Source: Alexander Hafemann6 • 2008–2009 State of the WildPERSPECTIVE OF
A CLIMATOLOGISTnt

Tipping Poi
JAMES HANSEN“Animals are on the run. Plants are migrating too.”1 I wrote those words in 2006
to draw attention to the fact that climate change was already under way. People
do not notice climate change because it is masked by day-to-day weather fluctuations, and we reside in comfortable homes. Animals and plants, on the other
hand, can survive only within certain climatic conditions, which are now changing. The National Arbor Day Foundation had to redraw its maps for the zones inwhich tree species can survive, and animals are shifting to new habitats as well.
Are these gradual changes in the wild consistent with dramatic scientific assessments of a crystallizing planetary emergency? Unfortunately, yes. Present examples only hint at the scale of the planetary emergency that climate studies reveal
with increasing clarity.
Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-madeJAMES HANSEN is director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, but the perspectives here are his own. Hansen is also Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and he appeared in An Inconvenient Truth. He has also criticized theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for not adequately addressing the danger oflarge sea level rise.
Tipping Point • 7

We are at the tipping point because
the climate state includes large,
ready positive feedbacks provided
by the Arctic sea ice, the West
Antarctic ice sheet, and muchof Greenland’s ice.

greenhouse gases reach alevel where major climatechanges can proceed mostly
under their own momentum. Warming will shift climatic zones by intensifying
the hydrologic cycle, affecting freshwater availability
and human health. We will see repeated coastal tragedies associated withstorms and continuously rising sea levels. The implications are profound,and the only resolution is for humans
to move to a fundamentally different
energy pathway within a decade. Otherwise, it will be too late for one-thirdof the world’s animal and plant species
and millions of the most vulnerable
members of our own species.
We may be able to preserve the remarkable planet on which civilization
developed, but it will not be easy: special interests are resistant to change
and have inordinate power in our governments, especially in the UnitedStates. Understanding the nature andcauses of climate change is essential tocrafting solutions to our current crisis.

Tipping Point
Earth is heated by sunlight and, in balance, reaches a temperature such thatan amount of heat equal to the absorbed solar energy radiates back tospace. Climate forcings are imposed,
temporary changes to Earth’s energybalance that alter Earth’s mean temperature. Forcings include changes in
8 • 2008–2009 State of the Wild

the sun’s brightness, volcanic eruptions that discharge sunlight-reflecting
particles into the stratosphere, andlong-lived human-made greenhousegases that trap heat.
Forcings are amplified or diminished by other changes within the
climate system, known as feedbacks.
Fast feedbacks—changes that occur
quickly in response to temperaturechange—amplify the initial temperature change, begetting additional
warming. As the planet warms, fast
feedbacks include more water vapor,which traps additional heat, and lesssnow and sea ice, which exposes dark
surfaces that absorb more sunlight.
Slower feedbacks also exist. Due towarming, forests and shrubs are moving poleward into tundra regions. Expanding vegetation, darker than tundra, absorbs sunlight and warms theenvironment. Another slow feedback
is increasing wetness (i.e., darkness) of
the Greenland and West Antarctica ice
sheets in the warm season. Finally, as
tundra melts, methane, a powerfulgreenhouse gas, is bubbling out. Paleoclimatic records confirm thatthe long-lived greenhouse gases—

methane, carbon dioxide,
and nitrous oxide—all increase with the warming ofoceans and land. These positive feedbacks amplify climate change over decades,
centuries, and longer.
The predominance of
positive feedbacks explains why
Earth’s climate has historically undergone large swings: feedbacks work inboth directions, amplifying cooling, as
well as warming, forcings. In the past,
feedbacks have caused Earth to be
whipsawed between colder andwarmer climates, even in response to
weak forcings, such as slight changes
in the tilt of Earth’s axis.2
The second fundamental propertyof Earth’s climate system, partneringwith feedbacks, is the great inertia ofoceans and ice sheets. Given theoceans’ capacity to absorb heat, whena climate forcing (such as increased
greenhouse gases) impacts global temperature, even after two or three
decades, only about half of the eventual surface warming has occurred. Ice
sheets also change slowly, although accumulating evidence shows that they
can disintegrate within centuries or
perhaps even decades.
The upshot of the combination ofinertia and feedbacks is that additional
climate change is already “in thepipeline”: even if we stop increasing
greenhouse gases today, more warming will occur. This is sobering when

Source: Tom Vezo/naturepl.com.

one considers the present status ofEarth’s climate. Human civilization
developed during the Holocene (thepast 12,000 years). It has been warm
enough to keep ice sheets off North
America and Europe, but cool enoughfor ice sheets to remain on Greenlandand Antarctica. With rapid warmingof 0.6°C in the past 30 years, global
temperature is at its warmest level inthe Holocene.3
The warming that has already occurred, the positive feedbacks thathave been set in motion, and the additional warming in the pipeline together have brought us to the precipice ofa planetary tipping point. We are at
the tipping point because the climate
state includes large, ready positive
feedbacks provided by the Arctic sea
ice, the West Antarctic ice sheet, andmuch of Greenland’s ice. Little additional forcing is needed to trigger
these feedbacks and magnify global
warming. If we go over the edge, wewill transition to an environment far
outside the range that has been experienced by humanity, and there will be
no return within any foreseeable future generation. Casualties would include more than the loss of indigenous ways of life in the Arctic andswamping of coastal cities. An intensified hydrologic cycle will produce
both greater floods and greaterdroughts. In the US, the semiarid
states from central Texas through Oklahoma and both Dakotas would be-Brünnich’s guillemot (Uria lomvia), an Arctic seabird, has advanced its egg-laying date atits southern boundary, a phenological change due to global warming.

come more drought-prone and ill suited for agriculture, people, and current
wildlife. Africa would see a great expansion of dry areas, particularly
southern Africa. Large populations in
Asia and South America would lose
their primary dry season freshwater
source as glaciers disappear. A major
casualty in all this will be wildlife.

State of the Wild
Climate change is emerging while thewild is stressed by other pressures—
habitat loss, overhunting, pollution,and invasive species—and it will magnify these stresses.
Species will respond to warming atdiffering paces, affecting many others
through the web of ecological interac-tions. Phenological events, which are
timed events in the life cycle that areusually tied to seasons, may be disrupted. Examples of phenologicalevents include when leaves and flowers emerge and when animals departfor migration, breed, or hibernate. If
species depend on each other during
those times—for pollination or food—the pace at which they respond towarmer weather or precipitation
changes may cause unraveling, cascading effects within ecosystems.
Animals and plants respond to climate changes by expanding, contracting, or shifting their ranges. Isotherms,
lines of a specific average temperature, are moving poleward by approximately thirty-five miles (56 km) per
Tipping Point • 9

Some species face extinction. The following examples represent a handful.
Of particular concern are polar species,

Source: Claire A. Zugmeyer.

decade, meaning many species ranges
may in turn shift at that pace.4 Somealready are: the red fox is moving into

The Mount Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis) survives on asingle mountain in Arizona. “Green islands” on mountains, and the species that live on
them, are pushed higher as temperatures rise, and will be pushed off the planet if global
warming continues.

Arctic fox territory, and ecologists haveobserved that 943 species across all
taxa and ecosystems have exhibited
measurable changes in their phenologies and/or distribution over the past
several decades.5 However, their potential routes and habitat will be limited by geographic or human-made obstacles, and other species’ territories.
Continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many
ecosystems, which together form thefabric of life on Earth and provide awide range of services to humanity.
10 • 2008–2009 State of the Wild

because they are being pushed off theplanet. In Antarctica, Adelie and emperor penguins are in decline, as
shrinking sea ice has reduced the abundance of krill, their food source.6 Arctic polar bears already contend withmelting sea ice, from which they huntseals in colder months. As sea ice recedes earlier each year, populations ofpolar bears in Canada have declined byabout 20 percent, with the weight offemales and the number of surviving
cubs decreasing a similar amount. Asof this writing, the US Fish andWildlife Service is still considering protecting polar bears, but only after it
was taken to court for failure to act on
the mounting evidence that polar bears
will suffer greatly due to global warming.7
Life in many biologically diverse
alpine regions is similarly in danger ofbeing pushed off the planet. When agiven temperature range moves up a
mountain, the area with those climatic conditions becomes smaller androckier, and the air thinner, resulting
in a struggle for survival for some
alpine species.
In the Southwest US, the endemic
Mount Graham red squirrel survives
on a single Arizona mountain, an “island in the sky,” an isolated green spotin the desert. The squirrels, protected
as an endangered species, had rebounded to a population of over 500,
but their numbers have since declined
to between 100 and 200 animals.8 Lossof the red squirrel will alter the forest
because its middens are a source offood and habitat for chipmunks, voles,
and mice.
A new stress on Graham redsquirrels is climatic: increased heat,drought, and fires. Heat-stressed
forests are vulnerable to prolonged
beetle infestation and catastrophic
fires. Rainfall still occurs, but it is erratic and heavy, and dry periods are more
intense. The resulting forest fires burnhotter, and the lower reaches of theforest cannot recover.

In the marine world, loggerhead
turtles are also suffering. These great
creatures return to beaches every two
to three years to bury a clutch of eggs.
Hatchlings emerge after two months
and head precariously to the sea toface a myriad of predators. Years ofconservation efforts to protect loggerhead turtles on their largest nestingarea in the US, stretching over 20 miles
of Florida coastline, seemed to be stabilizing the South Florida subpopulation.9 Now climate change places a
new stress on these turtles. Florida
beaches are increasingly lined with sea
walls to protect against rising seas andstorms.
Sandybeachesseaward of the walls are limited
and may be lost if the sea level rises
substantially.
Some creatures seem more adaptable to climate change. The armadillo,
a prehistoric critter that has beenaround for over 50 million years, is likely to extend its range northward in the
US. But the underlying cause of theclimatic threat to the Graham redsquirrel and other species—from grizzlies, whose springtime food sources

may shift, to the isolated State of the Planet
snow vole in the mountains of southern Spain—is There is a huge gap between what is“business-as-usual” use of understood about global warming—
fossil fuels. Predicted by the scientific community—andwarming of several de- what is known about global warming
grees Celsius would surely —by those who need to know: thecause mass extinctions. public and policymakers.
Prior major warmings in
The crystallizing science points to
Earth’s history, the most recent occur- an imminent planetary emergency.
ring 55 million years ago with the re- The dangerous level of carbon dioxlease of large amounts of Arctic ide, at which we will set in motion unmethane hydrates,10 resulted in the ex- stoppable changes, is at most 450 parts
tinction of half or more of
the species then on theplanet.
Might the Graham redsquirrel and snow vole be“saved” if we transplantthem to higher mountains? They would have tocompete for new niches—
and there is a tangled webof interactions that has
evolved among species
and ecosystems. What isthe prospect that we
could understand, letalone reproduce, these Loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling emerging
complex interactions that from egg. Loggerhead decline has been arrested by theprotection of nesting areas on Florida beaches and othercreate ecological stability? measures, but these areas will be threatened by rising“Assisted migration” is sea level.
thus an uncertain prospect.11 The best chance for all species per million (ppm), but it may be less.12
is a conscious choice by humans to Carbon dioxide has already increased
pursue an alternative energy scenario from a preindustrial level of 280 ppm
to stabilize the climate.
to 383 ppm in 2007, and it is now increasing by about 2 ppm per year. We
Tipping Point • 11

Source: Turtle Time, Inc.

Prior major warmings inEarth’s history, the mostrecent occurring 55 million
years ago . . . resulted in
the extinction of half ormore of the species thenon the planet.

Carbon dioxide contained in fossil fuel reservoirs, (a) the dark areas being the portion
already used; (b, c) cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions by different countries
as a percent of global total; (d) per capita emissions for the 10 largest emitters of fossil fuelcarbon dioxide.

must make significant changes withina decade to avoid setting in motion
unstoppable climatic change.
We need to address carbon dioxide
emissions immediately. Global industrialization, powered first by coal, andlater by oil and gas, resulted in fossil
fuel pollutants that choked London on
smog, set a river on fire in the US, anddamaged forests by acid rain. We aresolving those pollution problems, but
we did not address them until they hit
us with full force. That approach, to
12 • 2008–2009 State of the Wild

wait and see and clean up the messpost facto, will not work in the case ofcarbon dioxide emissions and climatechange because of inertial effects,
warming already in the pipeline, andtipping points. On the contrary, ignoring emissions would lock in catastrophic climatic change.
Instead, we must resolve to move
rapidly to the next phase of the industrial revolution—expanding the benefits of advanced technology to help
maintain the atmosphere, and conse-

quently the wonders of the natural
world. A review of basic fossil fuelfacts reveals why the shift must be
made soon. Based on the estimatedamount of carbon dioxide locked ineach remaining fossil fuel reservoir—
including oil, gas, coal, and unconventional fossil fuels (tar sands, tar shale,
heavy oil, methane hydrates)13—burning readily available oil and gas resources alone will take atmosphericcarbon dioxide to levels near 450 ppm.
Burning coal and unconventional fossil fuels, which energy companies are
now exploring, could take atmospheric carbon dioxide to far greater levels.
To understand the limits on futureand massive extinctions—only if the planetary enerIn my view, special interests
gy balance is restored at an
have undue sway with our
acceptable global temperature. Temperature flucgovernments and havetuates from year to year,
effectively promoted
but it is increasing by
about 0.2°C per decade.
minimalist actions andAlthough estimates of
permissible
warming
growth in fossil fuels, rather
must be refined as knowlthan making the scale ofedge advances, the upshotof crystallizing science isinvestments necessary.
that the “safe” global temperature level is, at most,use of fossil fuels, an awareness of the about 1°C greater than the year 2000
carbon cycle is critical. In this cycle, global temperature.
This 1°C limit on additional global
the ocean quickly takes up a fractionof carbon dioxide emissions, but up- warming implies the aforementioned
take slows as carbon dioxide added to carbon dioxide ceiling of about 450
the ocean exerts a “back pressure.” ppm.14 Pinpointing this carbon dioxFurther uptake depends upon carbon ide ceiling is complicated due to otherdioxide mixing into the deep ocean human-made forcings, especiallyand precipitating out of ocean water methane, nitrous oxide, and “black
via carbonate sediments. This means soot.” For example, an alternative scethat about one-third of carbon dioxide nario allows carbon dioxide levels toemissions remain in the atmosphere peak at 475 ppm because it assumes aafter 100 years and one-quarter still re- large reduction of methane.15 Howmain after 500 years. Indeed, carbon ever, human-made sulfate aerosols
dioxide from the Industrial Revolution (reflective particles that have a coolingstill around today implies heavy re- effect) are likely to decrease, neutralizsponsibilities for Europe and the US.
ing these potential reductions in
Carbon reservoirs and the ocean’s methane. Therefore 450 ppm is apace of removing carbon dioxide are good comprehensive estimate of theimportant boundary conditions in maximum allowable carbon dioxide.
framing solutions to the climate crisis. Indeed, if recent ice loss from
We can avert planetary transformation Antarctica is a sign, it may be—eventual disintegration of ice sheets that even 450 ppm is excessive.

Since we could reach 450 ppm
within two to three decades, weshould be inspired now to change ourenergy systems. Based on the preceding boundary conditions, the following is a four-point strategy to avoid
dangerous climate change.
1. Coal and unconventional fossil
fuels must be curtailed andused only with capture andsequestration of the carbon
dioxide underground. Existingcoal-fired power plants should
be phased out over the next few
decades.
2. Carbon price and efficiency
standards must be implemented. Recognizing the unusualenergy concentration and mobility of fossil fuels—with
which little else can currently
compete—the practical way totransition to a postpetroleum
era is to impose a moderate but
continually rising carbon price.
The price can be via a tax on
fossil fuels, a ration-and-tradesystem that limits impacts on
people least able to afford anenergy tax, or a combination of
methods. This will make fossil
fuels pay for environmental
damage while stretching remaining oil and gas to accommodate sustainable economic
growth. The certainty of arising price will inspire indusTipping Point • 13

tries to innovate and will reduce the incentive to exploit
unconventional fossil fuels withhigh carbon dioxide emissions,such as tar shale.
In addition, we need realefficiency standards, for vehicles, buildings, and lighting. We
must remove barriers to energy
efficiency, such as the policy ofmost utility companies to promote energy consumption
rather than conservation.
3. We must take steps to draw
down atmospheric carbon
dioxide. Farming and forestry
practices that enhance carbon
retention in the soil and biosphere must be supported. Biofuel power plants with carbon
sequestration can draw down
atmospheric carbon dioxide,16
putting anthropogenic carbon
dioxide back underground.
Carbon dioxide can besequestered beneath ocean
sediments17 and in other safe
geologic sites.
4. We must take steps to reduceother, non–carbon dioxide
forcings, especially black soot,methane, and ground-levelozone via stricter regulations.
International implementation ofthese steps requires recognition of responsibilities. Because of the long lifetime of carbon dioxide already emit14 • 2008–2009 State of the Wild

ted, Europe bears a large responsibility. But the responsibility of the US is
more than three times that of any
other nation, and it will continue to be
the largest for at least several decades,
even though China will exceed the US
in new emissions within a year or two.
Sadly, the requirements to avoid
global disasters are not yet widely recognized: Germany intends to replace
nuclear power plants with coal. But
Europe, the US, and other developed
countries should place a moratorium
on new coal-fired power plants until
carbon capture and sequestration are
in place. This cannot wait until similar
restrictions are practical in China andIndia. National responsibilities for climate change and per capita emissions
are an order of magnitude greater in
the US, Canada, and Australia than inIndia and China, and define moral obligations.
At the same time, China and developing countries should bulldoze oldtechnology coal power plants andbuild new coal power plants with only
the latest technology. Storms andfloods attending climate change will
hit developing countries hardest because most megacities near sea levelare in those countries. This should
provide incentive for China and India
to address climate change.
Efficiency of future vehicle poweris also vital. California’s requirementfor 30 percent efficiency improvement
has great value. In contrast, a pro-

posed national energy plan for 20 percent ethanol in vehicle fuels, derived inlarge part from corn, does more harmthan good. It will do little to reduce
emissions—because producing ethanol currently requires a lot of energy—and it would degrade carbon retention in soils. There are ways that renewable or other carbon dioxide–freeenergies may eventually power vehicles, but half-measures should not be
dictated without sufficient scientificinput to balance vested agribusinessinterests.
That said, biofuels can play a majorpart in our energy future. As a native
Iowan, I like to imagine that the Midwest will rescue compatriots threatened by rising seas. Native grasses, appropriately cultivated, and perhaps
with improved varieties, can draw
down atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The prairies may contribute, if we geton with solving the climate problem
before superdrought hits them. Biofuel investment should proceed with
input from scientists and conservationists, because some industry andgovernment biofuel production plans
would clear more forest for plantations of oil palm and soy with consequences for wildlife and wildlands.

A Final Picture
Earth’s paleoclimatic record tells usthat atmospheric greenhouse gases are
now near the dangerous level where
tipping points become unavoidable.

Source: Philippe Clement/naturepl.com.

Yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) advanced their emergence from hibernation
by 23 days in the Rocky Mountains, presumably due to global warming.

We can choose a course to reverse
greenhouse gas growth and promptly
change our energy strategy. A step inthe right direction was the April 2007
decision by the US Supreme Court that
the Environmental Protection Agency
can and should regulate greenhousegas emissions. However, much more isneeded.
In my view, special interests haveundue sway with our governments
and have effectively promoted minimalist actions and growth in fossil
fuels, rather than making the scale ofinvestments necessary.
US government complicity withspecial interests was clear when, at apractice press conference held by
NASA on Arctic sea ice, a member ofmy group suggested that a reduction
in greenhouse gas emissions could
stem sea ice loss. His suggestion
prompted a government “minder” toproclaim “that’s unacceptable,” on the

grounds that it was a policy statement,
when in fact it was scientifically based.
While making policy is the right of
our elected representatives, scientists
had connected the dots of climate research and were prevented from communicating that information. In thiscase, vested interests posed a threat toour home planet and the fabric of life
upon it.
It is worth imagining how ourgrandchildren will look back on us.
The picture that I fear has the polluters, the utilities, and automakers
standing in court demanding theright to continue to emit carbon dioxide for the sake of short-term profits.
The disturbing part is that we,through our national government,
are standing alongside the polluters,
officially as a hulking amicus curiae(friend of the court), arguing against
limitations on emissions. Is this the
picture of our generation that wewant to be remembered by?
We live in a democracy, and policies
represent our collective will. If weallow the planet to pass tipping points,
it will be hard to defend our role. The
state of the wild is in our hands, andwe can still preserve creation and serve
humanity worldwide. A drive for energy efficiency and clean energy sources
will produce high-tech jobs. Restoration of clean air will be universally beneficial. Rural life and the planet canbenefit from intelligent developmentof biofuels and renewable energy.
At the front lines, observing thechanges in the wild, conservationists
serve as a voice for the plants and animals that have already started reacting
to climate warming. To conserve as
much biodiversity as we can, conservationists must unite with many others to push for a far more radical reduction in carbon dioxide emissions
than has hitherto been considered
practical. Otherwise, alpine and polar
species, coral reefs, and species livingin areas that become arid will be lost
over the next century.
nTipping Point • 15

16. Anon. 2003; M. Fenton et al., “Linking bats to emerging diseases,” Science311(2006): 1098–99.
17. J. Newcomb, “Thinking ahead: The business significance of an avian influenza
pandemic,” Bio Economic Research Associates, 2006; Original source, J. Pritchett et al.,“Animal disease economic impacts: A survey of literature and typology of research
approaches,” International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 8(2005).
18. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/
westnile/surv&controlCaseCount07_detailed.htm.
19. Tasmania Department of Primary Industries and Water, www.dpiw.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/LBUN-5QF86G?open; J. Bunce, “Tassie devil tumour breakthrough,” The Australian, Oct. 3, 2007.
20. G. Vogel, “Tracking Ebola’s deadly march among wild apes,” Science 314(2006):
1522–23; World Health Organization www.who.int/csr/don/2007_10_03a/en/index.html.
21. Whirling Disease Initiative, http://whirlingdisease.montana.edu.
22. “Trans-boundary diseases hamper livestock development,” Botswana Press
Agency, June 27, 2005, www.gov.bw/cgi-bin/news.cgi?d=200506278:=Trans-boundary_diseases_hamper_livestock_development.

Introduction: Future States of the Wild by Kent H. Redford
1. J. Marshall, “Future Recall: Your Mind Can Slip through Time,” New Scientist,
March 24, 2007.

Part I: State of the Wild
Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist by James Hansen
1. J. Hansen, “The Threat to the Planet,” New York Review of Books,, July 13, 2006.
2. J. Hansen et al., “Climate Change and Trace Gases,” Philosophical Transaction of
the Royal Society A 365 (2007): 1925–1954.
3. J. Hansen et al., “Global Temperature Change,” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences. 103 (2006): 14288–93.
4. C. Parmesan, “Ecological and Evolutionary Response to Recent Climate
Change,” Annual Review of Ecology and Evolution of Systems 37 (2006): 637–69.
5. C. Parmesan, “Ecological and Evolutionary Response,” 2006.
6. L. Gross, “As the Antarctic Ice Pack Recedes, a Fragile Ecosystem Hangs in the
Balance,” PLoS Biol 3, no. 4 (2005): e127.
7. E. Pennisi, “U.S. Weighs Protection for Polar Bears,” Science 315 (2007): 25.
8. C. Jordan, “Computers May Help Save Mount Graham Red Squirrel,” Univ.
Arizona News, April 27, 2006; T. Egan, “Heat Invades Cool Heights over Arizona
Desert,” New York Times, March 27, 2007.
9. Fish and Wildlife Service, Loggerhead Sea Turtle, www.fws.gov/northflorida/SeaTurtles%Factsheets/loggerheadsea-turtle.htm.
10. D. Archer, “Methane Hydrates and Anthropogenic Climate Change,”
Biogeosciences Discussion 4 (2007): 521–44.
11. C. Zimmer, “A Radical Step to Preserve a Species: Assisted Migration,” New YorkTimes, January 23, 2007.
12. J. Hansen et al., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS
model Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion 7 (2007): 2287–312.

258 • Notes

13. Proven and anticipated reserves are based on Energy Information
Administration estimates. Other experts estimate higher or lower reserves, but theuncertainties do not alter our conclusions.
14. J. Hansen, “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate,” 2007.
15. J. Hansen et al., “Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative
Scenario,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97 (2000): 9875–80.
16. J. Hansen, Political Interference with Government Climate Change Science. Submitted text accompanying oral testimony given March 19, 2007 during hearings on“Political Interference with Science: Global Warming, Part II” of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform of the U.S. House of Representatives. www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/20070319105800-43018.pdf; http://oversight.house.gov/story.asp?ID=1214
17. K. Z. House et al., “Permanent Carbon Dioxide Storage in Deep-Sea
Sediments,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (2006): 12291–95.

Discoveries by Margaret Kinnaird
1. B. M. Beehler et al., “A New Species of Smoky Honeyeater (Meliphagidae:
Melipotes) from Western New Guinea,” Auk 124 (2007): 1000–9.
2. E. Kranz, “Scientists Believe Bird’s Head Seascape Is Richest on Earth,”www.conservation.org/xp/frontlines/2006/09180601.xml.
3. A. Singa et al. “Macaca Munzala: A New Species from Western Arunachal
Pradesh, Northeastern India,” International Journal of Primatology 26 (2005): 977–89.
4. R. H. Bain et al., “Three New Indochinese Species of Cascade Frogs (Amphibia:
Ranidae) Allied to Rana Archotaphus,” Copeia 1 (2006): 43–59.
5. Bulletin of the British Ornithologists Club, Vol. 126 ( June 2006).
6. K. A. Raskoff and G. I. Matsumoto, “Stellamedusa ventana, a New Mesopelagic
Scyphomedusa from the Eastern Pacific Representing a New Subfamily, theStellamedusinae,” Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the UK 84 (2004): 37–42.
7. E. Macpherson, W. Jones, and M. Segonzac, “A New Squat Lobster Family ofGalatheoidea (Crustacea, Decapoda, Anomura) from the Hydrothermal Vents of the
Pacific–Antarctic Ridge,” Zoosystema 24 (2005): 709–23.
8. P. Tyson, “Living at Extremes,” Public Broadcasting Service, July 1998,
www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/abyss/.
9. P. M. Kappeler et al., “Morphology, Behvaiour and Molecular Evolution of Giant
Mouse Lemurs (Mirza spp.) Gray, 1870, with Description of a New Species,” Primate
Report 71: 3–26.
10. T. Cucchi et al., “A New Endemic Species of the Subgenus Mus (Rodentia,
Mammalia) on the Island of Cyprus,” Zootaxa 1241 (2006): 1–36.
11. R. Athreya, “A New Species of Liocichla (Aves: Timaliidae) from Eaglenest
Wildlife Sanctuary, Arunachal Pradesh, India,” Indian Birds 2 (2006): 86–94.
12. T. Jones et al., “The Highland Mangabey Lophocebus kipunji: a New Species ofAfrican Monkey,” Science 308 (2005): 1161–64.
13. T. Davenport et al., “A New Genus of African Monkey, Rungwecebus:
Morphology, Ecology, and Molecular Phylogenetics,” Science 312 (2006): 1378–81.

The Rarest of the Rare: Some of the World’s Most Endangered Animals
by Catherine Grippo, Taylor H. Ricketts, and Jonathan Hoekstra
1. “Extinction crisis escalates: Red List shows apes, corals, vultures, dolphins all in
danger,” www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2007/09/12_pr_redlist.htm.

Notes • 259