Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

Column B

79

New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

1. Demographics by Major Region(1) World Population
According to WPP2022, the world population will reach 8 billion in
November 2022, and India is projected to overtake China as the most populous country in the world in 20232). It is of great interest to see in whichareas population growth has occurred so far and in which areas population decline will happen in the future. Before we conduct analysis byregion, let us review the extent to which the world population projection
1) WPP2022 is a global population estimate based on 1,758 censuses and dynamics
registration systems and 2,890 global sample surveys conducted between 1950 and
2022.
2) India conducts a national census every 10 years, but the survey scheduled for 2021
was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the next census is scheduled for2023. Therefore, it is still estimated that India’s population will exceed that of China.

Part Ⅱ
Part ⅢPart ⅣIn July 2022, the United Nations released the World Population Prospects
2022 (“WPP2022”)1). Comparing WPP2022 with the previous estimates (“WPP2019”), the world population will reach 8 billion earlier inthe former than in the latter. The next milestone of 9 billion people isexpected to be reached in 2037, 15 years to increase from 8 to 9 billion in
WPP 2022 (medium estimate). Taking into consideration that it took 12
years for the world population to increase from 7 to 8 billion, this is due toa decline in the world’s fertility rate. By region, there are signs of change
in Asia, where previously the population increased significantly, the population of China has entered a phase of decline, while India’s populationis steadily increasing.
Column B presents the world demographic characteristics based on
WPP 2022. Column B.1 identifies the demographic characteristics of theworld’s major regions, and Column B.2 identifies the demographic characteristics of the major countries. Column B.1 identifies demographic
trends by major world region. Column B.2 identifies the demographic
characteristics of major countries, and Column B.3 presents the implications of the analysis.

Part ⅠYOSHIDA, Shigekazu; NOMURA, Ryosuke

80

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024

has changed from the previous report (Figure 1-CB-1). WPP 2019 projects a slight increase of the world population until 2100. However, thisreport estimates that the world population would peak at 10.43 billion
in 2086 and begin declining subsequently. Population estimates for 2100
are 10.88 billion in WPP2019 and 10.35 billion in WPP2022, making a difference of 530 million people. This is due to the change in the estimatedoutlook for the world’s fertility and mortality rates.
Figure 1-CB-2 shows the transition of crude birth rate and death(million people)
12,00010,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
WPP2019

WPP202201950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-1

Comparison of World Population Projections

Note: WPP2019 is actual data until 2020 and medium estimate afterwards
WPP2022 is actual data until 2021 and medium estimate afterwards
Source: WPP2019 and WPP2022(per 1,000 population)
50.0
45.0

Crude Birth Rate(WPP2022)
Crude Birth Rate(WPP2019)

Crude Death Rate(WPP2022)
Crude Death Rate(WPP2019)

40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
2086

15.0
10.0
5.0

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-2

World Crude Birth and Death Rates (estimated)

Note: Actual data until 2020, medium estimates after 2025
Source: WPP2019 and WPP2022

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

81

（%）
100

Part Ⅱ(2) Comparison of Population by Major Region
Next, let us look at the world population by region (Figure 1-CB-3). In
1950, 55.2% of the world population was from Asia, 22.0% from Europe,
9.1% from Africa, 6.7% from Latin America, 6.5% from North America, and
0.5% from Oceania, in descending order. In particular, Asia has consistently accounted for a large share, reaching a peak of 60.8% in 2003. Since
then, however, its share has shown a declining trend, falling to 59.4% in
2021, and is projected to decrease to 54.5% in 2050, and 45.2% in 2100.

Part Ⅰ

rate per thousand world population3). In the WPP2019 projection, thecrude birth rate did not fall below the crude death rate until 2100.
However, in the WPP2022 projection, the crude death rate was modified and projected to exceed the crude birth rate in 2086. The downward
modification of the crude birth rate and upward modification of the crude
death rate are probably due to the global expansion of COVID-19 in 2020.

90

Part Ⅲ

80
70
60
50

Part Ⅳ

40
30
20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Asia

Figure 1-CB-3

EuropeAfricaLatin America and The Caribbean

North America

Oceania

Population Estimates by Region (Share)

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

3) Crude birth rate and crude death rate are calculated by dividing the number ofbirths and deaths in a given year by the population in that year. In WPP, they arecalculated as the number of births and deaths per 1,000 population in that year. For
WPP2019, values are given every five years, and for WPP2022, values are given foreach year.

82

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024

The share of the Asian region will decline while that of the African
region will increase. The share of the African region in 2021 was 17.6%,
but it is expected to increase significantly to 25.6% by 2050 and to 37.9%
by 2100.
Thus, the center of population growth is shifting from Asia to Africa.
In the following subsections, we will review population dynamics in major
regions (Asia, Europe, North America, and Africa).
[Asia]
Figure 1-CB-4 shows the population by age group and crude birth anddeath rates in the Asian region. The total population is 4,694.58 million
in 2021, and will reach a peak of 5,305.28 million in 2055. However, the(million people)
7,000
2021: 4,695 million people

6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0-14

14-64

65+

(per 1,000 population)
50.0
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0

2057

15.0
10.0
5.0

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-4Population in Asia (upper graph) and crude birth anddeath rates (lower graph)

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

[Europe]
Figure 1-CB-5 shows the population by age group and crude birth anddeath rates in the European region. The total population is expected topeak at 746.23 million in 2020, followed by a gradual decline. The total
population in 2021 was 745.17 million, and it is expected to decrease to586.52 million by 2100.
The working-age population has been steadily increasing since1950, but is expected to decline after peaking at 501.96 million in 2010.
The juvenile population peaked at 167.76 million in 1965 and has been
declining since then. On the other hand, the elderly population has been
increasing since 1950, and is expected to start declining after 2057.
The crude birth rate, which had been at about 20 per 1,000 population in the 1950s, showed a gradual downward trend after 1960, falling
below the crude death rate in 1993 and temporarily exceeding the crude
death rate in the early 2010s before declining again thereafter. The
crude death rate, on the other hand, has shown an upward trend sincePart Ⅰ
Part Ⅱ
Part Ⅲ

population is expected to show a downward trend thereafter, reaching
4,674.25 million by 2100.
The working-age population (15-64 years old) is expected to increasesteadily from the 1980s to the 2030s, but is projected to decline gradually
after the 2040s. The population aged 0-14 (hereinafter referred to as the“juvenile population”) has been gradually increasing since 1950, but after
a slight increase in the 1990s, it began to decline in the 2000s, and is
expected to increase slightly or remain almost flat in the 2010s before
declining again after 2020. On the other hand, the population aged 65 andover (hereinafter referred to as “the elderly population”) has been gradually increasing since the 2010s, and is expected to increase significantly
from the 2030s onward. This is due to the declining birthrate and aging
population in China, which will be discussed later.
The crude birth rate was 40 per 1,000 population between the 1950s
and 1960s, but has shown a gradual downward trend since 1970. The
crude death rate, excluding the effects of the Chinese famine and the
spread of COVID-19 infection, has been declining from 1950 to 2020, but
is expected to increase gradually after 2030, exceeding the crude birthrate by 2057.

83

Part Ⅳ

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

84

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024(million people)
900
2021: 745 million people

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0-14

14-64

65+

(per 1,000 population)
50.0
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0

1993

10.0
5.0
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-5

Population in Europe (upper graph) and crude birth anddeath rates (lower graph)

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

the 1970s and has increased significantly from 2020 to 2022 due to the
COVID-19 pandemic, and is expected to remain above the crude birthrate from 2023 onward.
[North America]
Figure 1-CB-6 shows trends in population by age group and crude birthand death rates in the North American region.
The total population has been on an upward trend since 1950, reaching 375.28 million in 2021, and is expected to increase gradually after
2022, reaching 448.03 million by 2100.
The working-age population has been increasing since 1950, as has

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

85(million people)
500
2021: 375 million people

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
14-64

65+

Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate

45.0

Part Ⅰ

0-14(per 1,000 population)
50.0

40.0

30.0
25.0
20.0
2042

15.0

Part Ⅱ

35.0

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-6

Population in North America (upper graph) and crude
birth and death rates (lower graph)

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

the total population, and is expected to peak at 256.07 million in 2053
before declining at a slower pace than in other regions. The juvenile population is expected to peak at 68.79 million in 2018 and then decline at a
slower pace. On the other hand, the elderly population has been increasing since 1950 and is expected to exceed the juvenile population by 2023.
The elderly population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050, and theaging of the population is expected to continue.
The crude birth rate remained at around 20-24 per 1,000 populationfrom the 1950s to the early 1960s, and showed a downward trend fromthe late 1960s to the 1970s, followed by a slight upward trend in the 1980s
and 1990s. Since 1991, however, it has been on a gradual downward trend,Part Ⅳ

5.0

Part Ⅲ

10.0

86

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024

and is expected to remain at an average of about 9 per 1,000 population
after 2048. On the other hand, the crude death rate declined somewhat
from 1950 to the 2000s, but has been gradually increasing since 2010.
Although the crude death rate is expected to exceed the crude birth rate
in 2042, the degree of increase will be lower than in other regions.
[Africa]Figure 1-CB-7 shows population trends and crude birth and death rates
in the African region. As shown in the figure, the total population of theAfrican region has been rising steadily since 1950, reaching 1,393.68 million in 2021, and will be 3,924.42 million in 2100, which is characterized
by the fact that the population is not expected to decline as in the North(million people)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500

2021: 1,394 million people

2,000
1,500
1,000
500

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0-14

14-64

65+

(per 1,000 population)
50.0
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-7

Population in Africa (upper graph) and crude birth anddeath rates (lower graph)

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

(1) Population Trends in Major Asian Countries
As described in Column B.1, the world’s population is expected to decline
in the future, especially in the Asian region. In this subsection, we will
focus on major countries in the Asian region and review the demographic
trends of each country. We will also examine the demographics of Russia,
which has close ties to the Asian region, including China and India, as
well as to Europe.
[Japan]Figure 1-CB-8 shows trends in population by age group, crude birthrate, and crude death rate in Japan.
The total population peaked at 128.12 million in 2009 and has been
declining, reaching 124.61 million in 2021.
The working-age population peaked at 87.12 million in 1994 (69.6% of
the total population) and has continued to decline, reaching 72.82 million(58.4%) in 2021. The working-age population is expected to halve from2021 to 53.31 million (51.4%) in 2050 and 36.87 million (50.1%) in 2100. On
the other hand, the ratio of the elderly population to the total population

Part Ⅰ
Part Ⅱ

2. Population Trends in Major Countries

Part ⅢAmerica region.
By age group, the working-age population is steadily increasing andis expected to account for a large portion of the total population until
the year 2100. The elderly population is expected to increase at a slower
pace than the working-age population after 2040. On the other hand, thejuvenile population is expected to gradually decline after 2080, although
it has been on an increasing trend.
The crude birth rate remained at a high level of approximately 40
per 1,000 population from 1950 to the 1990s, and is expected to decline
gradually after 2000. On the other hand, the crude death rate remained atabout 20 per 1,000 population from the 1950s to the 1970s, but has showna downward trend since 1980, and is expected to remain flat or increaseslightly after the 2020s. Thus, the African region is characterized by thefact that the crude birth rate has consistently been higher than the crude
death rate.

87

Part Ⅳ

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

88

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024(million people)
160(per 1,000 people)
50.0
0-14

140

2021: 125 million people

120

65+
Crude Birth Rate: right axis
Crude Death Rate: right axis

100

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0

80

20.0

60
40

15-64

2005

15.0
10.0

20

5.0

0.0
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-8

Population in Japan (by age group) and crude birth anddeath rates

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

was 4.9% in 1950, but has increased significantly to 29.8% in 2021. The
aging rate is projected to be 37.5% in 1950 and 38.7% in 2100, indicatingthat the aging of the population is expected to further progress.
The crude birth rate averaged 24 per 1,000 population in the first halfof the 1950s after the so-called “First Baby Boom4)” and showed a downward trend until 1961. It again showed an upward trend from 1962 to
1974, which included the period of the “second baby boom5),” but turned
to a downward trend after 1975. On the other hand, the crude death rate
has been on an upward trend since 1980 and exceeded the crude birthrate in 2005.
[China]Figure 1-CB-9 shows the trends of population by age group, crude birthrate, and crude death rate in China.
Although the total population has been on an increasing trend, it is4) The term “first baby boom” refers to the phenomenon in which more than 2.6
million babies were born each year between 1947 and 1949.
5) The “second baby boom” is the term used to refer to the phenomenon in which
the generation of children born during the “first baby boom,” were born by morethan 2 million each year from 1971 to 1974. The birth rate temporarily declined in
1966, which is believed to be due to the superstition that women born in the year of
Hinoe-uma have a violent temperament, and many couples avoided having children
in that year.

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022(million people)
1,800
1,600
1,400

(per 1,000 people)
50.0
0-14
2021: 1,426 million people

15-64
65+
Crude Birth Rate: right axis
Crude Death Rate: right axis

1,200

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0

1,000

25.0

800

20.0

600
400

89

2023

15.0
10.0

200

5.0

expected to peak at 1,425.89 million in 2021, and is expected to decline
thereafter.
The working-age population peaked at 998.23 million (71.6%) in2015 and began to decline, reaching 986.46 million (69.2%) in 2021. The
population is expected to continue to decline thereafter, reaching 767.37
million (58.5%) in 2050 and 378.06 million (49.3%) in 2100. On the other
hand, the aging rate is projected to be 5.0% in 1950, 13.1% in 2021, 30.1%
in 2050, and 40.9% in 2100. The aging population is expected to be higher
than that of Japan in 2100, and it will need to urgently cope with an aging
society in the future.
The crude birth rate averaged about 40 per 1,000 population in the
1950s and 1960s, excluding the effects of the great famine in China6).
After 1970, the crude birth rate showed a gradual downward trend, but
increased somewhat in the 1980s. Since 1990, however, it has again been
on a downward trend, and is expected to fall below the crude death rateby 2023.
[Korea]Figure 1-CB-10 shows trends in population by age group, crude birthrate, and crude death rate in Korea.
6) In addition to the occurrence of natural disasters, China experienced a large-scale
famine in 1959-1961 due to the “Great Leap Forward” policy of that time.

Part Ⅱ

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

Part Ⅲ

Population in China (by age group) and crude birth anddeath rates

Part Ⅳ

Figure 1-CB-9Part Ⅰ

0.0
01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

90

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024(million people)
80(per 1,000 people)
50.0
0-14

70
60

15-64
2021: 52 million people

50

Crude Death Rate: right axis

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0

40

20.0

30
20

65+
Crude Birth Rate: right axis

15.0
2019

10

10.0
5.0

0
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-10

Population in Korea (by age group) and crude birth anddeath rates

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

As the figure shows, the total population is projected to peak at 51.85
million in 2020 and decline to 24.1 million by 2100.
The working-age population peaked at 37.64 million (73.1%) in 2017and has been on a downward trend since, reaching 37.04 million (71.5%)
in 2021. The working-age population is expected to further decrease
to 23.98 million (52.4%) in 2050 and 11.16 million (46.3%) in 2100. On
the other hand, the aging rate, which was 2.7% in 1950, is expected
to increase significantly to 16.7% in 2021. The aging rate will further
increase to 39.4% in 2050, peaking at 47.5% in 2081, and continuing at ahigh level thereafter. As approximately half of the population of Korea
will be elderly within the next 60 years, it will be necessary to take moreurgent measures to cope with an aging society than in Japan and China.
The crude birth rate, which had remained at about 40 per 1,000
population in the 1950s, declined rapidly from 1960 onward. The crude
death rate, on the other hand, was very high during the Korean War(1950-1953), but declined rapidly thereafter, and began to rise again in
the 2000s, exceeding the crude birth rate in 2019.
[India]Figure 1-CB-11 shows trends in population by age group, crude birthrate, and crude death rate in India.
The total population has been steadily increasing since 1950, andColumn B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022(million people)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

91

(per 1,000 people)
50.0
0-14
Crude Birth Rate: right axis

15-64

65+

Crude Death Rate: right axis

45.0
40.0

2021: 1,408 million people

35.0

1,200

30.0

1,000

25.0
20.0

800
2066

600

15.0

400

10.0

200

5.0

is expected to reach 1,407.56 million in 2021, surpassing China as theworld’s most populous country by 2023.
The working-age population is expected to peak at 1,119.4 million(67.4%) in 2048, followed by a downward trend. The aging rate in 1950
was 3.1%, and it will be 6.8% in 2021, still in the single-digit range. Thisrate would increase by 29.8% in 2100, which is still lower than in Japan,
China, and Korea.
The crude birth rate remained at about 40 per 1,000 population from1950 to 1970, and has shown a gradual downward trend since then. On
the other hand, the crude death rate, which had been gradually declining
since 1950, is expected to rise again after 2018 and to exceed the crude
birth rate in 2066.
[Russia]
We have looked at the demographics of major Asian countries, so let us
now examine the demographics of Russia, a country with close ties toAsia. Figure 1-CB-12 shows the population by age group, crude birthrate, and crude death rate in Russia.
The total population peaked at 148.9 million in 1993 and has been on
a declining trend, increasing somewhat since 2010, but then declining
again in 2020, reaching 145.1 million in 2021. The population of Russia is
expected to decrease to 133.13 million in 2050 and to 112.07 million in 2100.

Part Ⅱ

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

Part Ⅲ

Population in India (by age group) and crude birth anddeath rates

Part Ⅳ

Figure 1-CB-11

Part Ⅰ

0.0
01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

92

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024(million people)
200(per 1,000 people)
50.0
0-14

180

15-64

160

2021: 145 million people

140

Crude Death Rate: right axis

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0

120

25.0

100
80

65+
Crude Birth Rate: right axis

1992

2021

2022

20.0

60

15.0

40

10.0

20

5.0

0.0
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CA-12

Population in Russia (by age group) and crude birth anddeath rates

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

The crude birth rate has been higher than the crude death ratesince the establishment of the Russian Federation in 19917). Although
the crude birth rate increased somewhat after 20108), it is expected to
decline again after 2020, remaining at about 10 per 1,000 population. The
crude death rate was high in 2022, partly due to the invasion in Ukraine,but it had already risen sharply in the previous year.
(2) Comparative analysis of total fertility rates
We have looked at population by age group and crude birth and death
rates in major countries and regions. Here, we focus our analysis on the7) According to Kumo (2022), the “sharp decline in the birth rate since the 1990s isdue to the abolition and fee-charging of social childcare support facilities such as
nursery schools and kindergartens, which were extremely inexpensive in the Soviet era, and the sharp decline in income following the systemic change, which has
darkened future prospects.” The increase in the mortality rate was attributed to“increased social stress, increased alcohol consumption, worsening social unrest,
and the spread of accidents and crimes.”
8) Kumo (2022) points out that the “Maternity Capital,” launched in 2007, has had an
impact on the temporary increase in the birth rate. The fund was established toprovide 250,000 rubles (about JPY 1.2 million at the time) to parents with two or
more children to subsidize either the cost of purchasing a house, the cost of theirchildren’s education, or the accumulation of funds in a pension fund. Considering that the average monthly income in Russia was 12,000 rubles as of September
2007, its benefit is considered to be very large.

8.0
World
Asia
EuropeAfricaPopulation replacement level

7.0
6.0

Part Ⅰ
Part Ⅱ

total fertility rate9), an important variable for population projections.
According to the WPP2022 medium projection, the global total
fertility rate is 2.31 in 2022 (Figure 1-CB-13), falling below the replacement-level fertility rate (2.07) in 2059, and is projected to decrease to 1.84
by 2100. The population of Europe fell below the replacement-level as
early as 1975, while the population of Asia will fall below the replacementlevel in 2019, and the population of Africa fell below the replacement-levelin 2091. There are major differences by region, so let’s take a look at the
total fertility rates in major Asian countries (Figure 1-CB-14).
First, the total fertility rate in Japan has been on a downward trend
since 1950, and although it fell far below the replacement-level fertility
rate in 1966 due to the aforementioned “Hinoe-uma” superstition, it rose
again and remained near 2.00. In 1974, it fell below the replacement-levelfertility rate at 2.06, and has remained below 2.00 since then. The replacement-level fertility rate is projected to be 1.31 in 2022, 1.47 in 2050, and1.55 in 2100.
Next, China’s total fertility rate remained at an average level of
6.00 from 1950 to 1970, excluding the effects of the famine mentioned

93

Part Ⅲ

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

Part Ⅳ

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-13

Total Fertility Rates in Major World Regions

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

9) Total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman bears during her lifetime. The total fertility rate at which the population reaches an equilibrium state ofneither increasing nor decreasing is called the “replacement-level fertility,” which
is set at 2.07 in 2022. If the birth rate falls below this level, children become fewer,
leading to a decrease in the population.

94

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024

8.0
Japan
China
India
Korea
Population replacement level

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1-CB-14

Total Fertility Rate in Asian Countries

Note: Actual data until 2021, medium estimates after 2022
Source: Prepared by the author using WPP2022

above. However, since 1970, partly due to the introduction of the “onechild policy,” the rate has been on a downward trend, and by 2020 it was
projected to be 1.28, below the level of Japan.10) Although the rate is projected to rise somewhat to 1.39 by 2050 and to 1.48 by 2100, it is still
below the replacement-level fertility rate.
Korea’s total fertility rate averaged 6.06 in the 1950s. However, sincethe 1960s, it has been on a downward trend and recorded 1.93, which is
below the replacement-level fertility rate. In 2001, it was 1.30, which was
lower than that of Japan (1.33) during the same period, and in 2021, it was
as low as 0.88. It is expected to increase somewhat to 1.17 in 2050 and to
1.43 in 2100, but it is still below the replacement-level fertility rate.
India’s total fertility rate averaged 5.66 between the 1950s and1970s, and remained above the population replacement level until 2019,
although it showed a gradual downward trend after 1980. In 2021, thebirthrate fell below the replacement-level fertility rate at 2.03, and has
shown a declining trend since then, but remains above the levels ofJapan, China, and South Korea.

10) Trends in China’s total fertility rate are also discussed in Chapter 1 Section 1.

Column B / New Population Dynamics: From WPP2022

95

References
Japan Research Institute, Economic & Policy Report, “How Asia’s Demographic Outlook Has Changed After the COVID-19 Pandemic”(Japanese title: Koronaka wo Hete Ajia no Jinko Dotai no Mitoshi ha
Do Kawattaka), (November 11, 2022) (https://www.jri.co.jp/page.
jsp?id=103853)
JETRO, Regional and Analytical Report, “China’s Population to Decline,
India to Lead the World in 2023: UN Prediction” (Japanese title:
Chugoku no Jinko ga Gensho, 2023nen niha Indo ga Sekai Shui:
Kokuren Yosoku), (September 27, 2022) (https://www.jetro.go.jp/
biz/areareports/2022/db12433a352ecc90.html)
Kumo, K. (2022), “Russia’s Declining Population and Acceptance ofPart Ⅱ
Part ⅢPart Ⅳ

To demonstrate the future prospects of the world economy, it is important to analyze the growth of the whole-element productivity, population,and capital in growth accounting. Column B presents the future world
population and dynamics, by region and major country, based on new
population estimates. The following are some of the important points
obtained from WPP2022.
The center of future world population growth is shifting from Asia
to Africa.
This is due to the fact that in Asia, China, which has had the world’s
largest population to date, is expected to decline, while India’s population
is projected to grow steadily. Population growth in Asia as a whole willslow down.
In Japan and Korea, the working-age population is expected to
decline due to the further development of the aging society with a declining birth rate.
One of the new issues emerging from global population dynamics
is the need to address labor shortages. This is a major challenge for theJapanese economy in particular. In addition to increasing productivity,
it is important to increase the labor participation rate of women and theelderly. Establishment of well-balanced work styles is important for thispurpose.

Part Ⅰ

3. Summary

96

Chapter 1 / Major Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2023–2024

Foreign Labor: Migration Policy from Russian Perspective” (Japanese title: Roshia no Jinko Gensho to Gaikokujin Rodo no Juyo Roshia
Kara Mita Imin Seisaku), (https://www2.jiia.or.jp/kokusaimondai_archive/2020/2022-08_004.pdf?noprint, last viewed on July 9, 2023)(August 2022, No. 708), Japan Institute of International Affairs.
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Research Monthly Report, November
2022, No. 127, “Future as Seen in ‘World Population Estimates’ by
the United Nations” (Japanese title: Kokuren ‘Sekai Jinko Suikei’
Kara Mieru Mirai), (https://www.smtb.jp/-/media/tb/personal/
useful/report-economy/pdf/127.pdf)
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Division (2019), “World Population Prospects 2019,”(https://population.un.org/wpp2019/Publications/, last viewed on
July 10, 2023)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2022), “World Population Prospects 2022,”(https://population. un.org/wpp/Publications/, last viewed on July
10, 2023)