䝣䝆䝍ᢏ⾡◊✲ሗ࿌
➨58ྕ 2022ᖺ

シナリオ分析と気候変動経営への展開
ᘅ ⏣

ಟ *1

಴ ᶫ ᑦ Ꮚ *1

要概⬺Ⅳ⣲䚸㜵⅏䛺䛹Ẽೃኚື䛻㛵䜟䜛஦ᴗ䝙䞊䝈䜈䛾ᑐᛂ䛜䚸♫ෆ䛷䜒ጞ䜎䛳䛯䜒䛾䛾䚸⿬௜䛡䛸䛺䜛ศᯒ䜔඲యⓗ䛺㛗ᮇᡓ␎䛜↓䛔䜎䜎ᒎ㛤䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸⤒Ⴀⓗᠱᛕ䛜䛒䛳䛯䚹䛭䛣䛷䚸䛂TCFD䠄Ẽೃ㛵㐃㈈ົ᝟ሗ㛤♧䝍䝇䜽䝣䜷䞊䝇䠅ᥦゝ䜈䛾ᑐᛂ䛃䛸䛂Ẽೃኚືୗ䛷䛾஦ᴗ⥅⥆䚸౯್ᥦ౪䜢ᢸಖ䛩䜛⮬♫䛾㔜せㄢ㢟䜢ᢳฟ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛃䜢┠ⓗ䛻䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䜢❧䛱ୖ䛢䛯䚹ᙜ♫䛿㠀ୖሙ䛷䛒䜛䛜䜖䛘䚸TCFDᥦゝ䜢㋃䜎䛘䛯⤒Ⴀᡓ␎䛾ぢ┤䛧䜔᝟ሗ㛤♧䛾㔜せᛶ䛾⌮ゎ䚸㛵ᚰ䛿୍㒊䛾㛵ಀ⪅䛻㝈䜙䜜䛶䛚䜚䚸⤒Ⴀᒙ䜢➹㢌䛻㛵㐃㒊⨫䛾ᕳ䛝㎸䜏䛜ㄢ㢟䛷䛒䛳䛯䚹䛭䛣䛷஦ᴗᶵ఍䛻╔┠䛧䚸᪂䛯䛺஦ᴗศ㔝䛸䛺䜛㔜せㄢ㢟䚸᪤Ꮡᢏ⾡䜔Ⴀᴗ䝉䜾䝯䞁䝖䛸䛾⣣䛵䛡䜢ᥦ♧䛩䜛䛣䛸䛷䚸Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䜢⮬♫䛾㛗ᮇⓗㄢ㢟䛸䛧䛶఩⨨௜䛡䜛䜰䝥䝻䞊䝏䜢ྲྀ䛳䛯䚹䛭䛾⤖ᯝ䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䜢㋃䜎䛘䛯㔜せㄢ㢟䛿2022ᖺᗘ䛛䜙䛾᪂䛯䛺⤒Ⴀィ⏬䚸㒊㛛㛗ᮇᡓ␎䚸㒊㛛ィ⏬䛻཯ᫎ䛥䜜䚸᪤Ꮡ䛾άື䜢ྵ䜑య⣔ⓗ䛺ᒎ㛤䡡㐠⏝䛻⮳䛳䛯䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛾ᡂᯝ䛸䝥䝻䝉䝇䜢⤂௓䛩䜛䚹Integration of Scenario Analysis into Climate Change Management
Abstract
As business needs related to climate change, such as decarbonization and disaster prevention, are increasing, wehave begun to respond to them without establishing a base analysis or a long-term strategy, leading to managerial
concerns. In 2020, we launched a cross-departmental internal project with the aim of (1) responding to TCFD
recommendations and (2) identifying the company's materiality to ensure business continuity and continual value
delivery under climate change. Being an unlisted company, the biggest challenge we faced was a lack of interest by
top management and relevant departments in climate-related strategy assessment and disclosure recommended by
the TCFD. We took an approach of implementing climate change management as a long-term issue by exploringbusiness opportunities and presenting materiality linked with new business fields, existing technologies, and salessegments. Scenario analysis-based materiality has now been integrated into 2022 new management and divisional
plans, which has led to implementation and operation under the management system along with existing activities.

キーワード䠖䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䚸஦ᴗ䜲䞁䝟䜽䝖䚸*1 Ᏻ඲䞉ရ㉁䞉⎔ቃᮏ㒊Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䚸᝟ሗ㛤♧−79−䝣䝆䝍ᢏ⾡◊✲ሗ࿌ ➨58ྕ

§１． はじめに -シナリオ分析の背景 ᨻᗓ䛾䜹䞊䝪䞁䝙䝳䞊䝖䝷䝹ᐉゝᚋ䚸䝁䞊䝫䝺䞊䝖䜺䝞䝘䞁䝇䝁䞊䝗䛾ᨵゞ䜒ᚋᢲ䛧䛸䛺䜚䚸TCFD ᥦゝ䛻ἢ䛳䛯᝟ሗ㛤♧䛜ຍ㏿䛧䛯䚹ᙜ♫䛷䜒䛣䛣ᩘᖺ䚸㢳ᐈ䛺䛹እ㒊䛛䜙䚸Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾ㄪᰝᑐᛂ䛜ᛴቑ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹䛣䛾䜘䛖䛺㠀㈈ົ᝟ሗ㛤 ♧䜢䜑䛠䜛♫఍ⓗせㄳ䛿䚸ᙜ♫䛾䜘䛖䛺㠀ୖሙ௻ᴗ䛻䜒ᢲ䛧ᐤ䛫䛶䛔䜛䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖Ⓨ᱌ᙜึ䛾 2019 ᖺ᫬Ⅼ䛿ᅗ䠍 䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖⤌⧊ᅗ䜹䞊䝪䞁䝙䝳䞊䝖䝷䝹ᐉゝ๓䛸䛔䛖䛣䛸䜒䛒䜚䚸♫ෆ䛷⬺Ⅳ⣲䜔㜵⅏䛺䛹ಶ䚻䛾ྲྀ⤌䜏䛿䛒䛳䛯䜒䛾䛾䚸TCFD ᥦゝ⤒Ⴀᒙ䛾ᣦ♧䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸䝪䝖䝮䜰䝑䝥䛷ጞ䜎䛳䛯䝥䝻䝆

䜢㋃䜎䛘䛯Ẽೃኚື䛾ᡓ␎ⓗᑐ⟇䜈䛾㛵ᚰ䛿ⷧ䛟䚸⤒䜵䜽䝖䛷䛒䛳䛯䛯䜑䚸ண⟬ⓗไ⣙䛛䜙䝁䞁䝃䝹䝍䞁䝖఍♫Ⴀᒙ䜔㛵㐃㒊⨫䛾ᕳ䛝㎸䜏䛜୍␒䛾ㄢ㢟䛷䛒䛳䛯䚹䛿ධ䜙䛪䚸⚄⏣እㄒ኱Ꮫᩍᤵ▼஭Ặ䛻䜰䝗䝞䜲䝄䞊䛸䛧䛭䛣䛷஦ᴗᶵ఍䛻╔┠䛧䚸ᙜ♫䛜ඃඛⓗ䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜉䛝㔜せㄢ㢟䜢᫂☜䛻䛧䛯ୖ䛷䚸᪂䛯䛺஦ᴗศ㔝䛸䛺䜛㔜䛶ཧຍ䛔䛯䛰䛝䚸2 ᖺ㛫䛷඲ 11 ᅇ䠄2020 ᖺᗘ 6 ᅇ䚸2021
ᖺᗘ 5 ᅇ䚸䛾䜉 75 ே᪥䠅䛾䝽䞊䜻䞁䜾䜾䝹䞊䝥䠄WG䠅䜢

せㄢ㢟䚸᪤Ꮡᢏ⾡䜔Ⴀᴗ䝉䜾䝯䞁䝖䛸䛾⣣䛵䛡䜢ᥦ♧䛩㛤ദ䛧䛯䚹WG 䛷䛿䚸Ẽೃኚື䛚䜘䜃Ẽೃኚືୗ䛷䛾䜛䚹䜎䛯Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䜢㛗ᮇⓗㄢ㢟䛸䛧䛶఩⨨௜䛡䜛䜰♫఍ኚ໬䛷஦ᴗάື䛻ᙳ㡪䜢䛚䜘䜌䛩ㄢ㢟䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸䝥䝻䞊䝏䜢ྲྀ䜛䛣䛸䛷䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛻ᇶ䛵䛔䛯⤒ Ⴀィ⮬♫䛾ᮍ᮶䜢⮬ศ䛯䛱䛷⪃䛘䜛Ꮫ䜃䛸ᐇ㊶䛾ሙ䜒ව䛽䚸⏬䞉ᡓ␎䞉┠ᶆ䛸䛭䛾ᒎ㛤䜢┠ᣦ䛩䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䝥䝻䝆䜵

TCFD 䛜♧䛩䝥䝻䝉䝇䛚䜘䜃せ௳䛻㐺ྜ䛩䜛⊂⮬䛾ᡭ䜽䝖䛾❧ୖ䛢䜢Ⓨ᱌䛧䛯䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛻ຍ䛘䚸䛭䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇㛤Ⓨ䜢ྵ䜐䛣䛸䛛䜙䚸⎔ቃᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ䜢⤫ᣓ䛩䜛♫ෆ⎔ቃᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍䛾㒊㛛ᶓ᩿䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛸䛧䛶 2 ᖺ㛫䛾άື䜢䝇䝍䞊䝖䛩䜛䛣䛸䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹ἲ䜢㛤Ⓨ䞉᳨ウ䛧䛺䛜䜙య⣔໬䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢ྵ䜑䛶సᴗ䜢㐍䜑䛯䚹
2.3 ベースシナリオの選定௒ ᚋ Ẽ ೃ ኚ ື 䛾㐍 ⾜ 䛻క 䛔䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ၥ 㢟 䛜㉳䛣䜚ᚓ䜛䛛䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸IPCC䠄Ẽ ೃኚື䛻㛵䛩䜛ᨻᗓ㛫䝟§２． シナリオ分析の手法とプロセス䝛䝹䠅䜔 IEA䠄ᅜ㝿䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊ᶵᵓ䠅䛺䛹䛾ሗ࿌᭩䜢ཧ⪃䛻䚸䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸䛸䛧䛶䚸䜎䛪 1.5℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䠄IPCC

2.1 目的䛂୰㛗ᮇⓗ䛺௻ᴗ౯್䛾ྥୖ䛃䛻ྥ䛡䛶䚸䛂Ẽೃኚື䜈䛾ᑐᛂ䛸⤒Ⴀ䛾⥅⥆ᛶ䜢୧❧䛩䜛ලయⓗ䛺஦ᴗ䜔ᢏ⾡䜢ᢳฟ䛧䚸୰㛗ᮇ┠ᶆ䜢⟇ᐃ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㔜せㄢ㢟䜢ᥦ᱌䛩䜛䛃䛣䛸䜢┠ⓗ䛸䛧䛯䚹䜎䛯䚸TCFDᥦゝ䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䛸せ௳䛻ἢ䛳䛯ᙧᘧ䛸䛧䛺䛜䜙䚸Ẽೃኚື䛻ຍ䛘䚸኱つᶍ ⅏ ᐖ 䚸ឤ ᰁ ⑕ 䚸♫ ఍䞉⤒ ῭ ᝟ ໃ 䛺䛹䚸஦ ᴗ ά ື 䛻ᙳ

䛂1.5℃≉ูሗ࿌᭩䛃䛚䜘䜃 IEA䛂World Energy Outlook䛃䡚⬺ Ⅳ⣲ ♫ ఍䛻ྥ 䛡ኚ 㠉 䛧䚸ᬮ ໬䜢ᢚไ 䛩䜛䝅䝘䝸䜸䠅䚸䜒䛖䜂䛸䛴䛿 4℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䠄IPCC䛂RCP8.5䛃䡚⤒῭Ⓨᒎ䜢ඃ ඛ䛧䚸ᬮ ໬䛻ṑ Ṇ 䜑䛜䛛䛛䜙䛺䛔䝅䝘䝸䜸䠅䛾ᑐ↷ⓗ䛺」ᩘ䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢㑅ᐃ䛧䛯䚹䛣䜜䛻ຍ䛘䚸ேཱྀືែ䛺䛹Ẽೃኚື௨እ䛾♫఍᝟ໃ䜢ྵ䜑䛶䚸㛵㐃䛩䜛බⓗண㡪䜢䛚䜘䜌䛩ᗈ⠊ᅖ䛺ኚ໬䜒཯ᫎ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛸䛧䛯䚹

䚸Ⓨ⾲䚸ᐉゝ䜒ᘬ⏝䛧䛯䚹

2℃ᮍ‶䝅䝘䝸䜸䠄IPCC䛂RCP2.6䛃䠅䜒 1.5℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛸䛾ẚ㍑䛻䛚䛔䛶ཧ↷䛧䛯䚹

2.2 プロジェクトチームとシナリオ分析手法の決定Ẽೃኚື䛾ᙳ㡪䛿ከᒱ䛻䜟䛯䜛䛣䛸䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛷䛿Ẽೃኚື䛜⮬♫஦ᴗ䛻䛚䜘䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䜢䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䚸㈈ົ䜲䞁䝟䜽䝖䛺䛹䛒䜙䜖䜛ഃ㠃䛛䜙᝿ᐃ䚸᳨ウ䛩䜛ᚲせ䜎䛯 4℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛻䛿ᑗ᮶䛜䛺䛔䜟䛡䛰䛜䚸Ẽೃኚື䛾⛬ ᗘ䛾ዴ ఱ䛻䛛䛛䜟䜙䛪䚸䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䝅䝘䝸䜸ୗ䛻䛚䛔䛶䜒⤌⧊䛾ᑐᛂ䛜ྍ⬟䛷䛒䜛䚸䛩䛺䜟䛱䝺䝆䝸䜶䞁䝇䛸䛭䛾ㄆ㆑䛾䛯䜑䛻ศᯒᑐ㇟䛸䛧䛯䚹䛜䛒䜛䛣䛸䛛䜙䚸䝯䞁䝞䞊ᵓᡂ䛿䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖ᡂຌ䛾㘽䛸䛺䜛䚹⤒Ⴀ௻⏬䚸㈈ົ䚸⟶⌮䚸Ⴀᴗ䚸タィ䚸ᘓ⠏䞉ᅵᮌ䚸ᢏ
⾡䞉㛤Ⓨ䚸⎔ቃ䛺䛹䛾㛵㐃㒊㛛䛛䜙㒊㛛ᶓ᩿䝯䞁䝞䞊䜢㞟 ⤖䛥䛫䚸䠎ᖺ┠䛿䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢཯ ᫎ 䛧䛯䝯䞁䝞䞊䛷෌ ᵓᡂ䛧䛯䚹

2.4 自社対応シナリオ設定と評価Ẽೃኚື䜋䛛䛻䜘䛳䛶⏕䛨䜛䝸䝇䜽䛿䚸⊛ᬬ䜔ឤᰁ⑕䛜䜒䛯䜙䛩೺ᗣᙳ㡪䜔⮬↛⅏ᐖ䛾⃭⏒໬䛺䛹䛾≀⌮ⓗ䝸䝇䜽䛸䚸Ẽೃኚື䜈䛾ᑐᛂ䜔⬺Ⅳ⣲໬䛻䛸䜒䛺䛖♫఍−80−䠉2䠉䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛸Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䜈䛾ᒎ㛤ᅗ䠎 䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇ไᗘ䞉ἲᚊ䛾ኚ໬䛺䛹䛾⛣⾜䝸䝇䜽䛻኱ู䛥䜜䜛䚹䛧䛶ᣲ䛢䜙䜜䛯䝅䝘䝸䜸䛂ឤᰁ⑕䚸DX䠄䝕䝆䝍䝹䝖䝷䞁䝇䝣䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢♫఍᝟ໃ䚸≀⌮ⓗ䝅䝘䝸䜸䚸⛣⾜䝅䜷䞊䝯䞊䝅䝵䞁䠅䚸኱つᶍ⅏ᐖ䚸㈈ᨻ◚⥢䚸᱁ᕪ♫఍䚸ே䝘䝸䜸䛾䠏䛴䛻ศ䛡䚸ᖺ⾲໬䛧䛯ୖ䛷䚸䛣䜜䜙䛛䜙᝿ᐃ䛥ཱྀῶᑡ䛺䛹䛃䛸䜒┦஫䛻㐃ື䛧䚸ᙳ㡪䛧ྜ䛳䛶䛚䜚䚸඲య䜜䜛䚸୺䛻⮬♫䜔ᘓタᴗ䛻ᙳ㡪䛩䜛䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢㏣ຍ䛧䚸䛸䛧䛶䛸䜙䛘䜛ᚲせ䛜䛒䜛䛅䛸䛔䛖䛣䛸䛷䛒䜛䚹䜎䛯 1 䛴䛾஦㇟䛻䛴䛔䛶䜒䚸1.5℃䛸 4℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛷䛿䚸䛴䛺䛢䛶䛔䛟సᴗ䜢⾜䛺䛳䛯䚹⮬♫ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾タᐃ䛿䚸䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸䛛䜙♫఍䚸ᙳ㡪䛜ฟ䜛䝍䜲䝭䞁䜾䜔ᗘྜ䛔䛜␗䛺䜚䚸䜘䛳䛶ᑐᛂ䛾䝺ᴗ⏺䚸⮬♫஦ᴗ䞉ᴗົ䜈䛾䛴䛺䛜䜚䞉㛵㐃ᛶ䜢⪃䛘䚸1 䛴䝧䝹ឤ䜒⮬䛪䛸㐪䛳䛶䛟䜛䚹౛䛘䜀䚸ᘓ≀䛾ἲつไ䛻䛴䛾䝔䞊䝬䛻䛴䛔䛶ศ㔝䜢㉸䛘䛯ᶓ୵䛷䛸䜙䛘䜛䚸䜎䛯Ẽ

䛔䛶䚸1.5℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛷䛿 ZEB䠄䝛䝑䝖䞉䝊䝻䞉䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䞉ೃኚື䛛䜙䛾ὴ⏕䝟䝍䞊䞁䜒⪃៖䛩䜛䛣䛸䛻␃ព䛧䛶᳨䝡䝹䠅䛾ᣑ኱䛿᝿ᐃ䛷䛝䜛䛜䚸ウ䛧䛯䚹䜎䛯䚸䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊ᵓ㐀䝅䝣䝖䚸䜲䞁䝣䝷䛺䛹≉䛻ᙳ䜸䛷䛿䚸䛹䛣䜎䛷᪂ᇶ‽䛾ඛㄞ䜏䜢䛧䛶ᘓ≀䛾㛗ᑑ࿨໬㡪䛾኱䛝䛔䝔䞊䝬䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸4℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛚䜘䜃 1.5℃䛻ᑐᛂ䛧䛯タィ䜢䛧䛶䛔䛡䜀䜘䛔䛛䛾ᣦ㔪䛜䛺䛔䚸䛸䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾᣺䜜ᖜ䜢⪃៖䛻ධ䜜䛯ඃඛ௜䛡䞉᮲௳௜䛡䜒ពぢ䛜ᣲ䛜䛳䛯䚹1.5℃䛸 4℃䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾᣺䜜ᖜ䜢ホ౯䛧⪃៖䛧䛯䚹䛯ୖ䛷䚸Ẽೃኚື䜢㋃䜎䛘䛯タィᣦ㔪䛾ඛㄞ䜏䛜ᚲせᬮ໬䛜㐍䜐 4℃䝅䝘䝸䛣䜜䜙䛾䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䚸䛭䛧䛶⮬♫஦ᴗ䛾㛵䜟䜚䜢≉ᐃ䛸䛺䛳䛶䛟䜛䚹ṇゎ䜢ᑟ䛝ฟ䛩䛾䛜┠ⓗ䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸♫఍ᵓ䛩䜛㝿䚸ᘓタᴗ≉᭷䛾⏘ᴗᵓ㐀䜔஦ᴗ⎔ቃ䜢㋃䜎䛘䚸㐀䛾ኚ໬䛾୰䛷䛒䜙䜖䜛ഃ㠃䛛䜙䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢⪃ᐹ䛧䚸ඃྛ䝯䞁䝞䞊䛜䛂⮬ศ஦䛸䛧䛶䛸䜙䛘䜛⮬♫䛾ᮍ᮶䛃䜢䝭䜽䝻ඛ㡰఩䜢䛴䛡䛶ᑐᛂ䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛜ồ䜑䜙䜜䜛䚹䠄ྛ⮬䛾ᴗົ䠅䛛䜙䝬䜽䝻䠄ᘓタᴗ⏺䚸♫఍඲య䠅䛾どⅬ䚸Ẽೃኚື䛻䜘䜛≀⌮ⓗ䝸䝇䜽䛷䛂ປാ䛃䜢䜻䞊䝽䞊䝗䛻䜎䛯䛭䛾㏫᪉ྥ䛛䜙䜒⪃ᐹ䛧䛯䚹䛭䜜䛮䜜᝿ᐃ䛧䛯䝅䝘䛧䛯౛ 䛻䛸䜛䛸䚸䛭䛣䛛䜙᝿ ᐃ 䛥䜜䜛ᙳ 㡪䛸䛧䛶䛂ປ ാ᮲䝸䜸䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿㆟ㄽ䜢⧞䜚㏉䛧䛺䛜䜙䚸ከゅⓗ䛛䛴」ྜ

௳䞉⎔ ቃ 䛾ᝏ ໬ 䛃䛂⅏ ᐖ ᚟ ᪧ 䛺䛹༴ 㝤 స ᴗ 䛾ቑ ຍ 䛃䛂⇕ⓗ䛺䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢⵳✚䛧䛶䛔䛳䛯䚹୪⾜䛧䛶䚸䛣䜜䜙䛾䝅䝘୰⑕䚸⚾⑓⅏ᐖ䛾ቑຍ䛃䛂ᢏ⾡ఏᢎ䛾Ḟⴠ䞉ຊ㔞పୗ➼䝸䜸䜢䜹䝔䝂䝸䞊ู 䛻ศ 㢮 䛧䚸ᖺ ⾲ 䛻ⴠ䛸䛧㎸ 䜐స ᴗ 䜢䛻䜘䜛ປാ⅏ᐖ䞉஦ᨾ䛾ቑຍ䛃䛺䛹䛜ᣲ䛢䜙䜜䛯䚹䜎䛯♫⾜䛳䛯䚹఍᝟ໃ䛻㛵㐃䛩䜛䝅䝘䝸䜸䛂ேཱྀῶᑡ䠄᪥ᮏ䠅䛻䜘䜛ປാ⮬♫ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾ពぢ஺᥮䚸䝸䝇䝖໬䛾㐣ຊேཱྀ䛾ῶᑡ䛃䛂㒔ᕷ䜶䝸䜰䛾⏕ά㈝䠄䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䝁䝇䝖䠅⛬䛷ぢ䛘䛶䛝䛯䛾䛿䚸䛄⮬♫ 䞉ᘓタᴗ⏺䞉♫ ఍඲ య䜈䛾䛾ቑຍ䛻䜘䜛ᆅ᪉䜈䛾ேཱྀὶฟ䛃䛂ἢᓊ䛾୙㐺ᆅ໬䛺䛹ᙳ㡪䛿䚸Ẽೃኚື㛵㐃䛾䜋䛛䚸ᑗ᮶ືྥ䜔♫఍ኚ໬䛸ᒃఫྍ⬟ᆅᇦ䛾ኚ໬䛃䛂ᅵᆅ฼⏝䛾ኚ໬䛃䛂䠄IT ௻ᴗ䛺

−81−
䠉3䠉䝣䝆䝍ᢏ⾡◊✲ሗ࿌ ➨58ྕ䛹ᘓタᴗእ䛾䠅␗ᴗ✀䛛䜙䛾ᕷሙཧධ䛃䛺䛹䛾ᙳ㡪䜢䛒§３． 気候変動経営への展開 -リスクと機会-䜟䛫䛶⪃䛘䜛䛸䚸䛂ᴗົ䛾䝸䝰䞊䝖໬䛃䛂᪋ᕤ䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾⮬ື໬䛃䛂ᢏ⾡⪅䞉సᴗဨ䛻ồ䜑䜙䜜䜛ຊ㔞䛾ኚ໬䛃䛂஦ᴗ

3.1 経営レビューとシナリオ重要課題の展開䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛷ホ౯ᢳฟ䛥䜜䛯309䛾㔜せㄢ㢟䛾ᒎ㛤䞉❧ᆅ䛾ኚ໬䛃䛜᝿ᐃ䛥䜜䛯䚹᝿ᐃ䛥䜜䜛᫬㛫 ㍈䜢⪃៖ 䛧䚸᫬ᶵ䜢㏨䛥䛪ㄢ㢟 ゎ Ỵ᥇ྰ䛿䚸⤒Ⴀ䜢ྵ䜐♫ෆ඲య䛾䝺䝡䝳䞊䛜ᚲせ䛸䛺䜛䚹䛻ྲྀ䜚⤌䜐䛣䛸䛷䚸䝸䝇䜽䛿஦ᴗᶵ఍䛸䜒䛺䜚ᚓ䜛䚹඲య䛾Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䜈䛾㌿᥮䛻ྥ䛡䛶㔜せㄢ㢟䜢7䛴䛾㒊㛛䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢ಠ▔䛧䛶䚸᝿ᐃ䛥䜜䜛஦㇟䛾䛥䜎䛦䜎䛺ഃ㠃䛸ู䠄Ⴀᴗ䚸タィ䚸᪋ᕤ䚸ㄪ㐩䚸ᢏ⾡䚸⟶⌮䚸⤒Ⴀ䠅䚸䛾䜉䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾┦㛵ᛶ䜢䛸䜙䛘䜛䛯䜑䛻᫬㛫㍈䛷䝸䝇䝖໬䛧䛯33㡯 ┠ 䛻ᩚ ⌮ 䛧䚸Ẽ ೃ ኚ ື 䝸䝇䜽䛸஦ ᴗ ᶵ ఍ 䜈䛾㔜せ䛣䛸䛿᭷┈䛷䛒䛳䛯䚹ㄢ 㢟 䛸 䛧 䛶 ྍ ど ໬ 䛧䛯 䛂 䝅 䝘 䝸 䜸 ศ ᯒ 㔜 せ ㄢ 㢟 䠄 㒊 㛛䛣䜜䜙䛿ᘓタᴗ⏺䛜௨๓䛛䜙ᢪ䛘䛶䛔䜛ᑡᏊ㧗㱋໬䚸ู䠅䛃䜢ᨭᗑᖿ㒊ྵ䜐⤒Ⴀᒙ䛻ᥦ♧䛧䛯䚹䛣䜜䛻䜘䜚䚸෌ᢏ ⾡ ⪅ 䞉సᴗ ဨ ୙ ㊊ ၥ 㢟 䛻ᑐ 䛩䜛ປ ົ ᑐ ⟇ 䜔⏕ ⏘ ᛶ⏕ྍ⬟䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䚸㜵⅏䚸೺ᗣ⤒Ⴀ䛺䛹䚸᪤Ꮡ䛾άື䛸ྥୖᑐ⟇䛾ᘏ㛗 ⥺ୖ䛸䛧䛶ಶู䛻䛸䜙䛘䜛䛾䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸䛾㛵ಀ䜔఩⨨௜䛡䚸ຍ䛘䛶⮬♫䛜ඃඛ䛧䛶ᑐᛂ䛩䜉䛝Ẽೃኚື䜔ேཱྀῶᑡ䚸ാ䛝᪉䚸DX ➼䛻䜘䜛♫఍ⓗኚ㛗 ᮇ ⓗ 䛺䝅䝘䝸䜸䛜᫂ ☜ ໬ 䚸ඹ ᭷䛥䜜䚸⤒ Ⴀ ᒙ 䛾ពᛮᐜ䛜䜒䛯䜙䛩᪂䛯䛺⤒Ⴀㄢ㢟䛸䛧䛶䚸䛂୰㛗ᮇⓗ䛺᫬㛫Ỵᐃ䜔᪋⟇䚸஦ᴗᒎ㛤䛾᪉ ྥ䜢㆟ㄽ䞉᳨ウ䛩䜛䝧䞊䝇㍈䛾୰䛷⥲ྜⓗ䛻ᑐ⟇䜢ྲྀ䜛యไ䛜ᚲせ䛃䛸䛔䛖䛣䛸䛷䛸䛧䛶ά⏝䛥䜜䜛䛣䛸䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹ᨭᗑᖿ㒊䜢ྵ䜐⤒Ⴀᒙ䛻䛒䜛䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸䛛䜙䚸᪤Ꮡ䛾♫఍䞉⏘ᴗᵓ㐀䜢๓ᥦ䛸䛧䛶䜘䜛䠎ᅇ䛾㆟ㄽ䞉᳨ウ䜢⤒䛶䚸2022ᖺᗘ䛛䜙䛾୰ᮇ⤒Ⴀᑐᛂ䛩䜛䜿䞊䝇䛸䚸䛭䛾♫఍䞉⏘ᴗᵓ㐀⮬య䛜ኚᐜ䛧䛶ィ⏬䚸㒊㛛㛗ᮇᡓ␎䚸ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨᡓ␎䛻཯ᫎ䞉⤫ྜ䛥䜜䛔䛟䛣䛸䜢᝿ᐃ䛧䛶ᑐᛂ䛩䜛஧㠃䛾どⅬ䜢ᣢ䛱䚸䛭䛾୧䛯䚹䛣䜜䜙䛾᪋⟇䛿䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䝅䝇䝔䝮䛾ᯟ⤌䜏䛻ἢ䛳᪉䛻ᑐᛂ䛷䛝䜛యไ䜢ᩚഛ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛜₯ᅾⓗ䝺䝇䝫䞁䝇

䛶䚸2022ᖺᗘ䛾㒊㛛┠ᶆ䛻ᒎ㛤䛥䜜䚸㐍ᤖ⟶⌮䛸䝺䝡䝳䛾㔜せ䛺Ⅼ䛷䛒䜛䚹䞊ᨵၿ䜢ᐇ⾜䛩䜛䛣䛸䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹ᢸᙜᙺဨ䜢୰ᚰ䛸䛩䜛䛂⬺Ⅳ⣲㛗ᮇᡓ␎䛃䛾⟇ᐃ䜒䚸䛣䛖䛔䛳䛯┦஫ 㛵ಀ䜔እ㒊 ⎔ቃ䛾ኚ໬䜢⪃៖ 䛧䛺䛜䜙䚸⮬♫䜈䛾ᙳ㡪䜢⮬♫ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䛸䛧䛶ᩚ⌮䚸⤫ྜ䛒䜟䛫䛶㐍⾜୰䛷䛒䜛䚹䛩䜛సᴗ䜢⾜䛳䛯䚹⮬♫ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾⢭ᗘ䜢㧗䜑䜛䛯䜑䚸䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䝯

3.2 シナリオ分析の展開状況䞁䝞䞊௨ እ 䛾㒊 㛛 䞉㒊 ⨫ 䛛䜙㛵 ಀ ⪅ 䜢ᣍ 㞟 䛧䛯ᣑ ኱䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ㔜 せㄢ 㢟䛾ᒎ 㛤≧ἣ䜢᳨ ド䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸

WG 䜢 4 ᅇᐇ᪋䛧䚸䜘䜚」ྜⓗ䛺どⅬ䛷䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢䝺䝡䝳䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖⤊ ஢ ᚋ 䚸2022ᖺ ᗘ 䛻䛂䝅䝘䝸䜸ศ ᯒ 㔜せㄢ䞊䛧䛯䚹㢟䠄㒊 㛛ู䠅䛃䛸ྛ㒊 㛛䛾2022ᖺᗘ 㒊㛛 ┠ ᶆ䞉᪋ ⟇䛸䛾୍㐃䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒసᴗ䜢㏻䛧䚸䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢ྵ䜑඲ 521 䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢タᐃ䛧䛯䚹↷ྜㄪᰝ䜢ᐇ᪋䛧䛯䚹䛭䛾⤖ᯝ䚸㔜せㄢ㢟䛾䜉33㡯┠୰ 26㡯 ┠ 䛜 㒊 㛛 ┠ ᶆ 䞉 ᪋ ⟇ 䛻グ ㍕ ᒎ 㛤 䛥䜜 䚸 ᒎ 㛤 ⋡79䠂䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹タ ィ 㒊 㛛 䛷䛿Ⓨ ὀ ⪅ 䛾ព ྥ 䛻䜘䜛䛸䛣䜝䛜኱ 䛝䛔䛯

2.5 重要課題（マテリアリティ）の抽出・シナリオ統合・内䜑䚸㔜せㄢ㢟5㡯┠䛾䚸㒊㛛┠ᶆ䞉᪋⟇䜈䛾┤᥋䛾グ㍕部レビュー
521 䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸䛻ᑐ䛧䚸䝸䝇䜽䚸ᶵ఍䚸䝁䝇䝖䚸☜䛛䜙䛧䛥䠄☜ᐇᛶ䠅䚸ຠᯝ䞉♫఍ⓗ౯್䛺䛹䛛䜙䚸㔜せᛶ䜢ホ౯䛧䚸䛿↓䛛䛳䛯䛜䚸ಶู䛾タ ィ 䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛷䛿ᒎ 㛤䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸ᐇ㉁ⓗ䛺ᒎ㛤⋡䛿90䠂䜢㉸䛘䜛䚹㒊 㛛 ┠ ᶆ 䛾㐍 ᤖ ⟶ ⌮ 䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸㒊 ⨫ ┠ ᶆ 䛾ᮇ୰ㄢ㢟䜢ᢳฟ䛧䛯䚹㔜せㄢ㢟䛾ᢳฟ䛻䛒䛯䛳䛶䛿䚸⤒Ⴀᒙ䜈䛾ㄝ᫂䛸⌮䝏䜵䝑䜽䚸ෆ㒊┘ᰝ䚸䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䝺䝡䝳䞊䛺䛹䚸䝬䝛䝆䝯ゎ䜢ಁ䛩䛯䜑䚸䛂ᘓタᴗ⏺඲య䛻ᙳ㡪䛩䜛ᑐᛂᚲ㡲䛾䝸䞁䝖䝅䝇䝔䝮䛻䜘䜚┘ど䡡ᨵၿ䛻⤌䜏㎸䜏㐠⏝୰䛷䛒䜛䚹䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䛃䚸䜎䛯䛂ᕪู໬䛾Ⅼ䛛䜙౯್䛾㧗䛔䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䛃䜒⪃៖䛧䚸஦ᴗᙳ㡪䜢పῶ䞉ᅇ㑊䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻ྲྀ䜚ᚓ䜛

3.3 シナリオ分析と意義ᡭ❧䛶䠄₯ᅾⓗ䝺䝇䝫䞁䝇䠅䜒᳨ウ䛧䛺䛜䜙㐍䜑䛯䚹䝸䝇䜽♫ ෆ 䛷TCFD䛻ἢ 䛳䛯䝅䝘䝸䜸ศ ᯒ 䝥䝻䝉䝇䜢᳨ウ䞉䛸ᶵ఍䛿⾲⿬୍య䛷䚸᫬ᶵ 䜢䛸䜙䛘䛯⣲᪩䛔䝸䝇䜽ᑐᛂ

㛤Ⓨ䛧䛯䛣䛸䚸䜎䛯㔜せㄢ㢟䜢ᢳฟ䞉ホ౯䛧䛯䛣䛸䛷䚸⊂䛿஦ᴗᶵ఍䛸䛺䜚ᚓ䜛䛣䛸䜒䚸㔜せ䛺どⅬ䛷䛒䜛䚹⮬ᛶ䛒䜛ศᯒ䝥䝻䝉䝇䜔䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢ᐇ⌧䞉☜ಖ䛧䛯䚹䛣䜜䜙䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䛛䜙䚸䝸䝇䜽䜔஦ᴗᶵ఍䛸䛺䜛 309 䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛾୍㐃䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䚸ᡂᯝ䚸⤒㔜せㄢ㢟䠄䝬䝔䝸䜰䝸䝔䜱䠅䜢ᢳฟ䛧䚸䛣䜜䜙䜢䝸䝇䝖໬䛧䛯䚹Ⴀィ⏬䞉㒊㛛┠ᶆ䞉᪋⟇䜈䛾ᒎ㛤䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸䜲䞁䝖䝷䝛ᢳฟ䛥䜜䛯㔜せㄢ 㢟 䛿䚸䛄⬺ Ⅳ ⣲䛅䛄⅏ ᐖ䡡㜵 ⅏䛅䛄⮬䝑䝖ᑓ⏝䝃䜲䝖䜔♫ෆሗ䛷䛾⤂௓䛻ຍ䛘䚸♫እ䛻ᑐ䛧䛶↛㈨ᮏ䛅䛄ປാ䡡೺ᗣ䛅䛾䠐䛴䛾ศ㔝䛻㞟⣙䛥䜜䛯䚹

䛿CSR䝺䝫䞊䝖䛻䜘䜛᝟ሗ㛤♧䜢⾜䛳䛯䚹䛣䜜䜙䛾᝟ሗ−82−
䠉4䠉䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛸Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䜈䛾ᒎ㛤

ᅗ3 䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ㔜せㄢ㢟䠄㒊㛛ู䠅䠄⤒Ⴀᒙྥ䛡㈨ᩱ䛛䜙⦅㞟䠅Ⓨಙ䛿䚸䛂⮬♫䛜኱ษ䛻䛧䛶䛔䜛䜒䛾䛿ఱ䛛䛃䛂ඃඛⓗ♫ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䛛䜙䚸2050ᖺ䛻Ẽୖ᪼䜢1.5℃௨ෆ䛻䛻ྲྀ䜚⤌䜐䜉䛝䛣䛸䛿ఱ䛛䛃䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸♫ෆ 䛷䛾ඹ㏻ ⌮ᢚ䛘䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿䚸ㄢ㢟ゎỴ⟇䛜ྠ䛨䛷䜒䚸䛭䛣䛻ྥ䛛䛖䛯ゎ䜢㔊ᡂ䛧䛯䚹䜑䛾ṧ䛥䜜䛯᫬㛫䛿ཝ䛧䛟䚸䜘䜚᪩䛔ᑐᛂ䛜ồ䜑䜙䜜䜛䛯䛺䛚䚸䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾᭱⤊ẁ㝵䛷䛿䚸䛣䛾ศ㔝䛻⢭㏻䛧䛯

䜑䚸 2030 ᖺ 䜎 䛷 䛾 ྲྀ ⤌ 䜏 䞉 ⾜ ື 䛜 䜽 䝸 䝔䜱 䜹 䝹 䛸 䛺䜛 䚹䝁䞁䝃䝹䝍䞁䝖఍♫䛾䝺䝡䝳䞊䜢ཷ䛡䚸䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾ጇᙜᛶ2030ᖺ ௦ ๓ ༙ 㡭 䛻䛿⮫ ⏺ Ⅼ 䛻㐩 䛩䜛ྍ ⬟ ᛶ 䛜䛒䜛䛯䜢☜ㄆ䛧䛯䚹䜑䚸ඃ ඛ㡰 ఩䜢䜒䛳䛶ྲྀ ⤌ 䜏䜢ຍ ㏿䛥䛫䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛜㔜䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛻䜘䜚䚸Ẽೃኚື䛾䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䜢㋃䜎䛘

せ䛷䛒䜛䚹䛣䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⅼ䛜せ௳䛸䛧䛶ぢ䛘䛶䛝䛯䚹䛯஦ ᴗάື䛸ᴗົ䝥䝻䝉䝇䛜㐃 ື 䛧䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䜢䚸♫ ෆእ䛾䝇䝔䞊䜽䝩䝹䝎䞊䛻ྥ䛡䛶ㄝ᫂䞉Ⓨಙ䛷䛝䜛䜘䛖䛻䛺§４． 今後の展開と課題䛳䛯ព⩏䛿኱䛝䛔䚹䜎䛯୍㐃䛾ศᯒ䜢㏻䛧䛶䚸ḟ䛾Ⅼ䜒᪂䛯䛻ㄆ㆑䛥䜜䚸

4.1 シナリオ分析手法の応用Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䛾せ௳䛸䛧䛶ྵ䜑䛶䛔䜛䚹Ẽೃኚື䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䛜䜒䛯䜙䛩ᙳ 㡪䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸≀⌮TCFDᥦゝ䛻ἢ䛳䛯௻ᴗ䛾Ẽೃኚືᑐ⟇䛸⤒Ⴀᡓ␎ⓗ䛚䜘䜃⛣⾜䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䚸䜎䛯䛭䜜䜙䛛䜙ὴ⏕䛧䛶⮬♫䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾᝟ሗ㛤♧䚸䛚䜘䜃䛭䛾๓ᥦ䛸䛺䜛䝅䝘䝸䜸ศ䜔ᴗ⏺඲య䚸♫఍඲య䛻Ἴཬ䛩䜛ᙳ㡪䜢ྵ䜑䚸᝿ᐃ䛥ᯒ䛿䚸䜒䛿䜔ୖሙ௻ᴗ䛰䛡䛷䛺䛟䚸䛒䜙䜖䜛௻ᴗ䛜ᣢ⥆䜜䜛䝅䝘䝸䜸䛿┦஫䛻㐃ື䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹䛣䛾䛯䜑䚸௻ᴗ䛾ᑐྍ⬟䛺⤒Ⴀ䜢ᐇ㊶䛧䛶䛔䛟ୖ䛷䚸䜎䛯䛔䛴䛷䜒᝟ሗ㛤♧ᛂ䛿┦ᑐⓗ䞉⥲ྜⓗ䛻䛸䜙䛘䜛ᚲせ䛜䛒䜛䚹䛷䛝䜛䜘䛖ᑐᛂ䛜୙ྍḞ䛷䛒䜛䚹᭱኱䛾ㄢ㢟䛷䛒䛳䛯⤒2050ᖺ䛻ྥ䛡䛶䛾⬺Ⅳ⣲♫఍䛾ᐇ⌧䛜஦ᐇୖୡ⏺

Ⴀᒙ䛾ᕳ䛝㎸䜏䛿䚸䛣䛖䛧䛯♫఍᝟ໃ䛾ኚ໬䜒㏣䛔㢼䛸

䛾ඹ㏻ㄆ㆑䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹᝿ᐃ䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢ᖺ⾲䛻⤫ྜ䛧䛯⮬䛺䜚䚸Ẽೃኚືᑐᛂ䜢䛧䛺䛔䛣䛸䛿஦ᴗ⥅⥆ୖ䛾῝้䛺−83−
䠉5䠉䝣䝆䝍ᢏ⾡◊✲ሗ࿌ ➨58ྕ䝸䝇䜽䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䛾ㄆ㆑䜒ᾐ㏱䛧䛶䛔䛳䛯䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛛⤌⧊ 䛜䛂䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺᪂䛯䛺౯ ್䜢⏕ 䜏ฟ䛧䛶䛔䛟఍♫䜙ᢳฟ䛥䜜䛯㔜せㄢ㢟䠄䝬䝔䝸䜰䝸䝔䜱䠅䛜୰ᮇ⤒Ⴀィ⏬

䛺䛾䛛䛃䚸䛂䛹䛖䜔䛳䛶䛭䛾౯್䜢⏕䜏ฟ䛩఍♫䛺䛾䛛䛃䛻⤫ྜ䛥䜜䛯䛸ྠ᫬䛻䚸ᚑ᮶ 䛾▷ᮇⓗ⤒Ⴀ䛛䜙୰㛗ᮇ䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸᫂☜䛺䝇䝖䞊䝸䞊䜢䜒䛳䛶᝟ሗ㛤♧䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣ⓗ䛺どⅬ䛷䛾䛂Ẽೃኚື⤒Ⴀ䛃䛻䝅䝣䝖䛩䜛⤒Ⴀኚ㠉䛾䛸䜒ၥ䜟䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹௒ᚋ䛾䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸ᨵᐃ䜔♫఍᝟䛝䛳䛛䛡䛸䛺䛳䛯䛾䛜䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛷䛒䛳䛯䚹ໃ䛾ኚ ໬䛻䛸䜒䛺䛖䝅䝘䝸䜸䛸㔜せㄢ 㢟䛾᭦ ᪂䠄ኚ᭦⟶

䛂CO2๐ῶ䛃䛂㈨※ ᚠ ⎔䛃䛂⏕ ≀ከ ᵝ ᛶಖ ඲䛃䛺䛹䚸ᅜ䜔ᴗ⏺䛾᪋⟇䜔♫఍䞉㢳ᐈ䝙䞊䝈䛻ἢ䛳䛯άື䛿䛣䜜⌮䠅䛿⤒Ⴀ䜔⎔ቃᢸᙜ㒊⨫䛜ᢸ䛔䚸⤌⧊඲య䛷䛾㐠⏝䛿䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䝅䝇䝔䝮䛻⤌䜏㎸䜏䚸ᒎ㛤䜢㐍䜑䜛䚹䜎䛷䜒♫ෆ䛷ྲྀ䜚⤌䜣䛷䛝䛯䛜䚸እ㒊䛛䜙䛾䝙䞊䝈䜔₻ὶ䛻ᑐᛂ䛧䛶䛔䛟䛰䛡䛷䛿䚸♫఍ኚ໬䚸䝍䜲䝭䞁䜾䜢༑ศ䛻ㄞ䜏ྲྀ䜛䛣䛸䛜䛷䛝䛪䚸஦㇟ᑐᛂᆺ䛾ᚋ㏣䛔ᡓ␎䛸䛺§５． まとめ -シナリオ分析の結果から-䛳䛶䛧䜎䛖䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䜢⾜䛳䛯䛣䛸䛷䚸Ẽೃኚື䛸䛔䛖኱ 䛝䛺ᯟ⤌ 䜏䛷⮬ ♫ 䛾䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ ఍ 䜢Ẽ ೃ ኚ ື ⤒ Ⴀ 䛾䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛛䜙ᚓ䜙䜜䛯ᡭἲ䜔せ௳䛿ḟ䛾䛸䛚䜚䚹ほⅬ䛷䛸䜙䛘䚸䛥䜙䛻୰㛗ᮇィ⏬䜔᪋⟇䛻⤫ྜ䛥䜜䜛䛣ᑟධ䛻䛒䛯䛳䛶䛿䚸⤒Ⴀᒙ䜢ᕳ䛝㎸䜣䛰ᒎ㛤䛜㔜せ䛸䛷䚸㔜せㄢ 㢟 䛾᳨ ウ䛛䜙ᑟ䛝ฟ䛥䜜䛯ྛ 㒊 㛛┠ ᶆ 䜔䛷䚸䝸䝇䜽䛻ຍ䛘䚸஦ᴗᶵ఍䜈䛾ὀ┠䜒ຠᯝ䛜䛒䛳䛯䚹᪋⟇䚸άື䛾⿬௜䛡䛸䛺䛳䛯䚹≉䛻஦ᴗᶵ఍䛷䛿䚸⮬♫䝅䝘䝸䜸䛿┦஫䛻」ྜⓗ䛺㛵ಀ䛻䛒䜚䚸㔜せㄢ㢟䛸䛭ᑐᛂ䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢ά⏝䛧䛶᫬㛫㍈䛾୰䛷䝍䜲䝮䝸䞊䛻䛸䜙䛘䛾䝺䝇䝫䞁䝇䜢⪃䛘䜛ୖ䛷⪃៖䛜ᚲ㡲䛷䛒䛳䛯䚹ᙜ♫䛾䛯䛣䛸䛛䜙䚸䛂ᴗ⏺඲య䛷ᚲ 䛪ᑐᛂ䛩䜉䛝ほⅬ䛛䜙䛾ྲྀሙ ྜ䚸㔜 せ ㄢ 㢟 䛿䛄⬺ Ⅳ ⣲ 䛅䛄⅏ ᐖ 䡡㜵 ⅏䛅䛄⮬ ↛ ㈨ᮏ䛅⤌䜏䛃䚸䛂᪂ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ䚸᪂つ஦ᴗ䜈䛾ඛ⾜ᢞ㈨䜢䛧䛶䛷䛄ປാ䡡೺ᗣ䛅䛾䠐ศ㔝䛻㞟⣙䛥䜜䛯䚹2030ᖺ䜎䛷䛾ྲྀ⤌䜒䜔䜛౯್䛾㧗䛔ほⅬ䛛䜙䛾ྲྀ⤌䜏䛃䜢᫂☜䛻䛩䜛䛣䛸䜏䞉⾜ື䛜㔜せ䛷䚸୰㛗ᮇⓗ䚸⥲ྜⓗ䚸ಠ▔ⓗ䛺ᑐ⟇䛸䛜䛷䛝䚸≉䛻ᚋ⪅䛿」ྜⓗ 䛺♫఍ㄢ㢟䜢┦ᑐⓗ䞉⥲ྜయไ䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜛䚹䛣䛾䛯䜑┠ᶆ䜈䛾ᒎ㛤䞉㐠⏝䛿䚸᪤ⓗ䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛷➇தຊ䚸ᕪู໬䛻䛴䛺䛜䜛䚹Ꮡ䛾䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䝅䝇䝔䝮䛻⤌䜏㎸䜣䛰䚹䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛿䚸Ẽೃኚື ⤒Ⴀ䛻ᙳ㡪䜢䛚䜘䜌䛩♫䝁䞁䝃䝹䝍䞁䝖䜢ධ䜜䛪♫ෆ 䛷䝅䝘䝸䜸ศ ᯒ䜢ᐇ᪋䛧఍ືྥ䜔䝧䞊䝇䝅䝘䝸䜸ᨵᐃ䛺䛹䛾஦ᴗ⎔ቃ䛾ኚ໬䜢䛯䛣䛸䛷᫬ 㛫 䛿䛛䛛䛳䛯䛜䚸ศ ᯒ 䜔ㄢ 㢟 䛾⊂ ⮬ ᛶ䜢☜ὀど䛧䛺䛜䜙䚸⥅⥆ⓗ䛻䝅䝘䝸䜸䞉㔜せㄢ 㢟䛾ぢ ┤䛧䜢ಖ䛷䛝䚸⥔ᣢ䜔䝁䝇䝖㠃䛷䜒ຠᯝ䛜䛒䜛䛸⪃䛘䜛䚹⾜䛔䚸᝟ሗ㛤♧䛩䜛㐠⏝䝃䜲䜽䝹䜢ᐇ᪋䞉⥔ᣢ⟶⌮䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛜ᚲせ䛸䛺䜛䚹⥅⥆ ⓗ䝃䜲䜽䝹䛾୰䛷䝅䝘䝸䜸䜢

謝辞 ᇳ ➹䛻䛒䛯䜚䚸⚄⏣ እ ㄒ኱ Ꮫᩍ ᤵ▼ ஭㞞 ❶Ặ䚸᭦᪂䛧䚸⮬♫䛾⤒Ⴀᡓ␎䛾㌶㐨ಟṇ䜢⾜䛔䛺䛜䜙䝺䝆䝸䝃䝇䝔䝘䝡䝸䝔䜱᪥ᮏ䝣䜷䞊䝷䝮ᚋ⸨ᩄᙪẶ䛻䛿㈗㔜䛺䛤䜶䞁䝇䜢ᙉ໬䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛜௻ᴗ౯್ྥୖ䛾⿬௜䛡䛸䛺ពぢ䚸䛤ᣦᑟ䜢㈷䜚䜎䛧䛯䚹䛣䛣䛻グ䛧䛶ឤㅰ䛔䛯䛧䜎䛩䚹䜚䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒᮏ᮶䛾┠ⓗ䛸䛔䛘䜛䚹ヨ⾜㘒ㄗ䜢⧞䜚㏉䛧䛺䛜䜙స䜚ୖ䛢䛯ศᯒᡭἲ䛿䚸Ẽೃኚື௨እ䛾஦㇟䚸DX䚸ேᶒ䝸䝇䜽䛺䛹䚸ศ㔝䜢㝈ᐃ䛫䛪ᛂ⏝䛷䛝䜛䚹ᑗ᮶䛾୙☜ᐇᛶ䚸䛭䜜䛸㐃ື䛧䛯♫఍䝅䝇䝔䝮➼䛾ኚ໬䛾୰䛷䚸᝿ീຊ䛸๰㐀ຊ䜢౑䛳䛶ᮍ᮶䜢䛹䛖᝿ᐃ䛧䚸ᑐ ᛂ 䛩䜛䛛䚸ᴗ ົ䛸↷䜙䛧ྜ 䜟䛫䛯ඛ ⾜ ᳨参 考 文 献1)2)3)4)

ᘅ⏣ಟ䚸಴ᶫᑦᏊ䚸▼஭㞞❶䠖➨50ᅇᅵᮌᏛ఍⎔ቃ䝅䝇䝔䝮◊✲ㄽᩥⓎ⾲఍ㅮ₇㞟䚸pp.151-156䚸2022 䠄ᮏሗ࿌ฟ඾䠅䝣䝆䝍“㧗”⎔ቃ䝺䝫䞊䝖䚸pp.49-50䚸2022䝃䝇䝔䝘䝡䝸䝔䜱᪥ᮏ䝣䜷䞊䝷䝮䠖Ẽೃ㛵㐃㈈ົ᝟ሗ㛤♧ 䝍䝇䜽䝣䜷䞊䝇䛾ᥦゝ ᭱⤊ሗ࿌᭩䚸2018䜏䛪䜋䝸䝃䞊䝏䠃䝔䜽䝜䝻䝆䞊䝈䠖TCFD䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛾ᐇົ䚸
2018ウ䛾᭷ຠ䛺䝒䞊䝹䛸䛔䛘䜛䛾䛷䛿䛺䛔䛛䚹
ひとこと4.2 今後の課題䝅䝘䝸䜸ศᯒ䛿䚸⤌⧊䛾䝸䝇

TCFD䛾4䛴䛾୰ ᰾ ⓗ せ⣲䠄䜺䝞䝘䞁䝇䚸ᡓ ␎䚸䝸䝇䜽䜽䛸ᶵ఍䜢᫬㛫㍈䛷䛸䜙䛘䚸ⓗ䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䚸ᣦᶆ䛸┠ᶆ䠅䛾㛤♧䛸♫ෆయไ䛜ㄢ㢟䛷䛒☜䛺‽ഛᑐᛂ䜢ྍ⬟䛸䛩䜛⤒䜛䚹䛭䛾䛯䜑䜺䝞䝘䞁䝇䞉䝸䝇䜽䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖యไ䚸౯್๰Ⴀ䝒䞊䝹䛷䛩䚹TCFD䛾᝟ሗ㛤㐀䝡䝆䝛䝇䛾ᵓ⠏䞉ゝㄒ໬䜢ྵ䜑䛯䛂⬺Ⅳ⣲㛗ᮇᡓ␎䛃♧ せ ௳ 䛾 ᢅ䛔䛻 ␃䜎䜙 䛪䚸 ⤒䜢ᵓ⠏୰䛷䛒䜛䚹Ⴀ䞉஦ᴗᡓ␎䛾ᵓ⠏䜔䝺䝡䝳䞊䝸䝇䜽䛸ᶵ఍䛜㈈ົ䛻䛚䜘䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸௒ᅇ䛾ศᯒ䛷䛿ຠᯝ䞉ᙳ㡪䛻䛴䛔䛶䛂኱䞉୰䞉ᑠ䛃䛸䛔䛖ᐃᛶⓗᘅ⏣ ಟ䛻ά⏝䛩䜛䛸ຠᯝⓗ䛷䛩䚹Ẽೃኚື௨እ䛾䛥䜎䛦䜎䛺ศ㔝䛻䜒ホ౯䛻␃䜎䛳䛯䚹㒊㛛┠ᶆ䛻ᒎ㛤䛥䜜䛯ᚋ䛾ண⟬ᥐ⨨ᛂ⏝䛷䛝䜛䛯䜑䚸䛬䜂䝅䝘䝸䜸䛾᳨ド䛺䛹䚸㈈ົᡓ␎䛸䜒㐃ື䛥䛫䚸⢭ᗘ䜢ୖ䛢䛶䛔䛟䚹ศᯒ䛾ヨ⾜䜢䛚່䜑䛧䜎䛩䚹−84−䠉6䠉