7th Asia-Pacific Conference on Plasma Physics, 12-17 Nov, 2023 at Port Messe Nagoya

Improving the REleASE solar proton forecasting capabilities with evidence ofparticle escape from the Sun: HESPERIA REleASE and beyond

O.E. Malandraki1, M. Karavolos1, K. Tziotziou1, F. Smanis1, A. Posner2,
M. Laurenza3, J. Barzilla4, E. Semones5, K. Whitman6, M. Leila Mays7, C. Didigu8,C.J. Stubenrauch9, B. Heber10, P. Kühl10, M. Maksimovic11, V. Krupar12, N. Milas1
1IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens,2NASA Headquarters,3 Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali, 4 Leidos Inc.,
5NASA Johnson Space Center, 6 University of Houston, 7 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
8ADNET Systems, 9 Catholic University of America, 10 Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel,
11Observatoire de Paris, 12 University of Maryland Baltimore County
e-mail (presenter): kostas@noa.gr
Providing reliable forecasts of Solar Energetic Particle(SEP) events is mandatory for human spaceflight beyond
low-Earth orbit, especially outside the Earth'smagnetosphere. High-energy SEPs are tracked because
they penetrate deeper into the terrestrial atmosphere andcontribute to the radiation dose aboard spacecraftspecifically over Canada and the Southern Indian Ocean,due to the tilt of the Earth on its axis[1]. Based on theRelativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration(REleASE) forecasting scheme[2], the HESPERIAREleASE product was developed by the HESPERIA
H2020 project (Project Coordinator: Dr. OlgaMalandraki) and generating real-time predictions of theproton flux (30-50 MeV) at L1, making use of relativistic
and near-relativistic electron measurements by theSOHO/EPHIN
andACE/EPAM
experiments,
respectively[1,3].
The HESPERIA REleASE tools are operational
through the Space Weather Operational Unit of theNational Observatory of Athens, accessible through thededicated website (http://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr).
HESPERIA REleASE has attracted attention from various
space organizations (e.g., NASA/CCMC, SRAG), due tothe real-time, highly accurate and timely performanceoffered. ESA selected the HESPERIA REleASE productsthat were integrated are provided through the in the ESASpaceWeather(SWE)ServiceNetwork(https://swe.ssa.esa.int/noa-hesperia-federated) under theSpace Radiation Expert Service Center (R-ESC). Solar
cycle 25 solar radiation storms successfully predicted byHESPERIA REleASE are presented and discussed.
Moreover, we present a currently implemented
upgrade to HESPERIA REleASE+ that is using the novel
approach of combining near-real-time type III solar radio
burst observations by STEREO/SWAVES instrument,
signifying clear evidence of particle escape from the Sun,with the HESPERIA REleASE system. To this end, we
have developed an automated algorithm for identification,
classification, estimation and use of spectral type III solar
radio bursts, taking into account several burst properties
including thresholds at 1MHz[4] and drift rates. This is
expected to lead to a substantial improvement of theaccuracy and reduction of false alarms.
References[1] O.E. Malandraki & N.B. Crosby, Space Weather, 16, 591,
(2018)[2] A. Posner, Space Weather, 5, S05001 (2007)[3] O.E. Malandraki et al., EGU General Assembly, Geophys.
Res. Abstracts, 21, EGU2019-13884, (2019)[4] M. Laurentza et al., Astroph. Journal, 857, 107 (2018)

Figure 1. Solar Radiation Storm successfully predicted by HESPERIA REleASE on 28 March 2022.