The IAJ members won the prizes for outstanding papers at ICA2023
June 16, 2023
■ Prizes
Two IAJ members, who submitted papers at ICA2023, won prizes in two out of nine
categories.
As an academic organization, IAJ has been working to enhance education and researchso that many of its members will be able to present papers in preparation for theICA2026 in Tokyo, and we hope that these prizes will help build momentum toward
this effort.
Prize Categories
Health/IAAHS

Name of prize Winners
Akio Yamaki(Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)

Investment, Wealth, Finance andNaoki SunamotoBanking(Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance)■ ICAICA (International Congress of Actuaries) is an international Congress ofactuaries held every three years (previously every four years). The ICA includes
the presentation of papers by actuaries around the world, as well as a lively
exchange of ideas on interesting topics.
For the first time in 50 years, the ICA will be held in Tokyo, on November 8-13,2026.
■ Prize categories for outstanding papers at ICA2023
Prizes given at ICA2023 were the following nine categories. Nine actuaries fromseven countries (including two from Japan) received prizes.
・Best Researcher/s Under the Age of 35
・Actuarial Consulting/IACA
・General Insurance/Non-Life/P&C/ASTIN
・Life/IAALS・AFIR/ERM/Risk Management
・Health/IAAHS
・Pensions and Social Security/Super/PBSS

・Investment, Wealth, Finance and Banking
・Professionalism, Ethics and Actuarial Education(Presentation of ICA2023 in Sydney)

https://www.actuaries.asn.au/microsites/ica2023/program/prizes

(Reference) Abstracts of both authors' papers
AuthorAkio Yamaki
Akio Yamaki is Special Officer for Health Expenditure Analysis atActuarial Research Division, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,Government of Japan. His current work includes analysis of healthexpenditure of Japan, along with research on health system and its
analysis outside Japan. His previous work includes research onsocial security systems around the world including pensions andunemployment insurances, which he still has interest.

Title

New normal after COVID-19 - Observations on Medical Care Expenditure inJapan

Summary

COVID-19 made a significant impact on medical care. How people’s behavior interms of visiting medical institutions and medical providers’ behavior in providing
care have changed are of great interest. We analyzed impact of the COVID-19
pandemic to Japan’s health systems as Japan’s system is different from healthsystems used by previous studies. We analyzed the impacts and considered theirbackgrounds of how the effects on Japan’s medical care have changed since theearly months of COVID-19 pandemic, using MEDIAS, the database composed of
all individual medical fee claim data of Japan’s public health insurance system.
We analyzed these data by decomposing into total days treated and medical
expenditure per day in order to analyze the effects of COVID-19 more closely.
We also analyzed these data by estimating average days stayed and the numberof new admissions for inpatients. Our analysis shows while total medical
expenditure has resumed from the sharp decline observed in the early months of
COVID-19 pandemic, change in detailed data such as decrease in total days
treated and increase in medical expenditure per day are still observed in very
recent data, which suggests that this trend has taken root.

AuthorNaoki Sunamoto
Naoki Sunamoto is a Board member of Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Company,in charge of the ERM Department and the financial Reporting and Actuarial
Department. He is also a Board Member of the Institute of Actuaries of Japan,
the Chairman of the Investment Theory Committee of the IAJ and Fellow of theIAJ, Chartered Member of the Securities Analysts Association of Japan, andCertified International Investment Analyst. He is a Bord member of AFIR-ERM
section of IAA.

Title

A Study on Regime Shift in Stock Market during the Pandemic

Summary

The global economy exhibited strong resilience against the COVID-19 pandemic
and recovered faster than the general forecast. The Japanese economy also fully
recovered within a year following the onset of the pandemic. Japanese life insurers
have historically struggled with the impacts of a prolonged low interest-rateenvironment. It necessitated increased risk-taking via equity investment toachieve sufficient earnings to cover guaranteed interest rates in liabilities. As aresult, they faced a significant decline in unrealised capital gains due to market
falls at the onset of the pandemic. However, backed by a strong capital base,
many life insurers could maintain their strategic asset allocation and were notforced sellers of assets. Fortunately, the stock market soon recovered before
severe losses crystallised. This paper has three main sections: - First, we review
the impact of the pandemic’s onset on global stock markets. We study thebehaviour of volatility indices VIX, NKvi, VSTOXX, and we examine the stockindex changes of S&P, TOPIX, STOXX, looking at 30-day moving statistics.
Finally, we identify four typical regimes for the studied indices: Turmoil,Bottoming, Recovery and Stability. - Secondly, we examine the behaviour of theJapanese stock market in some detail. Following a comprehensive review of themarket’s composition, we focus on selected leading sectors. We group these
sectors into four categories characterised by their different resistance andrecovery attributes. - Third, we present a case study wherein we show that acombination of a collar hedging strategy and simple portfolio sector reallocationof strategic stock holdings can achieve an enhanced risk-return profile throughimproved diversification properties. And in our conclusion, we note that examining
past market behaviour throughout the crisis provides valuable insight for informing
insurers’ actions in the next pandemic.