APRU Multi-Hazard (MH) Summer School 2020

Urban Disaster Risk Reduction:
Japan as a disaster-prone country andlearning from past disasters
International Strategy for Disaster Mitigation Lab.
International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS)
Tohoku University, Japan

Osamu MURAOContents
1.
2.
3.

How do you evaluate urban disaster risk?
Disaster Life Cycle
Japan as a Disaster-prone Country and Learningfrom the Past Disasters

1

How do you evaluate urban
disaster risk?

The mechanism of disaster occurence

Input

SystemOutput
DamagedHazardOrNot

The mechanism of disaster occurrence

Input

SystemOutputDamagedOrHazard

Not自然の脅威
Threat from the Nature
・地震 Earthquake
・津波 Tsunami
・豪雨 Heavy Rain
・台風 Typhoon
・出火 Outbreak of Fire

受ける社会の特性（構造・組織ほか）
社会システム／地域特性
・自然環境特性・社会環境特性・時間的要因Characteristics (Social, Physical, and Temporal)

出現する現象Appeared Phenomena
・物理的 Physical・社会的 Social

Definition of Urban Disaster Risk

Urban Disaster Risk
= Hazard * Vulnerability * Exposed Value

HazardA dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition
that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property
damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage.

Vulnerability

The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset
that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.

Exposure
People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard
zones that are thereby subject to potential losses.

Photo: O. Murao

https://www.ih-osaka.or.jp/english/2020/04/01/coronavirus/

Definition of Urban Disaster Risk

Urban Disaster Risk
= Hazard * Vulnerability * Exposed Value

Hazard and Vulnerability

Meguro and Murao: Comprehensive Disaster Management of Regions and Cities (2016)

Hazard and Vulnerability

Meguro and Murao: Comprehensive Disaster Management of Regions and Cities (2016)

2Disaster Life CycleDisaster Life Cycle
DisasterPrediction & Early
Warning

DamageAssessment

Response
Mitigatio
nRecovery(Reconstruction)
Preparedness

Information &Communication
Meguro and Murao: Comprehensive Disaster Management of Regions and Cities (2016)

Q: What is mitigation and preparedness?

Hazard and Vulnerability
HazardとVulnerability
ハザードとバルネラビリティ

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reservedStructural Mitigation
Structural Mitigation
構造物による被害抑止

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Landuse Mitigation
Land Use Mitigation
土地利用規制による被害抑止

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reservedStructural and Landuse Mitigation
Structural & Land Use Mitigation
構造物と土地利用規制による被害抑止

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Mitigationn Activities aimed at eliminating or reducing theoccurrence of a disaster and reducing the effects ofunavoidable disasters.
n Measures that will reduce the potential for damage
to a facility or structure from a disaster event.
(FEMA)

Preparedness
Preparedness
被害軽減のための事前準備

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Preparednessn Activities taken to help save lives and minimize

damage by preparing people to respond
appropriately when an emergency is imminent.
Preparedness includes planning to respond whenan emergency or disaster occurs and working toincreases available to respond effectively.
(FEMA)

DisasterDisaster
災 害

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Response
Response
災害対応

Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Responsen Activities occurring during or immediately

following a disaster designed to provide
emergency assistance to the victims of the event,reduce the likelihood of secondary damage and toexpedite recovery operations.
(FEMA)

Recovery
Recovery
復 旧・復 興Copyright © GK Kyoto All right reserved

Recoveryn Activities traditionally associated with providing

Federal supplemental disaster recovery assistanceunder a disaster declaration. Recovery includes
individual and public assistance programs thatprovide temporary housing assistance, grants, andloans to eligible individuals and government
entities to recover from the effects of a disaster.
(FEMA)

Build Back Better （より良い復興）
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction（仙台防災枠組），2015

Sendai Frameworkfor Disaster Risk Reduction2015 - 2030

Photo: O. Murao
1

3

Japan as a Disaster-prone Countryand Learning from the Past
Disasters

Hazard: World Earthquake Map

Vulnerability: Wooden House Congested Districts

Photo: O. Murao

Japanese Traditional House Made of Wood and Paper

Photo: O. Murao

Exposed Value: High Population Density

Photo: O. Murao

1657 Meireki Great Fire in Edo Period (Old Tokyo)
1657

1872

1923

1945

1976 1986 1995

Edo Tokyo MuseumPublic Open Space in Ryogoku to Prevent Fire Spread

Edo Tokyo Museum

Walls to Prevent Fire Spread in Waki, Tokushima
Udatsu卯建（うだつ）
うだつがあがらない

Photo: O. Murao

Warehouses with Tiled Roof in Kawagoe, Saitama

Photo: O. Murao

Great Tokyo Earthquake
1657

1872

1923

1945

1976 1986 1995

11:58am
September 1, 1923
Death Toll: 99,331

University of Tokyo
Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Tokyo Memorial Hall

Master Plan（1921）

Post-Earthquake Recovery
Master Plan（1924-30）

1. Urban Structure Readjustment

Showa Avenue

Recovery Parks

Mainichi Daily News

Sumida Park (the First Water Front Park)AFO

Yamashita Waterfront Park (Yokohama)

Mainichi Daily News

Providing Modern Apartments (Doujunkai)

Photo: O. Murao

Sakata Fire (Yamagata)
1657

1872

1923

1945

1976 1986 1995Sakata City

Aftermath of the Fire

Sakata City

Street Design to Prevent Fire Spreading

Fire-Proof Buildings
Fire in Wooden House
Congested Districts
Maximum Height of Fire: 30m

Prevent Fire SpreadingStreetRiverRailway≥45m

Present Hakodate City with Green Belt
NetworkPhoto: O. Murao

Designated Evacuation Open Space in Tokyo

Timeline of Critical Disastrous Events

Great Fires in Old Tokyo
17,18CWorld War II

SakataFire

Great Kobe
Earthquake

1945

1976

1995

1872

1923

1986

Ginza Fire

Great Tokyo Earthquake

Disaster Prevention BaseIn Eastern Tokyo

WCDR 2005 at Hyogo

UNISDR establishedwith the progress of society'scapabilities to address disasters and themitigation of vulnerabilities to disasters
by• developing disaster management
systems,• promoting national land conservation,• improving weather forecasting
technologies,• and upgrading disaster information
communications systems

WCNDR 1994 at Yokohama

Number of Deaths and Missing Persons in Disasters

IDNDR

Disaster Management in Japan (CAO, 2011)

March 11, 2011
The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami(Death Toll/Missing: 22,010 as of March 2016)

Comparison of post-disaster recovery processes from the 1999 Chi-Chi
Earthquake, the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, and the 2011 Great East
Japan Earthquake and Tsunami using probability density functions
0.30

13.9

0.25

37.4

Probability Density

Sri Lanka (2004)
(8.2)

0.20
0.15

Chi-ChiRebuild (1999)(22.1)

0.10

Thailand (2004)(14.0)

Chi-ChiIndonesia (2004) New (1999)(28.8)(46.9) Miyagi (2011)
Iwate (2011)(59.5)(63.7)
Fukushima (2011)(65.3)

0.05
0.00
01224

364860Time Period (Months)

7284

96

108120Importance of Learning from Past Disasters

Anticipated Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes

Japan Meteorological Agency

Urban Disaster Risk Reduction
Japan as a disaster-prone country and learningfrom past disasters