2022 Mid-Year Advertising Forecast
GLOBAL

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GLOBALINTRODUCTION

03

GLOBAL ECONOMIC BACKDROP

04

THE IMPACT OF NEW
GOVERNMENT POLICIES09

MEDIA CONCENTRATIONSBLURRY MEDIA DEFINITIONSAND DIGITAL EXTENSIONSMEDIA CONCENTRATIONCONTENT SPENDING

13
14
16

ADVERTISING
INDUSTRY GROWTH

18

REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS

22

CONCLUSION

25APPENDIXHISTORICAL REVISIONS
U.S. FORECAST
U.K. FORECAST
2022 BY THE NUMBERS
SUMMARY DATA TABLES

26
26
28
33
38
39

AUTHORS42

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GLOBALINTRODUCTION
Many sectors are seeing significant growth in advertising
revenue, yet there are fears of recession. E-commerce isfinding its place in a world where in-person activities are
resuming, all while pandemic-related lockdowns in China
and supply chain bottlenecks from there and war-torn
Ukraine contributed to a drag on growth in the first halfof 2022.
Coming off the lows of 2020 and the highs of 2021, theadvertising market is settling into 2022, a year that’s seeing
rising inflation, increased wages, mounting regulatory
pressure on Big Tech and an overall effort by consumers
and marketers to find their footing in a world that’s getting
increasingly used to living with COVID-19.
Halfway through the year, we now expect advertising to growby 8.4%, excluding the impact of U.S. political advertising(what we call “underlying” growth), slightly lower than theforecast we gave in December 2021.
Most marketers are still adding to their media budgets in
2022; a key difference between this year and last year is thatthe rate at which this is occurring for older marketers is
simply slower, and at the same time there are likely fewer
new marketers emerging.
Increased consumer price inflation in the markets we coveris expected to average nearly 7% this year, sparking fears ofrecession. However, we don’t see a perilous economic state.
Underlying (“real,” or inflation-adjusted) growth should
outpace that of 2019, even if some parts of the world do end
up experiencing an economic downturn.
Global Ad Revenue &GDP Growth, 2000-2021
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%-15.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

ADVERTISING REVENUE GROWTHGDP GROWTH

We now expect growth in ad revenue for pureplay digital platforms of 12% in 2022, slower thanthe 32% pace observed in 2021. As a major driverof last year’s gains, perhaps it should have been
imprudent for anyone to expect e-commercerelated growth to keep pace with the high-flying
numbers of 2021, but the relative degree ofdeceleration — not necessarily decline — thiscategory of advertisers is likely having on digitaladvertising appears significant. Although typicallarge brands with well-diversified media plans
may allocate half of their budgets into digital
media, the average, covering marketers of all
types and sizes — including many who are too
small to use anything other than digital media —is much higher at 67% this year.
Television, which retains its critical, if
increasingly secondary, role for larger brands,is also poised for solid underlying growth this year
— at least relative to prior expectations — of 4%,
continuing to rebound from the doldrums of theearly pandemic. Ad-supported streaming services
are likely buoying the medium as they offer
marketers a similar channel to hit their reach andfrequency goals, but over time those connected
TV environments are likely to capture shares ofexisting linear TV budgets more than they will
drive money toward it.
Notably, television is becoming increasingly
global in ways it never was before. Mostly U.S.based streaming services continue to invest
aggressively in local-language content as they
move into foreign markets and position
themselves to gain audience shares from
historically dominant incumbent broadcasters
with geographic limits to their operations.
The impact of government policies andpreferences on the ad-supported media is anotherincreasingly important trend impacting theindustry. Larger scale efforts to curb the influenceof major tech companies and regulate platforms,
like the EU’s Digital Services Act, are taking aim
at Apple, Google and Meta via de facto or de jureefforts to break up those companies. Other
regulatory initiatives are popping up in America,
too, with some at the state-level taking a different,
politically charged approach by attempting to
codify into law that platforms cannot censor
content on their sites as they would like.

Source: GroupM, World Bank

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GLOBALGLOBALECONOMIC
BACKDROP
There are numerous problems at the forefront of daily life in many of theworld’s largest advertising markets, with concerns about the consequencesof war in Ukraine, additional global supply chain disruptions associated withpandemic-driven lockdowns in China, ongoing input cost inflation and, perhaps
most visibly in many parts of the world, higher prices for consumers. Prices forfood and other goods have been consistently rising at unusually elevated levels
for the better part of the past year in many places leading to headlines ofinflation and the potential risk of recession.
Looking at data covering the month of April 2022 and using the dominantmeasures of inflation on a year-over-year basis, prices rose in the U.S.
by 8.3%, while in the Euro Zone rates rose by 7.4%. In the U.K. it was 9.0%,
and in Canada it was 6.8%. However, it’s not quite so severe in every
major market: In China inflation most recently ran at 2.1% while inJapan the figure was 2.5%, and in Australia it’s only 3.7%. In twoother large markets, Brazil and India, inflation was high to be
sure — up 12.1% and 7.8%, respectively — although in thosecountries relatively higher levels of inflation have been much
more common in the past, so consumers and businesses are
somewhat more experienced at managing it.
On a weighted average, markets we track in This Year
Next Year are expected to experience inflation of 6.9%
during 20221, up from 3.7% in 2021 and above levels
that more typically ran in a 2%-3% range in recent
decades (although we note that this measure of inflation
amounted to 5.1% in 2008). Over the past six months,
expectations have shifted significantly.

… markets we track in thisThis Year Next Year are expected
to experience inflation of 6.9%
during 2022 …”
1 Oxford Economics, aggregated by Refinitiv

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GLOBALFor many individuals and policymakers in North America andEurope who grew accustomed to negligible levels of inflation,
the current environment represents a negative surprise
despite actions and circumstances that were plainly likely tocause this outcome. In response, relevant central banks haveraised or have signaled they will raise interest rates from
historical lows, leading to concerns that higher costs of capitalwill constrain economic activity before prices are undercontrol. This, in turn, has led many to fear a stagflationary
recession.

However, for as negative as all thesefactors are, economic conditions are
actually not quite so bad as headlines
might suggest.
Interest rate increases have been low in absolute terms. They
have essentially gone from zero to 1% or 1.5% in the U.S.,
Canada and the U.K., while in Europe that equivalent figure
remains at zero. By any standard, rates are low and are likely
to remain so in an absolute sense for the foreseeable future.
Perhaps because of the room that central banks have totighten without constraining, consensus expectations frominvestment bank economists continue to call for real economic
growth this year and next, meaning that even if some markets
see a recession (technically defined as two consecutive
quarters of economic decline), most believe growth will
prevail for the year on the whole around the world.
More specifically, as of the end of April consensus estimatesamong bank economists called for 3.5% real growth2 in global
economic activity during 2022. While this is down fromexpectations made in January (which called for 4.3% growth),
we note that this would still be higher than 2019’s 2.9% real
growth rate3. For those who can remember a period of timeprior to the pandemic, that was a year with fairly strong
advertising growth trends. To this real growth rate one can
add higher levels of inflation and we can reasonably expect
global gross domestic product (GDP) to approach or slightly
exceed double-digit gains in nominal terms this year.
Consumer spending will undoubtedly drive most of thisgrowth. Higher prices are helping to drive such spending up,
as wage gains and stored-up savings are allowing consumers
to pay more than they might otherwise like to for the goods
and services they want, many of which they may haverefrained from buying because of pandemic-era conditions.
In many markets we can see data that shows how savings
rates rose throughout the pandemic, when many governments

2 Aggregated by Refinitiv
3 International Monetary Fund (IMF)

around the world offered stimulus payments
or salaries in lieu of working in order to limit
the spread of COVID-19 while keeping
economies afloat. In aggregate, consumers
simply didn’t spend as much as they might
have during that period. And while many
individuals needed and benefitted from a cash
influx at the time, aggregated savings levels
also rose significantly as a result.

3.5%

real economic
growth in 2022

Real vs. Nominal

Many economic measures are “real”(adjusted for inflation) or “nominal”(not adjusted for inflation).

Recession
When a country’s economy experiences negative
real GDP for two consecutive quarters. Common
indicators include high unemployment, lower
spending and wages, high inflation, lower retailsales and manufacturing as well as high debt.

Inflation
Inflation measures capture changes in prices
for evolving baskets of goods and services in an
economy, or within specific regions of a given
country. CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) orsimilar measures (HCPI — “HarmonizedConsumer Price Inflation” — or a Personal
Consumption Expenditure inflation index) areprimary ways in which policy-makers trackinflation. As inflation corresponds to increases inprice, it can cause a reduction in purchasing
power if all else is held equal.

s

JUNE 2022

Gross Domestic ProductMeasures the total value of goods and services
produced by an economy.
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GLOBALTo illustrate, consider that during the five arguably worst quarters of the pandemic (2Q20 through 2Q21) the
average savings rate amounted to 16% in Australia, the U.K. and Canada, 17% in the U.S., 22% in France and 25% in
Germany. During the preceding five quarters savings were measured in the teens in France and Germany and single
digits in the other markets mentioned here.
At the same time, low interest rates afforded property-owning consumers an opportunity to refinance their assets,
reducing expenses further and adding significant pools of capital to cash balances, especially in the United States.
Not only did these consumers save significant amounts of interest expenses on the massive $2.3 trillion of mortgages
that were refinanced during 20214, but, during that year, $275 billion of equity was tapped via mortgage cash-out refinancings5, money that can now be drawn upon to soften price increases. For a sense of scale, all Americans’personal income amounted $13 trillion in 2021.
But it wasn’t only savers and property owners who benefitted financially from recent circumstances in high-inflation
markets: In at least some instances, wage earners have also seen significant gains as labor markets have remained
tight. In the U.K., average wages grew by 7.0% in the first quarter, for example. In Germany, first quarter wages rose
4.0%, following on three additional quarters of solidly mid-single-digit gains, making it the strongest period of wage
growth in a decade. In the U.S., average wages earned across all people rose by 4.9%, a level that was below CPI
inflation, but wage gains for the lowest 10% of wage earners — i.e., those less likely to have much in the way ofsavings or assets to fund shortfalls — actually rose much faster, growing by 9.3% during the first quarter of 2022.
This represented an inflation-beating trend that has broadly occurred over much of the past decade for this group.
The lowest quintile of wage-earners has generally experienced similar trends since 2016. Tight labor markets arelikely to support such trends for the foreseeable future.
Consumer Price Index YoY Change
35.0%

U.S. PCE
8.0%
6.0%

30.0%

4.0%

25.0%

2021

2022

2020

2017

2019

2018

2016

2015

2013

2014

2011

2012

2010

2007

2009

2008

2006

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

5.0%
0.0%

U.K. WAGE GROWTH

Average Wages

2022

2021

2019

2020

2018

2017

2016

2015

2013

2014

HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS
20.0%

Household Savings Rate

10.0%
0.0%

U.K.

U.S.

CAN ADA

Q1 2019-Q1 2020 AVG.
4 Mortgage Bankers Association
5 Black Knight

2012

2011

2010

2009

Source: ONS

Average wage measures reflect typical levels of earnings for every
employee in an economy.

The household savings rate measures savings as a percentage ofdisposable income (the amount available to spend after taxes).

2008

PCE reflects the volume of consumer spending in an economy,
and typically represents the largest single grouping of activities
in a given economy; it typically represents a majority of theactivity counted as GDP.

-5.0%

2007

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)

0.0%

2005

Source: ONS, BLS, Statistics Canada, and Eurostat

5.0%

2006

EURO AREA

2004

CANADA

2003

U.K.

2001

U.S.

10.0%

2002

2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015
2016
2016
2017
2018
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022

-5.0%

2005

10.0%

2003

-2.0%

2004

15.0%

2001

0.0%
2002

2.0%

20.0%

FRA NCEGERM ANY AU STRALIA

Q2 2020-Q2 2021 AVG.

Source: U.K. Office for National Statistics, Statistics Canada, Australian
Bureau of Statistics, Eurostat, U.S. Bureau of Economics Analysis

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GLOBAL

Perhaps as a result, during their first quarter earnings resultspresentations in April and May, companies from across a wide range ofindustries emphasized that consumers were tolerating price increases
and demonstrating relatively “inelastic” demand. Even when there were
supply chain issues, manufacturers chose to prioritize higher value (andhigher-priced) products and generally passed input cost increases along
to customers in the process.

Even when there were supply chain issues,
manufacturers chose to prioritize higher
value (and higher-priced) products
and generally passed input cost increases
along to customers in the process.”
It’s useful to consider what expectations looked like for the year 2022 if
we go back in time to the middle of 2021, when the end of the pandemic
appeared close, and inflation was not yet a significant concern. At thatpoint, consensus expectations for real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growthin 2022 amounted to 4.5% with inflation expectations6 of nearly 3%,
for better than 7% growth in nominal terms. Fast forward to the present
where expectations for 2022 growth in real terms amount to more than
3% with inflation expectations of around 7%. As a result, nominal growthis implicitly forecast at around 10% during 2022. As This Year Next Year
tracks nominal advertising revenue growth, these nominal figures are thedata we are ultimately paying the most attention to and represent the
singular economic variable to which one might most appropriately tie
advertising growth.
Similarly, expectations for nominal growth in 2023 are actually higher
now than they were last year, although, of course, we recognize the weaker
expectations for real GDP growth do reflect a less desirable outcome thanmight have been hoped for at this point in 2021.

Inelastic Demand
Inelastic demand is often used todescribe a situation when changes
in prices for goods or services do
not lead to changes in demand.
When demand is inelastic,
consumers will not change thequantity of goods and services
they buy despite higher prices.

Input Costs
Input costs refer to costs for thematerials, labor and overhead
required to produce a good orservice.

Nominal economic
growth is implicitly
forecast at around10%

during 2022.

With these conditions, it should be unsurprising if most marketers would generally continue to increase their budgets
for advertising roughly in line with revenue growth. And for the most part, the largest advertisers have reported
revenue growth in the first quarter of 2022, with consensus expectations for growth as of June only slightly weaker
for this group than it was prior to the war in Ukraine. The subsequent advertising increase occurs in part because
many companies manage these budgets in a relatively mechanical manner, and also because some need to sustain or
expand their media presence in order to justify higher prices. Another rationale for increasing advertising is to avoid
loss of share to competitors who, in a growing economy, will almost certainly collectively advertise more to capitalizeon the expected growth in consumer spending.

At the same time, three key secular drivers of advertising wehave identified that contributed to elevated growth during 2021
are still impacting current trends, although these “tailwinds”
are likely reduced this year compared to last year.
6 Aggregated by Refinitiv

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GLOBALNew business formation is an important
engine of advertising growth because
individual businesses typically budget
some amount of advertising if only totell the world they exist."

NEW BUSINESS CREATIONAKA CREATIVE DESTRUCTIONFirst, data generally shows ongoing increases in the numbers ofbusinesses — by definition, almost all of which are small — indifferent countries, with levels that have been elevated since theend of the first full quarter of the pandemic. While growth rates
have declined year-over-year during each month of 2022, they
are still substantially above levels observed in 2019. New businessformation is an important engine of advertising growth because
individual businesses typically budget some amount of advertising
if only to tell the world they exist. More importantly, it seems
likely that these newer cohorts of small businesses have higher
advertising-to-revenue ratios than older businesses, serving as
a boost to advertising growth (and one that should continue,
albeit at a more moderate level). While this is a theory, to be clear,it appears to be supported by anecdotal observations of theincreasingly online nature of newer businesses relative to older
ones, and the propensity of businesses that are based online tospend money in pursuit of website traffic to a greater degree
than offline businesses do with offline media.

VENTURE CAPITAL AKA
GROWTH AT ANY COST
Second, we note the role of venture capital, as these poolsof capital have helped fund significant numbers of massively
scaled companies, with many of them similarly possessing
advertising expense-to-revenue ratios that are much higher
than incumbent competitors. It appears increasingly clear that
venture investors, and many of the companies they fund, will
be more disciplined when it comes to their investment choices
and operating costs in the current environment of economicrisk and higher capital costs (i.e., interest rates). There has
been more than one example of this in recent news, and yetthese marketers will undoubtedly continue to invest inadvertising in order to drive growth, at least so long as it isprofitable growth in the near-term.

CHINESE MARKETERS
ADVERTISING ABROAD
The third secular factor we have pointed
to relates to Chinese marketers
advertising abroad, primarily using selfservice advertising tools on global
platforms. Among the three listed here,
this segment of marketers appears most
likely to serve as a drag on growth in
2022. It is difficult to know the degree towhich lockdowns in China directly caused
a negative impact on advertising aroundthe world, if they did at all. While directly
connecting those globally oriented
Chinese manufacturer-marketers tocurrent advertising trends is difficult, we
can point to Chinese exports as anillustrative data point conveying thegrowing role of China in global markets,
despite broader de-globalization trends insome markets. Exports grew by a mere
3.9% in April and just over 12% for the
first four months of the year. This
represents a noteworthy deceleration of
growth from 2021 when monthly export
volumes typically expanded well in excess
of 20%. However, to the extent thedeceleration is temporary, as conditions
begin to revert toward “normal” in June,
export activity may yet see moremeaningful growth.

“NEW ECONOMY”
ADVERTISER
EXAMPLES
Ride Sharing

Online Travel

Delivery

DTC Consumer
Goods

Gaming

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GLOBALTHE IMPACT OF NEW

GOVERNMENTPOLICIES
Beyond the broad changes in the economy that have generally evolved independently of any one
government’s choices, it is important to contemplate the degree to which regulatory policies are
positioned to impact the media business this year, next year and beyond.
When it comes to digital media platforms, in recent years it has been evident that the primary
driver of change would be the EU, although American legislators and policymakers have more
recently started to catch up. We can point to a vast array of efforts by those governments to regulate
three of the biggest sellers of advertising by proposing or beginning to implement laws that are
intended to constrain the choices those companies make, and to generally limit their market power.
We see this in terms of how Alphabet’s Google and Meta’s Facebook sell ads and engage with otherparts of their ecosystems, how Apple and Alphabet work with app developers or how Amazon works
with third-party merchants.
Collectively the direction of travel seems relatively certain with policymakers constraining actions,
forcing break-ups or creating conditions where break-ups become more appealing than the statusquo. Most importantly for our purposes, while any of these outcomes introduce certain problems orrisks for the industry, it seems very unlikely that any of those actions will impact overall advertising
growth rates. We generally retain the view that while constraints such as those described earlier
may impact where money goes within the ecosystem, we don’t believe they will impact marketer
budgets by very much, if at all. Moreover, we are predisposed to the view that when industries
become more regulated, larger companies are generally better able to thrive within the spheres inwhich they are regulated relative to smaller competitors.

When it comes to digital media platforms,
in recent years it has been evident that the
primary driver of change would be theEU, although American legislatorsand policymakers have more
recently started to catch up.”9

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SELECT MAJOR
GOVERNMENT POLICIESTIMELINE
1995
EU Data Protection Directive
1996
U.S. Communications
Decency Act (Section 230)
1998
U.S. COPPA Children’s
Online Privacy Act
2000
EU eCommerce Directive

2012
EU Right to be Forgotten

2017
China Cybersecurity Law
2018
EU Global Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR)
2020
U.S. California Consumer
Privacy Act (CCPA)
2021
China Data Security Law
2021
China Personal Information
Protection Law
2021
U.S. Virginia Consumer
Data Protection Act
2023E
EU Digital Services Act
2023E
EU Digital Markets Act

GLOBAL

STATE LED POLICIES IN THE U.S.
While the issues highlighted before are moving forward in many places, there
are other more uniquely American issues that have begun to bubble up fromindividual states in recent months, as with efforts to prevent social media
platforms from blocking individual users or specific types of content. If these
efforts prove successful, they could have implications for markets around theworld as all the major global platform owners, except Bytedance, are U.S.based and are likely to think of their home market’s standards and offerings asbaselines for everywhere else.
As an illustration of these kinds of initiatives, in 2021 the Texas state
government passed a law, HB20, that would make it illegal for any social media
platform with 50 million or more monthly users to "block, ban, remove,
deplatform, demonetize, de-boost, restrict, deny equal access or visibility to,or otherwise discriminate against expression," potentially meaning that allcontent, including hate speech and spam, must be displayed equally. The law
was initially blocked by a federal district judge, but in May 2022 an appeals
court allowed it to go forward with the supposition that social media platforms
were not “websites” and, because of their market power, should instead be
categorized as “common carriers,” a distinction requiring them to serve all
customers and carry all lawful traffic. For the time being, the U.S. Supreme
Court has overruled the appeals court and reinstated the federal district court's
block, but the case appears likely to return to the highest court’s docket in the
future with an uncertain outcome.
Texas is far from alone in its efforts, though. Also in 2021, the governmentof Florida attempted to prevent large social media companies from“deplatforming … a political candidate or journalistic enterprise.” Up against
a different federal appeals court, an injunction against that law was upheld.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, a legal effort from that state’s attorney general aims todetermine that Google’s search engine is also a common carrier, under thepremise that the “goods” Google transports are information. In the U.S. media
industry, such rules have been applied to cable operators, essentially obliging
them to carry broadcasters whose programming they might not otherwise havechosen to distribute, suggesting it is not at all far-fetched that first amendment
rights might be overridden when it comes to digital media platforms.
One reason these cases matter is that, in the United States, social networks
have traditionally been able to rely on Section 230 of the 1996 Communications
Decency Act to allow them to handle user-generated content and filter harmful
language. However, if the above efforts succeed, they could open platforms tolitigation if the platforms do not adhere to the responsibilities that might follow
from the proposed laws. Questions around how the world’s digital media giants
might adapt and how marketers would respond to environments that would be
decidedly less desirable than they are today remain unclear.
European efforts to toughen these standards are, by contrast, much more
ready to move forward in a different direction, with the EU’s Digital Services
Act likely to come into effect by the end of 2023. An update to the bloc’s
e-Commerce Directive from the year 2000, the law is primarily intended tocombat illegal content (i.e., what’s illegal offline should be illegal online) anddisinformation at a European rather than national level. The imposition ofheightened standards from Europe for European consumers on the global
platforms could contrast with those that might evolve in the U.S., creating
very different experiences for consumers and advertisers in the two regions.

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GLOBALCHANGES TO MOBILE TRACKING
AND MEASUREMENT AT APPLE
We might expect more commonality across the tworegions with respect to consumer privacy not only
because Europe and certain American states havecontinually pushed laws in this direction in the nameof human dignity, but also because Apple has taken
coinciding stances and implemented changes limiting theavailability of data generated through its mobile operating
system. As a company in the crosshairs of regulatory
action and active competition with Apple as an operating
system provider, it was always inevitable that Google
would follow suit with similar actions, as they announced
they would earlier in 2022.
Developers of apps — including social media services,
some of whom are primary competitors to Apple fordifferent products and services with an interest inconveying the presence of heightened competition in themarket — have already claimed to experience significant
economic harm from the changes Apple made aroundthis time last year. We remain highly skeptical thatindustry-wide spending was impacted in a material way
and believe company-specific impacts are probably lesssignificant than are commonly conveyed.
To illustrate why, as we note later in This Year Next Year,digital advertising grew faster around the world than in
any year since 2007, a period where digital advertising
was a mere 8% of the size it presently is. Our analysis ofquarterly growth rates for the world’s largest digitalplatforms during 2021 shows no material difference ingrowth rates over multi-year periods of time (a betterway to assess growth rates while separating out thestatistical noise and quirks of the depths of the pandemic
during 2020).
While it’s true some platforms failed to grow as fast inperiods following the implementation of Apple’s changes
as they did in prior periods, it’s impossible to assess thedegree to which such company-specific problems wereinstead due to some combination of:•budget saturation for certain segments of customers (if, forexample, small businesses shifted all of the budgets to aplatform that they plausibly could have),•unique customer-segment skewing growth trends (heightened
exposure to a category such as e-commerce, which was poised
to decelerate during the latter part of 2021 and early 2022),•

user trends (limiting available inventory) or•

product offerings (an inability to provide sufficiently evolved
measurement capabilities to account for the new data limitations).

The loss of data fidelity itself is almost nevera reason for budgets to fall or decelerate.
Data that marketers have access to is rarely“perfect,” and the choice of signals they use todrive specific budgets to specific media owners
or specific platforms always depends on a wide
range of subjective choices. These include theappropriate time horizon to account for
between awareness and purchase, the degree
to which inherently poorly trackable elementsof marketing such as word-of-mouth impact
outcomes, similarly limited tracking of word-ofmouth activity for competing brands,
qualitatively evolving consumer preferencesand expectations, creative and brand choices
and many other factors. Moreover, a heavier
investment in human-driven data analysis withless data will likely drive better outcomes thanless human analysis of greater volumes of data.

Digital advertising
grew faster aroundthe world in 2021
than in any year
since 2007, a period
where digitaladvertising was amere 8% of thesize it presently is.”11

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GLOBALCHINESE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
Changes to policies in China, while reflecting some common underlying trends, have gone much further and illustrate
how changes can alter the growth rate of the advertising industry in ways that neither the EU nor the U.S. would evercontemplate. Several of the Chinese government’s actions significantly impacted the ability of individual categories ofmarketers to advertise or otherwise engage with consumers.
In the sphere of data and privacy, where the trend in China has been similar to what has been observed elsewhere,
two new laws were enacted in the second half of 2021 (the Data Security Law and Personal Information Protection
Law). These laws built on 2017’s Cybersecurity Law to govern how data is used, including limitations on the exportof data along with certain privacy-based protections. In other spheres, trends have been decidedly unique to China.
Last August saw the announcement of an array of efforts to diminish the role of fan-driven celebrity-focused culture
while at the same time imposing new content standards. Related rules effectively sought to contain what had beena relatively open environment for consumers and brands online. Other restrictions included significant time limits
imposed on minors playing video games online and the near elimination of online tutoring — a significant category
for sellers of advertising.

POLICIES PROMOTING LOCALLANGUAGE CONTENT AND
PRODUCTION
While the degree to which changes have been suddenly
implemented in China is somewhat unique, it is worth
recalling that active policies intended to impact culture
are actually common around the world. In many
countries a recent focal point has been the Americanbased streaming video providers, especially Netflix andAmazon Prime Video, whose scale typically dwarfs thesize of other services in any given market. Obligations
for streaming services to invest in domestic, local
language content productions are increasingly common
around the world. For example, in May, Switzerland
voters supported via referendum a tax that would oblige
foreign streaming services to spend 4% of revenue on
local productions, matching the obligations local
broadcasters have. Also in May, the Danish government
imposed a similar 6% tax on the same entities. Thesefigures are much lower than those imposed in othercountries like France and Italy, but the broad thrustof the effort in markets around the world is similar.
One of the potentially under-appreciated consequencesof such initiatives is that they arguably help to reinforce
trends that were already underway. Audiences aroundthe world have demonstrated interest in content fromforeign markets in foreign languages. As global
streaming services invest in greater volumes of
productions in greater numbers of languages, they
will inevitably find greater numbers of global hits thatwill make their platforms relatively more appealing
than services whose scale is geographically limited.

Restrictions included significant
time limits imposed on minors
playing video games online andthe near elimination of online
tutoring — a significant category
for sellers of advertising.”
In aggregate, U.S.-based streaming services could verysoon spend more on local language content in many
individual countries than those countries’ historicallydominant broadcasters. To the extent that there is adirect relationship between share of spending oncontent and share of viewing, the extra resources theglobally oriented streaming services deploy into
content will only serve to grow their audiences. Single
country television network owners who concentrate
their efforts on their home markets and attempt toserve as “national champions” rather than pursue
bigger global opportunities will find their businesses
at risk of shrinking as a consequence.

Obligations for
streaming services
to invest in domestic,
local language content
productions are
increasingly common
around the world.”
12

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BLURRY MEDIA
DEFINITIONS AND
DIGITAL EXTENSIONSGLOBALI

MEDIA CONCENTRATIONSTwenty or more years ago, defining a medium was a relatively simple
matter. Print was print, radio was radio, television was television, etc.
The internet changed everything, as digital extensions of traditional
media proliferated. The New York Times begat NYTimes.com and thelikes of Buzzfeed emerged as sources of sometimes very serious — andcompetitive — journalism. Radio stations began streaming and services
like Spotify provided functionally comparable alternatives.
Similarly, TV networks started to offer their programs on the internet
and some, such as NBC, ABC and Fox in the United States, founded a
dedicated service in Hulu. Over time they and others invested inoriginal productions that were practically like traditional TV. When
advertising was involved, the execution of campaigns was, of course,very different when comparing traditional and digital forms of a given
medium, with the digital forms generally more similar to each otherregardless of the type of content involved.
In most ways these distinctions weren’t important to consumers, forwhom the new was arguably just a continuation of the old. And thisview was reinforced for marketers by pragmatic media owners who
commonly bundled the sales of digital platforms with their traditional
offerings.
It was always the case that there was some blurriness where TV-based
networks had some print-equivalent content and related ad sales on
their websites produced by news divisions. Similarly, there wasambiguity as ostensibly pure-play digital platforms made some
professional video or print-like content. But these initiatives wererelatively small and, for practical purposes, indistinguishable fromthe media owner’s core focus and alignment with traditional media
categories. Such observations historically informed why the datacontained in This Year Next Year has included digital extensions of
traditional media alongside traditional media in our headline numbers.
However, efforts by media owners to establish their offerings acrossdifferent media types and a willingness among marketers to revisit
what gets included in their definitions of media for planning andbudgeting purposes appear to be increasingly significant. Traditional
print publishers are building on their digital content offerings toinclude audio products such as podcasts. Digital platforms likeYouTube that rely on user-generated or semi-professional content
are increasingly considered to be comparable to television and, before
long, a more significant share of their revenue will come fromtelevision-based budgets.
To be clear, we think that the notion of including digital extensions as
subsets of traditional media is still the appropriate way to think about
media plans, media budgets and ad revenues at an industry level, atleast in most instances. Podcasting is still a very small share ofnewspaper publisher revenues, and it will be many years before
YouTube represents more than a small share of total TV advertising.
Still, we highlight that the definitions we use today and the buckets
we group media into are far from universal, and far from permanent.
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GLOBALI

MEDIA CONCENTRATIONSMEDIA CONCENTRATIONAt around this time last year, we established data related to the global advertising revenue share held by the world’s
largest media owners. We now have updated data to cover the revenues these companies generated during 2021 andour revised historical estimates for advertising in every market around the world.
Although some of the specific figures have changed, the broad trend continues much as we illustrated last year, withthe world’s largest media owners accounting for a growing share of the industry. Specifically, we now estimate thatthe top 25 media owners represent 74% of global advertising.
Outside of China, the top 17 companies represented 70% of global advertising in 2021, an increase from 44% in 2016.
Importantly, while eight of the top 25 are Chinese-based media owners, their ad revenue remains largely mutually
exclusive and collectively exhaustive with Chinese-based media owners generating almost all their revenue in China,
and almost no ad revenue in China generated by non-Chinese companies reaching Chinese consumers in China.
TikTok owner Bytedance is a notable, yet relatively minor, exception with only a small, if rapidly growing, share of
its revenue outside China by our estimates.
Looking at the data a different way, consider that the top five sellers of advertising in 2021, a group including Google,
Facebook, Alibaba, Bytedance and Amazon, generated $408 billion in ad revenue, or 53% of the global total.
Ten years earlier, in 2011, the top five advertisers would have included
Google, Viacom and CBS (which we include on a combined basis, given
We now estimate that
their common controlling ownership even then), News Corp and Fox
the top 25 media(similarly combined here), Comcast and Disney. With the businesses
as they existed that year, those companies had a combined total ofowners represent 74%$79 billion in advertising, or 20% of the global total.

of global advertising.”

Largest Global Media Owners
ADVERTISING REVENUE IN BN $USD

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Google

72.9

87.4

106.3

122.3

131.9

192.0

Facebook

27.9

41.4

57.0

71.5

86.0

114.9

Bytedance

0.8

2.3

7.3

16.5

30.0

38.6

Alibaba

9.5

15.1

18.3

22.9

28.6

31.5

Amazon

4.2

6.3

9.1

12.6

19.8

31.2

Comcast (PF)

13.5

13.8

15.9

13.9

12.8

15.6

Microsoft (PF)

6.8

8.1

9.3

11.2

11.0

14.9

Tencent

3.9

6.2

8.4

9.9

12.6

14.0

Baidu

8.8

10.7

11.9

11.3

11.2

12.7

Disney (PF)

11.8

11.5

12.0

11.9

11.2

12.5

Pinduoduo

0.0

0.2

1.7

3.9

7.4

11.5

Paramount

11.9

10.6

10.9

11.1

9.8

11.4

Warner Discovery (PF)

10.1

10.4

10.7

10.6

9.5

10.6

JD.Com

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.9

6.6

9.1

Kuaishou

0

0.1

0.2

1.1

3.3

6.6

Fox (PF)

5.2

5.5

4.9

5.1

5.5

5.7

Yahoo!

7.2

6.5

5.8

5.6

5.0

5.5

Z Holdings (PF)

2.9

3.3

3.9

4.2

4.8

4.9

Twitter

2.2

2.1

2.6

3.0

3.2

4.5

RTL

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.8

4.3

Meituan

0.4

0.7

1.4

2.3

2.9

4.6

Snap

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.7

2.5

4.1

I Heart Media (PF)

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.5

2.8

3.4

JC Decaux

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.4

2.6

3.1

Mediaset

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.8

2021's Top 25 Total

216.6

260.5

317.4

372.3

427.3

570.2

Total Industry

501.4

534.6

586.6

635.4

633.2

776.0

43.20%

48.70%

54.10%

58.60%

67.50%

73.50%
441.6

2021's Top 25 Total Share of Industry
Ex-China-Based Companies ( Top 17)

191.1

222.1

264.3

299.6

324.7

Total Industry Ex-China

436.9

457.9

491.6

519.1

510.8

630.2

2021's Top 25 Total Share of Industry Ex-China

43.70%

48.50%

53.80%

57.70%

63.60%

70.10%

14

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MEDIA CONCENTRATIONS

One critical aspect of our analysis of market share changes is difficult
to quantify with precision but is conceptually easy to consider. So, how,
specifically, do we define concentration?
If we were to take our global analysis of country or market share all the way backto 2001, 1991 or any time before, we can imagine that the then-25 largest global
sellers of advertising would have had a dramatically smaller share of the industry in
any given geography. Among them would surely be many large country broadcast
network owners, yellow pages publishers and postal services companies asproviders of direct mail-based media. However, such a global analysis would havebeen essentially meaningless as very few would have operated outside of their homemarkets. By contrast, among today’s top 25, almost all of those not focused on China
operate in and have realistic ambitions to grow around the world, especially thosewith digital platforms that can more easily launch in country after country without
the type of regulatory prohibitions that would have blocked globalization efforts
from analog predecessors.

The flavor ofconcentration as it
stands today is likely
better for most small
businesses than it
was in earlier times,that is without
considering relative
effectiveness or othersocial impacts.”

Arguably, if we were to look at concentration in 2001 or 1991 the right way to do so would have been at the single
country level, where we can argue that levels might have looked similar to those shown at a global level today. Taking
it a step further, if we were to look at concentration at the local market — city or other narrow regional level — andlook at the level of concentration the typical marketer might have experienced with their own geographically-limited
operations, we might find that even then only a handful of companies accounted for practically all of the media fromwhich a marketer bought.
Given the nature of business in such eras, concentration was probably better defined at that local level. The
competitive “choice” for marketers of local monopoly newspaper, local monopoly yellow pages publisher or nationalmonopoly postal carrier is arguably not much different than the three media owners most smaller businesses canrealistically employ today, with Amazon, Facebook and Google representing the sole media channels for many.
If there is a difference now it is that those three companies at least offer businesses a significantly greater ability tomarket themselves nationally or internationally than their predecessors did a generation or two ago. This is not to saythat concentration is too high or too low at the present time, but to highlight that the flavor of concentration as it
stands today is likely better for most small businesses than it was in earlier times, that is without considering relative
effectiveness or other social impacts.
For larger companies, the nature of concentration can be viewed as similarly preferable relative to its form in priordecades, with a relatively wide range of partners to prospectively work with and global scale to both learn from andextend with. Many individual marketers will sometimes express that they feel their choices are limited orconstrained, but arguably this is because the specific marketing KPIs or other goals they set for themselves areconstraining. This often occurs because of the time it can take to reorient a marketing organization and related
budgets to capitalize on different media opportunities.

For sellers of advertising who feel that they are threatened by
the triopoly or by the U.S.-based media conglomerates, we
argue that the issue is not necessarily that the industry is
becoming more concentrated. Instead, the “problem” is thatthe media industry requires more investment in engaging
content, both at home and abroad.
It’s likely true that this world brings with it lower — if still positive — profit margins for media companies that invest
against the future, but it does so with significantly bigger scale for those who attempt to pursue it. The best solution
at hand for any given media company is to look for ways to become more global and to plan for a future that requires
more investment in growth. Such choices will prove more durable relative to those that favor “harvesting” profits
based on an historical industry structure that no longer exists.
15

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GLOBALI

MEDIA CONCENTRATIONSCONTENT SPENDING
On our updated estimates of spending on video and related content production by the world’s largest media
companies at the global studio, network and streaming service level (i.e., not considering spending by traditional
distribution businesses), we estimate that Comcast was the biggest globally with approximately $20 billion of
spending during 2021. We are mindful that accounting choices companies make may impact the specific figuresassociated with each company’s GAAP content expenses, and a range of other timing preferences may impact whencash costs are incurred to produce a different cash-based measure of content expenses. And, of course, there can besubstantive differences in assessing content costs when companies have a different mix of content produced inhouse for use in-house versus content that is licensed from others versus content that is produced in-house forlicensing elsewhere.

We believe there is a real relationshipbetween share of spending on content
and share of viewing. Consider that in
the U.S., Netflix accounts forapproximately 6%-7% of all TV
viewing, according to Nielsen, andassigning GAAP content costs inproportion to the company’s domestic
revenue, it incurred related expenses
of around $5 billion.
If we consider spending by U.S.
MVPDs (including cable, satellite andvirtual MVPDs) we can estimate there
was $66 billion in programming
spending last year. If we instead
consider spending by national TV
networks and local broadcast stations,
we could calculate a roughly similar
number. Adding spending by Netflix
and other services with direct-toconsumer offerings, this data showsthat Netflix probably accounts foraround 7% of total spending to capture
its roughly similar share of viewing.

Content Spending by Global Studios,
Networks and Streaming Services
25

20
IN BILLION $USD

However, the broad thrust of the datatells the same story: A handful ofAmerican companies utterly dominate
content production at a global level.
Moreover, as we described earlier,their investment is not only inEnglish-language content as asignificant and growing share goes
into content produced specificallyfor other countries.

15

10

5

0

Com cast

YouTubeWarner Medi a

Di sney

Par amountAmazon

Netfli x+ Discovery

Source: GroupM

2020

2021

The logic behind such an outcome should be unsurprising: When acontent packager (such as Netflix, another streaming service or a TV
network) produces or buys hundreds or thousands of content assets,some of them will randomly become massive hits, some will beignored, and the rest will help to fill out a library that in aggregate
captures a certain volume of viewership. If content is priced fairly —meaning one packager doesn’t systemically overpay relative toeveryone else, even if they might have the effect of driving industrywide prices up — then we might assume that on average a given
amount of spending on content will result in a relatively predictableaudience volume. We can’t predict when a given service will develop
a zeitgeist-dominating property or an overhyped bomb, but weshould be able to predict the overall consequences.

There is a real relationship between share ofspending on content and share of viewing.”
16

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GLOBALI

MEDIA CONCENTRATIONSApplying this logic to other markets, knowing that the U.S.-based
streaming services have begun to deploy significant volumes of capital
to local-language productions, we can anticipate that media companies
who are solely focused on modest incremental investments for
traditional and streaming services in years ahead are bound to losemeaningful viewing shares and diminish in importance over time
unless they make more significant efforts. Too few non-U.S.-based TV
network owners are investing sufficiently in their home markets, letalone globally, to compete in an industry that is becoming much moreglobal than it ever was.
The consequences will impact marketers, as well.
On the one hand, globally oriented marketers are relatively betterpositioned for the world that will emerge, because they will be able toestablish global relationships with the U.S.-based streaming services.
This will be relevant in terms of identifying best practices in working
with these services, possibly developing content to be deployed onthem or establishing business plans and budget commitments.

Globally oriented marketers are
relatively better-positioned for theworld that will emerge, because
they will be able to establish global
relationships with the U.S.-based
streaming services.”

We can anticipate thatmedia companies whoare solely focused onmodest incremental
investments for
traditional andstreaming services inyears ahead are boundto lose meaningful
viewing shares anddiminish in importanceover time unless they
make more significant
efforts.”

On the other hand, despite platforms like Disney+launching their ad-supported offerings andNetflix announcing it’s planning to do the same, it
is unlikely that ad loads on streaming services will
come anywhere close to the ad loads traditional
providers of TV services offer. Consequently, thecapacity of television to support the reach andfrequency goals that most marketers require will
be increasingly compromised. Although television
will remain uniquely impactful for marketers who
use it relative to alternatives, the greatest impact
for those kinds of companies will undoubtedly
come from heightened investments in broader
brand initiatives, including superior consumer
insights, better creative ideas and ongoingpresence across a range of consumer touchpoints.

It is unlikely that ad loads on streaming
services will come anywhere close to the adloads traditional providers of TV services
offer. Consequently, the capacity of
television to support the reach andfrequency goals that most marketers
require will be increasingly compromised.”17

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GLOBAL

ADVERTISING

INDUSTRYGROWTH
Generally, we hold the view that so long as real (inflation-adjusted)
economic growth is positive, inflation should be a positive contributor
to advertising growth. If economy-wide inflation runs hotter than we
expect this year, so too should our forecasts for advertising because of
the general impact inflation has on advertiser budgets. This should betrue so long as any central bank interest rate increases do not cause
reductions in investment or other sources of company expansion.
With all of this in mind, we expect advertising to grow around theworld by 8.4% in 2022, excluding the globally distorting effects of U.S.
political advertising. This is slightly below our prior 9.7% forecast from
December, a change driven primarily by deceleration in China, which
is now forecast at 3.3% versus 10.2% in December of last year. One caninterpret the data as slightly negative in direction on a relative basis,but only marginally so, as expected growth on an inflation-adjusted
basis is still positive, and similar to what we saw in many years during
the 2010s.
Of course, we emphasize that withgrowth now estimated at 25% for 2021,
an upwardly revised estimate of theoverall base of digital ad revenue inprior years, overall expectations shouldstill be viewed in a positive light.
Within digital advertising, the biggest
drag was likely e-commerce-based
activity where deceleration should be
unsurprising (given the outsize growthin 2021), even if the degree of theslowdown is stronger than expected.

We expect advertising togrow around the world by

8.4%

in 2022, excluding the globally
distorting effects of U.S.
political advertising.”

18

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GLOBAL

Total Advertising Growth

24.3%

30%

Growth in 2021

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

-15%

2020

-10%

DIGITAL
Pure-play digital advertising platforms should grow by 11.5% on an underlying basis during 2022 versus our previous
13.5% forecast. The secular factors described elsewhere in this document (i.e., business formations, venture capitaland China-based advertisers) remain as growth drivers but shifts from existing advertisers — incumbent brands or
those who historically prioritized television — are a secondary source of the growth. Overall, digital advertising on
pure-play platforms (not including spending by advertisers on digital extensions of traditional media and excluding
U.S. political advertising activity) represents 67% of the industry’s total this year and should amount to 73% in 2027.
Only five years ago that figure was 43% and ten years ago the figure was 20%. It is worth noting that total advertising
activity has more than doubled in size over the past decade, driving most of digital advertising’s growth to a figurethat we estimate will amount to more than $563 billion in 2022, covering all digital-only platforms. Under a broader
definition of digital advertising, which includes traditional media’s digital extensions, we estimate the industry willaccount for $618 billion in 2022, or 73% of its total.

RETAIL MEDIA & SEARCH
We think that retailor e-commercebased media growth
should outpace allother major formsof digital media inyears ahead.”

Within digital advertising, we think retail or e-commerce-based media
growth should generally outpace all other major forms of digital media
in years ahead. The world’s larger social media platforms will likely
collectively grow on pace with the broader digital media sector, although
TikTok at minimum should continue to take share so long as its usage
levels remain high and national security concerns are not acted upon.
Search continues to solidify its role and massive size, with Google
continuing to account for almost all related activity.

19

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GLOBALTV
Meanwhile, after recovering during 2021 with double-digit
growth, television appears poised to produce more
limited, if still solid growth (excluding the impact of U.S.
political advertising) with a 4.4% gain for the medium
overall during 2022. We are increasingly persuaded thatsome incremental growth has come to television from new
advertisers enabled by the advent of connected TV. Put
differently, the likes of Pluto, Tubi, Roku and other singlecountry streaming offerings have probably caused somemoney that might otherwise have gone into digital media
platforms to shift onto consumers’ TV sets instead.
In total, we estimate that global Connected TV+
advertising amounts to $21 billion in 2022, up by 24%
over 2021 and accounting for 12% of all TV globally.
However, we don’t believe this causes a major step-change
in the growth trajectory of television: TV growth in its
broadest definition — including Connected TV+ — ispoised to flatten in the coming years. Connected TV
environments, including digital ad inventory fromstreaming services, will capture shares of existing
budgets much more than they will drive new ones into
the industry.
Recent announcements from Disney and Netflix related
to plans to offer advertising-supported tiers for some of
their subscribers on their flagship services will provide
some marketers with confidence that television willcontinue to satisfy their reach and frequency goals andencourage them to retain large budgets with the overall
medium. However, it is unlikely that most users of
streaming services will do so on an ad-supported basis.
Further, ongoing declines in viewership of televisionpaired with increasing levels of cord-cutting continue
to compromise the relative utility of the medium, as
the world’s largest marketers historically relied upon
television to essentially reach everyone with theircampaigns. So, while it remains the case that television
is better than many alternatives for the purposesof satisfying reach and frequency goals, its reduced
effectiveness will only encourage marketers to explore
alternative media and marketing strategies.
Notably, for many marketers, YouTube will lookincreasingly like a substitute to television, at least for
those who believe their traditional TV creative isappropriate to use on YouTube, and for those who caremore about customer segments rather than the need toborrow brand equity of the content where theiradvertisements run. But ongoing challenges in the formof integrated measurement across linear, streaming andYouTube, as well as marketing operations and workflows,
may limit the flows of spending across these media types.

We expect outdoor to exceed
its 2019 volumes in 2024,
indicating that much of thegrowth we are seeing at present
can still be characterized as
recovery driven.”

OUTDOOR
Meanwhile, outdoor advertising continues
to rebound as it progresses toward prepandemic levels in most parts of theworld. Early 2022 has been strong as
audiences have returned, people spend
more time enjoying life out of the homeagain and new movement patterns
emerge. New brands, marketers in thetravel category and advancements in datadriven targeting are helping drive growth,too. However, the aforementioned
economic challenges still present risks.
Although we forecast a slight decline inoutdoor advertising during 2022, this is
entirely because of current weakness in
China — formerly the world's largest OOH
market. Excluding China, growth shouldamount to 14.3% this year as manymarkets have approached or are soon to
exceed their pre-pandemic highs.
Digital OOH inventory continues torepresent the bulk of growth now, withnearly a third of share at present.
We expect outdoor to exceed its 2019
volumes in 2024, indicating that much of
the growth we are seeing at present canstill be characterized as recovery driven.

In total, we estimate that
global Connected TV+
advertising amounts to$21 billion in 2022, up by 24%
over 2021 and accounting for
12% of all TV globally.”
20

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GLOBAL

AUDIO
Audio in its broadest definition may still need more time to fully recover, if it ever will, as the industry remains
substantially oriented around locally constrained advertisers who increasingly represent a shrinking share of thebroader economy. For reference, in the United Kingdom radio has an 80-20 national-to-local advertiser split, and in
the U.S. the ratio is approximately reversed. Still, there is much to be positive about the broadly defined medium,
especially with the evolution of newer digital services from traditional broadcasters, including Spotify and others
that offer podcast advertising, for example.

NEWSPAPER & MAGAZINES
Many marketers at are least conceptually supportive of
print-based media owners. Growing numbers of brands
appreciate the importance of this channel as social andcultural consciousness becomes more prevalent in media
buying. Concurrently, publishers have diversified theirdigital offerings to include podcasts, experiential andimproved audience matching capabilities that help toensure viability and long-term growth, especially for
publishers with a national or global orientation.
Audiences are therefore robust and available across amuch larger spectrum of platforms. However, the broader
factors causing decline previously — heightenedcompetition from digital platforms in particular — willcontinue to weigh on the sector, and many individual
publishers that continue to effectively harvest theirbusinesses (i.e., focusing on drawing cash out rather thaninvesting more in) will constrain results for years to come.

Many individual
publishers that continue
to effectively harvest theirbusinesses (i.e., focusing
on drawing cash out
rather than investing
more in) will constrain
results for years to come.”

Our new estimates callfor $13 billion in ad
revenue associated with
political campaigns in
2022, up modestly from$12 billion in 2020, but
up significantly from2018’s $6 billion7.”

U.S. POLITICAL
ADVERTISING
Finally, we look to the impact of U.S.
political advertising at an industry
level, which is increasingly important
every year, but has a more massive
impact every two years — including
in 2022. Our new estimates call for$13 billion in ad revenue associatedwith political campaigns in 2022, up
modestly from $12 billion in 2020,
but up significantly from 2018’s$6 billion7.
Although we do expect a significant
uptick in spending that will be
associated with a wide range ofcontentious issues, the absenceof a presidential campaign this year
limits the degree to which spending
can grow on a two-year basis.
On a four-year basis, heightenedpolarization and relatively loose
campaign financing laws continue tosupport rapid growth in this activity.

7 Excluding direct mail21

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GLOBALREGIONALGROWTHTRENDS
Looking at the data for 2022 advertising growth through a regional, country or market lens, wefirst note that there can be two general causes of changes in expectations. The first is a genuine
like-for-like change given similar historical baseline estimates for advertising, and the second isdriven by a revised analysis of historical data that informs slightly different expectations into the
future. Put differently, a change in expectations can be notable, but we emphasize that changes
do not necessarily reflect newly positive or negative views unless specifically called out.

CHINA’S OUTSIZED IMPACT%
20
China represented

of global
advertisingin 2021.

One of the most significant geographic trends relates to the relative
deceleration in China compared to the rest of the world. China, which
represented 20% of global advertising last year, is now expected to
grow by only 3.3% versus 10.2% in our prior forecast. Deceleration ofthis scale is driven by real underlying changes in expectations relative
to six months ago. With a “dynamic zero COVID-19” strategy,
lockdowns were a prominent feature in the Chinese economy duringmuch of the first half of 2022, and the policy limits the extent andspeed of economic recovery there.
The country’s GDP targets and economic policies are now focused on
promoting consumption, infrastructure investment and growth insmaller cities, which should help drive growth in advertising in thoseareas as marketers broaden their geographic focus. However,
advertising will be curtailed by policies that are restricting activities inreal estate and education and are generally attempting to curtailcelebrity-focused “fan culture.” Efforts to regulate the largest digitalplatforms in China are also more generally likely to limit growth.
Changes to our estimates in China alone represent a more than 1%
reduction in our global forecasts and explain why the weighted average
growth rate for the world excluding China is essentially identical now
versus our December forecasts (9.6% on an ex-U.S. political basis,
excluding China in our current estimates versus 9.7% previously). The
median market is down only slightly with 8.2% growth now compared
to 9.1% previously. Of course, we recognize that with inflation
expectations up by several percentage points on a global basis relative
to six months ago, in real or inflation-adjusted terms current growthforecasts would be considered weaker.
22

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U.S. political advertising
forecast at nearly

13BN

$

in 2022.

The largest market globally is still the United States, which
represents 39% of the global industry. As defined here —excluding direct mail and directories, which we include in
our stand-alone U.S. forecasts because of historicalconventions — growth excluding political advertising is
forecast to be roughly in line with global averages, up
10.0% now versus 10.8% in December.
We note that political advertising is once again expected to
be a significant factor in 2022, with nearly $13 billion in
activity expected this year for 4% of total media owner adrevenue (highly concentrated in locally skewed
broadcasters, with significant volumes increasingly
directed to digital platforms).
Canada is expected to grow at a similar pace relative to theunderlying U.S. rate of expansion, with a 9.5% growth
expectation this year. This represents an upgrade from
December’s 6.5% forecast.

EMEA
Looking at other regions, we now forecast Europe and Central Asia, which
represent 20% of global advertising, are collectively set to grow by 8.5% thisyear, up from 7.8% previously. The U.K., by far the largest component of theregion at around 29% of total activity, is expected to grow by a faster-thanaverage pace for the region with 9.3% growth versus 7.3% previously.
Advertising in the U.K. has become increasingly digital-led, as the country
has disproportionately benefitted from many of the same underlying trends
that have elevated the U.S. and China in recent years. Over the past five
years, total advertising revenue for media owners operating in the U.K. has
almost doubled, a much faster rate than the 60% expansion observed in all
countries globally. Although it is a much bigger economy relative to the
U.K., Germany remains Europe’s second-largest advertising market and is
now forecast to grow by a similarly upgraded pace, now at 9.1% for 2022
versus our prior 7.3% expectation.
France is seeing a bigger bump with a new forecast of 11.1%; previously wecalled for growth of only 5.1% in that country for 2022. By contrast, we now
expect Italy to fall by 1.6% compared to our prior 5.0% growth expectation.
Spain’s growth forecast is also lower now — at 10.6% — than it was inDecember when our forecast anticipated 11.7%.

2X

Since 2017, total
advertising revenue
for media owners
operating in the U.K.
has doubled.

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APAC
Within APAC we forecast growth of 5.7% now versus our prior 9.3% estimate,although as China represents 56% of the region, relative weakness in China is
a drag on the APAC total. Excluding China, regional growth is now forecast to
be 9.0%, compared to 8.1% previously.
Japan, still the world’s third-largest advertising market, is forecast to grow at afaster pace than we previously anticipated, and without the benefit of a broadly
inflationary economy (consensus expectations per Refinitiv call for CPI increasesof 2.5% this year — low globally, although high by Japanese standards, ofcourse). We now forecast 8.5% growth versus 5.6% previously there.
Expectations in the region’s next largest market, India, are relatively unchanged
with 22.1% growth forecast for 2022 as underlying growth there remains strong.
There is also significant potential for long-term expansion still in place in India,
where the population is broadly similar in size compared to China, but India’s
advertising market is less than one-tenth as big.
On current estimates, India is positioned to rise from its position as the world’s
tenth-largest market to become the seventh-largest — ahead of Canada, Australia
and Brazil — by 2025. Australia is expected to grow more modestly — up 5.8%,
down from 6.2% previously — although we note that current levels of inflation
are more moderate there than in North America or Europe.

India is set to risefrom the world’s
10th-largest
market to the7

TH

by 2025.

South Korea is expected to grow at a much slower pace, up only 1.0% undercurrent expectations versus 1.8% previously. Growth has been more moderatein South Korea in recent years relative to other advanced economies, arguably
because a lack of pandemic-era lockdowns limited the degree to which new
digitally focused businesses with high advertising-to-revenue ratios emerged
as they did elsewhere.

%
53
Brazil accounts forof Latin America’s
ad revenue.

LATIN AMERICA
Finally, in Latin America, 2022 growth isforecast to be 11.7% now versus 11.4% previously.
The region’s biggest market, Brazil, which
accounts for 53% of Latin America’s total, is
forecast to be up 13.3% now compared to
12.0% previously.
Mexico, the second largest country in the region,is relatively unchanged at 12.1% under current
expectations for the year.

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CONCLUSION
We expect the global
advertising industry
to continue to growthis year, albeit at aslightly slower clip of

8.4%

compared to the 9.7% weforecast in December of 2021.

While the economic future is impossible to predict with any
certainty, we believe the underlying conditions for mostconsumers paint a far less negative picture of the risks ofcurrent inflationary pressures than many others think. It
should be unsurprising after the extraordinary growth of2021 that we would see a deceleration in 2022, especiallyamong the largest digital players, and there are still
meaningful sources of growth fueling the global advertisingindustry.
Increasing numbers of new small businesses, coupled with
their likely propensity to advertise at higher levels than thebusiness they are replacing, venture-funded “neweconomy” advertisers seeking growth and Chinese-based
marketers advertising abroad are significant sources ofgrowth despite some drag brought on by the (expected)
deceleration of e-commerce and interest rate hikes.
As a result, we expect the global advertising industry tocontinue to grow this year, albeit at a slightly slower clipof 8.4% compared to the 9.7% we forecast in Decemberof 2021. And as it swells, publishers and marketers with
global strategies will be at an advantage.
Looking at the competitive environment this year and next,
it’s becoming clear that the largest streaming services are
expanding their global reach, and major digital publishers
and platforms are likely to seek global uniformity of theirbusinesses rather than piecemeal changes related
to fragmented national and state-based privacy
regulations.
While global scale offers marketers easier access to a larger
pool of audiences, there will still be challenges to face. U.S.based streaming services are entering foreign markets andare positioned to take share from national players.
The limited advertising opportunities within streaming
services coupled with the overall decline of linear televisionviewing means marketers should consider defining andsetting new goals for the medium of TV as it may becomeless able to cost-effectively satisfy reach and frequencybased marketing goals.
Even as individual advertising channels are becoming moredigital in nature, diversification remains an important toolin every marketer’s toolbox. Laws are changing, economies
are in flux and media are evolving rapidly, but there is still
ample room for advertising growth and for adaptable
marketers to succeed.

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APPENDIXAPPENDIXEXPLAINING OUR HISTORICAL REVISIONSIn this edition of This Year Next Year we have made several significant historicalrevisions to data — digital advertising data in particular — in many markets
around the world. In many other places our pre-2021 data is mostly unchanged,
and only final 2021 data for digital advertising looks significantly different than
the forecasts published in December.
The root cause of these changes is the same: Much of the industry has beensystemically and perpetually under-estimating the scale and trajectory of digitaladvertising, including many of that sector’s proponents. In our new data we havetaken significant steps to correct for these issues as best as we possibly can.
Before we explain why we have done so, let’s consider some background on theconventional process of estimating advertising activity in a given medium for agiven country.

Much of theindustry has beensystemically andperpetually underestimating thescale andtrajectory of digitaladvertising,including many ofthat sector’s
proponents.”

There are several kinds of entities that typically produce raw data on advertising
spending or media owner ad revenue for individual media in individual countries.
Those entities generally include:•

Governmental bodies, which can use the force of law to compel
disclosures or have an estimation process based on data they have.

•

Trade bodies, which may collect actual information from willing
participants from within their sectors and pair that data withestimates for others.

•

Media monitoring services, which build up data sets based aroundinstances of advertisements at the brand level, and pair thoseinstances with estimates of costs per instance.

•

Data that is in one form or another based upon agency billings.
Over time, one of these sources will often become accepted as a “truth” data set, and revisions may be made toensure consistency with our definitions in This Year Next Year.
For example, media monitoring services often lack much information on actual unit costs of media, and whatever
they do estimate attempts to capture spending by marketers rather than revenues from media owners. For
another example, something like YouTube might be included in the same line item as television in some markets,
but under our current definitions we aim to capture it in our internet-related line items.
A different approach to producing historical estimates, which we apply wherever it is possible, is to analyze publiccompany financial statements to derive our own proprietary estimates of the size and growth rate of a given
medium in a given market.
Many of the world’s largest sellers of advertising provide disclosures of advertising revenues, and from there someadjustments might be necessary to ensure definitional consistency. Although those companies might only
occasionally include country-level data as we would ideally like to see it, at least the underlying data is rooted inreality as those companies are legally obliged to provide accurate information however it is defined.
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APPENDIXHISTORICAL REVISIONS CONT.
As public companies produced their final 2021 data
early in 2022, it became evident that Alphabet, Meta
and Amazon combined to grow their advertising
revenues by approximately 42% in constant currency
terms. For Alphabet and Meta (which both provide
regional disclosures, albeit with slightly different
definitions) we could estimate constant currency adrevenue growth of 37% in the United States, 46%
growth in the rest of the Americas, 43% growth in
EMEA and 41% growth in APAC (excluding China,
where virtually no revenue would be attributed on auser-basis for these two companies). Beyond the three
giants, we think Microsoft, Yahoo, Japan’s Z Holdings,
Snap, Twitter and Pinterest collectively accounted foraround $37 billion of incremental revenue last year
and probably grew around 30%.

We believe the reasons behind such differences relate
to the process underlying sources go through whengathering data. In the case of digital advertising, local
trade associations — probably the most commonly
relied-upon underlying source used in any given
market — do not typically get actual data from theworld’s largest platforms. Instead, they’re left to maketheir own estimates based on scarce public
information. Some of those underlying sources may
get actual revenue from large digital platforms within agiven market, but we suspect even the country leads
for those platforms may not be fully aware of how
much revenue flows into their markets from otherparts of the world. This issue has increased in scale
over time as self-service platforms and cross-country
media buying have become more common.

Together, all nine probably represented around $380
billion in digital ad revenue, with very little overlap
because of ad network activity. Adding in two otherwalled garden publishers that provide no specificdisclosures on ad revenues — Apple and Bytedance’s
TikTok — we can count at least another $10 billion in
global activity outside of China, with likely faster
growth than whatever the industry average was. Retail
media platforms’ directly sold inventory would also
add some activity to this total.

While we have previously made upward adjustments
to underlying figures in many individual markets, wemade many more of them during this cycle of estimate
revisions given the unusual degree of growth thelargest industry players exhibited in 2021. It remains
difficult to identify exactly which individual markets
will require further historical adjustments, but we
expect to make additional changes as new evidence
emerges to better support making those historicalmodifications.

Put together, we can intuitively estimate that pureplay digital advertising revenues outside of China
would have amounted to around $400 billion last year,with some extra for other smaller digital platforms
around the world. Similarly, we can estimate that
global growth for these digital advertising activities
should have approached 40%. Unfortunately, if we
added up all the numbers produced by conventional
underlying sources, we would see lower figures.

We can countat least another$10 billion in global
activity outsideof China, withlikely faster growththan whatever
the industry
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APPENDIX

2022 U.S. MID-YEAR
ADVERTISINGFORECAST
BREAKDOWN
U.S. ECONOMIC BACKDROP%
9.3
wage gains for low
wage earners in thefirst quarter of 2022

The economic situation in the U.S. mirrors much of what was mentioned above in the global section. Data from the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has shown persistent high single-digit increases in consumer prices every month
during 2022, now a period with the highest rate of price increases for more than 40 years. In response, the U.S. Federal
Reserve has raised and will continue to raise interest rates from historical lows, causing concerns that higher costs ofcapital will constrain economic activity before prices are under control, leading to fears of a stagflationary recession.

However, as negative as these factors are, like our global
outlook, economic conditions are actually not quite sobad as headlines might suggest.
As referenced above, consensus expectations from bank economists continue to call for real economic growth thisyear and next, likely aided by the factors discussed around consumer savings, wage growth and the resulting passingof costs onto consumers where possible. For the U.S. specifically, according to the BLS, wage gains for low wage
earners who are less likely to have much in the way of savings or assets to fund shortfalls actually rose by 9.3%
during the first quarter of 2022, continuing an inflation-beating trend that has broadly occurred over much of thepast decade for this group.
Let’s consider what expectations looked like for 2022 if we go back one year, when vaccines were being
administered and inflation was not yet a significant concern. At that time, consensus expectations for real (inflationadjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022, according to Refinitiv, amounted to 4.1% with inflation
expectations of 2.2%, for better than 6% growth in nominal terms.
Fast forward to the present where expectations for 2022 growth in real terms is 2.8% with inflation expectations
exceeding 7%. As a result, nominal growth is implicitly forecast to be around 10% during 2022. As This Year Next
Year tracks nominal advertising revenue growth, these nominal figures are the data we are ultimately paying themost attention to and represent the singular economic variable to which one might most appropriately tie
advertising growth.
Similarly, expectations for nominal growth in 2023 are higher now than they were last year, although of course werecognize the weaker expectations for real GDP growth reflect a less desirable outcome than might have been hoped
for at this point in 2021.
With these conditions, it should be unsurprising if most marketers would generally continue to increase theirbudgets for advertising at least in line with revenue growth. This occurs in part because many companies manage
these budgets in a relatively mechanical manner, but also because some need to sustain a media presence to justify
higher prices. Another rationale for increasing advertising is to avoid loss of share to competitors who, in a growing
economy, will almost certainly collectively advertise more in order to capitalize on the growth in consumer spendingthat is likely to occur.
At the same time, the three key secular drivers of advertising we mentioned in the global section are similarly
taking hold in the U.S.
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APPENDIX

THE IMPACT OF NEW
GOVERNMENT POLICIESBeyond the broad changes in the economy that have generally evolved independently of any one government’s
choices, it is important to contemplate the degree to which policies are positioned to impact the media business.
When it comes to digital media platforms, in recent years, American legislators and policymakers have started to takenotice. Over the last 24 months, in particular, the U.S. government has made numerous efforts to regulate three ofthe biggest sellers of advertising by proposing or beginning to implement laws that are intended to constrain the
choices those companies make and to generally limit their market power. We see this in terms of how Alphabet’s
Google and Meta’s Facebook sell ads and engage with other parts of their ecosystems, how Apple and Alphabet workwith app developers or how Amazon works with third-party merchants.
Constraining actions, forcing break-ups or creating
conditions where break-ups become more appealing
than the status quo via policy is relatively certain. Most
importantly for our purposes, while any of theseoutcomes introduce certain problems or risks for theindustry, it seems very unlikely that any of thoseactions will impact overall advertising growth rates.
We generally retain the view that while such changes
may impact specifics around where money goes within
the ecosystem, we don’t believe they will impact
marketer budgets by very much, if at all.
In that spirit, we’ve seen individual American states aim
to prevent social media platforms from blocking
individual users or specific types of content. If these
efforts prove successful, they could have implications formarkets around the world if the major global platforms,
as all of them except Bytedance are U.S.-based, are more
likely to think of their home market’s standards asbaselines for everywhere else.
For an illustration of these kinds of efforts, refer to thecommentary in the global document on the Texas law
HB20, the Florida legislation also targeting large social
media companies and the Ohio effort to designate Google
as a so-called common carrier.
In the U.S., these cases particularly matter because social
networks have long relied on Section 230 of the 1996
Communications Decency Act to allow them to handle
user-generated content and filter harmful language. If
the above efforts succeed, they could open platforms tolitigation if the new laws are not adhered to, should theypass. How the world’s digital media giants might adapt
and how marketers would respond to environments thatwould be decidedly less desirable than they are today
remains unclear.

When it comes to digital
media platforms, in recent
years, American legislatorsand policymakers havestarted to take notice.”

Regulatory
efforts aimed
at forcing
break-ups
certainly poserisks for theindustry but
seem unlikely
to impact
overalladvertising
growth rates.”
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APPENDIX

ADVERTISING INDUSTRY GROWTH
Generally, we hold the view that so long as real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth is positive, inflation should be apositive contributor to advertising growth — if economy-wide inflation runs hotter than we expect this year, so too
should our forecasts for advertising because of the general impact inflation has on advertiser budgets.
With all of this in mind, we expect advertising in the U.S. including direct mail and directories to grow by 9.3% in
2022, slightly below our prior 9.8% forecast from December due to modest downward changes in digital advertising
to better reflect updated data and commentary from the medium’s largest sellers of advertising.
Of course, with growth we now estimate at 41% for 2021, an upwardly revised estimate of the overall base of digital adrevenue in prior years and a 14.8% growth rate for 2022 excluding political advertising (17.0% including it), overall
expectations should still be viewed in a positive light.
Within digital advertising, the biggest drag was likely e-commerce-based activity, which was unsurprising in direction
if possibly stronger than expected in degree. During the first quarter of 2022, U.S. e-commerce retail sales grew by
only 6.7%, the slowest pace for any quarter since 2019, although this outcome was built upon a year-ago quarter with
46.9% growth.
The secular drivers described elsewhere in this document are certainly factors but shifts from existing advertisers —incumbent brands or those who historically prioritized television — are a secondary source of the growth. Overall,
digital advertising on pure-play platforms (not including spending by advertisers on digital extensions of traditional
media) represents 63% of the industry’s total this year and should amount to 71% in 2027.
Only five years ago that figure was 36% and ten years ago the figure was 17%, although it is worth noting that total
advertising activity has more than doubled in size over the past decade, driving most of digital advertising’s growth toa figure that we estimate will amount to more than $200 billion in 2022, covering all digital-only platforms.
Under a broader definition of digital advertising, which includes traditional media’s digital extensions, we estimate
the sector will account for $235 billion in 2022, or 68% of its total.

We expect advertising in the U.S.
including direct mail and directories togrow by 9.3% in 2022, slightly below ourprior 9.8% forecast from December due
to modest downward changes in digitaladvertising to better reflect updated dataand commentary from the medium’s
largest sellers of advertising.”

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APPENDIXRETAIL & E-COMMERCE
Within that total, although it remains a small share of thesector’s total, we think that retail or e-commerce media
should amount to around $40 billion after rising fromnext to nothing several years ago. We think growth should
generally outpace all other major forms of digital media inyears ahead.

We think that retail or ecommerce media shouldamount to around $40
billion after rising fromnext to nothing several
years ago.”

The world’s larger social media platforms will likely
collectively grow on pace with the broader digital media
sector, although TikTok at minimum should continue totake share so long as its usage levels remain high andnational security concerns are not acted upon. Searchcontinues to solidify its massive size, with Google
continuing to account for almost all related activity.

TV AND STREAMING
Meanwhile, after recovering during 2021 with double-digit growth,
television appears poised to produce solid growth, excluding the impact ofpolitical advertising, with a 3.4% gain for the overall medium during 2022,
including slightly better results in national TV and slightly worse ones inlocal TV. We are increasingly persuaded that some incremental growth hascome to television from new advertisers enabled by the advent of connected
TV. Put differently, the likes of Pluto, Tubi, Roku and Hulu have probably
caused some money that might otherwise have gone into digital media
platforms to shift onto consumers’ TV sets instead and caused higher levelsof growth than might otherwise have occurred last year and this year.
However, we don’t believe this causes a major step-change in the growthtrajectory of television in the long-run: TV is poised to revert to slightongoing declines in the coming years. Connected TV environments,
including digital ad inventory from streaming services, will capture shares ofexisting budgets much more than they will drive new ones into the industry.
The growing ad offerings of streaming services, which in their nascency had
no or very few ad breaks, better help marketers satisfy their reach andfrequency goals and encourage marketers to retain large budgets within theoverall medium. But ongoing declines in TV viewership paired withincreasing levels of cord-cutting continue to compromise the utility of themedium that marketers historically relied on to essentially reach everyone
with their campaigns. While television is still the best channel for achieving
reach and frequency goals compared to other media, its reduced
effectiveness encourages marketers to explore alternative media andmarketing strategies.
Notably, for many marketers, YouTube will look increasingly like a
substitute to television, at least for those who believe their traditional TV
creative is appropriate to use on YouTube, and for those who care more
about customer segments rather than the need to borrow brand equity of thecontent where their advertisements run. On the other hand, operations,workflows and integrated measurement across various forms of TV,
including YouTube, may present significant ongoing challenges that limit
the flows of spending across these media types.

After recovering
during 2021 withdouble-digit growth,
television appears
poised to produce
solid growth,
excluding theimpact of political
advertising, witha 3.4% gain for theoverall medium
during 2022,
including slightly
better results innational TV andslightly worse
ones in local TV.”

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APPENDIX

OOH
Meanwhile, outdoor advertising continues to rebound as it progresses toward pre-pandemic levels. Early 2022
has been strong as audiences have returned, people spend more time enjoying life out of the home again and new
movement patterns emerge. New brands are contributing, as are marketers in the travel category in particular,
and advancements in data-driven targeting are helping, too. However, economic challenges still present risks. We
forecast 9.9% ex-political growth for 2022, following on 2021’s comparable 21.0% growth rate. Digital OOH
inventory represents an increasingly large share of the business now, with just over a third of total revenue atpresent. We expect outdoor to exceed its 2019 volumes next year, indicating that much of the growth we areseeing now can still be characterized as recovery driven.

U.S. radio has a roughly
80-20 local-to-national
advertiser split, andthese locally-constrained
advertisers represent a
shrinking share of thebroader economy.”

AUDIO
Audio in its broadest definition may still need more time to fully
recover, if it ever will, as the industry remains substantially oriented
around locally constrained advertisers who increasingly represent a
shrinking share of the broader economy. For reference, in the U.K.
radio has an 80-20 national-to-local advertiser split, and in the U.S.
the ratio is approximately reversed. Still, there is much to be positive
about the broadly defined medium, especially with the evolution ofnewer digital services from traditional broadcasters, those from
Spotify and those that offer podcast advertising, for example.

PRINT
Many marketers are at least conceptually supportive of print-based media owners. Growing numbers of brands
appreciate the importance of this channel as social and cultural consciousness becomes more prevalent in media
buying. Concurrently, publishers have diversified their digital offerings to include multiple channels such as
podcasts, experiential and improved audience matching capabilities to help to ensure viability and long-term
growth, especially for publishers with a national or global orientation. Audiences are therefore robust and available
across a much larger spectrum of platforms. However, the broader factors causing decline previously — heightenedcompetition from digital platforms in particular — will continue to weigh on the sector, and many individual
publishers that continue to effectively harvest their businesses (i.e., focusing on drawing cash out rather thaninvesting more in) will constrain results for years to come.

POLITICAL ADVERTISING
Finally, we look to the impact of political advertising at an industry level, which is increasingly important every year,
but retains its massive impact every two years — including in 2022. Our new estimates call for $14 billion in ad
revenue associated with political campaigns in 2022, up modestly from $13 billion in 2020, but up significantly from2018’s $7 billion (including direct mail). Although we do expect a significant uptick in spending that will be
associated with polarizing issues, the absence of a presidential campaign this year limits the degree spending can
grow on a two-year basis.
On a four-year basis, relatively loose campaign financing laws continue to support rapid growth in this activity. Local
television continues to be a key beneficiary. In 2020, political advertising represented around a quarter of all local
TV, with substantially greater percentages in swing states and during periods with elections, but digital advertising,
too, is increasingly benefitting from political advertising, with an amount that we think is likely close to the amountdedicated to local TV.
Direct mail, radio and outdoor advertising are also finding political to be an important source of revenue, thoughthose media also need to be evaluated on an ex-political basis to properly assess underlying year-over-year trends.
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APPENDIX

2022 U.K. MID-YEAR
ADVERTISINGFORECAST
BREAKDOWN
U.K. ECONOMIC BACKDROP

7.8%

inflation increase, thehighest increase in 30 years

The economic situation in the U.K. generally mirrors that discussed above in the
global section. From the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) most recent release
covering April 2022, we saw inflation including housing costs of 7.8%, reflecting thehighest rate of price increases for more than 30 years. In response, The Bank of Englandhas raised and will continue to raise interest rates from historical lows, causing concerns that higher costsof capital will constrain economic activity before prices are under control, leading to fears of a stagflationary recession.

However, as negative as these factors are, like our
global outlook, economic conditions are actually
not quite so bad as headlines might suggest.
Let’s consider what expectations looked like for 2022 if we look at the year prior, when vaccines were beginning to beadministered and inflation was not yet a significant concern. At that time, consensus expectations for real (inflationadjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022, according to Refinitiv, amounted to 5.3% with inflation
expectations of just under 2%, for better than 7% growth in nominal terms. Fast forward to the present whereexpectations for 2022 growth in real terms are nearly 4% with inflation expectations exceeding 7%. As a result,nominal growth is implicitly forecast at around 11% during 2022. As This Year Next Year tracks nominal advertising
revenue growth, these nominal figures are the data we are ultimately paying the most attention to and represent the
singular economic variable to which one might most appropriately tie advertising growth.
Similarly, expectations for nominal growth in 2023 are higher now than they were last year, although of course werecognize the weaker expectations for real GDP growth reflect a less desirable outcome than might have been hoped
for at this point in 2021.
With these conditions, it would be unsurprising if most marketers generally continue to increase their advertisingbudgets at least in line with revenue growth. This occurs in part because many companies manage these budgets
in a relatively mechanical manner, but also because some need to sustain a media presence to justify higher prices.
Another rationale for increasing advertising is to avoid loss of share to competitors who, in a growing economy, willalmost certainly collectively advertise more to capitalize on the growth in consumer spending that is likely to occur.
At the same time, the three key secular drivers of advertising we mentioned in the global section are similarly taking
hold in the U.K.; however, the third secular factor as it relates to Chinese marketers advertising abroad tells asomewhat different story in the U.K. and the broader EMEA region. While it’s difficult to know the effect oflockdowns in China on advertising in the U.K., data at Facebook shows that ad revenue in EMEA apportioned
by consumers’ addresses showed no growth in the first quarter of 2022, while ad revenue in EMEA apportioned by
the billing address of advertisers would have grown by 6%. We presume that the gap of growth is due to a fall inadvertising from trans-border marketers, including those from China. Of course, if Chinese economic activity
returns to “normal” at some point in the year, such a reversal would be positive for advertising.

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APPENDIX

THE IMPACT OF NEW
GOVERNMENT POLICIESBeyond the broad changes in the economy that have generally evolved
independently of any one government’s choices, it is important tocontemplate the degree to which policies are positioned to impact themedia business.
In April 2022, the government issued a white paper outlining its
preferences. These reflect policies that would constrain the BBC bylimiting its borrowing and freezing its U.K. TV license fee, pursuing asale of C4, bringing foreign-owned SVOD services under Ofcom
jurisdiction and exploring ways to support U.K. broadcasters bycreating a “more level playing field” on the issue of platform liability.
Although we can certainly understand a policy that would ensurecommon regulations are applied equally to foreign-owned streaming
companies or locally owned broadcasters, this is far from the mostimportant factor impacting the competitive dynamics in the video
services business.

When it comes todigital media
platforms, there
are certainly
efforts underway
by the U.K.
government toimproveregulation, but thereal drivers ofchange will likely
come from themuch bigger EU
and U.S. markets.

Instead, the pursuit of global scale is much more important.
For example, Netflix spent £1 billion on U.K. productions in 2020 and likely exceeded this figure in 2021. In May ofthis year, Amazon announced its cumulative content spending in the U.K. was at £1 billion between 2018 and early2022 and, given the company’s trajectory on content spending, it would have probably spent £300-£400 million in
2021. For reference, ITV’s network schedule costs amounted to £1.1 billion in 2021, while C4’s were likely around£600 million. Both Netflix and Amazon have invested meaningfully enough in their global platforms — along witharound $20 billion and $10 billion in annual content costs, respectively, which continue to rise — allowing them tohave significant scale of distribution in almost every market. As a result, they can effectively amortize content costs
across greater numbers of users.
At the same time, U.K. viewers can access all this content with their existing subscriptions, making global streaming
services disproportionately competitive relative to their content budget sizes. The driver of competitive durability forthe television business will increasingly be determined by the content investments the industry’s participants makearound the world, not the degree to which regulators provide cover.
When it comes to digital media platforms, there are certainly efforts underway by the U.K. government to improve
regulation, but the real drivers of change will likely come from the much bigger EU and U.S. markets, as mentioned
in both the global and U.S. sections.
In that same vein, we think that efforts to impact the safety of digital platforms, as captured in the proposed 2021
Online Safety Bill, won’t necessarily impact how much money is in the market, but it could impact who the relative
beneficiaries are.
There are some policies that are designed to explicitly remove money from the media market, such as the pending
ban on HFSS foods, now set to come into effect in 2024. The direction of travel of this policy is very clear as well, andit will almost certainly have the effect of removing some money from the media market, especially as so manymarketers in these spaces allocate budgets to advertising in an effort to capture share of voice. To the extent brands
can no longer compete on this basis, they will likely find other ways to differentiate themselves in manners that do
not involve paid media.

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APPENDIX

ADVERTISING INDUSTRY GROWTH
With all of this in mind, we expect advertising in the U.K. to grow by 9.3% in 2022, slightly higher than our prior
7.3% forecast from December due to incremental increases in digital advertising growth expectations primarily,
following on the remarkable 39% growth rate observed during 2021. By the end of 2022, the U.K. will remain the
fourth-largest market in the world, only smaller than the U.S., China and Japan.
Presuming Japan continues with modest growth in the coming years, before long, the U.K. will be the third-largest
global market, although by 2027 the U.K. will be slightly behind if our forecast for £48 billion remains correct.
Generally, we hold the view that so long as real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth is positive, inflation should bea positive contributor to advertising growth — if economy-wide inflation runs hotter than we expect this year, so too
should our forecasts for advertising because of the general impact inflation has on advertiser budgets.
Digital advertising continues to expand at a rapid clip, growing by 45% during 2021, with a further 10.4% forecast
for 2022. The secular drivers described elsewhere in this document are certainly factors but shifts from existing
advertisers — incumbent brands or those who historically prioritized television — are a secondary source of growth.
Overall, digital advertising on pure-play platforms (not including spending by advertisers on digital extensions of
traditional media) represents 79% of the industry’s total this year and should amount to 83% in 2027. Only five years
ago that figure was 60% and ten years ago the figure was 36%, although it is worth noting that total advertising
activity has tripled in size over the past decade, driving most of this growth.

RETAIL & E-COMMERCE
We think that retail or
e-commerce media
should amount to several
billion pounds of activity
in 2022 after rising fromnext to nothing several
years ago.”

Within that total, although it remains as a small shareof the sector’s total, we think that retail or e-commerce
media should amount to several billion pounds ofactivity in 2022 after rising from next to nothing
several years ago. We think growth should generally
outpace all other major forms of digital media in years
ahead. The world’s larger social media platforms will
likely collectively grow on pace with the broader digital
media sector, although TikTok at minimum should
continue to take share so long as its usage levels
remain high and national security concerns are notacted upon. Search continues to solidify its massive
size, with Google continuing to account for almost all
related activity.

35

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APPENDIXTV AND STREAMING
Meanwhile, after recovering during 2021 with double-digit growth, bringing
advertising back above 2019 levels, television is poised to revert toward historicalnorms of low single-digit growth at best, or a flattening at worst, after growing
24% in 2021 and positioning itself to grow 3% in 2022. The comparables with lastyears’ UEFA European Championship in the second quarter will lead to a decline
in the middle of the year, while the fourth quarter should be particularly strong
given the timing of the 2022 World Cup. Looking ahead to 2024, television in the
U.K. will face the looming introduction of restrictions on HFSS advertising, oradvertising of food and drink high in saturated fat, salt and sugar.
The presence of streaming services is further impacting the ad-supported
television industry in meaningful ways.
We recognize that consumers are willing to spend a growing share of theirdiscretionary budgets on streaming services partly because those services
continue to invest aggressively in original, compelling and high-value
programming, offering significant value relative to other forms of entertainment.
Consequently, a growing share of consumer time becomes devoted to premium
streaming services. Of course, the emergence of streaming business models brings
the likes of Pluto and Rakuten with their FAST (free ad-supported TV) linear
programming to complement broadcasters’ existing BVOD offerings, which also
contain advertisements.
Going forward, many of the ad-free services are expected to launch new adsupported tiers, bringing additional advertising inventory to market. Still, because
so much of streaming viewing is in ad-free or ad-light environments, consumers
are collectively exposed to fewer commercials, and many marketers are finding
their historical reach and frequency goals increasingly difficult to accomplish.
Some of this negative impact could be offset by the availability of addressable
advertising on the digital video inventory. Although a common use case foraddressable advertising is to narrowly target specific groups of consumers via
satellite or cable-based distribution platforms, efforts to find audiences nototherwise reached through traditional ad-supported TV will help support
marketers who continue to rely on reach and frequency marketing goals.
Another approach that can help mitigate the rise of ad-free streaming video
consumption will include the development and deployment of brand-supported
content to streaming services’ libraries. Similarly, we expect those services should
be increasingly open to working with marketers on brand integrations that feelorganic and relatively innocuous to a program’s producers.
For many marketers, YouTube will look increasingly like a substitute to television,at least for those who believe their traditional TV creative is appropriate to use on
YouTube, and for those who care more about customer segments rather than theneed to borrow brand equity of the content where their advertisements run.
Of course, when broadcasters such as C4 make their content available on
YouTube, it does have the effect of raising the perceived quality and desirabilityof YouTube’s inventory, and such availabilities may cause some advertisers to
shift spending away from broadcasters and into YouTube at a faster pace thanmight otherwise have occurred. But operations and workflows, as well as
integrated measurement across various forms of TV, including YouTube, may
present significant ongoing challenges, limiting the flow of spending acrossthese media types.

OOH
Outdoor advertisingcontinues to rebound as itprogresses toward prepandemic levels. Early 2022
has been strong as audiences
have returned, as people
spend more time enjoying
life out of the home again
and as new movement
patterns emerge. New
brands are contributing, as
are marketers in the travel
category in particular, andadvancements in data-driven
targeting are helping, too.
However, theaforementioned economic
challenges and looming
HFSS regulations presentrisks. We forecast 26%
growth for 2022, following
on 2021’s 29% growth rate.
Digital OOH inventory
continues to represent thebulk of the business now,with 64% share at present.
We expect outdoor to exceed
its 2019 volumes by 2025,
indicating that much of thegrowth we are seeing canstill be characterized as
recovery driven.

Outdooradvertisingcontinues torebound as itprogresses
toward prepandemic
levels; we
forecast 26%
growthfor 2022.”
36

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APPENDIX

AUDIO

Remarkably, audio didn’t need much more time to rebound as 2021 represented a year where the business exceeded2019 levels, so growth for the medium has to be driven by new advertisers or by greater levels of spending by existing
ones. We expect audio will grow by approximately 3% this year and generally flatten out in subsequent periods. As
with television, growth was substantial during the first quarter of 2022 — probably up 16% — and growth shouldtemper over the course of the year.
There is much to be positive about the medium given these figures, especially the evolution of newer digital services
including the likes of Spotify, Acast, Podfront, AMillionsAds, SayItNow, Amazon and others. These services are allcomplementary to the commercialization of audio, attracting new customers to the medium and helping to develop
new ad models and services. Booking flexibility and granular geographical access means advertiser revenue has comefrom a range of categories.

PRINT
Many marketers are at least conceptually supportive of
print-based media owners. Growing numbers ofbrands appreciate the importance of this channel associal and cultural consciousness becomes moreprevalent in media buying. This is not without its
challenges from brands, especially in the U.K. withheavy political leanings, but it does bring to the fore
the attention and quality components, which only truly
professionally produced content can garner. Whether
for this reason or others — such as the return ofadvertising categories like travel and entertainment, orthe easy comparable with 1Q21’s lockdowns — print
has experienced a sturdy start to 2022, much as wehave seen with television. Similarly, a slowdown in thesecond quarter should be expected on difficultcomparables and the fourth quarter should see thesame football-driven rebound.
Publishers have also benefitted as print circulation
declines are finding a bottom as publishers havediversified their digital offerings to include multiple
channels such as podcasts, experiential and improved
audience matching capabilities. Audiences are
therefore robust and available across a much larger
spectrum of platforms. Moreover, concentration fornews brands has proved to be helpful at this stage, as
four publishers now represent the entire sales
operation for national print, which provides a greater
ability to grow reach within that medium with fewer
conversations than in the past. Beyond the broader
factors causing decline previously — heightenedcompetition from digital platforms in particular —other factors will still weigh on publishers, such as awinding down of heightened levels of governmentdriven spending supporting journalism and publicannouncements related to the pandemic.

We expect audio will grow byapproximately 3% this yearand generally flatten out in
subsequent periods.

CINEMA
Finally, we look to cinema advertising, which has
always had an importance on media plans that
outpaced its modest size. The pandemic led to cinema
closures and, of course, meant there was essentially no
audience to advertise to through this medium. Under
normal circumstances, once a medium is eliminatedfrom a marketer’s plans, it can be difficult to get backon those plans. However, the October 2021 release of
the most recent James Bond film, “No Time to Die,”
served as a catalyst for many marketers to return.
Although we expect that returning to pre-pandemic
levels will prove difficult, we are seeing a significant
return as new titles are released and audiences begin
to come back. This year alone we’ve had films from theSpider-Man, Batman and Doctor Strange franchises all
break records. While there are, of course, many films
released in cinemas now, many of these titles were
held up during the pandemic. Going forward, thedominant American studios are prioritizing
distribution of their existing films through theirowned-and-operated streaming platforms while
similarly prioritizing development of future titles for
those same platforms. This will reduce admissions andlimit the medium’s rebound.

We are seeing a significant
return as new titles are released
and audiences begin to come back.”
37

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APPENDIX

2022 BY THE
NUMBERS
9.5%

9.3%

GrowthGrowth

10%

3.3%

9.1%

GrowthGrowth11%

GrowthGrowth8.5%

Growth22%

Growth13%

5.8%

Growth

1 U.S

GDP……………....……$25 T
Population............. 332 M
Ad Revenue……..…$316 B
Ad Rev Growth…..……10%.

2 CHINA

GDP………………..…….$20 T
Population................ 1.41 B
Ad Revenue…….....…$150 B
Ad Rev Growth…...……3.3%

3 JAPAN

GDP………….....…….$4.5 T
Population.............. 126 M
Ad Revenue….……$52.9 B
Ad Rev Growth………8.5%

Source: GroupM, IMF, World Bank

Growth

4 U.K.

GDP……………..…….$3.3 T
Population.............67.2 M
Ad Revenue….……$49.3 B
Ad Rev Growth………9.3%

5 GERMANY
GDP…………………….$4.2 T
Population.............. 83.2 M
Ad Revenue……...…$32.1 B
Ad Rev Growth..………9.1%

6 FRANCE
GDP………………..…….$2.9 T
Population.................67.4 M
Ad Revenue…….....…$26.1 B
Ad Rev Growth…......……11%

7 BRAZIL
GDP……………………$2.0 T
Population.............. 213 M
Ad Revenue…….…$16.9 B
Ad Rev Growth…..……13%

8 CANADA
GDP…………...……….$2.2 T
Population............. 38.0 M
Ad Revenue….….…$16.2 B
Ad Rev Growth…....…9.5%

GDP………………....….$1.8 T
Population.............. 25.7 M
Ad Revenue……...…$14.7 B
Ad Rev Growth…..……5.8%

10 INDIA

GDP……………….…….$3.4 T
Population............... 1.38 B
Ad Revenue……...…$13.9 B
Ad Rev Growth……...…22%38

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APPENDIX

Global Summary Data Table
U.S. Dollars
in Millions

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

TV / Pro. Video$164,237.9$162,614.7$164,167.2$160,375.7$160,865.8$158,981.7$138,823.5$157,881.9$164,769.3$169,970.2$173,557.6$176,973.9$179,951.9$181,744.4

2.7%

-1.0%

1.0%

-2.3%

0.3%

-1.2%

-12.7%

13.7%

4.4%

3.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.7%

1.0%

• Growth• Share- Traditional TV• Growth

37.2%

35.0%

33.1%

30.1%

27.7%

25.1%

22.3%

20.4%

19.7%

19.1%

18.4%

17.9%

17.4%

16.9%

161,467.5

158,955.6

159,112.8

153,783.7

152,016.0

148,336.6

126,226.1

140,797.5

143,633.9

144,688.3

144,398.9

144,220.0

143,529.6

143,594.9

2.3%

-1.6%

0.1%

-3.3%

-1.1%

-2.4%

-14.9%

11.5%

2.0%

0.7%

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.5%

0.0%

• Share

98.3%

97.7%

96.9%

95.9%

94.5%

93.3%

90.9%

89.2%

87.2%

85.1%

83.2%

81.5%

79.8%

79.0%

- ConnectedTV+2,770.5

3,659.1

5,054.5

6,592.0

8,849.8

10,645.1

12,597.3

17,084.4

21,135.5

25,281.9

29,158.7

32,753.9

36,422.3

38,149.4• Growth

34.8%

32.1%

38.1%

30.4%

34.3%

20.3%

18.3%

35.6%

23.7%

19.6%

15.3%

12.3%

11.2%

4.7%

• Share

1.7%

2.3%

3.1%

4.1%

5.5%

6.7%

9.1%

10.8%

12.8%

14.9%

16.8%

18.5%

20.2%

21.0%

Audio

30,415.0

30,700.0

30,867.7

31,355.9

30,835.2

30,934.3

22,906.7

26,713.2

28,225.5

28,631.3

28,788.4

28,689.6

28,925.0

28,852.7

-0.2%

0.9%

0.5%

1.6%

-1.7%

0.3%

-26.0%

16.6%

5.7%

1.4%

0.5%

-0.3%

0.8%

-0.2%

• Growth• ShareNewspapers

6.9%

6.6%

6.2%

5.9%

5.3%

4.9%

3.7%

3.5%

3.4%

3.2%

3.1%

2.9%

2.8%

2.7%

63,197.0

59,985.7

54,338.5

50,377.8

45,530.1

41,678.9

30,291.9

31,600.1

30,307.6

29,172.8

28,128.8

27,160.3

26,515.9

25,727.2-3.0%• Growth-12.2%

-5.1%

-9.4%

-7.3%

-9.6%

-8.5%

-27.3%

4.3%

-4.1%

-3.7%

-3.6%

-3.4%

-2.4%

• Share

14.3%

12.9%

11.0%

9.5%

7.8%

6.6%

4.9%

4.1%

3.6%

3.3%

3.0%

2.8%

2.6%

2.4%

35,082.4

32,312.3

29,506.9

27,582.5

25,479.6

23,998.0

18,847.1

19,534.9

18,679.3

17,691.8

16,921.9

16,282.8

15,729.4

15,060.4• Growth

-5.9%

-7.9%

-8.7%

-6.5%

-7.6%

-5.8%

-21.5%

3.6%

-4.4%

-5.3%

-4.4%

-3.8%

-3.4%

-4.3%

• Share

7.9%

7.0%

6.0%

5.2%

4.4%

3.8%

3.0%

2.5%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

1.7%

1.5%

1.4%

Outdoor

28,712.8

29,605.7

31,303.9

34,086.5

36,597.5

36,561.6

27,213.3

32,581.0

32,367.5

34,330.1

36,618.1

38,662.9

40,206.6

41,675.9• Growth

5.6%

3.1%

5.7%

8.9%

7.4%

-0.1%

-25.6%

19.7%

-0.7%

6.1%

6.7%

5.6%

4.0%

3.7%

• Share

6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

6.4%

6.3%

5.8%

4.4%

4.2%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%
26,619.3

Magazines- Traditional
Outdoor

22,883.8

23,536.6

23,865.6

25,456.4

26,082.2

25,709.6

18,948.6

21,785.4

22,083.9

23,153.7

23,977.4

25,025.2

25,752.3• Growth

0.4%

2.9%

1.4%

6.7%

2.5%

-1.4%

-26.3%

15.0%

1.4%

4.8%

3.6%

4.4%

2.9%

3.4%

• Share

79.7%

79.5%

76.2%

74.7%

71.3%

70.3%

69.6%

66.9%

68.2%

67.4%

65.5%

64.7%

64.0%

63.9%

- Digital OOH

5,829.1

6,069.1

7,438.2

8,630.0

10,515.3

10,852.0

8,264.7

10,795.6

10,283.6

11,176.4

12,640.7

13,637.8

14,454.3

15,056.6• Growth

32.5%

4.1%

22.6%

16.0%

21.8%

3.2%

-23.8%

30.6%

-4.7%

8.7%

13.1%

7.9%

6.0%

4.2%

• Share

20.3%

20.5%

23.8%

25.3%

28.7%

29.7%

30.4%

33.1%

31.8%

32.6%

34.5%

35.3%

36.0%

36.1%

Cinema3,202.8

2,044.5

2,096.3

2,144.4

2,571.4

2,751.6

594.2

845.8

1,984.5

2,191.8

2,286.2

2,356.9

2,420.8

2,477.9• Growth

82.3%-36.2%

2.5%

2.3%

19.9%

7.0%

-78.4%

42.3%

134.6%

10.4%

4.3%

3.1%

2.7%

2.4%

• Share

0.7%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

117,116.6

147,374.2

183,168.2

226,867.4

278,160.8

338,515.8

382,513.6

503,249.9

561,161.4

608,945.0

654,404.2

696,372.4

738,065.7

779,839.8• Growth

17.9%

25.8%

24.3%

23.9%

22.6%

21.7%

13.0%

31.6%

11.5%

8.5%

7.5%

6.4%

6.0%

5.7%

• Share

26.5%

31.7%

37.0%

42.6%

48.0%

53.4%

61.6%

65.2%

67.0%

68.3%

69.6%

70.6%

71.5%

73%

- Search

57,905.7

67,483.3

76,804.6

89,127.6

103,407.5

117,084.0

124,715.9

165,614.7

190,215.4

204,685.5

221,430.0

233,787.1

249,520.5

259,913.9• Growth

18.9%

16.5%

13.8%

16.0%

16.0%

13.2%

6.5%

32.8%

14.9%

7.6%

8.2%

5.6%

6.7%

4.2%

• Share

13.1%

14.5%

15.5%

16.7%

17.8%

18.5%

20.1%

21.4%

22.7%

23.0%

23.5%

23.7%

24.2%

24.2%

59,210.9

79,890.9

106,363.6

137,739.8

174,753.2

221,431.8

257,797.7

337,635.3

370,946.0

404,259.4

432,974.2

462,585.3

488,545.2

519,925.9• Growth

16.9%

34.9%

33.1%

29.5%

26.9%

26.7%

16.4%

31.0%

9.9%

9.0%

7.1%

6.8%

5.6%

6.4%

• Share

13.4%

17.2%

21.5%

25.9%

30.1%

35.0%

41.5%

43.7%

44.3%

45.4%

46.0%

46.9%

47.3%

48.3%

$441,964.5$464,637.2$495,448.7$532,790.2$580,040.4$633,421.9$621,190.3$772,406.8$837,495.1$890,933.1$940,705.2$986,498.9

Digital PurePlay- Ex-Search

Advertising ExU.S. Political• Growth$1,031,815.2 $1,075,378.2

3.3%

5.1%

6.6%

7.5%

8.9%

9.2%

-1.9%

24.3%

8.4%

6.4%

5.6%

4.9%

4.6%

4.2%

U.S. Political
Advertising

3,828.4

973.7

5,858.0

1,768.3

6,439.5

1,907.6

11,987.8

2,282.3

12,560.5

2,478.7

14,205.6

2,734.1

15,681.1

2,215.4

Total
Advertising$445,792.9$465,610.9$501,306.7$534,558.5$586,480.0$635,329.4$633,178.1$774,689.1$850,055.6$893,411.8$954,910.7

4.0%

4.4%

7.7%

6.6%

9.7%

8.3%

-0.3%

22.3%

9.7%

5.1%

6.9%

• Growth$989,232.9 $1,047,496.3 $1,077,593.6
3.6%

5.9%

2.9%

39

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GLOBALI

APPENDIX

U.S. Summary Data Table
U.S. Dollars
in Millions

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

TV / Pro. Video$71,274.4$64,504.6$64,725.0$67,350.7$65,657.1$66,058.3$65,897.5$59,963.6$68,399.4$70,696.7$71,966.2$71,866.2$72,554.4$72,176.2• Growth

3.3%

0.3%

4.1%

-2.5%

0.6%

-0.2%

-9.0%

14.1%

3.4%

1.8%

-0.1%

1.0%

-0.5%

-1.2%

• Share

33.9%

32.8%

32.6%

30.1%

28.5%

26.6%

25.5%

22.7%

21.4%

20.6%

19.5%

18.7%

17.8%

16.9%
49,541.7- Traditional TV

62,951.4

62,511.7

64,197.9

61,832.2

61,120.7

60,145.0

52,840.9

58,967.2

58,745.1

57,437.6

55,254.6

53,514.8

50,907.0• Growth

2.7%

-0.7%

2.7%

-3.7%

-1.2%

-1.6%

-12.1%

11.6%

-0.4%

-2.2%

-3.8%

-3.1%

-4.9%

-2.7%

• Share

97.6%

96.6%

95.3%

94.2%

92.5%

91.3%

88.1%

86.2%

83.1%

79.8%

76.9%

73.8%

70.5%

69.5%
21,732.7- Connected TV+

1,553.1

2,213.3

3,152.7

3,824.9

4,937.6

5,752.5

7,122.7

9,432.3

11,951.6

14,528.6

16,611.6

19,039.6

21,269.2• Growth

38.6%

42.5%

42.4%

21.3%

29.1%

16.5%

23.8%

32.4%

26.7%

21.6%

14.3%

14.6%

11.7%

2.2%

• Share

2.4%

3.4%

4.7%

5.8%

7.5%

8.7%

11.9%

13.8%

16.9%

20.2%

23.1%

26.2%

29.5%

30.5%

Audio

16,315.6

16,420.6

16,727.4

16,714.0

16,143.5

16,481.7

12,013.2

14,595.1

15,551.7

15,610.6

15,546.9

15,355.9

15,237.3

15,004.8• Growth

-1.8%

0.6%

1.9%

-0.1%

-3.4%

2.1%

-27.1%

21.5%

6.6%

0.4%

-0.4%

-1.2%

-0.8%

-1.5%

• Share

8.6%

8.3%

8.1%

7.7%

7.0%

6.7%

5.1%

4.8%

4.7%

4.5%

4.2%

4.0%

3.8%

3.6%

21,677.8

20,269.2

17,802.4

16,374.6

14,046.0

12,532.3

9,082.2

9,694.3

8,988.9

8,479.2

8,023.3

7,649.7

7,386.8

7,050.8• Growth

-7.8%

-6.5%

-12.2%-8.0%-14.2%-10.8%-27.5%

6.7%

-7.3%

-5.7%

-5.4%

-4.7%

-3.4%

-4.5%

• Share

11.4%

10.3%

8.6%

7.5%

6.1%

5.1%

3.9%

3.2%

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

1.7%

18,634.7

17,428.3

16,037.9

15,070.3

14,214.4

13,577.6

10,791.2

11,418.2

10,788.9

10,037.5

9,482.9

8,988.6

8,583.5

8,084.9• Growth

-7.1%

-6.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-5.7%

-4.5%

-20.5%

5.8%

-5.5%

-7.0%

-5.5%

-5.2%

-4.5%

-5.8%

• Share

9.8%

8.8%

7.8%

6.9%

6.1%

5.5%

4.6%

3.8%

3.3%

2.9%

2.6%

2.3%

2.1%

1.9%

Outdoor

6,249.1

6,583.5

6,647.7

6,799.3

7,117.2

7,730.3

5,630.6

6,815.0

7,489.2

7,938.5

8,375.1

8,793.9

9,189.6

9,557.2• Growth

0.3%

5.4%

1.0%

2.3%

4.7%

8.6%

-27.2%

21.0%

9.9%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

• Share

3.3%

3.3%

3.2%

3.1%

3.1%

3.1%

2.4%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

- Traditional
Outdoor

4,567.7

4,714.6

4,607.6

4,619.1

4,798.6

5,057.8

4,049.8

4,685.0

4,893.8

4,982.8

4,991.8

5,079.4

5,152.1

5,361.6• Growth

-2.9%

3.2%

-2.3%

0.3%

3.9%

5.4%

-19.9%

15.7%

4.5%

1.8%

0.2%

1.8%

1.4%

4.1%

• Share

73.1%

71.6%

69.3%

67.9%

67.4%

65.4%

71.9%

68.7%

65.3%

62.8%

59.6%

57.8%

56.1%

56.1%

- Digital OOH

1,681.4

1,868.9

2,040.1

2,180.3

2,318.6

2,672.5

1,580.8

2,130.0

2,595.3

2,955.7

3,383.3

3,714.4

4,037.5

4,195.6• Growth

10.3%

11.1%

9.2%

6.9%

6.3%

15.3%

-40.8%

34.7%

21.8%

13.9%

14.5%

9.8%

8.7%

3.9%

• Share

26.9%

28.4%

30.7%

32.1%

32.6%

34.6%

28.1%

31.3%

34.7%

37.2%

40.4%

42.2%

43.9%

43.9%

Newspapers

Magazines

Cinema

631.9

716.4

758.3

750.7

781.2

809.7

149.4

185.0

550.0

565.5

578.2

587.7

593.9

596.6

• Growth

-6.8%

13.4%

5.8%

-1.0%

4.1%

3.7%

-81.6%

23.8%

197.3%

2.8%

2.2%

1.7%

1.1%

0.5%

• Share

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

40,818.3

49,451.7

60,998.1

77,527.2

94,854.4

112,550.0

124,271.5

175,204.0

201,179.6

221,310.6

241,986.2

261,232.3

280,395.4

299,104.8
6.7%

Digital Pure-Play• Growth

16.1%

21.2%

23.3%

27.1%

22.3%

18.7%

10.4%

41.0%

14.8%

10.0%

9.3%

8.0%

7.3%

• Share

21.4%

25.1%

29.6%

35.5%

41.0%

45.5%

52.8%

58.0%

61.0%

63.3%

65.6%

67.4%

69.3%

71%

- Search

24,901.3

29,289.9

34,095.0

40,470.047,800.0

54,400.0

57,228.5

77,937.9

91,524.8

96,710.1

105,151.1

108,903.8

116,221.9

118,209.2• Growth

17.0%

17.6%

16.4%

18.7%

18.1%

13.8%

5.2%

36.2%

17.4%

5.7%

8.7%

3.6%

6.7%

1.7%

• Share

13.1%

14.8%

16.5%

18.5%

20.7%

22.0%

24.3%

25.8%

27.7%

27.7%

28.5%

28.1%

28.7%

28.1%

- Ex-Search

15,917.0

20,161.9

26,903.1

37,057.2

47,054.4

58,150.0

67,043.0

97,266.2

109,654.9

124,600.4

136,835.1

152,328.5

164,173.5

180,895.6• Growth

14.7%

26.7%

33.4%

37.7%

27.0%

23.6%

15.3%

45.1%

12.7%

13.6%

9.8%

11.3%

7.8%

10.2%

• Share

8.4%

10.2%

13.0%

17.0%

20.3%

23.5%

28.5%

32.2%

33.2%

35.6%

37.1%

39.3%

40.6%

43.0%

$168,832.0$175,594.8$186,322.4$198,893.1$213,215.0$229,579.1$221,901.6$286,311.0$315,245.0$335,908.2$355,858.8$375,162.4$393,562.7$410,673.4

Advertising ExU.S. Political• Growth

2.5%

4.0%

6.1%

6.7%

7.2%

7.7%

-3.3%

29.0%

10.1%

6.6%

5.9%

5.4%

4.9%

4.3%

U.S. Political
Advertising

3,828.4

973.7

5,858.0

1,768.3

6,439.5

1,907.6

11,987.8

2,282.3

12,560.5

2,478.7

14,205.6

2,734.1

15,681.1

2,215.4

Advertising(GlobalDefinition)$172,660.4$176,568.5$192,180.4$200,661.4$219,654.6$231,486.6$233,889.3$288,593.3$327,805.6$338,386.9$370,064.3$377,896.5$409,243.8$412,888.8

4.4%

2.3%

8.8%

4.4%

9.5%

5.4%

1.0%

23.4%

13.6%

3.2%

9.4%

2.1%

8.3%

0.9%

• Growth

U.S. Standard Definition of Advertising Additional Items & Relevant Political Advertising Figures
Direct Mail

$16,875.8$17,374.0$16,331.0$16,151.0$15,465.0$15,655.6$11,794.4$14,474.2$13,752.2$13,178.6$12,612.3$11,887.1$11,005.3$10,182.5• Growth

0.9%

3.0%

-6.0%

-1.1%

-4.2%

1.2%

-24.7%

22.7%

-5.0%

-4.2%

-4.3%

-5.7%

-7.4%

-7.5%

• Share

8.9%

8.8%

7.9%

7.4%

6.7%

6.3%

5.0%

4.8%

4.2%

3.8%

3.4%

3.1%

2.7%

2.4%

4,707.0

4,320.0

3,758.0

3,342.0

2,706.0

2,118.1

1,502.7

1,165.8

892.0

595.9

444.2

311.4

224.3

128.0

• Growth

4.9%

-8.2%

-13.0%-11.1%-19.0%-21.7%-29.1%-22.4%-23.5%-33.2%-25.5%-29.9%-28.0%-42.9%• Share

2.5%

2.2%

1.8%

1.5%

1.2%

0.9%

0.6%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

$190,414.8$197,288.8$206,411.4$218,386.1$231,386.0$247,352.7$235,198.7$301,951.0$329,889.3$349,682.7$368,915.2$387,361.0$404,792.2$420,983.9

Directories

Advertising ExU.S. Political• Growth

2.4%

3.6%

4.6%

5.8%

6.0%

6.9%

-4.9%

28.4%

9.3%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

U.S. Political
Advertising

4,280.0

1,078.7

6,391.5

1,883.3

7,071.5

2,139.6

12,914.8

2,492.2

13,560.5

2,803.7

15,255.6

3,084.1

16,781.1

3,315.4

Total
Advertising$194,694.8$198,367.5$212,802.9$220,269.4$238,457.6$249,492.3$248,113.5$304,443.2$343,449.8$352,486.4$384,170.8$390,445.0$421,573.3$424,299.3

4.3%

1.9%

7.3%

3.5%

8.3%

4.6%

-0.6%

22.7%

12.8%

2.6%

9.0%

1.6%

8.0%

0.6%

• Growth40

JUNE 2022•

THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I

GLOBALI

APPENDIX

U.K. Summary Data Table
U.K. Pounds
in Millions

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

TV / Pro. Video

$4,076.1$4,370.8$4,432.6$4,290.7$4,395.9$4,289.1$3,870.2$4,803.0$4,948.0$4,994.0$4,954.7$4,903.1$4,841.8$4,770.3• Growth

4.5%

7.2%

1.4%

-3.2%

2.5%

-2.4%

-9.8%

24.1%

3.0%

0.9%

-0.8%

-1.0%

-1.2%

-1.5%

• Share

25.9%

25.4%

23.3%

20.6%

19.0%

16.5%

14.9%

13.3%

12.5%

11.9%

11.4%

10.9%

10.4%

9.9%

3,955.9

4,225.4

4,267.1

4,036.9

4,059.7

3,896.2

3,410.3

4,158.1

4,184.5

4,136.1

4,016.8

3,889.2

3,755.8

3,616.8- Traditional TV• Growth

4.3%

6.8%

1.0%

-5.4%

0.6%

-4.0%

-12.5%

21.9%

0.6%

-1.2%

-2.9%

-3.2%

-3.4%

-3.7%

• Share

97.0%

96.7%

96.3%

94.1%

92.4%

90.8%

88.1%

86.6%

84.6%

82.8%

81.1%

79.3%

77.6%

75.8%

- BVOD /Connected TV+

120.3

145.3

165.5

253.8

336.2

392.9

460.0

644.9

763.4

857.9

937.9

1,013.9

1,086.0

1,153.4• Growth

13.6%

20.8%

13.9%

53.4%

32.4%

16.9%

17.1%

40.2%

18.4%

12.4%

9.3%

8.1%

7.1%

6.2%

• Share

3.0%

3.3%

3.7%

5.9%

7.6%

9.2%

11.9%

13.4%

15.4%

17.2%

18.9%

20.7%

22.4%

24.2%

Audio

486.9

517.0

562.6

602.9

614.1

596.1

511.4

654.3

673.2

682.3

676.9

666.9

655.3

642.1

• Growth

7.0%

6.2%

8.8%

7.2%

1.9%

-2.9%

-14.2%

27.9%

2.9%

1.3%

-0.8%

-1.5%

-1.7%

-2.0%

• Share

3.1%

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

2.7%

2.3%

2.0%

1.8%

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.5%

1.4%

1.3%

2,230.1

2,038.8

1,797.2

1,640.5

1,534.8

1,458.3

1,031.4

1,153.1

1,114.9

1,004.1

924.7

889.6

869.5

846.9

• Growth

-4.1%

-8.6%

-11.8%

-8.7%

-6.4%

-5.0%

-29.3%

11.8%

-3.3%

-9.9%

-7.9%

-3.8%

-2.3%

-2.6%

• Share

14.2%

11.8%

9.4%

7.9%

6.6%

5.6%

4.0%

3.2%

2.8%

2.4%

2.1%

2.0%

1.9%

1.8%

- National
Newsbrands

1,164.7

1,039.2

929.2

886.5

851.2

846.8

632.6

719.2

696.7

623.5

572.3

558.6

554.9

550.2

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

52.2%

51.0%

51.7%

54.0%

55.5%

58.1%

61.3%

62.4%

62.5%

62.1%

61.9%

62.8%

63.8%

65.0%

- Regional
Newsbrands

1,065.4

999.6

868.0

754.0

683.6

611.6

398.8

433.9

418.2

380.6

352.4

330.9

314.6

296.7

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

47.8%

49.0%

48.3%

46.0%

44.5%

41.9%

38.7%

37.6%

37.5%

37.9%

38.1%

37.2%

36.2%

35.0%

Magazines

844.2

800.2

745.7

659.6

610.1

556.3

393.2

472.9

458.0

422.8

394.0

394.3

394.1

393.5

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Newspapers• Share

5.4%

4.7%

3.9%

3.2%

2.6%

2.1%

1.5%

1.3%

1.2%

1.0%

0.9%

0.9%

0.8%

0.8%

Outdoor

815.2

846.4

902.1

915.5

967.3

1,040.6

559.4

721.1

907.2

1,003.4

1,054.4

1,125.0

1,164.4

1,205.2• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

5.2%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.2%

4.0%

2.2%

2.0%

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

- Traditional
Outdoor

597.7

576.9

559.9

495.0

484.9

485.4

227.4

259.7

290.3

301.0

300.5

303.8

296.9

289.2

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

73.3%

68.2%

62.1%

54.1%

50.1%

46.6%

40.7%

36.0%

32.0%

30.0%

28.5%

27.0%

25.5%

24.0%

- Digital OOH

217.5

269.5

342.2

420.6

482.4

555.3

331.9

461.4

616.9

702.4

753.9

821.3

867.5

915.9

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

26.7%

31.8%

37.9%

45.9%

49.9%

53.4%

59.3%

64.0%

68.0%

70.0%

71.5%

73.0%

74.5%

76.0%

Cinema

169.2

181.1

188.8

191.7

187.7

212.4

39.1

73.0

179.6

182.0

185.0

186.9

188.8

190.6

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

1.1%

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.8%

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Digital PurePlay

7,124.6

8,451.6

10,391.3

12,525.2

14,840.0

17,775.3

19,525.1

28,214.9

31,157.4

33,516.0

35,287.1

36,832.6

38,459.4

40,155.0• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

45.2%

49.1%

54.6%

60.1%

64.1%

68.6%

75.3%

78.2%

79.0%

80.2%

81.2%

81.9%

82.6%

83.3%

- Search

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

- Ex-Search

7,124.6

8,451.6

10,391.3

12,525.2

14,840.0

17,775.3

19,525.1

28,214.9

31,157.4

33,516.0

35,287.1

36,832.6

38,459.4

40,155.0• Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Share

45.2%

49.1%

54.6%

60.1%

64.1%

68.6%

75.3%

78.2%

79.0%

80.2%

81.2%

81.9%

82.6%

83.3%

$15,746.2$17,206.0$19,020.3$20,826.2$23,149.9$25,928.2$25,929.8$36,092.3$39,438.3$41,804.6$43,476.7$44,998.4$46,573.4$48,203.4

10.3%

9.3%

10.5%

9.5%

11.2%

12.0%

0.0%

39.2%

9.3%

6.0%

4.0%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

Total
Advertising• Growth

41

AUTHORSBRIAN WIESERPRESIDENT,
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

KATE SCOTT-DAWKINSGLOBAL DIRECTOR,
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

42

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