FY2016

Report on Local Climate Change
Adaptation in Japan
Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Preface:Publication of the FY2016
ReportUniversity
on Local Climate Adaptation in Japan
Center for Regional
Research,
Hosei

This English edition was prepared with cooperation from e's Inc.

1

Preface: Publication of the FY2016 Report on Local Climate
Adaptation in Japan
This publication follows the FY2015 Japanese edition of the Report on Local Climate Adaptation in
Japan. I would like to offer a few opening comments as Program Director of the Social Implementation
Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT).
Society in general is well aware of the need for adaptation to climate change. This awareness is on
the rise not only among local governments, but also in the business world and among actors in many
sectors, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Costs and other challenges present obstacles
for timely efforts to make society more resilient through far-reaching efforts for adaptation to climatechange. Meanwhile, the need for mitigation of climate change is broadly known and understood,
and this awareness on the frontlines of education and other areas is leading to practical actions by
individuals. When individuals are conscious of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting fromtheir day-to-day activities, they are more likely to contribute to mitigation efforts.
In industry as well, steady progress is being made in GHG emission reduction efforts, including theactions of individual companies. Nevertheless, a broad reduction in GHG emissions is not a simple task
for people of the world. Thus, to respond to the climate change we are facing, it is crucial to promote
both mitigation and adaptation.
However, with the exception of certain sectors, there is lack of progress in preparing concrete actions
and plans for climate adaptation initiatives by local governments and companies. Environmental
personnel of local governments sometimes tell me that with proper explanations they can get local
residents to understand the need for climate mitigation. But when it comes to adaptation, it canbe a daunting task to get not only the residents but even local government colleagues to correctly
understand the situation.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

In response to this situation, SI-CAT was launched in December 2015. Its aims are to expand andpromote scientific knowledge as well as research and development for detailed and precise climatechange projections, and also, from the perspective of significantly advancing climate adaptation, to
promote the mainstreaming of climate change projection technologies in our society, particularly
at the regional and local government level. Key concepts here are the development of policies andmeasures involving a variety of stakeholders, including government, business, and citizens.
With the second year of this program ending and the third approaching, this Report on Local Climate
Adaptation in Japan was prepared to be widely used by local government staff and residents aswell as businesses. It gives a current overview of the state of implementation of climate adaptation
initiatives in Japan and presents new regional policy issues and important adaptation initiatives withthe aim of identifying challenges and directions to be tackled going forward. I hope that it will be auseful reference for regional policy makers, for the academics and experts who support them, and for
local communities.

Fujio Kimura, Program Director,
Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology(SI-CAT)

2

The Paris Agreement, adopted at the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2015, has a shared international long term
goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels" and sets the direction toward net zero anthropogenic GHG emissions in the second half ofthe twenty-first century. Regarding "adaptation," the Agreement also calls for "enhancing adaptive
capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change" and calls for Parties
to "engage in the process to formulate and implement national adaptation plans."
The Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT) under Japan’s
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) was launched in December
2015 and is entering its third year. Compared to conventional research projects, this Program
promotes technology development for more precise and near-future climate change projections,and prioritizes the spread and expansion of concrete adaptation measures for "society adapting toclimate change." As global warming continues, the ways in which climate change is manifested will
differ significantly depending on the region. Even with the same degree of climate change, there will
be regional differences in the actual impacts, due to different local circumstances and site conditions.
In other words, at the regional and local government level, it will be important to make appropriate
climate change projections and impact assessments looking at individual sites and regional
characteristics, and to develop adaptation strategies that are regionally appropriate based on scientific
data.
This Program aims to promote technology development for climate change projections that respondto local characteristics and local needs, and to promote the mainstreaming of adaptation measures.
A key concept we use here is "social implementation" (in Japanese, shakai jisso, which could also betranslated as "mainstreaming") of climate projections and other adaptation technologies. Based on

3

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

that concept, the Program identifies important themes for strategy development and popularization at
the regional and local government levels.
This FY2016 edition of the Report on Local Climate Adaptation in Japan was compiled for use bystakeholders at local governments as well as residents and businesses, and it summarizes thecurrent climate change projection technologies in this Program, as well as the state of implementationof adaptation measures especially at the regional level. We will continue to promote the developmentof technologies that can be used in local communities, and work to enhance knowledge and data
relating to adaptation measures. We welcome your support and cooperation in this Program, andinvite you to contact us with any comments or suggestions you may have.
I heartily hope that many people will obtain this report and use it extensively when developing local
climate adaptation measures.

Mitsuru Tanaka (Hosei University),
Chair of SI-CAT Implementation Team4

Index
Chapter 1 Trends in Promoting the Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation Measures

7

1-1. Science and Technology: Crucial Role in Climate Adaptation

7

1-2. Policy Trends of Climate Adaptation Measures in Japan

8

Chapter 2 Status of Technological Development for Examining Adaptation Measures10

2-1. Ensemble Climate Change Projection Database10

2-2. Downscaling

11

2-3. Climate Change Impact Assessments

13

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

15

3-1. Climate Change Risk Assessments by Local Governments

15

3-2. Local Government Needs for the SI-CAT App

21

3-3. Matching of Technology Resources with Government Needs (Co-Design Workshop)

27

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

32

4-1. Developing Local Adaptation Scenarios Using Deliberative Stakeholder Dialogue: Gifu Prefecture, Japan32

4-2. Using Online Deliberation to Discover Stakeholder Attitudes on Adaptation Measures Nationwide

43

4-3. Overseas Case Study on Mainstreaming of Climate Science and Technology: NECAP

47

4-4. Planning for Adaptive Management in Climate Adaptation Strategies: Procedures and Results

52

4-5. Creating an Adaptation Community as an Entry Point to "Local Studies in Climate Change"

57

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan

63

5-1. Hokkaido: Snow Compaction in Agriculture (Kitami Region)63

5-2. Ibaraki Prefecture: Agriculture

645-3. Ibaraki Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture: Coastal Areas

66

5-4. Saitama Prefecture: Adaptation Initiatives

67

5-5. Nagano Prefecture: Disaster Prevention, Agriculture, Ecosystems, etc.

68

5-6. Gifu Prefecture: Flooding and Sediment-related Disasters

70

5-7. Shiga Prefecture: Integrated Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures71

5-8. Osaka City: Heat Stress72

5-9. Shikoku Region: Flooding and Storm Surge73

5-10. Saga Prefecture: Flooding and Storm Surge

76

78

Authors

Index

6

Chapter 1
Trends in Promoting the Mainstreaming of
Climate Adaptation Measures
1-1. Science and Technology: Crucial Role in Climate Adaptation
Impacts that could be attributed to climate change, which arises from global warming, are becoming
increasingly prevalent. The international community has recognized projections that climate change
will intensify over the course of this century. We must be ready to prepare to respond to thatchange. However, the question is "How?" To answer this question, science and technology have at
the very least a crucial role to play in explaining and offering climate change projections and impact
assessments in ways that people can understand. The reason for this is that when it comes toaddressing the challenges, more than other disciplines, the fields of science and technology need to
be able to show that they are "in society" and "for society," or said differently, "together with society,"because climate change itself is a global-scale challenge. Also, since climate change projections andimpact assessments come with uncertainty due to the very nature of projections, their explanations
must come with some consideration based on how they will be accepted in or by society.
For researchers in this area, it is obviously impossible for one single field of discipline to respondalone. A transdisciplinary approach is therefore needed due to the broad scope of stakeholders
involved. Researchers must rise above their individual fields of discipline to collaborate with people
in many other disciplines, including the humanities and social sciences. To develop further themainstreaming of research findings, they must expand their scope to transdisciplinary research incollaboration with people involved, beyond science and technology.
In response to such needs, the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Technology (SI-CAT) was created with the aim of presenting concrete approaches to address challenges,
and then links to local government and other bodies as part of mainstreaming. It could be described as
an unprecedented, challenging and ambitious project, as it starts with climate research, continues with
impact assessment research, and then makes the connection to local government and other bodies thatare a part of mainstreaming. Even so, under the current situation there is insufficient public demand as
the driving force for adaptation, so research and development could end up being isolated in individual
disciplines, and there is the potential that cross-disciplinary cooperation and transdisciplinary research
may not occur. However, even in that case, the research findings until then would not necessarily be
wasted. The impacts of climate change are already present and adaptation is necessary not only now but
also in the future. SI-CAT endeavors to create results that will serve as a foundation to that end, and will
strive to present as many examples of actual cases of mainstreaming as possible.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

1-2. Policy Trends of Climate Adaptation Measures in JapanIn November 2015 Japan’s first National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change wasadopted by Cabinet Decision, clarifying in detail the country’s basic approaches to climate change
adaptation and measures in each sector and the implementation of the related measures started.
Naturally, prior to that National Plan, measures were being taken in individual areas such as
agriculture and water-related disasters, but this National Plan is based on input such as future climate
projections and impact assessment results, and serves as a crucial starting point for initiatives topromote systematic adaptation measures for society as a whole.
This National Plan covers five basic strategies: (1) mainstreaming adaptation into a broad range ofgovernment policies and measures; (2) enhancing scientific knowledge through proper observation,
monitoring, and research; (3) promoting public understanding and awareness by sharing andproviding information about climate risks based on scientific knowledge; (4) promoting a variety ofconcrete adaptation measures by local governments and other actors; and (5) promoting international
cooperation and contributions where adaptation needs are high, particularly in developing countries.
To promote sector-by-sector adaptation measures this way, the government is using the reiterativeplan-do-check-act (PDCA) quality control cycle and revising plans as necessary, through ongoingobservation and monitoring as well as projections of climate change. To do this it is working tokeep abreast of scientific knowledge, conducting periodic climate change impact assessments, andascertaining the state of progress with measures. The government has a framework to implement a
climate change impact assessment and revise the National Plan approximately every five years.
Having this National Plan and the general flow of adaptation measures in place, in March 2017 thegovernment issued a document entitled "Guidelines for Initiatives on Scientific Knowledge and Climate
Risk Information to Promote Climate Change Adaptation Measures (Interim Report)." This reportassessed and analyzed national government initiatives to date as well as local government trends
based on the National Plan, and then while referring to input from experts, industry and others, itoutlined the current status and challenges. Based on the direction of initiatives covered in the report,
it is now necessary to get more specific about effective adaptation measures built upon collaboration
with the relevant government ministries and agencies, and to encourage steady progress that reflects
actual conditions in society.
Meanwhile, many fundamental social changes are occurring at the regional and local levels that
affect local society and communities, including population decline, low birth rates and the aging ofsociety, migration to bigger cities, changes in industrial structure, and geographical vulnerabilities. In
response to regional differences such as these, the impacts of climate change will also vary greatly,
and this will also affect the orientation of adaptation measures needed. In particular, to encourage
initiatives such as self-directed efforts for climate adaptation plus policy formulation by citizens,businesses, local governments and other local stakeholders, tools are being developed such as
the "Climate Change Adaptation Information Platform" for providing climate risk information andChapter 1 Trends in Promoting the Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation Measures8the "Regional Adaptation Consortium Project" which supports the provision of scientific knowledge
and tools relating to regional climate change projections and impact assessments through thecollaboration of related parties. Going forward, we hope to see active progress toward an "adaptive
society" and further utilization of these policy tools, plus the mainstreaming of the projection andimpact assessment technologies that SI-CAT aims for.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Chapter 2
Status of Technological Development for
Examining Adaptation Measures
2-1. Ensemble Climate Change Projection Database
Today, more than ever, there are significant questions in key areas relating to climate adaptation
measures, including disaster prevention, agriculture, and health. For example, how concerned should
we be about extreme events (heavy rainfall, droughts, extreme heat, etc.) compared to what we haveexperienced in the past, and what is their likelihood of occurring? To make projections of future
variations in extreme events that occur infrequently but with some confidence once every several
decades or more, it is useful to compare statistical values from sufficiently large samples. For this, we
can conduct large-scale ensemble simulations* using supercomputers to model the past and futureclimates and use the latest climate models (similar to the models used for weather forecasts). In that
context, SI-CAT has worked with the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI) underJapan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) to create an ensemble
climate change projection database known as the "database for Policy Decision making for Futureclimate change" (d4PDF), and both are engaged in technological development for local governments
and other bodies to be able to effectively use the probabilistic information from the database toconsider adaptation measures.

Projections for 2ºC average global
temperature increase above
pre-industrial levels
Past simulation by climate model
Projections for 4ºC increase

Observed historical values (1951–2010)
from meteorological bureaus

Figure 2-1: Frequency distribution of August maximum daily temperatures in Tokyo
The resulting quantitative projection information shows increased frequency of extremely hot days (35ºC or
higher) due to a warming climate.

Chapter 2 Status of Technological Development for Examining Adaptation Measures10All model values were corrected using methodology from Piani et al. (2010). Shadow bands show
the standard deviation of the ensemble members. The graph was prepared using data from 48
members each (x 60 years) for the past for 4ºC temperature increase simulations, and six members (x10 years) for the 2ºC temperature increase simulations.
* Ensemble simulations: These are iterative weather simulations for a specified time period conductedwith small variations in the calculation parameters. For example for the 60-year period from1951 to 2010, the data obtained from simulation for one case (counted as one "member") covers
60 years, but if this is increased to 100 members, data for 6,000 years can be obtained. Thissignificantly increases the confidence level when assessing the statistical probability of a heavy
rainfall that occurs once in 30 years.
Reference:
d4PDF website (http://www.miroc-gcm.jp/~pub/d4PDF/index_en.html)

2-2. Downscaling
The resolution of numerical models is an important factor when reproducing various climate
and weather phenomena. The spatial resolution of the climate models for the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and otherclimate models being utilized for warming projections is on the scale of about 100 km. This is notalways a sufficient level of resolution to provide detailed information directly for local governments
and other bodies to evaluate climate change impacts and consider adaptation measures. Thus, forthe mainstreaming of climate adaptation measures it is important to prepare detailed future climate
information at the regional scale by developing information that boosts the resolution using methods
known as downscaling. Two downscaling methods are widely used, statistical and dynamical, eachwith its own strengths and weaknesses.
Statistical downscaling combines statistical spatial interpolation and corrections of the model biases
based on historical observation. It has the benefit of being able to handle a large number of scenarios
since the demand on computing power is relatively small, but this technique also has some difficulties
depicting features on small spatio-temporal scales if the resolution of the original datasets is coarse.
On the other hand, dynamical downscaling can represent results in a physically-consistent form evenfor small-scale phenomena that are not reproduced in the original dataset, because a detailed spatiotemporal dataset is created using a regional climate model based on laws of physics, but datasets canonly be created for a limited number of cases due to constraints in computational resources.
Combining these methodologies to match the purpose, the SI-CAT program prepares datasets withthe detailed spatio-temporal scales that enable local governments and other bodies to utilize thewarming projections. In terms of standard datasets for all of Japan, we prepare mesh level 3 data (1km resolution) using statistical downscaling. To exploit the advantage that statistical downscaling canhandle a large number of cases, these datasets are aimed at preparing climate scenarios that can

11

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)represent a spread of climate change projections. The spread is based on three factors: (1) differencesin GHG emission scenarios, (2) uncertainty of climate models, and (3) natural variation. The spreadfor these first and second factors can also be assessed on a more regional scale by downscaling theresults of many climate models, so we plan to work with warming projections calculated by several
emission scenarios and as many climate models as possible. Figure 2-2 is an example of calculation
by statistical downscaling, showing the 1-km mesh annual average surface temperature distribution
in February for the years 1990–2000 and 2040–2050.
At the same time, this program is also developing technology for dynamical downscaling that model
local governments can use to develop and consider more specific adaptation measures. For example,
because factors like localized rainfall, such as rainfall and snowfall associated with mountainous
areas, cannot be represented well by statistical downscaling, we plan to prepare detailed datasets
using dynamical downscaling and use them for river and coastal disaster prevention and mountainous
area ecosystem assessments. However, because dynamical downscaling does not enable targetingof as many cases as statistical downscaling, we are conducting research and development of new
methodologies that combine analytical and statistical methods to identify the cases required fordevelopment and consideration of adaptation measures.
The development of methodologies for downscaling techniques described above is not just for thesake of preparing datasets; the knowledge of how to use that data can also lead to mainstreamingof adaptation measures by local governments. Thus, to expand efforts to formulate climate change
adaptation measures, it is important to build up knowledge and experience that combines both thedevelopment and utilization of datasets.

Figure 2-2: Distribution chart for 1-km mesh surface temperatures in February in the Chubu Region, preparedusing statistical downscaling
Annual average for 1990–2000 (left) and 2040–2050 (right)

Chapter 2 Status of Technological Development for Examining Adaptation Measures122-3. Climate Change Impact Assessments
In the project "Development of climate change impact assessment" in SI-CAT, we are developing
integrated methodologies to create climate change impact assessment information with a resolutionof about 1 km for several years to upwards of ten years (assumed around 2030), which can consider
the effects of adaptation measures. We use reliable near-term projections and super-high-resolution
downscaling projection results as climate scenarios, considering socio-economic scenarios asrequired.
National Level· Water-related disasters (Tohoku University): Flood inundation, storm surge, soil and sand erosion,
dam reservoir and lake water quality deterioration· Sediment-related disasters (Fukushima University): Sediment-related disaster risk (including forest
fires, wood debris, etc.)· Forest ecosystems (Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute): Suitable area for forest
ecosystem dominant species, the impact of forest change on water resources and sediment-related
disasters· Agriculture (Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research
Organization): Yield of major Japanese crops (mainly rice)· Fruit trees (Institute of Fruit Tree and Tea Science, National Agriculture and Food Research
Organization): Apples, mandarin oranges, and other major fruit trees, plus sub-tropical fruit trees
expected to see increased production in the future· Fisheries (Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency): Variations in coastal environments thatare rapidly changing with climate change, and their impacts· Water resources (Kyoto University): River flow conditions and water resources associated withclimate change· Health (University of Tsukuba): Thermal environment, health impacts
Regional Level· Storm surge, water- and sediment-related disasters (Kyushu University): River catchment inundation,
storm surge inundation, sediment-related disasters, integrated assessment systems· Agriculture (Ibaraki University): Yields of multiple crops (impacts on vegetable shipments, occurrenceof chalky rice grains (CRGs) due to insufficient accumulation of starch, etc.)· Fruit trees (NEC Solution Innovators, Ltd.): Recording and accumulating implementation experiencesof climate change adaptation measures in production areas in detail, extracting effectiveness ofadaptation measures and know-how on implementation

13

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

As outlined above, SI-CAT is engaged in impact assessments in many areas and working to develop
models to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various adaptation measures. In addition, weare developing applications tools (SI-CAT app) that can package data (technologies and products
developed by SI-CAT) to be conveniently used by local government staffs responsible for considering
adaptation measures, companies, and other bodies, with the outcomes of other technology
development organizations.

Chapter 2 Status of Technological Development for Examining Adaptation Measures

14

Chapter 3
Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of
Climate Adaptation
3-1. Climate Change Risk Assessments by Local Governments
To collect information on local governments’ efforts to develop climate change adaptation strategies
and measures, in fiscal 2015 and 2016 we implemented a survey in questionnaire format. The purpose
was to clarify how SI-CAT model prefectures and other local governments in Japan perceived climatechange risks as a whole, which consists of hazards, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity; the stateof evidence of climate change impacts, as well as their magnitude and urgency; and the state ofadaptation measures. In addition to these, we explored their needs for climate change projections andimpact assessments, which we describe in the next section. Here we present the findings based on
responses from 95 departments in 15 local governments (specifically, the environmental, agricultural
policy, disaster prevention, health, and industry and tourism departments). We have aggregated thedata on their perceptions about climate change risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity into four
topics, listed as (1) to (4) below. It is important to note that the number of responses varied by local
government and the topics, and responses were based on the perceptions of the respondents in thecourse of executing their day-to-day duties so these are not the official responses of the departments.
Also, we defined the term "risk assessment" as an overarching concept that covers a variety of factors
necessary for adaptation strategies such as (1) to (4).
(1) Perceived risk of each event: Figure 3-1-1(2) Critical hazards from climate change and sectors affected: Figure 3-1-2(3) Vulnerability to climate change, and challenges for adaptive capacity: Figure 3-1-3(4) Climate change impact outcomes that should be avoided (worst-case outcomes): Figure 3-1-3(1) Perceived Risk of Each Event in Terms of Preparing Policies and Measures
Figure 3-1-1 shows the aggregated results of perceived risk for each set of events from "a" to "g,"which are potential hazards in preparing policies and measures. The figure denoted (a) shows thetotals for responses from all 95 departments, while (b) shows the totals for each of the five categories
of departments, for two sets of events associated with climate change impacts: "d" (weather-related
disasters) and "e" (changes caused by global warming). The events for which most local officials
responded "quite dangerous" or "somewhat dangerous" were "d" (weather-related disasters) and "f"(other natural disasters: earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption). Regarding "e" (changes caused by
global warming), the most common response was "no particular perception," and the perception of

15

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

risk tended to be slightly weaker compared to "d" and "f." As for "d," 80% of environmental, disasterprevention, and agricultural policy officials responded "quite/somewhat dangerous," and in particular,disaster prevention departments have an extremely strong perception of risk. As for "e," approximately
90% of environmental departments responded "quite/somewhat dangerous," compared to only
about 20% for industry and tourism departments, though the difference among departments was notstatistically significant.
0%

a

20%

40%

10

36

b

18

29

c

16

37

60%

80%

100%

27

11

15

31

7

15

10

11

Quite dangerous
Somewhat dangerous
No particular perception
Not so dangerous
Hardly danger at all

d

25

42

e

35

23

f

18

36
36

g 7

38

4 5

c. Changes in socioeconomic conditions (rapid population increases,
depopulation, decreasing birthrate and aging population, poverty/disparities,
economic collapse, etc.)

24d. Weather-related disasters (flooding, landslide disasters, extreme heat, little
rain, storm surges/high waves, tornadoes, heavy snowfall, etc.)

24
27

10

b. Accidents related to human activities (related to transportation, information
infrastructure, energy infrastructure, atomic power, etc.)

22

32
33

a. Environmental pollution from human activities, etc. (pollution of the air,water quality, soil, or ocean, ground subsidence, etc.)

e. Changes caused by global warming (increasing temperatures, rising sea
levels, beach loss, inadequate snowfall, etc.)

18

f. Other natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions)g. Changes in ecosystems (bird and animal damage, insect pests, non-native
species, loss of biodiversity, etc.)

Total responses from all departments: 95(a) Perceived risk of each event by all departments
0%20%

Environment

24

All

80%

100%

88

Agriculture
policyIndustryand tourism

60%
71

Disasterprevention

Health

40%

33

15

23

29

35

35

P=0.000008

14

54

29

42

6

Environment

4Disasterprevention

8

48

18

0%

20%

25

Agriculture
policy25

8Health23

6

Industryand tourism

24

d. Climate-related disasters (flooding, landslidedisasters, extreme heat, little rain, storm surges/highwaves, tornadoes, heavy snowfall, etc.)

All

60%

39

5

22

40%

23

80%

100%

50

21

6

38

8

50

6

8

20

38

5

31

65

36

8

6

32

6

4 5

P=0.064165

e. Changes caused by global warming (increasing
temperatures, rising sea levels, beach loss,
inadequate snowfall, etc.)(b) Perceived risk of each event by each department especially ford. Weather-related disasters and e. Changes caused by global warming
Numbers at bottom left are p values from χ2 tests. For (d) (weather-related disasters),"
the differences among departments are significant at 1%, but for (e) (changes caused by global warming) they are not significant at 5%.

Figure 3-1-1: Perceived risk of each event in terms of preparing policies and measures

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation16

(2) Critical Hazards from Climate Change and Sectors Affected
Figure 3-1-2 provides an overview of the critical hazards from climate change and sectors affected,
where local officials perceive the "impact is significant." It depicts what hazards (vertical axis) areperceived to affect what sectors (horizontal axis) by summarizing the results in matrix form. These
are divided into long-term gradually-changing events ("e": changes caused by global warming, on left),and short-term extreme events ("d": weather-related disasters, on right). The figures in the matrix
represent the number of respondents indicating that the respective hazard has an impact; the higher
the number, the darker the color.
In the agricultural sector, with the exception of ocean-related hazards, nearly all hazards (particularly
those related to temperature and precipitation) are perceived as important. It is also clear that withwater- and sediment-related disasters, there are strong concerns about hazards from increases inprecipitation associated with global warming, as well as torrential rains, heavy rainfall, and strong
typhoons associated with weather-related disasters. It is also worth noting that almost all hazards areperceived as an impact on industry and economic activity as well as citizen livelihood and urban living
sectors.

17

Docment title

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Water environment

Water resources

Natural ecosystem

Flood damage

Landslide disasters

CoastsSummer heat

Infectious diseases

Industrial/economic activities

People's lives /Urban life

Average temperature increases 17

5

0

1

1

10

3

4

0

10

7

3

5

Highest temperature increases 14

3

0

1

1

5

3

3

0

14

3

3

4

Total responses from all departments: 89

9

4

0

1

1

5

2

2

0

4

3

2

4

Decreased rainfall 13

3

1

4

12

7

1

2

0

0

0

5

2

Lowest temperature increases

Increased rainfall 13

4

1

0

2

4

22 28

0

0

0

8

2

Decreased snowfall

6

2

0

3

4

4

0

0

0

0

0

2

2
1

2

1

Other

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

People's lives /Urban life

1

0

Industrial/economic activities

10

Infectious diseases

00Summer heat

6

1

Coasts01

Landslide disasters

4

2

Flood damage

20Natural ecosystem

02

Water resources

2

4

Water environment

20Fisheries

00

Forestry1Agriculture

Rise in sea levels
Rise in sea temperatures

Extreme summer heat 18

2

0

0

1

3

0

0

0

18

3

6

4

Localized downpours of short duration 12

2

0

0

0

2

27 34

0

0

1

7

3

Heavy rains exceeding several hundred mm of rainfall 10

2

1

0

0

3

30 34

0

0

1

9

3

Intermittent spells of heavy rain 12

2

0

0

0

2

29 33

0

0

2

8

3

Extremely small amounts of rainfall 15

2

1

4

8

3

1

2

0

0

0

8

2

2

0

2

0

0

0

5

0

7

0

0

4

2

Strong typhoons 14

2

2

0

1

0

21 25

2

0

0

11

3

Heavy snowfall

7

2

0

0

0

1

4

7

0

0

0

10

3

Snowmelt flooding

Storm surges/high waves

2

1

0

1

0

0

9

7

0

0

1

4

1

Strong winds/tornados 10

2

2

0

0

0

3

5

0

0

0

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Other

Figure 3-1-2: Critical hazards from climate change and sectors affected
Long-term gradual changes (above), Short-term extreme events (below)
Figures indicate the number of respondents indicating "Impact is significant."

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation18

(3) Vulnerability to Climate Change, and Challenges for Adaptive Capacity
The magnitude of impact from climate change is determined by the relationship between external
forces of climate change (hazards) and resilience (vulnerability and adaptive capacity). In other words,
where there is susceptibility (vulnerability) but inadequate preparation (adaptive capacity), the impact
will be larger for any given climate hazard. Figure 3-1-3 summarizes the sectors where local officials
perceive there are challenges in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the outcomes they
think should be avoided. In each matrix, the higher the number, the stronger the color.
Overall, the disaster prevention departments tend to have the strongest perception that there arechallenges with resilience to impacts, and strongest perception of risk in relation to outcomes thatshould be avoided. There are some differences by department, owing to differences in sectors forwhich they are responsible. Also, the figure shows that health departments tend to be more concerned
about the number of physically vulnerable people as well as the impacts of extreme heat, andhuman casualties; agricultural policy departments tend to be more concerned about depopulation,
problems with forest and rural land management, and difficulties in sustaining agriculture, as well as
deterioration of the natural environment.

19

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

TotalIndustry /Tourism bureaus

Health services bureaus

Agriculture-related bureaus

Disaster prevention bureaus

Environmental administration bureaus

Outcomes to be prevented

Total

Industry /Tourism bureaus

Health services bureaus

Agriculture-related bureaus

Disaster prevention bureaus

Environmental administration bureaus

Risk sensitivity/adaptability

N of responses 20 24 21 13 15 93

N of responses 20 24 21 13 15 93
Sensitivity

Loss of life

People and property are located in areas that are low-lying or
0 m above sea level

3

12

3

0

3

21

Loss of life due to overflowing rivers

6

14

5

1

7

33

People and property are located on (steep) slopes

4

16

5

0

3

28

Loss of life due to inundations inside levees

4

17

4

0

5

30

People and property are located on soft ground

2

12

5

0

2

21

Loss of life due to landslide disasters

7

19

8

1

5

40

2

7

4

1

1

15

People and property are located in river basins prone to flooding

5

14

5

1

2

27

Loss of life due to storm surges/
high wave disasters

People and property are located in flood zones

5

17

5

2

4

33

Loss of life due to complex disaster

3

13

5

1

5

27

Loss of life due to summer heat

5

2

6

9

3

25

25

People and property are located on coasts prone to erosion

0

5

1

0

1

7

Urban design problems (few paths for wind, low green spaceratios, high building coverage/floor-area ratios)

3

2

1

2

2

10

Deteriorating infrastructure

5

15

6

1

5

32

Long-term injury to physical or mental health

3

9

1

4

8

7

11

5

1

12 36

4

15

6

1

14 40

Loss or damage affecting daily living or industry

Depopulation

3

2

8

0

4

17

Crowding of factories and residences

0

1

0

2

3

6

Interruption to the supply of food or infrastructure
for living (electricity, water, gas, etc.)
Fragmentation or interruption of transportationor communication facilities

Many vacant houses

1

1

0

1

1

4

Suspension of financial service facilities

3

2

3

0

10 18

Many single-person households

2

0

0

2

1

5

Suspension of production or supply chains

3

3

5

0

12 23

Housing problems (deterioration, bad insulation, shoddy
construction)
Many physically vulnerable people (people receiving long-termcare, elderly people)
Many socially vulnerable people (elderly people, people living
in poverty, single mother families)

2

1

0

3

0

6

Buildings or homes being washed away,damaged or collapsing

5

10

3

0

10 28

3

4

1

9

0

17

Long-term living in evacuation shelters

3

12

3

2

4

24

3

3

0

4

1

11

Long-term deterioration of the food situation

4

3

4

1

4

16

Inadequate reserves of water resources

3

1

4

1

0

9

Long-term deterioration of water resourcing

10

7

6

3

4

30

Inadequate reserves of forests/undeveloped woodlands near
populated areas

1

6

7

0

1

15

Long-term economic decline

3

5

6

0

10 24

5

9

3

0

8

25

Presence of endangered or rare species

6

0

0

0

0

6

Suspension of governmental administrative
activities

Single crop farming

1

0

2

0

0

3

Beach loss

1

4

1

0

0

6

Difficulty in sustaining agriculture

6

3

16

0

5

30

Adaptability
Administrative policies/plans for coping with climate change
impact risks
Administrative resources (staffing, budget) to promote copingwith climate change impact risks
Infrastructure (levees, tide embankments, flood gates, sewers,
water reservoirs, retarding basins, etc.)

8

10 10

4

5

37

Difficulty in sustaining fishing

2

2

3

0

4

11

9

10 10

4

4

37

Difficulty in sustaining forestry

3

3

4

0

2

12

5

18

7

2

4

36

Outdoor activities becoming difficult due to heat

5

1

5

8

5

24

Monitoring (hourly rainfall, etc.)

6

10

3

1

1

21

Daily living becoming difficult due to heat

3

1

1

8

3

16

Resident and business preparedness for and understanding ofclimate change impact risks

7

10

4

4

4

29

Damage to biodiversity or culture

Warning systems (disaster prevention, summer heat, etc.)

0

12

0

2

2

16

Readiness of evacuation sites

0

10

3

0

3

16

Local populations becoming fragmented or being
wiped out
The natural environment being irreparably
damaged, lost

8

7

12

1

5

33

BCP (business continuity plans)

2

10

2

0

9

23

Traditional culture becoming difficult to sustain

5

2

1

0

3

11

Neighborhood relations, community bonds

0

4

1

2

0

7

Other

1

0

0

0

0

1

Medical care/health services

0

1

0

5

0

6

Other

0

1

1

0

0

2

7

2

3

0

3

15

Figure 3-1-3: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity (left), and climate change
impact outcomes that should be avoided (right)
Figures indicate the number of respondents indicating "this is a challenge."

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation20

3-2. Local Government Needs for the SI-CAT App
SI-CAT is developing a "SI-CAT app" as a tool for users to access the results of a variety of climatechange impact assessments as well as the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The web-based
application will enable users to browse a variety of SI-CAT products and outcomes. Three levels arebeing considered: Level 1 mainly for local governments and businesses, Level 2 for local government
research institutions and consulting companies, and Level 3 for universities, research institutions
and other potential users. SI-CAT is considering permanent arrangements to enable users to accessthe content even after the SI-CAT program ends. Discussions are under way for the SI-CAT app toultimately be hosted with and be one of the functions of DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System,of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, or MEXT). We are seeking thecontinued operation of DIAS so that the SI-CAT app will also be permanently accessible.
As mentioned above, Level 1 of the SI-CAT app is intended for use mainly by local governments andby businesses. To pursue this, from July to September 2016, we visited 22 places nationwide, mostly
local governments, to study local government needs related to the SI-CAT app. The destinations
were selected based on a Hosei University questionnaire-based study that targeted 155 publicbodies nationwide at the end of the 2015 fiscal year. Based on their responses, 21 organizations
were selected to visit (Table 3-2-1). In November 2016, Osaka City participated in SI-CAT as a local
government with needs, and when we visited there we implemented a similar study.
During the fiscal 2016 visits we focused mainly on the environmental departments of local
governments, but in some cases we were also able to ask agricultural departments, disasterprevention departments, and local government research institutions about their expectations for the
SI-CAT app.
For the visits we brought along an information sheet describing the SI-CAT app and providing
examples of user screens so that interviewees could get a concrete idea of the proposed app (Figure3-1). While they viewed the materials we asked the questions shown in Table 3-2-2 one by one andnoted their spoken responses (see summary results in Table 3-2-3, Table 3-2-4).
The responses varied significantly. For example, a respondent at one local government said,"We don’t want our future projections to be seen outside of our local government." Another person
responded "We want to see the future projections of comparable prefectures." Regarding temporal
resolution for projections just in the agricultural sector, one respondent said, "For the quality ofagricultural crops, we need annual increments," while another said, "For agricultural crops we needmonthly increments, and we see the need for projections of high temperatures in September in
relation to harvests," and yet another, "For agriculture we need cumulative temperatures, so we needdaily temperature values." Relating to the topic of extreme heat there was also a request for the capacity
to have hourly temperature breakdowns: "For the heat island effect we would like to have daily
temperatures, and we also need hourly nighttime temperatures." Essentially, the temporal resolution
needs depend on the category of climate change impact and intended use of the information.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

The impacts of climate change will differ by region, so the topics of concern will also vary.
In addition, depending on the stage of climate adaptation actions, the information required bystakeholders will also probably change. Thus, it is perhaps no surprise that we received a variety of
responses to our questions.
Meanwhile, many local governments had similar requests. For example: "We would like to use thisfor budget requests within the agency internally, and to explain things externally." "We need materials
that government staff are able to explain." "We would like the figures and tables designed so that wecan paste them into a Word document and print it out nicely in black and white."
Here are examples of other comments: "It would help if we can tell others the data is solid andreliable, and the numbers are released by a reputable organization." "The use of projections will
depend on the level at which they are authorized. Something more than just research results would
be preferred."
The SI-CAT App Working Group established within SI-CAT sorted and classified the 702 comments
received in terms of local government needs, and discussed whether or not they could be addressed
as well as how a response could be done institutionally (Table 3-2-5). We are considering ways todesign the SI-CAT app to serve as many users as possible, including through climate scenarios,
climate change impact assessments, the user interfaces, and so on.
We also learned how different local government departments have different needs: for example,
agricultural and disaster prevention compared to environmental departments. In fiscal 2017 we willplan visits to local governments to focus on studying the needs of these departments.
Table 3-2-1: List of local governments interviewed about their needs relating to SI-CAT app
Survey conducted in 2016. The 11 underlined are part of a Ministry of the Environment subsidy program to support climate
adaptation. In addition, Osaka City is not listed here but was interviewed on November 28, 2016 as a local government with needs.

Date

Local government

Date

Local government

7/6

Kawasaki City (incl. city

7/28

Hyogo Prefecture (incl. govt. 8/9
research institutes)

Nagasaki Prefecture

research institutes)

Date

Local government

7/11

Sagamihara City (ord. desig. 8/1
city)

Kashiwa City (core city)

8/10

Fukuoka City (ord. desig.
city)

7/20

Miyagi Prefecture

8/1

Ibaraki Prefecture (env.
dept.)

8/17

Kanagawa Prefecture

7/21

Yokohama City (ord. desig.
city)

8/2

Tokushima Prefecture

8/19

Fukushima Prefecture

7/22

Hokkaido (incl. gov’t
research institutes)

8/3

Ehime Prefecture (env,fisheries, rivers dept.)

8/19

Iwate Prefecture

7/22

Hokkaido Regional
Development Bureau (riverdept.)

8/5

Sendai City

9/28

Ishikawa Prefecture

7/28

Kyoto City (env. disasterprevention dept.)

8/9

Fukuoka Prefecture (incl.
govt. research institutes)

9/28

Kanazawa City

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

22

Table 3-2-2: Interview topics for input on SI-CAT app (from interview sheet)
Interview topics for input on SI-CAT app
Q1

Parameters for spatial calculations besides 1 km mesh

Q2

Temporal resolution needed for projections

Q3

Average number of years of period for projection results

Q4

Year(s) targeted for near-term projections

Q5

Desired number of cases for projections

Q6

Usefulness of probabilistic representations or characterizations

Q7

Additional requests for climate indicators or impact assessment indicators

Q8

Existence and availability of data from individual local governments

Q9

File format of projection results for downloading

Q10

Functions to modify or control map display parameters

Q11

Requests for addition of any background maps

Q12

Additional requests for distribution information overlays on projection results

Q13

Scenarios envisioned for use of the SI-CAT app

Q14

Any other requests for functions or tools in the SI-CAT app

Sample screen of SI-CAT app
1 km mesh, sample of impact assessment indicator (extreme heat risk)

Q. Is just one case of projection results
sufficient? Should multiple results bedisplayed? What is preferred number ofresults?
Q. Would probabilistic representationsof multiple projection results be usefulfor local government policy
development?
Q. Do you have any requests regarding
spatial distribution that would be usefulfor you regarding projections of specificindicators (e.g., heat stroke risk)?
Q. Has your local government collected
some of its own data? Is any of itavailable for other uses?
Q. When data is downloaded, is it
important to be able to the area
(prefecture or entire municipality, etc.)?
What file type would you prefer?

Figure 3-2: Example of SI-CAT app screen (from interview sheet for local governments)

23

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Table 3-2-3: Summary of responses about SI-CAT app (from interview sheet) – Part 1
Q7 Additional requests for climate indicators or impact assessment indicators
Climateindicators

All temperature indicators, number of hot summer days (30ºC or above)(3 responses),
number of extremely hot days (35ºC or above)(3 responses), cumulative temperature,
precipitation indicators (2 responses), precipitation (20 mm in 1 hour, 50/80/100 mm in
24 hours), number of rainless days, typhoon indicators (including number making landfall,etc.), snowfall indicators, snow-melt period, wind speed, solar radiation

Water bodies,water quality
indicators

Sea-level rise amount, seawater temperature (2 responses), water temperature (including
offshore), water temperature of water bodies including dam reservoirs, sea ice indicators,
wetland water quality, chlorophyll A concentrations

Disasterindicators

Flood-related indicators, flood damage predictions, urban flooding, inundation and riverflooding, river runoff volume, river indicators, sediment disasters

Healthindicators

Thermal environment indicators, heatstroke risk (2 responses), heatstroke patients(2 responses), WBGT and other apparent temperature indicators (2), intensification of
extreme heat environment, heat island effect, contagious disease, contagious diseasetransmission risk, changes in potential distribution of mosquitos and other arthropods

Ecosystem
indicators

Animals including deer and wild boar

Agriculture,
forestry,
fisheries
indicators

Rice (Yamada Nishiki, sake rice); indicators for mandarin oranges; warm-climate fruit suchas mandarin oranges, tankan, sudachi; pears and other regional specialties; vegetables;
common trees such as pine and Japanese cedar; migratory fish species; indicators
for aquaculture; marine fish and shellfish species (especially nori seaweed and oyster
aquaculture)

Other

Local versions of standard information; options that are suited to prefectural differences;want all the information available; prioritize the most significant impacts; difficult toanswer; need more time to consider; no requests at moment; none in particular; awaiting
response after sending summary list of existing impact assessments (2 responses)

Interface

Easy operation, enhanced features to select geographical area (multiple cells, option to
select multiple areas, etc.), option to select areas where temperature rise exceeds certain
degrees Celsius, option to search by postal code, GIS data import function, data output
options, drawing function within the app, various graphing functions, comparison screenby dual screens (comparison of maps with same criteria)Content

Visual and easy-to-understand content posting, function to display changes in how the
impact of greenhouse gas reduction efforts appears, function to show that our warmer
prefecture in the future will have climate like [another] prefecture, diagnostic charting
functions to display what governments should do based on impact assessment results,
clear indication of adaptation options, integration of multiple impact assessments

App useFree use of app, would like to try a prototype, would like to have user guidance andglossary, need user support and customer help service, would like it available forbusinesses, would like a trial period for area experts to test it, update functions to havethe latest information

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

24

Table 3-2-4: Summary of responses about SI-CAT app (from interview sheet) – Part 2· For many questions, multiple responses were permitted, so "Times selected" numbers in these tables do not match the number ofgovernments interviewed.
· "Percent" in these tables indicates the percent of total responses for each question.
Q1 Parameters for spatial calculations besides 1 km mesh
Response
Entire municipality (for prefecture, entire pref.)Administrative sub-units (for prefecture, municipalities)
Zones divided into multiple municipalities
By land use
Higher administrative units (for city, the pref.)Densely inhabited districts, downtown areas
Watershed units
Other responses (1 each of above responses)
Q2-1 Temporal resolution needed for projections
Response
YearlyMonthly
Daily
3 months
HourlyDifferent by impact category, impact item

Times selected
16
13
8
5
4
2
2
7

Percent
28%
23%
14%
9%
7%
4%
4%
12%

13
11
7
4
2
1

Percent
34%
29%
18%
11%
5%
3%

Times selected

Q2-2 Yearly value or period average value: Which is better?
Response
Times selected
Percent
Period average
737%Yearly value
4
21%
Prefer yearly value over period average
421%
Prefer both yearly and period average
2
11%
Other responses (1 each of above responses)
2
11%
Other: Depends on impact category or impact item, need to ask research institutes
Q3 Average number of years of period for projection results
Response
10 yearsCannot decide on best period for average
20 years
5 years
30 years
Other responses (1 each of above responses)
Other: 1 year, depends on the field, let user selectTimes selected
7
5
4
3
3
3

Percent
28%
20%
16%
12%
12%
12%

Q4 Year(s) targeted for near-term projections
Response
Times selected
Percent
Around 2030
11
37%
2050
7
23%
Around 2020 to 2030
3
10%Around 2020
2
7%2030 to 2050
2
7%
Let user choose near term target year(s)27%Other responses (1 each of above responses)
3
10%
Other: 2060, 2100, target year for near-term projections depends on impact category
Q5 Desired number of cases for projections
Response
Times selected
Percent
3 cases
926%
4 cases824%
5 cases
618%
2 cases
515%
1 case2
6%Other responses (1 each of above responses)
4
12%
Other: 6 cases, more is better, difficult to answer, depends on criteria

25

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Q6 Usefulness of probabilistic representations or characterizations
Response
Times selected
Percent
Useful11
58%
Difficult to answer
3
16%
Somewhat useful2
11%
Not useful2
11%
Usefulness depends on purpose1
5%
Q8-2 Existence and availability of data from individual local governments
Response
Times selected
Percent
Maybe but requires confirmation
941%
Public data can be used
732%
Do not know
4
18%
Yes, available (requires application)
1
5%
Will consider requests
1
5%
Q9 File format of projection results for downloading
Response
Map format
Numerical format
GIS format
PDF format
Binary format
No particular request

Times selected
18
17
10
6
2
1

Percent
33%
31%
19%
11%
4%
2%

Q10 Functions to modify or control map display parameters
Response
Times selected
Percent
Option to select maximums, minimums
14
25%
Option to change color selection
12
22%
Option to change number of display units
11
20%
Option to choose black-and-white vs grayscale printing
6
11%
Would like appropriate default settings
59%
Not needed
4
7%
Other responses (1 each of above responses)
35%
Other: Option to change font size, option to display 2+ maps side by side, consideration of
Universal Design
Q11 Requests for addition of any background maps
Q12 Additional requests for distribution information overlays on projection results
Times selected
Percent
Response
All available map information, distribution info
915%Standard maps
813%
"White map" (administrative boundaries)
7
11%
Land use map
711%Rivers, watersheds
58%
Topographical info (flatland, manufacturing, slope), elevations
4
6%
Population distribution
4
6%
Vegetation distribution, ecosystem info
3
5%
Rail lines
2
3%
Major roadways
2
3%
Municipal mapping information
2
3%
Future projection maps of various distribution info
2
3%
No comment
3
5%
Other responses (1 each of above responses)
4
6%
Other: Watershed boundaries, distance from sea, commercial / tourist facilities, depends on
impact indicator or type		
Q13 Scenarios envisioned for use of the SI-CAT app
Response
Resources and material for government internal discussions
Lectures, awareness-raising, presentations (oralpresentations)Public info, material for educational institutions (printed)
Resources/material for research organizations

Times selected20
12Percent
43%
26%

12
3

26%
6%

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

26

Table 3-2-5: Summary of local government needs addressed by SI-CAT app
Summary table
Local government needs
counts

Impact assessment side

Climate scenario perspective Yes

No◎ For FY2016

Needs
changes

Review on
climatescenario side

Difficult tojudge

Comments/
questions

Total

3

40

2

14

59

8

39

1

55

◯ For FY2017 and later

31− Database not supported

15

39

1

24

× Cannot register4△ Requires discussion◇ DIAS/SI-CAT app

1

11
16

60

5

51

20

17

41

Total 84

22

96

Difficult to judge

114

29
12

36

45

213

2

215

295

103

283

702

Table of responsibilities
Responsibility

Number of needs

a. Climate scenario side response

95b. Impact assessment side response

80c. No response

102

d. Consider both

24e. Climate scenario side review

11

f. Review by Hosei University

83

g. Review on impact assessment side

92

h. Not being considered

215
Total

702

3-3. Matching of Technology Resources with Government Needs (Co-Design Workshop)(1) Co-Design Workshop
For local governments to develop administrative plans for adaptation strategies, it is essential toconsider measures based on scientific information, such as near-term climate change projections
and impact assessments on local communities. Research is under way at SI-CAT’s technology
development organizations, but the current situation is that there is not enough mutual sharing of"resources" (research products that technology development organizations can share) and "needs"(information required when local governments are considering adaptation strategies), as well as thechallenges they face when trying to develop concrete adaptation measures.
Hosei University, with a role as on SI-CAT’s Implementation Team, held the First Local Government
Forum on Adaptation at Hosei University Ichigaya Campus on August 31, 2016. It was a co-design
workshop aimed at matching "needs" and "resources" relating to climate change adaptation
strategies. As shown in Table 3-3, the aim of the forum was to identify potential needs of local

27

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

governments, share topics for the development of concrete adaptation strategies, and discuss broader
mainstreaming. In total, 76 persons participated from MEXT, the Ministry of the Environment, local
governments, local environmental research institutions, technology development organizations, andimplementation organizations.
The first half was in lecture format, with introductions of the Technology Development Team’s"resources" and Hosei University’s study on local government "needs," as well as the activities of SICAT model local governments and progressive local governments. Presentations included the Ministryof the Environment’s adaptation strategies support programs as well as the policy processes andchallenges experienced by program case studies including Kawasaki City. Another presentation wasby Tokushima Prefecture, which is doing its own policy development, and Gifu Prefecture, a SI-CAT
model local government. For example, in Tokushima Prefecture, bylaws and plans are progressing
simultaneously and very quickly, supported by the national government’s planning efforts as well as
support of the prefectural assembly. Also, progressive local governments have completed work to
identify inherent adaptation measures (existing policies and measures that can lead to adaptation),and their consideration of additional adaptation measures is now moving ahead.
In the second half, people formed groups of about ten persons, and a total of five breakout
groups discussed disaster prevention, agriculture, or adaptation plans overall (Photo 3-3). Witha topic of "What technological developments would be useful for the development of adaptationplans," people from local governments, local environmental research institutions, and technology
development organizations discussed resources and needs directly with each other in the breakout
groups. The results were summarized on poster paper and presented to the entire forum, and thewords mentioned were visualized using their frequency and co-occurrence in real time and shared(Figure 3-3-1). Efforts were made to ensure that every breakout group included someone from eachstakeholder group present, and expert facilitators facilitated discussions.

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

28

Table 3-3: Outline of Local Government Forum on Adaptation
Date and time

August 31, 2016 (Wednesday), 1 to 5 pm

Location

Hosei University, Ichigaya Campus

Affiliation of participants

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Ministry of the Environment,
local government personnel from nationwide with interest in adaptation, regional
environmental research institutes, SI-CAT Technology Development Team, SI-CAT
Implementation Team, etc.

Purpose· Identify potential needs of local governments· Share comments on challenges for developing concrete adaptation measures, consider how
to expand mainstreaming of adaptation

Agenda· First half - Lecture format>Introduce resources from SI-CAT Technology Development Team
>Hosei University reports findings of survey on local government needs>Introduce local government initiatives· Second half - Divide into small groups for workshop format

Photo 3-3: Breakout group at Local Government
Forum on Adaptation

Figure 3-3-1: Trial visualization of key words in real
time

29

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

(2) Visualization of Discussion Content Using Text Mining
Here we introduce the results of a research trial to analyze the discussions by the three breakout
groups that addressed adaptation plans overall at the Local Government Forum on Adaptation. We
tried to identify the themes discussed in the groups and differences in tendencies of remarks on
the themes by affiliation (local government, local environmental research institution, or technology
development organization) with text mining of the discussion transcripts. This framework is also one
important component among a variety of social technologies introduced in the next chapter.
Text mining is a general term for a variety of computer-based methods to extract valuable
information from text data through quantitative analysis. This analytical method enables a consistent
approach for analysis of a large volume of data.
Specifically, we identified the words with high occurrence frequency in the three breakout groups
and classified these words according to the frequency of co-occurrence in the same remarks. We
interpreted the word groups thus classified as the keywords that express the details of what was
spoken, and attempted to extract the topics that were discussed (Figure 3-3-2, bottom left). As aresult, we were able to quantitatively determine the topics discussed in the groups, including the"precision of research outcomes," "prioritization of adaptation measures," and "explanations to otherdepartments."
In order to ascertain any differences in the reference to the theme by the participants’ affiliation,
we also created a network graph in which the size of circles denotes the number of remarks, andthe thickness of lines denotes the frequency of mention of each theme by affiliation (Figure 3-3-2,
bottom right). The results showing which participants referred most frequently to which themes canthereby be understood visually. For example, for local government administrators one can see thatfrequently-mentioned topics were "staff reassignments and collaboration with other departments"and "explanations to other departments," while for researchers from technology development
organizations, frequent topics included "climate change projections" and "precision of researchoutcomes."
These research results can support communication between the local government personnel
and researchers from local environmental research institutions and technology development
organizations, and can be utilized to show the contents of discussions objectively. In typical meetings,
participants can check only the meeting notes. In contrast, by using this method, it is possible toconfirm what theme was discussed frequently, and on what perspectives there were differences.
This could therefore be an effective way to confirm mutual awareness and gaps in concern, and tofind common points of interest. The possible uses of this methodology are vast, and as introducedin the next chapter, we use it extensively to detail online discussions as well as interview-based
studies about the development of local adaptation scenarios using deliberative stakeholder dialogue
methods.

Chapter 3 Topics for Local Governments Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation

30

Local Government
Forum on Adaptation
Government
personnel Researchers△□×…

Researchers

Government
personnel

×○□…
Researchers×○□…

…
"Accuracy of
research results"

Government
personnel

Data analysis
Multivariate analysis
Network Analysis

Morphological analysis
Word occurrence andfrequency

Depictions of themes
discussed (example)
Range, scenarios, precision,cases, calculation,certainty, resolution,
conditions, researchoutcomes○△×…

Text mining

Transcripts
□×△…

□×△…

Visualizing diﬀerences in trends alluded
to in themes based on aﬃliation
Understandable information
and reliability

Climate change projections

Plans, priorities, soft
measures, breed
improvement"Prioritization of
Explanation, budget, relevant measures"
departments, need,correlation, responsible
departments, potential
adaptation measures,scientiﬁc basis"Explaining to otherdepartments"

Accuracy of researchﬁndings

Mainstreaming ofadaptation
Regional research
institutions
Simple tools
Local government
administration
Personnel changes
and collaboration
with otherdepartments Explaining tootherdepartments

Technology
development
organizations

Prioritizationof measures
Strategies toaddress global
warming impacts

Figure 3-3-2: Flow of visualization of discussion content

31

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Data sources
Need for precision

Top-down information
provision

Central government
authorization

Chapter 4
Progress on Approaches for
Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation
4-1. Developing Local Adaptation Scenarios Using Deliberative Stakeholder
Dialogue: Gifu Prefecture, Japan(1) Introduction
Local governments can only be expected to formulate effective policies that are highly implementable
and able to gain stakeholders’ understanding and cooperation when they examine the local impactsof climate change and involve a variety of stakeholders. To date we have attempted to depict andshare future visions of local communities (narrative-style local adaptation scenarios), starting withclimate change, by working with experts, local officials, and stakeholders in some local communities,
as shown in Figure 4-1. For example, there could be major challenges in building consensus withina given region when dealing with questions about the significance of a range of impacts portrayed inclimate scenarios and how to decide on the time scales for policymaking premised on uncertainty.
In order to integrate stakeholders’ local and practical livelihood knowledge with expert knowledge
in a mutually complementary way, it is crucial to have a forum for this process. Narrative-style local
adaptation scenarios as the outcomes of such forums, thus, can help stakeholders understand climatechange risk and other risks that local communities are likely to face, as well as approaches to respondto them through sharing a vision for the future.

Figure 4-1: Process of development of local adaptation scenarios based on deliberative stakeholder dialogue

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

32

In this section, we introduce progress that has been made with approaches to develop local
adaptation scenarios through deliberative stakeholder dialogue, for the Nagara River basin in Gifu
Prefecture, which is one of the model local governments in the SI-CAT program. In the fiscal yearof 2015, as a preliminary study, individual interviews were conducted with the stakeholders (at tenorganizations) who will play a central role in the future of the Nagara River basin. Key issues wereidentified based on the results of the preliminary study, and a larger stakeholder list was developed
corresponding to those issues.
(2) Overview of the methodology
1) Interviews
In the fiscal year of 2016, we conducted individual interviews at 30 organizations about their cognitionof long-term risks such as climate change and societal changes (population decrease, infrastructure
deterioration) and about their intentions for the future, and then analyzed the data thereby obtained
to better understand the stakeholder interests in the key issues (the process is referred to as
stakeholder analysis).
The interviews were conducted from November 2016 to February 2017 based on the needs of themodel local government, Gifu University and Gifu Prefecture.
As the target stakeholders of this study, we chose the central and local governmental bodies
concerned and people in occupations with a high likelihood of being affected by climate change andadaptation measures, as well as business associations and citizen organizations that are alreadyengaged in actions to address various problems in the Nagara River basin. Thirty organizations wereinterviewed (one to three persons from each organization, for a total of 43 persons) as follows: Gifu
prefectural government (fisheries development, satokawa promotion, tourism resources, planningdepartments), river management (1 organization), municipalities in the river basin (6), governmentrelated bodies (3), fishing-related organizations (4), business associations (3), private companies andindividual businesses (5), and citizen organizations (5).
The time for interviews was about an hour per organization, beginning with a general outline ofthis study and information provision on the possible long-term impacts of climate change, for about
ten minutes, followed by an interview of about 50 minutes based on the following questions. As muchas possible, the responses were expected to represent the affiliated organization, but for difficult
questions personal views were also accepted, and the notes were summarized in a way that ensured
the interviewees could not be identified.

33

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

<Questions>
1. Your work description and cognition of the current situation
2. The future vision of your work and the Nagara River basin under climate change and societal
change (business as usual, desirable future, and measures to achieve a desirable future)
3. Key persons in the Nagara River basin who should be interviewed about these issues2) Stakeholder Analysis
A stakeholder analysis is an assessment conducted by a third party to identify before deliberation
what interests various stakeholders might have on a specific issue, what the key issues might be, andwhether or not there is value in actually convening stakeholders for deliberation. To start, interviews
are conducted with individuals and organizations who appear to have an interest, and through a"snowball sampling" approach, the target of interviewees is expanded. The interviews end when no
new stakeholders are mentioned anymore, and next, the results of the interviews are analyzed and aninterests matrix is created to summarize their interests.
For this study, stakeholders were classified into five groups (governmental bodies, fishing-relatedorganizations, business associations, private companies and individual businesses, and citizenorganizations) in terms of similarities and special characteristics of the organizations they were with,and these five groups were used as the horizontal axis in the interests matrix. For the vertical axis,
four categories that derived from the answers to Question 1 "Perception of long term changes," andQuestion 2 "Business-as-usual future," "Desirable future," and "Measures to achieve a desirable future"(hints for adaptation measures). We developed the matrix after carefully reviewing the data fromindividuals several times, then grouped and integrated the data.
(3) Results of the Analysis
The interests matrix is shown in Tables 4-1-1 to 4-1-3. A circle ( ○ ) in the matrix indicates that there
is some form of interest.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

34

Table 4-1-1: Cognition of long term changes
Stakeholders Governmental Fishing-relatedbodiesorganizations

Interests
Diversechanges

RecognizedCauses of changes

Nagara RiverRiver
Estuary barrage
management
Planning frameworks
River
activities

Fisheries
Tourism, leisure businesses

○
○
○
○
○
○
○

○
○
○
○
○
○
○

Privatecompanies
and individual
businesses

Citizenorganizations

○

○
○

○
○

○

○

Business
associations

Forestry works
River-related Agriculture
jobs
Local industries
Private companies
Towns nearriver

People and infrastructure

○

○

○
○
○

○
○

○
○

○
○

Table 4-1-2: Business-as-usual future
Stakeholders Governmental Fishing-relatedbodiesorganizations

Interests

Change in nature
Environmental
Change in societychangeAdaptation
Regional management
Watershed
management River management
Regional infrastructure
Economic,industrial
activity
Livelihoods

35

Private companies
Fisheries
Agricultural, forestry industries

○
○
○
○
○
○
○
○
○

Business
associations

Citizenorganizations

○

○
○

○

RegionIndividuals, families

Privatecompanies
and individual
businesses○

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

○
○
○

○

Table 4-1-3: Desirable future
Stakeholders Governmental Fishing-relatedbodiesorganizations

Interests

Environmental Change in naturechangeChange in society
Individual
livelihoods
Societal
activity(Economic,
industrial
activity)

Individuals, families
RegionRelocation, settlement
Private companies
Fisheries○○

Privatecompanies
and individual
businesses○○

Citizenorganizations

○
○
○

○

Agricultural, forestry industries○

Future work

Nature, people
Interconnections
Human society
within theState of riverwatershed
ChangeRegional economy
Watershedcommunity
management

○
○
○
○
○
○
○

Business
associations

River management

○

○
○
○

○

Regional infrastructure
Tourist area management

○

○

○

○
○
○

○

*Text in red is the concept and information generated when "Desirable future" was considered.

Regarding "Cognition of long term changes," Table 4-1-1 summarizes the responses to thequestion "Do you sense that long-term changes are occurring in your personal livelihood or work?"
All interviewees sensed some form of change; e.g., temperature, rainfall or snowfall patterns, water
quantity, shape of the river, or biology of ayu (sweetfish). In particular, people engaged in work thatinteracts directly with nature, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, appear most likely to be sensitive
to changes. As for the causes of changes, the interviewees stated that they may be more due tocomplex anthropogenic causes than climate change.
The "Business-as-usual future" in Table 4-1-2 refers to the future that would be expected if noaction is taken. Interviewees from governmental bodies smoothly referred to the "business-as-usual
future" arising from the current issues of concern. On the other hand, the business associations,private companies and individual businesses, and citizen organizations tended to refer to the"desirable future" rather than the "business-as-usual future." Regarding fishing, the fishing-related
and government-related interviewees in particular had a variety of interests, including sweetfish, fish
catches, timing of fishing seasons, amount of resource, ukai (cormorant fishing), boat making, aging
of facilities, fishery management, and more. Interviewees from citizen organizations had a broad
perspective encompassing the river basin, and were concerned about the region’s business-as-usual
future.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

36

The "Desirable future" (Table 4-1-3) is the most desirable future freely portrayed by interviewees
with no relation to the present situation and no thought about feasibility. Compared to the "Businessas-usual future," there was a stronger depiction of individual livelihoods for individual, family, orcommunity. Also, the "Desirable future" includes the concept of "Watershed community management"
which is an integration of "Watershed management" and "Tourist area management." In addition, byadding and incorporating "Future work," which has a high social aspect, into "Economic and industrial
activity," the "Desirable future" expanded to include economic and industrial activity as a component of"Societal activity."
Finally, "Interconnections within the watershed" was added as a major component of the "Desirable
future," because interviewees frequently mentioned many interconnections — rivers, mountains, sea,climate, human livelihoods, work, housing, and urban areas, etc.
In terms of special observations relating to individual categories, most government-related
interviewees felt the status quo was desirable in terms of the natural environment. Fishing-related
interviewees thought that changes in nature and society were to be expected, and premised upon thatassumption they imagined the "Desirable future" for fishing, river, and river management. Businessassociation interviewees had a strong interest in the "Individual and family," "Future work," and"Tourist area management." Private company and individual business interviewees appeared to havea steady interest in "Measures to realize a desirable future," beyond the "Desirable future." Citizenorganization interviewees portrayed a clear picture of the "Desirable future" and had a broad scope ofinterests, from nearby "Individual and family" to the "Region and watershed." They also had interests
in categories such as "Future work," "Relocation and settlement," "Relationship with nature," and "Stateof human society," as they were thinking about things that were new and philosophical, as well as
taking practical action.
(4) Discussion
1) Points of Attention
In terms of considering local adaptation scenarios with each stakeholder, here we introduce threeimportant points that should be shared.
First, interviewees often responded that climate change adaptation measures were too vague, so it
is important to provide people with specific examples of environmental changes in the Nagara Riverbasin to enable having an image of "How will my life or work environment change due to climatechange?" Based on that, a good approach would be to have them look at the issues from various
perspectives, asking what impacts each stakeholder might experience, and whether they would beseen as risks or as opportunities. People who live in the mountains responded as follows with a
specific image: "If temperatures increase by X degrees, the place where I live will be the same anelevation of Y meters lower, right? That would mean less snow, which would make life easier, but
ski hills would probably suffer." This type of thinking and talking about change is relatively easy for37

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

people to understand.
Second, it is necessary to summarize regulatory and planning frameworks that underlie aspects
such as basic policies and plans for river infrastructure improvements, as well as decision makers
and decision-making processes, and to present them visually in ways people can understand.
Clarifying the underlying policy constraints helps to define the range of possible choices, whichmakes it possible to have discussions that consider policy feasibility. In particular, for climate change
and societal change, since the assumptions will change, it is probably necessary to revise the actual
regulatory and planning frameworks that are constraining factors.
Where it is difficult to cover regulatory and planning frameworks in all sectors, it is still worth
investigating specific themes. For example, in terms of existing systems, in cases where fishery
management has become difficult due to a decline in the membership of fisherman’s unions, theprefecture is supposed to take over, but where it cannot actually manage, reportedly the area must
be closed to fishing. Going forward, it would be useful to share information and assess the key issues,
among governmental bodies and experts to begin with, about the implications for local communities if
more areas are affected by bans on river use, and how the rivers can be used safely and securely.
Third, in accordance with the above mentioned two points, it would be meaningful to talk about (1)business-as-usual scenarios and (2) desirable future scenarios. Some stakeholders wondered, "Whatwould we do to rebuild from zero in the event of catastrophic damage to the Chubu region from amajor disaster?" Thus, it might be wise to expand the discussion to also develop (3) crisis scenarios.
For themes such as these, stakeholders can speak without temerity, because they can talk about the
future in terms of individual desires, even if the specialized and complex nature of the underlying
information makes it difficult to understand. People don’t need to be held back by past difficult
experiences and current obligations.
If people feel familiar with the themes and sense their importance, after understanding any
underlying assumptions and constraining factors, we believe that by establishing their own objectives,
it becomes easier to think about and act on what needs to be done to achieve them, and it becomes
possible to create realistic and functional, workable local adaptation scenarios.
2) Potential for Use in Development of Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios
By imagining the "Business-as-usual future" and "Desirable future" in the context of climate change
and societal change, and then asking about "Measures to achieve a desirable future," we were able
to identify many key words and sentences that could then be converted into hints of adaptation
measures. All of this is summarized in Table 4-1-4.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

38

Table 4-1-4: Measures to achieve a desirable future (hints of adaptation measures)
Large category
Environmental
changeIndividual
livelihoods

Mediumcategory

Governmental bodies

Change innatureWhat will happen?

Change insociety

Depopulation

Individual andSurvival ability
familyFishing-related Businessorganizations associations
Those who
adapt willsurvive
Humans are
Introduction of
the cause
IT
Those who
adapt willsurvive

Relocation
andsettlement
Privatecompanies

Fisheries

Agriculturaland forestry
industries

Workers’ wisdom
and innovative ideas,
working environment

Number of fishermen

Wisdom andinnovative ideas

Future work

Fieldwork, economic
benefits, attracting
Education,
educational
teaching
institutions, adaptation
tradition,measures contest,
disseminationfrom children to
parents
Fines, penalties, laws
Regulatory
and regulations ifframeworks
seriousPublic land
management

39

How to respond tochangesIssues of creatingcompact cities

New life

RegionSocietal activity

Private companies andCitizen organizationsindividual businesses

Difficulties in
responding tochanges
Fisherman’s
wisdom andinnovativeideas,
occupation,
types of fish

Increasing those who adapt
individually
Response capability, selfsufficiency plus something extra,
zest for living, techniques andphilosophies of the elderly, trial
and error over the centuries,
determined to live

Inheritance of wisdom,
Autonomous capability,
sharing comfort ofcollaborative capability
placesTechniques and philosophiesof the elderly, option to comeMomentumand go, setting down roots,
inexpensive eco-houses
Overseas, business
management, interest
in social problems,
careful top-down

To new jobs

Effective
utilization ofthinned wood

Banned work andtechnology, training
new workers,
improving work
environment,interesting aspects,
low scientific input

Transplanting

Capable ofsupporting
family, finding
Technologicalsales channels,
Connection with technologies,
development
students
urban areas as customers ofincorporating ancientgettingrural areas, nurturing people,
wisdom, new life, newemployedcollaborationindustries
at localbusinesses,
self-fulfillment
Craftworkers’
wisdom andinnovative
ideas

Aims and means, view of forest
industry, nurturing educators,
appealing to religious sense

Difficulty in utilizationof farmland, creativityof youth
Wisdom andinnovative ideas torevise operations,sharing and using
idle land, revising theoperations by Ministryof Land, Infrastructure
and Transport

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Large category

Mediumcategory

Governmental bodies

Fishing-related Businessorganizations associations

Interconnections
Nature andwithin thehumanswatershed

Watershedcommunity
management

Human
society

Measures fromthe perspective of
connections

Changes

Modifying municipality
scope, continuingsearch, changing
business as usual,change as a burden,
rapid change
increasing anxiety

Private companies andCitizen organizationsindividual businesses
No natural disasters,
causal correlation,scientific investigationof causal correlation,
low input
Sustainable society, attraction
Decreasing energy
is people, restructuringconsumption,of transportation systemcreating face-to-face (reconnecting with towns),
relationships
getting more people to takeissues personally
Places where those who notice
can act, governors who will
not nominate themselves
again, connections among
towns, teleworking, personnel
exchanges

Different
perspective
betweenSending out weather academics andServing
information, delivering practitioners,
usho
a usefulmessages while(cormorantfunction
listening, moral
mutually
improvement, features fisherman),universities,of universities
governments,
fishery
cooperatives
Enhancing know-how
and experience, flood
forecasting, timeline,
wide-area evacuation,Riverbuilding ditches,management equipment & facilities
and know-how &experience, revisingplans and operations,mutual understanding
Investment in
human resource
development, sendingout information,Floodconnection with
Regional
control andfamily finances,management
environmental
securing energy,
conservation
mitigation measures,vertically-splintered
governmentorganizations
Renewable energy,
downsizing, public
Regional
facilities, regional
infrastructure infrastructure,irrigation, simulation
Nagara River system,
sales, brand power,
human resource
Globally
development,
Importantcollaborative
Tourist area
Agricultural
approach, bringing
management
Heritagemoney into region,
Systems,
secure tourist spots,
attention
management decision
based on simulation
results

Entrust to
private sector
on a voluntarybasis

Those who can accomplish,
Work with universities people who are settled down
(forestry); to makeand people who migrate,
local issues relevant university professors practicing
to activities
in rural areas, university
researches

Infrastructure
improvements
in depopulated
Sending out and receiving
areas, changing
quality information, bold policy
management bodies by leadersand styles of common
land

Revising operations,
restoring common
land

Solving labor
shortages,
collaboration
withuniversities

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation40

Large category

Mediumcategory

Governmental bodies

Fishing-related Businessorganizations associations

Various stakeholders,
Nagara River system,
simulation technology
Watershed
to prevent major
management
disasters, self-help,
mutual help, publichelp

Thinning offorests

National
strategy

Economic benefits forindividuals, partiallymandatory policies
based on citizens’
good intentions,
all handling byauthorities as
required by law,measures that
go beyond theframeworks ofministries andagencies

Private companies andCitizen organizationsindividual businesses
Thinning of forest,
healthy forest,
investment inmountain areas,
Designing, part-time farmers,
preventative
part-time forestry workers
conservation,planning approach,utilizing database

Mitigation measures,increasing burden of
adaptation measures, Population migration policy,
improvement
energy policy, basic scienceof businesses,
research
eliminating redundant
infrastructure

Specifically, some government-related interviewees commented on the need for flexible reviewsof existing operational plans, as well as for regulatory adjustments. Fishing-related interviewees
mentioned that "only those who have adapted will survive." Business association interviewees had
positive expectations for regional management, along with continuous business expansion as wellas cooperation among industry, government, academia and citizens. Among the private companies
and individual business interviewees, some were involved in new initiatives in which local residents
utilize public lands under the responsibility of a manager. Citizen organization interviewees were able
to articulate a future vision and possessed a considerable amount of local and practical livelihood
knowledge obtained through day-to-day trial and error and hands-on work.
These results suggest that even if stakeholders have no opportunity to think about climate change
in the course of regular living and working, they can examine adaptation measures when they startfrom their current situation and are asked about how to achieve a desirable future.
3) Effectiveness for Future-Oriented Policy Formulation Processes
The stakeholder analysis identified concepts and policies that were not obvious as a simple extensionof the current situation. Specifically, within "Societal activity," which is a core part of the "Desirable
future," the new concepts added included "Education, teaching tradition, dissemination," "Regulatory
frameworks," and "Public land management." Within "Interconnections within the watershed,""Serving a useful function mutually" was added, and within "Watershed community management,""Watershed management" and "National strategy" were added. Conversely, even if future projectionsof climate change were made and responses considered as a simple extension of the present without
considering a "desirable future," it would probably be difficult to achieve any "desirable future,"
because that future is not clear and it is difficult to discover ways to make it happen.
Also, one feature of the Nagara River basin is that some sentiments still remain from what wasat the time the construction of a controversial estuary barrage on the river. Today, forward-looking

41

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

initiatives are being taken from various perspectives regarding the impacts of the dam, but it is stilla sensitive topic, so many people probably still refrain from publicly expressing their true thoughts
about it. However, because we are talking about what could be a very different environment 50 to 100
years in the future, it might be easier for people to make a step forward into new discussions.
4) Expectations and Challenges for Dialogue Space Creation
In interviews, we heard a lot about the need to consider and reexamine various relationships andcreate new ones. For example, there are interconnections between rural and urban, scientist andfisherman, cormorant and cormorant fisherman, upstream and midstream and estuary, flood control
and fishing. Also, fisheries consist not only of fish, fishermen and river authorities; they are alsopremised upon boatmen and boat makers, engine manufacturers and vendors, people involved infood preparation, food processing industries, fish markets, customers, and more. Thus we need to
set up forums for deliberation which have meaning and value as places to meet people with different
affiliations, as opportunities to face each other and look for ways to serve in useful roles.
On the other hand, there are many different stakeholders in the Nagara River basin not only inaffiliation but also in geographical distance, so it may be not so simple to create connections. In
particular, the sharing of perspectives may be very difficult because of the huge variety of perspectives
to see one’s own livelihood, work, and local area, or municipality, watershed, nation, and world. The
world as viewed by a fisherman who catches fish for his own survival and for his family’s wellbeing isprobably very different from the world as viewed by a scientist conducting a global-scale simulation.
There is a need to create forums for mutual understanding of diverse peoples’ perspectives, and to
be willing to accept all the knowledge that the participants have. Local adaptation scenarios will be astarting point to attain this.
(5) Conclusion
This section introduced the results of interviews and stakeholder analysis for the development oflocal adaptation scenarios based on deliberative stakeholder dialogue methods. Going forward, weplan to work with many stakeholders, including experts and local officials, to articulate narrative-style
local adaptation scenarios based on the information obtained so far, following the process shown in
Figure 4-1. Through dialogue with stakeholders, we would like to further deepen our analysis andconsideration, looking at how to best utilize the ideas and wisdom of the people who live and workin the Nagara River basin, how science and technology can contribute to society, and what kinds ofpolicies should be developed by national and local governments.
In closing, we express our heartfelt appreciation to the many people who provided their cooperation.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation42

4-2. Using Online Deliberation to Discover Stakeholder Attitudes on Adaptation
Measures Nationwide(1) Introduction
When trying to utilize projections of climate change in local communities, it is important to understandwhat kinds of attitude changes can be caused by the provision of scientific evidence among
stakeholders and the general public. The potential needs identified in such "arenas" can be usedin technological development and in assessments for communicating about risk. Also, the results
obtained are often summarized into policy recommendations. In terms of climate change, one example
worth mentioning in this regard is the "World Wide Views" held on the same day around the world andused to make policy recommendations from citizens during the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2009 and 2015. Besides this kind ofparticipatory approach, various other methods like consensus conferences and joint fact-finding arealso being applied around the world, but online approaches are also gradually gaining traction as atool to expand the opportunities for participation. Below we introduce examples of online deliberation
on issues in the sectors of agriculture and disaster prevention, where climate change impacts tend to
appear.
(2) Overview of Online Deliberation
We designed the procedures for online deliberation as shown in Figure 4-2-1. This study was
implemented over a period of 14 days from March 11 to 24, 2016. To begin with, as the participantsof this study, for agriculture we identified 84 persons associated with agriculture, from production
to consumption, and for disaster prevention, 86 local residents in the regions where some kind ofwater damages have occurred in recent years. However some were not able to complete the full two
weeks, so eventually 60 persons participated to the end for agriculture and 61 for disaster prevention.
In each sector, they were separated into three groups, with care taken to ensure no imbalance incharacteristics such as age and gender, and moderators guided the proceedings of deliberation. Also,
when technical questions arose from participants, experts for each sector from the SI-CAT Technology
Development Team who were observing the deliberations responded via the moderators.
The expert knowledge provided in both sectors as general materials on climate change was publicly
available from sources such as the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the Japan Centerfor Climate Change Actions, and the Meteorological Agency of Japan. In addition, for agriculture,
participants were presented with local adaptation scenarios which describe future visions of ruralcommunities based on projections of climate change and the impacts on the agricultural sector
and adaptation measures, prepared by Hosei University by integrating expert knowledge and local
knowledge of the stakeholders. For disaster prevention, participants were presented with information
on climate change impacts and future options for adaptation measures, based on examples fromlocal governments nationwide as well as input from experts affiliated with the SI-CAT Technology

43

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Development Team. These materials were prepared using presentation software, and participants
were then able to read and write in discussions via an Internet forum, while accessing the materials
on a website.
1. Screening survey· Setting basic survey items and conducting screening survey (T1)
· Identifying and recruiting of stakeholders based on survey results

2. Preparing materials basedon expert knowledge

Structure of expert panel and identification of key issues

3. Conducting discussion(2weeks)· Self-introduction· Provision of expert knowledge and questionnaire survey before discussion on issue 1 (T2)
· Discussion on issue 1· Provision of expert knowledge and discussion on issue 2· Provision of expert knowledge and discussion on issue 3· Questionnaire survey after discussion (T3)

4. Analysis· Visualization of deliberation based on text-mining analysis of transcripts· Analysis of attitude changes using questionnaire survey data of T1, T2 and T3

Figure 4-2-1: Process of online deliberation(3) Overview of Attitude Change in the Agricultural Sector
In terms of climate change risks, many participants were concerned about events such as rising
average summer temperatures, changes in rainfall, and increased intensity of typhoons. In termsof important policy options, most participants tended to choose measures to address unexpected
extreme weather events and crop breed improvements (Table 4-2-1). Meanwhile, more than a few
participants responded that it would be difficult to prioritize and narrow the policy options, withcomments such as "All policies are important because they all affect each other in agriculture," and "Itis hard to say which one is most important."
Table 4-2-1: Adaptation measures regarded as important in agricultural sector
Number of respondents
Crop breed improvements to withstand the impacts of global warming

13(4)(frost, heat, extreme weather, etc.)
Measures for extreme weather events such as water shortages and torrential rains

15(5)Sending out information on environmental issues

4(2)Supporting new farmers and workers

15(2)Social and environmental improvements to tackle climate change

6(3)Measures for natural disasters such as flood damage and mudslides

5(1)Management of forests, satoyama (traditional managed landscapes) and abandoned farmland

3(2)Nurturing leaders and human resources6(0)All is important and it is hard to choose one.

8(4)Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

44

Figure 4-2-2 shows the degree of agreement with certain adaptation policy options, comparing
participants’ responses before and after deliberation on agricultural sector options, broadly classified
as protection, adaptation, transformation and transferring. The higher the score on the horizontal
axis, the higher degree of agreement. The changes from before to after deliberation in general werelarger for participants who had a low level of involvement with agriculture, and notably, their degreeof agreement decreased for the policy options "We should protect the current form of agriculture(protection)" and "No particular policies are needed." Meanwhile, regardless of the participant’s
relationship with agriculture, there was also a tendency for the degree of agreement to increase forthe policy option "There should be compensation by insurance and mutual aid systems (transferring)."
0

1

2

3

4

0

5

We should protect the current
form (protection)

We should protect the current
form (protection)

We should respond to
the situation accordingly(adaptation)

We should respond to
the situation accordingly(adaptation)

We should relocate or
retreat (transformation)

We should relocate or
retreat (transformation)

There should be compensation
by insurance and mutual aid
systems (transferring)

There should be compensation
by insurance and mutual aid
systems (transferring)No particular policies
are needed

No particular policies
are needed
Before deliberation

After deliberation

1

2

Before deliberation

3

4

5

After deliberation

Figure 4-2-2: Changes in degree of agreement with agricultural adaptation policies (participants with highinvolvement in agriculture in left graph, low involvement in right graph)(4) Overview of Attitude Change in the Disaster Prevention Sector
As for the changes in participants’ attitudes before and after deliberation, there was greaterawareness of the increased frequency and magnitude of every category of impacts (crops, water
resources, health, wind and water damage, ecosystems, livelihood damage, and sea level rise) after
deliberation. In particular, awareness of the risks relating to water resources, that is, "Water shortages
and water quality deterioration" was low before deliberation, but became higher afterwards. The
awareness of an increase in the magnitude of wind and water damage was high both before and after
deliberation, and this is evident from the fact that many participants mentioned during the deliberationthat they anticipated torrential rains and typhoons.
Also, regarding protection, adaptation, and transformation policies, we provided 18 specificadaptation measures that could be implemented by local governments and 19 by individuals, andasked participants to rate their degree of agreement for implementation (the lower the score,
the higher the degree of agreement). An excerpt of the results is presented in Table 4-2-2. For
most of the adaptation measures, the ratings shifted toward agree, but the attitude shifted toward45

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

disagree to local government measures #5 (Natural environment protection) and #15 (Fundamental
transformation measure such as relocation or retreat), and individual measure #18 (Move away fromfrequently damaged areas). On the whole, agreement for local government measures was strong,but after deliberation, the degree of change was greater for individual measures. Finally, among local
government measures the degree of agreement was highest for #5 (Natural environment protection)
before deliberation, but afterward, agreement to the three measures #8 to #10 (Adaptive adaptation
measures) became the highest, while agreement to #11 (One’s self-help measures during a disaster)
became the highest both before and after deliberation among individual measures.
Table 4-2-2: Degree of agreement for adaptation measures in disaster prevention sector
Local governments
5.
Natural environment protection measures
6.
Promoting preservation of traditional culture
8.
General adaptive adaptation measures
9.
Enhancing the lifeline functions
10. Enhancement and improvement of initial responses such as shelters
15. Fundamental transformation measures such as relocation or retreat
Individuals
11. One’s self-help measures during a disaster18. Move away from frequently damaged areas

Before deliberation After deliberation
1.95
2.05
2.59
2.59
2.30
1.84
2.11
1.84
2.21
1.84
2.43
2.44
2.15
3.25

1.80
3.36

Thus, we can conclude that there were increases in the degree of agreement to climate change
adaptation policies in the disaster prevention sector (especially adaptive measures), and in awarenessof the greater magnitude of disasters, and that these increases were a result of participating indeliberation. Meanwhile, the degree of agreement to transformation measures such as relocation or
retreat decreased; that is, through deliberation, the participants gained an awareness of challenges
involved in implementation of the measures. This suggests that it might be necessary to treat
transformation measures separately from other measures.
(5) Overview of Structure of Deliberation on Both Sectors of Agriculture and Disaster Prevention
Figure 4-2-3 provides a view of the structure of deliberation regarding the agricultural sector byusing text-mining. For further details of methodology, please see Chapter 3, Section 3. Near Issue"Climate change impacts on Japan" words include "Warming," "Experts" and "Causes"; near "Japan 30
years later affected by climate change" words include "Typhoons" and "Crop varieties"; near "Futurescenarios" words include "Responses," "Apples" and "Farmers"; and near "Policy options I think aremost important" words include "National government" and "Measures" are allocated. From theseobservations it can be surmised that the content of deliberation evolved from climate change causes
and impacts, to specific impacts and responses, and then to adaptation measures at the national level.
A similar trend is evident with the disaster prevention sector.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation46

2ApplesCrop breed
improvements
Producers
Farmers

3. Japan 30 years later affected by climate changeApplesHobbies

Crops
Typhoons

Snow

Production
1
Vegetables
DamageCrop varieties
Scenarios

People Crops Nagano Prefecture
Local
ClimateHumans
Projections
Information
Impressions
Agriculture
Current situation
Impacts
Measures Occurrence0-1.5 National government -0.5Understanding Causes
0.5 Temperature
1.5
ChangesGlobal warming
Environment
Climate change
Materials
Position
Japan
ActionEarthSpecific
ExpertsLife-1
Consumers
Reponses

4. Future scenarios

FutureSelf

Self-introduction

Winter

2.5

3.5

4.5

1. Self-introduction

Awareness-2

2. Climate change impacts on Japan
Community

5. Options I think are most important-3

Opinion
6. Concluding remarks-4

Participation-5

Figure 4-2-3: Structure of deliberation on adaptation in agricultural sector(6) Conclusion
As seen above, the attitudes of participants shifted through the process of deliberation, and thechange tended to be larger particularly for participants who had little prior knowledge of, or
involvement in, the issue. This can come from the provision of expert knowledge and discussion
among participants. In the future, we plan to clarify points such as how to provide information tominimize misunderstanding, and how to enable people to use tools like the SI-CAT app (a web based
tool to visualize the impact of climate change) most effectively.

4-3. Overseas Case Study on Mainstreaming of Climate Science andTechnology: NECAP(1) Introduction
Below we take a look at role-play simulation, one among the social technologies that take broad viewof the relationship of society and technology and can contribute to the resolution of societal problems
through dialogue and the cooperation of diverse and wide-ranging stakeholders. We introduce theoutcomes of the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP), a project in the United States that47

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

dealt with mainstreaming of climate change adaptation measures. The description below is based on
our own literature review and in-person interview with Prof. Lawrence Susskind at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (Environmental Policy and Planning Group in the Department of Urban Studies
and Planning) on September 15, 2016.
Role-play simulation (negotiation simulation) is a policy development support tool in which
participants conduct a negotiation experiment based on information, rules, and roles they have been
given and perform as the various actors that make up a simulated community. The MIT-Harvard
Public Disputes Program has had many achievements, and in Japan as well one can find examples
where these simulations have been applied by the authors in environmental conflicts associated withthe siting of wind power turbines.
(2) Steps to Apply for Climate Change Adaptation
NECAP as part of a public research project by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) in the United States, a project proposal led by MIT was selected and then implemented from2012 to 2014. This project targeted four local governments in the New England region, and was
an attempt to look at mainstreaming of climate change adaptation measures, based on scientificknowledge from NOAA-affiliated organizations and the University of New Hampshire. MIT played a
key role by raising awareness of stakeholders through the role-play simulation with the scientificknowledge. Here we introduce a case study from the town of Wells in the state of Maine. The steps to
apply these techniques are shown in Figure 4-3-1.
(3) Stakeholder Assessment
To begin, in the stakeholder assessment (stakeholder analysis), individual interviews were conductedwith about 20 stakeholders, including selected town officials, public contractors, business owners,
environmental organizations, and property owners. This method was introduced in Section 4-1 for thecase of Gifu Prefecture in Japan. The main results for the NECAP case are described here. First, theclimate change risks attracting most concern included beach erosion, the loss of coastal property due
to sea level rise, and increases in severe storms. Second, many stakeholders believed that climatechange would have negative impacts on coastal tourism, and this could lead to a deterioration of
infrastructure and economic problems for the town as a whole. Third, regarding adaptation measures,stakeholders had the highest interest in flood risk management, and supported the protection ofcritical infrastructure using regulations as a flood prevention measure, and the construction of
breakwaters as a fundamental solution. Fourth, the biggest obstacle in terms of promoting adaptation
measures was a lack of knowledge among citizens about climate change and that people did notactually believe climate change existed. However, public opinion surveys found that residents' concern
about climate change was higher than the stakeholders expected. Fifth, there was a high level ofconcern that the high cost of many adaptation measures could be an obstacle.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation48

(4) Risk Assessments
Next, for the risk assessments, the University of New Hampshire calculated two emissions scenarios(high and low) for each local government, with short-term (2010 – 2039), medium-term (2040–2069),
and long-term (2070–2099) average annual minimum and maximum temperatures, numbers ofdays of extreme heat and extreme cold temperatures per year, average rainfall, days of extreme
precipitation, and sea level rise, etc. Then, based on these climate change projections, potential risks(e.g., floodplains, sea level rise, hurricanes) were shown on a map along with the adaptation measuresthat could be taken (e.g., for flood risk, adaptation measures were shown in terms of the community,
infrastructure, and the environment). In addition, qualitative descriptions were provided for risks
and adaptation measures relating to heat waves and higher temperatures, impacts on tourism andfinances, droughts, and ecosystems.
(1) Stakeholder Assessment(2) Risk Assessments• For six weeks from fall of 2012
• Conducted individual interviews on the awareness ofclimate change risks with about 20 stakeholders,
including selected town officials, public contractors,
business owners, environmental organizations, andproperty owners.

• From fall of 2012 to early 2013•Showed climate change projections, factors ofvulnerability and risks, and potential adaptation options.

(3) Public Opinion Survey (first)•May, 2013
•Conducted a questionnaire survey with 100 citizens, selected by random sampling, on the awareness of climate change risks andeffects, and attitude toward priority adaptation measures.

(4) Role-play Simulation• For seven months from June, 2013
• Based on the results of Step (1), set interests and roles of six stakeholder organizations representing a fictitious town, climatechange projections, six proposals on adaptation measures (construction of seawalls, ordinances requiring structures to beresilient to water damage, infrastructure improvements, incentives to construct inland, etc.), and conducted a simulation inwhich stakeholders actually acted based on the settings and decided on the priority adaptation measures.
• Held eight times (six times in town, two times in neighboring communities) with the total participants of 115 persons (averageattendance of 14 persons each time, in two groups, with about six persons per group).

(5) Public Opinion Survey (second)• May, 2014
• Conducted the same survey again as (3) with 100 citizens including the participants of Step (4) selected by random sampling.

Figure 4-3-1: Process of the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP)49

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Note that the scientific knowledge prepared in parallel with the stakeholder assessment was notpresented to the stakeholders during the assessment, but it was used when preparing scenarios
for role-play simulations. The contents of the scenarios are as follows. First, Wells can expect
temperature increases, increased precipitation, and rising sea levels due to climate change. Wells is
likely to experience more days of extreme heat and less extreme cold. Second, Wells faces increased
flooding from intense precipitation events, coastal storm surges, and sea level rise, and over thelong term more than 1,900 parcels of land will be at moderate to high risk of flooding. Third, thehigher likelihood of heat waves and heat events may increase the risk of drought. Fourth, changes intemperature and salinity in marine waters could damage the area’s marine habitats. Fifth, degradationof regional beaches, coastal wetlands, and other natural areas would threaten the tourism industry.
Sixth, residents, public infrastructure, and private properties could all face significant risks fromsevere storms and flooding.
(5) Role-play Simulation
The typical process of a role-play simulation is shown in Figure 4-3-2. Based on the two assessment
findings, scenarios reflecting the situation in Wells were depicted in general instructions as well as
confidential instructions for each actor. The assumed situation was that the local government wasconsidering implementation of climate change adaptation measures and asking stakeholders tocomment on the adaptation measures from the perspective of increasing the resilience of the coastal
area.
Part 1 (advance preparation): about 30 minutes· Explanation by organizer on the purpose of simulation and the background of topics to be covered· Distribution of general instructions and confidential instructions to participants· Responses to pre-survey=> Organizing background information of the topics, understanding the roles of actors and Best Alternative to NegotiatedAgreement (BATNA) points, and examining negotiation strategies.

Part 2 (conducting negotiation): about 60 minutes
Part 3 (follow-up after negotiation): about 30 minutes· Responses to post-survey· Debriefing=> Discussing what they had learned from the negotiation while presenting what was agreed, sharing the secrets behind theroles they played and negotiation strategies, and exchanging comments and questions.

Figure 4-3-2: Process of role-play simulation

Six types of stakeholders were defined, including citizens, state and federal governments, businessowners, and environmental groups, etc. In terms of adaptation measures, there were six alternatives(construction of seawalls, ordinances requiring structures to be resilient to water damage,infrastructure improvements, incentives to construct inland, etc.), and for each one, the future

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation50

risks and costs were shown in detail. The participants were assigned their roles as the respective
stakeholders, and after all received town maps and specific language related to climate change
adaptation, and basic explanations of the risk assessment findings, they then received confidential
instructions focused on their specific roles. During about one hour of role-playing, the participants
were required to consider ideas that at least five out of six stakeholders could agree on, and in thedebriefing, there was a discussion about how the things they had learned with this experience could
be applied in their own communities. The total of 115 participants included not only individuals fromthe stakeholder assessment, but also persons who responded to notices in various media including
local papers, e-mail, Facebook, flyers, and word of mouth. Meetings were held eight times (six times
in town, two times in neighboring communities) over the course of seven months (average attendance
was 14 persons each time, in two groups, with about six persons per group).
The major findings were as follows. First, participants' perspectives were enriched, and thesimulation helped them think about climate change through the eyes of others. Second, theparticipants showed an increased level of concern about climate change and assigned increased
responsibility to actors at the local level. Third, a majority of participants felt that planning decisions
for climate adaptation should be integrated into the daily work of local government. Fourth, the main
challenges identified by participants in rank order, include: (1) challenges associated with reaching
agreement among so many stakeholders; (2) lack of public interest or concern about climate change
in Wells; and (3) budget limitations. Fifth, participants generally expressed a strong interest inundertaking a collaborative problem-solving process, and the suggested process solution was toeducate the public about climate change risks and adaptation options. Therefore, sixth, the confidence
gap between what people hoped their government would do and what they thought would actually bedone was narrowed.
(6) Conclusion
The NECAP project has already ended, but we have not heard of any particular outcomes in planningclimate change adaptation strategies by the local government reflecting the outcomes of the roleplay simulations. However, one could say that the fact that stakeholders were able to understand theperspective of specific climate change adaptation measures in order to reduce long term risks andaddress problems for sustainable community development was in itself effective in terms of creating
a model for collaborative decision-making. In the future, while incorporating several elements ofsocial technologies like those used here, our team intends to use co-design for mainstreaming ofclimate science and technology in ways that are meaningful for local communities, working together
with experts, governments and other stakeholders.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

4-4. Planning for Adaptive Management in Climate Adaptation Strategies: Procedures and Results(1) Adaptive Management in Climate Adaptation Strategies: Introduction
Climate change adaptation measures can be divided into responses to current and short-term
impacts that have a high level of certainty, and responses to medium and long-term impacts that areassociated with uncertainty in the magnitude of their impacts and the timing of occurrence. Responses
to the former may be already be in the process of being implemented or considered even if notseen as adaptation, but in terms of additional adaptation measures that should be implemented, thelatter medium- and long-term responses are important. However, planning methods for adaptation
to uncertain medium- or long-term impacts are not sufficient. In this context, the need for "adaptive
management" has been pointed out in the area of climate change adaptation.
In Japan, adaptive management was originally introduced for uses such as fisheries resources
where the resource quantities are uncertain, and for the management of natural ecosystems where
there was only a limited understanding of phenomena (Matsuda 2008). Regarding climate change
adaptation, the need for adaptive management was proposed due to the need to shift from reactive
to proactive adaptation to the impacts of climate change (Mimura 2012). Researchers created atheoretical framework for climate change adaptation and presented an approach for adaptive
management of medium- and long-term impacts (Shirai et al. 2014).
(2) Research Trends in Adaptive Management for Climate Change Adaptation
Chapters 12 and 15 of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) touch upon the importance of adaptive management based on impact projections.
Chapter 18 says that responses to impacts through existing organizations and management plans in
the water sector in North America are examples of adaptive management. Similarly, Chapter 18 of the
IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report explains that adaptive management is "the ‘act, then learn, then act
again’ approach."
The term "adaptive management" eventually appeared in the glossary of the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report, defined like this: "A process of iteratively planning, implementing, and modifying strategies for
managing resources in the face of uncertainty and change. Adaptive management involves adjusting
approaches in response to observations of their effect and changes in the system brought on by
resulting feedback effects and other variables."For examples of planning based on concepts of adaptive management, one can look at the Delta
Program for flood risk management in the Netherlands, and the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan in the UK.
Within Japan, we cannot see research outcomes or practical examples of adaptive management in thearea of climate change adaptation.
As indicated above, in many countries, research and practical efforts are being made in adaptive
management for climate change adaptation in areas such as water resources, water disasters,

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

52

natural ecosystems, and measures to address extreme heat. In Japan, however, related research andconcrete planning examples are almost non-existent. Also, with regards to adaptive management
for climate change adaptation in other countries, methods are not easy to adopt as policy because
they have been treated as research, and consequently developed as complex planning methods.
Adaptive management planning methods do require theoretical development, but they also require
methodologies that are capable of being implemented by the bodies responsible for implementing
adaptation measures (i.e., local governments).
(3) Planning Framework for Adaptive Management to Climate Change
Figure 4-4 shows a planning framework for adaptive management for climate change adaptation,
based on papers listed in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report and later papers. Here we describe five
key features of the framework.
First, adaptive management is divided into two phases, the planning phase and implementation
phase. The implementation phase involves not only implementation, but as shown in Steps 3 to 5
in Figure 4-4, it also includes elements related to learning, communication, monitoring, feedback
to science, and these elements are the planning target of adaptive management. Where adaptive
management is not being considered, in many cases these elements are not made sufficiently
specific in advance but only applied or reviewed periodically or as required while measures are being
implemented. But with adaptive management, there are merits to learning and monitoring, so it isimportant to adequately plan for them.
Second, the alternative adaptation measures considered in Step 1B (Establishment and assessmentof alternative adaptation measures) include some that are immediately and seriously implemented,
but these can also include measures that are introduced on a trial basis and the results observed, or
measures with gradual introduction, or measures that start first with research and development due
to problems with practical feasibility. One feature of this planning method is that it includes measuresthat are not implemented, although preparations are made for them as alternatives from the medium
and long-term perspective.
Third, the consideration of four elements is done with a careful effort for consistency: Step 1A(Development and review of scientific information), Step 1B (Definition and assessment of alternative
adaptation measures), Step 4A (Preventive action by the selection and implementation of appropriate
alternative measures), and Step 4B (Monitoring and assessment of projections, assessment ofeffectiveness of implementation of alternative measures, etc.). In other words, in the planningphase, the bodies involved in both the science and the adaptation measures work together on thedevelopment of alternative proposals and their assessment. In the implementation phase as well,based on monitoring results, the bodies involved in both science and adaptation measures work
together on the implementation of preventive measures in the alternative plan that was prepared.
Also, it is important to measure the effectiveness of implementation of the alternatives that were53

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

implemented.
Fourth, Step 1A (Development and review of scientific information) and Step 1B (Definition andassessment of alternative adaptation measures) both emphasize not only climate change but also thesocioeconomic dimension. In other words, the impacts of climate change are not only from climatechange, so impact assessments are defined to also include social change, and responsive adaptation
measures are established and assessed accordingly. Also, adaptation measures are established not
only to increase the adaptive capacity of society and the economy in the sense of treating symptoms,
but also in the sense of improving socioeconomic sensitivity. In other words, as shown by Shirai etal. (2014), alternative adaptation measures are established with three levels in mind: protection,
adaptation and minimization of impacts, and transformation and reconstruction. Protection, adaptationand minimization of impacts correspond to improvements in adaptive capacity, while transformation
and reconstruction correspond to improvements in sensitivity.

Planning phase of adaptive management

1A. Development and review
of scientific information· Climate change projection· Social change projection· Assessment of impacts andadaptation measures

1B. Establishment andassessment of alternative
adaptation measures

2. Development of plans foradaptive management ofadaptation measures*Plans for 3, 4A, 4B and 5

Implementation phase of adaptive
management

4A. Preventive action by the selection
and implementation of
appropriate alternative measures
5. Feedback to scienceand planning*Including unimplemented plans

3. Learning and information
sharing of stakeholders

4B. Monitoring and assessment ofprojections, assessment ofeffectiveness of implementation ofalternative measures, etc.

Figure 4-4: Process of adaptive management in climate adaptation strategies

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

54

(4) Pilot Study of Planning with Adaptive Management to Prevent Heat Damage to Paddy Rice
Based on the planning framework established, we conducted a modest pilot for this planning phase,regarding heat damage to paddy rice in Saitama Prefecture.
1) Preventive Planning Through Selection and Implementation of Appropriate Adaptation Measures
Regarding prevention of impacts through selection and implementation of appropriate alternative
measures (corresponds to Step 4A in Figure 4-4), the results of setting guidelines for adaptive
management are shown below. In the short term (until about 2030), assuming a potential maximum
temperature increase of at least 1ºC, the following adaptation measures would be implemented (orprepared for).
(a) Aim for effective diffusion of crop season shifting and fertilizer management during
implementation. When doing so, consider providing assistance if barriers arise such as older age
of farmers in implementation of adaptation measures.
(b) Introduce weather prediction information systems, revise crop mix, encourage considerationof shifts to collaborative systems with consumers and sustainable management systems, andconduct trials to test such systems.
(c) Continue promoting the development of heat resistant crop varieties, which takes time fordevelopment and preparation.
In the medium and long term, assuming a potential maximum temperature increase of at least
2ºC around 2040 and maximum over 4ºC by around 2090, promote the following gradual actions for
implementation or preparation toward implementation.
(a) Introduce heat-resistant crop varieties and associated branding, and encourage farmers to
restructure business operations.
(b) If preparations are begun in order to shift to advanced water management methods and to othercrops, and climate change advances rapidly (or is projected to do so), besides shifting those crops
to heat-resistant varieties, promote an early shift to other crops.
2) Planning for Learning, Monitoring, Feedback
The following guidelines are set for learning and information sharing of stakeholders (corresponds
to Step 3 in Figure 4-4), monitoring and assessment of projections, assessment of implementation
effects of alternatives (Step 4B), and implementation guidelines for feedback to science and planning(Step 5).
(a) Regarding learning and information sharing of stakeholders, it is necessary to create the attitude
for awareness raising and to work autonomously to conduct information sharing with government

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

personnel and farmers, processing and logistics stakeholders, including implementation
guidelines for adaptation measures indicated in (1) as well as monitoring and scientific feedback
relating to adaptive management. For this, offer ongoing opportunities for information sharing
and awareness-raising to uninterested farmers, including regular council meetings on adaptation
measures in the region. Create posts for coordinator positions with responsibility for organizationbuilding and organizational operations, so that even when the government’s managers responsible
are transferred, everyone can understand adaptive management approaches and pass on theimplementation guidelines.
(b) Regarding monitoring and alternative selection, it is important to set the monitoring items andmake decisions on the alternative selection guidelines based on them. Monitoring items include
temperature increases and future trends and socioeconomic trends such as trends of farmmanagement and consumers, and trends in other producing areas, plus the effects of adaptation
measures implemented based on the directions established in (1), and also farmer understanding
and motivation, etc. Alternatives are selected based on consensus with stakeholders
comprehensively considering the results of the above monitoring, and from the perspective of theneed to introduce alternatives based on the pace of impacts appearing, and from the perspectiveof ease of introduction such as practicality and versatility at that point.
(c) Regarding feedback to science and planning, if there is a gap when comparing the projectedversus measured values of climate change, or the calculated versus measured values of effects
of adaptation measures, it is necessary to elucidate the factors and to promote a review of themethodology for climate projection and impact assessment. To do so, maintain close relations
between scientists and the community, such as by having scientists participate in local councils
on adaptation in the region. The plans should be reviewed regularly (about every five years).
Also, based on the scientific opinions provided as feedback, depending on when need arises fromscientific requests, in some cases speed up the review timing, and in other cases delay the review
timing.
References:· Nobuo Shirai, Tanaka Mitsuru, Tamura Makoto, Yasuhara Kazuya, Harasawa Hideo, Komatsu Toshimitsu. 2014. "Kikohendo tekio no rironteki wakugumi no settei to gutaika no shiko" (Building and Verification of a Theoretical Framework
for Climate Change Adaptation: Strategy of Climate Change Adaptation), Environmental Science , 27(5), 313-323.
· Mimura Nobuo. 2012. "Shorai no risk e no yokenteki taio no jyuyosei" (Importance of proactive responses to future risks).

Civil Engineering (Japan Society of Civil Engineers), 97(3), 137.
· Matsuda Hiroyuki. 2008. "Seitai Risk Nyumon" (Introduction to biological risk). Kyoritsu Shuppan , 228 pp.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

56

4-5. Creating an Adaptation Community as an Entry Point to"Local Studies in Climate Change"(1) "Local Studies in Climate Change"
Shirai (2016) writes that "At the regional level there is growing tendency to mention climate adaptationin planning, but in many cases the style is simply to list up related measures that correspond toadaptation measures from related departments." He also points out that "In many cases they are
only identified as adaptation measures within the government, and are just at the beginning stageof preparation as basic guidelines, and they do not go as far as considering information from future
impact projections or being detailed considerations of policies for action."
Thus, what is needed is a bottom up approach to complement the top down approach, which starts
with scientific knowledge in the form of future projection results. The bottom up approach emphasizes
the learning of local government personnel and local community members, local businesses, which
are the actor who actually implement adaptation measures. By mobilizing local knowledge at a levelthat is close to the community, the further details of adaptation measures are considered while
also empowering local entities and sharing information on the impacts that are locally specific. The
establishment of this bottom up approach will become the driving force to become more specific withadaptation plans.
A bottom-up approach could also be referred to as Community Based Adaptation. CBA is a learning
process that encourages local actors to take the lead and encourages self-initiated adaptation.
As a bottom-up approach or CBA, Shirai (2015) describes an approach that starts with "Local Studies
in Climate Change" concept that he has proposed. "Local Studies in Climate Change" is a learning
program for residents and others involved in climate change impacts and adaptation at the community
level, and is an entry point for practical citizen-led adaptation processes. It was developed and piloted
as a project supported by the Ministry of the Environment program entitled "S-8 Comprehensive Studyon Impact Assessment and Adaptation for Climate Change.""Local Studies in Climate Change" involve investigating examples of impacts of climate changethat are occurring locally, then sharing that information, and co-designing adaptation measures.
"Local Studies" ( jimoto-gaku in Japanese) is a resident-led local community development approachthat leads people think about how to serve the local community by investigating the assets is in theregion (community resources), and was piloted by Tetsuro Yoshimoto of Minamata City (Kumamoto
Prefecture). Referring to this Minamata-style of "Local Studies," Shirai decided use the name of "Local
Studies in Climate Change" (Kiko Hendo no Jimoto-Gaku ).
(2) Pilot Study of "Local Studies in Climate Change"
In fiscal 2015, this pilot was implemented in seven areas (four prefectures, three cities), as "Local
Studies in Climate Change." The prefectures were Aichi, Tottori, Miyazaki, and Okinawa, and the project
was implemented in the form of trainings for personnel at each prefecture’s Japan Center for Climate

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Change Actions. For the cities, it was implemented as a project of the Kinki Region Environmental
Office, and the cities were Otsu in Shiga Prefecture, Takarazuka in Hyogo Prefecture, and the Tanba
area of Hyogo Prefecture. Participants were members of the general public who responded to
public announcements from the respective prefectural and municipal governments. The numbers ofparticipants in the seven regions are shown in Table 4-5-1.
Table 4-5-1: Number of participants in the regions Unit: persons
First
workshops

Secondworkshops

Aichi
TottoriMiyazakiOkinawa
Total
Otsu

21
6
44
12
83
35

22
12
13
12
83
19

Participatedin bothworkshops
12
4
10
6
83
18

Takarazuka

21

23

13

Tanba area
Total
Total

23
79
162

13
55
138

13
44
127

Prefectures

CitiesAt the first workshops, PowerPoint presentations were made on the regional impacts of climatechange, adaptation measures, and an explanation of a survey sheet about impact examples. The
presentations included definitions of adaptation measures, the need for adaptation measures, thestate of introduction of adaptation measures, basic approaches to adaptation measures, good and bad
kinds of adaptation, and actual examples of local studies in climate change.
The second workshops included a review of the first workshop, reporting of information on climatechange impact assessments gathered previously, and then discussions in groups of four to six
persons each. Discussions included (1) examples of impacts, causes of socioeconomic impacts, andadaptation measures they would like to add, (2) three adaptation measures that deserved the highest
priority, and (3) budget allocation ratios for adaptation and mitigation as well as the rationale for thoseratios. The groups summarized their discussions using sticky notes and poster paper, and then eachgroup reported back to the larger meeting.
(3) Effectiveness for Identifying Impact Examples and Socioeconomic Factors
After tallying the examples of impacts gathered in responses from the seven regions, the mostcommon responses were changes in flora and fauna, impacts on agriculture, water- and sedimentrelated disasters, impacts on living and livelihoods, and health impacts including heat stroke.
Also, socioeconomic factors were identified as causal factors for the manifestation of climate change
impacts, and included built infrastructure, forests and satoyama (traditional managed landscapes),

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

58

lifestyle awareness, and local communities. Shirai et al. (2012) defined adaptation measures as"improvements in specified factors of vulnerability to climate change impacts" and endeavored toclassify them (socioeconomic factors). They classified them as land use factors such as urbanizationand lack of forest management, and local community factors such as the aging of society anddeterioration of social capital. The responses from each of the seven local studies produced similar
results.
(4) Awareness Change of Participants
For each assessment item, participants were asked to use a six-point ordinal scale to assign scores,
which were later analyzed. The scoring was as follows: "Completely agree" (6 points), "Agree" (5points), "Slightly agree" (4 points), "Don’t really agree" (3 points), "Disagree" (2 points) and "Completely
disagree" (1 point).
Table 4-5-2 shows the results of a t-test corresponding to the awareness change before and after
the two workshops. Below is a summary of the results of awareness change, before and after the firstworkshop, before and after the second workshop, after the first and before the second, and before thefirst and after the second.
Regarding awareness changes from before to after the first workshop, scores increased significantly
due to participation in the workshop, for awareness of impacts, support for the necessity of mitigation
and adaptation measures, and intention to act on adaptation. Within awareness of impacts, inparticular, the score rose significantly in particular for the comment, "In the future, society will be
more vulnerable due to socioeconomic factors." This change could be a result of a presentation at
the first workshop, which said, "The impacts of climate change will increase due not only to changes
in climate factors but also to socioeconomic factors. For example, heat stroke patients include many
seniors, and this is not only due to higher temperatures but also an increase in patients as a resultof the aging of society and weakening of neighborhood connections." Also, the intention to act on
adaptation increased significantly, and mitigation intention also increased, but not significantly. This
too may be a result of the fact that the main focus of explanations of new measures in the lectures
was about adaptation.
Regarding awareness changes from before to after the second workshop, major increases inscores were for awareness of current impacts on the community, future impacts on the community,and vulnerability due to socioeconomic factors. Consideration of adaptation measures that involved
sharing of impact examples in the workshops and improvements in socioeconomic factors are
believed to have resulted in increased awareness on these points. The intention to act on adaptation
also increased from before to after the second workshop. However, the increase was less than theincrease from before to after the first workshop.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

(5) Future Topics
From the results of implementation in the seven regions, "Local Studies in Climate Change" areeffective for identifying examples of impacts and local knowledge about socioeconomic factors, and
we also confirmed that they promote participants’ learning about climate change.
However, when seen as a CBA process, the achievements of "Local Studies in Climate Change"
are limited. For example, there are inadequacies in the comprehensiveness of examples of impacts,socioeconomic factors, and the scientific basis. Also, the learning effect and awareness of impacts
are effective, but when it comes to forming the intention to take action on adaptation or mitigation
measures, further learning processes are required. In addition, as the rebound of changes inawareness between the first and second workshops is large, and there is probably a rebound after thesecond workshop as well, it would be important to establish learning processes that raise adaptive
capacity on an ongoing basis, in an effort to securely establish the awareness gains.
In this respect, "Local Studies in Climate Change" should be seen as an entry point for the ongoing
implementation of CBA processes.
If we look at these processes, "Local Studies in Climate Change" are at an initial stage in thedevelopment of local adaptation measures by the bottom-up approach, and are a way to share local
knowledge relating to examples of local impacts and socio-economic factors. However, this local
knowledge does not have a scientific basis, so it is crucial at the next stage to incorporate a scientificreview of the local knowledge thereby obtained. In contrast to the top-down approach, by using local
knowledge as the starting point, there is meaning in this approach in terms of identifying detailed
examples of impacts and socio-economic factors that are closely connected to the local area, butscientific reviews involving scientists then become essential.
Next, the task is to share the integrated contents of local knowledge and expert knowledge withlocal actors and create competency among local actors. Then, local actors themselves can consider
adaptation action plans and proposals for local governments. Local governments should receive them,and then prepare local government adaptive management plans for climate change adaptation. The
above steps can be seen as a formative process for adaptation plans, with "Local Studies in Climate
Change" as an entry point.
This formative process can at the same time be an active learning process for local actors. Throughthe sharing of local knowledge, the actors can see climate change impacts and adaptation as local
challenges, so this becomes a lesson in the reality of the impacts (directly personal). By also obtaining
scientific knowledge, actors can have a more precise understanding, and by preparing actionplans, get a new self-directed perspective on concrete actions. Next is to get into practical action incooperation with local governments. In this way, these efforts are meaningful as a formative process
for the development of adaptive capacity through learning.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

60

Table 4-5-2: Awareness change before and after the two workshops (corresponding t-test)
Assessment item
a Recent impacts on the world and Japan
Awareness of impacts

b Recent impacts on my community

Before vs after Before vs after After 1st vsBefore 1st vs1st
2nd
before 2nd
after 2nd
0.088
0.083
-0.297-0.162
**
*
b
0.348

108

64

74

** 0.364** -0.397** 0.459

74

63

74

d

Mitigation intention

0.172** -0.056-0.188-0.095

134

107

64

74

*

0.243

** -0.359** 0.189

Future vulnerability due to socioeconomic 0.552
efactors
134

**

0.257

a

Government-led mitigation measures are 0.128
needed.
133*bBusiness-led mitigation measures areneeded.

c

Mitigation measures by community andfamily are needed.

c Future impacts on the world and Japand Future impacts on my community

d

135

107

**

**

108

62

72

0.037

-0.169-0.141

107

65

71

** 0.194** -0.200

0.139

108

65

72

0.203

** 0.037

133

108

65

0.092

0.019

-0.292

131

108

65

0.174

0.102

-0.308

132

108

65

72

Preventive/proactive mitigation measures 0.167
are needed.
132

0.102

-0.246-0.056

108

65

72

0.130

0.102

-0.292

Mitigation measures by each of us areneeded.

131

Government-led adaptation measures are 0.075
aneeded.
133
0.165

*

72

72

Adaptation intention

108

65

73

0.065

-0.172

0.000

64

73

-0.138

0.068

65

73

-0.1850.000

Adaptation measures by community andfamily are needed.

0.195** 0.055

133

109

d

Adaptation measures by each of us areneeded.

0.139

*

132

108

65

0.138

0.110

-0.328

130

109

64

0.115

0.110

-0.292

131

109

65

0.237

** 0.130

131

108

*

-0.33865*** -0.125-0.082cg I want to do some adaptation measures.

**-0.208

**

73

65

108

Preventive/proactive adaptation
measures are needed.

**-0.181-0.123133

e Drastic adaptation measures are needed.

-0.014

108

Business-led adaptation measures areneeded.

*

*

0.056

b

0.144

-0.231

*

74
0.417

0.227

g I want to do some mitigation measures.

f64-0.548132

e Drastic mitigation measures are needed.
f

0.148

**

72

**

-0.194**-0.282

72*

71** -0.083
72

Note: In each cell, the upper-line value is the difference in averages for the assessment item indicated, and the lower-line
value is the number of responses. After the corresponding t-test, asterisk are used to indicate the significance level (**for 1% and * for 5%). Shading of cells indicates that the average difference is positive and that the significance is * or**.

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

References:· Nobuo Shirai. 2016. "Chiiki ni kitai sareru kiko hendo tekio to torikumi jokyo, tsugi naru mondai" (Locally expectedclimate change adaptation and status of efforts, next challenges), Environmental Management (Japan Environmental
Management Association for Industry), 52(9), 30-34.
· Nobuo Shirai. 2015. "Kiko hendo tekio ni okeru bottom up approach: Kiko hendo no jimotogaku o kiten toshite" (Bottom
up approaches to climate change adaptation: As the starting point of Local Studies in Climate Change), Review ofEnvironmental Economics and Policy Studies , 8(2), 55-59.
· Shirai Nobuo, Tanaka Mitsuru, Onoda Shinji, Kimura Hiromi, Baba Kenji, Kajii Kumiko. 2012. "Zeijakusei no gainen to kikohendo tekio ni okeru zeijakusei no kozo ni kansuru bunseki" (Concepts of vulnerability and analysis of the structureof vulnerability in climate change adaptation), Compendium of Lectures from Environmental Systems Research Paper
Presentations, 40, 309-317.

Chapter 4 Progress on Approaches for Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

62

Chapter 5
Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan5-1. Hokkaido: Snow Compaction in Agriculture (Kitami Region)
In the eastern area of Hokkaido, soil-frost depth has been getting increasingly shallow in recent years
with rising ground temperatures in winter. The reason for this is that changes in snowfall patterns
due to climate change are resulting in greater snow accumulation than in the past. Snow acts as an
insulator, impeding cold winter temperatures from reaching the ground surface.
In this region, to deal the changes in climate, a technique is being promoted to freeze the soil to atarget depth in winter for the benefit of farming.
The fiscal 2015 edition of SI-CAT’s Report on Local Climate Adaptation in Japan (in Japanese)
introduced the yukiwari (snow plowing) technique that is being used to control the soil-frost depth
in the Tokachi region of Hokkaido. In this year’s report we introduce a technique known as yukifumi(snow compaction), which emerged in the Tokachi region but has been spreading rapidly to Hokkaido’s
Kitami region in recent years.
In the Tokachi region yukiwari is the main technique being used, and it involves a tractor pushingaside the accumulated snow and exposing the ground surface to freezing air. This is in contrast to theyukifumi technique in the Kitami region, which involves a tractor pulling a heavy roller to compress
the snow. This thereby increases the snow’s heat transfer rate. In this region, it is not unusual for theminimum air temperature to drop below minus 20ºC, so by compressing and hardening the snow,
farmers are allowing the cold to reach the soil and freeze it.
What are the actual agricultural benefits of snow compaction? After the winter freezing, when thesoil thaws in the spring, soil clumps break up more easily, and when that happens the soil texture ismore consistent. The primary reason that this yukifumi technique was so well accepted here is that it
improves the performance of soil pulverization.
This snow compaction technique reduces soil clumps, so the field preparation goes more quickly
in the spring. With the soil more consistent and finer in texture, tractors can plow more easily, whichsignificantly reduces the springtime working hours and fuel costs. During the autumn harvest, clumps
of soil the same size as the crop item being harvested often come out of the ground together with theharvest. Separating the soil from the harvest requires considerable effort, but this technique reduces
the amount of work required. Also, any delay in the timing of start of work in spring due to the snow
compaction is well within acceptable limits.
In effect, snow compaction done by equipment for a short amount of time in winter has resulted in asignificant increase in farm productivity from spring through to autumn.
This innovative approach, adopted as a response to changes in the climate, is spreading rapidly in

63

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)the region. During field visits in the spring of
2016, it was learned that the area treated byyukifumi snow compaction had approximately
tripled in just one year.
Photo 5-1: Snow compaction roller
Truck tires connected together, pulled by a tractor to compact
the snow. Sometimes also used for wheat compaction.

5-2. Ibaraki Prefecture: Agriculture
Ibaraki Prefecture ranks second in Japan in terms of agricultural output. With a focus on agriculture,
Ibaraki University is working with local governments in this prefecture to identify crops that could be
affected by climate change and suggest adaptations based on impact assessments. We aim to havethis work reflected in the prefecture’s adaptation policies.
The expected main output of this work is a "Comprehensive Climate Change Adaptation Plan
for Agriculture in Ibaraki Prefecture (Proposal)" as shown in Figure 5-2, to be jointly preparedand published by the Ibaraki University, collaborating with the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Department of Ibaraki Prefecture and the Ibaraki Prefectural Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Agricultural Center. Major contents to be incorporated into the plan include (1) projections ofclimate change in Ibaraki Prefecture, (2) quantitative impacts and risks for agricultural crops, and(3) a package of adaptations to mitigate adverse impacts. Items (1) through (3) will be provided forfive areas within the prefecture (central, north, Rokko, south, west). Item (3) will be an "adaptation
package," a compilation of effective "hard" (physical) and "soft" (institutional) adaptations. For example,
a major adaptation strategy to deal with heat damage to rice is to develop heat-tolerant cultivars, but
for any new cultivar developed to have any effect it must be disseminated (used by farmers). For new
cultivars to be adopted by farmers, various actions need to be taken, such as securing sales channels
for the rice, advertising and promotions, guidance and outreach, and subsidies for introducing the
new cultivars, etc. Thus, adaptation should not simply be considered alone. It is important to create apackage that includes all the associated measures.
By the end of fiscal 2016, we had constructed a model to estimate the ratio of chalky rice grains(CRGs) in Ibaraki Prefecture, which corresponds to (1) and (2) above. To assess the crop impactsof climate change it is important to assess both the volume and quality of crop harvests, because
the occurrence of CRGs reduces the quality grade and leads to economic losses for producers. By
analyzing rice-growing data and weather data obtained from the Ibaraki Prefectural Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries Agricultural Center, we developed a model to estimate the occurrence of CRGs
for Koshihikari and Akitakomachi rice from daily average temperature and cumulative solar radiation.
Going forward, there are plans to verify the accuracy of this methodology and assess the impacts ofChapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan64

disseminating it broadly, as well as to consider combinations of adaptations including promoting thecultivation techniques of good producers, adjusting crop seasons, and introducing heat-tolerant cropvarieties.
Accumulation of scientific knowledge
Example: Model to estimate the ratio of chalky rice grains

The ratio of chalky rice grains

Model to estimate the ratio of chalky rice grains

Growth data provided by Ibaraki Prefectural Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Agricultural Center
Problem increases with warmer temperatures
Rate of increase depends on cultivar→ Use the knowledge in adaptation measures

Average temperature of 34 days from5days before ear-forming period(℃)

Other topics being researched
Analysis of chalky rice grains data for Koshihikari and Akitakomachi
Preparation of yield prediction models for lettuce and "hakusai"(type of cabbage)
Analysis of data for various types of eggplant

Seasonal changes in lettuce
shipments to the market for
Ibaraki Prefecture (blue)
and Nagano Prefecture (red)Information interpretation, refinement

Impact assessments, adaptation measures
Impacts, adaptation measures in response to climate change(Concept)+1°C (27°C)
Impacts, risks+2°C (28°C)

20% occurrence ofchalky rice grains

Shift to Fukumaru cultivars
Package ofadaptation Start development of new cultivars
Secure sales channels
measures+3°C (29°C)

Growing area and risk map (Concept)+4°C (30°C)

50% occurrence

Assess adaptabilityof new cultivars

Introduce
Subsidy program
to introduce new cultivars

Risk of occurrence ofchalky rice grains
in Koshihikari rice

Integration

Goals
Preparation of "Comprehensive Climate
Change Adaptation Plan for Agriculture
in Ibaraki Prefecture"
1. Projections of climate change in Ibaraki
Prefecture
2. Quantitative impacts and risks for
agricultural crops
3. A package of adaptation measures tomitigate the impacts

Reflect in policies,
measures, actionplans of Ibaraki
Prefecture

Figure 5-2: Climate Change Impact Assessments and Adaptation Measures for Agriculture in Ibaraki Prefecture(2015 – 2019)

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

5-3. Ibaraki Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture: Coastal Areas
This project investigates adaptation measures in coastal areas of Ibaraki Prefecture and Tottori
Prefecture. In Japan, each local government has a responsibility for coastal infrastructure
improvements based on their Master Plan for Coastal Protection, in accordance with the national
Coast Act and the Basic Policy on Coastal Protection which are under the jurisdiction of the Ministryof Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
The current Master Plans for Coastal Protection stipulate coastal infrastructure improvement projects
from the three dimensions of disaster prevention, environmental protection, and utilization, however,they do not consider the impacts of climate change. Therefore, this project aims to investigate
adaptation measures against various impacts which are expected to be induced by changes of external
forces due to climate change. The projects are conducted at coastal areas in Ibaraki and Tottori
prefectures by cooperating with researchers of various fields and managers of the local governments.
By referring to physical environmental parameters such as waves, seawater levels, and watertemperatures calculated by near-future projections targeting the year 2030 with a scenario of global
average temperatures rising by 2ºC, we reveal the factors and mechanisms which determine impacts
on disaster preventions, the environment and utilization at the coastal areas, such as changes inexternal forces for design, coastal topography, fisheries, and disaster risks. Based on the investigation,
we are going to propose adaptation measures. In the coastal areas of both prefectures, there is aneed to review external forces for design for future revision of the Master Plan for Coastal Protection,
as well as concrete scenarios which can be used to make decisions when upgrading facilities andstructures. For example, we are going to investigate coastal erosion and other impacts from tidelevels and waves under normal weather, the frequency of high wave occurrence and magnitudeand frequency of typhoons, as well as impacts under worst-case scenarios such as a storm surge
occurring simultaneously with flooding. The ultimate goal of the project is to describe concrete steps
to consider climate change impacts and adaptation measures in documents to support the preparationof the Master Plan for Coastal Protection.
In fiscal 2016, a joint project conference and field tour was held in Ibaraki Prefecture with coastal
researchers from various universities and institutes and managers of Ibaraki and Tottori prefectures.
Thanks to the participation and information exchanges among a lot of experts, including researchers
who are using supercomputers for climate change projections and technical experts of the prefectures
who are responsible for planning, designing, and maintaining coastal structures, all participants
developed a deeper understanding of the interests and needs of each other as well as the required
data formats. In order to propose concrete adaptation measures, preliminary investigations are
currently under way about coastal zone impacts based on results of the near-future projections,
together with the monitoring of changes in coastal topography.

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan66

Project flow
Factors that determine impacts on coastal protection, environmental protection, and utilization
Waves, currents,
sea levels,
seawater temperatures

Topography (sand dunes)(aquatic environment, etc.)

Technologicaldevelopment
organizations
Near-future
projection results

Consideration of impact assessments, adaptation measures
To support integrating information about climate change when developing the Master Plan for Coastal Protection.

Ibaraki Prefecture: Innovative managed fisheries and tsunami countermeasures(Also including perspective of adaptation measures into "the Guideline of external forces
for design according to the Master Plan for Coastal Protection" formulated originally by Ibaraki Prefecture)

Figure 5-3: Flow for consideration of adaptation measures at coastal areas in Ibaraki Prefecture and Tottori
Prefecture

5-4. Saitama Prefecture: Adaptation Initiatives
Saitama Prefecture has a reputation as one of the hottest prefectures in Japan, and Japan’s 74-year
daily maximum surface air temperature record was broken here at 40.9ºC on August 16, 2016. The
temperatures are still rising and the trend from 1897 to 2016 is an increase of 2.1ºC per century at the
Kumagaya Meteorological Observatory. The trend from 1980 to 2016 has been 5.0ºC per century, andthe temperature rise has become more pronounced. The impacts of warming on crops and the naturalenvironment are already obvious. The warming trend is caused by not only global climate change,
but also urban heat island effect. In discussing climate change adaptation, we need to consider bothglobal climate change and the urban heat island.
In this context, Saitama Prefecture began considering climate change adaptation as an important
issue earlier than other prefectural governments, and included climate change adaptation strategy as
a part of its global warming strategy action plan ("Stop Global Warming: Saitama Navigation 2050")
adopted in 2009. In 2015, Saitama Prefecture revised its action plan based on scientific information
about climate change and impact assessments such as the results of S-8 research program done by
the Ministry of the Environment on climate change adaptation, and added "climate change adaptation
mainstreaming" and "promoting adaptive adaptation" to the action plan. In March 2016, based on
the revised action plan, Saitama Prefecture also compiled its future directions on climate change
adaptation into the document "Toward Adaptation to Global Warming: The Direction for Initiatives"(referred to below as "Direction for Initiatives") after reviewing climate change impact assessments

67

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)and existing measures in Saitama Prefecture. The "Direction for Initiatives" reflects information on
global warming impacts that was provided as one aspect of the SI-CAT program. This "Direction for
Initiatives" is based on Japan’s National Adaptation Plan and is a guideline for promoting Saitama
Prefecture’s adaptation strategy, so it is regarded as the prefecture’s adaptation plan.
Going forward, Saitama Prefecture will undertake further climate change adaptation mainstreaming,
mainly through the Adaptation Expert Committee established within the prefectural offices as aplatform for discussing climate change adaptation. Simultaneously, because of an obvious worseningof the thermal environment here due to the urban heat island effect and global climate change,
Saitama Prefecture will also be working to develop ways to optimize technologies to address theurban heat island effect in street canyons and public facilities, etc.

Figure 5-4: Saitama Prefecture’s adaptation strategy action plan, "Toward Adaptation to Global Warming: The
Direction for Initiatives"

5-5. Nagano Prefecture: Disaster Prevention, Agriculture, Ecosystems, etc.
Nagano Prefectural Government research is underway relating to climate change impact assessments
and adaptation technologies for agriculture, disaster prevention, ecosystems, and urban health, withthe aim of creating frameworks to promote adaptation to climate change. One of them is the Shinshu
Monitoring Network for Climate Change, established in 2014. This network aims to gain a detailed
understanding of climate change and its impacts in the prefecture, and has the participation of about
fifty organizations, including some that are affiliated with national and prefectural governments,
universities, and other connections. The network centralizes in one place the meteorological and otherinformation collected from member groups, and disseminates or offers information on climate change
based on that data plus information on climate change impacts in various fields.
The Shinshu Climate Change Adaptation Platform was established in October 2016 by Nagano

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan

68

Prefecture, as an organization to share information provided by the monitoring network about climatechange impacts, and to consider adaptation measures and promote the development of adaptation
technologies and other work. Currently, about 70 organizations are involved, including not only theprefectural departments associated with the platform, but also universities, businesses, medical
institutions, and other organizations.
Under the framework of the platform, subcommittees were also formed for disaster prevention,
agriculture, and ecosystems, so that each subcommittee could share expert information and discuss
adaptation its respective field. The disaster prevention subcommittee has already met twice, and theagricultural subcommittee once. Each subcommittee, university and research institute affiliated with
the SI-CAT Technology Development Team introduces research findings on climate change impact
projections for disaster prevention and agriculture, and shares information with the participants.
From fiscal 2017 onward, the ecosystem subcommittee will start meeting and there are plans to moveahead with preparations to establish urban and health subcommittees.
With the establishment of the platform and network mentioned above, the foundations for promoting
climate change adaptation have been established. Going forward the Nagano Prefectural Government
hopes to link the monitoring network and platform well together and develop them with sustainable
operations. At the same time, it is hoped that they will put some effort into sharing risk information on
climate change with the general public, and help transform this into resilient society with adaptation
to climate change.

Photo 5-5: A scene at meeting to launch the Shinshu Climate Change Adaptation Platform

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

5-6. Gifu Prefecture: Flooding and Sediment-related Disasters
In Gifu Prefecture, a model prefecture in SI-CAT activities, Gifu University and the prefectural
government are cooperating with the aim of promoting adaptation to both climate change and societal
change (such as population decline). They are mainly promoting the development of risk assessment
methodologies for flooding and sediment-related disasters, as well as consideration of adaptation
scenarios. Here, we look at initiatives of the prefectural government in processes for considering
adaptation measures.
In order to effectively promote climate change adaptation in Gifu Prefecture, departments of theprefectural offices are in discussions with experts in Gifu University, and holding internal liaison
committee meetings jointly among prefectural departments that have any connection to adaptation.
Many departments still had limited familiarity with the concept of climate change adaptation, so
to promote an understanding of the connections between the prefectural government and climatechange, it was decided to start by looking at the measures already being implemented by eachdepartment that inherently included potential climate adaptation measures. This is because, having
received the information on near-term climate change projections and impact assessments (outputsof the SI-CAT program), researchers felt that to consider additional adaptation measures, it would
first be necessary to identify the adaptation measures that are already being implemented, and toassess the current situation. At the prefectural government’s internal liaison committee meeting thisfiscal year, organizations participating in the SI-CAT program were invited to speak, so the SI-CAT
Implementation Team presented topics about the findings of studies on government needs regarding
climate change adaptation. It also explained the pioneering climate change adaptation initiativesof Saitama Prefecture. Through the meeting, the government’s climate adaptation measures wereclassified as either "potential" (inherent in existing measures) or "additional." Besides realizing thatthey were already implementing "potential" adaptation measures, by learning about the innovative
initiatives of other prefectures, many departments were able to develop the foundations to explore
further directions for climate adaptation that would be best-suited to the situation in Gifu Prefecture.
As a result of an explanation of the concepts of "potential" adaptation measures for the prefecturalinternal liaison committee, Gifu University made a tentative listing of such measures existing withprefectural policies and measures, with cooperation from Gifu Prefecture. Among approximately
11,000 items listed in the prefectural operating budget, an initial screening found more than 300
to be associated with climate change mitigation or adaptation. Many of these were policies andmeasures that did not explicitly mention climate change, but there were various levels of linkages
with climate change. In fiscal 2017 there are plans for the initiative to continue and, through careful
review by prefectural personnel, to promote the visualization of potential adaptation measures in Gifu
Prefecture, and to refine the approaches and develop versatile techniques that can be applied by othergovernment organizations.

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan70

Number of prefectural
programs and projects that
contribute to climate change
adaptation
Additional adaptation measures
implemented based on input fromclimate change projections and impact
assessments

Adaptation measures andpotential adaptation
measures today

Portion of increased effectiveness ofcurrent and potential adaptation
measures

Now

FutureFigure 5-6: Concept of "visualization" (identification) of potential adaptation measures in prefectural programs,
policies and measures

5-7. Shiga Prefecture: Integrated Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation
and Adaptation Measures(1) Introduction
Until recently, measures to address climate change in Shiga Prefecture focused mainly on mitigation,
but with recent revisions of Japan’s national energy strategy and greenhouse gas emission reduction
targets, the Prefecture also reviewed its plans for realizing a low-carbon society and clearly statedthe need to include adaptation measures. Signs of global warming are already evident, including
an increase in the number of extremely hot days and warmer winters, and it is necessary not only
to reduce GHG emissions but also to consider adaptation measures for potential climate change
despite mitigation efforts. Using core information such as more advanced climate change projections
and impact assessments, Shiga Prefecture now aims to review and visually portray factors such as
citizens’ sense of wellbeing, awareness of climate risk, and receptivity to adaptation measures, andthen develop new integrated scenarios for climate change and future society in the prefecture.
For developing future society scenarios, numerical models are used that quantitatively express
the relationships of various activities in the household, industrial, and transportation sectors withthe associated energy consumption and GHG emissions. Parameters for the numerical models are
determined based on existing government plans and comments on the future of the region fromworkshops, in which stakeholders (including residents, businesses, government, etc.) discuss various
social dimensions (lifestyle, industry, transportation and energy, etc.) and share a common qualitativeand concrete image for 2030. Based on all of this, the qualitative image of future society as visualizedby participants can then be depicted quantitatively in terms of socioeconomic dimensions (Figure 5-7).
To introduce climate change adaptation measures into future scenarios, it is necessary to develop
an adaptation policy package and make describe it quantitatively, but the standard policy packageof adaptation measures is not yet clear. Thus, researchers gathered information on policies that are71

FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)already being implemented for mitigation and weather changes, and classified them and createda database of mitigation measures, adaptation measures, and measures that are effective for both
mitigation and adaptation. Going forward, after quantifying the policies and measures in this databaseand by reflecting them in numerical models, researchers plan to conduct a climate change impact
assessment that considers the regional characteristics of Shiga Prefecture, and to assess thebalances of mitigation and adaptation from the viewpoint of costs and risks.

Quantification indicators

Definition of wealth inbasic concepts
Axis for assessment
Resources for
future generations
Ecosystems, etc.

Environment

Not just

oneself

Society

Connections
Community,
etc.

Not just

EconomyActivation ofother people
and regions

thingsUpper limit CO2 emissions (t), etc.

Lifestyle satisfaction
level

Satisfaction level (points), etc.

Activity level of
local economy

Prefectural GDP (yen), etc.

Feeling of wellbeing

now

Degree of environmental
consideration

Sustainability

Not just

Future society scenarios (2030)

Figure 5-7: Framework for developing scenarios for future society

5-8. Osaka City: Heat Stress
The region around Osaka City is an area with high population density on a flat topography about 20
kilometers across, facing Osaka Bay to the west. As a result of these features, the heat island effecthas been significant, and the city has been tackling it for years. Monitoring studies since 2005 haveshown that the air temperature distribution depends on location and time frame, and is affected bytopographical features especially on the small city land area, plus land uses, population, and artificial
waste heat conditions. In addition, the studies showed that it would be effective to consider moredetailed measures with quantitative assessments done area by area, using not only the number ofvery hot nights (daily minimum air temperature exceeded 25ºC, "nettaiya") and hot summer days (daily
maximum air temperature exceeded 30ºC, "manatsubi"), but also a scaled measure of degree-hours (acumulative index calculated from the degrees above a certain threshold temperature and the amountof time).
In March 2015, Osaka City and Osaka Prefecture together formulated the Osaka Heat Island
Measures Promotion Plan which specified basic approaches and targets, plus details of initiatives
to deal with heat island issues, and has been promoting initiatives to reduce the number of very hot
nights, which is one target of the plan, as well as the creation of "cool spots."

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan72

This program is participating in SI-CAT as a local government with needs, to understand the statusof technical information about measures to deal with heat stress, as well as the efforts of other local
governments, to gather and exchange information, and to have all of this reflected into the initiativesof Osaka City.

Figure 5-8-1: Contour map of degree-hours for hot
summer days (daily maximum air temperature
exceeded 30ºC, "manatsubi")

Figure 5-8-2: Contour map of very hot nights (daily
minimum air temperature exceeded 25ºC, "nettaiya")
Total degree-hours (ºC-hours) July–Sept 2008

Total degree-hours (ºC-hours) July–Sept 2008

Osaka Heat Island Measures Promotion Plan (March 2015)

Goal 1

To reduce number of very hot
nights by 30% compared to 2000
(excluding impacts of global
warming) by lowering the summernight temperatures in residential
areas

Goal 2

To improve the summer daytime
thermal environment in outdoor
spaces by utilizing existing outdoor
cool spots and creating new ones

5-9. Shikoku Region: Flooding and Storm Surge
The Kochi University of Technology is aiming to develop and propose policies for climate change
adaptation measures on the island of Shikoku, mainly focusing on flood disaster prevention. Currently
it is working mainly in collaboration with Kochi Prefecture and Kochi City on the Kochi Plain, and thetown of Ishii in Tokushima Prefecture, in the Yoshino River basin.
For the Kochi Plain, they used rainfall data and water level data provided by Kochi Prefecture (theriver management authority) and analyzed past rainfall events. They then looked at various aspects

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

including the characteristics of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution in rainfall events that involved
water damage risk, and then applied the rainfall patterns where disaster risk was identified to a nearterm statistical downscaling model that had been provided, to conduct an impact assessment forflood control and water management on the Kagami River. They are also analyzing complex disasterrisks in the context of climate change, including flooding and earthquakes, and proposing adaptation
measures.
In the town of Ishii (Tokushima Prefecture) in the Yoshino River basin, they analyzed the risk ofdamage from flooding using inundation simulations and other methods. They held meetings to discuss
the findings with municipal emergency preparedness officials and residents’ disaster prevention
organizations, and promoted more in-depth discussions about disaster risks and strategies to address
them.
They also introduced a forest management model as an impact assessment model, and analyzed
reproducibility of actual conditions. Now they are using the forest management model to understandhow important the ecosystem functions of forests are in terms of adaptation measures and how they
can be ensured through sustainable forestry. They are also analyzing the roles of biomass power
generation plants in the context of adaptation measures. In addition, they are conducting field studies
on the effectiveness of agroforestry, paying attention to the multiple functions of forests.
As the final layer of an integrated model of impact assessment models, to assess economic impacts
they developed a monetary model of the regional economy, and from that extracted a hybrid industrial
input-output (inter-industry relations) table from a physical model, with a focus on new businesses
and industrial sectors. Looking at biomass power plants, they then used the hybrid industrial inputoutput model as a physical model to analyze the economic effects, as well as the economic effects in
scenarios where material prices were determined based on policy.
They have already developed systems to analyze the economic damage of water shortages onmunicipalities in the Yoshino River basin, especially in cities, and are promoting discussions about
how municipalities can use them. Meanwhile, they have proposed a structural model for hybrid inputoutput tables that can be used to analyze not only direct damage but also indirect damage affecting alarge region, and are working to further develop the details.
The prevention of flood disasters as a climate change adaptation measure is an important theme
affecting life and property, and there is a need to think about the linkages with conventional riverinfrastructure improvement legislation and planning concepts, as well as future river infrastructure
improvements. The parties involved will work to incorporate the disaster prevention philosophy of"preparing for the worst" based on knowledge of flood damage in recent years, plus policy trends
based on that knowledge, and constraints such as population decline and financial factors.

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan74

Climate change downscaling data (static)

Rainfall
Kochi Plain

1) DIAS (The University of Tokyo)
2) JAMSTEC (5 km x 5 km x 1 hr)

RiversFloodplain area

Ground-based observation data
Being digitized by Kochi University of Technology

Sewer systemservice area

Dam
Kochi City

Task 1
Surface calibration using ground-based data
(5 km x 5 km x 1 hr)-> Rainfall distribution patterns
considering impacts of climate change

Kochi City

Sea

Task 2
Calculations based on assumptions of probability of being smaller
than or equal to design flood and rainfall amounts
Based on ground-based data (rainfall time patterns),
create rainfall distribution and time model

Based on disaster resilience principles, nothing "unexpected" should ever happen

Consideration of content and level of (1) probability of being smaller than or equal to a certain value, (2) acceptable damage

One-dimensional undefined flow
channel modelRiver runoff model (WEB-DHM+dam model)
Task: Calculate water level from WEB-DHM data

WEB-DHM（hydrological model）
Kochi Plain①
Dam

Water levelTask: calculation of runoff volume in watershed areas

RiversSewer system tank model③

Task: Determine parameters from
historical data②

Internal water level
Sewer pipe level water level
Pump drainage(to river)

Speed of flooding ininundation area

Task: Calculate water level from WEB-DHM data

Two-dimensional
flood model
Water level

①

③

②

Coastal hydraulic model(tide, storm surge, tsunami)
Task: Develop storm surge level model from probability of
non-exceedance model, from statistical analysis of historical
data on typhoon location, path, wind speed, and air pressure
Impacts of climate change
Highest level←Model+ economic losses projection model
GIS data ⇒ Value of losses⇒ Industrial input-output analysis (hybrid)1h
2h

Policy debate on
climate change adaptation measures

3h

Figure 5-9: Integrated model to link climate change impact assessments with policy

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

5-10. Saga Prefecture: Flooding and Storm Surge
The broad and low-lying Saga Plain located at the inner reaches of the Ariake Sea, which experiences
the largest tidal range in Japan, and has an extensive and deep foundation layer of soft clay sediment.
This region is extremely vulnerable to flooding and storm surges, and for the future climate scenario
there are concerns about intense rainfall events and stronger typhoons due to global warming. Thus,
the impacts of climate change are an urgent matter for discussion. Among the impacts of climatechange on the Saga Plain, Kyushu University is focusing on impact assessments of storm surge,
flooding, and geotechnical disasters, and working to consider adaptation measures and quantify theireffectiveness. The aims of this study going forward are to provide information that will contribute
further to disaster prevention measures.
To look at inundation from storm surges, they developed a simulation model to consider various
adaptation measures in significant detail. Going forward, they plan to run simulations under various
conditions to consider climate change impact assessments and the effectiveness of adaptation
measures. To look at flooding, Kyushu University has started simulations to consider the effectivenessfor flood control by using a series of dams distributed in a cascading effect. The work is showing thatthe cascade approach is able to enhance flood control performance. The cascade approach is thus
a new flood control concept they are now proposing. Compared to conventional dam configurations,this approach can significantly improve flood control by using a continuous line of dams (arranged ina direct series) and intentionally allowing the overflow of excess water from emergency spillways. As
for geotechnical disasters, research is moving ahead with the aim of proposing methods to assess thesoundness of river embankments and effective adaptation measures.
Figure 5-10 shows the results of a simulation of inundation from a storm surge accompanying avery powerful typhoon making landfall on the Saga Plain. The figure on the left shows water depth
immediately after the typhoon passes, with a large portion of the Saga Plain under water. The figureon the right shows the increase in flood water depth in a scenario with failed embankments. Used
this way, the simulation makes it possible to calculate changes in damages from inundation due toembankment failure. It also enables consideration of adaptation measures that can generally beconsidered, such as constructing seawalls, raising ground levels, and installing drainage pumps.

Chapter 5 Local Adaptation Initiatives in Japan

76

Figure 5-10: Example of simulation results for storm surge inundation from a very powerful typhoon making
landfall on the Saga Plain
Water depth immediately after typhoon passes (left), and changes in water depth due to embankment failure (right)

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FY2016 Report on Local Climate Change Adaptation in Japan: Toward Mainstreaming (English Edition)

Authors
EditorHosei University Center for Regional Research* This English edition was prepared with cooperation from e's Inc.
Authors· Preface: Publication of the FY2016 Report on Local Climate Adaptation in Japan
Fujio Kimura (University of Tsukuba)
Mitsuru Tanaka (Hosei University)· Chapter 1[1-1] Yoshiaki Ishibashi (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology)[1-2] Mitsuru Tanaka (Hosei University)· Chapter 2[2-1] Shingo Watanabe (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)[2-2] Yoichi Ishikawa (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)[2-3] Yasuaki Hijioka (National Institute for Environmental Studies)· Chapter 3[3-1] Taiko Kudo, Shigeru Watanabe (Japan Weather Association) and Kenshi Baba (Hosei University andTokyo City University)[3-2] Hiroharu Tanaka (Hosei University)[3-3] Asako Iwami (Hosei University) and Kenshi Baba (Hosei University and Tokyo City University)· Chapter 4[4-1] Kaori Mizutani (Public Hearts Inc.), Kenshi Baba (Hosei University and Tokyo City University) andAsako Iwami (Hosei University)[4-2] Kenshi Baba (Hosei University and Tokyo City University), Asako Iwami (Hosei University), Motoko
Kosugi (Shizuoka University) and Eri Aoki (Keio University)[4-3] Kenshi Baba (Hosei University and Tokyo City University), Mitsuru Tanaka (Hosei University), Takashi
Otsuka and Manami Yoshikawa (ICLEI-Japan)[4-4/4-5] Nobuo Shirai (Hosei University)· Chapter 5[5-1] Hiroharu Tanaka (Hosei University)[5-2] Makoto Tamura, Yuji Masutomi and Takahiro Takimoto (Ibaraki University)[5-3] Satoshi Takewaka (University of Tsukuba)[5-4] Tomohide Shimada (Center for Environmental Science in Saitama)[5-5] Takashi Hamada (Nagano Environmental Conservation Research Institute)[5-6] Morihiro Harada (Gifu University)[5-7] Michinori Kimura, Jaegyu Kim and Reina Kawase (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute)[5-8] Keiko Masumoto (Osaka City Research Center of Environmental Science)[5-9] Kohei Yoshimura (Kochi University of Technology)[5-10] Noriaki Hashimoto (Kyushu University)
The affiliation at the time of writing

Authors78

June 2018 (Japanese edition was issued in May 2017)
Center for Regional Research, Hosei University

Address: 2-16 Ichigaya tamachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-0843, Japan
E-mail: si-cat-lg-help@ml.hosei.ac.jp

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
79

FY2016 Reporton Local Climate Change
Adaptation on
in Japan:Toward Change
Mainstreaming(English Edition)"Social
Implementation
Program
Climate
Adaptation
Technology (SI-CAT)"* The term "social implementation" is a literal translation of the term "shakai jisso ", part of the program name, which is also
close to "mainstreaming" in English. This report uses both terms interchangeably.