The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project"Roadmap to Low-Carbon World''
13th-15th February, 2008,Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, TokyoLow carbon society in contrast to a society withmass consumption of energy and resources(Updated version)

Yuichi Moriguchi
Team Leader, Transport Subproject, JLCS2050
Director, Research Centre for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES
Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo
Chair, OECD/EPOC/WG on Environmental Information and Outlooks
Inaugural member, International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management1Contents
1.

Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2

2.

Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3.

Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4.

Purchasing decision of consumer durables:
cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time5.

Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (SoundMaterial-Cycle Society)2

Share of CO2 emissions by sector in Japan
Industrial
Processes
Waste
4%
3%
Commercial &Residential
Others5%
8%

Railway
Maritime
Aviation
Motorvehicle

Transport
19%

Other0%
EnergyIndustries
32%
Manufacturing
Industries andConstruction
29%
Total CO2 emissions
20053E m is s io n In d e x d e n o m in a te d b y 1 9 7 3 le v e l

TrendsofofGDP
GDP andby sector
TrendsandCOCOby sector
2 emissions
2 emissions
GDPTotal

200

GDP

Energy Industory
Industrial
Commercial & Residential

150

Transport

100

50

0
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

4

Contents
1.

Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2

2.

Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3.

Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4.

Purchasing decision of consumer durables:
cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time5.

Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound
Material-Cycle Society)5Japanese CO2 emissions structure from the viewpointof final demand (1975-2000) by I-O analysis
1400

Other exports

Change of the sector classification

Electric Machinery

Exports
1200

Transport machineryTransport
Iron&SteelCO2 emissions (Mt-CO2/y)

Stock change

FixedCap.
(pri.)

1000(pub.)

Other private capital
Machinery
Construction
Other public capital
Construction

800
Gov.
Cons.

600

Other government consumption
Education, medical & welfare service
Government Service
Other household expenditureTransport
Retail trade

400

House.
Cons.

Education, medical & welfare serviceServiceFood
Electricity consumption

200

Fuel consumption
Non Household Expenditure

01975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

6

Relationship between CO2 intensities and expenditures of households in JapanK. Nansai and Y. Moriguchi (2007), NIES, Japan

CO2 emissions per unit expenditure (kg-CO 2/10000 yen)

450

Petroleum and coal products (exc. gasoline)

400
Gasoline

350
Mains gas

300
Electricity<Note>
1. Y-axis value is based on the consumers' price basis.
2. The value includes emissions relating to imports, assuming they
have the same emissions as the domestic products.
3. The value includes not only emissions directly from a household
but also ones for supplying goods and services that the household
purchases.

250
Transportation

200

11.9%

Transportation machinery

13.2%

3.2%
3.4%

Water and sewerage

12.0%

150

2.8%

2.6%

Comunication and broadcast

Electrical machinery

0.9%
1.2%

100
50

9.7%
14.1%

Education, medical care and welfare

Fablic prod.
Foods

Services

15.1%

6.4%

3.4%

Others

00100

200

300

400

500

600

Annual average expenditure at a household in Japan (10000 yen/year)

7Contents
1.

Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2

2.

Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3.

Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4.

Purchasing decision of consumer durables:
cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time5.

Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (SoundMaterial-Cycle Society)8Size of passenger cars had been getting larger andcaused larger CO2 emissions since tax reform in 1989
Number of car possesions (Million)
60
50

CO2 emission[Mt-CO2]
140

Light passenger cars

120

Small passenger cars
40

Gasoline lightpassenger cars
Gasoline -2,000cc

100

Regular size passenger
8030Diesel & rotaryengine etc.
Gasoline 2,001cc-60

2040

10200
197001990

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

1995

2000

Tax system change:
abolition of the commodity tax
adoption of the consumption tax

9Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could account for over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]
10

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2.50

Tokyo Met.

2.00

Nagoya Met.

Osaka Met.

Other Areas

1.50

Freight vehicles

1.00

Passenger cars

0.50
0.00
[t/year]
0CO2 per capita20004000

6000

8000 10000 12000 14000

Accumulated population [million]

Each Area is categorized in
1. Major cities
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties

Passenger car emissions(t-CO2/capita)

11

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

Picture of EST1 (High tech.)Construction of H2
Supplying Station

Wind-generated
Electricity

Utilization ofBiomass Energy

Popularization ofFCEVs

More EnergyEfficient Mode

12

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

Picture of EST2 (Mobility change)
Shifting toRailways

Increase in Car
Occupancy

Utilization of
Telecommunication
Tools

Higher Loading
Rate

Shifting to Bicycle
and Walking

13

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

Picture of EST3 (Combination)
Utilization ofBiomass Energy

Shifting to Bicycle
and Walking

More Energy
Efficient Mode

Shifting toRailways
Utilization of
Telecommunication
Tools

Popularization ofFCEVs

Wind-generated
Electricity

14

Contents
1.

Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO22.

Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3.

Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4.

Purchasing decision of consumer durables:
cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time5.

Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (SoundMaterial-Cycle Society)15

Purchasing decision of consumer durables•

Consumer durables such as cars, air conditioners, refrigerators,
TV’s and other electric equipment have significant impact onhousehold energy consumption.

•Replacement to up-to-date efficient models is often encouraged, but
we have to keep in mind that shorter lifetime of durables lead toexcessive consumption of material resources and indirect energy
consumption and CO2 emissions.

•Payback time in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 should be carefully
examined for typical consumer durables.

•Reliable information with regard to cost payback time and CO2
payback time of expensive mitigating technologies such as
photovoltaic should be disseminated to consumers to guide theirinvestment decision.
16

Cost payback time of Hybrid Vehicle
2000 Euros

Gasoline price（JPY/l）

200175

1 Euro / l

150
125

3 years
5 years7 years
10 years

10075
50
0200
400
600
Additional initial investment in 1,000JPY(10,000km/year, 11.7km/l for conventional 20.3km/l for HEV)

800

17

Contents
1.

Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2

2.

Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3.

Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4.

Purchasing decision of consumer durables:
cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time5.

Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (SoundMaterial-Cycle Society)18

Massive flow of materials
Consumer products

Infrastructure

Resources
as source ofresourcesWastes

The global environment is finite

as sink ofresiduals
19Transition of socio-economic structure towards
more sustainable consumption and production
Sound material cycle
society (SMCS)

Mass-production,
mass-consumption,
mass-disposal society

One-way

Recycling-based
Cycle-oriented
Sound material-cycle

Savingresources

大量生産・大量消費・大量廃棄型社会

Reducing
burdens

循環型社会“Junkan”

20Types of possible behavioral changes
Direct, Short term, Individual• Day-to-day energy saving actions• Purchasing choice of daily necessaries• Transport modal choice• Purchasing choice of consumer durables tominimize lifecycle carbon emissions• Residence and workplace choices
Indirect, Long term, Societal+ Cultural aspect: e.g. Japanese spirit of “Mottainai”“Don’t waste what is valuable.”21