PartⅢ

COVID-19 Chronology

280Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

Table of Contents
1. COVID-19 situation around the world............................................................ 281
2. COVID-19 situation in Japan............................................................................ 283
3. COVID-19 situation in Kansai.......................................................................... 285
4. Anti-COVID-19 measures in Japan.................................................................. 288(1)Border restrictions................................................................................... 288(2)States of emergency timeline.................................................................. 289
5. COVID-19 vaccinations..................................................................................... 293(1)Situation around the world...................................................................... 293(2)Situation in Japan and Kansai.................................................................. 295
6. Japan’s fiscal policy........................................................................................... 297
7. Japan’s monetary policy................................................................................... 301
8. US fiscal and monetary policies...................................................................... 302
9. EU fiscal and monetary policies...................................................................... 303
Editing of the “COVID-19 Chronology”
・The “COVID-19 Chronology” has been authored by APIR’s Chronology team.
・In this report, the number of infections reflects the number of positive PCR
test results.
・We have used the COVID-19 epidemiological dataset provided by the “OurWorld in Data” website, which has been compiled based on official reports
from various governments, the World Health Organization (WHO), and Johns
Hopkins University (JHU).
・Unless otherwise indicated, Japan-related data has been obtained mainly fromthe “Visualizing the data: information on COVID-19 infections” (Ministryof Health, Labor and Welfare), and from the “Novel Coronavirus Vaccines”(Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet) webpages. Our data may differ
from that published on the websites of Japanese prefectures and media organizations.
・Japan population data was obtained from the “Basic resident registration by
age group and municipality (2021).”・Unless otherwise indicated, the data provided below was last updated on November 30, 2021.

COVID-19 Chronology

281（ten thousands）
40

Part Ⅱ
Part Ⅲ〇 As of November 30, 2021, the total number of COVID-19 infections had exceeded 262 million worldwide, while the total number of deaths was morethan 5.2 million.
〇 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continued to revise downward its
forecast for the world economy in 2021, from 5.8% in April 2020 to 5.4% in June
2020, and 5.2% in October 2020. However, the forecast was revised upward to
6.0% in April 2021, partly due to improved vaccination prospects. In October
2021, IMF lowered its forecast again to 5.9% due to concerns about the resurgence in the number of new COVID-19 infections.
〇 The weekly average of the number of new COVID-19 infections in the USA
surged starting with the end of October 2020 and peaked at the beginningof January 2021. In India, the virus spread rapidly starting with April 2021.
Despite a temporary slowdown, the USA experienced a new COVID-19 surge
caused by the new Delta variant starting with August (Figure 1).
〇 On the other hand, judging by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per
million people, the situation was more severe in European countries such as
the UK and France, and Asian countries such as Singapore or Israel than in
the USA or India (Figure 2).

Part Ⅰ

1. COVID-19 situation around the world

Part Ⅳ

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1/28 2/28 3/28 4/28 5/28 6/28 7/28 8/28 9/28 10/28 11/28 12/28 1/28 2/28 3/31 4/30 5/31 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/30 10/3111/30
2020
2021
Japan
Italy
BrazilFigure 1

United Kingdom
United States
United Arab Emirates

Germany
India
Spain

FranceIsraelSingapore

The number of new infections in countries around the world

Note: weekly moving average
Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data.

282Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology（person）
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1/28 2/28 3/28 4/28 5/28 6/28 7/28 8/28 9/28 10/2811/2812/28 1/28 2/28 3/31 4/30 5/31 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/30 10/3111/30
2020
2021
Japan
Italy
BrazilFigure 2

United Kingdom
United States
Spain

Germany
India

Singapore

FranceIsraelUnited Arab Emirates

Number of new infections per million people

Note: Weekly moving average.
Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data.

（ten thousands）
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1/28 2/28 3/28 4/28 5/28 6/28 7/28 8/28 9/28 10/28 11/2812/28 1/28 2/28 3/31 4/30 5/31 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/30 10/3111/30
2020
2021
Japan

Croatia

Figure 3

United Kingdom
Czechia

Germany

Netherlands

FranceHungary

Belgium

Slovenia

Number of new infections per million people: Europe

Note: Weekly moving average.
Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data.

〇 In Europe, starting with November 2021 the virus spread rapidly, particularly
in Germany. On November 25 Slovakia imposed a two-week lockdown, while
Czechia declared a 30-day state of emergency (Figure 3).
〇 In April 2020, the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Europe amounted
to approximately 70% of the worldwide total, but in June the number of deaths

COVID-19 Chronology

283

started to increase in both North and South America. In November 2020 thenumber started to surge in Europe and North America, and April 2021 inSouth America and Asia. As already mentioned, since November 2021, thenumber of deaths is on an upward trend in Europe. Although vaccination has
started worldwide and is expected to limit the number of deaths, the worldwide total is still around 7,000 per day (Figure 4).
（ten thousands）
1.6
1.4
1.2

0.4
0.2
0
1/22 2/22 3/22 4/22 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/2211/2212/22 1/22 2/22 3/22 4/22 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/2211/22
2020
2021
Asia

Figure 4

North America

South America

EuropeAfricaOceania

Part Ⅱ

0.6

Part Ⅰ

1
0.8

Number of new deaths worldwide by region〇 In April 2021, the number of new COVID-19 cases in Kansai expanded rapidly(the fourth wave). On the 25th of the same month, the third state of emergency was imposed, and as a result the number of infected topped out in late June.
However, in July, the virus resurged in Kanto (the fifth wave). On July 12, thegovernment imposed the state of emergency for the fourth time, and on August 13, the daily number of infected people exceeded 20,000. In September,the number of infections began to decrease, and the state of emergency waslifted nationwide on September 30 (Figure 5) (for details regarding the statesof emergency, see Section 4-2 below).
〇 The number of severe cases was larger during the fourth state of emergency than during the third one (Figure 6). On the other hand, the number ofdeaths during the fourth state of emergency increased at a slower pace thanduring the second and third states of emergency.

Part Ⅳ

2. COVID-19 situation in Japan

Part Ⅲ

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data.

284Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology（persons）
30,00021/8/13, Number of newly
infected people exceeds
20,000 for the ﬁrst time

25,00021/7/12,Declaration of 4th state of
emergency（ﬁfth wave）

20,00021/4/25
20/8/2
Declaration of 3rd state ofPeak of second wave
emergency（fourth
wave）
Number of new cases: 1,991

15,0005,000

021/1/8Declaration of
2nd state of
emergency(third wave)

2020/4/7
Declaration of 1ststate ofemergency
Total number ofcases: 4,168

21/9/30,
4th state of
emergency
is lifted

1/12
2/2
2/23
3/15
4/5
4/26
5/17
6/7
6/28
7/19
8/9
8/30
9/20
10/11
11/1
11/22
12/13
1/3
1/24
2/14
3/7
3/28
4/18
5/9
5/30
6/20
7/11
8/1
8/22
9/12
10/3
10/24
11/14

10,0002020

2021
Hokkaido
Chugoku

Figure 5

TohokuShikoku

Kanto
KyusyuChubu
Okinawa

KansaiNumber of new COVID-19 infection cases (by region)

Note: The increase in Kanto on Oct 29 was due to a correction in the number of infected people in Tokyo.
Source: Based on data published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

1st state of emergency
2nd
3rd
4th
（persons） 4/7 ～ 5/25
（persons）
1/8 ～ 3/21
4/25 ～ 7/11 7/12 ～ 9/30
2,400
250
2,200
2,000
200
1,800
1,600
150
1,400
1,200
1,000
100
800
600
50
400
200
0
0
2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1
2020
2021
Left axis: severe cases:

Figure 6

Right axis: deaths

Number of new severe cases and new deaths in Japan

Note: The shadowed part covers the state of emergency periods.
Source: Based on data published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare

COVID-19 Chronology

285Part Ⅱ
Part ⅢPart Ⅳ〇 Since the second COVID-19 wave, Osaka Prefecture reported an overall
higher number of infections per 100,000 people than the rest of the country.
During the fifth wave, Shiga Prefecture faced a surge in the number of cases, which prompted the authorities to declare the fourth state of emergency(Figure 7).
〇 In Kansai, the “reproduction number” of COVID-19, which represents thenumber of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period, peaked at 1.81 on April 1, 2021. After that, it dropped to 0.67 on
May 29 as a result of the semi-state of emergency and the third state of emergency. However, it rebounded to 1.00 on June 29, and then surged to 1.82 on
August 1. After the fourth state of emergency was imposed, the reproduction
number dropped again to 0.66 on September 17 (Figure 8).
〇 During the third state of emergency, the occupancy rate of hospital beds forsevere COVID-19 cases rose to 103.0% in Osaka Prefecture, 83.0% in Hyogo,
and 91.0% in Nara. After a downward tendency since the middle of June, thenumber of new infections resurged in July. During the fourth state of emergency, the hospital bed occupancy rate in Kyoto Prefecture peaked at 75.9%,
straining the healthcare system (Figure 9).
〇 As shown in Figure 9, during the fourth state of emergency, the hospital bed
occupancy rate was not as high as the during the previous state of emergency in the case of patients with severe symptoms. However, on August 30 itincreased to 90.0% in the case of patients with mild to moderate symptoms,
maintaining the pressure on the healthcare system (Figure 10).

Part Ⅰ

3. COVID-19 situation in Kansai

286Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology（persons）
250
200
150
100
50
0
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1
2020
2021
Nationwide
Hyogo

Figure 7

Shiga
Nara

Kyoto
Wakayama

Osaka

Number of new infections per 100,000 people in Kansai

Note: Weekly moving average. The shadowed part covers the state of emergency periods.
Source: Based on data published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, and local authorities.
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
11/1
2020

8/1
1.82

4/1
1.81
1/11
1.50

4/19
1.25

3/5
1.00

2/12
0.66
3/1
0.78
12/1

1/1
2021

2/1

3/1

4/1

5/1

KansaiFigure 8

6/1

7/1

8/1

9/1

10/1

11/1

11/28
0.74

Nationwide

Evolution of effective reproduction number:
Nationwide vs. Kansai

Note: The red-shaded area shows the state of emergency periods, while yellow shows the period of quasi-stateof emergency. The effective reproductive number (R) is the average number of secondary cases per
infectious case in a population made up of both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. In this case, itis the number of new infections in the past seven days divided by the number of new infections in theweek before that, raised to the power of 5/7 (5 days is average incubation period, 7 days is the average
infectious period).
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

COVID-19 Chronology
2nd state of emergency:
1/8 ～ 2/28（%）

3rd state of emergency: 4th state of emergency:
4/25 ～ 6/20
8/2 ～ 9/30

StageⅣ

StageⅢ

12/1

1/1
2021

2/1

3/1

Osaka

Figure 9

4/1

5/1

6/1

Hyogo

7/1

Kyoto

8/1

9/1

10/1

11/1

Nara

Critical care beds occupancy rates:
Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, and Nara prefectures

Part Ⅱ

Note: The critical care beds occupancy rate is based on the standards set by each prefecture. Each stage is astandard set by a government subcommittee until November 8, 2021.
Source: Data published by local authorities.

Part Ⅰ

110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11/1
2020

287

（%）
120
100

Part Ⅲ80
60
40

0
5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1
2020
2021
Occupancy rate of beds for patients with mild and moderate symptoms
Occupancy rate of critical care beds

Figure 10

The occupancy rate of beds for patients with mild and moderate symptoms and the critical care beds occupancy rate: Osaka Prefecture

Note: Based on the standards set by Osaka Prefecture.
Source: Data published by Osaka Prefecture.

Part Ⅳ

20

288

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

4. Anti-COVID-19 measures in Japan(1) Border restrictions〇 Table 1 shows the timeline of the border restrictions imposed by Japan. In
order to limit the spread of the virus, starting with February 1, 2020 Japan
imposed restrictions on arrivals from China’s Hubei Province. Initially, thesemeasures were limited to some parts of China and South Korea, but by August 30, they covered 159 countries and territories.
〇 On the other hand, on July 29, 2020 the Japanese government announced theimplementation of the “Residence Track” framework targeting long-term residents from Thailand and Vietnam. In September, resident card holders wereallowed re-entry, and the “Business Track” framework agreement was signed
Table 1
Implementation
dateTimeline of border restrictions in Japan
Border enforcement measure

2020/2/1

An entry ban is imposed on travelers from Hubei Province, China.

2020/7/29

The “Residence Track” framework is implemented in collaboration with Thailand and Vietnam.

2020/8/30

Japan expands the entry ban list from 146 to 159 countries.

2020/9/1

Resident card holders are allowed re-entry.

2020/9/8

Cambodgia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Laos are added to the “Residence Track” framework.

2020/9/18

The “Business Track” framework is implemented in collaboration with Singapore.

2020/9/30

Singapore is added to the “Residence Track” framework.

2020/10/1

New entry permits can be issued for medium and long-term residents such as
employees and foreign students, provided that their respective companies/
institutions can guarantee they respect the quarantine measures.

2020/10/8

Began accepting business and residency track applications with Korea.

2020/11/1

Landing denials have been lifted in 9 countries, but Myanmar and Jordan havebeen added to the list, bringing the total number of countries covered to 152.

2020/11/1

Japan removes the following territories/countries from the entry ban list: Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, China (including Hong Kongand Macau), New Zealand, Brunei, and Vietnam.
Vietnam is added to the “Business Track” framework.

2020/11/30

Acceptance of Business and Residence Tracks with China Begins

2020/12/28

Japan decides to temporarily ban new entry for all foreign nationals.

2021/1/14

The “Business Track” and “Residence Track” frameworks are suspended.

2021/7/9

Re-entry restrictions expanded from 41 to 60 countries and territories.

2021/11/8

Vaccination certificate holders are allowed to enter the country with shorter
quarantine period.

2021/11/30

Temporary suspension of new entry for foreigners until Dec. 31

Source: Compiled from data published by the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

1) For more details regarding these two frameworks, see Section 1, Chapter 4.
2) Here, the new COVID-19 variants include the Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants.

Part Ⅱ(2) States of emergency timeline〇 Table 2 shows the timeline of Japan’s states of emergency. On April 7, 2020
the government imposed a state of emergency over COVID-19 for the firsttime in seven prefectures. However, on April 16 the state of emergency was
expanded to the whole country.
〇 On January 8, 2021 the second state of emergency was imposed, initially covering four prefectures. A week later it was expanded to seven more.
〇 On April 25 the third state of emergency was imposed in four prefectures, andby May 28 it was expanded to a total of ten prefectures, while its period was
extended until June 20.
〇 On July 8 the fourth state of emergency was declared, and starting with July
12, it was imposed in Tokyo, in addition to Okinawa. On July 30, four more
prefectures were added, while the period was extended until August 31. On
August 17 another seven prefectures were added and the state of emergency
period was extended once again until September 12. On August 25, the stateof emergency was expanded to eight more prefectures. While in Miyagi andOkayama prefectures, the state of emergency was lifted on September 9, theperiod was extended until September 30 for the rest of 19 prefectures.

Part Ⅲwith Singapore targeting short-term residents. In October, new entry permits
were allowed under certain conditions, while more countries were included
into the Business Track and Residence Track frameworks.1)〇 However, due to the COVID-19 resurgence around the world, on December
28, 2020 the government decided yet again to suspend new entries for all
foreign nationals. Following this, on January 14, 2021 the “Business Track”
and “Residence Track” frameworks were halted. Starting with May 14 re-entry was banned for arrivals from India, Nepal, and Pakistan, due to the new
COVID-19 variants. By July 9, the measure was expanded to 60 countries.2)〇 As vaccination is moving forward, the government decided to shorten the
self-isolation period and allow new entries for vaccination certificate holders
starting with November 8. These measures were expected to increase thenumber of international students and technical intern trainees. However, thegovernment decided to temporarily bar all new foreign visitors starting with
November 30 as fears over the new Omicron variant grow.

Part Ⅰ

289

Part Ⅳ

COVID-19 Chronology

290Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

Table 2

Date

State of emergency timeline

Content

State of emergency is declared in Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa,
2020/4/7
Osaka, Hyogo, and Fukuoka prefectures.
2020/4/16 The state of emergency is expanded nationwide.
The state of emergency is lifted in 39 prefectures except for Hokkai2020/5/14
do, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hyogo.
The state of emergency is lifted in Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo prefec2020/5/21
tures.
2020/5/25 The state of emergency is fully lifted.
The state of emergency is re-imposed in Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and2021/1/7
Kanagawa prefectures (period: Jan 8~Feb 7)
The state of emergency is re-imposed in Tochigi, Gifu, Aichi, Kyoto,
2021/1/13
Osaka, Hyogo, and Fukuoka prefectures (period: Jan 14~Feb 7)
The state of emergency is lifted in Tochigi, but is extended until Mar
7 in the rest of the prefectures (period: Feb 8~Mar 7).
2021/2/2
Prefectures: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Gifu, Aichi, Kyoto,
Osaka, Hyogo, Fukuoka.
The government announces that on Mar 1 the state of emergency
will be lifted in Gifu, Aichi, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hyogo prefectures.
2021/2/26
In Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures, the state of
emergency will stay in place (until Mar 7).
The government announces that on Mar 21 the state of emergency
2021/3/18
will be lifted in Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures.
The government announces that the state of emergency will be
2021/4/23 imposed for the third time in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hyogo prefectures between Apr 25 and May 11.
The government announces that starting with May 12 the state of2021/5/7 emergency will be expanded to Aichi and Fukuoka prefectures, andthat the period will be extended until May 31.
The state of emergency is expanded to Hokkaido, Okayama, and2021/5/14
Hiroshima prefectures (period: May 16~May 31).
The state of emergency is expanded to Okinawa Prefecture (period:
2021/5/21
May 23~Jun 20).
The state of emergency is lifted in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, Kyoto,
2021/6/17 Osaka, Hyogo, Okayama, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka prefectures, but
the period is extended until Jul 11 in Okinawa Prefecture.
A fourth state of emergency is declared in Tokyo between Jul 12
2021/7/8 and Aug 22.
In Okinawa, the state of emergency is extended until Aug 22.
The state of emergency is expanded to Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa,and Osaka prefectures (period: Aug 2~Aug 31).
2021/7/30
In Tokyo and Okinawa, the state of emergency is extended until
Aug 31.
The state of emergency is expanded to Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma,
Shizuoka, Kyoto, Hyogo, and Fukuoka prefectures (period: Aug
2021/8/17 20~Sep 12).
The state of emergency is extended until Sep 12 in Saitama, Chiba,
Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, and Okinawa prefectures.

Number ofprefectures
under SoE

GDP share
(%)

7

47.4

47

100.0

8

49.3

5

36.6

0

0.0

4

33.1

11

59.6

10

58.0

4

33.1

0

0.0

4

31.7

6

42.4

9

49.3

10

50.1

1

0.8

2

19.7

6

41.0

13

58.9

2021/8/25

The state of emergency is expanded to Hokkaido, Miyagi, Gifu,
Aichi, Mie, Shiga, Okayama, and Hiroshima prefectures (period: Aug
27~Sep 12).

21

78.9

2021/9/9

The state of emergency is lifted in Miyagi and Okayama prefectures.
The state of emergency in extended until Sep 30 in Hokkaido,
Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie, Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Hiroshima, Fukuoka,
and Okinawa prefectures.

19

75.8

2021/9/28

The government announces that the state of emergency will be
lifted on Sep 30 in all prefectures.

0

0.0

Note: GRP data for each prefecture is based on nominal figures for FY2018.
Source: Prepared based on “Prefectural Accounts” (Cabinet Office)COVID-19 Chronology

291〇 The GDP share of the areas covered by the abovementioned states of emergency is as follows: the first state of emergency covered the entire country,
so the maximum share was 100%; during the second one, the maximum share
was 59.6%; during the third one, 50.1%; and during the fourth one, 78.9%. Thisshows that they had a significant impact on the Japanese economy (Figure
11).
（%）
100.0
90.0
80.0

Part Ⅰ

70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0

Part Ⅱ

30.0
20.0

9/28

9/9

8/25

8/17

7/8

7/30

6/17

5/21

5/7

5/14

4/23

other than Kansai

Part Ⅲ

KansaiFigure 11

3/18

2/26

2/2

1/7

1/13

5/21

5/25

2021

The national GDP share of prefectures affected by the state of
emergency

Note: GRP data for each prefecture is based on nominal figures for FY2018.
Source: Prepared based on “Prefectural Accounts” (Cabinet Office)Part Ⅳ

2020

5/14

4/7

0.0

4/16

10.0

292

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology〇 In Kansai, the economic share of the areas subject to the state of emergency
exceeded 80% during all periods, and 90% during the fourth state of emergency, which included Shiga Prefecture. This indicates that Kansai was more
affected than the rest of Japan in terms of economic activities (Figure 12).
（%）
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0

2020

Figure 12

9/9

2021

The Kansai GRP share of prefectures affected by the state of
emergency

Note: GRP data for each prefecture is based on nominal figures for FY2018.
Source: Prepared based on “Prefectural Accounts” (Cabinet Office)

9/28

8/25

8/17

7/30

7/8

6/17

5/21

5/7

5/14

4/23

3/18

2/2

2/26

1/7

1/13

5/25

5/21

5/14

4/16

0.0

4/7

10.0

COVID-19 Chronology

293

5. COVID-19 vaccinations

98.1
93.0
81.9

90.0

78.1
76.7
76.7
74.7
70.6
68.8
68.0
56.3

80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0

Part Ⅱ（%）
100.0

Part Ⅰ(1) Situation around the world〇 As of November 30, 2021 more than 7.94 billion vaccine doses were administered worldwide.
〇 Forty percent vaccination rate is widely believed to be the threshold at which
the number of new infections should start to decrease. In terms of share of
the population vaccinated with at least one dose, Israel is the first country toreach 40% (on Feb 7, 2021), followed by the UK (Mar 20), and the USA (Apr21, see Figure 13).

20.0

IsraelItaly
United Arab Emirates

Figure 13

Germany

Singapore
India

United States

United Kingdom
Brazil

Japan

Spain
FranceFirst dose vaccination rates evolution

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data

〇 In terms of fully-vaccinated population share, Israel reached 60% at the beginning of April, but the vaccination campaign slowed down since then. Morerecently, among the countries with a vaccination rate above 80% we can count:
Singapore (91.9%), the UAE (88.4%), and Spain (80.4%). Despite a sluggish
start, Japan has also managed to vaccinate more than 70% of its population(Figure 14).

Part Ⅳ

0.0
12/1 12/22 1/12 2/2 2/23 3/16 4/6 4/27 5/18 6/8 6/29 7/20 8/10 8/31 9/21 10/12 11/2 11/23

Part Ⅲ

10.0

294

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

（%）
100.0

91.9
88.4
80.4
77.1
72.9
69.4
67.8
62.4
62.2
57.9

90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0

31.5

20.0
10.0
0.0
12/1 12/22 1/12 2/2 2/23 3/16 4/6 4/27 5/18 6/8 6/29 7/20 8/10 8/31 9/21 10/12 11/2 11/23
IsraelItaly
United Arab Emirates

Figure 14

Germany
Singapore
India

Japan
Spain
FranceUnited States
United Kingdom
BrazilSecond dose vaccination rates evolution

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data

〇 Israel and the UK have started to administer the third vaccine dose to theeligible population. In Israel and the UK, the booster vaccination campaign
has pushed up the cumulative vaccination rates (the sum of the population
percentages vaccinated with the first, second and third dose, respectively)(Figure 15).
（%）
250.0
215.7
184.89
174.0

200.0

168.32
162.64158.32153.9
153.9
137.49

150.0
100.0

135.12
87.78

50.0
0.0
12/1 12/22 1/12 2/2 2/23 3/16 4/6 4/27 5/18 6/8 6/29 7/20 8/10 8/31 9/21 10/12 11/2 11/23
2020
2021
IsraelItaly
United Arab Emirates

Figure 15

Germany
Singapore
India

United States
United Kingdom
BrazilJapan
Spain
FranceCumulative vaccination rates around the world

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data

COVID-19 Chronology

295〇 The booster vaccination campaigns have already started in several countries
around the world. The booster vaccination rate is 43.9% in Israel, 39.5% in
Uruguay, and 25.8% in the UK (Figure 16). In Japan, booster shots started tobe administered in December 2021, mainly among medical personnel.
（%）
50.0

43.9

45.0

39.5

40.0
35.0

25.8

30.0
25.0

10.0
5.0
0.0
6/1
2021

6/15

6/29

7/13

IsraelUnited Kingdom

Figure 16

7/27

8/10

FranceFrance

8/24

9/7

9/21

United States
Uruguay

10/5 10/19 11/2 11/16
TurkeyLuxembourg

Hungary
Denmark

Booster dose vaccination rates evolution

Part Ⅱ

15.0

Part Ⅰ

20.0

Part Ⅳ(2) Situation in Japan and Kansai〇 The total number of vaccine doses administered in Japan was 196,915,615
as of November 29, 2021. The number increased with the start of workplacevaccination on June 21. In addition, medical personnel vaccination campaign
was completed at the end of July.
〇 In April 2021, when the vaccination of the elderly population began, the vaccination rollout was initially slow, but the situation started to improve in May,
when large-scale vaccination campaigns were initiated by the Self-Defense
Forces in Tokyo and Osaka. As of November 29, the first and second dose
vaccination rates were 78.7% and 76.7%, respectively, relatively high compared to other major nations (Figure 17). In the Kansai region, the numberof first dose vaccinations was 15,758,846, while the second dose vaccinations
totaled 15,373,690. Meanwhile, the vaccination rate was 76.5% for the firstdose and 74.6% for the second dose.

Part Ⅲ

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from Our World in Data

296Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

（%）
90.0

78.7

80.0

76.7
76.5
74.6

70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 3/29 4/12 4/26 5/10 5/24 6/7 6/21 7/5 7/19 8/2 8/16 8/30 9/13 9/27 10/1110/25 11/8 11/22
2021
1st dose: Nationwide
1st dose: Kansai

Figure 17

2nd dose: Nationwide
2nd dose: Kansai

Vaccination rate in Japan

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from the Prime Minister of Japan’s Cabinet official home page.

〇 As of August 30, Wakayama Prefecture had the highest vaccination rate inJapan at 52.7%, but as of November 29, it was replaced by Nara Prefecturewith a vaccination rate of 77.4% (Figure 18).
（%）
80.0

77.4
77.2
76.2
74.8
74.7
72.8

70.0

60.0
52.7
50.0
46.2
43.1
42.3
41.4
40.0
8/30

40.3
9/6

9/13
Shiga

Figure 18

9/20

9/27

Kyoto

10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1
Osaka

Hyogo

Nara

11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29
Wakayama

Trends in second dose vaccination rate in Kansai

Source: compiled by APIR based on data the Prime Minister of Japan’s Cabinet official home page.

〇 As of August 30, after the workplace vaccination campaign had started, thesecond dose vaccination rate was highest Yamaguchi Prefecture (55.8%),
while it was lowest in Okinawa Prefecture (35.9%). However, as of November
29, Akita Prefecture (81.8%) had the highest rate (Figure 19).

297

COVID-19 Chronology
60.0
55.8

52.7

Aug 30, 2021

50.0

46.2

43.1

40.0

35.9

Part Ⅰ

Yamaguchi
Wakayama
Yamagata
Kumamoto
Nagasaki
Saga
Akita
Kochi
Tokushima
Fukui
Gunma
Tottori
Okayama
ShimaneIshikawa
Fukushima
Oita
Niigata
Gifu
Aomori
Nara
Ehime
Kagoshima
Hiroshima
ToyamaNaganoMiyazakiFukuokaMie
Hyogo
IbarakiIwate
Miyazaki
Hokkaido
Shiga
KagawaTokyo
Kyoto
Yamanashi
Osaka
Shizuoka
Chiba
Aichi
Kanagawa
SaitamaTochigi
Okinawa

90.0
Nov 29, 2021
77.4

77.2

76.2

74.8 74.7

72.8

70.0

Akita
Yamagata
ToyamaNiigata
Aomori
IbarakiShizuoka
Iwate
Fukui
Fukushima
Gifu
Miyagi
Kumamoto
Tochigi
Gunma
Yamanashi
NaganoIshikawa
Yamaguchi
Nara
Shimane
Ehime
Tokushima
Mie
Nagasaki
Shiga
Kanagawa
Chiba
Hokkaido
Saitama
Kochi
Kagoshima
Oita
Hyogo
Saga
Tokyo
Miyazaki
KagawaFukuoka
Tottori
Hiroshima
Wakayama
Kyoyo
Aichi
Okayama
Osaka
Okinawa

60.0

66.2

Figure 19

Second dose vaccination rate by prefecture: Aug 30, 2021 vs.
Nov 29, 2021 comparison

Part Ⅱ

81.8
80.0

Part Ⅲ

30.0

42.3 41.4
40.3

6. Japan’s fiscal policy〇 Table 3 summarizes Japan’s budget for COVID-19-related measures. The
first and second supplementary budgets provide support for the development of medical systems and businesses, while the third supplementarybudget provides support for post-pandemic measures and to strengthen thevaccination system. In the FY 2020 budget, the sum of JPY 5 trillion has been
set aside as a reserve fund to reinforce anti-COVID-19 measures, while thefirst supplementary budget provides support for the resumption of socioeconomic activities and preparation for the next crisis.

Part Ⅳ

Source: Compiled by APIR based on data from the Prime Minister of Japan’s Cabinet official home page.

298

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

Table 3Day

Content

Japan’s budget overview and timeline
Summary

Expenses related to Emergency Economic Package against the
COVID-19: JPY 25,565.5 billion(1) Develop preventive measures against the spread of infection and medical treatment structures, as well as pharmaTheceuticals: JPY 1,809.7 billion
Apr
Supplementary(2) Protect employment and sustain business continuity: JPY
30,
Budget for
19,490.5 billion
2020
FY2020(3) Recover economic activities through public-private efforts,
as the next phase: JPY 1,848.2 billion(4) Develop a resilient economic structure: JPY 917.2 billion(5) Prepare for the future: JPY 1,500.0 billion

TotalbudgetJPY 117.1
trillion

Expenses related to cope with the COVID-19: JPY 31,817.1
billion(1) Enhancing the Employment Adjustment Subsidy: JPY 451.9
billionThe second
JPY 117.1
Jun Supplementary (2) Enhancing financial support: JPY 11,639.0 billion
trillion(3) Establishing a rent support grant for SMEs: JPY 2,024.2
12
Budget forbillionFY2020(4) Supporting medical treatment providers: JPY 2,989.2 billion(5) Other supports: JPY 4,712.7 billion(6) Contingency funds for the COVID-19: JPY 10,000.0 billion
1. Containment measures for the COVID-19: JPY 4,358.1 billion(1) Securing the medical treatment system & Supporting medical institutions: JPY 1,644.7 billion(2) Enhancing the testing system & Developing vaccine distribution system: JPY 820.4 billion(3) Containment measures based on data and technology: JPY
The third
1,748.7 billion
Jan
Supplementary (4) International cooperation for containing the COVID-19: JPY JPY 19.2
28,
Budget for FY
trillion
144.4 billion
2021
2020
2. ．Promoting structural change & positive economic cycles
for Post-Corona era: JPY 11,676.6 billion(1) Realizing digitalization and green society: JPY 2,825.6 billion(2) Enhancing productivity through structural changes andinnovation: JPY 2,395.9 billion(3) Realizing positive economic cycles in regions & employment
led by private demand: JPY 6,455.1 billion

Mar
26

The FY2021
BudgetContingency fund for the COVID-19: JPY 5 trillion・In order to prepare for unexpected changes in the situation,
JPY 5 trillion are secured for the contingency fund for the
COVID-19 in the FY 2020 budget, and another JPY 5 trillionof the fund will be set aside in the FY 2021 budget.
・In the 3rd supplementary budget, measures will be taken to
secure hospital beds and accommodations, and to develop the COVID-19 vaccination system and inoculations. In
addition, more measures will be taken to prevent the spreadof the infection.

JPY 106.6
trillion

COVID-19 Chronology

Summary

TotalbudgetResumption of socioeconomic activities in the “Live-withCorona” environment and preparation for the next crisis: JPY
1,768.7 billion
1．Resumption of socioeconomic activities with ensured safety
and relief
・“New Go To Travel campaign”
・Expansion of free inspection without reservation(Local
Revitalization Grant)
2．Fundamentally strengthening contingency plans for infectious diseases
・Establishment of R&D and production systems for vaccines and therapeutic drugs
Note: Only the part related to anti-COVID-19 measures is excerpted.
Source: Compiled from data provided by various ministries.

Part Ⅱ

Containment measures for the COVID-19: JPY 18,605.9 billion
1．Securing the medical treatment system, etc.
・Emergency comprehensive support grant for the COVID-19(securing beds, etc.)
・Development of new coronavirus vaccine inoculation
system and implementation of inoculation
・Securing therapeutic drugs
2．Support for business, daily life, and livelihood(1) Support for businesses
・Support for reviving business/ Funding support
・Support for restaurants etc. cooperating on shortening
business hours, etc. (Local Revitalization Grant)(2) Support for daily life and livelihood
・Benefit for households exempt from resident tax/ Special
lending for emergency small loans, etc.
・COVID-19 payment for self-reliance support for those in
The First
need/ Emergency benefits for supporting students
Nov Supplementary・Housing security benefit/Special measures for Employ26
Budget forment Adjustment Subsidies, etc./ Financial stability of
FY2021
employment insurance(3) Measures against soaring energy prices
・Reduction in burden of transportation fuel, etc

Part Ⅰ

According to the general account settlement for FY 2020, theamount of money carried over to FY 2021 that was not spent
within the fiscal year was JPY 30,780.4 billion, the largest
amount ever.
General・Expenses that support corporate cash flow: JPY 6,414.0
Account
billionSettlement for・Business restructuring subsidies: JPY 1,148.5 billion
FY2020・Expenses to be paid for cooperation in requesting shortening
business: JPY 3,311.5 billion
・Suspension of the “Go To Travel Campaign”: JPY 1,335.3
billionJPY 36
trillion

Part Ⅲ

Jul
30

Content

Part Ⅳ

Day

299

300

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology〇 Table 4 outlines the travel subsidy programs for residents of the prefecturesin the Kansai region.
Table 4

Travel subsidy campaigns in KansaiCampaign nameCampaign period (accommodationfee discounts)

Targetdemographic

Fukui

Special Deal Fukui
Campaign (Japanese:
Fukui de Otoku
Kyanpēn)Oct 1, 2021~Dec 31, 2021※

Residents within
the prefecture

Mie

Mie Discount Travel
Coupon (Japanese:
Mie Toku Toraberu
Kūpon)Part 2: Oct 15, 2021~Nov 30, 2021
Part 3: Dec 1, 2021~Dec 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Shiga

Let’s travel in Shiga
now! (Japanese: Ima
koso Shiga wo tabishiyō)Part 4: Jul 9, 2021~Dec 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Kyoto

Rediscover the Charmof Kyoto Project(Japanese: Kyōto
Miryoku Sai-hakken
Tabi Purojekuto)

Oct 22, 2021~Decv 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Osaka

Welcome to Osaka
Campaign 2021
(Japanese: Ōsaka
Irasshai Kyanpēn
2021)

Nov 24, 2021~Decv 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Hyogo

Support yourhometown! Let’s travelin Hyogo Campaign(Japanese: Furusato
Ōen! Hyōgo wo Tabi
Shiyō Kyanpēn)

Advance sale for accommodationand travel tickets: Oct 14, 2021 ～Dec 31, 2021
OTA reservations are eligible fordiscounts:
Phase 1: Nov 12, 2021~Dec 2,
Phase 2: D ec 3, 2021～Dec 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Nara

Now is the time for
Nara - Campaign 2021
Dec 1, 2021~Feb 28, 2022
(Japanese: Ima Nara
Kyanpēn 2021)

Residents within
the prefecture

Wakayama

Wakayama Refresh
3rd Plan (Japanese:
Wakayama Rifuresshu
Puran 3rd)

~ Dec 31, 2021

Residents within
the prefecture

Tottori &Shimane＃WeLove San’in
Campaign~ Dec 31, 2021

Residents of Shimane and Tottori
prefectures

Tokushima

Let’s all support
Tokushima” Discounts(Japanese: Minna de!
Tokushima Ōen Wari)

Oct 1, 2021 (discount campaign
restarted)~Dec 31, 2021

Residents within theprefecture※Increased the maximum discount amount.
Source: Compiled from data released by each prefecture.

COVID-19 Chronology

301

7. Japan’s monetary policy
Table 5 outlines the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy based on the official Monetary Policy Meetings (MPM) minutes. On December 18, 2020, the Bank decided to extend the duration of additional purchases of CP and corporate bonds
until the end of September 2021 in response to COVID-19. However, due to theprolonged pandemic, on June 18, 2021, the deadline was again extended until
the end of March 2022, in order to continue to support corporate financing.

Apr 27

・Short-term and long-term interest rates policy: no change.
・Asset purchases policy: to be maintained.

Jun 18Jul 16

・Short-term and long-term interest rates policy: no change.
・Guidelines for asset purchases: to be maintained.
・The Bank decided to purchase CP and corporate bonds until the end of March
2022, extending the period by six months.

Source: Prepared by the author based on statements by the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan.

Part ⅠMar 19①With a view to enabling the Bank to cut short- and long-term interest rates
nimbly while considering the impact on the functioning of financial intermediation, the Bank will establish the Interest Scheme to Promote Lending.
②In order to conduct yield curve control flexibly during normal times, the Bank
will make clear that the range of 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB)
yield fluctuations would be between around plus and minus 0.25 percent
from the target level. At the same time, it will introduce “fixed-rate purchase
operations for consecutive days” as a powerful tool to set an upper limit oninterest rates when necessary.
③The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate
investment trusts (J-REITs) as necessary with upper limits of about JPY 12
trillion and about JPY 180 billion, respectively, on annual paces of increasein their amounts outstanding. While these upper limits were originally set
as a temporary measure in response to the impact of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19), the Bank will maintain them even after COVID-19 subsides.
・Short-term and long-term interest rates policy: no change.
・Guidelines for asset purchases: to be maintained.

Part Ⅱ・The Bank of Japan left its current short- and long-term interest rates policy
unchanged.
・It also decided to maintain its guidelines for asset purchases.

Part ⅢJan 21, 2021

Monetary policy to counter the impact of COVID-19

Part Ⅳ

Table 5

302

Part Ⅲ / COVID-19 Chronology

8. US fiscal and monetary policies
Table 6
Date

Institution

US financial and monetary policies
PolicyOutlineAdditional ・The US adopted a USD 900 billion COVID-relief package
supportincluding USD 600 direct individual payments, unemploymeasures
ment benefits, and support for small businesses.

Dec 27,2020

USgovernment

Jan 20,2021

Joe Biden becomes the 46th president of the USA.

Jan 27

FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rates

・The Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least USD 80 billion permonth and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by atleast USD 40 billion per month.

Mar 11USgovernment

AmericanRescuePlan

・The American Rescue Plan aims to deliver direct
COVID-relief to the American people. The plan has a total budget of USD 1.9 trillion and includes measures suchas giving working families a USD 1,400 per-person check.

Mar 17

FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rates

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Mar 31USgovernment

The
AmericanJobs Plan

・President Joe Biden announced The American Jobs Plan,
with a total budget of more than USD 2 trillion.

Apr 28FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rates

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Apr 28USgovernment

The
AmericanFamilies
Plan・President Joe Biden announced his USD 1.8 trillion
American Families Plan that seeks to invest in educationand provide direct support to children and families. The
plan is intended to complement The American Jobs Planas part of a larger economic growth strategy.

Jun 16

FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rate

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Jun 24USgovernment

Infrastructure investment
plan

・The White House announced its support for a bipartisan
agreement on a infrastructure investment plan (Bipartisan
Infrastructure Framework). The framework involves new
spending of approximately USD 579 billion.

Jul 13USgovernment

Investment plan

Senate Democrats and the White House agreed on a USD
3.5 trillion investment plan.
Adding this to the almost USD 600 billion Bipartisan
Infrastructure Framework results in a total of approximately USD 4.1 trillion, which suggests that President Biden’s
American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan will
receive the necessary funding.

Jul 28FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rates

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Date

303

Institution

PolicyOutlineSep 22FOMC

Nochange ininterest
rates

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Oct 28US government

Investment plan

President Biden unveils a scaled-down version of the earlier
USD 3.5 trillion investment plan, known as the “Build Back
Better Plan.”

Nov 3

FOMC

No
change ininterest
rates

・The Committee decided to keep the target range for thefederal funds rate unchanged.

Nov 15US government

Infrastructure investment
plan

President Biden signs the infrastructure bill into law. The
USD 1 trillion bill will enable states and local governments
to upgrade roads and bridges, improve the communications and power networks, and build a national network ofelectric vehicle (EV) chargers.

Nov 19US government

Investment plan

House of Representatives Democrats pass the “Build Back
Better Plan.” The total budget is approximately USD 2
trillion.

Part ⅠCOVID-19 Chronology

Table 7

EU financial and monetary policies

Date

Institution

PolicyOutlineJan 21,
2021
Mar 11
Apr 22
Jun 10EuropeanCentral
Bank
(ECB)

No
change ininterest
rates

・The Governing Council of the ECB decided that the key
interest rates will remain unchanged.

Jun 15

EuropeanCommission

Recoveryfund・The EU issued a EUR 20 billion 10-year bond in order
to finance its Recovery Fund. The EU also plans to raise
EUR 750 billion through joint bond issuance by the endof 2026. Therein, approximately EUR 100 billion bonds,
including EUR 80 billion of long-term bonds, are expected to be issued by the end of 2021.

Jul 22
Sep 9
Oct 28EuropeanCentral
Bank
(ECB)

No
change ininterest
rates

・The Governing Council of the ECB decided that the key
interest rates will remain unchanged.

Source: Prepared by the author based on documents issued by the European Central Bank (ECB), Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), and various media reports.

Part Ⅳ

9. EU fiscal and monetary policies

Part ⅢPart Ⅱ

Source: Prepared by the author based on documents issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),
Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), and various media reports.