ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013ർᶏ㆏ࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚ࿾ၞ᳇୥੍᷹⎇ⓥߩേะ૒⮮෹ᓼ࡮ ጊ↰᦮ੱ࡮ Ⓑᵤዂ࡮ ਛ᧛৻᮸࡮ ᧖ᧄᔒ❱࡮ ችፒ⌀࡮ ਭ㊁㦖੺  ർᶏ㆏ᄢቇᄢቇ㒮࿾⃿ⅣႺ⑼ቇ⎇ⓥ㒮‫ ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ᄢቇᄢቇ㒮Ꮏቇ⎇ⓥ㒮‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ᄢቇᄢቇ㒮ℂቇ⎇ⓥ㒮‫⃻ ޔ‬ᚲዻ㧦㒐ἴ⑼ቇᛛⴚ⎇ⓥᚲ㔐᳖㒐ἴ
⎇ⓥ࠮ࡦ࠲࡯‫ ޔ‬࿖┙ᭂ࿾⎇ⓥᚲ‫ ޔ‬ᩣᑼળ␠ࠕ࡯ࠢᖱႎࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ  ߪߓ߼ߦ᳇୥ᄌേߪੱ㘃ߩᢥൻ⊛↢ᵴߦ߆߆ࠊࠆ㊀ⷐߥ໧㗴ߣߒߡ‫ޔ‬ㄭᐕᄢ߈ߊขࠅ਄ߍࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᚒ߇࿖ߦ߅޿ߡ߽‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᄌേߦࠃࠆᓇ㗀ߪ‫ޔ‬ㄘᨋ᳓↥ᬺ‫ޔ‬᳓⾗Ḯ‫↢ޔ‬ᘒ♽‫ޔ‬૑ⅣႺ‫ߤߥ∛∉ޔ‬ᐢ▸ߦ෸߱ߎߣ߇ ᔨߐࠇߡ߅ࠅ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᄌേ੍᷹⎇ⓥߣ੍᷹࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚᓇ㗀⹏ଔ⎇ⓥ߇ⴕ
ࠊࠇߡ߈ߚ㧔଀߃߫‫ޔ‬ᢥㇱ⑼ቇ⋭߶߆, 2013㧕‫⥄ޕ‬ὼ↢ᘒ♽ߦ߅޿ߡ߽᳇᷷ߩ㐳ᦼ⊛ߥ਄᣹ߦኻᔕߒߡᬀ↢ߩಽᏓၞ߇ᄌㆫߒߡ޿ߊน⢻ᕈ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Nakao et al., 2011 ߥߤ㧕߶߆‫ޔ‬᳓᷷߿᳇᷷ߩ਄᣹ߦ઻ߞߡ᳓♽ᗵᨴ∝߿Ⰶᇦ੺ᕈᗵᨴ∝ߩᬌ಴ၞߩർ਄㧔ୖᩮ, 2009㧕ߥߤ߇ෂᗋߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᣣᧄߪ‫ޔ‬੝ᾲᏪ߆ࠄ੝ኙᏪ߹ߢߩ᳇୥Ꮺߦ૏⟎ߒߡ޿ࠆߚ߼‫ޔ‬ㆡ⏕ߥᓇ㗀੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߚ߼ߦߪ‫ޔ‬࿾ၞ⹦⚦ߥ᳇୥੍᷹࠺࡯࠲߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆ‫ޕ‬᳇୥࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡᓧࠄࠇߚᓇ㗀੍᷹ࠍ߽ߣߦ‫ޔ‬ㆡᔕ╷ߩ╷ቯ߇ⴕࠊࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᳇୥ᄌേߦኻߔࠆㆡᔕ╷ߪ‫ޔ‬᳇᷷߿㒠᳓㊂ߩ዁᧪ᄌൻ߿ߘࠇߦ઻ߞߡ੍⷗ߐࠇࠆ᭽‫ߥޘ‬ᓇ㗀ߦ஻߃‫ੱޔ‬㘃ߩ༡ߺ߿⥄ὼⅣႺ߇ฃߌࠆᷓೞߥᓇ㗀ࠍᦨዊൻߔࠆߎߣ߇⋡⊛ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔ߫߃ߣߚޕ‬ᴦ᳓࡮೑᳓ߩⷰὐߢߪ‫߿ࡓ࠳ޔ‬ႇ㒐ߩᑪ⸳⸘↹ߩ⷗⋥ߒ߿ㆇ↪ᣇᴺߩᡷༀ╬߇᜼ߍࠄࠇࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬ㄘᬺಽ㊁ߦ߅޿ߡߪ‫ޔ‬᳇᷷․ᕈߩᄌൻߦวࠊߖߚ૞‛߿ຠ⒳ߩᄌᦝ‫ߪߦࠄߐޔ‬⒳߹߈߿෼ⓠᤨᦼߥߤߩㄘᬺ
ᱧࠍୃᱜߔࠆߎߣ㧔Nemoto et al., 2012 ߥߤ㧕߇ኻ╷ߣߒߡ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ㆡᔕ╷ߢߪ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᄌേߦࠃࠆᓇ㗀ߩ․ᕈߛߌߢߥߊ‫ੱޔ‬ญ᭴ᚑ߿↥ᬺ᭴ㅧߩ․ᓽ߽⠨ᘦߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬࿾ၞߏߣߦᦨ߽ㆡಾߥㆡᔕ╷߇ណ↪ߐࠇࠆߴ߈ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߎߩࠃ߁ߥ⢛᥊߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬ᢥㇱ⑼ቇ⋭ߪㆡᔕ╷ᬌ⸛߳ߩ⑼ቇ⊛⍮⷗ߩឭଏ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᄌേߦࠃࠆᓇ㗀ߦᒝ޿␠ળߩታ⃻ߦ⽸₂ߔࠆߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߡ 2010 ᐕߦ‫ޟ‬᳇୥ᄌേㆡᔕ⎇ⓥផㅴࡊࡠࠣ࡜ࡓ
(Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation; RECCA)‫ߜ┙ࠍޠ‬਄ߍ‫ోޔ‬࿖߆ࠄ 12 ࿾ၞߩ⺖㗴߇ࠬ࠲࡯࠻ߒߚ‫ᧄޕ‬Ⓜߢߪ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ߦ㑐ㅪߩᷓ޿⺖㗴‫ޟ‬ർᶏ㆏ࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚ✚ว⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ㐿⊒ߣㆡᔕ㧔⺖㗴ઍ⴫࡮ጊ↰᦮ੱ㧕‫ޠ‬㧔એ㒠‫⺖ᧄޔ‬㗴ߣ⴫⸥ߔࠆ㧕ߢታᣉਛߩ⎇ⓥߦߟ޿ߡ⸃⺑ߔࠆ‫⺖ᧄޕ‬㗴ߪ 2010 ᐕᐲ߆ࠄ 2014 ᐕᐲ߹ߢ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ᄢቇߣᣣᧄ᳇⽎දળࠍਛᔃߣߒߚ↥ቇㅪ៤ࡊࡠࠫࠚࠢ࠻ߣߒߡታᣉߐࠇߡ߅ࠅ‫ޔ‬ᓧࠄࠇߚᚑᨐࠍർᶏ㆏ౝߩ࿾ᣇ⥄ᴦ૕߿㑐ㅪᯏ㑐‫⥸৻ߪ޿ࠆ޽ޔ‬Ꮢ᳃߳ߣ᥉෸ߔࠆ੍ቯߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߦࠃࠆ࿾ၞ⹦⚦ൻߣਇ⏕ታᕈ ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ
࿾ၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߩᓇ㗀੍᷹ߦ᳞߼ࠄࠇࠆ᳇୥੍᷹࠺࡯࠲ߪ਄ㅀߩㅢࠅ࿾ၞ᳇୥ߩ․ᓽࠍචಽ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013ߦ⴫⃻ߒߚ߽ߩߢߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿‫ߩ⃿ోޔߒ߆ߒޕ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞㧔એ㒠‫ޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ๭߱㧕ߦࠃࠆో਎⇇ߩ᳇୥ࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦߪ‫⃻ޔ‬࿷ߩ⸘▚ᯏᕈ⢻ߢߪ100 km⒟ᐲߩ㑆㓒ߢߒ߆⸘▚ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿‫ߩߎޕ‬႐ว‫ޔ‬ᣣᧄߪ30ὐ⒟ᐲߩઍ⴫ὐߢߒ߆⴫⃻ߢ߈ߕ‫ޔ‬⣄᪞ጊ⣂ࠍ⴫⃻ߔࠆߎߣߔࠄ࿎㔍ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㗔ၞ᳇⽎ࡕ࠺࡞㧔એ㒠‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߣ๭߱㧕ࠍ↪޿ߡ࿾ၞ⹦⚦ߥ᳇⽎ᖱႎࠍ૞ᚑߔࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߣ๭߫ࠇࠆᚻᴺ߇ᐢߊណ↪ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Ⓑᵤ࡮૒⮮, 2010㧕‫ޕ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߢߪ⸘▚㗔ၞࠍኻ⽎࿾ၞߦ㒢ቯߒ‫ߩߘޔ‬㗔ၞߩᄢ᳇஥㕙Ⴚ⇇߿ᶏ㕙᳓᷷ࠍࡔ࠶ࠪࡘߩ☻޿᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞߆ࠄᓧߡ‫ޔ‬㗔ၞౝߩ᳇⽎ࠍ⹦⚦ߦ⸘▚ߔࠆ㧔ߎࠇࠍࡀࠬ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߣ޿߁㧕‫ޕ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߢ10 km⒟ᐲߩ⸃௝ᐲ߇޽ࠇ߫‫ޔ‬⣄᪞ጊ⣂ߪ߽ߜࠈࠎߩߎߣ‫ޔ‬ᐔ㊁߿⋆࿾‫ޔ‬ᶏጯ✢߽߆ߥࠅ⃻ታ⊛ߥ߽ߩߦߥࠆ‫ߥ߁ࠃߩߎޕ‬࿾ၞ․᦭ߩ⥄ὼ࿾ℂ⊛᧦ઙ߽㗔ၞ᳇⽎ߩ⸘▚ߦขࠅ౉ࠇࠄࠇࠆߩߢ‫ޔ‬࿾ၞ․᦭ߩ᳇୥ࠍ⴫⃻ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ߐޕ‬ࠄߦ‫੍ߩߘޔ‬᷹ߪ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⸘▚ߐࠇࠆߚ߼‫‛ޔ‬ℂ⊛ߦ৻⽾ᕈߩ޽ࠆᩰሶὐߩᖱႎߣߥࠆ‫ޔߒߛߚޕ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߪ⸘▚⽶⩄߇ᄢ߈޿‫ోޕ‬਎⇇ߦኻߒߡ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ
100 kmߩ㑆㓒ߢ⸘▚ߔࠆ႐วߣ‫ోޔ‬਎⇇ߩ1/100ߩ㕙Ⓧࠍᜬߟ࿾ၞߦኻߒߡ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ10 kmߩ㑆㓒ߢ⸘▚ߔࠆ႐วߣࠍᲧセߔࠆߣ‫ޔ‬ᓟ⠪ߪ೨⠪ߩ10୚ߩ⸘▚㊂ࠍᔅⷐߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࿾ၞ᳇୥੍᷹ߦ߅ߌࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߩ⹏ଔ
࿑㧝ߦജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ⸘▚ᚻ㗅ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬IPCC ߩ╙㧠ᰴႎ๔ᦠߦࠃࠆߣ‫ޔ‬዁᧪ߩ␠ળ⚻ᷣࠪ࠽࡝ࠝߩ߁ߜ‫⚻ޔ‬ᷣ㊀ⷞߢࠣࡠ࡯ࡃ࡝࠯࡯࡚ࠪࡦ߇ㅴࠎߛᧂ᧪␠ળ㧔SRES A1bࠪ࠽࡝ࠝ)ߢߪ‫ߩ⃿ోޔ‬ᐕᐔဋ᳇᷷߇ 20 ਎♿ᧃߣᲧセߒߡ 21 ਎♿ᧃߦ 2㨪4 K ⒟ᐲ਄᣹ߔࠆߣ
੍᷹ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫੍ޕ‬᷹୯ߦߺࠄࠇࠆ᳇᷷਄᣹㊂ߩ᏷ߪ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਇ⏕ታᕈߣ๭߫ࠇ‫ⶄޔ‬ᢙߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞㑆ߢ᷷ቶലᨐ᳇૕ߩỚᐲᄌൻߦኻߔࠆᔕ╵ߩ߫ࠄߟ߈ࠍ⴫ߒߡ߅ࠅ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᗵᐲߣ๭
߫ࠇߡ޿ࠆ1‫ޕ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩࠃ߁ߦ޽ࠆ㒢ࠄࠇߚ࿾ၞߩߺࠍജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߦࠃߞߡ⹦⚦ൻߔࠆ႐วߦ‫ߩߤޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߡណ↪ߔࠆ߆ߦࠃߞߡ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩ᳇୥੍᷹⚿ᨐ߇ᄢ߈ߊᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆߎߣߪኈᤃߦᗐ௝ߢ߈ࠆߛࠈ߁‫ޔߜࠊߥߔޕ‬᳇᷷਄᣹ߩᄢ߈޿᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ࠆ߶ߤ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩ᳇᷷਄᣹߽ᄢ߈ߊߥࠆ௑ะ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᱷᔨߥ߇ࠄ‫ࠇߎޔ‬߹ߢㇺ㆏ᐭ⋵࡟ࡌ࡞ߩᓇ㗀⹏ଔ⎇ⓥߦᔅⷐߥ࿾ၞ᳇୥੍᷹࠺࡯࠲ߪ‫৻ߊߏޔ‬ㇱߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ
↪޿ߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߦࠃߞߡ૞ᚑߐࠇߡ߈ߚ2‫ޔ߼ߚߩߘޕ‬᳇᷷ᄌൻ㊂ߪ᳇୥ᗵᐲ
ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᒝߊฃߌߡ޿ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬࿾ၞ᳇୥੍᷹ߢߪ␠ળ⚻ᷣࠪ࠽࡝ࠝߩᄙ᭽ᕈߣ਄ㅀߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߩ੍᷹ߩਇ⏕ታᕈߦട߃ߡ‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩਇ⏕ታᕈ߇ടࠊࠆߎߣߣߥࠆ‫ޔ߫߃଀ޕ‬઒ߦหߓ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߡ߽‫ޔ‬࿾ᒻߦኻߔࠆኻᵹᵴേߩᔕ╵߇㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⇣ߥࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ㒠᳓㊂ߦ㆑޿߇↢1଀߃߫‫ޔ‬‫ޟ‬ឃ಴ߒߚ᷷ቶലᨐ᳇૕߇㔕߿᡼኿ߩലᨐࠍ੺ߒߡߤߩ⒟ᐲ᳇᷷ߩ਄᣹ߦነਈߔࠆߩ߆‫ޠ‬‫߁޿ߣޔ‬໧㗴ߦኻߔࠆ╵߃߇᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⇣ߥߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޔߪࠇߎޕ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ᭴ᚑߔࠆ‛ℂᑼߦ฽߹ࠇࠆଥᢙ߿ቯᑼൻߩᣇᴺ߇ࡕ࠺࡞㑆ߢᓸᅱߦ⇣ߥࠆߎߣ߿‫ߣ࡞࠱ࡠࠕࠛޔ‬㔕ߩ㑐ଥߥߤᧂߛ‛ℂ⊛ߦቯ㊂ൻ߇࿎㔍ߥㆊ⒟߇᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߦ฽߹ࠇࠆߎߣ߇ේ࿃ߣߥߞߡ↢ߓࠆ‫ޕ‬2଀߃߫‫ޔ‬᳇⽎ᐡ߇౏㐿ߒߡ޿ࠆᣣᧄߩ᳇୥੍᷹ᖱႎߩᦨᣂ 㧔᳇⽎ᐡ, 2013㧕ߪ‫ޔ‬᳇⽎ᐡ߇㐿⊒ߒߚ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013࿑  ർᶏ㆏ߩ᳇୥੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߚ߼ߩᚻ㗅ߩᮨᑼ࿑‫ޕ‬ ߟߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞಴ജߘࠇߙࠇࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߡ‫ޔ‬ ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶ߞߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣࠍታᣉߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ߓߚࠅ‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡⓍ㔐ಽᏓߥߤߩዪ࿾⊛ߥ㒽㕙⁁ᘒ߇ᓸᅱߦ⇣ߥࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ᳇᷷ߩᭂ୯ߦ㆑޿߇↢ߓࠆน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆ‫ޔߦ߁ࠃߩߎޕ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩ዁᧪᳇୥࠺࡯࠲ࠍᚻߦߒߚߣ߈‫ޔ‬␠ળ⚻ᷣࠪ࠽࡝ࠝ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩਇ⏕ታᕈ߇฽߹ࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣߦ⇐ᗧߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᧄ⺖㗴ߢߪ‫ޔ‬࿑ 1 ߦ␜ߔㅢࠅ 3 ߟߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ 3 ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶↪ߒ‫ ⸘ޔ‬9 ㅢࠅߩജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣࠍታᣉߔࠆߎߣߢ‫ޔ‬ਇ⏕ታᕈࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚ࿾ၞ᳇୥੍᷹ᖱႎߩឭଏࠍ⋡ᜰߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߪ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇୥ౣ⃻ᕈࠍචಽ⠨ᘦߒ‫᧲ޔ‬੩ᄢቇߥߤߩ
MIROC3.2(hires)㧔એ㒠‫ޔ‬MIROC㧕‫⎇ࠢࡦ࡜ࡊࠬࠢ࠶ࡑ࡮࠷ࠗ࠼ޔ‬ⓥᚲߩ ECHAM5/MPI-OM㧔એ㒠‫ޔ‬MPI㧕‫☨߮ࠃ߅ޔ‬࿖ᄢ᳇⑼ቇ⎇ⓥᚲߩ CCSM3㧔એ㒠‫ޔ‬NCAR㧕ࠍ೑↪ߒߚ‫ߩࠄࠇߎޕ‬ⓨ㑆⸃௝ᐲߪ 100 km ೨ᓟߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬਄ㅀߩㅢࠅ‫ߩࠄࠇߎޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߪ⇣ߥࠆ᳇୥ᗵᐲࠍᜬߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޔߡߞ߇ߚߒޕ‬዁᧪ߩ․ቯߩᐕઍࠍኻ⽎ᦼ㑆ߣߔࠆߣ᳇୥ᗵᐲߩ㆑޿߇ർᶏ㆏ߩ᳇୥੍᷹⚿ᨐߦᒝߊ෻ᤋߐࠇߡߒ߹߁ߎߣߪᗐ௝ߦ㔍ߊߥ޿‫⃿ోޔߢߎߘޕ‬ᐕᐔဋ࿾਄᳇᷷߇ 1990 ᐕઍߦᲧߴ⚂ 2 K ਄᣹ߒߚᐕઍࠍߘࠇߙࠇߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߢቯ⟵ߒ‫ޔ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩኻ⽎ᦼ㑆ߣߒߚ3‫ߩߎޕ‬ᣇᴺߦࠃࠅ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਇ⏕ታᕈߩ߁ߜ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ᗵᐲߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߣ✚ⷰ႐ߩ᳇࿶㈩⟎ߩ㆑޿ߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߣࠍಽ㔌ߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߣߥࠅ‫ߪߢߎߎޔ‬ᓟ⠪ߩߺࠍ⹏ଔߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߪ‫ޔ‬᳇⽎ᐡߩ JMA/MRI NHM㧔એਅ‫ޔ‬JMA; Saito et al., 2006㧕‫☨ޔ‬࿖ࠬࠢ࡝ࡊࠬᶏᵗ⎇ⓥᚲߩ RSM㧔Juang and Kanamitsu, 1994㧕‫ޔ‬෸߮☨࿖ࠍਛᔃߦ㐿⊒ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ WRF-ARW㧔એਅ‫ޔ‬WRF; Skamarock et al., 2008㧕ߩ 3 ߟࠍ૶↪ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫▚⸘ߩࠇߙࠇߘޕ‬㗔ၞߪർᶏ㆏ోၞࠍ฽ߺ‫⸃ޔ‬௝ᐲߪ 10 km ߦ⛔৻ߒߚ‫ޕ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߪ‫ޔ‬዁᧪੍᷹㧔10 ᐕ㧕ߣ⃻࿷ߩ᳇୥ౣ⃻㧔10 ᐕ㧕ࠍ࿑㧝ߦ␜ߒߚ 9 ㅢࠅߩࡕ࠺࡞ߩ⚵ߺวࠊߖߦኻߒߡⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬߹ߚ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߔࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߣߪ೎ߦ‫ޔ‬᳇⽎ᐡౣ⸃ᨆ࠺࡯࠲㧔JRA25; Onogi et al., 2007㧕ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦ߽ࠣታᣉߒߚ‫ޕ‬ᰴ▵ߢߪ‫ޔ‬ㆊ෰ߩ᳇⽎᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩ♖ᐲᬌ⸽ߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴࠆ‫ޕ‬3ౕ૕⊛ߦߪ‫ޔ‬MIROC ߢߪ 2050 ᐕઍ‫ޔ‬MPI ߢߪ 2060 ᐕઍ‫ ߮ࠃ߅ޔ‬NCAR ߢߪ 2080 ᐕઍߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩࡃࠗࠕࠬ⹏ଔ

ߎߎߢߪ‫ޔ‬᳇⽎ᐡౣ⸃ᨆ࠺࡯࠲ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߡ㧟ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣࠍⴕ޿‫ޔ‬ߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍㆊ෰ߩ᷹ⷰ࠺ ࡯ ࠲ 㧔 1984 ᐕ ߆ ࠄ2000 ᐕ߹ߢߩ 17 ᐕಽ㧕ߣᲧセߒߚ‫ⷰޕ‬᷹࠺࡯࠲ߣߒߡࠕࡔ࠳ࠬߩ᳇
᷷߅ࠃ߮ APHRO-JP ߩ
㒠᳓㊂㧔Kamiguchi et al.,2010㧕ࠍ૶↪ߒߚ‫ޕ‬࿑㧞ߦᣣᧄᶏ஥‫ޔ‬ᄥᐔᵗ஥‫ࠢ࠷࡯ࡎࠝޔ‬ᶏ஥ߩ 3࿑  㧔Ꮐ㧕ᣣᧄᶏ஥‫ޔ‬ᄥᐔᵗ஥‫ࠢ࠷࡯ࡎࠝ߮ࠃ߅ޔ‬ᶏ஥ߦ߅ߌࠆ࿾਄᳇᷷ߩ᳇୥୯ߩቄ▵ᄌൻ‫ޕ‬㤥ߪࠕࡔ࠳ࠬߦࠃࠆ᷹ⷰ‫߮ࠃ߅ޔ✛ޔ⿒ޔ‬㕍ߪߘࠇߙࠇ㗔ၞ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ 45/‫ޔ‬94(‫ ߮ࠃ߅ޔ‬,/# ࠍ⴫ߔ‫࡜ࠛޕ‬࡯ࡃ࡯ߪ⚻ᐕᄌേߩᮡḰ஍Ꮕࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬㧔ฝ㧕࿾਄᳇᷷ߩ᷹ⷰ୯㧔ᮮゲ‫͠ޔ‬㧕ߣ⺋Ꮕ㧔❑ゲ㧕ߩ㑐ଥ߅ࠃ߮࿁Ꮻ⋥✢‫ޕ‬࿾ၞߦಽߌߚ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩ᳇୥୯ߩቄ▵ᄌൻࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬㧟ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞߇ർᶏ㆏ߩ 3 ࿾ၞߩᐔဋ⊛ߥቄ▵ᄌൻࠍචಽߥ♖ᐲߢౣ⃻ߢ߈ࠆߎߣ߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬ᐕ‫ޘ‬ᄌേߩᝄ᏷߽ߔߴߡߩ᦬‫ޔ‬࿾ၞߢ߅߅߻ߨ᷹ⷰߣ৻⥌ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ⷰޕ‬᷹୯ߦኻߔࠆ᳇᷷ߩ⺋Ꮕߪᣣᧄᶏ஥ߢߤߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞߽ૐ᷷ࡃࠗࠕࠬ߇ߺࠄࠇߚ‫ޕ‬ᥦ୥ᦼߦߪ‫ ߽࡞࠺ࡕߩߤޔ‬2K ⒟ᐲߩૐ᷷ࡃࠗ
ࠕࠬߢ޽ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬ኙ୥ᦼߦߪ JMA ߢߪ⚂
1K‫ޔ‬RSM ߣ WRF ߢߪ 2㨪4K ⒟ᐲߩૐ᷷ࡃࠗࠕࠬ߇޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬᳇᷷ߩ⛘ኻ୯ߦኻߔࠆࡃࠗࠕࠬߩᄢዊ㑐ଥ߇㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⇣ߥࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᄥᐔᵗ࿑  ౣ⸃ᨆ࠺࡯࠲ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߚജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ஥߅ࠃ߮ࠝࡎ࡯࠷ࠢᶏ஥ߢ߽‫ޔ‬ኙ୥ᦼ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߢᓧࠄࠇߚ  ᦬㧔Ꮐ㧕߅ࠃ߮  ᦬㧔ฝ㧕ߦ߅޿ߡ JMA ߢߪ㜞᷷ࡃࠗࠕࠬ‫ޔ‬
WRFߦ߅ߌࠆ᦬ᐔဋᣣ㒠᳓㊂ߩ᳇୥୯ OOFC[ ‫ޕ‬਄Ბߪૐ᷷ࡃࠗࠕࠬߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫ޕ‬

߆ࠄ #2*41,2㧔᷹ⷰ㧕‫ޔ‬45/‫ޔ‬94(‫ޔ‬,/# ߩ㗅‫ޕ‬ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013ߎߩࠃ߁ߦ᳇᷷ߩ⛘ኻ୯ߦᔕߓߡ⺋Ꮕ߇ᄌൻߔࠆ႐วߦߪ‫․ߩࠄࠇߎޔ‬ᕈࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚࡃࠗࠕࠬ⵬ᱜᣇᴺࠍណ↪ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠅ‫߇ࠇߘޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߩૐᷫߦߟߥ߇ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬3 ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃࠆ⺋Ꮕߪኙ୥ᦼߦᦨᄢߣߥࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬ૐ᷷ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ࿾਄᳇᷷ߩ⺋Ꮕⷐ࿃ߦߟ޿ߡߐࠄߥࠆ⸃ᨆ߇ᔅⷐߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬3ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ታ㛎ߦࠃߞߡᓧࠄࠇߚ㒠᳓㊂ߩಽᏓࠍ࿑㧟ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬1᦬ߩ㒠᳓ߪJMAߢߪ㒠᳓㊂ߩᭂᄢ୯߇᭎ߨ᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲ߣ৻⥌ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬WRFߣRSMߢߪ8 mm/dayߩ࿾ၞ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ
ߎߣ߆ࠄ߿߿ㆊᄢ௑ะߢ޽ࠆ‫ߦ․ޕ‬WRFߢߪ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏⷏ጯߩᐢ޿▸࿐ߢ㒠᳓㊂߇ㆊᄢߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߚߛߒ‫ޔ‬࿕૕㒠᳓ߦኻߔࠆ㔎㊂⸘ߩ᝝ᝒ₸ߪ‫ޔ‬㔐Ყ₸ߩૐ޿ᣂẟߦ߅޿ߡ߽0.7㨪0.8⒟ᐲߢ޽
ࠆߎߣ߇⍮ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼‫ޔ‬ታ㓙ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߪAPHRO-JPߦࠃࠆ࠺࡯࠲ࠃࠅ߽߆ߥࠅᄙ޿ߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ᄥᐔᵗ஥ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߪ‫ޔ‬JMAߢ᷹ⷰߦᲧߴߡ߿߿ㆊᄢߢ޽ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬RSMߣWRFߢߪ᷹ⷰߣ߶߷ห⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔߒߛߚޕ‬ᣣ㜞ጊ⣂ߢߪWRFߣJMAߩ㒠᳓㊂߇᷹ⷰߩ2୚⒟ᐲߣߥߞߡ
޿ࠆ࿾ၞ߇ߺࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬
7 ᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߪቶ⯗߆ࠄ⧴ዊ’ߦ߆ߌߡߩࠛ࡝ࠕߣᣣ㜞ጊ⣂ߢᄙ޿ߎߣ߇․ᓽߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬․ᓽߪ 3 ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߢ᭎ߨౣ⃻ߢ߈ߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߃ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬౻ቄ㒠᳓㊂ߣ⇣ߥࠅߤߩࡕ࠺࡞ߢ߽᷹ⷰߦᲧߴࠆߣᭂᄢ୯߇ㆊᄢߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ⓨ㑆ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߪ JMA ߇ᦨ߽᷹ⷰߦ㘃ૃߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬WRF
ߪᣣᧄᶏᴪጯ߿ᄢ㔐ጊߢ߽ᄙ㊂ߩ㒠᳓߇޽ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬ጊጪ࿾㧔޽ࠆ޿ߪᢳ㕙ㄭற㧕ߩ㒠᳓ߩ⺋Ꮕ߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߇ផኤߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬RSM ߪጊጪߣૐ࿾ߦኻᔕߒߚ㒠᳓ಽᏓ߇ർᶏ㆏ోၞߢ߿߿⹶ᒛߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄‫ޔ‬㐳ᦼᐔဋߒߚ᳇᷷ߣ㒠᳓㊂࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡ‫ޔ‬3ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩౣ⃻ᕈ⹏ଔࠍⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬᳇᷷ߩ⛘ኻ୯ߦଐሽߒߚ᳇᷷ࡃࠗࠕࠬ߇⏕⹺ߢ߈‫ޔ‬዁᧪੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁㓙ߩࡃࠗࠕࠬ⵬ᱜߦ᦭↪ߥ⺋Ꮕ․ᕈᖱႎ߇ᓧࠄࠇߚ‫ޕ‬㒠᳓㊂ߪో⥸⊛ߦㆊᄢ௑ะ߇⋡┙ߟ߽ߩߩ‫ⷰࠬ࠳ࡔࠕޔ‬᷹࿾ὐߦ㒢ࠇ߫‫ޔ‬ᓥ᧪ߩജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ⎇ⓥߢ⷗Ⓧ߽ࠄࠇߚ⺋Ꮕߣ߶߷ห⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬ㆊ෰᳇୥ߩౣ⃻ᕈߪචಽ㜞޿ߣ⸒߃ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ੍᷹ᧄ▵ߢߪ‫ ╙ޔ‬2 ▵ߢㅀߴߚᚻ㗅ߢⴕࠊࠇߚ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ੍᷹ߩ⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߔ‫ޔߒߛߚޕ‬RSM ߦࠃࠆ⸘▚⚿ᨐߪ࠺࡯࠲ᄌ឵╬ߩㇺวߢ߹ߛ⸃ᨆߢ߈ߥ޿⁁ᴫߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔߪߢߎߎޕ‬WRF ߅ࠃ߮ JMAߦࠃࠆ⚿ᨐߩ᭎⇛ࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ 㒠᳓㊂࿑㧠ߪ⃻࿷ߦኻߔࠆ዁᧪ߩᄐቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻ₸ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᄙዋߩ߫ࠄߟ߈ߪ⹺߼ࠄࠇࠆ߽ߩߩ‫ޔ‬ቯᕈ⊛ߦ߽ቯ㊂⊛ߦ߽஥㕙Ⴚ⇇᧦ઙ㧔ߔߥࠊߜ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞㧕߇ᄐቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻࠍ߅߅ࠃߘ೙
ᓮߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޔ߫߃଀ޕ‬MIROC ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߔࠇ߫‫ޔ‬WRF ߢ޽ߞߡ߽ JMA ߢ޽ߞߡ߽㒠᳓㊂
ߪ 40 %એ਄Ⴧടߔࠆߎߣࠍ੍᷹ߒߡ޿ࠆߒ‫ޔ‬MPI ߿ NCAR ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߔࠇ߫‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩㆬᛯߦଐࠄߕ㗼⪺ߥ㒠᳓ߩჇᄢߪߺࠄࠇߥ޿‫ ╙ޕ‬2 ▵ߢㅀߴߚㅢࠅ‫⺖ᧄޔ‬㗴ߦ߅޿ߡ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߪ‫ޔ‬᳇࿶㈩⟎ߩ㆑޿ࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬ᄐቄߢ޽ࠇ߫Ⲍᄱ᪢㔎 ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013߇᣿⍎ߦߥࠆ߆‫޿ࠆ޽ޔ‬ߪዊ═ේ㜞᳇࿶ߩ൓ജ߇ᒝ߹ࠆ߆ߦࠃߞߡ‫ޔ‬㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻ₸߇ᄢ߈ߊ⇣ߥࠆߎߣߣ㑐ଥߒߡ޿ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧔࿑⇛㧕‫ޕ‬࿑㧠ߦ␜ߒߚ౻ቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻ₸ߢߪ‫੍ߩߤޔ‬᷹⚿ᨐ߽᭎ߨ20 %⒟ᐲߩჇടࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬᳇᷷߇㜞ߊߥࠆߦߟࠇߡᄢ᳇ߦ฽ߺ߁ࠆ᳓⫳᳇㊂ߪᄙߊߥࠆߚ߼‫ޔ‬หߓ᳇࿶㈩⟎ߢ޽ࠇ᷷߫ᥦൻߒߚ᳇୥ߩᣇ߇น㒠᳓㊂߇ᄢ߈ߊ‫ޔ‬㒠᳓㊂߽Ⴧടߔ࿑   ߟߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞㧔Ꮐ߆ࠄ /+41%‫ޔ‬/2+‫ޔ‬0%#4㧕ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߦߒࠆ௑ะ߇޽ࠆ‫ޔߒߛߚޕ‬᷷ߚ  ߟߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞㧔਄߇ 94(‫ޔ‬ਅ߇ ,/#㧕ߦࠃࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ᥦൻᤨߦ⷏㜞᧲ૐߩ᳇࿶㈩ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߢᓧࠄࠇߚ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻ㧔዁᧪᳇୥ߩ⃻࿷᳇୥⟎ߩᒙൻࠍ੍᷹ߔࠆ᳇୥ࡕߦኻߔࠆᲧ㧕‫ޕ‬਄ඨಽߪᄐቄ㧔㨪 ᦬㧕‫ޔ‬ਅඨಽߪ౻ቄ㧔࠺࡞߽޽ࠆߚ߼‫ߩߎޔ‬ᒙൻ᦬㨪 ᦬㧕‫ޕ‬ߩ⒟ᐲߦࠃߞߡߪᣣᧄᶏ஥
ߩ㒠᳓ߩჇಽߪ⋧Ვߐࠇࠆน⢻ᕈ߽޽ࠆ‫ߩߤޔߚ߹ޕ‬੍᷹ߦ߽౒ㅢߒߡ޿ࠆὐߪ‫ޔ‬ᄥᐔᵗ஥ߣߊߦᣣ㜞࿾ᣇߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩჇടߢ޽ࠆ‫ࠇߎޕ‬ߪ⷏㜞᧲ૐߩ౻ဳߩ᳇࿶㈩⟎ߩᒙൻߦ઻ߞߡධጯૐ᳇
࿶߇Ⴧടߔࠆߎߣ㧔Inatsu
and Kimoto, 2005㧕ߣ㑐ଥߒߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߣផ᷹ߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬৻ᣇ‫ࠢ࠷࡯ࡎࠝޔ‬ᶏ஥ߢߪ‫ޔ‬
NCARએᄖߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ
૶↪ߒߚ੍᷹ߢ㒠᳓ߩᓸᷫ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޔߪߦ⊛⥸ోޕ‬ᄐቄߣห᭽ߦ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞߇࿑  ࿑㧠ߣหߓ‫ޔߒߛߚޕ‬࿾਄᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ - ‫ޕ‬਄ඨಽߪᄐቄ㧔㨪 ᦬㧕‫ޔ‬ਅඨಽߪ౻ቄ㧔 ᦬㨪 ᦬㧕‫ޕ‬౻ቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻ௑ะࠍ߅ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013߅ࠃߘ೙ᓮߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫ޕ‬ ᳇᷷࿑㧡ߪᄐቄ߅ࠃ߮౻ቄߦ߅ߌࠆ࿾਄᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ㊂ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᄐቄߩ࿾਄᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ㊂ߪో⃿ᐕᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ㊂㧔2 K㧕ߣห⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ౝߢߪ߶߷᳓ᐔ৻᭽ߢ޽ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ‫ޔ‬౻ቄߦ߅ߌࠆ࿾਄᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ㊂ߪో⃿ᐕᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩᄌൻ㊂ࠃࠅᄢ߈ߊ3㨪4 Kߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔߪࠇߎޕ‬᳇᷷਄᣹ߦࠃߞߡⲢ㔐߇ଦㅴߐࠇ‫ޔ‬㔺಴ߒߚ࿾㕙ߢࠃࠅᄙߊߩᣣ኿ࠍๆ෼ߒ‫ߦࠄߐޔ‬᳇᷷߇਄᣹ߔࠆߣ޿߁ࠕࠗࠬ࡮ࠕ࡞ࡌ࠼࡮ࡈࠖ࡯࠼ࡃ࠶ࠢߣ๭߫ࠇࠆᯏ᭴߇ዪ࿾⊛ߦ߽௛ߊߚ߼ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ
㧔Matsumura and Sato, 2011㧕‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬౻ቄߩ᳇᷷ᄌൻߢߪࠝࡎ࡯࠷ࠢᶏ਄߇․ᓽ⊛ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬WRF
ߩ੍᷹ߪߤࠇ߽5 K⿥ߩ᣹᷷ߢ޽ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬JMAߩ੍᷹ߪߤࠇ߽4 K⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬WRFߩ੍᷹ߦߪ᣹᷷ߦࠃࠆᵹ᳖ߩᶖᄬߩലᨐࠍ⠨ᘦߒߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ‫ޔ‬JMAߩ੍᷹ߦߪ᣹᷷ߦࠃߞߡ߽ᵹ
᳖ߪ⃻࿷ߣᄌࠊࠄߥ޿ߣ઒ቯߒߡ޿ࠆߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ࠢ࠷࡯ࡎࠝޕ‬ᶏ਄ߩ᳇᷷ߪࠝࡎ࡯࠷ࠢᶏ஥ߩ
᳇᷷਄᣹㊂ߩ੍᷹ߦ߽ᄢ߈ߊᓇ㗀ߔࠆ߇‫ޔ‬ᵹ᳖ߩേᘒ੍᷹ߪᭂ߼ߡ㔍ߒ޿໧㗴ߢ޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩᶏ㕙Ⴚ⇇᧦ઙߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆਇ⏕ታᕈߣߒߡ೎ㅜ⎇ⓥߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ వㅴ⊛ߥ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡞ᚻᴺߩ㐿⊒ᧄ⺖㗴ߢߪ‫ޔ‬೨▵߹ߢߦ⚫੺ߒߚ᳇୥੍᷹⎇ⓥߛߌߢߥߊ‫ޔ‬᳇୥੍᷹ᖱႎߩᡷༀߦ⽸₂ߔࠆߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߦᣂߒ޿࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡞ᚻᴺߩ㐿⊒߿᷹ⷰ⎇ⓥࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޔ▵ᧄޕ‬ᰴ▵ߢߘࠇࠄࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆ߇‫⚕ޔ‬㕙ߩ೙⚂ߩߚ߼‫ߪߢߎߎޔ‬᭎ⷐߩߺࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬࿯࿾೑↪ᄌൻߦࠃࠆർᶏ㆏ߩ࿾ၞ᳇୥߳ߩᓇ㗀ർᶏ㆏ߪ᣿ᴦೋᦼએ㒠‫ᧄޔ‬Ꮊ߆ࠄߩ㐿ᜏ᳃ߦࠃߞߡᄢⷙᮨߥㄘ࿾㐿ნ߇ⴕࠊࠇ‫ޔ‬㗼⪺ߥ࿯࿾೑↪ߩᄌൻ߇޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬࿾ၞ᳇୥ߦኻߔࠆ࿯࿾೑↪ߩᄌൻߩᓇ㗀ࠍ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ߚᗵᐲታ㛎ߦࠃߞߡ⺞ߴߚ‫⚿ߩߘޕ‬ᨐ‫ోޔ‬㆏ࠍᐔဋߔࠆߣ࿯࿾೑↪ᄌൻߩᓇ㗀ߪήⷞߢ߈ࠆ߶ߤዊߐ޿߽ߩߩ‫⃻ޔ‬࿷ߩㇺᏒၞߢߪ࿯࿾೑↪ᄌൻߦࠃߞߡ㗼⪺ߥ᳇᷷਄᣹߇↢ߓߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߿‫ޔ‬ㄘ࿾ൻߐࠇߚ࿾ၞߢߪ㒠᳓㊂ࠍࠊߕ߆ߦᷫዋߐߖࠆലᨐ߇޽ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ㧔Sato and Sasaki, 2011㧕‫ޕ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߣ⛔⸘⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩⲢวജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߦ᳞߼ࠄࠇࠆ⤘ᄢߥ⸘▚ࠦࠬ࠻ࠍૐᷫߔࠆߚ߼ߩᚻᴺ㧔ࠨࡦࡊ࡝ࡦࠣ࡮࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ㧧Kuno and Inatsu, 2013㧕ࠍ㐿⊒ߒߚ‫⇣․ߪࠇߎޕ‬୯ಽ⸃⸃ᨆࠍ೑↪
ߒߡ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩ౻ቄ㒠᳓ߣ㜞޿⋧㑐ࠍ߽ߟ਄ⓨߩ㜞ᐲ႐ࠍ᳞߼‫ޔ‬ജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ⸘▚ኻ⽎ᐕߩ᛽಴ߦ೑↪ߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ᚻᴺߢ᛽಴ߒߚࠊߕ߆ 4 ᐕߦኻߔࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߪ‫߼੍ޔ‬ታᣉߒߡ߅޿ߚ 30 ᐕߦኻߔࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߣ߶߷ห╬ߩ⛔⸘୯ࠍ␜ߔߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫⋡ޕ‬ਅ‫ߩࠣࡦ࡝࡯ࠤࠬࡦ࠙࠳࡮ࠣࡦ࡝ࡊࡦࠨޔ‬ℂ⺰⊛ߥ᦭ലᕈࠍᬌ⸽ߒߡ߅ࠅ‫߫ࠇߔ┙⏕߇ࠇߘޔ‬છᗧߩ㗔ၞߦኻߒߡജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ⸘▚⽶⩄ࠍૐᷫߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߣߥࠆߣᦼᓙߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬  ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013╬ߩ࠺࡯࠲㧔Miyazaki and Yamada, 2011㧕ߪ਄ㅀߩ㒽㕙ࡕ࠺࡞ߩ㐿⊒ߦ߽ᓎ┙ߡࠆ੍ቯߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬㔐᳖᳇⽎᷹ⷰ
2012/13 ᐕߩ౻ቄߦ‫ᧅޔ‬ᏻߢ᷹ⷰผ਄ᦨ߽ㆃ޿ೋ㔐ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚߎߣߪ⸥ᙘߦᣂߒ޿߇‫ߩߘޔ‬ᓟߦૐ᳇࿶߇ർᶏ㆏ߦធㄭ࡮ㅢㆊߔࠆ੐଀߇ᄙߊ‫ޔ‬ᄙߊߩ࿾ὐߢᕆỗߦⓍ㔐ᷓ߇Ⴧടߒߚ‫ߎޕ‬ߩࠃ߁ߦ․⇣ߥ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩߥ߆‫ࡓࡑ࠻ޔ‬ጊߩᢳ㕙ߢ 12 ᦬߆ࠄ 2 ᦬ߦ߆ߌߡᄙߊߩࠢ࡜࠶ࠢ㧔ᢳ㕙਄ߩ㔐㕙ߩഀࠇ⋡㧕߇⊒↢ߒߚ‫ߩߎޕ‬ᢳ㕙ߪࠨࠨߢⷒࠊࠇߡ߅ࠅ‫ޔ‬ᐔᐕߢ޽ࠇ߫‫⋥߇ࠨࠨޔ‬┙ߒߚ⁁ᘒߩ߹߹ᓢ‫ߦޘ‬Ⓧ㔐ᷓ߇Ⴧടߒ‫߇ࠨࠨޔ‬Ⓧ㔐ߦೝߐߞߚ⁁ᘒߦߥࠆ‫ޔߒ߆ߒޕ‬Ⓧ㔐ೋᦼߩᕆỗߥḨ㔐ߦࠃࠅࠨࠨߩୟફ߇↢ߓ‫ޔ‬Ⓧ㔐ߩᐩ㕙ߢࠨࠨ߇ୟࠇߚ⁁ᘒߣߥߞߡ޿ߚ‫ࠇߎޕ‬ߦࠃߞߡ‫ޔ‬㔐㕙ਅㇱߩ៺ᡂᛶ᛫߇ዊߐߊߥࠅࠢ࡜࠶ࠢߩ᜛ᄢߦߟߥ߇ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ࠃ߁ߦ‫ޔ‬ᢳ㕙ߦ߅ߌࠆⓍ㔐ߩ቟ቯᕈࠍ⠨ኤߔࠆ㓙ߦ‫ޔ‬ᢳ㕙௑ᢳ߿Ⓧ㔐ኒᐲ࡮⎬ᐲߩࡊࡠࡈࠔࠗ࡞ߛߌߢߥߊ‫ޔ‬ᐩ㕙ߩ࿯࿾ⵍⷒ㧔ᬀ↢㧕ߩ⁁ᘒ߇ᭂ߼ߡ㊀ⷐߣߥࠆࠤ࡯ࠬ߇޽ࠆߎߣ߇᷹ⷰߦࠃߞߡ⏕⹺ߐࠇߚ㧔ਛ᧛߶߆, 2013㧕‫ޕ‬㆏᧲ߦ߅ߌࠆ㔵ᣣᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌൻ㊖〝࿾ᣇ᳇⽎บߦ߅޿ߡ᷹ⷰߐࠇߚ 1931 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2010 ᐕ߹ߢߩᄐቄ㔵ᣣᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌൻ௑ะࠍ⺞ߴߚߣߎࠈ‫ޔ‬㊖〝ߩ㔵ᣣᢙߪㆊ෰ 80 ᐕ㑆ߢ᦭ᗧߦᷫዋߒߡ޿ߚ‫ ߦ․ޕ‬1970 ᐕઍᓟඨએ㒠‫ޔ‬㔵ᣣᢙ߇ዋߥ޿ᐕ߇Ⴧട௑ะߦ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬㔵ᣣᢙ߇ዋߥ޿ᐕߦߪ‫ޔ‬ᄥᐔᵗ㜞᳇࿶ߩർ߹ߚߪ⷏߳ߩ
ᒛࠅ಴ߒߩᒙൻߣࠝࡎ࡯࠷ࠢᶏ㜞᳇࿶ߩ⊒㆐ߦ઻ߞߡ‫ޔ‬ർᶏ㆏ධ᧲ㇱߦ೔㆐ߔࠆධ߆ࠄߩᥦḨ⒖ᵹ߇ᛥ೙ߐࠇߡ޿ߚ‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬2000 ᐕ⑺ߩ㊖〝࿾ᣇ᳇⽎บߩ⒖ォߦࠃߞߡㄭᐕߩ㔵ᣣᢙ߇ᷫዋ
ߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧔Sugimoto et al., 2013㧕‫ޕ‬ ߹ߣ߼ߣᵈᗧർᶏ㆏ࠍኻ⽎ߣߔࠆ᳇୥ᄌേㆡᔕ╷╷ቯߩߚ߼‫ⶄޔ‬ᢙߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍႺ⇇᧦ઙߣߒߚⶄᢙߩ㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃࠆജቇ⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣࠍታᣉߒߚ‫ࠅࠃߦࠇߎޕ‬᳇᷷߿㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻࠍ␠ળ⚻ᷣࠪ࠽࡝ࠝ‫ޔ‬᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞‫߮ࠃ߅ޔ‬㗔ၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩਇ⏕ታᕈࠍ฽ࠎߛ⏕₸ᖱႎߣߒߡឭଏߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߣߥࠅߟߟ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᄐቄߩ㒠᳓ߢߪ‫Ⲍޔ‬ᄱ᪢㔎ဳ߆ዊ═ේ㜞᳇࿶ߩᒛࠅ಴ߒဳ߆ߦࠃߞߡᄌൻ௑ะ߇ᄢ߈ߊ⇣ߥࠅ‫ޔ‬౻ቄߩࠝࡎ࡯࠷ࠢᶏ஥ߢߪᵹ᳖ߩേᘒ߇᳇᷷ߩ੍᷹ߦ߫ࠄߟ߈ࠍਈ߃ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬ฦࡕ࠺࡞㑆ߩ߫ࠄߟ߈߇ዊߐ޿੍᷹ߪା㗬ᕈ߇㜞޿ߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߽ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޔ߫߃଀ޕ‬౻ቄߩ㒠᳓ߪߤߩ੍᷹ߢ߽ 10㨪30 %ߩჇട߇੍᷹ߐࠇߡ޿ߚ‫ޕ‬ᦨᓟߦᧄⓂߢ⠨ᘦߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚਇ⏕ታᕈߦߟ޿ߡ㧞ὐ⵬⿷ߒߚ޿‫⚻ߪߟ৻ޕ‬චᐕᄌേߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬
SRES ࠪ࠽࡝ࠝߢ 100 ᐕవߩ੍᷹ࠍⴕ߃߫‫ޔ‬㐳๟ᦼߩ⥄ὼᄌേߦᲧߴߡ᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆ᳇᷷਄᣹ߩࠪࠣ࠽࡞߇ථ⿧ߔࠆ‫ޔߒ߆ߒޕ‬ะߎ߁ 20 ᐕవߩ੍᷹ߦ⟎߈឵߃ࠆߣ‫ޔ‬᳇᷷਄᣹ߩࠪࠣ࠽࡞
ߪ 5 ಽߩ㧝⒟ᐲߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ౕޕ‬૕⊛ߦߪ 100 ᐕᓟߦ 3 K ߩ਄᣹ߥࠄ߫‫ޔ‬20 ᐕᓟߪ
0.6 K ߩ਄᣹ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬ⅣᄥᐔᵗߩᶏᵗᓴⅣߦ઻߁⚻චᐕᄌേ㧔ߔߥࠊߜ⥄ὼᄌേ‫ޔ‬PDOߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬㧕ߩᝄ᏷ߣห⒟ᐲߣߥࠆ‫ ߼ߚߩߎޕ‬PDO ߩലᨐߦࠃࠅ⍴ᦼ⊛ߦߪ᳇᷷߇ૐਅߔࠆ ർᶏ㆏ߩㄘᬺ᳇⽎ ╙ 65 ภ 2013ࠃ߁ߥน⢻ᕈุ߽߼ߥ޿‫ޔߦߊߣޕ‬ർᶏ㆏ߩ᳇୥ߦߪ PDO ߇ᄢ߈ߥᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬PDO ߩ੍᷹ߪଐὼߣߒߡ࿎㔍ߢ޽ࠆ‫⺖ᧄޕ‬㗴ߢߪ⃻࿷࡮዁᧪᳇୥ߣ߽ߦ 10 ᐕಽߒ߆⸘▚ߒߡ޿ߥ޿ߚ߼‫ߥ߁ࠃߩߎޔ‬චᐕએ਄ߩ๟ᦼߩᄌേࠍ⠨ᘦߢ߈ߥ޿ὐߦᵈᗧߐࠇߚ޿‫ޕ‬߽߁৻ߟߪบ㘑ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ㄭᐕߩ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߪ‫⸃ޔ‬௝ᐲ߇㜞ߊߥߞߡ߈ߚߚ߼‫ޟޔ‬บ㘑‫ߺߣޠ‬ߥߖࠆ᷵ᡓੂࠍ⴫⃻ߢ߈ࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߡ߈ߚ߇‫ޔ‬ᷓ޿ૐ࿶ㇱߩౣ⃻ߪଐὼߣߒߡ࿎㔍ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬߹ߚ‫ޔ‬ᄐቄ߆ࠄ⑺ቄߦ߅ߌࠆᣣᧄ๟ㄝߩ᳇࿶㈩⟎ࠍᱜߒߊ੍᷹ߢ߈ߥߌࠇ߫‫ޔ‬บ㘑ߩ⚻〝ࠍ੍᷹ߔࠆߎߣߪߢ߈ߥ޿‫ޕ‬ർᶏ㆏ߦ߅޿ߡบ㘑ߩធㄭߪ߹ࠇߥ⃻⽎ߢ޽ࠅ‫ޔ‬઒ߦ᳇୥ࡕ࠺࡞ߢบ㘑ࠍౣ⃻ߢ߈ߚߣߒߡ߽‫ޔ‬᷷ᥦൻߦࠃߞߡบ㘑߇ߤߩࠃ߁ߦᄌൻߔࠆߩ߆ࠍቯ㊂ߔࠆߩߪ㔍ߒ޿‫ޕ‬ㆊ෰ߦᄢ߈ߥᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߒߚ᳇⽎ࠗࡌࡦ࠻ߩ⊒↢⏕₸߇‫ੱޔ‬㑆ᵴേߦࠃߞߡߤߩ⒟ᐲᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆߩ߆ࠍቯ㊂⊛ߦ⺞ߴࠆࠗࡌࡦ࠻࡮ࠕ࠻࡝ࡆࡘ࡯࡚ࠪࡦߣ๭߫ࠇࠆᚻᴺ߇ឭ᩺ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬บ㘑ߦ㒢ࠄߕ‫ޔ‬ૐ㗫ᐲߢᄢ߈ߥⵍኂࠍ߽ߚࠄߔ⃻⽎ߪ‫․ߦߌߛࠇߘޔ‬ൻߒߚ⎇ⓥࠍ೎୘ߦⴕ߁ᔅⷐ߇޽ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬⻢ ㄉ ᧄⓂߪᢥㇱ⑼ቇ⋭࡮᳇୥ᄌേㆡᔕផㅴࡊࡠࠣ࡜ࡓߩ⺖㗴‫ޟ‬ർᶏ㆏ࠍኻ⽎ߣߔࠆ✚ว⊛࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߩ㐿⊒ߣㆡᔕ‫ߢޠ‬ታᣉߒߚౝኈߢ޽ࠆ‫⻢ߡߒ⸥ߦߎߎޕ‬ᗧࠍ⴫ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ᒁ↪ᢥ₂Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y. and Tanaka, K., 2008:
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