HI-AWARE
Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience
Research on Glacier and Snowpack
Dependent River Basins for Improving
Livelihoods
Dr. Bashir Ahmad
Principal Investigator HI-AWARE
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council Islamabad

Dr. Bashir Ahmad
PSO/Co-Principal Investigator HI-AWARE
PARC, Islamabad

HI-WARE Focus:•

HI-AWARE – is a regional initiative in South Asia

•Single methodology for region•ICIMOD is regional partner for coordination•Prominent researchers of Wageningen UniversityNetherland, Future Water and Osburg University
Germany, Colorado University USA are knowledgepartner•

Based on intensive field monitoring, piloting,demonstration & scenario modelling•Synergies between science base knowledge andcommunity adaptation practices•

Addressing food/agriculture, water, energy, health,urban habitat sectors•

Economic of adaptation/Climate Action•Focus on Climate Communication from communitypractitioners to policy makers

Thank youImplementing Partners
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
WAPDA
NUST, Karakorum University Gilgit, GCUniversity Faisalabad
OFWM, Punjab

Research Question
How to develop timely adaptation
measures and approaches
to respond to rising temperatures,seasonal shifts in glacier and snowmelt
induced runoff, and increased frequencyof extreme eventsin the HKH mountains and floodplains
in order to improve the resilience oflivelihoods of the poor and vulnerable?

Methodology

Generation ofKnowledge

RC-1 Biophysical drivers and Impacts– developing detailed mountain-specific and basinscale climate change scenarios;– improving cryosphere-hydrological modelling toassess significant shifts in river-flow regimes, withan aim to develop water-demand and supply
scenarios as well as to improve and apply waterfood impact models– helping researchers better understand climatechange’s impacts on extreme events (heat waves,floods, droughts), and quantify these extremes fromclimate models and, subsequently, impact models.

RC-1 Biophysical drivers
and Impacts
Climate Modelling• Historical climate data sets (1981-2010) of P, T
• Development of Future scenarios (2010-2100) based onDaily,– Precipitation, T, ETref– Entire IGB at 10x10 km resolution– Upstream IGB at 5x5 km resolution• 2 RCPs x 4 GCMs = 8 scenarios, covering broad range of
projected changes in climate– RCP4.5: T increase of 1.7 to 3.5 oC (2071 to 2100 vs1971 to 2000)– RCP8.5: temp increase of 3.6 to 6.3 oC (2071 to 2100vs 1971 to 2000)

High-resolution historical climate dataset
Dataset properties– 1981-2010, daily P, Tavg,Tmax, Tmin, ETref– 5x5 km for upstream IGB– 10x10 km for total IGB

Uncorrected

Corrected

Climate modeling

Cryosphere Monitoring Network (Hydro-meteorologicalequipment) in Shimshal Valley to address KarakoramAnomaly• Automatic Weather Station(AWS) above 5000 m.a.s.l.
(04 No.)• Pluvio Rain Gauge System(10 NOS.)• Temperature Loggers (20NOS.)• Tipping Bucket Rain
Gauges (06 NOS.)• Water Level Sensors (04NOS.)
PARC, PMD, ICIMOD, Future Water

Pluvio Meter for a High Altitude Site

High Resolution Monitoring of Surging
Glaciers using a UAV

Automatic Weather Station

Snow Water Equivalent Sensors

Correction of precipitation distribution in the highaltitude catchments of the Indus basin

Validation of Kriging with External Drift (KED) interpolation
scheme based estimated precipitation a) with specificrunoff, b) with glacier cover
Zakir, Bashir & Edyy (2016). Journal of Science of the Total
Environment. Impact factor 5.9

To analyze
altitudinal
dependency ofprecipitation inthe high-altitude
Indus, basin(KED)
interpolation
scheme withelevation as apredictor toappraise
spatiotemporal
distribution ofmean monthly,
seasonal andannual
precipitation forthe period of1998–2012 hasbeen usedAn appraisal of precipitation distribution in thehigh-altitude catchments of the Indus basin

RiverBasin

Pre-monsoon
MonsoonWinterAnnualERAI WEI TRM APH ERAI WEI TRM APH ERAI WEI TRM APH ERAI WEI TRM APH

Indus-U
ZanskarShingoIndus-Khar
Shyok
ShigarHunza
GilgitAstoreIndus-M
Indus-L
Indus-Tar
ChitralSwat
JhelumChenab

0.21
0.33
0.46
0.27
0.49
1.12
0.77
0.42
0.65
0.45
0.77
0.47
0.50
0.70
0.91
0.84

0.37
0.89
1.18
0.60
1.22
2.55
2.06
1.16
1.85
1.24
1.09
1.09
1.03
1.03
1.56
1.70

0.52
1.01
1.11
0.71
1.35
3.29
2.27
1.58
1.82
1.70
1.32
1.30
1.73
1.28
1.32
1.47

0.86
1.70
1.84
1.19
1.73
2.57
2.77
1.22
1.75
1.33
1.11
1.50
1.27
1.11
1.54
1.83

0.36
0.61
0.53
0.44
0.84
1.38
1.07
0.740.57
0.42
0.51
0.64
0.96
0.39
0.68
0.80

0.57
0.84
0.79
0.66
8.74
7.67
9.75
2.11
1.26
1.05
1.03
3.43
1.42
0.88
0.98
1.05

0.63
0.83
0.80
0.70
1.45
1.56
1.62
1.46
1.17
0.92
1.01
1.07
1.56
0.93
0.96
0.76

0.96
1.80
1.67
1.25
2.32
3.35
3.87
2.72
2.37
1.93
1.11
1.94
2.47
1.02
1.41
1.35

0.47
0.66
0.60
0.53
1.08
1.81
1.12
0.48
0.84
0.38
0.92
0.76
0.72
0.86
0.87
0.87

0.35
1.53
1.53
0.78
1.03
2.61
1.60
0.88
2.08
0.85
1.51
1.08
1.09
1.38
1.90
2.58

0.59
1.72
1.97
1.04
2.38
4.52
2.33
2.23
3.22
1.82
2.01
1.84
4.44
1.43
1.51
1.75

1.05
2.81
3.02
1.72
2.61
6.30
5.49
3.23
4.11
2.21
1.80
2.60
2.98
1.36
1.80
2.11

0.32
0.59
0.56
0.42
0.82
1.53
1.04
0.52
0.74
0.40
0.71
0.63
0.69
0.62
0.82
0.89

0.45
1.23
1.26
0.74
1.53
2.93
2.29
1.17
1.86
0.99
1.27
1.24
1.10
1.18
1.51
1.77

0.59
1.30
1.35
0.86
1.75
3.17
2.11
1.79
2.07
1.43
1.47
1.43
1.88
1.27
1.27
1.28

Basin-wide, seasonal and annual correction factors for each
gridded precipitation product

0.95
2.41
2.41
1.49
2.41
4.23
4.23
2.22
2.82
1.73
1.37
2.09
2.14
1.22
1.63
1.84

Crop-specific seasonal estimates ofirrigation water demand in South Asia
Input

Processes

Potential / actual cropand grass yield/
production

Climate parameters(Temp, Precipitation andRadiation)

Soil & land use data
CO2, country specificefficiencies

Output

Bio-Physicalprocesses
Phenology, AETInterception, Soilwater &Temperature,
Irrigation water,
Photo synthesis

Crop irrigation water
demandIrrigation water supply,
Irrigation water
consumption
Rain water consumption

Hester Biemans, Bashir Ahmad, Christian Siderius (2016). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
JPLmL Model

Net (consumption) vs. gross (withdrawal) irrigation water
demand in billion m3 for South Asian countries

Net irrigation water demand (bcm)/ dayRabi

Net irrigation water demand (bcm)

Crop specific periods of peak water
demand forming Critical Moments

Indus

SummerKharifGanges

Rabi

BrahmaputraRC3: Assessment of climatechange adaptation measures– Develop robust evidence on the effectivenessand applicability of adaptation practices andpolicies against region-specific critical
moments in the four sectors.
– Develop new approaches to conduct inclusive
socio-economic cost-benefit analysis ofadaptation practices and policies such as the
Marginal Cost Method.
– Developing demonstration and piloting sites inthe study basin for demonstration of climate
smart interventions

Glacier and Snow-fed Irrigation
Systems• Melt – Water from snow and glaciersis the only mechanism for irrigationin most Upper Indus Basin• Glacier and snow-fed irrigation
systems support the food security
and livelihoods of the majority of thepeople living in the high altitudeareas• This study has been designed todevelop evidence on the Melt-Water
irrigation regimes and access gapsthat need further Investigation.

Glacier and Snow-fed Irrigation
Systems
Major Research Questions• What is the extent, importance, role, characteristics ofmelt-water irrigation and its contributions tolivelihoods?
• What is the level of well-being trends in terms ofgender inclusive socio-economic changes, whether
these have been changing since the past decade, andif so what changes have occurred?
• To what extent are people dependent on melt-water
irrigation versus other sources of livelihoods, and how
has this been changing over the past decade?
• What issues need further investigation, which will act
as a basis for designing 2017 research program?
• What is the interest of community in collaborative
action research?

Adaptive Water Governancein Himalayan Towns
Introduction•••

Study to identify the issues ofurbanization and climate change in the
Himalayan towns.
This study is focusing on urban water, its
management, its governance andimpacts of climate change on urbanwaterThis study is focusing on emerging
urban settlements in Himalayan river
basins, such as “Murree” in Pakistan

Management of Pilot

1. Selection

2. Planning

5. Impact
Evaluation

Adaptive Management
through continuos
Learning
3.
Implementation

4. Monitoring

1. Selection of Pilots: potential outscaling and upscaling- clear ToC
2. Planning Stage:• Stakeholder Led Planning• Good Baseline for M&E• Participatory M&E.
3. Implementation of Pilots• Consultation with communities &government, CBOs and NGOs.
4. Monitoring & Evaluation• PM&E• Reporting• Lessons Learnt
5. Impact Evaluation• Rigorous impact evaluation to see
viability, out scaling and potential for
upscaling and policy uptake

Quality Evaluation Processes
The objective is to be confident on attributing the change
to the intervention with robust evidence•

Setting up before and after &Comparison Group–––•Continuous Participatory Monitoring––•

Socio-economic data collection
Bio-physical and climate data
Visual documentary and stories

Lessons Learnt and Course Correction
In Certain cases midline survey

Through scientificstatisticaltechniques

Through Qualitative
Participatory
Techniques

Evaluation––––

Programme Management Evaluation
Programme Impact Evaluation
Assessment of expected outcomes,
viability and relevance for outscaling and upscaling’Through scientificstatisticaltechniques• Communication & Reporting– Policy Recommendations– Outscaling and Upscaling Strategies– Final Pilot Project Report

Outscaling andUpscaling
Strategies

Example of the design- Chakri, Pakistan

Study Areas in Pakistan

Hunza Basin Study Sites

Chaj Doab Area

Piloting of various water and energy smart
technologies at training site Chakri

Achievements to Date
• Situational Analysis in 03 Study Areas• External KMC Strategy• Data Management Policy• 2 fully supported PhDs in Netherland(1 woman, 1 man )• 1 partially supported PhD in Germany• 10 MSc students (3 women)• 02 high impact factor journal publication• 3 journal articles• 3 Working Paper (9 in pipeline)• 5 stakeholder engagement events• 3 blogs• RiU Strategy

1. Inventory of Glaciers and Lakes of Upper Indus basin (2001)Total number of Glaciers
Total glaciated area.........
Est. Ice Reserves..………

5,218
15041 sq km
2,738 cub km

Glacial Lakes...
2,420
Major Lakes…
1,328
Potential D. Lakes.. 3752

Updation of glacial lakes and dangerous lakes (GLOF)
Inventory (2013)

Year 2001-02
Glacial Lakes...
2,420
Lakes area sq. km
126.5
Potential D. Lakes..
52

Year 2013
3,044 134.8 36

Climate Variability and Change Analysis in Upper Indus basin

Major parts of the central valleys of UIB (below 3,500 m) are dominated by +10 - +20°C
temperature range during summer and by -10 - +10°C range in winter during 2000-2009
periodThe change in mean maximum temperature was positive in the valleys while it wasnegative over high mountain ranges during 1990-1999 & 2000-2009 periods.

Climate Smart Food Security
Modeat at Fateh Jang
Fateh Jang

Flood Extent and Risk Mapping of Nallah Lai Rawalpindi

Flood/Rain Extent - 31 July 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 16 Aug 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 27 Aug 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 10 Sep 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 21 Sep 2010

Flood inundation and Extent -2010 using Remote Sensing data

Province

Flood Affected Area
(km2)

(Acres)Punjab15111.1

3,733,947

Sindh

17551.0

4,336,863

KPK

4996.01,234,518

Balochistan

4871.6

1,203,769

Azad Jammu andKashmir

35.2

8697

42564.9

10,517,794

Pakistan

44

Soil erosion intensity map of Rawal
watershed area

Risk of soil erosion predictedin the Rawal watershed area

Erosion risk

Soil erosion rate
(Ton/ha/yr)

V. Low

0–1

77.0

28.3

Low

1 – 1058.2

21.4

Medium10 - 30

72.4

26.6

High30 - 100

45.4

16.7

V. High

>100

19.3

7.1

272.0100.0

Total

Area (km2)

Area %

Watershed Characterization and Monitoring using RS data
Relief and rivernetwork Ghabbir Dam

Landuse at watershed scale

Percent Slope of Watershed

Command Area landuse Ghabir Dam(Punjab)

46

Assessment of Water Conservation Potential of Rod Kohi
areas

47

Project Design Matrix for Country (Phase-I)
Country

PakistanRiver Basinthe Indus River basin

Lead Organization(s)UNESCO

Project Purpose

To upgrade the flood forecasting and early warning systems of Pakistan, and to conduct risk
mapping of flood plains along the Indus River

OutputOn-time and reliable flood forecasting and flood inundation extent information

Activites

To collect precipitation and discharge data and share it with other executing partners i.e.
ICHARM, NUST and UET for flood hydrological modeling.
To conduct soil hydraulic characteristics study in the catchment areas

Executor

FFD, NUST, UET, ICHARM, PCRWR, WAPDA, PIDA, SIDA

ExpectedPartner

UNESCO, NDMA, Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms, FFC

OutputTo update flood hazard map in lower Indus catchment(1) Data &Statistics

Activites(2) Risk
Assessment Executor

Identify the flood vulnerability based on past floods and designed floods
SUPARCO, JAXA

Expected
Partner

UNESCO, NDMA, Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms, FFC, WAPDA, SIDA

OutputIdentification of flood-prone area in the whole Indus River basin under land use change and land
cover change(3) Risk
Activites
ChangeIdentification Executor

Flood hazard mapping and development of a spatial visualization tool for flood risk
identification
SUPARCO, JAXA, PMD, PARC (land use change and land cover change)

Expected
Partner

UNESCO, NDMA, Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms, FFC, PIDA, SIDA

OutputFacilitate policy makers to help reduce the human and socioeconomic impacts of 48
flooding inPakistan

Output(4) Supportin Sound Activites
Policymaking
Executor

Facilitate policy makers to help reduce the human andsocioeconomic impacts of flooding in Pakistan
To analyse the existing National Disaster Management
Policy and help fill gaps and to facilitate the updation ofexisting SOPs for barrage and dam operations during
flood season
CDMP (Peshawar University), NUST

Expected
Partner

UNESCO, NDMA, Ministry of Planning Development andReform, FFC, IRSA, PIDA, SIDA

OutputStorage of rainwater to reduce water runoff causing
floods in lowland areas, reduction in soil erosion throughreduction in water runoff, capacity building ofcommunities on different land and water management
technologies, and utilization of harvested rainwater
through efficient means to grow high value crops(5) SupportinCommunity
Activitesof Practice
Executor
Expected

Community Based Training Program on Watershed
Management for Flood Control
PARC, SAWCRI,UNESCO, BARI, ABAD, OFWM

49

Thank you

Supported by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) andCanada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC)