May 30, 2024

APIR Trend Watch No. 92
Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo
-Economic impact of the Greater EXPO and estimates based on
the latest data-

Yoshihisa Inada, Director of Research, Director Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, APIR
Ryosuke Nomura, Deputy Chief Researcher, APIRAPIR Kansai Interregional Input-Output Table Project Team 1

Summary
The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka -Kansai
Expo based on the most recent data on Expo-related project costs and other pertinent factors. It argues thatan expanded Expo (a ‘Greater Expo’) is of great importance. The background to the estimates presented inthis analysis include the accelerating inflation rate as well as increasing supply constraints due to theaftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Despite these challenging
circumstances, we maintain that hosting the Osaka-Kansai Expo is of great significance. The Expo represents
an invaluable opportunity for the Kansai economy, and by extension, the Japanese economy, to embark on apath of recovery. By seizing this opportunity, we can make a valuable investment in the future, ensuring a
successful turnaround. Below is a summary of the results and implications of this analysis:
1.

The final demand for the current period is estimated to be JPY 727.5 billion for Expo-related projects
and JPY 891.3 billion for consumption expenditures. The former is estimated to be JPY 138.1 billion(+23.4%) and the latter JPY 104.7 billion (+13.3%) higher than our previous forecast.
The economic ripple effects were calculated based on the final demand derived from the APIR ’s
Interregional Input-Output Table for Kansai. The induced production amount is JPY 2,745.7 billion in
the baseline scenario, which assumes that the Expo will take place only at the Yumeshima site. In the
Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production amount is JPY 3,238.4 billion, which assumes an increased
number of nights by visitors related to events outside the Yumeshima site. Finally, in the Greater Expo
Case 2, the induced production amount is JPY 3,366.7 billion. Case 2 assumes an increase in repeat
visitors. These amounts are respectively 15.6% (JPY 369.8 billion), 16.2% (JPY 450.9 billion), and16.8% (JPY 484.9 billion) higher than our previous forecast.
Our estimates are based on calculations of final demand generated under a specific industrial structure.
Since we assume that there are no distinct supply constraints, the results of this analysis should beconsidered rough estimates.
It is imperative to alleviate supply constraints in order to achieve the projected outcomes. To this end,
the utilization of DX (‘Digital Transformation’) will be pivotal. DX will enhance Japan's potential
growth rate. Additionally, in order to attract overseas visitors, it is crucial to refine the availability oftravel options in conjunction with the Expo.

2.

3.

4.

1

The members of the APIR independent research project "Utilization of the Kansai Interregional Input -Output Table" research team, led
by Kikuo Takabayashi (Professor, Osaka University of Economics and Law), and led by Hiroaki Irie (Professor, Department ofCommerce and Economics, Kinki University Junior College), Akira Shimoyama (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Osaka Universityof Economics) and Mitsuru Shimoda (Senior Researcher, Japan Applied Research Institute).

1

Introduction.
The purpose of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka -Kansai Expobased on the latest data and to argue for the importance of turning the Expo into an expanded event, which
we call a ‘Greater Expo’.
Since the first estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo was released by thegovernment in 2017 2, APIR has released three estimates using the Inter-regional Input-Output Table for theKansai Region3, reflecting changes in the economic environment since then. This report features the fourth
estiamte. The reason for publishing a fourth estimate is that Expo-related project costs (a basic assumption
in our analysis) have been greatly revised upward. This revision has raised the number of objections to holding
the Expo. In addition, the global and Japanese economies have faced major changes since 2017, including theimpact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Accelerating inflation and rising supply
constraints resulting from these events were key drivers behind the upward swing in Expo-related project
costs. 4
We believe that even under these circumstances, it is still important to hold the Osaka-Kansai Expo. In thepast, Expos have been a place to showcase industrial development and technological innovationinternationally, but recently they have become a place to propose solutions to issues common to the entire
humankind. 5 For that reason, we believe that the Expo is a unique opportunity to turn around the Kansai
economy and, by extension, the Japanese economy, and that there is great historical significance in this. 6
We would like to emphasize the importance of turning the Expo into an expanded event, , which we call a‘Greater Expo’. This is a new concept that was not seen at the 1970 Osaka Expo. The idea of the expansionof the expo refers to an effort to expand the concept of the Expo’s theme, time axis, and spatial axis, thereby
turning the entire Kansai region into a virtual pavilion, and to develop various economic activities, including
projects that are difficult to implement in the Expo itself.
The inter-regional input-output table for Kansai developed by APIR, which is the main tool for the analysis
presented in this report, had this far been a provisional version, as we had to make our own estimate of theunpublished Nara Prefecture input-output table. This analysis, however, is based on the final version of thetable, as we have replaced our provisional data with the new Nara Prefecture input-output table, which was
published in December 2023.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows: in Section 1, we present a re-estimation of final demand
generated by the Osaka-Kansai Expo based on the latest data; in Section 2, we present the estimated resultsof its economic ripple effects (the baseline scenario and the Greater Expo scenario); in Section 3, wesummarize our analysis and its implications.

1．

Re-estimating the final demand generated by the Expo

Final demand generated by Expo can be roughly divided into two categories: (1) Expo-related expenses
incurred by organizers and exhibitors (e.g., venue construction costs, operating costs, and related
infrastructure), and (2) consumption expenditures by visitors. Table 1 is a comparisoin of our previous
estimate 7 of final demand and our current estimate. The current estimate is features the incorporation ofmunicipal expenditures for Expo preparations into venue construction, operating costs, and related
infrastructure. The following sub-section provides an explanation of the changes in expenditures between theprevious year and the current year by major category.
1-1. Changes in Expo-related expenses
The costs of Expo-related projects are based on publicly available data from various sources. These include
the International Expo Association (2023a and 2023b), the Osaka-Kansai Expo Promotion Bureau (2023), the2

See Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2017) for details.
See Asia Pacific Institute of Research (2019), Asia Pacific Institute of Research (2022), and Yoshihisa Inada, Hiroaki Irieiri, Akira
Shimoyama, and Ryosuke Nomura (2023).
4
Comparing 2022 and 2020, the Energy price (National Consumer Price Index: 2020=100) and Construction Costs Deflator (2015=100)
are +21.7% and +10.2% higher, respectively.
5
The theme of the Milan Expo was "Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life," the theme of the Dubai Expo was "Connecting Minds,
Creating the Future," and the theme of the Osaka-Kansai Expo is "Designing Future Society for Our Lives”.
6
The Kansai economy needs increased investment to turn around, and the Expo can be used as an opportunity to do so. See Inada(2022) for details.
7
See Inada, Irie, Shimoyama, and Nomura (2023) for previous estimates.
32Secretariat of the International Expo Promotion Headquarters, Cabinet Office (2023), and Deloitte Touche
Tohmatsu LLC (2018) 8.
Construction cost of venue (organizer/exhibitor) 9
With regard to construction costs, the total amount for the organizers is JPY 235.0 billion, representing an
increase of JPY 50.3 billion from the previous total of JPY 184.7 billion 10 . The primary categories of
expenditure are JPY 157.9 billion for the construction of pavilions and service facilities, JPY 27.8 billion for
the installation of infrastructure (electricity, plumbing, etc.), and JPY 17.4 billion for the provision of parking.
The remaining costs are allocated to the following categories: lots and entrances, JPY 13.2 billion;
infrastructure (civil engineering, paving, landscape work, etc.), JPY 13.2 billion; venue production and others(survey design costs, administrative costs), JPY 5.7 billion. Among all categories, the increase of JPY 47.6
billion in the cost of pavilion and service facilities (up from JPY 110.3 billion in the previous report) is themost notable. This is due in part to the effects of inflation and rising supply constraints.
The total expenditure of exhibitors was JPY 102.4 billion, representing an increase of JPY 37.4 billion
from the previous total of JPY 65.0 billion. The main categories of expenditure are as follows: JPY 77.9
billion for pavilion and service facilities, JPY 16.7 billion for others (research and design, administrative
expenses), and JPY 7.7 billion for on-site production. The costs associated with pavilion facilities and service
facilities have increased by JPY 28.5 billion.
Operating expenses (organizer/exhibitor) 11
With regard to operating expenses, the total amount for the organizers is JPY 135.9 billion, representing an
increase of JPY 55.0 billion from the previous total of JPY 80.9 billion. Therein, the expenses for venue
management and administrative personnel are JPY 76.7 billion, while the costs for planning and project costadjustment are JPY 15.5 billion, the costs for planning and transportation are JPY 14.3 billion, and the costs
for advertising and promotion are JPY 9.5 billion. In addition, JPY 19.9 billion was allocated for expenses toensure safety at venues 12, which was not included in the previous report.
The total amount for exhibitors was JPY 208.0 billion, representing an increase of JPY 62.0 billion fromthe previous total of JPY 146.0 billion. The main breakdown is as follows: JPY 124.8 billion for venue
management and administrative personnel expenses, JPY 49.9 billion for advertising and promotion, and JPY
33.3 billion for planning and business coordination.
Related Infrastructure Development
The total amount of related infrastructure development decreased by JPY 82.2 billion – from JPY 112.8
billion to JPY 30.6 billion. The reason for this significant decrease is that the previous report included all
expenses related to infrastructure development, whereas this time, only the project expenses that are incurredin hosting the Expo are included in the total. The breakdown is as follows: JPY 4.7 billion for railway
improvements (central subway extension and transportation capacity expansion, etc.), JPY 19.9 billion forroad improvements (Konohana Bridge, Yumemai Bridge widening, etc.), JPY 2.1 billion for additional land
reclamation work, and JPY 3.8 billion for others.
Municipal expenses for hosting Expo
The recently approved expenditures are municipal expenses related to the hosting of the Expo. The total
amount is JPY 15.6 billion, with the majority allocated to projects to be carried out by Osaka Prefecture andthe City of Osaka 13. The primary breakdown is as follows: JPY 4 billion has been allocated for the “promotionof participation”, JPY 3.9 billion for “building momentum”, JPY 400 million for “increasing the8

Assumptions for final demand are assigned to the items in the previous estimation based on each reference material.
The detailed figures used to assume final demand for venue construction costs (organizers and exhibitors) were taken from thefollowing sources. Organizer: Japan Association for the International Exposition, 2025 (2023a), p. 7; Exhibitor: Deloitte Tou che
Tohmatsu LLC (2018), p. 11.
10
In addition to the overall construction cost, a contingency fund (JPY 13 billion) is included in the total construction cost of the venue(by the organizers).
11
The following documents were consulted for the figures used for caculating the final demand for operating expenses. Organizer:
Japan Association for the International Exposition, 2025 (2023b), "On the Draft Financial Plan (Operating Expenses)," Exhibit or:
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC (2018), p. 11.
12
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is bearing the cost of these expenses, which have been newly appropriated in
response to the shooting of former Prime Minister Abe and other incidents.
13
In this estimation, only the project costs for Osaka Prefecture and City were included because the exact costs for municipali ties otherthan Osaka Prefecture and City could not be ascertained.
93

attractiveness of the Expo”, and JPY 4.7 billion for “events designed to build momentum”. The budget
includes JPY 1.2 billion for on-site events during the Expo, JPY 2.4 billion for “building momentum andimproving hospitality by taking advbantage of regional characteristics”, and JPY 400 million for “investmentsin the future society”. The budget for the "Osaka Health Care Pavilion Project" is 2.0 billion JPY. It should
be noted that the cost of inviting children to the Expo is included in the operating expenses (on the organizers’side) and was recorded as a deduction item to avoid double-counting.
The aforementioned items bring the total expenses related to the Expo project to JPY 727.5 billion, an
increase of JPY 138.1 billion (23.4%) from the previous total of JPY 589.4 billion.
Table 1: Comparison of Expo-related project expenses
Unit: JPY 100 million
１-1．Venue construction expenses (organizer)

Previous

Current

assumption assumption

Difference

Infrastructure development (civil engineering construction, pavement, landscaping, etc.)

130

132

2

Infrastructure development (electricity, water supply and drainage, etc.)

285

278

-7

Parking lot, entrance
Pavilion facilities, service facilities

171

174

3

1,103

1,579

476

57

-101

Rendering at the venue

50

Other (research and design expenses, administrative expenses)

108

Total

1,847

2,350

１-2．Venue construction expenses (exhibitors)

503
Difference

Pavilion facilities, service facilities

495

779

285

Rendering at the venue

49

77

28

Other (research and design expenses, administrative expenses)

106

167

61

Total

650

1,024

374

Planning business, transportation business, etc.

129

143

14

Venue management, administrative personnel expenses, etc.

446

767

321

２-1．Operating expenses (organizer)

Expenses to ensure all possible safety precautions in the venue

Difference

-

199

199

Advertising, promotion, etc.

83

95

12

Planning, project coordination, etc.

151

155

4

Total

809

1,359

550

Venue management, administrative personnel expenses, etc.

876

1,248

372

Advertising, promotion, etc.

350

499

149

Planning, project coordination, etc.

234

333

99

1,460

2,080

620

610

47

-563

Road improvements, etc. (widening of Konohana Bridge and Yumemai Bridge, etc.)

250

199

-51

Additional construction costs for south area reclamation

89

21

-68

Other

179

38

-141

Total

1,128

306

２-2．Operating expenses (exhibitors)

Total

Difference

３．Related infrastructure development
Railroad development, etc.
(extension of the subway Chuo Line and expansion of the transportation capacity)

Difference

4．Municipal expenses for hosting Expo

-822
Difference

Participation Promotion

-

40

40

Fostering momentum, etc.

-

39

39

Expenses incurred in attracting

-

4

4

Events to foster momentum for the Expo, etc.

-

47

47

Events, etc. at the Expo

-

12

12

Foster momentum and improve hospitality by taking advantage of regional characteristics, etc.

-

24

24

Investing in the Future Society

-

4

4

Osaka Healthcare Pavilion Project Cost

-

20

20

Deductible item (free children's expenses)

-

-34

-34

Total

-

156

156

5,894

7,275

1,381

Total final demand for Expo related project expenses

Source: 2025 Japan International Expo Association (2023a and b); Osaka Expo Promotion Bureau (2023); Secretariat of the
Headquarters for Promoting International Expositions, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Commerceand Services Group (2023); and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC (2018).

4

Expo expenses borne by each entity
Figure 2 illustrates the cost-sharing structure of the Expo, delineating the contributions of various entities,
including Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City, the national government, the business community, and the Expo
Association. The venue construction cost, borne by the organizers, is estimated at JPY 235 billion, with thethree aforementioned entities each bearing one-third of the total cost. Furthermore, Osaka Prefecture andOsaka City will each contribute JPY 5 billion for the "Osaka Healthcare Pavilion". The national government
will bear JPY 36 billion for the Japan Pavilion 14.
From the organizers’ side, the operating expenses are to be paid by the Expo Association, which will bear
JPY 116 billion, and expenses are to be covered by ticket revenues and other revenues. Furthermore, JPY
19.9 JPY billion has been allocated by the national government to ensure safety in the venue. With regard to
the operating expenses borne by exhibitors, only the total (JPY 208.0 billion) is listed, as the detailed burden
rate of each entity could not be ascertained 15.
Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City will be responsible for bearing the costs of infrastructure development
related to the Expo, with the former providing JPY 7.2 billion and the latter JPY 23.3 billion. Furthermore,
the same entities will be responsible for bearing the costs of hosting the Expo, with the former providing 9.0
billion JPY and the latter 6.7 billion JPY.
Table 2: Expo-related project cost burden by entity (Unit: JPY 100 million)
Osaka pref. andOsaka city

Osaka pref. Osaka city

Japan

Business
community

１-1．Venue construction expenses (organizer)

783

392

392

783

783

１-2．Venue construction expenses (exhibitors)

99

50

50

360

565

２-1．Operating expenses (organizer)

199

２-2．Operating expenses (exhibitors)

278

３．Related infrastructure development

306

72

233

4．Municipal expenses for hosting Expo

156

90

67

1,344

603

741

Total

Expo 2025

Osaka, Kansai,

Total

Japan
2,350
1,024
1,160

1,359
2,080
305
157

1,620

1,348

1,160

7,275

Note: "Cost of invitations to children in Osaka (JPY 3.4 billion)" is deducted from the cost burden of the Osaka Prefectural
Government. Figures in the table are rounded off, so some figures may not equal the total.
Sources: 2025 Japan International Expo Association (2023a and b); Osaka Expo Promotion Bureau (2023); Secretariat of
the Headquarters for Promoting International Expositions, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
Commerce and Services Group (2023); and from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC (2018).

1-2. Changes in consumption expenditures by visitors
Re-estimating consumption per visitor
Our previous estimate utilized the 2019 average consumption per visitor (before the Covid-19 pandemic). In
contrast, the current estimate employs the average expenditure for the January-September period of 2023 16.
Furthermore, the average spending by Japanese and foreign tourists was divided by the average number ofnights (Japanese: 2.2 nights, foreign tourists: 11.1 nights) and converted to consumption per person per night(Figure 3). This figure is then multiplied by the expected number of individuals and nights to determine thetotal expected expenditure (Figure 4). The Japan Tourism Agency's "Survey of Travel and Tourism
Consumption Trends" and "Survey of Foreign Visitors to Japan" were utilized as the primary data sources .

14

Note that the expenses related to the Japan Pavilion (JPY 36 billion) include operating expenses, but since a detailed breakd own
could not be ascertained, the entire amount is allocated to the 1 -2. venue construction expenses (exhibitors).
15
According to the “Secretariat of the Headquarters for the Promotion of International Expositions, Cabinet Secretariat, Commer ce andService Group, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2023),” “Expenses for supporting developing countries to exhibit (JP Y 24
billion)” and “Expenses for building nationwide momentum (JPY 3.8 billion + future expenses)” were recorded, but as a detaile dbreakdown could not be obtained, these were allocated to “2-2.
16
The unit price revisions were made using data from 2023 onward, when the impact of the Corona pandemic has subsided and theeffects of government and municipal measures to stimulate travel demand have not been included.

5

Table 3: Expenditure per person by domestic and international visitors (Unit: JPY)
Previous Estimates

Current estimate
Domestic

Domestic
day visitor
Transportation expenses

overnight

day visitor

visitor

7,665

8,111

1,885

Transportation expenses

0

9,210

5,352

Lodging expenses

Food and drinks expenses

3,462

4,439

3,928

Shopping expenses

5,332

3,923

6,030

Entertainment services expenses

4,979

3,327

722

Total

21,43829,011

17,917

Lodging expenses

Domestic

Domestic

Overseasovernight

Overseas

visitor

7,782

8,823

2,130

0

11,5806,489

Food and drinks expenses

4,263

5,443

4,371

Shopping expenses

6,033

4,627

4,810

Entertainment services expenses

6,179

4,064

1,110

Total

24,25634,53818,911

Note: Spending per person per night for domestic and international visitors.
Source: Compiled from the Japan Tourism Agency's "Survey of Travel and Tourism Consumption Trends" and "Survey of
Foreign Visitor Consumption Trends in Japan.

Re-estimating total consumption expensditure by visitors
According to the Japan International Expo Association (2020), the total number of visitors to the OsakaKansai Expo is expected to be approximately 28.2 million (an average of 154,000 visitors per day). The
breakdown of the total number of visitors is as follows: approximately 15.6 million from the Greater Kansaiarea, approximately 9.1 million from domestic areas outside of Kansai, and approximately 3.5 million fromoverseas (19,000 visitors per day). As a reference, the total number of visitors the 2005 World Expo held in
Aichi Prefecture was 22,049,544 (with an average of 120,000 visitors per day), of which 1,049,000 were fromoverseas. The number of foreign visitors to Japan in 2005 was 6,728,000, while the number of visitors in
2023 was 3.7 times higher (25,066,000), suggesting that the expected number of overseas visitors is likely to
be correct.
For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that visitors from the greater Kansai area will visit the Expoon a day trip, while those from other parts of Japan will spend one night in Kansai. It is further assumed thatoverseas visitors will stay for three nights and four days.
The Greater Expo scenario posits that an increase in repeat visitors can be achieved by encouraging
additional participation in events held in various locations other than the Yumeshima site. We consider twocases: one in which the number of overnight visitors increases (hereinafter referred to as Greater Expo Case1), and another one in which the number of day-trippers increases in addition (hereinafter referred to as
Greater Expo Case 2).
In both Greater Expo Case 1 and Case 2, the number of nights spent by domestic overnight guests is
expected to increase from one to two nights, while the number of nights spent by international guests is
expected to increase from three to five nights. With regard to the two-night increase for overseas visitors, onenight is assumed to be spent in Osaka, while the other night is assumed to be spent in another area, in thesame proportion as the extra night spent by domestic visitors 17.
With regard to the increase in spending, we made the following assumptions. For domestic overnight
visitors, the accommodation expenses are assumed to increasy by 2 nights, and transportation, food, beverage,
and entertainment expenses are assumed increase by the equivalent of an additional 1.5 days. This results ina total of 5 nights of accommodation expenses, and transportation, food,beverage, and entertainment expenses
for 4.5 days.
In addition, Case 2 assumes a 20% increase in transportation, food, and beverage, and entertainment service
expenditures by day visitors. Based on the experience of the Aichi Expo, approximately 40% of visitors arereported to be repeat visitors 18. It was assumed that the efforts of the Kansai municipalities, namely thepavilionization of the Kansai prefectures, would result in an additional 20% increase in domestic day -trippers
visiting areas other than Osaka. Assumptions about the travel patterns of domestic day-trippers in the Kansai
region (excluding Osaka) during the January-September period of 2023 were based on the Japan Tourism
Agency's "Survey of Travel and Tourism Consumption Trends."
Table 4 shows our estimate of visitors’ consumption expenditures in each prefecture. Total consumer
spending is projected to be JPY 891.3 billion in the baseline scenario, representing an increase of JPY 104.7
billion (+13.3%) from our previous estimate. In Greater Expo Case 1, the total consumer spending isestimated to be JPY 1,165.4 billion, representing an increase of JPY 151 billion (+14.9%) from our previous

17

The destinations of domestic overnight visitors and international visitors for extended stays are calculated using the Japan Tourism
Agency's “Lodging Travel Statistics Survey” (January-September 2023), using the share of total overnight stays in one prefe cture andeight prefectures (excluding Osaka).
18
For details, see Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (2024).

6

estimate. Finally, in Greater Expo Case 2, the total consumer spending is projected to be JPY 1,241.1 billion,
representing an increase of JPY 176.5 billion (+16.6%) from our previous estimate.
Table 4: Consumption expenditures by visitors (Unit: JPY 100 million)
Conventional caseTransportation expenses

Conventional case
Domestic

Domesticday

overnight

visitorvisitorDomestic Domestic
Overseas

Total

day

1,196

738

198

2,132

Transportation expenses

0

838

562

1,400

Lodging expenses

Food and drinks expenses

540

404

412

1,356

Shopping expenses

832

357

633

Entertainment services expenses

777

303

3,344

2,640

Domestic

Domesticday

overnight

visitorvisitorLodging expenses

Total

803

224

2,240

0

1,054

681

1,735

Food and drinks expenses

665

495

459

1,619

1,822

Shopping expenses

941

421

505

1,867

76

1,155

Entertainment services expenses

964

370

117

1,450

1,881

7,866

Total

3,784

3,143

1,986

8,913

Greater EXPO case1
Domestic Domestic
Overseas

Total

day

1,107

297

2,600

Transportation expenses

0

1,676

937

2,613

Lodging expenses

Food and drinks expenses

540

606

619

1,765

Shopping expenses

832

357

633

Entertainment services expenses

777

454

3,344

4,201

Domestic

Domesticday

overnight

visitorvisitor

1,204

335

2,754

0

2,108

1,136

3,243

Food and drinks expenses

665

743

688

2,096

1,822

Shopping expenses

941

421

505

1,867

114

1,345

Entertainment services expenses

964

555

175

1,693

2,599

10,144

Total

3,784

5,031

2,839

11,654

Greater EXPO case1
Domestic Domestic
Overseas

Total

day

overnight Overseas

visitor

1,435

1,107

297

2,839

Transportation expenses

0

1,676

937

2,613

Lodging expenses

Food and drinks expenses

648

606

619

1,873

Food and drinks expenses

Shopping expenses

832

357

633

1,822

Entertainment services expenses

932

454

114

3,847

4,201

2,599

Lodging expenses

Total

Total

visitor

1,214

Greater EXPO case2

Transportation expenses

overnight Overseas

visitor

1,196

Lodging expenses

Total

Total

visitor

1,214

Greater EXPO case1

Transportation expenses

overnight Overseas

visitor

Total

visitor

1,457

1,204

335

2,997

0

2,108

1,136

3,243

798

743

688

2,229

Shopping expenses

1,129

421

505

2,056

1,500

Entertainment services expenses

1,157

555

175

1,886

10,646

Total

4,541

5,031

2,839

12,411

Source: Prepared by the authors

7

2．

Re-estimation of economic ripple effects

We re-calculated the economic ripple effects of the Expo using APIR’s Interregional Input-Output Table 19
for Kansai in conjunction with our re-estimation of final demand presented above. The three kinds of
economic ripple effects 20 (induced production, induced gross value added, and induced employment income)are shown in Figure 1. For the economic ripple effects (induced production) by prefecture, refer to Appendix
table 1 below.
The induced production is estimated to be JPY 2,745.7 billion in the baseline scenario, JPY 3,238.4 billion
in Greater Expo Case 1, and JPY 3,366.7 billion in Greater Expo Case 2. The gross value added inducement
is estimated to be JPY 1,584.7 billion in the baseline scenario, JPY 1,850.0 billion in Case 1, and JPY 1,926.5
billion in Case 2. The induced employment income would be JPY 835.7 billion in the baseline scenario, JPY
967.2 billion in Case 1, and JPY 1,042.2 billion in Case 2.
Figure 1: Economic impacts in the baseline scenario and Greater Expo scenario (Cases 1 and 2)
Unit：JPY 100 million

05,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

27,457
Production

32,38433,667

15,847
Value added

18,50019,265

8,357
Compensation of employee

9,672
10,042

Conventional EXPO

Greater EXPO case 1

Greater EXPO case 2

Source: Prepared by the authors

2-1. The inducmenet effect of Expo-related project expenses vs. consumption expenditures: baseline
scenario
Above (Figure 1), we presented the total inducement (spillover/ripple) effect by Expo-related project
expenditures and consumption expenditures. In Figure 2, we divide that total inducement effect into the shareof total effect generated by project expenditures vs. the share of total effect generated by consumption
expenditures.
Expo-related projects will result in the generation of JPY 1,410.2 billion in production, JPY 805.5 billion
in induced gross value added, and JPY 463.2 billion in induced employment income. On the other hand,consumption expenditures will induce JPY 1,335.5 billion in production, JPY 779.2 billion of gross value
added, and JPY 372.6 billion of employment income.

19

The economies of the Kansai and non-Kansai regions are affected by the transfers in and out. Therefore, the value of transactions
other than exports and imports in the “Other Regions” outside of Kansai is calculated by subtracting the value for Greater Ka nsai
from the value in the national table.
20
In estimating economic ripple effects using the input-output table, the primary ripple effect, which is calculated by multiplying
changes in final demand by the inverse matrix, and the effect from increased consumption (secondary ripple effect) generated fromthe increased income generated from the increased demand are considered. See Appendix Figure 1 below for the calculation flow of
economic ripple effects.

8Figure 2: Economic ripple effects by Expo-related project expenditures vs consumption expenditures:baseline scenario

Production

14,102

Value added

8,055

Compensation of

4,632

employee

Unit: JPY 100 million

13,355

0

7,792

3,726

5,000

27,457

15,847

8,357

10,000Expo-related business expenses

15,00020,00025,00030,000visitor consumption expenditures

Source: Prepared by the authors

2-2. The economic ripple effects of a ‘Greater Expo’
Figures 3.1 and 3.2 illustrate the economic ripple effects of the Greater Expo case in comparison to thebaseline scenario presented in Figure 2.
Figure 3.1 Economic ripple effects of Expo-related project expenditures vs. consumption expenditures:Greater Expo Case 1

Production

14,102

Value added

8,055

Compensation of

4,632

employee010,445

5,040

5,000

32,384

18,282

18,500

9,672

10,00015,000Expo-related business expenses

20,00025,00030,00035,000
Unit: JPY 100 million

visitor consumption expenditures

Source: Prepared by the authors

9Figure 3.2 Economic ripple effects of Expo-related project expenditures vs. consumption expenditures:Greater Expo Case 2

Production

14,102

Value added

8,055

Compensation of

4,632

employee

33,667

19,565

19,265

11,2105,410

10,042

Unit: JPY 100 million
0

5,000

10,00015,00020,000Expo-related business expenses

25,00030,00035,00040,000visitor consumption expenditures

Source: Prepared by the authors

As the economic ripple effects of the Greater Expo case are manifested only in consumption expenditures.
In Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production, induced gross value added, and induced employment income
for consumption expenditures are JPY 1,828.2 billion, JPY 1,044.5 billion, and JPY 504.0 billion,
respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, the figures are respectively, JPY 492.7 billion, JPY
265.3 billion, and JPY 131.5 billion higher. In Greater Expo Case 2, the production induced by consumption
expenditures is estimated to be JPY 1,956.5 billion, the gross value added JPY 1,121.0 billion, and theemployment income JPY 541.0 billion. Relative to the baseline scenario, the figures are respectively, JPY
621.0 billion, JPY 341.8 billion, and JPY 168.4 billion higher (Table 5).
Table 5: Comparison of economic ripple effects
Unit: JPY 100 million

Conventional
Expo(a)Difference from conventional case

Greater

Greater

Expo

Expo

Greater Expocase2(C)

case1

case2

(b)-(a)(c)-(a)case1(b)Greater Expo

Production

27,45732,38433,667

4,927

6,210

Value added

15,84718,50019,265

2,653

3,418

Compensation of employee

8,357

9,672

10,042

1,315

1,684

Source: Prepared by the authors

2-3. Economic ripple effects by prefecture
Figure 4.1 illustrates the economic ripple effects (induced production) by prefecture in the baseline scenario.
In the baseline scenario, Osaka Prefecture is the beneficiary of a much larger ripple effect than the otherprefectures, with an estimated value of JPY 2,062.1 billion. Osaka is followed by the category “other regions”
with an estimated value of JPY 484.6 billion, and Hyogo Prefecture with an estimated value of JPY 72.2
billion. The economic ripple effects generated in “other regions” imply that a certain amount of economic
activity generated in other regions to meet the new demand generated mainly in Osaka Prefecture (direct
demand). The economic ripple effects of Expo-related business expenditures and consumption expendituresby prefecture are shown in Appendix tables 2.1 and 2.2 below.

10Figure 4.1 Economic ripple effects by prefecture: baseline scenario(JPY 100 million)

25,00020,621
20,00015,00010,000
4,846

5,000
722

Other region

Tokushima pre.

Tottori pref.

Wakayama pref.

Nara pref.

Hyogo pref.

Osaka pref.

Kyoto pref.

Shiga pref.

Mie pref.

Fukui pref.

0

Source: Prepared by the author

Next, we examine the extent to which induced production in Greater Expo Cases 1 and 2 diverges from thebaseline scenario by prefecture (Figure 4.2). Kyoto Prefecture (Greater Expo Case 1: 172.1 billion JPY,
Greater Expo Case 2: 188.2 billion JPY) exhibits the most pronounced increase in both cases, followed by“other regions” (JPY 88.2 billion in Case 1, JPY 104.4 billion in Case 2), and Hyogo Prefecture (JPY 79.3
billion in Case 1, JPY 99.7 billion in Case 2).
As illustrated in Appendix Table 1, the distribution of economic ripple effects by region reveals that theshare of Osaka Prefecture declines from 75.1% in the baseline scenario to 62.6% in Greater Expo Case 2,
while the shares of other prefectures increase. In terms of consumption expenditures, Osaka's share declines
from 75.5% in the baseline scenario to 53.8% in the Greater Expo Case 2, while the shares of other prefectures
increase further. The results of this estimation indicate that the economic ripple effect can be significantly
enhanced if appealing content for tourists in various locations throughout the Kansai region is developed.
Figure 4-2 Economic ripple effects of a Greater Expo by prefecture: deviation from baseline scenario(JPY 100 million)
2,000

1,882
1,721

1,800

Greater EXPO case1 - Conventional case

1,600Greater EXPO case2 - Conventional case

1,400
1,200

1,044

997

1,000

822

793

800

600
400
200

Other

regionpre.

Tokushima

Tottori pref.

pref.

Wakayama

Nara pref.

Hyogo pref.

Osaka pref.

Kyoto pref.

Shiga pref.

Mie pref.

Fukui pref.

0

Note: See the Appendix Table below for the economic ripple effects of Expo-related business expenses and visitor
consumption expenditures.
Source: Prepared by the authors

11

3．

Summary and Implications

Summary and Comparison of Economic Ripple Effects
Figure 6.1 compares our latest final demand estimates with the previous ones. In our previous estimates,
Expo-related project expenditures were assumed to be JPY 589.4 billion. However, in the current report,
reflecting the latest data, Expo-related project expenditures are assumed to be JPY 727.5 billion. According
to our previous estimate, consumption expenditure was JPY 786.6 billion. However, the figure has increased
to JPY 891.3 billion in our current estimate. Expo-related project expenditures have increased by JPY 138.1
billion, representing a 23.4% increase, while consumption expenditures have increased by JPY 104.7 billion,
representing a 13.3% increase.
Figure 6.2 compares the economic ripple effects of the previous and current estimates. Previously, in thebaseline scenario, the total economic ripple effect was JPY 2,375.9 billion, but the latest figure is JPY 2,745.7
billion, an increase of JPY 369.8 billion (+15.6%). In the Greater Expo scenario, the increase from theprevious estimate is JPY 450.9 billion (+16.2%) in Case 1 and JPY 484.9 billion (+16.8%) in Case 2.
It should be noted that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2017) estimates that 30 million people
will visit the Expo, and that the Expo-related final demand will be JPY 1.1 trillion: JPY 0.2 trillion fromconstruction expenses, JPY 0.2 trillion from operating expenses, and JPY 0.7 trillion consumption
expenditures. The economic ripple effects on the entire country by each of these categories are estimated at
JPY 0.4 trillion, JPY 0.4 trillion, and JPY 1.1 trillion, respectively, or a grand total of JPY 1.9 trillion.
Figure 6.1 Comparison of Final Demand
Unit: 100 miliion, %Expo-related

visitor consumption expenditures

business

Conventional

expenses

EXPO

Greater

Greater

EXPO

EXPO

case 1case 2Previous estimate

5,894

7,866

10,144

10,646

Current estimate

7,275

8,913

11,654

12,411

1,381

1,047

1,510

1,765

23.4

13.3

14.9

16.6

Difference between
current estimate andprevious estimate
Difference (%)

Figure 6.2 Comparison of economic ripple effects
Unit：JPY 100 million, ％Current estimate

Conventional Greater Expo Greater Expo
Expo

case1

case2

Production

27,45732,38433,667

Value added

15,84718,50019,265Compensation of employee

8,357

9,672

10,042Previous Estimates

Conventional Greater Expo Greater Expo
Expo

case1

case2

Production

23,75927,87528,818

Value added

13,59915,82016,382Compensation of employee

7,206

8,312

8,588

Difference between current estimate
and previous estimate

Conventional Greater Expo Greater Expo
Expo

case1

case2

Production

3,698

4,509

4,849

Value added

2,248

2,680

2,883

Compensation of employee

1,151

1,361

1,454

Difference between current estimate
and previous estimate (%)

Conventional Greater Expo Greater Expo
Expo

case1

case2

Production

15.6

16.2

16.8

Value added

16.5

16.9

17.6

Compensation of employee

16.0

16.4

16.9

Source: Prepared by the authors

12

A note on our estimates
This report presented our estimates of final demand generated by the Expo, as well as its economic ripple
effects based on the APIR’s Regional Input-Output Table 21 for Kansai. The obtained estimates are based on
calculations of how much demand will be generated in various industries under the current industrial structure,both directly and indirectly. It should be noted, however, that the economic ripple effects obtained from the
input-output analysis are based on the assumption that there are no supply constraints. However, in 2024, thepossibility of problems that could create bottlenecks for the construction of the Expo site is still being
discussed. Consequently, our estimates should be taken as approximate.
In order for our estimates to turn into reality, it is essential to alleviate supply constraints. To this end, theuse of DX (e.g., "MaaS" in the construction and transportation industries) will be crucial, and this will
enhance Japan's potential growth rate. In this estimation, the economic ripple effects are calculated separately
for Expo-related demand (construction costs, operating costs, and municipal expenses for hosting the Expo)and consumption expenditures. With regard to the former, it is of the utmost importance to alleviate supply
constraints. With regard to the latter, it is of the utmost importance to refine the travel content tied to theExpo in order to attract overseas travelers to the Expo.

21

In the case of an inter-regional input-output table for each prefecture alone, industries with low self-sufficiency rates have large
leakages, suppressing direct effects, but the “inter-regional input-output table” is characterized by the fact that all (domestic) demandis captured as demand in one of the regions, allowing a more accurate grasp of spillover effects.

13

References
Asia Pacific Institute of Research (2019). Asia Pacific and the Kansai: The Asia Pacific Economic Outlook
2019. Maruzen Planet Corporation.
Asia Pacific Institute of Research (2022). Asia Pacific and the Kansai: The Asia Pacific Economic Outlook
2022. Nikkei Printing Corporation.
Cabinet Secretariat (2023). Osaka Kansai banpaku ni kanren suru kuni no hiyo ni tuite [Expenses of Country
for the Osaka-Kansai Expo]. https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/expo_suisin_honbu/pdf/yosan_2023
1219.pdf
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC (2018), Heisei 29 nendo naigai ittai no keizai seicho senryaku kochiku ni
kakaru kokusai keizai chosa jigyo- Kokusai hakurankai no kaisai wo keiki to sita jizokukano na
shisutemu no kochiku ni muketa kadaiseirinado no chosa [FY 2017 International Economic Research
Project for the Construction of an Integrated Domestic and Foreign Economic Growth Strategy Research on the Identification of Issues for the Construction of a Sustainable System on the Occasionof an International Exposition]
Expo 2025 Osaka Prefectural and Osaka City office (2023). Osaka Kansai banpaku ni yosuru fushi no hiyo[Prefectural and Municipal Expenses for the Osaka-Kansai Expo]. https://www.city.osaka.lg.jp/
hodoshiryo/cmsfiles/contents/0000615/615575/1222husihiyou.pdf
Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan (2020). Designing future society for our lives. https://www.expo2025.or.jp/wp/wp-content/themes/expo2025orjp_2022/assets/pdf/masterplan/expo2025_masterplan.pdf
Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan (2023a). Kaijo kensetuhi seisakekka hokokunaiyo [Venue Construction
Costs: Detailed Content Report of Scrutiny Results]. https://www.expo2025.or.jp/wp/wpcontent/uploads/20231107_kaijyoukennsetuhi_seisa.pdf
Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan (2023b), Rinjirijikai kaigishiryo [Extraordinary Meeting of the Board of
Directors]. https://www.expo2025.or.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/20231214_documents_low.pdf
Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute. (2024). Ai Chikyuhaku heimakugo deta shu [Datacollection after the end of Expo 2005 Aichi, Japan]. http://www.expo2005.or.jp/jp/jpn/about/post/po
st_b/post_b2.html
Inada, Y. (2022). Kansai keizai no hanten ni mukete: Osaka Kansaibanpaku, IR wo teko ni [Toward a Reversalof the Kansai Economy- Osaka-Kansai Expo and IR as a Leverage]. APIR Trend Watch, 81.
https://www.apir.or.jp/research/11106/
Inada, Y., Irie, H., Shimoyama, A., and Nomura, R. (2023). Kakucho banpaku no keizai hakyu koka
[Economic

RippleEffectsofGreater

EXPO:

UPDATE].

APIR

Trend

Watch,

85.

https://www.apir.or.jp/research/11967/
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2017). 2025 nen kokusai hakurankai kentokai hokokusho [Reportof the Study Group for the 2025 International Exposition]. https://www.meti.go.jp/report/whitepape
r/data/pdf/20170407001_1.pdf
14

Appendix Table 1 Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo by prefecture: Total
effects
Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

Greater

Greater

Expo1-

Expo2-

Conventional

Conventional

Greater
Expo1-Expo2

Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

share

share

share

Fukui pref.

78

278

359

199

280

81

0.3

0.9

1.1

Mie pref.

359

719

865

360

506

146

1.3

2.2

2.6

Shiga pref.

201

452

535

251

334

83

0.7

1.4

1.6

Kyoto pref.

242

1,963

2,124

1,721

1,882

161

0.9

6.1

6.3

Osaka pref.

20,621

20,87421,069

254

448

194

75.1

64.5

62.6

Hyogo pref.

722

1,515

1,719

793

997

204

2.6

4.7

5.1

Nara pref.

76

165

246

88

170

81

0.3

0.5

0.7

Wakayama pref.

192

385

436

193

244

51

0.7

1.2

1.3

Tottori pref.

32

156

193

125

161

37

0.1

0.5

0.6

Tokushima pre.

89

210

232

121

142

22

0.3

0.6

0.7

4,846

5,668

5,889

822

1,044

221

17.6

17.5

17.5

27,45732,38433,667

4,927

6,210

1,283

100.0

100.0

100.0

Other region

Total

Appendix Table 2.1: Division of Economic Ripple Effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo byPrefecture: Expo-Related Businesses
Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

Greater

Greater

Expo1-

Expo2-

Conventional

Conventional

Greater
Expo1-Expo2

Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

share

share

share

Fukui pref.

36

36

36

0

0

0

0.3

0.3

0.3

Mie pref.

186

186

186

0

0

0

1.3

1.3

1.3

Shiga pref.

124

124

124

0

0

0

0.9

0.9

0.9

Kyoto pref.

101

101

101

0

0

0

0.7

0.7

0.7

Osaka pref.

10,535

10,535

10,535

0

0

0

74.7

74.7

74.7

Hyogo pref.

392

392

392

0

0

0

2.8

2.8

2.8

Nara pref.

48

48

48

0

0

0

0.3

0.3

0.3

Wakayama pref.

104

104

104

0

0

0

0.7

0.7

0.7

Tottori pref.

14

14

14

0

0

0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Tokushima pre.

34

34

34

0

0

0

0.2

0.2

0.2

2,528

2,528

2,528

0

0

0

17.9

17.9

17.9

14,102

14,102

14,102

0

0

0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Other region

Total

Appendix Table 2.2 Division of Economic Ripple Effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo byPrefecture: Consumption Expenditure
Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

Greater

Greater

Expo1-

Expo2-

Conventional

Conventional

Greater
Expo1-Expo2

Conventional

Greater Expo

Greater Expo

Expo

case1

case2

share

share

share

Fukui pref.

43

242

323

199

280

81

0.3

1.3

1.7

Mie pref.

173

533

679

360

506

146

1.3

2.9

3.5

Shiga pref.

77

328

411

251

334

83

0.6

1.8

2.1

Kyoto pref.

141

1,862

2,023

1,721

1,882

161

1.1

10.2

10.3

Osaka pref.

10,086

10,34010,534

254

448

194

75.5

56.6

53.8

Hyogo pref.

330

1,123

1,327

793

997

204

2.5

6.1

6.8

Nara pref.

28

116

197

88

170

81

0.2

0.6

1.0

Wakayama pref.

88

281

332

193

244

51

0.7

1.5

1.7

Tottori pref.

18

142

179

125

161

37

0.1

0.8

0.9

Tokushima pre.

55

176

198

121

142

22

0.4

1.0

1.0

2,318

3,140

3,361

822

1,044

221

17.4

17.2

17.2

13,35518,282

19,565

4,927

6,210

1,283

100.0

100.0

100.0

Other region

Total

Source: Prepared by the author

15

Appendix Figure 1: Calculation flow of economic ripple effects
Final demand(1) Expo-related business expenses、

Deduction for transfer imports(2) visitor consumption expenditures

Demandoutside Osaka
Prefecture

Setting Vectors
Increase in household consumption
Industrial
structure
consumption diversion rate

Wage and income growth

Leontief Inverse matrix（ I – (I – M)A )-1

The primary indirect effectEconomic ripple effects are calculated as direct
effects + indirect secondary production ripple effects

Increased
production tomeet demand

Demand vector after
deduction of transfers
and imports

The direct effect

The secondary indirect effectSource: Prepared by the author＜Yoshihisa Inada, Director, APIR Research Supervisor/Quantitative Economic Analysis Center, Ryosuke
Nomura, APIR Deputy Senior Researcher, and the APIR Kansai Interregional Input-Output Table Project
Team, contact@apir.or.jp>
This report is based on the views of the authors and does not represent the views of the Institute.
This report is based on various data that are believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness . The
information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

16