IAEA Technical Mtg. on Best Practices in Media and Public Communication for Nuclear Power Programs,Fukui, Oct. 5, 2015

Utilization of Nuclear Energy
andPublic Communication
Yoshiaki Oka
Chairman, Japan Atomic Energy Commission
Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo

The views expressed here are of my own and do not necessarily reflect those of JAEC nor the government
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Contents• Energy demand outlook, energy security• Global warming• Electricity prices/cost• Nuclear power utilization• Advances in LWR technologies• Risk communication/public information2

Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

3Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

4Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

5Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html

6Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

7Natural gas prices (2005‐2012)not stable
Japan (imported LNG)

Germany(Russian boarder)

UK (ICE)

USA(NYMEX)

Source：JOGMEC, http://www.jogmec.go.jp/library/contents8_05.html

8Global warming

9Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

10Temperature rise in 2000‐09
Compared to average temperatures recorded between 1951 and 1980

The most extreme warming, shown in red, occurs in the Arctic

Source: Wikipedia；Global warming

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Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

12Electricity prices/cost

13Comparison of electricity prices
JYen/kWhIndustry

JYen/kWhHouseholds
JapanGermany
KoreaUSAUKFrance

出典：総合資源エネルギー調査会 原子力小委員会 第１回会合参考資料１、平成26年6月

14US electricity production cost
Nuclear is the cheapest after depreciation of the construction cost

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Source:http://www.world‐nuclear.org/info/Economic‐Aspects/Economics‐of‐Nuclear‐Power/

Source: http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/pamphlet/zumenshu/pdf/all_english.pdf

16Nuclear Power Utilization in Japan
43 LWR plants; BWR and PWR
9 utilities (TEPCO, Kansai, Chubu etc.) by region and JAPC andJ‐Power(EPDC)
First LWR demo (JPDR, 12MWe BWR) in 1959
First commercial plant (GCR) in 1965, LWR in 1970
3 Manufacturers; Toshiba/WH, Hitachi/GE and MHI
3 nuclear fuel manufacturers; GNF, Mitsubishi NF, NFI
Commercial nuclear fuel cycle program by JNFL (enrichment,spent fuel reprocessing and low level radioactive wastedisposal) in Rokkasho‐mura
Only for peaceful use, no nuclear weapon by law
Sendai‐1 started commercial operation on September 10,
2015.
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Electricity demand and supply in 2030
Power sources

Electricity demand
Economic
growth
1.7%／yTotal generation
1065
Billion kWh

Saving（‐17%）
Loss966.6
BillionkWh980.8
BillionkWh2013

2030

Renewables
22‐24%
Nuclear20‐22%Geothermal
BIomass 1.0‐1.1%
3.7‐4.6%
Wind 1.7%
Solar
7.0%
Hydro
8.8‐9.2%

LNG
27%
Coal26%
Oil 3%

2030

Source; Long‐term energy supply and demand outlook, July 2015 METI

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Advances in LWR technologies
Q: How to utilize computer
technology for design,construction and maintenance?

19Design by Hand drawing (1975’s)“Source: Kawahata, Hitachi‐GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Intn’l Summer School of Nuclear Power Plants, Tokai‐
20mura, Univ. Tokyo 2009"

Design by plastic model (1985’s)“Source: Kawahata, Hitachi‐GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Intn’l Summer School of Nuclear Power Plants, Tokai‐21mura, Univ. Tokyo 2009"

Design by 3D CAD (1990’s)“Source: Kawahata, Hitachi‐GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Intn’l Summer School of Nuclear Power Plants,
Tokai‐mura, Univ. Tokyo 2009"22

Plant integrated CAE system (present)“Source: Kawahata, Hitachi‐GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Intn’l Summer School of Nuclear Power Plants,
Tokai‐mura, Univ. Tokyo 2009"23

Walk – through simulation with CAE

Source: Y.Oka (editor) “ Advances in light water reactor technologies”, Springer 201124

Modular construction“Source: Kawahata, Hitachi‐GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Intn’l Summer School of Nuclear Power Plants,
Tokai‐mura, Univ. Tokyo 2009"25

Contents:
PSA in design and maintenance ofABWR, Passive ECCS of APWR,
Severe accident mitigation featuresof APR1400, EPR core catcher,
Severe accident research in China,
Full MOX core design of ABWR,
CFD applications, Digital I&Csystem, 3D-CAD application toconstruction, Progress in seisimic
designAvailable from Springer, 295 pages
Based on the lectures ofInternational summer school of NPP
and young generation work shop“;
Bridgeing fundamental research andpractical applications” in 2009 in
Tokai-mura Japan
http://www.springer.com/engineering/energy+technology/book/978‐1‐4419‐7100‐526

Risk communication/public information27

• Acute healtheffect occurs
above threshold(high) dose.
• Linear non‐threshold model(linearhypothesis) isused forestimating latent
health effect(cancer) at low
dose

Potential Damage to Health

Health effect of low level radiation
Reliable
DatabaseKnown
Adverse Effects

No known
Adverse Effects

CA

Area ofControversy

2.4 mSv

100 mSv
BDose Causing Observable
Adverse Health EffectsAverage Yearly Exposure
from Natural Causes

Source: A.E. Waltar

Radiation Dose [mSv]28

Health implications of radiation exposure of the public
resulting from FDNPS accident(UNSCEAR 2013 Report, Appendix E)• “No discernible risk”: An increased incidence of effects isunlikely. Consequences are small relative to the baseline riskand uncertainties.
• The most important health effects would appear to be on
mental and social well‐being as a consequence of theevacuation and their displacement to unfamiliar surroundings,and the fear and stigma related to radiation exposure. For
example more than 50 hospitalized patients died either during
or soon after the evacuation, probably because of
hyperthermia, dehydration or deterioration of underlying
medical problems. Upward of 100 elderly people may havedied in subsequent months.
• Understanding full heath impact of accident forms animportant context for the Committee’s commentary.
UNSCEAR: United nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation

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“Maintaining health” should be the goal
• Order of “sheltering” made most people escape from theirhomes, but those weak in disaster (single elderly people,patents etc.) were left and separated from outside area.
• Displacement worsen health of the evacuees. No working(farming) increases instability of legs, sugar disease,fatness, osteoporosis• Displacement for avoiding low level of radiation exposure
increased other health risks. It is effective, only when otherrisks do not increase.
• Lack of exercise and fatness increase cancer risk 1.2 times,
equivalent to 100‐200mSv of exposure.
• Telling only “radiation” risk increased fear of “radiation”.
Radiation risk is a part of cancer risk. It is a part of healthrisk.
• “Maintaining health” should be the goal for avoiding
mental and social health effects of nuclear accidents.
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Source: Sae Ochi, Energy review pp7‐10, April 2015,(in Japanese)

Lessons of risk communication andactions at nuclear accidents• Risk communication should start from “Cancer riskof radiation exposure is NOT zero”. LNT modelshows that risk is NOT zero. Start telling “no risk”
was wrong, failed and increased fear of radiation.
It is logically impossible to prove “zero risk”.
• Various cancer risks exist in human life. Cancer riskof low radiation exposure is within the uncertainty.
• Comparing various cancer risks such as radiation,chemicals, etc. is necessary, but will be notenough to manage mental and social effects.
• “Maintaining health” is good goal for managing
the problems and taking actions at severe nuclear
accidents.
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Good practices for reducing mental/social
impact of Great east Japan earthquake• Single voice by the UK scientific advisor to British
residents in Japan• Temporary relocation keeping localcommunities/neighbors (Iwanuma city)• Early recovery from temporary relocation• Counseling of health, life, compensation etc.
We understand the scope of mental and social impact
for the first time in Japan by TEPCO Fukushima accident.
It will be useful for considering what to do for “socialsafety”.
It is necessary to study/summarize how to reduce theimpact .
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Public communication
successful examples of USA and UK:• NEI (USA); communication with congress andcentral media: NEI Smart Brief (news), media
training of utility people, poll, collaboration
with university research(journalism dept.)• Science media centre (UK): an independentpress office helping to ensure that the public
have access to the best scientific evidence andexpertise through the news media whenscience hits the headlines.
Source: http://www.nei.org/Knowledge‐Center
Source:http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/working‐with‐us/for‐journalists/

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Search by tag for journalists ofUK science media centre
agriculture Alzheimer's animal research autism
avian flu brain & neuroscience cancer climatechange cloning dementia depression diet &nutrition disaster earthquake Ebola energy
engineering epidemiology fertility flu food safety
genetics GM crops heart infectious disease law
mental health nuclear energy paediatrics & children
pharmaceutical drugs policy pollution pregnancy &babies psychology radiation recreational drugs sea
smoking sperm stem cells toxicology vaccines
virology weather
Source:http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/working‐with‐us/for‐journalists/34

Comments on communication withgeneral public in Japan• Way of communication is different from that of local
communities where person to person contact is possible.
• Information in English that meets the needs ofunderstanding “why” is abundant, but scarce inJapanese.
• Need to explain why policy/decision/opinion are decided.
• Prepare/disclose reports, articles, opinions withevidence.
• Make the information easily found in internet.
• Secondary utilization of paper‐based reports/opinions ininternet will help the understanding.
• Meet/adapt/utilize internet needs will be the key ofcommunication for future nuclear utilization in Japan.
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Thank you for your attention

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