Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division, South Asia Department 4
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the ProjectCountry：The People’s Republic of Bangladesh (Bangladesh)
Project：Southern Chattogram Regional Development Project
Loan Agreement：June 28, 2022
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Rural Development Sector and the Priority of theProject in Bangladesh
Bangladesh has continued stable growth averaging around 6.0% per annum since2000 (International Monetary Fund, 2020), and the poverty rate improved from 48.9%
in 2000 to 24.3% in 2016 (World Bank, 2020). However, the poverty rate in rural areas,including Cox's Bazar district, remains higher at 26.4% (Bangladesh Bureau ofStatistics, 2016), compared to the poverty rate of 18.9% in urban areas with steadyeconomic growth. Rural development is a key policy issue for the Government ofBangladesh.
Currently, in southern Chattogram region including Cox’s Bazar district,comprehensive development including key infrastructure projects such as theMatarbari Port Development Project (Japanese ODA loan, approved in 2018 and2019) is going on under the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B) concept,
and Cox's Bazar district is expected to become a driving force for the growth ofBangladesh. It is predicted that the number of people moving into Cox's Bazar district
and the surrounding areas will be approximately 40,000 people by 2026 andapproximately 110,000 people by 2041, due to the above comprehensive regionaldevelopment (JICA, 2019). In addition, Cox’s Bazar district which shares its borders
with Myanmar has experienced a population increase due to the influx ofapproximately 900,000 displaced persons from Rakhine State, Myanmar since August
2017 (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 2021). Due to the above
population increase, the problems of local resources such as lack of drinking water,
deforestation and reduced agricultural land, reduction income opportunities and lower
wages for local residents are becoming apparent (United Nations, 2019). There arestrong concerns that further population increase among other things in the region will
exacerbate problems caused by the lack of public infrastructure, such as deterioratingroad conditions as well as traffic congestion due to an increase of traffic volume, anddegenerating social services for residents owing to water treatment/ supply shortages
and waste increment, and so forth.
In Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2021-2041 (Ministry of Planning, Bangladesh,2020) which determines the long-term development agenda to be achieved by 2041,

the Government of Bangladesh aims to become an upper higher middle-income
country by 2031, and a developed country with poverty eradication achieved by 2041,
through inclusive economic growth based on four institutional pillars of governance,
democracy, decentralization and capacity development. In addition, Eighth Five Year
Plan (FY2021-FY2025) also emphasizes strategies on urban development andstrengthening local government functions, from a perspective of the importance ofrural development for the country's transformation into an upper middle-income
country by 2031.
The Southern Chattogram Regional Development Project (hereinafter referred to as
the “the Project”) aims to improve the living standard and the quality of life of local
residents in the areas affected by population increase due to the comprehensive
development in southern Chattogram region and the influx of displaced persons fromRakhine State, Myanmar by developing public infrastructure, thereby contributing tothe economic development and redress of disparities. The Project is positioned as ahigh priority project in Bangladesh's development policy.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Urban Development Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for the People's Republic ofBangladesh (February 2018) has set forth the priority area of “accelerating economic
growth for the benefit of all citizens toward a middle-income country”, in which it isdescribed that the acceleration of sustainable economic growth will be supported
through cooperation based on the BIG-B concept, while giving due consideration tothe poor. In Addition, in another priority area of “overcoming social vulnerabilities”, it isdescribed that the support to improve living conditions and livelihoods in rural areas
will be provided. Furthermore, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for the People's
Republic of Bangladesh (March 2019) lists urban development, rural development
and addressing host communities affected by the influx of displaced persons from
Rakhine State, Myanmar, as key development issues, and the Project is consistent
with these policies and analyses. Additionally, since it will help to improve the living
standard and enhance the quality of life in the southern Chattogram region bydevelopment of public infrastructure, the Project will also contribute to theachievement of SDG Goals 1 (poverty eradication), 10 (reducing inequality) and 11(urban development).
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The United Nations Development Programme is currently providing support to local
governments for formulating comprehensive, effective and transparent plan andimproving their governance capacities for public service delivery. The World Bank
(WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are implementing projects on urban
capacity building and infrastructure development. In addition, a number of NGOs anddonors including the United Nations, WB and ADB, are providing assistance such as
infrastructure development to displaced persons from Myanmar and hostcommunities.
３．Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to improve the living standard and the quality of life of
local residents in the southern Chattogram region by developing public infrastructure,
thereby contributing to the economic development and redress of disparities.
(2) Project Site/Target Area3 Paurashavas (Chakaria, Mohenshkhaki, Teknaf) and 4 Upazilas (Chakaria,Mohenshkhali, Teknaf, Ukhiya) in Cox’s Bazar district(3) Project Component(s)The Project is a sector loan consisting of the civil engineering works andequipment/materials procurement related to infrastructure development described initem 1) below (hereinafter referred to as “subprojects”) and consulting services
described in item 2).
For selecting the target areas, municipalities with particularly higher needs for
public infrastructure development, which are affected by population increase
associated with the development of the hinterland of Moheshkhali-Matarbari
Integrated Infrastructure Development Initiative and the influx of displaced persons
from Rakhine State, Myanmar, were selected.
Subprojects will be selected based on selection criteria such as consistency with thedevelopment plans of each municipality, project objectives, urgency and necessity,
project effectiveness and feasibility and implemented in three batches. Although theselection criteria for subprojects and the list of candidate subprojects based on theselection criteria have already been agreed during JICA’s appraisal, the subprojects
will be finalized during the project implementation period after the approval by theProject Implementation Committee, which will be set up at the headquarters of Local
Government Engineering Department, Local Government Division, Ministry of Local
Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives (LGED).
1） Civil engineering works and equipment/materials procurement (roads andbridges, drainage and flood protection facilities, water supply facilities, waste
management facilities, other public facilities, etc.)
2） Consulting services (assistance for detail design, tender, supervision ofinfrastructure development, environmental and social considerations, projectmanagement, capacity development related to local government(administrations, infrastructure development and maintenance), etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
55,953 million Yen (Loan Amount：32,462 million Yen)
(5) Schedule
June 2022 (Loan Agreement) - October 2028 (77 months in total)
Project Completion was defined as all subprojects are placed in service (April2028).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: LGED
4) Operation and Maintenance System: LGED and all target municipalities(7) Cooperation and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: In Cox's Bazar district, JICA is supporting the technicalcooperation, “Upazila Integrated Capacity Development Project” (FY 2017-2022) forthe capacity development of upazilas to formulate and implement development plans,
and the technical cooperation, “the Project for Capacity Enhancement on Formulation
and Implementation of Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan” (FY 2020-2024) for
capacity development of staff of relevant institutions and formulating andimplementing local disaster management plans. Some of the personnel whose
capacities have been enhanced through these technical cooperation projects will beinvolved in the implementation of the Project. In addition, JICA provided loans for“Upazila Governance Development Project” (approved in 2015, UGDP) to support
capacity development and infrastructure development for improving the capacities of500 upazilas in Bangladesh. UGDP also targets Ukhia and Teknaf upazila in Cox'sBazar district, and some of the personnel whose capacities have been improved
under the UGDP will be involved in the implementation of the Project. It has been
confirmed that there is no duplication in infrastructure development with thesubproject under the Project. “Urban Development and City Governance Project”(approved in FY 2020, UDCG) funded by JICA, is supporting the strengthening ofadministrative and financial capacity of local governments for urban development andinfrastructure development in the southern Chattogram region. UDCG is targeting fourcities, including Cox's Bazar paurashava, which is a larger city than the paurashavatargeted in the Project. The Project aims to provide support for smaller paurashavas
and upazilas compared to the UDCG.
2) Other Donors’ Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Cross-Sectoral Issues/Gender Category
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category : B② Reason for Categorization: The Project is not considered to be a large-scale
infrastructure development project, nor located in a sensitive area, and hasnone of the sensitive characteristics under the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (dated in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Executing Agency have to obtain approval of the Initial
Environmental Examination (IEE)/ the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)by the Government of Bangladesh and an Environmental Clearance Certificate

for the subprojects in accordance with Bangladesh's Environmental ProtectionRegulations. The IEE for the subprojects under the first batch has already been
prepared in August 2021 and will be refined during the detailed design phaseand approved before the start of construction of each subproject.
Environmental and Social Management Framework has already been preparedin October 2021 for the subprojects under the second and third batches, andIEE/EIAs for such subprojects will be prepared in line with this Environmentaland Social Management Framework before the implementation and will beapproved by the start of construction works.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: Mitigation measures for the subprojects under the firstbatch have been developed in accordance with Environmental Management
Plan of the IEE. Mitigation measures for the subprojects under the second andthird batches will be developed in Environmental Management Plan inaccordance with the Environmental and Social Management Framework.
Under the IEE and the Environmental and Social Management Framework,measures during construction will be taken for air pollution, water pollution,
noise and vibration, waste and other impacts, such as water spraying, regularinspections of construction equipment, and appropriate treatment of pollutants
and wastewater discharged. Measures during operation will also be taken forregular inspections, monitoring and appropriate treatment of waste, etc.
against the effects of wastewater from drainage facilities, soil pollution andodors from waste management facilities, etc.
⑤ Natural Environment: The sites of subprojects under the first batch is not
located in or around national parks or other vulnerable areas. It has also been
agreed with LGED that subprojects under the second and third batches will not
be selected if the project site is located in or around national parks and othervulnerable areas.
⑥ Social Environment: For subprojects under the first batch that requiresocio-environmental countermeasures, Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan
was prepared in August 2021 in line with the national procedures in
Bangladesh and JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(dated in April 2010), and is scheduled for approval around July 2022. For
implementing the subprojects under the first batch, it is envisaged that about
3.3 ha of land acquisition, but no involuntary resettlement will happen and nospecific objections to the subprojects have been raised by the project affected
persons. In the implementation phase of the second and third batches,
Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plans will be prepared by the Executing
Agency for each batch in accordance with the Resettlement Policy Framework,
which was prepared in October 2021 based on the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (dated in April 2010), and landacquisition and resettlement will be carried out accordingly.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: Under the Project, monitoring of air quality, water quality, soil
contamination and waste during construction will be carried out by thecontractor under the responsibility and supervision of the Project Management
Unit to be established at the LGED headquarters, and under the local
government when the subprojects are in service. Resettlement and landacquisition will be monitored by the local government unit in charge, and for
upazilas, the LGED's District Engineer's Office will also be responsible formonitoring. It has been agreed with LGED that no Category A projects will beincluded in the subprojects.
2) Cross-Cutting Issues
The subprojects in drainage sector are intended to take flood protection
measures in areas prone to flooding due to the effects of climate change.
Additionally construction of a school and clinic with disaster prevention facilities in
the other public facilities subprojects will contribute to climate change adaptation by
providing cyclone shelter function, thus contributing to climate change adaptation.
The project will also contribute to improving the convenience and quality of life oflocal people by supporting the development of public infrastructure in hostcommunities, where the influx of displaced persons from Myanmar has caused ashortage of drinking water, deforestation, a decrease in farmland and other localresources, as well as reduced income opportunities and wages for local people.
Furthermore, with regard to infection prevention measures for contractors in theProject, infection prevention measures such as the wearing of masks by workers
etc. at construction sites and thorough disinfection and hand washing are planned
to be implemented with reference to local laws and WHO guidance on measuresagainst novel coronavirus infection, while paying attention to the local infection
situation. In addition, barrier-free measures (e.g. installation of ramps andhandrails) in accordance with Bangladesh national law will be considered during
the detailed design phase of the Project.
3) Gender Category: [Gender Project] GI (S) (Gender Activities Integration Project)
Activity Component(s)/Reason for Categorization:
The Project is planned to implement some initiatives from a gender perspective,
for example; for the construction works implemented under the project, wages ofworkers will be set at the same level for men and women; quotas for female
employment will be set; public facilities to be developed under the Project will be
designed to reflect gender-wise needs (e.g. separate toilets and rest areas for men
and women, nursing spaces, better lighting to ensure safety); women will also be
actively hired for the Project Management Unit, to be established in Executing
Agency.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Target(2029)
SectorIndicators

Baseline【Expected value 2years after projectcompletion】

Road andBridges

Annual Average daily traffic volume―

Increasing―

Decreasing―

Decreasing

Number of affected households―

Decreasing

Frequency of flood and inundation (time/year)―

Decreasing―

Increasing―

Increasing―

Increasing―

Increasing―

Increasing<Landfill site>Sanitary landfilling rate (%)―

Increasing<Market>Number of stores (store)―

Increasing<Market>Trade amount (BDT/year)―

Increasing<Clinic>Number of outpatient (person/year)―

Increasing―

Decreasing―

Increasing―

Increasing―

Increasing―

Increasing(pcu1/day)Traveling Time (minutes/10km)

Drainage and Area affected by flood and inundation(m2)FloodProtection

Water Supply Water supply quantity (m3/day)
Facilities

Coverage ratio (%)<Transfer station>Collection quantity

Waste
ManagementFacilities(ton/year)<Transfer station>Waste collection rate (%)<Landfill site>Sanitary landfill quantity(ton/year)<Clinic>Time to clinic by residents in targetedarea (minutes)
Other Public <School>Number of pupils (disaggregated byfacilities

gender) (person/year)<School>Gross enrollment ratio (%)<Cyclone shelter>Capacity of the facilities
per total population in the target area (%)<Training center/Park>Average Number ofusers (person/day)(2) Qualitative Effects
Enhancement the quality of life of the local people in the southern Chattogram1

passenger car unit: Traffic volume is determined by the number of vehicles passing through an observation point
in a given unit of time, but as large vehicles in particular have long vehicle lengths and influence traffic conditions,traffic volume (pcu) which expresses the number of large vehicles in terms of the number of passenger cars, isused as an indicator.

region, economic development and redress of disparities.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
The IRR is not calculated because the subprojects cannot be identified in advance.
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Conditions: N/A
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
According to the ex-post evaluation of "Rural Areas Infrastructure Development
Project (III)" (evaluated in 2007), an ODA Loan Project for Indonesia, it was learned
that it is important for small-scale, decentralized projects to create a systematicmanagement system and to operate it properly, especially in terms of clarifying thehierarchical relationship of responsibility from the field level to central level.
In light of these lessons above, the Project is intended to clarify the roles andresponsibilities of relevant agencies at each stage (e.g. high-level development plansin target cities, budget approval/execution of individual projects, and project
implementation supervision). And a Project Management Unit in the LGED
headquarters to oversee project implementation and project implementation
units/offices in each target municipality will be established. The ex-post evaluation
also indicated that coordination between the agencies concerned is important. Basedon the lessons learnt, a Project Implementation Committee with the participation of all
relevant agencies will be established within the LGED headquarters as a higher-level
organization of the Project Management Unit to discuss cross-sectoral matters for
subprojects and to manage and monitor the progress of the overall project.
7. Evaluation Results
The project is consistent with the development issues and development policies ofBangladesh, as well as the cooperation policies and analyses of the Government ofJapan and JICA, improving the living standard and enhance the quality of life in thesouthern Chattogram region by development of public infrastructure, thereby
contributing to the achievement of SDG Goals 1 (poverty eradication), 10 (reducinginequality) and 11 (urban development). Therefore, the necessity of providing
assistance for implementation of this project is high.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used: As indicated in sections 4. (1) to (2).
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule: Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the projectcompletion
END