2019 Presidents’ Forum2019年世界联盟会议主席论坛
Zhang Dejin
张德进
Industrial Truck Institution, CCMA
中国工程机械工业协会工业车辆分会
Sep 6, 2019 San Diego, USA美国 圣地亚哥 2019年9月6日

CONTENS 目 录
A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势

B. Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状

C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势

1. China's GDP and GDP Growth Rate (2009-2019Q2)
2009-2019年二季度中国国内生产总值及同比增长率
100

9.4%

4048.79
34.85

41.21

53.86

59.30

7.9%7.8%

64.13

68.60

6.9%
7.3%

74.01

6.7%

10%

8%

6.8%

6.6%

6.4%

6.2%
6%

21.34

4%

02%
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

GDP（Trillion Yuan）国内生产总值（万亿元）

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 Q1 2019 Q2

GDP YOY Growth Rate（%）GDP同比增长率（%）

the New Normal, and maintained anannual growth rate of more than 6%with great resilience. In 2018, China's
GDP surpassed 90 trillion RMB for thefirst time.

23.75

20

2009

has gradually turned to medium-highspeed and high-quality growth under

82.08

9.6%

6012%

90.03

10.6%
80

 Since 2012, China's economic growth 自2012年以来，中国经济增速逐步从高速增
长转为新常态下的中高速和高质量增长，并保持巨大韧性，年增长率持续保持6%以上，2018年GDP首次突破90万亿元。

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势
2. China's Unemployment Rate (2009-2018)2009-2018年中国失业率 Since 2009, China's employment has steadily
increased while the unemployment rate hasremained stably below 4.5%, and even4.5%

dropped to less than 4% in 2017-2018. In 2018,

4.3%

13.61 million new jobs were created in cities

4.3%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

and towns, an increase of 100,000 over the

4.1%

4.1%

previous year, which makes economy in full

4.0%

employment.

3.9%
3.9%

3.8%

 2009年以来，中国就业稳步扩大，失业率始终稳定
在4.5%以下，2017-2018年进一步降至4%以下。
2018年，全年城镇新增就业1361万人，比上年增3.7%
20092010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

加10万人，经济处于充分就业状态。

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势
3. China's International Trade Balance (2015-YTD201905)
2015-2019年5月中国国际贸易差额(100,000,000 US Dollars，亿美元）

4,000

 With the strong growth of China's
3,695

domestic demand, China's international

3,500

trade surplus has been narrowing in

3,000

2,483

2,500

recent years, and it will shrink further in
2,216

the future. All along, China has been

2,000

striving to pursue trade balance and1,500

win-win cooperation.

1,123

1,000540

 随着中国内需的强劲增长，近年来中国国际

500

贸易顺差在持续收窄，且未来顺差还将进一

0

步缩小。一直以来，中国始终努力追求贸易
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019.1-5平衡，互利共赢。

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势
4. China's PMI Index (201806-201906)
2018年6月-2019年6月中国制造业采购经理指数(%)
53

 PMI Index in June 2019 was 49.5%, the5251

51.5

51.2

same with last month. Tax-cut policy

51.3

might boost manufacturing investment

50.8
50.2

5049

48

50.5

50
49.4

49.5

49.2

growth.

50.1
49.4 49.4

 2019年6月份，中国制造业采购经理指数为
49.4%，与上月持平，制造业景气度仍偏弱，减税政策有望提升制造业投资增速。

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势
5. China's Real Estate Development Prosperity Index (2018.06-2019.06)
2018年6月-2019年6月中国房地产开发景气指数103

 Since June 2018, China’s RealEstate Development Index has

102.5

102.02102

101.71101.92101.98102.02101.87been over 100, in a properly

101.96prosperous state.

101.5101100.5

100.93100.59100.57100.79100.89100.85100
2018.06 2018.07 2018.08 2018.09 2018.10 2018.11 2018.12 2019.01 2019.02 2019.03 2019.04 2019.05 2019.06

 2018年6月以来，中国房地产开发景气指数维持在100左右，运行在适度景气区间。

A. The Trend of Chinese Economy in Recent Years
近年来中国经济走势 After many years of high-speedgrowth,negative

appeared

ingrowth

China’s

first
Autoindustry in recent 28 years. In thefirst half of 2019, the China’s
Auto output still goes down.
 中国汽车工业在经历多年的高速增长
后，2018年行业产销量28年来首次出 现 同比负增长。2019 年 上 半 年 ，

汽车产量继续走低。

B. Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状
1. China's Sales Volume of Industrial Trucks (2009-YTD201906)
2009-2019年6月中国工业车辆销量
70

100%

59.72

60

67.31%

49.67

50

35.04%

40

31.38

30
20
1080%

28.87

32.88

35.96

32.76

23.24
13.89%

13.89-17.38%

37.01

40%

34.23%

20.21%

30.66

12.95%

9.39%-8.02%

60%-0.31%-8.90%

20%
0%
-20%

0-40%
20092010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Sales Volume (10,000 units 销量（万台）

2015

2016

2017

YOY Growth Rate (%) 同比增长率（%）

20182019.1-6

B. Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状
2. Proportion of Electric Truck vs. IC Truck-China (2009-YTD201906)
2009-2019年6月中国市场电动车与内燃车比例变化情况
100%

80%
IC Truck
内燃车辆

60%

40%

23.91%

22.69%

20092010

26.51%

27.73%

27.05%

30.65%

36.66%

38.24%

41.00%

47.07%

44.93%

Electric Truck电动车辆Proportion of Electric truck电动车辆占比20%0%20112012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019.1-6

B. Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状
3. Proportion of CB Truck vs. WH Truck-China (2009-YTD201906)
2009-2019年6月中国市场平衡重车与仓储车比例变化情况
100%

80%
CB Truck
平衡重式车辆

60%

WH Truck

40%20%

13.36%

12.81%

20092010

16.94%

17.36%

16.91%

18.97%

2011

2012

2013

2014

25.01%

27.44%

30.34%

36.51%

34.99%

2016

Proportion of WH Truck仓储车辆占比0%2015仓储车辆2017

20182019.1-6

B. Current Situation of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
当前中国工业车辆行业发展现状
4. Sales of Five Types of Industrial Trucks-China (Jan 2019-June 2019)2019年1-6月中国工业车辆市场各类车型销售情况

2018H1

2019H1
4662, 2%5523, 2%30043, 10%30458, 10%96628, 31%

102639,33%
168865, 55%

175383, 57%

Units, Share %台数，比重Class 1

Class 2Class 3

Class 4+5Class 1

Class 2

Class 3Class 4+5

C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势
1. Driven by the superposition of economic environment and industry cycle, China'sindustrial vehicle industry has entered a period of adjustment经济大环境与行业周期的叠加，促使中国工业车辆行业进入调整期

C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势
2. With the rapid growth of electric and new energy products, enterprises are introducing
intelligent products and transforming into service providers of total solutions
电动和新能源产品增长迅速，企业推出智能化产品，向整体解决方案服务商转型Electric电动

New Energy
新能源Intelligence智能

C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势
3. Application of Internet of Things and 5G Technology in Industrial Vehicle Industry
物联网技术、5G技术在工业车辆行业的应用C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势
4. With the rapid growth of labor costs, Electric warehouse vehicles are more and more
widely used
快速增长的人力成本，电动仓储车辆的应用越来越广泛C. Development trend of Industrial Vehicle Industry in China
未来中国工业车辆行业发展趋势
5. Industry competition will be more intense,more and higher new requirements for enterprises
行业竞争将会更加激烈，对企业提出更多更高的新要求

 Technology Innovation
Capability 技术创新能力

 Ability to provide value-added
service for post market
 后市场增值服务能力

 Flexible Manufacturing
 柔性制造能力

 Ability to operateinternationally 国际化运营能力

 Management soft power 管理软实力CHINA

 Team inspiration 组织活力效率

THANK YOU谢谢