Barriers to a Low-Carbon Society - Summary
Mike Norton, Innovation Management, Shinshu University
The current situation is that climate change is proceeding at the pessimistic end of theIPCC-predicted range. Carbon emissions are accelerating and the targets to constrain
global warming within 2-3o require CO2 emissions to peak within the next 10 years. So
we need a major change and fast, not just adjustments at the edges!
Yet the current growth drivers are powerful. These are population, per capita emissions
in developing countries and failure to reduce carbon intensity in developed countries.
There are pernicious secondary effects. As wealth increases there are direct effects onemissions (more energy consumed) and indirect effects via lifestyle (e.g. increased meat= increased deforestation). Some “solutions” (e.g. biofuels) may make matters worse.
Will consumers lead the way by becoming green? No way! Green choices are limitedby the market’s ability to present significant choices. Those trying to consume
sustainability are outnumbered by those who claim to be ‘green’ but do not act, and by
those who are not even concerned. While we see green themes in advertising,innovations which are more carbon efficient are offset by those which add to emissions.
People may be starting to accept that there may be implication for lifestyle but resist
anything other than trivial measures. Politicians are not prepared to challenge this.
The current situation is a product of our economic system; yet we have not yet engaged
the system in solving the problem. Energy companies prefer to challenge the sciencerather than invest in finding a solution. Coal companies expect the government to payfor research into clean coal. With carbon, the polluter pays principle is evaded. TheKeidanren opposes emission reduction targets even though Japan’s Innovation 25
initiative identified sustainable industries as having the double dividend of environment
protection and economic benefit. National policies abound with examples whereindividual infrastructure decisions take priority over national strategy on emissions.
So moving to low carbon is like pushing water uphill. It will have little effect until theslope changes and helps it to go downhill. Environmental protection is still a cost or aduty. It needs to be made a profit centre and the only way to do this is by having auniversal and unavoidable carbon price. Then consumers will start to have more
realistic choices and green choices will be rewarded. However, consumers will not in
the short term accept constraints to their lifestyle by foregoing their air trips, their cars,or even their patio heaters. So while a carbon price may help it will not move to a low
carbon society fast enough. The only area which can be targeted to achieve large
reductions is energy production, which must be decarbonised as a matter of urgency. In
particular, coal must be decarbonised - effective technology must be developed with anurgency equivalent to the Manhattan project. Those investing in coal must expect toconvert to CCS well within the lifetime of the plant or pay high costs. Zero carbon
electricity must receive appropriate credit for its lack of carbon emissions including
nuclear.

If we can decarbononise the energy supply, then it gives more time for the slower acting
processes of innovation in products, marketing and consumer tastes towards a lowercarbon footprint.
Finally the 32% of emissions which come from land use/change cannot be ignored in a
low-carbon society. These emissions are driven by some political ‘no-go’ areas population growth, dietary changes, demand for timber, food and now biofuels.
Tackling deforestation requires reduction of these growth drivers. Costs of reducing
deforestation need to be transferred to the activities driving deforestation and theprinciple of sustainable use needs to become the essential precondition for development
activities by the international organs such as the World Bank, as well as forinternational trade under WTO rules.
In short it is much easier to visualise what a low carbon society might look like than toget started on the long road to achieving it. That requires some ‘inconvenient truths’, so
let’s give the summit a realistic assessment of the difficulties and avoid false hopes andbenign remedies which we know will be inadequate.