第1期(2006〜2008 年)
最終報告書

風力発電が大量に導入された電力系統の設計と運用

日本語版
独立行政法人 産業技術総合研究所
一般社団法人 日本電機工業会

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Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power

7 1 . (2006L2008 () -9#!,2009 (
Phase One (2006-2008) Final Report
2009

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Hannele Holttinen, VTT, FinlandPeter Meibom, Risø-DTU; Antje Orths, Energinet.dk, Denmark
Frans van Hulle, EWEA
Bernhard Lange, ISET, Germany
Mark O’Malley, UCD, Ireland
Jan Pierik, ECN; Bart Ummels, TU Delft, Netherlands
John Olav Tande, SINTEF, Norway
Ana Estanqueiro, INETI; Manuel Matos INESC, Portugal
Emilio Gomez, University Castilla La Mancha, Spain
Lennart Söder, KTH, Sweden
Goran Strbac, Anser Shakoor, Joño Ricardo, DG&SEE, UK
J. Charles Smith, UWIG, USA Michael Milligan & Erik Ela, NREL, USA

The IEA WIND Task 25, also known as the Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power,
Task 25 of IEA Implementing Agreement on Wind Energy, functions within a framework created by the International Energy
Agency (IEA). Views, findings and publications of IEA WIND Task 25 do not necessarily represent the views or policies of
the IEA Secretariat or of all its individual member countries.
IEA Ŗ{£Ð¢ď 25 rċ` (Wind Task25) Ŗ{ĀŐ
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International Energy Agency, Wind Implementing Agreement, Task 26: “Design and operation of power systems withlarge amounts of wind power” (June 2009) 
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4.4 _jO;j .................................................................................................................................................... 49
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4.5 4[i2¨ÛƚƱŞŧÑÒå ................................................................................................................ 50

4.6 E\4n..................................................................................................................................................... 51
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4.9 E56qNn ............................................................................................................................................. 54
4.10 24jhnP ........................................................................................................................................... 55
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FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission System) 

FACTS

FRT (Fault-Ride-Through)

FRTϮșϋȰ3ΞΆ̒̓ϯ

LOEE (Loss of Energy Expectation)΀ϒċαɂǅÙ

LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation)
LOLP (Loss of Load Probability)ÛϒȰνɂǅÙ
ϒċ΀ˠʺ

LVRT (Low-voltage ride-through)

LVRTϮ˛ÄȰ3ΞΆ̒̓ϯMAE (Mean Absolute Error)Ʈŗ̑Ɛ͡ƤϮ©ʔ͡Ƥ3Ɨƴϯ

MAPE (Mean Absolute Power Error)Ʈŗ̑Ɛϒċ͡ƤϮ͖̠ϒċ3Ĵ͒,4/ Ʈŗϒċ3͡Ƥ©ʔ͡Ƥ3Ɨƴϯ

NMAE (Normalised Mean Absolute Error) Ζƪ4͖̠%ϥċƉαKˁNRMS (Normalised Root-Mean-Square error)
RMS (Root-Mean-Square error)ɠʙĕ%Ʈŗ̑Ɛ͡ƤϮ©ʔ͡Ƥ3Ɨƴɠʙĕ%Ʈŗ¬¥͡ƤϮ©ʔ͡Ƥ3ƗƴϯƮŗ¬¥͡ƤϮ©ʔ͡Ƥ3ƗƴϯSCADA (Supervision Control And Data Acquisition)

Σω˓͌ăǋacm

STATCOM (Static Compensator) ̮Đƺϕɧǁʩđϒċ̈́å̠͂

SVC (Static Var Compensator)

TSO (Transmission System Operator)
WT (Wind Turbine)+ɠʙĕGϯϕɧǁʩđϒċ̈́å̠͂
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G
̂ƴ4Ʊś3©ʔK̋>ĴJ!G-,ϩ/GϮ¼ 8ϯϥċˌϒǦ 1 Ǧ,4ćȨ©ʔ3Ʈŗ͡Ƥ4 10

Ϻ20ϬϮï˨Ɖα3ˎûʺƮŗ¬¥͡Ƥϯ,FăǋSN 1 Ŗś,43͡Ƥ4 10ϬɄʗ,
6

GϮŹ 3ϯnZ͈Ϊ,3ćȨ©ʔ0ξGȼȤ3̍ɍ0DH5Ʈŗ©ʔ͡Ƥ4 MAEϮƮŗ̑Ɛ͡Ƥϯ,4͖ßƉα
3 6.0ϬϮƺ(1)ϯRMSEϮƮŗ¬¥͡Ƥϯ,4 8.9Ϭ,Ɖα0ƐGÙ,3 6.0Ϭ-GϮƺ(2)ϯ3şĴ3˗Ɛˏ©ʔ͡Ƥ4ϥċ3ï˨

GƮŗϒċ0ƐG˗Ɛ͡ƤϮ/J'ϒċα0ƐG͡ƤϯK͊G-nZ͈Ϊ

34Ưνˌϒϒċα0+ 24Ϭ3͡Ƥ0˗ǀGϮ(ƺ 3)ϯ3©ʔ4Ɖα 1,512 MW 3ϥċˌ

ϒ0ξGćȨϮ/J' 13Ϻ37 Ȱνćϯ,3©ʔ,G

ˉ/G©ʔnK̋>ĴJ!G-,E0͡ƤKƖ/G-ɂǅ,G#3ȼþ3Ì4pPl
3«Ì0͊EHȼΤn,4Ʈŗ¬¥͡Ƥ 5.1Ϭ/30Ɛ Ğ̅/̋>ĴJ!
>ĴJ!

3şĴ 4.2Ϭ ˜ˏ/̋3şĴ 3.9Ϭ-/(% (Focken, 2007)

=%©ʔɂν˝/G-̂ƴϩ=GϮ¼ 9 D7 10Ź 3ϯ

¼ 8 Ư´¦ƻ¡ŉƱŖƨŊáĺ¦¤ě,/xķƈÝĵÚ͡Ƥ3ʑƖ϶Ŗś©ʔ3Ʈŗ¬¥͡Ƥ-Ğ_Po3Ʈŗ¬¥͡Ƥ3ĉĴ
pPl3QOp{M 40 Ǧ,ʔƂ%úċ0Ŝ*Ϯúòϵenergy & meteo systemsϯŹ 3Ǆƻ¡ŉƱxķ

ŝå!xķ7i2þÌí

'H4bE@qjō/0sĎ/

pPl3ÌϮNRMSE϶ɨ͋ĕƮŗ¬¥͡Ƥ͖̠ϥċƉα3ϬϯúòϵRohrig, 2005

NRMSE [%]
ćȨ
4 Ȱνć
2 Ȱνć

pPlϮăǋSNî 4 ŖśϯϺ1,000 km
5.7
3.6
2.6

7

ăǋSN 1 Ŗś
Ϻ350 km
6.8
4.7
3.5

¼ 9 xķƈÝ!xķėƨƦ/0Ç¢/

pPl3Ŗśϥċˌϒ3̍ɍ(Krauss et al., 2006)¼ 10 ĔĉxķdNj!ƻ¡ŉƱōĐƨxķ

ŝå*ÌàƼ)/

/2 )3íċnhϮCosmo-DE - Cosmo-EUϯKˁ %pPl3ϥċˌϒ©ʔ3ɨ͋ĕƮŗ¬¥͡Ƥȼþ3 2 Ȱν0) +4Ƕ̓ǕÀˢ+ G(Wessel et al., 2008)ϓ̏ͤȞ3%@0ǐ͉/̗ϒċα4ϥċˌϒ3Ι̃Ȱ3Ʈŗ©ʔ͡Ƥ0Ŝ*A3,͉Ǖ4©ʔ͡Ƥ3ȼŪÙ/J'©ʔ͡Ƥ3ˠʺƋƴξȝ0ƋȂ0ξÑ+G©ßċƉα3ǐGŪ͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡

Ƥ4¢-+#3ç-/Gɴͮ©ʔ3͡Ƥ0ͽŌGūØ3VUcˏǕͺ0DF©ʔ͡Ƥ3ˠʺƋƴξȝ
4WQcξȝ,4/Ì-+¼ 11 0pPl3ϥċˌϒ3ćȨ©ʔ3͡Ƥ3ˠʺƋƴûƧD7WQc

ûƧΎÁȸ̘KˢWQcûƧE3Ū/͡Ƥ©Ǜ¸0Ϟ̝0ʿ+G-JG#3̍ɍϓ̏ͤȞ3%@3ϒċαKŋG©ßċƉαǐ͉0/(+G¼ 11 P4L

Čƻ¡ŉƱxķƈÝƩ/ŐłÕåßϮ͹ȢϵLange et al., 2006ϯ

8

2.1.3 ƻƓŵ¡ϥ΄3̪ċ4Ì5 Cardinal 2006, Gjengedal 2004, Burges et al., 2003 /.,˟˰H+GȼȤ3ϥ΄3μˌ4Îʫ-+̽JH+F±Ǉ4ϒŔBĻʁȝ3ťĒ93̧ǕBăǋǕKß%ϥ΄āˁ,Gį̪GϥċˌϒǦ4ˌϒǦ3 SCADA ˻ʽG¡ŭăǋȥƺ3Ⱦđʩđϒċ3˻ʽ0D(+̃̐Ξˁ0̪Ēˏ0ħčG-į̪,GȾđϒċKƂ3ĉĴBšʑƫ0̔Ƕ%==ˌϒį̪/ϒċ0ΙĒGDă

ǋ%Fˌϒį̪/úċDFÄ

ƂÙ0͖Ƃ%FG-4į̪,Gϥ΄3úċťĕΗƴKăǋG

-0DFȾđϒċúċ3ščʺK˻ʽ%Fcd0ˌϒǦ3ΞΆKÛɧ!G-Aį̪,GŐ

12 0ˢD0Wvq3ŘʵǕKwSZorZcăǋ,}[Gϥ΄3ʩđϒċ3ăǋ0DF`Ƃ̢GŜʙ0Ɛ+ϒŔG

[G-Aį̪,

4ċʺ3ͤȞAį̪,G)3˟˰̍ɍD7ȧź3ϥċˌϒ}bRZo3̌ϨEϩŔ̃̐0ϥċˌϒǦKΙ̃ΞˁG%@04Ì5 FRT D7̃̐ϒŔ3̔Ƕǐ͉,G-ȬE0/(+͍ʧEȧź3[kp]pϮ̃̐Ξˁ͋ąϯ3ÕɨG±Ǉϲϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺKŪƫ0ϩ@D-͒˅+oWϲcPϯ,4ȧ0͒˅H+GŒϮpPlϲGȤ͋3QOp{M0Ɛ+HE3̪ċK͉ɷ+G3Ȥ%/ǧɭ3Ɣí0DFϥ΄3ΞΆKȖņD7ƀƂĕϥċˌϒ0ÀĒȍ0DGȎŮKÄʑ,
G-©ǛHG (Erlich et al., 2006; Gómez-Lazaro et al., 2006; Gómez-Lazaro et al., 2007a)

¼ 12 ¸ĲĆsĎĐ

ƻ¡ŉƱø

¡ñř

(Cardinal & Miller, 2006)Βϒ̃̐,ϒċ̃̐0Ι̃H%ϥċˌϒǦ0͉»Kͣ%Ì36-)nZ3ǫ͉̾»(Energinet, 2004) ,GA3,3ǫ͉̾»,4̃̐Ξˁ̦āˁį̪-/GȾđϒċăǋ-+¸3 6 ˭ϣ,ƄȦH+K͋Ƃ+GH4nZ3̃̐Ξˁ̦ Energinet.dk ͋ƂHorns Rev /.3ʄϥċˌϒǦGΞˁ̦Ƃ@%ñÆˏ/Ù0ƐGϥċˌϒǦúċ3̑Ɛˏ/ăςϥċˌϒǦƂα3úċKʑEDľEHG-ϓ̏ͤȞϥċˌϒǦ3úċKšʑƫ,ăǋ3αK˛Ē©ßċ-+Ëˁ,GD0GšʑƫăǋϥċˌϒǦ3úċɰû3ƂαKͿ+šč/D0GúċťĕΗƴăςŘăǋúċÄʑ0DG̃̐Óͬ
¼ 13 4 6 ˭ϣ3ăǋ3'ȼþ3 4 ˭ϣKˢ%A3,

GľEH%͆ȝ3ăǋKƄȦ% Horns Rev ϥċˌϒǦ3̍ɍK¼ 14 0ˢ (Kristoffersen, 2005)3ŐEǀ͜ϥċˌϒǦúċKΤü0ăǋ,+-JG

9G¼ 13 Ė¤Ʊ¡îĨŵ
ĳŐ4ˌϒį̪/úċϒċ-ĳ˭3Ⱦđɢ̪Kˁ

¼ 14

Horns Rev ƻ¡ŉƱøģż+Ƅϊ0ΡǣHGϒċKˢ¡ķÒťěϓ̏ͤȞ-Ļʁȝăǋ3%@3ăς͖ƂKĵȰ0̽(+(Kristoffersen, 2005)

G

ȧź3ϥċˌϒǦ3ƀƂƴKϩ@G%@3´3͏ɹǧɭ4ϥċˌϒǦ0Gϕɧǁʩđϒċ̈́å̠͂
(SVC)

G

4 STATCOM 3Ëˁ,Gϒċ̃̐K_oG04Ǯ͹]coKšBˌϒKʑE3.'E3úͶKÀ#3%@3ŅϠ4DF͆ώ0/F¢0ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϖƪ0ϩ
˲=%4̬ƽ/şĴ0ɚ͓H+şĴϮÌ5 15Ϭ¸ϯ=%4ϒċ̃̐ƕ͋ɡʷ

G

2.1.4  ƻ¡ŉƱø×/?iKPAqPƾŞŧƝŞžœƿż[kp]p-4Βϒ̕0Ι̃GşĴ0ˌϒǦ0ɷ@EHG͉»KƂ@%A3,

GŨ30+ϥċˌϒǦ0Ȥ%0Ƃ@EH%͉»04̃̐șϋ3ϊ3˛ÄȰΞΆ̒̓ϮLVRTA4șϋȰ3ΞΆ̒̓:
FRT -AĽ5HGϯĸ=HGˌϒɢ43 ˗Ğ˗Ŗ̎3ϊD7
̐-3Ȃ̓KÓ%25/E/
ƂH%]pɰ0==,G˽ŏ3̃̐Ļʁȝ3ɉ»0Ɛ+̃șϋσĦȰνϒŔÄ3͉»D7șϋ¡3ϒŔ̔Ƕ͉»4H=,͖
GϮ¼ 15ϯ=%[kp]p0ʩđϒċăǋ͉»ϮÌ5Ι̃ʧ,ċʺ 0.95ϯ

D7̃̐Ξˁ̦3ĴǜKǊ%,3 SCADA nhȇÍ-(%͉»ĸ=H+

G-A

G͉ͥ0Ǒ+ʙǳ:´3͉»04ϒŔăǋȾđϒċ-Ļʁȝ3ăǋϮÌ5úċťĕΗƴ3ăǋϯ
̐͏Ɍ3%@ɚ͙ʐ>3ˌϒǦn3ȇÍKɷ@EHG-A[kp]p͉»4͖̠H+-

G (Smith et al., 2007)

Gϥ΄0őȾ3ǫ̾ˏ̪ċ(%Τü/˴Ʌ͖ßKµčG-,ʼŕΞΆμŵ+

G=%̃

G

4ϕˏĒˏ

GńˁϥċˌϒǦ0ý̈́å3̋>ĴJ!

+ʗ%H+G

±Ǉ4ϥċˌϒǦ3Ǖ̪ȖņE0ɷ@EHG--/GÌ5ϥ΄3ʵǕKǉɊřˌϒɢ3D/șϋǇ3ɢɗˏǑ˸ǕϮÌ5ǠǕǑ˸ͤΗɢĩǑ˷ϯ0DFΎ*G-

10(%-͉ɷHGį̪Ǖ

G

¼ 15 FRT żĮƖϮ͹ȢϵElektrizitätszwirtschaft, 2006ϯ

2.1.5 ƻ¡ŉƱÔƤ

Ç¢

ŽƜ

ϥċˌϒǦ3ƹ͖phP4Βϒ̘Ǵƾ3phP-ɱ:+˝±Ǉ3ϥċˌϒμˌˁŖ0)αščGáĶ0+3ǚŞęûǊEH+

/

şĴŨ

G#3̩Ȳ04ʓƆđɍWc3ǽúKÀJ

ÏɕƀƂ,ɏʏ))Gĕ˞ʰȢ93ÎźKʑEďċϒċ̃̐3͒˅˹Ƃ0+ĳŒ=%4ˆ,ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉ

ʵ0#HKĆʑ,Gϒʘ3rdB

GϮÌ5 GWEC, 2005; Bird et al., 2003 /.ϯõʿį̪SsY3Ș˹3Ɏ̋>0HE3rdK.īFíH+,ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα3ŖśϮŒóϯǣκʺɹ=(+GϮÌ5pPlBcPϯŨ3«Ì0+ϥċˌϒ3μˌ4Βϒ̕3Ǵƾ

G

4šƿ0ϟ(+

GΒϒ̕3͒˅͗͞į

Ɣí4}bRZoɨƺ0ΤˁHϮ͞įKīǊ͹βͤΡÓ͙HϯǊGşĴ3>μŵHG%@3-cd/ƔíKŴGį̪Ǖ

Gϥ͹ʘ3˟˰4#3SN3¡,ʾŠǝƴǕ0AƣıH/Eϥ͹ʘ.0źŕ.0 MW Z
c3͖ßƔí,G-Ŗʽˏ/˜͊KǊG%@0ǐ͉,ϥċˌϒ3ŜɆˏ/̐͒ˏʵǎK͚ÏG-0Aˁ

G3˟˰̍ɍ4ĳŖśD7Ŗśν3G-,GϮ2.1.1 ƴħʮϯϮÌ5 INEGI, 2002 Kħ

ʮ3-ϯ

2.2 xô0/ƻ¡ŉƱϒɴ̃̐0șϋ
ϖƪ0ϩ

Ʊ¡Şŧ$

ëƳ

(%şĴ#3̍ɍ4Ʊ˽ŏ0Ĩ7]coAϩϡ0/G3%@ϒċ̃̐3ÔϟƴK0ƪ0Ó)ǐ͉Gϥċˌϒ4ϒċ̃̐3Ôϟƴ-đʺ0ǂϙKGϮ¼ 16ϯHE3

ǂϙ04}c3ǂϙAPqc3ǂϙAG

==/hPc\K̥GşĴΖƪ4==/nϮD7nhϯKǂϙ͚Ï˟˰,Ëˁ/H5/E/

%(+̃̐îÆ93ǂϙ0ξG«Ì˟˰4¸3D/ûΰ0˚˕+ûϣG

-,G¸ĲĆƊć,#ƎŷƙíϮ˦

30 û3hPc\ϯϵH4ϥċˌϒ3Ɣí0À(+ťĒǕ-ˠƄǕ̃̐ó,3©ßċ3ĉǀ+-āˁ0Ɛ+.3D0ǂϙG0ξÑGƱś0ûȜGϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ4ϒċ̃̐̶ͯ3©ʔ͡Ƥ/.H=,̌Ϩ+%´3©ʔ͡Ƥ-̋>ĴJ!G-ɀ=ϓ̏ͤȞ3͉ɷϩ=Gϊ0̲ˏ0͐G-4#Hϓ̏ͤȞGSN3_Pdǀþ3̶ͯťĒ0Îź
G-

-,

GE0ϥċˌϒ.3˫ƴƋύ

G

4ûȜ+

G0AƣıH=%_Po3ŖǁBƘŖˏ̲ˏϥ0AǂϙHG3]co4ťĒǕ-ˠƄǕ3šč0ƐùG%@0ϒċ̃̐,āˁHGϓ̏ͤȞ_ycB̚Ŀǧɭ3ςˆ]co0D(+ɹ=Gǫ̾ˏ]co4Ʀş3]co-ˉ/GşĴ

G%@Ʀş30AǂϙHG

11

¼ 16  ƻ¡ŉƱƱ¡Şŧ­&ëƳ1³Ŕ

H4bE@qjƩƝ/ŎŕƶÃƺ*ɆŞĺȺ (Task25) ,4ϒċŀͺ- (%̃̐Ι̃0ξÑGƘǦˏŅϠDFA̃̐îÆ0ξΙGDFŪ/ŅϠKǩ(+ G,ɤ©ßċ-4ȝ˦,ͽãG©ßċϮĻʁȝǑ˸©ßċĻʁȝͤȞϯ3-,¬ɤ©ßċ-4 5Ϻ15 û¸ó0ͽãG©ßċϮ rkl©ßċ̶ͯΑǉ©ßċϯ3-, G¤łfRKOAaKOcnOƾŉƱĨ

ƀņŊƐ¥pīƿϵ3ǂϙ4ϥċˌϒ3ťĒǕ-©ʔ͡Ƥ0D(+ʿGϮȝȰνϺȝȨ3hPc\ϯ,ʃ˕HG34ǉɊřϒʘ.3D0ΞˁH+G

=%ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ0DFˮãȰνBˌϒǦ3ΞΆϮúċťĕΗƴΪûΞΆͽĒÛɧϯKĸ@+rko]koo.ťĕG--,Gϥċˌϒ3ˠƄǕ/E70̃̐3ȧź3

ɑ΅ǕKɨǻG04ϥċˌϒKȧź3͒˅l0̋>Ό?ȥʀ3ûɌD7μˌί͉0/G͏Ɍ
3̍ɍEϥċˌϒ3ǫ̾ˏǂϙ-ξΙGϮǫ̾ˏϯ]coK˜G-,GϒċƦş,4ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ0DFPvc]coϩ/Gʼŕ3ƦşVrd.3D0ϥċ3ʿˀ̦0ǂϙGAûɌGǐ͉GŉƱ2N:CqϵH4zZ̶ͯʶɿ,ˮã,G̗Í̏α3-,GϮȝƯ3hPc\ϯ̃̐

3NnVa4̃̐3ϕˏʶǞ0ξÑGǐ͉-HGˌϒƉα3͊˯04̃̐3̶ͯϓ͉/E70ˌϒ
rko3̔Ƕ˻ʽ3ǐ͉Ǖĸ=HGϮÔϟƴnhϯNnVa3͚Ï0ËJHGŜʙ04ÛϒȰνɂǅÙ
(LOLE)ϒċ΀ˠʺ (LOLP)΀ϒċαɂǅÙ (LOEE) ˷ĸ=HGŅϠ-/G34ξÑGzZ̶ͯʶɿ0Gϥċˌϒ3ύĴĕH%ƉαZbkoKŖʽˏûȜBΙ̘̃3ǂϙK̥ǡ+Τü0͚Ï
G-,GV/ϮϥċˌϒǦ0Ê͖HGϯƉα3Ūϒċʹ̻͖ßAΪ3ϒċ̃̐,ËJHG

D0/(+F]co˵ªċú+%şĴϒċ3NnVa0ŪǂϙKGį̪Ǖ

G

ƚƱ2N:Cq¤łϮȝȰνϺȝƯ3hPc\ϯϵϥċˌϒΒϒ̘0Ĩ<ǂϙ4ϓ͉Ŗ0ƐGϥċˌϒǦ3˲ŖʶɿD7ϥċˌϒ3úċ-̶ͯʋͶ3˗ξ0D(+ɹ=Gϥċˌϒ4̃̐3ʢʈ0ǂϙ
Kʢʈ3ȥĶťĕ%FϒċȎŮBoskZ3ʶɿťĕ%FGşĴKȼŪς0ʇˁGǧɭ4==,ˌϒǦ3úċăǋKˁşĴA
͉,Gȧź3Βϒ̘

FÌ5UPǚŞϮʓƴ̶ͯϯKāˁ%FFACTS BϥċG-,GΒϒNnVaK̔ǶG04ϒċ̃̐3̈́ƿǐ͉0/GGϒċ̃̐šƿ3ǐ͉ǕKɹƂGϊ04ƂƪʶǞ3̶ͯʢʈD7Ēˏ/̃̐ƀƂƴ3ûɌǐGŞŧÑÒåϮȝ˦Ϻȝû3hPc\ϯϵϥ΄3˭ϣ0D(+ăǋ3ʵǎ4ˉ/G%@ΖƪΞΆȰ

D7̃̐șϋȰ0̃̐K_o,Gį̪ǕA#H$HťJ(+GDFñÆˏ0͐5H4ϒŔϒ
ċăǋ/E70 FRT ̪ċ0ξÑ+Gϓ͉Ŗ0Ɛ+ϥċˌϒǦ.0˲Ŗ+GA3ŅϠ0ǂϙ

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Òϵ3͏Ɍ3ćȇɉ»4ξΙaqU0ξ+4nZ3SsYǤˈʰȢÏɕ0ξ+4 IEA
3 “World Energy Outlook” 0Ŝ*+GşϵɆ˟˰,4Βϒ̕3ΞˁϗKͤɒ+˟˰/H+/H4ɹƂˏ/ǃĉKɍ%%@ʼŕE0͝

G

3.5.3 Nn`q>ǄĜƔó

Ç¢(Lund & Münster, 2006) ,4]bRsa (CHP) -ϥċˌϒ3ɱʺ3ϩ

ϒċ̃̐3ɑ΅ǕKϩ@GǄEˁ

%n “EnergyPLAN” 4nZ͈Ϊ

D7Ėɥ3´3ϒċ̃̐3ɹƂͦˏɡȓ3%@3íúċn,FnZ͈Ϊ3ÏɕPh{RPG%@3ʯ}-ϒɴP3̪ċK͚Ï+c-/(+ϩ

Gʵ0íċGϥċˌϒúċϒċʋͶK 20Ϭ¸ŋGşĴɑ΅Ǖ93Ǯ͹3Ƅ̽į̪Ǖ-ȬE0H+G
25

¼ 24 ĊıƋ

ģò¼

3.6 E56qNn
3.6.1 ðżx¡ (Elforsk 2005)
Å·ĒϵcQRn3 4,000MW ϥċ (Axelsson et al., 2005)
ťěϵ̍ɍKŹ 8 0ˢ3ŞĺȺ43ǐ͉/©ßċKϩG-,ȧź3ϒʘƉαKʗ%-,GK͚Ï%A3,A©ßċ3āˁš0DG]coK͚Ï%A3,A/

,4ʠŕˏ/oskZʶɿ.3˫ƴ̍ɍ0ǂϙGK͊˯G%@cQRn3==/Ŗś0ξ+ĵ͒˺ȥ
ʀˁ

EH+

G
Ź 8 E56qNn³ŔH4bE@qjϥċˌϒ͖ß
Ɖα
MW
4000
6000
8000
NqH

³Ŕ

ƻ¡

Øł

,#

x¡Ʃðżx¡Ç

ťě

Ɣíʺ
Ϭ

1 ȰνɠʙÚƤMW (%)

4 ȰνɠʙÚƤMW (%)

ćȨȥȼŪ MW(%)ćȨ
ȥȼŪ MW (%)

6.6
9.9
13.2

20 (0.5)40 (0.75)
80 (1.0)

195 (5.0)––––––

690 (17.2)
1350 (22.5)
1570 (19.6)

590 (14.8)1030 (17.2)
1220 (15.2)

¡ƻ¡dNin?ϵϥċˌϒ3íċnh41996Ϻ2001 Ư3ĴǣȰ̃ýnh0Ŝ*A3,̶ͯnhAĵɟ,Gāˁį̪/ 2002Ϻ2004 Ư3̶ͯ©ʔ0DH5˝ɂ©ʔϮ1Ϻ24 Ȱνϯ0ƐƮŗ¬¥©ʔ͡Ƥ4 1.5Ϭ1 Κνć3©ʔ0Ɛ̄ 5Ϭ-/(+Gϥċˌϒ3úċ©ʔ,4ťĒ 1 Ȱνć3Ƕ̓Ǖ3 80Ϭ0/GϮƔíƉα3 1.8%E 1.4%9ϯ-¹Ƃ%4 Ȱνć,4pPl-ĵ˫ƴ3©ʔ͡ƤKˁ%Ϯ͖ßƉα3 2.5ϬϯćȨ0ξ+4pPl3nh3͋ɡKcQRn0ĴD0ͤȞ%
Ċıϵ1 Ȱν©ʔD7 4 Ȱν©ʔ0ξG͒˺ȥʀ4ϥċˌϒ3©ʔį̪ǕK̥ǡ%ʧKσ53.4.1

ƴ3şĴ-ĵ,
ʀKΤˁ+

G (Holttinen, 2004)ˇǜ:--+Ź 7 3GćȨ©ʔ0ξ+43.7.1 ƴ3ȥʀ (Dena, 2005) Kˁ

3©ʔį̪ǕϣÁ+ɠʙÚƤ

44 σ Kˁ%ˠʺˏȥ

pPl-cQRn,ϥċˌϒ

G-¹Ƃ+pPl3̍ɍ3͋ɡKcQRn0ĴD0ͤȞ%3Şĺ

(Axelsson et al., 2005),4Dena 3̍ɍ3Ëˁ0ξ+ cQRn3ȝŹ4#Eς-͊/-,GcQRn3şĴ,AHE3ȝŹ4ƿϥɿ,3ʵĀ/͉ɷ0ξΙ+
-ΐ:+

G
26

Gʧ0ʃǜ:,G

3.6.2 ðżx¡ (SvK2008)
Å·ĒϵLarge scale expansion of wind power  Consequences for the transmission grid and need of regulation power(Svenska kraftnät, 2008)ťěϵǐ͉/ͤȞ͹ʘ3αK(Axelsson et al., 2005) 3Şĺ0Ŝ*̀0ˢ%α4´3ŞĺDFAϩ/(+Ź 9 E56qNn

Gʧ0ˇǜH%+͒˺%#3̍ɍK̀ 9 0ˢ3

#3ʽ˃K¸0͢ȬG/ƻ¡ŉƱ 4,000ǆ12,000 MW ðżƙ¢x¡ϥċˌϒ 4,000 MW
200 250 MW©ßċ3˭ϣ
ɤ©ßċ3Αčϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡ƤK̈́åG30
ǐ͉/Αč©ßċȷϥϑć̘,ϥċˌϒ3ÛɧK
̈́åG30ǐ͉/Αč©ßċǐ͉/Αč©ßċ3Ĵ͒ϥċˌϒ 12,000 MW
600 750 MW

500

600 MW

1,500

1,900 MW700

900 MW

2,200

2,700 MW

1,400

1,800 MW

4,300

5,300 MWdNj¦ϵ(Axelsson et al., 2005) ,ËˁH%nh-ɱΈɚ͓%Ȥ͋nh4/

¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱ3̍ɍ4͏ήBȥʀ0D(+̸ˉ/(+ĊıϵΑčGɤ©ßċ3͒˺ȥʀ4ɤ3-F,ɰȰťĒ (MW) 3šč 3ȝŹKˁƴščGKˢ%A3,

GG,4 (Axelsson et al., 2005) 3ŞĺE

ȼŪ

GH4 1 Ȱν,ɨļ̶ͯϮ̶ͯ-ϥċˌϒ3Ƥϯ3ťĒ.3˫

+Gϥċˌϒ 6,000 MW -

34ɨļ̶ͯšč3ȼŪÙ 2,383 MW E 2,582

MW 9- 199 MW Ū/F=%ɨļ̶ͯʑƖ3ȼŪÙ –1,331 MW E –1,883 MW 9- 552 MW Ū/G-Kˢ3şĴɨͯ3

3ƮŗÙ4 (199 + 552) / 2 = 375.5 MW -/GǛƂ%ˌϒȼŪťĕ

 6,000 MW 3 90Ϭ/J' 5,400 MW ,
ɤ03 90Ϭˌϒ - 7Ϭ KˁGşĴ ȼŪÙ3ťĕ

4ǛƂ%ˌϒ3 7Ϭ-/G+Αčˏɤ©ßċ3ςK͒˺G-0.07 × 4,000 × 0.09 = 250

D7 0.07 × 12,000 × 0.09 = 750 -/GÄˌϒ3ȥ4͒˺ȥʀ3ˠƄǕ3ȄƂÙ0Ŝ*͖ƂHGϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ3̈́å0ǐ͉/Αč©ßċ 4(Axelsson et al., 2005) 3Şĺ0Ŝ*ϥċˌϒ 4,000 MW 0Ɛ ćȨ3ȼŪͯȥĶ©ʔ4 590 MW ćȨ3ȼŪɨȥĶ

+F3şĴ©ʔ4 690 MW ,G#3Ʈŗ4 640 MW ,H4 4,000 MW 3 16Ϭ0˗ǀGȄƂ% 4,000 MW 3 90Ϭ,4ćȨ©ʔ͡Ƥ 0.90 × 0.16 × 4,000 = 576 MW &--0/GϮ̀3 500Ϻ600 MWϯϥċˌϒ 12,000 MW 3

şĴ0AH-ĵȥʀΤˁH12,000 MW 3 90Ϭ,4ƮŗćȨ©ʔ͡Ƥ 0.90 × 0.16 × 12,000 = 1,728
MW -/GϮ̀,4 1,500Ϻ1,900 MWϯϥċˌϒ3Í̏Ûɧ3̈́å0ǐ͉/Αč©ßċ
90Ϭ-¹ƂG-H0ǀ+4=E/4¸3͒˺0DFȄƂHGϩ

şĴ4ˌϒ3 25Ϭ0ǂϙGį̪Ǖ

ɧ4#H$H 0.25 × 0.09 × 4,000 = 900 MW0.25 × 0.90 × 12,000 = 2,700 MW -/GÄʀ3ˠƄǕKǛƂ+Ƃ@+MW -++Gĵͦȡ,4̍ɍGϥċˌϒ 4,000 MW 3%@0ΑčGɤ©ßċK (Svenska kraftnät, 2008) 4 250

G(Axelsson et al., 2005) ,4 20 MW -+ˉ/GȥʀͦKˁ

ˌϒ3ȥ4͒˺ȥGĊıƩ/AcnOϵɆŞĺȺ,4 (Axelsson et al., 2005) 3nh-̍ɍKˁKĀ3ȥʀ,͏ή+ȥ3ˌϒKG#3̍ɍ-+3Í̏Û

+

GE,

GH4ˉ/GnhKˁG úċščG©ßċ+KˠÓG-4ɝ+GE,4/
úċKʑƖ!

G©ßċ DFAŎϐ,G%@¸0 ɨļ̶ͯ3šč 3©ßċ3ȥĶǕ3>Kˢ(Svenska kraftnät, 2008)4ŜɆˏnh-+ɰȰν3ȼŪ̶ͯťĕ

-+

Kˁ

+Fɤ©ßċK͊˯GşĴ,A˦KhPc\

Gˇǜ:--+ϥċˌϒ/H5ɰȰ3ȼŪ̶ͯťĒ+ 2,383 MW -/FcQ

Rn0Gǐ͉/ɤ©ßċ 235 MW 0/Gϥċˌϒ 4,000 MW ,4 ɰȰȼŪɨļ̶ͯ + 199 MWščH4 199 / 2383 = 8.35 MW 3šč0˗ǀGǐ͉-HGɤ©ßċ ɰȰȼŪɨļ̶ͯťĒ 0
ƣıHG3,0ϖƪ0ΎÙ,H5ɤ©ßċ3ǐ͉α4 8.35Ϭ/J' 21MW ščGH4 (Axelsson et al., 2005) ϯϯG)=Fǐ͉α 250 MW 0/GD/ȥʀKˁ%şĴHE3©ßċK̸Οƕ͚ÏG-0/Gϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡ƤK̈́30ǐ͉/Αč©ßċ 0)27+ǐ͉/Αčû4ćȨ©ʔ͡Ƥ0Ŝ*+GÂ©ʔ̂ƴƂȰν0Ύ*0)Hϩ/Gʧ0ˇǜ:,Gϒċ̃̐,̔Ƕ:©ßċK«ć0͒˅úċťĕΗƴK©ʔ͡Ƥ0ͽŌGPvc0ΑψGDˇǜ/H5/E/
̃̐,AȼAΝ;<.3ˌϒǦ,ȝȰν,ͽĒG-,GcQRnD7Ėɥ3ϒċ̃̐,4©

ßċ4¢0ɵċˌϒǦ3ϒċ,H4ȝ˦3'0ϕɧʶǞE{ˮã!G-,GʴʽˏÝϗϮ̃
̐0

ý+

ν©ʔ

G

Gęû/ƉαϯEH5ί͉/34 24 Ȱν3©ʔ͡Ƥ,4/Ũ3ϒċ̃̐3şĴ 3 Ȱ
4cQRnϴĖɥ3ϒċ̃̐3şĴ 1 Ȱν©ʔ,
24 Ȱν©ʔ͡ƤKˁ͍αϯǐ͉-HGʴʽˏ MW b3ȄƂ0ˁ

ʧE4ί͉&ϮćȨƦşŧ,īƻ/H5/E/
-4,/

G24 Ȱν3©ʔ͡Ƥ4Ʀş-G%şĴǐ͉-HG©ʔ͡Ƥ3©ßċKΟĈ0͊˯AG-0/GΑč©ßċ0ξ+ȷϥϑć̘0Gϥċˌϒ3Í̏ÛɧK̈́%@(Axelsson et al., 2005) 4͆ȝ3şǦ
3ϥΗD7ʵƂ3ϥċˌϒǦnϮVkoNQoϥΗ 25m/sϯKŜɆˏnh-+Ëˁ+̍ɍˏ0ʿGΙ3ϥċˌϒ0+Aȷϥϑć̘0ƣıHGÍ̏ÛɧK̥ǡ+2008) ,425Ϭ3Í̏ÛɧK¹Ƃ+.,G(Svenska kraftnät,Gǀʫ/Eˌϒϒċ 25ϬʑƖGį̪Ǖ4

.3˫ƴ3Ϟƴ,ˌʿGB#3©ʔ̂ƴ4.3Ã=%#Hǐ͉/G(SMHI, 2004) ,4 (Axelsson et al., 2005) ,ˁEH+GŅϠ4#HΑč©ßċGnhKȇˢ+

͒0DH56 Ȱν¸ó0Ɖα 50ϬŇŮGį̪Ǖ4Ʈŗ+Ư0ƴ,G)=FKǜļG3

G#,4 ̐G -+G)=F25Ϭ3ƉαKŇŮG04 2Ϻ3 ȰνFH4#EƯ0 1Ϻ4 ŋˌʿG)=F3ϒċ3ʑƖ3̈́å0
4ęû/úċťĕΗƴKß%ˌϒǦKΙ̃/H5/E/
4ȷϥϑć̘3ϊ3Í̏Ûɧ©ʔKˁ

Gį̪ǕKɚ͓+

-0/G(Svenska kraftnät, 2008) ,/%@2Ϻ3 Ȱνó0ʿGťĒϮȷϥϑć̘3ϊ3Í̏ÛɧϯK̈́åG0424 Ȱν3ťĒϮϥċˌϒ©ʔ͡Ƥ3̈́åϯ0ǐ͉-HGDFAŨ3©ßċǐ͉0/Gʧ0ˇǜǐ͉,G3©ʔK̥ǡ/H5ȷϥϑć̘0ͽŌGÍ̏Ûɧ3˻ʽ

0ǐ͉/©ßċKΟŪ͚ÏG-0/GΑč©ßċ3̗ǐ͉α 0ξG̍ɍ43 ˭ϣ3©ßċKΑčG-,ǊG-,G3´3 2 )3©ßċ4Ā3ϒʘ,ˁǜH+

GJ,4/%@ϖƪ0ƿ˗ξG-0ˇǜ/H5/E/

ĵ3ϒʘ, 3 Ȱνó0ˌʿǊGťĒ0Ɛ+bK̔ǶG34Ĵʽˏ,4/=%ĵȰ0Ā
3ϒʘ, 24 ȰνǇ0ˌʿǊGťĒ0Ɛ+bK̔ǶG3AĴʽˏ,4/)=FHE3©ßċKΑčGȥʀ0D(+4ǐ͉-HG©ßċKΟŪ͚ÏG-0/G
3.2 ś,ΐ:%D0ϥċˌϒ3úċϩ
4´3ϒʘ4ˮĒ+ʶɿ/J'ϥċˌϒ3úċKʑƖ,Gį̪Ǖ3/ Ϯ̶ͯ3ŪΪûϥċˌϒ,͸JH+

Gʶɿ,G%@ϯ/J'ϥċˌϒúċʑƖȰ

B̶ͯščȰ4HE3ϒʘ4úċKšč!G-,GE0ĵɟ0Ä̶ͯʶɿ,3̶ͯ3šč0ƐǑG%@3ϒʘKͽĒ,G%@ϥċˌϒ3úċʑƖK̈́åG30ǐ͉/©ßċ0D(+ϥċˌϒ3ú
ċÄ0ǐ͉/©ßċāˁį̪,G-Aǀ%Fć,-#3āˁį̪Ǖ-3ξΙ3ͤɒ4+E

G(Svenska kraftnät, 2008) 4ǐ͉-HG©ßċ

±Ǉ4̃̐3E0͝ŞĺȺ,4̃̐Ξˁ̦zZ̶ͯƉα0Ɛ+ʼŕȕǨ(+#EƯνȝȰνËˁGɑ΅Ǖ3K͚Ï+˟˰ǐ͉,G MW

G

%F3]coϮϒʘƉαD7G̶ͯ3]coϯ-©ßċ3Ĵ͒ÙK¥%Ù-+©ßċ3̗]coG#3̍ɍ©ßċ3̗αKΟŪ͚ÏG-0/G%@]coAΟĈ0͚Ï+=HE3©ßċϒʘ0ÇE3ϮzZ̶ͯƉα-+3ϯ ̈́Ďβ ǐ͉ķ4HE3ÏɕƦş,.3D0͖ƂH+/

G0ƣıHGʼŕcQRn,4ΞΆ©ßċƉα0ƐGƐÏ4üȕǨJH+

3.6.3 ƻ¡ŉƱġŴ$

4nUhnEAEO

Å·Ēϵ“A massive introduction of wind power. Changed market conditions?” (Neimane & Carlsson, 2008)
ťěϵ3ŞĺȺ,4ĳ3ˌϒ0Ɛϓ̏ͤȞ3ͳ¼Kͯ 8 )3Ʀşħč̦K͖Ƃ%HE3ħč
̦PvcKʿ!%şĴȥϴȥͤȞÏɕKȕǨ-0/GHE3ħč̦04͋ɡ3΢G=%ǦȾ+

GQOp{MAύ¡ř,(%FûȜř,(%FG3˟˰,4Ūα3ϥċˌϒƔíHGƓɊ3aqU-+HEƦşħč̦3Pvc]coKȄƂ+G#3̍

ɍK¼ 25 0ˢ3Ő0Fϥċˌ+ Elbas 4Ƅϊ3ϒċÍ̏3 1 Ȱνć0ΖĺK̙@üGǀȨƦş,ϒ 2006 Ư-ɱΈ+ 4,000 MW ščG-¹Ƃ+G)=FPvc4Ĵ͒,Ưν 0.95 TWh E 1.7

TWh 0ščG-0/G
28

¼ 25 xķƈÝ

AEO

ĮƖ

a) 2006 Ư3Ʀşb) ±Ǉ3Ʀşc) Elbas 3̍ɍKčļ%±Ǉ3Ʀş
1 cQRnZs϶0.1 ¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱ

dNin?ϵ3˟˰,42006 Ư 9 Ƚ 11 ȨE 2007 Ư 3 Ƚ 31 Ȩ=,3 Hornz RevϥċˌϒǦϮ160MWϯ3nh0G©ʔ͡ƤKËˁ%3nh,4ςƂˏ/©ʔ͡Ƥ3˗ξ̥ǡ
GͤȞÏɕ4 2006 Ư3βϡKˁ

H+

+

G

Ċıϵ©ʔ͡Ƥ3]co3͒˺04nZ3 Risø ˟˰Ǧ3 Klaus Skytte μˌ%ÏɕnKËˁ%3n42006 Ư3ƦşʶɿKȄƂ%whKˁ3ɨ͋ûƧKˁvc]co-4ˉ/GƦşξÑ̦ν,ȕǨJH%βϡ,co3ščKǜļG-0/E/

3.6.4 x¡+Gî+3ξÑ̦3©ʔ͡ƤKSZe%Ưν3¦ȝ-+͒˺G-,ξÑ̦3©ʔ͡ƤK͒˺G-,%ÂPŅƤ

ʧ0ʃǜ:,FPvc]co3šč̮Ēˏ0̗]GÇ¢Å·ĒϵFuture trading with regulating power, (Brandberg & Broman, 2007)
ťěϵ3˟˰3˕ˏ4Ėɥ3ͤȞϒċƦşcQRn3 4,000MW ϥċ0.ĩǑGKȁG,G2 )3ȥʀKˁ%3˟˰3̍ɍ4¸3ΖF,

4,000MW
ȥʀ 1
3.566
4,010

ϥċˌϒ/
ͤȞϒċ [GWh]Elbas 3̗īƻα[GWh]
NqH

G

2,279
2,490

4,000MW
ȥʀ 2
2,680
–––

¡ϵϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα 2,400MW 3nZ͈Ϊ3ϒċ̃̐0ξG 2003 Ư3nhKˁ3nh4 24 ȰνD7 4 Ȱν©ʔ-Ƅϊ3ϥċˌϒ3ÙKˁ

+

%

G

ĊıϵͤȞƦşÏɕ93ǂϙKȁG%@ϥċ3©ʔ͡Ƥ3ǂϙKͤɒ%ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡ƤKΟĦ3ͤȞα0čȤ%/ͤȞϒċα0ʙȤ%/ÏɕKȄƂ%ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ4¸3 2 )3ȥʀ
,͊˯A(+
1.

G©ʔ͡ƤK͒˺#3̍ɍKɡȓ+ϥċ3͖ßƉα 4,000 MW ĩȮHGD0%24 Ȱν©ʔ͡ƤKˁ

2.

+Elbas Ʀş,3ͤȞċ3ščK͊˯FͤȞϒċ3šč3 4 Ȱν©ʔK̽(%ΞˁȰνć3Ȱν-ΞˁȰν¡-3ν3ˌϒ3ťĕ0ξG©ʔ͡ƤK͖ƂG-,©ʔ͡ƤK͒˺%nZ3nh0ξ+3©ʔ͡ƤK͒˺#3̍ɍK 4,000 MW ˁ0ɡ
ȓ%

3.6.5 į¡ŉƱ¤ł

Å·ĒϵIntegration study of small amounts of wind power in the power system (Söder, 1994).
ťěϵcQRn3Ưν̄ 2Ϻ2.5 TWh 3ϥċˌϒ3͖̠4cQRn3ɵċˌϒ̃̐3đʺ0ǂϙ/Ưν3ϥċˌϒ 4Ϻ5 TWh 3şĴɵċˌϒ̃̐3đʺÄK̈́%@ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα4̄ 1Ϭ
29

šč!Gǐ͉GƯν3ϥċˌϒ̄ 6.5Ϻ7.5 TWh ,ȝŹ4DFŪ͋ɡ/͏Ɍ0DFɚ͙Gǐ͉
¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱŜ*+H5̄ 1.2Ϭ3̈́åǐ͉0/G3

G

dNin?ϵŨ3ˌϒúċ3Ȱ̃ýnh4ˠʺˏ0ʿǣ%ϥΗ3©ʔ͡Ƥ0G

ĊıϵˌϒǦ3đʺǕKĸ@%̉͝/nKˁ
KcQRnîÆ0Τˁ,GDɡȓH+©ʔ͡Ƥ0Ŝ*A3-% Ι̃]coSsY̈́JH++6-)3ɻƠ,ϥċˌϒ3ϓ̏ͤȞ̽JH#3̍ɍ
G͒˅˹Ƃ4ɹƂͦˏ0̽(%#3̍ɍ4ˠʺͦˏ/4ǐ͉-HGΑčϒċα (MW) -+͒˺HȎŮ%ɵċGϥċˌϒ3ƮŗÙ3ščK̈́%@0Κɰ3̶ͯKšB%̶ͯ-ϥċ3ˠƄǕḀǡH+F͚ÏǤˈɢ̪//G=,ϥċˌϒKšč!%͚Ïco4Ź 2 3ΖF,GÒϵāˁį̪/A33'ȼΤ/ϥΗ©ʔϮ1994 ƯϯKāˁį̪/A3-¹Ƃ%Ȥ%0ÕɨH%ϥΗ
©ʔK̥ǡG%@ɵċˌϒǦ3c\b4ɰȰ̽JHGA3-ǛƂH+
NZecǛƂH+Gϒċ̃̐93Ɓî/G/J'ăς/100ϬϟG-,G-͊/HGşϵcQRn3î+3ϥċˌϒ4cQRn3ɵċˌϒ3>,ϓ̏ͤȞHG-¹Ƃ+Ύό3̃̐D7ʤċˌϒ-3ϒċīƻ4ť,

G-¹Ƃ+

0ξG˟˰̍ɍKç0cQRnîÆɡȓH+

G=%

GcQRn3Ϊûˏ/ƕ͋ɡϒċ̃̐

Gϒɴ̃̐3ȎŮ0ξG̍ɍ4̥ǡ+/

3.7 P4L
pPl3SsYɢξ DENA 42020 Ư=,3pPl3τD7ʄϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃͒˅ ϮDENA

̃̐˟˰ϯKŶ͔%3˟˰3˕ˏ4ϥċSsY̃̐D7ǉɊřˌϒǦ3Ĝ¾B½ɛ3ȕȌKº/EŜɆˏκɂˏSsY̌ʐ͒˅KƄʼ!G-,(%200720102015 D7 2020 Ư3õʿį̪SsYϒʘ3āˁKÒΛGaqU,4ϥċˌϒKʵƂ3
̃̐0ĉǀ+G-,τD7ʄϥċˌϒ3μˌ0ξ+Ŗʽˏ/ƤĀĕK͒(+U0Ŝ*Βϒ̃̐D7ǉɊřˌϒǦ0ƐGϥċˌϒ3Ɣí3ǂϙKͤɒ+GHE3aq

GɆ˟˰3̍ɍEŪα3ϥċˌϒ3Ɣí0DFpPl3ˌϒ0Ġ@Gõʿį̪SsY3ĉĴK͒˅Ζ
F 20Ϭ¸0,Gį̪ǕˢH%Â#3ćȇɉ»4Βϒ̃̐3μˌ0ξ+3˟˰ˢ%ŜʙKΤˁG-,

G3ϥċˌϒ4pPlΙΩȘƳΝ-A 2020 Ư=,3ΡǣK˕Ƿ+J'pPl3ϒċÍ̏0Ġ@Gõʿį̪SsY3ĉĴK 20Ϭ0G-

G˕ɠ/

˕ɠ0ɾ(%A3,GɆ˟

˰3Ɏ̋>ó,Ńį̪/-4ȧź3ϒċ̃̐0DGˌϒ3̄ 20ϬKõʿį̪SsYϒʘϮ5ϬKʄϥċˌϒ7.5ϬKτϥċˌϒ7.5ϬK´3õʿį̪SsYϒʘϯĠ@GD0G%@3ǫ̾ˏ͏ɹ˹
Kɚ͓G-,G2015 Ư¸ρ0͒˅H+

GD0Ŗʽˏ0pPlĖΪ0ύ¡+ǦKE0Ūƫ0šB04±DFAŪ͋ɡ/ͤɒK̽GʄϥċˌϒƄ̽į̪/ǫ̾ˏ͏ɹ˹Kƙμ+-ǐ͉-HG
Ɇ˳,4DENA 3̃̐ͤɒ3̍ɍD7ϓ̏ͤȞ3rd0ξGͤɒ0Ŝ*μˌ}bRZoKɆ˳,͢ȬG=%̃̐-NnVa0ξG˟˰̍ɍKɤ˳¸ρ,ΐ:G

3.7.1 DENA Ŏŕǂx¡ťěϵϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ4ƪ0ϓ̏vcˠƄ0Ó%HGD0ͤȞċƉα-©ßċƉα3šƿǐ͉,G-Kˢł+Gϥċˌϒ3©ʔį̪Ǖ3Ȗņ͊Ό=H+©ßċƉα4ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉαš0)HδFĴ

Gǐ͉-HGͤȞċƉα-0ščGϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGͤȞƉαD7©

ßċƉα4©ʔH%ϥċˌϒ3úċ0D(+ɹ=G%@̣Ȩ0ǐ͉-HGͤȞƉαD7©ßċƉα4 ȼΤĕ

3͍ʧE30Ŝ*

7©ßċƉα,GͤȞƉαǐ͉-/GşĴ4ȧź3ǉɊřˌϒǦEǊG-,GÂˌϒǦ+ɹƂHG-0/GHćȨƮŗͤȞƉαD

4ǐ͉-HGȼŪ3ͤȞƉαD7©ßċƉαKƪ0ȇÍ,GD0G%@ύ¡ˏ0ά̠/H5/
E/

2015 Ư0ξ+͐5 Αč:ɨ3ͤȞƉαD7©ßċƉα4ȼŪ 7,064 MW ,ˌϒƉα3 9ϬϯK ćȨ 0ů̄/H5/E/
30

F3'Ʈŗ 3,229 MWϮϥċ/2003 Ư4ȼŪ 2,077 MWƮŗ 1,178

MW ,

G

 Αč:ͯ3ͤȞƉαD7ϴ©ßċƉα4ȼŪ 5,480 MW ,ċˌϒƉα3 8ϬϯK ćȨ 0ů̄/H5/E/
MW ,F3'Ʈŗ 2,822 MWϮϥ/2003 Ư4ȼŪ 1,871 MWƮŗ 753

G
dNin?ϵ1992 ƯE 2003 Ư=,3pPl3ħʮŖʧKVvG 10 km2 SN

¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱ

3 220 3ʔƂŖʧE3ϥΗ-ϥĶKϩƴ 10 m30 m50 m 3Ŗʧ,_}[o 10 Hz 3ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ýKˁ+7 Ưνû3 5 ûνω3ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ýK͒˺%

Ċıϵǐ͉/ͤȞƉαD7©ßċ3͒˺,4ϥċˌϒúċ3©ʔ͡Ƥ3ˠʺûƧD7̶ͯϓ͉3©ʔ͡Ƥ3ˠʺûƧK̥ǡ%ˠʺͦˏ/ˌϒǦ3Í̏Ûɧ0DGϒċ΀3ˠʺûƧ-ð0ϒċ̃̐3ϒċ΀
D7ΟĈ3ˠʺûƧKƔú%3ˠʺûƧ4ǐ͉-HGͤȞƉαD7©ßċ3ȇÍK͒˺G%@
3íċwh,GϮ͒˺4 1 ƯνûKƄ̽+Òϵϥċˌϒ3ćȨ©ʔKˁ

GϯΞˁȰν0˖ć3ȹȤ4̽J/τ 90 mʄ 100 m2015 Ư0)

A3-G2010 Ư3u|ϩ3¹Ƃ4

+4τ 100m ʄ 110m -%2003 Ư2007 Ư2010 ƯD7 2015 Ư3ćȨD7 4 Ȱνć©ʔ͡Ƥ3ûƧ3¢͉/ȝŹKŹ 10 0ˢÖ3ů̄Ęś0ξGɨ-ͯ3ͤȞƉα/E70©ßċƉα3΀ˠʺ-+ 0.1ϬϮƯν̄ 8.76 ȰνϯK͊ΌL&΀ˠʺ 0.01ϬϮƯν̄ 52 ûϯ- 0.0025ϬϮƯν̄ 13 ûϯ,ǝƴûɌK̽(%ϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGͤȞƉαD7©ßċΑč3ǐ͉Ǖ0Ɛ+3΀ˠʺĨ<%ǂϙ42003 ƯE 2015 Ư=,0͖̠H%ϥ
΄3͖ßƉα3ǂϙ-ɱ:+ςƂˏ,(%Ź 10 2003ǆ2015 âƮŗ
2003–0.28%

2015–0.32%

3.7.2 DENA ŎŕìƻƓ Č ,# 4 ĐƨxķƈÝƾØÔƤ×/%ƿƩ/wżćȨ3ϥ©ʔ
4 Ȱνϥ©ʔ
ɠʙÚƤ
ȼÄ
ȼŪ
Ʈŗ
ɠʙÚƤ
ȼÄ
ȼŪ
–27.5%
7.29%
41.5%
1.26%
4.92%
–17.0%
33.0%
5.91%–23.5%

29.5%

0.97%

3.89%

–14.0%

24.3%

ŎŕDENA 3̃̐˟˰4pPl0Gϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃-ͣϠKŒɳBȘ˹ɹƂ̦ͪ͞G,3Pco-/F3˟˰3̍ɍ4ϥċˌϒɛˆB̃̐Ξˁ̦0ĬíHEH%DENA 3̃̐˟˰0G̍ͦ3Ϊ42009 Ư 1 Ƚ 1 Ȩ0Ȧ̽H%pPlȤõʿį̪SsYʀ (EEG) 0īFíHEH%

2009 Ư3Ȥ%/ EEG ,īF̋L& DENA ̃̐˟˰3ʵǎ36-)4̃̐ó3ϥ΄ɢ̪3Ȗņ,ϒċ3͵

īFÏɕ4̃̐Ι̃0ƐGǫ̾ˏ͉»3ʙǳD7̃̐șϋ3ϊ3ϥ΄3ǹG̱

Gˌϒ

0ƣıH

GpPlʾŠ̮ʫÓͬĤŸċƀî˘ (BMU) 3ʀ͋ƂK̓µG%@3˟˰ Bömer and Burges, 2008 0D(+ƄȦH+

G3˟˰0Ŝ*ȼȤ3[kp]p0Ŝ*ʀ͋Ƃ3ǫ͉̾»ȇɖHΑč:ϒʘ]co4 0.3Ϻ0.47 eo/kWh -͊˯AEH+

G=%³ɟȺKΦſ+

PpPřƺ͙͞-̃̐͏Ɍ0Ŝ*G+ÉǣH+

G-0ƐG͙ȬȺ3W

BMU 4=%pPl3ϒċ̃̐93ϥċˌϒ3ȼΤ/̃̐Ι̃3į̪ǕKȁG˟˰KŶ͔G--A0(FGE/FGH/ISET, 2007)==/īF̋>0D(+ϥċˌϒ3ϒċ̃̐93Ι̃KE0Ȗņ+
ȁ(+

į̪ǕK

G#3˕ˏ4==/N}j3ǂϙKƂαĕG-,4/ξÑG͏ɹ˹BȾɀ/͏ɹ˹KȬE0G-,G3ͤɒ4 DENA ̃̐˟˰3 2020 Ư3ϥċaqU0Ŝ*

3˟˰,4ǀȨƦş3Ċ͖0DFϥċˌϒ3Ι̃KȖņGį̪ǕKȁ(++̽JH+

GǀȨƦşKˁ

G

G-,

ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡ƤʑG%@©ßċƉαD7û3hPc\,ǑĒG©ßċ3ϓ̏ͤȞˁϒċα3ǐ͉ǕƖ//G3ɝǒ4ǐ͉-HGϓ̏ͤȞKˠÓG%@3ǀȨƦş3ʈĒǕKɔǳ-+ʼŕ3ɥơ,4ǀȨƦş3īƻα4=F0AƖ/

ϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃3%@0ǀȨƦşKˁG

G-3̌ʐˏÐːK͚ÏG0%(+ʼŕ3©ßċƉα4ɨ3©ßċƉα Ưν 82,000 /MWͯ3©ßċƉαƯν 26,000 /MW -¹ƂH+GǀȨƦ

ş,3ϒċ3ͻí4ɥơ3ǀȨƦş3Ƅϊ3ǸĒ0Ŝ*ƮŗckoƦşÏɕ 45 /MWhϒċ3ŤĢ4ʩĪíϮ0 /MWhϯ-¹ƂH+

GHE3¹Ƃ0Ŝ*-ϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃3%@0ǀȨƦşK

ˁ



G-4Ū/āʧ͊

ú!/

31

ϥċˌϒ-©ʔ͡Ƥ0ͽŌGϓ̏ͤȞ3ǐ͉ǕD7pPl3 4 )3̃̐Ξˁ̦3͡ƤK}G3ʠŕˏ/koA͚ÏH+
0ŪƣıHH0)G3̍ɍ4ˉ/G̃̐Ξˁ̦3ăǋSN3̶ͯ©ʔ͡Ƥ3˗­ξÑ+4Ɇ˟˰,4͚Ï+©ßċ-ͤȞċȼŪ,̄ 20ϬÄ/î˗ξ+/

̶ͯ©ʔ͡Ƥ3«Ì,4

-J(%ϒċK}G04E/G̞̋ˏīF̋>ǐ͉,G--E0̶̃̐ͯʿGį̪Ǖ-ǷȐH+G

ϒċϓ̏ͤȞ3%@3˝¡ɂˏ/np_Ppsbo (DSM) Ɇ˟˰,ɚ͓H+FϒċʋͶ3Ũ

GDMS 0D

ˀɛAϓ̏ͤȞċƦş0ħčG-,GH4ȧ0ƄȦH+F±Ǉ3μˌ4.3˫ƴ3ĪíɂǅHGϮ)=F©ßċ-ϓ̏ͤȞϒċα3Ïɕϯ0ƣıHGǚŞΖÔacm3μˌ0DFƈϒ3]o,H5āˁį̪/©ßċ̲ƈƶEE0ǊEHGį̪Ǖ
0DH5÷̻ƵB÷øƵK˻ʽG-,ȼŪ, 3 MW 3ɨͯ3ͤȞƉαǊEHGį̪ǕŋΆƺ§ʱɢϦŉʅGȄƂGʅʣɢ

ɢKĸ@H5#3į̪Ǖ4Ȩ¡, 7 GW 0ΡG#3%@04āˁ̦#3

̽ĒKȬˠ0ťGǐ͉GɆ˟˰,ͤɒ%D0ϥċˌϒ3ĉĴŪ/̃̐0͉ɷHGͤȞċ4¢-+ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ3͡Ƥ#3ŪěKĠ@+Gϥċˌϒ3úċK˻ʽG-,ϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGɨ3©ßċ3Αč͉ɷαŪƫ0G-0/G̃̐Ξˁ3͍ʧE4āˁį̪/©ßċ0ςF-ȼAđɍˏ,GşĴϥċˌϒ3úċKʑE

G#G-,ȼŪͤȞċ3ǐ͉ǕKςƂG-,Gċˌϒ3šč0Àǐ͉/ͤȞċK 70ϬĆʑ%şĴ,Aˌϒ3ȎŮ4 0.2ϬɄʗ,ϥċˌϒŪα0ƔíH%şĴ4̌ʐˏ0ųǀ,G͏ɌÌ,4ϥG3]coɝ˺E

G-JGŔ̛˱ɴʹ̻ϮCAESϯ,ϥċˌϒ3ťĒúċKͤȞGį̪Ǖ0)+AͤɒH+

G400 MW ˌϒɢ

250 MW Ŕ̛ɢ̪ċ]cō 2.5 ä3«Ì0ξɤ3 3 )3˻ʽǤˈKɱΈ%
1.

ckoƦş0+ÄÏɕȰν,ϒċK͵ɕ,4Ƅʼį̪Ǖ4/2.

īFϩÏɕȰν,ͲŤGǤˈ4ʼŕ3ƦşÏˌϒǦK©ßˌϒǦ-+ËˁGpPl0+ʼŕ

rkl©ßċ3Ïɕ4ϖƪ0ϩƯν 1,000 3Īíɂǅ,G3.

Ŕ̛˱ɴʹ̻ˌϒǦKˁ+ūØ0ƣıHGϥċˌϒ3úċKckoƦş0GϩÏɕȰν0a{o!GE0Ŕ̛˱ɴʹ̻3˱ƉαK©ßċKÍ̏GˌϒǦ-+ËAȤ͋3ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡ƤK̈́%@0ǐ͉/©ßċKƹ͖!
G3,

H5Ưν 1,700 3ĪíƄʼį̪,Ŕ̛˱ɴʹ̻0]coKG

3.8 Ŷ½
̵ŒȘƳ3Ș˹˕Ƿ+G˕ɠ42015 Ư=,0Œó,ǐ͉-HGϒċϓ͉3 15ϬKõʿį̪SsYϒʘϮ¢-+ϥċˌϒϯ,͸-,G̵Œ,4ϥċˌϒ3μˌǔΗ0ΛL,

3ΑčˏΞΆ©ßċ3͋ɡA]coA̸Ū/Gį̪ǕG-EHEG̵Œ,4ȝƯćEHE3Αčˏ0ǐ͉-HG̃̐ͤȞċ3͋ɡ-]coKǬȊG%@3˟˰̽JH+

G (Dale et al, 2003; MacDonald,

2003; UKERC, 2006)ɆŞĺȺ-3ξΙʌ+¸ (Ilex/Strbac, 2002) D7-ǓJHG˟˰0)(Strbac et al., 2007) 3ĳϚ,͢ȬG

3.8.1 Ilex/Strbac, 2002
̵Œͷȭˀɛ˘3%@0ƄȦH%3˟˰3˕ˏ4̵Œ3SsYϓ͉0Ġ@Gõʿį̪SsY3
ɱʺ 2020 Ư=,0 20Ϭ

G

4 30Ϭ0/(%şĴ0͊Ό=HG̃̐]co3ščKƂαĕG-&(%3˟˰,4ϓ͉3==/̋>ĴJ!õʿį̪ǫ̾3ɞǣ/E70õʿį̪ϒʘϮ¢-+ϥċˌϒϯ
3αK͊˯AG%@3aqUûɌK̽(%Ũ3«Ì,ϥċˌϒ4õʿį̪SsY3ŪΪûϮ̄ 95ϬϯKĠ@+%3˟˰,4#,4/(%ťěϵɆ˟˰0Gϓ̏ͤȞ]co3ó͘4¸3ΖF,G ĻʁȝǑ˸©ßċD7ĵɂ©ßċ]coϵ˦D7ûĞÃ3ϓ͉ͤȞ0ξÑG ǅɢ©ßċ]coϵȰĞÃ3ϓ̏ͤȞ0ξÑG ͽĒ]co32 ϥċˌϒúċǭă]coϵΖƪ4Äϓ͉Ȱ-ϥċˌϒ3ϩúċȰϓ͉0ƐΟĈ0ˌϒG3K
ΨG%@0ϥċˌϒ3úċKǭăGşĴ0ʿGcP,˗ɮɹ˺Gć3ϓ̏ͤȞ]co3̗ϡK¼ 26 0ˢĻʁȝǑ˸3]co4cP
0G̗]co3ȼŪ3ɞǣ͉̇&Αčˏ]co3¡,4#H;.Ϣ̸/ɞǣ͉̇,4/
͉,GH-4Ɛʮˏ0©ßċ3]co4ΑčˏͤȞ]co3¡,ȼAŪ

¼ 26 Ĥ÷żŠʧ0ʃǜǐ

âƨƊćAEOŬƹ

ϥċˌϒ4;<î+3«Ì,õʿį̪SsY3ŪΪûKĠ@GΑčˏ/˝ɂ3ͤȞċ

G

4©ßċ3ȄƂ]co4ɆŞĺȺ,4Ȭˠ0͒˺H+/ǀþ3ÙKˁϥċˌϒ3ˌϒϒċα,ĉG-ϥċˌϒƔíʺ 10Ϭ3şĴ4ϥċˌϒ MWh ǀ%F 2.38 p0/F15Ϭ
,4 2.65 p/MWh20Ϭ,4 2.85 p/MWh 0ȫ%3]co4Αčˏ]co-+̀H%(+õʿį̪SsY10Ϭ3«Ì3¡,ȼŪ,¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱ

G

dNin?ϵËˁ%ϥċˌϒnh4̵ŒîÆ3ϥċˌϒ}bRZo 39 «ÌGϮΖƯ 1 ȨƮŗ 30 ûϯϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϩ

Eύ@EH+

ĕ% 30 ûνω3ϥΗ}{MP3ȰνKǕKõʼȤ}{MPKɞǣ%3ȒÉ0439 }bRZo3ύĴĕH% 30 ûνω3Ưνˌϒ}{MPKί2ĴJ!+c\Nk}%͍Ǝnh,
,̈́JH+
/(+

şĴ3}{MPKɞ˾G%@0ύĴE+˷×+ί2G-0DFϥċˌϒ3Ū͋ɡƔí3ŨɟGĳnh˴¸ρ4ȰνKE%nhGHE3}{MP3Ĵ͒4ϖƪ0Ū͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒƔíH%̃̐KõʼGA30

GƔíH%ŨɟǕ3͋ɡ4¼ǜ3¹Ƃ,GɆŞĺȺ,˕ɠ-%ŨɟǕ34nhāˁį̪/ϥċˌϒ}bRZo,Ƅϊ0͍ƎH%ŨɟǕ-Ũ3}bRZo3úċî˗ξ+/

şĴ3ʽͦ3ȼŪŨɟǕ3¡ν-%

30 ûϮǐ͉/ĻʁȝǑ˸ɹƂ0ξÑϯD7 4 ȰνϮǐ͉/©ßċ3ɹƂ0ξÑϯ3hPc\,3ϥċˌϒ3ťĒʺ3ϞƴûƧK¼ 27 0ˢ

¼ 27 30 ,# 4 ĐƨH4bE@qj33/ƻ¡ŉƱ¡É¦ƷåßĊıϵϒʘϮǉɊřϒʘ-ϥċˌϒϯ-ϓ͉KͤȞG%@0ΑčGϒʘK͚ÏG%@õʿį̪ϒʘ3
ťĒ3ɠʙÚƤKϓ͉D7ǉɊřϒʘ3ťĒ-̐͒ˏ0̐Ĵʵǎˏ/hPc\0Gϓ̏kj3̄ 99ϬK͸04.3˫ƴ3Ξʧ©ßċϮĻʁȝǑ˸D7©ßċϯǐ͉ɹƂH+a 2 )3ȥʀKˁa-ûɌ-+Αčˏ/̃̐ͤȞ]co͚ÏH+c

G

G3]co04͏ýǅɢͽĒΞΆD7ϥċˌϒúċǭă]coĸ=HG
aa,4Ȱ̃ýnhKȰν-0ĘüFͽĒΞΆμŵÛɧ3ȼƕȰνúċťĕΗƴƀƂúċ3ȼƕÙ-(%ȝŨ3Ēˏă̄K̥ǡ+̃̐Ξˁn[H+ʁȝǑ˸D7©ßċ3c\b[͒˅3˕ˏ,ΤˁH+
GňɛȨD7ϖňɛȨKĸ?ʵǎˏ/ 6 Ȩ0)+aG=%ϒʘɞǣĻ

Gϓ̏ͤȞ]co4î+3Ż˼0a˟˰KȝŨƄȦ+ȄƂHG

Ưν]co4Ȱν̶ίc,_}ȨKǴŪ+Ȱν3ί>*vPNcK̽(+Ưν3nhKɞǣG-0D(+ȄƂHG3ûɌˏN}j,4̐͒ˏ/ûɌǧʀˁƄȦ+3ȥʀ0DF.͆ώ,4/͒˺Aύ̄ˏ,4/ûɌn3Έɨ0ˁ

EH+

GΙ3˟˰KG˫ƴƂ3̍ɍǊEHG-ˠ͞H%3ûɌˏN}j4#H;%@¢-+aa0DFǝƴ-]coK͚ÏG%@3

EHGÒϵ3̃̐,ΞˁG.3ˌϒɢA̃̐3ǠǕ0ƊG-¹ƂH+

GǉɊřˌϒɢȇÍG

ĒˏǑ˸3͋ɡ4#3͖ßƉα3 10Ϭ¸-đʺǕȎŮ4 10Ϻ20Ϭ-͊/H+Gĵɂ©ßċ4Ϊû̶ͯ3˞ʦʤċ- CCGT ˌϒǦEÍ̏Hǅɢ©ßċ4 OCGT -ȈɵˌϒǦEÍ̏
HGĵɂ©ßċ-ǅɢˌϒǦν3©ßċ3ĉǀ4Ϊû̶ͯ3ĵɂˌϒǦϮɱΈˏςˆ]coÄ
3đʺǕȎŮ-ǅɢˌϒǦ3ϩˌϒǦϯςˆ]co,3ΞΆ]co-3opU{0DFɹƂ%

şϵΞΆ©ßċ-#H0µψG]co3ǐ͉ǕK͊ɜ@G30ΤˁHGǫ̾4ɤ0ΐ:G˟˰ (Strbac etal.) 0G)3ûɌ3D0̃̐Ξˁ3ϊ3ťĒGˠƄ/ϥċˌϒ0DG==/ǂϙKĔǵˏ0ǻGA3,4/

3.8.2



Strbac et al., 2007ĈŁϵϥċˌϒ̵Œ3ϒċ̃̐3Ξˁ-μˌ0Ĩ<ǂϙ (Strbac et al.)ϓ͉-ˌϒ3©ʔį̪/ťĒ0ƐùG%@̃̐Ξˁ̦ɷ@+G34ȝ˦Eȝû=,3΍Η/ťĒK¡Ŀ,GD/Τü/̮ĒǑ˸-ȝûEȝȰν=,3hPc\3C(F%ťĒ0ƐùG%@3©ßċ,G̵Œ3̃̐Ξˁ̦4Ʈŗ+̄ 600 MW 3ĒˏĻʁȝăǋK̢ē*#3ȥ, 3Ϻ4 Ȱν˫ƴ3hPc\,3ˠƄǕK˻ʽG04ĳ˭3©ßċ̄ 2,400MW ǐ͉,ċˌϒ3úċťĒ©ʔ,/GHE3ȝÙ4ϥşĴ4±Ǉϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϩ=G0)H̸ťĕGį̪Ǖǐ͉-HG©ßċ4ΑčˏˌϒǦ3ͽĒ0DF 4 Ȱν¸3hPc\˻ʽ,GHG3ˌϒǦ4Wcʰʬǫ̾3ĒˏƉαó,G-ɀ=

G¹Ƃ,Í̏

ťěϵϥċˌϒD7#H0µψG]co0D(+ˌʿGΑč,ǐ͉/Ǒ˸-©ßċK̃̐0Gϥċˌϒ3ƔíĀ0͢Ȭ%3Ź 11 ,ΈˏƖ/Gϥċˌϒ3Ɣí¡˫ƴ3şĴἸĻʁȝăǋ3ǐ͉Ǖ4ɱ

-ȬE0/(%ϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺϩG©ßċşĴϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα3 25Ϭ0˗ǀ

H5ϥċˌϒ3úċ3ɜ˴/ťĒ,AVv,GD0/G

©ǛHGȼÄÙ4ϥċˌϒ3úċ3ŨɟǕ3Ū0ƐǑ+Gʼŕ©ǛH+

GD0Wash ʕ

Thames ɻĭP[pĖ͈Ϊc]kop0Ũȝ3ϥċˌϒǦύ¡G-0/(%şĴἸĻʁȝǑ˸4©ǛHGȼÄÙ0Ύ

A3-/Gį̪Ǖϩ̍ͦ-+4ΑčG©ßċ3α4ʼŕ3ǉɊřˌϒǦ,ƐùG-,G3%@Ź 11 ,4Α
čG©ßċ3ΞΆ]co3>KȄƂ+G

=%Ɇ˟˰,4ťĒǕKĵɂ©ßċ3>,˻ʽGşĴ3̃̐w{TcBʰȢ]coϮD7¬έĕʦ̇ϯ3΢

K͚ÏG-,ǅɢ©ßċÍ̏3ϊ3ϒċʹ̻3ÏÙKƂαĕ+G̃̐3/ϒʘ3=

=/ƉαBɑ΅ǕK̥ǡG-ϒċʹ̻0DFʑƖ%ʰȢ]coK͹Ɇ͒%Ù4ɑ΅ǕÄ3şĴ4 970 p/kW -ϩɑ΅Ǖϩ̃̐3şĴ4 252 p/kW -Ä/G34

̃̐Ź 11 Ŷ½

/ƻ¡ŉƱ

Øł1Ç+)ũŪŊ¸ĲĆ®ñx¡ƙ¢Ŋż©ǛHGȼŪϴȼƕ MW 4ϥċˌϒǦ35E)KĩȮ+ G©ǛHGȼŪD7ȼƕ]coA2Ϻ4 p/MWh3©ßċÓǶ]coKĩȮ+ G]co4 1 p϶1.3 -¹Ƃ+(Strbac et al.)3ʋͶ̦]coE/MW 0
ȉ˺%

ϥċˌϒ
͖ßƉα
(GW)
5
10
15
20
25

ĻʁȝǑ˸3Αč]co3˽ŏ(/MWh)
ȼƕ
ȼŪ
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0.3
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.9
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Αč,ǐ͉/
ĻʁȝǑ˸
(MW)
ȼƕ
ȼŪ
34
54
126
192
257
382
413
596
585
827

¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱΑč,ǐ͉/
©ßċ
(MW)
ȼƕ
ȼŪ
340
526
1172
1716
2241
3163
3414
4706
4640
6300

Αčˏ©ßċ
]co3˽ŏ
(/MWh)
ȼƕ
ȼŪ
0.7
1.7
1.4
2.5
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3.7

©ßċ3Αč
]co̗ϡ
(/MWh)
ȼƕ
ȼŪ
0.8
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1.6
3.1
2.1
3.8
2.3
4.4
2.6
4.7

dNin?ϵ3˟˰,4ćŋ3˟˰ (Ilex, 2002) 3ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ý0ξGíċnh3ȼȤÙKËˁ%
ĊıϵΑč,ǐ͉/Ǒ˸-©ßċ4̶ͯťĒD7ϥċˌϒϱ̶ͯ3ťĒûƧ3 3σ Kˁ+ȄƂ%Ƕ̓Ǖ0Ŝ*ǫ̾KΤˁ+ʵƂ3hPc\3©ʔ͡ƤKɹƂ%ϥċˌϒ©ʔ͡Ƥ3ɠʙÚƤKϓ͉
D7ˌϒ©ʔ͡Ƥ3ɠʙÚƤ-̐Ĵ˻ʽ:îÆ3̯Ϯ͡ƤϯɵʙKɹƂ%#3͒˺4ʷ˲
3Ϯϖ˗ξ3ϯ͡ƤK̐ĴGɠʙˏ/̐͒N}j3Ǉ,̽(%Ϯ3̐Ĵ3Ʈŗ¬¥͡Ƥ4Ʈŗ¬¥͡Ƥ
3Ĵ͒Ù,

Gϯ

©ßċ3]coK͚ÏG%@2 )3aqUϮʰȢ]co 10 p/MW D7 20 p/MW 3şĴϯ
EH%3]co4đʺǕ3ȎŮ4 20Ϭ,ɚ͙0ˁFϥċˌϒ3úċî+̃̐0Í̏HG-ǛƂ

G-ĵɂ©ßċ3]coƮŗ+ 2 p/MWh D7 4 p/MWh -¹Ƃ+ǊEH%A3,
Òϵ]co4ü3ϥċˌϒ̃̐0Í̏HG-¹Ƃ+͒˺+GGǉɊřϒʘɑ΅Ǖ3ÄǦϮĤŸċˌϒǦ˷ϯ0ȕάH+

G̃̐,ϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺɱΈˏϩ

3úċKî+Í̏G-4,/

į̪ǕA

ˌϒ

Ϯ20Ϭ¸7ϯşĴϥċˌϒG3D/̃̐,4ǅɢˌϒǦϮOCGT

G

4ϒċʹ̻͖ßϯ0DFÍ̏HG©ßċ0D(+̃̐3ƉαKšBϥċˌϒKΙ̃G-į̪-/Gşϵʵ͕:--+̵Œ,4ʼŕϖĒˏ/npccǑ˸3Í̏0Ū0Ͱʸ+%ϓ͉3ǃĉKšƿH5©ßċ-Ǒ˸3̦3]coKʑE-,Gį̪Ǖ
ʧ0)+4Ɇ˟˰,4ǩ(+/G

GÂ3

3.9 24jhnPNPp3ϒċ̃̐0ϥċˌϒKΙ̃Gϊ3ǂϙD7 1990 ƯE3ϥċˌϒƔíʺ3ăςƉα˟˰H+GNPp3ϒċ̃̐0GϥċSsY0)

4¢-+ˌϒacm93ǂϙDFAΒϒ̕3ŅϠ0ʪʧKǀ+++H=,ƄȦH%þɂ3˟˰3ŨG

3.9.1 24jhnPǂSEI
ĈŁϵSustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) 4 NPp3ϒċ̃̐0Gϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺšč0ϊ+ǐ͉/©ßċ3Ξˁ(Ilex et al., 2004)-

ŞĺȺKï̀%

ťěϵ3˟˰̍ɍ0DH5NPpðĿŒó3̃̐93ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ 1,500 MW 0/G=,4ʰȢ]co-¬έĕʦ̇Ćʑ4ϥċSsY3Ɣíʺ0ɨɱÌ+ΈˏκhPc\Ϯ1Gϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ3ȫ0ǉ

4 Ȱνϯ,4ΞΆ©ßċ3Αč3ǐ͉Ǖϩ/G-ȬE0/(+ɱGϮŹ

12 ħʮϯϥċˌϒ0DF̃̐Ξˁ]co3̗ϡ4ˠ0ÄGϥċˌϒ 1,300 MW 0Ɛ+4 0.2 /MWhϥċˌϒ 1,950 MW 0Ɛ+4 0.5 /MWh -BBȫGį̪Ǖ

35

G

Ź 12 ƻ¡ŉƱ Øł̗ϓ͉0Ġ@GĉĴϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα (MW)
845
1300
1950

ơ

,/ƙ¢ðżx¡ǐ͉/ 1 Ȱν©ßċ
(MW)
15
25
50

6.1
9.5
14.3

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(MW)
30
60
150

dNin?ϵϥċˌϒǦ3ΟĦnh3̐͒ùʽ0DFȰ̃ýÉǣHGϥċˌ

ϒ3 10Ϭʄ50Ϭτ0FΒϒ̕0Ι̃H40Ϭτ,άϒ̕0Ι̃H+

Ċıϵ3̃̐3͚Ï,4ƑȾ̃̐3ĒˏnKˁ+̃̐3͏ɌKÉǣGȥʀKāˁ%#3]co4nOcwkjnEƔú%3͚ÏoZc4Ź 2 0ˢΖF,Òϵϥċˌϒ4ǐ͉0Ǒ+úċǭă,G-¹Ƃ+GGşϵ3˟˰,4ΞΆ©ßċ3ǂϙ3>Kͤɒ+FΒϒ̕93ǂϙ4̥ǡ+ˌϒnh4ςEH+

G

G3˟˰,4Ɖα3ŅϠKȬˠ0ͤɒ+

/

/

ͺ3ϩ

ϥċ



3.9.2 24jhnPǂÛŞŧŎŕ
2005 ƯNPpƝ3ȘƳϮNPpðĿŒD7ĖNPpϯ4ðĵ,îƝ̃̐˟˰3ƄȦKŶ͔% (All Island Grid Study, 2008)3˟˰3˕ˏ42020 Ư0GNPpƝ3õʿį̪Ss6 )3Τü/o{TU-Ʊ˽/Y3ƔíʺĀ3ǂϙKͤɒG-&(%3Ĕǵˏ˟˰,4=͹ʘ͚ÏK̽(+G 2 ʧ,G3˟˰3ɓ-/Gǫ̾ϗ4Βϒ̕˟˰-c\b[D7nOcwkj0ξ

FȼǇ0èû/̌ʐûɌ̽/JH+

GɆϚ,4c\b[D7nOcwkj0

ξG˟˰3̍ɍKίʧˏ0͢ȬG˟˰3´3Ϊû0)+4ɆŞĺȺ3¡,ĀΕ͢ȬG

ťěϵc\b[D7nOcwkj˟˰0DFîƝ3ϒċ̃̐Kϥċˌϒ¢Æ3õʿį̪SsYϒʘ0D(+Ξˁ#3ÔϟǕK 42Ϭ=,ϩ@G-į̪&3]co3΢

̍ɍǊEH%o{TUĵţ

4ɱΈˏƕ(%ñÆˏ04ϥċˌϒ 2GW 3o{TU 1 ,4õʿį̪SsY

3Ġ@GĉĴ4 16Ϭ&(%ϥċˌϒ 6 GW 3o{TU 5 ,4õʿį̪SsY3Ġ@GĉĴ 42Ϭ
,]co3΢

4 7Ϭ,,ϥċˌϒ3ϩ

G500 MW Ι̘̃ 2 ŋ̘0DFNPpƝD7[o|mƝ3̦Ɣíʺ0DF¬έĕʦ̇ǽúαKŪƫ0ʑE-,%=%3˟˰,4ϒċʹ̻

KšB%Fȧź3ϥċˌϒ©ʔǕ̪KȖņ!%F+AE/GÐːǊEH/
¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱýnhǊEH+

-ȬE0/(%dNin?ϵΟĦ3ϥċˌϒǦnh3̐͒ˏùʽ0DF1 Ȱν3Ȱνû͏̪3Ȱ̃Go{TU 6 KσϥċˌϒǦ4î+τ0˲ŖG-¹ƂH+Ċıϵ3˟˰,4NPp3ϒċ̃̐0ĴJ!+͖͒H% Wilmar ͒˅lKˁ

+

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šč0Ɛ+4rZơ3ȧźϒʘ-ƦşΞˁƐǑ+, 36Ϭ,+ơîÆ3ťĒǬȊH+

G NYISO ˁ

G2008 Ư3ūʫWcÏɕϮʯĞÃ MWGϥG-ȬE-/(%%F3úċťĕ4 858

910MW ,Gϓ͉GƉαZbko4τ,Ʈŗ 10Ϭʄ%FȄƂ 6.50Ϻ6.80 pϯ0ξ̃̐]coK 3 ä 3,500

Ϻ4 ä 5,500 p-Ūƫ0Ćʑ,G-J(%©ʔ3Ȗņ0DG̍ɍA˟˰%ćȨrko]koo©ʔ͡Ƥ σ 4700Ϻ800 MW E 859Ϻ950 MW 0šč%̃̐îÆ3ťĒ]co˼ʑ4rko]

koo3ȼȤ©ʔK̥ǡ%şĴ3 ä 3,500 pE 4 ä 3,000 p0ščGϮϥċˌϒ 1 MW

%F 10.70 pϯ=%Ɓî/ϥċˌϒ©ʔ0DF2,500 p˼̄HG

3.11.4 AlhPÜ
2006 Ư3 Xcel Colorado/Enernex ˟˰ (Zavadil, 2006) ,4zZ̶ͯ 7 GW ¸ó3̃̐0ξƔíʺϮzZ̶ͯ0ƐGϥċˌϒ3ï˨úċϯ 10Ϭ3şĴ- 15Ϭ3şĴ3«Ì͝˟˰H+

GϮ%&Ɣíʺ

20Ϭ3«Ì3̍ɍ4ɆŞĺȺ3úʲ0ν0ĴJ/(%ϯϓ̏ͤȞ3ǂϙ4 0.20 p/MWh ,FȰνɰ3͏Ɍ3̍ɍ]co4 2.20Ϻ3.30 p/MWh -/(%=%Ɇ˟˰,4̃̐Ɖα3 50Ϭ¸3ʰȢÍ̏͹ʘ,
GWcˌϒacm3̏ϒťĒǕD7ˠƄǕ0.3D0ǂϙHGͤɒH+GƔíʺ 10Ϭ3«Ì- 15Ϭ3«Ì,4Αč]co 1.25Ϻ1.45 p/MWh -/FHE3«Ì0GΙ̃]co3˽ŏ
4̗ϡ, 3.70Ϻ5.00 p/MWh 0/G40

3.11.5 :iX8jR2
CA RPS Ι̃]co}bRZo,4ȧ͖3õʿį̪SsYϮ'ϥċˌϒ4Ɖαc, 4Ϭϯ3ǂϙͤɒH+

Gϥċˌϒ3ͤȞ]co4 0.46 p/MW ,F̶ͯΑǉ0ƐGǂϙ4ȼƕς,(% (Shiu

et al., 2006)
2007 Ư0Ɓ¨%V{TrN3νɣǕûɌ}bRZoϮIAPϯ4V{TrNSsYŶŁ¾ϮCECϯ
G (Porter et al., July 2007)3˟˰42010 Ư=,0õʿį̪SsY3Ġ@GĉĴ3ĎǣKĬ%A3,
K 20Ϭ0G-õʿį̪SsYāˁĉĴŜʙ (RPS) KΡǣE0 2020 Ư=,03ĉĴK 33Ϭ0

GϮ#3' 15Ϭ4ϥċ-Ŭφʯ-ťĒǕ3Gõʿį̪SsYϯ-ˌƙˏ˕ɠKΡǣG%@

0ƄȦH+FΒϒ̶ͯʢʈl̐͒ûɌʿˀ]con[H+̃ŅϠ4ÇE3ųǀ/ΒϒP{3ťȹBΞˁ

G

G˟˰3̍ɍ̃̐Ι4Ș˹0D(+˻ʽ,G-ȬE-/(+G=%·̶ͯȰBƿϥȰD7ɵċˌϒ3ϩúċȰ/.3ɜÙˏɉ»3Ȱνƨ,4ÇE3Ξˁ3ͣϠʿG-©ǛH+

GV{TrNơ,õʿį̪SsYϒʘ3Ɣíʺϩ=G¡,3ơîÆ3ûɌ0Ŝ*̍ɍ-ȇ͐0DF̃̐Ξˁ̦ϒċ¾ˣP{͒˅̦±Ǉ3̃̐3rdKÿȣG%@
3Ɏ̋>KÉG-į̪-/G
3ŞĺȺ3˟˰̍ɍ4ϒʘNnVaΒϒP{õʿį̪ϒʘǫ̾Ș˹-#3ƄȦ0ûϣG
-,GϒʘNnVa0)+ȬE0/(%-3'ί͉/-4¸3ΖF,G ŚʤD7Ȩɰ3ͽĒϴÛɧƉα3ςKE0Ū,GD/ϒʘKͤ:̶ͯħčKˠƄ0ȖņȈɵˌϒ3āˁKȼΤĕG-,==/õʿį̪SsYϒʘ3Ι̃ÒΛ
HG
 V{TrNơ,4Ίúí3͒˅KϮ1 ȰνDFA˝
Kɚ͓G-ɀ=hPc\,ϯDFϞ̝0̽- ĳ˭3õʿį̪SsYϓ̏ͤȞ0Ĩ<ǂϙ4ɱΈˏ¡˫ƴ,Gî+3hPc\0GťĒǕ4 7Ϻ8Ϭšč1 Ȱν5 ûϮ̶ͯΑǉϯ1 ûϮĻʁȝͤȞϯ3ťĒ3 3σ Ù4ĳ387 MW42 MW10 MW -/GȼAÄ
G0ϩ̄ 1,041 MW ,10Ϭ̶ͯȰν3ɰȰťĕ0ƐG 3σ Ù4HDFA4

GE0 5 û3̶ͯΑǉȰν3şĴ4 60 MW 0ščG1 û3

Ù4Ⱦǜ/ťĕKˢA3,4/

H0ƐǑG CAISO zZ̶ͯ4 66,700 MW ,ϥċˌϒ-Ŭφʯˌϒ3͖ßƉα4#H$H 12,7000 MW D7 6,000 MW , Ξˁ3ɑ΅Ǖ4̃̐04ί͉/A3,

G

GϒʘÍ̏ɛ̦4Ũϡ3]co-ĪíʑKƿ

EHG-0/G3ŅϠKëȿG%@04Ū͋ɡ/Na_ycƦşBPemO|D7͉»ǐ͉,

GşĴ

G

3 CEC Şĺ3ƁǣǇV{TrN3ʷ˲̃̐Ξˁ̦ϮCAISOϯCEC IAP 0Ŝ*E/GûɌK
̽(%-IͤȞ͉»KσΞˁ3ǂϙϣÁ+G-ȬE-/(% (Loutan et al., November 2007)

CAISO ,4ǐ͉-/GͤȞƉα ȥͤȞ 3şĴ4 170MW š 250MW -/F ȥͤȞ 3şĴ4 100
MW š 500MW 0/GϮ400 MW 4ϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα3̄ 5Ϭ0˗ǀGϯ-ÿȣH+
˼D7Ȱν0D(+ˉ/Gǐ͉-HGͤȞċ4 GE ̽(% CEC ˟˰3 10 ×,Gšč3˫ƴ4Ż

GH4e{nOcwkj̃̐-̏ϒϮnOcwkjϯǷ·0ƐGˌϒ«ɛ̦3Ǒ˸3ȰνƤKDFɨˠ0̀̉͝nKāˁ%%@,

G3ŅϠ3E0͝ûɌ4=&̽JH+/



3.11.6 PacifiCorp
PacifiCorp 4hơU^ơPUă0̠H%«ɛKƙμ+ĴH%ϒċ¾ˣ,

Gϒċ¾ˣ,

[ơaoơNPiơD7V{TrNơ,͋
F2004 Ư04zZ̶ͯ 9,000 MW KÍ̏+G PacifiCorp 4˞ʦʤċBūʫWcʤċ-ŖʯˌϒɵċˌϒD7ϒċģƦşE3SsYKˁ

(%ϒʘKǦȾΞˁ+GŘ˖̐

Gϥċˌϒ+PacifiCorp 4 6 ơ3ϓ͉ƈ0ϒċKȇÍ+G
PacifiCorp 4 2Ϻ3 Ưɰ0̐Ĵ͹ʘ͒˅ϮIRPϯKÉǣ+GPacifiCorp ,43 IRP KûɌ3Ɏ̋>-+

6 ơ0G̶ͯ0ƐǑG%@±ǇƄȦǊG==/īF̋>0µψG]co-cZKͤɒ+G

3Ɏ̋>43ɛēK˓͌G͋ăǀƘ-ȼÄ]co͒˅Kɚ͓G%@3Ⱦː/Ŝ˔-/G=%
PacifiCorp 3ȧź3ˌϒΒϒ͹ˀ0Ȥ%/͹ʘ3Χǰ̨K̐ĴG͏ɌKƄȦG%@3ˠƄ/ûɌˏɎ̋41

>-/G3ûɌ0ËJH%ɰȰnOcwkjn,4Ʀşīƻ3u|D7Βϒo-ă̄Kɚ͓͹ʘ3Χǰ̨3̌ʐˏǣɍD7Ξˁ3ǣɍ͝ûɌH+
PacifiCorp ,4=G

2003 Ư3 IRP 0ϥċˌϒKƔí% (Dragoon & Milligan, 2003)1,000 MW ͋ɡ3Ɣí,4͖ßāˁʺ 30Ϭ3ϥċˌϒǦ0ƐG 2003 Ư IRP 3ΞΆ©ßċ3]cošû42.72 p/MW ,(%Pvc]co-+ȄƂH% 3.00 p/MWh -ĴJ!G-1,000 MW 3Ι̃]co4Ĵ͒,̄ 5.50 p/MWh,G3ûɌȼþ0ƄȦH+EPvc]co3ȄƂÙ4 2002 ƯȰʧ3o0Gp,

3.00 p/MWh 3==,G©ßċ3]cošû4Ȥ%/ƦşÏɕ0ƐȹȤH+

GȼȤ3ȝÙAGʼŕ3-Ĩ̐3ϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα 1,000 MW 0

H-ĵȥʀ,˺ú©ßċ3]co3>ťȹH+

Ɛ+2004 Ưp, 20 Ư0ŗ˷ĕ%Ι̃]co44.64 p/MWh -ȄƂH+

G (PacifiCorp, 2005)

3.11.7 M<BEÜ
mX_cơϒċÔϟǕ͚ͫ¾ (ERCOT)4mX_cơ3;<îœ3ϒċ̃̐KĞʷ,Ξˁ+

GERCOT,4 65 GW 3zZ̶ͯ̃̐0ϥċˌϒKȼŪ, 15,000 MW ƔíG%@3˟˰Kɚ͓%3˟˰3¢˙4
ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ3ϩ

Na_yc0ξGǐ͉/ščû-]coK͚ÏG-&(%#3˟˰

Şĺ0DH5ϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGǐ͉/ͤȞċ3ťĕ0Ɛ 98.8 wehPKˁ

G-ȥͤȞ-ȥ

ͤȞ4#H$H 54 MW48 MW -/G̶ͯΑǉ3hPc\0ξG̉͝/˟˰4̽JH+E
ȝǑ˸©ßċ_yc3ɚ͓4/H+Ļʁ

GA333_yc3ǐ͉ǕK͚ÏG30ǐ͉-HG̃̐3ÔϟǕͤɒ43˟˰3Ɛͮŧ-H%̰ļʌ-03˟˰,4ȼȤ3ϥċˌϒ©ʔKˁ%ϥċˌϒ MWh

%F3ͤȞ]co4ϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα 10,000 MW 0Ύ*0)Hȫ%ϮȼŪ, 0.27 p/MWhϯ#3ǇÄ15,000 MW ƔíȰ
0GͤȞ]co3Ƅϊ3ĆʑϡϮ0.18 p/MWhϯ=,Ä+
%-+Arko]

G#3ʽ˃-+4ǐ͉/ͤȞċškoo3ŅϠϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα3Αč0DFƀÏ/ˌϒǦKāˁG-,͏ɹHG%@Na_ycƦşͤȞ3ϓ̏ͤȞÏɕ4ÄG%(+ͤȞ3%@0ŮJH%ɢ¾]co4Äĵɟ0ͤȞÏɕϮp/MWϯʑƖG0)H+ͤȞ]coAÄGƄϊ3-I]cošû4ŨƖ/F-AƀƂ/A3,©ʔ̂ƴ0˖ȂƣıHGΑčͤȞ]co}c,APqc,AMWh 3Ù4ƕ+Ⱦǜ/Ù,4/

=%ϥċˌϒ0D(+̃̐3̗ˌϒĤÏÄGϥċˌ

ϒ0DFŋΨG-,G]co4ϥċˌϒ MW%F̄ 55 p-ȄƂH+42

G

Ř 4 ŗ ŞŧÇé¤łΒϒ̕3Ȥ%/Ι͉̃»Ϯ[kp]pϯ0DF3̃̐ϩ-,Gϥċˌϒ4,̔ǶHGÔϟǕKˠÓG)3ȥʀ-hPc\,̃̐NnVaD7đʺ0ǂϙG]co3ϩ

Bǫ̾ϗ0GͣϠ3Ũ-ͯ3ǂϙ

Ξˁ0-(+ȬE0Ðː-ɢ¾

G

Gϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺKϩ@G-04̃̐D7#3

Ū͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒ3Ι̃0DFϒċ̃̐0͉»ͣHG-0/&,/̃̐3͉ɷ0ǑEHGD/ϥċˌϒǫ̾Kμˌ/H5/E/ϥ΄3ϒċŀͺ3ʵǎKΐ:G%@3ǧϛ-ϥċˌϒǦ3ĳ˭3[kp]p͖Ƃ3%@3͉̃̐»KñÆˏ0ΐ:% IEC 61400-21 (IEC, 2001) 3Éǣ43D/μˌ3
Ì,GIEA ϥċƄȦĜƂ,4H=,0ƄȦ%˶ 21 û˥¾ (Task21) 0DFϒċ̃̐˟˰3%@3ϥċˌϒǦ3Ⱦđ/ĒˏnKȬE0+

G (Tande et al, 2004)ϥċˌϒAE%

G

4ϥċˌϒ0

D(+į̪0/G̃̐93ǂϙ0ξGĳ˭ÝϗK¸0͢ȬG
A. Ʊ¾îƾĽ¤Ʊ¡źƿϒŔăǋ3¢%GͣϠ4 ̶ͯȼÄ,ϥċˌϒȼŪ
ɿ=,

ECGΞˁɉ»0

3ʶɿE ̶ͯȼŪ,ϥċˌϒf+ĬƉį̪/ϕˏϒŔ-ϒŔ}{MPK̔ǶG-,

3ʶ

GȼȤ

ř3ϥ΄4wSZorZcǫ̾Kß+F#H0D(+ʩđϒċ3ˌʿ-˴ŸϒŔKƂ˽ŏó0Ó(+Gˌϒɢ#3A33;]n_vZBťŔŉhk}üȻŉȼA̲ˏ/ϒŔ}{MPͤȞǧɭ-/G̃̐

G

4ϥċˌϒǦ0ϕɧǁʩđϒċ (SVC) B STATCOM Kά̠G-,̃̐-ϥċˌϒǦ3̦3ÐːKˠÓGį̪ǕμHG3ʶɿ0GA)3ͣϠ4¢/Βϒ̃̐-Ŗśάϒ̃̐ν,ʩđϒċKīƻG%@3ăǋϮG

4ăςϯ0ξÑG

B. Ʊ¾ÑÒå̃̐Ȕ¦0DFϥċˌϒǦ,ʩđϒċ΀GşĴGϒċ̃̐0DFΤü/ʩđϒċKÍ̏,/şĴϒŔƀƂBϒŔƟŢKͽ2/

GϒŔƀƂǕ3ă̄K̚ĿG04āˁį̪/į̪Ǖ3©ßċ3Ⱦđϒċ0DFʩđϒċKęû)΍Η0̈́åGǐ͉GH4ȾđϒŔKăǋGϥ΄BŧΪ̈́å̠͂ (SVC B STATCOM) KāˁG-,į̪0/G
C. ƠĶÑÒå

,#¥ŊÑÒå

ǉɊ3ϥ΄3Óͬacm4̃̐3ȰșϋA4ɶ£șϋɚúH%şĴ0ƪ0ˌϒɢK͏ýÛɧ
!G͖͒0/(+%ϥċˌϒ3ƔíΛ?0)Hϥ΄3Ȱˏ/șϋ0ƐGΞΆ̪̒̓ċϮFRT Ɖαϯ

K͉»-G-,˛Ȱ©ßċBϒŔ̔Ƕ0/(+(%ί͉/̃̐_ycȇÍ0ƊGīF̋>DF̲ˏ

GH4ΟʒƀƂƴ0ƐGǕ̪ϒċǹĒ̃̐iz[0ίʧK̠

%͉»,

G=%

ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϩ/G0)Hĵɂˌϒɢ˖Ȃ̃̐0Ȃ̓HG%@0ϒċ̃̐3ǠǕAÄG
#3̍ɍ-+ˌϒǦ3͏ý0DFĻʁȝDFŪ=%DFǔΗ0ÄG-0/GȼȤ3ϥ΄0DFȾđϒċ-ʩđϒċ3̦KşĴ0D(+4ǉɊřˌϒǦDFA΍Η0ăǋG-,G%(+ϥ΄̃̐Ȕ¦Ȱ0Ⱦđ0ϒċ̃̐KȕȌ,GD/Ǖ̪KƄʼG%@3˟˰ʼŕ̽
JH+

G͏Ɍ3̍ɍEȤ%/͖ß͖͒-Τü/͖ß˻ʽ0DF¢͉/ˌϒǦG

4ŋ̘șϋ0ƐǑG%@3̃̐3ƀƂƴKϥċˌϒKΑčG-,Ƅϊ0ȖņGį̪ǕˢłH+

G (GE Energy,2005)

D. ƚƱÔƤ¤łϥċˌϒΒϒ0Ĩ<ǂϙ4̶ͯ0ƐˌϒǦK.0͖̠G=%ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯʋͶ3˗ξ0ƣıHGϥċˌϒ4´3̶ͯBϒʘ-ĵɟΒϒ̕3ϒċʢʈ0ǂϙΪ3ʢʈ3ȥĶKťG-

43

GΒϒ̘3āˁʶɿťJG-,ϒċȎŮˌʿ%FÐːǊEH%FGϥċˌϒKšč!%̍ɍoskZʶɿ0ǂϙĨ8į̪Ǖ
-0/GAH/

GϥċˌϒǦ3˲Ŗɉ»0D(+4oskZKʑE

Ā3şǦ,oskZʶɿDFϞ̝0ʿG-0/F2/

ϥċˌϒ3Ι̃0ÀΒϒƉα3ŅϠ4Ζƪ4ΞˁȰνîÆ3J
̕93Ǯ͹4)3ǧɭ0DFŋΨG

4éΒFG-,G6-)3͏ɹ˹-ǊG34ί͉/Ȱνƨ,ϥċˌϒ3úċKǭăGăǋacm3Τˁ,Ŗśó,ˮĒ,G3,

/Ȱνƨ0ξ+3>ʿǊGΒϒGA4´3ăǋį̪/ˌϒǦKʍώ%

H5ͤȞ%̮Ēˌϒăǋ (AGC) Kāˁ,Gį̪ǕA

GA6-)3Χǰ̨

4ϥ-Βϒ3ʶɿ0Ǒ+ăǋGnp_Ppsbo (DSM) ,GǇ3 2 )3ǧɭ4SsY

3ʉͶKŋΨG-,G%@ϥċˌϒ3úċǭăDFAđɍˏ,Gϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϖƪ0ϩşĴ&,/ί͉)Ƅ͙H+

Gϥ͹ʘ3ˠÓ3%@̃̐Ǵƾǐ͉/şĴ,Aϥċˌϒ3ăǋį̪Ǖ- DSM KΤˁ+A/̃̐ǴƾBƉα3šƿǐ͉0/Gį̪Ǖ
E. Vmq7k>OlR>EpAnUqH

ŌzŅ,/`4QEG

ëƳwSZorZc]vhKāˁ%ȼȤ3ϥ΄4ǉɊ3őƂΗ3ȥƺDFAϩƴ/Ǖ̪-ăǋǕKȇÍGwSZorZc3āˁΛ?¡ϥċˌϒǦó,ΫĴ/ăǋ3˗­ÉˁʿGį̪ǕG]vh3bĕĤą-{Oh͖͒4Ɛù:ί͉/ŅϠ,͖3ϊ0ûɌīFǩJ/H5/E/

FˌϒǦ3͖͒-ƹ

4.1 P4L
4.1.1 DENA Ŏŕ
DENA ̃̐˟˰ 1 ,42015Ϻ2020 Ư3ν0ˌϒ0Ġ@Gõʿį̪SsY3ĉĴK 20Ϭ¸0GΙΩȘƳ3˕ɠ4į̪,4/-̍ɍ0/(%#3ćȇɉ»-+±Ǉ3ϒċ̃̐μˌ0ξ3˟˰,ˢH%Ɛ˹KƄȦ/H5/E/
Şŧźé$



ëƳϵȤ%/ŋ̘ƹ͖H/H5ƿϥȰ0Βϒ̕3oskZʿG-

ƯȰʧ,ȧ0/H+©ʔ 2007GϮŹ 13ϯHE3oskZʶɿ,4̃̐eXmOK̔ǶG%@Ʀş²íǐ͉0/G2015 Ư=,0Ū͋ɡϓ͉Ŗ0ϥċˌϒ3ϒċKΒG%@04380 kV Βϒ̘KĴ͒,̄ 850 kmȠ͖Gǐ͉

GH4ȧź3;ϩŔΒϒ̘3 5Ϭ0˗ǀGȧź3Βϒ̘ 390 km 3̈́ƿAǐ͉,G

E0 380 kV ͖ßKȾđϒċʢʈăǋ3%@3Ȥ%/ɢŉϮÌ5Ŋͮς]vhϯD7ʩđϒċ̈́åϮ2015
Ư=,0̄ 7,350 MVarϯ0̋>Ό=25/E/
ä,2015 Ư=,0ǐ͉/ΒϒacmǴƾ3̗]co4̄ 11G

Ź 13 2015 â' ƻ¡ŉƱ 36GW ƝŞµŞŧÇéƾDENA, 2005ƿ
36,000 MWϥċˌϒ͖ßƉαĴ͒
850 kmȤ%/ 380 kV ŋ̘3Ƞ͖
400 kmȧź̃̐3ƿĕ
3Ŋͮς]vhϮĳ\c 1,400 MWϯ
7350 MVarʩđϒċ̈́å
ˌϒ0==Ũ3õʿį̪SsYāˁHGD0/F=%SsYƦş3̮˃ĕ0DGμˌΛL&-,ϒċʿˀɞΘťĕ+G=%3-ϒɴ̃̐3ĒˏƀƂƴϮϒŔ

G

4Ļʁȝ

0Gșϋc3ťĒȰ3̃̐3Ǖ̪ϯ0ǂϙKĨ<+GDENA 3̃̐˟˰,4HE3ǂϙKͤɒ

ġɢˏ/ʶɿKȬE0G--A0͏ɹ˹Kȇɖ+G

̃̐3Ēˏ͏Ɍ0DH5ʵƂ3̃̐șϋŪ͋ɡ/ϒŔρ-̃̐3ġɢˏʶɿKǲį̪Ǖ
5GÌGŖś,ɯ̘3 3 ˗˝̎0DF 20ϬKͿGϒŔρʿ%şĴ2004 Ư¸ć0ΞˁμŵH%ϥ΄KǀȰȾđ,(%[kp]p0ǉ

̃̐EüFϏǐ͉ǕʿGį̪Ǖ

G3D/͏ýšč

H5̃̐3ġɢˏʶɿǙĕϒŔρ0DF͒ 3,000 MW ƿ3˝ȰνϒŔρʿGǖHGH4ˌϒǦ3˝ȰνșϋK̈́åG%@0ɥơΒϒĜͤΙ˒ (UCTC) 0D(+˻ʽH+

Gɤăǋ©ßċKŋGÙ,GHKŋΨG%@F%(+pPlD7ɥơ3Ι̃̃̐3Í̏ÔϟƴK̫į̪Ǖ44

2004 Ư¸ρ̃̐0Ȃ̓H%ˌϒǦKƐͮ0͋ăȖ͑H%Ȥ%/͋ă,480Ϭ¸3ϒŔρʿG=,ϥċˌϒǦK̃̐EüFϏ+4/E/

-H+

G

2004 Ư¸ć0͖̠H%ϥ΄04ƻ̓)+3̃̐͋ăΤˁH+
ˏƀƂƴġ/(+F#3̍ɍÍ̏cZϩ/(+Ǧ0͖̠,GƑλɢŉǜGǐ͉

G#3͖̠0)G3%@̃̐3Ē

GĤą-+Ι̃G̃̐D7ˌϒ+4̉͝0ɚ͓Βϒ̃̐Ξˁ̦-ϥċˌϒΞˁ̦ν,Ĵ

G#3%@3ȥ˹-+4

 2004 Ư¸ć0ƹ͖H%Įϥ΄0Ɛ+Ȥ%/[kp]p3Ŝʙ0ĴJ!%ǫ̾ˏȖťK̽ SVC ˷3ϒŔ̔Ƕɢŉ3͖̠
 ȧźϥ΄3ȑĦKÀϥ΄͖ßȹȤ3čΗ [kp]p3E/GȖņ
DENA ˟˰#3´3˟˰̍ɍ0Ŝ*=%ȧź3ϥċˌϒ}bRZo0DǦϨEϩŔ̃̐0ϥċˌϒǦKΙ̃Ξˁ+

%@04FRT 3͍ʧE=%ϒŔăǋ,4/̃̐3ϒŔ̔Ƕ-[kp]pKΤˁ+͍ʧE

-ǐ͉-/GE.On Netz ,4 2006 Ư 4 Ƚ0ϩŔ̃̐-;ϩŔ̃̐3

ȧź3[kp]pKȖ͑+G (http://www.eon-netz.com)H4 1 )04͉̃̐»Kϥ΄Ɖα0DFĴ̯!

G%@=%6-)04DFñÆˏ/ăǋ͋ą-Óͬ͋ą3ƔíKį̪0G%@,GȤ%/Ɛ˹D

7ǴŪˏƐ˹KƄ̽0˩-,ϥ΄3Ǖ̪3Ȗņ-ƀƂĕKƄʼ#H0DFȔ¦Ǉ3ϥċˌϒ3ȎŮKʑE-,G (Erlich et al., 2006)
NqH

¡ƻ¡ŉƱ

dNin?ϵ2007 Ư2010 Ư2015 Ư0GĳŖ3ϥċSsYμˌ0ξGnhKŹ 14 0ˢpPl3;ϩŔ̃̐K 6 )3̃̐ŖśϮɋΪĖ͈Ϊ¡ΪĝɋΪ͈ΪD7ĝ͈Ϊϯ
0û+ĳŖ,3̍ɍK͢ȬGŹ 14 ƀņ×ƍėƨŞŧĀŪÀÃĭ

ƻƓÔƤťěƾMWƿ

ϮĵȰʺ 0.9 K̥ǡϯϮDENA, 2005ϯ

2003
4950
4240
1590
70
1620
193
12663

ɋΪ
Ė͈Ϊ
¡Ϊ
ĝɋΪ
͈Ϊ
ĝ͈Ϊ
͒

2007
7970
4980
2020
200
4052
368
19590

2010
8843
5250
2160
280
4946
436
21915

2015
9410*
5600**
2178
298
5647
450
23583

*ϯ2015 Ư3ʄϥċˌϒǦΑčϵ1,540 MW**) 2015 Ư3ʄϥċˌϒǦΑčϵ7,281 MWϕˏ˟˰3%@ͤɒ%ĳ͒˅Ɛͮɂν0ξ¸3ʶɿͤɒH+G

 zZ̶ͯϮϥċˌϒ/ϯ zZ̶ͯϮϥċˌϒFϯ Ä̶ͯϮϥċˌϒ/ϯ Ä̶ͯϮϥċˌϒ

Fϯ

pPl0G 2015 Ư3zZ̶ͯϮϥċˌϒ

F/ϯ/E70Ä̶ͯϮϥċˌϒϒʘ̶̃̐ͯȎŮʹ̻D7ϒċīƻ3ɱΈKˢ%3¼ 31 ,3 60Ϭ=,Kϥċˌϒ3>,͸(+F/ϯ0ξGGÄ̶ͯƿϥ3Ȱνƨ,4̶ͯG

ĊıϵForwschungsgemeinschaft fir Elektrische Anlagen und Stromwirtschaft e.V. (FGe.V.) ˟˰Ǧμˌ%̃̐͒
˺g{oQRN INTEGRAL Kˁ
NETOMAC -+ʙϕˏ͒˺K̽(%Ɇ˟˰3Ϊ-+ƄȦ%Ēˏ͒˺-͏Ɍ04

g{oQRNKˁ%ÒϵƿϥaqU0G͒˺,4ϥ΄E3͖ßƉαKȼŪ 90Ϭ=,pPlîœ3̃̐0ĵȰ0Í̏,G-¹Ƃ+

Gşϵ͏Ɍ,4 380 kV Βϒ̃̐0G̃̐Ǵƾ-#3ǂϙ3>Kǩ(+45

G

¼ 31 2015 âP4L

/ŉƱŞŧƎŷĂÍuƑ,#Ʊ¡°ç

(Dena Grid Study, 2005)

4.1.2 DENA ŞŧŎŕì
ȤŎŕ

pPl EEG2009 ,ǩ(% DENA ̃̐˟˰3ʵǎ36-)4̃̐0Gϥ΄ǸĒ3Ȗņ,Gϥċ

ˌϒ0DGĪí4̃̐Ι̃3ǫ͉̾»3ʙǳD7̃̐șϋ3ϊ3ϥ΄3Ǖ̪0ƣıHGpPlΙΩʾŠ̮ʫÓͬĤŸċƀî˘ (BMU) 3ʀ͋ăK˲͙G%@3˟˰ƄȦH%(Bömer & Burges, 2008)#3˕ˏ
4ʀ͋Ƃ3ǫ͉̾»KÉǣϥ΄3Αč]coK͊˯AG-&(%=%řƺ͙͞-̃̐͒˺0Ŝ*]}PNc͙Ȭ3%@3ȇɖA/H+

G=% BMU ,4ϥċSsY3pPl3ϒċ̃̐93Ι̃0ξGȼΤĕ3į̪ǕKȁG˟˰ľEH+
G (FGE/FGH/ISET, 2007)ȝ3N}j0)H++ϥċˌϒ3ϒċ̃̐93Ι̃KÒΛGį̪Ǖͤɒ

G#3˕ˏ4ĳ˭3N}j3đɍKƂαĕG-,4/ξΙGȾɀ/͏ɹ˹KȬE
G3ͤɒ4 DENA ̃̐˟˰3 2020 Ư3ϥċˌϒaqU0Ŝ*A3,0G-,

G 3˟˰,4ϒċϓ̏ͤȞ0ξͯ3û©ßċ4ϥċˌϒ̃̐3ϒċϓ̏ͤȞ0ŃƊ,
GA3,

F3ͤȞ4pPl3ʼŕ3Ʀşɢɞ-̌ʐˏɎ̋>3¡,Ƅ̽į̪,Gǫ̾ˏ

04ϥċˌϒǦA=%ɤD7¬ɤăǋϒċKÍ̏G-,Gʼŕ3«ć͹ɕƏɒíɇ͋ą04Ĵ̯/͍ʧE4Τü,

=%ɨ3©ßċ4ƪ0úċ3ʑƖǐ͉,+ĬĒˏ FRT ƉαK±Ǉęû0ˠÓ,//G=%ϥ΄4̃̐0ʩđϒċKÍ̏,/H5/E/

ȄƂ4/H+/Ëį̪ǕˑL0ͫͦH+
JF0\|Kˁ

G%@ϩŔD7;ϒŔ3Ŗ\|KG3˟˰,A==/ϒŔχ̆0

G-0)

)

+ɐ˱Βϒ̘3¶+ϒċȎŮKĸ?ǫ̾ˏį̪Ǖ-̌ʐˏƄʼį̪ǕKͤɒ

Gǫ̾ˏ04ɐ˱Βϒ̘3¶JF0\|Kˁ/ŅϠϥ΄3Αč]co3

 pPl,4ɐ˱Βϒ̘3ƹ͖͞įKǊG3Ŏϐ,

+



G

 3˟˰,4̃̐șϋ3ϊ3ϥ΄3Ǖ̪0)G-̍ͦ+

F¬έĕʦ̇Ćʑ-F#H0Ɛù/H5/E/

̃̐3ˮãʺ4\|3ˮãʺDFAÄG-04ɝ+ϋƇ4/Ì5\|D7ϩŔ˖ʈ (HVDC)

=%\|- GIL 4ka̃̐,ʢʈûƧ0ǂ

ϙGE04κ΁Ϗ\|3Ξˁ̌Ϩ4;-L./]co4\|DFAɐ˱Βϒ̘3ȥϩʠŕˏ̌ʐϗE͐5SsYȎŮ%@3]coKĸ@G-4ί͉,G380 kVȂ̓0ξ+4\|ƹ͖]co4ɐ˱Βϒ̘ƹ͖]co3 3Ϻ10 ×0/G-ȄƂH+ɐ˱Βϒ̘3ȎŮ3ȥϩϡ,G%@Ƅϊ3̗]co4 1.1Ϻ5.3 ×0/G0Ο/G

110 kVȂ̓,4 0.6Ϻ1.4 ×0/G)=F\|4̲ˏ0ɐ˱Βϒ̘DFA]coG-4͐/ɝ+ GIL - HVDC 4 AC \|DFA]co̸ϩ/G

 =%3˟˰,4ɐ˱Βϒ̘3Ȱˏ̶ί-ĒˏΒϒ̘Ƃɕ3ʠŕǕAͤɒ+
ί-4ĳȽ3ȼϩɴʓ0ǉΒϒ̘ƂɕKͤȞG-,ɕȼŪ 20ϬščG-ȄƂH+G

GĒˏΒϒ̘Ƃɕ,n-+46GȰˏ̶

G«Ì,4öɂ0Βϒ̘ƂG34ɴʓBϥΗ-

(%͆ȝ3whKUP,ʔƂGUPΒϒƉα,bRZo,4ȼŪ 50Ϭ3ščΡǣį̪-H+

GE.ON 0DGƄ͙}G Lange and Focken (2008) 4ĵȰ0pPl3ϥċˌϒ3̗ˌϒϒċα0Ŝ*pPlĖΪE͈Ϊ=,3ɴʓ-ϥΗ3ÎźξÑ0ͽŌG 5 )3ɐ˱Βϒ̘3ΒϒƉα3ščK˟˰+͖ßƉα3̄ 75Ϭƿ,GǄE4pPl3ϥċˌϒúċGşĴƮŗˏ/ΊΒƉα 40Ϻ90ϬȫG-̍ͦ%99Ϭ3şĴ,43ȫ4î+3ŋ̘, 15Ϭ¸,(%Ϊ3ɜ˴0ű=/«Ì4Ìŧ,3şĴȫ4 5Ϭ0-.=(%

4.2 Ŷ½ϥċˌϒǦ3͖̠şǦ4ǉɊřϒʘ-ĵɟ0Βϒ0ŪǂϙGɪİˏ04̵Œ3Βϒ]co4¢+ĖΪ0˲ŖGʤċˌϒ«ɛ̦ĝΪ3ϓ͉Kʗ%%@0ĖEĝ9-ΒϒG%@3Βϒ]coŪΪûKĠ@+%ȧź3ǉɊřˌϒǦ3ŨƷʥ-/(+4Gc]kop-P[pĖ͈Ϊ

D7ĖɋΪ/E70ĖQRdʊƛ0ϥ͹ʘͭƌ0źŕG%@3ʢʈ3hP}0A̧EHGaq
UK©ʔG-,#H0DFΒϒ3šƿD7ȎŮ0ƐG͉ɷAš+GG

4τϥċˌϒK[o|mƝîœ,μˌP[p-QRdɾƛ3ʄϥ͹ʘK

ĸ@G3,

H5Βϒ3šƿ]co44G0Ɩ//GE04ǉɊřϒʘ3Ȥ͖şǦ-ƷʥGˌϒ

Ǧ3şǦA=%±Ǉ3ΒϒƉα3ϓ͉0ŪǂϙG-0/G̵ŒĳŖ0GϥċˌϒǦ3Ι̃Βϒšƿ]co0Ĩ<ǂϙ̥ǡH+
3¡,ǉɊřˌϒǦ3Ȥ͖D7ȧź3ϒʘ3Ʒʥ3ǂϙͤ:EH+şĴˌϒƉα kW%F 65Ϻ125 p,3Ù4ûȜř3ϥċˌϒΙ̃aqU3Ù,
Ū

ȥϩ

G (Strbac et al., 2007)#G3]co4ϥċˌϒ 26 GW 3Fϥċˌϒ 8 GW 3şĴ35Ϻ77 p/kWh ,

(%Ä

ȥ

FP[p-QRdɺĴ3ʄˌϒǦ3ĉĴϖƪ0ȥ3Ù4c]kop-P[p͈Ϊ0ϥċˌϒǦŨ

aqU3Ù,Gȧź3ǉɊřϒʘKc]kop-ĖΪŖś,ƻ̓ËˁGşĴ]co4E0ϩ/G100 p/kW Gϥċˌϒ 26 GW 0ξ+4H4ǐ͉/͹ɆǮÙ4ΒϒP{3]coK̀Ù-+ËJH+͹ 26 äp,G-Kȴˢ+G(Ilex & Strbac, 2002) 3˟˰0G]co3ƫK̥G-3Ǯ͹ϡ4˲Ŗɉ»0D(+4 17Ϻ33 äp-/GΣωŖ0ûȜGϥċˌϒɢKŜưΒϒ̕0Ι̃G]co4ϩϡ0/GşĴA
p3 Western Isles Eõʿį̪͹ʘKΙ̃G]co G

GÌ5c]ko

4ʄϥċˌϒǦKΒϒ̃̐0Ι̃G]co4

Gϥċˌϒ3Ι̃]co4Ʈŗ, 40Ϻ70 p/kW -ȄƂHH4_Po3ŨɟǕϩϡ0/Gį̪Ǖ-͋ɡ3̌ʐ0ƐG==/͊ȥKĩȮ+F50 p/kW ¶̀Ù-+ˁ60ϬΒϒ̃̐0˖ȂΙ̃H+

4.1 ŞŧÑÒå$EH+Gϥċˌϒ3G-¹ƂG-Ι̃0ǐ͉/͹ɆǮ͹4 6 äϺ10 äp0/GëƳϥċˌϒǦ̃̐3Ξˁ-ƀƂƴ0Ĩ<ǂϙ0ξ+4ȝŨ3Ȅʔ/H+(FSIG) Kc-%ϥċˌϒǦ3ΟʒƀƂƴ4¤ɂˌϒɢ04úċ3ťĕŋΆŸ͎3ťĕ0ϖƪ0ƋȂˏ0ξÑG[4ϥΗťĒ-̯%oZϮőȾǑ˸4ǹĒǕ,GGőƂΗ͟Ɣˌϒɢ̃̐iz[Ϯʑ́ǕϯK̸Ķ!GĵΞΆʵǕ

G%(+iz4ϒċϯ3ťĒ0D(+ɹƂHG%@̃̐0Ι̃H%ˌϒɢ3Gȥ͟Ɣɢ04oZ3ťĕϥΗ3ťĕ0˖ȂξÑG-

%(+ǹĒǕ3̃̐ɉ»,͟ƔˌϒɢKˁΞΆʵǕKǶ)

G-ˌʿGoZťĒ3ŪΪû4ϥΗťĒ-̯G

#3̍ɍǹĒǕ3ʶɿ,4ĵɂˌϒɢ0GúċťĒ4;-L.ʑ́Ǖ,G%(+̃̐0 FSIGKƔíG-,̃̐iz[ȖņHG¬ί̏ϒ͟Ɣˌϒɢ (DFIG) ʑ́0Ĩ<ǂϙ4 FSIG DFA
ƕ

şĴŨ

̍ɍ-+4̃̐iz[̸Ȗņ=%ĒˏƀƂƴ3bAǊEHG-ȬE0/(+

G

4.2 ƻ¡ŉƱø

FRT ÔƤ

̵Œ DGϭSEE eh4șϋ̧ǕKǶ)%@3==/Ɖα3ϥċˌϒKƔíG%@0ǐ͉-/G̃̐47

]co3Αč͋ɡKȄƂG˟˰K̽(+G (Strbac & Bopp, 2007)FRT Ɖαęû,/ϥċˌϒKƔíG

şĴ3]co4ϮiϯΑč3ĻʁȝǑ˸]coϮ¢-+ǉɊřˌϒǦKÄđʺ,ΞΆG%@3ʰȢ]coϯD7Ϯiiϯϥċˌϒ3úċKǭăG¶JF0ǉɊřϒʘKƔíGşĴ0ˌʿGΑč3ʰȢ]coϮ̃̐Ξˁ3Ƅ̽į̪ǕK̔ǶG%@ǐ͉0/GşĴGϯ,GE0Ϊû̶ͯ3ˌϒɢ3ȝKšB+ΞΆϥċˌϒ3ΪKúċǭă/H5/E//G-HA=%ȄƂH+

GD0¬έĕʦ̇ǽúαšG-0/G
îÆˏ043˟˰̍ɍEɱΈˏƀƂƴ3Ä

ϥċˌϒKŪα0͖̠%şĴ̵Œ3şĴ4̃̐3]co̸ščG-0/G%Αč]co4FRT ƉαKȇÍG30ǐ͉0/G-©ǛHHG
ǫ̾ˏ]coDFA̸ϩ/Gį̪Ǖ

GƄȦ%˟˰3̍ɍEJGD0Ū͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒǦ

FRT ƉαKɷ@G-4̌ʐđʺD

0̸

-͐G

4.3 9hnI
4.3.1 Şŧźé6,000 MW ƝŞ 

12003 ƯUǐʐ˘46,000 MW 3ʄϥċϒʘUi3ϒċ̃̐0Ĩ<ǂϙ3˟˰0˚ǧ%
2005 Ư3ϩŔ̃̐3zZ̶ͯ4 15.2 GW ,G6,000 MW ϥċˌϒ3ȼΤ˲Ŗɉ»K]coûɌ0Ŝ*+ɹƂϒċKτťϒǦ0ΒGΧǰ̨˟˰H%
3˟˰3˶ 2 ɂ,4Ui3 150/380 kV ̃̐3ί͉Ǖ̶ͯʢʈ͏Ɍ0D(+ȬE0H+

G(Jansen & de Groot, 2003)
ťěϵ¼ 32 4ϥċˌϒ3Αč0D(+ʿGoskZKˢ+,ŅϠK̚Ŀ,G-ˢłH+

GȤ͖Bšƿ%ϩŔ̃̐93Ι̃

G=%ϒŔăǋ̠͂ǐ͉-HGǮ͹]co4̄ 3.1 ä-ȄƂH%Ȥ͋A4šƿ%̃̐93Ι̃3'30ϬKɐ˱Βϒ̘,4/\|0/+4/E/şĴ4̗]co̄ 9.7 ä0/G

¼ 32 9hnI

NqH
ċ,¡ƻ¡ŉƱ

ƚƱŞŧ/ĳsƻ¡ŉƱƐ»/^OjSK>

dNin?ϵϥċˌϒn4ˁ+/ϥċˌϒ3úċťĕ3ς4ï˨úGĊıϵ150/380 kV ̃̐0ʄϥċˌϒ 6,000 MW Ĩ<ǂϙ̶ͯʢʈ͏Ɍ0D(+ȬE0/(+
48

GΙ̃Ŗʧ4 Beverwijk - Maasvlakte ,G

4.3.2 ĳsƱ¡4nXh6,000 MW ƝŞ II2005 ƯUǐʐ˘4˶ 2 ɂ 6,000 MW Ι̃ II KŶ͔%3˟˰,4ϥċˌϒ3͖̠aqU«ć͖͒D7ʄ̃̐3]co/E70ʾŠʀăȘ˹3ĳÝϗKͤɒ%,4ʄϒċP{0)+ɝ͢G (Eleveld et al., 2005)
ȥʀϵ3˟˰4 6,000 MW Ι̃

3Ι̃,,

˟˰3 3 )3Χǰ̨ϮAC150 kVAC380 kVǉɊř HVDCϯKE0

GAC150 kV 0ξ+4ćŋ-΢\cͤɒH+ˌƙ!%A3,

G380 kV 0ξ+4ôƼʶ-ʾʶ- 2 \cͤɒH+G/J'ϥċˌϒǦ3ÖĀ

GHVDC 3\cAĵʾʶ

GHE3Χǰ̨3¢͉/ǫ̾ˏʵǎʵ0τȈ0ξGÝϗȬE0H+GĳΧǰ̨3Ǯ͹]coKɹƂĳ˭3̌ʐˏaqUKɱΈ%
ťěϵŹ 15 4ĉƻʺ 7ϬD7 4 )3μˌaqU3Ǯ͹ϡ3ɨļʼŕÏÙϮ10 äϯ,aqU,4î͖ßƉαΡǣ=,3Ȱνˉ/(+

Ź 15

çł 7ƽ

G

ýƏĬ¹Ń¿ƾ10 fqlƿaqU 1 ,4̗Ɖα 6,000 MW 0ĂΡG34 2020 Ư&aqU 2 ,4 2030 Ư,

aqU 1
0.96
1.01
1.55
1.80

AC150 kVAC
AC380 kVAC chř
AC380 kVAC ʾʶ´Đ HVDCGHE3G

aqU 2
0.77
0.80
1.19
1.43

4.4 _jO;j4.4.1 ƚƱŞŧƧŉŎŕ
ϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺKϩGG6-)4ƿϥ3į̪Ǖ3

˕ɠKΡǣG04¢-+ɤ3 2 )3ʽ˃0DF̃̐μˌǐ͉,

GŖś0ϥċˌϒKύĴ!G:̃̐KǴƾG-A6-)4Œó3

)3Ŗś,ϒʘKΑč,š͖G-,

G2001 Ư0ÉǣH+

2010 Ưõʿį̪SsY3Βϒ̃̐μˌ͒˅G̃̐Ξˁ̦ REN 43͒˅K 2 Ưɰ0ͤ

ƄȦH#3̍ɍ0Ŝ*Βϒ̃̐͒˅

ȞǀƘ0ȇú/H5/E/

2001 Ư3ǀþ3͒˅4IST (Instituto Superior Tecnico) ϒŸǚŞƢŽ˥3 Centro

de Energia Electrica - REN Éǣ%
ťěϵȧź3 220 kV D7 150 kV ŋ̘3ȝKŪƫ0šB̃̐3ʩđϒċ̈́åKšč!2 )3ťϒǦ0Ã˗a{oťŔŉKƔíG%@400 kV220 kV150 kV Βϒ̘-ťϒǦE/GȤ%/Βϒ̃̐Kƹ͖G
ǐ͉

G4,000 MW 3ϥċˌϒKΒϒ̃̐0Ι̃G]co0)+2005Ϻ2010 Ư0õʿį̪Ss

YϮ¢-+QOp{Mϯ0˖ȂƩ!EHGǮ͹̗ϡ42 ä0/G͊Ό>,GH4 õʿį̪SsY3%@3̃̐Ɖα3Ċú0˖ȂξÑG˭3̃̐ɞǣ͉̇ϮΒϒ̘ťϒǦ˷ϯ3]co3Ĵ͒3͒˅0G̃̐ɞǣ͉̇3ŪΪû̃̐3´3˕ˏ0A͹G-K̥ǡGǐ͉GξÑGî+3̃̐ɞǣ͉̇3]coKĞ̅0č˺H5̗ϡ4;<×0/GϮ4 äϯ
 QOp{M3¢ťϒǦBΒϒ̃̐Ι̃ʧ9Ȃ̓GΒϒ̘4̥ǡ+ɛ̦ƹ͖]coKͯǱG-0/(+/Ċıϵ ɠʙˏ/ ̃̐μˌ˟˰,ËJHG3-ĵbc/PTI 3 PSS/E nKˁʈƂƪ͏ɌKˁ

H4μˌ«G
%̃̐3Ζƪ3¯%Òϵϥċˌϒ3 3 )3Ɣíʺ͖ƂH+HGƮŗɵʙϯD7 10Ϭ,G/J' 80Ϭ30ϬϮ̃̐0©ǛHGȎŮ͒˺0AËJG´3ϒʘ3ɞǣ͉̇0ξ+4¸3Ζƪ3͒˅aqUK̥ǡ%

/J' (1) ɵċˌϒϩ ϮʤċˌϒÄϯ\cD7§ɂϮɵċˌϒÄʤċˌϒϩ
49

ϯ\c(2) ϓ̏vcͤȞHϒċīƻʇˌ/\c(3) ΊíA4Ίúαɜ˴0ŨZȰȼƕȰ¡̶ͯȰ3\c0G̶ͯ͏Ɍ3ĳaqU,ƿÃ˗a{oťŔŉ-\c(4) ̶ͯzG=%Ϊ3ȧź3Βϒ̘ƂɕKš(% FACTS ɢŉ3ƊK̥ǡG-,G-¹Ƃ%

şϵ˶ 1 ɂ˟˰̊¨%Ȱʧ,4ƓɊ3ϥċˌϒǦ3ñÆˏ/_PoBƹ͖czp4ȬE0/(+̃̐Ξˁ̦ REN 4_PoD7ϥċˌϒ3ʠŕǕ0ξΟĦ3˟˰0ϟEGKǊ/(%REN 4

E

HE 2 )3Ϝś0ƔíGǐ͉

+ʿǊGˉ/G̍ɍ0ƐǑG%@3͏ɹ˹K͒˅Gϊ0ɑ΅Ǖ3Ϛ˕K

)

G

4.4.2 _jO;j

Şŧ

Ʊ¡Şŧ

ƠĶÑÒå

ϥċˌϒ 2010 Ư=,0oW3Βϒ̃̐3ΟʒƀƂǕ0Ĩ<ǂϙ 2004 Ư0 REN 0D(+ͤɒH+

G=% IST (Instituto Superior Tecnico) 3 Centro de Energia Electrica -3Ĝċ0DF͏ý/,3̃̐˝̎șϋ0DFʿ%ϒŔnOk}̧ǕKǶ)%@3ϥċˌϒɢ3Ȥ%/͉»K͋ƂGǐ͉ǕͤɒH%
ťěϵ̃̐3Ɩȝ3ʵƂ3ɯ̘șϋ0ξ+4ϥċˌϒɢʼŕ̽(+NěƝ3Ϊ,̭ͤʿGį̪Ǖ

GϒŔÓͬ3==,G͖̠H%ϥċˌϒĉĴϩ

H5PşĴFRT ƉαKˠÓG%@ăǋ̠͂KƔíG-,ϥċˌϒ3͏ý̸ʑG̍ɍ-/GoW0Gϥċˌϒ3ŇŮ4cP-{c3Ι̘̃0ǂϙG-0ʃǜǐ͉,3Ι̘̃4Ζƪ4{cEcP93ϒċīƻ3%@0ΞˁH+
NqH
EH+

G

¡dNin?ϵPNěƝ-{c3̉͝/̃̐Ʈ̿Kˁ
Gĳϥċˌϒɢ3͏Ɍ0ξ+4ʵĀ/άǡ/H+Ċıϵ¸3¹Ƃ0Ŝ*Ζƪ3Οʒ͏Ɍˁ

EH+

G

% PSS/E Ēˏ͏ɌnhˁGGÒϵ3 ˗șϋ4Υȣŉ3șϋÓͬD7ΣȥșϋÓͬ3˶ 2 ɭχ3ϊ0 Ζƪ σĦȰνó3Ζƪ3 3 ˗șϋ-ĵɟ0σĦHGşϵϥċˌϒɢ3n4̲3A3,

GGȼȤ3n,4/

Ǉ0͖ƂH%Œó˕ɠÙDFAÄ/(+

4.5 4[i2¨ÛƚƱŞŧϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺϮ26,000 MWϯ4

G

ÑÒå

cP3̃̐Ξˁ̦ Red Electrica de Espana 0DG˟˰ Produccion Eolica Tecnicamente Admissible en el Sistema
Electrico Peninsular Iberico-Horizonte 2011 oW3̃̐Ξˁ̦ REN (Rede ElectricaNacional) ˣ3ħčKǊ+̽JH2006 Ư0Ɓ¨+G3˟˰̍ɍ0Ŝ*ƀƂƴ3͍ʧEϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ3ςƴKˠƂG%@PNΒϒ̕3Οʒ͏ɌƄȦH+G

ťěϵ˟˰̍ɍ0DH5͖̠H%ϥ΄3 FRT Ɖα 75ϬΡǣHG-H5cP3ϥċˌϒK 20 GW
0oW3ϥċˌϒK 5 GW 0G-į̪,
0DGăς4/NqH¡-˲͙H+GFRT Ɖα 100Ϭį̪,,#dNin?ϵPNěƝ-{c3̉͝/̃̐D7

0DG PSS/E Ēˏ͏ɌnhˁnʹEH+

H5ΟʒƀƂƴ3ʽ˃

G
EH+#3´3 UCTE ̃̐

G=%ŪΪû3\c4μˢ3Ĵǜ0Ŝ*+GĊıϵΒϒ̕ɯ̘ 3 ˗șϋ0ƐPNěƝ3ϒċ̃̐3Οʒ͏ɌƄȦH+,43șϋɡȓ4Óͬ̒ϒŉ3Ξˁ0Ŝ*ϓ͉Ȱɚ͓H+˷ÏnGϥ΄3n[04ʵĀ3ʃǜǨJHͅΘ«ɛ̦E+

GcP3\c

G (REE, 1995)öɂ3zZϓ͉aqU-Ŧɂ3ȼƕGÒϵ3 ˗șϋ4Υȣŉ3șϋÓͬΣȥșϋÓͬ3˶ 2 ɭχ3ϊ0 Ζƪ σĦȰνó3Ζƪ3 3 ˗șϋ-ĵɟ0σĦHGcP,ΞˁH+

Gî+3QOp{M0)+4ǁ͟Ɣˌϒɢƥ̘ǁ͟Ɣˌϒɢ{w]vhKȾGĵɂˌϒɢE04¬ί̏ϒ͟Ɣˌϒɢ/.ĳȥƺKĘĀ+̥ǡƓɊ3ϥċˌϒǦΑčH+

GƓɊ3ϥċˌϒǦ04ϒŔnOk}̧ǕKǶ'cP3[kp]p0ʙǳ%ϥ΄nˁ

EH+

G͏ɌaqU,4{c-cPK̍8 400 kV ŋ̘

3Ȥ͖0DFŒν3Ι̘̃ƉαKʼŕ3ȼŪ 1.5 GW E 4 GW =,šB-ɚ͓H+şϵ3Ȥ%/{cϳcPΙ̘̃3šƿ4ʾŠ͞įD7̽Ș͞į=&ǊEH+
3̍ɍ,4ȧź3ϥ΄3ΪûˏȖ̳0DF FRT ƉαKΡǣ,G-¹ƂH+
50

G
/

͕

GPNěƝ,4 12

GW ƿ3ϥċˌϒȧ0͖̠H#3Ũ
/

ȩƺ3

ǫ̾&-

-K̥G-H4Ɖȭ/-,4

4.6 E\4n4.6.1 Ʊ¡ŞŧrĐŊÑÒåŞŧé¦PNěƝ3̃̐,ǩ-3,Gϥċˌϒ3ȼŪƉαKɹƂG%@0Ϯć˼ħʮϯcPD7
oW3̃̐Ξˁ̦ REE D7 REN 0D(+==/˟˰̽JH% (REE/REN 2005, Rodrí!guez-Bobada etal., 2006)
3˟˰,4{c-3ν0˖ʈ 400 kV Ι̘̃KƓɊȠ͖Gί͉ǕƿͤH+

GcP3«Ì

,4ϥċˌϒ3μˌ0DFȤ%/Ι̃-Ξˁ͋ąͣHϥċˌϒǦϮϥċˌϒǦEťϒǦ=,3ϯȂ̓-šƿ3]coKͯǱG-0/(%#3ȥ,H0DFΙ͉̃»Ó̠ͬ͂Σω͒ʔăǋúċ
ǭă3͏ɹ

G

4ϥċˌϒǦ3ύĴĕ/.ƿĕHG-0/(%Βϒ̕4ȬE0šƿǐ͉,F22 ä-Ǯ͹ϡ4õʿį̪SsY0ƩŌGβϡ-,/REE 0DF 2006Ϻ2010 Ưƴ3Ǯ͹ϡ-+͊˯AEH%Ù,Gϥċˌϒ0DGǮ͹-EH5̃̐3šƿ-Ȥ%/ŋ̘3Ȥ͖ϥċˌϒǦ-´3āˁ̦3%@00ɷ@EH+3ȫʺ4ΎƯϩ/(+

4.6.2 ƻ¡ŉƱø

&

͍ʧ

G%@Ϯϒċϓ͉

GϯcP3«Ì0ξ+43ȝŹKΡǣG-4Ŏϐ,G

LVRT ÔƤ

ΎƯǪ͞H% REE [kp]p,4Βϒ̕-3˗­Ι̃ʧ0
p{M4ok}!

0̃̐KȕȌ/H5/E/+ϒŔnOk}ˌʿ%şĴQO

(Gómez-Lazaro et al., 2007a) ,4REE [kp]p0)+͝͐ĨH+FcP3[kp]pϮΞˁǧϛ 12.3ϯ,ͣH%ĳ˭3Ù3ųǀ

ǕKˢ+

G

ϒŔnOk}0ƐGQOp{M3Ǒ˸KʔƂ͚ÏGǧϛ4ϒċ̃̐Ξˁǧϛ 12.3 ,4Ok}0ϊ+ϥċˌϒǦ3Ǒ˸KʔƂ͚ÏGǧϛ
/ɚ͙}ecG4ʵƂ3ɚ͙}ecKˁp{M͏ý/

0

ϒŔn

+͋ƂHG-0/G3ǧϛ4̲ˏ

+ΡǣG-,G̲ˏ/ɚ͙}ec,4QO

-Kɚ͙Ξˁǧϛ 12.3 ,Ƃ@%͉»K¸3ĒÉ0DFƄʼG-0/G ϥ΄B FACTS ɢŉ3ƄŖ͛Ϩ0DGϒŔnOk}3ϊ3Ǒ˸3ʔƂ ϥ΄B FACTS ɢŉ3͏ɌD7ɚ͙͏Ɍ̍ɍ-ʔƂÙ-3ɱΈ
 QOp{M3͏ɌQOp{M3n04ϥċˌϒ3ϒċ͖ßϮ\|BťŔŉϯ-ð0͙͞H%ϥ΄nĸ=HGQOp{MŧΪ3ϒċ̃̐4}[[į̪/ʽǛϒŔʘ-G3ϒʘ0DF3 ˗ϒŔnOk}-˗νϒŔnOk}-

2 ˭ϣ

3¬¥ƮŗϒŔ}{MPǊG-,GcP3[kp]p0D(+ͣH%Ⱦ
đʩđϒċ͉»Kʗ΀QOp{Mó0ok}Gϥ΄6-)A/şĴ0QOp{Mn3͚Ï-Φſ͙ȬKǊG-,Gϥ΄D7QOp{M3n4}ecîÆ,ί͉/ǃĉKɍ%-4ȬE,ͣ͉»0D(+ϥ΄-QOp{M3Ɓî/nKÉǣ/H5/E/

G3ǧϛ(Gómez-Lazaro et al.

2007b)

4.7 Nn`q>2025 Ư=,0nZ0GSsYʋͶ3 50ϬKϥċˌϒ,͸D0G%@0 (Danish Energy
Authority, 2007) nZ,ǐ͉-HG̃̐šƿ]co0ξGŞĺȺ 2 )ŞĺH+
Energinanalyse A/S, 2007 - Electricity Infrastructure Committee, 2008 ,G/J' EA

G2008 Ư 4 ȽnZ3̃̐Ξˁ̦ Energinet.dk Kĸ?ϒċP{ŶŁ¾ˌ̀%ŞĺȺ0DH5±ǇnZ,\|Kˁ

Gɐ˱Βϒ̘Kˁ

G0D(+ǐ͉-/G̃̐Ǯ͹]coŪ/ƫG(Electricity Infrastructure Committee, 2008)3ŞĺȺ,4ĳϒŔχ̆3\|Ƞ͖0ξG 6 )3ĤąKƂ@+G2030 Ư=,0ϥċˌϒ 3.5 GW KȤ%0nZ3ϒċ̃̐0Ι̃G-0/(+F#H0D
51

Fϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉαĴ͒, 6.5 GW -/G
3 6 )Ĥą0DGǴƾ]co4ϥċˌϒ 3.5 GW Αč0DF 107]coî+ϥċˌϒ0ĉǀ+EHGJ,4/

1,920 /kW =,-ƫG3

2008 Ư 11 ȽnZȘƳ Ĥą C KΧǰG-0DFϥċˌϒ 3.5 GW Αč0DF]co4 675 /kW -/F3'̄ 40Ϭϥċˌϒ0ĉǀ+EHG
%(+nZ0Gϥċˌϒ0DG̃̐Ǵƾ]co42030 Ư=,0ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉᾱ 270 
/kW 0/G-ȄƂHG
(EA Energinanalyse A/S, 2007) 3Βϒ̕šƿûɌ0ξ+4¸3D0/G
¡NqHϵ2025 Ư3τ3ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα4 3,500 MW -/F2008 Ư-ɱΈ+ 700 MW ščG
-0/Gʄϥċˌϒ3Ɖα4 2,250 MW ščGʄQOp{M3ƹ͖Ã̠ȄƂH+G

ťěϵϥċˌϒ0DFˌϒH%ϒċKτ0ΊΒG%@3]coϮťϒǦD7 AC/DC ]vhKĸ?ϯ
49.25 ä/J'ʄϥċˌϒ MW%F 41 -/GϮ(EA Energinanalyse A/S, 2007)3̀ 18ħʮϯǐ͉-HGτΒϒ̘3̈́ƿ3Αč0DF1.425 äϮʄϥċˌϒ MW%F 63,000 ϯ3]coˌʿG3şĴ´3ʽ˃0DFnZ͈Ϊ-tQR-3ν0A 1 ŋ̘\|(Skagerrak 4) KΑčG-ǛƂH+
H/

GϮ(EA Energinanalyse A/S, 2007) 3̀ 19 ħʮϯSkagerrak 4 ͖̠şĴΒϒ̕3̈́ƿ]co4 2.634 ä0ščGϮʄϥċˌϒ MW%F 117,000 ϯ2007

ƯE 2025 Ư=,0τϥċˌϒK 700 MW šB04 GŖś3ûȜ̃̐̈́ƿǐ͉0/GAH/
Βϒ̃̐3̈́ƿ/,Aį̪,G-͊Ό=H+GĊıϵ3ûɌ4Βϒ̕3͏Ɍ,4/Ƒλƈ3ÿȣ0Ŝ*A3,

GH0DFʄϥċˌϒǦ-τΒϒ̕3Ι̃3˭ϣϮ¯ʈ=%4˖ʈϯ0ξG¹ƂD7\|ťŔŉ]vh0ξG]co3͊˯F-̋>ĴJ!+]coK͊˯G-,GÒϵî+3τΒϒ̕3ƿĕ4\|,̽J25/E/
E/

-¹ƂH+/J'ɐ˱Βϒ̘3ËˁKΨ/H5/G]co3͊˯F4ǐʫˏ0\|0ξG]co3͊˯F0ƣıHG

4.8 Tj56q
Å·ϵ(Korpås et al., 2006.) 0DG-ΒϒƉαςEH+
0D(+į̪/ϥċ͖̠0ξǐ͉0ĥGŖś0ϥċˌϒK͒˅Gϊ0Óſˏ/¹ƂăςKͣHGşĴͤăǋ0DFϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉαKšŪ!G-į̪,G̮Ēˌϒăǋ (AGC)-ϒċ̃̐3Ĝ

Gϥċˌϒϒċ̃̐0Ĩ<ǂϙK͚Ï

Gϊ04ϥċ3ˠʺͦˏ,ûȜˏ/ǕͺK̥ǡ/H5/E/

±ŋ3˟˰4=%H=,3˟˰0+AcVbqyNŖś,ϥċˌϒȼŪ0/GŻ˼4ΖƪʋͶαŪöɂ,G-˲͙H+

FH4ȧź3ΒϒƉα3ʇˁ0}c0ǂϙGE03˟˰,4Ŗʽˏ0ûȜ%ϥċˌϒǦ3ú
ċ3Ʈʚĕđɍ0DF1 )3Ū͋ɡϥċˌϒǦK͖̠%şĴ-ɱΈ+ă̄H%Βϒ̕0DGϥċˌϒ3úċǭăŪƫ0ʑG-ȬE-/(%ï̀H%ñÆˏ/«Ì˟˰,4Ŗś3ϒċ̃̐3ΒϒƉα4 420 MW ,ɵċˌϒ 380 MW ȧ͖HȼÄ 75 MW #3Ŗś0͖̠H+

G-¹ƂH+GϮ¼ 33ϯGşĴȼAÓſˏ/ȥʀ,Aϥċˌϒ3̗͖ßƉα4 115 MW -/G

¼ 33 yŎŕƱ¡ŞŧŖś3̃̐4͆ȝ3 132 kV Βϒ̘̌΂E 420 kV 3Œó̃̐0Ι̃H+
Ʉʗ0Ó)%@0̥ǡ+ G52ģżG̮Ēˌϒăǋ4ΒϒKȼŪΊúƉα 420 MWĊıϵŖś3ϒċ̃̐͏Ɍn4 MATLAB ,Ƅ̽H+

GŖś3ϒċ̃̐͏ɌKƄ̽G%@¸3hPc\3ˉ/Gwh0ξ+Ȱνû͏̪ 1 Ȱν3Ȱ̃ý͏Ɍ 30 ƯνûƄ̽H%
 3 )3ϥċˌϒǦE3Ϯʍώ3/ϯ͋ɕĕH%%ϥċˌϒúċ ʋͶϒċα ʹ̻į̪/ʈíα ʹ̻į̪/ʈíα ͒˅ˏ/ɵċˌϒ ƦşϒċÏɕϥċˌϒǦ3ĳ_Po3ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ýKɞ˾G%@Κɰ3û͏̪KȾG 1 Ư3Ȱ̃ýϥΗnhK
̋>ĴJ!̲ˏ/ 30 Ư3Ȱ̃ýϥΗnhÉǣH+G=Κɰ3Ȱ̃ýϥΗnh 30 ƯƮŗ, 10.5 m/s -/GD0ɡȓHGɤ0 1 Ưû3Ȱ̃ý͋ɕĕHΚƮŗϥΗ0 8,760 Ȱν30 ƯKòřˏ/ϥ΄úċȸ̘Kˁ͒+˺úH++ϒċ0ťȉHGɰȰϥċˌϒ3Ĵ͒4Ğ̅0 3 )3ϥċˌϒǦ3úċKĴG´3Ȱ̃ý4 EMPS nϮŨŖśϒċƦşahϯKˁ+ÉǣH+

G3n4tQ

R3 SINTEF Energy Research ɵċˌϒ͒˅-ƦşÏɕ©ʔ3%@0μˌƦşĕ%A3,
4͆ώ/ˠʺͦˏȼΤĕn,)GŖś0Gɵċˌϒ͹ʘ3ȼΤ/ΞˁKɡȓ%A3,

[H+

G%@Ư0D(+΢ʿ+GϒċʋͶ4ɴʓ0ƣıHGDnGʋͶϒċα3κɂˏšč4̥ǡH+

ċ̃̐3 EMPS ͏Ɍ4ɵċˌϒ͒˅D7ϒċƦşÏɕ3ɔǳKȇÍG%@0ˁǏ3

GŖś,4ϥċˌϒ/,ˁG3nFɵċˌϒǦ93ʈí3ˠʺͦˏ̀ˢ-ȝŨ3ʴʽˏă̄K̥ǡ)

EH+%A3,

EMPS 4ϥċˌϒŖʽˏ0ûȜH+

/

Ėɥ3ϒ

EH+FH=,4ξ

GGĖɥ3ϒċ̃̐3͏Ɍ0āˁG-,ʵ0ϒċƦş0Gϥċˌϒ3ÏÙK͚ÏŪ͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒΙ̃H%şĴ3ȼΤ/κɂˏɵċˌϒ͒˅93ǂϙKȬE0G-,Gȥ±ŋ3\c,4EMPS n3Ȱνû͏̪4 1 Κνɰ-ÄΒϒ̸ă̄
H+

GŖś,4ϥċˌϒ-ɵċˌϒ3Ĝͤ3%@3Ȭˢˏ/ăǋǤˈ3ɑ΅ǕςEH+

3āˁ4ǐ

AèûΤü,4/

EMPS E3úċ3Ȱνû͏̪4 1 Κνɰ,ǣ+˺úGǐ͉

G%@EMPS

G%@ʋͶʈíɵċˌϒ3úċD7Ïɕ3ɰȰťĕKĴ

GɰȰ3ʋͶϒċ-ɵċˌϒ3úċ4tQR3ϒċ̃̐,͒ʔH%ΚƮŗÙ-¶̀ˏ/ȨťĒV|3˯-+ÉǣH+G´3whϮʹ̻į̪/ʈíαʹ̻į̪/ʈíαÏɕϯ3Ȱɰ3Ù4Ğ̅0Κɰ3ÙKŧǺ+ÉǣH+G

ťěϵ3˟˰̍ɍEͤɒH%%ʵƂ3̃̐,4ϥċˌϒǦ-ɵċˌϒǦKĜͤΞˁG-,ʍ
ώ3/ʽǛˏ/\c-ɱΈ+ŤϒĪíK̸ʑE-/ϥċˌϒ,ȼŪ 600 MW Kˌϒ,G-ȬE-/(%Ϯ¼ 34ϯ3-4ʹɵɸɱΈˏƕ͋ɡ,ʈí%ɵ3ŪΪûʹ̻,/Ϯʹ̻į̪/ʈíα4îÆ3 37Ϭϯ,AƄʼį̪/-ƿͤH+
H/

ϒċ̃̐

GŖś3ɵċˌϒǦϥċˌϒ0ǂϙϒʘ͒˅0ǉşĴ,AƯνϥΗ-ʈíα0DFϥċˌϒ3úċǭă0DGĪíʑ4 1Ϻ5Ϭ-Ä

ɵ

ʙ-/G
ϒċ̃̐KĜͤKG-0DFϥċˌϒ3ɱʺK˅ɂˏ0šŪ!GÈŖʿGϒċ̃̐3ɑ΅Ǖϥċˌϒ3ˠʺͦˏ,ûȜˏǕͺK̥ǡG-4įɣ,
0/G=%3ȥʀ4ΒϒƉαςEH+
˹,A

F0ˢ%ȥʀKˁ

G-,#HƉȭGŖś,ϥċˌϒǦKϒċ̃̐0Ι̃!G%@3Ĵʽˏ/ȥ

G

53

¼ 34 Ĵư@qEĮƖÆ´Ʊ¡ÞÆ$ÈƱ,/âƨ¯ƾƻ¡ǀį¡ƿ

4.9 E56qNn
Julija Matevosyan 0DGğţͦȡ “Wind power integration in power system with transmission bottlenecks”, 2006 ,4ϥċˌϒ3úċǭăKăςG%@3Βϒ̘Ǵƾ3ÏÙ0)+3̌ʐˏ͚Ïɚ͙H+

G (Matevosyan, J.

2006.)
ťěϵ̃̐KǴƾ/şĴ3cQRnĖΪ0Gĳ˭3ϥċˌϒ͖̠0DGʜú̍ɍKŹ 16 0ˢŹ 16 Şŧ×/ýƏ  Æ´ E56qNn§ƢŽƘ'0/ƻ¡ŉƱ ¡üϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα (MW)Βϒăς3;ΟϮȰνϯ
úċǭăϬ
úċǭăϬ
ϮϏȜˠʺͦˏȥʀϯ%Ϯ˖Ȃˏȥʀϯ
1,000
94
1.9
0.8
2,000
453
5
3.4
3,000
750
10.1
7.4
4,000
1019
16.7
12.4

¼ 35

2

ĞįĹ×/ƻ¡ŉƱƂÔƤ

54

ƩĆ

¡üAEOϥċˌϒ 4,000 MW 3şĴϥċˌϒ3ˌϒϒċα3 15.4ϬúċǭăHúċǭă]co 0.4 Zs/kWh-G-#Ưν]co4̄ 5.4 äZs-/GϮ¼ 35ϯ3,200 MW 3şĴ4Ưν 3 äZs0/G%
(+Ȥ%0 800 MW 3Βϒ̘KȠ͖G-,úċǭă]co4Ưν 5.4 äE 3 äZs0ʑƖGǐ͉-HG 800 MW 3Βϒ̘3]co43\c3şĴƯν 4 äZs,G%(+3şĴϥċˌϒ3úċǭăKΨG%@&0Ȥ%/Βϒ̘Kƹ͖G-4ųǀ,4/Âǐ͉-HGāʺ

10ϬΒϒ̘93Ǯ͹0ËJH+FH4ɱΈˏϩ-ǷȐ,G

¡NqHdNin?ϵΒϒ̘]co3nhʼŕƄϊ0ËJH+GΒϒ̌΂Βϒ̘93Ǯ͹āʺį̪/ϥċˌϒ3Ƕ̓ȸ̘ϥċˌϒ3úċǭă]coĊıϵǶ̓ȸ̘-āˁį̪/Ȱ̃ý0Ŝ*Ğ̅ĕ%͒˺
ÒϵcQRnĖΪ,4ϥċˌϒ0DGÈû/ϒċKʹ̻G%@0Ŗś3ȈɵƺɵċˌϒKϮ
4´3

/GŖś3ϥċˌϒAϯˁ+/

3ʧK̥ǡG-Ϯ3ͦȡ,#+G

GD0ϯΑč

GΒϒ3ÏÙ4E0Ä/GôÒϵH4ʵƂ3Ŗś0ʵĕ%˟˰,F7,000 MW Ɖα3Ū͋ɡŋ̘3ǴƾK̥ǡ+G

4.10 24jhnPNPp,4 5 ƯćEΒϒ (EirGrid Grid Code, 2008) D7άϒ (Distribution Grid Code,2007) 3ȥ,ϥċˌϒ3[kp]pμˌ0Ķ%Ū͋ɡ/īF̋>K̽(++GHE3]p4͝

̉/ĒˏnK͉ɷ+FNPp43D/μˌ3ȼć̘0˲(+(Coughlan et al., 2008) 0ŞĺH+

GH0)+4GΎƯ,4NPp3̃̐Ξˁ̦ EirGrid NPpΒϒ̃̐

2,000 km ƿ3ȹȤ-ɢ̪Ȗņ/E70Ȥ͋Βϒ̘ 1,000 km ƿ3Ƞ͖Kĸ@%Ĕǵˏ/Ǖ̪Ȗņ3ǐ͉ǕKñÆˏ0ΐ:%ŞĺȺ3Éǣ0īFǿ(+GHE3ȝÙ4¸0ɝǵGNPpîƝ̃̐˟˰ (All

Island Grid Study, 2008) 3Βϒ̘0ξGͤɒ̍ɍ-;<̯+GťěϵΒϒ̕0ξGNPpîƝ̃̐˟˰3̍ɍ0DH5õʿį̪SsYϒʘ 2.25 GWϮ' 2 GWϥċˌϒϯKĸ?o{TU 1 0ξ+4Τ˼/Ɖα3ϩŔΒϒ̘ǐ͉,Gϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺşĴŪ͋ɡ/Βϒ̘3šƿǐ͉0/GϮ¼ 17ϯo{TU 5 0ξ+4Ϯϥċˌϒ 6 GW Kĸ?õϩʿį̪SsYϒʘ 6.6 GWϯ͒ 10 äKŋGΒϒ93͹ɆǮ͹ǐ͉0/G3şĴ3Ǯ͹̗ϡ4
͖̠%õʿį̪SsYϒʘ kW%F 154 0/G

o{TU 1 KŋGõʿį̪SsYϒʘ 4.3 GW 3Ι̃0ǐ͉/Βϒ93ΑčˏǮ͹4õʿį̪S
sYϒʘ kW%F 212 0/GƯν]co0ȉ˺G-ȼŪ3ϥċˌϒƉαKǶ)o{TU0+AΑčHGϒċ]co4 1Ϻ2Ϭ˫ƴ,-,Gʩđϒċ3ί͉/ŅϠȬE0H+FH0)GŃȼŪ3ŅϠ4Βϒ0ξÅɳ3ʽ͏KǊG+E0͝ɚ͓Gǐ͉G&I
Ź 17 24jhnPÛŞŧŎŕ

ƚƱAEO

2,254 MW E 6,560 MW =,3Αč]co4Ĵ͒, kW

͖̠H%õʿį̪ϒʘϮMWϯΒϒ93Ǯ͹̗ϡ
Ϯϯ

2254
4254
6560

0.92 ä
6.68 ä
10.07 ä͖̠ kW %FΒϒ
Ǯ͹]co
Ϯϯ
41
157
154

ťě

%F 212 ,ΑčˏΒϒǮ͹]coϮϯ–––
5,76 ä
3.39 ä

G

͖̠Αč kW %F
3ΑčˏΒϒǮ͹]coϮϯ
–––
288
147

¡NqHdNin?ϵNPpîƝ̃̐˟˰3Βϒn4̃̐Ξˁ̦ EirGrid D7ĖNPP
p3̃̐Ξˁ̦0D(+ȇÍH%A3,GĊıϵ˖ʈ̃̐3ʢʈKĸ@%͏Ɍ3˶ɩ,GĔǵˏn[ǧʀāˁH+

GŨȝ3«ÌKˁ+̅́0ɹƂͦˏ/͒˅˹ƂN}j͛̽ζ͡H+FE0î+3¯ʈ̃̐3͏Ɍ̽JH+
G=%3ȥʀ4õʿį̪SsYϒʘϮ¢-+ϥċˌϒϯ3šč0D(+3>ÒHGΒϒ̕3Ǖ̪ȖņKȬE0D-%A3,GÒϵ̉͝/Ēˏ͏ɌB˝̎șϋ͏Ɍ4̽JH+

/
55



şϵ3˟˰4Ɓî/͒˅0Ŝ*A3,4/ϩɵʙ3͚Ï,FÓſ˻ʽ˷3ŅϠ4̥ǡ+/

4.11 X3nhnP
Jarno Lamponen 3Õţͦȡ (2008) ,4{Op0Gϥċˌϒ3 2 )3aqU0ǐ͉-HGϒċ
̃̐3̈́ƿ͚ÏHH4 2008 Ư3 EWEC ͦȡ (Lamponen et al., 2008) -+ŞĺH+G2,000 MW

D7 7,320 MW 4#H$H{Op3̗ϓ͉3̄ 5ϬD7 20Ϭ0˗ǀG
ťěϵ3]co4=+{Op3ȧź3̃̐šƿ0ǐ͉-HG̈́ƿ3%@3̗]co-+͒˺H/(%̈́ƿ]co3>̥ǡH%%Ϯ¼ 36ϯGɤ0ϥċˌϒ¸ŧ3ʽ˃,#H=,͒˅H+3Ïɕ04̃̐šƿ3]co3>ĸ=H+ϥċˌϒaqU7,320MW2,000MWϥċˌϒaqU7,320MW2,000MW

G
MW

̗]co
3
9,400 1 ä 4,900 %F̗]co54,000 
74,000 ϥċˌϒ͖̠0DGΑčˏ̃̐̈́ƿ]co]co
MW %F]co25,300 35,000 
800 
4,000 

¼ 36 X3nhnP/ƻ¡ŉƱ 2,000 MW  7,320 MW 

ðż/āÒ0/ŞŧźéAEOÄ ȥ3]co3͒˺,4ȧ0͒˅H%̃̐̈́ƿ3]coKʩ͌+ GHE3]co4̃̐ɝ+Ɇ˟˰,ȄƂ%D0μˌH+ / şĴ4Ⱦđ,4/

¡NqHdNin?ϵ̃̐Ξˁ̦ Fingrid DFȇÍH%cVbqyNϒċ̃̐nĊıϵQOp{M4ȧź3ťϒǦ0Ι̃H+
ϒŔÄʿ%şĴ3 PSS/E ͏Ɍ0+GÜî/̃̐

+Ȥ%0 110 kVGG

4 N-1 șϋǇ0Ο̶ͯG

44 400 kV ̘KΑč%şĴ3͏Ɍ̽JHGϥ΄0ξ+4PSS/E ϥċˌϒwk\bE DFIG nKËˁ%
ÒϵΒϒ̃̐4Ɇ˟˰3˕ˏ0ǉ

-Kƿͤ+25/E/
GşĴ4Ⱦđ,4/

͖͒H̃̐Ξˁ̦ Fingrid ˹Ƃ%͒˅-̯+Ēˏǂϙ0ξςƂˏ0ûɌ+H4Ğ/GÕţͦȡ,

G0Ο/

G

G%@Χǰ̨3͒˺4̽(

̃̐3̈́ƿ]co4Ɇͺˏ0ȧź3̃̐0D(+

ɹ=G3]co4Ȱν0D(+ˉ/Fˌϒ«ɛ̦Ι̃GhP[0ƣıHG

KȠ͖%Ǉ,Ȥ%/̈́ƿ3ǐ͉ǕʿGć0͆ȝ3ˌϒ«ɛ̦Ι̃GşĴ
3Ǉ,4Ȥ%/Βϒ̘BťϒǦ-(%A3ǐ͉0/G%(+Ā3hPˌϒǦ,4îĀ3̃̐̈́ƿ]coʿGį̪Ǖ
+E

ʧA



şϵ3̍ɍ4Ĕǵˏ˟˰0Ŝ*A3,4/+E/

HE3]co4̲0̃̐3μˌɆ˟˰,͚Ï%A3-ˉ/(+ĳ˭3Χǰ̨KɱΈ+(+HE3ȝÙK6-)3hP

GɆÕţͦȡ,ˁ)3Βϒ̘GʵƂ3Ȱν3Ì

[,Ι̃H%ĵϥċG3˟˰,4̃̐4Ζƪ-ĵȥʀ,͒˅H+G̃̐3Ǯ͹͒˅46-)&,[0ʿǊG«Ì-+ǩ¸ŧ3˕ˏ0Ë:,4/

G%


4.12 Ŝ½
20 MW ¸3}bRZo0Gϥ΄3̃̐Ι̃0ƐùG%@3̀Œ3[kp]p 2005 Ư 12 Ƚ0
ˌ̀H% FERC Ƿ· 661-A ,ΐ:EH+»0)+ΐ:EH+

G3Ƿ·3¢͉ɉϚ04LVRTʩđϒċD7 SCADA 3͉

GLVRT 0ξ+49 _PZ=,3Ζƪ3șϋσĦȰν3 3 ˗șϋˌʿ%şĴ

D7 2008 ƯDFć0ËˁH+%ˌϒǦ3ȫŔťŔŉϩŔÝ, 15 p.u.DFÄĦΝƸĞ˗Ŗ̎șϋʿ%şĴ,AˌϒɢKΙ̃+ǐ͉ϒŔnOk}3ϊ0«șσG3ϒŔnOk}͉»4 2008 Ư

0 0.0 p.u.0ǴŪH%ʩđϒċ͉»0ξ+4eXmO-ÔϟƴˠÓ3%@0ǐ͉-HGşĴϥċˌϒǦ,4ĒˏϒŔ̔ǶKĸ@ċʺ ±0.95 KÍ̏,/H5/E/
56

SCADA 0ξ+4ϥċˌϒǦ4̃̐Ξˁ̦-3ν,ĴǜH%ǐ͉/ǚŞKȇÍ/H5/E/
ȥĸ=HGşĴA

4.12.1 ÑÒå

3ǚŞ0ϒċwh-ɴͮnh3GŎŕ ǁ Reqgq>:iX8jR2

ϥċˌϒ̃̐3Ēˏw{Tc0Ĩ<ǂϙK¼ 37 0ˢ (GE Energy, 2005)3͏Ɍ4ΖƪrZơ0G 345 kV 3ί͉/ɯ̘0ξG 3 ˗șϋKσĦG%@3A3,ʺ,¬ί̏ϒ͟Ɣɢ0DGϥċˌϒϮ33,000 MW ̃̐0 3,300 MWϯK¹Ƃ+
3̍ɍ0͊EHGD0ϥċˌϒǦźŕGşĴźŕ/G3͏Ɍ,4 10%3Ɣí

GGE PSLF ͒˅Kˁ%͏ɌşĴDFAϒŔșϋǇ0DF΍Η0ŋǌʑ́Aϩ/G=%Βϒ̘3ʢʈ4UvaoƖ/ʑ́Aϩ/G¼ 37 Şŧ¥ŊVX8q`nE×/ƻ¡ŉƱëƳ

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Ɣˌϒɢ

G

G¬ί̏ϒ͟

4{]vhKǶ)ĵɂˌϒɢ3ËˁKǛƂ%şĴ#H$H3ˌϒɢǶ)ʩđϒċ0ƐGăǋǕ0DF3Βϒ͖̃̐͒˟˰,¹Ƃ%ϕɧřʩđϒċ̈́å̠͂3Αč͉0/Gį̪Ǖ
G/"/E5Ȥ%0͖̠G:+3ϥċˌϒǦʩđϒċ3ϕˏĒˏ/ăǋǕKΤü0̋>ĴJ!G
-0DFċʺ ±0.95 - WECC ͉»Kʗ%+GE,

GĒˏ/ăǋ˽ŏ3ȼÄς3͉»KɹƂG%@04E/GûɌǐ͉-/G3-4ʩđϒċ3ĒˏăǋǕKß%ϥċˌϒǦ0DFΒϒ̃̐
0GĒˏ/ʩđϒċ̈́å̠͂ǐ͉//Gį̪Ǖ

G-Kˢł+G

4.12.2 ƚƱ4nXhǄ:iX8jR2ÜM<BEÜV{TrNơ3 CEC ˟˰ (Porter et al., 2007) 3ΒϒP{0ξG̍ɍEΣωŖ3õʿį̪Ss
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-0/GȘ˹ϗ,4î+3hPc\0+Gϥċˌϒ3ť

Gϥċˌϒ3ŖʽˏûȜŪ/G-Βϒ̘3āˁʺϩ=G+ϥċˌϒǦ3úċ©ʔKE0ʇˁG-ŰĐH

GNhPƂɕB̃̐3ĳȂʧ-3©ʔͤȞăǋ/.ȧź3Βϒ̘3āˁKǴŪG-Ű

57

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G̶ͯȼÄȰ0ƿϥĹE0ǉɊřɵċˌϒ3ɑ΅ǕÄʶɿĵȰ0ˌʿG-(%˪/ʶɿ,4įťˏ/õʿį̪SsYϒʘ3úċǭăǐ͉-/Gį̪Ǖ
CREZ ƚƱZlFE

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G

đĉϵΟĦ 10 ƯνmX_cơ,4ϒċ3Ϥƅϓ͉Kʗ%%@ϒċƕŤ«ɛ̦0õʿį̪SsY3ƂαKˠÓG-K̢ēµ+%mX_cõʿį̪o{TUŜʙ (RPS) 4Ū/ǣČKĪ@+FŪ͋ɡ/ϥċˌϒ3͖̠0DF#3˕ɠKȪɂ0ΡǣG-,+Gϥċˌϒ3μˌ4¢-+mX_cơ͈ΪɋΪ0ύ¡+

4 Panhandle,,̽JH+

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şĴ

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7#3]coŋĪ0ƐùG%@CREZϮ˵ªˏõʿį̪SsYŖƨϯ}ecKμŵ%CREZ }ec3,4mX_cơïː«ɛŶŁ¾ (PUCT) ƿϥ3į̪Ǖ3GŖƨKȬE0GɛēKͥͯ(+GϮ¼ 38ϯPUTC 4HE3ŖƨKmX_cơ3̃̐Ξˁ̦ (ERCOT) 3Ď͐-ûɌȕȌKǊ+ǷƂH
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aqU 2 4Ȥ͋3 345

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G¼ 38 PUCTƾ2008ƿÿÒ0 ERCOT ³À

4.12.3 Ŝ½

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58

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G#3%@˟˰KɱΈD-G34Τü,4/Ğ0==/ʶɿ0G==/ϥ͹ʘKāˁGϊ3Ι3Βϒ]coKͤɒG-ɀ=3ûɌ,4¢-+ĳ˟˰ˢłGΒϒ]co3ĞÃ]co0ʃ˕%

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G-4͐/
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0G%@0Βϒ̕K͚Ï% AEP Interstate Transmission Vision D7 NREL Wind Deployment System (WinDS)
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B N-1 Ŝʙ/.3Ôϟƴ3

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4̸ƍ÷ɴØ,ϥ΄ĒÉʓƴŧ-/FÛɧGşĴ/.0ξÑ

G%(+ϖƪ0ί͉/-4ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbkoK͒˺G%@3ðΖ3ɴͮɉ»G)=FƄͺˏ0Ɩ/-A 1 Ưν3ϥċ0GϥċˌϒD7̶ͯ3}{MPKËˁG-,ˌϒ-̶ͯ3ɰȰnh4ĵȵƯnhKËˁ/H5/E/

ϥċˌϒ}{MP-ˌϒϒċα4Ư

0D(+ˉ/G%@̃̐3ȼAŅϠ-/GzZ̶ͯ˪0ʿ/ɜÙˏ/ūØ0ξÑ+ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯKĵɂ%ÇƯû3ϮȼÄ 10 ƯʽǛˏ04 30 Ưϯnh0Ŝ*
koK͚ÏGǐ͉GşĴ+ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbGϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbkoK͚Ï+GŒA,03ȄƂʤċˌϒǦDFAƉαZbkoÄ
͉,

-,

GE0ūØ4ϒċʋͶ0Aϥċˌϒ0AǂϙGHE3̐͒ˏξÑK˖Ȃ͒˺G30ϥċˌϒǦGşĴAG=%˶ 2 3ȥʀ3G#HƱ̽JH+ϥċˌϒ0ξ+̽JH+

Gϥċˌϒ3ˮãȰν4Ưν 2,000~3,000 Ȱν-şĴŨ

GJ,4/

]coGşĴɨɱΈG-4ίc̶ͯ3ʤċˌϒ,4ɝ2

6,000~7,000 Ȱν,G)=FƯν0ĵα3ϒċαKǊG04ʤċˌϒKŋGϥċˌϒ3Ɖα3Αčǐ͉&-Gϒċ̃̐0GSsYʿˀ3Χǰ̨3ɱΈ4ĵŜʙ/J'Ưν3ˌϒϒ

ċαKˁ

-,

+̽J25/E/

]co3ɱΈ04Ζƪ3ĞÃˁƯν3ˌϒϒċαĵʤċˌϒǦ3ÙDFABBÄ
KǜļG-Aα΀cZHE 2 )3ƉαZbko3΢

G3]co4ɨƺ04ϥċˌϒG-͊/HGşĴ
0Ο/

G
-

-,

G-ί͉,G)=F Ɖα]co

HGƉα3]co4ϥċˌϒ MW

Ɖα]co-KǜļG,ˇǜ:G%(+3Ɖα3Αčǽ

-0/GˮãȰνϖƪ0˝

3͊˯F04cϒʘ,4/U}_PZWchy (OCGT)o (DSM) Kˁ4ʤċˌϒKΑč%ϒċ̃̐0ĵ˫ƴ3Ɖ

E3Ɖα3Αčǐ͉&-

-4Αč%ƉαKËˁG34ƯνȝȰν΀E
úα0Ĩ<ǂϙ4J

EHGϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko4

G%@]coϗE4]coG

4np_Ppsb

4Ɖα΀-ĵcZKÓ)%@0Αč%F 2Ϻ4 -ɱΈˏÄϡ0/G (Söder & Amelin, 2008)

5.1.1 ƛĩŊƸådNj
ƉαZbko4̶ͯϥċϒʘǉɊřϒʘƉαKĸ?͆ȝ3Ȱ̃ýnhKˁ̐͒ʔEƔ

%ˠʺͦˏ/Ù,%ȰνϜś0G̃

GΔɤˏ/ÙEϞƴûƧ9-ťȉG==/ȥʀ0DFĳ˭3Ɖ

αZbko3͒˺ȥʀKɆͺˏ0ĘĀG-,GȰνcmk}ɰ3͏Ɍ

G

4Δɤˏ͏Ɍǧʀ,4ϥċˌϒ3ɰȰ

G

4 15 ûɰ3̗úċKɰȰ

4 15 ûɰ3̶ͯnhEƤƻɬF3ϒċKÌ5 “National Grid model” 3D/c\b[G
G

4Ôϟƴn0DFāˁį̪/ǉɊřϒʘ0ĉFǀ+GEHG (Giebel, 2000)3Δɤˏǧʀ,4¸364

-ǐ͉0/Gϵ1.

ͤɒɂνó3ɨˠ/̶ͯ3Ȱ̃ýnh2.

̶ͯ-ĵɂν3ϥċˌϒ3vPNcH+

3.

ǉɊřϒʘƉα3Ɓî/co-ƿăÛɧʺ

4.

˕ɠ-GÔϟƴ̀Œ,ΎƯƄȦH%˟˰,4̶ͯ-ĵɂνKˁ/Ȱ̃ýnh%ͺ3ϩϥċˌϒnhËJH+G#H0DFHE3ĵɂH%Ȱ̃ýnhKΔɤˏÔϟƴn93íċnh-+ËˁG3,

H5ϥċˌ

ϒ̃̐NnVa0.3˫ƴͰʸGKȼAʼƄˏ0͚ÏG-,Gϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ4Ư0D(+ˉ/G%@į̪,+κɂˏϮʽǛˏ04 10Ϻ30 Ưϯ/ûH5ĵɂH%ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ3nhKˁɌK̽-ί͉0/GA/H5Δɤˏ/mVûɌKˁʀȰ̃ýˏ/ϥċˌϒ3 1 ȨɰG

4Ż˼ɰ3ʵǎKÓǶ+GşĴ0ςGǇ̦3şĴȼAŅ

Ϡ-/GzZ̶ͯ-ϥċˌϒ-ĥƋ0̯GȰνƨǊEH/

5.1.2 ÔƤ>kDKO

G-,GÂmV

-0/G

ƷåßƀŚı

ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko3͒˺04Ɩ/-A 10 Ưû3ĵɂH%̶ͯ-ϥċˌϒ3ɰȰ}{MPKˁGǐ͉GDENA ˟˰/.3Ũ3˟˰0G-ȬE0/(++ͤɒ%ϒċ̃̐3̶ͯ}{MP΀+G6-)3Χǰ̨-+HE3˟˰3Ϊ,4ϥċˌϒ3úċϞƴȝûƧKõʼG-0D(+ƉαZbkoK͒˺+GϮ̶ͯǶ̓Ȱνȸ̘ʀ-AĽ5HGϯƉαZbko3ϞƴûƧ4QOp{M3Ɖα3şĴƉαZbkoKϒʘϮϥċˌϒǦ

GG

4 ELCC 0Ŝ*+Ƃ̢G-,G

4ǉɊřˌϒǦϯ3ˠʺûƧ-̶ͯǶ̓ȸ̘ίˊ+͒˺HGA6-) DENA ˟˰,āˁH%34ϒʘ3ˠʺûƧ3>Kc0ƉαZbkoKˠƂGȥʀ,GϮ¼ 34 KɱΈħʮ3-ϯÂ3ȥʀ4˕ɠÙ0ΧL&Ôϟƴ0εȚ,ϒ̃̐3ϒʘNnVa0.ͰʸGKƄϊ0͚ÏG-04/E/
ϒK̃̐0Αč%şĴϒċ΀3cZϮLOLP

GF%(+ϥċˌ=% DENA ˟˰,4ϥċˌ

4ĵɟ3Ƿɠϯ.3D0ťĕGK̥ǡ+/%(+ DENA 3ǧʀ,4ϥċˌϒ̃̐3ϒʘNnVa0.ͰʸGK͚ÏG-,

/=%ϒʘ3ˠʺûƧ3>0Ŝ*ƉαZbkoKƂ̢GşĴÌ5 ELCC 0Ŝ*Ƃ̢-ɱΈ+̸ˉ/GÙ0/F2/

ʧ0ʃǜǐ͉,G (Amelin, 2008)

ϥċˌϒKĸ@%̃̐3Ôϟ,GƉα4ǉɊřˌϒǦ3ˠʺKˁ
,ɹƂH+rko+ϥċˌϒ3ˠʺƋƴKίˊG-G(Dena, 2005, Ilex & Strbac, 2002) 3˟˰,4͖̠%î+3ϥċˌϒK 1 )3ϥċˌϒ-Ƃ̢+G3ύĴĕH%%

ϥċˌϒ|kZ

ϒ3ˮãʺ0ξGκɂˏ̐͒Ẽ̐3cZϩνϮLOLP ϩ G-3,GˠʺKɹƂG-,GÔϟƴ3n,4cZ3ŪvPNcKˠƄ0ǽσG%@ʵƂ3ȰνD0G-ɀ=

G

4ĵɟ3Ƿɠ3νϯˮãGɂνͤ:EH+

G°ʨˏ

4ȨȝûɌ0ËˁG%@0«ć0ͤɒHG-3/ƉαZbko4˕ɠ-GcZ,3 2 )3Ôϟƴȸ̘ϮϥċˌϒKÀ̃̐D7ÀJ/
̐ϯν3΢



3úċ3ˠʺξȝKɹƂG%@ϥċˌ-+͒˺+

ϒċ̃G¼ 40 4ϒʘ3ǫ̾ˏˮãʺ0Ŝ*ˠʺK̥ǡ%şĴǉɊřϒʘϮʤċˌϒD7Ū͋ɡɵċˌϒϯ3Ɖα˕ɠ-GcZ0D(+.ťĒGKˢ+
Ő3 c ʧ4Ôϟƴ3˕ɠÙKͼ̘4ϥċˌϒKÀJ/ϟƴȸ̘Kˢd ʧ- e ʧν3΁Ϗϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko,

65

G3

şĴ3Ôϟƴȸ̘Kϔ̘4ϥċˌϒKÀşĴ3Ô
G

¼ 40 ƻ¡ŉƱÔƤƄÔƤ$ÏłƾDENA ŎŕĆÄ[DENA, 2005]ƿ

a. ǉɊřϒʘ3͖̠Ɖα, b. ǉɊřϒʘ3ˮãį̪Ɖα, c.Í̏Ó͙d. Í̏Ó͙0Ŝ*ϥċˌϒϱǉɊřϒʘ3Ó͙Ɖαe. Í̏Ó͙0Ŝ*ǉɊřϒʘ3Ó͙Ɖα, f. ϥċˌϒ3Ó͙Ɖα϶ ƉαZbkoϞƴûƧǧʀ,4ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ý4ǉɊřˌϒǦ3ˮãʺ-̋>ĴJ!EH˖'0ϒċ3ˠʺƋƴ0ťȉHG3ǧʀKˁ

G¢%Gʽ˃4Τü/Ȱ̃ýnh/,4ϥċˌϒ3ťĒEǚŞKǊG-4,
Kˁ

/

E,

G3ϞƴûƧǧʀϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ3˗ξξÑK̥ǡ%ɨļ̶ͯ3ϞƴûƧςFΔɤˏǧʀ-ĵ˫ƴ3ɨˠǕKǊG-4,/ϞƴûƧǧʀ,4ɤ3Ϛ˕ǐ͉0/G
1.

ͤɒɂν¡3̶ͯ3ɨˠ/Ȱ̃ýnh2.

̶ͯ-ĵɂν0ɨˠ0̀-3,GȽɰ

3.

ǉɊřϒʘ3Ɖα-ƿăÛɧʺ3Ɓî/co

4.

˕ɠ-GÔϟƴϥċˌϒ3ϞƴûƧ̀ˢKˁ

GşĴH4ûɌ,ˁ

H5ĳƯ3ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ3nhKˁG4Ż˼ɰ0ˉ/Gϥċˌϒ3ˠʺƋƴ%̶ͯƯȝ-̯+%ûɌ3̍ɍʩđ0/Gį̪Ǖ/H5/EA/GÔϟƴn3Ũ4ǉɊřϒʘ3ʶǞK̟FΏi0_}[GmVûɌKƄȦ,G͒˺H4]coGDFɨˠ0̃̐3Ā3ʶǞ3cZK͚Ï,Gώ/ˠʺͦˏɞΘKǶ)%@;-L.3Ϯ î+ ,4/4ϥċˌϒ04Τ/į̪ǕGʵ0̶ͯ3zZǔƞ/Ϯ)=Fϩ̶ͯ3ȰϯşĴϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko3ɨˠ/ÙK˜G%@043D/ʶɿ

3ϥċˌϒ3ûƧK̀-įɣ,

5.1.3 }Gϥċˌϒ4DF͆

GmVA4´3ȥʀ3͏Ɍ3ͣϠ4ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯťĒ-3˗ξKɨ̀ʼG-,Gķ0(+νƯνKΖ+;-L./ko

0!DϯnȇÍGmVőȾ3̪ċ

G

Ċıϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko3Ôϟƴ͚Ï3%@3͒˺-nh͉»4ɱΈˏĥƋ,)μˌH+%D7±ǇμˌHG,

IȤ%/ǧʀKĸ?ϯAH/

FĞ̅/ȥʀ3μˌ0ξǏύ=(+˝ɂν3nheko0Τˁ,GD

Gʵ0̀Œ,43áĶϢ̸,0Ƃ̢%zZɂν0ξ͒˺HGϥċˌϒ3āˁʺ0Ŝ*A3,ʙȬˠ,ûFȭ̃̐3ʶɿ0ξΙ!G-,Gʧ,/GzZȰν-ϥċˌϒ-ĥƋ0̯GʧK̥ǡ,/̃̐ġɢ0ȱHGȰνƨ3͚ÏBʵƂ,/A3,

G%@ɝ˺ȥʀ

Gϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko3ȼAŝƄ/͚Ïȥʀ4Ôϟƴ0Ŝ*ȥʀϮΎƯμˌH

H5LOLPLOLE

ZʿGį̪Ǖ

G

ʧ,GĞ̅ĕ%ȥʀ4ΖƪΤü
G3ǧʀ3ko4ʔƂŜ

G3ǧʀ3ɣʧ4˶ 1 0ȼAŅϠ--,˶ 2 0̶ͯ#H;.ϩ/+AGˌϒƉα3ŪΪûΖƪɂ3̔Ƕ˻ʽ0ξG

4 LOEE ̸ϩ/Gį̪ǕFzZɂνŧ0ʩ͌,/c

G

LOLP c3ȥʀ-ˉ/GÔϟƴc3ǧʀ0AξǏϩ=(+
66

GLOLP Kͤ:GDFAE/Gϓ̏ͤȞ#3´3ϥċˌϒ0ͽŌG̃̐Ξˁ̦3īF̋>Kǐ͉-GʶǞ0Ɛ+3̃̐ˌƙGˠʺ0ʪʧKǀ+ʶǞȄ˩3ˠʺKͤ:G-4Ⱦː,
ǇA˟˰̽JHG͊Ό>,

G-̥EHG(Doherty & O’Malley 2005)3ûΰ,4±Fϥċˌϒ3̌ϨˆĳŖ,̺˯H+¡ŒϊĜċ0DF3ȼé˴3īF̋>KćΛ!G-,G-ǓJHG

5.1.4 IEEE ġƢ
2007 ƯIEEE 3 Power and Energy Society (PES) 4Wind Power Coordinating Committee KΖ+ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko0ξGÉɛΪ¾K͖˲%3ÉɛΪ¾4 2008 Ư 7 Ƚ0zklv[,Ưɤ¾ĴKǶ'Ū0ȕǶH%ws¾ͫKƄȦ%ʼŕ3ÉɛΪ¾,43m0ξG˟˰ͦȡKÉǣ+F
H4 2009 Ưþϝ0Ɓǣ©Ƃ,GH=,3͓ͫ,ȬE0H%¢͉/ʧK=-@G-¸3D0/G ̶ͯnh-3˗ξKǻ%ͺ3ϩ
0Ⱦː,ĵɂH%Ȱ̃ýnhKāˁ,GD0G-4ϖƪ

F3͒˺KˠƄ0̽-,Gķ4nh3α0Ū0ƣıHG ΎÁ4ΨG-ɀ=Ɓî/Í̏ÔϟƐǑ̪ċ (ELCC) 3͒˺Ɓî/ȥʀ,ÙKˁ

GşĴ4ϖƪ0ǟίKɂ-͉ɷHGĳ˭3˟˰,ˉ/GƂ̢ˁ

GΎÁ

EH+

G

şĴĳ˟˰,ǊEH%ƉαZbko3ɱΈͣϠ-/G (Söder & Amelin, 2008; Amelin, 2008.)


Ɖα]co -

ˁ͠Kˁ

+

GŞĺȺA

ǉɊřˌϒǦ3ƉαZbko-3Ƥˉ,G#3ǜļ4ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko-G3şĴ3]coKΟŪ͚Ï/D0

G (Söder & Amelin, 2008.)

ȼAƀÏ/̈́åK̥ǡGǐ͉

5.2 P4L
ƉαZbko0ξ+4ϥċˌϒȇÍGϮ̐͒ˏ0ϯÓ͙H%Ɖα3šč/J'Í̏3ÔϟƴKăς!

-AƁî0Ʒɘ,GǉɊřˌϒǦ3Ɖα4Í̏3Ôϟƴ 99Ϭ3şĴϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα̄14.5 GWϮ2003 Ưϯ,4 6Ϻ8Ϭ̄ 36 GWϮ2015 Ưϯ,4 5Ϻ6Ϭ,ϥ΄úċ3ˠʺξȝ3ÚƤɂν3Χǰ4ί͉/ŌŸ,Kϥ΄úċ3ˠʺξȝ3ÚƤɂν-G:,
4 12 Ƚ3ĚǇΝ3Ȱνƨ0ʿ+
1 Ƚ2 Ƚϯ3îȨ3ǝƴ͒˺̽JH+

G

GʽǛˏ04ƯνzZ̶ͯƄϊ0ʿGɂν

G1994 ƯE 2002 Ư0+ƯνzZ̶ͯ4 11 ȽG3̍ɍɨˠ,GƮŗÙE3ĳ3ǝƴ͒˺3}cÚƤ-PqcÚƤ42003

Ư,4#H$H +1Ϭ–1.5Ϭ,H4 2015 Ư04 +0.5Ϭ–0.7Ϭ¸0(+
4ʩ͌,G-͊/-,#H¸ρ3͒˺,4̥ǡ+¼ 41 âƨWq>ƎŷĐ

ƻƓ

GG-Kˠ͞G%@öɂνϮ11 Ƚ12 ȽƂÔƤƽőƻƓ

/GϮ¼ 41ϯHE3Ƥˉ

F<eiM3ƄÔƤ

/áÁÇàł

(DENA, 2005)͖̠%ϥ΄0άû,GΑč:eXmOÓ͙Ɖα4Í̏3Ôϟƴ0ƣıHG3ǂϙKûɌ
G%@Í̏Ôϟƴ 97Ϭ98Ϭ99Ϭ3şĴ3ǝƴ͒˺̽JH+
67

GÍ̏3Ôϟƴ0ΧL&

ƯνzZ̶ͯȰʧ3ϥ΄3ʵƂ3eXmOÓ͙Ɖα0Ĩ<ǂϙ4J¼ 42 ŦƸå×/âƨWq>ƎŷĐļ

/ƻƓ

,

GϮ¼ 42 ħʮϯ

F<eiM3ƄÔƤÇ¢×/õåϥ΄3eXmOÓ͙Ɖα4Ż˼0D(+ˉ/Fȯɂ-öɂ0ȼŪ0/GŦɂ04#HDFA̸Ä/GϮŹ 18 ħʮϯ
Ź 18 ƻƓ
2003
öɂ
ȯɂ
Ŧɂ
ˤɂ

8.3%
8.6%
6.1%
7.2%

öɂ
ȯɂ
Ŧɂ
ˤɂ

1.199
1.245
889
1.040

F<eiM3ƄÔƤ ÐśŊÇ¢ (DENA, 2005)
2007
2010
ϥ΄3͖ßƉα0ƐGɱʺ
6.9%
6.5%
7.2%
6.9%
5.3%
5.4%
6.1%
5.9%
MW
1.542
1.941
1.605
2.057
1.187
1.599
1.352
1.750

Ċıϵϒċ̃̐îÆ3eXmOÓ͙Ɖα)3ɭχ0GnKˁ

2015
6.0%
6.4%
5.1%
5.5%
2.163
2.289
1.824
1.970

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E0ʵǎµG-,G3˕ˏ3%@3òřˏ/οÙ42 ɤ©ßċ3ñÆˏ/Ù Gį̪/ȼŪ3ϒʘ,GÌ5ć̦,ŪH53ʶǞ4Üî,

4̃̐,ˮã

H5āˁį̪/ϒʘƉα-̶ͯ3Ƥǐ͉-HG 2 ɤ©ßċDFG-͊/HGÜîʶǞK͏ɌG-,¸3Ⱦː/ǷɠǊEHG

 EHϵ©ǛHGÜî/Ȱν̃̐ÜîʶǞ0 EMϵ©ǛHGςˆȰν̃̐ςˆʶǞ0GɂνϮƯϯ¡3ȰνȝϮȰν/ƯϯGɂνϮƯϯ¡3ȰνȝϮȰν/Ưϯ FH, FMϵ#H$HÜîʶǞ-ςˆʶǞ3©ǛHGϞƴ DH, DMϵ#H$H̃̐ÜîʶǞ-ςˆʶǞ0G-©ǛHGɂν3}bRZo3ί͉/ʵǎ36-)4ΞΆ©ßċ3͚Ï,̐3ʵǎ0DFΞΆ©ßċ4#H;.Ɖα3Ū/ɵċˌϒϯ,ǁǣHGÔϟƴ3˟˰-GoW-cP3 2 )3ϒċ̃

2 ɤ©ßċ-ŪαͽĒ3Η

3 ɤ©ßċϮ¢-+Ɏ̋>,4ȧź3ϒʘϓ͉ʿ%şĴ0ęû/©ßċKÍ̏,Gɚ͙HG)=Fȧź3ϒʘ©Ǜŧ3ϥċˌϒD7̶ͯťĒE04Í̏Ûɧ0˖ϗ%şĴǐ͉/ƉαKęû0Í̏G-,G--,GϮ¼ 49ϯɂν t ,4©ʔ̶ͯ-ǐ͉-HG 1 ɤD7 2 ɤ©ßċ3ñÆˏɉ»Kʗ%%@3ȼÄς3ȝ3ϒʘKĒŁGǐ͉

GE0ΞΆ©ßċKƁî/A30:1 Ȱν¸ó0ˮã,GϒʘƂ@EHGŐ0ˢ% 3 ɤ©ßċ0ΑčHGƉα4ϒʘ3ˌϒƉα3ϏȜˏǕͺ0DGA3,
3}bRZo4ƉαZbko3͚ÏK˕ˏ-%A3,4/

GɆ}bRZo3cZ͚ÏȥʀKāˁ+ϥċˌϒKΑčGć-cZĵ˫ƴ0/G=,ʤċˌϒǦ3ȝKʑE-0DFȤ%0Αč

73

Gϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbkoK͚ÏG-,G3ȥʀ,4ˌϒ̃̐3̲ˏ/NnVa3>/EΞΆ©ßċ0ξÑGcZ3˫ƴK͒˺+3ǐ͉Ǖ0Ĩ<ǂϙ4ˆ¡,==,HGį̪Ǖ

G-K̥ǡG-ϥċˌϒˌϒƉα-ΞΆ©ßċ

G%@ʵƂ3̃̐3ƉαZbko0ξ+42 )3ÙǊE

G

¼ 49ǄƟƕx¡2N:Cqģò¡NqHƻ¡ŉƱϵoW-cP4#H$H 7 ŖśD7 18 Ŗś0ûĉH+
4Ι3ɵċˌϒD7ϥċˌϒî+ĵ˷3ˠʺ,
ɿ (H-) G

G3˟˰,GĳƯ3ŜʙaqU&,/ȼAǙɵʽˏʶ43ʶɿ0č+ĵȰ0ϥċˌϒ3úċʑƖ̔Ƕ˻ʽšč%ʶɿ (HWM) 0ƐǑ%

DFcoc3ϩ

aqUAǛƂH+

G=%ȼAͭƌ/ɵʽŽʶɿ (H+) 3aqUA͏ɌH+Gɵċˌϒ3āˁį̪ǕKn[G%@16 ƯûϮ1990Ϻ2005 Ưϯ3ɰȽ3ɵʽˏʶɿˁ

EH+G
ťěϵoWϮD7cPϯ0ξ+#H$H¸3Ƿɠ͒˺H+G ̃̐NnVa0ξGǉɊ3ÔϟƴǷɠϮLOLPLOLEˌϒ̪©ʔϒċ (EENS) ˷ϯ ÜîǕ3Ƿɠ ΞΆ©ßċ3ÔϟƴǷɠϮLOLP ˷ϯH04ĳ̃̐3Ŝʙ«Ì3>/Eˮãʺ3ʑƖ-ƖϑƯϥċˌϒ3(%ĳ˭aqUĸ=HGΑčˏ˟˰,4ʵƂ3cZǷɠ͒˺H+GϮÌ5Ʒɘ©ǛHGõʿį̪SsYϯLOLE 3̍ɍK¼ 50 D7 51 0ˢ3̃̐3ǁʶ4ɰƯťĕȤ%/ˌϒǦΑčHĀ3ˌϒǦȑĦH+

-0ʃǜ/H5E//

=%͖̠%ϥċˌϒ3͋ɡ4ɰƯťĕϮšč+ϯ̶ͯAɰƯščG3͏Ɍl3ί͉/ʵǎ4cZǷɠ3ɰȽ3ÙK͒˺,G-,ȬE0ʵƂ3Ƚ0cZύ¡+G¼ 52 4oW3Ì,

G-JGΙ̘̃3ǂϙ·̶ͯνȰν0õʿį̪SsYƷɘHGcZȤ͋ϒʘ-Ȉɵˌϒ0DGȤ͋©ßċ©ßċ0Ĩ<ǂϙKE0˟˰#3̍ɍǊEH+

GÔϟƴ3̲ˏ/ǷɠϮLOLPLOLEELCCϯ

0č+ƮŗÙ3̩Ǉ0

Giťȝ3ˠʺûƧǊEH+

G#H0DFƮŗÙ&,/cZKDFʌ˜G-į̪,GÌ5¼ 53 3şĴȼAˠʺ3ϩʶɿϮˠʺ 61.8Ϭϯ4ɫ.ʩ͌,GÛϒȰν0ƐǑ+
ƿ,

GGƯν̄ 3 Ȱν3ÛϒʿGˠʺ4̄ 10ϬƯν 6 Ȱν¸3ÛϒʿGˠʺ4 1.5ϬG74

¼ 50 _jO;j¼ 51 E\4nŎŕĠƁCQi9ŎŕĠƁCQi9

rƢ

rƢ

¼ 52 iE>75

/Ɵƕx¡uƑ,.āÒ0/ LOLE

/Ɵƕx¡ĕƨÉ¥uƑ,.āÒ0/ LOLE

¼ 53 _jO;j/ 2015 âƟƕx¡

2N:CqƩ/Őłß3͏Ɍl4ƉαZbko3ÙK˖Ȃ͒˺G-3}bRZo3˕ˏ,4/3˭3͚Ï0ˁ-+A

G-,GϮÌ5cZ3K̔Ƕ))==/ˌϒ3¶Ȼ-ǊGʤċˌϒƉαK͛̽ζ͡0D(+͊)G-,Gϯ-0ʃǜ:,G

5.7 Ŝ½
̀Œ0GϥċˌϒǦ3ƉαZbko͒˺ȥʀ-+ɟ0͞@EH+ˌϒǦ3ƉαZbkoKɹƂG%@3ƐǑ̪ċ (ELCC) ,

ϫβǆ

Gǧɭ-

-+̲0ĬíHEH+A34/

G34Ⱦđ/Í̏ÔϟƴGϥċˌϒ3 ELCC 4̸ˉ/(+F¢-+̃̐3cZϩŋȝϮ̶ͯȎŮ3ˠʺ

GϥċʶɿʿG

4#H-ĵ˷3ʔƂŜʙ-Ƃ̢HGϯ0ƐGϥċˌϒÍ̏3hP

GϥċˌϒǦ3ƉαZbko4ϥċˌϒǦ3ƂɕƉα3̄ 5ϬE 40Ϭ=,μ[0ÎźG-ˢH+GŹ 20 (Milligan & Porter, 2008) ,4̀ŒĳŖ,ËˁH%==/ȥʀB0ǊEH%̍ɍ3Ϊˢ
H+GΪ3«Ì,4˿ˈĕ%ȥʀKˁ

3.11.1 ƴ,͢Ȭ%+Ôϟƴ3ĥƋ/ûɌ3ΎÁÙ˺úH+

G

sghơńɛƘ- Enernex 3˟˰,42010 Ư0GzZ̶ͯ 10 GW ̃̐0Gϥċˌϒ 1,500 MW 3aqU0Ɛ+ϥċˌϒĨ<ǂϙ͚ÏH+
0DFƉαZbko4 26Ϻ34Ϭ,ƔíʺK 25Ϭ-%ȼȤ3˟˰4

G-ȬE0H+

G

GELCC ʀKˁsghơîÆ3̶ͯ0ƐGϥċˌϒ

kpQRco3ʷ˲̃̐Ξˁ̦ MISO 3˻΋Ϝś0ęû0μˌH%Ʀş

źŕG-¹Ƃ+̽(%Ϯ3.11.2 ƴħʮϯϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko4̸E 20Ϭƿ=,ϯ3ǂϙKìH/%Ι3¹Ƃ

ƯνťĒϮ͖̠Ɖα3 5Ϭ̀Œ0GȼΎ3 2 )3˟˰,4ϥċˌϒ3͆ȝƯƴ3ƉαZbko3͒˺͛>EH+

G (Milligan& Porter, 2008)ERCOT ,4ϥΗ-ϥċˌϒ3κɂˏnhcE_}[HE3_}E
ELCC ͒˺H+G%(+3ǧʀ,4ĵɂĕH+

ˁ%%@0ŅϠ3Ũ
10 Ưû3nhˁ

EH+

ˋJ

Gį̪Ǖ

̍ɍ-/(+/

̶ͯ-ϥċˌϒúċ3Ȱ̃ýnhKËGXcel Colorado ,4ȝˏūɴ©ŞnEǊEH%ϥċˌϒ3

̍ɍ-/(+

G3ĵɂĕ4ʽ0/(%A3,G̶ͯ©ʔ0ˁ

EH%ȥʀ4̴ƭGΪ3˟˰,4zZɂν0Gϥċˌϒ3͖ßāˁʺ0Ŝ*Ğ̅ĕ%ȥʀˁ

EH+

G̀Œ

ĖɋΪŖś3̃̐Ξˁ̦ PJM ,4zZȰν4 6 Ƚ7 Ƚ8 Ƚ3ĚǇ 3 ȰE 7 Ȱ=,-͊/H+%(+3ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko43ɂν0ϥċˌϒΡǣǊG͖ßāˁʺ-ĵ,
H+GƯνťĒK͢ȬG%@PJM ,4˖Ύ 3 Ưν3zZɂν0Ŝ* 3 Ư-ˁH+G+͒˺

ĻɂˏƮŗɂνËGrZơ-V{TrNơ,ƄȦH%˟˰,4H-Á%ȥʀ0DFzZɂν3ŖśˏƂ̢0Ŝ* ELCC 3ΎÁÙųǀ0ǊEHG(MAPP) Aĵɟ3ȥʀKˁ
Ȱν-

G

+

̍ɍ-/(+G͖ßāˁʺ͒˺HG3,4/ϒċ̃̐3ɰȽ3zZKĸ? 4Ȱνƨ0Gϥċˌϒúċ3¡ŭÙˁ

EHį̪,

GSouthwest Area Power Pool (SPP) AH-ĵɟ3ȥʀKˁ/ϥċˌϒ3 85 wehPϖƪ0Óſˏ/A3,

GMid-Continent Area Power PoolÙKˁG-˲͙H+++

H5ȼκ 10 Ư3nhKˁGMAPP ,ˁG-,% 50ϬϮ¡ŭÙϯ,4GMilligan & Porter (2005)3˟˰0DF3 SPP ȥʀ

GV{TrNơ0ξ+4ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko4Ŝʙ-%WcʤċˌϒǦ3 23Ϻ25Ϭ76̍ɍ-/(+

G

PacifiCorp ,42005 Ư3 IRP ,ˠʺͦˏ/Ôϟƴ͚ÏȥʀKË-0DF̃̐0Gϥċϒʘ3ƉαZbkoɹƂH+GϥċˌϒǦ3ƉαZbko93Ɗʺ4Ʈŗ 21Ϭ,(%3˟˰,Óſˏ

0ȄƂH%Ǖ̪0Ŝ*PacifiCorp 4ϥ͹ʘ3©ßċbK͒˅ϥċˌϒ3ƊʺK 20Ϭ-+H0DF2003 Ư3ɭχ, IRP ǛƂ+Ŗśϴϒċ¾ˣ
CAϴCECCPUC
PJM
MN20Ϭ˟˰
ERCOT
MN/DOC/Xcel
CO PU/Xcel
PacifiCorp
MAPP
Idaho Power
Nebraska Public PowerDistrict
Northwes Resource
Adequacy Forum
Tri-State
SPP
PNM
ISO New England%Ɗʺ 0Ϭ-GȝÙťȹHG--/(%Ź 20 Ŝ½
ȥʀ
ELCC

ƻ¡ÔƤ>kDKO (Milligan & Porter, 2008)
ʃ͕
RPSϮ20 Ư¶ě5ϯ3Ƃɕíɇ͚ÏzZɂν3 3 Ưν0ξ CA
PUC - CA ISO Ëˁ%;<ðΖ3ƉαZbkozZɂν 5 ȽE 9 Ƚ=,3ɨĚϺĚǇ 6 Ȱ3ϥċˌϒ0DGȽƮŗˌϒϒċαzZɂν 6Ϻ8 Ƚ HE ʼŖȰνĚǇ 3Ϻ7 Ȱ3 Ưν3ƮŗKˁ %ƉαZbkoϮāˁį̪/şĴ4Ƅϊ3nh3 13Ϭ×ϯ
ELCC
ELCC4Ϭ15Ϭ25ϬƯťĒc,3Ⱦǜ/ťĒKˠ͞
ELCC
iϥċˌϒnh0Ŝ* ELCCϥċ-̶ͯ3˗ξǕ4Ȏ
/JH+ GϮ8.7Ϭϯ
ELCC
ΔɤˏmVȥϮ26Ϻ34Ϭϯ
ELCC
10 Ưν ELCC ˟˰0Ŝ*ƂɕƉα3 12.5Ϭ̶ͯ©ʔ˺ʀ,4ϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ3˗ξǕȎ/JH+ G
ELCCϛɤˏmVʀϮ26Ϻ34ϬϯzZɂν ɰȽ 4 Ȱν¡ŭÙzZɂν 7 Ƚ3ĚǇ 4Ϻ8 Ȱ3ƉαZbkoϮ5Ϭϯ17ϬϮȥʀ3͢Ȭ/ϯ
̌Ϩą
zZɂν
zZɂν
zZɂν
zZɂν

15Ϭ±Ǉ©ǛHGȖ͑0ĶE0ͤɒH+G

2Ϻ12Ϭ#Eϥċˌϒ3ɰȽ3ĵȰzZ93Ɗʺ0Ŝ*ɰȽ3̶ͯȼŪ 10Ϭ85 wehP
7 Ƚ3ĚǇ 4Ϻ5 Ȱ3ƉαZbko
ȧź3ϥċˌϒ0ξ+46Ϻ9 ȽĚǇ 2Ϻ6 Ȱ10Ϻ5 ȽĚǇ 6Ϻ7
Ȱ3ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbkoȤ͋3ϥċˌϒ0ξ+4Ŧɂ-öɂ3ϥΗnh0Ŝ*Ù3Ù4 ISO rP[p3ɚ͙D7Ξˁ̌Ϩ0Ŝ*ÕɨHG©Ƃ

CA/CEC: California/California Energy Commission
CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission
MN 20 % Study was sponsored by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission
RPS: õʿį̪SsYo{TUŜʙ
ELCC: Ⱦđ̶ͯƉαϳÔϟƴ͚ÏŜʙ0Ŝ*ƉαZbko
PJM: Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland, an RTO (regional transmission organization) in the US
HE: ̊¨ȰνERCOT: Electric Reliability Council of Texas
MN/DOC: Minnesota Department of Commerce, the sponsor of the Xcel Wind Integration Study
GE/NYSERDA: General Electric Energy Consulting, New York State Energy Research Development Authority
CO PUC: Colorado Public Utilities Commission
MAPP: Mid-Continent Area Power Pool
RMATS: Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study
PGE: Portland General Electric PSE: Puget Sound Energy
CF: ͖ßāˁʺ
SPP: Southwest Area Power PoolPNM: Public Service Company of New Mexico

5.8 ĪÜ
TradeWind

TradeWind Ŏŕ(Van Hulle et al., 2009) ,4ɥơ3ϥċˌϒ3Ȱ̃ýnhKˁ93Ͱʸƴ0ŖʽˏύĴĕ.3D0ǂϙG͒˺H++ϥċˌϒ3ϒċʿˀNnVa

G#3̍ɍɥơîÆKƮŗG-ϥċˌϒ4zZ̶ͯɂν3Ʈŗ3 1.2 ×0/G-ȬE-/(%77

Tradewind ͤɒ%ĳŒ,4 2020 Ư¡ÃaqU
αZbko4Ʈŗ 30Ϻ40Ϭ,αEɹƂH+

0Ɛ+zZ̶ͯȼAϩ

100 «Ì3ϥċˌϒ3Ɖ

G3ɥơ3ƉαZbko3Ʈŗ4pPl-{c3ϥċˌϒǦ3Ɖ

G

3ϒċϓ͉-ϥċˌϒúċ3˗ξD7#HƉαZbko0Ĩ<ɨ3đɍ-L,ƉαZbko3ˠʺ͒˺ϮpPl DENA ˟˰-ĵϯ,4Ʊś3ϥċˌϒ3ύĴĕƉαZbko0Ĩ<ǂϙͤɒ
H+

G2020 Ư¡ÃaqUϮ200 GWϯ0ƐG̍ɍE͆ȝ3Œ3ϥċˌϒ3ύĴĕ0DF )

3Œ3ƉαZbkoˠƄ0ȫŖʽˏϜśǴŪG;.ƉαZbkoAŪ/G-ȬE-/(+GɥơͧŒν,ϥċˌϒ3īƻ̽JH/şĴɥơ3ƉαZbko4Ʈŗ, 8ϬϮ16 GWϯ-/GɥơîÆK6-)3ϥċˌϒ̃̐-+͒˺ϥċˌϒKĳŒ3̶ͯ}{MP0ǉ

͆ȝ3Œ0û

άH5ƉαZbko4;< 2 ×3 14Ϭ-/GH43̃̐Ƕ)ˠƄ/Ɖᾱ 27 GW 0˗ǀG

¼ 54 ãÃƻ¡ŉƱ1Ư´¦Æ´

ÔƤ>kDKO78

sĎ (Van Hulle et al., 2009)Ř 6 ŗ ÌƤƻ¡ŉƱØ0Ʊ¡ŞŧƟŅ;<.3Œ,A.3ϒċ̃̐,Aϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ4Ʉ&0̸ςƂH+

ÓŮG-+AΪ3Ŗś,

4Ɣíʺϩ/(+Fϥċˌϒ3Ι̃ŅϠKþ@+Ƅϊ0̌ϨG-0/(++GɆ˳,4ϥċˌϒ3ˌϒϒċα̗ϓ͉3 20Ϭ¸KĠ@GŖś3Ƅ̜KŞĺGñÆˏ04nZ͈Ϊ (24Ϭ)pPlĖΪ (33Ϭ)cP3Ϊ3Ŗś (Navarra 44 %, Castilla-La Mancha 40 %, Aragón 37 %, Galicia 34 % and Castillay León 32 %)D7cQRn3 Gotland Ɲ (20Ϭ) ,ŖśŹ 21 ƻ¡ŉƱ ØłΙ̶̘̃ͯnZ͈
ΪpPlĖΪNPpcP
cQRn
3^opGϮŹ 21ϯ

zZ
̶ͯ
MW

ȼÄ̶ͯ
MW

TWh/Ư

3,700

1,400

21

2,000
5,000
38,200750
1,800
15,300

160

45

Ƽ

MW

ÀÃ
ϥċˌϒ
MW

TWh/Ư

ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ
ȼŪϥċ/
̗ϓ͉
ϮȼÄ̶ͯ
3Ϭ
ϱΙ̘̃ϯ

2,350

5

24 %

59 %

12.6
29
230

2,570/
3,070
5,200
500
1,800-2,800

2,275
745
11,615

4.2
1.6
23.4

33 %
6%
10%

38 %
32 %
68%

0.93

180

90

0.18

19%

40%

6.1 Nn`q>ŻƢ ϥċˌϒ3ťĒ3ŪΪû4ʵ0tQR-cQRn93ŪƉα3ϩŔ˖ʈ (HVDC) Ι̘̃
0DFϓ̏ͤȞG-,G©ǛHGϥċˌϒ4Nordpool ̃̐3ckoƦş,īƻHϮćȨ©ʔϯ©ʔ͡Ƥ3]co4Ėɥ3ͤȞƦş3ƦşÏɕ,ȕǨJHGϮͤȞϒʘ4 Nordel3ɨļPvc0Ǒ+ˁ

EHGϯćȨ©ʔ͡Ƥ0DGȄƂ]co4 1.2Ϻ2.6 /MW ,G ȼȤ3©ʔ,A©ʔ,/(%©ʔ͡Ƥʿ%şĴŎϐ/«ǞˌʿG#3Ì42005
Ư 1 Ƚ0ʿ% 6 Ȱνó, 1,600MW 3ϒʘŇŮ%«Ì,F#3ϊ04ϥċˌϒ3͖̠Ɖα

3 66ϬŇŮ%3D/«Ǟ4Ϟ̝0ˌʿGJ,4/ǐ͉,̃̐04#H0ƐGßG ϥċˌϒ3úċǭăǐ͉0/G;.3ϩ
H46-))04őƂξˬ0ǉ
0ȝŨûȜ+GE,

úċǭă4;-L.ʿ+/úċ42003 Ư¸ρ;-L.ʿ+/

GʯϒÊ̏0DGˌϒ3ɑ΅ǕȖņH+¸ρ4ϥċˌϒ3ƿϥȰɂ4pPl-3Ι̘̃ƉαKāˁG-4,/H4pPlĖΪ,AĵȰ0ϥċˌϒ3úċΟĈ0/GE, ©ßċƉα4šč+/ΞΆHG]bRsaϮʯϒÊ̏ϯˌϒǦŖśó

GΞΆ©ßċϮ10Ϻ15 ûν3ͤȞϒʘϯ3āˁ4ϩ=(+ċˌϒ4̮Ēˌϒăǋ (AGC) 3šč3Ō-/(+GH4ǉɊřˌϒǦ0DFΗ

Ui3hPc\ϯK˻ʽ,GD/ 140 MW û3ͤȞƉα3 140 , ̃̐șϋ0DGϥ΄3͏ý4ˌʿ+

/



Gϥ
ťĒϮ˦

G



6.2 P4L§Ƣ ϥċˌϒ3ťĒ0Ɛ+4̃̐Ξˁ̦ǐ͉/ͤȞϒʘKûǱĴ-,Ɛù+

79

G̃̐

Ξˁ̦4ϥċˌϒ3ćȨ©ʔ0Ŝ*Τü/ͤȞϒʘKíɇ0D(+ͻíGʵ0ȷϥϑ3ϊ0ʿGϥċˌϒ3̸
ϒE3úċŪ

ťĒ4̃̐Ξˁ̦0-(+ί͉/ͣϠ-/(+G·̶ͯȰ0ϥċˌşĴΎόͧŒϮUiD7pϯ93Ι̘̃Ū0āˁHG-0/G%@Ύό3ˌϒ̃̐̸ǂϙKĬG-0/G ϥċˌϒ3úċǭăK͉G;.ϒċΟĈ0ʿˀHG«ǞSchleswig-Holstein ơ, 2003 Ư
Niedersachsen ơ, 2005 ƯEˌʿ+GH4ƿϥȰ0̃̐oskZʶǞ0/G%@,GE.ON Netz ,4̃̐3ǴƾƁ¨G=,0õʿį̪SsYϒʘ3Ι̃KE0ÒΛG%@Ȱˏ/͏ɹ˹-+JCGˌϒ˻ʽKμˌ+

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 ;ϩŔ̃̐,șϋͽ%şĴ#3ǂϙKĬGŖś,4Ũȝ3ϥċˌϒǦ˛Ȱ0Í̏Ûɧ/Gį̪Ǖ

G3,000 MW ͋ɡ3Í̏Ûɧʿ%şĴ̃̐3ƀƂƴġɢ0ȱHGE.ON

Netz 4 2006 Ư 4 Ƚ 1 Ȩ0Ȥ%/̃̐Ι̃͋ąKˌ̀+3ŅϠ0ƐùG%@ FRT ̢ēµEH+

G (http://www.econ-netz.com)#3¡,G

6.3 24jhnP
EirGrid 4ʼŕ=,0 1 GW ¸3ϥċˌϒKǣČ̓0̃̐Ι̃++G6 GW ¸-ȘƳ3˕ɠΡǣHH5Ɣíʺ4nZ͈Ϊ0ėȟG;.0/F˖0ϥċˌϒƔíʺȼAϩ

ϒċ̃̐36-)-/G
1 GW 3ϥċˌϒKǣČ̓0̃̐Ι̃G%@04ɤ3D/Ɛ˹ǐ͉,G

 QOp{M3[kp]pϮΒϒ̃̐͋ąϯD7άϒ̃̐͋ą3Ȥ͋Éǣ Ũȝ3̃̐Ι̃Τˁùʽ3%@3[}}ecǧʀ3μˌD7ΤˁKĸ@%̃̐Ι̃3ùʽ Βϒ̕93Ȃ̓D7#H0ÀŪ͋ɡ/ƿĕ Ξˁǧϛ3Éǣ ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ QOp{M SCADA 3Ɣí ϥċˌϒ3̃̐̌ʐǕ93ǂϙ͚Ï Τü/úċǭăϥċˌϒ3úċǭă3͚Ï nμˌ93ħčKĸ@%̃̐ƀƂƴ3͚Ï(%Ƒλˏ/īF̋>4ưΪBchk{̽ί͉/cmZiKħč!GīF̋>-+Λ@EH+

̽

GHE3ΡǣǇAϥċˌϒ3ǔΗ/ˌƙK̥ǡG-E0͆ώ/ƑλˏńɛˏŅϠ

D7͋ă3ŅϠBcmZi3ŅϠʿGį̪Ǖ

G%@īF̋>3ƚ3ƿĕǐ͉&-͐

G

6.4 E\4n2008 ƯɅ=,0͖̠H%ϥċˌϒ4̄ 16 GWϮϒċ3̗ϓ͉3 17Ϭϯ,,F#3ˌϒϒċα4 31.5 TWh

GϮƯν̗ϓ͉ϒċα 264 TWh 3 11Ϭϯ2008 ƯɅ=,0cP0ȧ0͖̠H+%͖ßƉα4̄ 95 GW&(%Canary ͧƝ,4ȧ0ϥċˌϒ 142 MW ͖̠ʐ>,2015 Ư=,04HKȼ̊ˏ0 1,025 MW 0G-K˕Ƿ+

G3˕ɠΡǣHH5ϥċˌϒ0D(+ˌϒH%ϒċα4ϓ͉Ä

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Ū

Ȱɂ0©ʔ

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ΞΆG-0DGϋƇKΨ25/E/
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G

 2004 Ư0ϒċ̃̐3-ƀƂƴǢǒH%̍ɍϥċˌϒúċǭăHG-0/(%(Eriksen et al., 2005)2008 Ư 11 Ƚ 2 ȨȪɁϓ͉΀3%@0î+3ϥċˌϒKΙ̃G-,//F̃̐3ƀƂƴKÓ)%@ϥċˌϒK̄ 2,800 MW úċǭă!GKǊ//(% cP3QOp{MǦȾ̦D7̲3õʿį̪SsYˌϒǦ3ǦȾ̦42007 Ư
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F3 CORE Ƿ·eGˌϒH%õʿį̪SsYϒċ4

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G3 CECOEL 4cPϒċ̃̐3ˌϒΒϒȦ͖3ĜͤH%NhPΞˁ˓͌3ͳēKǱ(+GCECOEL 4ϒċÍ̏3eXmO-ϒċŀͺKÓ͙G%@ˌϒΒϒ̃̐3ΞˁǷ·Kú+G3ϥċˌϒǦ3˻ʽl0DFcP4ˆ0éϧ+Œó3î+3ϥċˌϒǦϮƉα 10 MW ¸ϯKϥċˌϒǦăǋeh0Ȃ̓+G3̃̐

04 2008 Ư 2 ȽɅ=,0ȧ0 21 3ăǋeh͖̠H#0Ȃ̓H%ϥċˌϒǦ3Ɖα4͒ 12,154 MW -/(+

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3cP͠3ˈ͠ϯ-G3˕ˏ3%@GEMASϮ ̃̐3ȼŪ͗l̃̐Ξˁ̦ REE 0D(+͒˅HμˌH+

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koKΒÔG3eD˻ʽH+Gϒċăǋeh4̃̐3ʶɿ-#3ϒċwhKΖÔskoZ0DF̒̓ˏ0˻ʽăǋťȝ0Ŝ*+Í̏eXmO-ϒċŀͺ3̔ǶD7«șˌʿȰ3Í̏ŋǌ0īF̋L,

3ϒċăǋeh4ȼȤƺ3ăǋacmKˁ
NhP,˻ʽ+G+ˌϒǦB̃̐Ȧ͖EĬÔ%ǚŞKG

6.5 E56qNnǄGotland
Gotland Ɲ3ϓ̏ͤȞ4î+Ɇœ93 HVDC \|Kˁ+̽(+G̗ĬƉ0ƐGϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ 10ϬKͿ%şĴϥċˌϒ3ˌϒϒċαŖś3̶ͯ-;<ĵ,\|3Βϒϒċ;< 0 MW ,ΞΆHG\c04ϥċˌϒúċǭăHG\c55ʿ+%3ŅϠKëȿG%@\|3ăǋǕ̪KȖņϒċʢʈ3üFȻK;< 0 MW 0GīF̋>/H%#3ǇϥċˌϒKúċǭăGǐ͉Ǖ4ʿ+/Gotland 3ϥċˌϒ4cQRnɆœ-ɱΈG-ƕ͋ɡ,2007)

81

G (Söder et al.,Ř 7 ŗ ')ųÖϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃0ξG˟˰3Ũ4Ι̃3ǂϙKǐ͉/©ßċ3šč (MW)ĳϒŔχ̆Βϒ̘ (kV)3̃̐̈́ƿ3ǐ͉Ǖ (km)Ι̃]coϮ%Fp/MWhG

4/MWh -+̀ˢ+GŨ3˟

˰´3ϒʘBΊú3͒˅˹Ƃ93ǂϙΒϒ̃̐3ƀƂƴ93ǂϙϒċNnVa93ǂϙΈ¸ŧ3ȥʀ,̍ɍK͢Ȭ+

GHE3˟˰̍ɍ,4ϥċˌϒ MWh ǀ%F G

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4̗ʋͶϒċα MWh
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G

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]coK͊˯AGşĴϥċˌϒ93̃̐

G

4©ßċƉα3ĉFǀ+ȥʀˉ/(+

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82

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7.1 ƲŦƊćżťě

G

')

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G=%˛Ȱ3Í̏Ûɧ«Ì-ǐ͉/©ßċϮȔ¦3%@3©ßċ
!+

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 {OpD7Ėɥ (Holttinen, 2004)
 cQRn (Axelsson et al., 2005)
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 pPl (Dena, 2005)


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sghơ (EnerNex/WindLogics, 2006)

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83

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̍ɍ0Ŝ*+

G (Strbac et al., 2007)

ϥċ©ʔ3ȼȤ3ǣɍ0DG-˝Ȱν3hPc\,3©ʔ̸ȖņH+

G-JGϮ2.1.2ƴħʮϯćȨ©ʔ͡ƤK˝Ȱν©ßċ,ͤȞH5Αčǐ͉-/G˝Ȱν©ßċ4 10ϬΎ0/G3p
Pl3˟˰,4ǐ͉/©ßċKϥċˌϒ3ćȨ©ʔ͡Ƥ3Ʈŗˏ/ǂϙ-ǻ+FȼŪÙϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα3 15Ϻ20Ϭ=,ščG (Dena, 2005)0ˢ%̍ɍDFAǐ͉/©ßċ̸ščG-Kˢ
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GcQRn3̃̐Ξˁ̦ˌ̀%#3ȄƂÙ4ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα3 35Ϻ48Ϭ,G3.6.2 ƴ,͝ͦ%D03Ĵ͒Ù4©ßċ3Ȱν-)3͉ŌK̗Ĵ%̍ɍ0Ŝ*DFŪ/hPc\,3ϒċ̃̐3ɑ΅ǕK̀+̐Ξˁ̦3ȄƂ0DH5ͤȞ©ßċϮ1 ɤ©ßċϯ4 100Ϻ500 MW
G3ǐ͉/ͤȞċ4GE ̽(% CEC ˟˰3Ù3 10 ×,
/

GşĴA
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4ϥċˌϒ3͖ßƉα3 1Ϻ5Ϭ,

G3¢ƾ0)+3̉͝/ûɌ4̽JH+ ¼ 57 0ˢ%ϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGͤȞ]co3šč0ξG̍ɍ4¸3˟˰0Ŝ*
 {OpD7Ėɥ (Holttinen, 2004) ̵Œ (Ilex/Strbac, 2002; Strbac et al., 2007)ϯ
 NPp (Ilex et al., 2004)
 ]pơ (Zavadil et al., 2006)sghơ (EnerNex/WindLogics, 2004 and 2006)

 V{TrNơ (Shiu et al., 2006)
 PacifiCorp(PacifiCorp, 2005) ĖɥͧŒD7pPlGreennet (Meibom et al., 2009)

84

+

G

¼ 57 ƻ¡ŉƱ,/ƲŦƊćAEOƟŅAEO

Ç¢Ʃ/āÒťě,Ëˁ%Ζͱȉ˺4 1 ϶0.7 p1 ϶1.3 ̀p, G̵Œ3 2007 Ư˟˰4Ʈŗ]coKˢ+FƔíʺ 20Ϭ,3ȼǇ3ʧ0G]co3˽ŏ42.6Ϻ4.7 /MWh , GȄƂÙ¸ŧ0Aȧź3ϥċˌϒ0ξGƄϊ3ͤȞ]co0ξnZ,3̍ɍǊEH+

GnZ͈Ϊ,4Nordic Ʀş3ćȨƦş3ͤȞ]co4ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ 24Ϭ0Ɛ 1.4Ϻ2.6 /MWh ,GHE3ȝÙ4¼ 57 ,4;<¡νÙ,G

pPl-̵Œ,ǐ͉-HG©ßċ3ȼŪȄƂÙ4ϓ̏ͤȞ]co0ĩȮH+
Eʼŕ3ǉɊřˌϒǦ,3ǐ͉αKʗ%-,G-̍ͦ,GE,
ȧź3©ßċ3]coš3>ȄƂH+/

H4Œ3˟˰

G̵Œ3˟˰̍ɍ,4Gϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ̗ϓ͉ϒċα3 20Ϭ¸ó,GşĴϥċ

ˌϒ3ťĒ-ˠƄǕ0ͽŌG̃̐Ξˁ]co3šč4̄ 1Ϻ4 /MWh -/FH4ϥċˌϒ3ģÏ
ɕ3 10Ϭ¸,GŒD7Ŗś0D(+̍ɍ04Ū/5E)

0Ϣ̸/34¸3ΖF,

 ȄƂ0==/hPc\ˁĒšč̥ǡH+
̋>Ό=H++G-ˠ͞H+F¡,Aʵ

G
EH+F̵Œ3 2002 Ư3˟˰,44 Ȱνć=,3ť

G̀Œ3˟˰,AćȨ3͒˅Éǣ0ξGrko]GĖɥͧŒ-NPp0ξ+4ΞˁȰν¡3ťĒšč3>͚ÏH

GGreennet ˟˰,4ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ0Ŝ*rko]H+koo3ǂϙkoo-©ßċ3ĉǀ+G3̃̐,4úċ3ͤȞ0˖ć 3 Ȱν3ȼȤ©ʔKˁ Ȥ%/©ßċƉα93Ǯ͹]co0)co3ʞɤˏšč3>͚ÏH++

G

+4Greennet̵ŒSEI NPp3˟˰,4Ξˁ]GȤ%/©ßċ93Ǯ͹Kĸ@+G˟˰̍ɍAGϮĖɥϮ2004 Ưϯ{OpϮ2004 Ưϯϯ ϓ̏ăǋSN3͋ɡ0ξ+4GreennetόȂŒGsghơϮ2006 ƯϯĖɥϮ2004 Ưϯ3˟˰,4

4όȂƦş-3ϒċīƻ0DFΞˁ]coKʑEį̪Ǖ͊Ό=H+G]

pơV{TrNơPacifiCorppPl3 DENA 3˟˰cQRn̵ŒNPp{Op3˟˰,4Βϒ̘3į̪ǕϮΎόͧŒE3ϒċΊí0DGϓ̏ͤȞ3į̪Ǖϯ
4̥ǡHǀ͜ŒƦş3ûɌ/H+şϓ̏ͤȞ0Ĩ<ÐːKˢ+G

sghơ0G 2 )3˟˰4Ū͋ɡƦGGreennet 3˟˰̍ɍD7{OpĞʷ3͒˺̍ɍ-ɱΈ%ĖɥϮ2004 Ưϯ3˟˰3̍ɍ0AH-ĵɟ3áĶˠ͞HGŪ͋ɡ/ϒċ̃̐
0D(+ϥċˌϒ3ťĒǕ3Ʈʚĕį̪-/G nZ-pPl0ξG Greennet 3̍ɍEΎόͧŒ.3˫ƴ3ϥċˌϒKȾ+
0D(+˺úHG]coˉ/G-ûG]coϩ/(+cQRntQR3Ɣíʺ 20Ϭ3şĴ,
ϖƪ0ϩ

G

G34{Op

G3tQR3̍ɍEĳ3ɑ΅Ǖ%@ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϩ/G-Ξˁ]co4šč!

[{3ȸ̘{ko0/G-JG
Ź 4 0ˢD0Ύό3̃̐93Ι̘̃Ɖαϖƪ0ϩ
85

şĴAŨ

%(+ϓ̏ͤȞ]co0ξ+4HE3˟˰3¡,Ι̘̃ƉαKϓ̏ͤȞ3˕ˏ0ˁ̍ͦµEHG-4Ι̘̃ƉαKϓ̏ͤȞ0Aˁ
ͤȞ]coÄʑG-

-,

+D

.Kǐ

G-,G3,

ɚ͓Gǐ͉

H5#,/

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şĴ0ɱ:ϓ̏GΙ̃]coKÄʑG-ȬE0/(%´3ί͉/͉Ō4ϖƪ

0Ʊś3ϥċˌϒǦ3úċKύĴĕG-D7ϒċ̃̐3ΞˁKΖĺGȰνKƄϊ3̏ϒȰν0Ύ*
G-,

G

Αčǐ͉/©ßċ (MW) Bϓ̏ͤȞ]co3ščKˢͱƬÏÙ4:+3«Ì˟˰,ƂαĕH+
J,4/

G



 cQRn-{Op,4ϥċˌϒ«ɛ̦93ȕǨ

β-+3ϓ̏ͤȞ]coKͤȞƦşϮNordic ͤȞƦşϯÏɕ-+ȄƂϥċˌϒ3ûȜ3ƴĴÏɕɵʙ0ǉ

0.3Ϻ1.4 /MWh -+HE3ͤȞ]co0ĸ=H+D7ϓ̏ͤȞ3%@3ƦşG (Holttinen et al., 2006; Neimane & Carlsson, 2008)

G34ˠƄǕ0ξG]co3>,Ʀş,ϥċˌϒ3ťĒ0ƐǑ+

G-

-,

G)=F Nordic ćȨGcQRn,44,000 MW 3ϥċˌϒϮ̗ϓ͉ϒċα3 8Ϭϯ0ξ1 ȰνéGΆ©ßċ 18Ϻ56ϬščG-ȄƂ+GϮ̗ϓ͉ϒċα3 8Ϭϯ (Brandberg & Broman, 2007)

4 4 Ȱνé3ϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ3%@015 ûΞ

{Op,4oskZ/, Nordic ϓ̏ͤȞƦşKāˁ,G-¹ƂH5±Ǉϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥ0D(+ʿG̃̐Pvc3]co3šč4̗ϓ͉ϒċα3 1Ϻ10Ϭ3Ɣí
ʺ, MWh%F 0.2Ϻ1 -ȄƂ+

G (Helander et al., 2009)

 pPl,4ϥċˌϒ3Pvc]coKʑE%@0Ⱦđ/ǀȨƦşKāˁG-ͤɒH+

G (FGE/FGH/ISET, 2007)=%{Op (Holttinen & Koreneff, 2007)D7cQRn(Neimane & Carlsson, 2008),4Nordic Ʀş0ξ+ͤɒ+G̍ͦE͐5Ɩ/-Aʼŕ3ǛƂÏɕ0ξ+4ǀȨƦşKāˁGȬˠ/Ðː4/

/"/E5ǀȨƦş,3īƻ-4î+3PvcKÕɨG-KǜļGPvc93ȕǨ

4ϒċ̃̐3ɨļ

3Pvc0ǂϙGPvc3>0ΤˁHG%@100%3Ȱν,ȕǨJHG,4/%@,GϮƔíʺÄ cQRn,4ƔíʺÄ

şĴ4 50%3Ȱν0/

J

ϯ

şĴϮ̗ϓ͉ϒċα3 3ϬɄʗϯ0Ɛϥċˌϒ3©ʔ͡Ƥɵ
GϥċˌϒƯν̄ 4Ϻ5 TWh ,GşĴɵċˌϒ

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ċˌϒ3đʺǕ0Ĩ<ǂϙȄƂH+ ĖɥͧŒ0ξ+4ϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺ 12Ϭ0/(%şĴɵċˌϒ3āˁKǭă%̍ɍʿGȎŮϒċαϥċˌϒ3ϒċα3 1Ϭ0˷/G-ȄƂH+

G (Holttinen, 2004)

 nZ3̃̐Ξˁ̦4ϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺϮ̗ϓ͉ϒċα3ϯ20ϬE 50Ϭ0šč%şĴ
3ǂϙK͚Ïϥċˌϒ3ƔíʺKE0ϩ@G-,ƦşˌϒΒϒϓ͉3ĳÝϗ,3Ɛ˹KƔí))Œó3ɑ΅Ǖ-Œϊˏ/ϒċƦş3̦3āˁǐ͉0/G-̍ͦ*+G(Energinet.dk, 2007)
 Ui3͏Ɍ̍ɍ0DH5ʊŧ-3ϒċīƻʵ0Ʀş3ΖĺKƸκG-4đʺˏ0ϥċK̃̐Ι̃G%@3ί͉/͏ɹ˹,Gί͉/-4ʵ0ϓ͉zZ3Ȱ3 CCGT

D7ϓ͉Ä

Ȱ3Ŝʙ̶ͯ0ξ+͐5ϥċˌϒ0D(+ʤċˌϒ3Ǯ͹ƐđɍǙĕG-

G (Ummels, 2009)

-, NPp3îƝ̃̐˟˰0DH5ϥċˌϒK 2 GW E 6 GW 0G-,ϒċ̃̐3Ξˁ]coc\c-ɱΈ+ 13 /MWh ÄGɆ˟˰4]coÐːKȁGA3&(%%@3]co4Ξˁ]co-+4ï̀H+(All Island Grid Study, 2008)

/ rZơ,4ƔíʺƉα3 10Ϭ3şĴϥċˌϒ0ͽŌGͤȞċ3šû4 36 MW -/F#H¸3˛Ȱ©ßċ4͉-+
4 5 ûν, 1Ϻ2 MW ,F1 Ȱν

Gϥċˌϒ3̃̐Ι̃0À 1 Ȱν%F3̶ͯšû

%Fúċťĕ4 858 MW E 910 MW 0ščGϓ͉3šč0Ɛ+4rZơ3ȧźϒʘ-Ʀş}ec0DFî+ƐǑG-,G2008
Ư3ūʫWc3ǛƂÏɕ 6.50Ϻ6.80 p/MMBTU ,4ϒċ̃̐3]coK 3.35 äĆʑ,G-ȬE-/(+GćȨrko]

E 859Ϻ950 MW 0ščGrko]koo3ȼȤ©ʔϮϥċˌϒ MWhpϯK̥ǡ%şĴ̃̐ťĒ3]coKĴ͒, 3.35 ä

86

4.55 äp0koo3©ʔ͡Ƥ σ 4700Ϻ800 MW%F 10.70

4.30 äp0Ćʑ,GƁî/©ʔ

0DFE0 2,500 p3Ćʑį̪,G (GE Energy, 2005)

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ȥͤȞċ#H$H 54MW D7 48MW ščG-ȬE-/(+G-ϥċˌϒ MWhGȼȤ3ϥċ©ʔKˁ

%F3ͤȞ]co4ϥċˌϒ 10,000 MW 0ΡG=,4 0.27 p/MWh=,ščG15,000 MW 0/G-Ƅϊ3ͤȞ]co3Ćʑ=,ÄGϮ0.18 p/MWhϯ3ʽ˃4ǐ͉/ͤȞŨ/(+AϥċˌϒƉα3Αč0DFƀÏ/rko]oį̪0/G-,rko]koo3ŅϠK͏ɹG-,G%@Na_ycƦş3ͤȞʎ˺]coʑƖGE,ϥċˌϒ MWhko%F̄ 55 p-ȄƂH+GŋΨG-3,%ϥċˌϒ3]co4

G(GE Energy, 2007)

 ϒċʹ̻0ξ+4̵Œ3ϒċ̃̐Ξˁ0Gϒċʹ̻Ïɕ 252Ϻ970 p/kW -͊˯AE
H+

G (Strbac et al., 2007)pPl,4400 MW 3 CAES 0ξƯν 2,700 -©ʔH+

GϮ2.5 ä3Ǯ͹ϯ(FGE/FGH/ISET, 2007)Ui,4̃̐,3ϒċʹ̻3¶Ȼǧɭ-+Ⱦɀ/34Œϊīƻ-H+(Ummels, 2009)NPp,4ϒċʹ̻ƉαKšB

G(All Island Grid Study, 2008)

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==,

GϮŪ

͋ɡʹɵɸKß%ɵċˌϒBȈɵˌϒKσϯϥċˌϒ3Ɣíʺϩ/G;.ϒċʹ̻0DFɑ΅ǕKϩ@G-4ϒċ̃̐3Ξˁ0Ⱦː,G-©ǛHGÂ̏ͤȞ3ǐ͉Ǖ0ǉ(+Ξˁ:&-D(+đɍˏ0Äʑ,GD/Ū͋ɡ/ϒċ̃̐0cođʺɀ=//GşĴAϒċʹ̻4ύĴĕH%̃̐3ϓ

-Kͪ͞:,Gî+3̶ͯ-ϒʘ3ťĒǕύĴĕ0+ϥċˌϒ3%@&0©ßċKȇÍG-4]

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¼ 59 3ϥċˌϒ3ƉαZbko3̍ɍ04Ū/ƫGϥ΄hP}D7ϥ΄_Pd==,αZbko3̍ɍÄ/(+G-,G#3ʽ˃36-)4ϥċˌϒǦ3_Po0

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93

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94̃̐Ξˁ3ÔϟƴKϩ@G-,G ŞŧþèϵȤ%0Αč%ϒʘ3ɑ΅ǕD7ϓ̏ͤȞKęû/A30G-,©ǛHG

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GJ,4/

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95

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106Ź A.2 E56qNnį¡ŉƱĖ¤óŎŕ ÓċŴǀÓċâϵLennart Söder, 1994Ŏŕ ÀńŊƶÃǀÓċĐėϵcQRnϮ6-)3ɻỠ̐3̍ɍKcQRnîœ0ǴŪϯƱ¡Şŧ Ŀï
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107Ź A.3 §Ī

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4. ɵ3āˁį̪Ǖ͖ßāˁʺ§ʱʖʡƯ
5. ɵċˌϒ3ȼΤĕ3̥ǡ
T Ļ¡ŉƱ dNin?
ˮãʺ3>̥ǡñÆˏ/nĕ4! ϮΚɰϯW ƻ¡ŉƱ dNin?
1. Ȱ̃ýnhϮΚɰϯ4;-L./ϥΗʔƂ0Ŝ*Κɰ3ϥɿnhϮ30 ƯûϯŒĀ3ϥċˌϒ«Ì 1~2 \c108Ź A.4 §Ī 4 o½ǂP4L
Ŏŕ ÓċŴǀÓċâϵRisø Œ˲˟˰Ǧ2006
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%ϒċ̃̐2010 Ưϒċ̃̐aqU3 )3ϥċˌϒ«ÌƱ¡Şŧ Ŀï
ƝŞƱĸ
Ǝŷ
ƝŞ
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Wq>(MW)
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TWh/a
MW
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«Ì
155,500
65,600977
196,000
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ˉ/GƱ¡Şŧ ƆšϵʍĴɵċ 57,500 MWϮȈɵˌϒǦKĸ?ϯʤċ 138,500MWϮWcʤċ 31,000 MW˞ʦʤċ 36,000 MWϯĤŸċ 32,000 MWƝŞŭ ƆšϵnŖśν3ΒϒƉαϵ˖ʈ 3,120MW¯ʈ 28,000MW 0DGΙ̃ΒϒƉα3āˁ-Ɇ˟˰3ˌϒƉα3āˁ4˗­0ȼΤĕH+ G/J'©ßċ0āˁH%ΒϒƉα3ûȜ0Ŝ*nKɹƂćȨƦş0āˁGƄϊ3ϒċ̃̐DFAɑ΅0ΒϒKāˁGƻ¡ŉƱ ƆšϵŖʽˏƮʚĕKĩȮ%ϥċˌϒȰ̃ýnhKˁ 12 nŖś0ûȜϥċˌϒ3Ŝʙ\cϵ5,500 MW ʄ30,000MW τ10%ϥċˌϒ\cϵ11,500 MW ʄ46,000 MW τ20%ϥċˌϒ\cϵ11,500 MW ʄ64,000 MW τ3n,4άϒ̕4ĘĀH+ / /J'Βϒ̕-άϒ̕93Ι̃KĘĀ+ / Şŧƀņ Ŀïϵ̃̐Ξˁ̦ΒϒƉαK͒˅ˌϒ«ɛ̦ϥċˌϒǦ93Ǯ͹KɹƂˌϒǦ3Ȩ3Ξˁ4ϒċ}3īƻ0DFŖśȳǥ̕0ʯK̃̐Ξˁ̦0̃̐_ycKͲŤÞÆ ƉďϵćȨ3ckoƦşϮĖɥͧŒ3 Nord PoolpPl3 EEXϯE0ȝŨ3 2 Œνīƻ©ßċ
Ʀş4̃̐Ξˁ̦0DFΞňŞŧƝŞsƣżH4bE@qjϵͤȞċ3ͽĒϮ10Ϻ15 ûϯrko] kooϮȝȰνϯƂƀA Ŏŕ ŋŊ
1. ϥċˌϒ xϮ G 4 yϯGWh 3şĴ./GM Ŏŕ ÓċĊı
1. ϥċˌϒ3Αčϳˠʺͦˏ/ťĒϥċˌϒúċ-ĵ˷3©ʔį̪/Ƃϥċˌϒúċ3ɱΈS ƟŅ ſĚdNj
4. ˠʺͦˏ͏Ɍȝ\cſĚ ƆšR Đƨſŵ
2. Ȱν͏Ɍɂνϵ1 ƯP ĞİÒı
1. ʰȢ]co˷ͽĒ]coKĸ?
3. Ɓî/Ʀş͏ɌϮĳÉˁ̦ʴʽˏă̄-ʀˏă̄K̥ǡ%ʵƂ3Ƃ̢
0ǉ ÐːKȼΤĕϯD }Şŧ Ƃƀ1. ´̃̐KƂÙ->/
4. ϥċˌϒ0DGΞˁ3ťȹ
5. Ɓî/īƻ0DGuŐÓóƲŦƊć
I
4nUhnEƀŚ
1. ϥċˌϒ3>0DGPvcϳ©ßċ0ξ+4ϥċˌϒ©ʔ-Í̏Ûɧ3̋>ĴJ!
B ƊćƱĸ Æø
3. ´̃̐3ŖśE̥ǡ
U uŐÓó û
2. ɵċˌϒ3ʈíα3ˠƄǕ
3. ϥɿ©ʔϵd. āˁį̪/ȼΤ©ʔϥɿ©ʔ͡Ƥ3ɠʙÚƤ4©ʔɂν
8Ϻ36 Ȱνć0Ɛϥċˌϒ͖ßƉα3 15Ϻ18%DF˝ ©ʔɂν3ş
Ĵ4HDFÄ
©ʔɂνϵ˖ć 3Ϻ36 Ȱν3©ʔƱ¡Şŧ Ɔš
G ƚƱƩ/ŞŧƪŇ
2. Ƃ MW 3bŖśîÆ3ςˆϵ31,000 MW͏ɌŖśŧ3ςˆϵ6,600 MWH į¡ŉƱ dNj¦
3. ɵȡŽˏăςKĸ?Ϯʹɵɸ3ɵÃɻƠ3ʈαϯ
4. ɵ3āˁį̪Ǖāˁʺ§ʱʖʡƯ
5. ɵċˌϒ3ȼΤĕK̥ǡT Ļ¡ŉƱ dNj¦
2. ͽĒÛɧ]coK̥ǡϮ̘ǁΎÁϯ
3. đʺťĒK̥ǡϮ̘ǁΎÁϯ
4. ʯʿˀK̥ǡ

109

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3ɰȰϥɿȰ̃ýnhcQRnϵ6 _Po3ΟĦ3ɰȰϥɿȰ̃ýnhd) Ȱ̃ýnh3ƮʚĕK̥ǡϮĳŖ3Ȱ̃ýnhK#H$H3nŖś36-)3Ȱ̃ýnh0ύĴĕϯ
3. ϥɿnh-̶ͯnhĵɂ
4. ƓɊϥċˌϒKûȜ!G%@3ά̠aqUϮȘƳ͒˅-Ƒλƈ3ÿƂD7ϥċˌϒ}bRZo͒˅͗į˄ͥK̋>ĴJ!%A3ϯ

110Ź A.5 Ŝ½aSGH 2004Ŏŕ ÓċŴǀÓċâϵEnerNex/WindLogics2004Ŏŕ ÀńŊƶÃǀÓċĐėϵ sghơ2010 ƯƱ¡Şŧ Ŀï
ƝŞƱĸ
Ǝŷ
ƝŞ
ƻ¡ŉƱ
ƾƻ¡Êƿ
Wq>(MW)
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TWh/a
MW
TWh/a
9,933
300
48.1
11,426
1,500
1,500
5.8
Ʊ¡Şŧ Ɔšϵʤċ—ɵċʍĴɵċ̄ 2%Wcʤċ 28%˞ʦʤċ 25%ĤŸċ 12%˞ɼʤċ 4%˝ɂˏκɂˏͻí 21%#3´ϮɃɈvPUc͖ßāˁʺ 13.5%3ϥċˌϒKĸ?ϯ8%ƝŞŭ ƆšϵΒϒ4Ȭˠ0n[+ / ˖ʈΙ̘̃ϵ/Ι̘̃0DGϒċͻíͤȞċD
7©ßċ4ŖśóÍ̏ƻ¡ŉƱ ƆšϵϥċˌϒǦK 1,000 km2 Ŗś0ûȜϮî+τ
HAΒϒ̘0Ι̃-¹ƂϯŞŧƀņ ĿïϵϥċˌϒǦK RPS 0Ŝ*ƹ͖ʤċˌϒ̃̐KǶ)Ř˖̐Ĵ%ϒċ¾ˣKǛƂÞÆ Ɖďϵ2 ŖśνīƻŞŧƝŞsƣżH4bE@qjϵĻʁȝͤȞ̶ͯΑǉrko] kooƂƀA Ŏŕ ŋŊ
1. ϥċˌϒ xϮ G 4 yϯGWh 3şĴ./GM Ŏŕ ÓċĊı
1. ϥċˌϒKšč
ƉαZbkoϵa) Δɤˏϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ}{MPKˁ G
S ƟŅ ſĚdNj
2. ɹƂͦˏ͏Ɍȝ\cſĚ ƆšR Đƨſŵ
2. Ȱν͏Ɍɂνϵ1 ƯP ĞİÒı
1. ȨϴΚ
2. Ȱν͏Ɍɂνϵ3. 1 ƯD }Şŧ Ƃƀ1. ´̃̐KƂÙ->/uŐÓóƲŦƊć
I
4nUhnEƀŚ
3. ϥċϱ̶ͯϱÍ̏Ûɧ0DGPvc
B ƊćƱĸ Æø
2. ĵŖśE
U uŐÓó û
1. Βϒbϵ̥ǡ!
2. ɵċʈí3ˠƄǕϵɹƂͦˏ
3. ϥɿ©ʔϵd) āˁį̪/ȼΤ©ʔMAE ̄ 20%
5. ̶ͯ©ʔK̥ǡϵ̥ǡ%
6. ʤċˌϒ3Í̏ÛɧK̥ǡϵ̥ǡ%
7. #3´͏Ɍ,¹Ƃ%©ʔ͒˅ƐͮɂνϮćȨϯƱ¡Şŧ Ɔš
G ƚƱƩ/ŞŧƪŇ
1. b/
H į¡ŉƱ dNin?
6. ςƂˏ0ɹƂͦˏ/ʈHΌ>ƺ
7. ɵˀ͹ʘ-3˗ξ4 =Fƿ/T Ļ¡ŉƱ dNin?
1. úċťĕΗƴK̥ǡ
2. ͽĒÛɧ]coK̥ǡ
3. đʺťĒK̥ǡW ƻ¡ŉƱ dNin?
1. Ȱ̃ýnhϵc) ɡȓϥΗϱúċȸ̘Ϯ50 _Poϯ
2. ϥċˌϒ}{MPϵb) 1 Ȩ3Ȱνɰ
3. ϥɿnh-̶ͯnhĵɂ
4. 1,000 km2 Ŗś3ϥɿξΙǕKç0Ŗśμˌ3˜͊0Ŝ*ƓɊ3ϥċˌϒûȜ3͖̠aqU111

Ź A.5 Ŝ½aSGH 2004Ŏŕ ÓċŴǀÓċâϵEnerNex/WindLogics2006
Ŏŕ ÀńŊƶÃǀÓċĐėϵ sghơ2020 ƯƱ¡Şŧ Ŀï
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TWh/a
MW
TWh/a
21,0008,800
8523,500
5,000
5,700
21
Ʊ¡Şŧ Ɔšϵʤċ—ɵċʍĴɵċ̄ 3.5%õʿį̪SsY6%ʤċ 90.5%ϮWcʤċ 23.5%˞ɼ
ʤċ 5%˞ʦʤċ 55%ϯĤŸċ 8%ƝŞŭ Ɔšϵ sgh̃̐4 MISO Ʀş-ɋΪΙ̃3 1 Ϊ, G NERC Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO)3Ϊ sghơ4 2020 Ư=,0Ι̃ƉαK̄ 5,000 MW ßG-ȄƂH+ G sghơ3̶ͯ3
Ϊ4Ζƪ´3ơE3ϒċÍ̏0DF͸(+ Gƻ¡ŉƱ Ɔšϵ2020 Ư3ϥċˌϒƉα 5,700 MW 4τˌϒǦ,ŖśˏŨɟǕ0ƌ? 3 ơ 4 ŖśϮ#H z
H̄ 750 km2ϯ0ûȜ!Ι̃4î+Ɓ¨Βϒ3ʍώ4ȼƕς0/(+ GŞŧƀņ Ŀïϵʤċˌϒ3̃̐ƉαK͒˅G%@Ř˖ˏ̐Ĵ%ϒċ¾ˣKǛƂϥċˌϒǦK RPS 0Ŝ*ƹ͖nOcwkj4ƦşʾŠ,ΞˁÞÆ Ɖďϵ sghơ3̶ͯ4̀Œ3 kpQRcoĖΪ3 14 ơ,ɞǣHG MISO Ʀş0DF͸(+ GMISO Ʀş4ćȨƦşD7ćȰνƦş,ɢ̪+ GNa_ycƄȦ¡3Ʀş4ʼŕ̶ͯ 116
GWˌϒ 133 GW ,ɞǣHH4 2020 Ư=,0̄ 170 GW Ʀş0ǣκG͊Ό>, GŞŧƝŞsƣżH4bE@qjϵĻʁȝͤȞ̶ͯΑǉrko] kooƂƀA Ŏŕ ŋŊ
1. ϥċˌϒ xϮ G 4 yϯGWh 3şĴ./GM Ŏŕ ÓċĊı
1. ϥċˌϒKΑčƉαZbkoϵa) Δɤˏϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ}{MPKˁ G
S ƟŅ ſĚdNj
2. ɹƂͦˏ͏Ɍȝ\cſĚ ƆšR Đƨſŵ
2. Ȱν͏Ɍɂνϵ1 ƯP ĞİÒı
1. ʰȢ]co˷D }Şŧ Ƃƀ4. ϥċˌϒ0DGΞˁ3ťȹ
5. Ɓî/īƻ0DG
6. #3´ϵCapX2020 ,ȼAȬˠ0͢ȬH%D0ʼŕ3͒˅0Ŝ*Ɣí
ʺ-ΒϒƉαKšƿuŐÓóƲŦƊć
I
4nUhnEƀŚ
3. ϥċˌϒϱ̶ͯϱʿˀÛɧ0DGPvc
B ƊćƱĸ Æø
2. ĵŖśE
3. ´̃̐3ŖśEḀǡU uŐÓó û
1. ΒϒbϵÔˁˏă̄
2. ɵċˌϒ3ʈíα3ˠƄǕϵɹƂͦˏ
3. ϥɿ©ʔϵd) āˁ,GȼΤ/©ʔćȨ3ƂɕƉα MAE 3̄ 20%
5. ̶ͯ©ʔK̥ǡϵ̥ǡ%
6. ʤċˌϒ3Í̏ÛɧK̥ǡϵ̥ǡ%͏Ɍ,¹Ƃ%©ʔɂνϮćȰνD7ćȨϯƱ¡Şŧ Ɔš
G ƚƱƩ/ŞŧƪŇ
2. Ƃ MW 3bH į¡ŉƱ dNin?
6. ςƂˏ0ɹƂͦˏ/ʈHΌ>ƺ
7. ɵˀ͹ʘ-3˗ν4 =Fƿ/T Ļ¡ŉƱ dNin?
1. úċťĕΗƴK̥ǡ
2. ͽĒÛɧ]coK̥ǡ
3. đʺťĒK̥ǡW ƻ¡ŉƱ dNin?
1. Ȱ̃ýnhϵc) ɡȓϥΗϱúċȸ̘
2. ϥċˌϒ}{MPϵb) 1 Ȩ3Ȱνɰ
3. ϥɿnh-̶ͯnhĵɂ
4. ƓɊϥċˌϒKûȜ!G%@3ά̠aqUϵϮ̉͝/ϥ͹ʘŖŐ-cm
Zi3ȕȌKǊ%Ŗśμˌ3˜ͪ0Ŝ*ϯϥċˌϒǦ3 750 km2 3ŖʽˏûȜ0) +3ñÆˏ/͕ΐ112

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TWh/a
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0/500/1,000/
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̥ǡ!
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Ʊ¡Şŧ Ɔšϵʤċ—ɵċʍĴzZ̶ͯ 5,000 MW ̃̐ϵɵċ 544 MWʤċ 4,935 MWϮWcʤċ 3,769
MW˞ʦʤċ 855 MWʂʦʤċ 344 MWϯzZ̶ͯ 6,500 MW ̃̐ϵɵċ 544MWʤċ 6,650MWϮ'Wcʤċ 5,153MW˞ʦʤċ 855 MWʂʦʤċ 344 MWϯƝŞŭ ƆšϵɆ˟˰,4Ι̘̃4̥ǡ!
ƻ¡ŉƱ Ɔšϵτ 67%ʄ 33%0Ŝ*Œóîś0ûȜŞŧƀņ Ŀïϵ¡ŭ͒˅%̃̐Ι̃ÞÆ ƉďϵñÆˏ͢Ȭ/Ϯ]coc3˟˰ϯŞŧƝŞsƣżH4bE@qjϵrko] kooȰνɎƂƀA Ŏŕ ŋŊ
1. ϥċˌϒ xϮ G 4 yϯGWh 3şĴ./G
3. #3´ϵϥċˌϒǉɊřˌϒǦ3Ξˁ0Ĩ<ǂϙM Ŏŕ ÓċĊı
2. ̃̐3NnVaKÓǶ))ȧź3ϒʘƉαKϥċˌϒ,¶ȻƉαZbkoϵa) Δɤˏϥċˌϒ-̶ͯ}{MPKˁ G
S ƟŅ ſĚdNj
2. ɹƂͦˏ͏Ɍrko] koo-nOcwkjKˁ G2 )3
aqU0) +4.'EÃ̐0ˉ/G 4 ˭ϣ3ϥċˌϒƉαſĚ ƆšR Đƨſŵ
1. Ȱνɰ͏Ɍɂνϵ1 ƯP ĞİÒı
1. ʰȢ]co
5. #3´ϵϥċˌϒ0DGΑč:©ßċ͹Ɇ]coK͒˺D }Şŧ Ƃƀ1. zZ̶ͯ 5,000 MW aqU,4ȧź3ˌϒǦ4ϥċˌϒKΑčG-,ʑƖGzZ̶ͯ 6,500 MW aqU,4Į ˌϒǦ3;L.¶ȻHG͆Ĵ_PZ (CC) -ʰʬhy (CT) ˌϒǦ3
̋>ĴJ!0DFščG
uŐÓóƲŦƊć
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B ƊćƱĸ Æø
2. ĵŖśE
U uŐÓó û
3. ϥɿ©ʔϵ24 Ȱν3ϥΗƮŗÙK] koo͒˺3©ʔÙ-+ˁ
#H¸ G 4¸3ťĒKnOcwkj͒˺0ˁ %
6. ʤċˌϒ3Í̏ÛɧK̥ǡϵ͒˅ˏÛɧ-ƿăÛɧ3̦K̥ǡƱ¡Şŧ Ɔš
G ƚƱƩ/ŞŧƪŇH į¡ŉƱ dNin?
TĻ¡ŉƱ dNin?
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8. #3´ϵΟĦ3ˌϒ}{MP0ǉ Ξˁ
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2. ͽĒÛɧ]coK̥ǡ
1. Ȱ̃ýnhϵb) ϥċˌϒ}{MPτ3Ȱ̃ýnh4 18 _P
o3ȧź3QOp{MϮ¢-+ĝ͈Ϊ-Ė͈Ϊϯ0Ŝ*ʄ3Ȱ̃ýnh4NPpɋΪ3ȇɖH+ GʄŖś3úċ0Ŝ*
2. ϥċˌϒ}{MPϵb) 1 Ȩ3Ȱνɰ
3. ϥɿnh-̶ͯnhĵɂ
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113

Ź A.8 24jhnP SEIŎŕ ÓċŴǀÓċâϵIlex, UMIST, UCD, QUB, 2004Ŏŕ ÀńŊƶÃǀÓċĐėϵNPpðĿŒ2006ϭ2010 ƯƱ¡Şŧ ĿïϵNPpϒċ̃̐ϮNPpðĿŒϭĖNPpϯ
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117