FY2011
Annual Survey of Corporate Behavior(Summary)

March 2012
Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet OfficeSurvey system

1 Objective of survey

The objective of this survey is to clarify the actual state of theJapanese economy from the aspect of corporate activities, bycontinuously conducting surveys on how companies forecast
future trends in the business outlook and industrial demand.

2 Period of the research

January 2012

3 Survey items

Business outlook and demand forecast, exchange rates, price, The
growth rate of capital investment, Change in the number of
employees, Ratios of overseas production and reverse imports

4 Coverage

All companies listed in the First Section and Second Section of
the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Stock Exchange (2,378 companies(as of November 1, 2011))

5 Survey method

Self-reporting mailing method using prescribed
questionnaire

6 Number of responding

890 companies (461 in manufacturing industries, 429 incompanies

non-manufacturing industries)

7 Response rate

37.4 ％(Note) The sectors used in this survey are based on the classifications for securities codes.
The breakdown for manufacturing industries is as follows.
Material-type manufacturing industries:
Processing-type manufacturing industries:
Other manufacturing industries:

Textiles and Apparels, Pulp and Paper, Chemicals, Iron andSteel, Nonferrous Metals
Machinery, Electric Appliances, Transportation Equipment,
Precision Instruments
Foods, Pharmaceutical, Oil and Coal Products, Rubber
Products, Glass and Ceramics Products, Metal Products, Other
Products

-1-

-2-

Summary of the Results

1 Business outlook and demand forecast(1) Forecast for economic growth rate in Japan○ The forecast for the real economic growth rate for the “next fiscal year” (FY2012) on an allindustries basis (average of actual values1)) is 1.6%, which represents a forecast for
positive growth. This is higher than the forecast in the survey from the previous fiscal
year; among recent years, this forecast is of nearly of the same level as in the FY2007
survey (all industries basis; 1.9%).
○ In forecasts “over the next 3 years” and “over the next 5 years,” the real economic growth
rates are higher than those in the survey from last year for both, but were somewhat lower
than the forecast rate for the “next fiscal year.”○ The forecasts for nominal economic growth rate for the “next fiscal year,” “over the next 3
years,” and “over the next 5 years” were lower than those for the real economic growthrate, implying that sustained deflation is anticipated.
[Table 1] Forecast for real economic growth rate in Japan (all industries basis)（％）

Nominal economic
growth rate

Real economic
growth rate

Next fiscal year (FY2012)

1.1

(0.3)

1.6

(0.9)

Next 3 years (Annual average: FY2012-2014)

1.1

(0.7)

1.5

(1.2)

Next 5 years (Annual average: FY2012-2016)

1.1

(1.0)

1.5

(1.3)

Note) Numbers in the parentheses are forecasts for “FY2011”,”FY2011-2013” and“FY2011-2015”,respectively in the FY2010 survey.

1)

The mean values in this survey are simple averages. The same applies hereinafter.

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[Fig. 1] Trends in forecast real economic growth rate in Japan (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast over the next 3 years
Forecast over the next 5 years

4.0
3.0
2.0

1.6
1.5
1.5

1.0
0.0
‐1.0
‐2.0

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0
Survey year (FY)Note) With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year”
in the FY2011 survey refers to the forecast for FY2012; the “forecast over the next 3 years” refers to
the forecast for FY2012 to FY2014; and the “forecast over the next 5 years” refers the forecast for
FY2012 to FY2016 (fiscal year average).

(2) Forecast for industrial demand growth rate
○ The forecast for real growth rate (all industries basis, average of actual values) is 1.4% for
the “next fiscal year,” representing a forecast for positive growth.
○ Forecasts for the “next fiscal year,” “over the next 3 years,” and “over the next 5 years” allrepresent positive growth for both manufacturing industries and non-manufacturingindustries.
○ When looking at the “next fiscal year” by sector, the growth rate forecast for“Transportation Equipment” is high among manufacturing industries, and “Information
and Communication” is high for non-manufacturing industries.
○ Comparing this and the forecast for Japan’s real economic growth rate (all industries basis),
the forecasts for industrial demand growth rate are below Japan’s real economic growthrate in each of the “next fiscal year,” “over the next 3 years,” and “over the next 5 years”,
and by industry, the forecast for industrial demand growth rate is below Japan’s real
economic growth rate in non-manufacturing industries.

-4-[Table 2] Forecasts for real growth rate for industrial demand（％）

All industries

ManufacturingNon-manufacturing

Next fiscal year (FY2012)

1.4

(0.8)

1.6

(1.2)

1.2

(0.3)

Next 3 years (Annual average: FY2012-2014)

1.4

(0.9)

1.6

(1.2)

1.1

(0.5)

Next 5 years (Annual average: FY2012-2016)

1.3

(0.9)

1.5

(1.1)

1.1

(0.6)

Note) Numbers in the parentheses are forecasts for “FY2011”,”FY2011-2013” and“FY2011-2015”,respectively in the FY2010 survey.

[Fig. 2] Trends in real growth rate forecast for industrial demand (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast over the next 3 years
Forecast over the next 5 years

4.0
3.0
2.0

1.4
1.4
1.3

1.0
0.0
‐1.0
‐2.0

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0
Survey year (FY)Note) With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year”
in the FY2011 survey refers to the forecast for FY2012; the “forecast over the next 3 years” refers to
the forecast for FY2012 to FY2014; and the “forecast over the next 5 years” refers the forecast for
FY2012 to FY2016 (fiscal year average).

Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast over the next 5 years

Forecast over the next 3 years

under 1 billion yen

(%)

Other

[Fig. 3] Real growth rate forecasts for industrial demand by industry and capital size

3.0

2.0

10 billions yen and over

5 to 10 billions yen(not incl.)

1 to 5 billions yen(not incl.)

Non‐manufacturing

Processing‐type

Material‐type

Manufacturing

0.0

All industries

1.0Note) “Forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2011 survey refers to the forecast for
FY2012; the “forecast over the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2012 to FY2014;
and the “forecast over the next 5 years” refers the forecast for FY2012 to FY2016 (fiscal
year average).

-5-

2 Exchange rates(1) Forecast exchange rate after 1 year
○ The forecast exchange rate after 1 year (around January 2013) (all industries basis, averageclass value2)) is 80.3 yen per dollar, the highest since the beginning of the survey in
FY1986.
○ For the manufacturing industry, the forecast exchange rate fell below 80 yen per dollar for
the first time since the beginning of the survey, to 79.8 yen per dollar.
(2) Breakeven exchange rate
○ The breakeven exchange rate for exporting companies on an all industries basis (average ofactual values) is 82.0 yen per dollar, which corresponds to a 4.3 yen appreciation of theyen compared to the previous year’s result. This represents the highest yen appreciation
since the beginning of the survey in FY1986.
○ However, the breakeven exchange rate is 4.1 yen weaker than the exchange rate in themonth immediately before the survey (77.9 yen per dollar in December 2011) .
[Table 3] Forecast exchange rate after 1 year and the breakeven exchange rate (in relation to US dollar)(Yen/US dollar)

All industries

ManufacturingNon-manufacturing

Forecast exchange rate

80.3

(88.4)

79.8(88.1)

80.8(88.7)Breakeven exchange rate

82.0

(86.3)

82.3(86.7)

80.5(83.7)

Note 1) “Forecast exchange rate” refers to the average class value, and “breakeven exchange rate” refers to theaverage of actual values.
Note 2) “Breakeven exchange rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.
Note 3) Numbers in the parentheses are the results in the FY2010 survey.

2)

The average class value is an average value calculated using the median value of each class (for example, if theclass chosen is “10%-20%(not incl.)”, the average class value would be 15%). Note that average values forclasses that have no upper limit are calculated using the lower limit (e.g. for the class “20% or more”, the averagevalue is 20%), and those for classes without lower limit using the upper limit (e.g. in “-20% and less”, the averageclass value is -20%). The same applies hereinafter.

-6-

[Fig. 4] Trends in the forecast exchange rate after 1 year and the breakeven exchange rate(all industries basis)(Yen/US dollar)

160
Forecast exchange rate after 1 year
Breakeven exchange rate
Exchange rate in the month immediately before the survey

140

120

100
82.0
80

80.3
77.9

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

60
Survey year (FY)

Note 1) “Forecast exchange rate” refers to the average class value, and “breakeven exchange rate”
refers to the average of actual values.
Note 2) “Breakeven exchange rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.

[Fig. 5] Forecast exchange rate after 1 year and the breakeven exchange rateby industry and capital size
Forecast exchange rate after 1 year
Breakeven exchange rate

(Yen/US dollar)

90
Exchange rate in the month immediately before thesurvey (Dec. 2011): 77.9 yen/US dollar

80

10 billions yen andover

5 to 10 billions yen(not incl.)

1 to 5 billions yen(not incl.)

under 1 billion yen

Non‐manufacturing

Other

Processing‐type

Material‐type

Manufacturing

60

All industries

70

Note 1) “Forecast exchange rate” refers to the average class value, and “breakeven exchange rate” refers
to the average of actual values.
Note 2) “Breakeven exchange rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.

-7-

3 Price○ The average purchase price after 1 year is forecast to rise by 1.3% on an all industries basis(average class value), indicating that the growth rate decelerated as compared to the previous
year’s survey.
○ By sector, the rate of increase is forecast to be high for the “Pulp and Paper” in manufacturingindustries and “Electric Power and Gas” for the non-manufacturing industries.
○ The average sales price after 1 year on an all industries basis (average class value) is expected
to fall by 0.3%, and the rate of decline is accelerated as compared to the previous year’s
survey.
○ By sector, the rate of decline is expected to be large for “Pharmaceutical,” etc. for
manufacturingindustries

and

for

“Information

andCommunication,”

etc.

for

non-manufacturing industries.
○ For both manufacturing industries and non-manufacturing industries, the rise in purchaseprices will not be passed through to sales prices, and the terms of trade3) are likely to worsen.
[Table 4] Rate of change in average purchase price and average sales price after 1 year（％）

All industries

ManufacturingNon-manufacturing

Average purchase price

1.3

(1.7)

1.4

(2.0)

1.2

(1.3)

Average sales price-0.3(-0.1)-0.7(-0.3)

0.2(0.3)

Note) Numbers in the parentheses are the results in the FY2010 survey.

[Fig. 6] Rate of change in average purchase price and average sales price after 1 year
by industry and capital size
Average purchase price
Average sales price

(%)

4.0

2.0

3)

10 billions yen and over

5 to 10 billions yen(not incl.)

1 to 5 billions yen(not incl.)

under 1 billion yen

Non‐manufacturing

Other

Processing‐type

Material‐type

Manufacturing‐2.0

All industries

0.0

Terms of trade as mentioned here represent the value obtained upon subtracting the rate of change in the averagepurchase price from the rate of change in the average sales price.

-8-

4 The growth rate of capital investment○ Capital investment is forecast to grow by 4.1% “over the next 3 years” on an all industries
basis (average class value). The growth rate is accelerated as compared to that of the previous
year’s survey and among recent years, this is almost the same level as the survey from
FY2007 (5.1%, all industries basis).
○ Both the manufacturing industries and non-manufacturing industries are expected to see anaccelerated growth rate as compared to that of the previous year’s survey.
○ An increasing trend centering around the industries including “Precision Instruments” isanticipated to grow for the manufacturing industries, while an increasing trend centering
around the industries including “Retail Trade” is anticipated to grow for the
non-manufacturing industries.

[Table 5] Forecast changes for capital investment over the next 3 years（％）

Next 3 years(average from FY2012 to FY2014)
All industries
Manufacturing
Material-type

4.1

(3.4)

4.9

(3.9)

3.9

(4.0)

Processing-type

5.4

(4.3)

Other

5.1

(3.1)

3.2

(2.8)

Non-manufacturingNote) Numbers in the parentheses are forecasts for “FY2011 to FY2013” in the FY2010 survey.

［Fig. 7］Trends in forecast changes for capital investment over the next 3 years by industry
(%)

20.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

15.0

10.0
4.9

5.0

4.1
3.2

0.0

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐5.0

Survey year (FY)Note) With regard to “over the next 3 years,” for example, “over the next 3 years” in the FY2011
survey refers to the forecast changes from FY2012 to FY2014 (annual average).

-9-

[Fig. 8] Changes in capital investment by industry and capital size(%)

Past 3 years

Next 3 years

8.0

6.0

4.0

10 billions yen and over

5 to 10 billions yen(not incl.)

1 to 5 billions yen(not incl.)

under 1 billion yen

Non‐manufacturing

Other

Material‐type

Manufacturing

All industries

0.0

Processing‐type2.0Note) “Past 3 years” represents changes from FY2009 to FY2011 (annual average), and “Next 3
years” represents forecast changes from FY2012 to FY2014 (annual average).

[Fig. 9] Changes in capital investment by sector(%)

Past 3 years

Next 3 years

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

Note 1) “Past 3 years” represents changes from FY2009 to FY2011 (annual average), and “Next 3
years” represents forecast changes from FY2012 to FY2014 (annual average).
Note 2) Individual sectors exclude those with less than 5 responding companies for both “Past 3
years” and “Next 3 years.”- 10 -

Pulp & Paper

Real Estate

Iron & Steel

Wholesale Trade

Electric Power & Gas

Other Financing Business

Banks

Construction

Pharmaceutical

Land Transportation

Marine Transportation

Foods

Securities & Commodity Futures

Nonferrous Metals

Information & communication

Chemicals

Transportation Equipment

Machinery

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Metal ProductsElectric AppliancesServices

Glass & Ceramics Products

Retail Trade

Other products

Textiles & Apparels

Precision Instruments‐10.0

All industries‐5.0

5 Change in the number of employees(1) Number of employees over the next 3 years○ The forecast change in the number of employees “over the next 3 years” on an allindustries basis (average class value) is 1.0%.
○ The number of employees is forecast to increase for both manufacturing industries andnon-manufacturing industries. Compared to the previous year’s survey, the growth rate for
manufacturing industries is expected to decelerate, while the growth rate fornon-manufacturing industries is expected to accelerate.
○ By sector, increases centering mainly on “Pharmaceutical,” etc. for manufacturingindustries and “Real Estate,” etc. for non-manufacturing industries are forecast.
○ Compared with the rate of increase for the “past 3 years" (all industries basis, 0.5%), thegrowth “over the next 3 years” is anticipated to accelerate.
[Table 6] Forecast rates of change in the number of employees over the next 3 years（％）

All industries

ManufacturingNon-manufacturing

Number of employees

1.0

(1.0)

0.4

(0.7)

1.7

(1.4)

Regular employees

0.9

(0.8)

0.3

(0.5)

1.6

(1.1)

Note) Numbers in the parentheses are the results of the FY2010 survey.

[Fig. 10] Trends in forecast rates of change in the number of employees over the next 3 years
by industry(%)

6.0
All industries
Manufacturing
Non‐manufacturing

4.0
2.0

1.7
1.0
0.4

0.0
‐2.0
‐4.0

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

‐6.0
Survey year (FY)

Note 1) With regard to “over the next 3 years,” for example, “over the next 3 years” in the FY2011
survey refers to the forecast changes from FY2012 to FY2014 (annual average).
Note 2) Only the FY2003 survey gives values for “regular employees” (In FY2003, “regular
employees” and “part-timers, dispatched employees” were surveyed.)- 11 -

Past 3 years

Next 3 years

Textiles & Apparels(%)

Other Products[Fig. 11] Rate of change in the number of employees by sector
6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Iron & Steel

Pulp & Paper

Metal Products

Banks

Securities & Commodity Futures

Electric Power & Gas

Construction

Land Transportation

Foods

Transportation Equipment

Chemicals

Nonferrous Metals

Machinery

Electric Appliances

Glass & Ceramics Products

Precision Instruments

Other Financing Business

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Pharmaceutical

Marine Transportation

Wholesale Trade

Services

Information & Communication

Real Estate

Retail Trade‐4.0

All industries‐2.0

Note 1) “Past 3 years” represents changes from FY2009 to FY2011 (annual average), and “Next 3
years” represents forecast changes from FY2012 to FY2014 (annual average).
Note 2) Individual sectors exclude those with less than 5 responding companies for both “Past 3
years” and “Next 3 years.”(2) Regular employees from among the total number of employees over the next 3 years○ The forecast rate of change “over the next 3 years” for regular employees, from among thetotal number of employees, on an all industries basis (average class value) is 0.9%, which
is not as strong of an increasing trend as compared to the total number of employees.
○ Compared to the rate of change “over the last 3 years” (all industries basis: 0.2%,
manufacturing industries: -0.2%, non-manufacturing industries: 0.5%), the rate of change“over the next 3 years” is expected to turn into an increase for manufacturing industries,
and the growth rate is forecast to accelerate for non-manufacturing industries.

- 12 -

6 Ratios of overseas production and reverse imports(1) Ratio of overseas production (responses only by manufacturing companies)○ The overseas production ratio4) (average of actual values) was 17.9% in actual performancefor FY2010, representing an increase as compared to the survey from the previous year, as
well as the highest level since the beginning of this survey in FY1987.
○ The “forecast for actual performance in FY2011” and “forecast for FY2016” are both
expected to continue with the increasing trend.
○ By category for manufacturing industries, the level for “processing-type manufacturingindustries” is high, and the rise is relatively high as well.
○ By sector, when looking at the “forecast for FY2016,” the level for “Electric Appliances,”
etc. is high, and the level for “Pharmaceutical,” etc. is low.
[Fig. 12] Trends in overseas production ratio (manufacturing industries)(%)

50
Manufacturing
Processing‐type

Material‐type
Other

40

30
22.4
20

17.9

18.4

10

2016

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

0
(FY)

Note 1) FY2011 represents the actual performance forecast, FY2016 represents the forecast, and otheryears represent the actual performance for the previous fiscal year in the survey for thefollowing fiscal year. (For example, the value for FY2010 is the value for “actual performancefor FY2010” in the FY2011 survey.)
Note 2) Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.

4)

Ratio of overseas production = output of overseas production / (output of domestic production + output of overseas
production)
Simple average of responding companies including those not engaged in overseas production.

- 13 -

(2) Ratio of reverse imports (responses only by manufacturing companies)○ In terms of the ratio of reverse imports5) (average of actual values), the “actual
performance for FY2010” is 21.3%, which is low as compared to the actual performancein the previous fiscal year. This is the lowest level since the beginning of the survey in
FY2001.
○ The “forecast for FY2016” is a continuation of this declining trend.
○ When looking at the “forecast for FY2016,” the level for “Textiles and Apparels,” etc. ishigh, and the level for “Transportation Equipment,” etc. is low.

[Fig. 13] Trends in the ratio of reverse imports (manufacturing industries)(%)

50
Manufacturing
Processing‐type

Material‐type
Other

40

30
21.3
20

21.3

19.6

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 (FY)

Note 1) FY2011 represents the actual performance forecast, FY2016 represents the forecast, andother years represent the actual performance for the previous fiscal year in the survey forthe following fiscal year. (For example, the value for FY2010 is the value for “actual
performance for FY2010” in the FY2011 survey.)
Note 2) Excludes companies that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.
Note 3) Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the ratio ofreverse imports.
Note 4) Surveys regarding the ratio of reverse imports began in FY2001.

5)

Ratio of reverse imports = Exports to Japan / Output of overseas production
Excludes companies that reported 0.0% for their overseas production ratio.
Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for their ratio of reverse imports.

- 14 -

[Table 7] Ratio of overseas production and reverse imports (manufacturing industries)（％）

Ratio of overseas production

Ratio of reverse imports

Actual performance for FY2010

17.9(17.1)

21.3(22.6)

Forecast actual performance for FY2011

18.4(18.0)

21.3(22.0)

Forecast actual performance for FY2016

22.4(21.4)

19.6(20.6)

Note 1) Numbers in the parentheses for “Actual performance for FY2010” are the values for“actual performance for FY2009”; numbers in the parentheses for “Forecast actual
performance for FY2011” are the values for “forecast actual performance for FY2010”;
numbers in the parentheses for “Forecast for FY2016” are the values for “forecast for
FY2015” in the FY2010 survey.
Note 2) “Ratio of overseas production” is the simple average of responding companies including
those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.
Note 3) “Ratio of reverse imports” excludes companies that responded with 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.
Note 4) “Ratio of reverse imports” is the simple average of responding companies including thosethat reported 0.0% for the ratio of reverse imports.

(3) Reasons for setting up overseas production bases (responses by only manufacturing industries/ single answer from among multiple choices)○ The most commonly cited reason for setting up overseas production bases is “Demand isstrong, or is forecast to expand, in local market(s) and markets in neighboring countries”(42.9%).
○ Compared to the previous year’s survey, the composition ratio of reasons such as “Labor
costs are low” and “Entered overseas market(s) following entry by parent company or
customer(s)” is smaller, while the composition ratio of reasons such as “We can catereffectively to overseas users’ needs” and “Low costs of materials, overall production
processes, distribution, and land/buildings” has expanded.

- 15 -

[Table 8] Reasons for setting up overseas production bases (manufacturing industries)（％）

FY 2011 survey

Manufacturing

FY 2010 survey

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

1 Labor costs are low

23.0

17.0

25.3

25.8

26.1

2 We can easily secure highly-qualified
personnel (technical and research staff)

0.3

-

0.6

-

0.6

3 We can enjoy low costs of materials,
overall production processes, distributions,and land/buildings

10.9

10.6

13.6

4.5

8.9

4 Strong demand exists, or demand is forecast
to expand, for our products in the local
market(s) and markets in neighboring
countries

42.9

47.9

35.8

53.0

42.9

5 We can cater effectively to overseas
usersʼ needs

11.8

11.7

13.6

7.6

8.6

6 We have contracts with reliable suppliersof parts and/or raw materials to the local
facilities in a stable manner

1.9

3.2

0.6

3.0

2.1

7 We have entered the overseas market(s)following entry by our parent company or
customer(s) and so on

6.5

8.5

7.4

1.5

7.7

8 We take advantage of industrial development
programs including favorable taxation and/or
financing which are offered by the local
government(s)

0.3

-

0.6

-

0.3

9 Inadequate infrastructure in the local
country in question had prevented us fromsetting up operations there, but this issue
has now been addressed

-

-

-

-

-

2.5

1.1

2.5

4.5

2.8

Reasons for setting up overseas production bases

10 Other reasonsNote) The shaded areas represent the top 3 reasons for each fiscal year.

- 16 -Other≪Inquiry≫
Department of Business Statistics,
Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office,
Government of Japan
3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8970, Japan.

http://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html- 17 -