Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

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MARKET ANALYSIS OFPASSENGER VANS IN BANGKOKSupaporn Kaewko Leopairojna and Shinya Hanaoka
School of Civil Engineering (SCE), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT),ABSTRACT
Initially, passenger vans in Bangkok were illegal. Nonetheless, passengers preferred them toconventional buses due to their speed, comfort and ease of access at affordable prices.
Conventional bus operators considered the passenger vans as competitors who caused lower
revenues. Therefore, Thai government started enforcing passenger van regulations in 1999 toprovide safe public transport and to eliminate the competitions. This policy was not based ontheoretical consideration. An analysis of passenger vans market in Bangkok has not been
undertaken. Moreover, illegal passenger vans are still existent. This study verified market
competition between the passenger vans and conventional buses based on the demand sideand found that there was no price competition. The passenger van market is an oligopoly
market with implication of product differentiation. Deregulation of passenger van entry wasrecommended to bring more licensed passenger vans and to create competitive market
environments where services would be improved. Regulations related to safety and qualitiesof the services were maintained.

1. INTRODUCTION

Passenger van services supply 12-seat air-conditioning vans with guaranteed seats. According
to the passenger van regulations, numbers of passenger vans entry in the business, number ofroutes, maximum fares and capacity of vehicles are enforced as well as vehicle fitness and304

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

driver disciplines. The controlled maximum number is 5,574 vehicles operating on 116 routes,
but the actual numbers of operators and passengers are not officially recorded. Fares varyfrom 8-43 baht (50 baht = 1 EUR). The passenger vans are preferred by middle-income
commuters because 1) they charge similar fares to conventional air-conditioning (a-c) buses
but offer more convenience and comfort in the form of guaranteed seats and faster services2) they reduce travel times since their smaller size enables them to move quickly throughcongested roads, they have fewer stops, and some of them operate on expressways 3) they
offer a level of service similar to taxis but at lower fares, and they give a better sense of safety
for female passengers who travel alone (Leopairojna and Hanaoka, 2005). At the start, thepassenger vans were considered illegal. The conventional bus operators considered thepassenger vans as competitors due to overlapping of their routes. Therefore, the government
enforced the regulations for the passenger vans in 1999 without considering market structureand nature of competition between the passenger vans and conventional buses. Leopairojnaand Hanaoka (2005) researched the market structure of passenger vans using the northern
corridor of Bangkok as a case study area and found that the passenger van market was anoligopoly with implications of product differentiation and collusion. Unlicensed passengervans were found during field surveys. Deregulation of entry was recommended in general tobring more licensed passenger vans in the market while deregulation of maximum fare wasrecommended only on passenger van routes where competition among passenger van
operators or companies occurred. It is speculated that after the price was deregulated under
the deregulated entry, van companies might increase the van fares. In such a case it is unclear
whether passenger van users may change to other public transport modes. Detailed study tounderstand passenger van user mode choice preferences is thus required.
The objectives of this paper are to verify market competition between passenger vans and a-cbuses in Bangkok, and to estimate future market of passenger vans based on opinions andpreferences of the demand side, that is, commuters and other passengers. Passengers on
passenger vans and conventional a-c buses on three selected corridors in the northern part of
Bangkok were examined as case studies.

2. BACKGROUND OF PASSENGER VANS IN BANGKOK
2.1 Overview of Transport
Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA), a capital of Thailand, is surrounded by five neighbouringprovinces. At the national level, this area is considered the core of the country and referred toas “Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR)”. In 2004, BMA and BMR had registeredpopulations of around 5.63 million and 9.64 million respectively (DOPA, 2005). Average
household incomes in BMA and BMR were 29,425 and 28,076 baht/month (NSO, 2003).
Since BMR is the location where economic development is highest, it is attracting people
from countrywide, and population and vehicle numbers are increasing. In conjunction with

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305

uncontrolled and unplanned land development, insufficient public transport and limited road
space, this has led to the most serious problem in Bangkok - traffic congestion. Figure 1
presents comparisons between numbers of registered population, total vehicles, cars andmotorcycles in Bangkok during 1993 - 2005. In 2004, numbers of population dropped due toa revision of household records and number of all vehicles declined because number ofvehicles, which licenses were terminated, was removed. Total vehicles increased from2.66 million in 1993 to 5.02 million in 2005 and resumed their upward trend. AMP and ESRI
(2004) reported that in 2003, about 16.47 million person trips took place per day in BMR,
55% by private and 45% by public vehicles. The private vehicles included cars (35%) andmotorcycles (20%). The main public vehicles were buses (23%), taxis and tuk-tuks (10%),
hired motorcycles (7%), passenger vans (3%), boats (1%), commuter trains and rail transit
systems (1%). Travel conditions were poor with an average speed of 15 kph in the inner areaof Bangkok, 18 kph in BMA, and 21 kph in BMR. To alleviate traffic congestion problems,
the government is attempting to reduce the usage of private vehicles by improving public
transport systems, especially the rail transit systems.

Figure 1: Comparisons between Registered Population and Vehicles in Bangkok(Compiled from DOPA, 2006 and DLT, 2006)
2.2 Overview of Public Transport
Bangkok is situated on the banks of the Chao Phraya River into which feed the city’s canal
network. The city has benefited from both water and land transport. Public transport systems
in Bangkok are categorized into three groups that are water-based, rail-based and road-based.
Water transport plays a less important role in the public transport system due to its confinedservice areas. Express boats and canal boats are more popular during rush hours because they
help commuters to save travel time. Fares on water transport are similar to conventional a-c

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S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

buses, yet the travel time is less. Nonetheless, the level of comfort is low, especially in canals
due to the water pollution problem.
Rail-based public transport comprises commuter trains and urban rail transit systems. State
Railway of Thailand (SRT) operates the commuter trains as a public service obligation onlines radiating for 61-133 km from Bangkok. The commuter trains play an insignificant role
due to their limited service areas, low frequency, and low level of comfort. For the urban railtransit systems, the first phase of the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) was opened in
1999 with a total of 23.1 km of routes and the second phase is under construction. In 2004,
the first 20 km phase of an Underground Metro Line was opened. The BTS is operated by a
private company and the Metro is managed by a government agency. To attract morecommuters, extension of the rail transit systems comprising a further 291 km on seven routes
was approved by the government in 2004 and planned for completion in 2009 (OTP, 2004).
Road-based public transport includes mass public transport and personal public transportmodes. Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) was authorized to provide bus services in
BMR (BMTA, 2004). The government considers BMTA services as a welfare function.
BMTA follows this government policy in providing cheap fares for lower income groups.
Consequently, bus fares are priced below fully allocated costs and the deficiency is being met
by government subsidy. Since BMTA is the only agency authorized to provide bus services,
the other bus operators have to get sub-license contracts from BMTA. As of September 2005
(BMTA, 2006), BMTA is responsible for 15,857 vehicles on 429 routes. BMTA operates
3,579 buses on 102 routes with joint-service buses (3,485 buses, 106 routes), minibuses(1,113 buses, 46 routes), small buses plying lanes- operate only on local roads (2,161 buses,
105 routes), and passenger vans (5,519 vans, 116 routes), as presented in Figure 2. The
passenger vans have the highest number of vehicles and routes.

BMTA jointBMTA:
service Buses:
15,857 vehicles (100%) 3,485 buses (22%)
429 routes(100%) 106 routes (24%)

Small buses
plying lanes:
2,161 buses (14%)
105 routes (24%)

Bangkok Microbus
Company:
153-216 microbuses
7 routes

BMTA buses:
3,579 buses (23%)
102 routes (24%)

Passenger van:5,519 vans (34%)
116 routes (27%)

Total Bus-like
Public Transport:
16,010-16,073 vehicles
436 routes

Minibuses*:
1,113 buses (7%)
46 routes (11%)*Note: Minibus routes are the same routes with BMTA and Joint-service buses

Figure 2: Mass Public Transport in Bangkok (BMTA, 2006)
Another mass public transport is the microbus service that provides 35-seat air-conditioning
minibuses with guaranteed seats. The service is operated by Bangkok Microbus Company, aprivate company that has been directly regulated by the Department of Land Transport (DLT)
since 1993. The number of routes was reduced from 35 routes in 1993 to 7 routes in 2004. To

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307

continue the business, the company joined hands with BTSC to provide some minibuses as
shuttle bus services that circulate around BTS stations and feed passengers to the stations.
The personal public transport in Bangkok includes taxis, tuk-tuks, and hired motorcycles.
After the government ended entry regulation to the taxi trade in 1992, taxis have been
licensed by DLT (GTZ, 2003). At the end of January 2005, Bangkok has 81,983 licensed
taxis (DLT, 2005a). The tuk-tuk is a three-wheeled vehicle that has a two-stroke engine and is
powered by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). DLT imposed a limit of 7,400 tuk-tuks in theMotor Vehicle Act (GTZ, 2003). There were 7,382 tuk-tuks in Bangkok at the end of 2003
(DLT, 2005a). Hired motorcycles have become common for public transport commuters in
Bangkok in the last ten years. They play roles as feeder services that take passengers fromlocal roads to conventional public transport on main roads. As from May 11 2005, DLT
requires all hired motorcycles in Thailand to be registered (DLT, 2005b).
2.3 Development of Passenger Van Services
2.3.1 Process of Regulation
There is no record of when the passenger van services were actually started in Bangkok.
A report from DLT explained that when the Land Transport Act B.E. 2522 was enforced in
1979, there was no regulation related to passenger van services (DLT, 2003). However, theAct states that operating public transport services requires official permission from DLT. The
passenger van services were operated as public transport services by investors without getting
permission from DLT. Furthermore, the Motor Vehicle Act of B.E. 2522 (1979) determinesthat drivers are not allowed to operate passenger vans as public vehicles when they are
registered as private vehicles. Additionally, under the Royal Decree Establishing BMTA B.E.
2519 (1976), only BMTA is authorized to provide bus services in BMR. Therefore, DLT
promulgated that operating vans as public transport services were illegal in 1984, and theMinistry of Transport (MOT) formulated a policy to eliminate the passenger van services in1986 (DLT, 2003). Notwithstanding this, the passenger van services kept expanding during1986 to 1996 as the suburbs of Bangkok developed as residential areas and most working
places continued to be located in the central areas. Suburbanites, who could not afford private
vehicles, required proper public transport services for commuting. While BMTA provided bus
services on main roads, passenger vans located their terminals in new housing estates, markets
or community centres in suburbs and connected to shopping centres, education areas, andlocations where passengers could transfer to other public transport modes.
The popularity of the passenger vans caused the incumbents including BMTA and its jointservice operators considered the passenger vans as competitors. They complained to DLT thatpassenger van routes were overlapped and the passenger vans competed to take passengers.
Panyasutti (2001) studied the passenger van policy and found that the policy was initiatedwhen politicians responded to the complaints and exercised their power through the policy

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maker that was the MOT. Therefore, the government has enforced passenger van regulations
to eliminate competitions between the passenger vans and BMTA bus services since 1999.
DLT and BMTA were assigned by MOT as main agencies involved in the passenger van
regulation. The two agencies proposed the passenger van policy based on their knowledge andexperiences. Feasibility of the policy and its impacts were not considered. Furthermore, thepassenger van policy was based on no theory and lack of academic reliability. Leopairojnaand Hanaoka (2005) explain that BMTA was granted “transport business licenses” to operatepassenger van services and distributed sub-license contracts to passenger van drivers. To get
the sub-licenses, passenger van drivers had to improve conditions of their vehicles to meet
DLT standards, arranged insurances for passengers, paid entry and contract fees to BMTA,
and agreed to pay monthly concession fee to BMTA without receiving subsidy from thegovernment. The licenses are limited to 5,574 vans. Passenger van operators could request for
additional fleets and routes by gathering 500 signatures from passengers and proposing theirrequests through district councils (DLT, 2003). BMTA would submit the requests to DLT for
approval. According to the transport business licenses (DLT, 1999), passenger van fares arecontrolled at not more than 1 baht/km for the first 10 km and not more than 0.60 baht/km foreach additional km. An additional fare, that is not more than 5 baht/person/trip, is allowed forroutes operated on expressways or toll ways. The passenger van drivers are under BMTA
authority, while DLT monitors the passenger van services and has authority to withdraw
licenses of routes that are below DLT standards. Regulations concerning passenger van
services by the two agencies are summarized in Box 1.
Box 1: Regulation Regarding Passenger Van Services
In each Transport Business License (DLT, 1999), the following conditions are fixed:- Route alignment, origin and destination- A minimum and maximum range of passenger vans (passenger van quota on each route)- Type and colour of a passenger van (following DLT standards) and capacity (not more than 12 seats)- Number of persons attached to a vehicle (a driver and a fare collector)- Daily work time (head office and local office must be open from 8.30am to 4.30pm on business day)- Places for keeping, repair and maintenance the vehicles- Operating hours (6.00am to 10.00pm) and minimum total daily trips (detailed timetable and headway are
set by a passenger van company of each route)- Maximum fare (for example, passenger vans on route 1 can charge not more than 15 baht/person/trip)
In BMTA regulations (BMTA, 2001), passenger van drivers have to follow these regulations:- Picking up passengers only at origins and drop off them at bus stops along routes or at destinations,asking passengers to get off before arriving at their destinations is prohibited- To operate vans outside regular routes, drivers have to get official permission from DLT and BMTA
- To stop temporarily for repairing or for some reasons, drivers have to inform BMTA
- Monthly concession fee (1,070 baht) must be paid to BMTA
- Motor and compulsory third party insurances must be provided to passengers in case of accidents- Vehicles must be clean and in good conditions- Drivers have to follow Land Transport Act B.E. 2522 (1979) for driving disciplines

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309

The government regulated the passenger van services to provide licensed passenger vans andto eliminate the influential figures from the business. Initially, management of the passenger
van services was started by investors who established terminals, determined routes, andoperated the services including the setting of fares and schedules. To establish the terminals,
the investors required support from influential figures and paid huge kickbacks in return.
Passenger van drivers were required to be members of the terminals and had to pay entry andmonthly membership fees. After the regulation, the investors continued as passenger van
companies and the influential figures were remained as observed from rising of the fees.
In 1998, the maximum entry and monthly membership fees were 100,000 and 4,000 baht
(Eamsupawat, 1999). After the regulation, the fees were raised to 250,000 and 5,000 baht
(Longji, 2003). Moreover, some illegal vans are found on the regulated passenger van routes
mixing with the legal fleets.
One possible reason that the illegal vans remain is actual number of passenger vans before theregistration was higher than the given passenger van quota. A report form BMTA show that
BMTA received transport business licenses of 115 van routes with a range of 4,7898,505 vans from DLT in 2000 (BMTA, 2001). The maximum number was the existing
number of vehicles found in field surveys, i.e., the existing number of vans was around8,500 vans. In addition, the Senatorial Subcommittee studied passenger vans in July 2001 andfound that 8,000 to 9,000 vans were operated in Bangkok and surrounding provinces (Nation,2001). However, during the registration period from 1999 to 2001, only 5,566 van drivers
applied for the contracts from BMTA (BMTA, 2001). In 2002, a Deputy Minister of MOT
aimed to complete the van-regulating task to support his campaign for Bangkok traffic order(Bangkokpost, 2002). Therefore, DLT and BMTA concluded that only 5,566 vans actuallyoperated in Bangkok (PFEC, 2003) and the Deputy Minister made a policy to limit quota of thevan licenses as 5,566 vans (DLT, 2003) without considering supply of other bus services anddemand of commuters in Bangkok. There was a request to increase the van quota, but the Deputy
Minister insisted that the quota was appropriate (Longji, 2003). In 2004, BMTA revised thenumbers of vans on each route by surveying the actual number of vans operated and received
licenses on these routes. The range of passenger vans was amended at 3,964 - 5,574 vans (DLT,2004). The maximum number of the passenger vans found in the field survey was given as therevised passenger van quota. This information shows that the government controlled numberof passenger vans by using ad hoc approach and based on the actual situations and politicalmatters without theoretical thinking. An analysis of market structure, market segmentation,and real competitors of the passenger vans has not been undertaken.

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2.3.2 Competitors of the Passenger Vans

One reason that BMTA considered that there were competitions between the passenger vansand BMTA buses is duplications of their routes. When the passenger van services werestarted, they operated on high demand routes and overlapped with BMTA services. In 1999,
BMTA surveyed passenger van routes and submitted the routes to DLT for approval oftransport business licenses (BMTA, 2001). The submitted van routes were not modified,
however, and the duplications were continued. Leopairojna and Hanaoka (2005) comparedhousehold income and mode usages of Bangkok residents and passenger van commuters andfound that the passenger van and BMTA a-c bus commuters had similar income levels. It may
therefore be assumed that the main competitor of the passenger van service is the BMTA a-c
bus service. Comparison between passenger van and BMTA a-c bus services is presented inTable 1. There are 5,574 vans on 144 routes and 1,890 a-c buses on 79 routes. Van fares varyfrom 8-43 baht. In May 2005, BMTA a-c bus fares were 9-17 baht for ordinary type and 1121 baht for EURO I and II a-c buses. Fares of vans and a-c buses were not so different forroutes that are shorter than 20 km. The gap was increased with operating distances. For routes
that had operating distances 51-60 km, fares of passenger van were two times higher than faresof a-c buses. Most of passenger vans operate route distances of 21-30 km while most of a-c
buses operate route distances of 31-40 km.
Leopairojna and Hanaoka (2005) studied competition between the passenger van and a-c bus
services based on the supply side using the northern corridor of Bangkok as a case study area.
There were two passenger van companies operated on the same route. Surveys of the vandrivers show that they considered another group and unlicensed vans as their competitors, notthe a-c buses. The van drivers agreed that the passenger van users were a different attributive
group compared to a-c bus users. However, BMTA judged the passenger vans as competitors
because of duplications between their routes and attempted to increase its number of bus users
by revising route alignments, improving services such as providing new a-c buses, andoperating on expressway during peak hours with the existing fare. The competition yields
benefits to the users because they have more alternatives for their commuting. Opinions of thevan drivers regarding the passenger van regulations show that they agreed with the passenger
van quota that prevents new drivers to enter the market. The van drivers preferred this job due
to its self-employed attribute since they own or rent the vans and manage their working hours
themselves and its good profits since they could earn 15,000-45,000 baht/month while a new
graduate earns 7000 baht/month in a public agency. To maintain their good incomes, thedrivers agreed that the maximum fares should be revised to cover increased fuel costs, theregulated capacity (11 passengers) should be increased to 14 passengers, and they should beallowed to pick up passengers from bus stops along their routes.

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Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

Table 1: Comparison between Passenger Vans and BMTA a-c Buses
Passenger vans
Distances(km)

Number ofroutes1(Percentage)

Number ofvehicles2(Percentage)

BMTA a-c buses
Fares3(baht)

Number ofroutes(Percentage)

Number ofvehicles(Percentage)

1-10
8 (6%)
188-265 (5%)
8-14
0 (0%)0
11-20
46 (32%)100-1,400 (25%)
10-21
12 (15%)171 (9%)21-30
66 (46%)
1,964 -2,767 (50%)
10-27
23 (29%)483 (26%)
31-40
16 (11%)523-735 (13%)
20-32
29 (37%)781 (41%)41-50
6 (4%)
245-346 (6%)
20-38
14 (18%)427 (23%)51-60
2 (1%)
44 -61 (1%)
43
1 (1%)
28 (1%)Total
144 (100%)
3,964 -5,574 (100%)
8-43
79 (100%)
1,890 (100%)
Note: 1 Number of main routes and sub-routes
2
The minimum and maximum range in the passenger van quota determined by BMTA and DLT
3Additional 5 baht for routes operated on expressways or toll way
4
Fares of BMTA ordinary a-c buses start from 9 baht to 17 baht (2 May - 8 July 2005)
5
Fares of BMTA EURO I and II a-c buses start from 11 baht to 21 baht (2 May - 8 July 2005)

Fares(baht)
9-114, 11-155
11-15, 15-19
15-17, 21
17, 21
17, 21
17, 21
9-17, 11-21

Source: The authors made from DLT (2004) and Naewna (2005)

3. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
From checking passenger van and BMTA a-c bus routes, there were seven corridors that thetwo modes have the same route alignments, origins and destinations. From field surveys,
some passenger van routes were not operated and had too small number of fleets comparing
to the a-c buses. Therefore, three corridors comprising nine routes of passenger vans and a-cbuses in the northern part of Bangkok were selected as case study areas. Questionnaire
surveys were prepared and distributed to passenger van and a-c bus users boarding in thethree corridors. Conjoint analysis method was applied to find preferences of the respondents.
Before preparing surveys using conjoint analysis method, a pilot survey of public transport
users was conducted.
3.1 Case Study Areas: Three Corridors
The three corridors, referred to as corridors A, B, and C. They have different features in termsof distance, fare, and land use type of the origins and destinations. Corridor A comprises
passenger van route 85 and a-c bus routes 29, 39, and 510. The surveys were not conducted
on a-c bus routes 39 and 510 because their route alignments are different from the passenger
van route. In addition, these two a-c bus routes do not operate on the Tollway while thepassenger van and a-c bus route 29 operate on the Tollway on whole operation hours andduring peak hours respectively. The passenger van route 85 and a-c bus routes 29 have origins
in Thammasart University (TU) Rangsit Campus and destinations at Victory Monument (VM)
and Bangkok Railway Station, as shown in Figures 3.

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Thammasart U.

Corridor A

Bangkok U.
NorthRangsit

Don Muang Airport

Luk SiBangkok
Railway
StationVictory Monument

Operator
OriginLand Use Type
Destination
Land Use TypeDistances
Fares
Expressway Usage
Travel time
VehiclesRegulated Capacity
Headways

Passenger Van
Route 85
Two van companies
Thammasart U.
Education Area
Victory Monument
Transportation Hub
45 km
30 BahtYes
45 min (off-peak)

BMTA a-c Bus
Route 29
A Private Company
Thammasart U.
Education Area
Bangkok Railway Station
Transportation Hub
42.5 km17 Baht
Yes, only peak hours
120 min (off-peak)

60 min (peak)
53-74 vans
11 seats, no standee
5-8am
5 min
8-9am
10 min9-10am20 min90 min1 (peak)
40 a-c buses
46 seats, 30 standees
Peak hours:
5-7 min
Off-peak hours: 10 min

10am-4pm 15 min2
4-9pm
10 minNote: 1 Ttravel time using the Tollway during peak hours
2
Start timing when the first passenger gets on a van

Figure 3: Information and Route Alignments of Corridor A
Corridor B includes passenger van route 86 and a-c bus route 166. The two routes areoperated on the Second Stage Expressway from Muang Thong Thani (MTT) to Victory
Monument (VM). However, the a-c bus route is extended to Pak Kred Pier, as presented in
Figure 4. The a-c bus users have to travel from MTT to Pak Kred Pier before entering theExpressway at Chaeng Watthana Toll Plaza and exiting at Klong Prapa toll plaza on Rama 6Road while the passenger vans exit at Victory Monument. Passengers on the passenger vans
have to transfer to other vehicles to reach destinations on Rama 6 Road.

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Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

Corridor B
Pak Kred Pier

Muang Thong
Thani
Chaeng WatthanaToll Plaza North

Klong Prapa
Toll Plaza

Victory Monument

Passenger Van
BMTA a-c Bus
Route 86
Route 166
Operator
A van company
BMTA
OriginMuang Thong Thani
Muang Thong ThaniLand Use Type
Residential Area
Residential Area
Destination
Victory Monument
Victory Monument
Land Use TypeTransportation Hub
Transportation HubDistances
20 km
31 km
Fares
25 Baht
17 Baht
Expressway Usage
Yes
Yes
Travel time
20 min (off-peak)
40 min (off-peak)
25 min (peak)
45 min (peak)
Vehicles
53-74 vans
20 a-c buses
Regulated Capacity 11 seats, no standee
46 seats, 30 standees
Headways
5.30-11am Full
Peak hours:
7-8 min
Off-peak hours: 10-15 min
11am-2pm 15 min1
2-3pm
10 min1
3-4pm
10 min4-6pm
5 min
6-8pm Leave when another van arrives
8-9pm
5 min
9-10pm
10 minNote: 1 Start timing when the first passenger gets on a van

Figure 4: Information and Route Alignments of Corridor B
Corridor C contains passenger van route 83 and a-c bus routes 538 and 522. The passenger
van and a-c bus route 522 have the same origins and destinations but the route alignments aredifferent and route 522 is not operated on the Tollway. Interviewing the van drivers show thatthey considered route 538 as their competitors because it is operated on the Tollway and has
the same route alignments. Passenger van route 83 has its origin at Future Park Rangsit
Shopping Centre (FPR) while a-c bus route 538 has its origin at Rajmankala University (RU).
The two routes have the same destinations at Victory Monument (VM), as shown in Figure 5.
Rajmankala U.
North

Future Park-Rangsit

Don Muang Airport
Luk Si

Victory Monument

Corridor C
Operator
OriginLand Use Type
Destination
Land Use TypeDistances
Fares
Expressway Usage

Passenger Van
Route 83
A van company
Future Park- Rangsit
Shopping Center
Victory Monument
Transportation Hub
28 km
20 Baht
Yes

BMTA a-c Bus
Route 538
A Private Company
Rajamankala U.
Education Area
Victory Monument
Transportation Hub
42 km
19 Baht
Yes

Travel time

20 min (off-peak)

25 min1 (off-peak)

40 min (peak)
45 min1 (peak)
40 vans
30 EURO I a-c buses
11 seats, no standee
46 seats, 30 standees
Peak hours: 5 min or full Peak hours:
5 min
Off-peak hours: Full
Off-peak hours: 7 min(Not longer than 15 min)Note: 1 Travel time from Future Park-Rangsit to Victory Monument
VehiclesRegulated Capacity
Headways

Figure 5: Information and Route Alignments of Corridor C

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S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

3.2 Questionnaire Surveys
Questionnaire surveys of passenger van and a-c bus users were conducted on three corridors
between April and May 2005. A revealed and a stated preference approaches were applied tofind characteristics of the respondents and their trips, their mode selections, and their opinions.
A “multiple factor (attribute) full-concept” conjoint analysis method were employed to findpreferences of the users. Questionnaire items were grouped in 4 parts that are characteristicsof the respondents and their trips, mode selection, opinions of the respondents, and theirpreferences. Details of the items are presented in Box 2.

Box 2: Questionnaire Items
Part 1. Respondent and Trip Characteristics:- Gender- Age- Household income- Household vehicles- Occupation- Origin and destination- Frequency of travelling by passenger vans/a-c buses- Main trip purpose
Part 3. Opinions of the respondents:- Suitability of existing fares- Suitability of planned schedules- Consistency of planned and actual schedules- Overload capacity of passenger vans/a-c buses- Deregulation of passenger van entry- Allowing van drivers to pick up passengers along routes

Part 2. Mode Selection:- Present regular public transport mode
- Former regular public transport mode
- Reason(s) to select the present mode
- Availability of passenger vans/a-c buses- Reason(s) for not selecting passenger vans/a-c buses- A new mode if this passenger van/a-c bus routestop operating- Possibility to change mode if passenger van/a-c bus fares were increased- A new mode if passenger van/a-c bus fares
were increased
Part 4. Preferences of the respondents:(Details are described in sections 3.3 and 3.5)

3.3 Conjoint Analysis
SPSS (1997) explains that in conjoint analysis, products are separated into different productfeatures. The product features are general “attributes” or “factors” of the product, such as size,
colour, or price. Each attribute has different “levels” that represent specific values of theattributes for a particular product. For example, the attribute ‘size’ can have two attributelevels that are ‘small’ and ‘large’. The attributes are measured by “importances”. The
importances evaluate the total impact that a particular attribute can have on total preference.
The attribute levels are measured by their “utilities”. The utility scores or “path-worth
utilities” or “path-worths” are measures of how important each attribute is to a respondent’s
preference of a product. The highest total utility score represents the most preferred productfeatures. The attributes and attribute levels must be selected before collecting data for conjoint
analysis. There are two approaches in collecting data for conjoint analysis. The first approachis the “two-factor (attribute)-at-a-time trade off method”. In this approach, a trade-off matrix,

Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

315

which presents all combinations of all levels of two attributes of a product, are prepared for
respondents. The respondents are asked to rank the combinations based on their preferences.
This approach is not popular because the matrix can handle only two attributes at a time while
many attributes are involved in studies (MV-Research, 2002). The second approach is the“multiple factor (attribute) full-concept method” which is used in this study. In this approach,a set of product concepts or profiles is prepared for respondents. One product concept
includes one level of each attribute. The respondents are asked to rank, order, or score theseproduct concepts according to their preferences. The technique has been applied in manystudies as to predict preferences for transport services, financial services, and automobiles.
However, the technique is not suitable for products that consumers evaluate by their “image”
such as beer or cigarettes (Populus, 2004). Conjoint analysis is applied in the field of transport
study by many researchers. For example, Kroes and Sheldon (1988) clarified that conjoint
analysis is the best-known stated preference (SP) method that uses experimental design
procedures to provide different transport options for consideration by respondents. Pas andHuber (1992) employed conjoint analysis in studying how inter-city rail travellers respond to
new transport services and what attributes of the services they prefer. Maier et al. (2002) usedconjoint analysis technique to examine the preferences and behavioural stability of productlogistics managers. Daneilis et al. (2005) applied conjoint analysis to estimate the preferencesof logistics managers in freight service attributes. Nam et al. (2005) examined consumer
preferences for transport telematics services over time in terms of services features andpurchasing time by conjoint analysis method. In this paper, conjoint analysis was applied to
study what attributes that passenger van and a-c bus users prefer in selecting public transportmodes. The conjoint analysis technique was selected because it estimates the “trade-offs” thatthe users make in choosing their modes. The technique is very close to their actual lives whenpeople have to make decisions among numerous things under different situations.
3.4 Pilot Study of Public Transport Users
Before preparing the questions using conjoint analysis technique, a pilot study of 100 public
transport users was conducted in January 2005 to find the most important attributes
considered in selecting their modes. Attributes selected for the pilot survey were based on fivemain attributes, namely cost, safety, time, convenience, and comfort, as presented in Table 2.

316

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

Table 2: Attributes in the Pilot Survey
Main Attributes
Cost
SafetyTime

Convenience

ComfortAttributes
Fares
Vehicle conditions such as old or new, cleanliness and size of vehicles
Crew manner and driving behaviour
Image/reputation of the mode such as occurrences of road accidents
A mode that arrives at where you are waiting first, no matter what type it isReliability: arriving at a bus stop or leaving a van terminal at the same time everyday
Saving in-vehicle travel time
Ease of travel from your home to a bus stop or a van terminal
Ease of transferring to other modes to complete your trip
Making a trip without changing vehicles
Availability of information at a bus stop or a van terminal such as schedule and map
Comfort such as air-conditioning and guaranteed seats
Facilities at bus stops or van terminals such as seats and shelter
Perceived distances of the route either short or long distances
Level of crush and probability of getting a seat

Rank
3
6
5
11
10
12
1
7
8
2
12
4
13
9
8

The respondents included undergraduate and graduate students, administrative staff, andworkers in Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and Thammasart University (TU) Rangsit
Campus. The respondents were asked to select four attributes that they considered mostimportant and rank them. Results of the pilot survey shows that the most important attributes
were saving in-vehicle travel time, completing a trip without transferring to other vehicles,
fare, and comfort such as air-conditioning and guaranteed seats. These four attributes were
employed in formulating questionnaire surveys using conjoint analysis approach to examine
passenger van and a-c bus users. Reliability and waiting time were not selected sincepassengers in Bangkok get used to with unreliable and long waiting time bus services.

3.5 Determination of User Preferences
Before preparing questions for conjoint analysis, attributes of passenger van and a-c bus must
be selected, as described in Section 3.4. Levels of the attributes were based on existing
conditions of the passenger van and a-c bus routes obtained from field surveys. On corridor A,
travel times from TU to VM during peak hours are 60 and 90 minutes, and fares are 30 and 17
baht for the passenger vans and a-c buses respectively. On corridor B, travel times from MTT
to VM are 25 and 45 minutes, and fares are 25 and 17 baht for the passenger vans anda-c buses respectively. On corridor C, travel times from FPR to VM are 40 and 45 minutes,
and fares are 20 and 19 baht for passenger vans and a-c buses. Attributes and attribute levelsof the passenger van and a-c bus included in the study are presented in Table 3.

317

Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

Table 3: The Attributes and Attribute Levels included in the Study
Attributes
Travel time
Transferring
Fare
Seat
Availability

Attributes Levels

Corridor A

Corridor B

Corridor C

Travel time by passenger vans

60 minutes

25 minutes

40 minutes

Travel time by a-c buses

90 minutes

45 minutes

45 minutes

Need to transfer

Transfer

Transfer

Transfer

No need to transfer

No Transfer

No Transfer

No Transfer

Fare of passenger van

30 Baht

25 Baht

20 Baht

Fare of BMTA a-c buses

17 Baht

17 Baht

19 Baht

Guaranteed seat

Guaranteed

Guaranteed

Guaranteed

Not guaranteed seatNot guaranteed

Not guaranteed

Not guaranteed

After selecting the attributes and attribute levels, a set of product concepts or profiles isprepared. One product concept includes one level of each attribute. From Table 3, eachcorridor would require 16 profiles (2x2x2x2) that would be too many for a respondent to rank,order, or score. Therefore, an “orthogonal array” was applied. An orthogonal array is a subsetof all of possible combinations that allows estimation of the part-worths for all main effects(SPSS, 1997). By generating an orthogonal array design, each corridor got a set of ten profiles.
The differences among the three sets of profiles were levels of travel times and fares. In eachset, there were two profiles representing existing conditions of the passenger van and a-c bus
routes. In the surveys, the respondents were asked to assign a rank to each profile from 1 to 10,that is 1 for the most preferred and 10 for the least preferred profiles.

4. RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION
4.1 Characteristics of the Respondents and their Trips
A total of 960 copies of questionnaires were distributed to passenger van and a-c bus users on
the three corridors and 726 copies were completed. Characteristics of the respondents and theirtrips are compared in percentages and summarized in Table 4. From Table 4, percentage offemale respondents on the passenger vans were high (61%, 66% and 62% on corridors A, B,
and C) because the passenger vans offer similar level of services to taxis but give better senseof safety (from crimes) for female passengers who commute on their own. The similar
characteristics of the respondents on the three corridors were majority of them had private
vehicles in their households (83% of all respondents) and their main trip purposes were towork or attend schools (51%) and personal business (31%).
From data in Table 4, chi-square test was applied with the null hypothesis that there is nodifference between the respondents on the passenger vans and a-c buses on the three corridors
in terms of distributions of genders, age groups, household income, household vehicles,
occupation, frequency of travelling by passenger vans/a-c buses, and trip purpose. On corridor
A, results of the chi-square test show that at 95% confident level, distributions of gender, agegroups, household incomes, household vehicles, occupations, and trip purposes of the318

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

respondents on the passenger vans and a-c buses were not different. However, distribution of
frequencies of travel was different. From Table 4, 45% of the respondents on the passengervans travelled by the passenger vans less often than 10 times/month while 31% of the a-c bus
respondents travelled by a-c buses more often than 40 times/month. One possible reason isthat many students in TU and BU stay in dormitories and go home during weekends. The
students, who stay in dormitories, selected the passenger vans for this trip purpose while thestudents, who commute, selected a-c buses to travel between home and universities.
On corridor B, results of the chi-square test show that at 95% confident level, distributions ofage groups, household incomes, household vehicles, occupations, and trip purposes of the
respondents on the two modes were not different but distributions of genders and frequenciesof travel were different. The reason of difference between the frequencies of travel is unclear.
The larger part of the respondents on the passenger vans and a-c buses were female (66%) andmale (52%) respectively. Percentage of female respondents on the passenger vans were highsince the passenger vans offer similar level of services to taxis but give better sense of safety
for female passengers, as mentioned earlier.
On corridor C, results of the chi-square test show that at 95% confident level, distributions ofgenders, household vehicles, frequencies of travel, and trip purposes of the respondents on thetwo modes were not different but distributions of age groups, household incomes, andoccupations were different. The larger part of the passenger van respondents were working
adults (54%), ages older than 20 years old (66%) and had household incomes higher than the
average household income of population in BMR (59%). The majority of the respondents on
the a-c buses was students (67%), age 20 years old and younger (44%), and had householdincomes lower than the average of BMR (57%). The students selected the a-c buses because
they could reach their destinations (VM or RU) without transferring and the a-c bus operator
offers discount bus fares to the students.

319

Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

Table 4: Characteristics of the Respondents and their Trips (%)
Corridor A
GenderAge(years old)
Household Income(baht/month)
Household
VehiclesOccupation
Frequency of travel(times/month)
Trip Purpose

Passenger Van Route 85 (115 completed copies)
Male
39
≤ 20
50
<28,000

Age(years old)
Household Income(baht/month)
Household
VehiclesOccupation
Frequency of travel(times/month)
Trip Purpose

31-40
10
>40,000

41-50
5
n/a.

31-40
6
>40,000

41-50
2
n/a.

> 50
1

30

27

15

28

23

38

11

One mc11
Self
7

One car24
Private
11

Multiple
54
Public12

Others4None
9Student
74

One mc9Self
8

One car22
Private
12

Multiple
58
Public4n/a.
2Others2

10 or less
45
Work
58

11-20
10
Personal
27

21-30
18
Social631-40
7Shopping
4

>40
n/a.
14
6
Others5

10 or less
20
Work
56

11-20
19
Personal
26

21-30
24
Social731-40
4Shopping
6>40
31
Others5

Passenger Van Route 86 (110 completed copies)
Male
34
≤ 20
21

Female
66
21-30
47

31-40
16

41-50
11

<28,000
35
None

28-40,000
21
One mc>40,000
32
One car23

8

Student
34
10 or less
38
Work
44

Female
48
21-30
52

31-40
11

41-50
6

> 50
4

n/a.
12
Multiple<28,000
34
None

28-40,000
22
One mc>40,000
29
One carn/a.
15
Multiple

n/a.

28

41

19

10

36

31

4

Self
17

Private28

Public16

Others5Student
44

Self
11

Private25

Public18

Others2

11-20
11Personal
36

21-30
20
Social731-40
0Shopping
9

>40
n/a.
24
7
Others4

10 or less
24
Work
53

11-20
14
Personal
26

21-30
18
Social931-40
2Shopping
7>40
38
Others5> 50
5Passenger Van Route 83 (123 completed copies)

GenderFemale62

Age(years old)

≤ 20
32

21-30
41

31-40
14

41-50
11

Household Income(baht/month)<28,000

28-40,000>40,000

33

26

33

Household
VehiclesNone
14

One mc13

One car27

Multiple
43

Occupation

Student
46

Self
10

Private30

10 or less

11-20

34

18

Work
51

Personal
31

n/a.
2

BMTA a-c Bus Route 166 (108 completed copies)
Male
52
≤ 20
27

Male
38

Trip Purpose> 50
1Female5121-30
36
28-40,000

28

Corridor C

Frequency of travel(times/month)

BMTA a-c Bus Route 29 (130 completed copies)
Male
49
≤ 20
55
<28,000

None
11
Student
66

Corridor B
GenderFemale6121-30
3428-40,000n/a.
4BMTA a-c Bus Route 538 (140 completed copies)
Male
42

Female
58

≤ 20
44

21-30
42

31-40
8

41-50
5

n/a.

<28,000

28-40,000>40,000

n/a.

8

57

22

9

12

Others3

None
20

One mc22

One car
16

Multiple
40

n/a.
2

Public12

Others2Student
67

Self
5

Private18

Public6

Others
4

21-30

31-40

>40

n/a.

10 or less

11-20

21-30

31-40

>40

n/a.

21

3

20

4

49

14

15

4

16

2

Social8

Shopping
7

Others3

Work
39

Personal
35

Social11

Shopping
9

Others
6

> 50
0

n/a.
2

> 50
1

On the entire three corridors, results of the chi-square test show that at 95% confident level,
distributions of household incomes, household vehicles, and trip purposes of the respondents
on the passenger vans and a-c buses were not different. However, distributions of genders,age groups, occupations, and frequencies of travel were different, but these characteristics
were not significant. From their characteristics, it could be

320

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

concluded that the respondents on the passenger vans and a-c buses were in the same groups
who had household incomes higher than the average household income of BMR (63%), hadprivate vehicles (a motorcycle, a car, or both) in their households (84%), and had main trip
purpose to work or attend school (50%). They were middle income groups and had private
vehicles in their households but used public transport for commuting or going to school.
By checking origins and destinations, it found that on corridor A, 53% of the respondents onpassenger van route 85 travelled on the whole route between VM and TU (45 km) and 45%
travelled between VM and destinations between Rangsit and TU (35-45 km) while none of
the respondents on a-c bus route 29 travelled on the whole route (42.5 km) and only 4%
travelled between VM and destinations between Rangsit and TU. These results show that the
respondents on corridor A selected modes based on their travelling distances, that is, thepassenger vans for long-distance trips and the a-c buses for short-distance trips. On corridor B,
all of respondents on passenger van route 86 and 39% on a-c bus route 166 travelled on thewhole routes between VM and MTT. These results show that the respondents on corridor B
selected modes based on route alignments and distances, that is, the passenger vans, which
had shorter route alignment and travelling time, were selected when the respondents travelledon the whole route and the a-c buses were chosen when they travelled on some part of theroute. On corridor C, 77% of the respondents on passenger van route 83 travelled on thewhole routes between VM and FPR (28 km) and 23% travelled between destinations in the
middle of VM and FPR while 60% of the respondents on a-c bus route 538 travelled on thewhole route between VM and RU (42 km) and 10% travelled between destinations in the
middle of VM and FPR. The respondents on corridor C selected their modes based on their
origins and destinations, that is, the passenger vans for travelling between VM and FPR, thea-c buses for travelling between VM and RU, and either the passenger vans or the a-c buses
for travelling between destinations in the middle of VM and FPR. These results show that the
respondents viewed the two modes as different services and selected their modes based on
travelling distances, route alignments, and origins and destinations.
4.2 Mode Selection Survey
A revealed preference (RP) approach was applied to find regular modes, modes that the
respondents were using regularly before changing to their existing modes, and reasons forselecting or not selecting passenger vans or a-c buses. Stated preference (SP) approach was
employed to examine how the respondents would select their modes under assumptions thatthese passenger van or a-c bus routes were to stop operating and fares were to be increased.
Results of the surveys, which are summarized in Table 5, show that the respondents onpassenger vans and a-c buses on the three corridors provided similar results in mode selection.
56% of the respondents on the passenger van route 85, 48% on route 86, and 69% on route 83
travelled by passenger vans regularly. Before changing to the passenger vans, majority ofthem were travelling by a-c buses. The surveys show that the passenger vans were preferred321

Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

because of their shorter travelling times (25%) and greater comfort because of guaranteedseats (14%) while 56% did not give their reasons. Under the assumption that these passenger
van routes stopped operating, 77% of the respondents on route 85, 75% on route 86, and 68%
on route 83 would change to the a-c buses. Under the assumption that passenger van fares
were increased, 43% of the respondents on route 85, 40% on route 86, and 28% on route 83
would change to the a-c buses. These results show that the respondents on the passenger vansviewed the a-c buses as alternatives.
Table 5: Summary of Mode Selection of the Respondents (%)
Corridor A
RegularMode
Previous
Mode
Stop
operatingPassenger Van Route 85 (115 respondents)
Van
56
Van
Van
-

a-c bus43

a-c bus
Bus
Car
29
10
1
a-c bus
Bus
Car
37
10
2
a-c bus
Bus
Car
77
7
5
Change to new mode
57
Bus
Car
Taxi
5
5
-

Van
48
Van
Van
-

a-c bus29
a-c bus28
a-c bus75

Fare
increasedNew
Modes
Corridor B
RegularMode
Previous
Mode
Stop
operating

Taxi
Taxi
1
Taxi
2

Others4
Others2
Others3
No
41

BMTA a-c Bus Route 29 (130 respondents)
n/a.
n/a.
47
n/a.
6
n/a
2

Others
4

Van
14
Van
13
Van
47

Van
19

Passenger Van Route 86 (110 respondents)
Bus
11
Bus
8
Bus
5

Car
2
Car
4
Car
6

Taxi
2
Taxi
Taxi
3

Change to new mode48

Fareincreased

Others3
Others4
Others
5
No
62

n/a.
n/a.
37
n/a.
4
n/a
-

Others2

BMTA a-c Bus Route 166 (108 respondents)

Others5
Others5
Others
2

n/a.
3
n/a.
55
n/a.
9

No
52

n/a
-

a-c bus66
a-c busa-c bus
-

Bus
12
Bus
33
Bus
31

Car
Car
4
Car
2

Taxi
Taxi
Taxi
2

Change to new mode
29

Previous
Mode

Others1
Others
9

n/a.
1
n/a.
30

Van
24
Van
19

a-c bus64
a-c bus
-

Car
Car
6

Taxi
Taxi
-

Others1
Others
7

n/a.
n/a.
41

Stop
operatingVan-

a-c bus
Bus
Car
68
10
4
Change to new mode
42
Bus
Car
Taxi
3
1
1

Taxi
5

Others
10
No
57

n/a.
3
n/a
1

Van
67

a-c bus
Bus
Car
17
1
Change to new mode
42
Bus
Car
Taxi
12
1

Taxi
1

Others
7
No
56

n/a.
7
n/a
2

Fare
increased
a-c bus28

Others
9

Taxi
-

n/a
3

Taxi
2
Taxi
2

Bus
10
Bus
7

Car
1

No
68

Car
2
Car
2

Passenger Van Route 83 (123 respondents)

Bus
7

n/a.
3
n/a.
32
n/a.
15

a-c bus15
a-c bus
50

New
Modes

Van
19

Others2
Others12
Others
6

Van
69
Van
-

RegularMode

Others
1

Van
17
Van
19
Van
44

Bus
3

Corridor C

Taxi
3

Taxi
Taxi
2
Taxi
4

a-c bus
40

New
Modes

Car
1

a-c bus
Bus
Car
65
18
a-c bus
Bus
Car
38
6
a-c bus
Bus
Car
38
2
Change to new mode
38
Bus
Car
Taxi
14
1
1

Others2

BMTA a-c Bus Route 538 (140 respondents)

Van
27

Bus
11
Bus
27

Others2

For the respondents on a-c buses, 65% of the respondents on a-c bus route 29, 66% on route
166, and 64% on route 538 travelled by the a-c buses frequently. Before changing to the a-cbuses, they were travelling by regular buses (33%) and passenger vans (17%). The a-c buses
were preferred due to the comfort of air-conditioning (16%), and convenience (5%) while
37% did not give their reasons. The passenger vans were less preferred due to expensive fares(21%), discomforts such as narrow space (10%) and crowded (6%), and inconvenient such as
needed to travel to passenger van terminals (6%) and needed to transfer (3%) while 46% did
not give their reasons. Under the assumption that these a-c bus routes stopped operating, 47%
on route 29, 44% on route 166, and 67% on route 538 would change to passenger vans while
38% on route 29, 31% on route 166, and 17% on route 538 would change to regular buses.
Under the assumption that the a-c bus fares were increased, 19% of the respondents on route322

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

29, 19% on route 166, and 27% on route 538 would change to travel by the passenger
vanswhile 14% on route 29, 7% on route 166, and 12% on route 538 would change to regularbuses. These results show that the respondents on the a-c buses viewed the passenger vans as
one of alternative rather than regular buses.
The above results show that the effect of increasing passenger van fares was not significant
factor for the respondents on the passenger vans because 51% of them would continue
travelling by the passenger vans and 38% would change to the a-c buses. The a-c buses werethe main alternative mode for them since more than 70% of them would change to a-c buses
when these passenger van routes stopped operating. Surprising results were that when fares of
the a-c buses were to be increased, 63% of all respondents on the a-c bus would continue
travelling by the a-c buses and 23% of them would change to the passenger vans. It could beconcluded that that the respondents on the two modes did not considered only fares of eachmode as the principal factor in their choices. It might be that price elasticity of demand is nothigh. Results of the mode selection survey show that the respondents on the passenger vansviewed the a-c buses as alternatives and the respondents on the a-c buses viewed thepassenger vans and regular buses as alternatives. Only a small number of the respondents on
both modes consider cars and taxis in their mode choices. This result shows that the passengervans are not only the “cream skimming” but they are essential mode for road public transport
in Bangkok.
4.3 Opinions of the Respondents
Results of the questionnaire surveys show that 79% of the respondents on the passenger vansagreed that the van fares were reasonable while 66% of the respondents on a-c buses agreed
that the a-c bus fares were reasonable. Planned schedules of the passenger van and a-c bus
routes were provided in the questionnaires, 68% and 70% of the respondents on the passengervans and a-c buses agreed that the planned schedules were adequate but only 39% and 25% ofthem agreed that the actual schedules were consistent with the planed schedules. These results
show that the a-c bus and passenger van schedules were not reliable.
According to BMTA regulations, passenger van drivers are not allowed to pick up passengers
from bus stops along their routes. In practice, passenger van drivers pick up passengers along
their routes and claim that they offer more choice of modes and more convenience forcommuters. The surveys show that 57% of the entire respondents on the passenger vans anda-c buses disagreed with picking up passengers along the routes, as presented in Table 6,
because it caused traffic congestion and increased their travelling times. The respondents,
who agreed (39%), gave the reason that it offered more convenience for commuters who live
far from van terminals.
DLT regulations require a passenger van to have a capacity of 12 seats including a driver.
However, most van drivers have added another row of three seats to carry 14 passengers. Van

323

Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

drivers agreed that the regulated capacity should be increased to 14 seats. In opposition, 90%of the respondents on the passenger vans agreed that a capacity of 14 seats were
uncomfortable and unsafe. Similarly, BMTA a-c buses have a regulated capacity of 46 seatsand 30 standees, but the number of passengers during peak hours is higher. Consequently,
82% of the respondents on the a-c buses agreed that operations over capacity were
uncomfortable and unsafe. Regarding passenger van entry regulations, most passenger van
drivers disagreed with entry deregulation because it would increase competition for obtaining
customers. However, 50% of the entire respondents agreed that passenger van entry should bederegulated, as shown in Table 6, because number of passenger vans would be increased tomeet demands of users, it provided more alternatives for commuters, passengers would beprotected, and it would lead to competition in terms of fare reduction and quality
improvements. The respondents who disagreed (44%) worried that the deregulation would
cause traffic congestion since the number of passenger vans would be increased.
Table 6: Opinions of the Respondents Regarding Passenger Van Regulations
Corridors
Corridor A
Corridor B
Corridor C
All threecorridors

Respondents
115 van users (100%)

Picking up passengers along routes

Deregulation of passenger van entry

AgreedDisagreedn/a.

AgreedDisagreedn/a.

43 (37%)65 (57%)7 (6%)

67 (58%)38 (33%)10 (9%)

130 bus users (100%)

62 (48%)65 (50%)3 (2%)

69 (53%)58 (45%)3 (2%)

110 van users (100%)

27 (24%)

82 (75%)

1 (1%)

56 (51%)49 (45%)5 (4%)

108 bus users (100%)

44 (41%)58 (54%)6 (5%)

45 (42%)57 (53%)

6 (5%)

123 van users (100%)

56 (46%)63 (51%)

4 (3%)

56 (46%)57 (46%)

10 (8%)

140 bus users (100%)

53 (38%)79 (56%)8 (6%)

72 (52%)59 (42%)

9 (6%)

348 van users (100%)

126 (36%)210 (60%)

12 (4%)

179 (51%)

144 (41%)

25 (8%)

378 bus users (100%)

159 (42%)202 (53%)

17 (4%)

186 (49%)

174 (46%)

18 (5%)

726 respondents (100%)

285 (39%)412 (57%)

29 (4%)365 (50%)318 (44%)43 (6%)

4.4 Results of Conjoint Analysis
During the questionnaire surveys, the respondents were asked to assign a rank to different setsof ten profiles prepared by conjoint analysis. After data was collected, the conjoint procedure
was applied to the collected data to calculate utility scores or values of each attribute level.
Utility values of the attribute levels based on preferences of the respondents are presented inTable 7. Utility values and averaged importance in Table 7 show that the respondents on
corridors A and B considered the difference between “not guaranteed seat” and “guaranteed
seat” as more important than the difference between “no transfer” and “transfer”. On corridor
C, the respondents considered the difference between “no transfer” and “transfer” as more
important than the difference between “not guaranteed seat” and “guaranteed seat” because
costs of travelling would be increased when passengers needed to transfer. To arrive at RU,
users of the passenger van route 83 have to transfer to another van route or the a-c bus route538. The transferring increases traveling costs by 15 baht for the a-c buses. On corridors A
and B, transferring was also needed but the difference between “no transfer” and “transfer”
was less important because the increasing fares were 6 and 10 baht for regular and a-c buses.

324

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

Table 7: Averaged Importance and Utility Values of the Attributes
Corridor A
Mode
Attributes

Averaged
Importance

Seat
Availability

30.23

Transferring

25.56

Travel time

24.72

Fare

19.49

Corridor B
Mode
Attributes

Averaged
Importance

Seat
Availability

36.25

Transferring

30.52

Travel time

28.78

Fare

4.45

Corridor C
Mode
Attributes

Averaged
ImportanceTransferring

42.39

Seat
Availability

37.64

Travel time

18.10

Fare

1.87

Passenger Van Route 85
Attribute
Utility
Level
ValuesNot guaranteed
1.8772
Guaranteed seat3.7544

No transfer-1.5877

Transfer-3.1754

60 minutes-3.0702

90 minutes-4.6053

17 Baht-1.5830

30 Baht-2.7935

Passenger Van Route 86
Attribute
Utility
Level
ValuesNot guaranteed
2.2353
Guaranteed seat

4.4706

No transfer-1.8824

Transfer-3.7647

25 minutes-2.2181

45 minutes-3.9926

17 Baht-0.5833

25 Baht-0.8578

Passenger Van Route 83
Attribute
Utility
Level
ValuesNo transfer-2.6818
Transfer-5.3636

Not guaranteed

2.3818

Guaranteed seat4.763640 minutes-9.1636

45 minutes-10.309

19 Baht

2.245520 Baht

2.3636

BMTA a-c Bus Route 29
Averaged
Attribute
ImportanceLevel
Not guaranteed
33.94
Guaranteed seat

UtilityGain

Mode
Attributes

1.8772Seat
Availability-1.5877

Transferring

26.68-1.5351

Travel time

21.50

-1.2105

Fare

17.88

UtilityGain

Mode
Attributes

2.2353Seat
Availability-1.8823

Transferring

30.87-1.7745

Travel time

29.73

-0.2745

Fare

8.39

UtilityGain

Mode
Attributes-2.6818

Transferring

2.3818Seat
Availability

34.83-1.1454

Travel time

18.80

0.1181Fare

1.27

UtilityValue
2.25864.5172

No transfer-1.7759

Transfer-3.551760 minutes-2.862190 minutes-4.2931

17 Baht-1.5557

30 Baht-2.7454

BMTA a-c Bus Route 166
Averaged
Attribute
ImportanceLevel
Not guaranteed
31.01
Guaranteed seat

UtilityValue
2.18004.3600No transfer-2.1700

Transfer-4.3400

25 minutes-2.612545 minutes-4.7025

17 Baht-1.2538

25 Baht-1.8438

BMTA a-c Bus Route 538
Averaged
Attribute
Utility
Importance
Level
Value
No transfer-2.715345.10
Transfer-5.4306
Not guaranteed

2.0972

Guaranteed seat4.194440 minutes-9.0556

45 minutes-10.187

19 Baht

1.451420 Baht

1.5278

UtilityGain
2.2586-1.7758-1.4310-1.1897

UtilityGain
2.1800-2.1700-2.0900-0.5900

UtilityGain-2.7153
2.0972-1.13140.0764

The above results show that the respondents had the same major concerns in selecting theirmodes, namely comfort (seat availability), convenience (no transfer), and short travelling time,
while the differences of prices (fares) of the passenger vans and a-c buses were not ofimportance. Furthermore, the results in Table 7 show that averaged importance of attributes “travel time” and “fare” on corridor A were higher than those on corridors B and C. One
reason was that the attribute levels of corridor A were the most different (60 and 90 minutes,
and 17 and 30 baht) while the attribute levels of corridor B were smaller different than on
corridor A (25 and 45 minutes, and 17 and 25 baht), and the attribute levels of corridor C
were not much different (40 and 45 minutes, and 19 and 20 baht).
The utility values can be added together to get the total utility of a profile. The profiles withhigher total utilities represent higher preferences. Table 8 presents total utilities of the ten
profiles of corridor A. The best service was profile 7 while the worst service was profile 5.
Profile 4, which represented existing conditions of the passenger van route 85, received
higher preference than profile 9, which represented existing conditions of the a-c bus route 29,
but total utility scores were not so different. This means, under the existing conditions on
corridor A, the respondents on passenger van route 85 had little potential to transfer to the a-c

325Market analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

buses. They would transfer to modes that have combinations of attributes as presented in
profiles 7, 2, and 3 while the respondents on the a-c buses had potential to transfer topassenger vans. Rankings of the profiles by the respondents on the passenger vans and a-cbuses were not the same because the utility values, which the respondents on the two modes
gained when the attribute levels were changed, were slightly different, as shown in Table 7.
Table 8: Ranking of Profiles by the Respondents on Corridor A
Ranking of Profiles by the Respondents on Passenger Van Route 85
Transferring
Fare
Seat Availability
Total Utility

Rank

ProfilesTravel Time1

7

60 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Guaranteed seat7.60532

2

60 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat5.7281

3

3

90 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Guaranteed seat4.85974

4

60 minTransfer

30 Baht

Guaranteed seat

4.8071

5

10

60 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat

4.5176

6

1

90 minTransfer

17 Baht

Guaranteed seat4.48257

9

90 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat

4.193

8

6

90 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat2.98259

8

60 minTransfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat2.929910

5

90 minTransfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat2.6053

Rank

ProfilesTravel Time1

7

60 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Guaranteed seat7.82752

2

60 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat5.56893

3

90 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Guaranteed seat

5.20684

4

60 minTransfer

30 Baht

Guaranteed seat

4.862

5

1

90 minTransfer

17 Baht

Guaranteed seat4.62076

10

60 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat4.3792

7

9

90 minNo transfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat4.13798

6

90 minNo transfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat

2.94829

8

60 minTransfer

30 Baht

Not guaranteed seat2.603410

5

90 minTransfer

17 Baht

Not guaranteed seat2.3621

Ranking of Profiles by the Respondents on BMTA a-c Bus Route 29
Transferring
Fare
Seat Availability
Total Utility

For corridor B, the results were similar to corridor A. The respondents on the two modes gave
better rank to a profile that represented existing conditions of the passenger van route 86 thanthe profile that represented existing conditions of the a-c bus route 166. This means, under the
existing conditions on corridor B, the respondents on passenger van route 86 had no potential
to transfer to a-c buses while the respondents on the a-c buses had potential to transfer topassenger vans. Similarly on corridor C, the profile that represented existing conditions of thepassenger van route 83 received higher preference than the profile that represented existing
conditions of the a-c bus route 538. This means, under the existing conditions on corridor C,
the respondents on passenger van route 83 had small potential to transfer to BMTA a-c buses
while the respondents on the a-c buses had potential to transfer to the passenger vans. The
results of conjoint analysis show that preferences of the respondents on the passenger vans
and the a-c buses were similar.

326

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

4.5 Market Analysis of the Passenger Vans
Leopairojna and Hanaoka (2005) studied market structure of the passenger vans on corridor A
based on information from the supply side and found that there was no price competition
between the passenger vans and a-c buses. Operators of the two modes competed in providing
different type of services that were express with guaranteed seats (passenger vans) and slow
without guaranteed seats but cheaper (a-c buses). The study concluded that under the existing
entry and maximum fare regulations, market structure of the passenger vans was an oligopoly
market with implication of production differentiation where different firms, that were BMTA
and passenger van operators, provide different quality of services.
Carlton and Perloff (1990) explain that an oligopoly market is a market where there are a few
firms. Each firm considers the other firms as its competitors. They produce homogeneous
products, act independently but concern about how their competitors react when they makedecisions in their prices or outputs. Varian (1999) describes that each firm attempts to get
more customers by making its product similar to products of the other firms but this strategy
does not succeed all the time. A reverse strategy to get more customers is making thecustomers think that its product is different from the products of its competitors, that is,
product differentiation.
Following the above study, additional overlapped passenger van and a-c bus routes and thedemand side were analyzed in this study. From route alignments of the passenger vans and a-cbuses, it seemed like the two modes offered the same services that transported passengers
between the city center and the centers in suburbs by air-conditioning vehicles. However, thepassenger van and the a-c bus services were different, as presented in Table 3. The passengervans supplied express services for long-distance trips with guaranteed seats and higher fares
while the a-c buses provided slow services with not guaranteed seats but cheaper fares andmany bus stops for short-distance trips. This information reveals that the passenger vans,which were new comers of the market, started their firms by offering similar services to thea-c buses and attempted to get more customers by making the passenger van services different
from the a-c bus services, that is, fast in long distance and guaranteed seats. For the demandside analysis, results of the questionnaire surveys show that the respondents on the passengervans and a-c buses had similar characteristics and agreed in the same matters regarding thepassenger van regulations. Furthermore, results of the conjoint analysis show that they had
similar preferences. Therefore, it could be concluded that the users of the two modes were in
the same group. From mode selection survey, it found that they considered the two modes asalternatives. They did not consider only fares of the two modes as principle factor in selecting
their choices but also considered comfort and convenience. These results correlate withresults of the conjoint analysis where “fare” got the least importance while “seat availability”
and “transferring” received the higher importance from the respondents. Results of checking
origins and destinations show that they selected the passenger vans or the a-c buses based on
their own conditions and conditions of each mode. Conditions of the respondents included
their trip distances (long or short distances) and their origins and destinations, and conditionsof the passenger van and a-c bus routes were route alignments (direct or detour routes) andMarket analysis passenger vans in Bangkok

327

seat availability (guaranteed or not guaranteed seat). These information shows that the
respondents viewed the passenger vans and the a-c buses as different product or services.
The analyses of the additional overlapped passenger van and a-c bus routes and the demandside in this paper verify that there was no price competition between the passenger vans anda-c buses. The passenger van market is an oligopoly market with implication of productdifferentiation. Price competition can be initiated by deregulation of the passenger van entry.
Deregulating only the entry regulation while maintaining other regulations would bring morelicensed passenger vans in the market and generate fair and competitive market environments
where services would be improved and fares would be reduced. In addition, the illegal
passenger vans would be licensed, passengers would be protected by insurances, and BMTA
would earn more concession fees. In addition, this study found that the actual number ofpassenger vans operating on the corridor was lower than the minimum number of quota under
the DLT license permission. This result shows that the passenger van quota had little
influence to the passenger van operation since the passenger van companies observed demandof passengers on the route and determined to supply the quantity of their services tocomplement the observed demand. Therefore, the passenger van quota should be cancelled.

5. CONCLUSION
In this paper, an overview of Bangkok and its public transport operation with development ofpassenger van services was provided. The regulation policy of the passenger vans based on
opinions of the users was evaluated. Results of chi-square test show that distributions ofhousehold incomes, household vehicles, and trip purposes of the respondents on the passengervans and a-c buses were not different. The respondents on the two modes were in the samegroups who were middle income groups and had private vehicles in their households but usedpublic transport for commuting or going to school. Mode selection survey show that the
respondents considered the two modes as alternatives. The respondents considered comfort,
convenience and fare as the principal factors in their mode choices. Respondent opinions
show that 79% of the respondents on the passenger vans agreed that the existing passenger
van fares according to the maximum fare regulation were reasonable. For the entry regulation,
50% of the entire respondents agreed with the entry deregulation while 44% worried that the
deregulation would increase the number of passenger vans and lead to worse traffic
congestion. About passenger van capacity, 90% of the respondents on the passenger vansagreed that overload of the passenger vans made them feel uncomfortable and unsafe. Most
respondents on both modes disagreed with allowing passenger van drivers to pick up
passengers along the routes since it causes congestion. It is concluded, therefore, that thepassenger van regulations regarding safety and qualities of the services should be remained.
The pilot survey of public transport users shows that the respondents considered in-vehicle
travel time, completing a trip without transferring, fare, and comfort as the most important
attributes in selecting their modes respectively. Conjoint analysis shows that they considered
the difference between “not guaranteed seat” and “guaranteed seat” as more important than328

S.K. Leopairojna and S. Hanaoka

the difference between “passenger van fares” and “BMTA a-c bus fares”, that is, comfort andconvenience were more important than fares. The government policy in keeping bus services
as a welfare function and providing cheap services is not appropriate for the a-c bus services
since this paper shows that the a-c bus and the passenger van users, which were in the samegroup, considered comfort and convenience instead of fares in selecting their choices.
Market analysis of the passenger vans show that there was no price competition between thepassenger vans and a-c buses on the three corridors. The passenger van market was anoligopoly market with implication of product differentiation. The study recommends thatremoving the passenger van quota, that is, deregulating only the entry regulation while
maintaining other regulations would bring more licensed passenger vans in the market andgenerate fair and competitive market environments where users would be benefit.

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