NOWCASTING BRIEF #1
Key developments June 2023 – December 2023

What is UNHCR’s Nowcasting?
UNHCR publishes official statistics on forced displacement twice a year on the Refugee DataFinder. The statistics are published 4-6 months after the end of the reporting period due tothe time needed for data collation, validation and verification. For example, UNHCR’s annualstatistics are published in June and reflect the situation as of December in the previous year.
However, given the fast-changing nature of many of today’s displacement situations, more
timely statistics on forcibly displaced populations are increasingly important.
Nowcasting - predicting the very recent past or the present - helps to estimate numbers insituations where statistics are not sufficiently timely. In humanitarian and development
situations, where collecting up-to-date statistics is challenging, nowcasting can be used toovercome reporting delays.
UNHCR has developed nowcasting of refugee and asylum-seeker population statistics, withestimates produced for the previous month on a rolling basis. When new official statistics arereleased, the nowcasted estimates are realigned. The nowcasting therefore usefully provides
an estimate of the changes in the size of refugee and asylum-seeker populations since the last
published set of official statistics.

How many refugees and asylum-seekers are therecurrently?
31.8 million

6.8 million

Refugees

Asylum-seekers

at end of December at end of December(Nowcasting)(Nowcasting)30.5 million

6.1 million

Refugees

Asylum-seekers

at end of Juneat end of June

(Official Statistics)(Official Statistics)

At the end of December 2023, the nowcasted global refugee population is estimated to havegrown to 31.8 million. This represents an increase of 1.3 million or 4 percent compared to thelatest official figures from the end of June. The nowcasted global asylum-seeker population
stands at 6.8 million (+726,000, 12 per cent) at the end of December.

https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/

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NOWCASTING BRIEF #1 > June 2023 – December 2023

Refugees and As um ee ers g o a

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Refugees latest o cial sta s cs

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Refugees Nowcas ng

sylum see ers Nowcas ngec.

The figures above refer only to refugees under UNHCR’s mandate. By mid-year 2023, there
were an additional 5.9 million Palestine refugees under UNRWA’s mandate, as well as 5.3
million other people in need of international protection. Figures for both of these populations
are not included in the nowcasting.

Key population changes since June 2023
In Sudan, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Reaction
Forces commenced in April in Khartoum and quickly spread to other parts of the country. By
mid-year, almost a quarter of a million Sudanese, and over 163,000 people of othernationalities – mostly refugees previously living in Sudan – had fled to neighbouring countries.
By the end of 2023, refugee populations from Sudan in neighbouring countries – South Sudan,Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic and Egypt – witnessed significant increases according
to nowcasting estimates for December.
Estimates for refugees fleeing the war in Sudan are sourced from UNHCR’s registrationdatabase ProGres, as well as operational estimates of populations that remained unregisteredby the end of December. As people are registered as refugees in ProGres, they are periodicallyremoved from the operational estimates. Estimates for refugees of other nationalities, whocontinue to reside in Sudan, have not been available since mid-year, therefore likely
undercounting return movements from Sudan to their countries of origin.

https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/

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NOWCASTING BRIEF #1 > June 2023 – December 2023

Refugees and As um ee ers from udanune,

Chad,,gypt,,outh udan,,thiopia,

Central frican
Repu lic,,

Nowcas ng for end ofecem er

atest o cial sta s cs for end of une

In the last week of September 2023, following renewed hostilities in the South Caucasus
region, more than 100,000 refugees have fled to Armenia from Azerbaijan. By the end of theyear, the number of refugees in Armenia is nowcasted to have reached almost 140,000.
Nowcasting estimates for new refugee arrivals in Armenia are sourced from statistics
published by the Government of Armenia.
The United States of America continues to be the largest recipient of new asylum applications
between June and December according to nowcasting estimations. As new asylum applications- predominantly by nationals of Latin America and Caribbean countries - outpace decisions on
asylum claims, the number of asylum-seekers pending a decision on their claims increased
sharply to nearly 2.7 million (+472,000). Nowcasting estimates for new asylum applications
and decisions on asylum claims in the United States of America are sourced from monthly data
published the USCIS (United States Citizenship and Immigration Services) and the EOIR(Executive Office for Immigration Review).

Methodological improvements
UNHCR strives to further improve the accuracy of the nowcasting estimate. During the last six
months of 2023, a number of changes were made in order to improve the accuracy of theseestimates.
Data sources with smaller margins of error were identified and included in the nowcasting
estimates for refugees and asylum-seekers in Libya, Mexico, Costa Rica and Brazil. Thesesources include UNHCR’s internal registration database and statistics sourced fromgovernment entities. Nowcasting figures for Ukrainian refugees were more closely aligned toreported figures of Ukrainian nationals receiving temporary protection granted by European
Union Member States and published by Eurostat.

https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/

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NOWCASTING BRIEF #1 > June 2023 – December 2023

In addition, the statistical models used in the nowcasting are regularly reviewed and, wherepossible, further optimized. Improvements were made for estimates derived from the gravity
model. This model has been developed by UNHCR and predicts refugee and asylum-seeker
stock figures by using historical asylum data along with other factors such as the presence andintensity of conflicts, and violent events, socio-economic variables, political, cultural andhistorical factors as well as geographic proximity. Improvements have also been made to themodels for interpolating quarterly data from Eurostat or the UK.

Limitations
Nowcasted population figures are estimates and should not be considered as official statistics.
As with all empirical methods, the estimates have limitations.
During the biannual collation of official statistics, UNHCR conducts a rigorous qualityassurance of the available country statistics. During this quality assurance, errors in operational
data such as double counting, overestimation or underestimation are identified and, wherepossible, corrected. For the nowcasting estimates, the emphasis is on timeliness rather thanother quality dimensions. This means that errors in source data will propagate into thenowcasting estimates until corrections are made, either by the data source or during the quality
assurance in subsequently published official statistics. Primarily for this reason, the nowcasting
estimates are aligned every six months with the official statistics as they are released.
Similarly, during the data collation for official statistics, stock estimates may sometimes beadjusted for methodological reasons. These adjustments will only be reflected in thenowcasting when new official statistics are published.
Lastly, given the constraints in the timeliness of the source data for some host countries, it is
not always possible to include the latest data prior to the 15th when the nowcasting figures
are published. In these instances, data from the previous month is carried forwards.

Contacts
If you have any questions, feedback or suggestions for improving the nowcasting data, please
do let us know using the email below.
Statistics and Demographics Section
UNHCR Global Data Service
UN City, Marmorvej 51
2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
stats@unhcr.org

https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/4