An International Comparison of Hope and Happiness
Between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States

ISS Discussion Paper Series
F-175
June 2015

Yuji Genda
genda@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Institute of Social Science
The University of Tokyo

Abstract
Using the method of back translation, comparative surveys were conducted to examine the differences
and similarities in hope and happiness between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We
find that there is a substantial difference in levels of hope between them; most people express hopesof realizing something in future in the UK and the US, but only a half of the population has feasible
hopes in Japan. Looking at the similarities, the issue of family is consistently the most important
content of hope in all three countries. The empirical estimations also reveal that marriage, jobs, health,friends, trust, and patriotism have similar effects on hope and happiness across the three countries.
Lacks of friends, of experiences of trust, and of religious belief, result in less hope in Japan. Ordeals
tend to reduce the degree of happiness, but at the same time, such difficulties encourage people to havehope that forward action will bring about better conditions. This counter trend to the impact onhappiness implies that the positive setback effect operates on hope across the three countries studied.

Key words: hope; happiness; setback; back translation; Adam Smith; Japan.
JEL: I31; Y80; Z13

1

1.

Introduction
Especially since the 2000s, insightful economic studies with respect to “happiness” have been

accumulating in the literature; examples include Frey and Stutzer (2002), Layard (2005), Easterlin(2010), and Graham (2011). In contrast, there are notably fewer studies that examine the relationshipbetween the economy and “hope.” Economic research treats the prediction of uncertain futures ingeneral as “expectations” and thereby avoids creating a precise theory of hope. In analyzing economic
behavior based on such expectations for the future, economic models represent the dynamics asprobabilistic choices based on estimated risk levels, rather than actions undertaken with hope in theface of immeasurable uncertainties. 1
However, there are some exceptionally important works that deal with the concept of hope ineconomics. Adam Smith refers to the role of hope in economic life in The Wealth of Nations (1776).
Smith suggests that a person is animated by the hope of a better life on average—what he calls “thecomfortable hope of bettering his condition, and of ending his days perhaps in ease and plenty” (Smith[1776] 1976:99). At the same time, Smith also stresses that hope leads people to overestimate theirchances of making a profit, while they tend to underestimate their chances of making a loss. There isoften an excess of “the presumptuous hope of success” and “the hope of good luck,” as evidenced by
the widespread popularity of lotteries, but not sufficient “fear of misfortune” (Smith [1776] 1976:126).
These observations by Adam Smith that are the predecessors of more recent concepts in behavioral
economics such as overconfidence theory (Camerer et al., 2004). 2
Taking a different approach, Kenneth Boulding defines hope in his “Sources of Reasonable Hopefor the Future” as follows: “Hope is a complex concept, but in all its various meanings it implies
optimism about the future. For a reasonable hope, therefore, we have to examine critically the reasonsfor pessimism, which in its extreme form is despair” (Boulding, 1984:221). And the “greatest resourceof hope is, of course, Julian Simon’s “ultimate resource”-- that is, the human mind and its extraordinary
capacity for learning and the almost irreversible process of accumulation of human knowledge andknow-how” ((Boulding, 1984:225).
Albert O. Hirschman, author of A Bias for Hope (1971), argues that hope often drives economic
progress as “the Hiding Hand” which is “no doubt specially needed where the tradition of problemsolving is weak and where invention and innovation have not yet been institutionalized or routinized”(Hirschman, 1967:15). “The Hiding Hand is essentially a way of inducing action through error, the1 According to Frank Knight ([1921] 1985), uncertainty is characteristic of a situation in which it is notpossible to assign any probability at all to an event, while with risk it is always possible to assess asituation in terms of probabilities.
2 “The chance of gain is by every man more or less over-valued, and the chance of loss is by most men
under-valued, and by scarce any man, who is in tolerable health and spirits, valued more than it is worth.”(Smith [1776] 1976:125)2

error being an underestimate of the project’s cost or difficulties” (Hirschman, 1967:29).
On the other hand, because of difficulties in both definition and analytical treatment, research on
hope has not been a central issue theoretically or empirically in orthodox economics. This means,however, that challenging approaches for hope may clarify new issues that have not yet been treatedadequately by conventional economics. As an example of such a challenge, Swedberg (2016) puts
forward a universal definition of hope simply as “a wish for something to come true,” based on social
sciences (Tocqueville, 1862; Durkheim, 1893; Weber, 1946), religion (Aquinas, 1944; Houser, 2004),
philosophy (Kant, 1781; Kierkegaard, 1843; Bloch, 1986), and anthropology (Crapanzano, 2003;
Miyazaki, 2004).
The general state of empirical studies with respect to hope is one of open issues, while Swedberg
proposes that hope should be considered as an important theoretical concept. An international
comparison is a powerful method to capture universal characteristics of hope in society by finding
common determinants of hope across national boundaries. Therefore, this paper empirically comparesissues regarding hope between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, paying attention to
the similarities and differences with happiness.

2.

Analytical method
In an international comparative survey, the same meanings of questions and answers should beappropriately translated into the different languages used in each country. This study therefore applies
the method of back translation, which is used in sociology to undertake cross-cultural surveys
requiring the use of different languages.
The back translation, as described below, was undertaken to confirm that the survey approach
was used precisely in this study. First, the author, who is a Japanese native, made out a questionnaire
written in Japanese, which is designated “Q-J1.” Second, a professional translator A, who is an English
native employed by a translation company, translated version Q-J1 into one written in English, which
is designated “Q-E1.” Third, another translator B independently translated the Q-E1 back into one
written in Japanese, called “Q-J2.” In preparing Q-J2, translator B never inspected Q-J1 nor had any
contact with translator A.
After completing the process shown above, the author compared versions Q-J1 and Q-J2 in detail.
If different meanings were observed between the two questionnaires, the corresponding parts of Q-J1
were revised by the author and translator A was asked to consider new expressions of Q-E1 for therevised Q-J1. Then translator B received the new Q-E1 revised by translator A and prepared a revised
version of Q-J2. By repeating these processes, the author verified that the same meanings of questions
and options for answers appeared in the back translation, so that the questionnaires were consistent inboth English and Japanese. The final version of the survey in English is shown in the appendix. 3
3

The final versions of questionnaires in Japanese are available on request from the author via the e-mail3

The completed survey was then used to canvass respondents aged between 20 and 59 in Japan,
the UK, and the US. The aim was to distribute samples as evenly as possible by sex and age category
and to make about 1200 observations in each country. The survey was conducted via the internet byresearch agencies in November 2014. The title of the survey was the “International Surveys on Lifeand Hope.” As a result, 1276 respondents in Japan, 1316 in the UK, and 1321 in the US replied to thesame twenty questions.
In Japan, candidate respondents were sampled from among the corresponding subjects aged
between 20 and 59 who were registered in advance for internet surveys. The 4114 subjects so contacted
were asked to cooperate with the current survey; 1321 samples were consequently obtained. Some
doubtful samples in which the 20 questions were completed within one minute were deleted, alongwith others who replied that their years of school education were less than the nine years of compulsory
school education in Japan. This left 1276 observations to be used for the empirical analyses. In the UK
and the US, the observations also included those subjects who directly accessed the websites ofresearch agencies by themselves, in addition to those who were asked by e-mail to cooperate with thesurvey. 43.

Hopes and Happiness
The questions employed and the available choices of answers are based on the outcomes of the

project titled the “Social Sciences of Hope,” which has been undertaken since 2005 by the Institute ofSocial Science at the University of Tokyo to examine the relationship between hope and society inJapan. The empirical studies carried out by this project have revealed that individual characteristics,
social circumstances, and previous experiences have various effects on feelings of hope among theJapanese people (Genda, 2009, 2016). Similar types of questionnaires are employed here for the UK
and the US as well as Japan.
In the survey, in considering situations where people have hopes for something, the author asked
the following questions: “Do you have ‘hopes’ in the sense of things you want to realize in future?”
While the word “hope” is usually used as a verb in English, as in “do you hope to do something?” theword for hope, that is kibou, is generally a noun in Japanese, as in “my hope is to do that.” Different
responses may also appear if the expressions used are “have aspirations,” “have dreams,” or “havegoals,” which are more commonly used than “have hopes” in English.
Looking further, the concept of hope is related not only to personal issues, but also to solutionsof social problems such as world peace and the eradication of poverty. This survey was rather limited
to personal questions; if respondents replied affirmatively to having hopes, they were asked to choose

address given.
4 The information regarding the number of e-mail deliveries required to coordinate the survey was notrevealed by the research agencies in the UK and the US.

4the content of their hopes from the following answers: 1. Work; 2. Family; 3. Health; 4. Appearance;
5. Learning (study); 6. Play (entertainment); 7. Relations with friends; 8. Marriage; 9. Being in love;
10. Social contribution; 11. Other.
They further choose their most important hope as a single answer from these multiple choices.
With respect to this most important hope, the survey asked, “Do you think you will realize this hopethat is most important to you?” The respondents then choose one from the following options: 1.
Absolutely; 2. Perhaps; 3. Perhaps not; or 4. Most certainly not. The most important hope that is
expected to be realized “absolutely” or “perhaps” will be designated as the subject’s feasible hope inthis paper.
The survey also asks respondents who report having feasible hopes the following: “Are you doing
things in order to realize the hope that is most important to you?” They then choose one from thefollowing: 1. Yes, lots of things; 2. Yes, a few things; or 3. No, nothing. If they choose “yes, lots ofthings,” or “yes, a few things,” they are defined as having active hope.
Similarly, those having feasible hopes are asked: “In order to realize the hope that is mostimportant to you, are there people around you who will cooperate with you and support you?” They
choose one from the following: 1. Yes, many people; 2. Yes, a few people; or 3. No, nobody. If theychoose “yes, many people,” or “yes, a few people,” they are defined as displaying cooperative hope.
In addition to several questions regarding the subject’s hopes, the survey simply asks thefollowing with respect to happiness: “Do you consider yourself to be happy?” The respondents thenchoose an answer from the following: 1. Very happy; 2. Somewhat happy; 3. Somewhat unhappy; or
4. Very unhappy.
Table 1 represents the percentages of the answers to the above questions. The proportion reporting“very happy” is 23.8 percent in the UK and 33.2 percent in the US, while it is relatively low in Japan
at 18.5 percent. On the other hand, the proportion of “somewhat unhappy” or “very unhappy” is higher
in Japan than in the UK or the US.
More substantial differences can be observed in all forms of hopes between the three countries.
The proportion reporting having hope amounts to 86.7 percent in the UK and 93.0 percent in the US;
that is, the great majority of people aged between 20 and 59 in the UK and the US hope to realize
something in the future. In contrast, however, only 54.5 percent of Japanese express hope in the senseof having things they want to realize in the future.
While 59.3 percent in the US and 46.5 percent in the UK believe they will realize their mostimportant hope “absolutely,” only 26.2 percent in Japan do so. Even the proportion believing theirfeasible hope may be realized “perhaps” or “absolutely” is substantially lower in Japan than in the UK
and US.
The attribute of having active hope is also quite low in Japan compared with the UK and the US
While the proportion of those who are doing many things to realize their most important hope is 41.0
5percent in the UK and 51.6 percent in the US, it is limited to 25.4 percent in Japan. Further, over 10
percent of Japanese respondents are doing nothing to realize their most important hope.
The answer that they have many people cooperating and supporting them in realizing their mostimportant hope is chosen by 30.5 percent in the UK and 41.8 percent in the US, while it is just 22.1
percent in Japan. More than 10 percent replied that nobody cooperates with them and supports theirmost important hope in Japan.
In several aspects of hope, then, individuals respond more negatively in Japan than in the UK or
the US.

4.

Contents of hope
When respondents reply that they have hopes, they are also asked to indicate the contents of thesehopes in a multiple choice format. Further, they choose the most important content among the choices
available. The results from Japan, the UK, and the US are shown in Table 2.
The most frequently chosen answer is the same in three countries; this is the “family” option. The
family is also chosen most frequently as being the most important hope in each country. It is common
to all three countries that people tend to hope for the well-being of their family, such as having apeaceful life with their family members in the future.
The top three contents among several kinds of hopes are also commonly observed in Japan, theUK, and the US; they are the “family,” “health,” and “work.” Compared with the substantial
proportions of these three, the choices of other contents are relatively few in the three countries.
Next to the family, the issue of work is chosen as the second most important hope in Japan, while
health is more frequently chosen than work in the UK and US. When Genda (2009, 2016) examinedthe distribution of hope in Japan in 2006, using a similar survey, work issues such as high earnings,
stable employment, and attractive jobs were chosen most often as hopes, while family issues wererated lower than work. Specifically, 66.3 percent of the respondents chose work from the options
available, while 46.4 percent of them selected family issues.
It should be noted that the proportion of the population reporting that they have hopes in workand life has been continuously declining in Japan, according to a panel survey conducted by theInstitute of Social Science, University of Tokyo. 5 Genda (2015) clarified the fact that the East Japan
Great Earthquake that occurred on March 11 in 2011 performed a crucial role in shifting the content
of the most important reported hope from work to the family. 6 It is suggested that Japanese people
have changed their outlook to think a great deal more about their families when facing this serious
incident, which took away more than 15,000 lives and left about 2,500 people missing, in addition to

5

The relevant press release can be accessed at http://csrda.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/panel/pr/.
Probably a similar kind of shift occurred in the US after September 11 in 2001 attacks; that is theincreased concern with family relationships.

66

the damage caused by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear power plant accidents.

5.

Determinants of feasible hope

5.1 Objective factors
This section examines empirically the determinants that have effects on probabilities of having
hope in each country, using the probit model.
Among the several forms of hopes, we focus here on feasible hope. A dependent variable is set
to 1 if respondents indicate having hopes as well as the belief that their most important hope will beabsolutely or perhaps realized. It is set to 0 if respondents indicate either that they do not have any
hopes, or that they do not believe their most important hope will be “perhaps” or “most certainly”
realized. According to Table 1, the probability of having a feasible hope is 89.7 percent( = (93.0/100)*(59.3+37.2)/100) in the US, while it is 81.4 percent in the UK; it is only 46.6 percent
in Japan.
As independent variables, we first specify objective individual characteristics; these aredesignated by dummy variables representing sex, age, years of school education, marital status, having
children, and having a job with income. Table 3 shows the composition of these variables in eachcountry.
Table 4 represents the estimated marginal effects obtained by the probit model using the above
independent variables on respondents expressing feasible hopes.
Several common trends can be observed among the three countries. First, the younger age
categories such as 20 to 24 years old display a significantly positive impact on having feasible hopes.
Youths possess an absolute advantage over senior and old people in respect of one important resource
for realizing hopes: that is, “time.” Therefore, younger persons tend to have a greater measure offeasible hopes. This tendency has been already observed in the Social Sciences of Hope in Japan(Genda, 2016).
Second, as for the characteristic of marital status, the marginal effect of being married issignificantly positive in Japan, the UK, and the US. Table 2 shows that the family is a centralcomponent of the contents of hope in each country. It is quite natural that married persons are more
likely to have greater feasible hope about their family than unmarried single ones.
The third trend the three nations share is that having an income-bearing job has a significantly
positive impact on probabilities of feasible hope. Almost 30 percent of respondents do not have jobs
with income in each country in Table 3, implying a decline in hopes in those without employment.
Possessing a job not only provides a certain level of income to realize hopes for family and health, butalso promotes optimism that hopes may be realized through working.
Looking at Table 3 again, the proportion of respondents who report being married and having a
job with income are a little higher in Japan than in the UK and the US. Nevertheless, Table 1 shows7that the level of feasible hope is less in Japan than in the UK and the US. These results suggest that
there are other important factors having influences on hope.

5.2 Subjective factors
Using Japanese data, Genda (2016) finds that several subjective factors have substantial impacts
on probabilities of having hope, in addition to the effects of objective characteristics. This paper
investigates whether the impacts of such subjective factors can be observed in the UK and the US incommon with Japan.
As a first example, we estimate the effect of the respondents’ perceptions of their own healthcondition on their probabilities of feasible hope. The survey includes the question, “Which of thefollowing best describes your health?” The respondents choose one from “very healthy,” “somewhat
healthy,” “neither healthy nor unhealthy,” “somewhat unhealthy,” or “very unhealthy.” Using theanswers to this question, we add a dummy indicator for health condition as an independent variable in
the probit model estimation, in addition to the objective factors shown in Table 4. The top of Table 5
displays the estimated impact of the respondents’ self-assessed health condition on their feasible hopes.
The respondents who feel very healthy have significantly a higher probability of feasible hope thanthose who feel neither healthy nor unhealthy in each country. This suggests that an individual’s healthcondition plays a crucial positive role in promoting feasible hopes, because unhealthy situations
prevent people from acting to realize their aims.
As another important subjective factor, we can focus on relationships with friends. The survey asks
directly, “Do you think you have many friends?” The choices for an answer are as follows: “I have
many friends,” “I have neither many nor few friends,” “I have few friends,” and “I have no friends.”
The estimated impact of having friends, as shown in Table 5, is derived by adding a dummy indicator
for the above question and its answers as an independent variable to those reported in Table 4. The
results show that respondents who think that they have few or no friends have significantly lower
probabilities of feasible hope in each country. By contrast, those in Japan and the UK who think they
have many friends are more likely to have feasible hopes. The perceived number of friends will bepositively related to hope, because in many cases people’s hopes can be fulfilled and realized throughcooperation and support from their circle of acquaintances.
According to previous studies conducted by the Social Sciences of Hope in Japan, the experienceof ordeals and difficulties in the past promotes increased hopes in people after the event. It can beinterpreted that the process of overcoming severe trials is closely related to a current assessment ofrealizing hopes that is directed towards the improved situation in the present when compared with thepast. This phenomenon is called the positive “setback” effect on hope, in that hope is promoted if
setbacks are overcome (Genda, 2009, 2016). 7
7

According to Genda (2016), for those who were successful in landing the jobs they wanted, work has not

8With respect to this setback effect, the comparative survey asks, “Within the last five years, haveyou experienced a major incident that injured you psychologically (for example, unemployment, amajor illness, or the death of a loved one)?” The respondents then choose one from the following: “Ihave had no such experience,” “I have had one such experience,” or “I have had two or more such
experiences.” Looking at the results of those reporting major injurious incidents over the previous five
years, those who had one such experience tend to have significantly more feasible hope in the UK and
the US. The experience of two or more injurious incidents has a significantly positive impact on
feasible hope in Japan. These results suggest that the positive setback effect works to enhance hope in
the UK and the US, in common with Japan.
The survey also asks, “Which of the following best describes the place you currently live in?” The
respondents then choose a subjective description of their residence from the following: “city center,”“city suburb,” or “outside of city.” The findings show that the reported place of residence has no
significant influence on feasible hopes in each of the three countries.
Genda (2014) undertook a preliminary comparative study of hope between France, Japan, South
Korea, and the US. Two important common findings were observed: one is that religion or daily belief
is closely related to having hopes, while the other is that adults generally tend to have more hope ifthey feel they were trusted by the adults around them when they were teenagers. The support obtained
from religion, and the formation of feelings of self-respect derived from trust, will enable people to
make efforts to realize their hopes in spite of facing difficulties.
In order to confirm these facts, the current survey asks, “Do you have religious beliefs that you
practice on a daily basis?” and “When you were a teenager, do you think that you were trusted by theadults around you?” The choices are basically “yes” or “no,” while “I don’t want to answer” forreligion and “I don’t know” for trust are also available. Looking at Table 5, the exercise of religious
belief on a daily basis, and the memory of being trusted by adults as teenagers, have significantly
positive effects on having feasible hopes in all three countries. Religious belief and trust seem to beuniversal resources for hope.
The estimations for subjective factors further examine the relationship between personal hopes andthe patriotic spirit. The survey asks, “Do you like the country you currently live in?” The results
always been smooth sailing with hopes fulfilled as a matter of course. In fact, when asked whether they hadgone through setbacks and/or experienced mistakes regarding their employment within five years of
beginning work, 48.4% of the respondents answered that they had. Of those who had experienced past
failures, 83.2% are currently confident of having overcome them.
This is significant because the experience of having overcome a setback in the past has a significant
influence on whether an individual has attainable hopes toward work. In concrete terms, among those who
experienced failures during the first five years of working and managed to overcome them, 57.5% express
attainable hopes toward work. On the other hand, just under half, or 45.0%, of those who experienced
setbacks, but felt they had been unable to overcome them, have attainable hopes regarding work. Moresurprising is the fact that just 47.2% of those who never experienced any setback have attainable hopes
toward work, a percentage similar to that among those who did not succeed in overcoming setbacks. These
results show that to “experience overcoming” a setback is closely linked to the possession of hope.

9presented in Table 5 show that the patriotism is closely connected with feasible hopes; the more people
like their country, the more they tend to have feasible hopes in all three countries. The general senseof people’s satisfaction with their nationwide living circumstances that is represented by the patriotic
spirit will be another important source promoting feasible hope in these countries.

5.3 Reasons for less hope in Japan
According to the results in Table 5, we can clarify the reason for a substantially lower proportionof expressed feasible hope in Japan relative to the UK and the US.
Table 6 shows the share in the population of each option of the subjective variables tracked in Table
5 for the three countries. The most striking factor in the table is the issue of having friends in Japan;
the proportion of respondents who replied that they have many friends is more than 30 percent in the
UK and the US, but it is only 8.0 percent in Japan. On the other hand, 54.8 percent of Japanese
respondents feel that they have few friends, greatly exceeding those with many friends. As the numberof friends that people have has a steady impact on hope, the perception of having few friends is a
substantial reason why the Japanese are less likely to express feasible hopes.
The second important reason for lower levels of hope in Japan may be attributed to fewer
experiences during people’s teenage years of being trusted by adults. In the UK and the US, more than70 percent of respondents aged between 20 and 59 feel that they were trusted by the adults aroundthem when they were teenagers; in contrast, the proportion reporting that they felt trusted as teenagers
is limited to 42.6 percent among the Japanese respondents. The relative lack of the experience of being
trusted reduces feasible hopes in Japan to a large degree.
The third reason derives from differences in the daily practice of religious belief; 46.9 percent of
the respondents of the US survey say they exercise their religious beliefs daily. The proportion withreligious belief among the UK respondents is 18.4 percent and it falls further to 8.3 percent among theJapanese respondents. Religion plays a crucial role in promoting hope, so the lack of daily expressionof belief is strongly connected to the lower levels of feasible hope in Japan.
In addition, the number of people describing themselves as “very healthy” and saying, “(I) like (thecountry) very much” is also relatively few in Japan, compared with the UK and the US. “No experience(of injuring major incidents)” is a little higher in Japan than in the UK and US. However, thesedifferences are not particularly substantial. The perceived lack of friends, the poverty of experience infeeling trusted, and the low levels of practice of daily religious belief, manifest as the major reasonsfor diminished levels of hope in Japan.

6. Determinants of happiness
6.1

Objective factors
To provide a comparison with the results for hopes, the determinants of happiness are next
10

empirically examined using the probit model as shown in Tables 4 and 5. The dependent variable is 1
if respondents feel “very happy” or “somewhat happy,” while it is 0 if they are “very unhappy” or“somewhat unhappy.”
Table 7 shows the results of the probit model estimations for happiness, using the same independent
variables in shown Table 4. In common with the results on feasible hope, married people and thosehaving income-bearing jobs show a significant tendency to be happy in each country. 8
However, this study does not find significant common results apart from those for marriage andjobs. Females are happier than males in each country, although the female dummy is not significant
for the UK. The effect of age appears U-shaped in the UK and US, as is shown by Blanchflower and
Oswald (2004), although the estimated results are mostly insignificant. In Japan, younger people are
significantly happier than older ones; this is consistent with the results obtained by Ohtake, Shiraishi,
and Tsutsui (2009, chapter 2). Years of school education have no effect on happiness among UK andUS respondents in our data, while education plays a significant role in being happy in Japan. Having
children is closely related to happiness in the US, but is independent of such feelings in the UK andJapan.

6.2 Subjective factors
Table 8 represents the influences on happiness of the subjective factors that were examined inrelationship with feasible hopes in Table 5.
In each of the three countries, more than a few subjective factors displayed similar impacts onhappiness as they did on feasible hopes. First, the effect of people’s self-assessed health condition ismostly significant and positively correlated with being happy. Second, the more friends people have,the happier they feel, again at significant levels. It is thus common to Japan, the UK, and the US that
healthy people with many friends tend to be happy and have hopes they wish to realize.
Those who like their own countries are also significantly happier. However, it should be clearly
understood that happy people might like a country that contributes to providing favorable lives; thatis, happiness and patriotism will be simultaneously codetermined in close relationship.
Memories of being trusted by adults when they were teenagers enable adult respondents to feel
happy as well as to hope for attainable goals. The self-esteem created by trust is a universal resourcefor hope and happiness.
There are, however, subjective factors that have different impacts on happiness when comparedwith feasible hope. One is daily religious belief; in the UK, it appears as insignificant for happiness inTable 5, while it is positive for feasible hope at the 10 percent significance level in Table 8. In the US,
the effect of belief is positive for happiness at the level of 10 percent significance at most, while it is8

Clark and Oswald (1994) found that being jobless is negatively correlated with well-being at thestatistical significant levels, using data from the UK.

11positive for feasible hope at the level of 1 percent significance.
Furthermore, there exists one subjective factor that works in opposite directions on hope andhappiness, this being the experience of major injurious incidents in the preceding five years. In Table
5, such serious incidents do indeed play a role in promoting hope, implying the positive setback effect.
Looking at Table 8, however, such injurious incidents display rather a significant and negative impact
on probabilities of happiness in each country. The marginal effect further suggests that if persons
suffered two or more times from such negative events, they would be unhappier than those reporting
just one such incident.
Figure 1 represents the possible relationship between injurious incidents, hope, and happiness.
When faced with ordeals, people become psychologically injured, meaning that they are less likely tobe happy than they were before the distress. A short time later, they will naturally attempt to move
forward in order to overcome the difficulties they face. As it takes time to return to the situation before
the shock, however, they continue to be more or less unhappy. The experience of serious misfortune
thus necessarily reduces the degree of happiness for a while.
On the other hand, people can perceive at the same time that the action required to improve thesituation will gradually become effective. Thus, they have current hopes for something to be realized
in the future, resulting in the positive setback effect. Through this process, both feasible hope andfeelings of unhappiness can coexist for a certain period after experiencing a severe setback. The
estimated results obtained can be consistently explained by this interpretation.

7.

Ordeals and several kinds of hopes
Finally, the effect of ordeals in the past on various forms of hopes is examined.
The international survey contains plural questions with respect to hopes. From these questions,four types of hopes are defined; their compositions in each country are shown in Table 1. Probit
analysis is applied to examine the effect of injurious incidents in the past on these respective hopes. In
addition to the experience of such incidents, dummy variables for sex, age, years of school education,
marital status, having children, and having a job with income are controlled as independent variables.
The estimated results for having experienced injurious incidents are shown in Table 9. The resultsof having feasible hopes are same as those shown in Table 5; the results of being happy are the sameas those shown in Table 8. Those who experienced major incidents in the previous five years are foundto have significantly more hope in each country.
As to having active hopes in which the respondents are doing something to realize their mostimportant hope, an injurious incident being experienced once has a significant positive impact in Japan,
the UK, and the US. Those who experienced such incidents twice or more also tend significantly tohave active hopes in Japan. These results confirm that ordeals may influence people to act against
difficulties in order to realize their hopes.
12

The one-time experience of an injurious incident in the preceding five years also plays asignificantly positive role in having accompanied hopes in each country. Such an ordeal may draw
people to cooperate with and support someone who is attempting to realize his/her hopes in spite ofadversity. The only exception is that two or more such experiences have a significantly negative effecton having accompanied hope in the US. Apart from this case, injurious major incidents in the past are
positively related to all manifestations of hope in these three countries.
The most important findings of this paper are that the effects of ordeals on hope run counter to theirimpact on happiness in all three countries studied, while many factors display influences in the same
direction on both hope and happiness.

8.

Conclusions
This paper attempts to redress the lack of empirical studies on hope relative to the plentiful studies

on happiness by undertaking an international comparison between Japan, the UK, and the US. From
the original comparative survey made using the back translation method, we can report several new
findings with respect to hope.
While most people express having hopes to achieve something in the UK and the US, almost half
the population aged between 20 and 59 does not have any hopes in Japan. However, the contents ofpeople’s hopes are quite similar, with the most frequently expressed common hopes among the three
countries being regarding family issues.
In addition, there are several common determinants that connect with people’s perception that theirmost important hope can be realized in the future. In each country, youth, married people, and thosehaving an income-bearing job are more likely to have feasible hopes. Subjective factors such as theself-assessment of health conditions, the extent of friendships, the memory of being trusted by adults
in teenage years, the daily exercise of religious belief, and the patriotic spirit also have significantly
positive effects on feasible hope across countries.
The low proportion of those expressing hope in Japan may be attributed to the lack of perceived
friends, the paucity of experiences of being trusted, and a lower level of daily religious practicecompared with the UK and the US. The experience of major injurious incidents in the past lowers
feelings of happiness, but on the other hand, it generally encourages people to behave actively in orderto realize their hopes.
As one of issues remaining for future studies to tackle in detail, it should be thoroughly clarified
why it is only in Japan that so few people report that they have many friends or that they were trusted
by adults as teenagers. Related research suggests that among the victims of the Great East Japan
Earthquake that occurred on March 11 in 2011, those suffering damage to a certain degree could soon
recover their hopes, in line with the positive setback effect demonstrated in this paper. However, it isquite difficult for those who have been very seriously damaged to overcome their difficulties and to13

have hopes of improving their situations (Genda, 2015). Therefore, it is important to understand inmuch more detail how such ordeals may influence hope and happiness in developing future related
studies.

14

References
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House.
Blanchflower, David G. and Andrew J. Oswald. 2004. “Well-being over time in Britain and the USA,”
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Boulding, Kenneth. 1984. “Sources of Reasonable Hope for the Future,” American Economic Review
74, No.2, pp.221-25.
Camerer, Colin et al. (eds). 2004. Advances in Behavioral Economics. Princeton: Princeton University
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Easterlin, Richard A. 2010. Happiness, Growth, and the Life Cycle. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frey, Bruno S. and Alois Stutzer. 2002. Happiness and Economics: How the Economy and Institutions
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Genda, Yuji. 2009. Data ga Kataru Nihon no Kibou (Hope of Japan suggested by the Data), in Social
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and Shigeki Uno (eds.) Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press. [in Japanese]
Genda, Yuji. 2014. Kibou nit suite: Kofuku oyobi Takoku tono Hikaku (Hope in Japan: A Comparison
with Happiness and Other Countries), in Kofuku (Happiness). Toshiaki Tachibanaki (ed.) Kyoto:
Minerva Shobo. [in Japanese]
Genda, Yuji. 2015. Kiki to Koyo: Saigai no Rodo Keizaigaku (Crisis and Employment: Labor
Economics of Disasters), Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten. [in Japanese]
Genda, Yuji. 2016. “Hope and Society in Japan,” in Hope and the Economy, Richard Swedberg and
Hirokazu Miyazaki (eds.) Pennsylvania University Press (forthcoming).
Grahan, Carol L. 2011. The Pursuit of Happiness: An Economy of Well-Being, Washington D.C.:
Brookings.
Hirschman, Albert O. 1967. Development Projects Observed. Washington, DC: Brookings.
Hirschman, Albert O. [1971]1985. A Bias for Hope: Essays on Development and Latin America.
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Houser, R.E. (ed.). 2004. The Cardinal Virtues: Aquinas, Albert and Philip the Chancellor. Toronto:
Pontifical Institute of Medieval Studies.
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Kant, Immanuel. [1781] 1965. Critique of Pure Reason. Trans. Norman Kemp Smith. New York: St.
Martin’s Press.
Kierkegaard, Søren. [1843] 1987. Either/Or. Vol. 1. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Knight, Frank H. [1921] 1985. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Layard, Richard. 2005. Happiness: Lessons from a New Science. New York: Penguin.
Miyazaki, Hirokazu. 2004. The Method of Hope: Anthropology, Philosophy, and Fijian Knowledge.
Stanford: Stanford University Press.
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Kazoku (The Degree of Happiness of the Japanese: Differentials, Work, and Family), Tokyo: Nihon
Hyoron Sha [in Japanese].
Smith, Adam. [1776] 1976. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
R.H.Campbell, A.S.Skinner, and W.B.Todd (eds.) Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Swedberg, Richard. 2016. “The Sociological Study of Hope and the Economy: Introductory Remarks,”
in Richard Swedberg and Hirokazu Miyazaki (eds.) Hope and the Economy, Pennsylvania
University Press (forthcoming).
Tocqueville, Alexis de. 1862. “France before the Revolution,” pp. 204-52 in Vol. 1 of Memoirs, Letters,
and Remains. Boston: Ticknor and Fields.
Weber, Max. 1946. In Hans Gerth and C. Wright Mills (eds.), From Max Weber. New York: Oxford
University Press.

16

Appendix. International Surveys on Life and Hope
Q1 Are you male or female?
1 Male2 FemaleQ2 How old are you?
1

20 to 24 years

2

25 to 29 years

3

30 to 34 years

4

35 to 39 years

5

40 to 44 years

6

45 to 49 years

7

50 to 54 years

8

55 to 59 years(Please choose from the following age ranges.)

Q3 How many years did you attend school?

(Not including temporary leaves from school andrepeated years).
1

6 years or less2

7 to 9 years

3

10 to 12 years

4

13 to 14 years

5

15 to 16 years

6

17 years or more

Q4 What is your marital status?
1 Unmarried
2 Married (including common-law marriage)
3 Divorced
4 Widowed

Q5 Do you have children?
1 Yes
2 No

17

Q6 Which of the following best describes your health?
1 Very healthy
2 Somewhat healthy
3 Neither healthy or unhealthy
4 Somewhat unhealthy
5 Very unhealthy

Q7 Do you currently have a job from which you obtain income?
1 Yes
2 No

Q8 Do you think you have many friends?
1 I have many friends
2 I have neither many nor few friends
3 I have few friends.
4 I have no friends

Q9 Within the last five years, have you experienced a major incident that injured you psychologically(for example, unemployment, a major illness, or the death of a loved one)?
1 I have had no such experience.
2 I have had one such experience.
3 I have had two or more such experiences.

Q10 Which of the following best describes the place you currently live in?
1 City center2 City suburb
3 Outside of city

Q11 Do you have religious beliefs that you practice on a daily basis?
1 Yes
2 No

Q12 When you were a teenager, do you think that you were trusted by the adults around you?
1 Yes
2 No
3 I don’t know
18

Q13 Do you have “hopes” in the sense of things you will want to realize in the future?

1 Yes
2 No ⇒go to Q19
Q14 (If you selected “1” in Q13) What are these hopes about? Please select all that apply from thefollowing choices.
1 Work2 Family
3 Health
4 Appearance
5 Learning (study)
6 Play (entertainment)
7 Relations with friend
8 Marriage
9 Being in love
10 Social contribution
11 Other

Q15 Among your choices to Q14, which is the most important to you?

(Please select one.)

1 Work2 Family
3 Health
4 Appearance
5 Learning (study)
6 Play (entertainment)
7 Relations with friend
8 Marriage
9 Being in love
10 Social contribution
11 Other

Q16 Do you think if the hope that is the most important to you will realize?
1 Absolutely
2 Perhaps
19

3 Perhaps not ⇒go to Q19
4 Most certainly not ⇒go to Q19
Q17 (If you selected 1 or 2 in Q16) Are you doing things in order to realize the hope that is the mostimportant to you?
1 Yes, lots of things
2 Yes, a few things
3 No, nothing

Q18 (If you selected 1 or 2 in Q16) In order to realize the hope that is the most important to you, arethere any people around you who will cooperate with you and support you?
1 Yes, many people
2 Yes, a few people
3 No, nobody

Q19 Do you consider yourself to be happy?
1 Very happy
2 Somewhat happy
3 Somewhat unhappy
4 Very unhappy

Q20 Do you like the country you currently live in?
1 Yes, I like it very much.
2 I somewhat like it.
3 I neither like nor dislike it.
4 I somewhat dislike it
5 I dislike it very much.

20

Table 1. The Compositon of Happiness and Hope in Japan, the UK, and the US (%)

Do you consider yourself to be happy?
Very happy
Somewhat happy
Somewhat unhappy
Very unhappyJapan

The UKThe US

18.5
57.0
19.7
4.8

23.8
60.9
12.1
3.3

33.2
54.7
9.5
2.6

54.5
45.5

86.7
13.3

93.0
7.0

26.2
59.3
13.1
1.4

46.5
47.4
5.3
0.8

59.3
37.2
2.9
0.6

25.4
62.8
11.8

41.0
54.7
4.3

51.6
45.7
2.6

22.1
66.8
11.1

30.5
65.1
4.3

41.8
54.5
3.7

Do you have “hopes” in the sense of things you want to realize in the future?
Yes
No
Do you think you will realize this hope that is most important to you?
(Having feasible hope)Absolutely
Perhaps
Perhaps not
Most certainly not
Are you doing things in order to realize the hope that is most important toyou? (Having active hope)
Yes, lots of things
Yes, a few things
No, nothing
In order to realize the hope that is most important to you，are there people
around you who will cooperate with you and support you? (Having
accompanied hope)
Yes, many people
Yes, a few people
No, nobody

21

Table 2. The Contents of Hope (%)
Japan

Work
FamilyHealthAppearance
Learning (study)
Play (entertainment)
Relation with friend
Marriage
Being in love
Social contribution
Other

The UKThe USAll hopes

Most important hope

All hopes

Most important hope

All hopes

Most important hope

49.2
62.6
41.0
12.1
17.6
25.3
15.1
18.7
13.5
11.7
15.0

15.5
44.2
13.7
0.6
2.0
4.3
0.7
5.5
1.6
2.4
9.5

60.2
77.4
62.3
31.7
26.9
24.1
21.7
33.7
36.2
26.2
9.2

7.5
54.1
16.6
1.1
2.2
1.8
1.1
3.9
7.2
1.4
3.2

64.7
79.0
68.2
40.6
35.4
34.6
33.6
44.2
41.7
34.2
9.8

8.1
54.9
13.3
1.0
3.1
1.4
1.3
6.2
5.9
1.9
3.1

22

Table 3. Composition of Objective Characteristics Among ObservationsJapan

The UKThe US

Sex

male
femaleAge
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
Years of school 6 years or less
7 to 9 years
10 to 12 years
13 to 14 years
15 to 16 years
17 years or more
Marriage
unmarriedmarrieddivorcedwidowedHaving children (yes)Having a job with income (yes)

49.6
50.4
7.0
17.6
10.3
14.9
12.8
12.1
14.7
10.6
0.0
2.6
24.8
20.1
38.1
14.5
41.4
53.5
4.5
0.6
44.8
73.7

49.5
50.5
11.3
13.3
12.0
13.1
12.0
13.1
11.5
13.6
2.0
5.5
30.2
21.4
19.6
21.3
39.1
51.9
8.1
0.8
57.5
71.8

50.2
49.8
10.6
14.2
14.8
10.4
11.7
13.2
11.7
13.2
5.9
2.8
18.5
23.8
23.8
25.3
35.8
52.1
10.9
1.2
60.6
70.9

Observations

1,276

1,316

1,321

23

Table 4. The Objective Deteminants of Feasible Hope Estimated by the Probit ModelJapan
Sex (base: male)Age(base: 40 to 44 years)

female20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
Years of school
6 years or less(base: 10 to 12 years)
7 to 9 years
13 to 14 years
15 to 16 years
17 years or more
Marriagemarried(base: unmarried)
divorcedwidowedHaving children
Having a job with income
Observations
Pseudo R-square
Log likelihood

0.06010.22240.05440.0176-0.01680.0307-0.0648-0.0353(0.0302)(0.0648)(0.0541)(0.0600)(0.0541)(0.0571)(0.0536)(0.0591)0.08710.05700.06590.13350.21900.1081-0.08230.00810.1282(0.0925)(0.0431)(0.0373)(0.0476)(0.0439)(0.0768)(0.1943)(0.0424)(0.0338)
1,276
0.0393-846.8The UK
**
***

*
***
***

***

0.01050.12510.08610.05000.0911-0.0146-0.03400.06080.10010.0159-0.0086
0.05570.00220.07530.0301-0.08080.03960.1540(0.0215)(0.0262)(0.0316)(0.0358)(0.0308)(0.0414)(0.0446)(0.0344)(0.0541)(0.0470)(0.0293)(0.0270)(0.0297)(0.0277)(0.0390)(0.1278)(0.0258)(0.0272)
1,316
0.0683-589.2The US
***
**
**

*
***

***

Notes: The numbers denote the marginal effect of the probit estimation. Numbers within parentheses denote standard errors.

24

0.0312
0.05630.03390.0017-0.01160.0238-0.0325-0.0186
0.00490.07290.04650.03140.03580.0446-0.0150-0.05510.07020.0439(0.0161)(0.0207)(0.0251)(0.0306)(0.0352)(0.0276)(0.0371)(0.0340)(0.0338)(0.0203)(0.0186)(0.0199)(0.0200)(0.0206)(0.0301)(0.0877)(0.0215)(0.0198)
1,321
0.0803-402.7

*
**

*
**

**

***
**

Table 5. The Subjective Deteminants of Feasible Hope Estimated by the Probit ModelJapan
Health conditions(base: neither healthy nor unhealthy)

Having friends(base: neither many nor few friends)
Experience with incidents involving major injuries in the last 5 years(base: no experience)
Place of residence(base: city suburb)
Having daily religious belief(base: no)
Was trusted by adults in teenage(base: no)
Like the country(base:neither like nor dislike)very healthy
somewhat healthy
somewhat unhealthy
very unhealthy
many friends
few friends
no friends
one
two or morecity center
outside of city
yes
don't want to answer
yes
don't know
like very muchsomewhat likesomewhat dislike
dislike very much

0.17720.12410.0295-0.0805
0.2150-0.1810-0.33440.04950.07490.0531-0.0418
0.29910.05580.16140.02190.25020.1408-0.0798-0.1536(0.0517)(0.0460)(0.0616)(0.0960)(0.0576)(0.0322)(0.0411)(0.0332)(0.0390)(0.0378)(0.0335)(0.0458)(0.0879)(0.0421)(0.0425)(0.0426)(0.0435)(0.0794)(0.1307)

The UK
***
***

***
***
***
*

***
***
***
***

0.16080.0962-0.0750-0.1368
0.1121-0.0738-0.37930.0423-0.0292
0.0386-0.0187
0.04900.05040.14130.04630.17920.1029-0.0201-0.0102(0.0223)(0.0282)(0.0463)(0.0846)(0.0233)(0.0263)(0.0921)(0.0228)(0.0315)(0.0283)(0.0236)(0.0262)(0.0425)(0.0349)(0.0318)(0.0268)(0.0273)(0.0451)(0.0634)

The US
***
***
*
*
***
***
***
*

*
***
***
***

0.03880.0404-0.0860-0.1092
0.0081-0.0632-0.16480.0354-0.0330
0.0024-0.0176
0.07720.04680.05980.01230.11570.06060.0081-0.4201(0.0218)(0.0230)(0.0462)(0.0912)(0.0205)(0.0236)(0.0709)(0.0165)(0.0216)(0.0194)(0.0200)(0.0156)(0.0198)(0.0277)(0.0281)(0.0292)(0.0183)(0.0374)(0.1914)

*
*
**

***
***
**

***
*
**
***
***
***

Notes: The numbers denote the marginal effect of the probit estimation. Numbers within parentheses denote standard errors. In each estimation of subjective deteminants, the objective variables in Table 4 are also
included as explanatory variables, namely, the dummy variables for sex, age, years of education, marital status, having children, and having a job.

25

Table 6. Composition of the Subjective Factors to Detemine Feasible Hope (%)

Health conditions

Having friends

Experience with incidents involving major injuries in the last 5 years

Place of residence

Having daily religious belief

Was trusted by adults in teenage

Like the country

very healthy
somewhat healthyneither healthy nor unhealthy
somewhat unhealthy
very unhealthy
many friends
neither many nor few friends
few friends
no friends
no experienceone
two or morecity centercity suburb
outside of cityyes
nodon't want to answer
yesno
don't know
like very muchsomewhat likeneither like nor dislike
somewhat dislike
dislike very much

26

Japan

The UKThe US

21.0
53.1
12.3
10.4
3.1
8.0
28.9
54.8
8.3
51.8
29.3
18.9
20.1
50.5
29.3
8.3
88.9
2.7
42.6
16.2
41.2
38.1
40.4
15.6
4.5
1.4

25.0
49.4
14.1
8.9
2.7
31.7
32.2
33.4
2.7
48.1
35.6
16.3
18.6
42.0
39.4
18.4
77.1
4.5
73.4
13.8
12.8
40.0
37.9
12.6
6.9
2.6

31.6
47.8
11.5
7.5
1.5
37.8
26.9
31.8
3.6
43.6
33.7
22.7
24.5
49.4
22.7
46.9
48.1
5.0
79.8
12.4
5.0
62.0
26.0
8.5
2.9
0.7

Table 7. The Objective Deteminants of Happiness Estimated by the Probit ModelJapan
Sex (base: male)Age(base: 40 to 44 years)

female20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
Years of school
6 years or less(base: 10 to 12 years)
7 to 9 years
13 to 14 years
15 to 16 years
17 years or more
Marriagemarried(base: unmarried)
divorcedwidowedHaving children
Having a job with income
Observations
Pseudo R-square
Log likelihood

The UK

0.11780.1422-0.0182-0.0104-0.0882-0.0993-0.0816-0.1308(0.0250)(0.0360)(0.0477)(0.0543)(0.0532)(0.0567)(0.0544)(0.0615)-0.0126
0.0666
0.10940.09490.2676
0.05990.05120.01980.0929(0.0759)(0.0317)(0.0286)(0.0318)(0.0400)(0.0514)(0.1220)(0.0386)(0.0318)1,276
0.1117-631.4

***
***

*
*
**

**
***
***
***

***

0.00480.07830.03850.02450.0046-0.0257
0.03090.04440.0424-0.0295-0.02300.01050.00740.10170.0154-0.2001-0.00420.1424(0.0197)(0.0281)(0.0334)(0.0357)(0.0375)(0.0404)(0.0352)(0.0330)(0.0617)(0.0485)(0.0283)(0.0272)(0.0274)(0.0257)(0.0363)(0.1457)(0.0230)(0.0256)
1,316
0.0656-527.1The US*****0.02960.0046-0.01470.0191-0.0665-0.0265-0.04440.0004-0.0082
0.0115-0.0006-0.00430.02540.0413-0.0337(0.0179)(0.0368)(0.0380)(0.0334)(0.0481)(0.0400)(0.0435)(0.0363)(0.0413)(0.0528)(0.0259)(0.0265)(0.0251)(0.0228)(0.0357)

0.07140.1138(0.0230)(0.0238)
1,305
0.0794-447.0

*

*

*
***

***
***

Notes: The numbers denote the marginal effect of the probit estimation. Numbers within parentheses denote standard errors. Dependent variable takes a value of 1 if
respondets reply to "very happy" or "somewhat happy" and 0 if they choose "somewhat unhappy" or "very unhappy."For the US estimation, observations for widows
were deleted because all the sampled widows choose "very happy" or "somehat happy".

27

Table 8. The Subjective Deteminants of Happiness Estimated by the Probit ModelJapan
Health conditions(base: neither healthy nor unhealthy)

Having friends(base: neither many nor few friends)
Experience with incidents involving major injuries in the last 5 years(base: no experience)
Place of residence(base: city suburb)
Having daily religious belief(base: no)
Was trusted by adults in teenage(base: no)
Like the country(base:neither like nor dislike)very healthy
somewhat healthy
somewhat unhealthy
very unhealthy
many friends
few friends
no friends
one
two or morecity center
outside of city
yes
don't want to answer
yes
don't know
like very muchsomewhat likesomewhat dislike
dislike very much

0.20740.1656-0.1077-0.24300.1150-0.1713-0.3333-0.0529-0.2103
0.0364-0.02430.1359-0.10130.16190.06090.27060.1769-0.1652-0.4560(0.0250)(0.0352)(0.0529)(0.0971)(0.0434)(0.0272)(0.0610)(0.0298)(0.0382)(0.0304)(0.0288)(0.0313)(0.0827)(0.0312)(0.0315)(0.0273)(0.0291)(0.0749)(0.1603)

The UK
***
***
**
***
**
***
***
*
***

***
***
*
***
***
**
***

0.13810.0890-0.1085-0.14900.0524-0.1452-0.3591-0.0606-0.1882
0.04720.00640.03730.00280.0972-0.00100.17310.1236-0.0687-0.1917(0.0189)(0.0251)(0.0464)(0.0799)(0.0236)(0.0274)(0.0907)(0.0234)(0.0379)(0.0239)(0.0211)(0.0242)(0.0452)(0.0315)(0.0335)(0.0227)(0.0221)(0.0451)(0.0860)

The US
***
***
***
**
**
***
***
***
***
*

***
***
***
*
***

0.15150.1181-0.0600-0.0567
0.0652-0.0864-0.2515-0.0416-0.16900.0317-0.0092
0.03360.01750.09470.01940.20430.0582-0.0671-0.2330(0.0168)(0.0216)(0.0378)(0.0722)(0.0199)(0.0243)(0.0782)(0.0218)(0.0315)(0.0195)(0.0209)(0.0177)(0.0337)(0.0313)(0.0292)(0.0327)(0.0186)(0.0582)(0.1732)

***
***
*
***
***
***
**
***

*
***
***
***
*

Notes: The numbers denote the marginal effect of the probit estimation. Numbers within parentheses denote standard errors. In each estimation of subjective deteminants, the objective variables in Table 7 are also
included as explanatory variables, namely, the dummy variables for sex, age, years of education, marital status, having children, and having a job.

28

Table 9. The Effects of Experience with Incidents Involving Injuries on Hope and HappinessJapan

The UKThe US

Having hopeone
twice or more

0.06340.1251(0.0326)(0.0371)****

0.04560.0102(0.0188)(0.0243)**0.0445-0.0013(0.0117)(0.0144)***one
twice or more

0.04950.0749(0.0332)(0.0390)0.0423-0.0292(0.0228)(0.0315)*0.0354-0.0330(0.0165)(0.0216)

**

*

one
twice or more

0.0641
0.0972(0.0329)(0.0391)***0.0500-0.0303(0.0247)(0.0337)**

0.0621-0.0183(0.0176)(0.0223)***

one
twice or more

0.05830.0608(0.0330)(0.0392)*

0.0497-0.0285(0.0247)(0.0337)**0.0411-0.0518(0.0195)(0.0256)

**
**

one
tiwce or more

-0.0529-0.2103(0.0298)(0.0382)****-0.0606-0.1882(0.0234)(0.0379)******-0.0416-0.1690(0.0218)(0.0315)*****

Having feasible Hope

Having active Hope

Having accompanied Hope

Being happy

Notes: The numbers denote the marginal effect of the probit estimation. Numbers within parentheses denote standard errors. In each estimation, the objective variables inTable 4 and 7 are also included as explanatory variables, namely, the dummy variables for sex, age, years of education, marital status, having children, and having a job.
The reference point for experience with incidents involving major injuries is "no experience."

29

Fig 1. Relationship between Incidents Involving Injuries, Happiness, and Hope
Personal Level of Happiness

Incidents Involving Injuries Occur
Happiness before Incidents
Unhappiness Because of Incidents

Ho Hope

Current Happiness

Past

Happiness Immediately after Incidents
Present
Time30