2010 Presidents’ Forum2010年主席论坛

Vice President, CITA
中国工程机械协会工业车辆分会 副理事长Chairman, Anhui Heli Forklift Truck Group Co.,Ltd.
安徽叉车集团有限责任公司董事长

Zhang Dejin 张德进Oct 2010, Istanbul
2010年10月，伊斯坦布尔Dear distinguished Presidents, Ladies and Gentlemen
尊敬的主席先生们，女士们、先生们：

Today we are glad to be present at FEM 2010 Congress on behalf of CITA.
Getting together with all friends in this beautiful city - Istanbul, to share theinformation of macro-economic situation and the development of material
handling industry, and also looking forward to the future of the industrial trucktechnology and market in the year 2025.
今天非常高兴代表中国工程机械工业协会工业车辆分会参加欧洲工业车辆协会
年会，与新老朋友相聚在美丽的伊斯坦布尔，与各位共同分享一些宏观经济形势和工业车辆行业发展的信息，并且还有一个很大胆的话题，那就是与大家共同展望2025年的工业车辆技术和市场。

I. China’s Macro-economic Situation
中国宏观经济形势分析
II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market中国工业车辆发展状况III. Industrial Truck Market in the year 2025
2025年的工业车辆

I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
Based on our analysis of the international economic environment, the economic slowdown
substantially effected the global financial crisis. The global GDP showed a negative growth in2009 and start a slow-moving recovery in 2010.
从国际经济环境来分析，全球经历金融危机后，经济大幅下滑，2009年全球GDP出现负增长，2010年开始缓慢复苏。
单位：%65

5.1

4.9

4.8

5.2

4.5
44
3.7

3.6

3.6

3.3
33

2.9
2.6
2.3

2

10
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

-1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Data Source: IMF

From year 2008 to 2009, the global economy sank into
the most serious decline since world war two

数据来源：IMF国际货币基金组织

2008-2009年，全球经济陷入了自二战以来最严重的一次衰退

2009-0.6

I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
In 2009, the growth of China’s economy droped to a very low point. However, under thecomprehensive effect of the economy stimulation package introduced by the Chinese Govt, thegrowth of GDP climbed to 11.1% in the first half year of 2010.
2009年，中国经济增长到低点。在中国中央政府一揽子经济刺激政策的综合效用下，到2010年上半年，GDP增长恢复到11.1%。

GrowthGrowth ofof GDPGDP inin China中国GDP增长情况China中国GDP增长情况units % 14单位：%

13.3

13
12
11.2

11
10.6
10.2

109

11.9

11.8

9.6

9.3

10.4
9.6

9.5

8.7

8.6
8

8.1

7.9
7.3

765
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

200520062007

2008

Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 数据来源：中国国家统计局

2009

2010Q1

I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
From 2005 to the first half year of 2010, the investment in fixed asset in Chinese urban areas
increased 25%, while the overall rate of increase slowed down. The Chinese government istrying to seize the opportunity of transforming the economic growth in investment-driven mode.
2005-2010年上半年，中国城镇固定资产投资保持在25%以上增长，但增长幅度有所放缓。中国
中央政府正在抓紧调整投资拉动型的经济增长模式。
100 Million RMB

2010 H1
The investment in fixed asset inChinese urban areasGrowth Rate %I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
In August 2010, the PMI (Purchase Management Index) of the manufacture industry in
China rose to 51.7%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the prior month.
After declining for 3 months, the index make positive progress in this month, rising above
the critical point of 50%. It indicates that the overall economy development trend of themanufacturing industry in China is rising.
2010年8月,中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为51.7%,高于上月0.5个百分点。该指数连续三个月回落后,本月有所回升,并持续位于临界点50%以上,表明中国制造业经济总体仍呈现增长态势。
Purchase Management Index –PMI %50%=no change comparing with last monthAug2009

SepOctNovDecJan2010

FebMarAprMay

JuneJulyAugI. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
China’s economy has made a rapid recovery after the financial crisis. The main
reason includes 金融危机后中国经济快速复苏的主要原因
The proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy implemented by the Chinese
government;
中央政府实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；
Leverage effects such as 4 trillion investment, and especially the infrastructural construction, postdisaster reconstruction, civil engineering, etc., all of which have effectively stimulated the market
demand.
4万亿投资，特别是基础设施建设、灾后重建、民生工程等的杠杆作用，有效地刺激了市场需求。
The central government advocates “adjusting the structure, transforming the mode”, takes fullconsideration of the effect of “investment + consumption + export” on economic growth, andspeeds up the economic transition.
中央政府倡导“调整结构、转变方式”，统筹“投资+消费+出口”对经济增长的作用，加快经济转型。
Three Changes三个转变：Export Driven
出口驱动

Domestic Demand Driven
内需驱动Investment Driven
投资驱动Consumption Driven
消费驱动Resource Driven
资源驱动Technology Driven
技术驱动I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析
Industrial & Regional Revitalization Planning 中国中央政府的产业和区域政策规划
Since 2009, the State Council has published Ten Industrial Revitalization Plans, among which is therevitalization plans for equipment manufacturing industry and logistics industry that aims to accelerate themarket growth and the development of the industrial truck market. 2009年以来，国务院密集出台十大产业调整振兴规划，其中对装备制造业、物流业的振兴计划会促进经济增长和工业车辆发展。
Many regional revitalization plans have been published subsequently, this includes: the development of theWest Regions, the old industrial base of the Northeast China, the rise of Central China and the economic
regions on the two sides of Taiwan Straits. 并相继出台了西部大开发、东北老工业基地、中部崛起、海峡两岸经济区等多个区域振兴规划。
Time 时间

Ten Industrial Revitalization Planning 内容

Feb 25, 2009 2009年2月25日

Automotive Industry《汽车业振兴规划》

Feb 25, 2009 2009年2月25日

Steal Industry《钢铁业振兴规划》

Feb 19, 2009 2009年2月19日

Textile Industry《纺织业振兴规划》

Feb 19, 2009 2009年2月19日

Equipment Manufacturing Industry《装备制造业振兴规划》

Feb 18, 2009 2009年2月18日

Shipbuilding Industry《船舶工业调整振兴规划》

Feb 11, 2009 2009年2月11日

Electronic Information Industry《电子信息产业振兴规划》

Feb 4, 2009 2009年2月4日

Petrochemical Industry《石化业振兴规划》

Feb 4, 2009 2009年2月4日

Light Industry《轻工业振兴规划》

Jan 11, 2009 2009年1月11日Non-ferrous metals industry《有色金属业振兴规划》

Jan 11, 2009 2009年1月11日

Logistics Industry《物流业振兴规划》

I. China’s Macro-economic Situation中国宏观经济形势分析

Challenges 面临的挑战
1. It’s still a bumpy progress to achieve a comprehensive, continuous and healthy growthof the global economy (due to sovereign debt crisis, trade protection, and politicalinstability, etc.) 全球经济全面、持续、健康增长历程仍然坎坷；（主权债务危机、贸易保护、政局波动等）2. The global trade is influenced by major currencies fluctuation and process. 主要货币波动幅度和进程影响全球贸易；
3. The healthy development of the downstream is influenced by the pricing andfluctuation of some factors such as a large amount of raw resource, labor cost, etc. 大宗
原材料、人力成本等要素价格供给与波动影响下游产业健康发展；
4. The new growth point of the global economy is not available at present. 全球经济新的增长点尚不具备。

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况
The material handling industry is greatly affected by the financial crisis in 2008. During theperiod, the domestic and overseas demands have shrunk, which caused a sharp
decrease of the sales volume.
2008年金融危机之后，工业车辆行业受影响明显，国内外需求萎缩，销量大幅下滑。
Sales of Industrial Trucks in Global Market

Sales of Industrial Trucks per Continent (2008-2009)

全球工业车辆销量情况

08-09世界工业车辆市场各大洲销量

Units 台1000000

20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%

80000060000040000020000002007

2008

叉车销量Sales Units

2009

5000004000003000002000001000000
欧洲增长率Growth Rate

美洲

亚洲

2008
Europe America

Data Source: CITA资料来源：中国工程机械行业协会工业车辆分会

Asia

非洲

大洋洲

2009
AfricaOceaniaII. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况Sales Situation for Domestic Manufacturers
中国机动工业车辆境内生产企业销量情况18

万台 10,000 units

50%

161440%30%

1220%

10810%
0%642-10%

0-30%-20%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

叉车总销量同比增速Sales units

Growth rate

2008

2009

The Chinese market has kept a rapid growth of around 30% since 2001. The overall sales volume
reached more than 160,000 units at the end of 2008, however negative growth shown due to the great
impact of the financial crisis in 2009, when the domestic market fell to138,000 . 中国市场从2001年开始
连续保持高速增长，增速保持在30%左右，到2008年总销量超过16万台，但在2009年受金融危机影响
明显，出现负增长，降至13.8万台。
Data Source: CITA 资料来源：中国工程机械行业协会工业车辆分会

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况In the first half year of 2010, the sales volume of the industrial trucks for domestic
manufacturers increased sharply. Positive potentials emerged in the whole industry.
2010年上半年，中国机动工业车辆境内生产企业销量重新出现爆发式增长，全行业展现出很
好的发展潜力。
Sales and Growth Rate of China Industrial Truck Market in 2010 H1
2010年上半年中国机动工业车辆销量和增长率Units 台

25000
20000
15000

22774

140%

22543

21050

118%

112%

108%

103%

20052

120%
100%

14261
10532
8585

10000

11226

10361

10100

12418

80%

61.5%

60%

6723

40%

5000

20%

22.7%

00%
1月

2月

3月

4月

5月

6月

JanFebMarAprMayJune

2010年

2009年

增长率Data Source: CITA 资料来源：中国工程机械行业协会工业车辆分会

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况Quarterly Sales Situation in China Market (2009-2010 H1)
2009年—2010年上半年中国市场季度销售量
60,000台 Units

53,68450,00040,95240,00030,00020,00027,535

33,11934,007

20,303

10,0002009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

二季度

2010
年
一季度

四季度

三季度

二季度

2009
年
一季度

0

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

From 2009 to Jun2010, the quarterly sales volume of industrial trucks in theChina market grew stage by stage.
2009年-2010年6月，中国市场机动工业车辆产品季度销售量呈现阶梯式增长

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况The Proportion of Electric Trucks vs. IC-CB in China Market (2006-2010)2006-2010年中国市场电动叉车与内燃叉车的比例
Electric Trucks accounts for 60% out of
total sales in global market
全球电动车销量占比接近60%
1000000

Units 台80%

90000070%

80000060%70000060000050%50000040%

40000030%30000020%20000010%

100000
00%
2006

2007

2008

2009

The sales ofElectric Trucks
take only 20%
全球电动销量占全球叉车比例share in Chinese market 中国电动车销量占比仅为20%台
30000

It shows clearly from the chart that, the IC-CB trucks are theleading product in the Chinese market. In many developed
countries, the MS of the electric forklift truck is 40% - 50%,
which indicates that electric forklift truck remains a great
potential in Chinese market. 从图中可以清楚地看出，长期以来内燃叉车一直是中国工业车辆销售市场的主导产品。和国
际先进国家电动叉车占40%--65%相比,应该说中国电动叉车还有很大的发展空间。
The demands for low-carbon and environment
protection becomes the main factors for the future
development of electric trucks.对低碳、环保的要求，是促使电动叉车未来发展的直接因素。
IC-CB Truck sales & proportion in China
Market (incl. export) 中国内燃叉车销量（含出口）及占比
台

30%

25000
20000

20%

15000
10%

10000
50000%02006

2007电动销量2008

2009占叉车销量比例

Sales of Electric Trucks% out of total sales

ICCB Sales in China% out of TT China Sales% out of TT Sales of World Market

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况In the first half year of 2010, the total logistics cost reached 3.0902 trillion, which is 17.8% more thanthat in the previous year. The proportion of the total cost of social logistics to GDP is 17.9%, which ismuch higher than that in some developed countries (10%). 2010年上半年，社会物流总费用为30902亿
元，同比增长17.8%；社会物流总费用与GDP的比率为17.9%，远高出发达国家约10%的比例。
The proportion of the total cost of social logistics toGDP in 2010 H1

The value of the total cost of social logistics and its
proportion to GDP (Year 2005-2009)2005-2009年中国社会物流费用及占GDP比例
70000
万亿

20.00%

2010年上半年与发达国家的比较
50%

18.00%

60000

16.00%

50000

40%

17.9%

30%

社会物流费
用占GDP比值, 17.9%

14.00%

40000

12.00%

30000

10.00%
8.00%

20000

6.00%

20%

10.0%
社会物流费
用占GDP比值, 10.0%

10%

4.00%

10000

2.00%

00%

0.00%
2005

Total Logistics Cost2006

2007

社会物流费用

2008

2009

中国

发达国家China

Developed Countries

占GDP比例 % out of GDP

The sales of forklift truck is highly connected to the total cost of social logistics. Since the logistics cost
takes a high proportion in GDP, with the ever-increasing labor cost and the change in logistics mode,the sales of forklift truck in domestic market will increase steadily in the following years.
叉车销量与社会物流费用总额密切相关，中国物流费用占GDP比例较高，随着劳动力成本的上升，物流方式的改变未来几年，中国国内叉车销量将保持一定速度的增长。
Data Source: CITA资料来源：中国工程机械行业协会工业车辆分会

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况Problems occurred for China’s Forklift Truck Industry
中国工业车辆行业发展存在的问题

1. The gap still remains 差距依然存在The basic components and accessories are backward
基础配套件水平落后

Reasons
差距形成的原因

Lack of core technology, rely highly on the overseas
缺少核心技术，对外依存度高Low ability of sustainable innovation
持续创新能力不强
Mid-Low end market still the major part
用户需求层次总体上不高II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况Problems occurred for China’s Forklift Truck Industry
中国工业车辆行业发展存在的问题The capacity for Forklift Truckproduction has exceeded the market
demand
整个行业的产能已大于市场需求

2. Overcapacity 行业产能过剩Expansion of the existing production capacity
既有产能扩张New investment
新进入者投资

Potential investor 潜在进入者World famous FLT manufacturers
全球著名工业车辆制造商

Fierce competition恶性竞争压力和挑战Domestic Auto or Machinery Manufacturers
国内汽车或工程机械生产商
Non-powered Industrial Truck Providers
手动物料搬运设备制造商

II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况

3. Unreasonable product structure 产品结构不合理Traditional high-end products such as ICCB trucks and ECB trucks are under a severe
product homogeneity situation.
传统优势产品内燃和电动平衡重叉车同质化严重IC-CB Trucks
内燃平衡重式叉车Product Homogeneity
同质化E-CB Trucks
电动平衡重式叉车The development of high value-added and high-tech products are lagging seriouslybehind高附加值和高技术含量的产品发展严重滞后Electric
WH Trucks电动仓储车辆

ContainerTrucks
集装箱堆高机ReachStackers
正面吊Explosion
Proof Trucks
防爆叉车

RoughTerrain Trucks越野叉车Variable
Reach Truck伸缩臂叉车Summary 总结

The development of industrial truck market in China in recent years shows that thedemand for industrial truck from various industries will be further enhanced, by thesteady economic growth in China, as well as infrastructure construction, improvement
in logistics , the development of the western regions and the process of urbanization.
In addition, the application scope and area of the forklift truck use will be developed.
It can be predicted that the industrial truck market in China will steadily increase forthe next 5-10 years. However, taking into account that structural adjustment andindustrial upgrading will accelerate may lead to an even more severe competition.
从中国工业车辆市场近年来的发展看，随着中国经济的稳步发展，基础设施建设、物流发展、西部
开发、城市化进程等等，使得各行各业对工业车辆的需求还将得到进一步增长，叉车应用范围和应
用地区得到不断发展。可以预见，在未来5~10年内，中国工业车辆市场仍将保持一定幅度的增长,但结构调整和产业升级进程将明显加快，竞争将更趋激烈。

III. Industrial Truck Market in the year 2025 2025的工业车辆
It is courageous and interesting to predict thedevelopment of the industrial truck market in2025.
对2025工业车辆进行预测是一个大胆并有非常有意思的话题。
As there are so many uncertainties, it’s difficult topredict the mid to long term development. Mypersonal opinions are as below:
由于不确定因素很多，中长期发展情况是很难想象的，个
人的一些基本判断如下：

Multiple uncertainties不确定因素多
Sovereign Debt Crises, trade protection andbarriers, regional political unrest, monetaryfluctuations, influence of a large amount ofraw resource, economic reconstruction, lackof some other reasons to drive the growth ofthe economy.
主权债务危机、贸易保护和壁垒、区域政局动荡、货币波动、大宗原材料影响、经济结构转型、经济增长的原动力不足等The global integration process will be further accelerated, the industrial concentration
will be even more enhanced, and merger and acquisition as well as in-depth
cooperation will be the future trend.全球化一体化进程将进一步加快，行业集中度将进一步提高，并购重组与深度合作将成为趋势；

The product application consciousness of industrial truck will be improved markedly.
The global volume of industrial truck will also be increased.工业车辆产品的使用意识大幅提升，全球工业车辆的保有量将增长；The industrial truck will adopt the design of sedan, which puts more emphasis on theprotection of the environment ,energy savings, safety and ergonomics.工业车辆产品轿车化，更加注重环保、节能、安全、舒适；The performance and working efficiency of electric vehicles will come close to those ofdiesel vehicles. The electric vehicles and warehousing vehicles will take up a remarkable
market share.电动车辆性能和工作效率接近内燃车辆，电动车辆、仓储车辆占比将大幅提高；Industrial vehicles with new energy will be widely used. Composite substitutes madefrom waste materials will be put into use during the production of industrial vehicles.新能源工业车辆广泛应用；由废旧材料制成的复合替代材料在工业车辆制造过程得到使用。

Forecast for China’s Industrial Truck Market in 2025 (Personal Opinion)
2025中国工业车辆市场容量预测（个人观点）

Total market size in China: around 300,000 units
中国市场总容量约30万辆
The economic growth of
China will slow down from
10% to 6% gradually. The
industrial truck market in
China will be adjusted
towards the optimization of
the structure from theexpansion of market scale.
中国经济增长速度由10%左右，逐步降低到6%左右，中国工业车辆市场将经历从总量规模增长向结构调整优化转变China to realize theEconomy
Restructuring andCarbon Economy forthe scientificdevelopment
中国经济结构的调整和发
展方式转变，实现低碳科学发展With the implementation ofregional revitalization
planning, logistics
revitalization planning andrevitalization planning inequipment manufacturingindustry, the efficiency oflogistics will be enhanced
step by step, and thedomestic logistics will be
developed with an upward
growth中国区域振兴规划、《物流业振兴规划》、《装备制造业振兴规划》的实施，物流效率将逐步提
高，中国国内物流业变得发达

Thank You!
谢谢大家！