Economically Sustainable
Industries in Space –Future Visions and Genesis
Erik Kulu
Space Resources Week 2024
2024-03-26

Factories in Space (factories-in-space.com)• First public database of commercial entities in the emerging in-spaceeconomy, space resources, and microgravity manufacturing fields.
• The directory was started in 2018 and currently has over 920 entries.
• New in-space economy is the new extraterrestrial space industries.
• In-space economy means generating revenue in space, using assets in space
to provide services to other assets in orbit or beyond.
• Alternative names: space-based economy, space-for-space, on-orbit
economy, LEO economy, etc. Includes: space resources, cislunar, Moon andMars economies.
• Predicted to drive the $1 trillion space economy, but currently most have small
or no (commercial) revenues.

• This presentation is about the forefront of in-space economy, going into
the nascent beginnings and future visions.
• By examining early milestones and emerging trends, we envision a future
where orbital factories hum with activity, uniting space solar power, inspace manufacturing, and resource utilization.
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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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In-Space Economy
The new extraterrestrial space industries.

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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Visions
Coherent visions about in-space economy in 2050 with bustling
multidisciplinary activities around Moon, Mars, and asteroids.

Space Resources Week 2024

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

InfographicSpace Resources Week 2024

Statistical Look at Mars Companies in 2020
Economically Sustainable Industries
SpaceInternational- Visions & Genesis
Erik Kulu
23rdinAnnualMars Society Convention

88Why & Challenges

The dawn of sustainable in-space industries beckons, promising afuture where endeavors in space are both pioneering andeconomically viable.
However, to achieve that, humanity needs to find new economic drivers
for spaceflight.
Space Resources Week 2024

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

9Space Helps to Solve Earth’s Problems
Humankind settling space will help to solve some of thebiggest problems here:
1. It will create the technologies.
2. It will change us (Overview Effect, common positive goals,
zero-sum bias etc).
Some example solutions:
1. Abundant cheap green energy would make carbon
capture, vertical farming and water desalinationcommercially sustainable.
2. Moving most heavy manufacturing to space, where there
is no life to harm and already full of planet formation
debris, would decrease environmental impact.
Space Resources Week 2024

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

10Need New Drivers to go to Space• Need new economic drivers for spaceflight.
• National budgets will not increase much.
• Something bigger than industries of communications, remote sensing, launch and research.
• This is the missing piece to speed up development for the exciting Star Trek-like future.

• Not many “picks & shovels” will be sold until we find “gold” in space or the “killer app”.
• Railways were built where it made sense, because of people, activities and resources.
• Profit may have a bad reputation in some circles, but it enables a lot of R&D.
“If we can establish a Mars colony, we canalmost certainly colonize the whole Solar
System, because we'll have created a strong
economic forcing function for theimprovement of space travel.”Elon Musk, Aeon, Sept 2014
Space Resources Week 2024

“Most important would be the construction offactories that could make use of the special
properties of space - to manufacture objects
that could be difficult or impossible tomanufacture on Earth.
Asimov predictions for 2019 in 1983 in The Stare

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

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Space Forecasts & Economic Sustainability• Space has an optimistic forecast problems. Or alternatively very pessimistic, but rarely realistic.
• Space economy has been estimated at $400-500 billion annually and predicted to grow to $1T by 2040.
•However, the “real space” of launch, satellite manufacturing, telecommunications and remote sensing etc., areonly approximately tens of billions each, broadly up to about $100 billion in yearly total. [see e.g., Pierre Lionnet]•Emerging markets like satellite servicing, lunar landers, space mining are a fraction of that.

• In-Space Economy•

Space mining market was $0.49 billion in 2017 and expected $2.84B by 2025. (Markets and Markets, 2018 Oct)•

Euroconsult predicts on-orbit services will generate over $4B in 2031 in ”Space Logistics Markets, 2nd Ed” from 2023.

•

NSR’s In-Orbit Services - 2nd Ed from 2019 forecast $4.5B in cumulative revenues by 2028.

• In-Space Manufacturing•

1987 - Perfect Latex Spheres: Estimates that market for 100-micron spheres could be $200-300M annually.[2]•1996 – Semiconductors: “Independent projections for electronic materials have estimated a long-term, spacebased economic contribution of between $6 billion (Rockwell International) and $31 billion annually.“[1]•1998 - ZBLAN: News in 1998 estimated ZBLAN commercial potential at $2.5 billion.[3][1] Technology Thresholds for Microgravity: Status and Prospects, 1996, D.A. Noever[2] Harry L. Shipman. Space 2000: Meeting the Challenge of a New Era. 1987.
[3] Dave Dooling. ZBLAN Has Great Commercial Potential. February 1998.
[4] https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/space-mining-market-129545886.html

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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“Chicken-and-Egg” Problem• An example of space “chicken-and-egg” dilemma:
1. Even if an asteroid mining company can raise billions tomake it happen at scale, meaningful customers would
likely take years to emerge.
2. However, without raw space resources availability, theindustry and supply chain will not also develop.
Financially stable customers are still missing.

• Completely new markets usually grow (very) slowly andare difficult to predict. Multi-faceted competition too.
• Thus, more gradual approaches are required, often
involving existing (large) markets, that could beserviced from space in new better ways.
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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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First Steps
Emerging space industries, which plausibly already are on a path toovercome these challenges.

Space Resources Week 2024

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

NB! Latest PNG & PDF on
www.factoriesinspace.com

Hype Cycles• Gartner

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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NB! Latest PNG & PDF on
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Market Size and Readiness Chart• Number of customers vs absolute market size

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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Silk Road & Spice Trade
Silk Road and Spice Trade :• Spices, coffee, tea, etc.
• Mostly luxury and novelty products,
not needed for survival or industrial use.

New ship-based routes changed the trade:• Ships filled with other cargo for the first leg.
• Created demand for outposts, resupply,better ships, cafes etc.
• Broadly kickstarted the world economy.

Will an ethical version of “spice trade” happen
for/in space? Chocolate, beer, etc.?
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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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NB! Latest PNG & PDF on
www.factoriesinspace.com

Killer app or “gold” -> Flywheel Effect

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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NB! Latest PNG & PDF on
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Potential Roadmap
In-space manufacturing could be enabler and first customer for numerous asteroid mining,commercial space station and utility companies in space. If asteroid mining will be a $1
trillion business, then in-space manufacturing will be a $10 trillion business thanks to all thematerials made into products with extra value.

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Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

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Conclusions
Possible paths?
1.

Slow growth path – primarily government funding and buying
COTS services (resupply, space station, landers, etc.), withslowly increasing B2B activities on the side. [see e.g., Philip Metzger]

2.

Flywheel path – discovering the “killer app” or “space gold”.

Flywheel industries?
• Novelty/luxury products made in space?
• Unique/advanced product/material made in space?
• Helium-3? Not a blocker for fusion, but other uses?
• Space solar power? Energy market is huge and solves problems.
Space Resources Week 2024

Economically Sustainable Industries in Space - Visions & Genesis

Erik Kulu

20www.factoriesinspace.com

Economically SustainableIndustries in Space:Future Visions and Genesis
Space Resources Week 2024
2024-03-26

Erik Kulu

erik@factoriesinspace.com