Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

Impacts of Climate Change on Transport and Adaptation in Asia

Madan B. REGMI
Visiting Researcher
Department of International Development
Engineering
Graduate School of Science and Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology
2-12-1-I4-12, O-okayama, Meguro-ku,
Tokyo 152-8550, Japan
Fax: +81-3-5734-3772
E-mail: regmi.m.aa@m.titech.ac.jp
F

F

Shinya HANAOKA
Associate Professor
Department of International Development
Engineering
Graduate School of Science and Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology
2-12-1-I4-12, O-okayama,
Meguro-ku,
Tokyo, 152-8550, JAPANFax: +81-3-5734-3468
E-mail: hanaoka@ide.titech.ac.jp

H

Abstract: This paper examines impacts of climate change on Transport in Asia. It identifies
vulnerable components of transport infrastructure which are at high risk to climate change. It
discusses adaptation options of transport infrastructure development during planning, design,
construction, operation and maintenance phases. Findings of a survey of climate change
impacts and adaptation in Asia with respect to awareness, existing polices and guidelines andinstitutional setup and coordination are presented. The research reveals that the design
consideration is an important aspect for adaptation. The paper further stresses the need tostrengthen institutional capacity to initiate policy guidelines and implementation ofadaptation programmes. It proposes to extend the existing environmental impact assessment
guidelines to include assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation. Availability oflimited literature in Asian context indicates further research needs in the area of transport andclimate change, costing adaptation measures and design review.
Key Words: Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation, Design Guidelines

1. INTRODUCTION
There have been extreme weather events in Asia recently signaling increase in intensity andfrequency of such events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth
Assessment Report predicts that Asia will experience rise in temperature, longer summer heat
spells, more intense and frequent precipitation, increase in extreme rainfall and tropical
cyclones, rise in sea levels in coastal areas around the Indian Ocean and northern andsouthern Pacific Oceans (Christensen et al., 2007).
The climate change threatens basic elements of life for people around the world- access towater, food, health and use of land and environment (Stern, 2007). Transportation system will
be affected by climate change. Increase in temperature, precipitation, sea level and storm
surges will have significant impact on transportation infrastructure.
Some obvious impacts to the transportation systems are traffic disruption due flooding andheavy snow and rains, difficult driving conditions, increase in maintenance requirement to thepavement due to high temperature and more frequent icing-thawing phenomenon, overflow


Corresponding Author

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009of side drains and cross drainage works, submerged bridges due to floods induced by intense
precipitation, inundation of coastal roads due to sea level rise, and road blocks due tolandslides.
Transport sector not only affected by climate change it also contributes to the climate change
due to carbon emissions. Various studies have assessed the impacts of climate change ontransport in developed countries (Wooller, 2003; Andrey et al., 2003; Harvey et al., 2004;
Galbraith et al., 2005; Humphrey, 2008). These studies show that climate change will havesubstantial impacts on design, construction, operation and maintenance of the transportsystem.
These studies have identified research gaps in the area of impacts assessment andquantification, implications for design guidelines, appropriate adaptation strategies fortransport sector (Lemmen et al., 2004). The IPCC Synthesis Report suggests the need tointegrate climate change considerations into national transport policies and on research anddevelopment (IPCC, 2007). However, there are limited studies conducted in the area ofclimate change and adaptation in the transport sector in Asia.
The conceptual framework for the research builds on the ongoing research in the area oftransport and climate change. The scale of impacts is related to the severity of extreme
climate events triggered by the climate change. The climate prediction is not uniform for allparts of Asia therefore the scale and nature of impacts on transportation system will bedifferent. South and South Asia transportation will be subject to impacts due to high intensity
rain and hot weather. Northern Asia and Tibetan Plateau will be subjected to increase in
winter precipitation. The islands and coastal areas in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean will
be affected by the rise in sea level. Similarly, different level of economy and national capacity
also affect proper planning and implementation of climate change and adaptation policies.
The adaptation measures to be planned depend on the intensity and frequency of climate
events, scale of impacts, location and topography. In this context, the research aims to answer
the following research questions: What are the most vulnerable transport infrastructurecomponents to the climate change and what are the impacts? How the climate change willaffect current practice of design, construction and operation of transport infrastructure? How
can we develop more resilient transport infrastructure through adaptation? What is the levelof awareness, institutional capacity in Asian developing countries needed to plan andimplement adaptation measures in the transport sector?
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Key definitions
Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).
Climate is defined as the average weather. Climate change refers to change in the state of theclimate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties,
and that persist for an extended period, typically a decade or longer. Impacts refer to theeffects of climate change on natural and human systems. Adaptation refers to initiatives andmeasures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expectedclimate change effects. While mitigation refers to implementing policies to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks (IPCC, 2007).

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

There is now little expectation that adaptation or mitigation alone can avoid all climatechange impacts. However, they can complement each other and can significantly reduce therisks of climate change (Sperling et al., 2009). Pachauri (2008) says adaptation alone cannot
cope with all the projected impacts of climate change, so greenhouse gas mitigation efforts
are urgent. This study however focuses on adaptation only.
2.2 Recent Studies on Transport and Climate Change
Koetse et al. (2009) have extensively surveyed literature on the effects of climate change ontransport and concluded most studies focus on short term impacts and the transport sector hasreceived little attention. Some of observed impacts listed are effects on coastal transport
infrastructure due to sea level rise, effect on traffic safety and congestion on roads by
precipitation, delay in rail transport, high winds and visibility have effect on safety and delay
for air transport, low and high water levels affect water transport.
Meyer (2008) has examined potential changes in design and engineering practices due toclimate changes in the United States. He argues that the current design standards developed
50 years ago, may not be sufficient to accommodate the impacts of climate change. He
suggests projects in highly vulnerable locations should be built with higher standards andstresses the need to review the US highway standards and develop new design standards toaddress future climate conditions.
Dasgupta et al. (2007) looked at impact of sea level rise in the coastal area globally. The
study concentrates on population and infrastructure planning but not on transport, however itsuggests that planning should consider all risks associated and recommend avoiding coastal
and vulnerable areas while planning infrastructure. In terms the impacts they predict that
Vietnam will be worst affected in Asia. There are 11 mega-deltas in Asia among them Dhaka,
Kolkata and Shanghai are at high risks of being severely impacted by the rise in sea level(IPCC, 2007).
Klein et al. (1999) doubt the IPCC guidelines for assessing climate change impacts andadaptation which focuses more on implementation and suggest a four step approachcollaboration, coordination, policy formulation and implementation.
2.3

Current State of Climate Change Adaptation

Asian Development Bank (ADB) has initiated incorporating adaptation measures in project
design and implementation (ADB, 2008). Some example includes climate proofing of thedesign of the Avatiu Harbor in the Cook Island, water resource management infrastructure inIndonesia and coastal infrastructure project in Vietnam. ADB’s adaptation programme for the
Pacific has initiated “climate proofing” of some infrastructure projects. One of the projects in
Micronesia was road construction (Hay, 2004).
There are many examples in countries considering the climate change while planning anddesigning transport infrastructure. Meyer (2008) mentions that the clearance of a bridges
have been increased after the Hurricane Katrina and one meter sea level rise was incorporate
into the design of Confederation Bridge in Canada (Andrey et al., 2003). Dasgupta et al.
(2007) suggest integrating transport and land use planning to consider vulnerable area. Somelocal authorities in US are planning to outlaw transport and infrastructure development inProceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009vulnerable coastal area.
Costing is a key factor in deciding the adaptation measures. How safe and strong should be
the infrastructure and at what cost? There are limited research in costing and life cycle
costing of adaptation measures in transport sector (Agrawala et al., 2008). Ozbay et al. (2004)
have analyzed the application of life cycle cost analysis in highway agencies in US and found
implementation gaps, mistrust between theory and knowledge and its implementation. It was
mainly applied in road pavement but not extensively for other road structure.
3. CLIMATE IMPACTS STUDIES FROM OTHER REGIONS
The main focus of research on transport and climate change is concentrated on reducing CO2
emissions from transport. In addition, there are ongoing efforts to study the impacts ofclimate change on transport infrastructure and operation. As no exclusive climate change
studies on transport sector are available in Asian context. This chapter provides brief analysisof impacts studies conducted in roads in Australia and Scotland and transport transportation
system in Canada, UK and USA. It then looks at similarity of impacts based on the predictedclimate change for Asia.
3.2 Impact of Climate Change on Roads
3.2.1 Australia
Harvey et al. (2004) assessed the likely impacts of climate change on road infrastructure fornext 100 year in Australia. They predicted Australia to be generally hotter and drier, rise intemperature 1-6ºC by 2070, sea level rise 9-88 cm by 2100, and maximum wind surge may
increase by 5-20%. Rain and rise in temperature will further triggers deterioration of
pavement causing pot holes and loss of surface chips due to high temperature. Flood heights
and frequency affect location and design of road and bridges. Sea level rise and storm surges
will affect coastal roads. Freight traffic is expected to rise until 2060 and stabilize there after.
Average freight payload expected to increase by 25% from 2000 to 2100. Using pavement
life cycle costing they predicted road maintenance cost would substantially increase in
Queensland and Northern Territory by 51% and 108% respectively.
The rate of pavement deterioration will be slow due to decrease in rainfall andcorrespondingly design thickness could be reduced. In northern parts of Australia due towetter climate the cost of pavement maintenance may increase, capacity of existing culverts
and waterway may be inadequate. Due to sea level rise the problems becomes bigger for low
lying coastal road in northern Australia. The study suggests that the planners and designers
need to take account of projected sea level rise in designing the clearance of bridge over tidal
water. Higher water table can accelerate pavement deterioration and need to raise levels of
existing embankments when rehabilitation is being planned at the end of their useful life.
Flooding impacts are cited as worthwhile- bridges, causeways and alignments are the mostlong lived feature on road. The study suggests that adaptation need to be planned considering
future trend of flood heights and frequencies.
3.2.2 Scotland
Galbraith et al. (2005) examined potential trend of climate change and how these may affectScottish road network. The study concluded that even small change in climate may warrantProceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009changes in current practices in design and operation of transport system. Rise in temperature,rain, snow and icing phenomenon, high wind, storm surge, fog, coastal flooding, rise in sea
level are some climate events that will affect roads in Scotland. The study suggests thatpredicted increase in rainfall and rise in sea level are of particular concern. The sea close to
Edinburgh is rising at a rate of 0.05 m/year. There is a question of risk associated with theoccurrence of events. The study recommends revising the storm design parameter used todesign surface water drainage, bridges and culverts and to review design return period, eventhough flooding is not a cause of concern in Scotland. It further says that the reduction infreeze-thaw cycle due to warming will reduce damage to road infrastructure.
3.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation System
3.3.1 Canada
Canada has different types of impacts of climate change on the transportation system becauseof its existing weather condition. Many studies predict that Canada will have net positive
impacts due to global warming. But increased summer and more frequent freeze-thaw cycle
would increase pavement damage and increase maintenance costs too (Andrey et al., 2003).
The operation of “ice road”, shoreline rails, and icy airports on northern part of Canada
would be affected due to shorter winter period. Warmer temperature will improve operationof all modes transport. It is also expected that warmer temperature would translate to longer
construction period and generating cost efficiency. However, rise in sea level will have affectcauseways, bridges, coastal road and railways. Air transport will also be affected by sea level
rise as 52 airports are situated just 5m above the sea level or less in Canada. Sea level rise
will provide deep navigation channel for maritime transport while some ship building yards
and dry docs would be affected. Warmer climate could reduce icebreaking service for marinetransport. Canada may have positive impacts due to reduced snow and ice control measures.
However, design and construction adaption measures may be costlier.
3.3.2 United Kingdom
Wooller (2003) looked at three climate change scenarios at 2020, 2050 and 2080 using
models developed by United Kingdom Climate Impact Project and the Hadley Centre. It says
while scenarios of 2050 and 2080 will depend on future CO2 emissions, the 2020 scenario islargely fixed. The study identified increased risks of flooding from river and sea andinadequate drainage, deterioration of highway infrastructure as key impacts. Increase inflooding during winter, seal level rise between 26-86 cm by 2080 and inundation of coastal
stretches, and more extreme heat during summer, difficult driving conditions due to snow andicing are the some of critical impacts predicted. The study concludes considering climatechange while planning maintenance and improvements of roads and rail and coordination are
main areas for actions. It considers improving understanding and awareness about the likely
impacts of climate change on transport is very important. It recommends the need to review
technical standards in the light of climate change scenarios, design manual for roads andbridges, additional research to understand impact on railways. Contingency plans will also be
required to cope with more extreme events and impacts.
United Kingdom has initiated to develop a transport strategy for climate change adaptation(Department for Transport, 2007). It stress that the infrastructure need to be resilient to theclimate of at least 2050 and beyond and mention that adaptation need not require significantly
extra resources. It was realized that the general level of awareness of the impacts of climate

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009change was not high. So the effectiveness of communication and awareness programme wasrecognized. They also suggested to improve risk management approach and to promote crossmodal knowledge-sharing networks.
3.3.3 United States
Humphrey (2008) has comprehensively studied the potential impact climate change on US
transportation. The study finds that the impact will be vary by mode and will be widespreadand costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes inplanning, design, construction, operation and maintenance of the transportation system. The
study makes details recommendations such as: incorporating climate change into investment
decisions, integrate evacuation planning and emergency response into transport operations,reevaluate design standards, include climate change and transportation and land use planningand develop new organizational developments. The study makes the case that focusing on the
problem now should help avoid costly future investments and disruptions to operations.
Another US study (ICF International, 2008) assesses the impact of global sea level rise on
infrastructure. The projected global sea level rise under various scenarios range from 18-59
cm. They study concludes that rising sea levels, combined with hurricanes and other weather
related incidents, could cause permanent inundation and more frequent temporary flooding ofroads, railroads, and airports, and could have major consequences for port facilities andcoastal shipping in US.
3.4 Discussion and Relevance to Asia
We see some similarity as well as difference on the type and scale of impacts in above listed
five cases. The difference is the weather pattern in Australia and Canada and their impacts.
While Canada will have positive impacts due to warming, further warming in Australia
affecting maintenance needs and expenditure. The US and Canadian studies covers all modesof transport. Most of the above case studies suggest similar types of impacts due to theclimate change. They advocate planning the transport infrastructure taking account of climate
events. Others include review the design standards and infrastructure need to cope with theimpact of climate change- incorporating more robust design. Based on the above cases andpredicted climate patterns for Asia the identification of vulnerable transport infrastructure andkey design parameters and impacts will be identified.

4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION IN ASIA
4.1 Regional Climate Projections for Asia
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Christensen et al., 2007) predicts warming is likely 1 tobe well above the global mean in Central Asia (3.7ºC), the Tibetan Plateau (3.8ºC) andnorthern Asia (4.3ºC), above the global mean in eastern Asia (3.3ºC) and South Asia (3.3ºC),
and similar to the global mean in Southeast Asia (2.5ºC). Precipitation in boreal winter is veryF

1F

The IPCC report uses standard terminology for the likelihood of occurrence: virtually certain >99%
probability; very likely>90% probability; likely>66% probability; more likely than not>50% probability; about
as likely as not 33 to 66% probability; unlikely <33% probability; very unlikely <10% probability; exceptionallyunlikely<1% probability.

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

likely to increase in northern Asia and the Tibetan Plateau, and likely to increase in eastern
Asia and the southern parts of Southeast Asia. Precipitation in summer is likely to increase innorthern Asia, East Asia, South Asia and most of Southeast Asia, but is likely to decrease incentral Asia. It is very likely that heat waves/hot spells in summer will be of longer duration,
more intense and more frequent in East Asia. Fewer very cold days are very likely in East
Asia and South Asia. There is very likely to be an increase in the frequency of intense
precipitation events in parts of South Asia, and in East Asia. Extreme rainfall and winds
associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase in East Asia, Southeast Asia and SouthAsia.
Sea levels are likely to rise from 18 cm to 59 cm under various scenarios during the century.
Around the Indian Ocean and northern and southern Pacific Ocean the sea level rise likely to
be on average. Indian Ocean and North and South Pacific Islands are very likely to warm
during the century. The warming is likely to be somewhat smaller than the global annual
mean. Annual rainfall is likely to increase in the northern Indian Ocean. Annual rainfall islikely to increase in the equatorial Pacific.
The annual runoff of major Siberian Rivers would increase significantly, expansion of deserts
and periodic sever water crisis, increased rainfall intensity during summer monsoon could
increase flood prone areas in Asia.
Recent notable intense rains and floods are: sever flood in 1999 in China; serious flood in2000 in Japan brought by 10 typhoons; serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh, Nepal,
northeast states of India during 2002, 2003, 2004; a record 944 mm rainfall in Mumbai in
2005; 2003 flood in Sri Lanka; Viet Nam 2008, Philippines 2004 and Cambodia 2000.
Philippines, China, Japan and South Asia were frequently hit by cyclones and typhoons.
These extreme events had severely damaged transportation infrastructure and operations.
The damage done to transport infrastructure by 2007 floods in Bangladesh was 34% (US$ 363 million) 2 . The Aceh Flood 2007 in Indonesia caused significant damage to thetransportation sector amounting US $ 35 million that is 25% of infrastructure costs.3
F

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4.2 Impacts of Climate Change in Asia
These predicted climate change will severely impact the transport infrastructure. The
potential impacts on transport infrastructure and operation due to the climates are given
below:
(i)

(ii)

2

Temperature: The extended warm weather would affect pavement deterioration
due to melting of bitumen, heating and thermal expansion of bridges and rail
tracks, buckling of joins. Decrease in temperature affects transport operation as
well as snow and ice removal costs including salts used.
Rainfall: The increase in winter precipitation would affect drainage capacities,
road pavement, driving condition and visibility. Increase in intensity of summer
precipitation creates flooding, affect drainage, bridges affecting waterways andclearance, damage pavement and affect road, rail, airport, ports and harbours,

Consolidated Damage and Loss Assessment, Lessons Learnt from the Flood 2007 and Future Action Plan,
Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Bangladesh.
3
Aceh Flood, Damage and Loss Assessment, Government of Indonesia, 2006

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

(iii)

(iv)

water transport channels, damage bridges foundation due to scoring. Road blocks
due to landslides and mudslides.
Storms and Storm surges: Rainfall and winds associated with cyclone would
create flooding and affect roads, rail and airports and water transport. Disrupt
traffic and safety and emergency evacuation operations; affect traffic boards andinformation signs. May lead to inundation and create
Sea level rise: Rise in sea level can affect the coastal roads, railways, port andharbour, airport near to coastal area, marine transport in the affected areas. In
many cases there may be need to realign or abandon the affected coastal
infrastructure.

Table 1 shows the impact matrix between the vulnerable infrastructure components andthe climate events.

X

X

X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X

X

X

X
X

X
X

Road signs

X

X
X

X

Water
transport

X
X

Airports

X
X
X
X
X

Ports andHarbourX

CoastalRoad andrails

X

Side slopes

Pavement

X

CulvertRail tracks

Temperature
Precipitation-Winter-SummerWind
Storm/Cyclone
Sea level rise

BridgeDrainsVulnerable
Infrastruct
ure

Table 1: Impact Matrix of Climate Events and Vulnerable Infrastructure in Asia

X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X

We see from the above the precipitation, storm and cyclone are most destructive climate
events affecting all vulnerable components of transport system. All infrastructure components
bridges, drains , culverts, rail track, pavement, side slopes, coastal roads and rails, ports andharbour, airports, water transport and road signs are impacted by precipitation, storm andcyclones. In many instances it may not be possible to quantify the impacts and qualitative
data to express impacts could be used (ADB, 1996).
Therefore, appropriate consideration of potential weather evens in planning, designing andmaintenance of the transportation system would increase their serviceability and life. Given
the importance of the transport infrastructure both socially and economically, it is importantthat the transport system adapts to the projected changes in climate.
4.3 Design Parameters Related to Vulnerable Infrastructure Components
Key design parameters corresponding to vulnerable infrastructure identified based on theliterature and studies related to the climate events in Asia are shown in table 2.
Table 2: Design parameters of vulnerable infrastructure components in Asia
Infrastructure component
BridgeDesign parameters needing consideration-Flood estimation, return period, design discharge

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

-High flood level-Free board (clearance above High Flood Level)-Length of waterway-Design load, wind load
-foundation, river and bank protection-corrosion protection
Drains-Discharge estimation (return period)-size and shape of drain-drain slope
Rail tracks-heat resistance material-rail line joints-expansion joins
Road and Pavement-camber to quickly remove surface water-stiff bitumen to withstand heat or workable in winter-soil moisture and maintenance planning
Culvert-Discharge estimation (flood return period)-size and discharge capacity-cross slope-Free board (clearance)
Side slope-slope protection work-subsurface drains-catch drains
Coastal road and rails-protection wall
-warning signs-realignment-edge strengthening
Ports and harbour-height of platform-protection work
-design for storm and surge actions
Airports-wind direction-runway alignment-snow and ice removal plan
-pavement material-drainage capacity
Water transport-bridge clearance-dredging-flood protection at sea entrance
Road signs-wind load
-structural design-foundation-corrosion protection
To overcome the impacts of climate change on the vulnerable infrastructure components
listed in the table 2 due considerations should be given to the corresponding design
parameters. While designing bridges, culverts and drains consideration should be given toincreasing design parameter such as the frequency and intensity of rains, introducing
sufficient subsurface water drains, increasing design high flood level of bridges. Whiledesigning costal road consideration should be given to predicted rise in sea level andproviding high and strengthened side barriers. Depending on the estimation of rise in waterlevel it may be feasible to realign an existing coastal road to a higher location. Adequate
slope stabilization measures, river bank protection works and raising embankment height inProceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

flood plains would safeguard road closure and damage to road due to excessive rains andfloods.
4.4 Survey of Impacts and Adaption in Asian Countries
A survey of climate change impacts on transport and adaptation in Asia was conducted tounderstand level of awareness, emergency preparedness, design standards and practices,institutional arrangements, and coordination, existence of policies, rules and design
guidelines, and current practices of incorporating climate change impacts on transport
projects. Total 24 responses from 21 counties (70% response rate) among 30 countries werereceived namely from: Azerbaijan; Bhutan; Cambodia; China; India; Indonesia; Iran; Japan;
Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan; Malaysia; Mongolia; Myanmar; Nepal; Pakistan; Republic ofKorea; Singapore; Thailand; Turkey; Uzbekistan; and Viet Nam. The following outlines thefindings of the survey.
4.4.1 Awareness of Climate Change and Adaptation
Most of the respondents (63%) indicated that the policy makers and transport officials areadequately or highly aware of environment, climate change and adaption. Eight respondents(27%) rated low or very low level of awareness. Majority of respondents (75%) rated theawareness of general public as low and very low. Only six respondents (25%) rated theawareness as adequate or very high. The survey indicates that there is a need to raiseawareness of general public and as well as policy makers and transport officials.
The respondents were asked to rate 14 climate changes and transport related statements on afive point scale (1-strongly disagree, 2-disagree, 3-neutral, 4-agree, and 5-strongly agree).
The outcome confirmed with broad beliefs on climate change and their potential impacts on
various transport infrastructure. Some of the high ranking statements are: (i) climate change
is a cause of concern (100); (ii) coastal infrastructure are vulnerable to climate change (100);(iii) climate events will affect transport and operation (99); (iv) poor driving condition due tofog, storm (98); and (iv) design standards and criteria may need to be revised (97). Most of
the respondents (79%) strongly disagreed or disagreed with the statement “Our region will
not be much affected by climate change.”
4.4.2 Emergency Preparedness
As transport play vital role in mobilizing immediate help and relief to the area affected by theextreme climate events, a section related to emergency preparedness was included in thequestionnaire. All respondents indicted that there had been occurrence of extreme climate
events within last three years. Majority (67%) of respondents rated that the responses to theclimate events by the relief and transport agencies have been normal, fast or very fast when
asked to rate the response as very fast, fast, normal, slow and very slow.
4.4.3 Design Standards and Practices
The respondents were asked to check appropriateness of sixteen design standards and practicerelated statements. The ranking of statements clearly demonstrate that rain, floods and related
damages are major cause of concerns in Asia. Highly ranked statements are: (i) ensure
effective drainage of surface water from pavement (camber, subsurface drains) (16); (ii)increase capacity of side drains (14); (iii) design flood estimation, storm water taking accountProceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009of predicted climate (14); (iv) Increase clearance above high flood level for bridges (13); and(v) raise height of embankment in flood plains (12).
Almost all respondents (92%) indicated the need to review design standards for criticalstructural components. While 83% of respondents expressed the need to revise design flood
estimation methods and indicated lack of clear guidelines to consider impacts of climatechange. All expect one (96%) voiced that potential impacts of climate change should beconsidered while planning and designing vulnerable transport infrastructure. Many
respondents (79%) agreed that adopting higher standards will have higher initial cost but may
be economical in long run. These finding clearly show that Asia lags in mainstreaming
climate change consideration while planning and designing transport infrastructure.
4.4.4 Policy, Guidelines, Institutions and Coordination
Mixed response was received as majority respondents (50%) saying that there are no existinglaws, rules and guidelines to assess environmental and climate change impacts. Respondents
from Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Republic ofKorea, Thailand, and Turkey indicated that there are existing laws, rules and guidelines. But
most of the laws, policy and guidelines listed are related to the environmental, global
warming, air pollution and very few were related to climate change. There seems to be clear
need for revision and extension of rules, polices and guidelines to include climate change andadaptation as 13 respondents indicated the need, while nine indicated the need for new policy
and guidelines and two indicating no need to revise or introduce new policy or guidelines.
Most of the respondents (88%) favoured extension of existing environmental guidelines toinclude the climate change and adaption issues. Eight respondents indicated having projects
related to environment, climate change and adaptation in transport sector. Some of the listed
projects are: road project in Nargis affected area in Myanmar; double tracking of railways inIndonesia; Qinghai-Tibet Railway line in China; eco-friendly logistics and green port masterplan in the Republic of Korea; study on adaptation and application on clean development
mechanism into transport sector projects in Thailand; and formation of climate change
working group and national inventory report for transport sector in Turkey. Most of the
respondents (79%) indicated the existence of central level coordination body responsible forenvironment and 63% indicated the existence of a coordinating unit/division in the line
ministries and road/ highway department. While many respondents also indicated non
existence of such units/divisions in railway organization, air transport and water transport
thus demonstrating a need to establish such unit. While asked to rate the coordination
majority of respondents (63%) rated as good or satisfactory level of coordination among
various transport sector organizations, while nine respondents (27%) rated coordination as
being poor or very poor. There is also a mixed response in terms of implementation ofenvironmental polices, rules and guidelines, majority (54%) rating as satisfactory and goodand eleven respondents (46) rating as poor or very poor. This clearly indicates the need for
greater collaboration and effective implementation of policies.
All but one respondent (96%) indicated the need for an awareness programme on climatechange. Eleven respondents indicated the need for awareness programme targeting high level
policy makers, followed by programme targeting project officers and managers (6) and thenhigh level government officials (5), and programme targeting general public (5). Therefore,
the survey demonstrates the need of environmental and climate change awareness programme
targeting all stakeholders in Asia.

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

4.4.5 Additional Feedback from the Survey
The survey also included questions seeking respondents suggestions for making transport
infrastructure safe and what should be done to safeguard transport infrastructure from impactsof climate change. Some of the notable suggestions provided are: undertake detail study of
impacts change on transport; integrate impacts of climate change in the present planning anddesign; need to change traditional way of dealing with climate events; update and revise
construction and drainage, standards, guidelines and code of practices; strengthen EIA
process to take account of climate change; plan awareness and education campaigns throughtrainings, workshops and seminar to increase understandings and awareness of politicians,
policy makers and general public; utilize available technology to predict weather moreaccurately and provide timely information to the designer and planners; develop a network of
meteorological centers; undertake a detailed survey of impacts of climate change; increaseplanning and design time horizon; ensure adequate periodic supervision of transport
infrastructure; provide adequate maintenance funds; avoid cost cutting measures however
evaluate technical and economic viability as well as life cycle costing of the proposed design;
incorporate climate proofing while developing national plans; undertake reasonable risk
assessment; increase investment in the road transport sector; plan adaptation measures on thecapability and affordability of the country; and ensure good cooperation among all
stakeholders and people in the society.
4.5 Adaptation Measures to Develop Resilient Transport
4.5.1 Adaptation Strategy
The survey disclosed that despite global efforts- Asia still lags in policy formulation andimplementation of adaptation measures for climate change impacts. The scale of impacts will
be different and are localized and much depends on the existing topography. Bangladesh,
Vietnam, Pacific Island countries and flat plains would mostly be affected. Tibetan plateau
and Central Asia would have different types of impact due to dry weather. All transport sectorroad, railways, airports, and marine and river transport will be affected in every aspect ofdevelopment and operation from planning, design, constriction, operation and maintenance.
Therefore, the adaptation strategy should cover all aspects of transport.
The following table 3 shows the adaptation options/strategy and policy measures in thetransport sector.
Table 3: Adaptation options and policy framework
Options/strategy
Realignment/relocation;
design standards andplanning for roads, railand other infrastructure
to cope with warming
and drainage

Policy frameworks
Constrains
Integratingclimate Financial
andchangeconsideration technologicalinto national transport barriers;
policy; investment in availability of less
R&D
for
special vulnerable routes
situations,e.g.
permafrost areas
Source: Adapted from Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report

Opportunities
Improved
technologies andintegration withkey sectors 9e.g.
energy)One of the adaptation strategies is to make infrastructure more robust against economic costof failure. A climate risk screening and management approach called ORCHID (Opportunities

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters) methodology has been developed by the Instituteof Development Studies (Tanner et al., 2007). The methodology helps development
organizations and their partners to integrate risk reduction and adaptation processes into theirprogrammes. They have implemented pilot projects in India and Bangladesh. In one transport
project in Bangladesh the study have evaluated options of raising road embankment level to
0.5 to 1.0 m to protect from flood and found that it is economically viable option. This
example clearly demonstrates the importance of design consideration while planning andbenefit over life span while considering economic cost of failure.
Adaptation can add costs, but not adapting can be more costly. Agrawala et al. (2008) havestudied costs of adaptation measures and mention that only limed cases are available in thetransportation sector. They conclude that there is a need to conduct a careful cost-benefit
analysis of adaptation measures. The design of adaptation progamme must be based oncomparison of cost avoided with costs of adaptation. Therefore proper adaptation measureneeds to be planned in well advances. Appropriate consideration of potential weather evens inplanning, designing and maintenance of transportation system would increase theirserviceability and life. The following section provides key adaptation measures during
planning, design, construction and maintenance phases.
4.4.2 Coordinated Planning
As the impacts of climate change are widespread proper coordination and planning ofadaptation measures are essential to ensure synergy. The survey showed that central level
coordinating body dealing with climate change existed in many Asian countries. The adaption
measures are site specific and localized collaboration is essential with central, regional andlocal agencies and to enhance sustainability of transportation system. Proper planning ofadaptation measures depends on the accuracy of impact assessment. While planning newtransport infrastructure it is therefore essential to consider the climate change. Studies haveadvocated integrated transport and land use planning avoiding coastal and areas forinfrastructure development.
Further, as transportation system is vital for evacuation planning and emergency response,more frequent monitoring of infrastructure condition during these events would be required.
The transport providers should also be integrated to the emergency response team and should
receive advance weather warnings so as predict potential failure and plan appropriate
response to safeguard the infrastructure, warn public to stay away from the road as well as tofacilitate evacuation and emergency response.
4.4.3 Designing Adaptation Measures
Incorporating new standards is relatively easy while planning new infrastructure. The only
issue would be to look at cost implication. The literatures also suggest that- if infrastructureis nearing rehabilitation they could be planned with higher standards. There would be very
little additional investment to incorporate design to adapt to climate changes. In many cases it
is economically feasible to design infrastructure components such as bridges, drainage, slope
protection walls- considering impacts of climate change and related design parameters suchas design high flood level, waterway, drainage area, subsurface drains, need due
consideration. While designing costal road consideration should be given to predicted rise in
sea level and providing high and strengthened side barriers. Depending on the estimation ofrise in water level it may be feasible to realign an existing coastal road to a higher location.

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

The survey clearly indicated that the rain, floods and related damages are major cause ofconcerns in Asia. It also confirmed the importance of need to review design standards forcritical components of transport infrastructure such as drainages, bridges, culverts,
pavements, coastal roads and railways, slopes which were highly ranked. Many literatures
have indicated that it may be beneficial to review the design life of various components of thetransport infrastructure. Studies have suggested that as current design standards may not be
sufficient to accommodate climate change and it stresses the need to develop new design
standards to address future climate conditions and projects in highly vulnerable locations
should be built with higher standards (Wooller, 2003; Humphrey, 2008). Short (2009) has
outlined that there is evidence already that our infrastructure design standards need to be reexamined to better deal with the consequence of climate change.
Surprisingly, despite scientific evidence of benefits of ‘superpave’ binder it took 25 years to
adopt and introduce the new standards in US (Meyer, 2008). In Asia the decision making
process may not take that long – but all proposals must be backed by technical and economic
feasibility with due consideration of climate impacts. It could be quite simple and easy toraise clearance of the bridge the above high flood level, to increase the size of a drain or
capacity of culvert. Therefore, while planning and designing infrastructure which needs
considerable investment- it would always pay to consider climate change in addition to
fulfilling the requirement to follow existing standards and guidelines. It could be the proper
time in Asia as well to review the estimation of floods, design storm parameters, discharge
estimations, design life, clearance of bridges, and other key design parameters.
4.4.4 Construction, Maintenance and Operation
The construction materials also play important role in adaptation and mitigating likely
impacts. Construction use of different grade of bitumen to suite the climate, comparison
between rigid (cement concrete) and flexible pavements, use of stiffer bituminous binding
material for road and airport runway pavement with low penetration value would overcome
affect of rise in temperature. In road construction to facilitate drainage the porosity ofaggregates and pavement materials are also very important.
Due to excessive heat, extreme rainfall and snow the frequency of maintenance activities
have to be increased. Regularly clearing the drains, vegetation, more frequent inspection ofsteel bridges for corrosion, road signs will be required. Installment of additional warning
information boards and signs, strengthening of coastal protection are needed.
4.5 Advocacy of Climate Change Impact and Adaptation
Despite numerous global research and efforts in tackling the issues of climate change, thelevel of understanding and coordination has yet to be matched with the requirement. It waspointed out that there is still scope of improving awareness and coordination even in UnitedStates and United Kingdom at least in the transportation sector (Wooller, 2003; Humphrey,2008). The survey clearly demonstrated the need to raise awareness of policy makers,transport officials and general public. In majority of developing Asian countries greaterawareness among all stakeholders is essential. The awareness initiative should target all
professional, policy makers, technical and politicians and private sector consultants andcontractors working in the transport sector. Asia needs to learn from experience of the otherregion- Europe and America as they are leading in terms of policy debate and analysis. Japan

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

and Europe has demonstrated successfully the carbon emission reduction. More studies
should be commissioned and implemented in Asia.
Multilateral institutions have just started to begun to integrate adaptation concern in theirprogrammes but it has not yet penetrated the policy makers. One of the important aspects ofadaptation is to streamlining responses to climate change policy in development planning(Burton et al., 2004; The Multilateral Development Banks, 2007). Most of these approaches
are general- not transport sector specific. Of the six case studies reviewed by the OECD not asingle case was related to transport (Agrawala, 2005). Mills et al. (2002) also acknowledged
the gap in understanding climate change impacts, adaptation and its costs. Bouwer et al.
(2006) have looked at the financing options and suggest that climate adaption should be seen
as general risk management issues and linking “climate proofing” of development projects tomanagement practice in national sectors and multilateral donors as a viable option. Therefore,awareness programme targeting the policy makers in developing countries on impact ofclimate change and adaptation as well as targeting developed countries and multilateral
institution on the needs of developing countries is essential.
4.6 Funding Adaptation Programme
Funding for climate change adaption programme is available. Developing countries canapproach for funding support available from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF)
programme. Two types of funds are available from GEF- least developed countries’ fund andspecial climate change fund. Other funding opportunities are also available under theframework of UNFCC. But there are very few adaptation projects on transport within Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) under the mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol and under the
Global Environment Facility is relatively small in comparison with other sector (Wright et al.,2005). The CDM may not be well suited to stimulate investment in transport sector indeveloping nations. Project proponents and countries may approach GEF, UNFCC, UNDP,
ADB, World Bank or other donors to enquire about the technical and financial resources forplanning and implementation of climate change adaptation projects and programmes. Asia
needs support- technical to know how dissemination as well as financial.
4.7 Guidelines for Mainstreaming Adaptation in Transport Projects
The environmental impact assessment process is well recognized and followed in Asia while
designing and implementing a project. The current practice is to assess the potential
environmental impacts of projects and mitigate and monitor the identified impacts during
construction and operation. Lemmen et al. (2004) felt the need of new standards, guidelines
and policies to enhance understandings of climate change.
The survey revealed that many countries have environmental guidelines and indicated theneed to revise and extend these standards to incorporate the issues of climate change andadaptation. This impact assessment and adaption process should also take into account therisks; uncertainty and vulnerability of climate change and incorporate the effect of predictedclimate events into project design. Impacts quantification involves expressing the expectedmagnitude of each impact in terms of appropriate quantitative physical units. Although there
are some initiatives by donors to introduce guidelines on climate change and adaptation- they
are general and not sector specific. It is felt that there is a need to have comprehensive
adaptation guidelines for the transport sector. As transport infrastructure needs very highinvestment – a thorough analysis following a prescribed/suggested process would ensure ‘fit

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.7, 2009

for purpose’ for intended life time. It may take some time to develop guidelines for thetransport sector on Assessment of climate change and adaptation. Therefore, it may befeasible to extend existing IEE/EIA guidelines (United Nations, 2002; ADB, 2003) to include
climate change considerations.
4.8

Institutional setup

The climate change will impact every sector. There should be coordination between various
agencies from central to the local level. To advocate, initiate and implement climate change
and adaption policy strong institution is essential. The institution need to properly plan,
coordinate and implement adaptation programmes. Though there have been many campaigns
in Asia on the issues of climate change and adaptation the region still lacks qualified
professionals particularly in developing countries. UK’s Office of Climate Change is a good
example of climate change policy coordination. Srinivasan (2006) argues adaptation must be
considered in an intergraded manner locally, nationally and internationally by mainstreaming
adaptation concerns in development planning and policy. A regional forum to elaborate
frameworks, capacity building and mechanism to transfer additional funding from developed
to developing countries. Therefore, the transport sector needs to train professional inassessment of climate change impacts and implementation of adaptation measures. Many
developing countries in Asia need technical and financial support to set up institution and forcapacity building training to implement adaptation programmes.
5. CONCLUSIONSThe study looked at the impacts of climate change on transport, identified vulnerable
infrastructure components and related design parameters. The study highlighted theimportance of planning and designing transport infrastructure considering the likely impactsof climate change. There is still much to be done to initiate policy guidelines for adaptationand its implementation. The process of reviewing designing standards and practices could be
relatively easier in Asia. Introduction of separate guidelines for designing infrastructuresconsidering climate impacts may take some time. It may be advisable that the existing
environmental impact assessment guidelines (UN, 2002; ADB, 2003) be extended to cover
climate change issues. Policy advocacy, awareness and institution are other factors essential
effective implementation of climate change adaptation programmes. Climate change being
relatively new area and the impacts of climate change being widespread effective institutionalarrangements is essential to ensure proper coordination among various stakeholders.
Availability of limited literatures on transport and climate change in Asia indicate further
research needs in area of country specific assessment of impacts and adaptation, costing
adaptation measures and review of design and guidelines for developing resilient
infrastructure.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the United Nations in providing
sabbatical leave to the corresponding author for the study.
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