SC/67a/SP

Progress report of the work conducted in response to JARPNII
research recommendations by the IWC Scientific Committee
Tsutomu Tamura1, Toshihide Kitakado2 and Luis A. Pastene11Institute of Cetacean Research, Toyomicho 4-5, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0055, JapanTokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan 5-7-4, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8477, Japan

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ABSTRACTThe 2016 report of the Expert Panel final review of JARPNII provided several scientific recommendations for
additional analyses related to the main three objectives of the JARPNII. The recommendations, that the
proponents consider useful in refining some of the analyses, were endorsed by the International Whaling
Commission Scientific Committee (IWC SC) meeting in 2016. The IWC SC also agreed on a timeframe tocomplete the analyses. While the final review of the JARPNII program was duly completed in accordance with
Annex P in 2016, the proponents believe that continuous update on progresses in response to therecommendations would be appreciated by the IWC SC. For this purpose, this paper presents the overall
progress of the work on recommendations implemented by the proponents to date. A synthesis of the additional
analyses will be presented when they are completed in line with the IWC SC-agreed timeframe.

INTRODUCTION
The final review of JARPNII was carried out in February 2016 through a workshop of an Expert Panel., The
report of the workshop was presented to the 2016 International Whaling Commission Scientific Committee(IWC SC) Annual Meeting (IWC, 2017a). The Expert Panel offered several recommendations for additional
analyses related with the main research objectives of JARPNII. The recommendations from the Expert Panel
were endorsed by the 2016 IWC SC annual meeting. At the same time the IWC SC agreed on a timeframe tocomplete the additional analyses recommended (IWC, 2017b).
The proponents recognize that the recommendations made are useful to refine some of the analyses presented to
the workshop. Some of the analyses conducted in response to these recommendations have already beenpresented to the IWC SC annual meetings (e.g. Pastene et al., 2016; Goto et al., 2016), and IWC SC
intersessional workshops (e.g. Taguchi et al., 2017). While the final review of the JARPNII program was duly
completed in accordance with Annex P, the proponents believe that continuous update on progresses in responseto the recommendations would be appreciated by the SC.
This paper presents the overall progress of the work on recommendations implemented by the proponents to date.
A synthesis of the additional analyses will be presented when the work is completed in line with the IWC SCagreed timeframe. The proponents considered that the 2019 IWC SC annual meeting could be the timing forthem to produce the synthesis document as the IWC SC’s timeframe for several recommendations was ‘2-3 years
after the 2016 Annual Meeting’ (IWC, 2017b). The proponents wish to maintain some degree of flexibility in thetiming to respond the recommendations within the period 2016-2019. Also, they will give low priority torecommendations considered not essential to address JARPNII research objectives.
PROGRESS REPORT
Several of the recommendations will be responded to by incorporating/analyzing data and information collectedin the period 2014-16. The proponents have already completed the data set relevant to JARPNII objectives,
corresponding to the period 2014-16, and presented this data and information to the NEWREP-NP Expert Panelworkshop (see Tamura et al., 2017).
Recommendations related to sampling design and sample size
1: (a) The predetermined track lines for sampling and the rationale for those lines;(b) The actual coverage of those tracklines and the rationale for any decisions……
(c) The issue of whether the actual sampling that occurred can be said to be representative ….
(d) The extent to which this may affect those objectives/parameters/analyses….
2: Papers using data from the inshore component must fully address the implications of the sampling design
3: (a) Provides a clearer rationale for the changes in sample sizes(b) Provides the field and analytical protocols for the comparison of using lethal and non-lethal techniques

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The proponents responded to the above recommendations in Tamura et al. (2016a), Bando et al. (2016) andYasunaga et al. (2017a). Several analyses are ongoing. With respect to the lethal and non-lethal techniques,
Yasunaga et al (2017b) will report at this meeting.
Recommendations related to stock structure
4: All inferences regarding ‘randomness’ of observations should be substantiated by a statistical assessment…
5: The presence of multiple stocks within sample partitions should be assessed (STRUCTURE and DAPC)…
6: More explicit information on quality checks be provided in each study (e.g. DNA sequencing error rates.)
7: Undertake work to determine the demographic dispersal rates among areas (Van der Zee and Punt, 2014) .
8: Analyses that do not assume mutation-drift-migration equilibrium
9: Using genome-wide SNP genotyping approaches
10: Focused satellite tagging programme should be developed
Most of the recommendations described above on stock structure from the JARPN II mid-term review (IWC,2010) and JARPNII final review (IWC, 2017a) workshops have been addressed: Tamura et al. (2017) forrecommendation 4; Pastene et al. (2016) and Taguchi et al. (2017) for recommendations 5; Goto et al. (2016) forrecommendation 6; Tiedemann et al. (2017) for recommendation 8. The novel SNPs for minke whale species
were developed under the collaborative research with Norway (Malde et al., under review), which will be used
for the subsequent genetic analyses in response to the recommendation 9. All these documents have been
submitted and discussed at the IWC SC. The recommendation 7 will be addressed after a discussion on directionof the analysis at the IWC SC.
The work on the last recommendation 10 is on-going. Data collection effort will be enhanced by the NEWREPNP of which, the data of Bryde’s and sei whales will be examined in conjunction with the available information
on mark-recapture from the period of commercial whaling.
Recommendations related to feeding ecology and ecosystem – oceanography
11: Chl-a concentration should be examined.
12: oceanographic monitoring is required.
For recommendation 11, already included in some analyses and discussed in Tamura et al. (2016a). With respect
to the recommendation 12, the proponents agreed – this is long-term monitoring. It will be addressed underAncillary Objective I of the research plan for NEWREP-NP.
Recommendations related to feeding ecology and ecosystem – distribution
13: Develop some papers: (a) include statistical summaries; (b) avoid extrapolation of the regression models
outside to data-poor areas or areas lacking coverage; (c) include variance plots,
14: Considerable effort be put into the methodological improvement of the spatial modelling….
15: Additional effort be placed on …the photo-identification data,
16: Explore methods to account for sampling differences between areas and years …,
17: Compare results from the design-based estimates of abundance with those of model-based estimates….
For recommendations 13 and 14, improvement of analyses of Matsuoka et al. (2016) (spatial abundance
estimation) and Tamura et al. (2016b) (spatial prey consumption estimation) is undergoing. Because they arecompanion papers, the improvement is conducted in parallel. Some of the results were presented to 2016 PICES
annual meeting (Sasaki et al, 2016) to invite comments from regional experts. The improved version will bepresented to the 2017 PICES annual meeting for further consideration. A fully improved version will be
submitted to IWC/SC after 2018.
Under recommendation 15, the proponents agreed that consideration will be given to sharing photo-ID data. The
database validations have been started for several species. With respect to recommendation 16, the proponents
agreed and expect to achieve this within the timeframe. This will explore the method using a model such as amixed effect model. The proponents agreed with recommendation 17 and expect to achieve this within thetimeframe and in line with the IWC guidelines discussed at the Scientific Committee in 2017.

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Recommendations related to feeding ecology and ecosystem - field and laboratory studies
18: The sampling distribution for the parameters should be used in the assessment….
19: Clarification should be provided on how density and diet consumption have been extrapolated …
20: All sources of uncertainty should be quantified and an evaluation…
21: The studies on allometric relationships should be developed….,
22: Consider the effect of seasonal changes in energy density of the various prey species
23: stable isotope of whale tissues and their prey should be introduced…..
The proponents have conducted additional work and analyses under Recommendations 18-22, following thetimeframe which was agreed by the IWC SC in 2016. Substantial progress was made on the treatment of
uncertainty associated with the estimation of prey consumption by whales (Recommendation 18), on theinvestigation of the effects of seasonal changes in energy density of the various prey species on the analyses ofdiet composition (Recommendation 22), and on Recommendation 23, on the stable isotope analysis of whale
tissues and their prey species. With respect to Recommendation 23, a study has begun with Hokkaido University.
Preliminary results were shown in Tamura et al. 2017. From this feasibility study, it was revealed that stable
isotope ratio of both whale skin and prey species shows seasonal and yearly variation and it is necessary toanalyze samples covering the whole feeding season and area. Although only skin was analyzed in this study,
other tissues such as muscle or liver would be useful to consider turnover time. Further analysis will be carriedout to evaluate the possibility of contribution by stable isotope analysis to feeding ecology study of whale
species in the western North Pacific. The final report will be presented at the 2018 IWC/SC meeting.
Recommendations related to feeding ecology and ecosystem - ecosystem modeling
25: Generic recommendations identified by the 2009 Panel remain.
26: Establish clear objectives on the ultimate use of the models to make further progress...
27: Use models in concert e.g. use food web modelling to establish key predation linkages …
28: Use stable isotopes to provide information on long term feeding patterns ….
29: With respect to the EwE modelling:(a) evaluate data quality for each input parameter;(b) further evaluate PREBAL and other diagnostics;(c) present more clearly and evaluate further the estimated vulnerabilities and other fit diagnostics….
30: With respect to extended single-species modelling:(a) ensure that the majority of predation mortality is captured;(b) carry out additional diagnostics(1) examine the fits to (a) fishery-independent survey data, (b) proportion information, (c) trends in fishingmortality(2) use posterior predictive checks to evaluate Bayesian model;(c) provide thorough justification for the current spatial boundaries of the model, the use of fishery CPUE..
(d) focus the model fitting on the fishery-independent survey if CPUE not considered likely to index abundance.
(e) examine sensitivity to alternative plausible functional forms of the feeding relationship.
(f) explore the causes of the implausible posteriors…
The proponents agree with recommendations 25-27. The proponents also agree with recommendation 28 inbroader term but note that use in modeling may be limited. With respect to the EwE modeling and the extended
single-species modeling, the proponents agree and will undertake analyses within the time frame but note some
limitations with EE in the western North Pacific situation and identify some difficulties with lack of data for item(e) of recommendation 30. Under recommendation 29, an improved version of the model was presented to"ICES/PICES: Drivers of dynamics of small pelagic fish resources" in March 2017 to invite comments fromexperts on small pelagic fish (Watari et al., 2017). Further improvement will be considered based on thecomments if any. A fully improved version will be submitted to the IWC/SC after 2018. Under recommendation
30, some work has been undertaken such as standardization of CPUE series and use of them in the model fitting.
In addition to Bayesian methods, estimation with ML method has been revisited. All but (e) will be finalized in
2018.
Recommendations related to environmental pollutants
31: To improve the statistical analyses based on clear and well-formulated hypotheses.
32: Recalculate OC concentrations as values on a lipid weight basis, Hg concentrations on a dry weight basis.
33: Explore trends in pollutant concentrations using generalized additive models / other non-linear approaches
34: Evaluate the pollutant concentrations found in comparison with data from previous studies….

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35: Incorporate age data into the multivariate analysis of pollutant concentrations…
36: To include stable isotope values in the analyses to investigate the bioaccumulation process of pollutants…
37: To assess more widely the risk that these chemical pollutants present to the populations’ abundance or
distribution.
Most of the recommendations on environmental pollutants from the JARPNII final review (IWC, 2017a)
workshops, described above, have been addressed: Hg (Yasunaga et al., 2016a) and PCB (Yasunaga et al,
2016b) for recommendations 31, 33 and 34. For recommendation 32, the proponents elucidated some difficulties
to address this recommendation due to loss of samples resulting from the 2011 tsunami.
For recommendations 35 and 36, the proponents agreed and expect to achieve this within the timeframe (2-3
years after the 2016 Annual Meeting). Recommendation 35 will continue to be addressed under Ancillary
Objective II (i) and (iii) of the research plan for NEWREP-NP.
The proponents give low priority to recommendation 37 considered not essential to further address JARPNII
research objectives, because “the results of the JARPNII studies demonstrated that PCBs and mercury were atvery low levels in these stocks, well below established no observable effect levels (NOELs)” as the Expert Panelpointed out (IWC, 2017c).
Recommendations related to ageing
38: To investigate into whether there is any relationship between age or sex and readability…
39: To age as many of the existing samples as possible and to incorporate age…updated analyses
The proponents agree and work is underway. Some progress on ageing was provided at the NEWREP-NP review
workshop and Implementation review workshop of western North Pacific Bryde’s whales (Bando and Kato,
2017; IWC, 2017c; 2017d,). Progress of analyses incorporating age data is also described at recommendation 35.
This will be addressed under Ancillary Objective II (i) and (iii) of the research plan for NEWREP-NP.

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