4PART 1

THE GLOBALDISPLACEMENTLANDSCAPE

A view of the IDP settlementin Badghis, Afghanistan.
There are thousands ofmakeshift homes spread
between mountain hills on
the outskirts of Qala-i-naw
city. Photo: NRC/Enayatullah
Azad, November 2018

GRID
2019

5

Robust information on all of these dimensions is needed
to form an evidence base for the decisions and actionsof policymakers, planners and responders working toprovide durable solutions to IDPs and reduce the risk
of future displacement.

4soBurkina Fa

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Myan
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Conﬂict andviolence

Disasters

Total newdisplacements:
10.8 million

Total newdisplacements:
17.2 millionbmlo
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Figure 3: Highest number of new displacements in 2018
(50 countries and territories)

China

New displacements in millions
5

These are the best estimates of a complex and dynamic
global phenomenon that manifests in significantly
different ways across countries and situations. The
severity and duration of displacement are not captured,MD

and the need for a more nuanced understanding of
its drivers and impacts are discussed throughout thereport.

Philippines

There were 28 million new displacements associatedwith disasters and conflict recorded in 2018 across 148
countries and territories. Nine out of the ten worstaffected countries accounted for more than a million
new displacements each. Several countries such as
Ethiopia, Nigeria and Afghanistan, were affectedby displacement associated with both conflict and disasters. Many people who fled disasters in countries suchas Syria, Somalia, Iraq and Yemen, had already been
displaced by conflict.

PART 1

INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN 2018:
NEW DISPLACEMENTS

6
Figure 4: New displacements in 2018: Breakdown forconflict, violence and disasters

28m

10.8m

438,000

Total newdisplacements
in 2018

Total newdisplacements(conflict)

4.9m

Armed
conflict*

Other
255,000
252,000
Violence(criminal)*

995,000

NEW DISPLACEMENT BY
CONFLICT, VIOLENCE AND
DISASTERS

4.2m

Violence(political)*Violence(communal)** For defintions see Glossary p.105

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),
Syria, Somalia, Central African Republic (CAR) andAfghanistan were again among the countries withthe highest number of new displacements associatedwith conflict. New waves of conflict and violence triggered displacement in Nigeria and Cameroon, thatwere among the ten worst-affected countries globally.
Ethiopia had the highest figure, with 2.9 million new
displacements, a considerable increase that influenced
global trends.

NEW
DISPLACEMENTS(CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE)
2.9m

1.8m

1.6m

Almost 1,600 disaster events triggered new displacements during the year, most of them associated withweather-related hazards. Storms, particularly tropical
578,000

Ethiopia

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2019

DRC

Syria

Sixty-one per cent of the new displacements recorded
in 2018, or 17.2 million, were triggered by disasters,and 39 per cent, or 10.8 million, by conflict. Displacement associated with communal violence increased
considerably compared with 2017. Criminal violence also
continued to trigger displacement but numbers should
be considered underestimates.

Somalia

541,000

Nigeria

510,000

CAR

459,000

372,000

321,000

252,000

Cameroon Afghanistan

South
Sudan

Yemen

Figure 5: Ten countries with most new displacements associated with conflict and violence in 2018

915,0007

186,000

PART 1

Earthquakes

Volcanic
eruptions
28,000

1.1m

17.2m

Dry mass
movement

Geophysical

1,000
Mass
movement

Total newdisplacements(disasters)

16.1m

5.4m

Weather
related

24,000Extremetemperatures

Floods

165,000
Landslides

424,000

765,000
764,000

9.3m

1.4m

StormsWildfires
Other storms
Droughts
cyclones, accounted for the majority, a reminder of theimportance of reducing the risks associated with vulnerability and exposure to climate change. Geophysicalevents including earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic
eruptions triggered 1.1 million new displacements, aconsiderable increase compared with 2017.

NEW
DISPLACEMENTS(DISASTERS)

7.9m
Cyclones,
hurricanes,
typhoons

The Philippines, China and India between themaccounted for about 60 per cent of all new displacements associated with disasters. Many were preemptive evacuations of people living in high-risk areas,highlighting the unmitigated exposure of people andassets. Vulnerability also played a key role in preventing
people from returning and recovering from the impacts
of disasters in many countries.

3.8m

3.8m

China

Philippines

2.7m

1.2m
853,000

298,000

336,000

MyanmarKenya

547,000

613,000

Afghanistan Somalia

Nigeria

435,000

Indonesia

UnitedStatesIndia

Figure 6: Ten countries with most new displacements associated with disasters in 2018

8

REGIONAL OVERVIEWS
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East were disproportionally affected by displacement associated withconflict in 2018, and new waves were also recorded inSouth Asia. Figures for the Americas mirrored those ofprevious years. Displacement associated with disasters
mainly affected East Asia and Pacific, and South Asia,
both regions with high levels of population exposureand vulnerability to hazards. Sub-Saharan Africa andthe Americas were relatively lightly affected, but floods
and storms still triggered millions of new displacements.
This section presents data, contextual analysis and urban
perspectives by region. Detailed analysis is presented in
the form of country spotlights.9

Conflict and violence: New displacement by region

Disasters: New displacement by region

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2019

9
PART 1SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
Ethiopia

3,191,000

DRC

Conflict 7,446,000
Disasters 2,611,000
36% of the global total

1,921,000

Nigeria

1,154,000

Somalia

1,125,000

CAR

519,300

Sub-Saharan Africa experienced ongoing as well as new
conflict and violence throughout 2018 and in addition,
suffered droughts, floods and storms that forced millions
of people to flee their homes. Around 7.4 million new
displacements associated with conflict and violence and2.6 million associated with disasters were recorded,
more than any other region and accounting for 36 percent of all displacements worldwide. Ethiopia, DRC,
Nigeria, Somalia and CAR were the countries worst
affected. Around 16.5 million people were living ininternal displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa as a resultof conflict as of the end of the year. This figure once
again shows that protracted displacement is a significant issue for many countries.
Against a backdrop of important and many positive
political changes, 2.9 million new displacements associated with conflict were recorded in Ethiopia, thehighest figure in the world and four times as many asin 2017. Old conflicts became more entrenched andnew conflicts escalated along various state borders,
prompting the government to establish a new Ministryof Peace in response to the increasing violence (seeEthiopia spotlight, p.14).10 Disasters also triggered
296,000 new displacements, many of them associatedwith flooding in the Somali region.11
More than 1.8 million new displacements associatedwith conflict were recorded in DRC, primarily in Northand South Kivu, Tanganyika and Kasai Central provinces,where conflict and insecurity continued. The provinceof Ituri had been embroiled in conflict between 1999
and 2007 and had since been relatively peaceful, butintercommunal violence reignited in December 2017,leading to 60 deaths and more than 576,000 new
displacements. What rekindled the conflict is unclear,but a national political crisis, the disintegration of stateauthority and the increasing activity of politically-motivated militias may all have been contributing factors.12
The western province of Mai-Ndombe also experienced
an outbreak of intercommunal violence between 16
and 18 December 2018, when at least 535 people were
killed in a massacre and around 12,000 people displaced
from the town of Yumbi.13
More than three million people were thought to be living
in internal displacement as of the end of 2018 in DRC,a highly conservative figure that does not capture thewhole country. There are hopes that presidential elections that took place on 30 December after a two-year
delay will help to stabilise the political situation.14
More than 578,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in Somalia, thehighest figure in a decade and the result of three main
factors. Evictions from urban centres, mainly of IDPs,
accounted for about 44 per cent of the figure. Driven bya lack of adequate housing and informal tenure agreements in increasingly crowded areas, the number ofevictions reached a record high.15 Tensions between
Somaliland and Puntland over the disputed regions ofSool and Sanaag also flared, and Al Shabaab fighters
clashed with government and African Union troops,
particularly in the southern regions of Middle and Lower
Shabelle.16

10
In addition, around 547,000 new displacements associated with disasters were recorded in Somalia. Almost
half of the figure, or 249,000, were associated withdrought, mainly in the southern regions of Bay, Lower
Shabelle and Bakool, as people moved from rural areas
in search of water and livelihood opportunities. Above
average rainfall also caused flooding in southern andcentral areas of the country during the rainy season in
April and May, triggering around 289,000 new displacements. Some families in remote villages were cut off
from the rest of the country for months, leaving themin particularly vulnerable conditions.17
Conflict and violence in the north-eastern and Middle
Belt regions of Nigeria triggered 541,000 new displacements in 2018, and floods inundated 80 per cent of thecountry, triggering 600,000. Clashes between northernherders and southern farmers competing for scarce
resources have taken place in Middle Belt since 2014,
but the violence escalated significantly last year, triggering 200,000 new displacements. Whole villages andherder settlements were burnt down and hundreds ofpeople were killed, making the conflict more deadly
than the Boko Haram insurgency.18
Fighting between the government and armed opposition groups in the north-east of the country entered
its tenth year, triggering 341,000 new displacements.
Despite the ongoing insecurity, the government insiststhat Boko Haram is near defeat and has been promoting
returns to some parts of the north-east. At least 311,000
IDPs were recorded as having returned in 2018, alongwith more than 30,000 Nigerian refugees returningfrom Cameroon.19 Based on data on housing conditionsof returnees, however, at least 86,000 people returned
to partially damaged housing or makeshift shelters.
Around two million people were thought to be living
in displacement as a result of conflict as of the end theyear (Nigeria spotlight, p.18).
Other countries in the Lake Chad Basin also continued tobe affected by the Boko Haram insurgency, with morethan 52,000 new displacements recorded in Niger and22,000 in Cameroon. There was not enough reliable
information to compile an estimate for new displacements for Chad for 2018, but displacement is thought
to be ongoing in the country.
The impact of Boko Haram in Cameroon was overshadowed by 437,000 new displacements in the Northwest
and Southwest regions, where tensions over govern-

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ment moves to impose French on the anglophone population that had been simmering since 2016 erupted into
armed conflict between separatists and the military(Cameroon spotlight, p.16).
Continued fighting between armed groups in CAR
triggered 510,000 new displacements in 2018, leavingaround 641,000 people living in internal displacement asof the end of the year. Clashes in Ouham Pende, Ouaka
and Haut-Kotto prefectures triggered the majority ofthe displacement, including in the urban centres of
Bambari and Bria. The government signed a peace deal
with 14 armed factions in February 2019, raising hopesthat levels of violence and displacement would decreasein the future.
In South Sudan, more than 321,000 new displacements associated with conflict were recorded during theyear, leaving almost 1.9 million people living in internal
displacement as of December. The two main parties tothe conflict signed a peace deal in September 2018, butthere was no immediate reduction in violence.20
Clashes in neighbouring Sudan between the government and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army(SLM/A) triggered 41,000 new displacements in theJebel Marra mountains at the intersection between
South, North and Central Darfur. Torrential rains andlandslides also triggered 420 new displacements in thesame area in early September.21 SLM/A declared a unilateral three-month ceasefire the same month to allow
humanitarian access to those affected.22
Around 5,600 returns to the five states that make up
the Darfur region were recorded in 2018, but a lack of
information about people’s circumstances and reportsof returnees being attacked raised serious questions
about their sustainability.23 The Sudanese governmentis also working with the international community toconvert a number of displacement camps into residential
areas, leading to IDPs’ de facto local integration –a
positive move though the outcome remains to be seen.24
Around 126,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in Mali, 42,000 in
Burkina Faso, 5,000 in Ghana, 3,500 in Benin and
3,000 in Sierra Leone, between them accounting
for a significant increase in the overall figure for West
Africa compared to 2017. Inter-communal clashes in
Mali between Fulani herders and Dogon and Bambara
farmers escalated during the year, and intra-community

11PART 1

Internally displaced people return to theirhomes in Kipese, a small town situated in
North Kivu province, which was affectedby armed conflict in May 2018. Photo:
NRC/Martin Lukongo, July 2018

violence among the Fulani and attacks by extremistgroups added to the instability. Many villages werelooted and torched, making returns more challenging. Armed Islamist groups have increased theirpresence in Burkina Faso since 2016, prompting counterterrorism operations in 2017 and 2018 that led tonumerous allegations of extrajudicial killings, arbitraryarrests and the abuse of suspects in custody.25
Small to medium-scale disasters affected many countries in the region in 2018, events that tend not toreceive enough attention or resources despite theirsevere impacts on people and local economies. Around
336,000 new displacements were recorded in Kenya
as heavy rains led to flooding in all of the country’s 47
counties. Thousands of hectares of farmland were inundated and livestock killed, threatening the livelihoods ofpastoralists and farmers alike.26 At least six dams burst,
triggering around 12,000 new displacements. Flooding
also led to 158,000 new displacements in Uganda,

121,000 in Sudan, 56,000 in Ghana, 15,000 in Liberia
and 3,000 in Côte d’Ivoire.
These significant levels of displacement occurred despite
policy progress in the region. 2019 marks the tenthanniversary of the African Union Convention for theProtection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons
in Africa.27 Also known as the Kampala Convention, itis the world’s only legally binding regional instrument
on internal displacement. Renewed commitment to its
provisions on the part of African Union member statesis needed, however, given that new and protracted
displacement continue to be a major challenge. Niger
should be commended for becoming the first country toincorporate the convention into its domestic legislation,
when parliament voted unanimously to adopt a nationallaw on internal displacement in December 2018.28

12

Urban perspectives
Internal displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa takes
place against the backdrop of unprecedented urbanisation. The region is still substantially rural with 40
per cent of its population living in cities, but this is set
to change considerably in the coming years.29 African
cities are among the fastest growing in the world andsome, including Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Kampala
in Uganda, Abuja in Nigeria, Ouagadougou in Burkina
Faso and Bamako in Mali, are expected to double insize by 2035.30
The rapid and unplanned nature of much of this urbanisation has the potential to aggravate existing challenges and create new ones. Many of the region’s urban
dwellers have little or no access to water and sanitation.31 Millions of people live in inadequate housing inovercrowded, underserved and marginalised neighbourhoods, in conditions of high exposure and vulnerability
to hazards and displacement risk.32 Some cities are also
trying to cope with significant influxes of IDPs fromrural areas.
Urban floods are a major challenge. Six of the tenlargest flooding events that triggered displacement in2018 were in Sub-Saharan Africa, and urban areas bore
the brunt of the impacts. Thousands of people weredisplaced during the rainy season in cities including
Beledweyne in Somalia and Lagos in Nigeria. IDMC’s
flood displacement risk model suggests that floods arelikely to displace on average 2.7 million people in theregion at any given year in the future, two-thirds ofthem in urban and peri-urban areas.
When crises hit, local authorities often struggle torespond to the needs of those affected, including IDPs.33
They tend to be understaffed and underfunded, andrely on resources provided by national authorities andin some cases the international humanitarian community. Response capacity also varies between smaller andlarger cities, an issue that needs to be considered infuture interventions and investments that aim to tackle
the challenges associated with urban displacement.34
The municipal governments of Maiduguri in Nigeria andMogadishu in Somalia have taken some positive steps
to this end. IDPs in both cities face specific vulnerabilities related to their displacement, including access toemployment and livelihoods and the risk of forced evic-

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tions. In response, the local government in Maiduguri
has collaborated with Nigeria’s central bank to set up
entrepreneurship centres for unemployed young people
and IDPs. In Mogadishu, the Banadir regional authority
has worked with the UN and the private sector to create
a durable solutions unit to support employment creationand entrepreneurship programmes for IDPs.35
Such initiatives serve as examples to other local governments of their potential to facilitate durable solutions.
Urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to playa major role in shaping the region’s development. It has
the potential to bring significant social and economic
benefits, including alleviating poverty and inequality
and reducing the risks and impacts of displacement.36
To do so, the role of local authorities must be leveraged.

13PART 1

Somali families that fled conflict and drought live in crowded and unhealthy
conditions in a shelter camp in Kismayo in southern Somalia. With shelters madeonly of plastic, cloth and sticks, families here are vulnerable to flooding andinsecurity. Photo: NRC/Jepsen, February 2019

14
SPOTLIGHTETHIOPIA
New waves of conflict cause
unprecedented displacement
Ethiopia had the highest number of new internal
displacements associated with conflict worldwide in
2018. The country’s crisis has been deepening steadily
since 2016, but conflict and intercommunal violence
escalated significantly and spread to new areas lastyear, triggering almost 2.9 million new displacements,
four times the figure for 2017. Conflict and displacement were recorded along three of the Oromia region’sborders, with the Southern Nations, Nationalities andPeoples’ (SNNP) region in the south-west, the Benishangul-Gumuz region in the north-west and the Somali
region in the east. Urban centres were also affected,
including Addis Ababa and Jijiga, the capital of theSomali region.37
This unprecedented rise in new displacement comesagainst the backdrop of significant political change inthe country, with a new prime minister taking powerin April 2018. The new government ended the country’s state of emergency, released political prisoners
and forged a peace deal with Eritrea.38 It has also
been praised for abandoning past practices including
the excessive use of force to curb protests and for its
cooperation with aid agencies in responding to acutehumanitarian needs. By doing so the new government
has acknowledged the presence of conflict-induced
IDPs within its border. A crucial step towards addressing
their plight.39
After two decades of relative calm, the most significant
displacement was triggered by inter-communal violence
between the Guji and Gedeo ethnic groups that erupted
in April and again in June in the West Guji zone ofOromia and the Gedeo zone of SNNP. Underlying
ethnic tensions were aggravated by competition forland and scarce resources.40 The conflict left hundreds ofthousands of people sheltering in overcrowded collective centres, where humanitarian agencies struggled
to provide food, health, water and sanitation for the
rapidly growing displaced population. The government
collaborated with the agencies, who had no previous

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presence in the south of the country, to set up andcoordinate a large-scale response.41
Ethnic violence also broke out between Oromos,
Amharas and Gumuz in Benishangul Gumuz in Octoberfollowing the killing of three local police officers.42
Around 62,000 new displacements were recorded
between October and December. Humanitarian needs
were acute, but insecurity hampered agencies’ accessand only one aid delivery was reported.43
Fighting and displacement that began along theborder between the Oromia and Somali regions in2017 continued unabated last year. Conflict over the
disputed border was aggravated by drought, which
increased competition for scarce resources, leading to
the displacement of ethnic Oromos living in the Somali
region and ethnic Somalis living in Oromia. Hundreds ofthousands of new displacements were recorded. Heavy
fighting in the Oromo town of Moyale between theSomali Garreh and Oromi Borenas sub-clans triggeredaround 80,000 new displacements in two weeks in
December. The town also suffered significant damage.
Its hospital was destroyed and its shops and bankslooted.44
Inter-communal violence in Jijiga, a previously calm andvibrant city, led to the displacement of 140,000 people
in just a few days in August, of whom 35,000 remainedin the city and sheltered in and around churches. Jijiga
was inaccessible for several weeks as a result of the insecurity, but economic activity had resumed by the middleof the month and many people returned once the situation had stabilised.45 Clashes on the outskirts of Addis

15

Displaced women attending
a focus group discussion on
beneficiary satisfaction in Guji
Zone, Oromia Region. Photo:
Rikka Tupaz / UN Migration
Agency (IOM) 2017

Ababa in September, when Oromo youth flocked tothe capital to welcome Oromo Liberation Front fighters
returning from Eritrea, displaced 15,000 people.46
Ethiopia’s new government has put a number of measures in place in response to the country’s displacement
crisis, including peace-building activities to promote
voluntary returns and programmes to support those
who prefer to integrate into their host communities orsettle elsewhere.47 A minister for peace has also been
appointed. A durable solutions strategy for the Somali
region was developed in 2017 in line with the Guiding
Principles and the Kampala Convention, a regional
treaty on IDPs’ protection and assistance.48

The government has been criticised, however, forencouraging premature returns to regions not yet safeand for not doing enough to protect civilians.49 Nor
has Ethiopia ratified the Kampala Convention yet. In
light of the country’s growing internal displacement
crisis and in the spirit of improving policies to tackle thephenomenon, the tenth anniversary of the convention’s
adoption in 2019 presents an ideal opportunity to do so.

16
SPOTLIGHTCAMEROONA deepening but neglected crisis
Boko Haram’s regional insurgency continued to cause
displacement in Cameroon in 2018, but events in the
Far North region were all but eclipsed by an internal
conflict that erupted in the Northwest and Southwest
regions, home to the country’s anglophone minority.
A protest movement that began in 2016 escalated into
fighting between armed separatists and the country’s
military, triggering around 437,000 new displacements
during the year. Another 30,000 people fled acrossthe border into Nigeria.

The Northwest and Southwest regions, with a population of four million people, have long been marginalised
and have experienced occasional outbreaks of violenceas the government suppressed protests. The latest
violence has its roots in a strike declared by lawyers’ andteachers’ trade unions over the government’s efforts toimpose French on the two sectors. Cameroon’s security
forces launched a violent crackdown on protests insupport of the strike, and numerous anglophone activists were arrested, including 47 in Nigeria.
This repression in turn led elements of the opposition
to take up arms, and separatist groups calling for an
independent Ambazonia Republic have engaged inarmed confrontation with the military since January
2018. The government has responded with full-blown
counterinsurgency operations. It has been accused ofengaging in extrajudicial executions, excessive use offorce, the torture and ill-treatment of suspected separatists and other detainees and the burning of homes
and property.50
Military operations have been recorded in more than 100
villages in the Southwest and Northwest regions since
October 2017.51 Most if not all of the inhabitants of thevillages targeted have fled, and around 80 per cent arethought to have sought refuge in the forest, where they
have no access to shelter, water or sanitation.52 Meme
Division in the Southwest region has borne the brunt of
the crisis, producing and hosting the majority of IDPs.

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2019

Education has been severely disrupted. Many schools
shut down as part of the initial protests, and armed
groups have banned them from reopening. They havealso burned some schools down, and threatened others
who did not comply with the ban. Around 42,500 children are thought to be out of school as a result, and thefigure is expected to rise to 311,000 in 2019.53
The insecurity and violence have also underminedpeople’s livelihoods. The majority of the population
depends on agriculture and small-scale trade for aliving, and people’s inability to access their land andmarkets as a result of displacement has led to serious
food shortages.54
Humanitarian needs in both the Southwest and Northwest regions are acute, but the response has been
limited. Instances of new displacements have evenbeen reported in the Ouest and Littoral regions, as theconflict has spilled over into neighbouring regions. The
UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan published in May
2018 called for $15.2 million to reach 160,000 people,
but the number of IDPs and others in need has sincerisen significantly. Very few international agencies arepresent on the ground, and those who are have had
to prioritise the little funding they receive to address
the basic needs of the newly displaced people.55 The

17
response began to gather pace in the second half ofthe year, but by the end of the year, only 40 per centof the requested funding had been secured.56
Education lies at the heart of Cameroon’s new conflict,and the government has continued to enforce Frenchin anglophone schools despite intense and widespread
opposition. Doing so drives the tensions that have triggered violence and displacement. The education sector
has been particularly hard hit, but the response has
been hampered by limited funding and competing
priorities.57 More humanitarian assistance will reducethe impact on those affected, particularly children, but
a political solution to the conflict is key to preventing
further displacement.

Displaced families in northeast Cameroon waiting to receive
emergency aid. Photo: NRC/Philippe Douryan

18
SPOTLIGHT

NIGERIA
Floods and conflict converged todeepen an existing crisis
More than 541,000 new displacements associatedwith conflict and violence were recorded in Nigeria
in 2018, bringing the number of people living in
displacement as of the end of the year to 2.2 million.
Ongoing conflict in north-eastern states and new
conflict between herders and farmers over scarce
resources in the Middle Belt led to 341,000 and
200,000 new displacements, respectively. Thirty-fourof Nigeria’s thirty-six states were also affected byflooding as the banks of the Benue and Niger rivers
burst, triggering 600,000 new displacements andsubmerging thousands of homes.58
Despite official insistence that Boko Haram is close todefeat, attacks by armed opposition groups continued
last year, particularly in the north-eastern states of
Borno, Adamawa and Yobe.59 About 90 per cent of
IDPs, or just over two million, were living in the northeast of the country as of the end of 2018. An estimated832,000 people also continue to live in areas under thecontrol of armed groups in the north-east and remain
inaccessible to aid workers.60 Humanitarian access has
been severely restricted throughout the ten years ofconflict, despite organisations’ efforts to negotiate entry
points.
Over 311,000 movements were reported as returns bydata providers in 2018; however, these are not considered sustainable as IDPs are returning to damaged or
destroyed housing, or are still living in areas plaguedby security risks. The Nigerian government is investingin reconstruction initiatives to promote IDPs’ return.61
In the Bama area of Borno state, it built or renovatedaround 10,000 homes, more than 150 classrooms andmore than 50 hand water pumps. It approved the returnof 120,000 IDPs in March 2018, but armed groups
are still active in the area.62 Concerns about the volatile security situation led the UN and the Borno state
governor to sign a returns policy framework, whichstates that basic services and security must be restored

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2019

before IDPs go back to their areas of origin. As such, it
is an important step toward ensuring safe, sustainable
and dignified returns.63
In the Middle Belt, tensions that had been brewing
for four years between pastoralists from the north of
the region and farmers from the south erupted into
armed conflict in 2018, leading to significant violenceand destruction. Desertification associated with climatechange was a factor, degrading already overstretched
pasture and forcing herders to move south in searchof grazing land. The conflict in the north-east has also
driven herders south. These factors combined withothers in 2018 to inflame tensions. New anti-grazing laws
in Benue state enraged herders, who were pushed intoneighbouring states where they clashed with farmers,
and a culture of impunity for past crimes, including
killings and the destruction of villages, has aggravatedthe situation further by encouraging people to takethe law into their own hands. Only five people havebeen tried and sentenced for killings in the region since2017. The under-reporting of the crisis and the lack ofhumanitarian presence in the area mean that reported
displacement figures are likely to be underestimates.64
The majority of the new displacements associatedwith the Middle Belt conflict were recorded in Benue,
Nasarawa and Plateau states. Local emergency management agencies have been responding to the crisis. For
example, the Plateau State Emergency Management
Agency has been providing food and water to IDPs incamps in the state, but shortages are still reported.65
Camp residents complain of overcrowding and lack ofwater. More than 60 per cent of those displaced in the19Congestion of the Teachers Village camp in Maiduguri,
Borno State resulted in lack of shelter and more than
10,000 internally displaced persons had to be moved toa new site. Photo: IOM/Jorge Galindo, March 2019

region are children, who are out of school.66 There has
been a significant international response to the displacement situation in the north-east, but no significant
international presence is engaged with the unfolding
Middle Belt crisis.67
Nigeria is also highly prone to flooding, which wasparticularly widespread in 2018. Eighty per cent of thecountry was inundated at some point during the year,
and the government declared a state of emergency inthe worst-affected states of Anambra, Delta, Kogi and
Niger.68 Hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land were flooded, harming the livelihoods offarmers who lost crops.69 In urban areas, poor planning and zoning means many residential areas havebeen built on exposed river banks and flood plains. This
combined with poor drainage systems makes homes
highly vulnerable to regular flooding.70 The Nigerian
Red Cross has been at the forefront of the response to
those displaced by the flooding.71

Nigeria has Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest populationand economy, but conflict, disasters and development
projects cause significant displacement each year.72 Thegovernment was presented with a draft national policy
on internal displacement aligned with the Guiding Principles and the Kampala Convention in 2011. Eight years
later, however, it is still to be adopted.73 Designing andimplementing policies to reduce people’s vulnerability
and exposure to displacement and address the needsof those already displaced must be a priority for thegovernment.

20

MIDDLE EAST AND
NORTH AFRICA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
Syria

Conflict 2,137,000
Disasters 214,000
8.4% of the global total

1,676,000

Yemen

270,000

Iraq

219,000

Iran

74,000Libya

70,000

Conflict and violence continued to drive internal displacement in the Middle East and North Africa. More than
2.1 million new displacements represented a drop of
more than 50 per cent on the previous year, but almost
11 million people were living in internal displacement in
the region at the end of the year, accounting for morethan a quarter of the global total. The decrease in new
displacements was mainly the result of the conflicts in
Iraq and Syria winding down as both countries’ armies
consolidated their hold on territory recovered from
Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and other armed
groups. Disasters triggered more than 200,000 new
displacements.
Despite the decline in conflict and displacement in Syria
during 2018, the country’s civil war, in its eighth year,
continued to trigger some of the largest population
movements in the world. More than 1.6 million new
displacements were recorded, the highest number inthe region for the fourth year running. Government
offensives to retake areas of Idlib and Dara’a governorates and the Damascus suburbs led to the majorityof new displacements. The battle for Dara’a triggered
more than 285,000, the largest single displacement
event of the war.
Large-scale returns were also recorded shortly after
each offensive, and these are likely to continue in the
coming months. It will be important to monitor such
movements closely to better understand the conditions to which people are returning (see Syria spotlight, p.24). Heavy rains and flooding, which were

GRID
2019

particularly intense in 2018, displaced as many as 27,000
people in Al Hasakeh, Idlib, Aleppo and Ar Raqqa governorates, all of them IDPs already living in precarious
conditions in camps.
The conflict in Yemen escalated significantly in thesecond half of 2018 as the Saudi-led coalition stepped
up its offensive to take control of Hodeidah port,
which is controlled by the Houthi movement. Residents
began to flee the city pre-emptively in early June, whenfighting appeared imminent, eventually leading to mass
movements. At least 64,000 new displacements could
be verified, but several unvalidated media reports cited
hundreds of thousands of displacements and the true
figure is likely to be much higher. There was subsequently a temporary lull in the fighting, but it escalated
again in October and November, raising serious humanitarian concerns.
The parties to the conflict met in Stockholm in December
and agreed to mutually redeploy their forces, swap
prisoners and discuss de-escalation along the Taiz
frontline.74 Many details of the agreement were still
to be ironed out as of early 2019 and exchanges offire continued to threaten the fragile ceasefire, but it
succeeded in preventing a major humanitarian crisis.
Across the country as a whole, 252,000 new displacements associated with conflict and violence wererecorded and at least 2.3 million people were living ininternal displacement as of the end of the year. Thesefigures are considered underestimates, due to chal-21
landmines and unexploded ordnance.76 These factors
have combined to slow the pace of returns as IDPs
choose to remain in displacement until conditions intheir areas of origin improve.

Around 1.1 million returns were recorded in Iraq in
2018, outnumbering new displacements. At 150,000,
the number of new displacements was at its lowest
since 2014 when the war against ISIL began. Despite
the official end of the conflict on 9 December 2017 andthe high number of returns, almost two million people
were still living in displacement as of the end of 2018.
Their living conditions are generally difficult, and manyof those in camps have to make do with inadequate
shelter and services, and struggle to meet their mostbasic needs.75

Flooding and drought triggered the majority of the
69,000 new displacements associated with disasters
recorded in Iraq last year. Flooding affected the northof the country particularly hard, triggering more than
35,000 in Ninewa, Salah al Din, Dahuk and Kirkuk governorates in late November and early December. A
significant number of IDPs were displaced again fromcamps when their tents were destroyed. Drought triggered 20,000 new displacements in the south of thecountry as people fled their homes in search of livelihoods, particularly in Thi Qar, Missan and Qadissiya
governorates.77

Whether those who have tried to return have been able
to achieve durable solutions is unclear. Almost 9,000
people deemed to have returned actually returned todisplacement, but not enough information is available
to determine the situation of the vast majority. Potential obstacles to durable solutions include bureaucratic
procedures, damage to homes and basic infrastructure,a lack of livelihood opportunities and the presence ofPART 1

lenges in data collection caused by access constraints.
More than 18,000 new displacements associated withdisasters were also recorded, the result of cyclones thatstruck southern governorates in May and October.

The situation in Libya deteriorated significantly in 2018,with 70,000 new displacements associated with conflictand violence recorded, more than double the number
for the previous year. New conflict in the urban centresof Tripoli, Derna and Sebha led to the destruction of
infrastructure and breakdown of basic services, triggering more than 63,000 new displacements. Migrants

Children play at the Al
Habbari informal camp for
displaced people in Sana’a,
Yemen. Photo: NRC/Becky
Bakr Abdulla, August 201822
and refugees whose detention centres were caught inthe crossfire were also affected (see Libya spotlight,p.26). Fighting and displacement also took place inthe districts of Jufra and Murqub and the cities of Sirte
and Sabratha, and across large swathes of the south,
where foreign armed groups continued to establish safe
havens and fuel insecurity.
Military offensives in Egypt against an ISIL affiliate led
to evictions and the widespread destruction of homes,commercial buildings and farms in North Sinai governorate. More than 15,000 new displacements wererecorded, but that is likely to be an underestimate giventhat the area is inaccessible and the figure was compiledusing satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts.78
More displacements associated with sudden-onset
disasters were recorded across the region in 2018 thanin previous years. Iran, which is prone to a range ofnatural hazards, was worst affected. Snow storms inJanuary and February triggered 24,000 new displacements, while floods led to more than 1,400 throughout
the year. In November, an earthquake struck the western
province of Kermanshah, in particular Sar Pol-e Zahab,
triggering almost 47,000 new displacements.

Urban perspectives
More than 65 per cent of the region’s population lives
in urban areas, in a region where cities have historically
been key hubs of trade and development.79 Much of
the region’s conflict and displacement in recent years
has also taken place in towns and cities.80 Examples
include Aleppo, Dara’a, Idlib and Raqqa in Syria, Aden,
Hodeidahand Taiz in Yemen, Benghazi and Tripoli in
Libya and Mosul in Iraq.81 Some of the conflicts are
ongoing, and among those that have concluded or
stabilised, reconstruction and recovery challenges have
impeded the achievement of durable solutions.
Some conflicts have involved sieges being laid to entire
neighbourhoods, trapping civilians in their homes orimmediate surroundings. Eastern Ghouta in Syria is acase in point. Home to a million people, it was undersiege for five years. Repeated airstrikes and mortar fire
disrupted the provision of basic services and blocked
the entry of food and humanitarian aid. When the siege
was broken in March 2018, more than 158,000 people
moved out.82

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2019

In cities such as Aleppo, Mosul and Taiz, intra-urban
displacement patterns have been observed as residents
move to safer neighbourhoods in search of safety andservices.83 In Aleppo, Baghdad and Damascus, power
struggles influenced such movements, with conflict andviolence used to reorganise and divide populations into
ethnic and religious groups, dictating where people areable to go and whether or not they are able to return.84
Urban conflict is not a new phenomenon, but it creates
specific challenges for IDPs. Unexploded ordnance,
landmines and booby traps constitute an important
security threat for people wanting to return to previously densely populated areas.85 The destruction of
infrastructure and disruption of essential services havedirect, indirect and cumulative impacts that have thepotential to render whole neighbourhoods and entire
towns or cities uninhabitable.86 Once the fighting isover, the extent of the destruction and damage may
mean recovery takes years. More than a year after its
liberation from ISIL, most of Raqqa still lies in ruins andunexploded ordnance litters the town.87
De-escalating protracted urban conflict is key topromoting long-term stability and development in the
Middle East and North Africa. Reconstruction is essential
for peace-building and to ensure those affected are able
to re-establish their lives. Delays may destabilise cities
and countries, fuelling future conflict and displacement.
Beyond immediate and much-needed humanitarianassistance, the setbacks caused by urban conflict anddisplacement will not be overcome unless the development sector engages in implementing longer-term
recovery initiatives. Reinvigorating local economies will
be key to reducing poverty, and robust urban planningwill be equally important in supporting recovery andreducing the underlying drivers of insecurity and conflictacross the region as a whole.88

23
PART 1

Displaced people in Al-Areesha camp in Syria were severely
affected by heavy rains and widespread flooding in December
2018. Photo © UNHCR/Hisham Arafat, December 2018

24
SPOTLIGHT

SYRIA
A decisive year for the conflict,but not for those displaced

The Syrian government brought large swathes of territory back under its control in 2018, making it a decisive
year in the country’s civil war. Non-state armed groups
suffered severe losses as the government and affiliated forces retook Eastern Ghouta, Dara’a and Quneitra
governorates, the southern Damascus suburbs and thecity of Homs and its surrounding countryside. Only Idlib
governorate remains in the hands of non-state actors.
As the conflict nears its end, discussions about postconflict reconstruction and returns have begun. The
government passed a new law in April which designatesreconstruction zones across Syria. Law No. 10 also gives
landowners in those areas a year to prove ownership or
risk losing their land with no compensation.89 This law
has been criticised for its potential to create significant
obstacles to return (see Spotlight, p.96).90
The year began with government forces advancing toward
the north of Hama and west of Aleppo governorates
northern areas of rural Hama and western areas of rural
Aleppo, triggering more than 325,000 new displacements over a six-week period.91 An offensive launched in
February to retake the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta
lasted seven weeks and triggered more than 158,000 new
displacements between 9 March and 22 April.92 Around66,000 people were displaced to areas of north-west
Syria including Idlib and Aleppo, which were still under
the control of non-state armed actors. These areas havereceived large numbers of displaced fighters and theirfamilies over the years as a result of local ceasefires.93
Heavy fighting also broke out in the southern governorates of Dara’a and Quneitra in June and July, culminating
in an agreement that restored government control. The
offensive led to the single largest displacement event of
the war.94 The month-long campaign triggered at least
285,000 new displacements, the majority over a periodof just two weeks.95

GRID
2019

A similar fate seemed to await Idlib governorate in lateAugust and early September. The build-up of government and affiliated forces along the conflict line in thenorth of Hama and west of Aleppo governorates and asubsequent increase in aerial bombardments prompted
an international outcry and calls for restraint. The UN,international NGOs and governments around the world
warned that further escalation would result in a humanitarian disaster.96 The area is home to 2.3 million people,
almost half of them IDPs, who would have had nowhereto flee because Turkey has shut its border.
Idlib is the largest host of displaced people in the
country relative to population size, both in and outside
camps, and repeated displacement within the governorate is commonplace. Aid agencies on the ground reportthat families have been displaced an average of threeor four times, and some as many as a dozen times.97
Many may have chosen to flee abroad had Turkey not
closed its border. The proliferation of armed groups has
further destabilised the region, with occasional clashes
between factions and criminality disrupting daily life
and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Turkey and Russia brokered an agreement on 17
September to establish a demilitarised zone between
14 and 19 kilometres wide along the contact line andextending into north-eastern areas of rural Latakia.
Turkish military police have been stationed to monitor

25High levels of damage, destruction and displacement in Aleppo.
Photo: UNHCR/Antwan Chnkdji, October 2018

compliance, which includes the withdrawal of all heavy
weaponry. The agreement may have averted a humanitarian disaster for now, but reports of violations by allparties are a cause for concern.98 The initial stability it
has introduced should be built on to establish a more
lasting solution which genuinely protects Idlib’s civilians.
Many of the IDPs who fled their homes in 2018 havesince returned to their areas of origin, particularly in thesouth. About 695,000 people have been reported to havereturned to their homes in 2018. However, given the extent
of the damage caused by the fighting, ongoing insecurity
and lack of basic services and livelihood opportunities, it
is unclear how many of these will have reached durable
solutions. An unknown number have been unwilling toreturn, preferring to wait and see what life will be like intheir areas of origin under government control.99
Southern residents who want to remain in their homes,
including former fighters, have been told to “regularise” their status with the government, which involves
visiting a local registration centre to begin a reconciliation process and be granted amnesty. What this will
mean for the many people who previously lived in areas
beyond government control remains to be seen, butthere have been some initial reports of former fightersand other young men being arrested.100

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the security situationin the south has improved somewhat. Basic services
are still lacking, however, particularly in rural Dara’aand Quneitra, and restrictions to humanitarian accessmeans little aid has been delivered. Unemployment isalso a problem, particularly for low-skilled workers andthose suspected of being anti-government activists,
ex-combatants or former officials in non-state armed
groups.101 Many government employees who have notbeen directly affiliated with armed groups have reportedly returned to their jobs.
As the conflict apparently nears its end, important postconflict questions remain. It is unclear who will fund thereconstruction of major urban centres such as Aleppo
and Raqqa so that those displaced are able to return insafety and dignity.102 Nor is it clear how north-eastern
Syria and Idlib governorate will be administered, a situation that has the potential to reignite conflict.
In a country where nearly half of the population has
been displaced, managing the safe and sustainable
return of refugees and IDPs will be a huge challenge.
Pressure should be put on the Syrian government toaddress its displacement crisis with comprehensive policies in line with the Guiding Principles to prevent thecountry from descending into conflict again.103

26
SPOTLIGHT

LIBYA
Urban displacement driven by
escalating conflict and insecurity

There was hope in 2017 of a decrease in fighting anddisplacement in Libya, but clashes escalated in several
areas of the country in 2018. Fighting took place particularly in the urban centres of Tripoli, Derna and Sebha,
triggering 70,000 new displacements. Around 221,000
people were living in displacement nationwide as ofthe end of year, suffering dire conditions and unable toreturn because of destroyed housing, ongoing insecurity
and a lack of resources.104
In Tripoli, the seat of the internationally recognised
government, the deteriorating economic situation
fuelled new conflict. Militias from outside the city
attacked its southern neighbourhoods in late August,and the intense clashes continued until early October.
The fighting was sparked by a push to gain greater
control over economic institutions based on the perception that a small number of rival militias and interest
groups in the capital have disproportionate access tothe country’s wealth.105
Almost 33,000 people were displaced as a result, andmany others were trapped in their homes without accessto basic goods and services. The Libyan Red Crescentreceived more than 2,000 calls from families asking
to be evacuated, of whom only ten per cent had theirrequest granted. The use of heavy weaponry caused
severe damage to homes, roads, telecommunications
and utilities infrastructure and health and education
facilities. Most of those displaced sheltered with family
or friends, though about 200 families sought refuge infive schools across Tripoli.106
Libya continues to be the main point of departure forpeople attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe
and a final destination for economic migrants from
West Africa. Thus, the fighting also affected the livesof around 8,000 migrants, refugees and asylum seekers

GRID
2019

held in detention centres in the city. Humanitarian accessto the areas affected by conflict was severely restricted,
leaving thousands of detainees without food or water
for several days.107 Hundreds more were evacuated tosafer locations or simply released and left to find theirown way to safety through the conflict zone. Others
were pulled out of the detention centres by militias,
who then forced them to take part in the hostilities.108
The coastal city of Derna has been under siege by the
Libyan National Army (LNA), linked to the authorities inthe east of the country, since July 2017. It was controlled
by a coalition of local fighters and Islamists known as
the Derna Shura Council, and was the only city in theeast resisting LNA control.109 A renewed offensive totake the city began in May 2018 and heavy fighting andshelling continued into June, triggering almost 24,000
new displacements. Electricity and water supplies
were cut and the provision of basic services disrupted.
Markets ran short of food and non-food items, andonly one hospital was left working at severely reduced
capacity. Entry points to the city were initially closed,
hindering the delivery of life-saving assistance, but theauthorities opened a humanitarian corridor and began
allowing families to leave the city at the end of May.110
Conflict in southern city of Sebha erupts periodicallybetween the Tebu and Awlad Suleiman tribes over thecontrol of smuggling and trafficking routes, and fighting
in 2018 triggered almost 7,000 new displacements.
Those who fled the southern and eastern districts ofthe city were initially housed in schools that were on
holiday, but they have since been moved on to allow
them to reopen.111 Civilians’ freedom of movement wasalso restricted and severe shortages of basic goods andservices were reported.112 Very few reports mentioned
the plight of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, but
given that Sebha was named the world’s human traf-

27
ficking capital last year, they are very likely to have been
affected. Assessments undertaken in Sebha’s districts
report the presence of refugees and migrants in every
assessed area.113
The violence in Sebha was further testament to thegovernment’s lack of control over southern Libya. The
region’s porous borders aggravate insecurity, allowing
foreign armed groups to establish safe havens in thearea, and facilitate the trafficking of people heading
north. The combination of mounting lawlessness anddeteriorating basic services mean conditions are dire formany residents in the south, including the displaced.114
IDPs in the area are in desperate need of adequate
shelter, food and basic household items, but prevailinginsecurity across the south means humanitarian accessis sporadic at best.115
The internationally recognized government in Tripoli
adopted the first package of economic reforms sincethe 2011 fall of Muammar Gaddafi in September 2018,
but fighting over resources is likely to remain a central

Members of the Tawergha ethnic
minority gather their belongings after
their homes were demolished by a local
militia near Tripoli. Photo © UNHCR/
Tarik Argaz, August 2018

feature of the country’s crisis, particularly in coastal andurban areas where economic activity is concentrated.116
The government also recognises the importance ofimproving security in the south, but the vastness of theterritory makes doing so a daunting task with relatively
little promise of a political dividend.117
There is hope that presidential and parliamentaryelections due to take place in 2019 may break Libya’s
political gridlock. Yet divisions remain between therival governments in the east and west, and national
reconciliation conferences have been delayed, leaving
the way open for fighting to continue.118 It will likely besome time before the country is safe, for Libyans andfor those migrants and refugees who continue to passthrough the country.

28

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
Philippines

3,990,000

China

Conflict 236,000
Disasters 9,332,000
34.2% of the global total

Indonesia
MyanmarJapan

3,762,000
857,500
340,000
146,000

As in previous years, the East Asia and Pacific region
accounted for most of the internal displacement associated with disasters recorded worldwide in 2018.
Typhoons, monsoon rains and floods, earthquakes,
tsunamis and volcanic eruptions triggered 9.3 million
new displacements. From highly exposed countries suchas the Philippines, China, Indonesia and Japan, to small
island states and territories such as Guam, Northern
Mariana Islands and Vanuatu, the impacts varied significantly across the vast region.
The Philippines alone recorded 3.8 million new displacements associated with disasters, more than any othercountry worldwide. Pre-emptive evacuations organisedby the government to mitigate the impacts of typhoons
between July and December accounted for a significant
portion. The most powerful, typhoon Mangkhut, triggered 1.6 million new displacements or around 40 per
cent of the national total. Monsoon flooding, volcanic
eruptions and landslides also triggered displacements
during the year.119
Armed conflict between the Filipino military and Islamistgroups, and other violence including clan feuds andland disputes, triggered 188,000 new displacements
in 2018, the majority in Mindanao region. There wasalso a positive development in efforts to bring peace tothe region with the signing of the Bangsamoro Organic
Law in July. The new legislation is intended to addresssome of the longstanding grievances that have fuelled
conflict in Mindanao for decades.120

GRID
2019

There were 301,000 people living in displacement asa result of conflict in the Philippines as of the end of
the 2018. They include around 65,000 in Marawi whohave been unable to return to their homes more thana year after the country’s military retook the city fromaffiliates of ISIL, because of the extent of the damage
and presence of unexploded ordnance (see Philippines
spotlight, p.32).
Almost 3.8 million new displacements associated withdisasters were recorded in China, particularly in southeastern provinces that were hit by typhoons. Despite
the fact that some of the storms were severe, including
the category five typhoon Maria, disaster management
authorities successfully reduced the risk of loss of life by
evacuating people from high-risk areas. China and thePhilippines between them accounted for much of theincrease in both regional and global figures for disasterdisplacement in the year.
Most of the 853,000 new displacements associatedwith disasters recorded in Indonesia were triggered bygeophysical events. A number of earthquakes struck theisland of Lombok in July and August, triggering 445,000
new displacements, and an earthquake and tsunami
in Central Sulawesi province a month later triggered
248,000. The event caused soil liquefaction and extensive damage and destruction of housing, particularlyin the coastal city of Palu and the surrounding area.
At least 1,754 people were killed. Another tsunami
following a volcanic eruption in the Sunda Strait resulted

29

In Myanmar, monsoon rains and flooding triggered
most of the 298,000 new disaster displacements
recorded during the year. All fourteen of the country’s
states and regions were affected, and a dam breachcaused by a swollen river in Bago region in August
triggered almost 79,000 new displacements.121 Around
42,000 associated with conflict and violence were also
recorded. Many of these were triggered by an escalationin fighting between the military and the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin and northern Shan states.122
Inter-ethnic violence over disputed resource-rich areasof Shan state also triggered displacement, as did otherevents in Karen, Chin and Rakhine states.123
Around 146,000 new displacements were recorded inJapan, the result of typhoons, storms, monsoon rains
and floods, earthquakes and landslides. The country was
hit by an unusually high number of disasters in 2018 andthough it is generally well prepared, some weaknesses
in local disaster risk management and early warning
systems were exposed, particularly in terms of ensuring
citizens’ responsiveness (see Japan spotlight, p.30).
In the Pacific, an earthquake triggered more than
58,000 new displacements in Papua New Guinea.
Volcanic activity triggered most of the 13,000 recorded
in Vanuatu and floods most of the 12,000 in Fiji. A
series of deadly bushfires aggravated by record drought
conditions in Australia caused significant damage andtriggered around 10,000 new displacements.124
A number of countries have made significant progressin reducing disaster displacement risk, and regional
monitoring, preparedness and response initiatives havealso been strengthened.125 Many countries including
Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia have put disasterdisplacement high on their political agendas by developing and implementing disaster risk management laws
and policies. Pre-emptive evacuations carried out by
national and local authorities are among the measures
which, while they cause displacement, save lives andreduce the impacts of disasters.
Some Pacific small island states have adapted their laws
and policies to emerging climate change risks. Fiji, forexample, has developed planned relocation guidelinesthat take into account future risk.126 Vanuatu also developed a national policy on displacement associated withclimate change and disasters last year, an initiative that
other countries facing similar challenges would do wellto emulate.127

URBAN PERSPECTIVESThe East Asia and Pacific region has undergone rapid
urbanisation in recent decades.128 Often hailed as a
success for reducing poverty and improving people’s
access to markets and basic services, urban growth has
also brought challenges, including inequality that fuelssocial tensions.129
The expansion of the region’s cities has also increased
disaster displacement risk, particularly in areas illplanned to withstand hazards’ impacts.130 Many arelocated in the tropical cyclone belt and the Pacific Ringof Fire, which is the world’s most active seismic andvolcanic zone.131 Given this degree of exposure, thecombination of early warning systems and robust urban
planning, building regulations and land management
will be key to reducing risk as cities continue to expand.
IDMC’s global disaster displacement risk model suggeststhat an average of more than 5.4 million people are likely
to be displaced by floods in the region in any given year
in the future, the highest level of flood displacement
risk globally (see Part 3). Many Pacific small island states
and territories such as Vanuatu, New Caledonia and
Palau rank among the highest in the world in terms ofrisk relative to population size. Many Pacific cities have
expanded in recent years, including informal settlements
on river banks and estuaries, peri-urban areas, waste
disposal sites and mangrove swamps. This has increased
not only exposure to hazards but also the vulnerabilityof populations and assets, which in turn drives up therisk and potential impacts of displacement.132
The policy developments mentioned above point in theright direction, but it is important to strengthen capacity
for implementation. Urban development planning thattakes disaster and displacement risk into account will
also be key, particularly given that East Asia and Pacific’s
annual urban growth rate is projected to be three percent, among the highest in the world.133

PART 1in 47,000 new displacements in Lampung province inDecember.

30
SPOTLIGHT

JAPAN
Disaster evacuations and theimportance of resilience
Located at the intersection of three tectonic plates andin the path of seasonal typhoons, Japan is prone toa range of hazards that have the potential to trigger
large-scale displacement and cause significant damage
to homes and infrastructure. Last year was no exception.
Storms, floods, flash floods, landslides, earthquakes andvolcanic eruptions triggered more than 146,000 new
displacements.
The country has, however, developed significant resilience to the disasters natural hazards can cause.134 Most
new displacements recorded were pre-emptive evacuations, which are an effective measure to reduce loss oflife when people are exposed to hazards. Japan’s ability
to manage disaster risk via early warning systems andevacuation schemes is generally effective at reducing
impacts, but last year showed that citizens are notalways as responsive as they could be.
Disaster displacement events in 2018 ranged from two
people displaced by a landslide in Oita prefecture in
April to more than 30,000 by typhoon Prapiroon in earlyJuly.135 Less than three weeks after Prapiroon’s rains triggered widespread flooding and landslides in south-west
Japan, the same region was struck by typhoon Jongdari.
The government issued pre-emptive evacuation orders
for Jongdari, but research conducted in Hiroshima citysuggests that less than four per cent of people heeded
them.136 Some of those who stayed put became trappedby landslides and rising floodwaters and more than
170 people died, making Jongdari Japan’s deadliest
weather-related disaster in decades.137
When typhoon Jebi hit in August, citizens’ responsiveness was similarly low. Japan’s Cabinet Officeordered around 30,000 people to evacuate, but studies
conducted in Kobe prefecture after the disaster showedthat less than 10 per cent had followed the order. Power
cuts prevented some people from receiving the order,
while others were unable to hear it over the sound of

GRID
2019

the wind and rain. In some areas the order to evacuate
was issued after flooding had begun.138 Jebi was themost powerful typhoon to hit Japan in 25 years, andthe magnitude of the disaster did help to raise awareness about the importance of pre-emptive evacuations
among affected communities.139 Around half of the
respondents in Kobe said they would evacuate nexttime if they received a similar order.140
Evacuations associated with earthquakes appear topaint a very different picture. A pre-emptive order toevacuate issued to 100 people before a 6.6 magnitude
earthquake that struck Hokkaido in September washeeded by 12,000.141 The earthquake triggered landslides that caused casualties and significant damage,including a power cut that affected 5.3 million people.142
The evacuation order was issued early enough, however,to allow people in the city of Sapporo to flee to safer
areas before it struck. This suggests that the Japanesepublic is more sensitised to the dangers of earthquakes
than those of flooding, in part perhaps because of theamount of media attention the former receive.
The government took steps to improve its disaster
response in 2018 with the pre-positioning of supplies
in evacuation centres, as opposed to sending themafter the event at the request of municipal authorities.143 It also recognised the phenomenon of “at-homeevacuees”, people who remain in their damaged homes
after a disaster but use facilities at evacuation centres
because of the disruption caused to the supply of water,electricity and other basic services. Some may also have31

A man in an evacuation
centre in Okayama
Prefecture, organised by
the Japanese Red Cross.
Photo: Japanese Red Cross
Society, July 2018

to rely on humanitarian assistance for food and nonfood items.144
Others seek shelter outside officially designated evacuation areas, and these “self-evacuees” tend not to be
included in disaster recovery efforts. Some people who
evacuated by their own means during the 2011 Great
East Japan earthquake, for example, faced significant
challenges in accessing housing and other basic services
earmarked for evacuees because they did not figure
in official government records.145 Addressing the issue
of at-home and self-evacuees would be an important
step in ensuring that all displaced people are able toachieve durable solutions. Not having provisions for
those who evacuate on their own can create inequalities in compensation mechanisms and increase the riskof protracted displacement.
The disasters that struck Japan in 2018 showed thateven in a well-prepared country there is still room for
improvement. With the very high level of exposure ofpeople and assets to hazards, the country will need tocontinuously invest in reducing disaster risk further andresponding more comprehensively to those displaced. A

number of challenges remain, including raising disasterrisk awareness at the local level and ensuring that early
warning systems are effective so that timely and welldisseminated evacuation orders are issued and heeded.
More comprehensive data on the movement of people
during and several months or even years after the eventis also needed. Beyond pre-emptive evacuations, there
is a lack of information on how long displacement lasts,
when people return or where they resettle or integrate
locally.

32

SPOTLIGHT

PHILIPPINES
Solutions still a distant prospect inMarawi, one year on

GRID
2019

Marawi, a majority Muslim city of 200,000 people, is thecapital of Lanao del Sur province and the economic hubof the southern Philippines. Between May and October
2017, it was also the scene of the country’s longest
urban conflict, during which more than 1,000 people
were killed and 350,000 displaced. A year later, reconstruction of the city has begun and most people havereturned. Around 65,000 remain displaced, however,of whom around 14,000 are still living in evacuationand transitional shelters.146

similar to that of ISIL in Mosul and other Iraqi and Syrian
cities. They created a maze of improvised tunnels in thedensely-built city centre to evade airstrikes, engaged
the security forces and resisted a siege for five months.
The city’s roads were choked with traffic during thefirst three days of the battle as residents attempted toget out. Between 80 and 90 per cent eventually fled,some of them on foot.147

The conflict erupted on 23 May 2017 when the Filipino
security forces raided the home of the leader of the Abu
Sayyaf group, a local affiliate of ISIL. The Maute Group,
another local radical Islamist organisation and an Abu
Sayyaf ally, was called in to provide reinforcement. The
militants waged urban warfare unseen in the region but

By the time the fighting was officially declared over,after the leaders of both Abu Sayyaf and the Maute
Group had been killed, the city had suffered extensive damage. The financial and business district, which
accounted for 30 per cent of the urban area, wascompletely destroyed.148 The military escorted residents

33

In April and May 2018,
the Government of thePhilippines allowed
residents of Marawi City
to visit their homes, which
had been left in ruins
after the five-month longconflict. Photo © UNHCR/
Alecs Ongcal, April 2018

in to retrieve what they could from the rubble of theirhomes before the area was cordoned off. It remains
uninhabitable, and reconstruction will not begin until
the debris has been cleared and roads rebuilt, which is
expected to take at least 18 months.149
As many as 70 per cent of those displaced, or more than
270,000 people, were thought to have returned as ofthe end of 2018.150 In some areas deemed habitable,
however, returnees still have no electricity or runningwater, nor access to education or livelihood opportunities, which prevents them from rebuilding their lives.151
Others have had to go back to evacuation centres while
they wait for their homes to be repaired. The majority of
those still displaced are living with family or friends, butalmost 2,000 families live in 21 government-run evacuation centres where they face sanitation and waste
management issues.152
The government intends to transfer the people still
living in evacuation centres to temporary shelters, but
those already transferred say that families of six or moremembers have had to share a single room, which barely
constitutes an improvement on their previous conditions.153 Food security is another major concern, because
many IDPs have been unable to find work since they

fled. Lanao del Sur was the country’s poorest provinceeven before the fighting, and malnutrition levels wereamong the highest with half of its young population
affected.154
Resolving displacement in cities decimated by urban
warfare is a long and complex process that governments
in many regions are grappling with. The cost of rebuilding
Marawi has been put at around $1.2 billion, of which
the international community had pledged around $670
million as of November 2018.155 Reconstruction is likely
to take years, however, leaving thousands of people
displaced in the meantime. Their protracted displacement has the potential to fuel further conflict as the
young and working-age, in particular, may grow tiredof slow and inadequate progress. A transparent reconstruction process that includes community consultation
will be key to quelling residents’ fears and frustration.

34

SOUTH ASIA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
India

2,844,000

Afghanistan

Conflict 544,000
Disasters 3,303,000
13.8% of the global total

807,000

Sri Lanka

101,100

Bangladesh

78,300

Nepal 12,000

Large-scale displacement in South Asia was once again
triggered by a series of floods, storms and droughts aswell as unresolved conflicts and violence. Countries in
the region continue to struggle with managing seasonal
and recurring weather-related extreme events, resulting
in more than 3.3 million new displacements. In addition
to tropical storms and floods in India and Pakistan, themonsoon season took a heavy toll in Bangladesh and
Sri Lanka as did drought in Afghanistan. New waves ofconflict and violence in India and Pakistan and ongoingfighting in Afghanistan triggered around 544,000 new
displacements.
India accounted for most of the region’s new displacements. Its overall total of 2.8 million was among thehighest in the world, of which nearly 2.7 million were
triggered by disasters across 15 states. The country wasparticularly hard-hit by the monsoon season, whenflooding devastated the south-western state of Kerala.156
Almost 1.5 million new displacements were recorded in
Kerala in what were described as the worst floods in a
century. Cyclone Titli struck Orissa and Andhra Pradesh
states in October, triggering 400,000 new displacements,
and cyclone Gaja hit Tamil Nadu in November, triggering
249,000.157
More than 160,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in Indian-controlled
Kashmir. Communal violence in Kashmir and West Bengal
cast violence in Maharashtra and political violence in
Tripura also triggered small-scale displacement (see India
spotlight, p.38).

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2019

Years of successive dry spells and below average rainfall in
Afghanistan led to drought conditions in 2018, particularly in the rural north-west of the country. More than
371,000 new displacements were recorded as people’s
livelihoods became unviable and their living conditions
untenable. Conflict triggered roughly the same number,leaving around 2.6 million people living in displacement
as of the end of the year, one of the highest figures in
the world (see Afghanistan spotlight, p.36).
Afghanistan’s four-decade conflict involves not only thecountry’s military, international forces, the Taliban and
ISIL, but also various ethnic, communal and Islamist militias.158 Exact numbers are hard to come by, but military
operations by the government triggered a significant
portion of the new conflict displacements recorded, witha total of 372,000.
Intercommunal violence triggered localised, small-scale
displacement in neighbouring Pakistan, but this is not
systematically reported on, so the figure of 1,800 is likely
to be a significant underestimate. Numbers are not available for Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, but frequent ceasefire violations and cross-border shelling in 2018 strongly
suggest that displacement must have taken place. For
disasters, more than 2,100 new displacements wererecorded, mainly triggered by localised floods.
The monsoon season also brought significant flooding
to both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Around 75,000
new displacements were recorded in Sri Lanka in thesecond half of May, and nearly 16,000 in the first35

While relatively few new displacements associated withfloods were recorded in Bangladesh in 2018, IDMC’s
flood displacement risk model shows that the country
has the third-highest flood displacement risk in the world.
Around 1.8 million people are likely to be displaced at
any given year in the future, with more than 96 per centof the risk concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas(see Part 3).

Urban perspectives
Rural to urban migration and natural population growthin the region’s towns and cities give South Asia one of
the highest annual urbanisation rates in the world at 2.5
per cent.159 This does not, however, equate with economic
growth and higher levels of human development.160 Major
cities such as Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata in India, Dhaka
in Bangladesh and Karachi in Pakistan are among themost densely populated in the world, but high numbersof people live in informal settlements in peri-urban areasthat lack adequate housing, infrastructure and services.161
Recent data shows 30 per cent of the urban population
across the region as living in informal settlements.162
Urban infrastructure development is unable to keep
up with the pace of population growth in the region.
In countries such as India, complex political structures,
capacity gaps, corruption and funding shortfalls, hamper
infrastructure development as well as basic service
provision.163 Such challenges generate widespread andgrowing socioeconomic inequality.164
Many urban plans are devised without involving locals indecision-making, and new investments in infrastructure
and the upgrade of informal settlements have the potential to push the most vulnerable into displacement andisolate them from their livelihoods.165 That said, in-situ
initiatives to upgrade informal and unserved settlements
in several Indian cities have been effective in reducing therisk of evictions and displacement.166
As in the rest of the world, the true scale of urban internal
displacement in South Asia is essentially unknown, whichmakes it difficult to estimate how the phenomenon iscontributing to urbanisation trends. The evidence thatis available, however, suggests that disasters, climatechange impacts and conflict trigger displacement both toand within urban areas. A study conducted in Bangladesh
suggests that a significant proportion of people who live
in informal urban settlements may have been displaced
from rural areas by riverbank erosion, a major hazard in
the country, projected to increase in the coming years.167
IDPs are also drawn to urban areas by the prospect ofbetter livelihood and income-generating opportunities.168
Many, however, struggle to adapt and find themselvesliving in deepening poverty. They are also vulnerable tosecondary displacement triggered by urban disasters andevictions.169
The Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, has been identified as
the country’s main destination for people fleeing disasters
and climate change impacts, and local authorities havebeen unable to cope with the influx. New approaches
to develop the potential of secondary cities to host IDPs,
however, hold the promise of alternative durable solutions
and a reduction in the risk of repeated displacement.170
People who flee to urban areas to escape conflict facesimilar challenges to those displaced by disasters. IDPs
in the Afghan capital of Kabul struggle to secure tenure
over adequate housing, which puts them at constantrisk of secondary displacement, mainly in the form ofevictions. Kabul’s IDPs tend to have significant protection concerns and often live in sub-standard housing in
marginalised areas of the city.171 Policy initiatives such a
2006 white paper on tenure security and communitybased upgrading and a 2013 policy on the upgradingof informal settlements point in the right direction, but
adoption and implementation remain a challenge.172
South Asia’s high urbanisation rate presents both major
challenges and opportunities.173 The meaningful participation and engagement of local communities in urban
planning and development will be paramount if theregion is to meet sustainable development targets underinternational frameworks and reduce the risk of future
displacement.174

PART 1

half of October, though the latter figure is likely to beconservative. Riverine floods in Bangladesh triggered
12,000 new displacements in Moulvibazar district andriverbank erosion around 44,000 in Shariatpur, mainly
in September. Flooding was also reported in Cox’s Bazar
district, which is currently home to hundreds of thousandsof Rohingya refugees who have fled violence in Myanmar.

36
SPOTLIGHT

AFGHANISTAN
Drought displaced as many as
conflict
Afghanistan has been plagued by four decades ofarmed conflict, undermining development efforts acrossthe country and triggering displacement every year.
In 2018, drought added to the existing crisis and triggered more than 371,000 new displacements, a similar
number to those associated with conflict. After four
years of below average rainfall in the north-western
provinces of Badghis, Ghor and Herat, the situation
became critical as a lack of rain and snow melt caused
crops to fail and livestock to perish. Large numbers ofpeople began to move from rural to urban areas in April,in search of livelihood opportunities, basic services andhumanitarian aid.
In reality, the drivers of displacement in Afghanistan
are intertwined. The impact of the drought was the
final straw for many families who had been living inrural areas underserviced after years of armed conflict.
Their resources and coping mechanisms had beeneroded over time, and 2018 marked a tipping point
when conditions became unbearable, leading to thecountry’s largest disaster-related displacement in at leasta decade.
North-west Afghanistan is primarily rural, and thedrought has decimated the livelihoods of tens of thousands of households dependent on livestock and rainfed agriculture.175 Eighty-four per cent of landowners
surveyed in IDPs’ areas of origin said production was
down by half compared with 2017. Those who owned
livestock said they had lost almost all of their poultry,
camels and horses and 90 per cent of their large andsmall ruminants. Respondents also said the lack of water
for domestic use was a significant concern. Rain-filled
reservoirs are used not only for irrigation but also for
drinking water, because groundwater from hand pumps
and wells is unpotable.
As of September 2018, more than 250,000 IDPs were
living in scattered informal camps on the outskirts of
Qala-e-Naw and Herat, the capitals of Badghis and

GRID
2019

Herat provinces, respectively.176 Conditions in the camps
are deplorable and protection issues rife. Shelters are
overcrowded and provide little privacy, and with theonset of winter and sub-zero temperatures members ofdifferent families were huddled together in one tent inan effort to keep warm. People are destitute and haveresorted to harmful coping mechanisms, including childlabour and early marriage. There were 161 reported
cases of child marriage in Herat and Badghis provinces
between July and October 2018.177
There is a misconception that people who flee slowonset disasters have time to pack their belongings andorganise their departure, putting them in a better position than those displaced by sudden-onset disasters or
conflict. The situation in Afghanistan disproves this.
People fleeing the drought had already sold many of
their assets and left their areas of origin with almost
nothing.
Humanitarian response teams in the country have extensive experience in dealing with displacement triggeredby conflict, which affects the entire country but tends
to be localised and relatively small-scale. Their usual
response mechanisms have not been able to cope withthe mass movements concentrated in the north-westof the country associated with the drought. Somehumanitarians may also have been influenced by the
reluctance of host communities and authorities to allow
IDPs to settle in their areas, due in part to ethnic andtribal differences, but also security concerns; this caused
delays in the initial response to the displaced. Given thatthe drought has predominantly affected areas that arecontested or beyond government control, authorities
fear the new arrivals may include members of non-statearmed groups.
The response has been further complicated by thefact that people living in protracted displacement

37
As winter approached in
Afghanistan, many families
displaced by drought andconflict were still living in
makeshift tents. Photo:
NRC/Enayatullah Azad,
November 2018and vulnerable host community members have set up
makeshift shelters among the new IDPs in an attempt
to secure humanitarian assistance, making it challenging for humanitarians to target the most vulnerable recently displaced households. As drought is aslow-onset phenomenon, it is also unclear who has the
responsibility to respond: at the outset of the droughtinduced displacement crisis, there was much debate
about which agencies had the mandate to respond,with many humanitarian agencies suggesting that theemphasis of the response should be on developmentin the places of origin, and thereby fall to development
agencies rather than humanitarians.
Despite the reticence of local authorities and hosts to
let IDPs settle, many intend to stay. Only about one percent of IDPs interviewed in Herat and eight per cent in
Badghis said they would consider an assisted voluntary return, and 71 per cent in Herat said they would
not consider returning regardless of the assistance on
offer.178 They cite factors such as insecurity, lack of foodand livelihoods, and poor access to water and basic
services as reasons for not wanting to return to theirplaces of origin.179

This raises the question of how to secure suitable, longterm housing, land and livelihoods for people displacedby the drought.180 Most have pitched their shelters on
private land where landlords only grudgingly accept
their presence, which leaves them vulnerable to eviction.
The Afghan Land Authority has signed a memorandumof understanding with the Ministry of Refugees andRepatriation to allocate state-owned land to IDPs forfive years, but this is on the assumption that they will
eventually return to their areas of origin so does notconstitute a durable solution.
The Afghan government is already struggling to facilitate
durable solutions for the 2.6 million people displaced byconflict in the country. Strong political will and substantial support from the international community will beneeded to make real progress towards durable solutions for those displaced by conflict and drought in the
country.181

38
SPOTLIGHT

INDIA
Monsoon and conflict displaced
millions
India is not unfamiliar with heavy monsoon rains andfloods, but the 2018 season was particularly intense.
Above average rainfall triggered flooding and landslides nationwide between June and August. Tropical
cyclones also struck the country’s east coast between
October and December, severely damaging homes andaffecting millions of people in the states of Andhra
Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and Puducherry territory. Disasters triggered as many as 2.7 million new
displacements during the year, nearly double the figurefor 2017. The poverty and vulnerability of many of thehouseholds affected was a significant factor in aggravating the losses, damage and displacement caused.
The monsoon season was the world’s second largest
disaster displacement event in 2018 after typhoon
Mangkhut, triggering almost two million displacements
between May and October. The impacts were widespread, but most media attention focussed on the stateof Kerala, where severe flooding in 13 out of 14 districts
was described as the worst in a century.182
The Kerala floods accounted for more than half ofIndia’s new displacements in 2018. As many as 1.5
million people were recorded as displaced in about
5,600 camps set up by the authorities. That figure is asignificant underestimate of the overall scale of displacement, given that an unknown number of IDPs stayedwith friends and family or in rented accommodation.183
By the end of the monsoon season, as many as 2,000
homes had been destroyed and as many as 22,000
damaged, hampering return for many people.184
Three cyclones struck India’s eastern seaboard during
the year. Cyclone Titli triggered around 300,000 preemptive evacuations in Odisha and around 100,000
displacements in Andhra Pradesh in October, the latter
figure calculated using housing destruction as a proxy.
Communities living in affected coastal areas tended tolive in mud and bamboo homes or dwellings with corrugated tin sheets, which were unable to withstand the

GRID
2019

storm. When cyclone Phethai hit two months later, many
were still living in damaged homes.185 Phethai triggered
as many as 32,000 displacements in the two states in
December. Cyclone Gaja triggered 249,000 displacements in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in November.
It also destroyed homes and livelihoods, potentiallyhindering return for many of those displaced.186
Though dwarfed in scale, conflict also triggered
displacement in India in 2018. Cross-border shelling
led to more than 160,000 displacements in Indiancontrolled Kashmir.187 Heavy fire from Pakistani forces
triggered about 54,000 in January, when people
deserted a number of border villages, and as manyas 100,000 from Jammu, Samba and Kathua districtsin May.188 The intensity of cross-border shelling andsubsequent displacement has increased in recent years,
but it repeats past patterns of short-term but recurring
movements that disrupt daily life, education and theprovision of other basic services.189
The events of 2018 serve as a reminder that displacement is an everyday reality in India, and one which has
the potential to drag down the country’s emerging
economy if measures to reduce displacement risk are
not taken. The authorities have made commendable
efforts in improving early warning and disaster management systems, but they continue to face challenges
when it comes to preventing and responding to crises.
The last 12 months also showed that poverty andvulnerability, which are key drivers of risk, need to bebetter addressed. Given ever more frequent and intense
weather events and continuing tensions along the country’s disputed border with Pakistan, these challenges
may only get more severe in the future.

39
PART 1

THE AMERICAS

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
United States

Conflict 404,000
Disasters 1,687,000
7.5% of the global total

1,247,000

El Salvador

250,700

Colombia

212,000

Brazil

86,000Cuba

52,000Weather-related disasters once again impacted
several countries in the Americas in 2018. In addition,
unresolved conflict, criminal violence and social andeconomic crises continued to push people to flee. Disasters triggered the majority of new displacements in theregion, accounting for around 1.7 million. In addition,
about 404,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded.
Hurricanes and wildfires triggered more than 1.2
million new displacements in the United States, thehighest figure in the region. Florida was struck by two
major hurricanes during the year. Hurricane Florence
triggered 464,000 new displacements in August,and hurricane Michael another 375,000 in October.
Unprecedented and devastating wildfires triggered
354,000 new displacements in California in the second
half of the year, accounting for around 30 per centof the total new displacements in the US (see UnitedStates spotlight, p.42).
Confrontations between different armed groups, intimidation and extorsion triggered 145,000 new displacements in Colombia in 2018, an increase comparedwith previous years. The government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed apeace agreement in 2016, but to date the country’s
military has been unable to secure areas the demobilised
guerrilla group used to control. The power vacuum has
been filled by other armed groups vying for controlof land, illegal mining and drug plantations and trafficking routes. Fighting between two smaller guerrillagroups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and thePopular Liberation Army (EPL), triggered most of the
new displacements.
Norte de Santander was the worst affected department.
Around 30,000 new displacements were recorded,
the highest figure since 2002 and 20 per cent of thenational total for last year. The department also sharesa border with Venezuela, and its capital Cúcuta has
been the main crossing point for refugees and migrants
fleeing Venezuela’s political and economic crisis (seeColombia spotlight, p.44).
More than 67,000 new displacements associated withdisasters were also recorded in Colombia. Floods in thenorthern department of Antioquia led to more than
26,000 evacuations in April and May, when construction failures at the Ituango hydroelectric complex,
Colombia’s largest and one of its most controversial
development projects combined with rising waters
upstream, raising fears the dam would burst.190 Torrential rains caused several rivers to break their banks inthe southern department of Putumayo triggering morethan 30,000 in August.
Around three million people have been recorded as
fleeing Venezuela in the past 18 months, but the
government’s unwillingness to acknowledge its population’s growing humanitarian needs means solid information about any internal displacement is scarce.191
Evidence suggests that it has been significant, however,particularly toward border areas as people seek easier40

A city bus burned by gang members in Apopa, 19
kilometres away from the city of San Salvador, El
Salvador. Photo: Shutterstock/ES James

access to basic services in Colombian and Brazilian
border towns.192 Venezuela’s crisis escalated significantly
in 2018 as food shortages increased and the provisionof basic services including electricity and healthcare
deteriorated.193
At least 420 new displacements associated with conflictand violence were recorded in Ecuador, as the presenceof FARC dissidents and drug trafficking groups such as
the Mexican Sinaloa cartel in the province of Esmeraldas forced people to flee.194 Esmeraldas is a strategic
location for these groups because it shares sea andland borders with Tumaco, the largest coca-producing
municipality in Colombia.195 Joint military operations
have taken place on both sides of the border and theemerging situation shows that drug production andtrafficking remain significant drivers of conflict, instability and displacement in the region.
Violence associated with the drug trade also triggered
at least 11,000 new displacements in Mexico, where
the states of Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Oaxaca
and Sinaloa were worst affected. Figures on internal
displacement and policies to address it are far fromcomprehensive, but the modification of the coun-

GRID
2019

try’s General Victims Law to include IDPs as a vulnerable group and the Senate proposition to establish a
specific law on IDP protection in 2018 are positive steps
forward.196
Mexico also saw 13,000 new displacements triggeredby hurricane Willa, which tracked across six stateswith wind speeds of up to 220 kilometres an hour inNovember. Many of these displacements can be attributed to evacuations organised by the authorities asa result of the advanced disaster risk management
systems in place in the country.
In El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, which makeup the Northern Triangle of Central America, highlevels of violence, much of it urban, continued to trigger
displacement. Gang activity, structural violence, generalised insecurity, heavy-handed state security responses,
corruption and a culture of impunity have all been identified as drivers of internal and cross-border displacement in the region.197
Around 246,000 new displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in El Salvador and
950 in Honduras. Ongoing violence in Guatemala

41

Urban perspectives
Many countries in the Americas have undergone rapid
urbanisation over the last 50 years, and with it came aconcentration of economic development in and aroundlarge cities. Increasing trade and employment opportunities have drawn economic migrants from rural areasand secondary and less economically active cities toward
capitals and other major urban centres.199 Internal
displacement has tended to follow similar patterns.200
These influxes have combined with natural urban demographic growth to make the Americas the most urbanised region in the world, with around 80 per cent of its
population living in towns and cities.201
Its urban centres are characterised by the concentration of wealth in specific pockets and among specificgroups, creating socioeconomic and spatial inequalities
that drive urban poverty, segregation and marginalisation. Many poor people, including IDPs, live in rapidly
expanding but unplanned, unregulated and underserved settlements in peri-urban areas.202
This issue is among the region’s main urban challenges. Poorly planned urban development in the US
has increased disaster risk in many cities, and evidenceshows that disasters disproportionately affect poor
households living in exposed areas, often leading totheir displacement.203 Estimates also suggest that morethan 20 per cent of Latin America’s urban population live in unregulated and underserved settlements,
many of them built in hazard-prone and often insecureareas.204 This puts the urban poor at particularly highrisk of displacement triggered by disasters, criminal
violence and evictions.
Many of the region’s cities rank among the mostdangerous in the world, and cases of individuals andfamilies being forced to flee targeted and generalised

gang violence have been documented. 205 Violence
perpetrated by criminal groups associated with drugtrafficking in Mexico has triggered displacement in many
cities, including Ciudad Juárez, Culiacan and Tijuana.206
Direct and indirect security threats have also been
observed to trigger intra-urban displacement, in whichpeople move from one neighbourhood to another, incities including San Salvador in El Salvador and Medellinin Colombia (see Medellin and San Salvador spotlight,p.81). 207 The scale and dynamics of urban displacement associated with criminal violence, however, remain
poorly captured and understood across the region.
Some countries have implemented successful urban
poverty reduction measures, particularly by upgrading
informal settlements. Many initiatives in Brazil havecombined physical and architectural with social andparticipatory components to prevent evictions anddisplacement. 208 Urban regeneration projects in
Colombia that combine improved transport, security
and social support have benefited hundreds of thousands of poor urban dwellers, including IDPs living in
marginalised peri-urban areas.209 Disaster risk reduction
initiatives have also helped to mitigate displacement risk
in cities such as Santa Fe in Argentina, Montego Bay inJamaica and Lima in Peru.210
Cities in the Americas will play an ever-greater role insupporting durable solutions and reducing the risk ofdisplacement. Robust urban planning with a focus onrisk reduction and conflict prevention will be vital if its
triggers and drivers are to be addressed and its impacts
reduced.211

PART 1suggests that displacement has taken place there too,
but not enough data is available to compile an estimate. Of the three countries, not all recognise internal
displacement associated with violence let alone collectdata on it systematically, effectively rendering thephenomenon all but invisible. It is clear, however, thatmany IDPs fail to find safety and security in their own
country, leading to significant numbers of cross-border
movements within and beyond the region.198 The caravans that gained momentum in 2018 are illustrative of
this point.

42
SPOTLIGHT

UNITED
STATES
California wildfires: urban
expansion and the risk ofdisplacement
The western US state of California is highly prone towildfires. In recent years, the combination of climatechange and people’s increased vulnerability and exposure to hazards made the wildfire seasons longer
and more destructive. The extension of the two long
seasons, the first spanning from June to September andthe other from October to April, has the potential ofturning wildfires into a year-round threat.212 Prolonged
drought, higher temperatures, stronger winds and theoveruse of water for agriculture have caused significant
harm to local ecosystems, leaving forests tinder-dry andlittered with dead wood.213 The increasing housing stockin the wildland-urban interface, where housing meetsand intermingles with wildland vegetation, also means
ever more homes are exposed to fire risk, which in turnincreases the risk of displacement.214
The state experienced the deadliest and most destructive outbreak of wildfires in its history in the second halfof 2018, burning about 355,000 hectares of land, fourtimes the annual average for the past five years.215 Morethan 100 people are thought to have died. At least 22
wildfires triggered over 354,000 new displacements,
accounting for almost 30 per cent of the total new
displacements recorded in the United States last year.
The Carr, Holy and Mendocino Complex fires, named
after the places where they started, forced the evacuation of over 90,000 people in July and August, andduring the Woolsey and Camp fires a further 235,000
people in November.
Camp fire alone killed 85 people, displaced at least
53,000 and destroyed almost 14,000 homes.216 It burnt
62,000 hectares of land and caused between $11 and$13 billion in commercial and residential losses. It was
not the largest fire. Mendocino Complex burned almost

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2019

four times the area. Nor was it unique in how fast it
spread. The Tubbs fire in 2017 moved at similar speeds.
What set Camp fire apart and made it the deadliest andmost destructive fire in California’s history was what
happened in Paradise, a town which lay in its path.217
Paradise, a picturesque town in Butte county nestledin the Sierra Nevada foothills, had a large percentage
of its homes in the wildland-urban interface, increasing
the town and its residents’ exposure and vulnerability
to wildfires. 218 Within a few hours of taking hold,the fire had spread and destroyed most of the town,
displacing about 30,000 people. It was an example ofurban conflagration, a phenomenon last seen morethan a century ago in which a fire leaps from structure
to structure igniting them as it goes.219
Since the 1906 San Francisco fire, urban design anddevelopment have included better materials and moredefensible spaces, space between buildings and grass,trees or shrub, to prevent fire from spreading quickly.220
Since the 1990s, however, millions of homes have been
built in undeveloped areas on the fringes of towns andcities. This has increased the interface between wilderness and urban areas, and the trend is set to continue
as ever more people move to such places to live closer
to nature and reduce living costs.221
If future urban conflagrations are to be prevented,
homes in the wildland-urban interface will have to
be built with more fire-retardant materials and larger
defensible spaces between them to slow the spread offires.222 The California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection recommends that homes have between 30 and 100
feet (10 to 30 metres) of defensible space, but without

43

A view of a suburban Californianneighborhood, after a wildfire
burned the hillside right up to edgeof the houses. Photo: Shutterstock/
Erin Donaldson, 2018state enforcement of regulations on private property,
such guidelines are more often than not ignored.223
In an area that was already experiencing a housing
shortage, Camp fire left thousands of people homeless.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
has dispersed millions of dollars in assistance to those
who lost their homes, but many of those displaced
still struggle to find somewhere to live locally. FEMA
is encouraging people to look for housing in Sacramento, 135 kilometres away, and further afield, but
this would disconnect people from their livelihoods andsocial networks.224 The lack of available and affordable
housing in the area will inevitably affect those withfewer resources the most.
The 2018 wildfire season in California demonstrates how
climate change and urban expansion have combined
to intensify fires, alter their patterns and extend theseasons. Average temperatures will continue to riseand populations living in the wildland-urban interface
to grow, exposing more people to the risk of displace-ment. The disaster in Paradise offers an example of what
the future may hold if authorities do not enforce urban
planning legislation and strengthen disaster prevention
and response.225

44
SPOTLIGHT

COLOMBIA
Norte de Santander, where two
displacement crises converge

Two displacement crises converged in Colombia in 2018.
The one that has attracted by far the most media attention had its origins in neighbouring Venezuela, wheremore than 3.4 million people are thought to have fled
the country to escape economic meltdown and hyperinflation, increasing criminality and human rights abuses,
worsening food shortages and deteriorating provisionof goods and services.226 Colombia has received morethan half of Venezuela’s refugees and migrants. Somehave continued their journey onward to Ecuador andelsewhere in the region, but more than a million havestayed in the country.227 Between 300,000 and 500,000
Colombians have also returned from Venezuela since
the start of the crisis.228
These events have diverted the international community’s attention and resources away from ongoing internal
displacement in Colombia. Many aid providers now
dedicate less than 30 per cent of their resources to theissue.229 Despite the 2016 peace agreement between
the government and the FARC, the number of new
displacements associated with conflict and violence
increased in 2018 compared with the previous year tomore than 145,000.230 In addition, 5.8 million people
remain displaced in Colombia as of the end of the year.
The situation in Norte de Santander department, whichborders Venezuela, is of particular concern. Around
30,000 new internal displacements associated withconflict and violence were recorded in 2018, the highest
figure since 2002.231 Within the department, the Catatumbo region has been particularly hard hit. Once a
FARC stronghold, the territory has since been retakenby the ELN and the EPL, two other guerrilla groups
which have been present in the area for decades. FARC
dissidents and other armed groups have also joined
the fray.232

GRID
2019

Armed clashes intensified after the breakdown of anagreement between these groups on illegal businesses,
including drug trafficking. Not only did coca cultivationin Catatumbo increase by 145 per cent between 2015
and 2017, but the expansion of the drug trade combinedwith the reconfiguration of conflict has led to a growing
number of attacks against civilians.233 At least 31 social
leaders were assassinated in Norte de Santander in
2018, out of a national total of 172.234
Fighting between ELN and EPL in January and March
restricted the movement of almost 18,000 civilians,
whose access to basic goods, livelihoods and healthservices was also impeded. Humanitarian organisations struggled to reach those affected.235 Children’s
education was also disrupted when 80 schools had tosuspend classes because of violence and the presenceof landmines.236
The accompanying influx of Venezuelans risks undermining livelihood opportunities for the department’s
IDPs and poor host communities. The situation in thecapital, Cúcuta, highlights some of the challenges associated with the combination of internal and cross-border
movements. Not only is it a destination for IDPs fleeing
conflict and violence in rural areas of the department.
It is also the busiest border crossing between Colombia
and Venezuela, and hosts more Venezuelans than any

45Venezuelan refugees and migrants cross theSimon Bolivar Bridge, one of 7 legal entry
points on the Colombia-Venezuela border,
the largest entry point with over 30,000
people crossing into Colombia on a daily
basis. Photo © UNHCR/Siegfried Modola,
January 2019other municipality in the country. Thousands cross theborder every day in search of food, medicine and basic
services.237 Hospitals and other social service providers
struggle to meet the growing population’s basic needs,
and local authorities are close to overwhelmed.238
Cúcuta has the highest unemployment rate in the
country, reaching 15.8 per cent between September
and November 2018.239 It also has the highest participation rate for informal labour, at more than 68 percent of the workforce.240 The influx of Venezuelans has
increased competition for this type of work. There arefew alternatives and some IDPs report finding it harder
to secure employment.241 The integration of Venezuelans into the workforce is well recognised as an unprecedented challenge for Colombia.242
This, in turn, has led to a rise in xenophobia toward
Venezuelans. Threatening leaflets have been circulated in Cúcuta, Molotov cocktails have been thrownat places where they live and they have been targeted
for robbery and extortion.243 The lack of opportunities
and increasingly hostile environment have led somewho cross the border into the city to move on directly
elsewhere in Colombia, or further afield to Ecuador,
Peru and Chile.244 International humanitarian organisations, government agencies and the private sector
have introduced initiatives to tackle xenophobia andrefocus attention on the true priorities of the region’s
unprecedented displacement crisis.245
The government in Bogota has adopted an open andsupportive approach to the influx of Venezuelans, ofwhom as many as 770,000 entered Colombia in 2018.
In a spirit of reciprocity, it has acknowledged that in
the past, Colombians have flowed into Venezuela insearch of better opportunities or to escape conflictand violence. More than 574,000 Venezuelans were
officially registered in Colombia as of February 2019,
240,000 were in process of registering and 218,000
had no legal status.246 Supporting these refugees andmigrants is rightly a priority in the region, but doing
so should not be at the expense of those internallydisplaced, particularly at a time when peacebuilding andreconciliation are key priorities in Colombia.

46

EUROPE AND
CENTRAL ASIA

5 COUNTRIES WITH MOSTNEW DISPLACEMENT(conflict, violence and disasters)
Ukraine12,000

GreeceConflict 12,000
Disasters 41,000
0.2% of the global total

FranceTajikistan
Kyrgyzstan

Every year, Europe and Central Asia have lower
numbers of new displacement than other regions andfewer people living in displacement. However, a totalof 53,000 new displacements were still recorded in2018, of which 41,000 were associated with disasters
and more than 12,000 with conflict. Almost 2.9 million
people were living in internal displacement as of the endof the year, the result of old and unresolved conflicts
and territorial disputes in several countries.
The latter figure includes 800,000 in Ukraine,where the country’s conflict entered its fifth year.
New displacements were recorded in October when
12,000 people were evacuated following an explosion
at an ammunition depot east of Kyiv, thought by thegovernment to have been an act of sabotage.247 The
majority were able to return home two weeks later.
Around 200 new displacements were also recorded
in settlements along the contact line, where ceasefire
violations including shelling continue.
Around 344,000 people were living in protracted
displacement in Azerbaijan as a result of the country’sunresolved conflict with Armenia over the NagornoKarabakh region. An additional 301,000 IDPs were
estimated to have made partial progress towards
durable solutions, thanks to the government’s efforts
to relocate them into temporary housing. In Georgia,
293,000 people remain displaced because of longstanding territorial disputes in Abkhazia and South

GRID
2019

9,200
5,400
4,700
3,600

Ossetia. Similar conditions were faced by around
228,000 people in Cyprus, who remain displaced as aconsequence of the deadlock between the Turkish andGreek Cypriot authorities over the status of the northof the island. Many of Europe’s IDPs have been living
in displacement for 15 years or more.
There is no up-to-date information about displacement inTurkey, but renewed fighting between the government
and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2015 andsubsequent security operations triggered hundredsof thousands of displacements in the south-east of
the country. In 2018 the government began building
new homes in the region as part of an urban renewal
project and to compensate victims of the conflict.
Around 25,000 homes are thought to have been built
to date, but it is unclear who the beneficiaries will be.
Some of the housing offered to IDPs for compensation
are far from city centres, pulling them away from theirlivelihoods and social networks. 248 Several people
who remained in their homes in areas affected by the
conflict, such as in the historic Sur district of Diyarbakir,
have also been evicted to make way for regeneration
initiatives.249
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia accounted for an
important share of the region’s new displacements
associated with disasters. Days of heavy rain caused
flooding in Tajikistan’s southern province of Khatlon in
May, triggering more than 5,400 new displacements

47

Storms and floods triggered at least 5,400 new
displacements in France, including 1,500 in the Ile-deFrance area around Paris when the banks of the river
Seine burst in January.251 A riverine flood in the Piavebasin in Italy led to 1,300 new displacements in
October, and flash flooding and storm surges pushed
a similar number out of their homes in Greece in late
September when a storm struck the island of Evia andthe southern Peloponnese peninsula.
A short winter, warm spring and record-breaking
temperatures and below average rainfall in the summer
led to one of Europe’s most destructive wildfire seasonsin recent years.252 Approximately 3,000 homes weredestroyed in the Greek region of Attica in July, triggering
more than 7,000 new displacements.253 Wildfires in the
Valencia region in Spain triggered 2,600 in August.
The European parliament and Council of Europe
approved plans in December 2018 to improve the EU’s
management of disaster risk. The scheme, known as
rescEU, will create a reserve of civil protection capacity
to support national responses to the impacts of natural
hazards and epidemics. Member states will also sharenational prevention and preparedness plans to identify
and address possible gaps.254

Urban perspectives
Europe and Central Asia is one of the most urbanised
regions in the world. Seventy-two per cent of its
population live in towns and cities.255 It is a diverse
region, and as in other contexts, the drivers, triggers andimpacts of urban displacement vary across it, making
it difficult to generalise. From Spain to Uzbekistan,
the way national and local authorities respond to thephenomenon also vary widely.
Many IDPs in Ukraine come from urban backgrounds,
particularly cities such as Donetsk, Horlivka, Kramatorsk,
Luhansk and Sloviansk.256 The country’s urban centres,
including the capital Kyiv, have also been important
destinations for those fleeing the conflict.257 Ukraine’s
towns and cities offer better access to services andincome-generating opportunities than rural areas, andmany IDPs have managed to establish themselves intheir new urban environments.258
Housing, land and property rights are challenges,
however, because Ukraine does not have a specificmechanism to process claims on properties affected by
the conflict.259 Nor does Ukrainian legislation list IDPs as
a group entitled to social housing. The local authorities
in Bakhmut, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk have madeefforts to address some of these issues with support
from the international humanitarian community.260
Local governments and international agencies havealso worked together to address displacement in
Kosovo, where policies have been put in place to help
municipalities support sustainable returns for people
displaced by conflict between 1998 and 2004. The
Regulation on the Return of Displaced Persons andDurable Solutions in Kosovo, for example, calls formunicipal action plans on the issue and emphasises theimportance of IDPs’ socioeconomic integration basedon their skills, gender, age and disabilities.261 It also aims
to improve cooperation between national and local
authorities to ensure return conditions are comparable
across the territory.262
In many parts of the region, however, urban IDPs face
marginalisation and unequal access to basic services.
Those in many post-Soviet countries receive lower quality
service provision than host communities, particularly
in terms of healthcare. 263 The dynamics of urban
displacement in Central Asian countries remain poorly
understood, but evidence suggests that urban renewal
and beautification projects have caused displacement
in cities including Ashgabat in Turkmenistan, Dushanbe
in Tajikistan and Tashkent in Uzbekistan.264
The Council of Europe called in 2018 for renewed
action by states and regional bodies to addressinternal displacement in the region.265 Among many
recommendations, it highlighted the importance ofaddressing IDPs’ housing, land and property rights andproviding humanitarian assistance to those living in
protracted displacement. The role of local authorities
and cities in unlocking solutions will be central to
implement these national and regional commitments.

PART 1and damaging homes, roads, bridges and farmland.250
Landslides in the Jalal-Abad region of Kyrgyzstan
triggered almost 4,700 new displacements in April,and floods 1,500 in the Russian republics of Altai, Tuva
and Khakassia in March.

48

PEOPLE LIVING IN DISPLACEMENT AS A
RESULT OF CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE
There were an estimated 41.3 million people living ininternal displacement as a result of conflict and violencein 55 countries as of the end of 2018, an increase ofabout 1.4 million on the previous year. Around 70 per
cent were living in just ten countries (see Figure 7).
Ethiopia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, Nigeria and
Cameroon saw increasing numbers of people living
in internal displacement. The end of year figures forcountries such as Syria, Iraq, India and Myanmar fell, butthey remain among the highest in the world.
As figures 7 and 8 show, displacement associated withconflict and violence is highly concentrated, mainly incountries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East andNorth Africa that are in the throes of protracted crises.

These are conservative estimates that should be treatedwith caution. Each country and organisation that reportson the number of people living in displacement as ofthe end of the year faces numerous challenges andlimitations when it comes to compiling their figures.
They include inconsistent methodologies for collecting,analysing and sharing data, reporting biases, politicalconsiderations and out-of-date datasets.
The data for 2018 shows, however, that as in previous
years, millions of IDPs around the world have been
unable to achieve durable solutions, and the figures
serve an important purpose in reminding us not justof their existence, but also of our collective failure toaddress their predicament.

Figure 7: The ten countries with the highest number of people displaced by conflict and violence as of the end of 201830.9 m41.3 mPeople living in displacement as
result of conflict and violence in
55 countries and territories
as of 31 December 2018

GRID
2019

People living in
displacement in the
10 countries reporting
most IDPs

Syria
Colombia
Dem. Rep. Congo
Somalia
Afghanistan
Yemen
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Sudan
Iraq

6.1 m
5.8
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2

Figure 8: People internally displaced by conflict and violence as of 31 December 201849
PART 1

50

ASSESSING PROGRESSTOWARD DURABLE
SOLUTIONS
We have not included people reported to have madesome progress toward achieving durable solutions in our
global end-of-year estimate of the number of IDPs. To
do so would have significantly risked inflating the figureand double counting anyone who was displaced morethan once. This is because most of the data on internal
displacement does not track the trajectory or conditionsof individual IDPs or households over time, nor does it
distinguish between new and repeated displacements.
For example, once an IDP has returned or left a campwith the intention of returning, this is the last we hearof them. If they were to become displaced and counted
again as an IDP we would end up accounting for them
twice.
Rather than continue to account for these people inour global headcount, we have developed additional
metrics that allow us to shine a light on their situations and underscore the need for governments anddata providers to capture the number and conditionsof people reported as having returned or achieved
durable solutions (see Table 3, p.123). This is vital toprevent people who may still be extremely vulnerablefrom falling off the radar.
Total number of IDPs: The map on the previous page
presents IDMC’s best estimate of the number of people
living in internal displacement as a result of conflictand violence as of 31 December 2018. It encompasses
a wide range of situations across 55 countries, each ofwhich is unique. The global total includes people whohave been displaced for vastly different lengths of time
and who face a wide array of challenges in their efforts
to achieve durable solutions to their displacement. If
IDMC is able to verify that returned IDPs or refugees arestill effectively living in displacement, they are includedin the global figure.
This was the case for 9,000 “returnees” in Iraq who,
although they had returned to their areas of origin, were
living in collective shelters, in displacement camps orwith host families. As such they were, by IDMC’s definition, still displaced. They and a number of other groups
whom IDMC still considers IDPs but its data providers nolonger count as such are included in the global figure.

GRID
2019

Number of IDPs who have reportedly returned,
been resettled or locally integrated but who may
still have vulnerabilities linked to their displacement: In some cases, IDMC’s sources provide evidence
that those who have returned, resettled or begun tointegrate into their host communities still face risks
related to their displacement. We have therefore
accounted for these movements as partial solutions.
In north-east Nigeria, for example, 86,000 people werereported as having returned home, but information on
their shelter conditions suggested they had gone backto damaged or destroyed housing or were living in
temporary structures in their original place of origin. In
DRC, almost 1.5 million people were reported as having
returned, but there was significant evidence to suggestthat their situation was not sustainable given high levels
of insecurity. In both cases, IDMC accounted for the
returns as partial solutions.
Number of IDPs whose reported return, resettlement or local integration cannot be verified: Inother cases, IDMC’s sources report only that people
have left a shelter, camp, evacuation centre or hostcommunity, sometimes with the stated intention of
returning home. No further information is available
about what happens to them or the conditions they
face after leaving. Characterising these movements asdurable solutions would be both misleading and inconsistent with the Guiding Principles, which clearly statethat IDPs who continue to face risks and vulnerabilities
related to their displacement should still be consideredinternally displaced.
In Burundi, for example, the total number of IDPs
reported by the International Organization for Migration(IOM) declined by around 25,000 between 2017 and2018 because security had improved. IDMC characterised this change as an unverified solution, because nofurther information about these people was available.
In South Sudan, the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and local media reported
that 12,000 IDPs returned. IDMC accounted for these
returns as an unverified solution since it could not obtain
any information about the conditions to which people
had returned.

51PART 1Children run through ‘Bhola
Slum’ in the city of Dhaka,Bangladesh. Many people
have been forced to relocate
to the capital as a result of
coastal erosion and otherclimate impacts in the
country’s southern regions.
Credit: Mahmud Hossain Opu
for IDMC, February 2019