Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for
Coffee Farmers in North Sumatra and Aceh
Conservation International (CI) and Starbucks
Coffee Company have been working inNorth Sumatra and Aceh, Indonesia forthree years to understand both the threats
and opportunities climate change presents
for local coffee farmers and their uniqueenvironments.
Through this important partnership, we are testing approaches
to manage risks and developing new strategies for addressing
climate change that will benefit both farmers and the ecosystems
upon which they depend.
The concept of vulnerability has been used for more than 20years to help governments and businesses manage the impactsof climate change. The basic definitions in the context of farm
productivity and climate change are as follows:
Vulnerability is when farmers are unable to cope with the likely
impacts of climate change. They experience reduced yields andincomes as a result of new climate conditions. For example, coffee
production in some villages has become more vulnerable to pests
and diseases due to climate change.
Adaptation is the approach farmers use to reduce this vulnerability.
They change their practices to help maintain their yields andincomes in new climate conditions. For example, to adapt topests and diseases, farmers can improve their management of thecoffee borer by using traps.

Climate Change and Coffee
As coffee is only grown in tropical areas, farmers
expect a wide range of climatic conditions, butthere are many ways in which climate change canaffect coffee production. The areas that are currently
suitable for coffee production may become lesssuitable due to changes in temperature and rainfall
profiles while other locations may become moresuitable. In addition, farmers may be exposed tonew pests and diseases or changes in the profile ofextreme events, such as floods and droughts.

Climate Change
Projections for North
Sumatra and Aceh
Climate modeling suggests that the primary changes
to North Sumatra and Aceh’s climate for the next 30years will be:•

The average daily temperature will become
higher•

The mean annual amount of rainfall is notexpected to change significantly•

The wet season will likely become drier(particularly January and February)•The dry season will likely become wetter(particularly June, July and August)Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Options
for North Sumatra and AcehTo identify and understand the specific risks to the incomes of coffee farmers in northern Sumatra, CI conducted a vulnerability assessment.
The following table demonstrates the primary risks identified for the next 30 years of farming and opportunities to manage these risks.

AREA OF PRODUCTION RISKRISK LEVEL

ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Drought/FireLow

Follow existing drought/fire management procedures

Storms/Flood

Medium - Increased risk of flooding

Shade trees for coffee berry protection
Vegetate boundaries and slopes

Changing Suitability

Medium - Risk of suitability at lower altitudes
decreased

Change coffee varieties (e.g. Tim-Tim to Bor Bor)
Create alternative livelihoods

Changing Seasonality

High - Risk of more rain in the ‘dry’ season

Combine coffee with other crops
Use drying sheds

High/Low Temperatures

Medium - Risk of higher maximum daily
temperatures

Shade trees to regulate temp
Change coffee varieties

Change in Pest/Diseases

High - Risk of new pests in higher altitudes.

Improve tree maintenance
Pest management (e.g. traps)
Change to pest/disease resistant coffee varieties

If farmers employ adaptation practices that allow them to maintainproduction in existing farms, they will be less likely to abandon thesefarms and clear forest in new areas that they believe are likely tobecome more suitable for coffee production in the future, such as
higher altitude locations.

CI created maps of both the likely changes in coffee suitability
and pest distribution associated with climate change in North
Sumatra and Aceh. These maps can be used to target training andsupport programs in communities that are likely to have the highest
vulnerability to climate change.
05/12
7/12

For more information contact:
Terry Hills, t.hills@conservation.org
Joanne Sonenshine, j.sonenshine@conservation.org
www.conservation.org
Photos: © CI/photo by M. Candra ArieF