Achieving an 80% Carbon Free Electricity System in
China by 2035

2035 Report | www.2035report.com

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105180

Key Conclusions
China could reach 80% carbon-free electricity
by 2035 at 6% lower cost

Faster transition to a clean power system canreduce additional emission and health impacts
by 50+%
Job gains in clean energy sectors more than

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China’s power grids can be reliably operated
with a high level of non-fossil generation evenduring summer and winter peaks

Current Policy CaseEnergy❖ Coal generation
peaks in 2030
❖ But still ~50% ofelectricity by 2030
❖ 1,200 GW wind andsolar target by2030

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CURRENTPOLICIES
PLACE CHINA
ON A PATHTOWARDCONTINUEDRELIANCE ON
COAL-FIRED
GENERATION

CapacityClean Energy Case
Energy❖ Coal can peak before2025❖ 80% clean electricity &3000 GW renewables
by 2035❖ 2,000 GW renewables& 66% clean by 2030

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OUR
ANALYSISSHOWS AN
80% CLEAN
ELECTRICITYSYSTEM IS
AFFORDABLE,FEASIBLE,AND
RELIABLE IN
2035.

Capacity

DEPENDABLE GRID WITHOUT NEW COAL CAPACITY - 2035
2035 Peak Net Load Week in Summer– Clean Energy Case

By 2035, max coal dispatch is 613.2 GW, 33.8% of peak load, and 58.5% of total coal capacity
Percentage renewable energy for peak net load week is 37% (percentage of renewable
contribution of the overall generation)

2035 Report | www.2035report.com••

ELECTRICITY COSTS: AVERAGE COST OF GENERATION ~6%
LOWER UNDER CLEAN ENERGY SCENARIO BY 2035

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All generation costs (including fixedcost of existing + new capacity andfuel costs) and new transmission
cost is included. Distribution costand existing transmission cost arenot included.

CLEAN ENERGY CASE IMPLIES RAPID BUT FEASIBLE
WIND & SOLAR DEPLOYMENTS
Current Policy Case

Clean Energy Case

In 2020, China
deployed 120 GWof wind & solar

168
134

68801242035 Report | www.2035report.com

215

INDIVIDUAL COAL PLANTS OPERATE AT VERY DIFFERENTCAPACITY FACTORS: HALF ARE RUNNING <10% BY 2035
Capacity Factor of Individual Coal Plants

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What about the days with historically low RE Generation ?
(Summer)
Highest net load week
across 35 weather years

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RE generation drops by 12% (162 GW) and as a result, the net load increases by 162 GW.
Even if 266 GW of coal capacity is retired and historically low RE generation, the grid still remains dependable.
Existing coal and gas capacity fills this gap.
(max coal + gas generation = 732 GW against 690 GW in the base year).

TRANSITION TO 80% CLEAN GRID RESULTS IN NET INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT,BUT REDUCES JOBS IN COAL MINING SECTOR

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AN 80% CLEAN GRID ENSURES CHINA CAN PEAK EMISSIONS BEFORE
2030, WITH MASSIVE CLIMATE AND PUBLIC HEALTH BENEFITS

China’s Electricity Sector Emissions

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China RE Policy Updates

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NEA raised 2023 solar & wind target to 160
GW, likely to achieve its 2030 goal of 1200 GW
solar/wind, around 2025
NEA also release Mid-to Long-term
Development Plan for PHS: ~421 GW by 2035
By 2025, 80% of incremental demand to be metby clean energy
Aim for a unified national electricity market by2025, potentially accelerating RE integrationand squeezing out coal generation
Yet, another rush to coal power (88 GW
approved so far in 2022) to address energy

2035 Report | www.2035report.com

QUESTIONS/DISCUSSION
Jiang Linj_lin@lbl.gov

Photo credit: EPA-EFE, South China Morning Post, 4 March 2021