NIRA Report
Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction
following the Great East Japan Earthquake

Copyright Ⓒ 2011 by
National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA)
Publisher
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4-20-3, Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-6034, Japan(URL:http://www.nira.or.jp/english)
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Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction following theGreat East Japan Earthquake
Recovery and Reconstruction Indexes Research Team

1. Overview of the Research: Background and Issues
Half a year has passed since the enormously destructive Great East Japan
Earthquake. During this period, a variety of efforts towards recovery andreconstruction have been advanced in the area struck by the disaster. The level ofprogress towards recovery and reconstruction as a result of these efforts and thestatus of economic activity in the region are reported daily via the news media, butlittle attempt is being made to utilize available data to systematically graspchanges in the status of progress.
The National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA) therefore commenced
a project which sought to formulate indexes for recovery and reconstruction
following the Great East Japan Earthquake, and examined methods of gaining asystematic understanding of the status of progress in these areas.
The formulation of indexes in this project must be seen as purely experimental,
because the data gathered for the project cannot be considered to have been
entirely adequate. As essential data was not made available to the public, it wasnecessary to forgo the use of a great deal of potential data. It is our hopenevertheless that this trial can serve to encourage the advancement of future
recovery and reconstruction efforts in the area struck by the disaster throughconsiderations based on data, and, at the same time, to promote examination by
the government of effective modes of collection and publication of data in the eventof disasters of this type.

2. Formulation of the Indexes of Recovery and Reconstruction
The indexes formulated during the course of this project synthesize some tens ofrelated indicators in order to show changes in the status of recovery andreconstruction in the region struck by the tsunami generated by the Great East
Japan Earthquake (37 cities, towns and villages 1 / Three prefectures).
1“37 cities, towns and villages” refers to those coastal municipalities in the three1

Two indexes were formulated: An index expressing the status of recovery of basic
infrastructure, and an index expressing the status of activity, for example in theareas of production and distribution.
The index for the status of recovery of basic infrastructure is an attempt tonumerically express the status of recovery, given that the ability of those affected
to rapidly resume normal lives is the top priority immediately following a disaster.
The rates of recovery of relevant items have been simply averaged, and this index
can therefore be indicated as expressing the overall rate of recovery of basic
infrastructure. The research team had intended as much as possible to collect dataat the city, town and village level in order to achieve a detailed grasp of the statusof recovery, but it proved difficult to obtain data at this level in certain areas,
including data concerning the status of displaced persons, the status of orders for
public works projects, and the status of the activities of workers in the fields ofhealthcare and education.
The index expressing the status of activity attempts to offer an understanding,over a time series, of the status of the victims of the disaster and their regions in
respect of the degree to which activity in specific regions was affected by thedisaster, and how smoothly reconstruction is proceeding. In addition to standard
economic indicators, the data series employed included the fish catch for thefisheries industry, which brings in the industrial structure of the region, amount of
payment of fees for medical services, and the number of passengers using regional
airports and the volume of freight shipped through the airports. The index thatsynthesizes these data series expresses a level for each month, with February 2011,
the month before the disaster, as 100, and enables comparisons with changes inthe status of economic activity over time, and comparisons between the threeaffected prefectures or with national figures. Positive changes in this index
indicate that activity is increasing, while negative changes indicate that activity isstagnating.
Published data were processed according to fixed criteria, and indexes wereexperimentally formulated to express the level of recovery in each city, town andvillage focused on. The calculation of these indexes did not incorporate any
intention to evaluate efforts towards recovery and reconstruction in these cities,
towns and villages.

affected Tohoku prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima) which contain areas (asdesignated by the Ministry of the Environment) in which the March 11 tsunami
deposited large amounts of debris such as rubble from destroyed houses and buildings.
There are 12 such municipalities in Iwate Prefecture, 15 in Miyagi Prefecture, and 10
in Fukushima Prefecture.

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3. Status of Three Prefectures in the Tohoku Region as Expressedby Indexes of Recovery and Reconstruction(1) Index expressing the status of recovery of basic infrastructure
The index expressing the status of recovery of basic infrastructure is synthesizedfrom the following indicators.
<Data series>
Ratio of number of residents of evacuee centers to the population of cities, towns
and villages (negative indicator), ratio of number of evacuees within the prefecture
and outside the prefecture to the population of cities, towns and villages (negative
indicator), rate of recovery of electricity, rate of recovery of gas, rate of recovery ofrailways, rate of recovery of highways, ratio of number of hospital facilities topre-earthquake figures, ratio of number of medical facilities to pre-earthquake
figures, rate of removal of rubble, number of workers dispatched from other local
administrations, ratio of donations and insurance payments to total cost of damage,ratio of loans to total cost of damage, ratio of number of convenience stores topre-earthquake figures (13 data series in total)
Figure 1 shows trends in the index synthesized from these data series.
Figure 1 Trends in index expressing status of recovery of basic infrastructure0
Mar‐11
Apr‐1120

40

Rate of recovery

60

80

100

0
Mar‐11

47.1
61.2

Apr‐11

May‐11
Jun‐1120

40

Rate of recovery

60

80

100

0
Mar‐11

52.2

20

40

Rate of recovery

Apr‐11

63.5

68.1

May‐11

73.5

May‐11

68.0

72.9

Jun‐11

74.9

Jun‐11

69.0

Jul‐11

77.1

Jul‐11

76.3

Jul‐11

69.7

Aug‐11

79.6

Aug‐11

77.2

Aug‐11

70.5

Miyagi Prefecture

80

51.4

67.6

Iwate Prefecture

60

Fukushima Prefecture

Note：March, when the earthquake occurred, is referred to as “Immediately after earthquake”

Study of the status of recovery of basic infrastructure in the three prefectures in
the Tohoku region under consideration shows that each is gradually recovering.
However, while recovery is steady in Iwate, the pace of recovery is rather slow inFukushima Prefecture by comparison.
Consideration of individual data series (please refer to reference materials)
shows that recovery of electricity, gas, railways and highways has proceeded
rapidly since the immediate post-disaster period, and recovery was largely
complete by April in areas in which houses and public infrastructure had not been
swept away or destroyed. By contrast, the disbursement of funds including
donated monies and the removal of rubble are among areas in which little progress

3

100

can be seen. Of these, there are significant differences in the status of the removalof rubble between different areas. The disbursement of donations, loans, and otherfunds is essential to the recommencement of normal life and the reactivation ofbusiness. It will be necessary to give close attention to the background todifferences in this area and the ways in which delays in disbursement affectrecovery. With regard to medical facilities in the area struck by the disaster,
recovery is largely complete although it may be optimistic assessment as
temporary medical examination is defined as recovery. It should be also noted thatthese areas have suffered from the shortage of medical services. It is to be hopedthat access to healthcare and welfare services will be rapidly restored to provide
help to victims of the disaster in these regions which have a high proportion ofelderly citizens.
Furthermore, the number of evacuees outside the prefecture is increasing inFukushima Prefecture, and many students and pupils are transferring to otherschool. Detailed policy responses are necessary for those people.
(2) Index expressing status of activity
Two versions of the index expressing the status of activity were formulated as anexperiment. One of these versions is comparatively closely linked to the status of
the region, while the other incorporates flows of people and goods, using data
concerning the number of passengers using regional airports and the number of
freight shipments handled. The indexes specifically synthesize the following
indicators.
<Data series: Version 1>
Volume of transactions in agricultural wholesale markets, ratio of job openings to
job seekers, amount of payment of fees for medical services, fisheries catch,
Industrial Production Index, volume of power used by large users, sales figures forlarge retail stores, number of housing starts, number of business bankruptcies(negative indicator) (Nine data series in total)<Data series: Version II>
Adds number of passengers at regional airports and volume of freight handled atregional airports to data series for Version 1 (Total of eleven data series)
Figure 2 is a plot of trends in the index synthesizing the Version I data series,
with figures for February 2011 as 100.

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Figure 2 Trends in index expressing status of activity (Version I)(Feb 2011 = 100)

120
100
80
Whole country

60

Iwate Prefecture
Miyagi Prefecture

40

Fukushima Prefecture

20
0Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun.
2010

2011

A survey of the status of activity in the three prefectures in the Tohoku region
under consideration indicates that the earthquake had a powerful impact. Sales
figures for large retail stores, industrial production, and large-scale power use
declined significantly in all the prefectures in March. However, in April, all of thesefigures rebounded positively against the previous month, and overall trends
reversed in all the prefectures. Following this, the index maintained basically flat
profiles for May and June. Considering trends by prefecture, we see that the
decline in sales figures for large retail stores, the Industrial Productivity Index,
and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, was greater in Miyagi Prefecture thanin the other prefectures. It will also be necessary to focus on trends in the fisheries
catch, given that the fishing season will be commencing later in the year.
Payments of fees for medical services, which had declined in March, recovered in
April. However, considering that the number of people requiring medical
consultations increased in the disaster zone and evacuated outside the prefecture,
it is possible that standard consultations and examinations such as checkups may
have been postponed. A more detailed study, including examination of healthinsurance claims, will be necessary in this area.
Next, we will consider Version II of the index expressing the status of activity,
which incorporates the number of passengers and the volume of freight shipped atregional airports (Figure 3).
In this version, the impact of the disaster is felt most strongly in Miyagi
Prefecture. This is due to the fact that the effect of the disaster on Sendai Airport
had an enormous impact on freight shipment and passenger transport. Hanamaki
Airport in Iwate Prefecture and Fukushima Airport in Fukushima Prefecture arelocated inland, and thus avoided being damaged by the tsunami. Each of the5annual volume of freight shipped through Hanamaki Airport and Fukushima
Airport is less that 10 percent that of Sendai Airport. The effect of the damage tothis hub for human movement and distribution of goods is significant to increase
those through substitutive route, and it will be necessary to give attention to theeffect of this factor on reconstruction in Miyagi Prefecture.
Figure 3 Trends in index expressing status of activity (Version II)(Feb 2011 = 100)

120
100
80
60
Whole country
Iwate Prefecture
Miyagi Prefecture
Fukushima Prefecture

40
20
0

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun.
2010

2011

4. Status of Recovery in Cities, Towns and Villages as Expressed byData
The study indicated that overall, recovery is proceeding steadily in the 37 cities,
towns and villages focused on. This is, it goes without saying, an effect of the factthat despite the unprecedented scale of the tsunami disaster, the government andlocal authorities, residents of the region, and institutions including the SDF, thepolice, and electricity and gas utilities, are working tirelessly to achieve recovery in
the region as quickly as possible. We hope that in future, using this data as areference, the government will provide a greater level of practical and financial
support to regions which need time for recovery.
Looking at the differences between individual cities, towns and villages, we findthat the level of recovery is affected by the rate of recovery of rail transport, therate of clearance of rubble, the rate of disbursement of donations and compensation
payments. The ten local authorities which have achieved the greatest level ofrecovery in these areas can be classified together as follows.

6Figure4

Cities,

towns

and

villages

displaying the most rapid recovery▪ Cities, towns and villages displaying
steady recovery overall(Iwaizumi, Iwate Prefecture; Fudai,
Iwate Prefecture, Hirono, Iwate
Prefecture)▪ Cities, towns and villages displaying
steady recovery, despite the fact thatthe clearance of rubble remains an
issue(Miyako, Iwate Prefecture; Kuji, Iwate
Prefecture; Rifu, Miyagi Prefecture)▪ Cities, towns and villages in which
the early recovery of gas, electricity,
roads, etc. is boosting overall recovery,
despite the continued effect of anumber of issues(Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture; Natori,
Miyagi Prefecture; Iwanuma, Miyagi
Prefecture;
Shiogama,
MiyagiPrefecture)
Recovery efforts were at a standstillin most of the cities, towns and villages
considered in Fukushima Prefecture.
The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi
Nuclear Power Station represents asignificant factor in this.

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NIRA Team for Indexes for Recovery and Reconstruction

Hidehiko Ichimura

Professor, the University of Tokyo

Noriyuki Yanagawa

Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo /Executive Vice President, NIRA

Yasuyuki Sawada

Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo

Reiko Kanda

Senior Director, NIRA

Naoko Mori

Research Coordinator & Senior Researcher, NIRA

Tetsushi Saito

Senior Researcher, NIRA

Daisuke Yoneoka

The University of Tokyo

What’s NIRA?

The National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA) is an independent, private-sector research
institute which defines urgent policy issues and formulates bold and timely policy proposals, seeking tocontribute to the revitalization and further development of Japanese society and the Japanese economy.
Utilizing a network of scholars, researchers, and specialists in a wide range of subjects, NIRA works forthe public benefit from a fair and neutral perspective, attempting to reinvigorate policy debate andcontribute to the process of policy formation in Japan. The institute focuses on domestic social andeconomic policy, international relations, and regional issues in Japan as its principal areas of research.
Established in 1974 as a government-authorized independent research institution, NIRA became anincorporated foundation in 2007, and since February 2011 has been recognized as a Public Interest
Incorporated Foundation.

National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA), Japan
Yebisu Garden Place Tower, 34th Floor
4-20-3, Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-6034, Japan
Tel: 81-3-5448-1735 Fax:81-3-5448-1743 E-mail: info@nira.or.jp
URL:http://www.nira.or.jp/english