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k V5WV5laVXQPVPZ5IÑ Z HVU)LNbPJXWVPZ5TÑV5ijQè3ORLNMPO ¹V5W½OZXà+Ñ53ibP·+QPVU_SJ5º+3iU)V5^)¼U_OR¼ lO iPWXS:¹.MjV5¶ S[L(V5ÃPbPijQPV5ij¼SS[LdU_O laVU_SÃjVXLNS[QJXi! 3ÍÄQPVU)VO ij¼¶ bjQ O iPÁ0¼JXl·jV5^_ORLNJXi0U_J¿dë9ì:5à  &S[LdU_O laVU_S[LÑ]Í .ÐjZ½5X ÑÇTable 1. Catch-at-age matrices of whales in Area IV and V in terms of 3-year grouping(a) Area IV

Cya
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004

2
121
820
80
213
235
68
63
39
92
87
83
39

8

5
8
256
314
1508 1773
329
437
493
626
499
606
181
330
97
80
39
39
82
79
36
36
81
75
30
45

11
14
310
352
1716 1423
633
618
730
776
808
709
478
598
47
44
24
20
93
48
27
20
52
54
21
28

17
319
1261
529
751
886
676
61
21
42
19
52
30

20
284
895
283
596
664
598
61
18
36
14
48
23

23
235
723
234
469
506
539
33
12
28
17
34
16

26
146
470
125
294
346
358
45
16
43
10
24
12

29
95
345
79
228
216
234
27
20
24
10
33
13

32
99
170
48
138
84
116
12
15
27
15
26
18

35
45
110
11
117
47
92
13
9
24
13
27
8

38
30
92
25
64
34
51
7
7
13
10
27
18

41
25
18
6
47
32
20
6
2
6
2
18
7

44
3
15
0
36
7
15
1
2
4
5
15
8

47
7
13
2
23
7
6
0
2
10
6
7
8

50
17
7
6
18
3
0
0
1
5
0
1
4

53 Total
4
2663
0
11358
0
3444
0
5617
0
5689
0
4359
0
598
1
288
4
660
1
328
1
660
1
330

5
62
279
179
382
151
34
59
23
37
26
33

11
133
488
344
584
307
28
65
35
61
31
37

17
89
439
464
678
497
25
58
31
51
42
37

20
74
320
264
527
426
21
63
28
48
9
29

23
48
188
246
376
314
15
60
20
42
26
22

26
30
146
259
285
275
8
55
21
56
28
22

29
3
98
198
150
164
10
36
17
39
21
16

32
10
40
84
103
75
5
35
11
36
19
19

35
4
34
81
60
64
5
25
16
33
16
8

38
0
9
37
34
15
5
19
8
22
15
8

41
0
13
23
23
14
0
5
4
19
2
3

44
0
12
26
11
3
0
7
0
8
6
5

47
0
0
25
6
4
0
7
0
6
3
2

50
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
7
4
3

53 Total
0
734
2
2982
0
3006
1
4518
3
2936
0
236
0
650
0
330
0
659
4
330
1
330

(b) Area V

Cya
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004

2
21
38
58
117
61
13
26
32
60
16
22

8
129
374
323
479
202
27
69
44
55
29
28

14
131
502
395
700
357
39
62
39
78
33
33

Table 2. Abundance estimates and their coefficient variations (CVs) in Area IV and V used as tuning factors(a) Area IV

SurveyIDCR 1978/79
IDCR 1988/89
JARPA 1989/90
JARPA 1991/92
JARPA 1993/94
JARPA 1995/96
JARPA 1997/98
JARPA 1999/00
JARPA 2001/02
JARPA 2003/04(b) Area V

Estimates
134,304
60,20754,53954,95941,934
42,13432,65649,86768,50347,858

CV
0.179
0.184
0.215
0.243
0.215
0.220
0.252
0.169
0.167
0.358

SurveyIDCR 1980/81
IDCR 1985/86
IDCR 1991/92
JARPA 1990/91
JARPA 1992/93
JARPA 1994/95
JARPA 1996/97
JARPA 1998/99
JARPA 2000/01
JARPA 2002/03

Estimates
257,768
290,675
190,044
195,743
122,048
168,566
171,332
198,423
179,796
226,884

CV
0.280
0.136
0.180
0.210
0.229
0.268
0.261
0.233
0.210
0.161

9

Table 3. Results of model selection in terms of overdispersion for the baseline scenario in Area IV and V

Case

φC

φS

M

relative AIC

Area IV
φC =0, φS =0000.0788min AIC

φC>0, φS=00.000360

00.07882.00

φC=0, φS>0

0

5.84

0.0791

1.08

φC>0, φS>00.000250

5.84

0.0791

3.52

φC=0, φS=0000.0497min AIC

φC>0, φS=0

4.84

0

0.0500

1.24

φC=0, φS>0

0

7.60

0.0501

0.92

φC>0, φS>0

4.77

4.54

0.0503

2.18

Area IV

Table 4. The estimated numbers-at-age matrices in Area IV and V for the baseline scenario(a) Area IV
Nya
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004

10

2
28512
21562
14926
11887
11973
13077
9499
8857
8024
10644
6726
6047

5
27196
22533
16462
11783
9265
9316
10325
7489
6999
6295
8379
5272

8
22558
21358
16668
12791
8950
6949
7242
8109
5906
5484
4962
6578

11
16794
17616
15509
12854
9634
6608
5242
5672
6391
4614
4314
3871

14
11988
13040
12577
11768
9590
6982
4849
4109
4468
4982
3629
3371

17
7954
9195
9179
9450
8686
7018
5044
3797
3231
3492
3921
2824

20
6114
6027
6263
6828
6866
6157
5006
3933
2980
2518
2742
3054

23
4219
4597
4046
4714
4914
4891
4383
3899
3087
2321
1974
2124

26
3028
3138
3051
3003
3343
3471
3427
3426
3061
2409
1815
1528

29
1976
2268
2098
2303
2131
2358
2449
2661
2682
2374
1888
1409

2
35786
30518
26882
22962
28102
23771
17049
19339
20253
17648
15136

5
37191
35374
30147
26530
22595
27735
23498
16836
19095
19972
17439

8
37061
35728
33771
28837
25162
21597
26655
22555
16179
18339
19193

11
31211
34575
33098
31313
26549
23367
20194
24890
21074
15095
17141

14
25888
28307
31047
29833
27989
23901
21258
18334
22638
19140
13720

17
20127
22825
24639
27162
25816
24486
21146
18782
16211
19992
16932

20
13608
17275
19300
20842
22833
21829
21088
18180
16166
13932
17200

23
12629
11352
14221
15966
17040
18794
18291
17635
15226
13519
11678

26
6823
10266
9110
11405
12722
13649
15325
14878
14375
12391
11011

29
705
5393
8035
7027
8829
9882
10830
12123
11795
11368
9815

32

35

38

41

44

1478
1511
1587
1631
1505
1670
1904
2076
2089
1858
1458

1028
1149
1139
1215
1092
1303
1484
1610
1630
1440

799
811
858
883
848
1017
1148
1255
1259

577
611
634
688
661
788
894
965

428
464
494
539
515
618
688

32

35

38

41

44

542
4091
6054
5312
6693
7625
8338
9350
9081
8765

388
3094
4596
4045
5165
5863
6432
7195
7000

238
2344
3501
3120
3971
4516
4943
5545

157
1799
2700
2395
3061
3471
3806

111
1389
2082
1847
2349
2679

(b) Area V
Nya
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004

Tables 5. Sensitivity in estimates of the natural mortality rates M (/year) in Area IV and V(a) Area IV
Groping
3 years
2 years(b) Area V
Groping
3 years
2 yearsm
30
36

Esimates of M (/year)
0.0788 (0.0621, 0.0957)
0.0753 (0.0514, 0.0944)

Esimates of M (/year) in SC/54/IA25
0.070 (0.036, 0.093)
-

30
36

0.0734 (0.0573, 0.0895)
0.0695 (0.0534, 0.0856)

-

m
30
36

Esimates of M (/year)
0.0497 (0.0335, 0.0644)
0.0507 (0.0349, 0.0689)

Esimates of M (/year) in SC/54/IA25
0.0480 (0.011, 0.095)
-

30
36

0.0506 (0.0337, 0.0675)
0.0517 (0.0348, 0.0686)-

11
The values in parentheses show 90% confidence intervals. The value m is the maximum age usedin the log-likelihood for catch-at-age. The estimates in SC/54/IA25 were obtained using the data up
to 2001 in Area IV and 1998 in Area V.

(a) Area IV
The estimated total population sizes and the abundance estimates in Area IV
160000140000

Nest
JARPA
IDCR

120000100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

(b) Area V
The estimated total population sizes and the abundance estimates in Area V

350000300000250000200000150000

Nest
JARPA
IDCR

100000
50000
0
1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Figure 1. Plots of the total population size estimated by VPA with the abundance estimates used astuning factors in Area IV and V for the baseline case.

12

0.10
0.08
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

M.est

0.06
0.00

0.02

0.04

M.est

0.08

0.10

0.12

Area V

0.12

Area IV

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.2

0.4

g(0)

0.6

0.8

1.0

g(0)

Figure 2. Sensitivity to the change in g(0) for the baseline scenario. Solid line: estimate of M ; dashedline: 95% limits.

0.10
0.00

0.05

M.est
0.00

0.05

M.est

0.10

0.15

Area V

0.15

Area IV

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.1

CVadd

0.2

0.3

0.4

CVadd

Figure 3. Sensitivity to the change in the amount of the additional variance for the baseline scenario.
Solid line: estimate of M : dashed line: 95% limits for the baseline scenario.

13