Balancing NPIs and economic activities

FEBRUARY 14, 2022

TAISUKE NAKATA (UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO)

OVERVIEW
 The project began in December 2020
 Taisuke Nakata
 Monetary policy, time-series analysis, experience with policy analysis in central bank

 Daisuke Fujii
 International trade, firm dynamics and network 4 collaborators plus about 20 research assistants
 Funded by the Cabinet Office AI-Simulation Project, RISTEX, TCER, and Kakenhi, among others.

 The main aim is to provide policymakers and the public with policy analyses related to how to balance

NPIs and economy activity.
 The secondary aim is to provide policymakers and the public with policy analysis related to dynamicsof COVID-19.

2

EXAMPLES
 Infection control and economyDevelopment of a macro-SIR model that can be flexibly used for policy analysis in real-time.
Macro SIR models: Eichenbaum et al. (2020), Alvarez et al. (2020), Jones et al (2020), Kubota et al. (2020), Kubota (2021).

A weekly outlook on COVID-19 in Tokyo.

Development of monthly state-level GDP

Analysis of the timing of the state-of-emergency (SOE)Analysis of exit strategies

Analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on marriage, birth, and suicides

 Infection control


Vaccine allocations



Effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on infection

Factors contributing to the rapid decline in infection in Tokyo, Summer 2021



Daily update of the estimate of the ratio of severe cases and death to PCR positives

Developing a projection tool for cases and ICU beds for Japanese prefectures and municipalities

3

SELECT POLICY BRIEFINGSThe Subcommittee on Novel Coronavirus Disease Control, and the Advisory Committee on the Basic Action PolicyFebruary 10



The Advisory Board on COVID-19 for the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (March 31, June 2, June 16, June 30, November 9)Tokyo Governor’s Office (April 7)

Prime Minister’s Office (May 8, June 22)Round-table Meeting with Experts by the Tokyo Organizing Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic GamesMay 28, June 17, August 20

Council of Ministers (June 30)

Frequent requests for simulation analysis by the members of the Subcommittee and the Office for COVID-19 and OtherEmerging Infectious Disease Control (Cabinet Secretariat)
“Recommendations about COVID-19 risks related to holding the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games” by A Voluntary IndependentGroup of Experts for COVID-19 Response in Japan.

Currently working on developing a projection tool for cases and ICU beds for Japanese prefectures and municipalities.

4

COMMUNICATION WITH PUBLIC Our analysis as well as our unique communication style have led to media attention as well.
 Within Japan
 Frequent citations by newspapers and TVs
 Frequent seminars and speeches at various institutions.
 Occasional appearance on radios and TVs

 Outside Japan Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, USA Today, ESPN, ABC News, BBC, The

Globe and Mail
 https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/media.html

5

KEY TAKEAWAYS
 1. In a standard macro-SIR model, there may not be tradeoff between infection control and economy inthe long-run.
 2. If you want to think about how to balance NPIs and economy, you need to first know what’s

happening in the economy (or society in general).
We have analyzed output, suicides, marriage, and birth

Others have worked on the cost of NPIs on education, health, etc.

 3. The optimal “balancing” depends on the objective function (or “value judgment”)
Fujii et al. “Value of a COVID-19 Death”

6KEY TAKEAWAY 1
 1. In a standard macro-SIR model, there may not be a tradeoff between infection control and economy

in the long-run.
 In two completely different ways…
 A. Before vaccination, and taking as given the medical resource constraint, continuing the state-of-emergency(SOE) until the number of new cases is very low can lead to lower cumulative deaths without increasing
economic loss.
 Fujii and Nakata “COVID-19 and Output in Japan” (2021)
 “Buy time until vaccination arrives.” “The good infection control is also a good economic policy”

 B. After vaccination, expanding the medical resource constraint can lead to smaller economic loss without

necessarily increasing the cumulative deaths in the long-run.
 Nakata et al. “Balancing NPIs and economic activities: The Role of Medical Capacity” (2022)
 Slowing down infection in the short-run has an aspect of “postponing the attainment of herd immunity.” Thus, a short-run reduction in the number of deaths does not necessarily lead to a long-run reduction in the number of deaths.

7

REFERENCES
 Weekly outlook：https://Covid19OutputJapan.github.io/JP/
 Reports：https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html
 Videos of weekly Zoom meetings：https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/recording.html
 Behind-the-scene interview
https://note.com/keisemi/n/n9d8f9c9b72af、https://note.com/keisemi/n/n7f38099d0fa2



https://note.com/keisemi/n/nd1a6da98f00e 、https://note.com/keisemi/n/n430f8178c663

 Paper：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs42973-021-00098-4
 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NakataTaisuke Questions and requests, etc.
taisuke.nakata@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp8