ポストコロナの世界と工業化の将来―「UNIDO工業開発報告書（IDR）2022」をふまえて
第9回「これからの途上国の産業開発を考える」勉強会
原口信也
Chief, Research and Industrial Policy Advice Division
United Nations Industrial Development Organization
2022年3月25日

Introduction▪ UNIDO▪ Research and Industrial Policy Advice Division▪ Industrial Development Report2The Industrial Development
Report 2022

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The Industrial Development
Report 2022
Five questions guide the narrative of thereport:
1. Why industrialization is important in a crisis
like COVID-19?
2. Who were the most affected by the crisis?
3. Why did some countries do better?
4. What can we expect for the future?
5. How can we build a better future?

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Why industrialization isimportant in a crisis like
COVID-19?

The COVID-19 crisis had profound socio-economic
impacts at the global level…
▪ During 2020 world GDP fell by 3.3%, thedeepest global recession in 70 years.
▪ The sudden stop in economic activity had adirect impact on employment, with 255 million
jobs lost only in 2020
▪ More dramatically: 97 million more people are
estimated to live in poverty due to thepandemic▪ Latest IMF estimates indicate that world GDP isstill 4.2% below the level projected for 2021

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… but not all regions were affected equally▪ The projected impact on economic
activity–proxied by the output loss
by 2021—is highly heterogeneous
across economy groups▪ On average: Developing andEmerging Industrial Economies(DEIEs) were more impacted thanIndustrialized Economies (IEs)▪ Within DEIEs: the most impacted areSmall Islands Development States(SIDS) and India; the less impacted
are South & Central Asia (exc. India)
and China.

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Countries with stronger industrial sectors did better

Negative relation
also noticeable inDEIEs
Negative relation:
larger manufacturingsector associated withsmaller output losses

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Why? Because manufacturing support key
dimensions of resilience▪ Manufacturing provides goods that are critical
for the sustenance of life“the ability of a system exposed to hazards
to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to,transform and recover from the effects of ahazard in a timely and efficient manner”(UNDRR 2020)▪ Manufacturing provides inputs to criticalnational infrastructure▪ Manufacturing provides strategically important products and assets incombatting certain types of emergencies▪ A shortage of COVID-19-critical items hindered countries’ ability to respond tothe crisis▪ Historically, manufacturing has been the engine of growth because of its
contribution to productivity, trade, jobs and innovation.

▪ Manufacturing industries have offered pockets of resilience supporting recovery
from COVID-199

Manufacturing is also key driver of sustainable
development

10▪ Industrial production
drives SDG9 and throughthat channel affects all
the other SDGs, directly
but also indirectly
through economicgrowth▪ The pandemic impacts
on the industrial sector
also have implications
for the achievement ofbroad-based sustainable
development

Who were the most affected bythe crisis?

Countries with larger domestic markets did better

Negative relation
also noticeable inDEIEs

Negative relation: larger
domestic markets associatedwith smaller output losses

12Industry dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic

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IDR22 identifies four types ofindustrial dynamics based on theevolution of industries’ world IIP
during the crisis:a. Small initial impact and fast
recovery (case of pharma)b. Small initial impact and slow
recovery (case of food)

Robustindustriesc. Large initial impact but fast
recovery (case of electronics)
d. Large initial impact and slow
recovery (case of apparel)

Vulnerableindustries

SMEs outside manufacturing and in vulnerable
industries suffered the most14▪ Data collected in 4,000
firm in 26 DEIEs inAfrica, Asia and LAC▪ In general, firms outside
manufacturing and invulnerable industries
were more likely toclosed.
▪ This is particularly
noticeable in the case ofSMEs▪ Large firms suffered
relatively less

Women workers were more impacted than men▪ Data collected in 4,000 firm in 26 DEIEs
in Africa, Asia and LAC▪ The share of laid-off workers since thestart of the pandemic is higher among
women than men▪ Temporary workers were more affected
than permanent ones. Within them,
women show the largest declines

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Within the industrial sector, the impacts were also
highly heterogeneous across countries, industries,firms and workers
Less impacted (resilient)More impacted (vulnerable)

Countries• Countries with strong manufacturing sectors andstrong industrial capabilities• Countries with large domestic markets• Countries more reliant on service sectors• Countries more reliant on foreign markets• Countries with weak industrial capabilities

Industries• Health-related industries• Information technology-related industries• Industries producing essential goods (i.e., food, paper)• Labour-intensive industries, producing non-essential
goods

Firms

• Large firms• Digitally advanced firms• Firms with high production capabilities• Small and Medium Enterprises and informal firms• Digitally backward firms• Firms integrated into global value chains (GVCs)• Firms with low production capabilities• Male, formal workers• Female workers• Youth workers• Temporary and informal workers

Workers16

Why did some countries dobetter?

IDR2022 explores different factors that amplified
or reduced the crisis impact
From the many factors
examined, two stand out:
▪ The level of industrial
capabilities of countries;and▪ The level of digitalizationof manufacturing firms
IDR shows that bothelements have been key indriving resilience during thepandemic18

Countries with stronger industrial capabilities weremore resilient to the economic impact

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Proxied by UNIDO’sCompetitiveness Industrial
Performance (CIP) index▪ Sample of 140countries▪ Factors below thezero are associatedwith lower impact▪ The level ofcountries industrial
capabilities are themost importantfactor softening theimpact of the crisis

Digitally advanced manufacturing firms were more
resilient than the rest during the COVID-19
pandemic20▪ 4,000 firm in 26
DEIEs in Africa,
Asia and Latin
America

Firms using the latest vintages ofdigital technologies in production▪ In all three
dimensions ofimpact examined,
digitally advanced
firms suffered
lower impacts
than the rest

Digitally advanced manufacturing firms were more
prone to introduce transformational changes in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic

21▪ 4,000 firm in 26
DEIEs in Africa,
Asia and Latin
America
Firms using thelatest vintages ofdigital technologies
in production▪ In all five changes
explored, theshare of digitallyadvanced firms
introducingchanges is larger
than the share of
the rest

Supporting polices played a key role in buffering
impacts—but implementation also faced difficulties

22▪ Data collected byUNIDO in 44 developing
economies in Africa,
Asia and Latin America▪ Main problem was lackof budgetary resources
across the three regions▪ But this problem tended
to be less severe in Asia
▪ Other recurrent
problems included thenovelty of the situationand difficulties working
onlineWhat can we expect for thefuture?

The long-term impact of COVID-19 depends on its
interplay with on-going megatrends likely to shape
the future of industrialization
IDR 2022 identifies three important trends:• Digitalisation and automation of industrial production, as technological innovation in these fields,
affects essentially all spheres of business development and deeply changes the competitive
advantages of firms and nations;• Global economic power shifts, especially the emergence of Asia as a dominant hub of the world
industrial production, and China’s structural transformation towards a knowledge-driven high-income
economy, as these developments imply a major restructuring of trade flows and global value chains;• The greening of industrial production, as the need to reduce environmental footprints, andparticularly to decarbonise economies, calls for radically different business models and systemictransformations with far-reaching effects on the positioning of DEIEs in the world economy.

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These trends were operating already 10-20 years
before COVID-19
Three global indicators
illustrate these trends:• Robot density
triplicated in the last
10 years;• Asia-Pacific DEIEs
gained 30 pp inworld manufacturing
value added (MVA)• Emissions per MVA
dropped 15 pp inthe last 10 years

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COVID-19 seems to have accelerated the trend
towards digitalization

26▪ UNIDO survey on
4,000 firms
around the world▪ A large number offirms startedactivity online orautomation due toCOVID-19▪ In most cases, thechange came tostay (68-95%)

A shift of global suppliers towards Asia
▪ Data from FactSet on the suppliers forthe largest 750 world manufacturing
public companies▪ The share of suppliers from Asia steadily
growing in the last years: from 18% in2013 to 42% in 2019. An increase of 24
percentage points▪ This increase is equally distributed
between Asian IEs (12 points) and AsianDEIEs (also 12 points)

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Shift towards Asian suppliers visible across allmanufacturing GVCs

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▪ FactSet data on
G750 publiccompanies▪ The increase in
Asian suppliers isvisible across allindustries▪ But the shift has
been particularly
intense in fourindustries

The pandemic seems to have accelerated this trend,in all industries but textiles and apparel29▪ FactSet data on
G750 publiccompanies▪ Between 2019 and2020 Asian
suppliers
participation
increased by 2.4 pp▪ This is visible
across all industries
but textiles &apparelCOVID-19 might have also accelerated shifts inglobal production towards Asia

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▪ UNIDO survey on
4,000 firms
around the world▪ Expected
investmentdecisions▪ Firms in Asia are
more likely toincrease
investments postpandemic▪ These differences
will affect thespeed of recovery

There are some signs that COVID-19 might also
trigger new green practices▪ UNIDO survey on 4,000 firms around theworld▪ Most firms surveyed (from 78 to 83percent) expect that the pandemic will
trigger to a great or moderate extent theadoption of new environmentallyfriendly practices.
▪ This is quite consistent across regions

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How can we build a betterfuture?

Efforts should be coordinated at the local andglobal levels to achieve a recovery that enables
a safer development path
Aligning industrial policies with the building back better narrative means putting them to work for theachievement of the SDGs, taking into account the megatrends which are likely to shape the future ofindustrialization and the tangible risk of global disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic.
These policies should promote a recovery that is:• Green;• Inclusive; and• Resilient
And can only be achieved with the support of the international community33

Industrial policies to promote a green, inclusive andresilient recovery

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Green industrial policy should simultaneously target demand and supply:
Consumers: shift consumer behaviour through demand-side instruments
 Firms: provide incentives to improve firms’ resource and energy efficiency and promote green innovation
Inclusive industrial policy should support the actors which have been more vulnerable during the pandemic:
SMEs: Facilitate the uptake of new technologies (especially ADPTs) and promote market diversification
 Female, youth and informal workers: Enhance safety net provision and support employabilityIndustrial policy should also strengthen the resilience of countries against future risks:
Prevention: build awareness and foster knowledge creation and exchange about new and existing risks
 Preparedness: support firm’s integration of industry vulnerability data, monitoring and evaluation
mechanisms
Building back better: SDG-friendly industrial
policies post-pandemic

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How can we build a better future?

A call for action to the international community to support anInclusive, Sustainable and Resilient Industrial Recovery

36Thanks for yourattention
The report is now available at:www.unido.org/idr2022