EUROPEAN UNION AGENCY
FOR CYBERSECURITY

FORESIGHTCYBERSECURITY
THREATS FOR 2030 –UPDATE
Executive Summary
MARCH 2024
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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

ABOUT ENISA
The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, ENISA, is the Union’s agency dedicated toachieving a high common level of cybersecurity across Europe. Established in 2004 andstrengthened by the EU Cybersecurity Act, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity
contributes to EU cyber policy, enhances the trustworthiness of ICT products, services andprocesses with cybersecurity certification schemes, cooperates with Member States and EU
bodies, and helps Europe prepare for the cyber challenges of tomorrow. Through knowledge
sharing, capacity building and awareness raising, the Agency works together with its key
stakeholders to strengthen trust in the connected economy, to boost resilience of the Union’s
infrastructure, and, ultimately, to keep Europe’s society and citizens digitally secure. Moreinformation about ENISA and its work can be found here: www.enisa.europa.eu.

CONTACTFor contacting the authors please use foresight@enisa.europa.eu’
For media enquiries about this paper, please use press@enisa.europa.eu.

AUTHORS

Rossella Mattioli, Apostolos Malatras, - ENISA, 4CF, PWC

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSENISA’s Ad-Hoc Working Group on Foresight on Emerging and Future Cybersecurity
Challenges, ENISA Advisory Group, ENISA National Liaison Officers Network and experts fromthe CSIRTs Network and EU CyCLONe who participated in the workshops and provided
feedback.

LEGAL NOTICEThis publication represents the views and interpretations of ENISA, unless stated otherwise. It
does not endorse a regulatory obligation of ENISA or of ENISA bodies pursuant to theRegulation (EU) No 2019/881.
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COPYRIGHT NOTICE© European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), 2024
This publication is licenced under CC-BY 4.0 “Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of thisdocument is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed,
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permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.

2FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION

4

2. OBJECTIVES

5

3. METHODOLOGY

6

4. THREATS

7

5. TRENDS

10

6. SCENARIOS

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

1. INTRODUCTION
The “ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030” study represents a comprehensive
analysis and assessment of emerging cybersecurity threats projected for the year 2030. This
collaborative endeavour, spearheaded by European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA),
has employed a structured and multidimensional methodology to assess, forecast, and prioritise
potential threats. It was firstly published in 2022, and the current report is its second iteration
which reassesses the previously identified top ten threats and respective trends whilst exploring
the developments over the course of a year. The assessment yields key findings that shed lighton the evolving nature of the cybersecurity landscape:Dynamic Threat Landscape:• The analysis underscores the rapid evolution of the threat landscape, marked by dynamic
attack vectors. Threat actors, including advanced persistent threats, nation-state actors, andsophisticated cybercriminal organizations, continue to adapt and refine their tactics.
Technology-Driven Challenges:• The adoption of emerging technologies introduces both opportunities and vulnerabilities. This
dual nature of technological advancements necessitates proactive cybersecurity measures toaddress potential risks associated with their adoption.
Impact of Emerging Technologies:• Quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) emerge as key factors impacting the threat
landscape. While these technologies offer significant opportunities, they also introduce
vulnerabilities that malicious actors may exploit. The report emphasizes the importance ofunderstanding and mitigating these risks.
Increased Complexity:• The assessment reveals that the threat landscape is becoming more complex, requiring a
sophisticated understanding of evolving tactics and strategies employed by threat actors. This
complexity underscores the need for advanced cybersecurity measures.

The “ENISA
Foresight
Cybersecurity
Threats for 2030”
study represents
a comprehensive
analysis andassessment ofemerging
cybersecurity
threats projected
for the year 2030.

Proactive Cybersecurity Measures:• Organizations and policymakers are encouraged to adopt proactive cybersecurity measures tofortify their cybersecurity posture. Understanding the evolving threat landscape and being
prepared to address emerging challenges is crucial for building resilience in the digital
environment.
Forward-Looking Perspective:• The review of the "ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030" is grounded in a rigorous
methodology and expert collaboration. The forward-looking perspective provided in the reportoffers valuable insights and recommendations for stakeholders to prepare for and counteremerging threats.
Resilient Digital Environment:• By embracing the insights and recommendations from the report, organizations andpolicymakers can enhance their cybersecurity strategies. This proactive approach aims toensure a resilient digital environment not only in the year 2030 but also in the evolving
landscape beyond.

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

2. OBJECTIVESThe exercise serves as a strategic initiative to assess, validate, and enhance the ENISA
Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030. By leveraging input from experts and stakeholders,the exercise supports evidence-based decision-making, strengthens ENISA's strategic
objectives, and contributes to ongoing efforts to address emerging cybersecurity challenges.
The exercise has encompassed two steps: (1) a Delphi survey focusing on threats from thereport (Chapter 3), and (2) a workshop focusing on the trends as well as scenarios, both ofwhich were organised in October 2023. The workshop aimed to provide a structured and criticalassessment of the ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030, ensuring its relevance andaccuracy in the face of evolving cybersecurity challenges.
The exercise aligns with ENISA's sixth strategic objective. By reviewing and assessing theforesight report, it contributes to a deeper understanding of cybersecurity threats, serving as abasis for awareness activities, and ensuring that stakeholders have a sense of ownership in the
cybersecurity initiatives driven by ENISA. This comprehensive approach reflects a commitment
to strengthening cybersecurity practices and resilience in the evolving digital landscape.
The target audience of the exercise were stakeholders from the cybersecurity domain including
national cybersecurity authorities, national and EU decision makers, experts, and practitioners
forming Ad-Hoc Working Group on Foresight on Emerging and Future Cybersecurity
Challenges.

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3. METHODOLOGY
The methodology employed for the review of the ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for2030 involved a combination of the Real-Time Delphi survey technique and a thematic
workshop to ensure a thorough and validated review process.
The Delphi technique, a structured and iterative method, was used to gather collective forecasts
and expert opinions on likely or possible developments in cybersecurity. 33 experts wereinvited, and 24 participated in the survey that involved multiple rounds of questionnaires,
feedback, and refinement to converge opinions or identify potential developments.
The online workshop, held on October 12, 2023, gathered 10 experts and practitioners. It
consisted of two parts: a session reviewing 2030 trends (Chapter 4) and a review of scenarios
based on the outcomes of previous steps.
To ensure a quality review, a validation process of the report was conducted, involving theexpertise of the Ad hoc Working Group on Foresight for Emerging and Future Cybersecurity
Challenges, consultation with the ENISA National Liaison Officers network, and input from theAdvisory Group composed of experts from industry, academia, business, and consumer groups.

The methodology
employed for thereview of the ENISA
Foresight
Cybersecurity Threatsfor 2030 involved a
combination of theReal-Time Delphi
survey technique anda thematic workshop
to ensure a thoroughand validated review
process.

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

4. THREATS
The real-time Delphi survey, conducted online with the participation of 24 experts, led to therevision of the top ten cybersecurity threats. The experts contributed assessments regarding theimpact and likelihood of various threats, providing a comprehensive view of the cybersecurity
landscape. The revised top ten list was formulated based on the multiplication of impact andlikelihood scores assigned by the participating experts:
1. Supply Chain Compromise of Software Dependencies
2. Skill Shortage
3. Human Error and Exploited Legacy Systems Within Cyber-Physical Ecosystems
4. Exploitation of Unpatched and Out-of-date Systems within the Overwhelmed Cross-sector Tech
Ecosystem [New in Top Ten]
5. Rise of Digital Surveillance Authoritarianism / Loss of Privacy
6. Cross-border ICT Service Providers as a Single Point of Failure
7. Advanced Disinformation / Influence Operations (IO) Campaigns
8. Rise of Advanced Hybrid Threats
9. Abuse of AI
10. Physical Impact of Natural/Environmental Disruptions on Critical Digital Infrastructure [New in Top Ten]

Table 1: New prioritisation of threats

THREAT

IMPACT * LIKELIHOODIMPACT

LIKELIHOOD

1.

Supply Chain Compromise of Software
Dependencies

17,71

4,21

4,21

2.

Skill Shortage

17,20

4,10

4,20

3.

Human Error and Exploited Legacy Systems
within Cyber-Physical Ecosystems

16,69

3,96

4,22

4.

Exploitation of Unpatched and Out-of-date
Systems within the Overwhelmed Crosssector Tech Ecosystem [Optional]

16,21

4,05

4,00

5.

Rise of Digital Surveillance Authoritarianism/ Loss of Privacy

15,34

3,96

3,88

6.

Cross-border ICT Service Providers as Single
Point of Failure

15,12

4,14

3,65

7.

Advanced Disinformation / Influence
Operations (IO) Campaigns

14,38

3,42

4,21

8.

Rise of Advanced Hybrid Threats

14,03

3,68

3,81

9.

Abuse of AI

13,22

3,43

3,86

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

10.

Physical Impact of Natural/Environmental
Disruptions on Critical Digital Infrastructure[Optional]

12,99

3,68

3,53

11.

Lack of Analysis and Control of Space-based
Infrastructure and Objects

12,52

3,63

3,45

12.

Targeted Attacks (e.g. Ransomware)
Enhanced by Smart Device Data

12,29

3,39

3,63

13.

Increased Digital Currency-enabled
Cybercrime [Optional]

10,25

3,06

3,35

14.

Manipulation of Systems Necessary for
Emergency Response [Optional]

10,02

3,27

3,07

15.

Tampering with Deepfake Verification
Software Supply Chain [Optional]

9,83

3,00

3,28

16.

AI Disrupting/Enhancing Cyber Attacks[Optional]

9,78

3,07

3,19

17.

Malware Insertion to Disrupt Food
Production Supply Chain [Optional]

9,33

3,11

3,00

18.

Exploitation of E-health (and Genetic) Data
[Optional]

9,32

3,11

3,00

19.

Attacks Using Quantum Computing[Optional]

7,32

2,76

2,65

20.

Disruptions in Public Blockchains [Optional]

5,96

2,47

2,41

21.

Technological Incompatibility of Blockchain
Technologies [Optional]

5,91

2,25

2,63

Key takeaways from the review of cybersecurity threats, based on the Delphi survey, highlightthe dynamic nature of the threat landscape, and shifts in experts' perceptions between 2022
and 2023:
Continued Significance of Threats:• Threats such as "Supply Chain Compromise of Software Dependencies" and "Advanced
Disinformation/Influence Operations (IO) Campaigns" remain significant, despite experiencing
slight declines in perceived prominence. These threats continue to pose substantial risks tocybersecurity.
Shifts in Perceived Impact and Likelihood:• "Rise Of Digital Surveillance Authoritarianism/Loss of Privacy" shows a slight decline in both
impact and likelihood, indicating a nuanced perspective on the long-term implications of digitalsurveillance practices.
Intensification of Long-Term Threat Perspectives:• Threats like "Skill Shortage" and "Cross-border ICT Service Providers as a Single Point ofFailure" have somewhat intensified in experts' perception. This suggests a growing
recognition of the long-term challenges posed by these factors.
AI-Related Threats Gain Likelihood:• "Abuse of AI" and "AI Disrupting/Enhancing Cyber Attacks" have gained likelihood. This aligns
with the increasing coverage of AI applications at scale and the ethical considerations
surrounding AI use. Concerns about public over-reliance on AI and the potential blind spots
introduced by probabilistic threat detection methods are highlighted.

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Exclusions from Top 10:• "Lack of Analysis and Control of Space-based Infrastructure and Objects" and "Targeted
Attacks Enhanced by Smart Device Data" were excluded from the top 10 threats. Thissuggests a reassessment of their immediate impact compared to other emerging threats.
New Entrants in Top 10:• "Exploitation of Unpatched and Out-of-date Systems Within the Overwhelmed Cross-sector
Tech Ecosystem" and "Physical Impact of Natural/Environmental Disruptions on Critical Digital
Infrastructure" moved up from lower positions to be included in the revised top 10. This
reflects a heightened awareness of the vulnerabilities associated with outdated systems andthe potential physical impact of environmental disruptions on digital infrastructure.
Table 2: Evolution of threat assessments

THREAT

IMPACT
2022

LIKELIHOOD
2022

IMPACT
2023

LIKELIHOOD
2023

CHANGEIMPACT

CHANGE
LIKELIHOOD

IMP*LIKELIHOOD

1.

Supply Chain
Compromise of
SoftwareDependencies

5

5

4,21

4,21

-0,79

-0,79

17,71▼

2.

Skill Shortages

4

4

4,10

4,20

0,20

0,20

17,20▲

4

5

3,96

4,22

-0,78

-0,78

16,69▼

4

5

3,96

3,88

-1,13

-1,13

15,34▼

5

3

4,14

3,65

0,65

0,65

15,12▲

4

5

3,42

4,21

-0,79

-0,79

14,38▼

4

4

3,68

3,81

-0,19

-0,19

14,03▼

4

3

3,43

3,86

0,86

0,86

13,22▲

4

4

3,63

3,45

-0,55

-0,55

12,52▼

4

4

3,39

3,63

-0,38

-0,38

12,29▼

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.
8.

9.

10.

Human Errorand Exploited
Legacy Systems
within CyberPhysical
Ecosystems
Rise of Digital
Surveillance
Authoritarianism/ Loss ofPrivacy
Cross-border
ICT Service
Providers as aSingle Point ofFailureAdvanced
Disinformation /Influence
Operations (IO)
Campaigns
Rise of
Advanced
Hybrid Threats
Abuse of AI
Lack of Analysis
and Control ofSpace-based
Infrastructure
and Objects
Targeted
Attacks (e.g.
Ransomware)
Enhanced by
Smart Device
Data

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

5. TRENDS
The workshop focused on nine trends susceptible to change by 2030, with participants
discussing the potential alterations and impact on cybersecurity:• Political trends:
o Increased political power of non-state actors; ando The increasing relevance of (cyber) security in elections.
• Economic trends:o Collecting and analysing data to assess user behaviour is increasing, especially in theprivate sector; ando Increasing reliance on outsourced IT Services.
• Social trends:
o Decision-making is increasingly based on automated analysis of data.
• Technological trends:
o The number of satellites in space is increasing and thus our dependency on satellites;ando Vehicles are becoming increasingly connected to each other and to the outside world
and less reliant on human operation.
• Environmental trends:
o The increasing energy consumption of digital infrastructure.
• Legal trends:
o The capacity to control data about oneself (individual, company, or state) is becoming
more desirable and more technically difficult.

The trend of theincreased politicalpower of nonstate actors ischaracterised by
the anticipationthat global
interconnectedne
ss will accelerate.

Participants used the 4CF Stranger Futures workshop method to discuss these trends. All
trends, except one (Decision-making based on automated analysis of data), were rated as
speeding up beyond their originally presented dynamics in the ENISA 2030 Threats Foresight
Report. There was ambiguity about the speed of evolution in the social trend, and experts
couldn't reach a consensus on whether it is moving faster or slower.
Experts expressed concerns about how these trends might impact cybersecurity, and someanticipated the need for specific EU regulations to address their negative influences. The
evolving nature of these trends adds complexity to the cybersecurity landscape, requiring
proactive measures to address emerging challenges.
The trend of the increased political power of non-state actors is characterised by the
anticipation that global interconnectedness will accelerate, fostering interactions among nonstate actors at a pace that may surpass the regulatory capacity of nation-states. This
acceleration is expected to result in a diminishing influence of traditional nation-states,
particularly in their ability to control and regulate these evolving forms of interactions. While thetrend points towards an increase in the political power of non-state actors, there are nuanced
perspectives. Positive elements include state initiatives to assert control, and cyber diplomacy isseen as a mitigating force against potential adverse consequences. The evolving landscapeemphasizes the need for diplomatic and regulatory strategies to address the challenges posedby increased non-state actor influence.
The trend of collecting and analysing data to assess user behaviour is experiencing asignificant increase, particularly in the private sector. This trend involves leveraging data for
automated decision-making processes, primarily focused on improving customer targeting andreducing operational costs. The increasing digitalization of various aspects of life andadvancements in AI algorithms contribute to the growth of this trend. While this trend presents
significant opportunities, experts highlight the importance of addressing inherent challenges.

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These include the need for accurate and context-aware analysis, addressing biases inbehavioural profiling, acknowledging the potential limitations of data-driven models, andconsidering the adaptability of individuals in shaping the outcomes of behavioural analysis.
While the trend of decision-making relying on automated data analysis holds significant
potential, experts emphasize the need to address associated pitfalls. These include concerns
about data quality, the changing dynamics of decision-making, the balance between quantifiable
metrics and optimal decisions, and the potential lack of accountability in the face of suboptimal
outcomes.
While the increasing number of satellites opens up new possibilities for technology andexploration, it also brings about challenges concerns. These include the need for regulatory
frameworks, addressing space traffic and ecological impacts, coordinating satellite operations,and enhancing cybersecurity measures to safeguard satellite infrastructure.
The trend of controlling personal data reflects a multifaceted landscape influenced by various
factors such as technological advancements, societal priorities, regulatory frameworks, andindividual awareness. Addressing the challenges and complexities regarding data control
requires a nuanced approach that considers the evolving nature of the digital ecosystem.
The trend of increasing energy consumption in digital infrastructure reflects a balance
between technological advancements, efforts towards energy efficiency, regulatory landscapes,
and uncertainties about future breakthroughs. The dynamic nature of this trend necessitates
ongoing monitoring and adaptability to address emerging challenges and opportunities.

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FORESIGHT CYBERSECURITY THREATS FOR 2030 – UPDATETLP Clear | March 2024

6. SCENARIOSThe experts involved in the scenario analysis of the ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for2030 have articulated the need for a more nuanced exploration of technological advancements.
Their concerns revolve around key thematic areas, emphasizing the importance of addressing
trust, privacy, technology misuse, and environmental impacts. They call for specific scenarios
addressing water and raw-materials scarcity leading to the collapse of hardware value chains,
ethical dilemmas in data-driven decision-making, decentralisation in energy generation, and therole of space technologies in dependencies and vulnerabilities.

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ABOUT ENISA
The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, ENISA, is the Union’s agency dedicated toachieving a high common level of cybersecurity across Europe. Established in 2004 andstrengthened by the EU Cybersecurity Act, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity
contributes to EU cyber policy, enhances the trustworthiness of ICT products, services andprocesses with cybersecurity certification schemes, cooperates with Member States and EU
bodies, and helps Europe prepare for the cyber challenges of tomorrow. Throughknowledge sharing, capacity building and awareness raising, the Agency works together
with its key stakeholders to strengthen trust in the connected economy, to boost resilienceof the Union’s infrastructure, and, ultimately, to keep Europe’s society and citizens digitally
secure. More information about ENISA and its work can be found here:
www.enisa.europa.eu.