Growth Policy Formulation
Can East Asia Teach Anything to Africa?

Kenichi Ohno (GRIPS)
March 2008

High Performance (on average)
East Asia achieved high average
growth in recent decades
4000
3500
Per Capita GDP(Measured in 1990
international GearyKhamis dollars)

Ea s t A s i a

3000
2500
2000

A f ri ca

1500
Source: Angus Maddison,
The World Economy: A
Millennium Perspective,
OECD Development Centre,
2001.

1000
50001950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1998

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Per Capita GDP in 2004 (＄PPP) World Bank data
05000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Hong KongJapan
TaiwanSingapore
Brunei
S Korea
MalaysiaThailand
China
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Cambodia
PNG
Mongolia
Laos
N Korea
MyanmarEast Timor

Green: participants in East
Asian production network

Diversity in Political andEconomic Development
Governance, WGI2005

High correlation(0.90) but
causality cannot
be argued fromthis diagram

600
Sin

Hkg

S Kor

Twn

500

Jpn

400

MalMong

Only circled
economies
participate inregional dynamism

Bru

Thai

300
Phil
VN

China

200
CambE Timor

Indo

PNG
Lao
N Kor
Mya

100

0100

1000

10000100000

Per capita income ($PPP2004, log scale)

Sources: Compiled
from World Bank,Worldwide GovernanceIndicators, Sep. 2006;
and World Bank, World
Development
Indicators, 2006.

2Different Speed of Catching Up
Per capita real income relative to US(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
100%

Japan
80%

TaiwanS. Korea

60%

Malaysia
Thailand40%

Indonesia
20%

Philippines
Vietnam
2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

0%

Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennium Perspective, OECD Development Centre, 2001;
the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF International Financial Statistics (for updating 1998-2006).

Wrong Lessons from East Asia
{ WRONG: Mindless copy of a policy adopted

by some E. Asian country in the past(ex. postal savings, heavy industry drive, GreenRevolution, etc)
{ WRONG: Strong government should direct

private sector activities(In East Asia, private dynamism informed and led
policy direction){ WRONG: An authoritarian state is neededfor economic take-off(research on “Democratic developmentalism”—canwe have development without a dictator?)3

Development and Aid Strategy
There is a clear difference in developmental
orientation between Eastern practitioners andWestern aid community.

East Asia’s WayGoal

Western Donors

Economic prosperity
and national pride

Poverty reduction(MDGs)

Policies Investment, trade,skills, technology
Key
Central government
actors and businesses

Health, education,
governance
Local communities
and poor people

Learning Industrial Policy
Formulation{ Political will and national obsession (notjust “ownership”){ Pursue growth policies and social policies(separable){ Vision Î goals Î action plans{ Field-based pragmatism, attention todetails{ A permanent process for continuously
setting goals and action plansÎ General ideas and methods for designing
unique policies for each country4Why Eastern Way Is Hard to Convey
to Others{ Emphasis on local diversity
No manuals or policy matrix; no answer available
immediately{ Emphasis on doing rather thantalking/writing/advocating

Lack of PR and framework, respect for quiet
action{ Language barrier
Internal reports in Japanese only

Our Proposal for
Japan’s New Aid in Africa{ Japan should concentrate additional aid ona few African countries with:-Strong political will (top leader)-Social and macroeconomic stability-Sufficient administrative mechanism{ Initiate policy dialogue for formulatingconcrete growth strategy{ Mobilize available aid tools for executing
agreed strategy{ Involve private sector and other donors5Similar Views
Our Report--Diversity and Complementarity
in Development Aid (2008), see pp.11-17.
ODA Manifesto by the Group for Renovating
Japanese ODA, compiled by GRIPS (2007).
MOFA Advisory Committee on International
Cooperation, Interim Report (2008).
JICA-JBIC Report, “Strategy for Sustained
Growth Acceleration in Africa: A View from
Asian Experiences” (in process, 2008).

ODA Manifesto by the Group forRenovating Japanese ODA (2007)
Proposal 27—Expand ODA for Africa,
especially grants.
Proposal 28—Establish a committee tospecialize in supporting Africa.
Proposal 29—Select model countries for“aid for graduation” and concentrateresources.
Proposal 30—Design special facilities tomitigate risks and promote private
investment in Africa.

6JICA-JBIC Report in Progress
Establish “Industrialization Strategy” as aprocess, not just a document.
1.
2.
3.
4.

Identify desired vision, economic structure,and positioning in global value chain.
Through public-private dialogue, discovergrowth-leading industries for future.
Identify their constraints (infra, HRD, etc).
Devise measures to remove constraints andpromote targeted industries.

Measures must be consistent with the country’s
institutional capability and executed underdiscipline and competition.

Japan’s Development Dialogue
in East Asia
{ Vietnam – Ishikawa Project (policy

research and dialogue among academics,officials & consultants, 1995-2001){ Laos – Hara Project (overall developmentstrategy, 2000-05){ Thailand – Mizutani Report for upgrading
SMEs and supporting industries (1999){ Indonesia – Continuous GovernmentBusiness Policy Dialogue, Urata Report(2000)

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Can We Replicate This in Africa?
The Case of Zambia{ JICA is conducting the “Triangle of Hope”

Project 2006-09 (improving investmentclimate) mobilizing a Malaysian consultant
under new methodology.
{ As a next step, Zambia wants Japan tohelp formulate a long-term industrialstrategy.
{ Japanese Embassy, JICA and myself
submitted a concept paper on steps
toward “Zambia Industrialization Strategy”(Dec.2007).

Our Suggestion for
Zambia’s Next Steps{ Precondition – forming a strong super-secretariat under President{ First stage (1 year preparation)--industry
surveys, studying East Asian experiences,receiving experts, seminars, website,
produce Basic Issues Report{ Second stage (2 years) – drafting
Industrialization Strategy with JICA
support-Top leader’s strong commitment is critical-Mainstreaming of this project among
donors and in Tokyo

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More Books from GRIPS
Ohno, Kenichi, and Izumi Ohno, eds (1998), JapaneseViews on Economic Development: Diverse Paths to theMarket, Routledge.
Ohno, Kenichi, ed (2006), Industrial Policy Formulationin Thailand, Malaysia and Japan: Lessons for
Vietnamese Policy Makers, Vietnam Development
Forum/Publishing House of Social Labour, Hanoi.
Ohno, Kenichi (2006), The Economic Development ofJapan: The Path Traveled by Japan as a DevelopingCountry, GRIPS Development Forum. Also available inJapanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Arabic.

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