July 1, 2024

Foreword
We live in interesting times – during an extraordinary business / societal inflection of epic proportions.
ChatGPT momentum and metrics (including the trifecta of users / usage / monetization) are unprecedented. The
amount of investment in and focus on Artificial Intelligence from the most valuable companies in the world is
unparalleled, and other capital is also rushing in.
These companies are competing for the next generation of computing. Most are still led by founders who have a
habit of being the displacers, not the displaced. And yet regulators (in America and Europe) are focused on reining
in Big Tech just when these companies are experiencing their biggest competitive threats in years / decades AND
when global state-driven competition is vicious.
This is a critical time for industry, government and higher education to work together. We have the chance toleverage our advantages and augment freedom and democracy, not diminish them. This is the time to step back –to understand the global dynamics and risks at work – and to determine how we can best grow / use artificial
intelligence for the good of our country and the world. We are in an intelligence arms race for hearts, minds, andpower. For the sake of democratic values, it’s crucial for those who uphold these principles to lead not lose.
Actions taken in the next five years will be consequential. It’s important for higher education to take a leadershiprole, in combination with industry and government. The ramp in artificial intelligence – which leverages the history oflearning for learning – affects all forms of learning, teaching, understanding, and decision making. This should be
the best of times…
Our first-pass observations on these topics follow. We begin with an overview, followed by thoughts on theunprecedented ramp in AI usage and the magnitude of investment in AI from America’s leading global technology
companies. Then we explore ways that this rapidly changing AI landscape may drive transformations in higher
education. We hope these add to the discussion.

AI & Universities – Will Masters of Learning Master New Learnings?
Mary Meeker
AI is developing at an epic pace. America is the global leader, and our entrepreneurial and capitalist system
has fostered that leadership. That advantage is the envy of the world, as evinced by the business world’s voting
mechanism – public company market capitalization. Fourteen of the seventeen global companies that carry a value
greater than $500B are headquartered in America, one is in Saudi Arabia (Aramco @ #6), one is in Taiwan (TSMC@ #8), and one is in Denmark (Novo Nordisk at #12).

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The top five most highly valued global public companies are American technology companies – Microsoft,
Apple, NVIDIA, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon. In spite of their already formidable size and influence, thesecompanies are fighting like crazy for leadership in AI as their core businesses come under assault from one
another…and from global competitors (including state actors)…and from entrepreneurs few have heard of (yet).
At the same time, domestic and geopolitical uncertainty make it critical to determine how we maximize thebenefits of AI and minimize the risks. The way we manage this megatrend will define what America looks like inthe decades to come. Business plays a key role here…as does government (in moderation)…as does higher
education.
American institutions of higher learning have been bastions of technological progress…will that be thecase with AI? Rice University Chief Investment Officer Allison Thacker recently asked BOND partner Jay Simonsand me to share thoughts on AI – and its potential impact on universities. American universities emerged as theworld’s gold standard beginning in the 1950s. Owing in large part to the GI Bill, Vannevar Bush and the NSF, andspace race funding, many universities came to exemplify intellectual freedom, democracy, and the promise of theAmerican dream of achieving “success and prosperity through hard work, determination, and initiative” (Oxford
English Dictionary).
Thanks to mobile phone supercomputers and information transparency, however, methods of learning andresearch (for all ages) have changed radically. Any learner with Internet access can get a master class on nearly
any topic – at a frequency / duration that suits their needs and in ways that significantly improve proficiency.
Educational institutions are hard at work looking for the best ways to optimize for these changes.
In the wake of ChatGPT and the AI explosion, we have likely reached a generational, fast and furious
change across education. At their essence, AI and connected technology devices provide multimodal
personalized output that can help users quickly get information and develop skills on their own terms. Tools thatprovide real-time feedback on engagement and skill development will continue to improve, enhancing the evolutionof pattern recognition. AI will increasingly take over many rudimentary tasks, and the ways teachers teach, and theirstudents learn will evolve.
In many ways, AI can be an all-purpose education tool that many have imagined but have never had. Sal
Khan, Khan Academy Founder / CEO, noted in his new book “Brave New Words: How AI Will Revolutionize
Education,” in the chapter “Rise of the AI Tutor” that “educators have known for millennia that one-on-one
instruction – tutoring that works with students at their own time and pace – is the best way for people to learn. It iswhat Alexander the Great had with his teacher, Aristotle. If Alexander was having trouble with a concept, I canimagine Aristotle slowing down for him...the goal was a “mastery of learning.”

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The university of the future will not look like the university of today. Some, like Georgia Tech, MIT and
Arizona State, have rapidly expanded their digital footprints well beyond their physical plant, in part, to drive
economies of scale. Lifelong learning may also be a key part of the future – note that some universities have an
affiliation with senior living. As the world continues to flatten and get more competitive (thank you Tom Friedman,2005), universities will find that AI can be a market share tailwind or a headwind – some will rise to the occasion,others will not.
This is the best of times for motivated learners and a consequential time for regulators and leaders toengage in the transformation of pedagogy, working with (not against) our AI leaders. It’s a critical time toembrace America’s leadership in AI and reimagine the education system in ways that advance curricular flexibility,
promote critical thinking, common sense, grit, creativity and soft skills, and optimize for student (and future worker)
success, intellectual freedom, and American values.

AI Usage & Spending Ramping at Historic Rates
The advance of AI should drive the fastest and biggest transformations, disruptions, and platform shifts intechnology ever seen. While it might seem like an overnight success, the AI crescendo has been building for
decades – in the late 1990s with the likes of NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) and Google’s searchcompilations, in the 2000s with Netflix and Amazon recommendations, X (Twitter) social compilations and Facebook
feed prioritization, and in the 2010s with (among others) Amazon Alexa, Tesla Autopilot, Google Transformers, and
OpenAI’s GPT-2 launch.
For most, though, the inflection point came with the sudden success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch in November
2022. This was AI’s “iPhone Moment”…
●

Fastest User Ramp Ever (for Standalone Product) – ChatGPT took five days to secure 1MM users vs. Apple
iPhone at seventy-four days vs. Facebook at ten months vs. America Online (AOL) at two years…It took
ChatGPT just a few months to secure 100MM users vs. nine months for TikTok and thirty months for Instagram.

●

Fastest Software Revenue Ramp Ever – OpenAI hit a ~$2B revenue run-rate in the first full year post-launchof ChatGPT.

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The rise of AI is only set to increase, fueled by technological advancements, major investments, widespread
consumer and business adoption, and an increasingly competitive landscape. We are at the beginning of a newsupercycle where…
We have access to more data than ever before, and we’re in the early stages of making this accessible,
useful, and pattern-recognizable. ChatGPT jolted in as the easy-to-use front-end AI access tool for consumers
and professionals. Largely trained on Internet data, Large Language Models (LLMs) benefit from the roughly 5
billion global Internet users who have driven an acceleration in the volume of accessible data. International Data
Corporation (IDC) estimates that 163 Zettabytes of data will be created and replicated in 2024, up 80x since 2010.
This process was supercharged by massive amounts of new compute power coming online – it will become more
efficient over time.
The ramp, scope, and scale of technology competition is also different this time. Six companies with market
capitalizations above $1 trillion are aggressively attacking the AI opportunity today. Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA,
Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Meta (Facebook) are fighting for leadership and rapid adoption. Five of thesecompanies have the X-factor of founder involvement – none of them want to be unseated like the incumbents they
unseated. There’s also Elon Musk, with Tesla at ~$630B market cap and private companies including SpaceX /Starlink at ~$180B, xAI at ~$24B, Boring Company at ~$6B, and X (Twitter), playing on themes of AI and with richdatasets for LLMs. We have never seen competition on this scale before…not to mention venture capital dollars
piling in, too.
We are in a global AI arms race, and the stakes are exceptionally high. Five years ago, many would have said
China was winning in AI. Since November 2022, however, the animal spirits of capitalism have been unleashed inabundant focus and investment. Many would now put America in the lead, thanks to entrepreneurship, capital, andmost of all, rapid consumer and business adoption (see charts below, from Stanford’s 2024 AI Index Report). The
consequent volume of queries and data helps cement that leadership. Consumers and businesses are aggressively
using foundation models, and that in turn makes models more performant.
This cycle of innovation and adoption is set to emerge faster than ever before. In sum, investor speculation is
fierce, and Schumpeter’s creative destruction is alive and well. History has shown over the past ~6 decades thateach new computing cycle happens ~2x faster than the prior cycle (as measured by time to 50% USA household
adoption). What’s more, each new computing cycle is also ~5-10x bigger (as measured by devices and users overtime). In other words, strap in!

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4Recent AI Data Points from the Big Six●

Microsoft – CQ1 revenue of $62B accelerated to 17% Y/Y growth (constant currency) vs. 16% Q/Q with a sizable
contribution coming from AI services. In addition, accelerating capex spending of +79% Y/Y to $14B, is an AI
investment tell. Microsoft is aggressively aligning capital to prepare for customer demand for their cloud and AI
services, and is partnering with top talent from across the industry, including the likes of OpenAI and Inflection AI.

●

Apple – spanning >2.2B connected devices and its operating system, Apple is collecting one of the world’s mostwide-ranging datasets. At WWDC 2024, Apple announced a suite of new AI features and a partnership with OpenAI
to bring ChatGPT integration to Siri and other first-party apps.

●

NVIDIA – April quarter data center platform (data processing / training / inference) revenue of $23B accelerated to427% Y/Y vs. +409% Q/Q! NVIDIA’s platform powers several hundred million computers and over 5 million
developers, and its newest microarchitecture, Blackwell, has over 1,000x the compute power relative to a decadeago. In a related observation, data center supply growth is robust with total domestic primary market supply growing
26% Y/Y and supply under construction growing 46% Y/Y, per CBRE.

●

Alphabet (Google) – indicated in April that its new AI models and algorithms are >100x more efficient than 18
months earlier. Like Microsoft, Google supported accelerating capex (+91% Y/Y to $12B) in Q1. Google has theability to leverage foundation models to augment search experiences and attempt to maintain market share. >60% offunded GenAI startups and ~90% of GenAI unicorns use Google Cloud, the company’s computing platform(Alphabet, CQ1).

●

Amazon – invested $4B in Anthropic, arguably the most formidable foundation model challenger to OpenAI.
Anthropic uses Amazon AWS as its primary cloud provider and offers Claude (its native LLM) on Amazon’s Bedrock
managed services. Bedrock has amassed >20K customers building GenAI applications, including the likes of Pfizer,
Korea Telecom, NYSE, and Salesforce.

●

Meta (Facebook) – Meta’s latest open-source LLM, Llama 3 8B Instruct, has been downloaded an impressive ~3MM
times on Hugging Face since launch in mid-April. Recently raised its 2024E capex forecast to $35-40B implying ~3048% Y/Y growth vs. -13% in 2023 as it continues to accelerate AI infrastructure investments. Has ability to leverage
leading-edge models and features to service its 3B+ daily active users, offering new features such as chat embedded
across a family of apps and AI characters with personalities mirroring the likeness of Naomi Osaka, Dwyane Wade,and MrBeast, among other celebrities (Meta).

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AI’s Impact on Higher Education Will be Significant
1) Internet Offerings Have Materially Altered Learning / Education Over the Past QuarterCentury…AI Will Do the Same, but Faster & Bigger
Learning, in some respects considered as accessibility of answers, has been a buyer’s market since Google’s
search engine began to gain traction in 1998 and Internet access rose. AI is driving a new but familiar wave here.
As these technology-driven trends continue, just keeping pace can be a challenge.
●

World’s Leading Answer Engine Available 24x7 – Google processes ~8.5+ billion queries per day from its~4+ billion global users. The company, which did not even exist 26 years ago, has transformed learning andresearch.

●

Social Media / YouTube / Online Courses Engagement Rising – The brightest and best-informed (and theriffiest of the raff) can now share observations and teaching with an open mic and can help find the truth…orotherwise. Their impact stretches far beyond the classroom. Note that YouTube launched its first partnership forcollege course credit with Arizona State University in 2023.

●

University Online Content Engagement Rising – Leading university course recordings, notes, andassignments are easily available online. MIT’s OpenCourseWare, launched in 2001, now covers “virtually all
MIT course content” and serves over 1MM unique monthly visitors. COVID also dramatically accelerated theshift toward online / hybrid learning. Coursera (a leading provider of online courses and education certificates)
has 140MM global registered learners, +4x pre-COVID numbers. Coursera announced on its Q1 earnings callthat via partnership with the University of Texas system, 16K+ course certificates have been awarded to datefrom companies like Google, Microsoft, and IBM.

●

Learning (for Languages) Optimized in Gamified Ways – Duolingo, with its ~100MM monthly active users
and $670MM in annualized revenue in Q1, shows how technology-enabled remote real-time learning can be
captivating and effective.

●

Gatekeeping of Authority & Institutions (Distribution Channels) Eroding – The rapidly accelerating volume
and accessibility of information online, for better or worse, means that students (and others) no longer takeleading opinions on faith. Experts (real or imagined) can be anywhere. Content creators (educational andotherwise) can now manage their distribution in expansive (and sometimes lucrative) ways that circumvent
gatekeeping institutions. Trust in authority and institutions is foundational to a civil society, and earning (and reearning) that trust is a challenge and an opportunity.

●

Innovation Half-Lives Shortening – Education and skills (such as coding languages, advanced math, andwhat constitutes cutting-edge PhD research) can become obsolete in a matter of years. The growing usability
and ubiquity of software, consumer apps and AI give students access to professional-level legal expertise,coding and more…a dramatic change for society and teachers.

●

Large Language Models (LLMs) Emerging – Crunching mass quantities of data and pattern recognition atscale while processing text / video / image / voice input has become a real-time phenomenon…and not just in
the lab.

●

AI as Memory Aid / Enhancer / Replacement – For better or worse, data recall via software can enable
students to focus on utilizing information in practice…not primarily via recall from brains and books.

●

Instruction (Best- & Worst-in-Class) Available 24x7 – AI tutors are now available to anyone with Internet
access…it’s not just across the academic quad. And, in the land of artificial intelligence – well, the intelligence(just like in the real world) can be artificial. Models can provide one answer and get it way right…or way wrong.

●

Concept of Career Evolving – Increasingly, younger people seek out income streams that do not require
accredited licenses and/or degrees, with the ability to earn ad-hoc income via on-demand service work. Moredetail follows…

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7Nature of Income Opportunities Changing for Digitally Native Gen Z●

It’s difficult to measure just how much the opportunity to generate income has changed over several
decades. In addition to the ability to buy / sell / trade on the Internet, Checkr, a leading provider of backgroundchecks, estimates that tens of millions of Americans have applied for an on-demand job (including for the likes ofplatforms like Uber, DoorDash, Instacart and more…). Covid-driven constraints allowed many people (estimated at
34MM as of 5/24 per US Bureau of Labor Statistics) to adjust to all or part-time remote work. And social media
platforms have allowed for the development of online creators / influencers.

●

The social media creator economy, NCAA policies related to Name, Image & Likeness (NIL), and the transfer
portal have changed the ways some young people think about financial opportunities. Stanford economist
Paul Saffo posits that the creator economy began in 1997 with niche artist communities on the Internet, but nodistribution / monetization. Things changed with the explosive rise of advertising-based social media platforms likeYouTube, Meta (Facebook), X (Twitter), Instagram and TikTok, each of which support more than 500MM users.

●

Estimates on the number of global digital content creators that monetize their efforts range from 20MM to50MM. USA influencer marketing revenue reached over $6B in 2023 (Goldman Sachs)…anyway you cut it, it’s a big
and growing number. Goldman Sachs estimated 50MM global content creators in 2023, of which ~2MM (~4%) makemore than $100K per year, primarily via direct branding deals, share of ad revenue with host platforms, subscriptions,
donations, and other forms of direct payment (Goldman Sachs, 2023). 187-year-old John Deere made headlines
recently when it debuted a celebrity-driven social media campaign and launched a contest to recruit a Chief Tractor
Officer focused on social media content. Net, younger people can clearly make real money, and increasingly want it.
Morning Consult found in a 9/23 survey of 1,000 Gen Z’ers that 57% would become influencers if they could.

●

As with the creator economy, for better / worse, monetizing Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) in college
sports is changing the game for a small number of athletes. In late 2018, the NCAA created a transfer portal todigitize workflows so athletes could easily switch schools. In mid-2021, the NCAA allowed college athletes to build
their own intangible assets and brands in its new policy. New money flows, chaos, disruption, and short-termism
followed. Some college athletes have become income-generating brand ambassadors and / or transferred to otherschools for more money and playing time. Athletic programs have been forced to sharpen their pencils in new ways.

●

It’s important for universities to understand these media and monetization shifts both for teenagers andtwenty-somethings, and for the best teachers whose skills can be amplified (and monetized) off campus.
What happens in media and sports may well roll into other disciplines. For better / worse, connectivity, transparency,
fame, money, and short-termism can be tough competitors.

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82) Higher Education in America…Macro Tradeoffs Increasing
While there are many metrics to review, a few stand out…
●

High School Student vs. Rest of World Rankings Weak to Mixed – the output of American high school
education, a key input to universities, has been weak to mixed. OECD and other international comparisonsshow that American high school student rankings have stayed low relative to comparable cohorts in math (from#36 in 2012 to #34 in 2022). While science (from #28 to #16) and reading (from #24 to #9) improved over thesame period, they remain well below the world’s gold standard (USA Department of Education).

●

Education Cost Post-High School Rising – over the last forty years, the real costs of tertiary education havevastly increased. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, education costs are up 3.4x vs. the Consumer
Price Index since 1980.

●

Student Debt Loads Worryingly High – behind growing concerns about education’s return on investment(ROI) is the rise in aggregate USA student loan debt, which hit $1.7T in 2023. That amounts to ~$40K per
graduate (Education Data Initiative). Though the rate of growth has decreased in the last 4-5 years, as a shareof GDP and personal income, the student debt burden remains much higher than in the past. The seemingly
unchecked rise in student debt (now tied with auto loans as the highest household debt burden) is part of a
disturbing trend in our country.

●

Fiscal Irresponsibility Could Pressure University Funding – 40%+ of US public university funding comesfrom state or local government sources. Meanwhile, America’s debt load is rising to unprecedented levels, at~100% net debt to GDP and rising rapidly…and rapidly rising interest rates mean the bill is going to come due.
Geez, help, the math needs to work here… USA Inc: A Basic Summary of America’s Financial Statementswww.bondcap.com

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PISA High School Student Assessment – Average Score Ranking By Country, 2000-2022
Mathematics

1

Science

Reading

2000

2012

2022

2000

2012

2022

2000

2012

2022

Japan

China
(Mainland)

Singapore

South Korea

China(Mainland)

Singapore

Finland

China(Mainland)

Singapore

2

South Korea

Singapore

China (Macau)

Japan

China (HK)Japan

CanadaChina (HK)

Ireland3

New Zealand

China (HK)TaiwanFinlandSingapore

China (Macau)

New ZealandSingapore

Japan

4

Finland

TaiwanChina (HK)

UK

Japan

TaiwanAustralia

Japan

South Korea

5Australia

South Korea

Japan

CanadaFinland

South Korea

Ireland

South Korea

Taiwan6

CanadaChina (Macau)

South Korea

New ZealandEstonia

EstoniaSouth Korea

Finland

Estonia7

SwitzerlandJapan

Estonia

Australia

South Korea

China (HK)UK

Ireland

China (Macau)

8

UK

Liechtenstein

Switzerland

Austria

VietnamCanadaJapan

CanadaCanada9

Belgium

Switzerland

CanadaIreland

PolandFinlandSwedenTaiwanUSA

10FranceNetherlands

Netherlands

SwedenCanadaAustralia

Austria

PolandNew Zealand

11

Austria

Estonia

IrelandCzech Republic

Liechtenstein

New Zealand

Belgium

Estonia

China (HK)12

Denmark

Finland

Belgium

FranceGermany

Ireland

Iceland

Liechtenstein

Australia

13

Iceland

CanadaDenmark

NorwayTaiwanSwitzerland

NorwayNew ZealandUK

14

Liechtenstein

PolandUK

USA

Netherlands

Slovenia

FranceAustralia

Finland15

SwedenBelgium

PolandHungary

Ireland

UK

USA

Netherlands

Denmark

16

IrelandGermany

Austria

Iceland

Australia

USA

Denmark

Switzerland

Poland17

NorwayVietnam

Australia

Belgium

China (Macau)

PolandSwitzerland

China (Macau)

Czech Republic

18

Czech Republic

Austria

Czech Republic

Switzerland

New ZealandCzech Republic

Spain

Belgium

Sweden19

USA

Australia

Slovenia

Spain

Switzerland

LatviaCzech Republic

Vietnam

Switzerland

20

Germany

IrelandFinlandGermany

Slovenia

Denmark

Italy

Germany

Italy

21

Hungary

Slovenia

LatviaPolandUK

Sweden

LiechtensteinFranceAustria

22

RussiaDenmark

SwedenDenmark

Czech Republic

Germany

Germany

NorwayGermany23

Spain

New Zealand

New Zealand

Italy

Austria

Austria

HungaryUK

Belgium

24

PolandCzech Republic

Lithuania

Liechtenstein

Belgium

Belgium

PolandUSA

Portugal

25

LatviaFranceGermany

GreeceLatviaNetherlands

GreeceDenmark

Norway

26

Italy

UK

FranceRussiaFranceFrancePortugal

Czech Republic

Croatia

27

Portugal

IcelandSpain

LatviaDenmark

Hungary

RussiaItaly

Latvia28

GreeceLatviaHungary

Portugal

USA

Spain

LatviaAustria

Spain

29

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

Portugal

Luxembourg

Spain

Lithuania

Luxembourg

LatviaFrance30

MexicoNorwayItaly

MexicoLithuania

PortugalMexicoHungary

Israel31

BrazilPortugal

VietnamBrazil

NorwayCroatia

BrazilSpain

Hungary

32

–

Italy

Norway–Hungary

Norway–Luxembourg

Lithuania

33

–

Spain

Malta

–

Italy

Italy

–

PortugalSlovenia

34–

RussiaUSA–

Croatia

Turkey–IsraelVietnam35–

Slovakia

Slovakia–

Luxembourg

Vietnam–Croatia

Netherlands

36

–

USA

Croatia–

Portugal

Malta–

SwedenTurkey37–

Lithuania

Iceland–

RussiaIsrael

–Iceland

Chile

38

–

SwedenIsrael–SwedenSlovakia–

Slovenia

Slovakia

39–

Hungary

Turkey–IcelandUkraine–Lithuania

Malta

40

–

Croatia

Brunei–

Slovakia

Serbia–GreeceSerbiaSource: Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), National Center for Education Statistics, US Department of Education
Note: PISA Assessment treats different education systems in China (e.g. Mainland, Macau, Hong Kong) as separate entities for ranking purposes. 2000 assessment did not include nonOECD countries. Some year’s surveys do not include certain countries due to lack of responses (for example, the last year China mainland data was included was 2018).

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103) Technology-Driven Changes May Shift Winners & Losers in Higher Education…
Securing Lanes of Excellence Will be Key
Just as the Internet disrupted media and other industries over the past three decades, AI will have consequences
for even the biggest and best educational institutions…and many will seize the opportunity. When major technology
changes kick in, it’s inevitable that the need for competitive advantage rises and that market shares rise or fall.
Universities have not traditionally thought of their students and alumni as customers – we believe that the evolutionof learning, coupled with AI, may drive a shift towards the assessment of product offerings.
The economics of many universities are increasingly under pressure. ROI means different things to different
people – here, we focus on the rising cost of university education relative to many future job and income
opportunities. Clayton Christensen’s prediction in 2011 that some universities could close in the coming years as
the economics ceased to make sense was wrong on timing and scale, but AI may well prove the inflection point thatmakes his conclusions directionally on the mark. With costs to run universities already rising at a rapid pace,closings are already happening among the long tail of universities. Thirty American colleges folded in the first 10
months of 2023, 48 closed in 2022, per State Higher Education Executive Officers Association, and ~10% of
universities are at risk financially per E&Y Research. There are a host of reasons…
University costs are rising while the number of potential students declines. The average cost of four years ofAmerican university is $109K (public) / $223K (private) (Education Data Initiative). That compares with an averageannual salary of $60K for students recently post-graduation (New York Fed). That starting imbalance means that the
average borrower takes twenty years to repay student loan debt (Education Data Initiative).
What’s more, the US addressable market for universities actually declined in the last census: children under 18 fell
1.4% to 73MM in 2020, compared with 74MM in the 2010 census. In the latter part of the century, the US population
may decline outright. It’s hard to fight basic demographic math.
Today’s innovation-oriented employers are excited about education programs that tie to strong business
ROI and increasingly favor skills-based hiring, per Deloitte. As employers change their expectations forgraduates’ skills, at least some universities will shift accordingly. Students are following suit – enrollments in 2-yearcolleges with high vocational focus rose 16% in 2023 vs. total undergraduate enrollments, which grew 1% (National
Student Clearinghouse). While some of this growth represents a rebound from COVID’s impact on enrollments, theshift in relative enrollment growth may well be ongoing. In addition, USA apprenticeship programs total nearly 600K
as of 2023, with the UK over 600K as of 2022 (per World Economic Forum), signifying broad-based interest in
learning for career purposes.
As AI models improve & become better Assistants, labor demand will be affected, potentially further
changing how students think about educational ROI. Morgan Stanley’s USA Software and Internet Researchteams have created an AI Index which “seeks to evaluate the Generative AI opportunity in software by analyzing theextent to which different labor activities are exposed to potential automation.” Among these, getting / organizing /processing / interpreting information and thinking creatively are among the top work activities impacted by GenAI.
The findings are instructive…see chart that follows.

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11In a time of rapid technological change led by American companies, American universities must determine
how best to optimize for the future. Many institutions have work to do to meet these changes in demand, per the
Burning Glass Institute. As the AI challenge looms, they will need thoughtful plans that balance their rich traditions
and research history with the needs of a rapidly evolving marketplace supercharged by innovation. Keeping an eye
on the output and trends in various AI skunkworks, such as the team at AI Acceleration at Arizona State, may help
universities determine the products and software tools that could transform the educational experience.
Market / domain leadership matters more than ever. A key differentiator for universities has been the creationand duration of best-in-class and storied individual programs. These programs attract top young talent because
they’ve cultivated cultures of excellence in specific areas, and participants in the programs have benefitted fromtheir experience and association. Think Carnegie Mellon / MIT / Stanford in Computer Science; Harvard / Johns
Hopkins / Penn in Medicine; and West Point / Naval Academy / Air Force Academy in Defense & Leadership.
Outsized success has a simple formula that is extremely difficult to accomplish, let alone sustain over time.
At its essence, greatness begets greatness in the right setting, with the right people (and leadership), with the rightresources at the right time and focus, focus, focus. Universities need to find, create, and sustain their differentiators– their best-in-class programs and advantages that attract students – or risk losing market share in an increasingly
transparent and AI-enabled world that has already received a COVID-related remote work booster. The reality isthat younger students (and lifelong learners) are getting smarter about their learning options, costs, and returns.
They will be aggressive voters with their time and money.

4) AI May Make This the Best Time Ever to be a Self-Motivated Student…
Both a Challenge & an Opportunity for Teachers & Universities to Match
AI can help students (of all types) improve learning. Education in many cases has flipped from rote, call-andresponse, memory-based systems to a paradigm of search / discover / implement. This historically benefited themost self-starting and entrepreneurial learners. In the age of AI, however, with the advent of natural language query
formats, all students can become expert searchers (and therefore learners). Improvements in models, breadth, anddata quality will help the best answers and solutions rise to the top. The onus is on schools to help students makethe best use of these technology breakthroughs.
>75% of American K-12 teachers are optimistic about the potential for AI in their craft (although over 90%
feel unsure of where to start, indicating that we’re still in early innings here), per Canva's 2023 survey. The
promise of AI is to enable a new art of teaching that enhances students’ ability to think and reason while letting AI
do more of the processing – real “human in the loop” learning. Luis von Ahn, Duolingo Founder / CEO, notes that“AI can help one learn anything but so can books which have been around for >1,000 years. The riddle is how towww.bondcap.com

12improve the learning process so more people do it…and learn more efficiently. At Duolingo, we do it with
gamification. Universities can have the advantage of having people gathered together in person, their opportunity is
to figure out ways to optimize in-person learning with the best computers can serve up.”
The process for many types of teaching will change. The biggest change is that students will have more
answers at their fingertips faster – some will be right and some will be wrong. For teachers, optimizing to acceleratelearning with that evolving foundation – including students who don’t want to (or can’t) attend a one-off lecture inperson – will be a new art form. On the research side, technical resource availability, such as GPU access, will likely
be key to differentiation / leadership.
In the basics of teaching – from drafting lesson plans to reviewing assignments and managing classroom
communications – teachers already have a full plate. Balancing content development with other responsibilities
including classroom management and student instruction is even more challenging. As technology evolves andbecomes more widely available, teachers should be able to save time and increase productivity, focusing more on
their core craft by leveraging AI for more time-intensive tasks. Some of the many ways AI can help teachers savetime and increase productivity follow:
Content●

Personalized Learning Plans – analyzing student performance and creating customized learning paths basedon knowledge gaps and individual learning styles.

●

Course Development / Learning Immersion – including, for example, generative models for imagery, text,
and video, translating into supplemental educational material, assignments, and practice questions. Imagine
discussing Newton’s 3rd Law with Newton himself…or learning biology in a VR-based lab like Arizona State
University’s.

●

Social Interaction / Communications – learning in conjunction with new AI tools (such as GPT-4o, in a
spoken-word form factor) can equip students with better preparation tools for higher education and workforce
contexts that rely heavily on spoken / presented communication.

Delivery●

Copilots Available to Both Students & Teachers 24x7, Real-Time – Providing personalized attention in
education at scale can give teachers and students alike the equivalent of multiple people / tutors working forthem in real time via software. Instead of discrete intervals of course-correcting feedback, AI can be an alwayson real-time feedback generator that caters more to individual student development.

●

Teachers as Coaches & Guides – For many, classrooms can be challenging or counterproductive
environments owing to introversion, lack of confidence, or learning differently than others. In addition, many
students have motivation challenges. Tomorrow’s teachers may serve as cheerleader / coach as well as tutor,
making the classroom more welcoming.

●

Optimizing Teaching Approaches – Open-ended thinkers may enjoy dialogue in the Socratic method:
Khanmigo (Khan Academy’s AI guide) asks great questions rather than giving easy answers. Moreover,foundation models may be geared to student learning styles, such as automatic text-to-speech for dyslexic
students.

Administration●

Grading, Classroom Management, & Administrative Support – using software assistants to support
homework review, scheduling, attendance tracking, and intervention alerts for students falling behind.

●

Combating Teacher & Student Burnout – minimizing stale lessons, reducing incremental / unpaid teacher
prep work, and enhancing workplace creativity.

Beyond learning and teaching augmentations, AI will be fuel for student creativity and innovation. AI may
reduce or replace direct human involvement in certain disciplines like coding, computation and design, but by
making these technical skills more of an open utility and toolset, AI can liberate human intelligence to focus more on
ingenuity – the root force behind building and producing new things and ideas.

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135) It’s a Crucial Time for Universities Both to Reaffirm American Values & to Revitalize
Their Own Missions
At its best, America represents opportunity for newcomers. The USA remains the country more people want toimmigrate to than any other place on the planet. It is still the greatest self-governing community around at scale.
What do many people see who want to move to America where they believe the grass is greener on the other side?
A key part of what they see and aspire to join is based on the values of America’s founding fathers – life, liberty, andthe pursuit of happiness…democracy, equality, freedom, and yes, capitalism. For many people, the American
university experience is the embodiment of those ideals.
We’re in a period of rising conflicts, both intramural and extramural, for universities – which means theymust demonstrate anew the many advantages and opportunities they can offer students and employees. It’strue, the latest trends in university protests and donor resistance (at some schools) suggest that someconstituencies on campus find universities wanting. Likewise, the negative effects of too much social media andmobile phone usage among young adults imply something needs to change (Jonathan Haidt, 2024). There areserious voids to be filled for serious students.
To maintain academic relevance and market share, many universities require a mindset change. The key foruniversities today, we believe, will be creating education-as-a-service and generating ROI for student-customers
while building best-in-class programs with differentiated teachers in a win-win environment. Yesterday’s signaling
credential may not make sense in a more meritocratic, skills-based world. Different students have different aims /desires – Amherst, Berkeley, Boston College, Florida, Georgia Tech, Michigan, Notre Dame, Pomona, Princeton,
Rice, Spelman, Stanford, Texas, Vanderbilt, West Point, and on and on have different student constituencies andgoals – so winning may mean different things. But in each case, universities must determine their competitive
advantages, create relevant best-in-class programs and environments, and find ways to gain share in an
increasingly competitive environment. A simple / first-pass check list follows…
●

Grounding in Reality / Liberal Arts / Civics Are you preparing students for the real world while developing
their competitive advantage based on understanding and reasoning? Are you doing all you can so yourgraduates can quickly add value in the workplace?

●Affinity for Innovation & Adaptation – Are you embracing new methods / technologies / ways of thinking to
improve teaching and learning? Do you have an orientation to educational durability and adaptability (as with
Georgia Tech’s newly formed Division of Lifetime Learning?)●

Product Velocity and Depth of Science & Research – Can you design an organizational structure thatincorporates frequent iteration and relentless data-driven self-improvement? Do you have compute / tooling /technical resourcing access? Have you shortened your cycles and ship time on new products / ways ofthinking?

●

Culture / Quality of Life – Have you created an environment and physical plant where students can develop
and excel with the help of peers and mentors to learn from, trust, and admire in an in-person, collaborativeenvironment? Is your social environment optimized to build lifelong relationships, underpinned by deep (andperhaps unexpected) intellectual and personal common interests? Is it a place where people really want to bewith one another? Reality is…social / interpersonal life is foundational.

●

Teacher Quality / Availability – Are your students getting ROI on their core expenditure – paying teachers to
help them learn skills? Do your students feel their teachers are their coaches on a winning team? Do teachersand students have one another’s backs?

●Intellectual Diversity / Independent Thinking – Are your students expanding their perspectives in positive
ways?

●

Positioning For Future Research Leadership – Are you equipped with the knowledge / tools / personnel /unique datasets to lead in AI / other cutting-edge research? Do you have a well-honed interdisciplinary /collaborative approach across campus?

●

Affordability / Resources / Management – Does the economic wiring diagram (current student money out vs.
future graduate money in) make sense? Is the institution well-run and well-endowed? Do you orient towards
serving your student-customers’ needs and not the other way around?

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Linkages with Local / Regional / Global Businesses – Are you collaborating with industry to provide students
valuable real-world experience and understand what needs they are prioritizing over the short and long terms?

●

Long-Term Orientation – Like great companies, are you thinking about how to supplement or even cannibalize
your own educational experience / delivery to serve students / other constituents best over the long term? Are
you optimized not just for learning, but learning how to learn?

A related aside – AI compute power costs billions at scale and is scarce...GPUs enable unprecedented
progress in STEM research and development, yet remain out-of-reach-expensive for students (and universities).
Leading research universities trail leading corporations in GPU count by orders of magnitude – let alone theuniversities of the developing world that will serve the preponderance of young people in the future… Stanford’s
2024 AI Index Report also underscores the massive lead that enterprise currently holds over academia in modelownership / development. To get AI processing power for students, universities will need to find creative ways topartner with industry (see, for example, the May 2024 release of ChatGPT Edu by OpenAI, providing access to
OpenAI’s most recent models and unique university-oriented customizations). Otherwise, the best-and-brightest
emerging young engineers may consider skipping university to go straight to industry, and the best teachers may
take the same route.

In Sum, If We Can Meet the Moment…
We Should be Bullish on Education in America
We are living in an amazingly exciting time for technological innovation, and it can’t be stopped. No one can predict
exactly how it will all play out, but even the most aggressive of change agents out there are stunned at the current
pace of change. History shows that technological improvements lead to productivity gains which lead to
improvements in quality-of-life for more citizens (IEEE SA, 2023).
We are fortunate that America is leading the world here and has a foundational focus on deterrence in an
increasingly hostile world. Our universities and regulators have a responsibility to rapidly and deeply understand theglobal stakes that AI presents for freedom, democratic values, good and evil…and take strong stands. AI creates
once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for evolution, creativity and leadership (akin to the post-WWII Space Race). As
these things are, it’s riddled with risks. Now, we need to focus, galvanize attention and minimize our mistakes.
Ultimately, bringing AI to learning and teaching requires what Sal Khan calls “educated bravery.” While technologies
developing in real-time are always unpredictable, their thoughtful use may well prove exponentially beneficial tostudents and teachers alike. We should not be paranoid and restrictive about utilizing these technologies, butthoughtfully curious.
Special thanks to Alexander Krey and BOND partners and colleagues who helped prepare this report.
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