Mr Hazrat Mir
Chief Meteorologist PMD

Rationale
PMD is extensively involved in meteringand modeling the water resource
Since Meteorology is the fundamental
basis of Integrated Water Resources
Management, PMD is implementing tools
and technologies for effective use ofGEOSS data in water sector

Rationale

In line with GOALS of GEOSS-AWCI,
new projects have been initiated incooperation
withinternational
agencies to improve predictability,
andinterprettheinformation
applicabletovarious
water
environments in Pakistan
The outcomes are contributing tomitigate
water-related
disasters
through effective Early Warnings.

Projects related to Water Sector

IFAS Project Phase I
IFAS Project Phase IIGLOF Project Phase I
GLOF Project Phase II
Specialized Medium Range Forecasting
Center (SMRFC) ProjectDrought Monitoring & Early Warning Project4

Regional Meteorological Centres(located at Provincial Capitals)•Karachi•Lahore•Peshawar•Quetta•Gilgit-Baltistan

Observatories = 97(Districts)
AWS = 20

OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES OF PMD

Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a
specialized unit of PMD for this purpose.

Responsibilitiesi.

Flood Forecastingii.

River stream flow forecastingiii

Water availability Forecast for Dams

iv. Assisting Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon

6Floods - 20107

Floods - 20118

Economic Impact of Major Disasters
Since 2005
Average
Impact ofDisaster

Major Flood
Event Impact(Forecasted)

Annual Economic
Impact$1.2-1.8
Billion$15.5
Billion% of GDP

0.5 - 0.8%

7%

% of Federal
Budget3 – 4%

40%

Source: Fiscal Risk Assessment Options for Consideration, A Study by World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster
Reduction and Recovery ( ( GFDRR,) 2015

Pak Flood Hazard Map

FloodsFlood2010-2014
VulnerabilityFlood 2011

Flood
2012
Flood
2013
Flood
2014
2010
Cumulative
Flood
Extent10Preparation and Dissemination of Flood Forecast(15th June to 15th October)Analysis of Meteorological
Condition

Analysis Hydrological
Condition/Parameter•Analysis of different Wx Charts,(Surface, upper, 0000UTC to onward
as desire)•Study analyzed Wx charts anddifferent models through theirwebsites•Study the HRM Modelproducts(PMD website)•Study the GFS Model & othermodels•Rainfall data from PMD stations•Rainfall, Discharge data, WAPDA,Irrigation, PCIW
•Rim Station and below Rim Station dataof all rivers(Hydrological Form)•Out put of FEWS & CLS Model•Out put of PMD developed Model•GFS Model•Latest all Wx/Doppler Radar Data
•Latest Satellite Imagery

ConferenceGroup discussion of 6-7 Meteorologist andHydrologist

Issuance of Flood Forecast Bulletins

Dissemination
Dissemination ThroughMedia for Public & Concerned Authorities
also•Electronic Media•Print Media•RadioFurther Technique
Statistical Technique & Empirical Technique•Uploaded on website•5-fax machines•PMD’s website (Click Flood Update)•Most concerned persons informedon telephones•SMS to very Concerns•Live beeper on Television and Radio•In Camera interview on TV etc•Daily Press Conference•Attended meeting with local Govt.
on Critical Situations•Bulletin A & Bulletin B (For next 24-hours)•Early Warning: different Significant
Warning/Advisory as and when required fora particular area

Concerned Agencies•FFC (Federal Flood Commission)•NDMA(National Disaster ManagementAuthority)•Prime Minister/President Relief•Commissioner•Irrigation Department•WAPDA•Pak. Army
11
•All Provincial Govt. etc and 300 agencies

World largest contiguous Irrigation System(US$ 300 Million); (RIVERS OF PAKISTAN)

WESTERN
RIVERS

Population
180 M
Cultivable Area
73 Ma
Irrigated Area
36 Ma
Major Storage Reservoirs
3Barrages
19
Main Canals
45
Link Canals
12
Small Dams (approx 3 MAF) 140

EASTERN
RIVERSPak GLOF Hazard Map

GLOF Vulnerability

14

Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early
Warning Centre
ProjectComponents
National Centre for Drought/
Environment Monitoring
Regional Drought Centre

15

Pak Drought Hazard Map

Drought Vulnerability

16

Satellite Products being used for Drought Monitoring17

Global Climate Impact on Pakistan
Displacements
SocietalImpacts

InconsistentBehaviour ofMonsoonHeavy
DownpoursHigh Intensity Rainsin Short Duration

MeltingGlaciers
ExtremeClimateEvents

Variable Intensity

Northern Areas

Summers are Becoming
Hotter16
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012

Temperature

Annual Mean Temperatures (°C) Trends• 1901-2014
Pakistan
19

18

17

Years

Rate of Change = 0.10°C per DecadeClimate Change Trends over Pakistan• The slope of the mean annual temperature over Pakistan
during the 48-year period 1960-2007 was found as:

1901-2000
1960-2007

0.06 °C per decade0.24 °C per decade• The rate of increase is higher than the rate of increase
observed globally21

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Temperature Anomaly ( o C)

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Area Weighted Anomaly
10Years Moving Average

700.0

Pakistan_Average Annual Rainfall (1901-2010)
600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

All_Pakistan_Rainfall_Annual

1901-1954

1955-20102009

20052001

1997

1993

1989

1985

1981

1977

1973

1969

1965

1961

1957

1953

1949

1945

1941

1937

1933

1929

1925

1921

1917

1913

1909

1905

1901

0.0

10 区間移動平均 (All_Pakistan_Rainfall_Annual)Average Temperature of Northern Areas of Pakistan (1901-2009)
based on Climate Research Unit (CRU data
1.5

Total Change in 109 yrs = 1.1 °C

1

0-0.5
y = 0.011x - 0.7871-1-1.5

2009

2006

2003

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

1958

1955

1952

1949

1946

1943

1940

1937

1934

1931

1928

1925

1922

1919

1916

1913

1910

1907

1904

-2
1901

Ave_Temperature

0.5Max Temp. >40 °C

69 daysFrequency

54
10 days36 days

26 days

5 days

1981-85

1986-90

8 days10
1991-95

1996-00

Period

2001-05

2006-10

Emissions – where Pakistan Stands on theclimate front?
One of the lowest per capita emitters

Impacts–Pakistan Vulnerabilities analysis in thecontext of climate impacts
Yet one of the worst victims of climate change& best examples of climate injustice

Maplecroft vulnerability index places us in High/Extreme category /Columbia Univ indx does the same (http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate)

Water is security issue
CLIMATE CHANGE Glacier DEPLETION

Water pollution Siltation in Mega DamIncreasing water deficit
Water sharing issue

Water Security• Water Sector: Current Status and Vulnerability– Pakistan is extremely short of fresh water resources.
– Water-stressed country water availability heading
towards less than 1000 cubic meter/y by 2035 (WB2006).
– Pakistan’s primary sources of water are rainfall (50maf ) by monsoon and westerly winds and river
inflows (141 maf) in the Indus River System fed byglaciers and snowmelt from the HindukushKarakoram-Himalayas.
32

Water Security (Con)– The shares of main contributing rivers to the IRS inPakistan are:
1. Indus: 44%,
2.
Chenab: 19%,3.
Jhelum: 16%,
4.
Kabul: 16% and Others: 5%.
• The per capita availability of river water, which
was 5,650 cubic meter/y in 1951
• and 1000 cubic meter/y in 2010, is expected todecline further to 800 cubic meter/y till 2026.

 World population isgrowing 80 million peryear (Pakistan growingrate is 3 million per year) In 2050, world population
expects to be increased
to 9.7 billion (expected
Pakistan population is+300 million)

Condition of Per Capita Availability withexpected increased Rainfall by 2025

Source: WWF2003-04

2001-02

1999-00

1997-98

1995-96

1993-9435

1991-92

1989-90

1987-88

1985-86

1983-84

1981-82

1979-80

1977-78

1975-76

1973-74

1971-72

1969-70

1967-68

1965-66

42

1963-64

1961-62

Annual flows in maf

Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India – as a result of Indus Water Treaty

Eastern Rivers Ravi and Sutlej component at Balloki andSulamanki
Ravi + Sutlej

28

R2 = 0.56

21

14

70

Water Security• Pakistan’s rivers are
predominantly fed by Hindu
Kush, Karakoram and Himalyan
glaciers. These are receding due
to climate change

Pakistan’s Cryospheric Assets
Number Area of Glaciersof Glaciers
(km2)
7259

11780

Volume ofIce (km3)

Ranges2066

Himalaya
Karakoram
HindukushResponse of Glacial
Resources to ClimateChange

Vulnerabilities of the region andNeed for strengthening the early warning system
Climate of Pakistan- Extreme Weather Events
Pakistan is historically prone to Extreme Weather Events/Disasters,such as;Extreme Heat in May/June

Snow-melt Flooding
Heavy Rains/River Flooding

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Urban Flooding

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Cyclones/Coastal Flooding Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)
Water Crises/Droughts

Dry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain)

In Pakistan, more than 70% Extreme Weather Events areassociated with Monsoon Season

Role of PMD in Water Sector
Development & Management
Planningand DesignConstruction
Management

PMD

Pakistan Meteorological Department

ISSUES• Existing Capability?
Weather prediction capability limited due to lack of met-data andadvanced technology for aviation services (wind profilers)• Hydrological Data?
Lack of real time hydrological data (Radars, AWS, Telemetric…).
Trans-boundary data for eastern rivers not available.

Lack of GLOF monitoring & Flash Flood Warning System• Seismic Network?
Lacking in Tsunami warning system & Seismic monitoring network• Human Resource?
Limited Career Progression & Retention of qualified staff (PhD)
No capacity development with new & advanced technology
No incentives (SPS & Research Allowance) for Scientists and fieldforce at remote areas• Awareness?
Lack of awareness due to dissemination system (TV, Radio,Cell...)• Cost-Benefit Ratio?
Climate Change - Investment of One dime in advance can save4336 dime.

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Summary of Requiremen
Rs. Million

SN

Description

Remarks

Radars•12 New•5 Replacement• 40 New, 430 AWS•10 Agro-met•8 Wind Profilers (Aviation)

Provinces

Met Data(Observation Network)
Flood Warning Centers

Federal Govt

Regional Centers• 5 Centers (Provincial)

GLOF• 20 Stations in GB & Chitral

Flash Flood WC• 8 Vulnerable Sites (Hill Torrents)
10 Stations(Tsunami & Micro-seismicity)
TV/FM Radio/Cell

Seismic Data
Awareness
Technology
Capacity Development

Federal Govt

HPCC(High Power Computer Clustered)
Scientists skill according to new &advanced technology

Federal Govt
Federal Govt
Federal Govt
Federal Govt
44UNDERSTAND the Climate Risk
COMMUNICATE the Climate Risk

Thank you!