34

SOUTH ASIA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
India

2,844,000

Afghanistan

Conflict 544,000
Disasters 3,303,000
13.8% of the global total

807,000

Sri Lanka

101,100

Bangladesh

78,300

Nepal 12,000

Large-scale displacement in South Asia was once again
triggered by a series of floods, storms and droughts aswell as unresolved conflicts and violence. Countries inthe region continue to struggle with managing seasonal
and recurring weather-related extreme events, resulting
in more than 3.3 million new displacements. In addition
to tropical storms and floods in India and Pakistan, themonsoon season took a heavy toll in Bangladesh andSri Lanka as did drought in Afghanistan. New waves ofconflict and violence in India and Pakistan and ongoingfighting in Afghanistan triggered around 544,000 new
displacements.
India accounted for most of the region’s new displacements. Its overall total of 2.8 million was among thehighest in the world, of which nearly 2.7 million weretriggered by disasters across 15 states. The country wasparticularly hard-hit by the monsoon season, whenflooding devastated the south-western state of Kerala.156
Almost 1.5 million new displacements were recorded inKerala in what were described as the worst floods in acentury. Cyclone Titli struck Orissa and Andhra Pradesh
states in October, triggering 400,000 new displacements,and cyclone Gaja hit Tamil Nadu in November, triggering
249,000.157
More than 160,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in Indian-controlled
Kashmir. Communal violence in Kashmir and West Bengal
cast violence in Maharashtra and political violence inTripura also triggered small-scale displacement (see Indiaspotlight, p.38).

GRID
2019

Years of successive dry spells and below average rainfall in
Afghanistan led to drought conditions in 2018, particularly in the rural north-west of the country. More than
371,000 new displacements were recorded as people’slivelihoods became unviable and their living conditions
untenable. Conflict triggered roughly the same number,leaving around 2.6 million people living in displacement
as of the end of the year, one of the highest figures in
the world (see Afghanistan spotlight, p.36).
Afghanistan’s four-decade conflict involves not only thecountry’s military, international forces, the Taliban andISIL, but also various ethnic, communal and Islamist militias.158 Exact numbers are hard to come by, but military
operations by the government triggered a significant
portion of the new conflict displacements recorded, witha total of 372,000.
Intercommunal violence triggered localised, small-scale
displacement in neighbouring Pakistan, but this is not
systematically reported on, so the figure of 1,800 is likely
to be a significant underestimate. Numbers are not available for Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, but frequent ceasefire violations and cross-border shelling in 2018 strongly
suggest that displacement must have taken place. Fordisasters, more than 2,100 new displacements wererecorded, mainly triggered by localised floods.
The monsoon season also brought significant flooding
to both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Around 75,000
new displacements were recorded in Sri Lanka in thesecond half of May, and nearly 16,000 in the first35

While relatively few new displacements associated withfloods were recorded in Bangladesh in 2018, IDMC’s
flood displacement risk model shows that the country
has the third-highest flood displacement risk in the world.
Around 1.8 million people are likely to be displaced at
any given year in the future, with more than 96 per centof the risk concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas(see Part 3).

Urban perspectives
Rural to urban migration and natural population growthin the region’s towns and cities give South Asia one of
the highest annual urbanisation rates in the world at 2.5
per cent.159 This does not, however, equate with economicgrowth and higher levels of human development.160 Major
cities such as Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata in India, Dhaka
in Bangladesh and Karachi in Pakistan are among themost densely populated in the world, but high numbersof people live in informal settlements in peri-urban areasthat lack adequate housing, infrastructure and services.161
Recent data shows 30 per cent of the urban population
across the region as living in informal settlements.162
Urban infrastructure development is unable to keepup with the pace of population growth in the region.
In countries such as India, complex political structures,
capacity gaps, corruption and funding shortfalls, hamper
infrastructure development as well as basic service
provision.163 Such challenges generate widespread andgrowing socioeconomic inequality.164
Many urban plans are devised without involving locals indecision-making, and new investments in infrastructure
and the upgrade of informal settlements have the potential to push the most vulnerable into displacement andisolate them from their livelihoods.165 That said, in-situ
initiatives to upgrade informal and unserved settlements
in several Indian cities have been effective in reducing therisk of evictions and displacement.166
As in the rest of the world, the true scale of urban internal
displacement in South Asia is essentially unknown, whichmakes it difficult to estimate how the phenomenon iscontributing to urbanisation trends. The evidence thatis available, however, suggests that disasters, climatechange impacts and conflict trigger displacement both toand within urban areas. A study conducted in Bangladesh
suggests that a significant proportion of people who live
in informal urban settlements may have been displacedfrom rural areas by riverbank erosion, a major hazard in
the country, projected to increase in the coming years.167
IDPs are also drawn to urban areas by the prospect ofbetter livelihood and income-generating opportunities.168
Many, however, struggle to adapt and find themselvesliving in deepening poverty. They are also vulnerable tosecondary displacement triggered by urban disasters andevictions.169
The Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, has been identified as
the country’s main destination for people fleeing disasters
and climate change impacts, and local authorities havebeen unable to cope with the influx. New approaches
to develop the potential of secondary cities to host IDPs,
however, hold the promise of alternative durable solutions
and a reduction in the risk of repeated displacement.170
People who flee to urban areas to escape conflict facesimilar challenges to those displaced by disasters. IDPs
in the Afghan capital of Kabul struggle to secure tenure
over adequate housing, which puts them at constantrisk of secondary displacement, mainly in the form ofevictions. Kabul’s IDPs tend to have significant protection concerns and often live in sub-standard housing in
marginalised areas of the city.171 Policy initiatives such a
2006 white paper on tenure security and communitybased upgrading and a 2013 policy on the upgradingof informal settlements point in the right direction, butadoption and implementation remain a challenge.172
South Asia’s high urbanisation rate presents both major
challenges and opportunities.173 The meaningful participation and engagement of local communities in urban
planning and development will be paramount if theregion is to meet sustainable development targets underinternational frameworks and reduce the risk of future
displacement.174

PART 1

half of October, though the latter figure is likely to beconservative. Riverine floods in Bangladesh triggered
12,000 new displacements in Moulvibazar district andriverbank erosion around 44,000 in Shariatpur, mainlyin September. Flooding was also reported in Cox’s Bazar
district, which is currently home to hundreds of thousandsof Rohingya refugees who have fled violence in Myanmar.

36SPOTLIGHT

AFGHANISTAN
Drought displaced as many as
conflict
Afghanistan has been plagued by four decades ofarmed conflict, undermining development efforts acrossthe country and triggering displacement every year.
In 2018, drought added to the existing crisis and triggered more than 371,000 new displacements, a similar
number to those associated with conflict. After four
years of below average rainfall in the north-western
provinces of Badghis, Ghor and Herat, the situation
became critical as a lack of rain and snow melt caused
crops to fail and livestock to perish. Large numbers ofpeople began to move from rural to urban areas in April,in search of livelihood opportunities, basic services andhumanitarian aid.
In reality, the drivers of displacement in Afghanistan
are intertwined. The impact of the drought was thefinal straw for many families who had been living inrural areas underserviced after years of armed conflict.
Their resources and coping mechanisms had beeneroded over time, and 2018 marked a tipping point
when conditions became unbearable, leading to thecountry’s largest disaster-related displacement in at leasta decade.
North-west Afghanistan is primarily rural, and thedrought has decimated the livelihoods of tens of thousands of households dependent on livestock and rainfed agriculture.175 Eighty-four per cent of landowners
surveyed in IDPs’ areas of origin said production wasdown by half compared with 2017. Those who owned
livestock said they had lost almost all of their poultry,
camels and horses and 90 per cent of their large andsmall ruminants. Respondents also said the lack of water
for domestic use was a significant concern. Rain-filled
reservoirs are used not only for irrigation but also for
drinking water, because groundwater from hand pumps
and wells is unpotable.
As of September 2018, more than 250,000 IDPs wereliving in scattered informal camps on the outskirts of
Qala-e-Naw and Herat, the capitals of Badghis andGRID
2019

Herat provinces, respectively.176 Conditions in the camps
are deplorable and protection issues rife. Shelters are
overcrowded and provide little privacy, and with theonset of winter and sub-zero temperatures members ofdifferent families were huddled together in one tent inan effort to keep warm. People are destitute and haveresorted to harmful coping mechanisms, including childlabour and early marriage. There were 161 reported
cases of child marriage in Herat and Badghis provinces
between July and October 2018.177
There is a misconception that people who flee slowonset disasters have time to pack their belongings andorganise their departure, putting them in a better position than those displaced by sudden-onset disasters orconflict. The situation in Afghanistan disproves this.
People fleeing the drought had already sold many of
their assets and left their areas of origin with almost
nothing.
Humanitarian response teams in the country have extensive experience in dealing with displacement triggeredby conflict, which affects the entire country but tends
to be localised and relatively small-scale. Their usual
response mechanisms have not been able to cope withthe mass movements concentrated in the north-westof the country associated with the drought. Somehumanitarians may also have been influenced by thereluctance of host communities and authorities to allow
IDPs to settle in their areas, due in part to ethnic andtribal differences, but also security concerns; this caused
delays in the initial response to the displaced. Given thatthe drought has predominantly affected areas that arecontested or beyond government control, authorities
fear the new arrivals may include members of non-statearmed groups.
The response has been further complicated by thefact that people living in protracted displacement

37
As winter approached in
Afghanistan, many families
displaced by drought andconflict were still living in
makeshift tents. Photo:
NRC/Enayatullah Azad,
November 2018and vulnerable host community members have set upmakeshift shelters among the new IDPs in an attempt
to secure humanitarian assistance, making it challenging for humanitarians to target the most vulnerable recently displaced households. As drought is aslow-onset phenomenon, it is also unclear who has theresponsibility to respond: at the outset of the droughtinduced displacement crisis, there was much debate
about which agencies had the mandate to respond,with many humanitarian agencies suggesting that theemphasis of the response should be on developmentin the places of origin, and thereby fall to development
agencies rather than humanitarians.
Despite the reticence of local authorities and hosts tolet IDPs settle, many intend to stay. Only about one percent of IDPs interviewed in Herat and eight per cent inBadghis said they would consider an assisted voluntary return, and 71 per cent in Herat said they would
not consider returning regardless of the assistance onoffer.178 They cite factors such as insecurity, lack of foodand livelihoods, and poor access to water and basic
services as reasons for not wanting to return to theirplaces of origin.179

This raises the question of how to secure suitable, longterm housing, land and livelihoods for people displacedby the drought.180 Most have pitched their shelters on
private land where landlords only grudgingly accept
their presence, which leaves them vulnerable to eviction.
The Afghan Land Authority has signed a memorandumof understanding with the Ministry of Refugees andRepatriation to allocate state-owned land to IDPs forfive years, but this is on the assumption that they will
eventually return to their areas of origin so does notconstitute a durable solution.
The Afghan government is already struggling to facilitate
durable solutions for the 2.6 million people displaced byconflict in the country. Strong political will and substantial support from the international community will beneeded to make real progress towards durable solutions for those displaced by conflict and drought in thecountry.181

38
SPOTLIGHT

INDIA
Monsoon and conflict displaced
millions
India is not unfamiliar with heavy monsoon rains andfloods, but the 2018 season was particularly intense.
Above average rainfall triggered flooding and landslides nationwide between June and August. Tropicalcyclones also struck the country’s east coast between
October and December, severely damaging homes andaffecting millions of people in the states of Andhra
Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and Puducherry territory. Disasters triggered as many as 2.7 million new
displacements during the year, nearly double the figurefor 2017. The poverty and vulnerability of many of thehouseholds affected was a significant factor in aggravating the losses, damage and displacement caused.
The monsoon season was the world’s second largest
disaster displacement event in 2018 after typhoon
Mangkhut, triggering almost two million displacements
between May and October. The impacts were widespread, but most media attention focussed on the stateof Kerala, where severe flooding in 13 out of 14 districts
was described as the worst in a century.182
The Kerala floods accounted for more than half ofIndia’s new displacements in 2018. As many as 1.5
million people were recorded as displaced in about
5,600 camps set up by the authorities. That figure is asignificant underestimate of the overall scale of displacement, given that an unknown number of IDPs stayedwith friends and family or in rented accommodation.183
By the end of the monsoon season, as many as 2,000
homes had been destroyed and as many as 22,000
damaged, hampering return for many people.184
Three cyclones struck India’s eastern seaboard during
the year. Cyclone Titli triggered around 300,000 preemptive evacuations in Odisha and around 100,000
displacements in Andhra Pradesh in October, the latter
figure calculated using housing destruction as a proxy.
Communities living in affected coastal areas tended tolive in mud and bamboo homes or dwellings with corrugated tin sheets, which were unable to withstand theGRID
2019

storm. When cyclone Phethai hit two months later, many
were still living in damaged homes.185 Phethai triggered
as many as 32,000 displacements in the two states inDecember. Cyclone Gaja triggered 249,000 displacements in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in November.
It also destroyed homes and livelihoods, potentiallyhindering return for many of those displaced.186
Though dwarfed in scale, conflict also triggered
displacement in India in 2018. Cross-border shelling
led to more than 160,000 displacements in Indiancontrolled Kashmir.187 Heavy fire from Pakistani forces
triggered about 54,000 in January, when people
deserted a number of border villages, and as manyas 100,000 from Jammu, Samba and Kathua districtsin May.188 The intensity of cross-border shelling andsubsequent displacement has increased in recent years,
but it repeats past patterns of short-term but recurring
movements that disrupt daily life, education and theprovision of other basic services.189
The events of 2018 serve as a reminder that displacement is an everyday reality in India, and one which has
the potential to drag down the country’s emerging
economy if measures to reduce displacement risk are
not taken. The authorities have made commendable
efforts in improving early warning and disaster management systems, but they continue to face challenges
when it comes to preventing and responding to crises.
The last 12 months also showed that poverty andvulnerability, which are key drivers of risk, need to bebetter addressed. Given ever more frequent and intense
weather events and continuing tensions along the country’s disputed border with Pakistan, these challenges
may only get more severe in the future.