Impacts of the changing land-based cryosphere on
Arctic society
The cross-cutting activity
The proposed cross-cutting activity on “Impacts of the changing land-based cryosphereon Arctic society” will be implemented in the next annual meeting of the IASC Network on
Arctic Glaciology (NAG; http://nag.iasc.info) and “Workshop on the Dynamics and Mass
Budget of Arctic Glaciers”, to be held in January 2025, most likely in Hokkaido, Japan. The
Network on Arctic Glaciology has a long history of implementing cross-cutting activities in theannual workshop, thereby fostering collaboration between glaciology and a range of otherdisciplines. The proposed activity can be regarded as a follow-up on our most recent activity
on “Societal impacts of glacier and snow cover changes in a warming Arctic”, in the upcoming
IASC NAG meeting on 22-24 January 2024 in Obergurgl, Austria, for which 53 people haveregistered (15-20 direct contributions to the cross-cutting activity). In addition to the previously
involved IASC Cryosphere, Atmosphere, and Social & Human WGs, the proposed activity
newly includes the Terrestrial Working Group, stimulated by the new additional focus onsocietal impacts of permafrost change in the Arctic. The term “land-based cryosphere”
above hence refers to glaciers, seasonal snow and permafrost. The main incentives are tostimulate increased collaboration of glaciologists, snow experts, permafrost researchers andsocial scientists, as well as to engage knowledge holders from Arctic communities. The crosscutting activity will be in the form of oral and poster presentation sessions and a discussion
session during one day of the 2.5-day meeting. A call for abstracts will open in September andclose in November 2024. The meeting will be announced via mailing lists (e.g. the Cryolist),
via the IASC and IASC NAG websites, and on social media.
Scientific background
The Arctic climate system has warmed at more than twice the average rate observed in theNorthern Hemisphere between 1971 and 2017 (AMAP, 2019) as a result of Arctic
Amplification. The increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere induces an increasein Arctic precipitation, with increases in both averages and extremes of snowfall and evenmore so of rainfall (e.g. Bintanja, 2018).
The rapid warming has triggered an acceleration of Arctic glacier and ice sheet mass loss,
which since the 1990s accounted for ~30% of total sea level rise. Increased melting andchanges in precipitation amount and type affect glacier dynamics, primarily through basal
sliding, which, together with changing fjord and ocean conditions also affect frontal ablationand calving of icebergs. Increased snowfall may partially offset melt increases, whereas more
rainfall generally increases refreezing in seasonal snow and multi-year snow (firn) (e.g. VanPelt et al. 2021). Extensive firn areas on Arctic ice caps can retain melt and rainwater in solidform (as refrozen ice layers) and in liquid form (as perennial firn aquifers), but this “buffer” isshrinking rapidly in many Arctic regions (e.g. Noël et al. 2020).
The duration of the snow season in the Arctic, both on- and off-glacier, is shortening (~3-5days per decade; Bokhorst et al. 2016), yet with strong variations depending on region, latitude
and study period (Barichivich et al. 2013). Arctic warming further induces an increase in rain-on-snow (ROS) events, as well as a general increase in precipitation, with significant impacts
on snow depth, season length and stratigraphy (Serreze et al. 2021), thereby also affecting
timing and rates of runoff.
A third component of the land-based cryosphere, permafrost, has undergone significant
changes in the Arctic in recent decades. Rising temperatures have caused the top layer ofpermafrost to melt, leading to the destabilization of the ground. This thawing has resulted inchanges to the landscape, causing land subsidence, sinking of infrastructure, and alterationsin ecosystems. Furthermore, permafrost thawing is associated with the release of carbon
dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. An estimated 2.5 million square miles ofpermafrost, equivalent to 40 percent of the world’s total, could disappear by the end of thecentury (Chadburn et al. 2017).
Presentation and discussion topics
The traditional ways of life and well-being of many northern residents are affected by climateinduced changes in glaciers, seasonal snow conditions, and the state of permafrost. Below,
we highlight some of the key societal impacts of trends in the three land-based cryospherecomponents.
Societal impacts of glacier retreat:
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Coastal communities: Glacier and ice sheet mass loss are major contributors to sea
level rise, affecting societies worldwide. In the Arctic, sea level rise affects coastal
communities, primarily due to coastal erosion, threats to infrastructure and permafrost
thawing, potentially requiring relocation and having large impacts on traditional
livelihoods (Nielsen et al. 2022).
Water resources: Communities relying on glacier meltwater for drinking, agriculture,and hydropower face challenges as this water source diminishes, potentially leading
to water shortages and affecting livelihoods (Instanes et al. 2015).
Natural hazards: The retreat of glaciers can trigger various natural hazards. Glacier
outburst floods (GLOFs), i.e. sudden catastrophic releases of water from glacial lakes,
are common with glacier retreat, yet poorly studied (Emmer 2018). Other natural
hazards include e.g. changes in river routes impacting infrastructure, such as bridges,that may need to be changed to fit the new rivers.
Tourism: Changes in Arctic glacier landscapes and accessibility may affect income
from tourism and dependent industries in the region (Varnajot et al. 2021).
Cultural impacts: Indigenous communities often have deep connections to glaciers,
considering them as an integral part of their cultural identity. Glacier retreat disrupts
these cultural connections, affecting their traditional lifestyle (Hovelsrud et al. 2011).

Societal impacts of seasonal snow trends:●Rain-on-snow (ROS): During ROS events, rain falls on existing snow and due torefreezing hard crusts/ice layers form within or at the base of the snowpack. In theArctic, such events can have profound immediate economic and environmentalimpacts (e.g. affecting travel and agriculture), as well as cumulative impacts,

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potentially resulting in starvation of reindeer, musk oxen and other grazing animals(Rosqvist et al. 2022).
Extreme precipitation events: In a warmer Arctic climate, the frequency of extremesnow- and rainfall events are expected to increase (Loeb et al. 2022). Large
unknowns however remain, primarily due to difficulties in observing precipitation in
the Arctic. Extreme precipitation events may destabilize and damage e.g.
infrastructure, buildings and forests (Lehtonen et al. 2016).
Hydropower potential: Increasing precipitation and snowfall in the Arctic enhanceshydropower potential in a future climate. While this may potentially yield economic
benefits for Arctic communities, it does come with social costs, e.g. for indigenous
communities, following changes in the natural environment (Engen et al. 2022).
Snow cover duration: Shorter snow seasons in the Arctic are favorable for
agriculture, yet other constraints, such as remoteness, lacking infrastructure and low
population numbers persist (Hovelsrud et al. 2011). Furthermore, a shorter snow
season reduces mobility in the Arctic, e.g. by limiting wintertime overland transport(Gädeke et al. 2021).
Avalanches: In a warmer and wetter climate, the frequency and type of avalancheschange, which has impacts on Arctic societies, e.g. through potential loss of life andthe need for adaptation of infrastructure and buildings (e.g. Eckerstorfer et al. 2011).

Societal impacts of permafrost thaw:●●●●

Release of greenhouse gases (GHG): Permafrost holds large amounts of organic
matter that have been preserved in a frozen state. Its thaw releases significant
quantities of methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (e.g. Knoblauch et al.
2018), leading to a feedback loop with amplified global warming and increased GHG
release. Additionally, the development and implementation of methane budget
policies for Arctic communities warrant attention and consideration.
Infrastructure challenges: Thawing permafrost poses challenges for infrastructure
built on these frozen grounds (e.g. Hjort et al. 2022). Roads, buildings, pipelines, andother structures are vulnerable to damage or collapse as the ground beneath thembecomes less stable.
Ecosystem changes: Permafrost thaw disrupts Arctic ecosystems. It alters
vegetation patterns, affects wildlife habitats, and can lead to changes in theavailability of water, impacting the delicate balance of these environments (Schuur &Mack 2018).
Coastal erosion: Thawing permafrost contributes to coastal erosion in Arcticregions. The loss of permafrost stability along coastlines leads to the collapse of landmasses, threatening communities and infrastructure (e.g. Ogorodnov et al. 2020).
Among others, this poses a severe threat for many well-preserved archaeologicalsites in Greenland (Fenger-Nielsen et al. 2020).

Psychological impacts of the changing land-based cryosphere
Rapid changes in the Arctic climate cause traditional ways of life to become less viable for
Arctic indigenous communities (Madden, 2021). This has a marked impact on mental health,affecting in particular the wellbeing of adolescents, resulting for example in increased suicide
rates (Larsen et al. 2014). Climate change impacts and the changing environment haverecently been found to not only restrict mobility and disrupt livelihoods but also affect mental
health primarily through changes in culture, food access, housing, as well as interpersonal
relations (Lebel et al. 2022). Increased information exchange between scientists and local
communities may stimulate greater awareness of environmental changes and greater
edngagement in conservation efforts.