The Global Risks
Report 2022
17th Edition
INSIGHT REPORT

In partnership with Marsh McLennan, SK Group and Zurich Insurance GroupThe Global Risks Report 2022, 17th Edition, is published by theWorld Economic Forum.
The information in this report, or on which this report is based, hasbeen obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable
and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified andno representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as tothe accuracy or completeness of any information obtained fromthird parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide
current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions
and include any statement that does not directly relate to ahistorical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are notexhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate
in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge
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whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise
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ISBN: 978-2-940631-09-4
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The Global Risks
Report 2022
17th Edition

Strategic Partners
Marsh McLennan
SK Group
Zurich Insurance Group

Academic Advisers
National University of Singapore
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania

CONTENTS

Preface

5—6

Executive Summary

7—10

CHAPTER 1

Global Risks 2022:
Worlds Apart

including Global Risks Perception Survey
2021–2022 Results

11—29

CHAPTER 2

Disorderly Climate Transition

30—44

CHAPTER 3

Digital Dependencies andCyber Vulnerabilities

45—56

CHAPTER 4

Barriers to Migration

57—69

CHAPTER 5

Crowding and Competitionin Space

70—79

CHAPTER 6

Refreshing Resilience
Appendices

80—91
Appendix A: Description of Global Risks 2022
Appendix B: Executive Opinion Survey
National Risk Perceptions
Appendix C: Technical Notes: Global Risks
Perception Survey 2021–2022

Acknowledgements

92—112

113—116

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4

Preface
Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director

A divergent economic recovery from the crisis createdby the pandemic risks deepening global divisions at atime when societies and the international community
urgently need to collaborate to check COVID-19, heal
its scars and address compounding global risks.

and approaches within and between countries andthen examines the risks that could arise from suchtensions. This year’s report also highlights theimplications of these risks for individuals, governments
and businesses.

In some societies, rapid progress on vaccination, leaps
forward on digitalization and a return to pre-pandemic
growth rates herald better prospects for 2022 andbeyond. Others could be weighed down for years bystruggles to apply even initial vaccine doses, combat
digital divides and find new sources of economic
growth. Widening disparities within and between
countries will not only make it more difficult to control
COVID-19 and its variants, but will also risk stalling, if
not reversing, joint action against shared threats thatthe world cannot afford to overlook.

The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS),
which has underpinned the report since 2006,
was refreshed this year to gather new and broader
insights from nearly 1,000 global experts and leaders
who responded. The 2021-2022 GRPS includes thefollowing sections:

Last year’s edition of the Global Risks Report warnedof potential knock-on economic risks that are now
clear and present dangers. Supply chain disruptions,inflation, debt, labour market gaps, protectionism andeducational disparities are moving the world economy
into choppy waters that both rapidly and slowly
recovering countries alike will need to navigate torestore social cohesion, boost employment and thrive.
These difficulties are impeding the visibility of emerging
challenges, which include climate transition disorder,
increased cyber vulnerabilities, greater barriers tointernational mobility, and crowding and competitionin space.

– COVID-19 Hindsight invites respondents toopine on the reverberations of the crisis, allowing
comparability with the results from the previous year.
– Future Outlook captures respondent sentiment,
informing our analysis of how individual contexts
may influence global risk perceptions andaffectmitigation.
– Horizon captures respondents’ perceived trajectoryand sense of urgency of global risks, informing ouranalysis of choices and trade-offs that decisionmakers may face.
– Severity ranks potential damage while Effects
asks respondents to consider cascading
impacts in conjunction with the severity of therisk itself.

Restoring trust and fostering cooperation within
and between countries will be crucial to addressingthese challenges and preventing the world from drifting
further apart.

– International Mitigation asks respondents toassess international efforts in 15 global governanceareas to identify achievements and areas ofopportunity for global action and cooperation.

The 17th edition of the Global Risks Report identifies
tensions that will result from diverging trajectories– Open questions on risks, trends and warning
signs source expert knowledge.

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5

This year the Global Risks Report also draws on
the views of over 12,000 country-level leaders who
identified critical short-term risks to their 124 countries,
gathered through the World Economic Forum’s
Executive Opinion Survey. The areas highlighted inthese responses are likely to inform national decisionmaking and provide a perspective on how short-termrisk national priorities may compare with global risks
and perspectives.

The report also draws from and supports the World
Economic Forum’s platforms dedicated to catalysing
a new economy and society, accelerating climate
action for people and planet, leveraging Fourth
Industrial Revolution technologies, stewarding industry
transformations and enhancing global and regional
cooperation. These platforms and their stakeholders
use the insights from this report to shape their agendas
for tackling the world’s greatest challenges andembedding greater resilience and cooperation.

We are ever grateful to our partners in the report’s
development: Marsh McLennan, SK Group andZurich Insurance Group. We also thank our academic
partners: the National University of Singapore, theOxford Martin School at the University of Oxford andthe Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes
Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
This report continues to leverage the collective
intelligence of an expanding community of theworld’s foremost risk experts, convened by theWorld Economic Forum’s Global Risks Practice: the
Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Chief Risk
Officers Community and the Global Future Council
on Frontier Risks, as well as a series of consultations
with regional and thematic experts from the public andprivate sectors.

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6

Executive Summary

As 2022 begins, COVID-19 and its economic andsocietal consequences continue to pose a critical threat
to the world. Vaccine inequality and a resultant uneveneconomic recovery risk compounding social fracturesand geopolitical tensions. In the poorest 52 countries—
home to 20% of the world’s people—only 6% of the
population had been vaccinated at the time of writing. By
2024, developing economies (excluding China) will havefallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP
growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed
it by 0.9%—widening the global income gap.
The resulting global divergence will create tensions—
within and across borders—that risk worsening the
pandemic’s cascading impacts and complicating thecoordination needed to tackle common challenges
including strengthening climate action, enhancing digital
safety, restoring livelihoods and societal cohesion andmanaging competition in space.
The Global Risks Report 2022 presents the results of thelatest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), followedby an analysis of key risks emanating from current
economic, societal, environmental and technologicaltensions. The report concludes with reflections on
enhancing resilience, drawing from the lessons of the last
two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The key findingsof the survey and the analysis are summarized below.

Global risks perceptions highlightsocietal and environmental concerns
Asked to take a view of the past two years,
respondents to the GRPS perceive societal risks—in
the form of “social cohesion erosion”, “livelihood crises”
and “mental health deterioration”—as those that haveworsened the most since the pandemic began. Only
16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about

the outlook for the world, and just 11% believe theglobal recovery will accelerate. Most respondents
instead expect the next three years to be characterizedby either consistent volatility and multiple surprises or
fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners
and losers.
For the next five years, respondents again signal
societal and environmental risks as the mostconcerning. However, over a 10-year horizon,
the health of the planet dominates concerns:
environmental risks are perceived to be the five mostcritical long-term threats to the world as well as themost potentially damaging to people and planet,with “climate action failure”, “extreme weather”, and“biodiversity loss” ranking as the top three most severerisks. Respondents also signalled “debt crises” and“geoeconomic confrontations” as among the most
severe risks over the next 10 years.
Technological risks—such as “digital inequality” and“cybersecurity failure”—are other critical short- andmedium-term threats to the world according to GRPS
respondents, but these fall back in the rankings
towards the long term and none appear among themost potentially severe, signalling a possible blind spotin risk perceptions.
The 2021-2022 GRPS included a question oninternational risk mitigation efforts. “Artificial
intelligence”, “space exploitation”, “cross-bordercyberattacks and misinformation” and “migration andrefugees” are the areas where most respondents
believe the current state of risk mitigation efforts fallshort of the challenge—that is, efforts are “not started”
or in “early development”. Meanwhile, for “tradefacilitation”, “international crime” and “weapons of mass
destruction”, large majorities perceived risk mitigation
efforts to be “established” or “effective”.

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REUTERS/HEO RAN

A divergent economic recovery
threatens collaboration on
global challenges
Economic challenges flowing from the pandemic
persist. The outlook remains weak: at the time ofwriting, the global economy was expected to be
2.3% smaller by 2024 than it would have been
without the pandemic. Rising commodity prices,
inflation and debt are emerging risks. Moreover, withanother spike in COVID-19 cases towards the endof 2021, the pandemic continues to stifle countries’
ability to facilitate a sustained recovery.
The economic fallout from the pandemic is compounding
with labour market imbalances, protectionism, andwidening digital, education and skills gaps that risk
splitting the world into divergent trajectories. In somecountries, rapid vaccine rollout, successful digitaltransformations and new growth opportunities could
mean a return to pre-pandemic trends in the short term
and the possibility of a more resilient outlook over alonger horizon. Yet many other countries will be heldback by low rates of vaccination, continued acutestress on health systems, digital divides and stagnant
job markets. These divergences will complicate theinternational collaboration needed to address theworsening impacts of climate change, manage migration
flows and combat dangerous cyber-risks.

Short-term domestic pressures will make it harder forgovernments to focus on long-term priorities and will
limit the political capital allocated to global concerns.
“Social cohesion erosion” is a top short-term threat in
31 countries—including Argentina, France, Germany,
Mexico and South Africa from the G20. Disparities thatwere already challenging societies are now expected towiden—51 million more people are projected to live in
extreme poverty compared to the pre-pandemic trend—at the risk of increasing polarization and resentment
within societies. At the same time, domestic pressuresrisk stronger national interest postures and worsening
fractures in the global economy that will come at theexpense of foreign aid and cooperation.

A disorderly climate transition will
exacerbate inequalities
Respondents to the GRPS rank “climate action failure”
as the number one long-term threat to the world andthe risk with potentially the most severe impacts overthe next decade. Climate change is already manifesting
rapidly in the form of droughts, fires, floods, resource
scarcity and species loss, among other impacts. In
2020, multiple cities around the world experienced
extreme temperatures not seen for years—such asa record high of 42.7°C in Madrid and a 72-year lowof -19°C in Dallas, and regions like the Arctic Circle
have averaged summer temperatures 10°C higher

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than in prior years. Governments, businesses andsocieties are facing increasing pressure to thwart theworst consequences. Yet a disorderly climate transition
characterized by divergent trajectories worldwide andacross sectors will further drive apart countries andbifurcate societies, creating barriers to cooperation.
Given the complexities of technological, economic
and societal change at this scale, and the insufficientnature of current commitments, it is likely that any
transition that achieves the net zero goal by 2050 will bedisorderly. While COVID-19 lockdowns saw a global dip
in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, upward trajectories
soon resumed: the GHG emission rate rose faster in2020 than the average over the last decade. Countries
continuing down the path of reliance on carbon-intensive
sectors risk losing competitive advantage through ahigher cost of carbon, reduced resilience, failure to keep
up with technological innovation and limited leverage intrade agreements. Yet shifting away from carbon-intense
industries, which currently employ millions of workers,
will trigger economic volatility, deepen unemployment
and increase societal and geopolitical tensions. Adopting
hasty environmental policies will also have unintended
consequences for nature—there are still many
unknown risks from deploying untested biotechnicaland geoengineering technologies—while lack of public
support for land use transitions or new pricing schemes
will create political complications that further slow action.
A transition that fails to account for societal implications
will exacerbate inequalities within and between countries,
heightening geopolitical frictions.

Growing digital dependency will
intensify cyberthreats
Growing dependency on digital systems—intensified
by COVID-19—has altered societies. Over the last 18
months, industries have undergone rapid digitalization,
workers have shifted to remote working where possible,
and platforms and devices facilitating this change haveproliferated. At the same time, cybersecurity threats are
growing—in 2020, malware and ransomware attacks
increased by 358% and 435% respectively—and are
outpacing societies’ ability to effectively prevent or
respond to them. Lower barriers to entry for cyberthreat
actors, more aggressive attack methods, a dearth ofcybersecurity professionals and patchwork governancemechanisms are all aggravating the risk.
Attacks on large and strategic systems will carrycascading physical consequences across societies,
while prevention will inevitably entail higher costs.
Intangible risks—such as disinformation, fraud andlack of digital safety—will also impact public trust indigital systems. Greater cyberthreats will also hamper
cooperation between states if governments continue
to follow unilateral paths to control risks. As attacks
become more severe and broadly impactful, alreadysharp tensions between governments impacted
by cybercrime and governments complicit in theircommission will rise as cybersecurity becomes anotherwedge for divergence—rather than cooperation—among
nation-states.

Barriers to mobility risk compounding
global insecurity
Growing insecurity resulting from economic hardship,
intensifying impacts of climate change and politicalinstability are already forcing millions to leave theirhomes in search of a better future abroad. “Involuntary
migration” is a top long-term concern for GRPS
respondents, while 60% of them see “migration andrefugees” as an area where international mitigation efforts
have “not started” or are in “early development”. In 2020,
there were over 34 million people displaced abroad
globally from conflict alone—a historical high. However,in many countries, the lingering effects of the pandemic,
increased economic protectionism and new labour
market dynamics are resulting in higher barriers to entry
for migrants who might seek opportunity or refuge.
These higher barriers to migration, and their spillover effect on remittances—a critical lifeline for somedeveloping countries—risk precluding a potential
pathway to restoring livelihoods, maintaining politicalstability and closing income and labour gaps. At
the time of writing, the United States faced over
11 million unfilled jobs in general and the European
Union had a deficit of 400,000 drivers just in thetrucking industry. In the most extreme cases,
humanitarian crises will worsen since vulnerable
groups have no choice but to embark on moredangerous journeys. Migration pressures will also
exacerbate international tensions as it is increasingly
used as a geopolitical instrument. Destinationcountry governments will have to manage diplomatic
relationships and immigrant skepticism among
their populations.

Opportunities in space could beconstrained by frictions
While humans have been exploring space for decades,
recent years have witnessed increased activity, notonly creating new opportunities but also signalling
an emerging realm of risk, particularly with growing
militarization and weaponization in the arena. New

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9

commercial satellite market entrants are disruptingincumbents’ traditional influence over the global spacecommons in delivering satellite services, notablyinternet-related communications. A greater number
and range of actors operating in space could generate
frictions if space exploration and exploitation are notresponsibly managed. With limited and outdated
global governance in place to regulate space alongside
diverging national-level policies, risks are intensifying.
One consequence of accelerated space activity is ahigher risk of collisions that could lead to a proliferationof space debris and impact the orbits that hostinfrastructure for key systems on Earth, damage
valuable space equipment or spark international
tensions. Limited governance tools increase thelikelihood of space activity escalating geopoliticaltensions, and recent weapons tests in space
underscore such risks. Increased space activity could
also lead to unknown environmental impacts or raisecosts for public goods such as weather monitoring or
climate change surveillance.

Year two of the pandemic yields
insights on resilience
In 2021, countries deployed new mechanisms
to respond to a public health crisis with shifting
characteristics, leading to both successes and

REUTERS/MUHAMMAD HAMED

failures. Two interlinked factors were critical for
effective management of the pandemic: first, thereadiness of governments to adjust and modify
response strategies according to changing
circumstances; and second, their ability to maintainsocietal trust through principled decisions andeffective communication.
Reflecting on the distinct resilience goals ofgovernments, businesses and communities will help
ensure that agendas are aligned in achieving a wholeof-society approach to tackling critical risks of any
nature. For governments, balancing costs, regulating
for resilience and adjusting data-sharing arrangements
to ensure sharper crisis management are key togalvanizing stronger interaction between public andprivate sectors. Businesses—recognizing that better
national-level preparedness is critical for planning,
investing and executing their strategies—can leverage
opportunities in areas such as supply chains, codesof conduct within their industry and inclusion of a
resilience dimension into workforce benefit offerings.
Communities can help local governments to join
up with national efforts, improve communicationand support grassroots resilience efforts. At anorganizational level, strategies such as grounding
resilience analyses in key delivery requirements,
appreciating systemic vulnerabilities and embracing adiversity of approaches can help leaders build better
resilience as well.

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CHAPTER 1

Global Risks
2022: Worlds
Apart
6%
vaccination rate in poorest 52 countries

97%
public debt-to-GDP in 2020

51 million
increase in extreme poverty projections

197
countries aligned on the Glasgow Climate Pact84%
of experts are worried or concerned about
the world

GETTY/ABSTRACT AERIAL ART

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11

A divergent recovery
At the start of 2022, the COVID-19 crisis
is still ongoing and its economic ructions
continue to be felt. Disparities in progresson vaccination are creating a divergent
economic recovery that risks compounding
pre-existing social cleavages andgeopolitical tensions. These tensions andthe economic overhang of the pandemic
will make it difficult to ensure a coordinatedand sufficiently rapid approach to global
challenges—most notably climate change.
Vaccination and accelerated digitalization
have enabled some countries to recoverrapidly from the economic crisis createdby the COVID-19 pandemic, but manyothers are still struggling to avoid the worst
consequences. At the time of writing,half of the world’s population was stillunvaccinated,1 40% remained offline,2and only 35% of the world’s students
lived in countries where schools are fully
open.3 Some 37% of respondents to thisyear’s Global Risks Perceptions Survey(GRPS) believe the world will follow afractured trajectory in the medium term,increasingly separating relative “winners”
from “losers” of the COVID-19 crisis (seeFigure 1.1). By the time the GRPS wasconducted (see the Technical Notes inAppendix C), only 11% believed the global
recovery would accelerate over the next
three years.
Economic, geopolitical, public health andsocietal fractures—which increase after
pandemics4—risk leading to divergent
and delayed approaches to criticalchallenges facing people and planet:
accelerating the green transition in
response to climate change (see Chapter 2),
coordinating against heightened digital
vulnerabilities (see Chapter 3), managing
mobility and migration (see Chapter 4) andsafeguarding the next global commons:space (see Chapter 5).

FIGURE 1.1“What is your outlook for the world over the next three years?”
Negative scenarios

Positive scenario

10.7%
Accelerating global
recovery

41.8%

37.4%

Consistently volatile withmultiple surprises

Fractured trajectories
separating relative
winners and losers

10.1%
Progressive tipping
points with increasingcatastrophic outcomes

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2021-2022

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FIGURE 1.2“How do you feel about the outlook for the world?”

23.0%

61.2%

Optimistic

Positive

Concerned

Worried12.1% 3.7%

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2021-2022

Effective domestic and international action
on these challenges depends on restoring
trust within societies, galvanizing national andglobal leaders and finding new opportunities
for collaboration (see Chapter 6). Fully 84%

of GRPS respondents were either concernedor worried about the outlook for the world(see Figure 1.2); lack of optimism could
create a vicious cycle of disillusionment andsocial unrest.

A turbulent global context
The pandemic persists
The world continues to grapple with theeffects of COVID-19 on public health. At
the start of 2022, 5.4 million deaths fromCOVID-19 had been reported globally, outof 282 million confirmed cases.5 Moreover,a significant proportion of those infected by
COVID-19 have long-lasting symptoms—
some 10% show persistent ill health 12
weeks after having the disease.6 COVID-19
vaccination has progressed steadily but
unevenly around the world. At the timeof writing, 50 countries had vaccinatedmore than 70% of their population,7 withsome now starting to receive booster
shots, while the vaccination rate in thepoorest 52 countries—home to 20% of
the world’s population—was still only 6%.8
Potentially more infectious variants of thevirus—notably the new Omicron variant—along with waning immunity among thevaccinated and a continued high proportionof people who are unvaccinated meant thatthe number of new cases increased again

towards the end of 2021.9 Unsurprisingly,“infectious diseases” are still considereda critical short-term threat to the world in
the GRPS.
The COVID-19 crisis has also had extensive
collateral health impacts, partly because
other diseases were deprioritized. The
pandemic led to an additional 53 million
cases of major depression globally.10“Mental health deterioration” was one of
the top five risks that GRPS respondents
saw as having deteriorated the mostduring COVID-19. The incidence of noncommunicable diseases—which cause
41 million deaths every year, mostly in
low- and middle-income countries—
has also worsened worldwide due totreatment delays caused by COVID-19.11
Antimicrobial resistance caused nearly 2
million deaths in 2020 and this number
may increase—particularly for malaria andtuberculosis—because of the inappropriate
use of antibiotics to treat COVID-19.12 The
pandemic and its collateral health impacts

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will continue to put pressure on healthsystems across the globe, widen healthinequalities between and within countries,
create social frictions and weigh down longterm economic growth potential.

Risks to economic recovery
The global economic recovery from therecession caused by responses to the
COVID-19 pandemic continues but isslowing. After a contraction of 3.1% in 2020,
global economic growth is expected to reach
5.9% in 2021 and slow to 4.9% in 2022.13
By 2024, the global economy is projected
to be 2.3% smaller than it would have been
without the pandemic.14 Risks to economic
growth are considerable, including risks froma potential resurgence of COVID-19 as newvariants emerge. The previous edition of
the GRPS identified “commodity shocks”,“price instability” and “debt crises” as criticalmedium-term concerns. These are alreadyemerging to some extent. At the time ofwriting, commodity prices had increased
nearly 30% since end of 2020;15 they could
remain volatile because of growing tensions
between Europe and Russia, China’s
energy shortage,16 continued supply chain
disruptions and transition challenges fromdisinvestment in fossil fuel reserves. Inflation
has accelerated in many countries as aresult of pandemic-related disruptions to
supply chains combined with resurgent
consumer demand and higher commodity
prices. This will dampen consumer
sentiment—which has been fundamental
for recovery—and will increase risks
from central bank interest rate rises.17 In
advanced and developing economies alike,higher prices and more expensive debt
would impact lower-income households
especially hard, while small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) that are still trying
to avoid bankruptcy would suffer fromweakening consumption.
Moreover, sovereign debt has spiked
because of the pandemic. Government
debt globally increased by 13 percentage
points, to 97% of GDP, in 2020.18 Alreadystrained public finances in developing
countries are at heightened risk from debt
deleveraging19 and an appreciation of
the US dollar—the US Dollar Index had
risen 7% since the start of 2021.20 GRPS
respondents identified “debt crises” asa critical short- and medium-term threat
to the world, and one of the mostpotentially severe risks over the next
decade (see Figure 1.3). Debt overhangs
will make it more difficult for countries
to deal with the economic impacts of
COVID-19 and finance a socially just,net zero transition.

FIGURE 1.3“Identify the most severe risks on a global scale over the
next 10 years”
Economic

Environmental

GeopoliticalSocietalTechnological

1st

Climate action failure

6th

Infectious diseases

2nd

Extreme weather

7th

Human environmental damage

3rd

Biodiversity loss

8th

Natural resource crises

4thSocial cohesion erosion

9th

Debt crises

5thLivelihood crises

10th

Geoeconomic confrontation

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2021-2022

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GETTY/LIU JIN

Economic divergence
COVID-19 prompted a global recession,
but stark differences in vaccination rates
between countries now risk leading to evengreater economic divergence than theyexperienced before the pandemic. A greater
prevalence of COVID-19 in low-vaccination
countries than in high-vaccination ones
will weigh on worker availability andproductivity, disrupt supply chains andweaken consumption. Moreover, alower post-pandemic risk appetite in thevaccinated world—comprised mostly ofadvanced economies—could weaken
their investment in the non-vaccinatedworld. The economic disruption fromthe pandemic has also created stronger
incentives in the vaccinated world toprioritize resilience over cost minimization.
Governments and industries may now drive
regional convergence at the expense of
global integration as they seek to minimize
supply chain disruptions.
Polarized connectivity, education andincome trajectories risk further fragmenting
the global economy, and divergence islikely to be aggravated by slowing anddisparate growth. Advanced economies are

expected to surpass their pre-pandemic
growth path by 0.9% by 2024, butdeveloping economies (excluding China)
will be 5.5% below it—with Latin America
and Sub-Saharan Africa trailing even further
behind.21 Economic decoupling risks further
hindering already-limited means to restore
growth in developing economies. Suchdecoupling will make it harder for emerging
economies to leverage young workforces,
large consumer markets and competitive
costs. They also risk having less accessto financing and technology to face global
challenges, including climate change.
Although employment is approaching
pre-pandemic levels in many advanced
economies, globally the jobs recovery fromthe COVID-19 crisis is lagging the economic
recovery—global employment remains
lower than it was before the pandemic
and the Great Resignation in advanced
economies has caused labour market

Income disparities riskincreasing polarization andresentment within societies
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participation to fall. Youth, women andlower-skilled workers have been especiallyaffected. It will take the global economy
at least until 2023 to create the jobs lostto COVID-19, but many of these jobs are
expected to be of low productivity andpoor quality, according to the International
Labour Organization.22 “Livelihood crises”
is the second most immediate threat to
the world in the GRPS, and the top one at
the country level in the Executive Opinion
Survey (EOS). It is the most immediatenational threat in 97 countries, including 16of the G20 economies.
A bifurcated economic recovery is likely toprompt an upsurge in economic migration.
At the same time, worsening extreme
weather and a rise in political instability,
state fragility and civil conflict are likely
to further swell refugee numbers. GRPS
respondents rate “involuntary migration”
as a critical threat to the world over the
next decade. Yet, it is a top-10 concern
in only 13 countries surveyed by the
EOS—among them Armenia, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ukraine
and Venezuela, which have recently
experienced challenges related to migration
and refugees. These results suggest that
migration is perceived as a short-term
challenge localized in certain countries, but
a global risk in the longer term. However,the clash between heightened migrationpressures in origin countries and increasing
barriers to migration in destination countries

GETTY/STR

risks creating tensions internationally and, inthe worst cases, humanitarian crises.

Erosion of social cohesion“Social cohesion erosion” is the riskthat has worsened the most globally
since the start of the COVID-19 crisis,
according to the GRPS. It is perceived
as a critical threat to the world acrossall time spans—short, medium and longterm—and is seen as among the mostpotentially damaging for the next 10 years.
In 31 out of the 124 countries surveyed
in the EOS—including Argentina, France,
Germany, Mexico and South Africa among
the G20—“social cohesion erosion” wasseen as a top-10 short-term threat to theircountries. Inequality—economic, political,
technological and intergenerational—was
already challenging societies even before
income disparities increased through the
pandemic.23 These disparities are now
expected to widen further: research by
the World Bank estimates that the richest
20% of the world’s population will haverecovered half their losses in 2021, while
the poorest 20% will have lost 5% more of
their income.24 By 2030, 51 million more
people are projected to live in extreme
poverty compared to the pre-pandemic
trend.25 Income disparities exacerbatedby an uneven economic recovery riskincreasing polarization and resentment
within societies.

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Differing views over vaccinations and
COVID-related restrictions are also adding
to social pressures, with a number ofcountries, including in Europe, seeing riots
by those opposed to government’s COVID
responses. Racial justice also remains apressing issue in many countries, notably
the United States.
A recent poll in the United States, forexample, found “division in the country”
to be voters’ top concern: they expected
it to worsen in 2022.26 In Europe, anotherrecent poll revealed significant generational
differences, with 65% of respondents over
60 saying that they were “not impacted atall” by the pandemic, compared with just
43% of respondents under 30.27 The attackon the US Capitol in January 2021 was one
manifestation of the instability that politicalpolarization risks creating.
Notwithstanding the agreements made at
COP26 signal international commitment
to climate action (see Box 1.1), shortterm domestic pressures will make itharder for governments to focus on longterm national priorities and will limit theattention and political capital that somegovernments worldwide will be able orwilling to allocate to global concerns. Suchpressures could also lead to stronger
national interest postures, which would
worsen fractures in the global economy,
potentially coming at the expense offoreign aid and cooperation needed toresolve conflicts, protect refugees andaddress humanitarian emergencies. The
UK government, for instance, already
dropped its target of spending 0.7% ofgross national income on foreign aid until
at least 2024.28 Fragile economies could
spiral into deeper crises.

Geopolitical tensions
Widening geopolitical fractures risk being
another force for global divergence.
Competition between the United States
and China is increasing. China’s growing
military prowess is changing the balance ofpower in the Western Pacific.29 The UnitedStates is strengthening alliances focusedon the Pacific in response, most recently
with the Australia-UK-US security pact

Countries may drive regional
convergence at the expenseof global integration(AUKUS). Other states, such as Russia andTurkey, are also showing greater capability
and willingness to project power abroad.
Meanwhile, key global and regional powers
are testing boundaries of international law
and cooperation by conducting military
exercises around tense areas, such as
the Russia-Ukraine border and the Taiwan
Strait. Competition is intensifying in newer
dimensions and geographies, as evident
in the militarization and weaponization of
space (see Chapter 5) and in developments
in cyberspace, where already-sharp
tensions between governments impacted
by cybercrime and governments complicitin their commission will continue to rise (seeChapter 3).
Competition is also increasing in theexercise of “soft power”. For example,
China’s vaccine diplomacy, externalfinancing strategy and economic
rebound—its economy is expected tohave grown by 8% annually in 202130—
have allowed it to continue to expand
its influence throughout the developingworld. Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico andTurkey are among the top buyers ofChinese COVID-19 vaccines,31 and net
debt payments to China rose by 62%
in 2020.32 Developing countries may
increasingly look to China for financial,technological and scientific support tothrive in the post-pandemic economy.
Geopolitical tensions are spilling over
into the economic sphere. For example,
India and Japan put protectionist policies
in place during the pandemic.33 Westerncompanies in sensitive sectors such astechnology are encountering increasing
difficulties in doing business in China
and Russia, and Western countries arethemselves restricting investment fromgeopolitical competitors in strategic
sectors. GRPS respondents identified“geoeconomic confrontations” as a criticalmedium- and long-term threat

The Global Risks Report 202217

to the world, and the most potentiallysevere geopolitical risk for the next
decade (see Figure 1.3). Geopoliticaland geoeconomic tensions will make it
more difficult to tackle common global
challenges, notably climate change.

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change
Conference (COP26) succeeded in getting
197 countries to align on the Glasgow
Climate Pact and other landmark pledges(see Box 1.1), but even these newcommitments are expected to miss the
1.5°C goal established in the 2016 Paris
Climate Agreement and increase the risks
from a disorderly climate transition (seeChapter 2).34

The economic crisis created by the
COVID-19 pandemic risks delaying efforts
to tackle climate change by encouraging
countries to prioritize short-term measures
to restore economic growth, regardless of
their impact on the climate, over pursuinggreen transitions. Brazil, for example, joined
the other 140 countries responsible for
91% of the Earth’s forests in endorsing the
Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forestsand Land Use,37 even as deforestationin the Amazon accelerated to a 15-year
high in 2021 following the pandemicinduced recession of 2020.38 Geopoliticaltensions and nation-first postures will also
complicate climate action. COP26 revealed
heightened tensions on climate damage
compensation, with affected countries
facing pushback from large emitters,
including the United States.39

The economic overhang of the COVID-19
crisis and weakened social cohesion—in
advanced and developing economies
alike—may further limit the financial andpolitical capital available for stronger
climate action. The European Union, theUnited Kingdom and the United States,for example, were reluctant to commit toa formal climate finance target to respondto worsening climate change impacts indeveloping country Parties.35 China andIndia lobbied to change the Pact’s wordingfrom “phase out” to “phase down” of“unabated coal power and inefficient fossil
fuel subsidies”.36

Climate change continues to be perceived
as the gravest threat to humanity. GRPS
respondents rate “climate action failure”
as the risk with potential to inflict the mostdamage at a global scale over the next
decade (see Figure 1.3). However, EOS
results hint at divergent senses of urgency
between regions and countries. “Climate
action failure” ranks 2nd as a short-term riskin the United States but 23rd in China—the
two countries that are the world’s largest
CO2 emitters. In addition to its 2nd placerank in the United States, it ranks among
the top 10 short-term risks in 11 otherG20 economies.

Risk of climate action failure

REUTERS/HANNIBAL HANSCHKEThe Global Risks Report 2022

18

BOX 1.1

Outcomes of COP26 and COP15
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP26, held in Glasgow, the United Kingdom),
which passed the Glasgow Climate Pact,1 concluded
with important steps towards the 1.5°C scenario: itrequested governments from 153 countries to update
and strengthen their nationally determined contributions(NDCs), bolstered climate adaptation finance efforts,
and continued the mobilization of billions of US dollars
for climate funding and trillions to be reallocated byprivate institutions and central banks towards global
net zero. COP26 was the first with financial sector
attendance, represented by the Global Financial
Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), whose members
manage over US$130 trillion in assets and alreadyactively fund sustainable investments.2

Key pledges achieved at COP26:
India pledged to reach net zero emissions
by 2070 and announced a target of 50%
renewable energy by 2030. All the largest
emitters have now agreed to start phasingout fossil fuels.

46 countries pledged to transition from coal
to clean power by 2040.

104 countries pledged to a 30% cut in methane
emissions by 2030. Methane accounts for 30%
of historical global warming.

For the first time, the Pact made explicit mention of
the importance of transitioning away from coal—but
did not commit to “phase out” inefficient fossil fuelsubsidies. However, as the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)’s Emissions Gap Report 2021
shows, reaching the 1.5°C target remains unlikely.3
Another key outcome was an agreement on thefundamental norms related to Article 6 of the Paris
Agreement (on carbon markets), making it now fully
operational.4 Businesses and governments also
agreed on more aggressive investment in clean
technologies,5 including a faster transition toelectric vehicles and landmark pledges on methane
emissions and deforestation.6

141 countries that account for 91% of theworld’s forests pledged to end deforestation
by 2030.
The 2021 Conference of the Parties for the Convention
on Biological Diversity (COP15, held in Kunming, China)
resulted in “strong declarations for safeguarding lifeon Earth”,7 along with joint measures for conservation
actions and addressing unsustainable production andconsumption;8 it also paved the way to negotiate apost-2020 global biodiversity framework for part two of
COP15 in May 2022.9

Footnotes
1

UNFCCC. Decision -/CP.26, Advance unedited version. https://
unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop26_auv_2f_cover_decision.pdf

2

UNEP. 2021. “Emissions Gap Report 2021. Addendum to theEmissions Gap Report 2021.” Report. UNEP. 2021. https://wedocs.
unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/37350/AddEGR21.pdf

3

UN Climate Change Conference UK2021. 2021a. COP26 The
Glasgow Climate Pact. November 2021. https://ukcop26.org/
wp-content/uploads/2021/11/COP26-Presidency-OutcomesThe-Climate-Pact.pdf

4

UNFCC. 2021. “COP26 Reaches Consensus on Key Actions
to Address Climate Change”. UN Climate Press Release. 13
November 2021. https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-reachesconsensus-on-key-actions-to-address-climate-change

5

GFANZ. 2021. Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. https://www.gfanzero.com/

6

European Commission. 2021. Launch by United States, theEuropean Union, and Partners of the Global Methane Pledge to

Keep 1.5C Within Reach. European Commission. Statement. 2
November 2021. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/
detail/en/statement_21_5766 ; UN Climate Change Conference
UK2021. 2021. “Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest andLand Use”. 2 November 2021. https://ukcop26.org/glasgowleaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/
7WWF. 2021. WWF reaction to the adoption of the Kunming
Declaration at COP15. World Wildlife Fund. 13 October 2021.
https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?3962441/WWF-reaction-tothe-adoption-of-the-Kunming-Declaration-at-COP15

8IUCN. 2021. IUCN closing statement – part one of the UN
Biodiversity Conference. 18 October 2021. https://www.iucn.org/
news/secretariat/202110/iucn-closing-statement-part-one-unbiodiversity-conference9

Convention on Biological Diversity. 2021. “Part one of UN
Biodiversity Conference closes, sets stage for adoption of post2020 global biodiversity framework at resumption in 2022”. Press
Release. 15 October 2021. https://www.cbd.int/doc/press/2021/
pr-2021-10-15-cop15-en.pdf

The Global Risks Report 2022

19

Secure digitalization
COVID-19 spurred a leap in digitalization,
but to varying extents across countries.
While moving towards hyperconnectivity
has made some countries morecompetitive, others could remain stuck
in a pre-pandemic analogue economy. In
the latter economies, the need for rapid
digitalization to avoid a widening digital
divide remains pressing.40 In the EOS,
“digital inequality” is a top short-term risk
in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa—
the two regions expected to grow theleast in 2022—as well as in low-income
countries more widely. Governments,
businesses and individuals in developing
economies will be seeking to digitalize
rapidly but may have limited technicaland financial resources to enhance cyberdefences against critical infrastructure
breaches or cyber regulations to safeguard
data and privacy.
More parts of the world risk becoming
a base from which cybercriminals can
attack globally, which could deepen
digital divides if such countries then facerestrictions on their access to digitaltechnologies. Rapid digitalization inadvanced economies during COVID-19
has also led to new cyber vulnerabilities.
“Cybersecurity failure” was identified by
GRPS respondents as a critical short-term
threat to the world and scores especiallyhigh with EOS respondents in high-income
countries (see Figure 1.4). There is a riskthat concerns over cybersecurity could
further hamper attempts to promote rapid
and inclusive digitalization globally.

FIGURE 1.4

Score of “Digital Inequality” and “Cybersecurity Failure” in
EOS 2021 versus GDP per Capita in 2020
GDP per capita US$ (2020) from smallest to largest
Digital inequality (%)
60

50

40

30

20

10

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Cybersecurity failure (%)
Sources: World Economic Forum Executive Opinon Survey 2021; World Bank Open Data, “GDP per capita (current US$)”, https://data.
worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, accessed 7 December 2021.
Note: Excludes Luxembourg, Switzerland and Ireland, which have the highest GDPs per capita in the EOS sample (all above US$80,000) andare distant from the rest of the sample (fourth highest is the United States, with US$63,544).

The Global Risks Report 2022

20

Space as a new frontierof divergence
Space is another area where global
divergences risk complicating thecollaboration needed to manage thedevelopment of a common good.
Competition in space is rising and is a
growing preoccupation for the world’s
leading militaries—evidenced by recent
anti-satellite (ASAT) and hypersonic
weapons tests.41 Disparate economic andtechnological trajectories risk precluding
many countries from accessing theopportunities that space entails fortackling climate change and expanding
connectivity, and from ensuring that
their interests are accounted for inglobal decision-making around space
governance and commercialization.
Meanwhile, increased private sector
participation in space and a higher riskof congestion are creating new challenges
for space governance. However, there
is still time for countries to cometogether to ensure common benefits
and sustainable management of whatshould be a universal resource.

Emerging tensions in global cooperation
The global divergence that risks resulting
from ruptures within the world economy,stronger competition for geopoliticaladvantage and domestic pressures toprioritize national objectives will create
complex challenges for global cooperation
over the next years. Four such areas
are analysed in the following deep
dive chapters:– Mounting conviction for a fast but
disorderly climate transition, slowedby social, political and economic
complexities, risks creating akaleidoscope of net zero trajectories,
each with different speeds andcomplications (see Chapter 2).
– Rapid digitalization risks exposing
economies to new and more
intense cyber vulnerabilities, as newtechnologies and an ever-expanding
attack surface enable a more dangerous
and diverse range of cybercrimes (seeChapter 3).
– Increased pressure for migration fromorigin countries as they become more
insecure risks conflicting with higher
barriers in destination countries (seeChapter 4).
– A new space race marked byaccelerated commercial and militaryactivity risks exacerbating tensions andoversaturation of this frontier common,

highlighting the need for strengthening
international governance of space (seeChapter 5).
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed theshortcomings of global cooperation, but
the way forward is not clear. There is aneed for stronger global governance andmore effective international risk mitigation
efforts, since the global, interconnectedchallenges highlighted in this reportcannot be solved by national governments
alone. Yet coming together with common
purpose to achieve lasting results will bechallenging: effective global governancedepends on international cooperation,42
and it will be difficult to secure traction,
harness the necessary capabilities andachieve resolution on critical issues in aninternational relations context characterized
by economic divergence, skepticism
around globalization, a narrower focus onnational interests and intensified geopoliticalcompetition. Existing institutions of global
governance are under pressure—as shown,for example, by the challenges that anunder-resourced World Health Organization(WHO) continues to face in responding
effectively to the COVID-19 pandemic.43
Appreciating this challenge, the final chapterof the report reflects on how governments
can hedge against the prevailing limitationsof multilateralism by pursuing a whole-ofsociety approach to bolstering national
resilience (see Chapter 6).

The Global Risks Report 2022

21

Reflecting on the future
Crises prompt unexpected paths. Different
blind spots, triggers and shocks can havea wide range of outcomes, all with varying
likelihoods and impacts. As readersconsider the results of the GRPS survey,
review the emerging global context andread the deep dives, this report invites
them to consider the behaviours andactions of specific stakeholders and to
consider the consequences for a rangeof risk outcomes, from probable toimprobable and manageable to severe.
Among the most notable areas of socioeconomic concern are the divergent
recovery, economic hardship and growing
inequality, along with their interaction with
ideological polarization and the senseof disenfranchisement of large sectionsof the global population. Governments’
struggles to contain the pandemic

REUTERS/COURTESY NXP SEMICONDUCTORS

and a lack of global collaboration on
COVID-19 offer a sobering view ofprospects for managing future global
risks such as extreme weather and for
pursuing bolder climate action. When it
comes to business and industry, evenenterprises with the financial room
to manoeuvre sometimes struggle todeliver on environmental, social andgovernance (ESG) commitments while
also strengthening the resilience of their
supply chains, adapting to social andtechnological change and remaining
vigilant to threats such as cyberattacks.
Two years on from the start of thisunprecedented crisis, the actions andbehaviours of all stakeholders will
determine how quickly the world recovers
and embeds the resilience needed toprepare for the next major shock.

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22

Global Risks Perception Survey 2021-2022 Results

Scars of
COVID-19“Social cohesion erosion”, “livelihood crises” and “mental health deterioration”
are three of the five risks that have deteriorated the most globally through thecrisis, according to the GRPS. These three risks—and the pandemic itself(“infectious diseases”)—are also seen as being among the most imminent threats
to the world. This societal scarring compounds the challenges of effective national
policy-making and reduces the attention and focus needed on international
cooperation for global challenges.

Looming debt
crises“Debt crises” were identified as an imminent threat to the world for the next two
years, but GRPS respondents believe they will reach their most critical point inthree to five years. Government stimulus was vital to protect incomes, preservejobs and keep businesses afloat, but debt burdens are now high and publicbudgets will continue to be stretched after the pandemic, even as they are needed
for financing just and green transitions.

The planetcannot wait

“Extreme weather” and “climate action failure” are among the top five shortterm risks to the world, but the five most menacing long-term threats are allenvironmental. “Climate action failure”, “extreme weather” and “biodiversity loss”
also rank as the three most potentially severe risks for the next decade. While
GRPS respondents’ concern about environmental degradation predates the
pandemic, increasing concern with climate action failure reveals respondents’ lackof faith in the world’s ability to contain climate change, not least because of thesocietal fractures and economic risks that have deepened.

Connectivity
blind spots“Digital inequality” is seen as an imminent threat to the world as 3 billion people
remain offline. However, it is also the case that many countries and industries
were able to quickly access and seamlessly adapt to new forms of humaninteraction and remote work. This digital leap came with increased vulnerability.
GRPS respondents believe “cybersecurity failure” will continue to test the world’s
digital systems over the next two years and, to a lesser extent, in three to five
years. No technological risk appears among the most potentially severe for the
next decade. This suggests lower relevance to respondents—or a blind spot inperceptions given the potential damage of cyber-risks—compared to economic,
societal and environmental concerns.

Growingrivalries

GRPS respondents believe “geoeconomic confrontations” will emerge as a criticalthreat to the world in the medium to long term and as one of the most potentiallysevere risks over the next decade. While pressing domestic challenges require
immediate attention, the pandemic and its economic consequences have provenonce again that global risks do not respect political frontiers. Humanity faces
the shared and compounding threats of economic fragmentation and planetarydegradation, which will require a coordinated global response.

To see the full results of the GRPS 2021-2022 see: https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2022/
data-on-global-risks-perceptions#report-nav

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23

FIGURE I

COVID-19 Hindsight

Risks that worsened the most since the start of the COVID-19 crisis
Economic

Environmental

GeopoliticalSocietal

Social cohesion erosion

27.8%

Livelihood crises

25.5%

Climate action failure

25.4%

Mental health deterioration

23.0%

Extreme weather

22.7%

Debt crises

13.8%

Cybersecurity failures

12.4%

Infectious diseases

10.9%

Digital inequality

10.5%

Backlash against science

9.5%

Biodiversity loss

8.4%

Geoeconomic confrontations

8.2%

Human environmental damage

7.8%

Youth disillusionment

7.1%

Interstate relations fracture

7.0%

Prolonged stagnation

6.9%

Asset bubble burst

6.7%

Social security collapse

6.2%

Involuntary migration

5.4%

Adverse tech advances

5.3%

Tech governance failure

4.5%

Geopolitical resource contestation

4.4%

Digital power concentration

4.3%

Public infrastructure failure

4.2%

Industry collapse

4.1%

Price instability

3.3%

Commodity shocks

3.0%

Interstate conflict

2.9%

Natural resource crises

2.7%

State collapse

2.6%

IT infrastructure breakdown

2.4%

Multilateralism collapse

2.2%

Illicit economic activity

2.2%

Pollution harms to health

1.9%

Terrorist attacks

1.6%

Geophysical disasters

0.8%

Weapons of mass destruction

0.3%

Technological

The Global Risks Report 2022

24

FIGURE II

Global Risks Horizon

When will risks become a critical threat to the world?
Economic

Environmental

GeopoliticalSocietalTechnological% of respondents

0–2 years

2–5 years

5–10 years

Extreme weather

31.1%

Livelihood crises

30.4%

Climate action failure

27.5%

Social cohesion erosion

27.5%

Infectious diseases

26.4%

Mental health deterioration

26.1%

Cybersecurity failure

19.5%

Debt crises

19.3%

Digital inequality

18.2%

Asset bubble burst

14.2%

Climate action failure

35.7%

Extreme weather

34.6%

Social cohesion erosion

23.0%

Livelihood crises

20.1%

Debt crises

19.0%

Human environmental damage

16.4%

Geoeconomic confrontations

14.8%

Cybersecurity failure

14.6%

Biodiversity loss

13.5%

Asset bubble burst

12.7%

Climate action failure

42.1%

Extreme weather

32.4%

Biodiversity loss

27.0%

Natural resource crises

23.0%

Human environmental damage

21.7%

Social cohesion erosion

19.1%

Involuntary migration

15.0%

Adverse tech advances

14.9%

Geoeconomic confrontations

14.1%

Geopolitical resource contestation

13.5%

The Global Risks Report 202225

Social Cohesion
ErosionBiodiversity Loss

Climate Action Failure

Social Security Collapse

Debt Crises

Livelihood
CrisesMultilateralism Collapse

Biodiversity
Loss

Livelihood Crises

Social Cohesion Erosion

Extreme
Weather

Extreme Weather

Public Infrastructure Failure

SocietalInterstate Relations Fracture

Geoeconomic Confrontations

Climate Action
FailureGeopolitical Resource Contestation

Geopolitical

Human Environmental Damge

Infectious Diseases

Environmental

Involuntary Migration

Geophysical Disasters

Natural Resource Crises

Economic

Pollution Harms to HealthState Collapse
Mental Health Deterioration
Prolonged Stagnation
Illicit Economic Activity

Youth Disillusionment

FIGURE III

Global Risks Effects

Most potentially damaging risks (top row) and risks they will aggravate (bottom row)*
Technological*Line thickness scaled according to tally of links (see Appendix C: Technical Notes).

The Global Risks Report 2022

26

FIGURE IV

International Risk Mitigation Efforts

Current state of international risk mitigation efforts in each area
Not started

Established

Early development

Effective

Artificial Intelligence

20%

70%

9%

1%

Space Exploitation

17%

59%

21%

3%

Cross-Border Cyberattacks
and Misinformation

16%

59%

23%

2%

Migration and Refugees

10%

Biodiversity Preservation

10%

67%

21%

2%

Climate Change Mitigation

9%

68%

21%

2%

Basic Resources Security

9%

49%

39%

3%

Poverty Alleviation

9%

49%

39%

2%

Physical Conflict Resolution

8%

Weapons of Mass Destruction

7%

27%

55%

10%

Financial System Stability

6%

27%

57%

10%

Natural Disaster Relief

6%

Human Health Crises

4%International Crime

4%

Trade Facilitation

2%

50%

53%

34%

48%

36%

22%

5%

10%

49%

43%

26%

3%

37%

59%

64%

4%

11%

12%

The Global Risks Report 2022

27

Endnotes
1

WHO (World Health Organization). “WHO Coronavirus(COVID-19) Dashboard – ‘persons fully vaccinated’”.
https://covid19.who.int/, accessed 3 January 2022.

2

Kemp, S. 2021. “Digital 2021 April Global Statshot
Report”. Datareportal. 26 April 2021. https://datareportal.
com/reports/digital-2021-april-global-statshot

3

UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific andCultural Organization). 2021. “UNESCO warns 117
million students around the world are still out of school”
Press Release. UNESCO. 16 September 2021. https://en.unesco.org/news/unesco-warns-117-million-studentsaround-world-are-still-out-school

4

Sedik, T. S. and Xu, R. 2020. “A Vicious Cycle: How
Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest”.
IMF Working Papers. IMF. 16 October 2020. https://www.
imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/10/16/A-ViciousCycle-How-Pandemics-Lead-to-Economic-Despair-andSocial-Unrest-49806

5WHO. “WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard –‘confirmed cases’ and ‘deaths’”. https://covid19.who.int/,
accessed 3 January 2022.

6

7

8

9

WHO. 2021. “New policy brief calls on decision-makers
to support patients as 1 in 10 report symptoms of “long
COVID””. Policy Brief. WHO. 25 February 2021. https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/
coronavirus-covid-19/news/news/2021/2/new-policybrief-calls-on-decision-makers-to-support-patients-as-1in-10-report-symptoms-of-long-covid
Our World in Data. “Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations– ‘By country’”. https://ourworldindata.org/covidvaccinations?country=OWID_WRL, accessed 3 January
2022.
Bloomberg. “More Than 8.23 Billion Shots Given:
Covid-19 Tracker”. https://www.bloomberg.com/
graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/,
accessed 3 January 2022.
WHO. “WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard –‘confirmed cases’”. https://covid19.who.int/, accessed 3
January 2022.

10 COVID-19 Mental Disorders Collaborators. 2021.

“Global prevalence and burden of depressive and anxiety
disorders in 204 countries and territories in 2020 due
to the COVID-19 pandemic”. The Lancet. Volume 398,
Issue 10312. 6 November 2021. https://www.thelancet.
com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02143-7/
fulltext#%20
11 WHO. 2021. “Noncommunicable diseases”. Factsheet.

WHO. 13 April 2021. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/noncommunicable-diseases
12 Knight, G.M., Glover, R.E., McQuaid, C.F., Olaru, I.D.,

Gallandat, K., Leclerc, Q.J., Fuller, N.M., Willcocks, S.J.,
Hasan, R,, van Kleef, E. and Chandler, C.I.R, 2021.
“Antimicrobial resistance and COVID-19: Intersections andimplications”. Epidemiology and Global Health. eLife. 16
February 2021. https://elifesciences.org/articles/64139

13 IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. World

Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During a
Pandemic Health Concerns, Supply Disruptions, andPrice Pressures. October 2021. https://www.imf.org/en/
Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economicoutlook-october-2021
14 Ibid.
15 MarketWatch. “Bloomberg Commodity Index – YTD”.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/
bcom?countrycode=xx, accessed 3 January 2022.
16 Cohen, A. 2021. “China’s Energy Crisis Deepens

with Potentially Fatal Consequences”. Forbes.
19 October 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/
arielcohen/2021/10/19/chinas-energy-crisis-deepenswith-potentially-fatal-consequences/?sh=4af8e5531163;
Erlanger, S., Reed, S. and Troianovski, A. 2021. “AsEurope faces a cold winter, Putin seizes on the leverage
from Russia’s gas output”. New York Times. 7 October
2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/world/
europe/putin-russia-natural-gas-europe.html;
17 World Economic Forum. 2021. “Chief Economists

Outlook”. WEF. November 2021. https://www3.
weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_
November_2021.pdf
18 Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. and Sugawara, N. 2021. “Navigating

the debt legacy of the pandemic.” Future Development. The
Brookings Institution. 20 October 2021. https://www.brookings.
edu/blog/future-development/2021/10/20/navigating-the-debtlegacy-of-the-pandemic/
19 Galouchko, K. 2021. “Fund managers sour on global

growth expectations, BofA says”. Bloomberg. 19
October 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2021-10-19/bofa-survey-shows-fund-managersslashing-bonds-to-a-record-low
20 MarketWatch. “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – YTD”. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy, accessed 3
January 2022.
21 IMF. 2021. Op. cit.
22 International Labour Organization. 2021. “World

Employment and Social Outlook. Trends 2021.” ILO
Flagship Report. ILO. 2021. https://www.ilo.org/
wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/
documents/publication/wcms_795453.pdf
23 Deaton, A. 2021. “COVID-19 and Global Income

Inequality”. LSE Public Policy Review. London Schoolof Economics Press. 3 May 2021. https://ppr.lse.ac.uk/
articles/10.31389/lseppr.26/
24 Mahler, D. G., Lakner, C. and Yonzan, N. 2021. “Is

COVID-19 increasing global inequality?”. World Bank
Blogs. World Bank. 7 October 2021. https://blogs.
worldbank.org/opendata/covid-19-increasing-globalinequality#_ftnref1
25 Dooley, M. and Kharas, 2021. H. “Long-run impacts of

COVID-19 on extreme poverty”. Future Development.
The Brookings Institution. 2 June 2021. https://www.
brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/06/02/
long-run-impacts-of-covid-19-on-extreme-poverty/

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28

26 Institute of Politics and Public Service. McCourt Schoolof Public Policy. 2021. “New Poll: Voter Frustration
Fuels Sharp Drop in Approval for Biden and both Parties
in Congress”. Press Releases and Announcements.
Georgetown University. 28 October 2021. https://politics.
georgetown.edu/2021/10/28/new-poll-voter-frustrationfuels-sharp-drop-in-approval-for-biden-and-both-partiesin-congress/
27 Krastev, I. and Leonard, M. 2021. “Europe’s Invisible

Divides: How Covid-19 is Polarising European Politics”.
Policy Brief. European Council on Foreign Relations.
September 2021. https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/
Europes-invisible-divides-How-covid-19-is-polarisingEuropean-politics.pdf
28 Reality Check Team. 2021. “Foreign aid: Who will be hit

by the UK government cuts?”. BBC News. 8 November
2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/57362816
29 Cordesman, A. H. and Hwang, G. 2021. “Updated

Report: Chinese Strategy and Military Forces in 2021”.
Report. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
3 August 2021. https://www.csis.org/analysis/updatedreport-chinese-strategy-and-military-forces-2021
30 IMF. Op. cit.
31 Bridge Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. “China COVID-19

Vaccine Tracker”. https://bridgebeijing.com/ourpublications/our-publications-1/china-covid-19-vaccinestracker/, accessed 7 December 2021.
32 World Bank. 2021. “International Debt Statistics 2022”.

Report. World Bank. 11 October 2021. https://www.
worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/11/lowincome-country-debt-rises-to-record-860-billion-in-2020
33 Denyer, S. 2020. “Japan helps 87 companies to breakfrom China after pandemic exposed overreliance”.
The Washington Post. 21 July 2020. https://www.
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-helps87-companies-to-exit-china-after-pandemic-exposedoverreliance/2020/07/21/4889abd2-cb2f-11ea-99b08426e26d203b_story.html; Sikarwar, D.2021. “India set
to erect a Great Wall against Chinese companies”. The
Economic Times. 19 June 2021. https://economictimes.
indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-setto-erect-a-great-wall-against-chinese-companies/
articleshow/76455684.cms?from=mdr

38 Boadle, A. and Spring, J. 2021. “Brazil’s Amazon

deforestation surges to 15-year high, undercutting
government pledge”. Reuters. 19 November 2021.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazildeforestation-data-shows-22-annual-jump-clearingamazon-2021-11-18/
39 Mountford, H., Waskow, D., Gonzalez, L., Gajjar, C.,

Cogswell, N., Holt, M., Fransen, T., Bergen, M. andGerholdt, R. 2021. “COP26: Key outcomes from the UN
Climate Talks in Glasgow”. Reuters. 17 November 2021.
https://www.wri.org/insights/cop26-key-outcomesun-climate-talks-glasgow; Sengupta, S. 2021. “Calls
for climate reparations reach boiling point in Glasgow
talks”. New York Times. 11 November 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/climate/climate-glasgowcop26-loss-damage.html
40 World Economic Forum, in partnership with

Marsh & McLennan Companies, SK Group and Zurich
Insurance Group. 2021. The Global Risks Report 2020.
Insight Report. Chapter 2 Error 404: Barriers to Digital
Inclusivity. Geneva: World Economic Forum. January
2021. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risksreport-2021
41 Balmforth, Tom. 2021. “‘Razor-sharp precision’: Russia

hails anti-satellite weapons test”. Reuters. 17 November
2021. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospacedefense/russia-dismisses-us-criticism-anti-satelliteweapons-test-2021-11-16/; Stewart, P. 2021. “Top U.S.
general confirms ‘very concerning’ Chinese hypersonic
weapons test”. 28 October 2021. https://www.reuters.
com/business/aerospace-defense/top-us-generalconfirms-very-concerning-chinese-hypersonic-weaponstest-2021-10-27/
42 UN DESA (United Nations, Department of Economic andSocial Affairs). 2014. Global Governance and Global Rules
for Development in the Post-2015 Era. Committee forDevelopment Policy Policy Note. 16 June 2014. https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/cdppolicy-note-2014/
43 Schwab, K. and Malleret, T, 2020, “COVID-19: The Great
Reset”, World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.
org/agenda/2020/07/covid-19-the-great-reset/

34 Climate Action Tracker. 2021. “Glasgow’s 2030 credibility

gap: net zero’s lip service to climate action”. The
Climate Action Tracker. 11 November 2021. https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/
35 Irfan, U. 2021. “What the world did and didn’t accomplish

at COP26”. Vox. 13 November 2021. https://www.vox.
com/22777957/cop26-un-climate-change-conferenceglasgow-goals-paris
36 Hodgson, C., Hook, L. and Pickard, J. 2021. “India andChina weaken pledge to phase out coal as COP26 ends”.
Financial Times. 13 November 2021. https://www.ft.com/
content/471c7db9-925f-479e-ad57-09162310a21a
37 UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021. 2021.

“Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land
Use”. UNFCCC. 2 November 2021. https://ukcop26.org/
glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/

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CHAPTER 2

Disorderly
ClimateTransition
1.8°C
most optimistic scenario of global warming
after COP26
US$

130 trillion
committed private capital to carbon neutrality

40 million
jobs created through re-skilling in renewables
sector by 2050

Top 5
environmental risks lead the way in long-term
concerns according to GRPS respondents

REUTERS/YARA NARDI

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30

Climate (in-)action
Accelerating and widespread climate change
manifests itself in irreversible consequences.1
The overwhelming weight of scientificanalysis points to environmental adjustments
and cataclysmic feedback loops that will
push ecosystems beyond tipping points.2 Atthat moment, decarbonization efforts would
be rendered mute.
The latest nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) to decarbonization
made at the 2021 United Nations Climate
Change Conference of the Parties (COP26)
still fall short of the 1.5°C goal set out in the
Paris Climate Agreement (for an extensive
summary of COP26 outcomes, see
Chapter 1, Box 1.1).3 The current trajectoryis expected to steer the world towards
a 2.4°C warming,4 with only the most
optimistic of scenarios holding it to 1.8°C(see Figure 2.1).

Without stronger action, global capacity
to mitigate and adapt will be diminished,
eventually leading to a “too little, too late”
situation and ultimately a “hot house
world scenario” with runaway climatechange that makes the world all but
uninhabitable.5 The world will face highcosts if we collectively fail to achieve thenet zero goal by 2050.6 Complete climate
inaction will lead to losses projected to be
between 4% and 18% of global GDP7 withdifferent impacts across regions.8
The transition to net zero—the state inwhich greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted
into the atmosphere are balanced by theirremoval from the atmosphere*—could
be as transformative for economies andsocieties as past industrial revolutions.
However, the complexities of thetechnological, economic and societal* Net zero carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions
are achieved whenanthropogenic CO2
emissions are balanced
globally by anthropogenic
CO2 removals over a
specified period. Net zeroCO2 emissions are also
referred to as “carbon
neutrality.” This definitionof “net zero” is from the
IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change).
2018: Annex I Glossary.
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
chapter/glossary/

FIGURE 2.1

Global Temperature Scenarios by 2100
Current policies
Action based on
current policies

2030 targets only
Full implementationof 2030 NDC
targets**+4°C

Long-term
pledges and2030 targets
Full implementationof submitted andbinding long-termtargets and 2030
NDC targets**+3.6ºC+3°C+3.0ºC+2.7ºC+2.4ºC+2°C+2.0ºC+1.9ºC+2.6ºC+2.1ºC+1.7ºC+1.5°C

Optimistic
scenarioBest-casescenario; assumes
full implementationof all announced
targets including
net zero targets,
LTSs and NDCs**+2.4ºC+1.8ºC+1.5ºC

1.5ºC Paris Agreement Goal
We are here
1.2°C warming in 2021

+0°C

Pre-industrial average** Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are non-binding national plans for climate action, including targets for GHG emissions reductions.
Long-term strategies (LTSs) are national mid-century development plans for confronting climate change. If 2030 NDC targets are weaker than projected
emissions levels under current policies, then current policies are used here.
Source: Based on the Climate Action Tracker. https://climateactiontracker.org/

The Global Risks Report 202231changes needed for decarbonization,
coupled with the slow and insufficientnature of current commitments, will
inevitably lead to varying degrees ofdisorderliness.
As climate change intensifies and some
economies recover more quickly thanothers from COVID-19, a disorderlytransition could bifurcate societies anddrive countries further apart, and a tooslow transition will only beget damage
and disruption across multiple dimensions
over the longer term (see Box 2.1).
Within countries, the disruptive potentialof the transition could be amplified bydisconnects between governments,
businesses and households with respect
to policy commitments, financial incentives,
regulations and immediate needs. A
sustained lack of coordination between
countries would likely have profoundgeopolitical implications, with rising friction
between strong decarbonization advocates
and those who oppose quick strong action
by using tactics such as stalling climate
action or greenwashing— the practice ofmaking people believe that a company or
authority is more environmentally friendly
than it actually is.

Tailwinds for a fast, butdisorderly, transition
Clear evidence of rising physical risks,such as melting land ice, rising sea levels
and prolonged periods of extreme heatand cold,9 as well as their associatedconsequences for human and economic

COVID-19 lockdowns saw a
global dip in GHG emissions.
However, upward trajectories
soon resumed
systems,10 are intensifying momentum for thetransition. And while COVID-19 lockdowns
saw a global dip in GHG emissions, upward
trajectories soon resumed:11 GHG emissions
rates rose faster in 2020 than their averageover the last decade,12 illustrating how the
global economy is still heavily dependent on
fossil fuels.
Governments, businesses, investors andcommunities are increasingly converging
on the need for a quicker transition—eachgroup setting higher expectations of theother. Green parties and green policies—
such as a carbon border adjustment tax13—
have gained traction in many countries,
regions and industries, as have multilateralideas like climate clubs.14 A plethora ofclimate risk disclosure frameworks andmeasurement standards are now beingcombined within a new International
Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)
by the International Financial ReportingStandards (IFRS). This will help clarify
what needs to be done, and by whom, tohighlight and prevent greenwashing andstalling on climate action.
The rise of stakeholder capitalism,
shareholder activism and increased appetitefrom companies to use environmental,

BOX 2.1

Global Risks Perception Survey Ranks“Climate Action Failure” as Top Risk
Respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) 2021–2022 rank
“climate action failure” as the most critical threat to the world in both the medium
term (2–5 years) and long term (5–10 years), with the highest potential to severely
damage societies, economies and the planet. Most also believe too little is being
done: 77% said international efforts to mitigate climate change have “not started”
or are in “early development”. (The survey was conducted before COP26. See
Appendix C, Technical Notes).

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32

REUTERS/PRAPAN CHANKAEW

social and governance (ESG) targets
and metrics,15 coupled with ESG-based
investments, is re-shaping the financial andeconomic landscape,16 and an increasing
number of organizations are committing
to decarbonize their operations. As
banks, insurers and institutional investors
are steering capital towards net zero,financial systems are rapidly emerging
as critical enablers of the transition. A
growing share of the US$100 trillion bondmarket is mobilized for climate changesolutions, and it is expected to reachthe milestone of US$1 trillion in annual
issuances by 2022.17 Moreover, during
COP26, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for
Net Zero (GFANZ) announced that over
US$130 trillion in private capital has beencommitted to carbon neutrality—enoughto achieve net zero by 2050.18 Similarly,
parties at COP26 agreed on the framework
for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement,
enabling the immediate operationalizing of
global carbon markets, ending uncertainty
about the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) and further establishing a newcentral UN supervisory body to tradecarbon credits on specific projects.

These commitments by both businesses
and governments are being closely
monitored by civil society organizations andinvestors,19 which fear untenable populist
promises are being made for short-term
political or financial gain.20

Headwinds slowing
the transition
The risk of a disorderly transition isaggravated by the interdependencies anddistributed nature of economic and financial
systems, the historic shielding of climatechange externalities from citizens andbusinesses, decarbonization costs, and themany divergent interests at play that willcomplicate the transition. In the short term,
these complexities are likely to prompt
many actors to avoid or defer action.
Some national and business actors are still
deliberately manoeuvring to stall or scaleback the green transition. Governments
need to balance the needs of populations
dependent on carbon-intensive industries
with international commitments. Yet some

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33

of these commitments are lofty and lacking
scientific credibility,21 legislatures are preemptively blocking new climate laws,22 andregulations are being contested in courts byboth proponents who push for more climate
action and those who advocate for less.23
Geopolitical tensions and rising competition
over climate-friendly raw materials also
further threaten to undermine international
cooperation on green transition progress.24
Some actors show little interest in themultilateral platforms on which climate
action is taking place;25 others continue
to prioritize nationally important industries
and could, in the wake of increased global
tensions, shift to national security concerns
over action on the transitions.
With government finances under pressure,
regulatory obligations are not going far or
fast enough, and there is an assumptionthat market forces will come to the rescue.
In many countries there are insufficientincentives for households and businesses
to invest in net zero technologies andfew penalties for failing to do so. Slow
uptake of new technologies such as lowcarbon energy generation and carbon
capture and storage, continued household
overconsumption of carbon-intensive
products and services,26 and a failure to
grasp the seriousness of climate threats all
point to a slower transition that preserves“order” in the near term.27 New innovations
that require high amounts of energy during
production and use, such as crypto-mining
or crypto-trading,28 often coming from fossil

GETTY/SCHROPTSCHOP

Post-COVID-19 recovery
measures mostly neglect thegreen transition in favour of
short-term stability
fuel energy sources, can also offset efforts
to reduce ecological footprints.
Post-COVID-19 recovery measures mostly
neglect the green transition in favour of
short-term stability,29 while loose monetary
policies further distort green, marketbased solutions or investments;30 theyalso exacerbate the problem of zombie
companies.31 Carbon-intensive technologies
continue to receive public subsidies,32 withover 50 developed and emerging economies
committing US$345 billion to fossil fuels in
2020—a figure lower than in previous years
largely because of depressed consumption
and prices during the pandemic.33 At thetime of writing, the economic reboundfollowing the impact of COVID-19 has seen
(fossil) energy demand outstrip supply,34
resulting in sharply increased energy prices,even as the world turns against fossil fuels.35
Moreover, some business actors continue
their efforts to slow the transition. Climatesceptic lobbying,36 greenwashing andsowing misinformation and distrust
about climate science remain pervasivein many countries.37

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34

Some economic incentives also complicate
attempts to coordinate measures that
could internalize costs in high-emission
industries and countries, minimize market
disruptions and more fairly redistributeburdens and rewards. Instead of fostering
decarbonization, the lack of global
emission prices and reporting requirements
continues to shield consumers andproducers from the cost of inaction.38 This
incentivizes countries and businesses
not to curb emissions, but instead togame the system and avoid liability byoffshoring carbon-intense activities or
trading their emissions to countries withless stringent regulations.39 Developing
countries attracted to emissions in-shoring
schemes by short-term financial gainsquander the opportunity to use carbon
allowances for their own development andrisk undermining their future access to tradeflows and the finance needed for mitigation
and adaptation.40
Businesses may be unprepared fortransition risks such as rapid shifts inpolicies and regulations, the need todevelop low-carbon technologies andchanges in consumer behaviour andinvestor preferences.41 These risks havethe potential to destabilize the financial
system,42 as in aggregate they can increasedefault rates and asset volatility. They arefurther amplified in economies with low
investment capability, high reliance on fossil
fuels and less-inclusive political systems.43

Consequences
The consequences and repercussions of
the transition will necessarily reflect the
speed at which it takes place; the efforts
that go into it; and whether it is slow oraggressive, concerted or entrenched, andfocused more on mitigation or adaptation.
The goal of 1.5°C is so fundamental thatsocieties need to be prepared to assume
negative consequences of policies
taken by governments today to avoid
the worst consequences tomorrow. This
includes job losses, increased costs andgeopolitical insecurity associated with adisorderly transition. Only a socially justtransition will make the consequences
bearable for large parts of societies withgovernments needing to create policies
and social-protection systems that help
reduce the impacts for those affected.
A rapid decarbonization would increase
economic and societal disruption in the
short term, while a slower pace with fewer
short-term impacts would entail muchlarger costs and greater disorderliness in
the long-term.
GRPS respondents drew attention to thesocietal consequences of environmental
degradation at a global scale. They identify“climate action failure” and “extreme
weather” as strong aggravators of“involuntary migration”, “livelihood crises”

and “social cohesion erosion”. In contrast,
respondents to the Executive Opinion
Survey (EOS) see the impacts from “climate
action failure” as top risks in the short-term
at a country level: “human environmental
damage” and “extreme weather” areconsidered top-10 risks in 90 economies
and 60 countries, respectively. All countries
ranking these risks highly are particularly
prone to wildfires, droughts, floods,
deforestation and pollution.

Varying speeds
A hasty pace
Concerted, aggressive action now will,
because of the scale of the endeavour,
bring discontinuities and thus disruptions,as efforts within and between industries,
businesses and governments fail to align.
It would alleviate long-term environmental
consequences but could have severe
short-term economic and societal impacts.
Missteps will likely threaten national energy
security, for example, and result in volatileenergy prices. Over the longer term,
countries will face questions regarding
the viability of vehicle fuel and gas supply
arrangements when much of the population
has shifted away from combustion engines,
gas boilers and heating.

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GETTY/AERIAL PERSPECTIVE WORKS

As carbon-intense industries employ millions
of workers, their rapid termination could
trigger economic volatility and increasesocietal and geopolitical tensions. Up
to 8.5 million jobs in the energy sector(almost 30%) could be lost in fossil fuels
and nuclear energy by 2050, althoughwith re-skilling up to 40 million new jobs
could be created, mostly in renewables.44
Earlier or current investments in carbonintensive technologies could result in
stranded assets. These—even if they are
the result of wilfully made investments incarbon-intensive technologies for shortterm gain instead of long-term investments
in clean technologies45—could impact thefinancial sector,46 as well as the transition,
when they are trapped in industries suchas those that extract resources required
for low-carbon technologies.47 Despite
these short-term disruptions, the social andeconomic consequences of unmitigatedglobal warming and entire nations being
flooded or disappearing would be even more
cataclysmic: countries’ complete economies
and assets would be left stranded.
Non-holistic government approaches
also pose risks. Adopting low-carbon
and more sustainable technologies too
hastily, in a way that neglects systemicinterdependencies—such as transitioning
one system before another linked or
dependent one is ready—could leadto production shortages and disrupt
secondary economic cycles if redundant
systems are not in place to prevent energy
supplies from collapsing. Poor regulationof new green markets could create

unwanted monopolies in geopoliticallycontested industries such as rare earth
elements extraction.
Some approaches to the green
transition reflect blind spots that risk
damaging outcomes for workers andthe environment.48 These include
focusing solely on carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions and ignoring methane,49 or
the increased use of resources for lowcarbon technologies. They also risk setting
regulatory requirements to phase out
technologies before substitutes exist or, inother words, a focus on supply constraintof fossil fuels rather than an equal emphasis
on demand-destruction in the most carbonintensive industries.
Slow transition
In contrast, a slower but more orderlytransition might be more manageable inthe short term but would result in the needfor deeper and faster changes by 2050.
This would lead to more pronounced
long-term disorder, amplified at the sametime by more damaging economic activity
such as the closing off of opportunities,
damaging impacts through environmental
degradation impacting societal well-being
and infrastructural fragilities.
The long-term financial impacts would
disproportionately affect large and/or
developing countries.50 Some of thesecountries face political and financial barriers
to swiftly reducing their reliance on fossil
fuel energy production such as cutting
coal use;51 others rely on natural gas to

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reach a higher level of industrialization
before decarbonizing,52 even though thesepolicies further aggravate the destructionof ecosystems. Consequently, the lossof (arable) land would increase migrationpressure and the number of climate
refugees (see Chapter 4). This slow
pathway may lead countries to prioritize
adaptation over mitigation efforts. Yet,
once carbon prices increase and demand
destruction ends up making fossil energy
investment a losing bet, leapfrogging to
renewables sooner than later could prove
to be a more effective long-term investment
for such developing countries.
Divergent paces
It is most likely that national transition
programmes will move at different paces
as a result of differences in political will
(decarbonization ambitions and politicalinterest), economic structure (service
versus manufacturing) and capabilities(technological know-how and financial
wherewithal). Countries that move fasterwill be able to consolidate their own
national capabilities and clean techindustries; those that move more slowly
will lack competitiveness in this area but
be able to leverage the best that has beendeveloped elsewhere. Initiatives that pay
closer attention to scope 3* emissions will
shine a spotlight on global value chains
and will increasingly disadvantage exports
from laggard countries. Furthermore, theheterogeneity of climate action worldwide
will be a risk for trade flows in the
future, especially for the less-developed
economies. By facing narrower access totrade finance, they risk exclusion from theopportunities for orderly climate mitigation
and adaption.53
Reputational damage and liability issues
for governments and businesses seen ascomplicit in, if not responsible for, climatechange could lead to breakdowns in trust
between nations, higher global tensions
and the possibility of sanctions being
introduced against laggard nations, or fines/
trade tariffs against relapsing businesses.

Transition policies risk losing public support
if they neglect the impacts—on landuse, resources, nature—of large-scalewater and wind energy installations,54 or
emanate from failure to create just pricing
schemes for communities willing to invest
in green energy, such as a shift of fossil
fuel to renewable energy subsidies or
equal feed-in tariffs for individuals andlarge-scale providers.55 Poor grid stability
through the intermittency of renewableenergy sources, shortages in storage
capacity and the phasing out of existingbaseload energy technologies that have a
low carbon intensity yet are politically highly
controversial, such as nuclear energy,56
could also dwindle public support forcleaner energy sources.

Especially at risk areunskilled workers unable totransition their skill sets
Biotechnical andgeoengineering solutions
While negative emission technologies
are an essential component of all IPCC
1.5°C scenarios, geoengineering solutions
could be silver-bullet solutions, but they
may not adequately explore systemicinterdependencies and implications.57
Moreover, the deployment of such untested
technologies carries unknown risks. Somegeoengineering approaches—such as
weather modification or solar radiation
management (SRM)—could spiral out ofcontrol or create friction if they are used
for geopolitical advantage in the absenceof any governance framework,58 as theeffectiveness could vary regionally.59 They
could exacerbate geopolitical tensions
between countries where the local climate
is improving and those that are sufferingfrom the unintended consequences.60
On the other side, biotechnical solutions
such as carbon dioxide removal (CDR)* Scope 1 emissions are direct emissions from owned or controlled sources. Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the generation of purchased
energy. Scope 3 emissions are all indirect emissions (not included in scope 2) that occur in the value chain of the reporting company, including both
upstream and downstream emissions. This definition of “Scope 3 emissions” is from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. 2021. https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/
default/files/standards_supporting/FAQ.pdf

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from the atmosphere need to be scaled
up to come close to keeping the 1.5°C
scenario within reach under all IPCC
scenarios.61 The robustness of any net
zero strategy that relies on CDR depends
both on the effectiveness of the underlying
projects that drive the CO2 removal and,especially, on the permanence of thestored carbon.62 Other solutions, such ascarbon capture, utilization and storage(CCUS), are already heavily subsidized,63
but they risk being used for greenwashingas carbon-heavy industries eventually failto structural change their value chainsto reduce their emissions.64 Similarly,
Bio-energy Carbon Capture and Storage(BECCS) solutions could create unintended
geopolitical consequences or prove to be
counterproductive. 65

Stakeholder consequences
Loss of agency: Consequences
for individuals
The type of transition will have far-reachingsocio-economic implications for individuals.
Where policies, incentives and innovations
fail to stimulate effective market solutions,households will see increases in their costof living due to rising decarbonization
requirements for homes, rising fossil fuel

GETTY/VISOOT UTHAIRAM

prices and physical climate impacts, among
other issues. They may also face increased
service disruption from utilities where
system dependencies and discontinuities
have not been adequately anticipated byparticipants. Especially at risk are unskilledworkers, those unable to transition theirskill sets and those currently employed incarbon-intensive industries that undergo
radical transformation.66 Many of theseworkers are already facing challenges
related to automation and the hyperglobalization of the pre-COVID-19 era,
when key heavy industries such as coal andsteel were offshored to emerging markets.67
Middle-class households could also be left
behind if aggressive transition measures
impact their finances and their purchasing
power diminishes substantially.
Loss of income would inhibit people’s
access to new technologies and upward
mobility, entrenching inequalities forgenerations. Unequal transition speeds
could widen inequalities between
economies and create pressure on
workers to migrate to countries where
their skills are still in demand (see Chapter4). Failed or slow climate action could
worsen gender inequalities as, in many
low-income economies, women are
responsible for gathering and producing

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REUTERS/OCTAVIO JONES

food, securing water and collecting
bioenergy sources such as firewood andcrop waste. Together, these consequences
could trigger disillusionment with climate
action and lead to the radicalization of
marginalized socio-economic groups
across the political spectrum.
Loss of control: Consequencesfor governments
Governments will face backlash whether
climate action is slow or aggressive.
Steeper transition costs such as high andquick increase in the price of carbon andfossil fuels could weaken public support forfast action; conversely, slow action could
trigger further radicalization from those who
feel authorities at all levels do not act fastenough, with a potential increase in intergenerational friction and more fiscal drain
due to increased recovery funding. Investingin a net zero economy could create
unsustainable levels of debt for economies
lacking the means of such large-scale
investment, or the loss of rent/tax revenue
for economies heavily dependent on carbon
intensive resource production, which would
cripple public finances already vulnerablefrom the economic impacts of COVID-19
fallouts (see Chapter 1). Especially at risk
are more climate-vulnerable countries;
such green investment could be seen as adiversion from pandemic-related recovery
programmes and the enhancement of corepublic infrastructure and services. Unequal
access to low- or zero-carbon innovations
could undermine support for governments
in some countries.68

A socially unjust transition would exacerbate
geopolitical and economic friction andinequalities between countries and regions.
Laggard economies—especially those reliant
on carbon-intensive sectors and that fail tokeep up with technological innovation—risklosing competitive advantage and leveragein trade agreements, civil unrest, regimechange and massive economic and societal
disruption. Unequal access to materials
and funding to enable the transition could
increase tensions, as could unintended
consequences—such as the destructionof ecosystems in developing countries toextract resources for next-level electrificationof mobility in developed economies.69
Failed or delayed financial promises byadvanced economies—such as a decline
in promised foreign direct investment(FDI),70 or shortcomings to the globallyagreed annual $100 billion for emerging
and developing countries to finance theirtransition to lower emissions and adaption
measures to the physical consequences ofclimate change71—could leave developing
countries stranded with costly, aggressive
transition plans, unable to provide forvulnerable populations.
A zero-sum political game, with a firstcome, first-served mentality, compounded
by a lack of solidarity and combined withthe absence of clear climate governance orenforceable accountability measures would
increase tensions between economies
transitioning quickly and those preferring or
needing a slower transition.

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39

Loss of market share: Consequences
for businesses
Policies triggering the prematuretermination of large-scale industries
would disrupt markets, affect financing
mechanisms and limit investment
opportunities.72
Inconsistent policy signals, choices
crippling competitiveness, and conflicting
rhetoric, regulations and incentives would
generate discontent among businesses.
The transition could lead to stranded
assets in carbon-intensive industries,73
while devaluations could potentially affectthe financial system,74 leading to loss ofliquidity and increasing liability, credit andmarket risks.75 Businesses perceived as
lagging, or as complicit in slowing down
climate action,76 could lose consumer andinvestor confidence and face additional
state intervention and liability risk throughjudicial action.77 Overall, businesses could
also lose out on opportunities to invest
in net zero technologies and the skilled
professionals of the future,78 impacting
their long-term viability.
A disorderly transition could see more
frequent and severe supply chain
disruptions due to labour and productshortages, especially as sectors andcompanies switch operating models
or simply go out of business. These
disruptions present challenges to theresilience of business models acrossall industries.
Loss of nature
How the speed and degree of transition
impacts natural ecosystems will, in turn,help or hinder its effectiveness. Someactions taken to mitigate climate change
will incur costs for nature. In the rush toincrease biomass use for BECCS, to use
more agricultural land to create biofuels forindustries such as aviation, and to extract
minerals needed for the decarbonization of
the world’s economy,79 additional negative
impacts on ecosystems and indigenous
societies in emerging economies are
difficult to avoid. Solutions used for carbon
offsetting, such as restoring or reforestingland—so-called offset forests—could bedestroyed if that land is damaged by more
severe weather such as wildfires or floods,
eventually unleashing the stored carbon.
Poorly sited windfarms or hydroelectric
dams can affect ecosystems and wildlife
at a large scale, and they also present
societal risks (such as forced relocation of
local residents) and political risks (such as
by controlling downstream water-accessto neighbouring countries). The continued
degradation of nature will add to stress on
local residents, public health, businesses
and ultimately the stability of society, while
regional population growth will further
impact the use of land and resources suchas water and food.

Shocks to Reflect Upon

Green Market Crash

Fusion Power at Last

Collateral Geo-Damage

What if the boom in sustainable
investments becomes a bubble,
followed by a crash that cripples
innovation and progress?

What if a new transformativetechnology emerges but cannot
be mass-produced at low cost,disadvantaging developing
economies and impacting climate
action dynamics?

What if unilateral implementationof large-scale geoengineeringsolutions creates unexpected
knock-on effects that developing
economies are ill-equipped
to handle?

The Global Risks Report 202240

Towards a more sequenced transition
Beyond the sheer scale, complexity andinterdependency of the needed changes,
the climate transition will be disorderly
because decades of inaction and hesitant
implementation of transition measures on
local and global levels have steered theplanet onto a path that will be difficult
to change.
In a recovering yet diverging global
economy, countries will need to transition
at varying paces to prevent short-term
disruptions from offsetting long-term
gains, but the consequences of disparatetransitions will be felt worldwide. The least
disruptive climate transition measures
will be those that holistically integrate theneeds of individuals, societies, businesses
and planet. Domestic and international

GETTY/BLOOMBERG

collaboration should focus on educating the
public about the value and need of climate
action, including a change in consumer
behaviour and demand-destruction for
carbon intensive goods. Businessesof all sizes need to be incentivised toproactively factor in transition risks andmove to circular economy models, while
governments should be encouraged totake bold and immediate steps towards
implementing robust legal frameworks that
ensure a just transition.
Any transition of this scale will be disruptive.
All stakeholders need to focus on actions
that will drive an innovative, determined andinclusive transition in order to minimize theimpacts of disorder, facilitate adaptationand maximize opportunities.

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41

Endnotes
1

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2

Elwin, P. and Baldock, Ch. 2021. “No rain on the plain: Deforestation
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77 Court of The Hague. 2021. Op cit.
78 Bailey, R., Yeo, J., Jiang, L. and Ferguson, A. 2020. ESG as a
Workforce Strategy: Engaging Today’s Employees and Attracting
Tomorrow’s Talent. Marsh McLennan. https://www.marshmclennan.
com/insights/publications/2020/may/esg-as-a-workforce-strategy.
html
79 Dominish, E., Florin, N. and Teske, S. 2019. Responsible Minerals
Sourcing for Renewable Energy. Report prepared for Earthworks by
the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney.
https://earthworks.org/assets/uploads/2019/04/MCEC_UTS_Report_
lowres-1.pdf

65 Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. and Popp, A. 2018. “Biomassbased negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary
boundaries”. Nature Climate Change. 8, 151–155. https://www.
nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0064-y; O’Leary, S. and Hunkler,
B. 2021. “Carbon capture, use, and sequestration (CCUS) would

The Global Risks Report 2022

44

CHAPTER 3

DigitalDependencies
and Cyber
Vulnerabilities
435%
increase in ransomware in 2020

3 million
gap in cyber professionals needed worldwide
US$

800 billion
estimated growth in value of digital commerceby 202495%
cybersecurity issues traced to human error

GETTY/THOMAS TRUTSCHELThe Global Risks Report 2022

45

Digital distress
Governments, societies and companies
increasingly rely on technology to manage
everything from public services to businessprocesses, even routine grocery shopping.1
Converging technological platforms,
tools and interfaces connected via aninternet that is rapidly shifting to a more
decentralized version 3.0 are at once
creating a more complex cyberthreat
landscape and a growing number of critical
failure points. As society continues tomigrate into the digital world, the threat ofcybercrime looms large, routinely costingorganizations tens—even hundreds—ofmillions of dollars. The costs are not justfinancial: critical infrastructure, societal
cohesion and mental well-being are also
in jeopardy.

Digital everythingGrowing dependency on digital systems
over the last 20 years has drasticallyshifted how many societies function.2 The
COVID-19-induced shift to remote work
has accelerated the adoption of platforms
and devices that allow sensitive data to beshared with third parties—cloud service
providers, data aggregators, application
programming interfaces (APIs) and othertechnology-related intermediaries.3 Thesesystems, while powerful tools for data andprocessing, attach an additional layer of
dependency on service providers. Remote
work has also moved digital exchanges fromGETTY/FILIPPOBACCI

office networks to residential ones, whichhave a greater variety of connected devices
with less protection against cyber intrusion.
In parallel, the appetite for capabilities
predicated upon using multiple technologies
working in concert—including artificial
intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT)/
Internet of Robotic Things–enabled devices,edge computing, blockchain and 5G—isonly growing.4 While these capabilities afford
tremendous opportunities for businesses
and societies to use technology in ways thatcan dramatically improve efficiency, quality
and productivity, these same capabilities
also expose users to elevated and more
pernicious forms of digital and cyber risk.
In the future, the interconnectedness andconvergence of these digital tools willcontinue to increase as society embraces
the next version of the internet built uponblockchain technology. One manifestationof this migration will be the metaverse:
a network of 3D virtual spaces, enabled
by cryptocurrencies and non-fungible
tokens (NFTs) among other technologies,
with unprecedented socio-economic
interoperability and immersive virtual
reality experiences.5 Users will be
required to navigate security vulnerabilities
inherent in both increased dependency
on and growing fragmentation in thesetypes of complex technologies often
characterized by decentralization and lackof structured guardrails or sophisticatedonboarding infrastructure.

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46

FIGURE 3.1

Total Cryptocurrency Value Received
by Ransomware Addresses, 2013-2020
Cryptocurrency value in millions of US$
500

406.34

400
300
200

92.94

100
0

0.51

1.11

0.89

17.78

2013

2014

2015

2016

37.68

27.3

2017

2018

2019

2020

Currencies included: BCH, BTC, ETH, USDT
Source: Based on Chainanalysis. Ransomware 2021: Critical Mid-Year Update. Insights blog. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/ransomware-updatemay-2021

Cyber vulnerabilities
In the context of widespread dependency
on increasingly complex digital systems,
growing cyberthreats are outpacing
societies’ ability to effectively preventand manage them. For example, thedigitalization of physical supply chainscreates new vulnerabilities because
those supply chains rely on technology
providers and other third parties, which
are also exposed to similar, potentiallycontagious, threats.6 In December 2021,
just one week after discovering a criticalsecurity flaw in a widely used software
library (Log4j), more than 100 attempts at
exploiting the vulnerability were detected
every minute, illustrating how free accesscoding can spread vulnerabilities widely.7
Information technology (IT) monitoringand management software also illustrate
the potential for contagious exposure,which can break through the defencesof critical cybersecurity supply chains, as
shown by the Solar Winds Orion attack
that occurred in late 2020.8 While a statebased institution with highly sophisticatedcapabilities probably lodged this attack,other criminal organizations will certainly
attempt to replicate this approach.9 At thesame time, older vulnerabilities persist withmany organizations still relying on outdated
systems or technologies.

Malicious activity is proliferating, in part
because of the growing vulnerabilities—but
also because there are few barriers to entry
for participants in the ransomware industry
and little risk of extradition, prosecution or
sanction.10 Malware increased by 358%
in 2020, while ransomware increasedby 435%,11 with a four-fold rise in the
total cryptocurrency value received byransomware addresses (see Figure 3.1).12“Ransomware as a service” allows evennon-technical criminals to execute attacks, atrend that might intensify with the advent ofartificial intelligence (AI)-powered malware.13
In fact, profit-seeking groups of cyber
mercenaries stand ready to provide access tosophisticated cyber-intrusion tools to facilitatesuch attacks. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies
have also allowed cybercriminals to collectpayments with an only modest risk ofdetection or monetary clawback.14
Attacks themselves are also becoming
more aggressive and widespread.15
Cyberthreat actors using ransomware
are leveraging tougher pressure tactics
as well as going after more vulnerable
targets, impacting public utilities, healthcare
systems and data-rich companies.16 For
example, before it disbanded, DarkSide—the group accused of being responsible for
the Colonial Pipeline attack—offered a suiteof services (“triple” or “quadruple” extortion)

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47

REUTERS/JIM YOUNG

to clients beyond simply encrypting files;
these included data leaks and distributed
denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. Hacker
groups will also contact victims’ clients orpartners to get them to urge the victims to
pay ransoms. Among the services offeredis the collection of top executive information
for blackmail.17
Sophisticated cyber tools are also allowing
cyberthreat actors to attack targets ofchoice more efficiently, rather than settlingfor targets of opportunity, highlighting thepotential to carry out more goal-oriented
attacks that could lead to even higher
financial, societal and reputational damage
in the future. Increasingly sophisticateduse of spyware technologies, for example,
has allowed for targeted attacks againstjournalists and civil rights activists acrossgeographies—spurring a wave of politicaland industrial blowback in the form ofgovernment sanctions and lawsuits.18 The
ability to tailor attacks at will includes timing
them for when cybersecurity teams andleadership could be distracted by otherpriorities, such as during peak COVID-19
outbreaks or a natural disaster. Cyberthreat
actors are also accessing higher-quality andmore sensitive information from victims.
And deepfake technology is allowing
cyberthreat actors to improve social
engineering ploys, proliferate disinformation
and wreak societal havoc, especially attimes of high volatility.19

Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS)
respondents reflect these trends, ranking“cybersecurity failure” among the top-10
risks that have worsened most since thestart of the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, 85%of the Cybersecurity Leadership Communityof the World Economic Forum have stressedthat ransomware is becoming a dangerously
growing threat and presents a major
concern for public safety.20 At a regional
level, “cybersecurity failure” ranks as a topfive risk in East Asia and the Pacific as wellas in Europe, while four countries—Australia,
Great Britain, Ireland and New Zealand—ranked it as the number one risk. Manysmall, highly digitalized economies—suchas Denmark, Israel, Japan, Taiwan (China),
Singapore and the United Arab Emirates—
also ranked the risk as a top-five concern.
Already-stretched IT and cybersecurity
professionals are under an increasing
burden, not only because of the expansionof remote work but also because of thegrowing complexity of regulations for dataand privacy, even though such regulations
are critical to ensuring public trust in digitalsystems.21 There is an undersupply of“Cybersecurity failure” is oneof the risks that worsened themost through COVID-19
The Global Risks Report 202248

cyber professionals—a gap of more than
3 million worldwide22—who can provide
cyber leadership, test and secure systems,
and train people in digital hygiene.23 As withother key commodities, a continued lack of
cybersecurity professionals could ultimately
hamper economic growth,24 although
new initiatives to “democratize”
cybersecurity, for example, by providing
free cybersecurity risk management tools,
could help fill some of the gaps for small
businesses or other institutions.25
There are concerns that quantum
computing could be powerful enough tobreak encryption keys—which poses a
significant security risk because of thesensitivity and criticality of the financial,personal and other data protected by thesekeys. The emergence of the metaverse
could also expand the attack surface formalicious actors by creating more entry
points for malware and data breaches.26
As the value of digital commerce in the
metaverse grows in scope and scale—by some estimates projected to be over
US$800 billion by 2024—these types
of attacks will grow in frequency andaggression.27 The myriad forms of digitalproperty such as NFT art collections anddigital real estate could further enticecriminal activity.
For governments attempting to prevent
cybersecurity failures, patchwork
enforcement mechanisms acrossjurisdictions continue to hamper efforts
to control cybercrime.28 Geopoliticalrifts hinder potential cross-bordercollaboration, with some governments
unwilling or unable to regulate cyber
intrusions that originate inside and impact
outside their borders. Unsurprisingly,
given the geopolitical tensions arounddigital sovereignty, according to GRPS
respondents, “cross-border cyberattacks
and misinformation” and “artificial
intelligence” were among the areas withthe least “established” or “effective”
international risk mitigation efforts.
Companies must also act ahead of
new regulatory shifts, as the politicalundercurrents/geopolitical tensions
between various countries might
impact cross-border data flows. Thismight mean moving data processing
to jurisdictions that might allow for
better customer protection arounddata privacy issues.29

Consequences
Often-repeated examples of past cyber
intrusions are worth re-examination, as
these cases demonstrate how damaging
attacks on large and strategically significant
systems—such as banking, hospital, Global
Positioning System (GPS) or air traffic
control systems—could be.30 As resources
are increasingly digitized, notable as wellis the heightened risk of cyber espionage
attacks that typically target intellectual
property and result in high developmental
and reputational costs to both private andpublic sector organizations.31
The interaction between digitalization andgrowing cyberthreats carries intangible
consequences as well. The growth ofdeepfakes and “disinformation-for-hire” islikely to deepen mistrust between societies,business and government.32 For example,

deepfakes could be used to sway elections
or political outcomes.33 More concretely, in
one recent case, cybercriminals cloned thevoice of a company director to authorize
the transfer of US$35 million to fraudulent
accounts.34 There is also a booming market forservices designed to manipulate public opinion
in favour of clients, public or private, or todamage rivals.35 Fraud, too, will become easierand therefore more frequent with banking,health and civic processes going remote.

Patchwork enforcement
mechanisms continue tohamper efforts to control
cybercrime
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49

In 2021, UK internet banking fraud roseby 117% in volume and 43% in value
compared with 2020 levels, as people
spent more time shopping online.36 Digital
safety overall—from health misinformationand extremism to child exploitation—faces
new challenges with unexperienced andmore vulnerable populations coming online.37
Even in the best-case scenario of
aggressive digital threat defences, there
will be significant increases in the cost ofoperations for all stakeholders. This could
be particularly challenging for small- or
medium-sized businesses that might
spend 4% or more of their operational
budget on security, compared to larger
organizations that might spend closer to
1–2%.38 Indeed, amid the rising frequency
and severity of ransomware claims,
cyber insurance pricing in the UnitedStates rose by 96% in the third quarterof 2021, marking the most significant
increase since 2015 and a 204% yearover-year increase.39 Respondents to the
GRPS indicate a long-term concern withthese developments, with “adverse techadvances” appearing as a top-10 risk overa 5-to-10-year horizon.
Cyberthreats also continue to drivestates apart, with governments following
increasingly unilateral paths to control

GETTY/CONSTRUCTION PHOTOGRAPHY/AVALON

risks. As attacks become more severe
and broadly impactful, already-sharp
tensions between governments impacted
by cybercrime and governmentscomplicit in their commission will rise as
cybersecurity becomes another wedge
for divergence, rather than cooperation,
among nation states.40 Particularly in an eraof rising tensions between superpowers,
cyberattacks are another battlefront inwhich escalation is a key risk (see Chapter1).41 If cyberthreats continue without
mitigation, governments will continue toretaliate against perpetrators (actual or
perceived), leading to open cyberwarfare,
further disruption for societies and lossof trust in governments’ ability to act asdigital stewards.
Digital security divides: Consequences
for people
Among the most vulnerable are those
who are only now coming online or willsoon do so. Around 40% of the world’s
population is not yet connected to theinternet.42 These individuals are alreadyfacing inequalities in digital security, which
will only widen with the advent of internet
3.0 and the metaverse.43 Within digitallyadvanced societies, vulnerable populations
are also often more digitally at risk: forexample, a recent study finds that lowincome residents of San Francisco—

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50

FIGURE 3.2

Emotions Experienced after Detecting
Unauthorized Access
Global total of those who detected unauthorized access in past 12 months

52%
Angry

31%

Powerless

46%

41%

Stressed

Vulnerable

19%

14%

Embarrassed

At fault

34%

34%

10%

2%

Violated

ScaredUnbothered

Other

Source: NortonLifeLock Inc. 2021. “2021 Norton Cyber Safety Insights Report: Global Results”. Norton and The Harris Poll. May 2021. https://now.
symassets.com/content/dam/norton/campaign/NortonReport/2021/2021_NortonLifeLock_Cyber_Safety_Insights_Report_Global_Results.pdf

the cultural heart of Silicon Valley—are
more likely than wealthier residents tobe cybercrime victims.44 In other situations,obligatory digital identity markers could
introduce new risks for citizens,particularly evident in the growing riskthat deepfakes could compromise
biometric authentication.45
Individuals will increasingly experienceanxiety as control over their data becomes
more precarious and they are subjected
to personal attacks, fraud, cyberbullying
and stalking (see Figure 3.2).46 A perceived
lack of agency could also lead to apathy
in taking responsibility for securing one’s
own digital footprint, as evinced by thecontinued market dominance of instantmessenger applications plagued byprivacy controversies.47 Even with morewidespread “reject all” options on websites
intended to simplify personal data privacy,
there are drawbacks and caveats—suchas limiting functionality and other options.
Importantly, these features are
just a tiny part of the larger privacy

equation. Websites are still littered withtracking pixels and third-party scriptsthat remain powerful ways to fingerprint
online behaviours.48
Overreaching or underdelivering:Consequences for governments
Government at all levels faces mounting
responsibilities and many are struggling
to uphold their end of the digital social
contract: securing critical infrastructure;addressing threats to “epistemic security”
from disinformation; protecting the integrityof civic processes and public services;
legislating against cybercrime; training
and educating populaces around cyber
literacy; regulating digital service providers;and ensuring the availability of resources,
such as rare-earth minerals, for the digital
economy. The necessary oversight could
lead to overreach as governments moveto shut down systems, erect higher digitalbarriers or embark on digital colonization(by monopolizing digital systems) for
geopolitical ends.49 While such actions
might carry the ostensible goal of reducing

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51

attacks and disruption, these policies
could quickly become a vehicle foroppression. Already suffering from a loss
in public trust as a result of the COVID-19
crisis, governments may face further
societal anger if they are unable to both
keep up with the shifting threat landscapeand responsibly manage these challenges.
Pay, protect or perish: Consequences
for businesses
As cyberthreats continue to grow, insuring
against such risks will become increasingly
precarious, with insurers themselvesfacing retaliatory attacks for attempting tocurb ransomware payments.50 Thus, whenan attack occurs, businesses will either beforced to pay increasingly high ransoms or
suffer the reputational, financial, regulatory
and legal consequences of cyberattacks.
As previous incursions (like SolarWinds)
have demonstrated, exposure to vendors
and supply chain partners must also beassessed and managed. The impact
of disruptive cyberattacks could be
financially devastating for businesses thatfail to invest in protections for their digital
infrastructure, particularly in a scenario

in which governments begin prohibiting
ransom payments or penalizing poor
cybersecurity practices.51 Furthermore,
as environmental, social and governance(ESG) concerns come increasingly into
focus (see Chapter 2), businesses thatfail to demonstrate strong corporate
governance around cybersecurity—suchas by implementing robust systems andprocess oversight protocols, and bypracticing accountability and transparency
in the event of a breach—could suffer
reputational harm in the eyes of ESGfocused investors.
Businesses also operate in a world inwhich 95% of cybersecurity issues canbe traced to human error,52 and where
insider threats (intentional or accidental)
represent 43% of all breaches.53 Somecompanies will inevitably move to greater
segmentation of digital systems to betteraccount for insider risk. Companies could
begin or continue to lock up key data
as a result of the cybersecurity issues.
Workforce efficiency, too, could suffer
if accessing data and information isless seamless.

Shocks to reflect upon

NotPetya 2.0

Sovereignty slips

Undetecteddisruption

What if an attack that is evenmore wide-ranging and costly
than NotPetya—with the ability
to self-propagate and evenmutate to avoid preventative
controls—created cascading
lockups of systemically importantbusinesses, bankruptingorganizations, disrupting services
and unwinding the digitaltransformation efforts made overthe past years?

What if the shifts towards privately
held IT infrastructure as well as
cryptocurrency and decentralized
finance undermine governments’control over data, processes andfinancial systems?

What if subtle changes inhealth, banking or other data
go undetected for years, but
carry significant consequences
for premature death, lossof funds or other significant
consequences over time? How
can cyber espionage compromise
return on R&D investment andcompetitiveness in the future?

The Global Risks Report 202252

Towards greater cyber resilienceAs our reliance on digital technologies
grows and Internet 3.0 becomes reality,
efforts aimed at building norms and defining
rules of behaviour for all stakeholders
in cyberspace are intensifying. While
multistakeholder international dialogues
can help strengthen links between actors
operating in the digital security realm,
cooperation between organizations could
unlock best practices that can be replicatedacross industries and economies. Initiatives
should focus on emerging technologies,
such as blockchain, quantum and artificial
intelligence, as well as the modes of digitalexchange they facilitate, like the metaverse.
Leaders must remain attentive to perennialconcerns like cybercrime and ransomware

REUTERS/MAXIM SHEMETOV

attacks as well. At the organizational
level, upskilling leaders on cybersecurity
issues and elevating emerging cyberrisks to board-level conversations will
strengthen cyber-resilience. In a deeply
connected society, digital trust is thecurrency that facilitates future innovationand prosperity. Trustworthy technologies,
in turn, represent the foundation on which
the scaffolding of a fair and cohesivesociety is built. Unless we act to improve
digital trust with intentional and persistenttrust-building initiatives, the digital world
will continue to drift towards fragmentationand the promise of one of the mostdynamic eras of human progress may
be lost.

The Global Risks Report 202253

Endnotes
1

World Economic Forum, in partnership with Marsh & McLennan
Companies, SK Group and Zurich Insurance Group. 2021. The
Global Risks Report 2021. Insight Report. Chapter 2 Error 404.
Geneva: World Economic Forum. January 2021. https://www.
weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2021

2

World Economic Forum, in partnership with Marsh & McLennan
Companies and Zurich Insurance Group. 2020. The Global Risks
Report 2020. Insight Report. Chapter 5 Wild Wide Web. Geneva:
World Economic Forum. January 2020. https://www.weforum.
org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

3

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. 2021. The Biggest
Cloud Security Challenges of 2021. https://pages.checkpoint.
com/2020-cloud-security-report.html?utm_term=cyber-hub;
Kent, J. 2020. “APIs are the next frontier in cybercrime”. Security.
3 September 2020. https://www.securitymagazine.com/
articles/93239-apis-are-the-next-frontier-in-cybercrime4

Hoster, B. and Sequeira, T. 2021. Harnessing Technology
Convergence: Lessons from Smart Manufacturers. Marsh
McLennan. https://www.marshmclennan.com/insights/
publications/2021/may/harnessing-technology-convergence.html

5

Allyn, B. 2021. “People are talking about Web3. Is it the Internetof the future or just a buzzword?” National Public Radio. 21
November 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/11/21/1056988346/
web3-internet-jargon-or-future-vision; Clark, P.A. 2021. “Themetaverse has already arrived. Here’s what that actually means”.
Time. 15 November 2021. https://time.com/6116826/what-isthe-metaverse/; Robertson, A. and Peters, J. 2021. “What is themetaverse, and do I have to care?” The Verge. 4 October 2021.
https://www.theverge.com/22701104/metaverse-explainedfortnite-roblox-facebook-horizon

6

World Economic Forum, in partnership with Marsh & McLennan
Companies, SK Group and Zurich Insurance Group. 2021. The
Global Risks Report 2021. Insight Report. Chapter 5 Imperfect
Markets. Geneva: World Economic Forum. January 2021. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2021

7

Korn, J. 2021. “The Log4j security flaw could impact the entire
internet. Here’s what you should know”. CNN. 15 December
2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/15/tech/log4jvulnerability/index.html

89Reuters Staff. 2021. “SolarWinds hack was ‘largest and mostsophisticated attack’ ever: Microsoft president”. Reuters. 15
February 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cybersolarwinds-microsoft-idUSKBN2AF03R
Burke, S. 2021. “Cyber-crime learnings and predictions for2021”. Counter Terror Business. 15 January 2021. https://counterterrorbusiness.com/features/cyber-crime-learnings-andpredictions-2021

10 Coveware. 2021. “Ransomware attackers down shift to ‘MidGame’ hunting in Q3 2021”. 21 October 2021. https://www.
coveware.com/blog/2021/10/20/ransomware-attacks-continueas-pressure-mounts
11 Help Net Security. 2021. “Malware increased by 358% in
2020”. Help Net Security. 17 February 2021. https://www.
helpnetsecurity.com/2021/02/17/malware-2020/
12 Chainalysis Team. 2021. “Ransomware 2021: Critical mid-year
update”. Insights. 14 May 2021. https://blog.chainalysis.com/
reports/ransomware-update-may-2021

13 Sharton, B.R. 2021. “Ransomware attacks are spiking. Is yourcompany prepared?” Harvard Business Review. 20 May 2021.
https://hbr.org/2021/05/ransomware-attacks-are-spiking-isyour-company-prepared; Steib, M. 2021. “What’s driving thesurge in ransomware attacks?” New York Magazine Intelligencer.
7 September 2021. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/
ransomware-attacks-2021.html; Pupillo, L. et al. 2021. “Artificial
Intelligence and Cyber Security.” CEPS Task Force. May 2021.
https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CEPS-TFRArtificial-Intelligence-and-Cybersecurity.pdf
14 Rosenzweig, P. 2021. “There’s a better way to stop ransomware
attacks”. New York Times (Guest Essay). 31 August 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/opinion/ransomwarebitcoin-cybersecurity.html
15 Davis, E. and Mee, P. 2021. Growing Cyber Threat Demandsa United Response. Marsh McLennan. https://www.
marshmclennan.com/insights/publications/2021/october/growing-cyber-threat-demands-a-united-response.html
16 Accenture. 2021. Threats Unmasked: 2021 Cyber ThreatIntelligence Report. 2021. https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/
PDF-158/Accenture-2021-Cyber-Threat-Intelligence-Report.
pdf; BBC. 2021. “Hacker tries to poison water supply of Floridacity”. BBC. 8 February 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/worldus-canada-55989843; European Insurance and Occupational
Pensions Authority. 2021. “Cyber risks: what is the impact on theinsurance industry?” 15 October 2021. https://www.eiopa.europa.
eu/media/feature-article/cyber-risks-what-impact-insuranceindustry_en; Poulsen, K., McMillan, R. and Evans, M. 2021. “Ahospital hit by hackers, a baby in distress: The case of the firstalleged ransomware death”. Wall Street Journal. 30 September
2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ransomware-hackershospital-first-alleged-death-11633008116; Sganga, N., Herridge,
C. and Bidar, M. 2021. “Foreign hacking group targets hospitals,
clinics with ransomware attacks, says new report”. CBS News. 7
October 2021. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cyberattacksransomware-hacking-hospitals-target-foreign-groups/
17 Accenture. 2021. Op. cit.
18 2021. “Apple sues Israeli firm NSO Group over spyware”. Al
Jazeera. 23 November 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/
news/2021/11/23/apple-sues-israeli-firm-nso-group-overspyware
19 Collins, A. and Ebrahimi, T. 2021. “Risk governance and the riseof deepfakes”. EPFL International Risk Governance Center. 12
May 2021. https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/spotlighton-risk-series/risk-governance-and-the-rise-of-deepfakes/
20 Cyber Outlook Series virtual workshop on survey results held on
31 March 2021 from Geneva by the Centre for Cybersecurity.
21 Herbert Smith Freehills. 2021. “China’s new laws complicate
data transfers”. 24 August 2021. https://hsfnotes.com/
data/2021/08/24/chinas-new-laws-inhibit-data-transfers/
22 Chandrasekhar, C. and Mee, P. 2021. “Why businesses andgovernments must fight cyber threats together”. World Economic
Forum Global Agenda. 3 May 2021. https://www.weforum.org/
agenda/2021/05/cybersecurity-governments-business/
23 Insight. 2021. Cybersecurity at a Crossroads: The Insight 2021
Report. 4 March 2021. https://www.insight.com/content/dam/insight-web/en_US/pdfs/insight/cybersecurity-at-a-crossroads/
cybersecurity-at-a-crossroads--the-insight-2021-report.pdf

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54

24 Cf. Tay, S. 2019. “A serious shortage of cybersecurity experts
could cost companies hundreds of millions of dollars”. CNBC. 5
March 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/06/cybersecurityexpert-shortage-may-cost-companies-hundreds-of-millions.html
25 Bloomberg. 2019. “Coalition Secures $40M in Funding to
Democratize Access to Cybersecurity”. Press Release. 9 May 2019.
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-05-09/coalitionsecures-40m-in-funding-to-democratize-access-to-cybersecurity
26 Boyd, C. 2021. “Zuckerberg’s Metaverse, and the possible
privacy and security concerns”. Malwarebytes Labs. 2 November
2021. https://blog.malwarebytes.com/privacy-2/2021/11/
zuckerbergs-metaverse-and-the-possible-privacy-andsecurity-concerns/; Department of Homeland Security. 2021.
Post-Quantum Cryptography. https://www.dhs.gov/quantum;
Kalmann, A. 2018. “Blog: Cyber Security & the Metaverse”.
IBC365. 22 June 2018. https://www.ibc.org/blog-cyber-securityand-the-metaverse/2904.article
27 Kanterman M. and Naidu N. 2021 “Metaverse may be $800
billion market, next tech platform”. Bloomberg Intelligence. 1
December 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/
metaverse-may-be-800-billion-market-next-tech-platform/
28 Steib. 2021. Op. cit.
29 Murgia M. 2021. “Palantir to reshore all UK data processing from
US before regulatory ‘tsunami’ hits”. 17 December 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/76fa6a3f-a818-4e88-be14-b578ae378d7c
30 Pocock, J. and O’Brien, S. 2021. Cyber Risk: The Emerging
Cyber Threat to Industrial Control Systems. Lloyd’s, CyberCube,and Guy Carpenter. 2021. https://www.marshmclennan.com/
content/dam/mmc-web/insights/publications/2021/august/
The%20Emerging%20Cyber%20Threat%20to%20Industrial%20
Control%20Systems_Final%2016.02.2021.pdf
31 Verizon. 2020. 2020-2021. Cyber-Espionage Report. https://www.verizon.com/business/resources/reports/2020-2021-cyberespionage-report.pdfx
32 Buckley, J. and Conner, S. 2021. “Cyber Threats: Living with
Disruption”. Control Risks and AirMic. 12 October 2021. https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/reports/cyberthreats-living-with-disruption
33 See, e.g., CBS News. 2019. “Doctored Nancy Pelosi video
highlights threat of “deepfake” tech”. 26 May 2019. https://www.
cbsnews.com/news/doctored-nancy-pelosi-video-highlightsthreat-of-deepfake-tech-2019-05-25/
34 Brewster, T. 2021. “Fraudsters cloned company director’s voicein $35 million bank heist, police find”. Forbes. 14 October 2021.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2021/10/14/
huge-bank-fraud-uses-deep-fake-voice-tech-to-stealmillions/?sh=af66cf275591
35 Fisher, M. 2021. “Disinformation for hire, a shadow industry, isquietly booming”. The New York Times. 25 July 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/world/europe/disinformationsocial-media.html; Joyce, S., Kashifuddin, M., Nocera, J. and
Upton, P. 2021. “The disinformation age has arrived. Are you
ready?” PwC. 9 February 2021. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/
tech-effect/cybersecurity/corporate-sector-disinformation.html
36 UK Finance. 2021. Fraud — The Facts 2021. https://www.
ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/Fraud%20The%20Facts%20
2021-%20FINAL.pdf
37 Moon Sehat, C. 2021. “Advancing digital safety: A framework toalign global action”. World Economic Forum. June 2021. https://
www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Advancing_Digital_Safety_A_
Framework_to_Align_Global_Action_2021.pdf; Lalani, F. 2021.

“Risks to kids online are growing. Here’s what we can do”. World
Economic Forum. 13 October 2021. https://www.weforum.org/
agenda/2021/10/overcoming-the-growing-risks-to-kids-online/
38 Braue, D. 2021. “Global cybersecurity spending to exceed $1.75
trillion from 2021-2025”. Cybercrime Magazine. 10 September
2021. https://cybersecurityventures.com/cybersecurityspending-2021-2025/; Meeuwisse, R. 2019. “Is effective
cybersecurity expensive?” Infosecurity Magazine. 10 April
2019. https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/blogs/effectivecybersecurity-expensive
39 Marsh. 2021. Global Insurance Market Index Q3 2021. October
2021. https://www.marsh.com/fr/en/services/insurance-marketand-placement/insights/global_insurance_market_index.html
40 Sabbagh, D. 2021. “Experts say China’s low-level cyberwar is
becoming severe threat”. The Guardian. 23 September 2021.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/23/experts-chinalow-level-cyber-war-severe-threat
41 BBC. 2021. “Aukus: UK, US and Australia launch pact to counter
China”. BBC. 16 September 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/
world-58564837; Kanno-Youngs, Z. and Sanger, D.E. 2021 “U.S.
accuses China of hacking Microsoft”. The New York Times. 26
August 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/us/politics/
microsoft-hacking-china-biden.html?; McWhorter, D. 2021.
“Exposing one of China’s cyber espionage units”. Mandiant.
https://www.mandiant.com/resources/apt1-exposing-one-ofchinas-cyber-espionage-units
42 Kemp, S. 2021. “Digital 2021 April Global Statshot Report”.
Datareportal. 26 April 2021. https://datareportal.com/reports/
digital-2021-april-global-statshot
43 Rodriguez, K. and Opsahl, K. 2020. “Augmented reality musthave augmented privacy”. Electronic Frontier Foundation.
16 October 2020. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/10/
augmented-reality-must-have-augmented-privacy
44 Sultan, A. 2021. “Improving Cybersecurity Awareness inUnderserved Populations”. UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term
Cybersecurity White Paper Series. 2021. https://cltc.berkeley.
edu/underserved_populations/
45 Kite-Powell, J. 2021. “The rise of voice cloning and deepfakesin the disinformation wars”. Forbes. 21 September 2021.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2021/09/21/therise-of-voice-cloning-and-deep-fakes-in-the-disinformationwars/?sh=405859e138e1; Nicolls, D. 2019. “Will deepfake
technology defeat biometric authentication?” Jumio.com. 10
October 2019. https://www.jumio.com/deepfake-technologybiometric-authentication/; Pipikaite, A. 2021. “How to improvesecurity of biometric data”. World Economic Forum Global
Agenda. 2 September 2021. https://www.weforum.org/
agenda/2021/09/untangling-the-benefits-and-risks-of-biometrics/
46 ISACA. 2021. “State of Cybersecurity 2021: Threat Landscape,Security Operations and Cybersecurity Maturity (Part 2)”. ISACA.
2021. https://www.isaca.org/go/state-of-cybersecurity-2021;
Kite-Powell, J. 2020. “Here’s how 2020 created a tipping
point in trust and digital privacy”. Forbes. 27 October 2020.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2020/10/27/
heres-how-2020-created-a-tipping-point-in-trust-and-digitalprivacy/?sh=7fe5bc4a4fc5; Lucas, O. 2021. “Corporate data
responsibility: Bridging the consumer trust gap”. PwC. August2021. https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/bridging-the-trustchasm.html?utm_source=vanity&utm_medium=referral&mid=m00005652&utm_campaign=c-00107353&cid=c-00107353;
Muggah, R. 2021. “Digital privacy comes at a price. Here’s how toprotect it”. World Economic Forum Global Agenda. 8 September
2021. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/09/how-to-protect-

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55

digital-privacy/; NortonLifeLock, Inc. 2021. “Norton Cyber Safety
Insights Report: Global Results”. Norton and The Harris Poll. May
2021. https://now.symassets.com/content/dam/norton/campaign/
NortonReport/2021/2021_NortonLifeLock_Cyber_Safety_Insights_
Report_Global_Results.pdf
47 Statista. Most popular global mobile messenger apps as of
October 2021, based on number of monthly active users,
accessed 14 December 2021. https://www.statista.com/
statistics/258749/most-popular-global-mobile-messenger-apps/
48 Privacy International. 2019. “Most cookie banners are deceptive
and annoying. This is not privacy”. Privacy International. 21 May
2019. https://privacyinternational.org/explainer/2975/mostcookie-banners-are-annoying-and-deceptive-not-consent
49 Kwet, M. 2021. “Digital colonialism: The evolution of US
empire”. TNI’s Future Lab series on Technology, Power andEmancipation organized in collaboration with ROAR magazine.
4 March 2021. https://longreads.tni.org/digital-colonialism-theevolution-of-us-empire; Ryan-Mosley, T. 2021. “Why you should
be more concerned about Internet shutdowns”. MIT Technology
Review. 9 September 2021. https://www.technologyreview.
com/2021/09/09/1035237/internet-shutdowns-censorshipexponential-jigsaw-google/
50 Buckley, J. and Conner, S. 2021. “Cyber threats: Living with
disruption”. Control Risks and AirMic. 12 October 2021. https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/reports/cyberthreats-living-with-disruption; 2021. “Insurance giant AXA victim
of ransomware attack”. Security. 19 May 2021. https://www.
securitymagazine.com/articles/95245-insurance-giant-axa-victimof-ransomware-attack
51 Rappeport, A., Kramer, A.E. and Sanger, D.E. 2021. “The Biden
administration is combating ransomware with a crackdown on
cryptocurrency payments”. The New York Times. 21 September
2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/21/us/politics/treasurydepartment-combating-ransomware-cryptocurrency.html; U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission. 2021. “SEC Announces
Three Actions Charging Deficient Cybersecurity Procedures”.
Press Release. 30 August 2021. https://www.sec.gov/news/
press-release/2021-169
52 Mee, P. and Brandenburg, R. 2020. “After reading, writing
and arithmetic, the 4th ‘r’ of literacy is cyber-risk”. World
Economic Forum Global Agenda. 17 December 2020. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/cyber-risk-cyber-securityeducation
53 Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. 2021. The Biggest
Cloud Security Challenges of 2021. https://www.checkpoint.
com/cyber-hub/cloud-security/what-is-cloud-native-security/thebiggest-cloud-security-challenges-in-2021/

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CHAPTER 4

Barriers to
Migration

200 million
projected climate refugees by 2050

~25%
remittances-to-GDP in El Salvador and Honduras

9%decline in FDI to low-income countries in 2021

4,800
estimated migrants perished or missing in 2021

REUTERS/YARA NARDI

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Nowhere to go
Large parts of the global population face anincreasingly insecure outlook (see Chapter 1).
Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS)
respondents perceive “livelihood crises”
as one of the most potentially severe risks
over the next decade. Millions of people are
already seeking to cross borders in searchof better economic opportunities.
Over the last decade, the numberof international migrants has grownconsistently, from 221 million people in2010 to 281 million in 2020.1 Economic
hardship, climate change, conflict andpolitical instability are forcing millions
more people to leave their homes. These
trends are reflected in the GRPS, where“involuntary migration” is ranked as a top
long-term concern.
Better international collaboration is required
to manage these flows to ensure that
economic migrants are not exposed to
exploitation and that involuntary migrants—
refugees—crossing into other countries
receive the assistance and shelter that theyneed. The scale of the challenge has put
significant pressure on existing frameworks
for migration and refugee protection, suchas the 1951 Refugee Convention and 1967

REUTERS/SAEED ALI ACHAKZAI

Protocol;2 this pressure is compoundedby fractures within the international
community and national interest posturesthat risk limiting global capacity to address
this challenge. Some 60% of GRPS
respondents believe “migration andrefugees” is an area where international
mitigation efforts are falling short (that is,they have either “not started” or are in“early development”).
Economic migration often has considerable
benefits for both origin and destination
countries. It is “the most effective way
to reduce poverty and share prosperity”,
according to a World Bank report,3and can support economic growth byhelping address labour shortages indestination countries. While most crossborder migration takes place between
low- and middle-income countries, 83%
of non-migrant residents in the 22 richest
Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) countries
have experienced net economic gains
from the influx of migrants.4 On the other
hand, some project-based migration
undertakings to enhance cross-borderinfrastructure have had negative impacts
in destination countries, where the

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tendency to employ workers from origin
countries has reduced opportunities
for income and skills transfer for native,
destination-country workers.5
Refugees can also ultimately make apositive contribution to the economies ofdestination countries, depending partly ona balanced intake across countries thathave the capacity to take them in. Theirability to contribute often depends onwhether they receive support to deal withthe aftereffects of forced displacement—
for example, counselling for post-traumaticstress, which is not normally afforded toeconomic migrants. Instead, millions ofrefugees remain crowded in camps on
the fringes of society—often in countries
in the Global South that do not have theeconomic capacity to absorb them.
However, national-level barriers to the
movement of people are increasing.
Disillusionment with globalization has
fuelled nativist discourses and national
interest policies in many destination
countries in recent years, and COVID-19
has accelerated this trend. An IPSOS–World Economic Forum Survey from April
2021 found that positive views towards
globalization fell during the pandemic by anaverage of 10 percentage points across

REUTERS/BAZ RATNER

25 countries.6 Many governments,
reflecting popular attitudes, have expressed
concern about pressures on education andhealthcare services, housing capacity andlocal employment; for others, integration
concerns have been a priority.
Higher barriers to both orderly anddisorderly migration elevate the risk offorgoing potential pathways to restoring
livelihoods, closing income and labour gaps
and maintaining political stability. Instead,the clash between heightened insecurity
in origin countries and migration barriers indestination countries will exacerbate global
divergence (see Chapter 1), aggravating
tensions within and between countries that
could complicate an equitable recovery andlead to ever more desperate measures by
those who feel compelled to move.

Growing insecurity inorigin countries
Movement restrictions related to COVID-19
interrupted some migration flows;7 as theserestrictions are lifted, divergent economic
recoveries will likely amplify pressures tomigrate that have been restrained throughthe pandemic.8 Many origin countries—
mostly less advanced and less vaccinated

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ones (see Chapter 1)—face highly insecure
economic outlooks as growth stagnates,
public finances continue to be stretchedand pandemic-related stimuli—on which
vulnerable groups have depended—are
scaled back.9 Employment in thesecountries may also decline if the pandemic
persists, exacerbated by a worldwide
trend for workplace automation, re-shoringbusiness operations and shortening
supply chains that may affect foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows, exports andgrowth.10 In many lower-income countries,
where informal work is prevalent, informal
migrant workers are particularly exposed tothe pandemic’s economic fallout becauseof their low income and lack of access tostate support.11
Climate change is a key driver of migration.
It displaces people directly because ofnatural disasters and it can displacethem indirectly by encouraging economic
migration from weakening economies
vulnerable to the adverse impacts ofclimate change. The inability to adapt to

GETTY/MARC GUITARD

Climate change, conflict andpolitical instability will force
millions to leave their homes
or mitigate the impacts of climate change
threaten to make certain densely populatedparts of the world uninhabitable.12 Morefrequent and extreme weather events—
including fires, floods and droughts—could
displace more than 200 million people by
2050.13 Water scarcity is a key driver of
migration because of its impact on healthand livelihoods as well as the conflicts
it risks triggering.14 GRPS respondents
rated “extreme weather” and “climate
action failure” as strong aggravators of“involuntary migration”. Densely populated
countries that are highly dependent on
agriculture—such as India, Nigeria, Pakistan
and the Philippines15—are especiallyvulnerable to climate insecurity. Worsening
extreme weather will trigger large-scalemigration and displacement, but the

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FIGURE 4.1

Refugees, Asylum-Seekers and Venezuelans Displaced Abroad,
2000–2020 (Millions)
Millions
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000

2002

Refugees under
UNHCR's mandate

2004

2006

2008

Palestinian refugees under
UNRWA’s manadate

2010

2012

Asylum-seekers

2014

2016

2018

2020

Venezuelans displacedabroadSource: Data from UNHCR, “Refugee Data Finder”. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=rVpdj6, accessed 1 December 2021.
Note: UNHCR = United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; UNRWA = United Nations Relief and Works Agency.

international community’s reluctanceto recognize “climate refugees” and“environmental migrants” is widening
their legal protection gap.16 Legislativeand governance frameworks remain illequipped to protect millions at risk ofdisplacement who do not qualify as
traditional refugees.17 These governancevoids could leave governments blindsided
in the event of a sudden, high-impact
environmental shock. Moreover, the failure
to achieve inclusive transitions to net
zero economies (see Chapter 2)
could worsen economic insecurity forbusinesses and households in thoseorigin countries left behind.
Conflict and political insecurity are also
major drivers of involuntary migration. In
2020, there were over 34 million people
displaced abroad globally from conflictalone—a historical high (see Figure 4.1)—
mostly due to long-standing conflicts andpolitical turmoil in Afghanistan, Myanmar,
South Sudan, Syria and Venezuela,18 andto expanding conflicts within and beyond
the borders of Ethiopia.19 According to
the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS),“involuntary migration” is a top short-term
threat in Armenia, Ukraine and Venezuela,
which have experienced conflict andpolitical instability.20 Political turmoil
may well worsen in the aftermath of the
COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the
reduction of international security forcesfrom conflict zones such as Afghanistan
and the Sahel region of Africa. Moreover,some political leaders have reacted
to economic crises and social unrestwith authoritarianism, discriminatory
policies, or extremist discourses that put
ethnic or religious minorities at risk ofmarginalization or violence.

National-level barriers to
the movement of people
are increasing
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FIGURE 4.2

Developing Countries’ Financing Loss versus GDP, 2020
(US$ billions)
Total Financing Loss, US$700 billion

Cameroon$40

Ethiopia
$108

Sudan
$26

Senegal$25

Tanzania$62
ZambiaZimbabwe

Mozambique

UgandaGuineaMalawiTajikistan
Madagascar

RwandaCongo DR
Togo
Nepal

Burkina
Faso

Benin

Haiti

Mali

Myanmar$76

Afghanistan$20

KyrgyzRepublic

Sierra Burundi
Leone

The Gambia

Lesotho
Niger

Chad
Somalia

Liberia
Central African Republic

GuineaBissau
Comoros
Timor-Leste

Source: Data from OECD. Global Outlook on Financing for Sustainable Development 2021. https://www.oecd.org/development/global-outlook-onfinancing-for-sustainable-development-2021-e3c30a9a-en.htm; World Bank Open Data, “GDP (current US$)” and “GDP per capita (current US$)”.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, accessed 1 December 2021.

Global cooperation to resolve or mitigate
ongoing humanitarian crises is being
challenged by financial pressures inadvanced economies, greater focus ondomestic priorities and a more tense
geopolitical context (see Chapter 1).
Already, the pandemic has diminishedexternal financing to developing countries
by US$700 billion—equivalent to the
combined GDPs of 36 of the world’s
poorest economies (see Figure 4.2).21

Mobility barriers indestination countries
There are three potential barriers to crossborder migration: post-pandemic effects on
international mobility, future employment
trends and increased national interest
postures of many countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic
ramifications have emboldened somegroups and political leaders to adopt
more hostile postures against migration,
foreigners or communities with foreign roots.
Restrictions on international movement as aresult of the pandemic remained in place in
32 countries at the time of writing.22 These
include critical destination and corridor
countries such as China, India, Russia, theUnited Arab Emirates and the United States.
Future easing of restrictions will depend on
the progress of vaccination and the evolutionof COVID-19, but persistent vaccination
gaps globally, and particularly within origin
countries, means international mobility willcontinue to be restricted for many.
The pandemic may also narrow future
employment opportunities for migrant
workers in destination countries, both

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because of the economic disruption it
created and because of the accelerating
automation and digitalization of tasks andservices. The World Economic Forum’s
Future of Jobs Report found that 50% of
employers globally planned to automate
tasks in response to COVID-19, often
in sectors that have relied on migrant
workers.23 The report also estimatesthat 85 million jobs will be destroyed byautomation by 2025, and although 97
million new jobs will emerge, these jobs
may not necessarily match the skillsets
of many migrants.24 The short-term
economic rebound from the pandemic has
resulted in a surge in hiring in some key
sectors for migrants such as hospitality
and healthcare, but in the long-term,
new consumption patterns in destination
countries—such as more e-commerce
and less business travel—are expected
to shrink demand for jobs in migrant-

intensive industries such as agriculture,
food services and warehousing.25
National interest postures have also
become more entrenched across bothdeveloping and advanced economies. For
example, Chile and Peru have reframed
their migration governance mechanisms,
which complicates access for migrant andrefugee populations to essential financial
and healthcare services.26 Meanwhile,
restrictive policies originally grounded inpublic health concerns have not beenrolled back, as indicated by sustained
declines in issued visas for the United
Kingdom and the perpetuation of
Title 42 expulsions at the US border.27
Other destination countries have sought
to harden borders to prevent the arrivalof involuntary migrants, as evidenced in
fresh ambitions to build walls in Europe
and Turkey.28

Consequences
Barriers to orderly migration could havenegative global consequences, suchas widening labour gaps and income
disparity, triggering or worsening
humanitarian crises and increasingsocietal polarization.
Economic consequences. The economic
rebound from COVID-19 has createdlabour shortages in specific industries—
albeit some may be temporary—bydisrupting market dynamics and supply
chains and prompting workers to reevaluate their personal and career choices.
At the time of writing, the United States
faced over 11 million unfilled jobs ingeneral and the European Union had
a deficit of 400,000 drivers just in thetrucking industry.29 The hospitality sector,
one of the most severely affected by the
pandemic, is especially vulnerable tolong-term labour shortages that migration
could close. In the United States, asurvey found that over 50% of former
hospitality employees would not return totheir previous jobs, and 60% of workers
seeking employment would not consider
the hospitality sector.30

A decrease in migrant employment could
weaken the global flow of remittancessuch that growth in income fails to keep
pace with inflation, thereby limiting social
mobility in origin countries. Remittances
also support private consumption,savings and investment in origin countries
and can equate to a significant proportionof GDP (from nearly one-fourth of GDP
in El Salvador and Honduras to over
one-third in Somalia).31 They proved
to be resilient through the pandemic,
falling by 2% annually in low- andmiddle-income countries in 202032—
far less than the 30% drop in FDI33—
and quickly recovering to rise by 7.3%
in 2021.34 Combined with stagnant
tourism and pressures on exports,35
a fall in remittances would weaken
another important source of financing formany developing countries.

Businesses risk worker
deficits and demand shocks
from constrained migration
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GETTY/PAUL RATJE

Humanitarian consequences.
Humanitarian crises could worsen wherebarriers to exit prevent vulnerable groups
from escaping persecution or violence. In
some fragile states, governments could
block their citizens’ departure to halt
depopulation as well as capital flight. In
Afghanistan and Myanmar, governments
have reportedly impeded citizens fromleaving the country.36 Blocking emigration
prevents people from seeking more secure
livelihoods and diasporas from reuniting
with families. It can exacerbate societal
fractures by closing a mechanism to reducepoverty and narrow inequality, fuelling
citizens’ animosity towards government
and potentially empowering criminal oreven terrorist groups that offer hope todisaffected individuals.
More limited international mobility
opportunities will push migrants to embark
on more perilous journeys and risk
worsening or triggering humanitarian crises
in neighbouring and corridor countries.
One such case is the Syrian crisis, whichby 2021 had already displaced nearly 6
million Syrians abroad—mostly to Turkey,
Lebanon and Jordan—but could further
deteriorate.37 An estimated 700,000 Central
American migrants transited throughMexico in 2021—a rapid return to prepandemic levels38—and those unable toenter the United States are unlikely to returnto their origin countries.39 At one point,
15,000 Central American refugees were
stranded for days in precarious conditions
under a bridge on the Mexico-US border.40
According to the EOS, “involuntary
migration” is a top short-term threat in
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras
and Nicaragua.
These perilous journeys can also lead to
tragic loss of life, such as when people
become lost at sea or face harsh weather
while stuck in borderlands.41 At the timeof writing, nearly 4,800 migrants were
estimated to have perished or gone missing
in 2021, most of them trying to reach
Europe from Africa.42 Although there isworldwide consensus on the urgent need tocombat human trafficking, the International
Organization for Migration estimates thatorganized human-trafficking groups operatein every country.43
Geopolitical consequences. Migrationpressures could exacerbate geopoliticaltensions and even fuel cross-borderconflicts. For example, in the Middle
East, half a million Afghans are expected

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to take increasingly drastic measures tocircumvent migration restrictions and flee
to neighbouring countries44—including
Iran, which has enlarged its militarypresence along the border to deter apotential Taliban incursion.45 Managementof migration flows has become a tense
issue between Turkey, which hosts some
3.6 million Syrian refugees,46 and theEuropean Union.
Geopolitical rifts could also worsen—
and new ones emerge—if origin country
migration is increasingly used as ageopolitical instrument. The crossing of
migrants from Morocco into the Spanish
enclave of Ceuta aggravated tensions
that originated in the European Union’slack of support for Morocco’s claims over
the Western Sahara.47 Political tensions
between Belarus and the European
Union escalated considerably as Belarus
encouraged travel from the Middle East,
moved migrants to camps along its borderwith Poland and pushed them to crossover, prompting Poland to deploy troops
in response.48 In such cases, destinationcountry governments seeking to comply
with international laws on the treatmentof refugees—thereby preserving their

GETTY

Geopolitical rifts could
worsen if migration is used asa geopolitical instrument
reputation among the global community inthe spheres of global development
and human rights—will have to carefully
manage diplomatic relationships withneighbours to arrive at a way forward while
responding to immigrant scepticism among
a significant proportion of their populations.

Consequences forstakeholders
People, governments and businesses inorigin and destination countries face distinct
challenges from divergent perspectives
on migration. But stakeholders in both
geographies also face common challenges:
social unrest if migration is used todiscriminate against and marginalize certain
groups; hardening political contexts if
governments exploit migration challenges
to justify more control over citizens andmarkets; and some negative economic

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consequences if legitimate diaspora
networks in destination countries createdby migration are undermined.
Left alone: Consequences for people
By 2020, there were more than 4 million
stateless persons in the world, the highest
number in a decade;49 but this number
risks increasing due to heightened social
polarization and strained government
capacity. Limited options for migrants togain admittance to destination countries
upon entry—even temporarily—could
be compounded by corridor countries
refusing to allow them to remain within
their borders. People in this situation—who
are unwilling or unable to return home
and whose governments do not takeresponsibility for their welfare—are at riskof being stranded in irregular settlements
or facilities with minimal access to basic
goods and services, financial support or
diplomatic assistance. Others unable toescape insecurity are at risk of violenceor falling prey to extremist ideologies andorganizations. Refugees would face poor
conditions and even violence in transit andin camps if international cooperation to
manage involuntary migration is lacking.
Even more economic migrants could
resort to desperate measures and become

vulnerable to exploitation by humansmuggling cartels.
In destination countries, growing
extremism could create greater challenges
for migrants trying to assimilate.50
Citizens could also see their civil liberties
violated by governments using migration
management to justify widespread
population surveillance and intrusions on
personal information.
Last resort: Consequencesfor governments
Remittances improve living standards inorigin countries and provide an importantsource of financing.51 Without them,governments in origin countries whose
economic stability hinges on remittances
may face severe complications in theirability to govern—some could be at riskof degenerating into failed states.
Destination-country governments also
face risks domestically from failing toaddress citizens’ concerns with migration.
Adopting stricter migration measures could
encounter some popular backlash as
pro-migration advocates make their voices
heard on the streets and online, while failingto effectively manage inflows risks stoking
the growth of populism.

Shocks to Reflect Upon

Not in My Country

Show Me the Money

Too Little, Too Late

What if xenophobic politicalparties in federal democracies
start winning more elections andsecuring leadership positions indestination-country border orsanctuary towns? What if theyignore federal law and start taking
border protection or mobility
policies into their own hands,
facilitating vigilante behaviour?

What if stricter migration policies
lead to more burdensome
regulation, reduced competitionand higher fees in remittanceservices? What if traditional
remittance channels are choked
off and cryptocurrencies become
the prevalent method for sending
remittances, exposing digitallyinsecure migrants to cybertheft?

What if stalled or delayed climate
action means that ecosystems
reach their tipping points suddenly
and unexpectedly, acceleratingclimate migration into neighbouring
countries as droughts, floods
and resource scarcity worsen?

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GETTY/JIM WATSON

Little room: Consequences
for businesses
Businesses in destination countries are
at risk from a global worker deficit anddemand-side shocks that could result fromconstrained migration. Migrant workers
comprise an attractive consumer groupthat can contribute to developing domestic
markets and support international
expansion by boosting brand awarenessin their home countries. But businesses
perceived to favour stricter foreign labour
requirements, or that are seen as not
making enough effort to support theirmigrant staff, could face a public backlashfrom migrant communities and theirsupporters. On the other hand, businesses
that welcome migrant workers with a viewto low-cost labour may expose themselves
to union pushback.

Towards two-way bridges
At a time of global divergence, migration
could foster economic integration.
International mobility could narrowinequality within and between countries bymatching job seekers in origin countries
with unfulfilled vacancies abroad in growthindustries—such as healthcare, renewableenergy and transportation.52

prompt closer political ties between
countries and encourage collaboration on
issues of mutual concern such as sharedinfrastructure for cross-border financial
flows. The global community could also build
goodwill across geopolitical divisions bystrengthening collaboration mechanisms forrefugee intake.

More efficient and orderly channels for
migration—including coherent legal andpolicy frameworks, cross-border cooperation
and alignment and better enforcement
against smuggling operations—could

Migration offers opportunities but alsoentails challenges for origin, corridor anddestination countries. Leaders have thechance to jointly identify where new bridges
can be built for mutual benefit.

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Endnotes
1

United Nations Population Division, “International Migrant Stock”.
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/internationalmigrant-stock, accessed 17 December 2021

2

UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). 1951.
“The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its
1967 Protocol”. UNHCR. 25 July 1951. https://www.unhcr.org/
about-us/background/4ec262df9/1951-convention-relating-statusrefugees-its-1967-protocol.html

3World Bank. 2018. Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration andLabor Markets. Policy Research Report. World Bank Group. 15
June 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/
moving-for-prosperity

4

Aubry, A., Burzyński, M. and Docquier, F. 2016. “The welfare impact
of global migration in OECD countries”. Journal of International
Economics, Volume 101. July 2016. https://www.sciencedirect.
com/science/article/abs/pii/S002219961630040X

5

Hillman, J. and Tippett, A. 2021. “Who built that? Labor and theBelt and Road Initiative”. Council on Foreign Relations. 6 July 2021.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/who-built-labor-and-belt-and-road-initiative

6

7

8

9

IPSOS. 2021. “World Opinion on Globalization and International
Trade in 2021”. Ipsos Global Advisor 25-Country Survey for theWorld Economic Forum. IPSOS. August 2021. https://www.ipsos.
com/en/sentiment-about-globalization-cooler-pandemic-acrossworld
International Organization for Migration. 2021. Global Mobility
Restriction Overview. Weekly Update. IOM. 4 October 2021.
https://migration.iom.int/reports/covid-19-travel-restrictions-output%E2%80%94-4-october-2021?close=true
International Centre for Migration Policy Development. 2021.
“ICMPD migration outlook 2021. Seven things to look out for in2021”. ICMPD. 26 January 2021. https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/50542/file/ICMPD_Migration_Outlook_2021_final.pdf
IMF (International Monetary Fund). “Policy Responses to COVID-19”.
Policy Tracker. https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/
Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#B, accessed 3 December 2021.

10 Mercer. 2021. “Win with empathy. Global Talent Trends 20202021”. 8 February 2021. https://www.mercer.com/our-thinking/career/global-talent-hr-trends.html; Milne, R. and Dempsey, H.
2021. “Suez blockage will accelerate global supply chain shift, says
Maersk chief”. Financial Times. 29 March 2021. https://www.ft.com/
content/e9452046-e88e-459a-9c54-341c85f3cb0d; Reinsch, W.A.,
Benson, E., Lim, J., Hokayem, A. and Mortensen, S. 2021. The
Manufacturer’s Dilemma: Reshoring and Resiliency in a Pandemic
World. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.
csis.org/analysis/manufacturers-dilemma-reshoring-and-resiliencypandemic-world; World Economic Forum. 2020. The Future of Jobs
Report 2020. October 2020. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/
WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2020.pdf
11 Fleming, S. 2020. “This is how COVID-19 is affecting informal
workers”. World Economic Forum. 29 July 2020. https://www.
weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/coronavirus-impact-informalworkers-world-bank/
12 World Economic Forum, in partnership with Marsh & McLennan
Companies and Zurich Insurance Group. 2020. The Global Risks
Report 2020. Insight Report. Chapter 3 A Decade Left. Geneva:
World Economic Forum. January 2020. https://www.weforum.org/
reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

13 World Bank. 2021. Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate
Migration. Report. Open Knowledge Repository. World Bank
Group. September 2021. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/
handle/10986/36248
14 UNHCR. 2021. Global Report 2020. UNHCR. 2020. https://www.
unhcr.org/flagship-reports/globalreport/; Rachman, G. 2021.
“The threat of conflict over water is growing”. Financial Times. 1
November 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/ b29578f1-c05f4374-bbb4-68485ef6dbf7
15 World Bank Open Data. “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value
added (% of GDP)”. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.
TOTL.ZS, accessed 2 December 2021.
16 Rameez Raza, M. and Shekhar, R. 2020. “Climate Crisis, Migration
and Refugees: Bridging the Legal Protection Gap for a Sustainable
Future”. RLI Blog on Refugee Law and Forced Migration. Schoolof Advanced Study, University of London. 29 July 2020. https://rli.
blogs.sas.ac.uk/2020/07/29/climate-crisis-migration-and-refugeesbridging-the-legal-protection-gap-for-a-sustainable-future/
17 Apap, J. and Perron de Revel, C. 2021. “The concept of ‘climate
refugee’. Towards a possible definition.” Briefing. European
Parliamentary Research Service. October 2021. https://www.
europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/698753/EPRS_
BRI(2021)698753_EN.pdf
18 UNHCR. 2021. Global Trends in Forced Displacement – 2020.
UNHCR. 18 June 2021. https://www.unhcr.org/60b638e37/unhcrglobal-trends-2020
19 UNHCR. 2021. “Eritrean refugees in Tigray caught up in conflict”.
Press Briefing. 27 July 2021. https://www.unhcr.org/news/
briefing/2021/7/60ffc4d44/eritrean-refugees-tigray-caught-conflict.html
20 Council on Foreign Relations. 2021. “Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict”
and “Conflict in Ukraine”. Global Conflict Tracker. https://www.cfr.org/
global-conflict-tracker/?category=us, accessed 3 December 2021.
21 OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment). 2021. Global Outlook on Financing for Sustainable
Development 2021: A New Way to Invest for People and Planet.
OECD. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/e3c30a9a-en/1/3/1/
index.html?itemId=/content/publication/e3c30a9a-en&_
csp_=8cdd8991f371dde0be547aab4112527a&itemIGO=
oecd&itemContentType=book; World Bank Open Data. “GDP(current US$)” and “GDP per capita (current US$)”. https://data.
worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD and https://data.
worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=false, accessed 1 December 2021.
22 Blavatnik School of Government. “Covid-19 Government Response
Tracker”. University of Oxford. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/
research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker, accessed
7 December 2021.
23 World Economic Forum. 2020. The Future of Jobs Report 2020.
October 2020. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_
Jobs_2020.pdf
24 Ibid.
25 McKinsey Global Institute. 2021. The Future of Work after
COVID-19. Report. McKinsey & Company. 18 February 2021.
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/thefuture-of-work-after-covid-19

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68

26 Freier, L.F. and Vera Espinoza, M., 2021. “COVID-19 andimmigrants’ increased exclusion: The politics of immigrant integrationin Chile and Peru”. Frontiers in Human Dynamics 3: 6. https://www.
frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fhumd.2021.606871/full
27 Constantino, A. K. 2021. “U.S. defends expulsion of undocumented
migrants under health policy, even as it eases border restrictions
for travelers with visas”. CNBC. 13 October 2021. https://www.
cnbc.com/2021/10/13/us-defends-expelling-migrants-as-canadamexico-border-restrictions-ease.html; GOV.UK. “Summary of latest
statistics. Immigration statistics, year ending June 2021”. Cabinet
Office Government Digital Service. https://www.gov.uk/government/
statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2021/summary-oflatest-statistics, accessed 21 December 2021; Somerville, W. andWalsh, P.W. 2021. “United Kingdom’s decades-long immigration shiftinterrupted by Brexit and the pandemic”. Migration Policy Institute. 19
August 2021. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/united-kingdomshift-immigration-interrupted-brexit-pandemic; US Customs and Border
Protection. “Nationwide Enforcement Encounters: Title 8 Enforcement
Actions and Title 42 Expulsions 2022”. CBP Enforcement Statistics.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/title8-and-title-42-statistics, accessed 21 December 2021.
28 Follain, J. 2021. “EU should pay for walls against migrants, 12
nations tell bloc”. Bloomberg. 8 October 2021. https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/eu-should-pay-forwalls-against-migrants-12-nations-tell-bloc; Yackley, A. J. 2021.
“The Turkish wall built to keep out refugees from Afghanistan”.
Financial Times. 15 September 2021. https://www.ft.com/
content/49d85b11-4bbe-4518-b6d8-d532e30c373c
29 Arnold, M. and Vladkov, A. 2021. “Europe’s trucker shortage
becoming ‘extremely dangerous’”. Financial Times. 13 October
2021. https://www.ft.com/content/e8ca2a08-308c-4324-8ed2d788b074aa6c; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2021. “Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Summary”. Economic News Release. USBLS. 8
December 2021. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
30 Joblist. 2021. “Q2 2021 United States job market report”. Job
Market Reports. Joblist. 8 July 2021. https://www.joblist.com/jobsreports/q2-2021-united-states-job-market-report
31 World Bank Open Data. “Personal remittances, received (% ofGDP)”. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.
ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true, accessed 14 December 2021
32 World Bank. 2021. “Defying Predictions, Remittance Flows Remain
Strong During COVID-19 Crisis”. Press Release. World Bank
Group. 12 May 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pressrelease/2021/05/12/defying-predictions-remittance-flows-remainstrong-during-covid-19-crisis
33 Ibid.
34 Dilip, R. 2021. “Global Remittance Flows in 2021: A Year of
Recovery and Surprises”. World Bank Blogs. World Bank Group. 17
November 2021. https://blogs.worldbank.org/peoplemove/globalremittance-flows-2021-year-recovery-and-surprises
35 United Nations World Tourism Organization. 2021. “Global tourism
sees upturn in Q3 but recovery remains fragile”. UNWTO. 28
November 2021. https://www.unwto.org/taxonomy/term/347;
World Bank Open Data. “Exports of goods and services (% ofGDP) - Low & middle income”. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=XO, accessed 2 December 2021.
36 Gannon, K. 2021. “Taliban stop planes of evacuees from leaving but
unclear why”. AP News. 5 September 2021. https://apnews.com/
article/middle-east-religion-taliban-dbe38a9a3c0b33f3532aac5ff
1b50078; Myanmar Now. “Workers trying to leave Myanmar turned
away at airports after junta tightens rules”. Myanmar Now. 21 October
2021. https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/workers-trying-toleave-myanmar-turned-away-at-airports-after-junta-tightens-rules

37 UNHCR. 2021. Operational Data Portal. Refugee Situations.
“Syria Refugee Regional Response”. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/
situations/syria, accessed 6 January 2022.
38 Congressional Research Service. 2021. “Central American
migration: Root causes and U.S. policy”. In Focus. 27 October
2021. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF11151.pdf
39 NPR (National Public Radio). 2021. “How the southern U.S. borderhas become a nearly constant humanitarian crisis”. Interview with
Alicia Schmidt Camacho in “All Things Considered”. NPR. 24
September 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/09/24/1040550699/
how-the-southern-u-s-border-has-become-a-nearly-constanthumanitarian-crisis
40 Gonzalez, V. and Spagat, E. 2021. “Inside Biden’s border plans: How
optimism turned to chaos”. AP News. 3 November 2021. https://
apnews.com/article/immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-donaldtrump-joe-biden-health-af698c3434cc31dfbce43a66fbf43b49
41 ECRE (European Council on Refugees and Exiles). 2020. “Bosnia
and Herzegovina: Snowfall increases hardships of people stuck in
Europe’s borderlands”. Ecre News. 11 December 2020. https://ecre.org/bosnia-and-herzegovina-snowfall-increases-hardships-ofpeople-stuck-in-europes-borderlands/; UN News. 2021. “Drowningof 27 migrants in English Channel is worst disaster on record:
IOM”. United Nations. 25 November 2021. https://news.un.org/en/
story/2021/11/1106562
42 Missing Migrants Project. “Dead and Missing by Year”. IOM. https://
missingmigrants.iom.int/data, accessed 23 December 2021.
43 International Organization for Migration. 2021. World Migration Report
2022. IOM. https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/
44 UNHCR. 2021. “Afghanistan Situation Regional Refugee
Preparedness and Response Plan”. Operational Data Portal.
UNHCR. 27 August 2021. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/
details/88385
45 Nadimi, F. 2021. “Iran sets its eyes on Afghanistan”. Policy Analysis.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 19 July 2021. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iran-sets-its-eyesafghanistan
46 UNHCR. 2021. “Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Turkey”. UNHCR.
https://www.unhcr.org/tr/en/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-turkey
47 Casey, N. and Bautista, J. 2021. “‘Come on in, boys’: A wave of
the hand sets off Spain-Morocco migrant fight”. New York Times. 2
June 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/world/europe/
spain-ceuta-migrants-morocco.html; Torreblanca, J. I. 2021. “Thistime is different: Spain, Morocco, and weaponised migration”.
Commentary. European Council on Foreign Relations. 26 May 2021.
https://ecfr.eu/article/this-time-is-different-spain-morocco-andweaponised-migration/
48 Emmott, R. 2020. “EU says Lukashenko is not legitimate Belarus
president”. Reuters. 24 September 2020. https://www.reuters.com/
article/us-belarus-election-eu-idUSKCN26F0ZE; Pempel, K. andKiselyova, M. 2021. “‘Go through. Go,’ Lukashenko tells migrants at
Polish border”. Reuters. 26 November 2021. https://www.reuters.
com/world/europe/lukashenko-tells-migrants-belarus-polandborder-he-wont-make-them-go-home-2021-11-26/
49 UNHCR. 2021. “Global Trends in Forced Displacement – 2020”. Op. cit.
50 International Organization for Migration. 2019. World Migration
Report 2020. IOM. 2019. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/
pdf/wmr_2020.pdf
51 World Bank. 2018. Op. cit.
52 McKinsey Global Institute. 2021. Op. cit.

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CHAPTER 5

Crowding andCompetitionin Space
5
number of new government-developed spacestations by 2030

70,000estimated number of satellites to launch incoming decades

28
nations with domestic space regulation

1 million
estimated number of debris pieces 1 centimetre
and larger

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70

Space is getting busier
Humans have been inspired by space
exploration for decades but growing
commercial and geopolitical interests are
increasingly influencing this frontier. While
early space activity was conducted or
funded by the public sector, the last decade
has seen growing private investment. New
commercial entrants are disrupting traditional
incumbents’ control in delivering satellite
services, especially in internet-related
communications or launch services. Somegovernments are encouraging private space
activity to further national “territorial” claims
or to foster the development of high-valuejobs, especially in the zone of Low Earth
Orbit (LEO) or Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), as
well as enhancing their military or defenceoriented presence.* Increased exploitationof these orbits carries the risk of congestion,
an increase in debris and the possibility ofcollisions in a realm with few governancestructures to mitigate new threats.

A LEO/MEO space race
The traditional Geostationary Orbit (GEO)
commercial satellite market, which has
dominated the communications sector
for decades, is now losing commercial
value because of competition from new
players seeking to provide services from
LEO or MEO. More recently, in the last
decade, the financing of new applications
for space-based initiatives has grown
fast: businesses, start-ups and research
entities are proliferating, raising moneyin the billions, and thereby driving down
the cost of launch systems, particularly inLEO (see Figure 5.1).1 Lower costs bringmore opportunity for a greater diversity ofactors to launch constellations of smaller
satellites. With this more cost-effective
access to space, attention is increasingly
shifting to new opportunities in areas suchas hyperspectral remote sensing, energy* Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
is generally considered
to encompass Earthcentred orbits with analtitude of 2,000 kilometres(1,200 miles) or less. The
Geostationary Orbit (GEO)
encompasses a higheraltitude orbit, typically at analtitude of 35,000 kilometresabove the Earth’s equator
while Medium Earth Orbit(MEO) comprises a rangeof orbits between LEO
and GEO.

FIGURE 5.1

Space Investment: Equity Capital by Investor Type (US$ Billions)$bn

Number of rounds

50

600

40

30
400
20

10

0

200

2012

2013

Angel Individual

2014

2015

Venture Capital

2016

2017

2018

2019

Corporate

Other

Number of rounds

2020

2021

Source: Space Capital. Q3 2021. https://app.powerbi.com/
view?r=eyJrIjoiNGY4MWI4OWEtMjNmZS00OTM3LWE5M2QtYTgxZTdjODk3YTllIiwidCI6IjYzMDZkMTJjLTEwODMtNGNhOS04Yjk2LTdjYzM3ODcwMWIzMiIsImMiOjN9The Global Risks Report 202271

generation, manufacturing, mining andtourism.2 However, the largest growth isstill expected to come from industries thatare already expanding digital connectivity
on Earth, such as direct-to-consumer
broadband access.3

National ambitions
Space programmes are still widely seen
as a sign of national prestige, as they
project geopolitical and military power aswell as have scientific and commercial
significance. Powers such as China,
Europe (EU and ESA), France, Germany,
India, Japan, NATO, Russia, the United
Kingdom and the United States havepublicly announced space forces andcontinue to build space infrastructure,with plans for at least five new spacestations by 2030 in the works.4 The firstcommercial space station is also slated forcompletion in the next decade.5 Next-step
deep space exploration projects are underdevelopment, such as the United States–
led Artemis programme—which aims
to reopen exploration of the Moon andeventually develop outposts on Mars and

REUTERS/ALY SONG

Businesses, start-ups
and research entities
are proliferating
asteroids.6 In addition, new space-faring
powers will emerge as more economies
begin to see opportunities to expand both
geopolitical and commercial influence inthis arena. Among countries that haveexpressed interest are Argentina, Brazil,
and Mexico in Latin America; Egypt, Iran,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa andthe United Arab Emirates in Africa andthe Middle East; and Australia, Indonesia,
Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea andVietnam in the Asia-Pacific region.7
Alongside new programme development,
the critical infrastructure on which many
civil and commercial entities rely must
be maintained and secured.8 Satellites
in LEO as well as in MEO and GEO areused for multiple purposes that include
climate and natural resource monitoring,broadband internet, and radio andtelevision broadcasting, as well as position,

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navigation and timing services.9 While
this infrastructure will continue to remainvital for governments, businesses andsocieties, it is also creating opportunities fornations with an advanced space industry,
supported by national-level regulation, tostake claims to specific orbital sectors by
virtue of first-mover advantage.10 Finally,
space will continue to be of critical militaryimportance: armed forces have long reliedon space-based or space-supported
technologies—including Global Positioning
System (GPS) for navigation, dedicatedmilitary satellite-based communications forsecure digital connectivity and spy satellites
for intelligence—making such systems
tempting military targets and spurring theneed for enhanced defensive measures.11

Consequences
A greater number and diversity of actors
operating in space could generate new orexacerbate old frictions if not responsibly
managed. The trend in commercial,civil and military sectors is to replace
traditionally large and expensive single
geostationary satellite systems witha more distributed system of multiple
smaller satellites in LEO. Approximately
11,000 satellites have been launchedsince Sputnik 1 in 1957, but 70,000 more
could enter orbit in the coming decades if
proposed plans play out.12 The vast majorityof these new planned and approved
satellites will be launched by a handful of
operators that will have increasing influence
over the regulatory landscape.
Once in orbit, and unless actively
decommissioned, many of these satellites
could remain in space for hundreds ofyears.13 Smaller, low-cost satellites are also
proliferating because of lower costs andfewer barriers to entry.14 While the risk is still
relatively low, an increase in the number ofsatellites also increases the opportunity forcollisions, or, at the least, a need to engage
in emergency manoeuvres to avoid contact.
Collisions could hinder future spacedevelopment or aggravate international
tensions. This is because when objects
in space collide, they may break up andproduce debris that—even at sizes of
1 to 5 centimetres in diameter—could
cause severe damage.15 For example,
the International Space Station (ISS) was
damaged in May 2021 when a pieceof debris penetrated its robotic arm.16
Such strikes have been documented for
decades, but they may become more

frequent. One theory, known as the"Kessler Effect" (see Box 5.1), posits thepotential consequences of a cascading
effect.17 Estimates put the current numberof smaller pieces of debris (larger than
1 centimetre in size) at nearly a million,18
while larger objects over 10 centimetres
number in the thousands (see Figure 5.2).
Providing orbital servicing and debris
removal could, however, help alleviate
some of the worst consequences.19
Tracking debris is a critical tool inpreventing collision or damage, but it
will need to become increasingly
sophisticated to maintain reliability in amore congested realm.
With such possibilities becoming likelier ina congested space, the lack of updated
international rules around space activity
increases the risk of potential clashes.
The most relevant of space agreements,
the Outer Space Treaty, was concluded in1967 and still, through the UN Office for

BOX 5.1

The Kessler EffectFirst identified by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978,
this describes a scenario where the density of objects(satellites and debris) in LEO is high enough that collisions
between objects could cause a cascade in which eachcollision generates space debris that increases the likelihoodof further collisions and an exponential growth of debris.
One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could
render space activities and the use of satellites in specificorbital ranges difficult for many generations.

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REUTERS/JOE SKIPPER

Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), governs
much of the activity taking place in space.
However, few effective governance tools
have emerged in recent years to reflect new
realities, such as the pressing need for an
authority to govern satellite launches andservicing, space traffic control and common
enforcement principles.20
As an exemplar challenge, the 1972
Space Liability Convention—whichgoverns international responsibility forspace objects launched from Earth—lacks precision around hybrid aircraft androcket transport systems. For example,
different legal authorities may govern
depending on whether a vehicle is deemed
to have launched when an aircraft takes
off with a rocket attached or when therocket detaches from the aircraft—and
whether the hybrid vehicle is an aircraft orspacecraft while both pieces are attached.
New addenda may be needed to clarify
when space law should supersede aviation
law.21 Even the most robust governancerealm, electromagnetic spectrum
management, which is governed by theInternational Telecommunication Union(ITU), faces serious crowding pressureswith new satellite systems and increased
competition in the terrestrial spectrum
usage of emerging 5G technologies.22
Respondents to the Global Risks
Perception Survey (GRPS) reflect thesegaps: 76% of respondents characterized
the current state of international risk
mitigation efforts in space as either “notstarted” or in “early development”.
Governments, too, have developed
their own national space policies,23 withcommercial interests as a key pillar of theirnational strategies, alongside national
security and civil space policy. Althoughmany governments have cooperated behindthe scenes historically and still do today,24
there is significant policy divergence amongthe 28 nations with space regulation,25 andcountries now operate at different scales
and with different levels of ambition.26 Suchfragmentation compromises the further
development of beneficial commercial space
activities, which require shared norms acrossstates to be able to function.27
National space ambitions also bring a
growing risk of the militarization of space.
The US military created a Space Force asa separate branch of its armed services
in 2019, while Japan’s Space Operations
Squadron and the United Kingdom’s

National space ambitions
bring a growing risk ofmilitarization of space
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FIGURE 5.2

Evolution of the Number of Objects in All Orbits, 1960–2020
PayloadDebrisRocket bodyRocket Mission and Payload Mission Related Object

Unidentified

Object count
30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source: European Space Agency. 2021. ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report. 27 May 2021. https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/environment_report/Space_
Environment_Report_latest.pdf

Space Command were both createdin the last two years. Other leading
armed forces also now typically include
a space component—for instance, in
2021, the French Air Force became the
Air and Space Force (Armée de l’Air &de l’Espace). In November of 2021, ananti-satellite weapons test conductedby Russia created significant debris andthreatened astronauts on the ISS.28
Other countries have conducted similar
testing, raising the spectre of repeat
occurrences from other nations, which
would add considerably to the problemof space debris (see Figure 5.2).29 A
hypersonic weapons arms race alsorisks contributing to the militarization of
space—China, Russia and the UnitedStates are all developing such weaponsand each tested them in the second halfof 2021.30 And with expanding geospatialintelligence, all of Earth is observableby satellites, which could spur somenations to blind, jam or otherwise interferewith satellite Earth observation.31 As
technology advances, space mineral
exploitation—already heralded aspart of some deep-space exploration
programmes—could also be viewed asanother competitive wedge over a moredistant horizon.32
Gaps in space governance render arms
races even more likely. For example,
the Outer Space Treaty prohibits
nuclear weapons in space but does notaddress conventional weapons, which isparticularly worrisome in today’s context
of conventional weapons development
and testing in space. New rules areunlikely in the near future, as there islittle agreement over key issues such as

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boundaries, control over space objects, or
dual-use systems.33 Any further decline incooperation on space governance will only
exacerbate risks.34
Service disruption and environmental
unknowns: Consequences for people
Societies are dependent on space
infrastructure in myriad everyday ways.
GPS satellites not only allow for safe
navigation in the air, land and sea, butthey also underpin financial transactions,data transmissions and energy control
systems. Threats—such as a massive
solar storm or jamming or spoofing ofGPS satellites—could cause the internet
to slow, navigation systems to fail,and controls for energy grids, water ortransportation to crash. Ripple effects
across societies could be extensive, evenfor a few seconds of disruption.35
There are also significant unknowns about
the impacts of rapid space development
on Earth’s environment—including damage
to the ozone layer, butterfly effects
from black carbon (soot) emissions,and possible alterations of the polar
jet stream.36 Of course, technologicaladvances, such as developmentsin space-based solar power, could
offset many of the potential negativeenvironmental impacts of growing space
exploration and exploitation.37

Gravitational push and pull:Consequences for governments
Notwithstanding high levels of private sector
investment, increased commercializationand growing geopolitical competition will
demand higher government spending on
space programmes and defence at a time
when public finances are under greaterpressure due to the economic overhang of
COVID-19 (see Chapter 1). For example,
governments will increasingly need tocompete for talent, with private sector
entities offering more lucrative employment
packages. Defence agencies will need tocontinue to expend resources to defend
against more-sophisticated space-based
weaponry and increasingly effective spacebased tools of statecraft, such as enhanced
surveillance or espionage.
Yet, for a large majority of governments,
space technology and access will remain outof reach altogether at a time when relianceon space technologies is growing for all.
Forty-one nations have registered space
agencies with UNOOSA,38 yet the many
governments not represented will continue
to struggle to develop their capacities orearn a seat at the table in key decisionmaking processes. Without concerted effort
to facilitate inclusive growth in the space
realm, inequalities in the commercial andgeopolitical benefits accruing from spacedevelopment will only grow.

Shocks to Reflect Upon

Kessler Collapse

Solar Disruption

Property in Space

What if a cascading chain ofcollisions between near-Earthobjects and space debris
result in a saturated Low Earth
Orbit that renders spacepractically unusable for further
commercial development?

What if a massive solar eventor geomagnetic storm disrupts
satellite-based services andfunctions, causing massive,
cascading economic and societal
consequences on Earth?39

What if violations of the Outer
Space Treaty—such as mineral
resources being claimed in a Moon
"gold rush"—are carried out without
meaningful consequences?

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76

Opportunity blocks: Consequences
for businesses
Venture financing flooded into thespace industry following the successful
launches of commercial space flights.
As commercial activity in space grows,
more companies could crop up
seeking entry while investor interestis high. However, if manufacturing,

tourism or other space ventures failto take flight, speculators and spaceindustry companies could see their
bubble burst. Similarly, grassroots
campaigns to ban space pollution
and prevent privatization of importantscience data could give investors pause,
stifling the unmitigated venture financing
in the field. 40

Towards cooperation in space
Although space represents yet anotherrealm in which geopolitical and commercial
tensions will play out, important traditionsof cooperation in this arena should not be
forgotten. Norms of behaviour establishedthrough voluntary measures that are notlegally binding with the goal of building trustand establishing mutual understanding havehelped mitigate escalating tensions in thepast. While this trend could continue, morerobust formal governance will be required
in a more crowded and competitive
space. Specific and functional bilateral or
multilateral agreements between major
space powers could help create norms
and influence broader global behaviours.

REUTERS/ROSCOSMOSSpace situational awareness, space traffic
management and debris mitigation are areasin which norms-based and eventually formalinternational agreements would benefit all
actors. Critically, and like other realms where
technology is developing at a faster pace than
its regulation, bringing private sector actors
into the agreement processes will help ensurethat such pacts reflect both commercial andtechnical realities. Taking advantage of theseopportunities to achieve widely accepted
norms could then help facilitate discussions
around more challenging issues in space,such as limits on weaponization, ownershipand appropriate venues from which to
govern the realm.

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77Endnotes
12

Fildes, N. 2021. “Satellite groups face race to scale up or
become space junk: Billionaire enthusiasts and new technology
have brought valuations down to earth in a fragmented market”.
Financial Times. 14 November 2021. https://www.ft.com/
content/138b3f58-cdad-484f-b180-ce0b96bb7028
Morgan Stanley. 2020 “Space: Investing in the Final Frontier”.
24 July 2020. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investingin-space; Stutt, A. 2020. “The global race to mine outer space”.
Mining.com. 22 May 2020. https://www.mining.com/the-globalrace-to-mine-outer-space/; Woo, E. 2021. “Start-ups aim beyond
Earth”. The New York Times. 7 July 2021. https://www.nytimes.
com/2021/07/07/technology/space-start-ups.html

3

Morgan Stanley. 2020. Op. cit.

4

Gabbat, A. 2021. “US accuses Russia of ‘dangerous’ behavior
after anti-satellite weapons test”. The Guardian. 15 November
2021. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/
us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-antisatellite-weapon-test; Jones, A. 2021. “China’s Tiangong
space station”. Space. 24 August 2021. https://www.space.
com/tiangong-space-station; Rome, N. 2021. “Growth ofspace and lunar stations: Promise amidst geopolitical risk”.
Georgetown Security Studies Review. 14 July 2021. https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2021/07/14/growth-ofspace-and-lunar-stations-promise-amidst-geopolitical-risk/

5Rome. 2021. Op. cit.

6

NASA. 2021. Artemis Mission. https://www.nasa.gov/specials/
artemis/7

European Space Policy Institute. 2021. Emerging Spacefaring
Nations. June 2021. https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-publicreports/category/2-public-espi-reports; Goswami, N. 2021.
“Status of existing and emerging Asia-Pacific space powers
capabilities”. Nautilus Institute. 20 August 2021. https://nautilus.
org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/status-of-existing-andemerging-asia-pacific-space-powers-capabilities/

8

Buchs, R. 2021. “Intensifying space activity calls for increased
scrutiny of risks”. EPFL. 14 April 2021. https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/spotlight-on-risk-series/intensifyingspace-activity-calls-for-increased-scrutiny-of-risks/

9

Ibid.

10 Davis, G. 2021. “SpaceX’s competitors claim Elon Musk could
monopolize space”. Tech Times. 29 May 2021. https://www.
techtimes.com/articles/260823/20210529/spacexs-competitorsclaims-elon-musk-monopolize-space-starlink-constellationunsustainable.htm
11 Broad, W.J. 2021. “How space became the next ‘great power’contest between the U.S. and China”. The New York Times. 6
May 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/
trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html
12 Daehnick, C. and Harrington, J. 2021. “Look out below: What will
happen to the space debris in orbit?” McKinsey & Company. 1
October 2021. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospaceand-defense/our-insights/look-out-below-what-will-happen-tothe-space-debris-in-orbit; Jones, A. 2021. “China is developing
plans for a 13,000-satellite megaconstellation”. SpaceNews. 21
April 2021. https://spacenews.com/china-is-developing-plans-fora-13000-satellite-communications-megaconstellation/; Spiegel
Business. 2021. “Bezos’ space company is planning a private
space station – slightly smaller than the ISS”. Spiegel Business. 25

October 2021. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/
jeff-bezos-plant-private-raumstation-orbital-reef-etwas-kleiner-alsdie-iss-a-1779efd7-6ee6-4c92-9986-7fc996951e8f
13 Daehnick, C. and Harrington, J. 2021. “Look out below: What will
happen to the space debris in orbit?” McKinsey & Company. 1
October 2021. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospaceand-defense/our-insights/look-out-below-what-will-happen-tothe-space-debris-in-orbit
14 NASA. 2021. State-of-the-Art Small Spacecraft Technology.
October 2021. https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/
files/soa_2021.pdf
15 Nature. 2021. “The world must cooperate to avoid a catastrophic
space collision”. Nature. 11 August 2021. https://www.nature.
com/articles/d41586-021-02167-5
16 Strickland, A. 2021. “Space junk hit the International Space
Station, damaging a robotic arm”. CNN. 1 June 2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/01/world/iss-orbital-debris-roboticarm-scn/index.html
17 Hyde, J. L., Christiansen, E.L. and Lear, D.M. 2019.
“Observations of MMOD Impact Damages to the ISS”. NASA. 9
December 2019. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190033989;
Kessler, DJ. and Cour-Palais, B.G. 1978. "Collision frequency
of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt". Journal ofGeophysical Research. Volume 83, Issue A6. 1 June 1978.
18 The European Space Agency. 2021. "Space debris by the
numbers". 22 December 2021. https://www.esa.int/Safety_
Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers
19 Rooney, K. 2021. “The big space clean-up – and why it matters”.
World Economic Forum Global Agenda. 20 May 2021. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/space-junk-clean-satellite/
20 Stuart, J. 2017. “The Outer Space Treaty has been remarkably
successful – but is it fit for the modern age?”. The Conversation.
27 January 2017. https://theconversation.com/the-outerspace-treaty-has-been-remarkably-successful-but-is-it-fit-forthe-modern-age-71381; Kwan, R. and Henley, J. 2021. "China
berates US after ‘close encounters’ with Elon Musk satellites".
The Guardian. 28 December 2021. https://www.theguardian.
com/science/2021/dec/28/china-complains-to-un-after-spacestation-is-forced-to-move-to-avoid-starlink-satellites
21 Li, C. and Wang, G. 2021. “Applicability of the
Liability Convention for Private Spaceflight”. Space:
Science & Technology. 4 May 2021. https://doi.
org/10.34133/2021/9860584
22 Panhans, D., Schicht, R., Hamady, F. and Werlé, T. 2020. “TheComing Battle for Spectrum”. 11 February 2020. https://www.
bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum
23 See, e.g., U.S. Office of the Vice-President. 2021. “United States
Space Priorities Framework.” 1 December 2021. https://www.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/United-StatesSpace-Priorities-Framework-_-December-1-2021.pdf
24 Marshall W. and Hadfield, C. 2021. “Why the U.S. and China
should collaborate in space”. Time. 15 April 2021. https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/;
Shackelford, S. 2019. “Renewed space rivalry between nations

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78

ignores a tradition of cooperation”. The Conversation. 10 January
2019. https://theconversation.com/renewed-space-rivalrybetween-nations-ignores-a-tradition-of-cooperation-108810
25 Goguichvili, S., Linenberger, A. and Gillette, A. 2021. “The Global
Legal Landscape of Space: Who Writes the Rules on the Final
Frontier?” 1 October 2021. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/
global-legal-landscape-space-who-writes-rules-final-frontier
26 European Space Policy Institute. 2021. “Emerging Spacefaring
Nations”. June 2021. https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-publicreports/category/2-public-espi-reports
27 Goguichvili, Linenberger and Gillette. 2021. Op. cit.
28 Gabbat, A. 2021. “US accuses Russia of ‘dangerous’ behavior
after anti-satellite weapons test”. The Guardian. 15 November
2021. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/
us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-antisatellite-weapon-test; Rincon, P. and Amos, J. 2021. “Russiananti-satellite test adds to worsening problem of space debris”.
BBC. 16 November 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/scienceenvironment-59307862

37 David, L. 2021. “Space solar power’s time may finally be
coming”. Space.com. 3 November 2021. https://www.space.
com/space-solar-power-research-advances
38 UNOOSA (United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs). https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/space-agencies.html,
accessed 15 December 2021
39 Khodairy, S., Sharaf, M., Awad, M., Hamed, R.A. and
Hussein, M. 2020. “Impact of solar activity on Low Earth
Orbiting satellites’. Journal of Physics: Conference Series
1523 (1): 012010. IOP Publishing. https://iopscience.iop.org/
article/10.1088/1742-6596/1523/1/012010/pdf
40 Szkutak, R. 2021. “The billionaire space race launches a new
venture capital solar system”. Forbes. 16 September 2021.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/
the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solarsystem/?sh=74f837e7482e

29 Historically, collisions and anti-satellite weapons testing havecreated significant increases in the number of orbiting space
objects and debris, e.g., in 2009, when an active commercial
communications satellite collided with a derelict military satellite,
or in 2007, from an anti-satellite test.
30 Sevastopulo, D. and Hille, K. 2021. “China tests new spacecapability with hypersonic missile”. Financial Times. 16 October
2021. https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-404093cb-a486e1f843fb; Stone, M. 2021. “U.S. in hypersonic
weapon ‘arms race’ with China -Air Force secretary”. Reuters. 1
December 2021. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospacedefense/us-hypersonic-weapon-arms-race-with-china-air-forcesecretary-2021-11-30/; Reuters. 2021. “Russia conducts test
launch of hypersonic missile -Interfax”. 24 December 2021.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-testlaunch-hypersonic-missile-interfax-2021-12-24/
31 Vinci, A. 2020. “The coming revolution in intelligence affairs”.
Foreign Affairs. 31 August 2020. https://www.foreignaffairs.
com/articles/north-america/2020-08-31/coming-revolutionintelligence-affairs
32 Stutt, A. 2020. “The global race to mine outer space”. Mining.
com. 22 May 2020. https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-tomine-outer-space/
33 Pozdnyakova, G. 2021. “Top-10 themes for 2022: Space: aworrying geopolitical frontier”. Deutsch Bank. 8 December
2021. https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.
ReWEB?rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.
class&document=PROD0000000000521006
34 Panda, A. 2021. “Military Competition, New Technologies, andSpace”. An Asian Space Odyssey. March 2021. Diplomat Risk
Intelligence. https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/
35 Scott, C. 2018. “The violent solar storms that threaten Earth”.
BBC. 22 November 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/scienceenvironment-46260959; Tullis, P. 2019. “GPS is easy to hack,and the U.S. has no back-up”. Scientific American. 1 December
2019. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-is-easy-tohack-and-the-u-s-has-no-backup/
36 Ross, M. and Vedda, J.A. 2018. “The Policy and Science ofRocket Emissions”. Center for Space Policy and Strategy. 31
March 2018. https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2018-05/
RocketEmissions_0.pdf

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CHAPTER 6

Refreshing
Resilience
COVID-19 Lessons for a
Whole-of-Society Response

67.2%
COVID-19-vaccinated population in
high-income countries

20-40❌
increase in number of daily COVID-19 cases
between peak and trough2.1 million
maximum estimated excess deaths in Africa
by 2021

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80

Adaptive resilience to the pandemic at thenational level
The 2021 Global Risks Report closedwith a reflection on the extent towhich shortcomings in the pandemic
response could be attributed to longstanding complacencies, the novel andspecific complexities of COVID-19,
the volatile and divisive (geo)politicalenvironment or simple mismanagement.
This chapter takes stock of national
response strategies implemented in
the second year of the pandemic,
and then reflects on collaborative
opportunities within countries to improve
preparedness for future crises andorganizational resilience.
During 2020, national governmentssought to protect lives and livelihoods
against a novel virus that was resulting
in a significant mortality rate—with the
backdrop of significant shortcomings in

REUTERS/ELOISA LOPEZ

national and global preparedness. In 2021,
as the virus evolved more contagious
variants, governments sought to deploy
new responses, in alignment withmeasures developed the previous year, toreturn to societal and economic normalcy.
Most countries experienced several surges
during the year, with the number of dailycases characterized by exponential growth
and a 20- to 40-fold increase between
peak and trough (see Figure 6.1). By thismeasure, most countries presented both
success stories and cautionary tales atdifferent times.

Most countries saw both
success stories and cautionary
tales at different times

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FIGURE 6.1

COVID-19 Daily New Cases: Global and Top Six Countries
by Infections
Global3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

22 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

United States

India

1,200,000

450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,00001,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0

22 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

Brazil

22 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

United Kingdom

140,000

350,000

120,000

300,000

100,000

250,000

80,000200,000

60,000150,000

40,000100,000

20,00050,000022 Jan 20

04 Jan 220FranceRussia300,000

450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,0000

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000022 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

22 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

22 Jan 20

04 Jan 22

Source: Worldometer. Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic – “Daily new cases”. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, accessed 5 January 2022.

Two interlinked factors have proved critical
for the effective national management of
the pandemic: first, governments’ readinessto adjust response strategies according

to changing circumstances; and second,
their ability to maintain societal trust andcompliance through principles-based
decisions and effective communications.

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82

Flexible response strategies
In general, effective national responses
were characterized by a holistic viewof societal well-being, multi-pronged
approaches to transmission control
and health system protection, robust
coordination of policy and process, reliablelogistics and the deployment of new
interventions and increasingly granular andreal-time data where available. Countries
such as Chile and Finland were better
able to manage peak periods than thosewith less well-rounded approaches.1 They
achieved this via cross-departmental
policy agendas; expanded networks
of community health workers; key
health worker protections; a range ofindividually imperfect but collectively
effective transmission control measures
such as testing, tracing, and isolating;digital healthcare technologies; and early
investment in anticipation of future needs.
Critical for many countries was theestablishment of well-judged policy
transitions between enabling social
interaction and economic activity whenpossible and returning, when needed, tothe kind of mobility constraints that weredefault strategies in the early stages of
the crisis. Rapid and wholesale easingof constraints on social and economic
activity often resulted in a steep rise in casenumbers, although the impact on healthsystems and mortality was often mitigatedby high vaccination rates. Some countries
that had prided themselves on very low
case numbers for a long time found it hardto acknowledge or pivot when that was
no longer the best indicator to measure
the state of the pandemic.2 The Omicron
variant, with its higher infectiousness, will
moreover force governments to revisit thebalance between sustaining economic
activity and limiting spread. Some arechoosing to minimize disruptions inlight of the virus’ evidently milder threat,
although they must be prepared toreinstate restrictions as necessary giventhat healthcare systems remain at riskof collapse.3
The arrival of effective vaccines and antiviraltreatments changed the game in termsof managing the impact of the virus

on citizens’ health and national healthsystems, enabling greater latitude in otherpolicies.4 Mass deployment of affordable
rapid tests also helped people move andmingle again while mitigating transmission
risk. However, although a range ofvaccines was technically available fromearly in the year, differing negotiating
powers, contracting approaches andapproval regimes had a strong impact onprogramme rollout timetables. Many highincome countries had privileged accessto vaccines: by early December 2021,
all but three Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD)
countries had double-vaccinated at least
50% of their populations.5 Some middleincome countries had also achieved highlevels of vaccination: for example, the
79% vaccination rate in Malaysia waslargely due to effective distribution,6 while
Brazil’s 65% was attributed to strong
vaccine enthusiasm.7

FIGURE 6.2

Percentage of the Population
Who Are Fully VaccinatedLow-income
countries

4.3%
High-income
countries

69.9%

Source: ONE. 2021. “Data dive: The astoundingly unequal vaccine rollout”.
January 2022.

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83

REUTERS/ELOISA LOPEZ

The lowest vaccination rates were mostly
found in low-income countries (see Figure6.2), especially in Africa, that had to rely on“vaccine diplomacy” initiatives from individual
countries and multilateral agreements suchas the Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access(COVAX) programme. The latter sufferedfrom low contributions from high-income
countries, high levels of bureaucracy,
unpredictable supplies, and storage anddistribution challenges.8 Relatively younger
populations and "a favorable climate may
have blunted the mortality of the virus inthese countries, though excess deaths were
estimated at between 0–2.1 million in Africa
by May 2021,9 and long Covid may emerge
as a longer-term challenge given the large
number of non-fatal cases.

Although global eradication of COVID-19
is no longer a viable option, persistenttransmission of SARS-Cov-2 allows the
emergence of new variants that are morecontagious and may be more virulent andescape immunity conferred by infection
or existing vaccines. Hence, the relatively
slower vaccine rollouts in middle- andlow-income countries, as well as vaccine
hesitancy wherever present, remain acontinued pandemic risk for all countries
and require anticipation of further policy
transitions. As and when new variants
arise, governments will need to reimpose
an appropriate set of control measures.

In general, successful vaccine rollout
programmes struck a balance between
speed and robustness, recognizing that
perfect was sometimes the enemy of good.
Vaccine effectiveness was found to improve
following a second dose but waned overtime, leading advanced economies tointroduce booster jab programmes in which
take-up and speed were key priorities.10 By
the latter part of the year, analysis showedthat fully vaccinated individuals were lesslikely to transmit the virus, experience severe
or long-haul symptoms, occupy hospitalbeds or die.11

Maintaining societal trust involved galvanizing
compliance and cooperation across citizens
and the business community throughfrequent changes of government policy
over an extended period. This often proved

Maintaining societal trust

Mass and affordable testing
helped people move andmingle while mitigatingtransmission
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84

challenging as, during 2021, many citizens
became even more weary of lockdowns
and obligations such as mask-wearing. In
late November, several European countries
and Australia experienced riots when
governments tightened regimes in the faceof ballooning case numbers.12
Moreover, in advanced economies withwidespread access to vaccines, significant
percentages of the adult population
remained unvaccinated at the end of 2021
due to misplaced concerns about the riskof the vaccines relative to that of catching
the virus, over-confidence in their own
natural immunity and adherence to a rangeof theories that lack scientific basis.13 In
other countries, general distrust of thegovernment has resulted in widespread
vaccine hesitancy, with alternative sourcesof authority, including local opinion andreligious leaders, not sufficiently able to help
allay fears.14
The trust component of managing
this crisis has often depended on abalance between imposing constraints
or coercions based on science andpolicies that encourage good behaviour.
Communication has needed to steer
a narrow course between individual
freedoms and collective resilience; indeed,nearly 50% of the World Economic Forum

REUTERS/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE

global risk experts identified this tension as
one of the most critical for societies
to manage.15 The challenge will only
intensify as the pandemic extends
into its third year and the public grows
increasingly weary, especially during
festive seasons as expectations for
unfettered social activity increase.
The faster distribution of testing kits,along with easier self-administrationand greater reliability of results, were
helpful for enabling social interactions
and international mobility. Widespread
availability of affordable testing will be
crucial as restrictions are increasingly liftedand greater social activity causes demand
to outstrip supply, as has already been
seen in some countries. However, regarding
vaccines, some governments have become
concerned that voluntary measures havereached their limits, especially with thearrival of the Omicron variant.16 Plans for
vaccination requirements, with sanctions
on employment or mobility for those who
continue to resist, will test societal goodwill
and compliance as well as government
determination in light of divisive politics.17
Additionally, national resilience strategies for
future pandemics may require anticipationof some level of distrust and defiance ofrestrictions and interventions aimed at
protecting vulnerable population segments.

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Preparing national resilience ecosystems
for future crises
The COVID-19 crisis repeatedly surprised
those charged with anticipating its trajectory
and will likely leave further complex
problems in its wake. Nor is the pandemic
and its response the only challenge thatgovernments, societies and businesses arefacing. As the Global Risks Report sets out,
new crises may lie just over the horizon.
Many critical risks demand a whole-ofsociety response. This involves not only theengagement of different sectors leading tomultiple individual actions, but also more
effective interaction between different
sectors in ways that are accretive to wellbeing and prosperity.18
Countries must distinguish between
different resilience goals to harness theircollective capabilities more effectively andnavigate the many inevitable trade-offs,
as failure to appreciate where agendas
are misaligned will limit the traction any
solutions can gain. One such goal might
be community resilience to potential
disasters; another might be reliable critical
economic and societal infrastructure; a third
might be long-term strategic imperatives
such as industrial transformation.19 Eachof these goals requires different strategies,
providing a frame for different crosssectoral interactions.

Government lensNational risk assessments and resiliencestrategy reviews should be used to reveal
where momentum is insufficient and greater
government intervention is needed. It is
not desirable or feasible for governments
to seek to fill all gaps themselves:
instead, they should look to harness thecapabilities and energies of other sectors tocomplement enhanced competencies that
ought to lie in the public realm.20 Strategies
should set out what is needed and examine
all available levers with fresh eyes. They
should identify where governments mayneed to compel action by others, andwhere they can exercise power as aclient, stimulate new initiatives, facilitate
collaboration or simply act as cheerleader
for good practices.
In their interactions with the private sector,
governments that are more dirigiste mightwant to adjust their approaches to models
for stockpiling critical goods, requisitioning
and procurement in a crisis.21 All might alsoseek tougher cybersecurity mandates andset out stronger expectations of stress testingfor critical infrastructure.22 They might seek
to bring about a research and development
ecosystem for resilience, coordinate crisis
management exercises involving public
and private sectors and provide a level ofbackstop for pooled insurance schemes
targeted at catastrophic risks.23
On three issues, finding a balanced pathis critical. First, it is essential to allocate
risk in a way that means the taxpayer does
not ultimately pay up in every crisis nor dogovernments sweep risks off the publicbalance sheet onto the private sector. Moretransparent, analysis-led discussions aboutrisks and tolerances should spur more
equitable, creative solutions about the costand pricing of risk as well as fiscal andmarket buffers that might mitigate fallout inthe event of crisis.
Second, regulating for resilience must factor
in rapid changes in assets, industries andsystems; conflicting priorities in regulatory
mandates; and enforcement challenges.
Arguably, systemically important assets,
firms and sub-sectors ought to experiencegreater oversight to prevent “hidden”
assets in digital ecosystems, dominantfirms in niche but critical industries andgrowing segments of certain sectors

Government should
harness capabilities inother sectors to enhance
public competencies
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where the plausible near-simultaneous
failure of several providers could havenegative far-reaching consequences.24
For regulatory regimes that primarily lookout for present-day consumers, long-term
resilience should be a central tenet andcapability underpinning the development
and implementation of major criticalinfrastructure capital investment plans.25
Stronger cross-sector regulatory hubs
could sharpen debate and help reconcile
differing agendas of bodies with separate
statutory powers.26
Third, data-sharing arrangements must be
adjusted in a way that enables both preemptive resilience building and sharper
crisis management. There are goodreasons for constraining some flows ofdata and intelligence, including national
security, commercial confidentiality,
antitrust constraints and personal privacy.
Acknowledging this, governments may
seek to identify crisis circumstances—such as a cybersecurity lapse—in which
they should compel critical infrastructure
operators to provide data to government
bodies. In other situations, such as anearthquake, they might permit, or evenencourage, competing firms to share datawith each other to ensure strategic supplies
for the nation. Prior to crises, governments
should consider how to develop morecollaborative approaches to scenario andimpact analyses, build semi-accessible andproprietary data into resilience analytics andcrisis decision-making, and better facilitate

GETTY/VCG

pre-competitive data sharing by companies
for innovations that will benefit bothparticipants and the national good.27

Business lensMany companies have sought tounderstand how they can contribute to
the resilience of the countries in which
they operate. They recognize that better
national-level preparedness leads to shock
events having smaller impacts on theeconomy and stability of government policy,
creating a better environment in which toplan, invest and execute.
Opportunities fall into four groups. First,
large firms already look intensively atbusiness interruption risks across supply
chains, managed service providers,utilities and customers with a view tosoftening the impact of bottlenecks andoutages; smaller firms could do the samewith a lighter touch.28 Second, nationally
important companies worked witheach other where permitted during the
pandemic; more broadly scoped codesof conduct could set out best-practice
behaviours per industry for future crises.29
Third, the pandemic spurred companies
to look harder at the resilience of theirworkforces and the communities in which
they are located; large employers could
build a resilience dimension into healthand benefits offerings.30 Fourth, somefirms have been seeking to take a more

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87

GETTYactive role in addressing large-scale public
policy challenges that affect their businessbut cannot be resolved by government
alone; more of that effort could be directly
positioned in support of public goods.31
While public funds have traditionallydirected resilience efforts, there is a
growing imperative for businesses to takeup the mantle of driving innovation inorder to reduce blind spots and counterstovepiping tendencies within government.
Greater private sector participation in
strategic forums can allow experts andpractitioners to contribute to and challenge
government agendas. Dynamic crosssectoral interactions around priorities,
policies and operating practices can also
help uncover efficient and efficacious
solutions as well as generate broader
traction for fresh initiatives.32

Community lens
Both the pandemic and extreme weather
events have highlighted areas where
central governments and local bodies
can combine more effectively. Failure tojoin up policy agendas across national
government departments can havedevastating impacts at the local level,
where crises play out and disconnects
are exposed. Similarly, “air gaps” between
central and local governments—often due
to struggles for authority or weaknesses
in liaison networks—have compromised
data flows, the effectiveness of initiatives
and local trust.33 Improved communication
processes, better devolution of decision-

Better national preparedness
creates a better environment
to invest
making authorities, stronger coordinationof on-the-ground efforts between central
government specialist agencies and local
administrations and better capacity-building
at local and national levels would go a longway in supporting resilience.
There is scope for central and local
governments to do more to support
resilience efforts at the community level,
often in partnership with non-governmentalorganizations and businesses. Local
resilience forums can galvanize
communities to provide detailed intelligenceon situational vulnerabilities and likely
impacts of key risks, helping to prioritize
resilience measures. Enhancing awarenessand participation, empowering local actors
and building capabilities are vital for thecultural shift that is essential for sustaining
resilience programmes over the long term.
There are multiple opportunities to enrichinterfaces between academic communities
and government agendas at local, national
and international levels, especially forthe provision of expertise and evidence
on matters of science and technology.34
Collaborative exploration of risk andresilience issues—before, during and after
a crisis—would benefit from stronger, more
flexible communication channels and higher
levels of trust (see Box 6.1).

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BOX 6.1

From Insights to PracticeBased on the challenges of the past year, the World Economic Forum has worked with two of its principal risk
communities, the Chief Risk Officers Community and the Global Future Council on Frontier Risks, to identify fivepractical lessons to improve organizational practice for resilience:

1. Ground analyses
in delivery
requirements.

It is often useful to start not with specific risks but with the types of failure,damage and attrition that could compromise core business goals. Working
back from these undesirable outcomes makes for a more open assessmentof current practices and a better appreciation of the capabilities, levers,
tools and processes that might need to be introduced, deployed, redesigned
or enhanced.

2. Appreciatevulnerabilities
within the broader
ecosystem.

As well as examining the critical assets and operations they control,organizations should look at the broader ecosystem in which they operate.
They should examine their resilience to shortfalls, outages and delays of thethird-party assets and services on which they depend, and the tolerances of
those who depend on them.

3. Embrace adiversity ofresiliencestrategies.

Some possible crises can be mitigated by placing more emphasis on just-incase reliability than on just-in-time efficiency. Others may be best served by
implementing back-ups and redundancies, adjusting operational processes,
or ensuring that the organization can move quickly and adapt in order tomaintain business continuity. Supportive employee behaviours are as vital as
structural measures, especially when empowered by good leadership andeffective communication.

4. Connect resilience
efforts with othergoals.

Many organizational environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals
are shared with a broad-based resilience platform and would benefit from
improved alignment. For example, shortening supply chains can advance
net zero strategies as well as reduce exposure to adverse geoeconomic
developments, while strong community relations may help recovery initiatives
in the event of a disaster.

5. Consider resilience
to be a journey nota destination.

Organizations with leading resilience programmes learn from stress-testing
exercises and actual crises to emerge stronger, more supple and better
prepared. They are alert to changing circumstances that may demonstrateelevated risks, vigilant in challenging themselves about blind spots andshortcomings that require additional action and eager to adapt response
strategies to better achieve critical goals.

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Endnotes
1

Bloomberg. 2021. “The Best and Worst Places to Be as WinterMeets Omicron”. 30 November 2021. https://www.bloomberg.
com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/2

Tan, Y. 2021. “What went wrong in Singapore and Taiwan?”
BBC News. 20 May 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/worldasia-57153195

3

The Guardian. 2021. "WHO warns Omicron could overwhelm
health systems as cases rise to record highs in Europe". 29
December 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/
dec/29/who-warns-omicron-could-overwhelm-health-systemsas-cases-rise-to-record-highs-in-europe

4Crow, D. 2021. “How mRNA became a vaccine game-changer”.
Financial Times. 13 May 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/b2978026-4bc2-439c-a561-a1972eeba940

5

Our World in Data. Share of the population fully vaccinatedagainst COVID-19. https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/
master/public/data, accessed 15 December 2021.

6

Kurlantzick, J. 2021. “Lessons ASEAN could learn from
Malaysia’s pandemic success”. The Japan Times. 5 November
2021. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/11/05/
commentary/world-commentary/malaysias-pandemic-success/7

Freelon, K. 2021. “In Brazil’s successful vaccine campaign, alesson for the U.S.” Undark Magazine. 14 October 2021. https://undark.org/2021/10/14/in-brazil-successful-vaccine-campaignlesson-for-us/

8

Fleming, S., Mancini, P.D. and Pilling, D. 2021. “‘Erratic’European Covid vaccine donations hamper African jabs rollout”.
Financial Times. 9 December 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/
d0b53ea4-5eef-4bc7-814c-a69b0dfa1c06

9

The Economist. 2021. “There have been 7m-13m excess deaths
worldwide during the pandemic”. The Economist. 15 May 2021.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-havebeen-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic

10 Stieg, C. 2021. “New data says you should get a Covid vaccine
booster shot as soon as you’re eligible — here’s why”. CNBC. 10
November 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/why-younghealthy-people-should-get-covid-vaccine-booster-shots.html
11 Aravindan, A and Lin, C. 2021. “Vaccinated people make up
75% of recent COVID-19 cases in Singapore, but few fall ill”.
Reuters. 23 July 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asiapacific/vaccinated-people-singapore-make-up-three-quartersrecent-covid-19-cases-2021-07-23/; Mathieu, E. and Roser,
M. 2021. “How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between
people who are vaccinated and those who are not?” Our World inData. 23 November 2021; updated 10 December 2021. https://
ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination
12 DW. 2021. “COVID curbs spark protests worldwide”. Deustche
Welle. 21 November 2021. https://www.dw.com/en/covid-curbsspark-protests-worldwide/a-59892484
13 See, e.g., Thompson, D. 2021. “Millions are saying no to thevaccines. What are they thinking?” The Atlantic. 4 May 2021.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/the-peoplewho-wont-get-the-vaccine/618765/; Calonzo, A. and Tan, K.
2021.”Anti-Vaxxer Propaganda Spreads in Asia, Endangering
Millions”. Bloomberg. 1 July 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/
news/articles/2021-06-30/anti-vaxxer-disinformation-spreads-inasia-endangering-millions

14 Hartwig, R. and Hoffmann, L. 2021. Challenging Trust in
Government: COVID in Sub-Saharan Africa. GIGA Focus Afrika.
https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/25196662challenging-trust-government-covid-saharan-africa/
15 The World Economic Forum Chief Risk Officers Community andGlobal Future Council on Frontier Risks were asked which tension
was most critical in achieving strong resilience in societies.
In addition to “individual rights v. collective resilience”, otherselected tensions included “cost optimization v. risk exposure”(22%), “government overreach v. expectation management”(11%), “public v. private protocols in a crisis” (11%), and “use of
emergency powers v. market evolution” (4%).
16 Onishi, N. and Casey, N. 2021. "Crack Down Hard, or Wait andSee? Europe Splits on Omicron Response". The New York Times.
20 December 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/
world/europe/europe-divided-omicron-response.html
17 Fleming, S. and Chazan, G. 2021. “Von der Leyen calls forEU ‘discussion’ on mandatory vaccination”. Financial Times.
1 December 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/3e96d3090283-4a33-9fc0-2bc5de22cb5f; Henley, J. 2021. “Germany:
Mandatory Covid jabs a step closer as unvaccinated face
lockdown”. The Guardian. 2 December 2021. https://www.
theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/02/germany-could-makecovid-vaccination-mandatory-says-merkel; Shear, M. D. andScheiber, N. 2021. “Biden tests limits of presidential power inpushing vaccinations”. New York Times. 4 November 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/us/politics/bidenvaccines.html
18 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment). 2014. Recommendation of the Council on the
Governance of Critical Risks. https://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/
recommendation-on-governance-of-critical-risks.htm
19 Smith-Bingham, R. 2021. Partnering with purpose: Strengthening
national-level resilience in the UK through more dynamic publicprivate interactions. National Preparedness Commission &Marsh McLennan. https://www.marshmclennan.com/content/
dam/mmc-web/insights/publications/2021/november/Marsh_
McLennan-National_Preparedness_Commission_Partnering-withPurpose_vF.pdf
20 OECD. 2018. Assessing Global Progress in the Governanceof Critical Risks. OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies.
https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264309272-en
21 OECD. 2020. Stocktaking report on immediate public
procurement and infrastructure responses to COVID-19. Updated
24 June. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/
stocktaking-report-on-immediate-public-procurement-andinfrastructure-responses-to-covid-19-248d0646/#sectiond1e2236
22 Caminiti, S. 2021. “What cybersecurity leaders say they needfrom the federal government”. CNBC. 25 August 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/what-cybersecurity-leaders-saythey-need-from-the-federal-government.html
23 EIOPA (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions
Authority). 2021. “EIOPA staff paper on measures to improve theinsurability of business interruption risk in light of pandemics”.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/eiopa-staffpaper-on-measures-to-improve-insurability.pdf

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24 Smith-Bingham, R. 2021. Op. Cit
25 OECD. 2021. Building Resilience: New Strategies forStrengthening Infrastructure Resilience and Maintenance. https://www.oecd.org/g20/topics/infrastructure/Building-InfrastructureResilience-OECD-Report.pdf
26 Financial Services Regulatory Initiatives Forum. 2021. Regulatory
Initiatives Grid. November 2021. https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/
corporate/regulatory-intitiatives-grid-november-2021.pdf
27 World Economic Forum. 2021. “Data-Driven Economies:
Foundations for Our Common Future”. White Paper. April 2021.
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_WP_DCPI_2021.pdf
28 Asseri, A. H., Abilkasimov, M., Frio, D. and Beato, F. 2021.
“Managing third-party risks? Here’s how a holistic approach canhelp”. World Economic Forum Agenda. 30 September 2021.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/09/managing-thirdparty-risks-heres-how-a-holistic-approach-can-help/
29 MedTech Europe. 2020. “MedTech Europe Code Guidance on
COVID-19 Emergency Support”. 27 March 2020. https://www.
medtecheurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MTE_code_
guidance_compliance_covid19.pdf
30 Hariharan, K., Rudoy, J. and Friedman, L. 2021. “Howbusinesses can improve the health of societies”. BRINK. 13
July 2021. https://www.brinknews.com/how-businesses-canimprove-the-health-of-societies/
31 Rosenberg, S. and Fried, I. 2021. “The government-industry
cyberdefense dance”. Axios. 26 August 2021. https://www.
axios.com/cybersecurity-summit-biden-government-industrye8185e32-0346-40e5-af4f-6cd79f93cbb9.html
32 See, e.g., Zurich Insurance Group. 2021. "The Zurich Flood
Resilience Alliance". https://floodresilience.net/zurich-floodresilience-alliance/
33 Dilanian, K. and De Luce, D. 2020. “Trump administration’slack of a unified coronavirus strategy will cost lives, say a dozen
experts”. NBC News. 3 April 2020. https://www.nbcnews.
com/politics/donald-trump/trump-administration-s-lack-unifiedcoronavirus-strategy-will-cost-lives-n1175126
34 Rojas, C.R., Richards, C. and Rhodes, C. 2021. Pathways to
Linking Science and Policy in the Field of Global Risk. Centre
for the Study of Existential Risk. University of Cambridge. 23
April 2021. https://www.cser.ac.uk/news/new-report-pathwayslinking-science-and-policy-fie/

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Appendices
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APPENDIX A

Descriptions of Global Risks 2022
Global Risks
A “global risk” is the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition that, if it occurs, could cause significant
negative impact for several countries or industries. For the purposes of this report, the scope is over the next 10 years.

Environmental

Economic

To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks have been abbreviated in the figures. The portion of the full nameused in the abbreviation is in bold.
Global Risk

Description

Asset bubble bursts inlarge economies

Prices for housing, investment funds, shares and other assets in a large economy
increasingly disconnect from the real economy

Collapse ofa systemicallyimportant industry

Collapse of a systemically important global industry or firm with an impact on the global
economy, financial markets and/or society

Debt crises in large
economies

Corporate and/or public finances overwhelmed by debt accumulation and/or debt
servicing in large economies, resulting in mass bankruptcies, defaults, insolvency, liquidity
crises or sovereign debt crises

Failure to stabilize pricetrajectories

Inability to control an unmanageable increase (inflation) or decrease (deflation) in thegeneral price level of goods and services

Proliferation of illicit
economic activity

Global proliferation of informal and/or illegal activities that undermine economic
advancement and growth: counterfeiting, illicit financial flows, illicit trade, tax evasion,
human trafficking, organized crime etc.

Prolonged economic
stagnation

Near-zero or slow global growth lasting for many years

Severe commodity
shocksAbrupt shocks to the supply and demand of systemically important commodities at
a global scale that strain corporate, public and/or household budgets: chemicals,
emissions, energy, foods, metals, minerals etc.

Biodiversity loss andecosystem collapse

Irreversible consequences for the environment, humankind, and economic activity, and apermanent destruction of natural capital, as a result of species extinction and/or reduction

Climate action failure

Failure of governments and businesses to enforce, enact or invest in effective climatechange adaptation and mitigation measures, preserve ecosystems, protect populations
and transition to a carbon-neutral economy

Extreme weather
eventsLoss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss
at a global scale as a result of extreme weather events: cold fronts, fires, floods, heatwaves, windstorms etc.

Human-madeenvironmental damage

Loss of human life, financial loss and/or damage to ecosystems as a result of humanactivity and/or failure to co-exist with animal ecosystems: deregulation of protectedareas, industrial accidents, oil spills, radioactive contamination, wildlife trade etc.

Major geophysicaldisasters

Loss of human life, financial loss and/or damage to ecosystems as a result ofgeophysical disasters: earthquakes, landslides, geomagnetic storms, tsunamis, volcanic
activity etc.

Natural resource crises

Chemical, food, mineral, water or other natural resource crises at a global scale as aresult of human overexploitation and/or mismanagement of critical natural resources

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GeopoliticalSocietal

Collapse of amultilateral institution

Dissolution of a global multilateral institution established to resolve economic,
environmental, geopolitical and/or humanitarian crises with regional or global implications:border disputes, environmental commitments, migration crises, health emergencies,
trade disputes etc.

Fracture of interstate
relations

Economic, political and/or technological rivalries between geopolitical powers resulting ina fracture of bilateral relations and/or growing tensions

Geoeconomic
confrontations

Deployment of economic levers, including investment controls, trade controls, non-tariffbarriers and/or currency measures, by global or regional powers to decouple economic
interactions between nations and consolidate spheres of influence

Geopoliticalcontestation ofstrategic resources

Concentration, exploitation and/or mobility restriction by a state of goods, knowledge,
services or technology critical to human development with the intent of gaining
geopolitical advantage

Interstate conflict

Belligerent bilateral or multilateral conflict between states with global consequences:
biological, chemical, cyber and/or physical attacks, military interventions, proxy wars etc.

State collapse

Collapse of a state with global geopolitical importance as a result of internal conflict,breakdown of rule of law, erosion of institutions, military coup, regional or global instability

Terrorist attacks

Large-scale, scattered or isolated terrorist attacks carried out by individuals or non-stategroups with ideological, political or religious goals, resulting in loss of life, severe injury
and/or material damage

Weapons of mass
destruction

Deployment of biological, chemical, cyber, nuclear or radiological weapons, resulting inloss of life, destruction and/or international crises

Collapse or lack ofsocial security systems

Non-existence or widespread bankruptcy of social security systems and/or erosion ofsocial security benefits: disability, elderly, family, injury, maternity, medical care, sickness,survivor, unemployment etc.

Employment andlivelihood crises

Structural deterioration of work prospects and/or standards for the working-age
population: unemployment, underemployment, lower wages, fragile contracts, erosion ofworker rights etc.

Erosion of social
cohesion

Loss of social capital and a fracture of social networks negatively impacting social
stability, individual well-being and economic productivity as a result of persistent publicanger, distrust, divisiveness, lack of empathy, marginalization of minorities, politicalpolarization etc.

Failure of public
infrastructure

Unequitable and/or insufficient public infrastructure and services as a result of
mismanaged urban sprawl, poor planning and/or under-investment, negatively impacting
economic advancement, education, housing, public health, social inclusion and theenvironment

Infectious diseases

Massive and rapid spread of viruses, parasites, fungi or bacteria that cause an
uncontrolled contagion of infectious diseases, resulting in an epidemic or pandemic withloss of life and economic disruption

Large-scale involuntary
migration

Large-scale involuntary migration induced by climate change, discrimination, lack of
economic advancement opportunities, persecution, natural or human-made disasters,
violent conflict etc.

Pervasive backlash
against science

Censure, denial and/or scepticism towards scientific evidence and the scientificcommunity at a global scale, resulting in a regression or stalling of progress on climate
action, human health and/or technological innovation

Pollution-driven harms
to human health

Physical and mental health impacts from harmful chemical or other particulates in the air,water or food, which may stem from energy generation, industrial and agricultural practices,waste management failures, natural disasters, human behaviour and other sources

Severe mental healthdeterioration

Pervasiveness of mental health ailments and/or disorders globally and across multiple
demographics, negatively impacting well-being, social cohesion and productivity: anxiety,dementia, depression, loneliness, stress etc.

Widespread youth
disillusionment

Youth disengagement, lack of confidence and/or loss of trust of existing economic,
political and social structures at a global scale, negatively impacting social stability,
individual well-being and economic productivity

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Technological

Adverse outcomes oftechnological advances

Intended or unintended negative consequences of technological advances on
individuals, businesses, ecosystems and/or economies: AI, brain-computer interfaces,
biotechnology, geo-engineering, quantum computing etc.

Breakdown ofcritical information
infrastructure

Deterioration, saturation or shutdown of critical physical and digital infrastructure orservices as a result of a systemic dependency on cyber networks and/or technology: AIintensive systems, internet, hand-held devices, public utilities, satellites etc.

Digital inequality

Fractured and/or unequal access to critical digital networks and technology, between
and within countries, as a result of unequal investment capabilities, lack of necessary
skills in the workforce, insufficient purchase power, government restrictions and/or
cultural differences

Digital power
concentration

Concentration of critical digital assets, capabilities and/or knowledge by a reduced
number of individuals, businesses or states, resulting in discretionary pricing
mechanisms, lack of impartial oversight, unequal private and/or public access etc.

Failure of cybersecurity
measuresBusiness, government and household cybersecurity infrastructure and/or measures
are outstripped or rendered obsolete by increasingly sophisticated and frequentcybercrimes, resulting in economic disruption, financial loss, geopolitical tensions and/or
social instability

Failure of technology
governanceLack of globally accepted frameworks, institutions or regulations for the use of critical
digital networks and technology, as a result of different states or groups of states
adopting incompatible digital infrastructure, protocols and/or standards

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APPENDIX B

Executive Opinion Survey: National
Risk Perceptions
Table B.1 presents the top five risks for each of the 124
economies surveyed by the World Economic Forum’s
Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) between May and
September 2021. Over 12,000 leaders answered thefollowing question: “What five risks will pose a criticalthreat to your country in the next two years?” and wereasked to select these from a list of 35 risks, with noparticular order. “Risk 1” indicates the most frequently
selected risk in each economy. Where there is a tie, thetied risks are presented alphabetically in the same cell,
separated by a dotted line (“---”) and the next cell in therow contains an ellipsis (“…”). For example, in Armenia,
two risks (“human-made environmental damage” and“large-scale involuntary migration”) are tied for third place
and there is therefore no risk in fourth place.

The question posed to EOS respondents iscomparable to the following question asked to GRPS
respondents: “Please identify your top five global risksof concern [that will become a critical threat to theworld] over the next 0–2 years”. The list of 35 risks to
select from in the EOS is also comparable to the listof risks in the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS),
except for two new risks that were added to the
GRPS after the EOS was conducted—“geoeconomic
confrontations” and “pollution-driven harms to humanhealth”—and one risk that changed name from“geopolitization of strategic resources” in the EOS to“geopolitical contestation of strategic resources” in
the GRPS (see Appendix C, Global Risks Perception
Survey Technical Notes).

TA B L E B . 1

Top Five Risks Identified by the Executive Opinion Survey
EconomyRisk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5

Albania

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure ofcybersecurity
measures

Debt crises inlarge economies

Infectious
diseases

AngolaEmployment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Human-madeenvironmental
damageState collapse

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Argentina

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

State collapse

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Digital inequality

Armenia

Australia

Interstate conflict

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Extreme weather
eventsHuman-madeenvironmental
damageFailure ofcybersecurity
measures…

Large-scale
involuntary
migration
Climate action
failureFracture ofinterstate
relations
Infectious
diseases

Debt crises inlarge economies

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Economy

Austria

Risk 1

Climate action
failureRisk 2

Erosion of social
cohesion

Risk 3

Debt crises inlarge economies

Risk 4

Risk 5

Digital power
concentration

Prolonged
economicstagnation
Extreme weather
eventsClimate action
failureAzerbaijan

Natural resource
crisesAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Debt crises inlarge economies

Collapse ofa multilateral
institution…
Human-madeenvironmental
damageInfectious
diseases

Bahrain

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Debt crises inlarge economies
Failure ofcybersecurity
measures…

Infectious
diseases

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality
Bangladesh

Barbados

Employment andlivelihood crises

Extreme weather
eventsGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Prolonged
economicstagnation…

Human-madeenvironmental
damageEmployment andlivelihood crises

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Climate action
failureDebt crises inlarge economies

Extreme weather
eventsBenin

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Severecommodity
shocksBolivia

Employment
and livelihood
crisesProliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Belgium

Climate action
failureFailure ofcybersecurity
measures
Climate action
failureInfectious
diseases

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies…
Fracture ofinterstate
relations
Pervasive
backlash against
science

Erosion of social
cohesion…

State collapse

Digital inequality
Human-madeenvironmental
damageThe Global Risks Report 2022

97

Economy

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3…

Employment
and livelihood
crisesHuman-madeenvironmental
damageRisk 4

Risk 5

Digital inequality

Prolonged
economicstagnation…
Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Botswana

Employment andlivelihood crises

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Debt crises inlarge economies

BrazilProlonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Human-madeenvironmental
damageGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Brunei
Darussalam

Employment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Failure oftechnology
governance

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure ofcybersecurity
measures

Bulgaria

Human-madeenvironmental
damageCambodia

Human-madeenvironmental
damageInfectious
diseases

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Debt crises inlarge economies
Interstate conflict…
Employment andlivelihood crises

Adverseoutcomes oftechnologicaladvances

Biodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse…

Infectious
diseases

Debt crises inlarge economies

Cameroon

Employment andlivelihood crises

Terrorist attacks

Debt crises inlarge economies

Human-madeenvironmental
damageNatural resource
crisesCanadaDebt crises inlarge economies

Climate action
failureExtreme weather
eventsEmployment andlivelihood crises

Infectious
diseases
Biodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse

Employment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Human-madeenvironmental
damageDebt crises inlarge economies

Chad

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Breakdownof criticalinformation
infrastructure

Terrorist attacks

Human-madeenvironmental
damageChile

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Erosion of social
cohesion

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

State collapse

Extreme weather
eventsCape Verde

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

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98

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5China

Extreme weather
eventsAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Infectious
diseases

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Colombia

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

State collapse

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Biodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse

Employment andlivelihood crises…

Congo
Human-madeenvironmental
damageInterstate conflict…

Digital inequality

State collapse

Debt crises inlarge economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Côte
d’Ivoire

Terrorist attacks

Debt crises inlarge economies

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageCroatia

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Digital inequality

Human-madeenvironmental
damageWidespreadyouth
disillusionment

Costa Rica

State collapse
Extreme weather
eventsAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies
CyprusClimate action
failureDebt crises inlarge economies

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Infectious
diseases…

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Czech
Republic

Denmark

Debt crises inlarge economies

Climate action
failureCollapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry
Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Infectious
diseases

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories…

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Debt crises inlarge economies

Infectious
diseases

Digital inequality
Dominican
Republic

Extreme weather
eventsEmployment andlivelihood crises

Debt crises inlarge economies

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures…

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99

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5

EcuadorCollapse or lackof social security
systems

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Digital inequality

Egypt

Natural resource
crisesInfectious
diseases

Debt crises inlarge economies

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Employment andlivelihood crises

El Salvador

Prolonged
economicstagnation

State collapse

Extreme weather
eventsEmployment andlivelihood crises

Collapse or lackof social security
systems
Digital inequality

Estonia

Finland

Interstate conflict

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Debt crises inlarge economies

Debt crises inlarge economies

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies…

Human-madeenvironmental
damageClimate action
failureAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Infectious
diseases…

Climate action
failureFailure ofcybersecurity
measures

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Debt crises inlarge economies
FranceErosion of social
cohesion

GeorgiaInterstate conflict

Germany

Climate action
failureGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Digital inequality

Erosion of social
cohesion

Digital power
concentration

Debt crises inlarge economies…

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Extreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies

Interstate conflict

Digital inequality

Employment andlivelihood crises
Ghana

GreeceHuman-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

Fracture ofinterstate
relationsGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

The Global Risks Report 2022 100

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5
Erosion of social
cohesion

Guatemala

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

State collapse

Extreme weather
eventsFailure of public
infrastructure

HondurasState collapse

Employment andlivelihood crises

Extreme weather
eventsProliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Hong Kong
SAR, China

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Infectious
diseases

Interstate conflict

Erosion of social
cohesion

Hungary

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Extreme weather
eventsClimate action
failureInfectious
diseases

Fracture ofinterstate
relations…

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Iceland

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies
Climate action
failureIndia

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Iran

Human-madeenvironmental
damageEmployment andlivelihood crises

IsraelFailure ofcybersecurity
measures

Terrorist attacks

Infectious
diseases

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Failure oftechnology
governanceDigital inequality…

Employment andlivelihood crises

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Natural resource
crisesBiodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse

Climate action
failureIreland…

Debt crises inlarge economies

Debt crises inlarge economies
Indonesia

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Human-madeenvironmental
damage…

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Debt crises inlarge economies
Prolonged
economicstagnation…

…

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Weapons ofmass destruction

Extreme weather
eventsGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Digital inequality

Interstate conflict
Climate action
failure…

Italy
Debt crises inlarge economies

The Global Risks Report 2022 101

EconomyJapan

JordanRisk 1

Risk 2

Kenya

Risk 4

Risk 5Extreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Natural resource
crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories…

Severecommodity
shocksInterstate conflict

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Debt crises inlarge economies

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Employment andlivelihood crises

Interstate conflict

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises
Kazakhstan

Risk 3

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Infectious
diseases…

Terrorist attacks

Republic of
Korea

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Employment andlivelihood crises…
Infectious
diseases

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Failure oftechnology
governance…

KuwaitCollapse or lackof social security
systems

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PDR

Employment andlivelihood crises

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Debt crises inlarge economies

Human-madeenvironmental
damage…

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Interstate conflict

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure oftechnology
governance

Human-madeenvironmental
damageInfectious
diseases

Climate action
failureBiodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories
Breakdownof criticalinformation
infrastructure
Infectious
diseases

LatviaInterstate conflict

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Debt crises inlarge economies
Digital inequality

Prolonged
economicstagnation…

The Global Risks Report 2022 102

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

LebanonState collapse

Human-madeenvironmental
damageCollapse or lackof social security
systems

Lesotho

Digital inequality

Infectious
diseases

Climate action
failureLithuania

Luxembourg

MalawiInterstate conflict

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Risk 5

Debt crises inlarge economies
Prolonged
economicstagnation
Extreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies…

Human-madeenvironmental
damageAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies
Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Climate action
failure…

Digital inequality…

Debt crises inlarge economies
Human-madeenvironmental
damage…
Prolonged
economicstagnation

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity…

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Employment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Debt crises inlarge economies…

Debt crises inlarge economies

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Failure oftechnology
governance

Malta

Human-madeenvironmental
damageCollapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Mauritius

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Employment andlivelihood crises

Extreme weather
eventsErosion of social
cohesion

MexicoProliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Prolonged
economicstagnation

State collapse

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Moldova

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Large-scale
involuntary
migration

Interstate conflict

Extreme weather
eventsProliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Malaysia

Mali

Human-madeenvironmental
damageSeverecommodity
shocksRisk 4

Employment andlivelihood crises
Terrorist attacks

The Global Risks Report 2022 103

Economy

Risk 1

Mongolia

Human-madeenvironmental
damageRisk 2

Employment andlivelihood crises

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5

Prolonged
economicstagnation…

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Digital inequality

Human-madeenvironmental
damageState collapse

Montenegro

Employment andlivelihood crises

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Prolonged
economicstagnation

MoroccoNatural resource
crisesEmployment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Digital inequality

Extreme weather
eventsInterstate conflict

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Nepal

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Infectious
diseases

Netherlands

Climate action
failureErosion of social
cohesion

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Namibia

Extreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies
Digital inequality
Prolonged
economicstagnation

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies
New
Zealand

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Infectious
diseases

Climate action
failure…

…
Extreme weather
events

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Nicaragua

State collapse

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises…

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Extreme weather
eventsNigeria

Terrorist attacks

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageNorth
Macedonia

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure of public
infrastructure

Debt crises inlarge economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Digital inequality

Pakistan

Debt crises inlarge economies

Extreme weather
eventsFailure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Human-madeenvironmental
damageThe Global Risks Report 2022 104

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5

PanamaCollapse or lackof social security
systems

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Human-madeenvironmental
damageParaguay

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Digital inequality

Human-madeenvironmental
damagePeru

Philippines

PolandPortugalState collapse

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises
State collapse
Human-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Digital inequality

Extreme weather
eventsEmployment andlivelihood crises

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity
Failure of public
infrastructure

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Human-madeenvironmental
damageInfectious
diseases

Interstate conflict

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises…
Prolonged
economicstagnation

Digital inequality

Collapse or lackof social security
systems…

…

…

Large-scale
involuntary
migration

Employment andlivelihood crises

Severecommodity
shocksCollapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Qatar

Climate action
failureDigital inequality

Fracture ofinterstate
relations
Infectious
diseasesNatural resource
crisesDebt crises inlarge economies

Romania

Human-madeenvironmental
damageEmployment andlivelihood crises

RussianFederation

Interstate conflict

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources
Infectious
diseases

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Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5

RwandaEmployment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Extreme weather
eventsDigital inequality

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Saudi
ArabiaFailure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFracture ofinterstate
relations…

Interstate conflict
Prolonged
economicstagnation

Infectious
diseases

Digital inequality
Senegal

Employment andlivelihood crises

Debt crises inlarge economies

Terrorist attacks

Human-madeenvironmental
damageNatural resource
crisesSerbiaHuman-madeenvironmental
damageDebt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Sierra Leone

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Widespreadyouth
disillusionment

Singapore

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Infectious
diseases

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Climate action
failureSlovakia

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry…

Digital inequality

Collapse or lackof social security
systems

Debt crises inlarge economies
Human-madeenvironmental
damageSlovenia

Severecommodity
shocksGeopolitizationof strategic
resources

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

South Africa

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

State collapse

Spain

Employment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Extreme weather
eventsHuman-madeenvironmental
damageFailure of public
infrastructure…

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Climate action
failureDebt crises inlarge economies

Fracture ofinterstate
relations…

The Global Risks Report 2022 106

Economy

Risk 1

Sri Lanka

Human-madeenvironmental
damageDebt crises inlarge economies

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Terrorist attacks

SwedenRisk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5…

Digital inequality

Debt crises inlarge economies

Human-madeenvironmental
damage…

…

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Employment andlivelihood crises
Infectious
diseases
Climate action
failureDebt crises inlarge economies

Switzerland

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Fracture ofinterstate
relationsGeopolitizationof strategic
resources
Interstate conflict
Geopolitizationof strategic
resources

Infectious
diseases

Extreme weather
eventsInterstate conflict

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Extreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Human-madeenvironmental
damageThailand

Debt crises inlarge economies

Human-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

Digital inequality

Employment andlivelihood crises

Trinidad andTobagoProlonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Digital inequality

Collapse of asystemicallyimportantindustry

Extreme weather
eventsTunisia

State collapse

Debt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

TurkeyEmployment andlivelihood crises

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Fracture ofinterstate
relations

Human-madeenvironmental
damageFailure oftechnology
governanceTaiwan,China

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Employment andlivelihood crises…
Infectious
diseases
Climate action
failure…
Infectious
diseases

The Global Risks Report 2022 107

Economy

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

Risk 5…

…

Climate action
failureUkraineProlonged
economicstagnation

State collapse

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories
Interstate conflict
Debt crises inlarge economies

Climate action
failureUnited ArabEmirates

Infectious
diseases

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

UnitedKingdom

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures

Debt crises inlarge economies

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Infectious
diseases

Extreme weather
eventsUnitedStatesAsset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Climate action
failureExtreme weather
eventsDebt crises inlarge economies

Employment andlivelihood crises

Uruguay

Severecommodity
shocks

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Employment andlivelihood crises

Extreme weather
eventsCollapse or lackof social security
systems

Venezuela

State collapse

Prolonged
economicstagnation

Human-madeenvironmental
damageLarge-scale
involuntary
migration

Proliferation ofillicit economic
activity

Viet Nam

Biodiversity loss
and ecosystem
collapse

Asset bubble
bursts in large
economies

Failure ofcybersecurity
measures…
Employment andlivelihood crises

Extreme weather
eventsInfectious
diseases

Geopolitizationof strategic
resources…

Employment andlivelihood crises
Yemen

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

State collapse

Failure of public
infrastructureInterstate conflict…

Natural resource
crisesZambiaEmployment andlivelihood crises

Debt crises inlarge economies

Failure tostabilize pricetrajectories

Human-madeenvironmental
damageProlonged
economicstagnation

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APPENDIX C

Technical Notes: Global Risks
Perception Survey 2021–2022
The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) is theWorld Economic Forum’s source of original risks
data, harnessing the expertise of the Forum’s
extensive network of academic, business,government, civil society and thought leaders.
Survey responses were collected from 8 September
to 12 October 2021 from the World Economic
Forum’s multistakeholder communities (including
the Global Shapers Community), the professional
networks of its Advisory Board, and members of theInstitute of Risk Management. The results of the GRPS
are used to create the graphics depicting the Global

Risks COVID-19 Hindsight, Future Outlook,
the Global Risks Horizon, Global Risks Severity,
Global Risks Effects and International Risk Mitigation
Efforts presented at the beginning of the report and tooffer insights used throughout.
Both the GRPS and the Global Risks Report adopt thefollowing definition: a global risk is the possibility of theoccurrence of an event or condition which, if it occurs,
could cause significant negative impact for several
countries or industries. For the purposes of this report,
the scope is over the next 10 years.

Updates in the GRPS 2021–2022
New list of risks
The list of 37 global risks included in the survey was
updated in 2021.
Two new risks were added in response to observed
economic, geopolitical and environmental trends. These
new risks are: (1) “Geoeconomic confrontations” and (2)“Pollution harms to human health”.
The names and definitions of the remaining 35 risks havebeen revised and, where applicable, have been modified
and/or expanded to reflect new ways in which the risks
may materialize and the potential adverse outcomes
they may cause. However, to ensure comparability overtime, although names and definitions were modified, thefundamental concept of the risk remained consistent
with that in previous versions of the survey.

New sections
The GRPS 2021–2022 was extensively reformed thisyear to gather fresher, broader and more informed risk
perceptions and to incorporate new approaches to risk
management and analysis. The GRPS 2021–2022 iscomprised of six sections:

1. COVID-19 Hindsight and Future Outlook (new):asks respondents to form an opinion about how the
COVID-19 pandemic aggravated risks, permittingsome comparability with GRPS results from previous
years. This opinion then facilitates the projection of
their views forward beyond the pandemic. This section
also captures respondent sentiment on the outlook
for the world to inform an analysis of how individual
contexts may influence global risk perceptions and theperceived status of mitigation efforts.
2. Global Risks Horizon: recognizes that respondents
may have varying perceptions on the evolution of
global risks within a 10-year horizon. This section
asks respondents to take a view on risks in the
short term (0–2 years), medium term (2–5 years) andlong term (5–10 years), also capturing respondents’sense of urgency about global risks and informing
an analysis of choices and trade-offs that may facedecision-makers.
3. Global Risks Severity (new): asks respondents torank the potential damage of a global risk over the
next 10 years and reminds respondents to consider
multiple criteria—including human suffering,societal disruption, economic shock, environmental
degradation and political instability. This section

The Global Risks Report 2022 109

uses ranking rather than a 1–5 rating scale toallow respondents to answer the question withmore confidence.
4. Global Risks Effects (new): recognizing thatrisks are not isolated but affect and amplify
each other through negative feedback loops,
this section incentivizes a holistic view of global
risks by asking respondents to consider cascading
impacts in conjunction with the severity of therisk itself.
5. Global Governance – International Risk
Mitigation Efforts (new): recognizing that risk

mitigation needs to be a part of the global agenda,
this section asks respondents to assess the current
state of international mitigation efforts in 15 global
governance areas. It identifies achievements
and areas of opportunity for global action andcooperation and informs an analysis of how thevarious stages of effectiveness may influence
future preparedness.
6. Open Questions (new): complements risk
identification with a series of questions to detect
blind spots, trends and shocks. This section
ensures that the GRPS is a flexible and engaging
mechanism to source expert knowledge.

Methodology
COVID-19 Hindsight & Future Outlook– Medium-term threats: 2–5 years

COVID-19 Hindsight:
For each of the 37 global risks listed in Appendix A,
respondents were asked to identify three global risks
that they believe had worsened since the start of the
COVID-19 crisis. A simple tally for each of the 37 global
risks was calculated on this basis. The results areillustrated in Figure I.

– Long-term threats: 5–10 years

Future Outlook:
Respondents were asked to express their feeling about
the outlook for the world in four sentiments: worried,concerned, positive, optimistic. A simple tally for eachof the four sentiments was calculated on this basis. The
results are illustrated in Figure 1.2.
Respondents were then asked to characterize their
outlook for the world over the next 3 years with thefollowing four answer options: accelerating global
recovery; fractured trajectories, separating winners
and losers; consistently volatile with multiple surprises;
progressive tipping points with increasing catastrophic
outcomes. A simple tally for each of the four sentiments
was calculated on this basis. The results are illustrated
in Figure 1.1.

Global Risks Horizon
For each of the 37 global risks listed in Appendix A,
respondents were asked to identify when they believe arisk will become a critical threat to the world, within thefollowing timeframes:– Short-term threats: 0–2 years

A simple tally for each of the 37 global risks wascalculated on this basis. the results are illustrated
in Figure II.

Global Risks Severity
For each of the 37 global risks listed in Appendix A,
respondents were asked to choose nine risks and rankorder them from 1 to 9 according to their perceived
severity of impact—“most severe” was defined ashaving the potential to yield the most damage on a
global scale within the next 10 years. Respondents
were asked to value the impact of risks considering
multiple criteria, including human suffering, societal
disruption, economic shock, environmental degradationand political instability.
The results were aggregated according to the following
scoring schedule:– 9 points each time a risk was selected as the most
severe risk
– 8 points each time a risk was selected as thesecond-most severe risk
– 7 points each time a risk was selected as the thirdmost severe risk
– 6 points each time a risk was selected as the fourthmost severe risk

The Global Risks Report 2022 110

– 5 points each time a risk was selected as the fifthmost severe risk
– 4 points each time a risk was selected as the sixthmost severe risk
– 3 points each time a risk was selected as seventhmost severe risk

The 15 international areas were: Artificial Intelligence(e.g., autonomous weapons, bias); Basic resource
security (food and water); Biodiversity preservation;
Climate change mitigation; Cross-border cyberattacks
and misinformation; Financial system stability; Human
health crises; International crime; Migration andrefugees; Natural disaster relief; Physical conflict
resolution; Poverty alleviation; Space exploitation; Tradefacilitation; Weapons of mass destruction.

– 2 points each time a risk was selected as theeighth-most severe risk
– 1 point each time a risk was selected as the ninthmost severe risk
A simple sum of the scores for each of the risks
according to the above scoring schedule wascalculated on this basis. The results are illustrated
in Figure 1.3.

Completion thresholds
A total of 1,183 responses to the GRPS were received.
From these, 959 were kept, using as a threshold atleast one non-demographic answer.
– Section 1 - COVID-19 Hindsight & Future
Outlook: 959 respondents selected the threeglobal risks.

Global Risks Effects– Future Sentiment: 957

In the Global Risks Severity component, for each of
the risks ranked most severe, second-most severe
and third-most severe, respondents were then asked
to select two risks that will be aggravated by those top
severe risks.

– Future Outlook: 957

A simple tally of the number of times a risk was
identified as being aggravated by another for each of
the most, second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-most severerisks was calculated on this basis. The results areillustrated in the Global Risks Effects (Figure III).
In the Global Risks Effects graph, the size of each of
the most concerning risk nodes is scaled according to
the above scoring schedule. The thickness of each of
the links between a risk and the risks being aggravatedis scaled according to the above tally.

Global Governance – International Risk
Mitigation Efforts
From 15 international risk areas listed below,
respondents were asked to rate the state each area
was with regard to international risk mitigation efforts:“not started”, “early development”, “established”,
or “effective”.
A simple tally for each of the four possible states wascalculated on this basis. The results are illustrated in
Figure IV.

– Section 2 - Global Risks Horizon: 926 (0–2 years);
912 (2–5 years); 904 (5–10 years) respondents
placed at least one risk within a possible timeframe.
The results were computed among all respondentsof the survey.
– Section 3 - Global Risks Severity: 893
respondents; 888 ranked at least one severe risk
and assigned at least one driver.
– Section 4 - Global Risks Effects: 837 respondents
identified at least one risk aggravating another.
– Section 5 – Global Governance – International
Risk Mitigation Efforts: 829 (climate change)
respondents scored at least one level of response,
either global or regional. The results were computed
among all respondents of each risk area within
the section.
– Sample distribution: the 959 respondents from
Section 1 were used to calculate the sample
distribution by place of residence (region), gender,
age, area of expertise and institution.
Figure C.1 presents some key descriptive statistics andinformation about the profiles of the respondents.

The Global Risks Report 2022 111

TA B L E C . 1

Survey Sample Composition
Age group
N/A Other
1% 0%

28%

27%
Female34%

20%

Gender
11%
7%

Male
64%

2%
30–39

<30

40–49

50–59

60–69

69<

5%

N/A

Region44%

Business
41%

Business

15%

13%

10%

6%

EuropeNorth
Latin
America America
and theCaribbeanNon-business
59%

2%

Organization

Other
20%

Other

N/A
3%

Economics
21%

Environment
9%

NGO
10%

Academia
17%

Business
41%

Risks
8%
International
Organizations

9%
Geopolitics
9%

2%

South
East
PreferSubEurasia Middle
SaharanEast
Asia
Asia and not toAfricaand Norththe Pacific answer
AfricaExpertiseTechnology
16%

3%

6%

Government
16%

Society
13%

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2021–2022

The Global Risks Report 2022 112

Acknowledgements
REUTERS/TYRONE SIU

The Global Risks Report 2022 113

Contributors
Emilio Granados Franco
Head of Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Melinda Kuritzky
Lead, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Richard Lukacs
Specialist, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Saadia Zahidi
Managing Director, World Economic ForumAt the World Economic Forum, a debt of gratitudeis owed to Professor Klaus Schwab (Founder andExecutive Chairman) and Børge Brende (President),
under whose guidance this report has been produced.
This report has relied heavily on the dedication andexpertise of the World Economic Forum Platform for
Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society as
well as other members of the Global Risks Report 2022
team: Aidan Manktelow, Jordynn McKnight, Giovanni
Salvi, Jean-Philippe Stanway, Samuel Werthmüller andYann Zopf.
*****
We would like to thank our Strategic Partners, Marsh
McLennan, SK Group, and Zurich Insurance Group, andparticularly Daniel Glaser (President and Chief Executive
Officer, Marsh McLennan), Chey Tae-won (Chairman
and CEO, SK Group) and Mario Greco (Chief Executive
Officer, Zurich Insurance Group). Thanks also to Carolina
Klint (Managing Director, Risk Management Leader
Continental Europe, Marsh), Lee Hyunghee (President,
Social Value Committee, SK Group) and Peter Giger(Group Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Insurance Group).
Special gratitude is due to Guillaume Barthe-Dejean(Director, Chairman’s Office, SK Group), John Scott(Head of Sustainability Risks, Zurich Insurance Group)
and Richard Smith-Bingham (Executive Director,
Marsh McLennan Advantage) for their contributions
throughout the planning and drafting of the report.
We are also grateful to our three Academic Advisers:
the National University of Singapore, the Oxford Martin
School at the University of Oxford and the Wharton
Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at
the University of Pennsylvania.

The report has greatly benefited from the insightand expertise of the members of the Global Risks
Report Advisory Board: Rolf Alter (Hertie Schoolof Governance), Gabriella Bucher (Oxfam), Sharan
Burrow (International Trade Union Confederation),
Winnie Byanyima (UNAIDS), Marie-Valentine Florin(International Risk Governance Center), Charles
Godfray (Oxford Martin School), Al Gore (Generation
Investment Management), Lee Hyunghee (President,
Social Value Committee, SK Group), Carolyn Kousky(Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes
Center), Pascal Lamy (Jacques Delors Institute), Robert
Muggah (Igarapé Institute), Moisés Naím (Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace), Carlos AfonsoNobre (University of São Paulo), Naomi Oreskes(Harvard University), Jonathan Ostry (International
Monetary Fund), Carol Ouko-Misiko (Institute of Risk
Management), Eduardo Pedrosa (Pacific Economic
Cooperation Council), Danny Quah (National Universityof Singapore), Daniel Ralph (Cambridge Centre for Risk
Studies), Samir Saran (Observer Research Foundation),John Scott (Zurich Insurance Group), Richard SmithBingham (Marsh McLennan), Effy Vayena (Swiss
Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Charlotte
Warakaulle (CERN), Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Graduate
Institute Geneva), Ngaire Woods (University of Oxford)
and Alexandra Zapata (New America).
We would also like to thank SalesForce (Natalia
Latimer, Vice President of Executive Engagement),
Tableau (Neal Myrick, Vice President of Social Impact)
and Lovelytics (Eric Balash) for the design of theinteractive global risks data visualization.
*****
We are grateful to the following individuals from our StrategicPartners, Academic Advisers and Risk Communities.
Marsh McLennan: Rob Bailey, Amy Barnes,
Francis Bouchard, Jerome Bouchard, Kate Bravery,
Darrel Chang, James Crask, Apoorv Dabral, Simon
Glynn, Garrett Hanrahan, Ben Hoster, Stephen Kay,
Christopher Labrecque, Siobhan O’Brien, Deepakshi
Rawat, Jillian Reid, Reid Sawyer, Chris Smy, Sarah
Stephens, Neil Frank Stevens and Scott Stransky.
Zurich Insurance Group: Paige Adams, Ines Bourbon,
Laura Castellano, John Corless, Oliver Stephen Delvos,
Daniel Eherer, Matt Holmes, Wen Lin, Sean McAllister,

The Global Risks Report 2022 114

Guy Miller, Eugenie Molyneux, Darren Nulty, Pavel
Osipyants, Timothy Powell and Alessio Vinci.

Matthew Snyder (Centene Corporation), Jacob van der
Blij (GAVI), Susan Yasher (Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Limited) and Yong Seop Yum (SK Group).

SK Group: Ilbum Kim.
*****
National University of Singapore: Tan Eng Chyeand Ho Teck Hua.

A special thanks to experts who contributed to ourthematic and regional consultations.

Oxford Martin School: Julian Laird.
Wharton: Howard Kunreuther.
Global Future Council on Frontier Risks: Eric
Parrado (Inter-American Development Bank, Council
Co-Chair), Ngaire Woods (University of Oxford,
Council Co-Chair), Clarissa Rios Rojas (University ofCambridge, Council Fellow), Deborah Ashby (Imperial
College London), Elhadj As Sy (Kofi Annan Foundation),
Nayef Al-Rodhan (University of Oxford), GuillaumeBarthe-Dejean (SK Group), Nita A. Farahany (Duke
University), Pascale Fung (Hong Kong University of
Science and Technology), Alexander Gabuev (Carnegie
Moscow Center), Florence Gaub (EU Institute for
Security Studies), Sergei Guriev (Sciences Po), Orit
Halpern (Concordia University), Maha Hosain Aziz
(New York University), Meng Ke (Tsinghua University),
Patricia Lerner (Greenpeace International), Liu Meng
(UN Global Compact), Amrita Narlikar (German Institutefor Global and Area Studies), Maria Soledad Nuñez
Mendez (UCOM University), Jake Okechukwu Effoduh(Global Shaper), Peter Piot (London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine), John Scott (Zurich InsuranceGroup), Richard Smith-Bingham (Marsh McLennan),
Tatiana Valovaya (United Nations Geneva), Gail
Whiteman (Lancaster University Management School),
Michele Wucker (Gray Rhino & Company) and Daria
Zakharova (International Monetary Fund).
Chief Risk Officers Community: Stacy Allen (Lord
Abbott), Bob Blakely (Team 8), Christian Bluhm (UBS
AG), Brenda Boultwood (International Monetary Fund),Dzhangir Dzhangirov (Sberbank), Giancarlo Fancel(Generali), Sebastian Fritz-Morgenthal (Bain & Company
Inc.), Peter Giger (Zurich Insurance Group), Jan Hansen(Novartis), Bahare Heywood (Clifford Chance LLP),
Aaron Karczmer (PayPal), Alfred Kibe (Mastercard),
Cindy Levy (McKinsey & Company), Giselle Lim (Takeda
Pharmaceutical Company), Domingo Mirón (Accenture),
Jody Myers (The Western Union Company), Heike
Niebergall-Lackner (International Committee of
the Red Cross), Deepak Padaki (Infosys Limited),
Hanne Raatikainen (Office of the United Nations HighCommissioner for Refugees), Tad Roselund (Boston
Consulting Group), Nidhi Seksaria (Mahindra Group),
Taalib Shah (Barclays), Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder (World
Bank), Richard Smith-Bingham (Marsh McLennan),

Chapter 2
Alison Bewick (Nestlé), Jennifer Clazure (World
Economic Forum), Dzhangir Dzhangirov (Sberbank),
Charles Godfray (Oxford Martin), Brad Hall (Office of Al
Gore), Akanksha Khatri (World Economic Forum), Marie
Quinney (World Economic Forum), Graeme Riddell(Marsh Advisory) and Nidhi Seksaria (Mahindra Group).
Chapter 3
Paige H. Adams (Zurich Insurance), Kristian Burkhardt(Accenture), Jaya Baloo (Avast Software), Christian
Bluhm (UBS AG), Kristian Burkhardt (Accenture),
Daniel Dobrygowski (World Economic Forum), MarieValentine Florin (International Risk Governance Center),
Genevieve Gimbert (PwC), Akshay Joshi (World
Economic Forum), Joseph Nocera (PwC), Algirde
Pipikaite (World Economic Forum), Rafal Rohozinski(Secdev Group; Zeropoint Security), Vishal Salvi(Infosys), Dmitry Samartsev (BI.ZONE), Scott Stransky(Marsh McLennan) and Effy Vayena (Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology).
Chapter 4
Alexander Betts (Oxford University), Bina Desai (Internal
Displacement Monitoring Centre), Andrej Kirn (World
Economic Forum), Alfredo Malaret (United Nations
Institute for Disarmament Research), Marie McAuliffe(International Organization for Migration), Dilip Ratha(World Bank), Miriam Schive (World Economic Forum)and Amali Tower (Climate Refugees).
Chapter 5
Nayef Al-Rodhan (Oxford University), Nikolai Khlystov(World Economic Forum) and Jamie Morin (TheAerospace Corporation).
Europe: 7 July 2021
Alison Bewick (Nestlé), Catherine De Vries (Bocconi
University), Katie Henry (Ernest & Young), Louise
Marie Hurel (London School of Economics), Joachim
Isaacson (UK Armed Forces), Peter Kalotai (European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development), Quentin
Ladetto (Armasuisse), Pascal Lamy (Jacques Delors
Institute), Ian Livsey (Institute for Risk Management),
Esther Lynch (European Trade Union), Maurizio
Quintavalle (Marsh McLennan), Hanne Raatikainen(Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for

The Global Risks Report 2022 115

Refugees), Michael Sparrow (World MeteorologicalOrganization), Jacob Van der Blij (GAVI), Lisa Walker(Ecosphere+), Gail Whiteman (University of Exeter
Business School) and Susan Wilding (CIVICUS).
Latin America: 13 July 2021
Asdrubal Aguiar Aranguren (Democratic Initiative of
Spain and the Americas), Cynthia Arnson (Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars), RicardoÁvila (Portafolio/El Tiempo), Tiago Berriel (Banco
BTG Pactual), Luis Bravo (Breca), Antonio de Aguiar
Patriota (Government of Brazil), Paula Escobar (LaTercera), Marcela Escobari (Brookings Institution), Luis
Fernando Mejía (Fedesarrollo), Mónica Forero (Zurich
Insurance), Henrique Fragelli (Nubank), Rafaela Guedes
Monteiro (Petroleo Brasileiro), Gerardo Herrera (Marsh
McLennan), Enrique Iglesias (AstUr Foundation),
Joaquim Levy (Banco Safra), Valeria Moy (Mexican
Institute for Competitiveness), Alvin Ortega (Banco
Nacional de Panamá), Rafael Palacios Prado (Sociedad
de Fomento Fabril), Eric Parrado (InterAmerican
Development Bank), Luis Adrián Salazar (Universityof Costa Rica) and Arturo Sarukhan (Sarukhan +Associates LLC),
North America: 13 July 2021
Tegan Blaine (United States Institute of Peace), David
Bloom (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health),
Brenda Boultwood (International Monetary Fund), David
Bray (Atlantic Council), Jasmina Byrne (UNICEF), Alexis
Crow (PwC), Daniel Drezner (The Fletcher School at
Tufts University), Jean-Marie Guehenno (Columbia
University), Sherri Goodman (Wilson Center), Maha
Hosain Aziz (New York University), Aaron Karczmer(PayPal), Carolyn Kousky (Wharton Risk Center), Sonia
Kundi (Zurich Insurance Group), Robert Litwak (Wilson
Center), Robert Muggah (Igarapé Institute), Lakshmi
Shyam-Sunder (World Bank), Adam Tooze (Columbia
University), Olivia White (McKinsey & Company) andMichele Wucker (Gray Rhino & Company).

Anita Prakash (Economic Research Institute for
ASEAN), Danny Quah (Lee Kuan Yew School of
Public Policy, National University of Singapore), Steve
Rhee (Ford Foundation), Hersh Shah (Institute of Risk
Management, India Affiliate), Lutfey Siddiqi (National
University of Singapore, Risk Management Institute),
Anjhula Mya Singh Bais (Amnesty International), Louise
Tang (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National
University of Singapore), Chathuni Uduwela (TikTok),
Catherine Wong (Lloyd’s Register Foundation Institutefor the Public Understanding of Risk), Eden Woon
(Asian Institute of Technology) and Janson Yap (National
University of Singapore).
*****
In addition to those mentioned above, we extend
our thanks to the following colleagues for their timeand help: Marisol Argueta, Sophie Brown, Diego
Bustamante, Eoin Ó Cathasaigh, Arnaud Colin,
Roberto Crotti, Ana del Barrio, Attilio di Battista,
Beatrice Di Caro, Mirek Dušek, Jaci Eisenberg, Harry
Gray Calvo, Kateryna Gordiychuk, Nikhil Kamath,
Patrice Kreidi, Gayle Markovitz, Adrian Monck,
Nicholai Ozan, Jennifer Perez, Robin Pomeroy,
Eduardo Rezende, Katja Rouru, Kirsten Salyer,
Miriam Schive, Paul Smyke, Pierre Saouter,
Olga Spirina, Jackson Spivey and Vesselina
Stefanova Ratcheva.
Design and Production: Thank you to all those
involved in the design and production of this year’s
report. At the World Economic Forum: Sakshi
Bhatnagar, Javier Gesto, Floris Landi, Jordynn
McKnight, Liam Ó Cathasaigh and Jean-Philippe
Stanway. And our external collaborators:
Hope Steele (editing) and Andrew Wright (writingand editing). Special thanks to Patrik Svensson for
his artistic contributions.

Asia: 21 September 2021
Mushtak Al-Atabi (Heriot-Watt University), Kanti Bajpai(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National
University of Singapore), Adila Binte Shahrin (Lee Kuan
Yew School of Public Policy, National University ofSingapore), Tek Yew Chia (Oliver Wyman), Lee Geun
(Korea Foundation), Ziad Haider (McKinsey), Yee-Kuang
Heng (University of Tokyo), Debora Ianuzzi (Zurich
Insurance Group), Peter Jennings (Australian Strategic
Policy Institute), Olivia Jensen (Lloyd’s Register
Foundation Institute for the Public Understanding ofRisk), Prakash Kannan (Government of Singapore
Investment Corporation), Lynn Kuok (Shangri-La
Dialogue), Huong Le Thu (Australian Strategic Policy
Institute), Meng Liu (UN Global Compact China),

The Global Risks Report 2022 116

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