FY2012 Annual Survey of Corporate Behavior

Table of contents

Survey methodology

01

Summary of the results

03

1

Business outlook and demand forecast

03

2

Exchange rates

123

Prices18

4Growth rate of capital investment

23

5Change in the number of employees

286Overseas production ratio and reverse imports ratio

35Survey methodology

1

Objective of the survey

The objective of this survey is to clarify the actual state of theJapanese economy from the aspect of corporate activities, bycontinuously conducting surveys on how companies forecast
future business outlook and industrial demand trends.

2

Period of the survey

January 2013

3

Survey items

Business outlook and demand forecast, exchange rates, prices,
growth rate of capital investment, rate of change in the number of
employees, ratios of overseas production and reverse imports

4

Coverage

All companies listed in the First Section and Second Section of
the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Stock Exchange (2,374 companies
as of November 1, 2012)

5

Survey method

Self-reporting mailing method using prescribed questionnaire

6

Number of responding

815 (425 in manufacturing industries, 390 in non-manufacturing

companies

industries)

Response rate

34.3%

7

(Note) The sectors used in this survey are based on the classifications for securities codes.
The breakdown for manufacturing industries is as follows.
Material-type manufacturing industries:
Processing-type manufacturing industries:
Other manufacturing industries:

Textiles & Apparels, Pulp & Paper, Chemicals, Iron & Steel,
Nonferrous Metals
Machinery, Electric Appliances, Transportation Equipment,
Precision Instruments
Foods, Pharmaceutical, Oil & Coal Products, Rubber Products,
Glass & Ceramics Products, Metal Products, Other Products

-1-

-2-

Summary of the results

1

Business outlook and demand forecast(1) Forecast of Japan’s economic growth rate
○ The real economic growth rate for the “next fiscal year” (FY2013) on an all industries basis(average of actual values) was forecast to rise by 1.2%, a rise for the fourth consecutive
year.
○ The forecasts for the “next 3 years” (1.1%) and the “next 5 years” (1.2%) were both lower
than the previous year’s survey (1.5% and 1.5%, respectively) and roughly the same level
as the forecast for the “next fiscal year.”○ The forecasts of the nominal economic growth rate for the “next fiscal year,” “next 3 years”
and “next 5 years” were all lower than those of the real economic growth rate, implyingthat sustained deflation was expected. However, the gap between nominal and real growthrate forecasts has narrowed since the previous year’s survey.

Japan’s real economic growth rate for the “next fiscal year” (FY2013) on an all industries
basis (average of actual values1)) by the companies surveyed (companies listed on the first andsecond sections of the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Stock Exchanges) was forecast to rise by
1.2%, which was lower than the results of the previous year (FY2011, 1.6%) but a rise for the
fourth consecutive year (Fig. 1-1, Table 1-1).
With regard to the medium-term outlook, the forecasts for the “next 3 years” (average of
FY2013‒2015) and the “next 5 years” (average of FY2013‒2017) were 1.1% and 1.2%,
respectively, both lower than the previous year’s results (1.5% and 1.5%, respectively) androughly the same level as the forecast for the “next fiscal year.”
Looking at the forecast for the “next fiscal year” by capital size, the forecast by companies
with capital of “Less than 1 billion yen” was 1.0%, those with “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)”was 1.1%, those with “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” was 1.2% and those with “10 billion yen
or more” was also 1.2%, indicating that the larger the company the higher the forecast tended tobe.
On the other hand, the forecast of nominal economic growth rates for the “next fiscal year”
on an all industries basis (average of actual values) was 0.8%, for the “next 3 years” was 1.0%
and for the “next 5 years” was 1.1%. The nominal economic growth rate forecasts for the “nextfiscal year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years” were all lower than real economic growth rates
1)

The averages in this survey are simple averages. The same applies hereinafter.

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(-0.4% points for the “next fiscal year,” -0.1% points for the “next 3 years” and -0.1% points forthe “next 5 years”)2) and sustained deflation was expected, but the gap between nominal andreal economic growth rates (real economic growth rate subtracted from nominal economic
growth rate) has narrowed since the previous year’s survey.

[Fig. 1-1] Trend of Japan’s real economic growth rate forecasts (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years

4.0

Next fis cal year
Next 5 years

3.0

1.2
1.2

2.0
1.0
0.0

Next 3 yea rs

1.1

2011

‐2.0

2008

‐1.0

2012

2010

2009

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0

Survey yea r (FY)

Note: With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscalyear” in the FY2012 survey refers to the forecast for FY2013; the “forecast for the next 3 years”
refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the “forecast for the next 5 years” refers to theforecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).

2)

The difference using figures rounded to one decimal place. Figures in the statistical tables (displayed up to two
decimal places) are used in the charts in the pages that follow. The same applies hereinafter.

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[Table 1-1] Trend of Japan’s economic growth rate forecasts (all industries basis)(%)

Nominal economic growth rate
Survey year

Real economic growth rate

Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the
next fiscal year next 3 years
next 5 years next fiscal year next 3 years
next 5 years

FY 1989

-

-

-

4.3

3.8

3.6

1990

-

-

-

3.6

3.5

3.6

1991

-

-

-

3.1

3.4

3.5

1992

-

-

-

2.4

2.9

3.1

1993

-

-

-

0.8

1.7

2.1

1994

-

-

-

1.8

2.2

2.3

1995

-

-

-

1.7

2.0

2.2

1996

-

-

-

1.5

1.8

1.9

1997

-

-

-

0.9

1.4

1.7

1998

-

-

-

-0.2

0.8

1.2

1999

-

-

-

0.9

1.3

1.5

2000

-

-

-

1.3

1.5

1.7

2001

-

-

-

-0.4

0.6

1.2

2002

-

-

-

0.3

0.7

1.0

2003

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

2004

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

2005

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.9

2006

1.7

1.7

1.7

2.2

2.1

2.1

2007

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.9

2008

-1.5

0.0

0.8

-1.5

0.2

1.0

2009

-0.1

0.6

1.0

0.4

1.0

1.3

2010

0.3

0.7

1.0

0.9

1.2

1.3

2011

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.5

2012

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

Note 1: With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2012
survey refers to the forecast for FY2013; the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 toFY2015; and the “forecast for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).
Note 2: The survey of nominal economic growth rates started in FY2003.

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(2) Forecast of growth rate of industry demand○ The forecast of the real growth rate for the “next fiscal year” (all industries basis, averageof actual values) was 1.0%, a positive growth forecast for the third consecutive year.
○ The forecast declined from the previous year’s results in both manufacturing andnon-manufacturing industries. The drop in manufacturing industries was large, withsignificant declines in sectors including “Transportation Equipment” (down 2.3% points),“Nonferrous Metals” (down 1.6% points) and “Electric Appliances” (down 0.9% points).
On the other hand, sectors such as “Metal Products” (up 0.3% points), “Construction” (up0.1% points) and “Retail Trade” (up 0.1% points) saw a rise.
○ Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries forecast positive growth for the“next fiscal year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years.”○ Looking at the forecasts for the “next fiscal year” by sector, the growth rate forecasts werehigh in sectors such as “Metal Products” (1.6%) and “Machinery” (1.6%) in manufacturingindustries, and “Construction” (1.9%) and “Electric Power & Gas” (1.8%) in
non-manufacturing industries.
○ Compared to Japan’s real economic growth rate forecast (all industries basis), the real
growth rate forecasts of industry demand were lower for the “next fiscal year,” “next 3
years” and “next 5 years.”

The forecast of the real growth rate for the “next fiscal year” (all industries basis, average ofactual values) was 1.0%, which is lower than the results of the previous year (FY2011, 1.4%)
but a rise for the third consecutive year (Fig. 1-2, Table 1-2).
The forecast of the real growth rate declined in both manufacturing and non-manufacturingindustries from the previous year’s results. The decline in manufacturing industries was large inparticular, with significant drops seen in “Transportation Equipment” (down 2.3% points),“Nonferrous Metals” (down 1.6% points) and “Electric Appliances” (down 0.9% points).
On the other hand, sectors such as “Metal Products” (up 0.3% points), “Construction” (up0.1% points) and “Retail Trade” (also up 0.1% points) saw a higher forecast (Fig. 1-5, Fig. 1.6).
With regard to the medium-term outlook, the forecast for the “next 3 years” was 1.0% andthe “next 5 years” also 1.0%, both lower than the previous year’s results (1.4% and 1.3%,
respectively).

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[Fig. 1-2] Trend of real growth rate forecasts of industry demand (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years

4.0
3.0
2.0

1.0
1.0
1.0

1.0
0.0
‐1.0
‐2.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0

Survey yea r (FY)

Note: With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscalyear” in the FY2012 survey refers to the forecast for FY2013; the “forecast for the next 3 years”
refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the “forecast for the next 5 years” refers to theforecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).

By industry, the forecasts by manufacturing industries were 1.0% for the “next fiscal year,”
1.1% for the “next 3 years” and 1.1% for the “next 5 years,” while those by non-manufacturingindustries were 1.0% for the “next fiscal year,” 0.8% for the “next 3 years” and 0.8% for the“next 5 years,” indicating that non-manufacturing industries expect lower growth rates for the“next 3 years” and the “next 5 years” than manufacturing industries (Fig. 1-3).
By manufacturing industry segment, the forecasts by material-type manufacturing industries
were 0.8% for the “next fiscal year,” 1.0% for the “next 3 years” and 1.0% for the “next 5
years,” while those by processing-type manufacturing industries were 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.5%,
respectively, and other manufacturing industries 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.7%, respectively, indicatingthat processing-type manufacturing industries expect higher growth than material-type andother manufacturing industries.
By sector (sectors with 5 or more responding companies), 23 sectors out of 24 sectors expect
positive growth for the “next fiscal year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years.” Growth rate
forecasts were high for the “next fiscal year” in sectors such as “Metal Products” (1.6%) and“Machinery” (1.6%) in manufacturing industries and “Construction” (1.9%) and “ElectricPower & Gas” (1.8%) in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 1-4).
Looking at the forecasts for the “next fiscal year” by capital size, the forecast by companies
with a capital of “Less than 1 billion yen” was 0.4%, those with “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)”
0.8%, companies with “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” 1.4% and those with “10 billion yen ormore” 1.3%, indicating that the larger the company the higher the forecast tended to be (Fig.
1-3).

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On the other hand, the forecast of nominal growth rates (all industries basis, average of actual
values) was 0.8% for the “next fiscal year,” 0.8% for the “next 3 years” and 0.8% for the “next5 years,” all lower than the previous year’s results. The forecast for nominal growth rates forthe “next fiscal year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years” were all lower than real growth rates(-0.2% points for the “next fiscal year,” -0.2% points for the “next 3 years” and -0.2% points forthe “next 5 years”) and a decline in prices was expected, but the gap between nominal and real
economic growth rates has narrowed since the previous year’s survey.
Furthermore, in comparison to the forecasts of Japan’s real economic growth rates (allindustries basis), the forecasts of real industrial demand growth rates were lower for “next fiscal
year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years.”[Fig. 1-3] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

10 billion yen or more

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

0.0

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

0.0

Non-manufacturing

1.0

Other

1.0

Processing-type

2.0

Material-type

2.0

Manufacturing

3.0

Less than 1 billion yen

(%)

3.0

All industries

Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years

All industries

Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years(%)

Note: The “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2012 survey refers to the forecast for FY2013;
the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the “forecast
for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).

-8-

[Fig. 1-4] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by sector(%)

Forecast for the next fiscal year

Forecast for the next 3 years

Forecast for the next 5 years

3.0
2.0
1.0

Note 1: The “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2012 survey refers to the forecast for FY2013;
the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the“forecast for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year
average).
Note 2: Only sectors with 5 or more responding companies are included for all of the “forecast for the
next fiscal year,” “forecast for the next 3 years” and “forecast for the next 5 years.”-9-

Pulp & Paper

Textiles & Apparels

Land Transportation

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Foods

Retail Trade

Transportation Equipment

Wholesale Trade

Iron & SteelOther Products

BanksElectric Appliances

Glass & Ceramics Products

Services

Real Estate

Nonferrous Metals

Chemicals

Pharmaceutical

Precision Instruments

Machinery

Information & Communication

Metal Products

Construction

Electric Power & Gas‐1.0

All industries

0.0<Reference>: Real growth rate forecasts of industrial demand compared to the previous year’s results(next fiscal year)[Fig. 1-5] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by industry compared to the previous
year’s results (next fiscal year)
FY2011 survey
FY2012 survey

(%)

3.0

2.0

Non-manufacturing

Other

Processing-type

Material-type

All industries

0.0

Manufacturing

1.0[Fig. 1-6] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by sector compared to the previous
year’s results (next fiscal year)(%)

FY2011 survey

FY2012 survey

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

Note: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies in the FY2012 survey.

- 10 -

Pulp & Paper

Textiles & Apparels

Land Transportation

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Foods

Retail Trade

Transportation Equipment

Other Products

Wholesale Trade

Banks

Iron & SteelElectric Appliances

Glass & Ceramics Products

Real Estate

Services

Chemicals

Nonferrous Metals

Precision Instruments

Pharmaceutical

Machinery

Information & Communication

Metal ProductsElectric Power & Gas

Construction‐1.0

All industries

0.0[Table 1-2] Trend of growth rate forecasts of industry demand (all industries basis)(%)

Nominal growth rate of industry demand
Survey year

Real growth rate of industry demand

Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the Forecast for the
next fiscal year next 3 years
next 5 years next fiscal year next 3 years
next 5 years

FY 1989

-

-

-

4.5

4.2

4.0

1990

-

-

-

4.2

4.2

4.2

1991

-

-

-

2.7

3.6

3.8

1992

-

-

-

2.0

3.0

3.2

1993

-

-

-

0.4

1.7

2.2

1994

-

-

-

1.7

2.2

2.3

1995

-

-

-

1.8

2.0

2.2

1996

-

-

-

1.4

1.8

2.0

1997

-

-

-

0.5

1.3

1.7

1998

-

-

-

-0.2

0.9

1.4

1999

-

-

-

0.7

1.2

1.4

2000

-

-

-

1.0

1.3

1.5

2001

-

-

-

-1.1

0.3

1.0

2002

-

-

-

-0.0

0.5

0.8

2003

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

2004

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

2005

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.4

2006

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.7

1.7

2007

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

2008

-2.9

-0.5

0.4

-2.7

-0.2

0.6

2009

-0.9

0.3

0.6

-0.5

0.5

0.8

2010

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

2011

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.4

1.4

1.3

2012

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

Note 1: With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2012 survey
refers to the forecast for FY2013; the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the“forecast for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).
Note 2: The survey of nominal growth rates started in FY2003.

- 11 -

2

Exchange rates(1) Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year
○ The forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year (around January 2014) (all industries basis, classvalue average) was 88.4 yen/dollar. This represents a lower yen forecast by 8.1 yen fromthe previous year’s results (80.3 yen/dollar) and the first weaker yen forecast in six years.
○ The forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year was 4.8 yen lower than the yen-dollar rate in themonth immediately before the survey (83.6 yen/dollar in December 2012).

The forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year (around January 2014) (all industries basis, classvalue average 3)) was 88.4 yen/dollar. The forecast by manufacturing industries was 88.1
yen/dollar and 88.7 yen/dollar by non-manufacturing industries, both representing the first
forecast of a depreciation of the yen in six years (Fig. 2-1, Table 2-1).
The forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year was 4.8 yen weaker than the yen-dollar rate4) in themonth immediately before the survey (83.6 yen/dollar in December 2012).

[Fig. 2-1] Trend of the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate(all industries basis)(yen/dollar)

160
Forecast yen‐dollar rate after 1 year
Break‐even yen‐dollar rate
Yen‐dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey

140

120

100
88.4
83.9
80

83.6

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

60
Survey yea r (FY)

Note 1: “Forecast yen-dollar rate” refers to the class value average, and “break-even yen-dollar rate” refers to theaverage of actual values.
Note 2: “Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.
3)“The class value average” is an average value calculated using the median value of each class (for example, if theclass chosen is “10%-20% (not incl.),” the median would be 15%). Note that average values for classes that haveno upper limit are calculated using the lower limit (e.g. for the class “20% or more,” it will be 20%), and those forclasses without a lower limit will use the upper limit (e.g. in “-20% or less,” it will be -20%). The same applies
hereinafter.
4)Interbank Rate(US dollar/yen Central Rate, Average in the Month, Tokyo Market). The same applies hereinafter.

- 12 -

(2) Break-even yen-dollar rate
○ The break-even yen-dollar rate for exporting companies on an all industries basis (averageof actual values) was 83.9 yen/dollar.
This was 1.9 yen lower than the previous year’s result (82.0 yen/dollar) and the first
depreciation of the yen in six years.
○ By industry, the break-even yen-dollar rate was 84.1 yen/dollar in manufacturing industries
and 81.8 yen/dollar in non-manufacturing industries. These represent a 0.5 yen depreciationof the yen for the manufacturing industries and a 1.8 yen appreciation for the
non-manufacturing industries from the yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before thesurvey (83.6 yen/dollar in December 2012).
○ By sector, the break-even yen-dollar rate in sectors such as “Textiles & Apparels” (91.9
yen/dollar) and “Iron & Steel” (90.2 yen/dollar) was at a weaker yen level than the average(the break-even yen-dollar rate for all industries) while sectors such as “Pharmaceutical”(79.0 yen/dollar) and “Wholesale Trade” (81.7 yen/dollar) were stronger.
○ Sectors with a stronger yen level than the average have higher real industry demand growthrate forecasts and overseas production ratios than sectors with a weaker yen level.

The break-even yen-dollar rate for exporting companies on an all industries basis (average ofactual values) was 83.9 yen/dollar, which corresponds to a 1.9 yen depreciation of the yen
compared to the previous year’s result (82.0 yen/dollar, -2.3% year-on-year) and the first
depreciation of the yen in six years (Fig. 2-1, Table 2-1).
It was 0.3 yen weaker than the exchange rate in the month immediately before the survey and4.5 yen stronger than the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year.
By industry, the break-even yen-dollar rate was 84.1 yen/dollar in manufacturing industries
and 81.8 yen/dollar in non-manufacturing industries. These represent a 0.5 yen depreciation of
the yen for manufacturing industries and a 1.8 yen appreciation for non-manufacturingindustries from the yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey (Fig. 2-2).
Compared to the average (83.9 yen/dollar) in sector terms, the break-even yen-dollar rate in“Textiles & Apparels” (91.9 yen/dollar) and “Iron & Steel” (90.2 yen/dollar) was at a weaker
yen level, while sectors such as “Pharmaceutical” (79.0 yen/dollar) and “Wholesale Trade”(81.7 yen/dollar) were stronger (Fig. 2-3). Furthermore, sectors with a stronger yen level than
the average have higher real industry demand growth rate forecasts and overseas production
ratios than sectors with a weaker yen level (Fig. 2-4).
By capital size, the break-even yen-dollar rate was 87.6 yen/dollar at companies with acapital of “Less than 1 billion yen,” 85.6 yen/dollar at those with “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.),”82.5 yen/dollar at companies with “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” and 83.0 yen/dollar at thosewith “10 billion yen or more.” Compared to the yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before- 13 -

the survey, the break-even yen-dollar rate at companies with “Less than 1 billion yen” and “1 to5 billion yen (not incl.)” was 4.0 yen and 2.0 yen weaker, respectively, while the rate atcompanies with “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” and “10 billion yen or more” was 1.1 yen and
0.6 yen stronger, respectively (Fig. 2-2).

[Fig. 2-2] Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rateby industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year
Break-even yen-dollar rate(yen/dollar)

110(yen/dollar)

Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year
Break-even yen-dollar rate

110

10 billion yen or more

60

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

60

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

70
Non‐manufacturing

70
Other

80

Processing‐type80

Material‐type

90

Manufacturing

90

All industries

Yen‐dollar in the month immediately before
the survey (Dec.2012) : 83.6 yen/dollar

100

All industries

100

Less than 1 billion yen

Yen‐dollar in the month immediately before
the survey (Dec.2012) : 83.6 yen/dollar

Note 1: “Forecast yen-dollar rate” refers to the class value average, and “break-even yen-dollar rate”
refers to the average of actual values.
Note 2: “Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting
exports.

- 14 -

[Fig. 2-3] Break-even yen-dollar rate by sector(yen/dollar)

110
Avera ge: 83.9 yen/dollar(Brea k‐even yen‐dollar ra te of a ll i ndustries)

100
90
80

Stronger yen than average

Textiles & Apparels

Iron & Steel

Pulp & Paper

Metal Products

Glass & Ceramics Products

Other Products

Foods

MachineryTransportation Equipment

Electric Appliances

Nonferrous Metals

Precision Instruments

Chemicals

Wholesale Trade

60

Pharmaceutical70

Weaker yen than average

Note 1: “Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports (average ofactual values).
Note 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies.

- 15 -

<Reference>: Real growth rate forecast of industry demand and overseas production ratio bybreak-even yen-dollar rate level[Fig. 2-4] Real growth rate forecast of industry demand and overseas production ratio
by break-even yen-dollar rate level
Forecast of real growth rate of industry demand(next fiscal year)

1.1
0.7

Forecast of real growth rate of industry demand(next 3 years)

1.2
0.6

Sectors with a lower than average break-even yen-rate (stronger yen)
Sectors with a higher than average break-even yen-rate (weaker yen)

20.5

Overseas production ratio (FY2011 actual figure)

11.2
20.8

Overseas production ratio (FY2012 estimate)

12.0
25.2

Overseas production ratio (FY2017 forecast)

14.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 (%)

Note 1: Sectors were divided into two groups according to whether the break-even yen-dollar rate was lower (stronger yen) or
higher (weaker yen) than the average. The real growth rate forecasts of industry demand of both groups, etc. werere-calculated (averages of actual values) and then compared.
Note 2: “Next fiscal year” refers to FY2013 and “next 3 years” refers to the average of FY2013-FY2015.
Note 3: Overseas production ratio = Volume of overseas production / (Volume of domestic production + Volume of overseas
production)
Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.

- 16 -

[Table 2-1] Trend of the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate(all industries basis)(yen/dollar)

Forecast yen-dollar
rate after 1 year

Break-even yen-dollar
rate

Yen-dollar rate in themonth immediately
before the survey

FY 1989

139.2

133.3

143.6

1990

129.5

129.7

133.7

1991

124.2

126.2

128.1

1992

123.4

124.0

124.0

1993

112.2

117.5

109.7

1994

100.2

107.8

99.8

1995

105.3

104.0

101.9

1996

115.6

106.2

113.8

1997

126.2

110.4

129.5

1998

118.4

112.7

117.5

1999

107.6

106.5

102.7

2000

114.2

107.0

112.2

2001

132.8

115.3

127.4

2002

124.5

114.9

122.3

2003

109.3

105.9

107.9

2004

106.4

102.6

103.8

2005

113.2

104.5

118.6

2006

115.5

106.6

117.3

2007

111.0

104.7

112.3

2008

97.0

97.3

90.4

2009

95.9

92.9

89.6

2010

88.4

86.3

83.4

2011

80.3

82.0

77.9

2012

88.4

83.9

83.6

Survey year

Note 1: “Forecast yen-dollar rate” refers to the class value average, and “break-even yen-dollar rate” refers to
the average of actual values.
Note 2: “Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.
Note 3: “Yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey” refers to figures in December except
for FY1994 and FY2008 (figures for FY1994 and 2008 are figures in January since the survey was
conducted in February).

- 17 -

3

Prices(1) Average purchase price○ The average purchase price after 1 year (all industries basis, class value average) was
forecast to rise by 1.4%, indicating an accelerated increase as compared to the previous
year’s result (up 1.3%).
○ By sector, the rate of increase was forecast to be high in sectors including “Rubber
Products” (up 4.5%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (up 3.3%) in manufacturing industries and“Construction” (up 3.3%) and “Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services” (up 2.1%)
in non-manufacturing industries.

The average purchase price after 1 year was forecast to rise by 1.4% (up 1.3% in the previous
year’s survey) on an all industries basis (class value average). It was forecast to rise by 1.5% inmanufacturing industries (up 1.4% in the previous year’s survey) and by 1.2% in
non-manufacturing industries (up 1.2% previously) (Fig. 3-1, Table 3-1).
By manufacturing industry segment, the average purchase price after 1 year was forecast to
rise by 2.4% in material-type manufacturing industries (up 3.0% in the previous year’s survey),
0.6% in processing-type manufacturing industries (up 0.3% previously) and 2.1% in othermanufacturing industries (up 1.3% in the previous year’s survey). The rate of increase wasforecast to accelerate in the processing-type manufacturing industries and other manufacturingindustries as compared to the previous year’s results.
By sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), the rate of increase was forecast toaccelerate in 22 sectors out of 25. The rate of increase is expected to be high in sectors such as“Rubber Products” (up 4.5%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (up 3.3%) in manufacturing industries
and “Construction” (up3.3%) and “Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services” (up 2.1%)
in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 3-2).
By capital size, the forecast average purchase price after 1 year by companies with a capitalof “Less than 1 billion yen” was up 1.8% (up 1.7% in the previous year’s survey), those with “1to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” was up 2.1% (up 1.6% previously), those with “5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)” was up 0.6% (up 0.8% previously), those with “10 billion yen or more” was up
1.0% (up 1.1% previously), which represent a rise in prices in all classes. At companies with acapital of “Less than 1 billion yen” and “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” the increase was larger
than the previous year’s results (Fig. 3-1, Table 3-1).

- 18 -

(2) Average sales price○ The average sales price after 1 year (all industries basis, class value average) was forecast
to drop by 0.1%, which represents a smaller decline as compared to the previous year’s
result (down 0.3%).
○ By sector, the rate of decline was forecast to be high in sectors such as “ElectricAppliances” (down 3.0%) and “Precision Instruments” (down 1.7%) in manufacturingindustries and “Banks” (down 0.8%), “Retail Trade” (down 0.6%) and “Information &Communication” (down 0.6%) in non-manufacturing industries.
○ For both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing industries, the rise in purchaseprices will not be passed through to sales prices, and the terms of trade were likely toworsen.

The average sales price after 1 year was forecast to drop by 0.1% (down 0.3% in the previous
year’s survey) on an all industries basis (class value average). It was forecast to drop by 0.5% inmanufacturing industries (down 0.7% in the previous year’s survey) and increase by 0.4% in
non-manufacturing industries (up 0.2% previously) (Fig. 3-1, Table 3-1).
By manufacturing industry segment, the forecast of average sales price after 1 year atmaterial-type manufacturing industries continued to rise, by 0.4% (up 1.2% in the previous
year’s survey), while that at processing-type manufacturing continued to drop, by 1.8% (down
1.7% previously) and other manufacturing rose by 0.5% (down 1.0% previously).
By sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), the average sales price after 1 year
was expected to drop in 10 out of 25 sectors, with high decline rates in “Electric Appliances”(down 3.0%) and “Precision Instruments” (down 1.7%) in manufacturing industries and“Banks” (down 0.8%), “Retail Trade” (down 0.6%) and “Information & Communication”(down 0.6%) in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 3-2).
By capital size, the forecast average sales price after 1 year by companies with a capital of“Less than 1 billion yen” was up 0.9% (down 0.2% in the previous year’s survey), those with “1to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” was up 0.2% (down 0.2% previously), those with “5 to 10 billion
yen (not incl.)” was down 0.6% (down 0.8% previously), those with “10 billion yen or more”
was down 0.4% (down 0.3% previously), which indicate that sales price forecasts turned
positive at companies with a capital of “Less than 1 billion yen” and “1 to 5 billion yen (notincl.)” while they continued to drop at companies with “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” and “10billion yen or more” (Fig. 3-1, Table 3-1).
Companies’ terms of trade5) were expected to be -1.5% points for all industries (-1.6% points
5)

Terms of trade as mentioned here represent the value obtained upon subtracting the rate of change in the averagepurchase price from the rate of change in the average sales price.

- 19 -

in the previous year’s survey), -2.1% points for manufacturing industries (-2.0% points
previously) and -0.7% points for non-manufacturing industries (-1.0% points previously),
which indicates that both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries will not be able topass through the rise in purchase prices to sales prices, and the terms of trade were likely toworsen (Table 3-1).

[Fig. 3-1] Forecast rate of changes in average purchase and sales prices after 1 year
by industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

0.0

‐2.0

‐2.0

Non‐manufacturing

Other

Material‐type10 billion yen or more

0.0

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

2.0

Less than 1 billion yen

2.0

Processing‐type

4.0

Manufacturing

4.0

All industries

Average purchase price
Average sales price(%)

All industries(%)

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

Average purchase price
Average sales price[Fig. 3-2] Forecast rate of changes in average purchase and sales prices after 1 year by sector(%)

Average purchase price

Average sales price

6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Banks

Retail Trade

Information & Communication

Transportation Equipment

Electric Appliances

Electric Power & Gas

Services

Metal Products

Machinery

Pharmaceutical

Glass & Ceramics Products

Nonferrous Metals

Land Transportation

Pulp & Paper

Wholesale Trade

Real Estate

Iron & Steel

Precision Instruments

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Foods

Chemicals

Other Products

Construction

Textiles & Apparels

Rubber Products‐4.0

All industries‐2.0

Note: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies for both “average purchase price”
and “average sales price.”- 20 -

[Table 3-1] Forecast rate of changes in average purchase and sales prices and the change
in the terms of trade after 1 year by industry and capital size(%, % points)

Average purchase price
FY2012surveyAll industries

Industry

FY2012surveyTerms of trade

FY2011surveyFY2012surveyFY2011survey

1.4

1.3

-0.1

-0.3

-1.5

-1.6

1.5

1.4

-0.5

-0.7

-2.1

-2.0

Material-type

2.4

3.0

0.4

1.2

-2.0

-1.8

Processing-type

0.6

0.3

-1.8

-1.7

-2.4

-2.1

Other

2.1

1.3

0.5

-1.0

-1.7

-2.3

Non-manufacturing

1.2

1.2

0.4

0.2

-0.7

-1.0

Less than 1 billion yen

1.8

1.7

0.9

-0.2

-1.0

-1.8

1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)

2.1

1.6

0.2

-0.2

-1.9

-1.8

5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)

0.6

0.8

-0.6

-0.8

-1.1

-1.5

10 billion yen or more

1.0

1.1

-0.4

-0.3

-1.4

-1.4

Manufacturing

Capital size

FY2011surveyAverage sales priceNote 1: Terms of trade as mentioned here represent the value obtained upon subtracting the rate of change in the averagepurchase price from the rate of change in the average sales price.
Note 2: Terms of trade are derived from the rate of change of the average sales price and the rate of change of the averagepurchase price (refer to statistical tables 3-1 and 3-2) that include two decimal points. Therefore, they may notalways coincide with figures calculated from the rate of change in average sales prices and the rate of change inaverage purchase price in the table above due to rounding.

- 21 -

(3) Terms of trade by average purchase price class
In terms of rate of changes of average sales prices by the class of average purchase price after
1 year, the rate of the decline of average purchase prices was higher than the rate of the declineof average sales prices in classes of “-20% or less,” “-20% (not incl.) to -10%” and “-10% (notincl.) to -5%,” indicating that the terms of trade for these classes were likely to improve (Table
3-2).
On the other hand, the terms of trade were expected to worsen in classes that expect thechange of average purchase prices to be “-5% (not incl.) to 0% (not incl.)” or “0%” since therate of decline in average purchase prices was smaller than the rate of decline in average sales
prices.
Furthermore, the terms of trade were likely to worsen in classes that expect average purchaseprices to rise since the rate of increase in average sales prices were lower than the rate ofincrease in average purchase prices, except for in the “20% or more” class.

[Table 3-2] Forecast rate of changes in average sales price by average purchase priceclass and changes in the terms of trade after 1 year (all industries basis)(%, % points)

Number of responding
companies

Average sales priceTerms of trade

Average purchase price class
FY2012surveyFY2011surveyFY2012surveyFY2011surveyFY2012surveyFY2011survey-20% or less

1

1

-20.0

-2.5

0.0

17.5

-20% (not incl.) to -10%

2

3

-7.5

-12.5

7.5

2.5

-10% (not incl.) to -5%

17

24

-7.1

-7.2

0.4

0.3

-5% (not incl.) to 0% (not incl.)

130

149

-2.6

-2.8

-0.1

-0.3

0%

172

177

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

0% (not incl.) to 5% (not incl.)

272

288

0.7

0.3

-1.8

-2.2

5% to 10% (not incl.)

79

82

3.1

3.1

-4.4

-4.4

10% to 20% (not incl.)

10

11

3.5

9.1

-11.5

-5.9

20% or more

1

3

20.0

11.7

0.0

-8.3

Note 1: Terms of trade as mentioned here represent the value obtained upon subtracting the rate of change in the averagepurchase price from the rate of change in the average sales price.
Note 2: The rate of change in average purchase price is derived using the median value of each average purchase price class(for example, if the class chosen is “-20% (not incl.)‒-10%,” the median would be -15%. However, the “-20% orless” class uses “-20%” and the “20% or more” class uses “20%.”- 22 -

4

Growth rate of capital investment(1) Growth rate of capital investment over the past 3 years○ The growth rate of capital investment over the “past 3 years” (all industries basis, classvalue average) was 6.0%, a larger growth than the previous year’s survey (3.3%).

The growth rate of capital investment over the “past 3 years” (average of FY2010–2012) onan all industries basis (class value average) was 6.0%. The rate in manufacturing industries was
6.4% and non-manufacturing industries 5.6%, both higher than the previous year’s survey (Fig.
4-1, Table 4-1).

[Fig. 4-1] Trend of growth rate of capital investment over the past 3 years by industry
(%)

20.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

15.0

10.0
6.4

6.0
5.6

5.0

0.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐5.0

Survey yea r (FY)

Note: With regard to the “past 3 years,” for example, “past 3 years” in the FY2012 survey represents
rate of change from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average).

- 23 -

(2) Growth rate of capital investment over the next 3 years○ Capital investment was forecast to grow by 3.5% over the “next 3 years” (all industries
basis, class value average). While the growth rate has decelerated compared to that of theprevious year’s survey (4.1%), it represents an increase for the fourth consecutive year.
○ Both manufacturing industries and non-manufacturing industries were expected to see anincrease. The growth was expected to decelerate in manufacturing industries while it was
forecast to accelerate in non-manufacturing industries as compared to that of the previous
year’s survey.
○ By sector, the forecast growth rate was high in sectors such as “Glass & Ceramics
Products” (6.2%) and “Foods” (5.4%) in manufacturing industries and “Retail Trade”(9.5%) and “Securities & Commodity Futures” (7.5%) in non-manufacturing industries.
○ The growth rate for the “next 3 years” was expected to be smaller than the growth rate forthe “last 3 years” (6.0% on an all industries basis).

Capital investment was forecast to grow by 3.5% over the “next 3 years” (average of
FY2013–2015) on an all industries basis (class value average). The forecast growth rate in boththe manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries was 3.5%.
While the growth rate in all industries was expected to decelerate as compared to that of theprevious year’s survey (4.1%), it was an increase for the fourth consecutive year. The growthrate in manufacturing industries decelerated while that in non-manufacturing industries
accelerated (Fig. 4-2, Table 4-1).
By manufacturing industry segment, the forecast of capital investment growth rates inmaterial-type manufacturing industries was 2.4%, that in processing-type manufacturingindustries was 3.4% and other manufacturing was 4.6%, all representing an increase in capital
investment (Fig. 4-3).
By sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), capital investment was expected toincrease in 25 out of 27 sectors, with high increase rates forecast in “Glass & Ceramics
Products” (6.2%) and “Foods” (5.4%) in manufacturing industries and “Retail Trade” (9.5%)
and “Securities & Commodity Futures” (7.5%) in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 4-4).
By capital size, the forecast capital investment growth by companies with a capital of “Lessthan 1 billion yen” was 4.1%, those with “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” was 4.8%, those with “5to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” was 3.3% and those with “10 billion yen or more” was 2.3%, all ofwhich represent an increase in capital investment (Fig. 4-3).
Furthermore, growth rates over the “next 3 years” were expected to decelerate in both the
manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries as compared to the growth rates over the “past3 years” (Fig. 4-3, Table 4-1).

- 24 -

[Fig. 4-2] Trend of growth rate forecasts of capital investment over the next 3 years by industry
(%)

20.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

15.0

10.0

3.5
3.5
3.5

5.0

0.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐5.0
Survey yea r (FY)

Note: With regard to “next 3 years,” for example, “next 3 years” in the FY2012 survey represents rateof change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

[Fig. 4-3] Growth rate of capital investment by industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

0.0

‐2.0

‐2.0

10 billion yen or more

0.0

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

2.0

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

2.0

Less than 1 billion yen

4.0

Non‐manufacturing

4.0

Other

6.0

Processing‐type

6.0

Material‐type

8.0

Manufacturing

8.0

All industries

Past 3 years
Next 3 years(%)

All industries

Past 3 years
Next 3 years(%)

Note: “Past 3 years” represents the growth rate from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average), and“next 3 years” represents growth rate forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

- 25 -

‐15.0- 26 -

Note 1: “Past 3 years” represents the growth rate from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average),and “next 3 years” represents growth rate forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year

Note 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies for both “last 3 years”
and “next 3 years.”
average).
Marine Transportation

Electric Power & Gas

Past 3 years

Pulp & Paper

Land Transportation

Iron & SteelInformation & Communication(%)

Nonferrous Metals

Transportation Equipment

Services

Wholesale Trade

Banks

Pharmaceutical

Chemicals

Textiles & Apparels

Construction

Rubber ProductsElectric Appliances

Machinery

Real Estate

Other Products

Metal Products

Precision Instruments

Foods

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Glass & Ceramics Products

Securities & Commodity Futures

Retail Trade

All industries[Fig. 4-4] Growth rate of capital investment by sector

15.0

Next 3 years

10.0

5.0

0.0

‐5.0

‐10.0

[Table 4-1] Trend of growth rate of capital investment by industry(%)

Past 3 years

Next 3 years

Survey year
All industries M anufacturing

NonNonAll industries M anufacturing
manufacturing
manufacturing

FY 1989

12.3

12.7

11.7

9.7

10.2

8.7

1990

11.9

12.4

11.1

7.9

7.7

8.4

1991

10.9

11.1

10.5

4.6

4.1

5.5

1992

10.5

9.7

11.9

2.8

2.6

3.2

1993

4.1

2.1

7.7

2.0

1.7

2.6

1994

0.9

-0.8

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

1995

3.1

2.6

3.9

4.8

4.7

5.0

1996

5.8

5.9

5.6

5.0

5.1

4.9

1997

7.4

8.1

6.4

3.0

3.4

2.4

1998

4.9

5.3

4.2

0.3

0.1

0.6

1999

2.1

0.9

4.1

1.7

1.9

1.4

2000

3.2

2.4

4.5

3.6

3.9

3.0

2001

4.0

4.1

3.9

1.2

0.8

1.9

2002

2.7

2.0

3.7

2.4

2.1

2.8

2003

1.9

1.3

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.2

2004

3.6

4.1

3.0

4.7

5.2

4.1

2005

7.5

9.2

5.5

5.9

6.2

5.5

2006

9.6

11.0

7.8

5.3

5.2

5.5

2007

8.9

10.0

7.7

5.1

5.1

5.1

2008

7.7

7.7

7.7

-1.2

-3.0

0.9

2009

2.2

-1.0

5.7

1.4

0.9

1.9

2010

0.7

-1.4

3.3

3.4

3.9

2.8

2011

3.3

2.3

4.3

4.1

4.9

3.2

2012

6.0

6.4

5.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

Note: With regard to “past 3 years” and “next 3 years,” for example, “past 3 years” in the FY2012 survey representschange from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average), and “next 3 years” represents
FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

- 27 -

rate ofrate of change forecasts from

5

Change in the number of employees(1) Rate of change in the number of employees over the past 3 years○ The rate of change in the number of employees over the “past 3 years” (all industries basis,class value average) was 0.5%, the same level as the previous year’s results.

The rate of change in the number of employees over the “past 3 years” was 0.5% on an allindustries basis (class value average), with 0.1% in manufacturing industries and 1.1% in
non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 5-1, Table 5-1).
The figure for all industries was the same as that of the previous year’s survey, while the rateof change in manufacturing industries rose from a flat change in the previous year’s survey andthe increase rate accelerated in non-manufacturing industries.

[Fig. 5-1] Trend in rate of change in the number of employees over the past 3 years by industry(%)

6.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

4.0
2.0

1.1
0.5
0.1

0.0
‐2.0
‐4.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

‐6.0
Survey yea r (FY)

Note 1: With regard to “past 3 years,” for example, “past 3 years” in the FY2012 survey represents rateof changes from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average).
Note 2: The survey of the rate of change in the number of employees started in FY1992.
Note 3: Only the FY2003 survey represents figures for “regular employees.”(The FY2003 survey wasfor “regular employees” and “part-time and temporary employees.”)- 28 -

(2) Rate of change in the number of employees over the next 3 years○ The forecast rate of change in the number of employees (all industries basis, class value
average) over the “next 3 years” was 1.0%, which was the same level as that of theprevious year’s survey (1.0%).
○ The number of employees was forecast to increase in both manufacturing andnon-manufacturing industries. Compared to the previous year’s survey, the growth rate in
manufacturing industries was expected to decelerate, while the growth rate in
non-manufacturing industries was expected to accelerate.
○ By sector, the forecast growth rate was high in sectors such as “Pharmaceutical” (2.3%)
and “Precision Instruments” (1.5%) in manufacturing industries and “Real Estate” (3.9%)
and “Retail Trade” (3.6%) in non-manufacturing industries.
○ Compared to the increase rate over the “past 3 years” (0.5% on an all industries basis), theincrease rate is forecast to accelerate over the “next 3 years.”

The forecast rate of change in the number of employees over the “next 3 years” was 1.0% on
an all industries basis (class value average), with 0.3% in manufacturing industries and 1.8% in
non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 5-2, Table 5-1).
The figure for all industries was the same as that of the previous year’s survey (1.0%), while
the rate of change decelerated in manufacturing industries from that of the previous year’s
survey and accelerated in non-manufacturing industries.
By manufacturing industry segment, the forecast growth rate for material-type manufacturingindustries was 0.6%, that for processing-type manufacturing industries was 0.2% and that forother manufacturing industries was 0.2%, which indicates that all segments forecast an increase(Fig. 5-3).
By sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), the number of employees wasforecast to grow in 23 out of 28 sectors, with high forecast growth rates seen in sectors such as“Pharmaceutical” (2.3%) and “Precision Instruments” (1.5%) in manufacturing industries and“Real Estate” (3.9%) and “Retail Trade” (3.6%) in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 5-4).
By capital size, the forecast growth rate of the number of employees at companies with acapital of “Less than 1 billion yen” was 2.4%, “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” was 1.7%, “5 to 10
billion yen (not incl.)” was 0.8% and “10 billion yen or more” was 0.3%, indicating that anincrease was forecast at all capital size classes (Fig. 5-3).
Furthermore, compared to the growth rate over the “past 3 years,” the growth rate was
expected to accelerate over the “next 3 years” in both manufacturing and non-manufacturingindustries (Fig. 5-3, Table 5-1).

- 29 -

[Fig. 5-2] Trend in forecast rate of changes in the number of employees over the next 3 years
by industry(%)

6.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

4.0
2.0

1.8
1.0
0.3

0.0
‐2.0
‐4.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

‐6.0
Survey yea r (FY)

Note 1: With regard to “next 3 years,” for example, “next 3 years” in the FY2012 survey represents rateof change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).
Note 2: The survey of the rate of change in the number of employees started in FY1992.
Note 3: Only the FY2003 survey represents figures for “regular employees.”(The FY2003 survey wasfor “regular employees” and “part-time and temporary employees.”)[Fig. 5-3] The rate of change in the number of employees by industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

10 billion yen or more

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)‐2.0

Less than 1 billion yen‐2.0

All industries

0.0

Non‐manufacturing

0.0

Other

2.0

Processing‐type

2.0

Material‐type

4.0

Manufacturing

4.0

All industries

Past 3 years
Next 3 years(%)

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

Past 3 years
Next 3 years(%)

Note: “Past 3 years” represents rate of changes from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average), and“next 3 years” represents rate of change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

- 30 -

‐4.0- 31 -

Foods

Rubber Products

Transportation Equipment

Past 3 years

Pulp & Paper

Nonferrous Metals

Other ProductsElectric Appliances

(%)

Banks

Iron & SteelElectric Power & Gas

Chemicals

Metal Products

Land Transportation

Construction

Glass & Ceramics Products

Textiles & Apparels

Securities & Commodity Futures

Wholesale Trade

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

MachineryPrecision Instruments

Services

Marine Transportation

Pharmaceutical

Information & Communication

Other Financing Business

Retail Trade

Real Estate

All industries[Fig. 5-4] Rate of change in the number of employees by sector

6.0

Next 3 years

4.0

2.0

0.0

‐2.0

Note 1: “Past 3 years” represents rate of changes from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average), and “nextNote 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies for both “past 3 years” and “next3 years.”
3 years” represents rate of change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

(3) Rate of change in the number of regular employees○ The forecast rate of change over the “next 3 years” for regular employees, from among thetotal number of employees on an all industries basis (class value average) was 0.8%, which
was not as strong of an increasing trend as compared to the total number of employees(1.0%).
○ Compared to the rate of change over the “past 3 years” (0.2% on an all industries basis), therate of increase over the “next 3 years” was expected to accelerate.
○ Comparing with the rate of change over the “past 3 years” by industry (-0.3% inmanufacturing industries; 0.8% in non-manufacturing industries), the rate of change was
expected to turn positive for manufacturing industries (0.2%) and accelerate in
non-manufacturing industries (1.5%).

The rate of change in the number of regular employees among the total number of employees
over the “past 3 years” was 0.2% on an all industries basis (class value average), -0.3% inmanufacturing industries and 0.8% in non-manufacturing industries (Table 5-1).
The forecast rate of change over the “next 3 years” was 0.8% in all industries, 0.2% inmanufacturing industries and 1.5% in non-manufacturing industries. Compared to the rate ofchange over the “past 3 years,” the increase rate was forecast to accelerate on an all industries
basis, turn positive in manufacturing industries and accelerate in non-manufacturing industries.
By sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), the rate of change was forecast to
rise in 20 out of 28 sectors, with high increase rates in “Pharmaceutical” (1.5%) and “Precision
Instruments” (1.3%) in manufacturing industries and “Real Estate” (3.8%) and “Other
Financing Business” (3.0%) in non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 5-6).
By capital size, the forecast growth rate at companies with a capital of “Less than 1 billion
yen” was 2.3%, “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” was 1.3%, “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” was
0.7% and “10 billion yen or more” was 0.3%. An increase was expected by all classes (Fig.
5-5).
Furthermore, when comparing the forecast rate of change in the number of regular employeeswith that in the total number of employees, the rate of change in the number of regular
employees was lower in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries (Fig. 5-5, Table
5-1).

- 32 -

[Fig. 5-5] Forecast rate of change in the number of regular employees among all employees
over the next 3 years by industry and capital size
By industry

By capital size

0.0

‐2.0

‐2.0

Non‐manufacturing

Processing‐type

Material‐type10 billion yen or more

0.0

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

2.0

Less than 1 billion yen

2.0

Other

4.0

Manufacturing

4.0

All industries

Employees
Of which, regular employees(%)

All industries(%)

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

Employees
Of which, regular employees

Note: “Next 3 years” represents rate of change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).

[Fig. 5-6] Forecast rate of change in the number of regular employees among all employees
over the next 3 years by sector
Employees
Of which, regular employees

(%)

6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Rubber ProductsElectric Power & Gas

Transportation Equipment

Foods

Pulp & Paper

Banks

Nonferrous Metals

Iron & SteelElectric Appliances

Other Products

Chemicals

Metal Products

Construction

Land Transportation

Textiles & Apparels

Glass & Ceramics Products

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Machinery

Securities & Commodity Futures

Wholesale Trade

Precision Instruments

Pharmaceutical

Services

Marine Transportation

Retail Trade

Information & Communication

Real Estate

Other Financing Business‐4.0

All industries‐2.0

Note 1: “Next 3 years” represents rate of change forecasts from FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average)
Note 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies for both “number of employees”
and “number of regular employees.”- 33 -

[Table 5-1] Trend in rate of change in the number of employees by industry(%)
Past 3 years
Survey year

All industries

Next 3 years

Manufacturing

Regularemployees

Non-manufacturing

Regularemployees

All industries

Regularemployees

Manufacturing

Regularemployees

Non-manufacturing

Regularemployees

Regularemployees

FY 1992

4.0

-

3.7

-

4.4

-

1.1

-

0.7

-

2.0

-

1993

2.6

-

1.9

-

3.8

-

-0.7

-

-1.5

-

0.9

-

1994

0.3

-

-0.5

-

1.7

-

-0.6

-

-1.2

-

0.6

-

1995

-0.8

-

-1.4

-

0.4

-

-0.6

-

-1.3

-

0.8

-

1996

-1.2

-

-2.1

-

0.4

-

-0.3

-

-1.0

-

0.9

-

1997

-1.3

-

-2.0

-

-0.1

-

-0.7

-

-1.1

-

-0.0

-

1998

-2.0

-

-2.9

-

-0.6

-

-2.3

-

-3.2

-

-1.0

-

1999

-2.5

-

-3.2

-

-1.4

-

-1.7

-

-2.4

-

-0.5

-

2000

-2.7

-

-4.0

-

-0.8

-

-0.6

-

-1.6

-

0.8

-

2001

-2.5

-

-3.6

-

-0.8

-

-1.9

-

-3.0

-

-0.3

-

2002

-3.0

-

-4.1

-

-1.4

-

-1.1

-

-1.7

-

-0.1

-

2003

-3.4

-

-4.2

-

-2.3

-

-0.8

-

-1.2

-

-0.3

-

2004

-1.8

-

-2.4

-

-1.1

-

0.8

-

0.4

-

1.4

-

2005

0.3

-0.8

0.2

-0.7

0.3

-0.9

1.9

1.3

1.4

0.8

2.5

1.8

2006

1.5

0.6

1.3

0.5

1.8

0.7

2.3

1.9

1.9

1.6

2.9

2.3

2007

2.5

1.8

2.2

1.3

2.8

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.1

1.9

3.1

2.9

2008

2.5

2.0

2.3

1.6

2.7

2.4

-0.2

0.1

-0.9

-0.3

0.7

0.6

2009

1.0

1.4

0.3

1.0

1.7

1.8

0.4

0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1.1

0.9

2010

0.0

0.2

-0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.5

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.5

1.4

1.1

2011

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

0.9

0.4

0.3

1.7

1.6

2012

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

1.1

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.3

0.2

1.8

1.5

Note 1: With regard to “past 3 years” and “next 3 years,” for example, “past 3 years” in the FY2012 survey represents rate ofchanges from FY2010 to FY2012 (fiscal year average), and “next 3 years” represents rate of change forecasts from
FY2013 to FY2015 (fiscal year average).
Note 2: The survey of the rate of change in the number of employees started in FY1992. The survey of “regular employees”
started in FY2005.
Note 3: Only the FY2003 survey represents figures for “regular employees.”(The FY2003 survey was for “regular
employees” and “part-time and temporary employees.”)- 34 -

6

Overseas production ratio and reverse imports ratio(1) The ratio of companies conducting overseas production (manufacturing industries only)○ The ratio of companies conducting overseas production (FY2011 actual figure) was 67.7%,
up 0.1% points from the previous year’s survey (67.6%).
○ “FY2012 estimate” (68.0%) and “FY2017 forecast” (71.1%) were also on a rising trend.

The ratio of companies that conduct overseas production (manufacturing industries only) was
67.7%, which represents an increase of 0.1% points from the previous year’s survey (67.6%).
Additionally, the “FY2012 estimate” was 68.0% and “FY2017 forecast” was 71.1%, whichwere both on a rising trend (Fig. 6-1, Table 6-1).

[Fig. 6-1] Ratio of companies that conduct overseas production (manufacturing industries)(%)

100
Manufacturing
Processing‐type

Material‐type
Other

80
71.1
67.7 68.0

60

40

20

2017

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

0
(FY)

Note: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years
represent the actual figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year.
(For example, the value for FY2011 is the ratio of companies that entered the value for “FY2011
actual figure” in the FY2012 survey.)- 35 -

[Table 6-1] Ratio of companies that conduct overseas production (manufacturing industries)(%)

Survey year

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

FY 1989

36.0

28.5

48.7

26.5

1990

40.3

32.0

53.9

29.3

1991

40.8

32.5

54.2

30.4

1992

43.3

37.9

55.5

30.2

1993

47.4

45.3

59.2

32.1

1994

48.3

43.7

60.2

36.1

1995

53.9

51.8

65.0

39.2

1996

55.9

53.4

66.0

42.6

1997

56.7

56.9

66.7

41.2

1998

58.3

59.7

67.9

42.6

1999

61.1

63.5

67.4

49.3

2000

60.4

62.1

67.3

48.9

2001

59.4

59.6

65.4

49.7

2002

62.1

62.3

69.1

51.4

2003

63.0

62.9

73.6

47.6

2004

59.6

58.4

69.8

45.2

2005

63.2

60.5

72.5

51.5

2006

65.9

63.6

73.2

56.2

2007

67.3

67.7

75.5

55.9

2008

67.1

66.7

74.9

55.5

2009

67.1

64.7

75.8

54.6

2010

67.6

67.8

76.6

51.8

2011

67.7

68.7

73.2

57.1

2012

68.0

71.2

73.1

56.3

2017

71.1

71.2

78.4

59.6

Note: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years represent the actual
figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year. (For example, the value for FY2011
is the ratio of companies that entered the value for “FY2011 actual figure” in the FY2012 survey.)- 36 -

(2) Overseas production ratio (manufacturing industries only)○ For overseas production ratio (actual value average), the “actual figure for FY2011” was
17.2%, representing a drop from the previous year’s actual figure (17.9%).
○ The “FY2012 estimate” (17.7%) and the “FY2017 forecast” (21.3%) were both expected tocontinue with the increasing trend. By manufacturing industry segment, the “FY2012
estimate” and “FY2017 forecast” of processing-type manufacturing industries (24.7% and29.1%, respectively) were high and the rise was high as well.
○ Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by sector, the figures were high in sectors such as“Precision Instruments” (35.8%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (32.3%), while they were low
in sectors such as “Pharmaceutical” (2.6%) and “Metal Products” (7.6%).

The “FY2011 actual figure” of overseas production ratio6) (actual value average) was 17.2%,
which represents a decline from the previous year’s actual figure (17.9%) but was the fifth
highest level since the beginning of the survey in 1987. Furthermore, the “FY2012 estimate” of
17.7% and “FY2017 forecast” of 21.3% both represent a forecast rise (Fig. 6-2, Table 6-2).
Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by manufacturing industry segment, material-type
manufacturing industries, processing-type manufacturing industries and other manufacturingindustries all saw a rise from the “FY2012 estimate”, with processing-type manufacturingindustries showing a large rise in particular (Fig. 6-3, Table 6-2).
The “FY2017 forecast” by sector (those with 5 or more responding companies) was higher
than the “FY2012 estimate” in 14 sectors out of 15, the exception being “Glass & Ceramics
Products” (10.3%). The forecast level was high in sectors such as “Precision Instruments”(35.8%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (32.3%) and low in “Pharmaceutical” (2.6%) and “Metal
Products” (7.6%) (Fig. 6-4).
Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by capital size, companies with a capital of “Less than 1billion yen” expects 5.8% (“FY2012 estimate”: 4.4%), “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” 15.9%(“FY2012 estimate”: 12.9%), “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” 24.9% (“FY2012 estimate”:
20.0%) and “10 billion yen or more” 26.8% (“FY2012 estimate”: 22.4%), which indicates thatthe ratio was expected to rise as compared to “FY2012 estimate” in all classes (Fig. 6-3).

6)Overseas production ratio = Volume of overseas production / (Volume of domestic production + Volume ofoverseas production)
Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.

- 37 -

[Fig. 6-2] Trend of overseas production ratios (manufacturing industries)(%)

50
Manufacturing
Processing‐type

Material‐type
Other

40

30
21.3
17.2 17.7

20

10

2017

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

0
(FY)

Note 1: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years
represent the actual figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year.
(For example, the value for FY2011 is the value for “FY2011 actual figure” in the FY2012
survey.)Note 2: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.

[Fig. 6-3] Overseas production ratio by manufacturing industry segment and capital size
By segment

By capital size

00Note: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.

- 38 -

10 billion yen or more

10

Less than 1 billion yen

10

Other

20

Processing‐type20

Material‐type

30

Manufacturing

30

Manufacturing

40

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

(%)

40

FY2011 actual figures
FY2012 estimate
FY2017 forecast(%)

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

FY2011 actual figures
FY2012 estimate
FY2017 forecast

[Fig. 6-4] Overseas production ratio by sector (manufacturing industries)(%)

FY2011 actual figures

FY2012 estimate

FY2017 forecast

40

30

20

Pharmaceutical

Metal Products

Iron & Steel

Foods

Pulp & Paper

Glass & Ceramics Products

Nonferrous Metals

Chemicals

Other Products

Rubber Products

MachineryTransportation Equipment

Electric Appliances

Precision Instruments

Textiles & Apparels

0

Manufacturing

10

Note 1: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.
Note 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies in all of “FY2011 actual
figure,” “FY2012 estimate” and “FY2017 forecast.”- 39 -

[Table 6-2] Trend of overseas production ratio (manufacturing industries)(%)

Survey year

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

FY 1989

3.8

2.2

5.7

2.8

1990

4.6

2.8

6.5

3.4

1991

4.6

3.1

6.7

3.0

1992

5.4

4.2

7.7

3.1

1993

6.1

5.1

8.7

3.4

1994

6.6

4.8

9.8

3.9

1995

8.1

6.4

12.2

3.7

1996

9.1

7.9

12.4

5.2

1997

9.3

7.7

12.8

5.6

1998

10.2

8.5

14.8

5.3

1999

10.5

8.9

14.7

6.0

2000

11.1

9.2

15.9

6.0

2001

13.7

11.7

18.9

7.5

2002

13.2

11.2

17.9

8.2

2003

13.1

9.7

19.4

6.8

2004

14.0

9.5

20.7

8.2

2005

15.2

10.8

22.1

9.4

2006

17.3

14.8

23.9

8.9

2007

17.3

15.3

24.8

8.9

2008

17.4

14.4

24.7

9.0

2009

17.1

12.9

24.0

9.9

2010

17.9

14.9

24.8

9.2

2011

17.2

14.3

24.1

8.6

2012

17.7

15.0

24.7

9.3

2017

21.3

19.1

29.1

11.4

Note 1: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years represent theactual figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year. (For example, the value for
FY2011 is the value for “FY2011 actual figure” in the FY2012 survey.)
Note 2: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.

- 40 -

(3) Reverse imports ratio (manufacturing industries only)○ The “FY2011 actual figure” for the reverse imports ratio (actual value average) was 19.8%,
which represents a decline for the fourth consecutive year and the lowest level since thebeginning of the survey in FY2001.
○ The “FY2012 actual figure” was estimated to rise (20.2%) while the “FY2017 forecast”
was estimated to decline (19.3%).
○ Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by sector, the level was low in sectors such as“Transportation Equipment” (5.7%) and “Machinery” (9.1%) and high in “Metal Products”(35.8%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (33.1%).

The “FY2011 actual figure” of the reverse imports ratio7) (actual value average) was 19.8%,
which represents a decline for the fourth consecutive year and the lowest level since thebeginning of the survey in FY2001. The “FY2012 estimate” was 20.2% and “FY2017 forecast”
19.3% (Fig. 6-5, Table 6-3).
Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by manufacturing industry segment, the ratio inmaterial-type manufacturing industries was 18.0%, processing-type manufacturing industries
was 17.7% and other manufacturing industries 23.9%. The ratio in processing-type
manufacturing industries was the lowest since the survey started (Fig. 6-6, Table 6-3).
In terms of the “FY2017 forecast” by sector (those with 5 or more responding companies), 7
out of 11 sectors expect the reverse imports ratio to drop from the “FY2012 estimate”, with thelevel low in sectors such as “Transportation Equipment” (5.7%) and “Machinery” (9.1%) andhigh in sectors including “Metal Products” (35.8%) and “Textiles & Apparels” (33.1%) (Fig.
6-7).
Looking at the “FY2017 forecast” by capital size, companies with a capital of “Less than 1billion yen” expects 9.7% (“FY2012 estimate”: 16.5%), “1 to 5 billion yen (not incl.)” 24.1%(“FY2012 estimate”: 27.7%), “5 to 10 billion yen (not incl.)” 18.4% (“FY2012 estimate”:
20.1%) and “10 billion yen or more” 17.1% (“FY2012 estimate”: 16.2%), which indicates thatthe ratio was expected to drop as compared to “FY2012 estimate” in all classes except for the“10 billion yen or more” class (Fig. 6-6).

7)

Reverse imports ratio = Export volume to Japan / Volume of overseas local production
Excludes companies that reported 0.0% in overseas production ratio.
Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% in the ratio of reverse imports.

- 41 -

[Fig. 6-5] Trend of the ratio of reverse imports (manufacturing industries)(%)

50
Manufacturing
Processing‐type

Material‐type
Other

40

30
19.8 20.2

20

19.3

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017 (FY)

Note 1: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years
represent the actual figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year.
(For example, the value for FY2011 is the value for “FY2011 actual figure” in the FY2012
survey.)Note 2: Excludes companies that reported 0.0% in overseas production ratio.
Note 3: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% in the ratio of reverse
imports.
Note 4: The survey of the ratio of reverse imports started in FY2001.

[Fig. 6-6] Ratio of reverse imports by manufacturing industry segment and capital size
By segment

By capital size

10

0

0

Note 1: Excludes companies that reported 0.0% in overseas production ratio.
Note 2: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% in the ratio ofreverse imports.

- 42 -

10 billion yen or more

10

5 to 10 billion yen(not incl.)

20

Less than 1 billion yen

20

Manufacturing

30

Other

30

Processing‐type40

Material‐type

40

Manufacturing

FY2011 actual figures
FY2012 estimate
FY2017 forecast(%)

1 to 5 billion yen(not incl.)

FY2011 actual figures
FY2012 estimate
FY2017 forecast(%)

FY2011 actual figures

FY2012 estimate

Nonferrous Metals(%)

Textiles & Apparels[Fig. 6-7] Ratio of reverse imports by sector (manufacturing industries)
FY2017 forecast

50
40
30
20

Iron & SteelTransportation Equipment

Machinery

Chemicals

Foods

Precision Instruments

Electric Appliances

Other Products

Metal Products0

Manufacturing

10

Note 1: Excludes companies that reported 0.0% in overseas production ratio.
Note 2: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% in the ratio ofreverse imports.
Note 3: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies in all of “FY2011 actual
figure,” “FY2012 estimate” and “FY2017 forecast.”- 43 -

[Table 6-3] Trend of the ratio of reverse imports (manufacturing industries)(%)

Survey year

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

FY 2000

22.9

21.7

22.5

25.1

2001

24.4

22.9

24.3

26.1

2002

24.4

27.3

21.8

26.4

2003

24.3

20.3

24.9

27.8

2004

22.6

19.6

23.4

24.8

2005

26.1

23.2

25.3

31.6

2006

23.9

19.2

25.4

26.7

2007

25.2

23.4

25.4

26.8

2008

24.5

20.3

22.1

35.1

2009

22.6

13.9

22.7

33.9

2010

21.3

16.4

20.4

30.5

2011

19.8

15.2

19.8

25.6

2012

20.2

16.8

19.3

26.8

2017

19.3

18.0

17.7

23.9

Note 1: FY2012 represents the actual figure estimate, FY2017 represents the forecast, and other years represent theactual figure for the previous fiscal year in the survey for the following fiscal year. (For example, the value for
FY2011 is the value for “FY2011 actual figure” in the FY2012 survey.)
Note 2: Excludes companies that reported 0.0% in overseas production ratio.
Note 3: Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% in the ratio of reverse imports.
Note 4: The survey of the ratio of reverse imports started in FY2001.

- 44 -

(4) Reason for having an overseas production base (manufacturing industries only)○ The most commonly cited reason for setting up production bases abroad was, “Strong
demand exists, or demand is forecast to expand, for our products in the local market(s) andmarkets in neighboring countries” (45.8%), which represents a 2.9% point rise from theprevious year’s survey (42.9%).
○ On the other hand, the composition ratio of reasons including “We can enjoy low costs ofmaterials, overall production processes, distributions, and land/buildings” (9.1%) declined.

Looking at the reason for having an overseas production base (choose one from the choices),“Strong demand exists, or demand is forecast to expand, for our products in the local market(s)and markets in neighboring countries” was the most commonly cited with 45.8% (previous
year’s result: 42.9%), followed by “Labor costs are low” with 23.1% (previous year’s result:
23.0%), “We can cater effectively to overseas users’ needs” with 11.4% (previous year’s result:
11.8%), “We can enjoy low costs of materials, overall production processes, distribution, andland/buildings” with 9.1% (previous year’s result: 10.9%) and “We have entered the overseas
market(s) following entry by our parent company or customer(s) and so on” with 5.5%
(previous year’s result: 6.5%) (Fig. 6-8, Table 6-4).
Compared to the previous year’s survey, while the composition ratio of reasons such as “We
can enjoy low costs of materials, overall production processes, distributions, andland/buildings” and “We have entered the overseas market(s) following entry by our parent
company or customer(s) and so on” was decreasing, the composition ratio of reasons such as“Strong demand exists, or demand is forecast to expand, for our products in the local market(s)and markets in neighboring countries” was rising.

- 45 -

[Fig. 6-8] Reason for having an overseas production base (manufacturing industries)
0%

Manufacturing

20%

①

40%

③

60%

④

80%

100%

⑦

⑤
⑥

Material‐type

Processing‐type

Other① La bor cos ts a re l ow
② We can easily s ecure highly‐qualified personnel (technical and research staff)③ We can enjoy l ow costs of materials, overall producti on processes, distributions, a nd land/buildings④ Strong demand exists, or demand i s forecast to expand, for our products i n the local ma rket(s) and markets innei ghboring countries⑤ We can cater effectively to overs eas users’ needs⑥ We have contracts with reliable s uppliers of parts and/or ra w materials to the l ocal facilities in a s tablema nner⑦ We have entered the overseas market(s) following entry by our pa rent company or cus tomer(s) and s o on
⑧ We ta ke adva ntage of industrial development programs including fa vorable ta xation and/or fi nancing which
are offered by the local government(s)⑨ Ina dequate infrastructure i n the local country i n question had prevented us from s etting up opera tions there,
but thi s issue has now been addressed⑩ Other- 46 -⑩

[Table 6-4] Reason for having an overseas production base (manufacturing industries)(%)

FY2011surveyFY2012 survey

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processingtype

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

23.1

16.5

27.5

21.4

23.0

-

-

-

-

0.3

③ We can enjoy low costs of materials, overall production
processes, distributions, and land/buildings

9.1

8.2

9.8

8.6

10.9

④ Strong demand exists, or demand is forecast to expand,for our products in the local market(s) and markets inneighboring countries

45.8

60.0

35.9

50.0

42.9

⑤ We can cater effectively to overseas users’ needs

11.4

8.2

15.0

7.1

11.8

⑥ We have contracts with reliable suppliers of parts
and/or raw materials to the local facilities in a stablemanner

2.6

2.4

1.3

5.7

1.9

⑦ We have entered the overseas market(s) following entry
by our parent company or customer(s) and so on

5.5

3.5

7.2

4.3

6.5

⑧ We take advantage of industrial development programs
including favorable taxation and/or financing which areoffered by the local government(s)

-

-

-

-

0.3

⑨ Inadequate infrastructure in the local country inquestion had prevented us from setting up operations
there, but this issue has now been addressed

-

-

-

-

-

2.6

1.2

3.3

2.9

2.5

Reason for having an overseas production base

① Labor costs are low② We can easily secure highly-qualified personnel(technical and research staff)⑩ Other

Note: Highlighted sections represent the top 3 in each fiscal year.

- 47 -

Other