1 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

AHK
World Business Outlook
Spring 2022
Results of the Survey by the Network ofGerman Chambers of Commerce Abroad(AHKs)

2 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Development of the global economy
Economic expectations of German companies abroad
The global economy is in crisis mode. The effects of the coronavirus pandemic have not yet been fully overcome;rather, harsh lockdowns in China under the zero-covid policy in the spring are causing exacerbated problems in global
supply chains. Added to this is the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the economic consequences of which are clouding the
global economy and are also being felt by German companies at their international locations.
Only 21 percent of the more than 4,200 companies surveyed by the AHKs worldwide expect the economy to improve attheir respective locations. This is a halving since the last survey (41 percent). By contrast, the share of companies ex­
pecting a deterioration in local economic performance has more than doubled from 17 percent to 37 percent. The re­sulting balance of better and worse assessments has fallen from 24 points in autumn 2021 to the current minus 16
points. The 40-point slump in expectations is thus greater than at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic (at thattime, economic expectations plummeted by 36 points from autumn 2019 to spring 2020).
The gloomy economic expectations can be observed globally. However, there are differences between the world regi­
ons. In the Eastern and South-Eastern European states, which - after Ukraine - are most directly affected by the conse­
quences of the war, and in China, whose economy is suffering from the pandemic-related lockdowns, the negative
economic expectations are most pronounced. In the EU, some of whose states are highly dependent on Russian energy
imports, the outlook is also very negative. Only in North America (USA, Canada, Mexico) do more companies currently
expect an improvement in economic development than a deterioration.

Economic expectations of companies worldwide
better
100

17

80
60

51

21

53

22

51

18

56

constant
13
49

13
53

10

worse
25

32

26

27

26

38

34

65
48

40

34

36

50

40
20

27

Balance

27

49

0

17

17

32

42

37

33

47
25

24

21

33

42
47

41
21

10

-16

-20
-40
-60
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

-55
2020

2021

2022

3 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Business situation and expectations, investment and employment intentions
As the global economy worsens, expectations for the development of companies' own business abroad also decline. 42
percent expect better business in the next twelve months, 15 percent worse, 43 percent expect the development toremain the same. The resulting balance of better and worse evaluations sinks to 27 points, almost a halving comparedto the previous survey (50 points). The companies are more optimistic about their own business development thanabout the economic development of their host country as a whole. However, the subdued expectations have a negative
impact on planned capital expenditure, as the uncertainties for the coming months are high. Globally, 36 percent planhigher capital expenditure, while 18 percent intend to reduce their investments. The balance of higher and lower in­vestment spending falls from 29 points in the previous survey to 18 points. Employment intentions also fall: 37 per­cent of the companies worldwide want to increase their workforce, ten percent want to reduce it. The balance of hig­
her and lower employment plans falls from 38 points in the previous survey to 27 points.
Companies worldwide, however, assess their current business situation as predominantly good. 48 percent report agood business situation, only 11 percent a poor one. The resulting balance of good and poor assessments is only
slightly lower than in the previous survey (balance of 37 points after 41 points previously). For 41 percent, current bu­
siness is satisfactory.

German companies abroad
Balance in points

60
40

Situation
Expectations
Employment
Investments

20
0
-20
-40
-60
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

4 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Risks for German companies abroad
Commodity prices (55 percent) and energy prices (46 percent) continue to be among the biggest business risks for Ger­man companies abroad - especially in Europe. Due to supply problems and high global demand, the prices of individual
raw materials have already risen significantly since last year. High energy prices have been recorded by companies inparticular since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Compared to the previous survey, the risk of high energy prices
has increased particularly strongly by 23 percentage points.
Economic policy conditions are named as a business risk by 40 percent of the companies - especially in South andCentral America. The exchange rate risk has increased significantly compared to the previous survey (30 percent after
23 percent previously). Companies in Turkey (74 percent) and Argentina (67 percent) report it particularly frequently. In
both countries, inflation rates are very high and thus uncertainty about the future development of exchange rates.
29 percent of companies see labour costs as a risk factor for their business - more than at any time since 2015. Thismay be due to companies' concern that higher inflation rates will increase employees' wage demands. Due to the so­mewhat reduced employment intentions, the risk of a shortage of skilled workers loses slightly in importance com­pared to the previous survey (34 after previously 37 percent). The financing risk rises slightly - to 22 percent.
Fewer companies worldwide rate demand as a business risk than recently (34 percent, down from 37 percent in theprevious survey), reaching the lowest level since 2015. Despite a weakening global economy, supply-side bottlenecks
and risks appear to dominate over demand risks for companies. Companies in Greater China cite demand risk most fre­quently (49 percent).

Risks for the global economy in the coming twelve months
in percent, multiple answers possible
Raw material prices

44

Energy prices

46

23
40
40

Economic policy framework
Demand34

Lack of skilled workers

34

Exchange rate

23

Labor costs

24

Financing

22
20

Trade barriers

20
22
16
18

Legal certainty
Infrastructure

55

9
10

30

37
37
Spring 2022
Fall 202129

5 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Effects of the Russian invasion
to the Ukraine
The Russian attack on Ukraine affects the global economy through various channels - such as supply chain disrupti­
ons, price increases and increasing trade barriers - which are also felt by German companies at their international lo­
cations.

Impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on businesses
in percent, multiple answers possible
Higher costs for energy, raw materials and inputs

66%

Supply chain and logistics disruptions

53%

Lack of raw materials and inputs

39%

Reduction in incoming orders

24%

Increase in trade barriers

21%

Loss of business partners, severance of business relations

20%

Production stop/reduced production

17%

Increased legal uncertainty

15%

Obstacles in payment transactions

14%

None
Increase in new orders

9%5%

Higher production

3%

Other

3%

Increased costs for energy, raw materials and intermediate inputs are most frequently felt by companies (66 percent).
Companies in the Eurozone (77 percent) and in the group of other EU countries such as Hungary or Poland (74 per­cent) report this with above-average frequency. Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy imports - which is now
gradually being reduced. As a result of the war and the sanctions, companies are experiencing significant price in­creases. In a free text field, the companies had the opportunity to describe the economic consequences in more detail.
In addition to energy and raw material costs, the companies often mention increased transport costs.
At 53 percent, more than half of the companies report disruptions in the supply chain and logistics. Companies in the
Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) (61 percent), China (58 percent) and North America (60 percent), for example, feel
affected with above-average frequency. In addition to the disruptions in international supply chains caused by the
Russian invasion, the corona-related lockdowns in major Chinese cities are also making themselves felt in Asia. As aresult, there is slower clearance of container ships. 39 percent of German companies worldwide report a lack of raw
materials and inputs, 17 percent have to cut back or stop production. In the Eurozone, as many as 22 percent of com­panies have to cut back production. Among the companies reporting supply chain disruptions, as many as 55 percent
report missing materials and 26 percent report reduced production.
In addition to the challenges in their supply chains, companies feel other burdens on international business: 21 per­cent of companies perceive an increase in trade barriers related to the economic consequences of the war, 20 percent
report broken business relationships or the loss of business partners. 14 percent of companies experience obstacles in6 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

payment transactions and 15 percent report increased legal uncertainty. In general, these consequences are mentioned
more often by companies in EU countries than in other regions.
Due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, companies based there are particularly affected by restrictions in their inter­national business. Among them, 83 percent perceive an increase in trade barriers, 70 percent have lost business part­ners or broken off business relations themselves, two thirds (65 percent) feel obstacles in payment transactions andevery second company reports increased legal uncertainty. The sanctions include export bans on certain goods to theRussian Federation and numerous restrictions on the financial and capital markets for Russian players. Companies
with operations in Belarus - the country was also subject to sanctions related to the Russian invasion - also face an
above-average number of trade barriers (67 percent), loss of business partners (71 percent) and obstacles in paymenttransactions (60 percent).
Globally, only nine percent of companies do not perceive any impact in connection with the war in Ukraine. In Europe,
the impact is greater than in other regions of the world. In Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, only five percent ofcompanies feel no impact, in the Eurozone it is six percent. The lowest level of concern is in China, where 15 percent ofbusinesses say they do not feel any effects.
Overall, companies report great uncertainty about the future development of their business. Only for a few companies
does the impact of the war seem to have a positive effect on business. Five percent report an increase in new orders
and three percent report higher production. Slightly more often than average, companies in the US report higher neworders (six percent) and higher production (eight percent).

7 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Changes in the international division of labour
The majority of companies expect long-term changes in the international division of labour. Only the Corona pandemic
and the Russian war in Ukraine have caused many companies to revise their own strategies or change their perceptionof the political environment.
Only 13 percent do not expect anything to change in the current business model. The assumptions of the companies
differ between the regions as to whether there will be changes, and if so, what they will be. For example, one fifth ofthe companies based in Africa and the Near and Middle East do not expect any changes. In South and Central America,
the figure is 18 percent. Companies based in Greater China and the Eurozone, on the other hand, are more likely to
expect changes - only nine percent there expect the current situation to remain unchanged.

Expected long-term changes in the international division of labourin percent, multiple answers possible
36%

Change in transport routes
Termination or restrictions of business relationships in certain regions

35%

Increase in political influence on supply chains (e.g. throughlegislation, trade barriers)

34%

Changed risk assessment of locations

34%

Economic decoupling of world regions

27%

Increased diversification of suppliers

27%

Increase in protectionism/autonomous national economy

26%
22%

Relocation of branches/production to new locations
Relocation of branches/production closer to German/European homemarket16%
15%

Greater diversification of sales markets

13%

No changes
Other

2%

36 percent of German companies worldwide expect a change in transport routes. Companies in Great Britain (78 per­cent), Russia (74 percent) and China (53 percent) state this with above-average frequency. The current problems in in­
ternational logistics - e.g. container bottlenecks, lack of truck drivers - are forcing companies to reorganise their logis­
tics.
35 percent of companies will restrict business relationships in certain regions in the future, and over a third (34 per­cent) will revise the risk assessment for their international locations. This involves a reassessment of geopolitical risk
factors, as companies are doing in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also because of global decoupling
trends. It is also about factors such as how to deal with the containment of the coronavirus pandemic. For example, an
above-average number of companies, 57 percent in Hong Kong and 47 percent in Mainland China, cite a change in risk
assessment. The strict pandemic-related lockdowns and travel restrictions make it difficult for companies based there
to maintain operations. In Asia-Pacific (excluding China), companies are also more likely than average to reconsider
their risk assessment (42 percent).
Slightly more than a third of companies (34 percent) even expect an increase in political influence on their supply
chains, for example through legislation or trade barriers. This means that companies will increasingly have to take poli­tical factors into account in addition to purely business factors when making decisions about suppliers, transport

8 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

routes and production locations. Companies with a branch in Russia (74 percent) and China (42 percent) mention thisparticularly frequently. Companies in North America (29 percent) and South and Central America (25 percent) statethis somewhat less frequently than the global average.
More than a quarter of companies (27 percent) would like to diversify their suppliers more in the future. A larger supp­lier network or more regional distribution of suppliers can increase resilience in supply chains - but it also increases
the costs for the international division of labour. Especially in EU countries (plus Switzerland, Norway, UK) (34 percent),
the Eurozone (30 percent) and North America (32 percent), companies are focusing on greater diversification on the
supplier side. Diversification of sales markets, on the other hand, plays a somewhat lesser role (15 percent worldwide).
On the basis of various factors, it becomes clear that the companies expect regressions and new hurdles in the interna­
tional division of labour. A quarter (26 percent) of the companies expect an increase in protectionism or a self-suffi­
cient national economy of states, 27 percent expect an economic decoupling of world regions. Companies are depen­
dent on open markets and international cooperation to diversify their supply chains. Here, too, companies in Chineseand Russian locations are particularly concerned: 56 and 61 percent, respectively, expect more protectionism and 49
and 48 percent, respectively, expect a decoupling of world regions. Companies in South and Central America as well as
Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region perceive the tendencies towards more protectionism (21 and 18 percent
respectively) and economic decoupling (20 percent each) somewhat less frequently.
A change in the international division of labour is accompanied by companies deciding to possibly relocate their bran­ches or production to other locations. 22 percent of German companies worldwide are considering relocating to new
locations, 16 percent are specifically planning to move branches or production facilities closer to the European or Ger­man home market. In view of the high costs associated with setting up new locations, the share of companies withthese plans must be considered quite high. In China, after all, one in eight German companies and in the USA only one
in 20 German companies are planning to relocate closer to the European or German home market.

9 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

The world regions in the spotlight
EuropeWithin Europe, companies' economic expectations are predominantly ne­
gative. The economic consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine are par­ticularly noticeable for companies in this region due to their geographicalproximity. Compared to other regions, expectations have dimmed the mostcompared to the previous survey. This is mainly due to higher energy andcommodity prices, which companies in the euro area cite as a risk more
often than the global average.

Top risks Eurozone
60% Raw material prices
60% Energy prices
43% Shortage of skilled workers

16 percent of companies in the euro area expect the economy to improve in the next twelve months, while two out offive expect a slowdown (balance minus 25 points). In the group of other EU countries (plus Switzerland, the United
Kingdom, Norway), 16 percent expect an improvement and 47 percent a deterioration (balance minus 31 points).
Analogous to the gloomier economic expectations, expectations for the development of their own business are also
declining. 36 percent of companies with branches in the Eurozone and 39 percent of companies in other EU countries
expect a positive business development in the next twelve months. In the Eurozone, on the other hand, slightly morecompanies (19 percent) expect a deterioration (balance 17 points) than in the other EU states (14 percent, balance 25
points). Business expectations are thus below the global average. In the Eurozone, 34 percent of the companies plan toexpand their investments, 19 percent want to reduce them (balance 15 points). In the rest of the EU, 36 percent plan toincrease investments in the coming months and 14 percent to reduce them (balance 22 points). Companies' employ­ment intentions fall to 23 (euro area) and 33 points (other EU).
Compared to autumn 2021, the business situation is worsening - but companies with a good business situation stillclearly predominate. 46 percent of companies in the Eurozone are currently doing good business, only one in ten bad(balance 36 points). In the rest of the EU, 55 percent of companies are doing good business and only six percent are
doing bad business (balance 49 points),

Economic expectations in the euro area
better
11
70
20

54
35

13
57
30

17
57
26

14
62
24

11
50
39

unchanging
12

9

52

50

36

23
54

41

23

bad
29

Balance
35

41
72

50
21

15

35

42

43

43

32

49
16

22

19
9

27

41
43
16
-25

-30
-63
-80
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

10 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (without EU), Russia, Turkey
The economic expectations of companies in Eastern and South Eastern Eu­
rope are very negative.1 Only twelve percent of the companies expect an
improvement in the coming months; 54 percent expect a deterioration of
the economy at their locations (balance minus 42 points). On the one hand,the economic outlook in Russia (balance minus 78 points) and Belarus (ba­lance minus 93 points) is particularly negative due to the sanctions impo­
sed and the resulting economic disengagement from many countries. On
the other hand, the other countries in the region are particularly affectedby the economic consequences of the Russian war due to their geographi­
cal proximity - similar to the EU and the Eurozone.

Top risks Eastern and South-Eastern
Europe (without EU), Russia, Turkey
47% Raw material prices
47% Energy prices
39% Economic policy framework condi­
tions

With regard to business expectations, positive and negative voices almost balance each other out. 30 percent of thecompanies in the region expect a better and 27 percent a worse development of their own business (balance of threepoints).
The investment intentions of the Eastern and South-Eastern European countries are the lowest in a global comparisonand shrink the most significantly compared to the previous survey. 30 percent with increasing investment plans arecompared to 29 percent with lower investment plans (balance of one point). The negative investment intentions are
particularly marked by companies in Russia (balance minus 60 points) and Belarus (balance minus 70 points). Here, theuncertainty about the future development of the locations against the background of the sanctions imposed is notice­able. Employment plans also fall most significantly compared to autumn 2021: 32 percent want to hire more staff, 19
percent less (balance 13 points after previously 41 points).

Economic expectations
better

70

35
49

20

16

45
40
15

25

18

50

51

49

19

24

31

consistent
19
56

19

39

56
47

33

25

25

14

bad
22
59
19

Balance
26
78
61
13

51

30

25

40

48

30

27

33
15
7

16

-30

34
12
-42

-80
2015

1

54

2016

2017

2018

2019

-71
2020

2021

2022

This survey does not include results from Ukraine - otherwise part of this group of countries. Therefore, the results are not fully comparablewith those of the previous survey.

11 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

RussiaIn view of the sanctions imposed on Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, companies' expectations
for the country's economic development are extremely negative. None of the German companies on site expects an
improvement, 78 percent of the companies expect a deterioration. The balance of better and worse assessments is thus
at a historically low minus 78 points. Similarly, companies' expectations of their own business sank to minus 61 ba­
lance points, while investment intentions fell to minus 67 balance points. Companies see the greatest business risks inthe economic policy framework (65 percent), trade barriers or the preferential treatment of domestic companies (57percent) and demand (57 percent).

TurkeyIn Turkey, only 13 percent expect a positive economic development in the country, more than half of the companies
expect a slowdown in Turkish economic performance (balance minus 39 points). However, the expectations for theirown business are assessed much more optimistically: 34 percent with positive expectations are compared to only 17
percent with negative expectations (balance 17 points). In view of the dominant risks in Turkey - exchange rate risk (74percent), commodity prices (68 percent), energy prices (64 percent) - German companies on the Bosporus are thus
quite robust.

12 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

North America
Only in North America do the companies that expect a positive develop­
ment of economic performance in the coming months predominate. 36
percent expect an improvement, 22 percent a deterioration (balance 14
points). The balance is lower than in the previous survey. Nevertheless,the economic situation in no other region is currently assessed so posi­
tively by German companies. Current developments in the global eco­nomy are having less of a negative impact on the economies of theUSA, Canada and Mexico than in other regions.

Top risks North America
55% Raw material prices
49% Economic policy framework condi­
tions
32% demand and 32% skills shortage

The positive view of the economy is also reflected in the expectations for their own business: 65 percent of the compa­
nies in North America expect an improvement in their business, only six percent expect a deterioration (balance 59
points). This means that business expectations are rising compared to the previous survey and are currently more posi­tive there than in any other region. This is also reflected in the companies' investment intentions, which, althoughslightly lower than in the previous survey, are currently the highest in the world with a balance of 34 points. Employ­ment intentions remain almost constant (balance 41 after 40 points previously) - also the highest value worldwide.
57 percent of companies in North America report a good business situation - more than in any other region - and only
8 percent a poor one (balance 49 points). Thus, the business situation of companies at their North American locations
is noticeably improving compared to the autumn.

Economic expectations
better
15
70
20

49
36

16
58
26

11
49
40

15
52
33

7
44
49

consistent
9

10

56

48

43

31

43

13

47

bad

Balance

28

30

48

49

24

21

27
81

41

16
3

32

16
20
64

14
40
46

22
42
36 14

-30
-80
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

-78
2020

2021

2022

13 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

South and Central America
In South and Central America, 29 percent of the companies expect eco­nomic performance in the region to improve, 30 percent expect it to de­teriorate (balance minus 1 point). Although the resulting balance is stillslightly negative, positive and negative voices almost balance eachother out. The region is the only one in which companies expect econo­
mic development to be stronger again than in the previous survey (au­tumn 2021: balance minus 17 points). 41 percent do not expect any
change.

Top risks South and Central America
57% Economic policy framework condi­
tions
41% Raw material prices
34% Demand

As a result, business expectations are also rising: 55 percent expect better business in the coming months and ten per­cent worse (balance 45 points). After North America, this is the only region where companies' business expectations
are rising compared to the previous survey. Analogously, this is reflected in more expansive investment and employ­ment plans of the companies. 39 percent of the companies want to increase their investments, one in ten wants to
reduce them (balance 29 after 16 points before). Thirty percent want to hire more staff, nine percent plan to reduce
staff (balance 21 after 19 points previously). Overall, companies are benefiting from the economic recovery after theCorona pandemic.
Compared to other regions, the business situation has even improved the most compared to the previous survey: 44
percent currently report good business and twelve percent report poor business (balance 32 points). Besides North
America, it is the only region where companies report a better business situation than before.

Economic expectations
better

70

32
40

20

28

40
43
17

34

23
24

34
32

53

22
42
36

consistent
15
39
46

9
38
53

23
37
40

bad
15
50
35

Balance
28
73
48
24

31

30

25

39

44

18
9

31

40

30

37

41

23

29
-1

-30
-64
-80
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

14 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Asia-Pacific (without China)
In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), companies that expect theeconomic situation to improve in the next twelve months are balancedby those that expect it to worsen: one quarter each (balance zero
points). Every second company, on the other hand, expects the econo­
mic development to remain the same.

Top risks Asia-Pacific region
53% Raw material prices
42% Energy prices

39% Exchange rate
However, the expectations with regard to the development of their own
business are even more optimistic: 47 percent expect better business, 12 percent expect worse business (balance 35
points). Although the even more positive expectations from autumn 2021 cannot be sustained, companies in the AsiaPacific region (excluding China) are significantly more optimistic about the coming twelve months than companies in
China (balance of three points).
The investment intentions of companies in this region are slightly higher than the global average: one-third of thecompanies plan to increase their capital expenditure in the coming months, only twelve percent want to reduce it (ba­lance 21 points). Employment intentions fall only slightly compared to the previous survey: 42 percent of the compa­
nies want to increase staff, eight percent want to reduce staff (balance 34 points).
The assessment of the current business situation in the region remains stable compared to the previous survey: 45 per­cent of the companies have good business, 11 percent have bad business (balance unchanged at 34 points).

Economic expectations
better
11
70
20

45
44

21
52
27

14
49
37

13

8
46

67
20

46

consistent
13

8

54

50

33

42

17

bad
17

52

49

31

34

Balance
31

32
68

8

35

44

26
6

30

25
50

39

47
21

16

49

48

25

0

-30
-62
-80
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

15 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Greater China
In their Chinese locations (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan), companies are sig­
nificantly lowering their economic expectations. Only 14 percent expect an
improvement, 44 percent a deterioration (balance minus 30 points). 42
percent expect no change in economic performance. Compared to the restof Asia, the outlook of German companies in China is thus much more
pessimistic. Expectations are also strikingly poor compared to other regi­
ons due to the Corona-related lockdowns.

Top Risks Greater China
60% Raw material prices
49% Demand
45% Economic policy framework condi­
tions

Analogously, expectations for the development of their own business are also very subdued: 26 percent expect an im­provement (fewer than anywhere else), 23 percent expect a deterioration (balance of three points). Consequently, com­panies are also scaling back their investment and employment intentions. One-third of the companies want to expand
their investments, but 31 percent want to reduce them (balance of two points). After the region of Eastern and SouthEastern Europe (without the EU), Turkey and Russia, investment intentions are lowest in the Middle Kingdom. Thirtyseven percent with plans to increase staffing levels contrast with eleven percent with plans to reduce staffing levels(balance 26 points).
Companies in their Chinese locations also rate their current business situation the worst compared to other regions. 42
percent assess their current business as good, 17 percent as poor (balance 25 points).

Economic expectations
better
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80

22
53
25

32
51
17

31
53
16

23
54

9
55

constant
7
61

9
61

worse
21
59

Balance

9
43

23

32

30

20

27

9

5
26

32

64
48

36

17
49
31

51

2016

2017

2018

2019

42

69
37

20

2020

44

42

-29

2015

21

14
-30

2021

2022

16 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa, Near and Middle East
In the region of Sub-Saharan Africa, the Near and Middle East, 27 per­cent expect an improvement of the economic situation in their respec­tive countries, 32 percent a deterioration (balance minus five points). 41
percent expect no change. Looking at the other regions, the economic
expectations are thus above average.

Top risks Sub-Saharan Africa, Near andMiddle East
55% Raw material prices
50% exchange rate

The business expectations of the companies are clearly down on the
43% Economic policy framework condi­
tions
previous survey, but still clearly in positive territory. 43 percent expect
their business to improve, eleven percent expect it to deteriorate in thenext twelve months (balance 32 points). Investment and employment intentions are subdued. 34 percent want to makehigher investments, 20 percent lower (balance 14 points). 32 percent want to increase staff, 13 percent plan to reduce
the number of employees (balance 19 points).
Current business is slightly less good than in autumn: 42 percent currently have good business and twelve percent
have bad business (balance 30 points).

Economic expectations
better
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

17
55
28

31

25

44

43

25

32

39

37

45

36

16

27

consistent
22
45
33

15

bad

Balance
30

44

37

39

39

47

17

24

23

48
37

32

54

35
35

33

11

22
35

10

32

44
41

43

46

27
-5

-43
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

17 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Statistical annex
Evaluation of the results by country
Balance of good/better answers minus bad/less answers in each caseBusiness
expectations

World total

Current
business situa­tion
37

Investment
intentions

Employment
intentions

27

Economic expecta­
tions on the
ground-16

18

27Eurozone

36

17

-25

15

23

Germany

34

15

-22

22

23

Estonia

40

10

-37

3

30

Finland

48

22

-44

12

48

France

22

35

22

29

35

Greece

23

6

-32

-3

9

Italy

51

13

-28

-1

28

Latvia

41

5

-45

0

23

Lithuania

30

11

-67

23

19

Portugal

22

17

-35

-27

-9

Slovakia

31

-7

-47

8

12

Slovenia

52

28

-14

10

28

Spain

32

27

-36

16

28

Other EU, Switzerland, Norway, UK

49

25

-31

22

33

Bulgaria

48

13

-28

25

32

Denmark

52

26

-13

24

17

Croatia

46

41

10

23

35

Norway

45

34

-18

20

29

Poland

60

14

-51

21

36

Romania

41

30

-41

6

21

Sweden

48

39

-3

30

48

Switzerland

60

23

3

22

33

Czech Republic

41

5

-46

5

24

Hungary

36

12

-51

7

18

Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK)

42

42

-17

37

39

Eastern/South Eastern Europe (withoutEU), Russia, Turkey
Albania

45

3

-42

1

13

18

21

-15

26

8

Azerbaijan

14

30

4

14

15

Bosnia and Herzegovina

37

48

0

21

44

Kosovo

38

34

9

40

41

North Macedonia

16

-5

-56

0

18

Russian Federation

0

-61

-78

-60

-57

Serbia

51

41

-26

36

45

Turkey

71

17

-39

1

33

Belarus (White Russia)

0

-74

-93

-70

-58

18 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Current
business situa­
tion
34

Business
expectations

Investment
intentions

Employment
intentions

35

Economic expecta­
tions on the
ground02134Australia

58

63

38

27

58

Indonesia

50

73

35

29

46

Japan

23

13

-30

13

34

Kazakhstan

37

15

-11

-4

6

Korea (South)

31

35

1

11

19

Malaysia

39

35

4

33

48

New Zealand

29

43

-39

4

39

Philippines

37

53

33

31

40

Singapore

42

31

4

31

53

Thailand

37

34

0

41

37

Vietnam

32

57

43

42

43

Greater China

25

3

-30

2

26

China, PR

24

1

-34

0

25

Hong Kong

19

0

-16

5

23

Taiwan

41

17

5

32

38

North America (=USA, Canada, Mexico)

49

59

14

34

41

Canada

41

32

5

-14

36

Mexico

30

43

-21

23

29

USA

55

68

27

44

45

South and Central America

32

45

-1

29

21

Argentina

17

23

-48

6

17

Bolivia

-6

43

-14

15

-9

Brazil

44

41

9

34

25

Chile

54

33

-71

27

38

Ecuador

18

63

10

30

9

Colombia

44

76

26

37

33

Panama

43

48

48

39

29

Paraguay

59

78

-15

48

56

Peru

16

-3

-65

-23

0

Uruguay

52

62

51

61

28

Venezuela

-38

38

24

33

-20

Africa, Near and Middle East

30

32

-5

14

19

Egypt

33

26

-13

10

8

Algeria

-23

18

5

21

-5

Iran

36

34

-20

16

25

Kenya

37

22

-37

25

19

Saudi Arabia

40

50

63

23

40

South Africa

8

20

-38

8

33

Tunisia

9

35

-30

18

16

United Arab Emirates

50

46

33

17

33

Asia/Pacific (without China)

19 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

Questionnaire
How do you assess the current business situation of your company?
• good• satisfactory• badWhat business development do you expect for your local company in the next twelve months?
• better• consistent• bad
How do you assess the economic development on site in the next twelve months?
• better• consistent• bad
How is your company's spending on local investments likely to develop over the next twelve months?
• higher• consistent• Low• No investments
How do you expect the number of employees in your local company to develop over the next twelve months?
• higher• consistent• Low
Where do you see the greatest risks in the economic development of your company in the coming twelve months?
(Multiple answers possible)• Demand• Funding• Labour costs• Skills shortage• Exchange rate
• Energy prices• Commodity prices• Legal certainty• Economic policy framework conditions• Infrastructure• Trade barriers / preferential treatment of domestic companies

20 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

What short-term economic consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine do you feel or expect for your company?
(Multiple answers possible)• Higher costs for energy, raw materials and inputs• Lack of raw materials and inputs• Supply chain and logistics disruptions• Increase in trade barriers• Increased legal uncertainty• Production stop/reduced production• Higher production• Reduction in incoming orders• Increase in incoming orders• Loss of business partners, severance of business relationships• Obstacles in payment transactions• None• Other (free text)

What long-term changes in the international division of labour do you expect? (Multiple answers possible)• Change in transport routes• Changed risk assessment of sites• Termination or restrictions of business relationships in certain regions• Relocation of branches/production to new locations• Relocation of branches/production closer to German/European home market• Increase of political influence on supply chains (e.g. through laws, trade barriers)• Increase in protectionism / autarkic national economy• Greater diversification of suppliers• Greater diversification of sales markets• Economic decoupling of world regions• No changes• Other (free text)

21 | AHK World Business Outlook - Spring 2022

The AHK World Business Outlook is based on a regular DIHK survey of member companies of the German Chambers ofCommerce Abroad, Delegations and Representative Offices (AHKs). It collects feedback from more than 4,200 German
companies, branches and subsidiaries worldwide as well as companies with close ties to Germany in spring 2022. The
survey was conducted from 25 March to 22 April 2022.
41 percent of the responding companies are from the industry and construction sector, 37 percent from the service
sector and another 22 percent are trading companies. Smaller companies with less than 100 employees account for 49
percent of the responses. 23 percent of the companies employ 100 to 1,000 people. Large companies with more than
1,000 employees account for 28 percent of respondents worldwide.

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Editorial
Carolin Herweg, Melanie Vogelbach
Graphic
Friedemann Encke, Sebastian Hirsch, Sebastian Titze
Picture credits
https://www.gettyimages.de/Stand
May 2022