaborations
collaborations neededneeded forfor continuing
continuing thethe global
global syntheses
syntheses also
also isis aa
framework
framework forfor sharing
sharing methodologies,
methodologies, best
best practices,
practices, raw
raw geophysicalgeophysical data
data
andand otherother information
information neededneeded toto designdesign andand implement
implement risk
risk reduction
reduction tactics.
tactics.
REFERENCESREFERENCES
Arnold,Arnold, M.,
M., Chen,Chen, R.S.,
R.S., Deichmann,
Deichmann, U.,
U., Dilley,
Dilley, M.,
M., Lerner-Lam,
Lerner-Lam, A.L.,
A.L.,
Pullen,R.E.,
Trohanis,Z.
(Eds.),
2006.
NaturalPullen, R.E., Trohanis, Z. (Eds.), 2006. Natural Disaster
Disaster Hotspots:
Hotspots:
Case
Case Studies,
Studies, Disaster
Disaster Risk
Risk Management
Management Series
Series No.
No. 6.
6. TheThe World
World
Bank
Bank Hazard
Hazard Management
Management Unit,
Unit, Washington,
Washington, DC,
DC, 184pp.
184pp.
Dilley,Dilley, M.,
M., Chen,Chen, R.S.,
R.S., Deichmann,
Deichmann, U.,
U., Lerner-Lam,
Lerner-Lam, A.L.,
A.L., Arnold,
Arnold, M.,
M.,
Agwe,
Agwe, J.,
J., Buys,
Buys, P.,
P., Kjekstad,
Kjekstad, O.,
O., Lyon,
Lyon, B.,
B., Yetman,
Yetman, G.,
G., 2005.
2005. Natural
NaturalDisasterDisaster Hotspots:
Hotspots: A
A GlobalGlobal Risk
Risk Analysis,
Analysis, Disaster
Disaster Risk
Risk
Management
Series,
No.
5.
The
World
Bank
HazardManagement
Management Series, No. 5. The World Bank Hazard Management
Unit,
Unit, Washington,
Washington, DC,
DC, 132pp.
132pp.
D.R.
Godschalk,
T.
Beatley,
D.R. Godschalk, T. Beatley, P.
P. Berke,
Berke, D.J.
D.J. Brower,
Brower, E.J.
E.J. Kaiser,
Kaiser, C.C.
C.C. Bohl
Bohl
and
R.M.
Goebel,NaturalHazardMitigation:
Recastingand R.M. Goebel, Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting Disaster
Disaster
PolicyPolicy andand Planning,
Planning, Island
Island Press,
Press, Washington,
Washington, DC
DC (1999)(1999) (575pp.).
(575pp.).
D.G.
D.G. Sapir
Sapir andand C.
C. Misson,
Misson, The
The development
development ofof aa databasedatabase on
on disasters,
disasters,
Disasters
16(1)(1992),
pp.
74–80.
Disasters 16 (1) (1992), pp. 74–80.
Seeber,Seeber, L.,
L., Armbruster,Armbruster, J.,
J., 1979.
1979. In:
In: Farah,
Farah, A.,
A., DeJong,
DeJong, K.,
K., (Eds.),(Eds.),
Seismicity
oftheHazaraArc
inNorthern
Pakistan:
Decollement
Seismicity of the Hazara Arc in Northern Pakistan: Decollement vs.
vs.
Basement
Faulting
inGeodynamics
ofPakistan,
GSP
Quetta,pp.
131–
Basement Faulting in Geodynamics of Pakistan, GSP Quetta, pp. 131–
142.
142.
Skorik,Skorik, A.,
A., Isanuk,
Isanuk, M.,
M., Lerner-Lam,
Lerner-Lam, A.,
A., 2004.
2004. Time-varying
Time-varying multi-hazard
multi-hazard
index
using
empirical
methods,
EOS
Transactionsindex using empirical methods, EOS Transactions AGU,
AGU, 85(47),85(47), Fall
Fall
Meeting
Supplement,
Abstract
PA23A-1445.
Meeting Supplement, Abstract PA23A-1445.
Schumm,Schumm, S.
S. A.,A., Mosley,
Mosley, M.
M. P.,
P., andand Weaver,Weaver, W.
W. E.,
E., 1987.
1987. Experimental
Experimental
geomorphology:
the
study
of
small
landforms.
John
Wiley,
geomorphology: the study of small landforms. John Wiley, New
New York.
York.

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Global-Scale Natural
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MODEL TESTS ON THE BEHAVIOUR
OF FLEXIBLE BURIED PIPE IN SANDYBACKFILL WITH INSUFFICIENTCOMPACTIONREIKO KUWANO1 and DONG HEE KO2International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering,
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japankuwano@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
1

ABSTRACT
In order to investigate effects of state of backfill soil on the behaviorof buried flexible pipe under cyclic loading, a series of model test was
performed in a small sand chamber. Small load cells were installed in themodel pipe to obtain the distribution of acting stresses on the pipe.
The acting stress on the crown and the base of the pipe was notably
large due to the stress concentration, and a big amount of residual stress on
the base was remained after cyclic loading. Cyclic loading seemed tomagnify the stress concentration. The horizontal stresses acting on the sideof the pipe gradually decreased as the number of applied cyclic loads. Thus,
increase in vertical stress and decrease of horizontal support result in softer
response and larger deformation of pipe. Those cyclic effects are bigger inthe loose ground than dense ground.
1. INTRODUCTION
The design of flexible buried pipes usually demands ensuring goodcompaction of backfill soil, as it is well known that their behavior is largely
governed by the properties of surrounding backfill. However, in practice, itdoes not seem to be always easy to secure the good compaction, because of
the congested and limited surrounding space.
The structural response of flexible buried pipes has been long
investigated since the pioneer work by Marston & Anderson (1913),
Spanglar (1941) and others. Extensive and systematic studies have been
recently carried out by Yoshimura et al. (1997) and Yoshimura & Tohda(1998), based on centrifuge testing. They were summarised as proposed
design charts constructed by the elastic FEM analysis in which the relative
stiffness of pipe to the surrounding soil was taken into account (Tohda &Yoshimura, 1999).
Most of the previous studies mainly focused on the response offlexible pipe under static loading. The behaviour of flexible pipe subjected
to cyclic loading has not been fully understood. In this research,699

October 2008, Beijing, China

experimental study has been conducted to examine effects of backfill soil
condition on the behaviour of flexible buried pipe under cyclic loading.
2. APPARATUS AND TEST METHOD
A series of model test was conducted applying three stress levels of cyclicloading to the model ground with a buried flexible pipe. A density ofbackfill soil was varied from loose to dense.
2.1 Model groundA model ground was constructed in a soil chamber of 46cm wide,
20cm long and 33cm high as schematically shown in Figure 1. Backfill
material used was Toyoura sand, uniform fine sand having a mean particle
size of 0.16mm. A model pipe was placed on the base layer of which a
relative density was 90%. Side and above the pipe were backfilled in thespecified density by the multiple seiving air pluviation method. Especiallyfor the dense ground condition, the backfill sand below the spring line of thepipe was well compacted in order to achieve the specified relative density of90%.

Figure 1: A small soil chamber and model ground
2.2 Model pipe
A PVC pipe (VU125: outer diameter of 140mm and thickness of
4.1mm) was used for a buried model pipe. Small load cells capable ofmeasuring both normal and shear forces were installed in the pipe in orderto evaluate acting pressures on the pipe surface at eight locations as shownin Figure 2. Strain gauges were attached in outer and inner surface of pipe in
addition to the measurement of vertical and horizontal diameter changes, toobtain the information on the pipe deformation.
A small load cell (LC), which was 52mm long, 5mm wide and 21mm
high, can measure both compression/tension and shear forces up to 98N
each. A photo of the LC is shown in Figure 3. A loading plate of 10mm by
20mm, made of PVC, was attached to the load cell. The LCs were installed
into the pipe using metal attachments stationed at the inner surface of thepipe. The gap between loading plate and the pipe which was 3mm in each

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direction in previous study (Kuwano and Miyashita, 2008) has been
modified to be twice in this test. In order to avoid sand grains fallingthrough this gap, a membrane with 0.1mm thickness was used to cover the
gap as shown in figure 2. It was confirmed that the reading of the LC was
not affected by the pipe deformation unless a force was acting on theloading plate of the LC.

Figure 2: A model pipe

Figure 3: A photo of load cell
2.3 Test method and conditions
Load was applied to the surface of model ground through a rigid plateof 42cm wide, so that the model ground was subjected to one dimensional
compression. A vertical pressure of 10kPa was applied first, which was
equivalent to overburden soil pressure of approximately 60cm. Then cyclicloading of three stress amplitude levels, 50kPa, 100kPa and 200kPa, wasapplied. Repeated loads were given 100 times at each stage. All
loading/unloading/reloading was made in a displacement control at a rate of±0.02mm/sec. The cyclic stress amplitude of 50kPa was roughly equivalent
to the live load used in the road design practice in Japan.
Backfill soil was made in dense and loose state. In one case, only theside of the pipe was backfilled in loose state, below and above the pipe wasmade in dense state. Test cases and their conditions are summarized inTable 1.
Table1: Test conditions
No.

Model ground

Cyclic loading

Case L
Case D

Dr=39%
Dr=90%
Base and above the pipe: Dr=90%
Side of the pipe: Dr=39%

100 times cyclic loadingwith stress amplitude of50, 100 and 200kPa,

Case DL

Model Tests on the Behaviour of Flexible Buried Pipe in Sandy Backfill with Insufficient Compaction

701

October 2008, Beijing, China

3. TEST RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
3.1 Effects of different backfill densities
Relationship between normal stresses acting on the pipe at the LC
location of 1, 3, 5 and 7, and displacements of pipe diameter for test case L
is shown in Figure 4. Vertical/normal stresses measured at LC1 and LC5 areplotted against a displacement of vertical diameter. Similar values wererecorded at LC3 and LC7 as the model was in the symmetric condition andthe average of these values is plotted against displacement of horizontal
diameter. In Figure 4, relationship between applied pressure anddisplacement/settlement of the ground surface is also shown. Test results ofcase D are shown in Figure 5 in the same manner.
Overall deformation of the pipe and the ground was notably larger incase L. Magnitude of stresses recorded at LC1, 5 are similar between case L
and D, even though the stress of LC1 in case L is a little bigger than appliedpressure due to stress concentration. While the value of stress at horizontal
direction (LC3 and LC7) was distinctively small in case D, because groundat side of the pipe was confined.
Stress distributions at the maximum and residual values at each cyclicloading stage are shown in Figures 6 and 7 for case L and D respectively. 1100max means the maximum value of stress at the 100th cycle of 1st
loading stage (50kPa) and 1-residual means that the residual value after the
1st cyclic loading stage (still subjected to 10kPa). The concentration ofstress at LC1 appears in the stress distribution as vertically upward
stretching oval shape in case L and D. It is also noted that the residual stressat LC5 increased as the cyclic loading progressed and remained with big
amounts for both case L and D.

����������������������������� ������ ���������� ���������� �����������������

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702

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31�������������������������� ������ ���������� ���������� �����������������

���� �����������
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��������� ����� � �Figure 5: Deformation and stresses acting on the surface of pipe andground in case D.

(a)Maximum stress(b)Residual stress

Figure 6: Distribution of normal stresses acting on the pipe surface incase L(a)Maximum stress(b)Residual stress

Figure 7: Distribution of normal stresses acting on the pipe surface incase D

Model Tests on the Behaviour of Flexible Buried Pipe in Sandy Backfill with Insufficient Compaction703

October 2008, Beijing, China

3.2 Effects of cyclic loading� ����������������������������������������� ��

In Figures 8 and 9, an average normal stress at LC3 and 7 is plottedagainst an average normal stress at LC1 and 5 for case L and D, respectively.
Normal stresses at LC3 and 7 are in the horizontal direction and those at
LC1 and 5 are in the vertical direction. A ratio of horizontal stress andvertical stress indicates a kind of earth pressure (K). In case L, thehorizontal and vertical stress ratio is around 0.74. In case D, the ratio isaround 0.27. The earth pressure in loose ground is much bigger than dense
ground.
The graph moves to right-down direction with increasing of cyclic
number. It is implied that normal stresses of the pipe in vertical direction
increase with increasing of cyclic number and those in horizontal direction
decrease with increasing of cyclic number. The cyclic effect (the amount of
the change) is bigger on the loose ground than dense ground.
������������
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�

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���

� ��������������������������������������� �������������������������������������������� ��

Figure 8: Normal stresses acting on the pipe in the horizontal and verticaldirections in case L.
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���

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Figure 9: Normal stresses acting on the pipe in the horizontal and verticaldirections in case D.

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3.3 Behavior in poorly compacted backfill
In the construction site, the compaction of backfill may not be always
easy, especially at the vicinity of pipe. In test case DL, considering such asituation, only the side of the pipe was backfilled in a loose state. The baselayer and above the pipe are made in a dense state as shown in Figure 10.
Stresses and displacement of the pipe and ground in case DL are shown in
Figure 11. Trend of acting stresses and resulting deformation was somehow
in between case L and D. But, significant stress concentration on the base
part of the pipe was observed. The stress distribution acting on the pipe wassimilar to that in case L, as shown in Figure 12.
Average values of stresses at LC1 and LC5 are plotted against verticaldisplacements of pipe diameter for all the test cases in Figure 13. The
inclination of the plots indicates a kind of stiffness of pipe response,reflecting also lateral confinement of backfill. Case D shows the stiffest pipe
response due to the strong support from the lateral backfill soil.

Figure 10: Model ground of poorly compacted backfill around a pipe.
�������������������������� ������ ���������� ���������� �����������������

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������������� ��� ��

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��������� ����� � �Figure 11: Deformation and stresses acting on the surface of pipe andground in case DL

Model Tests on the Behaviour of Flexible Buried Pipe in Sandy Backfill with Insufficient Compaction705

October 2008, Beijing, China(a)Maximum stress(b)Residual stress

Figure 12: Distribution of normal stresses acting on the pipe surface in caseDL������
�����������������������
������� ������������������� �������� ����� ��

���
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� ����������������� ���������������� ������� � �Figure 13: Comparison of stress-deformation relationship of pipe
4. SUMMARY
In order to investigate effects of backfill density state on the behavior ofburied flexible pipe under cyclic loading, a series of model test was
performed in a small soil chamber. Following conclusions were obtained.
(1) When a flexible pipe was buried in loose backfill soil, overall
deformation of the pipe and the ground was notably larger than in dense
backfill soil. And, the stress and displacement of the pipe in the horizontal
direction were relatively quite small in dense ground due to lateralconfinement of backfill. Besides, a big amount of residual stress on the base
part of the pipe was shown in all tests.
(2) When a buried pipe was applied by cyclic load, the acting stresseson the crown and base of the pipe are notably large due to the stressconcentration. Cyclic loading seemed to magnify the stress concentration.
The horizontal stresses acting on the side of the pipe gradually decrease as
the number of applied cyclic load. And these cyclic effects are bigger on theloose ground than dense ground.

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31(3) Considering the condition of construction site, the backfill was
made in a loose state only the side of the pipe. The characteristics of stressand strain distribution were similar to those in the loose backfill, while thenormal stress on the base part of the pipe was much large and the stressconcentration was significant.
REFERENCES
Marston, A. & Anderson, A.O. 1913. The theory of loads on pipes in ditches
and tests of cement and clay drain tile and sewer pipe. Bulletin 31,
Iowa Engineering Experiment Station, Iowa State College, Ames,
Iowa.
Spangler, M.G. 1941. The structural design of flexible pipe culverts.
Bulletin 153, Iowa Engineering Experiment Station, Iowa State
College, Ames, Iowa.
Tohda, J. & Yoshimura, H. 1999. Proposal of a rational design method forburied flexible pipes. Journal of Japanese Society of Civil Engineers,
No.617/3-46, pp.49-63 (in Japanese).
Yoshimura, H., Tohda, J. & Li, L. 1997. Experimental study on earthpressure and deformation of buried flexible pipes. Journal of JapaneseSociety of Civil Engineers, No.561/3-38, pp.245-255 (in Japanese).
Yoshimura, H. & Tohda, J. 1998. FE elastic analysis on mechanicalbehaviour of buried flexible pipes measured in centrifuge model tests.
Journal of Japanese Society of Civil Engineers, No.596/3-43, pp.175188 (in Japanese).
Kuwano, R. & Miyashita, T. 2008. Model Tests on Behaviour of Flexible
Buried Pipe in Sand with Different Densities, Proceeding ofInternational Geotechnical Conference on Development of Urban
Areas and Geotechnical Engineering, St. Petersburg (to appear)

Model Tests on the Behaviour of Flexible Buried Pipe in Sandy Backfill with Insufficient Compaction707

October 2008, Beijing, China

708

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE
EVALUATION OF LOOSENING
SURROUNDING A CAVITY IN SOIL
1

MARI SATO1and REIKO KUWANO2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan
2
International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering,
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japanmsato@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ABSTRACT
Damaged old sewer pipes are known to often cause void/cavity orloosening in the surrounding soil, which may lead to a cave-in in the road.
In this research, in order to understand the mechanism and governing
factors of cavity formation/expansion in the ground, a series of model tests
simulating flowout of soil through a crack/gap in a buried pipe wasconducted.
It was found that a cavity and surrounding loosening in the groundcan extend rapidly upward when the ground consists of poorly graded sand,especially when it is fully saturated. Quantitative evaluation was also given
to the loosening around a cavity.
1. INTRODUCTION
An old deteriorated sewer pipe, when it is damaged, may eventually cause
local subside or a cave-in in the road. Recently, the number of pipes which
are older than the service life time of 50 years, has been rapidly increasing.
Accordingly, incidents of a cave-in are found to be more frequent in urban
areas. In spite of the significance, full investigation of the road cave-in isoften skipped as the urgent road restoration is usually priotised. It is difficult
to clearly identify the real cause by the fact that eventual cave-in is likely tooccur long after the initial formation of a cavity in soil. The congested
underground lifeline structures also make it complicated.
Kuwano et al. (2006a) conducted a survey to obtain basic information
on how the damaged sewer pipes were related to the collapses of road,which occurred from 2001 to 2003. The survey was performed by sending
questionnaires and interviewing local government officers in seven cities
where the sewerage system had started more than 30 years ago and the
management and maintenance of old sewer pipes are likely to be theconcerned issues. It was found that even small gaps or cracks could lead toroad cave-in and the rainfall appears to be one of the most important factors,
as schematically shown in figure 1. Based on the survey results, Kuwano etal. (2006b) performed a series of model tests to investigate how a cavity
initially forms in soil and how it progresses up to the ground surface. In this709

October 2008, Beijing, China

paper, the typical process of cavity formation/expansion in sandy soil andthe quantitative evaluation for the loosening surrounding the cavity is shown.

��������

Rise of Ground water level
LooseningcavitySoil loss

Figure 1: A cavity and loosening formed above the defect of buried pipe
2. TEST APPARATUS AND PROCEDURE
A test apparatus used in this study is shown in Figure 2. Model ground of
300m wide, 50mm long and 200mm high was made in a small soil chamberhaving an opening of 5mm in a base plate, through which water was
supplied and drained. A cavity was formed above the opening at the base,after the water flow in and out of the opening repeatedly.
Water chamber

50mm

300mm
Head difference

BelloframcylinderModel ground

Water supply
Drainage

�

200mm

�

�

�

acrylic plate

Water chamber
5mm wide Opening

Figure 2: Model test apparatus for generating cavity/loosening in soil
Two sandy materials were used for the model ground. One is Toyoura
sand, clean uniform fine sand, and the other is natural sand which contains
fines of around 10%. Physical properties and particle size distribution are
shown in Table 1 and Figure 3, respectively.

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Table 1: Physical properties of model ground materials
Material

Maximum
dry density
�dmax

Model ground� �Dr=80%�
Dry density�d(g/cm3)

Water
contentw(%)

Hydraulicconductivityk(cm/s)Toyoura
sand

1.65

1.32

1.57

14.0

9.6×10-3

Natural
Sand

1.56

1.18

1.46

17.5

5.0×10-4

Percentage finer by weight (%)

�g/cm3�

Minimum
dry density
�dmin�g/cm3�

���
��
��
��

Natural sand

��
�
�����

Toyoura sand

����

���

�

��

Particle size (mm)Figure 3: Particle size distribution of tested materials
For the preparation of model ground, soil was placed into the chamberand compacted to relative density of 80% by eight layers. At each layer,
colored soil was placed in order to observe the deformation of ground. A
load equivalent to an overburden of 80cm was applied on the surface ofmodel ground. Water of approximately 100cc was supplied into the opening
with 1m head difference. After pausing 1 minute, the drainage valve was
opened to let water and soil flow out. This cycle of water supply/drainage
was repeated until the cavity or loosening reached the ground surface.
At each cycle of water supply/drainage, a photograph was taken toobserve a cavity and deformation of the model ground. The weight of soil
frown out of the opening was also measured.
3. CAVITY AND SURROUNDING LOOSENING
Typical form of cavity and surrounding loosening created in the model
ground is shown in Figure 4. A cavity of fan-like shape, having slope atboth sides and arching ceiling, was generated above the opening. Area ofloosening was evaluated by the ground deformation which was visible bycolored sand layers.
Experimental Study on the Evaluation of Loosening Surrounding a Cavity in Soil

711

October 2008, Beijing, China

Weight of soil loss�16.7%

Weight of soil loss�3.5%
Loosening (16.7%)

Loosening (22.2%)

Cavity (1.8%)

Cavity (10.3%)(a) Toyoura sand after 3 cycles(b) Natural sand after 13 cycles

Figure 4: Cavity and loosening formed in the model ground
Loosening was developed above and around the cavity in a different
manner in Toyoura sand and natural sand. Loosening in Toyoura sanddeveloped largely and rapidly above the cavity compared to that in naturalsand.
4. EVALUATION OF LOOSENING
In order to evaluate a cavity and loosening developed in the ground, someindices were proposed as shown in Table 2. Referring to Figure 4a, weightof soil flown out from the chamber up to cycle 3 was 3.5% of initial total
weight of soil. On the other hand, cavity area identified by the observation
was 1.8% of total soil area. The difference of those, that is 1.7% soil, can bethought to come from estimated loosening area, assuming that the
deformation developed in the plain strain condition. Thus, decrease in dry
density in estimated loosening area, which is defined to be degree oflooseness, can be evaluated to be 11%. Degree of looseness for natural sandwas estimated in the same manner, to be 54%.
It can be said that the cavity generated in Toyoura sand accompanies
large area of loosening (Ratio of loosening and cavity = 8.3) although thedegree of loosening is relatively small (11%), while loosening in natural
sand loses nearly half amount of soil (54%) but the loosening area is limited(Ratio of loosening and cavity = 1.2).
Table 2: Indices for evaluation of cavity and loosening in soil
Index
Ratio of soil loss
Area of cavity
Area of estimatedloosening and

712

Definition and description
Dry weight ratio of lost soil in
total soil
Ratio of cavity area in total soil
area
Ratio of estimated loosening andcavity area in total soil area

Value for figure 4(a)(b)
Toyoura sandNatural sandafter 3 cycles after 13 cycles
3.5%

16.7%

1.8%

10.3%

16.7%

22.2%

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Index

Definition and description

cavityValue for figure 4(a)(b)
Toyoura sandNatural sandafter 3 cycles after 13 cycles

Ratio of estimated loosening area
in total soil area excluding visible
cavity area
Degree of loosening area
extension in comparison to cavity
Ratio of looseningarea
and cavity(Area of estimated loosening/
Area of cavity)
Decrease in dry density inestimated loosening
Degree of((Ratio of soil loss�Area oflooseness
cavity)/Area of estimatedloosening)*Total soil area is 25cm wide, 5cm long and 20cm highArea of estimatedloosening

14.9%

11.9%

8.3

1.2

11%

54%

Area of cavity, loosening, and ratio of soil loss are plotted against
cycle of water supply/drainage in Figure 5. Cavity and loosening developed
rapidly with cycles in Toyoura sand and the loosening reached the groundsurface after the 5th cycle. Rate of loosening/cavity development is moderate
in natural sand, which sustained until the 13th cycle.
When the degree of loosening is assumed to be 15% for Toyoura sandand 50% for natural sand, ratio of soil loss can be estimated and are plottedin Figure 5 in broken line. It almost matches well to the measured weight ofsoil loss for all the cycles. The degree of loosening appeared to be consistentin the whole process of cavity and loosening development and to be
dependent on soil properties.
60�������
Area of cavity and loosening
50

���

40
30

������������
Measured amount of soil flown out

20

Area of cavity
�����

10
���������������������
Estimated amount of soil flown out (15%)
0

0

5

10
15
����������
Cycle of water supply/drainage

20

Toyoura sandExperimental Study on the Evaluation of Loosening Surrounding a Cavity in Soil

713

October 2008, Beijing, China
60
50

Area of cavity
andloosening�������

���

40

Measured amountof soil flown out������������

30

Estimated amount of������������
soil flown out (50%)
���������

20

Area ofcavity

�����

10
0

0

5

10
����������

15

20

Cycle of water supply/drainage

Natural sandFigure 5: Process of cavity/loosening formation
5. SUMMARY
It was found in the cave-in’s survey (Kuwano et al., 2006) that small
gap/crack of pipes may cause cave-in’s in the road and heavy rainfall was
one of the most important factors. Following these facts, a series of model
tests was performed, observing outflow of soil through 5mm opening in thebottom of a soil chamber.
It was found in the model tests that cavity and surrounding loosening
part in the poorly graded sand can rapidly expand. The loose area transmits
vertically rather than horizontally, until it eventually reaches the groundsurface. Formation of cavity and loosening can be quantitatively evaluatedby the proposed indices. The degree of loosening appeared to be consistentin the whole process of cavity and loosening development and to be
dependent on soil properties.
REFERENCES
Kuwano, R, Yamauchi, K., Horii, T. and Kohashi, H. 2006. Defects ofsewer pipes causing cave-in’s in the road, Proc. of 6th International
Symposium on New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in
Asia, Phuket, November 2006.
Kuwano, R., Horii, T. and Kohashi, H., 2006. Evaluation of loose groundsurrounding a cavity due to the outflow of soil, Proc. of 41th annual
conference, Japanese Geotechnical Society, Kagoshima, 1785-1786(in Japanese).

714

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

A STUDY ON ESTIMATION OF CROWN
PROJECTION AREA FOR WINDPRESSURE ANALYSIS USING
LIDAR DATATAKAHIRO ENDO, HITOSHI TAGUCHI,
P.J. BARUAH and HARUO SAWADA
International Center for Urban Safety Engineering (ICUS),
Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), the University of Tokyo, Japantendo@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
In order to estimate specific wind pressure of actual forest, anestimation method of tree crown projection area against arbitrary winddirection using LiDAR data is proposed. The method which we propose
consists of four procedures: 1) searching of geographical top position of atree crown, 2) segmentation of point cloud for each tree crown, 3) fitting of
3D approximate curve model to the segmented point cloud, and 4)
estimation of crown projection area where arbitrary wind directly hits.
Using the methodology tree crown projection area by using LiDAR data
could be estimated. The sunny crown length in the edge of forest was longer
than that of trees inside forest. Moreover, its projection area against south
east direction was largest. For trees standing in the edge of the forests,
forest management practices in Japan, recommends a unique crown shapehaving longer length in southeast side in order to prevent strong wind into
the forest. The results of this study corresponded to this recommendations.
This research indicates that LiDAR data might be able to estimate actual
tree crown projection area against arbitrary wind direction. Additionally,
the results indicate that LiDAR measuremens not only provides direct
measurements of geographical position, but also that of physicalparameters.
1. INTRODUCTION
A forest sometimes suffers destructive damage for sudden storm or typhoon(Shidei, 1987). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report points out that climatechange is going on. Therefore, in Japan, intensity of storm or typhoon may
become stronger and frequency of occurrence of them may increase in the
future (MLIT, 2007). On the other hand, mountain area and a steep range ofhills form 70 percent of the countries in Japan. Recently, in the upriver
district forest needing silviculture is increasing (MLIT, 2007). The reason
why frequency of occurrence of fallen trees by strong wind in upriver
district becomes high is clear (MLIT, 2007).
In order to reduce the damage of the forest, the important matter is tocontrol the growth of each tree based on its location. In other words, trees715October 2008, Beijing, China

which stand in the edge of forest have to be of unique shape to act aswindbreakers to prevent the strong wind invading the inside forest. On theother hand, trees which stand inside the forest sometimes have to be thinned
to get suitable height, DBH and crown shape. So, trees inside the forest or in
the edge of forest have to be managed for getting suitable crown shapes
respectively. Crown shape is a key parameter to find growth condition andwind-resistance. However, to measure actual tree crown shape has beendifficult since its shape often can not be measured at the ground in spite ofbeing an important growth indicator.
Previous researches applied equation (1) to independent trees such as
road side trees. In this research, crown projection area was calculated bycrown width and crown length (Shindei, 1987; Ishikawa, 2005). The reason
why this research used crown width and length as crown projection area
against wind direction was clear. It was difficult to measure actual crownprojection area against wind direction.
W=1/2CD�v2S
S=lw

(1)

where W is Wind pressure (kg.s/m2), CD is coefficient of resistance ofcrown, � is air density (kg/m3), v is wind velocity (m/s), S is crownprojection area (m2), l is crown length (m), w is crown width (m)If an actual tree crown in forest can be measured, risk of trees which
are likely to fall by wind pressure may be estimated by equation (1) andsuitable silvicultural method can be proposed.
In this context, airborne LiDAR can be of great use. LiDAR
technology, one of remote sensing technologies, can directly measure spatial
position of target. LiDAR can measure geographical position of target as
point cloud by using laser beam, DGPS and IMU. Thus, tree crown can bemeasured as point cloud by LiDAR.
This study aims to develop an estimation method of tree crownprojection area for wind pressure analysis using LiDAR data.
2. MATERIALS
2.1

Field data

Test area is a plantation forest managed by Mitsubishi Paper Mills Co.,
Ltd. The site is located in the northern part of Honshu Island, Japan (lat.
40°39’ N, long. 141°5’ E). The ground elevation is between 190-240m
above sea level. The dominant tree species are Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria
japonica) and Japanese red pine (Pinus densiflora). Mixing rate of cedar
and pine in the area is about 75.4% and 24.6% respectively according tofield sampling. Thus, the forest is a cedar plantation with randomly mixed
pine trees. Southeast edge of this area faces the flat ground. So, southeast
wind directly hits this area.
A field survey was conducted in the first week of August 2004.
Precise geographic position of every tree top was measured using a GPS(DL4, NovAtel inc.) and a beacon receiver (MBX-3S, CSI Wireless) for716

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

differential GPS positioning. Height of individual trees was acquired with aportable laser measurement device (LaserAe300, MDL). DBH and tree
species for all trees were recorded.
2.2

LiDAR data

LiDAR data for the test area was acquired under relatively clear skies.
LiDAR data was acquired on 11th and 12th August, 2004 using an airborne
laser scanner at a cruising speed of 110 kt and at a height of 1830 meters.
Scan rate, pulse rate and scanning width were 39.0 Hz, 46.0 kHz, and 647
meters respectively. Average footprint size was 0.47 meters. The scanner
was ALS50, a product of Leica Geosystems, that has horizontal accuracy
and vertical accuracy of + 30 cm and + 15 cm respectively. The averagedensity of laser reflection was 14.65 pulses per square meters.

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1

Preprocessing

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a mesh size of 1m was createdfrom whole point cloud derived from LiDAR measurement. Digital Canopy
Model (DCM) was created by the subtraction of DEM from point cloud.
Triangulated irregular network (TIN) was created from DCM for searching
geographical top position of tree crown.
3.2

Searching of geographical highest position of a tree crown

The height of arbitrary point and the averaged height of neighborhood
points were calculated by using TIN. In this study, neighborhood points
were vertices of 3rd triangle since area of 3rd triangle corresponded to sizeof small tree crowns. If the height of arbitrary point was higher than that ofneighborhood points, the arbitrary point was made a candidate point ofgeographical top position of tree crown. The candidate points were merged
by a clustering method which clustered points within 1.2m to a single point.
In our site, 1.2m was minimum distance between tree crowns. The merged
points became the estimated geographical top position of tree crown.
3.3

Segmentation of each crown area

In order to segment whole point cloud to each tree crown, aconstraint-rule was proposed. The rule was that a boundary between
adjacent tree crowns might exist between geographical top positions ofadjacent crowns and a point with the lowest height might be on boundary. A
point with the lowest height was searched on a segment between
geographical top positions by using the rule. As a result, there existed
several points with the lowest height around a geographical top position. A
polygon including a geographical top position was created by theneighborhood points with the lowest height. Point cloud in the polygon was

A Study on Estimation of Crown Projection Area for Wind Pressure Analysis Using Lidar Da

717

October 2008, Beijing, China

searched and specific point cloud in each polygon was segmented as point
cloud of specific tree crown.
3.4

Fitting of 3D approximate curve model

The point cloud was fitted by the 3D approximated curve model. The
methodology adopted was according to Endo et al. (2007). Each 3D crownshape was reconstructed by the specific geographic top position and point
cloud.
3.5

Estimation of crown projection area

The specific tree crown projection area was calculated by theestimated 3D crown shape and arbitrary wind direction. In order to estimate
the area hit directly by wind, the estimated crown projection area wasrecalculated based on the geographical location of specific tree andneighborhood trees. The recalculated crown projection area became thespecific crown projection area against arbitrary wind direction. In this study,crown projection area against east wind, southeast wind, and south wind
was simulated. Generally, it is said that a southeast wind by typhoon isstrong.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1

Accuracy of estimation of geographical top position of tree

Number of trees and its geographical top position were compared withthe field data (Figure 1). Number of trees with its correct position was 90
trees per 117 trees (76.9%). 27 trees were not detected. A total of 11 trees
corresponding to wrong geographical top position were detected. The resultsof investigation of DCM around un-detected trees, those trees were notindependent trees and were merged with neighborhood tree. So, we
considered that un-detected trees were hidden by a neighborhood tree withlarge crown. On the other hand, we considered that the segmentation
procedure in our methodology did not exactly detect actual top geographicalposition of the trees. In case of searching of a geographical top position of
the crown with large width and irregular shape, (for example, the crown
may consist of several tree crowns), the crown had several candidate points
which spread around a geographical top position. Several geographical top
positions might be detected in spite of one geographical top position since
the clustering method used the fixed threshold distance. We considered thatthe clustering method has to be modified to improve accuracy ofgeographical top position.

718

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Figure 1: Comparison between the estimated number of trees &geographical top position, and field data. Gray circle stands for theestimated geographical top position. Black square stands for the measured
geographical top position.
4.2

Evaluation of each crown area

Figure 2 shows the segmented tree crown with point cloud. Almost allcrown areas were segmented well. However, the segmented crown areas
were smaller than actual crown areas. As a result of detailed analysis, incase of one large crown with nearby two small crowns, a boundary between
two small crowns did not exist between their geographical top positions.
Therefore, boundary detecting method has to be improved.

Figure 2: The result of the segmented tree crowns with point cloud.

A Study on Estimation of Crown Projection Area for Wind Pressure Analysis Using Lidar Da

719

October 2008, Beijing, China

4.3

Accuracy of 3D approximate curve fitting

The calculated 3D crown shapes are shown in figure 3. The averaged
correlation coefficient between the point cloud and the approximated 3D
curves was 0.58. The standard deviation was 1.5m. But in case of fitting
independence trees, the averaged correlation coefficient became 0.78. The
sunny crown length in the edge of forest was longer than that of trees inside
forest. This result corresponded to actual crown shape. We found that thesetrees could prevent the strong wind invading the forest from southeast
direction.
From the results of these, we consider that the approximation was
successful. The reasons for low value for averaged correlation coefficientwere probably due to lower accuracies of detecting geographical top
positions and in segmenting crown area. We considered that if accuracies ofthese procedures are improved, the correlation coefficient becomes higher.

Figure 3: The calculated 3D tree crowns on DEM.
4.4

Crown projection area against three wind direction

In order to analyze relationship between the estimated crown shapeand three wind directions, we chose area from the edge of forest (figure 4).
Figure 4 shows 3D crown shapes and crown projection area against
southeast wind as a sample of results. The relationship between crownprojection area and wind direction is shown as figure 5.

720

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Figure 4: The 3D crown shapes at the edge of the forest, and the result of
the simulated crown projection areas against the southeast wind direction.

Figure 5: The result of crown projection areas against east, southeast andsouth wind direction. Black solid line, gray solid line and black dot line
represents crown projection area against east, southeast and south winddirection, respectively.
Specific vectors in figure 5 indicate origin point corresponding to ageographical top position, a direction corresponding to a wind direction anda length corresponding to a crown projection area. Each crown projection
area against different wind direction was different since its crown shape wasdifferent. We compared summation of each crown projection area against
three wind directions in this area. Crown projection areas against south,
southeast and east wind were 202.25 m2, 294.75m2 and 265.75m2,

A Study on Estimation of Crown Projection Area for Wind Pressure Analysis Using Lidar Da

721

October 2008, Beijing, China

respectively. Almost all trees in this area had long crown to southeast side.
In general, trees in the edge of forest have to serve as windbreakers(Hokkaido Forestry Research Institute, 2006). For effective wind breaking,the crown shape has to possess long crowns towards the open exterior spacefacing the wind. In our case, exterior space was at the southeast side. Thesecrown shapes and crown projection areas corresponded to the trees with thestandard shape recommended by the general treatment method for forestry.
We considered that the simulated crown projection area derived from our
method was reasonably correct.
5. CONCLUSION
This research proposed the new estimation method of crown projection area
against arbitrary wind direction using LiDAR data in order to evaluate windpressure of the forest. The proposed method consisted of four steps: 1)
searching of geographical highest position of tree crown, 2) segmentation ofpoint cloud of tree crown, 3) fitting of 3D approximate curve model to apoint cloud, and 4) estimation of a crown projection area which wind hits
directly. Since the proposed method is preliminary research, it still needssome improvement. However, the method could estimate actual crownprojection area which has been difficult to calculate until now. The resultsof this study indicate that LiDAR data may become useful tool to evaluate
risk of trees which are likely to fall by wind pressure. Additionally, theresults indicate that LiDAR measurement not only provide measurements ofgeographical position, but also that of physical parameters.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my gratitude to the MITSUBISHI PAPER MILLSLIMITED which provided us test sites. Furthermore, I would like to thankthe Kokusai Kogyo Co., Ltd. which supported data collection.
REFERENCES
Endo T., Taguchi, H., and Yasuoka, Y., 2007, Development of classification
method of road side trees by aerial laser scanner data. Proceeding of
JSPRS, Nagaoka, Japan, 151-152.
Ishikawa, H., 2005. Experimental Study on Flow Characteristics of Trees.
Nagare 24, 483-490.
Shidei, T., 1987. Forest protection science. Asakura Publishing Co., Ltd.
Tokyo.
The
Hokkaido
Forestry
Research
Institute;
http://www.hfri.pref.hokkaido.jp/03kikaku/fuugai/t18higai.pdf
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism;
http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha07/05/051129_2_.html

722

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

GREEN BUILDINGS:
CURRENT STATUS AND PROSPECTS
PRANAB J. BARUAH1, AKIMASA SUMI1 and TAKAHIRO ENDO2
1
Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S)The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113 8654 Japan
2
Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo
pjbaruah@ir3s.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACTWith global warming becoming mainstream policy issue for governments
and businesses alike due to increasing public awareness about environment,
buildings are coming under focus for their large carbon emission and use ofhumongous amount of energy, water and material both during construction andutilization phase. “Greening” of real-estate, which started a decade earlier inseveral developed countries, is gaining momentum and moving into newfrontiers as developed countries are acting towards low-carbon economy andemerging economies are urbanizing rapidly amid sustainability concerns. In thispaper, we review current trends in embracing green buildings and how different
factors, such as, green-building rating-systems worldwide are shaping the
movement in various countries. Based on findings from other studies, we discuss
how higher energy costs, greater environmental concern and innovations intechnologies (such as in IT) will give positive dynamics to green building market
for achieving lesser environmental impact.
1. INTRODUCTION
According to 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (IPCC, 2007), it is ‘very
likely’(>90% likelihood) that global warming of about 0.60C over the past
century is due to anthropogenic increase of green house gases (GHG), mainly
CO2. Since 1970 to 2004, commercial and residential buildings constitute about
8% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent (IPCC, 2007).
Considering the energy, water and other resources consumed during construction
and utilization of the buildings in their entire lifespan, built environment is
responsible for about 40% of CO2 emission, 30% of solid waste generation andabout 20% of water effluents. In terms of resources used, about 40% of energy,
20% of water and 10% of land-area are used by the building and construction
sector (UNEP-SBCI, 2006). This makes it a key sector and a “key factor forsustainable development” with its immense benefits to the society and at thesame time associated negative impacts without appropriate attention (UNEPSBCI, 2006). Additionally, as numerous studies have found, indoor air quality
and energy efficiency in buildings are key factors of health of the inhabitants.
Now, with increasing public awareness about environment as a result of
globalization and internet, governments and businesses alike are putting
increasing focus on the real-estate sector to reduce CO2 emission for mitigationof climate change. The sector is becoming important from another dimension in723

October
October
2008,2008,
Beijing,
Beijing,
China
China

context
context
of successfulof successful
mitigation
mitigationof climateof climatechangechangeand sustainability
and sustainability- the- future
the futureof theof theworld
world
is urban,is urban,withwith
aboutabout
60%60%of humanof human
population
population(~5 (~5billion)billion)projected
projected
to liveto livein cities
in cities
by 2030
by 2030
fromfrom
50%50%(~3.2(~3.2
billion)billion)in 2005
in 2005(Deutche(Deutche
BankBank
Research,Research,2008),
2008),and mostly
and mostly
in developingin developing
countries.
countries.
Also,Also,“greening”“greening”
of ofbuildingbuilding
sectorsectorfor greenfor greenbuildings
buildings
is gaining
is gaining
momentum
momentumparticularly
particularly
fromfrom
the thefact fact
that,that,it presents
it presents
withwithseveralseveral“long“longhanging
hanging
fruit”fruit”
solutionssolutions
to reduce
to reduce
GHGGHGemissionsemissionsand andincreaseincreaseenergyenergyefficiency
efficiency
withwith
minimalminimalor sometimes
or sometimes
negative
negativecosts.costs.
ThisThisreview
review
paperpaper
discusses
discusses
the essentials
the essentials
of aofgreen
a greenbuilding,building,
greengreen
buildingbuilding
ratingratingsystems
systemsaroundaroundthe world,
the world,
key keyfactors
factors
effectingeffectingits development
its development
alongalong
withwithcurrent
current
and andfuturefuturetrendstrendsof greenof greenbuildingbuilding
market.
market.
Based
Based
on on
currently
currently
available
available
studies,studies,a qualitative
a qualitative
outlook
outlookof theof future
the futureof greenof greenbuildings
buildings
in emerging
in emerging
economies
economies
is alsois alsopresented.
presented.
2. WHAT2. WHATIS GREEN
IS GREENBUILDING
BUILDING
Although
Althoughthe terms
the terms“sustainable“sustainablebuilding”
building”
and and“green“greenbuilding”
building”
are often
are often
usedusedinterchangeablyinterchangeablyin activities
in activities
suchsuch
as advertisements
as advertisements
and andspeeches,
speeches,
they they
are arefundamentally
fundamentallydifferent.
different.
ThisThis
shows
shows
the poor
the poor
understanding
understandingof theof concept
the concept
of ofsustainability
sustainability
among
among
different
different
stakeholders
stakeholders
and andhighlights
highlights
the fact
the fact
how howsomesome
entities
entities
in society
in society
are usingare usingthesethesetermsterms
for “green
for “green
washing”
washing”
to profit
to profit
fromfrom
increased
increasedpublicpublicinterest
interest
in environmental
in environmental
issues.
issues.
Based
Basedon theon UN
the UN
Bruntland
BruntlandCommission
Commission
Report,Report,which
which
popularized
popularized
and anddefineddefinedthe concept
the conceptof sustainableof sustainable
development
development
as “..theas “..thedevelopment
development
which
which
meets
meets
the need
the needof theof present
the present
without
without
compromising
compromising
the ability
the abilityof theof future
the future
generations
generations
to meetto meettheirtheirown ownneeds”,
needs”,
a sustainablea sustainablebuildingbuilding
can becandefined
be defined
as asthe“…onethe“…onethat thatcan becanproduced
be produced
and andcontinue
continue
to betoproduced
be produced
overoverthe long
the long
termterm
without
without
adversely
adversely
affectingaffectingthe natural
the naturalenvironment
environment
necessarynecessaryto support
to support
human
human
activities
activities
in thein future”.
the future”.
On theOn otherthe otherhand,hand,greengreen
buildingbuilding
can becanstated
be statedas theas the“..one“..onethat thatuses uses
energyenergyand andmaterialmaterial
moremore
effectively
effectively
bothbothin productionin production
and andoperation
operation
whilewhile
pollutingpollutingand anddamaging
damaging
naturalnaturalsystems
systems
as little
as little
as possible”.
as possible”.
(Straube,(Straube,2006).
2006).
Therefore,
Therefore,
whilewhilea sustainablea sustainablebuildingbuilding
has nohas netno impact
net impact
in inenvironment
environmentand co-exists
and co-exists
withwith
world’s
world’s
ecologicalecologicalbalancebalanceindefinitely,indefinitely,a greena greenbuildingbuilding“focuses“focuses
on incremental
on incremental
stepssteps
to solve
to solve
known
known
and andmeasurable
measurable
problems
problems
with withour current
our current
practice”(Building
practice”(Building
Science,
Science,2008).
2008).
Based
Based
on present
on present
environmental
environmental& sustainability& sustainability
concerns,
concerns,
available
availabletechnology
technology
and andknowledgeknowledgeof linkagesof linkages
betweenbetweendifferent
different
systems
systems
on earthon earth(i.e. (i.e.
social,social,economical,
economical,
environmental),
environmental),greengreen
buildingbuilding
is ais stepa steptowards
towardsa asustainable
sustainable
societysocietyby being
by being
significantly
significantly
betterbetterthan thansimilar,similar,or average,
or average,
buildingbuildingof sameof samesize size
and andtype typein thein samethe samelocation
locationby reducing
by reducing
the overall
the overall
impactimpactof theofbuilt
the built
environment
environment
on humanon humanhealthhealthand theand natural
the naturalenvironment
environment
in in
following
followingareas:
areas:
� Landuse� Landuse
� Energy
� Energy
Efficiency
Efficiency
� Material
� Material
and Resources
and Resources
Efficiency
Efficiency
� Global� Global
Ecological
Ecological
ImpactImpact� Design
� Design
and Delivery
and Delivery
Process
Process� Durability� Durability
� Social
� Social
Transformation
Transformation
� Indoor� Indoor
environmental
environmental
Quality
Quality� �� Water
� Water
Resources
Resources
Management
Management� Affordability
� Affordability� �� Community
� Community
Development
Development
� Transport� Transport

724 724

New New
Technologies
for Urban
SafetySafetyof Mega
CitiesCities
in Asia
Technologies
for Urban
of Megain AsiaICUSICUS
ReportReport31 31

3. GREEN
3. GREENBUILDING
BUILDING
MOVEMENT
MOVEMENT
BriefBrief
History
History
SeveralSeveralancient
ancientsocieties
societies
practiced
practiced
principles
principles
of geomacy
of geomacy
which
which
has hassimilarsimilarattributes
attributes
to present
to present
green
green
buildings.
buildings.
The TheChineseChineseusedusedFengshui,Fengshui,
which
which
comprises
comprisesof broadof broad
spectrum
spectrumof theoriesof theories
regardingregardingselection
selectionof a oflocation,a location,layoutlayoutof buildingsof buildings
etc. etc.
IndianIndiangeomacygeomacyprinciples
principles
in Vastuin Vastu
ShastraShastralaid laidout criteria
out criteria
for forlayoutlayoutand andplanning
planningof buildingsof buildings
to influence
to influence
the peacethe peaceand andprosperity
prosperityof itsof its
inhabitants.
inhabitants.
BothBothof theseof theseguidelines
guidelines
use useprinciples
principles
of astronomy,of astronomy,
and andincorporate
incorporate
energyenergyand andenvironment
environment
in theirin theirpractices.
practices.
Ancient
Ancient
GreeksGreeksusedusedpassivepassivesolarsolar
heatingheatingtechniques
techniques
to build
to build
entireentirecitiescities
to receive
to receive
solarsolar
heat heat
in in
winterwinter(US-EPA,(US-EPA,
2008).
2008).
Although
Although
green
green
buildingbuildingfeaturesfeaturesdescribed
described
above
above
has hasbeenbeen
incorporated
incorporated
collectively
collectively
or inor isolationin isolation
throughthroughcenturies
centuries
in various
in various
partspartsof theof theworld,
world,
modernmoderngreen
green
buildingbuilding
movement
movementstartedstartedin westernin westerndeveloped
developed
economies
economiesaroundaround1970s
1970s
out ofoutinterestsof interests
in improving
in improving
energyenergyefficiency
efficiency
due todueoiltocrisis
oil crisis
and andenvironmental
environmental
movements.
movements.
In 1990s,
In 1990s,
the movement
the movement
gainedgainedmomentum
momentumwithwiththe theUN UN
EarthEarth
Summit,Summit,Rio Riode Jeneirode Jeneiro
in 1992
in 1992
passing
passing
AgendaAgenda21 for
21 sustainable
for sustainable
development,
development,
releasereleaseof UK’sof UK’s
and world’s
and world’s
first firstbuildingbuilding
environment
environment
assessment
assessment
systemsystemBREEAMBREEAM
in 1990,in 1990,
US Department
US Departmentof Energy’sof Energy’s
EnergyEnergyStar Star
Program
Programin in19921992
and andformationformationof US
of Green
US Green
Building
Building
Council
Council(USGBC)(USGBC)in 1993.
in 1993.
RecentRecentyearsyears
havehaveseenseensuddensuddenupsurgeupsurgein interest
in interest
among
among
buyers,buyers,developers,
developers,buildersbuilders
and andgovernments
governments
acrossacrossthe theworld
world(including(including
emerging
emerging
economies)
economies)
to build
to build
green
green
buildings
buildings
voluntarily
voluntarilyor throughor throughmandated
mandatedprograms.
programs.
Present
Present
statusstatus
WithWith
globalglobalwarming
warming
becoming
becoming
a centrala centralissueissue
for forbusinesses
businesses
and andgovernments
governments
in recentin recentyears,
years,
green
green
buildingbuilding
movement
movement
is gaining
is gaining
momentum
momentumin indeveloped
developed
economies,
economies,
notably
notablyin USA,in USA,
EU, EU,
and Japan.
and Japan.
AccordingAccordingto Martinto Martin
et al.et (2007),al. (2007),
green
green
buildingbuilding
movement
movementin USAin USAis isnearing
nearinga tippinga tipping
pointpoint
withwithtremendous
tremendous
growth
growthseenseen
in non-residential
in non-residential
market.
market.
In 2004,
In 2004,
non-residential
non-residential
marketmarketaccounted
accounted
for aboutfor about
2% of
2%the
of US
the market
US market(about(about$ 3.3$ billion),
3.3 billion),
which
which
is growing
is growing
and andforecasted
forecasted
to beto about
be about$10-20$10-20billionbillion
in in
2010.
2010.
McGraw-Hill
McGraw-Hill
Construction
Construction
suggestssuggests
residential
residential
green
green
buildingbuilding
marketmarketto togrowgrow
to $19to $19to $38
to $38billionbillionby 2010by 2010
fromfrom$7.2$7.2
billionbillionin 2005.
in 2005.
Without
Without
any any
marketmarketmeasuremeasureon greenon greenbuildingbuilding
development,
development,
growth
growthin certifiedin certified
buildings
buildings
by bybuildingbuilding
certification
certification
systems
systems
are quoted
are quoted
oftenoften
in reports.
in reports.
The Thereportreportsaid said
that,that,valuevalueof newlyof newly
constructed
constructed
registeredregisteredbuildings
buildings
by USGBC’s
by USGBC’s
LEED
LEED
certification
certification
systemsystemhas grown
has grown
fromfrom$792$792
millionmillionto $10
to $10billionbillionin 2006.
in 2006.
Another
Anothersummarysummary
fromfrom
USGBC
USGBC
(Green(GreenBuildings,
Buildings,2008),
2008),
statesstatesthe theannualannualmarketmarketfor greenfor greenbuildingbuilding
in products
in products
and andservices
servicesto beto$12
be $12billion.
billion.
NumberNumberof certifiedof certified
homes
homes
by US-EPA
by US-EPA
EnergyEnergyStar Star
are increasing
are increasingat rapid
at rapid
rate rate
and andvaluevalueof suchof suchhomes
homes
standsstands
at $26
at $26billionbillionin 2005.
in 2005.
In early
In early
2008,
2008,
National
National
Association
Associationof Homeof Home
Builders
Builders(NAHB)(NAHB)
has haslaunchedlaunched
the voluntary
the voluntary
NAHB
NAHB
National
National
Green
Green
Building
Building
Program,
Program,
which
which
is seenis seento compete
to compete
aggressively
aggressively
withwith
LEED
LEED
ratingratingsystem.
system.
ThoughThoughUSAUSA
doesdoes
not have
not havenational
national
green
green
buildingbuilding
policies
policies
withwithmandates,mandates,
severalseveralstatesstatesare adopting
are adopting
mandatesmandatesfor greener
for greener
buildings.
buildings.
NotableNotableamong
among
themthem
are state
are stateof California
of California
and and
Washington
Washington
D.C.D.C.
FromFrom
beginning
beginningof 2009,of 2009,
California
California
non-residential
non-residentialbuildings
buildings
would
would
requirerequireenergy-use
energy-use
reporting,reporting,and andfromfrom
beginning
beginningof 2010of 2010commercial
commercial
buildings
buildings
would
would
havehaveto report
to reporton theiron theirenergyenergy-

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Buildings:
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725 725

October
October
2008,2008,
Beijing,
Beijing,
ChinaChina

use anduse Energy-Star
and Energy-Starcertification
certification
statusstatus
to potential
to potential
buyersbuyersand leasers
and leasers(Building(BuildingGreen,
Green,
Sep.16,
Sep.16,2008).
2008).
Washington
Washington
D.C.D.C.
will will
requirerequirethe city
the citybuildings
buildings
to tobenchmarked
benchmarked
annually
annually
starting
starting
in 2009
in 2009
with withannualannualbenchmarking
benchmarking
for private
for privatebuildings
buildings
to betodone
be donebetweenbetween20102010
and 2013
and 2013(Building(BuildingGreen,
Green,
Sep.1,
Sep.1,
2008).
2008).
In EU,In EU,
the Energy
the Energy
Performance
Performanceof Buildingsof Buildings
Directive
Directive(EPBD),(EPBD),
basedbasedon on19931993‘SAVE’‘SAVE’
Directive
Directiveon energy
on energy
efficiency,
efficiency,
camecame
into into
effecteffectin January
in January
2006.2006.
EPBD
EPBD
providesprovidesa commona common
methodology
methodology
for calculating
for calculatingenergyenergyperformance
performanceand andsettingsettingenergyenergyperformance
performancestandards
standardsof buildingsof buildings(in both(in both
new new
and existing)and existing)in inindividual
individual
membermemberstates.
states.
It is Itestimatedis estimatedthat, that,with withproperproperimplementation
implementation
of of
EPBD,
EPBD,
11%11%
reduction
reductionin oilinconsumption
oil consumption
can becanachieved
be achievedin 2020
in 2020(EurActive,(EurActive,
Sep Sep
15, 2008).
15, 2008).
However,
However,
progress
progressis reported
is reported
to betoslow
be slowwith with
only only
Denmark,
Denmark,
Germany
Germany
and Austria
and Austria
fullyfullycomplyingcomplying
with with
the EPBD
the EPBD
and otherand otherstatesstates
lagging
laggingbehindbehind(EurActive,(EurActive,
Apr Apr26, 2008).
26, 2008).
In EU-wide
In EU-wide
efforteffort
for greener
for greener
buildings,
buildings,
Germany
Germany
proposed
proposed
mandatory
mandatory
energyenergyefficiency
efficiency
labelinglabeling
for buildings
for buildings
and andapartments
apartments
in April,in April,20072007(Reuter,(Reuter,
Apr Apr20, 2007).
20, 2007).
At present,
At present,
UK does
UK does
not have
not havea singlea singleplan planof actionof action
on greenon greenbuilding.
building.
However,
However,varietyvarietyof policies,of policies,
regulations,
regulations,performance
performancestandards,
standards,
guidance
guidance
documents
documents
and and
voluntary
voluntary
initiatives
initiatives
by numerous
by numerousorganizationsorganizations
are available.
are available.
UK UK
Building
Building
ResearchResearch
Estiablishment
Estiablishment(BRE)’s(BRE)’s
voluntary
voluntaryratingrating
systemsystemBREEAMBREEAMand USGBC’sand USGBC’s
LEED
LEED
are increasingly
are increasingly
beingbeing
embracedembracedby businesses.
by businesses.
In Japan,
In Japan,energyenergyefficiency
efficiency
has been
has beena corea corenational
national
policypolicydue todueitstolack
its lackof naturalof natural
resources
resources
and asanda asstrategy
a strategy
for energy
for energy
security
security
sincesince
the oiltheshockoil shockof of1970s.
1970s.
Surprisingly,
Surprisingly,
therethere
is nois government
no government
policypolicyto promote
to promote
efficiency
efficiency
exclusively
exclusively
in thein building
the building
sectorsectorwhere
where
aboutabout
25%25%of totalof totalenergyenergyis usedis usedfor forspacespaceheatingheating
and andcoolingcoolingof buildings.
of buildings.
EnergyEnergyconsumption
consumption
in commercial
in commercial
buildings
buildings
in Japanin Japanis about
is about
8% of
8%world
of world
energyenergyconsumption
consumption
in suchin suchplacesplaces(European(EuropeanBusiness
Business
Council
CouncilJapan,
Japan,Jul Jul2008).
2008).
However,
However,underunder
EnergyEnergyConservation
Conservation
Law,Law,
19791979(amended(amended1999),
1999),
voluntary
voluntaryenergyenergysavingsavinglabelinglabeling
programs
programs
for forhomehomeappliances
appliances
existexist
and andmandatory
mandatory
reportingreportingof energyof energy
22conservationconservation
measuresmeasuresin buildings
in buildings
over over
20002000
m floorm floorspacespace
werewere
introduced
introduced
in in20032003
and andtightenedtightenedin Aprilin April
2006.2006.
Statistics
Statistics
shows
shows
that thatcompliancecompliance
rate rateis isincreasing,increasing,fromfrom
34 %34in%1999
in 1999
to 74%
to 74%
in commercial
in commercial
buildings,
buildings,
and isandlikelyis likely
to toincreaseincreasein futurein future
(Hong
(Hong
et al.,
et 2007).
al., 2007).
In 2004,
In 2004,
JapanJapan
Sustainable
Sustainable
Building
Building
Consortium
Consortium(JSBC)(JSBC)
introduced
introduced
the voluntary
the voluntary
CASBEECASBEE
greengreen
buildingbuilding
ratingrating
systemsystemto assessto assessthe environmental
the environmental
efficiency
efficiencyof buildings,
of buildings,
popularity
popularityof whichof which
is increasing
is increasing
among
among
government
government
and industry
and industry
as wellas wellas inasotherin other
AsianAsian
countries.
countries.
Elsewhere
Elsewhere
in developingin developing
economies,
economies,
China
China
and India,
and India,
two emerging
two emerging
giantsgiantsare slowly
are slowly
but seriously
but seriously
adopting
adopting
greengreen
buildings
buildings
as theiras their
population
population
rapidlyrapidlyurbanizeurbanizeand real-estate
and real-estate
sectorsectoris growing
is growing
at a blazing
at a blazing
speed.
speed.
Currently,
Currently,
China’s
China’sbuildings
buildings
consumeconsumeaboutabout
18%18%of totalof totalenergyenergyand andprojected
projected
to reachto reach
40%40%
by by
20302030
whenwhen
the urban
the urban
population
population
reachesreaches
1 billion
1 billion(Howard(Howardet al.,et2007).
al., 2007).
China’s
China’s
Ministry
Ministryof Constructionof Construction
(MOC)
(MOC)
has unveiled
has unveiled“Evaluation“Evaluation
Standard
Standard
for Green
for Green
Building”,
Building”,
which
which
took tookeffecteffecton Juneon June1, 2006
1, 2006
and isandsimilaris similar
to USGBC’s
to USGBC’s
LEED
LEED
ratingrating
system.
system.
RatingRatingsystems
systems
suchsuchas LEEDas LEEDand and
CASBEECASBEEare arebeingbeing
increasingly
increasingly
adoptedadoptedfor upcoming
for upcoming
projects.
projects.
For aFor
greenera greener
SummerSummerOlympics
Olympics
2008,2008,
China
China
usedused
Tsinghua
Tsinghua
University’s
University’s
Green
Green
Olympic
Olympic
Building
Building
Assessment
Assessment
SystemSystem(GOBAS),(GOBAS),
which
which
is basedis basedon CASBEE.
on CASBEE.
In India,
In India,buildingbuilding
energyenergyconsumes
consumes
aboutabout
33%33%of totalof totalenergyenergyin 2005.
in 2005.
Integrate
Integrate
EnergyEnergyPolicyPolicyunveiled
unveiled
in 2006
in 2006
identifies
identifies
10 key10 areas
key areasfor efficiency
for efficiency
improvement,
improvement,
half halfof whichof which
relaterelate
to building
to building
sector.
sector.
For Investments
For Investments
above
above

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in Asia
Technologies
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of Megain AsiaICUSICUS
ReportReport
31 31

$11.6
$11.6
million,million,developers
developers
needneedclearances
clearances
fromfrom
government
government
beforebeforeconstruction
constructionin terms
in terms
of environmentalof environmental
impactimpactassessment.
assessment.
There
There
is nois national
no national
mandatory
mandatory
green
green
buildingbuilding
relatedrelatedprogram.
program.
Recently,
Recently,
therethere
is growing
is growinginterest
interest
in USGBCin USGBCLEED
LEEDratingratingsystemsystempromotedpromotedby Indian
by Indian
Green
Green
Building
Building
Council
Council(IGBC).
(IGBC).
BureauBureauof Energyof Energy
Efficiency
Efficiency
(BEE)
(BEE)
is working
is working
on toonmandate
to mandate
energyenergyauditaudit
of ofbuildings
buildings
and and
Ministry
Ministryof Newof Newand andRenewable
Renewable
EnergyEnergySources
Sources(MNRE)(MNRE)is isplanning
planning
to develop
to develop
a voluntarya voluntary
green
green
buildingbuilding
ratingratingsystemsystemwithwith
an incentive
an incentive
mechanismmechanism
(Hong
(Hong
et al.,et 2007).
al., 2007).
Factors
Factors
driving
drivinggreen
green
buildingbuilding
movement
movement
NelsonNelson(2007)(2007)
and andMartinMartinet alet (2007)
al (2007)
cite cite
severalseveralfactors
factors
driving
driving
investments
investments
in andin anddemanddemandof greenof greenbuildings
buildings
in US.
in US.
However,
However,mostmostof theseof thesefactors
factors
are also
are also
workingworkingin otherin otherpartspartsof theof world
the worldin varying
in varying
mix mix
and anddegrees.
degrees.
AccordingAccordingto Martinto Martin
et al.et(2007),al. (2007),severalseveralstudiesstudieshavehave
found
found
that,that,a particulara particularclassclassof tenantsof tenants
are interested
are interested
and creating
and creating
demanddemandof greenof greenbuildings
buildings
at present.
at present.
TheyThey
are referred
are referred
as LOHAS
as LOHAS
customers,
customers,
Creatives
Creativesor Trueor True
BlueBlue
GreensGreenswhowhoare arewell-educatedwell-educated& wealthier& wealthier
thanthanaverage,average,and andwell-aware
well-awareof keyof keyenvironmental
environmental
issuesissuessuchsuch
as climate
as climatechange.
change.
Next,Next,
governments
governments
are playing
are playing
increasingly
increasingly
activeactiverole roledue dueto realization
to realizationof theof benefits
the benefitsof pursuingof pursuing
green
green
buildingbuilding
programs
programs
in context
in context
of risingof risingenergyenergypricespricesand andtackling
tackling
mitigation
mitigationof climateof climatechangechangethroughthroughminimalminimalcosts.
costs.
TheyThey
are aremovingmovingforwardforwardby formalizing
by formalizing
new new
regulations,
regulations,raisingraisingawareness
awareness
and andthroughthroughtenancytenancyby settingby setting
standards
standards
for building
for building
it sets
it sets
for its
forownits own
occupancy.
occupancy.
In countries
In countries
like like
China,
China,
where
where
government
government
has ahasstrong
a strong
influencing
influencing
power
power
on on
businesses
businesses
by virtue
by virtueof theof political
the politicalsystemsystemwill will
possibly
possiblybe thebe biggest
the biggest
driverdriverin insettingsetting
the movement
the movementin theinright
the right
and fasterand fasterpath.path.
Third,
Third,
due due
to increasing
to increasing
environmental
environmental
awareness
awareness
among
among
generalgeneralpublic,public,companies
companies
are responding
are respondingby takingby takingenvironmental
environmental
actionactionand andbeingbeing“green”.
“green”.
MovingMovingto green
to greenfacilities
facilities
is providing
is providing
themthem
withwithgreatergreatercredibility
credibilityon theiron theirgreening
greening
commitmentcommitment
to stay
to stayahead
ahead
of theof pack.
the pack.
At theAt samethe sametime,time,buildersbuilders
and anddevelopers
developers
are arerealizing
realizing
this thisnecessity
necessity
to green-up
to green-up
to proveto provetheirtheirsociallysocially
responsible
responsible
charactercharacterand andat theat thesamesametimetime
retainretaincompetitivecompetitive
advantageadvantageby bymovingmovingbeforebeforebeingbeing
pushedpushedby governments
by governments
throughthrough
new new
regulations.
regulations.
Investors
Investors
are arerealizing
realizingthat that“future“futureof buildingof building
is green”
is green”
and andfinding
findinga new
a newsociallysocially
responsible
responsible
investinginvesting
(SRI)
(SRI)
opportunity
opportunity
in ainlucrative
a lucrative
sector.
sector.
WithWith
recentrecentworldwide
worldwide
downturn
downturnin conventionalin conventional
real-estatereal-estatemarket,market,green
green
buildings
buildings
are also
are also
getting
getting
new new
investors
investors
due toduetheirto theirpositive
positive
returns
returns
and increasing
and increasing
market.
market.
LastLast
but but
not not
the least,
the least,
professional
professional
and andinternational
internationalorganizationsorganizations
like like
USBGC
USBGC
and UNEP-SBCIand UNEP-SBCI
are playing
are playing
an active
an activerole roleby creatingby creatingawareness
awarenessof theof theopportunities,
opportunities,
serving
serving
necessarynecessary
professional
professional
information,
information,
creating
creating
quantitative
quantitative
assessment
assessment
systems
systems
and andpresenting
presenting
the themovement
movement
withwitha businessa businesscase.case.
Especially,
Especially,
the green
the greenbuildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
systems
systemsare paving
are paving
wayswaysfor bothfor bothpublicpublicand and
corporate
corporate
policymaking.
policymaking.
Also,Also,
theythey
are motivating
are motivating
innovation
innovation
acrossacrossbuildersbuilders
as wellas wellas suppliers
as suppliersof materialsof materials
and andby providing
by providing
summaries
summaries
of ofbuildingbuilding
performance
performance
which
which
are helping
are helping
to create
to createdemanddemandthroughthroughawareness
awareness(Cole(Coleet al.,et 2005)
al., 2005)

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and Prospects

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2008,2008,
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China
China

4. GREEN
4. GREENBUILDING
BUILDING
ASSESSMENTASSESSMENTSYSTEMSSYSTEMS
Green
Green
buildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
systems
systems
provideprovideeffective
effective
framework
framework
for assessment
for assessmentof buildingof building
environmental
environmental
performance
performancequantitatively
quantitatively
to betopresented
be presented
in terms
in terms
of ofindicators
indicators
which
which
are easyare easy
to understand.
to understand.
It can
It integrate
can integrate
the complex
the complex
concept
conceptof ofsustainable
sustainable
development
development
effectively
effectively
into into
buildingbuilding
and andconstruction
construction
process.
process.
Conventionally,
Conventionally,buildings
buildings
are designed
are designed
to meetto meetbuildingbuilding
codecoderequirements.
requirements.
Green
Green
buildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
systems
systems
go beyondgo beyondthe codethe code
to incorporate
to incorporate
variousvariouselements
elements
concerning
concerning
sustainability
sustainability
to improveto improveoveralloverallbuildingbuilding
performance
performanceand andminimizeminimize
life-cycle
life-cycle
environmental
environmental
impactimpactand cost
and cost(Gowri,(Gowri,2004).
2004).
Assessment
Assessment
toolstools
developed
developed
till datetill date
may may
be classified
be classified
into into
two twocategories.
categories.
FirstFirst
category
categoryis basedis basedon aonpurelya purely
criteria
criteria
basedbased
systemsystemassigningassigning
pointpointvaluesvaluesto a toselecteda selected
numbernumberof parametersof parameters
on aonscale.
a scale.
BREEAMBREEAM
(UK),
(UK),
LEED
LEED
(USA)
(USA)
and Green
and Green
StarsStars(Australia)(Australia)
are some
are some
examplesexamplesof thisof category.
this category.
SecondSecond
group
group
of of
toolstools
are based
are basedon lifeon cyclelife cycle
assessment
assessment
(LCA)
(LCA)
methodology
methodology
employing
employing“cradle“cradleto grave”
to grave”
assessment
assessment
approachapproachto theto theinputsinputsin orderin orderto evaluate
to evaluate(mainly)(mainly)environmental
environmental
impacts
impacts
fromfrom
key key
outputs.
outputs.
ExampleExampleof suchof suchtoolstools
are BEES
are BEES(USA),(USA),
BeatBeat(Denmark),(Denmark),
ECOECOQUANTUM
QUANTUM(Netherlands),(Netherlands),
ECO-PROECO-PRO(Germany),(Germany),
EQUER(France)
EQUER(France)
etc. etc.
(Larsson(Larssonet al.,
et 2001;
al., 2001;
Hikmat,Hikmat,2008).
2008).
TableTable
1 1
lists lists
the themajor
major
greengreen
buildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
systems
systems
fromfrom
different
different
countries/organizations.
countries/organizations.
MostMost
assessment
assessment
system’ssystem’s
primary
primary
focusfocus
is onisenergy
on energy
efficiency,
efficiency,
resource
resource
efficiency,
efficiency,
indoorindoorair environment,
air environment,waterwater
resources
resources
management
management
and sustainable
and sustainablesite site
selection.
selection.
Among
Among
the theratingratingsystems
systemsin Tablein Table
1, those
1, those
getting
gettingwider
wider
recognition
recognition
worldwide
worldwide
are BREEAM,
are BREEAM,
LEED,
LEED,
CASBEE,CASBEE,GreenStar,
GreenStar,and GBTool.
and GBTool.
We discuss
We discussin brief
in brief
the first
the first
four four
ratingratingsystems
systems
below.
below.
CountryCountry

Table
Table
1: Major
1: Majorgreengreen
buildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
systems.
systems.

Assessment
Assessment
tool tool�BRE
Environmental
Assessment
Method(BREEAM)
�BRE
Environmental
Assessment
Method(BREEAM)UK UK
�Environmental
Estimator(ENVEST)
�Environmental
Estimator(ENVEST)�USGBCLeadershipin Energy
and Environmental
Design(LEED)�USGBCLeadershipin Energy
and Environmental
Design(LEED)�NAHB
National
GreenGreen
Building
Standard
�NAHB
National
Building
Standard
USA USA�US-EPA
EnergyStar for�US-EPA
EnergyStarNew
for Homes
New Homes
�DOE
Building
America�DOE
Building
America�Building
Environment
and Economical
Sustainability(BEES)
�Building
Environment
and Economical
Sustainability(BEES)
�GreenBuilding
Tool Tool(GB Tool)�GreenBuilding(GB Tool)�GreenGlobesCEE CEE& EEC
�GreenGlobes& EEC
CanadaCanada�LEED-Canada
�LEED-Canada
�BREEAM-Canada
�BREEAM-Canada
�GreenStar AGBC
�GreenStar AGBC
Australia
Australia
�National
Building
Environment
RatingScheme(NABERS)
�National
Building
Environment
RatingScheme(NABERS)�GermanMinistryofTransport,
Construction,
�GermanMinistryofTransport,
Construction,
Germany
Germanyand Urban
Development(DGNB)
Sustainable
Building
Certificateand Urban
Development(DGNB)
Sustainable
Building
Certificate
�BREEAM-Netherlands
�BREEAM-Netherlands
Netherlands
Netherlands
�Eco�Eco
Quantum
Quantum
�JSBC
Comprehensive
Assessment
Systemfor Building
Environmental
�JSBC
Comprehensive
Assessment
Systemfor Building
Environmental
JapanJapan
Efficiency(CASBEE)
Efficiency(CASBEE)
KoreaKorea
�KoreaGreenGreen
Building
LabelLabel�KoreaBuilding
Singapore
Singapore �Building
and Construction
Authority(BCA)
GreenGreenMarkMark
�Buildingand Construction
Authority
(BCA)
�Hong
KongKong
Building
Environment
Assessment
Method�Hong
Building
Environment
Assessment
MethodHongHong
KongKong(HK-BEAM)(HK-BEAM)

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Technologies
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ReportReport31 31
CountryCountry
ChinaChina
IndiaIndia
BrazilBrazil

Assessment
Assessment
tool tool�ChinaGreenGreen
Building
Standard
�ChinaBuilding
Standard
�GreenOlympic
Building
Assessment
System(GOBAS)
�GreenOlympic
Building
Assessment
System(GOBAS)
�LEED-India,
�LEED-India,
2007 2007
Energyand Resources
Institute
GRIHA(TERI-GRIHA)
�The�The
Energyand Resources
Institute
GRIHA(TERI-GRIHA)
�LEED-Brazil
�LEED-Brazil
�AQUA
�AQUA

BREEAMBREEAMis theis first
the first
green
green
buildingbuilding
ratingratingtool toolin thein world,
the world,developed
developed
by by
Building
Building
ResearchResearch
Establishment
Establishment
(BRE)
(BRE)
and andprivateprivatesectorsectorresearchers
researchers
of UK
of UK
in in
1990.
1990.
It is Ita isvoluntarya voluntary
assessment
assessment
system.
system.
Recently,
Recently,
a toughera tougher
versionversionof theof thesystemsystemhas been
has been
released
releasedin 2008,
in 2008,emphasizing
emphasizing
moremoreon energy
on energy
efficiency
efficiency
and andrequiring
requiringmandatory
mandatory
credits.
credits.
The Thesystemsystemis recognizedis recognized
by UK
by UK
buildingbuilding
industryindustryand isandbeing
is being
adoptedadoptedin Canada,in Canada,
Australia,
Australia,
IndiaIndia
and and
EU countries.
EU countries.
USSBGCUSSBGCdeveloped
developed
the voluntary
the voluntary
LEED
LEED
ratingratingsystemsystemin 1998
in 1998
withwitha amarket-driven
market-driven
strategy
strategy
to accelerate
to accelerate
adoption
adoptionof greenof greenbuildingbuilding
practices
practices(Bowri,(Bowri,2004).
2004).
It was
It wasinspired
inspiredby BREEAM
by BREEAM
to serve
to serve
the building
the building
communitycommunity
in US.
in US.
OriginallyOriginallydeveloped
developed
for new
for new
commercial
commercial
buildings
buildings(LEED-NC),(LEED-NC),
LEED
LEED
has hasgonegonethroughthroughmajor
major
updateupdatein 2003in 2003and now
and now
severalseveralversions,
versions,
suchsuchas, LEEDas, LEED
for forHomes,
Homes,LEED
LEED
for Existingfor Existing
Buildings
Buildings(EB),(EB),
LEED
LEED
for Core
for Core
and and
ShellShell(CS),(CS),
LEED
LEED
for Commercial
for Commercial
Interiors,
Interiors,
LEED
LEED
for School,for School,
Healthcare
Healthcare& Retail& Retailand andLEEDLEEDfor Neighborhoodfor Neighborhood
development.
development.
AccordingAccordingto USGBC,
to USGBC,
the system
the system
will will
havehavea majora majoroverhauloverhaulin early
in early
2009.
2009.
In theIn new
the new
version,version,pointspointswill willbe allocatedbe allocateddifferently
differently
and andreweighed,reweighed,and andthe entire
the entire
process
process
will will
be flexible
be flexible
to adapt
to adapt
to tochangingchanging
technology,
technology,
account
account
for regional
for regional
differences
differencesand encourage
and encourage
innovation.
innovation.
OverOverthe years,
the years,
LEED
LEED
has gained
has gained
immenseimmensepopularity
popularity
aroundaroundthe world
the world
withwiththe thesystemsystembeingbeing
adoptedadoptedin countries
in countries
like like
Canada,Canada,UK, UK,
Brazil,Brazil,China,
China,
IndiaIndia
and andMiddle-East.
Middle-East.
Green
Green
Building
Building(2008)(2008)
reportedreported
that,that,nearlynearly4 billion
4 billioncommercial
commercial
buildingbuilding
space
space
is being
is being
registeredregisteredor certified
or certified
by LEEDby LEEDratingratingsystemsystemwithwithprojects
projects
in 69incountries
69 countries
and and57,400+57,400+accreditatedaccreditatedprofessionals.
professionals.
FigureFigure1 below
1 below
givesgives
a comparison
a comparison
betweenbetween
LEED-NC
LEED-NCand and
BREEAMBREEAM
20082008
in creditin credit
weightage
weightage
given
given
to different
to different
green
green
buildingbuildingfeaturesfeatures(Greenworkplace,(Greenworkplace,
AugAug11, 2008).
11, 2008).

FigureFigure1: Comparison
1: Comparisonof LEED-NC
of LEED-NC
and and
BREEAMBREEAM
20082008
weights
weights(source(source& copyright:& copyright:
Greenworkplace,
Greenworkplace,
Aug Aug
11, 2008
11, 2008
) )
Japan
Japan
Green
Green
Building
Building
Council
Council(JGBC)(JGBC)
unveiled
unveiled
the the
CASBEECASBEE
ratingratingGreen
Green
Buildings:
Buildings:
Current
Current
StatusStatusand Prospects
and Prospects

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October
2008,2008,
Beijing,
Beijing,
China
China

systemsystemfor new
for new
construction
construction
in 2004.
in 2004.
It hasIt four
has fourintegrated
integrated
toolstools
on building
on building
life- lifecycle:
cycle:
pre-design
pre-design
tool tool
for owners
for owners
and andplanners,
planners,
designdesigntool tool
for architects
for architects
and andengineers,
engineers,
environmental
environmental
labelinglabeling
tool tool
for forlabelinglabeling
bodybody
and andsustainable
sustainable
operation
operationand renovation
and renovation
tool tool
for owners
for owners
and caretakers.
and caretakers.
Noteworthy
Noteworthy
difference
difference
withwithLEEDLEEDand BREEAM
and BREEAM
is thatis thatit re-categorizes
it re-categorizes
the positive
the positive
buildingbuilding
attributes
attributes
to a toQualitya Quality(Q) (Q)
category
category
and andnegative
negative
attributes
attributes
as loading
as loading(L) category(L) category
to toestimate
estimatea Buildinga Building
Environmental
Environmental
Efficiency
Efficiency
(BEE)
(BEE)
indexindex
as Q/L.
as Q/L.
The Theconcept
concept
has gained
has gained
popularity
popularity
becausebecauseit canit canprovideprovidetrade-offtrade-off
betweenbetweenenvironmental
environmentalloadings
loadings
and quality
and qualityof spaceof space
provided.
provided.
Based
Based
on Q/Lon Q/Lvaluevalue
rankingranking
is given
is given
to a to abuilding’sbuilding’s
sustainability.
sustainability.
TableTable
2 lists
2 lists
the theratingratingcategories
categories
available
available
in in
BREEAM,BREEAM,
LEED
LEEDand CASBEE.
and CASBEE.
Table
Table
2 : Rating
2 : Rating
categories
categories
in BREEAM,
in BREEAM,
LEED
LEED
and CASBEE
and CASBEEBREEAMBREEAM
Excellent
Excellent
Very Very
GoodGood
GoodGood
Pass Pass

LEED
LEED
Platinum
PlatinumGold Gold
SilverSilver
CertifiedCertified

CASBEECASBEE
S
S
A A
B+ B+
B- BC C

DespiteDespitetheirtheirpositive
positive
influence
influenceon different
on different
stakeholders
stakeholders
in theinmovement,
the movement,
greengreen
buildingbuilding
assessment
assessment
toolstools
suchsuchas LEEDas LEEDor BREEAM
or BREEAM
are criticized
are criticized
for fortheirtheirlack lackof assessmentof assessment
scope
scope
post-construction.
post-construction.
Critics
Criticsargueargue
that,that,thesethesesystems
systems
award
award
pointspointsbasedbasedon designon design
featuresfeaturespre-construction
pre-construction
which
which
may may
not not
be constructed
be constructed
properly
properly
as designed
as designed(such(suchas sealing
as sealing
tightnesstightnessin windows).
in windows).
Additionally,
Additionally,
simulated
simulatedusageusage
patternpatternof resources,of resources,
suchsuch
as energy
as energy
or water,or water,duringduringdesigndesignphasephase
may may
be drasticallybe drasticallydifferent
different
duringduringutilization.
utilization.
Certification
Certification
not before
not before
but after
but after
construction,
construction,and based
and basedon fewon few
yearsyearsof energyof energy& resources& resources
utilization
utilization
data,data,
is oftenis oftenrecommended.
recommended.
OthersOtherspointpointout out
the thenecessity
necessityof of
integrating
integrating
LCA-based
LCA-based
analysisanalysis
into into
the systems.
the systems.
Also,Also,
cautioncautionis advisedis advised
beforebeforeusingusing
a foreigna foreignsystemsystemin localin localconditions,conditions,as a assystema systemdeveloped
developed
for aforcertaina certain
country
country
may may
not produce
not produce
expected
expected
performance
performance
whenwhenappliedappliedin anotherin anothercountry
country
due toduedifferences
to differencesin climatic,in climatic,
economic
economic
and culturaland cultural
conditions.
conditions.
BothBoth
LEED
LEEDand and
BREEAMBREEAMare addressing
are addressingthesetheseissuesissuesin theirin theirlatestlatest
and coming
and coming
versions.
versions.
5. COSTS
5. COSTS
ANDANDBENEFITSBENEFITSOF GREEN
OF GREENBUILDINGSBUILDINGS
Green
Green
buildings
buildings
are often
are often
citedcited
to incur
to incurhigherhighercost,cost,
which
which
is provedis proved
as aas a
misconception
misconception
by byseveralseveralrecentrecentstudies.
studies.
AccordingAccordingto Nelson
to Nelson(2007),(2007),
examination
examinationof 33ofLEED
33 LEED
officeofficeand andschoolschoolbuildings
buildings
in 2003in 2003by abyconsultant
a consultant
firm firm
CapitaCapitaE Analysis
E Analysis
found
found
that,that,
overalloverallcost costpremium
premiumfor greenfor greenbuildings
buildings
to to
be about
be about
2%, 2%,
averagingaveraging
0.7%0.7%
for thefor LEED-certified
the LEED-certified
buildings,
buildings,
2.1%2.1%
for thefor theLEED-Silver,
LEED-Silver,
1.8%1.8%
for thefor theLEED-Gold,
LEED-Gold,and and6.5%6.5%
for thefor theLEED-Platinum
LEED-Platinumbuilding.
building.
The Thestudystudy
also also
found
found
that,that,cost costpremiums
premiums
declineddeclined
as regional
as regional
experience
experiencein greenin greenbuildingbuilding
increased.
increased.
Another
Anothercomprehensive
comprehensive
20052005
studystudy
by byengineeringengineering
firm firm
MorrisonMorrison
Hersh
Hersh
fieldfield
reviewed
reviewed
four four
U.S.U.S.
studiesstudiesand estimatedand estimatedconstruction
construction
cost costpremium
premium
required
required
to meetto meetdifferent
different
levelslevelsof LEEDof LEEDcertification.
certification.
TheirTheirresultresult
showedshowedcost costpremiums
premiums
averaged
averaged
onlyonly
0.8%0.8%
for thefor theLEED
LEEDcertifiedcertifiedbuildings,
buildings,
3.5%3.5%
for thefor LEED-Silver,
the LEED-Silver,
and and4.5%4.5%
for thefor LEEDthe LEEDGoldGold
and andjumpedjumpedto 11.5%
to 11.5%
for LEED-Platinumfor LEED-Platinumbuildings.
buildings.
There
There
is increasing
is increasing

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consensus
consensus
among
among
green
green
buildingbuilding
developers
developers
that,that,withwith
carefulcarefulplanning
planning
and andintegrated
integrated
designdesignof theof sustainable
the sustainable
concepts,
concepts,
the cost
the cost
premium
premium
can canindeedindeedbe beminimalminimalto non-existent
to non-existent(Nelson,(Nelson,2007).
2007).
The Thebenefits
benefitsof greenof greenbuildingbuilding
can cancomecome
fromfrom
energyenergyand andwater
water
savings,savings,
reducedreducedwaste,
waste,improved
improvedindoor
indoorenvironmental
environmentalquality,
quality,increased
increased
comfort/productivity,
comfort/productivity,
reducedreducedemployeeemployeehealthhealthcostscosts
and andlower
lower
operation
operation
and andmaintenancemaintenancecostscosts(Kats,(Kats,
2003).
2003).According
Accordingto USGBC,
to USGBC,
LEED-certified
LEED-certified
buildings
buildings
are are25-30%
25-30%
moremoreenergyenergyefficient
efficientand andmoremorelikelylikelyto generate
to generate
renewable
renewableenergy.
energy.
Another
Anotherstudystudy
by Co
by StarCo Stargroup
group
in 2008,
in 2008,
found
found
that,that,
EnergyEnergystar star
and and
LEED-certified
LEED-certified
buildings
buildings
has higher
has higher
occupancy
occupancy
rate,rate,
higherhigherrentalrentalrate rateand higher
and higher
sale salepricepriceper square
per square
feet feetwhenwhencomparedcompared
withwith
conventional
conventionalbuildings.
buildings.
For existing
For existingbuildings,
buildings,
studiesstudieshavehave
found
found
that that
payback
payback
periodperiodfor various
for various
green
green
retro-fitting
retro-fitting
shouldshouldbe between
be between
3 to 36 toyears
6 years(Nelson,(Nelson,2007).
2007).
6. FUTURE
6. FUTURE
DIRECTIONSDIRECTIONS
All trends
All trends
clearly
clearlyshowshowthat,that,greengreen
buildingbuilding
movement
movement
worldwide
worldwideis picking
is picking
up up
momentum.
momentum.
StartStartof variousof various
green
green
buildingbuilding
programs
programs
in keyin keyfuturefuturegrowth
growthcountries
countries
suchsuch
as China,
as China,planning
planningof mandatedof mandated
green
green
buildingbuilding
programprogramin India,in India,releasereleaseof newerof newerversionversionof BREEAM
of BREEAM
systemsystemand andthe coming
the coming
versionversionof LEEDof LEEDin 2009
in 2009
are arefewer
fewer
examplesexamplesto indicate
to indicate
tremendous
tremendous
growth
growthahead
ahead
for greenfor greenbuildings
buildings
as anasindustry.
an industry.
Many
Many
havehavesaid said
yearyear20072007
to betothe
be tipping
the tipping
pointpoint
for forgreen
green
buildingbuilding
construction.
construction.
By aggressive
By aggressive
estimates,
estimates,
annualannualLEED-NC
LEED-NCand and
CS CS
combined
combined
is expected
is expected
to reachto reach
about
about
200 200
millionmillionsquaresquarefoot footfromfrom
about
about
30 30
millionmillionsquaresquarefoot footin 2006
in 2006(Nelson,(Nelson,2007).
2007).
LaunchingLaunchingof UNEP-SBCIof UNEP-SBCIin 2006
in 2006
and andUnitedUnitedNationNationFramework
Framework
Convention
Convention
on Climate
on Climate
ChangeChange(UNFCCC)’s(UNFCCC)’s
decision
decisionto prioritize
to prioritizebuildingbuilding
sectorsectorin comingin coming
Conference
Conferenceof Parties
of Parties(COP)-14(COP)-14
in December
in December
20082008
in Polandin Poland
will will
also also
accelerate
accelerateawareness
awareness
about
about
greenergreenerbuildingbuilding
among
among
different
different
stakeholders.
stakeholders.
Additionally,
Additionally,
increasing
increasingemphasisemphasison onlocalized
localized
renewable
renewableenergyenergygeneration
generation
and andcurrent
current
rapidrapid
growth
growthof otherof othercleancleantechtech
sectors
sectors
are likely
are likely
to giveto giveboostboost
to theto sector.
the sector.
Deployment
Deployment
of innovative,of innovative,
cheap
cheap
and andenergyenergyefficient
efficienttechnologies
technologies
suchsuch
as Light
as Light
Emitting
Emitting
Diode
Diode
(LED)
(LED)
providingprovidingcleanclean
brightbrightlightlightwill will
likelylikelygivegive
greatgreat
impetus
impetusto theto movement
the movement
and andwill will
be keybe keyto bring
to bring
the movement
the movement
successfully
successfully
to lower
to lower
incomeincomecountries.
countries.
LastLast
but but
not not
the theleast,least,
withwithproperproperplanning
planning
and andactiveactiveparticipation
participationof relevantof relevant
stakeholders,
stakeholders,potential-laden
potential-laden
Information
Information
and Communication
and Communication
Technology
Technology
(ICT)
(ICT)
sectorsectorcan canprovideprovideadded
added
efficiency
efficiency
by itsby “enablingits “enabling
effect”.
effect”.
The TherecentrecentSMART2020
SMART2020(2008)(2008)
reportreporthas shownhas shown
that,that,throughthrough
deployment
deploymentof properof proper
ICT,ICT,buildings
buildings
can cansignificantly
significantly
savesaveenergyenergyconsumption
consumption
and andreducereduceGHGGHGemissionemission
to an
to extent
an extentof 15%of 15%
in 2020.
in 2020.
To achieve
To achieve
this thispotential,
potential,
the thereportreportoutlinedoutlinedmeasuresmeasuressuchsuchas, intelligent
as, intelligent
lighting
lighting
and and
HVAC
HVAC(Heating,(Heating,
Ventilation,
Ventilation,
Air- Airconditioning),
conditioning),
voltagevoltage
optimization,
optimization,
installation
installationof ICT-basedof ICT-based
BMSBMS(Building(BuildingManagement
Management
System)System)and smartand smartgrids.grids.
7. CONCLUSION
7. CONCLUSION
WithWith
importanceimportancein immediate
in immediate
actionactionfor climate
for climatechangechangemitigation,
mitigation,
depletingdepletingnaturalnaturalresources
resources
and increasing
and increasingenergyenergycost,cost,
green
green
buildings
buildings
are poised
are poised
to betothe
be theGreen
Green
Buildings:
Buildings:
Current
Current
StatusStatusand Prospects
and Prospects

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October
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2008,2008,
Beijing,
Beijing,
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futurefutureof buildingof building
and andconstruction
constructionindustry.
industry.
Green
Green
buildings
buildings
are right
are right
step step
towards
towards
sustainable
sustainable
low lowcarboncarbonsocietysocietyprovidingproviding
added
added
benefits
benefitsof healthof healthand andcomfortcomfortand andachievedachieved
at minimal
at minimalor negative
or negative
costscosts
to theto users.
the users.
Assessment
Assessment
systems
systemsfor greenfor greenbuildingbuilding
are proving
are proving
to betouseful
be usefulframework
frameworkto achieveto achieve
the theintendedintendedgoalsgoals
whilewhile
presenting
presenting
it with
it witha businessa businesscase.case.
ComingComingyearsyears
are likely
are likely
to seetoexplosivesee explosive
growth
growthin greenin greenbuildingbuilding
investment
investment
acrossacrossthe world
the worldwith withmoremoregovernment
government
mandatesmandates
and increasing
and increasing
publicpublicinterest.
interest.
In coming
In coming
years,
years,
innovative
innovativeand cost-effective
and cost-effective
technologies
technologies
as wellas wellas incorporation
as incorporationof existingof existing
technologies
technologies
in smartin smart
waysways
will willbe thebe keythe key
to increase
to increase
the energy
the energy
efficiency
efficiency
and and
GHGGHG
reduction
reduction
potential
potentialof greenof greenbuildings.
buildings.
REFERENCESREFERENCES
Building
BuildingGreen,
Green,
Sep.1,Sep.1,
2008.2008.
D.C. D.C.
Requires
Requires
Building
Building
OwnersOwnersto Report
to Report
EnergyEnergyUse. Use.
http://www.buildinggreen.com/auth/article.cfm/2008/8/28/D-C-Requireshttp://www.buildinggreen.com/auth/article.cfm/2008/8/28/D-C-RequiresBuilding-O
Building-O
captured
captured
Sep 19,Sep2008.
19, 2008.
Building
BuildingGreen,
Green,
Sep Sep
16, 2008.
16, 2008.
EnergyEnergyUse UseReporting
Reporting
Mandated
Mandatedin California.
in California.
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Building
Building
Science,
Science,2008.2008.
Towards
Towards
Sustainability:
Sustainability:
GreenGreen
Buildings,
Buildings,
Sustainability
Sustainability
Objectives.
Objectives.
And And
Building
Building
America
America
Whole
Whole
House
House
Systems
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Research,Research,ResearchResearch
Resport-0801.
Resport-0801.
Building
Building
Science
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Corporation.
Corporation.
Cole,Cole,R.J., R.J.,
Howard,Howard,N., Ikaga,N., Ikaga,T., andT., andNibelNibelS., 2005.
S., 2005.
Building
Building
environmental
environmental
assessment
assessment
tools:tools:
current
current
and futureand futureroles,roles,
Unit Unit
4/5. World
4/5. World
Sustainable
Sustainable
Building
Building
Conference,
Conference,
September
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2005,2005,
Tokyo.
Tokyo.
DeutcheDeutcheBankBank
Research,Research,
2008.2008.
Megacities:
Megacities:
Boundless
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GrowthGrowth?.Editor:?.Editor:
JosefJosef
Auer,Auer,
DeutcheDeutcheBankBank
Research.
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EurActive,
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Sep 15,
Sep2008.
15, 2008.
Report:Report:Slow Slowprogress
progresson greening
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Sep 19,Sep200819, 2008
EurActive,
EurActive,
Apr Apr26, 26,
2008,2008,
GreenGreen
Buildings.
Buildings.
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European
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Council
CouncilJapan,
Japan,
Jul 2008.
Jul 2008.
ThermalThermalinsulation
insulation- a key- a tokeyimproved
to improved
energyenergyefficiency
efficiencyand andreduced
reducedCO2 CO2emissions
emissionsin inJapan.
Japan.
http://www.ebcjp.com/news/EBC%20Thermal%20position%20paper%20July%2
http://www.ebcjp.com/news/EBC%20Thermal%20position%20paper%20July%2
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GreenGreenbuildingbuilding
ratingrating
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ASHRAEASHRAE
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Building,
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USGBC
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and LEED.
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Sep 2008,
Sep 2008,
USGBC.
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GreenWorkplace,
GreenWorkplace,Aug 11,
Aug2008.
11, 2008.
BREEAMBREEAM- the -UK
theequivalent
UK equivalent
to LEED
to LEED- toughens- toughens
up. up.
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Hikmat,Hikmat,H., and
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Developing
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Building
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EnergyEnergyEfficiency
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: Why
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(Edited(Editedby: by:Margarethe,
Margarethe,P.L.),P.L.),
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GreenGreenbuildingbuilding
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Collaborative,
8 pp.8 pp.

732 732

New New
Technologies
for Urban
SafetySafetyof Mega
CitiesCities
in Asia
Technologies
for Urban
of Megain AsiaICUSICUS
ReportReport31 31
Larsson.
and Cole,Greenbuilding
challenge:
the development
Larsson.
N.K.,N.K.,
and Cole,
R.J,, R.J,,
2001.2001.
Greenbuilding
challenge:
the developmentof anof an
Building
Scienceand Information,
29(5),
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idea.idea.
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Martin,J., Swett,
B., andDoug,
Residentialbuildings:
identifying
Martin,J., Swett,
B., andDoug,
W., W.,
2007.2007.
Residential
greengreen
buildings:
identifying
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key drivers
for sector
growth.
Master’s
Project,
Schoollatentlatentdemandand key
for sector
growth.
Master’s
Project,
RossRoss
Schoolof Business,
Universityof Michigan,
93 pp.
of Business,
Universityof Michigan,
AprilApril
2007,2007,
93 pp.
Nelson,Greeningof U.S.
Investment
Estate–Market
Nelson,A.J.,A.J.,
2007.2007.
The TheGreeningof U.S.
Investment
Real Real
Estate–MarketFundamentals,
Prospects
and Opportunities.
RREEF
Research,
47 pp.
Fundamentals,
Prospects
and Opportunities.
RREEF
Research,
47 pp.
Reuter,Germany
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Reuter,Apr Apr20, 20,2007.2007.
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labelsfor forhomes.
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captured
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Sep 19,SMART
Enabling
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SMART
2020,2020,2008.2008.
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economyin theage. age.
The TheClimateGroup,
87 pp.
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87 pp.
Straube,J., 2006.
Green
Building
Sustainability.
Building
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US-EPA,Green
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UnitedStatesEnvironmental
Protection
Agency,http://www.epa.gov/greenbuilding/pubs/about.htm
captured
Sep2008.
19 2008.
http://www.epa.gov/greenbuilding/pubs/about.htm
captured
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Sustainable
Buildings& Construction
Initiative,
Information
UNEP-SBCI,2006.2006.
Sustainable
Buildings& Construction
Initiative,
20062006
Information
UnitedNations
Development
Program,
12 pp.
Note,Note,
UnitedNations
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Program,
12 pp.

Green
Green
Buildings:
Buildings:
Current
Current
StatusStatusand Prospects
and Prospects

733 733

October
October
2008,2008,
Beijing,
Beijing,
ChinaChina

734 734

New New
Technologies
for Urban
SafetySafetyof Mega
CitiesCities
in Asia
Technologies
for Urban
of Megain AsiaCYCLONE DISASTER RISK OFBANGLADESH
M. A. NOOR1 and N. AHMED2
1
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000,
Bangladesh,2
Public Works Department, Dhaka, Bangladesh
1mnoor@ce.buet.ac.bd
ABSTRACT
Several powerful periodic cyclones during final years of the 1990s
and early of 2000 remind us, Bangladesh still remains at high risk of human,economic and social losses in the face of natural disasters. Cyclone
research in Bangladesh has been mainly dominated by geographical andtechnological approaches rather than social or risk perspectives. Probably
this is because cyclone mainly considered as physical phenomena. While itis related to physical phenomena, it mostly affects society, community,
people, institutions, environment and the overall countries development.
Finally, this turns into serious threat to meet the target of MDG’s. Althougha considerable improvements in recognition, prediction, mitigative
measures, and warning systems, the economic losses and casualties due toover population on the costal areas remains high. In order to improveunderstanding the relationship between development and disaster risk at the
global level, UNDP has started development of a Disaster Risk Index (DRI).
In this paper, it is argued that less attention has been given to conducting in
depth research on disasters, especially from risk perspective. This paper
presented different perspective of cyclone risk assessment and establishedcyclone Disaster Risk Index (DRI) for the local level for Bangladesh. This
will help to prepare and plan habitable human settlements at coastal areas.
1. INTRODUCTION
According to Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR),
Asia is the most disaster-prone continent, with China, Bangladesh, India andIran on top of the list when measured by absolute number of affected people(Sørensen et al, 2006). Impact of Natural Disasters on GDP of Bangladesh,1990-2000 is 5.21% (DFID Report, 2005). Among 84 high cyclone prone
countries around the world with highly populated coastal areas and deltas,
Bangladesh, China, India, the Philippines, and Japan are at risk (UNDP,
2004). Cyclone is a characteristic feature of Bangladesh’s physicalenvironment and accepted as a normal hazard of social and economic life of
Bangladesh. Historically, cyclone is mentioned as a disaster in this belt inthe book Ain-e-Akbari of 16th century. During the last three decades almost
all of the coastal areas and offshore islands of Bangladesh faced cyclones.
A DFID scoping study found that poverty alleviation, development
and disaster risk reduction (DRR) are highly correlated (DFID report 2005).
Inadequate attention to DRR can hinder progress in poverty alleviation and735

October 2008, Beijing, China

sustainable development. Most recently to improve understanding therelationship between development and disaster risk at the global level,
UNDP has started development of a Disaster Risk Index (DRI) for
individual country. In this paper, it is argued that less attention has been
given to conducting in depth research on disasters, especially from risk
perspective. This paper is an attempt to assess the cyclone risk in different
perspective from UNDP and attempted to calculate cyclone Disaster Risk
Index (DRI) for local level coastal areas for Bangladesh, rather for wholecountry.
2. TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONESThe Bay of Bengal is potentially energetic for cyclonic storms due to its
favorable atmospheric and oceanic condition. Therefore, the highest
incidence of TCs, almost 7% of total number of annual storms, located here.
Amongst two storms generate winds of 55 mph or greater (as cited in
Bowditch, 1977). Mainly, two cyclonic seasons are in the north Indian
Ocean, viz. pre-monsoon (especially May) and post-monsoon (especially
October and November). A few cyclones form in transitional monsoon
months June and September also. Singh et al (2001) have shown an
increased TC frequency during November and May over the north Indian
Ocean from 1877 to 1998.
3. IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Cyclones lead to several social, economic and environmental losses. The
overall impact is country’s ability to recover from this human and material
damage, depends on several factors. The impact of the same cyclone
between two countries is different in terms of fatalities, the number ofpeople affected and the damage cost. For example, Hurricane Andrew
struck Florida in 1992 with 23 people loosing their lives. While a similar
tropical wind storm hit Bangladesh in 1991, resulting in 100,000 deaths andthe displacement of millions of individuals from widespread flooding(Adger et al, 2005; as cited in DFID, 2005). Whereas the cyclone of 1970
took the lives of 300,000 people but the cyclone of the same intensity of1991 killed 138,000 people, and the cyclones of 1997 and 1998 resulted inonly 111 and 19 deaths respectively, as shown in Table 1.
Year
1970

Table 1: Impact of Cyclones in Bangladesh

Scale

DeathsAffected /Displaced
3,648,000

Total Damages(US$ ‘ 000s)
86,400Similar to 1991 and 300,000
1997 3,648,000
1991
235 kmph
138,000
15,438,849
1,780,000
1997
250 kmph
111
3,052,738
Not available
1998
150 kmph
19
108,944
Not available
2007
220 kmph>4,000Source: DFID (2005)
Note: The cyclones of 1970, 1991 and 1997 were of the same intensity

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ICUS Report 31

Beneficial climatic and soil conditions of cyclone-prone coastal areasof Bangladesh derived several economic activities like agriculture, fisheries
and tourism. But the periodic attack of cyclones destructs the infrastructureand destroys livelihoods. In addition to the settlement patterns population
growth and increased rural/urban migration act as increasing dynamic
pressures to people’s exposure to cyclone. Moreover, losses act together
with other financial, political, health and environmental issues. Suchdisaster losses may setback social investments aiming to poverty and hunger,
provide access to education, health services, safe housing, drinking waterand sanitation, or to protect the environment as well as the economic
investments. Thus it retards the 8 targets of MDG’s for a sustainable
development. Table 22 shows a scenario of the severity. It is imperative tohave a method of calculating the impact of cyclones in social and economic
life of people.
Table 2 Summarized Table of severe wind storm in Bangladesh from 1904
to 2007
Types

No. ofKilledEventsInjuredHomeless

Affected

Total
Affected

Wave /
2
3
10
12,000012,010
Surge
Wind
153
618,599 930,113 9,972,568 61,999,305 72,901,986
Storm
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Created on Feb-102008. Events recorded from Nov/1904- Nov/2007

4. VULNERABILITY PATTERNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are many dimensions of vulnerability. Among these social
vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies towithstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors and shocks like natural
disasters to which they are exposed.
Mainly people of Bangladesh are vulnerable to disasters for threereasons. Firstly, the important type of vulnerability- poverty. It is anindicator of lack of access to resources, income opportunities andinequitable distribution of power. People of Bangladesh are poor andmarginalized; it is difficult for them to access resources such as
development loans or land. People here are simply unable to recover theirlosses due to their miserable poverty. In addition to the economic dimension,
there are also other aspects of social positioning such as class, religion,community structure, community decision making processes and politicalissues that determine poor people’s vulnerability. Therefore, poor are
economically as well as vulnerable to social, cultural and political capacities
to cope with disasters.
Second is vulnerable livelihood of the people. According to DFID
(2005), this has three components - livelihood assets (human, social,physical, natural and financial capital), livelihood strategies and livelihood
outcomes. This sort of vulnerability arises due to shortage of jobs, low
income, declining natural resources, and decreasing profitability of rice
Cyclone Disaster Risk of Bangladesh

737

October 2008, Beijing, China

farming. Frequently cyclones adversely affect the livelihoods of people bydamaging their means of earning (destruction of the factory, loss of land due
to erosion in flooding, destruction of the shop) and/or tools (loss of draught
animals, plowing tools, etc) in case of Bangladesh.
Third, patterns of natural resource use are changing, as urban
development and commercial quarrying and environmental degradation.
Localized and systemic environmental degradation is becoming highly
influential as well, lowering the natural resilience to cyclones. Phenomena
like El Niño/La Niña, climate change and the potential for rising sea levels,
are affecting the patterns and intensity of cyclones.
5. DISASTER RISK APPROACHES
Alexander (1993) identified six schools of thought on natural hazards anddisaster studies: the geographical approach, the anthropological approach,the sociological approach, the development studies approach, the disastermedicine approach and the technical approach. Among these approaches
two disciplines, geography and sociology, have dominated the field of
disaster research since the 1950s and have emphasized the environmental
and behavioral aspects of disaster. Unfortunately, only recently researchers
turned their attentions to the larger questions of social change related todisaster or the pre-impact conditions in disaster areas as sources of postimpact changes (Oliver-Smith, 1986).
Although both the geographical and sociological approaches havedominated in developed societies, in Bangladesh it mainly followed thegeographical approach. Disaster research from sociological approach isdone only in rare occasions in Bangladesh (Nasreen, 2004). Probably this isbecause cyclone mainly considered as Hydro-meteorological event. But
though it is related to physical phenomena, it mostly affects society,community, people, institutions, environment and the overall countries
development.
Since 1970s, engineers, architects, social scientists, social activists all
have been highlighted on the impact of natural hazards. They find that the
impacts not only depend on the physical resistance of a structure, but on thecapacity of people to absorb the impact and recover from loss or damage.
Now it is clear that development processes were not only generating
different patterns of vulnerability, but were also changing and increasing
patterns of hazard due to events such as impact of global climate change.
Finally, disasters are no more viewed as extreme events created entirely bynatural forces but as unresolved problems of development (Yodmani, 2000).
Thus the focus of interest moved to social and economic vulnerability, withincreasing evidence that natural hazards had widely varying impacts on
different social groups and on different countries. According to Munich Re
during the last four decades economic losses have increased more than ten
times per decade. The causal factors of disaster thus shifted from the natural
event towards the development processes that generated different levels ofvulnerability. Disaster Risk has been presented by Ward, 1999 as follows:
Hazard � Vulnerability
Disaster risk �Manageability
738

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Manageability here stands for the degree to which a community canintervene and manage a hazard in order to reduce its potential impact.
Manageability is synonymous to Capacity so we can substitute to have thefollowing disaster risk formula:
Disaster risk=

Hazard * Vulnerability
Capacity

6. DISASTER RISK INDEXDisaster Risk can be expressed in different ways for example by the numberof people killed, percentage killed or percentage killed as compared to the
exposed population. Each of these measures has advantages andinconveniences. As per the UNDP report this paper use the first two for DRI
for cyclone calculation, and the percentage killed as compared to the
exposed population for calculating relative vulnerability. Though exposed
populations to cyclone should not be compared without standardization.
UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery made a global
report “Reducing Disaster Risk - A Challenge For Development (2004)”
that provides the Disaster Risk Index (DRI), as the first global assessment ofdisaster risk factors through country-by-country. “It enables the calculationof the average risk of death per country with comparison of humanvulnerability and exposure to three critical natural hazards: earthquake,
tropical cyclones and flooding. It also identified of development factors that
contribute to disaster risk. In the DRI, this relationship is expressed throughthe concept of physical exposure, referring to the number of people locatedin areas where hazardous events occur combined with the frequency ofhazard events. Physical exposure is not an indicator of vulnerability, but is acondition sine qua non for disaster risk to exist. It also enables theidentification of a number of socio-economic and environmental variables
that are correlated with risk to death and which may point to causal
processes of disaster risk.” In the DRI, countries are indexed for each hazard
type according to their degree of physical exposure, their degree of relative
vulnerability and their degree of risk which is calculated using following
formulaR � PhExp �Vul
(1)
Where, PhExp is the physical exposure, i.e. the frequency and severity
multiplied by exposed population; Vulnerability is the concept that explains
why, with a given level of physical exposure, people are more or less at risk.
In theory, vulnerability is modified by coping capacity and adaptive
capacity.
Two methods are available for calculating physical exposure. First, by
multiplying hazard frequency by the population living in each exposed area.
The frequencies of hazards were calculated for different strengths of event,and physical exposure was computed as follows,
PhExp � � Fi � Popi

Cyclone Disaster Risk of Bangladesh

(2)

739

October 2008, Beijing, China

Where, PhExp is the physical exposure at national level, Fi is theannual frequency of a specific magnitude event in one spatial unit; Popi isthe total population living in the spatial unit.
A second method was used when data on the annual frequency ofreturn of a specific magnitude event was not available. In this case
(Cyclone), physical exposure was computed by dividing the exposed
population by the numbers of years when a particular event had taken place
as shown below,
Popi
(3)
Yn
Where, Popi is the total population living in a particular buffer, theradius of which from the eye varies according to the strength, Yn is thelength of time in years PhExp is the total physical exposure of a country(here used for second level administrative area, namely district), in otherwords the sum of all physical exposure in this country (here district).
Frequency of cyclone is calculated based on the following formula,E ( x ) � � � � ln(1 � P( x � 1)
(4)
Where, E(x) is the statistical expectation, i.e. the average number of
events per year, P(x) is the probability of occurrence.
Here, to obtain physical exposure, a frequency per year was derived
for each cell. Cells were divided to follow district borders, and thenpopulation was extracted and multiplied by frequency in order to obtain the
average yearly physical exposure for each cell (BBS, 2006). For simplicity,
cyclones are grouped in one category. Here, equation 2 is used to ascertain
physical exposure of population of a particular locality.
PhExp � �

7. CYCLONE DRI AND BANGLADESHDRI help to assess cyclone disaster risk for the individual areas of
Bangladesh to find a holistic picture of the country. It calibrated according
to the risk of death between 1980 and 2007.
Here, data from 23 coastal districts of Bangladesh were selected for
DRI calculation from 1980 to 2007. This is because of the data before thisperiod is not reliable. 191 cyclones in the period of 28 years have been
considered. Total population of these coastal areas is 43.7 million. The key
steps followed in producing the DRI, according to UNDP report, were:
7.1 Calculation of Physical Exposure

People are more or less vulnerable to cyclone depending on a range ofsocial, economic, cultural, political and physical variables. The risk of deathin a natural disaster is a function of physical exposure and vulnerability tocyclone. The DRI calculated for the areas exposed to cyclones and the
population living in these areas to arrive at a calculation of physicalexposure for each district. This is the average number of people exposed toa hazard event in a given year. Physical exposure varies both according to
the number of people as well as to the frequency of cyclone. In the DRI,
physical exposure is expressed both in absolute terms (the number of people
exposed in a country) and in relative terms (the number exposed per million
740

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

people). When more people are killed with respect to the number exposed,
the relative vulnerability to the hazard in question is higher. BBS (2006),
population data have been used to calculate physical exposure.
7.2 Calculation of Relative Vulnerability

Vulnerability of locality depends on the physical exposure of a spatial
unit and no of the death for a particular disaster. Here, for a set of cyclones
and for a district relative vulnerability is the total number death in million to
the exposed population to those cyclones. Total number of death for each
cyclone was taken from EM-DAT database.
7.3 Results and Discussion

Figure 1 reveals that loss of human life from cyclone is tied todevelopment status of a region. Low and medium developed areas havealmost similar loss patterns. While, some developed areas are occupying thebottom part of the graph indicating low numbers of fatalities per million. No
developed region has recorded more than 200 deaths per million populationfrom 1980-2007.

Figure 1: Development status and disaster deaths

This observation reinforces intuitive views about the disasterdevelopment relationship. This heightens the inequality especially in ruralchar areas. Livelihoods there at risk due a range of factors: poverty and asset
depletion, environmental degradation, market pressures, isolation andremoteness, the weakness or lack of social services and climate change.
Therefore, contemporary patterns of urbanization and rural livelihoods
needs to be viewed alongside other critical development pressures.
The size of exposed populations with the number of recorded deaths
to cyclones is used as a measure of relative vulnerability as shown in Figure
2. The areas closest to the shoreline of the Bay of Bengal show highest
relative vulnerability. The large number of recorded deaths shows that inthis case high vulnerability accompanies high physical exposure. Most
vulnerable areas can be identified from the figure which is middle of thesouthern part. It should be noted form the Figure 3 that the highest no
average cyclone occurs in south eastern mainly Chittagong area. Though
Cyclone Disaster Risk of Bangladesh741

October 2008, Beijing, China

having highest no of death and highest no of average cyclones per year thisare is less vulnerable than other coastal region. Mainly, physical exposure in
million populations is very large, and the area is more developed than otherareas.

Figure 2: Relative vulnerability at district level for 1980 to 2007 cyclone

Figure 3: Average storm per year for individual district

The analysis carried out for tropical cyclone risk showed a strong
correlation between physical exposure and human development. An areawith large, predominantly rural populations and with a low development ismost closely associated with cyclone risk. There are a number of reasons forthis. Rural housing in many areas are tend to be more vulnerable to highwinds, flooding and landslides than urban housing and are generally be
742

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

associated with higher mortality. Conversely, the weakness or nonexistenceof emergency and rescue services in rural areas and lack of access todisaster preparedness and early warning are all other factors that would help
to explain mortality rates. The cyclone preparedness programme in
Bangladesh is one of the few success stories. By coupling cyclone sheltersand community-based preparedness measures, the programme has managed
to dramatically reduce vulnerability from the 1970s to the (still high) levels
observed in the 1980-2007 reporting period (Table 1).
8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

From the above analyses it can be concluded that there is a good
relationship between the cyclone risk and development process in
Bangladesh. DRI can be a useful tool for this purpose. It has also been
established, here, that social, economic and livelihood analysis is vital incalculating DRI. But with out good governance achieving development isvery difficult. Changing governance always offers possibilities for the
integration of international with national and local action to reduce disasterrisk. The increased role played by civil society in poverty alleviation,
development and disaster risk reduction highlights the capacity of local
actors to organize and confront disaster risk. More positively, meeting thetargets of MDG’s could result in a substantial reduction of cyclone disasterrisk.
Governance is a critical area for innovation and reform in achieving
cyclone risk reduction within human development. It is important to identify
those governance tools that will be likely to simultaneously benefit disasterrisk reduction and human development. This would include a presumption
for equality in participation in decision making across genders, religious andethnic groups and economic classes. It is also important to identify
governance reform that might inadvertently contribute to the generating of
human vulnerability. Social networks are often in competition with one
another and though this is not a bad thing in itself, when disaster ordevelopment aid is fed through and strengthens clientelistic networks thiscan foster corruption and inequality, further entrenching disaster risk. The
theme good governance and the analysis of the DRI should contemplateeach other.
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Alexander, D. (1993), Natural Disasters. London: UCL Press.
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Bowditch, N., (1977), The American Practical Navigator, Vol 1, U.S.
Department of Defense
Briefing Notes, Compiled for the 5th Working Group Meeting of the AsianUrban Disaster Mitigation Program, Cambodia, 23-25 February 2000,
Organized by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok, Thailand.
DFID (2005), Natural Disaster and Disaster Risk Reduction Measures- A
Desk Review of Costs and Benefits, Report, 8 December, 2005

Cyclone Disaster Risk of Bangladesh743

October 2008, Beijing, China

Nasreen M. (2004) Disaster Research: Exploring the Sociological Approach
to Disaster in Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology. Vol. 1. No. 2. July,
2004.
Oliver-Smith, A. (1986), Disaster Context and Causation: An Overview of
Changing Perspective in Disaster Research' in Vinson H. Sutlive et al(Eds) Natural Disasters and Cultural Responses. Williamsburg:
Department of Anthropology, College of William and Mary.
Singh, O. P.; Khan, T. M. A. and Rahman, M. S. (2001), Frequency oftropical cyclones increased in the north Indian Ocean? CURRENTSCIENCE, VOL. 80, NO. 4, 25 February 2001.
Sørensen, J.; Vedeld, T. and Haug, M. (2006), Natural hazards anddisasters- Drawing on the international experiences from disaster
reduction in developing countries REPORT (16. January 2006),
Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR).
UNDP (2004), Reducing Disaster Risk – A challenge for development, a
global report. Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, New York.
Yodmani S (2000) Paper Presented on “Disaster Risk Management andVulnerability Reduction: Protecting the Poor” at The Asia and Pacific
Forum on Poverty, Organized by the Asian Development Bank.

744

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

TRAFFIC FLOW ANALYSIS FOR AN
APPROPRIATE EVALUATION OF
LOST TIME IN SIGNAL CONTROLSHINJI TANAKA, TAKESHI ONO amd MASAO KUWAHARA
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
stanaka@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
An appropriate evaluation of lost time in signal control theory is quite
important because it affects the determination of the cycle time. Analyzing
observed vehicle trajectory data at different intersections, this study
evaluates the all red time focusing on the conflict points and calculates thelost time properly based on the saturation flow rate. As a result, it isrevealed that the lost time could be shortened by the method using conflictpoint analysis and an accurate acquisition of the saturation flow rate is very
important for the proper lost time calculation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Lost time in signal control is a period which is not used effectively forincoming traffic flow at an intersection. When we design signal phases, weneed to insert yellow signal to stop vehicle flow from one direction and all
red (= red for all direction) signal to clear up running vehicles from anintersection before the next signal phase starts and vehicles from a different
direction enter the intersection. Here, all red time is not used additional
incoming traffic, so it is called as “clearance loss”. At the next signal phase,
vehicles can not start at the exact moment of the beginning of green signal
but start a little bit later, and the flow rate increases gradually to thesaturation flow rate. This period when the capacity is partially used is called
as “starting loss”. And, lost time is the summation of these two losses.
To prevent traffic accidents like head-on collision in an intersection, it
is very important to secure enough all red time. However at the same time,to set a too long all red time leads to inefficiency and may sometimes cause
traffic congestion. Therefore, to evaluate all red time and to set it properly isa very important issue.
Furthermore, in signal control theory, lost time is an important factor
to determine the cycle time of the signal. And in congested situation, cycle
time influences delay at a signalized intersection. Therefore, an appropriate
evaluation of lost time is important in this aspect, too.
In Japan, all red time is determined by the distance between stop lines
divided by vehicle running speed. This method is quite simple, but not bad
if the last vehicle is a go-straight vehicle. However, vehicles go different
directions at an intersection and right-turn vehicle can often be the last one
in normal 2-phase signalized intersections. In such a case, this method does745

October 2008, Beijing, China

not have valid reasons to calculate all red time. We need a more accurate
and reliable method.
In this study, we pick up some intersections whose signal phase ends
with right-turn vehicles and make observations. Based on this, we examine
the feasibility of a different method to calculate the all red time in suchintersections. And after this, we calculate an accurate lost time focusing on
the signal phase with right-turn vehicles.
2. THEORITICAL REVIEW
2.1

Method to calculate all red time

There are two major methods to calculate all red time in the world.
One is used in Japan and the United States, calculated by the following
equation.
W
(1)
AR �
V
where, AR: all red time (sec), W: distance between stop lines (m), and
V: vehicle running speed (m/s)
The other is used in Germany, which employs an idea of “conflictpoint”. In this method, all the possible intersecting points (= conflict points)
of vehicle trajectories are considered between the target phase and the next
phase, and the time difference of the last vehicle and the next first vehicle iscalculated as follows.
AR � t r � t e(2)
where, tr: travel time for the distance “from the stop line to the conflictpoint plus vehicle length” by the last vehicle (sec), te: travel time for the
distance “from the stop line to the conflict point” by the next first vehicle(sec)
Figure 1 shows the concept of this method. To avoid a collision in theintersection, Equation (2) is needed.

��vehicle length����������
conflictpoint

next vehicletrtetarget
phase
����
���
next
phase
last vehicle

Figure 1: Conflict point by consecutive 2 vehicles

746

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

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2.2 Method to calculate lost time
In the conventional signal control theory, lost time is calculated by thefollowing equation.
n

L � � (Y j � AR j ) � n(3)jwhere, L: lost time (sec), Y: yellow time (sec), AR: all red time (sec),
n: number of signal phase changeThis means that lost time can be calculated just by the summation ofyellow and all red time basically. The reason of this idea is that yellow time
is used as a part of effective green time and we assume it is approximatedalmost equal to the starting loss time. Figure 2 shows this idea.
cumulative����� flow
clearanceloss��������
effective
green
�����
starting
loss
����

����
lost
time

��
time

red
�

green
�

yellowall��
red�

Figure 2: Conventional method to calculate lost time
However, this assumption that starting loss and effectively usedyellow is the same is not guaranteed in the actual vehicle movements. And,if we focus on the right-turn vehicle movements at the timing of signal
phase change, it can vary depending on the signal phase patterns as shownin Table 1. Here, right-turn vehicles have to make turning during absence of
oncoming traffic in “normal green”, but they can do it freely in “exclusive
green”. These different vehicle movements should be considered in lost time
calculation.
Table 1: Differences of right-turn vehicles by signal phase patterns

Signal phase patternA) normal green onlyB) normal green + exclusive
greenC) exclusive green only

Starting point
inside intersection
inside intersection

Starting timing
start of yellow
start of right arrowstop line

start of right arrow

3. FIELD OBSERVATION

To evaluate the validity of the current all red time and lost time based on
actual vehicle movement data, we conducted field observation survey using

Traffic Flow Analysis for an Appropriate Evaluation of Lost Time in Signal Control

747

October 2008, Beijing, China

video camera at three intersections considering different types of right-turn
movements. Figure 3 shows an example of the recorded image at theintersection C.

Figure 3: An example of observed intersection
3.1 Intersection A (normal green only)This intersection has 1 lane (for one side) roads for both directions.
The speed limit is 40km/h. Table 2 shows the signal steps of thisintersection. Vehicles can make right-turn during step 1 and 4.
�����

Table 2: Signal steps at intersection A���traffic
flow
duration
(sec)
����

�

�

�
yellow

��
all
red

�

�

��

�

�

�

�

� all
��
yellow
red
��

�

�

�

�

�
��
yellow
all
red
��

�

�

cycle length: 90 sec
������90�
(solid arrow: vehicle flow, dotted arrow: pedestrian flow)������������������������������

3.2 Intersection B (normal green + exclusive green)This intersection has 3 lanes (for one side) road for one direction and2 lanes (for one side) road for the other. The speed limit is 60 km/h for theformer and 40 km/h for the latter. Table 3 shows the signal steps of thisintersection. Vehicles can make right-turn during step 1-3 and 4-6.
�����

trafficflow���duration
(sec)
����

Table 3 Signal steps at intersection B��yellow
�

��

�

��

�

�

yellow
�

��
all
red

�

�

�

�

�

yellow
�

��

�

�

��

yellow
� all
��
red

��

�

�

cycle
length: 180 sec
������180�������������������������������
(solid arrow: vehicle flow, dotted arrow: pedestrian flow)

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

3.3 Intersection C (exclusive green only)This intersection has 5 lanes (for one side) road for one direction and4 lanes (for one side) road for the other. The speed limit is 60 km/h for theformer and 40 km/h for the latter. Table 4 shows the signal steps of thisintersection. Vehicles can make right-turn during step 3-5 and 10.
Table � Signal steps at intersection C
����
�
���
approach 1������
approach 3������

�

���

�

�

�

��� ��� ���

�

�

�

�

��

��

���

approach 2������

������approach 4������

������traffic
flow
���

��

yellow�

yellowred� all��

yellow�

yellow
� all
��
red

�

duration
����
(sec)
7����
o’clock / �����
8 o’clock������
green
�

�

����

yellow
�

�

���

�

�

�����

�

����

�

�

cycle length (7 o’clock /8 o’clock): 126/144 sec������7��/8�����126�/144�

red�

(solid arrow: vehicle flow, dotted arrow: pedestrian flow)������������������������������

4. EVALUATION OF ALL RED
4.1 Calculation of all red

All red time in these intersections is set by the conventional Japanesemethod. Here, we applied conflict point method to calculate all red time
based on the observed vehicle movement data. To apply this method,
Equation (2) is a little bit modified, that is,AR � t r 85 � t e15(4)where, tr85: 85 percentile value of travel time for the distance “fromthe stop line to the conflict point plus vehicle length” by the last vehicle(sec), te15: 15 percentile value of travel time for the distance “from the stop
line to the conflict point” by the next first vehicle (sec)
The reason why we need this modification is, to use actual vehicle
movement data, the values of tr and te are not identical but have some
distribution among observed samples, therefore we decided to use “safer”
values. The result of the calculation is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: All red calculated by different methods
intersection A
intersection B
intersection C

step 3step 6
step 5step 10
step 7

Current setting
2
2
3
3
3

Traffic Flow Analysis for an Appropriate Evaluation of Lost Time in Signal Control(unit: sec)
Conflict point method
3.03
7.64
3.29
2.16
2.85

749

October 2008, Beijing, China

4.2 Discussion

First, in the intersection A, the result shows that longer all red time areneeded. By checking from the recorded video, the last vehicles were rightturn ones for both cases of step 3 and step 6. Their turning movements wereinterrupted by oncoming vehicles or pedestrians, and it seemed to require
longer all red times. We may need further data cleansing or sample
investigation to get more reliable result.
As for the intersection B, the calculation result of all red time from theconflict point method becomes almost same or shorter as the current setting.
This value was calculated from the case that a right-turn vehicle is the last
one of the phase. If we calculate all red using the go-straight vehicle as thelast one, the values become 5.07 (sec) and 4.05 (sec) for both cases. It
means that all red time can be shortened by the flow direction based conflictpoint method.
In the intersection C, we calculated all red for step 7 only due to thedata limitation. Figure 4 shows the conflict points at this step. There are 7
possible conflict points in this step, but there were very few data for point 6
and an enough margin for point 7, therefore we used point 1 to 5 to calculate
the all red time. As a result, we derived a little bit shorter all red time thanthe current one.
approach 1�����1

�
�
�
�

�

�

�
�
approach
�4
�
�
4

��
�

�
�
�
�
approach
2
�
2

�

�
� ���

� ��
�
�
�
�
approach 3�����3Figure 4: Conflict points at step 7 in intersection C
By the way, we used 85 percentile and 15 percentile value for the
calculation to consider safety, but if we use the average value, all red time
become 1.21 (sec) in the case of the intersection C. It means that all red time
calculation greatly depends on how much we care about safety
5. EVALUATION OF LOST TIME

Using the observed data at the intersection C, we calculated lost time of thephase for right-turn vehicles during step 3 to 5, which is the summation ofstarting loss and clearance loss. The result is shown in Table 6.

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New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Table 6: Lost time for step 3 - 5 at intersection C
Starting loss
-0.40

Clearance loss
3.27

(unit: sec)
Lost time
2.87

5.1 Starting loss

Starting loss is calculated as follows. First, cycles which include
longer time headway than 4 (sec) and less passing vehicles than 6 are
eliminated from the analysis so that we can capture saturated flow situations.
Then, a regression line is drawn using 2nd to 6th vehicle’s passing time, andthe starting loss is derived by the difference between the green starting time
and the intersecting point of this line to x-axis. The result was a negativevalue (-0.40 sec), which may because vehicles were well prepared to startwhen the green signal began as there was yellow signal just before it.
5.2 Clearance loss

Clearance loss is calculated by the subtraction of the effectively used
time from the summation of yellow (2 sec) and all red (3 sec). Here,effectively used time is derived by the average of the passing time of the lastvehicle after yellow signal begins, which was 1.73 (sec). Therefore,clearance loss was 3.27 (sec).
5.3 Lost timeTaking the above together, the lost time based on the observed vehicle
movement data was 2.87 (sec). This is shorter than the one set by theconventional method (Equation (3)), that is, 2 + 3 - 1 = 4 (sec). It means thatthe conventional method may estimate the lost time too much.
6. CONCLUSION

In signal control theory, lost time is a very important factor which affects
the efficiency of the signal control and may cause delay in travel. This study
showed a possibility to improve the accuracy of the lost time calculation
depending on the signal phase patterns using observed vehicle movement
data. However, the results shown here are based on a limited number of dataand not all flow pattern combinations are covered. For example, thesaturation flow rate used in calculating the starting loss is very sensitive tothe history of vehicles’ passing time. We need further data accumulation
and analyses to ensure the reliability of this method.
REFERENCES

Road and Transportation Research Association � Guidelines for Traffic
Signal RiLSA�2003

Traffic Flow Analysis for an Appropriate Evaluation of Lost Time in Signal Control751

October 2008, Beijing, China

752

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURALCONCRETE WITH DEFECTS
AND DAMAGES
KOICHI MAEKAWA and KOHEI NAGAI
Department of Civil Enginering, The University of TokyoˈJapanmaekawa@concrete.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp,
nagai@concrete.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
ABSTRACT
Coupled analysis of mass transport in concrete and damage
mechanics with cracking is presented for structural safety assessment under
combined severe loads and environments. Multi-scale modeling of micropore formation and moisture transport with solved ions are linked to predictthe concrete deformation and steel corrosion. Multi-chemo physicalsimulation system and nonlinear dynamic mechanics were combined
together in time and space domains with mutual data communication. Thissystem was verified under static, dynamic and fatigue loads, and has been
applied to safety and serviceability assessment of existing infrastructuressubjected to severe damages caused by drying, autogenous shrinkage, steel
corrosion and ASR.
1. INTRODUCTION
Life-cycle performance of urban infrastructures are being required andappropriate design methods for both materials and structures are sought inseveral industrial societies (Baroghel-Bouny 2006). Currently, needs toverify remaining functionality of damaged existing facilities is rising for
urban safety. To meet these challenges, keenly expected is a assessment
system to deal with structural serviceability and safety under specified loads
and ambient conditions.
In this paper, the authors propose an integrated platform of solidmechanics and thermo-hydro dynamics of structural concrete with multiscales of referential control volume on which chemo-physical events
develop with mutual correlation as shown in Figure 1 (Maekawa et al. 2003,
2001, 1999, Asamoto et al. 2006). The space-averaged constitutive model isbasically built with regard to cracking in RC elements, and the thermohydro state variables are overlaid for multi-scale and multi-chemo
mechanical modeling as summarized in Figure 1. Recent application of themulti-scale approach to practical problems is also introduced, and the
direction of future development is discussed regarding an integrated
knowledge-base of structural concrete.

753

October 2008, Beijing, China
DuCOM
thermo-hygrosystem
Multi-component
hydration heat modelMulti-scale constitutive model

Cement Paste

Outer product
Inner product�cp, �cp�cp =f(�cp)

Unhydratedcore

�r=�r(�r)rroparticleradius

�m
� max

Mean
separation

Interparticle spaceamong gel grains

Moisture transfer andequilibrium model
10-5~6m

Vapor transport

Liquid transport

Ee
Ec

Cc

k slL

CgL

k slS

C gS

Solidifying
cluster of
cementpasteki

�0=Vag�ag+Vcp�cp

Representative
CSH grain

Matrix micro
pore structuregelMicrostructure atmatured age

Time�ag, �ag
�ag=�ag/3Kag

Concrete

Outer products
density at r

Microstructure at
an early age

Aggregate�0, �0�0=Vag� ag+Vcp�cp

Capillaries, gel, and interlayer
dr

Vag
Vcp

Microstructuredevelopment model

Cement paste model based onsolidification theory

Concrete model(Two-phase material)dV/d log r

Condensed
water

Trapped waterin inkbottle
pores

rc

log r

Inside gel grain

Number of cluster is basedon hydration degree

Instantaneous
stiffness

Ee

Capillary water
10-7~10-6m

EcCc

Gel water L
3.0x10-9~10-7m

kslL

CgL

Gel water S
10-9~3.0x10-9m

kslS

CgS

Interlayer water
10-10mki

Micro-pores

Seepage of water

Ee, Ec, C c, CgL, CgS, kslL, kslS, ki :function of thermo-dynamics states(hydration, saturation, Temperature etc)

thermo-hydro physical model

Mechanism of timedependency is assumed
to be seepage of water.

Moisture & Free shrinkage

Micro-structure,
Moisture equilibrium,
Capillary tension and
Gel disjoining pressure

drMoisture state

micro-structure

hydration

Figure 1: Coupling of thermo-hydro dynamics and damage mechanics forlife cycle assessment of structures
2. MULTI-DIRECTIONAL CRACK MECHANICS (meter-scale)
For the largest scale modeling of structural concrete, the smeared crack(Collins and Vecchio 1982) and active crack approach (Maekawa et al. 2001,
2003), which has been applied for seismic analyses, is also applied for
multi-directional crack kinematics and its interaction. Meso-scale
mechanical states are explicitly included in the form of constitutive models(Figure 2). The stress carrying mechanisms are composed ofcompression/tension parallel and normal to cracks and shear transfer. By theactive crack method, the primary cracking of governing nonlinearity ofstructural concrete element is identified if some cracks intersect nonorthogonally. Here, path-dependent parameters are renewed only along theactive crack in each load step of time.

754

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31
Reinforcement

C2

Range of crack 2R
C4
an
ge
of
cr
� �
2�
ac
k4

Mean stress of steel

2�

Averaged response ofsteel in concrete�Crack 3

Mean strain of steel

Local stress of steel�Crack 4

C1

Crack 1

1st coordinate

C2

C3

2st coordin

C4

Based upon maximum four way independent direction
��

Local strain of concrete1
��(x, y)dvVV� ������
��

Local stress1� �(x, y)dv
VV

Local stress

Local strain

Mean shear strain

LOCAL RESPONSE

Yield plateau jump!

Straindistribution

Comp. strain

MEAN RESPONSE��

1� �(x, y)dv
VV1
� � ��(x, y)dv
VV

Local stress

Local strain

Strain1
distribution
��

V �v

�(x,y) dv

Plastic zone

Stress distribution

Mean normal strain in x-dir.

Crack width1
�(x,y)dv
V �v

Stress distribution

Shear stresstransferred
1.0

Stress distribution

1.0

��

StraindistributionComp.
strengthComp. strength
reduction

Shear slip along a crack

Average tensile strainComp.
strength
reduction

Shear stresstransferred

Crack location
Mean stress Damage zone

Stress distribution

Local strain

Multi-system

X

Crack 2

RC

Crackedconcrete

C1

Local
response

Crack location
Mean strain Yield level
Mean stressRange of crack 1

Ra
C3
ng
eo
fc
ra c
k

3

Local strain of steel

Local stress

Straindistribution

Local strain

Plastic zone

Figure 2: In-plane constitutive model with multi-directional cracking
3. THERMO-HYDRO MODELING (mico-nano meter scale)
Volumetric change caused by temperature and long-term moistureequilibrium in micro-pores are associated with cracking and corresponding
structural serviceability, and corrosion of reinforcement has much to do with
migration of chemicals through micro-pores. Thus, the coupled system asshown in Figure 3 was proposed (Maekawa et al. 2003, 1999) to simulate
the entire thermo-mechanical states of constituent material and structures,
and a multi-scale analytical platform named as DuCOM (durability model
for concrete) was used. Micro-pore geometry and spaces are idealized bystatically formulated pore distribution and internal moisture balance issimultaneously solved with mass conservation requirement. The moisturemigration and diffusivity are computed based on the micro-pore size
distribution and the space of condensed water channel as shown in Figure 1
and Figure 3.
Chloride ion migration and other chemical reactions such ascarbonation and calcium leaching are overlaid on this system (Ishida et al.
2000, Nakarai et al. 2005). The conductivity and diffusion characteristics formass transport are calculated based upon numerically formed micro-pore
structures. The computation of multi-chemo-physical events is carried out
by means of the sequential processing with closed-loop predictor-corrector
method (Figure 3). Concrete shrinkage associated with microclimate in C-SH gel and capillary pores is linked with the macroscopic constitutive modelwith regard to micro-pore and disjoining pressures originated from Van delWaals and Coulomb forces (Figure 1). Micro-corrosion rate is also
computed by simulating migration of O2-CO2 gas and chloride ion, and theeffect of corrosion is integrated in the structural analysis (Toongoenthong etal. 2005). These thermo-dynamic state variables are incorporated into theconstitutive modeling and simultaneously solved. Then, we have

Safety Assessment of Structural Concrete with Defects and Damages755

October 2008, Beijing, China

approximately 230 simultaneous equations to be solved numerically forchemo-physical and mechanical behaviors of different scales (Ishida et al.
2004, 2000).

yes

Next
IterationnoSize, shape, mix proportions,
initial and boundary conditions

Conservation
laws satisfied ?

Increment time, continue

START

Governing
equations�S (� i )
� divJ i (� i , �� i ) � Qi (� i ) � 0
�tHydration
computation

Microstructure
computation

Pore pressure
computation

Temperature,
hydration level ofeach component

Bi-modal porosity
distribution,interlayer porosity

Pore pressures,
RH and moisture
distribution

Chrome Dissolution
model

Calcium leachingmodel

Corrosion model

Chrome dissolved
And equilibrium

Ca(OH)2 dissolved
And equilibrium

Corrosion rate,
amount of O 2
consumption

Chloridetransport andequilibrium

Carbon dioxidetransport andequilibrium

Dissolved andbound chloride
concentration

Gas and dissolved
CO 2 concentration

Dissolved Oxygen
transport andequilibrium

Ion equilibrium
model

Gas and dissolved
O2 concentration

pH in pore water

Degree of freedom: temperature, pore liquid pressure, concentrations offree chloride, carbon dioxide, oxide, calcium, chrome

Figure 3: Sequential computation of chemo-physical events
4. DAMAGE MECHANICS WITH CHEMO- PHYSICS AND
SEFETY ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGED STRUCTURES
Cracking is influential in mass transport of gases and dissolved ions. These
cracks through which ion substances can easily migrate are mutually linked
with thermo-hydro dynamic analysis by the hierarchy type of multi-scalemodeling as shown in Figure 1. The corroded steel produces volumetric
expansion and results in internal self-equilibrated stress, which may lead to
additional cracking around reinforcing bars. Figure 4 illustrates the way toamalgamate the damage mechanics and volume expansion of generated
corrosion gels. The corrosion gel product formation is considered in theconstitutive modeling of reinforcement in the transverse direction. The noncorroded mother steel and the corroded clusters with different mechanicalproperties are treated as a fictitious aging material of varying volumetricstiffness and expansion according to the magnitude of corrosion. This
growing steel is embedded in each finite element similar to smeared crack
approach as well.
When the corrosion cracking develops over the beam, shear safety
performance differs from the non-damaged reference case (Sato et al. 2003).
Figure 5 shows load-displacement relations for RC non-damaged reference
and corroded specimens which was submerged into a sodium pond foraccelerated corrosion. Here produced was uniformly distributed corrosion
along the whole longitudinal steel of 2.1% as the mass loss. Main
reinforcing bars were bent up 90 degree inside the anchorage zone, andsatisfactory anchorage capacity is expected. The stiffness of the member ismuch reduced but the capacity is a bit increased. The macroscopic bond loss
in the shear span leads to retarded propagation of diagonal shear cracking
and may elevate the shear capacity. Computation can capture this property.

756

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Superposition of concrete and reinforcement stressesRC� ijRC � � ijconcrete �� kl � � � ijsteel �� kl �

reinforcement

concrete

Concrete Constitutive Law (Tension)
average tensile stress

Constitutive Law for Steel in Longitudinalmean steel stresslocal response��

average steel responsein concretemean steel strain

average tensile strain
Concrete Constitutive Law (Shear)shear stresstransferred

Constitutive Law of Steel in Transverse
corroded steel stress“Newly Added”

�
�

0
�

accumulated corrosion mass loss
is computed
DuCOM
thermo-dynamic oriented system

s

O2

m
as

�>
>

lo
s

s

pEc� s , freemean shear strain� p � � xx �� xx � ���� ijsteel � � p � � yy �� yy , � ��

CO 2

Cl�

cr
ea

se

Concrete Constitutive Law (Comp.)
Comp. stress

In

Ionic
current

1/2O 2+H2 O+2e- �2OH -Fe�Fe2++2e-Anodep � � s , free

�1 � � �� � 1�� � 1

� s, free �Comp. strain

Element strain

Electric
current

Cathode(by Maekawa, Chaube, Kishi,
Ishida)Figure 4: Simulation of corrosion of r/f bars and structural performanceassessment
Experiment Failure Crack Pattern

80
70

Load (kN)

60
50

Analysis Failure Crack Pattern40

analysis30
20experiment

10
0

0

2

4

6

8

10

O2

12

Cl�

Ionic
current70

1/2O2+H2 O+2e-�2OH-

Fe�Fe2++2e-

Anode

60
Load (kN)

CO 2Electric
current

Cathode(by Maekawa, Chaube, Kishi, Ishida)

5040

Experiment Failure Crack Patternanalysis30
20experiment

10

Analysis Failure Crack Pattern

0
0

2

4

6

8

10

mid span deflection (mm)1214Figure 5: Beam with inherent crack-like defect in the anchorage zone
Figure 6 shows the defect built-in RC members subjected to combined
flexure and shear (Chijiwa 2006). This is a mock-up of corrosion cracks,and used for verification of the coupled mechanistic and thermo-dynamic
analysis. It can be seen that the quasi-ambient induced damages in theanchorage zone are much severe for structural strength. Unlike the preinduced damages inside the shear span, a distinct crack slip occurs and thetied arch mechanism is hard to appear if the damage is limited in the narrowanchorage zone. The damage concentrates between the tip of the quasiambient induced damages and the loading point, and the diagonal crack
width becomes remarkably wide. Larger crack widths with dramatically

Safety Assessment of Structural Concrete with Defects and Damages757

October 2008, Beijing, China

rotating axes of principal stresses, which are rare in non-damaged ones but
frequent for structural concrete including corrosion cracking, must be
considered for structures subjected to combined mechanical andenvironmental actions (Chijiwa 2006).

Figure 6: Simulation of partially damaged beam along the main
reinforcement
Figure 7 shows the fatigue life simulation of RC members under highcycle shear (Maekawa et al. 2006b). If the pre-corrosion crack develops
around the anchorage zone of the web reinforced beam, the fatigue life istremendously degraded even though the static capacity is almost the same asthat of the non-damaged one. On the contrary, the pre-corroded cracking
inside the shear span brings much prolonged fatigue life to non-web
reinforced members due to the loss of macroscopic bond. The corroded
cracks along main reinforcement results in arch-action formed between the
supports and the loading point against shear. This fact was also
experimentally verified in use of actually damaged RC slabs due to alkaliaggregate reaction.
The coupled analysis can be applied to RC slabs subjected to travelingwheel-type loads as shown in Figure 8 (Maekawa et al. 2006a). Bridge deckslabs are usually utilized under heavy traffic loads with high repetition of
traffic passage. Furthermore, moisture and pre-induced cracking by drying
and settlement are known to tremendously reduce the fatigue life. The fixed
point load produces the punching shear failure of conical planes, but themoving load passages bring about highly anisotropic shear failure which
extends to the transverse direction of slabs (Figure 8). As Maeda et al.
(1984) and Perdikaris et al. (1988) experimentally clarified, the moving
fatigue loads greatly deteriorates the fatigue life (nearly 2-order ofrepetition). The coupled full 3D analysis can successfully reproduce theshortened fatigue life and failure mode reasonably.

758

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

�����

�����

at 1,000th cycle

Crack width 0.5 mm anchorage����������������

�����
����

�������������������������

����

����

at 20,000th cycle

at 100th cycle������������
���������
������

�����

No crack with stirrups

0.5 mm crack at anchorage

�����

�����

�����

������������������

������ �����

�����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
�

�����
�����

��� ������

������ ��������� ��� ��������� ������� ��������

�����
�����
���������
����������������

����
�

�

��

���

����

�����

������ �����

�

�

��

��

��

�����������������

�����

Figure 7: Simulated shear capacity and cracking of corrosion beam under
fatigue loads
for Cold Region)

Movingwheel-type
loading

Maximum principal strain profile(displacement x10)
under moving wheel-loads(photo given by
Dr. H. Mitamura
At Civil Engineering
Research Institutefor Cold Region)

Damage and corresponding deformation are
dispersed along the slab axis after many passages.
displacement x 100

Normalized amplitude�
fixed point cyclic shear by FE analysis

������Cyclic moving point shear
by FE analysis

���
���

moving experiment by Matsui, et al.
fixed pulsating by Perdikaris, et al.

�ottom face of the slab (upside down drawing)

�

�

�

and Perdikalis, et al.

��

Number of cycles and passages (log N)

Figure 8: Failure mode of RC slab under traveling wheel-type loads andcomputed life
Figure 9 is the recent example of application to the practical safetyassessment for a 100-years old railway bridge in Tokyo (Satoh et al. 2001).
Due to uneven settlement of the foundation, some initial damage remains in
the form of cracking and arch ribs were strengthened by additional RC arch
inside layer in the past. The seismic ground motion was applied to thenumerically aged structural concrete and the computed response was used
for safety and serviceability assessment in practice. The seismic remaining
performance was numerically investigated and the sustainable life with light
retrofit was judged.

Safety Assessment of Structural Concrete with Defects and Damages759

October 2008, Beijing, China
concrete
Asphalt

target area
Settlement of ground

Asphalt

Displacement(cm)���������������������
�����

concrete

���
���
����
����
����
����
�

��

���

���

���

���

���

���

���������������Elapsedtime (sec)���Figure 9: Safety assessment of 100 years-old railway bridges
5. NEW FIBER MATERIALS FOR STRENGTHNING
Fiber Reinforced Cementitious Composite (FRCC) is recently applied
widely to surface repair, strengthening and so on (Kunieda et al. 2004).
Although its superior performance is investigated under uniaxial loading
condition in static, cyclic and fatigue conditions, less attention has been paid
to behavior under multi directional cracking condition which may arise
when FRCC is used as structural member that exposed to complex stresscondition through the service life. An on-going attempt to predict the
behavior of cracked FRCC is reported here (Suryanto et al. 2008). High
Performance Fiber Reinforce Cementitious Composite (HPFECC), which iscategorized as a material that exhibits multiple cracks and strain hardening
under tension, is examined experimentally by bending test as shown in
Figure 10. Initial-crack was introduced by applying four-point bending test
(A-D). The specimen was then cut to readjust the orientation (20, 45, 70, 90deg) of the pre-cracks (E). Finally, a further bending test was applied (G).
The results showed a significant influence of pre-cracks, particularly due tothe orientation of the pre-cracks. In most cases (except for the 20 deg case),
the degradation of strength was evident, relative to the strength of the no
initial damage specimen. The initial-crack also significantly influences theinitial stiffness of the specimen. In general, a bi-directional cracking pattern
was observed as illustrated in Figure 10. The secondary crack (a subsequent
crack formation after the initial-crack) always formed somewhat orthogonal
to the initial-crack. The results bring concern that FRCC performance undermulti directional cracking should be evaluated fairly for long term
maintenance of concrete structure so that incorporation into computational
scheme presented in previous sections will be conducted in the near future.

760

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Figure 10: Bending test of HPFRCC with multi directional cracking
6. CONCLUSIONSLife span simulation system with multi-scale modeling presented in thisstudy predicts performance of structural concrete at arbitrary time during its
life, which is expected to contribute the safety assessment of infrastructure.
REFERENCES
Asamoto, S., Ishida, T., Maekawa, K. 2006. Time-dependent constitutive
model of solidifying concrete based on thermodynamic state ofmoisture in fine pores, Advanced Concrete Technology, 4(2), 301-323.
Baroghel-Bouny, V. 2006. Evaluation and prediction of reinforced concrete
durability by means of durability indicators. Part I: new performancebased approach, Concrete Durability and Service Life Planning,
Proceedings pro046, RILEM, 259-269.
Chijiwa, N. 2006. Time dependent simulation of reinforced concrete
subjected to coupled mechanistic and environ-mental actions, 6thInternational PhD Symposium in Civil Engineering, Zurich.
Collins, M. P. and Vecchio, F. 1982. The response of reinforced concrete toin-plane shear and normal stresses, University of Toronto.
Ishida, T., Maekawa, K., Soltani, M. 2004. Theoretically identified strong
coupling of carbonation rate and thermodynamic moisture state in
micropores of concrete, Advanced Concrete Technology, 2(2), 213222.
Ishida, T., Maekawa, K. 2000. An integrated computational system for
mass/energy generation, transport and mechanics of materials andstructures, Concrete Library of JSCE, 36, 129-144.
Kunieda, M., Rokugo, K. 2006. Recent progress on HPFRCC in Japan
Advanced Concrete Technology, 4(1), 19-33.
Maeda, Y. And Matsui, S. 1984. Fatigue of reinforced concrete slabs undertrucking wheel load, Proc. of JCI, 6, 221-224.

Safety Assessment of Structural Concrete with Defects and Damages

761

October 2008, Beijing, China

Maekawa, K., Gebreyouhannes, E., Mishima, T., An, X. 2006a. Threedimensional fatigue simulation of RC slabs under traveling wheel-type
loads, Advanced Concrete Technology, 4(2).
Maekawa, K., Toongoenthong, K., Gebreyouhannes, E., Kishi, K. 2006b.
Direct Path-Integral Scheme for Fatigue Simulation of Reinforced
Concrete in Shear, Advanced Concrete Technology, 4(1), 159-177.
Maekawa, K., Ishida, K., Kishi, T. 2003. Multi-scale modeling of concrete
performance - integrated material and structural mechanics -,Advanced Concrete Technology, 1(2), 91-126.
Maekawa, K., Pimanmas, A., Okamura, H. 2003. Nonlinear Mechanics ofReinforced Concrete, Spon Press, London.
Maekawa, K., Chaube, R. P., Kishi, T. 1999. Modeling of Concrete
Performance, Spon Press, London.
Nakarai, K., Ishida, T., Maekawa, K. 2006. Multi-scale physicochemical
modeling of soil-cementitious material interaction, Soils andFoundations, 46(5).
Perdikaris, P. C., Beim, S. R. 1988. RC bridge decks under pulsating andmoving load, J. of Structural Engineering, ASCE, 114(3), 591-607.
Satoh, Y. et al. 2003. Shear behavior of RC member with corroded shear
and longitudinal reinforcing steels, Proc. of the JCI, 25(1), 821-826.
Sogano, T. et al. 2001. Numerical analysis on uneven settlement and seismic
performance of Tokyo brick bridges, Structural Engineering Design,
No.17, JR-East, 96-109.
Suryanto, B., Nagai, K., Maekawa, K. 2008. A bi-directional cracking testof High Performance Fiber Reinforced Cementitious Composite, Proc.
of the JCI, 30(2),279-284.
Toongoenthong, K., Maekawa, K. 2005. Simulation of coupled corrosive
product formation, migration into crack and its propagation in
reinforced concrete sections, Advanced Concrete Technology, 3(2),253-265.

762

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in AsiaOIL
OIL SUPPLY
SUPPLY CHAIN
CHAIN SECURITY
SECURITY EVALUATIEVALUATION
ON AND
AND COUNTERMEASURESCOUNTERMEASURESGUANGYONG XU and QIDONG YONGGUANGYONG XU and QIDONG YONG
Dept. of Oil Application & Management, Logistic Engineering University,
Dept. of Oil Application & Management, Logistic Engineering University,
Chongqing 400016, China
Chongqing 400016, China
Xgy_7728@163.com
Xgy_7728@163.com
ABSTRACTABSTRACTPaper on the safety of the supply chain, based on systems engineering
Paper on the safety of the supply chain, based on systems engineering
principles, will focus on analyzing major factors and the establishment ofprinciples, will focus on analyzing major factors and the establishment ofindex system and evaluation criteria of the oil supply chain security
index system and evaluation criteria of the oil supply chain security
evaluation and give security measures of oil supply.
evaluation and give security measures of oil supply.
1. INTRODUCTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Oil (refined oil) supply chain refers to the organization and conduct of the
Oil (refined oil) supply chain refers to the organization and conduct of the
supply of fuels and fuel storage, transportation, the addition (or supply), andsupply of fuels and fuel storage, transportation, the addition (or supply), andso on. In the oil supply chain, such as storing, transporting, adding, and soso on. In the oil supply chain, such as storing, transporting, adding, and soon, we must ensure that the “chain” of security. Otherwise, the supply ofon, we must ensure that the “chain” of security. Otherwise, the supply offuels would be interrupted. Therefore, the evaluation and ensuring of fuelfuels would be interrupted. Therefore, the evaluation and ensuring of fuelsupply chain security is of great significance.
supply chain security is of great significance.
2. THE MAIN FACTORS IMPACTING OIL SUPPLY CHAIN
2. THE MAIN FACTORS IMPACTING OIL SUPPLY CHAIN
SECURITY
SECURITY
2.1 Fuels
2.1 Fuels
Oil itself from the risk of their own physical and chemical nature, such
Oil itself from the risk of their own physical and chemical nature, suchas a flammable characteristics encountered fire ignition source could result
as a flammable characteristics encountered fire ignition source could resultin fuel combustion; being strong volatile, it would not only result in highly
in fuel combustion; being strong volatile, it would not only result in highly
explosive environment and the formation of the environment pollution, but
explosive environment and the formation of the environment pollution, butalso could easily lead to the loss of oil quality and decreased quality; withalso could easily lead to the loss of oil quality and decreased quality; withstrong proliferation, it could easily lead to run, dripping, and leakage, whichstrong proliferation, it could easily lead to run, dripping, and leakage, which
not only reduces the number but also pollutes the environment, and is easy
not only reduces the number but also pollutes the environment, and is easy
to cause combustion and explosion accident; easy electrostatic accumulation
to cause combustion and explosion accident; easy electrostatic accumulation
may occur spark discharge, cause fire and explosion accident; being certain
may occur spark discharge, cause fire and explosion accident; being certain
toxic, it is easy to cause acute poisoning and chronic poisoning incidents. It
toxic, it is easy to cause acute poisoning and chronic poisoning incidents. It
is very dangerous because of these characteristics.
is very dangerous because of these characteristics.
2.2 Personnel
2.2 Personnel
Oil supply is both the target of management and the driving force
Oil supply is both the target of management and the driving force
during supplying. It is likely to be “risk factors” portability or persons
during supplying. It is likely to be “risk factors” portability or persons
stopping risk factors or illegal operations. Therefore, the personnel are thestopping risk factors or illegal operations. Therefore, the personnel are the763763

October 2008, Beijing, China

most complex factor and a key factor affecting safety. The effect primarily
lists in the following areas: security consciousness, knowledge level of work
style; body function; personal experience.
2.3 Equipment and facilities
Oil equipment and facilities includes the storage, transportation,
adding and quality testing equipment and facilities. All activities during oil
supply must rely on equipment and facilities and without equipment andfacilities, personnel could not complete oil supply task. However, its impact
on the safety of oil supply should not be overlooked, which exists mainly inthe following areas: the technical specifications of the equipment andfacilities; the degree deciding new or old; its own security protection
capability of equipment and facilities; whether the equipment and facilities
for the security protection are sound, appropriate, useful, convenient inmaintenance.
2.4 Management
Management means the various activities when people scientificallyorganize� command and coordinate according to certain principles in orderto achieve the intended target, which can not be achieved only through theirpersonal activities. The purpose of safety management is to coordinate andorganize the management factors such as people, fuel, equipment, etc, in the
supply environment and to avoid the occurrence of danger. Therefore,
whether the oil sectors at all levels establish regulations, whether they
implement management organizations, whether they strengthen legal
education, whether they define security responsibilities and whether they
implement the necessary security measures, organizational measures andtechnical measures will have an impact on oil security.
2.5 Environment
Environmental factors affecting the safety include the naturalenvironment such as meteorological, geological factors, man-made factors,
such as work and living environment and social conditions, such as social,folk, and social factors. Environmental factors not only affect the normal
function of the human body to play, but also induce the excitation of
insecurity. It is difficult to curb all the great forces of nature. Man-madeenvironment not only will cause staff make errors, but also expose thedanger of oil and cause a hidden danger to equipment and facilities, which
will affect fuel safety. Social factors are the social atmosphere, the resident
social conditions and the mental state of staff, which affected not only theemotional, but also may cause oil, fuel and equipment lost, and evenvandalism. The mental state of oil supply personnel will be affected byexternal staff and values view.

764

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

3. THE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN SECURITY EVALUATION
3.1 Comprehensive Assessment System of the oil supply chain security
statusComprehensive Assessment System is created such as the Table 1
according to the above mentioned factors affecting safety.
Human security awareness and responsibility is mainly used tomeasure cadres and staff safety awareness and compliance (Safety
regulations) and law-abiding, and other physical conditions. The status ofequipment and facilities is used mainly to value the safety or reliability ofthe situation. Material conditions are mainly used for evaluation of the riskof unsafe or harmful materials, such as flammable and explosive,
spontaneous combusting, toxic, corrosive and so on. The state of theenvironment is used mainly to judge security of the natural environment andthe operating environment. Management and training situation is usedmainly to judge the management working conditions of the safety system,
safety training, and safety precautions. Accident situation unit is usedmainly to value the security responsibility of the leadership and accident
hazard.
Table 1:Comprehensive assessment of the security situation

One indicators(Weight)

two indicators (weight)

grades

5

4

3

2

1

Security awareness (excellent, good, poor, very
poor)
Familiarity with the business (familiar with themore familiar, in general, poor, very poor)
Responsibility for

Abide by rules and regulations (very good,the safety awarenessgood, average, poor, poor)
Command or operational errors (no, sometimes,
more, more frequent)
Fatigue (no, sometimes, more, more frequent)
Physical quality (good, good, average, poor,
poor)
Equipment configuration status (excellent,good, poor, very poor)
Strength (excellent, good, poor, very poor)

Equipment(facilities) situation

Aging equipment (excellent, good, medium,aging, very aging)
Safety devices adverse conditions (excellent,good, poor, very poor)
Sound safety facilities (sound and more perfect,in general, does not sound bad)

Oil Supply Chain Security Evaluation and Countermeasures7650October 2008, Beijing, China
dangerous substances or harmful
Materials

substances(Very small, small, normal, large,
large)
Safety signs (dangerous is the whole point, themajority, and some, on behalf of points, none)
Fire (no fire danger point, a fire)State of theElectrostatic (for electrostatic device results:

environment

excellent, good, poor, very poor)
Lightning (Lightning processing device:
excellent, good, poor, very poor)
Flooding (flood water excellent, good, poor,
very poor)
to establish work safety assurance system (verygood, good, average, poor, poor)
Working to achieve Standardization of safe
operation (very good, good, average, poor,
poor)

Management andtraining situation

Carry out safety technology training (very good,
good, average, poor, poor)
Risk source identification (very good, good,average, poor, poor)
Significant risk source identification results(based on "no, four to one" five classes)
plans against major risk sources (excellent,good, poor, no plans)
three years without incident situation (in theevent of an accident, the annual deduction 1)

Accident situation

No accidents within the leadership (in the eventof an accident, each deduction 1)
That the event of an accident situation (without
incident, the general, to assess and heavy /large)

Familiarity withprofessionNote� very familiar with; � more familiar; � general; � not familiar with�knowing a little
Only one ticket can vote down and "0" point indicates in the accident.

Oil supply chain security assessment of the status-fifth of the standard
system of using subcontractors points, as shown in table 1. In addition,
another grading standard can be used in flammable places, as shown in
Table 2.

766

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

ICUS Report 31

Table 2 Grading standard in oil warehouse security degree assessment
sortfalling
short ofrequestHavingsevere bug

being up to themustard basically

being upto themustardHigh fatalness

0

1

4

8

Moderate fatalness

0

1

3

5

Low fatalness

0

1

2

3

3.2 Security grading
According to the division above, the calculated results can be divided
into the five systems. 5-point means the unit is on firm ground. 4-pointmeans the unit is safe comparatively. 3-point means the unit is on averageground. 2-point means the unit is danger comparatively. 1-point means theunit is deep in danger. 0-point means the accident will occur in the unit at
any moment. All above are shown in table 3.
Table 3 State expressed and arithmetic operators of moodpoints

5

4

3

2

1

0

V

IV

III

II

I

O

ķ

excellentgoodmediumpoor

Very poor

Accidentĸ

safe

dangeraccidentĹ

stableinstable

accidentĺ

excellent

Very poor

Accidentmood

Safe ingeneralStable ingeneralgood

averagemediummediumDanger ingeneralinstable ingeneralpoor

4. COUNTERMEASURES OF GUARANTEEING OIL SUPPLYCHAIN SECURITY
4.1 Establishment of sufficient oil reserves
The so-called oil reserves generally refers to petroleum material
accumulation under the relevant law standard, namely the crude oil and the
product that have been changed the primitive existence condition, moreoveris called as generally for the emergency oil reserves. In a sense, this kind of
emergency storage may also be regarded as the sum of social petroleum
stock that may momentarily put in the market. At present there are 11
countries or areas in the world that implement this kind of emergency oil
reserves by different ways. Oil reserve's basic function may be summarized
as: avoiding panic for short of petroleum and maintaining the petroleum
security; suppressing the rise in price and adjusting the market supply anddemand; Containing supply disruption and participating energy business;
Dealing with the thunderbolt and guaranteeing army oil used. Therefore,
establishing sufficient oil reserves is the prerequisite that can ensure the oil
supply chain security.

Oil Supply Chain Security Evaluation and Countermeasures

767

October 2008, Beijing, China

4.2 Guaranteeing oil transportation safety
The fuel oils transportation can link oil raises, storage and supplies. It
is the key tache in the oil supply chain. Therefore, we must strengthen oiltransportation supply effectively. First, we must complete the arduous oiltransportation task in the limited time. Once oil transportation supply comesapart, we would encounter a vicious circle that we could not follow step bystep just because one step did not follow up. Next, we must achieve theeffective oil transportation. Even if oil transport capacity is wonderful, you
may complete the transportation task very badly. That is because the quality
completing the transportation task is based on the validity of oil supply. In
order to carry on oil supply effectively in a short time, operating speed of oil
transportation system must speed up. But the enhancement of this kind musttake in the suitable place, the appropriate opportunity, and transporting theright amount fuel as a premise. This is the effective oil transportation.
4.3 Enhancement of oil safety control
In order to manage fuel safely, we must set down strict safety control
system and the post responsibility, develop the safety and skill training
education of the whole staff, carry on security heck, discover hidden danger
and carry on analysis, summary and reorganization. Thus we can prevent
important targets from catching fire, explosion and potential hazard.
Therefore, we must pay attention to unsafe factors in such aspects as
management, operation, service maintenance and so on. Thus we canprevent occurrence of safety incident.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported by the National Social Science Foundation ofChina under 07GJY078.
REFERENCES
YONG Qi-dong, 2005. Study on safety system and safety evaluation fortanker. Logistics Engineering University Transaction, vol 2,12-14
YONG Qi-dong, 2007. Study on manufacturing accidents and safety
evaluation. Logistics Engineering University Transaction, vol 8, 1315

768

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

Authors’ Index

AUTHORS’ INDEXA
Aziz, Zeeshan
Alberty, Chen
Albert P., Plans
Ahmed, Ansary Mehedi
Akiyuki, Kawasaki
Akimasa, Sumi
B
Bin, Zhang
C
Chunlin, Liu
Crawford Ra., John
Cao, Zheng
Changkun, Chen
Chengcheng, Gai
Chao, Zhang
Chao-Shun, Chang
DDavid, Palermo
Dushmanta, Dutta
Dongxue, Li
Dongshan, Cai
Daisuke, Sugimoto
Dissanayake, Dmdok
Dong Hee, Ko
E
Enhua, Wu

F
Fujio, Koyama
G
Golparvar-Fard, Mani
Guangyong, Xu
H
Hiroshi, Yokota
Hong, Huang
Haruo, Sawada
Hong, Huang

145
145
145
233, 239,
365, 657
269, 335
723

H
Hiroshi, Hayami
Hong, Chen
Hui, Zhang
Hongyong, Yuan
H., Kumagai
Hiroshi, Yokota
Hitoshi, Taguchi

377 I
Imtlaz Bnus, Afifa
Imtiaz A.B., Afifa
189, 201 Izumi, Nagatani
189 Itsuki, Noda
297 Israt, Jahan
435
439 J
495 Jae-hyun, Shim
603 Jae-hak, Chung
Jin, Pan
Jorgen, Johansson
201 Jing, Zhang
287 Jianfeng, Li
457 Jianghong, Wu
495 Jun, Yan
641 Jiangfeng, Yang
671 Jiangnan, Qiu
699 Jianguo, DaoK
405 Kimiro, Meguro
Kaoser A. R
Kazuo, Konagai
355 Kai, Bao
Kui, Zheng
Kanok-Nukulchai, Worsak
145 Kai-Lin, Hsu
763 Kuo-Hung, Tseng
Koichi, Maekawa
Koheii, Naga
135
215
251, 715
317, 345

317
345
405
427, 439,
487
591
621
715
233
239
251
421
657
155
155
223
259
279
377
415
487
549
581
621
73, 105,
115, 269,
335, 355
123
259
405
467
475
603
613
753
753

L
Li, Qingshui
Liu, Mao
Lili, Zheng
Ligang, Du
Lijun, Zhang
M
Masamitsu, Tamura
Mikiko, Ishikawa
M., Iwanami
Murshed, Ahmed
Mahmoud, Bady
Mu, Qing
M.V., Khiem
Miho, Ohara
Mao, Liu
Michael, Henry
Masamitsu, Suzuki
Masanori, Ito
Mao, Liu
Mikio, Koshihara
Mari, Sato
Masao, Kuwahara
N
Navaratnarajah, Sathiparan
Noor M. A.
Naoki, YahagiN., Ahmed
O
Osamu, Ukai
P
Paola, Mayorca
Peña-Mora, Feniosky
Peter, Rogers
Pan, Li
P.J., Baruah
R
Richard L, Jaehne
Rubel, Das
Rui, Yang
Ryozo, Ooka
Raquib, Ahsan
Ryo, SuzukiR
297 Reiko, Kuwano
297 Ryohji, Ohba
405 Reja M.D., Yousuf
449
575 S
Sahamitmongkok, RaktipongS., Takahashi
19 Saumil J., Mehta
39 Shinsuke, Kato
135 Sutra, Dhar Ashutosh
165 Shifei, Shen
215 Samuel, Adeloju
297 Srikantha, Herath317 Sanae, Miyazaki
355 Syed Zillur, Rahman
457 Shunsuke, Soeda
539 Shifei, Shen
555 Shinsuke, Kato
555 Shinji, Tanaka
565
631 T
709 Tomoya, Shibayama
745 Taketo, Uomoto
Toshibumi, SakataT., Matsubashi
105 Takeo, Tadono
123, 591, Tajima, Yoshimitsu
735
355 Tatiana, Torres
735 Takashi, Tsuchiyu
Tomohisa, Yamashita
Tingxin, Qin
647 Thanh Tam, Bui
Tomohisa, Yamashita
Taiping, Chang
105, 115 Takahiro, Endo
145 Takeshi, Ono
335
393 Q
715, 723 Quan, Shao
Qiyan, Zheng
Qiuyan, Zhong
49 Qidong, Yong
233
279
317, 345365
555641, 699,
709
647
657
95
135
145
215
239
279
287
335
355
365
421
449
647
745
11
57
69
135
183
259
269
345
421
449
475
647
689
715, 723
745
427
575
581
763

W
Weicheng, Fan
Wenguo, Weng
Waon-ho, Yi
Wataru, Takeuchi
Worakanchana, Kawin
Warnitchai, Pennung
Wendy, Wright
Wenguo, Weng
Wicaksana, Citra
Weiqui, Huang
Wen, Xue
Weiling, Jin
Wuditha Nuwan, Premadasa
Wei, Wang

1
1
155
183
183
183
287
393, 415,
427, 439
475
575
621
621
671
679

X
Xiaoyu, Tang
Xiaohui, Yao
Xiaoqing, Liu
Xuewei, Ji
Xueming, Shu
Xin, Ye

223
377
377
393
467, 487
581

Y
Yi, Liu
Yoshifumi, Yasuoka
Yoshiaki, Nakano
Yoshitaka, KatoYea Saen, Fang
Yoshito, Sawada
Yoichi, Kitsuta
Yutian, Wang
Yunfeng, Sun
Yi, Liu
Yingchun, Chen
Yafei, Zhou
Yingju, Zhang
Z
Zhi, Li1
318595, 539,
555
189
251
355
377
435
495
549
565
581
435