野田政権の経済政策とアジア地域経済統合

Randall Jones
OECD 経済局日本・韓国課長
早稲田大学

OECDレクチャーシリーズ
2011年10月7日

Explaining differences in income in 2009

1. Based on 2009 purchasing power parities (PPPs) rates.
Source: OECD (2011), OECD Going for Growth, 2011.

2

Gross debt1 in selected OECD countries2

1. OECD estimates for 2009-10 for Japan and 2010 for the other countries. OECD projections for 2011-12.
2. The five countries with the highest gross debt ratios in the OECD area in 2000.
Source: OECD (2010), OECD Economic Outlook, Nº 88, OECD, Paris.

3

Net debt1 in selected OECD countries2

1. OECD estimates for 2009-10 for Japan and 2010 for the other countries. OECD projections for 2011-12.
2. The five countries with the highest gross debt ratios in the OECD area in 2000.
Source: OECD (2010), OECD Economic Outlook, Nº 88, OECD, Paris.

4

Population projections by age category

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Population Projection for Japan (December 2006 version).

5

Elderly dependency ratio¹

1. The over-65 population as a share of the working-age (15 to 64) population.
Source: OECD, Society at a Glance Database.

6

International comparison of relative poverty rates
In mid-2000s, with relative poverty defined as income less than 50% of median income thresholds¹1.

Poverty rates are defined as the share of individuals with equivalised disposable income less than 50% of the median for the entire population.
The income concept used is that of household disposable income adjusted for household size.
Source: OECD (2008), Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries, OECD, Paris.

7

Source: The Government of Japan (2010c), The New Growth Strategy: Blueprint for Revitalising Japan.

New Growth Strategy to boost Japan’s growth potential
Supply-side policies1. Create “leading graduate schools” to enhance international
competitiveness1. Science, technology and IT

2. Promote the use of ICT in the government and provide
broadband to all households by 2015

3. Increase R&D investment to at least 4% of GDP
4. Integrate childcare and kindergartens and develop quality
childcare

2. Employment and human resources

5. Create a “National Vocational Qualifications” system and a“Personal Support Service” for the poor
6. Establish a new system of volunteer activity and charitablegiving

3. Financial sector

7. Create an integrated exchange for securities, financing andcommodities

Source: The Government of Japan (2010), The New Growth Strategy: Blueprint for Revitalising Japan.

Source: The Government of Japan (2010c), The New Growth Strategy: Blueprint for Revitalising Japan.

New Growth Strategy to boost Japan’s growth potential
Demand-side policies
1. Green innovation

1. Introduce a feed-in tariff system to expand the renewable energymarket
2. Use the Future City Initiative to promote the use of eco-products
and services
3. Revitalise forestry and raise the self-sufficiency ratio to over 50%

2. Life innovation

4. Expand options for patients by quick provision of new drugs anddevices
5. Establish Japan’s position globally as a provider of high-quality
medical care
6. Make Japan a major player in exports of infrastructure systems

3. Asian economic integration

4. Tourism and local revitalisation

7. Cut the corporate tax rate and promote Japan as an Asian
industrial centre
8. Foster global talents and increase the number of talented foreign
personnel
9. Strengthen the competitiveness of domestic firms by making
Japanese standards global ones and increasing Japan’s role as acontent provider
10. Promote economic partnerships, particularly with Asiancountries
11. Create global strategic special zones and promote full “openskies”
12. Make Japan a tourism-oriented nation and attract 25 million
visitors annually
13. Double the size of the market for existing housing andremodeling of housing
14. Open public facilities to the private sector and promote projects
using private-sector partnerships

Source: The Government of Japan (2010), The New Growth Strategy: Blueprint for Revitalising Japan.

The share of imports in GDP is the lowest in the OECD area
2010

Source: OECD Analytical Database.

10The stock of inward direct investment is second-lowest in the OECD area
2007

Source: OECD (2010), Economic Globalisation Indicators 2010, OECD, Paris.

11

Share of foreign-controlled affiliates in turnover in manufacturing andservices sectors

Source: OECD (2010), Economic Globalisation Indicators 2010, OECD, Paris.

12

Share of foreign workers in the labour force in 2008 or latest

Source: OECD (2010), Economic Globalisation Indicators 2010, OECD, Paris.

13

FDI restrictions in Japan are high2010

Source: OECD (2010), OECD’s FDI Restrictiveness Index: 2010 Update.

14

Japan’s Economic Partnership Agreements
Country

StatusShare of exports in 2009 in per centShare of imports in 2009 in per centTotalAgriculture

TotalAgriculture

SingaporeTook effect in 2002

3.6

1.4

1.1

0.6

MexicoTook effect in 2005

1.2

0.1

0.5

1.2

Malaysia

Took effect in 2006

2.2

1.3

3.0

0.8

Chile

Took effect in 2007

0.2

0.1

1.0

5.5

ThailandTook effect in 2007

3.8

3.7

2.9

4.5

Indonesia

Took effect in 2008

1.6

1.7

4.0

6.0

BruneiTook effect in 2008

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.0

Philippines

Took effect in 2008

1.4

0.8

1.2

2.1

ASEAN1

Took effect in 2008

13.8

11.114.2

15.3

Switzerland

Took effect in 2009

1.1

0.5

1.1

0.6

VietnamTook effect in 2009

1.1

2.1

1.3

1.2

India

Took effect in 2011

1.1

0.8

0.7

1.4

17.4

12.6

17.5

24.0

Sub-total
Peru

Signed in 2011

0.1

0.1

0.3

1.5

Australia

Negotiations are underway

2.1

0.7

6.3

12.4

19.6

13.4

24.1

37.9

Total

1. Includes Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, in addition to the other ASEAN countries shown individually.
Source: OECD International Merchandise Trade Statistics Database.

15International comparison of Producer Support Estimate for agriculture
Per cent of gross farm receipts

1. For Mexico, 1986-88 is replaced by 1991-93.
2. Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Sweden are included in the OECD total for both time periods and in the EU for
2007-09. The OECD total does not include the non-OECD EU member states.
3. EU12 for 1986-88 and EU27 for 2007-09.
Source: OECD (2010), Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries 2010: At a Glance.

16

Korea's FTA strategy
Country

StatusShare of exports in 2009 in per centShare of imports in 2009 in per cent

Total

Agriculture

TotalAgriculture

Chile

Took effect in 2004

0.60.2

1.04.3SingaporeTook effect in 2006

3.70.8

2.4

0.3

EFTA

Took effect in 2007

0.2

0.0

0.50.1ASEAN

Took effect for trade in goods in 2007

11.3

12.9

10.5

12.6

United States

Negotiations were completed in 2007

10.4

7.9

9.0

19.0

India

Took effect in 2010

2.2

2.2

1.3

1.8

EU

Took effect in 2011

12.8

5.4

10.0

6.2

Peru

Took effect in 2011

0.2

0.1

0.3

2.1

CanadaNegotiations are underway

37.7
0.9

28.7
0.9

32.6
1.1

46.1
3.0

MexicoNegotiations are underway

2.0

0.3

0.3

0.8

GCC1

Negotiations are underway

0.5

0.4

2.6

0.1

New Zealand

Negotiations are underway

0.2

1.1

0.3

1.9

Australia

Negotiations are underway

1.4

1.5

4.6

14.3

Columbia

Negotiations are underway

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

TurkeyNegotiations are underway

0.7

0.7

0.1

0.2

MERCOSUR

Joint government study completed in 2007

1.6

0.9

1.4

8.9

IsraelJoint government study completed in 2010

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

China

Joint study at government level is underway

23.9

22.2

16.8

9.1Russia

Joint study at private level is underway

1.2

2.8

1.8

2.4

Vietnam

Joint study at private level is underway

2.0

3.4

0.7

1.6

Malaysia

Joint study at private level is underway

1.2

1.5

2.3

0.9

Indonesia

Joint study at private level is underway

1.7

2.6

2.9

6.4

SACU1

Joint study at private level is agreed

0.3

0.2

0.4

1.3

Mongolia

Joint study at private level is agreed

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

70.9

60.4

62.3

88.5

Sub-total

Total

1. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Southern African Customs Union (SACU)
includes Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland.
Source: OECD International Merchandise Trade Statistics Database; MOFAT, Korea International Trade Association and Korea Agricultural Trade Information.

17

CONCLUSION
1. Japan has fallen in the income rankings toward the middle of the OECD,
reflecting a large gap in labour productivity.
2. Japan faces a number of difficult challenges, such as the high and risinglevel of public debt, rapid population ageing and rising income inequality.
3. Structural reforms, including measures to promote deeper integration in
the East Asian region, are needed to address these problems and improveliving standards.
4. At present, Japan is relatively isolated, with low levels of imports, inflows
of foreign direct investment and foreign workers.
5. Achieving the New Growth Strategy’s goal of doubling the inflow ofpeople, goods and capital by 2020 by reducing barriers to trade andrestrictions on foreign investment and the movement of people into Japanis a top priority.
6. Increased openness can be accomplished, in part, by establishing
Economic Partnership Agreements with major trading partners andparticipating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
7. Such agreements should be comprehensive and include agriculture.