Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts
Monitoring and Prediction SystemToshio Koike
The University of TokyoandInternational Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)
1

Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis
NCDC Global Met

Global CLVDAS Outputs
Optimized LDAS Parameters

AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCC

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Data Integration and Analysis System
To create knowledge enabling us to solve the Earthenvironment problems, to reduce the disaster risk,
and then, to generate socio-economic benefits,Energy andWater flux
BalanceHydrometeorology-Agriculture
Coupled Model
DynamicVegetation

RiceProduction

Irrigation
SystemRiverflow
Via Kinematic
Wave Equation

Water andEnergy Budget
Distributed
HydrologicalModel(WEB-DHM)

VerticalSoil moisture
ProfileLateral flow,
Gridded to
Flow-interval

DamOperation
4Wang, Koike, et al. JGR (2009)

Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis

Optimized LDAS Parameters
AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCC

NCDC Global Met

River Discharge
Soil Moisture
Ground WaterDam Storage
Crop Production

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Real Time Data Management System

Water-Energy Budget
Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM)

Global CLVDAS Outputs

River Discharge (obs. & simulated)

LAI (obs. & simulated)

Seasonal variation of LAI by the Coupled Model (above) and MODIS (below)

Sawada, Koike, et al. WRR (2014)

- Agricultural Drought Index Drought indices (SA index)
Green:simulated annual peak LAI and Orange:nationwide crop production

Drought

R =0.89

 The drought index calculated from the model-estimated annual peak of leaf areaIndex correlates well with the drought index from nationwide annual crop production.
 Severe droughts (food shortage) in 1988-1989 and 1994-1995 are reported on FAO
report [FAO, 2005]

Sawada, Koike, et al. WRR (2014)

AMSR-E

CoupledData Assimilation

AMSR2Electronic-Magnetic
Wave＋Land surface model
Yang, Koike, et al. JMSJ (2007)

Dynamic Vegetation Model
Sawada & Koike, JGR (2014)

Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis

Optimized LDAS Parameters
AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCCNCDC Global Met

Satellite-based Land
Data Assimilation(CLVDAS)
Water-Energy Budget
Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM)

River Discharge
Soil Moisture
Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Global CLVDAS Outputs

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Real Time Data Management System

1. Reanalysis
movieDrought analysis
Wheat production
2007 Morocco Drought
MoroccoLAI anomaly from CLVDAS

Algeria

Tunisia

Drought analysis
Wheat production
2008 Morocco, Algeria, & Tunisia Drought
MoroccoLAI anomaly from CLVDAS

Algeria

Tunisia

Drought analysis
Wheat production2010 Tunisia Drought
MoroccoLAI anomaly from CLVDAS

Algeria

TunisiaHydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis

Optimized LDAS Parameters
AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCC

NCDC Global Met

Satellite-based Land
Data Assimilation(CLVDAS)

Global CLVDAS Outputs

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Real Time Data Management System
Prediction
Ensemble Rainfall Prediction
Rainfall Pattern 1
Rainfall Pattern 2
Rainfall Pattern nWater-Energy Budget
Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM)

River Discharge
Soil Moisture
Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Ensemble Drought Prediction
Prediction Accuracy Evaluation
Bias Correction
WeightingRiver Discharge
Soil Moisture, Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Drought analysis
Wheat production
2007 Morocco Drought
MoroccoLAI anomaly from CLVDAS

Algeria

Tunisia16Agricultural-Drought Monitoring in Panjab
Winter, 2007

Summer, 2007

Preliminary

Satellite

Irrigation
Modelstatistics

Ground Water
Model

Improved

Land Use
Model
Model

Energy andWater flux
BalanceHydrometeorology-Agriculture
Coupled Model
Dynamic
Vegetation

Rice
Production

Irrigation
SystemRiverflow
Via Kinematic
Wave Equation

Water andEnergy Budget
Distributed
HydrologicalModel(WEB-DHM)

VerticalSoil moisture
ProfileLateral flow,
Gridded toFlow-interval

DamOperation
18Wang, Koike, et al. JGR (2009)

Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis

Optimized LDAS Parameters
AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCC

NCDC Global Met

Satellite-based Land
Data Assimilation(CLVDAS)

Global CLVDAS Outputs

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Real Time Data Management System
Prediction
Ensemble Rainfall Prediction
Rainfall Pattern 1
Rainfall Pattern 2
Rainfall Pattern nWater-Energy BudgetHydrological Model(WEB-DHM)

River Discharge
Soil Moisture
Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Ensemble Drought Prediction
Prediction Accuracy Evaluation
Bias Correction
WeightingRiver Discharge
Soil Moisture, Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Hydrometeorology-Agriculture Droughts Prediction System
DIAS Archives
Hydromet Data

Satellite

Seasonal Forecast

NASA GLDASJMA Reanalysis

Optimized LDAS Parameters
AMSR2
MODIS

GFDL
APCC

NCDC Global Met

Satellite-based Land
Data Assimilation(CLVDAS)

Global CLVDAS Outputs

Optimized RTM Parameters
LDAS Reanalysis Statistics

Real Time Data Management SystemPrediction
Ensemble Rainfall Prediction
Rainfall Pattern 1
Rainfall Pattern 2
Rainfall Pattern nWater-Energy Budget
Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM)

River Discharge
Soil Moisture
Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

Ensemble Drought Prediction
Prediction Accuracy Evaluation
Bias Correction
WeightingRiver Discharge
Soil Moisture, Ground Water
Dam Storage
Crop Production

21

Sawada, Koike, et.al., JGR (2016)