ICUS NEWSLETTER

International Center for Urban Safety Engineering
Institute of Industrial Science
The University of Tokyo

VOLUME 9 NUMBER 2
JULY– SEPTEMBER 2009

MODELLING VOLCANIC RISK IN TOKYO
By
Christina Magill1
The 1707 Hoei eruption of
the Mount Fuji deposited four
centimetres of tephra in central
Tokyo with much larger thicknesses
falling in Western Kanagawa. A
repeat of this event would havesevere economic consequences for
the Greater Tokyo area, causing
follow-on effects to Japanese andglobal economies. But what is theprobability of such an event? Should
Tokyo prepare for more likely
scenarios? And what resources
will be required to manage future
volcanic crises? Risk Frontiers, inconjunction with the International
Center for Urban Safety Engineering,
have developed TokioKazanRisk,a volcanic hazard and risk modelthat provides a framework forinvestigating questions such asthese. Support for this project
was provided by Tokio Marine &Nichido Risk consulting Co., Ltd.
TokioKazanRisk
incorporates
a catalogue of tephra dispersal
simulations from six volcanic
centres - Fuji, Asama, Hakone,
Haruna, Kusatsu-Shirane and KitaYatsugatake - located to the west ofGreater Tokyo. To calculate building
damage and to estimate clean-up
requirements and costs, hazard
information is combined with abuilding, road and land-usage database
describing
Tokyo,
Kanagawa,

Saitama and Chiba prefectures. New
visualization techniques allow hazard
and risk results for these areas to beviewed within mapping applications
such as Google Earth.
TEPHRA DISPERSALMODELLING
The tephra dispersal catalogue
contained within TokioKazanRisk
was developed with the use of
TEPHRA2 – an analytical tephra

advection diffusion model developed
at the University of Southern Florida.
Using stratified wind speed anddirection information, TEPHRA2
calculatesparticle
dispersion,transport and sedimentation, andestimates tephra accumulation at
specified locations surrounding thesource location.
Extensive calibration was carriedout to refine the constants used in
TokioKazanRisk. In particular, theHoei eruption was intensely studied.

Average Annual Building Loss (AAL) in Japanese yen
mapped on a 1 km grid

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 2The six volcanoes and four prefecturesconsidered with TokioKazanRisk
Parallel computing techniques were
utilised to simulate large numbersof eruptions for each volcanic
centre. Wind speed and direction
profiles with height were sampled
randomly
andvolcanologicalparameters selected from magnitude/frequency curves were developed todescribe previous activity, current
eruption trends and to account for
the volcanoes inherent future
unpredictability. Hazard resultswith corresponding probabilities
are stored within TokioKazanRisk
on a 1 km mesh grid.
SAMPLING
EXTREME EVENTS
Volcanic centres are capable ofproducing explosive volcanic events
that may vary by more than five ordersof magnitude. Traditional hazard
modelling samples a fixed time
period and simulates the expected
events within this period. Using thisapproach, all events are assigned anequal probability of occurrence andtherefore small magnitude events
are sampled preferentially.
Indeveloping
magnitude/frequency relationships, event
magnitude is represented by tephra
volume, which we assume has adirect logarithmic relationship to the

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Isopacs of the 1707 Hoei Eruption(depths of air-fall tephra in mm)

Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) roof surfaces and exterior fittings
scale. In the modelling carried out caused by tephra particles.
to create the TokioKazanRisk tephra ・ clean-up costs - the removal,
catalogue, VEI is sampled uniformly transport and disposal of tephrawith probabilities retained and from properties and the cleaning ofutilised in later calculations. This building exteriors.
methodology is more economic in its
storage requirements and provides
VISUALISING
better sampling of the entire range
PROBABILISTIC HAZARD
of eruption possibilities.
AND RISKRISK CALCULATION
TokioKazanRisk currently focuseson two major outcomes from airfall tephra – building damage andthe necessity for clean-up activities.
Exposure information is either
a user portfolio or the included
database that describes building
characteristics, roads and land-usage
on a 1 km grid covering the entire
Greater Tokyo area. This databaseincorporates an extensive surveyof buildings, where characteristics
including building condition androof construction were collected.
Building damage and associatedlosses due to three causes arecalculated:
・ structural damage - the partial orcomplete collapse of buildings dueto the weight of tephra.
・ non-structural damage - thecorrosion and abrasion to walls,

Probabilistic hazard and risk
results for particular locations may
be plotted against their annual
probability of exceedance or average
recurrence interval. Statistics, suchas average annual loss or expectedannual probability for a given volumeof tephra, can also be recovered andthe output presented in Keyhole
Markup Language (KML) allowing
easy mapping within applications
such as Google Earth.
A PLATFORM FOR
HAZARD MANAGEMENT
As well as building damage,
TokioKazanRisk calculates impacts
to various land-usage types, e.g. thebuilt environment, agricultural areas
and roads. The probable volumes oftephra to fall on each of these land
use categories are calculated and,in the case of roads and the builtPage 3All
Kita-Yatsugatake

Kusatsu-Shirane
Fuji

HarunaHakone

Asama

105

Hours

104
103
102
101
102

103
104
105
Average Recurrence interval (years)

Vehicle hours required for cleaning roads
against Average Recurrence Interval
environment, the model estimates
the personnel, equipment and hours
needed for clean-up activities. Data
analysed to allow these calculations
were provided by the Kagoshima
and Tarumizu City Halls who haveexperienced frequent tephra-fallevents from Sakurajima volcano.
To aid in emergency management
planning,
individual
eruption
scenarios may be mapped with

106

Tephra mass mapped on a 1 km gridfor a single event from Fuji volcano

hazard presented on a mesh grid.
This allows for various scenarios to
be studied in detail.
The
modularnatureofTokioKazanRisk means that themodel will be a useful tool formany future risk applications. By
incorporating additional exposureand vulnerability information,
probabilistic estimates of impacts
to utilities, transport, agriculture,business and health can all be
made.
(Support for this project wasprovided by Tokio Marine & Nichido
Risk consulting Co., Ltd)
Risk Frontiers,
Macquarie University,
Sydney, Australia
1

Flood Damage in Japan
Strong rain hit the southern partof Japanese island during July 19
and 26. This caused 31 deaths, 55
injured, 48 totally damaged houses
and more than 10 thousand flooded
houses in the affected area.
Especially, Boufu City in
Yamaguchi Prefecture recorded
rainfall of 72.5mm per hour around
9:00 A.M. on 21st July. Total rainfall
amounted to be almost twice theaverage monthly rainfall in July.
In Manao region of Boufu City,
landslide due to the heavy rain hit
a special nursing home for the aged
and killed 7 people. At that time,
100 aged people were in the middleof their breakfast. Debris flew frommountain side buried dining spaceon the first floor. The home was
located in the red zone of landslidedisaster. Yamaguchi Prefecture
provided warning information oflandslide disaster to Boufu City at
7:40 A.M. in the morning. However,the city didn’t announce the warning

to a special nursing home andevacuation before the landslide was
not achieved.
Recently technologies increased
the possibility of early warning
before disasters. However, thesewarning should be conveyed to theproper facilities and persons andused for mitigation of damages.
The strong rain in the summer 2009
in Japan reminded the difficulty ofsuccessful use of early warning.
(By M. Ohara)

Landslide hitting a nursing home in Boufu City(© Pasco Co., Kokusai Kogyo Co. Ltd.; Distribution: Pasco Co.)

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 4REPORT ON THE WEST JAVA EARTHQUAKEON SEPTEMBER 2, 2009
By
Teddy Boen & Danny Hilman Natawidjaja2
1

General seismotectonic map of west Java region. The island sits above the Hindia-Australian plate that is being
subducted beneath Java starting from the WNW side trending through deep ocean with a northerly motion of
about 70 mm/year relative to the Eurasian plate. Yellow dots are shallow earthquakes (less than 100 km depth)
from 1973 to 2009 from National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (NEIC-USGS)
catalog. The red and white stars are main shocks determined by USGS and Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Dan
Geofisika (Indonesian Metereological and Geophysical Agency, BMKG) for the recent large event. Red lines on
Java land are preliminary active fault lines mapped from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM).
In the afternoon of September
2, 2009 a large earthquake (M7.0)
occured about 50 kilometers off thesouth coast of west Java, Indonesia.
According to the NEIC-USGS
report, the earthquake source islocated at about 7.7 S and 107.32 E
at a depth of about 50 kilometer. As
a comparison, the BMKG reported
the earthquake epicenter further
away trenchward with a source
depth of about 30 kilometers. The
fault mechanisms, given by the
USGS Centroid Moment Tensor(CMT) solution, shows that theearthquake fault is a reverse fault
striking NNE and dipping steeply
about 45 degree. This clearly
indicates that the earthquake is an

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

intra-slab event, not on the Javamegathrust, which stikes WNW anddips shallow towards the north. The
megathrust section in the south ofwest Java and the Sunda Strait has
no history of major earthquakes in
the past 100 years, suggesting it is aseismic gap, which may have been
acumulating a large amount of strain
to produce a giant megathrust event.
However, there is not much GPS
data to determine or map coupling
properties or degree of locking of
the subduction interface, so then,
one can estimates what portion of
the relative plate motion that has
been stored as earthquake ammos.
Hence, the threats of earthquake
shakes and tsunami from the Javamegathrust remains unclear.
The news regarding the damage of
the September 2, 2009 earthquake inthe media was a bit confusing. All
media related the magnitude of theearthquake with destruction. The
earthquake had a large magnitude(Mw7.0, USGS). However, thedistance of the epicenter fromseveral cities/villages where somedamage occurred, was more than
one hundred kilometer. Also, theepicenter depth was not shallow
and was about 50km (according
to USGS). Usually, the shaking ofan earthquake with Mw7.0 could
be felt within a radius of 400 km
and might cause damage withina radius of approximately 80 km.

Page 5Many houses collapsed in various forms from the earthquake. Pictures show collapsed houses from
Pameungpeuk (left), Margamukti Village-Pangalengan (center) and Cigalontang –Tasikmalaya (right).
In fact, such an event should notcause significant damage beyond a
100 km radius. Unfortunately, thisearthquake, so far has caused 76
casualties.
The damaged areas are scatteredand the damage itself in each areais sporadic. Most of the damaged
and /or collapsed buildings are nonengineered construction, built withpoor quality materials combinedwith poor workmanship, resulting
in very poor quality houses withno resilience to earthquakes. Also,
most of the damaged buildings
were dilapidated due to lack ofmaintenance causing deteriorationof the materials strength. Nonengineered buildings consist mostlyof houses and several one story
school buildings.
The nearest damaged areas fromthe epicenter are Sindangbarang
which is approximately 50 km fromthe epicenter, and Pameungpeuk andCikelet which are approximately
60 km from the epicenter. In thoseplaces the damage was quite
substantial, but sporadic.
Approximately 50% of the houses

were damaged, ranging fromslight to collapse. Rest 50% of
the buildings are still intact. The
second closest area to the epicenter
is Cikangkareng Village (Cibinong,
Cianjur), approximately 80 km fromthe epicenter. The earthquake caused
landslides, burying 12 houses, where
30 people died; the biggest humancasualties in a single place from theSeptember 2, 2009 earthquake. The
earthquake also caused damage inareas far from the epicenter, namely
in Pangalengan approximately
125 km from the epicenter, inTasikmalaya approximately 140 km
from the epicenter and in Sukabumi
approximately 155 km from theepicenter.
The extent of the destruction bythat earthquake deserved careful
investigation. Investigation wasneeded on the cause of the groundmotion and the geologic condition
to know why that earthquake with
an epicenter at a depth of 50 km didcause damage to non-engineeredbuildings that are relatively rigid
in places more than a hundred
kilometers away, apart from the factthat the damaged and/or collapsedbuildings are poorly built.
In big cities, particularly Jakarta,
tall buildings were swaying andcaused tremendous panic among
the occupants and everybody
started rushing to get out of thebuildings while the buildings werestill swaying. In the course of
the escape, some were injured.
Subsequently everybody gatheredin the streets, causing a chaotic
situation and traffic jam. Several of
those tall buildings suffered minor
non structural damage only.
Actually, the damage or collapseof non engineered construction isa repetition of all past occurrences
and is a demonstration that notmuch has been done with regard to
non-engineered buildings. All thedamage to those non-engineered
construction and the casualties
could be prevented if the authority
has a plan to prepare, prevent or
mitigate the effects of earthquakes.
World Seismic Safety InitiativeIndonesian Institute of Sciences1

2

Left: Lanslide at Cikangkareng Village from the earthquake; Right: Panic and chaos in front ofIndonesia Stock Exchange after the earthquake (courtesy: kompas.com)

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 6

Report on Suruga Bay Earthquake, Japan

Collapsed stone wall
due to the earthquake
An earthquake with magnitude of
Displacement at 8th floor in C-block and ground surface at IIS
6.5 and centered 23 km below theseabed in Suruga bay in Shizuoka front of a government building, was 622.65 cm in the north and south
Prefecture occurred on August collapsed by the seismic shaking. direction respectively. Therefore,
11, 2009. After its occurrence, The acceleration meter installed by large displacement was caused in
the possibility of the expected ICUS, observed the seismic response the direction of EW. Similarly, theTokai earthquake was examined at IIS, University of Tokyo, which track of displacement at the ground
immediately. However, the results is located around 120 km from the level was obtained. Accumulated
showed that, this earthquake was earthquake epicenter.
displacement in the EW and NS
not the expected Tokai earthquake as
Accelerometer installed at the directions were recorded as 428.75
the magnitude was smaller than the 8th floor of C-block of IIS building cm and 451.53 cm respectively.
expected value and it was not a plate recorded the maximum structural The response of the building wasboundary type earthquake.
response of 62.28 gal in the east- dominant in the EW direction.
The seismic energy in this west (EW) direction due to the
The response spectra of the mainearthquake was about 1/180th of earthquake.
shaking were calculated and thethat of the expected Tokai earthquakeThehorizontal
acceleration relationship between the ground(expected to be of M8 class) and record observed at the 8th floor motion and structural response are
the range of dominant period was of C-block of IIS building was determined. The dominant period
smaller than 0.5 seconds or less. Also, converted into displacement, and in the directions of NS and EW ofdamage due to this earthquake was track of displacement was plotted. IIS building were 0.50s and 0.57s
far smaller compared to the damage The maximum displacement was respectively due to both the big input(the number of casualties, damage to 0.56 cm in the 8th floor of C block on motion and lower structural stiffnesssocial infrastructures and economic the east side, and the accumulated in the EW direction. The dominantloss) estimated to be caused by the displacements were 761.40 cm and period in the direction of NS and EW
expected Tokai earthquake. In pastof ground response spectrum ratio
earthquake disasters, the component(ground surface 0m and the 18mof seismic ground motion with about
depth) were 0.27s for both directions.
1 second or more caused large
This can lead to the difference of thedamages to the structures.
predominant period between ground
Shortly after the earthquake, I
response as input motion to the IIS
visited the site to have a meetingbuilding.
with Mr. Hikoyama, the crisisThe damage caused by the expected
management bureau of Shizuoka
Tokai Earthquake (M8) is estimatedPrefecture, to enquire about housing
to be about 5,900 human deaths,
damages, governmental action toabout 19,000 serious injuries andthe damages and the economic loss
about 190,000 collapsed buildings.
in industries. Few causalities andThis earthquake on August 11, 2009
extensive damages to housing wereshould be used as an opportunity tocaused in Shizuoka Prefecture. The
promote and check countermeasures
main reason why the structuralto the future expected Tokaidamage was not so heavy was due
earthquake, which has a 87%
to the short-period seismic wave.
probability to occur within coming
The damage to the housing roof
30 years.
was predominant. The stone wall
Seismic wave on 8th floor
RC58 regularmeeting insnapshotC-block of IIS buildingof Sunpu castle, situatedjust in(By M. Numada)

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 7

Robust Optimum Design for Smoke Control Systemusing CFD and Genetic Algorithms
Due to progressive urbanization,
there has been a rapid increase incomplex buildings over recent years.
There is an increasing risk that evena small mistake in operation ofdisaster management systems maylead to a huge disaster in the eventof fire or terrorism activity involving
biochemical weapons, because of thecomplexity of the nonlinear airflow
paths in the complex buildings.
In order to prevent or minimize
such disaster, disaster management
systems should be appropriately
designed with consideration of
their reliability and robustness.
In this research, robust optimum
design method for smoke control
systems in buildings is developed
using an approach which couples
Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) with Genetic Algorithms(GA).
Optimization system
and GA method
The optimization system coupling
CFD and GA for smoke control
design, which is based on a feedback
system is shown in the figure below.
The system constitutes three parts:A) Setting of the optimal problem;B) CFD analysis of fire dynamics;
C) Evaluation of the smoke-control
system and optimal process control.

The feedback loop shown in the
figure below will continue until
the optimum solution satisfies thedesign objective.
GA is used to select the optimum
solution candidates, and to control
the optimum inquiry process. GA isa method that enables optimization
problems to be solved by imitating
the organic evolutionary process.
The individual with the highest
fitness value among the investigatedindividuals becomes the optimum
individual.
General optimization
and robust optimization
General optimization usuallyseeks out the optimal combinationof design parameters under a fixedenvironmental condition. However,in practice, environmental conditions
usually change or fluctuate. We do
not know if this optimum design
will function smoothly under thesechanges. Such uncertainty is very
dangerous in a system or product.
The objective of robust design isto ensure a robust system undervarying environmental conditions
and to consider the variability in thesystem’s components. Therefore,robustness means system stability
within the effects of environmental
fluctuations. Robust design covers not

only the optimum for the objectivefunction, but also minimize
variation in responses arising fromany fluctuations.
Design object
The design object is shown in the
top-left figure next page. This is a
simplified office building with 10
stories. The smoke control system
consists of a smoke extractor in theoffice and a pressurization process
through the vestibule. The vestibule
is pressurized with outdoor air
using a supply fan to prevent smokefrom entering the vestibule and thestairwell.
Design process
Two design cases, i.e., general
optimum design and robust design
were conducted. For the generaldesign, maximizing the average
airflow rate through the doorway
between the vestibule and thecorridor during the evacuation timeis selected as the design objective.
Robust design involves maximizing
the above average airflow rate andat the same time minimizing thevariation of the airflow rate arisingfrom some uncertainty. Here, theuncertain fire location is set as theuncertainty. Patterns (location, size)of smoke extraction vents and air

Optimal design system coupling CFD and GA for smoke control design

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 8The design object
supply vents are set as design parameter. Optimum combination ofthese parameters will be designed.
Results
In case of the general design, forthe extraction vent in the room, it
agrees with the common perceptionthat the extraction vents are best
set in the ceiling rather than the
sidewalls. In the vestibule, vents inthe ceiling and facing wall are a good
choice. The curve of the GA inquiry
for the robust design is shown in
the top-right figure. The horizontal

Curve of GA inquiry in robust design
axis shows the Run Counter for the
optimum selection process, and thevertical axis shows the objectivefunction (A combination functionof airflow rate and the variation).
This shows that the objectivefunction converges to its optimalvalue after 300 runs, The maximum
airflow through the doorway of thevestibule is 2.334 m3/s. This is alittle lower than the optimum design.
From the result of the best pattern,
it is indicated that square vents
provide a robust design. Throughrobust analysis, it is shown that the

airflow rate is lower in the robust
design, however, the unevenness issmaller. This means that under thesame environmental fluctuations,the change in the optimum designis larger, demonstrating that thegeneral optimum design is sensitive.
If there is a large fluctuation, thishas a greater possibility of failing tooperate satisfactorily.
(By H. Huang,
Center for Public Safety Research,
Tsinghua University, China)

Survey on a New Tsunami Disaster Mitigation System

Interview with potential userof TDMS
From September 18 to 24,
2009, Professor K. Meguro, Dr.
M. Takashima from Fuji Tokoha
University and two graduate
students of Meguro lab. visited
Phuket and Phang Nga in Thailand.
The major purposes of the visit wereto investigate recovery situationof the affected sites due to the2004 Sumatra Earthquake induced
Tsunami and to survey potential
needs and users’ opinions for a newtsunami disaster mitigation system(TDMS) proposed by Prof. Meguro
and his research group.
The system proposed by Prof.
Meguro combining a reliable but
simple warning system and proper

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

evacuation facilities, does nothave the practical difficulties ofother systems currently proposed
elsewhere. The warning system
consists of a multi-purpose marine
observation buoy network that can be
operated by local organizations suchas hotels and beach associations.
This is a community-based mutual
support system and tsunami leading
time can be guaranteed by the othernetwork member buoys. Importantcharacteristics of this system are
its simplicity, economical efficiency
and daily-usability. Information ontemperature, current velocity, wave
height, moisture, etc. obtained by thebuoys can benefit business activitiesof the users. These information
would also help in environmental
monitoring and awareness generation,
thereby further benefitting the region
and the businesses. These factors inturn will motivate the users to play amajor role in maintaining the systemthemselves. Our estimates show
that, just by collecting only 1 USD
per night above the room rate of theparticipating hotels, maintenance costfor the system could be adequately
raised.
As for evacuation facilities, Prof.
Meguro has proposed to use thereligious places of worship along thecoastal line in the region whose location
is carefully selected based on tsunami
inundation simulation. This scheme
has two main advantages. Because
worship centers are frequently usedby people, their location is wellknown for efficient evacuation whena notice is issued. Additionally, as
the people feel strong commitment
to these facilities, they take active
participation in their building andmaintenance.
Unlike countermeasures such as
landuse control, with the proposed
TDMS, people can manage their own
businesses and reduce future tsunami
disaster without changing their life
style. From our interview survey, we
could obtain very supportive opinionsfrom users and understand potential
needs of multi-purpose marine
observation buoy network system.
(By K. Meguro)Page 9Evaluation of ICUS Activities by External Experts

Snapshot of the External Evaluation Committee Meeting
On March 2011, ICUS completes
its tenth year of establishment.
In order to continue its activities
effectively with a vision for asafe urban environment, ICUS
carried out an external evaluationof its extensive activities since
its establishment till now from abalanced perspective, both of its
academic and social contributions.
The external reviewers, consistedof six eminent experts inductedfrom relevant fields from Japan andoverseas countries, were namely(1) Dr. Hisashi Tarumi, President,
Railway
Technical
Research
Institute, (2) Dr. Kenji Sakata,
Professor Emeritus, Okayama
University and Chairman of theJapan Concrete Institute, (3) Dr.
Haresh C. Shah, Professor Emeritus,
Stanford University and founderof Risk Management Solutions(RMS), (4) Dr. Satoru Nishikawa,Director, Water Resources Policy,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport (MLIT), Japan, andex-UN Secretariat for International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction(UN-ISDR), (5) Dr. Fan Weicheng,
Professor, Tsinghua University,
Director of the Public Safety
Research Center (CPSR), andMember of the China Academy ofEngineering, and (6) Dr. Haruhisa
Shimoda, Director of Space Information Center, Tokai University
and President of Commission VIII
(Remote Sensing Applications andPolicies), International Society
for Photogrammetry and Remote
Sensing (ISPRS).
The
evaluationcommittee
meeting was hosted at ICUS on 4th
and 5th August for evaluation of
its activities. The reviewers were
presented with reports beforehand

describing the overview of the ICUS
activities since its establishment to2008, PowerPoint slides (about 100
sheets each covering approximately
15 selected research topics of eachdivision) describing its activities andtrack record of its three divisions
were sent to them.
At the meeting, ICUS faculties, led
by Prof. K. Meguro, Director, ICUS
gave explanations on its activities.
Detailed explanations were given
on key research topics by its threedivisions. Also, explanations on
the future plans of a post-ICUS
center were given. After two days ofextensive and rigorous interactive
evaluation, reviews were received
in writing about a week later.
The reviewers noted that extensive
research findings have been madein various topics related to urban
safety. Contribution of ICUS was
found to be unique and noteworthy
despite its limited resources, with 425
peer-reviewed journal papers, 53
books, 486 international conference
papers, 832 domestic conference
papers, 26 reconnaissance reports
and other 396 publications. Also,
ICUS activities were in television,
newspapers and other media 425
times, ICUS faculty gave invitational
lectures 390 times and 65 awards
have been received till now for
research findings by the ICUS facultyincluding their students. Reviewers
admired the center’s international
activities- MOUs with domestic andoverseas organizations, holding ofinternational symposiums, exchangeof researchers and publication ofinternational activity reports. Theyevaluated that, these activities
not only contribute to technology
transfer and advanced research,
but also build up experiences

ICUS reports exhibited at the venue
with different technologies to put
these into practical application indeveloping countries. They found
ICUS research findings have beenused practically in the society andhave contributed significantly inenhancing urban safety of cities.
The reviewers suggested that,though visiting professors andresearchers are making up for thelimited human resources in ICUS
as far as possible, more utilizationof graduate students and foreign
students in its activities is necessaryasimplementationofsuchdiversified and energetic activities
with inadequate manpower isdifficult.
Also, the reviewers suggested
that, strengthening of cooperation
with administrative bodies andaggressive
participationinadministrative activities for ICUS totake a leadership role. Overall, theyfound that, ICUS has achieved its
stated objective and “has achieved
extremely good results.”
On the proposal for a post-ICUS
center, the reviewers suggested
that, future plans should include
organizational cross-cutting researchfor handling “advanced and coretechnologies,” and should include
social science, economics, and public
policy along with natural science andengineering. Also, intra-university
cooperation and increasing of staff
strength is proposed.
ICUS sincerely thanks thedistinguished external reviewers
for conducting an impartial andcritical review of its activities andwill strive to carry on its activities
aggressively using their valuablesuggestions and recommendations.
(By K. Meguro)

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 10

BNUS Activities
BNUS assessed social
vulnerability to earthquakes
The major concern in any disasterrisk mitigation measures falls on
raising awareness level of the local
community. BNUS conducted asocio-economic survey of 200
households in ward No. 68 of theolder part of Dhaka City. The social
vulnerability of individuals due toan earthquake is assessed within thehouseholds. The social vulnerability
indicators have been selected fromthe literature and the relevant dataneeded for the analysis are collected
through house to house socioeconomic questionnaire survey.
Information regarding the level of
public awareness about earthquake
risk of the community was foundthrough this survey. The sample
size of survey is carefully chosen
at random basis at 95% confidence
level to give a clear view of thewhole community. Vulnerabilityof the community is assessedconsidering the existing socioeconomic condition of the locality.
From the study, it was found that
almost 96% literate respondents
have earthquake awareness. Also,
the literacy rate is more in the agegroup of 15-29 and 30-44 years
and they are more aware about
earthquakes than the people ofother age groups. The age group15-29 years is more aware about
earthquake because most of them
are students. The 30-44 age groupis basically engaged in different
professions. Professional groups
keep themselves informed with day
to day information received throughprofessional activities and so they
have more experience than others.
They also interact with various
groups of people which help them togather information and knowledge.
Age group of 0-14 years consists
mainly of school going kids andbecause very few of this group areaware of earthquakes, the number
aware members is roughly equal tonumber of unaware members in thisgroup.
The household heads are importantas they make key decisions in a
family. In Bangladesh, mostly themale is the head of any family. It is

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

0

20

40

60

80 100Reasons behind earthquake vulnerability to community
clear from the survey that, most of thehousehold heads are businessmen in
the study area and most of them areaware of earthquakes.
From the study it was found that,
overall most of the respondents (74%
respondents) in the study area areaware about earthquake. Also, in the
study area, most of the respondents(about 75%) think their community
to be exposed to earthquake
vulnerability. The respondents
considered a range of factors fortheir earthquake vulnerability as
shown in the figure above.
BNUS conducted seismic
microzonation of Cox’s Bazar
Municipal Area
Cox’s Bazar is in the Southeasternpart of Bangladesh, and is acoastal tourist resort. Due to rapid
urbanization in past decades, often inDistribution of seismic hazard
in Cox’s Bazar Areaan unregulated manner and without
seismic design consideration ofbuildings, seismic microzonationis needed for formulating effective
earthquake mitigation measures.
Also, common occurrences oflandslide and related casualties
in the hilly parts of city haveincreased the necessity of it. BNUS
conducted a seismic microzonation
study using geographic information
system, where reflection of groundshaking and the site attributes ofsoil amplification, liquefaction andlandslide are the salient features.
The probable earthquake hazard,
expected ground motion andliquefaction potential were assessedusing probabilistic approach. The
study found that, the rock level PeakGround Acceleration (PGA) of thearea is 0.18g for a 7.5 magnitude
earthquake having a return period of
200 years. The surface PGA could
be as high as 0.41g for an average
2.3 times amplification factor. Due
to ground shaking amplified by 2,
2.5 and 3 times, respectively 47%,
42% and 11% of the municipal area
could be affected. About 87% of thestudy area is highly susceptible toliquefaction. Approximately 8% of
the municipality consists of hilly
region and 97% of it is found to bevery unsafe from the viewpoint of
natural slope stability.
(By M. A. Ansary, BNUS)

Page 11

RNUS held the 2nd Joint Student Seminar on Civil Infrastructures

Student seminar participants
RNUS jointly organized the 2nd
Joint Student Seminar on Civil
Infrastructure on July 6th, 2009 at
AIT Conference Center together
with Korean and Thai partners. Thisseminar is aimed at encouraging
students to have an international
experiencesuchasmakingpresentations, exchanging opinions
and developing good relationshipwith foreign partners.
We had 34 participants, consistingof faculties and students from Korea
University, Chonnam University,
Seoul National University, Suranaree
University of Technology, Asian
Institute of Technology, Khulna
University of Engineering &Technology and The University ofTokyo. There were 4 faculty lecturesand 18 student presentations in thisseminar. The topics were varied fromall areas of civil engineering andall students did their best in theirown presentation as well as in thediscussion. At the end of the seminar,
excellent presentation awards were
given to 3 students who were selectedby votes from all the participants.
On the next day, a field visit washeld to see public transportation
facilities in Bangkok City. Bangkok isfamous for its traffic congestion andthere are several ongoing projects
to improve the public transportation
system. The participants visited 2
construction sites of current public
transportation projects, that is,
City Air Terminal of Suvarnabhumi
Airport Rail Link (SARL) and Bus

A moment from the Seminar
Rapid Transit (BRT) station. To
visit the sites, they experienced
various transportation systems on
the way, such as MRT (subway), BTS(skytrain), taxi, bus, tuktuk and boat,
which were also very impressive forthem.
The student participants playeda major role by discussing theirresearch topics and communicatingwith students from other countries.
The seminar was successful andfruitful similar to the one last year.
We believe this seminar gave not only
knowledge and information but also
a lot of other stimuli to the students.
ICUS hopes to continue to hold thiskind of interchange activities also in
coming years.
(By S. Tanaka)

ICUS Activities• Prof. H. Sawada visited Bangkok,
Thailand from July 5 to 8, to coordinate and participate in the Joint
International Student Seminar on
Civil Infrastructure. He visitedSão Paulo and Manaus in Brazil
from August 5 to 16 to investigate
on changes in carbon budget in
Brazilian Amazon. From September
5 to 11, he visited Helsinki andJoensu in Finland to participate
in and make a presentation at the
Finnish-Japanese Seminar.
• Assoc. Prof. M. Koshihara visited

Shizuoka Prefecture on September
26 to do a follow-up survey on
Suruga Bay Earthquake.
• Assoc. Prof. R. Kuwano visited
Alexandria, Egypt from September
30 to October 9 to attend and make apresentation at the 17th International
Conference on Soil Mechanics andGeotechnical Engineering.
• Assoc. Prof. H. Huang visited
Beijing, China from July 11 to 20
to conduct research and discusscollaboration between ICUS andTsinghua University, Beijing, China.

• Dr. S. Tanaka visited Bangkok,
Thailand from July 5 to 12 toorganize, make a presentationand chair a session at the Joint
International Student Seminaron Civil Infrastructure at AIT,
Bangkok.
• Dr. M. Numada visited Bangkok,
Thailand from July 5 to 9 to make apresentation & chair a session at the
Joint International Student Seminaron Civil Infrastructure at AIT.

AwardsGraduate student Mr. K. Sakuraiof Meguro Lab. received Excellent
Young Researcher Award at
USMCA2009, Incheon, Korea.
Three graduate students of Kuwanolab. won best paper and presentation
awards by Japanese Society of Civil
Engineers (JSCE). They were, Mr. N.
Hosoo (at JSCE Annual Meeting inFukuoka), Mr. A.L. Beltran-Galvis

and Mr. B.P.D. Cokorado (bothat JSCE International Summer
Symposium on Sep. 11 in Tokyo).

ICUS Newsletter Vol.9, No.2

Page 12
Editor’s Note
While we edited an article on theWest Java Earthquake, news on
another big earthquake in Indonesia
on September 30 surprised us. It
occurred in Padang, West Sumatra
Province in Indonesia and its
magnitude was 7.6. According to
UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA),
about 115,000 houses were severely
damaged due to this earthquake. We
sincerely extend our condolences tothe victims and affected people dueto this tragic earthquake and hopeprompt restoration in the sufferedarea.

The main article of this volume
was written by Dr. Christina
Magill in Macquarie University,
Sydney, Australia. She spent twomonths in our research center in2007. Her visit was as a part of a
joint research project with Tokyo
Marine & Nichido risk consulting
Co. Ltd. on analysis of volcanic
risk in Tokyo. During her stay, she
conducted site visits and collected
data for modeling reported in thisnewsletter. ICUS members were very
happy to share precious experience
with her and hope for continuous
collaboration.
During October 15-16, the 8thInternational Symposium on New

Technologies for Urban Safety ofMega Cities in Asia was successfully
held in Incheon, Korea. National
Institute for Disaster Prevention(NIDP),
DisasterPrevention
Association (KDPA) and Korean
Society of Hazard Mitigation(KOSHAM) in Korea jointly
organized it with ICUS. ICUS
expresses gratitude from the bottomof our heart to the presenters,
participants and all the people who
were involved in this symposium.
Next symposium will be held inJapan on October 2010.
(M. Ohara)

If you would like to contribute an article to ICUS newsletter or have any comments or suggestions,please contact the editorial committee at icus@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp. Any article within the scope of urban
safety engineering and management will be considered for publication after internal peer review by
the editorial committee. To know the scope of ICUS activities, please visit ICUS homepage at http://
icus.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

International Center for Urban Safety Engineering, ICUS
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
Tel: (+81-3)5452-6472, Fax: (+81-3)5452-6476
http://icus.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

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