Automated	  Methods	  for	  Personal	  Risk	  Management	  John	  B	  Rundle	  (and	  Many	  Others)	  University	  of	  California	  Santa	  Fe	  InsBtute	  Open	  Hazards	  Group	  Forecasting vs. Prediction
Context

Characteristic

Alternatively

PredicBon	  A	  statement	  that	  can	  be	  validated	  or	  falsiﬁed	  with	  1	  observaBon	  PredicBon	  is	  characterized	  by	  a	  search	  for	  reliable	  precursors	  Forecast	  A	  statement	  for	  which	  mulBple	  observaBons	  are	  required	  to	  determine	  a	  conﬁdence	  level	  ForecasBng	  is	  characterized	  by	  a	  computaBon	  of	  probabiliBes	  Types	  of	  Forecasts	  • Fault-­‐based	  forecasts	  – Focuses	  on	  individual	  faults	  – Needs	  informaBon	  on	  fault	  properBes,	  recurrence	  intervals,	  and	  other	  geologic	  data	  – Must	  make	  assumpBons	  about	  fault-­‐to-­‐fault	  jumps	  of	  slip	  and	  other	  physical	  processes	  to	  calculate	  forecasts	  – Large	  logic	  tree	  – AssumpBons	  must	  be	  made	  about	  fault	  slip	  segmentaBon	  • Area-­‐based	  forecasts	  – Focuses	  on	  earthquake	  acBvity	  in	  deﬁned	  area	  – Needs	  seismicity	  data	  from	  catalogs	  – Uses	  the	  Gutenberg-­‐Richter	  relaBon	  – Uses	  small	  earthquakes	  counts	  to	  forecast	  large	  earthquakes	  – Fault	  slip	  segmentaBon	  issues	  are	  considered	  automaBcally	  Types	  of	  Forecasts	  • Fault-­‐based	  forecasts	  	  – Focuses	  on	  individual	  faults	  – Needs	  informaBon	  on	  fault	  properBes,	  recurrence	  intervals,	  and	  other	  geologic	  data	  – Must	  make	  assumpBons	  about	  fault-­‐to-­‐fault	  jumps	  of	  slip	  and	  other	  physical	  processes	  to	  calculate	  forecasts	  – Large	  logic	  tree	  – AssumpBons	  must	  be	  made	  about	  fault	  slip	  segmentaBon	  • Area-­‐based	  forecasts	  – Focuses	  on	  earthquake	  acBvity	  in	  deﬁned	  area	  – Needs	  seismicity	  data	  from	  catalogs	  – Uses	  the	  Gutenberg-­‐Richter	  relaBon	  – Uses	  small	  earthquakes	  counts	  to	  forecast	  large	  earthquakes	  – Fault	  slip	  segmentaBon	  issues	  are	  considered	  automaBcally	  Large	  Region	  &	  Long	  Time	  	  California-­‐Nevada,	  1920	  to	  4/1/2015	  All	  data	  in	  the	  region	  from	  1920-­‐2015.	  

California-­‐Nevada	  Region.	  	  	  	  Scaling	  line	  has	  b=0.93	  GR	  RelaBon	  indicates	  a	  deﬁcit	  of	  earthquakes	  M>7.2,	  and	  that	  an	  M~8	  earthquake	  is	  needed	  to	  complete	  the	  scaling	  relaBon.	  

www.openhazards.com	  Small	  Region	  &	  Short	  Time	  North	  Coast,	  CA,	  200	  km	  Radius	  Circle,	  1/10/2010	  to	  3/10/2014	  	  Data	  between	  M6.5	  earthquake	  on	  1/10/2010	  and	  M6.8	  eq	  on	  3/10/2014.	  	  California-­‐North	  Coast	  Region.	  
Earthquakes	  within	  200	  km	  radius	  of	  	  40.67o	  N	  ,	  -­‐125.01o	  W.	  	  	  	  Scaling	  line	  has	  b	  =	  0.53	  GR	  RelaBon	  indicates	  a	  deﬁcit	  of	  earthquakes	  M>4.0,	  and	  that	  an	  M~7	  earthquake	  is	  needed	  to	  complete	  the	  scaling	  relaBon.	  

www.openhazards.com	  Small	  Region	  &	  Short	  Time	  Los	  Angeles,	  CA,	  160	  km	  Radius	  Circle,	  7/21/1952	  to	  4/1/2015	  Data	  between	  the	  M7.3	  Kern	  County	  eq	  on	  7/21/1952	  and	  4/1/2015.	  	  California-­‐North	  Coast	  Region.	  
Earthquakes	  within	  160	  km	  radius	  of	  	  Los	  Angeles	  	  at	  34.05o	  N	  ,	  -­‐118.25o	  W.	  	  	  	  Scaling	  line	  has	  b	  =	  0.91	  GR	  RelaBon	  indicates	  a	  deﬁcit	  of	  earthquakes	  M>5.5,	  and	  that	  an	  M~7	  earthquake	  is	  needed	  to	  complete	  the	  scaling	  relaBon.	  

www.openhazards.com	  “Filling in” the Gutenberg-Richter Relation"
Statistics Before and After 3/11/2011"
Radius of 1000 km Around Tokyo

Data accessed 6/26/2014"
b=1.01 +/- 0.01	  All	  quakes	  from	  1961	  to	  the	  quakes	  just	  prior	  to	  M9.1	  on	  3/11/2011	  “Normal”	  staBsBcs	  All	  quakes	  aher	  M7.7	  on	  3/11/2011	  	  Deﬁcit	  of	  large	  events	  New Forecast Model: "Natural Time Weibull (NTW)• Count	  number	  of	  small	  earthquakes	  since	  the	  last	  large	  earthquake	  • Deﬁcit	  of	  large	  earthquakes	  relaBve	  to	  scaling	  line	  implies	  future	  large	  earthquake	  • Use	  a	  standard	  probability	  model	  (e.g.,	  Weibull)	  to	  quanBfy	  probabiliBes	  • Select	  best	  parameters	  in	  probability	  model	  based	  on	  backtesBng	  • Account	  for	  ﬁnite	  correlaBon	  length	  between	  events	  NTW Model displays the elastic rebound effectIdealized	  Model	  of	  ElasBc	  Rebound	  on	  a	  Fault:	  Fault	  Stress	   σ 	  H.F.	  Reid	  (1910)	  Time,	  t	  Fault	  Slip	  T	  t1	   t2	  Time,	  t	  OpBmized	  12	  month	  California-­‐Nevada	  forecast:	  ProbabiliBes	  (%)	  	  vs.	  	  Time	  for	  Magnitude	  ≥	  6	  Forecast	  as	  of	  2011/11/30	  Scajer	  Plot	  1997-­‐present	  Observed	  Frequency	  vs.	  
Computed	  Probability	  California-­‐NV	  Forecast	  OpBmal	  forecasts	  via	  backtesBng,	  using	  common	  validaBon	  and	  veriﬁcaBon	  tesBng	  procedures.	  

Bootstrap	  Error	  Analysis	  Temporal	  	  Receiver	  OperaBng	  CharacterisBc	  1997-­‐present	  Example: Vancouver Island Earthquakes"
Latest Significant Event was M6.6 on 4/24 /2014"JR Holliday et al, PAGEOPH (2014)

Chance	  of	  M>6	  earthquake	  in	  circular	  region	  of	  radius	  200	  km	  for	  next	  1	  year.	  	  	  Data	  accessed	  12/02/2014	  m6.6	  	  11/17/2009	  m6.0,6.1	  	  9/3,4/2013	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com	  Probabilities can change rapidly
Napa earthquake forecast: 9/30/2014

M>6,	  3	  Years:	  19.7%	  www.openhazards.com	  Probabilities can change rapidly
Napa earthquake forecast: 11/25/2014

M>6,	  3	  Years:	  21.2%	  www.openhazards.com	  Probabilities can change rapidly
Napa earthquake forecast: 4/19/2015

M>6,	  3	  Years:	  30.1%	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com	  www.openhazards.com