Forecasts

Note:

The following is an English translation of the Japanese-language original.

Consolidated financial results
for the nine months
ended December 31, 2009

February 9, 2010

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd.
1copyright© JAPAN PETROLEUM EXPLORATION Co.,LTD.

All rights reserved.

Cautionary statement
Any information contained herein with respect to JAPEX’s plans, estimates, strategies and otherstatements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements about the future performance ofJAPEX. Readers should be aware that actual results and events may differ substantially from theseprojections due to various factors.
The provision of this document should not be construed as a solicitation for investment.
Copyright: All information contained herein is protected by copyright, and may not be copied or reproduced without the prior consent of JAPEX.

Note: The following abbreviations are used within this document:
1H = First half (1Q-2Q)
2H = Second half (3Q-4Q)(a) = Actual result(e) = Estimate
Any inquiries about the information contained herein or other Investor Relations questions should be directed to:Investor Relations Group, Media & Investor Relations Department,Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd.
TEL: +81(Japan)-3(Tokyo)-6268-7111

2

Business Overview

¥130

$130

¥125

[Price] $-denominated $/bbl

$140

$120

¥120

$110

¥115

$100

¥110

$90

Exchange Rate￥/$ (right axis)

$80
$70
$60

¥105
¥100
¥95

US$-denominated Price$／bbl (left axis)

¥90
¥85

$40

¥80
2007-01
2007-022007-03
2007-04
2007-05
2007-06
2007-072007-08
2007-09
2007-10
2007-11
2007-12
2008-01
2008-022008-03
2008-04
2008-05
2008-06
2008-072008-08
2008-09
2008-10
2008-11
2008-12
2009-01
2009-022009-032009-04
2009-05
2009-06
2009-072009-08
2009-09
2009-10
2009-11
2009-122010-01$50

Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) Price in the first ten days of January 2010 （prompt report basis）＄７７．６４ /bbl
¥ ９０．８９ /＄3[Exchange Rate] \ ／ $Trends in Crude oil prices and Foreign exchange rates

Business Overview

Revised consolidated financial estimate for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010
Billion¥Billion¥225

45

Net sales (left axis)
Ordinary income (right axis)
Net imcome (right axis)

202.1
200

173.1

175

FY2009(a)[ Billion ￥]Revised estimate
announced Aug.7

Revised estimate
announced Nov.6

202.1

129.3

153.4173.1

177.9

Operating income

20.0

0.9

6.5

8.0

11.2

Ordinary income

22.3

5.9

10.7

12.5

19.7

Net income

12.5

4.7

7.7

9.1

15.6

Net sales
40

177.9
35

FY2010(e)Initial estimate
announced May 14

Revised estimate
announced Feb.9[Oil price and Exchange rate assumptions]

153.4
150

30

JCC price($/bbl)

89.71

40.00

57.38

64.31

66.41

Exchange rate(￥/$)

102.56

90.00

91.39

92.43

92.73

129.3
125

25

22.3
19.7
100

75

20

12.5

12.5

15

15.6

7.7

9.1

25

50
FY2009(actual)

FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010Initial estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate
Feb.9, 2010
Nov.6, 2009
Aug.7, 2009
May 14, 2009

3rd Q (a)4th Q (e)($/bbl)

47.92

65.88

72.78

75.00

Exchange rate

(￥/$)

97.69

95.37

91.20

90.00

―【Main causes of revisions】―――――――――――
Announced Nov.6:
3Q $70.00/bbl⇒Announced Feb.9: 3Q$72.78/bbl

4Q $70.00/bbl
4Q$75.00/bbl

Bitumen prices:
Announced Nov. 6 :3Q CAD50.50/bbl
4Q CAD50.50/bbl⇒ Announced Feb.9: 3QCAD55.60/bbl 4QCAD58.50/bbl

4.70

2nd Q (a)JCC price105.9

1st Q (a)① JCC prices:10.750■FY2010 Revised estimate② Upward revision of “Dividends income”③ Add “Gain on change in equity”
4Business Overview

Sales results of natural gas and equity crude oil■ Sales volume of domestically produced crude oil（thousand KL）■ Sales volume of domestically produced natural gas
supplied by pipelines(million m3)
1,200～4Q 1,124～4Q 1,101

1,000
800
600

～3Q 775～3Q 767～2Q 487～2Q 481600～4Q 1,062(e)300～2Q 454(e)～ 3Q 398～ 2Q 253～ 3Q 391～ 2Q 255

1Q 253

1Q 243

1Q 134

1Q 227200～ 2Q 250

1Q 126

1Q 127100--FY2008

FY2009FY2010FY2008■ Sales volume of overseas subsidiary crude oil(thonsand KL)

FY2009600500500400400300300～4Q 417～4Q 409～ 4Q 144～ 3Q 106～ 2Q 83
1Q 41～ 4Q 141～ 3Q 111～ 2Q 76

1Q 41200～ 4Q 26～ 3Q 24～ 2Q 23
1Q 22FY2009～3Q 307～2Q 195
1Q 108(e)100～3Q 313～2Q 205
1Q 106～4Q 411(e)～3Q 299～2Q 188
1Q 98-FY2008

FY2010■ Sales volume of bitumen（thousand KL）

600

100～ 3Q 391

200400200～ 4Q 566

500
400～3Q 731～ 4Q 569～ 4Q 574

FY2008FY2010

5FY2009

FY2010Actual Results

Actual sales of Crude oilin the nine months ended December 31, 2009 (YoY comparison)
FY08
1Q-3Q
(a)

Crude oil:

FY09
1Q-3Q
(a)

FY10
1Q-3Q
(a)

Sales volume [thousand KL] 1,765
1,720 1,531
Net sales
88,781 105,819 55,270[million￥]
JCC price
Exchange rate(＄/bbl)(￥/＄)69.40
117.86108.89104.74

YoY change( 188)
( 50,549)

62.59
94.19

( 46.30)( 10.55)391
391
26,043 15,434
111
248,303630
313
299
14,975 7,410( 0)( 10,608)( 86)( 7,672)( 13)( 7,564)[ Breakdown of equity oil ]Domestically produced crude oil:Overseas subsidiary crude oil:
Bitumen:[thousand KL]
398[million ￥]21,264[thousand KL]
106

Sales volume
Net sales
Sales volume
Net sales
Sales volume
Net sales[million ￥][thousand KL][million ￥]5,117307
7,757

Sales volume and Net sales of “Domestically produced crude oil” stated herein do not include purchased crude oil.
Sales volume and Net sales of “Overseas subsidiary crude oil” are the sum totals of the sales volumes and net
sales reported by two overseas consolidated subsidiaries (Japex New Nanhai Ltd. and Japex (U.S.) Corp.).

6Actual Results

Actual Sales of Natural gas
in the nine months ended December 31, 2009 (YoY comparison)

Natural gas:

FY08
1Q-3Q
(a)

FY09
1Q-3Q
(a)

FY10
1Q-3Q
(a)

YoY change

Sales volume [million m3]

1,020

1,030

1,028

( 2)

[million￥]

32,72636,966 38,437

1,471

Sales volume [million m3]775

Net sales

Of which,

Domestically produced gas:

767731( 35)

Sales volume of “Domestically produced gas” stated herein does not include purchased gas.

Sales volume

Decreased 0.2% year on year (almost flat level)

Slowdown in industrial demand amid deteriorating economic conditions and decline in demand for local
districution companies
Start of supply to new industrial customers

Net sales

Increased 4.0% year on year

Differential profit by price revisions of prior periods

7Actual Results

Consolidated financial results in the nine months ended December 31, 2009and its causes of income fluctuations (YoY comparison) Actual results for the nine months (consolidated)[ million ￥ ]FY09
1Q-3Q(a)

FY10
1Q-3Q
(a)

YoY change

Net sales

164,912 118,844 ( 46,067)

Gross profit

57,18437,023 ( 20,161)

Exploration expenses

13,1998,021( 5,177)

SG&A expenses

24,28022,566( 1,714)

19,704

6,435 ( 13,268)

Operating income

193

3,538

3,344

Ordinary income

19,8989,974( 9,924)Extraordinary income (losses)( 4,416)

904

5,320

Non-operating income (expenses)≪Causes of income fluctuations ≫Gross profit
Domestic crude oil and natural gas
Overseas consolidated subsidiaries(¥7.3 billion)(¥12.2 billion)

breakdown: JACOS(¥5.8bn.), Japex New Nanhai (¥6.1bn.), JUS(¥0.3bn.)

Exploration expenses
Domestic exploration
Overseas exploration(¥4.7 billion)(¥0.3 billion)

SG&A expenses
Special petroleum gain levy of China(¥1.8 billion)

NonNon-operating income (expenses)
Loss on valuation of securities
Foreign exchange losses
Equity in earnings of affiliates¥1.7 billion¥1.0 billion¥1.0 billion

Extraordinary income (losses)(losses)
Income taxes

3,968

2,050

( 1,918)

Minority interests in income

1,091

582

( 509)Net income

10,4208,245( 2,175)
8

Impairment loss and loss on retirementof noncurrent assets of production wells ¥4.5 billion
Gain on change in equity¥1.1 billion

Forecasts

Revised estimate sales of Crude oilfor the fiscal year ending March 31, (YoY Comparison)
FY2008
1Q-4Q(a)Crude Oil:

YoYchange

2,337

1,531

595

2,126( 211)

[million ￥]128,391 115,933

55,27024,53279,802( 36,131)(＄/bbl)76.21
114.6689.71
102.56

62.59
94.19

75.00
90.00

66.41
92.73

( 23.30)( 9.82)

574

569

391

175

566

( 3)

32,17030,974

15,434

7,343

22,777( 8,197)

144

141

24

226( 115)

7,483

9,065

630

46676

( 8,389)

409

417

299

112

411

( 6)

10,46813,087

7,410

4,047

11,457( 1,630)

Sales volume[thousand KL]

Net sales
JCC price

Exchange rate (￥/＄)2,450

FY2009 FY2010 Revised estimate announced Feb.9
Full(1Q-4Q)
1Q-4Q
1Q-3Q
4thQ
(e)
(a)
(a)
(e)

[ Breakdown of equity oil ]Domestically produced crude oil:Overseas subsidiary crude oil:

Bitumen:Sales volume[thousand KL]

Net sales[million￥]

Sales volume[thousand KL]

Net sales[million￥]

Sales volume[thousand KL]

Net sales[million￥]

Sales volume and Net sales of “Domestically produced crude oil” stated herein do not include purchased crude oil.
Sales volume and Net sales of “Overseas subsidiary crude oil” are the sum totals of the sales volumes and net sales
reported by two overseas consolidated subsidiaries (Japex New Nanhai Ltd. and Japex (U.S.) Corp.).

9Revised estimate sales of Natural gas
for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010 (YoY Comparison)

Natural gas:

Sales volume [million m3]
Net sales

Of which,

Domestically produced gas:[million ￥]Sales volume [million m3]

Forecasts

FY2010 Revised estimate announced Feb.9

FY2008
1Q-4Q(a)

FY2009
1Q-4Q
(a)

1,486

1,485

1,028

453

1,481

( 4)

48,982 54,126

38,437

16,58355,020

894

731

331

1,062

( 39)

1,124

1,101

1Q-3Q

4thQ

(a)

(e)

Full(1Q-4Q)(e)

YoYchange

Sales volume of “Domestically produced gas” stated herein does not include purchased gas.

Sales volume

Decreased 0.3% year on year (almost flat level)

Slowdown in industrial demand amid deteriorating economic conditions and decline in demand for local
districution companies
Start of supply to new industrial customers

Net sales

Increased 1.6% year on year

In addition to the decrease of sales volume,the decrease of the sales prices which adopt the pricing formula linked to the Japan LNG Cocktail (JLC) priceDifferential profit by price revisions of prior periods

10Forecasts

Consolidated financial estimates for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010
and its causes of income fluctuations (YoY comparison)
 Revised estimate for the FY2010
FY09
1Q-4Q
(a)

FY10
1Q-4Q
(e)

YoY changeNet sales

202,127

177,851( 24,276)

Gross profit

67,68052,688( 14,992)

Exploration expenses

15,352

10,427( 4,925)

SG&A expenses

32,23731,069( 1,168)

Operating income

20,09011,192( 8,898)

Non-operating income(expenses)

2,267

8,536

6,269

Ordinary income

22,35819,728( 2,630)Extraordinary income(losses)( 5,250)

965

6,215

Dividends income
Loss on valuation of securities
Provision of cost of abandonment
Foreign exchange losses

Income taxes

3,565

4,314749

Extraordinary income (losses)(losses
Impairment loss and loss on retirementof noncurrent assets of production wells ¥4.5 billion
Gain on change in equity¥1.2 billion[ million ￥ ]Minority interests in income
Net income≪Causes of income fluctuations ≫Gross profit
Domestic crude oil and natural gas
Overseas consolidated subsidiaries(¥5.9 billion)(¥8.0 billion)

breakdown: JACOS(¥1.3bn.), Japex New Nanhai (¥6.4bn.), JUS(¥0.3bn.)

Exploration expenses
Domestic exploration
Overseas exploration¥5.1 billion(¥0.2 billion)

SG&A expenses
Special petroleum gain levy of China ¥1.8 billion
Depreciation expense ofsales and transportation section(¥0.7 billion)

NonNon-operating income (expenses)

981813( 168)

12,56015,566

3,00611¥2.6 billion¥1.7 billion¥1.3 billion¥0.9 billion

Forecasts

Revised estimate sales of Crude oilfor the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010(compared with November 6, 2009 estimate)
FY2010 Revised estimate announced Feb.9 compared
FY2010FY2010FY2010Initial estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate 1Q-3Q
Full(1Q-4Q) with
4Q
Nov.6
announced
announced
announced
(a)
(e)
(e)
estimate
May14 (e)Nov.6 (e)Aug.7 (e)Crude Oil:

2,194

2,132

2,123

1,531

595

2,126

3

Net sales[million ￥]46,97068,47174,78355,27024,53279,8025,019

JCC price(＄/bbl)

40.00

57.38

64.31

62.59

75.00

66.41

2.11

Exchange rate (￥/＄)90.00

91.39

92.43

94.19

90.00

92.73

0.30

593

575

573

391

175

566

( 7)13,843

19,61422,083

15,434

7,343

22,777

694

21

2625

24

2

260

470

673

656

630

46676

19

437

406

401

299

112

411

10

6,276

8,903

9,416

7,410

4,047

11,457

2,041

Sales volume [thousand KL][ Breakdown of equity oil ]Domestically produced crude oil: Sales volumeNet sales

Overseas subsidiary crude oil:[million￥]

Sales volume [thousand KL]
Net sales

Bitumen:[thousand KL][million￥]

Sales volume [thousand KL]
Net sales[million￥]

Sales volume and Net sales of “Domestically produced crude oil” stated herein do not include purchased crude oil.
Sales volume and Net sales of “Overseas subsidiary crude oil” are the sum totals of the sales volumes and net sales
reported by two overseas consolidated subsidiaries (Japex New Nanhai Ltd. and Japex (U.S.) Corp.).

12Forecasts

Revised estimate sales of Natural gas
for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010 (compared with November 6, 2009 estimate)
FY2010 Revised estimate announced Feb.9 compared
FY2010FY2010FY2010Initial estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate 1Q-3Q
Full(1Q-4Q)
4Q
withannounced
May14 (e)Natural gas:announced
Nov.6 (e)

(a)

(e)

(e)

Nov.6
estimate

Sales volume [million m3]

1,545

1,508

1,469

1,028

453

1,481

13

[million ￥]53,41555,60454,242 38,437

16,58355,020778

Sales volume [million m3]

1,128

1,071

1,040

331

1,062

22

Net sales

Of which,
Domestically produced gas:announced
Aug.7 (e)731

Sales volume of “Domestically produced gas” stated herein does not include purchased gas.

Sales volume

Increased 13 million m3 (+0.8%)
compared with the previous estimate announced on November 6, 2009Net sales

Increased ¥0.7billion (+1.4%)
compared with the previous estimate announced on November 6, 2009
Breakdown :Increase of sales volume ¥0.4 billion
Increase of sales price¥0.3 billion

13Forecasts

Consolidated financial estimates for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010
and its causes of income fluctuations (compared with November 6, 2009 estimate) Revised estimate for the FY2010
FY2010
1Q-4Q[ million￥ ]comparedwith
announced announced
Nov.6
Nov.6
Feb.9
estimate(e)(e)

Net sales

173,148

177,851

4,703

Gross profit

49,376

52,6883,312

Exploration expenses

9,605

10,427823

SG&A expenses

31,77731,069( 708)

Operating income

7,994

11,192

3,198

Non-operating income(expenses)

4,540

8,536

3,996

Ordinary income

12,534

19,728

7,194

Extraordinary income(losses)( 155)

965

1,120

Income taxes

2,633

4,314

1,681

≪Causes of income fluctuations ≫Gross profit
Domestic crude oil and natural gas ¥1.2 billion
Overseas consolidated subsidiaries ¥1.8 billion
breakdown: JACOS ¥1.8 billion

Exploration expenses
Domestic exploration
Overseas exploration¥0.4 billion¥0.3 billion

SG&A expenses
LNG transportation fee
Repair costs for facilities(pipelines etc.)(¥0.2 billion)

NonNon-operating income (expenses)
Dividends income¥4.3 billion
Foreign exchange losses(¥0.2 billion)

Extraordinary income (losses)
Gain on change in equity

Minority interests in income
Net income

611813

202

9,135

15,566

6,43114(¥0.2 billion)¥1.2 billion