20

MIDDLE EAST AND
NORTH AFRICA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
Syria

Conflict 2,137,000
Disasters 214,000
8.4% of the global total

1,676,000

Yemen

270,000

Iraq

219,000

Iran

74,000Libya

70,000

Conflict and violence continued to drive internal displacement in the Middle East and North Africa. More than
2.1 million new displacements represented a drop of
more than 50 per cent on the previous year, but almost
11 million people were living in internal displacement in
the region at the end of the year, accounting for morethan a quarter of the global total. The decrease in new
displacements was mainly the result of the conflicts in
Iraq and Syria winding down as both countries’ armies
consolidated their hold on territory recovered from
Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and other armed
groups. Disasters triggered more than 200,000 new
displacements.
Despite the decline in conflict and displacement in Syria
during 2018, the country’s civil war, in its eighth year,
continued to trigger some of the largest population
movements in the world. More than 1.6 million new
displacements were recorded, the highest number inthe region for the fourth year running. Government
offensives to retake areas of Idlib and Dara’a governorates and the Damascus suburbs led to the majorityof new displacements. The battle for Dara’a triggered
more than 285,000, the largest single displacement
event of the war.
Large-scale returns were also recorded shortly after
each offensive, and these are likely to continue in the
coming months. It will be important to monitor such
movements closely to better understand the conditions to which people are returning (see Syria spotlight, p.24). Heavy rains and flooding, which were

GRID
2019

particularly intense in 2018, displaced as many as 27,000
people in Al Hasakeh, Idlib, Aleppo and Ar Raqqa governorates, all of them IDPs already living in precarious
conditions in camps.
The conflict in Yemen escalated significantly in thesecond half of 2018 as the Saudi-led coalition stepped
up its offensive to take control of Hodeidah port,
which is controlled by the Houthi movement. Residents
began to flee the city pre-emptively in early June, whenfighting appeared imminent, eventually leading to mass
movements. At least 64,000 new displacements could
be verified, but several unvalidated media reports cited
hundreds of thousands of displacements and the true
figure is likely to be much higher. There was subsequently a temporary lull in the fighting, but it escalated
again in October and November, raising serious humanitarian concerns.
The parties to the conflict met in Stockholm in December
and agreed to mutually redeploy their forces, swap
prisoners and discuss de-escalation along the Taiz
frontline.74 Many details of the agreement were still
to be ironed out as of early 2019 and exchanges offire continued to threaten the fragile ceasefire, but it
succeeded in preventing a major humanitarian crisis.
Across the country as a whole, 252,000 new displacements associated with conflict and violence wererecorded and at least 2.3 million people were living ininternal displacement as of the end of the year. Thesefigures are considered underestimates, due to chal-21
landmines and unexploded ordnance.76 These factors
have combined to slow the pace of returns as IDPs
choose to remain in displacement until conditions intheir areas of origin improve.

Around 1.1 million returns were recorded in Iraq in
2018, outnumbering new displacements. At 150,000,
the number of new displacements was at its lowest
since 2014 when the war against ISIL began. Despite
the official end of the conflict on 9 December 2017 andthe high number of returns, almost two million people
were still living in displacement as of the end of 2018.
Their living conditions are generally difficult, and manyof those in camps have to make do with inadequate
shelter and services, and struggle to meet their mostbasic needs.75

Flooding and drought triggered the majority of the
69,000 new displacements associated with disasters
recorded in Iraq last year. Flooding affected the northof the country particularly hard, triggering more than
35,000 in Ninewa, Salah al Din, Dahuk and Kirkuk governorates in late November and early December. A
significant number of IDPs were displaced again fromcamps when their tents were destroyed. Drought triggered 20,000 new displacements in the south of thecountry as people fled their homes in search of livelihoods, particularly in Thi Qar, Missan and Qadissiya
governorates.77

Whether those who have tried to return have been able
to achieve durable solutions is unclear. Almost 9,000
people deemed to have returned actually returned todisplacement, but not enough information is available
to determine the situation of the vast majority. Potential obstacles to durable solutions include bureaucratic
procedures, damage to homes and basic infrastructure,a lack of livelihood opportunities and the presence ofPART 1

lenges in data collection caused by access constraints.
More than 18,000 new displacements associated withdisasters were also recorded, the result of cyclones thatstruck southern governorates in May and October.

The situation in Libya deteriorated significantly in 2018,with 70,000 new displacements associated with conflictand violence recorded, more than double the number
for the previous year. New conflict in the urban centresof Tripoli, Derna and Sebha led to the destruction of
infrastructure and breakdown of basic services, triggering more than 63,000 new displacements. Migrants

Children play at the Al
Habbari informal camp for
displaced people in Sana’a,
Yemen. Photo: NRC/Becky
Bakr Abdulla, August 201822
and refugees whose detention centres were caught inthe crossfire were also affected (see Libya spotlight,p.26). Fighting and displacement also took place inthe districts of Jufra and Murqub and the cities of Sirte
and Sabratha, and across large swathes of the south,
where foreign armed groups continued to establish safe
havens and fuel insecurity.
Military offensives in Egypt against an ISIL affiliate led
to evictions and the widespread destruction of homes,commercial buildings and farms in North Sinai governorate. More than 15,000 new displacements wererecorded, but that is likely to be an underestimate giventhat the area is inaccessible and the figure was compiledusing satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts.78
More displacements associated with sudden-onset
disasters were recorded across the region in 2018 thanin previous years. Iran, which is prone to a range ofnatural hazards, was worst affected. Snow storms inJanuary and February triggered 24,000 new displacements, while floods led to more than 1,400 throughout
the year. In November, an earthquake struck the western
province of Kermanshah, in particular Sar Pol-e Zahab,
triggering almost 47,000 new displacements.

Urban perspectives
More than 65 per cent of the region’s population lives
in urban areas, in a region where cities have historically
been key hubs of trade and development.79 Much of
the region’s conflict and displacement in recent years
has also taken place in towns and cities.80 Examples
include Aleppo, Dara’a, Idlib and Raqqa in Syria, Aden,
Hodeidahand Taiz in Yemen, Benghazi and Tripoli in
Libya and Mosul in Iraq.81 Some of the conflicts are
ongoing, and among those that have concluded or
stabilised, reconstruction and recovery challenges have
impeded the achievement of durable solutions.
Some conflicts have involved sieges being laid to entire
neighbourhoods, trapping civilians in their homes orimmediate surroundings. Eastern Ghouta in Syria is acase in point. Home to a million people, it was undersiege for five years. Repeated airstrikes and mortar fire
disrupted the provision of basic services and blocked
the entry of food and humanitarian aid. When the siege
was broken in March 2018, more than 158,000 people
moved out.82

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2019

In cities such as Aleppo, Mosul and Taiz, intra-urban
displacement patterns have been observed as residents
move to safer neighbourhoods in search of safety andservices.83 In Aleppo, Baghdad and Damascus, power
struggles influenced such movements, with conflict andviolence used to reorganise and divide populations into
ethnic and religious groups, dictating where people areable to go and whether or not they are able to return.84
Urban conflict is not a new phenomenon, but it creates
specific challenges for IDPs. Unexploded ordnance,
landmines and booby traps constitute an important
security threat for people wanting to return to previously densely populated areas.85 The destruction of
infrastructure and disruption of essential services havedirect, indirect and cumulative impacts that have thepotential to render whole neighbourhoods and entire
towns or cities uninhabitable.86 Once the fighting isover, the extent of the destruction and damage may
mean recovery takes years. More than a year after its
liberation from ISIL, most of Raqqa still lies in ruins andunexploded ordnance litters the town.87
De-escalating protracted urban conflict is key topromoting long-term stability and development in the
Middle East and North Africa. Reconstruction is essential
for peace-building and to ensure those affected are able
to re-establish their lives. Delays may destabilise cities
and countries, fuelling future conflict and displacement.
Beyond immediate and much-needed humanitarianassistance, the setbacks caused by urban conflict anddisplacement will not be overcome unless the development sector engages in implementing longer-term
recovery initiatives. Reinvigorating local economies will
be key to reducing poverty, and robust urban planningwill be equally important in supporting recovery andreducing the underlying drivers of insecurity and conflictacross the region as a whole.88

23
PART 1

Displaced people in Al-Areesha camp in Syria were severely
affected by heavy rains and widespread flooding in December
2018. Photo © UNHCR/Hisham Arafat, December 2018

24
SPOTLIGHT

SYRIA
A decisive year for the conflict,but not for those displaced

The Syrian government brought large swathes of territory back under its control in 2018, making it a decisive
year in the country’s civil war. Non-state armed groups
suffered severe losses as the government and affiliated forces retook Eastern Ghouta, Dara’a and Quneitra
governorates, the southern Damascus suburbs and thecity of Homs and its surrounding countryside. Only Idlib
governorate remains in the hands of non-state actors.
As the conflict nears its end, discussions about postconflict reconstruction and returns have begun. The
government passed a new law in April which designatesreconstruction zones across Syria. Law No. 10 also gives
landowners in those areas a year to prove ownership or
risk losing their land with no compensation.89 This law
has been criticised for its potential to create significant
obstacles to return (see Spotlight, p.96).90
The year began with government forces advancing toward
the north of Hama and west of Aleppo governorates
northern areas of rural Hama and western areas of rural
Aleppo, triggering more than 325,000 new displacements over a six-week period.91 An offensive launched in
February to retake the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta
lasted seven weeks and triggered more than 158,000 new
displacements between 9 March and 22 April.92 Around66,000 people were displaced to areas of north-west
Syria including Idlib and Aleppo, which were still under
the control of non-state armed actors. These areas havereceived large numbers of displaced fighters and theirfamilies over the years as a result of local ceasefires.93
Heavy fighting also broke out in the southern governorates of Dara’a and Quneitra in June and July, culminating
in an agreement that restored government control. The
offensive led to the single largest displacement event of
the war.94 The month-long campaign triggered at least
285,000 new displacements, the majority over a periodof just two weeks.95

GRID
2019

A similar fate seemed to await Idlib governorate in lateAugust and early September. The build-up of government and affiliated forces along the conflict line in thenorth of Hama and west of Aleppo governorates and asubsequent increase in aerial bombardments prompted
an international outcry and calls for restraint. The UN,international NGOs and governments around the world
warned that further escalation would result in a humanitarian disaster.96 The area is home to 2.3 million people,
almost half of them IDPs, who would have had nowhereto flee because Turkey has shut its border.
Idlib is the largest host of displaced people in the
country relative to population size, both in and outside
camps, and repeated displacement within the governorate is commonplace. Aid agencies on the ground reportthat families have been displaced an average of threeor four times, and some as many as a dozen times.97
Many may have chosen to flee abroad had Turkey not
closed its border. The proliferation of armed groups has
further destabilised the region, with occasional clashes
between factions and criminality disrupting daily life
and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Turkey and Russia brokered an agreement on 17
September to establish a demilitarised zone between
14 and 19 kilometres wide along the contact line andextending into north-eastern areas of rural Latakia.
Turkish military police have been stationed to monitor

25High levels of damage, destruction and displacement in Aleppo.
Photo: UNHCR/Antwan Chnkdji, October 2018

compliance, which includes the withdrawal of all heavy
weaponry. The agreement may have averted a humanitarian disaster for now, but reports of violations by allparties are a cause for concern.98 The initial stability it
has introduced should be built on to establish a more
lasting solution which genuinely protects Idlib’s civilians.
Many of the IDPs who fled their homes in 2018 havesince returned to their areas of origin, particularly in thesouth. About 695,000 people have been reported to havereturned to their homes in 2018. However, given the extent
of the damage caused by the fighting, ongoing insecurity
and lack of basic services and livelihood opportunities, it
is unclear how many of these will have reached durable
solutions. An unknown number have been unwilling toreturn, preferring to wait and see what life will be like intheir areas of origin under government control.99
Southern residents who want to remain in their homes,
including former fighters, have been told to “regularise” their status with the government, which involves
visiting a local registration centre to begin a reconciliation process and be granted amnesty. What this will
mean for the many people who previously lived in areas
beyond government control remains to be seen, butthere have been some initial reports of former fightersand other young men being arrested.100

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the security situationin the south has improved somewhat. Basic services
are still lacking, however, particularly in rural Dara’aand Quneitra, and restrictions to humanitarian accessmeans little aid has been delivered. Unemployment isalso a problem, particularly for low-skilled workers andthose suspected of being anti-government activists,
ex-combatants or former officials in non-state armed
groups.101 Many government employees who have notbeen directly affiliated with armed groups have reportedly returned to their jobs.
As the conflict apparently nears its end, important postconflict questions remain. It is unclear who will fund thereconstruction of major urban centres such as Aleppo
and Raqqa so that those displaced are able to return insafety and dignity.102 Nor is it clear how north-eastern
Syria and Idlib governorate will be administered, a situation that has the potential to reignite conflict.
In a country where nearly half of the population has
been displaced, managing the safe and sustainable
return of refugees and IDPs will be a huge challenge.
Pressure should be put on the Syrian government toaddress its displacement crisis with comprehensive policies in line with the Guiding Principles to prevent thecountry from descending into conflict again.103

26
SPOTLIGHT

LIBYA
Urban displacement driven by
escalating conflict and insecurity

There was hope in 2017 of a decrease in fighting anddisplacement in Libya, but clashes escalated in several
areas of the country in 2018. Fighting took place particularly in the urban centres of Tripoli, Derna and Sebha,
triggering 70,000 new displacements. Around 221,000
people were living in displacement nationwide as ofthe end of year, suffering dire conditions and unable toreturn because of destroyed housing, ongoing insecurity
and a lack of resources.104
In Tripoli, the seat of the internationally recognised
government, the deteriorating economic situation
fuelled new conflict. Militias from outside the city
attacked its southern neighbourhoods in late August,and the intense clashes continued until early October.
The fighting was sparked by a push to gain greater
control over economic institutions based on the perception that a small number of rival militias and interest
groups in the capital have disproportionate access tothe country’s wealth.105
Almost 33,000 people were displaced as a result, andmany others were trapped in their homes without accessto basic goods and services. The Libyan Red Crescentreceived more than 2,000 calls from families asking
to be evacuated, of whom only ten per cent had theirrequest granted. The use of heavy weaponry caused
severe damage to homes, roads, telecommunications
and utilities infrastructure and health and education
facilities. Most of those displaced sheltered with family
or friends, though about 200 families sought refuge infive schools across Tripoli.106
Libya continues to be the main point of departure forpeople attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe
and a final destination for economic migrants from
West Africa. Thus, the fighting also affected the livesof around 8,000 migrants, refugees and asylum seekers

GRID
2019

held in detention centres in the city. Humanitarian accessto the areas affected by conflict was severely restricted,
leaving thousands of detainees without food or water
for several days.107 Hundreds more were evacuated tosafer locations or simply released and left to find theirown way to safety through the conflict zone. Others
were pulled out of the detention centres by militias,
who then forced them to take part in the hostilities.108
The coastal city of Derna has been under siege by the
Libyan National Army (LNA), linked to the authorities inthe east of the country, since July 2017. It was controlled
by a coalition of local fighters and Islamists known as
the Derna Shura Council, and was the only city in theeast resisting LNA control.109 A renewed offensive totake the city began in May 2018 and heavy fighting andshelling continued into June, triggering almost 24,000
new displacements. Electricity and water supplies
were cut and the provision of basic services disrupted.
Markets ran short of food and non-food items, andonly one hospital was left working at severely reduced
capacity. Entry points to the city were initially closed,
hindering the delivery of life-saving assistance, but theauthorities opened a humanitarian corridor and began
allowing families to leave the city at the end of May.110
Conflict in southern city of Sebha erupts periodicallybetween the Tebu and Awlad Suleiman tribes over thecontrol of smuggling and trafficking routes, and fighting
in 2018 triggered almost 7,000 new displacements.
Those who fled the southern and eastern districts ofthe city were initially housed in schools that were on
holiday, but they have since been moved on to allow
them to reopen.111 Civilians’ freedom of movement wasalso restricted and severe shortages of basic goods andservices were reported.112 Very few reports mentioned
the plight of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, but
given that Sebha was named the world’s human traf-

27
ficking capital last year, they are very likely to have been
affected. Assessments undertaken in Sebha’s districts
report the presence of refugees and migrants in every
assessed area.113
The violence in Sebha was further testament to thegovernment’s lack of control over southern Libya. The
region’s porous borders aggravate insecurity, allowing
foreign armed groups to establish safe havens in thearea, and facilitate the trafficking of people heading
north. The combination of mounting lawlessness anddeteriorating basic services mean conditions are dire formany residents in the south, including the displaced.114
IDPs in the area are in desperate need of adequate
shelter, food and basic household items, but prevailinginsecurity across the south means humanitarian accessis sporadic at best.115
The internationally recognized government in Tripoli
adopted the first package of economic reforms sincethe 2011 fall of Muammar Gaddafi in September 2018,
but fighting over resources is likely to remain a central

Members of the Tawergha ethnic
minority gather their belongings after
their homes were demolished by a local
militia near Tripoli. Photo © UNHCR/
Tarik Argaz, August 2018

feature of the country’s crisis, particularly in coastal andurban areas where economic activity is concentrated.116
The government also recognises the importance ofimproving security in the south, but the vastness of theterritory makes doing so a daunting task with relatively
little promise of a political dividend.117
There is hope that presidential and parliamentaryelections due to take place in 2019 may break Libya’s
political gridlock. Yet divisions remain between therival governments in the east and west, and national
reconciliation conferences have been delayed, leaving
the way open for fighting to continue.118 It will likely besome time before the country is safe, for Libyans andfor those migrants and refugees who continue to passthrough the country.