Scoping study onCompound, Cascading and Systemic Riskin the Asia-PacificRajib Shaw
Professor, Keio University
Co-Chair, AP-STAG
Co-Founder, RIKA
www.rajibshaw.org

Objectives andMethodology

Objectives
1. To analyze and learn from the good practices
2. To understand the gaps and key challenges
3. To develop a basic framework for enhancing
risk governance

Scoping study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/
Risk in the Asia-Pacific (2022)

2Case study analysis• Case studies covering 16 countries from the Asia-PacificRegion• Total 40 nos. of case studies submitted• 22 nos. à Cascading and Compound Risk
• 10 nos. à Systemic Risk
• 08 nos. à Cascading and Compound + Systemic Risk
• Key hazards covered• Cyclone induced floods/ landslides• Drought• Forest fireFig 5. Framework for analysis of risk (Part 1)• Locust attack during COVID-19• Rainfall induced floods/ landslides during COVID-19,
and so on

China
12 Japan
3 NepalPakistan
2India15
1
Sri Lanka

Thailand
1 Vietnam
4 Philippines
12 Malaysia
1Singapore

Indonesia
31 Australia

1Vanuatu

1Fiji

1
New Zealand

Map showing location of case studies

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Definitions
Key definition
Systemic risk is defined as “Endogenous to, or embedded in, a system that is not itself considered to be a •risk and is therefore not generally tracked or managed, but which is understood through systems analysis •to have a latent or cumulative risk potential to negatively impact overall system performance when some •characteristics of the system change.” – UNDRR in GAR 2019 report•••“Cascading disasters are extreme events in which cascading effects increase in progression over time and •generate unexpected secondary events of strong impact. These tend to be as serious as the original event, •and contribute significantly to the overall duration of the disaster’s effects. These subsequent andunanticipated crisis can be exacerbated by the failure of physical structures and social functions that•
depend on them. In cascading disasters one or more secondary events can be identified and distinguishedfrom the original source of disaster.” – Pescaroli and Alexander, 2015
Compound risk is defined as “Two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or successively, •combinations of extreme events with underlying conditions that amplify the impact of the events, or •combinations of events that are not themselves extremes but lead to an extreme event or impact whencombined.” – IPCC in SREX 2012 report•

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

Key characteristic
ComplexTransboundary and global
Random and unexpected
Non-linear with tipping points
Unnoticed prior to disasters
Failure of a system
Chain of events
Standalone impacts of eachevent
Multisector vulnerability
Simultaneous or successive
Combination of multiple events
leading to extreme impacts
Events are independent of eachother4

Cascading
CompoundH, H1, H2, H3 = hazard events;
V & E = vulnerability and exposure;
CI, C2, C3 = consequences or effects;
S1, …, S5= systems; andSt1, ..., St4= stressors.

Systemic
Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

5Current knowledge base: Compound risk/ disaster(2000 to 2021)

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Current knowledge base: Cascading risk/ disaster(2000 to 2021)

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Current knowledge base: Systemic risk/ disaster(2000 to 2021)

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Framework for case study analysis

Framework for analysis of risk (Part 1)

Framework for analysis of Risk Management(Part 2)
Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Key findings fromcase study analysis (contd.)

19%
33%

PhysicalEnvironmental

8%

Political
Economic
Social13%
27%Type of underlying vulnerabilities

Relationship between types of triggering and triggered
hazards
Systems impacted
Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Key findings from case study analysis (contd.)
Key lessons learnt

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

11Principles for
management of risks

Six basic principles for management ofsystemic, cascading and compound risks

Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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Framework forstrengthening
risk governance

Framework for strengthening risk governance
Scoping Study on Systemic Risk, Cascading and Compound Disaster/ Riskin the Asia-Pacific (2021)

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