Presidents’ ForumIstanbul – September, 30 2010

Presentation byAmbrogio BOLLINI
FEM, Industrial Truck Product Group

President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

AGENDA• Economic development Europe• Industrial trucks market Europe• Industrial trucks in 2025

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

EuropeGeographic EU

47 countries

Political EU (union) 27 members
Euro Zone

16 members

NOTE: Three more Countries applied for EUmembership

EurozoneEU Union
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Economic development••••

According IMF (International MonetaryFund) , the recovery is stronger thanearlier anticipated
The projection now expect Global
growth in 2010 to rise close to 4% with
Asia leading the way
In the “Advanced” economies, growthis likely to be slow at 2% in 2010 and2.5% in 2011
In the “Emerging” economies, growthis expected to reach 6% in 2010
NOTE: The Global growth has been supported
by several “stimulus packages” bygovernments more aggressively in “Advanced”
economies

WEO main criteria for classification- per capital income level- export diversification- degree of integration into the global financial system.

Source: IMF20/4

Economic development cont’dGrowth GDPConstant prices (% change)

14,012,010,08,06,05,1

4,5

5,2

4,2
3,04,02,0-0,60,0-2,02005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-4,0-6,0World•

Source: IMF

Euro area

China

Japan

United States

Within “Emerging” economies, China leads the World GDP Growth

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Economic development cont’d

EU Top 5 - GDP Growth rate
Constant prices (% change)

6,04,0%2,00,02000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 E 2011 E 2012 E-2,0-4,0-6,0••Euro area

Forecast

FRANCEITALYSPAIN

UKGERMANY

A moderate and uneven recovery is taking shape across Europe where Germany, France and UK
drive stronger GDP growth
Growth is expected to pick up during 2010/11, but the traditional drivers of the recovery are likely tobe weaker than usual

Sources: OECD, Econstats

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Economic development cont’d

Drivers of recovery
GDP and Economic Sentiment Indicator relation
GDP and Economic Sentiment Indicator (% change)
1,5120110
0,5-0,590

GDP %

ESI index

10080-1,570

60-2,5Q1-2000 Q1-2001 Q1-2002 Q1-2003 Q1-2004 Q1-2005 Q1-2006 Q1-2007 Q1-2008 Q1-2009 Q1-2010

GDP GrowthESI by EU Countries

ESIAugust 201067.9 - 89.6
89.6 - 97.9
97.9 - 99.7
99.7 - 105.6
105.6 - 115.4
N/A

Sources: OECD, Eurostat•••

Fiscal “policies” and “stimulus” packages in EU are rebuilding ESI confidence index but at aslow pace
The ESI improvement is mostly due to higher Industrial and Service confidence rather thanConsumer, Construction and Retail confidence
However the level of uncertainty remains higher (Country deficit, Public debts, Bank credit
restrictions, Euro fluctuation, Unemployment, etc.)
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Economic development cont’dEU Top 5 - Unemployment rate(% total labor force)

20%

1510502000••

Sources: OECD, Econstats

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Euro area

Forecast

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN

UK

2008

2009

2010

2011

GERMANY

Unemployment rate expected substantially stable next year
Euro weakness positive effect on export might help

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Economic development cont’d

EU Top 5 - Annual inflation rate
average consumer prices (% change)

5,04,0%3,02,01,00,0
2000
-1,0

•
•

Sources: OECD, Econstats

2001

2002
2003
Euro area
ITALY

2004

2005
Forecast
SPAIN

2006

2007
2008
FRANCE20092010 E 2011 E 2012 EGERMANY

UK

Confidence level still low mitigates prices increases
Expected below 2% in the Eurozone

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

AGENDA• Economic development Europe• Industrial trucks market Europe• Industrial trucks in 2025

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The Market cont’d

950’000

1.000.000

1.000.000

The WITS Market
by product families

800.000

800.000

600.000

600.000
547’000

2002

2003

2004
WH MAT

Source: WITS2005
CB MAT

2006

2007

2008

2009

A

A

DA

A

DA

A

DA

A

DA

A

DAA

DJM

NJ-

F200.000

O200.000

M400.000

J400.000-2010

Total WITS Market

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The Market cont’dGeographic Europe

The European Market on WITS figuresunits/monthby product family

40.000380’000

30.00030.00020.00020.000
180’000

10.0002003

2004
WH's MAT

Source: WITS

2005

2006
CB's MAT

2007

2008

2009

-Set

Dic

JulGiu

Nov

Jul

Mar

Nov

Jul

Mar

Nov

Jul

Mar

Nov

JulMarNov

JunFeb

Oct

May

Jan

Aug/Sep

2002

Apr

10.000Dec-units/month40.0002010

EU Total

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The Market cont’dGeographic Europe
WITS Classification

West Europe

East Europe

West Europe
AUSTRIABELGIUM
DENMARKGERMANYFRANCEGREAT BRITAIN
ITALY
NETHERLAND
PORTUGALSPAINSWEDENSWITZERLAND

ANDORRAFAROE ISL
FINLANDGIBRALTAR
GREECEHOLY SEE (VATICAN)ICELANDIRELAND
LIECHTENSTEINLUXEMBOURG
MALTA
MONACONORWAYSAN MARINOSVLBRD/JAN MAYEN

ALBANIAARMENIAAZERBAIJANBELARUSBOSNIA-HZ
BULGARIA
CROATIACZECH REP.
ESTONIAGEORGIAHUNGARYKAZAKHSTANKYRGYZSTANLATVIALITHUANIA

EAST EU
MACEDONIAMOLDOVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIAN FEDSLOVAKIASLOVENIATAJIKISTANTURKMENISTANUKRAINEUZBEKISTANSERBIA & MONTENEGRO

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The Market cont’d
WITS - CB Market comparisonGeographic Europe
25.000250.000

Geographic EU
WITS - CB

25.000250.000

Geographic EU
WITS - WH

20.000200.000

20.000200.000

15.000150.000

15.000150.000

10.000100.000

10.000100.000

5.000

50.0005.000

50.000-2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10

WITS m onth

Source: WITS

WITS

-

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10

WITS m onth

WITS

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The Market cont’d
WITS - CB Market comparison

West Europe detail250.000

25.00020.000200.000

20.000200.000

15.000150.000

15.000150.000

10.000100.000

10.000100.000

5.000

50.0005.000

50.00025.000

WEST EUWITS - CB-

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10

WITS m onth

Source: WITS

WITS

250.000

WEST EUWITS - WH-

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10

WITS m onth

WITS

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The Market cont’d
WITS - CB Market comparison

East Europe detail250.000

25.00020.000200.000

20.000200.000

15.000150.000

15.000150.000

10.000100.000

10.000100.000

5.000

50.0005.000

50.00025.000EAST EUWITS - CB-

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10

WITS m onth

Source: WITS

WITS

250.000

EAST EUWITS - WH-

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10WITS m onthWITS

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

The today EU scenario• The GDP growth rate in Q1 was of 0,2% and the latest data seems toconfirm same growth in Q2. In Q3 the growth rate pace might slow-down
due to a number of still open uncertainties• These uncertainties (country deficit, public debts, bank credit restrictions,
euro fluctuation, unemployment, etc.) are somehow affecting Industry andconsumer confidence• In this scenario, the material handling market is growing, since some time,in both East and West Europe and it is expected to continue hopefully at
the same pace despite uncertainties• After major restructuring in almost all mechanical industries, the installedcapacity in EU is reasonably in balance with today growth rate

• Raw material price, significantly decreased in the last years, start toincrease again since some time

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010
Market expectations ……. in EU• The market pick recorded in 2007/8 will not be back shortly• The today market recovery, largely driven by Germany, will continue• Market growth will continue with some small “W shape” as the trend is
expected to remain positive overall• Back to 2006 level by 2012?

The Europe WITS Market40.000?

units/month

30.00020.0002002

Source: WITS

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

O

M

J

2013

DF

S

A

J

N

J

A

M

OM

JDF

S

A

JN

J

A

M

ON
2003

A

M

J

D-J

10.000

2014

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

AGENDA• Economic development Europe• Industrial trucks market Europe• Industrial trucks in 2025

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President Forum – Istanbul September, 30 2010

• Ergonomics and safety will further gain importance and levers will disappear
replaced by finger multifunctional systems• Risks for operators and surrounding environment will likely be eliminated byintegrated active safety systems• High energy density batteries (lithium-Ion or new technologies) and fast chargers
adoption as derivate from car industries• Conventional diesel engines will become virtually obsolete in materials handlingequipment and Hybrids systems will gain importance perhaps adopting bio-dieselengines (but bio-diesel production capacity will be limited)• Electric applications might substitute hydraulic systems within the truck (mastactuation limited to light and simple applications)• Permanent magnets synchronous motors might replace the asynchronous
motors (efficiency)

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