A Milestone Towards a Low Carbon Society:
Germany’s 40% Reduction Target by 2020
Guido Knoche
Climate Protection Unit; Federal Environment Agency
Wörlitzer Platz 1; D-06844 Dessau (Germany);
guido.knoche@uba.de

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Outline

1. Impacts & Targets
2. Achieved so far
3. Targets by 2020
4. 2020 and beyond

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Key questions
Most sensitive/vulnerable sectors intransition to LCS?
Which kind of inertia hinder transition?
Opportunities for sectors and helpfulpolicy measures?

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Impacts & Targets

EU 2°C target

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Schellnhuber after Stern, 2007

2007

Impacts & Targets

2° degree limit
Peak global GHG emissions around 2020, followed
by a 50%-reduction by 2050 (compared to 1990)
EU Council Conclusion March 2007:
Reduction by 30% until 2020;
Supported by German -40% target
ICs to reduce GHG up to 80% comp. to 1990 levels
Sustainable development & economic growth in DCs
3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Achieved so far

Emissions in Mt CO2eq

1.200-18%-21%

2005

2010

-29%

1.000
800
600

BAU THG-Emissions
target
Kyoto

400

BAU

200

40%-Target
01990

1995

2000

2015

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 20082020

Targets by 2020

Energy related CO2-emissions
1000
900

87

-16 %

800

129

53
113

-40 %

164

4374

Mio. t CO2700
600
500

162
154

103

400
300
200

134
73

415

362

100

services, tradeand commerce
residential
transportother industries
energy industries

247

01990

2005

UBA Scenario2020

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

2020 and beyond

Effective measures for emission reductions are athand, technically feasible & economically sustainable.
“Big 3” essential by 2020:• Energy efficiency• Energy savings• Renewable energies
GHG reduction of 80% by 2050
• technically & economically viable• Two element strategy:- Halving of the energy consumption- 50% share of renewable energies
3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Potential of REN and EEff by 2050
1614121086420nuclear

lignitehard coalmin. oilgas

renewables

efficiency increase

after WBGU 2003

Primary energy demand (1000 PJ/a)

2020 and beyond

2000

CO2eq in Mt 835

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

717

588

451

309

195

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Discussion
Most sensitive/vulnerable sectors in transition to LCS?
Ö national/global scale - (socio-)econ. &environmental; priorities, but which criteria??
Which kind of inertia hinder transition?
Ö manyfold „lock-in-effects“ - infrastructure; politicalwill; …
Opportunities for sectors and helpful policy measures?
Ö Wide varity, e.g. econ. diversification - energy
sector; …; incentives, e.g. feed-in-tariff-systems; …
3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Lead by example!
A model of ecological and handicapped-accessible construction!

LINK
3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

Thank you for your attention!

further infomation:www.umweltbundesamt.de/index-e.htm
Flyer: www.umweltbundesamt.de/uba-info-e/besucher/Flyer-UBA_english.pdf

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

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Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation• Independence from energy imports• no loss of comfort!
Ö all mitigiation with existing technologies!
• Early action
Ö good position for exporting LC-Technologies• No nuclear energy:– no reactor accidents– no nuclear waste– no proliferation of nuclear weapons
3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008

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Integrated Climate & Energy Programme

3rd Low Carbon Society Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, 13th-15th February 2008