Transboundary climate
impacts on Europe: Early
insights from CASCADES
Dr. Christopher Reyer (reyer@pik-potsdam.de) + CASCADES consortium
21st of January 2022 – IGES workshop on “Building Resilience to the Risk ofCompound and Cascading Disasters in the Context of Climate Change”

CASCADES objective and partners

Hildén et al. 2020, CASCADES Policy Brief #12

CASCADES Conceptual Framework

Carter et al. 2021 Global Environmental Change

3Europe’s connection with the world (trade, development)• Agriculture makes up 19% (monetary value) or 9%(mass-based) of total EU imports in 2018• Fossil fuels are most important imports but here focus
agriculture most sensitive to climate risk

West et al. 2021 Climate Risk Management• Most Overseas Development Aid (ODA)
goes to neighboring regions and oldcolonial ties
• Immigration from northern Africa/Sahel is
not large in absolute numbers but Europe
is primary destination and region is climate
sensitive4

Land area and population exposed to extreme events•

Based on ISIMIP data: 5GCMs, RCP2.6 & RCP6.0 to drive 8 hydrological models,
5 fire models, 3 crop models, 1 hurricane model

Lange et al. 2020 Earth’s Future5Land area and population exposed to extreme events•Based on ISIMIP data: 5GCMs, RCP2.6 & RCP6.0 to drive 8 hydrological models,5 fire models, 3 crop models, 1 hurricane model

Lange et al. 2020 Earth’s Future

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Drought in Argentina,
Paraguay, Brazil and its
cascading effects onEurope in a SSP3 world

West et al. 2021 Climate Risk Management

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Climate impacts on EU Foreign, Security & Development Policy

Detges & Foong (forthcoming)

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Climate impacts on EU Foreign, Security & Development Policy

Detges & Foong (forthcoming)

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Full picture ofcascading links for
Policy Simulation
with stakeholders

10Virtual conference center: New online simulation platform for stakeholder engagement

11Potential Policy Recommendations: Soy imports

Co-invest in climate
resilient soy production
and climate resilient
supply chain logistics
via ODA (e.g.
EuropeAid), climate
adaptation finance (e.g.
EU contributions to e.g.
Green Climate Fund)

Benzie, Harris et al. In prep

Cooperate inmultilateral forums(e.g. WTO) toreduce the volatility
in the soy market tofuture shocks

EU Common
Agricultural Policy /Farm to Fork
Strategy of EU
Green Deal 
lessen European
dependence onsoy imports

Incentivise or encourage
Europe-based privatecompanies to disclose(e.g. via national financial
reporting requirements, orinternational voluntary
initiatives like the Task
Force on Climate-related
Financial Disclosure) andmanage climate-related
supply chain risks
12Find out more aboutus!
Web: cascades.eu
Email: info@cascades.eu
Twitter: @CASCADES_EU
The project has been funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 821010

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Key videos and papers•

Short CASCADES Intro video (Conceptual Framework):
https://www.cascades.eu/multimedia/cascades-conceptual-framework-of-cascading-climate-impacts/ (youtube direct link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHXS3hzpMM0)•Long CASCADES Conceptual Framework video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK8O5hSWWZ0&t=1s•

Policy Simulation Introduction (2020)
https://www.cascades.eu/multimedia/strategic-simulation-trailer/•

Policy Simulation Trailer 2021 Workshop:
https://www.cascades.eu/multimedia/cascades-policy-simulation/ (youtube directlink: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTrOy6mEZWs)•

COP26 CASCADES participation (watch back video’s and find out more):
https://www.cascades.eu/cascades-at-cop26-2/•

Carter TR, M Benzie, E Campiglio, H Carlsen, S Fronzek, M Hildén, CPO Reyer, C West (2021) A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change.
Global Environmental Change 69: 102307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307•Hildén M, G Lahn, TR Carter, RJT Klein, IM Otto, B Pohl, CPO Reyer, F Tondel (2020) Cascading climate impacts: a new factor in European policy-making.
https://www.cascades.eu/?post_type=publication&p=114•Lange S, J Volkholz, T Geiger, F Zhao, I Vega del Valle, T Veldkamp, CPO Reyer, L Warszawski, V Huber, J Jägermeyr, J Schewe, DN Bresch, M Büchner, J Chang, P Ciais, MDury, K Emanuel, C Folberth, D Gerten, SN Gosling, N Hanasaki, AJ Henrot, T Hickler, Y Honda, A Ito, N Khabarov, W Liu, C Müller, K Nishina, S Ostberg, H Müller
Schmied, SI Seneviratne, T Stacke, J Steinkamp, W Thiery, Y Wada, H Yang, M Yoshikawa, C Yue, K Frieler (2020) Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events
Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth’s Future https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616•West CD, E Stokeld, E Campiglio, S Croft, A Detges, A Duranovic, A von Jagow, Ł Jarząbek, C König, H Knaepen, P Magnuszewski, I Monasterolo, CPO Reyer (2021)
Europe's cross-border trade, human security and financial connections: A climate risk perspective. Climate Risk Management 34:100382.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100382

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