Chapter

3

Section 1
Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture during
the COVID-19 Pandemic

Part Ⅰ

Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy
Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

1) See The Yomiuri Shimbun (2021).

Part Ⅲ

According to the National (Population and Housing) Census (preliminary figures) published in June 2021 by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), the total population of Japan as of October 1, 2020, decreased
0.7% from 2015 to 126.2 million people, but the rate of decrease (2015/10: −0.8%)
was slightly smaller than that of the previous Census. This was due to an increase in the number of foreigners living in Japan and an increase in the numberof Japanese who returned to Japan from abroad due to the spread of COVID-19
infection, although the natural decrease in the number of deaths exceeding thenumber of births increased1). By prefecture, the population of Tokyo increased
4.1% from the previous Census, exceeding 14 million people for the first timeand accounting for approximately 11% of the nationwide population. On the other hand, Kansai was down 0.8% from last time to 20.5 million. Within Kansai,
the population increase rate declined in Shiga prefecture while Osaka changed
from a decrease to an increase, and the remaining prefectures increased theirdecrease rates (Table 3-1-1).
While the population continues to decrease in Japan, a state of emergency
declaration was issued four times due to COVID-19, forcing people to significantly modify their behavior. The flow of people was suppressed in an effort tocontrol the spread of infections, which had a great impact on migration dynamics. In particular, while net migration to Tokyo where population is concentrated

Part Ⅳ

1. Introduction

Part Ⅱ

NOMURA, Ryosuke; KINOSHITA, Yusuke

166

Chapter 3 / Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Table 3-1-1
Prefecture

Population increase/decrease in the six prefectures of Kansai,
Tokyo, and nationwide

Total：thousands people

Increase-decrease rates(2020/15)：%

Increase-decrease rates(2015/10)：%

Shiga

1,414

0.09

0.15

Kyoto

2,580

-1.17

-0.98

Osaka

8,843

0.03

-0.29

Hyogo

5,469

-1.19

-0.95

Nara

1,325

-2.85

-2.60

Wakayama

923

-4.21

-3.85

Kansai

20,554

-0.83

-0.85

Tokyo

14,0654.07

2.70

Nationwide

126,227

-0.68

-0.75

Source: Created by the author based on the Statistics Bureau, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) 2020 National (Population and Housing) Census and 2015 National (Population andHousing) Census.

shrank, net migration to Osaka increased, showing different dynamics. Looking
at the migration dynamics of 2021 by month, we see changes in the migration
dynamics due to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the trend of a net loss continuing in Tokyo, with the population decreasing for four consecutive months to
14,037,872 as of September 12).
Thus in this section, we will focus mainly on Osaka and provide an outline
and analysis of how the trend in migration dynamics over the last few years
has changed due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We will also look at
how the four state of emergency declarations impacted migration dynamics ona monthly basis.

2. Change in Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture(1) Change in Migration Dynamics in 2020: Tokyo vs. Osaka
Before looking at the migration dynamics in Osaka Prefecture, let’s look at thesituation in Tokyo. According to MIC’s Report on Internal Migration in Japan
Derived from the Basic Resident Registration, in 2020, in-migrants to Tokyo
were 432,930 and out-migrants were 401,805. As a result, net migration was
31,125, down 51,857 from 2019. This was the lowest since 2014 when they began
including foreign nationals in their records, showing a shift away from the social
structure of so-called “overconcentration in Tokyo” up until that time (Figure
3-1-1). Possible factors include people not being able to move to advance intohigher education or to start a new job due to the state of emergency declaration,2) See Nikkei (2021-b).

Section 1 / Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture during the COVID-19 Pandemic

167

Tokyo

200,000

74,324 73,124 79,844

82,982100,000

80,00060,00040,000‒100,000

432,930 20,000
0‒401,805‒20,000‒200,000‒40,000‒300,000‒60,000‒400,000‒80,000

0‒500,000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

‒100,000

In-migrants: left axis
Out-migrants: left axis
In-migrants － out-migrants: right axis

Figure 3-1-1

Shifts in in-migrants and out-migrants in Tokyo: 2014–2020

Osaka

200,000

13,356150,000

8,064

100,000
50,0000‒1,666

906

404

1,136

2,388

15,00010,000172,563‒159,207‒50,000

20,0005,000
0‒5,000Net migration (people)

In-migrants/out-migrants (people)

Note: Includes foreign migrants.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration.

‒100,000‒10,000‒150,000‒15,000‒200,000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

‒20,000

In-migrants: left axis
Out-migrants: left axis
In-migrants － out-migrants: right axis

Figure 3-1-2

Shifts in in-migrants and out-migrants in Osaka: 2014–2020

Note: Includes foreign migrants.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration.

Part Ⅰ

84,231

Part Ⅱ

300,000 76,027

100,000
31,125

Part Ⅲ

400,000

Part Ⅳ

500,000

Net migration (people)

In-migrants/out-migrants (people)

etc., and an increase in people moving out of Tokyo due to the spread of teleworking.
Next, looking at the situation in Osaka Prefecture, in-migrants were 172,563
and out-migrants were 159,207. As a result, net migration was 13,356, up 5,292
from 2019. Looking at the trend, since shifting to net migration in 2015, net
migration has continued for six consecutive years (Figure 3-1-2). In Kansai,
inbound tourism demand has increased mainly centered on Osaka since 2014,

168

Chapter 3 / Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

which may have led to people working in services such as restaurants and accommodation3). However, in 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,
both in-migrants and out-migrants decreased for the first time in four years. The
decrease in out-migrants was greater than that of in-migrants, resulting in net
migration.
(2) Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture: Characteristics by Region and Age Group: 2018 to 2020
First, let’s look at the characteristics of migration dynamics in Osaka Prefecture
by region. Figure 3-1-3 shows net migration in Osaka by region4).
As shown in the figure, net migration from Kansai was the largest, increasing from 6,293 in 2018 to 8,385 in 2019. In 2020, even though the flow of people
was suppressed due to COVID-19, net migration was 10,665, increasing further
from 2019.
The migration dynamics within Southern Kanto show a continuing net loss
trend although contracting somewhat, from 12,116 in 2018 to 11,852 in 2019.
In 2020, it contracted even more to 8,567. The fact that relocations for higher
education or to start a new job were restricted due to the state of emergency
declarations, etc., may have played a role.
(People)15,000

10,6658,385
6,293

10,0005,000
0‒5,000‒10,0002018

Figure 3-1-3

2019

KyusyuShikoku

ChugokuKansai

Tokai

Hokuriku

Southern
Kanto
Northern
Kanto/
Koshinetsu

Hokkaaido

Tohoku‒8,567‒12,116 ‒11,852‒15,000

2020

Comparison of net migration in Osaka by region: 2018–2020

Note: Includes foreign migrants. For Kansai, migration within Osaka Prefecture is excluded.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration.

3) The high employment capacity of these industries is described in detail in Chapter 4 Section 4 of this book.
4) The regional classifications are in accordance with the definitions by MIC. Kinki has beenchanged to Kansai. (https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000611949.pdf)

In other regions, net migration increased in Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyusyu
from 2018 to 2019, but it somewhat decreased in 2020. It is possible that migrants from far away were also influenced by the above-mentioned factors, suchas the issuing of the state of emergency declarations.
Next, let’s look at the change in net migration over time by age group(Table 3-1-2).
The age group with the most net migration in 2018 was the 20 to 24 group,with 4,472 in Kansai, 1,710 in Chugoku, 1,364 in Kyusyu, and 1,299 in Shikoku.
Furthermore, in 2019, net migration in the 20 to 24 age group in the four
regions above all increased compared to in 2018. Additionally, net migration in
the 25 to 29 age group also increased, with Kyusyu shifting from a net loss in2018 to net migration.
However, looking at the net migration for the 20 to 24 age group in 2020,
Net migration and net loss by age group and region: 2018–2020:
Osaka Prefecture(Unit：people)

2018
Northern
Kanto / Hokuriku
Koshinetsu

Tokai

Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu

Total

2,388

189

642 -12,116

218

606

636

6,293

2,569

1,845

1,506

15-19

2,034

8

52

-902

31

123

199

336

597

545

1,045

20-24

5,778

96

182

-3,904

2

449

108

4,472

1,710

1,299

1,364

25-29

548

103

128

-2,897

46

135

-190

2,704

268

299

-48

2019
Age

Nationwide Hokkaido Tohoku

Southern
Kanto

NorthernKanto/ Hokuriku
Koshinetsu

Tokai

Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu

Total

8,064

253

553 -11,852

278

1,064

1,739

8,385

3,321

2,504

15-19

2,344

46

46

-708

-22

126

260

362

640

605

1,819
989

20-24

6,783

65

154

-4,332

82

557

360

4,710

2,007

1,648

1,532

25-29

2,327

149

136

-2,748

46

187

284

3,382

434

263

194

2020
Age

Nationwide Hokkaido Tohoku

Southern
Kanto

NorthernKanto/ Hokuriku
Koshinetsu

Tokai

Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu

Total

13,356199

420-8,567

82

986

2,585

10,665

3,002

2,448

15-19

2,846

24

53

-516

25

114

352

633

591

669

1,536
901

20-24

8,768

121

181

-4,018

68

652

634

6,392

1,901

1,549

1,288

25-29

3,737

65

67

-2,143

50

143

466

4,160

402

307

220

Note: Includes foreign migrants. For Kansai, migration within Osaka Prefecture is excluded.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration.

Part Ⅲ

Age

Southern
Nationwide Hokkaido Tohoku
Kanto

Part Ⅳ

Table 3-1-2

Part Ⅰ

169

Part Ⅱ

Section 1 / Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture during the COVID-19 Pandemic

170

Chapter 3 / Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kansai saw an increase while Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyusyu saw decreases.
Meanwhile, looking at the situation for southern Kanto, there was an outflow of the younger age group, with net loss increasing from 2018 to 2019 forthe 20 to 24 age group. However, due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic
suppressing the flow of people, the net loss to Southern Kanto in the above agegroup decreased in 2020.
From the above, we can see the net migration to Osaka is mainly from western Japan and that many of the migrants are from a generation that move forwork. This is possibly due to Osaka having been supported by strong inboundtourism demand, which increased the number of people working in the service industry. However, due to the flow of people being limited as a measure toprevent the spread of COVID-19, in-migrants, particularly those in the younger
generation, decreased.
(2) Migration Dynamics within Osaka Prefecture
Having discussed the characteristics of the migration dynamics by region andby age group, we will now look at them by municipality in Osaka Prefecture.
During the three years from 2018 to 2020, 16 municipalities experienced net
migration while 27 municipalities experienced a net loss in Osaka Prefecture.
Among them, net migration to Osaka City expanded from 12,081 in 2018 to
13,762 in 2019 and 16,802 in 2020. Migration dynamics vary depending on thearea within Osaka Prefecture. Many of the municipalities with net migration are
in the northern part of Osaka Prefecture, with more areas having an increasein net migration. Meanwhile, many of the municipalities with a net loss are in
the southern part of Osaka Prefecture, with a continuing trend of a net loss.
2018

2019

2020

(people)10,000
1,000
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750

Figure 3-1-4Comparison of net migration by municipality: 2018–2020

Note: Includes foreign migrants.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration

Section 1 / Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture during the COVID-19 Pandemic

171

Thus, Osaka Prefecture as a whole may show net migration, but by municipality,
net migration figures vary between the Osaka City area, and the northern andsouthern areas (Figure 3-1-4).

Comparison of in-migration/out-migration situation by genderduring the state of emergency declaration in Osaka Prefecture

Table 3-1-3Part Ⅰ

3. Impact of the Declaration of State of Emergency on Migration
Dynamics
In the previous section, we looked at the migration dynamics during the
COVID-19 pandemic by region and age group on an annual basis. In this section,
we will look at the impact of the state of emergency declarations, which were
issued four times, on the migration dynamics of Osaka Prefecture on a monthly

Out-migrants:
Difference
from same
period (month)in 2019

1st(Apr toMay 2020)

20,54819,462

1,086-1,758-2,963

2nd(Jan to Feb
2021)

11,541

11,572

-31

81

528

429

138

3rd
(2021 Q2)

25,95926,172-213-1,213556-2,522-2,136

4th(Aug toSep 2021)

11,562

11,528

34

-916

-3

-1,076-828

In-migrants Out-migrants

Net
migration(loss)

Out-migrants:
In-migrants:
In-migrants:
Difference
Difference from Difference fromsame period
from same
same period(month) in pre- (month) in pre- period (month)in 2019
vious year
vious year

Out-migrants:
Difference
from same
period (month)in 2019

Women

1st(Apr toMay 2020)

15,893

14,285

1,608-2,738-3,203

2nd(Jan to Feb
2021)

9,715

9,625

90

-524

207

-257

104

3rd
(2021 Q2)

21,11520,034

1,081

131

1,076

-2,505-2,223

4th(Aug toSep 2021)

9,695

9,743

-48

-479

240

-1,030-706

Note: Includes foreign migrants.
Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ (MIC) Report on
Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registration.

Part ⅢIn-migrants Out-migrants

Out-migrants:
In-migrants:
In-migrants:
Difference
Difference from Difference fromsame period
from same
same period(month) in pre- (month) in pre- period (month)in 2019
vious year
vious year

Part Ⅳ

MenNet
migration(loss)Part Ⅱ(Unit: people)

172

Chapter 3 / Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy Due to the COVID-19 Pandemicbasis (Table 3-1-3).
Looking at April to May of 2020, the period when the first state of emergency declaration was issued for Osaka Prefecture (April 7 to May 21, 2020),
there were 20,548 men and 15,893 women in-migrants. April is when in-migrants
tend to increase to advance into higher education or to start a new job, but compared to in the same period in the previous year (April to May of 2019), there
was a 1,758 decrease in men and 2,738 decrease in women. Similarly, looking atout-migrants, there were 19,462 men (−2,963 YoY) and 14,285 women (−3,203
YoY), both decreasing. In-migrants and out-migrants both decreased significantly, and the impact of restrictions on movement across prefectures due to the issuing of the state of emergency declarations was more apparent among women.
In 2021, state of emergency declarations were issued three times. Looking
at the period when it was issued for the second time (January 14 to February
28, 2021), in-migrants for the January to February 2021 period were 11,541 men(+81 YoY) and 9,715 women (−524 YoY), with a bigger decrease among women than men compared to in the previous year. On the other hand, looking atout-migrants for the same period, 11,572 were men (+528 YoY) and 9,625 were
women (+207 YoY).
Looking at the in-migrants for 2021 Q2, the period in which the third stateof emergency declaration (April 25 to June 20, 2021) was issued, partly due toit being a time to advance into higher education or to start a new job, there
were 25,959 men and 21,115 women. However, compared to the same period
in the year before the previous year (2019 Q2), when the COVID-19 pandemic
had no impact, both men and women decreased significantly, −2,522 and −2,505
respectively. Looking at the out-migrants for the same period, there were 26,172
men (−2,136 YoY) and 20,034 women (−2,223 YoY). Consequently, both men
and women saw significant decreases in both in-migrants and out-migrants, but
because women finished with net migration (1,081), the overall result remained
net migration (868).
During the fourth period (August 2 to September 30, 2021), in-migrants in
the August to September period decreased for both men and women, of 11,562(−1,076 compared to the same period of the year before the previous year) and
9,695 (−1,030 of the same period) respectively. Additionally, out-migrants were
11,528 (−828 of the same period) for men and 9,743 (−706 of the same period)
for women, with the decrease in in-migrants greater than that of out-migrants,
resulting in a shift to a net loss.
Thus, the state of emergency declarations issued four times have influenced
migration dynamics. The impact has varied depending on gender, and in general, it has been greater for women in-migrants.

Section 1 / Migration Dynamics in Osaka Prefecture during the COVID-19 Pandemic

1735) Nikkei (2021-a) also refers to the convenient transportation and comfortable living in thenorthern area of Osaka Prefecture.

Part Ⅱ
Part ⅢPart Ⅳ

As discussed above, migration dynamics are changing due to the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic. In Tokyo, population is flowing out of Tokyo due to the
spread of teleworking, etc. and net migration is shrinking. In Osaka Prefecture, there has been a continuing trend of net migration due to people moving
there to work in inbound tourism-related industries that have been strong thus
far. However, with inbound tourism demand having vanished today due to the
COVID-19 pandemic, service industries such as restaurant and accommodation
have been hit hard. The impact can be particularly seen among people in their
20s who move to Osaka Prefecture from western Japan to work in these relatedindustries. Additionally, looking at the municipalities in Osaka Prefecture, anincrease in net migration in Osaka City is continuing and in the northern partof Osaka Prefecture, areas that previously had a net loss are shifting to net migration. Meanwhile, in the southern part of Osaka Prefecture, net losses arecontinuing in many areas and migration dynamics vary between areas.
Moreover, two years has passed since the COVID-19 pandemic began, andthe state of emergency declarations issued four times for Osaka Prefecture have
had a major impact on migration dynamics.
Despite being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the net migration trendof Osaka Prefecture continues. As mentioned earlier, this is largely due to the
inflow of population not only into Osaka City, but also into the northern part of
Osaka. One of the factors behind the expansion of net migration into the northern area is that it is located in the middle of a key transportation hub facing
the east and west to the central part of Osaka Prefecture, neighboring Kyoto
Prefecture, etc., and it has convenient transportation and redevelopments ofresidential areas creating a comfortable living environment for local residents5).
With many events planned for Osaka Prefecture in the future, including the
EXPO Osaka, Kansai, Japan, its migration dynamics will draw more attention.
Access to the southern area that has had a net loss until now is expected to improve with the development of a transportation infrastructure network toward
the hosting of the EXPO Osaka, Kansai, Japan. With the EXPO Osaka, Kansai,
Japan approaching in three and a half years’ time, if we can stimulate innovationsuch as ICT and create new industries and employment to revitalize not only the
movement of people between Osaka Prefecture and other prefectures, but also
between the north and south within Osaka Prefecture, some impact should bePart Ⅰ

4. Conclusion

174

Chapter 3 / Structural Changes in Kansai’s Economy Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

visible in the migration dynamics of Osaka Prefecture in the future.
References
Nikkei (2021-a), “Kansai’s Population Further Concentrating in City Centers:
Marked Increase in Commuter Towns” (Japanese title: Kansai no Jinko,
Toshin Shuchu Ichidan to—Bedtown no Zouka Kencho), July 16, (https://www.
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUF2942W0Z20C21A6000000/, last viewed:
October 6)
Nikkei (2021-b), “Population in Tokyo in September, Decreased Four Consecutive Months” (Japanese title: Tokyo no 9 gatsu no Jinko, 4 kagetsu Renzoku
de Gensho), September 30, (https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOCC305K00Q1A930C2000000/, last viewed: October 3)
The Yomiuri Shimbun (2021), “Japan’s Population 126.22 Million: 2020 National(Population and Housing) Census, Down Twice in a Row” (Japanese title:
Nihon no Jinko 1 oku 2,622 man nin: 20 nen Kokusei Chosa 2 kai Renzoku
no Gensho), June 25, evening edition