Project Subjects
Energy Technology Strategy
Background and Objective
Policy management and implementation based on long-term energy technology development and diffusion is necessary for preventing global warming. In the project, we analyze (1) energy efﬁciency policies, (2) shift
from direct combustion to electricity use, and (3) low carbonization of electricity sector, and trends of the global
climate change policy and the energy supply and demand in order to harmonize the prevention of global warming,the economy, energy security through electriﬁcation.

Main results
1. Renewable Energy Technology Policy(1) Renewable energy is a high cost climate change mitigation option, and especially Photo Voltaic (PV)ʼsCO2 reduction cost exceeds 100,000 yen/t-CO2. (2)PV generation cost would be decreased no more than 12 yen/
kWh (Figure 1) and the CO2 reduction cost 44,000 yen/t-CO2, even if we install PV up to the maximum domestic
capacity (173GW) and reduce generation costs based on the learning curve methodology. In addition, the learning
rates have declined in recent years. Thus we conclude that a large amount of PV installation by massive governmental support is a less cost-effectiveness policy [Y09020]. (3) We identiﬁed four direct technological progress
factors, research and development (R&D), the learning effect through both in production and use processes, andspillover effects from other technology progress as a result of arranging present scientiﬁc knowledge concerning
the technological progress to search for cost reduction factors of renewable and energy saving technology (Fig. 2).
But on the other hand, it is difﬁcult to paint a precise picture of the relative importance of these factors [Y09026].
2. Energy Saving and efﬁciency Policy
We found that the impact of Japanese Energy Conservation Law varies among ﬁrms, while many of theregulated ﬁrms were effectively encouraged to obtain basic tools for energy management by law, most of themseemed to neither make use of the tools nor start additional energy saving activities [Y09010]. We conclude
that small and medium ﬁrms, even large companies, face lack of energy efﬁciency specialists, and remain large
potentials for energy efﬁciency, based on the survey of three energy audit programs by ECCJ(Energy Conservation Center, Japan), NEDO, and Energy Efﬁciency Measures in Commercial Buildings under the Tokyo CO2Emission Reduction Program (Table.1) [Y09009] [ Y09012].
3. International Climate Change Policy & Trends of Energy Supply and Demand(1) The historical signiﬁcance of the Copenhagen Accord observed by COP15 in 2009 is its bottomup approach in which countries domestically determine their policies and targets to control emissions throughinternational review, instead of the top-down approach like the Kyoto Protocol which penalizes non-compliancecountries [Y09007]. (2) Although most developed countries have declared very ambicuous CO2 reduction targets,
it is unclear if their long-term emissions reductions are on track [Y09023]. (3) Concerning the long-term priceelasticity of energy demand, utilized to understand the middle-term and the long-term inﬂuence of price changes,
we should carefully understand the results of analyses because there is no consensus for the deﬁnition and valueof elasticity.
Other reports
78[Y09003] [Y09013] [Y09019][ Y09021] [Y09022]

Environmental and Energy Utilization Technology
Acquiring knowledge in other purposes,Activity for technological progressTechnologyProgress
R&D

Load on top of Knowledge andtechnology progress

R&D

SpilloverActivity forTechnology
TechnologicalProgress
Progress

LBU

LBD

Diffusion
Economicsof Scale

User：Factors of Technology ProgressFig. 1 Generating cost estimate in the future of PV
that considers the learning rates calculated
by each devices*The estimate of learning rates: learning rates of all patterns
for a period for ten years or more was measured from theprice data of 1993-2008 years according to the devices of PV.
Figures will be cost for future presumed when the median ofeach device is used.
**Generating unit price: Average power generation unit priceof the life when assuming utilization rates 12%, interest rate4%, maintenance fee 1%, and 20 life years.

Fig. 2 Various factors of the technologicalprogress and its surrounded structure
R&D: Research and development
LBD: Leaning by Doing
LBU: Leaning by Using
Spillover: Spread effects from technological progress for other purposes

Table.1 Cost-effectiveness of the energy audit programs by ECCJ and NEDO (average of each audit)Energy
Cost
Efficiency
Reduction Effects
Audit fees
Reductioneffectiveness inequipmentsof heating and(per one
Effects(persocial(per oneelectricity expensesaudit) aone audit)c
perspective daudit)(per one audit) b
Small and medium
3.07-11,000YEN/kL
0.41million
4.45 million
firms programs
million
92kL -6,100YEN/t-CO2
YEN
YEN(ECCJ）
YEN
20.37-6,600YEN/kL
Large firms
3.33million
32.26 million
million
1,290kL -3,800YEN/t-CO2（NEDO）
YEN
YEN
YEN
Both the energy reduction cost and CO2 reduction cost from the social perspective negative values are taken. This showsthat the utility bill reduction convenience exceeds the execution cost and the amount of capital investment of the conservation of energy diagnosis, and CO2 can be reduced while putting out convenience.
Notes : kL are all the crude oil equivalents (Electricity is converted as primary energy).
a: Energy Audit spending from governmental budget
b: Reduction effect (=c) × unit price of energy (25,000JPY-60,000 JPY/crude oil equivalent kL)
c: Rate of reduction amount estimate × execution (30%-46%) × achievement rate (50%) × years of continuation byproposed measures (3 years -7years)
d: (audits fee + equipments expenses- heating and electricity expenses)//reduction effectCO2 emission intensity: 1.7t-CO2/crude oil equivalent kL

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