An Under taking of
The Inter national Association for Ear thquake Engineer ing (IAEE)
in suppor t of
The Inter national Decade for Natur al Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)/INCEDE
ICUS

US
TR
IAL

OF
TOKY
O
ER
SI
TY

WORLD SEISMIC SAFETY INITIATIVE (WSSI)

D
IN
OF
TE
INSTITU

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region- Proceedings of the 3rd WSSI International Workshop -ICUS REPORT 2004-01

SCIEN
CE

IV
UN
THE

INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR
URBAN SAFETY ENGINEERING
INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL SCIENCETHE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYOSEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT FOR
COUNTRIES OF THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION

Prof. T. C. Pan, Secretary, WSSI
Director, Protective Technology Research Centre
Nanyang Technological University
50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798
Tel: (+65) 6790-5285
Fax: (+65) 6791-0046
E-mail: cpan@ntu.edu.sg
http://www.ntu.edu.sg/ptrc/

ICUS REPORT 2004-01

INTERNATIONAL CENTERFOR URBAN SAFETY ENGINEERING
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku,
Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
Tel: (+81-3)5452-6472
Fax: (+81-3)5452-6476
http://icus.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
E-mail: icus@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp- Proceedings of the 3rd WSSI International Workshop -Edited by

Kimiro Meguro, Dushmanta Dutta
ICUS, The University of Tokyo, Japan
and

Tsuneo Katayama
NIED, Tsukuba, Japan

ISBN 4-9902067-0-3

Serial Number 5

CONTENTS
K. MEGURO, D. DUTTA and T. KATAYAMA- Introduction…………………….............................................................1
T. KATAYAMA- Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety Initiative……………...……5
H. C. SHAH
- The Last Mile-Earthquake Risk Mitigation
Assistance in Developing Countries. ……………………..………… 15
W. IWAN, K. MEGURO and B. TUCKER- Report of WSSI Futures Committee………………………….....…….21

COUNTRY REPORTS
M. A. ANSARYBANGLADESH- Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh…….………..…27
S. K. JAIN
INDIA
- Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India………………...45
K. PRIBADI, D. HOEDAJANTO and T. BOEN
INDONESIA- Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities inIndonesia Jan 1999-Nov 2003………………………………………..59
M. NURAHMETKAZAKHSTANThe Consequence of Earthquake ‘Lugovaya’ in
Zhambyl Region of the Republic of Kazakhstan…………………….73
S. DEMBERELMONGOLIA- The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia…………..…….81
M. SOE and H. H. MYO
MYANMAR- Seismological Activities in Myanmar……………………….……….97

A. M. DIXIT and B. H. PANDEY
NEPAL- Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal……..…..…119

A. BAUTISTAPHILIPPINES- Earthquake Risk Mitigation Efforts:
The Philippine Experience.................................................................143

C. H. YEH, H. Y. HO and K. C. TSAITAIWAN- Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard
Mitigation in Taiwan……………………………...............................153
A. HASHAM and M. BAIDULLOEVATAJIKSTAN- Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives…….........169
B. M. KIGGUNDU and E. M. TWESIGOMWE
UGANDA- Seismic Risk Awareness Activities in Uganda………….…….…....183
N. H. PHUONG
VIETNAM- Earthquake Hazard and Earthquake Risk Assessment in
Vietnam……..........…………………………………………..….….193

JICA REPORTS ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONTOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER REDUCTION
M. WATANABE
JICA, Japan- JICA’s Development Cooperation for Earthquake Disaster
Reduction……………………………………………………………203
M. TAKAHASHI and T. TANAKAOyo International Corporation, Japan- Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey……209
I. KOBAYASHI
Pacific Consultants International, Japan- Urban Disaster Prevention and Management for the Tehran Area….223
Y. EGAWA
Nippon Koei Co., Ltd, Japan- “Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the Study of Seismic Disaster
Management in the Kathmandu Valley……………………………..231

REPORTS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
N. M. S. I. ARAMBEPOLA
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center- Partnerships Towards Earthquake Risk Reduction:
An Overview of ADPC Endeavors…………….….. ………………247
E. TSUNOZAKI and T. ISHII
Asian Disaster Reduction Center- ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction in Asia.……………...255

Y. FUKASAWA
Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Institution
Transfer Live Lessons of Catastrophic Disasters ………………….269
R. SHAW
United Nations Centre for Regional Development- Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions……………..……...271

S. HERATH
United Nations University- UNU-WSSI: A Partnership for Global Disaster Risk Reduction…...291

APPENDICES
Appendix 1.

Workshop Program………………………………..……………295

Appendix 2.

List of Participants…………………………..………………….299

Appendix 3.

Workshop Recommendations……..……………………..……..309

Appendix 4.

Outcomes of the WSSI Questionnaire Survey …………………311

At the Opening Ceremony…

INTRODUCTION
K. MEGURO1, D. DUTTA1 and T. KATAYAMA2
1
ICUS, IIS, University of Tokyo, Japan
2
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention,
Tsukuba, Japan

This report contains the proceedings of the third International
Workshop on Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia PacificRegion organized by the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) during
December 7-8, 2003.
This was the third international workshop organized by WSSI in
Bangkok, Thailand. The main objectives of WSSI to organize this workshop
were to stock in its own programs and to learn from its past experience andthat of the countries WSSI has worked with.
The workshop was successful in creating a platform to look in depth
to the past activities of WSSI in different countries and their impacts inseismic risk management.

1.

BACKGROUND

The first Bangkok workshop was held in February 1993 with a themeof assessing the status of earthquake mitigation policies and plans in placein the countries of the Asia Pacific Region. This region historically had
many earthquakes and extensive economic and human losses. The region
during the decade of the 80s and early 90s was going through majorurbanization and economic development. With the declaration of the
IDNDR program in the early 90s, it was most appropriate that WSSI would
compile a status of earthquake mitigation policies within the countries of the
Asia Pacific Region. With that goal in mind, a workshop was organized
during February 8-11, 1993 in Bangkok. This was the first major effort of
WSSI after its formation in 1992. Thirty participants from nineteen
countries were invited and attended the workshop and provided a written
record of their countries’ mitigation policies and plans. The work was
published as proceedings of the workshop by WSSI and the International
Center for Disaster-mitigation Engineering (INCEDE), with assistanceprovided by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (Meguro and Katayama, 1993).
After the first Bangkok workshop, various programs and efforts were
initiated by International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)and by other international organizations in many of the countries that had
attended the first Bangkok workshop. So it was decided to reconvene andre-enact the 1993 Bangkok workshop five years later during January 18-20,
1999. The purpose of the second workshop was to once again compile andrecord the achievements made by the countries, which were present in the1993 study. The second workshop in 1999 provided a wonderful and most
crucial data on the achievements (or lack of) of IDNDR during the five
years since the 1993 workshop. Almost all the countries that had been1

December 2003, Bangkok

present at the 1993 workshop were once again invited to the second
workshop. WSSI, INCEDE, and the United Nations University (UNU)
published proceedings of the second workshop (Meguro and Shah, 1999).
Once again, it is almost five years since the second Bangkok
workshop. Also, it has been almost ten years since the founding of WSSI.
During those ten years, WSSI has worked with many countries around theworld in general and in Asia Pacific Region in particular. WSSI and its
programs during those ten+ years had some remarkable successes in somecountries and in others; they have not been able to make an impact in termsof implementation of risk mitigation strategies. Also during those ten+ years,
WSSI has learned a lot in terms of its goals, objectives, and methods ofoperations. WSSI in 2003 has more experience of what works and what
does not work. WSSI understands the limits of what it can achieve with theresources it has.
2.

OBJECTIVES

To take stock in its own programs and to learn from its past experienceand those of the countries WSSI has worked with, it was decided to hold thethird Bangkok workshop in December 7-8, 2003. The purposes of thisworkshop were to:
1. Learn from the countries where WSSI programs have made somepositive difference in terms of earthquake risk mitigation andmanagement.
2. Learn from the countries where WSSI programs have not made any
major impact in terms of earthquake risk mitigation efforts.
3. Develop a plan in consultation with all the attending countries about
what WSSI should do for the next five years and where they should
focus their human and financial resources.
It has been anticipated that such an effort would help the Board of
WSSI to develop a robust five-year plan which could be a “Road Map” for
WSSI and which could be consistent with the needs and resources of WSSI
for the coming years.
3.

THE WORKSHOPThe workshop was attended by 52 participants from 19 countries. The
participants included the representatives from most of the countries thatparticipated in the last two Bangkok workshops of WSSI in 1993 and 1999.
The workshop was also attended by the representatives from a few other
Asian countries for the first time, representatives from six internationalorganizations, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and threeprivate sector organizations involved in JICA projects. Appendix 2 of thisreport includes the complete list of the participants in the workshop.
The two-day program of the workshop started with the Opening
Session, where the objectives and agenda of the workshop and past
activities of WSSI were presented by the WSSI Board of Directors (BoD)
Chairman and three members of BoD. It was followed by five technicalsessions and a discussion session. The detailed program of the workshop is
included in Appendix 1 of this report. The five technical sessions included
presentations of country reports from 14 countries and four JICA reports on

2

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5international cooperation projects towards earthquake disaster reduction in
Asia. The country reports emphasized on the earthquake risk mitigation
efforts, strategies, responses and assessment measures initiated in theirrespective countries. Important roles played by WSSI as a catalyst ininitiating several activities for earthquake disaster reduction in different
countries are highlighted in the country reports. The four presentations on
JICA related activities introduced major projects and programs of JICA oninternational cooperation, which have been implemented in an attempt toreduce seismic risk in different countries of Asia.
In the discussion session, the representatives of the six internationalorganizations including Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), ADPC,
Disaster Reduction Institution (DRI), United Nations Center for Regional
Development (UNCRD) and UNU, presented their views on WSSI activities
and past, present and future collaborations with WSSI in seismic risk
management in the region. It was followed by a general discussion held toanalyze the success and failure of past activities of WSSI and to formulate
the guidelines for future activities based on the needs of the region.
4.

OUTCOMES

The participants in their reports acknowledged WSSI’s role in being acatalyst to many countries in the Asia Pacific Region in improving theirearthquake risk awareness. They have also suggested scope of activities
where WSSI can contribute and make an impact. The participants
unanimously agreed that the mission of WSSI should be to reduce
earthquake risk (and vulnerability) in vulnerable communities in developing
countries with a view to assist sustainability of these communities, and that
this should be pursued through developing and promoting an integrated
approach adapted to the specific conditions of the communities.
It was noted and decided that WSSI should provide mechanisms throughwhich a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary approach is insured inaddressing the earthquake problems in the region. In understanding thatWSSI should divert its focus from paying more attention from engineering/
technical part to the social dimensions of the disaster reduction with a viewto paving the last mile in materializing the fruits of research. The
recommendation of the discussion session, summarized by the WSSI BoD
Chairperson, Dr. T. Katayama of National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Tsukuba, Japan, is included in the
Appendix 3.
5.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTWSSI greatly appreciates the following three Japanese organizations
for their generous donations to hold the 3rd International Workshop on
Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region,
December 7-8, 2003, Bangkok, Thailand.
• Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.
• OYO Corporation• Pacific Consultants International
We sincerely thank Ms. Roopa Rakshit, the Editorial Associate of theRegional Network Office for Urban Safety (RNUS) of ICUS at AIT, for her
tremendous help in various editorial activities in making this report. Without

Introduction3

December 2003, Bangkok

her sincere efforts, it would not have been possible to bring this report toyou in such a short time. We also appreciate very much Mr. Booker M.
Ajuoga from Uganda for allowing us to use his photographs in this report.

REFERENCES
1. Meguro, K. and T. Katayama (1993) (ed.). “Seismic Risk Management
for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region”, Proceedings of the WSSIInternational Workshop, INCEDE Report No. 5, University of Tokyo,
Japan, 192 pages.
2. Meguro, K. and H. C. Shah (1999) (ed.). “Seismic Risk Management forCountries of the Asia Pacific Region”, Proceedings of the WSSI Second
International Workshop, INCEDE Report No. 14, University of Tokyo,
Japan, 216 pages.

4

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

REPORT OF WSSI FUTURES COMMITTEE
W. IWAN, K. MEGURO and B. TUCKER
Members, Board of Directors
WSSI
Committee Recommendation
The Futures Committee recommends that:
Either WSSI should revise its Mission and Goals along with
its operational structure, or WSSI should be dissolved.
1.

HISTORY OF WSSI

The World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) was established in 1992
as an undertaking of the International Association of Earthquake
Engineering (IAEE) to promote the spirit and goals of the International
Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The IDNDR has beenconcluded, but the vision that motivated these world-wide efforts has lived
on. At present, WSSI is an independent not-for-profit organization
incorporated in Singapore and governed by a Board of Directors. The
President of the IAEE is an Ex-Officio member of the Board of WSSI, butthere is no formal (legal) connection between the two organizations.
2.

REVISED MISSION STATEMENTThe Committee recommends that the Mission Statement of WSSI be revised
as follows:
The Mission of WSSI is to reduce the level of earthquake riskin the most vulnerable communities in developing countries
to an acceptable level consistent with sustainability of thesecommunities.

3.

RECOMMENDED GUIDING PRINCIPLES

Rather than a set of specific goals, the Committee recommends thatWSSI adopt the following Guiding Principles of operation. These principles
should provide the underlying framework for all activities of WSSI.
The Guiding Principles of WSSI are to:
1. Act as a catalyst and facilitator rather than implementerof large projects.
2. Focus on development of regional and local awareness,
capacity, and leadership.
3. Emphasize low cost high benefit strategies to address its
Mission.

21

December 2003, Bangkok

4. Emphasize strategies that span the “last mile” to affected
communities.
5. Cooperate with organizations having similar goals on a
non-competitive basis.
4.

ACTIVITIES CONSISTENT WITH PROPOSED MISSION AND
GUIDING PRINCIPLESThe Committee believes the following types of activities are consistent withthe proposed Mission and Guiding Principles. This list is not intended to be
exhaustive.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

5.

High Level Meetings
Safer Cities Program
Leadership development and recognition programs
Education and training programs including workshops
Development of disaster prevention infrastructure
Earthquake reconnaissance programs
Regional, national, and international conferences

RECOMMENDED STRUCTURAL REORGANIZATIONThe Committee believes that structural reorganization of WSSI isimperative. The proposed reorganization is designed to not alter the basics
character of WSSI but significantly improve its operational capabilities. The
fundamental change made in the reorganization is to:
Establish a new operations and management element within
WSSI (the “Management Team”) to support the present
Administrative Structure (the Board of Directors andOfficers).
The Management Team would serve a similar function to the “staff”
of an operational organization while still being responsible to the
Administrative Structure of WSSI (The Board of Directors). The basic
concept of the proposed new structure is shown in Figure 1.
WSSI Board
Board ofofDirectors
WSSI
Directors

Management
Management
Team
Team
Operations and Management
Operations and Management
Functions

Administrative
Administrative
Sub -Structuree
Sub-Structur

Legal and Oversight
FunctionsFigure 1: Proposed Organizational Structure

22

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

6.

EXPECTED BENEFITS OF THE REORGANIZATION
1. Allows the Administrative Structure (The Board of
Directors and Officers) to function in a vision setting andoversight role without worrying about day-to-day
operations.
2. Places day-to-day operational management in the hands ofa team of individuals who are selected for their experience,
availability and other attributes needed to undertake thisfunction.

7.

ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE

The Administrative structure would remain essentially as it ispresently. This structure consists of a Board of Directors who areindividuals with international stature and demonstrated administrative skills
and the Officers of the Corporation. In the future, it is envisioned that theorganization may possibly be expanded to include such entities as:
National and/or Regional Sub-Committees, andProject Advisory Committees involving a mix of local, international,
junior, and senior individuals
The Administrative structure is shown in figure 2:

Board ofDirectors
Corporate
CorporateOfficers
Officers

Regional SubRegional
SubCommittees
committees

National SubNational
SubCommittees
Committees

Project Advisory
Project
Advisory
Committees
Committees

Figure 2: Administrative Structure

8.

MANAGEMENT TEAM STRUCTURE

The Management Team should consist of an Executive Management
Committee consisting initially of 3-4 individuals. These individuals should
be selected by the Board of Directors based on their ability to contribute tothe operational management of WSSI. The Chair of the Executive
Management Committee should be an Ex-Officio member of the Board.
Other members of the Executive Management Committee may serve on the
Board if elected.

Report of WSSI Futures Committee

23

December 2003, Bangkok

It is anticipated that the Management Team will also have a number ofProject Implementation Teams whose members represent a mixture ofsenior and more junior individuals. In addition, Leadership Training Fellows
and/or Interns may become members of the Management Team. There may
also be volunteer and paid support staff as the opportunity and need arises.
The Management Team may be allowed to maintain bank accounts
separate from the corporate accounts in Singapore at the discretion of theBoard. Additionally, subsidiary not-for-profit organizations may beestablished in other countries to facilitate the raising of funds in thosecountries.
The Management Team structure is shown in Figure 3.

Executive Management
Committee

Project
Teams

Interns andFellows

Staff(Future)Figure 3: Management Team Structure
9.

RELATIONSHIP OF WSSI TO RELATED ORGANIZATIONS
AND ACTIVITIESThe Committee examined the relationship between WSSI and anumber of other organizations. It was concluded that there were somesimilarities between these organizations but that there was insufficient
overlap to justify any talk of mergers at this time. WSSI desires to fulfill arole that is complementary and non-competing with that of otherorganizations. A brief summary of some of the relevant organizations andactivities follows.
GHI: GHI has a similar Mission Statement, but has a somewhat
different focus and style of operation. It is believed that a synergistic
relationship currently exists between GHI and WSSI.
EMI: EMI has a focus on large urban cities which is quite different
from that of WSSI. EMI also has a different methodology forachieving its Mission. Continued cooperation between EMI and WSSI
would me mutually beneficial
EERI World Housing Project: The World Housing Project has asimilar geographic reach to that of WSSI, but rather different focus ofactivity. The interactive web site developed by the World Housing

24

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Project is a potentially useful tool to accomplish the mission of WSSI.
Future collaboration between WSSI and the housing project is adistinct possibility.
10.

POSSIBLE SOURCES OF REVENUEThe Committee discussed possible sources of revenue that might beconsidered by the Board and the Management Team. These include but are
not limited to:Philanthropy
GrantsWorkshops that draw upon the expertise of affiliates
Special Courses
International Journal for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Developing
Countries
Revenue Sources (Continued)
International Conferences
Monograms or similar marketable documents
Sale of Seismic Safety Logo “gear” (tee shirts and other wearing
apparel) at important events such as the WCEE. Example logo:“Earthquakes are inevitable but disasters can be avoided”
It is hoped these and other possible sources of revenue will be discussed
further by the entire Board.

Prof. W. Iwan andProf. K. Meguro

Report of WSSI Futures Committee

25

December 2003, Bangkok

Glimpses from the Workshop…

Dr. R. Shaw from Japanand Mr. A. M. Dixit
from Nepal

Mr. S. Ohya fromJapan, Member,
WSSI Board of
Directors with
Dr. P. Warnitchaifrom AIT,
ThailandDr. S. Herath with
Mr. M. Watanabefrom Japan

26

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

TEN YEARS WITH
THE WORLD SEISMIC SAFETY INITIATIVE
T. KATAYAMA
Director General
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
Tsukuba, Japan

1.

INTRODUCTIONIn December 2002, I attended the International Workshop on
Community-Based Disaster Management which was held in Manesar, near
New Delhi, India, and then I participated in the International workshop on
Professional Issues for Earthquake Safety of the Built Environment, held in
Mumbai. Following these workshops in India, we held the sixteenth Boardof Directors Meeting of the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) which
was held in Singapore and attended by thirteen directors from sevencountries. Attendance was extremely good considering that the total numberof directors is fifteen.
If I had not been involved in the establishment of WSSI ten years ago,
I would not have participated in any of these meetings. WSSI has changed
my interest in the field of earthquake engineering, and my attitude toearthquake disaster mitigation throughout the world, especially indeveloping countries. It goes back to the summer of 1984, to the eighth
World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (WCEE) held in San
Francisco.

2.

THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR EARTHQUAKEENGINEERING
AND
THE
UNITEDNATIONSINTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTERREDUCTION

The International Association for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) is a
nonaffiliated academic organization active in the field of earthquake
engineering. The objective of the association is to promote international
cooperation among scientists, engineers, and other professionals in the
broad field of earthquake engineering through the interchange of knowledge,
ideas, results of research, and practical experience.
The IAEE holds it’s WCEE every four years. It was during the eighth
WCEE in San Francisco in 1984 that Frank Press addressed the participantsof the conference and proposed the establishment of an international decadeof hazard reduction in which all countries would join forces to reduce theconsequences of natural disasters. He emphasized that there would be no5

December 2003, Bangkok

better way to start the new millennium than with a world which was betterorganized to reduce suffering from natural disasters.
The IAEE and the conference participants enthusiastically endorsed
the idea and recommended prompt action for implementation. I never
expected at that time that I would be personally involved in this "wonderful
but penniless" project. The proposal gained the attention of academic
institutions and associations worldwide. In December 1987, only three years
after Press's original proposal, a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)
Resolution declared the 1990s as the "International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)" to promote internationally-coordinatedefforts to reduce material losses and social and economic disruption caused
by natural disasters, especially in developing countries.
When the ninth WCEE was held in Japan in 1988, we knew that we
had to do something to support the IDNDR. But we did not know what that"something" was, and the IAEE did not show any definite strategy towards
the IDNDR. During this conference, I was appointed secretary-general of
the IAEE. In October 1991, I organized a small meeting in Tokyo to discuss
what we could and should do as earthquake engineers to contribute to the
IDNDR. However, the meeting turned out to be an occasion for a harsh selfexamination for the IAEE. The meeting recommended that IAEE shouldmake structural changes that would facilitate its ability to promote theearthquake engineering programme for IDNDR, and that IAEE should
prepare a working paper on its role in the decade.
The tenth WCEE was held in Madrid in July 1992. During the Madrid
conference, everybody knew that unless a special initiative was establishedwith the capacity to gather people and funds, the possibility for IAEE tohave a significant impact on the IDNDR was remote. The IAEE decided tolaunch the "World Seismic Safety Initiative" as a new undertaking in
support of the IDNDR with the goals of disseminating state-of-the-art
earthquake engineering information throughout the world, to incorporate
experience and research findings into recommended practices and codes inearthquake-prone countries, and to advance engineering knowledge throughproblem-focused research.
The IAEE executive committee approved the establishment of the
WSSI, and with T. Paulay as IAEE President, officially appointed aneleven-member Board of Directors shortly thereafter.
I thought this was the last chance for IAEE to contribute to the
IDNDR. The WSSI needed to take action because disasters respect actions,
not words.

6

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.

THE 1993 BANGKOK WORKSHOPIn January 1993, a meeting of the Scientific and Technical Committee(STC) of the IDNDR was held in New Delhi, India. Haresh Shah and I
attended this meeting and proposed the WSSI as a new IDNDR project. I
vividly remember that one of the committee members commented that theyshould postpone the approval of our proposal until we could show more
concrete activities together with a solid financial base. Eventually, the WSSI
was approved as an international and regional IDNDR project, but we haveto admit that even today lack of funds is the most serious problem facing
WSSI activities.
Immediately following the STC meeting in India., the WSSI held aworkshop entitled, "Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the AsiaPacific Region'' in early February 1993 in Bangkok, as the first initiative of
the WSSI.
The Asia-Pacific Region, historically, has sustained extensive
economic and human losses from earthquakes. The region, in recent decades,
has been undergoing major urbanization and economic development. It wasthought most appropriate that the WSSI should compile a list of earthquake
mitigation policies and plans in place in the countries of the region.
The beginning is always the most important part of the work. This firstmodest but definitive step by the WSSI turned out to be a great successbeyond all our expectations. We felt strongly that the WSSI was not going
to be just another paper organization, and that we could make a dent inmanaging earthquake risks in developing countries.
We invited about thirty participants from nineteen countries to a golfclub in a suburb of Bangkok. There were participants from such nations as
Bangladesh, Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, andViet Nam, whose names had rarely been heard in the international
earthquake engineering community. They were waiting to be addressed to
do something, although they had not participated in any international
meetings of earthquake disaster mitigation before. Undisturbed by the noisefrom Bangkok, all of us freely and sincerely discussed the dilemma wefaced. The challenge was to find the right combination of actions that would
mitigate the earthquake risks through an integrated strategy, consistent withthe available resources of these countries and aspirations of their citizens.
Participants commented on how the available knowledge was used or
not used in developing earthquake disaster mitigation strategies in theirhome countries. They requested the WSSI to help raise public andgovernment awareness of earthquake risks in the decision-making sector, inparticular. Towards this objective, the WSSK recognized the importance ofholding high level meetings to be attended by government officials, business

Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety Initiative7

December 2003, Bangkok

leaders, people from social and cultural institutions, as well as the mass
media.
The greatest gain from the Bangkok Workshop was the feeling ofpartnership cultivated among all the participants from developed anddeveloping countries in the field of earthquake disaster science. Whenever
we face hardship in managing the WSSI, we remember the Bangkok
Workshop and the colleagues who had the common goal to mitigate theimpacts of earthquake disasters.
4.

HIGH-LEVEL MEETINGS

We have so far held more than ten high-level meetings (HLMs) ineight cities, mostly, but not all, in Asia: Colombo, Dhaka, Hanoi, Kampala(Uganda), Kathmandu, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and Yangon. Convening
HLMs is one of the most important programmes of the WSSI. HLMs are
long-range educational projects, which do not expect short-term outcomes.
The President of Uganda attended the HLM held in Kampala,
Uganda’s capital, in December 1997, and delivered a keynote speech. Morethan 300 participants attended the plenary session. He thanked the WSSI forchoosing Uganda as a venue for the eighth HLM and showed great interestin making Uganda a geographic focus for spreading the message ofawareness and preparedness in Sub-Saharan Africa. He promised the central
government’s commitment to provide increased resources.
In spite of all the efforts made during the IDNDR, very little attention
had been paid to the needs and aspirations of Sub-Saharan Africa countries.
No one had attended any regional or international conferences on
earthquake engineering or seismology from this part of the world. The
countries located along the Great African Rift Valley had been left out of
the world earthquake community.
The HLM was managed by local people. The local host organizationsin Uganda were a university, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and theMinistry of Labour and Social Welfare. The local hosts prepared the venue
and invited local participants which included the media, the diplomatic
corps, the Red Cross of Uganda, leading civic and business leaders,
representative from the academic and scientific communities, and local
practicing engineers. Three WSSI directors and one resource person
represented the WSSI who, as usual, traveled and attended the HLM at theirown expense.
It clearly indicated once more that HLMs are always a success when
there is efficient preparation by the local people. It is also critical to havestrong personal ties between the local host and the WSSI.

8

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

I remember the Myanmar HLM, planned in 1996 which was not a
success. A participant from Myanmar to the Bangkok Workshop asked us tohold a HLM in Yangon while we were in Bangkok in 1993. Myanmar was
not an easy country to visit in those days. We could not reach the person
concerned on the phone. Answers to our faxes were hard to access and it
was impossible to adequately prepare the meeting. But we were optimistic,
because we had successfully held six HLMs by then. We thought that things
would go well once we were in the country. We adopted a courageous
approach. A timid person is frightened before a danger, a coward during thedanger, but a courageous person afterwards.
We arrived in the country, however, to find nothing had been prepared
for the HLM and there were no individuals with whom to talk. We visited,
one by one, a university, the national railway company, and several otherdisaster-related organizations. Nobody knew about the WSSI or showed any
interest in earthquake-disaster mitigation in Myanmar. I realized that wewere confusing action with haste. But when we left the country, we werestill feeling optimistic, because our friend from the Bangkok workshop
came to see us in the hotel on the morning of our departure to tell us that thenext time would be different.
And the “next” time came soon. During our first visit in 1996 to
Myanmar, we found that there were only a few seismologists andearthquake engineers in the country, and that there was no strong-motion
seismometer. The OYO Corporation, a geotechnical consulting company inJapan, whose president happened to be a WSSI director, decided to donate
several strong-motion seismometers to Myanmar to establish a modest
seismometer network. The company invited two scientists to Japan to teachthem how to handle the instruments. As a result of our continued efforts, in
1999, we received an official invitation to hold an HLM and a special
lecture meeting there. Now, there are ten strong-motion seismometers in
Myanmar, and WSSI is preparing a follow-up meeting in Yangon, thecapital, in February 2003.

5.

THE WSSL’S HLM POLICYWhen we held the twelfth WSSI Board of Director’s Meeting in
Singapore in December 1999, the IDNDR was reaching its finale. We
decided however to continue the activities within the WSSI beyond 2000,
and therefore adopted an official policy of holding HLMs based on pastexperience. It was thought necessary for the WSSI to define moreobjectively the roles of the HLMs for future reference. This was especially
important because our resources are extremely limited.
The objectives to be achieved by HLM’s were therefore summarized
as follows:• To trigger local high-level efforts;• To build on, and encourage, local resource mobilization;

Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety Initiative9

December 2003, Bangkok

•
•
•
•
•
•

To sensitize people - professionals, administrators, and politicians;
To help identify and prioritize local actions;
To assist in developing local sustainability through local efforts;
To assist in adding credibility to local efforts;
To assist in local efforts for fund-raising activities; andTo assist in national networking.

Priority should be given to those countries where situations are
dominated by a combination of high seismic risk and low preparedness.
More emphasis should be placed on the latter, and attention should also begiven to countries with medium/low seismic risk but low preparedness. In
order that precious time, energy and money not be wasted, it may benecessary to seek dialogues between local people and the WSSI before an
HLM is planned.
HLMs have been held on a voluntary basis in the past. However, thiskind of activity cannot be continued without stable funding. Discussions arealways made on possible practical solutions such as: (a) development aid
offered by developed countries - in this case, holding an HLM can be
included as part of a larger project supported by such aid organizations; (b)funds generated by holding a money-generating workshop in a place close
to where the HLM is held; and (c) sales of a book or a monograph on
introductory seismology and earthquake engineering written or compiled by
WSSI directors or resource persons.
We have held several fee-paying lectures but without much success.
The money generated was generally too little for the efforts needed toprepare such meetings. Although the WSSI was incorporated in Singapore
in May 1995 as a nonprofit public benefit company for reasons of liability,
fund-raising, and tax status, we are enjoying little benefit, at the moment.
We estimate that we need a minimum of US$20,000 a year to run theorganization in even the most modest manner. For the time being, thisamount is shared between Japan and the US by the personal efforts ofdirectors. After all, we have to at least partially approve the judgment of the
IDNDR STC member who commented on the need for a solid financial basefor the WSSI during its meeting in India, in 1993.
Given the nature of a typical HLM, it should not be repeated in thesame country. It should be understood that it usually takes time to achieve
the goals set by the WSSI, and it would be inappropriate to expect instantimprovement following an HLM. It may be necessary for us to maintain adialogue in order to encourage further development, locally. The WSSI may
help developing countries establish courses in earthquake engineering anddisaster management, and to further increase the local awareness inearthquake disaster mitigation.

10

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

6.

INTERDISCIPLINARY OBSERVATIONS ON THE 2001 BHUJ
EARTHQUAKE IN GUJARAT, INDIA

Soon after the Bhuj Earthquake hit the Kuch region of Gujarat State inIndia, at 8:46 am on 26 January 2001, Haresh Shah, Chairman of the WSSI
Board of Directors, contacted four of the board members including myself
who happened to be attending a workshop in Japan. Shah asked us what the
WSSI could possibly do to best provide the international community with anadditional opportunity to learn from this disaster. All of us knew that, likemany earthquakes in recent times, numerous academic, professional, andhumanitarian organizations would send teams of experts to study and learn
from this unfortunate event. As a result, many reports would be publishedwhich would focus individually on scientific, technical, economic, andsocial issues.
We, the four board members, deliberated intensely on the matter, andcame up with the idea of assembling a unique reconnaissance team fromdeveloped and developing countries around the world with different
interests and different professional backgrounds. We conveyed this plan toShah, who in turn recruited the participation and support of the Earthquakes
in Megacities Initiative (EMI) through its Chairman, Fouad Bendimerad.
This was, to our knowledge, the first experiment to look at theearthquake consequences as a learning process for many individuals fromdeveloping countries. Without such an experiment, many of the teammembers might not get the opportunity to be on site, and to see the technical,
economic, scientific, social, and political forces that contributed to thewidespread death and destruction. However, implementing the idea was notan easy task. It required huge efforts by Shah before a team of twenty-one
members from thirteen countries was sent on 25 February 2001 to the site to
conduct an eight-day reconnaissance trip visiting eleven cities, towns, andvillages in the region.
The mission, jointly supported by the WSSI and the EMI, culminatedin a unique report beginning with the following sentences:
It is the dawn of the 5lst Republic Day of India, January 26, 2001. Some 400
students with their teachers are marching toward the town hall of Anjar toparticipate in the flag hoisting ceremony in observance of the India,
Republic Day. There is slight chill in the air on a clear and sunny morning,quite usual during the winter days. The students, future leaders of republic
India, are marching through very narrow streets-perhaps less than 10-ft
wide-of downtown Anjar, singing popular patriotic songs. The narrow
streets are surrounded by 2-story stone/masonry buildings. Suddenly, theearth beneath them snaps, first making a loud noise as if a bomb went off,followed by violent ground shaking that lasts for over a minute. A cloud of
dust arises making it difficult to see what has happened. When dust clears,
the surrounding buildings are no more standing. The violent shaking of theearth has leveled them burying under its rubble the marching students andteachers, and some inhabitants of the buildings that have collapsed. Joyful

Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety Initiative11

December 2003, Bangkok

singing turns into painful screams for help. Very few students and teachers
escape injury or death; most of them perished, leaving their parents andloved ones behind. It is a sight that Anjar would not forget (for) a very, very
long time to come.2
The cover of the report shows a photograph of writing on a wall in Anjar
which says, “400 rallying children gone. God Bless.3
We believe that the experiment provided a dynamic and ’’live”
learning experience for many of the members of the team. Only throughsuch an effort can we increase the awareness of countries about what are themain engines of death and destruction due to earthquake events. The WSSI
hopes that this awareness-raising experience will provide some countries
represented in the team motivation to address the problem of earthquake risk
reduction, and will give them the perspective and value of pre-disasterplanning for mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.
We also believe that the make-up of the team, the purpose of the trip,
and the unique and refreshing way of learning from a disaster should
become the standard for future efforts to be formulated. Although theexperiment was a resounding success, I would like to add that it required ahuge amount of time and energy on a voluntary basis by some of the WSSI
directors and WSSI-related resource persons.

7.

BEYOND HLMS AND WORKSHOPS -THE WSSI IN ITSSECOND DECADE

According to the review made by the IAEE’s Ad Hoc Committee on the
WSSI:
A wide gap exists between the recommendations of experts expressedat the high-level meetings and the actual implementation of needed
political and economic measures aimed at reducing seismic risk.
The existence of this gap must be recognized when trying to assess the
expected benefits of the WSSI program both in the immediate future
and under a long-term perspective.4
We have always considered what the WSSI can do beyond HLMs
and workshops.
The problem is indeed difficult. We have so far concentrated on
establishing small, realistic, and well-focused projects.
We are very pleased that our efforts are registering concrete
achievements in many parts of the world. Countries such as Malaysia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand, and Uganda haveestablished national organizations of earthquake engineering, and they havebeen approved as IAEE member countries.

12

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

The impact of the WSSl activities on Nepal is something of which weare proud. To evaluate the effectiveness and impact of IDNDR-related
WSSI programmes towards earthquake disaster mitigation, we held thesecond Bangkok Workshop in 1999. We asked participants to self-evaluate
the achievements in their countries between 1993 and 1999 by identifying
their earthquake disaster preparedness capacity from 0 (no capacity) to 10(perfection). The answer from a Nepalese representative was 1 in 1993 and3 in 1999, giving a threefold improvement within six years. Awareness forearthquake preparedness has been enhanced greatly, and an international
project to strengthen school buildings has been carried out successfully.
Efforts by the local people attracted the attention of donor countries andinternational organizations, and they supported several projects for earthquake disaster mitigation in Nepal.
Several years ago, the Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion
ObservationSystems (COSMOS) in the US started to replace its old
instruments with newer ones. The seismometers being replaced are often ingood working order, but no longer meet the requirements of the COSMOS.
Towards extending the useful life of these instruments, the WSSI and
COSMOS have initiated a programme to facilitate their redistribution.
The current board of fifteen international directors5 has ultimate
responsibility for all WSSI activities. Although we do not feel the simple
parent-child relationship between IAEE and the WSSI, we maintain theoriginal close relationship by having Luis Esteva, IAEE President, as a
WSSI director. In addition to this, two of the current directors are a pastpresident and a past secretary-general of IAEE.
As a senior member of the WSSI board of directors, I often think that
we might have been a little too complacent about what we have done in
WSSI. However, an undertaking like the WSSI will never be maintained
without some complacency and selfishness of the people involved.
The activities of the WSSI have now entered their second decade. The
leadership of Haresh Shah during the first ten years has contributed
tremendously to what WSSI has become. There is no doubt that WSSI owes
much to his personal visibility in the international community of earthquake
engineering. He has, however, stepped down from the Chair of the WSSI
Board of Directors, and I succeeded him as of January 2003. The continued
support of interested parties in our future activities is greatly appreciated.

NOTES
1.

2.

The eleven original board members were: Hiroyuki Aoyamn, Teddy Boen,
Wilfred D. Iwan, Tsuneo Katayama (Cochair), Roman Kintanar, Gunter
Klein, Roberto Meli, Rudolfo Saragoni, Haresh C. Shah (Cochair), Charles
Thiel, Jr., and Kenro Toki.
World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI)/Earthquake and Megacities Initiative

Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety Initiative

13

December 2003, Bangkok

3.
4.
5.

6.

(EMI). "Mission Report" (2001).
Ibid.
International Association for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) Ad Hoc
Committee on the WSSI, "Review" (1997).
Directors of WSSI as 1 January 2003 are: Teddy Boen, Roger D. Borcherdt,
Sheldon Cherry, Weimin Dong, Luis Esteva, Tore Haalvaldsen, Wilfred D.
Iwan, Sudhir K. Jain, Tsuneo Katayama (chair), Mark Klyachko, Kimiro
Meguro, Satoru Ohya, Tso-Chien Pan, Haresh C. Shah and Brian E. Tucker.
The words of the American poet, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow come tomind, "Most people would succeed in small things if they were not troubled
with great ambitions."

Footnote:
This article is taken from “Regional Development Dialogues” (Vol 24, No. 1
Spring 2003, pp.107-114) with an official permission of the United Nations Center
for Regional Development (UNCRD).

14

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

THE LAST MILE-EARTHQUAKE RISKMITIGATION ASSISTANCE IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIESHARESH C. SHAH
Obayashi Professor of Engineering Emeritus
Stanford University
USA
1.

PREFACEOver the past three to four decades, we have seen many joint programs
between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter inmanaging their earthquake risks. These programs span the whole spectrumof disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social scienceand economy. Many of these programs have been effective in raisingawareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction, and in
spawning an “industry” of disaster management in many of the developing
countries. These industries include non-profit organizations, NGOs, forprofit organizations, and in general a sleuth of opportunities forentrepreneurial individuals from urban regions of developing countries.
As these evolving opportunities unfold, we have seen death anddestruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries,
strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programs
were developed are not very effective, at least in the short run. We have seen
deaths, injuries, social trauma, economic disruptions, and generalinterruption of life continue unabated. So it is natural to ask why is thishappening. Are the assistance programs reaching the right people? May be
we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in thesecountries but we have not allowed enough time for our good actions to takeeffect. May be we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions
for all the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate theirearthquake risks. The question may be whether we are reaching people who
represent the last mile. So in this brief paper, I am not saying that the work
many organizations have done over the past few decades in mitigating
earthquake risk in developing countries is not appropriate. What I am
questioning is whether we have covered that last mile, whether we havereached all the right people, whether we have used the available resources indoing all that we can and should do.
In telecommunication industry, they define the most crucial link
between available technology of narrow and broadband communication andthe use of that technology by a typical homeowner as the problem of “LastMile”. The reasoning being that unless the last connection between the
homeowner and the most sophisticated available technology is not there, all
the available technology cannot be effective for the vast market of
consumers. The problem of last mile has been a challenge in that industry

15

December 2003, Bangkok

for many years and still continues to be the crucial link. Giants oftelecommunication industries are still battling for the control of the last mile.
Coming back to our focus of risk mitigation in developing countries, it
seems to me that we have not done all that we could do in making theconnection between those who are trying to help and those who need help,
the problem of Last Mile. In this short paper, I will try to articulate what I
think is a problem at hand. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Chi
Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria, and on and on. This paper is written to generate
discussions, self analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right andwhat we are not doing right, and hopefully, try to make a proper connection
between the last mile and all the programs we (community of organizations
around the world working towards earthquake risk mitigation) have beenworking on so diligently and hopefully for the past few decades.

2.

SOME OBSERVATIONSIn the context of earthquake risk mitigation in a developing country
and the “Last Mile”, I would say that the following actions affect and impact
the citizens who will experience the next catastrophic earthquake.
1. Earthquake codes and their strict implementation in urban
and rural communities for engineered structures.
2. “How to” type of instructions to build non-engineered andrural structures.
3. Helping the village or community build safer homes, safer
schools, safer hospitals, and safer community infrastructures.
4. Awareness at the individual, family, and community level ofearthquakes and what to do before, during, and immediately
after an earthquake.
5. Social and political preparedness for the next catastrophic
event at all levels of private and public enterprises.
I am sure there are many such actions that could impact a community
or region due to future events that I have not included. That could be adifficult task and for the purpose of this paper, it is not crucial to be allinclusive. The point at this time is to understand the context of the Last
Mile. In that context, it is that action or actions, which will actually help
a community, reduce (or mitigate) its earthquake risk.
Now, let us look at our own personal experiences over the past few
decades. Personally, I have been involved in many professional, nongovernmental, philanthropic, academic and similar organizations. Many ofthese organizations have worked internationally with great passion anddedication to help reduce the problem of earthquake risk in many
developing countries around the globe. Many of these efforts have resulted
in visible improvements in earthquake risk profiles of communities indeveloping nations. These efforts have involved meetings, conferences,
workshops, seminars, courses, public lectures, and just networking. All these16

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

efforts and means to our end are fine and laudable. However, how many ofthese efforts pass the test of linking with the last mile. Many of these efforts
are between people like us the academics, senior governmental officials, andusually the most educated and “aware” people. How many times have weseen that the connection between “us” and the last mile is not complete? It
often discontinues after a meeting or a workshop or a conference isconducted. How often a $100,000 (as an example) grant to help reduce
earthquake risk in a specific developing region of the world ends up in
spending 90% of that in conducting a workshop or a conference and hardly
anything remaining for the last mile? In many developed countries, I haveoften seen hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent in developing a
program, in travel, in discussion meetings, in workshops, etc. and very little
left for the final beneficiary who is supposed to be helped by us. How will
the risk profile and the risk culture ever change in developing countries
unless we are connected all the way up to and including the last mile?
As Koffie Annan, Secretary General of United Nations said in 1999,“Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention
have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future. Moreover,the benefits are not tangible; they are the disasters that did not happen”.
With the current mode of operation of many organizations around theworld who are “assisting” developing nations deal with their earthquake risk
mitigation efforts, the score card of how well they are doing will not comeuntil a future date (could be decades). It is quite possible that this future
score card will look good. In the interim, individuals and organizations will
feel (or will claim) a sense of success at their programs and ways ofspending resources. As they say, only time will tell. Unfortunately, this
delay in getting their score card will result in time and resources spent, may
be making the right connections for the first hundreds of miles and notreaching the last mile, and most important, in lost opportunities.

3.

ISSUES RELATED TO THE LAST MILE

It is generally accepted by many who have worked towards earthquake
risk reduction in developing countries that non-scientific and non-technicalissues play a major role in implementing known risk reduction strategies.
Let us look at some of these issues.
 Perception of risk is an important part. Without the society’s
understanding of the type and level of risk, it is very difficult
if not impossible to develop and implement strategies forearthquake risk reduction. Many developing societies live
their daily lives under varieties of risk. Unless it is clear tothem as to how earthquake risk fits into their hierarchy ofrisk, it is very hard for them to either “get excited” or dosomething about that risk. So the first and foremost
requirement for a developing society to implement neededrisk reduction strategies is to understand the earthquake risk

The Last Mile-Earthquake Risk Mitigation Assistance in Developing Countries

17

December 2003, Bangkok

and how it relates to other man made or natural risks. In my
experience, many developing societies have not properly
understood earthquake risk. The experts in these countries
have done relatively poor job in raising the awareness of thecitizenry about the problem and possible solutions. Most
experts in those countries have not taken special care intraveling the last mile.
 In a society with many competing demands on available
resources, it is not clear to many as to how one can balance
the risk/reward equation. What level of resources need to be
spent to achieve an acceptable level of safety is a complex
problem. Even in industrialized countries, the answer to sucha complex question is not obvious. So in an economicallydeveloping country, it is even more difficult to justify thetime and resources needed for earthquake risk reduction.
 There is a wide spread perception that to do anything about
mitigating earthquake risk, the immediate or short-term costis enormous. The technical community has mainly
propagated this perception. The message has been thatearthquake resistant structures require specialized knowledge
and that to build earthquake resistant structures or to upgrade
existing structures to some acceptable level of performance,
the cost is not trivial. This may be true but such scaler
messages impact on the ability of a community to do noncapital intensive actions such as awareness drive, self-help
solutions, community based retrofitting, financial risk
management options, disaster management plans, nonstructural mitigation, etc.
 There is relatively little communication between researchers,
academics, and few well-known professionals and the rest of
the country, which is at risk. The few “world class”
individuals in the country have not been able to make thecitizens, the engineering community, the governmentalorganizations, and the regulators aware about the type andlevel of risk and what measures would buy maximum benefit
at minimum cost. This has created an awareness vacuum.
Without “bottoms up” interest in implementing risk
management strategies, it is very difficult to make any
headway towards earthquake risk reduction.
 The group of professionals such as architects, structural
engineers, contractors, government inspectors, etc. have very
little professional accountability for poor performance ofstructures. Even in countries where good building codes exist,
there is very little effort to implement and enforce thosecodes. As a result, we have seen great death and destruction
in many recent earthquakes. Ability to practice these
professions is not based on licensing or accountability checks.
 In developing countries, usually an organizational
infrastructure that allows a good working partnership
between academics, engineering practitioners, government

18

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

regulators, financial institutions, and social activists does notexist. Thus, the time between the generation of knowledge
and its implementation on the ground is excruciatingly long.
These and many such reasons can be cited for a lack of progress inmany countries. One of the most frustrating observations that I have made isthat there are groups of countries where there is knowledge, there areresources, and there is awareness. Still, there is very little hope in terms of
how a major urban center in India or China or Turkey will perform in a
future earthquake. What can we do in those countries to make a difference?
Is the problem of connecting the last mile making it difficult to achieve
desired outcomes? For too long, individuals in some of those countries havebeen “preaching” to their own kind. And, perhaps, it could be said that
foreign “experts” have been preaching to local experts and the resulting
information exchange terminates at that level. It is time to change the way
risk mitigation and risk management has been approached in these countries.
It is important to understand the last mile that will make all the worthwhile
efforts connect all the way from articulation of problems to possible
solutions and actions.

4.

CONCLUDING REMARKSThe main theme of this paper is whether we are reaching all the rightpeople and are developing all the right strategies for reducing earthquake
risk in developing societies. This simple question is put in the context of the“Last Mile”. The general concern that is expressed is in terms of therelative expenditure of resources between the last mile and all the previous
miles. By their very nature, it seems that considerable resources are spent inarticulating the problems, in studying the nature of the problems, and incommunicating between the like-minded solution providers. As a result
relatively very little is left over or available to connect between all the miles
that are traveled and the last mile. If in fact there is some merit in the central
theme of this paper, it may be time for all of us to question our assumptions
and our actions and make needed modifications so that there is a robust
connection to the last mile.

Prof. H. C. Shahfrom USA,
Member, WSSI
Board of Directors

The Last Mile-Earthquake Risk Mitigation Assistance in Developing Countries

19

December 2003, Bangkok

Moments from the Workshop …

Prof. W. Iwan from USA
and Prof. T. Haavaldsen
from Norway, Members,
WSSI Board of Directors

Prof. S. Cherry from
Canada, Ex-President, IAEE
and Prof. H.C. Shah from
USA, Member, WSSI Boardof Directors

Mr. Y. Egawa,Ms. Tsunozaki and
Mr. T. Tanaka
from Japan

20

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

STATUS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKMITIGATION IN BANGLADESH
M. A. ANSARY
Department of Civil Engineering, BUET
Bangladesh

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a brief summary of the activities and research
work undertaken in the field of earthquake engineering for the last five
years. Highlights of completed and current BUET research activities arealso briefly discussed. Currently, BUET, Bangladesh Earthquake Society,government and some non-government organizations, a few other public
universities of Bangladesh and media are playing a major role inearthquake risk mitigation efforts. Bangladesh still has a long way to go toachieve a satisfactory level of earthquake disaster mitigation. Some generalrecommendations are provided to meet these objectives. A summary ofactions undertaken as per the recommendations of previous WSSI
workshops and some future actions to be carried out are also proposed.
For the last few years, different organizations in Bangladeshorganized several small and large workshops and made numerous
recommendations without making any considerable impact on the society.
With the help of several field surveys carried out in different communities of
Dhaka and other four major cities of Bangladesh the author found out that
although community leaders have some knowledge of earthquake, they arestill unaware about the catastrophic effect of an earthquake on theircommunities. Almost all those densely populated communities have grownhaphazardly with narrow alleyways, fraught with old and new nonengineered vulnerable structures, unplanned road networks. The
communities have very little earthquake and fire preparedness. So to walk‘the last mile’, the author requests WSSI to provide assistance to BES and
NCEE-BUET to undertake community-based awareness and preparedness
programs.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Bangladesh is susceptible to frequent damaging earthquakes.
Although in the recent past no major earthquake has occurred, but in thepast few hundred years, several large catastrophic earthquakes struck thisarea. So far, all the major recent earthquakes have occurred away frommajor cities, and have affected relatively sparsely populated areas. This has
limited the human casualty and the economic losses. However, the 1993
Killari and 2001 Gujarat earthquakes in India has amply demonstrated that27

December 2003, Bangkok

inappropriate construction technology may lead to high casualty levels evenfor moderate earthquakes (Sinha and Goyal, 1994).
In 1897, an earthquake of magnitude 8.7 (recently modified byAmbraseys (2000) to be 8.0) caused serious damages to buildings in thenortheastern part of India (including Bangladesh) and 1542 people were
killed. Recently, Bilham et al. (2001) pointed out that there is highpossibility that a huge earthquake will occur around the Himalayan region
based on the difference between energy accumulation in this region andhistorical earthquake occurrence. The population increase around this region
is at least 50 times than the population of 1897 and cities like Dhaka,
Kathmandu, Guwahati have population exceeding several millions. It is a
cause for great concern that the next great earthquake may occur in thisregion at any time.
A strong earthquake affecting major urban centers like Dhaka,
Chittagong, Sylhet may result in damage and destruction of massive
proportions and may have very severe long-term consequences for the entire
country. After the 1971 independence, most major urban centers of
Bangladesh have grown tremendously due to unabated migration from thesmaller towns and rural areas. As a result, the cities have developed inhaphazard fashion with little consideration for proper town-planning norms.
There is, consequently, a need to be prepared against all possible natural andman-made disasters that are likely to occur in Bangladesh. For this purpose,
it is essential to have realistic understanding of the consequences of likely
damage in major cities due to different disasters. This will permit rational
planning of mitigation efforts in order to minimise effects of these disasters.
The extent of damage to structures and casualty level due to an
earthquake in the future can be reduced by the introduction of suitable
mitigation measures. These mitigation measures can be categorized as
structural and/or non-structural. The structural measures are those that
directly influence the performance of building stock through strengtheningof code provisions and the prevalent construction practice. Incorporating theappropriate structural mitigation measures can reduce the vulnerability of
any building type. The non-structural mitigation measures include
improvement in the state of awareness and preparedness before a disaster,land-use control and other government policies, and the infrastructure
related to response following a disaster. The non-structural measures help toreduce the severity of casualty levels following an earthquake. In order toreduce the consequences of a major earthquake in the cities of Bangladesh,
it is necessary that appropriate structural as well as non-structural measures
be undertaken.

2.

ACTIVITIES FOR THE LAST FIVE YEAR

The first and second WSSI workshops were held in Bangkok in 1993
and 1999, respectively. Besides the workshops, WSSI held ten high-level

28

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

meetings (HLMs) in eight cities (Katayama, 2003). The only HLM by WSSI
was held at Bangladesh in 1994. But after that HLM, there were no WSSI
activities in Bangladesh. In 2001, WSSI sponsored the author to participate
in an interdisciplinary reconnaissance team from developed and developing
countries around the world to visit the earthquake affected Gujarat state. It
was an unique experience for the author to visit and to get “real life”
learning experience from an earthquake devastated region in the presence ofexperienced people of different interests and professional background. This
exposure motivated the author to work in the field of earthquake risk
reduction.
The author was also lucky to be trained in earthquake engineering
under the guidance of Prof. Katayama, University of Tokyo. After returning
to Bangladesh in 1996, the author together with a BUET team comprising ofProf. Choudhury and Dr. Al-Hussaini submitted a project proposal to the
Jamuna Multi-purpose Bridge Authority to install seismic devices on thebridge (a 4.8 km long RCC deck girder bridge) and the surrounding area.
The Panel of Expert at the 9th Milestone Meeting approved the project on
March 1997. But it took another six years to get approval from GoB andinstall the instruments on the bridge. The author also developed a course on
Earthquake Engineering for postgraduate level at BUET and for the last
seven years the course has been offered at the postgraduate level. In thefollowing paragraphs a brief summary of activities undertaken by different
organizations of Bangladesh to mitigate earthquake disaster are presented.
2.1

Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)

Department of Civil Engineering, BUET offers postgraduate courses
on Earthquake Engineering, Soil Dynamics, Structural Dynamics andVibration Analysis. Until 1996, only two postgraduate thesies linked with
Earthquake Engineering. But after 1996, six more postgraduate theses
related to this field were completed. Currently two students are pursuingtheir Ph.D and four more students are pursuing their Master’s thesis in
Earthquake Engineering field.
Department of Civil Engineering, BUET is working as a consultant to
the 4.8 km long Jamuna Multi-purpose bridge to monitor the seismic
instruments that the faculty members of the Department under theleadership of the author, helped to install in July 2003. In addition to theseismic instrumentation of the bridge, there is a borehole accelerograph at
57 m depth and seven free-field seismic instruments at Bogra, Natore, east
and west end of the bridge, Mymensingh, Gazipur and Dhaka. Figures 1
and 2 show location of the bridge, free field and bridge instrumentation.
In April 2002, BUET put forward a proposal for the establishment of a
National Center for Earthquake Engineering (NCEE) and included it in
BUET’s next five-year plan for implementation. In March 2003, an MOU
was signed between NCEE and ICUS, University of Tokyo. Recently, alinkage is established between Virginia Polytechnic Institute, USA andStatus of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

29

December 2003, Bangkok

NCEE with USAID funding. The author is working as the NCEE project
director for this linkage program.
Under the leadership of the author, several BUET team performed
field surveys after the recent Bangladeshi earthquakes (Ansary et al., 2001,
Ansary et al., 2003). The author also visited earthquake-affected parts ofGujarat state of India as mentioned earlier with GERIT (Mistry et al., 2001)
under the joint sponsorship of EMI-WSSI. The author has also contributed
to two reports on unreinforced masonry and on mud houses to the EERI’s
World Housing Encyclopedia Project.
2.2

Government Agencies

Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) was established with the help of
UNDP and UNICEF in 1993. Although initially it was established to
manage flood and cyclone, after the 1997 earthquakes in Chittagong and
Sylhet region, Bureau started to train different government officials andvolunteers about pre and post-earthquake preparedness and management
techniques. For the last couple of years, Bureau conducted fifty or more
earthquake training workshops in different regions of Bangladesh. In 2002,
it also published a Disaster Management Training Manual. The second partof the manual has a complete chapter on Earthquake Training Module andPublic Awareness Guidelines.
The Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MDMR) is currently
working as the government coordinator for all activities regarding
earthquake. Recently, they asked all the concerned ministries, departments
and armed forces division to submit Contingency Plan regarding earthquake.
The Ministry also compiled a list of available rescue and recovery
equipment available in the country. MDMR is currently taking preparation
to hold a mock drill in the mid week of December 2003. It will be held in
the Dhupkhola field at the old part of Dhaka city, where the current
population density exceeds 70,000 per sq. km.
The second phase (2003-2008) of Program for Enhancement ofEmergency Response (PEER), a USAID funded international project
includes Bangladesh with the existing four other PEER affiliated countries –India, Indonesia, Nepal and Philippines. The program aims to strengthen
and institutionalize capacities in emergency and disaster response of themember countries. An MOU in this regard will soon be signed between
PEER and Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MDMR).
In 2001, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) initiated a
project to establish four broadband seismic stations at Rangpur, Sylhet,
Dhaka and Chittagong cities. The author is a member of the technicalcommittee providing support to purchase and install the seismic stations.
Public Works Department (PWD) is responsible for constructing all
the government buildings of the country. For the last two years, theDepartment arranged several in-house workshops to train their engineers

30

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

about earthquake resistant design. Also the engineers of this organization
have started to use seismic codes in designing buildings.
Bangladesh Armed Forces Division (AFD) played a significant role inall past disaster management in the light of the tasks assigned in the“Standing Order on Disaster, 1999” circulated by MDMR. Recently,
Bangladesh Armed Forces, in consonance with the national initiative,
chalked out a contingency plan for Dhaka city (Rasul, 2003). According to
the AFD’s contingency plan, the city is divided into eight sectors withpredefined tasks after an earthquake. AFD will also activate “Disaster
Management and Relief Monitoring Cell” at Prime Minister’s Office after
an earthquake.
Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) is the oldest organization in
the country involved with the development of seismic zonation maps. The
organization was instrumental in developing the 1972 and 1979 seismic
zonation maps (Choudhury, 1993). But unlike its predecessor the Geological
Survey of India (GSI) under the British rule, it did not initiate any researchin earthquake field. Currently it depends on USGS and GSI for earthquake
source information.
2.3

Bangladesh Earthquake Society

Bangladesh Earthquake Society (BES), a non-government voluntaryorganization was established on April 2002 and was registered on January
2003. The first election of the society was held on August 2003 and a 12
member executive committee (EC) was elected. The EC members consistedof engineers, geologists, NGO activists and government administrators. The
author was elected as the Secretary-General of the Society for 2003-2005
terms.
After the July 2003 Rangamati Earthquake, the author and othermembers of the Society visited the affected earthquake sites and provided
the government with their technical advice. BES also organized two national
level workshops and four monthly seminars. The first workshop was jointly
organized with RAJUK [Capital Development Authority] on August 21,
2003 to train the engineers of Bangladesh about the earthquake resistantdesign. The second workshop was organized together with Disaster
Management Bureau (DMB), Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief
on September 4, 2003 to sum up the findings of 2003 Rangamati Earthquake.
Both the workshops put forward a set of recommendations to be
implemented either by the government or by the NGOs with the help ofdonor agencies. The second workshop was the first of its kind wherearchitects, armed forces personnel, engineers, geologists, NGO activists andgovernment officials presented their papers.
In March 2003, an MOU was signed between BES and ICUS,
University of Tokyo.

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

31

December 2003, Bangkok

2.4

Non-government Organization

CARE-Bangladesh is involved in the disaster related field of
Bangladesh for the last thirty years. But only after the 2001 Gujarat
Earthquake, it focused its attention in earthquake disaster. Some recent
activities of CARE are: Circulation of pamphlets among the general masses
on communities’ role before, during and after an earthquake; developmentof seismic risk scenarios for different cities of Bangladesh; planning tocirculate IAEE’s manual for the seismic design of non-engineered
construction in Bengali; arranging different earthquake sensitization
seminars and workshops in different parts of Bangladesh. The author
collaborated with CARE in these projects.
Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) also arranged a seminar
to discuss their role before, during and after an earthquake in line with
MDMR’s policy in September 2003.
Similarly some NGOs and societies such as ActionAID, CARITAS,
EPRC, FBAST, GJKS, JUUAB, SAFE and SDF organized seminars andworkshops on earthquake risk mitigation in different cities of Bangladesh.
2.5

Other organizations

Bangladesh Insurance Academy (BIA) conducted the first workshop
on catastrophic risk management in 1998. The second workshop on similar
topic was held on November 2003. The author acted as a resource person inboth the workshops.
Recently BRAC University together with ADPC, Bangkok organized
a two-weeks long workshop on Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction in
Cities (EVRC3). The author worked as a resource person at that workshop.
Conscience for Existence, a student organization of BUET under the
direct patronization of the author worked at the community level of one of
the wards of Dhaka city (Ratan et al., 2003). Recently, the group organized
an exhibition to share their experience of the survey carried out in thecommunity level of the old Dhaka.
Department of Civil Engineering, Chittagong University ofEngineering & Technology (CUET) established an Earthquake ResearchCentre in 2001. It started a joint research together with the University of
Macedonia, Skopje. Under the agreement faculty members of CUET are
regularly trained in Skopje.
Geohazards Research Group (GRG) of the Department of Geology of
Dhaka University in cooperation with Lamont-Doherty Earth Laboratory of
the University of Columbia, USA installed a broadband seismometer in
Dhaka (Khan, 2003) and several GPS devices at some places of Bangladesh
recently. The Department also got funding from Ministry of Science &Technology (MOST) to carry out research in the field of earthquake hazard

32

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

assessment for 2003-2004. Recently, Dhaka University administration has
started to assess the vulnerability of their existing buildings and halls toprioritize their retrofitting measures.
Institute of Engineers Bangladesh (IEB) organized several seminars
on earthquakes. Currently it is offering some courses on earthquake resistantdesign together with Engineering Staff College, Bangladesh.
Institute of Diploma Engineers Bangladesh (IDEB) also offered
several courses on earthquake vulnerability and seismic design of structures.
The author also acted as one of the resource persons at those workshops.
Real Estate and Housing Association of Bangladesh (REHAB) also
conducted one seminar after the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake.
Department of Civil Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science &Technology (SUST) and the author is currently working to develop seismic
microzonation map of Sylhet. In addition, building data survey for particular
wards of Sylhet were carried out.
In 2002 UNDP submitted a Comprehensive Disaster Management
Program (CDMP) proposal to the forum of donor agencies. It got donor
communities approval in early 2003. The sub-program 4 (a)-ii of the PCP
contains an urban risk research component on urban earthquakes. The
objective is to facilitate an expansion of mitigating programs throughinitiating studies to obtain an in-depth knowledge about the earthquake
threat and related risks in the urban areas recommending mitigation
measures for selected cities of Bangladesh.
Some buildings were also retrofitted by private and governmentorganizations. But no systematic process to retrofit vulnerable structures
was undertaken by any government organizations.
2.6

Mass media

Mass media such as newspapers and television networks played a vitalrole during the recent 2003 Rangamati Earthquake. They covered andbroadcasted as much information as they could collect from the affectedareas of Barkal, a remote hilly town. The journalists followed the different
expert teams who visited the earthquake-hit areas and published theirfindings in the National Dailies and showed live footage in the TelevisionNews. Currently, newspapers have taken initiative to regularly publish newsof earthquakes and interviews of local earthquake experts and their research
activities, which will certainly enhance public awareness level.

3.

SUMMARY OF BUET RESEARCH

A brief summary of completed and current research works at the
Department of Civil Engineering, BUET are presented.

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

33

December 2003, Bangkok

3.1 Completed research activities
3.1.1 Development of design spectra
In this study an effort was made to develop response spectra fromsimulated earthquakes using different soil parameters (Noor, 1997; Ansary
et al., 2000) as Bangladesh lacks strong ground motion data. Figure 3
presents the developed design spectra for different soil types.
3.1.2 Seismic hazard assessment
Recently Sharfuddin (2001) developed a new earthquake catalogue for
Bangladesh and the surrounding region. Based on this catalogue and using
existing attenuation law, seismic hazard were assessed. Finally an updated
seismic zonation map of Bangladesh was proposed as shown in Figure 4.
This zoning map is based on consistent peak ground acceleration levels witha return period of 200 years.
3.1.3 Soil-structure interaction
Iqbal (1999) studied soil-structure interaction effects of tall buildings
with mat foundation. Ahmad (1998) studied seismic response analysis of
isolated and non-isolated bridges.
Hoque (2002) investigated a soil-structure interaction problem of asimple deck-girder bridge. He studied behavior of an abutment as well as of
the total system of a bridge under dynamic loading.
3.1.4 Magnitude-intensity relationships
Sabri (2001) investigated magnitude-intensity and intensityattenuation relationships for earthquakes in Bangladesh using macroseismic
data. A selected sample of isoseismal maps from 18 events were revised andused for this study. The regression analysis for the whole data set, which
consists of 74 (Ii, Di) pairs corresponding to 18 events, gives the following
mean attenuation expression:
I = 8.378 + 1.283(M ) - 0.0007483(R) - 4.9(logR) ± 0.93P(1)s
where Ms is the recalculated surface wave magnitude, R is the hypocentral
distance that corresponds to the mean epicentral radius Di = (Ri2- ho2)1/2 ofisoseismal Ii in km, and ho is mean focal depth and P has different values
for different probabilities.
3.2 Current research activities
3.2.1 Community-based activities
The author with the help of final year undergraduates and graduate
students of the Department of Civil Engineering of BUET and SUST
undertook field survey in different cities of Bangladesh. The survey datacollected different existing building and infrastructure information ofdifferent wards of the cities (Ansary and Meguro, 2003). Additionally,
students also communicated with the local ward commissioners andinhabitants to find out their earthquake related knowledge and preparedness

34

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

level. Figure 5 presents some field-level activities of the students in Ward
64, Dhaka City.
3.2.2 Seismic microzonation
A crucial step towards preparedness for future seismic events andmitigation of seismic risk involves a microzonation study of a city. Also
local site conditions and local site effects are the most important factors
when an earthquake strikes a human settlement. Keeping this in mind,
seismic microzonation maps for Dhaka (Ansary, 2003) and other major
cities of Bangladesh are being prepared. For this purpose microtremor
observation as well as one-dimensional numerical simulation (SHAKE) has
been performed to complement the experimental results. Figure 6 presentssite amplification and liquefaction potential maps of Dhaka. The site
amplification map has three zones with the following characteristics: zone 1with resonant frequency of less than 3 Hz and mean ground motion
amplification of 2.5; zone 2 corresponds to resonance frequencies in a bandof 3 to 5 Hz having a ground motion amplification of 1.8; zone 3
corresponds to resonance frequency greater than 5 Hz and mean groundmotion amplification of 1.8 Hz. The liquefaction map has two zones: a zone
with liquefaction possibility and the other with no liquefaction possibility.
Similar maps for Chittagong, Mymensingh, Rangpur and Sylhet are underpreparation.
3.2.3 Seismic risk
As mentioned earlier that a building inventory was carried out andbased on the collected information, seismic risk for scenario earthquakes
were estimated for Dhaka (Ansary and Meguro, 2003). Figure 7 presents
thana wise average building damage and cost of damages for an intensity
VIII earthquake. Currently building inventory survey of Chittagong,
Mymensingh, Rangpur and Sylhet cities are being conducted.
3.2.4 Vulnerability assessment of existing structures
Vulnerability assessment of existing structures using NDT technique
is important. So far all the damage scenarios developed for Bangladesh werebased on fragility curves proposed by Arya (2000). The researcher of BUET
has recently got some fund from University Grant Commission (UGC) tocarry out research in this direction.

4.

DISASTER MITIGATION IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh achieved remarkable success in managing frequently
occurring hazards such as cyclones and floods. The country has a wellorganized Cyclone Preparedness Plan (CPP), which boasts a volunteer listof around 36000. Even country like India and Sri-Lanka try to emulate CPP.
To cope with the earthquake disaster a similar Earthquake Preparedness
Plan (EPP) need to be implemented.
For earthquake disaster mitigation, professional as well as government
solution is required. Architects, engineers, geologists, planners etc. will

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

35

December 2003, Bangkok

provide technical aspects and NGOs, mass media and social scientists will
provide social aspects of professional solution. Builders, financial
institutions, land developer would be required to support professional
solution. Government agencies can help to implement professional solution
through policymaking and policy enforcement. Government solution should
clearly point out regulatory jurisdiction of each organization. For earthquake
disaster mitigation following pre and post measures should be undertaken
on an urgent basis.
4.1 Awareness and capacity building•••

Increase public awareness through education (school children),earthquake drills, interactive website, mass-media, publication,
training etc.
Training of building inspectors, community leaders, construction
workers and masons.
Updating earthquake engineering course curriculum.

4.2 Earthquake engineering research
•
•
•
•
•
•

Installation of free field accelerographs and seismographs forengineering and seismology studies.
Seismic hazard assessment based on free field data and source
models.
Vulnerability assessments of structures using structural analysis andnondestructive testing.
Develop laboratory and testing facilities.
Development of indigenous and cheap retrofitting measures.
Microzonation of urban areas based on different soil effects.
Updating building code.

4.3 Earthquake resistant construction
•
•
•
•
•

Legal enforcement of building code.
Proper use of ductile steel and lateral force resisting systems.
Building insurance to promote earthquake resistant construction.
Retrofitting critical structures such as schools, hospitals and fire
offices.
Urban and regional planning to mitigate earthquake effects.

4.4 Post-earthquake response
•
•
•

36

Develop automatic safety shutdown system for electricity, gas,
telephone and water supply system whenever the ground shaking
exceeds a certain limit.
Develop facilities for post earthquake search and rescue operation.
Local people and organizations most effectively do rescue of victims
because they are able to carry this out more quickly than outside
agencies. Community based voluntary group should be trained who

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

•
•
•

5.

can actively participate in rescue operation just after an earthquake
disaster.
Prepare contingency plans.
Coordination among different interest groups involved in the post
earthquake rescue effort.
Arrangement of emergency medical treatment facilities for injured
people.

ACTIONS TAKEN AS PER PREVIOUS WSSI WORSHOPRECOMMENDATIONS

The first WSSI Workshop held at Bangkok, Choudhury (1993)
proposed a set of recommendations for future. They are:• Currently at BUET, a PhD research involving seismic risk
analysis for some major cities of Bangladesh is undertaken.
The research will also develop attenuation law for
Bangladesh based on data provided by the strong motion
network recently deployed by BUET.
• Estimation of seismic hazard analysis of Bangladesh andsurrounding area (Sharfuddin, 2000) based on recently
developed earthquake catalogue between 1865-2000. Data
completeness was also carried out.
• Magnitude-intensity and intensity attenuation law weredeveloped for Bangladesh and surrounding area (Sabri, 2001).
• Liquefaction potential and site amplification maps for Dhaka(Rashid, 1999) were developed. The author and coresearchers are currently developing similar maps for other
cities.
• Reassessment of code reappraisal was carried out (Noor,
1997).
• Disaster Management Bureau, MDMR (2002) alreadydeveloped and published a training manual for different
categories of people of the country. DMB also circulated
pamphlets and calendars with simple instructions on do’s anddon’ts of earthquake.
• A mock earthquake drill arranged by MDMR, which will beheld in early December 2003.
• IAEE published guidelines for non-engineered constructions
were translated in to Bengali by the author, which will besoon distributed among engineers by BES under CAREBangladesh sponsorship.
• Already seven free-field strong motion stations were
deployed by BUET. Dhaka University under a joint
collaboration with University of Columbia, USA (Khan,
2003) deployed a broadband seismograph at the Geology
Department of Dhaka University. BMD submitted anotherproposal to the Planning Ministry, which comprises
installation of four broadband seismic stations at four cities.

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

37

December 2003, Bangkok

6.

GENERAL ACTIONS RECOMMENDED UNDER WSSI
The author for further execution recommends the following actions:• Community-based volunteer groups for different wards should
be formed. These groups should also be trained so that during
and after a disaster they function efficiently in search andrescue work, and distribute relief material among the
distressed.
• Developing a method for the interaction between BES and
WSSI. WSSI should also help BES to get approval from IAEE.
• Organizing national and international workshops in
Bangladesh.
• Review and update the existing National Building Code(BNBC, 1993). Circulate a simplified version of the code forthe easy understanding for the general mass.
• Earthquake Preparedness Plan (EPP) similar to CPP should be
promulgated by MDMR on an urgent basis.

7.

SPECIAL FOCUS FOR FUTURE WSSI ACTIVITIESFor Bangladesh, urban earthquake risk is high due to high population
density, low awareness, haphazard development, least emergency response
and recovery capability of the cities. According to a report published byUnited Nations IDNDR-RADIUS Initiative, Dhaka and Tehran are the cities
with the highest relative earthquake disaster risk (Cardona et al., 1999).
The author would like WSSI to help either NCEE or BES to walk the‘last mile’ as suggested by Shah (2003). The author is currently trying toreach the ward people of Dhaka City through his students. Already somecommunity level meeting with local Panchayat Committee was held andsome important feedbacks were obtained (Ratan et al. 2003). It was foundthat the community would like to have expert’s advice in awareness drive,
self-help solutions, community based retrofitting, disaster management
plans, non-structural mitigation etc. Each community/Panchayat meetingwith 50 to 60 people would require only USD 300 to hold. If several suchmeeting (Dhaka has 90 wards, the existing situation of around 30 wards are
critical from earthquake point of view) can be held in the old part of Dhaka
city with the help of multimedia presentation, the awareness level of thelocal people would increase tremendously. WSSI can help in this regard.
The author is proposing to hold 10-15 such meetings per year in different
wards with the assistance of two research assistants (one architect and one
civil engineer) who will be involved as full time staff to contact the ward
commissioners, investigate local communities’ problems related withearthquake vulnerability and preparedness and motivate the ward people toparticipate in such meetings. A budget of around USD 8000 per year will be
required, which includes salary of the research assistants for one year. To
start this program an initial investment will be required to buy a laptop
computer and a multimedia system.

38

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

JMBA-BUET
Others
Proposed BMD

0

100

200

kilometers

Figure 1: Location of accelerographs in Bangladesh

Figure 2: Jamuna Bridge together with some installed accelerographs andfield ETNA

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

39

December 2003, Bangkok

5
Damping = 0.05
Soil Type I
Soil Type II
Soil Type III
Soil Type IV

SPECTRAL ACCELERATIONPEAK GROUND ACCELERATION

4

3

2

1

0

0

1

2

3

TIME PERIOD, T (SECONDS)

Figure 3: Proposed design response spectra

Seismic Zones
Zone 3 = 0.25g
Zone 2 = 0.15g
Zone 1 = 0.075g

Figure 4: Updated seismic zonation map of Bangladesh

40

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 5: Panchayat level community based meeting at Ward 64, Dhaka

LQFAC

Amplification

Possibility
No-possibility

Zone 3
Zone 2
Zone 1Figure 6: Seismic microzonation maps for Dhaka

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

41

December 2003, Bangkok

Economic Losses (Million US Dollar)

35 to 40
30 to 35
25 to 30
20 to 25
15 to 20125 to 170
90 to 125
55 to 90
20 to 55

0

2.5

5

kilometers

Figure 7: Thanawise average damage and economic losses for intensity VIII
earthquake for Dhaka

8.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The author would like to acknowledge MOST, GoB grant in 19981999 and CARE-Bangladesh fund in 2001-2002 through which building
inventory data of Dhaka and other cities were collected.

REFERENCES
1.

2.
3.

4.

42

Ahmad, S.I., 1998. Seismic response analysis of isolated and nonisolated bridges, M.Sc. Engineering Thesis, Department of Civil Engg.,
BUET, Dhaka.
Ambraseys N.N., 2000. Reappraisal of North-Indian Earthquakes at
the Turn of the 20th Century, Current Science, 79 (9-10): 1237-1250.
Ansary, M.A., Noor, M.A. and Seraj, S.M., 2000. Response spectra
based on simulated earthquakes: its application and assessment.
Journal of Civil Engineering, 28 (1), 1-20.
Ansary, M.A., T.M. Al-Hussaini, M. Sharfuddin and J.R. Choudhury,
2001. 1999 Moheskhali Earthquake: A Damage Study, Journal of
Asiatic Society of Bangladesh, 27 (2), 139-149.

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.
10.
11.

12.

13.
14.

15.

16.
17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

Ansary, M.A., 2003. Site amplification study of Dhaka city by using
microtremor observation, CASR Research Project Report, Department
of Civil Engg., BUET, Dhaka.
Ansary, M. A., A. Sadek and T.M. Al-Hussaini, 2003. 2003 Rangmati
earthquake and engineering assessment. Proceedings of the seminaron 2003 Rangamati Earthquake, September, Dhaka.
Ansary, M.A. and Meguro, K., 2003. A study on damage scenarios forbuildings in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Natural Hazards (accepted for
publication).
Arya, A., 2000. Non-Engineered Construction in Developing countries- An Approach toward earthquake Risk Prediction, Proc. of 12th
World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, New Zealand No.
2824 (published in CDROM).
Bilham, R., V.K. Gaur and P. Molnar, 2001. Himalayan Seismic
Hazard, SCIENCE, 293.
BNBC, 1993. Bangladesh National Building Code, HBRI-BSTI.
Cardona, C., R. Davidson and C. Villacis, 1999. Understanding Urban
Seismic risk Around the World, Summary Report on the Comparative
Study of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction, RADIUS Initiative.
Choudhury, J. R., 1993. In Meguro, K and Katayama, T. (editors),
Seismicity in Bangladesh, Proceedings of the WSSI Workshop,
February, Bangkok.
DMB 2002. Disaster management training manual, published by
Disaster Management Bureau, MDMR.
Hoque, M.M., 2002. Analysis of bridge-soil interaction under dynamic
loading, M.Sc. Engineering Thesis, Department of Civil Engg., BUET,
Dhaka.
Iqbal, M.A., 1999. Soil-structure interaction effects on tall buildings
with mat foundation, M.Sc. Engineering Thesis, Department of Civil
Engg., BUET, Dhaka.
Katayama, T., 2003. Ten years with the world seismic safety initiative,
Regional Development Dialogue, 24 (1), 107-114.
Khan, A.A., 2003. Earthquake scenario of Bangladesh in reference to
Kolabunia earthquake of July 27, 2003-vulnerable assessment of
megacities, Proceedings of the seminar on 2003 Rangamati
Earthquake, September, Dhaka.
Mistry, R, Dong, W. and Shah, H., 2001. Interdisciplinary
observations on the January 2001 Bhuj, Gujarat earthquake, WSSIEMI publication.
Noor, M.A., 1997. Reappraisal of code provisions for structuressubjected to seismic loading, M.Sc. Engineering Thesis, Department ofCivil Engg., BUET, Dhaka.
Rashid 1999. Seismic microzonation of Dhaka city based on site
amplification and liquefaction, M.Engineering Thesis, Department ofCivil Engg., BUET, Dhaka.
Rasul, I. I., 2003. Contingency plan of Bangladesh armed forces forearthquake disaster management in Dhaka city, Proceedings of theseminar on 2003 Rangamati Earthquake, September, Dhaka.

Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Bangladesh

43

December 2003, Bangkok

22.

23.
24.
25.
26.

Ratan, M. A. A., Kashem, M. S. B., Hoque, M. M. and Ansary, M. M.,
2003. Participatory community based disaster management:
experinces from old Dhaka. Proceedings of the seminar on 2003
Rangamati Earthquake, September, Dhaka.
Sabri, S. A., 2001. Earthquake-intensity attenuation relationship for
Bangladesh and surrounding region, M. Engg. Thesis, BUET, Dhaka.
Shah, H., 2003. The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance indeveloping countries, unpublished report.
Sharfuddin, M., 2001. Earthquake Hazard Analysis for Bangladesh,
M.Sc. Engg. Thesis, BUET, Dhaka.
Sinha, R. and Goyal, A., 1994. Damage to buildings in Latur
earthquake, Current Science 67, 380-385.

Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansary from Bangladesh

44

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION:STATUS REPORT FOR INDIA
S. K. JAIN
Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Kanpur
India

ABSTRACT
India has a huge earthquake problem and has experienced several
M>8 earthquakes. Some notable activities towards seismic safety took placein India in the early part of twentieth century. Yet, the country remains
highly vulnerable to earthquake disasters. The 2001 Bhuj (Gujarat)
earthquake has clearly outlined the vulnerability of modern Indian
constructions to strong shaking and this has had a deep impact on theseismic safety agenda of the country. The paper describes some recent
developments, both pre- and post-Bhuj earthquake. It also discusses a rangeof concerns that need to be addressed if the country is make a real progress
towards seismic safety. Finally, some suggestions are made forcollaborations between India and other developing countries that can befacilitated by the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI).

1.

INTRODUCTION

Indian earthquake problem is well known. In his book on Elementary
Seismology, Charles Richter devoted an entire chapter entitled “Some Great
Indian Earthquakes”. During 1897-1950, four great earthquakes (magnitude
exceeding 8.0) occurred in India (Table 1). Fortunately, no earthquakes ofM>8.0 have occurred in the country since 1950. Many experts argue thatsuch an earthquake may occur anytime along the Himalayan belt (e.g.,
Bilham et al. 2001).
Several of the moderate earthquakes (magnitude ~ 6.5) in recent years(Table 1) have occurred in areas of low population density, for instance, theUttarkashi and the Chamoli earthquakes. The Koyna earthquake of 1967
took place in an area considered aseismic at that time (in zone I of seismiczone map at that time). Similarly, the deadly Latur earthquake of 1993
occurred in area considered stable and placed in the lowest seismic zone.
The casualty figures in Table 1 clearly underline the fact that Indianearthquake preparedness is rather low, and that the country is subjected tounacceptably large seismic risk. Particularly alarming is the fact thatnumerous multistory buildings constructed in recent years fell like a pack ofcards during the Bhuj earthquake of 2001. About 220 km from the epicenter,in the city of Ahmedabad 130 such buildings collapsed killing about 752
persons.

45

December 2003, Bangkok

Table 1: Some Notable Earthquakes in India
Max.
Date
Event
Time Magnitude
DeathsIntensity
16 June 1819
Kutch
11:00
8.3
IX
1,500
12 June 1897
Assam
17:11
8.7
XII
1,500
Not
8 February 1900
Coimbatore 03:11
6.0
VII
Known
4 April 1905
Kangra06:20
8.0
X
19,00015 January 1934
Bihar-Nepal 14:13
8.3
X
11,000
15 August 1950
Assam
19:31
8.6
XII
1,530
21 July 1956
Anjar
21:02
6.1
IX
115
10 December 1967 Koyna
04:30
6.5
VIII
200
23 March 1970
Bharuch
20:56
5.2
VII
30
21 August 1988
Bihar-Nepal 04:39
6.6
IX
1,004
20 October 1991
Uttarkashi 02:53
6.4
IX
768
Killari
30 September 1993
03:53
6.2
VIII
7,928
(Latur)
22 May 1997
Jabalpur
04:22
6.0
VIII
38
29 March 1999
Chamoli
00:35
6.6
VIII
63
26 January 2001
Bhuj
08:46
7.7
X
13,805

2.

HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS

There have been some remarkable developments in India for morethan about one hundred years in the field of earthquake engineering (Jainand Nigam, 2000).
In September 1931, Sardari Lal Kumar, a young railway engineer in
his twenties was given a rather challenging assignment by his Chief
Engineer. The magnitude 7.4 Mach earthquake of August 27, 1931 near
Quetta (Baluchistan: now in Pakistan) caused a shaking intensity of VIII on
Rossi-Forrel (RF) Scale and killed about 100 persons. Kumar was instructed
to design earthquake resistant quarters for the railway staff in Baluchistan.
Kumar completed his assignment and later presented a very interesting
paper in the Punjab Engineering Congress (Kumar, 1933). This paper
outlined the concepts of earthquake resistant constructions, provided detailsof the buildings that he designed and the cost implications thereof. He alsosuggested the first ever seismic zone map for India, and recommended theseismic factors for different zones and for two different types of buildings.
During the 1935 Quetta earthquake (M7.6; intensity upto X on RF scale;
about 20,000 dead) in that area, the earthquake-resistant railway quarters
located in the area of maximum damage were the only houses that remained
undamaged.
The 1935 Quetta earthquake led to massive reconstruction
programmes that incorporated design for seismic forces. These programmes
were widely acclaimed at that time.

46

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Even before these interesting events in Baluchistan in the thirties, theM8.7 Assam earthquake led to the development of earthquake resistant
Assam Type Houses in the north-eastern part of India. These houses havestood the test of time, and have proved to be excellent for earthquake
performance.
A formal teaching and research programme was initiated at Roorkee
in India about forty five years back. The first formal seismic code wasdeveloped in 1962 (IS:1893-1962).

3.

THE PROBLEM

Despite early gains in earthquake engineering, why has India’s
progress towards earthquake safety been so dismal? There are several
reasons for such a situation including those associated with a typicaldeveloping economy: a relatively poor governance at all levels, priority toprovide basic amenities such as food, shelter and medical care to a huge
population, etc. The issues related to governance are beyond the scope of
this paper.
A developing country like India has a very wide range of
constructions: dwellings done without any engineering inputs using
traditional materials to most modern buildings and nuclear plants. Since themaximum deaths occur in non-engineered dwellings, the issue of nonengineered buildings diverts the attention of the decision makers,
administrators, and even science and engineering leaders. This leads totrivialization of the subject wherein the earthquake engineering is reduced toa “non-engineering problem”. In fact, the 2001 earthquake was the first
instance of an Indian earthquake causing collapses of modern multi-storey
buildings since the earlier earthquakes in the past decade had occurred in therural or semi-urban settings. Prior to the Bhuj earthquake, it was mostdifficult to argue to the non-specialist decision makers that the country
needs to take special steps to ensure compliance of seismic codes.
On one hand, some of the Indian construction and consulting
organizations are competing worldwide, on the other hand at local level
there has been a general decline of construction quality in the country. Withdecline of the caste system (wherein son of a mason inherited masonry as
his vocation) and lack of proper vocational training, it is now increasingly
difficult to find a competent mason to carry out an ordinary job. One mustrecall that only about a century ago, Indian masonry was world renowned.
There is no system for certification of construction trades in India. The
country has no system for competence based licensing of engineers.
The efforts and initiatives after the Baluchistan earthquakes in 1930’s
were led by the professional engineers and not by academics. However, withstarting of research and training at Roorkee, the professional engineers in
the country started looking at earthquake engineering as a super specialty to
be tackled by academics and experts. This is clear from the minimal

Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

47

December 2003, Bangkok

involvement of professional engineers in the affairs of the Indian Society ofEarthquake Technology. Failure to integrate the professional engineers into
the earthquake safety agenda has been a major detriment for seismic safety.
For about a quarter century, earthquake engineering was associatedonly with the Roorkee University in India. Only in the mid-eighties, a few
other academic and research institutions started taking serious interest inearthquake engineering. Even now, there are very few experts in India inearthquake engineering considering the needs of a large country and thesophistication of earthquake engineering. Lack of adequate number ofexperts in the country has meant that the opportunity created by the 2001
earthquake could not be fully exploited towards earthquake safety.
Until very recently, no serious efforts were made to include
earthquake-resistant constructions into the curricula of civil engineering
education (e.g., Murty et al., 1998). In addition, there were inadequate
continuing education opportunities in the country for engineers to learn
seismic engineering. This has caused a very wide gap in the knowledge ofan average civil or structural engineer in India with the state-of-the-practicein earthquake-resistant constructions in the developed countries. For
instance, the Indian seismic codes are found wanting in many respects (e.g.,
Jain, 2002)

4.

SCENARIO AFTER 2001 BHUJ EARTHQUAKEThe Latur earthquake of 1993 was the most deadly earthquake in India
since independence; but it too had a limited impact on the mindset of thecountry towards earthquake safety since only rural areas were affected. The
large casualties were caused by collapses of rubble stone masonry houses
with very heavy roofs, and the earthquake did not carry the message ofvulnerability of modern building stock in our urban areas. The earthquake of2001 has changed the perception of the country. For the first time, TV
screens around the country showed in graphic details the vulnerability of
typical Indian urban constructions. As a result, impact of this earthquake on
the mindset of public as well as policy makers has been enormous.
The experts of earthquake engineering have an inherent handicap inchampioning the cause of earthquake safety. They stand to gain professional
advantages from seismic safety programmes, and hence, their pleadings forsafer constructions are not always effective. It is best if the agenda ofseismic safety is owned by the policy makers and the experts are simply toprovide intellectual inputs. The Bhuj earthquake has made the policy makers
concerned about seismic safety and the country is now open to new ideas
and initiatives to achieve the same.
Clearly, there are no quick fixes to a problem ignored for half acentury, and one has to be patient in implementing changes. And yet, theopportunity created by the Bhuj earthquake cannot be allowed to whither
away. This is the time to make quick gains towards earthquake safety before

48

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

the administrators loose interest with emergence of some other urgent
agenda, or get demoralized due to lack of response from the technicalcommunity. The technical community must now respond by providing
needed inputs in a timely manner. Unfortunately, we have too few experts
and too few institutions with expertise in the subject. Despite thesehandicaps, some remarkable progress has been made in India in the recent
years (both pre- and post-Bhuj earthquake) towards seismic safety. These
are outlined in the subsequent sections of this paper.

5.

SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

5.1

Latur Project

The Latur earthquake of 1993 was the most deadly earthquake since
India’s independence. It led to a massive reconstruction programme in thearea. The programme is documented elsewhere (EERI, 1999). The
earthquake did lead to increase in the awareness levels around the country.
As a result of this earthquake, an upgradation of the seismic network wasundertaken.
5.2

Gujarat Project

As compared to the Latur earthquake, the devastation in the Gujarat
earthquake was spread over a far larger area geographically. Also, while in
the Latur earthquake only the rural area was affected, in the 2001
earthquake the devastation was caused in the rural as well as the urban
areas. In that sense, the reconstruction issues are far more complex in
Gujarat. A massive reconstruction project has been in progress with support
from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and others. While in the
Latur project, the affected persons were provided houses constructed by thegovernment or the NGO’s, the Gujarat rehabilitation project is an “ownerdriven” project wherein the government only provides financial andtechnical support.
Besides a comprehensive rehabilitation project, the Gujarat project has
several capacity building components. For instance, the curricula ofengineering at diploma, degree, and post-graduate programmes in Civil
Engineering in the colleges of Gujarat have been modified to include
appropriate component of earthquake engineering (Jain and Sheth, 2002),
and a large number of faculty members have received training in the subject(Sheth and Jain, 2002). This experience has been very useful to the National
Programme on Earthquake Engineering Education (NPEEE) discussed
elsewhere in this paper. The state is also working towards voluntary
certification of masons, and a compulsory competence-based licensing ofstructural engineers.
As a part of the capacity building exercise, the Government of Gujarat
has commissioned a number of studies: on review of codes and developmentof commentaries/ handbooks (discussed subsequently in the paper),Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

49

December 2003, Bangkok

feasibility study of seismic microzonation, risk and vulnerability
assessment, early warning systems, etc. These studies and the other resource
materials being developed in Gujarat will be of significant value to othervulnerable regions also.
5.3

Activities of Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)

Prior to the Bhuj earthquake, the Ministry of Agriculture of theGovernment of India was responsible for issues connected with natural
disasters. After the Bhuj earthquake the portfolio of natural disastermitigation has been shifted to the Ministry of Home Affairs. Several proactive steps are being initiated by the Ministry towards earthquake safety
which will be visible in the times to come. A National Core Group for
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation has been formed by the MHA to advise on
various tasks associated with earthquake risk reduction. A National
Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Programme has been launched by
MHA together with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 37
cities of the country: these cities have been chosen on the basis of seismiczone (zone III and above) and population (more than 500,000).
5.4

National Programme on Earthquake Engineering Education(NPEEE)

A comprehensive National Programme on Earthquake Engineering
Education (NPEEE) has been launched by the Ministry of Human Resource
Development of the Government of India. The project envisages eightpremier institutes of technology (the seven Indian Institutes of Technology
and the Indian Institute of Science Bangalore) to act as resource institutes.
The project includes components such as short-term (one- to four-week) andmedium-term (one semester) training programmes for faculty members
within the country, international exposure to faculty members, developmentof resource materials and teaching aids, development of library andlaboratory resources, and organisation of conferences and workshops.
Complete details of the programme are available at the NPEEE web site(www.nicee.org/npeee).
The programme started in April 2003 initially for three years with abudget of about Indian Rupees 137.6 million (about US$ 3 million). The
Programme has made considerable progress in less than one year. For
instance, (a) About thirteen short courses of one or two week duration eachhave already been conducted under the programme for faculty members, (b)A group of seventeen faculty members from all over the country havecompleted a one-semester certificate programme in Earthquake Resistant
Design at IIT Kanpur and another group of twenty-two faculty members are
currently undergoing a similar training at IIT Roorkee, (c) several
workshops have been conducted to develop curriculum, (d) civil engineering
curricula at diploma levels in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal
have already been modified to incorporate earthquake engineering coverage
as a consequence of one of these workshops (Rai and Jain, 2003), and (e)50Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Professor Bruce Bolt of the University of California at Berkeley (USA)recently visited IIT Kanpur for one month under NPEEE.
5.5

National Information Centre of Earthquake Engineering(NICEE)The engineering of earthquake-resistant constructions is rather new,and rapid developments are taking place in this subject. The professionals
and the academics were finding it difficult to keep up with the latest books,
journals, reports, and other materials emanating from other countries
considering the high costs. The National Information Centre of Earthquake
Engineering (NICEE) was set up at IIT Kanpur to meet needs of the country
in terms of “information” on Earthquake Engineering.
Originally, the Centre was conceived as primarily a “library oriented”
project. However, with time, its objectives included all activities connectedwith dissemination of information. An endowment of Rs 5 million (about
US$ 110,000) has been raised with the objective that its interest be used for
operating expenditure of the Centre.
First proposal for the Centre was developed in late 1997 and first
endowment contribution was received in 1999. While the fund raising
activity for NICEE was in progress, the activities of NICEE were started ina modest way without making a formal announcement of its formation.
Within a few days of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, the web site of NICEE waslaunched (www.nicee.org), and NICEE started receiving an enormous
response.
The Center is engaged in a variety of interesting projects. For instance,a)

Two major e-conferences have been conducted by NICEE as discussed
later in the paper.

b)

The Centre has distributed free of cost about one thousand sets of two
CDs each on the Bhuj earthquake, originally prepared by the EERI.

c)

It has published Hindi translation of the manual on non-engineered
construction (IAEE, 1986), which is being distributed free of charge.

d)

The Centre has been organizing an annual one-week workshop to help
Masters’ students in civil engineering from across the country withliterature survey for their thesis work. This is aimed at helping thecolleges develop a strong research base through students.

5.6

Seismic Codes

Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in India is responsible fordeveloping various standards related to wide ranging products and services,
including all sectors of civil engineering. The country has a number ofseismic codes:

Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

51

December 2003, Bangkok

IS:1893-1984 Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design ofStructures
IS:4326-1993 Indian Standard Code of Practice for Earthquake Resistant
Design and Construction of Buildings
IS:13827-1993 Indian Standard Guidelines for Improving Earthquake
Resistance of Earthen Buildings
IS:13828-1993 Indian Standard Guidelines for Improving Earthquake
Resistance of Low Strength Masonry Buildings
IS:13920-1993 Indian Standard Code of Practice for Ductile Detailing ofReinforced Concrete Structures Subjected to Seismic Forces
IS:13935-1993 Indian Standard Guidelines for Repair and Seismic
Strengthening of Buildings
Of these, the code IS:1893 is the main code. It was taken up forrevision in the early nineties and the revision has not yet been completed.
After the Bhuj earthquake, Part I of this code pertaining to buildings has
been released [IS1893 (Part 1)-2002]. The other parts related to water tanks,
stacks, bridges, dams etc are yet to be revised. Long intervals between coderevisions are a matter of serious concern.
As the sophistication in the seismic codes has grown around theworld, these have been supported by commentaries and handbooks for
effective implementation. Unfortunately, the system of developing
explanatory handbooks and commentaries of BIS codes has not beeneffective for some time now. In view of this, the Government of Gujarat has
sponsored a study on review of codes and development of commentaries
and explanatory handbooks for the codes on earthquake, wind and fire. The
project is being implemented by the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur
alongwith several other academic institutions. All reports of the project are
to be widely disseminated and in fact even the draft reports are being placedon an open web site (www.nicee.org) to enable the interested professionals
to give feedback while the documents are being developed.
5.7

Microzonation Projects

The Department of Science and Technology of the Government ofIndia has initiated efforts towards seismic microzonation of a number ofcities in the country, including Delhi, Jabalpur, and Guwahati. These arebeing executed through a number of academic and research institutions. A
project on feasibility study for seismic microzonation for cities of Gujarat
has been sponsored by the government of Gujarat and is being executed by
the Oyo Corporation, Japan.

52

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

5.8 Licensing of Engineers
India does not have a system for competence based licensing ofstructural and other engineers. In recent years, it has been realized that in the
WTO regime, country stands to loose significant opportunities without aproper licensing system. Engineering Council of India (ECI) has been
formed after the Gujarat earthquake as an umbrella organization of anumber of professional bodies. ECI is aiming to develop a comprehensive
licensing system for different disciplines of engineering. Some feel that the
ECI efforts are being spread too thin since they are taking up all disciplines
of engineering (civil, electrical, aerospace, …) simulataneously. Clearly,
needs for licensing are much more severe in a discipline like civil or
structural engineering as compared to that in say aerospace engineering.
More recently, the All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) has
made its intentions known to initiate licensing of engineers. AICTE is
primarily charged with regulating the technical education sector and it is notclear if they are the right body for licensing of engineers.
5.9 WSSI Workshop in Mumbai
In December 2002, the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI)
organized a two-day International Workshop in Mumbai on theme“Professional Issues for Earthquake Safety of Built Environment”. Morethan seventy engineers and others interested on the topic debated the issues
connected with earthquake safety. It was felt that there is an urgent need forregulation of the profession of structural engineering through competence
based licensing. A Blue Ribbon Group was formed to pursue the agenda oflicensing of engineers. However, more than just formation of this group, theworkshop created an excellent opportunity for structural engineers and otherstake-holders in construction industry to sit across the table and discuss
issues of common concern.
5.10 E-Conferences and Structural Engineers Forum of India (SEFI)
To commemorate the first anniversary of the Bhuj earthquake, a twoweek e-conference was organized in January 2002 on “Indian Seismic
Codes”. About 1,200 persons participated; about 100 persons from about ten
countries made about 300 postings during the two weeks. The conference
proceedings were provided on the web site of NICEE and a summary
published in a leading Indian journal (Rai and Sheth, 2002). The conference
helped clarify many issues of concern to the participants, and also identified
many important changes needed in the current Indian seismic codes.
Encouraged with the success of the above, in August 2002 another econference was organized by NICEE of one-week duration on the topic“Professional Issues in Structural Engineering in India”. This conference
also received an enormous response. Out of about 1,600 members on theconference, about 130 members from a dozen countries wrote messages. A
great wealth of information on professional issues in structural engineeringin India was generated (Jain and Sheth, 2003).

Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

53

December 2003, Bangkok

With the above two e-conferences, a need became clear for a platform
wherein the structural engineers (and others) can communicate and shareideas. To help develop leadership in the country, NICEE decided to notundertake this activity directly, but helped put together a group of engineers
who established an electronic forum “Structrual Engineers Forum of India”(SEFI) through voluntary contributions (www.sefindia.org). The web site isreceiving enormous response; it now has more than 650 subscribers andthere is a continuous exchange of ideas through the discussion forum. The
SEFI has also hosted a number of e-conferences since it formation in
January 2003.
5.11 Training of Professional Engineers
An enormously successful training programme on seismic design ofreinforced concrete buildings has been conducted by the author alongwith
Professor C V R Murty of IIT Kanpur for professionals for more than ten
years in a number of locations in India and in Nepal and Bhutan. Typicalduration of this programme is five days, even though some programmes ofdifferent duration and on different topic have also been conducted. Most ofthese courses are the self-supporting type, wherein the entire costs are metby the registration fee charged to the participants.
Since 1992, about 2,000 engineers have been trained through thesecontinuing education courses. In numerous instances, some of theparticipants have subsequently explained how the course has helped them
improve their design and construction practices. It was heartening for theauthors to see in the small town of Imphal (near border with Myanmar; inhighest seismic zone V) several buildings under construction with correct
seismic detailing of reinforcement as a result of the efforts of course
participants.
5.12 Low-Cost Books
The author believes that the most cost effective means to achieve
seismic safety in the developing countries is to make the latest literature,books and other information available at reasonable cost. In view of theunfavourable exchange rates, the students and professionals find thestandard text books published in the developed countries as too expensive.
In recent times, Indian editions have been published for several books onearthquake engineering, and are available at a fraction of the cost of whatthese books will cost if imported.
5.13 School Curriculum
Recently, the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has
introduced the subject of disasters in class VIII, and a text book has been
published.

54

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 55.14 Uttaranchal Capacity Building Project
A capacity building project has been completed by the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Centre (ADPC), Bangkok for the state of Uttaranchal forseismic risk reduction with funds from the Asian Development Bank
(ADB). Dissemination of reports and other resource materials of the project
may be useful for other vulnerable regions.
5.15 Project of GeoHazards International
The GeoHazards International (GHI) have been engaged in a projectin India with funding from the USAID. The project aims at risk reduction in
urban centres.
5.16 Earthquake Tips
The project “IITK-BMTPC Series on Earthquake Tips” was started inearly 2002. Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IITK) with sponsorshipof the Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC),New Delhi (in the Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India)
took up this project to widely disseminate the basic concepts of earthquake
resistant constructions through simple language. The project consists ofdeveloping twenty-four (24) Earthquake Tips on two A-4 size pages ofwritten material with graphics. The Tips cover topics such as basic
introduction to earthquakes and terminology such as magnitude andintensity, concepts of earthquake resistant design, and aspects of aseismic
design and construction of buildings.
A large number of journals of architecture, construction and structural
engineering, and many prestigious newspapers are publishing these Tips.
The Tips are also serving as resource materials in colleges and for
professional engineers.

6.

ROAD AHEAD AND CONCERNS

Clearly, a lot is happening in India, but a discussion of this kind will
be incomplete without a mention of a few areas of concern.
a)After the Bhuj earthquake, many states and cities have made thecompliance of seismic codes mandatory. However, there are nomechanisms in place to enforce this compliance. It is not enough todepend on the “written undertaking” by the structural engineers thatthe codes have been complied with. This is similar to the issue of seatbelts in the automobiles; just making the seat belts mandatory does notwork until it is backed up with enforcement through fines for those notwearing the seat belts.

b)

The Bhuj earthquake very graphically showed that all is not well withthe state of structural engineering practice in India, and a system ofEarthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

55

December 2003, Bangkok

competence-based licensing is the first pre-requisite to set thissituation right. Unfortunately, not much progress is being made in thisdirection.
c)

There is a lack of depth in the system with respect to issues on seismic
safety and many rather simplistic solutions are often suggested for thiscomplex problem. It also leads to unrealistic expectations and goals,
for example, “I will like to see all the hospitals retrofitted in the next
five years”. There is a need for the public policy experts to learn fromthe experiences of other countries towards seismic risk reduction andthen adapt those to Indian conditions.

d)When discussing seismic safety, there is too much emphasis on“retrofitting” as compared to ensuring code compliance of new
constructions. A huge stock of unsafe buildings is being added every
day which will be candidates for retrofitting tomorrow. Clearly, thefirst focus should be on putting in place a system for code complianceof new constructions. Thereafter, a systematic and well-debatedapproach to retrofitting should be adopted.

e)While significant expenditure is being incurred in seismic
instrumentation and seismic microzonation, not enough attention is
being paid to research in earthquake engineering. For instance, thecountry needs to develop expertise on seismic retrofitting considering
local construction types and local materials, a lot of work is needed onseismic hazard analysis, and a probabilistic seismic zone map is yet to
be developed.

f)

The lack of progress on revision of Indian seismic codes is a matter ofserious concern. It not only means that the country does not haveupdated codes, but also indicates that there are no pressureswhatsoever on the system for good codes.

g)While significant activity towards faculty development in earthquake
engineering has been initiated under the NPEEE, it is important toengage the faculty thus trained in the area of earthquake engineering
through research or outreach projects. Else, after extensive training thefaculty will return back to their old routine in their respective colleges
and the opportunity created by their training will not be fully utilized
by the country. A programme on research and outreach in earthquake
engineering is therefore urgently needed.

h)Before the Bhuj earthquake, the issue of seismic safety was being
championed by a few academics. After the earthquake, many
administrators too are concerned and are championing the cause which
is most encouraging. However, the engineering profession as a wholeis still not involved in this crucial task; this refers both to governmentengineering departments as well as to the engineering societies andassociations. Since earthquake is primarily an “engineering” problem,

56

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

unless the professionals take the leadership role and own the problem,
the issue cannot be adequately addressed.

7.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The above discussion may have a lot of commonality with otherdeveloping countries, and intent of a frank discussion on various issues has
been that these experiences may be of value elsewhere. It will be mutually
beneficial for other developing countries to collaborate with India and WSSI
can play an important role in this. Some possibilities are:a)

It should be possible for the NPEEE training programmes forengineering faculty to include some faculty from other developing
countries.

b)

The NICEE can be a good model for other developing countries tofollow for setting up an information dissemination system. Moreover,significant cost savings may be achieved by collaborating with
NICEE.

c)

The resource materials being developed can be adapted in othercountries.

d)

There is scope for exchange programmes for academics andprofessionals can be very effective.

REFERENCES
1.
2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Bilham, R., Gaur, V.K., and Molnar, P., 2001. “Himalayan Seismic
Hazard. Science, 293, 1442-1444.
EERI, 1999. Innovative Earthquake Recovery in India. Lessons
Learned Over Time, Learning From Earthquake Series, Vol. II,
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, USA, 95p.
IAEE, 1986, Guidelines for Earthquake Resistant Non-Engineered
Construction. International Association for Earthquake Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 158p.
Jain, S. K., 2002. Codes, Licensing and Education. 2001 Bhuj, India
Earthquake Reconnaissance Report, (eds. S K Jain, W R Lettis, C V R
Murty, and J P Bardet), Earthquake Spectra, supplement A to volume
18. Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 319 –339.
Jain, S. K. and Nigam, N. C., 2000. Historical Developments andCurrent Status of Earthquake Engineering in India. Proceedings of the
Twelfth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland,
New Zealand, Paper No. 1792.
Jain, S. K. and Sheth, A., 2002. Earthquake Engineering in the Civil
Engineering Curricula. The Indian Concrete Journal, 76, 558-562.

Earthquake Risk Reduction: Status Report for India

57

December 2003, Bangkok

7.

Jain S K and Sheth A, 2003. e-Conference on Professional Issues in
Structural Engineering in India. The Indian Concrete Journal, 77, 893896.
8. Kumar, S.L., 1933. Theory of Earthquake Resisting Design With a
Note on Earthquake Resisting Construction in Baluchistan. Paper No.
165, Punjab Engineering Congress, pp154-189.
9. Murty, C. V. R., Sinha, R., and Jain, S. K., 1998. A Report on
Earthquake Resistant Construction in Civil Engineering Curriculum.
Newsletter of the Indian Society of Earthquake Technology, 1 - 10.
10. Rai, D.C. and Jain, S. K., 2003. A Report on the Workshop
on Earthquake Engineering Curriculum for UP Polytechnics,
29-30 July 2003 at IIT Kanpur.
(Available at http://www.nicee.org/npeee/UPPolyWS.htm)
11. Rai, D.C., and Sheth, A.R., 2002. e-Conference on Indian Seismic
Codes, The Indian Concrete Journal, 76, 376-378.
12. Sheth, A., and Jain, S. K. 2002. Training of Teachers for Capacity
Building Towards Earthquake Safety in India. The Indian Concrete
Journal, 76, 629-632.

Prof. S. K. Jain from India

58

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

THE CONSEQUENCES OF EARTHQUAKE“LUGOVAYA” IN ZHAMBYL REGION OF
THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
M. NURAHMETKazakh State Research and Experimental Design Institute on Earthquake
Engineering and Architecture (KazNIISSA)
Kazakhstan
ABSTRACTThis report includes a brief description of the last earthquake struck
on May 23, 2003 in the southern part of Kazakhstan. Detailed informationon the consequences of the earthquake: size of destruction, procedure ofworks on elimination of the earthquake consequence, methods of retrofitingof structures are mentioned in the report. The article talks about the workand activities of KazNIISSA in the area of elimination of earthquake
consequences in respect to the current site development.
1.

INTRODUCTION

The south and south-east territory of Kazakhstan is one of the mostactive seismic zones of the Central Asian seismic region. The last strong
earthquake occured on May 23, 2003, in the southern part of the Republic of
Kazakhstan, 400 km from Almaty City and 100 km from Taraz City, withthe epicenter at the station Lugovaya. According to information from theengineering seismic station “Almaty” the magnitude of “Lugovskoye”
earthquake was 5,4 by the Richter scale, the depth of source (according todifferent appraisals) was 4-8 km. The earthquake intensity at the epicenter
was 7-8 points by the scale MSK-64. The aftershocks with an intensity of 3
points repeated every day for the next 3 months.
2.

THE CONSEQUENCE OF EARTHQUAKE ON 23.05.2003 AT
THE STATION LUGOVAYA IN ZHAMBYL REGION OF THE
REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

The earthquake caused considerable damages within the territory of
more than 500 km² destroying about 8600 buildings. The area that sufferedfrom earthquake to a great extent there were seven settlements where around30 thousand people lived. As a result of earthquake 3 men died, 26 – were
wounded and 20820 people were left homeless. The dead children were of
the school and preschool age. The economic damage caused by theearthquake exceeded USD 120 million.

73

December 2004, Bangkok

The instrumental data on ground oscillations at the epicenter was notreceived, that is why the intensity of earthquake was estimated on the basisof the seismic scale MSK-64 descriptive part. Main results of the macroseismic research are given in the table below.
№

Settlement name

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

station Lugovaya
village Abai
village Kyzyl-Sharua
village Kulan
village Kara-Kystak
village Zhalpaksazvillage Ak-Bulak

Earthquake intensity(magnitude)
7-8
7
7
6-7
6-7
6-7
6

Note. The table includes the information on the settlements where the earthquake magnitude was
not less than 6 points of the Richter scale.

The special commissions which included specialists from the Republic
were called for reconstruction of the buildings that had been damaged due tothe earthquake. The commission’s tasks were to take final decisions on
determination of recovery work, volume and methods of damagedbuilding’s reconstruction, to give recommendations to the developers on the
projects being developed by them and approval of such projects, as well as
approval of decisions on pulling down of buildings and structures.
To take decisions upon operative inspection development of the
district site that were damaged was carried out beforehand.
The general management of survey and project works was provided
by the Head Kazakh State Research and Experimental Design Institute on
Earthquake Engineering and Architecture (KazNIISSA).
The appropriate card (conclusion) containing the main data on thebuilding constructive solutions, information on existing damages andrecommendations on reconstruction and pulling down was prepared for eachexamined building. In addition, the cards with the reports on buildings
examination/inspection were prepared. In addition to constructive solutions
and damages, these reports contained the justification for necessity ofpulling down, reconstruction with retrofiting of buildings and major
overhaul of buildings.
As a rule, hospitals and schools, some office buildings and also boilerhouses that had to start their operation at the beginning of the heating season
were included in the list of especially important establishments to be
immediately reconstructed and retrofitted.
The examination of the site development showed that in spite of thefact that there were appropriate normative directory documents theoverwhelming majority of buildings within the earthquake zone, except

74

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

large-panel and brick buildings, had been built without any antiseismic
measures. Most of office buildings and schools that had been built 20-30
years ago had some antiseismic measures. The plans of those buildings had
been developed for areas with seismicity of 8 and 9 points with due
consideration for the requirements of the normative documents effective at
the design time (Seismic Code II-А 12-69 and Seismic Code II-7-81«Building in seismic regions»). But construction itself was carried out withpoor quality building materials and with deviations from design project.
As a result of the earthquake almost all individual residential buildings
with walls of adobe brick, breeze block and brick that were in zones ofseismic load with intensity of 7 and 8 points had damages of the second andthird degrees and some buildings (those of adobe brick) had damages of the
fourth degree.
The earthquake which occured on May 23, 2003 occurred to a large
extent at the territory of the station Lugovaya where 9594 people lived andwhere its intensity varied from 7 to 8 points by the Richter scale.
Adverse (in seismic respect) engineering-geological conditions
influenced the intensity of the earthquake at the station Lugovaya to a large
extent. The clay loams with evident slump properties and high level ofsubterranean waters (up to 0,5 m from ground surface) predominate in the
subfoundations. Some parts are waterlogged.
One-storey buildings with load-bearing walls of adobe-brickwork(1486 houses) and of brickwork (820 houses) out of 2450 constructions
predominate in the site development of the station Lugovaya. The small
group consists of two- and three-storey buildings with load-bearing walls ofbrickwork and also with the walls of wooden sleeper.
After the earthquake almost all the houses with adobe-brickwork haddamages of second degree. About 50% of those houses had damages of thesecond and third degrees and some houses had damages of the fourth andfifth degrees (utter breaking-down). Caving of walls and their parts, ruptureof wall matings with formation of through-wall vertical and inclined cracks,
deformations in the load-bearing wooden constructions of the coatings are
typical for the houses of adobe brick.
One-storey houses with the load-bearing walls of brickwork weredamaged to a lesser degree but damages mainly of the second and third
degrees (75% out of their total quantity) are also predominate in this group.
There are cracks in the junctures between reinforced concrete slabs ofcoatings, vertical and inclined through-wall cracks in the load-bearing brickwalls in those houses.
In the process of elimination of the earthquake consequences by thebuilding organizations of the Republic of Kazakhstan, it was necessary toconstruct and retrofit about 8600 residential buildings all over again. Within
the period of two weeks the Institute KazNIISSA developed the methods of
The Consequences of Earthquake “Lugovaya”

75December 2004, Bangkok

retrofiting. The mass retrofiting of the buildings of adobe brick (more than
2000) was carried out in our practice for the first time. The experimental
estimate of the parameters of free vibrations of the damaged buildings
before and after retrofiting was carried out which showed sufficiently higheffectiveness of the retrofiting methods. Thus the period of the examinedbuildings were 0.15 seconds before retrofiting, and 0.04 seconds after
retrofiting. This implies that the stiffness of house constructions after
retrofiting increases about 16 times more.
The retrofitting of houses of adobe brick was carried out with the helpof the vertical reinforcing fabrics that were placed on each side of the wallsin the layer of high-strength mortar of thickness not less than 4 cm fromeach side (see picture 1). The foundations of the houses were built of rubble
stone which was also put to retrofitting (see picture 2).
Note: in plane the fabrics of retrofiting are showed with dotted line.

А
to bendБanchorto bendfabricanchorto bendto bendfabricanchorwindow or door
aperture

Picture 1: Retrofiting of walls of adobe brick house by the reinforcing
fabrics in layer of high-strength mortar.

Construction retrofitting of living houses were conducted under
supervision by the Institute KazNIISSA in cooperation with local
administration. In the process of construction the bond resistance of laying
on unbound junctures that stood not less than seven days was examined
selectively in the houses being rebuilt with the load-bearing walls ofbrickwork. The houses where the bond resistance of laying was lower than
the normative one were additionally retrofitted by two-sided fabric in thelayer of high-strength mortar.
The schoolhouses that were exposed to seismic loads with intensity of
6-8 points also were seriously damaged. Out of fifteen buildings ofsecondary schools:- three schools where the antiseismic measures were not carried out
were pulled down; by the first of September four new schools werebuilt in their place;76

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5-

twelve schools had to be retrofiting in spite of some antiseismic
measures. All those schools were commissioned by the beginningof the school year.
Schematic drawing ofretrofiting of the foundation(section)

Schematic drawing ofretrofiting of the upper
setback (section)
wire (d=6, step - not less than 300 mm)
beam

strips of boarding

0.000
anchorstone riprap

от 50 до 100

fabricsupportingrod (d=12)

to concretedampproofing(cement-sand tic rod)

Picture 2: Retrofiting of walls and foundation of adobe brick house.

The main reasons for schoolhouse’s damages were not intensity ofseismic loads but the bad quality of their construction and deviations fromplan.
Due to the fact that the earthquake at the station Lugovaya occurred atnight there were no dead or wounded children in the schoolhouses, but
general estimate of seismic resistance of buildings of rural schools which isa cause for concern.
Magnitude of the earthquake at the station Lugovaya wascomparatively moderate but negative social and material consequences arehighly evident. Similar consequence of the earthquake with moderatemagnitude in the countryside are also well known from experience of the
CIS countries (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and others) and far foreign countries.
Buildings of countryside in the Central Asia are mainly represented by
the houses built from local ground materials (loam, adobe brick and others)
the site development. Cheapness and quickness of building of houses fromsuch materials predetermine their mass character. It is evident that houses
with the load-bearing walls of adobe brick must not be built in seismic
regions and the earthquake at the station Lugovaya proved this again.
The earthquake of 7 and more points can result in more tragic
consequences. The houses with walls of adobe brick are especially
dangerous. Pulling down of such houses and building of the earthquakeproof ones will involve great costs. It is reasonable to retrofite the houses ofthis construction what we can see by the example of the earthquake at the

The Consequences of Earthquake “Lugovaya”

77December 2004, Bangkok

station Lugovaya. Economic analysis shows that building of a new housemeeting the standards requirements will cost about $20 000 and theretrofiting of the damaged houses will cost $5000. Moreover the retrofitingof houses considerably reduces the time of building commissioning.
It seems the normative documents regulating the construction inseismic regions are required to differentiate the approaches to designing ofobjects of urban and rural site development. Moreover it is reasonable toraise the requirements of the buildings where maintenance is connected witha long-time presence such as schools, kindergartens, child institutions ofpublic health service. In particular the height of the said buildings isrecommended to be not more than of 2 stories, and the calculated seismic
load should have the increasing coefficient of not less than 1.3-1.5.
Currently the KazNIISSA experience in retrofiting and reconstructionof buildings damaged by severe earthquakes is being improved and widelyused in the process of development of projects on retrofiting of the present
site development buildings. In particular the KazRIEBA has recently
developed a number of projects on retrofiting the standard schoolhouses andkindergartens where framework do not have any crossbars. The projects aredeveloped with due consideration for the necessity of constructing the harddisks in ceilings and retrofiting of supporting construction units of ribbed
reinforced concrete slabs of ceilings. Reaction to the seismic load by theconnecting diaphragms of different structures and configurations is provided
by the projects. Some projects of this series have been implemented inpractice.
When developing the projects on retrofiting of skeleton-type buildings
the diaphragms of monolithic reinforced concrete (sometimes connecting
diaphragms of steel rolling sections) are usually used for reaction to theseismic loads. Methods of analysis of such buildings are improved
simultaneously with development of the projects on retrofiting.
During reconstruction with retrofiting of buildings with brick loadbearing walls special attention is focused on retrofiting of ceilings,
especially in the cases when the latter are made of wooden beams. As a rulethe brick walls are retrofitted with reinforced fabrics in the layer of highstrength gunned mortar. Sometimes the new ceilings of monolithic
reinforced concrete are made in buildings with ceilings of wooden beams.
The global experience shows that the task of ensuring absolute seismic
security of population residing at seismic territories are still far from final
solution. However, the system of main building regulations allowing tosubstantially alleviate the earthquake consequence and to increase securityof the most vulnerable part of the society (children) has developed in full.
These rules and regulations, based on experience of earthquakes in the pastand results of special researches, are generalized in appropriate normative
documents which are the main instruments of practice carrying out of theState policy aimed at reducing of buildings and constructions vulnerability
to earthquakes. Analysis of earthquake consequence indicates that

78

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

observance of requirements of the normative documents during designingand construction of buildings, irrespective of intensity of seismic loads andtheir specific properties allows to reduce considerably the destruction size.

Mr. Makish Nurahmet from Kazakhastan

The Consequences of Earthquake “Lugovaya”

79

December 2004, Bangkok

Glimpses from the Workshop…

Posters fromparticipants on
display…

80

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

THE SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION
ACTIVITIES IN MONGOLIA
S. DEMBERELThe Research Center of Astronomy and Geophysics of the Mongolian
Mongolia

ABSTRACTThe paper begins with brief information of Mongolia and a history ofseismic observations at Mongolia. The organizational chart of the ResearchCenter of Astronomy and Geophysics of the Mongolian Academy of
Sciences, with it’s the research directions, national and international
research involvement, the project of Seismology are presented. The national
network for seismic observations of the territory is described. The tectonic
background, seismicity, important earthquakes in the past and the micro
zonation of capital city Ulaanbaatar are discussed. Organizations andactivities relevant to earthquake disaster mitigation are presented.

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

Brief country information

Mongolia, with a vast but sparsely populated territory, is land-locked
country of 1,564,100 km2 located in central Asia (Figure 1). It stretches
about 2,400 km from west to east and about 1,260 km from north to southand bounded on the north by Russia and on the southeast and west by China.
The total length of the country's boundary line is 8,158 km. Mongolian
territory is three times bigger than Thailand’s. Mongolia is mountainous
country with an average altitude of 1,580 meters above the sea level. The
lowest point Khokh-nuur in the east is 552 meters above sea level and thehighest point is the mountain Nairamdal in the Mongolian Altai (in thewest) which stands at 4,374 meters. The geography of the country is
characterized by great diversity. From north to south it can be divided into 4
areas, mountain-forest steppe, mountain steppe, semi-desert and the desert.
In the west- north the mountain ranges and ridges are overgrown with wild
forests, big lakes and tempestuous rivers. The vast grasslands of the Asian
steppe stretch across the eastern part of the country. The Gobi Desert lies inthe south occupying somewhat less than one-third of the Gobi Region, therest being semi-desert grassland. The typical landscape, a nature-lover's
paradise, is an undulating steppe land providing fine pastures. The
population of Mongolia is at present 2,475,400 people. It is almost 26 timeless than Thailand citizens. The present yearly rate of population growth isestimated as 2.8 per cent. Much of the population growth of Mongolia has
been absorbed in urban areas. The present urban population is above one
million, Ulaanbaatar having 846,500 inhabitants-one third of the81

December 2003, Bangkok

total population of Mongolia. However, a significant part of the urban

Figure 1: The map of Mongolia
population still live in ger habitations on the town peripheries. While theaverage population density of Mongolia is just over 1,6 person per sq. km,
the population density of South Gobi Province is only 0.3 per sq. km.
1.2

The Research Center of Astronomy and Geophysics (RCAG) of
the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS)The Center of Astronomy and Geophysics has determined its mission
and objectives and are carrying out its activities within the present
framework of organizational structure since 1997. The foundation forresearch work in astronomy and geophysics was established in 1957 –theInternational Year of Geophysics. The Center is conducting basic research
activities in the basic four fields (sectors) of astrophysics, astrometry,seismology and geomagnetic investigation, within the directions ofastronomy and geophysics. Each sector has its own development history,
main directions of research work, results, future trends based on their own
specifics, research equipments, working experience and database, it has
been continuously carrying out its activities since 1960s. The center has
contributed to basic world science, and has comparative advantages in terms
of professional staff resources and locality.
Internal Organizational Structure:
Mission of the Center is: “Contribute to the world scientificinformation fund by the results from theoretical and practical work of
research based on ancient fundamental science; strengthen the priority
position in specific directions of the astronomic and geophysical academic

82

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

research in Mongolia; become a resource for new knowledge andinformation of astronomic and geophysical research in Mongolian society;create an enabling environment for continuous development of theinstitution and its staff”.
A flexible organizational structure was chosen based on this mission
and daily activities are undertaken. Organizational structure of theinstitution is shown in Figure 2.
The R esearch C entre of A stronom y and G eophysics
Director

Joint Expedition

Financial group

Joint projects

Geophysics Sector

Astronomy Sector

Secretary, LibraryVice-Director

Scientific Secretary

Figure 2: Scheme of Organizational Structure of the Center
The main directions of seismic investigation:- Installing and operating the seismic networks for investigation of theearthquake characteristics.
- Investigation to seismic wave propagation in earth deep and surface by aseismological survey.
- The investigation to determined mainshock fault size, source strengthand time to exceed with geodynamics process by the seismologicalsurvey.
- Earthquake engineering research for the seismic hazard mapping- Verification of the nuclear experiment and operating seismic array
networks- NDC (National Data Center) of CTBTO.
The main results:- The determined dynamic and kinematics parameters that are arrival time(To), epicenter distance (∆, km), depth hypocenter (ϕ,λ), magnitude (M),energy class (K) interpreted the seismic network data. From these results
are produced yearly a catalogue of seismic data and a bulletin toexchange the seismic data with International SeismologicalOrganizations.
- We have taken the above materials and made “Mongolian seismic
microzoning map” (M1: 2500000) with the investigation results ofstrong earthquake mechanism, activity, regional seismic regime andseismicity of Mongolia by the seismic propagation strength, time andspace. We have also evaluated 75% of Mongolian territory withintensity 7 and more than 7 scale (MSK-64) probability.

The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia

83

December 2003, Bangkok--

The century’s strong earthquakes and the reasons for tectonic activities
are a collision of India and Asian plates, so has exceed with tectonic
force feature and deep structure of results of a big fault. We have been ahypothesis that it was young in case geodynamics processing. We havedetermined a mantle thickness and a crust by seismic wave velocity andreduced quantitative change. From the above, conclusion are drawn thata crust thickness is over than lithosphere thickness of under mountainregion.
We have resolved that the seismic specter is distributed throughdifferent kind of soil conditions to give a seismic force with disparity
intensity 1-2 scale by the complete engineer-seismological investigation,
which have determined the evaluation of strong mainshock hazard (risk)on the urban city, that is located on the seismic activity region.

Future feature:- We are planning to transform the seismic stations from analogical on
paper to digital format in the near future, to expand seismic data base, todevelop the methods of accurate seismic event detection anddetermination of earthquake parameters, to precise a seismicity and to
study the deep structure model by the seismic wave propagation, to
exceed the seismological, geological and engineer-seismologicalinvestigations with Baikal and Central Asian geodynamics process.

2.

THE SEISMOLOGICAL OBSERVATION IN MONGOLIA

Within the frame of the International Geophysical year the firstseismic station “Ulaanbaatar” was installed (set up) and thus the study ofseismological began in 1957. On the 04 Dec 1957 occurred the Gobi-Altai
earthquakes with M=8.1 by the scale XI-XII, producing 270 km surface
break. It was notified that a new seismological study is to be developed in
Mongolia. The first step of the study, was to make a catalogue of the
problems to mark the historical earthquakes in Mongolia, to increase
seismic stations and to prepare national researchers.
The first basic scientific seismological investigation was set up by
experienced research workers Mr. I.Baljinnyam, D.Munkhuu, Dr.B.Tsembel
and assistant research worker Mrs. L.Selenge. Since middle of 1960, firstnational research workers, Mrs. M.Adiya, Mr. G.Bayar and Dr. T.Dugarmaa
graduated from University of Irkutsk and are still working in the same field.
Currently, there are 25 research workers, including 2 Doctors of Philosophy,
seismologist, theoretical physics, geophysics, engineer-geologists, engineergeodesist, electronic engineers, construction engineer and the young
research worker candidates, that are Mr. M.Ulziibat, Ch.Odonbaatar andMrs. D.Ankhtsetseg.
We are conducting important research activities with the scientists
from the Institute of Earth Crust, Irkutsk of Russian Academy of Sciences,
the “Department Analyse et Surveillance de l’Environnement” of the“Commissariat a l’Energie Atomique” and the U.S. Geological Survey and84

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

studying a new technology, conducting the field work in the seismic activity
region, carrying out engineer-seismological investigation and publishing thescientific results. At present, Mongolia territory has 9 analog seismic
stations working (figure 3) with photorecords, around Ulaanbaatar (UB)
there are 5 real time telemetred digital stations working and one mini-arrayof CTBTO (figure 4).

Figure 3: Location seismic analogical stations
We have studied seismology, engineering seismology andseismogeology and learning to provide normal work of seismic stations, tointerpret a new modern technology, to make data base of seismologicalresearching (investigating) and also to study seismicity, regional seismic
regime, strong earthquakes source mechanism, seismic wave distribution by
the geology, tectonic and geodynamic process. We have published thescientific papers, reports and books, which included all research results forscientists.

Figure 4: Seismic stations around UBThe Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia

85

December 2003, Bangkok

In the past centuries, earthquakes catalogues of Mongolia have shownthat large earthquakes occurred with magnitude more than 5 (Table 1). Fromthese earthquakes, 4 major (catastrophic) strong earthquakes occurred in
Mongolian territory with many thousand kilometers of surface break.
Table 1: Strong Earthquakes in territory of Mongolia in XX century
La Lon.
Mag Intens Fault
N
Name
Date
t.

1
2
3
4
5
6

UnegteiZezerleg
BulnaiMongol-Altai
Gobi-Altai

7
8
9
10

SaihanBuuriin hyar
Mogod

11
12
13

Tahiin shar
Munhhairhan

14

Buteeliin
nuruu

15

Busiin gol

16

Alag erdene

17
18

Bayanzagaan

Uureg nuur

Zambagarav

ManlaiMenengiin tal

19

Erdene20

Han Hohii

21

Mongol Altai

22

Deren

23

Sagsai24

Mongol Altain
ovor

25

Sagsai

26

Altainhyazgaar

1903.II.01
1905.YII.09
1905.YII.23
1931.YIII.10
1957.XII.04
1958.IY.07
1958.YI.23
1960.XII.03
1967.I.05
1970.Y.15
1974.YII.04
1975.III.31
1988.YII.23
1989.Y.13
1992.XII.27
1992.II.05
1992.YIII.31
1993.XI.19
1994.II.10
1994.YIII.31
1995.YI.22
1998.IX.24
1998.XI.21
1998.XI.25
2003.V.07
2003.IX.27

ϕ
43.4
49.5
49.3
46.8
45.1
45.1
1
48.7
43.2
48.1
50.1
8
45
46.8
48.6
2
50.1
8
50.9
5
50.1
9
44.1
47.7
5
44.4
6
49.0
8
50.2
7
46.3
49.0
3
47.6
1
48.4
6
49.9
8

λ
104.5
97.3
96.2
89.9
99.4
98.42

M
7.5
7.6
8.2
8
8.1
6.9

I0
X
X-XI
XI-XIIXI
XI-XII
IX

102.9
104.4
102.9
91.27

6.1
6.7
7.8
7

VIII-IX
IX
X-XI
IX

18
45
6

94.18
91.6
90.64

6.9
5.7
6

IX

17

105.49

5.8

98.17

6.2

100.035.3

106.5
116.495.5
5.1

111.88

5

94.35

5.1

89.85

5.4

106.2

5.4

89.27

5.7

89.74

5.6

89.38

5.7

87.9

7.3

Km
130
370
180
270
7

IX

VI-VIINo
fault

The Tsetserleg (Mw=8.0) earthquakes occurred in July 9,1905. It
produced over 130 km of surface breaks along a left-lateral strike-slip fault
with reverse component. The 23 July 1905 Bolnay (Mw=8.1) earthquakes

86

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

occurred two weeks later and produced 375 km of surface breaks. During
these earthquakes, the motion on the fault was of the order of 12m on
average. The Fu Yun earthquakes on 10 august 1931, Mw=8 occurred on aright-lateral strike-slip fault of the western border of the Altai range. The
Gobi-Altai earthquakes on 04 December 1957 Mw=8.1 ruptured a major
left-lateral strike-slip fault over 270 km.
We have drawn up the official seismic zoning map for Mongolia withscale M1: 250000 in 1998 and the microzoning map of the region (aimags
and others) then were sent to the Institution of Building Construction and
Urban Planning. We have exchanging seismic data with International Data
Center and seismological organization.
In 1994, a digital telemetred seismic network was set up around
Ulaanbaatar within the frame of a Mongolian French collaboration ingeophysics. It was the beginning of a very fruitful technical and scientificcooperation between our Center and the Laboratoire de détection et deGéophysique of the Département Analyse Surveillance, Environnement in
French. This network consists of 6 components (3 short period and 3 broadband) and 5 vertical short period stations whose data are sent permanently to
the Research Center of Astronomy and Geophysics in Ulaanbaatar.
Detection, interactive processing, event location and data storage areachieved at the Center. The aperture of this network (60 km x 70 km) allows
consistent regional monitoring in real time once calibration of the stations
has been performed.
The 6 component stations (ALFM), one broad band 3 components andone short period 3 components, will be included to the 50 primary stations
network of the International Monitoring System to verify the future
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The data will be sent continuously to the
future International Data Center through the French National Data Center by
VSAT facilities.
The seismic data are continuously transmitted in real time to theObservatory where they are digitized, using a personal computer (PC) basedon Seismic Event Detector associated with a GPS synchronized timing unit,
and permanent recordings on a graphical recorder as well as on a movablemagnetic disks. For routine processing and analysis, other PC with
Integrated Software in Seismology are used. Offline playback and data
analysis lead to a seismological weekly seismic bulletin reporting arrival
times of events, epicenter determinations and magnitude evaluations. This
weekly bulletin should be mixed with the National Bulletin and distributed
to different countries of Asia and to the International Data Center.
This Mongolian – French collaboration in geophysics has allowed thedevelopment of new facilities for seismic studies in Mongolia. The seismic
network around Ulaanbaatar is providing valuable data in complement tothose of the existing National Seismic Network. This network is also inaccordance to the standard of the global monitoring system designed forverification of the CTBT. These new data are providing the basis for a

The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia

87

December 2003, Bangkok

technical and scientific collaboration between Mongolian and Frenchgeophysicists.
Our Center is the official agency for a maintaining Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s (CTBTO) geophysics network

Figure 5: Facilities of the CTBTO

stations. A CTBTO International Monitoring System of 321 stations willcollect data worldwide and transmit them in near real-time to the International Data Center in Vienna. The 170 seismic, 60 infrasound and 11 hydroacoustic monitoring stations will be capable of detecting the seismic andacoustic waves caused by a nuclear explosion. The 80 radio nuclide monitoring stations, supported by 16 laboratories, will measure air samples for thepresence of radioactive material. At Mongolia located PS 25 mini area
seismic, IS 34 infrasound, RN 45 radio nuclide stations network.(Figure 5)
In 5 years (1997-2002) scientific program was carried out in GPSgeodesy undertaken in the framework of a collaboration between the
Research Center for Astronomy and Geodesy of the Mongolian Academy of
Science (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia), the Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian
Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (Irkutsk, Russia), andGéosciences Azur, National Center for Scientific Research (Sophia
Antipolis, France). In the framework of scientific projects “Global
Positioning System measurements of active crustal deformation in Western
Mongolia” we achieved good results which were published in scientificpublications. (Eric Calais., 2002.)
Scientific projects "Seismic Hazard at Capital Ulaanbaatar, it's
vicinity" with scientists from LDG DASE France (project leader Dr.
Antoine Schlupp ) and "Mongolian-Baikal Lithosphere SeismologicalTransect" (project leader Dr. Anne Deschamps) with researchers from
Institute of the Earth Crust, Irkutsk, Siberia and Géosciences Azur, CNRS,
Nice, France are underway.

88

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.

ONE CENTURY SEISMICITY MAP OF MONGOLIA

As one of the important scientific results of Mongolian and Frenchcooperation on geophysics we built a homogeneous catalogue of theseismicity of Mongolia using the high level of detection of modern seismic
station installed since 1994 combined with 40 years of SKM-3 recording
data and event known mainly by macroseismic data for the period 1900 to
1964. (Figure 6)

Figure 6: The map “One century of seismicity of Mongolia”

We collected three kinds of seismic data: international published data
(before 1964), seismic data recorded by the Mongol seismic network
consisting in 10 analogical seismic stations (1964-2000) and completed
since 1994 by several digital telemetred stations widespread around
Ulaanbaatar city and in western Mongolia. (Figure 7)
Internationalbulletin

B efore 1964

EPIC-88
Software

FONYX
bulletin

Russianbulletin

1964-1994
Analoguestation

After 1994
Network ofdigital station

North
Mongolia

CATALOGUE

Figure 7: Catalogue procedure scheme

We relocated about 3200 events in the explosion areas and detected
about 2700 quarry blast moved from the seismic data base to a quarry blast
data base. The explosion areas are as follows:- Baga-nuur
971 qbThe Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia89

December 2003, Bangkok- Shariin gol
850 qb- Erdenet
203 qb
-3 south expl.
595 qb-Baga-Khangai
62 qb
We have defined a new seismic attenuation law for Mongolia. We use
this new law to correct all previous data and it is now included in our daily
seismic analysis process.
Our magnitude law is as follows:
ML=LogA/T+0.816xLog(D)+0.00045xD-1.22(1)

We compared the seismic event's location of our reviewed data basewith those published by international seismological organizations (USGS ISC - EMSC)
The result consist of a map showing one century of known seismicity,
first published map of seismicity of Mongolia. The seismic catalogue has
been completely reviewed and contain more then 250.000 events. This map
is available worldwide and is the base for research in seismology in the
territory of Mongolia.(Dugarmaa T., and al. 2002)

4.

THE SEISMICITY OF ULAANBAATAR

Ulaanbaatar is the capital city of Mongolia and it is the country’s main
political, economic, industrial, scientific and cultural center. It is situatedbetween four mountains /Bogda Khan Uul, Chingeltei Uul, Bayanzurh Uul
and Songino Khairhan/ of the Khentii mountain chains at the Altan Tevsh
valley of the Tuul basin at the altitude of 1500 m above sea level /latitude
47° 57` north and longitude 106° 55`. (Figure 8)

Figure 8: Capital city Ulaanbaatar

90

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Most of the Ulaanbaatar territory has had difficult engineering andgeological conditions and located in a seismically active zone /or 7-8 points
along the Richter scale/. The city total territory is 470,400 square hectares,
and its residential area covers 22,400 hectares, out of which 12.3 thousands
are under apartment buildings, 4.1 thousands – under the ger districts, 6.1
thousands – common land, 33.6 hectares are green zones. As of the end of
2002, over 30 per cent of the entire population of Mongolia or 824.7
thousand people are city residents. The density of population in Ulaanbaatar
is the highest with 175 persons per 1 km2. With carrying capacity of
400,000 people, the overcrowded city faces currently an ecologicalimbalance, decreasing living standards and growing poverty.
Before 1999, a partial plan for developing residential ger districts wasformulated, which again became un-realistic due to the social development
trends and economic crises. The latest Constitution of Mongolia provides
that “every citizen is entitled to chose his/her place of residence” and inaccordance with it the migration to the city became very strong, thus
entailing the city to be over populated, unplanned expansion of the city
territory and the ger districts, with relatively cheap housing or gers. Only in
1989-2002, the city population went up by 41 per cent or 250,000 citizens,
the population growth was high and intensive construction works were
under way. In this context, multiple problems needed to be resolved in city
construction and planning domains. (Tselmeg M., 2003.)
In Mongolia, as well as in all high seismic countries of the world,
study of seismicity and estimation of probability of future destructive
earthquakes are important for economic stability and human protection.
Seismological condition of Ulaanbaatar region are directly connected withseismic conditions of the territory of Mongolia. Mongolia characterizes thetransition between compressive structures associated with India-Asian
collision and extensive structures localized in north of the country as
Hovsgol area and Baykal rift. Since 1905, Mongolia suffered four
earthquakes with magnitude larger than 8 (Tsetserleg 1905, Bolnai 1905,
Fu-Yun 1931 and Gobi-Altai 1957). (Table 1) These events associated withdisplacement along the faults up to 12 meters (Baljinnyam and al 1993,
Schlupp A.,1997). The cumulative deformation along the Gobi-Altai fault
shows that the return period of such great earthquakes on this fault are of theorder of 5000 years with a strain rate about 1 mm/year. Active faults are
numerous and large but the occurrence of these four large earthquakes inless than one century is unusually high (Schlupp A.,1997).Ulaanbaatar issituated at the east of these main active faults. Therefore, we have tounderstand better the seismotectonic model of the region by collecting new
data about deformation near Ulaanbaatar. At the present, Today, we arecollecting the seismic data from 9 analog seismic stations with records on
photo paper, 5 high dynamic digital seismic stations, one CTBTO miniarray (10 stations) telemetred in real time to our NDC and one IRIS station.
We are presented a seismicity of the Ulaanbaatar region by about 10602
events from the seismic catalogue with after marcoseismic data 1913 to
1963 and after instrumental data 1964-2002 by depending on technologicaland detection characteristics. We have taken a study’s region about 350 km

The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia91

December 2003, Bangkok

radius around Ulaanbaatar city, and divided the region in six subregion,
which is characterized by the epicenter’s density, geological structure andactive fault. The range of magnitude are from 3 to 7. It shows high activity
near the Mogod Earthquake, 5 January 1967, Mw= 7,2 and some dense
activity as 180 km south of the capital in Deren region where a recent event
was largely felt at Ulaanbaatar(Anhktsetseg D., and al. 2003.). The otherseismicity is more widespread. Despite of magnitude are low in that region,
they are recognized active faults with no particular seismicity associated
where event up to magnitude 7 can occurred. This work is associated withpaleoseismological survey on particular active faults. From the seismicity
map, the region near Ulaanbaatar is seismically active and some earthquakes,
which can have destructive effect on the city Ulaanbaatar, can take place.
(Figure 9)

Figure 9: The Seismicity map of the Ulaanbaatar area (M ≥ 1.8)

Concerning seismic hazard, one key question is whether high seismicity rate
is representative of what we may expect in the future and what is the hazard
assessment with smaller, but more frequent, events. In that context, theknowledge of the seismic hazard at Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia where
35 to 40 % of the population live, is of first importance. Some quaternaryfault scarps were recognized at a distance of 40 to 200 km from
Ulaanbaatar. We estimate that they could produce magnitude 6.5 to 7
earthquakes and may cause damage in the city. Our objective is to assess
seismic hazard at Ulaanbaatar taking account of the dense seismicity
recorded since 1994, revised regional attenuation law and estimatedrecurrence time on the faults near Ulaanbaatar obtained from paleoseismic
survey. We have also undertaken a microzoning to estimate site effects fromseismic measurements and noise recording within the Ulaanbaatar

92

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

sedimentary basin. The regular seismicity allows us to compare several
techniques (site/reference and H/V either on recorded noise or event). We
will estimate the ground accelerations at Ulaanbaatar, and their recurrencetime, produced by events localized either on large faults detected or
anywhere for the low seismicity. The final result (the end 2003) will be thezonation of seismic hazard with its characteristics for Ulaanbaatar.
5.

THE LAST STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN ALTAI (M=7.3) ON
SEPTEMBER 27, 2003

On September 27, 2003 at 11:33 (GMT) the strong earthquake withmagnitude М=7.3 has happened in Altai. Location of epicenter is 49.99N
87.90E and depth 18.4 kilometers and ruptured a big fault along many
kilometers. It is just near of Mongolian west border and at Ulgii city we hadsome damage of buildings. Our Center with LDG DASE France organized a
expedition to study this earthquake and aftershocks directly near to theepicenter. Our seismologists worked in Mongol Altai region during 40 days.
Using 5 mobile stations (Airoi, MoBal) we recorded aftershocks andconducted first investigation of this earthquake.(Figure 10)

Figure 10: Aftershocks in Altai.

– Aftershocks- M=1.5-4.5

To study this strong earthquake in details we are planning to organize andsend in June or July 2004 to Mongol Altai region a international team ofseismologists from the Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of theRussian Academy of Science (Irkutsk, Russia), and LDG DASE France.

6.

WSSI AND MONGOLIA

After receiving the official invitation to the Third International
Workshop on "Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific

The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia

93December 2003, Bangkok

Region" from Dr. Tsuneo Katayama, Chairman, WSSI Board of Directors, I
have read three reports kindly sent me. I was impressed by people who
worked during these 10 years in WSSI, who made many useful things onearthquake disaster mitigation throughout the world, especially in developing
countries. It was really heroism from these people, who spent huge energy
and efforts practically on a voluntary basis.
Main organization on the natural disaster reduction at Mongolia isState board for Civil Defense. Our center has close cooperation with thisorganization providing them all strong earthquake data. During last monthwhen I prepared my presentation to WSSI workshop I had a fruitful
discussion with deputy chief and secretary of State Permanent Emergency
Commission Mr. Togoo CH. I introduced Mr. Togoo Ch. to WSSI activity.
We decided to continue our discussion more constructively after WSSI
workshop.
At Ulaanbaatar I had a meeting with Dr. Tomohiko Hatori from Asian
Disaster Reduction Center(ADRC). ADRC is planning to support the
Urban Seismic Risk Management Seminar in UB organized by three
Mongolian governmental organizations, Strategic Planning andManagement Department of Ministry of Nature and Environment,International Cooperation Department of Ministry of Nature andEnvironment, and State Board for Civil Defence. The seminar will be heldin March, 2004. The title of seminar is "Vulnerability and Risk Assessmentof the Possible Earthquake and Measure to Prevent Earthquake Disaster in
Urban City". Our center is invited to this seminar and we are preparing two
presentations “The seismological observation at Mongolia” and “Seismic
hazard map of Ulaanbaatar”. I met the coordinator of this seminar Ms.
Bolormaa Borkhuu, Officer of Strategic Planning and Management
Department and discussed about a participation to this seminar some people
from WSSI. It would be better to participate in this seminar in order to havemore information about Mongolia. It is like Mongolian proverb “Better tosee once than to hear thousands”.
I have read "The Last Mile" by Prof. Haresh C. Shah with a greatinterest. Here are many critic about results of some projects from ainternational organizations which was useless. It is a first time when I read
officially distributed and so strongly discussed, a self-examination material
for some international organization. It means the WSSI has a future. I am
sure that many people from developing countries will be agree with me
about importance of international efforts to reduce the level of earthquake
risk in the most vulnerable communities in developing countries to an
acceptable level consistent with sustainability of these communities. In that
context we should develop and increase The World Seismic Safety Initiative
activity in the new format, revising its Mission and Goals along with its
operational structure which was proposed by W. Iwan, K. Meguro, and B.
Tucker.

94

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

It is not so easy to have positive effects on seismic risk reduction
activity in developing countries when result of our efforts will depend frommany factors.
After my attendance to WSSI workshop I am planning to participate
in the TV project about seismic hazard and seismicity of Mongolian
territory. After a strong earthquake in the west Mongolia –Altai region we
received a proposal to participate in this TV project. I requested TV project
manager to move date of this project to late day after my arrival from WSSI
workshop in order to include some useful materials about WSSI activity on
the seismic hazard reduction field throughout the world in my presentation.
It would be useful if WSSI will provide local coordinators by serialmaterials about earthquake hazard, activity and experience from developed
countries.
There are a few government organizations as Government executive
agency-State Board for Civil Defense, Urbanization and Investment
Department of Ulaanbaatar city administration, the Strategic Planning andManagement Department of Ministry of Nature and Environment and etc.
Each of these organization is "expert" in one aspect of earthquake hazard
reduction problem. But it is only with the association of all the knowledge
that we can promote reduction of seismic risk, in Mongolia as all over theworld. I am optimist and sure that in future we with WSSI will carry out
useful joint project on the seismic risk mitigation in Mongolia.

REFERENCES

1.

2.

3.

4.

Anhktsetseg D.1, Dugarmaa T.1, Schlupp A.2, Ulziibat M.1,
Odonbaatar CH.1, Bayarsaihan Ch.1, Munkhsaihan A.1, 2003. (1Research Center of Astronomy and Geophysics of Mongolian
Academy of Sciences, 2 Departement Analyse, Surveillance,
Environnement, BP12, Bruyeres le Chatel, 91680, France) Seismicity
around capital Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. IUGG 2003 Abstract. S04bPosters.
Baljinnyam, I., Bayasgalan, A., Borisov, B.A., Cisternas, A.,
Dem'yanovich, M.G., Ganbaatar, L., Kochetkov, V.M., Kurushin,R.A., Molnar, P., Philip, H. and Vashchilov, Y.Y., 1993. Ruptures ofMajor Earthquakes and Active Deformation in Mongolia and its
Surroundings. Geol. Soc. Am., Mem. 181, 62pp.
Dugarmaa T., Schlupp A., Adiya M., Ankhtsetseg D., Bayar G.,
Munkhuu., Selenge L., Tsembel B., Ulziibat M., Odonbaatar Ch.,
Mungunsuren D., Munkhsaihan A., Narantsetseg R., Urtnasan Kh.,
Bayarsaihan Ch., Baasanbat T., 2002. Seismic map of Mongolia andSite Effect Microzoning at the capital, Ulaanbaatar.
Eos,
Transactions, American Geophysical Union,Vol. 83, №47, AGU Fall
Meeting, San Francisco, California.
Eric Calais., 2002. Global Positioning System measurements of active
crustal deformation in Western Mongolia. 1997-2002 report.
http://www.eas.purdue.edu/~calais/projects/central_asia.html

The Seismic Risk Reduction Activities in Mongolia95

December 2003, Bangkok

5.

Schlupp A.,1997. Néotectonique de la Mongolie Occidentale analyséeà partir de données de terrain, sismologiques et satellitaires, PhD
Thesis, Univ. Louis Pasteur Strasbourg.
Tselmeg M., 2003. City planning and land management. Workshop“Municipality of Ulaanbaatar City and The World Bank”
http://www.ub2003.com/presentation_06.html

Mr. S. Demberel from Mongolia

96

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATIONACTIVITIES IN INDONESIA
JAN 1999 – NOV 2003
K. PRIBADI, D. HOEDAJANTO and T. BOEN
Indonesia

ABSTRACTThis paper highlights the various activities related to earthquake
disaster mitigation in Indonesia since WSSI second workshop in Bangkok in
January 1999 up to November 2003. The paper also explains in brief theIndonesian political and economic situations and the uncertainty related tothe decision in setting the priority for disaster mitigation activities inIndonesia in part due to the still unsettled decentralization process.

1.

INTRODUCTION

During the WSSI Second Bangkok Workshop in January 18-20, 1999,
the Indonesian representative mentioned four most urgent needs in
improving the earthquake safety in Indonesia, namely:
1. Finalize the Indonesian Seismic Zoning map
2. Finalize the Revision of the Seismic Code3. Establish a Structured Organization for Disaster Management
4. Duplicate Projects such as IUDMP and RADIUS in other cities
The following is a summary on the progress achieved related to the above
needs.

2.

INDONESIAN SEISMIC ZONING MAP

The progress in developing the Indonesia Seismic Hazard map may besummarized as follows:
2.1

Shah and Boen Seismic Hazard Map

In 1996, with the assistance of WSSI, a Seismic Hazard model was
produced by Shah and Boen and presented during the Indonesian Society for
Structural Engineers annual conference in Jakarta, August 1997. A
probabilistic hazard model for estimation of the seismic hazard in Indonesia
has been developed on the basis of available data, studies, and literature.
Seismic source zones have been delineated on the basis of regional plate
tectonics and seismicity. The occurrence of earthquakes in the seismic
source zones has been modeled as a Poison process in combination with the
Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Source zone seismicity parameters havebeen estimated from historical earthquake data. The Great Sumatra fault

59

December 2003, Bangkok

zone was included into the model, and slip rate data used to estimate its
seismicity parameters. A seismic map showing peak ground acceleration(PGA) with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years on average soil
conditions has been developed using this model and attenuation equations
by Crouse (1991) and Fukushima & Tanaka (1990) for the whole country,
except the islands of Kalimantan and Sulawesi. The map was developed
using standard probabilistic hazard methodology and took into accountuncertainties associated with the attenuation models.
2.2 J. Firmansyah & M. Irsyam Seismic Hazard Map
In 1999, J. Firmansyah & M. Irsyam of the Department of Civil
Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung developed a seismic hazard
map for Indonesia based on probabilistic modeling. The assessment takes
advantage of recent higher quality regional seismological data, re-appraised
older instrumental catalogues and current tectonic interpretations. Peakground accelerations on base rock are estimated based on seismic sources in
the Indonesian archipelago that is located in the convergence zone of threemajor lithospheric plates; the Indian-Australian plate, the Pacific plate andthe Eurasian plate.
The seismic source modeled the earthquake potential to a depth of 200
km beneath ground surface. They include the Great Sumatra, Sukabumi,
Palu Koro and Sorong faults, all subduction zones and shallow crustal ofIndonesia. Two attenuation functions were used, one proposed by Young(1997) was selected for subduction environments and another one,
attenuation function of Joyner & Boore, was used for other seismic sources.
A seismic hazard map for Indonesia showing peak ground accelerations(PGA) on base rock with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years wasdeveloped based on the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude vs. frequency
relationship in combination with a Poison process mode.
2.3

GSHAP Seismic Hazard Map

In 1999, Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP)
published a map based on the work of Shah & Boen. In the model, twosources were used to characterize the region: Sumatra subduction zone andthe Sumatra fault. The Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE)
catalog was used to determine rates on the subduction zone, slip rates wereused to determine the frequency of earthquakes along the fault. Two groundmotion prediction equations were used to estimate the ground shaking
hazard. In these models peak horizontal ground acceleration is calculated forhazard level of 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years.
2.4

USGS Seismic Hazard Map of Sumatra

In 2000, Mark Petersen et al from USGS produced a seismic hazard
map for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula based on probabilistic
analysis using the procedures for the US National Seismic Hazard maps.
Regional earthquake source models were constructed and standard

60

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

published and modified attenuation functions were used to calculate thepeak ground acceleration at 2% and 10 % probability of exceedence in 50
years for rock site conditions. A modified and declustered catalog wasdeveloped to provide independent earthquake information. Four sourcezones that characterize earthquake in four tectonic environments:
subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab
earthquakes, strike slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes.
The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults andacross zones were determined from this modified catalog. In addition tosource zones, two source models consider two major faults that are known
historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatra subduction zone andthe Sumatra transform fault. Ground motions were calculated using groundmotion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained
from the crustal interpolate environment, crustal intraplate environment,along subduction zone interface and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Forinterpolate and intraplate crustal earthquakes ground motion prediction thatare consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) string
motion data for distances beyond 200 km are used. In the analysis,
alternative source and attenuation models are used and weighted them toaccount for uncertainties in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra
and Malaysian peninsula.
The seismic map used in the current Seismic Code was developed
mainly by combining and modifying the maps as mentioned in 2.1 and 2.2.
Modifications were mainly based on inputs from the Geologic Research andDevelopment Center (GRDC), Bandung. In this near future, all parties
involved in developing the existing Indonesian Seismic Hazard maps plan
to produce a new map taking into considerations new developments in thefield as indicated in 2.3 and also additional data available.

3.

SEISMIC CODE (SNI 03-1726-2002)

The move to renew the old Indonesian Earthquake Code got its first
unofficial kick-off around 1995 upon reviewing the UBC 1994. It was
concluded that the existing code which was based on the state of the arts ofthe early 80’s were not good enough to answer the actual need of better
earthquake resistance building for our country. An informal gathering wasstarted at the office of Indonesian Society of Civil and Structural Engineers(HAKI)1.
In the past HAKI has been instrumental in all process of drafting ournational code for civil works, in which the official prime mover has always
been the Office of the Public Works Department (PWD). This time aroundhowever while the same operating procedure was followed, there was a newsmall twist introduced by our PWD Office. Instead of picking thechairperson of the working group through the usual election process
1

HAKI is the abbreviation of the Indonesian name of the Indonesian Society of Civil and
Structural Engineers. HAKI stands for Himpunan Ahli Konstruksi Indonesia.

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

61

December 2003, Bangkok

established in a national workshop, the PWD Office decided to directly
appoint the chairperson and give full authority to proceed with the works.
While the working team were indeed formed by selecting representative ofalmost all parties interested and involved in civil works, the fact remain thatthe process did not lend it self to a more democratic approach in important
discussions and decisions. In the course of the works many conceptual
differences emerges, especially after the publication of the UBC 97. HAKI
presented their view and proposed to adopt the UBC 97 as the main resourceof the new code.
Right from the onset, there was a big conceptual difference among
members of the working group. One party strongly adopted a soft andconciliatory approach by introducing moderate changes to bridge the gap
between our then existing code and the new state of the arts portrayed in
UBC recommendation, while the other party (consisting most of theworking group members), including those from HAKI who were notdirectly involved in the process, prefer to a more realistic and easierapproach by fully adopting the UBC 97.
It was believed that the main reason for the first party who choose to
adopt their approach was to prevent sudden and drastic changes in the new
Earthquake Code. This in a way is to guard against possible legal problems
that may arise against the local government especially for new buildings
built based on the old code. In the old Earthquake Code, the return period
for the design earthquake was 200 years. There were strong wishes among
the leading Indonesian researchers and practicing engineers to completely
revise it and started to build a new Earthquake Zoning Map based on 500
years return period. The drive to change the map was finally accepted,
however the impact of some important and drastic changes which were theintroduction of much higher performances demand to the structure were“soften” by adopting some formulas derived specifically for the purposes.
Trial and error approach combined with some mathematical exercise werecarried out to lend a hand for the establishment of formulas which may still
give close end result to those obtained using the old code. The idea wasprobably to prevent possible negative social impact if the public learned that
their building, which were designed and constructed based on the old code,
were actually become under designed under the new code.
Some of the main concerns were:
1. The use of the minimum value as the established design groundacceleration for region within two contours of maximum groundaccelerations. This concept do not agree with the practice used inother world codes,
2. Derivation of R value for certain type of structural system whichwere not backed by appropriate and credible research and field
investigation/observation,
3. The formulae used to establish the R value for structure withdifferent structural subsystem. Averaging the R value of eachsystem seems to be inappropriate.
4. Some clauses such as for accidental torsion are not in accordance
to the current prevailing standard practice etc.

62

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

It was due to those reasons the Office of MHSI (Ministry of Human
Settlement and Infrastructure), replacing the former PWD Office, could notbring an official consensus on the new code SNI-03-1726-2002. The parties
involved came to its positions and do not want to let go their opposing
differences. Those who disagree and understand the basic choose to adopt
the use of either UBC 97 or 2000 IBC in their practice. However there aremany more engineers who do not understand, and hence have to take thechance of adopting probably in some cases an unsafe code for their practice.
The introduction of Performance Based Earthquake Engineering in thelatest world Codes should raised another concern. To master the techniqueof this PBEE, there is strong requirement to understand the basic knowledgeof nonlinear structural response. Certainly the case raised above on the useof improperly substantiated R coefficients needs to be addressed and better
explanation should be given to general public. This is very important toguard against misuse which may then leads to unexpected failure.
It may easily be summarized that the new SNI 03-1726-2002 code for
Earthquake Resistance Building needs to be revised as soon as possible. To
keep it officially floating as a legal document is not healthy for the
profession as well as for the academic circle.
Considering the advancement shown in 2000 IBC, many felt that it isbetter and more practical to adopt 2000 IBC as our main reference.
Unfortunately this may not be easily accomplished. The role of the current
MHSI Office is still too dominating, and indirectly their wish will get its
way. If history repeat it self, then maybe we have to wait for at least
another ten years before we have a new code to replace the current one.

4.

STRUCTURE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN INDONESIA

During the Second WSSI workshop, the Indonesian representative
stated the importance of establishing a structured organization for disastermanagement in Indonesia. Five years later, the situation is not muchchanged. As is known, disaster management activities in Indonesia arecoordinated by BAKORNAS PBP (National Coordinating Board forDisaster and IDP Management), chaired by the Vice President, while theCoordinating Minister for People’s Welfare and Poverty Alleviation acts as
its Vice Chairman as well as the Daily Executive in Chief, established under
the Presidential Decree No. 3/2001 and its revision Presidential Decree
No.111/2001.
The Secretary of the Vice President is assigned as the Secretary for
BAKORNAS PBP. BAKORNAS PBP is a non-structural coordinationbody for disaster management in Indonesia under and is responsible directly
to the President. It has operational instruments at all levels, from the central
down to district and city levels. BAKORNAS PBP involves various
government institutions; NGOs and community organizations.
Mission of BAKORNAS PB:

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

63

December 2003, Bangkok

•
•
•

4.1

Formulating and establish policy of disaster management and
IDPs’ handling in a quick, efficient and effective manner
Coordinating the implementation of disaster management and
IDPs’ handling activities in an integrated manner.
Providing guidance and supervision on disaster management and
IDPs’ handling efforts which include prevention, rescue and relief,
rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Problems on the Policy Level

On the practical side, BAKORNAS PBP until now still puts heavyemphasize on emergency response and much, much less on the prevention
and mitigation side of disasters. Despite its stated missions, much lessefforts and resources were put for coordinating prevention, mitigation andpreparedness activities.
Currently, the organization is much preoccupied by the social conflicts
occurring in many parts of the country, and its attendant problems, such as
handling of IDP and refugees. Also some efforts were focused on forest fireand haze problem, as it already created political implications at the regionaland global level.
For other types of disasters (earthquake, flood/flash flood, landslide,volcanic, etc.) coordination efforts seem to be intensified during disasterperiod only for emergency response purposes.
Starting from rehabilitation/reconstruction stage, coordination isturned over to the technical ministries, such as the Ministry of Settlement,
Ministry of Health etc. In this case the opportunity to include integrated
mitigation efforts (from reconstruction/rehabilitation stage) starts todiminish, and people tend to construct/reconstruct/develop as before thedisaster, therefore creating the “disaster-reconstruct-develop-disaster”
vicious circle.
In the past regime, policies on disaster management and mitigation
had been developed summarily, but at the implementation level, its
effectiveness is questionable and many of the policies have low
acceptability.
4.2

Problems at the Local Level

The local community and the local authorities operate in the same
pattern as the national institutions. No priority is given to pre-disaster
preparedness and mitigation.
Awareness is in general very low at the community level, as there are
only very few awareness raising programs conducted in a coordinated andsustainable manner.

64

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

In most cases, local authorities put disaster preparedness and disastermitigation efforts on the lowest priority in their annual budget setting.
4.3

Possible Causes for the Situation

First of all, it might be suggested that the non existence of a legal basis
for disaster management in Indonesia contribute to this situation. There iscurrently no law/act on disaster and disaster management which could
enhance the initiatives in mitigation and prevention of disasters. Other legal
provisions related to disaster and disaster prevention can be found spreadingin other acts, such as the act on Regional Spatial Plan etc.
The second cause could be found in the fact that BAKORNAS PBP isa non structured institution with no vertical authority at all. The only
permanent part of BAKORNAS PBP is the Secretariat of BAKORNAS PBP,
which is currently chaired by the Secretary of the Vice President, assisted byVice Secretary and 4 deputies (Deputy for Disaster Management, Deputy
for IDPs’ Handling, Deputy for Cooperation and Community Participation
and Deputy for Administration). National policy formulation at thisinstitution is not a straight forward job, because it requires the deliberationof all the members of BAKORNAS PBP, which seldom put enoughresources to this kind of activity. BAKORNAS PBP resources, in term offunds, personnel and equipment is very limited, because as a non structured
institution, it does not have an operational or development budget, except
for secretarial purposes only, which uses the Secretary of Vice President’s
office resources.
Coordination of disaster mitigation and prevention activities is very
limited, because of the above constraint, and those activities are supposed tobe carried out by the relevant line ministries and technical departments,
which on the other side, except for certain case, usually do not havespecialized divisions in charge of conducting mitigation efforts. In general,
the effectiveness of BAKORNAS PBP in disaster prevention and mitigation
can not be fully developed because of the inherent constraints adhered to theorganization, and at the lower level (local government level) the patternrecurs similarly. Strengthening/improving of the disaster management
institution is a must to achieve a saver environment and saver community.
5.

DUPLICATION OF IUDMP / RADIUS PROJECTS RESULTS

For phase III implementation of Indonesian Urban Disaster Mitigation
Project (IUDMP 1999-2002), it was agreed that IUDMP should not repeat acity’s demonstration activities elsewhere and instead the following activities
were prepared for IUDMP phase III.
5.1 Implementation of IUDMP – Phase III••

Replication in Bengkulu City
Development of user friendly document for information
dissemination

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

65December 2003, Bangkok

•
•
•
•
•

5.2

National Training of Trainers for School Earthquake Safety
ProgramNational Lessons Learned Workshop for Indonesian City andDistrict Managers (collaborate with Association of City
Government/APEKSI)Develop and implement rapid risk assessment procedure for cities
in Indonesia, to follow-up demand raised during the workshop
Development of national strategy on urban disaster mitigation(collaborate with BAKORNAS PBP)
Preparation of a strategic organizational business plan for an ITBCenter on Disaster Mitigation and Prevention

IUDMP Replication in Bengkulu City
•
•
•
•
•

Workshop on Seismic Risk and Earthquake Resistant Building in
Bengkulu City (Local Government Officials, Professional Groups,
Academia)
Workshop on School Safety for School Community
Training Program on “Repair, Retrofitting and Strengthening of
the Earthquake Damaged Building” (City Engineers, Contractors
and Consultant, Academia)
Training for Craftsmen on “Construction of Earthquake Resistant
Building”
Workshop on Preparedness Planning: “Disaster Management andEarthquake Hazard in the City of Bengkulu” (Local Community
Groups)5.3 Development of User Friendly Document for Information
Dissemination
•
•
•
•

5.4

Bilingual earthquake picture dictionary.
Booklet of earthquake, its phenomena, disaster and alternative
mitigation efforts for the general public.
Guideline for implementing Disaster Mitigation Initiative for City
Managers.
Guideline for Earthquake Safe construction/building for simple
house.

National Training of Trainers (TOT) for School Earthquake
Safety Program

The program objective is to increase the awareness and preparednessof the elementary school community toward earthquake risk. The specificobjectives are:
• To raise awareness of the school society in nation wide.
• To produce Earthquake School Preparedness manuals/modules
that are endorsed by The Directorate General of Primary andSecondary Education -Ministry of National Education

66

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5•••

To prepare adequate personnel for the dissemination of themanuals through the training program.
To train teachers and representative of Teacher Training Center sothey could convey earthquake school preparedness material tostudents and community related.
To give guidance for teachers in the learning and implementation
process of earthquake school preparedness program.

The first TOT program was held in Bandung and has successfully
trained 61 potential trainers from 35 Indonesian cities, the second was heldin Lembang (Bandung) and attended by 60 participants, the third in
Bengkulu also attended by 60 participants, the fourth in Kuningan (WestJava) also attended by 60 participant, the fifth in Lembang was attended by
120 and the sixth also in Lembang with approximately 120 participants. The
total amount of teachers trained so far is far from sufficient since there arestill 200 cities that are very prone to earthquake hazards (from Zone 4, 5 and
6). The Director General himself has supported this program and stated thatit should be adopted in the school program as extra curricular activities inteaching “life skills” to students and the TOT program itself should becontinued until it reaches the substantial numbers of municipalities. This
activity is being handled by the ITB “Research Group on Disaster
Mitigation.”
5.5

National Lessons Learned Workshop for Indonesian City andDistrict Managers (Collaborate with Association of City
Government/APEKSI)The Workshop objective is:• To introduce and share the experience on disaster mitigation
activities, especially activities conducted by the City Governmentof Bandung in collaboration with IUDMP ITB.
• To introduce the concept of urban disaster mitigation, especially
earthquake disaster, and the concept of disaster risk assessment inurban areas.
The Workshop was attended by 90 participants, including speakers
and invitees, from 29 Cities and District member of APEKSI and APKASI(District Government Association of Indonesia), including some City
Mayors and Head of District Governments.
5.6

Develop and Implement Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) Procedure
for Cities in Indonesia, to Follow-Up the Demand Raised during
the Workshop

The objective of the RRA is to rapidly evaluate potential seismic
hazard and vulnerability of the cities as a risk measure of the city to seismic
disaster. More specifically, the objective of the RRA is to provide thefollowings:• Preliminary microzonation and seismic hazard maps of the cities
based on preliminary estimate of peak ground acceleration (PGA)

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

67

December 2003, Bangkok

at baserock considering effect of local ground conditions andidentification of collateral hazards.
• Qualitative vulnerability conditions of the city that may consist ofbuildings, lifelines, and population.
• Description of seismic risk of the city to seismic disaster.
• Recommendations of action plans required for seismic disastermitigation.
RRA is implemented in City of Bengkulu, Denpasar, Manado and Palu.
5.7

Development of National Strategy on Urban Disaster Mitigation(Collaborate with BAKORNAS PBP)The objective of the activity is to formulate a draft of a national policy
in Urban Disaster Mitigation leading to the institutionalization of the policy
into a legal product through a series of BAKORNAS PBP Working Group
meetings, facilitated by the IUDMP team.
The national policy follow up has successfully gained a collective
support at the national level. BAKORNAS PBP has accepted The Draft ofNational Policy on Urban Disaster Mitigation, and as a follow-up, an interministerial meeting has been held by BAKORNAS PBP for seeking acollective approval and adoption of the policies at the national level. In fact,
the policy draft was modified with the valuable inputs from almost all
participants of National Workshop, which was interdepartmentally
represented.
5.8 Preparation of a Strategic Organizational Business Plan for an ITBCenter on Disaster Mitigation and Prevention
The activity produced a document containing the needs and thestrategic plan for new research activities, i.e. the Strategic Plan for
Institutionalizing the Research Activities on Disaster Mitigation andPrevention at the Institute Technology Bandung Indonesia. In January 2003,
a center called “Research Group on Disaster Mitigation” was officiallyformed.
5.9

The Extension Phase of IUDMP (January – December 2004)

There is a plan to extend the IUDMP implementation in Indonesia
through a support from USAID-OFDA, in the framework of AUDMPExtension. The focus of this phase (Phase IV) is on consolidating the resultof the preceding IUDMP phases, in particular on ensuring the sustainabilityof the processes and products, while taking into account the changes
occurring induced by the devolution and decentralization processes in the
country. The effort will be directed at working with the local government
institutions as well as various NGOs interested in the advocacy for disastermitigation, in particular those working with the communities inreconstructing their damaged houses and public buildings in the war-conflictarea in some parts of Indonesia.

68

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

6.

UNCRD POST EARTHQUAKE SCHOOL SAFETY PROGRAM

As part of its replication program, using the window of opportunity
provided by the event of the June 2000 Bengkulu earthquake, the IUDMPITB collaborated with United Nations Center for Regional Development(UNCRD) has proposed a post earthquake school safety program in
Bengkulu City. The UNCRD at that time was promoting the school
earthquake safety project in the Asia-Pacific and the active role of the local
community in constructing school buildings that are safe from earthquake
hazards.
The program was initially planned to emphasize on full community
based for school safety, however, at that time, sweeping moves were
underway to rapidly devolve political and fiscal power to lower levels ofgovernment. Law 22/199 deals with political autonomy and Law 25/1999
deals with fiscal balance power between central government and the regions.
This autonomy policy strongly emphasizes on the community participatory
in most aspect of the development of the region. However, due to many
internal and external factors, such as the political, financial, social, culture
and economic condition, the transition process will be much longer than it isexpected.
Because of that, the UNCRD-ITB school safety program in Bengkulu
City were adjusted to suit the existing conditions, such as the current
practice of top down approach in providing the school buildings andfacilities in Indonesia. Thus, the program implementation was then directed
toward the twofold aim. First was to raise the school community awareness.
Second was to have a post earthquake school reconstruction program which
covered evaluation on damaged schools, analysis of construction design,
training for increasing technical skill of selected group of people and thefield inspection.
The overall aim of the efforts on post earthquake school reconstruction
program were to introduce the techniques for constructing earthquake
resistant school buildings and repair, retrofitting, and strengthening ofearthquake damaged school buildings to technical personnel involved
directly in reconstruction and rehabilitation phase of earthquake damage in
Bengkulu through such activities: field inspection, evaluation on damaged
schools, analysis of construction design, training and inspection.
The evaluation of damaged school buildings was done through thereconnaissance field inspection. As the typical problem of school buildingsin Indonesia, most damage were mainly due to some classical matter, i.e.
poor detailing shown in shop drawing, poor quality of construction material,
poor workmanship, lack of supervision during the construction and lack ofmaintenance during the operation of the building.
Based on the above assessment, analysis of construction design was
conducted on one of the public elementary school, i.e. SDN 62. A set ofredesign drawings was produced, which can be used for the purpose of

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

69

December 2003, Bangkok

retrofitting and/or strengthening the damaged school building or for thereconstruction of the whole building. These multi purpose redesign
drawings were expected to be able to accommodate the existing city
program on relief and rehabilitation, since there were many significant
donors who were willing to fund the reconstruction damaged schoolbuildings. The success story of implementing the design was that at thismoment the drawings were replicated for many school rehabilitations in
Bengkulu city and province.
The initiatives in increasing the knowledge and technical skills ofschool safety were conducted through two series of training. First training
program emphasized on the raising of knowledge and know-how of thestrengthening and reconstructing the damaged school buildings, meanwhile
the second training emphasized specifically to increase the technical skillsof the selected group of community who were involved in the Bengkulu city
the post earthquake school rehabilitation program.
After the UNCRD sponsored project finished, the drawings provided
by the team were adopted for the repair of damaged and construction of newschool buildings throughout Bengkulu. The team in collaboration with the
University of Bengkulu was assigned to repair, reconstruct ten schoolbuildings and mosque funded by a private Indonesian TV station Indosiar
and one by Gulf Oil. Apart from that, many other school buildings were
repaired and reconstructed based on the drawings provided by the team, but
funded by private institutions.

7.

INDONESIAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATIONThe economic and political situation remains very unsettled.
Indonesia has gone through a period of much turmoil. The financial andeconomic crises persist. The new democracy is also undergoing growing
pains and there remains much tension between different segments of thepolitical body. To this has been added the unrest in various parts of thecountry that has further exacerbated the economic situation and has madedisaster management very difficult.
In many ways, nevertheless, it is remarkable how much is going on in
the face of this turmoil. This is a testament to the basic strength of theIndonesian people. It is also a portent, we believe, for better times in the
future if the unrest can be overcome.
For the present, the turmoil has had an impact on the focus of disastermanagement activities in general. In addition, since 1999, there has been an
ongoing movement toward fundamental changes in the relationships
between central and local government levels. In May, 1999, the Parliament(DPR) passed two laws. The two laws created a legal framework for
devolution of political and fiscal power.

70

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Law 22/1999, on regional autonomy, deals with "political autonomy."Law 25/1999, on fiscal balance between the central government and regions.
Both Laws 22/1999 and 25/1999 were drafted with relatively open language
to be refined through corresponding implementing regulations.
Two ministerial decrees have also been issued under the umbrella of
the reform process in support of the decentralization process. Along withLaw 22/1999, President decree (Keppres) No. 49/2000 sets guidelines forthe establishment of the Board for Development of Regional Autonomy(DPOD) which includes local government representation through theirassociations and local parliaments.
The Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA) issued KepMen No. 16/2000
which provides support for the development of independent local
government associations and sets the procedures for selecting theassociation representatives who will sit on the DPOD.
In summary, decentralization in Indonesia is an on-going and dynamic
process. It can be expected that many changes will yet occur in the extent towhich political and fiscal power is devolved. At present, it can be presumed
that local governments will emerge with considerably greater autonomy
than in the past, particularly for those functions typically associated withurban management, such as delivery of urban services and infrastructuredevelopment. Local governments also appear highly likely to gain far
greater authority of expenditure of block-type transfers from the central
government; but this reliance on central government transfers does create
some limitations for local governments. Lastly, the development of new
local government associations will help support and sustain thedecentralization process by advocating for improved local governance andby improving the professionalism of local officials.
This is a period of transition and it is likely that it will be some time
before the shape of responsibilities and relationships are clear. In any
process of decentralization this is normal. In the meantime, resources
remain very limited at both the local and national levels, due to theeconomic crisis. There is also considerable uncertainty concerning thedivision of responsibilities and the capacity of local government toundertake its new responsibilities, both financially and in human resource
terms. Until this decentralization process is fully settled, disaster mitigation
activities in Indonesia most probably will not be a priority.

REFERENCES
1.
2.

Anonym, November 1999. Report of UNESCO Project on Education
Material Development.
Anonym, December 2000. Report of Indonesian Ministry of
Research and Technology in Bengkulu for the Reconstruction andRehabilitation Program.

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Activities in Indonesia

71

December 2003, Bangkok

3.

4.
5.

6.
7.
8.

9.
10.
11.

12.

13.
14.

15.

16.
17.
18.

72

Anonym, November 2000. Report of the UNCRD & IUDMP-ITB
Training Program on Earthquake Resistant Building in the City of
Bengkulu.
Anonym, September 2000. Project Completion Report of theIndonesian Urban Disaster Mitigation Project, ITB-ADPC
Anonym, December 2002. Project Completion Report of theIndonesian Urban Disaster Mitigation Project: Replication of Urban
Disaster Mitigation Initiative, ITB-ADPC
Boen, T., Impact of Earthquake on School Building in Indonesia.
Boen, T. Report on the Damage and Repair of the Bengkulu
Earthquake of June 4, 2000, Teddy Boen Konsultan (in Indonesian).
Boen,T., T.C. Pan, K. Megawati, J.M.W. Brownjhon, and C.L. Lee.
Report on the Bengkulu Earthwuake on the Bengkulu (Southeran
Sumatra) Earthquake of June 2000 (Mw 7.7), School of Structure
Civil Engineering, Nanyang Technology University.
Department of Civil Engineering ITB, Bengkulu Earthquake Survey
Report June 2000.
Firmansyah, J. and M. Irsyam, 1999. Development of Seismic
Hazard Map for Indonesia, Department of Civil Engineering ITB.
GSHAP, 1999. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program(GHSAP) 1992-1999, Annuali di Geofisica. Summary Volume,edited by D. Giardini, 957-1230.
Mayor of Bengkulu City and Pribadi, 29-31 January 2001. The
Earthquake Disaster in Bengkulu. UNCRD International Workshop
on Earthquake Safer World in the 21st Century, Kobe.
Mujiman, November 2000. Report of Technical Training for
Craftmen on the Earthquake Resistant Building in Bengkulu city.
Petersen, M.D., et al (USGS), 2000. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and Across the Malaysian
Peninsula.
Pribadi, K.S. and H.P. Rahayu, June 1999. Raising Public
Awareness in Urban Disaster Mitigation: Case Study of Bandung
City, Indonesia. IDNDR Paris Conference, Paris-France.
Rahayu, H.P., et al., November 1999. Development of Earthquake
Education Material. UNESCO Project, Report.
Rahayu, H.P., et al, May 2000. Implementation of Education
Campaign Program in Bandung. IUDMP Project Report.
Shah, H.C., and T. Boen, April 1996. Seismic Hazard Model for
Indonesia. Proceeding HAKI Conference 1997.

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia and the Pacific Region

SEISMOLOGICAL ACTIVITIESIN MYANMAR
M. SOE and H. H. MYO
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Myanmar1.

INTRODUCTION

Myanmar is situated on the boundary of Alpide-Himalayan
Earthquake Belt where devastating earthquakes had occurred from time totime and there is obviously the seismic risk in and near the country. The
earthquakes in this Alpine-Himalayan region have resulted in massive lossof life and untold suffering. The Alpine-Himalayan earthquake zone,
extending from the Mediterranean Sea to the Andaman Sea, is characterized
by a widely diffused continental region encompassing young mountain
ranges. These mountains owe their existence to large compressive forces
resulting from collision of Indian plate and Eurasia Plate and are mostly
associated with shallow earthquakes.
A geological collision between Indian subcontinental plate and the restof Eurasia Continental plate on which Myanmar stands and the collision isstill in progress. The world highest mountains, Himalayas rise abruptly fromthe flat, densely populated Ganges Plain in the northern India and shield the
Tibatan plateau from the seasonally shifting monsoon winds of southern
Asia.
As an example of its current effects of collision, we believed the greatearthquake that occurred in the region was the result of forces originated in
the collision area. Even in Myanmar, the moderate seismically active
country, the Bago earthquake of 5 May 1930 caused the loss of about 500
lives at Bago and 50 lives at Yangon with major destruction at Bago andsome destruction at Yangon. The Sagaing earthquake of 16 July 1956
caused damages to religious edifices and buildings at Sagaing and about 40
lives were lost. The Pagan earthquake of 8 July 1975 caused destruction to
many historical monuments at Pagan and 2 lives were lost. It was really theuntold religious heritage losses to its people. The Tagaung earthquake of 5
January 1991 caused moderate destruction to the surrounding area. The
Taungdwingyi earthquake of 21 September 2003 caused landslide,liquefaction, sand Eurption. Some horistorical pagodas, schools and houses
destroyed at Taungdwingyi and neighbouring areas. 7 lives were lost. A listof some of the strong earthquakes that occurred in Myanmar is given intable 1.
The population of Myanmar is over 50 millions and most of thepeople live along and near the Central Belt's area. This main active fault
runs north to south passing near by Yangon, Bago, Pyay, Naung U,

97

December 2003, Bangkok

Mandalay and Monywa. The establishment of a strong motion network in
Myanmar aim towards understanding the level and type of seismic hazard,
reducing the impact of future earthquakes and encourage the on-going
activity for earthquake disaster prevention in Myanmar.

2.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

The department of Meteorology and Hydrology, D.M.H is responsible
for all tasks related to the works for Mitigation and prevention of natural
disasters including Earthquake monitoring. The seismological works
performed by D.M.H are routine observation and analysis of seismologicalrecord and providing information for the general public and related
department for mitigation and prevention of earthquake disasters as well as
providing earthquake events, strength and frequently experience area within
Myanmar, to related project such as construction. Those tasks and services
are performed as near real time and continuous for 24 hours every day.
Whenever earthquake may occur within Myanmar as well as worldwide area
detected at D.M.H stations, D.M.H provides those information to
government organization and mass media.

3.

PAST AND PRESENT SEISMOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (D.M.H) has
introduced seismological monitoring activities since 1963.
The first seismograph instrument was established in Myanmar since
Pre Second World War. This is a pendulum type of earthquake recorder(seismoscope) installed at the university of Yangon. It was ceased during thewar.
The D.M.H introduced it’s first seismograph was a WILLMORE and
SPENGNETHER (U.S.A) in 1963 at Yangon and 1966 at Mandalay. Since
the instrument uses photo-paper, as a hard copy, it was very hard to obtainreal time event.
The next generation seismograph, was visual recording seismograph(Katsujima-Japan) installed in D.M.H Yangon as well as Mandalay in 1977.
Katsnjima Long period seismograph was installed at Yangon in 1984.
Also Katsnjima solar powered seismograph installed at Sittwe in 1984 andat Dawei in 1985 as well.
The next one is a digital strong motion seismograph (K2) in 1995.
Ten sets of Modern Strong motion Accelerohraphs, ETNA SI, kindly
donated by OYO Coporation, Japan through WSSI was installed at ten
stations in Myanmar during the year 2001-2002.

98

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Two sets of digital seismographs have been installed in DMH
Headquarter (Yangon) and Mandalay in April 2003, which were donated by
Yunnan Seismological Bureau, People Republic of China. Out of these two,the one from Mandalay station is directly connected to Beijing (China
Seismological Bureau – CSB) through VSAT communication.

4.

WSSI ACTIVITIES IN MYANMAR

The first High Level Meeting was held in the Department ofMeteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar, jointly sponsored by WSSI
and DMH on 7th to 8th December, 1999. At this meeting, OYO corporation
kindly donated 10 sets of Strong Motion Accelerographs through WSSI toestablish a Strong Motion Network in Myanmar. For the installation ofaccelerographs, the Workshop and Seminar on Strong Motion Network washeld in Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) again which was
jointly sponsored by WSSI and DMH on 29th to 30th September, 2000. Afterthat Workshop and Seminar, 10 sets of strong motion accelerographs were
installed by guidance of DR.MASUDA and two personals from DMH who
were trained at Japan for two weeks on the training course on Installation of
the Bore Hole Type Accelerometer and Operation of the Strong Motion
Recorder. Another Introductory course on the effects of earthquakes washeld in Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar in
18th May, 2001. Earthquake course was held in DMH on 24th-28th February
2003 again.
All these above mentioned workshop, seminar and meeting, there
were many participants from many departments, like Department ofMeteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar Earthquake Society (MES),
Yangon and Mandalay City Development Committee(YCDC and MCDC),
Public Works Department, Human Settlement and Housing Department etc,
and participants from Universities attended and discussed about the publicawareness and preparedness for earthquake disaster prevention.
Ten sets of strong motion accelerographs were completely installed atten stations, Yangon, Paethin, Sittwe, Pyay, Mandalay, Bago, Monywa,
Nyaung U, Myitkyina and Meiktila.The locations of ten sets of strong
motion accelerographs are shown in table 2 and the seismological stations in
Myanmar are shown in Fig. (1).

5.

RECENT STATUS OF 10 SETS OF STRONG MOTIONACCELERLOGRAPHS

5.1

Yangon Station

The strong motion accelerograph (ETNA-SI-879) has been installed at
Yangon station on 16.12.2002. From the installation time to now, theadjustment of threshold values have been made many times. Strong motion
accelerograph never recorded the events. The noise level of Yangon station

Seismological Activities in Myanmar99

December 2003, Bangkok

is too high. And then, all three components (North-South component(L),Vertical component(V) and East-West component(T))are off set. Now
Yangon station is under repairing with guidance of Dr. Masuda.
5.2 Pathein Station
The installation of the strong motion accelerograph (ETNA-SI-877)
has been finished at Pathein Station on 20.12.2000. Till now, the thresholdvalue was setting by (0.08) for three channels. Auto Voltage Power Supply
was out of order on 30th May 2001. Now it has been already repaired During
the operational period, there were no recorded events.
5.3

Sittwe Station

The strong motion accelerograph was completely installed at Sittwe
station on 3.2.2001. The threshold value for three channels was (0.04) each.
There were two recorded event on19.10.2001 and 13.9.2002. Strong motion
accelerograph from Meiktila also detected the first event and the strong
motion accelerograph from Bago also recorded the second event. These
events (TV001.evt & WT001.evt) are shown in Fig. (2) and (3).
Sr.
No.
1
2

Date
2001/10/19
2002/09/13

Maximum
Acceleration
8.3Gal
0.9Gal

Phase
P,S
S

S-P
18sec

5.4 Pyay Station
The installation of strong motion accelerograph had been completed at
Pyay station on 16.4.2001. The threshold value for three channels was(0.06) each. During three years, there were four recorded events from thisstation. These events (DX007.evt, Vg001.evt, Eb001.evt & Eb002.evt) are
shown in Fig.(4), (5) ,(6) and (7).
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4

Date
2001/10/07
2003/01/17
2003/09/21
2003/09/21

5.5

Mandalay Station

Maximum
Acceleration
6.2Gal
1.9Gal
14.3Gal
1.5Gal

Phase
S
P,S
P,S
S

S-P

12sec
16sec

Strong motion accelerograph was completely installed at Mandalay
station on 6.11.2000. The threshold value for each channel was (0.04).
During the operational period of three years, there were 3 recorded eventson 31.5.2001 (DI001.evt), 8.7.2001 (EJ001.evt) and 21.8.2001 (EM001.evt).
All these events are shown in Fig. (8), (9)& (10).

100

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Sr.
No.
1
2
3

Date
2001/05/31
2001/07/08
2001/08/21

5.6

Bago Station

Maximum
Acceleration
2.0Gal6.2Gal
1.4Gal

Phase
P,S
P,S
P,S

S-P
2sec
2sec
13sec

Strong motion accelerograph was completely installed at Bago station
on 14.8.2001. At first, the threshold value for three channels had been set
with (0.08) each. Later, we adjusted the threshold value again for 3 channels(0.08, 0.04, 0.08). Finally, the threshold value for three channels was (0.04)
each. There were 6 events from Bago station. These events (JK006.evt,
NS005.evt, XH002.evt, Ap001.evt, At001.evt & At002.evt) are shown in
Fig. (11), (12), (13), (14), (15) & (16).
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6

Date
2002/08/18
2002/09/13
2002/11/16
2003/03/26
2003/09/21
2003/09/21

5.7

Monywa Station

Maximum
Acceleration
1.6Gal
1.0Gal
1.0Gal
2.3Gal
5.2Gal
1.0Gal

Phase
P,S
S
P,S
S
P,S
S

S-P
14sec
10sec
27sec

The 2nd time installation of strong motion accelerograph was finishedat Monywa station on 6.6.2001. The threshold value was (0.06). There wereno recorded events during the operational period.
5.8 Nyaung U Station
The installation of strong motion accelerograph at Nyaung U station
was finished on 30.7.2001. The threshold value was (0.08) each. There wereseven recorded events. One of these events (DJ017.evt) was recorded from
SMA and three analog seismograph stations (Yangon, Mandalay & Sittwe).
These events (Dj015.evt, Dj016.evt, Dj017.evt, Di014.evt, Di015.evt,
Dn003.evt & Dn004.evt) are shown in Fig. (17), (18), (19), (20), (21), (22)
& (23).
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Date
2001/09/29
2001/10/07
2002/04/06
2002/11/18
2002/12/09
2003/09/21
2003/09/21

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

Maximum
Acceleration
4.0Gal
1.9Gal
2.6Gal4.8Gal
5.6Gal
11.1Gal1.8Gal

Phase
P,S
P,S
P,S
P,S
P,S
P,S
S

S-P
6sec
11sec
10sec
6sec
5sec
22sec

101

December 2003, Bangkok

5.9

Myitkyina Station

Strong motion accelerograph at Myitkyina station was completely
installed on 1.6.2001. The threshold value for each channel was (0.08).
There was an earthquake on 3.9.2002 (JB001.evt) which Mandalay analog
seismograph also detected. This recorded event is shown in Fig (24).
Sr.
No.
1

Date
2002/09/03

Maximum
Acceleration
14.7Gal

Phase

S-P

P,S

5sec

5.10 Meiktila Station
The strong motion acceleragraph had been installed at Meiktila station
on 7.8.2001. The threshold value was (0.08). The Auto Voltage Power
Supply (APS) was out of order on 9.5.2002 to 25.7.2003. From theinstallation time to now, there were recorded two events. These recorded
events (Gy009.evt&Hm001.evt) are shown in Fig (25) & (26).
Sr.
No.
1
2

Date
2001/10/19
2003/09/21

Maximum
Acceleration
1.7Gal
22.4Gal

Phase
S
P,S

S-P

13sec

In 21 September 2003, (4) stations out of (10) stations were recorded
the strong earthquake of Taung Dwin Gyi in Myanmar. It is indicating thatthose not functioning (6) stations have to repair or calibrate. In order toresume the defected stations we would like to request from respective
company or agency’s advise. Since we had already carried out the thresholdsetting with our best knowledge, the defected equipments are still notsatisfaction.

6.

REMOTE READING NETWORK

Although Myanmar PSTN (Public Switch telephone Network) arereliable for facsimile, Internet modem and dial-up PC modem Network, the
SMA network is still not function. We guess that the AT command string,
we already tried is not fit for those used between modem-PSTN line andseismo configuration. In this regards particular setting for the equipment isalso requested.

7.

TRAINING, AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS PROGRAM

DMH was collaborated with UNDP under UNDP/Integrated
Community Development project for the Hazard Reduction Training
Workshop on 21st to 23rd August, 2003 in the Deltaic area and landslide and102

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Erosion Training workshop on 15th November, 2003 in the southern Shan
State.
In 2004, DMH will implement the Human Resources Development
course on Natural Disaster (Level 1, Level 2, Level 3) jointly sponsoredwith Dagon University.

8.

FUTURE PLANS FOR NEXT 5 YEARSDMH of Myanmar and its relationships with WSSI has graduallyprogressed of Meeting, Workshop, Seminar and Valuable lectures by WSSI.
Myanmar has also been very fortunate in the progress of theseismological division of DMH, from the assistance and guidance of the
WSSI.
For the future progress of the DMH of Myanmar with accelerographstations, it is essential that we promote our communication system to
implement a Strong Motion Network.
The future plan is intended to remedy the prevailing weakness incommunication system and generating advanced technicians in the years
ahead as per priority given below:(1) Training for advance data analysis for Strong Motion
Accelerographs.
(2) Training for maintenance of accelerographs.
(3) The guidance of an expertise.
(4) To provide spare parts and accessories for Strong Motion
Acceleragraphs.
(5) Trainings for short term and long term in Seismology and
Earthquake Engineering.
(6) To draw the microzonation map and building code for Myanmar
with the guidance of WSSI.

9.

CONCLUSIONThe Taungdwingyi Strong Earthquake magnitude 6.7 had occurred on
21.09.2003. For this event, Bago, Pyay, Meiktila and Nyaung U stations
recorded. The maximum acceleration of these four stations are 5.2 gal, 14.3
gal, 22.4 gal and 11.1gal respectively. During the operational period of three
years, there were 25 recorded events from seven stations (Bago, Pyay,
Mandalay, Meiktila, Myitkyina, Nyaung U and Sittwe). There were norecorded events from three stations (Yangon, Pathein and Monywa).
Recently, civil engineering students from Yangon Institute of Technology
are applying some of these recorded events to draw the earthquake resistantdesign by computing the base shear. The recorded events will be useful forfurther study in seismology field and earthquake engineering field. The
Strong Motion Network now consists of only ten stations in a wide area.

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

103

December 2003, Bangkok

Therefore, there are more chance to apply in research works than theearthquake information issue by using the recorded events.
The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is now trying topromote our communication system to link the stations as a network. DMH
is the national agency responsible for seismological to meet therequirements of the nation and its people. It also takes responsible toimplement a strong motion network project.
This project provides us a great opportunity to study and learn themodernized strong motion accelerographs and the advanced technicalknowledge. The future guidance of World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI)
will always be a great assistance to the progress of our department. DMH istrying the best to successfully complete the establishment of the strong
motion network in Myanmar.
Table 1: List of strong earthquakes in Myanmar
Sr.
No.

Date

Magnitude(Richter
Scale)

Remarks

1
2

23-05-1912
06-03-1913

21.00
17.00

97.00
96.50

8.0
7.0

17.00

96.50

7.0

19-01-1929
08-08-1929
16-12-1929
05-05-1930

25.90
19.25
25.90.
17.00

98.50
96.25
98.50
96.50

7.0
7.0
7.0
7.3

8

03-12-1930

18.00

96.50

7.3

9

27-01-1931

25.60

96.80

7.3

10
11

12-09-1946
15-08-1950

23.50
28.50

96.00
96.50

7.5
8.6

12

16-07-1956

22.00

96.00

7.0

13

08-07-1975

21.50

94.70

6.8

14

05-01-1991

23.48

95.98

7.1

15

22-09-2003

19.94

95.72

6.7

North of Taunggyi, serious landslide''Hti" of Shwe-maw-daw Pagoda
grounded''Hti" of Shwe-maw-daw Pagoda
grounded
Brick buildings destroyed at Htaw-Gaw
Railway lines destroyed at Swa
Landslide at Htaw-Gaw
Many houses destroyed, 500 killed inBago. Some houses destroyed, 50
killed in Yangon
Some houses destroyed, about 30 killed
in Phyu.
Brick buildings collapse, landslide at
Kar-mine
Pagoda collapse at Ta-gaung
Under the influence of Assamearthquake, Chindwin river at Mawlaik
and Kalewa, Ayeyarwady river at
Aunglan flow upstream
Pagoda & buildings at Sagaing
destroyed, about 40 killed. Sagaing
bridge moved slightly.
Many historical pagodas destroyed 2
killed near Bagan.
Landslide & some buildings destroyed
at Tagaung, Hti-gaint, Kawlin andThabeikyin and surrounding area . 2
killedLandslide, liquefaction and sandEruption. Pagodas, some bridges,
houses and schools destroyed at
Taungdwingyi and surrounding areas. 7
killed.

305-07-1917

4
5
6
7

104

Epicenter
Latitude Longitude
(ºN)
(ºE)

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Table2: Information about strong motion network stations
Sr. No1Lat. Log. Height
Feet Telephone°N°E Meters
Mandalay 21°59' 96°06' 78
257 02/39120

2

Yangon16°54' 96°10'

20

61.25

663514√16-12-2000

Alluvial

10' 6"

3

Pathein16°46' 94°46'

413042/24377

X

20-12-2000

Alluvial

13' 10"4

Sittwe20°08' 92°53'516043/21168√

3-2-2001

Sandy Soil

10'

5

Pyay

18°48' 95°13'

38

124

053/21116√

16-4-2001

Hard Soil

10'

6

Myitkyina 25°22' 97°24'

145

475

074/22346√

1-6-2001

Hard Soil

10'

7

Monywa22°06' 95°08'

81

245

071/21031√

6-6-2001

Sandy Soil

11' 6"

8

NyaungU

21°12' 94°55'

61

200

062/70254√

30-7-2001

Sand Stone

7'

9

Meiktila

20°20' 95°50'

214

703

064/21120√

7-8-2001

Hard Soil

10'

17°20' 96°30'

931

052/21095X

24-8-2001

Alluvial

10'

Station

10 Bago√Borehole
Depth
6-11-2000 Lime Stone
2' 5"

CHI
NA
Mony

Manda
l
Meikt
il

Nyaun
U

Sitt

Foundation

Myitky
i

INDI
A

BANG
LA

Date

S.S.B

LA
OS

Py
BAY
OF
BENG

Ba
Path
i

Yang

GULF
OF
MARTA

THAILAD

Analog SeismographStti
AccelerographStations
Digital Seismograph
St ti

Figure 1: Seismological stations in Myanmar

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

105

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 2: 2001/10/19 07:04:30 UTC at Sittwe

Figure 3: 2002/09/13 22:31:00 UTC at Sittwe

106

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 4: 2001/10/07 14:43:40 UTC at Pyay

Figure 5: 2003/01/17 02:53:43 UTC at Pyay

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

107

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 6: 2003/09/21 18:16:30 UTC at Pyay

Figure 7: 2003/09/21 18:20:20 UTC at Pyay

108

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 8: 2001/05/31 21:46:50UTC at Mandalay

Figure 9: 2001/07/08 20:05:00UTC at Mandalay

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

109

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 10: 2001/08/21 20:17:30UTC at Mandalay

Figure 11: 2002/08/18 21:07:30UTC at Bago

110

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 12: 2002/09/13 22:30:40UTC at Bago

Figure 13: 2002/11/16 16:55:50UTC at Bago

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

111

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 14: 2003/03/26 02:58:00UTC at Bago

Figure 15: 2003/09/21 18:17:00UTC at Bago

112

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 16: 2003/09/21 18:17:00UTC at Bago

Figure 17: 2001/09/29 17:44:00UTC at Nyaung U

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

113

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 18: 2001/10/07 10:01:40UTC at Nyaung U

Figure 19: 2002/04/06 07:41:10UTC at Nyaung U

114

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 20: 2002/11/18 21:59:40UTC at Nyaung U

Figure 21: 2002/12/09 08:05:40UTC at Nyaung U

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

115

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 22: 2003/09/21 18:16:30 UTC at Nyaung U

Figure 23: 2003/09/21 18:18:50 UTC at Nyaung U

116

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 24: 2002/09/03 21:37:30UTC at Myitkyina

Figure 25: 2001/10/19 07:05:20UTC at Meiktila
Figure 25: 2001/10/19 07:05:20UTC at Meiktila

Seismological Activities in Myanmar

117

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 26: 2003/09/21 18:16:20UTC at Meiktila

Mr. S. Han, Ms. H. H. Myo and Mr. M. Soe from Myanmar
presenting the Seisomological Activities in Myanmar

118

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

EXPERIENCES OF EARTHQUAKE RISKMANAGEMENT IN NEPAL
A. M. DIXIT and B. H. PANDEY
National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)
Nepal

ABSTRACTThe World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) was one of the firstmovements that provided significant influence and encouragement to the
local efforts for achieving earthquake safety that were started in Nepal after
the Udayapur Earthquake of 1988, which caused significant damage ineastern Nepal. One of such positive influences was the creation of the
National Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal (NSET) that has
successfully implemented, in cooperation with national, regional, andinternational organizations, several successful programs of earthquake risk
management including risk assessment, action planning, andimplementation of risk reduction measures. Success of NSET programs lies
in appropriate adaptation of methodologies available worldwide to suit
local conditions and implementation of the risk management programs withmaximum participation of the local communities. As a result of thecollective efforts, remarkable achievements have been made in terms of a)enhanced earthquake awareness at all levels, b)visible improvement inseismic safety in new construction in Kathmandu, c) incorporation by thenational and local governments seismic safety consideration in policy andlegal framework, d) increased number of institutions implementing seismic
safety program leading to participation in such initiatives by everincreasing mass of population at risk, and e)enhanced image of NSET as acredible non-government organization.
The paper describes in more details the methods and replicable
results of the successful earthquake risk reduction initiatives, and points out
the new challenges that need to be tackled for sustaining the achievements
and widening the outreach in the country and the region.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Efforts towards earthquake risk management started being
implemented in Nepal rather late. Despite the fact that systematic geologicalstudies started being conducted in Nepal as early as the 1930s, Nepal was
rather late in realizing the earthquake threat that the country is exposed to.
While the 1988 Udayapur Earthquake awakened the Nepalese professionals
to the need to develop organized approaches to mitigate the risk, thecreating of the World Seismic Safety Initiative was instrumental in helping

119December 2003, Bangkok

Nepal to start a series of initiatives towards earthquake risk management at
the government, academic and non-governmental sectors.
This paper presents an account of the significant progress made in
Nepal towards improving earthquake safety in the last decade giving detailsof the methodologies and the results obtained. The accomplishments pertain
to institutional capacity enhancement, development of practicalmethodologies in hazard and risk assessment, and also in developing
appropriate approaches and mechanisms for the implementation of seismic
risk reduction strategies and programs. The following positive changes
could be emphasized:• There has been a remarkable change in terms of policies,
especially in the are of building code development andimplementation• The level of earthquake awareness in the population isremarkably enhanced in areas where people and agencies wereactive in the past decade. It indicates towards a very highpotential of bringing in change in other parts of the country also.
• The demand for earthquake-resistant construction is growing –house-owners are influencing the municipal authorities to include
seismic safety in the building permit process. The importance ofsuch change in peoples’ attitude towards earthquake safety
becomes obvious when one considers that it is taking place at atime when there was no significant devastating earthquake in
Kathmandu in the past several decades.
• More and more institutions are implementing earthquake risk
management actions as their regular agenda
With these successes, the challenge now is to continue the momentum
so that the lessons learned could be utilized on a larger scale so as toimprove earthquake performance in many more number of urban andurbanizing settlements in Nepal and the adjacent areas. The problem isenormous given the rapid growth of the urbanizing settlements in the
country. In the existing settlements, such as the core areas of Kathmandu,
the problem appears to be almost hopeless. However, successful cases ofeffective awareness raising, and achieved positive changes in the mindset ofpeople, provides certain level of optimism on the possibility of vulnerability
reduction even in old cities such as Kathmandu.
While these changes are very positive, they are just the start. There is
still much to be done. There are several challenges to be met. A decade ago,the concerned professionals and agencies were at their wit’s end especiallyafter the 1988 Udayapur Earthquake. Now, the same people and agencies
know how things can be improved and are implementing programs that
include disaster mitigation. They know and are better convinced on the truthof what WSSI propagated – the time to act is NOW!

120

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

2.

UNDERSTANDING THE SEISMIC HAZARD

The National Building Code Development Project implemented
during 1992-1994 carried out an assessment and mapping of primaryseismic hazard at the national scale so as to derive the design seismic forces
required for seismic analysis of structures (BCDP, 1994). The project also
carried out a qualitative liquefaction hazard mapping of Kathmandu Valley.
The National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET)
implemented, in association with GeoHazards International and the Asian
Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) the next significant project, theKathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP),
during 1997-2001 (NSET, 19991, NSET, 19992). KVERMP used theisoseismal map of 1934 Great Bihar-Nepal Earthquake for Kathmandu
Valley and a preliminary liquefaction susceptibility map developed by
BCDP, 1994 to make a simple loss estimate for a scenario earthquake that
could result in shaking intensities of IX MMI, similar to the 1934 event.
Later, during the implementation of the Study on Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley (SEDM), implemented by the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA), surface ground motions for
scenario earthquakes were estimated by analyzing the soil characteristics
based on drilling data and on-site survey of P and S wave velocity logging(JICA, 2002). Besides these, there are some isolated seismic hazard
assessments for hydropower development projects in the country.
While efforts were made so far by the earthquake risk reduction
programs to use the existing information on the hazard as much as possible,
there has been a clearer understanding on the need to put efforts to analyze
the details of such seismic problems as derivation of appropriate attenuation
relationship, better understanding of the phenomena of earthquake-induced
landsliding in the Himalayan environment, soil-structure interaction, basin
effect, etc. NSET has initiated preliminary dialogue with academic
institutions of Nepal and other developed countries to undertake suchstudies and researches jointly.
The Department of Mines and Geology (DMG) continues seismic
monitoring in the country using the national network of 21 short-period
seismograph stations. However, there are only 2 strong ground motion
instruments active in the country so far.
The current level of our knowledge on earthquake hazard is adequate
for developing preliminary estimates of earthquake risk for the purpose ofplanning risk reduction initiatives and improving the policy and legal
environments. More detailed researches, for example detailed mapping for
microseismic zoning, are, however, necessary in order to provide a soundscientific basis for the implementation of risk reduction measures.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

121

December 2003, Bangkok

3.

UNDERSTANDING SEISMIC VULNERABILITY AND RISK

3.1

Urban Risk Assessment of Kathmandu Valley

KVERMP carried out a simple loss estimation study for a repeat of
the 1934 earthquake in modern day Kathmandu Valley. The location andvulnerability of Kathmandu Valley’s infrastructure including the criticalfacilities was determined through interviews with about thirty institutions.
The information collected in these interviews was combined with previously
conducted studies, and then a loss estimation study was conducted using
earthquake loss models designed for use in Japan and the US such as ATC13. Although construction and maintenance of structures in Nepal varyconsiderably from those in Japan and the US, it was agreed that thesereadily available models produced useful, conservative results at a sensible
cost, considering that the main aim of the project was to promote mitigation
action rather than conduct detailed scientific or technical research. Lossestimates were conducted for the road system, the water system, theelectricity system, the telephone system, and typical structures. In addition,
possible death and injury figures were determined by looking at statistics
from previous comparable earthquakes from around the world.
A scenario document that explains the results of the earthquake loss
estimation study in layman’s terms has been written and published in
English and Nepali languages (NSET, 19991). This document includes a
description of possible damages to various vital systems in Kathmandu, andan explanation of the repercussions of this damage on life in Kathmandu
Valley.
A more detailed assessment of seismic vulnerability was done by theJapan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in cooperation with the
Ministry of Home and several Nepalese institutions under the project “TheStudy on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley,
Kingdom of Nepal” (MOHA/HMGN-JICA, 2002). It included damage
analysis of existing building stock, public facilities, and lifeline networks
Human casualty figure were also estimated for different scenario
earthquakes. The purpose of this earthquake disaster analysis was to create adisaster mitigation plan recognizing all phenomena and conditions that
could emerge following a major earthquake occurring near Kathmandu
Valley in future. Naturally, the hazard mapping was done in more detailed
and it included field surveys including subsurface exploration, social
structure surveys, limited building inventory and analyses. As a result, risk
assessment was done at the level of municipal wards.
NSET recently implemented another earthquake disaster risk
reduction initiative in close collaboration with the Kathmandu Metropolitan
City (KMC) under a UNESCO program called Cross-Cutting Transversal(CCT) Initiative of UNESCO: Earthquake Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin
America and the Pacific. It included developing several scenarios for futureearthquakes affecting the Kathmandu Valley using the simple loss
estimation RADIUS tool. The scenarios for future conditions considered the122

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

population and urban growth tendencies of Kathmandu Metropolitan City
(KMC). Current urban growth and policies were tested against such
scenarios to understand their implications in the growing levels of urban
earthquake risk. Municipal staffs themselves carried out the seismic risk
assessment with necessary support from NSET. Naturally the ownership of
the results thus obtained lies with the municipality, which fact itself becamea great motivating factor.
3.2

Urban Earthquake Risk Assessment for Other Municipal Areas

Based on the experience of KVERMP and considering the context ofsmaller cities of the country, NSET successfully piloted the “Municipal
Earthquake Risk Management Program (MERMP)” in close collaboration
with ADPC under the final phase of the Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation
Program (AUDMP). MERMP was implemented in three municipalities,
namely, Banepa (central Nepal); Dharan (eastern Nepal), and Vyas (Midwestern Nepal). MERMP included a full package of a) earthquake hazard
assessment based on secondary information, b) seismic vulnerability
assessment using current knowledge on the building construction practices,c) risk assessment by the municipal engineers and urban planners using
RADIUS tool, d) earthquake risk management action planning based on theunderstanding of the earthquake, e) implementation of the School
Earthquake Safety program in one of the schools inclusive of mason training
and earthquake preparedness planning, f) community level awarenessraising program including those focusing to use folklores, and g) organizing
Earthquake Safety Days and other awareness raising activities such as freeconsultation on earthquake-resistance construction, orientation lectures on
earthquake safety, exhibition of real size models of construction elements
such as reinforcement steel for columns and beams, etc.
MERMP for the cities resulted in collection of all available
information regarding earthquake risk of the cities in one place, analysis of
the information and presentation of the analysis results to those presumed
responsible for aspects of earthquake disaster management. Risk maps wereprepared using RADIUS tool for scenario earthquake. Interviews wereconducted with operators of urban facilities with risk map of the city, where
they were asked on the possible impact of the shaking to their facilities.
Workshops in each city were held after interviews to produce earthquake
scenario for the city that were supported and owned by the workshop
participants, the stakeholders. An action plan was then developed withcommitments of implementation expressed by the city leaders.
3.3 Detail Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Building Stock ofKathmandu Valley
While implementing KVERMP, NSET prepared the building damage
scenario empirically based on expert opinion. It was estimated that 60% of
the building in the valley would collapse in the event of a scenario
earthquake with the level of shaking similar to that of the 1934 Nepal-Bihar
Earthquake in Kathmandu. The prevalence of large stock of old masonry

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

123December 2003, Bangkok

buildings and practice of unsafe building construction without considerationof seismic requirement is the reason behind such result.
The high level of seismic vulnerability of the Kathmandu Valley
building stock was confirmed by SEDM, which concluded 54% of thebuildings will be heavily damaged in case of the repeat of the 1934
earthquake level of shaking in Kathmandu. This was done on the basis of abuilding inventory and detailed analysis of about 1200 buildings from 69
sample sites. The buildings were inventoried with details collected for over
100 characteristics including information on the owner, location, age, usage,
repair and extension history, past experiences of cracks, construction
materials and type of structure, number of stories, shape, layout, soil, andtopography. Damage analysis was made against fragility curves developed
for Nepali buildings.
3.4 Detail Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Building Stock of Other
Municipalities
Building inventories have been prepared for the municipal areas of
Dharan, Banepa, and Vyas municipalities as a component part of MERMP.
The building inventory has collected information on structural type, material,age, number of stories, configuration, provision of lateral load resisting
systems, and construction method. Visible damage to the buildings has beenrecorded in terms of its spatial distribution, and potential level of damage
estimated by using fragility curves adapted for the locality. The buildings
have been mapped in Geographic Information System (GIS).
3.5

Structural Vulnerability Assessment of Public School Buildings

One of the components of the KVERMP was the School Earthquake
Safety Program (SESP), which included a vulnerability assessment ofKathmandu Valley’s public schools as an example of how to conduct
earthquake risk mitigation projects in Nepal. The purpose of this assessment
was not to identify individual schools as vulnerable, but to quantify the risk
faced by the entire system. For the assessment, at first, the project teamcreated a questionnaire that could be filled out by school headmasters. This
questionnaire included topics such as size of buildings, density of students,
year(s) of construction, whether or not an engineer was involved in thebuilding design or construction, etc. Additionally, simple questions wereasked about structural characteristics, presented through illustrations anddescriptions. The project conducted 17 seminars with school headmasters
from 65% of the total 643 public schools in the Valley to teach them about
earthquake risk, about the necessity of planning for earthquakes in theirschool, and how to fill out the project questionnaire. Subsequently, theheadmasters conducted the survey and data on 430 schools were returned tothe project. The conclusions were extrapolated to the entire building stockof the existing public schools of Kathmandu Valley. The result ofvulnerability analysis is shown in Table 1.

124

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.6

Vulnerability Assessment of Health Facilities

Considering the high seismic risk of Kathmandu Valley as shown by
the earthquake damage scenario (over 100,000 injuries to the extent of
requiring hospitalization in case of scenario earthquake with a shaking
intensity of IX MMI!), NSET was asked by the advisors to include risk
assessment for the hospital system of Kathmandu. It was natural because
earthquake-resistant construction standards have not been effectively
applied and special guidelines have not been considered for hospital
facilities in general in Nepal. For this reason, there is a high possibility of
the hospital buildings not being functional during a large seismic event.
At this, NSET implemented two different studies to evaluate theseismic performance of the Bir Hospital. One was done in cooperation withUS Army in 1999 and the other was implemented in 2000 in collaboration
with a group of expert-volunteers from New Zealand. Both the studies
indicated towards a high level of earthquake risk for the hospital. Obviously,
it was necessary to assess the vulnerability of the entire health system of thecountry. Obviously, it was necessary to develop a system of suchassessment, as the existing methodologies would not fit in the condition ofKathmandu where data on building construction (design and as-built
drawings, reinforcement details, quality of construction materials etc.) weretotally lacking.
Later, in 2002, NSET implemented the project “Structural Assessmentof Hospitals and Health Institutions of Kathmandu Valley” jointly with theWorld Health Organization and Ministry of the Health, HMGN. The
purpose of this study was to develop/apply appropriate methodology for theevaluation of earthquake vulnerability of the medical facilities in general,and to understand the actual situation of the reliability of the medical
facilities in Kathmandu Valley, in particular. A structural engineer fromSouth America was recruited to learn from the rich experiences of the Pan
American Health Organization (PAHO).
The study included qualitative assessment of 14 hospitals ofKathmandu Valley, and a quantitative assessment of the Bir Hospital in caseof a scenario earthquake. It yielded alarming data: only 10% of hospitals
will be functional after an MMI IX intensity earthquake! The overall
performance of hospitals in different earthquakes is presented in Figure
1.The study made a strong recommendation on the urgent need of
improving earthquake resiliency of existing medical facilities in Kathmandu
Valley.
From the study, it was found that non-structural mitigation measures
are less costly but highly effective for risk reduction, and could be
implemented with resources available locally, whereas structuralinterventions would require significant external support – technically as wellas financially.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

125

December 2003, Bangkok

Table 1: Vulnerability of Public School Buildings in Kathmandu Valley
Particulars
Total number of
PublicSchools/buildings
Typologyof
traditional schoolbuildings

Details
643/1100%

Adobe (sun-dried bricks) or Earthen
Buildings (mud cake buildings)
Stone/brick masonry in mud mortar
Rectangular block (Brick or hollow concrete
block or semi-dressed stone in cement mortar)
Reinforced Concrete Frame (RC Frame)
Existing Condition Hazardous for use at present (Pull down and(withreconstruct ASAP!)
extrapolation for643 schools)
Can be saved (with structural intervention,
Retrofit, Repair and Maintain ASAP)
Good for vertical load (but not for lateralshaking), need retrofitting
Vulnerability
Collapsed Grade
Assessment (for Severe Damage or partial collapse (notintensities
IX repairable/not usable after shaking)
MSK shaking)Repairable Damage

5
56
28
11
10
15
25
65
66
11
23

In view of this, NSET started implementing, in agreement with the
Ministry of Health and with financial support from the World HealthOrganization (WHO) a detailed non-structural assessment of 10 major
hospitals of the country: 5 located inside the Kathmandu Valley, and theother 5 hospitals located outside the Valley. The study has identified priority
action for non-structural vulnerability mitigation, many virtually cost-free orat minimal costs. It is expected that implementation of the recommended
non-structural mitigation measures, which are expected to be at minimal
costs, would be started immediately.

Figure 1: Performance of Hospitals in Kathmandu

126

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.7

Vulnerability Assessment of Lifeline Facilities

NSET undertook a study for the assessment of seismic vulnerability ofthe drinking water supply system of Kathmandu city with financial
assistance from UNICEF. The work was done as a consensus project inview of high level of earthquake risk identified for the water supply stem for
Kathmandu by the KVERMP studies. Once again, NSET was confronted
with having to use methodologies applicable only for developed countries.
Therefore, significant efforts were made to develop a practical methodology
for assessing the seismic vulnerability of water supply network system, its
components, and the minimal requirement of institutional capacity wasdeveloped by adapting the Applied Technology Council ATC-25-1 (ATC,1992) tool with appropriate adjustment for Kathmandu context. Assessment
results in the form of network system damage for scenario earthquake arepresented using Geographic Information System (GIS).
Based on possible maximum enhancement of the present intuitional
capacity and spatial distribution of the possible damage extent, optimum
routes for speedy restoration of water supply services to meet a minimum
level are identified under two different scenarios i.e. 1) as it is condition,and 2) conditions of improved system. The study also presented the spatial
distribution of emergency water demand in case of earthquake event. It was
found that a large number of breakages will be in the pipeline system mainly
due to ground shaking. Very old stock of pipeline without maintenance, andnon-recognition of earthquake risk in design and construction of water
system are identified as the main causes for such pathetic situation.

4.

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

4.1

The SLARIM Project

A multidisciplinary research project “Strengthening Local Authorities
in Risk Management (SLARIM)”, aiming at the development of amethodology for spatial decision support systems for urban risk
management is being carried out in Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City, one of
the five municipalities in Kathmandu Valley. NSET joined hands with theInternational Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation(ITC), Netherlands, and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD) to develop the methodology based on the groundrealities of earthquake vulnerability reduction needs and their integration
into the municipal decision-making process. Graduate students of ITC are
involved in the research work that spans hazard assessment, vulnerabilities
conditions, social structure, and the possible use of space technology for
reducing vulnerabilities and improving the structural resistance byimplementing a sound building permit system. NSET’s experts provide
technical supervision to the research; ICIMOD provides institutional andlogistic support.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

127

December 2003, Bangkok

4.2. Joint work with Academic Institutions
NSET is in the process of entering into an understanding with the
Kathmandu University and Pokhara University for the development ofappropriate academic curricula on aspects disaster risk reduction andmanagement and earthquake engineering to be delivered at undergraduate aswell as graduate levels.
Similar projects are being explored jointly with the University ofNorth Umbria (UNU), UK to support research on social aspects of disasterrisk reduction in Nepal. Kathmandu University is also a partner. NSET willplay the role as the institution with knowledge on earthquake risk mitigation.
NSET is also working closely with the Department of Civil
Engineering of the Institute of Engineering, Tribhuwan University, for thedevelopment and initial delivery of the courses on behavior of structures todynamic loading and earthquake geotechnical engineering. Process isundergoing to develop course-curriculum on earthquake-resistantconstruction and disaster management. NSET is providing assistance inthese initiatives as resource institution.
In order to facilitate and coordinate the efforts on seismic risk
reduction in reseach, development and professional practice, NSET has
started preparing a roster of Nepalese professionals and students in the fieldof earthquake engineering and disaster management.
In all these efforts, NSET maintains close contact with Indianacademic institutions such as the IIT Powai, IIT Roorkee, and the IIT
Kanpur.

5.

PLANNING FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

Action plans for earthquake risk management have been developed for
different cities in order to address the earthquake risk estimated from theearthquake scenario development exercise under the different programs. The
following sections provide brief description of the current levels of action
plan development and implementation in different urban areas of thecountry.
5.1

Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Action Plan

An Action Plan was created by NSET, with active participation of
about 82 concerned institutions of Kathmandu, including the main
emergency response institutions and the emergency response agencies(NSET, 19992), to start the process of systematically reduce the risk overtime. The Action Planning process was a logical continuation of theearthquake hazard evaluation and risk assessment component (earthquake
damage scenario development). The Prime Minister of Nepal officiallyreleased and endorsed this plan in January of 1999, in a National Meeting

128

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

devoted to the Earthquake Safety Day. The purpose of the plan is to assist
His Majesty’s Government of Nepal, concerned agencies, and themunicipalities in Kathmandu Valley to reduce Kathmandu Valley’searthquake risk over time by coordinating and focusing risk management
activities. Ten specific initiatives were defined as high priority. As assigned
during the planning process, NSET is now tasked with the implementationof three of the initiatives of the plan, notably, a) Implementing School
earthquake Safety Program, b). Improving the safety of existing buildings
by propagating non-structural vulnerability measures, and c) awarenessraising and assisting the municipalities to implement seismic code for newbuildings. NSET is also active in aiding and promoting other initiatives of
the action Plan. A separate project, titled the Kathmandu Valley Earthquake
Risk Management Action Plan Implementation Project (APIP) is being
implemented for this with financial support fro the US Office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance (US OFDA)
5.2 Earthquake Disaster Management Plan suggested by SEDMThe SEDM proposed generation and implementation of earthquake
disaster reduction plans at different levels of the government. It wassuggested that the individual disaster management plans should be preparedat each level of government and institutions by the method of fullparticipatory planning by all stakeholders. A framework of the disastermanagement plan was recommended by SEDM as shown in Figure 2.
NSET is assisting the Ministry of Local Development (MOLD) in thedevelopment of necessary framework for the implementation of therecommendations of SEDM as much as they concern the municipalities.
Earthquake Disaster Management (EDM) Plans in Proper Sense
National Plan
1. Prime Minister's Level
2. Minister's Level Plans

5 Municipality Plans

3 District Plans

Private Plans

Excluding Municipality

Community, Enterprise etc

Areas

National Companies Plan

Plans to be refereed
National 5 year Plan

Metropolitan
Region Plan

Infastruture
Development
Plans

Urban
Development
Plans

Housing
Development Plan
and Regulation

Other Plans

Donor Agencies'
Emergency
Plans

Figure 2: Structure of Disaster Management Plans suggested by SEDM
5.3 Municipal Level Action Planning in MERMP
One of the components of the MERMP in each city was the
preparation of an action plan for reducing earthquake risk identified during

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

129

December 2003, Bangkok

the earthquake scenario development process. The action planning processes
in the cities- Banepa, Dharan and Vyas were very much participatory andserved as great awareness tool among stakeholders of the city and local
champions. As the risk reduction efforts are to be started from a scratch,
there is usually a long list of actions deemed important by the participants ofthe plan development exercise. However, it is very encouraging to note thatearthquake vulnerability reduction (EVR) measures such as building code
implementation, School Earthquake Safety Program, trainings for masonand petty-contractors for earthquake resistant construction, and awarenessraising are the common priority items in the action plans of all the threemunicipalities. The most effective outcome of the plans is thatmunicipalities already started the doable actions like certifications of trained
masons and contractors for earthquake-resistant construction, and haveadopted policy of incentives for earthquake-resistant building construction.
5.4

Kathmandu Metropolitan City Level Risk Reduction Plan

Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) prepared the earthquake risk
reduction plan under UNESCO initiative using RADIUS tool with the helpof NSET. The plan summary is presented in Table 2.
Table 2: Planning for priority Actions by KMC for Disaster Risk Reduction
Urgent Measures

MediumMedium-term Measures

Seismic Building
Code Implementation

Formulate policy andDevelop integrated plan

program for identifyingof greater city so that

open spaces and preserving

disaster free development

them

could be achieved with

Establishment ofEmergency Response
SystemDevelop and put into
effect LandLand-useuse-planconsidering
earthquake risk

Designate evacuation routes
and sites
Develop mechanism of
incentives for new
construction in designatedland and disdis-incentives tocontrol construction indense area
Control construction in highhazard area

LongLong- term measuresresource balance, density
distribution and proper
infrastructure planning
Support surrounding
village areas with
infrastructure andservices so that
population will bedispersed.
Establish linkage of city
risk reduction plan withnational development
plan(5plan(5-year plan)
Prepare disaster recovery
plan

6.

IMPLEMENTATION OF EVR MEASURES

6.1

School Earthquake Safety Program

The School Earthquake Safety Program (SESP) stared being
implemented in Kathmandu Valley as one of the components of the130

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

KVERMP. Subsequently, it has become one of the most successfulprograms of NSET.
Originally, SESP had the objectives of (i) Vulnerability assessment of
about 1100 buildings belonging to 644 public schools, and (ii)
implementation of retrofitting works in one of the schools as a pilot project.
Following the completion of the pilot project successfully, NSET continued
the program with national and international support and assisted otherschools inside and outside Kathmandu Valley to retrofit existing building
seismically or to construct a new earthquake-resistant building for theschool.
To date, the SESP has covered 15 communities. The program is being
implemented as one of the components of NSET’s Action Plan
Implementation Project (APIP) in Kathmandu, and under the Municipal
Earthquake Risk Management Program (MERMP) outside the valley. The
components of SESP, now, are: (a) Training of masons, (b) Training ofteachers, parents and students on earthquake preparedness and preparedness
planning, and (c) seismic retrofit or earthquake-resistant reconstruction of
public school buildings.
The following paragraphs provide a brief description of the mostimportant achievements of SESP.
Affordability of Seismic Improvement of School Buildings Established:
SESP has demonstrated technical and also financial feasibility: theonly requirement is the voluntary participation by the community including
the members of the school advisory and construction management
committees, donation of a fourth of the labor by the masons as in-kind
contribution, and strict adherence to the NSET’s mechanism of SESP
implementation, which ensures work as well as financial transparency. The
strict requirement usually pays off – a recent school building at Dhapakhel
of Kathmandu was completed with better quality control and reliableseismic resistance at 75% of the estimated cost for similar construction as
per the prevalent practice for public construction. This fact demonstrates
that seismic safety is not only achievable, but achievable at cost level lessthan commonly believed; provide there is participation by the community.
Raised awareness, and the increase in the confidence level of the populationin the influence areas, and the seismic resistance of new construction whichusually replicate the demonstrated elements of safety employed in theschool are added benefits.
NSET has learned a great deal in terms of the prevalent building
typologies, the inherent problems, and the likely solutions for enhancing
their structural safety. The experience gained is being consolidated in theform of a Hand Book for Seismic – Resistant Construction and Retrofittingof School Buildings in Nepal.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

131

December 2003, Bangkok

Establishment of a System of Mason Training and Curriculum
Development:
About 5-10 masons from each school communities have been trainedin the skills of seismic retrofitting, earthquake-resistant construction andquality control. One of the masons in each school site has been trained as
Trainers. These trainer masons are given the responsibilities of supervising
the construction works at other schools in future under the program. Basedon the experiences gained from the mason training, a curriculum/guideline
for Mason Training has been prepared.
Awareness Raising, Training of Teachers, Parents, and Children:
SESP is being implemented with maximum participation of thegovernment institutions (Central Region Education Directorate, District
Education offices of related Districts), District Development Committees
and Village Development Committees, the school management systems, andthe parents and the students. The government agencies provide funds andpolicy guidance, while the actual implementation of construction works ishandled by the school management committees with technical inputs andsupervision from NSET. Such implementation mechanism, together with theformation of Central -, District -, and school level advisory committees,considerably widened the outreach of the program and its ownership.
Several meetings are held with the local communities and the school
officials. NSET will continue its efforts in implementing such training
program in the schools. All this has resulted in greater awareness in thecommunities on earthquake disaster risk and risk reduction. It is seen thatnew constructions in the settlements surrounding the schools areincorporating seismic-resistant elements, mostly by consulting the SESP
masons. A strong replication potential of the program concept, and hence
sustainability of efforts, is thus evident.
Replication:
In all the villages under the direct influence of SESP (usually theadjacent village development committees), the house owners have been
replicating the construction methods employed in school building toconstruct their private houses without intervention from NSET. Except
some minor features, newly constructed houses adopt all basic earthquakeresistant construction technologies such as the seismic bands, wall stitching,vertical tensile rods etc. This fact demonstrates that the training of masonson earthquake-resistance construction is the key for achieving earthquake
safety in conditions of developing countries where more than 85% of thebuildings are non-engineered, constructed by informal mechanism with thetrust between the house-owner and the mason playing the most importantrole in making decisions related to the construction.
A rough calculation suggests that a well-trained mason who isconvinced on the methods of earthquake safety by being involved in SESP
helps create 15 new residential construction earthquake safer every year byconvincing the house-owner of the benefits.

132

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Schools are also particularly tractable for earthquake safety programs.
Schools structures are typically very simple and relatively small, unlike
other critical facilities. Therefore it is inexpensive to build new schools in an
earthquake resistant fashion and it can be affordable to retrofit existing
schools. Also, by raising awareness in schools, the entire community isreached because the lessons trickle down to parents, relatives, and friends
6.2

Awareness Raising Programs

Raising earthquake awareness is a strong component of every major
initiative undertaken by NSET in Nepal. Every activity undertaken is shaped
to raise the awareness of different groups - government officials, media,
international agencies, etc., i.e. all sections of the society: from officials anddecision-makers at the central government through the municipal and wardlevel authorities and elected representatives, to the communities in thevillages. The objectives of awareness raising are different for the different
target groups: for politicians and high officials, it to convince them of thenecessity to look at disaster risk reduction as a development issue, for thegeneral public it is enabling them to understand the risk and to identify
possible measures that could reduce the vulnerability on an incremental
basis. The awareness raising programs are designed in such a way that itmeans not only transferring of knowledge and information but alsointernalization of the knowledge, and ultimately its ownership and use, asmuch as possible, in day to day life of the common man. Some of the majorawareness raising activities is described below.
6.2.1 Earthquake Safety Day Program
At NSET’s request, His Majesty’s Government of Nepal declared
January 15 (or 16) as the Earthquake Safety Day of Nepal, and establishedan Earthquake Safety Day National Committee (ESD Nat COM) for
observing the Day annually throughout Nepal. ESD Nat COM draws
representatives from all emergency response organizations and criticalfacilities management. NSET, in coordination with the ESD Nat COM,
organizes a variety of activities that extend for many days. The main events
are the Earthquake Safety Exhibition and Symposium. Other events include
public broadcast of earthquake safety message by the Prime Minister;awareness rally through the streets; national meeting with the government
ministers; shake-table demonstration of traditional building models with andwithout seismic safety elements; children essay/painting competition; street
drama on earthquake safety, etc. Numerous publications such as information
leaflets, calendars, earthquake-resistant construction posters were
distributed to the public. At NSET's initiation, the ESD program, last year,
was observed in 10 municipalities including MERMP cities. Earlier, only
Kathmandu used to observe the main national program.
6.2.2 Radio/TV Programs
Several local radio and TV programs aired earthquake safety andpreparedness messages on a regular basis using NSET’s publications as thebasic guide for mass education. NSET also has collaboration agreements

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

133

December 2003, Bangkok

with two local FM Radios in Kathmandu and Pokhara for airing weekly 30minutes programs on earthquake safety. These are non-profit radio stations.
The Kathmandu Municipality has provided adequate time slot per
week on the national Nepal Television to broadcast a program series on
earthquake safety. The program targets the homeowners and convinces themon the possibility and affordability of making their homes earthquakeresistant, and making their family safe by learning earthquake preparedness.
NSET provides expert knowledge to the program. Increasingly, NSET
management and professionals are invited by national radio/TV channels todeliberate on aspects of earthquake risk in Kathmandu and outside.
6.2.3 Public Talks and Orientation programs
A number of public talks in earthquake safety have been organized indifferent community gatherings such as the regular meetings of Rotary
Clubs, the Scout Jamborees, trade associations etc... The number andregularity of such talk programs has increased significantly afterparticipation of Nepalese professionals in the study and reconstruction
activities the Gujarat Earthquake of 2001. We made it a point that theexperiences of Gujarat was brought to Nepal as much as possible. Such talks
that used lots of illustrations on the damage not only informed the public
about the Kathmandu Valley’s earthquake risk, but it also gave us feedbackon the concerns and perceptions of the public, which have helped us tailor
our public awareness campaign subsequently. In meetings of professionalorganizations such as the Nepal Engineers Associations, Society of
Nepalese Architects, Nepal geological Society etc, lecture sessions onearthquake are incorporated. Besides these, NSET give special orientation
classes to international communities working in Nepal upon request. The
number of such requests is increasing unprecedented. Governmentorganizations also have started to do so for technical assistance on policy
and program formulation.
NSET holds orientation program for house-owners who want toretrofit or construct their houses to be earthquake-resistant on weekly basis(every Friday afternoon) it its office. The participation is free-of-charge on
first-registered-first-chance basis because of the limited capacity of the hall.
6.3

Building Capacity of Municipalities in Seismic Code
Implementation

Through a partnering approach with other organizations andstakeholders, NSET is supporting programs for integration of seismic
resistance into the process of new construction, improving seismic
performance of existing buildings, and in increasing the experts' knowledgeof the earthquake phenomenon, vulnerability, consequences and mitigation
techniques. In collaboration with the National Forum for Earthquake Safety(NFES), NSET is supporting the Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City (LSMC)
by providing regular orientation programs to house-owners, and byproviding technical assistance to municipality for preparing guidelines for
streamlining the building permit process. This was done following LSMC’s

134

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

decision to implement provisions of the Nepal National Building Code since
January 2003. This was declared open during the celebrations of the
Earthquake Safety Day 2003. The following Figure 3 shows the frameworkof building code implementation in LSMC. Following suit, the Kathmandu
Metropolitan City as well as other municipal organization are determined to
implement the building code on mandatory basis, and are doing preparatory
works of implementing the code as their bye-laws. NSET is providing
technical assistance in this process.
LSMC

National Society for Earthquake Technology

BOARD

Awareness for House
OwnersEngineering Community

Building Code
Implementation

Training

Eq. Safety comt.

Design
Sup.

•ESD
•SESP
•PUBLICATIONS•RADIO•MASON TRAINING

Public Awareness throughmedia

National Forum for Earthquake
Safety (NFES)

PublicFigure 3: Building code implementation framework in LSMC
6.4

Grass-roots level training programs

Apart from the mason training programs conducted by NSET as a partof the School Earthquake Safety Program, The government department of
Housing and Urban Development (DHUD) implements mason training
programs in different parts of the country periodically. Although the numberof trainees is relatively small, the curricula developed for the training isuseful for any other agency that could be interested in such program
implementation.
NSET also provides specialized training programs for the petty
contractors and builders on aspects of earthquake-resistant construction. It
has been found that a walk-over along the municipal area with the builders
who were involved in the major constructions and analyzing the structuraldetails together with the builders is a strong method to convince the builders
on the commonly repeated mistakes in construction. Such training programsare very effective, some of the municipalities, such as Dharan and Vyasmunicipalities, two of the MERMP cities, started certification system that
permits only those contractors trained in earthquake-resistant construction tobid for construction awards.
There are several training programs conducted by NSET and others on
aspects of individual and collective safety from earthquakes before, during,
and after an earthquake.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

135

December 2003, Bangkok

6.5 Pre-Positioned Emergency Rescue Stores (PPERS)PPERS is a collection of different items of light search and rescue
stored in one place (a room or metallic container) in pre-disaster phase andkept in disaster safe location at various places in Kathmandu.
In October 2002, British Army Civil Affairs (CA) Group conducted
an exercise on “Emergency Planning Assessment for a Major Earthquake in
the Kathmandu Valley”. One of the recommendations of the exercise was toenhance the capability of community by establishing PPERS. A project
concept was developed; NSET provided required technical assistance to the
CA Group on PPERS Project.
The purpose of PPERS is to provide a reserve of essential tools andequipment to assist in the immediate response to a major disaster, such as anearthquake, in the Kathmandu Valley.
PPERS is intended to help those responders on the ground at the local
level who is going to be the first responder and enable to rescue as quick as
possible.
The PPERS project is designed to enhance the local capacity byproviding the tools and equipment, so that the emergency response could be
mobilize to full effect by:• neighbor helping neighbor• street helping street• community helping community
6.6 Establishment of Ward level Disaster Management Committees
Several municipal Wards in Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC)
and Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City (LSMC) have constituted ward-level
Disaster Management Committees (WDMC) that includes representatives
from community-based organizations, NGOs, businesses, clubs and theintelligentsia. The WDMCs are modeled after similar committee in the
KMC ward 34 that was created five years ago with assistance from NSET.
Subsequently, proceeds from the WSSI fellowship were used for assisting
the WDMC34 in formulating and implementing ward level planning andimplementation actions. The experimentation paid off- very interesting
experiences with rich lessons learned have been accumulated by some of the
WDMCs which have even found places in international publications.

7.

IMPROVEMENTS IN POLICY ENVIRONMENTHigh Level Meeting (HLM) of WSSI in Kathmandu in 1994 was thefirst milestone towards influencing the policy-makers on earthquake risk
management in Nepal. Subsequently, several policy improvement initiatives
have been formulated and implemented in the country. These policies help

136

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

create conducive environment for achieving disaster risk reduction andemergency response. Some of the efforts and achievements in these areas
are described below.
7.1

Creation of the Nepal Forum for Earthquake Safety (NFES)NFES has been established as one of the technical committees of the
Nepal Bureau of Standards and Metrology, a government department. NFES
draws membership from a wide sector: government, private consultants,
contractors, builders, their associations as well as the representatives fromengineering institutes, professional societies, material producers and traders,municipal authorities etc. It is a forum dedicated to the task of improving
seismic performance of new construction by encouraging compliance of
Nepal standards in terms of quality control of materials and construction
processes including observing all stipulations of the earthquake codes.
7.2

Mandatory implementation of national building code

The Bureau of Standards and Metrology has initiated a process fordefining the draft Building Code as Nepal Standard. Several of the 22
documents that was prepared as the National Building Code, which is
focused on seismic safety, has been accepted as Nepal Standards.
Recently, the Council of Ministers has decreed that the stipulations of
the National Building Code should be made obligatory for all governmentbuilding constructions. It also urged the municipal authorities to strengthen
the current building permit process so that code compliance becomesmandatory for all new constructions in the urban areas
7.3 Incorporation of disaster mitigation policy in tenth 5-year nationalplan
For the first time in Nepal, the document on the 5-year development
plan incorporates natural disaster management as one of the objectives of
the government in order to contribute towards “making the (infrastructural?)
Construction and development projects of the country durable, sustainable
and capable of providing the intended service”. Thus the development planof the country now encourages prevention and mitigation as importantefforts for disaster prevention (Tenth 5-year Development Plan, HMG/N,
2002). The policy statement in the plan includes preparation of long term
disaster management action plan, incorporation of disaster risk ininfrastructure construction projects, conduction of public awarenessprograms on disaster, establishment of central disaster management
department and earthquake hazard mapping.
In the same spirit, the government has allocated a nominal amount forbuilding code implementation under a separate heading in the budget for thecurrent fiscal year.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

137

December 2003, Bangkok

7.4

Local Self Governance Act and Kathmandu Metropolitan City Act

The recently promulgated Local Self Governance Act 1999 (LSGA,
1999) gives a fresh momentum to the process of decentralization anddevolution of authority. It empowers the local governments to undertake
disaster management activities. Techno-legal aspects of mitigation actions
are now considered within the jurisdiction of local governments.
A separate act, notably, Kathmandu Metropolitan City Act, is being
formulated in order to provide a comprehensive legal and policy framework
for an effective governance of the capital

8.

IDENTIFIED CHALLENGES

The preceding sections provide accounts of remarkable achievements
made in terms of raising public awareness and creating demand forearthquake safety. Several case studies have been generated, replicable
methodologies have been formulated and tested, and training curricula havebeen generated and propagated. That gives tremendous satisfaction todisaster management professional of Nepal.
However, despite these successes, one has to agree that the earthquake
risk of communities in Nepal is very high, and a lot more vulnerabilities arebeing generated every day than contained.
Stopping the ever-increasing earthquake risk is a daunting task!
Furthermore, given the existing constraints in terms of limited material aswell as man power resources, and also because of the lack of suitable policy
and legal environment, the task of disaster risk reduction and emergency
response planning and capability development appears to be very difficult if
not insurmountable.
Under these circumstances, we have listed the following as the major
challenges faced by Nepal and also by those who want to assist Nepal to
become earthquake-resilient.
8.1 Develop Methodologies for Assessment and Mitigation Suitable
For Local Problems
Many times, the available methodologies of assessment as well as
mitigation are not suitable to the local environment largely because of thedifference in the typologies of the construction resulting from the preferenceof certain construction materials by the community. Appropriate
methodologies need to be developed and tested so that the local problems
could be addressed properly. Example could be assessing the available
seismic resistance of typical Nepali buildings built in brick in mud mortar.
There are several historical building, monuments and temples that are builtof these materials and technologies. Many of these buildings in Kathmandu
Valley are standing for the past several centuries and are being used now

138

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

also. Obviously they are strong-enough to have resisted several of thedevastating earthquakes in Kathmandu and parts of Nepal.
A careful understanding of the seismic resistance of the traditionalarchitectural styles needs to be developed so that there is unison of approach
while trying to improve the seismic performance of existing traditional
Nepali building.
8.2

Improve Formal and Informal Communication

People tend to shy away from earthquake risk reduction concepts
because of the general unfamiliarity with the phenomena. Not everybody
would have been in an earthquake theatre. This results generally in the lackof proper interest, and low level of buy-in.
Communication with the stakeholders could be effective under suchsituation only if the communication is frequent, repeated, persistent, andaccompanied with successful demonstration projects. Focusing on
implementing the earthquake risk reduction activities, howsoever small, istherefore necessary. It pays to communicate success of demonstration
actions, howsoever small.
8.3 Need drastic improvement in Capacities
Nepalese institutions tasked with disaster risk reduction andemergency response do not generally have the required capacity to
implement these activities. Such capability lacking is felt at every levelfrom the masons to the builders and up to the technical professionals. Even
qualified civil engineers many times happened not to have exposed toelements of earthquake engineering because they studied in countries
without significant earthquake problems. On the other hand, manymunicipal agencies do not have adequate number of engineers and architects
who could decide in favor of improved seismic safety of buildings andinstitutions. A chronic problem is the lack of adequate number of trainedbuilding inspectors with the municipal corporation.

9.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS

The achievements made by Nepal in the past 10-12 years in terms of
successful implementation of earthquake risk reduction actions could beconsidered as a matter of pride and satisfaction by those who are involved in
the process directly or indirectly. The success made is surprising, especially
if one considers the fact that Nepal is one of the weakest economies and thenation has not made / does not have capability to make/ any significant
investment in disaster risk reduction, and that the seismic risk of the country
is one of the highest in the world if one considers earthquake lethality as anindicator.

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

139

December 2003, Bangkok

Such situation puts forward two main challenges to the concerned
professionals and agencies a) continue the support provided so far to ensurethat the efforts and investments made so far are insured, and b) assist the
local institutions, central and local governments, and non-governmentalorganizations, to take up new and ever-widening responsibilities. One has tounderstand that raising earthquake awareness of the community reduces therisk significantly, but it also tremendously increases the demand for more
and better knowledge, technologies, management tools, institutional
capabilities, and improved policy and legal environment. Coping with suchnatural, expected and desired outcome may become a maddening trance forthe activist especially if he/she or the institution fails to receive the support,
mainly a moral support!
The following are seen as the major tasks that need to be addressed incoming times.
A) Scale up Activities: there could be a serious blow to all the efforts andsuccesses achieved so far, and people would stop believing in mitigation if
the earthquake occurs now. Therefore, it is necessary to accomplish andconsolidate as much as possible before the next big one. The scale of
implementing the methodologies that are proven to be replicable, e.g.
hazard/risk assessment, action planning of earthquake risk management,
implementation of SESP, mason training, earthquake awareness etc.), need
to be implemented in as wide geographical area as possible. There should bea significant increase in the number of masons trained in earthquakeresistant construction, or the number of engineers trained in earthquake
vulnerability reduction for Cities (EVRC).
So far NSET worked in Kathmandu Valley and some cities. It isnecessary to implement projects in all the 58 municipalities of Nepal.
Perhaps it is necessary to implement similar initiative also in the adjoining
districts/municipalities in India.
B)
Make the Approach comprehensive: Success in earthquake risk
management can not be achieved in piecemeal. The efforts should becomprehensive: it should tell the common man how to construct safer abode,how to maintain it, how to convince his neighbor on the benefits of EVR,
what to do before, during, and after an earthquake, how to demand
earthquake safety from the state etc.
C) Emphasize on Action Implementation: It is clear at this stage that the
School Earthquake Safety Program (SESP) works wonderfully indeveloping countries. Then why to waste time by not implementing similar
initiatives.
D) Emphasize on Grass-roots level works: The most vulnerable are at
the grass-roots level, and the ones most willing to implement EVR are also
at the grass-roots level.

140

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

E) Publicize Success Stories (anyway they are few and far in- between!)
Given the low level of awareness and the complexity of earthquake risk
reduction measures, it is recommended to emphasize on successful cases.

BIBILOGRAPHY
1.

2.
3.
4.

5.

6.
7.

ATC, 1992. A model methodology for Assessment of Seismic
Vulnerability and Impact of Disruption of Water Supply System,
Project report ATC 25-1, ATC, USA.
HMG/N, 2002. Tenth 5-year National Plan. Kingdom of Nepal,
National Planning Commission, HMG/N, Kathmandu, Nepal
LSGA, 1999. Local Self Governance Act 1999. His majesty's
Government of Nepal, Kathmandu. Nepal
MOHA/HMGN-JICA, 2002. The study on earthquake disastermitigation of Kathmandu valley, Kingdom of Nepal, Project Report,
Ministry of Home Affairs, HMG/N, Kathmandu, Nepal.
MPPH/HMGN, 1994. Seismic Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment
for Nepal, Project document, National Building Code Development
Project, Ministry of Physical Planning and Housing, HMG/N,
Kathmandu, Nepal.
NSET, 19991. Kathmandu Valley’s Earthquake Scenario. National
Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), Kathmandu, Nepal
NSET, 19992. The Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management
Plan. National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET),
Kathmandu, Nepal

Mr. A. M. Dixit andMr. B. Pandey from Nepal

Experiences of Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

141

December 2003, Bangkok

Presenters at the Workshop…

Dr. M. Klyachko
from Russia

Mr. T. Boenfrom Indonesia, Member,
WSSI Board of Directors

Dr. N. H. Phuong
from Vietnam

142

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS ON
SEISMIC HAZARD MITIGATION IN TAIWAN
C. H. YEH, H. Y. HO and K. C. TSAI
National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering
TaiwanABSTRACT
Recent accomplishments on reconstructions of damaged regions after
the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake in 1999 are described. The promotion anddissemination of seismic hazard mitigation technologies and strategies arebriefly introduced in this paper.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Taiwan is located at the circum-pacific earthquake belt and has
suffered from devastating earthquakes in almost every decade. In 21
September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake occurred due to the rupture of
Chelongpu fault. Its magnitude was 7.3 with a focal depth of 7 kilometers,
attacked central Taiwan. This earthquake has resulted in 2,488 deaths,
11,000 injuries, and caused more than 100 thousand households severely
wounded due to various degrees of building damages. The total economic
losses were about US$11.5 billions. Since then, the central government of
Taiwan has devoted efforts on reconstructing the disastrous regions andimplementing the seismic disaster reduction systems against futureearthquakes. Several coordinated projects are undertaken in Taiwan to
identify the hazard sources, reinforce the civil infrastructures, integrate
information and scenario simulation systems, improve communication
capabilities, and to educate, as well as disseminate these information to, thegeneral public.

2.

BASIC FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PLAN

In this paper, the basic framework of disaster reduction plan
implemented in the Taiwan government is briefly introduced. The
framework comprises the laws, organizations and plans that are designed toallow the government, public services and private sectors to become awareof various kinds of natural hazards and to be well-prepared for theoccurrence of these hazards. It is believed that through the regular exercises
based on scenario simulations are essential in improving emergency
responses.
2.1 Hazard Mitigation and Response Acts
The Executive Yuan promulgated the “Disaster Prevention and
Mitigation Scheme” on August 4, 1994. Its purpose is to set up a disaster153

December 2003, Bangkok

prevention and response system and to upgrade its disaster mitigation
capabilities. Due to the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake which resulted in
more than 2,400 casualties and enormous economic losses, Taiwan
government has decided to establish a comprehensive and efficientadministrative system for disaster prevention. The “Disaster Prevention and
Mitigation Act” was passed by the Legislative Yuan and approved by the
President on July 19, 2000. The act consists of several parts, including
general statements, organization of the hazards mitigation system, and plansfor hazard mitigation, countermeasures for hazard preparedness, emergency
responses and recovery, penalties, and appendix. A brief description of theact is given below.

2.2•

General Statements: describing the purpose of this act, definitions ofterms, and agencies in charge of different kinds of hazards.

•

Organization of the hazard mitigation system: in order to execute
hazard mitigation tasks, it stipulates that agencies in the central andthe local governments have to convene necessary committees. It also
requires that in order to facilitate these tasks, they are allowed to set
up units to execute, consult, or research.

•

Mitigation plans: it stipulates the initiation of basic plans concerning
hazard mitigation, the procedures for approval, and the contents ofthe plans.

•

Preparedness: it stipulates the obligations of government andrelevant agencies, and items of preparedness for hazard mitigation.

•

Emergency response: it stipulates the emergency response measuresand the scope of duties when a disaster has occurred.

•

Recovery: it stipulates that the government agencies as well as the
public organizations should jointly participate in the coordination of
post-disaster recovery.

•

Penalties: it stipulates the penalties associated with the violation ofthis law.

•

Appendix: it stipulates the budget planning, emergency loans,donations, standards setting, etc.
Organizations

The organizations and the framework of the disaster reduction
management system in Taiwan are shown in Figure 1. Based upon the“Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act”, the Hazard Mitigation Committeeof the Execute Yuan is formed to take in charge of implementation andcoordination of the national policies for hazard mitigation. The Committee
Chairman is the Premier of the Executive Yuan. The secretaries of thecentral ministries and scholars are members responsible for formulating andpromoting the Basic Plans for Disaster Prevention and Response. The
administrative organs are mandated to prepare and fulfill their operationplans or local plans for disaster prevention and response.

154

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

In order to achieve the goals for hazard mitigation and emergency
response, temporary mission task forces are formed by various levels ofgovernment. The Central Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Briefing set upby the Executive Yuan is the highest unit of special mission for disasterprevention and response. The municipal city government and regional
governments will also set up the disaster prevention and response task forces
which are overseen by the Hazard Mitigation Committee of the Executive
Yuan. In the level of regional government, governors serve as chairpersonsof the regional disaster prevention councils. Thus, the designated units or
staffs shall be responsible for all the obligations and responsibilities on
disaster prevention and response.

Figure 1: Framework of Disaster Reduction Management System in Taiwan
2.3

Hazard Mitigation and Response Plans

Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention and Response. This is the national
plan for disaster prevention and response. Its first version has been approvedby the Central Disaster Prevention Committee on June 20, 2001. The Basic
Plan includes key features of the overall and the long-term disastermitigation and response planning and strategies. The plan also provides theguidelines on the operation plans and local plans for disaster prevention andresponse.
Operation Plans for Disaster Prevention and Response. The plans shallbe formulated by various administrative ministries and public services

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

155

December 2003, Bangkok

according to the Disaster Prevention and Response Act and the Basic Plan
for Disaster Prevention and Response.
Local Plans for Disaster Prevention and Response. The plans shall be
formulated by municipal or regional (counties or cities) Disaster Prevention
and Response Committees according to the local conditions.
3.

EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCHES ANDDISASTER MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES

During the past years, several coordinated research programs on earthscience, earthquake engineering and disaster mitigation technologies havebeen conducted through the supports of various government agencies,
including the Central Weather Bureau, Ministry of Education and National
Science Council. Some of these projects are described in the following.
3.1

Strong Motion Monitoring Networks

There are more than 650 strong-motion stations installed aroundTaiwan by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). This is part of the "Taiwan
Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP)" launched in 1991. In thesame program, the CWB has also installed more than 50 sets of strongmotion arrays in buildings and bridges to monitor the seismic responses. It
has provided valuable data for research on system identification and healthdiagnosis of structures. Thousands of strong-motion records have beencollected and used in studying various attenuation laws of strong-motion
parameters, site effects due to topographic and geologic conditions, and soon. In particular, the strong-motion records of the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan
earthquake provide valuable data to investigate the near-fault responses ofstructures subjected to long-period velocity pulses, or to study the seismic
source rupture model, etc.
The CWB also develops "Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information
Release System (TREIRS)", allowing the detection of an earthquake,
including its magnitude, epicenter and focal depth all within a total of 90
seconds immediately following its occurrence. Through an integrated
application of the TREIRS and TELES (to be explained later), the central
and local emergency response centers can obtain the intensity maps of theground motion parameters, or the hazard maps of the predicted damages andcasualties, etc. in 15 minutes after occurrence of strong earthquakes.
The current distribution of strong-motion stations in Taiwan is likely
the densest in the world. However, the applications of these strong-motion
records would be limited if a complete geologic database of each site is notavailable. Therefore, started in 2000, the National Center for Research on
Earthquake Engineering (NCREE) and CWB launched a joint effort toinvestigate the site conditions of the strong-motion stations. It includes
collecting the basic soil properties and the wave velocity of the stratum. At
the time of writing this paper, a total of 175 stations has been investigated.
In addition, all the research results are systematically stored in the database

156

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

and accessible through Internet. This database is extremely useful in further
research on the site effect analysis and earthquake-resistant design.
3.2

Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of School Buildings

There were many school buildings severely damaged or collapsed
during 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake; especially those buildings inprimary and secondary schools. According to statistics, 786 schoolbuildings were subjected to various degrees of damage. Among them, 656
were severely damaged and 43 were collapse. In Nantou County only,
twenty percents of the school buildings were severely damaged or collapsed.
Most school buildings were constructed according to a common plan.
Typically, these classrooms were allocated side by side in a row and thecorridor is cantilevered without outer columns. Therefore, due to a lack of
redundancy and the effects of short-column, there has been a strong
tendency that school buildings collapsed along the corridor. The Ministry of
Education has decided to allocate funds on seismic evaluation and retrofit ofvulnerable school buildings.
The preliminary seismic resistance assessment of a school building
can be made by filling out a simple table during the visual inspection. The
original version of the table was developed during the post-earthquake
reconnaissance following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. From the statisticsof the school building damages, the maximum unit load for columns andminimum ratio of wall cross-sectional area to total floor area were estimated.
After the preliminary assessment, the detailed seismic evaluation method
can be further applied considering the demand and capacity of the schoolbuildings. Detailed example assessments were carried out for schoolbuildings based on the possible strength and ductility. In addition, thefeasibility of various retrofit technologies for school buildings has beenstudied experimentally. In order to disseminate the methodology of seismic
evaluation and retrofit for school buildings, tutorial courses and workshops
have also been held. At least twenty-one collapsed school buildings havebeen reconstructed and most damaged school buildings have been repaired
and strengthened using various approaches including enlarging the columns,
adding shear walls, adding wing-walls, reinforced concrete jacketing andsteel jacketing.
3.3

Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of Highway Bridges

In order to determine whether it has been damaged or not, more than
one thousand highway bridges were inspected immediately after the Chi-Chi
earthquake. Almost all the collapsed bridges were on the Chelongpu fault
due to the large deformation occurred on two sides of the fault. Strong
ground shaking near the fault zone has caused either the shear-type or the
flexure-type failure modes on the columns, or severe damages on the
bearing or anti-falling systems. It appears very difficult to prevent damages
caused by extremely large ground deformation. Nevertheless, several
projects have been launched in order to study effective disaster mitigation
strategies for highway bridges that may run across active fault zones.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

157

December 2003, Bangkok

In 2001, the Taiwan Area National Freeway Bureau (TANFB) of
Ministry of Transportation issued a planning project to evaluate the seismic
capacities and seismic hazards of freeway bridges, surveying retrofit
technologies for existing bridges. It has allowed the prioritization according
to available budgets to retrofit existing bridges. The recommendations havebeen accepted by the Council for Economic Planning and Development of
Taiwan. According to the schedule, all the bridges in Sun Yat-Sen freeway,
the first and the most important freeway in Taiwan, will complete the retrofit
work by 2009.
3.4

Construction and Upgrade of Electrical Power Systems

The Chi-Chi earthquake had paralyzed Taipower’s ability to transmit
and distribute electric power to many of its customers. Damages ofhundreds of 345 KV, 161 KV and 69 KV transmission towers in the affectedarea caused the immediate blackout in the middle and north of Taiwan.
Some substations and switchyards were also damaged, although the impactof their damage on the entire power system was usually much less direct
than the failure of transmission system. A notable exception was theswitchyard at Chung-liaw located about 7 kilometers away from theepicenter. Being pivotal to the power transmission, the functional loss of
this switchyard was one of the key factors responsible for the postearthquake electrical power interruption.
Taking the advantage of the government emergency decree announced
following this earthquake, the construction of the third 345 KV transmission
line was immediately accelerated. The northern segment of the third
transmission line was completed in 2000 spring. After its completion, thenetwork reliability and redundancy has been significantly enhanced. In thelong term perspective, the “Sixth Transmission and Substation Project” hasbeen launched to further improve the power system in Taiwan. The project
was started in July 2001 and will be completed by December 2006. It willbuild or upgrade 272 substations and add additional 3,660 ckt-km oftransmission lines.
3.5

Update of Seismic Design Codes

During the past years, NCREE has led the efforts in updating theseismic force requirements for building and bridge designs in Taiwan.
Based on the uniform hazard analysis for a return period of 475 years, thedesign response spectral accelerations with 5% damping ratio at short and 1
second periods are calculated for each administrative unit, either in a village,
town or city level. Furthermore, by considering the local site effects, thesite-dependent modification coefficients have been defined.
In order to check the performance of structures under the maximum
considered earthquakes, the maximum considered response spectral
accelerations corresponding to a return period of 2500 years, are also
developed at short and 1 second periods. In addition, in order to consider
the basin effects, microzonation of Taipei basin has been incorporated in the
updated version of the seismic design codes. The near-fault effects are also

158

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

taken into consideration through applying the near-fault coefficients toamplify the seismic demands at the near-fault regions. In the meantime, inorder to fully implement the performance-based design in the future, theprocedures for the performance evaluation were also studied during the past
years. Most of these researches focused on the topics of design groundmotions, mathematical model and analysis procedures.
3.6

Networked Experimental Simulation Technology

Information technology has a great potential to gain wide applications
on earthquake engineering experiments or simulations, such as the NEES
and the ED-Net projects launched in the United States and Japan,
respectively. It can effectively satisfy the needs on large-scale structuralexperiments. An Internet-based environment, named ISEE (Internet-based
Simulation for Earthquake Engineering) has been developed in NCREE forcollaborative networked pseudo-dynamic tests among different laboratories.
ISEE employs a database for experimental data exchange and repository, a
web service for experiment setup and data sharing, and facility controllers
with tele-operation capability. It also possesses an OpenSees-based analysis
engine to perform pseudo-dynamic analyses, the video and databroadcasting systems share the real-time video images and experimental
response digital data with interested viewers through Internet.
A series of networked pseudo-dynamic tests using the databaseapproach show that the network and data processing cost about 0.2 seconds
and 2 seconds per time step, about 20% and 70% of the total elapsed time inthe domestic and transnational experiments, respectively. It appears rather
feasible for most of the low-speed pseudo-dynamic tests.
With real-time videos and experimental data sharing internationally,
the ISEE has been applied to the Taiwan-US-Japan collaborative large-scale
RCS and CFT-BRB composite frame experiments in 2002 and 2003,
respectively. Further researches are continued to enhance the robustness andfunctionalities of the ISEE environment. The objectives include thepromotion of the ISEE to other research laboratories in Taiwan, and tointegrate with ED-Net, NEES and the other earthquake engineering
networks in the world.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

159

December 2003, Bangkok
Potential Earth Science Hazards

Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Analysis

Ground Motion

Ground Failure

Direct Physical Damages

General Building
StocksEssential
Facilities

Transportation
Systems

Socio-economic Losses

Indirect Physical Damages

Fire Following

DebrisUtility
Systems

Casualties

Shelters

Economic Losses

Indirect Losses

Figure 2: Framework of analysis modules in HAZ-Taiwan project.
3.7

Seismic Disaster Simulation and Loss Estimation

Based on the framework of HAZUS, the National Science Council
launched the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998. In the scope of that project,various kinds of seismology, geology and inventory database have beencollected. In addition, a number of analysis modules including potential
earth science hazard analysis, damage assessment of engineered structures,and socio-economic loss estimation have been developed and further
calibrated. Although the Risk Management Solutions, Inc., a well known
consultant company in the United States, developed the first version of theapplication software, forms the basic methodology of HAZ-Taiwan.
National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering has further
developed the second version of the application software.
The latest application software developed in the HAZ-Taiwan projectis called "Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)". The
framework of analysis modules in TELES is shown in Figure 1. To
complement the functionality of HAZUS, the TELES software is designed
to fulfill three objectives. The first objective is to act as a decision-making
support system in emergency responses and to estimate the induced damages,
casualties and losses in very short time after occurrence of strong
earthquakes. The second objective is to comprehensively estimate thepossible consequences of strong earthquakes and to assist in proposing thedisaster mitigation plans for local governments. The third objective is toestimate the maximum probable loss and annual average loss due to strong
earthquakes and to help governments and private sectors in proposing thecatastrophic risk management policies.

160

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

4.

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

4.1

Existing information system

A number of organizations have developed their own information
systems to meet the needs in various phases, such as the mitigation,
preparedness, emergency response, and recovery phases in disastermanagement. Users are the relevant operation staffs in the ministries or
institutes. The existing information systems of several organizations aredescribed briefly as follows:(a) National Fire Administration (NFA), Ministry of the Interior:
When a disaster is recognized, information is collected accordingly andtransmitted through the internet. The location of the disaster will bemarked on the GIS-based maps. Furthermore, resources for rescue
forces and medical services can be inquired according to the scale,classification, the phase of the natural hazard.
(b) Water Resources Agency (WRA), Ministry of Economic Affairs:
When a natural hazard is forming, the information comes from theRiver Management Office, such as water levels in rivers and dams, andoperation status of hydrological equipments and facilities, are integrated
into the disaster information system. The information is also provided
to other government agencies through intranet system.
(c) Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Ministry of Transportation andCommunications: Information provided by the CWB includes typhoon
tracks, precipitation observations, satellite images, radar echoes,
numerical weather forecast model predictions, and earthquake
monitoring information. All the information can be accessed from theweb site of CWB for extended application.
(d) The Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), Council ofAgriculture: Information provided by the web-based disaster
information system of SWCB includes the state of landslide alert,announcement of debris flow, heavy rainfall and typhoon related
information in mountain area.
(e) National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Center (NCDR), National Science Council: When a typhoon attacks
Taiwan area, NCDR provides decision-making support information to
the Central Emergency Response Center. It includes the hourly rainfall
forecast for each river basin, inundation potential maps for each county
and city, and potential maps of debris flow creeks in Taiwan area.
(f) National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering(NCREE), National Science Council: Soon after the occurrence of astrong earthquake, the information of the ground motion intensity,
ground failure extent, building damage counts and casualty estimates
are calculated by the Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System. Thisis one of primary accomplishments of HAZ-Taiwan project explained
in section 3.7.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

161

December 2003, Bangkok

4.2

e-Taiwan project for disaster management

The existing information and decision-making support systems fordisaster management were designed independently by various government
agencies and research institutes. It is crucial to integrate all the information
systems into a unified multi-purpose disaster management system. The eTaiwan project is an important part of the “Challenge of 2008 - National
Development Plan”. One of the objectives of the e-Taiwan project is toestablish an integrated information and communication system for disastermanagement. The total budget of the e-Taiwan project is around NT$700
millions for the upcoming five years. The tasks of this project are briefly
described as follows:(a) Developing a national decision-making support system for disastermanagement•

Integrating the existing decision-making support systems from various
government agencies.

•

Developing a standard decision-making support system for central andlocal governments.

•

Setting up an information management system for disaster prevention
and response.

(b) Integrating and replenishing the data bank for disaster management•

Integrating and replenishing the existing data bank from eachgovernment agency and institute.

•

Developing a platform for data sharing, maintenance and management ofdisaster data bank.

•Establishing a standard operation system for disaster data bank forcentral and local governments.

(c) Developing the disaster information system for training and education•

Developing an information system of disaster education for professionaland decision maker..

(d) Developing an e-learning system for disaster management
4.3

Communication system

Based on the lessons learned after the catastrophic earthquakes andtyphoons, Taiwan government has given more efforts on the communication
systems for disaster reduction and emergency response. However, there arestill many issues need to be further resolved. Firstly, the information for
hazard analysis and disaster prediction in early warning phase appears
insufficient. Secondly, the transmission system could be out of function
when a hazard occurs, and the local disaster information might not be sent
back to report. As a result, the commander in emergency response center
would be unable to know what could have happened, and consequently hecould not effectively dispatch rescue forces and medical resources.

162

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Currently, the major communication systems for disaster informationin Taiwan are the wired or radio devices such as telephone, fax, internet,
walky-talky, mobile phone, satellite communication, and so on. However,
the wired system may be damaged by strong wind of typhoon or by groundfailure due to earthquakes. The communication systems might also be
shutdown due to the power failure. The mobile phone could be one of thesolutions for disaster information transmission. However, thecommunication devices or the transmission equipments may be damaged
due to inundation, strong ground shaking or power failure. Besides, thedevelopment of information system requires transmission and procession ofhuge amount of digital data including voice, image, video, and so on. The
information content is multiplexed and requires large bandwidth for datatransmission. Consequently, one of the goals in developing communication
systems for disaster information in Taiwan is to increase the transmission
capacity through multiple channels.
The communication systems for disaster information in the “Challenge
2008 - National Development Plan” include two projects that are to plan,
design, and establish microwave and satellite communication systems. The
microwave communication project plans to set up a communication networkwith 167 microwave stations, which are distributed over the Taiwan area.
The government agencies can communicate with the on-site experts andrescue teams when a disaster occurs. The satellite communication projectplans to set up a communication network by satellite technology. The majortasks in establishing the communication systems include the construction of
immovable stations and mobile systems to receive the microwave signals.
When immovable stations are damaged in the disastrous area, a mobile
network can be readily set up to maintain connectivity and the efficiency of
rescue actions.
5.

EDUCATION OF HAZARD MITIGATION

Recently, both the government and public services have given more
efforts on education of hazard mitigation and disaster reduction. The
promotion and dissemination works are conducted one after another. It
focuses on designing the operational rules, editing the class materials,
extending the courses, promoting related educational activities,
strengthening educational facilities, setting up computer networks, etc. For
example, the consultant office of Ministry of Education has launched a 4year project on the “Improvement of Natural Hazard Mitigation Educationin Civil Engineering” since 1998. This project has strengthened the contents
and deepened the foundation of natural hazard mitigation education of civilengineering in colleges. In the mean time, Central Weather Bureau hasedited “One hundred questions on typhoon”, “One hundred questions onearthquake”, “Natural hazard mitigation manual”, and “An outlook on
weather world” brochures for public disaster reduction education. These
handbooks are free for the public in order to increase their knowledge andawareness of natural hazards.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

163

December 2003, Bangkok

Due to the rapid economic development and society changes, there arefurther needs on hazard mitigation education, especially about the policies,
responsibilities, curriculum, course materials, and resources integration. For
example, there are only 2% of colleges that teach disaster prevention
education for common courses. Most of the courses focus on individual
disaster, only a few courses touch on the multiple disasters. Textbooks
mention disaster prevention and hazard-related knowledge. However, its
contents often focus on disaster prevention attitude and skills. Only a few
textbooks touch upon psychological adjustment and recovery, which is along-term potential post-disaster problem. The audiences for hazard
mitigation education are mainly students. There have been very few
interactions between government agencies and professional organizations.
After reviewing the current status of hazard mitigation and emergency
response policies, problems, and demands, the consultant office of Ministryof Education has proposed the “Improvement of Hazard Mitigation
Education Project in Taiwan”.
5.1

Goal

After reviewing contents on hazard mitigation education implemented
in other countries, it is found that the key points on hazard mitigation
education in schools are as follows: the awareness and attitude of hazard
mitigation and preparedness, appropriate emergency response measures,periodic exercises, building up of hazard mitigation system in communities,
participation of students’ parents, hazard mitigation training programs foradministration staffs and teachers in schools, safety information on buildings,
related researches on hazard mitigation education, and international
cooperation on hazards mitigation.
The hazard mitigation education in the other countries focuses on
actions. Although the knowledge-based learning is important, how to secure
lives and properties through the establishment of hazard mitigation system isthe key point for hazard mitigation education. It is therefore suggested that
integrating resources for hazard mitigation education, setting up qualified
learning curriculum, and enhancing public hazards resistance capacity be theultimate goals of hazard mitigation education for Taiwan.
5.2

Implementation strategies

The goals of education program are to increase the public awarenesson the importance of preparedness and emergency response. Through thiseducation program, it is expected to foster hazard mitigation awareness ofthe public, to strengthen disaster resistance capacity of the society and to
reduce risks. After reviewing the awareness and capability in eacheducation level, the following implementation strategies are suggested:•

Strengthening public awareness on hazard mitigation.

•

Developing appropriate courses and materials.

•

Expanding learning approaches and education resources.

•

Improving education facilities.

164

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5•

Training the instructors for hazard mitigation education.

•

Gaining instructional experiences and knowledge.

•

Establishing hazard education exemplification and an evaluating system.

•

Integrating resources with activities from schools, societies and hazardrelated sectors of government.

5.3

Expected outcomes

When this project is completed, expected outcomes will be as follows:•

For each learning level (including elementary schools, junior middle
schools, senior high schools, colleges, universities, adult education
centers, etc.) and for each kind of disaster (including earthquakes,
hurricanes, debris flows, man-made disasters, etc.), it is expected that the
project managers complete the investigation of the demands in various
stages. Other completed tasks will include the design of appropriate
course material, training teachers and instructors, performing
demonstration and evaluating performance.

•

To complete the design and promotion of emergency responses ofschools in different stages for hurricanes, floods, debris flows andearthquakes. That is to complete the design of plans for both natural
hazards and man-made disasters for elementary schools, junior middle
schools, senior high schools, colleges and universities.

•

To complete the improvement of social and adult education, and toevaluate the performance, promotion abilities, and teaching facilities (e.g.
software and hardware) of the hazard mitigation education agencies.

•

To set up the web-sites and knowledge banks for various learning stages(including elementary school, junior middle schools, senior high schools,
colleges, universities, adult education centers, etc.), so that the user canassess the course materials through the Internet.

•

To plan and to set up resource centers for hazard mitigation education.
To integrate the outcomes of hazard mitigation education projects during
2003-2006, including course materials, teacher training program,performance evaluation measures, and emergency response plans forvarious learning stages.

6.

COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

The National Science Council of Taiwan has supported many hazard
mitigation and disaster reduction projects and obtained fruitful results in theareas of potential earth science hazard analysis, damage and risk assessment,
scenario simulation, early warning and estimation system, seismic capacity
evaluation and retrofit technology, hazard-mitigation database, strategy andperformance evaluation, etc. Many of these results have been implemented
in practice. One of the examples is briefly described as follows.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

165

December 2003, Bangkok

The NSC had a collaboration agreement with the Municipal
Government of Taipei (MGT) from 1999 to 2002 to assist in technology
transfer from NSC to MGT for applications. Figure 3 shows the flow chart
for the main tasks in this collaboration project. This project has completed
the following tasks:•

Unification of rainfall stations into a system, development of highresolution inundation maps, development of inundation display andflood mitigation decision-support systems.

•

Rating and mapping landslide potential hazard, and development oflandslide warning system.

•

Development of decision-making support system for earthquake disasterand loss estimation, earthquake scenario simulation, and proposing
evacuation routes in case of damaging earthquakes.

•

Development of Taipei City Hazards Mitigation Plan.

Figure 3: The Process flow of the Cooperation ProjectWith the assistance of the NCDR and NCREE, the MGT's working
group has gained the technology and laid a solid foundation for improving
hazard mitigation. For instance, during the typhoon events of Nakri andSinlaku in the year of 2002, the emergency responses of Taipei City
government had demonstrated the enhanced capability by utilizing
technologies acquired during the period of collaboration.
Similarcollaboration agreements have been signed with several local governments.
As more progresses are made in dissemination of mitigation technologies,
the mitigation capability will be further enhanced in Taiwan.

166

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

7.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONSIn order to plan, integrate and coordinate earthquake-engineeringresearches in Taiwan, the National Science Council founded the National
Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE) in 1991. The
main objectives of NCREE are to promote earthquake-resistant design, tostimulate innovative technologies, and to provide experimental facilities andservices to government, academia and practice professionals in Taiwan. It
also commits collaborations with many other research institutes, including
MCEER, PEER and University of Texas, A&M in the United States, Kyoto
University and Kobe University in Japan, PWGS in Canada, and so on.
In complying with the International Cooperation on Research andTraining Programs of the National Science Council of Taiwan, NCREE hasorganized two short-term training course programs on seismic design ofstructures in the past two years. These training courses meet the suggestions
given by the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI). The participants camefrom many countries across the continents, including Costa Rica, Dominica,
El Salvador, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. NCREE not justprovided lectures, but also technical tours, round-trip airplane tickets andsix-day accommodations. In October 2003, the program has been arranged
to allow sharing the knowledge and experiences among different countries
through presentations made by all participants.
8.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Damaging earthquakes are likely to happen again in the future.
Disasters resulted from strong earthquakes could be more devastating than
the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake if the seismic sources are close to metropolitan
areas. Since Taiwan is a developed country and locates in a seismic active
region, it is essential for the governments, public services, private sectors,
and individuals be well-prepared, knowing what to do and how to responsewhen a strong earthquake occurs unpredictably. As a member of the earth
village, Taiwan would like to learn lessons and exchange information,
experiences and technologies with other developed countries as well as
sharing our knowledge with developing countries.
REFERENCES
1.
2.

3.

Ban-jwu Shih, 2002. First International Conference on Debris-Flow
Disaster Mitigation Strategy, pp. 197-207.
Chen, C.H., Lai, W.C. Cordova, P., Deierlein, G. G. and Tsai, K.C.,
2003, “Pseudo-Dynamic Test of a Full-Scale RCS Frame: Part 1 –Design, Construction and Testing”, Proceedings, International
workshop on Steel and Concrete Composite Constructions, Taipei,
Taiwan.
Lass, W., Reusswig, F., and Kuhn, K. D., 1998.
Disaster
Vulnerability and Sustainable Development, German IDNDR SeriesNo. 14e, German IDNDR Committee for Natural Disaster Reduction.

Recent Accomplishments on Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

167

December 2003, Bangkok

4.
5.

6.

7.

8.

Mileti, D. S., 1999. Disasters by Design, Joseph Henry Press,
Washington, D. C.
Tsai, K.C., Hsiao, P.C., Lai, J.W., Chen, C.H., Lin, M.L. and Weng,
Y.T., 2003, “Pseudo Dynamic Experimental Responses of a Full Scale
CFT/BRB Composite Frame”, Proceedings, Joint NCREE/JRC
Workshop International Collaboration on Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation Research Methodologies, Facilities, Projects andNetworking, Taipei, Taiwan.
Yen, C. L., 1998. Planning of National Science and Technology
Program for Hazards Mitigation, National Science Council Monthly,Vol. 26, No. 7 (in Chinese).
Yen, C. L., 1997. Research on Disaster Reduction Technology in
Taiwan, Paper presented at 3rd Cross-Strait Symposium on
Hydrotechnology Exchange, Beijing, China (in Chinese).
Yen, C. L., Tsai, Y. B., Chen, L. C., Lee, C. S., Hsu, M. H., Lin, M. L.
and Loh, C. H., 1997. Planning Study on Science and Technology
Research for Hazards Mitigation, Report, National Science Council,
Taipei, Taiwan (in Chinese).

Dr. K. C. Tsai and
Dr. C. H. Yeh from Taiwan

168

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATIONEFFORTS:THE PHILIPPINE EXPERIENCE
B. C. BAUTISTA
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)
Philippines

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses the earthquake risk mitigation efforts in thePhilippines spearheaded by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology andSeismology (PHIVOLCS). The approach being taken deals with balancing
the conduct of seismological studies and the implementation of innovative
activities that can raise the levels of awareness and preparedness of local
communities to earthquake disasters.
The Philippine experience involves the upgrading of the institutes
capability to monitor and document earthquake occurrences in the country
and the conduct of seismic hazard studies in both regional and microlevels.
These generated various hazard maps which are distributed to the public.
The elements-at-risk such as schools, hospitals and lifelines are also plottedon these hazard maps and can be used for planning how appropriate socioeconomic and engineering responses could be designed. These maps can
now be used for educating various communities in order to guider them inpreparing appropriate disaster action plans.
Only through anunderstanding of these hazards and their associated risks canvulnerabilities be reduced by convincing these communities to act now andprepare themselves against future earthquake disasters. The other step
actively pursued by PHIVOLCS is finding innovative and creative ways on
how to raise public awareness through seminars, workshops, town watching
exercises, earthquake drills and disaster action planning. For the next few
years, our target for our information dissemination campaigns would be thetsunami prone communities in the country through the setting up of tsunami
markers, memorials, designing evacuation route and teaching them nature
possible precursors for tsunami occurrence.

1.

INTRODUCTION

This paper discusses the experience of the Philippine Institute ofVolcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in implementing programs
related to earthquake risk mitigation from the time that the Institute took
over the Seismology mandate in 1986. Like other developing countries, theInstitute’s programs for earthquake risk mitigation is dependent on available
funds. Inspite the lack of funds, the institute continued to address the143December 2003, Bangkok

needs of its vulnerable communities for proper earthquake information andthe need to develop a culture of earthquake-prepared communities.

2.

EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION STRATEGIES SINCE THE
1990 LUZON EARTHQUAKEThe mandate of conducting earthquake-related studies in thePhilippines is under the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS). This responsibility was transferred to the Institute after
government reorganizations in 1984 and 1986. Prior to this, from 1901 to
1986, the seismological mandates rested with the Philippine meteorologicalagency, which is similar to setups in other Asian countries.
When PHIVOLCS assumed the responsibilities of being theearthquake monitoring agency in the country, it took over the operation ofnine manned, analog seismic stations. These stations were responsible formonitoring the seismicity of the entire archipelago. The instruments werecarry-over from a previous United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) grant which upgraded the seismic network of the country to
WWSSN standards. Computers were still hard-to-acquire then especiallyfor developing countries. Hence, plotting of earthquake epicenters wasdone manually using the graphical method. Communication with the ninestations was done through single side band radios. Only one station had its
own telephone unit. There were photographic strong motion instruments
but films for recording had been out of the market by the time thephotographic accelerographs were transferred to PHIVOLCS. The transfer
also included warm bodies mainly trained in seismic observations and basic
repair and maintenance of these equipment. Meanwhile, as in otherdeveloping countries then, earthquake awareness efforts were still not so
widely done and supported at that time. Hence, the level of awareness ofthe public was limited.
From 1986 to 1989, earthquake data processing and databasemanagement started to be computerized. Attempts to raise public awarenesswere initiated through seminar-workshops with audience coming from local
government units. Two of these workshops were held in the Cordillera
Administrative Region (CAR) and in Baguio City in June 1990. Theinterest then was not so high and encouraging probably since the lastearthquake in that region happened long time ago. A month later, a Ms 7.8
struck northern Luzon including CAR and Baguio City. The quake killed
more than 1,200 people mainly due to building collapsed. Nineteenbuildings collapsed in Baguio and Cabanatuan Cities while several others inthese cities were severely damaged. Severe liquefaction caused otherbuildings and bridges to tilt and sink in Dagupan City, another city inNorthern Luzon. With the deaths and severe economic impact (about 99
million pesos) caused by this quake, it served as an eye opener to theauthorities about the need to have a strong earthquake risk mitigation
program in the country. After this and until now, PHIVOLCS continued onwith activities leading to increasing the earthquake awareness and144

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

preparedness. It targeted specialized audience, especially those who could
replicate the knowledge, such as teachers, media, engineers and local
government officials. PHIVOLCS also gave attention to tapping local
knowledge of indigenous communities about disaster preparedness. At
present, the same kind of earthquake seminar workshop is being done by
PHIVOLCS in different earthquake risk areas including Metro Manila andthe level of acceptance is very high.
2.1

Preparedness Efforts for Earthquakes in the Philippines

2.1.1 Development of capability for warning and Generation of Sufficient
Database for Conducting Seismic Hazard Maps
Knowing that a truly upgraded and state-of-the art seismic network
comparable to developed countries costs money which a developing country
like the Philippines can ill-afford, PHIVOLCS drafted and endorsed a
proposal on a project entitled “Improvement of the Earthquake and Volcano
Monitoring Network of the Philippines” to the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) right after the 1990 earthquake. Since only ashort list of projects are endorsed by the government each year to JICA, thePHIVOLCS project took years to be approved, given funding andimplemented. In anticipation of the eventual approval and to show that
PHIVOLCS has the setups in place to host and implement a high-levelproject such as the development of a state-of-the art seismic network,
PHIVOLCS constructed several seismic stations from 1991 to 1999. The
Institute also upgraded its manpower pool in its field stations by recruiting
graduates with engineering degrees. At the same time, from a two-floor
rented office space that it used to occupy, PHIVOLCS managed to obtaingovernment funds to build its own four-storey building that now houses its
four technical divisions, one administrative division, a Data Receiving
Center, one S & T library, 1 geochemical laboratory, a GIS laboratory, athin sectioning room, a radio-communication room, auditorium, two miniconference rooms, a visiting scientist room and a canteen. At the fourth
floor are 18 individual rooms targeted for use of its visiting scientists who
have collaborative projects with PHIVOLCS.
In 1999, the proposed JICA project was finally implemented. The
project consists of two phases. Phase 1 consists of upgrading the seismic
stations of PHIVOLCS, which numbered 34 in 1999, from an analog to adigital setup. This phase also installed a digital strong motion instrument,
intensity meter and two PCs in each of the 34 stations in the country. Phase
II is divided into both Phase IIa and Phase IIb. Phase IIa consists of
installing radio-telemetered networks in the five most active volcanoes of
the Philippines. Phase IIb is the establishment of 30 new remote seismic
stations linked through satellite communications technology. When
operational, the new seismic network will consists of 34 manned stations
and 30 remote stations to bring the total number of stations to 64. At thesame time, the JICA grant also provided GPS instruments for studying
ground deformation of volcanoes and faults, electronic tiltmeters andportable strong motion instruments for emergency seismic monitoring.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation Efforts: The Philippine Experience145December 2003, Bangkok

Meanwhile, for Metro Manila, a seven-station radio-telemeterednetwork has been established and being operated by PHIVOLCS. The aim
is to detect possible foreshocks that could indicate possible future
movement of the valley Fault System, the active fault that transects themetropolis.
The high quality seismic data being generated by the upgradednetwork can now be used in conducting seismic hazard assessment studies.
For the last few years, seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involved theestimation of strong ground motion using both probabilistic anddeterministic approaches, seismic microzonation studies of key cities using
microtremor observations, paleoseismology and active faults mapping,identification of liquefaction-, landslide-prone and tsunami-affected areas.
While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional
level, PHIVOLCS has started to focus on doing these seismic hazard studies
on a microlevel. For Metro Manila, first generation hazard maps showing
ground rupture, ground shaking and liquefaction hazards had recently been
completed. Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are
the next targets. The elements at risk such as population, lifelines, verticaland horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being
incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners, civil defense
officials, policy-makers and engineers. The maps can also now be used todescribe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how
appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed.
2.1.2 Earthquake Awareness and Preparedness
Meanwhile, PHIVOLCS has been very active in conducting activities
that can raise public awareness and finding ways how scientific studies caninfluence building code implementation and land use. This is done throughpublic education. Formal attempts by PHIVOLCS in cooperation with the
Department of Education to incorporate the knowledge about geologic
hazards into the elementary school curriculum has been successful. At
present, concepts about earthquakes and volcanoes are now being taught toprimary school children. Meanwhile, a graduate degree course in
Earthquake Engineering was also initiated and is now being done together
with the Polytechnic University of the Philippines (PUP), one the largest
state universities in the country. This is to produce graduates that can takethe lead on conducting earthquake engineering studies and practice in the
country. Faculties harnessed to teach in this special graduate studies
program include PHIVOLCS scientists as well as faculties from otherengineering departments of other universities and engineers from the
Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines. The Memorandumof Agreement (MOA) between PHIVOLCS and PUP also states that
PHIVOLCS facilities and equipment may be used by the graduate students.

146

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

2.1.3 Other Raising Earthquake Awareness Activities
Publication and dissemination of reading materials audiovisualpackages that explain earthquake hazards:
To reach a wider audience, PHIVOLCS embarked into the publicationof pamphlets, posters and annual reports that can be easily understood byordinary person. This was done by translating these materials into different
local dialects aside from the English language. These materials include
comics liquefaction, tsunami and landslides. Another example is the
PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS) poster that has both English
and Filipino translations. To illustrate possible impacts at each intensity
levels, commonly found in Filipino households and local settings &structures were used in the poster. Meanwhile, audio-visual packages suchas videos have also been prepared and have been disseminated all over thePhilippines. Meanwhile, to also address the scientific needs of both local
and international communities, PHIVOLCS published several monographs
and proceedings as well as professional papers in addition to research papersof PHIVOLCS employees published in international refereed journals.
Holding of seminars, workshops, caravans, etc. to reach out to a wider
audience:
For the last decade, PHIVOLCS held seminars and workshops that
addressed earthquake disaster preparedness. Lecturers usually include
PHIVOLCS scientists, local officials, local civil defense officials and the
media. Another approach employed by PHIVOLCS is the conduct of a
Science and Technology (S & T) caravan. This is to ensure that the target
audience which in this case are the students and teachers are given first hand
exposure to faults and other geologic phenomena they will encounter within
the caravan itinerary. Aside from this for the last couple of years, walk-in
lectures had been conducted by PHIVOLCS usually catering to more than
60,000 students and teachers. The 34 field stations/observatories of theInstitute also serve as venues for educational field trips for local students,
teachers and residents. Visiting them provide the local people first-handobservation on how seismic monitoring is done and perhaps convince somestudents to take up earth science courses in the future.
Successful use of Tri-media Support in Information Dissemination:
PHIVOLCS had also developed a special relationship with the local
and international media through frequent interactions, seminars and good
relationships that had paid off when PHIVOLCS used the tri-media indisseminating scientific information during volcanic and seismic crisis.
PHIVOLCS scientists had maintained an accessible and open attitude to themedia people resulting in a good exchange of information.
Thiscamaraderie had also helped PHIVOLCS deliver its message to the public in
an accurate manner as the communication lines between the scientists andthe media had remained open and free-wheeling through the years.
Reaching out to other sectors of Philippine society in terms ofdisaster mitigation efforts:
PHIVOLCS also implements projects that study how the women
sector can be used during earthquake disasters. As mentioned earlier,

Earthquake Risk Mitigation Efforts: The Philippine Experience

147

December 2003, Bangkok

another project is the study of how the unique cultures of tribal communities
or ethnic groups can be used for disaster mitigation.
Establishment of linkages with the academe for seismic observations:
During the development of the National Seismic Network,
PHIVOLCS has chosen to locate three seismic stations inside school
campuses so that the school’s science classes could utilize PHIVOLCS
setups in explaining how seismic observation is being carried out. Recently,
PHIVOLCS has conducted a pioneering effort to include the academe andstudents where these stations are located in the day-to-day monitoring ofearthquakes in the Philippines. The institute had started to initiate
collaborative works with at least one university in Southern Luzon, thePolytechnic University of the Philippines – Lopez campus where a seismic
observation set-up, consisting of a seismograph and its accessories, will be
installed in the future and will be operated by the faculty members andstudents of the university’s civil engineering department. Operators
underwent training in the PHIVOLCS Main Office covering topics in basic
seismology, station operation & maintenance and seismogram dissection &reporting. Eventually, with the success of this initial program, PHIVOLCS
foresee its expansion to include other universities as well, giving theacademe an active participation in the monitoring and study of earthquakes
in the Philippines.
Meanwhile, several recently-implemented collaborative projects
address the need to have both top-bottom and bottom-up approach as
possible solutions to earthquake disaster mitigation.
The Metro Manila Case Study (MMCS):
The Metro Manila Case Study (MMCS) under the Development ofEarthquake and Tsunami Technologies for the Asia Pacific Region (EqTAP)
implemented together with the Earthquake Disaster Mitigation (EdM) of the
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention(NIED) of JapanThe Development of Earthquake and Tsunami Technologies for the
Asia Pacific Region (EqTAP) project aims to adopt earthquake and tsunami
technologies applicable to the Asia Pacific region. For the Philippines, theproject selected Metro Manila and the Metro Manila Case Study wasconceptualized and implemented starting 2000. Since Metro Manila
consists of 17 cities and municipalities, the MMCS decided to focus on
three cities (Manila, Muntinlupa and Marikina) to apply EqTAP
technologies. Since the guiding principle of EqTAP is to adopt thecollaborative and consult scheme of the risk management framework,
several consultative meetings as the project was being implemented were
held among the stakeholders of the local government units, school officials
and representatives from other institutions who might be affected during alarge-magnitude earthquake.

148

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

The Earthquake Impact Reduction Study of Metro Manila (MMEIRS):
This project aims to develop a master plan for Metro Manila in theevent that a large-magitude earthquake hit the metropolis. The project has
produced seismic hazard and risk maps including calculations of loss andcasualties for a scenario earthquake. An interesting component is theholding of a community-based disaster management (CBDM) activity forthree communities in Metro Manila. In these communities, town watchingactivity and digital imagination game (DIG) were conducted. Basically,
these activities let the participants identify the hazards and risks in theircommunity while the DIG activity let them prepare scenarios based on thehazard maps. This project is being supported by JICA.
Collective Strengthening of Community Awareness for Natural
Disasters (CSCAND):This project is a collaborative project between PHIVOLCS, selected
local government units and the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP). It aims to harness community participation and raise awarenessof the hazards and risks in their community and offer solutions on how
losses can be minmized or prevented. It is an offshoot of the original
project called Crustal Stress and Community Awareness Network (CSCAN),
which was organized in 2000 in 10 selected sites in Luzon island. In 2000,
several crustal stress measuring devices were installed in different places in
Luzon to detect possible changes that could be related to earthquake activity.
The unique feature is that local volunteers are the ones doing the daily
readings from this equipment. Data are sent to PHIVOLCS and Chinesescientists for processing and analysis. Aside for their participation in data
gathering, the volunteers and other local people are being trained to look forpossible environmental precursors in their area that could be related to an
impending large earthquake.
For the past year, the project has held workshops that combine
traditional lectures and town watching activities. For Metro Manila, thegroup has embarked into the training of school officials on how to do anearthquake drill properly. Aside from this, the project have also initiatedplans to initiate the production and use of earthquake placemats on fast foodchains and for development of effective signages and directional signs in
shopping malls. Parents and teachers eating at these fast food chains are thetargets of these earthquake placemat project. We want to get their attention
at the time that they are waiting for their food orders. The placemat designoffers simple and interesting easy-to-answer quizzes, picture games andpuzzles that inform rather than frighten users. Meanwhile, at any one time,malls might host half a million people and any sudden panic caused byearthquake, power outage or any emergency might trigger stampede. This
project aims to urge mall owners and concerned officials into putting up
clear signages that could guide people on the exit signs during emergencies
in these crowded places. Another recent accomplishment under this projectis the production of a 60-sec TV/movie plug early this year that tellsaudience what to do should a strong intensity shaking occurs. The movie
plug shows various frequently visited sites within a mall and it teaches the

Earthquake Risk Mitigation Efforts: The Philippine Experience

149December 2003, Bangkok

audience what to do when shaking happens. The plug was shown in 220
cinemas and TV channels all over the Philippines.
Development of a Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System(REDAS):This program develops a computer software that can compute andsimulate the seismic hazards (ground shaking, liquefaction, landslide andtsunami) in a given area immediately after an earthquake. At the same time,the vulnerability can also be assessed since the elements at risks are also
being included in the database. This software will guide civil defense
officials and disaster managers in deciding where to deploy relief and rescue
operations after a damaging earthquake. The software can also be useful toplanners and engineers in making earthquake safe designs, land use plansand policies.
Earthquake Risk, Vulnerability and Earthquake Awareness andPreparedness of Residents in Multi-Storey Mass Housing Communities
in Metro Manila:
This is a recently-agreed collaborative project between the Philippine
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the National
Housing Authority (NHA). The main objective of the project is tocontribute towards the minimization of earthquake disasters in Metro
Manila, Philippines through the promotion of disaster awareness andpreparedness among mass housing project residents. The project will
specifically focus on multi-storey, high occupancy mass housing projects ofthe government. One provision of this collaborative project is for
PHIVOLCS to help NHA assess the vulnerability of several government
multi-storey mass housing projects which are located in areas close to theValley Fault System and in other areas of the metropolis expected toexperience high intensity ground shaking due to site amplification. The
vulnerabilities of each mass-housing project will be assessed by determining
the level of seismic hazards each project site is exposed to, by evaluating thestructural soundness of mass housing project buildings using ambient
vibration measurement and by evaluating the level of awareness andpreparedness of residents thru questionnaire surveys. PHIVOLCS and NHA
will then choose and prioritize four most vulnerable mass housing projectsites for intensive earthquake awareness and preparedness campaign. The
chosen sites will serve as a pilot study sites wherein specific earthquake drill
plans will be designed, implemented and evaluated.
Retrofitting of Structures and Implementation of Building Codes:
As a result of PHIVOLCS continuous efforts, it was able to convinceother agencies to implement retrofitting measures to important criticalinfrastructures. The mandate to do retrofitting is under another government
agency, the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). Recently,
DPWH has started the retrofitting of some flyovers in the metropolis.
PHIVOLCS also sit in as one of the bodies in charge of revising the existingbuilding codes. Last year, the active faults maps by PHIVOLCS wereincorporated in the latest version of the Structural Code of the Philippines, areferral code of the building code.

150

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.

WHAT EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUES HAVE WE LEARNED?

Musson, a scientist said that “Earthquakes are a serious threat tocommunities exposed to them, and the main aim of seismology, ultimately,is to reduce that threat”. For the past years, what we have learned precisely
through the years of finding solution to the earthquake disaster problem isthat to gain success is to strike a balance between the pursuit of scientificknowledge and letting the public use this knowledge. When scientists makesure that their results are shared and taught to the end users themselves, it
becomes the most effective way of making science work for them. This canbe done through simple, understandable language when presenting these tothem. The use of eye-catching designs and colors for exhibits and posters
had been very effective especially when dealing with students and teachers.
For teachers, we have learned how to teach them how to use teaching aids
such as gelatin and sand and water to illustrate liquefaction, wooden sticksof varying sizes to illustrate building response and popsicle sticks glued
together to illustrate building design. Building a local version of shaking
table has been another effective tool to show children how earthquake feels
and what they should do when it happens.
For higher level users like local government officials, providing themhazard maps with plotted elements at risks for their own city or town is aneffective way for them appreciate their vulnerabilities and prepare action
plan accordingly. Town watching or community watching exercises arealso effective means for them to look at the hazards in their communities
with “new eyes”. Living in one’s community for years make one get used
to the hazards. Looking at it through this activity had helped community
leaders and dwellers look at their community more objectively and think ofpossible solutions that can be done from their own capabilities or from theirlocal governments. In the CSCAND workshops and in various communitybased disaster management training course, the institute through its
collaborators in JICA and UNDP, has already went down to the community
level to impart earthquake awareness. The next step now is for them tomake their own disaster action plan based on the knowledge given them.
They have vowed that they will aim for this while we have also affirm that
the Institute will continue to contribute its technical expertise for the makingof these disaster action plans.
The tri-media is another stakeholder who must also be taught about
earthquakes and how they can help at various stages of the disaster phase.
A refreshing approach is by letting them visit active fault areas and seeing
for themselves their location and the fault’s geomorphological expressions.

4.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The road ahead challenges us to develop the updated and detailed
seismic hazard maps to address the needs of urban planners, engineers anddisaster managers. During the last decade, most of the outputs wereregional in scale. It is only during the last two years that hazard maps on a

Earthquake Risk Mitigation Efforts: The Philippine Experience151December 2003, Bangkok

microlevel has been done. The target is to do this mapping scale on otherseismically vulnerable cities in the country where risks and vulnerabilities
keep on increasing.
At the same time, the road ahead challenges us to think and devise of
new ways and techniques to reach more communities. The task is urgent
since next damaging earthquake can happen anytime. For rapid onset
events especially tsunamis, tsunami inundation maps, markers, memorials,
as well as designation of evacuation routes are possible good activities thatcan be initiated within the next five years. We will continue to find ways tocomplete the next mile to complete our mandates and to seal the efforts
accomplished during the last decades on raising earthquake awareness andpreparedness.

Dr. B. Bautista from Philippines

152

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific RegionHAZARD REDUCTION THROUGH
COMMUNITY-BASED INITIATIVES
A. HASHAM and M. BAIDULLOEVACity Coordinators for Central Asian Earthquake Safety Initiative, Dushanbe
Tajikstan

ABSTRACTThe Republic of Tajikistan is the smallest and southernmost republic of
the former Soviet Union. The country gained its independence on September
9, 1991. Since then, Tajikistan has had to deal with the dual challenges of acollapsed state-centric political and economic system along with a brutal
civil war which lasted approximately five years.
Tajikistan is also prone to a number of natural hazards and in the spanof two years, 1992-1993 experienced three out of the ten most severe
disasters between 1975 and 2000, according to the ratio of amount ofdamage to GDP. In addition to these hazards, Tajikistan is located in one of
the most seismically active zones in the world. In the 20th century alone,
Tajikistan experienced a number of major earthquakes which resulted in
substantial loss of life and damage to social and economic infrastructure.
Similar to other sectors, the collapse of the Soviet Union had aconsiderable impact on the government and local population’s generalawareness and preparedness for seismic hazards. Recognizing the potential
devastating impact of seismic hazards on major cities in Central Asia aninnovative project was initiated in April 2003 covering three major cities in
the region. One of the marked differences of this project is that while itrecognizes the role of information gathering and analysis, it has sought tomove away from seismology simply being important to scientists and making
it a concern of the general public including practitioners and decisionmakers. While the latter are important in establishing an effective enabling
environment and one which promotes seismic safety, the Earthquake Safety
Initiative is based on the principle that the emphasis must be on prevention
and preparedness and not on response. Moreover, this preparedness must
be undertaken at the household level whereby individual families must
assume ownership for their own safety and security and not on a remotestate authority. In order to achieve this, the project’s approach encourages
community-based disaster mitigation, awareness of risk and knowledge ofrisk reduction measures amongst a broad group of stakeholders, broad
community involvement, and capacity-building of existing localorganizations and institutions to engage in mitigation activities on a longterm basis.

169

December 2003, Bangkok

1.

INTRODUCTION

The Republic of Tajikistan is the smallest and southernmost republicof the former Soviet Union. A landlocked country, with a total land area of
143, 000 square kilometers, it shares borders with Uzbekistan to the west
and north, the Kyrgyz Republic to the northeast, China to the east, andAfghanistan to the south. More than 93% of the territory of Tajikistan ismountainous and only 7% of the land is arable. Over 72% of the population
lives in rural areas.
Tajikistan, one of the countries with the fastest-growing population
rate in the former Soviet Union, presently has a population of just over 6
million, with a little more than 10% of the total population residing in its
capital, Dushanbe. The country gained its independence on September 9,1991. Since then, Tajikistan has had to deal with the dual challenges of acollapsed state-centric political and economic system along with a brutal
civil war which lasted approximately five years. This has been a challenging
period of transition which has included the abrupt discontinuation ofuniversal social benefits provided by the Soviet Union, a high level of
unemployment with approximately 80% of the population living below thepoverty level, and national and regional tensions. It is only since the signingof the Peace Accords in 1997 and with the ensuing relative political,
economic, and social stability that the country has been able to fully
concentrate on addressing issues regarding its long-term development.

2.

TAJIKISTAN: HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO NATURAL
HAZARDSThe designation of the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction in 1989 was critical in highlighting the significant increase indisaster-related losses of life and livelihoods in recent years. It is estimatedthat the number of people affected by natural disasters was three times
higher in the 1990s than in the 1970s and economic losses were five times
higher. Moreover, it is expected that this trend will increase during the 21st
century with issues such as population expansion, displacement, andenvironmental degradation all contributing to increase vulnerability of
populations and infrastructure.1 Natural disasters affect all regions andcountries. However, it is clear that when such disasters occur in developing
or transition countries, they serve to undo development gains and add further
burdens on weak systems which do not have adequate capacity to respondeffectively. The end result is further economic and often social and politicalinstability.
Tajikistan, due to its geography and climate, is prone to a number ofnatural hazards. According to an Asian Disaster Reduction Centre report,
Tajikistan has experienced three out of the ten most severe disasters between
1975 and 2000, according to the ratio of amount of damage to GDP.2 In fact,
in the span of two years, 1992-1993, Tajikistan experienced two floods and170

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

one landslide which combined resulted in almost 1,600 deaths and morethan 100,000 people affected.
In addition to these hazards, Tajikistan is located in one of the mostseismically active zones of Central Asia and the world in general.3 In the20th century alone, Tajikistan experienced a number of major earthquakes
which resulted in substantial loss of life and damage to social and economic
infrastructure. The combined intensity and location of an earthquake in theWestern Pamir mountains in 1911, resulted in a massive landslide covering
the village of Usoi, backing up the Murghab river, creating Lake Sarez andthe world’s highest natural dam. Similarly, the Khait earthquake, in 1949
created a landslide which moved at a catastrophic speed and buried under it
several villages including 28,000 lives. Most recently, in 1989, an
earthquake 30 kms from Dushanbe, although measuring only 5.3 on the
Richter scale, caused a massive landslide which resulted in 274 deaths andleft more than 30,000 homeless. In addition to these high magnitude
earthquakes Tajikistan experiences a number of earthquakes of a lesser
magnitude, which may be more isolated in their impact but still serve to
disrupt the lives and livelihoods of thousands.
In recent years, the cultivation of more marginal lands and theincreased migration to urban areas, due to the economic pressures in the
post-independence era, have created conditions which multiply the
likelihood and impact of natural hazards increasing the overall percentage of
population at risk.

3.

ATTEMPTS TO MITIGATE SEISMIC HAZARDS DURING
THE SOVIET ERA

The catastrophic earthquakes of Ashkhabad (1948) and Khait (1949)
resulted in considerable resources being provided by Moscow to further
research and determine the nature of earthquake occurrence and its
forecasting in the Soviet Union.
From the early 1950s, the Soviet Union provided considerable
attention and resources to finding out more about seismic hazards including:identifying epicenters and their occurrence; determining the energy ofearthquake; learning more about the spectral composition of vibration;
determining the mechanism of an earthquake’s epicenter; learning about
seismic regime in time and duration. Much of the information collected fromthis effort is now being used as base line information for conducting further
research not only in former Soviet Union countries but throughout theworld.
As part of this increased attention on seismology, an Institute of
Seismology and Seismic Resistant Construction, which was made part of the
Academy of Sciences, was established in Dushanbe in 1951. Moreover, aworld class research centre was erected some 70 kms from where the Khait

Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

171

December 2003, Bangkok

earthquake occurred in order to conduct further research and testing ofseismic activity.
Following its inception, this research centre and the one Dushanbe
became one of the largest and most prominent seismological centers inCentral Asia. Here, a variety of investigations were undertaken, including asubstantial number of which were conducted as part of joint projects withother scientific research institutions throughout the world.
Overall, the Soviet era was important in that the awareness of andsupport provided by the central government ensured that significant
resources were prioritized and provided for the identification, monitoring,and mitigation of natural hazards. To this end, the state played an active role
in regulating and safeguarding economic and social infrastructure.

4.

SEISMIC SAFETY AND AWARENESS IN THE POSTINDEPENDENCE ERA

Similar to other sectors, the collapse of the Soviet Union had aconsiderable impact on the government and local population’s generalawareness and preparedness for seismic hazards. The collapse of the statecentered political system and the ensuing civil war in Tajikistan resulted in i)a significant lack of financial and material resources for disaster
preparedness, mitigation, and prevention measures; ii) a general shift in
attention and resources away from disaster preparedness to more pressing
needs, such as food security; and iii) loss of highly competent, professional
staff who left their posts due to security reasons or meager pay in state
institutions.
Between 1992 and 2001, of the 33 seismological stations in Tajikistan,
4 stations were totally destroyed and 15 stations located in the Garm region
were damaged and/or destroyed during the country’s brutal civil war. The
rest of the stations have lacked resources in order to maintain and operatebasic equipment. The result is that the once vibrant monitoring and analysis
which was being conducted within Tajikistan is now of a very low level.
This is of considerable concern given the country’s exposure and generalvulnerability to seismic activity.
More than the effects on seismological research, the collapse of theSoviet Union and the relatively few resources available to the newly
independent state has resulted in many more structures at risk than before.
Most buildings in Dushanbe have received very little attention in terms of
maintenance. In fact, the strains of the civil war and related socio-economic
challenges have placed greater burdens on them. The end result is that mostexisting structures are in a very poor condition with many of them being
beyond repair and unsuitable for use.
Moreover, new buildings are being constructed without adequate
monitoring from the state which lacks resources to ensure that building

172

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

codes and standards are adhered to. Compounding this situation is that in aneffort to cut time and building costs, many contractors are using poor quality
materials – often because proper materials are simply not available – ortechniques which are sub-standard resulting in buildings which do not meetseismic safety requirements.
This is all exacerbated by poor planning and chaotic building practices
within the city, a lack of access to basic information about earthquakes andtheir awareness amongst a population of which a considerable percentage
has only recently migrated from rural to urban areas, and a lack of
coordination amongst key government agencies and relevant research
institutions as to how this risk can be mitigated.

5.

EARTHQUAKE SAFETY INITIATIVE IMPLEMENTED IN
THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS

Recognizing the seismic hazards in Central Asia, in particular, theincreased exposure of major cities in the region to this threat and the needfor increased technical assistance and coordination amongst specialists anddecision-makers, a workshop was held in Almaty in 1996.4 One of the major
conclusions reached was that an earthquake of MSK IX intensity would
result in 120,000 serious injuries and 40,000 deaths in Dushanbe alone.
Moreover, more than one-half of all residential buildings in the Central
Asian capitals would likely collapse or be damaged beyond repair if exposed
to an MSK IX level of shaking.5 In addition to the deaths and injuries, thecity would experience tremendous physical destruction, with ensuingeconomic disruption, which would place even greater strains on fragile
political and economic systems.
One of the immediate impacts of the workshop was an increased
awareness and recognition that a broad group of stakeholders including
scientists, practitioners, decision-makers, and local community members
were required to work at different levels and through different channels inorder to improve the city’s overall seismic safety.
While such developments were being recognized in the field ofseismology and among key stakeholders, Tajikistan was undergoing asignificant transformation which would enable risk reduction initiatives tobe implemented with a relatively high level of success. The signing of thePeace Accords in 1997 provided an initial foundation since which time
Tajikistan has experienced considerable political, economic, and social
stability. This has allowed the country to move away from a significant
reliance on humanitarian assistance and begin to focus on and undertake
measures to foster and safeguard its long-term development. This shift has
been critical in providing an overall environment in which risk reduction
programs are recognized as being essential and therefore accepted by all
involved. One initiative which has benefited from and served to contribute tothis stability has been the Central Asian Earthquake Safety Initiative (ESI).6
The goal of this project has been to reduce the vulnerability to earthquakes

Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

173

December 2003, Bangkok

of three major cities of Central Asia: Almaty, Kazakhstan; Dushanbe,
Tajikistan; and Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
One of the marked differences of this project from previous projects
implemented in Tajikistan is that while it recognizes the role of information
gathering and analysis, it has sought to move away from seismology simply
being important to scientists and making it a concern of the entire generalpublic including practitioners and decision-makers. While the latter areimportant in establishing an effective enabling environment and one which
promotes seismic safety, the ESI is based on the principle that the emphasis
must be on prevention and preparedness and not solely on response.
Moreover, this preparedness must be undertaken at the household level
whereby individual families must assume ownership for their own safety
and security and not on a remote state authority. In order to achieve this, theproject’s approach encourages community-based disaster mitigation,awareness of risk and knowledge of risk reduction measures amongst abroad group of stakeholders, broad community involvement, and capacitybuilding of existing local organizations and institutions to engage in
mitigation activities on a long-term basis.
The goal of the ESI has been to convey to the general public thatmitigation is not a task reserved for specialists, but rather, everyone's
responsibility. For this reason, it is imperative that knowledge acquired by
specialists not simply remain in computers or specialized, scientificpublications but that such knowledge be disseminated to as wide anaudience as possible and in a manner and format which can be accessible toall. Through this interaction, one objective is to increase the awareness of
citizens who are, in turn, able to demand policy changes from public
officials.

6.

ACHIEVEMENTS TO DATE

During its first year, the ESI focused on four key activities. The firsthas been to identify and involve all key stakeholders in meetings in order toinform them of the project, its objectives, and opportunities as to how eachstakeholder can get involved and make a noticeable contribution to theproject. Thus, through a number of meetings, individuals from thegovernment, including the Ministry of Emergency Situations and Civil
Defense, research institutes such as the Institute of Seismology and Tajik
Technical University, and international and local organizations actively
involved in disaster reduction initiatives came together in order to discusschallenges and opportunities related to the project. This gathering wasimportant in order to establish and foster bonds amongst a number ofindividuals from different spheres and specializations to come around acommon concern with a common objective. This was something quite
innovative given that disaster preparedness and general crisis management
was something that was previously the exclusive responsibility of the state.
By bringing together this diverse group of individuals, the project was able

174

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

to meet one of its key objectives: namely creating a working group which
would come together and work effectively with a high level of cooperation.
In order to coordinate the activities of the stakeholders, a City
Coordinating Unit was identified: Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS).
FOCUS was chosen given that it has considerable experience in working
with local communities and authorities in the area of risk reduction in rural
areas of Tajikistan. Overall project management and technical assistancewould be provided by GeoHazards International (GHI) which has
considerable experience in implementing seismic safety initiatives and isconsidered as a lead agency in the field.
A second key output of the first year was the development of an Urban
Risk Reduction Framework. The Framework provided a quick overview as
to what was being done at various levels (namely at the community,
provincial, national and regional levels) by different stakeholders in order toreduce the potential impact of natural hazards. In addition to providing an
outline of what is being done, the Risk Reduction Framework highlights
what is not being done in order to increase seismic safety. Moreover, theRisk Reduction Framework also serves as a baseline survey in order to
identify not only what is done directly through the ESI but also otherinitiatives which may be direct or indirect offshoots of the project throughthe awareness and capacity that it generates.
The third impact of the project is that it has served to identify andfurther develop the skills of local practitioners involved in disaster risk
reduction initiatives, either working for the government or implementing
agencies. In order to provide the stakeholders an understanding of what the
project could achieve, a number of them traveled to Turkey in order to visit
activities which have been implemented there by GHI and its local partners.
What was unique about this study tour is that it involved participants fromall three Central Asian republics involved in the project. Thus, the project
has been successful in not only fostering relationships amongst various
stakeholders within individual countries but has also created strong working
relationships throughout the region.
The fourth major output of the project in its first year has been thedevelopment and adaptation of key training materials which were initiallydeveloped and piloted in Turkey. This includes a training seminar for Basic
Disaster Awareness and a 20 page handbook. The seminar targets mastertrainers who through a cascade model will be able to reach a broad numberof other trainers. These trainers will, in turn, disseminate the materials andinformation directly to the beneficiaries – namely local community
members.
During the development of these materials, close attention was paid toensure that the text and images selected for the documentation would besuitable for the local context. In order to reach the maximum number ofindividuals and ensure that the materials are accessible to local communities,

Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

175

December 2003, Bangkok

it has been agreed that the materials will be developed first into Russian andthen into the local languages of the three Central Asian republics.

Figure 1: An example of materials developed and modified for the
local context
One unique feature of this project is that the materials have beendeveloped with key involvement from a number of stakeholders. This hascreated a strong working relationship amongst the partners as well as anindividual sense of ownership amongst each contributing agency. Thus,
when the materials will be finalized it will not be simply the product of anindividual or one agency but a collective committed to reducing the impactof seismic hazards.

7.

FUTURE ACTIVITIESAs part of its activities for the second year, GHI and FOCUS will
provide training to master trainers from agencies interested in using thematerials developed as part of this project. This will ensure that the message
and the method in which it is delivered are common and trainers areappropriately familiar with all of the material and its content. By ensuring
the quality of the materials and the training of trainers, the project is able towork with a large number of disseminating partners and reach as broad of an
audience as possible.
Moreover, in order to reach other sectors of the population, the projectwill develop more specialized materials in the second year. The first will
target schoolchildren and an exciting exercise book outlining key basic
disaster awareness principles will be developed along with a corresponding
activity guide for teachers. In addition to targeting schoolchildren, throughthe Risk Reduction Framework, it became clear that institutes of higher
learning could also benefit from the project. Thus, in the second year of the
project, FOCUS will lead a workgroup in collaboration with faculty at Tajik
Technical University to localize the curriculum developed in Turkey. The

176

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

curriculum will include: basic disaster awareness, non-structural mitigation,
structural awareness, community emergency response team skills andcommunity outreach and planning. This partnership with a major Tajik
university is critical in ensuring that future professionals trained in theengineering faculty will receive exposure to concepts such as communitybased mobilization and non-structural mitigation – concepts which
traditionally have not been part of the curriculum previously.
In the third year, the project will focus on ensuring that the materials
developed continue to be disseminated to as broad an audience as possible
covering all diverse sectors of society. Thus, there will continue to be
training of trainers to ensure the quality of the training workshops. This ispart of the overall objective of strengthening local institutions and theircapacity to identify and implement risk reduction initiatives.

8.

CHALLENGES TO AND LESSONS LEARNED FOR
EFFECTIVE RISK REDUCTION

Overall, to date, the project has been very well received and there isgreat enthusiasm from all the partners and stakeholders. In many ways, it has
served as a model for broader risk reduction initiatives and not simply those
focusing specifically on seismic hazards.
However, through the implementation of this project, the agencies
involved have also identified one major challenge. The most striking
challenge is that there are a large number of buildings that are highly
vulnerable to significant seismic activity. Given the high costs of retrofitting
or demolishing and reconstruction, it is unlikely that this is something thatwill be resolved in the short- to medium term. This is of considerable
concern given the high level of seismic activity in the region and therecurrence of major earthquakes which serve to increase the overallvulnerability of these cities. Recognizing this limitation, the project has
sought to encourage people to undertake those measures, such as nonstructural mitigation efforts, which are possible for the majority of the
population to complete in the short-term and are highly effective. For
example, based on evidence following the earthquake at Izmit, Turkey in
1999, it was clear that many injuries occur due to a lack of adequate
planning and simple measures such as fastening large furniture in homes
could prevent certain injuries sustained during and after an earthquake.

9.

CONCLUSIONThe Central Asian Earthquake Safety Initiative is a very exciting andambitious project in that it has sought to gather individuals from thescientific community, diverse government agencies, local communities, andinternational and local implementing agencies to work on a common
concern through “collective solutions”. Although managing these
relationships has been challenging at times, given the social, economic andHazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

177

December 2003, Bangkok

political context of Tajikistan and the transition which it is undergoing, theproject and the manner in which it has sought to be participatory andemphasize consensus-building have been quite successful. Consequently, theRisk Reduction Framework and the emphasis on preparedness rather thanresponse offer many lessons which can be adopted in other risk reduction
initiatives and not simply those which focus on seismic hazards.
ENDNOTES
1“Natural Disaster Risk Reduction: The Policy and Practice of Selected
Institutional Donors,” A Tearfund Research Project, July 2003.
2
Asian Disaster Reduction Centre Biweekly News, February 18, 2003.
3
Please see Appendix B below for a list of all major earthquakes which haveoccurred in Tajikistan between 1888 and 1991.
4
The proceedings of this workshop are published in “Seismic Hazard andBuilding Vulnerability in Post-Soviet Central Asian Republics,” editedby King, Stephen; Khalturin, Vitaly; and Tucker, Brian; NATO Science
Partnership Sub-series, February 1999.
5
Please see Appendix C below for a list of Structural Types, theirOccupancy Total in Dushanbe, and the Expected Damage Levels
6
The project is funded through a cooperative agreement between the UnitedStates Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and GeoHazards International (GHI). The
project will last three years (October 2002-September 2005).

178

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

APPENDIX A:
THE IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES
GeoHazards International (GHI) was established in 1991 as a nonprofit
organization dedicated to reducing death and injury caused by natural
hazards in the world's most vulnerable communities. Thus, the organization
has developed considerable capacity in his area targeting the cities ofdeveloping countries which are the least prepared to cope with theearthquake risk that increases exponentially with population density.
Recognizing that the needs of the people who live in such vulnerable
communities have been virtually ignored, GHI developed and is
implementing a four-step plan to reduce future death and injury fromearthquakes in the developing world. The steps are i) raise awareness, ii)
reduce the identified risk, starting with the community's most criticalservices, iii) assure that new construction is earthquake resistant and iv)
encourage involvement of local experts engineers, scientists and government
officials with their counterparts abroad.
Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS) is an international group ofagencies established in Europe, North America, and South and Central Asia
that have developed a specialization in disaster preparedness, mitigation,
prevention and disaster response. FOCUS is an affiliate of the Aga Khan
Development Network (AKDN). The AKDN is a federation of institutions
whose collective mandate embraces health care, education, ruraldevelopment, micro-finance, promotion of private sector commercial
enterprises, research and learning, and applied art, culture and architecture.
All member agencies of the AKDN share a common objective: to empower
people to take charge of their own lives and environments in order to expand
their opportunities and choice. The programs emphasize community
participation, local expertise, rigorous management of resources, use of
appropriate technology and ultimate self-sufficiency. Active in Tajikistan
since 1997, FOCUS has implemented a variety of initiatives including
training for local communities, strengthening government capacities to
respond to emergencies (targeting the Ministry of Emergency Situations andCivil Defense), and implementation of various projects designed to mitigate
natural hazards and increase local preparedness.

Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

179December 2003, Bangkok

APPENDIX B:SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE IN TAJIKISTAN 1888-1991
Date
1888
1895
21.10.1907
21.10.1907
21.10.1907
18.02.1911
28.12.1923
16.09.1924
22.09.1930
31.08.1934
8.10.1935
14.10.1935
30.05.1939
20.04.1941
26.04.1941
6.05.1941
19.05.1941
11.01.1943
12.01.1943
12.01.1943
10.07.1949
23.01.1954
22.09.1956
4.01.1958
16.10.1963
2.02.1965
31.01.1977
3.03.1981
29.09.1982
26.02.1983
26.10.1984
13.10.1985
22.01.1989
5.03.1990
29.03.1990
25.03.1990
26.04.1991

180

District
KairakumKarategin
KaratagKaratagKaratag
Sarez
Shahristan
Karategin
Faizabad
Argankul
Argankul
Argankul
Karategin
Dashti Khirson
Dashti Khirson
Dashti Khirson
Jirgatal
FaizabadFaizabadFaizabad
Khait
RoshtkalaRange of Peter I
Range of Peter I
Center of Pamir
Southeast of Pamir
Isfarinsk
Northeast of Pamir
Southeast of Pamir
Range of Peter I
JirgitalKairakum
GissarSouthern Pamir
Northern Pamir
Range of Peter I
Miyonadu

Intensity
8
8-9
9
9-10
7-8
9
8
8
8-9
8-9
7-8
8-9
9
7-8
7-8
7-8
8-9
8-9
8-9
9-10
8
7-8
8
8
7-8
7-8
7-8
7-8
7-8
7-8

Mag.
6.3
5.4
7.4
7.3
6.2
7.4
6.4
6.4
5.7
6.5
6.1
4.9
5.8
6.5
5.5
5.6
6.0
5.5
4.7
7.4
5.8
4.5
5.5
6.5
6.0
6.1
5.4
5.4
5.3
6.2
6.0
5.3
6.0
5.6
5.9
5.9

ImpactLake Sarez formed.

28,000 people died.

274 people died

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

APPENDIX C:Structural Types, Their Occupancy Total,
and the Expected Damage Levels

STRUCTURAL TYPEOCCUPANCY%
Thousa Urban
nds
Population

1. Unengineered structures,
including small adobe
1,200
and
unreinforced
masonry buildings
2. Brickbearing-wallsystems with wooden
floors, one to twostories, pre- 1955
3. Brickbearing-wallsystems with precast
reinforced concrete (RC) 1,400
floors, three to fivestories, pre- 1957
4. Brickbearing-wallsystems with precast RC
floors, some seismic
detailing, post- 1957
5. Precast RC frames withwelded joints and brick400
infill walls, four to ninestories20%

DAMAGE LEVELMSK VII

MSK
VIII

Heavy
damagePartial to
Total
total
collapsecollapse

Moderate
Partialto heavy
collapse
damage23%

MSK IX

Total
collapse

Heavy
Slight todamagePartialmoderate
to partial collapse
damagecollapse
No
Moderate
damageheavy
to slight
damagedamageModerate
heavy
damageHeavy
damageto partial
collapse
Heavy
damageto partial
collapse

7%

Slightdamage

6. Precast RC large-panel
systems with dry or wet 1,800
joints30%

No
Slight toModerate
damagemoderate
damageto slight
damagedamage7. Other

1,300

20%

-

Total

6,100

100%

Hazard Reduction through Community-Based Initiatives

-

-

181

December 2003, Bangkok

Presenters at the Workshop…

Ms. M. Baidulloeva from Tajikstan

Prof. S. Cherry from
CanadaMr. M. Matovu and
Mr. B. M. Ajuoga
from Uganda

182

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

SEISMIC RISK AWARENESSACTIVITIES IN UGANDA
B. M. KIGGUNDU and E. M. TWESIGOMWE
Uganda Seismic Safety Association
UgandaABSTRACT
Uganda Seismic Safety Association (USSA) owes its origin to the WSSI
Board Meeting of 25th April 1997. At this meeting a decision was taken to
hold the 8th WSSI High Level Meeting in Kampala, Uganda. The Kampala
Meeting was held 1-2 December 1997. Among the resolutions made was thedeclaration that Uganda was to become the Focal Point for Earthquake
Disaster Information in the African Continent. It was then realized that anorganization was required to fulfill this resolution. Hence, USSA wasformed in April 1998, with the major objective of networking, throughsharing information related to earthquakes, and increasing publicawareness.
USSA is a non-governmental organization recognized by Uganda
Government and is the 50th member of the International Association for
Earthquake Engineering (IAEE).
USSA organizes annual seminars/ conferences and has so far held twonational seminars and two International Conferences. The first seminar
was held in 1998 on the theme “Earthquake Disaster Reduction” and thesecond one was held in 2000 on the theme “Earthquake Resistant Low-cost
Housing. Both seminars were held in Kabarole District, which is one themost earthquake affected Districts in Uganda. The first international
conference was held in Kampala, December 2000, on the theme “Reducing
Earthquake Effects in Developing Countries”. The second conference washeld in Entebbe, December 2002, on the theme “Earthquake Hazards in a
Developing Country”.
USSA publishes a Newsletter with two issues per year. Other activities
of USSA includes: Development of guidelines for earthquake resistant (lowcost) construction in Uganda, under Ministry of Works, Housing andCommunications; Drafting of the National Disaster Policy under the
Ministry of Disaster Preparedness and Refugees, in the office of Prime
Minister; Development of building codes that take into account seismic
forces, under Uganda National Bureau of Standards.
Members of USSA involved in research have participated indevelopment of a design code, assessment of seismic hazard (development ofseismic zone map for Uganda) and material selection for construction inearthquake areas of Uganda. In training, one member has completed M.Sc
program and two are now doing their Ph. D programs.

183

December 2003, Bangkok

1.

INTRODUCTION

The African continent is dominated by one major geological feature,
the East African Rift System (EARS), stretching from the Red Sea and Gulfof Aden in the north to the Mozambique Channel in the south. Uganda lies
between the two branches of EARS, the Western Rift and the Eastern Rift.
It is mainly the Western Rift that is associated with seismic activity in
Uganda.
The most earthquake- prone districts in Uganda are located in theWest, as can be seen in Figure 1. These districts have experienced moderate
earthquakes some of which have caused damage or destruction to some of
the buildings and death to humans.

Figure 1: Seismicity of Africa: 1977-1997. The square shows position of
Uganda.
There are a number of government departments and non-governmentalorganizations (NGOs) that are involved in the awareness-promotion
programs in order to address the mitigation, the preparedness, the response,
and recovery aspects in the event of an earthquake disaster. One suchorganization is the Uganda Seismic Safety Association (USSA), which is184

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

spearheading the dissemination of earthquake related information in the
country.

2.

8th WSSI HIGH LEVEL MEETING, KAMPALAAt the World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) Board Meeting on 25th
April 1997, a decision was made to hold the 8th WSSI High Level Meetingin Kampala, Uganda. This High Level Meeting was to be the first of its
kind on the African continent and was held on 1 – 2 December, 1997 at the
Uganda International Conference Center, Kampala – Uganda.
This 8th WSSI High Level Meeting was graced by His Excellency the
President of the Republic of Uganda, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. The HighLevel Meeting which was locally termed Kampala International 8th WSSIHigh Level Meeting was attended by four members of the WSSI Board of
Directors namely; Prof. Haresh Shah, Prof. T. Haavaldsen, Assoc. Profs,
Ken Sudo and Kimiro Meguro. Local participants included Cabinet
Ministers, senior government policy makers, researchers, consulting
engineers, insurance agents, community leaders, media agents, businessleaders and university students.
Some of the highlights in the opening address by the President were
(Proceedings, 1997):• Uganda was honored to host the 8th WSSI High Level Meeting.
• Uganda has had its share of earthquakes citing 2-earthquake eventsin Uganda namely the 1966 Toro earthquake (M= 6.7) causing deathof 130 people, injuring 1300 people and destroyed 7000 houses. The
total damage was estimated at U.S $1.7million; the second being 5th
February 1994 – Kisomoro earthquake (M=6.0) leading to 8 people
dead and damage to property worth U.S $60million. The President
stated that the country was still grappling with the consequences ofthis earthquake.
• The President stated that following the 1994 earthquake, he took
interest being in charge of the country to educate himself about thephysics of earthquakes.
• The country is to expect new infrastructural developments like highrise buildings, which would house large populations increasing thevulnerability index.
• Uganda was a participating member of the UN Disaster Management
Training Program. In 1994 following the occurrence of theearthquake, it was recommended to formulate disaster Management
Policies.
• The President showed great interest in making Uganda a geographic
focus for spreading the message of awareness and preparedness in
sub-Saharan Africa.
A significant resolution from this 8th WSSI High Level Meeting was
to make Uganda a Focal Point for earthquake disaster related information in

Seismic Risk Awareness Activities in Uganda

185

December 2003, Bangkok

sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, it was recommended that a seismic risk
reduction program involving safeguards for mitigation of earthquake
disasters should be set up in Uganda.

3.

IMPACT OF WSSI ON UGANDA’S AWARENESS

3.1

Political Impact

The President of Uganda has since 1997 made pronouncements
regarding inclusion of earthquake effects in design and construction ofbuilding infrastructure and most recently (2nd February 2003) when he waslaying a foundation stone for a 16-storey Church House along KampalaRoad. The President said “I hope that this building has plans to insulate itagainst earthquakes”. He also recently requested for formulation of a
Cabinet Paper, which is to be tabled before the Executive following whicha bill will be formulated for Parliamentary debate. Once it passes
Parliament, it will become an Act of Parliament which will be endorsed by
the President. Once it’s endorsed, then it will be mandatory for any
developer to inculcate earthquake effects in the designs and hence
construction.
3.2

Inauguration of Uganda Seismic Safety Association (USSA)

Following the conclusion of the 8th WSSI HLM High Level Meetingin Kampala and in particular the Focal Point resolution, the Uganda
Seismic Safety Association (USSA) was born in early 1998. The executive
committee consisted of Kiggundu, B. M. (Chairman); E. M. Twesigomwe,
Vice Chairman/Treasurer; Okoka Obomba, Public Relations Officer; John
S. Kintu, Secretary and Members: Booker Ajwoga and U. Bagampadde.
Some of the major USSA objectives are: promotion of research on
issues related to reduction of earthquake effects, to raise public awareness;disseminate knowledge through seminars, conferences, etc. and contributeto Policy Development on disaster preparedness and management including
enforcement of building regulations and guidelines.
3.3 Activities of USSA
3.3.1 First National Seminar
In December 1998, the USSA carried out its first national seminarwhich was held in the most seismically active district of Uganda, Kabarole
in Fort Portal town. The theme of the seminar was: Earthquake Disaster
Reduction and was attended by Policy makers (both central and local
governments), engineers, architects, scientists, contractors, religious leaders,school administrators, community leaders and general public.
The main resolution from this seminar was the need to establish
earthquake resistant building guidelines for the region. It was also resolved
to hold this seminar at least once every two years. The local government

186

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

promised to make budgetary allocations hence forth towards enhanced
awareness.
3.3.2 Commencement of Research Efforts
In 1998, humble research efforts commenced in the Department ofCivil Engineering, Makerere University towards development of a designcode. This effort was undertaken by Musoke, A. whose result has beentaken over by the Uganda National Bureau of Standards to formulate thecode in the appropriate format.
3.3.3 Holding 1st International Conference, Kampala, Uganda
Preparation for the first International Conference on the theme
Reducing Earthquake Effects in Developing Countries followed thecompletion of the first national seminar and took place on 4th –5th December
2000. This conference brought in delegates from Norway, Italy, Japan,
Africa and locally Uganda.
This conference was graced by Prof. Edward Rugumayo, Minister ofTrade, Industry and Tourism and closed by Major Tom Butime, Minister ofDisaster Preparedness and Refugees in Prime Minister’s Office.
Resolutions at the end of this conference included: Holding this seriesof conferences bi-annually or 2-year intervals, completion of the designcode, enhanced awareness creation, development of training materials, etc.
3.3.4 Development of a National CodeNumerous members of the USSA were invited to participate informulation of the design code along with consultants, members of the
Uganda National Bureau of Standards and Uganda Institution ofProfessional Engineers. A member of USSA chairs this TechnicalCommittee on Building Codes.
The code is soon ready but only pending the agreed upon seismic
zoned map of the country and approval by the Uganda National Bureau ofStandards governing council.
3.3.5 2nd National Seminar
The second seminar was organized on the theme Earthquake
resistant low cost housing and was successfully held in Fort Portal in
December 1999.
The seminar was attended by both Central Government and Local
Government officials, members of District Disaster Committees of Kasese,
Kabarole and Bundibugyo Districts, school administrators, researchers,builders and general public.

Seismic Risk Awareness Activities in Uganda

187

December 2003, Bangkok

3.3.6 Holding 2nd International Conference Entebbe, Uganda
The second International Conference was held in Entebbe at Windsor
Lake Victoria Hotel on the theme: Earthquake Hazards in a Developing
Country. The conference was held in December 2002.
This conference was well attended with foreign delegations from
Norway, Libya, (World Islamic Call Society), local Ugandans who
consisted of policy makers, researchers, scientists and many University
undergraduate students.
The conference was opened by 1st Deputy Prime Minister andMinister for Disaster Preparedness and Refugees who said on behalf ofGovernment that “efforts of USSA were commendable and should be
supported by Government in order to develop sound knowledge packages
towards protecting the development efforts of Ugandans”. In fact following
this conference and his brief to His Excellency the President, the Minister
was requested to prepare a Cabinet Paper for subsequent discussion incabinet. The paper is before the Cabinet for consideration.
This conference was closed by Mr. John Nasasira, Hon. Minister ofWorks, Housing and Communications.
3.3.7 3rd National Seminar
A 3rd National Seminar has been planned for 5 – 7th December, 2003
on the theme “Earthquake Disaster Preparedness: Which Way Forward
Uganda”. The venue is Fort Portal and expected Guest of Honor is 1st
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Disaster Preparedness andRefugees.
3.3.8

Partaking Research Studies in Japan
In the year 2001-2002, two members of USSA were sponsored forstudies in earthquake engineering and seismology under the sponsorship of
the JICA Program of Japan.
The two members benefited greatly and were attached to theInternational Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering (IISE) of
Japan. The courses were specifically taken at the Building ResearchInstitute, Tsukuba Science City, Japan.
3.3.9

Training Program at Makerere University
One member (Adolf Kahuma, 2002) completed a Master ofEngineering Degree Program in the area of Material Selection forConstruction in an Earthquake Area of Uganda (various sand materials
studied).
Two members of USSA are pursuing PhD studies in earthquake
engineering in a sandwich program between Makerere University andNorwegian University of Science and Technology. The two proposed PhD
areas are:• Mujugumbya, Paul:

188

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5•

Prediction of Kampala’s building stock’s response on earthquakes.
Moses Matovu Jr.:
Development of computer based model for seismic response andcapacity evaluation of existing buildings in Uganda.

4.

PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL EVENTS

4.1

East Africa 99 Disaster Conference

USSA was asked by government to forward 2 names of members to
be part of a government delegation to the Conference in Nairobi, Kenya in
January 1999.
Kiggundu, B. M. and E. M. Twesigomwe formed part of about 20member delegation and upon reaching the venue, a USSA member was
voted to lead the delegation. Leadership meant preparing a statement about
the state of Disaster Preparedness in Uganda.
Major developments included need for sound disaster policies inparticipating countries as well as concerted efforts to provide definite
resources and implementable plans to combat disasters.
4.2

RADIUS project

Kampala City was one of the cities that participated in RADIUS“Understanding Urban Seismic Risk around the World” project.
Mujugumbya Paul, a member of USSA, was the Kampala City
representative. He also participated in the RADIUS symposium that took
place in October 1999 in Tijuana, Mexico.
4.3

Seismic Risk Assessment for Kampala

Following the completion of RADIUS project, it was released that
more data on Kampala was required. The parameters on which more
information was required include the likelihood of experiencing anearthquake, the quality of city’s buildings, and the readiness of emergency
preparedness teams in the city. Therefore Earthquake Risk Assessment for
Kampala was undertaken by four students from of Norwegian University of
Science and Technology assisted by Mujugumbya. The major conclusions
from this study were that (1) low death toll under GeoHazard International
scenario will result if the City experiences a moderate earthquake, (2) mostof the public buildings would suffer damage that will require extensive
repairs or replacement.
The analysis was based on the city experiencing peak groundacceleration of 0.1 (%g) in 50 years.
The following recommendations were made (Aarseth et al, 2002):• Improve earthquake preparedness for Kampala;

Seismic Risk Awareness Activities in Uganda

189

December 2003, Bangkok

•
•
4.4

New buildings be designed to withstand earthquakes; andMicrozonation studies be undertaken.
International Interdisciplinary Observer Team on the Bhuj
Earthquake

USSA was afforded the rare opportunity to be part of the uniquereconnaissance team which was sent to witness and document lessons for
future generations on the aftermath of the Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India.
This was a unique and unforgettable exposure to awesome aftermath
destruction by Mother Nature through earthquakes of man-madeinfrastructure! USSA through the Chairman applauded the unique
opportunity.
4.5

Participate in the 2nd Bangkok Workshop on Asia-Pacific Region

B. M. Kiggundu, the Chairman of USSA was invited to participate in
the workshop. During the participation, a status report was presented about
the activities of the USSA in Uganda. This workshop was a good learning
opportunity about the extent of earthquake disasters the world over
especially in the Asia-Pacific Region.
4.6 Participation in Japan
One member (Kusemererwa, P. R, 2003) independently wrote a paper
entitled “Urban Disaster Mitigation and Environmental Impact Assessmentof Urbanization in Uganda, Proceedings of the Second International
Symposium on New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia,
University of Tokyo, Japan, October 30-31, 2003” and was presented to theconference in Tokyo, Japan.
This member solicited independent funding to cover and present theabove paper.
He has intimated an interest to pursue a Masters degree in Urban
Earthquake Mitigation Engineering at the University of Tokyo, but has nofunding to meet the anticipated cost or the study.

5.

OTHER ACTIVITIES OF USSA

5.1

Participation in Development of Building Guidelines for
Earthquake resistant (low-cost) Construction in Uganda

The Ministry of Works Housing and Communications of Uganda
established a National Task Force to which USSA has members.
The first report of the Task Force was presented at the 2nd
International Conference in Entebbe. The guideline is ready and its

190

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

inauguration together with model housing plans is anticipated thisDecember 2003 in Fort Portal.
5.2

Publication of USSA Newsletter

USSA introduced a newsletter in 2001 with 2 issues per year.
Problem of keeping pace with the regularity is the voluntary nature ofcompiling articles continues to front the USSA.
5.3

Participation in Drafting the National Disaster Policy

A couple of members of USSA were co-opted to numerous workshops
to discuss development efforts of a national disaster policy.
The Draft Policy is already drafted to cabinet level.

6.

RECOGNITION BY GOVERNMENTUSSA was recently informed that government was about to formalize
our relationship to government. The relationship once established shall behoused in the Prime Minister’s office and be subject to receive funding forour recurrent operations.
This development will also lead to a Secretariat which will requirecapacity support from good friends.

7.

AREAS OF SUPPORT FOR USSA

The following areas are arranged in order of priority to benefit the
USSA and hence the country:
7.1

Training

Training needs are in the following areas at postgraduate level:• Earthquake engineering- 1 to 2 Masters degrees• Seismology- 1 to 2 Masters degree• Social Seismology- 1 to 2 Masters degree• Support to International Conferences - especially WCEE, etc.
• Research support – local research efforts to address local researchneeds.
7.2 Equipment
Equipment is required for field and the secretariat.
Field equipment include ground motion sensors. Currently Uganda
National Seismic Network consists of five stations, three of which are

Seismic Risk Awareness Activities in Uganda

191

December 2003, Bangkok

equipped with short period seismometers and two with broadband
seismometers. The plan is to increase the density of the network. Thus moreseismometers and accelerometers are required.
Secretariat equipment needs include computers with accessories, GIS
software, digitizing table and printers.

8.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTUSSA wishes to thank the organizations and departments that havestimulated and supported it in carrying out its activities. They include:
WSSI, WHO, UNESCO, NUFU, Italian Co-operation Program, World
Islamic Call Society, Ministry of Works, Housing and Communications,
Ministry of Disaster Preparedness and Refugees in Office of Prime Minister
and Makerere University.

REFERENCES
1.

2.
3.

4.

Aarseth, Lars Cristian, Kleppe, O. J., Storvik, V. and Thomassen, R.
M., 2002. Earthquake Risk Assessment of Kampala, Uganda. M.Sc.
Thesis, Noryegian University of Science and Technology.
USSA, 1997. Earthquake Disaster Preparedness, Proceedings 8th WSSIHigh Level Meeting, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Kahuma, A., 2002. An investigation of Relative Suitability of Sand
Deposits for Construction of Earthquake Resistant Systems in
Kabarole, Kyenjojo and Kamwenge Districts. M.Sc. thesis, Makerere
University.
Kusemererwa, P.R, 2003. Urban Disaster Mitigation andEnvironmental Impact Assessment of Urbanization in Uganda,
Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on New
Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia, University ofTokyo,

Dr. B. M. Kiggundu
from Uganda

192

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
AND EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
IN VIETNAM
N. H. PHUONG
Hanoi Institute of Oceanography
National Centre for Natural Science and Technology
Vietnam

ABSTRACTThis report gives an overview of what have been done in Vietnam in
the field of seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment. It also points out theactions required in the near future.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Seismic risk assessment, mitigation and management in earthquake
research are are still way behind in Vietnam. While the methodology andtechnique for seismic hazard assessment in the country has reached a highlevel, the study on such a level of high practical value as earthquake risk isstill in its infancy.
It is the time for Vietnam, a country prone to large earthquakes and acountry which has more than four decade of history on earthquake research,
to take action on a earthquake disaster preparedness plan.
This report gives an overview of what have been done in Vietnam in
the field of seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment, so far. It also
highlights the actions required in the near future.

2.

EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH IN VIETNAM:
STATE OF THE ART

2.1

Seismicity

Vietnam is known as a country with rather high seismic hazard level.
Two earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 have occurred during the 20th Century in
the northwestern part of the country, while offshore Vietnam, a volcanic
earthquake of magnitude 6.1 was recorded in 1923. As well, there is a
growing understanding of the active faults in some places in North Vietnam
and on continental shelf of the country, which indicates that they may
generate as large earthquakes as any that occurred during 20th Century. A
comprehensive catalog compiled for 1900 onwards shows a high seismic193

December 2003, Bangkok

activity in the northern part (inland) and in the central part (offshore) of thecountry (Fig.1). However, since all the largest earthquakes have occurred inremote areas, far from the urban and development centers, they were notrecognized as the devastating ones.

Figure 1: Seismicity of Vietnam and adjacent areas
2.2

Seismograph stations

Although the first event was recorded within Vietnam in 1903, thefirst seismograph station in Vietnam was established in Phulien in 1924.
However, only after 1975, with synchronic operation of 5 seismographstations, the seismic events occurred in North Vietnam have been
determined by equipment. At present, Vietnam has a network of 15
seismograph stations, which consists of a telemetry array of 6 stations andother 9 of 3-comp. stations. All stations are short-period PC-based digitalrecording ones. As majority of earthquakes have been observed in North
Vietnam, the telemetry array and six 3-comp stations are installed in thenorthern part, while three other 3-comp stations are in the southern part ofcountry. Some main parameters of the station network are shown in table 1.
The seismograph network of Vietnam monitors the seismic events ofmagnitude exceeding 3.0 in North Vietnam and exceeding 4.0 in the wholecountry.

194

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Table 1: Site information of the Seismograph Network of Vietnam
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Stationname
Phu Lien *Bac Giang*
Tam Dao*
Chua Tram*
DoanHung*
Ba Vi *Sa Pa
Lai ChauDien Bien
Son LaHoa Binh
Vinh
Hue
Nha Trang
Da LatLatitude
Deg min
20 48.36
21 17.41
21 27.88
20 56.29
21 37.61
21 06.13
22 20.30
22 02.32
21 23.38
21 20.03
20 47.77
18 32.88
16 25.01
12 16.00
11 56.69

Longitude
deg min106 37.81
106 13.65
105 38.74
105 41.33
105 11.03
105 22.12
103 50.11
103 09.26
103 01.10
103 54.30
105 20.32
105 42.00
107 35.13
109 11.66
108 28.91

Elevation,
m
90
15
1200
50
70
182
1150
1100
480
700
80
5
8
5
1550

Seismometer
L-4C-1D
L-4C-1D
L-4C-1D
L-4C-1D
L-4C-1D
L-4C-1D
L-4C-3D
LE-3D
LE-3D
L-4C-3D
L-4C-3D
LE-3D
LE-3D
LE-3D
LE-3D

Note:
Tam Dao* - Station of the telemetry array
L-4C
Short-period Seismometer (Mark Product)
LE-3D
Short-period Seismometer (Lennartz Electronic)
2.3

Strong motions records

Although strong earthquakes have been recorded, ground motion data
was not available in Vietnam for a long time. The first accelograms within
Vietnam were obtained only since the year 2000, among which the mostvaluable is the ground acceleration data recorded from the Dien Bien
earthquake of February 19th, 2001 (Ms=5.3) and five other events (Ms=4.04.9).
The lack of ground acceleration data makes the development of local
attenuation function impossible. Up to now, the seismic hazard assessmentfor Vietnam has to be based on the functions developed by foreign
investigators, for different regions outside Vietnam.
2.4

Earthquake Hazard Assessment

A reliable, up-to-date earthquake hazard assessment is an essential
tool in national disaster mitigation in the sense that it sets out theappropriate design levels that can ensure safe, cost-effective construction. In
the long term, a national building stock that is appropriately designed will
prove a sound investment, in the mitigation of future disaster.
Earthquake has been studied in Vietnam since the last 60’s of the 20th
Century. The four-decade history of earthquake hazard assessment in
Vietnam can be divided into two periods, which reflect two different

Earthquake Hazard and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Vietnam

195

December 2003, Bangkok

approaches on methodology used: the deterministic and the probabilistic
ones.
During the first period (1968-1985), deterministic methods were used
for quantitative assessment of seismic hazard, with a widely recognized atthat time assumption that, for a certain region, there exists an “average”
seismic regime, which is constant during a long, geologic period of time.
Results were presented in the form of various maps, showing spatial
distribution of parameters of the seismic regime such as seismic activity,
seismic shakeability, etc. The most typical maps of this period were seismic
zoning maps.
The weaknesses of deterministic approach are well understood, and it
has become accepted that a probabilistic one should be preferred for seismic
hazard assessment in Vietnam. The second period (1985 up to now)
characterized by a remarkable change, with the use of probabilistic methods
in all stages of seismic hazard assessment process. Such statistical methods
as Gumbel’s extreme-value distributions, maximum likelihood method havebeen used for estimation of the hazard parameters of source zones. The
Cornell-McGuire method has been used for compute probabilistic seismic
hazard maps for Vietnam in terms of peak ground acceleration for a given
probability level.
Some research works, typical for the two periods of seismic hazard
assessment process in Vietnam, are described below.
2.4.1 Seismic zoning map
Seismic zoning map of Vietnam, which was compiled in 1985 (PhamVan Thuc and Nguyen Dinh Xuyen (editors), 1985), is a inheritance andupdate from existing seismic zoning schemes of North Vietnam (Rezanov
I.A. and Nguyen Khac Mao, 1968) and South Vietnam (Le Minh Triet et al.,1980). Both seismic shaking zones and seismogenic zones are depicted on
this map. For each seismic zone, a set of parameters such as expected
maximum magnitude Mmax and average focal depth h are indicated. Coupledwith large-scale seismic microzoning maps, compiled for specific sites orurban areas, the seismic zoning map of Vietnam has been used for a longtime as references for planning and construction design purpose.
2.4.2 Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Vietnam
Pham Van Thuc and Kijko A. (1985) first applied the “truncated”
Gumbel’s type I distribution to predict recurrence period and maximum
expected magnitude for the whole territory of Vietnam within theframework of the Southeast Asia. Nguyen Hong Phuong (1991) applied theGumbel’s type I and III distributions for estimation of hazard parameters forseven earthquake source zones of Vietnam, then predicted the occurrence
probabilities of maximum earthquakes for North and South Vietnam during
various periods of time.
The first probabilistic seismic hazard map of Vietnam was compiledin 1993 (Nguyen Hong Phuong, 1993). Based on a seismotectonic

196

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

regionalization of Vietnam, Cornell’s probabilistic method and McGuire’s
EQRISK program were used for compiling the map in terms of peak groundacceleration. In developing this map, probabilistic models were used inmany stages, including earthquake data processing, hazard parameter
estimation and computation of hazard. In addition to extreme-value
distributions, the maximum likelihood method was applied to estimation of
the source zones parameters as well. The PGA maps have been updated
afterwards by adding the source zones to take into account the shakings
generated from the countries adjacent to Vietnam, and from the South China
sea (Nguyen Hong Phuong, 1997; Nguyen Hong Phuong, 2003b).

Figure 2: Probabilistic Hazard Map of Vietnam and adjacent areas, interms of Peak Ground Acceleration (% gals), with 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years

3.

EARTHQUAKE RISK MANAGEMENT IN VIETNAM

3.1

Earthquakes: not a highest priority disaster in Vietnam

Even with the events of magnitude 6.7 or higher observed in Vietnam,
earthquakes are not consider as a disaster with highest priority in the
country. As mentioned above, all earthquakes occurred in Vietnam are notdevastating since their epicenters are located far from the urban or industrial
areas. Meanwhile, typhoons, landslides and floods are very frequentdisasters in Vietnam, and they cause a great deal of losses. In 1996 acrossall provinces about 1000 people were killed while damages totaled 655

Earthquake Hazard and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Vietnam

197

December 2003, Bangkok

million dollars. Many thousands of people in the Eastern provinces ofVietnam were affected in 1997 with damages of 600 million dollars.
3.2

Organizations, responsible for disaster management in Vietnam

At present, two organizations responsible for disaster management in
Vietnam are the National Committee for Search and Rescue and the Floodand Storm Standing Commission. The National Committee for Search andRescue (establish in October, 1996) is part of the Ministry of Defense and is
led by the Vice Minister of Defense. The Committee consists of 25
members who are primarily expert officials. Working with the Committee isthe Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ministry of Defense, Civil Air
Transport, Information Center, Ministry of Fisheries, Ministry for Fuel,Power and Energy, Agency for Water Canals, and Administrations in 61
cities. The main duties and tasks of this Committee are to arrange and bringstandardize the activities of all Ministries, agencies and local
administrations during any disaster where search and rescue is required.
The responsibility of the Flood and Storm Standing Commission is toprovide all necessary information to assist the preparedness and response of
the Search and Rescue Committee and to implement measures to mitigate
any flood-and-storm related disasters including the implementation of donor
funded projects that support mitigation measures.
So far, the Search and Rescue Committee and the Flood and Storm
National Emergency Commission are the backbone of the disastermanagement institutions at national level in Vietnam. The National
Committee for Search and Rescue conduct their operations under a statepolicy to mitigate/prevent natural disasters and decrease damage and losses
by strengthening the national ability for the mitigation of disaster damages.
Recently, the government of Vietnam decided to implement a projectto strengthen disaster management in Vietnam, with the assistance of 1.3
million dollars from UNDP, and 2.4 million dollars from the USAID Officeof Foreign Disaster Assistance. However, as described above, most project
activities are focusing on flood-and-storm related disasters.
3.3

Earthquake Hazard Related Organizations

Organizations having the same interests in earthquake hazard
assessment and earthquake risk management in Vietnam can be divided into
three groups: The research institutions, the organizations with constructional
functions and the universities.
3.3.1 National Centre for Natural Science and Technology (NCNST)
This is a national research centre, which consists of more than twenty
research institutions specialized in many fields of science and technology.
Leading seismologists of Vietnam are working in Institute of Geophysics
and Hanoi Institute of Oceanography, which belong to the NCNST.

198

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Institute of Geophysics controls the network of seismograph stations,is responsible for earthquake observation, earthquake data processing andexchange, earthquake catalog compilation. It is also responsible for seismic
hazard assessment and training young scientists, mostly seismologists.
Hanoi Institute of Oceanography has some departments, which are dealing
with seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment, and also study ofearthquake-related phenomena, such as volcanoes and tsunamis.
3.3.2 Ministry of Construction
Institute of Construction Design and Technology and Institute ofConstruction Standards, Ministry of Construction are organizations, whichstudy the safety of building stocks under seismic load and contributeconsiderably in proposing building regulations, standards and codes.
3.3.3 Universities
University of Mining and Geology, University of Construction havecontributed to training and education in the earthquake- related fields.
3.4

Building Codes

In 1997, the Ministry of Construction of Vietnam has issued a
Building Regulations of Vietnam. This document provides no more than justsome information on natural conditions, which can affect the construction
sites in the territory of Vietnam. Presented information includes building
climatology, wind pressure, typhoons-flooding, meteorology and hydrology,
thunders-storms, earthquakes, engineering and hydrological geology,
saltiness of sphere, etc.
Considerable contribution to development of a building code forVietnam comes from scientists from Institute of Construction Design andTechnology. In 2002, a project has been implemented on Development of a
Anti-seismic building standards for constructions in earthquake-prone
regions. However, it will take time for the standards to come to life.
Until now, a comprehensive building code is not available forVietnam. Anti-seismic designs for constructions is, therefore, arbitrarily
applied and based on foreign building codes.
3.5

Earthquake Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation:
A BreakthroughThe year 1999 has marked a start for a new direction in earthquake
research in Vietnam. The earthquake risk at the regions, vulnerable toseismic shakings, have been studied. World experiences have been learned
to develop an appropriate methodology for earthquake risk assessment
procedure for various regions of Vietnam. In addition, GIS technology has
been used for development of a decision support system, a GIS based toolfor earthquake hazard assessment and loss estimation (Nguyen Hong
Phuong, 2003a).

Earthquake Hazard and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Vietnam

199

December 2003, Bangkok

The seismic risk assessment methodology has been applied to adowntown district of Hanoi, and results are presented in the form of maps
predicting building damage and casualties in the study area caused byscenario earthquakes. Results of risk assessment and loss estimation havemade a strong impression on the Hanoi community and Press, as they draw
quite a close-to-reality portrayal of how the urban community might sufferfrom the future earthquake.

Figure 3: Mapping the probability of damage states of building stocks in
Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi: extensive damage

Figure 4: Estimation of Casualties for Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi

200

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

4.

LESSONS LEARNEDThe following actions are required for Vietnam in the near future:• Raising public awareness: Earthquake hazard and earthquake risk arestill not awarded not only among the community, but also among
many governmental officials and decision makers. In order to havereadiness both spiritually and materially against the risk, educationand training should be carried out at many levels, in different forms.
In addition to the community education, convincement of thegovernmental authorities of earthquake risks and hazards is as wellcrucial, given the fact that earthquake hazard is currently considered
the third as priority only, after storm and flood hazards, among thenatural disasters.
• Enhancement of collaboration among the institutional bodies andorganizations who have interests in and/or functional responsibilities
for earthquake risks & hazards management: Currently the relatedorganizations are almost operating within their respective specialized
fields and in isolation from each another. There seems to be an
incomplete communication and interaction among the geophysicists,
civil engineers and specialists, and the community. It is obvious thatthe development and implementation of any action plan for risk
mitigation and management could not be efficient without close
collaboration among the respective organizations. This shortcoming
should be overcome as soon as possible in the near time.
• Strengthening of the related organizations’ capabilities: This work
would include investment to upgrade the facilities, infrastructure,training of specialists, encouragement of the research projects inearthquake hazard assessment and loss estimation, earthquake risk
management etc. Efforts and works in strengthening theorganizations’ capabilities will also aim to continue and complete all
the works that have not yet been achieved during the past few years,
such as the development of an Anti-seismic building code forconstruction in Vietnam.

5.

VIETNAM AND THE WORLD SEISMIC SAFETY
INITIATIVE

In order to help Vietnam to build up readiness in responding to any
potential earthquake hazards, and given the necessities as addressed above,it is hoped that Vietnam will obtain effective support from WSSI in thefollowing areas:• Establishment of a coordinating body who’s function will be tocoordinate all the activities related to seismic safety, seismic hazard
mitigation and management for Vietnam. This body would be locatedat a research institution such as the National Centre for Natural
Science and Technology, and would be equipped with necessary

Earthquake Hazard and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Vietnam201

December 2003, Bangkok

facilities so as to be able to manage, update, process and provide
access to all the information, data and results of earthhquake hazards
assessments, and earthquake risk management plan for the users. In
the long run, this body would be developed to assume a broader
function including site monitoring and survey, as well as technolofy
transfering in the area of earthquake hazard and risk assessment. The
ADPC model is a typical example to illustrate.
• Development and implementation of a joint programme/project toassess earthquake risk and develop a response plan for the community
between Vietnam and a foreign counterpart, ideally with a partnerfrom a developed country who has experiences in earquake hazard
assessment and mitigation, and earthquake risk management.
Initially this programme would be focusing on earquake hazards
assessment for the urban communities.
• Support Vietnam to accelerate the process to join IAEE.

REFERENCES
1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.
8.

202

Pham Van Thuc, and Nguyen Dinh Xuyen, 1985. Seismic zoning mapof the territory of Vietnam. Unpublished report, Institute ofGeophysics.
Rezanov, I.A., and Nguyen Khac Mao, 1968. Seismic zoning of North
Vietnam. Contributions of Meteorological Department, Hanoi.
Le Minh Triet, Vo Dinh Ngo, Dang Nam Trung and Dang Mau Phong,1980. Seismic zoning of South Vietnam. Contributions in Geophysics,
Hanoi.
Pham Van Thuc and Kijko A., 1985. Estimation of maximum
magnitude and seismic hazard in southeast Asia and Vietnam, Acta
Geophysica Polonica, Vol XXXIII, No4, 377-387.
Nguyen Hong Phuong, 1991. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake
hazard in Vietnam based on seismotectonic regionalisation,
Tectonophysics, 198 (1991), 81-93.
Nguyen Hong Phuong, 1993. Probabilistic Seismic hazard map ofVietnam, Technical Report, Smith Institute of Physics of the Earth,
Moscow (in Russian).
Nguyen Hong Phuong, 1997. Probabilistic earthquake hazard
assessment for the territory of Vietnam and adjacent regions,
Proceedings of the NCST of Vietnam, Vol.9, No1 (1997) 115-130.
Nguyen Hong Phuong, 2003a. Spatial Analysis Models as Applied to
Seismic Hazard Evaluation, Advances in natural sciences, Vol.4, No3.
Nguyen Hong Phuong, 2003b. Earthquake hazard maps of Vietnam
and the East Vietnam sea, Journal of the Earth’s Sciences (submitted).

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

JICA’S DEVELOPMENT COOPERATIONFOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTERREDUCTION
M. WATANABE
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

ABSTRACTThe paper introduces major projects and programs which have been
implemented in an attempt to reduce vulnerabilities to seismic impacts tosocieties region-wide, nation-wide and for communities at risk.
The projects address technology transfer for planning, institution
building, implementation and equipment provision while programs focus onhuman resources development and their networking.
JICA’s initiatives have been welcomed and made considerable success,but it seems disasters due to seismic impacts have been increasing in termsof number of events and magnitude of damage. Furthermore, vulnerabilities
to seismic impacts are still growing world-wide due to, chiefly, quick
urbanization and poor preparedness.
Major reasons of the above unfavorable circumstances can be
identified as follows;
1) too much emphasis has been put on engineering aspects of initiatives fordisaster reduction,2) poor understanding on applicability of the results of initiatives fordevelopment cooperation,3) inappropriate composition of proposed projects,4) inadequate skills for project management,5) shortage in funds due to lower priority setting
In order to make the projects and programs more persuasive,
applicable, effective and so that successful the projects and programs must
be worked out and implemented in the following manner;
1) put much more emphasis on socio-anthropological and socio-politicalaspects of disasters,2) promote sound understanding of a target community and a society forwhich technology and skills are transferred,
3) for the above purposes, analysis on the resources and capacity must be
conducted,4) the composition of a project must be comprehensive5) the size of a target community of a project must, as the first step, be small
in order to keep an eye on all the changes in the course of project
implementation,6) set a project term long enough to make it sustainable,

203

December 2003, Bangkok

1.

INTRODUCTION

It must be clearly recognized that the initiatives for hazardlessenvironments, no matter what a hazard is, require funds. In another word,
hazardless environments, especially in terms of seismic risks, cannot be
achieved without investing considerable amount of funds no matter how
effective low-cost measures would be applied. It is therefore the mostserious contradiction that those who need the initiatives for hazardlessenvironment the most are always suffering from funds shortage.
On the other hand, people specialized in disaster mitigation andpreparedness likely to transfer system or technology available in adeveloped country to a target society in developing countries without
considering its resources and capacity. Initiatives aiming at larger disastercoping capacity are not always the same as the ones to fill the gaps and avoid and not same as a market operation to meet the demand. The author
tries to evaluate, based on the above views, some of the projects andprograms so far conducted and implemented.

2.

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT STUDY

2.1 The Study on Disaster Prevention in Bogota, Columbia
The Study on Disaster Prevention in Bogota, Columbia was conducted
in response to the request from the Columbian government in the period
from 1998 to 1999. The objectives of the study were to assess thevulnerabilities of the capital city of Columbia and to work out a plan fordisaster prevention and preparedness in the area of Bogota and surrounding
areas. The area has been rapidly urbanized because of mainly massive
migration from rural areas associated with the long-lasting conflicts among
the Government force and the unti-government guerilla forces.
An estimated increase in population in a year in average is more than
100,000. Expansion of the urban areas has been so quick that the city andprefecture authorities couldn’t afford to cope with it by building proper
infrastructure and exercising proper regulations for urban planning.
The major hazards are estimated to be earthquake and flood. It is
pointed out that, because large fuel tanks and petrol refinery had beensurrounded by residential houses, a strong seismic impact might trigger firedisasters.
The core of the disaster prevention and preparedness plan are threefold; infrastructure building, institution building and promotion ofawareness to hazards among inhabitants in the areas at risk.
Although disaster mitigation and preparedness administration are
directed by civilian officers, all the officers except the Director, areemployed on a fixed term (one year) basis because of funds shortage.

204

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Capacity to cope with growing vulnerabilities be therefore hardly built nomatter how intensively a training seminar is organized. Institutions proposed
and newly built hardly be in operational because of unstable personnel
management.
2.2

The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu
valley, Kingdom of Nepal

The Study was conducted in the period from January 2001 to
March 2002. The Study is characterized by clearly specified objectives asfollows;(1) to protect life and property in Kathmandu Valley,(2) to strengthen the society and economy,(3) to secure governance in case of an emergency due to earthquake.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the following three projectcomponents were set up;(1) an earthquake disaster mitigation plan,(2) technology transfer to Nepalese counterparts,(3) building a database on related issues and damage assessment
As a result, the damage was assessed as follows;
totally damaged houses 53,000. (21% of the houses and buildings)
casualties 18,000 (1.3% of the population in the valley)
wounded 53,000 (3.8% of the population in the valley)
In order to make proposed coping mechanisms operational andsustainable the following supporting schemes are proposed;(1) to build a jurisprudence for risk and emergency management,(2) to build a coordination mechanisms by establishing a permanent
structure such as the state disaster coordination copuncil,(3) to put higher priority on the disaster mitigation and preparedness
policies and confirm it in the 10th 5 years State Developing Program,(4) to empower local autonomous bodies for emergency management,(5) to promote public awareness to earthquake disasters, and to give support
to target groups for resilient capacity on a self-help basis.
In order to satisfy the above targets and based on the experiences andfindings in the course of the study, the following 4 projects, among as manyas 90, are proposed with special emphasis;(1) an information system for quick and efficient collection, transmission
and distribution of seismic data and emergency management
information,(2) a disaster management system for Kathmandu City,(3) increase in seismic-resistant performance of buildings(4) comprehensive database for earthquake disaster mitigation andprepared-ness practices.
Each of the projects and programs proposed is however hard, rather
difficult, for either Government, a community or individuals to practice and

JICA’s Development Cooperation for Earthquake Disaster Reduction

205

December 2003, Bangkok

implement because of, among many others, chiefly, extreme fund shortage
and poor incentive.
Initiatives for disaster mitigation and preparedness must be taken, insuch a least developed country, must be taken on not a demands-wise
approach but a capacity-wise approach. A demand-wise approach starts withchiefly needs and demands assessment disregarding availability of resources
and capacity, while a capacity-wise approach starts assessing capacity andresources available, mobilized and expected.
In the case of a demand-wise approach, in most cases, the conclusionand proposals are therefore likely to be a picture of pie in the sky or, if worst
comes to worst, a copy of the system working in developed countries.

3.

GRANT AID ASSISTANCE

3.1

The Seismic and Volcanological Monitoring Network Project in
the Philippines

In view of tectonic active and high vulnerable nature of the Philippines,
in terms of natural and social settings, and high skills in research works
performed by Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS), it was concluded, after the preliminary study and subsequentdiscussions with the officers concerned of the Philippines Government, thatover-aged monitoring equipment must be replaced and the existing
monitoring networks must be expanded and strengthened.
The first phase of the program was implemented in 1999 and thesecond phase was implemented in 2003. The program consists of seismic
sensors, systems for data transmission, logging, analysis and backup, andpower supply. The systems covers the entire territory and have been
providing all stakeholders with data and information on an earthquake,tsunami and volcanic activities.The systems will serve the state and societies
for not only emergency management but also preparedness by making themost use of data acquired by strong motion meters.
3.2

Equipment Supply for the Center Projects

The Center Projects have been implemented aiming at promoting
earthquake engineering research and strengthening the capacity for disastermitigation in Peru (1986-1991), Mexico (1990-1996), Turkey (1993-2000),
and Roumania (2002-2007). Along with the Center projects, similar projects
aiming at joint research works have been implemented in Indonesia (19801986), Chile (1988-1991, 1995-1998), Egypt (1993-1996), and Kazakstan(200-2003) in cooperation with the staff of universities, state research
institutes and consulting engineers.
The equipment provided cover broad area of research and practices
ranging from image processor, audio-visual machines, grand survey

206

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

machines, heavy duty machines, actuator, stress and strain meters, tension
and compression units, vibrator, seismometer (strong motion andmicrotrometer), boring machine and computers with soft wears.

4.

CENTER PROJECT FOR ENGINEERING RESEARCH AND
DISASTER MITIGATIONThe Center Projects have been launched aiming at promoting
engineering research and disaster mitigation practices covering not only thecounterparting country but also neighboring countries with similar
hazardous settings. Each of the Centers is expected to be in operational after
expiration of the project term.
Evaluation missions dispatched by JICA confirmed that, all thecenters so far completed have been in operational fairly well andsustainability in terms of financial management and organizational build-up
are fairly satisfactory, but , in some cases, sustainability in terms of researchcompetence and engineering expertise got downgraded to some extent
because of brain-drain due to transfer and migration.

5.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SEISMOLOGY AND
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING (IISEE)International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering(IISEE) had been founded in September 1963 based on the resolution of the
Economic and Social Committee of the United Nations and ran jointly by
the Government of Japan and UNESCO. Since then, the Building ResearchInstitute of Ministry of Construction, recently restructured as Ministry ofLand and Transportation, has been playing, in cooperation with JICA, major
and successful roles in organizing courses in the Institute in Japan,
counterparting countries for the Center and third countries such as Indonesia
and Egypt, and running the website, IISEE-net.
The number of trainees who had completed the courses comes to
1,186 from 89 countries and working as leading specialists in universities
and research institute in their respective countries and internationalorganization such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treasty
Organization (CTBTO).

6.

DISCUSSIONS

Successful risk management, disaster mitigation and preparedness canbe achieved by the following initiatives;
1) elimination of root causes of vulnerabilities to hazards,
2) reduction in vulnerabilities to hazards,
3) proper monitoring practices on hazards,
4) human resources development,

JICA’s Development Cooperation for Earthquake Disaster Reduction207

December 2003, Bangkok

5) public awareness promotion and6) raising living standard.
The above initiatives, if taken on a comprehensive and timely manner,
result in higher disaster coping capacity of a society and community, but if
some of them would be taken inconsistently, a project will be in vain andmust finish in complacency.of the officers in charge. Furthermore the resultof a project must be a picture of pie in the sky. Considering the above
thought, every initiative must be taken in conformity with the development
stage of a target society or community.
Initiatives for capacity building of either individuals or organizations
must be taken considering the posts, roles, incentives and rewards. A projectand program for capacity building must have ripple effects among thepeople concerned because jobs for risk management, disaster mitigation andpreparedness should be done on a “ONE FOR ALL AND ALL FOR ONE”
basis.

Mr. M. Watanabe from JICA

208

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OFISTANBUL IN THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
M. TAKAHASHI and T. TANAKAOyo International Corporation
Japan

ABSTRACTAn example of JICA’s projects for earthquake disaster risk reduction
is presented. Urgency of establishing strategies and measures to reduce therisk for Istanbul is highlighted. Processes of risk assessment of Istanbul,
which included 1) data collection and preparation of database and maps, 2)
hazard assessment, 3) risk analysis, 4) vulnerability analysis, and 5)
assessment of disaster management capacity of Istanbul, were demonstrated
by using the GIS maps. Recommendations to improve capacities ofpreparedness and to advance measures for risk reduction for Istanbul isbriefly described.
Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards,
Assessment, Disaster Risk Reduction

1.

Vulnerability,

CopingCapacity,

Risk

INTRODUCTION

The recent earthquakes have claimed many thousands of lives andcaused material losses in the tens of billion dollars. Urban seismic risk is
rapidly increasing, particularly in developing countries, where a number ofmega-cities are located. Once an earthquake strikes a large city, the damage
can be tremendous, and furthermore, a terrible toll will be inflicted as divert
attention and resources needed for the greatest challenges of the developing
countries, i.e. poverty eradication and sustainable development.
Since 1999, under the technical assistance program JICA has
implemented the earthquake disaster management projects for several
earthquake prone cities, namely Teheran of Iran (Ref. [1]), Kathmandu
Valley of Nepal (Ref. [2]), Bogotá of Colombia (Ref. [3]) and Istanbul ofTurkey (Ref. [4]), and is now carrying out the studies for Manila ofPhilippines, Caracas of Venezuela and the second phase of Teheran.
Traditionally, in the disaster management the focus has been placed on
preparedness for response. However, in the JICA projects efforts is shifting
to developing disaster reduction strategies and measures with an aim toenable societies to be resilient to earthquake disasters and to minimizing athreat to both poverty eradication and sustainable development.
In the projects, first and foremost, the risk assessment, consisting of
hazard, vulnerability, and risk analyses and evaluation were carried out.

209

December 2003, Bangkok

Based on the risk assessment the disaster reduction strategies and measures
was developed by the holistic approach, namely multi-sectoral, multidisciplinary and inter-agency approach. Local participation during theprocess of development was crucial as the previous experiences clearly
demonstrated that local government was the most effective player of in-front
activities as well as citizen’s capacity was effectiveness.
In this paper the study for Istanbul (Ref. [4]) is briefly described as an
example of JICA’s projects for earthquake disaster risk reduction.

2.

BACKGROUND OF ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE DISASTERRISK REDUCTION PROJECTIn 1999, two large earthquakes occurred around Izmit and Adapazari,
and caused tremendous damage to human lives and properties in the area.
These earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) which islarge scale fault line formed more than 1,000 km long from east to west in
the northern territory of Turkey. Historically, many strong earthquakes
occurred along this fault line. There are obvious phenomena that theepicentres of these strong earthquakes are migrating from east to west along
the NAF and it is pointed out that another big earthquake may hit Istanbul,
which is located at the western edge of the NAF.
Istanbul is one of the biggest cities in the Middle East, representing acentre of economic, industrial and tourist destination of the modern Turkey.
Therefore, once a big earthquake hits Istanbul, it will be a catastrophic
national emergency of Turkey. In order to manage the potential earthquake
disaster in Istanbul, it is necessary to prepare a seismic disasterprevention/mitigation plan, emergency rescue plan and restoration plan ofthe earthquake stricken area from middle to long-term points of view.
The objectives of the study are 1) to integrate and develop seismic
microzonation studies in Istanbul as scientific and technical basis fordisaster risk reduction planning, 2) to recommend a citywide risk reduction
program against damage of buildings and infrastructures, 3) to recommend
risk reduction considerations in urban planning of Istanbul City and 4) topursue technology transfer of planning techniques to Turkish counterpart
personnel.
The study area and an epicentral distribution of earthquakes during
1905 and 2001 are shown in Figure 1.

3.

RISK ASSESSMENT OF ISTANBUL

3.1

Data collection and preparation of database and maps

Basic data required for the risk assessment were collected andprocessed. A database was constructed and maps were prepared using GIS.

210

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Data on natural conditions included topography, geology (Figure 2), soils,
and earthquakes, such as tectonic setting, seismic setting, damaged
earthquakes, earthquake catalogues (Figure 1), strong motion records andearthquake damages. Demography (Figure 3) is the main information ofsocial conditions. Data on buildings (Figure 4), infrastructures, major urban
facilities, and hazardous facilities were processed and mapped for the risk
assessment.
Besides collecting and compiling the existing data, geological investigation
and building survey were carried out.
Study

Figure 1: Study area and epicentral distribution of earthquakes,1905– 2001

Figure 2: Geology of the study area

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

211

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 3: Population density by mahalle, 2000

Figure 4: Building density by mahalle, 2000
3.2

Hazard assessment

For selected scenario earthquakes ground motion, liquefaction
potential and stability of slopes were assessed and their distribution maps
were prepared.

212

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.2.1 Scenario earthquakes
As summarized in Table 1, four (4) scenario earthquakes wereselected to supply sufficient variation of damages for disaster risk reduction
planning. The selection of the earthquakes was based on the discussions
with relevant institutes / researchers and on recent huge amount of researchworks on North Anatolian Fault (NAF). These scenario earthquakes arelocated along NAF in the Marmara Sea and their difference was the lengthof fault segment.
Table 1: Scenario earthquakes
Scenario earthquake Model A Model B Model C Model D
Length (km) 119 108 174 37
Moment magnitude (Mw) 7.5 7.4 7.7 6.9
Dip angle (degree) 90 90 90 90
Depth of upper edge (km) 0 0 0 0Type strike-slip strike-slip strike-slip normal fault
3.2.2

Ground motion
Based on the fault models, peak acceleration, peak velocity andacceleration response spectrum at bed rock level were estimated withselected empirical attenuation formulae that could reproduce well theobserved data during 1999 Izmit earthquake. Subsurface amplification was
calculated by amplification factors, which were given by an average S wave
velocity over the upper 30 m of surface soil. The amplification factors were
multiplied to get the peak ground acceleration (Figure 5), peak ground
velocity and acceleration response spectrum at the ground surface.
3.2.3

Liquefaction potential and stability of slopes
Liquefaction potential (Figure 6) and stability of slopes were
evaluated and presented by a unit of 500 meter square grid, which was used
for ground motion calculation.
Distribution of Peak Ground Acceleration : Model C
En Yük se k Zemin Ýv m es i Da ðýlýmý : M odel C
Bla c k Sea

903

26
23

6

16
13

902

904

19
20

8

2

26
10

5

7

9

30

15
14
3

2

4

29

12

32

Marma ra Sea

17

21

1

Legend18
22

Dis trict B oundary
Highway
Fault : Model C

PGA (gal)
500 - 600
400 - 500
300 - 400
200 - 300
100 - 200

1

Mo

0

3

6

9

12

15 Kilo meters

de
l_

C

1

1

28

N

W

E
S

THE ST UDY ON A D ISAS T ER P REV EN TIO N / M IT IGAT IO N B ASIC PLAN
IN IST AN BUL INC LU DING S EISM IC M ICR OZONA T IO N
IN TH E RE PUB LIC O F TU RKE Y
Istanbul M etr opolitan M u nic ipality (IM M )Ja pan Inte rna tional C ooper ation Ag ency (JIC A)
Source : J ICA Study T e am

Figure 5: Distribution of peak ground acceleration, scenario earthquake
Model C

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

213

December 2003, Bangkok

Silivri

Distribution of Liquefaction Potential : Model CSývýlaþma Potansiyelinin Daðýlýmý : Model C

904

26
23

Çatalca

6

16
13

902

19
20

8

2

26

903

10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

29

12

32

Marm ara Sea

4

17

LegendDis trict B oundary IMM, Geological Map, 1:5,000
Highway
Yd
Sd
Liquefac tion Potential
Qal
Model C
Ksf
Very High
MTA , Geologic al Map, 1:25,000
Relatively High
Q-21-kRelatively Low
IMM, M aster Plan, 1:50,000
Very Low
Oa
No Enough Data
Q

21

0

2

4

6

THE STUDY ON A D ISAS TER PREVEN TION / MITIGATION BASIC PLAN
IN ISTAN BUL INC LU DING SEISMIC MICR OZONATION
IN TH E RE PUBLIC OF TU RKEY

810 Kilometers

1

N

18
W

E
S

22
1

1

1

28

Istanbul Metropolitan Munic ipality (IMM)
Japan International C ooperation Agency (JICA)
Source : J ICA Study T eam

Figure 6: Distribution of liquefaction potential, scenario earthquake
Model C
3.3

Risk analysis

Damages of buildings, human casualties, and damages of major public
facilities, lifelines and bridges were estimated for the scenario earthquakes.
3.3.1 Buildings
The buildings, registered by the building census 2000, were classified
by structure, floor number and construction year, and then damages were
estimated for each classification of the buildings. Damages were ranked as“heavily-”, “moderately-” and “partly-damaged” and presented by thesmallest administrative unit, mahalle (Figure 7).
3.3.2 Human casualties
Assuming the major cause of human casualties was from building
collapse, firstly, number of deaths was estimated by an empirical
relationship between building damage and death toll, and then number ofsevere injuries was estimated by using an empirical relationship between
death toll and number of injuries. The estimated results were presented by
district (Figure 8).

214

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5
Silivri

Ratio of Heavily Damaged Building : Model CAðýr Hasarlý Binalarýn Oraný : Model C

904

26
23

Çatalca

6

16
13

902

19
20

8

2

26

903

10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

Legend29

1232

Marmara Sea

4

17

District Boundary
Highway
Fault : Model C
Ratio of Heavily Damaged
Building (%)
Model C
40 - 50
30 - 40
20 - 30
10 - 20
5 - 100-5
No Data

21

0

2

4

6

8

10 Kilometers

1

N

18
W

E

22
1

S

1

Mo
de
l_C

THE STUDY ON A DISASTER PREVENTION / MITIGATION BASIC PLAN
IN ISTANBUL INCLUDING SEISMIC MICROZONATION
IN THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

1

28

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Source : JICA Study Team

Figure 7: Ratio of heavily damaged building by mahalle, scenario
earthquake Model C

Silivri

Number of Dead People : Model C
Ölü Sayýsý : Model C

904

26
23

Çatalca

6

16
13

902

19
20

8

2

26

903

10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

32

29

12

Marmara Sea

4

17

LegendDistrict Boundary
Highway
Fault : Model C
Number of Dead People
Model C
6000 - 8000
4000 - 6000
2000 - 4000
0 - 2000

21

0

2

4

6

8

10 Kilometers

N

1
18

W

E

22
S

THE STUDY ON A DISASTER PREVENTION / MITIGATION BASIC PLAN
IN ISTANBUL INCLUDING SEISMIC MICROZONATION
IN THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

1

Mo
de
l_C

1

1

28

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Source : JICA Study Team

Figure 8: Number of dead people by district, scenario earthquake
Model C3.3.3 Major public facilities
Damages of the major public facilities were estimated. Those werebuildings of 1) educational facilities: primary and high schools, 2) medical
facilities: hospitals and policlinics, 3) fire fighting facilities: fire fighting

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

215

December 2003, Bangkok

station, 4) security facilities: district police (İlçe emniyet), police andgendarme (Jandarma) and 5) governmental facilities: ministry, provincial
and municipality. Damage ratios are presented in Figure 9. The ratios ofmajor public facilities were found similar to those of the other buildings
with an exception of lower value of the fire fighting facilities. However, it
does not mean the fire fighting facilities are stronger than other buildings.
3.3.4 Fires
Fire outbreaks from the hazardous facilities would cause catastrophic
effects to the neighbouring area. Possibility of fire outbreaks from thefacilities, such as fuel filling station, LPG filling station, warehouse ofchemical products and factory of paint and polish products, was estimated,
rated and mapped by mahalle (Figure 10). Fires also occur after theearthquake from cooking stove, heating system, electric leakage and shortcircuits, etc. of private housings and public buildings. Since most of thebuildings of Istanbul were constructed by brick and concrete and thecovering area by wooden buildings was less than 10 % in all of the mahalles,
a possibility of catastrophic fire by flame propagation was assessed not very
high (Ref. [6]).

M ode l C
50%

40%

40%

M oderately

A ll B uildings

Governm ental

Heavily

S ec urity

A ll B uildings

0%

Governm ental

0%

S ec urity

10%

Fire Fighting

10%

M edic al

P artly

20%

Fire Fighting

20%

30%

M edic al30%

E ducational

Dam age Ratio %50%

E ducational

Dam age Rat io %M ode l A

Figure 9: Damage ratio of manor public facilities
3.3.5 Infrastructures
Damages of water pipeline, sewage pipeline, gas pipeline, gas service
box, electricity cable (Figure 11), and telecommunication cable were
estimated and presented as either number of damaged points or total length
within a 500 meters grid. The estimations were made by the statistical
approach using empirical damage functions obtained from the previous
earthquakes.
3.3.6 Bridges
Damage of bridges, defined as falling-off of the girder, was evaluatedby Katayama’s method (Ref. [5]), in which the bridges were scored byinspection of the bridges, drawings and specifications. Total of 480 bridges

216

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

were evaluated and ranked as shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Estimated number of damaged bridges, falling-off of the girder_________________________________________________________

Scenario High Moderate Low
Earthquake probability probability probability_________________________________________________
Model A 18 3 459
Model B 20 4 456_________________________________________________________

Figure 10: Fire outbreak from hazardous facilities by mahalle, scenario
earthquake Model C
Electricity Cab le Dam ag e Leng th (km ) : M o del C
Has arlý Elek trik H a tlarýnýn Uzun lð u (k m ) : M ode l C

26
23

6

16
13

90 2

19
20

8

2

26
10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

Le ge n d

32

29

12

M arm ara Se a

4

17

Dis trict B ou n da ry
Hig h w a y

Elec tric it y C a ble D am a g e
len g th (km ) :Mo de l C
4- 5
3- 4
2- 3
1- 2
0- 1
No C a ble
No D a ta

21

0

2

4

6

8

10 Kilo m eters

N

1
18

W

E

22
S

TH E ST UD Y O N A D ISAS T ER P R EV EN TIO N / M IT IG AT IO N B ASIC PL AN
IN IST AN BU L IN C LU D ING S EISM IC M ICR O ZO N A T IO N
IN TH E RE PUB L IC O F TU R KE Y

1

1
1

28

Ista n b ul M etr op o li tan M u n ic ipa li ty (IM M )Ja p a n In te r n a tio n a l C o op e r atio n A ge n cy ( JIC A )S ou r ce : J ICA S tud y T e am

Figure 11: Length of damaged electricity cable, scenario earthquake
Model C

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

217

December 2003, Bangkok

3.4

Vulnerability analysis

Vulnerabilities of the city and the road and traffic system were
evaluated. Human causalities are heavily depended on the vulnerability of
the city, namely buildings and urban structure. The road and traffic systemof the city is critical during response and relief, and recovery stages of thedisaster management.
3.4.1 Vulnerability of the city
The vulnerability of the city was evaluated by using the following
factors; 1) estimated building damages, 2) history of building and urban
renewal, 3) excessive land use and building concentration, 4) road density,5) ratio of narrow road, 6) availability of parks and open spaces, and 7)
protection of historical areas. Recommendations to reduce the risks were
proposed and strategic improvement areas were selected as presented in
Figure 12.
3.4.2 Vulnerability of road and traffic system
The vulnerability of the road and traffic system was assessed by 1)
connections to the neighbouring area, 2) road direction relative to the traffic
axes, 3) road width, 4) land use, 5) building collapse or road blockage(Figure 13), and 7) bridge collapse. Importance of port and harbour facilities
was stresses as strategic points during response and relief, recovery, andreconstruction stages after the earthquake disaster.
3.5

Assessment of disaster management capacity of Istanbul

3.5.1 Administrative conditions
The current disaster management systems of the national and local
governments were studied and recommendations were prepared for legal
and institutional systems related to disaster management, and disastermanagement plans and activities.
3.5.2 Civil society organizations
Disaster management capacity of civil society, such as voluntary
associations, private companies, families, and professional associations in
Istanbul, were studied. Proposed recommendations included flexible legal
systems for the civil society, allocation of resources to the civil society,appropriate distribution of responsibility among public authorities and civilsociety organizations, and utilization of civil society to motivate people forthe strengthening of building.
3.5.3 Public awareness and education
Public awareness of earthquake disaster and status of education forearthquake disaster were studies and evaluated.
3.5.4 Resources for response and relief
Location and capacities of medical facilities (Figure 14), fire fighting
facilities, security facilities and governmental facilities in Istanbul were
evaluated and mapped.

218

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Silivri

Proposed Measures to Improve Building/Urban Structure
Bina/Kentsel Yapýnýn Ýyileþtirilmesi için Önerilen Tedbirler

904

26
23

Çatalca

6

16
13

902

19
20

8

2

26

903

10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

29

12

32

LegendDist rict B oundary
Mahalle Boundary
Hig hway

Marm ara Sea

4

Con servation Are a
Archeology, U rban an dHist orica l
Prop osed Measure s to
Improve B uilding/Urba n Struct ure
Bu ilding/Urba n S tructure
Improvem ent
Redevelopmen t for Building/U rb an S tructure
Urban Structu re I mpro vem ent
with Building Reinforcement
Redevelopmen t for U rb an
Structu re Im pro vem ent
Bu ilding Structure Improve ment
Ot hers

17

21

1
18

0

2

4

6

8

10 Kilometers

N

22

W

1

E

1

S

1

THE STUDY ON A D ISASTER PREV EN TION / MITIGATION B ASIC PLAN
IN ISTAN BUL INC LU DING S EISMIC MICR OZONA TION
IN TH E RE PUBLIC OF TU RKE Y

28

Istanbul Metropolitan Munic ipality (IMM)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Source : J ICA Study T eam

Figure 12: Proposed measures to improve buildings and urban structures

Silivri

Isolation Risk Caused by Road Blockage
Yollarýn Kapanmasý Sonucu Ulaþýlamayacak Alanlar

904

26
23

Çatalca

6

16
13

902

19
20

8

2

26

903

10

5

7

9
15

30
14

3

2

32

29

12

Marm ara Sea

4

17

Legend21

District Boundary
Mahalle Boundary
Highway

Isolation Risk
Very High
High
Little High
Low

0

2

4

6

8

10 Kilometers

1

N

18
W

E

22
S

THE STUDY ON A DISASTER PREVENTION / MITIGATION BASIC PLAN
IN ISTANBUL INCLUDING SEISMIC MICROZONATION
IN THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

1

1

1

28

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Source : JICA Study Team

Figure 13: Isolation risk caused by road blockage

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

219

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 14: Number of beds per 100,000 people by district
4.

RISK REDUCTION MEASURES

Based on the risk assessment recommendations were proposed to
improve capacities of preparedness and to advance measures for risk
reduction. The recommendations, which were structural and non-structural,or had short-, medium-, or long-term approaches, included:- Improvement of evacuation system,- Improvement of response, relief and recovery plans,- Improvement of laws, organizations and disaster management plans,- Involvement of civil society for risk reduction,- Promotion of public awareness of earthquake hazards and education forunderstanding of risk reduction,- Improvement of buildings and urban structure,- Strengthening of public facilities and infrastructures, and- Improvement of road, and port and harbour network for response, relief
and recovery.

5.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

An example of JICA’s projects for earthquake disaster risk reduction
was described. Processes of risk assessment of Istanbul, which included 1)
data collection and preparation of database and maps, 2) hazard assessment,3) risk analysis, 4) vulnerability analysis, and 5) assessment of disastermanagement capacity of Istanbul, were demonstrated by using the GIS maps.
The results of the risk assessment were used to lead recommendations toimprove capacities of preparedness and to advance measures for risk

220

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

reduction for Istanbul.
A systematic and a holistic approach, namely multi-sectoral, multidisciplinal and inter-agency approach was found effective to carry out the
project. Local participation was crucial to introduce local scientificknowledge and technology, as well as various political, economical, cultural,and social distinctions, into the risk assessment and the identification ofdisaster risk reduction measures.
Turkish experts, especially earthquake researchers, have predicted thatthe danger of another earthquake striking the Istanbul area is likely to occur
15 years after the Izmit Earthquake in 1999. The risk assessment in the
study predicted that large-scale building damages and resulting high humancasualties would occur once the earthquake strike Istanbul. The study also
demonstrated the damages to infrastructures and the vulnerability of the city
itself. Implementation of the risk reduction measures is urgently required.

6.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The paper is based on the results of the Study on a Disaster Prevention/
Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul including Seismic Microzonation in the
Republic of Turkey under the funding of Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA). The author gratefully acknowledge the works of the JICA
study team and the Turkish counterpart team, and the supervisions of theadministrative consulting committee, the scientific consulting committee,
the JICA advisory committee and the administrative body of JICA during
the course of the Study.

REFERENCES
1.

2.

3.
4.

5.

Japan International Cooperation Agency, and Centre for Earthquake
and Environmental Studies of Tehran, Tehran Municipality, Final
Report : The Study on Seismic Microzoning of the Greater Tehran
Area in the Islamic Republic of Iran, November 2000.
Japan International Cooperation Agency and Ministry of Home
Affairs, His Majesty’s Government of Nepal, Final Report : The
Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley,
Kingdom of Nepal, March 2002.
Japan International Cooperation Agency and The City of Bogota,
Final Report : The Study on Disaster Prevention in the Bogota
Metropolitan Area in the Republic of Colombia, March 2002.
Japan International Cooperation Agency and Directorate of Soil andEarthquake Research, The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Final
Report : The Study on a Disaster Prevention / Mitigation Basic Plan
in Istanbul including Seismic Microzonation in the Republic of
Turkey, December 2002.
Kubo, K. and Katayama, T., Study Report of Earthquake Disaster
Prevention of Kawasaki City : Earthquake Resistance of Civil

Seismic Risk Assessment of Istanbul in the Republic of Turkey

221December 2003, Bangkok

Structures, Disaster Management Council, Kawasaki City, Japan,
1974 (in Japanese).
Ministry of Construction, Japan, Report on the Development of Fire
Prevention Measures in the City, 1982 (in Japanese).

Mr. T. Tanaka from Japan

222

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

“MULTI-SECTORAL APPROACH”
ON THE STUDY OF SEISMICDISASTER MANAGEMENT IN THE
KATHMANDU VALLEY
Y. EGAWA
Nippon Koei Co., LtdJapan

ABSTRACTThe Study has been carried out aiming at establishing a milestone tothe following three goals of the Earthquake Disaster Mitigation.
• Protecting the life and property of the people• Strengthening socio-economic systems• Securing the stability of governance
Earthquake disaster management should be conducted under an
integrating concept and set of principles that provide unity and continuity
among the plans of governmental and societal entities. These principles
include recognition of the need for leadership, risk reduction, disseminationof public information, and rapid response and recovery actions by all levelsof government and society. In order to establish the principles and plans at
each level, the study team has shown a grand vision and a master plan,emphasizing the following points.
• Multi-sectoral approach to holistic earthquake disaster management• Elaboration of disaster management policy/plans in the new national
five-year plan
• Development of social and economical fundamentals as apresupposition of earthquake disaster mitigation

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

Background

The Great Gujarat Earthquake in India in January 2001 revealed thevulnerability of “non-earthquake-proof” cities and villages. In 1934, anearthquake of magnitude 8.4 caused serious damages to 60% of thebuildings in the Kathmandu Valley.
It is a cause for great concern that the next great earthquake may strike
Nepal at any time, after almost 70 years of silence.
The Kathmandu Valley is the exclusive centre of Nepal for politics,
the economy, and society, with a large population of more or less 1.5

231December 2003, Bangkok

million. Once a great earthquake occurs, Kathmandu will suffer immense
losses of life and property and will be unlikely to be able to function as thecapital of Nepal.

Figure 1: Damage by 1934 Earthquake (provided by Ministry ofHome Affairs)
His Majesty’s Government of Nepal (HMG) has been concerned
about earthquake disaster management and requested the Government ofJapan to implement a study on earthquake disaster mitigation in the
Kathmandu Valley. The Government of Japan, through the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the official implementing agency
for Official Technical Cooperation, dispatched a preliminary survey team to
Kathmandu in August 2000 and exchanged a Scope of Work and Minutes of
Meeting with HMG. Nippon koei Co.Ltd. and OYO Corporation were
contracted by JICA to conduct this study from January 2001 to March 2002.
1.2

Seismicity

Nepal lies on an earthquake zone formed with the subduction ofIndian plate under the Himalayas, and the area has suffered with large-scale
earthquakes. In 1934, an earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 caused serious
damage to 60% of the buildings in Kathmandu valley. According toearthquake records and recent study, it is foreseeable that the next largescale earthquake might occur shortly.
1.3

Goals, Concept and Objectives

The goals set in this study are focused on;
1. Protecting life and property in the Kathmandu Valley,
2. Strengthening socio-economic systems, and
3. Protecting the stability of governance even in the event of major
earthquakes.
Approaching the goals as closely as possible, this study forms one
milestone in a long process.
The objectives of the Study set by the Team, following the goals, are;232

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

1)
2)
3)

to formulate a plan for earthquake disaster mitigation in the Kathmandu
Valley,to carry out technology transfer to Nepalese counterpart personnel,
to create a database on earthquakes and for earthquake disasterestimation.

Figure 2: Epicentral Distribution in Nepal from 1255 to 2001
(Source: Department of Mines and Geology)

2.

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER ASSESSMENT

2.1

Scenario Earthquakes

In this study, three new fault models were selected, and the destructive
force of each was calculated as follows, based on the natural and social
conditions:1) Mid Nepal Earthquake (Richter magnitude = 8.0); MMI VIII
(Modified Mercalli Intensity)
2) North Bagamati Earthquake (Magnitude = 6.0); MMI VI or VII
3) KV Local Earthquake (Magnitude=5.7); Most parts MMI VII or
VIII, as high as IX along the fault line.
In addition, a fourth model, the reoccurrence of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal
Earthquake (Magnitude = 8.4) was modeled for comparison. For the mostpart in had an MMI of VIII, in the eastern part, MMI IX.

“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management233

December 2003, Bangkok

Table 1: Three fault models and the fault model of Bihal-Nepal Earthquake

Item
Fault
plane

Length (km)Width (km)Dip angle (degree)Surface Wave MagnitudeLocation of N (degree)
epicentre E (degree)

Mid Nepal North Bagmati KV Local
Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake
135
10
8
95
9
(4)
5
37
90
8.0
6.0
5.7
27.25
27.65
27.65
84.62
85.27
85.27

1934
Earthquake
222
150
5
8.4
26.42
87.80

North Bagmati Earthquake

M
M
N
NeeepppaaalllEEEaaarrrttthhhqqquuuaaakkkeee
MiiidddN
1934 Earthquake

KV Local Earthquake

Figure 3: Scenario Earthquake Fault Model

Kathmandu Valley
Seismic Motion at Surface
Bedrock

Soft sediments (Amplification)
Acceleration at Bedrock(Attenuation)

Epicenter

Figure 4: The image section of the earthquake in Kathmandu Valley

234

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Seismological
Information

Geological
Information

Scenario
Earthquake
Acceleration
at Bedrock

GroundModel
Fault and Lineament

Subsurface
Amplification
Seismic Motion
at Surface

Ground Model

Seismic Intensity

Peak Ground Acceleration

Figure 5: Calculation of Seismic Motion at Surface“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management

235

December 2003, Bangkok

2.2

Earthquakes Disaster Scenario

The liquefaction potential for all models was evaluated as relatively
low compared with previous estimate.
The anticipated disaster, in the Kathmandu Valley that would becaused by the “Mid Nepal Earthquake” is as follows:
1) The number of heavily damaged buildings, 53,000, i.e., 21% of
all buildings.
2) The death toll, 18,000, i.e., 1.3% of the total population in theValley.
3) The seriously injured people: 53,000, i.e., 3.8% of the total
population in the Valley.
Table 2: Estimated Damage of Building and casualty
Item
Magnitude
Location of Epicentre
Population
Seismic Intensity
Building Damage
Casualty (Death)1934 Earthquake(Actual)
8.4
100 km East
300,000 (1920)
VIII – XI
38,055 (60 %)
4,296 (1.4 %)Mid Nepal Earthquake(Estimated)
8.0
150 km West1,500,000 (2001)
VIII
128,952 (50 %)17,695 (1.3 %)Figure 6: Estimated Damage of Road

236

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 7: Estimated Damage of Power Line

Figure 8: Estimated Damage of Water Supply Pipes“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management237

December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 9: Estimated Damage of Building

Figure10: A Typical Building in Nepal under Construction

238

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 11: Estimated Damage of Casualty

3.

MECHANISMS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Currently Nepal lacks the necessary mechanisms for sustainabledisaster management. It is clear that the following steps must be taken to
improve the capacity for disaster management in Nepal:
1) Establish a strong legal base for a comprehensive risk
management system.
2) Create sustainable mechanisms for inter-governmental and interinstitutional coordination.
3) Ensure that the Tenth Five-Year Plan, currently in preparation,
includes plans and funding for firm disaster mitigation measures.

“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management239

December 2003, Bangkok

4) Promote and strengthen self-governance of local bodies for risk
management.
5) Promote public awareness on self-protection against earthquake
disasters and outreach to targeted groups.
.
Earthquake Disaster Management (EDM) Plans in Proper Sense
National Plan
National Government
Plans
Minister's Plans &National Companies'
Plans

5 Municipality Plans

3 District Plans

Private Plans

E xclu ding Mu nicipa lit y

Com m un it y, E nt er pr ise

Ar ea set cPlans to be refereed
National 5 year Plan

Metropolitan
Region Plan

Infrastructure
Development
Plans

Urban
Development
Plans

Housing
Development Plan
and Regulation

Other Plans

Donor Agencies'
Emergency
Plans

Figure 12: Structure of Disaster Management Plans and Other
National Plans to be Referred
4.

NEED TO MAINTAIN GOVERNANCE

The government, at all levels, is responsible for providing continuityof effective leadership, direction of emergency operations, and managementof recovery operations. For this reason, it is essential that governmental
entities continue to function during and following a disaster. This requiresthat they take actions on preparedness such as: preparing plans/manuals to
guide initial response; establishing systems for communications/coordination, including an Emergency Operations Center; and advising
employees of their responsibilities in case of disaster.
Key elements of emergency plans and manuals include the assignmentof responsibilities/ authority, the establishment of systems for command/
control/ communications/ coordination, and the collection/dissemination of
information. Emergency response/recovery planning should be preparedfor prompt/proper decision-making and smooth execution of the decided
measures before, during, and after disaster.
The importance of communication for the initial response should berecognized, as well as the importance of the role of the media incommunication .

240

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Chairman: Prime Minister
National
DisasterManagement
Council

Kathmandu
ValleyDisasterManagement
Council

Municipality
and Ward
DisasterManagement
Committees

Secretary:
To be Determined

Chairman:Home Minister

Members:
Ministers etc.

Members:
Several Ministers etc.

Chairman:
To be determined
Chief of Regional
Administration Office
All Mayors, CDOs
Chiefs of Relevant
Organisations

Chairman:
Chief of Regional
Administration OfficeBagmati Regional
Disaster Relief
Committee

CDO
Chiefs of Relevant
Organisations

District Disaster
Relief Committee(3 Districts)

Chair and Membershipas appropriate

Chair and Membershipas appropriate

Local Disaster
ReliefCommittees

Organisations to be establishedCentralDisaster Relief
Committee

Existing Organisations

Figure 13: Disaster Management Organizations in the Kathmandu Valley

5.

PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY

Many difficulties are anticipated in the initial stages of the disaster,
including search and rescue operations, medical services, cremation,
drinking water and food, public health care, security, fire-fighting,management of volunteers, safety inspections of structures andinfrastructure, debris removal and disposal, shelter and temporary housing,
etc. Due to inadequate response planning and systems for inter-institutional
coordination, public onsite services in an emergency are likely to be
deficient for the time being. Community involvement and the sense of selfprotection by the people are accordingly indispensable.
The logistics to support on-site activities after the occurrence of adisaster is a critical issue. The transportation system must continue tofunction during and after the occurrence of the earthquake disaster so thatthe on-site activities of search and rescue and other socio-economic
activities can continue to function. Similarly, prompt restoration of electricalservice and water supplies to affected areas would play an important role
during the initial stage of the disaster. The existing conditions of these andother critical elements of the infrastructure are discussed, identifying theunderlying problems. Priority projects to improve the current situation are
also presented.

“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management241

December 2003, Bangkok

6.

THE REINFORCEMANTSYSTEM

6.1

GeneralOF

THE

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

Working towards sustainable development is a natural and necessary
companion to working towards effective earthquake disaster management
itself, because the ability to deal with earthquake disasters is highly
dependent upon the fundamentals of society, economic growth and social
stability, all of which are the fruits of sustainable development. Urban
society is highly dependent on the socio-economic infrastructure, and any
weakness makes it vulnerable to disasters can be reduced by reinforcing theinfrastructure through sustainable development practices. The fundamental
elements of the infrastructure are discussed.
6.2

Transportation Facilities

The existing master plan studies were reviewed. Proposals for roads,
bridges and the airport to improve the access to and mobility inside theValley are presented.
6.3

Building Structures

Most of the existing buildings have severe deficiencies regarding
earthquake resistance. The report presents, discusses and makes
recommendations on the current building construction system, the Draft
National Building Code of Nepal, and the defects of individual types ofbuildings: hospitals, schools and public buildings, and historical buildings.
6.4

Electric Power Supply Facilities

An evaluation of the master plan studies on the transmission anddistribution network in the Valley was performed. Provision of a stabletransmission system is proposed in the city core areas of Kathmandu
Metropolis. Other recommendations, including preparation andimplementation of design manuals for earthquake resistance and training of
personnel for an effective technical support system, are presented.
6.5

Water Supply and Sewerage Facilities

The ongoing water supply project is expected to significantly improvethe extremely poor water supply and sewerage conditions. Urgent tasks
include preparing design manuals for earthquake resistance ( including forthe ongoing water supply project), securing a water supply distribution
system by water tankers, and preservation of existing wells and spouts at
the local level.

242

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

6.6

Telecommunications Facilities

The current vulnerability of telecommunications facilities is carefully
examined. To create a reliable network against disaster, it is recommended
to complete the multiple diversity routing composition as well as toestablish emergency communication and broadcasting systems.
6.7

Urban Structure

Several separate areas within the city center of Kathmandu should bedesignated as intensive development areas for disaster prevention by
maximizing the disaster mitigation characteristics of the urban structure.
Securing emergency evacuation routes and preserving evacuation areas insome areas of the city are effective measures that can be applied toKathmandu. Each of these measures should be implemented to reinforce thecity against disasters. Disaster mitigation measures in central city areas into
eight strategic zones based on the characteristics of the urban structure.

7.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROPOSALSAs a result of the study, about one hundred potential programmes infive categories were identified for the improvement of earthquake disastermanagement in Kathmandu Valley (Table3-Table7). The study teamevaluated the programmes form the viewpoints of term, priority and reality.
Fulfillment of all the programmes would require a tremendous amountof time and money. The team consequently selected four projects, which
each include several programmers, for urgent implementation. The
implementation of the projects will hopefully bring visible results and thus
further promote endeavors to achieve the three goals for earthquake disaster
reduction.
The four projects are:
1) Establishment of an Early Earthquake Information System,
2) Establishment of a Municipality Disaster Management Institution
and Exercise,3) Building Improvement, and4) Establishment of a Comprehensive Database for Earthquake
Disaster Mitigation.
When selecting four projects, as the approach to the three goals,
ninety one (91) proposals were listed in five categories, and reviewed thepriority. The list shows below the next page.
Besides the selected projects, it should be noted that there areimportant and long-term projects with high priority/reality. i.e., the Sinduri
road project aiming at improving access to the Valley, road widening“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management243

December 2003, Bangkok

projects for smoother mobility in the Valley, and the Melamchi watersupply projects.
Table 3: Proposals for Sustainable Mechanism for Development ofDisaster Management
Implemetation Plan (Year)

Rating
Item

No.

Term
A/B/C

Sustainable Mechanism forDevelopmentofDisasterManagementSM-1 EstablishmentofLegalFoundation
SM-2 EstablishmentofDisasterManagementCouncil
SM-2.1
NationalDisasterManagementCouncil
SM-2.2Kathmandu ValleylDisasterManagementCouncil
SM-2.3
Municipality/Ward DisasterManagementCouncil
SM-3 Cooperation between Governmentand Private Sector
SM-4 Preparation ofDisasterManagementPlan
SM-4.1
NationalPlan
SM-4.2CentralGovernmentPlans
SM-4.3Kathmandu ValleylPlan
SM-4.4
Municipality Plans
SM-4.5DistrictPlans
SM-4.6
Private Plans
SM-5 Emphasis ofEarthquake Managemenmtin National5 YearPlan
SM-6 Community Resilience and Self-RelianceSM-6.1
Citizens
SM-6.2
SchoolChildren
SM-6.3CivilServantsSM-6.4MasonsPriority Reality
A/B/C A/B/C

B

A

C

B
B
A
B

A
A
A
B

C
B
A
B

A
B
B
A
B
B
A

A
A
A
A
B
B
A

B
B
B
B
C
B
A

A
A
A
A

A
A
A
A

A
A
A
A

5

10

30

50

100

50

100

Table 4: Proposals for Maintain Governance
Items

No.

Term
A/B/C

Maintain GovernanceMG-1 EstablishmentofRealTime Earthquake Information System
MG-1.1
Earthquake Information System
MG-1.2
Seismic Intensity Information System
Earthquake Information Reporting System
MG-1.3
MG-2 AssesmentofDamage Information System
MG-2.1
EstablishmentofLines ofCommunications
MG-2.2
ImprovementofDaily Business Style
Preparation ofTaking AerialPhotos
MG-2.3MG-3 EmpowermentofMedia
MG-3.1
Seminars and Trainning
MG-3.2
AmendmentofNationalBroadcasting Act
Publicising
MG-3.3
MG-4 EstablishmentofEmergency Communications
MG-4.1
Identifying the Defects ofRadio Wave Propagation
Digital @M obilMulch ChannelAccess System
MG-4.2MG-4.3
Simultaineous Reporting System
MG-4.4
Portable Handset
Initiatiate AmateurRadio Network
MG-4.5MG-5 Preparation forEmergency Response
MG-5.1
ControlSystem
MG-5.2CentralGovernment @EOC
MG-5.3
Municipality/Ward @EOC
MG-5.4Emergency Plans/Manuals
Facility forEOC
MG-5.5
MG-6 Discipline Public Sector
MG-6.1
Discipline Public Sector
MG-6.2
Line ofSuccession
MG-6.3Preservation ofVitalRecord
MG-7 Preparation forRecovery
MG-7.1
Capacity Building
MG-7.2
Review/Evaluation ofExisting Priorities and Projects
MG-7.3
Preparedness

Criteria for rating

Term
Priority

Reality

OthersRating

Implemetation Plan (Year)

Priority Reality
A/B/C A/B/C

5

A
A
A

A
A
A

A
A
A

A
C
A

A
A
B

B
C
A

A
B
A

A
B
A

A
C
A

A
A
A
A
A

B
B
B
B
B

A
B
B
C
A

A
A
A
A
A

A
A
A
A
A

B
B
A
A
B

B
A
B

A
A
B

C
B
C

C
C
C

B
B
B

C
B
C

10

30

(Required duration to complete the programme)
A: less than 5 years, B: 5 to 10 years, C: more than 10 years(Contribution to accomplishment of the goals, Significance of the
problem and effectiveness of the solution, Value/impact for dollar/yen
spent, Sustainability/ability to attract or generate further investments)
A: high, B: moderate, C: Low
Feasibility (technical, financial, political, etc.;)
Acceptability (likelihood of receiving the support of the responsible
institutions and other stakeholders)
A: high, B: moderate, C: Low
Cost, Role, and Responsibility

The proposal with the rating of the criteria which is high about any evaluation item

244

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Table 5: Proposals for Strengthen Socio-Economic System
No.

Items

ProtectLife and Property ofthe People
PL-1 Search and Rescue
PL-1.1
Plan forImprovementofResearch and Rescue
PL-1.2
Acceptance ofInternationalSupport
PL-1.3
ImprovementofDisasterMedicine
PL-1.4
Food and WaterSupply
PL-2 Shelterand Evacuation
PL-2.1
Plan forShelter,Evacuation and Removal
PL-3 MedicalProblem
PL-3.1
Public Health Care
PL-3.2
Remains
PL-4 OtherFunctions
PL-4.1
Security
PL-4.2Firefighting
PL-4.3
ManagementofVolunteers
PL-4.4
Safety Inspections
PL-4.5
Debris Removal
PL-5 Transportation System (Roads and Bridges)
PL-5.1
Database
PL-5.2
Temporary Bridges
PL-6 Electricity Supply
PL-6.1
Database
PL-6.2
SolarPower
PL-6.3
Wind Power
PL-6.4
DieselGenerators
PL-7 Staging Area

Term
A/B/C

Rating

Implemetation Plan (Year)

Priority Reality
A/B/C A/B/C

5

B
B
C
B

A
A
B
A

C

B

B

A
C

A
B

A
C

B
B
B
B
B

B
B
B
B
B

A
B
C
B
C

A
B

A
B

A
C

A
B
C
B
A

A
C
C
B
B

A
C
C
C
B

10

30

50

100

50

100

B
C
C
C

Table 6: Proposals for Protect Life and Property of the People
No.

Items

Strengthen Socio-Economic System
SE-1 Urban Planning
SE-1.1
Urban Space Allocation DetailPlanning
SE-1.2
AssignmentPlanning ofIntensive DevelopmentAreas
SE-1.3
AssignmentPlanning ofMitigation Bypass Routes
SE-1.4
Urban Zoning forDisasterMitigation measures
SE-2 Transportation Facilities
SE-2.1
Roads to Improve Access to the Valley
SE-2.2
Roads to Improve Mobility Inside the Valley
SE-2.3
ImprovementofBridges
SE-3 Building
SE-3.1
Improving Building construction
SE-3.2NationalBuilding CodeSE-3.2Training
SE-3.4Inspection ofKey Buildings
SE-4 Electricity
SE-4.1
NetworkImprovementSE-5 WaterSupply & Sewerage Facilities
SE-5.1
Database System
SE-5.2Distribution System by WaterTankers
SE-5.3Preservation ofExisting Wells and Spouts
SE-5.4
Preparation ofEarthquake ResistantDesign ManualSE-6 Telecommunication Facilities
SE-7 Socio-Economic Influence

Term
A/B/C

Rating

Implemetation Plan (Year)

Priority Reality
A/B/C A/B/C

5

A
C
C
C

A
A
B
A

A
B
C
B

C
C
C

A
A
A

A
B
B

A
A
A
A

A
A
A
A

A
A
A
A

B

A

B

A
B
A
B
A
B

A
B
A
A
B
A

A
C
B
B
B
B

10

30

Table 7: Proposals for Earthquake Disaster Assessment
No.

Items

Earthqauke DisasterAssessment
ED-1 SeismologicalMeasurements
ED-1.1
SeismologicalObservation
ED-1.2GPS Observation
ED-2 Basic Data
ED-2.1
Regulation ofMap Data
ED-3 GeologicalData
ED-3.1
BasementStructure MeasurementofKathmandu Valley
ED-3.2GeologicalDatabaseED-4 Infrastructure Database
ED-4.1
Building Inventory/Census
ED-4.2
Lifeline GIS Database
ED-4.3
Bridge Ledger
ED-5 Data ClearingHouse
ED-6 ImprovementofDamage Estimation
ED-6.1
HistoricalData Gathering and Analysis
ED-6.2Strong Motion Oobservation Network
ED-7 Education and Research
ED-7.1
Earthqake Engineering Laboratory
ED-7.2Training Earthquake Engineers

Term
A/B/C
B
C

Rating

Implemetation Plan (Year)

Priority Reality
A/B/C A/B/C

5

B
B

30

50

100

B
C

A

A

A

B
B

B
A

C
B

A
A
A
B

A
A
A
A

A
A
A
C

A
B

A
A

A
B

B
A

B
B

B
B

“Multi-Sectoral Approach” on the study of Seismic Disaster Management

10

245

December 2003, Bangkok

REFERENCES
1.

2.

3.

4.

5.
6.

7.

8.
9.

National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal(NSET-Nepal)
and GeoHazards International (GHI), 1999. Earthquake Scenario.
Product of the Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management
Project.
UNDP, UN Disaster Management Secretariat, 1997. Comprehensive
Database (Basic Information) on Natural Disaster Management
Capabilities in Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal, Geological Society.
Task Force for Revision of the Preliminary Draft of National Action
Plan on Disaster Management,1995. Draft of National Action Planon Disaster Management.
HMG,1994. National Action Plan on Disaster Management andpresenting the Plan, IDNDR World Conference in Yokohama,
Chhetri, M B. Poudyal, 2000. Disaster Management policies,
Operational aspects, Problems and measures.
Nicholas Russell, Madhu Rarman Acharya, and Shree Ram Pant:
Nepal Country Study.
Nepal’s National Committee for the International Decade of Natural
Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 1996. National Action Plan on Disaster
Management in Nepal.
Pandey, M. R. and P. Molnar 1988. The distribution of intensity of
the Bihar-Nepal earthquake 15 January 1934 and bounds on theextent of the rupture zone, J. Nepal Geol. Soc., 5.
UNDP/UNCHS, 1994. Seismic Hazard Mapping and Risk
Assessment.
Arya, A, 2000, Non-Engineerd Construction in Developing countries- An Approach toward earthquake Risk Prediction, Proceedings ofthe 12WCEE2000, No. 2824,pp.1-22, 2000.

Mr. Y. Egawa from Japan
246

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

URBAN DISASTER PREVENTION AND
MANAGEMENT FOR THE TEHRAN AREA
I. KOBAYASHI
Pacific Consultants International
Japan

ABSTRACTThis paper intends to introduce the master plan study on Urban
Seismic Disaster Prevention and Management for the Greater Tehran Area
(hereinafter called “the Study”). This Study is carried out under technicalcooperation scheme in Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
After completion of the microzoning study in November 2000, this Study was
initiated on August 2002 and it will continue until September next year.
The objectives of the Study are to formulate a master plan and its
implementation plan for urban seismic disaster prevention and management
for Tehran City and to transfer skills and technical knowledge tocounterpart personnel. The Study will formulate three types of plansaccording to management stages: disaster prevention and mitigation,
emergency response and recovery and rehabilitation plans. Implementation
plan on the master plan is prepared based on these three disastermanagement plans.
The plans cover the following items:
1) Formulation of comprehensive disaster management plan
Earthquake disaster management plan is composed of disasterprevention and mitigation plan, emergency operation plan, andrehabilitation and reconstruction plan.
2) Seismic structure measures for the existing building
The Study Team carried out seismic resistance survey on building
investigation for 350 buildings in Tehran in cooperation with local
consultants. Based on the field survey, the existing buildings were
evaluated against seismic resistance.
3) Preparation of disaster management map and diagnosis sheet for each
district
The comprehensive disaster management map was prepared on thebasis of damage estimation results from previous microzoning study and thecollected data from responsible organization. A diagnosis sheet is also
prepared for each one of 22 districts.
4) Community level activity for the disaster management
Several workshops were held by the Study Team to involve residents in
Tehran to disaster management plan. Those workshops are the disastermanagement map-making at community level and community level223

December 2003, Bangkok

disaster management plan formulation by the residents. The Study
Team will monitor their activity to guide them to the appropriate
direction.

1.

INTRODUCTION

This paper intends to introduce the master plan study on Urban
Seismic Disaster Prevention and Management for the Greater Tehran Area
(hereinafter called “the Study”). This Study is carried out under technicalcooperation scheme in Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
After completion of the microzoning study in November 2000, this Study
was initiated on August 2002 and it will continue until September next year.
According to historical data, Tehran has suffered from several strong
earthquakes with return periods of 150 years. Seismologists believe astrong earthquake will strike Tehran in near future because the city has notexperienced a disastrous earthquake since 1830.
The objectives of the Study are to formulate a master plan and its
implementation plan for urban seismic disaster prevention and management
for Tehran City and to transfer skills and technical knowledge to counterpart
personnel. The Study will formulate three types of plans according tomanagement stages: disaster prevention and mitigation, emergency response
and recovery and rehabilitation plans. Implementation plan on the masterplan is prepared based on these three disaster management plans.

2.

INTRODUCTION OF COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER
MANAGEMENT PLAN

2.1

Formulation of Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan

A Study on Seismic Microzoning of the Greater Tehran Area in theIslamic Republic of Iran was conducted with the cooperation of JICA and
Tehran Municipality between 1999 and 2000. As results of the Study, it ispointed out that a strong earthquake caused by fault activity of the Ray Fault
will largely affect Teheran Municipality. Huge seismic damages to bothbuildings and people were estimated. Teheran Municipality does not have aproper urban seismic disaster management master plan. This Study will
formulate a comprehensive disaster management plan based on the previous
microzoning study.
Earthquake disaster management plan is composed of disasterprevention plan, emergency operation plan and rehabilitation andreconstruction plan.
Moreover, the implementation plan will be formulated on the basis of
the master plan program and project. The Study will review the224

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

implementation capacity and resources and formulate the implementation
plan.
2.2

A Seismic Structure Measures for Building and Infrastructure

In order to reduce the earthquake damage, reinforcement of theexisting buildings should be recommended for immediate action. The Study
Team carried out seismic resistance survey on building investigation for 350
buildings in Tehran.
The framework of the disaster management plan is shown as follows:

Disaster Prevention Plan

Disa st er• Establishment of disastermanagement organization• Implementation of disastertraining• Disaster management facility
and reinforcement• Store food and equipment

Emergency Operation Plan
• Dispatch army, police, fire department• Report on damage• Instruction for evacuation
toconstruction
and• Ordertransportation sector• Traffic regulation

Training

Recovery and Rehabilitation• Implementation
rehabilitation• Disbursement of subsidyofFigure 1: Concept of Disaster Management Plan
The Japanese seismic resistance methods are applied in the analysis on
the seismic resistance capacity of the existing buildings. A concept ofJapanese building diagnosis system “ Specification on Earthquake
Resistance Diagnosis and Strengthening for Governmental Buildings” isadopted and the design earthquake is given based on “Iranian Code ofPractice for Seismic Resistance Design of Buildings Standard #2800”.
Japanese Specification provides the seismic index of structure, GIs, in orderto evaluate the seismic resistant capacity of building structure.
The results of the analysis show that most of the building should be
strengthened or rebuilt because of insufficient earthquake resistant capacity.
In order to reduce the earthquake damage, huge investment on the existingbuildings is required in the next few decades. The government should
provide incentive to the individual building owners to encourage
strengthening of the building. The Study will formulate programs andprojects of not only structural measures but also non-structural measures of
the assistance.

Urban Disaster Prevention and Management for the Tehran Area

225

December 2003, Bangkok

2.3

Vulnerability Analysis in Tehran Municipality

In order to assess the seismic vulnerability of each district, district
diagnosis analysis is carried out. The diagnosis analysis should identify thedisaster resources and hazard. As for earthquake hazard, the results of the
microzoning study were applied and the additional data collection on
disaster management resources was carried out in this Study. The results ofanalysis are compiled in forms of district disaster management map anddistrict diagnosis sheet for each district. Those analysis results will beutilized for each district government to formulate disaster management planat district level. Examples of the map and sheet are shown below:

Figure 2: Example of Disaster Management Map

Figure 3: Example of Disaster Diagnosis Sheet

226

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

In order to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of Tehran Municipality
as a whole, a comprehensive vulnerability analysis on Tehran Municipality
has been prepared. The previous study quantified the damage caused by theearthquake in terms of building, human casualty, bridge and lifeline bymicrozone. In this Study, the area’s vulnerability to the earthquake should
be clarified to understand the vulnerability level within Tehran Municipality.
The analysis takes the following steps:

Determination ofEarthquake

Earthquake Ground
MotionBuilding Damage
Caused by Ground
MotionBulding Damage
Structure
Ground Motion
Soil Condition

Secondary Damage

Evacuation

Hazardous Facility
Gas pipeline Damage
Electric Power Cable
DamageOpen space area
Narrow road ratio
Number of evacuee
Number of disaster weak

Figure 4: Procedure of Vulnerability Analysis
Each variable is independent of each other and is analyzed separately.
After ranking each variable, all the ranks are integrated to identify thevulnerability of Tehran.
To analyze an area’s vulnerability, three variables, building damage,secondary damage and evacuation and index, are used to represent eachvariable. The variables and indexes are summarized as shown below:
Table 1: Variables used for Vulnerability Analysis
Items
Building

Index
Building damage ratio

Secondary Damage

Hazardous Facility
Gas Pipeline damage
Electric power damage

Evacuation

Availabilityofevacuation area
Area ratio of roadblockage
Evacuee density on
evacuation
Share of disaster weak

Urban Disaster Prevention and Management for the Tehran Area

Items included in the index
Soil condition
Earthquake ground motion
Building structure
Fuel tank, petrol station andchemical facility
Gas Pipeline damage
Network damage
Collapsed building and roadwidth
Victims
Share of disabled persons
Open space
Population

227

December 2003, Bangkok

The integrated vulnerability of Tehran Municipality is shown as follows:

Source: JICA Study Team

Figure 5: Integrated Vulnerability Map
Based on the integrated vulnerability, the vulnerability level andcharacteristics are identified. In order to mitigate the vulnerability ofexisting urban structure in Tehran, the following measures could be applied:
1. Urban redevelopment
2. Road and urban infrastructure improvement
3. Area-based building construction and retrofitting
4. Individual building retrofitting and reconstruction
2.4

Community Level Activities

In order to protect life and property of the local people fromearthquake damages, it is important for all disaster-related organizations–from national to community levels–to take measures in full. At the sametime, individual local resident has to get a concept of self-protection, haveenough knowledge of earthquake, accumulate training, learncountermeasures of disaster by experience and implement these activities athome, in the community and workplaces, etc. Furthermore, these measuresfor disaster preparedness can be effective if the local community cooperate,
collaborate with existing community organizations such as youth
association and women’s groups and establish community-based groups ofdisaster preparedness.
For this purpose, local government will indicate the standard andregulations for appropriate and effective activities for disaster preparedness.
In order to achieve those objectives, the Study Team and counterpart agency
organize several workshops. such as community disaster management map
making, formulation of community level disaster management plan.

228

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

The workshop plan is shown as follows:

Stakeholders

Workshop (1)Workshop (2)Workshop (3)Workshop (4)Disaster-related
Organizations

Awareness

Raise/Discuss Issues

Plan

Implementation

Support & Cooperate

Community-Local People-NGO/CBO-Educational
Organization-MediaGovernment

Follow-up

Awareness

Raise/Discuss Issues

Plan

Implementation
Exchange ofInformation

Support & Cooperate
Awareness

Raise/Discuss Issues

Plan

Implementation

Figure 6: Workshop Schedule
2.5

Emergency Response Plan

The emergency response plan for Tehran Municipality should be established
to cope with the after event. Within this Study, the following steps havebeen taken to formulate the plan:•••

Review of existing laws and regulations;
Identification of disaster management organization;
Identification of responsibility for each disaster management
organization;• Review of emergency management plan for each organization; and• Recommendation on the emergency response organization.
2.6

Formulation of Implementation Plan

Based on the master plan on seismic disaster management, a long listof project is recommended. The implementation plan is formulated.
Implementation plan would include the governmental capacity for humanresource and investment resources.

3.

PROJECT SCHEDULE

The Study was divided into three phases: basic study and analysis,
formulation of master plan on disaster prevention and management andformulation of action plan. The draft master plan will be presented in
December this year and Phase 3, formulation of action plan, will be started
in January 2004 and it will continue until September 2004.

Urban Disaster Prevention and Management for the Tehran Area

229

December 2003, Bangkok

4.

IMPLEMENTATION ORGANIZATIONThe Study has been carried out by the joint efforts of the JICA Study
Team and Iranian counterpart personnel, which together form a study
implementation body. The Study Team is composed of the members from
Pacific Consultants International (PCI) and OYO International. The Iraniancounterparts were delegated from the Tehran Disaster Prevention and
Mitigation Center (TDPMC) and relevant organization from Tehran
Municipality. To implement this Study, Iranian side established threecommittees: steering committee, technical committee and implementationcommittee. The figure below shows the study organization.
Gover n m en t of Isla m ic
Repu blic of Ir a n

Gover n m en t of J a pa n

St eer in g Com m it t ee
Tech n ica l Com m it t ee
Im plem en t a t ion Com m it t ee

J ICAAdvisor y Com m it t ee

St u dy Im plem en t a t ion
TDP MCJ ICA St u dy Tea m

Figure 7: Study Organization

REFERENCES
1.

2.

3.

230

Pacific Consultants International and OYO Corporation, 2000. The
Study on Seismic Microzoning of the Greater Tehran Area in theIslamic Republic of Iran, Unpublished Report, Japan International
Cooperation Agency, Japan.
Pacific Consultants International and OYO Corporation, 2002. The
Comprehensive Master Plan Study on Urban Seismic Disaster
Prevention and Management for the Greater Tehran Area Inception
Report. Unpublished Report, Japan International Cooperation
Agency, Japan.
Building Maintenance and Management Center, ed. 1996.
Specification on Earthquake Resistance Diagnosis andStrengthening for Governmental Buildings. Building Maintenanceand Management Center, Japan.

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

PARTNERSHIPS TOWARDS
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION:AN OVERVIEW OF ADPC ENDEAVORS
N.M.S.I. ARAMBEPOLA
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
Thailand“Show me the person you honor, for I know better by that the kind of person
you are. For you show me what your idea of humanity is." Thomas Carlyle

1.

PREAMBLE

Partnerships and collaborations are shaped in mutual trust, respect andhonor to embark on a journey of achievement. Partners must agree on thepath to take and where it would lead them, especially when the journey itself
is arduous. The quotation from Thomas Carlyle above, appears apt todescribe the growing collaboration between the Asian Disaster Preparedness
Center (ADPC), Bangkok www.adpc.net, the World Seismic Safety
Initiative (WSSI) www.wssi.org, Earthquake Megacities Initiative (EMI)
http://www-megacities.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/, Risk Assessment Tools for
Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS), andNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET-Nepal)
www.nset.org.np towards earthquake risk reduction in the Asia-Pacific.
These collaborations are amongst a series of several bi-lateral and multilateral partnerships that ADPC has strived to enrich towards making
communities safer from natural disasters. All such collaborations have been
forged with the assistance of international donor agencies (visit
www.adpc.net)
All these organizations have empathy in “reducing risk”; “Safer
cities”, “Education and Training”, “Exchanging information” “IDNDR”,
and “ISDR” among many other actions and strategies that lead to the
reduction of the impact of earthquake (and other disasters on the part ofADPC) on communities and countries in Asia and the Pacific. A
humanitarian quest of mammoth proportions to say the least!
This paper attempts to give an overview of the liaison between these
institutions.

2.

THE FIRST CONTACT WITH WSSI

The first contact between the two organizations ADPC and WSSI
occurred at a workshop held by WSSI entitled, "Seismic Risk Management
for Countries of the Asia-Pacific Region'' in early February 1993 in

247

December 2003, Bangkok

Bangkok. The very first initiative of the WSSI as a newly born institution. It
was a beginning.
“There were participants from such nations as Bangladesh, Brunei,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and Viet Nam, whosenames had rarely been heard in, the international earthquake engineeringcommunity. They were waiting to be addressed to do something, although
they had not participated in any international meetings of earthquake
disaster mitigation before…… The greatest gain from the Bangkok
Workshop was the feeling of partnership cultivated among all theparticipants from developed and developing countries in the field ofearthquake disaster science.”1
3.

ADPC INITIATIVES IN EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTIONADPC has established a Regional Consultative Committee (RCC),
which brings together all national focal points for disaster management in
the region. This is an appropriate forum to foster new partnerships andnourish existing ones.
Initiatives described below have come into being from partnerships
established since the WSSI workshop in Bangkok referred to earlier.
The Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Program (AUDMP) under
ADPC is an eight-year program designed to respond to the need for safer
cities. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce the natural disaster
vulnerability of urban populations, infrastructure, critical facilities andshelter in targeted cities throughout Asia. The purpose of the program is to:•

Establish sustainable public and private sector mechanisms for disastermitigation that will measurably lessen loss of life, reduce the amount ofphysical and economic damage, and shorten the post-disaster recovery
time; and•

Promote replication and adaptation of successful mitigation measures
within target countries and throughout the region.

Working in conjunction with collaborating institutions in each target
country, the program strategy takes a three-tiered approach viz:
National Demonstration Projects
The Information and Networking
Training, Resource Materials, and Continuing
Education

248

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

4.

AUDMP NATIONAL DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS FOR
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

Two projects were initiated in 1977 in Bandung, Indonesia andKathmandu, Nepal. During the project implementation there were many
indirect inputs from organizations all over the world including WSSI and
EMI.
Bandung initiative (1997-2002)2
The implementing university, Institute of Technology, Bandung, (ITB)
iudmpitb@melsa..net.id worked with the city of Bandung to prepare
earthquake hazard maps and undertook a series of training and awarenessraising events in the city. The project was called Indonesian Urban Disaster
Mitigation Project (IUDMP). Four replication cities were chosen and rapid
risk assessments (a new tool), were carried out by the ITB with city
officials. ITB also developed an excellent training package forschoolteachers, which has been adopted by the ministry of education.
Because of generally unsettled conditions in Indonesia, it has been difficult
to carry through with many of the components of the project.
Kathmandu initiative (1997-2003)2
The implementing NGO, NSET-Nepal is a dedicated professionalorganization whose sole objective is to study and work with earthquakes.
Hazard mapping was carried out with an American partner organization,
Geo Hazards International (GHI) www.geohaz.org, Earthquake scenariosand hazard maps were produced that demonstrated what would happen in
Kathmandu if an earthquake of the magnitude of the devastating 1934
earthquake were to hit Kathmandu today. The study called the Kathmandu
Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP) used RADIUS
and has become an excellent case study for its use.
A public awareness campaign targeted on the schools and the government
and local governments was carried out reaping substantial benefits.
4.1

AUDMP - The Information and Networking component

This component helped build public and private networks as a forum
for exchanging information and experience on urban disaster mitigation,with the goal of replicating successful hazard mitigation practices from thedemonstration projects throughout the region.
4.2

AUDMP - The Training, Resource Materials, and Continuing
Education (TRMCE) component

This component provided an opportunity to further institutionalize
hazard mitigation practices through seminars for national level decision
makers, as well as by using an in-country and regional “train the trainers”
approach for passing on technical skills via a core curriculum in hazard
assessment and mitigation. The component supported the development offive new disaster mitigation courses.

Partnerships Towards Earthquake Risk Reduction: An overview of ADPC Endeavors249

December 2003, Bangkok

The five courses are as follows:
1. Urban Disaster Mitigation Course (UDM)
2. Technological Risk Mitigation for Cities (TRMC)
3. Flood Risk Management (FRM)
4. Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction for Cities (EVRC)
5. Disaster Risk Communication (DRC)
4.3

ADPC-NSET-WSSI-EMI Collaboration for EVRC

The course development for the Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction
for Cities (EVRC) saw ADPC reaching out for partnerships across theregion and beyond. It was a regional course for earthquake vulnerability
reduction – a first of its kind! The course builds on past and enduring
endeavors such as EMI, UN, IDNDR, ISDR initiatives for RADIUS and
Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) launched by UNCRD and
GeoHazard International. It aspires to provide:• Training on earthquake vulnerability reduction (EVR) strategies• Know-how for the development of organized approaches for EVR• Knowledge and skills for implementation of mitigation strategies• Analysis of the need for multi-sectoral partnerships for successful
implementation of EVR• Field exposure to ongoing activities
Pak Teddy Boen of Indonesia and Prof Anand .Arya of India were thefirst architects of the course. At the beginning, the course name was"Seismic Vulnerability Mitigation”. Pak Teddy suggested the change to
EVRC.
Focus was to draw experience from AUDMP projects in the region
and hence the responsibility of content development was given to Amod
Dixit of NSET-Nepal and Dr. Krishna Pribadi of IUDMP. A panel ofexperts (which included Dr. Fouad Bendimerad, Professor Jaminul
Choudhury, Professor. Mustapha Erdik, Ms. Shirley Mattingly, Dr. P.K.
Paul and other partners) were involved in the course content moderation.
The first run of the course was in Kathmandu in May 2002. It wascollaboration between ADPC, NSET-Nepal, WSSI and EMI. Professor
Haresh Shah of WSSI and Dr. Fouad Bedimerad of EMI, Amod Dixit of
NSET-Nepal, Dr. Krishna Pribadi of IUDMP, participated as resource
people with several other eminent experts and ADPC colleagues.
EVRC was conducted for the second time in November 2002 as acollaboration of ADPC, NSET-Nepal, WSSI, EMI and ITC, Netherlands
www.itc.nl in Kathmandu. The third course was conducted in June 2003 in
Dhaka, Bangladesh with BRAC University www.bracuniversity.net joining
in the collaboration. ADPC, NSET, WSSI EMI, BRAC University and
Bangladesh University of Technology, were represented in the resource
panel.

250

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

The experiences and knowledge of the partners has lifted the course
into recognition, winning the rapport of participants and peers.
4.4 ADB - TA
Uttaranchal initiative (November 2000 – October 2002)
This was ADPC collaboration with ADB for Technical Assistance forstrengthening disaster mitigation and management in Uttar Pradesh andUttaranchal, India
Program Components in Uttaranchal were
1: Institutional arrangements, Planning and Policy Aspects
2: Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Uttaranchal
Component on institutional arrangements focused on the following.
νSupport for Establishment of Disaster Mitigation and Management
Centerν
Support for 6 publications (guidelines for Disaster Management Plans,
Manuals for Emergencies, Warning and Evacuation, etc) by DMMCν
Study tour to Nepal, Thailand, New Zealand and Australia for 5 seniorbureaucratsν
2 District level workshops for drafting Disaster Management Plansν
13 workshops (one per district) for public awareness anddemonstration on seismic retrofitting of traditional structuresνSupport for preparation of 80 Village disaster Management Action
Plans and workshop for 10 village level Disaster Intervention Teamsν
Production of 2 Videos (one on retrofitting for safer living and anotheron ‘shake table’ tests) producedν
Public Awareness materials and Calendars in the earthquake context
producedν
Review of Building Systems in Uttaranchal, generation of Earthquake
Scenario
Regional Workshop on Best Practices in Disaster Mitigation3
This workshop held from 24-26 September 2002 in Bali, Indonesia
was collaboration between ADPC, CITYNET, UNDP, ITB, BAKORNASPBP, ISDR and USAID. The workshop aimed to share knowledge,
experiences and lessons learned on the AUDMP and showcase other disastermitigation initiatives of city governments, non-governmental organizations
and United Nation Agencies. Set in the context of Total Disaster Risk
Management, the workshop focused on eight themes fundamental to urban
disaster mitigation. They were
• Policy, Legal and Institutional Arrangements• Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment• Capacity Building• Mitigation Planning and Implementation• Promoting Safer Building Construction• Community Based Approaches• Climate Applications and Preparedness• Public Awareness and Social Marketing
The global community of disaster management represented the event.

Partnerships Towards Earthquake Risk Reduction: An overview of ADPC Endeavors251December 2003, Bangkok

4.5

Primer on Natural Disaster Risk Management for Asia

Two decades of ADPC experience has shown that a comprehensive
guide on disaster management targeted for stakeholders in Asia is a crying
need. AUDMP has recently embarked on the challenging task of compilingsuch a guide called “the Primer on Natural Disaster Risk reduction forAsia”.
The Primer would serve as a comprehensive, practical and updated
resource on disaster risk management. The overall goal is to assure anappreciation for and common understanding of disaster risk management
applied across all sectors and among all levels of current and potential
participants in the disaster risk reduction process. The objectives of thePrimer are to:
•
•
•

•

Provide policy- and decision-makers with convincing arguments on
the importance of total disaster risk management and the steps to be
taken
Serve practitioners and development workers as a state-of-the-art“how-to” guide and reference on good practices in disaster risk
management in Asia
Present professionals in related subject areas such as development
planning, environmental management, integrated water resourcesmanagement, geology and earthquake engineering with tested andsustainable approaches and methodologies for incorporating disasterrisk management in their work.
Contribute to the mainstreaming of a holistic approach to disasterrisk management in overall development planning

Following extensive consultation with stakeholders of disastermanagement in a range of forums, it was agreed that the Primer would
comprise of different volumes. There was consensus to start with thedevelopment of three volumes.
Volume I provide the rationale and theoretical context of a holistic approachto disaster risk management. Development is funded by USAID/OFDA.
The other volumes are hazard-specific and include “how to” guides,
effective strategies, policy options, proven tools, good practices and lessons
learned.
Volume II focuses on the management of slow onset flood funded by
UNDP.
Volume III focuses on seismic hazards. Funding is yet uncertain.
Volumes on other hazards have been conceived but their development isdependent on funding availability.
Each volume has a consultative Advisory Group composed of regionaland global experts on the specific subject area who have volunteered toserve. Hence the task has become an excellent showcase of partnershiptowards disaster reduction.

252

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

5.

INTEGRATING DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN
ACADEMIC CURRICULA OF ASIAN UNIVERSITIESADPC is working with ITC-Netherlands and Institut Gegraphique
National (IGN)-France in developing teaching material and case studies forthe benefit of universities in the region. There are fourteen (14) universities
involved in the network as at present .In this activity ADPC, ITC and IGN
are in partnership with Urban planning schools to integrate risk based,
mitigation planning concepts in existing teaching modules. The project iscalled “Capacity Building for Asia Using Information Technology
Applications” (CASITA).
Hopefully further endeavors may forge a similar network for civilengineering schools to integrate safer construction in disaster prone areas.

6.

A FUTURE PERSPECTIVE ON PARTNERSHIPS FORSEISMIC RISK REDUCTION

It is the view of ADPC that partnerships between organizations
Involved in seismic risk reduction should be consolidated andnurtured. Much can happen through renewed synergism. A first step
could be the participation and collaboration of all concerned inregional and global high-level meetings (HLMs).



Such partnerships should look towards encouraging the applicationof risk transfer instruments in Asia such as insurance, which could
bring in spillover promotion of safer construction.



Bear influence of all organizations with a renewed focus to increase
capacity building of Asian cities for earthquake response throughtraining programs on public health emergencies, search and rescue
and other relevant skills.

Bear partnership influence to materialize an "Asia-Pacific
Earthquake Safety Month Campaign" to create awareness andmotivation in governments to implement earthquake risk reduction
measures in their cities.

REFERENCES
1.

2.

1

1.Katayama, T. (2003) Ten Years with the World Seismic Safety
Initiative, Regional Development Dialogue, Vol. 24, No. 1, Spring,pp. 107-114
Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Project Final Monitoring Report
Submitted to USAID/OFDA, RUDO/South Asia and the Asian
Disaster Preparedness Center by: Rebecca Scheurer, USAID/OFDA,
Michael Lippe, Consultant, Jeanne Moulton, Consultant, December
2002

Partnerships Towards Earthquake Risk Reduction: An overview of ADPC Endeavors

253

December 2003, Bangkok

3.

Proceedings – Regional Workshop on Best Practices in Disaster
Mitigation, 24-26 September, Bali, Indonesia, ADPC 2002.

Mr. N. M. S. I Arambepola, and
Mr. A. J. Rego from ADPC, Thailand

254

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ADRC’S ROLE IN NATURAL DISASTERREDUCTION IN ASIA
E. TSUNOZAKI and T. ISHII
Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)Japan

ABSTRACTThe Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), established in 1998 inKobe, is a regional center striving to a) facilitate the exchange of disaster
reduction experts in Asia, b) accumulate and provide disaster reduction
information, and c) carry out research into multinational disaster reduction
cooperation. At the time of establishment, ADRC comprised 22 countries
from Asia as member countries, 4 countries outside of Asia as advisory
countries, and ADPC as an observer. In August 2000 Armenia joined as amember country, and Kyrgyz in July 2002. ADRC currently consists of 24
member countries.
ADRC’s priority is to establish cooperative relationships withconcerned nations and organizations in order to gather extensive andaccurate information on disaster reduction, especially in the Asian region.
The database on disaster reduction and other relevant information on
disasters provided by member countries are available on the ADRC website(http://www.adrc.or.jp).
Capacity building of member countries as well as promotion ofcooperation in disaster reduction is also a major role of the organization.
ADRC hosts in its premises UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) Asian Disaster Response Unit and OCHA/ReliefWeb Kobe
Offices. ADRC is a member of the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster
Reduction of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)and promotes the implementation of ISDR in Asia.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Asia is a region highly prone to natural disasters. Floods, droughts,
cyclones, storm surges, earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions
periodically affect a large number of countries in Asia. Natural disasters inAsia take away not only thousands of human lives and immeasurable
properties each year but they also are the causes of hindering sustainable
development of the region. Between 1975 and 2002, 2,676 disasters occurred(38.1% of the world), killing 2,063,633 people (57.2%), affecting more than
4.2 billion people (89.2%), and causing more than 480 billion US$ economic
losses (50.0%). (Source: ADRC based on CRED-EM-DAT, 2001) In many
countries in Asia, a single disaster could cause damage of more than theannual GDP of the country, as the case of the earthquake in Armenia in 1988

255

December 2003, Bangkok

shows. The damage caused by the earthquake was 20.5 billion US$ and theGDP of the country of the same year was 11.65 billion US$. (Source: ADRC
based on CRED-EM-DAT data base, 2002, HDI of UNDP, and World Bank,
2002)
The necessity of regional organizations for disaster reduction was
stressed in the "Yokohama Strategy" adopted at the 1994 World Conference
on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama, Japan. In 1995, after theGreat Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, a ministerial-level "Asian Natural Disaster
Reduction Conference" was held in Kobe for Asian countries, at which the"Kobe Declaration" was adopted. The "Kobe Declaration on Natural Disaster
Reduction" includes an agreement to consider a creation of a "system which
has the functions of a disaster-reduction center for the Asian region". A seriesof meetings followed and in the "Chairperson's Summary" of the Asian
Disaster-reduction Cooperation Promotion Meeting held on 16-17 June 1997
where 20 Asian countries participated, the establishment of a center to serve
as a secretariat of a "system which has the functions of a disaster-reduction
center for the Asian region" was agreed.

2.

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ASIAN DISASTER REDUCTIONCENTER (ADRC)ADRC was then established on 30 July 1998 in Kobe, Japan to facilitate
exchange of disaster reduction experts from each country and concernedbodies, to accumulate and provide disaster reduction information, and tocarry out research into multinational disaster reduction cooperation as thefocus of this initiative. At the time of establishment, ADRC comprised 22
Asian countries as member countries, 4 countries outside of Asia as advisory
countries, and ADPC as an observer organization. In August 2000, Armenia
joined as a member country and Kyrgyz joined, also as a member country, in
July 2002. ADRC currently consists of 24 member countries.
24 member countries: Armenia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India,
Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea,
Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and VietNam
4 advisory countries: Australia, France, New Zealand and Switzerland
1 observer: Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok,
Thailand

3.

POLICY OF ADRCADRC operates as a center for sharing disaster reduction information in
Asian region. ADRC has pursued the following basic goals since its
inception.

256

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.1

Information Sharing

ADRC provides information related to disasters, disaster reduction
initiatives, training and education in disaster reduction and emergency drills,
disaster reduction technology, and human resources for disaster reduction.
ADRC holds regular meetings for government officers in charge of disaster
reduction and for experts involved in disaster reduction in member countries
and promotes international cooperation in disaster reduction efforts. ADRC
receives a limited number of visiting researchers from member countries.
3.2 Capacity Building in Member Countries
In order for member countries to build their disaster reduction capacity,
ADRC imparts awareness, education and training programs with them, incooperation with regional and international organizations, and disseminates
results and outcomes to other member countries. ADRC also promotes publicawareness programs to raise capacity of communities in member countries
through active community participation.
3.3 Cooperation
ADRC promotes cooperation in disaster reduction activities withmember countries as well as with national, regional and internationalorganizations, networks and programs. ADRC is a member of theInter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction of the UN International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and promotes the implementation of
ISDR in Asia. ADRC hosts in its premises the OCHA Asian Disaster
Response Unit (ADRU) and OCHA-ReliefWeb and conducts joint activities.

4.

ROLE AND ACTIVITIES OF ADRC

4.1

Information Sharing

It is of utmost importance for ADRC to establish cooperative
relationships with concerned nations and organizations in order to gather
extensive and accurate data on disaster reduction for use and dissemination in
the Asian region. This being the priority of the organization, ADRC strives tobuild networks of information and human resources related to disaster
reduction by participating in international meetings, visiting various
countries to conduct surveys, welcoming researchers for study programs, andholding an ADRC meeting every year for member countries, advisor
countries, and regional and international organizations.
ADRC develops a database of disaster reduction systems and otherrelevant information provided by member countries, which are available on
the ADRC website (http://www.adrc.or.jp). ADRC has created ageographical information system for disaster management called VENTEN(http://venten.adrc.or.jp) in order to provide accurate data of disasters with

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction257

December 2003, Bangkok

disaster management information including basic geographical map
information of Asian region.
ADRC has also developed, in collaboration with the Centre for
Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster, Louvain Catholic University(CRED) and OCHA-ReliefWeb, a globally common unique identification
code for disasters called GLIDE (Global IDEntifier Number) in order toeasily identify and access disaster information. FAO, OFDA/USAID, the
NOAA Office of Global Programs (OGP) and the World Bank also joined in
the initiative. A GLIDE number is issued every week by EM-DAT at CRED
for all new disaster events that meet the EM-DAT criteria (seehttp://www.cred.be). Ways to cover disasters that fall out of EM-DAT criteria
are being sought and will be provided in due course. The GLIDE numbers are
now used by ReliefWeb, ADRC and CRED in all documents. As more
information suppliers join in this initiative, documents and data pertaining to
specific events would be more easily retrieved from various sources, or
linked together using the unique GLIDE numbers. ADRC has prepared a
specific website for GLIDE (http://glidenumber.net/). Currently, ReliefWeb,
ADRC and La Red are developing an automatic GLIDE generator, which will
start its function early 2004 to respond to the growing demand for the
real-time issuance of GLIDE number for prompt and wider information
sharing.
Furthermore, ADRC launched a joint international project incooperation with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA), aiming at reinforcing disaster management in Asian region bybuilding a cooperative framework for disaster reduction and response. As apart of this initiative, ADRC hosts the OCHA Asian Disaster Response Unit
(ADRU) within the premises of ADRC since February 1999. In August 2001,
the OCHA-ReliefWeb Kobe Office started their operations for better
provision and sharing of humanitarian and disaster relief information over theInternet.
In cooperation with OCHA-ADRU, ADRC developed and advocates
for the “Total Disaster Risk Management” approach and organized meetings
with the support from the ASEAN Foundation, Government of Japan,
UNESCO, UNU, USAID and other partner organizations to strengthen
capacity in disaster risk management among member countries. The TDRM
approach looks at the entire cycle of disasters, involves all sectors anddisciplines of societies and communities in disaster management andencourages partnership to reduce risk and vulnerability to natural hazards.
ADRC and OCHA-ADRU also conducted jointly a workshop in
February 2002 in Kobe to establish a network and cooperative relationshipamong NGOs of Asian countries in disaster reduction and response. Based on
the decision taken at the workshop, ADRC and OCHA-ADRU are serving as
the host for the network called Asian Disaster Reduction and Response
Network (ADRRN). The ADRRN is to be reviewed at the International
Conference on Total Disaster Risk Management (TDRM) held in Kobe on 1
December 2003 to develop the network to be further proactive.

258

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

4.2 Capacity Building
ADRC has launched and supported financially and technicallycooperative projects with member countries to build capacity in disaster
reduction, based on the needs of each country. These projects include
awareness raising programs, development of educational programs,
community-based flood disaster mitigation project, and activities to increaseskills for emergency search and rescue training program.
One of the successful cooperative projects was carried out in Papua New
Guinea where it is highly susceptible to tsunamis. The tsunami, which struck
the Aitape region immediately after the earthquake of seven on the Richterscale and with the epicenter only 30 kilometers from the coast in 1998,
claimed more than 2,200 lives. While the country had experienced manytsunamis, previous experience was not passed on to new generations. ADRC,
with the knowledge acquired from the Japanese experiences, produced
posters and pamphlets (Figure 1) in both English and local languages andwith pictures and illustrations, and distributed them widely to the inhabitantsof PNG. The dissemination was further supported by the PNG National Red
Cross Society. The lesson to beware of tsunamis when an earthquake occurs
and to seek refuge on higher ground spread to the country. An earthquake ofeight on the Richter scale affected a wide area of north-east PNG in
November 2000. However, while it created a tsunami that destroyed
thousands of houses, there were no deaths thanks to the timely evacuation.

Figure 1: Tsunami awareness poster developed for PNG
After the devastating earthquake that hit the state of Gujarat, India on
26 January 2001, ADRC conducted a multinational investigation mission in
Gujarat in June 2001. The investigation group was composed of disaster
reduction specialists from several member countries and one advisory
country, and was supported by the Indian Government. The main purposes
were to inspect the affected areas and to learn lessons from the earthquake
disaster to utilize and reflect in the future to plan disaster reduction measuresin their own countries. Another purpose of the mission was, in return, for themember countries to propose knowledge and expertise to reconstruct thestricken areas and to reduce future disasters.

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction259

December 2003, Bangkok

A school educational program for disaster reduction was developed incooperation with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS) and Asia/Pacific Cultural Center for UNESCO (ACCU) in
2001 to raise awareness and improve preparedness for disasters, in particulargeological hazards which the Philippines Archipelago frequently faces. A
workshop was held on 1-17 December 2001 in Manila which produced aframework of curriculum for school education on disaster reduction. (Figure2) ADRC emphasized the importance of raising disaster awareness throughschool education and the need to stipulate it in the policy.

Figure 2: Disaster drill at school in the Philippines
The urban search-and-rescue training project, conducted with theSingapore Civil Defense Force in October 2001 and November 2002, aimed
at building Urban Search And Rescue (USAR) capacity, using the resources
owned by a member country to meet the needs of other member countries.
The next USAR training seminar with the Singapore Civil Defense Force will
be held in January 2004.
ADRC supported, in cooperation with OCHA-ADRU, the seminar for
the Improvement of Early Warning System and Response, organized in
Bangladesh on 19-24 December 2002 by the Bangladesh Public
Administration Training Center (BPATC) and Ministry of Disaster
Management and Relief. The seminar was held to enhance the early warning
system and to promote close coordination among all stakeholders of disastermanagement in early warning and response.
The National Disaster Management Office of the Lao People’s
Democratic Republic organized the Disaster Reduction Training for Media
Staff, co-sponsored by ADRC and OCHA-ADRU, on 4-7 February 2003 todevelop collaboration among all stakeholders in disaster management, inparticular, collaboration between the Media and other sectors to enhancedisaster reduction capacity. The importance of the role of the Media indisaster reduction was emphasized at the training.

260

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

In March and May 2003 the Cambodia National Committee forDisaster Management (NCDM) and ADRC co-organized a series ofprovincial disaster management training workshops with the support of the
Cabinet Office of Japan and the ASEAN Foundation. The program aimed toenhance participants' ability to assess disaster damage and needs, and theircapacity to provide information at the local level in the case of floods anddroughts, which have heavily affected Cambodia in recent years.
Since 2000, ADRC has conducted a seminar on disaster management
every year based on a request by the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA) and with its support in order to improve disaster management capacityof participating countries. Participants of the seminar are not only fromADRC member countries and come from all regions of the world. The
program of the seminar builds on the experiences of Japan in disastermanagement and tries to transfer knowledge and expertise to other parts of
the world.
Building on the experience of the JICA training seminars held in thepast, ADRC will carry out a training seminar in Kobe on disastermanagement for Central Asia and Caucasus to be supported by JICA, startingin 2004. The seminar will be conducted in Russian language, which will
facilitate the discussion among government officers responsible for disastermanagement from the regions. ADRC was invited to participate in a survey
mission to Central Asia and Caucasus in September 2003 to identify thestatus and needs in disaster management of the regions. The findings of thesurvey mission will be reflected in the program of the training seminar, whichshould help build capacity of the regions in disaster management.
ADRC has been invited in 2003 by JICA to participate in a series of
missions in Turkey to: a) review roles of government officers responsible fordisaster management, b) identify outstanding challenges in disastermanagement, and c) make recommendations on a training course forgovernors on disaster management. (Figure 3) ADRC stressed the importanceof introducing a holistic approach to disaster management, taking into
consideration all phases of disasters, i.e. prevention/mitigation, preparedness,
response, and recovery/reconstruction. It was recommended to the Turkish
government that the TDRM approach be adapted in Turkey with focus onpromoting the reinforcement of buildings and public awareness programs &disaster education in schools.
4.3

Cooperation

ADRC cooperates with national, regional and internationalorganizations, networks and programs, among others, ADPC, ASEAN
Foundation, CRED, Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI), Global
Disaster Information Network (GDIN), International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), International Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA), Typhoon Committee, UN Centre for Regional Development(UNCRD), UN-ESCAP, UNESCO, UN-HABITAT, UN International

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction261

December 2003, Bangkok

StrategyforDisaster
Reduction(UN-ISDR),
UN-OCHA,
UN-OCHA/ReliefWeb, USAID, UNU, WHO, WMO and World Seismic
Safety Initiative (WSSI).

Figure 3: Visit to the Turkish Red Crescent in Ankara
Since April 2002, ADRC is a member of the Inter-Agency Task Forcefor Disaster Reduction for ISDR. ADRC provided financial and technicalassistance, together with the Japanese Government, to the initiative by the
ISDR Secretariat to develop “Living with Risk – a global review of disaster
reduction initiatives”, which was launched on 9 August 2002 in Tokyo.
ADRC and the ISDR Secretariat co-organized a session entitled“Living with Risk – towards effective disaster reduction“, on the occasion of
the Third World Water Forum (WWF3) held in Kyoto on 19 March 2003 to
explore the linkage between disaster reduction and the water agenda, tofollow up the WSSD, and to integrate risk and vulnerability reduction ofwater-related disasters into water management policies and initiatives.
On 4 October 2003, ADRC co-organized a public forum in Tokyo
entitled “Living with Risk –Are We Prepared for the Next Big One?“ with
UNU, Cabinet Office of Japan, WSSI, and ISDR, in active cooperation withNHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), to discuss the current status ofearthquake disaster preparedness in Japan with a view to raise awareness ofearthquake disasters among the general public. The Forum was held on theoccasion of the 80th anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquake and theInternational Day for Disaster Reduction, inviting four internationallyrenowned experts to address the pressing needs in earthquake disaster
reduction.
Cooperation between ADRC and OCHA is not limited to thedevelopment and implementation of cooperative projects developed by thetwo organizations. ADRC supported the United Nations Disaster Assessment
and Coordination (UNDAC) Asian Induction Course held in March 2003 in
Kobe and the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG)
Asian Meeting held in November 2003 in Kobe to strengthen the capacity in

262

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

disaster responseorganizations.

5.

and

to

enhancecooperation

among

concerned

TOTAL DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (TDRM)

The Total Disaster Risk Management (TDRM), developed by
OCHA-ADRU and ADRC, builds on the gains of the IDNDR and ISDR, andother relevant endeavors, integrating and complementing existing knowledge
and techniques on disaster reduction and risk management.
With the aim to promote TDRM and to build capacity in disaster risk
management in a holistic way, ADRC and OCHA-ADRU co-organized aseries of workshops. The first workshop held in August 2002 in Kobe wasintended to improve the awareness of disaster reduction of national
governments. The second workshop held in June 2003, also in Kobe, wasintended to enhance and institutionalize the capacity in the TDRM approachin Asia, particularly in the critical issues such as hazard mapping,vulnerability and risk assessment, and damage and needs assessment.
ADRC and OCHA-ADRU are co-organizing the Asian International
Conference on Total Disaster Risk Management on 2-4 December 2003 in
Kobe, supported by our major partners. The Conference is the fourth in aseries of multilateral and multi-sectoral forum that promotes the TDRM
Approach. Following the conference-workshops that introduced TDRM
Approach to delegates of NGOs and national focal points for disaster
reduction and response of Asian countries, this Conference intends to further
promote TDRM among non-traditional yet critical stakeholders andexponents of disaster reduction. Essentially, it aims to develop among allconcerned sectors a strategic understanding of how to integrate TDRM into
the national planning process and disaster reduction and response systems of
the participating countries towards sustainable development. The Conferenceis expected not only to advance the promotion of the TDRM approach, but it
is also expected to contribute to achieving sustainable development in Asia
through holistic and effective management of disaster risks.

6.

WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION(January 2005, Kobe)

Owing to the background of its inception, ADRC attaches special
importance to the review of the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action,
which the ISDR Secretariat is carrying out, and is committed to contribute to
the process leading up to the consolidating event, World Conference on
Disaster Reduction, to be held in Kobe, Hyogo in January 2005. (Year 2005
will mark the 10th anniversary of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake.) In
this context, ADRC supported the session “Effective Early Warning - use ofhazard maps as a tool for effective risk communication among policy makers
and communities –“, organized by the Government of Japan on the occasionof the Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWCII) held on

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction263

December 2003, Bangkok

16-18 October 2003 in Bonn, hosted by the Government of Germany.
(Figure 4)

Figure 4: Session on hazard mapping organized by the Government ofJapan at EWCII, Bonn, Germany
ADRC supported the First ISDR Asian Meeting held in January 2002 in
New Delhi, India, convened by the Governments of India and Japan andco-organized by the ISDR Secretariat, to discuss and promote ISDR with an
aim to achieve sustainable development in Asia. ADRC also supported theSecond ISDR Asian Meeting held in the context of the Asian Conference on
Disaster Reduction 2003 held in Kobe to promote further discussions on thesubject. The Third ISDR Asian Meeting is going to be held, co-organized by
the ISDR Secretariat and the Governments of Cambodia and Japan, supported
by ADRC, on 6 February 2004 in Siem Reap, Cambodia, preceded by thesixth ADRC International Meeting (4-5 February).

7.

COMMUNITY BASED HAZARD MAPPING - A SIMPLE AND
EASY-TO-UNDERSTAND TOOL FOR PUBLIC AWARENESS

ADRC, with an aim to contribute to the three main goals of theorganization described above; information sharing, capacity building andcooperation, implements public awareness programs to strengthen capacityof communities in disaster reduction. TDRM workshop held in June 2003 andthe session organized in the context of EWCII in October 2003 on hazard
maps emphasized the importance of hazard maps as a simple tool to improvedisaster preparedness.
Hazard maps have been recognized as an instrument for disastermanagement in many countries in recent years. However, most of them are
literally hazard maps indicating only dangerous spots and not useful fordisaster reduction. It should also be noted that in many countries hazard maps
developed by the national and local governments are not distributed to themembers of the community.

264

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

In March 2003, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japandeveloped a “Flood Hazard Map Manual for technology transfer”. Utilizing
the manual, ADRC developed a tool for “Community Based Flood Hazard
Mapping” in cooperation with Fuji Tokoha University. It is a simple and costeffective tool to develop public awareness involving active participation of
the community. The tool was developed bearing in mind that, in order to raise
public awareness and to ensure smooth evacuation at an imminent flood orother disaster event, maps must be user-friendly and easy-to-understand forthe community.
To ensure smooth evacuation in case of a flood, hazard maps need toinclude not only inundation areas and depth but also information such as:- Evacuation centers & routes,- Disaster management center,- Dangerous spots,- Communication channels and systems,- Evacuation criteria,- Tips for evacuation including emergency kits and other items needed in
evacuation, and- Mechanism and symptoms of hazards.
According to a survey recently conducted in Japan, among the residents
who evacuated, those who had seen such hazard maps were 1.5 times more in
number and they evacuated one hour earlier than those who have not. (Figure5) In case of an acute disaster such as a flash flood, the difference would be a
critical determinant in evacuation.

Figure 5: Results of survey on hazard map
The community must be provided with relevant information regarding
hazard maps and how to utilize them. Most importantly, it depends on thelevel of awareness of the community how effectively hazard maps are used.
The members of the community must be taught how to understand potential
disasters in the community from the map to take appropriate
countermeasures.

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction265December 2003, Bangkok

Figure 6: Walking in the community to understand possible risks
For this purpose, ADRC is advocating an approach whereby thecommunity itself develops a hazard map through the following steps:
1) Members of the community along with experts and local government
officials walk around the town or village to find out about, among
others, “inundation areas”, “evacuation centers & routes”, “expected
problems in disaster management activities”, “disaster related
facilities” and “communication channels”. (Figure 6)
2) Transfer the field observation and information onto a map using
different colors to be visually understandable. (Figure 7)3) Discuss among the participants about the “possible disasters”,“problems to be expected in disasters” and “possible countermeasures”.

Figure 7: Making our own hazard map
It takes only one day and we only need a map, a camera and color pens.
Through lively discussion, members of the community can find out about
their problems with regard to disasters and countermeasures.
The method described above for floods to strengthen disaster
preparedness through risk communication among the members of the266

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

community can be adapted to other types of disasters such as earthquake andtsunami disasters. ADRC has conducted several projects to develop tsunami
evacuation plans with active community involvement in Japan and member
countries.
ADRC intends to further promote this simple tool for effective risk
communication in member countries in Asia by adapting it by disaster types
and to the specific conditions of each country for effective disaster reduction.

Ms. E. Tsunozaki and Mr. T. Ishii from
Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)

ADRC’s Role in Natural Disaster Reduction

267

December 2003, Bangkok

Moments from the Workshop…

Dr. N. H. Phuong
from Vietnam with
Dr. W. Dong, USA

Dr. D. Dutta, Prof. K. Meguro with
Dr. Pennung Warnitchai

Mr. U. T. Myint from Myanmar with
Prof. T. C. Pan from Singapore,Member, WSSI Board of Directors

268

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ATTITUDINAL CHANGE FOR RISKREDUCTION ACTIONS
R. SHAW
United Nations Centre for Regional Development
Japan

ABSTRACTThis paper describes author’s experiences over last several years in
the earthquake risk reduction in both developed and developing countries.
The key question was “how to motivate a person to implement risk
reduction actions?” A questionnaire survey of high school students inJapan revealed that while 60-70% of students had undergone disastereducation in school, only 20-30% of them took risk reduction actions. The
survey also pointed out the importance of the community and family in thedisaster education, especially in implementing risk reduction actions.
Two examples from Kobe and Gujarat suggested that community
played an important role in the reconstruction process after the earthquake.
It was concluded that two levels of actions are needed to make attitudinalchange for risk reduction: one at the international level, linking earthquake
issues with the sustainable development and human security. The otheractions should be at local level, through community and family, promoting aculture of preparedness. The paper also urges the important role WSSI canplay at both level.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Two major issues related to earthquake disaster pose the real
challenge to the earthquake professionals. The first one is the nature of theevent, which, unlike flood or typhoon, cannot be predicted in advance. The
other issue is its occurrence, which, again unlike other events, occurs oncein 10 or 50 or even 100 years. Thus, the priorities of preparing for theearthquake disaster in advance is relatively low in many countries. For thedeveloping countries, while the post-disaster reconstruction exercise
provides an opportunity for development, pre-disaster preparedness andmitigation measures are the only solution for earthquake risk reduction.
However, the painful question is: ‘how to motivate an individual and/or
community to take pre-disaster risk reduction actions’?
This question is not only critical for the developing countries, but also
found to be relevant for the developed country like Japan, which has a highrisk of earthquake, experiences of major earthquake disasters, andsignificant technical expertise and resources. Still the question arises: ‘Is
Japan prepared for the next big one?’ The same question will possibly be

271

December 2003, Bangkok

valid for other developed countries, and obviously for the developing
countries as well.
The author conducted a survey of school children in Japan tounderstand the effect of education and experiences on earthquake risk
perception and the relation of risk perception and risk reduction actions.
The author was also involved in several projects in the developing country
for pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster reconstruction exercises. In
this paper, the outcomes of the survey and the projects are analyzed toaddress the key issue: what makes an individual to take risk reduction action.
In this paper, two post-disaster reconstruction experiences are described,
one from developed country (The Kobe earthquake of Japan), and the otherfrom developing country (the Gujarat Earthquake of India). Beside, theUnited Nations (UN) initiatives on pre-disaster preparedness are analyzed,
and finally, a few words have been stated on the future direction ofearthquake risk reduction initiatives.

2.

THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE AND ITS AFTERMATH

2.1

Background

The Kobe Earthquake (which is also known as ‘The Great HanshinAwaji Earthquake’ or ‘The Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake’) with amagnitude of 7.2 in the Richter scale, and a depth of 16 km hit the city of
Kobe and its surrounding areas in the Hyogo Prefecture on January 17, 1995
at 5:46. Total number of casualty crossed 6,400, with numerous injuries andvictims of other collateral damages. Buildings and infrastructures wereseverely damaged, and more than 200,000 people had to find temporary
shelter in different parts of the city. Only within Kobe city administrative
area, 70,000 buildings were completely collapsed, and 55,000 wereseriously damaged. Public facilities like city offices, schools and hospitals
were also damaged extensively, which made the city services paralyzed forseveral days. Utility services were also interrupted: electricity service wasout of order in the entire metropolitan area, 25% of the telephone services
did not work, water and gas services were disrupted in the entire city. At
several locations, severe fire broke out, and 7,000 buildings werecompletely burnt in fire, resulting more than 800,000 sq m. of burnt areas.
The damage to social and industrial capital stock was estimated at 7 trillion
Japanese Yen within the Kobe city. Secondary and tertiary losses in the cityand other parts of the province were much higher.
Immediately after the earthquake, most of the people were helped andrescued by their friends, families and neighbors. A case study in the Nishi
Suma Area, one of the worst affected areas, pointed out that 60% people
were evacuated by themselves, and approximately 10% was rescued by theneighbors (Tsunehiro et al. 2003). This data indicate the importance of thecommunity and neighbor in immediate rescue operation. The main reasonsof effectiveness of local people in rescue operation, as appeared from the272

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5interview, are: 1) information and knowledge of the community, 2)leadership within the informal and formal community based organizations,and 3) availability of small tools for rescue operation such as saws andcrowbars. The same phenomena were observed after the Marmara
Earthquake of 1999 in Turkey and Gujarat Earthquake of 2001 in India(Jalali 2002, Shaw 2003).
After the rescue, came the relief and rehabilitation phase, where
hundreds of volunteers gathered from different parts of Japan. Different
organizations/ voluntary groups had their coordination centers focusing on
different parts of the affected areas. Needless to say, the prefecture, city andlocal governments had their coordination centers as well. In some places,
they had cooperation with the NGO networks, in some places they acted
independently. The effectiveness of the coordinated NGO network has been
observed in other countries like Turkey, where a rescue NGO called AKUT
was turned into the coordination center for relief distribution of thegovernment. The same pattern was observed after the Gujarat earthquake of2001 in India, where the NGO network called Abhiyan played a significant
role in information dissemination among the government, non-government
and international organizations (Shaw 2003).
The relief phase was followed by the reconstruction phase, where thegovernment took the leadership. Out of the different activities, the creationof the temporary shelters, identifying special zoning areas, restoration of
lifelines and infrastructures were the priority issues. From the government
perspective, the reconstruction phase persisted for three to five years, until
the housing and infrastructures were reconstructed. However, according to
the people’s perspective, this stage is till continuing, even when the city isentering into the 10th year after the earthquake (Shaw and Goda, in press).
2.2

Issues after the Kobe Earthquake

Issues after the Kobe Earthquake can be divided into two major parts:
1) Local issues related to the reconstruction of Kobe and adjoining areas,and 2) National issues related to future earthquake risk reduction strategies.
In the city (Kobe and other affected cities) and prefecture (Hyogo
prefecture), after the earthquake, rehabilitation projects were carried out,
focusing mainly on infrastructure restoration. Victims’ individual requests
were not met because the government took a “no personal compensation”
policy at that time. The restoration of lifelines, railways, roads and harbors
were focused, and were restored to their previous state within three years.
The fact that sufficient assistance was not provided to each victim had
harmful effects. Kobe has been stagnant at “80%” recovery since 3 years
after the earthquake. ”80% rehabilitation” means that urban infrastructure
has been fully recovered, however, victims’ lives and livelihood have not.
This situation was influenced strongly by the fact that the damages wereconcentrated in the weakest groups and that local communities were unable
to become active due to bad socio-economic conditions.

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

273

December 2003, Bangkok

Downtown Kobe had lots of old residence where people used to live
together and had strong community bonds. Shifting this group ofcommunities to temporary shelters posed a threat to the community link.
Consequently, there were problems in adjustment with new clusters ofpeople in the temporary shelters. Thus, interpersonal relationships did not
developed in the temporary shelters. The relatively high percentage of aged
people contributed to this issue.
In many local governments, rehabilitation plans approved by theadministration were different from what people wanted. For example, onlya single-track plan was prepared by the administration for housing: “shelters→ temporary housing → permanent housing”. However, there were manycases, where victims were at the end of their resources due to constraints infunds, systems and rules. Such a gap in understanding between theadministration and the people can be seen in one-sided decisions regarding
urban planning during the chaos after the earthquake, and on the promotionof big projects such as Kobe airport. These decisions have resulted in
distrust by people toward the administration. The reason for such a situationis that there was no partnership between the administration and the people
before the earthquake. In one hand, administration was forceful in decisionmaking, and in the other hand, the people were too dependent on theadministration.
In the national level, issues were more complex, similar to many otherparts of the world. On the engineering perspective, there were significant
focus on the revising the standard and codes for buildings andinfrastructures, incorporating the experiences of damages of the earthquake.
Many studies funded by national and provincial governments were started
focusing on detection of active faults and geological and geophysicalsurveys across the country as well as through deep-sea boring surveys.
Seismic microzonation and establishment of real time data acquisition
system were done in the all the prefectures of Japan within five years after
the earthquake. Seismic data collections networks have been upgradedthroughout the country.
Disaster management control rooms were
established and/or upgraded in many prefectures, and coordination
mechanism with the emergency services and lifeline services were enhanced.
On the social side, three major changes were observed after the Kobe
Earthquake: 1) Increase in the voluntary and non-government activities allover Japan, 2) Increase of community initiatives, and 3) Increase of multidisciplinary cooperation, and increasing stress on the social studies tounderstand the root causes of the earthquake disasters. One year after theearthquake, Hanshin/Awaji Community Fund (HACF) was established in
May 1996. Initial amount of the fund was 800 million yen (approximately 8
million US$), which was supposed to spend in three years through threedifferent types of grants: community redevelopment program, philanthropy
programs, and NPO activities. In the same year (1996), Japan NPO Center
was established to support NPO all over Japan. Nowadays, many similarorganizations have been established to support the activities of smaller NPO.
After the earthquake, a new law was enacted in 1998: ‘Law to Promote

274

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Specified Nonprofit Activities’. While citizens of Kobe and victims of thearea did not have time to join in lobbying this law, they were moreinterested to lobby for the financial assistance, which in turn lead to theenactment of another law: ‘Law to Support Disaster Victims’ in 1998. The
spirit of civil society activities, which gained a high momentum in Kobe
earthquake, continued in the environmental disasters in the following years,
like the Oil Spill in the Sea of Japan and Tokyo Bay in 1997, where
thousands of voluntary groups helped each other to restore theenvironmental degradation of the sea. The consequences of the Kobe
Earthquake made two new realities (Tatsuki and Hayashi 1999): an
emerging sense of self-governance, and stronger sense of community
solidarity.
2.3

Earthquake Risk Perceptions and Risk Reduction Actions

From the experiences of the Kobe Earthquake, it was observed thatmany people were rescued by their friends, families and neighbors,particularly in the places, where the community ties were strong (Shaw andGoda, in press). Also, the neighborhoods, which had higher social capital,
the reconstruction and rehabilitation were smooth and faster, with bettercollective decision making among the communities and better cooperationof the community and local government (Nakagawa, 2003). Thus, thelesson is that community and individual awareness are important, and tosustain the community initiatives is crucial to achieve a safer andsustainable society. Culture of disaster preparedness plays an important rolein this regard. To build this culture, education is one of the key tools, andthus focusing the school children is considered as an essential element tounderstand the development of the culture. To understand the direction of
education for effective earthquake risk reduction actions, a survey was
undertaken with the first grade high school students 15-16 years) in fiveprefectures of Japan: Aichi, Hyogo, Osaka, Shizuoka and Wakayama.
Among these prefectures, Hyogo and Osaka have experienced the damages
due to the Kobe earthquake, while Aichi, Shizuoka and Wakayama are
expecting a big earthquake called Tokai Earthquake. In total, there were 28
classes from 12 schools, and total number of students was 1065.
A set of questionnaires was prepared based on a model as shown in
Figure 1 (Shaw et al., in press). In the model, knowledge, awareness andcode of conduct are perceived in the sequence of: Knowing, Realizing,
Deepening, Decision, and Action, as the gradual change in behavior fromknowing to code of conduct. Knowledge comes from two sources:
experience and education. Experience here denotes not only experiences ofdamaging earthquakes, but also general experience of earthquake.
Education has four parts: school, family, community and self-education.
School education is divided into two parts: education from teachers (S), andpro-active education with participation of teachers and students (ST).
Family education (F) originates from parents, and other family members.
Community education (C) is related to education in the neighborhood,community organizations, NGO activities, research workers, and voluntary
activities etc. Self education (Se) is acquired from books, internet,

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

275

December 2003, Bangkok

newspaper, TV and other sources through student’s own initiative. All theselead to ‘Knowing’ about earthquakes and its impacts.
The next step after ‘Knowing’ is ‘Realizing’, which is denoted as
Perception (Figure 1). After ‘Realizing’, comes ‘Deepening’, which is
divided into two parts: Deepening A (which is considered as wish to deepen
the knowledge), and Deepening B (which is considered as actual deepening).
The next step is ‘Decision’, which is the wish to take action and disseminate
knowledge, denoted as Preparedness A and Dissemination A respectively.
‘Acton’ comes after it, which are Preparedness B and Dissemination B. In
summary, the steps described below has the following meaning:
Knowledge:
Sources of information and knowledge about
earthquake and its Impacts
Perception:
Realizing about the earthquakes and its possible
Counter measures
Deepening A:
Intending to deepening understanding of earthquake
risk
Deepening B:
Deepening understanding of earthquake risk.
Preparedness A:
Intending to take action on preparedness forearthquake
Preparedness B:
Actions to prepare for earthquake/ mitigation
measures
Dissemination A:
Intending to disseminate earthquake information andExperiences
Dissemination B:
Disseminate earthquake information and experiences
Thus, through this model gradual change in student’s behavior is visualized,
from knowing through realizing and deepening and ultimately brining it tocode of conduct (action). The gap between the knowledge and code of
conduct is actual challenge for earthquake disaster, and it is related to therisk perception and other socio-economic-cultural issues, which aredescribed in the earlier section.

Figure 1: Model showing the concept of survey. EE: Earthquake
experience, S/ST: School education/active school education,
C: Community education, F: Family education,

276

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Se: Self-education. Numbers show the numbers of questions for eachcategory. For Deepening, Preparedness and Dissemination, ‘A’ stands for‘wish’, and ‘B’ stands for ‘reality’.
Analysis was done by cross tabulation with earthquake experiencesand education. Details of each analysis are described in Shaw et al. (inpress). The degree of effect of one factor on other is calculated, and theprocess is repeated for each set of questions for experience and education.
Picking up the maximum values from each set of questions (experience, anddifferent sources of education (S, ST, C, F, and Se), a graph is produced
showing the effects of experience and education on perception ofearthquake risk. This shows that school education (S) and self-education(Se) has the most prominent effect on perception, followed by active
education in school (ST) and earthquake experiences (EE). Similar
exercises were conducted for other sets of parameters: Deepening A, B,
Preparedness A, B, and Dissemination A and B. Integrated results areshown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Relative impacts of earthquake experiences (EE), and education(S: school, ST: active school, C: community, F: family and
Se: self) on perception, deepening, preparedness anddissemination.

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

277

December 2003, Bangkok

Some interesting observations can be made from this figure. While,
earthquake experience and school education (S) are important to develop
perception of earthquake risk, active school education (ST) and communityand family education play more crucial role in developing the wish andinterest to deepening knowledge. Self-education is also an equallyimportant factor in this aspect. However, actual deepening of knowledge isobserved through intensive community education. Experience and school
education play relatively smaller role in this regard. This is possibly
attributed to enhancing perception and deepening through active
participation of different types of community activities in the neighborhood.
In contrast, when the wish for preparedness is concerned, family educationis the most influential factor, followed by self-education. For actual
preparedness, it is the community and family education, which are mostimportant. This is attributed to importance of family and neighborhood level
preparedness, which is possibly mainly through family and community
education.Wish to disseminate experience is enhanced by active school
education (ST) and family education, while actual dissemination is
promoted by community and family education. In both cases, school
education’s (S) role is not so prominent.
The survey also pointed out that on an average, 65-70% of thestudents have undergone earthquake education in schools, 70-75% of thestudents have high perception on the earthquake risk, including what to do
as earthquake countermeasures. In contrast, only 25% performs risk
reduction actions, and there lies the actual problem: ‘how do we makeattitudinal change for risk reduction action’? As evident from the survey,
this is a long-term process of development of a ‘culture of preparedness’,
which should originate through interaction in family and community. The
importance of this survey lies in the fact that Japan, even being a highly
developed country in terms of knowledge-base, and technologicaldevelopment, has a long way to go for actual risk reduction initiative at
individual and community level.

3.

EXPERIENCES OF GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

3.1

BackgroundThe earthquake of 26 January 2001 (magnitude 7.7, USGS) devastatedthe Gujarat State in Western India with unprecedented and widespread lossof lives and properties. More than 13,000 people lost their lives, andthousands were injured (GSDMA, 2002). The earthquake affected an area
stretching more than 400 km, including urban, semi-urban and rural areas.
Several villages close to the epicenter were completely destroyed. Over300,000 buildings were collapsed and more than twice the number wereseverely damaged. This was a tragic blow to the region that was sufferingfrom a drought conditions and the aftermath of cyclone in last 3 years. The
devastation affected the area socially, economically and physically (Shaw etal., 2001).

278

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

There was an overwhelming response from all quarters to offer
support for relief and reconstruction of the quake hit areas. Such support
both material and in kind brought together several institutions/organizations
concerned with disaster management to launch a combined effort in the post
earthquake response. One such consortium was formed among government,
non-government, academic and international organizations from India,
Japan and Nepal. United Nations Centre for Regional Development(UNCRD), Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Centre (EDM), andNGOs-Kobe, three organizations from Japan joined hands with Sustainable
Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), National
Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)-Nepal and others in India toimplement a small-scale project in the affected area in Gujarat, India.
The purpose was to put together the group’s strengths and pastexperiences to help the people of Gujarat in the best possible manner. Patan
district, located to the east of Kuchchh district in Gujarat State, and one of
the hardest hit districts was chosen as the area of intervention. The village
name was Patanka, which was located approximately 270 km north west of
Ahmedabad. The area was 70 km west of the epicenter of the earthquake.
An initiative called Patan Navjivan Yojna (PNY) was formulated, which
had two major components: rehabilitation of a model village, and a shake
table demonstration testing for earthquake safer construction.
3.2. Model Rehabilitation
The needs for a model approach in community rehabilitation are felt
more than ever before. The reasons contributing to this need are obvious.
Disasters in recent decades are causing more deaths than it did earlier in the
century. The worse still, same areas get affected by disasters over and over,and yet the relief and rehabilitation carried out following one disaster does
little to protect them against the subsequent ones. In the areas vulnerable torecurrent disasters, the approach of not learning from past experiences, has
led to a miserable disaster-poverty cycle (Bhatt, 1998). Limited education
and awareness among the stakeholders, and lack of confidence in disasterresistant practices such as construction are regarded as two major reasonsfor the repetition of the same mistakes and tragedy.
Over many years, attempts are being made to develop sustainabledisaster management models that can effectively reduce risk. This has beena rather difficult exercise. Experience shows that most ‘models’ exist as
long as there is external support to the local community (Twigg, 2000). The
initiative fails soon after external assistance is withdrawn. Ultimately, thisresults in the vulnerability of the community increasing to it previous levels.
It has also been felt that, increased coordination and capacity building
among aid agencies, long-term planning and a greater understanding of therecovery and rehabilitation issues can potentially improve post disasteractions at the community level. Thus, the urgency and need for developing amodel approach was strongly felt after the earthquake.

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

279

December 2003, Bangkok

PNY was conceived as a model program right from its inception stage.
It sought to empower the affected community to such an extent that they are
sufficiently resilient against any future disasters. It attempted to link
immediate response in form of relief to mainstream development. An
important aspect of the initiative was to establish a framework of mutual
cooperation among different stakeholders in the post-disaster scenario.
Most importantly, it aimed at successively reducing the role of external
agency in local rehabilitation action until a point wherein the local
community completely takes over the functions insofar performed only by
the external agency. The work was done by a Project Team, which
consisted of representatives of different organizations mentioned above.
The Process of Rehabilitation (Shaw et al. 2003a) had three major
stages: I: Principles and Planning, II: Implementation and III: Ensuring
Sustainability (Figure 3). The first thing was setting up the basic principles
for planning the rehabilitation intervention. Rehabilitation was not just a
short term, gap filling exercise. In most cases, the community faced threat ofrecurrent disasters and therefore rehabilitation should be aimed at reducing
their vulnerability. This would imply building communities assets,achieving sustainability of their livelihood, building houses that could
protect them against future earthquakes and an infrastructure that potentially
improved the quality of life of the community to a level better than it was
before the disaster.

Figure 3: Model of Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
Rehabilitation should be empowering. The Project Team would not,and should not, remain with the community forever. In such a case, thecommunity who were the first responders should be sufficiently equipped tocater to their immediate needs. A well-planned rehabilitation exercise could
significantly increase the capacity of the community for a more effective
response. Social, economic and psychological aspects were integral part of
the rehabilitation program. It was to be understood that the proper
rehabilitation was not only to build earthquake resistant houses, but also therestoration of the livelihood, and to restore the normal life with sustainableeconomic activities. “Livelihood” could not be ensured only by safer

280

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

housing and suitable income, but would need to include issues such as
welfare, health care, medical service, educational facilities, labor condition,
disaster prevention and others maintained in good balance.
Rehabilitation should also incorporate the local cultural aspects andshould try to inculcate safer construction culture to the community. The
rehabilitation program should try to establish a strong bond within thecommunity and also within different related stakeholders. The success of
the rehabilitation exercise was judged by the degree to which action werereplicated by the community, without intervention from the aid agency.
Inputs on capacity building were therefore important. Additionally, theProject Team needed to ensure that conditions would continue to exist foreasy replication.
The role of the Project Team was to facilitate the reconstruction
process. The composition of the team was therefore very important. Getting
appropriate staff members with suitable motivation and skills was difficult,however suitable training and encouragement could help. Establishing good
relationship with the community was the foremost responsibility for the
Project Team, skills and knowledge came next. The Project Team had tohave an attitude of helping the community so that they can help themselves.
Maintaining professional and ethical standards while performing amidst thecommunity earns respect and trust of the community. The skills of the
Project Team in being able to translate their own knowledge into
community acceptable practice was the crucial testing point. Besides, theteam would have to ensure transparency in their accounting system andworking methods. This helped in establishing credibility for the team.
The most significant part of the project was involvement of houseowners and communities in the reconstruction and decision making process.
The Project Team provided know-how, training and building materials, andprepared a model house for the most needy person in the village. However,the construction of houses was done by the family members. Thus, theessential seismic features of the houses were deep-rooted in the persons, andthe house-owners were the best quality controller of their own buildings.
Thus, an auto-monitoring system was developed within the village, which
would be sustainable, even after the completion of the project.
3.3. Shake Table Demonstration Testing
In general, there was lack of confidence in traditional construction
methods, lack of available lost cost and affordable technology, and lack oftrained, skilled masons. The important aspects of rural non-engineered
constructions therefore needed to be identified by demonstration andtraining that involved the local community in order to provide them withconfidence in existing building materials. The main message of thisdemonstration and training program was that damage was done to rural
constructions mainly due to the lack of proper use of technology, not to poor
construction materials. The important steps were to build awareness,confidence, and capacity among the people of the local communities,

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

281

December 2003, Bangkok

masons and local engineers. A preliminary training program was conductedin the village so that people would understand the importance of earthquakeresistant construction at little additional cost.
Two identical half-size models of rural houses were constructed on a
locally built shaking table in the field and tested to underscore theimportance of earthquake safety elements. The experiment and training
programs were carried out in the presence of the local masons and people inorder to engender confidence in the earthquake-resistant construction
techniques to be used. Figure 4 shows the first of the test series, in which
two models were constructed from stones and mud mortar, after which one
was retrofitted with locally available materials. At the end of testing, theretrofitted building had minor cracks, whereas the other building hadcollapsed. This visual experiment, with explanations, inspection, andmeasurements gave immense confidence to the community. Four suchtesting was conducted on houses built with different construction materials
and construction techniques (Shaw et al. 2003b).

Figure 4: Shake table testing with rural construction
Another important aspect of the training program was mason training,in which trained masons from Kathmandu, Nepal provided training for local
masons from the affected villages. Through that program, the PNY masons
had the chance to visit Nepal and see the work of the Nepalese masons.
This also gave great confidence and experience to the local masons.
3.4. Issues for Sustainability
Involvement of the community in a participatory way in owning boththe problem and solution was undertaken at the local level, by focusing on
safety and the sustainability of lives and livelihoods. Involvement of thedifferent stakeholders in India and Japan in working together with thecommunities, under a framework based on local needs and priorities wasanother area of emphasis. Sensitization of the international community tothose local needs and priorities was done at the international level.
In summary, the basic elements in this initiative were the community,
its stakeholders, existing knowledge, confidence in technology, and people’sability to turn knowledge into practice. The goals to be achieved were: toensure safer living and sustainable livelihoods, to empower the communities,

282

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

and to motivate people through incentives. The tools used to achieve thesegoals were partnership, cooperation, self-help, and participation. Although
the common practice for cooperation is from the central to the local
government, and only then to the community, the scheme used for thecurrent initiative is indicative of the community-centered interaction ofdifferent stakeholders. For successful rehabilitation, the important factors
are participation and empowerment; flexibility and a time-frame; teamwork;
identity and ownership; trust; and evaluation and transferability.
The effort initiated by the Project Team needed to be sustainable longafter the interventions were over and the Team was withdrawn. In effect,
intervention should be designed from the beginning to ensure that
community was able to take care of its development needs and was resilient
for future disasters. For Intervention to be sustainable, capacity building
and strengthening/building local institutional mechanisms were obvious
need. Additionally, local institutions should have adequate capacity and afixed source of income to be able to exist and carry out its programs.
Rehabilitation actions would be sustainable if the individual in thecommunity was empowered and owned the project. The individual should
be aware of his rights and know the way to take action on them.
Based on this basic philosophy, the Project Team focused on thepeople’s knowledge more than the physical rehabilitation (Shaw et al. 2003).
A pool of trained masons in the community led to the creation of a “mason’s
guild” that would market its own services not just within Patanka but also to
all other neighboring villages. This was regarded as a useful livelihood
opportunity in a region where agricultural products were not enough tosustain households.
To ensure the institutionalization of the efforts in the trained masons,Patanka Reconstruction Private Limited was proposed as a Construction
Company, promoted by SEEDS, the main implementing partner of the PNY
project. The farmers whose livelihood was destabilized due to successive
years of drought were trained as skilled masons, and were capable enoughof taking up construction work as an alternative means of livelihood.
Therefore, to help them get into an organized structure, the idea of initiatinga Construction Company came into existence. Thus, it was felt that the
proposed name of the Company should have the name of the village from
where it had its roots. The company proposed to take up retrofitting,rehabilitation and disaster resistant Construction, which were its uniqueselling point. Therefore, it was appropriately named as a Reconstruction
Company instead of a Construction Company. “Patanka” as a brand namestood for good quality disaster resistant construction using appropriatetechnology and promoting local resources. Also, in order to promote social
development, the company would like to commit 20% of its profits for thiscause: 5% each for Research and Development, development of Patanka andlocal initiatives, capacity building activities, and Community Risk
Reduction Fund (CRRF).

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

283

December 2003, Bangkok

The company would be developed in three phases: inception phase(2002-2004), establishment phase (2004-2007), and expansion phase (2007onward). In the inception phase, SEEDS would act as the sole promoter ofthe company, responsible for the institutionalization and training for thecompany. This phase would be the most crucial, on which the future of thecompany would depend. In this phase, the foundations would be built incore strength areas i.e. construction of disaster resistant buildings andretrofitting activities. In the establishment phase, the company would havebeen in existence for two years, therefore the focus would be on
strengthening its hold in the market. The company would enter into
strategic partnerships, which would determine the work area and type offunding. The expansion phase would include: providing a new direction to
the company by making itself sufficient and self-accountable. There would
be a lot of reorganization in roles and responsibilities. The main aim ofestablishing this company was that the masons could use their construction
skills as the means of their livelihood. So during this stage, the company
would start looking beyond the initial promoter SEEDS.
3.5

Dissemination of Experiences

Dissemination of PNY experiences was one of the important aspectsof the project. The dissemination could be within the state, in the country
and outside the country. To disseminate the experiences within the state ofGujarat, different schemes of cooperation were formulated: cooperation
with NGOs working in the Kachchh area for the mason exchange program,new project with GSDMA for sharing the experiences with other parts of
Kachchh, proposed training programs in the disaster management resource
centers in Gandhidham. All these could be made feasible through constant
lobbying, and networking. The PNY video (shake table testing) was
broadcasted in the state-wise television, and was used as a training kit fordifferent parts of Gujarat.
The most important dissemination of PNY experiences was in thelight of mitigation and preparedness efforts for future earthquakes innorthern parts of India. A comprehensive program was conceptualized andimplemented by SEEDS, in cooperation with national government (NCDM),
NGOs-Kobe and UNCRD. The program was termed as ‘Parvat Yatra’ (Ajourney to the mountain), in response to the International Mountain Year of
2002. It was planned to cover the whole north and northeastern part of thecountry. Figure 5 shows one example of this training program in northernhill town in the Kangra Valley in the Himachal Pradesh. NSET-Nepal has
helped in this program with technical expertise.
The same exercise was conducted by UNCRD in Kabul, Afghanistanwith the technical assistance from NSET-Nepal (Figure 5). This was aimed
to train masons and engineers in the post-conflict reconstruction program in
Afghanistan.

284

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

Figure 5: 1:10 scale shake table testing with rural construction in
Northern India (Left) and Kabul, Afghanistan (Right). The
photo in the right shows Nepalese mason and engineer with
Afghani masons

4.

FUTURE DIRECTION OF RISK REDUCTION INITIATIVESAt the beginning of the last decade, there were two major challenges
in front of us:1) How to encourage countries and international bodies to think and act
on the pre-disaster mitigation activities as a priority of developmentwork?
2) How to motivate local actions at individual and community level?
Following parts will try to address these two issues.
4.1

The Last Decade

From 1990-1999, United Nations, along with member states observed
an International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The
IDNDR Secretariat in Geneva coordinated and undertook several initiatives
with the national governments, international organizations (UN, bilateraland multilateral donors; and organizations like ADPC and ADRC), anddifferent NGOs (international, national and local NGOs). Many of the
projects and initiatives were very successful, and credit goes to all the
stakeholders, including the think-tank like WSSI, which proposed, promoted
and implemented many of them.
It was until Yokohama Conference of 1994, from when the IDNDR
activities took a momentum to accelerate its work in the developing
countries. Much of this depended on the commitments from the donor
agencies, and Japan became one of the largest donors to the IDNDRSecretariat. Other developed countries like UK, Germany and USA also
contributed substantially to the IDNDR activities. Many developing
country national governments like China, India, Mexico took leading roles
for institutionalization of the efforts in the national, provincial and local

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

285

December 2003, Bangkok

government levels. The Kobe earthquake of 1995, at the middle of thedecade has changes the concept of earthquake disaster management, andcompelled us to see the earthquake issue in a holistic perspective oftechnical, social and cultural issue. Two major urban earthquakes in Turkey
and Taiwan at the end of the decade again pointed out the need for themulti-stakeholder cooperation, and gap between knowledge and practice.
In summary, the success of the IDNDR lies in: 1) Promoting predisaster preparedness issues, and urging for a paradigm shift from reactive
to pro-active mitigation, 2) To engage with the national governments todevelop strategies and policies, 3) To motivate several national governments
to establish multi-disciplinary institutions, 4) To enhance regional
cooperation in the field of disaster management, and 5) To enhance theawareness of people and communities through educational campaign etc.
4.2

Beyond IDNDR

After the completion of the Decade, UN, though the resolution of themember countries, established an International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (ISDR) Secretariat, and a risk reduction Task Force. Manyregional organizations, UN agencies and the country representatives are themembers of the Task Force. ISDR Secretariat, under the new dynamic
leadership is currently active with different promotion activities. However,as earlier, funding remains a problem, and it will remain until there is a firm
commitment from the member states.
Although IDNDR seemed to achieve a substantial progress, it was notable to generate a significant enthusiasm in its own UN system, especiallywhen it comes in the integration in the development activities. Many of thecurrent initiatives of the UN system focus on the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs), which was set up by the countries in the UN Millennium
Assembly (MDG 2003). Unfortunately there is limited or almost no
mention about disaster reduction, prevention and preparedness aspects in the
MDGs. Also, the World Summit of Sustainable Development (WSSD)
Declaration of 2002 has limited mention about disaster reduction as one of
the major emphasis area in the next decade. Not only UN, very few
bilateral and international development agencies have clear-cut policy on
disaster related issues. The World Bank was able to establish the Disaster
Management Facility (DMF) and Pro-vention Consortium, and it was very
effective in different post-disaster reconstruction phase. The soft loan after
the Gujarat Earthquake of India from the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
has urged to review the ADB emergency assistance policy, and in the new
proposal, significant focus is being given to the pre-disaster preparedness(Safron 2003). All these are rather recent developments and its impacts are
yet to be proved.
United Nations has established the Human Security Commission(Ogata and Sen 2003) with financial support from the Japanese Government,
as is co-chaired by Sadako Ogata, current President of JICA (and former
UNHCR High Commissioner) and Amartya Sen (Nobel Laureate in the286

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

field of Economy). Human Security has been the most widely discussed
topic in the international meetings and forums. Earthquakes and its impacts
are very much related to this key issue of “Human Security”. This is part ofresponsibilities of the professionals, how to link the disaster related issues(especially earthquakes) with sustainable development and human security.
So long we are not able to do this, it is difficult (not impossible) to prioritize
the earthquake issues in the national policy agenda and to promote the predisaster mitigation as national strategy.
4.3

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

As exemplified form the questionnaire survey of school children in
Japan, it is of utmost important that an attitudinal change is required for therisk reduction actions. The process for this change is different in different
countries, based on the local context, including socio-economic, cultural,religious and political affairs, among many other issues.
After the Kobe Earthquake, university students of Hyogo prepared asmall booklet titled ‘Are you Prepared?’ (Toshiharu, 1998). The students
summarized major lessons learned from the earthquake as: “The Great
Hanshin Awaji Earthquake Disaster teaches us that preparation for disaster
applies not only to hardware aspects, but also to software aspects of humanrelationships and mutual assistance both of which are equally important. A
society that is prepared for disaster is a warm society of people willing toextend a helping hand to other.” As argued earlier, the major challenge forearthquake disaster is to implement pre-disaster mitigation efforts versus
day-to-day priority of other issues. Thus, so long the earthquake issues are
not incorporated in everyday aspects, its sustainability are questionable.
Japan being an earthquake prone country, there is a general level ofknowledge and awareness, which exists among the citizens including theschool students. However, to prepare for an earthquake is different issue,
and it is only possible through active education in family and community.
Human code and conduct during the earthquake is such an issue, which is
not written in the form of textbook. Thus, school education alone cannot
solve this problem, and cannot motivate a person to take action for
mitigation activities. However, school education is useful for the very
important first step, which is providing knowledge and activating student’s
interest.
Fisek et al. (2002), in their studies in Istanbul, Turkey, described thatearthquake mitigation is not only a financial matter, but perception andawareness plays an important role. There are numerous examples of similar
observations made in Japan. Eastern part of Japan is expecting a large
earthquake any time. Shizuoka is one of prefectures in that region, which
took sincere efforts to reduce the damages to the possible future earthquake.
The prefecture government started ‘Tokai Zero’ project, which is to enhance
the safety of private houses. Government initiated a very generous scheme,with free seismic evaluation of house, provision of grants from government
for retrofitting, and provision of soft loan for retrofit. Considering the
economic standard of Japan, it is an affordable package, but the number of

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

287

December 2003, Bangkok

applicants for this program remains restricted. This is attributed to lack ofproper risk perception and awareness and lack of wish to take decision for
mitigation activities.
As evidenced from the two examples of reconstruction experiencesthat involvement of community is one the key issues for the sustainable
recovery. The more the communities become the owner of the process, themore the issues are deep rooted in them. Thus, the reconstruction process is
one of the useful opportunities to indulge individual and communities in risk
reduction actions. This is to be remembered that the reconstruction process
should focus on the livelihood and social recovery, beside the reconstructionof buildings and infrastructures.
“What makes attitudinal change?” Possibly there is no clear-cut
answer for it. It is observed in many countries that, policy, institution, rules,
bye-laws are essential part of the system and creation of the system isimportant.
However, the make the system effective, people andcommunity’s participation is essential. There is a need to develop a“Culture of Preparedness”, and the role of all stakeholders from government,
non-government, academics and international organizations are equallyimportant in this regard.
4.4

Expected Role of WSSI

As evident from Katayama (2003), WSSI has limited financial
resource, and therefore the resource should be focused in the right direction,
at right location to make maximum impact. This is not to be forgotten thatirrespective of financial resource, WSSI has an immense potential of ideas,
knowledge, expertise and voices, and these were combined together in thelast decade to make a change in many countries, where WSSI had conducted
HLM (High Level Meetings). Thus, there are obvious reasons to be
optimistic about the important roles WSSI needs to pay in the current years
and the coming decades.
A few suggestions on the potential roles of WSSI will include thefollowing:
1)
Strategic choice of focus area: Needless to say that earthquake
threatened areas all-over the world need WSSI. However, due
to limited resource, it should focus on one/several key strategic
geographic locations, with visible impacts. One of them might
be the transitional countries like Mongolia, Afghanistan andCentral Asian Republics (Uzbekistan, Kazakstan, Kirghizstan,
Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan). There are several obvious
reasons for it: 1) Countries in transition need intellectual help
from different sources, apart from the financial assistance. 2)
There are very few avenues of information exchange in thesecountries with outside world, and 3) Since most of them are intransitional stage, it is the right time to intervene to incorporate
disaster issues in policy and long-term strategy. Definitely thisis not an easy task, and needs patience and energy.

288

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

2)

3)

4)

5.

Emphasize the Human Security Concept: As mentioned above,the link between the earthquake disaster management andhuman security should be strengthen. Transitional states are oneof the useful avenues for this purpose. The benefit of this link
will be reflected in the national and international policies andstrategies.
Participation in the UN ISDR Task Force: WSSI should be amember of the UN ISDR Task Force. Since there are many
important decisions made by this Task Force related toworldwide disaster reduction initiatives, it is important to play a
crucial role in this Task Force.
Second World Conference on Disaster Reduction: ISDR, alongwith Government of Japan will organize the Second World
Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe in Japan on 18-22
January 2005. The purpose of this conference is to review the
progress of the Yokohama Strategy in last ten years. WSSI
should be actively involved in this event as an organization, as
well as collaborative partners with other regional andinternational agencies.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The observations presented in the paper were derived from different projectsof UNCRD and EDM, where the author was involved. Supports from these
institutions are highly acknowledged. The author has been benefited fromdiscussions with several experts in many countries. The names of all ofthem are difficult to mention, but special thanks are due to S. Suwa, M.
Murai, K. Shiwaku of Japan, M. Gupta, A. Sharma and S. Iyenger of India,
A. Dixit of Nepal, H. Rahayu of Indonesia and so on. Interaction with thestudents of Maiko High School is highly acknowledged.

REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Bhatt M. R., 1998. Can Vulnerability be Understood? In Twigg
J.,Bhatt M.R. (eds.), Understanding Vulnerability: South Asian
Perspectives, London, IT Publications.
Fisek, G., Yeniceri, N., Muderrisoglu, S., and Ozkarar, G., 2002. Risk
perception and attitudes towards mitigation, IIASA-DPRI meeting on
Integrated Risk Management, Luxemburg.
GSDMA, 2002. Post-earthquake rehabilitation: current status,
GSDMA Report, Gandhinagar, GSDMA Publication.
Jalali, R., 2003. Civil society and the state: Turkey after theearthquake. Disasters, 26 (2): 120-139.
Katayama T., 2003. Ten years with the World Seismic Safety
Initiative: Regional Development Dialogue, 24(1), 107-114.
MDG, 2003. Millennium Development Goals, available at
http://www.undp.org/mdg/

Attitudinal Change for Risk Reduction Actions

289

December 2003, Bangkok

7.

8.
9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.
15.

16.

17.

18.
19.

Nakagawa, Y. 2003. Social capital and disaster management: A
comparative case study of Kobe and Gujarat earthquake, Master
Thesis, Kobe University, Kobe.
Ogata S. and Sen A., 2003. Human Security Now. UN Publication,
NY
Safron P., 2003. Draft Emergency Assistance Policy of AsianDevelopment Bank, in: Rehabilitation of Afghanistan and Community
Sustainability, 79 pages, UNCRD Publication
Shaw, R., 2003. The role of non-government organizations inearthquake disaster management: An Asian perspective: Regional
Development Dialogue, 24(1), 117-129.
Shaw, R., Sinha, R., Goyal, A., Saita, J., Arai, H., Choudhury, M.,
Jaiswal, K., and Pribadi, K., 2001. The Bhuj Earthquake of January
2001: Miki, EDM-IIT Joint Publication, 157 p.
Shaw R., Gupta M., and Sharma A., 2003a. Community recovery andits sustainability: lessons from Gujarat earthquake of India, inAustralian Journal of Emergency Management, Volume 18, No. 2,
28-34.
Shaw R., Britton N., and Gupta M, 2003b. PNY: Towards sustainablecommunity recovery, 43 pages with CD-ROM, EDM-NCPDP-NGOs
KOBE- NSET Nepal-SEEDS-UNCRD Publication.
Shaw R. and Goda K., in press. From disaster to sustainablecommunity planning and development: the Kobe Experiences.
Shaw R., Shiwaku K., Kobayashi H. and Kobayashi M., in press.
Linking experience, knowledge, perception and earthquake
preparedness.
Tatsuki, S. and Hayashi, H., 1999. Determinants of the changes if
residence and life reconstruction among the 1995 Kobe earthquake
victims: The 24th Natural Hazard Workshop, Boulder.
Toshimaru, N., 1998. Are you prepared? Learning from the Great
Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, Handbook for disaster reduction
and volunteer activities, Hyogo University, Kobe.
Tsunehiro Y., Goda K., Shaw R., 2003. From disaster to community
development: The Kobe Experience, 95 pages, UNCRD Publication.
Twigg J., 2000. ‘The age of accountability?: future community
involvement in disaster reduction’, Australian Journal of Emergency
Management, Vol. Summer, pp. 51-58

Dr. R. Shaw from UNCRD

290

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

UNU-WSSI:
A PARTNERSHIP FOR GLOBALDISASTER RISK REDUCTION
S. HERATH
United Nations University
Japan

ABSTRACTUNU and WSSI had a long-standing partnership in Global risk
reduction. UNU had indeed taken an active role in the WSSI activities fromits inception and similarly WSSI had been a strong partner in UNU
initiatives. The common agenda has been directed towards understanding
underlying problems that contribute to the unabated increase in the global
disaster loses and exploring innovative and effective means to direct
resources to reverse the tide. Information dissemination and capacity
development activities that play an important role in building disaster
resilient communities in most affected and most deserving societies had
been and will continue to be a main area of collaboration.
A major challenge facing us in the new millennium is to achieve
Millennium Development Goals (MDG) set forth by the global community inorder to guarantee basic human security to the majority of the global
population. Risk reduction should be an integral part of these efforts asmeeting MDG’s is unlikely without a clear focus on risks and vulnerabilities.
Risk reduction for sustainable development and risk communication, aretherefore, important areas where UNU and WSSI can work together in the
future.

1.

INTRODUCTION TO UNU-ESD

The mission of United Nations University is ‘to contribute, throughresearch and capacity building, to efforts to resolve the pressing global
problems that are the concern of the United Nations, its Peoples andMember States’. It strives to achieve these goals through coordinatedactivities of 16 research and training centers with specific regional andglobal specializations that are located in different parts of the world. A
board of 24 eminent scholars acting in their personal capacities advises
UNU on its strategic research directions. In addition to its own RTC/RTP’s
UNU also collaborate with over 30 UN organizations and over 100 research
institutes globally. The headquarters located in Tokyo hosts two programs;‘Environment and Sustainable Development’ (UNU-ESD) and ‘Peace andGovernance’ (UNU-P&G). The UNU-ESD programme has a long history ofclose collaboration with WSSI.

291

December 2003, Bangkok

UNU’s Environment and sustainable Development (ESD) Programme
focuses on the interactions between human activities and the naturalenvironment, and their implications for sustainable human development. The
basic issues of human survival, development and welfare are at the core of thethemes covered within the realm of the ESD Programme. To achieve its
objectives, UNU’s ESD Programme adopts a multidisciplinary approachcombining both natural and social sciences. In implementing its activities, theESD Programme makes special efforts to include perspectives from both Northand South as well as from the countries with economies in transition.
Networking and capacity building, particularly in the developing countries are
given high priority.
Based on an appraisal of current challenges of these issues and the targets
set forth by the global community in addressing them through the MDGs,
WSSD and Action Plan as well as in response to issues brought about at the
WWF3 in Kyoto, ESD has organized its activities under four broad thematic
areas focusing on (a) Sustainable Urbanization (b) Managing Fragile Eco
Systems (c) Solutions to Water Crisis and (d) Environmental Governance andInformation. The projects under the theme (a) Sustainable Urbanization isespecially relevant to collaborative activities with WSSI, because they address
urban risk and vulnerability reduction issues.

2.

HISTORYUNU has long supported the WSSI initiative. It is significant that thefirst two workshops of WSSI, held in Bangkok, Thailand were sponsored by
UNU. There are a number of significant collaborative activities dating backmore than a decade. An early workshop in 1993, ‘Towards Natural Disaster
Risk Reduction’, organized as a collaborative effort by, INCEDE, theUniversity of Tokyo, WSSI and UNU as part of the Pacific Science
Association Inter-congress was one of the first truly multidisciplinary
gatherings to address disaster reduction efforts holistically by looking at risk
reduction needs across a matrix of disaster types and stakeholders. Thisinitiative was followed by a second 1995 workshop ‘Harnessing
communication revolution for natural disaster risk reduction’ where the usesof emerging information exchange facilitated by developments in Internet
and especially its relevance to developing countries was discussed at length.
The UNU – WSSI partnership has enabled organizing studies and seminars
in a number of such pioneering areas and was instrumental in raisingawareness among academics, practitioners and general public in emerging
issues and the necessity for multi-disciplinary dialogue. The most recent
activity of this partnership is the Public Forum in Tokyo, 2003 October,titled ‘Living with Risk – Are we prepared for the next big one?’ where thepast experiences, present policies and practices, economic risk andemergency planning were discussed in an event organized to commemorate
the 80th anniversary of ‘Great Kanto Earthquake’. In addition to suchactivities, UNU has contributed in many ways to the success of WSSI invarious capacities including being a member of the WSSI board of directors
in the past.

292

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

ICUS Report 5

3.

COMMON OBJECTIVES

A clear approach to risk & vulnerability reduction are important infighting poverty. Today there are tremendous pressures on natural resources by
the growing population and urbanization processes. The millennium
development goals define a set of targets to address the basic needs to ensure
human security, but the success of achieving that is remote without a clear
agenda on reducing risk and vulnerability. Risk reduction would ultimately
foster economic development and thus is an important development issue.
Dissemination of knowledge and experiences of successful approaches to risk
reduction is therefore very much a UNU agenda.
Earthquake risk reduction is vital not only for each urban centre, butalso for the global community, as in today’s highly inter-dependent worldsociety, a local catastrophic disaster can trigger adverse impacts on national,
regional and global well being. With the growing realization that preventing
or even predicting earthquakes is still a remote goal, more and moreemphasis is being placed on mitigating earthquake damage. Urban centres due to their very nature of constant expansion and dynamic change ofinfrastructure, together with complex interactions among various sectors ofsociety - pose tremendous challenges for earthquake risk reduction. It isnecessary to learn from the past and to work systematically and relentlessly
to make cities safer from earthquake damage. The WSSI programs inearthquake risk reduction in Mega Cities as well as in the developing world,
therefore, are very much in line with UNU efforts on ensuring sustainableurbanization.

4.

RESEARCH AREAS FOR COOPERATION

In addition to general areas of cooperation focusing on activities ofcommon interest, there are two specific UNU programs that provide
opportunities for UNU and WSSI communities to collaborate closely.
4.1

Multi-hazard risk assessment

Ensuring human security is one of the priority areas for a sustainableurbanization process. On one hand the rapid changes of urban landscape andever increasing expansion brings about unexpected risks to urban
communities. On the other hand concentration of wealth in major urban
centers poses huge economic risks in the event of a catastrophic disaster
resulting from events that exceed the design standards. The ESD project onurban risk assessment is composed of two sub programs: a) Multi-Hazards
Urban Risk Assessment with Dynamic Spatial Information, and b) Catastrophic
Flood Risk Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region. The program component a) focus
on assessing and reducing human vulnerability to disasters by looking at the
dynamic behavioral patterns of the urban communities to understand thecritical urban vulnerabilities brought about by the expanding urban infrastructure,especially those related to underground spaces. The program aims at developing
methodologies to collect high resolution dynamic spatial information related to

UNU-WSSI: A Partnership for Global DisasterRisk Reduction293

December 2003, Bangkok
urban infrastructure and human behavior and incorporate them in multi-hazard risk
assessment to facilitate implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.

4.2

Global Virtual University

Communicating risks to all stakeholders is an issue of paramount importance.
Increasing awareness among the ordinary public to reduce the vulnerability at
individual level through the dissemination of knowledge and experiences is one
area of contribution. The best practices, the effective methods that have been tested
over time, is another area where wide dissemination and knowledge sharing isimportant. Targeting the craftsmen at village level, who are the ones responsible
for non-engineering structures that suffer mostly in the event of a disaster isanother important aspect of risk education and risk communication.
The UNU Global Virtual University has been established to respond tosimilar needs, as a follow up of the education agenda adopted in the WSSD summit,
Johannesburg. In addition to conducting on-line courses in environment, GVU
develops training modules and information packages addressing specific topics andtargeting particular groups. Already a M.Sc. course in Environmental management
has been started and production of short topics/course would follow. Over the years
WSSI has conducted a number of specific projects addressing earthquake risk
reduction issues. It is necessary to widely distribute the best practices to all
stakeholders widely. Harnessing the wide reach of UNU-GVU to disseminate bestpractices collected or initiated by WSSI could be a very effective means ofreaching large populations at risk and replicating the successful experiences at alarge scale.

5.

WAY FORWARD

The UNU – WSSI association in the past has produced tangible
positive results that both parties can be proud of. We hope this relationshipwould be strengthened in the future, and that UNU - WSSI could provide
strong contribution to tackle the broader agenda of development process.
Eradicating poverty and reducing vulnerability are two of the most pressing
problems facing humankind today. It is necessary to find innovative
solutions that could address both these issues and implement them throughthe existing networks of researches and practitioners.

REFERENCE
1.

2.

294

Herath S., and Katayama, T. (ed.) (1994), Towards Natural Disaster
Reduction, Proc. VII Pacific Science Association Inter Congress
Symposium on Disaster Reduction, INCEDE Report 4, University ofTokyo. p. 195.
Herath, S. (ed.) (1996) Harnessing Communication RevolutionCreation of a Global Disaster Information Network, Proc. XVIII
Pacific Science Congress Symposium on Disaster Reduction,
INCEDE Report 8, University of Tokyo, p. 202.

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region

TRANSFER LIVE LESSONS OFCATASTROPHIC DISASTERS
Y. FUKASAWA
Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Institution
Japan

1.

INTRODUCTION

In the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995, the people in theaffected areas went through a tremendous amount of very strong feelings ofanger, fear, sadness, pain, and guilt -- not to mention the acute final
suffering of those who died, which cannot even be known to the survivors.
In the process of response, relief, recovery and reconstruction the people
had many deep regrets about the lack of preparedness, the lack of mitigation,
and wrong choices that they had to make in unclear situations. And yet, thepeople were unexpectedly introduced to the human warmth of theircommunal living, the goodness in people, and a renewed appreciation for
the value of life.
Since the 1995 Earthquake significant improvements in many areas
have been made to disaster reduction systems in Japan, from the community
level to the top policy level. It is indeed their strong feelings that madepeople feel greatly motivated and highly responsible for taking concrete
steps forward. The passion was shared even by policy makers in the capital.
The disaster had a major impact in stimulating the growth of the volunteer
movement and the establishment of the non-governmental organization(NGO) sector throughout Japan.
In implementing risk management and disaster reduction policies andactivities, it is extremely important and effective to maintain such strong
feelings.
If live experiences and lessons of severe disasters areappropriately demonstrated and transferred, these lessons can be a very
effective way by which individuals, communities, and other stakeholders
can be personally motivated to take concrete actions in implementing
disaster prevention and reduction policies. These passionate feelings canactively fuel disaster reduction.
On the other hand, such feelings tend to fade rapidly. It is natural thatmany ordinary citizens wish to forget their harsh experiences and feelings sotheir lives can return to normal. Thus, special efforts are needed to preserve
the strong feelings after mega-size disasters to continue disaster reduction
progress, individually as well as collectively. However, until now there has
been no comprehensive disaster reduction policy from the standpoint oflocal communities and individuals. The 1995 Great Hanshin Awaji
Earthquake has taught us the importance of the victims’ perspective. By"transferring live lessons of catastrophic disasters" we will help to ensurethat future victim numbers are minimized.

269

December 2003, Bangkok

2.

PROPOSED VIEWPOINTS

From these viewpoints, the following should be proposed.
1.

Governments and the people of each disaster stricken area should
begin to organize in their respective ways to “transfer live lessons ofcatastrophic disasters,” in particular to their citizens and communities.
Through such activities, the same level of tragedy may be prevented.

2.

There are many ways and many methods for transferring these lessons
such as museum facilities, story-telling in systematic ways, films,
cartoons, music, cultural events and many other educational activities.
Major benefits can be gained without incurring a great deal of cost.
Each government and supporting organization should recognize theimportance of transferring live lessons and start supporting suchactivities.

3.

These viewpoints should be made available to the international
community, in particular to the UN Secretariat of ISDR for further
consideration.
They also should be clearly reflected in theforthcoming discussions concerning disaster prevention to be held ineach country and within the international community during theprocess of preparing for the UN World Conference on Disaster
Reduction 2005 to be held in Kobe, Hyogo.

4.

The Disaster Reduction Alliance (DRA), consisting of 12
organizations active internationally on disaster reduction issues andsituated in HAT Kobe (New Eastern City Center), together with the
Hyogo Prefectural Government held the Disaster Reduction Forum
2004, with the theme of "Transfer Live Lessons of Catastrophic
Disasters," on February 8 at the International Conference Center inKobe. The Disaster Reduction Alliance (DRA) plans to argue
thoroughly, making the most of the result of that forum.

Dr. Y. Fukasawa from Japan

270

Seismic Risk Management for Countries of the Asia Pacific Region