3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop
Tokyo, February 13-15, 2008

CO2 Reduction and Transport Sector in
Thailand: Some Insights

Ram M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of TechnologyThailand
Email: ram@ait.ac.thThailand: Brief Background• Population: 64.76 million• Population Density: 126 people/km2• GDP: US $ 176 billion• GDP per capita: US $ 2727 (year 2005)• Economy: 2nd largest in ASEAN region• CO2 emission: 179.9 MtCO2 (2004) – 2nd largest emitter in
ASEAN• High passenger vehicle ownership rate (Vehicles/thousandpeople: 324 in Bangkok and 100 (Thailand))• Electricity generation mainly based on fossil fuels (gas,coal)CO2 per capita in Thailand
3.5
3tCO2 per capita

2.5
21.5
10.501990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

CO2 indicator of Thailand
CO2 per GDP (PPP) US$
0.5
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.0501990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

CO2 per GDP US$ (MER)
1.6
1.4
kgCO2/GDP (MER) US$

kgCO2/GDP(PPP) US$

0.45

1.2
10.8
0.6
0.4
0.201990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Predominance of road intransport sector•

Length of Highway: 64,000 km•

Length of Railways: 4070 km (1 m gauge railway line)• 294.63 km double track• 106.01 km triple track.

7060

Transport sector has
the 2nd largest share(38.6% in 2005) inTotal Energy
Consumption.

Mtoe

50
4030
20
1001991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Agriculture

Residential and Commercial

Industrial

Transportation

Source: DEDE (2006)

Transport Sector share in
total CO2 emission
30%
26.3%

27.1%

25%
20.8%
% Share

20%
15%
8.8%

10%
6.3%
5%
0%
ChinaIndiaJapan

ThailandSource: IEA (2006)

OECD Total

In Thailand, transport sector has higher share in total CO2 emission.

Power Sector Fuel Consumption
160
140120GWh10080

OthersImportedDiesel
Fuel Oil
HydroCoal &Natural Gas

60
40
200
1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Source: EGAT, 2007•

Natural gas has been occupying the largest share in the power generation

Environmental Friendly Policies andPrograms in Transport and Power
Sectors in Thailand

Environment Friendly policies• Power Sector– PDP 2007 has a plan for nuclear and coal plants as future powergeneration– Nuclear power plants will be introduced by 2020 with a capacityof 2000 MW.
– Additional nuclear power plants of 2000 MW capacity will beconnected by 2021.
– Power sharing deal/agreements with neighbouring countries:• Purchase of 5000 MW hydro from Union of Myanmar by 2015.
• Purchase of 3000 MW power from China by 2017.
• 6371 MW hydropower from Lao PDR by 2021.

• Transport Sector– To replace current diesel run train with electric locomotives withmedium speed train (120-140 km/hr average)– To develop mass transit to replace private vehicles (813 km longdouble track trains)– To develop intercity electric trains to reduce private vehicles
usage within city.

Action Plan on Bio-diesel Utilization Promotion and Development
Community Scale development
and B100 Specification
Establishment

Raw
Material

Substitute
B100 to10% Diesel

Commercial Scale of B100 Production andUtilization of B5 in the South and theCentral Part of Thailand

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.26

0.6

0.67

1.07

1.40

2010

2011

2012

Expanding palm oil cultivation areas:
4 million Rai in Thailand and 1 million Rai in neighbouring countries
R&D on yield of palm oil (2.7 to 3.3 tonnes/Rai/year)
R&D on yield of Jatropha (0.4 to 1.2 tonnes/Rai/year)
Expanding Jatropha Cultivation Areas

Bio-diesel
Production(MLPD)
Utilization(MLPD)

R&D

0.03

0.06

0.36

0.46

0.76

1.76

3.96

8.50

0.6

1.27915357985

Community-based

Commercial-based

Intensive R&D on enhancing values of by-products from bio-diesel production• Biodiesel target approx. 81 ktoe/day

Gasohol Strategic Plan
2004

Ethanol
1.0 mill. lts /d2005 2006

Phase I
MTBE replacement
Formulated policy
on fade out MTBE
in ULG 95 andpromote Gasohol
91 in some areas
Cab. Res. 18 May 04

Cabinet Resolution
9 Dec. 2003

2007

Ethanol
3.0 mill. lts /d2008 2009 2010 2011

Formulate policy on
Phase IIutilizing HighGasohol Mandate Performance Vehicles for- Spec. of Gasohol 95 & 91
- Emission test on using
Gasohol 95-Defined gasohol use in Spec.
of new vehicle procurement- Requested governments’vehicles to refill gasohol

E10 and FFV- Enforced government
fleets use Gasohol- Gas stations in govern.
must sell Gasohol
Cab. Res. 19 April 05

E10 target is approx 29 ktoe/daySectoral Energy Consumption Shares
400350300Mtoe

250200Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Tranport
Industry150
10050
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO2 Emission Reduction in increased
biofuel availability and modal shift case
Percentage of CO2 Emission Reduction
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%

3.41%

Increased Biofuel
Modal Shift
1.87%

1.47%

0.27%
2050

In increased biofuel case:Base Case

Increased BiofuelsCase, ktoe

Biodiesel

40000

76625

Gasohol

20000

24368

2000-2050
In modal shift case:•10% of passenger travel demand of car, van andpickup would be substituted by mass rapidtransit (electric railways) in 2015.
•20% by 2030 and 30% by 2050.

CO2 emission reduction fromdifferent sectors
CO2 emission reduction from the base case

Agriculture
Commercial
Power
Industrial
Residential
Transport
Total (MtCO2)% of Base Case

Base caseemission,
MtCO2
549
712
7725
9201
405
9544
28137

C1000%
0%
77%
13%
0%
10%
4633
16%

C100 modal
shift
0%0%
68%
11%
0%
21%
5225
19%

C100 modal shift,increased hydro andnuclear
0%0%
72%
3%
0%
24%
6403
23%

Role of modal shift with carbon tax
during 2000-2050
25%

22.8%
20.7%

20%
16.5%

17.0%

C100

C100 with modal shift

%15%

10%

5%0%

••

C100 with modal shift
increased hydroC100 with modal shift
increased hydro and nuclear

Additional hydro and nuclear availability would be fully used under C10+
and C100 by 2050
In addition more CCS based power generation would be required
under C10+ and C100 cases to achieve higher CO2 reduction.

Concluding Remarks• Biofuels have a limited role in CO2 reduction• Modal shift is a major option for carbon mitigation indeveloping countries. However, modal shift alone will
have a limited CO2 reduction potential in the absence ofclimate friendly power generation options.
• Regional hydropower development and nuclear options
need to be considered for significant reduction of CO2emission.
• Other demand side options need to be adopted for
additional carbon emission reduction.

Thank You!