"(("3)6*%('5,!-6*'7!"#$%&%'#()*+&,$-#"./0*1&2&)*&/0*1'2&34'0*5'(.42(6*7(238&2'0*
7/'#-9*:.%%49;1'8&/0*+&4&/,'!"#$%&'()*'+,-%."($,%/',+'.012'*%*1&#'/*3-1$(#4!""#$%#%#&'()*+,&-./.(0)12&'(+.+)3)(4&56478(12&.(9&:;4;*)&<.4=1&>8*&'()*+,&.(9&'08(8370&?)9)@)/863)(4."5$.'5,%')$00*!'
0*(*1')"#*/
A6*7/&%#%!

The Nautilus Institutefor Security and Sustainability

LAYING THE FOUNDATIONS OF DPRKENERGY SECURITY:
1990-2020 ENERGY BALANCES,ENGAGEMENT OPTIONS, AND FUTURE
PATHS FOR ENERGY AND ECONOMIC
REDEVELOPMENT

ATTACHMENT VOLUME 1
WORKPAPERS, BACKGROUND DATA,AND DETAILED RESULTS: ESTIMATED
ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES
Prepared by David F. von Hippel and Peter Hayes
The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability
April 26, 2021
D. von Hippel e-mail dvonhip@igc.org;
P. Hayes e-mail: phayes@nautilus.org

Copyright Nautilus Institute, 2003, 2007, 2012, and 2021 ©
Published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License, the terms of which arefound here.

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ATTACHMENT 1
WORKPAPERS, BACKGROUND DATA, AND
DETAILED RESULTS:
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGYSUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESFOR THEDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)AND RELATED ENERGY SECTOR AND POLLUTANTEMISSIONS ANALYSESCONTENTS:ATTACHMENT 1
DETAILED, PETROLEUM PRODUCT, AND SUMMARY ENERGYBALANCES ...................................................................................................................... 1
ELECTRICITY BALANCES AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND SUMMARYTABLES/FIGURES ....................................................................................................... 72
WORKPAPERS—ENERGY DEMAND SECTORS ............................................... 312
ADDITIONAL SUMMARY FIGURES AND TABLES .......................................... 421
ESTIMATES OF COST AND SAVINGS OF SELECTED ENERGYEFFICIENCY MEASURES........................................................................................ 449
ESTIMATES OF COST AND SAVINGS OF SELECTED ELECTRICITYSUPPLY MEASURES ................................................................................................. 475
SUMMARY OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLYMEASURE RESULTS ................................................................................................ 484

DRAFT—Please do not quote or cite without permission from authors

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ESTIMATES OF ACID GAS AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.............. 490
ESTIMATES OF NUCLEAR WASTE GENERATION (FOR SIMPOREACTORS, IF BUILT) ............................................................................................. 592
ILLUSTRATIVE ESTIMATE OF COST TO THE DPRK OF ENERGY USEDDURING 2010............................................................................................................... 594
ADDITIONAL SUMMARY RESULTS TABLES AND GRAPHS ........................ 596
ESTIMATE OF COSTS TO REFURBISH DPRK TRANSMISSION AND
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ......................................................................................... 709
DPRK INDUSTRIAL ENERGY INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS OF 1990 ........... 713

DRAFT—Please do not quote or cite without permission from authors

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Detailed, Petroleum Product, and Summary Energy Balances
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1990
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
1,325,571

CRUDE
OIL
110,742

REFINED
PROD.
26,622

HYDRO/NUCLEAR78,075WOOD/
BIOMASS
161,941

1,301,288
68,392
44,108110,742

26,622

78,075

149,909
12,183151

0(377,571)(110,742)

82,762(78,075)(76,641)(110,742)(21,947)
110,742(9,920)2,976Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(294,926)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

948,000-

109,384-

152,021

ENERGY DEMAND

948,009-109,384-

152,021671,661
324,615
68,13923,994
11,203
4,026
23,72029,38561,980124,600-

28,393-

5,626

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

189,274
129,155
60,119-AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

9,750

-

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

1,132
1,132

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

29,828-890
28,938100

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

32,64698

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL
(0)

HEAT
-

(3,417)

(73)

-

9,251

120,464(360,855)

7,884

165,600(593)(8,544)(1,549)(12,408)(23,592)(220,030)(593)(71,636)(6,944)(2,008)(18,368)(41,277)

2,976

9,251

120,464

1,342,096

2,973

9,251

120,467

1,342,105--

70,242
17,3884,356
18,891
6,616
932
4,126
396
2,497
189
14,850775,923
342,003
80,06547,45817,8198,985
27,846
12,99631,882
62,169144,700--

11,470600

51,03934,243
12,819
1,253
1,123
1,600

2,976

(1,433)

2,916(5,960)(16,136)

7,571
4,573
4,026
12,600

3,650

-

9,750

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

1,600

37,89632,571
1,949
1,253
1,123
1,000

-

6,600
6,256
344

-

5,005
2,619
2,386

-

3,137
2,681
456

-

16,533
6,585
263
2,648
6,937

-

1,672
1,672

10,87086,140

6,134
6,134

86,140

2,973
1,814
1,159

10,7187,420
3,298

301,840
150,780
151,060

44,950

-

-

2,572
907
1,664

62,2773,526
58,750

-

-

524

4,794
2,681
2,112

44,950
-

524
-

1,632

5,950

NON-ENERGY USE

13,7185,771

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

23.43

1.28

A1- 1

-

-

2,644
473

12,00021.29

TOTAL
1,702,951
1,529,272
217,938
44,259-(63,092)(9,920)ELECTRICITY-

14,00848
13,96060,369
6,585
263
2,648
6,937
938
42,998

10,932

47,952
6,423
31,48846.00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1996
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
682,118

CRUDE
OIL
39,874

682,630
11,614
12,12539,874REFINED HYDRO/WOOD/PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL
32,166
19,160158,306
19,16039,100521

148,292
13,5883,574-(7,916)2,375(251,225)(39,874)

11,979(19,160)(25,467)
39,874(19,160)(39,874)(207,721)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

430,893-

44,146-150,390

ENERGY DEMAND

430,897-

44,146-

250,538
124,977
29,981
6,515
3,697
1,329
7,828
832
9,697
20,45345,230

-

8,655

-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

121,735
92,74728,988AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,183

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

ELECTRICITY
-

-

5,280

50,769(247,772)

4,729

82,238(213)(4,425)(1,159)(10,186)(16,644)(165,381)(213)(37,103)(5,541)(921)(12,452)(26,161)

2,375

5,280

50,769683,853

150,390

2,374

5,280

50,770683,857

1,909

-

-

24,001
6,694
1,917
5,130
2,183
308
1,362
131
824
62
5,391

285,104
131,671
35,22912,774
5,880
2,965
9,189
4,289
10,521
20,51652,070

-

-

4,815

-

22,406
15,412
5,595
501
899
-

(32,678)(7,916)(2,468)

2,375

(163)

1,710

(2,266)(8,358)

3,331
1,129
1,329
3,326

869

581

16,707
14,528
779
501
899
-

-

-

1,785
1,649
136

-

117,606
15,135
102,471

2,374
1,455
919

3,669
3,669

6,359
4,685
1,674

253,529
119,340
134,189

-

1,319
690
629

-

14,674

-

-

1,261
717
543

20,437
1,408
19,029

998
804
193

-

-

-

236

1,743
804
939

-

-

3,183
509
509

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

25,365-623
24,742

13,186
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
95

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

26,180131

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

TOTAL
931,626
850,082
104,175
16,220
6,412

6,412

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

HEAT
-

884
884

4,815

14,674
-

236
5,498

-

5,498
2,618

-

NON-ENERGY USE

3,386

1,365

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)*

16.61

0.91

1,612
-

7,200
5.32

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 2

-

7,711

33
7,678

51,761
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
657
38,013

6,387

36,927
11,951
22.84

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2000
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
338,806

CRUDE
OIL
16,877336,168
11,952
9,314

298
16,579REFINED HYDRO/WOOD/PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL
40,01037,705
160,477
3
37,705
41,7783,013

150,543
12,4502,517

3
0(6,051)

1,815(52,861)(16,877)(721)(37,705)(16,206)
16,877(37,705)(16,877)(31,665)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

285,945-

39,289-154,425

ENERGY DEMAND

285,944-

39,290-149,673
67,382
19,096
2,070
2,325
836
4,924
869
6,100
21,383
24,689-11,726-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

95,05573,24621,808AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

2,827

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

ELECTRICITY
(82)

82

2,645

30,857(78,898)

2,451

47,746(99)(2,179)(661)(1,903)(12,708)(35,379)(99)(18,272)(4,236)(524)(2,904)(17,485)

1,818

2,645

30,775514,898

154,426

1,818

2,645

30,774

514,897

1,153-

12,828
3,609
1,503
1,629
1,373
194
857
137
518
65
2,942

175,380
70,991
27,623
4,042
3,699
1,865
5,780
4,484
6,618
21,44828,831

3,237-

12,135
7,052
3,821
476
786
-

(16,093)(6,051)
(988)

1,815

(391)

855

(1,001)(4,116)

7,024
343
836
3,478

882

317

8,395
6,548
585
476
786
-

-

-

2,079
1,924
156

-

121,601
19,021
102,580

1,818
1,117
701

1,826
1,826

2,856
2,421
435

225,235
99,555
125,680

-

968
507
461

-

14,663

-

-

979
526
452

19,437
1,033
18,404

828
668
161

-

-

-

196

1,447
668
779

-

-

2,827
423
423

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

21,308-401
20,908

11,094
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
85

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

15,62978

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

TOTAL
593,796524,715
82,762
14,926(1,245)-(1,245)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

HEAT
-

504
504

-

3,237

14,663
-

196
7,379

-

1,029

4,121

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)*

2.64

0.15

3,126

820
-

6,000
10.47

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 3

-

7,379

-

NON-ENERGY USE

-

7,420

21
7,399

47,202
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
422
35,771

3,258

22,911
11,15013.26

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2005
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
390,916

CRUDE
OIL
22,568434,40936,40579,898298
22,270

REFINED HYDRO/WOOD/PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL
23,40344,008187,209(10)
44,00823,383
188

182,194
7,014
1,999

1
11

(6,150)1,845(112,260)(22,568)

12,764(44,008)(8,409)22,568(42,575)(22,568)(84,246)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

278,657-

36,167-

181,059

ENERGY DEMAND

278,654-

36,166-150,376
52,71723,566
3,010
2,265
814
15,9403,528
6,582
20,825
21,128

-

8,640

-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

84,88667,806
17,079AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,282

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

ELECTRICITY
(60)

265
325

(207)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

HEAT-

37,677(128,388)

3,763

59,598(133)(2,816)(1,146)(3,508)(15,463)(71,869)(133)(23,612)(4,305)(1,709)(4,832)(21,928)

1,835

4,311

37,617

539,646

181,058

1,836

4,311

37,618539,643

1,085-

14,679
2,824
1,561
2,370
1,338
188
2,773
222
559
64
2,780

174,780
55,541
28,695
5,892
3,602
1,816
18,713
7,278
7,142
20,88925,212

3,532-

15,565
9,774
4,468
526
797
-

(6,150)
(71)

1,845

(1,433)

1,695(1,324)(5,319)

3,568
512
814
3,528

1,032

271

11,216
8,958
935
526
797
-

-

-

2,169
2,016
153

-

134,550
24,739109,810

1,836
1,132
704

2,442
2,442

3,891
3,403
488

229,773
101,538
128,235

-

1,164
609
555

-

25,784

-

-

1,410
508
902

33,641
1,117
32,523

924
751
173

-

-

-

210

1,586
751
836

-

-

5,282
453
453

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,615-401
19,215

11,253
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
85

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,506165

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

660,90989,33882,420
(207)

4,311

(20,795)(1,900)

TOTAL
668,034

816
816

-

3,532

25,784
-

210
7,871

-

1,536

635

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)*

5.15

0.26

4,952

1,396
473

6,000
11.15

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 4

-

7,871

-

NON-ENERGY USE

-

8,746

21
8,725

47,486
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
422
35,896

5,150

28,169
473
8,171
16.55

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2008
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
378,844

CRUDE
OIL
22,812426,842
18,55866,556298
22,514REFINED HYDRO/WOOD/PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL
25,671
42,575204,349
1
42,57529,658
3,987

199,729
6,024
1,403

1
0

(5,873)

1,762(107,170)(22,812)

8,615(42,575)(12,701)
22,812(42,575)(22,812)(79,895)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

271,674-

34,286-

198,476

ENERGY DEMAND

271,674-

34,285-

155,101
51,77630,144
2,872
2,095
753
16,177
4,108
6,465
20,453
20,257

-

7,349

-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

74,302
61,212
13,090AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,094

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

ELECTRICITY
357

874
517

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

HEAT-

39,529(124,309)

4,234

62,036(134)(2,767)(1,120)(3,493)(16,112)(68,901)(134)(23,200)(4,111)(674)(4,831)(22,458)

1,763

4,213

39,887550,299

198,476

1,762

4,213

39,885550,295

1,013-

15,239
2,773
1,917
2,261
1,237
174
2,814
227
549
62
3,224

178,70254,54935,229
5,632
3,332
1,680
18,991
7,434
7,014
20,51624,325

4,185-

17,303
11,226
4,790
414
873
-

(5,873)

1,762

(158)

1,100

(1,338)(5,226)

3,168
498
753
3,099

584

669,443
77,62972,464-

4,213(20,433)(1,615)

TOTAL
674,608260

12,274
10,384
604
414
873
-

-

-

2,100
1,916
184

-

153,322
34,093
119,228

1,762
1,089
673

2,818
2,818

4,675
4,050
625

238,979
105,178
133,800

-

1,008
517
491

-

24,864

-

-

1,261
392
870

32,227909
31,318

884
724
160

-

-

-

194

1,497
724
773

-

-

5,094
419
419

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415-401
18,014

9,830
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
82

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,850

239

843
843

-

-

4,185

24,864
-

194
7,379

-

-

7,379
5,055

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

1,395
-

NON-ENERGY USE

1,493

600

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

5.12

0.29

6,000
11.83

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 5

9,095

21
9,074

44,720
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
422
34,5495,235

28,775
8,093
17.23

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2009
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE
396,765

CRUDE
OIL
22,392484,287
6,543
94,065251
22,140

REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
13,33442,719WOOD/
BIOMASS205,31742,719202,014
4,769
1,466

-

(5,967)1,790

13,506
172(98,867)(22,392)

14,209(42,719)(6,833)22,392(42,719)(22,392)(68,017)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

297,899-

27,543-

199,350

ENERGY DEMAND

297,901-

27,542-

199,350

180,677
69,936
43,952
1,903
1,848
664
15,916
4,816
5,495
20,453
15,693

-

4,653

-

866

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

75,642
62,34913,292

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,839

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

HEAT
-

1

ELECTRICITY
386

850
464

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL
1(1,738)37,101(113,136)

3,594

58,453(132)(3,140)(986)(2,802)(15,279)(55,521)(132)(26,323)(4,177)(674)(4,116)(22,193)

1,791

3,708

37,488567,778

1,791

3,708

37,487567,779--

15,322
3,746
2,620
1,498
1,092
154
2,769
218
467
62
2,696

201,51773,682
48,156
3,730
2,940
1,483
18,685
7,148
5,962
20,516
19,216

-

-

3,913

-

14,018
8,512
4,361
351
793
-

1,790

(36)

1,100

(1,314)(5,929)

1,585
330
664
2,114

625

202

9,463
7,871
448
351
793
-

-

-

1,691
1,549
142

-

155,758
34,685
121,072

1,791
1,108
683

2,427
2,427

4,042
3,524
518

241,350
105,642
135,708

-

950
518
432

-

23,623

-

-

1,185
359
826

30,597877
29,721

820
670
150

-

-

-

178

1,395
670
725

-

-

4,839
396
396

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415-401
18,014

8,856
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
78

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,944

330

641
641

729,272
47,80996,167-

3,708(23,183)(5,967)

TOTAL
680,914

3,913

23,623
-

178
7,379

-

-

7,379
5,083

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

1,281
-

NON-ENERGY USE

989

779

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

4.05

0.32

6,000
11.87

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 6

8,142

21
8,121

42,791
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
422
33,592

4,705

28,343
7,768
16.24

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2010
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

3/13/2020
COAL &
COKE
383,464

CRUDE
OIL
25,309491,714
13,432
121,681251
25,058REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
14,78942,864WOOD/
BIOMASS
208,309

CHARCOAL
042,864

204,624
4,268
583

0
0

(6,067)1,820

16,4591,670(89,126)(25,309)

16,676(42,864)(7,118)25,309(42,864)(25,309)(57,667)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

294,338-

31,465-202,242

ENERGY DEMAND

294,337-

31,465-202,242

175,522
69,19743,099
1,950
1,725
642
15,133
4,423
5,172
19,09015,090

-

5,688

-

836

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

77,012
63,513
13,499AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,907

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

ELECTRICITY
507

1,053
546

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

HEAT-(1,900)36,023(105,330)

3,353

56,540(149)(3,188)(935)(2,395)(14,785)(47,756)(149)(26,726)(4,247)(836)(3,875)(21,740)

1,820

3,517

36,530569,912

1,821

3,517

36,530569,912--

15,204
3,707
2,611
1,535
1,019
149
2,633
214
439
58
2,839

197,250
72,90447,988
3,823
2,744
1,433
17,766
7,018
5,611
19,14818,814

-

-

3,913
0
3,913

-

15,111
9,432
4,439
376
863
-

1,820

(35)

1,100

(1,480)(6,020)

2,278
338
642
2,381
691
10,485
8,720
526
376
863
-

-

-

2,071
1,894
177

-

158,248
35,291
122,957

1,821
1,127
694

2,294
2,294

3,849
3,366
483

245,295
107,486
137,809

-

1,031
539
491

-

23,955

-

-

1,211
374
838

31,105913
30,192

889
724
165

-

-

-

183

1,502
724
778

-

-

4,907
430
430

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415-401
18,014

10,018
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,037417

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

194
712
712

739,453
60,270124,480-

3,517(23,539)(6,067)

TOTAL
675,242

23,955
-

183
7,379

-

7,379
5,111

-

NON-ENERGY USE

1,014

866

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

3.44

0.36

-

1,224
-

6,000
11.91

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 7

7,699

21
7,678

43,512
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
422
33,147

4,469

28,258
7,879
15.70

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2014
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCOAL &
COKE
457,195

CRUDE
OIL
24,870851,489
7,823
402,116251
24,619HYDRO/NUCLEAR/
REFINEDSOLAR/
PROD.
WIND
20,582
38,99938,99921,708
1,126

WOOD/
BIOMASS
208,378

ELECTRICITY
628

1,429
801

(153,313)(24,870)

11,128(38,999)(12,254)
24,870(38,999)(24,870)(6,627)(100,347)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

303,882-

31,711-

201,752

ENERGY DEMAND

303,883-

31,710-201,751

165,869
66,00544,330
5,841
1,356
443
13,5684,484
3,879
14,99910,965

-

6,398

-

584

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

90,61573,032
17,583

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,410

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

HEAT-

205,333
4,633
1,588

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

1,988(6,627)36,726(170,680)

3,036

61,904(146)(5,520)(874)(4,016)(15,496)(86,660)(146)(46,281)(4,639)(689)(5,470)(26,795)

1,988

3,287

37,354579,973

1,988

3,287

37,356579,975--

17,252
3,536
2,696
4,599
801
103
2,360
214
330
46
2,569

190,10269,541
49,557
11,4702,156
988
15,928
7,018
4,208
15,045
14,191

-

-

3,445
4
3,442

-

14,559
9,408
3,967
338
846
-

1,988

(33)

1,124

(1,455)(10,425)

2,530
1,031
443
2,320
516
10,320
8,610
525
338
846
-

-

-

2,186
2,004
183

-

155,810
34,289121,521

1,988
1,234
754

1,852
1,852

3,165
2,839
326

255,617
115,250
140,367

-

983
515
469

-

26,410

-

-

1,226
357
869

34,029871
33,158

1,222
1,048
174

-

-

-

173

1,825
1,048
777

-

-

5,410
430
430

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,144-427
18,717

9,522
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
78

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

19,322491

NON-ENERGY USE

3,092

589

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

5.97

0.66

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

141
794
794

1,096,072
60,212405,631-3,287(40,761)(1,780)TOTAL
750,653

26,410
-

173
7,130

-

-

7,130
5,024

-

1,119
315

6,000
10.57

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 8

8,120

23
8,097

43,916
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
450
34,022

3,975

29,930
315
9,681
17.20

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2015
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCOAL &
COKE
463,146

CRUDE
OIL
27,734

949,915
29,620516,389251
27,482

HYDRO/NUCLEAR/
REFINEDSOLAR/PROD.
WIND
25,29340,49640,49625,482190

WOOD/
BIOMASS
204,486

ELECTRICITY
1,314

1,741
427

(159,267)(27,734)

9,407(40,496)(16,673)
27,734(40,496)(27,734)(6,880)(100,347)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

303,879-

34,699-197,606

ENERGY DEMAND

303,880-

34,700-197,605

156,549
58,37743,254
5,430
1,356
443
13,5684,280
3,879
14,99910,965

-

7,812

-

584

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

98,61678,32820,289AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,581

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

HEAT-

201,836
4,790
2,140

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,064(1,816)37,028(182,433)

3,211

62,238(163)(6,158)(915)(3,448)(15,441)(92,067)(163)(51,631)(4,816)(704)(5,066)(27,986)

2,064

3,444

38,342580,035

2,063

3,444

38,343580,036--

16,844
3,127
2,705
4,275
801
103
2,360
214
330
46
2,884

181,788
61,50349,720
10,663
2,156
988
15,928
7,018
4,208
15,045
14,558

-

-

4,203
6
4,196

-

15,587
9,573
4,731
351
932
-

2,064

(36)

1,148

(1,618)(11,630)

3,761
958
443
2,524
568

141

10,573
8,755
535
351
932
-

-

-

2,753
2,528
224

-

151,122
32,981
118,141

2,063
1,282
782

1,943
1,943

3,343
3,012
331

259,840
120,073
139,767

-

1,042
546
497

-

27,243

-

-

1,254
357
897

35,119902
34,217
1,348
717
631

-

5,581

812
812

27,243

340
340

-

851
717
134

-

-

-

-

157

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,622

-

-

6,771

-

-

8,399

436
19,186

10,310
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
79

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

20,297710

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

1,192,498
89,116519,146-3,444(45,473)(6,880)TOTAL
762,467157

6,771
5,074.32-

NON-ENERGY USE

2,874

648

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

5.08

0.96

1,186
315

6,000
11.25

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 9

23
8,376

45,103
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
460
34,412

4,143

31,411
315
9,522
17.29

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2016
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

4/20/2020
COAL &
COKE
476,927

CRUDE
OIL
28,282

1,019,644
41,430584,146251
28,031REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
29,61442,351WOOD/
BIOMASS
196,968

42,351

194,495
4,172
1,699

29,63420(154,503)(28,282)

7,510(42,351)(19,615)
28,840(42,351)(28,282)(7,137)(91,391)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

322,425-

37,124-

189,831

ENERGY DEMAND

322,424-

37,123-

189,831

165,190
65,23844,481
6,156
1,356
443
13,444
4,230
3,879
14,99910,965

-

8,454

-

584

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

107,093
83,88023,2135,004

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/OtherFISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/OtherHEAT-ELECTRICITY
(295)

307
602

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,141(1,817)38,921(180,109)

3,398

65,340(170)(6,610)(955)(3,679)(15,960)(84,619)389(55,421)(4,996)(704)(5,360)(29,398)

2,141

3,592

38,626

593,739

2,141

3,592

38,627593,737--

16,472
3,494
2,802
4,846
801
103
2,339
212
330
46
1,500

190,700
68,73251,511
12,0982,156
988
15,783
6,953
4,208
15,045
13,224

-

-

4,375
17
4,358

-

16,276
10,013
4,912
363
988
-

2,141

(35)

1,148

(1,681)(12,484)

4,228
1,096
443
2,511
619
11,020
9,115
554
363
988
-

-

-

2,993
2,728
266

-

146,422
31,668
114,754

2,141
1,331
810

2,023
2,023

3,508
3,172
336

264,179
124,801
139,379

-

1,106
579
527

-

24,428

-

-

1,163
359
804

31,702938
30,764

1,463
1,282
181

-

-

-

199

2,092
1,282
810

-

-

5,004
430
430

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,106-445
19,66010,805
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
80

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

21,312746

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

141
881
881

1,256,740
103,574
586,466-

3,592(48,811)(7,137)

TOTAL
773,848

24,428
-

199
6,401

-

6,401
5,115

-

NON-ENERGY USE

3,289

537

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

5.44

1.21

-

1,254
315

6,000
11.50

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 10

8,609

24
8,585

45,921
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
469
34,7274,300

32,727
315
9,826
18.15

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2017
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

4/20/2020
COAL &
COKE
459,521

CRUDE
OIL
27,731566,806
29,480136,765251
27,480

REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
16,54338,289WOOD/
BIOMASS
171,700

38,289168,898
3,794
991

16,5430(125,611)(27,731)

14,597(38,289)(11,499)
27,738(38,289)(27,731)(7,103)(89,592)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

333,910-

31,140-164,597

ENERGY DEMAND

333,910-

31,140-164,598

157,796
58,97245,605
4,215
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
14,317
11,650

-

4,229

-

592

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

125,722
95,43330,2894,574

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/OtherFISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/OtherHEAT-ELECTRICITY
(898)

72
969

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,131(1,946)36,767(141,632)

3,344

58,789(162)(3,675)(959)(3,551)(14,635)(77,246)(155)(30,808)(4,972)(749)(5,169)(22,533)

2,131

3,607

35,869571,255

2,130

3,607

35,870571,254--

14,266
3,159
2,735
3,318
801
103
2,224
192
302
44
1,388

176,883
62,13050,269
8,276
2,156
988
15,0096,316
3,858
14,361
13,519

-

-

3,808
41
3,767

-

14,688
9,193
4,283
338
873
-

2,131

(24)

1,222

(1,618)(6,939)

1,930
744
443
1,225
331
10,044
8,317
516
338
873
-

-

-

3,023
2,748
275

-

123,108
25,401
97,706

2,130
1,325
805

2,025
2,025

3,553
3,212
341

259,560
130,143
129,417

-

887
464
423

-

22,330

-

-

1,073
338
735

28,865802
28,062

1,404
1,232
172

-

-

-

210

2,021
1,232
789

-

-

4,574
408
408

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,355-445
19,909

9,391
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
80

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

22,825872

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

150
836
836

774,243
77,368
138,726-

3,607(27,133)(7,103)

TOTAL
712,886

22,330
-

210
6,482

-

6,482
5,249.69-

NON-ENERGY USE

2,231

1,290

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

5.29

0.67

-

1,266
315

6,000
10.37

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 11

8,679

24
8,655

44,907
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
469
35,127

4,281

34,494
315
9,521
16.33

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2018
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

6/26/2020
COAL &
COKE
449,406

CRUDE
OIL
30,705531,112301
82,006251
30,454REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
13,02038,928WOOD/
BIOMASS
165,253

38,928161,383
4,085
214

13,027
7(106,873)(30,705)

17,092(38,928)(11,790)
30,705(38,928)(30,705)(7,212)(73,012)FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

342,534-

30,112-

158,042

ENERGY DEMAND

342,534-

30,112-

158,042

154,873
55,184
42,164
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

-

4,161

-

654

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

136,783
103,341
33,442
4,370

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/OtherFISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/OtherHEAT-ELECTRICITY
(605)

401
1,006

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,164(1,934)35,428(125,250)

3,569

56,003(179)(3,443)(1,006)(2,936)(14,017)(64,158)(179)(28,868)(5,048)(749)(4,723)(21,525)

2,164

3,785

34,823

571,458

2,163

3,785

34,822571,457--

12,995
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960

172,682
58,14046,902
4,632
2,156
988
15,0096,316
3,858
15,72918,952

-

-

3,656
50
3,606

-

14,117
8,827
4,097
320
873
-

2,164

(37)

1,222

(1,786)(6,502)

2,186
416
443
1,225
333
9,668
7,984
491
320
873
-

-

-

3,371
3,060
311

-

117,314
23,242
94,072

2,163
1,346
817

2,169
2,169

3,837
3,481
356

265,637
136,640
128,997

-

757
396
361

-

21,331

-

-

1,014
312
702

27,471
708
26,763

1,032
910
122

-

-

-

147

1,464
910
554

-

-

4,370
285
285

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852-445
20,407

9,078
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,122965

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

211
792
792

731,674
48,267
83,233-

3,785(25,425)(7,212)

TOTAL
696,708

21,331
-

147
6,644

-

6,644
5,307

-

NON-ENERGY USE

1,248

1,080

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

4.34

0.67

-

1,300
315

6,000
10.55

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 12

8,819

24
8,795

45,393
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
469
35,922

4,355

36,049
315
8,329
15.56

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2019
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

6/26/2020
COAL &
COKE
456,851

CRUDE
OIL
30,705

619,098
301
162,548

251
30,454REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
14,04838,392WOOD/
BIOMASS
164,524

38,392160,907
3,616-

14,127
79(112,177)(30,705)

16,178(38,392)(12,705)
30,705(38,392)(30,705)(7,321)(73,027)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

344,674-

30,226-

157,203

ENERGY DEMAND

344,674-

30,226-

157,203

154,886
55,18442,177
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

-

4,147

-

654

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

139,060
105,137
33,924
3,826

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/OtherFISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/OtherHEAT-ELECTRICITY
(834)

172
1,006

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,196(1,934)35,428(131,435)

3,030

56,674(179)(4,014)(893)(2,937)(14,117)(64,419)(179)(33,650)(5,125)(749)(4,724)(22,589)

2,196

3,359

34,594572,251

2,196

3,359

34,593572,251--

12,995
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960

172,682
58,14046,902
4,632
2,156
988
15,0096,316
3,858
15,72918,952

-

-

3,661
55
3,606

-

14,109
8,828
4,103
320
858
-

2,196

(36)

1,222

(1,786)(7,580)

2,173
416
443
1,225
333
9,662
7,988
496
320
858
-

-

-

3,300
2,998
301

-

119,048
23,621
95,427

2,196
1,368
828

2,037
2,037

3,659
3,308
351

269,300
138,469
130,831

-

749
396
353

-

18,678

-

-

927
312
615

24,180708
23,472

1,032
910
122

-

-

-

147

1,464
910
554

-

-

3,826
285
285

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852-445
20,407

9,272
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,515981

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

211
785
785

818,649
48,670163,633-

3,359(29,637)(7,321)

TOTAL
703,686

18,678
-

147
6,644

-

6,644
5,393

-

NON-ENERGY USE

1,248

1,083

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

4.34

0.74

-

1,321
-

6,000
10.66

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 13

8,819

24
8,795

45,587
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
469
35,922

4,387

36,597
8,331
15.74

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

8/26/2020
COAL &
COKE
378,623

CRUDE
OIL
32,196

460,509120
82,006251
31,945REFINED HYDRO/PROD. NUCLEAR
6,629
39,155WOOD/
BIOMASS
163,652

39,155

161,844
1,808
-

6,629
-

(72,547)(32,196)

17,511(39,155)(12,758)
32,196(39,155)(32,196)(7,435)(42,949)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

306,076-

24,141-

156,217

ENERGY DEMAND

306,075-

24,141-

156,217

125,183
47,06932,188
1,179
986
354
9,654
3,810
2,586
10,90816,447

-

4,498

-

566

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified--

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

141,394
106,977
34,417
3,629

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/OtherFISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/OtherHEAT-ELECTRICITY
(834)

172
1,006

-

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

CHARCOAL-

2,231(1,915)32,846(94,106)

4,650

50,560(188)(2,985)(1,233)(1,796)(12,745)(39,652)(188)(25,030)(5,205)(749)(3,667)(19,616)

2,231

4,639

32,012525,315

2,231

4,639

32,013525,316--

10,180
2,521
2,024
928
582
82
1,679
150
220
33
1,960

140,427
49,59037,198
2,316
1,568
791
11,333
4,912
2,806
10,942
18,970

-

-

3,663
57
3,606

-

11,478
6,750
3,980
200
547
-

2,231

(55)

1,222

(1,871)(5,638)

2,986
208
354
953
351
7,233
6,111
374
200
547
-

-

-

3,437
3,127
310

-

120,823
24,00996,814

2,231
1,390
840

3,528
3,528

6,406
5,796
610

277,818
144,827
132,991

-

741
396
344

-

17,713

-

-

895
312
583

22,977708
22,269

929
819
110

-

-

-

132

1,318
819
499

-

-

3,629
257
257

-

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

17,308-223
17,085

5,731
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
65

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,682707

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

211
582
582

661,758
40,674
83,012-

4,639(22,045)(7,435)

TOTAL
619,42117,713
-

132
6,644

-

6,644
3,890

-

NON-ENERGY USE

624

866

Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)

2.58

0.72

-

953
158

6,000
10.74

*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 14

7,575

12
7,564

37,258
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
235
31,3583,161

26,393
158
7,490
14.04

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1990:
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
110,742GASOLINE
5,275

DIESEL
12,962HEAVY KEROSENE
LPG, REF.
OIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
6,224
2,160
-

AVIATION
GAS

110,742

5,275

12,962

6,224

2,160

(110,742)

25,332

19,357

16,583

8,849

11,5601,080(110,742)

25,332

19,357(21,947)
38,603

8,849

17,521

1,080

TOTAL
137,364
137,364-(73)(5,960)(27,980)(21,947)
0(73)(5,960)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION-

30,60732,31922,807

11,00911,5601,080

109,384

ENERGY DEMAND-

30,60632,31722,807

11,008

11,566

1,080

109,384

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

3,050

21,685

-

3,658

-

28,393
7,571
4,573
12,600-TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

4,473
4,129
344

2,127
2,127

-

6,600
6,256
344

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

5,005
2,619
2,386

-

-

-

-

5,005
2,619
2,386

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

2,777
2,547
230

360
134
226

-

-

-

3,137
2,681
456

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

7,386
6,476
45
494
371

6,859
109
218

134

1,798

-

356

6,432

134

16,533
6,585
263
2,648
6,937
100

7,571
915

12,60023,22023,2203,050

600

12,926
9,351
1,949
627

627

3,650
399

-

724

627
399

724

1,000

1,798

356

100

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

3,658

88
-

1,700

NON-ENERGY USE

10

4,250

98
5,950

5,771

A1- 1537,89632,571
1,949
1,253
1,123
1,000

5,771

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SUMMARY AND COMPARISON OF RESULTS: PETROLEUM REFINING BY PRODUCT1990 Production Data from Jang, 1994

Product
Gasoline
DieselHeavy Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
Other Products
TOTAL

1990 Production from Balance (Note 2)

Oil for Magnesite as(Note 1)
Oil for Magnesite as Heavy
Crude
Production Conversion Production Fraction Production
Fraction
Production Fraction
kte/yrte/toektoe/yrof Totalktoe/yrof Totalktoe/yrof Total
950
1.07
1,017
33%
605
23%
605
26%
1000
1.035
1,035
34%
463
17%
463
20%
650
0.96
624
20%
923
35%
621
26%
210
1.045
219
7%
211
8%
211
9%
165
0.96
158
5%
445
17%
445
19%
3,053

100%

2,647

100%

2,346

100%

Notes:
1 Young Sik Jang, North Korean Energy Economics, Korea Development Institute, 1994 (pp. 54, 64)
2 The "Oil for Magnesite as Heavy" columns in this table present production as estimated in the refined products balance, which assumes
that oil used in magnesite production is heavy or residual oil. It is possible that crude oil is input to the magnesite (and/or fertilizer)
production process without previous refining. If this is the case (for magnesite), the refined products balance would be as shown inthe second pair of columns.

A1- 16

Oil for Carbide as
Feedstock
Production Fraction
Product
ktoe/yrof Total
Gasoline
605
22.87%
Diesel463
17.48%
Heavy Oil
621
23.48%
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
211
7.99%
Other Products
445
16.80%Petrochem Feedstocks
301
11.38%
TOTAL
2,647 100.00%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1996:
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
39,874
8,545
39,874

DIESEL
5,185

HEAVY
OIL
18,422

8,545

5,185

24,834
-

-

-

6,412

(39,874)

8,183

8,090

(39,874)

8,183

8,090

KEROSENE
LPG, REF. AVIATION& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
518
(504)
-

TOTAL
72,041
78,974
521
6,412

518

17
521

(10,852)

1,618

4,070

871

(25,450)
14,760

1,618

(17)
6,352

871

(163)
(2,266)(27,895)(25,467)0(163)(2,266)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION-

16,72813,275

7,570

2,136

3,565

871

44,146ENERGY DEMAND-

16,72913,274

7,570

2,137

3,565

871

44,146

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

671

7,081

-

903

-

8,655
3,331
1,129
3,326
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

553
430
123

1,232
1,218
14

-

1,785
1,649
136

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

1,319
690
629

-

-

-

-

1,319
690
629

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

856
764
92

142
40
102

-

-

-

998
804
193

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

6,352
5,639
36
395
281

5,248
95
174

96

1,199

-

292

4,884

96

3,331
226

903

3,326

10,378
10,378

671

198

5,180
4,150
779
251

251

869
320

579

251
320

579

-

1,199

292

95

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

-

65
-

NON-ENERGY USE

65-

13,186
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
95
131
-

1,365

A1- 17

16,707
14,528
779
501
899
-

1,365

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2000
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE DIESEL
16,877
4,791
8,221
298
16,579

4,791

8,221

-

HEAVY
OIL
20,809KEROSENE
LPG, REF. AVIATION& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
951
5,239
-

22,391
2,827

951(1,245)-TOTAL
56,887298
58,357
3,013(1,245)

5,424
186(16,877)

3,191

3,431

(9,538)

694

845

654

(16,877)

3,191

3,431

(15,435)
6,288

694

(771)
2,618

654

(391)
(1,001)(17,598)(16,206)
0(391)(1,001)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

7,983

11,652

11,271

1,645

6,084

654

39,289ENERGY DEMAND

-

7,984

11,651

11,270

1,645

6,086

654

39,290

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

633

10,819-274-

11,726
7,024
343
3,478
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

428
344
84

1,651
1,579
72

-

2,079
1,924
156

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

968
507
461

-

-

-

-

968
507
461

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

710
634
76

118
33
85

-

-

-

828
668
161

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,634
3,997
25
321
290

5,320
67
122

95

824

-

222

5,045

95

7,024
69

3,478

3,350
3,350

633

249

4,020
3,198
585
238

238

882
354

-

433

238
354

433

-

824

222

85

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

274

39

78
-

4,121

A1- 18

11,094
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
85

39

-

NON-ENERGY USE

8,395
6,548
585
476
786
-

4,121

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2005
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
22,5681,840
298
22,2701,840

DIESEL
12,741

12,741

HEAVY
OIL
5,678

5,470
-

KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATION& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
2,031
1,114
-

2,031

1,301
188

TOTAL
45,971
298
45,653
188
(207)

(207)
(22,568)

4,682

3,196

2,196

925

1,309

455

(22,568)

4,682(1,390)4,586(6,128)
8,395

925

(891)
3,524

455

(71)
(1,324)(9,804)(8,409)(0)(71)(1,324)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

6,522

15,937

7,874

2,956

2,422

455

36,167ENERGY DEMAND

-

6,524

15,937

7,875

2,955

2,420

455

36,166

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

844

7,387

-

410

-

8,640
3,568
512
3,528
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

909
806
102

1,260
1,210
50

-

2,169
2,016
153

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

1,164
609
555

-

-

-

-

1,164
609
555

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

-

-

796
713
82

128
38
91

-

-

-

924
751
173

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,128
3,466
22
346
295

5,372
58
107

97

1,386

-

270

5,122

97

3,568
102

410

3,528

2,395
2,395

844

188

7,761
6,563
935
263

263

1,032
611

-

185

263
611

185

-

1,386

270

85

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

50

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

116-

NON-ENERGY USE

11,253
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
85
165
-

635

A1- 19

11,216
8,958
935
526
797
-

635

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2008
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
22,812GASOLINE
5,089

DIESEL
8,745

HEAVY
OIL
9,401

KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATION& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
2,184
252
-

298
22,514

5,089

8,745

13,253
3,852

2,184

388
136

(22,812)

4,682

2,747

(2,454)

935

2,225

479

(22,812)

(32)
4,714

(1,889)4,635(10,781)
8,485

935

3,563

479

TOTAL
48,483298
52,172
3,987
-

(158)
(1,338)(14,197)(12,701)
0(158)(1,338)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,771

11,492

6,947

3,119

2,477

479

34,286ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,770

11,494

6,947

3,119

2,476

479

34,285

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

403

6,548

-

398

-

7,349
3,168
498
3,099
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

802
702
100

1,298
1,214
84

-

2,100
1,916
184

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

1,008
517
491

-

-

-

-

1,008
517
491

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

764
688
76

120
36
84

-

-

-

884
724
160

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

3,747
3,133
17
371
226

4,147
53
84

72

1,573

-

290

3,929

72

9,830
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
82

3,168
100

398

3,099

6,022
6,022

403

182

5,172
4,362
604
207

207

584
684

-

189

207
684

189

-

1,573

290

82

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

60

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS179-

NON-ENERGY USE

239
-

600

A1- 2012,274
10,384
604
414
873
-

600

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2009
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
22,392HEAVY KEROSENE
LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
353
1,522
190
-

GASOLINE
3,479

DIESEL
7,790

3,479
-

7,790
-

395
42

1,522

320
130

(22,392)

4,542

2,171

3,928

918

2,181

469

(22,392)

(87)
4,629

(2,380)4,550(4,366)
8,329

918

(1)
3,496

469

251
22,140TOTAL
35,726251
35,647172-(36)(1,314)(8,183)(6,833)0(36)(1,314)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

8,021

9,961

4,281

2,440

2,372

469

27,543ENERGY DEMAND

-

8,022

9,962

4,281

2,439

2,370

469

27,542

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

463

3,926

-

264

-

4,653
1,585
330
2,114
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

645
568
77

1,046
981
65

-

1,691
1,549
142

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

950
518
432

-

-

-

-

950
518
432

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

708
637
71

113
33
79

-

-

-

820
670
150

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

3,531
2,935
17
371
208

3,836
49
84

67

1,124

-

297

3,625

67

8,856
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
78

1,585
66

264

2,114

4,491
4,491

463

162

4,004
3,381
448
175

175

625
621

-

172

175
621

172

-

1,124

297

78

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

50

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

281-

NON-ENERGY USE

330
-

779

A1- 21

9,463
7,871
448
351
793
-

779

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2010
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

3/11/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
25,3093,649

DIESEL
9,523

HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
(426)
1,741
302
-

251
25,058

3,649

9,955
432

684
1,110

1,741

430
128

(25,309)

5,199

1,585

5,728

1,218

2,466

480

(25,309)

(135)
5,333

(3,428)
5,013(3,546)
9,310

1,218

(10)
3,956

480

TOTAL
40,099251
41,517
1,670
-

(35)
(1,480)(8,634)(7,118)0(35)(1,480)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

8,848

11,107

5,302

2,959

2,768

480

31,465ENERGY DEMAND

-

8,849

11,107

5,302

2,958

2,769

480

31,465

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

503

4,915

-

270

-

5,688
2,278
338
2,381
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

793
699
94

1,278
1,195
83

-

2,071
1,894
177

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

1,031
539
491

-

-

-

-

1,031
539
491

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

766
688
79

122
36
86

-

-

-

889
724
165

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

3,775
3,133
18
381
243

4,447
53
85

77

1,386

-

334

4,233

77

2,278
68

2,381

5,074
5,074

503

188

4,360
3,645
526
188

188

691
717

-

146

188
717

146

-

1,386

334

76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

270

63

A1- 22

10,018
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
76

355

417

866

866

-

NON-ENERGY USE

10,485
8,720
526
376
863
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2014
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

4/2/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
24,870
4,916

DIESEL
12,844HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
349
1,593
880
-

251
24,6194,916

13,695
851

349
-

1,593

1,155
275

(24,870)

4,218(2,225)

5,264

1,019

2,367

485

(24,870)

(957)
5,175

(7,279)5,053(3,949)
9,247

1,019

(69)
3,891

485

TOTAL
45,453251
46,327
1,126
-

(33)
(1,455)(13,742)(12,254)0(33)(1,455)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,134

10,618

5,614

2,612

3,247

485

31,711ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,135

10,617

5,614

2,613

3,246

485

31,710

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

336

5,238

-

825

-

6,398
2,530
1,031
2,320
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

780
683
97

1,406
1,321
86

-

2,186
2,004
183

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

983
515
469

-

-

-

-

983
515
469

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

1,084
996
88

138
52
86

-

-

-

1,222
1,048
174

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,192
3,480
13
490
210

3,852
47
83

69

1,066

-

342

3,644

69

9,522
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
78

2,530
206

2,320

4,942
4,942

336

181

4,362
3,668
525
169

169

516
703

-

143

169
703

143

-

1,066

342

78

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

825

64

427

491

589

589

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 23

10,320
8,610
525
338
846
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2015
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

4/2/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
27,734
6,670

DIESEL
14,943HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
464
2,118
1,097
-

251
27,482

6,670

14,943
-

464
-

2,118

1,287
190

(27,734)

2,926(4,426)

6,509

1,135

2,721

541

(27,734)(2,844)
5,769(10,060)
5,634(3,762)
10,307

1,135

(8)
4,347

541

TOTAL
53,026
251
52,965190-(36)(1,618)(18,327)(16,673)0(36)(1,618)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,596

10,517

6,974

3,253

3,819

541

34,699ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,596

10,518

6,974

3,252

3,819

541

34,700

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

419

6,626

-

766

-

7,812
3,761
958
2,524
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

974
855
119

1,779
1,674
106

-

2,753
2,528
224

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

1,042
546
497

-

-

-

-

1,042
546
497

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

748
681
66

104
36
68

-

-

-

851
717
134

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,555
3,822
14
508
211

3,884
52
88

69

1,404

-

398

3,665

69

3,761
192

2,524

5,041
5,041

419

149

4,424
3,714
535
175

175

568
789

-

143

175
789

143

-

1,404

398

79

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

766

85

A1- 24

10,310
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
79

625

710

648

648

-

NON-ENERGY USE

10,573
8,755
535
351
932
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2016
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

4/2/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
28,282
6,434

DIESEL
19,004HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
527
2,452
1,198
-

251
28,031

6,434

19,004
-

537
10

2,452

1,207
9

(28,282)

3,357(7,363)

6,982

1,180

2,816

537

(28,282)(2,667)
6,025(13,221)5,859(3,699)10,717

1,180

(27)
4,523

537

TOTAL
57,896
251
57,66520-(35)(1,681)(20,772)(19,615)558(35)(1,681)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,791

11,641

7,509

3,632

4,014

537

37,124ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,792

11,640

7,510

3,631

4,013

537

37,123

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

470

7,107

-

877

-

8,454
4,228
1,096
2,511
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

1,058
908
149

1,936
1,819
116

-

2,993
2,728
266

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

1,106
579
527

-

-

-

-

1,106
579
527

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

1,313
1,218
95

150
64
86

-

-

-

1,463
1,282
181

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,702
3,945
15
526
216

3,991
54
96

71

1,648

-

393

3,762

71

10,805
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
80

4,228
219

2,511

5,090
5,090

470

149

4,761
4,025
554
182

182

619
843

-

144

182
843

144

-

1,648

393

80

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

877

82

664

746

537

537

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 25

11,020
9,115
554
363
988
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2017
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

4/2/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
27,731
4,077

DIESEL
9,778

HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
157
1,363
1,169
-

251
27,480

4,077

9,778
-

157
-

1,363

1,169
0

(27,731)

5,629

(300)

3,605

1,302

3,863

499

(27,731)(2,982)8,610(6,768)6,468(1,735)
5,364

1,302

(14)
5,495

499

TOTAL
44,274251
44,0230-(24)(1,618)(13,134)(11,499)
7(24)(1,618)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,706

9,478

3,761

2,664

5,032

499

31,140ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,707

9,478

3,762

2,664

5,031

499

31,140

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

235

3,399

-

595

-

4,229
1,930
744
1,225
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

679
582
96

2,344
2,165
179

-

3,023
2,748
275

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

887
464
423

-

-

-

-

887
464
423

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

1,261
1,171
91

143
62
82

-

-

-

1,404
1,232
172

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,733
3,980
12
578
164

3,066
55
74

50

1,170

-

371

2,858

50

9,391
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
80

1,930
149

1,225

4,973
4,973

235

96

4,028
3,343
516
169

169

331
746

-

128

169
746

128

-

1,170

371

80

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

595

70

802

872

1,290

1,290

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 26

10,044
8,317
516
338
873
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2018
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

5/5/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
30,7052,879
251
30,454

2,879

DIESEL
8,263

HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
30
785
1,064
-

8,263
-

30

785

-

1,071
7

TOTAL
43,725251
43,481
7-(30,705)

6,571

423

3,872

1,441

4,302

482

(30,705)(3,041)
9,612(6,740)7,163(2,004)
5,913

1,441

(6)
6,095

482

(37)
(1,786)(13,614)(11,790)(0)(37)(1,786)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,450

8,686

3,902

2,225

5,366

482

30,112ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,449

8,687

3,902

2,225

5,366

482

30,112

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

235

3,593

-

333

-

4,161
2,186
416
1,225
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

325
269
56

3,046
2,791
255

-

3,371
3,060
311

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

757
396
361

-

-

-

-

757
396
361

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

930
865
65

103
45
57

-

-

-

1,032
910
122

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,709
3,980
12
564
153

2,872
55
74

47

1,097

-

354

2,667

47

9,078
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
76

2,186
83

1,225

4,741
4,741

235

98

3,894
3,244
491
160

160

333
746

-

128

160
746

128

-

1,097

354

76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

333

58

907

965

1,080

1,080

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 27

9,668
7,984
491
320
873
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2019
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

6/22/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
30,705
2,679

DIESEL
9,432

HEAVY
OIL

KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATION& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
2
864
1,071
-

251
30,454

2,679

9,432
-

80
79

864

1,071
0

(30,705)

6,557

(518)

3,887

1,441

4,302

508

(30,705)(3,029)9,586(7,681)
7,163(1,989)
5,913

1,441

(6)
6,095

508

TOTAL
44,753251
44,58179-(36)(1,786)(14,528)(12,705)(0)(36)(1,786)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

9,237

8,914

3,889

2,305

5,373

508

30,226ENERGY DEMAND

-

9,237

8,914

3,889

2,305

5,373

508

30,226

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

235

3,580

-

333

-

4,147
2,173
416
1,225
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

264
210
54

3,036
2,788
247

-

3,300
2,998
301

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

749
396
353

-

-

-

-

749
396
353

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

930
865
65

103
45
57

-

-

-

1,032
910
122

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

4,722
3,980
12
578
153

2,872
55
74

47

1,243

-

389

2,667

47

9,272
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
76

2,173
83

1,225

4,515
4,515

235

98

4,129
3,473
496
160

160

333
739

-

119

160
739

119

-

1,243

389

76

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

333

59

922

981

1,083

1,083

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 28

9,662
7,988
496
320
858
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2020
REFINED PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

6/22/2020
CRUDE
OIL
GASOLINE
32,196381
251
31,945381

DIESEL
5,797

HEAVY KEROSENE LPG, REF.
AVIATIONOIL& JET FUEL FUEL, NON-E.
GAS
30
43
379
-

5,797
-

30

43

-

379
-

TOTAL
38,825251
38,574-(32,196)

6,327

509

4,284

1,511

4,519

361

(32,196)(3,900)
10,228(7,002)7,512(1,850)
6,189

1,511

(6)
6,396

361

(55)
(1,871)(14,685)(12,758)(0)(55)(1,871)-FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION

-

6,708

6,306

4,314

1,554

4,898

361

24,141ENERGY DEMAND

-

6,709

6,305

4,315

1,554

4,897

361

24,141

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

-

-

235

4,097

-

166

-

4,498
2,986
208
953
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

-

-

-

-

243
188
56

3,193
2,939
254

-

3,437
3,127
310

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

-

-

741
396
344

-

-

-

-

741
396
344

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

-

-

837
778
58

92
41
51

-

-

-

929
819
110

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

-

3,030
2,376
6
564
83

1,587
33
41

25

804

-

285

1,448

25

5,731
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
65

2,986
42

953

3,679
3,679

235

117

2,907
2,432
374
100

100

351
471

-

76

100
471

76

-

804

285

65

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORSNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS

166

35

672

707

866

866

-

NON-ENERGY USE

A1- 29

7,233
6,111
374
200
547
-

-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 1990
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/NUCL.

WOOD/BIOMASSCHARCOAL

1,326

111

27

78

162

(0)

1,301
68
44

111

78
27

150
12
0

0

(378)

(111)

83

(78)

(10)

3

(22)
111

(77)

(111)

(0)
(6)

(1)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses(295)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

948.00-109.38-152.02ENERGY DEMAND

948.01-109.38-152.02

672
189
10
1
30
33

-

-

6
2
86
45
2

14

28
38
7
5
3
17
0
6
6

23.43

1.28

21.29

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGYElect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)

HEAT

-

1,703

-

1,529
218
44

9

120

(361)

8

166
(1)
(9)

(2)

(12)
(24)

(220)
(1)
(72)
(7)
(2)
(18)
(41)

2.98

9.25

120.46

1,342

2.97

9.25

120.47

1,342

-

-

70
11
11
3
1
14
11

776
51
302
62
5
60
48
6
31

(10)

3
3

(16)

12

A1- 30

TOTAL

-

(63)
(3)

ELEC.

3
-

6
3
0

46.00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 1990

CRUDE OIL
6%
REF. PROD
2%

COAL & COKE
78%

HYDRO/NUCL.
5%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
9%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
1990
0%
0%

2%

4%
5%

INDUSTRIAL

5%

TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIES
22%
58%

MILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

4%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 1990
NON-ENERGY

31

NON-SPECIFIED

6

PUBLIC/COMML

48

MILITARY60

FISHERIES

5AGRICULTURAL

62

RESIDENTIAL

302

TRANSPORT

51

INDUSTRIAL

776

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 31

700

800

900

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,
1990
REF. PROD
8%

COAL & COKE
71%

WOOD/ BIOMASS
11%
CHARCOAL
0%
HEAT
ELEC.
1%
9%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 1990

RESID.

AGRIC.

INDUSTRIALMILITARY

PUB/COMML
NON-ENERGY

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY SECTOR:
1990
RESIDENTIALAGRICULT.

FISHERIESTRANSPORT.

MILITARYNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

INDUSTRY

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
1990
PUBLIC/COMMLMILITARYFISHERIESAGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIALRESIDENTIAL

TRANSPORT

A1- 32Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 1996
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASSCHARCOAL

682

40

32

19

158

-

683
12
12
-

40
-

39
1
6

19
-

148
14
4
-

-

(251)

(40)

12

(19)

(8)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(208)
(33)
(2)
(8)

(40)
-

(19)
-

-

-

(25)
40
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

431

-

44

-

150

ENERGY DEMAND

431

-

44

-

150

251
122
3
1
25
26

-

9
17
2
1
1
13
0
1

-

2
1
118
15
5
3

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

3HEAT ELEC.

-

2
-

(8)

TOTAL

-

932

-

850
104
16
6

5

51

(248)

5

82
(0)
(4)
-

(1)

(10)
(17)

(165)
(0)
(37)
(6)
(1)
(12)
(26)

2

5

51

684

2

5

51

684

24
5
6
1
0
8
6

285
22
254
20
2
52
37
12
22.84

2
2
-

-

2

-

4
2

7

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)*
16.61
0.91
5.32
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 33Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 1996

CRUDE OIL
4%

REF. PROD
4%HYDRO/NUCL.
2%

COAL & COKE
73%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
17%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
1996
0%

42%

2%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT

5%RESIDENTIAL

8%AGRICULTURAL0%FISHERIES3%MILITARY

3%37%

PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGYESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 1996
NON-ENERGY

12NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

37

MILITARY

52

FISHERIES

2AGRICULTURAL

20

RESIDENTIAL

254

TRANSPORT22

INDUSTRIAL

285

-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 34250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,
1996
REF. PROD
7%WOOD/
BIOMASS
22%

COAL & COKE
63%

CHARCOAL
0%

ELEC.
7%

HEAT
1%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 1996
RESIDENTIALAGRICULT.
MILITARY
PUB/COMML
NON-ENERGY
INDUSTRIAL

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 1996
FISHERIESAGRICULT.

MILITARY

NON-ENERGYRESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRY

TRANSPORT.

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
1996
MILITARY
15%

PUBLIC/COMML
13%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
2%

RESIDENTIAL
13%

TRANSPORT
10%INDUSTRIAL
47%

A1- 35Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2000
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

339

17

40

38

160

336
12
9
-

0
17
-

42
3
(1)

38
-

151
12
3
-

(53)

(17)

(1)

(38)

(6)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(32)
(16)
(1)
(4)

(17)
-

(38)
-

-

-

(16)
17
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

286

-

39

-

154

ENERGY DEMAND

286

-

39

-

154

150
95
3
0
21
16

-

12
8
2
1
1
11
0
4

-

1
1
122
15
7
3

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

1

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASSCHARCOAL

0

HEAT

TOTAL

(0)

594

-

-

-

525
83
15
(1)

3

31

(79)

2

48
(0)
(2)
-

0
0

0

2
-

(6)

ELEC.

(1)

(2)
(13)

(35)
(0)
(18)
(4)
(1)
(3)
(17)

2

3

31

515

2

3

31

515

13
3
3
1
0
7
3

175
12
225
19
1
47
23
11

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)*
2.64
0.15
10.47
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 36

13.26

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE:
2000
CRUDE OIL
3%

REF. PROD
7%
COAL & COKE
57%

HYDRO/NUCL.
6%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
27%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2000
INDUSTRIAL

2%
0%

TRANSPORT

34%

RESIDENTIAL

5%2%

AGRICULTURALFISHERIES

9%MILITARY

0%

PUBLIC/COMML

44%

4%

NON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGYESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2000
NON-ENERGY

11

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

23

MILITARY

47

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

19

RESIDENTIAL

225

TRANSPORT

12INDUSTRIAL

175

0

50

100

150

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 37200

250

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY
FUEL, 2000
REF. PROD
8%CHARCOAL0%WOOD/
BIOMASS
30%

HEAT
0%

ELEC.
6%

COAL & COKE
56%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2000
TRANSPORT0%

AGRICULTURAL
1%

RESIDENTIAL
33%

FISHERIES0%MILITARY
8%
PUBLIC/COMML
6%

INDUSTRIAL
52%

NON-ENERGY
0%NON-SPECIFIED
0%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PRODUCTDEMAND BY SECTOR: 2000
INDUSTRIAL
30%
TRANSPORT
21%

NON-ENERGY
11%RESIDENTIAL
5%NON-SPECIFIED
0%AGRICULTURALMILITARY
28%

3%

FISHERIES
2%

PUBLIC/COMML
0%

ESTIMATED DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2000

MILITARY
24%

FISHERIES
1%AGRICULTURAL
4%
RESIDENTIAL
9%INDUSTRIAL
42%
TRANSPORT
10%

A1- 38

PUBLIC/COMML
11%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2005
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

391

23

23

44

187

434
36
80
-

0
22
-

23
0
(0)

44
-

182
7
2
-

(112)

(23)

13

(43)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(84)
(21)
(2)
(5)

(23)
-

(43)
-

-

-

(8)
23
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

279

-

36

181

ENERGY DEMAND

279

-

36

-

181

150
85
5
0
20
17

-

9
11
2
1
1
11
0
1

-

1
1
135
26
8
5

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

2

CHARCOAL

(0)

HEAT

ELEC.

TOTAL

(0)

668

0
0
-

661
89
82
(0)

4

38

(127)

4

60
(0)
(3)
-

-

-

0
0

-

(6)

2
-

(6)

(1)

(4)
(15)

(72)
(0)
(24)
(4)
(0)
(5)
(22)

2

4

38

541

2

4

38

539

15
4
4
1
0
9
5

175
16
230
34
2
47
28
8
16.55

2
2

1

-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.15
0.26
11.15
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 39

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE:
2005
WOOD/
BIOMASS
28%

HYDRO/NUCL.
7%

COAL &COKE
59%

REF. PROD
3%CRUDE OIL
3%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY
SECTOR 2005
43%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT
6%RESIDENTIAL

0%AGRICULTURALFISHERIES
3%9%MILITARY

PUBLIC/COMML
5%
2%

0%

NON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

32%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2005
8

NON-ENERGY-NON-SPECIFIED

28

PUBLIC/COMML

47

MILITARY

2

FISHERIES

34

AGRICULTURAL230

RESIDENTIAL

16

TRANSPORT175

INDUSTRIAL

-

50

100
150
PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 40200

250

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
BY FUEL: 2005
CHARCOAL0%WOOD/
BIOMASS
33%

HEAT
1%

ELEC.
7%

REF. PROD
7%
COAL &
COKE
52%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2005
TRANSPORT0%

AGRICULTURALRESIDENTIAL30%

MILITARY
7%

FISHERIES
0%

PUB/COMML

INDUSTRIAL54%

NONSPECIFIED
0%NONENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PRODUCTDEMAND BY SECTOR: 2005

INDUSTRIAL
24%
NON-ENERGY
2%NONSPECIFIED
0%

TRANSPORT
31%

RESIDENTIAL
6%MILITARY
31%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

PUBLIC/COMML
0%FISHERIES
3%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2005

INDUSTRIAL
39%

TRANSPORT
9%RESIDENTIAL
10%

PUBLIC/COMML
14%

MILITARY23%

AGRICULTURAL
4%FISHERIES
1%

A1- 41Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2008
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

379

23

26

43

204

427
19
67
-

0
23
-

30
4
-

43
-

200
6
1
-

(107)

(23)

9

(43)

(6)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(80)
(20)
(2)
(5)

(23)
-

(43)
-

-

-

(13)
23
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

272

-

34

-

198

ENERGY DEMAND

272

-

34

-

198

155
74
5
0
18
17

-

7
12
2
1
1
10
0
1

-

1
1
153
25
7
5

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

1

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASSCHARCOAL

0

HEAT

ELEC.

TOTAL

0

675

1
1
-

669
78
72
-

4

40

(124)

4

62
(0)
(3)
-

-

-

0
0

2
-

(6)

(1)

(3)
(16)

(69)
(0)
(23)
(4)
(1)
(5)
(22)

2

4

40

550

2

4

40

550

15
4
5
1
0
9
5

179
17
239
32
1
45
29
8
17.23

2
1
-

-

2

-

3
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.12
0.29
11.83
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 42Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE:
2008

WOOD/
BIOMASS30%

COAL & COKE
56%
HYDRO/NUCL.
6%

REF. PROD
4%CRUDE OIL
4%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2008
6%0%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT

8%43%

RESIDENTIALAGRICULTURAL
5%0%FISHERIESMILITARY

2%

PUBLIC/COMML

33%

NON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

3%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2008
NON-ENERGY

8NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

29

MILITARY

45

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

32

RESIDENTIAL

239

TRANSPORT

17

INDUSTRIAL

179
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 43250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
BY FUEL, 2008
REF. PROD
6%WOOD/
BIOMASS36%

CHARCOAL
0%

HEAT
1%

COAL &
COKE
50%

ELEC.
7%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2008
TRANSPORT0%RESIDENTIAL
27%

AGRICULTURAL
2%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
7%
PUBLIC/COMML
6%
NON-ENERGY
1%

INDUSTRIAL
57%

NON-SPECIFIED
0%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMANDBY SECTOR: 2008

TRANSPORT36%
INDUSTRIAL
21%

RESIDENTIAL
6%

NON-ENERGY
2%

NON-SPECIFIED0%MILITARY
29%

AGRICULTURAL
3%
FISHERIES
2%

PUBLIC/COMML
1%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2008
TRANSPORT
11%
INDUSTRIAL
38%

RESIDENTIAL
12%AGRICULTURAL
3%
FISHERIES
0%

PUBLIC/COMML
13%

MILITARY23%

A1- 44

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2009
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
3/11/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

397

22

13

43

205

484
7
94
-

0
22
-

14
0
-

43
-

202
5
1
-

(99)

(22)

14

(43)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(68)
(23)
(2)
(6)

(22)
-

(43)
-

-

-

(7)
22
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

298

-

28

-

199

ENERGY DEMAND

298

-

28

-

199

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMML
NON-ENERGY

181
76
5
0
18
17
1

-

5
9
2
1
1
9
0
1

-

1
1
156
24
7
5
6

CHARCOAL

HEAT

0

ELEC.

-

681

1
0
-

729
48
96
-

4

37

(113)

4

58
(0)
(3)
-

-

0

-

(6)

TOTAL

0

2

(1)

(3)
(15)

(56)
(0)
(26)
(4)
(1)
(4)
(22)

4

37

568

4

37

568

15
4
4
1
0
8
5

202
14
241
31
1
43
28
- 8

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
4.05
0.32
11.87
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

16.24

A1- 45

(6)

2
1
2
2
-

2

-

2
1

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE:
2009
COAL & COKE59%
CRUDE OIL
3%
REF. PROD
2%
HYDRO/NUCL
6%

WOOD/
BIOMASS30%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2009
1%
5%

0%

8%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT

5%RESIDENTIAL
36%

AGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY

43%

PUBLIC/COMML

NON-ENERGY

2%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2009
NON-ENERGY

8

PUBLIC/COMML

28

MILITARY

43

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

31

RESIDENTIAL

241

TRANSPORT

14

INDUSTRIAL

202
-

50

100

150

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 46

200

250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
BY FUEL, 2009
REF. PROD
5%CHARCOAL0%WOOD/
BIOMASS
35%

HEAT
1%
ELEC.
7%
COAL &
COKE
52%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR:
TRANSPORT2009
0%

AGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIAL
55%

RESIDENTIAL
29%

2%
FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%
PUBLIC/COMML
6%
NON-ENERGY
0%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2009FISHERIES
3%
AGRICULTURALMILITARY
32%

4%

PUBLIC/COMML
1%

RESIDENTIAL
6%

NON-ENERGY
3%
TRANSPORT34%

INDUSTRIAL
17%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2009
MILITARY
22%

PUBLIC/COMML
13%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
3%

RESIDENTIAL
11%

INDUSTRIAL
41%

TRANSPORT
10%

A1- 47Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2010
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
3/13/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

383

25

15

43

208

492
13
122
-

0
25
-

16
2
-

43
-

205
4
1
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

0

ELEC.

-

675

1
1
-

739
60
124
-

4

36

(105)

3

57
(0)
(3)
-

(48)
(0)
(27)
(4)

(1)

(2)
(15)

(4)
(22)

-

0
0

-

(89)

(25)

17

(43)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(58)
(24)
(2)
(6)

(25)
-

(43)
-

-

-

(7)
25
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

294

-

31

-

202

2

4

37

570

ENERGY DEMAND

294

-

31

-

202

2

4

37

570

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

176
77
5
0
18
17

-

6
10
2
1
1
10
0
1

-

1
1
158
24
7
5

15
4
4
1
0
8
4

197
15
245
31
2
44
28
- 8

1

(6)

TOTAL

1

2
-

(6)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
3.44
0.36
11.91
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 48

15.70

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2010

CRUDE OIL
4%

COAL & COKE
57%

REF. PROD
2%

HYDRO/NUCL.
6%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
31%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2010
5%
0%

43%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

8%
5%
1%0%

3%
35%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2010
NON-ENERGY

8NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

28

MILITARY

44

FISHERIES

2AGRICULTURAL

31

RESIDENTIAL

245

TRANSPORT

15

INDUSTRIAL

197
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 49250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2010

HYDRO/NUCL.
0%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
35%

REF. PROD
6%CHARCOAL
0%
HEAT
1%

CRUDE OIL
0%

ELEC.
6%

COAL & COKE
52%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2010
TRANSPORT0%

AGRICULTURAL
2%

RESIDENTIAL
26%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%
PUBLIC/COMML
6%
INDUSTRIAL
60%

NONSPECIFIED
0%
NON-ENERGY
0%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
PUBLIC/COMMLSECTOR: 2010
1%

FISHERIES3%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY
32%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NON-ENERGY
3%RESIDENTIAL
7%

INDUSTRIAL
18%

TRANSPORT
33%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2010
PUBLIC/COMML
12%MILITARY21%

INDUSTRIAL
42%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
3%

TRANSPORT
11%

RESIDENTIAL
11%

A1- 50Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2014
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
4/20/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

457

25

21

39

851
8
402
-

0
25
-

22
1
-

39
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

208

-

-

205
5
2
-

-

TOTAL

1

751

1
1
-

1,096
60
406
-

3

37

(171)

3

62
(0)
(6)
-

(87)
(0)
(46)
(5)

(1)

(4)
(15)

(5)
(27)

-

(153)

(25)

11

(39)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(100)
(41)
(2)
(10)

(25)
-

(39)
-

-

-

(12)
25
(0)
(1)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

304

-

32

-

202

2

3

37

580

ENERGY DEMAND

304

-

32

-

202

2

3

37

580

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

166
91
5
0
19
19

-

6
10
2
1
1
10
0
1

-

1
1
156
26
7
5

17
3
3
1
0
8
4

190
15
256
34
2
44
30
-10

3

(7)

ELEC.

2
-

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.97
0.66
10.57
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 51

17.20

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2014
CRUDE OIL
3%
REF. PROD
3%

COAL & COKE
61%

HYDRO/NUCL.
5%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
28%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2014
6%
0%

44%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

8%
5%
2%0%

2%
33%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2014
NON-ENERGY

10

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

30

MILITARY

44

FISHERIES

2AGRICULTURAL

34

RESIDENTIAL

256

TRANSPORT

15

INDUSTRIAL

190
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 52250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2014

HYDRO/NUCL.
0%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
35%

REF. PROD
6%CHARCOAL0%CRUDE OIL
0%

HEAT
1%

ELEC.
6%

COAL & COKE
52%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2014
TRANSPORT0%

AGRICULTURAL
2%

RESIDENTIAL
30%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%
PUBLIC/COMML

6%NONSPECIFIED
0%

INDUSTRIAL
55%

NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2014
PUBLIC/COMML
2%

FISHERIES4%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY30%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NON-ENERGY
2%RESIDENTIAL
7%

INDUSTRIAL
20%

TRANSPORT
32%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2014
PUBLIC/COMML
11%

MILITARY22%
INDUSTRIAL
46%
FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
3%
RESIDENTIAL
9%

TRANSPORT
9%

A1- 53Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2015
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
4/20/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

463

28

25

40

950
30
516
-

0
27
-

25
0
-

40
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

204

-

-

202
5
2
-

-

TOTAL

1

762

2
0
-

1,192
89
519
-

3

37

(182)

3

62
(0)
(6)
-

(92)
(0)
(52)
(5)

(1)

(3)
(15)

(5)
(28)

-

(159)

(28)

9

(40)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(100)
(45)
(2)
(12)

(28)
-

(40)
-

-

-

(17)
28
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

304

-

35

-

198

2

3

38

580

ENERGY DEMAND

304

-

35

-

198

2

3

38

580

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

157
99
6
0
20
20

-

8
11
3
1
1
10
1
1

-

1
1
151
27
7
5

17
4
3
1
0
8
4

182
16
260
35
1
45
31
-10

3

(7)

ELEC.

2
-

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.08
0.96
11.25
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 5417.29

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2015

COAL & COKE
61%

CRUDE OIL
4%

REF. PROD
3%WOOD/
BIOMASS
27%

HYDRO/NUCL.
5%ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2015
6%
0%
45%

8%

5%
2%0%

3%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

31%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2015
NON-ENERGY

10

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

31

MILITARY

45

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

35

RESIDENTIAL

260

TRANSPORT16

INDUSTRIAL

182
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 55250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2015

HYDRO/NUCL.
0%

REF. PROD
6%CHARCOAL0%WOOD/
BIOMASS
34%

CRUDE OIL
0%

HEAT
1%

ELEC.
7%

COAL & COKE
52%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2015
AGRICULTURAL
2%

RESIDENTIAL
32%

TRANSPORT
0%

PUBLIC/COMML
7%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%

NONSPECIFIED
0%

INDUSTRIAL
52%

NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2015
PUBLIC/COMML
2%

FISHERIES2%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY30%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NON-ENERGY
2%RESIDENTIAL
8%
TRANSPORT30%

INDUSTRIAL
23%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2015
PUBLIC/COMML
11%

MILITARY22%
INDUSTRIAL
44%FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
3%

RESIDENTIAL
9%

TRANSPORT
11%

A1- 56

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2016
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
4/20/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

477

28

30

42

1,020
41
584
-

0
28
-

30
0
-

42
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

197

-

-

194
4
2
-

-

TOTAL

(0)

774

0
1
-

1,257
104
586
-

4

39

(180)

3

65
(0)
(7)
-

(85)
0
(55)
(5)

(1)

(4)
(16)

(5)
(29)

-

(155)

(28)

8

(42)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(91)
(49)
(2)
(12)

(28)
-

(42)
-

-

-

(20)
29
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

322

-

37

-

190

2

4

39

594

ENERGY DEMAND

322

-

37

-

190

2

3

39

593

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

165
107
5
0
20
21

-

8
11
3
1
1
11
1
1

-

1
1
146
24
6
5

16
4
4
1
0
9
4

191
16
264
32
2
46
33
-10

3

(7)

ELEC.

2
-

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.44
1.21
11.50
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 57

18.15

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2016

COAL & COKE
62%

CRUDE OIL
4%

REF. PROD
4%WOOD/
BIOMASS
25%

HYDRO/NUCL.
5%ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2016
5%
0%

45%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

8%

5%
2%0%

3%
32%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2016
NON-ENERGY

10

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

33

MILITARY

46

FISHERIES

2AGRICULTURAL

32

RESIDENTIAL

264

TRANSPORT16

INDUSTRIAL

191
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 58250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2016

HYDRO/NUCL.
0%CHARCOAL0%WOOD/
BIOMASS
32%

REF. PROD
6%

HEAT
1%

CRUDE OIL
0%

ELEC.
7%
COAL & COKE
54%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2016
AGRICULTURAL
2%

RESIDENTIAL
33%

TRANSPORT
0%

PUBLIC/COMML
7%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%

NONSPECIFIED
0%

INDUSTRIAL
51%

NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2016
PUBLIC/COMML
2%

FISHERIES4%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY
29%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NON-ENERGY
1%RESIDENTIAL
8%
TRANSPORT30%

INDUSTRIAL
23%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2016
PUBLIC/COMML
11%

MILITARY22%

INDUSTRIAL
43%

FISHERIES
1%AGRICULTURAL

3%

TRANSPORT
11%

RESIDENTIAL
9%

A1- 59

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2017
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
4/20/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

460

28

17

38

567
29
137
-

0
27
-

17
0
-

38
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

172

-

-

169
4
1
-

-

TOTAL

(1)

713

0
1
-

774
77
139
-

4

37

(142)

3

59
(0)
(4)
-

(77)
(0)
(31)
(5)

(1)

(4)
(15)

(5)
(23)

-

(126)

(28)

15

(38)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(90)
(27)
(2)
(7)

(28)
-

(38)
-

-

-

(11)
28
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

334

-

31

-

165

2

4

36

571

ENERGY DEMAND

334

-

31

-

165

2

3

36

571

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

158
126
5
0
20
23

-

4
10
3
1
1
9
1
1

-

1
1
123
22
6
5

14
4
4
1
0
9
4

177
15
260
29
2
45
34
-10

2

(7)

ELEC.

2
-

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
5.29
0.67
10.37
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 6016.33

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2017

COAL & COKE
65%

CRUDE OIL
4%
REF. PROD
2%WOOD/
BIOMASS24%

HYDRO/NUCL.
5%ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2017
5%
0%
45%

8%

6%
2%0%

3%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

31%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2017
NON-ENERGY

10

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

34

MILITARY

45

FISHERIES

2AGRICULTURAL

29

RESIDENTIAL

260

TRANSPORT

15

INDUSTRIAL

177
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 61250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,CHARCOAL2017

HYDRO/NUCL.
0%

0%
WOOD/
BIOMASS
29%

REF. PROD
5%

HEAT
1%

ELEC.
6%

CRUDE OIL
0%

COAL & COKE
59%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2017
AGRICULTURAL
1%

TRANSPORT0%RESIDENTIAL
38%

PUBLIC/COMML
7%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%

NONSPECIFIED
0%

INDUSTRIAL
47%

NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2017
PUBLIC/COMML
3%

FISHERIES4%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY30%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

RESIDENTIAL
10%NON-ENERGY
4%
INDUSTRIAL
14%

TRANSPORT
32%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2017
PUBLIC/COMML
12%

INDUSTRIAL
40%

MILITARY
24%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL

3%

TRANSPORT
11%

RESIDENTIAL
10%

A1- 62Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2018
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
6/26/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

449

31

13

39

531
0
82
-

0
30
-

13
0
-

39
-

CHARCOAL

HEAT

165

-

-

161
4
0
-

-

TOTAL

(1)

697

0
1
-

732
48
83
-

4

35

(125)

4

56
(0)
(3)
-

(64)
(0)
(29)
(5)

(1)

(3)
(14)

(5)
(22)

-

(107)

(31)

17

(39)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(73)
(25)
(2)
(7)

(31)
-

(39)
-

-

-

(12)
31
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

343

-

30

-

158

2

4

35

571

ENERGY DEMAND

343

-

30

-

158

2

3

35

571

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

155
137
4
0
21
24

-

4
10
3
1
1
9
1
1

-

1
1
117
21
7
5

13
4
4
1
0
9
4

173
14
266
27
1
45
36
- 8

1

(7)

ELEC.

2
-

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
4.34
0.67
10.55
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 63

15.56

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2018
CRUDE OIL
4%
COAL & COKE
64%

REF. PROD
2%

HYDRO/NUCL.
6%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
24%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2018
5%
0%
8%

47%

6%
0%

1%

3%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY30%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2018
NON-ENERGY

8NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

36

MILITARY

45

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

27

RESIDENTIAL

266

TRANSPORT

14

INDUSTRIAL

173
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 64250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2018
CHARCOALHYDRO/NUCL.
0%

0%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
28%

REF. PROD
5%

HEAT
1%
ELEC.
6%

CRUDE OIL
0%

COAL & COKE
60%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2018
AGRICULTURAL
1%

RESIDENTIAL
40%
TRANSPORT
0%

PUBLIC/COMML
7%
INDUSTRIAL
45%

FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%

NONSPECIFIED
0%
NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2018
FISHERIES
3%

PUBLIC/COMML
3%

MILITARY30%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NONSPECIFIED
0%
NON-ENERGY
4%RESIDENTIAL
11%

TRANSPORT32%

INDUSTRIAL
14%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2018
PUBLIC/COMML
13%

INDUSTRIAL
37%
MILITARY
25%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL
3%

RESIDENTIAL
11%

A1- 65TRANSPORT
11%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2019
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
6/26/2020
COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

CHARCOAL

457

31

14

38

HEAT

165

-

-

619
0
163
-

0
30
-

14
0
-

38
-

161
4
-

-

(112)

(31)

16

(38)

(7)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(73)
(30)
(2)
(8)

(31)
-

(38)
-

-

-

(13)
31
(0)
(2)
-

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

345

-

30

-

157

ENERGY DEMAND

345

-

30

-

157

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

155
139
4
0
21
25

-

4
10
3
1
1
9
1
1

-

1
1
119
19
7
5

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

1

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

TOTAL

(1)

704

0
1
-

819
49
164
-

3

35

(131)

3

57
(0)
(4)
-

(64)
(0)
(34)
(5)

(1)

(3)
(14)

(5)
(23)

3

35

572

3

35

572

13
4
4
1
0
9
4

173
14
269
24
1
46
37
- 8

-

2
-

(7)

ELEC.

2
1
2
2
-

2

-

2
1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
4.34
0.74
10.66
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 66

15.74

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2019

COAL & COKE
65%
CRUDE OIL
4%
REF. PROD
2%WOOD/
BIOMASS
23%

HYDRO/NUCL.
6%ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2019
0%

4%

8%

47%

6%
0%
2%

3%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY30%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2019
NON-ENERGY

8NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

37

MILITARY

46

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

24

RESIDENTIAL

269

TRANSPORT

14

INDUSTRIAL

173
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 67250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,2019
CHARCOALHYDRO/NUCL.
0%

0%

WOOD/
BIOMASS
28%

REF. PROD
5%

HEAT
1%
ELEC.
6%

CRUDE OIL
0%

COAL & COKE
60%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2019
AGRICULTURAL
1%

RESIDENTIAL
40%
TRANSPORT
0%

PUBLIC/COMML
7%
INDUSTRIAL
45%

FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%

NONSPECIFIED
0%

NON-ENERGY
1%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2019
PUBLIC/COMML
3%

FISHERIES3%NONSPECIFIED0%MILITARY
31%

AGRICULTURAL
2%

NON-ENERGY
4%RESIDENTIAL
11%

INDUSTRIAL
14%

TRANSPORT
32%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2019
PUBLIC/COMML
13%

INDUSTRIAL
37%
MILITARY
25%

FISHERIES
0%AGRICULTURAL

3%

RESIDENTIAL
11%

A1- 68TRANSPORT
11%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
8/26/2020

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.

COAL &
COKE

CRUDE
OIL

379

32

461
0
82
-

0
32
-

REF.
PROD

HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS

7

CHARCOAL

HEAT

-

39

164

-

-

39
-

162
2
-

-

7

(7)

ELEC.

TOTAL

(1)

619

0
1
-

662
41
83
-

5

33

(94)

5

51
(0)
(3)
-

(40)
(0)
(25)
(5)

(1)

(2)
(13)

(4)
(20)

-

(73)

(32)

18

(39)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLosses

(43)
(22)
(2)
(6)

(32)
-

(39)
-

-

-

(13)
32
(0)
(2)
-

2

-

-

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.

306

-

24

-

156

2

5

32

525

ENERGY DEMAND

306

-

24

-

156

2

4

32

525

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

125
141
4
0
17
18

-

4
7
3
1
1
6
1

-

1
1
121
18
7
4

10
4
6
1
0
8
3

140
11
278
23
1
37
26
- 7

(7)

2
1
-

-

2

-

4
1

1

1

6

Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
2.58
0.72
10.74
*Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil.

A1- 6914.04

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2020

COAL & COKE
61%

CRUDE OIL
5%
REF. PROD
1%WOOD/
BIOMASS
27%

HYDRO/NUCL.
6%ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2020
4%
0%

53%

7%

5%
0%
2%

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

27%

2%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2020
NON-ENERGY

7

NON-SPECIFIED-

PUBLIC/COMML

26

MILITARY

37

FISHERIES

1AGRICULTURAL

23

RESIDENTIAL

278

TRANSPORT

11

INDUSTRIAL

140
-

50

100

150

200

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

A1- 70250

300

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL,
2020
CHARCOALHYDRO/NUCL.
0%

0%
WOOD/
BIOMASS30%

REF. PROD
5%

HEAT
1%

CRUDE OIL
0%

ELEC.
6%

COAL & COKE
58%

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR: 2020
AGRICULTURAL
1%

RESIDENTIAL
46%

TRANSPORT0%FISHERIES0%MILITARY
6%
PUBLIC/COMML
6%

INDUSTRIAL
41%

NONSPECIFIED
0%
NON-ENERGY
0%

Estimated DPRK PETROLEUM PROD. DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 2020
PUBLIC/COMMLFISHERIES
4%3%MILITARY24%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

NONSPECIFIED
0%

NON-ENERGY
3%RESIDENTIAL
14%

INDUSTRIAL
19%

TRANSPORT
30%

Estimated DPRK ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR:
2020
PUBLIC/COMML
10%MILITARY24%

INDUSTRIAL
32%

FISHERIES
0%
TRANSPORT
11%

AGRICULTURAL
3%

RESIDENTIAL
20%

A1- 71Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Electricity Balances and Electricity Demand Summary Tables/Figures
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2010
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

3/13/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

141

507

292
152

1,053
546

10,00636,023

107,71115,70656,540107,711

3,367
207
219
4
1
11,907
0.5
0.1
0.2
(41)
(885)

12,123745
788
16
2
42,864
1.8
0.3
0.7
(149)
(3,188)57,727
3,546
3,428
135
10
42,864
2
0
1
-

(665)
(4,107)(2,395)(14,785)

10,14736,530

4,955

1,449

2,469

152

129

993

10,14736,530

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,562.7
514.8
689.0
213.2
141.5
39.2
146.3
56.4
116.0
15.4
630.9

1,449.4

211.2
51.5
36.3
21.3
14.2
2.1
36.6
3.0
6.1
0.8
39.4

-

-

-

463.3
191.9
127.4
0.0
548.5
0.0
0.0
118.3

4,223
1,030
725
426
283
41
731
59
122
16
789

15,204
3,707
2,611
1,535
1,019
149
2,633
214
439
58
2,839

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,032.7
0.0
1,032.7

-

27.2

-

-

27.2

1,087
0
1,087
-

3,913
0
3,913
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

93.5
93.5
-

-

534.6
467.6
67.0

27.9
27.6
0.3

4.8
4.8
-

408.4
341.7
66.7

1,069
935
134

3,849
3,366
483

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

324.9
103.8
221.1

-

7.0
7.0

-

-

4.7
4.7

337
104
233

1,211
374
838

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

48.4
48.4

-

1.5
1.5

-

-

1.0
1.0

51
-

183
183

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

644.6

-

1,066.7

-

4.8
639.8

0.3
1,066.4

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

248.3

620.7

ELECTRICITY DEMAND

27.2

27.2

124.1

A1- 72

-

124.1

427.4

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

51

7,699
-

0.9
426.6

2,139
6
2,133

124.1

1,241

4,469

21
7,678

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)

140.7

12.1

292.4
151.7

25.1
13.0

10,006.4

860

2,573

15,705.6

1,350.4

2,573

3,367.4
206.9
219.0
4.5
0.6
11,906.5
0.5
0.1
0.2
(41.4)(885.5)

289.5
17.8
18.8
0.39
0.05
1,023.8
0.04
0.01
0.02
(4)
(76)

1,379
85
82
3
0
1,024
0.04
0.01
0.02
-

(665.4)(4,107.0)

(57)
(353)

10,147.1

872.5

4,955

1,449

2,469

152

129

993

10,147.1

872.5

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,562.7
514.8
689.0
213.2
141.5
39.2
146.3
56.4
116.0
15.4
630.9

1,449.4

211.2
51.5
36.3
21.3
14.2
2.1
36.6
3.0
6.1
0.8
39.4

-

-

-

463.3
191.9
127.4
0.0
548.5
0.0
0.0
118.3

4,223.3
1,029.6
725.2
426.5
283.0
41.3
731.3
59.4
122.1
16.2
788.7

363.1
88.5
62.4
36.7
24.3
3.6
62.9
5.1
10.5
1.4
67.8

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,032.7

-

27.2

-

-

27.2

1,032.7

-

27.2

-

-

27.2

1,087.0
1,087.0
-

93.5
0.0
93.5
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

93.5
93.5
-

-

534.6
467.6
67.0

27.9
27.6
0.3

4.8
4.8
-

408.4
341.7
66.7

1,069.2
935.1
134.0

91.9
80.4
11.5

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

325
103.8
221.1

-

7
7.0

-

-

5
4.7

336.5
103.8
232.7

28.9
8.9
20.0

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

48.4
48.4

-

1.5
1.5

-

-

1.0
1.0

51.0
51.0

4.4
4.4

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

645

-

1,067

-

-

427

183.9
-

4.8
639.8

0.3
1,066.4

0.9
426.6

2,138.7
6.0
2,132.8

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

248.3

620.7

124.1

1,241.4-

A1- 73

124.1

124.1

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.5
183.4
106.7

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2014
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

4/20/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMANDTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

174

628

397
222

1,429
801

10,202

36,726150,645

17,196

61,904

150,645

5,854
230
505
35
4
10,556
10.0
1.4
0.2
(41)
(1,533)21,073
829
1,820
124
15
38,002
36.0
5.2
0.7
(146)
(5,520)100,347
3,949
7,279
957
69
38,00236
5
1-(1,115)(4,305)(4,016)(15,496)

10,37637,354

5,100

1,716

2,389

134

114

924

10,37737,356

2,836.9
491.1
711.5
638.7
111.2
27.1
131.1
56.4
87.0
12.1
570.8

1,715.6

-

-

-

441.9
0.0
574.8
100.1
491.7
0.0
0.0
107.0

239.6
49.1
37.4
63.9
11.1
1.4
32.8
3.0
4.6
0.6
35.7

4,792
982
749
1,277
222
28
656
59
92
13
714

17,252
3,536
2,696
4,599
801
103
2,360
214
330
46
2,569

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

909.2
1.1
908.2

-

23.9

-

-

23.9

957
1
956
-

3,445
4
3,442
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

78.9
78.9
-

-

439.6
394.3
45.3

23.5
23.2
0.2

4.0
4.0
-

333.3
288.2
45.1

879
789
91

3,165
2,839
326

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

328.4
99.0
229.4

-

7.2
7.2

-

-

4.8
4.8

341
99
241

1,226
357
869

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

45.7
45.7

-

1.4
1.4

-

-

1.0
1.0

48
-

173
173

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

679.8

-

1,124.9

-

5.1
674.7

0.3
1,124.6

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

220.8

552.0

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

23.9

A1- 74

23.9

110.4

-

110.4

450.8

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

48

8,120
-

1.0
449.8

2,255
6
2,249

110.4

1,104

3,975

23
8,097

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)

174.5

15.0

396.9
222.4

34.1
19.1

10,201.7

877

3,598

17,195.7

1,478.6

3,598

5,853.6
230.4
505.5
34.6
4.0
10,556.1
10.0
1.4
0.2
(40.7)(1,533.4)

503.3
19.8
43.5
2.97
0.35
907.7
0.86
0.12
0.02
(3)
(132)

2,397
94
174
23
2
908
0.86
0.12
0.02
-

(1,115.4)(4,304.5)

(96)
(370)

10,376.2

892.2

5,099

1,716

2,389

134

114

924

10,375.5

892.2

2,836.9
491.1
711.5
638.7
111.2
27.1
131.1
56.4
87.0
12.1
570.8

1,715.6

239.6
49.1
37.4
63.9
11.1
1.4
32.8
3.0
4.6
0.6
35.7

-

-

-

441.9
0.0
574.8
100.1
491.7
0.0
0.0
107.0

4,792.1
982.1
748.9
1,277.4
222.4
28.5
655.6
59.4
91.6
12.7
713.5

412.1
84.4
64.4
109.8
19.1
2.4
56.4
5.1
7.9
1.1
61.4

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

908.2

-

23.9

-

-

23.9

908.2

-

23.9

-

-

23.9

956.0
956.0
-

82.3
0.1
82.2
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

78.9
78.9
-

-

439.6
394.3
45.3

23.5
23.2
0.2

4.0
4.0
-

333.3
288.2
45.1

879.3
788.6
90.7

75.6
67.8
7.8

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

328
99.0
229.4

-

7
7.2

-

-

5
4.8

340.5
99.0
241.5

29.3
8.5
20.8

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

45.7
45.7

-

1.4
1.4

-

-

1.0
1.0

48.1
48.1

4.1
4.1

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

680

-

1,125

-

-

451

193.9
-

5.1
674.7

0.3
1,124.6

1.0
449.8

2,255.5
6.4
2,249.1

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

220.8

552.0

110.4

1,104.1

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry-

A1- 75

110.4

110.4

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.5
193.4
94.9

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2015
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

4/20/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

365

1,314

484
119

1,741
427

10,28637,028

157,522

17,28862,238

157,522

4,981
219
727
111
0
11,230
18.5
1.7
0.2
(45)
(1,711)

17,932
790
2,616
398
2
40,428
66.6
6.2
0.7
(163)
(6,158)100,347
3,762
10,0602,844
840,428
67
6
1
-

(958)
(4,289)(3,448)(15,441)

10,651

38,342

5,311

1,637

2,475

140

119

968

10,651

38,343

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,807.6
434.3
713.8
593.7
111.2
27.1
131.1
56.4
87.0
12.1
640.9

1,637.2

-

-

-

390.9
0.0
534.4
100.1
491.7
0.0
0.0
120.2

233.9
43.4
37.6
59.4
11.1
1.4
32.8
3.0
4.6
0.6
40.1

4,679
869
751
1,187
222
28
656
59
92
13
801

16,844
3,127
2,705
4,275
801
103
2,360
214
330
46
2,884

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,109.2
1.8
1,107.4

-

29.1

-

-

29.1

1,167
2
1,166
-

4,203
6
4,196
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

83.7
83.7
-

-

464.3
418.3
46.0

24.9
24.6
0.2

4.3
4.3
-

351.5
305.7
45.8

929
837
92

3,343
3,012
331

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

335.8
99.1
236.6

-

7.5
7.5

-

-

5.0
5.0

348
99
249

1,254
357
897

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

41.5
41.5

-

1.3
1.3

-

-

0.9
0.9

44
44

157
157

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

703.2

-

1,163.7

-

-

466.3

8,399
-

5.2
698.0

0.3
1,163.3

1.0
465.3

2,333
6
2,327

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

230.2

575.5

115.1

1,151

4,143

ELECTRICITY DEMAND

29.1

29.1

115.1

A1- 76115.1

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

23
8,376

21.9%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)

364.9

31.4

483.7
118.7

41.6
10.2

10,285.6

884

3,762

17,288.5

1,486.5

3,762

4,981.1
219.4
726.6
110.6
0.5
11,229.9
18.5
1.7
0.2
(45.3)(1,710.6)

428.3
18.9
62.5
9.51
0.04
965.6
1.59
0.15
0.02
(4)
(147)

2,397
90
240
68
0
966
1.59
0.15
0.02
-

(957.8)(4,289.2)

(82)
(369)

10,650.5

915.8

5,309

1,637

2,475

140

119

968

10,649.1

915.8

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,807.6
434.3
713.8
593.7
111.2
27.1
131.1
56.4
87.0
12.1
640.9

1,637.2

233.9
43.4
37.6
59.4
11.1
1.4
32.8
3.0
4.6
0.6
40.1

-

-

-

390.9
0.0
534.4
100.1
491.7
0.0
0.0
120.2

4,678.8
868.6
751.4
1,187.5
222.4
28.5
655.6
59.4
91.6
12.7
801.1

402.3
74.7
64.6
102.1
19.1
2.4
56.4
5.1
7.9
1.1
68.9

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,107.4

-

29.1

-

-

29.1

1,107.4

-

29.1

-

-

29.1

1,165.7
1,165.7
-

100.4
0.2
100.2
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

83.7
83.7
-

-

464.3
418.3
46.0

24.9
24.6
0.2

4.3
4.3
-

351.5
305.7
45.8

928.6
836.6
92.0

79.8
71.9
7.9

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

336
99.1
236.6

-

7
7.5

-

-

5
5.0

348.2
99.1
249.1

29.9
8.5
21.4

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

41.5
41.5

-

1.3
1.3

-

-

0.9
0.9

43.7
43.7

3.8
3.8

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

703

-

1,164

-

-

466

200.6
-

5.2
698.0

0.3
1,163.3

1.0
465.3

2,333.2
6.5
2,326.7

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

230.2

575.5

115.1

1,151.0-

A1- 77

115.1

115.1

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.6
200.1
99.0

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2016
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

4/20/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

(82)

(295)

85
167

307
602

10,811

38,921

152,401

18,15065,340152,401

5,331
216
992
111
2
11,466
30.0
2.1
0.2
(47)
(1,836)19,192
777
3,570
400
6
41,279
108.0
7.7
0.7
(170)
(6,610)91,391
3,699
13,221
2,667
27
41,279108
81-(1,022)(4,433)(3,679)(15,960)

10,73038,626

5,222

1,692

2,545

146

124

1,002

10,73038,627

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,654.4
485.3
739.5
673.1
111.2
27.1
129.9
55.9
87.0
12.1
333.2

1,692.4

-

-

-

436.8
605.8
100.1
487.3
0.0
0.0
62.5

228.8
48.5
38.9
67.3
11.1
1.4
32.5
2.9
4.6
0.6
20.8

4,576
971
778
1,346
222
28
650
59
92
13
417

16,472
3,494
2,802
4,846
801
103
2,339
212
330
46
1,500

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,154.9
4.8
1,150.1

-

30.3

-

-

30.3

1,215
5
1,211
-

4,375
17
4,358
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

88.1
88.1
-

-

487.2
440.5
46.7

26.2
26.0
0.2

4.5
4.5
-

368.4
322.0
46.4

974
881
93

3,508
3,172
336

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

312.0
99.8
212.2

-

6.7
6.7

-

-

4.5
4.5

323
100
223

1,163
359
804

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

52.6
52.6

-

1.7
1.7

-

-

1.1
1.1

55
55

199
199

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

720.7

-

1,192.7

-

-

478.0

8,609
-

5.3
715.5

0.3
1,192.4

1.0
477.0

2,391
7
2,385

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

238.9

597.2

119.4

1,194

4,300

ELECTRICITY DEMAND

30.3

30.3

119.4

A1- 78

119.4

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

24
8,585

22.3%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)(81.9)

(7.0)

85.3
167.2

7.3
14.4

10,811.4

930

3,640

18,149.9

1,560.6

3,640

5,331.2
215.8
991.6
111.1
1.6
11,466.4
30.0
2.1
0.2
(47.1)(1,836.2)

458.4
18.6
85.3
9.56
0.13
985.9
2.58
0.18
0.02
(4)
(158)

2,183
88
316
64
1
986
2.58
0.18
0.02
-

(1,022.0)(4,433.2)

(88)
(381)

10,729.5

922.6

5,217

1,692

2,545

146

124

1,002

10,724.9

922.6

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,654.4
485.3
739.5
673.1
111.2
27.1
129.9
55.9
87.0
12.1
333.2

1,692.4

228.8
48.5
38.9
67.3
11.1
1.4
32.5
2.9
4.6
0.6
20.8

-

-

-

436.8
605.8
100.1
487.3
0.0
0.0
62.5

4,575.6
970.7
778.5
1,346.2
222.4
28.5
649.7
58.9
91.6
12.7
416.5

393.4
83.5
66.9
115.8
19.1
2.4
55.9
5.1
7.9
1.1
35.8

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,150.1

-

30.3

-

-

30.3

1,150.1

-

30.3

-

-

30.3

1,210.6
1,210.6
-

104.5
0.4
104.1
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

88.1
88.1
-

-

487.2
440.5
46.7

26.2
26.0
0.2

4.5
4.5
-

368.4
322.0
46.4

974.4
881.0
93.4

83.8
75.8
8.0

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

312
99.8
212.2

-

7
6.7

-

-

4
4.5

323.2
99.8
223.4

27.8
8.6
19.2

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

52.6
52.6

-

1.7
1.7

-

-

1.1
1.1

55.3
55.3

4.8
4.8

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

721

-

1,193

-

-

478

205.6
-

5.3
715.5

0.3
1,192.4

1.0
477.0

2,391.5
6.6
2,384.8

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

238.9

597.2

119.4

1,194.4-

A1- 79

119.4

119.4

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.6
205.1
102.7

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2017
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

4/20/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMANDTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

(249)

(898)

20
269

72
969

10,21336,767

138,424

16,33058,789138,424

5,226
101
508
124
1
10,323
44.3
2.5
0.2
(45)
(1,021)

18,814
364
1,827
447
3
37,164
159.3
9.1
0.7
(162)
(3,675)89,592
1,735
6,768
2,982
14
37,164
159
9
1
-

(986)
(4,065)(3,551)(14,635)

9,964

35,869

4,736

1,431

2,523

145

123

1,005

9,964

35,870

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

2,333.7
438.7
721.7
460.8
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
11.5
308.6

1,430.9

-

-

-

394.9
0.0
414.8
100.1
463.4
0.0
0.0
57.9

198.1
43.9
38.0
46.1
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.6
19.3

3,963
877
760
922
222
28
618
53
84
12
386

14,266
3,159
2,735
3,318
801
103
2,224
192
302
44
1,388

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

1,005.5
11.3
994.2

-

26.2

-

-

26.2

1,058
11
1,047
-

3,808
41
3,767
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

89.2
89.2
-

-

493.5
446.1
47.4

26.5
26.3
0.2

4.5
4.5
-

373.2
326.1
47.1

987
892
95

3,553
3,212
341

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

287.8
93.8
194.0

-

6.1
6.1

-

-

4.1
4.1

298
94
204

1,073
338
735

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

55.3
55.3

-

1.7
1.7

-

-

1.2
1.2

58
-

210
210

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

726.6

-

1,202.4

-

5.3
721.3

0.3
1,202.1

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

237.8

594.6

26.2

A1- 80

26.2

118.9

-

118.9

481.8

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

58

8,679
-

1.0
480.8

2,411
7
2,404

118.9

1,189

4,281

24
8,655

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)(249.4)(21.4)

19.9
269.3

1.7
23.2

10,213.1

878

3,306

16,330.4

1,404.2

3,306

5,226.2
101.2
507.6
124.2
0.8
10,323.4
44.3
2.5
0.2
(44.9)(1,020.7)

449.4
8.7
43.6
10.68
0.07
887.6
3.81
0.22
0.02
(4)
(88)

2,140
41
162
71
0
888
3.81
0.22
0.02
-

(986.5)(4,065.2)

(85)
(350)

9,963.7

856.7

4,725

1,431

2,523

145

123

1,005

9,952.5856.7

2,333.7
438.7
721.7
460.8
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
11.5
308.6

1,430.9

198.1
43.9
38.0
46.1
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.6
19.3

-

-

-

394.9
0.0
414.8
100.1
463.4
0.0
0.0
57.9

3,962.8
877.5
759.7
921.7
222.4
28.5
617.8
53.5
83.9
12.2
385.7

340.7
75.4
65.3
79.3
19.1
2.4
53.1
4.6
7.2
1.0
33.2

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

994.2

-

26.2

-

-

26.2

994.2

-

26.2

-

-

26.2

1,046.5
1,046.5
-

91.0
1.0
90.0
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

89.2
89.2
-

-

493.5
446.1
47.4

26.5
26.3
0.2

4.5
4.5
-

373.2
326.1
47.1

987.0
892.2
94.7

84.9
76.7
8.1

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

288
93.8
194.0

-

6
6.1

-

-

4
4.1

298.0
93.8
204.2

25.6
8.1
17.6

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

55.3
55.3

-

1.7
1.7

-

-

1.2
1.2

58.3
58.3

5.0
5.0

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

727

-

1,202

-

-

482

207.3
-

5.3
721.3

0.3
1,202.1

1.0
480.8

2,410.8
6.6
2,404.2

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

237.8

594.6

118.9

1,189.1

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry-

A1- 81

118.9

118.9

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.6
206.7
102.2

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2018
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

6/26/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

(168)

(605)

111
279

401
1,006

9,841

35,428

122,775

15,55656,003

122,775

4,259
117
505
127
0
10,485
59.7
2.9
0.2
(50)
(956)

15,332
421
1,820
456
1
37,746
214.9
10.5
0.7
(179)
(3,443)73,012
2,004
6,740
3,041
6
37,746
215
11
1
-

(816)
(3,893)(2,936)(14,017)

9,673

34,823

4,535

1,247

2,572

174

131

1,012

9,673

34,822

2,182.4
410.6
673.4
257.9
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
12.6
435.6

1,246.7

-

-

-

369.5
0.0
232.1
100.1
463.4
0.0
81.7

180.5
41.1
35.4
25.8
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.7
27.2

3,610
821
709
516
222
28
618
53
84
13
545

12,995
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

965.6
14.0
951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,016
14
1,002
-

3,656
50
3,606
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

96.7
96.7
-

-

532.9
483.4
49.4

53.5
52.2
1.3

10.5
10.5
-

372.2
324.0
48.1

1,066
967
99

3,837
3,481
356

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

271.9
86.6
185.3

-

5.9
5.9

-

-

3.9
3.9

282
87
195

1,014
312
702

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

38.7
38.7

-

1.2
1.2

-

-

0.8
0.8

41
41

147
147

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

738.2

-

1,221.8

-

-

489.6

8,819
-

5.3
732.9

0.3
1,221.5

1.0
488.6

2,450
7
2,443

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

242.0

604.9

121.0

1,210

4,355

ELECTRICITY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

25.0

25.0

121.0

A1- 82121.0

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

24
8,795

25.3%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)(168.0)(14.4)

111.3
279.4

9.6
24.0

9,841.1

846

2,932

15,556.4

1,337.6

2,932

4,259.0
116.9
505.5
126.7
0.3
10,485.1
59.7
2.9
0.2
(49.8)(956.4)

366.2
10.1
43.5
10.89
0.03
901.6
5.13
0.25
0.02
(4)
(82)

1,744
48
161
73
0
902
5.13
0.25
0.02
-

(815.6)(3,893.5)

(70)
(335)

9,673.0

831.7

4,522

1,247

2,572

174

131

1,012

9,658.9831.7

2,182.4
410.6
673.4
257.9
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
12.6
435.6

1,246.7

180.5
41.1
35.4
25.8
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.7
27.2

-

-

-

369.5
0.0
232.1
100.1
463.4
0.0
81.7

3,609.6
821.1
708.8
515.8
222.4
28.5
617.8
53.5
83.9
13.3
544.5

310.4
70.6
60.9
44.4
19.1
2.4
53.1
4.6
7.2
1.1
46.8

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,001.7
1,001.7
-

87.3
1.2
86.1
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

96.7
96.7
-

-

532.9
483.4
49.4

53.5
52.2
1.3

10.5
10.5
-

372.2
324.0
48.1

1,065.7
966.9
98.8

91.6
83.1
8.5

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

272
86.6
185.3

-

6
5.9

-

-

4
3.9

281.6
86.6
195.0

24.2
7.4
16.8

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

38.7
38.7

-

1.2
1.2

-

-

0.8
0.8

40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

738

-

1,222

-

-

490

210.6
-

5.3
732.9

0.3
1,221.5

1.0
488.6

2,449.6
6.6
2,443.0

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

242.0

604.9

121.0

1,209.8

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry-

A1- 83

121.0

121.0

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.6
210.1
104.0

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2019
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

6/26/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONTOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

(232)

(834)

48
279

172
1,006

9,841

35,428124,123

15,74356,674

124,123

4,260
116
576
126
0
10,586
75.1
3.3
0.2
(50)
(1,115)

15,336
418
2,074
454
1
38,109
270.2
11.9
0.7
(179)
(4,014)73,027
1,989
7,681
3,029
6
38,109
270
12
1
-

(816)
(3,921)(2,937)(14,117)

9,609

34,594

4,511

1,247

2,551

173

132

996

9,609

34,5932,182.4
410.6
673.4
257.9
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
12.6
435.6

1,246.7

-

-

-

369.5
0.0
232.1
100.1
463.4
0.0
81.7

180.5
41.1
35.4
25.8
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.7
27.2

3,610
821
709
516
222
28
618
53
84
13
545

12,995
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

966.9
15.3
951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,017
15
1,002
-

3,661
55
3,606
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

91.9
91.9
-

-

508.1
459.4
48.7

50.9
49.6
1.3

10.0
10.0
-

355.4
307.9
47.4

1,016
919
97

3,659
3,308
351

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

248.9
86.6
162.2

-

5.1
5.1

-

-

3.4
3.4

257
87
171

927
312
615

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

38.7
38.7

-

1.2
1.2

-

-

0.8
0.8

41
41

147
147

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

738.2

-

1,221.8

-

-

489.6

8,819
-

5.3
732.9

0.3
1,221.5

1.0
488.6

2,450
7
2,443

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

243.7

609.3

121.9

1,219

4,387

ELECTRICITY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

25.0

25.0

121.9

A1- 84

121.9

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

24
8,795

25.5%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)(231.7)(19.9)

47.7
279.4

4.1
24.0

9,841.0

846

2,965

15,742.9

1,353.6

2,965

4,259.9
116.0
576.0
126.2
0.3
10,585.8
75.1
3.3
0.2
(49.8)(1,114.9)

366.3
10.0
49.5
10.85
0.03
910.2
6.45
0.29
0.02
(4)
(96)

1,744
48
183
72
0
910
6.45
0.29
0.02
-

(815.9)(3,921.3)

(70)
(337)

9,609.3

826.3

4,495

1,247

2,551

173

132

996

9,594.0826.2

2,182.4
410.6
673.4
257.9
111.2
27.1
123.6
50.8
79.7
12.6
435.6

1,246.7

180.5
41.1
35.4
25.8
11.1
1.4
30.9
2.7
4.2
0.7
27.2

-

-

-

369.5
0.0
232.1
100.1
463.4
0.0
81.7

3,609.6
821.1
708.8
515.8
222.4
28.5
617.8
53.5
83.9
13.3
544.5

310.4
70.6
60.9
44.4
19.1
2.4
53.1
4.6
7.2
1.1
46.8

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,001.7
1,001.7
-

87.4
1.3
86.1
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

91.9
91.9
-

-

508.1
459.4
48.7

50.9
49.6
1.3

10.0
10.0
-

355.4
307.9
47.4

1,016.3
918.8
97.5

87.4
79.0
8.4

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

249
86.6
162.2

-

5
5.1

-

-

3
3.4

257.4
86.6
170.8

22.1
7.4
14.7

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

38.7
38.7

-

1.2
1.2

-

-

0.8
0.8

40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

738

-

1,222

-

-

490

210.6
-

5.3
732.9

0.3
1,221.5

1.0
488.6

2,449.6
6.6
2,443.0

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

243.7

609.3

121.9

1,218.6

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry-

A1- 85

121.9

121.9

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.6
210.1
104.8

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTED

6/26/2020

MOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY
(TJ)

(232)

(834)

48
279

172
1,006

9,124

32,846

94,384

14,04550,56094,384

2,505
108
525
163
0
10,657
82.7
3.5
0.2
(52)
(829)

9,018
388
1,891
585
1
38,366
297.9
12.5
0.7
(188)
(2,985)42,949
1,850
7,002
3,900
6
38,366
298
13
1
-

(499)
(3,540)(1,796)(12,745)

8,892

32,012

3,963

936

2,552

177

105

1,160

8,893

32,013

1,750.9
350.2
534.1
128.9
80.9
21.7
93.3
39.5
58.0
8.8
435.6

935.6

-

-

-

315.2
0.0
116.1
72.8
349.9
0.0
0.0
81.7

141.4
35.0
28.1
12.9
8.1
1.1
23.3
2.1
3.1
0.5
27.2

2,828
700
562
258
162
23
467
42
61
9
545

10,180
2,521
2,024
928
582
82
1,679
150
220
33
1,960

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,018
16
1,002
-

3,663
57
3,606
-

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

967.5
15.9
951.6

-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

161.0
161.0
-

-

889.7
805.0
84.8

89.2
86.9
2.2

17.5
17.5
-

622.1
539.6
82.5

1,779
1,610
170

6,406
5,796
610

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

240.5
86.6
153.9

-

4.9
4.9

-

-

3.2
3.2

249
87
162

895
312
583

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

34.9
34.9

-

1.1
1.1

-

-

0.7
0.7

37
37

132
132

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

632.9

-

1,050.7

-

-

420.7

7,575
-

2.6
630.3

0.2
1,050.5

0.5
420.2

2,104
3
2,101

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

175.6

439.0

87.8

878

3,161

25.0

25.0

87.8

A1- 86

87.8

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (TJ)

12
7,564

23.7%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Following is same as above, but with energy in units of Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kTOE)

UNITS: GIGAWATT-HOURS (GWh)
EXCEPT AS NOTEDMOTORS AND
DRIVESPROCESSELECTRICITY

END USESSPACE ANDWATER
LIGHTINGHEATINGAIR
CONDITIONING

OTHER END
USES

ENERGY SUPPLY
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION-Electricity Generation, of which:--Coal-fired--Heavy Fuel Oil-fired--Diesel-fueled--Gasoline-fueled--LPG-fueled--Natural Gas-fired--Other Fossil-fuel-fired--Hydroelectric Power--Solar Power--Wind Power--Tidal Power--Nuclear PowerPetroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses

-

-

-

-

-

-

ELECTRICITY FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMAND

41.868

Conversion, TJ per kTOE:
TOTALELECTRICITY
(GWh)

TOTAL
ELECTRICITY(kTOE)(231.7)(19.9)

47.7
279.4

4.1
24.0

9,124.0

785

2,254

14,044.5

1,207.6

2,254

2,505.0
107.9
525.2
162.5
0.3
10,657.2
82.7
3.5
0.2
(52.2)(829.3)

215.4
9.3
45.2
13.97
0.03
916.4
7.11
0.30
0.02
(4)
(71)

1,026
44
167
93
0
916
7.11
0.30
0.02
-

(498.8)(3,540.3)

(43)
(304)

8,892.3

764.6

3,947

936

2,552

177

105

1,160

8,876.7764.6

1,750.9
350.2
534.1
128.9
80.9
21.7
93.3
39.5
58.0
8.8
435.6

935.6

141.4
35.0
28.1
12.9
8.1
1.1
23.3
2.1
3.1
0.5
27.2

-

-

-

315.2
0.0
116.1
72.8
349.9
0.0
0.0
81.7

2,827.8
700.4
562.2
257.9
161.7
22.8
466.5
41.6
61.0
9.3
544.5

243.1
60.2
48.3
22.2
13.9
2.0
40.1
3.6
5.2
0.8
46.8

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

951.6

-

25.0

-

-

25.0

1,001.7
1,001.7
-

87.5
1.4
86.1
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

161.0
161.0
-

-

889.7
805.0
84.8

89.2
86.9
2.2

17.5
17.5
-

622.1
539.6
82.5

1,779.5
1,609.9
169.5

153.0
138.4
14.6

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

240
86.6
153.9

-

5
4.9

-

-

3
3.2

248.6
86.6
162.0

21.4
7.4
13.9

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Collectives/Processing/Other

34.9
34.9

-

1.1
1.1

-

-

0.7
0.7

36.7
36.7

3.2
3.2

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

633

-

1,051

-

-

421

180.9
-

2.6
630.3

0.2
1,050.5

0.5
420.2

2,104.3
3.3
2,101.0

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

175.6

439.0

87.8

878.1

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry-

A1- 8787.8

87.8

GENERATION
FUEL/ ENERGYINPUTS (kTOE)

0.3
180.7
75.5

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEELECTRICITY END-USE SUMMARIES AND GRAPHICS
Estimated Residential Electricity Use (GWh)

Urban--2010
Rural--2010
Urban--2014
Rural--2014
Urban--2015
Rural--2015
Urban--2016
Rural--2016
Urban--2017
Rural--2017
Urban--2018
Rural--2018
Urban--2019
Rural--2019
Urban--2020
Rural--2020

Motors and Drives
93.51
78.86
83.66
88.10
89.22
96.69
91.88
160.99-Lighting
467.5567.02
394.3045.35
418.3046.01
440.5246.68
446.1147.37
483.4349.42
459.4048.74
804.97
84.77

Space and
Water
Air
Heating
Conditioning
27.55
4.76
0.34
23.23
4.02
0.23
24.65
4.26
0.23
25.96
4.49
0.23
26.29
4.55
0.24
52.20
10.50
1.31
49.60
9.98
1.29
86.91
17.48
2.25
-

A1- 88Other End
Uses
341.7366.68
288.1945.12
305.7345.78
321.9746.45
326.0647.13
324.0548.11
307.9447.45
539.58
82.52

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 89

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Residential Electricity Use (GWh)
1990
2,061.21
916.09

Urban
Rural

1996
1,301.43
464.97

2000
672.53120.84

2005
945.15135.692008
1,124.95
173.702009
978.91143.992010
935.11134.04

2014
788.6190.69

2015
836.6092.01

Estimated DPRK Residential Electricity Use by Subsector, 1990
through 2020
3,500

Gigawatt-hours

3,000
2,500

2,000

Rural

Urban

1,500
1,000
500
-

1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 902016
881.0393.36

2017892.2294.75

2018966.8698.84

2019918.7997.48

2020
1,609.9
169.54

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Public/Commercial Electricity Use (GWh)
1990
3,036.8

Public/Commercial

1996
1,774.1

2000
905.1

2005
1,430.4

2008
1,454.1

2009
1,306.9

2010
1,241.4

2014
1,104.1

Estimated DPRK Public/Commercial Electricity Use, 1990
through 2020
3,500

Gigawatt-hours

3,000
2,500

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 912015
1,189.1

2016
1,189.1

2017
1,189.1

2018
1,209.8

2019
1,218.6

2020
878.1

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Public/Commercial Electricity Use by End Use (GWh)

2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Motors and Drives
248.28220.81230.19238.88237.83241.97243.72
175.61

Lighting
620.71552.03575.49597.19594.56604.91
609.29439.03

Space and
Water
Air
Heating
Conditioning
124.14124.14110.41110.41
115.10115.10119.44
119.44118.91118.91120.98120.98121.86121.8687.81
87.81

Other End
Uses
124.14110.41
115.10119.44118.91120.98121.8687.81

Estimated Public/Commercial Electricity Use by End Use, 2010 and2014 through 2020
Other End Uses
Space and Water Heating
Motors and Drives

1,400

Air Conditioning
Lighting

Gigawatt-hours

1,200
1,000
800

600
400
200
2010

2014

2015

2016

A1- 92

2017

2018

2019

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Imdustrial Electricity Use (GWh)
Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
TOTAL

1990
4,830.00
1,210.00
5,247.47
1,837.84
259.001,146.23
110.00693.5852.61
4,125.00
19,512

1996
1,859.55
532.401,424.87
606.4985.47
378.2536.30
228.8817.36
1,497.38
6,667

2000
1,002.59
417.45452.59381.4953.76
237.9337.95
143.9718.15
817.35
3,563

2005
784.39433.66658.24371.5452.36
770.2661.60
155.3617.68
772.294,077

2008
770.39532.40628.19343.6848.43
781.7362.92
152.5917.36
895.434,233

2009
1,040.58
727.77416.08303.2442.73
769.1260.50
129.7017.36
748.894,256

2010
1,029.60
725.22426.50283.0341.31
731.2959.40
122.0716.20
788.66
4,223

Fraction of Total
Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
TOTAL

1990
24.8%
6.2%
26.9%
9.4%
1.3%
5.9%
0.6%
3.6%
0.3%
21.1%
100.0%

1996
27.9%
8.0%
21.4%
9.1%
1.3%
5.7%
0.5%
3.4%
0.3%
22.5%
100.0%

2000
28.1%
11.7%
12.7%
10.7%
1.5%
6.7%
1.1%
4.0%
0.5%
22.9%
100.0%

2005
19.2%
10.6%
16.1%
9.1%
1.3%
18.9%
1.5%
3.8%
0.4%
18.9%
100.0%

2008
18.2%
12.6%
14.8%
8.1%
1.1%
18.5%
1.5%
3.6%
0.4%
21.2%
100.0%

2009
24.4%
17.1%
9.8%
7.1%
1.0%
18.1%
1.4%
3.0%
0.4%
17.6%
100.0%

2010
24.4%
17.2%
10.1%
6.7%
1.0%
17.3%
1.4%
2.9%
0.4%
18.7%
100.0%

A1- 932014
2015
982.10868.60748.94751.401,277.41 1,187.49
222.38222.3828.49
28.49
655.64655.64
59.40
59.40
91.55
91.55
12.73
12.73
713.50801.08
4,792
4,679

2014
20.5%
15.6%
26.7%
4.6%
0.6%
13.7%
1.2%
1.9%
0.3%
14.9%
100.0%

2015
18.6%
16.1%
25.4%
4.8%
0.6%
14.0%
1.3%
2.0%
0.3%
17.1%
100.0%

2016
970.69778.47
1,346.22
222.3828.49
649.68
58.85
91.55
12.73
416.544,576

2017
877.45759.70921.69222.3828.49
617.82
53.46
83.92
12.15
385.693,963

2018821.10708.82515.79222.3828.49
617.82
53.46
83.92
13.31
544.503,610

2019821.10708.82515.79222.3828.49
617.82
53.46
83.92
13.31
544.503,610

2020700.35562.17257.90161.7322.79
466.51
41.58
61.03
9.26
544.50
2,828

2016
21.2%
17.0%
29.4%
4.9%
0.6%
14.2%
1.3%
2.0%
0.3%
9.1%
100.0%

2017
22.1%
19.2%
23.3%
5.6%
0.7%
15.6%
1.3%
2.1%
0.3%
9.7%
100.0%

2018
22.7%
19.6%
14.3%
6.2%
0.8%
17.1%
1.5%
2.3%
0.4%
15.1%
100.0%

2019
22.7%
19.6%
14.3%
6.2%
0.8%
17.1%
1.5%
2.3%
0.4%
15.1%
100.0%

2020
24.8%
19.9%
9.1%
5.7%
0.8%
16.5%
1.5%
2.2%
0.3%
19.3%
100.0%Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 94

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 95Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (GWh)
Year

2010

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

Motors andDrives514.80688.96213.25141.51
39.24
146.2656.43
115.9715.39
630.93491.05711.49638.71111.1927.07
131.13
56.43
86.97
12.09
570.80434.30713.83593.75111.1927.07
131.13
56.43
86.97
12.09
640.86
485.34739.55673.11111.1927.07
129.94
55.91
86.97
12.09
333.23438.73721.72460.85111.1927.07
123.56
50.79
79.73
11.55
308.55410.55673.38257.90111.1927.07
123.56
50.79
79.73
12.64
435.60410.55673.38257.90111.1927.07
123.56
50.79
79.73
12.64
435.60350.18534.06128.95
80.87
21.65
93.30
39.50
57.98
8.80
435.60A1- 96

Process
Electricity
463.32
191.92
127.360.00
548.470.00
0.00
118.30441.950.00
574.84100.07491.730.00
0.00
107.03390.870.00
534.37100.07491.730.00
0.00
120.16436.81605.80100.07487.26
0.00
0.00
62.48
394.850.00
414.76100.07463.36
0.00
0.00
57.85
369.500.00
232.11100.07463.360.00
81.68
369.500.00
232.11100.07463.360.00
81.68
315.160.00
116.0572.78
349.89
0.00
0.00
81.68

Lighting
51.48
36.26
21.32
14.15
2.07
36.56
2.97
6.10
0.81
39.43
49.11
37.45
63.87
11.12
1.42
32.78
2.97
4.58
0.64
35.68
43.43
37.57
59.37
11.12
1.42
32.78
2.97
4.58
0.64
40.05
48.53
38.92
67.31
11.12
1.42
32.48
2.94
4.58
0.64
20.83
43.87
37.99
46.08
11.12
1.42
30.89
2.67
4.20
0.61
19.28
41.06
35.44
25.79
11.12
1.42
30.89
2.67
4.20
0.67
27.23
41.06
35.44
25.79
11.12
1.42
30.89
2.67
4.20
0.67
27.23
35.02
28.11
12.89
8.09
1.14
23.33
2.08
3.05
0.46
27.23

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 97Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 98Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 99

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Transportation Electricity Use (GWh)
Transport--Rail

1990
3,019.5

1996
1,337.6

2000
899.1

2005
981.2

2008
1,162.6

2009
1,087.0

A1- 1002010
1,087.0

2014
956.0

2015
1,165.7

2016
1,210.6

2017
1,046.5

2018
1,001.7

2019
1,001.72020
1,001.7

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Transport Electricity Use by End Use (GWh)

2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Motors and Drives
1,032.69
909.23
1,109.19
1,154.86
1,005.54
965.60966.95967.51

Lighting
27.18
23.90
29.14
30.27
26.16
25.04
25.04
25.04

Space and
Water
Heating-

Air
Conditioning-

Other End
Uses
27.18
23.90
29.14
30.27
26.16
25.04
25.04
25.04

Estimated Transport Sector Electricity Use by End Use,
2010, and 2014 through 2020
Other End Uses
Space and Water Heating
Motors and Drives

1,400

Air Conditioning
Lighting

Gigawatt-hours

1,200
1,000
800

600
400
200
2010

2014

2015

2016

A1- 101

2017

2018

2019

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimated Agricultural and Fisheries Sector Electricity Use (GWh)

Agric Fields--2010

Motors and Drives
103.80Lighting-

Space and
Water
Heating-

Air
Conditioning-

Other End
Uses-

Agrric Processing--2010
Fisheries--2010
Agric Fields--2014

221.08
48.42
99.04

6.98
1.53
-

-

-

4.65
1.02
-

Agrric Processing--2014
Fisheries--2014
Agric Fields--2015

229.39
45.65
99.14

7.24
1.44
-

-

-

4.83
0.96
-

Agrric Processing--2015
Fisheries--2015
Agric Fields--2016

236.63
41.50
99.82

7.47
1.31
-

-

-

4.98
0.87
-

Agrric Processing--2016
Fisheries--2016
Agric Fields--2017

212.18
52.57
93.82

6.70
1.66
-

-

-

4.47
1.11
-

Agrric Processing--2017
Fisheries--2017
Agric Fields--2018

193.96
55.34
86.62

6.12
1.75
-

-

-

4.08
1.17
-

Agrric Processing--2018
Fisheries--2018
Agric Fields--2019

185.28
38.74
86.62

5.85
1.22
-

-

-

3.90
0.82
-

Agrric Processing--2019
Fisheries--2019
Agric Fields--2020

162.24
38.74
86.62

5.12
1.22
-

-

-

3.42
0.82
-

Agrric Processing--2020
Fisheries--2020

153.85
34.86

4.86
1.10

-

-

3.24
0.73

A1- 102

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 103

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 104

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 105

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Agricultural and Fisheries Electricity Use (GWh)
Agricultural Field Use
Agricultural Processing
Fisheries Processing

1990
252.00462.36145.63

1996
199.27150.93
65.53

2000
146.23125.6954.39

2005
141.14250.4858.25

2008
108.81241.55
53.88

2009
99.66
229.4949.51

A1- 1062010
103.80232.72
50.97

2014
99.04
241.47
48.06

2015
99.14
249.08
43.69

2016
99.82
223.35
55.34

2017
93.82
204.17
58.25

2018
86.62
195.03
40.78

2019
86.62
170.78
40.78

2020
86.62
161.9536.70

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimated Military Electricity Use (GWh)

Manufacturing--2010
Buildings/Other--2010
Manufacturing--2014
Buildings/Other--2014
Manufacturing--2015
Buildings/Other--2015
Manufacturing--2016
Buildings/Other--2016
Manufacturing--2017
Buildings/Other--2017
Manufacturing--2018
Buildings/Other--2018
Manufacturing--2019
Buildings/Other--2019
Manufacturing--2020
Buildings/Other--2020

Motors and Drives
4.77
639.83
5.09
674.735.19
698.005.30
715.455.30
721.275.30
732.905.30
732.902.65
630.29Lighting
0.30
1,066.39
0.32
1,124.56
0.32
1,163.33
0.33
1,192.42
0.33
1,202.11
0.33
1,221.50
0.33
1,221.50
0.17
1,050.49

A1- 107

Space and
Water
Heating-

Air
Conditioning-

Other EndUses
0.89
426.560.95
449.820.97
465.330.99
476.970.99
480.840.99
488.600.99
488.600.50
420.20Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 108

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Military Electricity Use (GWh)
Military Manufacturing
Military Buildings/Other

1990
13.25
3,877.8

1996
9.27
2,132.8

2000
5.96
2,055.2

2005
5.96
2,423.6

2008
5.96
2,520.6

2009
5.96
2,255.7

A1- 1092010
5.96
2,132.8

2014
6.36
2,249.1

2015
6.49
2,326.7

2016
6.62
2,384.8

2017
6.62
2,404.2

2018
6.62
2,443.02019
6.62
2,443.02020
3.31
2,101.0

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Overall DPRK Electricity Use by End Use, 2010 and 2014 through 2020
Electricity Use (GWh)
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fraction of Total by
End Use
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Motors and Drives
4,955.13
5,099.74
5,311.13
5,221.56
4,735.99
4,535.48
4,510.74
3,963.28

Lighting
2,468.82
2,388.74
2,475.31
2,544.54
2,522.66
2,572.19
2,551.13
2,551.83

57.0%
58.9%
58.9%
57.8%
55.5%
53.8%
53.9%
49.8%

28.4%
27.6%
27.5%
28.2%
29.6%
30.5%
30.5%
32.1%

A1- 110

Space and
Water
Air
Heating
Conditioning
152.03128.91133.87114.42139.98119.36145.63123.93145.44123.46174.49131.48172.75131.84176.97105.29

1.7%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%

1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.3%

Other End
Uses
992.85924.18967.911,001.65
1,005.35
1,012.49
996.11
1,159.62

11.4%
10.7%
10.7%
11.1%
11.8%
12.0%
11.9%
14.6%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 111

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Workpapers—Energy Supply Sectors
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:COAL EXTRACTION AND PROCESSING, IMPORTS
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/24/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Source/Note:
Domestic Coal Production (official)
Anthracite Coal
Brown CoalHeat Content, Anthracite
Heat Content, Brown Coal
Weighted Ave Heat Content
Official Ave. Heat Content
Conversion Factor
Total Coal Production (official)
True-up factor to reduce coal supply to meet demand
Total Coal Production (revised)
Coal and Coke Imports
Total Coal Imports
Average Heat Content
Coal Imports
Coke Imports
Average Heat Content
Coke Imports
Total Coal and Coke Imports
Coal Exports
Total Coal Exports (Anthracite)
Heat Content, Anthracite
Conversion Factor
Total Coal Exports (Anthracite)
Coal Use in Coal Mining
Per-unit coal use in mining
Weighted Ave Heat Content
Conversion Factor
Coal Use in Mining Industry
Coal Transport Losses
Coal Loss Rate
Mass of Coal Lost
Energy content of Coal Lost
Electricity Use in Coal Mining
Electricity intensity of mining
Conversion Factor
Electricity Used in Coal Mining

4.90E+07 te
2.10E+07 te
6150 kcal/kg
4250 kcal/kg
5580 kcal/kg
4500 kcal/kg
4.184 kJ/kcal
1317960000 GJ
98.7%
1301287806 GJ
2.38E+06 te
26.2 GJ/te
6.24E+07 GJ
2.09E+05 te
28.47 GJ/te
5.95E+06 GJ, or
6.84E+07 GJ
1,700,329 te
6200 kcal/kg
4.184 kJ/kcal
4.41E+07 GJ

1, 21
1, 21
2
2
10

Assumption

38342.0308E+05 Tce(to China and Japan)

5, 16
8

39.1 kg/te
5580 kcal/kg
4.184 kJ/kcal
6.31E+07 GJ

71.0% of mined
6.91E+05 te
1.61E+07 GJ

Guess, see Note 24

34.34 kWh/te
0.0036 GJ/kWh
8.54E+06 GJ, or

6

A1- 1120.006901 GJ/GJ net coal output

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
COAL SUPPLY ESTIMATE
Coal Imports to the DPRK (China)
Coke Imports from FSU
Coal Exports to China

Coal Imports to the DPRK relative to 1993
Coke (and Coal Tar and related products)
Imports to the DPRK relative to 1990
Total Estimated Coal+Coke Imports (GJ)
Coal and Coke Exp. from DPRK rel. to 1993
Exp. to China
Total Estimated Coal Exports (GJ)
Domestic Coal Production relative to 1990
Total Estimated Domestic Coal Production (GJ)
Estimated Coal Use in Coal Mining (GJ)
Estimated Coal Losses (GJ)
Estimated Electricity Use in Coal Mining (GJ)

Coal Imports to the DPRK relative to 1993
Coke (and Coal Tar and related products)
Imports to the DPRK relative to 1990
Total Estimated Coal+Coke Imports (GJ)
Coal and Coke Exp. from DPRK rel. to 1993
Exp. to China
Total Estimated Coal Exports (GJ)
Domestic Coal Production relative to 1990
Total Estimated Domestic Coal Production (GJ)
Estimated Coal Use in Coal Mining (GJ)
Estimated Coal Losses (GJ)
Estimated Electricity Use in Coal Mining (GJ)

1.75E+06 te
2.09E+05 te
1.55E+05 te(In 1993)(In 1990)(In 1993)

11
3
11

1996
18%

2000
22%

2005
77.1%

2008
39.5%

2009
13.5%

2010
25.9%

2014
16.3%

17, 22, 23.25-27

52.7%
1.16E+07

29%
1.20E+07

17.8%
3.64E+07

7.2%
1.86E+07

6.2%
6.54E+06

26.08%
1.34E+07

5.58%
7.82E+06

17, 22, 23.25-27
Calculated

301.74%
1.21E+07
52.46%
6.83E+08
3.27E+07
8.36E+06
4.43E+06

231.8%
9.31E+06
25.83%
3.36E+08
1.61E+07
4.12E+06
2.18E+06

1988.4%
7.99E+07
33.38%
4.34E+08
2.08E+07
5.32E+06
2.82E+06

1656%
6.66E+07
32.80%
4.27E+08
2.04E+07
5.23E+06
2.77E+06

2341%
9.41E+07
37.22%
4.84E+08
2.32E+07
5.93E+06
3.14E+06

3028%
1.22E+08
37.79%
4.92E+08
2.35E+07
6.02E+06
3.19E+06

10007%
4.02E+08
65.43%
8.51E+08
4.08E+07
1.04E+07
5.52E+06

18, 19, 20, 27
Calculated
13
Calculated
Calculated
Calculated
Calculated

2015
63.9%

2016
89.7%

2017

2018
0.0%

2019
0.0%

2020

63%

0.0%

5.2%
2.96E+07

4.7%
4.14E+07

9.0%
2.95E+07

5.1%
3.01E+05

5.1%
3.01E+05

2.0%
1.20E+05

12851%
5.16E+08
73.00%
9.50E+08
4.55E+07
1.16E+07
6.16E+06

14537.4%
5.84E+08
78.36%
1.02E+09
4.88E+07
1.25E+07
6.61E+06

3403.6%
1.37E+08
43.56%
5.67E+08
2.71E+07
6.94E+06
3.67E+06

2040.9%8.20E+07
40.81%
5.31E+08
2.54E+07
6.50E+06
3.44E+06

4045%
1.63E+08
47.58%
6.19E+08
2.96E+07
7.58E+06
4.01E+06

2041%
8.20E+07
35.39%
4.61E+08
2.20E+07
5.64E+06
2.99E+06

A1- 11317, 22, 23.25-27
17, 22, 23.25-27,
33
Calculated
18, 19, 20, 27, 29,32
Calculated
13
Calculated
Calculated
Calculated
CalculatedNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Data on Coal Imports from and Exports to Other Countries, 2000
Data on Coal Exports from China to the DPRK and Imports to China from the DPRK (Source 15)

Mer. ID
Name
Unit
27011100 Blend coalkg
27011100 anthracite coalkg
27011210 agglomerating(cindery) coalkg
27011290 other bituminous/soft coalkg
27011900 other coalkg
27040010 coking coal and semi-coking coalkg
27060000 coke tar; oil tar from distilling minerals
kg

ExportAmountUS $1,024,000$

40,9601,024,000$

40,960100,489,900$

3,616,390 -

17,406,100$

519,652 -

53,646,410$

2,018,696 -53,166,100$

3,001,260 -

154,500$

37,600 -ImportAmount8,142,700
8,142,700

225,887,010

Data on Coal Exports to Japan from the DPRK (Source 16)
Mer. ID
Name
27011100 anthracite coal
351,069 tonnes
Data on Coal Imports from Australia to the DPRK
Total estimated coal imports from Australia (see Notes 14, 23)

A1- 114

31,194 tonnes

US $
$
$

-

90,33290,332Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Data on Coal Imports from and Exports to Other Countries, through 2018
Coal and coal products imports to the DPRK from China, as indicated in data collected as in Source 19 ,(China Customs Statistics, except for 1992 through 1994, and 2010-on, which are from UN
Comtrade database) are as follows for selected years, and from other nations, from UN
Comtrade statistics:
Units: metric tonnes

IMPORTS FROM CHINA

Year

Anthracite Coal
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

2,700
1,024
200
969
4,867
19,011
4,858
1,579
3,343
5,674
7,474

3,057
13,367
7,910

Bituminous
Coal

429,574
117,956
267,697234,810367,315
241,040
142,419
205,249
227,250
228,116
84,234
216,442204,214172,055
129,041
101,547
72,617
118,146
47,440

Other NonAgglomerated
Coal and
Briquettes

2,488
53,646
151,954
26,68432,969
4,271
195
345
483
525
525
8
40
45
65
96

Total Coals(HS 2701)
1,369,165
1,668,080
1,552,365
1,105,746
323,772
268,440
98,918434,762
172,627
419,851
262,463405,152
264,322
147,471
206,828
227,250
231,804
90,390224,442204,214172,055
129,049
101,587
75,718
131,578
55,446

Lignite, w hether
or notagglomerated(excl. Jet) (HSCoke; Retort
2702)
Carbon (HS 2704)

100
0
0
55

0

29,8790000123,444
83,33545,16496,222100,053
48,875
84,127
72,971
53,166
125,497
155,91487,141
22,31725,87817,644
7,534
7,592
3,948
2,744
3,290
3,455
2,886
2,879
2,493
2,173
2,313

80

Except as shown, no 2018 inports of coal/coke into the DPRK appear in UN Comtrade data as of 3/3/2020.

A1- 115

Pitch, Coke from
Mineral Tars (HS
2708)

2,033
2,671
5,403
23,873
6,152
2,877
3,104
5,635
4,243
4,306
4,959
6,179
4,488
5,721
5,561
6,186
5,901
7,635
11,053
8,759
7,613
7,386
7,710
7,391
6,785
12,367
8,402

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
IMPORTSFROM CHINAAND OTHERNATIONS
Coal Tars, MineralTars, Oils from Coal
Tars (HS 2706,
2707, and 2709) (allfrom Comtrade)

Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

208
3,441
233
18,961
302
36
36
272
309
607
484
3,955
161
927
29
157
240,338
63,22735,749
131
8
233
18
36
27
2,343
1,133

IMPORTS FROM OTHER NATIONSAnthracite Coal
(270111)

11,274

9,861
6,884
38,9728,840
000Bituminous Coal
(270112)
70,10023,432

147,596
161,737
82,09523,059169,432
275,975
301,160
1,200,888
2,473,908
65,669192,388
145,349
219,241
65,239139,366
178,676
155,523
1,002,831
1,320,852
662,275

Other NonAgglomerated Coal
(270119)

Total Coals (HS
2701)

10

20,00065,236

10,3500

Shaded above
Except as shown, includes
no 2018 China
inports of coal/coke into the DPRK appear in UN Comtrade data as of 3/3/2020.
Some years
also include
Imports in 2708
from othernations

A1- 116

Lignite, w hether or
not agglomerated
Coke; Retort Carbon(excl. Jet) (HS 2702)(HS 2704)

David:
2008 through 2010 include
relatively large reported
trades from India in
category 2707.

234,340
161,737
102,095
23,059180,706
275,975
301,160
1,200,888
2,473,908
65,669192,388
145,349
229,101
137,359
178,338
178,676
164,363
1,013,181
1,320,852
662,275
-

2005

1,110
1,263
1,142
0
0
0
74
20.45
0
0
20,04530,115
118,600
387,464
22,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Imports to the DPRK of Coal and Coke: 1990-2018
3,000,000
Coal (as TCE) from all countries
Coke; Retort Carbon (2704), Pitch, Coke from
Mineral Tars (2708) Units: TCE

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

A1- 117

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

Tonnes Coal Equivalent

2,500,000

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal and coal products exports from the DPRK to China, as indicated in data collected as in Source 19 ,(China Customs Statistics, except for 1992 through 1994 and for China and other countries
2010-2016, which are from UN Comtrade database) are as follows for selected years(tonnes):

EXPORTS TO CHINA

Anthracite Coal
(HS 270111)

Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Bituminous
Coal (HS270112)Other NonAgglomerated
Coal

Briquettes,
ovoids, andsimilar solid fuels
manufactured
from coal

Total Coals(HS 2701)

Lignite, w hether
or notagglomerated(excl. Jet) (HS2702)

Coke and semicoke, of coal,lignite, or peat (HS2704)

711,150
154,926
64,317
28,836
33,77742,70427,3442,484,991
3,741,267
2,537,274
3,598,951
4,603,099
11,169,098
11,862,908
16,531,693
15,459,494
19,578,090
22,388,634
4,899,906

1,898

82
1,901
-

494
2,177
2,322
3,083
6,346

312

12,211
8,143
86,361
406,534
745,339
1,571,348
2,804,260
2,485,486
3,743,444
2,539,596
3,602,034

36,117
122,490
67,65454,61737,52851,752
55,77912,223

4,647,459
11,301,133
11,932,960
16,616,188
15,502,032
19,630,236
22,446,314
4,912,129-

A1- 118

Pitch, Coke from
Mineral Tars (HS
2708)

52
184

21
494
2,177
2,322
3,083
5,644
9,545
2,398
29,879
5,010
1,271
0.21
-

229

0
0
0
3,398
0
0

12,367Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Exports to China
and Other
Nations
Coal Tara, MineralTars, Oils from Coal
Tars (HS 2706, 2707,
2709) (all from
Comtrade)

Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Total Coal And
Coke Exports
from DPRK, All
Nations

EXPORTS TO OTHER NATIONSAnthracite Coal (HS270111)Other NonAgglomerated Coal, andBriquettes, ovoids, and Lignite, w hether orsimilar solid fuels
not agglomerated
manufactured from coal (excl. Jet) (HS 2702)

Bituminous Coal
(HS 270112)

4
100
350
1,166
251
193
277
0
1
16
5
924
245

221
5
279
5,002
12,402
5,484
406
307
48
5,744

831
39,266130,496203,890
207,996217
282,790
81,2796,342

0

0
16,50014,793

0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

A1- 119

0

0
0
0
0
0

711.15154.98
64.60
29.19
34.94
42.95
27.54
12.49
8.14
86.36
406.53745.36
1,571.35
2,805.20
2,486.45
3,745.84
2,541.92
3,605.95
4,692.65
11,462.68
12,166.44
16,859.55
15,507.67
19,918.00
22,527.64
4,936.58
58.80

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Coal and Coke
Exported (asthousand TCE,
from DPRK toall countries)

Coal and Coke
Exported (asTCE, fromDPRK to all
countries)

1,505
441
954
545
420
383
414
390
334
234
318
441
674
957
1,618
2,728
2,298
3,314
2,272
3,212
4,155
10,148
10,772
14,927
13,73017,631
19,945
4,360-

1,505,389
441,177954,276545,224
419,944382,828
413,985
389,620
333,738
233,782
318,029
440,581673,775
957,443
1,617,797
2,728,013
2,298,287
3,314,263
2,272,477
3,211,709
4,154,643
10,148,498
10,771,580
14,926,626
13,729,735
17,631,425
19,944,882
4,359,661-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 120

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal and coal products exports from the DPRK (country code 104 in Japan's trade statistics) to Japan as indicated in data collected as in Source 16 ,(Japan Customs Statistics) are as follows for 1990 through 2011:
Mer. ID
Name
27011100 anthracite coalYear

Average
Cost, 1000
Yen/tonne

Tonnes
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

497,794
501,597528,329
498,307366,700
459,585409,931403,566
428,772
397,370
349,611
251,844
351,069
411,178
354,491
333,545
255,945
277,017
110,418-

Value, 1000
Yen
1988 and 1989 values from UN Comtrade database

6.73
6.40
5.88
4.82
4.15
3.89
4.89
5.48
5.49
4.23
3.61
4.06
4.15
3.75
4.47
6.95
8.42
-

3,558,217
3,187,789
2,156,175
2,216,519
1,702,676
1,570,310
2,094,622
2,177,716
1,918,955
1,065,360
1,266,121
1,668,661
1,470,955
1,250,831
1,144,447
1,924,606
929,947
No imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2007
No imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2008
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2009No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2010
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2011
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2012
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2013
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2014
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2015
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2016
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2017
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2018
No energy imports at all to Japan from DPRK listed for 2019
Energy imports by Japan have yet been listed for 2020

A1- 121

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Notes:
1 1989 value from document in authors' files [HT1]. Other estimates are as high as 87
total Mte, and as low as 43 (both for 1990), and more recent outside ROK estimates are even lower(For example, the ROK's MOCIE and the Korean National Statistical Office estimate 1990 output of
33.15 million tonnes, declining to 21 million tonnes in 1996. Based on other information we have received, andon our analysis of DPRK energy demand in 1990 and 1996, these estimates appear too low.
2 Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU, 1993. P. 14.
3 Imports to NK. Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU,
1993. P. 23. Based on various statistics, including UN(Note that UN Comtrade statistics for cok e trades with the DPRK for 1990 include only 3500 tonnes imported
from Japan, so the imports cited by Choi are lik ely to have been be "off-book ", at least as far as the UN statistics areconcerned.
4 J. Sinton, Editor, China Energy Databook , 1992 (Revised 1993). LBL. Page xii. Coal import figure
assumes washed Chinese coal.
5 Exports to China. Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU,
1993. P. 25. Based on various statistics, including UN
6 Raw coal production electricity use, China, 1980, from "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial
Products" Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL
7 Coal use in coal mining from [Chinese language spreadsheet dated 12-Feb-93 provided by J. Sinton],
8 Young Sik Jang, North Korean Energy Economics , Korea Development Institute, 1994 (p. 179).
Value in this source for import coal to NK is within 1% of value for washed Chinese coal from reference 4.
10 Official 1989 value from document in authors' files [EE1].
11 J. Sinton, Editor, China Energy Databook (Revised 1996). Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory (LBNL).
Value is for the year 1993. Page VII-8.
12 All cok e imports to the DPRK in 1996, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2017that were reported in customs statistics (Comtrade) came from China.
Cok e imports in these yeara are therefore assumed to be equal to imports from China as reflected incustoms statistics, plus
10% to reflect additional "off-book s" imports from China not reported incustoms statistics, plus small-volume, non-reported imports from other countries, such as Russia.
13 Set so as to balance demand+exports-imports. For 1996, value is consistent with the notes of someobservers suggesting that coal output in that year was about half what it was in 1990, though estimates ofof DPRK coal output over the years vary significantly. For 2005, the value shown is reasonably consistent
with the "24.6 million tonnes of anthracite" figure provide in the State of the Environment DPR Korea 2003
report prepared with UNDP, and published by the United Nations Environment Programme, although the comparison
depends on the conversion factor used. Of course, thevalue in the "SOE" report would have been a projection at the time that the report was written, but it is quite close
to the value of 24 million tonnes cited by ROK sources (MOCIE, the National Statistical Service) for DPRK coal
output in 2005. By comparison, the implied domestic coal output estimated here for 2000 is on the order of
25 to 35 percent lower than the 22.5 million tonnes that ROK sources (same as above) estimate for the DPRK.
Values estimated above for 2008 and 2009 coal output are similarly somewhat lower than those estimated by ROK sources(25.06 and 25.50 million tonnes, respectively), though again the comparison depends on the coal heat content
used by the ROK analysts, which is not immediately clear from our reading of the source material.

A1- 122

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes:
1 1989 value from document in authors' files [HT1]. Other estimates are as high as 87
total Mte, and as low as 43 (both for 1990), and more recent outside ROK estimates are even lower(For example, the ROK's MOCIE and the Korean National Statistical Office estimate 1990 output of
33.15 million tonnes, declining to 21 million tonnes in 1996. Based on other information we have received, andon our analysis of DPRK energy demand in 1990 and 1996, these estimates appear too low.
2 Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU, 1993. P. 14.
3 Imports to NK. Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU,
1993. P. 23. Based on various statistics, including UN(Note that UN Comtrade statistics for cok e trades with the DPRK for 1990 include only 3500 tonnes imported
from Japan, so the imports cited by Choi are lik ely to have been be "off-book ", at least as far as the UN statistics areconcerned.
4 J. Sinton, Editor, China Energy Databook , 1992 (Revised 1993). LBL. Page xii. Coal import figure
assumes washed Chinese coal.
5 Exports to China. Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU,
1993. P. 25. Based on various statistics, including UN
6 Raw coal production electricity use, China, 1980, from "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial
Products" Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL
7 Coal use in coal mining from [Chinese language spreadsheet dated 12-Feb-93 provided by J. Sinton],
8 Young Sik Jang, North Korean Energy Economics , Korea Development Institute, 1994 (p. 179).
Value in this source for import coal to NK is within 1% of value for washed Chinese coal from reference 4.
10 Official 1989 value from document in authors' files [EE1].
11 J. Sinton, Editor, China Energy Databook (Revised 1996). Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory (LBNL).
Value is for the year 1993. Page VII-8.
12 All cok e imports to the DPRK in 1996, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2017that were reported in customs statistics (Comtrade) came from China.
Cok e imports in these yeara are therefore assumed to be equal to imports from China as reflected incustoms statistics, plus
10% to reflect additional "off-book s" imports from China not reported incustoms statistics, plus small-volume, non-reported imports from other countries, such as Russia.
13 Set so as to balance demand+exports-imports. For 1996, value is consistent with the notes of someobservers suggesting that coal output in that year was about half what it was in 1990, though estimates ofof DPRK coal output over the years vary significantly. For 2005, the value shown is reasonably consistent
with the "24.6 million tonnes of anthracite" figure provide in the State of the Environment DPR Korea 2003
report prepared with UNDP, and published by the United Nations Environment Programme, although the comparison
depends on the conversion factor used. Of course, thevalue in the "SOE" report would have been a projection at the time that the report was written, but it is quite close
to the value of 24 million tonnes cited by ROK sources (MOCIE, the National Statistical Service) for DPRK coal
output in 2005. By comparison, the implied domestic coal output estimated here for 2000 is on the order of
25 to 35 percent lower than the 22.5 million tonnes that ROK sources (same as above) estimate for the DPRK.
Values estimated above for 2008 and 2009 coal output are similarly somewhat lower than those estimated by ROK sources(25.06 and 25.50 million tonnes, respectively), though again the comparison depends on the coal heat content
used by the ROK analysts, which is not immediately clear from our reading of the source material.

A1- 123

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal Imports to the DPRK from China
Commodity
Code

2701
270111270112270119270120
2702

Units: Metric Tonnes

Product/Product GroupSOLID FUELS FROM COAL
ANTHRACIT COAL,N AG
BITUMNOUS COAL,N AG
OTHER COAL,NT AGGLM
OTHER 2701
LIGNITE,EXCLUDING JET

Commodity Code
2701
2701112701122701192701201992
1,369,165
1,369,165
1993
1,668,080
6,593 1,593,195
1994
1,552,365
37,871 1,505,994
1995
1,105,746
17,434 1,030,173
58,1401996
323,672
3,412
311,235
9,025
1997
268,440
10,898257,047
495
1998
98,9181,770
97,148
1999
434,7622,700
429,574
2,488
2000
172,627
1,024
117,956
53,646
2001
419,851200
267,697
151,9542002
262,523969
234,810
26,68460
2003
405,152
4,867
367,315
32,9692004
264,357
19,011
241,040
4,271
35
2005
147,471
4,858
142,419
195
2006
206,828
1,579
205,2492007
227,2500227,250002008
231,804
3,343
228,116345
2009
90,3905,674
84,234
0483
2010
224,4427,474
216,442525.3
2011
204,2140
204,21400
2012
172,0550
172,05500
2013
129,0410
129,033
0
7.9
2014
101,587
0
101,547
40
0
2015
75,7183,057
72,61744.5
0
2016
131,578
13,367
118,146
065
201755,4467910
47,440
0
96.44
2018*
0
0
0
* No trades with China in category 2701 or 2702 reported in Comtrade database as of 3/6/2020
Year

A1- 124

2702

100

55

0

29,879000
00Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Imports to the DPRK from China of Code 2704, "Coke and Semi-Coke….", 2708, "Pitch and Pitch coke from coal…", and"Asphalt or similar materials….".
Year
Code 2704
Code 2708
Code 6807 Units: Metric Tonnes
1992
123,444
2,033
1993
83,3352,671
1994
45,164
2,025
1995
96,222
5,403
1996
100,053
23,873
1997
48,875
2,877
1998
84,127
3,104
1999
72,971
5,635
2000
53,166
4,243
2001
125,497
4,306
2002
155,914
4,959
2003
87,141
6,179
2004
22,317
4,488
2005
25,878
5,721
2006
17,644
5,561
2007
7,534
6,186
2008
7,592
5,901
2009
3,948
7,749
2010
2,744
11,053
2011
3,290
8,759
2012
3,455
7,613
2013
2,886
7,386
861
2014
2,879
7,710
692
2015
2,493
7,391
630
2016
2,173
6,785
837
2017
2,313
12,367
678
2018
80
8,402
Exports from the DPRK to China
Commodity
Code

2701
2706
2702

Product/Product GroupSOLID FUELS FROM COAL
MINERAL TARSLIGNITE,EXCLUDING JET

Exports from the DPRK to China
Commodity
Code

2701
2706
2702
2701

Product/Product GroupSOLID FUELS FROM COAL
MINERAL TARSLIGNITE,EXCLUDING JETSOLID FUELS FROM COAL--Value
Implied average cost per tonne

Units: Metric Tonnes
2000
8,143

2001
86,361

2002
406,534

2003
745,339

2004
1,571,348

2005
2,804,260
920
21

2007
3,741,267
208
2,177

2008
2,537,274
5
2,322

2009
3,598,951

2010
4,645,160

2011
11,169,098

Units: Metric Tonnes
2006
2,484,991
229
494

Commodity
Code

3083

5,644
9,545
$ 396,000,802
1,153,811,899 $$
85.25 $
103.30 $Product/Product Group
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
SOLID FUELS FROM COAL
16,531,693
15,459,494
19,630,236
22,446,314
4,912,129
MINERAL TARSLIGNITE,EXCLUDING JET
29,8795,010
0.21
SOLID FUELS FROM COAL--Value$ 1,394,437,429 $ 1,143,172,194 $ 1,050,972,221 $ 1,182,762,524 $ 410,358,802
Implied average cost per tonne$
84.35 $
73.95 $
53.54 $
52.69 $
83.54
* No trades with China in category 2701, 2701, or 2706 reported in Comtrade database as of 3/6/2020
2701
2706
2702
2701

A1- 125

2018*
0
0
0
0
0

2012
11,862,908
2,398
1,215,197,712
102.44

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
21 The report DPR KOREA : STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT 2003 , published by the United Nations Environment Programme,
lists (tables 3.15 and 3.16) anthracite coal "primary consumption" of
45,409 thousand tonnes, "bitumimous coal"primary consumption of
11,934 thousand tonnes, and total coal consumption of
60,000 thousand
tonnes. Given that the DPRK is said to have very limited reserves of bituminous coal, and lignite coal
is not listed in the tables referenced, we consider 21 million tonnes of lignite to be more believable.
A set of figures in the authors' files [NKES-01], dated 2001 and citing a DPRK source, lists 1991 output figures that are similar to
the above--45.4 million tonnes anthracite, 14.3 million tonnes of lignite, and 365,000 tonnes of "raphaelite". This appears roughly
consistent with an estimate of 70 million tonnes for 1990, given that production declined after 1990. The same source provided thefollowing coal production estimates for other years.
Yearly coal production rates
Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Million*
60
59
58
52.8
37.8
Tonnes
Year
1998
1999
2000
Million*
22
22.1
22.3
Tonnes* Stated by the source as "k ilo-tonnes", which seems clearly to have been a units error.

1996
27.2

1997
27

22 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 10/19/10, 8/23/12, and 5/30/2018) includes thefollowing statistics on exports from Russia to the DPRK of coal products:
HS2701 = Coal

HS2702 = Lignite
Implied
NetWeight
Implied
PeriodTrade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost/tonne Trade Value(kg)
Cost/tonne
1998$3,859,085
86,743,500 $
44.49
1999
$6,043,451
161,737,000 $
37.37
2000
$3,028,770
82,094,700 $
36.89
2001
$898,866
23,059,100 $
38.98
2002
$3,947,190
158,158,020 $
24.96
2003
$5,041,736
214,629,750 $
23.49
2004
$11,634,797
301,159,810 $38.63$20,863
1,110,000 $
18.80
2005
$53,522,090
1,170,252,170 $45.74$28,039
1,263,000 $
22.20
2006
$101,085,805
2,277,528,770 $44.38$24,331
1,142,300 $
21.30
2007
$3,274,753
65,668,900 $
49.87
2008
$15,198,654
192,388,250 $
79.00
2009
$4,937,349
37,719,950 $ 130.89
2010$10,982,385
87,457,440 $ 125.57$2,00537,000 $54.19
2011$828,838
6,886,950 $ 120.35$1,49920,450 $73.30
2012$19,292,577
178,338,100 $ 108.18
2013$19,921,297
178,675,600 $ 111.49
2014$12,858,033
164,363,050 $78.23$1,233,323
20,044,600 $
61.53
2015
$44,676,477
992,480,730 $45.01$1,134,883
30,114,500 $
37.69
2016
$51,096,897
1,231,677,750 $
41.49$3,465,720 118,599,950 $
29.22
2017
$39,596,356
662,275,100 $59.79$14,040,594 387,463,750 $36.24
2018 No trades in category 2701, 2702, or 2704 reported in Comtrade database as of 3/6/2020

HS270111 = Anthracite Coal

HS2704 = Coke
Trade Value$136,340

NetWeight (kg)2,005,000 $Implied
Cost/tonne

68.00

HS6807 = "Articles of Asphalt or Similar Material
HS270112 = Bituminous Coal(for example, petroleum bitumen or coal tar pitch)
NetWeight
ImpliedImplied
Trade Value(kg)
Cost/tonne
Trade Value NetWeight (kg)
Cost/tonne$15,198,654
192,388,250 $79.00$4,937,349
37,719,950 $130.89$9,372,256
77,596,890 $
120.78$3,5683,000 $
1,189.33$14,075
7,529 $
1,869.44

Implied
PeriodTrade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost/tonne
2008
2009
2010
$1,610,129
9,860,550 $ 163.29
2011$825,270
6,883,950 $ 119.88
2012
2013
2014
$585,986
8,840,000 $66.29
12,272,046 155,523,050 $
2015
0
0 N/A
$44,676,477 992,480,730 $
2016
$0
0 N/A
$ 51,096,897
1,231,677,750 $
2017
$0
0 N/A
$ 39,596,356
662,275,100 $2018 No trades in category 2701, 2702, or 2704 reported in Comtrade database as of 3/6/2020

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78.91
45.01
41.49
59.79

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

23 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 3/11/11) includes the following statistics on exports from
Australia to the DPRK of coal products:

HS2701 = Coal
Period
1991
1993
2000

Implied
Trade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost/tonne$1,488,759
35,000,000 $42.54

HS2702 = Lignite
NetWeight
Implied
Trade Value(kg)
Cost/tonne

HS2707 = Coal tar distillation products including
oils
Implied
Trade Value NetWeight (kg)
Cost/tonne$160,309$967,029

31,194,000 $

2,000,000 $

80.15

31.00

24 Though this is the roughest of estimates, it is of the same order of magnitude as the 0.5% implied for coal transport in the western US in
Exporting Powder River Basin Coal: Risk s and Costs , by the Western Organization of Resource Councils, dated January, 2011,
available as http://www.worc.org/userfiles/file/Coal/Exporting_Powder_River_Basin_Coal_Risk s_and_Cost.pdf.
Of course, the transport distance for this US example, is much further than the average in the DPRK, but loading, unloading, andother coal transport infrastructure is lik ely better in the US. As another example, a 2006 calculation of fuel costs adjustments forelectricity generation in the Indian state of Punjab used a coal loss factor of 0.8%, also in the same range as the assumed value (seehttp://pserc.nic.in/pages/7_2006.html). Yet another example from India is "Case Study Of The Damodar Valley Region", a chapter in an industrial
ecology book , probably dated late 1990s, and available as http://www.roionline.org/book s/Industrial%20ecology_chapter09_Damodar_Coal.pdf.
This example suggests about 4 percent losses during transport, with an additional 6 percent losses during storage, though these estimates
may also include pilferage.
25 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/27/2012 and 5/30/2018) includes the following statistics on exports fromIndonesia to the DPRK of coal products:

HS2701 = Coal
Period
2003
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Trade Value$1,525,650$965,034$6,199,674$4,907,379$8,578,390$4,239,690

Implied
NetWeight (kg) Cost/tonne
61,345,000 $
24.87
30,636,000 $31.50
196,379,000 $
31.57
107,628,922 $
45.60
141,643,841 $
60.56
65,236,000 $64.99

HS270112 = Bituminuous Coal
NetWeight
Implied
Trade Value(kg)
Cost/tonne$1,525,650
61,345,000 $
24.87$965,034
30,636,000 $
31.50$6,199,674 196,379,000 $
31.57$4,907,379 107,628,922 $
45.60$8,578,390 141,643,841 $
60.56$4,239,690
65,236,000 $64.99
No trades reported
from 2011
through 2014

$277,380$5,117,696

10,350,000 $
89,174,000 $

26.80
57.39

$

5,117,696

89,174,000 $57.39
No trades reported in 2017
No trades reported in 2018

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26 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/27/2012) includes the following statistics on exports fromSouth Africa to the DPRK of coal products:
HS2701 = Coal
Period
1992
1998
2001
2002
2008

Implied
Trade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost/tonne$1,062,038
23,431,881 $45.32$2,678,710
60,852,583 $
44.02$15,711,583

267,672,000 $58.70

HS270112 = Bituminuous Coal
NetWeight
Implied
Trade Value(kg)
Cost/tonne$1,062,038
23,431,881 $45.32$2,678,710
60,852,583 $
44.02$15,711,583

267,672,000 $HS2707 = Coal tar distillation products including
ImpliedBituminous Cost/Ton
Trade Value NetWeight (kg)
Cost/tonne
for other NK imports
$
45.32
$
44.02
$488,667
494,000 $989.20$43,059
64,000 $672.8058.70

27 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/27/2012) includes the following statistics on trade incoal products with other nations not listed individually above (very small trades of less than 100 tons are mostly overlook ed here):

Period
1989
1991
1991
1993
1994
1996
1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Nation
Malaysia
CanadaMalaysia
India
Singapore
MauritiusSouth Africa
VietnamBangladesh
VietnamBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilDominican
Republic
BrazilBrazilBrazilOther Asia NES
Other Asia NES
Other Asia NES
Other Asia NES
Other Asia NES

Import to
the DPRK/
ExportProduct (HSFrom theCode)
DPRK
270112
Import270112
Import270112
Import2708
Export270400
Export270400
Export2708
Export270119
Import270111
Export270111
Import2708
Export2708
Import2708
Import2708
Import2708
Import2708
Import270400
2708
2708
2708
2701
2701
2701
2701
2701

ExportImportImportImportExportExportExportExportExportTrade Value$309,954$1,319,479$112,531$348,724$15,247$18,104$931,029$380,000$3,907$665,165$551,446$80,945$58,249$122,966$167,043$211,702

NetWeight(kg)
8,000,000
27,500,000
7,600,000
1,200,000
70,00038,2504,558,000
20,000,000
95,00011,274,196
2,317,000
177,820
128,060
208,169
237,096
251,106

Implied
Cost/tonne
$
38.74
$
47.98
$
14.81
$
290.60$217.81$473.31$204.26
$
19.00
$
41.13
$
59.00
$
238.00$455.21$454.86$590.70$704.54$843.08$4,829,006$158,700$172,535$109,072$32,501,092$29,399,416$29,712,093$24,317,157$4,221,057

24,743,204 $
175,110 $
207,810 $93,950 $218,683,000 $
207,996,000 $
216,881,000 $
282,790,000 $
81,279,000 $195.16906.29830.25
1,160.96
148.62141.35137.00 Quantity in Comtrade reported as 216,881 kg, which we assume is intended to be tonnes
85.99
51.93

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28 The following is an example of coal in storage at dock s at Rason port, Google Earth image, 12/14/18
Assumes pulverized coal bulk density of:
0.6 tonnes/cubic meter (see,for example, https://www.binmaster.com/_resources/dyn/files/75343622z9caf67af/_fn/Bulk %20Density.pdf.
Estimates (m) of

NumberWidth2
Total of above

Approximate

Length38

Implied Total
Volume (cubic Implied Total
meters)mass (tonnes) Latitude

Height220

1083,60083,60050,16050,16042.228A1- 129

Longitude

Notes
New-looking piers for storage; upper and lower piers look like they had coal
130.284 piles located there recently..

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
29 Although there are in fact no trades in the major coal categories involving the DPRK reported in Comtrade in 2018, at least as of 3/3/2020,
a number of different authors suggest that off-book s coal shipments from the DPRK to other nations, largely China and Russia,
continue even in the presence of UNSC sanctions. See, for example, "A Snapshot of North Korea’s Supply Chain Coal Activity", 38 North ,dated March 8, 2019, analysis by Peter Mak owsk y, Jenny Town and Samantha Pitz, aavailable as https://www.38north.org/2019/03/supplychaincoal030819/, and Ariel Cohen, "North Korea Illegally Trades Oil, Coal,With China's Help", Forbes, dated March 21, 2019, andavailable as https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/03/21/north-k orea-illegally-trades-oil-coal-with-chinas-help/#507e3b34301a.
For 2018, our assumption is that the DPRK must have exported a significant amount of coal through off-book s trades, probably mostly
to China and Russia, to explain the continuing activity at mines described above, and to attempt to continue to generate foreign exchange revenue.
We have not, to date, seen a full estimate of the annual volume of coal that might have been shipped in 2018 in evasion of sanctions,but the March 5, 2019 Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009), includes anecdotal mention of potential ship-to-shipcoal transfers allegedly used by the DPRK to circumvent UNSC sanctions restricting exports of coal. One anecdotal example (pages 23 and 24,
plus annexes) of a vessel identified in the Panel of Experts report as being involved in ship-to-ship transfers of DPRK coal was carrying about 25,000 tonnes ofcoal worth about $3 million. It seems lik ely that other such shipments successfully reached their destinations during 2018. The Panel of Experts
report suggests that the DPRK's largest coal freighters dock ed "monthly" at ports in the DPRK to load coal.
A report from the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), The Phantom Fleet: North Korea’s Smugglers in Chinese Waters, by James Byrne, Joe Byrne,
Gary Somerville and Hamish Macdonald, undated, but released in March, 2020, and available
as https://rusi.org/sites/default/files/20200305_sandstone_phanton_fleet_final.pdf, track s numerous DPRK vessels showing movements
consistent with delivering coal to mostly Chinese ports via ship-to-ship transfers. An additional Panel of Experts report, number S/2019/691,
Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) , dated 30 August 2019, and available
from https://undocs.org/S/2019/691, includes "According to a Member State, it is believed to have exported a totalof 930,000 metric tons of coal through at least 127 deliveries during the first four months of 2019. In a reply to the Panel of Experts,
a Chinese representative noted "the information provided by the Panel lack s timeliness and can not lead to on-site investigation.
The information of relevant vessels is ambiguous and lack s accuracy, which does not constitute a full evidence chain or basis
for further investigation." The DPRK ships track ed by the Panel of Experts appear to have deadweight capacities in the range
from 1000 to 20,000 tonnes, as indicated by the Panel of Experts, and some of the vessels track ed by RUSI seem to be larger, some over
25,000 tonnes. The RUSI report documented "...around 175 separate trips to the [Zhoushan, on the coast south of Shanghai] area, often visiting thethe same regions and anchorages next to major bulk -handling facilities where barges and other vessels designed to transfer cargo
between vessels operate." Images of bulk storage/coal terminals in the Zhoushan area, from Google Earth Pro, are at right.
Assuming that the number of deliveries noted by the Panel of Experts in early 2019 is both reasonably accurate and representative of
the pattern of off-book s deliveries during 2018, and lack ing further details of this trade,
we mak e the rough assumption that about 400 successful deliveries occurred in 2018, each transfering an average of 7,000 tonnes of coal. This
would yield exports of
2,800,000 tonnes of coal, substantially less than reported exports in recent years, but still worth on
the order of $300 million. Indications from these documents, plus the earlier Panel of Experts docuument S/2018/171, Report of the Panel of Experts
established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) , dated 5 March 2018 and available as https://www.undocs.org/S/2018/171,
are that off-book s coal trades in violation of UNSC saNCTIONS probably started in 2017, when
UNSC sanctions on DPRK coal exports came into force in . Annex 5-2 of that document includes reference to 23 transfers in 2017
after the in-force day of sanctions. Only some of these reports of transfers include eplicit references to volumes transferred,
and those that do indicate a range of about 5000 to 20,000 tonnes per transfer. It seems lik ely that not all transfers in
actually delivered in late 2017 appear on the Panel of Experts list. We therefore assume that about 50 off-book s transfers at an
average of about 7000 tonnes each occurred in 2017, for a total volume transferred of about
350,000 tonnes.

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Coal/bulk storage terminal on the coast near Ningbo, approximate coordinates 29.975, 121.725, image date November 2019.

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Coal/bulk storage terminal on the island of Zhoushan, approximate coordinates 30.056, 121.979, image date November 2019.

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30 Following is a Google Earth Pro image of a coal port along the lower Taedong River in Nampo. Image tak en November 2019,
approximate coordinates 38.730, 125.415.

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31 Following is a Google Maps image of a small coal port along the lower Yalu River in Sinuiju. Image probably tak en in Spring of 2020,.
approximate coordinates 40.093403, 124.370793. Coal truck s visible. Not clear if coal is being off-loaded from the ships for delivery by truck ,or vice-versa, but we suspect that this particular image shows coal being collected for shipment via sea, either to elsewhere in the DPRK of to be exported.
Note that this image also includes, at the bottom left, an image of a pile of sand. Sand exports in violation of UNSC sanctions have also tak enplace in recent years (see reference in note 32, page 39 and 40), although we do not k now if exports from this particular port are involvedin these sand export operations.

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32 The UNSC "Panel of Experts" in UNSC (2020), Note by the President of the Security Council , number S/2020/151, dated 2 March 2020, and including"Annex: Letter dated 26 February 2020 from the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) addressed to the President of the
Security Council", available as https://undocs.org/S/2020/151, includes information on estimated exports to China from the DPRKof coal by ship. Based on US estimates, the report places the quantity of coal exported in violation of sanctions at
3.7 million tonnes
over the period from January through August, 2019 (see figure below, from paragraph 55, page 25 and 26 of source document. Most of thisexport quantity was estimated to be "conducted via ship-to-ship transfers from [DPRK]-flagged vessels to Chinese local barges, but othermethods of transfers, including the use of self-propelled Chinese barges over 100 m in length undertak ing ocean journeys, the use of larger
foreign-flagged vessels to carry DPRK coal, and the use of a bulk carrier from China that was supposed to have been brok en up for scrap
as a carrier by the DPRK for coal exports, were also reported. Assuming the estimate of January to August exports above and in the figure below
to be approximately accurate, an extrapolated value for the entire year of 2019 would be
5.55 million tonnes. Given that detected(suspected) off-book s coal shipments increased in May through August, relative to the early part of 2019, this estimate may in fact be low.

33 No UN Comtrade data on DPRK cok e and related products imports in 2019 or 2020 are available as of late April 2019. We assume that2019 imports were100% of 2018 imports, and that 2020 imports will be lower, about
40% of 2018
levels, due to reduced trade due to Covid-19-related border restrictions in the DPRK.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:OIL IMPORTS, EXPORTS, AND REFINING
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/19/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Source/Note:
Domestic Crude Oil Production
Crude Oil Imports, Total
Conversion Factor
Crude Oil Imports, Total
Refined Products Imports
FUEL
Gasoline
Kerosene
DieselHeavy Oil
TOTAL
Conversion Factor
Total Refined Products Imports
Total Oil Imports

0 te
2.60E+06 te
4.26E+01 GJ/te
1.11E+08 GJ
teEnergy Use in Refining--West Coast Refinery
Energy Use in Refining-East Coast Refinery
Conversion Factor
Total Refining Losses
Production of Refined Products, Total
LPG Consumption
Conversion Factor
LPG Consumption, Total

toe/te
1.20E+05
5.00E+04
3.00E+05
1.50E+05

1

Toe
1.05E+00
1.03E+00
1.03E+00
9.91E-01

1.26E+05
5.16E+04
3.10E+05
1.49E+05
6.36E+05 toe
4.1868E+01 GJ/toe
2.66E+07 GJ
1.37E+08 GJ

3
3
3
3

0.0578 toe/te of input
0.0523 toe/te of input
4.1868E+01 GJ/toe
6.29E+06 GJ
1.04E+08 GJ

217

2.55E+03 te
4.24E+01 GJ/te
1.08E+05 GJ

ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CRUDE OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS SUPPLY
Input Data for the Year 1996
Crude Oil Imports from China, 1st through 3rd Quarters, 1996
7.48E+05 tonnes
Recorded Crude Oil Imports from China, all of 1996
936,170 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 1996
0.00E+00 tonnes
Conversion Factor
4.26E+01 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 1996
3.99E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 1st - 3rd Q., 1996
42,744 tonnes
Recorded Refined Products Imports from China, all of 1996
68,378 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by KEDO, 1996 (11/1/95 to 10/31/96)
500,000 tonnes
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/teOther Imports of Refined Products, 1996
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
1.26E+05
1.050
5.54E+06
Kerosene
1.20E+04
1.032
5.18E+05
Diesel
1.20E+05
1.032
5.18E+06
HFO
9.40E+04
0.991
3.90E+06
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
3.70E+03
1.012
1.57E+05
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 1996
3.92E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2000 (all countries)
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
Total of above
Estimated HFO placed in storage, 1996

A1- 136

GJ
0.00E+00
12,300.08
5.21E+05
12,3005.21E+05
154,538 tonnes
6.41E+06 GJ

4

5
30
13

5,6
30
7

14
14
14
14

tonnes88Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2000
DPRK Crude Oil Production
Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2000
Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2000
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2000 (unknown source)
Conversion Factor
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2000
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2000
Extrapolated Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2000
Conversion Factor
HFO Supplied by KEDO, 2000 (1/1/2000 to 12/31/2000)
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2000
tonnesGasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2000
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2000 (to China)
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
Total of above
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2000

7,000 tonnes
27
3.89E+05 tonnes
18
0.00E+00 tonnes
3.89E+05 tonnes
0.00E+00 tonnes
See below
4.26E+01 GJ/te
1.66E+07 GJ
1.17E+05 tonnes
18
1.17E+05 tonnes
1.050 toe/te
394,722 tonnes
19
1.00 toe/te
toe/teGJ
1.09E+05
1.050
4.79E+06 Sum of
2.20E+04
1.032
9.51E+05 Imports from
1.90E+05
1.032
8.22E+06 all nations
5.40E+05
0.991
2.24E+07 (see below,
6.43E+04
1.012
2.72E+06 and note 15)
3.91E+07 GJ
tonnesGJ
68,135
2.83E+06
See below
4,381
1.86E+05
and 32,50
72,516
3.01E+06(30,000) tonnes
26-1.245E+06 GJ
26

Input Data for the Year 2005
DPRK Crude Oil Production
7,000 tonnes
27
Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2005
522,844 tonnes
30
Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
tonnesTotal Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2005
522,844 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2005 (unknown source)
tonnesSee below
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2005
2.23E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2005
148,963 tonnes
31
Extrapolated Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2005
1.49E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by KEDO, 2005
0 tonnes
31
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2005
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
41,8461.050
1.84E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
46,994
1.032
2.03E+06 Imports fromDiesel
2.95E+05
1.032
1.27E+07 all nations
HFO
1.318E+05
0.991
5.47E+06 (see below,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
9.67E+03
1.012
4.10E+05 notes 36, 50)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2005
2.25E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2005 (to China)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
4,424
1.88E+05
Notes 32, 50
Total of above
4,424
1.88E+05
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2005
(5,000) tonnes
26-2.07E+05 GJ
26
Implied total 2005 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.48E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual use of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
7.84E+06 bbl/yr or
an average of
21,470 bbl per day, which is somewhat higher than totals estimated by source in Note 37 .

A1- 137

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2008
DPRK Crude Oil Production
7,000 tonnes
27
Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2008
528,577 tonnes
30
Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
tonnesTotal Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2008
528,577 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2008 (unknown source)
tonnesSee below
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2008
2.25E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2008
117,743 tonnes
31
Extrapolated Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2008
1.18E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties, 2008
304,000 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2008
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
1.16E+05
1.050
5.09E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
50,542
1.032
2.18E+06 Imports fromDiesel
2.02E+05
1.032
8.75E+06 all nations
HFO
3.19E+05
0.991
1.33E+07 (see below,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
9.15E+03
1.012
3.88E+05 notes 36, 50)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2008
2.97E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2008 (to all nations)
tonnesGJ
HFO
92,830.92
3.85E+06 (See notes 30,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
3,198.82
1.36E+05 32, 44, 50)
Total of above
96,0303.99E+06
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2008
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2008 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
5.22E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
9.13E+06 bbl/yr or
an average of
25,025 bbl per day.
Input Data for the Year 2009DPRK Crude Oil Production
5,900 tonnes
27
Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2009
519,814 tonnes
30
Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
tonnesTotal Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2009
519,814 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2009 (unknown source)
tonnesSee below
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2009
2.21E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2009
126,741 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2009
1.27E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties, 2009
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2009
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
79,1301.050
3.48E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
35,2301.032
1.52E+06 Imports fromDiesel1.80E+05
1.032
7.79E+06 all nations
HFO
9.53E+03
0.991
3.95E+05 (see below,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
7.54E+03
1.012
3.19E+05 notes 36, 50)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2009
1.35E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2009 (to all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
1,015.64
4.21E+04
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
3,059.07
1.30E+05
30, 50Total of above
4,075
1.72E+05
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2009
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2009 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
3.56E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
6.24E+06 bbl/yr or
an average of
17,098 bbl per day.

A1- 138

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2010
DPRK Crude Oil Production
5,900 tonnes
27
Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2010
528,315 tonnes
30
Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
tonnesTotal Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2010
528,315 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2010 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)
60,000 tonnes
51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2010
2.51E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2010
145,015 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2010
1.45E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties, 2010
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2010
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
83,011
1.050
3.65E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
40,2951.032
1.74E+06 Imports fromDiesel230,392
1.032
9.95E+06 all nations
HFO
16,483
0.991
6.84E+05 (see below,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
9,917
1.012
4.20E+05 notes 36, 50)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2010
1.64E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2010 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
26,746.20
1.11E+06 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
10,0004.32E+05
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
3,016.60
1.28E+05
30, 50Total of above
39,763
1.67E+06
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2010
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2010 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.15E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
7.27E+06 bbl/yr or
an average of
19,909 bbl per day.
Input Data for the Year 2014
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2014-

tonnes2730; none
reported
Assumedsimilar toreported 2013

Other Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
578,002 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2014
578,002 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2014 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)tonnes51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2014
2.46E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2014
166,128 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2014
1.66E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 2014
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2014
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
111,827
1.050
4.92E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
36,8691.032
1.59E+06 Imports fromDiesel316,961
1.032
1.37E+07 all nations
HFO
8,415
0.991
3.49E+05 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
25,6191.012
1.09E+06 through 57)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2014
2.16E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2014 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
19,704
8.51E+05
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
6,480
2.75E+05
30, 50Total of above
26,184
1.13E+06
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2014
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2014 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.63E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
8,098,610 bbl/yr or
an average of
22,188 bbl per day.

A1- 139

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2015
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2015
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
645,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2015
645,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2015 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)
230 tonnes
51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2015
2.75E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2015
218,087 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2015
2.18E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 2015
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2015
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
151,734.77
1.050
6.67E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
49,0141.032
2.12E+06 Imports fromDiesel345,832.11
1.032
1.49E+07 all nations
HFO
11,1880.991
4.64E+05 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
30,1791.012
1.28E+06 through 57)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2015
2.55E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2015 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
4,476
1.90E+05
30, 50Total of above
4,476
1.90E+05
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2015
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2014 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
5.30E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
9,271,315 bbl/yr or
an average of
25,401 bbl per day.
Input Data for the Year 2016
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2016
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
645,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2016
645,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2016 (Russia, unofficial, estimated, andQatar from customs statistics)
13,107 tonnes
51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2016
2.80E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2016
274,067 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2016
2.74E+05 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 2016
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2016
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
146,354
1.050
6.43E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
56,751
1.032
2.45E+06 Imports fromDiesel439,817
1.032
1.90E+07 all nations
HFO
12,953
0.991
5.37E+05 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
27,8491.012
1.18E+06 through 57)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2016
2.96E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2016 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
247.22
1.03E+04 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
224
9.50E+03
30, 50Total of above
471
1.98E+04
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2016
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2016 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
5.76E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
10,090,940 bbl/yr or
an average of
27,646 bbl per day.

A1- 140

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2017
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2017
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
645,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2017
645,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2017 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)
164.97 tonnes
51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2017
2.75E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2017
90,866 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2017
9.09E+04 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 2017
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2017
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
92,751
1.050
4.08E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
31,537
1.032
1.36E+06 Imports fromDiesel226,299
1.032
9.78E+06 all nations
HFO
3,774
0.991
1.57E+05 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
27,2451.012
1.15E+06 through 57)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2017
1.65E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2017 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
0.25
1.06E+01
30, 50Total of above
0
1.06E+01
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2017
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2017 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.40E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
7,704,814 bbl/yr or
an average of
21,109 bbl per day.
Input Data for the Year 2018
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2018
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
715,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2018
715,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2018 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)tonnes51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2018
3.05E+07 GJ
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2018
6,913 tonnes
31
Official Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2018
6.91E+03 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 2018
0 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2018
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
65,4781.050
2.88E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
18,1571.032
7.85E+05 Imports fromDiesel191,2441.032
8.26E+06 all nations
HFO
721
0.991
2.99E+04 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
through 57, 61,
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
25,121
1.012
1.06E+06 62)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2018
1.30E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2018 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
159.52
6.76E+03
30, 50Total of above
160
6.76E+03
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2018
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2018 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.35E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
7,611,337 bbl/yr or
an average of
20,853 bbl per day.

A1- 141

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Input Data for the Year 2019DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2019
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
715,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2019
715,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2019 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)tonnes51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2019
3.05E+07 GJ
Official (Comtrade Reported) Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2019
tonnes31
Official (Comtrade Reported) Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2019
0.00E+00 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 20190 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2019
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
60,9471.050
2.68E+06 Sum of
Kerosene
20,0001.032
8.64E+05 Imports fromDiesel218,293
1.032
9.43E+06 all nations
HFO
1,940
0.991
8.05E+04 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
through 57, 61
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
25,121
1.012
1.06E+06 through 64)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2019
1.41E+07 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2019 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
1,893
7.85E+04 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
0.29
1.22E+01
30, 48, 50
Total of above
1,893
7.86E+04
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2019
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2019 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
4.46E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
7,803,876 bbl/yr or
an average of
21,380 bbl per day.
Input Data for the Year 2020
DPRK Crude Oil Production

5,900 tonnes

2730; none
reported
See Note 56

Reported Crude Oil Imports from China, 2020
tonnesOther Imports of Crude Oil from China not Reported to Customs
750,000 tonnes
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports from China, 2020
750,000 tonnes
Estimate of other crude oil imports, 2020 (Russia, unofficial, estimated)tonnes51
Conversion Factor
42.59 GJ/te
Total Estimated Crude Oil Imports to DPRK, 2020
3.19E+07 GJ
Official (Comtrade Reported) Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2020
tonnes31
Official (Comtrade Reported) Refined Prod. Imports from China, 2020
0.00E+00 tonnes
Conversion Factor
1.050 toe/te
HFO Supplied by Six-Party Talks Parties or Equivalent, 20200 tonnes
41, 42
Est. Conversion Factor, KEDO Oil
1.00 toe/te
Total Imports of Refined Products, 2020
tonnestoe/teGJ
Gasoline
8,665
1.050
3.81E+05 Sum of
Kerosene
1,000
1.032
4.32E+04 Imports fromDiesel
134,157
1.032
5.80E+06 all nations
HFO
721
0.991
2.99E+04 (see below,
notes 36
through 50, 52
through 57, 61
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
8,792
1.012
3.73E+05 through 64)
Total Estimated Refined Product Imports to DPRK, 2020
6.62E+06 GJ
Estimated Refined Product Exports from DPRK, 2020 (all countries)
tonnesGJ
HFO
0.00E+00 32, 46, 47, 51
Diesel
0.00E+00
51
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
0.00E+00
30, 48, 50
Total of above
0.00E+00
Estimated Net HFO placed in storage, 2020
tonnes26
0.00E+00 GJ
26
Implied total 2020 crude oil, oil products into the DPRK:
3.86E+07 GJ/yr, which implies annual imports of(at a conversion rate of
7.33 bbl oil equivalent per tonne oil equivalent)
6,752,281 bbl/yr or
an average of
18,499 bbl per day.

A1- 142Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Summaries of Annual Estimates Above for Entry into Energy Balances

2000
Crude Oil Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for 2005-on)
Other Crude Oil Imports (tonnes)
Domestic DPRK Crude Oil Production (tonnes)
Official Refined Products Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for2005 through 2010)
HFO Supplied by KEDO or through 6-Party Talks (tonnes)
Total Imports of Refined Products (tonnes)
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery
Gas/Non-Energy

Crude Oil Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for 2005-on)
Other Crude Oil Imports (tonnes)
Domestic DPRK Crude Oil Production (tonnes)
Official Refined Products Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for2005 through 2017)
HFO Supplied by KEDO or through 6-Party Talks (tonnes)
Total Imports of Refined Products (tonnes)
Gasoline(Includes "off-books" trades, both documented andKeroseneassumed)Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery
Gas/Non-Energy

Crude Oil Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for 2005-on)
Other Crude Oil Imports (tonnes)
Domestic DPRK Crude Oil Production (tonnes)
Official Refined Products Imports from China relative to 1996 (rel to 2000 for2005 through 2017), as reported in Comtrade
HFO Supplied by KEDO or through 6-Party Talks (tonnes)

42%
0.00E+00
7,000

2005
134%
7,000

2008
136%
7,000

2009
134%
5,900

172%
394,722108,991
22,000190,258
539,652

127%
41,84646,994
294,885
131,847100%
304,000
115,755
50,542
202,405
319,409108%
79,13035,230180,292
9,527

123%
83,01140,295
230,392
16,48364,282

9,671

9,145

7,538

9,917

166%
230
5,900

2016
166%
13,107
5,900

2017
166%
165
5,900

141%
111,827
36,869316,9618,415

186%
151,735
49,014
345,832
11,188233%
146,354
56,751
439,817
12,95377%
92,751
31,537226,2993,774

6%65,47818,157
191,244721

25,61930,17927,84927,24525,121

2014
148%
5,900

2019
184%
5,900

2015

2020
193%
5,900

-

8,665

Total Imports of Refined Products (tonnes)

Gasoline

60,947(Includes "off-books" trades, both documented andKerosene

20,0001,000

assumed)Diesel218,293

134,157

1,940

721

25,121

8,792

HFO
LPG/Refinery
Gas/Non-Energy

A1- 143

2010
136%
60,000
5,900

2018
184%
5,900

15, 3615, 3615, 3615, 36

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Total Estimated Refined Products Imports to the
DPRK by Year
1,000,000
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

900,000

HFO
DieselTonnes Refined Products

800,000

Kerosene
Gasoline

700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 144

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--1990
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 1990 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 1990 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1990 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1990 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1990 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.446E+06
2.095E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
1.16E+06

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
1.44E+06

440,800
255,200
232,000
46,400139,200
67,048489,600
345,600
216,000
158,400
158,400
75,312

1.83E+07
1.12E+07
1.00E+07
2.00E+06
5.06E+06
4.66E+07
1,093,869
1,113,042

2.03E+07
1.52E+07
9.33E+06
6.84E+06
6.50E+06
5.82E+07
1,362,884
1,389,628

12

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/TeRefinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 1990 Refinery use of electricity

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
36.84%
25.21%
18.47%
8.45%
11.03%
100.00%2,456,753
2,502,670

67.04
165 GWh or

1028
5.93E+05 GJ

Estimated Net Output of East Coast Refinery based roughly on scaling the figure above
using non-Chinese oil import estimates from Reference 3 .
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1991 (TOE)773,103
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1992 (TOE)
411,017

Estimated Refinery Statistics--1996
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 1996 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 1996 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1996 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1996 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 1996 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.446E+06
2.095E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
9.36E+05

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
0

355,745
205,957
187,234
37,447112,340
54,111-

1.48E+07
9.05E+06
8.09E+06
1.62E+06
4.09E+06
3.76E+07
882,799
898,273

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

12

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/TeRefinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 1996 Refinery use of electricity

67.04
59 GWh or

A1- 145

-

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%882,799
898,2731028
2.13E+05 GJ

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2000(See below for smaller W. Coast Refinery)
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2000 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2000 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2000 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2000 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2000 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
3.72E+05

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
0.00E+00

141,445
81,88974,445
14,88944,66721,515-5.87E+06
3.60E+06
3.22E+06
6.43E+05
1.62E+06
1.50E+07
351,004
357,157

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/TeRefinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2000 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2005(See below for smaller W. Coast Refinery)
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2005 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2005 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2005 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2005 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2005 (TOE)

12

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012

-

% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%351,004
357,157

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
27.61 GWh or
9.94E+04 GJ

West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
5.06E+05

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
0.00E+00

192,217111,283
101,167
20,23360,70029,237-7.98E+06
4.89E+06
4.37E+06
8.74E+05
2.21E+06
2.03E+07
476,996
485,356

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

10

28

12

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/TeInput to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2000 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012

0

% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.0%
476,996
485,356100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
36.90 GWh or
1.33E+05 GJ

A1- 146

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2008(See below for smaller W. Coast Refinery)
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2008 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2008 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2008 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2008 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2008 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
5.12E+05

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
0.00E+00

194,395
112,544
102,313
20,46361,38829,569-8.07E+06
4.95E+06
4.42E+06
8.84E+05
2.23E+06
2.06E+07
482,401
490,857

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

12

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/Te
0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012

0

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2000 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%482,401
490,857100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
37.30 GWh or
1.34E+05 GJ

10Assumption
28

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2009
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2009 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2009 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2009 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2009 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2009 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
1.05E+05
1.45E+06
5.24E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
5.02E+05

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
0.00E+00

190,647
110,375
100,340
20,06860,20428,998-

7.91E+06
4.85E+06
4.34E+06
8.67E+05
2.19E+06
2.02E+07
473,100
481,393

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2009 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)12, 16

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17

Toe/Te
0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012

0

% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%473,100
481,393100%
73.74 10% higher than in 1996
36.62 GWh or
1.32E+05 GJ

A1- 147

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2010
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2010 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2010 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2010 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2010 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2010 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
5.10E+05

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
60,00011, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
51
Toe/Te193,877
112,245
102,041
20,40861,22429,49020,40014,400
9,000
6,600
6,600
3,468

8.04E+06
4.93E+06
4.41E+06
8.82E+05
2.23E+06
2.05E+07
481,117489,550

8.46E+05
6.33E+05
3.89E+05
2.85E+05
2.57E+05
2.41E+06
56,461
57,571

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
38.81%
24.30%
20.94%
5.09%
10.84%
100.00%537,578
547,122

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2010 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

100%
73.74 10% higher than in 1996
41.37 GWh or
1.49E+05 GJ

10Assumption
28

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2014
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2014 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2014 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2014 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2014 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2014 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
5.60E+05

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
51
Toe/Te212,758
123,176
111,978
22,396
67,18732,362-

8.83E+06
5.41E+06
4.84E+06
9.68E+05
2.44E+06
2.25E+07
527,971537,226

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2014 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%527,971537,226100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
40.66 GWh or
1.46E+05 GJ

A1- 148

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2015
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2015 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2015 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2015 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2015 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2015 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
627,120

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
51
Toe/Te238,305
137,966
125,424
25,08575,25436,248-

9.89E+06
6.07E+06
5.42E+06
1.08E+06
2.74E+06
2.52E+07
591,368
601,733

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
-

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
39.25%
24.07%
21.51%
4.30%
10.87%
100.00%591,368
601,733

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2015 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

100%
73.74 10% higher than in 1996
45.34 GWh or
1.63E+05 GJ

10Assumption
28

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2016
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2016 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2016 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2016 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2016 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2016 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
38%
22%
20%
4%
12%
96%
653,102

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
11, 17
51
Toe/Te248,179
143,682
130,620
26,12478,37237,749

-1.03E+07
6.32E+06
5.64E+06
1.13E+06
2.85E+06
2.62E+07
615,868
626,664

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2016 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
3.92E-01
2.41E-01
2.15E-01
4.30E-02
1.09E-01
1.00E+00
615,868
626,664100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
47.14 GWh or
1.70E+05 GJ

A1- 149

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2017
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2017 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2017 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2017 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2017 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2017 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
19.0%
32.1%
23.1%
4.6%
16.6%
95.4%
627,219

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
51
Toe/Te119,172
201,629
144,729
28,946104,194
36,253-

4.94E+06
8.86E+06
6.25E+06
1.25E+06
3.88E+06
2.52E+07
586,132
601,828

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
-

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
19.62%
35.18%
24.82%
4.96%
15.42%
100.00%586,132
601,828

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2017 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

100%
73.74 10% higher than in 1996
44.95 GWh or
1.62E+05 GJ

10Assumption
28

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2018
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2018 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2018 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2018 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2018 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2018 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
19.0%
32.1%
23.1%
4.6%
16.6%
95.4%
696,889

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
51, 56
Toe/Te132,409
224,025
160,805
32,161
115,767
40,280-5.49E+06
9.85E+06
6.95E+06
1.39E+06
4.32E+06
2.80E+07
651,239
668,678

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2018 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
19.62%
35.18%
24.82%
4.96%
15.42%
100.00%651,239
668,678100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
49.75 GWh or
1.79E+05 GJ

A1- 150

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimated Refinery Statistics--2019
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2019 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2019 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2019 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2019 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2019 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
19.0%
32.1%
23.1%
4.6%
16.6%
95.4%
696,889

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
51, 56
Toe/Te132,409
224,025
160,805
32,161
115,767
40,280-5.49E+06
9.85E+06
6.95E+06
1.39E+06
4.32E+06
2.80E+07
651,239
668,678

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
-

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
19.62%
35.18%
24.82%
4.96%
15.42%
100.00%651,239
668,678

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2019 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

100%
73.74 10% higher than in 1996
49.75 GWh or
1.79E+05 GJ

10Assumption
28

Estimated Refinery Statistics--2020
Capacity, barrels of crude/day
Capacity, tonnes of crude per year
Output (Weight fraction of input)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Refinery Input, 2020 (tonnes)
Estimated Refinery Output, 2020 (tonnes)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-energy (gross)
Estimated Refinery Fuel Use (toe)Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2020 (GJ)
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Diesel Oil
Kerosene
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
TOTAL
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2020 (tonnes)
Estimated Net Refinery Output, 2020 (TOE)West Coast
East Coast
2.90E+04
4.20E+04
1.45E+06
2.09E+06
19.0%
32.1%
23.1%
4.6%
16.6%
95.4%
731,889

12

34%
24%
15%
11%
11%
95%
-

11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
11, 17, 58
51, 56
Toe/Te139,059
235,276
168,881
33,776
121,582
42,303-

5.77E+06
1.03E+07
7.30E+06
1.46E+06
4.53E+06
2.94E+07
683,946
702,261

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

Input to/Output of Smaller Western Refinery relative to 2000 Estimate:
Refinery use of electricity, kWh/tonne output
Estimated 2020 Refinery use of electricity(Includes small West Coast refinery)

0.991
1.050
1.032
1.032
1.012
% of Net
20.61%
36.94%
26.06%
5.21%
16.19%
105.02%683,946
702,261100%

73.74 10% higher than in 1996
52.16 GWh or
1.88E+05 GJ

A1- 151

10

Assumption
28

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Crude Oil and Refined Products Imports from and Exports to China, 2000 (kilograms: See Note 18)
Commodityasphaltasphalt coke
crude petroleum and crude oil from asphalt
vehicle use gasoline and aviation gasoline
rubber solvent oil, oil paint solvent
Jet fuellight diesel oilother diesel oil and fuel oil
lubricant greaselubricant oil
lubricant oil basic oilother heavy oilliquefied butane for lighter, volume > 300 cuomother liquefied butane
other unlisted liquefied petroleum gas and other aromatic gas
vaselineparaffin wax, content less than 0.75% in terms of weightmicrocystal wax
unburnt petroleum coke
petroleum asphalt
other petroleum or residuals from asphalt smelting
emulsified asphalt
Total refined products (above less crude oil)

Imports
4,203,170
40,000389,236,142
22,091,731
87,621
46,853,114
29,108,167
3,589,984
168,652
7,781,450
1,789,195

Exports

14,016
19,920,914

16,00030,4004,314,996
75,735
10,0002,200
843,000
211,289563,217
10,450117,475,375

Summary of Above in Refined Products Balance Reporting Categories (tonnes)
Commodity
Imports
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline/Aviation Gasoline
22,092
Diesel Oil
32,698
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
46,853
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
15,832
Total of Above
117,475

24,249,926

Exports
19,921

4,329
24,250Refined Products Imports from and Exports to China, 2005 (tonnes: See Note 30)
Commodity
Light diesel oil
Aviation kerosene
Basic oils for lubricating oils
Lubricating oils
Fuel oils No. 5 ~ No. 7
Other diesel oils and other fuel oils
Lubricating grease
Liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin
Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil
Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline
Rubber solvent, paint solvent, extractive solvent
Other light oils and preparations
PETROLEUM,OTHER GASESPETROLEUM JELLY;WAXESPETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUESBITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED

Imports
46,66846,994
3,629
2,320
3,573
1,187
168
0
4
40,893
3.3
51
497
109
2,865
1.5

Total refined products (above less crude oil)

148,963

Summary of Above in Refined Products Balance Reporting Categories (tonnes)
Commodity
Imports
Heavy Fuel Oil
3,573
Gasoline/Aviation Gasoline
40,893
Diesel Oil
47,855
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
46,994
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
9,646
Total of Above
148,963

A1- 152

Exports

4,393

4,393

Exports
-

4,393
4,393

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Summary of Refined Products Imports from and Exports to China, 2008 through 2010 (tonnes: See Note 30)
2008
2009
Commodity
Imports
Exports
Imports
Light diesel oil
14,047
10,460Aviation kerosene
50,54235,230
Basic oils for lubricating oils
1,681
1,686
Lubricating oils
3,370
1,290
Fuel oils No. 5 ~ No. 7
3,982
2,576
Other diesel oils and other fuel oils
0
1.805
0
Lubricating grease939
142
Liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin00Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil
8306
Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline
43,166
38,738Rubber solvent, paint solvent, extractive solvent
8
20
Other light oils and preparations
0.00
0.00
PETROLEUM,OTHER GASES
480
3,148
543
PETROLEUM JELLY;WAXES
252
117
PETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUES
2,330
3,284
BITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
43
34
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED
18
111
Total refined products (above less crude oil)

120,865

3,150

Summary of Above in Refined Products Balance Reporting Categories (tonnes)
2008
Commodity
Imports
Exports
Heavy Fuel Oil
3,982
Gasoline/Aviation Gasoline
43,166
Diesel Oil
14,047
Kerosene/Jet Fuel50,542
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
9,129
3,148
Total of Above
120,865
3,148

A1- 153

94,5362009
Imports
2,576
38,738
10,46035,2307,533
94,536

2010
Exports

-

2,908

2,908

Exports
-

2,908
2,908

Imports
37,37840,295
1,630
1,872
8,131
4
189
0
4
55,413
88
0.00
113
5,745
215
151,077

Exports

2

2,940

2,943

2010
Imports
Exports
8,131
55,41337,38240,2959,857
2,940
151,077
2,940

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of HFO Stock Build-up and Draw-down Related to HFO Imports from KEDO and 6-PT Agreements
Additions to/depletions
Implied HFO in Storage (yearfrom stocks
end)
See Note 26
Year
GJ
TonnesGJ
Tonnes1996 6.412E+06
154,538
6.41E+06
1.55E+05
1997 -1.245E+06(30,000)
5.17E+06
1.25E+05
1998 -1.245E+06(30,000)
3.92E+06
9.45E+04
1999 -1.245E+06(30,000)
2.68E+06
6.45E+04
2000 -1.245E+06(30,000)
1.43E+06
3.45E+04
2001 -2.075E+05(5,000)1.23E+06
2.95E+04
2002 -2.075E+05(5,000)1.02E+06
2.45E+04
2003 -2.075E+05(5,000)8.11E+05
1.95E+04
2004 -2.075E+05(5,000)6.03E+05
1.45E+04
2005 -2.075E+05(5,000)3.96E+05
9.54E+03
2006 -2.075E+05(5,000)1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2007 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2008 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2009 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2010 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2011 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2012 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2013 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2014 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2015 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2016 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2017 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2018 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2019 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03
2020 0.000E+00
1.88E+05
4.54E+03

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of 2000, 2005, and 2008 - 2010 Imports of Petroleum Products from Russia
Total Imports in 2000 were estimated at:
1.5 kbbl/day
Source 20
at an estimated
7.24 bbl/tonne(assumes average product density of .87 kg/l)
implies an annual level of imports of
7.56E+04 tonnes
The UN Comtrade statistics database for that year lists total export from the RF to the DPRK (see Note 41 ) of
6.86E+03 tonnes, quite a bit lower than the estimate.
Assume that
60% of these imports were diesel/gas oil, and
35% were gasoline
5% were heavy oil or the equivalent, then total
imports from Russia (tonnes) were
4.12E+03 of diesel,
2.40E+03 gasoline, and3.43E+02 heavy oil.
Imports in 2005 are estimated at
7 kbbl/day on average. This is a rough estimate, pending
receipt of better data, but yields an approximate value for oil exports from Russia to the DPRK, if one
assumes an average price of$70 per bbl, of$
178.85 million, which is about
the level of 2005 oil products trade suggested by Petrov (see Note 41 ).
Implied annual level of imports,
3.53E+05 tonnes
The UN Comtrade statistics database for that year lists total export from the RF to the DPRK (see Note 41 ) of
338,919 tonnes oil products.
Assume that
65% of these imports are diesel/gas oil, and
0% are gasoline (based on trade statistics), and
35% are heavy oil or the equivalent, then total
import from Russia were
2.29E+05 of diesel and4.63E-01 of gasoline
1.24E+05 of heavy oil.
Imports in 2008 are estimated at
1 kbbl/day on average. This is a rough estimate, pending
receipt of better data, but yields an approximate value for oil exports from Russia to the DPRK, if one
assumes an average price of$90 per bbl, of$
27.45 million, which is about
the level of 2008 petroleum products trade suggested by combining data on "mineral products" trade in Note 40
with petroleum products trade from data from Note 41 . This implies
5.04E+04 tonnes total imports.
The UN Comtrade statistics database for that year lists total export from the RF to the DPRK (see Note 41 ) of
42,126 tonnes oil products.
Assume that
80% of these imports are diesel/gas oil, and
0% are gasoline, and
20% are heavy oil or the equivalent, then total
imports from Russia were
3.37E+04 of diesel and1.40E+00 of gasoline
8.42E+03 of heavy oil.
The UN Comtrade statistics database for 2009 lists total export from the RF to the DPRK (see Note 41 ) of
4,318 tonnes oil products.
Assume that
40% of these imports are diesel/gas oil, and
0% are gasoline (based on trade statistics), and
60% are heavy oil or the equivalent, then total
1.73E+03 of diesel and5.68E-01 of gasoline
2.59E+03 of heavy oil.
The UN Comtrade statistics database for 2010 lists total export from the RF to the DPRK (see Note 41 ) of
28,333 tonnes oil products.
Assume that
95% of these imports are diesel/gas oil, and
0.004% are gasoline (based on trade statistics), and
5% are heavy oil or the equivalent, then total
2.69E+04 of diesel and1.06E+00 of gasoline
1.42E+03 of heavy oil.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Year 2000 Oil products imports from other countries
Oil products imports from Japan
4.43E+04 tonnes
Fraction as heavy fuel oil:
99.51%
Fraction as non-energy (solvents and lubricants):
0.49%
Total imports of heavy fuel oil from Japan
4.41E+04 tonnes
Total imports of non-energy petrol. products from Japan
2.15E+02 tonnes

See Note 21

Oil products from Singapore:

See Note 22

Value:
Volume:Implying an average price ofYear 2000 average price per gallon:$9,986,108
56,649.85 tonnes$
176.28 per tonne$
0.78 gasoline$
0.77 gasoil
at an average density of
0.74 kg/liter for gasoline andand
0.87 kg/liter for diesel andat
3.78 liters per gallon
implies year 2000 average prices per tonne:$
277.45 for gasoline
235.99 for diesel
Since the average price paid in 2000 by the DPRK was lower than the diesel (gasoil) pricecalculated above, we assume that imports are
15% gasoline and85% diesel, and thus total
implied oil imports are

See Note 23

8.50E+03 tonnes of gasoline and4.82E+04 tonnes of diesel.

Oil Products from the ROK:
Rough estimate of maximum rate of imports from ROK:
10,000 Bbl/day for
See Note 24
10% of the year, or an average of1000 Bbl/day.
Assume that these oil products are (or can be used as)
70% diesel
and30% heavy fuel oil at an assumed density of
0.95 kg/liter.
This implies imports from the ROK of
16,515 tonnes of heavy fuel oil and
35,290 of diesel.
Imports and Exports Associated with Asphalt Use for Road (see worksheet "Oil_Asphalt")
Middle of estimated asphalt requirements for Nampo-Pyongyang Road built in 2000
48,214 tonnes
Assumed mass of heavy oil traded (probably to China) per tonne asphalt received:
1.00 , which implies heavy fuel oil exports of:

A1- 156

48,214 tonnes

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of Output of Smaller West Coast Refinery (see Note 25)
We know little about the small refinery on the West Coast of the DPRK, except that it is thought to be
dedicated all or in part to the military, and is a relatively crude fractionation or "topper"-type refinery.
It is not know where the oil for this refinery comes from--it could be some of the Russian oil described above,or could be oil supplied in barter from China (and thus not part of trade statistics), or could be purchasedon the spot market. It operates in a batch mode, and reportedly had an capacity factor of
about
20% in 2000. We do not know the capacity of this refinery, but estimate it below basedon what is known about the capacity of the oil-fired power plant that is near the refinery site, and on thefollowing rough estimates of refinery outputs and related assumptions.
Fraction of heavy fuel oil produced by the refinery used in the nearby power plant:
95% Assumption
Gross efficiency of power plant (assumes relatively poor condition and operation in a cogeneration
mode to provide steam for the refinery).
19%
Implied heavy oil input to power plant:
1,991,747 GJ, or
47,572 toe when the
powerplant and refinery operate at full capacity. Assuming that the refinery and power plant operate at thecapacity level indicated above, the output of the refinery is roughly:
Implied Output
Output (Energy fraction of input)
Assumptions
toe
GJ
Heavy Fuel Oil
41%
10,015
4.19E+05
Gasoline
24%
5,863
2.45E+05
Diesel Oil
21%
5,130
2.15E+05
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
5%1,221
5.11E+04
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy
5%1,221
5.11E+04
TOTAL
96%
23,4509.82E+05
Implied required crude oil input to refinery

24,427 toe or
1.02E+06 GJ
The refinery would produce
1.17E+05 toe operating at full capacity, with
crude oil input of
1.22E+05 toe.
Consider
0% of these inputs to be crude oil imports not accounted for elsewhere. For 2000 and2005 it is assumed that the DPRK has produced roughly 30,000 tonnes per year of crude oil from domestic
sources (see Note 27). The reported site of the oil production is close enough to the reported site of thesmall West Coast refinery, and the estimated volume is on the same order of magnitude as
the assumed output of DPRK crude oil, that we assume that either the domestic production goes to the small
West Coast refinery, or, if there is in fact no significant domestic crude oil production in the DPRK, the crude
oil used as feedstock from that refinery is imported from elsewhere (that is, is not captured in China Customs
Statistics, or may come from Russia by truck or coastal tanker, or directly or indirectly from one of the countries
that report oil exports to the DPRK, but in quantities that seem unreasonably high; see Note 49 ).
Input of refinery fuel to refinery (own use) atabove, for a total of
1,412 toe orplus the "shrinkage" indicated above at
For a total of

977 toe or
2,389 toe orRefinery Net Output (for LEAP) is

22,038 toe

0.0578 toe/te of input at
5.91E+04 GJ
4.09E+04 GJ
1.00E+05 GJ

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Year 2005 Oil products imports from other countries
Oil products imports from Japan
99.46 tonnes
Fraction as heavy fuel oil:
75.01%
Fraction as non-energy (solvents and lubricants):
24.99%
Total imports of heavy fuel oil from Japan
74.61 tonnes
Total imports of non-energy petrol. products from Japan
24.86 tonnes
Oil products from Singapore:

Assume that imports arean average density ofandimplied oil imports are

See Note 34

Reported value:
Reported quantity:
Implied average price:$904,790
See Note 35
952.04 tonnes$
950.37 per tonne
100% gasoline and
0% diesel, and thus having
0.74 kg/liter for gasoline and0.87 kg/liter for diesel and9.52E+02 tonnes of gasoline and0.00E+00 tonnes of diesel.

Oil products from India:
No oil products were reported exported by India to the DPRK in India's reporting year
2005-2006, so we assume that0 tonnes of oil products werereceived in the DPRK by India in that year.
Oil Products from the ROK:
Rough estimate of rate of imports from ROK:
10,000 Bbl/day for
See Note 24
5% of the year, or an average of
500 Bbl/day.
Assume that these oil products are (or can be used as)
70% diesel
and30% heavy fuel oil at an assumed density of
0.95 kg/liter.
then at3.78 liters per gallon,
This implies imports from the ROK of
8,258 tonnes of heavy fuel oil and
17,645 of diesel.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Year 2008 through 2010 Oil products imports from other countries
Oil products imports from Japan, 2008
53.89 tonnes
See Note 38
Fraction as heavy fuel oil:
90.42%
Fraction as non-energy (solvents and lubricants):
9.58%
Total imports of heavy fuel oil from Japan
48.73 tonnes
Total imports of non-energy petrol. products from Japan
5.16 tonnes
Oil products imports from Japan, 2009
Imports from Japan in 2009 (and 2010/2011) relative to 2008
0% from UN Comtrade Statistics
Total imports of heavy fuel oil from JapantonnesTotal imports of non-energy petrol. products from JapantonnesOil products from Singapore (2008 - 2010):
Reported value:
Reported quantity:
Implied average price:$
Assume that imports were
2008
2009
0%
100%
100%
0%
2008
2009
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.13E+05
4.31E+01

2008$42,004,340 $
112,733.46
372.60 $2009
100,937 $43.12
2,340.84 $2010
43,875 See Note 35
21.81 tonnes
2,011.69 per tonne

2010
100% gasoline and
0% diesel, thus annual estimated imports were:2010
2.18E+01 tonnes of gasoline and0.00E+00 tonnes of diesel.

Oil products from Malaysia (2009):
Reported value:
Reported quantity:
Implied average price:

$
$

2009
1,427,390 See Note 45
3,718.48 tonnes
383.86 per tonne

Assume that imports were2009
0% gasoline and100% diesel, thus annual estimated imports were:2009
0.00E+00 tonnes of gasoline and3.72E+03 tonnes of diesel.
No imports to the DPRK from Malaysia were recorded in UN Comtrade in 2010 (or 2011).
Oil products from India:
Indian customs statistics (see Note 43 ) include huge, and in all likelihood impossibly huge, exports ofoil products from India to the DPRK in 2008 and 2009. The categories of these recorded
exports (largely napthas and other products that may be inputs for the chemical industry),
their volumes, and the volumes (typically of the same order of magnitude or larger for the same
products) of products that India reports were exported from India to the ROK, suggest that the large
volumes exported to the DPRK probably mostly, if not totally, represent mis-reporting by India,
as has been suggested by other analysts. Moreover, the value of HS 27 (fuel products) tradereported by the ROK as coming from India (the vast bulk of which is in petroleum products),
several billion dollars worth per year in recent years, issignificantly greater in both of these years than the volume of exports to the ROK reported byIndia. We are inclined, pending further research into this issue, to conclude that the export ofof petroleum products from India to the DPRK in 2008 and 2009 was probably non-zero, but small.
As placeholder assumptions, we assume that the following volumes of fuel were exported to
the DPRK from India:
2008
2009
2010
2.00E+04
4.00E+04
0.00E+00 tonnes of gasoline and0.00E+00
6.44E+04
39,920 tonnes of diesel.
Values above for gasoline are guesses. Significant exports to DPRK from India are reported in a
category that would include gasoline (possibly "off-spec"?) and other light oil products, but
the volumes reported, as noted above, are sufficiently high as to be not credible.
2009 diesel imports are are reported in the Indian statistics, and 2010 non-light oil products
are listed in UN Comtrade statistics. These may well be over-estimates,
given that the ROK also imported large quantities of diesel (or rather, non-specified diesel-like fuels)in the same years, but it would seem consistent with the much lower volumes of diesel imported fromSingapore in 2009 relative to 2008--that is, maybe the DPRK got their supplies from India instead.
An interesting, but hardly definitive, additional note about reported Indian petroleum products
exports to the DPRK is that significant quantities of HS 27101190, of which at least one transformer
oil is an example, were recorded. Perhaps the DPRK imported transformer oil in an attempt
to improve the performance of their electrical tranformers? This is probably not likely, but intriguing.

A1- 159

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Oil Products from the ROK (2008/2009/2010):
See Note 24
12,000 Bbl/day for
Rough estimate of rate of imports from ROK:
840 Bbl/day.
7% of the year, or an average of
85% diesel
Assume that these oil products are (or can be used as)
0.87 kg/liter for diesel andat
0.95 kg/liter.
15.0% heavy fuel oil at an assumed density of
and3.78 liters per gallon,
Conversion:
6,936 tonnes of heavy fuel oil andThis implies imports from the ROK of
35,996 of diesel.
Oil Products from Other Countries (2008 - 2010; see Note 47 ):UN Comtrade data lists oil exports from a number of other countries, besides the ones identified
individually above, for 2008 and 2009. These are mostly quite small quantities.
Most of the quantity under HS 271019 imported in 2008 seems to come from the Netherlands(see Note 46 ). The totals for
HS 271019 (assumed to be diesel or similar) and HS 271011 (assumed to be gasoline or similar)
are provided below. It is possible that some of these could be specialty oils or lubricants.
2009
2008
Implied price
Implied price($/te)
Quantity (te)Value($/te)
Quantity (te)Value
415.04
3,947.21 $1,638,241546.18 $5,927.89 $$ 3,237,684
HS 271019
578.13
28,669.55 $16,574,700
944.58 $52,588.23 $$ 49,673,911
HS 271011
2010
Implied price($/te)
Quantity (te)Value
1,110.83
40,177.54 $$ 44,630,588
HS 271019
705.91
27,574.31 $$ 19,464,875
HS 271011
Even including all recorded (and in the case of ROK, guessed at) oil products imports, 2009 and 2010 were unusually low
60,000 tonnes of diesel fuelyears for supplies of diesel fuel. We assume that an additional
was available for use in the DPRK in 2009, though the source could have been unrecorded (smuggled) imports,
50,000 tonnes of diesel fuel were somehow imported.
For 2010, we assume that an additional
In 2009, these imports could be thouse reported in Comtrade statistics as being from India but that we have provisionallysuggested were probably imports into the ROK instead (this would be about equal to the amount ofheavier oil products recorded as shipped from India to the DPRK in 2009; see note 47 ),withdrawls from stocks, or possibly refinery output from crude oil imports (see, for example, Note 51 ) that were
not recorded otherwise. These amounts of oil are equivalent to one or two cargo deliveries by a small to medium-sizedtanker ship.

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Estimates of HFO and "Other Petroleum" (mostly Non-Energy) Imports in Other Years (for LEAP database), tonnes
In Non-KEDO column, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005 values from above, others are interpolated.
Heavy Fuel Oil
KEDO/6Year
Non-KEDO Party Talks
Total
Other Petrol.
1990
150,0000
150,000
16,068
1991
141,423
0
141,423
16,068
1992
132,8470132,847
16,068
1993
124,2700124,270
16,068
1994
115,694
0
115,694
16,068
1995
107,117150,000
257,117
16,068
1996
98,541500,000
598,541
16,068
1997
110,138
500,000
610,138
16,068
1998
121,735
500,000
621,735
16,068
1999
133,333
500,000
633,333
16,068
2000
144,930
394,722539,652
64,282
2001
142,313559,613
701,926
14,789
2002
139,696456,893596,589
13,5092003
137,0800137,080
12,2302004
134,4630134,463
10,951
2005
131,847
0131,847
9,671
2006
85,151085,1519,496
2007
46,787
146,000
192,787
9,321 See Notes 41 and 42 for 6-PT totals
2008
15,409304,000
319,4099,145 See Notes 41 and 42 for 6-PT totals
2009
9,527
0
9,527
7,538 See Notes 41 and 42 for 6-PT totals
2010
16,483
0
16,483
9,917 See Notes 41 and 42 for 6-PT totals
2011
0
2012
0
2013
0
2014
0
2015
0
2016
0
2017
0
2018
0
Calculation of Net Refining Output Shares by Year, for LEAP Input, based on Balance figures and data above
Fuel Category

Gasoline
Aviation Gas
Kero/Jet
DieselResidual Oil
LPG
Other
TOTAL

1990
24.2%
1.03%
8.45%
18.5%
36.8%
2.0%
9.0%
100.0%

1996
21.8%
2.32%
4.30%
21.5%
39.2%
4.7%
6.1%
100.0%

2000
20.1%
4.12%
4.37%
21.6%
39.6%
4.1%
6.1%
100.0%

2005
22.0%
2.14%
4.36%
21.6%
39.52%
7.13%
3.22%
100.0%

2008
22.0%
2.23%
4.36%
21.6%
39.5%
7.13%
3.2%
100.0%

2009
22.0%
2.23%
4.36%
21.6%
39.5%
6.80%
3.6%
100.0%

2010
22.4%
2.01%
5.11%
21.0%
39.1%
6.81%
3.6%
100.0%

Refined product balances in this workbook do not separately estimate LPG and "other" oil products. At present, we assume thefollowing fractions by year of the aggregate category "LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy" is composed of LPG.
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
12%
28%
25%
43%
43%
41%
41%
These fractions will vary by year and be different for different refineries.

A1- 161Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Reference 3 reports 2.8 Mte. Note that the Korea Foreign Trade Association, in "Major Economic Indicators
for North Korea", 1993. P. 33, lists a total of 2.43 million te oil, which
includes imports from the former USSR, China, and Iran, but apparently does not include oil purchased
On the spot mark et. 1990 figures. Other sources suggest that 2.8 Mte in 1990 is an over-estimate, thus
we have assumed crude oil imports of 2.6 Mte in 1990.
2 Based on figures in: "Progress of Energy Saving in China's Petrochemical Industry", W.B. Shen, in
Energy Mark ets and the Future of Energy Demand , LBL, 1988, p. 24-2.
3 Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea , RINU, 1993. P. 40
4 Young Sik Jang, North Korean Energy Economics , Korea Development Institute, 1994 (p. 62)
5 Exports to the DPRK from China. Source: China Customs Statistics.
6 Probably mostly gasoline (David Fridley, Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory, Personal Communication).
7 Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO, 1996), Korean Peninsula Energy
Development Organization, Annual Report, 1995 . KEDO, Washington, D.C., July 31, 1996
8 Calculated estimate based on difference between estimated demand and estimated supply for heavy oil in 1996.
9 Note that 110% of estimated 1996 imports approximates the level of refined products imported from
China (at least officially) as of 1993 (Sinton, J. (1996), China Energy Databook ).
10 Net of refinery gas used in-plant, and calculated as LPG/Refinery gas-(input-other products output-refining loss)
11 Data for Western refinery estimates based on similar Chinese plants from David Fridley, Lawrence Berk eley
National Laboratory (personal communication, 12/96). Data for Eastern (Russian-built) refinery from Source 17.
Estimate from Fridley was modified by reducing heavy oil total by 7% to account for probable productionof heavy non-energy products (bitumens/asphalts, petroleum cok e, wax, lubricants), based very roughly
on Chinese petroleum output statistics for 1990 (from Sinton, J. ( China Energy Databook ), p. II-55).
12 From International Petroleum Encyclopedia, 1996. Confirmed by other sources. East coast refinery has
7,300 barrels per day fluid crack ing capacity.
13 Several sources have suggested that little, if any, crude oil beyond that imported from China has come into
the DPRK in the two years prior to 1997--possibly one cargo at most (which would have been refined at Sonbong)--and almost certainly not in 1996.
14 Includes petroleum product imports reported to be "one-half of the output" of a 750,000 te (output)
Chinese refinery located north of the Tumen River. This refinery is assumed to operate at a maximumof 80 percent of capacity (David Fridley, personal communication), yielding total output of 600,000 tonnes.
Output shares of that refinery are assumed to be the same as in the West Coast DPRK refinery, but
it is assumed that the products exported to the DPRK are weighted slightly toward diesel and gasoline
and away from HFO, based on the higher need for motor fuels in the DPRK and the need for HFO to fuelpower plants in adjacent areas of China. Our assumption is that 10,000 tonnes more of gasoline and ofdiesel are exported to the DPRK, and 20,000 tonnes less of HFO, relative to simply splitting the productslate of the refinery evenly between the two countries. For 1996, product imports also include 50,000 te eachof gasoline and diesel reported to be provided by ship and rail from Russia.
[Industry source--should be confirmed independently]

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
15 For 2000, includes quantities reported separately from the ROK, Russia, Singapore, and Japan, plus
amounts of products similar to those received in 1996 from the Chinese refinery near the border (note 14).
16 [Not used]
17 Personal communication [QR 9/97].
18 Exports to the DPRK from China from China Customs Report 2000 , pp. 1483-1495 (in Chinese).
19 From "Appendix 1: HFO Deliveries" of Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)
Annual Report 2001 , obtained from www.k edo.org, 5/31/2002. Note that this figure is for oil actually
delivered during the calendar year 2000, as two of the shipments of the "HFO Year 2000" occurred in 2001.
Other annual reports from the same website (as of 2/2008) yield the following data for other years
Yeartonnes HFO delivered by calendar year
1995
150,000 estimate based on stated plans
1996
500,000 estimate based on stated plans
1997
500,000 estimate based on stated plans
1998
500,000 estimate based on stated plans
1999
500,000 estimate based on stated plans
2000
394,722
2001
559,613
2002
456,893
2003-onnone
Sum of above 3,561,228
Sum of all deliveries as reported in 2002 KEDO Annual Report
3,520,000
Since these two figures are very close, we use the unadjusted estimates for 1995 through 1999 as estimatesof KEDO HFO deliveries in those years.
20 Industry source reports probable barter imports of oil products ("gas oil and light crude") from Russia at "lessthan 1.5 k bbl/day". We have assumed an average of 1500 bbl/day.
21 From Japan customs statistics, http://www.customs.go.jp/touk ei/info/index_e.htm. Composed of
a combination of products, but 99 percent by mass are in the class designated "HS# 271000400".
The designation of this code appears to be Heavy Fuel Oil of some k ind, which is consistent with its
specific gravity of near one.
22 Based on text in "Singapore" section of "Current Status and Features of North Korean Foreign Tradeof the First Half of 2001", from www.k otra.or.k r/main/common_bbs which suggests that the maximum
value of oil exports to the DPRK in the first half of 2000 would have been about $8.5 million (but could
have been considerably less). The actual data on sales of oil products from Singapore to the DPRK in 2000 are
as follows (from UN Comtrade statistics) for HS 271000 (oil products):
Trade value:$9,986,108 volume (kg)56,649,852 implied cost:$

176.28 $/tonne

23 Data from the US DOE Energy Information Administration (table http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum(downloaded from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html#Motor)
suggests that spot prices for diesel fuel and gasoline in Singapore averaged$
0.7761 and$
0.7735 per gallon, respectively, in 2000.
These figures are used to roughly calculate oil product quantities purchased from Singapore.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
24 An industry source suggests that the ROK sent to the DPRK in 2000 a maximum of "8 - 10 k bbl/day of off-spec
HSFO for brief periods". "Off-spec" fuels do not meet ROK specifications for quality. We assume
a rate of shipment of about 10 k bbl/day for about 10 percent of 2000. Lack ing additional information, we
assume a lower rate of exports from the ROK to the DPRK in 2005, 2008. and 2009.
25 Information on this refinery from industry sources. Fuel output shares of refinery are very roughNautilus estimates.
26 Assumes, based on industry sources, that relatively little KEDO HFO remained in storage at the end of 2000.
We assume that stock s accrued in 1996 were drawn down at
30,000 tonnes per year through 2002,
when KEDO deliveries ceased, then were drawn down more slowly, at
5000 tonnes per year, through 2006.
27 There have been reports that the DPRK "began to produce crude oil in a sea well off Suk chon
County, South Pyongan Province" in 1998 (Lee Kyo Kwan, writing on www.chosun.com, "North Korea
Exports Petroleum", probably sometime in 2001). This article suggests, without citing any figuresthat DPRK production was significant enough to allow the reduction of petroleum imports. Though ourconversations with some experts in the industry have suggested that any production from DPRK wells was minimal,
other sources in the literature suggest that DPRK oil production has indeed been enough to supply a significant
fraction of DPRK needs. For example, Selig Harrison writes in Toward Oil and Gas Cooperationin Northeast Asia: New Opportunities for Reducing Dependence on the Middle East (published as
Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars Asia Program Special Report No. 106 , dated December
2002, and available as http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/asiarpt_106.pdf), that"an oil well [in Suk chon] began producing 2.2 million barrels annually in 1999". This is similar to a figure oftonnes crude oil per year quoted in several publications by Keun-Wook Paik , including
Pipeline Gas Introduction to the Korean Peninsula , published by Chatham House, January 2005, andavailable as http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk /pdf/research/sdp/KPJan05.pdf.
In the Chatham House report, Paik writes (p. 37) "Even though the scale of annual crude oil production fromthe Sook -Cheong County’s Anju Basin is very small (0.3 mt/y), to the North Korean authorities it is a significant volume."
In personal correspondence with Dr. Paik , he indicates that the information for this estimate came from an article
in the ROK press in approximately 2001, and that while he has not seen the quantity of oil production confirmed, hehe believes that some oil production is ongoing. Dr. Harrison indicates that his figure for DPRK oil
production was lik ely tak en from the work of Dr. Paik , or from the same original source. Other experts in the field
consulted on this question have expressed sk epticism that DPRK domestic oil production to date, if any, hasbeen even close to as significant as the quantity reported.
Accordingly, it is possible that a more reasonable figure for ongoing DPRK domestic oil production isof this reported value (which might also have been misreported due to an error in reporting units, as happens
occasionally in the DPRK and elsewhere).
Oil from this production could go to the small western refinery, apparently located nearby.

300,000

10%

Another reference to the chronology of oil exploration in the DPRK includes the statement "The DPRK obtained 450 barrels of
petroleum in the offshore areas of Nampo" ("Interview with DPRK's Oil Project Planner" [Mr. Choi Dong Ryong],
The People's Korea , 1998, available as http://www1.k orea-np.co.jp/pk /073rd_issue/98120902.htm). Given that Nampo iswell south of Suk chon county.it seems unlik ely, though not impossible, that this production and the 1998 production describedabove are from the same offshore oilfield.
An alternative estimate of DPRK oil production, from index mundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=k n&v=88), based ondata from the CIA World Factbook , which suggests that DPRK oil production in 2004 to 2007 was about 140 bbl per day, declining
to 118 bbl per day in 2009 (and 2010, according to the CIA World Factbook ). See that graph below. At
140 bbly/day, oil
production would have been about
51,100 bbl/yr, which, at
7.3 bbl/tonne, would be
7,000
tonnes/yr. This is lower than the rough estimate above, though approximately on the same order of magnitude.
Both estimates are lik ely to be quite speculative, but we use the CIA estimate for this analysis because it seems consistent withqualitative reports to date. For 2009 and 2010, we therefore use
118 bbly/day of oil production, or
5,900
tonnes/yr, pending receipt of more specific information.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
28 Calculated based on 1990 data for China from J.E. Sinton, ed (1992). China Energy Databook .
Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory, Berk eley, CA, USA. (Revised 1996).
29 The website http://www.answers.com/topic/north-k orea, visited 1/15/07, listed oil pipelines in the
DPRK of total length 154 k m as of 2004.
30 China Customs Statistics reported crude oil exports from China to the DPRK of
522,844.40 tonnes
in 2005. As compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006, 2008, and 2010. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's 2006 paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
Crude oil and oil products imports to DPRK from China, as indicated by the same source, are as follows for other years:(Values for 1992-95, 1997, 1998, 2010 and 2011 and on are from UN Comtrade database.)
Crude Oil
(Reported Oil "(Not Crude)" "PETROLEUM"PETROLEUM
Year
Trades)(Reported)
COKE,RESIDU"
OTHER GASES"
1992 1,005,642
1993 1,032,954
1994
832,786
1995 1,021,520
1996
936,170
66,5331,845
1997
506,147
1998
503,9311999
317,241
122,966.47
1,791.57
11.13 Units: metric tonnes
2000
389,236
111,501.04
1,617.51
46.40
2001
579,278
109,311.22
2,065.68
149.80
2002
472,167
82,471.55
6,547.86
215.85
2003
573,558
124,726.96
4,369.66
232.34
2004
531,785
127,968.58
5,283.75
354.37
2005
522,844
145,506.35
2,864.52
496.802006
524,040
122,303.02
1,532.99
755.77
2007
523,160
147,678.87
3,083.45
770.05
2008
528,577
117,742.86
2,330.22
479.73
2009
519,814
126,741.40
3,283.52
543.002010
528,315
145,015.29
5,638.29
663.702011
526,176
188,700.24
7,063.80
4,311.46
2012
523,041
146,794.55
3,128.02
2,164.11
2013
578,002
105,037.32
4,174.47
2,577.17
2014
166,128.30
11,057.33
3,157.95
2015
218,087.25
11,540.78
3,031.28
2016
274,066.75
4,780.05
1,074.68
2017
90,865.51
6,590.60
1,765.31
2018
6,912.69
12,244.49
1,715.55
20192020
All crude oil shipped to the DPRK from China was recorded as coming from the Dalian district from 1999-2005.
No official reports of exports of refined products were available in the UN Comtrade statistics for 2019 and 2020 as of 5/1/2020.
No crude trades reported by from 2014-2020, but trade us assumed to have continued. See Note 56.

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A1- 166

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Units: Kilograms
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL
27101921
Light diesel oil
27101911
Aviation kerosene
27101993
Basic oils for lubricating oils
27101991
Lubricating oils
27101922
Fuel oils No. 5 ~ No. 7
27101929
Other diesel oils and other fuel oils
27101992
Lubricating grease
27101994
Liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin
27101999
Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

82,471,546

124,726,964

127,968,583

145,506,346

122,303,020

63,900,162

78,280,544

89,821,556

104,543,577

91,422,768

3,647,230

20,871,299

34,458,192

46,668,386

46,649,237

46,307,578

46,572,203

46,994,450

2,722,165

3,435,866

2,524,002

3,628,783

6,366,340

4,170,232

2,705,837

2,320,426

2,569,560

2,600,000

3,573,156

4,268,282

490,000-

1,186,911

246,908

254,890

183,135

167,665

Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL
27101921
Light diesel oil
27101911
Aviation kerosene
27101993
Basic oils for lubricating oils
27101991
Lubricating oils
27101922
Fuel oils No. 5 ~ No. 7
27101929
Other diesel oils and other fuel oils
27101992
Lubricating grease
27101994
Liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin
27101999
Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil

-

990

-

180,129

2007

A1- 167-170

778,187

3,630

2008

2009

147,678,866

117,742,858

90,447,291

145,015,288

2010*

192,387,198

2011*

122,963,762

74,568,855

51,689,392

89,502,995

130,414,603

12,496,241

14,046,689

10,460,146

37,377,619

77,062,665

51,205,986

50,542,083

35,229,535

40,294,669

40,611,621

1,958,658

1,680,951

1,686,362

1,630,412

1,830,858

1,942,129

3,370,020

1,289,901

1,872,114

1,175,256

9,422,740

3,981,836

2,575,871

8,131,040

9,269,624

45,789,974

-

-

3,960

-

139,217

938,921

141,577

189,221

184,374

-

-

-

-

1,980

8,817

8,355

306,000

3,960

278,225

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
2012 and 2013 include trades
w ith Hong Kong SAR
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL
27101921
Light diesel oil
27101911
Aviation kerosene
27101993
Basic oils for lubricating oils
27101991
Lubricating oils
27101922
Fuel oils No. 5 ~ No. 7
27101929
Other diesel oils and other fuel oils
27101992
Lubricating grease
27101994
Liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin
27101999
Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

146,794,545

105,037,323

166,128,300

218,087,246

274,066,748

90,865,506

6,912,693

2019
-

2020
-

95,095,269

51,028,254

87,396,626

123,078,114

177,899,648

44,523,546

6,873,273--*2010 and 2011 values by product (above, for category 27109, and below for 27011 in 2011) are based on values from China Customs database as compiled by Nate Aden, 10-3-2012.
Most other values from UN Comtrade statistics.

Units: Kilograms
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271011 LIGHT OILS & PREP (NOT CRUDE)
27101227101927101110
Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline
27101130
Rubber solvent, paint solvent, extractive solvent
27101190
Other light oils and preparations
27101199
Other light oils and preparations
Differences from totals for 2710

Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271011 LIGHT OILS & PREP (NOT CRUDE)
27101227101927101110
Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline
27101130
Rubber solvent, paint solvent, extractive solvent
27101190
Other light oils and preparations
27101199
Other light oils and preparations
Differences from totals for 2710

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

82,471,546

124,726,964

127,968,583

145,506,346

122,303,020

147,678,866

117,742,858

18,571,384

46,446,418

38,147,027

40,947,469

30,880,249

24,715,104

43,174,003

63,900,162

78,280,544

89,821,556

104,543,577

91,422,768

122,963,762

18,328,384

46,199,539

38,144,787

40,893,374

24,574,734

43,165,743

143,000

188,179

2,240

3,300

140,370

8,260

100,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

58,700-50,795--2-

15,300

2009

2010*

2008

-

-

2011*

2012

2013

2014

2015

90,447,291

145,015,288

192,387,198

146,794,545

105,037,323

166,128,300

218,087,246

38,757,899

55,501,253

58,285,641
56,330,475

54,158,294

78,731,274

95,009,132

95,095,269

51,028,254

87,396,626

123,078,114(4,631,199)(149,225)

400

38,737,609

55,413,344

58,182,039

20,29087,909103,602

-

-

-

-

-

11,040A1- 1683,686,954-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271011 LIGHT OILS & PREP (NOT CRUDE)
27101227101927101110
Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline
27101130
Rubber solvent, paint solvent, extractive solvent
27101190
Other light oils and preparations
27101199
Other light oils and preparations
Differences from totals for 2710

2016

2017*

274,066,748

90,865,506

96,167,100

46,341,960

177,899,648

44,523,546-

A1- 169-2018
6,912,693
030,0206,873,273

2019

2020
0

0

0
0

0
0

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Units: Metric Tonnes
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2712
PETROLEUM JELLY;WAXES
2713
PETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUES
2714
BITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
2715
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED
Above data (1992-2001) from UN Comtraded Database

1992

1993
93.2
486.9
-

8,518.0-

1994
6,591.7-

1995
17,908.6
-

1996
3.2
1,844.7
-

1997
113.1
781.8
5.0
57.5

1998
13.1
1,227.4
-

1999
95.5
1,791.6-

2018
8,401.8
1,715.6
43.2
12,244.5
0.7
4.7

2019
-

Units: Metric Tonnes
Commodity
Code

2708
2711
2712
2713
2714
2715
Commodity
Code

2708
2711
2712
2713
2714
2715
Commodity
Code

2708
2711
2712
2713
2714
2715

Product/Product GroupPITCH,COKE FM MN TARSPETROLEUM,OTHER GASESPETROLEUM JELLY;WAXESPETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUESBITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED

2000
4,243.2
46.4
87.9
1,617.5
10.5
-

2001
4,306.3
149.8
59.0
2,065.7
2.0
8.0

2002
4,959.2
215.9
187.0
6,547.9-

2003
6,179.5
232.3
157.8
4,369.7
26.1
29.0

2004
4,488.2354.4
149.0
5,283.8
0.5
1.6

2005
5,720.6
496.8
108.9
2,864.5
1.5

Product/Product GroupPITCH,COKE FM MN TARSPETROLEUM,OTHER GASESPETROLEUM JELLY;WAXESPETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUESBITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED

2006
5,560.9755.8
133.2
1,533.0
0.5-

2007
6,186.5
770.1
111.2
3,083.5
9.8-

2008
5,901.5479.7
251.8
2,330.2
42.8
17.6

2009
7,635.3
543.0
117.1
3,283.5
34.0
111.2

2010
11,053663.7
113.055,745.3
214.6

2011
8,759.3
1,292.2
126.9
7,063.8
102.0

Product/Product GroupPITCH,COKE FM MN TARSPETROLEUM,OTHER GASESPETROLEUM JELLY;WAXESPETROLEUM COKE,RESIDUESBITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND
BITUMEN,TAR RELATED

2012
7,612.7
2,164.1
103.9
3,128.0
1.7
127.3

2013
7,386.0
2,577.17
80.4
4,174.5

2014
5,010.0
3,158.0
52.2
11,057.3
0.4
50.4

2015
7,391.1
3,031.3
50.4
11,540.8
2,347.6

2016
6,784.7
1,074.7
55.8
4,780.1
123.6

201712,366.8
1,765.3
77.3
6,590.6
2.1
2.0

101.042020-

Note that the highlighted values for "oil, not crude" in the first table in this note does not match the value for the same quantity in the second and third tables. The reason for thisis that in its 2009 customs statistics, China placed four months ( August-November 2009) of its exports to the DPRK under the category "Asia, NES".
The total in the first table above includes exports from China to "NES", while the totals in the second and third tables do not. As a consequence, we have attempted to categorize theindividual fuels in the additional "Asia NES"-designated imports (about 37,000 tonnes total) by fuel type in the calculations in the "Refined Products Imports
from and Exports to China, 2008 and 2009" table above. Relevant data from the UN Comtrade database for 2009 through 2011 (exports to the DPRK from China) are as follows:

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
2009
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271011 LIGHT OILS & PREP (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL$

Value (USD)
69,252,199$26,288,119$42,964,080

2010
Volume (kg)Value (USD)
126,741,402 $ 104,886,571
50,621,296$40,629,283
76,120,106$64,257,288

Export to China from the DPRK as recorded (by China) in the UN COMTRADE database are as follows:2009
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)

Value (USD)

Volume (kg)$2013
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL

Value (USD)

Product/Product Group
2710 OIL (NOT CRUDE)
271019 OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL

Volume (kg)Value (USD)
145,015,288 $ 192,387,198
55,501,253 $ 58,445,319
89,514,035 $ 133,941,879

2010

Value (USD)
3,942

Volume (kg)$Value (USD)
717

Volume (kg)
188,700,244
58,285,641
130,414,603

2011
Volume (kg)Value (USD)
2,340 $
20,4962014

Volume (kg)
12,5602015
Volume (kg)Value (USD)
31 $20,496

Volume (kg)
12,560

2012
Value (USD)

Value (USD)

2019
Volume (kg)Value (USD)

2020
Volume (kg)No trades reported in Comtrade as of 2/26/20 for 2018 through 2020

A1- 171

Value (USD)

Volume (kg)2013
Volume (kg) Value (USD)

2016
Value (USD)$302,959

2018
Commodity
Code

2011

Volume (kg)2017
Volume (kg) Value (USD)
247,216

Volume (kg)Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Imports to DPRK from China from UN Comtrade Database
Commodity Code 381121: Additives for
lubricating oils containing petroleum
oils/oils obtained from bituminous
materials
Volume (te)Value$/Tonne1996
19.80$31,679 $
1,600
2000
19.89
$38,189 $
1,920
2001
32.06
$59,099 $
1,843
2002
37.67
$59,600 $
1,582
2003
92.01
$113,917 $
1,238
2004
139.39$205,723 $
1,476
2005
190.60$334,970 $
1,757
2006
101.99$170,731 $
1,674
2007
90.08
$234,588 $
2,604
2008
338.24 $1,053,679 $
3,115
2009
210.01$593,900 $
2,828
2010
170.53$555,181 $
3,256
2011
284.98 $1,033,059 $
3,625
2012
391.46 $1,394,578 $
3,563
2013
485.53 $1,833,941 $
3,777
2014
402.74 $1,454,147 $
3,611
2015
217.93$890,418 $
4,086
2016
163.14$619,424 $
3,797
2017
245.68$601,659 $
2,449
2018
182.50$412,325 $
2,259
2019

-

$0

2020

-

$0

No trades reported in Comtrade
as of 2/26/20 for 2019 through2020

31 Assumes no KEDO oil remained in storage as of end-2005. KEDO suspended shipments of heavy oil
to the DPRK as of December, 2002 (see, for example, http://www.k edo.org/).
32 Source cited in note 30 lists no imports of oil products from the DPRK into China in the categories below
for the years 1995 to 2005 with the exception of 2002, as shown.
27101919
Other kerosene distillages
1,098 tonnes
27101999
Other lubricating oils, greases and other heavy oil
8,593 tonnes
and for the following years in a more aggregate categories "OIL (NOT CRUDE)" and "OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL &BITUM MINERAL ETC" (used in 2002), as shown.
(Category 271019 in 2007-2009; values for 2010-2017 from UN Comtrade database)

1997
236,478

1998
7,175

1999
19,1802000
19,935

2002
11,704

2003

2006

2007
0

2008
1.805

2009
-

2010
2.34

2011
12.56

2012
0

2014
-

2015
0

2016
247.216

2017
-

2018
-

2019
-

2020
- tonnes

A1- 172

2004

2005
tonnes2013- tonnesNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Exports to China from the DPRK of gaseous petroleum products were recorded as:Units: tonnes
Commodity
Code2711192711
Commodity
Code2711192711122711132711142711

Commodity
Code

2711

Product/Product GroupOTHER,LIQUEFIEDPETROLEUM,OTHER
GASES

1995
11,703

1996
10,450

1997
5,874

1998
4,100

1999
4,534

2000
4,315

2001
8,747

2002
8,558

2003
4,679

11,703

10,490

5,874

4,100

4,534

4,315

8,747

8,558

4,679

Product/Product GroupOTHER,LIQUEFIEDPROPANE, LIQUEFIEDBUTANES, LIQUEFIED
Ethylene,
propylene,
butylene,butadiene,liquefied
PETROLEUM,OTHER
GASES

2004
6,598

2005
3,844

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

549

4,118

5,230

3,148

2,908

2,940

4,311

6,598

4,393

4,118

5,230

3,148

2,908

2,940

4,311

Product/Product GroupPETROLEUM,OTHER
GASES

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3,089

2,963

3,405

4,352

224

-

-

-

-

A1- 173

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
33 Source cited in note 30 lists the following detail on imports of gaseous oil products into the DPRK from
China in the categories below (2010, 2011, and some data by gas from UN Comtrade statistics).
Units: Kilograms
Commodity
Code

Product/Product GroupPETROLEUM,OTHER
2711 GASES
271119OTHER,LIQUEFIED**
271113
BUTANES, LIQUEFIED
271111
NATURAL,LIQUEFIED
271112
PROPANE, LIQUEFIED
271129OTHER GASES,GASEOUS*

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

11,130
11,130-46,40046,400-149,800
17,400132,400-

215,850
13,850202,000-

232,335
21,550210,75530

354,365
55,707
298,658-

497,397
125,894
361,826
9,677-

Units: Kilograms
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2006
2007
2711 PETROLEUM,OTHER
756,070770,052
271119OTHER,LIQUEFIED**
327,030
418,950
271113
BUTANES, LIQUEFIED
423,940
351,102
271111
NATURAL,LIQUEFIED
271112
PROPANE, LIQUEFIED
100
Ethylene,
propylene,
butylene,butadiene,
271114liquefied
271129OTHER GASES,GASEOUS*
5,000* Petroleum gases and gaseous hydrocarbons nes, as gas**Petroleum gases & gaseous hydrocarbons nes, liquefied

2008
479,727
346,426
133,301

A1- 174

2009
543,001
461,022
81,9792010
663,704
510,685
147,019
6,000

2011
1,292,235
1,008,644
283,591

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Commodity
Code

Product/Product Group
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2711 PETROLEUM,OTHER
2,164,108
2,577,169
3,157,951
3,031,277
1,074,682
271119OTHER,LIQUEFIED**
1,334,415
1,381,990
1,706,780
1,697,510
484,610271113
BUTANES, LIQUEFIED
829,693
1,195,179
1,451,171
1,333,767
588,597
271111
NATURAL,LIQUEFIED
271112
PROPANE, LIQUEFIED
1,475
Ethylene,
propylene,
butylene,butadiene,
271114liquefied
271129OTHER GASES,GASEOUS***Petroleum gases & gaseous hydrocarbons nes, liquefied; No trades reported for 2019 in Comtrade as of 5/5/2020

34 Data from files downloaded from http://www.customs.go.jp/touk ei/download/index_d012_e.htm
yields the following summary of oil products exports from Japan to the DPRK in 2005:
Commodity
Code'271019520''271019590''271019600'

Product/Product Group(Probable)"SOLID OR SEMI-SOLID
LUBRICANT PREPN""Other Heavy Oils andPreparations"

OTHER LUBRICATING'271019900' OILS, OTH. HEAVY OILSSum of Petroleum Products Above

Quantity, kl

Quantity, kg

Value-Year(1000 Yen)

Implied value,
1000 yen/unit

16

14397

4484

0.311

78
0

74605
1328

19174
839

0.257
0.632

9

9131
99,461

1951

0.214

Total petroleum products exports from Japan to the DPRK in 2005 were a tiny fraction of those in 2000.

A1- 175

2017
1,765,312
741,550
1,023,762
00

2018
1,715,552
524,920
1,190,632
0
0

0
0

0
0

2019

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
35 Singapore oil trade statistics for 2005, 2008, and 2009 are as provided below (from United Nations "Comtrade" database, as
downloaded and provided by Jennifer Lee of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, 10/2010). In 2005, an industry source
suggested that there may have been approximately 25,000 tonnes of petroleum products shipped periodically,
perhaps every six week s or so, from Singapore to the DPRK. The product shipped was reported to belik ely "gas oil" for use in power generation, industry, and marine diesel engines. We assume that the imports fromSingapore listed below are diesel oil or similar fuels. 2010 data tak en directly from UN Comtrade database, 8/28/12.
Commodity Code271019"Petroleum oils & oils obt. from bituminous mins. (excl. crude) & preps. oth …"
Value ($
Quantity
Implied priceYear
thousand)(tonnes)($/ton)2005
905
952.04 $950.37
2008
42,004 112,733.46 $372.602009
101
43.12 $
2,340.84
2010
44
21.81 $
2,011.69
Most additional trades from Singapore (from 2011-on) are cataloged below (note 47), but one trade in 2017, listed atvalue of$103,195
is not included below, as the cost per k g seems extreme, probably indicating a reporting error.
36 For 2005 and on, includes quantities reported/estimated separately from China, the ROK, Russia, and Japan, but
without those estimated to have been received in 1996 from the Chinese
refinery near the border (note 14), as those exports, if they continue today, are thought to now be reflected in official
Chinese customs statistics (Nate Aden, personal communication).
37 A source familiar with the oil industry estimates that the DPRK in 2005 used "no more than 18 - 19 thousandbarrels [of crude oil and oil products] per day" on average. Given the considerable uncertainties in some of
the reported oil products imports to the DPRK (and a small portion of the DPRK's crude oil inputs), we havetak en the middle of this range as a target total for the overall oil supply to the DPRK.

A1- 176

60 k g, but listing aNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
38. Data from files downloaded from http://www.customs.go.jp/touk ei/download/index_d012_e.htm
yields the following summary of oil products exports from Japan to the DPRK in 2009, 2008, and 2007:
No exports from Japan to the DPRK in oil products categories are listed in statistics for 2010 or 2011.
Product/Product Group
Value-Year
Implied value,
Commodity
Code(Probable)
Quantity, kl
Quantity, kg(1000 Yen)
1000 yen/unit"SOLID OR SEMI-SOLID'271019520' LUBRICANT PREPN"
000"Other Heavy Oils and'271019590' Preparations"
12
12600
5250
0.417
'271019600'
0
320
446
1.394
'271019900' OTHER LUBRICATING000Sum of Petroleum Products Above
12,920"SOLID OR SEMI-SOLID'271019520' LUBRICANT PREPN"
5
5000
1734
0.347
"Other Heavy Oils and'271019590' Preparations"
47
48727
17322
0.355
'271019600'
0
160
216
1.350
'271019900' OTHER LUBRICATING000Sum of Petroleum Products Above
53,887'271019520' "SOLID OR SEMI-SOLID
1
1000
600
0.600
"Other Heavy Oils and'271019590' Preparations"
712
23145
7064
0.305
'271019600'
000'271019900' OTHER LUBRICATING
0
480
213
0.444
Sum of Petroleum Products Above
24,625

Year
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007

39. Based on data from GlobalSecurity.org, "Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Six-Party Talk s" (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk /6-party.htm)
The DPRK received
150,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil under the 6-Party Talk s agreement in 2007.
40

Dick K. Nanto and Emma Chanlett-Avery, "North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis" , US Congressional Research Service,
dated January 22, 2010, and available as http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32493.pdf, includes the following passage regarding Russian fuels trade with the DPRK:
Major Russian exports to the DPRK include mineral fuels, wood pulp, machinery, non-rail vehicles, iron and steel, and wood. Russian exports ofmineral fuels have been declining from a peak of $224.4 million in 2005 to $73.5 million in 2007 and $41.6 million in 2008.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
41 In "Russian ‘Power Politics’, North Korea and the Future of Northeast Asia" (In The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus), Leonid Petrov
dated on July 29, 2008, and available as http://www.japanfocus.org/-Leonid-Petrov/2835, includes the following passages:"...During 2004–2005, petroleum [products] trade between Russia and North Korea grew from $105 million to $172.3 million."and"The Maritime Province (Primorsky Krai) itself exports to North Korea more than $4 million worth of refined oil per year. The re are no oil fields in the Russian
Maritime Province and oil has to be obtained through a chain of federal bureaucratic structures from the oil -rich areas of Eastern Siberia. Instead of money,
the local governments agree to receive the labour of North Korean workers."
and"This year, Russia has already delivered 100,000 tons of fuel oil to the DPRK in two batches and, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei
Borodavkin, a top Russian envoy to the Six-Party Talks, will deliver another 100,000 tons by October 2008."
and"Recently, for the first time in the post-Soviet era, North Korea saw a major Russian investment. In the city of Pyeongseong the Russian auto plant KamAZ
opened its first assembly line, specialising in the production of medium-size trucks named “Taebaeksan-96”. Although less than 50 trucks were assembled in2007 this cooperation became an important milestone in the development of bilateral relations. While the project doesn’t viol ate United Nations sanctions on
North Korea, it shows Moscow’s drive to expand its influence in the country. Ironically, the more trucks assembled the heavier North Korea’s dependence on
imported fuel, engine oils and other petrochemical products. "The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 10/19/10, 8/23/12, and 6/8/18, and 2/27/20) includes theexports from Russia to the DPRK of oil products.

HS271011: Light oils and preparations(2710112 after 2011)
NetWeight
Cost per
Trade Value
(kg)
Tonne

Period2000
2005 $3,867,434
2006 $1,779,745
2007$837,987
2008$644,830
2009 $1,373,927
2010
$326
2011
$10,587
2012$49,028
2013 $3,501,125
20142015 $5,403,501
2016
2017
$321,813
2018 $18,282,618
2019
2020
Sum/Average, 2005 -2018 $36,072,921

8,704,467
2,879,099
1,101,248
460,5932,419,666
307
8,764
35,511
3,992,726

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

10,255,658$

410,020
22,092,724$$

52,360,783$

HS271019: 'Petroleum oils & oils obtained frombituminous minerals (other than crude) &preparations not elsewhere specified…" probably
diesel and heavy oils

444.30618.16760.941,400.00
567.82
1,061.89
1,208.01
1,380.64
876.88#DIV/0!
526.88#DIV/0!
784.87827.54688.93 $Trade Value

NetWeight (kg) Cost per Tonne$140,877,871$67,031,085$69,340,553$25,770,853$1,513,772$16,454,259$37,373,167$3,955,876$20,158,818$19,857,418$13,122,328$1,747,276$5,279,897$2,077,077

330,214,190
116,715,130
133,045,608
41,665,420
1,898,396
28,332,755
41,015,117
2,372,221
25,027,164
26,045,014
26,082,223
3,212,469
8,548,930
2,827,687

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

424,560,250

787,002,324$

A1- 178426.63574.31
521.18618.52797.40580.75911.201,667.58
805.48762.43503.11
543.90617.61734.55HS2710: 'Petroleum oils and oils obtained frombituminous minerals, other than crude;
preparations not elsewhere specified or
included....", aggregate category for petroleum
products
Trade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost per Tonne$1,621,861
6,862,811 $236.33$144,745,305
338,918,657 $
427.08$68,810,830
119,594,229 $575.37$70,178,540
134,146,856 $523.15$26,415,683
42,126,013 $627.06$2,887,699
4,318,062 $668.75$16,454,585
28,333,062 $580.76$37,383,754
41,023,881 $911.27$4,004,903
2,407,732 $
1,663.35$23,659,942
29,019,890$
815.30$19,857,418
26,045,014$
762.43$18,525,829
36,337,881$
509.82$1,747,276
3,212,469$
543.90$5,601,710
8,958,950$625.26$20,359,695
24,920,411$
816.99539.47 $ 460,633,169

839,363,107$

548.79

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
HS381121: Additives for lubricating oils
containing petroleum oils/oils obtained
from bituminous materials
NetWeight
Trade Value(kg)
Trade Quantity

HS 340319: Lubricating preparations containing
petroleum oils/oils obtained from bituminous
minerals (not for textile/fur treatment)

HS 3354: "Petroleum Bitumin, Petroleum Coke,and Bituminous Mixtures"

PeriodTrade Value
NetWeight (kg) Cost per Tonne
Trade Value
NetWeight (kg) Trade Quantity
2008$21,174579 $
36,569.95
2009$4,504411 $
10,958.64
2010$62,587
51,605 $
1,212.81
2011$8,000238
238$25,519207 $
123,280.19$7,471
1,952
1,952
2012 No trades reported in UN Comtrade$42,240
22,000 $1,920.00 This category is no longer available in
Statistics 20132012 through 2018
$143,244
65,795 $2,177.13 UN Comtrade as of 10/2018. Presumably
2014$14,950489$
30,572.60 it is now included in other categories, such
2015
0
#DIV/0! as 2713, 2714…
2016$15,771972$
16,225.31
2017
$
395
84 $
4,702.38
2018$
13,804204 $
67,666.67
20192020
No trades reported in Comtrade for 2019 ast of 5/5/2020

PeriodHS2711: Petroleum Gases and Other
Gaseous Hydrocarbons
NetWeight
Cost per
Trade Value
(kg)
Tonne

No significant imports to2008 the DPRK from Russia
recorded until 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$24,70335,2902015$722,542
1,470,454
2016 $1,191,951
2,962,664
2017
2018
2019
2020

$
$
$

$2,329,145

5,021,839$$1,202,636

2,249,621$

700.00 All "other" (271119)
491.37 Mostly "271114", no LPG
402.32 Mostly "other", not LPG (about
Mostly "other" and "271114", not463.80LPG (about
534.592.4%

propane).

14.4%

propane).

Mostly "other" and "271114", not
18.5%
LPG (about
No trades reported in Comtrade as of 5/5/2020

A1- 179

propane).

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
42 In CRS Report to Congress, U.S. Assistance to North Korea , by Mark E. Manyin and Mary Beth Nik itin, available as
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21834.pdf, and dated July 31, 2008,
included the statement:"North Korea has received a total of 330,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and 60,000 tons of fuel equivalent (i.e., steel products to renovate aging
power plants)."
Ambassador Chris Hill's testimony on July 31, 2008 described delivery of a total of
420,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil, out of a
total promised volume of 950,000 tonnes, as of that date (see http://www.ncnk .org/resources/publications/Amb_Hill_Testimony_SASC_July_08.pdf)
A further delivery of
50,000 tonnes was shipped from the US in late 2008(see http://www.nautilus.org/mailing-lists/napsnet/dr/2008/20081113.html).
Following from http://www.ick s.org/publication/pdf/2009-SPRING-SUMMER/5.pdf, "U.S. Assistance to North Korea", by Mark E. Manyin
and Mary Beth Nik itin, of the US Congressional Research Service, International Journal of Korean Studies · Vol. XIII, No. 1, pp. 85-105.
Table 2. Delivery of Heavy Fuel Oil to the DPRK,
July 2007 – December 2008
Shipment
Amount HFO
DateDonor Country
Delivered (MT)Jul-07
ROK
50,000
Sep-07
China
50,000
Nov-07
USA
46,000
Jan-08Russia50,000Mar-08USA
54,000
May-08Russia50,000Jul-08USA
34,000Aug-08USA
16,000
Nov-08USA
50,000
Dec-08Russia50,000TOTAL
450,000
Source: Compiled by the Congressional Research Service
43 Indian trade statistics record substantial flows of oil products to the DPRK in recent years. In some cases, these flows appear to be
hundreds of thousands of tonnes per year, with values in the hundreds of millions, and in one year on the order of a billion, dollars.
Given that some of these volumes are A) sufficiently large as to be on the same order as all k nown (or strongly suspected) oil andoil products imports from elsewhere, and B) placed overwhelmingly in product categories such as naptha (mostly used as an input
to chemicals manufacture) and other (unspecified) light oil products, that it, categories that do not necessarily correspond with major
DPRK oil requirements, it is clear that the data cannot be accepted on face value. Some analysts (Jennifer Lee, Petersen Institute,personal communications, 10/2010) suggest that it is possible that Indian statistics have inadvertently mis-categorized oil products
exported to the ROK as oil products exported to the DPRK. A summary of statistics related to oil exports from India to the DPRK
and ROK follows.

A1- 180

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Reported Oil Exports to DPRK from India, Quantity in Tonnes
Year
HS Code2003-2004 2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
27074000
4.3
27082000
60
2710111927101190
75234027100094
22500
35060
55000
26845027101920
10
40000
20
27101930
22500
27101950
27101960
27101990
30000
27122090
1227109900
29700
27129090
10271011 From UN Comtrade Database
271019 From UN Comtrade Database

Reported Oil Exports to ROK from India, Quantity in Tonnes
Year
HS Code2003-2004 2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
27074000
38,750.00
27079900
0.42
141427090000
29700
2710111985000
56484025920027101190
15750
88540
17063027082000
27100094
19482021943054000
11000027101111
17404027101920
27101930
27101950
27101980
27101990
27109900
27111400
27111900
27121010
27121090
27122010
27122090
27129010
27129090
27131100
27131200
27149090

30

80000

50

50

17500
10
63276038000

200553100305500
101316202029602008-2009
240,000.00

2009-2010
63,000.00

633130371500

2010

20

64400

1.67

5
246,800
39,9202008-2009
108,000.00

2009-2010
29,700.00

9706806574706189901,377,060

3127401,345,710

990
15000
96280
50
18299015000

80000
52696012,253.00
13,280.00
15
8
16

14
89.66

10
0.08
0.04
12

7.07

14
59
2.7
73

HS CodeProducts Included in Code27074000 NAPTHALENE
27082000 PITCH COKE
27101119 OTHER MOTOR SPIRIT
27101190 OTHER LIGHT OILS AND PREPARATIONS
27100094 P.O.L. PRODUCTS
27101920 AUIATION TURBINE FUEL (ATF)
27101930 HIGH SPEED DIESEL (HSD)
27101950 FUEL OIL
27101960 BASE OIL
27101990 OTHER PETROLEUM OILS AND OILS OBTAINE FROMBITUMINOUS MINERALS NES
27122090 OTHER PARAFFIN WAS CNTNG BY WT
27109900 OTHER WASTE OIL
27129090 OTHER PARAFFIN WAXES OBTAINED BY SYNTHESIS/OTHER PROCESS W/N COLOURED NES

129.3
19.6

76.55
80.2

0.29
103.3883.86

0.3

Data above (and first two rows of table below) from http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/ecntcomq.asp

A1- 181HS CodeProducts Included in Code27074000 NAPTHALENE
27079900 OTHR OIL & OIL PROCUCTS OF DISTILLATION OFHIGH TEMP COAL TAR ETC
27090000 PETROLEUM OILS & OILS OBTAINED FROM BITUMINOUS MINERALS CRUDE
27101119 OTHER MOTOR SPIRIT
27101190 OTHER LIGHT OILS AND PREPARATIONS
27082000 PITCH COKE
27100094 P.O.L. PRODUCTS
27101111 SPECIAL BOILING POINT MOTOR SPIRITS (OTHERTHAN BENZENE TOLUOL) WITH NOMIALBOILING POINT RANGE 55-1150C
27101920 AUIATION TURBINE FUEL (ATF)
27101930 HIGH SPEED DIESEL (HSD)
27101950 FUEL OIL
27101980 LUBRICATING OIL
27101990 OTHER PETROLEUM OILS AND OILS OBTAINE FROMBITUMINOUS MINERALS NES
27109900 OTHER WASTE OIL
27111400 LQFD ETHYLNE PROPYLENE BUTYLENE & BUTADENE
27111900 OTHR LQFD PETRLM GASES & GASEOUS HYDRCRBN
27121010 CRUDE PETROLEUM JELLY27121090 OTHER PETROLEUM JELLY27122010 CHLORONATED PARAFFIN WAX
27122090 OTHER PARAFFIN WAS CNTNG BY WT
27129010 MICRO-CRYSTALLINE PETROLEUM WAS
27129090 OTHER PARAFFIN WAXES OBTAINED BY SYNTHESIS/OTHER PROCESS W/N COLOURED NES
27131100 PETROLEUM COKE NOT CALCINED
27131200 PETROLEUM COKE CALCINED
27149090 OTHER ASPHALTITES & ASPHALTIC ROCKSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Total value of HS 27 Imports to ROK or DPRK from India, $$ thousand
Year
Reported by
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-20092009-2010
India to
DPRK$
5,610 $
30,800 $$65,400 $777,850 $844,930 $
330,120
India to ROK $41,050 $ 103,610 $
496,190 $
869,070 $
733,430 $2,170,610 $
1,526,960
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
ROK from
India (UN)$281,159$434,860$835,148$1,754,345$2,592,060$3,944,862$2,289,798
ROK from
India (KITA)$ 281,159 $ 434,860 $
835,148 $1,754,345 $ 2,592,060 $
3,944,862 $
2,289,798 $2010

2,115,057"UN" data from United Nations Comtrade System for Exports from India to the ROK, as reported by the ROK.
"KITA" data from Korea International Trade Association, http://global.k ita.net/.
Note that in each year, the value of HS 27 products reported exported by India to both Koreas combined is much less thanthe value of HS 27 products reported imported from India by the ROK alone.
44 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 10/19/10, 8/23/12, and 8/2018) includes thefollowing statistics on exports from the DPRK to Russia of oil products (none reported in 2011):

PeriodCode
Trade Value NetWeight (kg) Trade Quantity
2006
271019$7,646
10,645
10,6452008
271019$9,433
3,697
3,697
2010
271019$10,977
5,940
5,940
2011
271019$00
2012271019$1
1
1
2013271019$3,624947
947
2014
271019$00
2015271019$00
2016271019$00
2017271019$532
117
117
2018 No exports reported for 2018 in Comtrade as of 3/2/2020

45 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 2/10/11 and 8/28/12) includes the following
statistics on exports to the DPRK from Malaysia of oil products in 2008 through 2011 (none reported in 2010 or 2011):

Period
2008
2009
2009

Code
271011271019271011

Implied cost per
ton
200 $
390.003,718,477 $
383.86
1,082,255 $392.19Trade Value NetWeight (kg)78
$1,427,390$424,445

A1- 182

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
46 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 2/10/11 and 28/28/2012) includes the following
statistics on exports to the DPRK from the Netherlands (and some imports to the Netherlands from the DPRK, as mark ed) of oil products in recent years:
PeriodCode

Trade Value NetWeight (kg)Trade Quantity

Code Definition

2005
271019$9,949394
394 petroleum oils except light oil/waste oils
2007
271019$46,676
11,35011,350 petroleum oils except light oil/waste oils
2008
271019 $2,478,562
5,245,516
5,245,516 petroleum oils except light oil/waste oils
2007
340319$5,4912
2 Lubricating oil etc containing <70% petroleum oil nes
2009271019$670,934
458,692
458,692 petroleum oils except light oil/waste oils
2010
271019 $73,129,414
115,934,196
115,934,196 petroleum oils except light oil/waste oils
* This reported trade is sufficiently large that we assume that it is mis-reported, perhaps confused with a trade with the ROK,
which reported exports of over a billion dollars worth of fuel in this category to the Netherlands in 2010.
47 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/28/2012 and 6/6/2018) includes the following
statistics on trade flows of oil products between the DPRK and a number of countries not included in the notes above.
We omit trade flows of less than 1 ton of product (or the equivalent in value) from this summary. Note that some of the quantities shown
are sufficiently high as to be not credible as actual transactions. We believe that those listings are probably recording errors, notactual transactions involving the DPRK, and they are mark ed with yellow highlights..

A1- 183

Exports to Netherlands
Exports to Netherlands*

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Period
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010

Import to the
DPRK/
Export From
the DPRK
Côte d'Ivoire
ImportGermany
ImportGreeceImportIndia
ImportIndia
Import
Italy
ImportRomania
Import
Spain
ImportTunisia
ImportTurkeyImportAustralia
ExportCountry

Australia
Bulgaria
PakistanPeru
Tunisia
TurkeyYemen
Bulgaria
Côte d'Ivoire
Germany
Greece
India
India
Italy
TurkeyBulgaria
Mozambique
Nepal
Thailand
UgandaCanadaCôte d'Ivoire
Egypt
India
India
Italy
TurkeyBenin
BrazilExportExportExportExportExportExportExportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportExportExportExportExportExportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportExportExport2010

Code

Trade Value

NetWeight (kg) Implied cost/te
17,083
10,600149,800
799,726,016
22,525,000
25,114,640
107,590
27,473,393
43,922
299,396
28,825

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

271019 $271019 $271019 $271011 $
271019 $271011 $
271019 $271011 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $15,651
29,000173,412753,555,357
18,370,926
26,444,721
108,400
23,229,112
62,205
176,797
29,267271091 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271011 $
271019 $271011 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271011 $
271019 $271011 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $271091 - "Waste oils containing
119,074 N/A#VALUE!
PCBs, PCTs, PBBs…"
47,6359,657 $
4,932.69
58,52284,000 $696.6918,268,432
36,525,068 $
500.16
5,611,559
4,979,340 $
1,126.97
48,572,265
51,186,085 $
948.93
13,651
12,440 $1,097.35
1,988
2,694 $
737.945,639
1,850 $
3,048.11
19,0005,200 $
3,653.85
114,498
186,151 $615.08
174,656,196
301,400,000 $579.4841,933,181
64,400,000 $
651.14
16,150,255
27,587,298 $
585.42
33,12726,080 $1,270.21
34,086
18,531 $
1,839.40
51,97035,530 $1,462.71
597,702408,626 $
1,462.71
93,65664,029 $1,462.71
10,09930,228 $334.0912,75911,446 $1,114.71
21,703
14,920 $1,454.62
205,384,031
315,000,000 $652.01
163,152,578
246,800,432 $661.0744,501,319
39,920,472 $
1,114.75
19,464,875
27,574,309 $
705.91
94,807
230,700 $410.95
22,697940,982 $24.12
29,023,298
47,292,757 $
613.69271099916.172,735.85
1,157.62
942.27815.581,052.96
1,007.53
845.51
1,416.26
590.51
1,015.33

271099 = Waste oils other than those containing
polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)/polychlorinated terphenyls
96.69 (PCTs)/polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs)$
271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $642
9,942
376,515
4,623,240
7,432

6,640
8,253
446,291
4,210,544
29,585$$$$$

1,204.65
843.65
1,098.01
251.21

2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012

Chile
ExportMexicoExportNiger
Export
Sri Lanka
ExportUgandaExportUnited Rep.
of Tanzania
ExportGreeceImportIndia
ImportIndia
ImportSouth Africa
ImportTurkeyImportGuyanaExportIndia
ExportIndonesia
ExportMexicoExportNiger
ExportPakistan
ExportRwandaExportEcuador
ImportGuyanaImport271019 $271019 $271011 $
271019 $271011 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $271011 $
271019 $271019 $271019 $271019 $271019271019830,261
54,65339,9191,217
29,65232,85022,1353,476,764
2,572,466
10,86231,308
189,313
10,712$386,094$52,480

1,108,208 $
24,384 $10,000 $1,426 $
15,000 $15,262 $3,884 $
2,620,000 $
2,001,984 $
7,957 $
6,709 $
245,000 $25,900 $141,850 $
10,670 $749.192,241.35
3,991.90
853.44
1,976.80
2,152.40
5,699.02
1,327.01
1,284.96
1,365.09
4,666.57
772.71413.592,721.85
4,918.46

2012

Mozambique Import

271019$44,580

23,380

2010
2010
2010
2010

Notes

A1- 184$

1,906.76

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Period
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012

Country

RwandaIndia
Colombia
Germany
Italy
PakistanPapua New
2012
Guinea2012
Singapore
2012
Turkey2013 Benin2013 Guyana
2013 Kenya
2013 Kyrgyzstan
2013 Mauritania
2013 Niger
2013 Niger
2013 Suriname
Burkina2013
Faso2013 Germany
2013 Guinea
2013 Netherlands
2013 Pakistan
2013 Rwanda
2013 India
2013 Singapore
2013 Thailand
2013 Turkey
2014 Benin
2014 Guyana
2014 Niger
2014 Nigeria
2014 Suriname2014 Brazil
2014 Germany
2014 Guinea
2014 Pakistan
2014 India
2014 India
2014 Singapore
2014 Thailand
United Arab2014
Emirates
United Arab2014
Emirates2014 Turkey
2014 Uganda
United Rep.
2014
of Tanzania
2015 Brazil
2015 Benin
2015 Honduras2015 Malaysia
2015 Pakistan
2015 India
2015 Singapore
2015 Turkey
2015 Turkey
2015 Uganda
Burkina2015
Faso2015 Philippines

Import fromthe DPRK/
Export to the
DPRK
ImportExportImportExportExportImportCode

Trade Value

NetWeight (kg) Implied cost/te

271019271019271019271019271019271019$4,527$30,622,183$51,528$68,119$46,276$201,873

3,980 $
36,697,000 $
15,498 $10,861 $
2,820 $
255,000 $Import271019$86,474

ExportExportImportImportImportImportImportImportExportImport271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019$36,893$33,421$882,477$57,188$8,144$28,754$52,429$83,720$44,783$36,287$
16,620 $32,068 $
1,500,000 $
13,084 $6,440 $
18,700 $61,800 $73,115 $39,676 $12,501 $Import271019$7,088,487

6,134,187

ExportImportImportImportImportExportExportImportExportImportImportImportImportImportImportExportImportImportImportExportExportImport271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019$152,321$5,172,529$123,779,987$134,539$11,170$68,243,094$451,543$2,588$4,706,381$4,989,453$27,197$38,528$38,996$20,208$104,411$251,093$14,300$393,485$132,102$145$251,432$7,709

Export271019$38,465

69,980Re-Export

271019$38,465

69,980

ExportImport271019271019

Import

1,137.44
834.46
3,324.82
6,271.89
16,409.93
791.66Weight not provided by Comtrade, estimated roughly based

45,351$
16,650 $6,061,914 $
128,074,331 $
180,000 $10,920 $68,139,000 $
170,490 $
1,615 $
4,550,230 $
7,500,000 $
5,252 $
34,040 $21,929 $6,285 $
75,342 $30,247 $18,182 $373,000 $84,000 $1,000 $
100,980 $4,335 $

1,906.76 on guess of cost of ~$1900/te
2,219.80
1,042.19
588.324,370.83
1,264.60
1,537.65
848.37
1,145.05
1,128.72
2,902.73
1,155.57
9,148.41
853.28966.47747.44
1,022.89
1,001.53
2,648.50
1,602.48
1,034.32
665.26
5,178.41
1,131.84
1,778.28
3,215.27
1,385.83
8,301.42
786.49
1,054.92
1,572.64
145.002,489.92
1,778.32$

549.66$4,760,967$7,329,875$
4,753,271 $
7,381,975 $

549.661,001.62
992.94271019$3,900,827

4,200,000

ImportImportImportExportImportImportExportImportExportImport271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019$39,600$9,272,598$32,069$53,110$145,863$864,167$491,422$13,054,833$4,632,530$618,469$
37,540 $15,335,880 $
1,424 $
17,964 $132,000 $1,288,000 $
127,070 $
26,903,555 $
8,092,310 $
924,364 $Import271019$33,395,798

47,041,362

Import271019$1,924,222$
6,071,305 $A1- 185

Notes

928.77
1,054.87
604.6322,520.37
2,956.47
1,105.02
670.94
3,867.33
485.25572.46
669.08709.92316.94

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
2016 Philippines
2016 Fiji
Other Asia,2016
nes2016 Nepal
2016 Niger
2016 Pakistan
2016 India
2016 India
2016 Singapore
2016 Turkey
2016 Turkey
Burkina2016
Faso2017 Import2017 Import2017 Import2017 Import2017 Export
2012 Import2012 Import2012 Import2012 Import2013 Import2013 Import2013 Import2013 Export
2014 Import2014 Export
2015 Import2015 Export
2015 Export
2016 Import2016 Import2016 Export
2016 Export2017 Export2017 Export
2018 Import2018 Export
2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Export
2018 Re-Export
2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Export
2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import2018 Import
2019 Import
2019 Import
2019 Import

ImportImport271019271019$11,965,872$41,621

Export271019$67,141

ImportExportImportImportExportExportImportExport271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019$44,230$2,107$321,330$24,993$6,331$146,644$1,397,450$430,086$
23,948 $2,523 $
434,000 $13,000 $8,000 $
78,900 $3,000,000 $1,010,199 $Import271019$7,573,630

11,732,475

271019$5,682289,818271019271019271019271019271012271012$64,131$736,674$418,806$18,239$50,533,746$7,573,361$
82,098 $1,242,000 $689,000 $30,962 $130,986,938 $
6,551,038 $

271012$326,430

289,170271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271012271019271019$1,123,900$3,153,389$3,302,030$78,296$16,464$23,215$104,448$8,736,477$45,328,837$750,683$3,856,201$45,248$238$323,306$16,493,194$613,957$48,068$491,565$67,240$26,693

Solomon
Isds
EcuadorPakistan
India
TurkeyBangladeshIndonesia
Papua New
GuineaTurkeyBangladeshIndonesia
PakistanSouth Africa
Sri Lanka
South Africa
Fiji
MexicoSouth Africa
FijiPakistan
India
South Africa
India
South Africa
PakistanSouth Africa
GuyanaSuriname
Solomon
Isds
Benin
Benin
Benin
Saudi Arabia
Burkina
Faso
Brunei
Darussalam
Fiji
Ghana
GreeceNicaragua
PakistanSouth Africa
ZambiaArmenia
Pakistan
Zambia40,815,208 $
28,849 $31,000$293.17
1,442.72
2,165.84
1,846.92
835.12740.391,922.54
791.381,858.61
465.82425.74645.5319.61
781.15593.14607.85589.08385.791,156.06 271012 = "Petroleum Spirit for Motor Vehicles-- LEGACY NON-WCO CODE"$
995,615 $
8,289,925 $
2,817,464 $
99,000 $74,986 $18,220 $95,578 $
8,233,236 $
45,712,940 $
757,044 $
4,772,526 $
56,000 $526 $504,879 $
34,947,000 $
2,727,188 $89,000 $2,171,864 $
30,303 $14,094 $1,128.85 Quantity is a rough estimate based on cost
1,128.85
380.391,171.99
790.87219.56
1,274.15
1,092.80
1,061.12
991.60991.60808.00 Quantity is a rough estimate based on cost
808.00452.47640.36471.95225.12540.09226.33
2,218.92
1,893.93
874.25636.77553.92553.92
13,533.83

271019$10,491

271019271019271019271019$2,548,551$238,478$238,478$3,60012,000$4,002,340 $
430,527 $430,527 $266 $271019$77,635

109,641

271019$7,932528

271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019271019$67,354$10,979$4,493$1,501$377,136$81,462$41,229$2,232$1,301,620$186,910$

708.08$31,408 $16,180 $5,466 $
262 $
221,000 $15,300 $39,620 $720 $1,694,000 $
198,430 $15,022.73
2,144.49
678.55821.995,729.01
1,706.50
5,324.31
1,040.61
3,100.00
768.37941.94A1- 186

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Summary of above, by product, import/export, and year, excluding waste oil shipments and highlighted trades that(highlighted in yellow) that are lik ely included in Comtrade statistics as a result of erroneous reporting.

Period
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020

Import to the
DPRK/
Export From
the DPRK
ImportImportExportImportImportExportImportImportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportImportImportExportExportCode

Trade Value

NetWeight (kg)

NetWeight (te)271011 $ 49,673,833
271019 $565,465271019 $ 72,601,331
271011 $ 16,150,255
271019 $174,252
271019 $787,513271011 $ 19,464,875
271019 $ 44,630,588
271019 $ 5,870,087
271011 $
69,571271019 $88,720271011 $ 2,572,466
271019 $ 3,741,094
271012 $271019 $ 30,806,892
271012 $ 9,023,691
271019 $827,556271012 $16,464271019 $ 73,598,122
271012 $ 6,533,715
271019 $ 13,555,724
271012 $104,448271019 $ 5,302,102
271012 $23,215271019 $ 16,997,091
271012 $ 46,079,520
271019 $ 5,177,062
271012 $ 8,736,477
271019 $ 59,347,619
271012 $323,544271019 $652,309271012 $ 3,901,449
271019 $ 21,369,126
271012 $ 17,107,151
271019 $18,239271012271019 $ 1,225,293
271012 $491,565271019 $242,971271012 $48,068271019 $ 3,316,702
271012271019271012271019 $ 1,490,762
27101227101927101227101952,588,033
628,391
92,825,415
27,587,298
221,975
556,944
27,574,309
40,177,538
6,743,863
25,00041,0722,001,984
2,909,450

52,588628
92,82527,587222
557
27,57440,178
6,744
25
41
2,002
2,909
36,7597,836
496
75
72,916
11,206
14,073
96
4,955
18
19,704
46,4708,237
8,233
97,735
505
1,131
4,829
56,04737,674
31
2,303
2,172
436
89
4,492
1,893

36,759,369
7,835,823
495,729
74,986
72,916,046
11,206,389
14,072,661
95,578
4,955,478
18,22019,704,340
46,469,984
8,237,344
8,233,236
97,735,430
505,405
1,130,622
4,828,526
56,047,480
37,674,188
30,9622,302,916
2,171,864
435,993
89,0004,492,414

1,893,150

A1- 187

Implied cost/te
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$

944.58899.86782.13585.42785.01
1,413.99
705.91
1,110.83
870.432,782.84
2,160.11
1,284.96
1,285.84#DIV/0!
838.07
1,151.59
1,669.37
219.56
1,009.35
583.03963.27
1,092.80
1,069.95
1,274.15
862.61
991.60628.491,061.12
607.23640.17576.95808.00381.27454.08589.08#DIV/0!
532.06226.33557.28540.09738.29$787.45

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
48 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/28/2012, 6/8/18, and 2/27/20) includes
the following statistics on trade flows of gaseous oil products (HS 2711 and related) between the DPRK and a number of countries
not included in the notes above. The following summarizes significant trades (>1000 te) since 1988 (>1 te from 2008 on).
Note that it seems lik ely that the most of the reports of trades in HS 271111, which is Liquefied Natural Gas, have been reported in error,
as the DPRK has not traditionally had infrastructure to use gas. The trades highlighted in yellow below are assumed tohave been reported in error (for example, should have been indicated as trades to the ROK).

PeriodCountry

1990
1991
1992
1994
1996
2000
2002
2003
2006

ThailandThailandThailandBrazilThailand
Qatar
ThailandThailand
Algeria
Trinidad and2009
Tobago2010
Egypt
Trinidad and2011
TobagoTrinidad and2012
Tobago2015
Qatar2008 France
2010 Spain2012 Brazil
2012 Uganda
2013 Bahamas2013 Brazil
Brunei
2013
Darussalam
2013 India
2013 Thailand
2014 Bahamas
2014 Brazil
2014 France
2015 Bahamas
2015 Brazil
Brunei2015
Darussalam
2015 France
2015 Qatar
2016 Brazil
2017 Honduras
Brunei2018
Darussalam
United2018
Kingdom

Import to the
DPRK/
Export From
the DPRK
ImportImportImportExportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportExportExportExportExportExportExportExportExportImportExportExportExportExportExportExportExportImportExportExport271111 $
271111 $
271111 $
271112 $271111 $
271111 $
271112 $271112 $271111 $

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

240.37
195.38159.14150.86200.62250.79187.23371.26
7,362.70$
271111 $18,165,475
59,974,580

58,625,000
317,610,000$$

309.86188.83271111$14,536,477

17,948,980$

809.88271111$52,953,923

308,639,340

271111
2711
2711
2711
2711
2711
2711

$4,264,561$10,314$17,044$126,033$18,400$281,126$190,968$
10,529,792 $
2,700 $
6,381 $
40,408 $
6,105 $
145,742 $
61,514 $171.57405.003,820.00
2,671.05
3,119.01
3,013.92
1,928.93
3,104.46

2711$31,906

2711
2711
2711
2711
2711
2711
2711

$12,843$2,147,379$52,841$236,392$37,412$87,576$202,706

2711$17,904

2711
2711
2711
2713

$31,585$4,264,561$45,892$5,949271111

ExportExportExport9,600$
3,800 $
2,074,762 $
27,397 $74,882 $13,769 $49,488 $70,949 $9,088$
13,388 $
10,529,792 $
15,084 $1,303 $

3,323.54
3,379.74
1,035.00
1,928.71
3,156.86
2,717.12
1,769.64
2,857.07
1,970.07
2,359.20
405.003,042.43
4,565.62$16,635

9,800$30,652

20,544271129$5,551

2711

913

253

$

3,608.70

2711

125

35 $

3,571.43

271113913

253

271129125

35 $271113

ExportImplied cost/te

33,528,035
84,684,250
35,652,074
19,904,776
29,767,371
131,346,312
11,459,236
12,315,050
3,066,263

ExportExportNetWeight (kg)8,059,222
16,545,202
5,673,827
3,002,745
5,971,960
32,939,788
2,145,546
4,572,091
22,575,964

271113

Bosnia2019
Herzegovina
2019 Estonia

2019 Estonia

Trade Value

Export2018 Estonia

Bosnia2019
Herzegovina

Code

A1- 188

$

1,697.45$

1,492.02

1,505 $

3,688.37$

3,608.70 Butanes
3,571.43 Gases other than natural gas

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
49 The United Nations "Comtrade" database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx, accessed 8/28/2012 and on several later dates) includes
the following statistics on trade flows of crude oil (HS 2709) between the DPRK and a number of countries
not included in the notes above. The following summarizes significant trades (>1000 te) since 1988. Note that many ofthese trades, particularly reported oil exports to the DPRK from Middle Eastern or African countries since the mid-1990s,
seem either sufficiently high or otherwise suspect as to be not credible, in our view. That is, they probably represent
reporting errors, possibly oil imported by the ROK that was mis-cataloged as going to the DPRK. The trades that
we consider unlikely to have actually occurred, and have thus discounted for the purposes of this analysis, arehighlighted in yellow below.

PeriodCountry

1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002

2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009

Algeria
Gabon
Gabon
Nigeria
Gabon
Nigeria
Nigeria
Algeria
Qatar
RussianFederation
ThailandBrazilEcuador
Qatar
RussianFederation
Thailand
Gabon
Qatar
Qatar
Yemen
Congo
Brazil
Qatar
Qatar

2015

Poland

2002
2002
2004
2004
2004
2004

Import to the
DPRK/
Export From
the DPRK
ImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportImportCode

Trade Value
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709$
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709$
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709 $
2709

NetWeight (kg) Implied cost/te

Notes

12,210,181
16,182,800
14,432,382
25,093,372
36,890,878
31,640,873
25,758,277
9,315,889
5,992,096

70,198,872
132,226
110,301,187
266,299,008
269,103,625
129,960
143,273
63,244,973
33,584,000

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

19,460,090
6,860,529
30,868,612
21,512,613
34,411,572

124,959,000
39,615,848
141,078,726
109,186,687
140,089,000

$
$
$
$
$

155.73173.18218.80 Probably actually to ROK
197.03 Probably actually to ROK
245.64 Probably actually to ROK

15,40020,587,059
61,537,849
171,197,260
132,437,967
215,922,394
214,163,318
40
27,050,318
118,445,515

56,00096,553,280
257,261,594
848,771,741
304,913,000
450,048,804
508,365,254
80
76,602,135
234,133,811

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

275.00213.22239.20 Nearly identical trade reported by/to ROK
201.70 Probably actually to ROK
434.35 Probably actually to ROK
479.78 Probably actually to ROK
421.28 Quantity not credible
500.00353.13 Probably actually to ROK
505.89 Probably actually to ROK$21,500

230

Import$
Qatar
Import2709$3,357,875
13,106,550 $Russian
2017
2709$76,272
164,965
Federation
Import$
No 2018 trades in this category reported in Comtrade statistics as of 3/2/2020
2016

A1- 189173.94
122,387.43 Mismatch between value and volume
130.8594.23 Probably actually to ROK
137.09 Probably actually to ROK
243,466.24 Mismatch between value and volume
179,784.59 Mismatch between value and volume
147.30178.42 Probably actually to ROK

Cost per tonne doesn't make sense, so assumed
to be 230 tonnes, not kg (but a small trade93,478.26 anyway)
256.20462.35Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
50 The following summarizes UN Comtrade statistics for imports into and exports from the DPRK from and to countries other than China(for China, see Note 30, above) of non-energy petroleum-based commodities in HS codes 2712 through 2715.
These imports and exports are largely modest in scale.
Units: k g
Commodity
Code

Product/
Product
Group
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Imports into the DPRK

Exports from the DPRK

2712

2713

2714

2715

2712

PETROLEUM
JELLY; WAXESPETROLEUM
COKE,
RESIDUES2713

BITMN,ASPHLT;TAR SAND

BITUMEN,TAR
RELATEDPETROLEUM
JELLY; WAXES

2714

PETROLEUM COKE, BITMN,ASPHLT;TARESIDUESR SAND

27,0006,999,898

3,000,000
3,548,000
5,075,949
1,003,000
4,409,000

102,000
1,999,875

89,00018,00017,50016,01016,18618,00082,25021,427 28,331,620
21,50016,000

531
5,000
5,000

0
11,00027,38739,4007,184,528
63,1400080,398

0
0
0
0
0
2,100
0
0
0

15,00026

1,849,937

11,6705,000
60,272
5,000
29,20647,7001,660
6,600
31,9205,703
000BITUMEN,TAR
RELATED
61,69975,37544,000149,000
39,53165,937
8,375
3,937

2715

145
0
1,952
316
1,437
400
0
0
0
0
0
0

497,324
268,6242,060,000
176,601
34,93752,000151,359
357,282
173,750
37,07931,000547,150
185,875
50,920151,440
76,30478,742
38,224230,020
201,320
112,15021250
127,67400

A1- 190

11,742,000
108,000

660,000
5,500

58,26924,005,000

300,000069

05,451,51100000429,091
0
0

46

2,000
902,143
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
28,00042
02,873,00562000 0= None reported as of 2/26/20
0 0= None reported as of 5/1/20
0Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
51 We have received a report that in recent years the refinery at Sonbong on the DPRK East Coast has been operating occasionally,
converting crude oil imported from Russia into refined products, and exporting some refined products, primarily to China and Russia. We
consider this report plausible, as it would help to provide a rationale for the continued operation, albeit at low capacity factors, of theoil-fired power plant at Sonbong (see Note 15 on the "ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN 1996 THROUGH 2010"page), but since, as yet, we have no quantitative information regarding how much the plant might be running, we are obliged to speculate.
As neither exports of crude oil from Russia nor imports of refined products, in siginficant quantity, to Russia or China appear in the official
trade statistics, we assume that these trades are unofficial, and relatively small. We therefore assume that, for 2010, the Sonbong refinery(the Sungri Chemical Factory) operated sufficiently to process
60,000 tonnes of Russian crude oil, which is consistent
with a capacity factor of about 3%, somewhat less than we are assuming the Sonbong oil-fired electricity plant operates. We are
currently seek ing more information, but for now the above assumptions should be considered highly speculative.
In addition, we assume that
10,000 tonnes of diesel and
20,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil produced by the plant
were exported, unofficially from this plant to China and/or Russia, though this is also a highly speculative assumption.
For 2014 through 2020, we assume that the Sonbong plant did not run at all.
52 As detailed imports statistics from China for 2012 on are not yet available to us, estimates for the individual products diesel, heavy fuel oil, k erosene,
and others (but not gasoline) for 2014 through 2017 were developed by assuming that the fractions of indivdiual products within the overall 271019
category were similar to those reported by China for 2011.
53 A Reuters article in 2017 ("Russia says its oil supplies to North Korea are negligible", by Denis Pinchuk , dated September 5, 2017, and available
as https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-northk orea/russia-says-its-oil-supplies-to-north-k orea-are-negligible-idUSKCN1BG13N, quotes
Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying "We have supplies of 40,000 tonnes of oil and oil products to North Korea a quarter", which would
imply about
160,000 tonnes per year. This is close to the lower end of the range of oil exports from Russia to the DPRK, as
estimated by other analysts.
54 In the report "The Rise of Phantom Traders: Russian Oil Exports to North Korea", dated July 2018, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies estimates,
based on track ing customs transactions between the Russian firm Independent Petroleum Company (IPC) and three North Korean business
entities resulted in refined oil product sales to the DPRK in the years 2015 through 2017 as follows(document available as http://en.asaninst.org/wp-content/themes/twentythirteen/action/dl.php?id=45032):"Table [from page 27 of Asan Institute Report]: IPC oil export to North Korea"
Tons of Oil

2015
Land
42,026
Sea
150,800
Total
192,825
Implied Cost per Tonne

2016
88,066
258,743
346,8102017
18,61064,634
83,2442015
465.99436.28442.762016
360.44317.15328.142017
439.37475.60467.50

Land
Sea
Total

$
$
$

$
$
$

$
$
$

Revenue
Total(USD)
148,702 Land
474,177 Sea
622,878 Total

$
$
$

2015
19,583,733
65,791,118
85,374,851

2016$ 31,742,448$ 82,061,148$ 113,803,596

$
$
$

2017
8,176,724
30,740,194
38,916,918

Total$ 59,502,905$ 178,592,460$ 238,095,365

Average 20152017$
400.15$376.64$382.25

These figures are reasonably consistent with the estimates offered in both the references cited above (53) and below (55). We therefore assume that the Asan
Institute estimates apply as the total amount of oil exported "off book s" from Russia to the DPRK in 2015 through 2017, and further estimate that
90% of the oil products in these shipments were diesel fuel, with the other
10% being gasoline, based roughly on the pattern of
on-book s trades in the two products from 2005 through 2017 (see note 41, above). We further assume that this patternof trade was established prior to 2014, but that in 2014 imports from Russia by this mode were a bit lower, at
180,000 total tonnes, withdiesel and gasoline (or similar products) sold in approximately the same proportions as assumed for 2015 through 2018.
We assume that deliveries of oil to the DPRK via this route in 2018 were100% of those reported in 2017, and that similarly, deliveries in2019 were100% of reported 2017 deliveries. For 2020, as a result of oil trading ships being idled by COVID-19 movement restrictions for atleast a large part of the year, we assume that imports via this route will be about
30% of 2017 levels.

A1- 191

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
55 A North Korean émigré has been quoted in various publications as estimating that Russia exported 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of oil products annually inrecent years to the DPRK via dealers based in Singapore (",,,Ri Jong Ho, a former official in North Korea’s Office 39, supplied in a recent interview with Kyodo News.."
See, for example, Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein (2017), "North Korea’s ICBM-test, Byungjin and the economic logic", dated, July 4th, 2017,and available as http://www.nk econwatch.com/category/energy/oil/.
56 A 2018 article in NK Economy Watch, "Chinese oil exports to N Korea increased after KJU’s third visit to China", dated July 19th, 2018, by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
includes the following passage: "China also dramatically increased oil shipments to the North. A source in Beijing said it nearly doubled crude oil supplies to theNorth through pipelines from Dandong since Kim’s recent visits. 'Some 30,000 to 40,000 tons of oil is enough in the summer to maintain thelowest possible flow of oil in the pipelines to ensure that they don’t clog, and about 80,000 tons in winter,” the source added.
“Though it’s summer now China has recently increased flow to the winter level.” Original source, "China Doubles Oil Shipments to N.Korea After Kim’s Visit",
Original Source, Lee Kil-seong and Kim Myong-song, Chosun Ilbo, 2018-07-19.
Assuming that this physical reason for China to maintain minimum flows through the pipeline is correct (and we have heard this explanation elsewhere),
One can estimate a minimum flow through the pipeline in a "normal" year by assuming
35,000 tonnes per month over a7-month (April-October) "summer" season of warmer months, with a corresponding average of
80,000 tonnes per month over the remainderof the year, which would yield an average of
645,000 tonnes of crude oil annually. We assume crude imports via pipeline at this rate from 2015
through 2017, with 2018 imports lik ely, based on the above, to be at least somewhat higher, assuming two months of higher flows in the summer as reported above,for a total of
715,000 tonnes of crude oil annually in 2018.
We assume that inputs of crude oil by pipeline from China were the same in 2019 as assumed for 2018. For 2020 we assume that in China's desire to help
the DPRK manage the coronavirus pandemic (see, for example, BBC News (2020), "Coronavirus: China offers to help North Korea fight pandemic",
dated 9 May 2020, and available as https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52597749), it provides more oil by pipeline to the DPRK. We thus assume
that the flow through the pipeline in 2020 will be
750,000 tonnes of crude oil, about 5 percent higher than in 2018.

A1- 192

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
A 2013 article "China’s Aid to North Korea— Centered on the China-North Korea Oil Pipeline", by Yuk ihiro Hotta, dated November, 2013, andavailable as http://www2.jiia.or.jp/en/pdf/digital_library/k orean_peninsula/160331_Yuk ihiro_Hotta_.pdf, including an excellent description of the infrastructurethat supports the China-DPRK pipeline that supplies oil to the Ponghwa Chemical Factory outside Sinuiju in the DPRK. The oil for this short (30 k m)
pipeline is moved by train from the Daqing oilfields, lik ely in heated tank cars, to a terminal in the village of Xing Guang Cun outside Dandong.
This implies a rail journey of well over 700 k ilometers. From Dandong,
crude oil is unloaded into the pipeline, and travels through the pipeline via a "Yalu River Oil Transportation Station" and "the valve room in Tajido on
the North Korean side". Due to the paraffin content of the Daqing oil, the crude oil must be heated to a minimum of 28 C, and the oil solidifies at 24 C.
The author also notes "However, the heat of the pipeline is easily lost because on the North Korean side which accounts for two-thirds of its length,
it is buried to a very shallow depth or passes beneath rice fields". As a conseqence there are maximum periods during which flow can be stopped, andminimum monthly flows, both varying by month as shown in the tables below from the article (page 11).

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The minimum yearly safe transport through the pipeline is listed as 525,000 tonnes, which is just slightly more than the total of thesum of the monthly figures in the table above, and is consistent with the volume that is exempted from UNSC sanctions each year
at China's request.
The article was originally published as This article was originally published as 堀田幸裕「中国の対北朝鮮援助」(“Chuugok u no Tai Kita Chousen Enjo”) 『現代韓国朝鮮研究』第 13号、 2013年 11月、 14-26頁(“Gendai Kank ok u Chousen Kenk yu” [The Journal of Contemporary Korean Studies] vol.13, 14-25, November 2013).
The image below, from Google Earth Pro, shows a rail terminal for oil transfers near the Daqing oilfields, adjacent to a large refinery.
We do not k now if this is the terminal from which trains bearing crude oil destined for the DPRK are dispatched,but its size and location are consistent with such shipments. The location of this oil terminal is approximately 46.54, 125.098.

The Google Earth Pro image below shows the terminal of the Dandong-Sinuiju pipeline near Dandong. The train cars shown sitting in the yard inin other images tak en on different days at this location have a volume of about 30 cubic meters, and thus probably a capacity of about
30
tonnes per tank car. This implies that about
25,000 train cars of crude oil, or, if each train averaged
50
cars, about
500 trainloads of crude oil per year would be needed if the volume of crude oil that we assume for 2020 was
shipped from Daqing to Dandong for transfer to the DPRK. This implies on the order of
1.37 train loads are received each day
at the Dandong terminal. Location of the terminal is approximately 40.211, 124.38.
An example of the type of train car that may be used for transfer of the crude oil is shown below, from Alibaba.com(available as https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Oil-Tank -Wagon-car-railway-trailer_60279470959.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.53.2226bb38wqFZh4)

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There are four large tank s on the premises of the terminal, six that are somewhat smaller, and approximately seven of various much smaller sizes,
the largest of which, at about 12 meters in diameter, are located next to the tracks where train cars are unloaded. We estimate the volume of
the ten larger tanks as follows. Wikipedia (2020), "List of crude oil products", available as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crude_oil_products, lists the
API gravity of Daqing crude oil as
32.2 , which, based on a conversion formula, also from Wikipedia ("API gravity", available
as https://en.wik ipedia.org/wik i/API_gravity), implies an average density of
0.86 tonnes per cubic meter.
The results below suggest that storage at the terminal, when full, is enough to supply the pipeline for more than a month at full pipeline capacityof over one million tonnes per year (possibly up to 1.5 million), and for nearly two months or possibly more at the rate that we estimate the China has been
sending crude oil to the DPRK in recent years. Note that the estimates below are good to approximately one or two significant figures only.
Although we do not have the resources to do so, we assume it would be possible for an organization with access to regular (daily or more frequent)satellite images of Dandong to estimate the number of trains unloaded during a given year and thus the volume sent to the DPRK. Obesrvationof the levels of the larger tank s may also be helpful. Given, however, that images from some days will be obscured by cloudy weather, it
may not be possible to determine volumes accurately enough to confirm for certain whether the volumes supplied are greater than the
525,000 tonnes annually that China reports to the UNSC Panel of Experts.

Estimated
Diameter
Number(meters)
4
40
2
20
2
28
TOTAL OF ABOVE

Estimated
Height(meters)
22.5
18
24.75

Estimated
Volume (cubic
meters)113,097
11,31030,480Estimated Full
Capacity(tonnes crudeoil)
97,7609,776
26,346
133,882

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The Google Earth Pro image below, dated December of 2016, provides an overview of the area between the terminals of the oil pipeline on the
China and DPRK sides. We do not k now exactly what route the pipeline tak es, though it must be obliged to tak e a somewhat indirect
routing in the DPRK to circumvent hills that lie between the Yalu River and the DPRK terminal at the Pongwha Chemical factory.

We are not entirely sure where the pipeline crosses the Yalu River from China to the DPRK, but the Google Earth Pro image below,
located at about 40.154, 124.44, shows what could be the pipeline crossing the Yalu diagonally from upper left to lower right.
Image date 2.19-2020.

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57 We assume that there were at least some oil product imports to the DPRK that are not captured in any of the statistics or estimates of "off-book s" trade above
These imports may come from Russia, China, or other international vendors, and may be coming in by land or sea. They may be barter trades or
products imported via the black mark et. Our assumptions as to imports by product, from 2014 on, are as follows (tonnes):
Product
Gasoline
DieselKerosene/
Jet
Kerosene2014
15,00085,0002015
60,0002016
15,00020,0002017
120,000

2018
35,000110,000

2019
35,000110,000

2020
100,000---

15,00015,00020,0001,000

For 2017, when UN Security Council restrictions on oil imports were in full force, our assumption is that without a significant amount of fuel--lik ely diesel, beyond imports
described in customs statistics and off-book s imports from Russia described in notes 53 thourgh 55 above, signs of fuel shortages, particularly for diesel fuelwould have been more evident in the DPRK than visitors describe. We therefore assume that there were modest reductions in fuel use across the board, but alsothat the amounts of fuels shown above made their way into the country. For example, the 120,000 additional tonnes of diesel fuel we assume were imported "off-book s"
is more or less consistent with the (sanctions-evading) shipments recorded as received or planned through a Taiwanese company, as reported by the
UNSC "Panel of Experts" in paragraphs 71 and 72 of UNSC (2018), Note by the President of the Security Council , number S/2018/171, "Annex:
Letter dated 1 March 2018 from the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) addressed to the President of the Security Council,
available as http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2018/171&referer=/english/&Lang=E.
For 2018, our assumption is that once again the DPRK must have imported a significant amount of fuel, mostly diesel, through off-book s means, otherwise domestic
fuel prices would have been much higher and a much greater contraction in petroleum-fueled transport services would have been observed, even anecdotally.
The March 5, 2019 Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009), includes an analysis of potential ship-to-ship
oil transfers allegedly used by the DPRK to circumvent UNSC sanctions restricting imports of refined products. The Panel of Experts analysis remotely track ed theberthing of relatively small (approximately 900 to 5000 deadweight tonnes) tank ers at DPRK ports, most notably Nampo, but also including Chongjin, Najin, Wonsan,
and others. The Panel of Experts analysis calculated the volume of oil that would have been delivered by those vessels over the period from Janulary 1 throughAugust 18 of 2018 under assumptions that the vessels were 33 percent, 50 percent, and 90 percent full when they dock ed (and delivered that quantity of fuel).
Under these three assumptions, the total fuel delivered would have been
108,230.43
163,985.50 and
295,173.90 tonnes of oil products
respectively. Official reviewers of this analysis from the Russian Federation did not find the analysis acceptable, for reasons not fully specified. It seems possible
to us that in counting all of the vessels dock ing at these ports, the analysis may have included some transfers of oil products purchased under the allowed UNSC
500,000 barrel limit, and/or some transfers of refined product from DPRK refineries (most notably the refinery at Sinuiju) to one or more of these ports. And/or
some of these shipments might have represented transfers from port to port, and thus be effectively double-counting oil shipments. Still, we tak e the Panel ofExpert's point that even if these vessels were a third full, they would represent oil transfers greater than the 500,000 bbl limit, and thus is it improbable that all of
the transfers viewed by these ships were of oil obtained through transactions that allowed under sanctions. Further, the volumes calculated by the Panel of Experts
did not cover all of 2018. Starting with the Panel of Experts estimate of the amount of oil that would have been delivered by the observed tank ers
if they were on average half full, and assuming that the deliveries continued at about the same pace through the rest of 2018, the tank ers would have delivered
about
260,238 tonnes of oil products. We use this as an upper limit on off-books oil product imports to the DPRK,
Figures above from Panel of Experts Table 1 of Annex 2, starting on page 74 of referenced document, available at https://www.undocs.org/S/2019/171.

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58 Leo Byrne, then of NK News, brought to our attention an addition to the DPRK's refinery at Sinuiju, apparently made in 2016, that appears to bea fluid catalytic crack er unit (see photo at right). Based on conversations with Dr. David Fridley, formerly of Caltex, it seems lik ely that this unit is being used toconvert some of the heavy fuel oil produced by the refinery into lighter products. Based on input from Fridley, we assume that the unit is sized to use approximately
50% of the HFO produced by the refinery into lighter products. This would imply a capacity of about 250,000 tonnes per year for the crack er unit.
The product slate for the throughput of the crack er is estimated to be as follows:
Heavy Fuel Oil
0%
Gasoline
55%
Diesel Oil (light cycle oil)
20%
Kerosene/Jet Fuel (light cycle oil)
LPG/other gases/Refinery Gas
18%
Bottoms and Cok e (non-energy)
7%
We assume that the proportions of k erosene and jet fuel relative to diesel produced using the light cycle oil coming out of the crack er unit would be similar to
those in produced by the refinery before the installation of the crack er unit, about
16.7% . We further assume that the crack er unit's output. as a weight fraction of the heavy fuel oil input is about
97% based on data from table 2 of the
USDOE (2006) document Energy Bandwidth for Petroleum Refining Processes, available as https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/11/f4/bandwidth.pdf.
These figures imply that the output of the refinery after addition of the crack er unit is roughly as follows, assuming a rough split in fuel use for the crack er unit
between refinery gas and cok e produced by the unit.
Output as weight
Fuel/Fuel Category
fraction of input
Heavy Fuel Oil
19.0%
Gasoline
32.1%
Diesel Oil (light cycle oil)
23.1%
Kerosene/Jet Fuel (light cycle oil)
4.6%
LPG/other gases/Refinery Gas
12.0%
Bottoms and Cok e (non-energy)
4.7%
Implied overall Refinery efficiency
with Fluid Catalytic Cracker Unit
95.4%

59 The publication "China’s Sanctions Enforcement and Fuel Prices in North KoreaWhat the Data Tells Us", by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, 38N Special Report
dated February 2019, and available as https://www.38north.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/38-North-SR-1902-BKS-China-NK-Fuel.pdf, suggests that on average,
diesel prices were somewhat higher in 2018 than in 2017, and gasoiline prices were somewhat lower, though both had considerable variation over the year.
As these data are derived from a limited number of locations in the DPRK, they should be considered at best indicative.

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60 The DPRK imported the following non-energy petroleum products from countries other than China and Russia:
Imports to DPRK from UN Comtrade Database
Commodity Code 381121: Additives for
lubricating oils containing petroleum
Volume (te)Value$/TonneCountries
1990
0.60$1,329 $2,226 Singapore
1996
543.31 $1,241,024 $2,284 France
2000
10.48
$23,873 $2,278 Singapore, Japan
2001
$0 $
2002
174.52$362,946 $
2,080 Canada
2003
302.65$643,803 $
2,127 Canada, Austria, UK
2004
405.86$875,755 $
2,158 Canada
2005
363.11$927,885 $2,555 Canada
2006
189.16$516,705 $
2,732 Canada, Brazil
2007
16.00
$56,032 $
3,502
2008
$0 $
2009
$0 $
2010
0.03
$205 $
8,200
2011
$0 $
2012
$0 $
2013
$0 $
2014
$0 $
2015
$0 $
2016
$0 $
2017
$0 $
2018
$0 $
-

61 The UN Panel of Experts document referenced in note 57, above includes (as Table 14, of Annex 21) a table ofoil product exports reported to the Panel by China and Russia by Month in 2018. These figures arefrom the UNSC document "Supply, sale or transfer of all refined petroleum products to the DPRK", undated, but
apparently 2020, available as https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1718/supply-sale-or-transfer-of-all-refined-petroleum.
The figures below (from the referenced document) do not split out sales of petroleum product by type, and thus are difficult
to reconcile with the UN Comtrade data for Chinese and Russian oil exports to the DPRK summarized above, but the totalof the two sources seem comparable, depending on which products are assumed included. We use the Comtrade figures in
the accounting above.
Amounts received by
the Committee (tons)
Month

Jan-18
Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18
Jul-18Aug-18
Sep-18Oct-18
Nov-18Dec-18
Total of
Above

Source country
Russian
China
Federation
201.38368.24
1,392.35
1,882.56
2,438.99
1,897.58
437.46
4,293.47
1,451.41
1,286.14
1,507.90
1,570.44
903.87576.13
2,725.81
1,369.50
1,814.60
1,859.28
1,886.89
3,777.73
2,928.87
3,377.24
1,510.87
6,983.12
19,200.40

29,241.44

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62 The UN Panel of Experts document referenced in note 57, above includes (on page 152) a note on ROK exports of oil products to the DPRK:“among 338,737 k g of petroleum products used for the implementation of the joint projects from January 2018 to November 2018,
4,039 k g were unused and brought back to the ROK.” This means the ROK provided a net of334.70 tonnes ofoil products to the DPRK in 2018. We assume that these products were all diesel fuel.
The UN Panel of Experts document referenced in note 57, above includes (on page 153) a note on China's exports of crude oil to the DPRK:"....and China reported that the amount of the supply of crude oil by China to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was 150,500 tons
from December 2017 to February 2018; 147,900 tons from March to May 2018; 108,500 tons from June to August 2018;
and 118,100 tons from September to November 2018." These figures total
525,000 tonnes, which is the maximum
allowed under the UNSC sanctions regime. Although these periods in total do not quite match up to the 2018 calendar year, we assume thatthey are approximately the same as a calendar year total. We feel that the higher estimate of crude oil provision based on the physicallimitations of the China-DPRK pipeline operation may be a better figure than the reported total here, thus we use
the total estimated in Note 56 .
63 The UNSC "Panel of Experts" in UNSC (2020), Note by the President of the Security Council , number S/2020/151, dated 2 March 2020, and including"Annex: Letter dated 26 February 2020 from the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) addressed to the President of the
Security Council", available as https://undocs.org/S/2020/151, includes information on both recorded petroleum product exports by member states(China and the Russian Federation) to the DPRK that are allowed under sanctions, and a range of estimates of suspected volumes of ship-to-shiptransfers of oil products ultimately delivered to the DPRK that would have been in evasion of sanctions. The reported exports of refined products
by China and Russia over the period from January 1 through October 31 2019 was
408,576 barrels (bbl), which converts to
53,626 tonnes using the conversion factor used in the UNSC document (see footnote 3, page 8). Assuming that this rate of exports to the DPRK
continued over the 12 months of 2019, the total volume delivered would have been
64,351 tonnes. The UNSC document provides
no information on the volumes of specific oil products supplied by Russia and China, and no specifics on the products supplied were apparently provided
to the UNSC. We assume that this total of extrapolated "on-book s" exports would be similar in composition (division between products) to thatrecorded in 2018. Paragraph 5, page 9 of the March 2020 document lists reported (10-month) exports from Russia as
30,886.33 tonnes, andreported exports from China were
22,739.24 tonnes. Lack ing information on which oil products were included in these exports to the DPRK,
we assume that the exports coming from China were distributed between gasoline and diesel as they were in Comtrade statistics in 2017, roughly
50 percent for each, and for refined products coming from Russia, we assume that the same fraction used above for off-book s trades applies,that is,10% gasoline. For 2020, we assume that on an annual basis these "on-UNSC-book s" exports to the DPRK will be
reduced to about
35% of 2019 levels due to delivery restrictions related to coronavirus responses in the DPRK and other nations.
This value is reasonably close to the year-on-year 2020 versus 2019 January through June reported shipments of oil from China and Russia to the
DPRK. Quoting a UNSC document of 7/22/20 that was not immediately available, Yonghap News Agency, in "Chinese, Russian oil shipments to
N. Korea plunge amid coronavirus pandemic", dated 7/22/20 and available as https://en.yna.co.k r/view/AEN20200722008000325, lists total deliveries
from China and Russia to the DPRK of
14302 tonnes of refined products, compared with an approximate reported
29,602
tonnes in the first half of 2019 (rough estimate, as we do not have at hand monthly figures for Russian exports during 2019), which would be about
48% of 2019 deliveries. This represents, however, only the "on book s" trades reported in the first half of 2020, and the impact of COVID-19 on all trades
is lik ely to have been different.
In addition to these reported volumes of exports to the DPRK, the UNSC document above includes descriptions, provided by a Member State (the US),of 64 deliveries of oil products (or, at least, visits to oil terminals) by foreign-flagged tank ers to the DPRK (paragraph 10, page 9), and another "at least" 157
suspected deliveries (paragraph 33, page 20) from DPRK-flagged tank ers. Some or many of the oil products that made up these deliveries were apparently
obtained through ship-to-ship transfers at sea, either from foreign-flagged to DPRK-flagged vessels, or from foreign-flagged to other foreign-flagged vessels.
The US report to the UNSC Panel of Experts estimated the total deliveries of petroleum products over the first 10 months of 2019 under three scenarios,
as follows: Tank ers providing deliveries averaged of 1/3rd full:
1,436,412 bbl, if averaging 50% full,
2,164,113 bbl, and if
averaging 90% laden
3,894,426 bbl. The tank ers used in these shipments appear to vary in capacity from about 8000 to 44,000 tonnes ofoil products (first Table in Annex 1 of UNSC report, totals on page 86). It is not clear whether these recorded deliveries include those "on-book s"transfers recorded in the (roughly) 409,000 bbl from Russia and China, and it seems possible to us that some of these port visits could havebeen intra-DPRK transfers from its Sinuiju refinery (via transfer from train cars or tank er truck s, or from an oil product pipeline connected to the Ponghwa
Chemical factory, if such a pipeline exists). Assuming that the deliveries described above continued through 2019 and were at the 50 percent levelon average, and the average bbl per tonne was
8.0 , the total deliveries reported by the US in the UNSC report would be324,616.93 tonnes. If the "on-book s" deliveries are included in this total (we cannot tell whether they are or are not), the total additional "off-book s"imports, at least via ship (which is highly lik ely to be most, perhaps nearly all, of total off-book s imports) would be
260,266.25 tonnes in 2019.
The figure before subtracting on-book s trade (if it is included) is somewhat higher than the corresponding figure for 2018 (see Note 57). To what extent
this reflects a real increase in off-book s imports by the DPRK or is simply the result of better methods of/more complete detection of deliveries is unk nown.
64 Pending publishing of export and import data for 2019 or 2020, assumes imports LPG/non-energy petroleum products in 2019 wereof reported imports for 2018. For 2020, due to COVID-19 responses, we assume imports of these fuels wereA1- 201

100%
35% of 2018 levels.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEADDITIONAL BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:OIL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
ESTIMATE OF THE MATERIALS REQUIREMENT FOR SURFACINGNEW SUPERHIGHWAY BETWEEN PYONGYANG AND NAMPO, DPRK
Prepared By David Von Hippel, 10/19/00, Modified 6/8/02

ASSUMPTIONS:Asphalt paving is:
5% to
8% by weight Asphalt Cement (see Note 1) .
Paving on the Pyongyang--Nampo road will ultimately be:
15 cm thick (see Note 2)
Length of the Pyongyang--Nampo road recently constructed:
43 km (Note 3)
Pavement Width of the Pyongyang--Nampo road
50 meters (DVH on-site estimate)Specific gravity of pavement mixture (asphalt cement plus aggregate):
2.3 (Note 4)
RESULTS:
Estimated volume of asphalt mixture used on road:322,500 cubic meters, andEstimated mass of asphalt mixture used on road:741,750 tonnes
Estimated quantity of asphalt cement needed to make above quantity of asphalt mixture:
37,088to59,340 tonnes, or, by comparison, about
10%
to
16%
of our estimate that 1996 DPRK refinery output of heavy oil was about:
379,000 tonnes.

NOTES AND SOURCES:
1 The National Asphalt Pavement Association (NAPA), on its web site, defines Asphalt Cement (AC) as follows:"This is the black , stick y stuff produced by petroleum refineries. It is the "glue" that holds the pavement together.
Generally, it mak es up about less than 8%, by weight, of the total pavement mixture." Another asphalt-relatedsite provided an estimate that AC was 5% of the weight of asphalt paving (a mixture of AC and aggregate).
Information on the "FAQ" page of the Asphalt Institute WWW site(http://www.asphaltinstitute.org/faq/apcfaqs.htm#temp) suggests an intermediate concentration of
400 lbs of asphalt cement to 6000 lbs of asphalt paving (or about 6.7%).
2 Another asphalt www site visited suggested that 8 to 12 inches of asphalt paving (applied in at least
two layers) was standard for roads used by heavy duty truck s. Where paving was observed being applied to the
Pyongyang--Nampo road, the paving seemed to be thinner (perhaps 2-3 inches, or 5 to 7.5 cm), so it is assumed
both A) that a second layer would be applied, and B) that the ultimate thick ness will be somewhat less thanwould be recommended in the US for a highway of similar size.
3 In DPRK YOUTH BUILD PYONGYANG-NAMPO SUPERHIGHWAY
by Jang Yong Chol, First Secretary, Pyongyang City Committee, Kim Il Sung
Socialist Youth League, for the Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang, 28 August, 2000, reference ismade to the Pyongyang-Nampo having a "40-odd k m-long roadbed, scores of metres wide.."43 k m is a guess, based on the assumption that longer than 45 k m would lik ely be referred to as "nearly 50".
4 Density and specific gravity of asphalt will depend on the air void volume in the mix (typically 5 to 8 percent,as based on documents reviewed) and the density and shape of the aggregate used. An example given in adocument on the Asphalt Institute's WWW site has a specific gravity of 2.363.
http://www.infratech.com/technical_corner/tables_calculators/metric/density_asphalt_materials.htm
provides a table entitled "DENSITY AND SPECIFIC GRAVITY FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF COMPACTEDASPHALT PAVEMENTS", which gives a specific gravity range of 2.1 to 2.5 for (combined) several
types of asphalt pavements. The estimate of 2.3 for DPRK asphalt is a rough guess based on this range.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:BIOMASS AND WOOD PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

7/22/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Fuelwood Consumption (Residential and Industrial)
Residential Fuelwood
Industrial Fuelwood
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Total Fuelwood Production
Charcoal Production
Wood Input
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Process Efficiency
Total Wood used for Charcoal
Total Charcoal Production
Wood for Non-Energy Products
Building Materials
Pulp and Paper
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Total Wood, Non-Energy Products
Wood Imports
Imports of wood from Russia in exchange
for labor
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Sum of Other Recorded Wood/Wood
Product Imports
Wood Imports, Total
Wood Exports
Sum of Recorded Wood/Wood Product
Imports
Pulp and Paper Imports
Imports of Pulp, all countries
Imports of Paper, all countries
Exports of Paper, all countries
Total Domestic Wood Production
Other Biomass/Crop Wastes Production for Fuel
Crop Wastes Used in Agriculture:
Crop Wastes for Other Uses
Conversion Factor
Total Biomass/Crop Wastes Production
TOTAL WOOD/BIOMASS PRODUCTION

6.00E+06 cu.m.
1.50E+05 cu.m.
1.69 cu.m./te
16.00 GJ/te
5.82E+07 GJ

1
1
9
2

9.30E+05 cu.m.
1.50 cu.m./te
16.00 GJ/te
30%
9.92E+06 GJ
2.98E+06 GJ

1
10
2
Rough Estimate

1.00E+06 cu.m.
5.00E+05 cu.m.
2.00 cu.m./te
16.00 GJ/te
1.20E+07 GJ

13
1Assumed to be mostly softwood
2

1.50E+06 cu.m.
2.00 cu.m./te
16.00 GJ/te

3
Assumed to be mostly softwood

3.43E+03 te
1.21E+07 GJ

1.51E+05 GJ
5.01E+04 GJ
7.79E+04 GJ
1.83E+03 GJ
6.80E+07 GJ
3.10E+06 te
2.55E+06 te
14.5 GJ/te
8.19E+07 GJ, or
1.50E+08 GJ

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Derived from UN Comtrade Statistics
Derived from UN Comtrade Statistics
Derived from UN Comtrade Statistics

4
Est. based on needs
2
5.65E+06 tonnes

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE WOOD/BIOMASS SUPPLY
Category
Domestic wood production relative to 1990
Domestic wood production (GJ)
Wood used to make charcoal relative to 1990
Wood Used to make charcoal (GJ)
Charcoal production (GJ)
Recorded charcoal imports (GJ)
Recorded charcoal exports (GJ)
Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor
relative to 1990
Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products imports (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products exports (GJ)
Biomass/crop wastes production relative to 1990
Biomass/crop wastes production (GJ)

1996
137.09%9.33E+07
79.8%
7.92E+06
2.37E+06-

2000
139.30%9.48E+07
61.0%
6.05E+06
1.82E+06
3.24E+03
3.84E+02

2005
171.35%
1.17E+08
62.0%
6.15E+06
1.85E+06
6.51E+02
1.06E+04

2008
197.28%
1.34E+08
59.2%
5.87E+06
1.76E+06
8.33E+02
1.57E+01

2009
203.05%
1.38E+08
60.2%
5.97E+06
1.79E+06
5.66E+02
0.00E+00

2010
206.28%
1.40E+08
61.2%
6.07E+06
1.82E+06
9.54E+01
4.99E+01100%
1.21E+07
1.53E+06
3.57E+06
67.2%
5.50E+07

100%
1.21E+07
3.83E+05
2.52E+06
68.1%
5.58E+07

50%
6.03E+06
9.86E+05
1.98E+06
80.1%
6.56E+07

35%
4.22E+06
7.21E+05
1.38E+06
80.0%
6.55E+07

33%
3.98E+06
4.12E+05
1.43E+06
78.0%
6.39E+07

31%
3.74E+06
3.62E+05
5.14E+05
78.5%
6.43E+07

Pulp and Paper Imports from China (through 2005) or
all nations (from 2008) (tonnes)

4.8

772.7

43.9

67,71823,682

Pulp and Paper Imports from China (through 2005) or
all nations (from 2008) (GJ)

7.68E+01

1.24E+04 7.02E+02 1.08E+06

3.79E+05

Pulp and Paper Exports to China (through 2005) or all
nations (from 2008) (tonnes)

225.2

Pulp and Paper Exports to China (through 2005) or all
nations (from 2008) (GJ)

49.2

1,211.6

6
6

18
18
5
18
18
6

10,585 7, 17
1.69E+05

1,394

2,141

4,314 7, 17

3.60E+03

7.87E+02 1.94E+04 2.23E+04

3.43E+04

6.90E+04

Category
Domestic wood production relative to 1990
Domestic wood production (GJ)
Wood used to make charcoal relative to 1990
Wood Used to make charcoal (GJ)
Charcoal production (GJ)
Recorded charcoal imports (GJ)
Recorded charcoal exports (GJ)2014
193.49%1.32E+08
66.8%
6.63E+06
1.99E+06
1.07E+04
0.00E+00

2015
182.33%
1.24E+08
69.4%
6.88E+06
2.06E+06
6.37E+02
1.31E+03

2016
189.59%1.29E+08
72.0%
7.14E+06
2.14E+06
6.74E+02
5.69E+032017
157.99%1.07E+08
71.6%
7.10E+06
2.13E+06
4.68E+02
1.04E+04

2018
150.55%
1.02E+08
72.7%
7.21E+06
2.16E+06
2.69E+03
9.01E+02

2019
152.26%
1.04E+08
73.8%
7.32E+06
2.20E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor
relative to 1990
Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products imports (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products exports (GJ)
Biomass/crop wastes production relative to 1990
Biomass/crop wastes production (GJ)

30%
3.62E+06
7.26E+05
1.55E+06
90%
7.37E+0730%
3.62E+06
8.38E+05
2.10E+06
95%
7.78E+0730%
3.62E+06
2.20E+05
1.67E+06
80%
6.55E+0730%
3.62E+06
1.72E+05
9.73E+05
75.0%
6.14E+0730%
3.62E+06
1.85E+05
2.10E+05
72.0%
5.89E+0730%
3.62E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
70.0%
5.73E+07

Pulp and Paper Imports from all nations (tonnes)
Pulp and Paper Imports from all nations (GJ)
Pulp and Paper Exports to all Nations (tonnes)
Pulp and Paper Exports to all nations (GJ)

18,155
2.90E+05
2,579
4.13E+04

20,96721,014358
3.35E+05 3.36E+05 5.73E+03
2,773
1,653
1,128
4.44E+04 2.64E+04 1.81E+04

17,694
2.83E+05
253
4.05E+03(See Note 17)
0.00E+00(See Note 17)
0.00E+00

Category
Domestic wood production relative to 1990
Domestic wood production (GJ)
Wood used to make charcoal relative to 1990
Wood Used to make charcoal (GJ)
Charcoal production (GJ)
Recorded charcoal imports (GJ)
Recorded charcoal exports (GJ)
Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor
Wood imports from Russia in exchange for labor (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products imports (GJ)
Recorded wood/wood products exports (GJ)
Biomass/crop wastes production relative to 1990
Biomass/crop wastes production (GJ)
Pulp and Paper Imports from all nations (tonnes)
Pulp and Paper Imports from all nations (GJ)
Pulp and Paper Exports to all Nations (tonnes)
Pulp and Paper Exports to all nations (GJ)

2020
156.04%
1.06E+08
75.0%
7.44E+06
2.23E+06
0.00E+00
15%
1.81E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
68.0%
5.57E+07
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6
6

5

6

6
6

5

6
(See Note 17)(See Note 17)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Total Implied Domestic Wood Harvest, tonnes
Total Implied Domestic Wood Harvest, cu. meters

1990
4.25E+06
7.19E+06

1996
2000
2005
5.83E+06 5.92E+06 7.29E+06
9.86E+06 1.00E+07 1.23E+07

2008
8.39E+06
1.42E+07

2009
8.63E+06
1.46E+07

2010
8.77E+06
1.48E+07

Total Implied Domestic Wood Harvest, tonnes
Total Implied Domestic Wood Harvest, cu. meters

2014
8.23E+06
1.39E+07

2015
2016
2017
7.75E+06 8.06E+06 6.72E+06
1.31E+07 1.36E+07 1.14E+07

2018
6.40E+06
1.08E+07

2019
6.48E+06
1.10E+07

2020
6.00E+06
1.01E+07

Note: Totals above not adjusted for pulp and paper imports and exports (which are minor)
Summary of Information on Wood Stocks and Productivity in the DPRKFor 1996, Prof. Lee Seung-ho (see Note 8, below) estimates from remote sensing and other data that the growing stockof trees--including all above-ground biomass, was in the range of
251 to293 million
tonnes. The lower of these two estimates uses an average specific gravity for Korean hardwoods (0.65 versus0.80) that appears to be more realistic for typical Korean hardwood species. This lower estimate implies
average specific gravity of
1.37 cubic meters stem biomass per tonne above-ground biomass.
Based on growth rates for forests in areasof the ROK that have forests similar to the types of forests found in the DPRK, and using data from three sources,
Prof. Lee calculates a weighted-average annual growth rate of
3.06% , which implies an annual production fromgrowing tree stocks in the DPRK of
7.68E+06 tonnes per year. Note that this figure includes all
above-ground biomass, some of which (small twigs and leaves, for example) would likely not be used as fuel, andlikely some of which would be lost during harvesting. Prof. Lee cites ratios of total above-ground biomass to tree stem
volume ranging from 1.22 (for hardwoods) to 1.29 (for conifers). This implies that leaf and twig biomass might
be on the order of 5 to 15 percent of total above-ground biomass. The table below, originally from the UNEP
document cited in Note 11 , below, is included in Prof. Lee's presentation, and appears to paint a rosier picture of
DPRK forest stocks (Table 3.1 from UNEP document--shaded row and column are values calculated
from data in table), at least as of 1990.

Classification
TOTAL Forested land
Forest of timber industry
Economic forest
Firewood forest
Protected forest
Non-timber forest land
Unforested area
Grass field
Total of Above

Area (1000hectares)

8,201
5,440
1,436
196
1,129
436
383
170
9,190

Biomass stock(ton/hectare)

Implied stock(million
tonnes)

62.3
74.55
48.3
40.95
66.15
3.15
18
61.16

510.92405.55
69.36
8.03
74.68
1.37
3.06
562

Professor Lee cites several different sources for surveys of the DPRK's forest area, as follows:
Estimate(Mha)
Date
Source
9.77
1970
DPRK
8.97
1987
FAO
8.45
1994
KFRI: Satellite Image Analysis
7.53
1997
DPRK: UNDP Round Table Meeting
7.53
1999
KFRI: Satellite Image Analysis
In addition, the UN FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 (see note 12 , below) offers the following
estimated timeline of assessments of forest area
Estimate
(Mha)
8.20
6.82
6.19

Date
1990
2000
2005

A June, 2011 report by KFRI includes the following estimate of forest area in the DPRK, based on an English-language summary(see Note 15 ):Estimate
Date
8.20
1990
6.99
2000
6.29
2005
5.66
2010

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
A newer version of the UN FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment (2020 see note 19 , below) offers the following
estimated timeline of assessments of forest and "other woodland" area
Estimate (Mha)

Forest
6.912
6.455
6.242
6.136
6.030

Other
Woodland
1.864
2.172
2.301
2.366
2.430

Year
1990
2000
2010
2015
2020

GrowthRates,
Forest-0.68%-0.33%-0.17%-0.17%

From the data above, the implied rates of change in forest lands in the DPRK were:-1.45% per year, 1987 to 1999, using the multi-survey timeline cited by Prof. Lee,
-0.68% per year, 1990 to 2000, and-0.33% per year, 2000 to 2005, using the 2020 FRA estimates, and-1.59% per year, 1990 to 2000, and-2.09% per year, 2000 to 2005, and-2.18% per year, 2005 to 2010, based on the average of the 2005-2010 data in the summary of the 2011 KFRI reportand of the two later-period (2000-2010 and 1998-2008) studies referenced in the article described in Note 16 .
Based roughly on the information above, we make the following estimate of forest area, wood stocks, and wood production
over time.
Key Assumptions:
Estimate of forest area in 1990:
8.20 Million ha (DPRK State of Environment Report, 2003, and UN FAO FRA)
Change in extent of forest lands, 1990 to 2000:-1.06%
per year (average of rates estimated above).
Change in extent of forest lands, 2000 to 2005:-1.21%
per year (average of 2020 FRA and KFRI estimates).
Change in extent of forest lands, 2005 to 2010:-1.26%
per year (average of 2020 FRA with average of KFRI and other estimates--see above).
Change in extent of forest lands by 2015:-0.50%
per year, estimate, and about three times 2020 UNFAO FRA estimates for the period.
but which likely takes into account reported DPRK reforestation efforts and improved availabilty of non-biomass fuels as
the DPRK economy has grown, while still resulting in estimates for the wood harvest by year consistent with demand-based estimates described above.
Growing wood stocks on forest lands, 1996:
251
million tonnes (estimate above by Prof. Lee)
Average annual growth on stocked forest lands:
3.06%
per year (estimate above by Prof. Lee)
Average growth per ha on forest lands
0.94
te/ha-yr, based on estimates above.
Total degraded forest lands as of about 1997:
1.6317
Million ha (from Prof. Lee presentation, slide 34; includes"denuded forest", "unstocked forest", and "converted farmland", of which the latter is
59% of the total.
Average fraction of annual stocked-forest growth per hectare in degraded forests:
20% (placeholder
estimate).

10
8
6
4
2

Implied Annual Biomass Available from Degraded
Forest Areas (Mte)
Implied Annual Biomass Available from Reduction
in Forest Area (Mte)
Implied Annual Growth in Growing Stocks (Mte)

-

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Million Tonnes Tree Biomass

12

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Mha Forest
Lands

Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

8.20
8.11
8.03
7.94
7.86
7.77
7.69
7.61
7.53
7.45
7.37
7.28
7.19
7.10
7.02
6.93
6.85
6.76
6.67
6.59
6.51
6.44
6.37
6.32
6.28
6.25
6.22
6.19
6.16
6.13
6.10

Grow ing
Stocks(m illion te)

268
265
262
259
256
254
251
248
246
243
240
238
235
232
229
226
223
221
218
215
212
210
208
206
205
204
203
202
201
200
199

Im plied
AnnualBiom ass
Available
Im plied Annual
fromGrow th in
Reduction in
Grow ing Stocks Forest Area
(Mte)
(Mte)

8.19
8.10
8.02
7.93
7.85
7.76
7.68
7.60
7.52
7.44
7.36
7.27
7.18
7.09
7.01
6.92
6.84
6.75
6.67
6.58
6.50
6.43
6.37
6.31
6.27
6.24
6.21
6.18
6.15
6.12
6.09

2.88
2.85
2.82
2.79
2.76
2.73
2.70
2.67
2.64
2.62
2.59
2.91
2.88
2.84
2.81
2.77
2.85
2.81
2.78
2.74
2.71
2.35
2.01
1.67
1.34
1.03
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.00

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Im plied
AnnualWoody
Estim ated
Biom ass
Degraded
Available
Forestfrom Forest Lands or
Lands and
"OtherClearing
Woodland"
(Mte)
(Mha)

11.07
10.95
10.84
10.72
10.61
10.49
10.38
10.27
10.16
10.05
9.95
10.18
10.06
9.94
9.82
9.70
9.68
9.56
9.44
9.32
9.21
8.78
8.37
7.99
7.62
7.27
7.23
7.19
7.16
7.12
7.09

1.04
1.13
1.21
1.30
1.38
1.47
1.55
1.6317
1.71
1.79
1.87
1.96
2.05
2.14
2.22
2.31
2.39
2.48
2.57
2.65
2.73
2.81
2.87
2.92
2.96
2.99
3.02
3.05
3.08
3.11
3.14

Im plied
AnnualBiom ass
Availablefrom
Degraded
ForestAreas(Mte)

Im plied
AnnualWoody
Biom ass
Availablefrom all
Stocked andDegraded
Forests
(Mte)

0.19
0.21
0.23
0.24
0.26
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.32
0.34
0.35
0.37
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.45
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.51
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.57
0.58
0.58
0.59

11.27
11.16
11.06
10.96
10.87
10.77
10.67
10.58
10.48
10.39
10.30
10.55
10.44
10.34
10.23
10.13
10.13
10.03
9.92
9.82
9.72
9.30
8.91
8.53
8.17
7.83
7.80
7.77
7.74
7.71
7.68

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes:
1 Documents in authors' files provide estimates that cover a wide range. One source [FC1, p. 11] cites
production of 8 - 10 million cubic meters of fuelwood, while other sources suggest total wood productionof 4.7 to 7 million cubic meters. Professor Lee Seung-ho (see Note 8, below) provides an estimate ofsomewhat less than 4 million cubic meters of fuelwood in 1990, rising to 4 million by 1996, and increasing
steeply to 5.5 million cubic meters by 1999. Lee cites UN FAO statistics as the source for these data.
The UN FAO (2005, see Note 12, below) cites a fuelwood production figure of just over 5 million cubic meters.
We use a figure roughly in the middle of this overall range for fuelwood. Most other quantities link ed tothis note are from the document that provided the higher-range estimate for fuelwood use.
Wood input for charcoal falls within a range quoted by a document in the authors files, but was adjusted toroughly match UN FAO production estimate for 1990 shown in Note 7.
2 From document in authors' files [FC1, p. 7].
3 Annual imports from Russia. Document in authors' files lists imports of 2.5 million cubic meters [TP1, p. 4].
Note: other sources list these imports at 230 k cu.m./yr, and also list the number of DPRK work ers
sent to Russian forests at 16-20,000 annually. An abstract from a 1990s report on the Russian
Far East forestry sector (C I N T R A F O R Work ing Paper Abstract, "The Forest Sector in the Russian
Far East: Status and Near-Term Development", by Ek aterina Gataulina and Thomas R. Waggener, 1998,
available as http://www.cintrafor.org/research_tab/link s/WP/WP63.htm) suggests that the average productivityof Russian forest work ers as of 1994 was "360 m 3 per work er (roundwood equivalent)", presumably per annum.
This suggests, if the productivity of DPRK work crews were similar, that the DPRK crews might harvest up to
about 7 million cubic meters per year, assuming the same rate of production (and the same access toharvesting equipment--which may well not be a given) as Russian crews. If, as has been reported, DPRK
harvesting crews brought home approximately a quarter or a third of their harvest (the rest remaining in
Russia), annual imports of wood back to the DPRK would be in the range from 1.9 to 2.4 million cubic meters.
We assume that 1990 imports of wood to the DPRK from the RFE was somewhat below the lower end of this range,
based on an assumption of lower productivity.
4 Use of straw and bran in Agriculture from document in authors' files [HT1, p. 10].
5 Assumptions. Artyom Luk in (2020), "North Korea Stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place: One Year after the Hanoi Summit",
dated March 10, 2020, published by Foreign Policy Research Insitute, and available
https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/north-k orea-stuck -between-a-rock -and-a-hard-place-one-year-after-the-hanoi-summit/,suggests that the use of DPRK labor for forest operations in (for example) Siberia has declined to near-zero due to changes
in the Russian timber industry: "...virtually stopped hiring them in the 2000s when the industry shifted to the use ofhighly efficient harvester machines." Based on this finding, we assume that the use of DPRK labor for forestry, and thus
related off-book s imports of Russian timber, declinded after 2000, with some timber exports possibly continuingin partial payment for DPRK labor work ing in other sectors, such as construction, which apparently continued until
UNSC sanctions prohibiting most imports of DPRK labor went into force. For 2020, we assume that these imports wereon the order of half of those in previous years, due to restrictions on trade movements due to the DPRK (and Russian) efforts
to reduce the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the lik ely resulting further reduction of DPRK labor work ing in the
Russian Far East.
6 Adjusted to meet demand; crop biomass availabiltiy use is assumed to generally, though not directly, track
production of cereal crops (see Agriculture work sheet).

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
7 China Customs Statistics reported exports "woodpulp, etc" from the DPRK to China
in 2005 of (HS #47) of
1,098 tonnes. No shipments in this category were reported in 2000,
and 1996 shipment were
80 tonnes.
China also imported 726 and 145 tonnes of "paper and paperboard" (HS # 48) from the DPRK in 2003 and 2004 (noDPRK paper and paperboard exports to China were recorded in 2005). In 1996, exports from the DPRK were145.35tonnes in this category, and exports in 2000 were49.215 tonnes.
An additional
114 tonnes of paper and paperboard were recorded, however, as exported to Hong Kongfrom the DPRK in 2005, down from 566 tonnes in 2003 and 136 tonnes in 2004.
China exported modest amounts of paper and paperboard to the DPRK: about 9.9, and 11.4
tonnes in 2003 and 2004, respectively, and12.9 tonnes in 2005,
6.7 tonnes in 2000, and
4.8 tonnes in 1996, along with a tonne or less of wood pulp in each of those years.
Hong Kong also exported modest amounts of paper and paperboard to the DPRK: about 42, 38, and31
tonnes in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, plus
766 tonnes of wood pulp (but no paper) in in 2000.
Import/export data as compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates for DPRK wood and wood products imports and exports areavailable from http://faostat.fao.org/site/381/Desk topDefault.aspx?PageID=381, and suggest imports andexports of wood and wood products from thousands to tens of thousands of cubic meters (or tonnes) per year overthe period from 2000 to 2005. These data have not yet been directly used in the estimates prepared as above because
A) in some cases, the use of a value for several consecutive years suggests primary data have not been used, andB) these quantitities have little effect on the overall wood supply/demand balance estimated above. Sample FAO datatables (from the FAOSTAT site) are provided below (for "Korea, Dem People's Rep").
Item
Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C)Chips and Particles
Wood Residues
Wood Charcoal
Sawnwood (C)Sawnwood (NC)
Veneer Sheets
Plywood
Particle Board
Hardboard
MDF
Fibreboard, Compressed
Insulating Board
Ind Rwd Wir (C)Mechanical Wood Pulp
Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp
Chemical Wood Pulp
Ind Rwd Wir (NC) Tropica
Dissolving Wood Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Recovered Paper
Ind Rwd Wir (NC) Other
Newsprint
Printing+Writing Paper
Other Paper+Paperboard

Element
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty
Imports - Qty

Unit
Cum
Cum
Cum
Mt
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Cum
Mt
Mt
Mt
Cum
Mt
Mt
Mt
Cum
Mt
Mt
Mt

2000
0
950
0
0
1000
200
100
1100
200
0
0
0
0
10100
0
0
11500
0
0
0
800
1100
400
2900
1300

A1- 209

2001
0
0
600
700
200
300
300
3000
200
100
5500
0
0
0
100
0
44700
0
0
200
2000
0
5400
16900
2200

2002
0
0
600
700
200
300
300
3000
200
100
5500
0
0
0
100
0
44700
0
0
200
2000
0
5400
16900
2200

2003
0
0
600
700
200
300
300
3000
200
100
5500
0
0
0
100
0
44700
0
0
200
2000
0
5400
16900
2200

2004
0
0
600
700
200
300
300
3000
200
100
5500
0
0
0
100
0
44700
0
0
200
2000
0
5400
16900
2200

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Item
Chemical Wood Pulp
Mechanical Wood Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Other Paper+Paperboard
Wood Charcoal
Other Indust Roundwd(C)Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C)Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (NC)
Sawnwood (C)Sawnwood (NC)Element
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production
Production

Unittonnestonnestonnestonnestonnes
CUM
CUM
CUM
CUM
CUM

1990
43000
13000
50000
80000
102729300000400000200000185000
95000

1996
43000
13000
50000
80000
131226300000450000250000185000
95000

2000
43000
13000
50000
80000
141339500000600000400000185000
95000

2005
43000
13000
50000
80000
14993950000060000040000018500095000

8Data from presentation entitled "Forest and Other Biomass Production in the DPRK: Current Situation andRecent Trends as Indicated by Remote Sensing Data - Status of Forest Resources, Degradation &Biomass in North Korea using Remote Sensing Data" by Professor Lee Seung-ho of theRemote Sensing Laboratory, KOREA FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Prof. Lee's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/papers/Lee.ppt.

9

Calculated from data in Source 8 (slide 59) as weighted average:

1.69

10 Input to charcoal production assumed to be largely hardwood.
11 The report DPR KOREA : STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT 2003 , published by the United Nations Environment
Programme, lists (table 3.2) oak as the dominant hardwood tree species in the DPRK (52.4 percent in deciduous forests).
12 The UN FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 (FRA) provides forest extent, forest stock , and other data overtime for most nations, including the DPRK. DPRK data are available from www.fao.org/forestry/site/32086/en/prk .
Key tables from this source are reproduced below.
Extent of forest and other wooded land
FRA 2005 categories

Area (1000 hectares)
1990
2000
2005
Forest
8,201
6,821
6,187
Other wooded land
Forest and other wooded land
8,201
6,821
6,187
Other land
3,840
5,220
5,854
...of which with tree cover
Total land area
12,041
12,041
12,041Inland water bodies
13
13
13
Total area of country
12,054
12,054
12,054
Data source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005.

Note--Table above only part of that provided in source, but the remainder of the table includes no data.

A1- 210

2006
43000
13000
50000
80000
151258500000600000400000185000
95000

2007
43000
13000
50000
80000
152600500000600000400000185000
95000

2008
43000
13000
50000
80000
153900500000600000400000185000
95000

2009
43000
13000
50000
80000
15528650000060000040000018500095000

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Growing stock in forest and other wooded land
Volume (million cubic meters over bark)
ForestOther wooded land

FRA 2005
categories

1990

Grow ing
stock inforest andother w ooded
land
Commercial
grow ing
stock
-

2000

504

2005

429

1990

395 -

Data source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005.

2000

2005

-

-

-

-

Biomass stock in forest and other wooded land
Biomass (million metric tonnes oven-dry weight)
ForestOther wooded land
1990
2000
2005
1990
2000
2005

FRA 2005
categories
Abovegroundbiomass
Below groundbiomass
Total living
biomass

434

369

340 -

-

-

159

136

125 -

-

-

-

-

593
505
464 8774
68 Total
680
579
532 Data source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005.
Dead w ood

FRA 2005
categories

1990

Carbon stock in forest and other wooded land
Carbon (million metric tonnes)
ForestOther wooded land
2000
2005
1990
2000
2005

Carbon inabove-groundbiomass

217

185

170

-

-

-

Carbon in
below -groundbiomass

80

68

62

-

-

-

297

252

232

-

-

-

43

37

34

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total
340
289
266
Data source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005.

--

Carbon inliving biomass
Carbon indead w ood
Carbon inlitterCarbon indead w ood
and litter
Soil carbon

FRA 2005
categories

-

43

-

37

-

1990

-

34

-

Removals of wood products
Volume (1000 cubic meters over bark)
ForestOther wooded land
2000
2005
1990
2000
2005

Industrial
roundw ood

690
1,725
1,725 5,055
6,318
6,967 Total
5,745
8,043
8,692 Data source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005.
Woodfuel--This document also lists the area of forest lands affected by forest fires in the DPRK at

46 kha/yr.

13 A document in the authors' file lists "building materials" (assumed to be similar to "industrial roundwood",
though the latter may also include wood for pulp)
consumption at "3 to 5 million cubic meters/yr". By way of comparison, at this level, the DPRK would beusing approximately twice as much roundwood per capita as China in 1990. We assume that therange above is an over-estimate, and that the UN FAO FRA value (see above) is more reasonable,
though possibly still a bit of an under-estimate. We therefore use 1 million cubic meters for building
materials as an estimate for 1990.

A1- 211

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
14 The following is a rough calculation of the annual availablity of livestock manures in 2005:
Animal Type Number
kg VS/dayte VS/yr
Cattle5780002.2
464,134
Pigs
3200000
0.3
350,400
Chickens
21000000
0.01
76,650Ducks
5500000
0.024
48,180Goats
2750000
Sheep
172000TOTAL
939,364
Note: VS = "volatile solids", essentially a measure of the amount of dry organic matter in the manure.
Animal numbers from UN Food and Agriculture Organization FAOSTAT, available as http://faostat.fao.org/site/568/default.aspx.
Estimates of manure production per animal are derived from data in Rural Energy Production: Biogas Plant, a Sustainable Source ofEnergy for Cooperative Farms, by Arthur Wellinger, dated December 12, 2003, and published by ADRA (Adventist Development
and Relief Agency International) and Nova Energie. The Wellinger report provides case studies of the application ofmanure-fed biogas digesters in the DPRK.
15 The following is a summary of a Korea Foreast Research Institute Report, copied fromhttp://www6.lexisnexis.com/publisher/EndUser?Action=UserDisplayFullDocument&orgId=574&topicId=100007194&docId=l:1438898309&start=8:

Asia Pulse, June 17, 2011 Friday 11:09 AM EST, NATIONWIDE INTERNATIONAL NEWSN. KOREA'S DEFORESTATION PROCEEDING RAPIDLY: REPORTSEOUL June 17
Deforestation in North Korea is tak ing place at a rapid pace as people cut down trees for fuel and turn forest into farmland,a report by a state think tank here said Friday.
An average of 127,000 hectares of forest in North Korea have been destroyed on average every year for the past two decades,
the Korea Forest Research Institute (KFRI) said in the report based on data by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Total forest area in North Korea stood at 5.66 million hectares as of 2010, which was less than the 6.22 million hectares tallied for South Korea.
The institute under the farm ministry said that the pace of deforestation is even faster than that of rainforests around the world.
"The size of forest lost every year is equal to 150 times the land area of Yeouido in Seoul," the KFRI said. Yeouido in central Seoul, an
island-turned-business district, is home to many South Korean securities firms, the stock exchange and the National Assembly.
The report said North Korean forests are probably being destroyed to provide wood for heating and cook ing andto mak e new farmland to grow more food.
The report, meanwhile, showed that North Korea's forest size decreased from slightly over 8.20 million hectares in 1990 to 6.99 million
hectares 10 years later and 6.29 million in 2005.
16 The article "Estimation of future carbon budget with climate change and reforestation scenario in North Korea", byDamin Kim, Chul-Hee Lim, Cholho Song, Woo-Kyun Lee ⇑ , Dongfan Piao, Seongbong Heo, and Seongwoo Jeon,
Advances in Space Research 58 (2016) 1002–1016, includes a table with the following summaries of deforestation
extents in the DPRK over different periods:

References (refers toreferences in article)
KFS (2011)
FAO (2010)
Lee et al. (2007)
Park and Yu (2009)
Park et al. (2014)
This study

Decrease in
Forested
Area (million
ha)
Period
1.7 1999–2008
2.5 1990–2010
1.2 Late 1980s–early 2000s
1.9 1989–2008
1.7 2000–2012
1.8 Late 1980s (1987–89)–2010

ImpliedImplied loss loss ofof forest forest area
lands per relative toyear (million beginningha)of period
0.18892.67%
0.12501.52%
0.08571.05%
0.10001.22%
0.14172.04%
0.08181.00%

A1- 212Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

17 The following summarizes data on pulp and paper (HS 47 and 48) imports from and exports to the DPRK from all trade partners forthe period from 2008 through 2018 from Comtrade (accessed 6/13/18 and 2/2020):
Importfrom/ExportYear
to DPRK2008 Import
2008 Export
2009 Import
2009 Export
2010 Import2010 Export
2011 Import
2011 Export
2012 Import2012 Export
2013 Import2013 Export
2014 Import2014 Export
2015 Import2015 Export
2016 Import2016 Export2017 Import2017 Export
2018 Import2018 Export
2019 Import
2019 Export
2020 Import2020 Export

Products
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X
All 470X

Importfrom/ExportYear
to DPRK
Products
2008 Import
All 480X
2008 Export
All 480X
2009 Import
All 480X
2009 Export
All 480X
2010 Import
All 480X
2010 Export
All 480X
2011 Import
All 480X
2011 Export
All 480X
2012 Import
All 480X
2012 Export
All 480X
2013 Import
All 480X
2013 Export
All 480X
2014 Import
All 480X
2014 Export
All 480X
2015 Import
All 480X
2015 Export
All 480X
2016 Import
All 480X
2016 Export
All 480X
2017 Import
All 480X
2017 Export
All 480X
2018 Import
All 480X
2018 Export
All 480X
2019 Import
All 480X
2019 Export
All 480X
2020 Import
All 480X
2020 Export
All 480X

Total Value Total Weight Implied cost
(USD)
(te)
per tonne$
168,400
845 $ 199.38$ 25,632,705
61,395 $ 417.51$
41,31893 $ 443.87$ 6,750,550
19,600 $ 344.42$ 1,765,547
2,091 $ 844.28$ 3,334,609
4,838 $ 689.25$
352,193625 $ 563.80$ 3,371,192
3,492 $ 965.46$
86,704443 $ 195.57$
981,797
1,240 $ 791.87$
38,722
107 $ 360.32$ 4,661,918
7,920 $ 588.64$
328,319
501 $ 654.96$ 2,708,540
5,412 $ 500.46$
13,20188 $ 149.37$ 1,454,085
2,298 $ 632.67$
332,024629 $ 527.56$
962,044
1,370 $ 702.25$
66,764368 $ 181.31$
150,618
312 $ 482.75$$$
854,8871225.463 $ 697.60$$#DIV/0!
$$#DIV/0!

A1- 213

Total Value
Total Weight Implied cost
(USD)
(te)
per tonne$
393,260550 $
715.27$ 4,658,978
6,323 $
736.79$ 1,581,640
2,048 $
772.24$ 3,265,465
4,082 $
800.05$ 1,520,691
2,223 $
684.22$ 4,238,072
5,747 $
737.43$ 1,671,082
2,369 $
705.50$ 10,369,411
11,950 $867.72$ 1,242,413
1,324 $
938.71$ 5,861,840
7,569 $
774.50$ 1,466,483
1,634 $
897.22$ 6,877,692
8,201 $
838.63$ 2,079,345
2,077 $ 1,000.89$ 11,274,610
12,743 $884.77$ 2,166,414
2,685 $
807.00$ 16,102,244
18,669 $862.51$890,082
1,023 $
869.65$ 15,767,756
19,644 $802.67$535,116760 $
704.19$34,42346 $742.16$204,634253 $
807.90$ 14,482,950
16,468 $879.45#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
18 The following summarizes data on wood and wood products (HS 44) imports from and exports to the DPRK from all trade partners forthe period from 2008 through 2018 from Comtrade (accessed 3/10/2020):

Importfrom/ExportYear
to DPRK
1990 Import
1990 Export
1996 Import
1996 Export
2000 Import2000 Export
2005 Import2005 Export
2008 Import
2008 Export
2009 Import
2009 Export
2010 Import2010 Export
2011 Import
2011 Export
2012 Import2012 Export
2013 Import2013 Export
2014 Import2014 Export
2015 Import2015 Export
2016 Import2016 Export2017 Import2017 Export
2018 Import2018 Export
2019 Import
2019 Export
2020 Import2020 Export

Products
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX
All 44XX

Total Value Total Weight Implied cost
(USD)
(te)
per tonne$ 1,162,903
9,425 $ 123.39$ 1,469,403
3,428 $ 428.61$ 19,458,724
223,148 $87.20$ 6,696,266
95,803 $69.90$ 10,731,155
157,273 $68.23$ 3,073,836
24,143 $ 127.32$ 14,990,785
124,413 $ 120.49$ 7,880,662
61,684 $ 127.76$ 7,686,204
86,322 $89.04$ 6,715,446
45,126 $ 148.81$ 8,611,239
89,503 $96.21$ 4,064,759
25,786 $ 157.63$ 3,581,731
32,152 $ 111.40$ 4,480,108
22,616 $ 198.10$ 4,181,473
24,752 $ 168.93$ 5,349,302
15,775 $ 339.10$ 7,026,099
35,396 $ 198.50$ 2,938,213
12,237 $ 240.11$ 5,545,142
37,066 $ 149.60$ 5,966,771
54,151 $ 110.19$ 14,685,712
96,657 $ 151.94$ 7,417,262
46,060 $ 161.03$ 18,619,881
131,066 $ 142.07$ 9,373,916
52,426 $ 178.80$ 15,029,669
104,867 $ 143.32$ 3,389,305
13,770 $ 246.14$ 9,626,060
61,477 $ 156.58$ 5,131,112
10,758 $ 476.97$ 1,953,551
13,171 $ 148.32$ 6,665,391
11,737 $ 567.88#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

A1- 214

Total
WeightCharcoalOnly(4402, te)
0.70
24
202
661
41
1
52
35
3
6
0
45
439
2,633
668
82
40
355
42
647
29
56
168

Impliedcost pertonne$ 4,446#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
$
629
$
105
$
105
$
701
$
350
$
268
#DIV/0!
$384$
160$ 1,538$160$
726#DIV/0!
$288#DIV/0!
$363#DIV/0!
$250$ 1,283$742$
224$ 1,217$181$ 1,337$170$ 1,983#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Total
Weightwithout
Charcoal
(te)
9,424
3,428
223,148
95,803
157,249
23,941
123,752
61,64386,32145,07489,50325,75132,14922,61024,752
15,73035,396
11,79837,06651,51896,65745,392130,984
52,386
104,511
13,72860,83010,72913,115
11,569-Implied cost
per tonne$
123.07$428.61
$
87.20
$
69.90
$
68.15
$
127.51$120.57$127.38$89.04$
148.68$96.21$
157.32$111.39$197.74$168.93$337.98$198.50$238.31$149.60$97.27$
151.94$
159.73$141.35$178.38$143.05$243.16$156.33$474.62$148.23$547.32#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

19 The UN FAO Forest Resource Assesment (FRA) for 2020, Desk Study Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,
available as http://www.fao.org/3/ca9858en/ca9858en.pdf, provides details of FAO estimates of DPRK
forest area and related data. The methods and categorizations for forest area appear to beslightly different than those in earlier versions of the FRA.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 1990
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
3/1/2007
DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Electricity Generation: Output by Fuel Type:
Total Gross Generation
4.60E+04 GWhe
1
Fraction in Hydro Plants
46.3%
2
Fraction in Thermal Plants
53.7%
2
Generation in largest Oil-fired plant
1.28E+03 GWhe
3
Fraction of Oil Generation in Largest Plant
100%
4Gross Generation, Hydro Plants
2.13E+04 GWhe
Gross Generation, Oil Plants
1.28E+03 GWhe
Gross Generation, Coal Plants
2.34E+04 GWhe
Conversion Factor
3.60E+03 GJ/GWhe
Gross Generation, Hydro Plants
7.66E+07 GJ
Gross Generation, Oil Plants
4.61E+06 GJ
Gross Generation, Coal Plants
8.44E+07 GJ
Own Use Rate, Hydro Plants
0.3%
5
Own Use Rate, Oil Plants
8.00%
5
Own Use Rate, Coal Plants
9.00%
5
Own Use, Hydro Plants
6.39E+01 GWhe
Own Use, Oil Plants
1.02E+02 GWhe
Own Use, Coal Plants
2.11E+03 GWhe
Own Use, Hydro Plants
2.30E+05 GJ
Own Use, Oil Plants
3.69E+05 GJ
Own Use, Coal Plants
7.59E+06 GJ
Net Generation, Hydro Plants
2.123E+04 GWheNet Generation, Oil Plants
1.178E+03 GWheNet Generation, Coal Plants
2.132E+04 GWheNet Generation, Hydro Plants
7.64E+07 GJ
Net Generation, Oil Plants
4.24E+06 GJ
Net Generation, Coal Plants
7.68E+07 GJ
MW of hydro capacity in shared dams used by China
700 MW
11
Fraction of 1990 DPRK hydro generation represented
by Chinese border hydro plants
Exports of electricity to China (does not count sharedborder dams)
Exports of electricity to China via shared dams
"Emergency Losses" Rate, Coal Plants"Emergency Losses", Coal Plants"Emergency Losses", Coal Plants
Total Net Generation factoring in emergency losses,
Coal Plants
Total Net Generation factoring in emergency losses,
All Plants
Total Net Generation, All Plants
Transmission and Distribution Losses
Transmission Losses
Distribution Losses
Delivered Electricity
Delivered Electricity
Fuel Requirements for Electricity Generation"Heat Rate" (Efficiency) Hydro Plants
Gross Generation Efficiency, Oil-Fired Plants
Gross Generation Efficiency, Coal-Fired Plants
Input Energy, Hydro Plants
Input Energy, Oil Plants
Input Energy, Coal Plants
Fraction of energy input to Coal plants as residual oil
Oil input to coal plants
Total Input Energy, Electricity Generation

16%
0.00E+00 GWhe
1.19E+07 GJ
5.0%
1.17E+03 GWhe
4.22E+06 GJ

12

14
6

7.25E+07 GJ
4.26E+04 GWhe
1.53E+08 GJ
10%6%
3.60E+04 GWhe
1.30E+08 GJ

7
7100.00%29.5%
28.0%
7.66E+07 GJ
1.56E+07 GJ
3.01E+08 GJ
2.1%
6.33E+06 GJ
3.94E+08 GJ

8
9
10

A1- 216

Assumption

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Somewhat lower than value cited by Choi Su Young, Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea ,P. 49 (55.5 TWh) as "Official NK Figures", compiled by RINU. Other estimates, published and otherwise
place 1990 DPRK electricity output between about 28 TWh (RINU estimate) and 60 TWh.
2 Figures from document in authors' files [EE1, p. 15].
3 For Oung gi plant, one of (possibly) 2 grid-connected oil-fired plants. From document in authors' files [EE1, p. I-2].
4 The Oung gi plant is 200 MW. The second oil-fired plant listed by some sources must be quite small,
if indeed it exists. Other sources claim that there is only one oil-fired plant in the DPRK, which we have assumed.
5 ROK rates in 1970. From p. 129,E-W.Kim et al, "The Electric Future of Korea" East-West Center,
September, 1983. Own use rates for Chinese coal-fired plants are very slightly higher.
6 Rough estimate. A note in document in authors' files [EE1, p. 26]
put the loss from "frequent emergencies" at Pyongyang power
station at 7%. It is not clear whether this value is typical for the DPRK system as a whole.
7 Official Estimates. From document in authors' files [EP1, p. 3].
This source notes that these estimates may be optimistic.
8 As used in United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook .
9 Author's estimate. Official rate of approximately 35% (as presented in UNDP (1994), Studies in Supportof Tumen River Area Development Programme. Prepared by KIEP, Seoul, ROK for the UNDP, July, 1994)
seems somewhat high given the reported condition of the power plant at Sonbong.
10 This rate is somewhat lower than that given for the Chongjin plant in source 9, and similar to the heatrates in Chinese coal plants in the late 1970's.
11 See "Energy Generation Facilities" sheet.
12 Assumes that exported electric energy is proportional to the fraction of capacity earmark ed for Chinese use.
13 The DPRK's Yongbyon nuclear plant, though frequently described as having a capacity of "5 MWe", 5 MW
electrical output) is not configured to produce electricity (see, for example, North Korea's Nuclear
Weapons Programme, by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2006, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategicdossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-w eapons-programmes-a-net-asses/north-koreas-nuclear-w eapons-programme#w eapons

The Yongbyon reactor does, however, provide some heat to buildings in the area. The reactor is said to have a
rated output of about
25 MWth (a range of 20 - 30 MWth is often cited). Capacity factors of about
80 percent for this reactor have been cited, but other observers suggest that a capacity factor of60%
is "more realistic". For 1990, and pending the addition of "heat" as a separate balance category, weplace the heat produced by the Yongbyon reactor, estimated at
4.73E+05 GJ. In the "Hydro/Nuclear"and the "non-specified" row of the energy balance, as well as in the "domestic production" row under supplies.
See "Yongbyon 5-MW(e) Reactor" from http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk /yongbyon-5.htm
for estimates of Yongbyon capacity factor.
14 Not counted as exports in energy balances because these plants are owned and operated by China.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ELECTRICITY GENERATION FACILITIESMAJOR THERMAL GENERATING FACILITIESCapacity
#
Name
(MW)
Fuel
1 Pyongyang
500 Coal
2 Bukchang
1600 Coal
3 Chongjin
150 Coal
4 Chonchonang
200 Coal
5 Oungi
200 Oil
6 Sunchon
200 Coal
7 East Pyongyang
50 CoalTOTAL OF LISTED PLANTS

Year
Completed Latitude
Longitude Sources/Notes:
1968
39.009548 125.71097 1
1985
1,2,7
1984
1,2
1979
1,2
1973
2
1988
1
1992
38.969045 125.68841 3, 182900

THERMAL GENERATING FACILITIES REPORTEDLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
OR RECENTLY COMPLETED AS OF 1996#

Name
1 Pyunghung(?)
2 Suncheon(?)
3 Dongpyungyang
4 Kimchaek
5 Hamhyng central
6 12wol
7 Haeju
8 Ahnju
9 Hamheung

TOTAL OF LISTED PLANTS

Capacity(MW)
Fuel
200 Coal
200 Coal
600 Coal
150 Coal
100 Coal
150 Coal
11 Coal1200 Coal
150 CoalYear
StartedYear
Completed Sources/Notes:
8
8,121993 - 1996
13
1988
2
1994
2
1993?
13
1990
13, 191989
13
1989
13, 142,761

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Google Earth Image of Pyongyang Power Plant, Probably summer, 2018

A1- 219

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Google Earth Image of East Pyongyang Power Plant, Probably summer, 2018

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MAJOR HYDRO GENERATING FACILITIESCapacity
Year
Year
#
Name
(MW)
Completed Refurbished Sources/Notes:
1 Supung
400
1,2,4
2 Kymgansang cascade
13.5
1930
1958 2
3 Puren cascade
28.5
1932
2
4 Puch’on-gang
260
1932
1956 2,11
5 Chanjin-gang
390
1936
1958 2
6 Hoch’on-gang
394
1942
1958 2
7 Tonno-gang
90
1959
2
8 Kangae
246
1965
2
9 Ounbong
200
1970
2,5
10 Sodusu-1
180
1974
2,9
11 Sodusu-2
230
1978
2,9
12 Sodusu-3
45
1982
2,9
13 Taedong-gang
200
1982
2
14 Mirim
32
1980
2
15 Ponhwa
321983
2
16 Hwan-gang
20
198?
2
17 Tonhwa
20198?
2
18 T’aep’enmang
90
1989
2,6
19 Weewong
200
1989
2,10
20 Nam-gang
200
1994
2
21 Dokro river
36
2,8
TOTAL OF LISTED PLANTS

3,307

HYDRO GENERATING FACILITIES REPORTEDLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
OR RECENTLY COMPLETED AS OF 1996#

Name
1 Taechun
2 Kumgang Mountain
3 Sodusu-4
4 Namkang
5 Youngwon
6 Ehrangcheon
7 Jabgjakang
8 P’och’on
9 Oranch’on
10 Heech’on
11 Kymyan-gang

TOTAL OF LISTED PLANTS

Capacity
(MW)
750
800
200
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
240
820
180
Unknown
Unknown

Year
Year
StartedCompleted
1983
1985 1996 (1st Phase)
1990
1983
1986
1986

1989

2,990

PARTIAL LISTING OF SUBSTATIONS IN THE DPRKCapacity
#
Name
MVA
Units
1 Changjingang
48 1x28, 1x20
2 Chongjin
165 1x100, 1x5, 1x60
3 Pyongyang No. 2
100 2x50
4 Vynalon
200 2x50, 1x100
5 Pyongyang No. 1
6 Undok
7 Munsan
8 Kilju
9 Hamhung
10 Songchon
11 Sepo12 Nampo
13 Kusong
14 Sinuiju
15 Pyongsong
16 Sin-Anju

Sources/Notes:
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

A1- 221

Sources/Notes:
2, 8, 15
2,8,13,16
2
13
13
13
13
2
2
2
2

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
LISTING OF PROVINCIAL CONTROL CENTERS FOR THE DPRK T&D GRID
Source 1#

Name
Location (city)
1 North Kamgyong Chongzin
2 Ryanggang
Hyesan3 Chagang
Kanggye
4 South Hamgyong Hamhung
5 South Pyongan Pyongsong
6 Kangwon
Wonsan7 North Hwanghae Sariwon
8 NampoNampo
9 South Hwanghae Haeju
10 Kaesong
Kaesong
11 North Pyongan
SinijuAnnual Load Curve for 1989
(Source 1)
MonthLoad (MW)
0
9900
1
9950
2
10000
3
9100
4
9900
5
10100
6
10250
7
10500
8
10000
9
9900
10
10000
11
10200
12
10200

Daily Load Curve for August, 1990
(Source 1)
Time
Load (MW)
0:00
8000
1:00
8000
2:00
8500
3:00
8500
4:00
9000
5:00
9550
6:00
9900
7:00
10200
8:00
9500
9:00
9750
10:00
10000
11:00
10000
12:00
8750
13:00
9900
14:00
10100
15:00
10200
16:00
10500
17:00
10250
18:00
10250
19:00
10500
20:00
10600
21:00
10500
22:00
9900
23:00
8200
0:00
8000

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Annual Peak Load Curve for the NP: 1989
10500

10000

10000

Peak Load (MW)Peak Load (MW)Annual Peak Load Curve for the DPRK: 1989
10500

9500
9000
8500

9500
9000
8500

8000

8000
0

1

2

3

0

4

5

6

Months

7

8

9

10

11

12

Hourly Load Curve for the DPRK: August, 1990

10000

Load (MW)

10000

Load (MW)

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Hourly Load Curve for the NP: August, 1990
12000

6000

2

Months

12000

8000

1

8000
6000

4000

4000

2000

2000

0

0

A1- 223

12

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Documents in authors' files [EP1, EE1]
2 Moiseyev, V. (1996), The Electric Energy Sector of the DPRK .
Paper presented at the work shop on "Security on the Korean Peninsula," November 21, 1996,
Diplomatic Academy, Moscow, sponsored by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies (with funding from the Rock efeller Foundation).
3 Source 1 reports 50 MW of East Pyongyang plant completed in 1992. Source 2 suggeststhat the ultimate capacity of the plant will be (or was to have been) 400 MW
4 Source 2 lists the "Supun" plant as having a total capacity of 735 MW, with 210 MW of that capacity
used to produce power for China.
5 Source 2 lists this plant as having a total capacity of 400 MW, with 200 MW going to China.
6 Source 2 lists this plant as having a total capacity of 190 MW, with 100 MW going to China.
7 Source 1 lists the in-service date of the Buk chang station as 1973. This may be the in-service
date for the first of the units. (Plant name may also be translated as "Puk chang".)
8 Choi Su Young (1993), Study of the Present State of Energy Supply in North Korea, Research Institute for
National Unification (RINU), Seoul, (ROK).
9 Source 8 lists the total capacity of the three phases of the Sodusu plant at 510 MW. Source 17 lists theplant capacity as 420 MW.
10 Source 2 lists this plant as having a total capacity of 390 MW, with 190 MW going to China.
11 Capacity listed by source 8 as 226 MW
12 Source 8 seems to indicate that this plant will be associated with an industrial facility mak ing vinalon.
13 Dongseok Roh, Electricity Policy Division, Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI). PersonalCommunication, 1996.
14 This plant may well be the same as the project listed by source 2 as "Hamhyng central".
15 Source 8 lists the total capacity of this project at 800 MW. Source 13 describes the "first phase"as having a capacity of 660 MW.
16 Source 2 lists the capacity of this project at 810 MW. The first phase of the project, reportedly in therange of 100 to 200 MW, was reportedly brought on line in late 1996.
17 UNDP (1994), Studies in Support of Tumen River Area Development Programme. Prepared by KIEP,
Seoul, ROK for the UNDP, July, 1994.
18 According to one report, the East Pyongyang power plant was built to use lignite coal of relatively low
heating value (2000 - 3000 k cal/k g).
19 Document in Authors' files [ELE-93] lists capacity for this plant, which perhaps was to havebeen associated with a nearby cement plant, of 11 MW. Its construction was reportedly postponed as of1994.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN 1996 THROUGH 2020
Prepared by David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

5/15/2020

ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 1996

Electricity Generating Capacity as of 1990 (MW)
Estimated Gross Generation in 1990 (GWHe)
Implied Capacity Factor, 1990
Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 1996 (MW):Average 1996 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 1996 (GWHe)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
Fraction of 1990 Exports to China in 1996
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1996 (GJ)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 1996
Fuel Input to generation, 1996 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 1996 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 1996 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 1996
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 1996
Emergency Losses, 1996 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 1996
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 1996 (GJ)

Hydro Plants
4,500
2.129E+04
54.0%
-3250
90%
5.322E+03
0.00E+00
0%
0.00E+00
100%
1.92E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.30%
5.75E+040%05.306E+03
23.10%
1.66E+07

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
3,200
200
4
2.34E+04 1.280E+03 Based on 1990 est.
83.6%
73.1%
50
0
5
69.80%
71.2%
3
1.661E+04 9.114E+02
Does not include output ofSupung hydro plants
controlled by China
27.0%
28.00%
2
2.21E+08
1.17E+07
6.20%
100%
1
1.37E+07
1.17E+07
1.69E+04
9.00%
8.00% Based on 1990 est.
5.38E+06
2.62E+05
7.5%
0% 50% higher than 1990
4.48E+06
0
1.387E+04 8.385E+02 for use in LEAP
50% higher than 1990

ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2000

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2000 (MW):Average 2000 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2000 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2000
Fuel Input to generation, 2000 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2000 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2000 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
2000 Exports to China (GWh)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2000 (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2000
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2000
Emergency Losses, 2000 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2000
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2000 (GJ)

Hydro Plants
-1400
71%
1.047E+04
100%
3.77E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
22.66
8.16E+04
0.00E+00
0.30%
1.13E+05
0%01.044E+04
27.72%
1.27E+07

A1- 225

Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8 Total capacity, not just operable
10.8%
8.57% CF based on total capacity
2.641E+03 1.480E+02
21.0%
20.54%
4.53E+07
2.59E+06
28.36%
100%
1.28E+07
2.59E+06
7.71E+05
Excluding Chinese-controlled
Based on reported exports

9.00%
8.56E+05
9.4%
8.91E+05
2.156E+03

8.00% Same as in 1990
4.26E+04
0% 30% higher than in 1996
01.362E+02 for use in LEAP
20% higher than 1996

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2005 (MW):Average 2005 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2005 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2005
Fuel Input to generation, 2005 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2005 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2005 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants-383.657.24%
1.1146E+04
100%
4.01E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

2005 Exports to China (GWh)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2005 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2005
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

90.15
3.25E+05
0.30%
1.20E+05
2.37E+03

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2005
Emergency Losses, 2005 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)

0.00E+00
2.62E+05
2.65E+05
0%01.111E+04

Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2005
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2005 (GJ)

27.72%
1.55E+07

Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
21.00%
10% See Note 12
5.1511E+03 1.727E+02
21.0%
21.00%
8.83E+07
2.96E+06
3.59%
100%
3.17E+06
2.96E+06
8.91E+05
Excluding Chinese-controlled
Based on reported exports.
See Note 11
9.00%
1.67E+06

8.00% Same as in 1990
4.97E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 8

9%1.67E+06
4.224E+03

0% 25% higher than in 1996
01.589E+02 for use in LEAP
20% higher than in 1996;
See Note 9

Average
Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Efficiency
100.00
9.7%
22% All rough assumptions;
Implied (Net)
ImpliedGeneration
ImpliedDiesel Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
see Note 16
8.50E+04
3.06E+05
1.39E+06

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2008

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2008 (MW):Average 2008 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2008 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2008
Fuel Input to generation, 2008 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2008 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2008 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants-255.46
58.89%
1.183E+04
100%
4.26E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2008
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2008 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2008
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

143.54
5.17E+05
0.30%
1.28E+05
6.46E+04

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2008
Emergency Losses, 2008 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2008
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2008 (GJ)

0.00E+00
8.09E+05
8.74E+05
0%01.179E+04
27.72%
1.61E+07

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel
On-site generation with Gasoline generators

DieselGasoline

Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
20.86%
10% See Note 14
5.117E+03 1.727E+02
1.7116E+04
21.0%
21.00%
8.77E+07
2.96E+06
8.92%
100%
7.82E+06
2.96E+06
0.00E+00
Excluding Chinese-controlled
Based on reported exports.
See Note 11
9.00%
1.66E+06

8.00%
4.97E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 8

9%1.66E+06
4.196E+030%01.589E+02 for use in LEAP
Based on 1990 est.

Average
Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Efficiency
155.00
8.5%
22% All rough assumptions;
6.00
2%
12% see Notes 16 and 17
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
1.154E+05
4.15E+05
1.89E+06
1.051E+03
3.78E+03
3.15E+04.
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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2005 (MW):Average 2005 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2005 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2005
Fuel Input to generation, 2005 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2005 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2005 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants-383.657.24%
1.1146E+04
100%
4.01E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

2005 Exports to China (GWh)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2005 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2005
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

90.15
3.25E+05
0.30%
1.20E+05
2.37E+03

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2005
Emergency Losses, 2005 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)

0.00E+00
2.62E+05
2.65E+05
0%01.111E+04

Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2005
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2005 (GJ)

27.72%
1.55E+07

Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
21.00%
10% See Note 12
5.1511E+03 1.727E+02
21.0%
21.00%
8.83E+07
2.96E+06
3.59%
100%
3.17E+06
2.96E+06
8.91E+05
Excluding Chinese-controlled
Based on reported exports.
See Note 11
9.00%
1.67E+06

8.00% Same as in 1990
4.97E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 8

9%1.67E+06
4.224E+03

0% 25% higher than in 1996
01.589E+02 for use in LEAP
20% higher than in 1996;
See Note 9

Average
Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Efficiency
100.00
9.7%
22% All rough assumptions;
Implied (Net)
ImpliedGeneration
ImpliedDiesel Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
see Note 16
8.50E+04
3.06E+05
1.39E+06

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2008

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2008 (MW):Average 2008 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2008 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2008
Fuel Input to generation, 2008 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2008 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2008 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants-255.46
58.89%
1.183E+04
100%
4.26E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2008
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2008 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2008
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

143.54
5.17E+05
0.30%
1.28E+05
6.46E+04

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2008
Emergency Losses, 2008 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2008
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2008 (GJ)

0.00E+00
8.09E+05
8.74E+05
0%01.179E+04
27.72%
1.61E+07

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel
On-site generation with Gasoline generators

DieselGasoline

Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
20.86%
10% See Note 14
5.117E+03 1.727E+02
1.7116E+04
21.0%
21.00%
8.77E+07
2.96E+06
8.92%
100%
7.82E+06
2.96E+06
0.00E+00
Excluding Chinese-controlled
Based on reported exports.
See Note 11
9.00%
1.66E+06

8.00%
4.97E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 8

9%1.66E+06
4.196E+030%01.589E+02 for use in LEAP
Based on 1990 est.

Average
Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Efficiency
155.00
8.5%
22% All rough assumptions;
6.00
2%
12% see Notes 16 and 17
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
1.154E+05
4.15E+05
1.89E+06
1.051E+03
3.78E+03
3.15E+04

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2010

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2010 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2010 (GWHe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2010
Fuel Input to generation, 2010 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2010 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2010 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2010
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2010 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2010
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

Hydro Plants-179.158.25%
1.191E+04
100%
4.29E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
151.71
5.46E+05
0.30%
1.29E+05
1.20E+04

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2010
Emergency Losses, 2010 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2010
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2010 (GJ)

0.00E+00
1.04E+06
1.05E+06
0%0
1.187E+04
27.72%
1.48E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2010 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel
On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
14.0%
8% See Notes 13, 15
3.437E+03 1.381E+02
21.0%
21.00%
5.89E+07
2.37E+06
2.00%
100%
1.18E+06
2.37E+06
9.72E+03

9.00%
1.11E+06

8.00%
3.98E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.11E+06
2.818E+030%01.271E+02 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Efficiency
250.0010%
23% All rough assumptions;
32.00
1.6%
12% see Notes 16 and 17
0.51
11.0%
100% See Note 18
0.50
4.2%
100% See Note 20
0.04
25.0%
100% See Note 19
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
2.190E+05
7.88E+05
3.43E+06
4.485E+03
1.61E+04
1.35E+05
4.879E+02
1.76E+03
1.76E+03
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
8.278E+01
2.98E+02
2.98E+02

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ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2014

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2014 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2014 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2014
Fuel Input to generation, 2014 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2014 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2014 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2014
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2014 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2014
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

Hydro Plants
215.9
47.31%
1.056E+04
100%
3.80E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
222.438.01E+05
0.30%
1.14E+05
1.67E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2014
Emergency Losses, 2014 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2014
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2014 (GJ)

0.00E+00
1.26E+06
1.43E+06
0%01.052E+04
27.72%
1.55E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2014 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
24.3%
7% See Notes 13, 15
5.967E+03 1.209E+02
21.0%
21.00%
1.02E+08
2.07E+06
1.84%
100%
1.88E+06
2.07E+06
6.91E+04
From Comtrade Database
9.00%
1.93E+06

See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.93E+06
4.893E+03

607.37

On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

0%0
1.112E+02 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

8.00%
3.48E+04

9.5%

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
See Notes 16 and 17 for
25% capacity estimates, othersrough assumptions (diesel
use somewhat lower than in
13% 2010);
100% See Note 18
100% See Note 20
100% See Note 19

197.25
2.0%
10.42
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
0.66
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
5.055E+05
1.82E+06
7.28E+06
3.456E+04
1.24E+05
9.57E+05
1.000E+04
3.60E+04
3.60E+04
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
1.439E+03
5.18E+03
5.18E+03

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2015

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2015 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2015 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2015
Fuel Input to generation, 2015 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2015 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2015 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2015
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2015 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2015
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

Hydro Plants
280.9
49.65%
1.123E+04
100%
4.04E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
118.74
4.27E+05
0.30%
1.21E+05
1.64E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2015
Emergency Losses, 2015 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2015
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2015 (GJ)

0.00E+00
1.58E+06
1.74E+06
0%01.120E+04
27.72%
1.54E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2015 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150
69.8
20.7%
7% See Notes 13, 15
5.080E+03 1.209E+02
21.0%
21.00%
8.71E+07
2.07E+06
1.94%
100%
1.69E+06
2.07E+06
8.10E+03
From Comtrade Database
9.00%
1.65E+06

See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.65E+06
4.166E+03

On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

0%0
1.112E+02 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor
789.91
10.5%

On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

8.00%
3.48E+04

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
26% See Notes 16 and 17 forcapacity estimates, othersrough assumptions (diesel
use somewhat higher than in
14% 2010);
100% See Note 18
100% See Note 20
100% See Note 19

315.59
4.0%
19.28
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
0.79
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
7.266E+05
2.62E+06
1.01E+07
1.106E+05
3.98E+05
2.84E+06
1.851E+04
6.66E+04
6.66E+04
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
1.729E+03
6.23E+03
6.23E+03

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2016
Sources/Notes:
Hydro Plants

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2016 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2016 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2016
Fuel Input to generation, 2016 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2016 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2016 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2016
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2016 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2016
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

345.9
50.02%
1.147E+04
100%
4.13E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
167.23
6.02E+05
0.30%
1.24E+05
1.14E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2016
Emergency Losses, 2016 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2016
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2016 (GJ)

0.00E+00
1.93E+05
3.07E+05
0%01.143E+04
27.72%
1.60E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2016 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Coal Plants

150
22.2%
5.437E+03
21.0%
9.32E+07
1.915%
1.78E+06
2.68E+04

898.37

On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

Sonbong plant convered to-130.2 coal use (but not completed)
25% See Notes 13, 15
1.117E+02
21.00%
1.91E+06
100%
1.91E+06

From Comtrade Database
9.00%
1.76E+06

8.00%
3.22E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 8

9%1.76E+06
4.458E+030%01.027E+02 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor
On-site generation with Diesel FuelHFO Plants

12.6%

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
See Notes 16 and 17 forcapacity estimates, others
15% rough assumptions
100% See Note 18
100% See Note 20
100% See Note 1927%

373.16
3.4%
31.25
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
0.97
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
9.916E+05
3.57E+06
1.32E+07
1.111E+05
4.00E+05
2.67E+06
3.000E+04
1.08E+05
1.08E+05
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
2.128E+03
7.66E+03
7.66E+03

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2017

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2017 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2017 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2017
Fuel Input to generation, 2017 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2017 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2017 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2017
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2017 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2017
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

Hydro Plants
420.9
44.34%
1.032E+04
100%
3.72E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
269.28
9.69E+05
0.30%
1.11E+05
7.17E+04

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2017
Emergency Losses, 2017 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2017
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2017 (GJ)

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.17E+04
0%01.029E+04
27.72%
1.46E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2017 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150-130.2
21.6%
8% See Notes 13, 15
5.292E+03 3.574E+01
21.0%
21.00%
9.07E+07
6.13E+05
1.237%
100%
1.12E+06
6.13E+05
1.41E+04
From Comtrade Database
9.00%
1.71E+06

8.00%
1.03E+04
See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.71E+06
4.340E+030%03.288E+01 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
See Notes 16 and 17 forOn-site generation with Diesel Fuel965.75On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

6.0%

27% capacity estimates, othersrough assumptions. Diesel
use down relative to 2016
due to lower availability,
15% better grid electricity.
100% See Note 18
100% See Note 20
100% See Note 19

404.05
3.5%
46.10
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
1.15
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
5.076E+05
1.83E+06
6.77E+06
1.242E+05
4.47E+05
2.98E+06
4.425E+04
1.59E+05
1.59E+05
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
2.527E+03
9.10E+03
9.10E+03

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2018

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2018 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2018 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2018
Fuel Input to generation, 2018 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2018 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2018 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)
GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2018
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2018 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2018
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

Hydro Plants
460.9
44.68%
1.049E+04
100%
3.77E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00
279.35
1.01E+06
0.30%
1.13E+05
4.01E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2018
Emergency Losses, 2018 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2018
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2018 (GJ)

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.01E+05
0%01.045E+04
27.72%
1.40E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2018 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150-130.2
17.7%
8% See Notes 13, 15
4.341E+03 3.574E+01
21.0%
21.00%
7.44E+07
6.13E+05
1.87%
100%
1.39E+06
6.13E+05
5.91E+03
From Comtrade Database
9.00%
1.41E+06

See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.41E+06
3.559E+03

974.72On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

0%0
3.288E+01 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor
On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

8.00%
1.03E+04

5.92%

GJ
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
27% See Notes 16 and 17 forcapacity estimates, others
15% rough assumptions
100% See Notes 18, 24
100% See Note 20
100% See Notes 19, 24

408.55
3.54%
62.19
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
1.33
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
5.055E+05
1.82E+06
6.74E+06
1.267E+05
4.56E+05
3.04E+06
5.971E+04
2.15E+05
2.15E+05
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
2.921E+03
1.05E+04
1.05E+04

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2019

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2019 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2019 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2019
Fuel Input to generation, 2019 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2019 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2019 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants
490.9
44.83%
1.059E+04
100%
3.81E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2019
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2019 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2019
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

279.35
1.01E+06
0.30%
1.14E+05
1.72E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2019
Emergency Losses, 2019 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2019
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2019 (GJ)

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.72E+050%01.055E+04
27.72%
1.41E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2019 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150-130.2
17.7%
8% See Notes 13, 15
4.341E+03 3.574E+01
21.0%
21.00%
7.44E+07
6.13E+05
1.85%
100%
1.38E+06
6.13E+05
5.91E+03
Assumes same as recorded
value for 2018
9.00%
1.41E+06

See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%1.41E+06
3.559E+03

981.46

On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

0%0
3.288E+01 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor
On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

8.00%
1.03E+04

6.7%

GJ
See Note 27
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
27% See Notes 16 and 17 forcapacity estimates, others
15% rough assumptions
100% See Notes 18, 24
100% See Note 20
100% See Notes 19, 24

411.64
3.50%
78.19
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
1.51
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
5.760E+05
2.07E+06
7.68E+06
1.262E+05
4.54E+05
3.03E+06
7.507E+04
2.70E+05
2.70E+05
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
3.315E+03
1.19E+04
1.19E+04

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2020

Changes in Capacity, 1990 to 2020 (MW):Average 2010 Capacity Factor Relative to 1990 Est.
Estimated Gross Generation in 2020 (GWhe)
Gross Generation Efficiency, 2020
Fuel Input to generation, 2020 (GJ)
Fraction of fuel input as HFOHFO Input to generation, 2020 (GJ)
Other Petrol Products (tires) input to gen., 2020 (GJ)
Estimated Power Exports to China, 1990 (GJ)

Hydro Plants
510.9
44.96%
1.066E+04
100%
3.84E+07
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.00E+00

GWhe Electricity Exports to China in 2020
Estimated Power Exports to China, 2020 (GJ)
Own Use Fractions, 2020
Own Use of Electricity (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from China (GJ)

279.35
1.01E+06
0.30%
1.15E+05
1.72E+05

Imports of Electricity from Russia (GJ)
Imports of Electricity from ROK (GJ)
Total Electricity Imports (GJ)
"Emergency Loss" Fractions, 2020
Emergency Losses, 2020 (GJ)
Implied Net Electricity Output (GWhe)
Transmission and Distribution Loss rate (overall), 2020
Transmission and Distribution Losses, 2020 (GJ)

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.72E+05
0%01.063E+04
27.72%
1.27E+07

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2020 (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically
Implied Nuclear Fuel Use (GJ) at assumed efficiency of

0
70%
7%
95%
5%
5%
33%

Sources/Notes:
Coal Plants HFO Plants
150-130.2
10.5%
8% See Notes 13, 15
2.578E+03 3.574E+01
21.0%
21.00%
4.42E+07
6.13E+05
2.80%
100%
1.24E+06
6.13E+05
5.91E+03
Assumes same as recorded
value for 2018
9.00%
8.35E+05

See Note 10
Discussions, but noevidence of transfers as yet
For Kaesong; See Note 89%8.35E+05
2.114E+03

982.81

On-site generation with Gasoline generators
On-site generation with Solar PV Panels
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

DieselGasoline
Solar PV
Tidal Power Generation
Wind power generation

0%0
3.288E+01 for use in LEAP6GWhe
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Average
Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor
On-site generation with Diesel Fuel

8.00%
1.03E+04

6.1%

GJ
See Note 27
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
Average
Efficiency
27% See Notes 16 and 17 forcapacity estimates, others
15% rough assumptions
100% See Notes 18, 24
100% See Note 20
100% See Notes 19, 24

412.26
4.50%
86.19
11.0%
0.50
4.2%
1.59
25.0%
Implied (Net)
Generation
ImpliedImplied Fuel
(MWh)Generation (GJ) Use (GJ)
5.252E+05
1.89E+06
7.00E+06
1.625E+05
5.85E+05
3.90E+06
8.275E+04
2.98E+05
2.98E+05
1.823E+02
6.56E+02
6.56E+02
3.473E+03
1.25E+04
1.25E+04

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Calculations of expected exports from Simpo Reactors if built
Nuclear Generating Capacity when/if built (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants

1050
70%
7%

GWHe
GJ
6.439E+03 2.32E+07
4.507E+02 1.62E+06

Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports

90%
5%5.389E+03 1.94E+07
2.695E+02 9.70E+05

Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically

10%

5.988E+02 2.16E+06

Nuclear Generating Capacity as of 2nd unit completion (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants
Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically

2100
70%
7%
90%
5%
10%

GWHe
GJ
1.288E+04 4.64E+07
9.014E+02 3.25E+06
1.078E+04 3.88E+07
5.389E+02 1.94E+06
1.198E+03 4.31E+06

Nuclear Generating Capacity 10 years later (MWe)Ave. Capacity Fact., Nuclear Plants (Gross Generation)
Own Use of Electricity at Nuclear Plants

2100
85%
7%

GWHe
GJ
1.564E+04 5.63E+07
1.095E+03 3.94E+06

Net Nuclear Generation Exported
Transmission and Distribution Losses, Exports
Net Nuclear Generation Used Domestically

75%
5%
25%

1.091E+04 3.93E+07
5.453E+02 1.96E+06
3.636E+03 1.31E+07

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Rough estimates of cost of generation for small generators (in 2017)

Fuel Cost ($/kg)
Efficiency
Generation per
kg fuel (kWh)Implied fuel cost$/kWh
Average annual
Generation per
Unit (kWh)Implied annual
average fuelcosts
Assumed Unit
Lifetime (years)
AssumedAnnual Interest/
Discount Rate
Estimated
cost/kW
AssumedCapacity Factor
ImpliedAnnualized
Capital Cost($/kW-yr)
Annualized
Capital Cost,$/kWh

Diesel$$$$Gasoline
0.85 $
27%

Solar PV
1.24 N/A
15% N/AWind power
N/A
N/A

3.241

1.832 N/A

N/A

0.262 $

0.677 N/A

N/A

23

Fort diesel, smaller-size
category for 2018 (60 k W) is
assumed31,536

3,022 N/A

N/A

8,272 $

2,046 N/A

N/A

20

12

15

20

15%

15%

15%

15%

76.23 $

70.83 $

638.83 $632.03

6%

3.5%

11.0%

25.0%

$15.83$16.99$142.03$131.27$0.030$0.055$0.148$0.060Assumed Wholesale (import cost) to retail mark-up:

Conversion Factor:
Conversion Factor:

30%

1.000 N/A
41.87 GJ/toe

N/A
Sources/Notes:

Plant
Pyongyang
as start-up fuelas supplement
Ch'ongjin
Pukchang
SunchonEast-Pyongyang
TOTAL

Rating (MWe)
500
500
150
1600
200
150
2600

Assumed Gross
Generation Eff.
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
30%

Implied Max.
Max. Listed
fuel use (GJ/mo.) HFO (te/mo.)
4.87E+06
4.87E+06
1.46E+06
1.56E+07
1.95E+06
1.31E+06
2.52E+07

Max.
Fract. HFO

2,500
17,00010,00020,0002,000
3,000
52,0002.15%
14.63%
28.68%
5.38%
4.30%
9.56%
8.65%

1
1
1
1
1
1
2

Back-up Calculation: Actual KEDO Fuel Input to Power Facilities in 1996 (11/95 through 10/96)
Chongjin
3,755 tePyongyang
44,842 te
Pukchang
20,065 te
Estimated KEDO HFO used, nominally coal-fired plants:
Estimated KEDO HFO used, nominally coal-fired plants:
Sonbong279,891 te
Estimated KEDO HFO used, Sonbong oil-fired plant:
Implied average capacity factor at Sonbong plant, 1996:

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3
3
68,662 te
2.87E+06 GJ
3
1.17E+07 GJ
52.0%

4

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Assumes start-up and fuel supplement use of HFO in coal plants at over 6 percent of total thermal input.
2 Hydro set at 100 percent for accounting purposes. Coal and oil as described in estimates made for 1990,
except efficiency reduced to reflect deterioration of infrastructure.
3 Figures of 75 percent and 100 percent of 1990 capacity factors for oil-fired plants and hydroelectric plants are assumptions.
Factor for coal-fired stations is used to balance demand with net generation.
4 Assumes 90 percent of UN (1992 Energy Statistics Yearbook ) estimate of 5000 MW hydro (thus we use 4500 MW hydro)
and estimates 3500 MW thermal. For reference, the sum of the capacitiesof the seven largest thermal plants was reported to be 2900 MW. There is by at least one report of one other oil-fired,grid-connected plant in addition to Sonbong, but other reports state that the plant at Sonbong is the
only active oil-fired plant of any size in the DPRK--which has been our work ing assumption.
5 Information from one source is that "one or two" "small to medium" (less than 10 MW) hydro plants were damaged in
the floods of 1995 and 1996. Another source states that there has without doubt been substantial flood damage, including
reservoir siltation and other problems. We assume that the net impact of flood damage and opening of a newhydro facility at Kumgang Mountain has been the effective reduction in hydro capacity shown.
For thermal facilities, we assume (and have been told) that the addition of one 50 MW unit of the
150 MW plant under construction at East Pyongyang is the only recent major change.
6 Assumes a slight improvement as a result, for example, of lessons learned in ongoing UNDP program.
7 Year 2000 losses assumed to be an additional 5 percent higher than in 1996, due to continuing deterioration ofelectricity transmission and distribution system. Year 2005 losses assumed to be about the same as in2000, as improvement of grids in some areas with improving economies is balanced by continued deterioration inother areas.

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8 Electricity exports from the ROK to the Kaesong (Gaesung) industrial region of the DPRK started from about mid-March, 2005,
over a line with a capacity of
15 MW. Assuming an average capacity factor of
70% (rough estimate, based on consideration of baseload power needs of industry, and seconded by ROK
experts) for the supplies to this industrial area, and that supplies were available for 9 months of 2005, implied
exports of power from the ROK to the DPRK during 2005 were about
72.82 GWh.
Capacity of line from ROK from several sources, including KERI ("Analysis of Present Status and Future
Supply /Demand Prospects for the DPRK Power System", by J.Y. Yoon, presented at the DPRK Energy
Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Yoon's
presentation is avaialble as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Papers/Yoon.ppt.
We assume that the power line to Kaesong operated at the same capacity factor estimated above for thefull 12 months of 2006, implying energy provision of
97.09 GWh.
A sample of the news reports on the initiation of power flows from the ROK to the DPRK is
Agence France-Presse (AFP), dated: 16 Mar 2005, "South Korea supplies power to North for first time in five decades".
Accessed at http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/KHII-6AJ9J5?OpenDocument.
In mid-2007, a second, larger power connection to the Kaesong area was completed. This line, capableof carrying
100 MW, would, at the same
70% capacity factor assumed above,
have potential output on the order of613.2 GWh/yr.
(Data on line capacity and date from Congressional Research Serice, The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial Complex ,by Dick K. Nanto and Mark E. Manyin, dated June 1, 2010,
and available as www.opencrs.com/document/RL34093/2010-06-01/download/1013/.
An article quoting the KEPCO manager of the power line running into Kaesong, however, indicates that while the capacityof the substation feeding Kaeosong is 100 MW, the power delivered to Kaesong averaged 30 to 50 MW, presumably in early2013 when the complex was operating at a "normal" level (see, for example, Kang Tae-ho and Ha Eo-young, "Electricity use at Kaesong
hums along at bare minimum", The Hankyoreh, dated, May.7,2013 , and available as http://english.hani.co.k r/arti/english_edition/e_northk orea/586276.html.
The total value of goods from the Kaesong complex was
251.4 million USD in 2008, and
256.5 million USD in 2009, up from
14.9 million USD in 2005 (source, Nanto and Manyin).
In 2010, the value of goods from the Kaesong complex was
323.3 million USD (source,
Congressional Research Service, The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial Complex ,by Dick K. Nanto and Mark E. Manyin, dated April 18, 2011, and available as http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34093.pdf)
More than half of this output value was from textile/apparel firms. In the ROK in 2007, the approximate electricity intensityof the textile industry was
1.379 k cal per ROK Won, or about
1.67 k Wh per USD
This would imply electricity consumption at Kaesong of about
419.44 GWh in 2008,
427.95 GWh in 2009, and539.40 GWh in 2010. These figures are rough estimates, but close enoughto the capacity of the line to be plausible. The ROK textile industry, however, is probably more energy-intensive on average than the
textile industry in Kaesong, since the latter is mostly smaller businesses involved in assembling garments, not, for example, in mak ing
cloth or fiber. We therefore assume that, based on news reports above, the average capacity factor for the 100 MW substation
providing power to the complex was
33% in 2010, and estimate electricity use based on
the reported value of output (although this is not ideal, as output value is an indirect measure of required energy input at best)and estimate electricity delivery from the ROK to Kaesong accordingly.
In 2007, we assume that total electricity provision over the 15 and then 100 MW lines were mid-way between the totals
estimated to be provided in 2006 and 2008, or
193.09 GWh.
In 2008, based on the output above, we estimate the electricity provision to Kaesong at
224.79 GWh, with
2009 electricity use estimated at229.35 GWh, and2010 electricity use estimated at289.08 GWh.

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In 2014, the value of the output of the Kaesong industrial complex was reported as$470 million
by Kim Myong-song in "Output at Kaesong Soars Despite Friction" in Chosonilbo dated July 10, 2015, andavailable as http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2015/07/10/2015071000808.html.
Adjusting this value downward somehat to account for the difference in exchange rates between the ROK Won and USD
in 2014 versus 2010 (roughly
10% based on Xe.com data), and USD inflation between 2010 and 2014about
9% yields an equivalent output in 2014 of$
391.99 million, which suggests that
ROK electricity provision to Kaesong in 2014 might have been in the range of
350.50 GWh,
In 2015, the value of the output of the Kaesong industrial complex was reported as$563.3 million
by "KH Digital 2" in "Kaesong industrial park output reached $3.23 bln in 11 years of operation: white paper" in The Korea Herald
dated May 12, 2016, and available as http://www.k oreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160512000863.
Adjusting this value downward somehat to account for the difference in exchange rates between the ROK Won and USD
in 2015 versus 2010 (roughly
5% based on Xe.com data), and USD inflation between 2010 and 2014about
9.5% yields an equivalent output in 2014 of$
489.93 million, which suggests that
ROK electricity provision to Kaesong in 2015 might have been in the range of
438.08 GWh,
In 2016, ROK electricity supplies to the Kaesong industrial complex were cut off on approximately February 11(see, for example, NK Economy Watch, "Archive for the ‘Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC)’ Category", available
as http://www.nk econwatch.com/category/economic-reform/special-economic-zones/k aesong-industrial-park /. No figures
Based on data from "North Korea in the World", available as https://www.northk oreaintheworld.org/inter-k orean/k aesong-industrial-complex,
DPRK trade volume associated with Kaesong (imports plus exports) fell from about$
2.70 billion in 2015 toabout$
0.33 billion in 2016, meaning 2016 trade was about
12% of 2015, which is roughly
consistent with the fraction of the year that Kaesong operated in that year. We therefore assume that this fraction also applies
to the relative amount of electricity used in (and exported by the ROK to) Kaesong in the two years, thus 2016 export
from the ROK to Kaesong (and thus the DPRK in total) are estimated at
53.54 GWh,
The Kaesong complex has been closed since early 2016, though apparently some services, including water, were restored in
2018. We assume that in 2017 through 2020, the complex did not/will not receive any electricity from the ROK (0 GWh.)
As of 2019/2020, the reopening of the complex is under discussion. See, for example, Hank yoreh, dated June 13, 2019,"Kaesong Industrial Complex business owners visit Washington to argue for complex’s reopening",
available as http://english.hani.co.k r/arti/english_edition/e_northk orea/897775.html, andElizabeth Shim (2020), "South Koreans call for reopening of Kaesong Industrial Complex", UPI , March 16, 2020,
available as https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/16/South-Koreans-call-for-reopening-of-Kaesong-Industrial-Complex/2781584370425/.

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9 The presentation by Dr. Yoon referenced in Note 9, above, estimates DPRK transmission and distribution losses
at "about 20%" and "above 20%". Other, anecdotal estimates of losses, particularly in areas away from large cities,
suggest that losses could be considerably higher. The value used for this analysis for 2000 and 2005 is
intended as a rough weighted average.
10 China Customs Statistics from World Trade Atlas lists 2005 exports of electricity from China to the DPRK as
657,068 k Wh. As compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
Electricity exports from the DPRK to China, as indicated by the same source and updates in 2008 and 2010, are as follows for otheryears throiugh 2009, after 2009 data are from the UN Comtrade database:
Year
kWh
$/MWh
1999
115,200
2000
2001
63,250
2002
8,845,890
2003
11,107,121
2004
8,568,657
2005
657,0682006
1,178,774
2007
1,710,409
2008
17,937,327
2009
6,896,090
2010
3,345,000
2011
11,366,000 $116.63
2012
13,146,000 $121.272013
15,420,000 $122.482014
46,421,000 $106.47
2015
45,583,000$
107.83
2016
31,804,000$
100.242017
3,160,000
$
41.84
2018
111,306,000
$
3.42
2019
47,654,800
Assumed same as2018
47,654,800
average 2014-2018
Average from 2002:
19,908,961
Average from 2014:
47,654,800 $71.96
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11 From China Customs Statistics; see "ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005" Work sheet in this work book , Note 2.
12 Output from hydroelectric plants based on data and assumptions presented in "ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005 AND BEYOND"Work sheet. Output of oil-fired power plants assumes little change since 2000, and output of (mostly) coal-fired
power plants is adjusted to reach total DPRK-wide output as reported in "ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005 AND BEYOND"
work sheet by adjusting capacity factor.
13 For 2009, we assume that there was a decrease in overall gross generation approximately equal to that estimated by J.Y. Yoon in
his presentation for the 2010 Energy and Minerals Experts Work ing Group Meeting in Beijing, September 2010, "Analysis on
DPRK Power Industry & Interconnection Options". In the presentation, Yoon quotes ROK analysts as estimating that the
DPRK's generation in 2008 was
25.5 TWh, and generation in 2009 was
23.5 TWh. We do not use these absolute generation estimates, because we believe that they are
too high (Mr. Yoon agrees that a "minimum" value could be closer to 16 TWh for 2007, for which ROK analysts estimate output of
23.7 TWh), but we use a value slightly higher than the ratio of these 2009 and 2008 estimates,
94.0% , to estimate a target value for 2009 output.
The target value for overall generation is assumed to be composed of the hydroelectric output estimated for 2009 in the work sheet"Electric--2005_2008" in this work book , the oil-fired capacity estimated for 2009 as above, and the coal-fired capacity, which isestimated by difference from the target value less the output of hydroelectric and oil plants.
For 2010, reliable figures for total DPRK electricity output remain unavailable, and as a result we again use proxy values to try andestimate the electricity output in 2010 relative to 2009. The Bank of Korea, in a news release dated November 3, 2011, estimated theeconomic output of the DPRK's electricity sector to have declined by
0.80% between 2009 and 2010, stating"Electricity, gas & water production fell by 0.8% owing to a drop in thermal power generation."(press release available from (http://www.nk econwatch.com/nk -uploads/GDP_of_North_Korea_in_2010.pdf).
Given that the Bank of Korea figure is nominally a measure of economic output based, in part but not entirely, on the physical outputof the power sector, and assuming that the price of electricity (to the limited extent it is priced at all) did not go down in 2010, the implicationis that at a minimum, power output fell at least slightly in 2010 relative to 2009.
As an alternative estimate, indexmundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=k n&v=79), purportedly based on the CIA World Factbook ,provides the following listing for historical electricity production in the DPRK:Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
North Korea
31.98
28.6
33.4
30.01
30.01
33.62
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
18.75
21.71
21.72
21.72
20.9
22.5
We assume that these totals do not include on-site generation by back up diesel generators and similar devices.
This listing suggests that electricity generation in 2010 was
96.2% of that in 2009. Although the original sourcesof this estimate is not entirely clear to us, it seems consistent with anecdotal reports of the power sector in the DPRK, thus we use
this factor to scale our estimate of total DPRK power production 2010 relative to 2009.
14 As an alternative perspective on the capacity factor assumed for coal-fired thermal generation, dprk guidebook .org (probably c. 2006/7),"III - MAIN INDUSTRIAL SECTORS & BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES", available as http://dprk guidebook .org/contents_3.htm, contains thethe assertion "Around 23% of the country’s thermal ( Coal-fired ) power generation facilities are operational [and] [a]round 80% of thecountry’s hydro-electric (water-generated) power generation facilities are operational". No specific source is provided for these data, but comparing
our assumed capacity factor for coal-fired generation for 2009 (about 12 percent) with the 23 percent operable value cited by dprk guidebook
suggests a capacity factor of about 50 percent for the fraction of thermal capacity that remains operable, which seems plausible.

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15 Several sources suggest that the 200 MW oil-fired power plant associated with the oil refinery at Sonbong has operated relatively little since
the oil refinery has been off-line due to lack of crude to process (possibly compounded with maintenance issues). The oil-fired power plant
generated power when heavy fuel oil was available from KEDO and, we assume probably when HFO was shipped to the DPRK as a partof the Six-Party Talk s agreements, but absent those inputs, has probably operated little, if at all. The website NK Economy Watch, in a posting
dated November 7, 2011, under "Choson Exchange October trip findings" (available as part of http://www.nk econwatch.com/category/energy/oil/)includes the following text:"Sonbong PowerThis power plant was originally designed to take fuel oil from Victory Petrochemical as feedstock and generate power to feedback to Victory. Since the refinery has been offline, Sonbong Power has at times provided electricity to the region, but with fueloil prices close to $700/metric ton and current electricity prices at 6.5 eurocents/kwh, the economics of running the plant do notwork leaving the 800 workers employed here largely idle."
Based on this anecdotal information, we reduce the capacity factor for HFO-fired power generation in the DPRK somewhat from 2009 through 2018.
For 2017, based on the report that the Sonbong power plant was actively being refurbished to be fueled with coal instead of heavy fuel oil (SeeJoseph S. Bermudez Jr. (2017), "Conversion of North Korea’s Sonbong Thermal Electric Power Plant to Burn Coal Nears Completion",
38 North , dated December 5, 2017, and avaialble as https://www.38north.org/2017/12/sonbong120517/), we assume that the Sonbong plant
operated very little or not at all in 2017 or 2018, so we reduce the 2017/18 capacity for oil-fired power accordingly. We assume a capacity factor of
25 percent for the remaining (smaller) oil-fired units, which leaves 2017/18 oil-fired generation somewhat lower than in previous years.

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The image below is from Google Maps, coordinates 42.3279749,130.3795243, and dated February of 2019. It shows the formerly HFO-fired
plant with new coal storage and coal feed buildings and equipment in place, as well as new roofs on nearby administration buildings. There is nosmok e coming out of the stack , so it is not clear whether the plant is operating, and it is not clear whether coal was being handled in the storage
facility as yet. There are smaller piles of coal visible to the east of the plant, near a wharf (and outslde of the image below), but they
may be for a different purpose (for example, local use). Historical Google Earth Pro images show that coal handling facilities wereadded to the site in about 2015-2016.

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16 China Customs Statistics (as compiled by N. Aden, 10/2/1012) lists the following imports of diesel generators to the DPRK:
Number of Units
Value ($/million)
HS CodeDescription
2010
2011
2010
2011
850211
Dsl Genr Set=<75Kva
736
1108 $
1.834 $
2.569
850212
Dsl Gn Set>75=<375K
176
245 $
1.688 $
2.089
850213Gn Set Com-Ig>375Kv
37
27 $2.047 $
1.171
850220Sp-Ig In Com Gn Set
10152
17062 $
1.241 $
2.531
850230Oth Generating Sets00 $$850231
Wind-Powered10
7 $0.011 $
0.035
850239Other 8502
259
93 $
0.197 $
0.106
850240El Rotary Converter00 $$These values imply the following cost per unit:
HS CodeDescription
2010
2011
850211
Dsl Genr Set=<75Kva$
2,491.85 $2,318.59
850212
Dsl Gn Set>75=<375K $9,590.91 $8,526.53
850213Gn Set Com-Ig>375Kv $55,324.32 $43,370.37
850220Sp-Ig In Com Gn Set$
122.24 $148.34850230Oth Generating Sets
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
850231
Wind-Powered$
1,100.00 $5,000.00
850239Other 8502$
760.62 $
1,139.78
850240El Rotary Converter#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Assuming the following average capacity for generators in each category implies the indicated cost per kW:
Average capacity assumed
Cost per kW ($) implied
HS CodeDescription
2010
2011
2010
2011
850211
Dsl Genr Set=<75Kva
20.00
25.00 $
124.59 $92.74
850212
Dsl Gn Set>75=<375K
100.00100.00 $95.91 $
85.27
850213Gn Set Com-Ig>375Kv
500.00500.00 $110.65 $86.74
850220Sp-Ig In Com Gn Set
1.00
1.00 $
122.24 $148.34850230Oth Generating Sets
N/A
N/A
850231
Wind-Powered
1.00
5.00 $ 1,100.00 $1,000.00
850239Other 8502
N/A
N/A
850240El Rotary Converter
N/A
N/A
Based on the data/assumptions above, the Implied total capacity imported from China is:
Total capacity imported (kW)HS CodeDescription
2010
2011
850211
Dsl Genr Set=<75Kva
14,72027,700850212
Dsl Gn Set>75=<375K
17,60024,500850213Gn Set Com-Ig>375Kv
18,50013,500850220Sp-Ig In Com Gn Set
10,152
17,062850230Oth Generating Sets
850231
Wind-Powered
1035850239Other 8502
850240El Rotary Converter
Total of Diesels above
50,82065,700Total spark ignition
10,152
17,062
Total Wind
1035

A1- 245

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
From the Comtrade Database, Imports (number of units) by year, from China, were reportedly:

HS 850211,
HS 850212 (Diesel, 75 (Diesel, < 75 kW)
375 kW)

YEAR
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

289
5
26
21
21
29
131
63
422
157
142
594
185
169
324
716
736
1,108
1,143
1,259
1,883
2,955
2,006
476

54
1
4
3
8
5
40
15
33
52
38
74
66
111
92
149
176
244
371
341
509
319
805
162

2018

58

17

HS 850213(Diesel, > 375
kW)

HS 850220
HS 850231(Spark Ignition(Wind
HS 850239 (Other Generator
Units)
Power)
Sets)
9
2
1
1
3

3
6

5
4
2
1
2
6
10
18
12
37
27
24
46
61
81
45
6

56
4
43
222
264
334
425
4170
15614
10157
17,062
16,383
12,734
26,87353,29925,99812,430

27
8
10
7
175
8
75
65
127
90

0

470

0

1

2019
2020
Totals of Above
14,9183,689
394
196,553
596
Figures in red italics estimated based on reported weight of shipments (number of units not reported)2014 - 2017 Figures include shipments from other nations where applicable (but non-China volumes are very small).

A1- 246

9
259
93
1,107
847
7953
4,697 Includes other nations
223 where applicable (but non919 China volumes are small)
Zero values indicate nodata in Comtrade as of
5/5/20
Zero values indicate nodata in Comtrade as of
5/5/20
16,107Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Total Cost of Imports from China from Comtrade Database, and Implied Cost per Unit
Cost of Imports
YEAR
850211
8502128502138502202008 $
1,992,773 $
1,078,139 $
787,486 $462,4072009 $
1,083,580 $
1,695,084 $
663,922 $
1,456,146
2010 $
1,834,752 $
1,687,058 $2,047,142 $
1,238,564
2011 $
2,567,847 $
2,084,131 $
1,170,492 $2,531,289
2012 $
3,008,899 $
3,492,843 $
1,009,783 $
2,775,750
2013 $
2,929,385 $
2,743,737 $2,703,770 $
2,655,330
2014 $
3,936,437 $
3,808,660 $
2,846,269 $
4,626,594
2015 $
5,429,958 $
6,293,394 $3,557,928 $
8,758,030
2016 $
2,810,805 $
3,616,395 $
1,177,789 $
3,734,714
2017 $
2,849,095 $2,593,480 $
368,648 $2,025,047

2018 $
74,525 $Weight of Imports (kg)YEAR
850211
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
269,692
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Implied Cost per kg
YEAR
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 $
2014 $
2015 $
2016 $
20172018

363,325
499,536
293,342-

850211

10.86
10.83
10.87
9.58
#DIV/0!

56,350 $850212$850213

106,807 $
850220-206,300

153,409

1,273

385,542
615,592
393,069
297,823

227,551
276,369
100,087
34,022

321,358
529,835
256,122
122,552
5,919

14,285
7,594
8,419
5,956

850213

10.74
9.88
10.22
9.20
8.71

$
$
$
$
$

13.11
12.51
12.87
11.77
10.84

850220

$
$
$
$
$
$

17.31
14.40
16.53
14.58
16.52
18.04

850231$$$$$A1- 247

85023912.75
12.30 $
12.19 $
9.96
9.53 $

TOTAL$ 4,337,420

222,003
197,000
105,466
672,622754,501
2,083,345
1,634,075
762,353
329,636$850231

255,480

850212

$
$
$
$
$

-

850231$
16,615$9,539 $$
11,000 $$30,730 $$ 280,571 $$
16,229 $$ 175,690 $$
92,554 $$83,860 $$56,785 $-$ 5,130,274$ 7,015,516$ 8,489,955$ 11,240,468$ 11,802,952$ 17,476,995$ 25,765,939 Includes other nations$ 12,185,916 where applicable (but non$ 8,222,691 China volumes are small)$

Zero values indicate nodata in Comtrade as of
237,682 2/18/20

85023991,097
67,696 Includes other nations
where applicable (but non13,249 China volumes are small)

850239#DIV/0!
22.87
24.14#DIV/0!
24.88

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Implied Cost per Unit
YEAR
850211
850212
2008 $
6,151 $
11,7192009 $
1,513 $
11,3762010 $
2,493 $
9,586
2011 $
2,318 $
8,542
2012 $
2,632 $
9,415
2013 $
2,327 $
8,046
2014 $
2,091 $
7,483
2015 $
1,838 $
19,7292016 $
1,401 $
4,492
2017 $
5,985 $
16,0092018 $
1,285 $
3,315
Average Capacity Per Unit Assumed (kW)YEAR
850211
850212
2008
50.00
100.002009
15.00
100.002010
20.00
100.002011
25.00
100.002012
25.00
100.002013
22.00
100.002014
22.00
100.002015
20.00
260.00
2016
15.00
75.00
2017
60.00
210.00
2018
15.00
80.00
Implied Cost, $/kW
YEAR
850211
850212
2008 $
123.01 $117.192009 $
100.89 $113.762010 $
124.64 $95.86
2011 $
92.70 $
85.42
2012 $
105.30 $94.15
2013 $
105.76 $80.46
2014 $
95.04 $
74.83
2015 $
91.88 $
75.88
2016 $
93.41 $
59.90
2017 $
99.76 $
76.23
2018 $
85.66 $
41.43

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

85021343,74955,32755,32843,352
42,074
58,77846,66043,925
26,17361,441#DIV/0!

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

850213500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00600.00500.00500.00400.00800.00800.00

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

85021387.50
110.65110.66
86.70
84.15
97.96
93.32
87.85
65.43
76.80
#DIV/0!

A1- 248

850220
111
93
122
148
169
209
172
164
144
163
227

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

850220
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.60
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.30
3.00

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

850220*110.8993.26
121.9498.91
105.89104.26
86.08
82.16
71.83
70.83
75.75

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

850231
615
1,192
1,100
4,390
1,603
2,029
2,343
1,424
660
632
#DIV/0!

850239
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

24,667
761
1,134
608
891
262
348
3,419
359
#DIV/0!

850231
0.50
1.00
1.00
5.00
1.50
2.00
2.70
1.70
0.80
0.80
0.80

850239850231
1,230.74
1,192.38
1,100.00
878.001,068.84
1,014.31
867.60837.59825.39790.03#DIV/0!

850239**200.00
8.00
10.00
6.00
8.00
2.50
2.50
25.00
2.50
2.50

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

123.3495.08
113.40101.27111.35104.78139.16136.74
143.43#DIV/0!

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21*As anecdotal points of comparison, bulk prices for gasoline-fueled small generators on alibaba.com are in the range of $100 per kW (and less, as of 2018), as are the prices
for small gasoline-fueled generating sets imported from China and sold by Harbor Freight (see http://www.harborfreight.com/catalogsearch/result?q=generator, for example).
When generator units are imported to the DPRK in large quantities, one would expect the unit price to be lower, but on the other hand, the additionalcosts of delivering units to the DPRK may make the unit price higher. In any case, the assumed capacity values above should be treated as rough estimates.
See below for example prices on Chinese-origin diesel generator sets.
** Although the fuel type for traded category 850239 is unspecified, we assume based on their likely size that the units imported are largely
spark-ignition units for the purposes of the compilation below.
Although there were a number of other trades of diesel and gas generators between the DPRK and nations other than China between 2011 and 2018,the only ones of significant volume was with Russia, as follows (there were no trades in these categories reported in Comtrade statistics in 2018):
PeriodTrade Flow

Reporter2012 Export

Russian Federation

2015 Export

Russian Federation

2016 Export

Russian Federation2017 Export

Russian Federation2018 Export

Russian Federation

PartnerDem. People's
Rep. of Korea
Dem. People's
Rep. of Korea
Dem. People's
Rep. of Korea
Dem. People's
Rep. of Korea
Dem. People's
Rep. of Korea

Trade
Value

Code

850213$1,687,938

850211$19,073

850211$18,867

850220$2,102

Quantity
Unit

NetWeight (kg)

Number of
items
Number of
2,340
items
Number of
1,560
items
Number of103
items
Number of
items

90,000Trade
Quantity

621
1

The 2012 transaction appears to be an order for 6 large diesel gensets. If one assumes an average cost of$150 per kW of capacity, these trades imply a total capacity of
11,253 kW, or an average of
1,875 kW per unit. This estimate is added to the estimated capacity of Chinese units shown below.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Implied capacity (kW) added, based on
2010 estimate of capacity per unit above
through 2010, then on annual estimates ofcapacity per unit through 2018.

YEAR

Implied estimated cummulative
capacity (kW) added, based on
estimates above
Spark Ignition
Diesel Units
Spark Ignition Units
Diesel Units
Units
1993
9
9
1994
11,18011,1809
1995
1,200
12,38091996
1,420
13,8009
1997
1,220
15,0209
1998
2,720
17,740
9
1999
1,080
6
18,820
15
2000
9,120
27,940
15
2001
4,760
56
32,70071
2002
11,740444,440
75
2003
9,340
43
53,780
118
2004
7,140
222
60,920340
2005
20,280264
81,200604
2006
13,300334
94,500938
2007
19,480425
113,980
1,363
2008
24,6804,170
138,660
5,533
2009
35,22015,614
173,880
21,147
2010
50,82012,229224,700
33,376
2011
65,60026,523
290,300
59,8992012
79,55032,855369,850
92,754
2013
89,39832,244459,248
124,9982014
122,820
73,629582,069
198,6262015
182,540
118,341
764,609
316,9672016
108,465
57,571
873,074
374,538
2017
67,38030,888940,454405,426
2018
8,968
4,499
949,422409,925
2019
6,738
3,089
956,160
413,013
2020
1,348
618
957,507413,631

For 2018 and 2019, we assume that there must have been at least some imports of generators
beyond the volumes reported in official statistics. We assume that the total additional"off-book s" trade in generators was approximately
10% ofReported 2017 trade in 2018 and 2019. For 2020, due to restrictions on cross-border tradedue to measures in the DPRK to prevent the spread of coronavirus, we assume that only
a total of
2% of the 2017 volume of generators was imported
off-books to the DPRK.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
The following price list for new generators from a Chinese company (downloaded 10/5/2012) isfrom http://www.china-power-contractor.cn/Perk ins-Diesel-Generator-Price-List.html.
These prices are about twice as high as the implied costs calculated above for DPRK imports, but theunits imported to the DPRK may be mostly used units.

Perkins Diesel Generator Price List
Perkins Diesel Generator Price List (in USD)
Rated Power KW
Diesel Engine
Type
Chinese
7 KW

4 0 3 C- 11G

Unit Price in USD with different Generator
Marathon
Siemens
Stamford

9.4/8.5

5,074.63

/ B>

/ B>

/ B>

10 KW

4 0 3 C- 15 G

13 . 3 / 12

5,552.24

/ B>

/ B>

/ B>

15 KW

4 0 4 C- 2 2 G

2 0 . 4 / 18 . 5

6 , 5 6 7 . 16

/ B>

/ B>

/ B>

2 4 KW

110 3 A- 3 3 G

30.4/27.7

7 , 0 14 . 9 3

/ B>

/ B>

/ B>

5 0 KW

110 4 A- 4 4 TG 1

59/53

11, 3 4 3 . 2 8

12 , 0 2 9 . 8 5

11, 6 8 6 . 5 7

11, 7 9 1. 0 4

7 5 KW

110 4 C- 4 4 TAG 2

98/89

13 , 8 8 0 . 6 0

15 , 0 7 4 . 6 3

14 , 7 7 6 . 12

14 , 6 8 6 . 5 7

12 0 KW

10 0 6 TAG 2

14 3 / 12 9 . 5

19 , 2 5 3 . 7 3

20,835.82

20,626.87

20,447.76

15 0 KW

110 6 D- E6 6 TAG 4

17 4 / 15 6 . 7

23,582.09

25,268.66

24,925.37

24,820.90

2 0 0 KW

13 0 6 C- E8 7 TAG 6

2 3 9 / 2 18

3 3 , 13 4 . 3 335,000.00

34,328.36

34,626.87

2 5 0 KW

2 3 0 6 C- E14 TAG 1A

304/261

35,223.88

3 7 , 6 11. 9 4

3 6 , 5 6 7 . 16

37,059.70

3 0 0 KW

2 3 0 6 C- E14 TAG 2

344/304

3 6 , 5 6 7 . 16

39,253.73

3 7 , 3 13 . 4 338,686.57

3 2 0 KW

2 3 0 6 C- E14 TAG 3

387/344

40,597.01

4 3 , 13 4 . 3 3

4 1, 19 4 . 0 342,552.24

3 5 0 KW

2 5 0 6 C- E15 TAG 1

435/396

49,850.75

52,238.81

5 1, 19 4 . 0 3

52,089.55

4 0 0 KW

2 5 0 6 C- E15 TAG 2

478/435

52,537.31

5 5 , 6 7 1. 6 454,328.36

55,537.31

5 0 0 KW

2 8 0 6 A- E18 TAG 1

556/482

7 3 , 7 3 1. 3 477,358.21

7 4 , 7 7 6 . 12

76,895.52

5 2 0 KW

2 8 0 6 A- E18 TAG 2

6 11/ 5 5 680,746.27

8 4 , 7 7 6 . 12

82,089.55

84,328.36

8 0 0 KW

4 0 0 8 TAG 2 A

947/861

13 8 , 0 5 9 . 7 0

14 5 , 3 7 3 . 13

13 9 , 4 0 2 . 9 914 5 , 0 7 4 . 6 3

10 0 0 KW

4 0 12 - 4 6 TWG 2 A

115 4 / 10 4 4202,985.07

2 10 , 5 9 7 . 0 1

204,328.36

209,402.99

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
The following was downloaded 1/4/2016 from http://www.china-power-contractor.cn/MTU-Cummins-Perkins-Volvo-Diesel-Generator-from-6kw-to-2400kw.html
and suggests that prices may have fallen on units of most sizes over the past five years.
EngineGenerator
FOB unit
Item
Genset model
Capacitybrand\Modelbrand\Model price in USD
Perkins\403D- Marathon\GMZIPM8.6P
10.75KVA$5,68015G
8.6-4
Perkins\403D- Marathon\GM10-25KVA
ZIPM16P
20KVA$6,26022G
8.6-4
Cummins\4B3.9- Marathon\GMZCM20P
25KVA$6,110G2
20-4
Perkins\1006TG Marathon\MPZIPM80P
100KVA$12,8902A
80-4
100KVA
Cummins\6BT5. Marathon\MPZCM80P
100KVA$8,8709-G2
80-4
Perkins\2206C- Marathon\MPZIPM280P
350KVA$38,120
E13TAG2280-4350KVA
Cummins\NTA85 Marathon\MPZCM280P
350KVA$26,550
5-G2A
280-4
Perkins\2506C- Marathon\MPZIPM400P
500KVA$45,998
E15TAG2400-4500KVA
Cummins\KTA19- Marathon\MPZCM400P
500KVA$45,260G4
400-4
MTU\12V2000G6 Marathon\MXZGBM640P
800KVA$89,2005
700-4Perkins\4006Marathon\MX750KVA
ZIPM640P
800KVA$96,984
23TAG3A
700-4
Cummins\KTA38- Marathon\MXZCM600P
750KVA$84,620G2
630-4
MTU\16V2000G6 Marathon\MXZGBM800P
1000KVA$125,2865
850-4Perkins\4008TA Marathon\MX1000KVA
ZIPM800P
1000KVA$119,380
G2A
850-4
Cummins\KTA38- Marathon\MXZCM800P
1000KVA$118,168G5
850-4

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
17 As a rough estimate of the efficiency of small gasoline-fired generators, http://www.electricgeneratorsdirect.com/Honeywell-6064-Portable-Generator/p6685.html
gives a fuel consumption of
0.5 gallons in
3.6 hours at
50% load for a
Honeywell generator rated at
800 Watts. This would imply fuel consumption of approximately
0.139 gal/hr at
121 MJ/gal (LHV) or
16.81 MJ/hr to produce
400 Whr/hr or
1.44 MJ of electricity. This implies a net efficiency of
8.6%
We assume that the average efficiency of these units is somewhat higher than calculated here, and rises over time as the average stock of gasoline generators in
the DPRK becomes newer over time with increasing sales. The efficeincy of diesel generators is lik ewise assumed to rise over time as the average stock becomes newer.
Diesel generator efficiencies are rough estimates.
18 The UN Comtrade database provides the following information regarding trades in solar photovotaic equipment from China to the DPRK since 2009 in
trade category "854140" = "Name: Photosensitive/photovoltaic/LED semiconductor devices; Description: Photosensitive semiconductor devices, including photovoltaic cells
whether or not assembled in modules or made up into panels; light emitting diodes"
We use these data to estimate the implied volume of imported solar photovoltaic panels into the DPRK.
ImpliedImplied kW Cumulative
AssumedPV
kW PV
Implied$/watt*Solar PV system price trend Systems
Systems
Watts per Implied kg
YEAR
Value (USD)
Quantity
Weight (kg)Implied $/piece (Wholesale) (index)*
Imported
Imported
Unit
per kW
2009$476,898
120,037 Not Provided$
3.97 $
4.09
3.75
116.49116.490.97 N/A
2010$1,069,042
1,334,010
94,108 $0.80 $
2.73
2.50
391.71508.200.29
240.252011$2,986,229
2,494,441
297,735 $1.20 $
2.29
2.09
1,306.50
1,814.70
0.52
227.892012$1,401,307
185,491
97,533 $7.55 $
1.31
1.20
1,066.92
2,881.62
5.75
91.42
2013
$3,899,887
424,450644,336 $9.19 $
1.14
1.05
3,412.46
6,294.08
8.04
188.82
2014$4,501,019
856,380 Not Provided$
5.26 $
1.09
1.00
4,123.07
10,417.15
4.81 N/A
2015$8,524,920
716,670
1,397,045 $11.90 $
0.96
0.88
8,859.05
19,276.20
12.36
157.702016$6,146,408
533,294 Not Provided$
11.53 $
0.88
0.81
6,973.30
26,249.50
13.08 N/A
2017
$1,819,988
183,198
377,759 $9.93 $
0.64
0.59
2,848.95
29,098.45
15.55
132.602018$60,720
1,114
11,052 $54.51 $
0.64
0.59
95.05
29,193.50
85.32
116.282017 value for quantity was not provided in Comtrade statistics, and has been estimated based on watts per unit and kg per watt estimated for previous years.
The only Comtrade data available for trades in this category involving the DPRK for the year 2019 (as of 5-15-20) was a small export shipment from the DPRK to Poland.
* DPRK Solar Panel and Battery Prices from Daily NK article
by Seol Song Ah (2014), “Solar Panels Shine New Light on NK”, Daily NK, dated 2014-10-24, and available as http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=12465/.
suggest an average PV panel price over several sizes of systems of$1.31 per watt. We assume that the average mark-up from customs values
to DPRK retail prices is
20% , and further assume that the average costs changed consistent with international solar module costs, for example, as described in
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf, Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends, Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2014 Edition, dated September 22, 2014, byauthors from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (USA). See, for example, slides 5 and 26.
The 2015 version of the same report is available here http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64898.pdf.
Index from 2015 on is based roughly on trend in residential module plus inverter plus balance of system costs from https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.pdf, Appendix A.
2018 costs are assumed similar to 2017 costs (see, for example, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf, page 21.
We assume that an unshaded PV system in the DPRK will produce
1200 k Wh annually per k W of capacity, but that the average small PV system
is only approximately
80% unshaded, though the latter is a very rough estimate.
Solar PV "efficiency" set at
100% by definition.

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19 Based on data from the UN Comtrade database, and the assumptions above, the estimated capacity of imported wind power systems in the DPRK, starting in 2008, wereapproximately as follows:
Estimated Annual Estimated Cumulative
Wind Capacity
Wind Capacity
YEAR
Imported
Imported
2008
13.50
13.50
2009
8.00
21.50
2010
10.00
31.50
2011
35.00
66.50
2012
262.50329.002013
16.00
345.002014
202.50547.502015
110.50658.002016
101.60759.602017
71.88
831.482018
831.48The implied average size of these units is quite small, so we assume that they are mostly not grid-connected. We assume an average capacity factor
of
25% , which may well be somewhat higher than is realistic for average DPRK applications, though it would be low for typical applications.
Wind power "efficiency" set at
100% by definition.
The DPRK produces some domestic wind turbines, although these appear to be mostly quite small. See, for example, North Korean Economy Watch (2015),"DPRK’s domestic sales of wind turbines", dated October 28th, 2015, identifying a factory producing wind turbines of 100 to 300 W capacity. Original
source is Pyongyang Times. Zoom in Korea (2018), includes a reference to "The Pyongsong Automated Equipment Factory, which mass-produces wind turbines,
used to only produce small turbines with an output of 1.5 k ilowatts, but it now produces 100- and 250-k ilowatt turbines." ("N Korea Science and Technology Part 4: Advances in
Sustainable Farming and Renewable Energy", dated July 10, 2018, and available as http://www.zoomink orea.org/part-4-advances-in-sustainable-farming-and-renewable-energy/,
but no information is available on the volume of wind turbines produced by the factory. A DPRK expert was quoted as follows in North Korea Economy Watch("Progress in North Korea’s renewable energy production", dated February 15th, 2016,
and available as https://www.nk econwatch.com/2016/02/15/progress-in-north-k oreas-renewable-energy-production/),"In 2014, Natural Energy Research Institute Director Lee Myong Son revealed that, 'among the wind turbine currently in use, 71.4 percent are in the 300w range while
28.6 percent are above that range,' indicating that most products used in solar and wind power generation are domestically produced."
We have no specific information on the volume of wind turbines produced in the DPRK, but assuming that most are small, probably are mounted relatively low, may not
be optimally located, and thus probably have low capacity factors, we assume that the output of domestic wind turbines in any given year is about
20%of the total output we estimate for turbines imported from China. This is of course a rough estimate only.

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20 The DPRK has one completed tidal power plant, part of the West Sea Barrage, near Nampo. This plant has a nominal capacity of
500 k W
(as described to Nautilus delegation by West Sea Barrage Visitor Center staff in 1998). As a point of comparison, The article"The Sihwa Lak e Tidal Power Plant: The World’s Largest Tidal Power Station", by Moataz Abdelmegid,
available as http://www.bibalex.org/psc/en/home/sciplanetdetails.aspx?id=76
The Sihwa Lak e Tidal Power Station in South Korea has the following parameters:
Capacity
254 MW
Stated displacement of oil for power generation
862,000 bbl, which at
5.86 GJ/bbl
would be5,051,320 GJ. Assuming a power generation efficiency of
33% for the displaced generation yields an output of
1,666,936 GJ, or
463.04 GWhe/yr.
The implied capacity factor is thus
20.8% for the Sihwa plant. We take this figure as the maxium capacity factor for
the DPRK's West Sea Barrage plant, but assume that it is probable that due to maintenance problems and/or substation issues, it is lik ely that the plant operated
no more than
20% of this maximum by 2000 and after, yielding output from 2000-on of
182.30 MWh/yr.
This is a very rough estimate. Based on our observation of the condition of the plant in 1998, it is possible that the plant is not operating at all.
100% by definition.
21 As usual, hard data on the output of the DPRK electricity generation system is not publically available, and as a result, proxy measures and assumptions
must be employed to try and estimate output for 2014. The Index Mundi series of electricity production estimates, purportedly based on the CIA World Factbook
was as follows as of 5/5/2020 (from Index Mundi, http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=k n&v=79):
Country
North Korea

2000

2001
31.98

2008

2002
28.6

2009
21.72

2018

2010
21.72

2019
16.57

2003
33.4

30.01
2011

20.9

22.5

2004
30.01
2012
22.52

2005
33.62
2013
20.45

2006
18.75
2014
21.04

2007
21.71
2017
17

2020
16.57

5
This trend suggests that there was little difference between the output of the DPRK electricity system in 2010 and 2014. The cited source of this information, however,gave a lower estimate of
18.76 TWh for 2012, which is less than the value provided by Index Mundi, and13.41 TWh for 2015.
(CIA World Factbook entry for Korea, North, available as https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook /geos/k n.html.)
Considering a number of factors, including the apparent lack of substantial imports of electricity generating equipment (boilers and generators, for example) from China
during 2010 through 2014, the higher (but stabilizing, as of 2015) coal exports to China over 2010 through 2015, indicating at least ongoing activitiy in coal mining(though perhaps focused on export revenues), and the overall reported poorer availability of power in 2014 relative to the few previous years, plus the apparent lack of
any new coal-fired generation coming on line, we provisionally conclude that any increase in coal-fired generation between 2010 and 2014 would have had to have come from
improved fuel availability and output, We assume that 2014 coal-fired generation was
73.6% higher than in 2010 in this low-hydro year in orderto balance electricity output with estimated requirements.
For 2015, we assume that coal-fired generation was
47.8% higher than in 2010 (as 2015 was a more normal hydro year) to balance estimated required generation.
For 2016, we assume that coal-fired generation was
58.2% higher than in 2010 to balance estimated required generation.
For 2017, we assume that coal-fired generation was
54.0% higher than in 2010 to balance estimated required generation.
For 2018, we assume that coal-fired generation was
26.3% higher than in 2010 to balance estimated required generation.
For 2019, we assume that coal-fired generation was
26.3% higher than in 2010 to balance estimated required generation.
For 2020, we assume that coal-fired generation was
25.0% lower than in 2010 to balance estimated required generation, in part due to productiondifficulties at DPRK mines due to restrictions on imports of equipment parts and other inputs for mining, and in part due to movement restrictions within the DPRK toaddress the COVID-19 epidemic. It is also possible that domestic and international restrictions on transport and movement have reduced the availability of parts andparts and maintenance supplies for thermal (mostly coal-fired) power plants, which may have also limited their use during 2020.
There does appear to be one new coal-fired generator being built, as reported by Curtis Melvin for 38 North, in "Pyongyang’s Perpetual Power Problems",
dated 25 November, 2014, and available as http://38north.org/2014/11/cmelvin112514/. This article shows satellite imagery of"a new coal-powered thermal power plant in Samdung-ri, Kangdong County, in eastern Pyongyang", that was mostly finished (but apparently not yet operational) asof late-2014. The article estimates the size of the power plant, which it refers to as the Kangdong plant, as between 100 and 300 MW, though nocapacity figures have apparently been announced by the DPRK. Our guess, based on comparison of photos of the plant (see below)
with photos of the 50 MW (but possibly designed to be 100 or 150 MW) East Pyongyang power plant, is that the actual capacity is/will be toward the lower end of that range.

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In the photo below, likely, based on vegetation, taken in late summer or fall of 2015, the power plant looks largely complete, but does not seem to be in operation.
Photo from Google Earth, https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kangdong,+Pyongyang,+North+Korea/@39.0011772,126.1627622,565m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x5fd5e2124d7020a7:0x1e266ba7812ffe4e,
Coordinates 38.999085 N, 126.162468 E.

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By way of comparison, a photo from Google Earth of the East Pyongyang plant in operation, probably from about the same time, is shown below(Source, Google Maps, https://www.google.com/maps/search/east+pyongyang+power+plant,+North+Korea/@38.9694907,125.6877455,426m/data=!3m1!1e3.)

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Sourcewatch (2018) indicates that the "Kangdong power station is a 300 megawatt (MW) coal plant under construction near Pyongyang, North Korea", but suggests that little progress has been made in construction between
2013 and 2018. The following photo, from Google Earth, probably in mid 2018, suggests that, indeed, not much progress has occurred relative to the 2015 photo above. In fact, the site look s as though it has not been k ept up
much in the last few years, judging from what appear to be drifts of sand in some places, although a set of what may be vehicles, trailers, or storage containers at the northwestern edge of the site may indicate pending activity.
Google Earth Pro Image from April 2019, coordinates approximately 39.00, 126.163. The Google Earth image at right shows the same site in June of 2017.
The 2017 and 2019 image show relatively little progress on construction since the earlier (2015) image was tak en.

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Sunchon Thermal power plant, probably early 2016, from Google Earth,https://www.google.com/maps/place/39%C2%B024'04.0%22N+125%C2%B058'03.0%22E/@39.4005487,125.966141,847m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d39.4011111!4d125.9675

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Sunchon Thermal power plant, probably mid=2018, from Google Earth,https://www.google.com/maps/place/39%C2%B024'04.0%22N+125%C2%B058'03.0%22E/@39.4000188,125.9658967,657m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d39.4011111!4d125.9675

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22 Leo Byrne of NK News provided the following China Customs Statistics for 2016 and 2017 (the latter partial) on 11-13-17:
Year 2016
Month
1월
2월
3월
4월
5월
6월
7월
8월
9월

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Value
801,048
366,161456,637
982,459
136,172
160,959
35,508349,966
683,397

10월
11월
12월

$
$
$

361,421352,970
715,510

Total
Comtradefigures for 2016$

Year 2017

Quantity (Number)
Implied value/unit
33,818 $23.69
27,626 $13.25
31,325 $14.58
82,290 $11.94
20,803 $6.55
4,399 $
36.59
1,356 $
26.19
15,971 $21.91
156,203 $4.38
37,962 $17,582 $39,832 $

9.52
20.08
17.96

5,402,208

469,167 $11.51$5,239,526

473,058 $

11.08

Month
1월
2월
3월
4월
5월
6월
7월
8월
9월
Total of
Above

Value

Quantity(Number)
27,6732,290
48,659386
491
39,750
1,537
1,868
1,294

Impliedvalue/unit
$
19.24
$
16.29
$
5.42
$
111.28
$
49.46
$
2.72
$
21.32
$
51.11
$
48.02

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

532,555
37,294
263,947
42,95624,284
108,074
32,76995,482
62,133$

1,199,494

123,948 $9.68

Full Year
Extrapolated
Total$

1,599,325

165,264 $9.68

23 A July 24, 2018 Reuters article entitled "Exclusive: North Korean fuel prices drop, suggesting U.N. sanctions being undermined", by Hyonhee Shin,and available as https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-economy-exclusive/north-korean-fuel-prices-drop-suggesting-u-n-sanctions-being-undermined-idUSKBN1KE15F,
includes the following passage:“China said on Tuesday it strictly abided by U.N. sanctions, but indicated it may have resumed some fuel shipments to North K orea in the second quarter of this year.
Gasoline was sold by private dealers in the North Korean capital Pyongyang at about $1.24 per kg as of Tuesday, down 33 perce nt from $1.86 per kg on June 5 and 44
percent from this year’s peak of $2.22 per kg on March 27, according to Reuters analysis of data compiled by the Daily NK web site. Diesel prices are at $0.85 per kg,
down about 17 percent from March. The website [that collects price data] is run by North Korean defectors who collect prices via phone calls with multiple traders in the
North after cross-checks to corroborate their information, offering a rare glimpse into the livelihoods of ordinary North Koreans.”

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24 Despite the dramatic reduction in reported exports of wind and solar PV systems to the DPRK since 2016, several articles have described the trend toward continuingpurchases and installation of these systems, including larger-sized PV systems, not only by residential consumers, but by commercial, institutional, and even industrial
consumers as well. See, for example, Kang Mi Jin (2019), "Massive increase in solar panel use in North Korea", Daily NK, dated 2019-04-12, andavailable as https://www.dailynk .com/english/massive-increase-in-solar-panel-use-in-north-k orea/.
We therefore assume that additional wind and solar PV systems have been imported into the DPRK, lik ely from China, without being documented. In the case of solar
PVs, at least some panels are lik ely assembled in the DPRK from parts imported from China. Some DPRK-made wind turbines, at least in small sizes, are probably
also coming into the mark et in the DPRK. We assume that the following volumes (k W) of wind and solar PV systems went into use in the DPRK in 2017 and 2018from a mixture of off-book s imports and domestic production. The Daily NK article referenced above includes the following passage: "the Daily NK estimates that
almost 50% of households in North Korea have solar panels ". Given that this estimate is based on anecdotal reports of observations in just some DPRK cities, wefeel that the Daily NKs estimate is probably somewhat overstated. If it were accurate, and "households" refers to both urban and rural households, then the total
solar PV capacity by early 2019 would be on the order of 100 to 200 MW, assuming that the average household owning a PV panel has one in the range of 30 to
60 watts. The assumed values below are roughly consistent with pre-2016 growth trends, tempered increasingly in 2017 and 2018 by the impact of
UNSC sanctions on imports availability.

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

kW of assumed additional renewable
Implied total cumulative kW ofgeneration capacity (domestic or
renewable capacity (including
unreported imports)
reported imports)
Wind Power
Solar PV
Wind Power
Solar PV
50
5,000
810
31,25080
12,000961
46,098150
16,0001,111
62,194150
16,0001,261
78,194
60
8,000
1,321
86,19425 A UPI article, "North Korea recovering power plants, state media says", by Elizabeth Shim, dated March 9, 2020, and available
as https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/09/North-Korea-recovering-power-plants-state-media-says/5081583777107/, says that
DPRK media has reported that crews of work ers have been sent to the major thermal and hydro power plants to "restore" the plants:"...work ing hard to restore the original performance of power generation facilities," We assume that without improved access to spare parts andother products for plant maintenance, the improvments made in performance will be modest in 2020, and any improvements may be offset by problems associatedwith the transport of needed goods and fuels due to the the COVID-19 panedmic, as well as due to problems obtaining spare parts and othermaterial due to ongoing UNSC sanctions on the DPRK.
26 KCNA Watch, reporting on an article from the Pyongyang Times, describes a rural installation of a 1 k W micro-hydro system bya rural family. "Family builds mini hydropower plant", dated 07/05/2020, and available asas https://k cnawatch.org/newstream/1588845669-773171530/Family-builds-mini-hydropower-plant/. The installation on a "brook let" seems touse mostly local materials.

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27 The Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) has been under construction since 2010 or earlier. Although it appears complete, and there havebeen recent additions of landscaping, new buildings, and modifications to the berms and dam in the adjacent river in the last few years,
the ELWR apparently has not run yet as of early 2020. See, for example,"North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Rail Activity at the Radioisotope Production and Uranium Enrichment Plants", dated February 14, 2020,
and available as https://www.38north.org/2020/02/yongbyon021420/. It is possible that the ELWR is being readied for operation in the near future, but
we assume that it will not operate, or at least will not provide electricity to the grid, in 2020.
The image below, from Google Earth Pro, shows the Yongbyon ELWR as of October 13, 2019, apparently not operating, as
indicated by the lack of steam from the smok estack . Some stains on the dome of the reactor have appeared in recent years, but we
do not k now what their significance is, if any.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2000
Prepared by David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

2/24/2011

Estimate of Status of Electricity Generating Plants as of 2000 (see Note 1)

Plant Name/Group
Thermal Power Plants
Oungi (Sonbong refinery)

DesignFuel
HFO(Plant associated with small W
Coast Refinery)
HFO

Original
Capacity(MW)
200

Estimated
Capacity
Operable
FactorEstimated
Capacity (fraction of
2000
as of
operable
output2000
capacity)(GWh) Notes-(Note 3)
0%

60

60

20%

Pukchang
Pyongyang
East Pyongyang
Taechon

Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal

1,600
500
100
200

180
190
40
50

45%
45%
45%
45%

Songlim (internal combustion)
SonglimSariwonSunchonTotal of Above

HFO/diesel
Coal
Coal
Coal

9.8
100
100
100
2,970

9.8
530

50%
0%
0%
0%

Thermal Capacity included in
1996 estimate but not in theabove:
Total of Large Thermal

Coal

350
3,320

210
740

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45%
43%

-

Not in operation since 1999

Operable capacity not from Source 1-estimate assuming full capacity available,
but plant may have heat exchanger
problems. Much of output may be
105 dedicated to nearby refinery.
3x100 MW units in operation, further 40%
reduction in capacity due to heat
710 exchanger problems.
749 See also Note 16
158 See also Note 16
197
43 Capacity factor rough estimate
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
1,961
Operable capacity not from Source 1-estimate assuming full capacity available,
but down-rated by 40% because plants
828 likely have heat exchanger problems.
2,789

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DesignFuel

Original
Capacity(MW)

Estimated
Capacity
Operable
FactorEstimated
Capacity (fraction of
2000
as of
operable
output2000
capacity)(GWh) Notes

Plant Location/Category
Hydro Power Plants
Plants on Chinese Border

Hydro

700

700

17.5%

Other Hydro Plants as of 1996

Hydro

3,925

2,944

36%

1,073 See Note 2
Assumes about 75% of non-border-region
capacity is operable (or that the averageavailable capacity is 75% of nameplate),and capacity factor is 75% of 1996
9,401 estimate.

33%

Excludes portion of capacity at Chinese
10,474 border used exclusively by China.

Total Estimated Operable
Hydro Capacity

4,625

3,644

TOTAL IMPLIED DPRKELECTRICITY OUTPUT, 2000
Recorded Electricity Exports to China
Recorded Electricity Imports from China
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation

13,263 GWH (see Note 4)
22.66 GWh (see Note 5)
0.00 GWh (see Note 5)
7.71E+05 GJ

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Sources/Notes:
1 Information on status of electricity generating facilities from an industry source, except as noted below.
2 An industry source with k nowledge of operating procedures for the hydroelectric power plants along
the China/DPRK border estimates that there are approximately 700 MW of capacity providing power
to the DPRK from the 4 hydroelectric cascades on the rivers that form the border between the
DPRK and China. Further, this capacity, if it was damaged in the floods of the mid-1990s, is now operational.
Standard procedures for operating the shared hydro capacity on the DPRK/China border is to
run the plants on a peak ing basis (low capacity factor) except for August, when rivers are full andthe plants are run at full capacity. Availability of water thus limits output. As 2000 was reportedly arelatively low water year (perhaps 70% of normal), we assume that the average capacity factor for these plants
was10% for all months except August, and thus the overall annual averagecapacity factor was approximately
17.5% .
3 An estimated 50% capacity factor for the operable thermal units is roughly consistent with the level of
output we assumed for 1996, with some reduction to account for difficulties in obtaining coal supplies. Still,
50 percent may be a generous estimate. By way of comparison, the KEEI data set provided to Nautilus(work book titled "DPRK Energy Data", based on information from the ROK National Statistics Office)suggests total (probably not all operable) thermal capacity of 2960 MW, and output of 9200 GWh, foran average capacity factor of 35 percent. The average hydroelectric capacity factor from the same sourcefor 2000 is 25%.
4 This total is lower than the 19.3 TWh quoted by The Wall Street Journal (Jay Solomon, "EUROPE ENGINEERS WAIT
FOR U.S. MOVE TO OFFER ENERGY HELP TO NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 03/21/01) as having been
estimated by Siemens AG, and is also lower than the 19.4 TWh estimated production in 2000 asprovided in the KEEI data set described in Note 3. The total, however, does not seem unreasonablegiven the difficult status of the power generation and fuel supply infrastructure in the DPRK described byrecent visitors. The total calculated also is similar to the value (apparently) attributed to "ROK Officials"
by the Associated Press in a 1998 article focusing on potential South-North Power Transfers("KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CHIEF OFFERS SURPLUS POWER TO N. KOREA," Seoul, 06/08/98)
as "most of the DPRK's power plants are fossil-fired and only produce about 1.5 million k ilowatts daily,
about one- fifth of their total capacity, because of fuel shortages". If the reference here, which is not entirely clear, isinterpreted to mean that the average output of DPRK electricity plants was 1500 MW as of mid-1998, the implied
total annual generation would be about 13 TWh.
5 Exports from the DPRK to China from China Customs Report 2000 , pp. 1483-1495 (in Chinese).

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6 Source from the industry reports that the DPRK lik ely received a total of 25,000 tonnes of used auto
tires from Japan and Taiwan in 2000 for use as a supplemental boiler fuel. The DPRK has reportedly beenrequesting similar cargoes from Europe. This estimate corresponds well with data from Japan
Customs Statistics (data from files downloaded from http://www.customs.go.jp/touk ei/download/index_d012_e.htm)
that lists year 2000 exports from Japan to the DPRK in a category (HS # 400400000) that is definedas "Waste, parings and scrap of rubber (other than hard rubber) and powders and granules obtained therefrom"at a total level of
22,156 tonnes. We use this value as the estimated input of waste tires toelectricity generation in the DPRK in 2000. For 2005, exports from Japan to the DPRK in the same category
were recorded as
25,599 tonnes. The reported value of cargoes of this product averaged about
3600 Yen/tonne in 2000, and was about 3000 Yen per tonne from 2003 through 2005. By way of comparison
these per-tonne value were less, sometimes significantly less, than the amount paid by Japan for coalexported from the DPRK to Japan in those years. Exports of this waste-rubber product werehigher in all of the other years between 2000 and 2005, peak ing at over 110,000 tonnes in 2003.
UN Comtrade data available for exports of this product from Japan to the DPRK are as follows:
Trade
Value

Period1988$102,675

1989$80,735

Net Weight(kg)

Im plied
Cost pertonne

920,312 $ 111.57
631,125 $ 127.92
189,910 $ 116.73
926,937 $ 397.87

1990$22,169

1991$368,796

1992$16,346

1993$2,693

1995$6,3241996$5,117

1997$20,383

328,875 $ 61.98

1998$37,169

1999$185,892

1,385,812 $ 26.82
6,047,750 $ 30.74

88,050 $ 185.64
14,000 $ 192.36
237,359 $ 26.64
486,250 $ 10.52

22,156,316 $ 33.09
78,881,812 $ 20.28

2000$733,051

2001$1,600,014

2002$2,207,715 112,927,562 $ 19.55$1,633,181 63,311,953 $ 25.80

2003
2003

$7,736

100,500 $ 76.98

2004$1,781,644

62,972,308 $ 28.29
50,000 $ 86.76

2004$4,338

2005$692,654

2006$221,617

25,599,116 $ 27.06
8,557,974 $ 25.90

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
7 Oxford Recycling Inc. (http://www.oxfordrecycling.com/product.html#5, visited 6/8/02) lists a fuel energy
content of
15,000 Btu/lb, or
34.82 GJ/tonne, for fuel from shredded tires.
the same source lists a sulfur content of
1.30% for the same fuel.
8 An article entitled "Defector from Pyonyang: 'Thirty thousand constructing soldires were died (sic) in Guemgangsan Plant'",
by Han Yo'ng-chin, published 14 Feb, 2006, in The Daily NK WWW (Seoul), includes a reference to theAnbyun Youth Power Plant, near Mount Guemgang (Kumgang) as having a second step of construction completed
in 2000, with final construction completed in 2003, and having a capacity of 200 MW.
9 An article in KCNA in English (Pyongyang), dated 14 December, 2004, and entitled "Leader Gives Field
Guidance to Construction of Power Station", refers to the under-construction Orangch'on (hydro) Power Plant
in North Hamgyong Province. The generating room of "Power Station No. 1" is described as "entering the construction stage".
10 An article in KCNA in English (Pyongyang), dated 26 May, 2005, and entitled "Kim Jong Il Visits
Wo'nsan Power Station", refers to the under-construction Wo'nsan Youth Power Station (hydro)
in Kangwo'n Province. This plant seems to be in the construction phase, with the dam at least partiallycompleted. No figures on capacity are given.
11 An article in KCNA in Korean (Pyongyang), dated 19 September, 2005, and entitled "DPRK Leader Visits
Moranbong Theater Under Reconstruction", includes a reference to the construction of a series of "10 small- and medium-sized
power plants in tiers along [the] To'k chi River", with the implication that construction of the dam and related elements
are complete or nearly so. The article also references the completion and starting of the To'k chinggang No.9
power plant, and refers to an under-construction No. 4 power plant. No information on plant capacity is provided.
12 An broadcast by KCNA in Korean (Pyongyang), dated 20 December, 2005, and on the subject "DPRK TV on Leader'sInspiring People to Build New Power Plants on 'Large Scale'", includes reference to the Naep'yo'ng No. 2 Kunmin Power
Plant and the Wo'nsan Youth Power Plant, and notes that "Kim Jong Il visited all the power plant construction sites in the
country for the last 10 years." The transcript of the broadcast also refers to the volume of the dam at the
Wo'nsan Youth Power Plant as 1.7 million cubic meters, with 16 k m of aqueducts, and refers to assembly ofgenerators No. 2 through 5. There is also a reference to the Ku'mjingang Hu'ngbong Youth Power Plant inSouth Kamgyo'ng Province on the Ku'mjin River, to "large scale hydraulic power plants" such as theOrangch'o'n Power Plant and the Paek tusan So'ngun Youth Power Plant, plus "scores of" small and medium-scale power
plants including the "(Word Indistinct) No. 2 Railway Youth Power Plants, the Naso'n Youth Power Plant, the Singye Kunmin
power plant, the (Word Indistinct) Mine No. 2 Power plant, [and the] (? Taegak ) Youth Power Plant."
There is a reference to a photo of "one or a power plant of the Susongch'o'n Second-stage Five Powr Plants".

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
13 An article in Korea Today (Pyongyang, via Naenara Internet, in English), dated 12 January, 2006, includes aninterview with Kim Su Nam, "Bureau Director of the Ministry of Electric and Coal Industries". In the interview, Kim states,in part, "A large number of hydroelectric power stations have been built, including the Taedonggang, Namgang,
Anbynon Youth, Thaechon, and Kanggye Youth Power Stations. Hydroelectric generating capacity
has steadily grown with the builiding of many minor hydropower stations on the principle of combining large, medium,and small power plants. Along with this, thermal power plants have been erected in Pyongyang, Puk chang, Sunchon, andother parts of the country to meet the growing demand for electricity." The interview also refers to the completed
construction of a dam of the Nyongwon Power Station, and to medium and (smaller) power stations in Jagang, South
Haymgyyong, Ryanggang, and other provinces. Kim also refers to efforts to increase capacity at existing hydro andthermal power stations.
14 The article in Nodong Sinmun (Pyongyang, in Korean), dated 29 December, 2002, page 1, by Chong Yong-ch'ol,"At North Hwanghae Province: Power Plants Wherever the Water Flows", refers to power plants including
the Yosonggang Power Plant in North Hwanghae Province, power plants in Yont'an and Unp'a County, a power plantin P'yongsan County, a power plant in Kok san County (on the stream of the same name), a plant at Taech'on-ri
in Insan County, plants under construction in Singye and Yonsan Counties (Singye Power Plant No. 1, and Hwangdaech'on
Power Plant, respectively, with the latter apparently in early construction phases, and the former more advanced).
There is a reference to "power plant constructed at Holdong Mine".
15 From China Customs Statistics. See Note 10 in "Electric--96-on" Work sheet in this work book .
16 A set of figures from a 2001 document in the authors' files [NKES-01], citing a DPRK source, provided the following
information about the Pyongyang Thermal Power plant. The coal consumption figure shown corresponds to a
relatively high efficiency if it is interpreted as referring to average heat-content coal, and an efficiency
of about
26% when converted from grams of coal equivalent per kWh. The same source also
includes the following information: "The Pyongyang area has 600MW of thermal power plants (Pyongyang Thermal Plant 500MW,
East Pyongyang Thermal Plant 100 MW), which receive coal supplies from the Chik dong Mine and the Chonsong Mine.
Electric power production these days is only 1,700,000 MWh (Pyongyang Thermal Plant 1,225,000 MWh,
East Pyongyang Thermal Plant 475,000 MWh)." The latter figures, if true, suggest that year 2000 electricity output
was somewhat higher than estimated above, at least for these plants. It should be noted that the Pyongyang and in particular,
East Pyongyang plants are among the most recent additions to the DPRK fleet of thermal power plants.
Pyongyang Thermal Power Facilities*
Thermal Condensing Turbine

50 MW x 7 (USSR)

Extraction Steam Condensing
TurbineSteam Condensing Turbine

50 MW x 1 (German)

Steam Boiler
Heating Boiler (210t) 100Gcal/ hTotal Operating Hours
Consumption of Anthracite

100 MW x 1 (German)
12 Unit2 Unit300,000
470g/ kwh
(approximately)

Based on a very rough calculation, 2 boilers of this size could supply
space heat and hot water for tens of thousands of households(perhaps 25,000 to 100,000)* This table has been edited slightly for clarity.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005 AND BEYOND
Prepared by David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

5/6/2020

Estimates of Status of Electricity Generating Plants as of 2005-2017 (see Note 1)

Plant Name/Group

Design Fuel

Estimated
Capacity
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable
(MW)
2005
capacity)

Thermal Power Plants

Oungi (Sonbong refinery)(Note 3)

HFO

(Plant associated with small W
Coast Refinery)
HFO

200

-

60

Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal

1,600
500
100
200

??
??
??
??

Songlim (internal combustion)
SonglimSariwonSunchonTotal of Above
Thermal Capacity included in
1996 estimate but not in theabove:

HFO/diesel
Coal
Coal
Coal

9.8
100
100
100
2,970

??
??
??

350

??

Coal

3,320

0%

60

Pukchang
Pyongyang
East Pyongyang
TaechonTotal of Large Thermal

Estimated2005 output
(GWh)
Notes

20%

??
??
??
??
9.8

50%
??
??
??

70

2,040

A1- 274-

Reportedly not in operation since1999 as of 2000. Assumed not tohave operated since 2000, as
associated refinery remains inactive.

Assumed same as 2000. May be
the same as the "December (nampo)
Powerplant" listed in source 23 ,which in turn is listed as having a
105 capcity of 50 MW in source 12 .
Recent news articles suggest that
this plant is a mainstay of the current
DPRK electricity system, and has
been upgraded recently, but an
estimate of currently operable
capacity is not available. See also
Note 13 .

43 Assumed same as 2000
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
148

??

30.2%

Operable capacity and output fromdata reported by KERI (for 2004)--seesource in Note 1 . Total capacity
roughly consistent with data in Note
5,400 12.

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Plant Location/Category
Hydro Power Plants

Plants on Chinese Border

Other Hydro Plants as of 1996

Design Fuel

Hydro

Hydro

Total Estimated Operable Hydro
Capacity as of end-2004
Hydro

New large hydro capacity added
in 2005

New medium hydro capacity
added in 2005

Hydro

Estimated
Capacity
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable
(MW)
2005
capacity)

700

3,925

4,625

864

3,066

Estimated2005 output
(GWh)
Notes

37%

Estimated based on 2004 figures forplants shared with China as provided
2,800 in source listed in Note 1 .

30%

Estimated based on 2004 figures forplants other than those shared with
China as provided in source listed in
8,100 Note 1 .

3,930

32%

100

15%

Excludes portion of capacity at
Chinese border used exclusively by
China. Total capacity roughly
10,900 consistent with data in Notes 12, 16 .
Rough estimate. New reports in thelast few years such as thosedescribed in Notes 6 - 11 list several
new large hydro facilities in different
stages of construction, but few
132 quantitative details are available.

15%

See Note 14 . Capacity factor for
medium and large hydro plants
added in 2005 assumed half of
average for existing plants not sharedwith China (to roughly account for
operation starting at different times of
114 the year).

86.4

TOTAL IMPLIED DPRKELECTRICITY OUTPUT, 2005

16,546 GWh (See Note 15 )A1- 275

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of Status of Electricity Generating Plants as of 2008 (see Note 1)

Plant Name/Group
Thermal Power Plants

Oungi (Sonbong refinery)

Design Fuel

Estimated
Capacity
Estimated
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable
(MW)
2008
capacity)(Note 3)

HFO

200

-

0%

(Plant associated with small W
Coast Refinery)
HFO

60

60

20%

Pukchang
Pyongyang
East Pyongyang
TaechonSonglim (internal combustion)
SonglimSariwonSunchonTotal of Above
Thermal Capacity included in
1996 estimate but not in theabove:

Total of Large Thermal

Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
HFO/diesel
Coal
Coal
Coal

Coal

1,600
500
100
200
9.8
100
100
100
2,970

??
??
??
??

350

??

3,320

??
??
??
??
9.8

??
??
??

50%
??
??
??

70

2,040

A1- 276

Estimated2008 output
(GWh)
Notes

Reportedly not in operation since1999 as of 2000. Assumed not tohave operated since 2000, as
associated refinery remains inactive.
Assumed same as 2000. This may
be the power plant identified as"December (nampo) Powerplant" in
105 reference 23, below.
Recent information from visitors to
the DPRK indicate that updates tothis plant are planned, but have notyeat been carried out. See also
Note 13 .

43 Assumed same as 2000
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
Plant reportedly not operating
148

??

30.2%

Operable capacity and output fromdata reported by KERI (for 2006)--seesource in Note 1 . Total capacity
roughly consistent with data in Note
5,400 12.

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Plant Location/Category
Hydro Power Plants

Design Fuel

Estimated
Capacity
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable
(MW)
2008
capacity)

Plants on Chinese Border

Hydro

700

864

37%

Other Hydro Plants as of 1996

Hydro

3,925

3,066

31%

Total Estimated Operable Hydro
Capacity as of end-2004
Hydro

New large hydro capacity addedfrom 2005 through 2008

New medium hydro capacity
added between 2006 and 2008

New medium hydro capacity
added during 2009

Hydro

Hydro

4,625

Estimated2008 output
(GWh)
Notes
Estimated based on 2004 figures forplants shared with China as provided
2,800 in source listed in Note 1 .
Slightly higher than 2004 figures forplants other than those shared with
China as provided in source listed in
8,300 Note 1 .

3,930

32%

200

30%

Excludes portion of capacity at
Chinese border used exclusively by
China. Total capacity roughly
11,100 consistent with data in Notes 12, 16 .
Rough estimate. News reports in thelast few years such as thosedescribed in Notes 6 - 11, 19, and 22
list several new large hydro facilities
in different stages of construction,
but few quantitative details are
526 available.

20.0%

See Note 14 . Capacity factor for
medium-sized hydro plants addedfrom 2006 through 2008 assumed
somewhat lower than capacity factor
for larger hydro plants, and also
reduced somewhat because plants
completed in 2008 are assumed toaverage only half of a full year's
output during that year. Capacity
total for 2006-2008 extrapolates trendof capacity additions from 2000-2005
through 2008, and thus is a very
201 rough estimate.

12%

See Note 14 . Capacity factor for
medium-sized hydro plants added
during 2009 assumed somewhat
lower than capacity factor for largerhydro plants, and also reduced
somewhat because plants completed
in 2009 are assumed to average only
half of a full year's output during thatyear. Capacity total for 2009
extrapolates trend of annual capacity
additions from 2000-2005, and thus
40 is a very rough estimate.

114.5438.18

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Plant Location/Category

New medium hydro capacity
added during 2010

Design Fuel

Hydro

Estimated
Capacity
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable(MW)
Completion
capacity)

38.18

12%

Estimated
Output(GWh)
Notes
See Notes 14 and 24 . Capacity
factor for medium-sized hydro plants
added during 2010 assumed
somewhat lower than capacity factor
for larger hydro plants, and also
reduced somewhat because plants
completed in 2010 are assumed toaverage only half of a full year's
output during that year. Capacity
total for 2010 extrapolates trend ofannual capacity additions from 20002005, and thus is a very rough40 estimate.

Hydro

95

29.6%

New large hydro capacity addedfrom 2010 through 2014
Hydro

300

25%

New medium hydro capacity
added during 2015

Hydro

35

20%

New large hydro capacity added
during 2015
Hydro

30

20%

New medium hydro capacity
added during 2016

35

22%

Capacity addition is a roughestimate, and may in fact be high.
Includes 60 MW plus 35 MW
explicitly listed in DPRK UNFCCC
filings--see Note 27 . Capacity factor
shown is intended to be an estimatedaverage for 2010 through 2013, and is
247 certainly also a very rough estimate.
Huichon power station #2, reportedly
brought on line in 2012, though it
apparently has a number of problems657 -see Note 26 .
Rough estimate. Includes the five
power stations on the Chongchon
River reportedly brought on line in2015 in reference 30 , plus perhaps
one or two more. Capacity factor
assumes plants are phased inrelateively evenly over the year, andhave a full-year capacity factor of
61 about 40%.
Rough estimate. Includes the
Paektusan power station identified in
DPRK UNFCCC (see note 27 ), plus
perhaps one more of a similar size.
Capacity factor assumes plants arephased in relateively evenly over theyear, and have a full-year capacity
53 factor of about 40%.
Assumes similar to 2015, andconsistent with additions reported asa part pf UNFCCC CDM projects inrecent years. Capacity factor
somewhat higher than 2015 based ontrend in output of UNFCCC-registered
66 plants.

22%

Rough estimate. Includes the
Paektusan power station #3 (seeNote 31 ), which is assumed to be
similar in size to the #2 station on
the same river (the latter identified in
DPRK UNFCCC filings--see note 27 ),plus perhaps one more of a similar
size. Capacity factor somewhat
higher than 2015 based on trend in
57 output of UNFCCC-registered plants.

New medium hydro capacity
added from 2010 through 2014

Hydro

New large hydro capacity added
during 2016
Hydro

30

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Plant Location/Category

New medium hydro capacity
added during 2017

Design Fuel

Estimated
Capacity
FactorOriginal
Operable(fraction of
Capacity Capacity as of operable(MW)
Completion
capacity)

Hydro

35

19%

New large hydro capacity added
during 2017
Hydro

40

19%

New small, medium and largehydro capacity added during
2018

Hydro

40

19%

New small, medium and largehydro capacity added during
2019

Hydro

30

19%

New small, medium and largehydro capacity added during
2020

Hydro

20

19%

Kangdong power station

Coal-fired

300

0%

A1- 279

Estimated
Output(GWh)
Notes
Assumes similar to 2015, andconsistent with additions reported asa part pf UNFCCC CDM projects inrecent years. Capacity factor
somewhat lower than 2016 based ontrend in output of UNFCCC-registered
58 plants.
Rough estimate. Could include, forexample, one or more of the Wonsanhydro plants coming on line. See
67 notes 32 through 35 .
Rough estimate. Could include, forexample, one or more of the Wonsanhydro plants coming on line. See
67 notes 32 through 35 .
Rough estimate. Could include, one
or more of the hydro plants underconstruction in various areas. See
50 notes 32 through 35 .
Rough estimate. Could include, one
or more of the hydro plants underconstruction in various areas, but
assumes less progress than inprevious years due to coronavirus
pandemic and response. See notes
33 32 through 35 .
Power station about 20 km east of
Pyongyang has been underconstruction since 2010.
Sourcewatch (see reference 29 )indicates that construction appears
to have been halted for many years.

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Recorded 2005 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2008 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2009 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2010 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2014 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2015 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2016 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2017 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2018 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2019 Electricity Exports to China
Recorded 2020 Electricity Exports to China
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2005
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2008
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2009
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2010
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2014
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2015
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2016
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2017
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2018
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2019
Input of used tires as fuel for electricity generation, 2020

90.15 GWh (see Note 2)
143.54 GWh (see Note 2)
128.89 GWh (see Note 2)
151.71 GWh (see Note 2)
222.43 GWh (see Note 2)
118.74 GWh (see Note 2)
167.23 GWh (see Note 2)
269.28 GWh (see Note 2)
279.35 GWh (see Note 2)
279.35 GWh (see Note 2)
279.35 GWh (see Note 2)
8.91E+05 GJ(See Notes 3 and 4)
0.00E+00 GJ
5.74E+02 GJ
9.72E+03 GJ
6.91E+04 GJ
8.10E+03 GJ
2.68E+04 GJ
1.41E+04 GJ
5.91E+03 GJ
5.91E+03 GJ (Assumes same as 2018)
5.91E+03 GJ (Assumes same as 2018)

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Sources/Notes:
1 For 2005, we do not yet have the same estimates of plant-by-plant operational status that we had in
2000. We therefore use as a rough guide the overall estimates of capacity and capacity factor for thermal and hydroelectric power
plants as reportedly provided by DPRK engineers to KERI (Korea Electrotechnical Research Institute) staff(and as cited in "Analysis of Present Status and Future
Supply /Demand Prospects for the DPRK Power System", by J.Y. Yoon, presented at the DPRK Energy
Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Yoon's
presentation is available as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Papers/Yoon.ppt.
A similar table also appear in the presentation "Analysis on DPRK Power Industry & Interconnection Options",by the same author, dated September 21, 2010, prepared for the DPRK Energy and Minerals Experts Work ing Group
Meeting, Beijing, China, September, 2010, and available as
http://nautilus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/01.-Yoon.ppt.
Note, however, that the estimates presented here are slightly different than those derived for 2005 in the "Electic--96-on" work sheet
in this work book , and the latter are used in the 2005 energy balance.
2 Exports from the DPRK to China from China Customs World Trade Atlas
As compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends
and Implications as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
Electricity imports to China from the DPRK, as indicated by the same source and 2008 and 2010 updates,
but from the UN Comtrade database from 2010-on, are as follows for other years:
Year
MWh
$/MWh
2000
22,665
2001
36,289
2002
9,979
2003
31,838
2004
83,3502005
90,146
2006 141,129 $27.00
2007 168,502 $28.23
2008 143,535 $30.65
2009 128,886 $32.20
2010 151,710 $32.37
2011 167,013 $33.85
2012 143,292 $35.95
2013 219,445 $37.01
2014 222,425 $
37.882015 118,743 $
39.96
2016 167,233 $34.42
2017 269,284 $40.78
2018 279,352 $40.78 No quantity reported, estimated based on 2017 priceNo electricity trade reported in Comtrade as of 5/5/2020,2019 279,352
assumed same as 2018.
2020 279,352
Assumed same as 2018
Average, 2006-2018 178,504 $35.45
2010 through 2018 values from UN COMTRADE, HS Code 2716.
No data for electricity exports from the DPRK to China are available for 1990 - 1999.

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3 Source from the industry reports that the DPRK lik ely received a total of 25,000 tonnes of used auto
tires from Japan and Taiwan in 2000 for use as a supplemental boiler fuel. The DPRK has reportedly beenrequesting similar cargoes from Europe. This estimate corresponds well with data from Japan
Customs Statistics (data from files downloaded from http://www.customs.go.jp/touk ei/download/index_d012_e.htm)
that lists year 2000 exports from Japan to the DPRK in a category (HS # 400400000) that is definedas "Waste, parings and scrap of rubber (other than hard rubber) and powders and granules obtained therefrom"at a total level of
22,156 tonnes. We use this value as the estimated input of waste tires toelectricity generation in the DPRK in 2000. For 2005, exports from Japan to the DPRK in the same category
were recorded as
25,599 tonnes. The reported value of cargoes of this product averaged about
3600 Yen/tonne in 2000, and was about 3000 Yen per tonne from 2003 through 2005. By way of comparison
these per-tonne value were less, sometimes significantly less, than the amount paid by Japan for coalexported from the DPRK to Japan in those years. Exports of this waste-rubber product werehigher in all of the other years between 2000 and 2005, peak ing at over 110,000 tonnes in 2003.
UN Comtrade statistics include these trades of scrap rubber in this HS category from Japan, and also include
smaller trades from other countries to the DPRK, as well as some trades from the DPRK to other countries,
mostly to China, mostly in years when the DPRK imported these products from Japan, and at prices higher thanthe DPRK paid Japan for the rubber imports. The table below summarizes mostly larger (greater than ~100 te)
trades in this commodity through 2019.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
TonnesImportsfrom
Other
Nations
Net ofExports

Net GJ
GJ fuelWaste
input to coalTonnes of Imports
Rubber Fuel fired powerYearfrom JapanUse Implied
plants
1990
190
6.61E+03
3.01E+08
1991
927
3.23E+04
2.88E+08
1992
88
135.4
7.78E+03
2.75E+08
1993
14
4.87E+02
2.61E+08
1994
78.2
2.72E+03
2.48E+08
1995
237
8.26E+03
2.35E+08
1996
486
235.1
2.51E+04
2.21E+08
1997
329
121.8
1.57E+04
1.77E+08
1998
1,386
4.82E+04
1.33E+08
1999
6,048
2.11E+05
8.93E+07
2000
22,15673.5
7.74E+05
4.53E+07
2001
78,882418.5
2.76E+06
5.39E+07
2002
112,928
200.3
3.94E+06
6.25E+07
2003
63,312(2,122.8)
2.13E+06
7.11E+07
2004
62,972(3,020.0)
2.09E+06
7.97E+07
2005
25,599(3,862.0)
7.57E+05
8.83E+07
2006
8,558(36.8)
2.97E+05
8.83E+07
2007
79.0
2.75E+03
8.83E+07
2008
0.00E+00
8.77E+07
2009
16.5
5.74E+02
6.94E+07
2010
279.2
9.72E+03
5.89E+07
2011
1,058.6
3.69E+04
5.89E+072012
105.4
3.67E+03
5.89E+07
2013
611.7
2.13E+04
5.89E+07
2014
1,984.3
6.91E+04
5.89E+072015
232.6
8.10E+03
8.71E+07
2016
769.0
2.68E+04
9.32E+07
2017
404.7
1.41E+04
9.07E+07
2018
169.7
5.91E+03
7.44E+072019
169.7
5.91E+03
7.44E+07
2020
169.7
5.91E+03
4.42E+07
No trades reported in Comtrade statistics for 2019 as of 5/5/2020. Values for 2019 assumed
similar to 2018

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Impliedfraction
input astires
0.002%
0.011%
0.003%
0.000%
0.001%
0.004%
0.011%
0.009%
0.036%
0.236%
1.709%
5.124%
6.303%
2.996%
2.619%
0.857%
0.336%
0.003%
0.000%
0.001%
0.016%
0.063%
0.006%
0.036%
0.117%
0.009%
0.029%
0.016%
0.008%
0.008%
0.013%Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
4 Oxford Recycling Inc. (http://www.oxfordrecycling.com/product.html#5, visited 6/8/02) lists a fuel energy
content of
15,000 Btu/lb, or
34.82 GJ/tonne, for fuel from shredded tires.
the same source lists a sulfur content of
1.30% for the same fuel.
5 An article entitled "Defector from Pyonyang: 'Thirty thousand constructing soldires were died (sic) in Guemgangsan Plant'",
by Han Yo'ng-chin, published 14 Feb, 2006, in The Daily NK WWW (Seoul), includes a reference to theAnbyun Youth Power Plant, near Mount Guemgang (Kumgang) as having a second step of construction completed
in 2000, with final construction completed in 2003, and having a capacity of 200 MW.
6 An article in KCNA in English (Pyongyang), dated 14 December, 2004, and entitled "Leader Gives Field
Guidance to Construction of Power Station", refers to the under-construction Orangch'on (hydro) Power Plant
in North Hamgyong Province. The generating room of "Power Station No. 1" is described as "entering the construction stage".
7 An article in KCNA in English (Pyongyang), dated 26 May, 2005, and entitled "Kim Jong Il Visits
Wo'nsan Power Station", refers to the under-construction Wo'nsan Youth Power Station (hydro)
in Kangwo'n Province. This plant seems to be in the construction phase, with the dam at least partiallycompleted. No figures on capacity are given.
8 An article in KCNA in Korean (Pyongyang), dated 19 September, 2005, and entitled "DPRK Leader Visits
Moranbong Theater Under Reconstruction", includes a reference to the construction of a series of "10 small- and medium-sized
power plants in tiers along [the] To'k chi River", with the implication that construction of the dam and related elements
are complete or nearly so. The article also references the completion and starting of the To'k chinggang No.9
power plant, and refers to an under-construction No. 4 power plant. No information on plant capacity is provided.
9 An broadcast by KCNA in Korean (Pyongyang), dated 20 December, 2005, and on the subject "DPRK TV on Leader'sInspiring People to Build New Power Plants on 'Large Scale'", includes reference to the Naep'yo'ng No. 2 Kunmin Power
Plant and the Wo'nsan Youth Power Plant, and notes that "Kim Jong Il visited all the power plant construction sites in the
country for the last 10 years." The transcript of the broadcast also refers to the volume of the dam at the
Wo'nsan Youth Power Plant as 1.7 million cubic meters, with 16 k m of aqueducts, and refers to assembly ofgenerators No. 2 through 5. There is also a reference to the Ku'mjingang Hu'ngbong Youth Power Plant inSouth Kamgyo'ng Province on the Ku'mjin River, to "large scale hydraulic power plants" such as theOrangch'o'n Power Plant and the Paek tusan So'ngun Youth Power Plant, plus "scores of" small and medium-scale power
plants including the "(Word Indistinct) No. 2 Railway Youth Power Plants, the Naso'n Youth Power Plant, the Singye Kunmin
power plant, the (Word Indistinct) Mine No. 2 Power plant, [and the] (? Taegak ) Youth Power Plant."
There is a reference to a photo of "one or a power plant of the Susongch'o'n Second-stage Five Powr Plants".
10 An article in Korea Today (Pyongyang, via Naenara Internet, in English), dated 12 January, 2006, includes aninterview with Kim Su Nam, "Bureau Director of the Ministry of Electric and Coal Industries". In the interview, Kim states,in part, "A large number of hydroelectric power stations have been built, including the Taedonggang, Namgang,
Anbynon Youth, Thaechon, and Kanggye Youth Power Stations. Hydroelectric generating capacity
has steadily grown with the builiding of many minor hydropower stations on the principle of combining large, medium,and small power plants. Along with this, thermal power plants have been erected in Pyongyang, Puk chang, Sunchon, andother parts of the country to meet the growing demand for electricity." The interview also refers to the completed
construction of a dam of the Nyongwon Power Station, and to medium and (smaller) power stations in Jagang, South
Haymgyyong, Ryanggang, and other provinces. Kim also refers to efforts to increase capacity at existinghydro and thermal power stations.

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11 The article in Nodong Sinmun (Pyongyang, in Korean), dated 29 December, 2002, page 1, by Chong Yong-ch'ol,"At North Hwanghae Province: Power Plants Wherever the Water Flows", refers to power plants including
the Yosonggang Power Plant in North Hwanghae Province, power plants in Yont'an and Unp'a County, a power plantin P'yongsan County, a power plant in Kok san County (on the stream of the same name), a plant at Taech'on-ri
in Insan County, plants under construction in Singye and Yonsan Counties (Singye Power Plant No. 1, and Hwangdaech'on
Power Plant, respectively, with the latter apparently in early construction phases, and the former more advanced).
There is a reference to "power plant constructed at Holdong Mine".
12 The table below is from http://www.asiatradehub.com/n.k orea/power.asp., "Asia Trade Hub: North Korea, Energy (Power)"
The year to which these data apply was not recorded, but seems lik ely to be 2000 or shortly thereafter.
The ultimate source of these data is unk nown.
Hydraulic Power Plants

Eastern Region

Western Region

Name

Location

Soedusoo

North
Hamkyung

The Huhchon River

39.4

The Changjin River

South
Hamkyung"

A valleyremodeling
type
"

38.1

"

The Pujon River

"

26.2

"

Anbyon Youth

Kangw on10

A dam-type

Soopung

70"

TaechonNorth
Pyongan"40

Woonbong

Jagang40

A valleyremodelingtype and a dam
type
A dam-type

Wiw on"39"

Kanggye Youth

"

24.6

The Daedong River

South
PyonganNorth
PyonganJagang20

A valleyremodelingtype
A dam type19"

Taepyongman
The Jangja River

Capacity (Unit:
10,000 kw )51

9Remarks"

TOTAL of Above

426.3

Therm al Pow er Plants

Eastern Region

Name

Location

Seonbong

North
Hamkyung
ChongjinChongjinWestern Region

Bukchang
Pyongyang
The Chongchon River
Soonchon

Capacity (Unit: Remarks
10,000 kw )
20
15

South
PyonganPyongyang

169

South
Pyongan
South

20

A condensed
w ater typeA
combinedheat type
"

20

"

50

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13 Note from presentation by DPRK Delegation, "THE PROSPECT OF ELECTRICAL ENERGYDEVELOPMENT IN DPRK AND REGIONAL CO OPERATION IN NORTH EAST ASIA," September 31, 2003.
From Nautilus Institute 3rd Work shop on Grid Interconnection in Vladivostok , Russia, September 31, 2003.
"Puk Chang thermal power plant at center of electrical system of DPRK has capacity of 1,600,000 k W.
All hydro plants connected to Puk Chang through 220k W network ."14 The table below (which has been edited slightly for clarity) was provided in the KERI presentations referenced in
Note 1. It lists capacity in small and medium power plants, but notes that "effect of small power plant was not high".
A trend toward construction of larger-capacity "medium" hydro plants is noted.
Units: kW
Category

As o f 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Planned (number)
Number Cons truc ted (underc ons truc tion)

6,840

370

250

?

100

43

6,615

98

40

30

10

48(18)

6,841(18)

Capac ity (kW)292,000

24,50030,00030,00020,00086,400470900*kW/ unit

31

250

750

1,000

800

1,800

*Total as s hown in pres entations appears to be inc orrec t. Ac tual total of v alues through 2005 is

Total

482,900 kW

15 2006 source in Note 1 cites estimates of total DPRK (central station) generation in approxmately 2004 ranging from 16.3 TWh (KERI estimate,based on data provided by DPRK) to 20.4 (ROK government estimate). We feel that the former is lik ely closer to actual
DPRK generation. The year 2010 source in Note 1 cites a range from 16.5 to 25.5 TWh for generation in approximately 2007-2008.
16 A source familiar with the DPRK energy sector suggests that about 3.9 GW of hydroelectric capacity was operable
as of 2004, which is consistent with the estimate provided here.
17 Table below is from Some Thoughts on DPRK’s Natural Geological Conditions and Their Evaluation - On the Distribution andDevelopment of Hydropower Resources and the Electric Industry , by Professor Sagong Jun, Korea University in Japan, Available as
http://www1.k orea-np.co.jp/pk /112th_issue/99091601.htm
Hydraulic Resources in DPRK (II)
Name
GWh
(%)
Amrok (Yalu) River
39,635.00
47.9
Tumen River
8,134.61
9.5
Taedon River
7,508.17
9.1
Chongchon River
4,407.00
5.3
Rimjin River (north)
2,806.10
3.4
Pukhang River (north)
3,422.10
4.1
Resong River
701.340.8
Songchon River
1,675.00
2.0
Kumya River
1,617.17
2.0
Tanchonnam River
1,692.40
2.0
Orangchon River
1,451.80
1.8
Kiljunam River
7,670.80
0.9
TOTAL OF ABOVE
80,721.49
88.8
Units in original source given as "1,000,000 k w/h", but apparently GWh is the intended unit.
Above corresponds to9.21 average GW of power.

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18 Li Dunqiu, in his presentation "DRPK’s Reform & Sino-DPRK Economic Cooperation", as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts
Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo Alto, CA, USA, and available as
http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Papers/Li.ppt, notes the following power exchange project between China and the DPRK,
presumably starting in 2005 or 2006:"Jilin Province has reached “barter” agreement with DPRK, transmitting electricity to DPRK in exchange of exploitation rights of its
Youth Copper Mine. The project has a total investment of 0.22 billion RMB and represents DPRK’s typical experiment inexchanging electricity with mineral [resources]."
19 NK Economy Watch, in a compilation of recent news and other information releases describing recently completed or underconstruction hydroelectric power plants in the DPRK, lists the following plants and units.
Summarized from a search of hydroelectric plant articles, the most recent of which (3/23/2011), is entitled "DPRK to sell carbon credits",
and derived from http://www.nk econwatch.com/2011/03/23/dprk -to-sell-carbon-credits/.
Eight power plants were included in a February, 2011 listing provided to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:
as DPRK projects that might qualify for credits. No additional Information on size or other parameters were provided to the UNFCCC by the DPRK, though
an earlier post quoted Bernhard Seliger, "the [Hanns Seidel] foundation’s representative in South Korea, [as saying that] North Korea is initiallylook ing at trying to get approval for three hydro power plants of 7-8 megawatts (MW)." We assume this means 7-8 MW each.
Selinger was also quoted as saying “We are talk ing about eight power plants, with the smallest size about 7.5 megawatts. These are not big projects
but small or medium-sized projects,” and that none of the projects had been completed.

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Name/Location

Location/Google
Earth Image

Notes

Stations on UNFCCC List of 2011
Hamhung Hydropower Plant No.1
Hamhung 20MW Hydropower Plant No. 2

Kumya Hydropower Plant
Paekdusan Songun Youth 14MW Hydropower Project No.2
Ryesonggang Hydropower Project No. 3
Ryesonggang Hydropower Project No. 4
Ryesonggang Hydropower Project No. 5

39.574232°, 127.104736°;
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/KumyaDam-Construction.jpg
Under construction as of 2008
See "Paektusan…"
stations below

Wonsangunmin 20MW Hydropower Project No. 1

Presumably Project #1 of the 4 Wonsan units below.

Other Stations Described in NK Economy Watch (reference above)

Kumjingang Power Station

Kumjingang Hungbong Youth Power Station
Kumjingang Kuchang Youth Power Station

Wonsan Youth Power Stations No’s. 1-4

Orangchon Power Station No. 1

Anbyon Youth Power Stations No’s 1 & 2

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/KumjinRiver-Power-Stations.jpg Started in 2000, complete as of 2011
DPRK Economy Watch describes as under construction as of 2011,
but "Korea is one" website (http://www.korea-isHamju County, South
one.org/spip.php?mot111), based on a KCNA report, describes plant
Hamgyong Province
as completed in April, 2005.
Complete as of 2011
Started construction in 2009. "These projects required the
http://www.nkeconwatch.c construction of both the Kuryong Reservoir and an appx 8.5 mileom/nk-uploads/wonsan(13.69km) tunnel to link the hydro power stations with their power
youth-powerstations-3source". At least one unit ("Chungnyun") described as being complete
2011.jpg.
in early 2009 (NK Today 298, 10/2009, No. 293, 8/2009)http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/OrangchonPower-Station.jpg
Begun by 2007, completed by 201138.954400°, 127.538912°,
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/Orangchon- Fed by 45 km tunnel from Imnam
Power-Station.jpg
Reservoir.

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Name/Location

Location/Google
Earth Image

Notes

Stations on UNFCCC List of 2011

Paektusan Songun Youth Power Stations (1 and 2)

38.367696°, 126.781096°,
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nkuploads/RyesonggangPower station 1 completed 2007, #2 and #6 also complete, others
Power-1-6Stations.jpg
presumaby under construction.
41.716931°, 128.786163°,
http://www.nkeconwatch.c Also probably called "Mt. Baekdu Military First Power Plant",
om/nk-uploads/Paektusan- mentioned as completed (at least one unit) in NK Today, 375,
Power-Station-GE.jpg
November 2010.

Pukchang Ryongsan Power Station

39.596238°, 126.266478°,
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/PukchangRyongsan-Powerstation.jpg
Construction began 2002, apparently continuing as of 2011

Ryesonggang Youth Power Stations 1-6

Huichon (also "Heecheon") Youth Power Stations (1 - 5). Capacity 300 MW(probably for units 1 or 1 and 2, but not clear)

Jagang Province, upper
part of Chung-chun riverCompletion of units 1 and 2 apparently scheduled for 2012, with units 3- 5 scheduled for 2015 (NK Today #297, 9/2009). Armed forces units
are heavily involved in construction, and locals residents, North Koreanbusinesses, and Chinese trading companies operating in the DPRK
have been asked to provide funds toward its construction (see, forexample, NK Today, No. 291, 8/2009).

Other Stations Mentioned in 2007 - July 2011 Issues of North Korea TodayUrang River Hydroelectric Dam

Dae-Ryeng-Gang No. 2 Power plant

Unit 1 apparently complete at 60 MW as of 2007, Units 2-5 (total
capacity 23 MW apparently started in 1988, restarted in 2008, andNorth Hamgyong Province under construction as of 2011
Power output down 40% from previous year due to problems withturbine and maintenance. Plant is apparently relatively small (NKTaechun County
Today No 285, 7.2009).

Stations Under Construction on Yalu River mentioned in NK Economy Watch, 4/4/2010, http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2010/04/04/dprk-prc-plan-two-more-yalu-riverdams
Each dam reportedly 40 MW, with planned annual output of 154 GWh(implying a capacity factor of about 44%), total cost of $160 M,
apparently paid by China. How the output is to be shared is unclear.
Construction apparently began in Spring of 2010, with completion
planned for 2013. "The plants will each produce 154 million kilowattYalu River near Jian, Jilin
hours per year. The Wangjianglou dam is 397 metres long and 16
Wangjianglou or Lintu
Province, China--see Notemetres high, while Wenyue is 602.7 metres long and 15.5 metres high.
25
They are 36 and 24 km from Ji’an, respectively and are 1.5 and 5.5 km
from North Korean railway stations (Rinto린토 and Mun’ak 문악 – these
are the Korean names of the dams)." Reference for quote:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2010/04/04/dprk-prc-plan-two-more-yaluWenyue or Changchuanriver-dams/

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20 The following, from North Korea Today No.267 February 2009, describes coal supply to the Pyongyang power plant.
Ryongdae Coalmine in Sungchun City Fails to Supply the Pyongyang Thermoelectric Power Plant
Ryongdae Coal Mine, located in the Workers District, new Sungchun, in Sungchun County of South Pyongan Province, has been
supplying its partial production to the Pyongyang Thermoelectric Power Plant. However, there has been a recent failure in sup ply,
due to low productivity volume. The production level has dropped to about 27,000 MT a month. This coal mine had produced over
100,000 MT a month and about 1,000,000 MT a year.
At

500 MW, and a capacity factor of
75% and with coal averaging
23.35 GJ/tonne, and an efficiency of
21% (all starting assumptions), the impliedannual use of coal at the Pyongyang power plant would be
2,412,086 If the Ryongdae mine was the main supplier ofcoal to the Pyongyang plant, the information above implies that the average capacity factor was about
31% formerly, and now is about
8.4% . As it is unclear that this mine isthe only source of coal for the Pyongyang plant, and as some of the coal for the plant goes to heat-only boilers, this calculation
is incomplete, but it suggests that there is reason to show a decrease in power output for thermal plants through 2009.
21 This calculation assumes that the average capacity factor for DPRK hydroelectric capacity in 2009, 2010, and 2014 was similar to that in 2008.
In fact, it is clear that hydro output in the DPRK differs, at least in different areas of the DPRK, with the timing and amount of
rainfall received (based on anecdotal information from a number of sources), but we have no specific information that would allow
us to estimate how the relative hydroelectric output differed in the three years.
22 Several sources in Korean (including NODONG SINMUN, DPRK, 28 OCTOBER 2000, 3 and 8 NOVEMBER 2005,
and 22 MAY 2006, and MINJU CHOSON, DPRK, 15 NOVEMBER 2005) refer to a 11 MW power plant called"THE NAEP'YONG NO. 2 ARMY-CIVILIAN HYDROELECTRIC POWERPLANT", in Sep'o County, Kwangwon Province.
This plant appears to have begun operation in 2005 or so. It produces power for the Korean People's Army.
Information from the photo below includes the following:
RIVER BASIN -- 1,021 SQUARE KILOMETERS (SQ KM), MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL -- 177.5 M, EFFECTIVE FALL (hydraulic head) -- 28 m,
MAXIMUM WATER CONSUMPTION -- 51.30 CUBIC M PER SECOND, DAM HEIGHT -- 31.30 M, LENGTH OF LEVEE, 41.58 m,
LENGTH OF IRON PIPE CONDUIT -- 83.00 m. Rainfall data from nearby counties suggest that rainfall in the area is 1.2 to 1.5 meters/yr,
based on data from county observation stations.

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23 The table below is from Enipedia, http://enipedia.tudelft.nl/wik i/North_Korea/Powerplants_Without_Power_Conversion_Units,"North Korea/Powerplants Without Power Conversion Units"
The year to which these data apply was not recorded, but the website lists "date last modified" as 2011.
The ultimate source of these data is unk nown.
OutputPowerplant
Owner
Fuel type(MWh)
Pukchang Powerplant

Pukchang Thermal Plant
ComplexSupung Dam Dprk Powerplant

Korea-china Hydroelec Power

Pyongyang Powerplant

Pyongyang Power Plant

1,167,045

Kyosenko Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

961,959

Unbong Powerplant

Korea-china Hydroelec Power

Hydro

920,535

Taechon Hydro Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

Hydro

920,535

Hochon River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

Laohushao B Powerplant

Korea-china Hydroelec PowerHydro

897,522

Wiwon Powerplant

Korea-china Hydroelec PowerHydro

897,522

Changjin River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

5,017,987
Hydro

1,449,843

906,727

880,262

Taechon Metal Works Powerplant Taechon Metal Works

669,489

Pujon River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

598,348

Taepeungman Powerplant

Korea-china Hydroelec Power

Chonchon River Powerplant

Chonchongang Power Plant

530,121

East Pyongyang Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

516,762

Daedong River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

460,268

Kanggye Youth Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

434,953

Sodusu (march 17)-1 Powerplant Ministry Of Power Industry

414,241

Chongjin River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

390,449

Sodusu (march 17)-2 Powerplant Ministry Of Power Industry

373,664

Sodusu (march 17)-3 Powerplant Ministry Of Power Industry

345,201

Shoko Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

331,393

Anbyon Youth Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

230,134

Kokai Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

220,928

Hydro

575,334

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Owner

Donro-gang Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

207,120

Jangja River Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

207,120

Fusenko Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

180,931

Taechon Youth Hydro-3
Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

Hydro

138,080

Taechon Youth Hydro-4
Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

Hydro

138,080

December (nampo) Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

127,642

Sonbong (unggi) Powerplant

Sonbong (unggi) Power Plant

121,512

Oranchon Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

103,560

Bu-dzan-gan Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

80,547

Mirimkapmun Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

73,643Pu-ryong Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

59,605

Sunchon Vinalon Powerplant

Sunchon Vinalon Complex

51,080Bongwhaskapum Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

46,027

Hongnam Fertilizer Powerplant

Hongnam Fertilizer Plant

45,757

Anju Youth Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

34,520Eogidon Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

34,520Tongchun Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

32,219Kumgansan Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

31,068Heungman Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

30,481

Dprk West Coast Refinery
Powerplant

Dprk West Coast Refinery

27,816

Chunma (bui) Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

27,616

Najungri Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

27,616

Kilju Pulp Mill Powerplant

Kilju Pulp Mill

22,851Chongjin Chemical Powerplant

Chongjin Chemical Fiber Plant

15,228Songlim Powerplant

Ministry Of Power Industry

2,222

Unhi-ra Powerplant

Korea Peace Committee

SUM OF ABOVE

Fuel typeOutput(MWh)Powerplant27

21,978,110

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24 In a China CCTV-4 report on the DPRK drought in early 2012, the recently completed (meaning, probably, one of
the units has b een completed), Hu'ich'o'n Power Plant in Hu'ich'o'n City of Chagang Province, in the northwest partof the DPRK, was listed as having a design capacity of
300 MW, and a design output
of
980 GWh/yr. This implies a capacity factor of
37.3% , which is in the range of our assumptions for an average DPRKhydroelectric capacity factor. Reference: Beijing CCTV-4 in Chinese, 15 June, 2012.
25 Photos on these powerplants from Google Maps, https://www.google.com/maps/@40.9002996,125.9717221,1087m/data=!3m1!1e3 for the Wenyue (or Changchuan) dam,and https://www.google.com/maps/@41.3799715,126.5166998,1473m/data=!3m1!1e3
Below probably Weiyuan (or Wiwon) Dam (South of/downriver from Ji'an, China)

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Below probably Yunfeng dam (North of Ji'an, China)

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Below probably Changchuan dam (North of Ji'an, China)

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26 The Huichon power plant, which has a reported capacity of
300 MW, was reportedly brought on line in April of 2012. The plant is one of several to be developedon the Chongchon River in Northern DPRK, and reportedly improved power supplies in Pyongyang in some periods. See "N. Korea completes new power plant to tack le energy shortage",
Yonghap news agency, dated 2012/04/06 ,available as http://english.yonhapnews.co.k r/northk orea/2012/04/06/47/0401000000AEN20120406001900315F.HTML.
Numerous other articles about this plant exist, but few provide much information about its generation capacity. One blog post states"The dam is reported to be more than 300ft high and 1,800ft wide and capable of storing 850 million cubic metres of water.", but also suggests that it has aserious structural defect (Rich Lennon, May 24, 2013, availabe as https://www.facebook .com/DragonsParadox/posts/4975149101259, though othernews stories mak e the same claim). Rainer (2014) also lists the capacity of the Huichon #2 power plant at 300 MW
See http://www.univie.ac.at/k oreanologie/fileadmin/user_upload/DigitalNK/Forschungsarbeit/Huichon.pdf.
Multiple sources indicate that the drought in 2014 (and 2015) had a siginificant impact on hydroelectric output, but few source offer numerical estimates as to theas to the impact on output. One story, "North Korea Newsletter 368 (June 25, 2015) " by Yonghap News Agency, referencing a Reuters report, indicates that hydroelectric
output in 2015 was affected as follows "Reuters reported on May 30 that many hydro power plants in North Korea have suspended operation, reducing the nation's power generation by half."(source, http://english.yonhapnews.co.k r/full/2015/06/24/49/1200000000AEN20150624007300325F.html). We assume that the drought has resulted a significant decrease in2014 hydroelectric output. We assume that relative to 2008, hydro output in existing dams shared with China (along the Yalu river) decreased by
20% , andhydro output in other large and medium hydro plants is also reduced by
20% relative to 2008. For the Huichon #2 plant, we assume a capacity factor for 2014 of
25% , which
is designed to tak e into account the impacts of the combination of the drought plus reported structural problems in reducing what would be an average 45-50% capacity factor fora DPRK hydroelectric plant. We also assume that a "normal year" output for medium-sized hydro plants added in 2006 through 2010 was about
30% .
27 The following data describe the size and output of six hydroelectric plants registered with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as
DPRK CDM projects. Data obtained from documents on the UNFCCC CDM website https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html.
MWh Annual Net Generation
Capacity
Plant
First Operation(MW)
Hamhung Hydro Power Plant #1
Dec-1310
Kumya Hydropower Plant
PaekdusanSongun Youth 14
MW Hydropower Project No.2
Ryesonggang Hydropower Plant
No.4
Ryesonggang Hydropower Plant
No.5
Ryesonggang Hydropower Plant
No.3
Totals
Implied aggregate annual
capacity factor (for plants whileon line)

2012
-

2013
50

2014
24,855

2015
25,392

2016
29,8752017
Location
30,472 39°39′25′ N 127°15′01′′ E

48

16,256

17,394

19,462

14,909 39°34′22′′N 127°07′08′′E

Dec-13

7.5

10/1/2015

14

-

-

-

8,675

52,68052,263 41°43′18′′ N 128°50′15′ E

11/28/2014

5

-

-

1,303

26,251

24,747

19,100 38°18′02′′ N 126°31′42′′ E

11/30/2013

7.5

-

2,646

31,24632,33531,64530,243 38º15′35′′ N 126º29′41′ E

10/11/2013

5
49

-

1,868
4,612

26,397100,056

26,911
136,958

29,209187,617

18,924 38°19′42′′ N 126°34′03′′ E
165,91129.77%

37.55%

40.61%

43.71%

38.65%

From the comparison of capacity factors in 2016 and 2017 un the data above, plus news of 2017 and 2018 (and 2019) drought in the DPRK
(See, for example, IFRC (2019), "Information bulletin: DPR Korea: Drought and Food Insecurity", dated April 30, 2019, and available
as https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IBDPRKDFI04302019.pdf), we assume that hydroelectic capacity factors werereduced in 2017 and 2018 by about
12% for all hydro in the DPRK, relative to 2016.

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28 What appears to be a large hydroelectric project is underway at Tanchon, with groundbreaking in approximately 2017. Hamish MacDonald (2017),"North Korea begins work on major power station in Tanchon", NK News, dated May 19, 2017, available
as https://www.nknews.org/2017/05/north-korea-begins-work-on-major-power-station-in-tanchon/?c=1529546145196
A report by the Korea Friends Association of the UK (on Facebook) as of March 2019 suggests that the project is "at 80 percent", presumably meaning 80 percent complete.
See https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?id=223522167739886&story_fbid=2124476950977722.
Following images from Google Earth, as of April 18, 2019. Coordinates of dam are approximately 40.804905, 128.448379, and length of dam is approximately 130 meters.
As of the date of these images, it looks like the dam is complete or near complete, but that the impoundment behind the dam was not yet being filled.

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29 Kangdong power station is reported by Sourcewatch (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Kangdong_power_station) to have been under construction
since 2010-2011, but with little progress between 2013 and 2017. The plant does not yet appear to be operational, and based on the Google Maps image
below, appears unlik ely to have progressed much in recent months. The nominal capacity of the plant is listed as 300 MW.
Following images from Google Earth, as of June 28, 2019. Images are probably from winter of 2019. Coordinates are 39.0019936, 126.1619389.
Image of this location in Google Maps as of 2/17/2020 appears identical to that below.

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30 See North Korea Economy Watch (2015 and 2016), "Some Huichon Power Stations go operational on Chongchon River", initial article quoting
Rodong Sinmun (2015-11-9), with an undated update in approximately mid 2016.
Available as https://www.nk econwatch.com/2015/11/10/some-huichon-power-stations-go-operational-on-chongchon-river/.
There appear to be a number of power stations completed or under construction on the Chongchon river as of mid-2019. An example, from Google Earth,coordinates 40.0290466,126.1781053, appears below, and includes what appears to be a sk ating rink carved out of river ice, presumably for use by theresidents of the adjacent city of Kuwollim. In an article entitled "Progress in North Korea’s renewable energy production", dated February 15th, 2016,
NK Economy Watch quoted the Institute for Far Eastern Studies as saying "...the recently constructed Chongchon power plant which took three years tocomplete and has a total output of 430,000 k W". Look ing at the hydro plants on the Chongchon river, which seem to have modest head and relatively
limited impoundments (thereby more "run-of-river" type plants), our guess is that even assuming this figure is intended to be a total for all 11 (or so) or theplants on the river, the estimate of capacity is lik ely to be an order of magnitute or so too high, perhaps as a result of a units reporting error.
But we have no solid data on the capacity of these plants.

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31 NK Economy Watch (2016), "Uptick in North Korea’s Renewable Energy Production", dated November 17th, 2016, andavailable as http://www.nk econwatch.com/category/energy/damshydro/.
32 Industry About lists the capacity of the Wonsan #1 hydro plant as 40 MW.
Available as https://www.industryabout.com/country-territories-3/2392-north-k orea/hydro-energy/51250-wonsan-youth-1-hydro-power-plant.
33 The Business Times, in "Dark nights in power-starved North Korea", dated Oct 04, 2017, lists the rated capacity of Wonsan Hydro Plant# 5, quoting a DPRK engineer, as "...complex's total capacity is 60,000 k W/h, actual production is a fraction of that" and"We have normalised our production rate at 25,000 k ilowatts per hour,' he told AFP - little more than 40 per cent.". The units appear incorrect,
but assuming what is meant is 60 MW and 25 MW as an actual maximum output, it implies that the Wonsan plants have capacities on the orderof a few tens of MW each.
34 CNN (2017), "Secret State A journey into the heart of North Korea", mentions the Wonsan #4 power plant as having been recently completed in
Chapter 2 focusing on the city of Wonsan. Available as https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/09/asia/north-k orea-secret-state/.
35 The report North Korea’s Hydroelectric Power – Part I, by Peter Mak owsk y, Jenny Town and Samantha Pitz of 38 North, dated July 3, 2019
and available as https://www.38north.org/2019/07/hydropower070319/, provides images of a number of recent and under-construction DPRKhydroelectric plants. One of the largest, at about 70-80 meters tall and about 360 meters across, as measured using Google Earth Pro, is
the Orangchon Power Station at the Phalhyang Dam on the Orangchon River, has reportedly been under construction since 1981, but
has not been completed. A visit by Chairman Kim Jong Un apparently has increased the pace of construction. The images below, respectively
for 5/2/2019 and 9/27/2019, are from Google Earth Pro, The later image shows significant additional construction completed, and the reservoir
largely full. Water is coming out of the spillway at the top of the dam, and there appear to be spots of seepage lower on the dam, though it
is hard to tell for certain. We assume that this power station was not yet on line as of 2019, and is not lik ely to be on line in 2020, although
it does appear to be a priority project for the DPRK.

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36 The article "Samsu Power Plant fails to meet demand, frustrating local residents", by Mun Dong Hui, Daily NK , dated 2019.01.31,
available as https://www.dailynk .com/english/samsu-power-plant-fails-to-meet-demand-frustrating-local-residents/, suggests that
the Samsu plant near Hyesan, south of Mount Paek tu, is not performing as designed, and has some leak age problems.
The dam measures approximately 50 meters high and 550 meters long, based on measurements from Google Earth Pro.
An image of the dam as of October 2018 is provided below (also from Google Earth Pro).

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37 Another larger hydro project underway since about 2017 is the Tanchon River project, involving several power stations and dams, and large-scaletransfer of water, some from other river basins, via a series of tunnels that in aggregate may be on the order of 100 k m long. An official interviewed
about the project by a DPRK publication described the overall capacity of the project as several hundred megawatts. The project is described inthe 38 North publication North Korea’s Hydroelectric Power – The Tanchon Power Station Project , dated October 11, 2019, byPeter Mak owsk y, Jenny Town and Samantha Pitz, and available as https://www.38north.org/2019/10/hydropower101119/. One element of the project,
the Sinhong dam, shown below, appears to be about 15-20 meters tall and 130 meters long, and is located at approximatly 40.805, 128.449.
The Hochongang power station, with its associated incoming penstock s and substation, located at approxiately 40.782, 128.446, is also shown below.

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35 The report North Korea’s Hydroelectric Power – Part II, by Peter Makowsky, Jenny Town and Samantha Pitz of 38 North, dated August 29, 2019
and available as https://www.38north.org/2019/08/hydropower082919/, provides images of a number of recent and under-construction DPRKhydroelectric plants in the small-medium size range, focusing on the" hydroelectric dams of the Jangja (Changja) and Taeryong Rivers" in the Northwest of the DPRK.
This 38 North analysis includes four plants/dams on the Taeryong River, the Taechon power stations, built in 2004 and 2006, andapproximately six dams on the Jangja River, which the authors describe as mostly constructed by 2009, except two of more recent
vintage, and one that was still under construction as of February 2019, but appeared to be nearing operational status. Although no capacity figures for these dams
are provided, we assume that the characterization of "small to medium" suggests that they are in the megawatts to low tens of megawatts capacity range.
Data on District Heat Use from 2008 DPRK Census
The 2008 DPRK Census (D P R Korea 2008 Population Census National Report, Central Bureau of Statistics Pyongyang, DPR Korea, 2009, available as
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/North_Korea/Final%20national%20census%20report.pdf),
includes a table (52) on heating energy use in the DPRK. This table suggests that in 2008, a total of
263,809 households
used (presumably primarily) "Central or local heating system[s]". Over 99 percent of these were in urban areas, about 97 percent were in apartment buildings,
and99.2% were in Pyongyang. This suggests that as of 2008, about
7.37% , which
seems consistent with both the assumptions above and a supposition that few themal central heating and/or power plants were built after 1990
(the construction of the East Pyongyang plant in the 1990s being a notable exception).
Assumptions for post-1990 District Heat (DH) Production Parameters
We assume generally that district heat production matches district heat usage, which is assumed similar to electricity availabilty in the
Urban Residential and Public/Commercial sectors. Beyond that, assumptions related to district heat production are as follows. Theseassumptions follow the premise that infrastructure related to district heating, similar to electricity generation and T&D infrastructure,
has continued to degrade in the years since 1990, but at a decreasing rate since about 2000, and has not been extended substantially over time.
Post-2010, the capacity factor of district heating systems is assumed to rise slightly, with better coal availability, with a larger rise in 2017as more coal is available at reduced prices due to coal export restrictions as a result of UNSC sanctions.
Parameter
District Heat distribution losses
Efficiency of heat-only boilers for DH
Fraction of fuel as HFO for heat-onlyboilers (assumes same as coal-fired
electricity generation)
Capacity Factor of heat-only DH boilers
relative to 1990 estimate
Implied gross heat output of heat-only
DH boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied Coal input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied HFO input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied DH used from electricity
generation boilers as a fraction of total
fuel input
1990 -->
2.62%

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

18%
65%

20%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

6.20%

28.36%

3.59%

8.92%

2.0%

2.0%

70%

35%

50%

45%

45%

45%

1,710,419

855,210

1,221,728

1,099,555

1,099,555

1,099,555

2,468,266

988,181

1,899,846

1,615,353

1,737,563

1,738,007

163,148

391,189

70,683

158,123

35,91335,470

2.14%

5.41%

4.26%

4.83%

5.18%

5.69%

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Parameter
District Heat distribution losses
Efficiency of heat-only boilers for DH

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

1.2%

1.9%

1.9%

2.8%

46%

47%

47%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Implied gross heat output of heat-only
DH boilers (GJ/yr)

1,123,990

1,148,424

1,148,424

1,221,728

1,221,728

1,221,728

1,221,728

Implied Coal input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)

1,779,620

1,816,363

1,816,826

1,946,154

1,933,680

1,934,074

1,915,354

Implied HFO input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)

33,26635,93535,471

24,37536,84936,45555,175

Implied DH used from electricity
generation boilers as a fraction of total
fuel input

2.97%

3.69%

3.65%

3.69%

4.80%

4.07%

10.52%

Fraction of fuel as HFO for heat-onlyboilers (assumes same as coal-fired
electricity generation)
Capacity Factor of heat-only DH boilers
relative to 1990 estimate

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Workpapers—Energy Demand Sectors
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:
ESTiMATE OF DISTRICT HEATING USE
Prepared by David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/23/2020

District heating is used in several DPRK cities, but very little information is available with which to estimate theextent of district heating. The following estimate should therefore be regarded as very rough.
Size of existing heat-only boilers at Pyongyang Power Plant(see Note 16 in "Electric--2000" worksheet in this workbook).
Or the equivalent of

2 units at
100 Gcal/hr rating (assumedly, heat output).
7,330,368 GJ/yr (at full capacity for the entire year).

Total MWe of major thermal power plants described as "combined type"(see Note 12 in "Electric--2005_2008" worksheet in this workbook).
Total full-time equivalent months of heat production by both types of plants
Average ratio of heat output to electricity output in combine-type plants
Implied heat output (as of 1990) in Pyongyang Heat-only boilers

1000 (rated capacity)
4 months/yr (Assumption)
1 Assumption
2,443,456 GJ/yr.

Assuming a capacity factor of
75% for combined heat and power plants over the heating months above, usefulheat output produced by these plants in 1990 would be
7,884,000 GJ/yr.
This is the equivalent of
2.62% of the total heat input to coal-fired power plants in 1990.
Our estimate for the annual 1990 use of coal per urban household is
52.74 GJ/yr
Assuming that
90% of that is for space and water heat, and an average boiler efficiency of
55% , the implied heat delivered per household is
26.11 GJ/yr
Assuming an average rate of losses in district heating systems of
15% , the actual delivery of heatfrom district heating boilers and combined heat and power systems would be
8,778,338 GJ/yr
This would be sufficient to supply
336,254 households, or approximately
13%
of Urban households in 1990.
District heat is also used in the Public/Commercial sector. In 1990, our estimate is that coal use for the pubic/commercial sector was
0.82 GJ per square meter, which, assuming that
90% of coal use
was for heating and water heating, and an average boiler efficiency of
60% , the implied heat delivered per
square meter of floorspace would be
0.44 . At this rate, the output of the district heating and combined heat andpower plants would be enough to provide heat for
16,812,680 square meters of floorspace, or about
42% of the total estimated Public/Commercial floorspace in the DPRK, if all heat from these systems
were used in the Public/Commercial sectors.
We make the assumption that Public/Commercial space is somewhat more likely than residential space to be served by district heat,since such space is more likely to be centrally located in a city. We therefore assume that
15% ofPublic/Commercial heat demand was met by central heat-only boilers or district heating systems in 1990. This means that theamount of heat used in the Public/Commercial sector was
2,644,289 GJ/yr of delivered heat, or
3,110,928 GJ/yr of heat at the generator, or
30.1% of heat produced for district heating systems would
be used in the Public/Commercial sector, meaning that
6,134,049 GJ/yr of heat was used in 1990 by the residential sector, or
enough for
234,964 households, or
8.755% of urban households.
We assume that the average efficiency of heat-only district heat boilers was
70% in 1990, and that those boilers were fueledwith
97.9% coal and
2.1% heavy fuel oil (used as a starter fuel) in that year.
These assumptions imply usage of
3,417,348 GJ of coal, and73,304 GJ of heavy oil in 1990.

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Data on District Heat Use from 2008 DPRK Census
The 2008 DPRK Census (D P R Korea 2008 Population Census National Report, Central Bureau of Statistics Pyongyang, DPR Korea, 2009, available as
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/North_Korea/Final%20national%20census%20report.pdf),
includes a table (52) on heating energy use in the DPRK. This table suggests that in 2008, a total of
263,809 households
used (presumably primarily) "Central or local heating system[s]". Over 99 percent of these were in urban areas, about 97 percent were in apartment buildings,
and99.2% were in Pyongyang. This suggests that as of 2008, about
7.37% , which
seems consistent with both the assumptions above and a supposition that few themal central heating and/or power plants were built after 1990
(the construction of the East Pyongyang plant in the 1990s being a notable exception).
Assumptions for post-1990 District Heat (DH) Production Parameters
We assume generally that district heat production matches district heat usage, which is assumed similar to electricity availabilty in the
Urban Residential and Public/Commercial sectors. Beyond that, assumptions related to district heat production are as follows. Theseassumptions follow the premise that infrastructure related to district heating, similar to electricity generation and T&D infrastructure,
has continued to degrade in the years since 1990, but at a decreasing rate since about 2000, and has not been extended substantially over time.
Post-2010, the capacity factor of district heating systems is assumed to rise slightly, with better coal availability, with a larger rise in 2017as more coal is available at reduced prices due to coal export restrictions as a result of UNSC sanctions.
Parameter
District Heat distribution losses
Efficiency of heat-only boilers for DH
Fraction of fuel as HFO for heat-onlyboilers (assumes same as coal-fired
electricity generation)
Capacity Factor of heat-only DH boilers
relative to 1990 estimate
Implied gross heat output of heat-only
DH boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied Coal input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied HFO input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)
Implied DH used from electricity
generation boilers as a fraction of total
fuel input
1990 -->
2.62%

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

18%
65%

20%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

6.20%

28.36%

3.59%

8.92%

2.0%

2.0%

70%

35%

50%

45%

45%

45%

1,710,419

855,210

1,221,728

1,099,555

1,099,555

1,099,555

2,468,266

988,181

1,899,846

1,615,353

1,737,563

1,738,007

163,148

391,189

70,683

158,123

35,91335,470

2.14%

5.41%

4.26%

4.83%

5.18%

5.69%

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Parameter
District Heat distribution losses
Efficiency of heat-only boilers for DH

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

21%
62%

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

1.2%

1.9%

1.9%

2.8%

46%

47%

47%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Implied gross heat output of heat-only
DH boilers (GJ/yr)

1,123,990

1,148,424

1,148,424

1,221,728

1,221,728

1,221,728

1,221,728

Implied Coal input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)

1,779,620

1,816,363

1,816,826

1,946,154

1,933,680

1,934,074

1,915,354

Implied HFO input to heat-only DH
boilers (GJ/yr)

33,26635,93535,471

24,37536,84936,45555,175

Implied DH used from electricity
generation boilers as a fraction of total
fuel input

2.97%

3.69%

3.65%

3.69%

4.80%

4.80%

4.80%

Fraction of fuel as HFO for heat-onlyboilers (assumes same as coal-fired
electricity generation)
Capacity Factor of heat-only DH boilers
relative to 1990 estimate

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCEDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified: 12/14/2011
DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
GENERAL ASSUMPTION:DPRK Industrial processes assumed to bewhen Chinese intensities are used, andCoal Consumption, All Industries
All Coal Consumption: Iron and Steel
Annual Steel Production:
Coal Use intensity:
Total Coal Use:
Coking Coal Consumption: Iron and Steel
Coking Coal Use intensity:
Conversion Factor:
Total Coking Coal Use:
Other Coal Consumption: Iron and Steel
Coal Use intensity:
Conversion Factor:
Total Other Coal Use:
Coal Consumption: Cement
Annual Cement Production:
Coal/Oil Use intensity:
Fraction of fuel needs by coal
Total Coal Use:
Coal Consumption: Fertilizers
Annual Fertilizer Consumption:
Annual Fertilizer Imports
Annual Ammonia prod capacity
Annual Urea Production capacity
Ratio of Ammonia Mass to N
Ratio of Urea Mass to N
Capacity Utilization Factor
Estimated Ammonia Production
Estimated Urea Production
Total coal use/te NH3
Fraction coal used as feedstock:
Conversion factor:
Coal Use, Ammonia Production
Coal and Oil Use, Ammonia Production
Annual Superphosphate product.
Fract. Phosphorus in Superphos.
Energy int., phosphorous prodn.
Conversion Factor:
Total Coal Use, Superphos prodn.
Total Coal and Oil Use, fertilizer prodn.
Total Coal Use, Fertilizer Prod.
Coal Consumption: Other Chemicals
Annual Carbide production:
Coal Use, carbide production:
Conversion factor:
Total Coal Use, Carbide Prod:
Caustic Soda Production:
Therm. En. Int., caustic soda prod.:
Boiler efficiency
Total Coal Use, caustic soda prod.:
Total Coal Use, Unspec. Chem:
Total Coal Use, Other Chem.:

10% more energy intensive than in China
15% more energy intensive than in Russia
when Russian intensities are used
Notes/Sources:
6.72E+08
6.00E+06 Te
1.64 tce/Te Steel
3.25E+08 GJ coal

4, 49
6

0.79 tce/Te Steel
29.3 GJ/tce
1.5277E+08 GJ coal50.85 tce/Te Steel
29.3 GJ/tce
1.72E+08 GJ coal45

1.10E+07 Te
6.883 GJ/te clinker
90%
6.81E+07 GJ/yr

1, 48
2
46

6.00E+05 Te Nitrogen
1.00E+05 Te Nitrogen
5.80E+05 te/yr
1.35E+06 te/yr
1.214
2.50
49%
2.853E+05 te/yr
6.626E+05 te/yr
2 te/te50%
25.1 GJ/te
1.83E+07 GJ/yr for energy
1.83E+07 GJ/yr as feedstock2.466E+05 te
44%
8.83 tce/te
29.3 GJ/tce
5.70E+06 GJ/yr (net of elect. use)
1.83E+07 GJ/yr--non-energy feedstock
2.40E+07 GJ/yr--as fuel

12
43
30
30

29
29
29
35
36
36

3.50E+05 te (from coal, Hamhung)31
0.96 te/te Ca Carbide
25.1 GJ/te coal29
8.43E+06 GJ/yr
9.86E+04
33
14.64 th GJ/te caustic soda
44
60% thermal GJ/tce
Assumption
2.77E+06 GJ/yr
1.12E+07 GJ/yr

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal Consumption: Pulp and Paper
Paper production:
1.82E+05 Te
Wood Pulp/Unit Paper
0.85 Te/Te
Fraction of fuel needs by coal50%
Ratio of fuel use to electr. use:
0.00106115 tce/kWh
Conversion factor:
29.3 GJ/tce
Total Coal Use:
4.03E+06 GJ/yr
Coal Consumption: Other Metals
Zinc Production
1.70E+05 Te
Copper Production
2.90E+04 Te
Aluminum Production
2.10E+04 Te
Lead Production
8.40E+04 Te
Zinc Coal Use intensity:
2.47 tce/te
Copper Coal Use intensity:
1.705 tce/te
Aluminum Coal Use intensity:
1.916 tce/te
Lead Coal Use intensity:
2.693 tce/te
Coal Use, Zinc Production
4.20E+05 tce
Coal Use, Copper Production
4.94E+04 tce
Coal Use, Aluminum Production
4.02E+04 tce
Coal Use, Lead Production
2.26E+05 tce
Conversion factor:
29.3 GJ/tce
Total Coal Use: Other Metals
2.37E+07 GJ
Coal Consumption: Other Minerals
Magnesia Production
1.00E+06 Te
Magnesia Production assumed Oil-based in 1990
Coal Use, Other Minerals
0.00E+00

7
8
10
11

15
15
15
15
27
17
16
20

40

Coal Consumption: Textiles
Textile Production
Average textile weight
Coal use, printing and dyeing
Coal Use per unit "vinalon" fiber
Conversion factor:
Conversion factor:
Total Coal Use: Textiles

5.20E+08 running meters
2.47E-04 te/running meter
4.39E-04 tce/running meter7.04 te coal/te
25.104 GJ/te coal29.3 GJ/tce
2.94E+07 GJ

7
21
22
31
29

Coal Consumption: Building Materials
Glass production in China, 1990
Population of China, 1990
Per Capita Glass prod., China
DPRK Population, 1990
Est. Glass production, DPRK
Coal Consumption Intensity/Case
Conversion factor:
Total Coal Use: Glass Production
Brick Production in China, 1990
Per Capita Brick product., China
Est. Brick production, DPRK
Coal Consumption Intensity
Total Coal Use:Brick Production

8.07E+07 Cases
1.14E+09 People
7.06E-02 Cases/Person
2.20E+07 People
1.55E+06 Cases
30.85 kgce/case
29.3 GJ/tce
1.40E+06 GJ/yr
4.49E+11 Pieces
392 Pieces/Person
8630473192 Pieces
2390 kgce/10,000 pieces
6.04E+07 GJ/yr

37
37

Total Coal Cons., Bldg Materials.
Coal Consumption: Non-specified Industry

38
20

37

39

6.20E+07 GJ/yr
1.25E+08 GJ/yr

Oil Consumption, Cement:
Fraction of heat input provided by oil
10%
Heavy Fuel oil use, cement product.
7.57E+06 GJ/yr
Oil Consumption, Fertilizers:
See "Industry--96-on" and "Non-energy" work sheets for oil products use as
Fertizer Feedstock s

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46

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Oil Consumption, Other Minerals:
Magnesia Production
Magnesia Fuel Use intensity:
Hvy Fuel Oil Use, Magnesia Prod.
Oil Consumption: Non-specified Ind. (Diesel):
Oil Consumption: Non-specified Ind. (Hvy Oil):
Oil Consumption, All Industries
Wood/Biomass Consumption: Pulp and Paper

Wood Consumption: Non-specified Industry
Fuelwood consumption
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Total Fuelwood Consumption
Electricity Consumption, All Industries
Electricity Consumption: Iron and SteelElectricity Use intensity:
Conversion Factor
Total Electricity Use:
Electricity Consumption: Cement
Electricity Use intensity:
Conversion Factor
Total Electricity Use:
Electricity Consumption: Fertilizers
Electricity Use intensity:
Conversion Factor
Electricity Use, Ammonium Prod.
Electricity Use intensity:
Electricity Use, Superphos. Prod.
Total Electricity Use:
Electricity Consumption: Other Chemicals
Elect. Use, Carbide production:
Conversion factor:
Total Elect. Use, Carbide Prod:
Elect. Use, Caustic Soda prod.:
Total Elect., Caustic Soda Prod:
Total Elect. Use, Unspec. Chem:
Total Elect. Use, Other Chem.:
Electricity Consumption: Pulp and Paper
Electricity Use intensity:
Conversion Factor
Total Electricity Use:
Electricity Consumption: Other Metals
Zinc Elect. Use intensity:
Copper Elect. Use intensity:
Aluminum Elect. Use intensity:
Lead Elect. Use intensity:
Elect. Use, Zinc Production
Elect. Use, Copper Production
Elect. Use, Aluminum Production
Elect. Use, Lead Production
Conversion factor:
Total Elect. Use: Other Metals
Electricity Consumption: Other Minerals
Magnesia Elect. Use intensity:
Conversion Factor
Elect. Use, Magnesia Production
Electricity Consumption: Textiles
Elect. Use, Vinalon production
Conversion factor:
Total Electricity Use: Textiles
Electricity Consumption: Building Materials
Electricity Int., Glass Production
Conversion factor:
Electricity Use: Glassmaking
Total Elect. Use: Bldg. Materials
Electricity Consumption: Non-specified Industry

1.00E+06 Te
40
12.6 GJ/te
41
1.26E+07 GJ
3.05E+06 GJ
Placeholder value
6.00E+05 GJ
Placeholder value
2.38E+07 GJ
4.03E+06 GJ Complements coal consumption
noted above

1.50E+05 cu.m.
1.50E+00 cu.m./te
1.60E+01 GJ/te
1.60E+06 GJ
7.02E+07
700.0 kWh/te crude steel
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
1.74E+07 GJ/yr

23
24
24

47, 5

100.0 kWh/te cement
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
4.36E+06 GJ/yr

35.76 MWh/te Ammonium
3.60E+00 GJ/MWh
1.26E+07 GJ/yr
16.258 MWh/te phosphorous
6.30E+06 GJ/yr
1.89E+07 GJ/yr

294571 kWh/te Ca Carbide
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
5.76E+06
2413 kWh/te
8.57E+05

31

36

32

6.62E+06
1522 kWh/te pulp
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
9.32E+05 GJ/yr

93844 kWh/te
1240 kWh/te
16050 kWh/te
184.92 kWh/te
6.53E+08 kWh
3.60E+07 kWh
3.37E+08 kWh
1.55E+07 kWh
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
4.13E+06 GJ/yr

28
17
18
28

100.0 kWh/te Magnesia
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
3.96E+05 GJ/yr

425400 kWh/te
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
2.50E+06 GJ/yr

31

30.81 kWh/case
3.60E-03 GJ/kWh
1.72E+05 GJ/yr
1.89E+05 GJ/yr
1.4850E+07 GJ

20

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 The National Report of DPRK to UNCED, 1992, lists 13.9 million tonnes cement output for 1990. See also note 48.
2 Based on document in authors' files [CE1]. which cites
1645 kcal/kg "clinker". This is somewhat higher than a figure given for the Chinese cement industry, b ut
only ab out 5% higher than the 1980 average for Russian cement plants.
3 Approx 1981 fig., China "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products" Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL
4 Document in authors' files [IF1] lists a figure of 7 million tonne figure (as of 1989) for crude steel output.
5 1987 fig. for "Key, Medium, and Small" plants in China is 890 kWhe/te. Source: "The Energy Efficiency of the Steel
Industry in China", M. Ross and L. Feng, Energy, 1991. Also see note 6.
6 Note that this figure is ab out 30% higher than 1987 Average Chinese energy intensities.
7 Economist Intelligence Unit, "China, North Korea Country Profile 1992-93", p.72
(Original Source, "Industry of the DPRK" b y M. Trigub enko).
8 Approximation b ased on author's experience. Remainder of paper weight is chemicals and b inders, such as clay.
9 Chinese 1985 value: "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products" Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL
V. Kalashnikov (personal communication, 9/97) suggests that the Russian historical average for electricity use inpapermaking is somewhat lower--671 kWh/te paper (not pulp) as of 1965. We use the Chinese value here.
10 Working assumption, no data. Rest of fuel would prob ab ly b e wood-derived.
11 For Chinese plants, 1980. Sum of non-electric fuel use (mostly coal) per kWh electricity used. Source:
China Energy Datab ook, 1992 Edition, page IV-30
12 Based on document in authors' files [HA1]. Figure is prob ab ly from 1989 or 1990, and is generally consistent
with other estimates and official figures for fertilizer production and consumption.
13 Ammonia, med. plants, tot. energy use; and elect. gen. eff. From "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products"
Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL. Figures are for 1981 Chinese plants.
14 Assumes all non-electric energy use is coal. Sub tracts coal input to electric power plants from total energy use.
15 Economist Intelligence Unit, "China, North Korea Country Profile 1992-93", p.72
(Original Source, "Industry of the DPRK" b y M. Trigub enko). Data for 1990.
16 For aluminum oxide production (not clear if per te AlOx or Al), China, 1990.
[Chinese data compendium provided b y J. Sinton], p. 2.
17 Coal use in copper refining, China, 1990, from [Chinese data compendium provided b y J. Sinton], p. 2.
1980 Russian figure for electric intensity of copper production (V. Kalashnikov, personal communication, 9/97).
Value is sub stantially higher (3-fold) than estimates for electricity use in copper production in China.
18 1980 Russian figure for electric intensity of aluminum production (V. Kalashnikov, personal communication, 9/97).
1981 China figure for electrolytic aluminum, DC use, (from "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products"
Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL) is very similar.
19 Document in authors' files [HT1, p. 10].
Reference to oil use is assumed to b e all use of refined products in nation.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
20 Chinese language spreadsheet of energy intensities ob tained from J.Sinton, dated Feb 12, 1993. 1980 data
21 Ratio of textile length to weight as implied b y figures in Korea Foreign Trade Association,"Major Economic Indicators for North Korea, 1993". (Page 9).
22 1990 (?) figures for China. P. 23: Energy of China, 1993 (Chinese-lang. compendium provided b y J. Sinton, LBL)
23 Industrial Fuelwood, from document in authors' files [TO1, p. 22]. Upper end of range (100 - 150 kte/yr).
24 From document in authors' files [FC1, p. 7]

25 Placeholder value to bring total industrial demand up to approximately 60% of total electricity consumption
as estimated in document in authors' files [EP1].
26 Placeholder estimate to bring total industrial/electric generation coal consumption up to (approximately) 75% ofcoal available, as estimated in document in authors' files [EE1]
27 1980 figures for China, section 8-37 of Chinese language document (1991) provided by J. Sinton, LBL.
28 For zinc, uses Russian electric intensity value from 1980 (V. Kalashnik ov, personal communication, 9/97).
Zinc figure is about 30% higher than 1990's figures for China, page 369 of Chinese language document("China Energy ____") (1994) provided by J. Sinton, LBL. Lead intensity figure is from the latter document.
Includes electricity used in ore milling (c. 1/3 of total for lead).
29 Based on flow diagram for Hamhung Fertilizer Complex as presented in
document in authors' files [HT1, Annex 8].
Assumes that all nitrogen fertilizer starts with ammonia production. Coal is assumed to have acalorific value of 6000 k cal/k g (as specified for Anthracite in Annex 7 of the same document).
Electricity consumption is also based on the flow diagram, which shows a total of 200 MW of power
input to the process that produces 250 k te/yr ammonia. 7200 operating hours per year assumed,
as stated in Annex 7 for the vinalon plant in the same complex. Electricity use is assumed (basedon the flow diagram) to also account for conversion of ammonia into other fertilizer products, such as urea.
30 Based on values in Annex 7 of document described in 29. Note that theseproduction capacities are the sum of data provided for specific large complexes in DPRK, andthus probably represent most, but not all, of the productive capacity in the country.
31 Based on values for carbide and vinalon production from flow diagrams presented in Annex 7 of the
document described in 29.
32 Chinese 1980 value: "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products" Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL

33 from document in authors' files [TX1: Annexure 1].
34 Electricity use in caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) production refining, China, 1990, from
[Chinese data compendium provided b y J. Sinton].

35 Based on values for superphosphate production from flow diagrams presented in Annex 7 of the
document described in 29. Assumes productive capacity of 400 k te/yr at full capacity
and actual operation 7200 hours/yr.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
36 Assumes that superphosphate is produced from phosphorous, and that the energy/electricity intensities ofphosphorous production is as noted in "Chinese Energy Conservation" (1993), a Chinese-language compendium
provided by J. Sinton of LBL. This assumption probably overstates the energy use in manufacturing superphosphate.
37 Data on production of glass and bricks in China contained in spreadsheet provided by J.Sinton of LBL.
38 As in "Residential" spreadsheet in this Workbook.
39 Russian value for bricks for 1965 obtained from V. Kalashnikov (personal communication, 9/97). Used without inflator.
1980 value from China (Chinese language spreadsheet of energy intensities obtained from J.Sinton, dated Feb 12, 1993)
gives an energy intensity slightly more than half of the 1965 Russian value. We do not know whether the Russian andChinese bricks are the same size, but assume that DPRK bricks will more closely resemble Russian models.
40 Economist Intelligence Unit, "China, North Korea Country Profile 1992-93", p.72 (Original Source,
Industry of the DPRK by M. Trigubenko). Magnesia is MgO, or magnesium oxide.
41 Rough of intensity from US Bureau of Mines publication as relayed by Ms. Deborah A. Kramer of the U.S. Geological
Survey is 10 MMBtu/short ton. This estimate is on the same order of magnitude as the energy required
to produce chemically similar calcium oxide from calcium carbonate. A separate estimate of DPRK magnesite
fuel use intensity (personal communication [QR 9/97]) was slightly higher: 300 kg fuel oil/te. The latter figure was used.
42 Estimated to be similar to electricity requirements for production of cement "clinker" from limestone.
43 Estimated imports of nitrogen fertilizer in 1990. Assumed mostly from the (former) Soviet Union.
44 1980 Russian figure for thermal energy use (assumed to be as heat) in caustic soda production(V. Kalashnikov, personal communication, 9/97).
45 Rough estimate based on 1965 and 1980 Russian figures for coal use in iron making plus steelmaking.
(V. Kalashnikov, personal communication, 9/97).
46 It has been reported that some fuel oil is used in cement production. The figure shown here is a guess on our part.
47 Based on 1965 and 1980 Russian figures for electric energy use in steelmaking(V. Kalashnikov, personal communication, 9/97).
48 Data from the Korean National Statistical Office and the Korea Cement Industrial Association suggest a considerably lower
figure for DPRK cement output in 1990--6.13 million tonnes. Other sources place DPRK cement production at
10.1 million tonnes in 1986, 10 million tonnes in 1988 (the latter from the Economist Intelligence Unit,"China, North Korea Country Profile, 1992-93", p.79, Original Source, Mining Journal, Mining Annual Review, 1991),
4.75 million tonnes in 1992, 7.5 million tonnes in 1993, and 12 million tonnes in 1993. Of these, our subjective
judgement is that the 7.5 million tonnes in 1993 figure may well be the best-informed of the group, and given thesubstantial decline in all industrial output in the DPRK between 1990 and 1993, we believe that a 1990 figure of about
11 million tonnes is a reasonable estimate.
49 Data from the Korea Iron & Steel Association suggests a considerably lower
figure for DPRK steel output in 1990--3.36 million tonnes. Other sources place DPRK steel production at
5.8 million tonnes in 1993, 4.2 million tonnes in 1990, 5.1 million tonnes in 1990 (the latter from the Economist Intelligence Unit,"China, North Korea Country Profile, 1992-93", p.79, Original Source, Mining Journal, Mining Annual Review, 1991),
1.79 million tonnes in 1992, and 5.98 million tonnes in 1993. Of these, our subjective
judgement is that a 1990 figure below the 7 million tonne figure cited in Note 4 (for 1989) is likely for 1990 (mostobservers suggest that 1989 was a peak year for industrial output in many subsectors), but that the Korea Iron and Steel Association
figure is probably too low (or represents an incomplete count of output). We therefore adopt an estimate of 6.0 million tonnesof steel output in 1990 for the DPRK.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND IN 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 THROUGH 2010, AND2014 THROUGH 2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/23/2020

ASSUMPTIONS FOR CHANGES IN INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020

Subsector
Iron and Steel (See Notes 1, 17, 22,
25)
Cement (See Notes 2, 23, 24)---- fraction of heat from heavy oil
Fertilizers (See Note 3)
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals (See Note 19)
Other Minerals (See Note 18)---- fraction of heat from heavy oil
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-Specified Industry--non-oil fuels(See Note 20)
Non-Specified Industry--diesel oil
Non-Specified Industry--heavy oil

1996

2000

Production Relative to 1990
2005
2008
2009

2010

2014

35%
40%
10%
24.68%
30%
30%
30%
30%
80%
30%
30%

18.05%
30%
26.9%
7.5%
18.05%
18.05%
18%
30.0%
80%
18%
30%

14.50%
32.0%
13.2%
11.2%
18.05%
18.05%
60%
50%
50%
20%
30%

14.5%
40.0%
9.5%
10.9%
17.0%
17.0%
62%
52%
43.0%
20%
30%

20.92%
55.69%
3.48%
7.2%
15%
15.0%
61%
50%
30.5%
17%
30%

21.32%
57.08%
5.02%
7.4%
14.0%
14.5%
58.0%
50.0%
35.0%
16.0%
28.0%

20.33%
60.68%
5.40%
22.54%
11.0%
10.0%
52.0%
50.0%
34.1%
12.0%
22.0%

110%
110%

115%
115%

112%
112%

110%
110%

103%
108%

100%
105%

100%
102%

110%
110%
110%
110%
110%

115%
115%
115%
115%
115%

112%
112%
112%
112%
112%

110%
110%
110%
110%
110%

110%
110%
110%
110%
110%

110%
110%
110%
110%
108%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

110%
110%

115%
115%

112%
112%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

33.00%
20.0%
30.0%

17.23%
18.1%
36.1%

15.14%
24.7%
28.0%

14.78%
12.0%
27.5%

11.45%
13.8%
24.5%

11.01%
15.0%
29.0%

8.00%
10.0%
27.9%

110%
110%
110%

115%
115%
115%

112%
112%
112%

110%
110%
110%

110%
110%
110%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

A1- 321

1996

2000

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
2005
2008
2009

2010

2014

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21(See Notes 4, 27)Subsector
Iron and Steel (See Notes 1, 17, 22,
25, 27)
Cement (See Notes 2, 23, 24, 27)---- fraction of heat from heavy oil
Fertilizers (See Note 3)
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals (See Notes 19, 26)
Other Minerals (See Note 18, 26)---- fraction of heat from heavy oil
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-Specified Industry--non-oil fuels(See Note 20)
Non-Specified Industry--diesel oil
Non-Specified Industry--heavy oil

2015

2016

Production Relative to 1990
2017
2018
2019

17.983%60.88%
8.00%
20.95%
11.0%
10.0%
52.0%
50.0%
37.1%
12.0%
22.0%

20.300%64.34%
8.7%
23.98%
11.0%
10.0%
52.0%
50.0%
37.3%
12.0%
22.0%

18.167%62.16%
4.06%
16.26%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
20.0%
11.0%
21.0%

17.0%
58.0%
4.93%
9.10%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
20.0%
11.0%
23.0%

17.0%
58.0%
4.90%
9.10%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
20.0%
11.0%
23.0%

14.5%
46.0%
8.49%
4.55%
8.0%
8.0%
37.0%
35.0%
20.0%
8.0%
16.0%

100%
102%

99%
100%

100%
101%

100%
101%

100%
101%

100%
101%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

107%
110%
110%
109%
107%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

108%
110%
110%
110%
108%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

110%
110%

8.0%
12.5%
23.0%

8.0%
14.0%
23.0%

8.5%
7.0%
14.8%

12.0%
7.0%
15.2%

12.0%
7.0%
15.2%

12.0%
7.0%
18.0%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

110%
110%
108%

2020

2015

2016

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
2017
2018
2019

2020

[Below is same as and linked to table above, but fomatted for reporting]
1996
Production
Relative to
1990

2000
Production
Relative to
1990

2005
Production
Relative to
1990

2008
Production
Relative to
1990

2009
Production
Relative to
1990

2010
Production
Relative to
1990

2014
Production
Relative to
1990

35%
40%
10%
25%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
33%
20%
30%

18%
30%
27%
8%
18%
18%
18%
30%
18%
30%
17%
18%
36%

15%
32%
13%
11%
18%
18%
60%
50%
20%
30%
15%
20%
28%

15%
40%
10%
11%
17%
17%
62%
52%
20%
30%
15%
12%
28%

21%
56%
3%
7%
15%
15%
61%
50%
17%
30%
11%
14%
25%

21%
57%
5%
7%
14%
15%
58%
50%
16%
28%
11%
15%
29%

20%
61%
5%
23%
11%
10%
52%
50%
12%
22%
8%
10%
28%

Non-Specified Industry--Electricity for Kaesong (GJ), See Note 8
in "Electric-96-on" worksheet

2.62E+05

8.09E+05

8.26E+05

1.04E+06

1.26E+06

Subsector
Iron and Steel
Cement---- fraction of heat from heavy oil
Fertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-Specified Industry--non-oil fuels
Non-Specified Industry--diesel oil
Non-Specified Industry--heavy oil

A1- 3222016
2017
Production Production2015 Production Relative to Relative toRelative to 1990
1990
1990

18.0%
60.9%
8.0%
21.0%
11.0%
10.0%
52.0%
50.0%
12.0%
22.0%
8.0%
12.5%
23.0%

20.3%
64.3%
8.7%
24.0%
11.0%
10.0%
52.0%
50.0%
12.0%
22.0%
8.0%
14.0%
23.0%

2018
Production
Relative to
1990

2019
Production
Relative to
1990

2020
Production
Relative to
1990

18.2%
62.2%
4.1%
16.3%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
11.0%
21.0%
8.5%
7.0%
14.8%

17.0%
58.0%
4.9%
9.1%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
11.0%
23.0%
12.0%
7.0%
15.2%

17.0%
58.0%
4.9%
9.1%
11.0%
10.0%
49.0%
45.0%
11.0%
23.0%
12.0%
7.0%
15.2%

14.5%
46.0%
8.5%
4.6%
8.0%
8.0%
37.0%
35.0%
8.0%
16.0%
12.0%
7.0%
18.0%

1.58E+06 1.93E+05 0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Notes/Sources:
1 www.koreascope.com, in "Production of Major Industrial Items and World Ranking" (visited 6/3/02),

lists the ROK production of steel in 1999 as 41 million tonnes. In "Economic and Social Comparison
between the Two Koreas", on the same WWW site, the ROK's steel production is listed as being
33 times that of the DPRK, implying an annual production of about 1.24 million tonnes. This figure, about
18 percent of 1990 production levels, seems plausible (though possibly high). A figure that is probably from the same
ultimate source, the Korea Iron & Steel Association, suggests a value of 1.086 million tonnes in 2000,
along with 1.208 million tonnes in 1996, and 1.168 million tonnes in 2005. It is unclear how these figures
were derived. Based on consideration of existing estimates, observations of the overall DPRK economy,
and trends in iron and steel products trade with China (see notes 13 through 17, below), we adopt iron andsteel production estimates of 2.1 million tonnes in 1996, 1.08 million tonnes in 2000, and 0.87 million
tonnes in 2005, describing a slow decline, in more recent years, in primary iron and steel production in the DPRK.
2 The source noted above, in the "Economic and Social…" page, lists a DPRK cement production of
4.1 million tonnes, or about 41 percent of year 1990 production, in 1999, which seems plausible.
Data that are probably from the same ultimate source, the Korean National Statistical Officeand the Korea Cement Industrial Association, suggest that year 2000 cement output was 4.6 million tonnes,
output in 1996 was 3.79 million tonnes, and output in 2005 was 5.93 million tonnes. It is unclear how thesenumbers were derived, and though one would expect the cement industry to decline somewhat less thanother industries, as it is/was not largely an export industry, the observed lack of recent construction activity
in the DPRK would suggest that the level of 1996 to 2005 increase that the latter source shows is
not what one would expect. We assume cement output of 4.4 million tonnes in 1996, 3.3 million tonnes in 2000, and3.52 million tonnes in 2005, showing a trend of slightly increased construction-sector demand for cement (for example,
for hydroelectric dams) in recent years in the DPRK.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
3 www.nis.go.k r/english/democratic/industry07.html, dated 2001, by the ROK National Intelligence Service,suggests that current supplies of fertilizer cover only 40 percent of fertilizer needs in the DPRK.
Causes and Lessons of the "North Korean Food Crisis", by Tony Boys of Ibarak i Christian University
Junior College (2000), lists total fertilizer supply in the DPRK in 1999 of 200 k tonnes of "NPK", of which
32% was produced domestically, 10% imported, and the remainder provided in aid. This would imply thatabout
11% of 1990 levels of fertilizer production were achieved in 1999.
This document is available as "dprk e.pdf" on the WWW. The same document shows total fertilizer
availability of about
170 k tonnes in 1996. Assuming fertilizer aid at that time wasminimal, and assuming fertilizer imports were approximately as in 1999, domestic fertilizer productionin 1996 can be estimated at
25% of 1990 levels.
As an alternative source, the presentation "Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation in DPR Korea", by R.V. Misra,available as http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/publicat/PDF/2006_crossroads_misra_slides.pdf (from theInternational Fertilizer Industry Association), presented as part of the "IFA Crossroads ASIA-PACIFIC 2006
Conference 'Growing mark ets, nurturing success'", Chiangmai, Thailand, 13-16 November 2006, includes thegraph at right. This suggests that 1999 productionof fertilizer in the DPRK was
63 thousand
tonnes of nitrogen, which is roughly consistent with thelevel suggested in the article by Tony Boys that is quoted
above. Assuming this figure is correct, we adopt Misra's
2000 fertilizer production figure of
37.5 thousand
tonnes or nitrogen, or
7.5% of 1990
production levels. The analogous figure for 2005 is
56 thousand
tonnes or nitrogen, or
11.2% of 1990
production levels. A companion paper by Misra available fromthe same source notes that of the362.8 thousand
tonnes of annual nitrogen fertilizer production capacity listed(see reproduction of Table 5 from that paper, below),
27 k te ofcapacity use a fuel-oil based fertilizer process, electrolysis
is the basis for61
k te of capacity and239
k te of N fertilzer capacity use "coal and naptha"
as feedstock s. No information is provided on therelative proportions of these inputs, or on therelative capacity factors typical for the different
production complexes. The same paper quotes
an estimated energy intensity of fertilzer output of
50 GJ/te N to produce ammonia, and an additional
25 GJ/te N to produce urea. Which fuels these estimates include
are not specified, but these estimates seem reasonably consistent with the estimates we have used for 1990 energy
consumption in the fertilizer subsector.

A1- 324

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
On the basis of these data, and largely as placeholder values, we assume that
5% of (non-energy)
fertilizer feedstock s are heavy oil (in 1990 and beyond), and
20% are naptha, relative to the reported
coal used as feedstock (at 1 te per tonne ammonia produced). Consumption of these feedstock s isreported in the "non-energy" sheet in this work book . At this level, the naptha use in the fertilizer sector
is still less than half of the 220,000 tonnes of naptha reportedly used in the industrial
sector as a whole in 1990 in the report State of the Environment DPR Korea 2003 (Table 3.14)
prepared by the DPRK with UNDP, and published by the United Nations Environment Programme. Other figuresin the same table, however, appear somewhat overstated relative, at least, to our estimates for 1990.
For 2008 and 2009 (and 2010), estimates of fertilizer production were obtained from
UN Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Program (2010), SPECIAL REPORT: FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY
ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA , dated 16 November 2010, and available as
URL http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al968e/al968e00.pdf. The estimate is derived from data in Table 2 of that document (see below).

The most recent update to the above report that was identified as of 1/2016 is
UN Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Program (2013), SPECIAL REPORT: FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD
SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA , dated 28 November 2013, andavailable as http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/aq118e/aq118e.pdf. Table 2 of that report reads as follows:

A1- 325

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Although we could not find, as of this writing, direct information on fertilizer production in the DPRK in 2014, the trends in the table above suggest increasing
domestic output, which is consistent with DPRK announcements and the results of a 38 North analysis ("North Korea’s Namhung Youth Chemical Complex:
Seven Years of Construction Pays Off", by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., dated 10 April 2014, and available as http://38north.org/2014/04/jbermudez041014/)
that notes increases in fertilizer production in recent years. Coupled with this, imports of nitrogeneous fertilizer from China have declined in recent years, basedon information from the UN COMTRADE database as shown below. (The DPRK does imports fertilizer from other countries, but the quantities imported
are very small compared with imports from China.)
The UN FAO document GIEWS Update:The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Food Supply and
Demand Outlook in 2017/18 (November/October) , dated 9 July 2018, and avaialble as http://www.fao.org/3/ca0363en/CA0363EN.pdf,
citing DPRK government sources, includes the following table describing recent DPRK fertilizer use:

For earlier years, the UN FAO document GIEWS Update:The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Food Supply and
Demand Outlook in 2015/16 (November/October) , dated 27 April 2016, and avaialble as http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5572e.pdf,
citing DPRK government sources, includes the following table describing DPRK fertilizer use from 2009 thorugh 2015:

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Imports of Nitrogen fertilizers from China, tonnes
284,307
350,641
237,679
189,944
131,786
Imports of Nitrogen fertilizers from China, value (thousand USD) $ 40,872 $ 94,188 $ 62,757 $ 54,514 $ 28,839
Imports of Nitrogen fertilizers from China, implied $/tonne $
144 $
269 $
264 $
287 $
219 $
Imports of Urea from China, tonnes
45,07595,74944,718117,333
72,501
Imports of Ammonium Sulphate from China, tonnes
239,167
254,892
192,945
72,57759,265
Implied total Ammoniium sulphate equivalent tonnes
324,255
435,638
277,360
294,068
196,126
The quantities of nitrogen fertilizer shown imply the following domestic production (quantities in thousand tonnes):
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nitrogen fertilizer as Ammonium
Sulphate
256.8
170.09174.35189.335202.931391.95
Nitrogen fertilizer as N
54.42
36.04
36.94
40.12
43.00
83.05
Fraction of 1990 Production
10.9%
7.2%
7.4%
8.0%
8.6%
16.6%
Fraction of (NH4)2SO4 as N
21.2%
Fraction of Urea as N
40.0%

A1- 3272014
531.87112.70
22.5%

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
67,381
146,364 117,471
252,690$17,926 $ 33,114 $ 28,757 $
80,744 $
266 $
226 $
245 $
320 #DIV/0!
56,781 140,872
110,155
237,387
10,5805,491
7,316
15,303
117,766 271,418
215,258
463,422-2015
494.43104.77
21.0%

2016

2017

565.75119.8824.0%

383.76
81.32
16.3%

2018
214.76
45.51
9.1%

2020
$

#DIV/0!
-

2019

2020

214.7645.51
9.1%

107.38
22.75
4.6%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
The relative energy intensity for domestic production of fertilizer is reduced slightly in 2014 through 2017 relative to 2010 to reflect the improvements in the Namhung Chemical
Complex reported as above.
One source, "North Korea’s largest fertilizer plant reportedly shut down", by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein for NK Economy Watch, dated November 6th, 2019,available as part of https://www.nk econwatch.com/category/agriculture/, suggests that persistent problems in DPRK fertilizer factories were continuing as ofearly 2019.
An article in Daily NK "N. Korea’s largest fertilizer complex no longer operational: Sources report that up to 70% of the complex's work ers have been reassigned to other work ",available as https://www.dailynk .com/english/north-k orea-largest-fertilizer-plant-no-longer-operational/, suggests that DPRK fertilizer production must have fallen significantly
at least in 2018.
Lack ing specific estimates of fertilizer production or use in the DPRK in 2018, we assume that overall fertilizer supplies were about the same in 2018 as in the"five-year average" reported in 2018 in the UN FAO GIEWS report, but given that imports of fertilizer from China were much higher in 2018 than in 2017, implied domestic
fertilizer production must have been much lower. This assumption is used to estimate the figures for 2018 production provided in the table above.
No Comtrade data were available for fertilizer trades involving the DPRK in 2019 as of 4/20/20. We assume that fertilizer trades and output in that year weresimilar to the total estimates for 2018 pending receipt of additionsl data. For 2020, we assume that the restrictions on trade and movement within the DPRK will
result in a reduction of both imports of fertilizer and domestic fertilizer production of about
50% percent. This assumes that fertilizer imports
and production are lik ely deemed crucial, and thus continued to the degree possible, but the combination of domestic and Chinese restrictions due to the pandemic
still significantly affected fertilizer provision.
4 With the exception of "Other Minerals" and "Building Materials", we assume that the level of activity in otherindustries relative to 1990 in the year 2000 is approximately the same as in the iron and steel sector.
The building materials and other minerals subsectors are assumed to have activities relative to 1990 similar tothe cement industry. The other minerals subsector includes magnesite (or, when processed lik e lime forcement, magnesia), which is a valuable export product. An industry source indicates that an 8000 tonne
shipment of magnesia (although it may have been magnesite) arrived in Europe in early 2001. Japan imported$3.5 million worth of magnesia in the first half of 2000 (Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency
data from http://www.k otra.or.k r/main/common_bbs, visited 6/3/02, "Trade Tendencies of the Major
Countries"), which, if annualized and assuming a sales price of $US 100 to $200 per tonne (within
the range suggested in Queensland Department of Minerals and Energy Mineral Information Leaflet No 5:
MAGNESITE, dated January 1998, suggests exports of 35 to 70 thousand tonnes to Japan alone, which
in turn suggests relatively active production of the mineral. On our trip to the DPRK in October of 2000 wesaw work ing brick or tile production facilities, some of the very few active industrial facilities wesaw during our time in the DPRK. For 2005, with the exception of the subsectors treated explicitly
in other notes, we assume that the generally-percieved modest upturn in the DPRK economy has translated in
into a small increase, relative to 2000, in activity and energy use in industry, for example, in the cement,
building materials, and textiles subsectors, though the upturn in the latter may be mostly due to garment
assembly on commission, rather than the much more energy-intensive manufacturing of cloth.
We increase non-oil fuels in "unspecified industry" more than other categories to reflect the probable increasein demand for electricity, and also some coal, from development of export-oriented light industry.
A Bank of Korea estimate placed the production of cement in the DPRK at 5.6 million tonnes in 2004,
which is considerably higher than the 4.1 million tonnes we use for 2000. We assume, in part reflecting
information in Note 5, below, that the Bank of Korea figure is probably an over-estimate for 2005.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
5 The document Seoul T'ongil Kyongje , dated August 2000, pages 39-48, article by Hong Sun-chik entitled"North Korean Industry (Part II): Cement Industry", suggests that cement output in 1998 was 3.15 million tonnes, butgrew substantially in 1999. The capacity factor of DPRK factories was 26.2 percent in 1998, compared with
51 percent in 1990. The article lists a year-2000 capacity of
12.01 million tonnes, of which 96.3 percent
was in the 10 largest factories. The DPRK had 49 k ilns, and the average capacity of 0.25 million tonnes each was lessthan one quarter the average capacity of k ilns in the ROK. The article cite DPRK limestone reserves ofabout 100 billion tonnes. The article references a year-2000 source listing the Ch'onnae-ri Cement plant with
"Annual production of 1.1 Million tonnes, the largest on the East Coast". In a discussion of cement quality, the article
says that cement made in the DPRK is lower in quality (due to poorer quality control, k iln break down due to oil
shortages, and lack of input supplies) than ROK cement, but that DPRK cement is similar in quality and price to Chinese
cement. Problems in the Cement industry listed in the article include outdated production facilities,
with automated facilities in use for only about one sixth of k ilns, poor cement quality (due in part to lack of fuels,
which prevent k ilns from being operated normally), lack of paper for pack aging of cement products (leading
to difficulties in exporting cement), the presence of wastes in the cement, and "an inefficient usethat causes environmental pollution".
6 The document Seoul T'ongil Kyongje , dated December 2000, pages 36-44, is an article by Hong Sun-chik entitled"North Korean Industries (Part V): Automobile Industry". This article notes a new plant in Nampo, opening 9/2000,
to "modif[y] imported secondhand automobiles", with a planned second phase to assemble Fiats. In the 1970s, theDPRK developed production lines for 2.5-, 10-, and 25-tonne truck s. The article states that "most of the k ey parts
that require elector-circuit systems and precision processing such as cylinder heads and starter motors are imported"due to problems with the quality of domestically-produced parts. Although a 90 percent "self-sufficieny rate"
is claimed by the DPRK, the author estimates a rate under 60% is more lik ely. 1999 auto production capacity in the
DPRK was estimated at 33,000 units, with production of 7,300 that year. The Sungni Motor General Plant accounts
for 80 percent of the DPRK's output of cars and truck s. Starting in 1995, this factory began producing a diesel-fueled
passenger car to try and shift transport fuel consumption to lower-cost diesel oil (and away from gasoline). This transitionis also (as of 2000) being undertak en for new 2.5-tonne truck s (gasoline-to-diesel). The article contains anestimate that 70 to 90 percent of cars being used in Pyongyang are imported. The article estimates that the DPRK's
domestic automobile demand is 20,000 to 30,000 units per year, of which passenger cars account for 30-40 percent.
Engines have been imported from Japan, the Czech Republic, and other countries since 1988.
7 China Customs Statistics reported imports of television sets to the DPRK from China
increased approximately five-fold, on average, between 1998-2000 and 2003-2005. Televisions (HS #8528)
were the number one import in the "electrical equipment" category for the DPRK during the latter years, at
an average of about 400,000 sets per year. At the same time, imports to the DPRK from China of
the rare earth metal Yttrium (HS # 2846) , which is used in mak ing phosphors for televisions, declined from about
55 tonnes in the mid-1990s to zero by 2000 and 2005. China was (as of the mid-1990s) by far the world leader
in production of Yttrium (see http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/741397.pdf).
The increase in television imports from China, and the decrease in Yttrium imports, is circumstantial
evidence of (though, admittedly, hardly proof of) a decline in the DPRK appliance sector since the mid-1990s.
Import data as compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and
Implications as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
8 Many of the top imports to the DPRK from China, by value, in 2005 in the Machinery (HS # 84) category appear to
be tools related to mines, mining, or the mineral industry. These include minerals sorting devices,compressors and pumps (air and liquid), bulldozers and related self-propelled equipment, furnaces,
derrick s, and cranes. These purchases would appear to point to an upturn in the DPRK metals and minerals
subsector (or perhaps an upturn to come in the next few years). In most of these categories, purchases
increased significantly in recent years. In the "machinery" category overall, the DPRK's imports from China
nearly doubled (in reported value) between 2004 and 2005. Source same as cited in note 7, above.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
9 Imports of plastics and plastic goods to the DPRK from China, by weight, in 2005 in the Plastics (HS # 39) category
were over 45,000 tonnes, which was an increase of more than 50 percent over year 2004 imports, and aboutfour-fold higher than plastics imports in the mid-1990s. This may indicate a combination of a decline in the
DPRK's capacity to produce plastics domestically, plus an increase in the demand for plastic goods, particularly
as the non-state economy began to develop. Source same as cited in note 7, above.
10 Imports of iron and steel products (for example, rolled steel and steel bar, not finished goods--"Iron and Steel", HS # 72
category) to the DPRK from China, by weight, averaged about 57,000 tonnes per year from 2003 through 2005.
This was an increase of more than 4-fold over 1995-1997 imports, and may indicate a combination of a decline in the
DPRK's capacity to produce such products domestically. Source same as cited in note 7, above
A similar pattern exists for finished iron and steel goods ("Iron and Steel Products", HS #73), where year 2005 imports
from China (at about 25,000 tonnes) were significantly higher than in previous years, and about five-fold higher than theapproximately 4000 - 6000 tonnes level of imports of these goods that prevailed from 1995 through 1999.
Among these products, the DPRK imported over 24,000 tonnes of railway track (HS# 7302) in both 2001 and 2005,
far more than imports in other years. Lik ewise, imports of inorganic chemicals (HS # 28), at about
50,000 tonnes in 2005, were over 50% higher than in 2003 and 2004, and about 3 times imports in the mid-1990s.
Aluminum oxides and carbonates (HS# 2818 and 2836, respectively) made up almost 40,000 of the total
imports by the DPRK from China in this category in 2005.
11 Similar to the pattern noted in 10, above, Imports of aluminum and aluminum products (HS # 76
category) to the DPRK from China, by weight, averaged about 57,000 tonnes per year from 2003 through 2005
(see data below). This was an increase of about 5-fold over 1995-1997 imports, and, similar to the iron and steel sector,
may indicate a combination of a decline in the DPRK's capacity to produce such products domestically.
The most commonly imported products in this category, by weight, were "bar, rod, profiles", "other structures","plate, sheet, strip > 0.2 mm thick ", "household articles", and "foil =< 0.22 mm thick (except back ing)" (?).
Imports of aluminum "tubes and pipes" (HS # 7608) were just under 19 tonnes in 2005.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
2003
2004
2005
76 ALUMINUM
1,655
2,286
4,285 Quantity: tonnes
12 In 2005, the DPRK exported to China somewhat under 4700 tonnes of lead (HS # 78) and over 9300
tonnes of Zinc and zinc products (HS # 79). Lead exports from the DPRK to China were recorded aszero in 2003 and 2004 (or, possibly, not recorded), but varied from about 1200 to 4200 tonnes per year
from 1995 through 2002. Zinc/zinc products exports were much higher in 2004--about 35,000 tonnes,
and also higher--about 15,500 tonnes--in 2003.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
13 In 2003 - 2005, the DPRK exported to China the quantities of ores (HS # 26) noted below.
Only selected ore exports are shown (largely, top exports by volume). Many ore exports to China
showed large increases in 2005, and also between the late 1990s and 2005.
Exports from the DPRK to China of 90.54 tonnes of "Uranium, Thorium Ore and Concentrate" was listed forthe year 2004, but Uranium exports from the DPRK to China are not listed for other years between 1995 and 2005.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
Description
IRON ORES+CONCENTRATE
ZINC ORES+CONCENTRATE
PRECIOUS METAL ORES+C
MOLYBDENUM ORE+CONCEN
LEAD ORES+CONCENTRATE
COPPER ORES+CONCENTRATUNGSTEN ORE+CONCEN
OT WASTE MANU IRN/STL
OTHER ORES AND CONCENTRATES

HS #
2601
2608
2616
2613
2607
2603
2611
2619
2617

2003
270,854
5,242
55,788230
20,608
7,298
398
-

2004
937,159
16,10960,007384
14,301
6,987
542
568
2

A1- 330

2005
1,320,458 Units: Tonnes
30,389619
14,090
7,856
1,252
7,169
2,962

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
14 In 2003 - 2005, the DPRK exported to China the quantities of iron and steel products (HS # 72) noted below.
Only selected exports are shown (largely, top exports by volume). Exports to China in this categoryalso, overall, showed large increases between the late 1990s and 2005, particularly in scap exports.
In addition to the quantities noted above, smaller amounts of iron and steel products (about 1100 tonnes
in 2003, but only 82 and 87 tonnes in 2004 and 2005, respectively) were imported to Hong Kong from the DPRK.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
Description
FERROUS WASTE,SCRAP;OPIG IRON,SPIEGELEISENSEMIFINSH IRON,NONAST
FERROALLOYSPRIMARY FORMS,NT 7203
BAR,ROD,H ROLLD,I/NAS

HS #
7204
7201
7207
7202
7206
7214

2003
221,719
118,874
69,183
3,318
8,084
738

2004
275,687
155,377
47,767
6,139
4,677
2,485

2005
358,293 Units: Tonnes
98,06047,538
9,843
2,042
798

15 From 1995 - 2005, the DPRK exported to China small quantities of finished iron and steel products (HS # 73)
in quantities ranging, by year, from near zero to about 800 tonnes. The largest single year's export ofa single product was 707 tonnes of railway track in 2004.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
16 Since 1998, the DPRK has exported to China less than a million USD per year of goods in "machinery" category (HS # 84.)
Exports for 1998 and for several other years in the late 1990s were higher, by value.
Source same as cited in note 7, above.
17 The data on trade in iron ore and iron and steel goods between China and the DPRK, as described in notes 10, 13, and14 above, suggest a pattern whereby the DPRK (and/or Chinese businesses operating in the DPRK) are focusing onexporting increasing amounts of raw materials (ore, scrap) from the DPRK to China, and increasing imports offinished and semi-finished iron and steel products into the DPRK from China. Based on this pattern and on reports(and our own observations) of the continued decline of DPRK heavy industry, we assume a continued reduction in output
of iron and steel and iron and steel products in the DPRK between 2000 and 2005.
18 Dr. Chung Woo-jin, in his presentation entitled "Mineral Resources in DPRK",
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA), and available as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Papers/Chung.ppt.
lists 2004 DPRK output of Magnesite of 1 million tonnes, the same as in 1990. What is not k nown iswhat fraction of that output might have been simply exported as a raw ore (and thus not processed toMagnesia), and what fraction might of ore processing was fueled with heavy oil versus coal. We mak e theassumption, for the year 2005, that about
50% of magnesite was processed to Magnesia, andabout
50% of the fuel input for that processing was provided by heavy
fuel oil (the rest being provided by coal).
19 In the presentation referenced above, Dr. Chung provides estimates of the production of lead andzinc metal (ingots) in 2004 in the DPRK at levels of
60 and100 k te,respectively, or about
71% and
59% of 1990 output. Copper ingot
production was estimated by Dr. Chung at
13 kte, or
45% of 1990 output as
estimated. The heavy imports of aluminum products (at levels well beyond even the reported output ofaluminum in 1990) from China into the DPRK, as reported in Note 11, above, suggest that domestic DPRK
production of aluminum in 2005 could have been low (which would also be consistent with electricity shortage,as aluminum manufacture is quite electricity-intensive). Based on these data, we estimate a roughaverage activity for the overall "other metals" subsector for 2005 at
60% of 1990 levels.

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20 Anecdotal and fragmented evidence of activity in industrial installations include: The Wonsan shipyard has
not built a new ship since 1985, and struggles in even repair work due to deteriorated equipment, with only 1/6th of theoriginal work force even reporting. The "6.4 Wonsan Vehicle Factory" has ceased manufacturing trains due to a shortageof raw materials and electricity, and now occasionally repairs trains, but also mak es doors for buildings its
reporting work force about 1/6th of 1990 levels (North Korea Today, No. 298, 10/2009).
NK Today No. 291 (8/2009) report "[p]roduction Rate below Thirty Percent at Lanam Mine Machinery Factory in Chungjin",
despite the pressure of a "150-day battle campaign" (national productivity push).
Low output (due to lack of electricity and food) at the Duk sa Coal Mine (producing "low heat anthracite coal") of Soodong District
idled clothing, shoe, and "mark et" factories in Hamheung, which used to receive 1000 te/month from the mine.
NK Today, No.268 March 2009.
21 A piece in North Korea Today (No.263 January 2009) suggests that DPRK fertilizer output was on the order of
300,000 te, though the units (tonnes of N or of fertilizer in total, for example) of fertilizer output were not specified.
Assuming this is a figure for total fertilizer output, it is reasonably consistent with the 2008 value shown in Note 3, above.
22 Quoting the Bank of Korea, the Website "Trading Economics" (https://tradingeconomics.com/north-k orea/steel-production) quotes
the following figures for DPRK steel production over the years (thousand tonnes): Web page "North Korea Steel Production".
In all probability, these figures are rough estimates, but we use them as figures of merit to scale energy use in the
DPRK iron and steel industry. Figures for 2018 were not available from this source as of 2/2020.

Year

Thousandtonnes
2009
1255
2010
1279
2011
1225
2012
1222
2013
1210
2014
1220
2015
1079
2016
1218
2017
1090

The following Google Earth Pro images are of a factory, possibly the Songnim-Hwanghae Iron and Steel Complex, along the Taedong Riverbetween Nampo and Pyongyang. The image was tak en in November, 2019. Coordinates are approximately 38.737, 125.634. An active smok estack
is visible in the upper left part of the image, along with a coal port and coal storage, and storage of what appears to be iron and/or steel products at
the lower left, near the river.

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23 Quoting the Bank of Korea, the Website "Trading Economics" (https://tradingeconomics.com/north-k orea/cement-production) quotes
the following figures for DPRK cement production over the years (thousand tonnes): Web page "North Korea Cement Production".
In all probability, these figures are rough estimates, but we use them as figures of merit to scale energy use in the
DPRK cement industry. Fractions of heat from heavy oil are estimates used to balance overall heavy fuel oil supply and demand.
As of February 2020, this source did not yet include an estimate for cement output in 2018, thus we assume output in 2018 wassomewhat lower than in 2017 as a result of the general economic slowdown induced by UNSC sanctions. Although most of the inputs
To the DPRK cement industry, with the possible exception of spare parts, are lik ely of domestic origin (coal, limestone, silica),
it seems probable that overall cement use would have declned in 2018 due to a reduction in construction as sanctions affected
other industries and the economy in general.

Year

Thousandtonnes
2009
6126
2010
6279
2011
6452
2012
6446
2013
6600
2014
6675
2015
6697
2016
7077
2017
6838

The table that follows, from https://www.cemnet.com/global-cement-report/country/north-k orea, provides a listing of 10 cement plants in the DPRK.

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The Sangwon Plant listed above, located South and East of Pyongyang, is shown in the Google Maps image below (rough coordinates, 38.876890, 126.036658. What we assume to be limestone
is supplied to this plant from a set of mines a few kilometers away, as shown in the second Google Maps image below (coordinates 38.867119, 126.091016). It is unclear why this mine islabeled "Steel Mine" in the image.

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An image of the Haeju plant listed above follows, from Google Earth Pro. Image date is March, 2018.

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24 A summary of UN Comtrade data on cement (HS 2523) trade between the DPRK and other nations follows.
Over time, the DPRK appears to have transitioned from being mostly a net exporter fo cement to being mostly a net
importer, one explanation for which is that its output is not sufficient to meet domestic demand. Another possibility
is that it imports mostly grades of cement that it cannot manufacture. In any case, the volumes of trade are only
a few percent, in general, of estimated DPRK cement output, so it is probably difficult to read too much into these statistics.

Year

Unit:Tonnes
DPRK Imports from
Other
China
Nations
1990
30
1996
320
30
2000
20,213
7,999
2001
9,818
7,161
2002
20,907
10,375
2003
20,76013,022
2004
20,725
11,907
2005
38,7105,000
2006
52,6383,799
2007
86,49157
2008
70,1292009
61,9604
2010
127,900
1,647
2011
311,562758
2012
185,9211,354
2013
135,527
14,225
2014
173,2213,705
2015
301,407
2,336
2016
228,104
485
2017
77,3720
2018
102,454-DPRK Exports to
Other
China
Nations
232,295
4,617
340
1
3,565
49,8581,266
2,791
27,7283,411
89,510658
54,76032,879680
141,796
141,796
76,360162,055
184,320182
62
040,120337
17,836
12,907-

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25 A summary of UN Comtrade data on "roasted iron pyrite" (HS 2601) and "unroasted iron pyrite" (HS 2502) follows. Most trades
were with China, except as indicated. Volumes of reported exports to China, except for 2018 (due to UNSC sanctions),
are comparable in some years (in iron content) to estimated steel production, indicating that these trades account for an
important fraction of DPRK iron ore production.

Year

Unit:Tonnes
DPRK Imports from
Other
China
Nations
2000
4,790,478
2005
125,0402008
1,420,701
2009
1,222,187
2010
2,065,704
2011
1,164,633
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
75,888
2018
108,504

DPRK Exports to
Other
China
Nations
48,855
1,385,350
1,898,057
1,816,017
2,095,565
2,507,309
2,435,330
3,093,323
2,832,114
1,544,353
1,638,186
1,659,773
456

Imports from Brazil and India. The former may be a reporting error.
Imports from South Africa
Imports from South Africa
Imports from South Africa
Imports from South Africa (most) and Brazil
Imports from South Africa

Imports from India
Imports from India

26 Our understanding is that since the advent of the COVID-19 lock down measures have gone into effect in the DPRK, the output ofsome mines, and, we assume the metals and other minerals refining facilities that they feed, have been affected by reduced accessto spare parts and other inputs. As a result, we assume that output of these products in the DPRK will have fallen by on the order ofa fifth to a third in 2020, relative to 2019, by the time that 2020 is over, with the reduction in output more pronounced in the first half of the year.
27 We assume that since the advent of the COVID-19 lock down measures have gone into effect in the DPRK, the output of most industries
in 2020 has been constrained by a combination of a lack of spare parts, work ers staying at home (or sick , although little if any information has
been made available as to the impact of COVID-19 on the DPRK population), reduced mark ets for goods, and other factors. Similarly,
we assume that as a result of UNSC sanctions, DPRK output in 2018 and 2019 in most industries was somewhat lower than in previous
years, due to reduced access to foreign mark ets and foreign inputs, although some output may have been redirected to the domestic
mark et.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

2/25/2011

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
GENERAL ASSUMPTION:DPRK transport assumed to be

20% more energy intensive than in China or Russia
Notes/Sources:

Oil Use: Road Vehicles
Freight Transported:
4.20E+07 te
Average Distance of transport
75 km
Energy Intensity, Diesel Trucks
3.08 MJ/te-km
Fract Freight on Diesel Trucks
23.93%
Diesel Use, Road Freight
2.32E+06 GJ
Energy Intensity, Gasoline Trucks
5.77 MJ/te-km
Fract Freight on Gasoline Trucks
71.5%
Gasoline Use, Road Freight
1.30E+07 GJ
Total Road Freight Oil Use
1.84E+07 GJ
Number of Civilian Autos in Use
15,500
Average km traveled/yr
8,500
Efficiency, Civilian Autos
1.10E+01 km/liter gasoline
Conversion factor
0.0325 GJ/liter
Gasoline Use, Civilian Autos
3.896E+05 GJ
Economically Active Population
1.38E+07
Per capita Trips/yr
300
Average Trip Distance
16 km
Fract. Trips by Motor Transport
25%
Fraction of Trips by Road
30%
Fraction of km in Diesel Veh.
50%
Energy Intensity, Diesel Oil Transport
75 kgce/kpass-km
Conversion Factor
0.0293 GJ/kgce
Total Passenger Road Diesel Use
5.47E+06 GJ
Fraction of km in Gasoline Veh.
50%
Energy Intensity, Gasoline Transport
98.2 kgce/kpass-km
Total Passenger Road Gas Use
7.16E+06 GJ
Total Oil Use, Pass Vehicles
1.42E+07 GJ
Total Oil Use, Road Vehicles
3.26E+07 GJ
Biomass Use, Road Vehicles
Fract Freight on Biomass-fueled Trucks
4.60%
Efficiency of biomass trucks relative to gasoline
50%
Biomass use, road freight
1.67E+06 GJ
Oil Use: Rail Transport
Freight Transported:
Fraction of Freight on Diesel Rail
Average Distance of transport
Energy Intensity, Diesel Rail
Conversion Factor
Total Rail Freight Oil Use

1.69E+08 te
12.5%
250 km10.5 kgce/kte-km
0.0293 GJ/kgce
1.95E+06 GJ

Oil Use: Water Transport
Freight Transported:
Average Distance of transport
Energy Intensity, Diesel/Heavy Fuel Oil Ships
Conversion Factor
Total Ship Oil Use
Fraction of Ship Oil Use as Heavy Fuel Oil
Total Diesel Oil Use in Ships
Total Heavy Oil Use in Ships

1.80E+07 te
200 km
9.9 kgce/kte-km
0.0293 GJ/kgce
1.25E+06 GJ
50%
6.27E+05
6.27E+05

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1
Guess
19
Guess
19
Guess

11
Guess
11

3
Guess
Guess
Guess
10
Guess
4

Guess
4

14
13

1
10
Guess
18

1
Guess
5

Guess

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Oil Use: Air Transport
Number of Planes (Total)
Number of Planes that are Tu-154 jets
Average Number of Seats/Plane (non-jets)
Average Airspeed During Operation (non-jets)
Average Number of Seats/Plane (jets)
Average Airspeed During Operation (jets)
Annual Operating Hrs/plane-yr--non-jets
Annual Operating Hrs/plane-yr--jets
Implied total seat-km per year
Average Fraction of Seats Occupied
Implied Air Passenger-km
Fuel use per hour (An-24s)
Fuel use per hour (Tu-154s)
Conversion factor
Conversion factor
Total Domestic Air Aviation Gasoline Use
Total Domestic Air Jet Fuel Use
Total Domestic Oil Products Use
Implied Intensity, all planes
International Aviat. Fuel Supplied by DPRK
Total Air Transport Oil Use
Oil Use: Non-Specified Transport
Electricity Use: Rail Transport
Fraction of Freight on Electr. Rail
Average Distance of transport
Energy Intensity, Electric Rail
Conversion Factor
Total Rail Freight Elect Use
Fract. pass. Transp on Elect Rail
Energy Intensity, Electric Rail
Conversion Factor
Total Pass. Rail Elect Use
Total Electricity Use, Rail Transp.
Coal Use: Rail Transport
Coal Use: Water Transport
Electricity Use, Non-specified Transport

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24
8
3
16
50
15, 16500 km/hr
15166
15
900 km/hr
15
300
Guess
750
Guess
4.94E+08
75%
Guess
3.70E+08
3582 liters/hr
125073 liters/hr
170.0321 GJ/liter gasoline
0.0350 GJ/liter jet fuel7.24E+05 GJ
3.99E+05 GJ
1.12E+06 GJ
3.03E-03 GJ/passenger-km
0 GJ
Guess
1.12E+06 GJ
1.00E+06 GJ
Placeholder value
87.5%
300 km28.6 kWh/kte-km
0.0036 GJ/kWh
5.48E+06 GJ
70%
13.2 kgce/kpass-km
0.0293 GJ/kgce
5.39E+06 GJ
1.09E+07 GJ
0 GJ
0 GJ
6.00E+05 GJ

Guess
18

7

Placeholder value

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes:
1 Estimated Freight transported. Korea Foreign Trade Association, "Major Economic Indicators
for North Korea, 1993". Page 34.
2 Chinese 4-ton truck , "CA-10B", c. 1985, from [Chinese data compendium provided by J. Sinton], p.2.
3 Korea Foreign Trade Association, "Major Economic Indicators for North Korea", page 9.
4 For Pass. Vehicles. From: "Energy and Transport in China" in " Energy Mark ets and the Future of
Energy Demand ", LBL, 1988. Chinese data for 1985. Probably high for DPRK.
5 Per 1000 net te-k m. From: "Energy and Transport in China" in " Energy Mark ets and the Future of
Energy Demand ", LBL, 1988. Chinese data for 1985. Probably a bit low for DPRK.
Russian (1970s) energy intensities for ships fueled with heavy oil are very similar to the Chinese value used.
Russian intensities for marine diesel-fueled ships are lower (about 7 k gce/k te) than the value used, but Russian
intensities for inland waterways shipping are higher, about 13 k gce/k te. Russian intensities from V. Kalashnik ov(personal communication, 9/97).
6 Electric generation efficiency, China, 1981. From "Physical Intensity of Selected Industrial Products"
Spreadsheet printout from J. Sinton, LBL.
7 Very rough estimate based on US value for 1989 for commuter rail. From D. Gordon, Steering a New
Course: Transportation, Energy, and the Environment , 1991, p.33. NK fuel efficiency is probably
lower than US but passenger-k m per seat is probably much higher.
8 Korea Foreign Trade Association, "Major Economic Indicators for North Korea", page 37.
9 Rough estimate: DPRK planes assumed to be twice as energy intensive per seat mile as US commercial
commuter airlines in 1989 (US data from reference 7).
10 Economist Intelligence Unit, "China, North Korea Country Profile 1992-93"
11 Estimate by recent visitors of cars in Pyongyang, including 4000 Volvo sedans (of which 3000 are operable),and assuming five years worth of imports of approximately 2500 vehicles per year (used, from Japan,
also from former East Bloc). Fuel economy assumed to average 25 miles/gallon.
Other observers estimate less than 10,000 autos total as of approximately 1990.
12 Fuel use and airspeed is as estimated cor An-24 in Aircraft spreadsheet of Military Energy Use work book .
13 Assumes that efficiency of gasification of biomass for use as motor fuel is about 50 percent.
14 One observer reports that "most truck s outside Pyongyang are fueled with biomass".
Other observers, on the other hand, report few or no biomass truck s in use. We assume 5 percent for 1990.
15 Assumes (based on source 16) that planes that are not jets are An-24s. These are reported to carry 48
to 52 passengers (World-wide Web site "Turk ish World Russian Aircraft", http://www.rz.uni.franfurt.de/~puersuen/tac.htm).
16 Federal Research Division, US Library of Congress (1993), North Korea, A Country Study ,edited by Andrea M. Savada.
17 Assumes Tu-154s, with a range of 5500 k m (source 15) have a fuel capacity similar to that of
the Boeing 727 (31,000 liters--data from World-wide Web site http://boeing.com/bck _html/Boe727.html),
an aircraft similar in size (the 727 is a few percent lighter) and configuration to the Tu-154.
18 Based on energy intensity of Russian rail freight in the 1970s (V. Kalashnik ov, personal communication, 9/97).
19 Based on energy intensity of Russian road freight in the 1970s (V. Kalashnik ov, personal communication, 9/97).
Note that these values are substantially higher (in the case of gasoline truck s, by a factor of 2) than published
Chinese values (for example, see note 2).

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DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEASSUMPTIONS, BACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND IN 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 THROUGH 2010, AND 2014 THROUGH
2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/26/2020

ASSUMPTIONS FOR CHANGES IN TRANSPORT ENERGY USE, 1996, 2000, 2005, AND 2008 THROUGH 2010, and 2014 through 2017
(See Note 5 for Assumptions for 2000)
Population Growth Rate through 2000:
0.08% /yr (See Note 20 in "Residential" worksheet)
Econ. Active. Population Growth Rate 2000-2008:
1.02% /yr
Econ. Active. Population Growth Rate 2008-2010:
0.54% /yr
Econ. Active. Population Growth Rate 2010-2014:
0.50% /yr
Econ. Active. Population Growth Rate after 2014:
0.39% /yr
1996
2000
2005
Economically Active population relative to 1990:
100.5%
100.5%
105.7%
2014
2015
2016
Economically Active population relative to 1990:
112.4%
112.8%
113.3%
2020
Economically Active population relative to 1990:
115.0%

Total Road Freight rel. to 1990
Fraction Road Freight, biomass truck
Fraction Road Freight, diesel truck
Fraction Road Freight, gasoline truck
Total Road Freight rel. to 1990
Fraction Road Freight, biomass truck
Fraction Road Freight, diesel truck
Fraction Road Freight, gasoline truck

1996
32.0%
7.60%
23.00%
69.40%
2015
23.5%
9.5%
55.0%
35.50%

2000
14.0%
9.90%
34.35%
55.75%
2016
25.5%
9.5%
57.5%
33.00%

2005
23.3%
9.64%
70.00%
20.36%
2017
23.0%
10%
51.0%
39.00%

2008
23.9%
9.70%
47.00%
43.30%
2018
21.8%
10%
52.5%
37.50%

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Sources/Notes:(See Note 22 in "Residential" work sheet)2008
109.0%
2017
113.7%

2009
109.6%
2018
114.1%

2010
110.2% Calculated
2019
114.6% Calculated
Calculated

2009
18.0%
9.80%
50.00%
40.20%
2019
21.6%
10%
54.0%
36.00%

2010
20%
9.80%
50.0%
40.20%
2020
16.0%
10%
51.0%
39.00%

Sources/Notes:
2014
22.3%
9.80%
8
52.6%
9
37.60% Calculated

89CalculatedNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Subsector--End Use
Road--Freight--Gasoline
Road--Freight--Diesel
Road--Freight--Biomass
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
Rail--Freight, Diesel
Rail--Freight, Electric
Rail--Passenger, Electric
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFOAir--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)

1996
31.1%
30.8%
52.9%
100.0%
44.4%
57.9%
40.0%
40.0%
44.41%
40.0%
80.0%
35.5%
0.0%

Activity Relative to 1990
2000
2005
10.9%
6.6%
20.1%
68.2%
30.1%
48.8%
73.0%
75.0%
37.9%
67.7%
15.7%
12.8%
30.0%
48.0%
33.0%
32.0%
26.5%
33.0%
38.0%
42.0%
70.0%
80.0%
45.0%
68.0%
0.0%
0.0%

2008
14.5%
46.9%
50.4%
111.0%
45.6%
45.0%
31.0%
39.0%
38.0%
33.0%
87.0%
70.0%
0.0%

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
110%
110.0%
110.0%
105%2
110%
100.0%
100.0%
100%
2
100%
100%
100%
100%
105%
103.0%
97.0%
95.0%
10, 11110%106.0%
105.0%
102%3
110%
100.0%
100.0%
98%
3
100%
100%
100%
100%
2
105%
100%
100%
100%
2
105%
100%
100%
100%
3
100%
100%
100%
100%
2
100%
100%
100%
100% Assumption
4
100%
100%
100%
100%

Subsector--End Use
Road--Freight--Gasoline
Road--Freight--Diesel
Road--Freight--Biomass
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
Rail--Freight, Diesel
Rail--Freight, Electric
Rail--Passenger, Electric
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFOAir--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)

1996
31.1%
30.8%
52.9%
100.0%
44.4%
57.9%
40.0%
40.0%
44.4%
40.0%
75.0%
35.5%
0.0%

Activity Relative to 1990
2009
2010
10.1%
11.2%
37.6%
41.8%
38.3%
42.6%
115.5%
122.0%
35.9%
39.6%
34.2%
40.4%
23.0%
27.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
36.0%
28.0%
30.0%
79.0%
84.0%
70.0%
76.0%
0.0%
0%

2014
11.7%
49.0%
47.5%
128.0%
40.6%
40.0%
27.5%
40.0%
24.0%
27.0%
84.0%
76.0%
0%

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
1996
2009
2010
2014
110%
103%
102%
96%
2
110%
98%
96.5%
89.0%
2
100%
100%
100%
100%
105%
95%
94%
92% Assumption
110%
100%
97%
92%
3
110%
96%
95%
92%
3
100%
100%
100%
98%
2, 12
105%
100%
100%
98%
2, 12
105%
100%
100%
100%
3, 12
100%
100%
100%
100%
2
100%
100%
100%
98% Assumption
3
100%
100%
100%
100%

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Activity Relative to 1990
2015
2016
2017
11.7%
11.8%
12.6%
54.0%
61.3%
49.0%
48.5%
52.7%
50.0%
142.0%
151.0%
150.5%
40.0%
42.7%
37.3%
41.6%
40.1%
38.0%
28.0%
29.0%
27.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
38.0%
41.0%
40.0%
28.0%
29.0%
27.0%
90.0%
95.0%
84.0%
78.0%
79.0%
79.0%
0.0%
0%
0%

Subsector--End Use
Road--Freight--Gasoline
Road--Freight--Diesel
Road--Freight--Biomass
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
Rail--Freight, Diesel
Rail--Freight, Electric
Rail--Passenger, Electric
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFOAir--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)

1996
31.1%
30.8%
52.9%
100.0%
44.4%
57.9%
40.0%
40.0%
44.4%
40.0%
75.0%
35.5%
0.0%

Subsector--End Use
Road--Freight--Gasoline
Road--Freight--Diesel
Road--Freight--Biomass
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
Rail--Freight, Diesel
Rail--Freight, Electric
Rail--Passenger, Electric
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFOAir--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)

Activity Relative to 1990
1996
2019
2020
31.1%
10.9%
8.7%
30.8%
48.7%
34.1%
52.9%
47.0%
34.8%
100.0%
148.5%
124.0%
44.4%
40.1%
28.0%
57.9%
35.0%
28.7%
40.0%
26.0%
19.6%
40.0%
28.0%
28.0%
44.4%
39.0%
39.0%
40.0%
25.5%
16.0%
75.0%
82.2%
52.4%
35.5%
80.0%
80.0%
0.0%
0%
0%

Subsector--End Use
Road--Freight--Gasoline
Road--Freight--Diesel
Road--Freight--Biomass
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
Rail--Freight, Diesel
Rail--Freight, Electric
Rail--Passenger, Electric
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFOAir--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)

1996
110%
110%
100%
105%
110%
110%
100%
105%
105%
100%
100%
100%

2
2
Assumption
3
3
2, 12
2, 12
3, 12
2
Assumption
3

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
2015
2016
2017
95%
102%
98%
88%
88.0%
87%
100%
100%
100%
91%
90%
90%
91%
90%
88%
91%
90%
89%
98%
98%
98%
98%
98%
98%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%

2018
11.4%
2
47.8%
2
47.4%
147.0% Assumption
36.4%
3
37.3%
3
25.7%
2, 12
28.0%
2, 12
39.0%
3, 12
25.5%
2
84.0% Assumption
79.0%
3
0%

100%

2018
98%
2
86.4%
2
100%
89.5% Assumption
87.6%
3
89%
3
98%
2, 12
98%
2, 12
100%
3, 12
100%
2
100% Assumption
3
100%

Energy Intensity Relative to 1990
Subsector--End Use
1996
2019
2020
Road--Freight--Gasoline
110%
98%
98%
2
Road--Freight--Diesel
110%
86.4%
86.4%
2
Road--Freight--Biomass
100%
100%
100%
Road--Civilian Auto Pass-km
105%
89.5%
89.5%
Assumption
Road--Passenger Bus, Diesel
110%
87.4%
87.7%
3
Road--Passenger Bus, Gasoline
110%
89%
89%
3
Rail--Freight, Diesel
100%
98%
98%
2, 12
Rail--Freight, Electric
105%
98%
98%
2, 12
Rail--Passenger, Electric
105%
100%
100%
3, 12
Water--Freight, Diesel and HFO
100%
100%
100%
2
Air--Passenger: Activity levels (fuel)
100%
100%
100%
Assumption
Air--Passenger: Fraction as Jet Fuel3
Non-Specified Transport (Oil/Elect.)
100%
100%
100%
See Notes 17 and 18 for estimates of truck and aircraft energy intensities used in DPRK energy futures studies.

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Type of Vehicles
Electric Scooters* (see Notes 15, 21)Electric Cars** (see Notes 16, 20 )TOTAL
TOTAL Electric Vehicle-km
Cars fraction of total Auto Veh-km
Cars fraction of total 1990 Auto Veh-km
Energy Intensity of electric cars
Type of Vehicles
Electric Scooters* (see Notes 15, 21)Electric Cars** (see Notes 16, 20 )TOTAL
TOTAL Electric Vehicle-km
Cars fraction of total Auto Veh-km
Cars fraction of total 1990 Auto Veh-km
Energy Intensity of electric cars
* Includes rough estimates that imports of(or not yet) reported in 2019, and that** Includes rough estimates that imports of(or not yet) reported in 2019, and that

Units
MWh
GJ
MWh
GJ
MWh
GJ
Scooters
Cars
Total

2010 (andbefore)

9
34.15
9.49
34.15
-

2011

2012

2
5.66
11
41.28
13.04
46.94

11
40.52
12
42.81
23.15
83.33

2013
249
898.081345.36
262.07943.442014
1,044
3,757.13
13
46.89
1,056.67
3,804.02

2015
1,779
6,403.38
13
48.42
1,792.17
6,451.79

2016
4,741
17,068.68
33
119.02
4,774.36
17,187.70
323,411,900

113,150

697,150

17,151,350

57,180,900

110,105,900

268,000

324,000

336,000

356,000

368,000

380,000

575,000

268,000

437,150

1,033,150

17,507,350

57,548,900

110,485,900

323,986,900

0.304%

0.203%

0.289%

0.20%

0.25%

0.26%

0.27%

0.28%

0.29%

0.44%

kWh/km

0.03540.03540.03540.03540.03540.03540.0575

Units
MWh
GJ
MWh
GJ
MWh
GJ
Scooters
Cars
Total

2017
11,241
40,467.98
104374.3011,345.08
40,842.28

2018
13,822
49,760.70
143515.51
13,965.61
50,276.21

201915,13654,490.92
182
656.73
15,318.79
55,147.65

2020
15,69056,483.63
191
689.32
15,881.38
57,172.95

791,397,981

977,252,331

1,071,856,681

1,111,711,031

1,280,000

1,670,000

2,060,000

2,150,000

792,677,981

978,922,331

1,073,916,681

1,113,861,031

0.646%

0.862%

1.053%

1.316%

0.97%

1.27%

1.56%

1.63%

0.08120.08570.08860.08910.22%

kWh/km50,000 electric scooters occurred but were unreported in 2018,
10,000 scooters will be imported in 2020.
25 electric cars occurred but were unreported in 2018,
5 electric cars will be imported in 2020.

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25,000 scooters were imported but not
25 cars were imported but notNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 US Central Intelligence Agency, "Korea, North". CIA Factbook , 1995 (World Wide Web Version).
USCIA, Washington, D.C., USA. 1996.
2 Consistent with general decrease in industrial production through about 2008, but then intensity declines as new imported vehiicles
become more widely used.
3 Assumes that per-capita passenger transport use decreased to 44 to 60 percent of 1990 by 1996 due to austerity
measures, with the decrease continuing through 2000 before increasing slightly in 2005 (based on
the anecdotal observations of visitors to the DPRK), varying thereafter to roughly follow the estimatedavailability of refined fuels.
4 Based on general observations of a decline in air travel through 2000, increasing somewhat in 2001 and 2002,
as more international visitors came to Pyongyang in those years, but declining somewhat thereafter to a current
level that is similar to that in 1990. It is assumed that a larger fraction of travelers are carried on jet aircraft
as opposed to the older propellor-driven DPRK planes.
5 No specific data were available for the transport sector for 2000, so estimates of the parameters in these tables arerough figures based on the experiences of Nautilus staff and others in the DPRK. It is assumed that the use of producergas-fueled truck s would increase somewhat as a fraction of overall freight transport, but that the increase would be modest.
Visitors to the DPRK have generally noted a modest increase in the use of small "private" cars and mini-vans in thelast several years. The use of other vehicles, however, seems to have stayed the same or decreased slightly, thus
the slight decrease in vehicle use between 1996 and 2000 relative to 1990. No change in the efficiency of vehicles
was assumed between 1996 and 2000, as any efficiency gains through the introduction of a few new vehicles seems
lik ely to be counterbalanced by continuing problems with the availability of spare parts. We saw many disabled truck salong the road in areas not far from Pyongyang.
6 The website http://www.answers.com/topic/north-k orea, visited 1/15/07, listed the following as the ships in the
DPRK merchant marine as of 2005: "total: 238 ships (1,000 GRT or over) 985,108 GRT/1,389,389 DWT by type:bulk carrier 13, cargo 191, container 2, livestock carrier 4, passenger/cargo 5, petroleum tank er 13,
refrigerated cargo 5, roll on/roll off 5 foreign-owned: 52 (China 1, Denmark 2, France 1, Greece 4, Italy 1, Lebanon 4,
Lithuania 1, Netherlands 1, Pak istan 2, Romania 10, Russia 2, Singapore 2, South Korea 2, Syria 9,
Turk ey 6, Uk raine 1, UAE 3).
7 China Customs Statistics reported transport vehicles exports from China to the DPRK as follows for 2000 through2005. As compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
Values for years after 2005 are from UN Comtrade database, accessed 8/2018.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ROAD VEHICLES IMPORTS TO DPRK FROM CHINA
Units: Number of Vehicles
Description
HS (code)
MOTOR TRUCKS
8704
PASSENGER MOTOR
8703
OT SPEC PURPOSE M VEH
8705
MOTORCYCLES
8711
TRACTORS,NOT IN 8709
8701
PUB TRANS MV>10PERS
8702
PART/ACCESS 8701-8705
8708
PART,ACCESS 8711-8713
8714
BICYCLES+OTHER CYCLES
8712
TRAIL,ET,NT MEC PROPL
8716
M VHCL CHASSIS W/ENGN
8706
MOTOR VEHICL BODIES
8707
CARRIAGES FOR DISABLEDPERSONS,MOTORIZED OR NOT
8713
Description
MOTOR TRUCKSPASSENGER MOTOROT SPEC PURPOSE M VEH
MOTORCYCLESTRACTORS,NOT IN 8709
PUB TRANS MV>10PERS
PART/ACCESS 8701-8705
PART,ACCESS 8711-8713
BICYCLES+OTHER CYCLESTRAIL,ET,NT MEC PROPLM VHCL CHASSIS W/ENGN
MOTOR VEHICL BODIESCARRIAGES FOR DISABLEDPERSONS,MOTORIZED OR NOT

HS (code)

Description
MOTOR TRUCKSPASSENGER MOTOROT SPEC PURPOSE M VEH
MOTORCYCLESTRACTORS,NOT IN 8709
PUB TRANS MV>10PERS
PART/ACCESS 8701-8705
PART,ACCESS 8711-8713
BICYCLES+OTHER CYCLESTRAIL,ET,NT MEC PROPLM VHCL CHASSIS W/ENGN
MOTOR VEHICL BODIESCARRIAGES FOR DISABLEDPERSONS,MOTORIZED OR NOT

HS (code)

2000
770
1,529
75
1,354
28
337
12,400
10
3

2001
677
629
40
62
47
233
4,066
4
2

2002
955
9
30
86
14
53,601
16
6

2003
1,409
65
10
1
65
38
1,020
2
7

2004
2,108
145
26
701
234
82
7,745
2
15

2005
2,444
244
29
3,433
401
89
12,958
24
38

200

-

387

132

548

552

8704
8703
8705
8711
8701
8702
8708
8714
8712
8716
8706
8707

2006
1996
582
29
599
310
286
469,951
701,795
7,700
113,037
24
44

2007
3,312
684
58
2,633
712
546
1,073,187
0
9,191
185,501
7
35

2008
1,551
980
88
1,457
621
437
481,149
01,800
282,925
9
115

2009
3,111
2773
92
1,957
661
330
417,527
0
9,018
124,009
2
93

2010
4,015
3183
126
1,736
1196
934
720,248
3,081,641
43,802
188,999
6
324

2011
5,894
3,413
122
2,270
1,028
685
680,927 Units: kg
4,325,620 Units: kg
46,606
194,118 Units: kg
1,028
114

8713

806

805

453

447

223

519

8704
8703
8705
8711
8701
8702
8708
8714
8712
8716
8706
8707

2012
6,788
3,599
139
2,978
808
879
658,840
6,028,696
63,506
0
4
0

2013
6,381
3,860
159
6,772
1898
946
969,188
6,557,047
51,821
351,841
4
174

2014
5,032
2,169
233
19,465
3,330
784
791,540
9,384,798
113,910412,629
12
106

2015
5,738
1,992
179
16,8881,607
895
563,252
8,354,697
183,781202,304
5
151

2016
8,203
2,365
151
60,1191,409
1989
431,950
5,860,575
274,097
311,737
6
139

2017
3,073
2,630
72
130,059
1,404
2,204
1,328,382
7,158,369
199,750
262,182
2
13

8713

449

250

493

613

643

376

Note: for category 8710, "Tanks and other armaments….", no trades are listed in Comtrade from China to the DPRK, at least after 2005

A1- 348

2018
20
46
3
919
69
69
49,626 Units: kg
124,884 Units: kg
3,349
0 Units: kg
0
41

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Additional Detail on Motor Trucks (HS 8704)
Description
HS (code)
Vehicles, Dumpers, Designed for off870410
highway Use
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5870421
tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5 to87042220 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel..
870423More than 20 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870431
ignition.. 5 tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870432
ignition…over 5 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…n.e.s.
870490

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0

4

19

32

211

178

33

26

236

199

95

224

173

201

84

108

273

634

0

4

5

18

45

256

164

72

122

508

572

387

400
-

369
1

489
0

536
0

985
0

767
0

Description
HS (code)
Vehicles, Dumpers, Designed for off870410
highway Use
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5870421
tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5 to87042220 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel..
870423More than 20 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870431
ignition.. 5 tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870432
ignition…over 5 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…n.e.s.
870490

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

110

73

28

187

9

110

161

299

206

284

591

1,270

668

589

222

778

813

710

120

611

756

1,005

1,951

3,080

227

314

118

204

338

554

695
15

1,426
0

221
0

653
0

313
0

170
0

Description
HS (code)
Vehicles, Dumpers, Designed for off870410
highway Use
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5870421
tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel.. 5 to87042220 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…diesel..
870423More than 20 tonnes
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870431
ignition.. 5 tonnes or less
Vehicles for goods transport…spark
870432
ignition…over 5 tonnes

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

60

26

23

24

86

127

0

1,777

1,710

1,596

1,758

1,807

936

7

919

803

806

1,198

1,926

525

0

2,766

2,747

2,012

1,989

3,175

623

2

998

712

468

699

1,118

976

11

268

383

127

70

91

1

0

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Additional Detail on Motorcycles (HS 8711, "Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles fitted with an auxiliary motor, with or without side-cars; side-cars")
Description
HS (code)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity not exceeding
50 cc

871110With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 50 cc
but not exceeding 250 cc

871120With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 250
cc but not exceeding 500 cc

871130With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 500
cc but not exceeding 800 cc:
Other871140871190Description
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity not exceeding
50 ccWith reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 50 cc
but not exceeding 250 cc
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 250
cc but not exceeding 500 cc
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 500
cc but not exceeding 800 cc:
Other

Description
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity not exceeding
50 ccWith reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 50 cc
but not exceeding 250 cc
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 250
cc but not exceeding 500 cc
With reciprocating internal combustion piston
engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 500
cc but not exceeding 800 cc:
With electric motor for propulsion
Other

692

30

15

1

101

36

63

3324

50
487

37
36
2011

10

564
98

9
23

3
2

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

871110

105

225

291

771

102

871120

373

464

381

629

1291

HS (code)8711303871140871190

2,229

5

10

121

1944

785

552

340

31

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

871110

20

2

4

3

871120

2743

2,071

3695

2351

1,679

3,133

100

34

15,666

14,50058,440128,14571

HS (code)

201887113087114024

871160871190191

4,699

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Additional Detail on Passenger Cars (HS 8703, "MOTOR CARS AND OTHER MOTOR VEHICLES PRINCIPALLY DESIGNED FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF PERSONS (OTHER THAN THOSE OF HEADING 8702), INCLUDING STATION WAGONS AND RACING CARS.")
Description
HS (code)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Classification of Vehicles specially designed
for travelling on snow; golf cars and similarvehicles, including the driver
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1000 cc but
not exceeding 1500 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 3000 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 3000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1500,
Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 2500 cc, Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 2500 cc,
Diesel-powered
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, but not capbable ofbeing plugged in to charge batteries (nonplug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, but not capbable of being
plugged in to charge batteries (non-plug-in
hybrids, diesel)
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in diesel
hybrids)
Vehicles with only electric motors for
propulsion
Other

Description
Classification of Vehicles specially designed
for travelling on snow; golf cars and similarvehicles , including the driver
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1000 cc but
not exceeding 1500 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 3000 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 3000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1500 cc,
Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 2500 cc, Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 2500 cc,
Diesel-powered
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, but not capbable ofbeing plugged in to charge batteries (nonplug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, but not capbable of being
plugged in to charge batteries (non-plug-in
hybrids, diesel)
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in diesel
hybrids)
Vehicles with only electric motors for
propulsion
Other

87031028703211870322348703231519

623

8703244122870331870332

1

5

2

15

133

222

46

4

2

1

1

1

14

3

870333870340870350870360870370870380870390HS (code)

2006

2007

1

1

1

3

2008

2009

2010

2011

13

14

19

8703102870321

6

1

16

27

35

870322

12

2

275

654

531

870323

346

588

955

2452

2439

2788

87032420262

6870331587033219870333

10

6

4

1

19

1

1

2

9

6

1

16

10

46

14

870340870350870360870370870380870390A1- 357

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Description
Classification of Vehicles specially designed
for travelling on snow; golf cars and similarvehicles , including the driver
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1000 cc but
not exceeding 1500 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 3000 cc, Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 3000 cc,
Spark-ignition
Of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 1500 cc,
Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1500 cc but
not exceeding 2500 cc, Diesel-powered
Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 2500 cc,
Diesel-powered
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, but not capbable ofbeing plugged in to charge batteries (nonplug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, but not capbable of being
plugged in to charge batteries (non-plug-in
hybrids, diesel)
Vehicles with both spark-ignition engines
and electric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in hybrids)
Vehicles with both diesel engines andelectric motors, and capbable of being
plugged in for charging (plug-in diesel
hybrids)
Vehicles with only electric motors for
propulsion
Other

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

870310

4

18

2

3

5

870321

129

292

31

122

42

7

870322

521

1462

390

565

1113

987

36

870323

2936

2081

1735

1290

1153

947

9

3

2

19

1

HS (code)

870324870331

2017

2018

1

8703324870333

2

2

2

6

11

3

1

9

1

870340187035058703608703708703808703903

5

A1- 358

3

3

13

30
17

1

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
RAIL EQUIPMENT IMPORTS TO DPRK FROM CHINA
Units: Number of Vehicles except as noted
Description
HS (code)
2000
RAIL LOCOMOTIVE,ELECT
8601
OT N-EL LCMTV;TENDERS
8602
OT S-PRPL RLWAY COACH
8603
220
RLWAY MAINT/SERV VHCL
8604
N-S-P RWAY PASS COACH
8605
26
N-S-P RLWAY FRGHT CAR
8606
42
LOCOMOTV/R STOCK PRTS (Units: kg) 8607
347,698
RLWAY FXTUR; MECH EQP (Units: kg) 8608
CONTNR (1+TRANS MODE)
8609
100
Total Value of Rail Equipment Imports
86$ 7,008,447 $Description
RAIL LOCOMOTIVE,ELECTOT N-EL LCMTV;TENDERSOT S-PRPL RLWAY COACH
RLWAY MAINT/SERV VHCL
N-S-P RWAY PASS COACH
N-S-P RLWAY FRGHT CAR
LOCOMOTV/R STOCK PRTS (Units: kg)
RLWAY FXTUR; MECH EQP (Units: kg)
CONTNR (1+TRANS MODE)
Total Value of Rail Equipment Imports

HS (code)

8601
8602
8603
8604
8605
8606
8607
8608
8609
86

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
3
1
3
12 $
$
5
13
8
6
7
$
8
5
50
13 $ 2,036,000
2
2 $
$
6
5
$ 4,564,992 $83612183 $ 116,000 $
110,7532
181,596
104,980
133,615 $ 235,455 $
83,000561,30080,00057,472 $$16
214
1 $ 56,000 $
405,446 $ 2,192,371 $ 2,414,254 $ 730,806 $ 3,017,741 $ 7,008,447 $2001$
254,555 $$$$$
75,000 $65,243 $10,648 $405,446 $

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
2007
9
4
10
5
19
38 $ 138,191 $
45,326 $2321
83
6 $ 175,000 $ 180,750 $
5
20
100
5
31
10 $ 20,000 $ 250,255 $1
1$6,700 $$
28
5
4 $
1,000 $
$
256
167
123
185
340
588 $ 1,071,279 $ 475,574 $
52,296
13,75599,393
343,703756,845
850,450 $ 260,938 $
19,010 $60,00043,05543,43542,51546,09564,720 $ 33,600 $ 112,323 $
5
14
22
10
32
18 $ 19,850 $
25,500 $$ 1,726,558 $ 1,108,738 $ 5,497,916 $ 7,411,428 $ 8,197,901 $ 15,029,140 $ 1,726,558 $ 1,108,738 $Description
HS (code)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
RAIL LOCOMOTIVE,ELECT
8601
22
7
12
10
12
10 $ 207,185 $
95,607 $OT N-EL LCMTV;TENDERS
8602
10
6
20
4
5
3 $ 3,991,884 $ 1,841,638 $OT S-PRPL RLWAY COACH
8603
1
8
2
2
3 $ 13,621$
RLWAY MAINT/SERV VHCL
8604
$
$
$
N-S-P RWAY PASS COACH
8605
18
14
5
10
1 $ 8,160,000 $
41,906 $N-S-P RLWAY FRGHT CAR
8606
1,132
628
447
129
307
25 $ 14,776,198 $ 4,950,479 $LOCOMOTV/R STOCK PRTS (Units: kg) 8607
501,514
246,788634,045
1,025,944
211,052
1,073,359 $ 771,785 $ 339,192 $RLWAY FXTUR; MECH EQP (Units: kg) 8608
52,43555,64055,9108,938
3,927
13,008 $ 164,631 $ 171,575 $CONTNR (1+TRANS MODE)
8609
19
20
20
7
7
5 $ 64,135 $ 106,315 $Total Value of Rail Equipment Imports
86$ 28,149,439 $ 7,546,712 $ 12,973,678 $ 4,290,894 $ 3,065,944 $ 2,454,888 $ 28,149,439 $ 7,546,712 $Note that no trades from China were reported in the above categories in 2018, and only a handful of small volume trades from elsewhere, mostly Russia.

A1- 359

Value of Trades by Category
2002
2003
2004
81,982 $7,101 $ 59,070 $1,780,787 $
349,500 $ 226,100 $
147,500 $20,000 $ 232,000 $
$
1,450
$
4,500 $
1,710,000 $
36,210 $13,850 $ 12,684 $
38,620 $233,203 $ 119,335 $
82,272 $48,550 $ 76,117 $
20,500 $30,600 $5,500 $
2,192,371 $
2,414,254 $ 730,806 $Value of Trades by Category
2008
2009
2010
132,711 $57,406 $ 318,213 $2,497,120 $
2,512,374 $ 697,000 $
1,752,840 $
65,000 $ 342,000 $$$
2,850 $$
2,510,000 $ 2,256,000 $
829,406 $1,635,019 $ 3,380,011 $
142,694 $493,438 $ 986,003 $112,109 $117,567 $ 146,440 $
31,036 $20,624 $ 69,384 $
5,497,916 $
7,411,428 $ 8,197,901 $Value of Trades by Category
2014
2015
2016
188,164 $
115,977 $ 141,805 $
4,915,809 $
832,683 $ 674,139 $
62,405 $45,600 $ 16,180 $$$$
1,660,000 $
1,713,200 $$5,004,249 $
526,896 $ 1,911,474 $
871,449 $962,044 $ 301,914 $
168,198 $24,004 $9,722 $
103,404 $70,490 $ 10,710 $
12,973,678 $
4,290,894 $ 3,065,944 $2005
153,073
648,744
70,00014,0001,239,113
733,731
141,944
17,136
3,017,741
2011
548,932
4,116,374
196,500
1,280,000
7,521,529
1,065,457
212,915
87,43315,029,140
2017
122,738
387,40221,78060,000610,380
1,160,542
64,88627,1602,454,888

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 360

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 361Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Additional Detail on Rail locomotives and cars (HS 8601, "Rail locomotives; powered from an external source of electricity or byelectric accumulators", HS 8602, "Rail locomotives; (other than those of heading no. 8601), locomotive tenders", and HS 8606
"Railway or tramway goods vans and wagons; not self-propelled") (number of units)
Description
HS (code)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Rail locomotives; powered from an externalsource of electricity
8601100031111Rail locomotives; powered by electric
accumulators
860120000021Rail locomotives; diesel-electric powered
86021005824Rail locomotives and locomotive tenders;
other than diesel-electric powered
Self-discharging vans and wagons,
railway/tramway
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
open with non-removable sides
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
n.e.s. in heading no 8606

Value of Trades by Category
2002
2003
2004

2000

2001

2005

0

0

$81,982$7,101$6,410$138,073000$254,555

0$1,676,400

0$90,500$52,660$15,000$44,800

860290

0

5

5

6

6

6

0

$254,555$104,387$259,000$226,100$598,744

860630

0

0

0

0

10

0

0

0

0

0

$4,2000860692

28

0

8

0

0

79

$68,7500$12,00000$872,793

860699

14

0

45

36

2

104

$47,2500$366,320

Description
HS (code)
Rail locomotives; powered from an externalsource of electricity
860110Rail locomotives; powered by electric
accumulators
860120Rail locomotives; diesel-electric powered
860210Rail locomotives and locomotive tenders;
other than diesel-electric powered
860290Self-discharging vans and wagons,
railway/tramway
860630Railway or tramway goods vans andwagons; covered and closed
860691
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
open with non-removable sides
860692
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
n.e.s. in heading no 8606
860699

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2006

2007

$24,210$13,850$8,484
Value of Trades by Category
2008
2009
2010

5

1

10

2

15

35

$93,391$10,000$132,711$13,600$236,557$494,442

4
6

3
1

0
1

3
8

4
3

3
4

$44,800$226,100$35,326$102,100

0$160,000$43,806$2,512,374$81,656$697,000$54,490$4,090,800

1

2

20

0

0

2

$70,000$78,650$2,337,120

00$25,574

31

12

29

32

22

15

$18,100$4,500$15,418$25,660$16,089$12,308

0

0

0

15

10

12

0

0

0

$68,934$200,000$261,000

99

126

72

128

213

437

$945,510$450,089$776,998$1,473,105$3,077,891$7,050,519

126

29

22

10

95

124

$107,669$20,985$197,702

Description
HS (code)
Rail locomotives; powered from an externalsource of electricity
860110Rail locomotives; powered by electric
accumulators
860120Rail locomotives; diesel-electric powered
860210Rail locomotives and locomotive tenders;
other than diesel-electric powered
860290Self-discharging vans and wagons,
railway/tramway
860630Railway or tramway goods vans andwagons; covered and closed
860691
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
open with non-removable sides
860692
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons,
n.e.s. in heading no 8606
860699

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2012

2013

$36,990$67,320$86,031
Value of Trades by Category
2014
2015
2016

22

6

12

8

11

0

$207,185$79,607$188,164$97,789$130,628$114,067

0
9

1
6

0
13

2
3

1
3

0
0
$16,000
0 $3,873,384 $1,841,638

0$4,086,309$18,188$714,183$11,177$437,139$8,671$387,402

1

0

7

1

2

0

$118,500

0$829,500$118,500$237,000

0

84

250

62

21

52

78

$47,734$161,788$32,038$9,683$25,225$37,691

15

1

0

0

9

0

$419,772$25,50000$146,500

0

963

294

322

54

126

22 $14,257,167$4,531,757$4,793,564$428,271$1,644,245$478,037

70

83

63

54

120

57

$231,434$178,647$88,942$95,504$94,652

A1- 362$51,525

2011

2017

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

2000

Detail for Railway Locomotive and Rail Freight Cars Imports from China to DPRK, 2000 - 2017
(number)Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons, n.e.s. in heading no 8606
Rail or tramway goods vans and wagons, open with non-removable sides
Railway or tramway goods vans and wagons; covered and closed
Self-discharging vans and wagons, railway/tramway
Rail locomotives and locomotive tenders; other than diesel-electric powered
Rail locomotives; diesel-electric powered
Rail Locomotives Using Battery PowerRail Locomotives Using External Electricity Source

1000

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

A1- 363

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SHIPS AND BOATS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT IMPORTS TO DPRK FROM CHINA
Units: Number of Vessels except as noted
Description
HS (code)
2000
2001
2002
2003
SHIPS AND BOATS (Number, through
8906)
89
23
38
18
23
SHIPS AND BOATS (Value)89$493,435$40,870$602,175$95,418
TRANSPORT PERSON/GOOD
8901
1
0
4
0
FISH VESSEL;OTH SHIPS
8902
0
0
1
0
YCHT & OT PLEAS VESSL
8903
20
38
0
19
TUGS AND PUSHER CRAFT
8904
1
0
0
0
LGT-VESS,FL DOCKS ETC
8905
0
0
0
0
OT VESSEL,N ROW BOATS
8906
1
0
13
4
OT FLT STRUCT,RFT,ETC
8907
0
0
0
160
Note: Based on their reported value of $1.45 million US, the four "transport person/goods" vessels imported by the
DPRK in 2005 seem likely to be fairly large vessels.
Description
SHIPS AND BOATS (Number, through
8906)
SHIPS AND BOATS (Value)
TRANSPORT PERSON/GOOD
FISH VESSEL;OTH SHIPSYCHT & OT PLEAS VESSLTUGS AND PUSHER CRAFT
LGT-VESS,FL DOCKS ETC
OT VESSEL,N ROW BOATSOT FLT STRUCT,RFT,ETC

HS (code)

89
89
8901
8902
8903
8904
8905
8906
8907

2006

2007

2008

72
$3,584,837
4
7
51
0
3
7
951

42
$5,124,227
3
10
22
0
5
2
24

129
$358,960
3
71
52
0
1
2
893

2009

2004
65
$163,470
0
5
51
0
0
9
1230

2005

2000

55
$1,678,296 $ 493,435 $
4$390,000
110
30$12,000
0$87,700
30
7$3,735
7
0

2010

2011

2006

Value of Trades
2003

2001

2002

40,870 $00$40,8700000602,175 $$311,620$28,600
000$261,955
0

2007

2008

87
232
187
$832,829 $4,275,740 $16,338,482 $ 3,584,837 $ 5,124,227 $41
0
18 $3,510,000 $4,915,042
0
143
11$12,100$9,60030
70
125$23,020$5,500
0
0
0
0
0
14
16
32
$20,500$51,327
2
3
1$5,390$28,070306
7523
85$13,827$9,393

95,418 $00$19,31000$50,230$25,878

Value of Trades
2009

2005

163,470 $0$31,000$47,58100$83,593$1,296

2010

2,877,938

0$239,516$40,4830$2,550,229$3,400$44,310$

2,671,721$1,094,685
0$11,5370$1,553,961
0$11,538

1,678,296$1,449,000$6,535$25,0710$177,411$10,600$9,6792011

358,960 $
832,829 $ 4,275,740 $$462,600$48,1010$30,000
0 $2,749,000$21,945$87,490$220,983
000$11,450$655,448 $1,187,330$41,828$21,500$78,434$49,211$20,290$39,993
Value of Trades
2014
2015
2016

Description
HS (code)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
SHIPS AND BOATS (Number, through
8906)
89
132
68
239
108
59
5
SHIPS AND BOATS (Value)89$12,070,224 $3,631,864 $13,163,370 $2,877,938 $2,671,721$1,980 $ 12,070,224 $ 3,631,864 $
13,163,370 $TRANSPORT PERSON/GOOD
8901
10
10
18
0
6
0 $10,283,010 $1,444,950$3,971,449
FISH VESSEL;OTH SHIPS
8902
2
0
8
1
0
0
$52,0000$1,809,876
YCHT & OT PLEAS VESSL
8903
92
32
157
68
29
5
$168,529$24,612$411,631
TUGS AND PUSHER CRAFT
8904
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
$623,360
LGT-VESS,FL DOCKS ETC
8905
28
25
54
38
24
0 $1,558,674 $2,103,268$5,201,342
OT VESSEL,N ROW BOATS
8906
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
$42,533$50,000
OT FLT STRUCT,RFT,ETC
8907
80
167
676
156
820
0
$8,011$16,501$1,095,712
Note that no trades from China were reported in the above categories in 2018, and only a handful of small volume trades exports involving other nations were reported.

A1- 364

2004$

16,338,482$11,213,529$1,726,660$192,641
0$3,184,252$2,022$19,3782017
Totalsthrough 2017
1,980 $ 68,005,836
0 $ 39,093,986
0 $ 6,694,887$1,980 $ 1,355,183
0 $
711,060
0 $ 18,255,192
0 $683,290
0 $ 1,365,017

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Ships, Boats and Related Equipment Imports from China to DPRK, 2000 - 2017 (number)
300
Vessels for Transport of Persons and Goods

250

Fishing Vessels
Yachts and Other Pleasure/Sports Vessels

200

Tugs and Pusher Craft

Light Vessels, Floating Docks, other Floating Equipment

150

Vessels, Including Warships and Lifeboats, Except Rowboats

100

50
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

A1- 365

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SHIPS AND BOATS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT IMPORTS TO DPRK FROM OTHER NATIONS (larger trades), AND EXPORTS FROM DPRK TO OTHER NATIONS
Description
IMPORTS FROM OTHER NATIONS, HS
8901 through 8907 (Larger trades only)

Unit
NUMBER
VALUE

2000
0
0

2001
0
0

2002
0
0

EXPORTS FROM THE DPRK IN HS
8908, SHIPS FOR SCRAPNUMBER
KG
VALUE

12,702,209$231,000

0
0
0

0
0
0

Description
IMPORTS FROM OTHER NATIONS, HS
8901 through 8907 (Larger trades only)

Unit
NUMBERVALUE
NUMBER
KG
VALUE

2006
821
$1,828,716
3
8,808,654$1,643,284

2007
639,933
2,155,528000EXPORTS FROM THE DPRK IN HS
8908, SHIPS FOR SCRAP

Description
IMPORTS FROM OTHER NATIONS, HS
8901 through 8907 (Larger trades only)
EXPORTS FROM THE DPRK IN HS
8908, SHIPS FOR SCRAP

2003
2004
2005
586
4
1,207
$1,801,871 $1,634,592 $ 4,308,846
6
3
17,704,547 15,624,969$2,334,699 $3,056,769

5
15,134,145$2,690,047

2008
2009
2010
2011
7,527
0
0
1
4,774,10900$860,00021352,206,667 2083333.333 104,349,483
80,483,717$680,332$500,000 $ 18,073,258 $24,392,412

Unit
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NUMBER
0
0
4
0
0
VALUE
0
0
$560,87600
NUMBER*
6
8
4
4
10
KG**
44,540,448 27,958,110
12,827,048
5,920,165 127,161,958
VALUE$14,305,589 $9,641,653$4,344,036$2,012,856 $28,706,866*Note that this total is a minimum, as not all trades list number of ships scrapped.
**Includes some estimates of weight based on value per kg of recent trades.

2017
0
0
1
3,839,800$869,246 $Totals2018 through 20170
650,083
0 $ 17,924,538
062
0 471,345,253$ 113,482,047

Note that the above excludes some reported imports by countries other than China in categories other than 8908 (ships for scrap metal) because weare not sure if the trades were mis-reported or actual sales of vessels and related equipment by the DPRK to other nations. Some of the tradesthat seem most lik ely to have been mis-reported include a sale listed in HS 8901 with a value of$ 55,223,043 to Spain in 2000,
a sale of a vessel in HS 8901 with a value of$94,051,208 to Greece in 2008, and sale of a vessel, again in category 8901,
to India in 2017 for$8,860,024 . Possibilities explanations for these reports are that these are actually vessels that werebuilt in the ROK, which is second internationally in shipbuilding of commercial vessels, and simply individual trades mis-reported as from the DPRK,
or that they are ships that were destined for scrap but not reported in category 8908.

A1- 366

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 367

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
8 Anecdotal reports indicate that the use of biomass-fueled (gasifier-using) truck s remain very common in some areasof the DPRK, even in the years 2000 - 2005. We have assumed values of about 10 percent after 1996, withslight adjustments to balance fuel supply and demand.
9 Visitors to the DPRK, including the authors, have noted an increase in the number of imported, mostly diesel, truck s
in use in the DPRK. Increasing imports of truck s from China from 2001 through 2005 reinforce these observations.
Values shown are rough assumptions, adjusted slightly to balance fuel supply and demand.
10 Visitors to the DPRK, including the authors, have noted an increase in the number of imported automobiles inrecent years. This observation is reinforced by the import statistics above. We assume that these vehicles are more
efficient, on average, than the older vehicles (a declining percentage of them DPRK-made) in the DPRK automobile
fleet, thus the improvement in energy intensity that is assumed over time. The increase in the number ofimports of motorcycles noted above also supports this trend in efficiency improvement (gasoline use by private
motorcycles is reported in the same row as gasoline use in private autos).
11 Another point of reference on the DPRK road vehicle sector is provided by the following from dprk guidebook .org (undated, but
probably 2006 or 2007), in "III - MAIN INDUSTRIAL SECTORS & BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES" available as
http://dprk guidebook .org/contents_3.htm. Though this source claims that only 3000 passenger cars were on the roads of the DPRK
as of 2005, that figure seems somewhat at odds with (too low relative to) the anecdotal reports and official import statistics
described above. The text quoted below appears in the source under the headings "Automotive Industry" and "Passenger Cars".

"DPRK’s automotive industry was born in November 1950 with the construction of the 600.000 m2 Tokchon Motor Plant in Tokchon City,
South Pyongan Province, The factory name was changed to Sungri ( Victory ) Motor Plant in 1975 and produced a number of DPRK “classics”
still to be seen on the country’s roads. The "Sungri-58" truck debuted in November 1958 and was followed by the "Sungri 4.25" truck, the"Jaju" 5-seat passenger car, the "Konsol" ( Construction ) passenger car, the "Kumsusan" 40-ton truck, the "Paekdusan" ( Mount Paekdu )passenger car and the "Kwangbok" jeep. The production of the "Mount Kumsusan" truck is said to have been discontinued because ofexcessive fuel consumption, among other reasons.like the WWII vintage “Jaju” ( independence ), “Sungri” trucks, the rickety “Kaengsaeng”
Jeep as well as buses and trolleybuses assembled with imported parts.. Production facilities are concentrated at the foot of Mount Sungri in
Tokchon City. Some of the facilities were built by the Chinese as a logistical base during the Korean War (1950-53). Car assembly and parts
manufacturing are done on the ground, and most vehicle parts except glass and tires are produced there. The Sungri Motor Work s further
received Czechoslovakian assistance to build improved trucks. The country’s vehicle production capacity has grown to 33.000 u nits per annum
as of 1997 through continuous expansion and diversification of the types of vehicle produced. When China and Russia, major su ppliers of partsand fuel, demanded cash instead of barter starting from 1993, the domestic vehicle industry was severely affected. The declin e went on until
actual production bottomed to 1.300 vehicles in 1999. In 2004, domestic production climbed to 4.500 units and total number of vehicles on
DPRK roads was estimated at around 250.000, 3.000 of them being passenger cars. Since all High-tech parts such as carburetors, filters andfuel injection pumps are imported in large quantities, the localization rate of the industry is estimated well below 60 %. Th e low quality of
locally produced parts has a direct impact on overall quality of domestically produced vehicle and breakdowns are very frequent.""DPRK has never given any priority to the production of passenger cars given its ideological choice in favor of public transp ortation, the longban on private ownership of a car and the absolute control exerted on the population’s mobility. Passenger cars in DPRK repre sent nowadays
around 3.000 units : they are either imported second-hand cars from Japan, Russian cars ( VOLGA ) or sometimes Romanian cars ( DACIA ) but
the biggest fleet is still made by ageing MERCEDES-BENZ 190, 230 and others makes imported from Germany through the Trade Office of the
DPRK Embassy in Vienna for the exclusive use of Party Central Committee members ( mostly blue Mercedes 230 and newer types ) as well as
official foreign delegations ( Bordeaux red 190 models ). Since 2005 however, Pyongyang has decided for budgetary reasons to importhundreds of VOLKSWAGEN directly from Germany to gradually replace their fleet of MERCEDES which are costly to maintain.""In 2002, South-Korea’s Unification Church through its automobile business arm Pyeonghwa Motorsinvested U$ 55 millions together with
DPRK’s Korea Ryongbong Corporation to build the first ever foreign automotive Joint-Venture factory between Nampo and Pyongyang andstarted assembling FIAT SIENA ( under the Korean name “Hwiparam”) and a small SUV, the FIAT DOBLO ( under the Korean name “Po kkugi”) in
association with a Chinese local maker, Dandong Shuguang Automobile. The venture targets the burgeoning middle-class in Pyongyang as wellas the foreign community and elite. Cars typically sell around U$ 10.000 and the venture foresees to produce 20.000 units ann ually from 2006
and later even export its products to China, Russia and South-Korea. Pyeonghwa Motors also imports second-hand Japanese and foreign carsand is said to have secured the exclusivity to conduct all second-hand car business in DPRK. It was also Pyeonghwa Motors who paid for the
first ever outdoor advertising in DPRK in 6 locations of Pyongyang for its Hwiparam car."A1- 368

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Pyeonghwa Motors Factory in Nampo (source as above)

12 In recent years, chronic electricity shortages have reportedly caused the DPRK to rely more on diesel-powered trains, including
bringing old locomotives reserved for emergency use back into service (see, for example,
Joon Ho Kim, Yunju Kim, and Roseanne Gerin (2015), "North Korea Resorts to Diesel Locomotives to Deal with Rail Power Shortage", Radio Free Asia, dated 2015-04-08
available as http://www.rfa.org/english/news/k orea/authorities-use-diesel-locomotives-04082015165102.html).
We assume that this caused a significant decrease in the fraction of passenger and freight traffic transported by electric rail.
13 We have not been able to obtain a definitive and complete listing of the number and tonnage of goods transport vessels in use by the DPRK, but the article"Busting North Korea’s Sanctions-Evading Fleet", by Keith Johnson and Dan De Luce, FP (Foreign Policy), February 28, 2018,available as https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/28/busting-north-k oreas-sanctions-evading-fleet-ofac-treasury-shipping/, suggests that the DPRK has"as many as 240 merchant ships in its fleet", and the Wik ipedia article "List of North Korean merchant ships", which states that the list is incomplete, lists 122 ships with a gross
tonnage of "420,000 grt" (Wik ipedia article dated August, 2018, and available as https://en.wik ipedia.org/wik i/List_of_North_Korean_merchant_ships).
If the Wik ipedia list is representative of the average weight per vessel in the overall DPRK fleet, and the Foreign Policy estimate of the number of vessels iscorrect, it suggests that there are on the order of 800,000 to one million gross registered tonnes of vessels in the DPRK fleet.
14 A Radio Free Asia article entitled "Charcoal-powered Vehicles Stage a Comeback in North Korea", dated 2016-12-09, reported by Jieun Kim for , translated by Soo Min Jo,
written in English by Roseanne Gerin, and available as https://www.rfa.org/english/news/k orea/charcoal-powered-vehicles-mak e-a-comeback -in-north-k orea-12092016160533.html,
describes the resurgent use of "charcoal" fueled truck s in particularly rural parts of the DPRK, and in the Northeast city of Chongjin, for transport servirces of all k inds,
including transport for hire. The article notes the use of these gasifier truck s (which we assume may be actually be using charcoal, wood, crop waste, and/or waste oil fuelsin an on-truck gasifiers, has increased in recent years in some locales due to fuel restrictions, possibly due to sanctions. 1, 2.5, and 15, and 20-tonne truck models have been
seen using the technology, but it appears that the 2.5-tonne, DPRK-made Seung-ri 58 (Victory 58) model is most frequently seen fueled by gasifiers. The article also notesthat around 70 percent of gasifier-driven truck s (presumably in the specific area described) are from rural military units.

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15 The DPRK is at the beginning of a transition to electricity use in personal transportation. Over 100,000 of what appear to be electric scooters(see note 7, under motorcycles) were imported in 2017 alone, as well as a few other electric vehicles. To estimate the electricity use of thesevehicles, for scooters, we start with an estimate from an Indian case study that specify a battery pack of about
2.4 kWh for a range of about100
k m (Shashank Sripad, Tarun Mehta, Anil Srivastava, and Venk atasubramanian Viswanathan (2019), "The Future of Vehicle Electrification in IndiaMay Ride on Two Wheels",
ACS Energy Lett .2019, 4, 2691−2694, available as https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsenergylett.9b02103), although this may apply mostly to a larger
and more expensive scooter than has been on average purchased in the DPRK. The implied energy intensity for this example scooter is
41.67 km/kWh.
A product available on Alibaba, https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2019-New-Foldable-8-inch-250w_62417306677.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.129.7af41d3fZXerUK,
described as "2019 New Foldable 8 inch 250w 500w Kick Scooter Folding Electric Scooters with Seat", suggests that it has a range of
45 km for a
version with a battery capacity of
10.4 Amp-hours at
36 volts, or
0.3744 kWh, an energy intensity of
120.19 km/kWh.
Another, even lighter example, the foldable stand-up scooter "2019 iEZway Alibaba portable lightweight m365 scooter elctrico electric k ick scooter electric",
at https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2019-iEZway-Alibaba-portable-lightweight-m365_62390620803.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.57.7af41d3fZXerUK,
is described at having a range of
30 km, and also has a battery capacity of
10.4 Amp-hours at
36 volts, or
0.3744 kWh, an energy intensity of
80.13 km/kWh.
The Comtrade data on scooter exports to the DPRK from China in category HS 871160, and in common with exports in this category from China to other nations,tend to show, where both shipment weight and number of items are reported, a weight per scooter that is on the order of 5 k g or less, which is uniformly substantiallyless than the 9 or more k g that these scooters are listed on Alibaba. Why this difference exists is unclear, although it could be that the scooter and its battery aresomehow accounted for separately in the customs statistics. For the moment we assume an energy intensity for and average DPRK electric scooter/motorcycle/bicycleof approximately
80 km/kWh. We assume that the average DPRK electric scooter (or other electric two-wheeler) is used
an average of approximately
10 km per day (less than in Indian cities in the reference above, but both cities and scooters are smaller in the DPRK),
meaning a use of3650 km per year, and an average energy use of
45.63 kWh per scooter per year. By way of comparison thiswould be about
84% of the charge provided by a
60 watt solar panel located on a surface with fairly good solar access.
We assume charging at
90% efficiency (see, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery).
16 The DPRK has also in recent years imported a very few larger electric vehicles. In the years before 2016 and 2018, these appear to have been smaller electric vehicles
with costs of about $4000 to $7000 each and weights of several hundred k g each, suggesting that they are specialty vehicles. In 2016 and 2017 Comtrade statistics
show a total of 30 vehicles imported, costing about $20,000 to $30,000 each, and weighing an average of about 1800 k g (for 2016, when weight was provided in the statistics),
suggesting that these were on average full-sized cars. We assume the following, based on data for assumedly similar vehicles from Alibaba:Years

All except
2016/20172016/2017

Annual km
traveled/veh

km/kWh4000

Notes
Distance traveled is an assumption. Examples may include
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/60V-4-0KW-2-seatsmall_60663986851.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.682d1bd6i9za4U,
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/small-electric-car-with-longdriving_60839296446.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.682d1bd6cQRluF,
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Chinese-factory-price-semi-automaticadult_62138974081.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.682d1bd6cQRluF,
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2019-New-Automatic-mini-electric25.43 car_60830639059.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.2c497ba1n0YiZY.

15000

Distance travelled is an assumption. Examples include
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/electric-car-import-high-speedelectric_60869048896.html?spm=a2700.wholesale.deiletai6.9.525e7e14xe5WNo,
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Lithium-Battery-Cheap-Prices-ElectricCar_62018424249.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.2c497ba1n0YiZY, andhttps://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2019-4wheel-new-energy-Chinaelectric_62102412059.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.15c7200foFt5oM. Thesecan be compared the the (similar weight but more powerful) Tesla Model 3 at a8.95 reported 6.25 km/kWh (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3).

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17 There is no evidence to date that the DPRK has imported electric truck s, but it is possible that they could be used in the future.
6 miles per gallon (see, forBy way of comparison, a standard diesel semi-truck uses an average ofexample, https://www.geotab.com/truck -mpg-benchmark /), while, for example, the Tesla semi-truck is advertized to achieve
2 k Wh per mile.(https://www.tesla.com/semi). Putting both values in the same
electricity use of less than
4.50 for Electric, implying that the energy intensity of
15.26 for Diesel, andunits (MJ per k m) yields the following:86%
29.5% that of a diesel truck . Adding a charging efficiency ofan electric truck would be about(see, for example, https://www.veic.org/documents/default-source/resources/reports/an-assessment-of-level-1-and-level-2-electric-vehicle-charging-efficiency.pdf),
34.28% . Of course this is only for large truck s, andyields an overall fuel use ratio for electricity versus diesel ofa number of different comparisons can be made, but we use this as a figure of merit in estimating the relative fuel use of diesel
and gasoline truck s on a per vehicle-k m basis and, for truck s with similar-sized loads, on a per tonne-k m basis. In practice truck fleets in the
DPRK, as in other countries, will include vehicles ranging from semi-tractor-trailers used for long hauls and heavy loads (20-40 tonnes) to small
truck s or three-wheelers carrying loads in the tens of hundreds of k ilograms on short hauls in and around cities.
35.313 MJ/liter, this100 passenger-k m. At
3 liters of fuel per
18 The most modern jet aircraft use
1.06 MJ per passenger-k m, or about one third of average 1990 DPRK levels estimated here.
is about(See, for example, https://en.wik ipedia.org/wik i/Energy_efficiency_in_transport.) Smaller and private-sized aircraft can be more efficient.
19 Although certainly inconsequential to overall water transport energy demand, as a point of interest, an 80-meter ship dating from at least
the year 1997 (its bow structure was revamped sometime between 2002 and 2009) that sports two figure-eight water slides, a 50-meter pool,and a two-story structure lik ely used for entertaining has been mostly dock ed at Wonsan over the last two decades. It is reportedlyused by DPRK leadership when on holidays. See Colin Zwirk o (2020), "Kim Jong Un’s waterslide boat under repair in Wonsan ahead of annual outings"
NK News, dated, May 1, 2020, available as https://www.nk news.org/pro/k im-jong-uns-waterslide-boat-under-repair-in-wonsan-ahead-of-annual-outings/?t=1589307896448.
A Google Earth Pro image of the ship, together with two additional ships with similar color schemes, one a houseboat and one possibly a yacht,
is provided below. The additional ships are visible in images of the site for most of the last 20 years, suggesting they are under the same ownership.
Other ships that look to be yachts are shown in the image as well, and a vessel similar to that at the top of the photo, but with a blue roof or canopy,
also frequently appears in recent images of the same site. Image coordinates are approximately 39.161, 127.665.

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20 Additional evidence of the beginnings of electric vehicle use in the DPRK appears in another article by Colin Zwirk o (2020), "Pyongyang to send
tourist electric carts to delayed Wonsan-Kalma Resort", NK News, dated May 13, 2020, and available ashttps://www.nk news.org/2020/05/pyongyang-to-send-tourist-electric-carts-to-delayed-wonsan-k alma-resort/. Some of the carts shown in the images
below (from the same article) are made in China, but others are reportedly made in the DPRK.

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21 A 2016 article from Reuters, "Power to the people: electric bik es tak e off in North Korea", by James Pearson, dated May 7, 2016, andavailable as https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northk orea-congress-bicycles/power-to-the-people-electric-bik es-tak e-off-in-north-k orea-idUSKCN0XY06I,
provides additional anecdotal evidence of the rise of the use of personal electric vehicles in the DPRK. This article includes a reference to"A bik e made by a Chinese company called Anqi was for sale this week in Pyongyang’s Kwangbok Department Store for 2.62 million won around $330 at the unofficial exchange rate of 8,000 won to the dollar." This price is roughly consistent with the cost per unit for exports from
China to the DPRK as seen in Comtrade data for (probably) electric "motorcycles" in 2016 (see Note 7, above).

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/26/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Estimate of Rural and Urban Households
Total DPRK Population
Military Personnel
Population in Households
Urban HH pop. fract
Rural HH pop. fract
Persons/HH, Urban
Persons/HH, Rural
Number of Urban HH
Number of Rural HH
Coal Use: Urban Households
Fraction Using Coal:
Average HH Dwelling Size
Te coal per HH/yr
GJ/Te Coal
GJ Coal Use/HH
Total Coal Use, Urban HH
District Heat Use: Urban Households
Fraction Using District Heat:
Estimated delivered heat use per household
Implied district heat use, Urban HH
Coal Use: Rural Households
Fraction Using Coal:
Te coal per HH/yr
GJ/Te Coal
GJ Coal Use/HH
Total Coal Use, Rural HH
Electricity Use: Urban Households
Fraction Electrified HH:
MWh per HH/yr
GJ/MWh
GJ Electricity Use/HH
Total Electricity Use, Urban HH
Electricity Use: Rural Households
Fraction Electrified HH:
MWh per HH/yr
GJ/MWh
GJ Electricity Use/HH
Total Electricity Use, Rural HH
Oil Use: Urban Households
Fraction using LPG/Kero:te per HH/yr
GJ/te
GJ LPG/Kero Use/HH
Fraction of Kero/LPG use as Kero
Total LPG/Kero Use, Urban HH
Oil Use: Rural Households
Fraction using Kerosene/LPG:
te per HH/yr
GJ/te
GJ Kerosene/LPG Use/HH
Total Kerosene/LPG Use, Rural HH
Charcoal Use: Urban Households
Fraction Using Charcoal:
Te Charcoal per HH/yr
GJ/Te Charcoal
GJ Charcoal Use/HH
Total Charcoal Use, Urban HH
Charcoal Use: Rural Households
Fraction Using Charcoal:
Te Charcoal per HH/yr
GJ/Te Charcoal
GJ Charcoal Use/HH
Total Charcoal Use, Rural HH
Wood/Biomass Use: Rural Households
Fraction Using Wood/Biomass:
Te Wood/Biomass per HH/yr
GJ/Te Wood/Biomass
GJ Wood/Biomass Use/HH
Total Wood/Biomass Use, Rural HH

2.20E+07
1.20E+06
2.08E+07
60%
40%
4.65
4.65
2,683,871
1,789,247

1

1
1
4
3

91.2%
50 sq. meters
2.20
24
52.74
1.29E+08

5
19
19

GJ/yr

8.755%

See "District_heat" work sheet
in this work book26.106 GJ/yr
7.01E+07 GJ/yr
50%
2.8
24
67.2

6
2, 26
7
6.01E+07

GJ/yr

100%
0.768
3.6
2.764889107.42E+06 GJ/yr

100%
0.512
3.6
1.843289, 24
103.30E+06 GJ/yr

25% (for Cooking)
0.21
44.4
9.324
66.0%
6.26E+06 GJ/yr

11
12
13
Assumption to balance supply and demand

2% (for Cooking)
0.22
44.4
9.60
3.44E+05 GJ/yr

30

16% (for Cooking--specialty foods)
0.15
28.8
4.224
1.81E+06 GJ/yr

1617, 2718

15% (for Cooking--specialty foods)
0.15
28.8
4.32
1.16E+06 GJ/yr

16
29
18

48.00% (all End Uses)
6.6 (Dry basis)
15.25
100.3
8.61E+07 GJ/yr

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Heating and Cooking Fuel Use Data from 2008 DPRK Census
The 2008 DPRK Census (D P R Korea 2008 Population Census National Report, Central Bureau of Statistics,
Pyongyang, DPR Korea, 2009, available as
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/North_Korea/Final%20national%20census%20report.pdf),
includes two tables (52 and 53) on heating and cooking energy use in the DPRK (respectively). This tables suggests that in2008, the fractions of households that used various heating and cooking fuels were as follows:
Type of Dwelling Unit
SingleDetached
Urban-Rural and Type of Heating System
Total
House
Row House
All Areas--Number of Dwellings
5,887,471
1,988,415
2,584,435
Central or local heating system
263,809
1,315
1,894Electronic heating system
40,624
3,018
7,415Electronic heating system with others
55,712
1,841
4,575
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
2,773,238
600,671
1,399,295
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
2,656,866
1,328,122
1,142,644
Others97,22253,44828,612All Areas--Fraction of Total by Heating Type100.00%100.00%100.00%Central or local heating system
4.48%
0.07%
0.07%
Electronic heating system*
0.69%
0.15%
0.29%
Electronic heating system with others*
0.95%
0.09%
0.18%
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
47.10%
30.21%
54.14%
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
45.13%
66.79%
44.21%
Others
1.65%
2.69%
1.11%
Urban--Number of Dwellings
3,579,626
616,955
1,773,414
Central or local heating system
263,055
998
1,632
Electronic heating system*
35,6301,860
5,354Electronic heating system with others*
45,343898
3,781
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
2,300,395
352,867
1,205,421
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
918,583
256,117549,999
Others
16,6204,215
7,227
Urban--Fraction of Total by Heating Type100.00%100.00%100.00%Central or local heating system
7.35%
0.16%
0.09%
Electronic heating system*
1.00%
0.30%
0.30%
Electronic heating system with others*
1.27%
0.15%
0.21%
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
64.26%
57.19%
67.97%
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
25.66%
41.51%
31.01%
Others
0.46%
0.68%
0.41%
Rural--Number of Dwellings
2,307,845
1,371,460
811,021
Central or local heating system
754
317
262
Electronic heating system*
4,994
1,158
2,061
Electronic heating system with others*
10,369943
794
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
472,843
247,804
193,874
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
1,738,283
1,072,005
592,645
Others80,602
49,233
21,385
Rural--Fraction of Total by Heating Type100.00%100.00%100.00%Central or local heating system
0.03%
0.02%
0.03%
Electronic heating system*
0.22%
0.08%
0.25%
Electronic heating system with others*
0.45%
0.07%
0.10%
Coal boiler or Briquette hole in the dwelling unit
20.49%
18.07%
23.90%
Wood hole in the dwelling unit
75.32%
78.17%
73.07%
Others
3.49%
3.59%
2.64%
*Note: "Electronic" probably means "Electrical", likely mostly portable or fixed resistance heating devices.
Type of Cooking Fuel
Total
Total (all of DPRK)
5,887,471
Electricity
79,057
Gas [likely almost all LPG]
167,462
Petroleum
103,091
Coal
2,714,511
Wood
2,758,400
Others64,950Fraction of Cooking Fuel by Types
Total (all of DPRK)
100.00%Electricity
1.34%
Gas [likely almost all LPG]
2.84%
Petroleum
1.75%
Coal
46.11%
Wood
46.85%
Others
1.10%
Type of Cooking Fuel
Total for Pyongyang only
813,769
Electricity
52,470Gas [likely almost all LPG]
160,873
Petroleum
99,646
Coal
458,212Wood
38,312Others4,256
Fraction of DPRK Households using Cooking Fuel that are in Pyongyang
Total for Pyongyang only
13.82%
Electricity
66.37%Gas [likely almost all LPG]
96.07%Petroleum
96.66%
Coal
16.88%
Wood
1.39%
Others
6.55%

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Urban
3,579,626
65,814
157,228
90,9272,271,128
984,407
10,122Rural
2,307,845
13,243
10,234
12,164443,383
1,773,993
54,828100.00%
1.84%
4.39%
2.54%
63.45%
27.50%
0.28%

100.00%
0.57%
0.44%
0.53%
19.21%
76.87%
2.38%

703,910
46,592
153,605
88,832397,766
16,936
179

109,859
5,878
7,268
10,81460,446
21,376
4,077

19.66%
70.79%
97.70%
97.70%
17.51%
1.72%
1.77%

4.76%
44.39%
71.02%
88.90%
13.63%
1.20%
7.44%

Apartment
Building
1,261,709
258,942
29,495
49,115757,398
157,9128,847
100.00%20.52%
2.34%
3.89%
60.03%
12.52%
0.70%
1,164,767
258,769
27,82340,523729,042
104,366
4,244
100.00%22.22%
2.39%
3.48%
62.59%
8.96%
0.36%
96,942
173
1,672
8,592
28,35653,546
4,603
100.00%
0.18%
1.72%
8.86%
29.25%
55.24%
4.75%

Others52,912
1,658
696
181
15,87428,1886,315
100.00%
3.13%
1.32%
0.34%
30.00%
53.27%
11.93%
24,490
1,656
593
141
13,0658,101934
100.00%
6.76%
2.42%
0.58%
53.35%
33.08%
3.81%
28,422
2
103
40
2,809
20,0875,381
100.00%
0.01%
0.36%
0.14%
9.88%
70.67%
18.93%Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 THROUGH 2010, AND 2014 THROUGH 2018 ENERGY USE IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Growth in total number of households

Implied population (million)
Estimated population not in households
Estimated Persons per Household
Urban
Rural
Fraction of Households as:
Urban
Rural
Number of Households
Urban
Rural
TOTAL

Implied population (million)
Estimated population not in households
Estimated Persons per Household
Urban
Rural
Fraction of Households as:
Urban
Rural
Number of Households
Urban
Rural
TOTAL
Fraction of Households using Coal Cooking/Heat
Urban(See Note 37)
Rural(See Note 37)
Urban
Rural
Coal Use per Household relative to 1990:
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural

(See Note 39)(See Note 39)(See Note 38)(See Note 38)(See Note 39)(See Note 39)

Fraction of Urban Households Using District Heating

0.079% /yr (1990 to 2000 Estimate)1.021% /yr 2000-2008 (average based on 2008 Census
0.536% /yr after 2008 through 2010
0.500% /yr after 2010 through 2014
0.390% /yr after 2014 through 2020
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2.210E+07 2.218E+07 2.333E+07 2.405E+07 2.418E+07 2.431E+07
1.106E+06 1.044E+06 9.655E+05 9.186E+05 9.030E+05 8.874E+05

20
22
22
22

4.400
4.425

4.234
4.274

4.026
4.086

3.901
3.974

3.859
3.936

3.817
3.899

21
21

60.27%
39.73%

60.44%
39.56%

60.67%
39.33%

60.80%
39.20%

60.85%
39.15%

60.89%
39.11%

21
21

2,869,730
1,891,971
4,761,701

3,005,533
1,966,822
4,972,355

3,350,571
2,172,292
5,522,864

3,579,626
2,307,845
5,887,471

3,641,784
2,343,540
5,985,324

3,705,382
2,380,017
6,085,400

2014
2.480E+07
8.248E+05

2015
2.490E+07
8.092E+05

2016
2017
2.499E+07 2.509E+07
7.936E+05 7.779E+05

3.651
3.748

3.609
3.711

3.568
3.673

3.526
3.636

3.484
3.598

3.443
3.560

3.401
3.523

61.07%
38.93%

61.11%
38.89%

61.16%
38.84%

61.20%
38.80%

61.25%
38.75%

61.29%
38.71%

61.33%
38.67%

3,969,193
2,530,472
6,499,665

4,034,548
2,567,328
6,601,876

4,101,450
2,605,019
6,706,469

4,169,954
2,643,573
6,813,527

4,237,400
2,681,301
6,918,702

4,306,494
2,719,918
7,026,412

4,377,292
2,759,454
7,136,746

1996
81.7%
38.00%
2014
67.1%
22.00%

2000
77.0%
33.00%
2015
68.2%
24.00%

2005
72.4%
26.00%
2016
69.2%
26.00%

2008
64.8%
18.76%
2017
72.3%
31.00%

2009
64.9%
18.76%
2018
73.4%
32.00%

2010
65.0%
18.76%
2019
73.5%
32.00%

2020
73.6%
32.00%

1996
75%
60%
2014
52%
47%

2000
60%
50%
2015
54%
49%

2005
53%
45%
2016
56%
51%

2008
50%
45%
2017
60%
55%

2009
50%
45%
2018
63%
58%

2010
50%
45%
2019
63%
58%

1996
8.29%
2014
6.91%

2000
7.99%
2015
6.83%

2005
7.60%
2016
6.75%

2008
7.37%
2017
6.68%

2009
7.29%
2018
6.60%

2010
7.22%
2019
6.52%

A1- 37820182019
2.519E+07 2.529E+07
7.779E+05 7.779E+05

2020
2.539E+07
7.779E+05

2020
63%
58%

2020
6.45%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
1996
8.29%
2014
6.91%

2000
7.99%
2015
6.83%

2005
7.60%
2016
6.75%

2008
7.37%
2017
6.68%

2009
7.29%
2018
6.60%

2010
7.22%
2019
6.52%

2020
6.45%

1996
59.05%
48.0%
2014
25.87%
7.0%

2000
29.14%
12.0%
2015
27.00%
7.0%

2005
36.73%
12.2%
2016
27.97%
7.0%

2008
40.92%
14.7%
2017
27.86%
7.0%

2009
35.00%
12.0%
2018
29.71%
7.2%

2010
32.86%
11.0%
2019
27.78%
7.0%

2020
47.89%
12.0%

1996
453.50245.762014
198.6835.84

2000
223.7661.44
2015
207.3635.84

2005
282.0962.46
2016
214.8135.84

2008
314.2775.26
2017
213.9635.84

2009
268.8061.44
2018228.1736.86

2010
252.3656.32
2019
213.3535.84

2020
367.80
61.44

1996
10%
60%
2014
26.00%
76.00%

2000
15%
65%
2015
25.00%
74.00%

2005
20%
72%
2016
24.00%
72.00%

2008
27.78%
79.244%2017
21.00%
67.00%

2009
27.78%
79.24%
2018
20.00%
66.00%

2010
27.78%
79.24%
2019
20.00%
66.00%

2020
20.00% See Note 39
66.00% See Note 39(See Note 39)(See Note 39)

1996
100%
90%
2014
63%
63%

2000
80%
80%
2015
62%
62%

2005
70%
70%
2016
61%
61%

2008
65%
65%
2017
55%
55%

2009
65%
65%
2018
52%
53%

2010
65%
65%
2019
52%
53%

(See Note 40)(See Note 40)

1996
75%
75%
2014
46%
46%

2000
55%
55%
2015
47%
47%

2005
50%
50%
2016
48%
48%

2008
45%
45%
2017
47%
47%

2009
45%
45%
2018
47%
47%

2010
45%
45%
2019
47%
47%

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

13.0%
1.5%

12.0%
1.5%

9.0%
1.2%

6.93%
0.971%

6.93%
0.971%

7.02%
1.020%

47.4%
26.1%
50.0%
90.0%
2014

57.2%
17.9%
55%
54%
2015

71.7%
40.0%
61.0%
67.0%
2016

82.8%
36.6%
85.6%
54.3%
2017

65.8%
36.6%
64.9%
54.3%
2018

78.1%
36.9%
75.9%
53.0%
2019

8.60%
1.20%

9.00%
1.40%

8.90%
1.43%

9.40%
1.56%

9.50%
1.56%

9.60%
1.56%

78.2%
33.8%
75.9%
53.0%

79.3%
33.3%
75.9%
56.2%

79.4%
21.2%
75.9%
35.0%

82.4%
8.8%
77.4%
18.0%

78.6%
7.0%
74.0%
18.0%

79.8%
6.0%
75.0%
18.0%

Fraction of Urban Households Using District Heating

Electricity and Heat Use per HH relative to 1990:
Urban(See Notes 23, 31, 32)
Rural(See Notes 24, 31)
Urban
Rural

(See Notes 23, 31, 32)(See Notes 24, 31)

Implied Electricity Use per Household (kWh)
1990
Urban
Rural

768
512

Urban
Rural

Fraction of Households using Wood/Biomass Heat
Urban
(See Note 34)
Rural(See Note 34)
Urban
Rural

(See Note 39)(See Note 39)

Wood/Biomass Use per Household rel. to 1990:
Urban(See Note 35)
Rural(See Note 36)
Urban
Rural
Charcoal Use per Household rel. to 1990:
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural

Fraction of Households using Kero/LPG for cooking
Urban
Rural
Kero/LPG Use per Household rel. to 1990:
Urban---fraction of Urban use as Kero
Rural
(See Note 25)---fraction of Rural use as Kero
Fraction of Households using Kero/LPG for cooking
Urban
Rural
Kero/LPG Use per Household rel. to 1990:
Urban---fraction of Urban use as Kero
Rural
(See Note 25)---fraction of Rural use as Kero

7.20%
1.00%
75.2%
34.1%
75.2%
53.0%

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2020
52%
53%

2020
47%
47%

33
33

33
33
2020
33
33

33
33

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 from document in authors' files [HT1].
2 A document in authors' files [FC1] gives figures for coal use of 8 and 9.2 tonnes of coal per rural
household in two areas of the DPRK. Based on other documents and the observations of visitor to the DPRK,
these figures either represent very high-use areas, or are inaccurate, but do not seem to be consistent withaverage figures for rural coal consumption.
3 Value for Ongjin area (southern DPRK) from document in authors' files [FC1].
Value is similar to estimates given for rural areas in the central and northern
regions of DPRK.
4 Assumed same as rural value.
5 Assumes all urban households, most in multi-unit concrete buildings, use coal for space heating,
except for those that use district heat for space and water heating. See "District_heat" work sheet.
Urban households also, except in Pyongyang, use coal for cook ing.
From document in authors' files [R1]. This assumes that wood and biomass use in urban households in 1990,
with the exception of charcoal, was negligible, as coal supplies were generally sufficient in urban areas.
6 Fractions cited for three different areas of DPRK, from document in authors' files, vary from 8 to 50% coal use.
Other observers of the DPRK situation suggest that the fraction of coal use in rural households as of 1990
or so was higher, perhaps 60%. We use 50% as an estimated national average.
7 From document in authors' files [FC1]. This value may be somewhat high.
8 Document in authors' files [HT1, p. 14], says "government reportsthat 100 percent of homes and industry are electrified".
9 Estimated based on 1.6X (rural) and 2.4X (urban) 1975 value for per household consumption of electricity in
the Republic of Korea, as derived from pp. 121, 90, and 102 of "The Electric Future of Korea" East-WestCenter, September, 1983. At these levels, total sectoral energy use is approximately 10%
of total national electricity consumption, as suggested in UNDP "Project of the Government of DPRK:Electric Power Management System".
10 Unit conversion (3600 k J/k Wh), no generation losses included.
11 From document in authors' files [FA1]. This sourcenotes that cook ing in (apparently Pyongyang) is by LPG or Kerosene stoves. Figure shown assumes thatthat petroleum-based fuels are rarely used outside Pyongyang, and that the 1990 population of Pyongyang
is approximately 3.2 million (Microsoft Encarta lists a 1984 estimate of 2.64 million,
Korea Foreign Trade Association lists 3.288 million for 1990)).
12 Estimated assuming petroleum product stoves have on average 50 percent of the energy intensity of wood stoves,and that wood use for cook ing is approximately 19.2 GJ/HH-yr (estimate from Kumgang area, as given infrom document in authors' files [FC1].
13 Rough ave. assuming fuel is 50% LPG (at approx. 45.5 GJ/te) and 50% Kerosene (at approx. 43.3 GJ/te)
14 Original value (earlier versions of analysis) based on est. (13.7 te/HH-yr) from Kumgang area, as given
in document in authors' files [FC1].
15 Based on average of values for wood (16 MJ/dry k g) and crop residues (14.5 MJ/k g), source as in 14)

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16 Rough estimates to yield 1990 charcoal consumtion approximately equal to wood charcoal produciton as described in
UN FAO statistics (see Note 7 in "Biomass" work sheet in this work book ). Post-1990 UN FAO estimatesof charcoal production were not used to estimate charcoal use after 1990 because the UN FAO estimates appear
to just apply a constant growth rate every year, and thus may not reflect actual DPRK conditions.
17 Originally assumed heat energy requirements as for wood-fired rural cook ing, but assumed fuel input per unit heat
supplied to the cook ing vessel was two-thirds that for wood stoves (original value 0.44 tonnes/HH-yr).
Assumption has changed based on input from observers--see note 27.
18 Based on value used in LEAP (SEI-B) default data set (which is based on international sources)
19 Based on Chinese figure of 30 k gce/sq.m.-yr for centrally-heated residential buildings, and a rough averagedwelling size of 50 sq. meters (from in-country observations by visitors to DPRK).
An alternative "typical" dwelling size estimate of 120 sq. meters (from document in authors' files [FA1].
would seem to be large based on Chinese figures, which showless than 10 square meters/person ("Energy Use and Conservation in
China's Residential and Commercial Sectors: Patterns, Problems, and Prospects", by Feng Liu, LBL,
March, 1993.). Per-unit floor area figure from China increased by 20 percent to account for
more severe weather, on average, in DPRK.
20 US Central Intelligence Agency, "Korea, North". CIA Factbook , 2001 (World Wide Web Version).
USCIA, Washington, D.C., USA. 2001, http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook /geos/k n.html
listed a 2001 estimated growth rate of 1.22 %/yr and a total population of just under 22 million. The USDOE
Energy Information Administration lists a year 2000 population of 21.7 million in its North Korea Country Analysis Brief(www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/nk orea.html, visited 5/2002). A file of "DPRK Energy Data" provided to
Nautilus by the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI, 2002) suggested a year-2000 population of
22.175 million and a growth rate of 0.4 percent annually (with the growth rate decreasing substantially between
1990 and 2000), but uses a year-2000 base population of 20.221 million for the DPRK. While recognizing
the extreme difficulty in estimating DPRK population, we continue to assume that year 1990 population was
22 million (as official estimates suggest) and adopt the figure provided by KEEI as the year 2000 population.
This suggests a very modest increase in population over the decade, which is certainly consistent with food shortages andanecdotal but fairly widespread evidence of lack of proper food rations, as well as medical care, for the DPRK populace,offsetting the impacts of a national government program to increase the population.
21 Based on data in 2008 DPRK Census (see source in Note 22, Table 3), by 2008 there were3,579,626 urban households,
and2,307,845 rural households in the DPRK. This implies an urban population fraction of
60.8% ,
which is slightly higher than the 60 percent reported in 1990. We assume linear growth in the urban household fraction from1990 through 2009. Based on figures for 2008 populations in households of
13,962,973 in urban households, and9,170,719 in rural households, this implies average persons per household in 2008 of
3.90 in urban areas, and3.97 in rural areas. In both urban and rural areas, about two-thirds of households
are categorized as extended households (including relatives other than a nuclear family). Note that populations in households do
not include individuals in institutions (that is, includes private households only), which are largely soldiers (mostly male) in the military.
We assume linear trends in household size from 1990 through 2009.
There have been reports of forced migration from the cities to the rural areas, but none have been
confirmed. World Bank projections suggested continued rural-to-urban migration. The overall pattern of migration
remains undocumented. There is anecdotal evidence that residents of cities in the North of the DPRK, for example,
are leaving for the countryside where they can forage, rather than remain in cities where food distribution is sporadic at best.
We assume that there has been at least a modest net migration from urban to rural areas in some places, but that thistrend has been offset by a slow migration to the cities (which in any case has been much slower than in the Republic of Korea).

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22 This population growth assumption represents an attempt on our part to tak e into account the effects ofthe food shortages of the 1990s on future population growth in the DPRK, but also assumes that the results of the UN-directed 2008 DPRK Census
are accurate, at a total population of
24,052,231 ( D P R Korea 2008 Population Census National Report , Central Bureau of
Statistics Pyongyang, DPR Korea, 2009, available as
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/North_Korea/Final%20national%20census%20report.pdf).
Historical (pre-1990) population growth rates had been near 2 percent annually.
The 2008 Census document lists total births in the 12 months prior to the census as345,630 (Table 16), andtotal deaths in the same period as
216,616 . These figures imply a rate of population increase as of 2008 of
0.536% annually.
A compilation of DPRK statistics by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD),
available as http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/country/statistics/tags/dprk orea, estimates
population growth at a slightly lower
0.50% annually as of 2014. We use this value as the estimated growth rate forpopulation between 2010 and 2014.
Population data from the United Nations (downloaded 1/28/2020 from https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
for the years 204 through 2020 are as follows:
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

25 05825 18425 30825 43025 55025 66625 779These data imply average population growth from 2014 through 2020 of

0.39% annually, which we take as the groth rate from 2014 through 2017.

23 Visitors to the DPRK in 2000 described electricity in Pyongyang as being generally available, but electricity in at least
major portions of other cities being largely unavailable. Based on Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency(KOTRA) data (from http://www.k otra.or.k r/main/info/nk /eng/main.php3, visited 6/3/02) that lists the
population of Pyongyang as
3.4 million, assuming, based roughly on a record ofof electrical outlet voltage collected in Pyongyang and covering most of 2000, that Pyongyang suffered fromblack outs for about
30% of 2000, and further assuming that residents of cities other than Pyongyang
had power only
14% of the time, we estimate that the average consumption of power per
household was about
29% of that in 1990.
24 Nautilus Institute's rural energy survey in the village of Unhari, (as reported on in "A RURAL ENERGYSURVEY IN UNHARI VILLAGE, THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK):METHODS, RESULTS, AND IMPLICATIONS", Asian Perspectives special issue, 2002. ), suggested
an annual average usage of 390 k Wh per household per year, fairly close to the 1990 value estimated above.
During our mission to Unhari in 2000, we determined that householders virtually never had electric power
available in their homes during the day, especially in the winter months. As Unhari is relatively close to
Pyongyang, it is our expectation that the situation there is lik ely, if anything, to be better than that in otherrural areas. We therefore assume that the lack of availability of power limited rural residents to
10% of 1990 levels of electricity consumption in the year 2000.

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25 Oil use in rural households increased for 2000 relative to 1996 to reflect more use of k erosene and diesel oil for
lighting during the bulk of the year, when electricity for lighting is unavailable. On a national basis, theper-household rural oil consumption estimate shown here is approximately the same as that estimated for
Unhari village (see reference in Note 24) based on a survey done in 1998. Other areas probably had less accessto fuel supplies than Unhari, on average, but rural electricity availability in 2000 was worse than in 1998.
26 In earlier versions of this analysis, a much higher estimate of coal use per household (9 tonnes) was used. The
results of the Nautilus Unhari survey, and input from recent DPRK visitors, have suggested that a substantial
revision to this assumption is in order. Therefore, an average of 2.8 tonnes coal/HH year is assumed for households
in rural areas in 1990 using coal (exclusively or nearly so) for cook ing and heating. This is consistent with estimatesfrom other documents in the authors files, and is consistent with the 2 tonnes/yr finding in (relatively temperate) Unhari, giventhat the Unhari survey was tak en in 1998/2000, when supplies were not as adequate as in 1990 (by residents' estimation).
27 Initial assumption (in previous versions of analysis) for charcoal use in urban households reduced based on input
from residents and recent visitors to the DPRK that charcoal use in urban households is not routine.
28 Initial assumption (in previous versions of analysis) for wood/biomass use in rural households reduced based on input
from recent visitors and consideration of results of Unhari survey suggesting that coal use per household is lower thanpreviously thought (see note 26 in this work sheet). The revised figure shown is calculated assuming that wood/biomassburns approximately
67% as efficiently as coal, and tak es into account the difference between theenergy contents of coal and biomass fuels. By way of comparison, annual estimates of per-household woood/biomass
fuel use in rural households vary from 9 to 13 or so tonnes per HH year, but in many cases the mass basis(wet or dry) of the biomass input was not specified (document in author's files).
29 Assumed approximately the same as in urban households.
30 Assumed, based on input from observers, to be quite low, even in 1990.
31 Observers suggest that electricity supplies to residences and public/commercial buildings in the DPRK have improved
somewhat by 2005, relative to 2000, though improvements, and the number of hours per day that residents can
expect to have electricity services, varied substantially by region of the country, by proximity to power plants, andby time of year (allocation of electricity varies in seasons when agricultural uses have priority, and availability ofelectricity varies seasonally as water flows affect hydroelectric output). Observers have reported levelsof electricity availability ranging from an hour or two per day (intermittently) to nearly 24 hours per day.
32 Availability of heat is assumed to be link ed to availability of electricity for urban homes. Although some heat is generated
in central district-heat-only boilers, we assume that those plants would be subject to most of the same fuel availability
and maintenance issues affecting electricity generation (including combined heat and power) plants.
33 2008 and 2009 values based on data in 2008 DPRK Census (see tables from census above). We assume that households
who had typically used liquid petroleum fuels (k erosene or diesel fuel) or LPG for cook ing were forced to either cut back on
their usage due to lowered oil products availability after 1990, or switch to other cook ing fuels (coal or wood) altogether. Thistransition is modeled as a reduction to near 2008 fractions of households using these fuels by 2000. Over time, moreof the total petroleum products used for cook ing are assumed to be LPG, converging on 2008 Census figures by 2008.
34 2008 and 2009 values based on data in 2008 DPRK Census (see tables from census above). We assume that urban households
used very little wood fuel as of 1990, but that as coal became more scarce, more household started using it, thus values shownfor 1996 through 2005 are rough interpolations to the 2008 census value. For rural households, we assume based on literaturesources that 48 percent of rural households used wood or other forms of biomass for cook ing and heating as of 1990, andthat value increased toward 2008 values over time as coal scarcity increased (and or coal became unaffordable).
For 2008, we have used census-derived values for the fraction of wood and "other" (assumed to be crop waste or other biomass)used for cook ing, but the fraction of heating reported by the 2008 Census as being done with wood and other fuels is within a
few percent of the cook ing fractions in both the urban and rural subsectors.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
35 As we assume that there was little use of wood and biomass fuels for cook ing and heating in urban households in 1990, thefractions of household usage shown here are the equivalent of the 1990 per-household use of coal per urban household,measured on an energy content basis, and roughly factoring in the lower efficiency of biomass fuel use relative to coal.
36 We assume that the usage of wood fuel per rural household has decresased somewhat over time due to a combination of
scarcity of fuel, and possibly a reduction, on average, in the amount of food to be cook ed.
37 Fraction of urban and rural households using coal for cook ing and heating is adjusted downward over time to account for theincreased in wood use, though in practice (though not directly reflected in Census statistics), many households probably usedboth fuels depending on availability and cost.
38 The amount of coal used for cook ing and heating per household primarily using coal is assume to have trended downward over time
due to lower availability.
39 The amount of coal used for cook ing and heating per household primarily using coal afer 2014 is assumed to trend upward slightly over time
due to higher availability and lower domestic prices, particularly in 2017 and 2018 following sanctions. Similarly, the fractionof households using biomass for heat, and the amount of biomass used for heat in those households, is assumed to have trended downward
after 2010 due to an improved economy and better availability of coal.
40 Charcoal use (for specialty cook ing) is assumed to rise slightly after 2010 with the improved economy before falling in 2017 due to the impact of sanctions
on incomes, as well as reduced food production (with a presumed impact on livestock feed, and thus meat availability).
41

Population calculated from above (UN statistics, note 22) by year (million).

Index
relative to
1990
Population

Index
relative to
1990
Population

Index
relative to
1990
Population

42

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

1.000022

1.000822.02

1.001622.03

1.002422.05

1.003222.07

1.004022.09

1.004822.10

1.005622.12

1.006422.14

1.007222.16

1.0080
22.18

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1.018222.40

1.028622.63

1.039122.86

1.049823.09

1.060523.33

1.071323.57

1.082223.81

1.093324.05

1.099224.18

1.1050
24.31

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1.110624.43

1.116124.55

1.121724.68

1.127324.80

1.131724.90

1.136124.99

1.140625.09

1.145025.19

1.149525.29

1.1539
25.39

Historical and projected fraction of population in the DPRK as Urban from United Nations World Urbanization Prospects are as follows. File
WUP2018-F02-Proportion_Urban.xls, "Percentage of Population at Mid-Year Residing in Urban Areas by region, subegion and country, 1950-2050"
downloaded 3-18-20 from https://population.un.org/wup/Download/.
Percentage of Population at Mid-Year Residing in Urban Areas, 1950-2050
1950
1955
1960
1965

Urban
Rural
(calculated)

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

35.5

40.2

45.1

54.2

56.7

56.9

57.6

58.4

59.0

69.0

64.5

59.8

54.9

45.8

43.3

43.1

42.4

41.6

41.0

2000

Urban
Rural
(calculated)

1970

31.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

59.4

59.8

60.4

61.3

62.4

63.8

65.6

67.6

69.8

72.0

74.2

40.6

40.2

39.6

38.7

37.6

36.2

34.4

32.4

30.2

28.0

25.8

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/26/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Oil Use in Agricultural Sector
Total Area of Field Crops:
Average Diesel use
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Annual Oil Use: Agric. Machinery
Electricity Use in Agricultural Fields
Total Area of All Crops:
Average electricity use
Conversion Factor
Annual Electricity Use: Agric./Fields
Coal Use: Processing/Other
Area of Rice Cultivation
Total Agr. Coal Use
Annual Processing/Other Coal Use
Oil Use: Processing/Other
Total Agr. Oil Use
Annual Oil Use in Agric. Machinery
Annual Net Oil Use, Processing/Other
Electricity Use: Processing/Other
Total Agr. Electricity Use
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Annual Electricity Use: Agric./Fields
Annual Net Elect Use, Processing/Other
Wood/Biomass Use: Processing/Other
Grain straws used in Crop drying
Conversion Factor
Grain brans used in crop drying
Conversion Factor
Wood used in Agricultural Sector
Conversion Factor
Total Annual Wood/Biomass Use:

1.70E+06 ha
41 l/ha-yr
1149 l/te
43.17888 GJ/te
2.62E+06 GJ

12

2.00E+06 ha
126 kWh/ha-yr
0.0036 GJ/kWh
9.07E+05 GJ

3,42

6.50E+05
1.50E+01 GJ/ha rice
9.75E+06 GJ

477.70E+00 GJ/ha rice-yr
2.62E+06 GJ
2.39E+06 GJ

7

4.44E+02 kgce/ha rice-yr
4.04E+02 kgce/MWhe
3.60E+00 GJ/MWHe
9.07E+05 GJ
1.66E+06 GJ

7

3.00E+06 te/yr
14.5 GJ/te
1.00E+05 te/yr
14.5 GJ/te
0
16 GJ/te
4.495E+07 GJ

5
6
5
6

9

No data6

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND HISTORICAL ENERGY USE IN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR(Notes 10, 15)
1996
2000
2005
2008
Area Harvested Relative to 1990:
87.86%
77.37%
86.17%
82.25%
Use of Tractors, etc. Relative to 1990:
30%
25%
27%
24%
Use of Electricity in Fields Relative to 1990:
90%
75%
65%
52.5%
Coal Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
37.15%
37.48%
62.873%63.52%
Oil Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
30.0%
25.0%
27.0%
25%
Elect. Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
37.15%
35.13%
62.87%
63.52%
Biomass Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990: 37.15%
42.16%
66.57%
67.25%

Area Harvested Relative to 1990:
Use of Tractors, etc. Relative to 1990:
Use of Electricity in Fields Relative to 1990:
Coal Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
Oil Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
Elect. Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
Biomass Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:

2014
78.60%
25.0%
50%
70.60%
25%
66.44%
74.75%

2015
77.14%
27.0%
51%
74.20%
27%
69.84%
78.57%

2016
76.17%
29.0%
52%
67.38%
29%
63.42%
71.35%

A1- 3862017
70.92%
25.0%
53%
66.16%
25%
62.27%
70.05%

2009
82.39%
24%
48%
60.24%
22%
60.24%
63.79%

2010
82.38%
25.0%
50%
61.09%
25%
61.09%
64.69%

Sources/Notes:
16
8
11
8, 15
8
8, 15
8, 15

2018
68.74%
22.0%
50%
65.20%
22%
61.36%
69.03%

2019
68.74%
22.0%
50%
57.09%
21.5%
53.73%
60.45%

2020
68.74%
22.0%
50%
54.14%
21%
50.95%
57.32%

16
8, 17, 18, 19, 20
11, 188, 15, 21
8, 17, 18, 19, 20
8, 15
8, 15

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Total reported cropped area less fruit orchards (300,000 ha), which are assumed to be relatively lessenergy intensive to operate. From document in authors' files [KJ1, p. 7].
2 P.81: F Liu et al, "An Overview of Energy Supply and Demand in China", LBL, May 1992.
3 Assumption is that most electricity use will be for irrigation.
4 Crop area. From document in authors' files [KJ1, p. 7].
5 From document in authors' files [HT1, p. 10].
6 From document in authors' files [FC1, p. 7]. Air dried wood.
7 Based on 1987 Chinese values. Agricultural coal use from J. Sinton, Ed, "China Energy Databook1992" (Revised June 1993), LBL, page IV-56. Rice area in China from FAO.
8 Intensity of fuels use relative to 1990 values (for example, use of field machinery per hectare).
9 On a per hectare of rice basis, the sum of the "field" and "other" electricity consumption estimates shown here arevery similar to the approximately 3.6 GJ per ha of rice estimated during Nautilus' 1998 and 2000 rural energy
survey in Unhari village, the DPRK, as (as reported in "A RURAL ENERGYSURVEY IN UNHARI VILLAGE, THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK):METHODS, RESULTS, AND IMPLICATIONS", Asian Perspectives special issue, 2002.).
10 Estimates of fuel use in 2005 and 2000 relative to 1990 are subjective, and are based on observations by Nautilus andothers who have visited farms in the DPRK. Typically, supplies of electricity and coal seem to be provided tofarms at a priority to other sectors during the growing and harvest seasons, so supplies of those fuels arebarely sufficient to accomplish the necessary threshing and milling, but motor fuel supplies are considerably
less than in 1990, so that tractors are used only for essential purposes, and much more labor is done by hand.
This is probably even more the case in more remote areas of the country. The lack of spare parts for tractors andtruck s also diminishes demand for motor fuels. Electricity use for agriculture is assumed to be slightly
higher in 2000 than in 1996 because, though availability of electricity for agricultural requirements are similar,
intensity per unit of output is assumed to be higher due to a lack of access to spare parts and a lack of otherfuels for support vehicles (thus decreasing overall efficiency). One observer of DPRK energy use has suggested
that mechanized inputs to agriculture may have fallen by over 85 percent from 1990 to 2005. Other observers reportincreased use of manual and animal labor in the fields, including the transfer of office and factor work ers, students,
others from the cities in 2005 in larger numbers than in previous years to help bring in the harvest. We have looselyinterpreted this anecdotal information to point to a continued decline in diesel fuel for tractors and other farm
implements, with the result being that oil use in agriculture was 20 percent of 1990 levels by 2005.
For related analysis, see also Hugh Bentley, "Trends in the DPRK Agricultural Sector & Implications
for Energy Use",
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). This presentation is available as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/papers/Bentley.ppt.
11 An article in KCNA in English (Pyongyang), dated 14 March, 2005, and entitled "Kaechon-Lak e Thaesong
Waterway Pays Off", suggests that the waterway carried 100 million cubic meters of water over two
years, and displaced more than 500 water pumps that "had to consume more than 60,000 k W of electricity a year to
supply needed water to [the areas served]. Assuming that this note referred to the power input to the displaced
pumps as60 MW, and assuming an annual average capacity factor for those pumps of about
20%
this implies a displacement of
105.12 GWhrs, or
3.78E+05 GJ of electricity, about
42%of estimated field use of electricity in 1990. On this basis we decrease estimated use of electricity in 2005, but
by somewhat less than this estimate, assuming that there may still be additional pumping from the
new aqueduct into the fields, and assuming that the KCNA article may present a somewhat optimistic account of the
impacts of the waterway.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
12 China Customs Statistics reported imports of meat to the DPRK from China (meat imports were 90% pork
by 2005) had increased more than 20-fold (by weight), on average, between 1995-1997 and 2003-2005.
This may be indicative of continued decline in DPRK agricultural production.
Import data as compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
13 China Customs Statistics reported imports of fertilizers to the DPRK from China were
92,494 te in 2003
60,804 te in 2004, and67,838 te in 2005.
95 percent or more of these imports were in the "nitrogeneous fertilizer" category (HS # 3102).
DPRK fertilzer imports from China appear to vary considerably by year, but the average imports for 2003 - 2005
was about five times the average imports in 1995 - 1997. Source as in Note 12, above.
14 China Customs Statistics include reports of the following agricultural exports from the DPRK to China in 2005:
HS # Description
Tonnes12 MISC GRAIN,SEED,FRUIT
20,94808 EDIBLE FRUIT AND NUTS
5,479
78 LEAD
4,666
14 OTHER VEGETABLE
3,903
07 VEGETABLES
1,912
The same compendium also notes exports from the DPRK to China of about 35 million live animals (types not
specfied), up from about 21 million in 2004 and 7.8 million in 2003.
Source as in Note 12, above.
15 Coal and biomass use in crop drying, and electricity used in crop processing, are assumed to be roughly proportional to annual cerealharvests, based on the following output statistics ( see Note 16, final table ):Year
Million tonnes cereal production
1990
6.280
1996
2.593
2000
2.942
2005
4.645
2008
4.693
2009
4.451
2010
4.514
2011
4.691
2012
5.190
2013
5.193
2014
5.216
2015
5.482
2016
4.979
2017
4.888
2018
4.817
2019
4.218
2020
4.000

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Cereals Production in the DPRK in Selected Years
7

Million Tonnes Cereal Production

6

5
4
3
2
1
0
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 389

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Additional data on DPRK grain output from various publications are provided below for reference.
Chart 2 (shown below) in FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE and WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME, SPECIAL REPORT FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTMISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA , dated 16 November 2000.
Page 17 of UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme,
SPECIAL REPORT, FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATICPEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA , dated 30 October 2003, and available as
http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook /agriculture/fao-dprk -30oct.pdf
Randall Ireson, Food Security in North Korea: Designing Realistic Possibilities , dated February 2006, published by the
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, and available as
http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/21046/Ireson_FoodSecurity_2006.pdf. Table 2.

Figures for cereals production in 2008 are quoted in several sources, including S. Haggard and M. Nolan, "The North Korean Food Situation,
Too Early to Break Out the Champagne", Asia Pacific Bulletin , Number 27, February 5, 2009,
available as www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/apb027.pdf.
Figure is roughly consistent with UN FAO statistics shown in Note 16, below, for DPRK agricultural production in 2008.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Figures for cereals production in over time are presented in UN Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Program (2010),
SPECIAL REPORT: FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY
ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA , dated 16 November 2010, and available as
URL http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al968e/al968e00.pdf. Estimates are presented in Figure 1 (see below).

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
In addition, coal, electricity, and biomass use in processing per unit crop harvested were assumed to have decreased somewhat relative to 1990,
due to lack of availability of fuel and other factors, as follows:
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
Coal Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
90%
80%
85%
85%
85%
85%
Elect. Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
90%
75%
85%
85%
85%
85%
Biomass Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
90%
90%
90%
90%
90%
90%

Coal Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
Elect. Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:
Biomass Use, Processing/Other, Rel. to 1990:

2014
85%
80%
90%

2015
85%
80%
90%

2016
85%
80%
90%

A1- 392

2017
85%
80%
90%

2018
85%
80%
90%

2019
85%
80%
90%

2020
85%
80%
90%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
16 Data from FAOSTAT on agricultural production in the DPRK for 2000, 2005, and 2008 (from http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx)
is as follows:2000 Data
Rank

Commodity
1 Vegetables fresh nes
2 Rice, paddy
3 Potatoes
4 Apples
5 Indigenous Pigmeat
6 Tobacco, unmanufactured
7 Beans, dry
8 Maize
9 Hen eggs, in shell
10 Cabbages and other brassicas
11 Indigenous Rabbit Meat
12 Fruit Fresh Nes
13 Soybeans
14 Garlic
15 Indigenous Cattle Meat
16 Peaches and nectarines
17 Pears
18 Indigenous Chicken Meat
19 Sweet potatoes
20 Cow milk, whole, fresh
Sum of Rice and Maize
Unofficial figure
Official data
FAO estimate
Calculated data

*:
[ ]:
F:
Fc:

Production(Int $1000)

Flag

450360315459211506
186693141771114862114142105894
93947
87919
82938
73374
71032
61745
41417
39268
37018
31306
25645
23934

Production(MT)*
2400000*
1690000*
1870000*
650000*140000*63000*
290000*1041000*
110000*630000*53690*
460000*350000
*
80000
*
20025
*
110000*130000*26840*
290000*90000
2731000

Flag
F

F
Fc
F
F
F
F
Fc
F
*
F
Fc
F
F
Fc
*
F

2005 Data
Rank

*:
[ ]:
F:
Fc:

Commodity
1 Rice, paddy
2 Vegetables fresh nes
3 Potatoes
4 Apples
5 Indigenous Pigmeat
6 Maize
7 Indigenous Rabbit Meat
8 Hen eggs, in shell
9 Tobacco, unmanufactured
10 Beans, dry
11 Cabbages and other brassicas
12 Fruit Fresh Nes
13 Garlic
14 Soybeans
15 Indigenous Cattle Meat
16 Peaches and nectarines
17 Indigenous Chicken Meat
18 Pears
19 Sweet potatoes
20 Wheat
Sum of Rice, Maize, and Wheat
Unofficial figure
Official data
FAO estimate
Calculated data

Production(Int $1000)

Flag

486562459742234117
191862170125151455143385119475119238118499
96292
78159
73322
68853
44364
44266
41699
38442
31835
26166

A1- 393

Production(MT)*2583400*
2450000*
2070000*
668000*168000*1630000*
92820*
140000*65400*
300000*690000*490000*95000*
340000*21450*
124000*35750*
135000*360000*1930004406400

Flag
F
F
F
Fc
*
Fc
F
F
F
F
F
F
*
Fc
F
Fc
F
F
*

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
2008 Data
Rank

Commodity

1 Rice, paddy
2 Vegetables fresh nes
3 Apples
4 Indigenous Pigmeat
5 Potatoes
6 Indigenous Rabbit Meat
7 Maize
8 Hen eggs, in shell
9 Beans, dry
10 Tobacco, unmanufactured
11 Cabbages and other brassicas
12 Fruit Fresh Nes
13 Garlic
14 Soybeans
15 Indigenous Cattle Meat
16 Peaches and nectarines
17 Indigenous Chicken Meat
18 Pears
19 Sweet potatoes
20 Cow milk, whole, fresh
Sum of Rice and Maize* : Unofficial figure[ ]:Official data
F : FAO estimate
Fc: Calculated data

Production(Int $1000)

540166422212
182384182277171981140574137195121125118499114862
97688
78159
73322
69942
44985
42838
37208
35595
33610
25530

Flag

Production(MT)*
2862000*
2250000*
635000*180000*1520280*
91000*
1411390*142000*300000*63000*
700000*490000*95000*
345000*21750*
120000*31900*
125000*380070*96000
4273390

Following from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC/visualize, accessed 8/9/2018

A1- 394

Flag
*
F
F
Fc
Fc
F
F
F
F
F
F
*
Fc
F
Fc
F
F

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Data for agricultural production in the DPRK for 2009 and 2010 below from UN FAO,
http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html#VISUALIZE_TOP_20, accessed 8/30/2012.
Top 25 Commodities (2009)
Rank

Production(tonnes)Commodity
Vegetables fresh nes
Rice, paddy
Maize

Production(1000$ Int)

Flag
2452000 F
2336000
1705000

Potatoes
Cabbages and other brassicas
ApplesFruit Fresh Nes
Sweet potatoes
Soybeans
Beans, dry
Wheat
Peaches and nectarines
Pears
Other melons (inc.cantaloupes)
Onions (inc. shallots), green
Watermelons
GarlicPumpkins, squash and gourds
Tobacco, unmanufactured
Cucumbers and gherkins
Onions, dry
Tomatoes
Rye
BarleyMilletSum of Rice and Maize

1560000
751001
719682522283
390000350000335000169000147095137901120000116104115000101347
77785
73000
71620
70209
69466
68799
63000
62000
4041000

Flag
462057 *574736 *
230653 *

F
F
F
*
F
*
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
*
*

20536310676230436418229525921
89420
189786
22324
80081
56378
22091
23693
13101
53343
13639
116272
14220
14746
25672
5364
6760
7875

*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*

Top 25 Commodities (2010)
Rank

Production(tonnes)Commodity

1 Rice, paddy
2 Vegetables fresh nes
3 Potatoes
4 Maize
5 Apples
6 Cabbages and other brassicas
7 Fruit Fresh Nes
8 Sweet potatoes
9 Soybeans
10 Beans, dry
11 Wheat
12 Pears
13 Peaches and nectarines
14 Other melons (inc.cantaloupes)
15 Onions (inc. shallots), green
16 Watermelons
17 Onions, dry
18 Barley
19 Tobacco, unmanufactured
20 Garlic
21 Pumpkins, squash and gourds
22 Millet
23 Rye24 Cucumbers and gherkins
25 Tomatoes
Sum of Rice and Maize

Flag

2426000
2038700 F
1708000
1683000
752300 F
616100 F
548100 F
427000350000 *224300 F
160000 *142800 F
116000 F
88100 F87700 F
86400 F
82700 F
80000 *
78500 F
77000 F
74800 F
71200 F
70000 F
65800 F
64000 F
4109000

A1- 395

Production(1000$ Int)

Flag

597308 *384175 *224847 *226010 *318158 *87585 *
191306 *28380 *
89420 *
123211 *
21800 *
58381 *
63152 *
16218 *
17896 *
9843 *
17370 *
6786 *
125032 *40528 *
13115 *
9043 *
5465 *
13064 *
23652 *Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Production of Crops in 2016 as Reported by FAO (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC)
Product
Unit
Production FAO Note on Data Derivation
Rice, paddy
tonnes2,536,400 Unofficial figure
Maize
tonnes2,195,200 Unofficial figure
Vegetables, fresh nes
tonnes2,188,440 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Potatoestonnes1,698,511 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Applestonnes779,490 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Cabbages and other brassicas
tonnes671,973 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Fruit, fresh nes
tonnes551,047 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Sweet potatoes
tonnes436,873 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Soybeans
tonnes348,452 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Beans, dry
tonnes320,399 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Pears
tonnes146,601 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Peaches and nectarines tonnes
120,473 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Watermelons
tonnes
94,796 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Onions, shallots, green
tonnes90,909 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Melons, other (inc.cantaloupes)
tonnes85,640 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Onions, dry
tonnes
84,839 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Garlictonnes
83,083 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Tobacco, unmanufactured tonnes
82,727 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Pumpkins, squash and gourds
tonnes
77,687 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Millettonnes73,482 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Tomatoestonnes
66,261 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Cucumbers and gherkins tonnes
66,205 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Ryetonnes65,546 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Wheat
tonnes
56,702 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Chillies and peppers, greentonnes
53,397 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Eggplants (aubergines)
tonnes48,051 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Seed cotton
tonnes38,669 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Sorghum
tonnes28,838 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Hemp tow waste
tonnes
14,759 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Chestnut
tonnes12,540 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Oatstonnes
11,539 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Barleytonnes
10,861 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Nuts, nes
tonnes
10,376 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Mushrooms and truffles
tonnes5,868 FAO data based on imputation methodology
Hops
tonnes2,005 FAO data based on imputation methodology

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Following are summary data on DPRK cereals production from UN FAOStat,
http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html#DOWNLOAD, accessed 8/30/2012,
http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QC/E, accessed 1/6/2016,and http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC, accessed 8/9/2018, and used
for the values for 2010 through 2016 for production and all values for area harvested in the table below.
ImpliedAverage
Area
Harvested
Yield (t/ha)
Year
Item
Production Unit
Unit
1990 Cereals,Total
6,280,305 tonnes
1,600,714 ha
3.92
1991 Cereals,Total
8,814,010 tonnes
1,574,272 ha
5.60
1992 Cereals,Total
8,681,000 tonnes
1,552,024 ha
5.59
1993 Cereals,Total
9,137,000 tonnes
1,491,739 ha
6.13
1994 Cereals,Total
7,215,000 tonnes
1,524,740 ha
4.73
1995 Cereals,Total
3,805,000 tonnes
1,517,102 ha
2.51
1996 Cereals,Total
2,592,699 tonnes
1,406,408 ha
1.84
1997 Cereals,Total
2,864,537 tonnes
1,446,929 ha
1.98
1998 Cereals,Total
4,420,150 tonnes
1,425,052 ha
3.101999 Cereals,Total
3,852,000 tonnes
1,348,472 ha
2.86
2000 Cereals,Total
2,942,000 tonnes
1,238,513 ha
2.38
2001 Cereals,Total
3,879,704 tonnes
1,286,500 ha
3.02
2002 Cereals,Total
4,211,000 tonnes
1,319,747 ha
3.19
2003 Cereals,Total
4,393,000 tonnes
1,351,540 ha
3.25
2004 Cereals,Total
4,485,000 tonnes
1,307,668 ha
3.432005 Cereals,Total
4,645,400 tonnes
1,379,280 ha
3.37
2006 Cereals,Total
4,675,500 tonnes
1,319,286 ha
3.542007 Cereals,Total
3,892,500 tonnes
1,332,294 ha
2.92
2008 Cereals,Total
4,693,060 tonnes
1,316,563 ha
3.56
2009 Cereals,Total
4,450,998 tonnes
1,318,854 ha
3.372010 Cereals,Total
4,514,037 tonnes
1,318,741 ha
3.422011 Cereals,Total
4,691,413 tonnes
1,309,000 ha
3.58
2012 Cereals,Total
5,190,105 tonnes
1,324,500 ha
3.92
2013 Cereals,Total
5,192,838 tonnes
1,306,500 ha
3.97
2014 Cereals,Total
5,216,047 tonnes
1,258,179 ha
4.152015 Cereals,Total
5,482,388 tonnes
1,234,809 ha
4.44
2016 Cereals,Total
4,978,568 tonnes
1,219,304 ha
4.08
2017 Cereals,Total
4,888,075 tonnes
1,135,200 ha
4.31
2018 Cereals,Total
4,817,000 tonnes
1,100,400 ha
4.38
2019 Cereals,Total
4,218,000 tonnes
1,093,000 ha
3.862020 Cereals,Total
4,000,000 tonnes
1,093,000 ha
3.66
2017 and 2018/2019 values are estimates derived from the tables below from the sources described in Notes 17 and 21.
2020 is a placeholder estimate. Area for 2019 based on table in source 21 plus an estimated 50,000 ha for early season cereals, as in 2018.

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17 The UN FAO document GIEWS Update:The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Food Supply and
Demand Outlook in 2017/18 (November/October) , dated 9 July 2018, and avaialble as http://www.fao.org/3/ca0363en/CA0363EN.pdf,
citing DPRK government sources, includes the following table describing agricultural sector fuel demand:A1- 398

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
18 The UN Comtrade compilation of trade statistics https://comtrade.un.org/data) shows a large increase in the imports of tractors from
China in recent years, particularly after 2012. The graph below shows statistics for tractor imports from 2000 through 2017(see notes to "Transport_96-on" work sheet for Comtrade data). The increased number of new tractors implies to us that
agriculture in the DPRK was somewhat "re-mechanized"--more of the work done by machines--in 2014 through 2017, relative
to previous years, both as a result of additional available tractors and additional available diesel fuel in those years. Ourasssumptions as to changes in the use of diesel relateive to 1990 reflect those changes. We also assume somewhat better accessto electricity in the farming sector in those years, perhaps partly due to better availability of generators. Our estimates for
agricultural electricity use per unti of crop output are accordingly somewhat higher for 2014-2017 than in previous years.
See also, for example, Eric Talmadge (2014), "North Korean farmers under pressure to feed hungry nation", The Guardian , July 15, 2014,
available as https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/15/north-k orea-farmers-pressure-feed-nation-k im-jong-un.

Tractor Imports from China to DPRK, 2000 - 2017 (number)
3,500

Tractors

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

19 Assumes reduction in agricultural sector oil use in 2017, and additional reductions in 2018, relative to previous years due to tightened supply
as a result of UNSC sanctions.

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20 The UNFAO "GIEWS Country BriefDemocratic People’s Republic of Korea", dated 13-May-2019, andavailable as http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country/PRK/pdf/PRK.pdf, includes the following table suggesting that crop yields production in
the DPRK continued to fall during 2018 by about 12% overall relative to 2017.

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21 The DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) FAO/WFP JOINT RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT , dated May 2019,
and available as http://www.fao.org/3/ca4447EN/ca4447en.pdf, includes the following tables on fuel use and projected 2019 output in the
DPRK agricultural sector.

Summary of Havest Area of Cereals (1000 ha)

Summary of Estimated Cereals Output (1000 te)

2018/20194218

2017/20184817

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1043
1040

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:FISHERIES SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/24/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Oil Use: Large Ships
Estimated Inventory of DPRK Larger Fishing Vessels (~1990s)
Average
Displacement(tonnes)

10,000485
60
200
438,250

Average
Horsepow er

2,250
400
100
200
360,200

NumberTotal Engine horsepower of Larger Ships
Average days at sea
Operating hours/day
Fraction of Ships in operation (as of 1990)
Average fraction of full power while operating
Total fishing fleet power use
Fuel consumption rate
Conversion Factor
Conversion Factor
Total Oil Use, Larger Ships
Fraction of Oil Use as Diesel
Fraction of Oil Use as Heavy Fuel Oil
Diesel Oil Use in Large Ships
Heavy Fuel Oil Use in Large Ships
Oil Use: Fishing Collectives
Number of fishing collectives
HP of motors on boats per collective
Average days at sea
Operating hours/day
Fraction of boats in operation (as of 1990)
Average fraction of full power while operating
Total collectives fishing fleet power use
Fuel consumption rate
Diesel Oil Use in Fishing Collectives
Oil Use: Processing/Other
Fisheries product output, total
Fraction of product processed
Fuels consumption per unit output
Fraction of fuels consumption as heavy oil
Fraction of fuels consumption as diesel oil
Fraction of fuels consumption as coal
Electricity Consumption per Unit output
Heavy Oil Use, Processing/Other
Diesel Oil Use, Processing/Other
Total Oil Use, Fisheries Sector
Coal Use: Ships
Coal Use: Processing/Other
Total Coal Use, Fisheries Sector
Electricity Use: Processing/Other
Total Electricity Use, Fisheries Sector

Description

Composite estimate based on sources 1, 4, and 6

8 Large Factory Ships
554 "Multi-purpose"
776 "Trap-fishing"
215 Others (estimate)
1,553 Total
360,200
200
12
85%
50%
3.674E+08 hp-hours
0.18 kg/hp-hr
1.032 kg Diesel/kgoe
0.04184 GJ/kgce
2.68E+06 GJ
95%
5%
2.55E+06 GJ
1.34E+05 GJ

284
76
200
12
75%
25%
9.71E+06 hp-hours
0.2 kg/hp-hr
7.88E+04 GJ

See above
Estimate, consistent with data in 1 for collectives
Estimate
Estimate
Estimate
7
From "Oil" Work sheet in this Work bookCalculated
Assumes only large factory ships use Heavy Fuel Oil

Placeholder estimate
58
Estimate, consistent with data in 1 for collectives
Estimate
Estimate
Estimate
Calculated
Assumed somewhat higher than for larger boats

no data
2.20E+06 tonnes
1990 value from Table 2 from FAO source in note 6
60%
Rough Estimate, assumes some not processed or minimally processsed
1.14 GJ/tonne
915%
Rough Estimate
10%
Rough Estimate
75%
Rough Estimate
110.32 kWh/tonne
9or
0.40 GJ/tonne
92.264E+05 GJ
Calculated
1.509E+05 GJ
Calculated
3.14E+06 GJ
Calculated
0.00E+00 GJ
no data
1.132E+06 GJ
Calculated
1.132E+06 GJ
Calculated
5.243E+05 GJ
Calculated
5.243E+05 GJ
Calculated

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ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY USE IN FISHERIES SECTOR(See Note 3)
1996
2000
Large Ships Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
30.0%
24.9%
Fishing Collectives Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
30.0%
24.9%
Oil/Coal Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
45.0%
37.4%
Elect. Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
45.0%
37.4%
2009
2010

2005
28.0%
28.0%
40.0%
40.0%
2014

2008
27.0%
26.0%
37.0%
37.0%
2015

Large Ships Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
Fishing Collectives Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
Oil/Coal Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
Elect. Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:

25.0%
23.0%
35.0%
34.0%
2016

27.0%
27.0%
38.0%
35.0%
2017

39.1%
39.1%
38.0%
33.0%
2018

26.75%
26.75%
30.0%
30.0%
2019

Large Ships Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:

47.8%

46.0%

34.0%

34.0%

Fishing Collectives Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
Oil/Coal Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
Elect. Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
Large Ships Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
Fishing Collectives Fishing Effort Relative to 1990:
Oil/Coal Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:
Elect. Use, Processing/Other Relative to 1990:

Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions--scaling roughly with
exports from 2010
Assumptions--scaling roughly with
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions--scaling roughly with
exports from 2010 except for 2018 and2019 (see notes 12, 17)
Assumptions (see Note 12)
Assumptions (see Note 12)

47.8%
46.0%
34.0%
34.0%
38.0%
36.0%
25.2%
25.2%
38.0%
40.0%
28.0%
28.0%
2020
30.6%
30.6%
22.7%
25.2%
See Notes 12, 16 (for 2017 assumptions) . 17 (for 2018-2020 assumptions).

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Sources/Notes:
1 From document in authors' files [IF1].
2 Chinese data, c. 1990. From p. 23: "Energy of China, 1993" [provided by J. Sinton of LBL--Chinese language].
3 The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) suggests that DPRK marine products catchdecreased substantially between 1996 and 1997, but increased somewhat between then and 2000. KOTRA data(from "Agriculture, Forestry, and Marine Products industries", available through http://www.k otra.or.k r/main/,visited 6/3/02) lists 1996 output of .876 million tonnes, and 1999 output of .664 million tonnes. A web page on"North Korea's Foreign Trade in 2000" from the same site listes the value of marine exports as having increased 9.4 %between 1999 and 2000. If all fisheries production track ed export earnings (which is not necessarily the case,but assumed for the sak e of argument here), the implied ratio of fisheries output between 1996 and 2000 is
83% . We further assume that fisheries effort (as reflected in fuel use) is proportional to fisheries output.
Alternatively, end of 1999 data based on the Economic and Social Comparison between the Two Koreas ,published by the National Statistics Administration (December 2000) and provided on
http://www.k oreascope.org/english/sub/1/index3-h.htm, suggest that the DPRK fish catch in 1999 was
45.70% of the catch in 1990. This figure is very close to the 42 percent figure shown above.
Further, data from source 6, below, shows 1996 total marine products production as45%
of 1990 production, but also shows a mark ed shift in production, with 68 percent of output from "marine capture"in 1989, to only 32 percent in 1996 (with the remainder being from aquaculture, 99% of which was marine
aquaculture. Since marine aquaculture seems lik ely to require significantly less energy for boats and ships than"marine capture", we estimate that 1996 energy use for fishing was 30% of 1990 energy use, and that
1996 energy use for processing and other fisheries sector energy use was reduced by the same amount asfisheries output was reported to decrease between 1990 and 1996. For 2000, the ratio shown above between
2000 and 1996 marine products output was used to scale energy use. The ROK Ministry of Unification site
http://www.unik orea.go.k r/en/index.jsp includes a listing of fisheries output suggesting that total marine products
production in the DPRK had increased to 1.16 million tonnes by 2004, a significant jump from2002 and 2003 (0.81 and 0.84 million tonnes). 2009 information on DPRK fisheries from the UN FAO "Fishstat"database shows a very slight reduction in output between 2000 and 2002, but as the same values are used for the years from2002 through 2009, our assumption is that no reliable data on total fisheries output in the DPRK have been made available to the UN.
See, for example, page 9 of 2009 FAO Yearbook , Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics , available
as http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/ba0058t/ba0058t.pdf, where DPRK fisheries output during 2002-2009 is listed at 205,000 tonnes.
4 The document Seoul T'ongil Kyongje , dated January 2002, pages 38-50, is an article by Hong Mi-ri entitled"North Korean Industries (Part IX): Fisheries Industry". This article includes the following information about
the DPRK fishing fleet: As of 1988, 30,600 boats, of which 21,000 were motorized. Of about 1540 primaryfishing boats, 766 were 30 to 100-ton "trap-fishing boats", 554 were "multipurpose" vessels of 450-485 tons, and8 large vessels in the 10,000-ton class (80 meters or more long, 2250 horsepower). The percentages of the fleet
in various categories as given in the article (trap fishing boats 60.0 % of total) do not quite match the totals provided,
but are close. The article states that "recent, unofficial information" suggests that only 400 of 1400
"relatively large motorized fishing boats" were operable due to "fuel shortages, faulty equipment, supply difficulties,
engine problems, and such things."
5 The document cited in Note 4 describes DPRK fisheries production in 1984 as 1.65 million tons, and1.78 million tons in 1993, but falling to 0.698 million tonnes by 2000.
The document describes 284 fisheries cooperatives of 70 - 100 households, owning 20 to 70 boats each.
The document also estimates that no more than 10 percent of the West Coast production potential is being used,and "the operation rate of fishing and processing facilities on the east coast is only at about 30 percent".
Cooperatives in 1998 are described as having 1500 motorized fishing boats, and 4000 non-motorized vessels,
which is roughly consistent with information in Reference 1, above.

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6 The document WORKING PAPER 6, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA REPORT OF
THE FISHERIES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMING MISSION, prepared for the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, dated November 1998, and available as
http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/383547.htm#P108-15868 (and http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/383547.htm as of 3/2012), includes larger(as Table 1) a listing of the fishing boats in the DPRK fleet. This table is reproduced below. Some figures in this table correspondgenerally with the data from source 4, above, though there are some discrepencies (in particular, the 8 largest
ships in the DPRK fleet are reported in various sources as 3750, 10,000, and 10,000 - 14,000 tonnes displacement)
the reference in the table below to 1545 boats probably is meant to be a total number for all of thecategories except the first.
Number of mechanized fishing boats classified by length and size of engine
Displacement
Tonnage

Gross tons

Length (Metres)

HP of the Engine

3 750
2 759
83
2 250
485
267
39
400
270
150
33
400
140
77
23-25
200
84
44
20-23
200
30
18
16-18
30
Original source for table cited:Ministry of Fisheries (DPRK)

Number8
1 545

7 Fuel consumption rate for diesels is assumed to average 0.18 k g/hp-hr, which is slightly higher than the(approximately) 1985 value for diesel-fueled boats in China cited on p. 18-6 in the chapter "Energy and Transport
in China" in the document Energy Mark ets and the Future of Energy Demand , by Lawrence Berk eley National
Laboratory (LBNL, USA), 1988. This figure is also similar to the fuel consumption estimate used for military
ships elsewhere in this analysis.
8 Source 1 lists small collectives as having 150 member, and 2 boats with 28 hp engines plus 5 boats with 4 hp
engines per collective. This is consistent with the lower end of the "20 - 70" boats per collective estimate provided
in note 5, above, assuming that many boats counted in the total are not motorized.
9 In the document Improving Energy Use and Productivity in West Coast and Alask an
Seafood Processing Plants , by Greg Kelleher, Edward Kolbe, and Greg Wheeler (2001), the authors
provide estimates of fuel consumption and output for five Alask an seafood processing plants. The document
is available as http://seagrant.oregonstate.edu/sgpubs/onlinepubs/t01004.pdf. Based on data in tables 1 and
2 of this document, per-unit output consumption of electricity and fuel oil can be calculated as follows:
Electricity Use
Fuels Use (oil, LPG)
Output average

3.41 GWh (5 plants)
33502 Million Btu (5 plants)
13.6 million lbs/yr per plant, or
0.031 Million Te total
Implied electricity use per te output:
110.32 kWh.
Implied oil use per te output:
1,143,502 kJ.
The application of these intensities to the DPRK situation is admittedly inexact at best. Although Alask an
seafood processors certainly handle some of the same types of seafood as were and are handled in DPRK
facilities, the compositions of the product lines will certainly be different (in fact, probably change year-to-year).
Moreover, Alask an seafood processing facilities are doubtless more efficient than DPRK facilities, but are also
lik ely to be much more highly mechanized. As a result, these figures for electricity and thermal energy use, asapplied to the DPRK situation, should be considered as initial estimates only, to be confirmed with better estimateswhen available.

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10 China Customs Statistics report that the DPRK imported 5 fishing boats in 2004, and 11 in 2005.
Based on the value of these shipments, however (and assuming that both the quantities and values reported
in the China Customs Statistics are complete), these vessels, with average costs of $600 (2005) to $6000(in 2004) US dollars each, would lik ely have been small in size (or, possibly, poor in quality and/or very old).
Import/export data as compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.
11 Anecdotal information about the status of North Korean Fisheries includes the following from North Korea Today , No. 298 (10/2009):
Wonsan Fishery Enterprise Reduced to a Fraction of Former Output
The Wonsan Fishery Enterprise has 2,500 laborers on its payroll and is not considered a large enterprise along the east coast . The
Enterprise is one of three major companies in Wonsan. In the past the Enterprise was doing relatively well because of large c atches offlounder. However, since the navy took over the fishery farm, the fishery enterprise has reached the point where it had to ce ase operations.
The reason for the end of the Fishery Enterprise lies in the method of the naval headquarters’ management. After enlarging operations tocatch any and all fish without limitation, flounder numbers have been critically depleted. Additionally, the Daeheung Trade C ompany allowed
Japan fishery rights in the area, causing severe competition with Japanese fishermen. Overseas Fishery was attempted, but fai led becauseof difficulties in facilities investments. Currently, only the No. 9 work unit is in operation, which sends caught fish to Py ongyang. Virtually all
the fishing activities of the Fishery Enterprise have come to an end.
The City of Wonsan currently has around 250 ships of different sizes in operation. Mostly of the ships belong to the military , trading
companies earning foreign currency, and some wealthy people. Only those organizations or individuals capable of providing fue l can operate
fisheries. Throughout Kangwon Province, small vessels with capacities of 8-HP (horse power) and 28-HP are concentrated in the Counties ofTongchun and Gosung. These small vessels are operated by individuals mainly because they require much less fuel to run.

12 Based on UN COMTRADE data, fisheries products exports from the DPRK (all nations and China) showed the following trends
in value and weight:(China only).
Value (USD)
Quantity (kg)ImpliedFraction of
Value asYear
All Nations
China
China
Implied $/kg China
2000 $ 94,095,193 $ 4,047,193
6,326,809 $
0.64
4.3% Most DPRK Exports went to Japan in 2000
2005 $ 129,815,406 $ 92,432,570
76,148,567 $
1.21
71.2%
2008 $ 40,454,018 $ 39,915,624
26,831,530 $
1.49
98.7%
2009 $ 57,848,371 $ 57,538,402
47,933,850 $
1.20
99.5%
2010 $ 64,715,567 $ 59,242,819
50,715,945 $
1.17
91.5%
2011 $ 84,453,497 $ 82,663,910
54,720,622 $
1.51
97.9%
2012 $ 102,770,056 $ 95,346,102
57,380,448 $
1.66
92.8%
2013 $ 118,231,968 $ 98,198,680
56,556,594 $
1.74
83.1%
2014 $ 143,496,127 $140,558,557
73,419,441 $
1.91
98.0%
2015 $ 114,078,384 108,017,339
40,854,316 $
2.64
94.7%
2016 $ 197,106,342 190,344,448
89,805,483 $
2.12
96.6%
2017 $ 164,545,685 163,029,081
95,910,651 $
1.70
99.1%
2018 $ 1,628,308#DIV/0!
0.0%
2019#DIV/0!
#DIV/0! No data export data available as yet (4/27/20)
2020#DIV/0!
#DIV/0! No data export data available as yet (4/27/20)

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China imports the vast bulk of these products--well over 90 percent. Listing 03, "Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates"
Most of China's imports from the DPRK are in the category "Molluscs", and specifically,"Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates // Molluscs, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried,
whether in shell or not, whether or not cook ed before or during the smok ing process; flours, meals and pellets of molluscs,
fit for human consumption. // - Cuttle fish (Sepia officinalis, Rossia macrosoma, Sepiola spp.)
and squid (Ommastrephes spp., Loligo spp., Nototodarus spp., Sepioteuthis spp.) : // -- Other", that is, cuttlefish and squid.
For the latter, quantities and values over the last several years for exports from the DPRK to China are as follows:
Year
Value (USD)
Quantity (kg) Implied $/kg
2010
$45,566,076
42,928,981 $
1.06
2011
$62,666,008
44,940,371 $
1.39
2012
$86,738,468
52,649,548 $
1.65
2013
$93,008,263
54,424,491 $
1.71
2014 $111,760,185
67,872,432 $
1.65
2015
$43,137,096
24,837,549 $
1.74
2016
$78,277
40,501 $1.93
2017$18,130,962
4,269,917 $4.25
For 2015 and especially 2016, most imports to China from the DPRK were in category 030799,"Molluscs, n.e.c., whether in shell or not, other than live, fresh, chilled, includes flours, meals and pellets of molluscs, fit for human consumption".
statistics for these trades are as follows:
Year
Value (USD)
Quantity (kg) Implied $/kg
2015
$26,982,649
9,784,411 $
2.76
2016 $136,034,310
77,797,504 $
1.75
2017
$147,544
46,070 $3.20
For 2017, the major fisheries products imported by China from the DPRK were in category 030743, frozen cuttlefish and squid(sales in this category were not reported in 2015 or 2016)
Year
Value (USD)
Quantity (kg) Implied $/kg
2017 $110,989,172
81,152,778 $1.37
These statistics imply an increase in fishing effort, at least for this particular product, although it is unclear what fraction of fisheries
effort squid fishing represents. Exports of custaceans to China from the DPRK have also increased mark edly in recent years, though the volumeof crustaceans caught (in k g) is much less than that of squid.
UN FAO data on DPRK fish "supplies" in recent years have not changed much, suggesting that no new data were availalble.
The increased harvest of squid is due, in part, to an abundance of squid as a result of the same conditions that have led to drought in
the DPRK, as described in "North Koreans turn to squid to compensate for drought", prepared by Choi Song Min for Daily NK,
dated July 15, 2015, and available as http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/15/north-k orea-drought-squid-harvest.
See also "North Korea's military orders surge in squid poaching", Daily Telegraph, by Mik e Firn, dated 28 Nov 2014, available as
http://www.telegraph.co.uk /news/worldnews/asia/northk orea/11259846/North-Koreas-military-orders-surge-in-squid-poaching.html.
Similarly, "North Korean fishing industry increases output", NK News, February 10th, 2015,
available as http://www.nk news.org/2015/02/north-k orean-fishing-industry-increases-output/,
also resports increased output after about 2011.
We assume that the sum total of these trends is an increase in fishing effort in smaller boats, mostly (fishing collectives), reflected in
an increase in oil use in those boats between 2010 and 2014, and a smaller increase in the use of oil and electricity for processing of marine products,
since the bulk of the processing of cuttlefish and squid, for example, seems to be being carried out by hand.
There was a major change in fisheries trade reports involving the DPRK as of 2018, as China reported no imports in the fisheries category
from the DPRK at all. This lack of reporting is probably due to UNSC sanctions on the DPRK, although it seems improbable thatfisheries exports from the DPRK to China really dropped to zero in 2018, when imports to the DPRK from China were at$
71 million,
which was about
69% of 2017 imports to the DPRK from China, but hardly insignificant. With little else to go on
with respect to available statistics (exports from the DPRK to other nations, mostly nations in Africa, continued at levels not very different than in 2017,
although those levels were on the order of a percent of historical trade with China), we assume that fisheries effort probably did
decline as a result of the combinations of sanctions on DPRK exports and on DPRK imports of diesel oil to fuel the fishing fleet, but thatfishing effort did not fall to zero. We assume that 2017 fisheries effort and processing energy use was about
70% of that in 2017.

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13 The UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as of 2018, has published what appear to be new statistics for estimated DPRK fisheries production in
the "Fishstat" database (see http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-commodities-production/en). Data for 2000 through 2017 for fisheries
production are as shown below. All values are designated "F", for "FAO Estimate", described as "Data estimated from available source of informationor calculation based on specific assumptions."
As such, the source and accuracy of these data are somewhat unclear. For example, fish catch varies very little over time, which is inconsistent
with reports of changes in catch as ocean conditions have changed from year to year. In the table below, data before 2015 were downloaded
from FAO in 2018 and 2019, while data for 2015 through 2017 were downloaded in February of 2020. 2017 was as of 2/2020 the most recent year forwhich statistics were available.
Production (Tonnes)

Crustaceans

FishMolluscs,
aquatic
invertebrates

Impliedfraction of
FAOreported
Production
Imported by
China

Total

Year
2000
2001
2002

5,402

70,297781

8,562

66,330500

19,99467,3785,629

20,531

66,331

3,936

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

76,4808.3%

75,39293,00190,79818,892

67,69921,405

7,366

66,59936,937

3,341

66,11522,758

2,660
2,300
2,250
2,100
2,600
2,010
1,670
2,235
2,168
9,855
8,280

61,88059,43957,95056,97558,29058,20558,93563,80565,81062,15062,40010,21519,08040,03743,55045,32553,17054,90068,36039,82040,54081,460107,996
110,902

68.7%

92,21474,75580,819100,237
102,625
106,215
113,385
115,505
134,400
107,798
112,545
152,140

33.2%
47.8%
49.4%
51.5%
50.6%
49.0%
54.6%
37.9%
79.8%
63.0%

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14 Image below is of a harbor in Chongjin filled with on the order of a thousand of what appear to be 10 to 15 meter fishing boats
and about 15 larger boats (15 meters). Image from Google Earth, approximate coordinates 41.778022, 129.829610, probably winter, 2018.
The image following is another basin about 4.5 k m from the first, at coordinates 41.768142, 129.777686, and appears to also hold nearly
1000 10-15 meter boats. This would appear to be a significant portion of the DPRK's east coast fishing fleet. Whether they have been stored
together in these basins for protection to wait out the winter and/or because they are idle for lack of fuel is an interesting question.
In addition, at least one report suggests that some of these Chongjin-based vessels belong to Munitions factories
that are task ed with fishing to generate foreign exchange income. See Radio Free Asia (2017), North Korean Munitions
Reported by Jieun Kim for RFA’s Korean Service, translated by Leejin Jun, and written in English by Roseanne Gerin.
Available as https://www.rfa.org/english/news/k orea/north-k orean-munitions-factories-turn-to-fishing-to-generate-foreign-currency-08092017152812.html

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The following image of an individual DPRK fishing boat is tak en fromhttps://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.dailymail.co.uk%2Fi%2Fpix%2F2017%2F11%2F28%2F14%2F46C42A40000005785125089-image-a-88_1511879839963.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews%2Farticle-5143573%2FAnother-North-Koreanghost-ship-washes-ashore.html&docid=9OFE5Y0MoDXRM&tbnid=YnnoidwAEWxGnM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjD4ISEuqffAhUMIDQIHUWiD_0QMwg7KAAwAA..i&w=634&h=356&client=firefox-b1&bih=916&biw=1920&q=DPRK%20squid%20boat%20photo&ved=0ahUKEwjD4ISEuqffAhUMIDQIHUWiD_0QMwg7KAAwAA&iact=mrc&uact=8

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15 https://www.telegraph.co.uk /news/worldnews/asia/northk orea/11259846/North-Koreas-military-orders-surge-in-squid-poaching.html
http://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2017/12/news/why-boats-rush/
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/north-k orean-vessels-expand-illegal-squid-fishing
16 For 2017, assumes 10 percent reduction in effort per unit of exports relative to to previous years due to assumed impact of diesel
supply restrictions due to UNSC sanctions.
17 The March 5, 2019 Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009), includes mention of the DPRK practice of"...prohibited transfer by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea of its fishing rights, as clarified inresolution 2397 (2017),
continued throughout 2018, acting as a potential source of income for the country." (P. 28 of https://www.undocs.org/S/2019/171.)
This practice apparently involved transferring DPRK fishing licenses to Chinese fishing boats and ships,
which then operatated in the waters off the DPRK and elsewhere. It is unclear what impact this practice might have on DPRK fishing effort,
and specifically, how it might affect DPRK fuel use for fishing. To the extent that DPRK fishing was effectively transferred to Chinese
vessels, it seems lik ely that DPRK fishing effort would decrease, although it seems possible that some of the Chinese vessels fishingin DPRK waters (or in international waters near that DPRK) with DPRK licenses might be obtaining fuel in the DPRK. The same source
includes a quote from a fisherman indicating "that there were around 200 Chinese fishing boats operating in the 'water of North Korea'".
If these were larger fishing vessels (with engines of around 100 hp or more), this would be the equivalent of more than 10% of the DPRK
fleet, but we do not really have information on the size of these vessels using DPRK licenses. We mak e the assumption that the practiceof transferring licenses further reduced DPRK fishing effort by
5% in 2018, although this must be considered theroughest of estimates. We assume that this estimate also holds for 2019. For 2020, we assume that the impacts of the COVID-19
virus and the impacts of the measures tak en to prevent it have had a relatively small impact on fishing effort, perhaps
10%
relative to 2019, because fishing would lik ely be considered a crucial occupation, given the importance of fish and seafood protein
to the DPRK population, as well as the importance of seafood exports to the economy. In addition, fishing itself involves gathering ofrelatively few people, though fish processing plants do typically require large numbers of people work ing close together.
18 The UNSC "Panel of Experts" in UNSC (2020), Note by the President of the Security Council , number S/2020/151, dated 2 March 2020, and including"Annex: Letter dated 26 February 2020 from the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009) addressed to the President of the
Security Council", available as https://undocs.org/S/2020/151, includes the following image of Chairman Kim Jong Un visiting a military fish processing
factory. The robotic equipment shown is an ABB (a Swiss equipment mak er) design, made in China, and possible exported second-hand to the DPRK.
Photo from page 49 of UNSC document, dated November 19, 2019, and originally from the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTOR
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/23/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Coal Use: Public/Commercial Sectors
Urban Residential Floor Space:
1.34E+08 sq.m.
Ratio of Res. Urban to Pub/Comml Space29.60%
Commercial Floor Space
3.972E+07 sq.m.
Coal Use intensity
33 kgce/sq.m.-yr
Conversion Factor
0.0293 GJ/kgce
Fraction of Buildings Heated with Coal
85%
Total Coal Use, Public/Commercial Sectors
3.26E+07 GJ/yr
District Heat Use: Public/Commercial Sectors
Fraction of Public/Commercial Floorspace with District Heating
15.00%
District Heat Use
2.64E+06 GJ/yr
Oil Use: Public/Commercial Sectors
9.79E+04 GJ/yr
Electricity Use: Public/Commercial Sectors
Electricity Use intensity, Buildings
27.5 kWh/sq.m.
Conversion Factor
0.0036 GJ/kWh
Electricity Use in Buildings
3.93E+06 GJ/yr
Other Electricity Use, Public/Commercial
7.00E+06 GJ/yr
Total Elect. Use, Public/Commercial Sectors
1.09E+07 GJ/yr
Wood/Biomass Use: Public/Commercial Sectors
1.63E+06 GJ/yr

1
42

See "District_heat" work sheet
No Data
3

5
10

ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY USE IN PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS(See Note 8)
Parameter
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
Sources/Notes:
Public/Commercial Floor space per unit
urban residential floor space relative to 1990:
100%
95.0%
90.0%
86%
85%
84%
7
Public/Commercial Floor space (sq.m.)
4.25E+07 4.226E+07 4.463E+07 4.556E+07 4.581E+07 4.6065E+07
Implied floorspace relative to 1990
106.93%106.39%112.36%114.70%115.34%115.97%
Coal use per square meter relative to 1990:
75%
45%
45%
45.0%
45.0%
45.0%
12
Elect. and Heat use per square meter relative to 1990:
57%
29.14%
47.0%
46.0%
42.0%
39.9%
13
Other Public/Comm'l elect use rel to 1990.
57.0%
29.14%
43.9%
45.1%
40.0%
37.9%
13
Wood/Biomass Use as a fraction of coal use:
10%
20%
30%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
10
Oil use as a fraction of coal use:
0.5%
0.5%
1.0%
1.42%
1.95%
2.45%
11
Fraction of Oil Use as Kerosene (remainder assumed LPG) 50.0%
50.0%
30.0%
25.0%
15.0%
15.00%
Parameter
Public/Commercial Floor space per unit
urban residential floor space relative to 1990:
Public/Commercial Floor space (sq.m.)
Implied floorspace relative to 1990
Coal use per square meter relative to 1990:
Elect. and Heat use per square meter relative to 1990:
Other Public/Comm'l elect use rel to 1990.
Wood/Biomass Use as a fraction of coal use:
Oil use as a fraction of coal use:

2014
87%
5.111E+07

128.66%
46.0%
32.9%
33.0%
26.0%
2.54%
Fraction of Oil Use as Kerosene (remainder assumed LPG) 13.00%

2015

2016

2017

88%

89%

90%

2018

2019

2020

90%

90%

88.7%

5.255E+07 5.402E+07 5.554E+07

5.644E+07

5.736E+07

5.746E+07

132.29%
47.0%
33.9%
34.0%
25.0%
3.50%
12.00%

142.10%
52.0%
34.6%
34.6%
22.0%
4.00%
6.00%

144.41%
52.0%
34.6%
34.6%
22.0%
4.00%
6.00%

144.67%
37.4%
24.9%
24.9%
22.0%
4.00%
5.00%

136.01%
48.0%
34.9%
34.8%
24.0%
3.50%
11.00%

A1- 413139.83%
50.0%
34.3%
34.3%
23.0%
3.82%
8.00%

14

15
15
15
15
15
16

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Ratio of all commercial to urban resid. floor area, heating zone of China, 1989. From "Energy Use andConservation in China's Residential and Commercial Sectors: Patterns, Problems, and Prospects",
by Feng Liu, LBL, March, 1993, p.26.)
2 For centrally heated buildings. 10% higher than Chinese value from source as in 1, page 41.
3 Derived based on data in 1, pages 26 and 63.
4 Note that this is about twice current Chinese levels, but less than half of 1985 USSR levels.
5 Placeholder estimate to bring total Agric/Services/Military power demand up to 25% of electricity use
as estimated in document in authors' files [EP1].
6 [Not Used]
7 Lower value in 2000 assumes the closure of some buildings no longer used. Trends after 2000 essentially assume that floorspace
grows at more or less the same rate as population, and thus at a slower pace than the number of households, since the growthrate in the number of urban households is higher than the rate of population growth (due to trends in migration and smaller families).
8 Based on visits to the DPRK in 1998 and 2000, commercial/public space does not seem to be under construction
at an unusual rate (when there is construction at all), so the ratio of residential to commercial/public space remains
as in 1990. The reduction in electricity use relative to 1990 is a function of the same assumed
average urban electricity outage rate used for the residential sector, namely that power outages in cities outside the
Pyongyang area as of 2000 were by far the rule rather than the exception. The fraction of 1990 coal use
per unit area assumed for 2000, 65%, reflects the assumption that coal availability is poor in many areas of thecountry.
9

China Customs Statistics reported imports of computers and computer components to the DPRK from China
more than doubled, in both number and value, between 2004 and 2005. This increase in computer (HS #8471)
imports may indicate or be a indicator of somewhat of an increase in public/commercial activity,
including, possibly, in the information technology sector.
Import data as compiled by Nathanial Aden, 2006. For related analysis, see also
N. Aden, North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implicationsas prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Dr. Aden's paper is available as http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0679Aden.pdf.

10 We have no direct data on use of wood and biomass as a heating and cook ing fuel in the public/commercial sector
in the DPRK as of 1990, but anecdotal evidence of widespread use of biomass fuels in at least some types ofcommon public institutions in recent years suggests that at least some use of biomass fuels for heating and cook ing
occurred in at least rural areas as of 1990. Accordingly, we assume that public/commercial/institutionaluse of biomass was approximately
5% of coal use, in terms of energy content in 1990.
Given the lower heating efficiency of biomass relative to coal in most applications, this implies thatbiomass accounted for only a few percent of heating provided in 1990. Some observers note that theuse of wood and other biomass fuels for heating (when used) and cook ing in several types of public sector
buildings has increased substantially since the mid-1990s, with wood often providing the bulk of fuel use.
11 We have no direct data on oil use in the public/commercial sectors, but it seems clear that some oil (in the form ofk erosene and LPG for cook ing) was and is used in the sector. We mak e the nominal assumption that oil use in1990 was 0.3 percent of coal use in the sector, rose to 0.5 percent in 1996, increased in 2000 to 1% of coal use, andto a level equal to 1.5 percent of coal use in 2005 and on as a result of the growth in the number of restaurants, primarily
in Pyongyang, but also elsewhere in the country. Oil use is assumed to be
90.0%
k erosene andand
10% LPG in 1990 but ramping up to higher fractions of LPG in 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008, and 2009.
12 Coal use is assume to decline substantially, particularly in 2000 and 2005, relative to 1990, based on observers reportsthat many public buildings, including most office buildings, have remained unheated in winter in recent years.
13 For 2000, public/commercial electricity use relative to 1990 is assumed similar to that for the residential sector.
For 2005, some observers report a modest increase in the availability of electricity to public/commercial buildings, though
the change in electricity availability varied substantially by area of the DPRK, including in relation to proximity to new orexisting power plants, or to priority users of power. From 2005 on, electricity use in the sector is assumed to roughly
follow estimated availability of electricity. Heat use in the sector is assumed to follow electricity use, as most of the distribution,
fuel availability, and plant maintenance problems that pertain to the electricity sector are lik ely to be shared with the heat production
sector, particularly as most heat production is from combined heat and power plants (or district heat boiler co-located with power plants).
14 Assumes, based on anecdotal reports, that the years from 2011-2017 saw an increase in the DPRK economy manifested, at least insome cities, in a modest increase in building of public/commercial buildings relative to residences. Due to the COVID-19
epidemic and DPRK measures to reduce its impact, we assume that commecial building space will not grow, on an annual basis,
as fast in 2020 as it has in previous years. We also assume that restrictions on movemen due to COVID-19 will, by the end of
2020, have reduced overall commercial and public energy use per unit of floor area by
28% relative to 2019.
15 Assumes that the use of coal, electricity, and oil in the public commercial sector increased somewhat from 2011 through 2017 relative toprevious years due to greater fuel availability and an improved economy, including, for example, greater mark et activity. For 2018,
assumes somewhat greater coal use due to lower domestic prices/higher availability because less coal was exported due to UNSC
sanctions. Conversely, biomass use in the sector is assumed to have declined somewhat with increasing availabity of other fuels.
16 Assumes more LPG use in the sector relative to k erosene use over time.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:ENERGY USED IN MILITARY BUILDINGS AND OTHER FACILITIESPrepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/24/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Coal Use: Military Sector
Military Installation Floor Space:
Coal Use intensity
Conversion Factor
Total Coal Use, Military Buildings
Coal Use, Military Manufacturing
Other Coal Use: Military Sector
Total Coal Use, Buildings and Other
Oil Use: Military Sector
Oil Use, Military Transport Vehicles
Oil Use, Heavy Armaments
Oil Use in Air ForceOil Use in NavyOil Use, Buildings and Other
Total Oil Use, Military Sector
Electricity Use: Military Buildings and Other
Electricity Use intensity, Buildings
Conversion Factor
Other Electricity Use
Total Electricity Use, Buildings and Other:
Electricity Use, Military Manufacturing
Total Electricity Use, Military:
Wood Use: Military Sector
Intensity of wood/biomass fuel use relative to coal use

2.00E+07 sq.m.
33 kgce/sq.m.-yr
0.0293 GJ/kgce
1.93E+07 GJ/yr
8.90E+05 GJ/yr
9.60E+06 GJ/yr
2.98E+07 GJ/yr

1
2

5, 8
1

6.58E+06 GJ/yr
2.63E+05 GJ/yr
2.65E+06 GJ/yr
6.94E+06 GJ/yr
1.00E+05 GJ/yr
1.65E+07 GJ/yr

5
5
5
5
1

55 kWh/sq.m.-yr
0.0036 GJ/kWh
1.00E+07
1.40E+07 GJ/yr
4.77E+04 GJ/yr
1.40E+07 GJ/yr

4

200%

10

1
5

Energy Use in 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014-2018 Relative to 1990 for Subsectors/End-Uses Not
Covered in Military Workbook
1996 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
95%
Assumption
2000 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
85%
Assumption
2005 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
80%
Assumption
2008 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
75% Assumption; note 122009 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
75% Assumption; note 122010 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
75% Assumption; note 122014 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
77% Assumption; note 132015 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
78% Assumption; note 132016 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
79% Assumption; note 132017 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
80% Assumption; note 132018 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
82% Assumption; note 13
2019 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
82% Assumption; note 132020 Coal/Wood Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
71% Assumption; note 13
1996 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
95%
Assumption
2000 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
85%
Assumption
2005 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
85%
Assumption
2008 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
82%
Assumption
2009 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
78%
Assumption
2010 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
76%
Assumption
2014 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
78% Assumption; note 132015 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
79% Assumption; note 132016 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
80% Assumption; note 132017 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
80% Assumption; note 132018 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
76% Assumption; note 13
2019 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
76% Assumption; note 132020 Oil Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
65% Assumption; note 13
1996 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
10%92000 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
15%
92005 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
17%
9, 11
2008 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
17%
2009 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
17%
2010 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
17%
2014 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
16%
132015 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
15%
132016 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
14%
132017 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
14%
132018 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
14%
132019 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
14%
132020 Fraction of Coal and Wood Use as Wood
14%
13
1996 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
55%
Assumption
2000 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990 (See Note 6)
53%
Assumption
2005 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990 (See Note 7)
62.5%
Assumption
2008 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
65.0%
Assumption
2009 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
58.2%
Assumption
2010 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
55.00%
Assumption
2014 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
58.00% Assumption; note 132015 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
60.00% Assumption; note 132016 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
61.50% Assumption; note 132017 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
62.00% Assumption; note 132018 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
63.00% Assumption; note 13
2019 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
63.00% Assumption; note 132020 Elect. Use, Buildings and Other, relative to 1990
54% Assumption; note 13

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Sources/Notes:
1 Placeholder Estimate, but electricity comparable to estimates by KERI ("Analysis of Present Status and Future
Supply /Demand Prospects for the DPRK Power System", by J.Y. Yoon, presented at the DPRK Energy
Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo Alto, CA, USA) that military sector
electricity demand in the DPRK would be about 4.9 TWh/yr if unconstrained. Since electricity demand in1990 in the DPRK was already somewhat constrained by supply, we assume that total military electricity
use in that year was about 80% of the KERI (Korea Electrotechnical Research Institute) figure. Dr. Yoon's
presentation is avaialble as http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Papers/Yoon.ppt.
2 Assumed to be 10% higher than value for centrally heated Commercial/Public buildings from " Energy Use andConservation in China's Residential and Commercial Sectors: Patterns, Problems, and Prospects",
by Feng Liu, LBL, March, 1993, p.41.)
3 Derived based on data in 1, pages 26 and 63.
4 Assumed to be 100% higher than the level in (other) public and commercial buildings due to use of
specialized electrical equipment.
5 As estimated in other Military Energy Consumption sections.
6 Rough assumption, but as the electricity situation in the country had continued to worsen, it.seems unlik ely
that electricity use in military buildings in the DPRK was larger in 2000 than in 1996, evenconsidering the importance of the military sector in the DPRK
7 Rough assumption, tak ing into account that as the overall electricity situation in the country has
improved slightly from 2000 to 2005, military sector electricity use should rise somewhat.
8 The journal Seoul T'ongil Kyongje , dated July 2002, contains an article (pages 28-36) by So Chu-sok entitled"North Korean Industries (Part X): Munitions Industry". Among the information in this article is the following:"…North Korean military power has not changed greatly since….the mid 1990s", apart from some missile developmentand "expanded forward deployment of long-range artillery". The article estimates the size of the military at
1.7 million people, consuming much more than 5% of food in the country, and more than 15 percent of fuel oil usedin the DPRK. Military stock piles of food and fuel are "100 to 120 days worth", but it is not stated whether.
this refers to days under typical non-combat or combat conditions. The article states that there are about
180 munitions factories in the DPRK, including about 40 gun factories, 10 armored vehicle factories, 50 ammunitions
factories, and 10 naval shipyards, producing a total of 25 percent of GNP. Exports of SCUD-C missiles
in the early 1990s are estimated at 100 to 150 per year. Factories, largely based on Soviet/East Bloc
technology, have become "technologically obsolete and their facilities are run down", resulting in "extremely low"efficiency and high rates of consumption of energy and materials that, coupled with fuel and materials shortages, have"caused production setback s" in some factories. These trends are tak en into account in the analysisof energy demand in the military manufacting sector (see military sector analysis work papers).
9 The publication Seoul Wolgan Choson published an article by Kim Yon-k wang and Yi Sang-hun, dated 1 October, 2003
(pages 168-181), entitled "Kim Chong-il's Military is Hoarding All Rice Aid as Military Provision", which is based on
an interview with a DPRK soldier named Chin Yon-k yu, who had defected to the ROK, but who was (or claimed to be)a driver for a high-rank ing officer. This article contains one of a number of anecdotal reports, including reports
by observers of and recent visitors to the DPRK, that suggest that soldiers, lik e many DPRK residents
have in recent years, in many locales, been obliged to forage, in both the broad and specific senses of the word,for both food and fuel. Although no quantitative data are available to assist in estimating the impact of
the need for military units to use wood fuel, we have assumed that the fraction of fuel for cook ing and heating madeup by wood has risen, starting at (near) zero, we assume, in 1990, rising substantially in 1996 and through 2000,
and rising only slightly between 2000 and 2005 as the DPRK economy improved somewhat. After 2005, the fraction ofof wood fuel use is assumed to be constant.
10 Rough assumption, but considering that much biomass is probably burned in open fireplaces, and much of thebiomass/wood fuel used is probably green (wet and unseasoned), it seems reasonable to assume the the efficiencyof biomass fuel use might be half that (twice the intensity) of coal use for cook ing and heating end-uses.
11 By way of comparison, the assumptions above for 2005 suggests military wood/biomass fuel use of approximately
4.06E+06 GJ is approximately the amount of wood fuel energy needed to cook
1.27E+08
k ilograms of rice, assuming the use of
2 k g of (dry) wood fuel per k g of rice.
(Note that this is a highly variable quantity, depending on cook ing methods and the type of fireplace/stove and pots
used, but the figure cited is within the range of values provided in, for example,
http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AB780E/AB780E03.htm
http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/rural/energy_use_in_rural_areas/2_3.asp, andhttp://www.fao.org/docrep/x5400e/x5400e04.htm.)
At an average daily ration of
0.5 k g per soldier (various accounts put soldiers rations
at about 500 grams per day, sometimes somewhat lower or higher, depending on the soldier's task s, duty station,and food availability), this implies that wood equivalent to the amount needed to cook rice for about
694,632 soldiers is used. Given that some wood will in fact be used for heating, or for cook ing
other foods this figure--the equivalent of about 70 percent of the number of people the DPRK was estimated toin uniform as of about 2005, seems generally plausible.
12 Anecdotal reports, both published and otherwise, suggest that military installations suffer from the same lack ofheating fuels as other parts of the economy. See, for example, "Military-First, But Still No Heating on Bases", by Im Jeong Jin,
Daily NK , dated 2011-01-24, and available as http://www.dailynk .com/english/read.php?cataId=nk 01500&num=7290
13 Assumes slowly improving fuel availabiity for coal, oil, and electricity in military installations, consistent with both an emphasison the military under Kim Jong Un and improving fuel availability in the country generally. Consistent with this trend, we
assume that the use of wood fuel in the military slowly declined over 2010 through 2017. For 2018, assumes that
reduced fuel availabilty due to UNSC sanctions results in lower use of oil than in 2017, with some additional coal
use as less coal was exported and thus more coal might have been available for domestic use, but with little impact onelectricity, and wood/biomass fuel use. Impacts of sanctions on military sector fuel use are assumed to be less thanfor other sectors, as military fuel use is typically prioritized in allocations. For 2019, assumes activity was similar to
2018. For 2020, due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the DPRK's measures to reduce its impact, we assume that the
military lock down reduced overall use of coal/wood, oil, and electricity use in military buildings by
14% ,which assumes that there was slightly lower building occupancy relative to previous years, but also less overall activity
that required enegy use. Note that this fraction is less than (that is, assumes less of a reduction than) used for thecommercial and public sector, largely because of the assumption that the occupants of military buildings will have been
obliged to remain ath their posts or in their barrack s during the COVID-19-related lock down.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:OTHER/NON-SPECIFIED SECTOR
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
6/24/2020

DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Sources/Notes:
Coal Use: Other/Non-Specified Sectors
Diesel Oil Use: Other/Non-Specified Sectors
Kerosene/Jet Fuel Use: Other/Non-Specified Sect.
Electricity Use: Other/Non-Specified Sectors
Wood/Biomass Use: Other/Non-Specified Sectors
Heat from Yongbyon Nuclear Reactor used locally

1.70E+06 GJ/yr
4.25E+06 GJ/yr

1
1

4.73E+05 GJ/yr

2

ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY USE IN NON-SPECIFIED SECTORS
Values Relative to 1990
Oil used in unspecified/other sectors
Heat from Yongbyon Nuclear Reactor

1996
0%
0%

2000
0%
0%

2005
0%
100%

2008
0%
0%

2009
0%
0%

2010
0% Assumption
0%
3

Values Relative to 1990
Oil used in unspecified/other sectors
Heat from Yongbyon Nuclear Reactor

2014
0%
67%

2015
0%
67%

2016
0%
67%

2017
0%
67%

2018
0%
67%

2019
0%
0%

Values Relative to 1990
Oil used in unspecified/other sectors
Heat from Yongbyon Nuclear Reactor

2020
0%
33%

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Sources/Notes:
1 Included to account for remainder of refined products production in balance sheet, 1990.
2 See Note 13 in "ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 1990" work sheet.
3 Yongbyon reactor not operating in 1996 or 2000. Capacity factor in 2005 assumed to be similar to that in1990 (about 60 percent). According to several sources (see, for example, Nuclear Threat Initiative,"Yongbyon 5 MWe Reactor", available at https://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/766/, andGlobalSecurity.org, "Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD): Yongbyon (Nyongbyon)", available asas https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk /yongbyon-5.htm), the Yongbyon plant operated
at least "intermittently" from 2014 through 2018. We assume that the reactor operated somewhat
less than in previous periods of activity, at an average capacity factor of about
40%
percent. In 2019, several sources suggest that the reactor did not operate at all, so we assume thatheat output for 2019 was
0% of full capacity. For 2020, some sources suggest that althoughno activity had been detected to about March of 2020, the DPRK was possibly readying the reactor fora restart. We therefore assume that heat output in 2020 was about
20% of capacity.
Relevant references include SHIM KYU-SEOK (2019), "Yongbyon reactor seems to be idle, says IAEA",
Korea JoongAng Daily, dated September 18, 2019, andavailable as https://k oreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3068062; Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha (2019)"Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Normal Operations with Low Level Activity", Beyond Parallel, dated April 1, 2019, andavailable as https://beyondparallel.csis.org/yongbyon-nuclear-complex-normal-operations-with-low-level-activity/;
38 North (2019), "North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Low Level Activity and Flood Management", dated August 30, 2019, andavailable as https://www.38north.org/2019/08/yongbyon083019/; and Peter Mak owsk y, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu (2020),"North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Rail Activity at the Radioisotope Production and Uranium Enrichment Plants", dated February 14, 2020,
and available as https://www.38north.org/2020/02/yongbyon021420/.
The image below, from Google Earth Pro, shows the Yongbyon "5 Mwe" reactor as of October 13, 2019, apparently not operating, as
indicated by the lack of steam from the smok estack .

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:NON-ENERGY RESOURCE USES
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:
6/24/2020
DERIVATION OF INFORMATION PASSED TO ENERGY BALANCE SHEET, 1990
Coal and Oil Use as feedstock: Fertilizer (Ammonia) production
Total Coal Use: Non-Energy Applications:
Oil Use: Non-Energy Products excluding:-- heavy oil for fertilizer production-- naptha for fertilizer production
Wood/Biomass Use: Roundwood for Wood Products:
Wood/Biomass Use: Non-Energy Applications

Sources/Notes:
1

1.83E+07 GJ/yr
1.37E+07 GJ/yr
5.771E+06 GJ/yr
9.15E+05 GJ/yr
3.66E+06 GJ/yr
1.20E+07 GJ/yr
1.20E+07 GJ/yr

4552
Sources/Notes:

ESTIMATE OF CURRENT AND FUTURE NON-ENERGY USE OF FUELS
Values Relative to 1990
Coal, Oil feedstock for ammonia production
Oil Use: Other Non-Energy Products
Wood/biomass used as roundwood:

1996
24.7%
23.65%
60%

2000

2005
11%
11.00%
50%

2008
11%
10.40%
50%

20097%
13.50%
50%

2010

8%
38.00%
50%

Values Relative to 1990
Coal, Oil feedstock for ammonia production
Oil Use: Other Non-Energy Products
Wood/biomass used as roundwood:

2014
22.5%
10.20%
50%

2015
21.0%
11.23%
50%

2016
24.0%
9.30%
50%

2017
16.3%
22.35%
50%

2018
9.1%
18.72%
50%

2019
9.1%
3
18.76%
6
50% Assumption

Values Relative to 1990
Coal, Oil feedstock for ammonia production
Oil Use: Other Non-Energy Products
Wood/biomass used as roundwood:

2020
4.6%
15.00%
50%

7%
3
15%
6
50% Assumption

3
6
Assumption

Sources/Notes:
1 Imported from Industry sheet.
2 Imported from Biomass sheet.
3 Assumed same as production relative to 1990 for the fertilizer subsector; imported from "Industry--96-on" sheet.
4 Estimate based on estimated output of bitumen, petroleum cok e, lubricants, and waxes in 1990.
Some of these products were probably exported (to Russia and possibly China).
5 For Nitrogen fertilizer manufacture. See "Industry-96-on" work sheet in this work book , note 3.
6 Adjusted in part to mak e production plus imports minus exports of "LPG/Refinery Fuel/Non-Energy Products" balance demand.
Assumes lower consumption in 2018 and 2019 than in 2017 due to lower availability of these products due to UNSC sanctions.
For 2020, assumes that use of non-energy products decreased due to restrictions on movement related to the COVID-19 epidemic
response measures.

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Additional Summary Figures and Tables
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEADDITIONAL GRAPHS AND FIGURESHFO Supply Summary: Thousand tonnes
SOURCE
KEDO/6-PARTY TALKSIMPORTSDOMESTIC
TOTAL
KEDO/6-PARTY TALKSIMPORTSDOMESTIC
TOTAL

1990
0
150
930.4
1,080
0%
14%
86%
100%

1996
500
94
356
950
53%
10%
37%
100%

2000
395
145
151
691
57%
21%
22%
100%

2005
132
202
334
0%
39%
61%
100%

2008
304
319
194
818
37%
39%
24%
100%

2009
10
191
200
0%
5%
95%
100%

2010
16
214
231
0%
7%
93%
100%

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YEAR
2014
8
213
221
0%
4%
96%
100%

2015
11
238
249
0%
4%
96%
100%

2016
13
248
261
0%
5%
95%
100%

2017
4
119
123
0%
3%
97%
100%

2018
1
132
133
0%
1%
99%
100%

2019
2
132
134
0%
1%
99%
100%

2020
1
139
140
0%
1%
99%
100%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
HFO Demand Summary: Petajoules (PJ)
CONSUMEROIL-ELECT.
COAL-ELECT
INDUSTRYSHIPSSTORAGETOTAL
OIL-ELECT.
COAL-ELECT
INDUSTRYSHIPSSTORAGETOTALHFO Supply Summary
KEDO/Six Party Talks
Net Non-KEDO Imports
Domestic Refining
TOTAL

1990
15.6
6.3
21.7
1.1
44.8
35%
14%
48%
3%
0%
100%

1996
11.7
13.7
7.1
0.5
6.4
39.4
30%
35%
18%
1%
16%
100%

2000
2.6
12.8
10.8
0.5
(1.24)
25.5
10%
50%
42%
2%
-5%
100%

2005
3.0
3.2
7.4
0.5
(0.21)
13.8
21%
23%
54%
4%
-2%
100%

2008
3.0
7.8
6.5
0.40
17.7
17%
44%
37%
2%
0%
100%

2009
3.0
1.4
3.9
0.36
8.6
34%
16%
45%
4%
0%
100%

2010
2.4
1.2
4.9
0.39
8.8
27%
13%
56%
4%
0%
100%

YEAR
2014
2.1
1.9
5.2
0.38
9.6
22%
20%
55%
4%
0%
100%

2015
2.1
1.7
6.6
0.35
10.7
19%
16%
62%
3%
0%
100%

2016
1.9
1.8
7.1
0.40
11.2
17%
16%
63%
4%
0%
100%

2017
0.6
1.1
3.4
0.36
5.5
11%
20%
62%
7%
0%
100%

2018
0.6
1.4
3.6
0.31
5.9
10%
24%
61%
5%
0%
100%

2019
0.6
1.4
3.6
0.31
5.9
10%
23%
61%
5%
0%
100%

6.2
38.6
44.8

20.7
4.1
14.8
39.6

16.4
3.2
6.3
25.9

5.5
8.4
13.9

12.6
(3.2)
8.5
17.9

0.4
8.3
8.7

(0.4)
9.3
8.9

0.3
9.2
9.6

0.5
10.3
10.8

0.5
10.7
11.2

0.2
5.4
5.5

0.0
5.9
5.9

0.0
5.9
5.9

2020
0.6
1.2
4.1
0.22
6.2
10%
20%
66%
4%
0%
100%
0.0
6.2
6.2

HFO Demand Summary: Tonnes
CONSUMEROIL-ELECT.
COAL-ELECT
INDUSTRYSHIPSSTORAGETOTAL
OIL-ELECT.
COAL-ELECT
INDUSTRYSHIPSSTORAGETOTALHFO Supply Summary
KEDO/Six Party Talks
Net Non-KEDO Imports
Domestic Refining
TOTAL

1990
376,474
152,473522,652
27,024
1,078,623
35%
14%
48%
3%
0%
100%

1996
282,433
330,940
170,671
11,771
154,538
950,353
30%
35%
18%
1%
16%
100%

2000
62,524309,475
260,751
10,867(30,000)
613,616
10%
50%
42%
2%
-5%
100%

2005
71,343
76,341
178,032
11,756(5,000)332,471
21%
23%
54%
4%
-2%
100%

2008
71,343
188,492
157,8199,614
427,268
17%
44%
37%
2%
0%
100%

2009
71,34333,882
94,621
8,564
208,410
34%
16%
45%
4%
0%
100%

150,000
930,400
1,080,400

500,000
98,541355,745954,285394,722
76,795
151,552
623,069

131,847
202,323
334,169

304,000(77,422)204,501
431,079

8,511
200,753
209,264

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YEAR
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
57,07449,94049,94046,143
14,766
14,766
14,766
14,76628,39945,241
40,71943,017
27,04933,53633,177
29,819118,455 126,233 159,700 171,295
81,92786,59586,274
98,747
9,337
9,072
8,388
9,696
8,740
7,455
7,455
5,248
213,264 230,486 258,748 270,151 132,482 142,352 141,673 148,579
27%
22%
19%
17%
11%
10%
10%
10%
13%
20%
16%
16%
20%
24%
23%
20%
56%
55%
62%
63%
62%
61%
61%
66%
4%
4%
3%
4%
7%
5%
5%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(10,263)
224,384
214,120

8,415
222,864
231,280

11,188248,412259,599

12,706258,285
270,991

3,774
129,278
133,052721
142,515
143,235

46
142,515
142,561721
149,165
149,885

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimated Disposition of Heavy Fuel Oil by Year
50
STORAGE

40

SHIPS

Petajoules (PJ)

INDUSTRY
COAL-ELECT

30

OIL-ELECT.

20
101990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(10.0)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimated Disposition of Heavy Fuel Oil by Year
1,200,000
STORAGE

Tonnes1,000,000

SHIPS
INDUSTRY

800,000

COAL-ELECTOIL-ELECT.

600,000
400,000
200,000

1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(200,000.0)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Demand Summary for Other Refined Products: Terajoules
DIESEL OIL
SECTOR
1990
1996
2000
INDUSTRIAL
3,050
671
633
TRANSPORT
12,926
5,180
4,020
RESIDENTIALAGRICULTURAL
5,005
1,319
968
FISHERIES
2,777
856
710
MILITARY
6,859
5,248
5,320
NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER
1,700
TOTAL
32,317
13,274
11,651
INDUSTRIAL
9%5%
5%
TRANSPORT
40%
39%
35%
RESIDENTIAL
0%0%
0%
AGRICULTURAL
15%
10%
8%
FISHERIES
9%6%6%MILITARY
21%
40%
46%
NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER
5%
0%
0%
TOTAL
100%
100%
100%

2005
844
7,761
1,164
796
5,372
15,937
5%
49%
0%
7%
5%
34%
0%
100%

GASOLINE
1996
2000
10,378
3,350
6,352
4,634
16,729
7,984
0%
0%
62%
42%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
38%
58%
0%
0%
100%
100%

1990
23,2207,386
30,606
0%
76%
0%
0%
0%
24%
0%
100%

2005
2,395
4,128
6,524
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
63%
0%
100%

KERO/JET FUEL/LPG
1990
1996
2000
399
320
354
6,600
1,785
2,079
1,798
1,199
824
4,250
13,047
3,303
3,257
0%
0%
0%
3%
10%
11%
51%
54%
64%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
36%
25%
33%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%

2005
611
909
1,386
2,906
0%
21%
31%
0%
0%
48%
0%
100%

2017
6,768
235
4,028
887
1,261
3,066
16,246
42%
1%
25%
0%
5%
8%
19%
0%
100%

2020
7,002
235
2,907
741
837
1,587
13,308
53%
2%
22%
0%
6%
6%
12%
0%
100%

Demand Summary for Other Refined Products: Terajoules
SECTOR
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYNON-SPECIFIED/OTHERTOTALELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER
TOTAL

1990
3,050
12,926
5,005
2,777
6,859
1,700
32,317
0%
9%
40%
0%
15%
9%
21%
5%
100%

1996
671
5,180
1,319
856
5,248
13,274
0%
5%
39%
0%
10%
6%
40%
0%
100%

2000
633
4,020
968
710
5,320
11,651
0%
5%
35%
0%
8%
6%
46%
0%
100%

2005
1,390
844
7,761
1,164
796
5,372
17,327
8%
5%
45%
0%
7%
5%
31%
0%
100%

2008
1,889
403
5,172
1,008
764
4,147
13,383
14%
3%
39%
0%
8%
6%
31%
0%
100%

2009
2,380
463
4,004
950
708
3,836
12,341
19%
4%
32%
0%
8%
6%
31%
0%
100%

DIESEL OIL
2010
2014
3,428
7,279
503
336
4,360
4,362
1,031
983
766
1,084
4,447
3,852
14,535
17,895
24%
41%
3%
2%
30%
24%
0%
0%
7%
5%
5%
6%
31%
22%
0%
0%
100%
100%

A1- 4252015
10,060
419
4,424
1,042
748
3,884
20,578
49%
2%
21%
0%
5%
4%
19%
0%
100%

2016
13,221
470
4,761
1,106
1,313
3,991
24,862
53%
2%
19%
0%
4%
5%
16%
0%
100%

2018
6,740
235
3,894
757
930
2,872
15,427
44%
2%
25%
0%
5%
6%
19%
0%
100%

2019
7,681
235
4,129
749
930
2,872
16,595
46%
1%
25%
0%
5%
6%
17%
0%
100%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

SECTOR
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL

1990
23,2207,386
30,606
0%
0%
76%
0%
0%
0%
24%
100%

1996
10,378
6,352
16,729
0%
0%
62%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

2000
3,350
4,634
7,984
0%
0%
42%
0%
0%
0%
58%
100%

2005
2,395
4,128
6,524
0%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
63%
100%

2008
32
6,022
3,747
9,801
0%
0%
61%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

2009
87
4,491
3,531
8,108
1%
0%
55%
0%
0%
0%
44%
100%

GASOLINE
2010
2014
135
957
5,074
4,942
3,775
4,192
8,984
10,092
1%
9%
0%
0%
56%
49%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
42%
42%
100%
100%

A1- 426

2015
2,844
5,041
4,555
12,439
23%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

2016
2,667
5,090
4,702
12,459
21%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

2017
2,982
4,973
4,733
12,688
23%
0%
39%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

2018
3,041
4,741
4,709
12,490
24%
0%
38%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

2019
3,029
4,515
4,722
12,266
25%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

2020
3,900
3,679
3,030
10,609
37%
0%
35%
0%
0%
0%
29%
100%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SECTOR
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYTOTAL
SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYTOTAL
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYTOTALGASOLINE
2014

1990

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

528,192
168,018
696,210

236,062
144,484
380,546

76,208105,404
181,61354,48593,912
148,397717
136,988
85,242
222,947

1,973
102,148
80,320184,440

3,061
115,425
85,871
204,357

21,769112,427
95,363
229,559

64,683
114,677
103,602282,963

60,676
115,775
106,955
283,406

67,824
113,130
107,667
288,621

69,166
107,836
107,108
284,110

68,901
102,703
107,418
279,02288,72083,693
68,915
241,328

0%
0%
76%
0%
0%
0%
24%
100%

0%
0%
62%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

0%
0%
42%
0%
0%
0%
58%
100%

0%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
63%
100%

0%
0%
61%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

1%
0%
55%
0%
0%
0%
44%
100%

1%
0%
56%
0%
0%
0%
42%
100%

9%
0%
49%
0%
0%
0%
42%
100%

23%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

21%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

23%
0%
39%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

24%
0%
38%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

25%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

37%
0%
35%
0%
0%
0%
29%
100%

1990

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

KEROSENE/JET FUEL
2010
2014
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

9,243
103,513
41,612
154,368

7,395
12,797
27,74147,933

8,191
9,916
19,072
37,17814,14521,03032,076
67,251

15,835
18,56036,41070,805

14,37914,91626,00755,303

16,60018,34632,07667,022

16,26818,05524,67258,995

18,253
22,531
32,50473,28919,51424,47838,14882,14017,255
15,712
27,07360,04017,255
7,527
25,38150,16317,0996,113
28,76551,977

10,900
5,633
18,61235,145

6%
67%
0%
0%
27%
100%

15%
27%
0%
0%
58%
100%

22%
27%
0%
0%
51%
100%

21%
31%
0%
0%
48%
100%

22%
26%
0%
0%
51%
100%

26%
27%
0%
0%
47%
100%

25%
27%
0%
0%
48%
100%

28%
31%
0%
0%
42%
100%

25%
31%
0%
0%
44%
100%

24%
30%
0%
0%
46%
100%

29%
26%
0%
0%
45%
100%

34%
15%
0%
0%
51%
100%

33%
12%
0%
0%
55%
100%

31%
16%
0%
0%
53%
100%

A1- 427

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Demand Summary for Other Refined Products: Tonnes
2005

DIESEL OIL
2010
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

55,072

79,334

168,454

232,829

305,991

156,639

155,985

177,758

9,318

10,715

11,647

7,765

9,706

10,871

5,435

5,435

5,435

5,435

119,70992,673

100,896

100,956

102,393

110,184

93,22390,12595,572

67,272

SECTOR
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYNON-SPECIFIED/OTHERTOTALELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYNON-SPECIFIED/OTHER
TOTAL

1990

1996

2000

2008

2009

-

-

-

32,181

43,7092020

70,58915,53014,653

19,528299,164

119,885

93,043

179,620

SECTOR
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL

1990

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

528,192
168,018

236,062
144,484

76,208105,404

54,48593,912717
136,988
85,242

1,973
102,148
80,320

3,061
115,425
85,871

21,769112,427
95,36364,683
114,677
103,60260,676
115,775
106,955

67,824
113,130
107,667

69,166
107,836
107,108

68,901
102,703
107,418

88,72083,693
68,915696,210

380,546

181,613148,397

222,947

184,440

204,357

229,559

282,963

283,406

288,621284,110279,022

241,328

0%
0%
76%
0%
0%
0%
24%
100%

0%
0%
62%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

0%
0%
42%
0%
0%
0%
58%
100%

0%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
63%
100%

0%
0%
61%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

1%
0%
55%
0%
0%
0%
44%
100%

1%
0%
56%
0%
0%
0%
42%
100%

9%
0%
49%
0%
0%
0%
42%
100%

23%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

21%
0%
41%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

23%
0%
39%
0%
0%
0%
37%
100%

24%
0%
38%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

25%
0%
37%
0%
0%
0%
38%
100%

37%
0%
35%
0%
0%
0%
29%
100%

162,061

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

115,836

30,532

22,406

26,94923,32021,99523,85822,762

24,12625,58820,537

17,51917,32917,13964,26919,805

16,43818,414

17,684

16,38017,73725,083

17,30530,38429,18721,51721,517

19,365

158,739

121,469

123,116

124,334

95,98688,787

102,915

89,15489,897

92,37870,96566,461

66,46136,721

39,345

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

747,942

307,221269,655

401,026

309,725

285,623

336,387

414,173476,257

575,397375,986

357,042

384,071

307,994

0%
9%
40%
0%
15%
9%
21%
5%
100%

0%
5%
39%
0%
10%
6%
40%
0%
100%

0%
5%
35%
0%
8%
6%
46%
0%
100%

8%
5%
45%
0%
7%
5%
31%
0%
100%

14%
3%
39%
0%
8%
6%
31%
0%
100%

19%
4%
32%
0%
8%
6%
31%
0%
100%

24%
3%
30%
0%
7%
5%
31%
0%
100%

41%
2%
24%
0%
5%
6%
22%
0%
100%

49%
2%
21%
0%
5%
4%
19%
0%
100%

53%
2%
19%
0%
4%
5%
16%
0%
100%

42%
1%
25%
0%
5%
8%
19%
0%
100%

44%
2%
25%
0%
5%
6%
19%
0%
100%

46%
1%
25%
0%
5%
6%
17%
0%
100%

53%
2%
22%
0%
6%
6%
12%
0%
100%

A1- 428GASOLINE
2014

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARYTOTAL
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
TOTAL

1990

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

KEROSENE/JET FUEL
2010
2014
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

9,243
103,513
41,612
154,368

7,395
12,797
27,74147,933

8,191
9,916
19,072
37,17814,14521,03032,076
67,251

15,835
18,56036,41070,805

14,37914,91626,00755,303

16,60018,34632,07667,022

16,26818,05524,67258,995

18,253
22,531
32,50473,28919,51424,47838,14882,14017,255
15,712
27,07360,04017,255
7,527
25,38150,16317,0996,113
28,76551,977

10,900
5,633
18,61235,145

6%
67%
0%
0%
27%
100%

15%
27%
0%
0%
58%
100%

22%
27%
0%
0%
51%
100%

21%
31%
0%
0%
48%
100%

22%
26%
0%
0%
51%
100%

26%
27%
0%
0%
47%
100%

25%
27%
0%
0%
48%
100%

28%
31%
0%
0%
42%
100%

25%
31%
0%
0%
44%
100%

24%
30%
0%
0%
46%
100%

29%
26%
0%
0%
45%
100%

34%
15%
0%
0%
51%
100%

33%
12%
0%
0%
55%
100%

31%
16%
0%
0%
53%
100%

A1- 429

2020

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

35,000

Terajoules

30,000Estimated Diesel Fuel Use in the DPRK, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005,
2008-2010, and 2014-2020
NON-SPECIFIED/OTHERFISHERIESRESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRIALMILITARY
AGRICULTURAL
TRANSPORTELECTRICITY GENERATION

25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 430

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

35,000

Terajoules

30,000Estimated Diesel Fuel Use in the DPRK, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005,
2008-2010, and 2014-2020
NON-SPECIFIED/OTHERFISHERIESRESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRIALMILITARY
AGRICULTURAL
TRANSPORTELECTRICITY GENERATION

25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 431

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 432

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 433

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 434

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 435

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Supply Summary for Electricity: Terawatt-hours
of Gross Generation
GENERATION
HYDRO
HFO-FIREDDIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED
COAL-FIRED
SOLAR AND WINDNUCLEARTOTAL
HYDRO
HFO-FIREDDIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED
COAL-FIRED
SOLAR AND WIND
TOTAL

1990
21.29
1.77
22.94

1996
5.32
1.94
15.58

2000
10.47
0.90
1.89

2005
11.15
0.36
0.08
4.97

2008
11.83
0.63
0.12
4.66

2009
11.87
0.25
0.15
3.97

46.00
46.3%
3.9%
0.0%
49.9%
0.0%
100.0%

22.84
23.3%
8.5%
0.0%
68.2%
0.0%
100.0%

13.26
79.0%
6.8%
0.0%
14.3%
0.0%
100.0%

16.55
67.3%
2.2%
0.5%
30.0%
0.0%
100.0%

17.23
68.6%
3.6%
0.7%
27.0%
0.0%
100.0%

16.24
73.1%
1.6%
0.9%
24.4%
0.0%
100.0%

2010
11.91
0.21
0.22
3.37
0.00
15.71
75.8%
1.3%
1.4%
21.4%
0.0%
100.0%

YEAR
2014
10.57
0.23
0.54
5.86
0.01
17.21
61.4%
1.3%

2015
11.25
0.22
0.84
4.98
0.02
17.31
65.0%
1.3%

2016
11.50
0.22
1.10
5.33
0.03
18.18
63.2%
1.2%

2017
10.37
0.10
0.63
5.23
0.05
16.38
63.3%
0.6%

2018
10.55
0.12
0.63
4.26
0.06
15.62
67.5%
0.7%

2019
10.66
0.12
0.70
4.26
0.08
15.82
67.4%
0.7%

2020
10.74
0.11
0.69
2.51
0.09
14.13
76.0%
0.8%

34.0%
0.1%
100.0%

28.8%
0.1%
100.0%

29.3%
0.2%
100.0%

31.9%
0.3%
100.0%

27.3%
0.4%
100.0%

26.9%
0.5%
100.0%

17.7%
0.6%
100.0%

Gross Generation in the DPRK, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008
through 2010, and 2014 through 2020

Terawatt-hours

50
45

SOLAR AND WIND

40

COAL-FIREDDIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED

35

HFO-FIRED

30

HYDRO

25
20

15
10
5
-

1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 436

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Demand Summary for Electricity: Petajoules
SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMERCIALTOTAL
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL
TOTAL

1990
70
11
11
3
1
14
11
120
58%
10%
9%
2%
0%
12%
9%
100%

1996
24
5
6
1
0
8
6
51
47%
9%
13%
2%
0%
15%
13%
100%

2000
13
3
3
1
0
7
3
31
42%
11%
9%
3%
1%
24%
11%
100%

2005
15
4
4
1
0
9
5
38
39%
9%
10%
4%
1%
23%
14%
100%

2008
15
4
5
1
0
9
5
40
38%
10%
12%
3%
0%
23%
13%
100%

2009
15
4
4
1
0
8
5
37
41%
10%
11%
3%
0%
22%
13%
100%

ELECTRICITY
2010
2014
15
17
4
3
4
3
1
1
0
0
8
8
4
4
37
37
42%
46%
11%
9%
11%
8%
3%
3%
1%
0%
21%
22%
12%
11%
100%
100%

2015
17
4
3
1
0
8
4
38
44%
11%
9%
3%
0%
22%
11%
100%

2016
16
4
4
1
0
9
4
39
43%
11%
9%
3%
1%
22%
11%
100%

2017
14
4
4
1
0
9
4
36
40%
11%
10%
3%
1%
24%
12%
100%

2018
13
4
4
1
0
9
4
35
37%
11%
11%
3%
0%
25%
13%
100%

Estimated Electricity Use by Sector and Year
140

120

Petajoules

100
80

PUBLIC/COMMERCIALMILITARYFISHERIESAGRICULTURALRESIDENTIAL

TRANSPORTINDUSTRIAL

60
40

20
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 437

2019
13
4
4
1
0
9
4
35
38%
11%
11%
3%
0%
25%
13%
100%

2020
10
4
6
1
0
8
3
32
32%
11%
20%
3%
0%
24%
10%
100%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SUMMARY TABLE OF ELECTRICTY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Units: TWh
1990
21.3
1.8
22.9
46.0
(2.4)
(3.4)
(6.6)
33.5
19.5
3.2
3.0
0.7
0.1
3.9
3.0

1996
5.3
1.9
15.6
22.8
(1.2)
(2.8)
(4.6)
14.1
6.7
1.3
1.8
0.4
0.1
2.1
1.8

2000
10.5
0.9
1.9
17.2
(0.0)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(3.5)
8.5
3.6
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
2.1
0.9

2005
11.1
0.4
5.0
16.2
(0.1)
(0.8)
(1.0)
(4.3)
10.4
4.1
1.0
1.1
0.4
0.1
2.4
1.4

2008
11.8
0.6
4.7
16.6
(0.1)
(0.8)
(1.0)
(4.5)
11.1
4.2
1.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
2.5
1.5

2009
11.9
0.3
4.0
16.2
(0.1)
(0.9)
(0.8)
(4.2)
10.4
4.3
1.1
1.1
0.3
0.0
2.3
1.3

2010
11.9
0.2
3.4
15.7
(0.2)
(0.9)
(0.7)
(4.1)
10.1
4.2
1.1
1.1
0.3
0.1
2.1
1.2

YEAR
2014
10.6
0.2
5.9
17.2
(0.2)
(1.5)
(1.1)
(4.3)
10.4
4.8
1.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
2.3
1.1

2015
11.3
0.2
5.0
17.3
(0.1)
(1.7)
(1.0)
(4.3)
10.7
4.7
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.0
2.3
1.2

2016
11.5
0.2
5.3
18.2
(0.2)
(1.8)
(1.0)
(4.4)
10.7
4.6
1.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
2.4
1.2

2017
10.4
0.1
5.2
16.4
(0.3)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(4.1)
10.0
4.0
1.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
2.4
1.2

2018
10.5
0.1
4.3
15.6
(0.3)
(1.0)
(0.8)
(3.9)
9.7
3.6
1.0
1.1
0.3
0.0
2.4
1.2

Estimated DPRK Electricity Use by Sector and Year
40
35

Terawatt-hours

GENERATION
HYDRO
HFO-FIRED
COAL-FIRED
NUCLEARTOTALEXPORTS
COAL PROD.
OWN USELOSSESTOTAL DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMM'L

30
25

PUBLIC/COMM'L

MILITARYFISHERIESAGRICULTURALRESIDENTIAL

TRANSPORTINDUSTRIAL
20
15

10
5

0
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 438

2019
10.7
0.1
4.3
15.8
(0.3)
(1.1)
(0.8)
(3.9)
9.6
3.6
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.0
2.4
1.2

2020
10.7
0.1
2.5
14.1
(0.3)
(0.8)
(0.5)
(3.5)
8.9
2.8
1.0
1.8
0.2
0.0
2.1
0.9

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Demand Summary for Coal and Coke: Petajoules
SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL
NON-ENERGY
TOTAL
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL
NON-ENERGY
TOTAL

1990
672
189
10
1
30
33
14
948
71%
0%
20%
1%
0%
3%
3%
1%
100%

1996
251
122
3
1
25
26
3
431
58%
0%
28%
1%
0%
6%
6%
1%
100%

2000
150
95
3
0
21
16
1
286
52%
0%
33%
1%
0%
7%
5%
0%
100%

2005
150
85
5
0
20
17
2
279
54%
0%
30%
2%
0%
7%
6%
1%
100%

2008
155
74
5
0
18
17
1
272
57%
0%
27%
2%
0%
7%
6%
1%
100%

2009
181
76
5
0
18
17
1
298
61%
0%
25%
2%
0%
6%
6%
0%
100%

COAL AND COKE
2010
2014
2015
176
166
157
77
91
99
5
5
6
0
0
0
18
19
20
17
19
20
1
3
3
294
304
304
60%
55%
52%
0%
0%
0%
26%
30%
32%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
7%
0%
1%
1%
100%
100%
100%

2016
165
107
5
0
20
21
3
322
51%
0%
33%
2%
0%
6%
7%
1%
100%

2017
158
126
5
0
20
23
2
334
47%
0%
38%
1%
0%
6%
7%
1%
100%

2018
155
137
4
0
21
24
1
343
45%
0%
40%
1%
0%
6%
7%
0%
100%

Estimated Coal and Coke Use by Sector and Year
1,000
900
800

Petajoules

700

NON-ENERGY

PUBLIC/COMMERCIALMILITARYFISHERIESAGRICULTURALRESIDENTIAL

TRANSPORTINDUSTRIAL

600
500
400
300
200

100
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A1- 439

2019
155
139
4
0
21
25
1
345
45%
0%
40%
1%
0%
6%
7%
0%
100%

2020
125
141
4
0
17
18
1
306
41%
0%
46%
1%
0%
6%
6%
0%
100%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Supply Summary for Electricity Nominal (Operable and Previously Operable) Capacity (MW),
Estimated Capacity Factors, and Generation in Gigawatt-hours of Gross Generation
YEAR
CAPACITY (MW)
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
HYDRO
4,500
1,250
3,100
4,116
4,245
4,283
4,321
HFO-FIRED
200
200
270
270
270
270
270
DIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED*
100
161
222
282
COAL-FIRED
3,200
3,250
3,350
3,350
3,350
3,350
3,350
SOLAR, WIND, AND TIDAL*
1
NUCLEAR
TOTAL
7,900
4,700
6,720
7,836
8,025
8,125
8,224
ESTIMATED CAPACITY FACTORS (%)
HYDRO
54.0%
48.6%
38.6%
30.9%
31.8%
31.6%
31.5%
HFO-FIRED
73.1%
52.0%
6.3%
7.3%
7.3%
7.3%
5.8%
DIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED*
9.7%
8.3%
7.6%
9.0%
COAL-FIRED
83.6%
58.3%
9.0%
17.6%
17.4%
13.8%
11.7%
SOLAR, WIND, AND TIDAL*
6.2%
NUCLEAR
GENERATION (GWH)
HYDRO
21,2895,322
10,474
11,146
11,826
11,866
11,907
HFO-FIRED**
1,772
1,941
897
357
629
255
207
DIESEL/GASOLINE FUELED*
85
116
148
223
COAL-FIRED**
22,93915,580
1,892
4,966
4,661
3,968
3,368
SOLAR, WIND, AND TIDAL*
1
NUCLEARTOTAL **
46,00022,844
13,263
16,555
17,232
16,237
15,705* Some generation probably occurred in these categries prior to the first years in which they are reported, but
capacity and output for previous years have not been estimated.
** HFO-fired generation includes, and coal-fired generation excludes, generation in coal-fired units fueledwith HFO, usually (but not exclusively) as a starter fuel.

A1- 440

2014
4,716
270
805
3,350
12
9,152

2015
4,781
270
1,105
3,350
21
9,527

2016
4,846
70
1,272
3,350
33
9,570

2017
4,921
70
1,370
3,350
48
9,758

2018
4,961
70
1,383
3,350
64
9,828

2019
4,991
70
1,393
3,350
80
9,884

2020
5,011
70
1,395
3,350
88
9,914

25.6%
5.1%
7.7%
20.3%
11.5%

26.8%
5.1%
8.6%
17.3%
11.3%

27.0%
18.3%
9.9%
18.5%
11.3%

23.9%
5.8%
5.3%
18.0%
11.2%

24.1%
5.8%
5.2%
14.8%
11.2%

24.2%
5.8%
5.8%
14.8%
11.2%

24.3%
5.8%
5.6%
8.8%
11.2%

10,568
230
540
5,858
12
17,207

11,250
219
837
4,982
20
17,30911,499
216
1,103
5,333
32
18,182

10,370
101
632
5,227
47
16,377

10,548
117
632
4,259
63
15,61910,664
116
702
4,260
79
15,821

10,744
108
688
2,505
86
14,131Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Refined Products Production and Imports
Production (TJ)
Gasoline--Refined
Kerosene--RefinedDiesel--Refined
HFO--Refined
LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Refined
Imports (TJ)
Gasoline--Imported
Kerosene--Imported
Diesel--Imported
HFO--Imported

1990
25,332
8,849
19,35738,603
17,521

1996
8,183
1,618
8,090
14,760
6,352

2000
3,191
694
3,431
6,288
2,618

2005
4,682
925
4,586
8,395
3,524

2008
4,714
935
4,635
8,485
3,563

2009
4,629
918
4,550
8,329
3,496

2010
5,333
1,218
5,013
9,310
3,956

2014
5,175
1,019
5,053
9,247
3,891

2015
5,769
1,135
5,634
10,307
4,347

2016
6,025
1,180
5,859
10,717
4,523

2017
8,610
1,302
6,468
5,364
5,495

2018
9,612
1,441
7,163
5,913
6,095

2019
9,586
1,441
7,163
5,913
6,095

2020
10,228
1,511
7,512
6,189
6,396

5,275
2,160
12,962
6,224

8,545
518
5,185
24,834

4,791
951
8,221
22,391

1,840
2,031
12,741
5,470

5,089
2,184
8,745
13,253

3,479
1,522
7,790
395

3,649
1,741
9,955
684

4,916
1,593
13,695
349

6,670
2,118
14,943
464

6,434
2,452
19,004
537

4,077
1,363
9,778
157

2,879
785
8,263
30

2,679
864
9,432
80

381
43
5,797
30

LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Imported
Total Gross Supply (TJ)
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

1990
30,607
11,00932,31944,827
17,521

17
1996
16,7282,136
13,27539,594
6,369

5,424
2000
7,983
1,645
11,652
28,679
8,042

1,301
2005
6,522
2,956
17,327
13,865
4,825

388
2008
9,802
3,119
13,381
21,738
3,951

320
2009
8,107
2,440
12,340
8,725
3,816

430
2010
8,983
2,959
14,967
9,994
4,386

1,155
2014
10,091
2,612
18,748
9,596
5,046

1,287
2015
12,4403,253
20,577
10,771
5,634

1,207
2016
12,4593,632
24,862
11,254
5,731

1,169
2017
12,6882,664
16,246
5,520
6,664

1,071
2018
12,491
2,225
15,426
5,943
7,165

1,071
2019
12,266
2,305
16,595
5,994
7,165

379
2020
10,6091,554
13,308
6,219
6,775

Production (Tonnes)
Gasoline--Refined
Kerosene--RefinedDiesel--Refined
HFO--Refined
LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Refined
Imports (Tonnes)
Gasoline--Imported
Kerosene--Imported
Diesel--Imported
HFO--Imported

1990
576,229
204,800
448,000
930,400
413,380

1996
186,141
37,447
187,234
355,745
149,868

2000
72,591
16,072
79,416
151,552
61,7602005
106,512
21,417106,137
202,323
83,1492008
107,223
21,646107,284
204,501
84,066

2009
105,289
21,252
105,311200,753
82,487

2010
121,320
28,192116,011
224,384
93,335

2014
117,717
23,579116,949
222,864
91,803

2015
131,235
26,268130,395
248,412102,565

2016
137,046
27,308135,591
258,285
106,7242017
195,858
30,129149,699
129,278
129,6412018
218,648
33,344
165,775
142,515
143,8012019
218,059
33,344
165,775
142,515
143,8012020
232,652
34,960173,852
149,165
150,914120,000
50,000300,000
150,000

194,378
12,000120,000
598,541

108,991
22,000190,258
539,652

41,84646,994
294,885
131,847

115,755
50,542
202,405
319,409

79,13035,230180,292
9,527

83,01140,295
230,392
16,483111,827
36,869316,961
8,415

151,735
49,014
345,832
11,188146,354
56,751
439,817
12,95392,751
31,537226,299
3,774

65,47818,157
191,244721

60,94720,000218,293
1,940

8,665
1,000
134,157
721

LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Imported
Total Gross Supply (Tonnes)
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

1990
696,229
254,800
748,000
1,080,400
413,380

399
1996
380,519
49,447307,234
954,285
150,268

127,984
2000
181,583
38,072
269,674
691,203
189,743

30,6992005
148,358
68,411
401,022334,169
113,848

9,145
2008
222,979
72,188309,688523,910
93,212

7,552
2009
184,41956,481
285,603210,280
90,03910,146
2010
204,331
68,486
346,403240,867
103,481

27,2492014
229,544
60,448433,910231,280
119,051

30,3702015
282,970
75,283476,227
259,599
132,935

28,481
2016
283,399
84,059575,408271,238
135,205

27,5782017
288,609
61,666375,998
133,052
157,219

25,2602018
284,126
51,501
357,020
143,235
169,061

25,2602019
279,006
53,344
384,068
144,454
169,061

8,932
2020
241,318
35,960308,008
149,885
159,845

Production (Tonnes)
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

1990
576,229
204,800
448,000
930,400
413,380

1996
186,141
37,447
187,234
355,745
149,868

2000
72,591
16,072
79,416
151,552
61,7602005
106,512
21,417106,137
202,323
83,1492008
107,223
21,646107,284
204,501
84,066

2009
105,289
21,252
105,311200,753
82,487

2010
121,320
28,192116,011
224,384
93,335

2014
117,717
23,579116,949
222,864
91,803

2015
131,235
26,268130,395
248,412102,565

2016
137,046
27,308135,591
258,285
106,7242017
195,858
30,129149,699
129,278
129,6412018
218,648
33,344
165,775
142,515
143,8012019
218,059
33,344
165,775
142,515
143,8012020
232,652
34,960173,852
149,165
150,914

Imports (Tonnes)
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

1990
120,000
50,000300,000
150,000-

1996
194,378
12,000120,000
598,541
399

2000
108,991
22,000190,258
539,652
127,984

2005
41,84646,994
294,885
131,847
30,6992008
115,755
50,542
202,405
319,409
9,145

2009
79,13035,230180,292
9,527
7,552

2010
83,01140,295
230,392
16,483
10,146

2014
111,827
36,869316,961
8,415
27,249

2015
151,735
49,014
345,832
11,18830,3702016
146,354
56,751
439,817
12,95328,481

2017
92,751
31,537226,299
3,774
27,5782018
65,47818,157
191,244721
25,2602019
60,94720,000218,293
1,940
25,260

2020
8,665
1,000
134,157721
8,932

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ESTIMATED DPRK REFINERY OUTPUT BY
FUEL, 2017
LPG/Refinery
Gas/NonEnergy
20.4%

Gasoline
30.9%

HFO
20.4%

Kerosene
4.7%
Diesel23.6%

ESTIMATED DPRK REFINERY OUTPUT BY
FUEL, 2018
LPG/Refinery
Gas/NonEnergy
20.4%

Gasoline
31.1%

HFO
20.2%

Kerosene
4.7%

Diesel23.5%

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ESTIMATED DPRK REFINERY OUTPUT BY
FUEL, 2019
LPG/Refinery
Gas/NonEnergy
20.4%

Gasoline
31.0%

HFO
20.3%

Kerosene
4.7%
Diesel23.6%

ESTIMATED DPRK REFINERY OUTPUT BY
FUEL, 2020
LPG/Refinery
Gas/NonEnergy
20.4%

Gasoline
31.4%

HFO
20.1%

Kerosene
4.7%
Diesel23.4%

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Estimated DPRK Petroleum Products Supplies--Refined Domesticallyand Imports

2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000

Tonnes1,400,000

Gasoline--RefinedDiesel--Refined
LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Refined
Kerosene--Imported
HFO--Imported

Kerosene--Refined
HFO--RefinedGasoline--Imported
Diesel--Imported
LPG/Ref Gas/Non-En--Imported

2008

2016

1,200,000
1,000,000

800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
1996

2000

2005

2009

2010

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2014

2015

2017

2018

2019

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Estimated DPRK Petroleum Products Supplies--Imports
1,200,000

Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
HFO
LPG/Refinery Gas/Non-Energy

1,000,000

Tonnes800,000
600,000
400,000

200,000
1990 1996 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Estimates of Cost and Savings of Selected Energy Efficiency Measures

ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: END-USES
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2018 CONSUMPTION
7/7/2020

Sources/Notes:
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.755
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 3Note 4Note 18

Sources/Notes:
Efficiency Improvements in Coal Fired Boilers: Industrial
Coal Use (Fuel) by Industrial Subsector

Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesNon-specified Industry
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

55,184
42,164
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
16,4474,370
445

Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Boilers &Furnaces
33,111
42,164
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
16,447
4,370
445

$
$

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121,933 TJ/yr
37.5%
45,725 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)
7.60 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)347,412,503 ($2019)

1

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Coal Use in Small/Medium Boilers and Furnaces:(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers and furnaces)

Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

103,341
20,407
24,122Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
90%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT
Fract. Savings Potential, Building Envelope Improvements:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

TJ/yr inBoilers &Furnaces
93,007
20,407
24,122

2$$

137,536 TJ/yr
23.0%
31,633 TJ/yr
300 Yuan/(tce/yr)
4.24 /(GJ/yr) ($2010)
134,187,972 ($2019)

$
$

21%
22,572 TJ/yr
213 $/(tce/yr) ($2014)
7.77 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
175,411,541 ($2019)

8, 19
8

12
12

Coal Savings through Solar Water Heat
(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers, furnaces, and rural heating stoves)
Fraction in
TJ/yr inBoilers, Stoves, Boilers, Stoves,
Sector/Subsector
and Furnaces
and Furnaces
Note 5Residential/Urban
103,34190%
93,007
Residential/Rural
33,442
90%
30,098Public/Commercial
20,407100%
20,407
Military Buildings
24,122
100%
24,122Estimated fraction of residential energy used for water heeating
Water heat use per urban household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Water heat use per rural household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Average efficiency of coal use for water heating, all households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, urban households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, rural households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Fraction of coal use for water heating in non-residential buildings
Ultimate potential fraction of urban residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of rural residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of non-residential buildings using solar HW
Total
TJ/yr

1500 kWh2000 kWh55%
9.82 per household
13.09 per household
18.6%
19.5%
10%
35%
50%
50%

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Fraction of water heating coal use displaced in households and non-residential buildings using solar water heaters
80%
Assumption
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/urban
4,848 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/rural
2,345 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, public/commercial
816 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, military buildings
3,377 TJ/yr
TOTAL of above
11,387 TJ/yr
Estimated cost per household of solar water heater$350 per unit
(Based roughly on 2020 costs of solar water heaters in China from Alibaba.com)
Implied capital cost per unit energy savings, residential units (urban)$45 per GJ/yr ($2019)
Assume capital costs for non-residential installations are
75%
of residential costs per unit output, based on generally larger system size and associated economies of scale.
Then capital cost per unit energy savings for non-residential units implied is$33.42 per GJ/yr ($2019)
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$ 140,461,810 ($2019)

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Coal Use in Household cooking and heating stoves:
Residential/Rural Coal Use (TJ)
Residential/Urban Cooking Coal Use

33,442 TJ/yr
10,334 TJ/yr

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN DOMESTIC STOVESFractional Savings Potential, Domestic Stoves:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$

43,776 TJ/yr
25.0%
10,944 TJ/yr
100 Yuan/(tce/yr)
1.41 per GJ/yr ($2019)15,474,836 ($2019)9
9

Electricity Use by Industrial Subsector: Motors and Drives

Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Transportation
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

Total
TJ/yr
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960
3,656
702
24

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
50%
95%
50%
50%
95%
20%
95%
95%
95%
80%
95%
95%
80%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
1,478
2,424
928
400
97
445
183
287
46
1,568
3,474
562
23

$
$

11,915 TJ/yr
15.0%
1,787 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
137,117,550 ($2019)11, 19
11

Electricity Use in Other Sectors: Motors and Drives

Sector/Subsector
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

Total
TJ/yr
3,481
8,795
4,355

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
10%
30%
30%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
348
2,638
1,307

$
$

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4,293 TJ/yr
15.0%
644 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)49,406,749 ($2019)11
11

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Electricity Use: Lighting
Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Industrial (All)Transportation (All)
Residential/Rural
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

12,995
3,656
356
3,481
8,795
4,355

Fraction inLighting
Note 13

Total TJ/yr
Lighting

5%
2.5%
50%
50%
50%
50%

650
91
178
1,740
4,397
2,178

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING

1,918 TJ/yr

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing incandescent)

85.0%

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing fluorescent)
Fraction of households lamps already LEDs
Fraction of remaining lamps that are incandescents
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS

50.0%
40.0% Assumption
50.0% Assumption
777 TJ/yr

Per Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent, controls, and other lighting efficiency upgrades.
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Non-Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

0.011 $/kWh
20.32 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)15,782,823 ($2019)
7,225 TJ/yr
50.0%
3,612 TJ/yr$$

0.025 $/kWh ($2019)46.30 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
167,241,002 ($2019)$$

1,747 TJ/yr
2.58E+08 te-km
15,000 te-km
17,1684,544 TJ/yr
42,40759,57545%70%
43%1,911 TJ/yr
14,000375,322,310 ($2019)

14

14

15

15

Petroleum Fuel Use: Medium-Sized Trucks
Fuel Use: Civilian Transport/Freight (gasoline trucks only)
Freight transported by gasoline trucks
Average tonne-km per vehicle/yr
Implied number of 2.5 tonne trucks in use (civilian):
Fuel Use: Military Trucks (2 1/2 tonne only)
Total number 2 1/2 tonne military trucks in active service
Total number of 2.5 tonne trucks in service:
Fraction of trucks to be replaced
Fraction of energy use represented by trucks replaced
Fractional energy savings by replacing trucks
TOTAL ENERGY SAVED
Cost per truck to replace
TOTAL COST OF NEW TRUCKS

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Estimate of Residential Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Residential Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseUrban
Rural
Lighting
50.0%
50.0% As assumed above
Space and Water Heating
5.4%
1.3% Assumption based roughly on 2008 Census results (Note 21 )Motors and Drives
10.0%
0.0% Urban as assumed above
Air Conditioning
1.1%
0.0% Rough assumption--urban elites only (Note 20 )Other End-uses
33.5%
48.7% Remainder; rural roughly consistent with Unhari survey results.

Estimate of Agricultural Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Agricultural Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Field
Operations

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of FIsheries Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Fisheries Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Large Ships

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Collectives/Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of Military Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Military Electricity Used in Each Subsector)

End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Military
Manufacturing

5.0%
15.0%
80.0%

Military Buildings
and Other

50.0% As assumed above
20.0% Calculated by difference
30.0% As assumed above

Estimate of Public/Commercial Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Electricity Used in Sector)
End UseFractionLighting
50.0% As assumed above
Other End Uses
10.0% Calculated by difference
Motors and Drives
20.0% As assumed above, less
10% assumed used in air conditioning/fansSpace and Water Heating
10.0%
Air Conditioning
10.0%

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Sources/Notes:
1 Total coal use shown here does not include coal used as a non-energy feedstock in carbide production.
2 Assumes 10 percent or less of urban coal use is burned in individual cook ing stoves
3 1990 Value from Microsoft Encarta, 1994.
4 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
5 End-use fractions are rough assumptions
6 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers & furnaces (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 50% to 65 or 70%, plus additionalsavings from other measures. 50% initial (existing boiler) efficiency estimate from document in authors' files [R1].
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies:
M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 37.5%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
7 Assumes (based on sources in 6) 8% increase in efficiency from microprocessor controls at investment of1200 Y/tce-yr, 10% increase for insulation of piping (and similar furnace improvements) at 412 Y/tce-yr,
and 12% increase for boiler and furnace rennovation at 200 Y/tce-yr.
Although the values above come from a reference that is relatively old, a more recent reference by authors in China suggeststhat the costs of saved energy for energy efficiency measures applied to boilers in China based on more recent
data may be similar. The article "Cost-effectiveness Analysis to Improve China's Coal-fired Industrial Boiler", byManzhi Liu, Bo Shen, Yafeng Han, Lynn Price, and Mingchao Xu, Energy Procedia, 5 (2015), pp 1549 – 1554,
available as doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.330 , although it incorporates coal price as a factor in the calculationof the levelized cost of energy savings, lists measures (excluding fuel swicthing measures) that together can saveon the order of 40 percent of initial coal use (Nautilus estimate) at an average weighted cost that appears to bea small fraction of the cost of coal in China, though it is difficult to determine an exact comparison of costs because
the authors do not provide all of the underlying data for their calculations.
8 Assumes (based roughly on sources in 6) that a 15% efficiency increase with general boiler rennovations, startingfrom an average efficiency of 50%, is available for an investment of 250 Y/(tce/yr) (20 percent higher than value
estimated for industrial boilers in Levine et al).
9 Various estimates place the efficiency of chinese coal stoves/heaters at anywhere from 20 to 50 percent.
We have assumed that efficiency measures can increase the thermal efficiency of individual rural stove/heaters
and urban stoves from ave. of 30% to 40%, for a 25% reduction in coal use. Doc. in authors' files [R1] cites
an estimated DPRK residential coal-fired heating stove efficiency of 30%, and cook ing stove efficiency of 20%.
Efficiency investment of 100 Y/tce for domestic coal burning improvements from Levine et al (1992--see note 6).
It is not clear exactly which measures these improvements include; lik ely candidates include coal briquetting
and stove technology improvements.
10 Values are rough estimates. By way of comparison, 65 percent of the electricity used in the entire Chinese
economy has been estimated to be consumed in electric motors (Sathaye, 1992).

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11 Assumes (based on Chinese experience) that motors can be upgraded from an average efficiency of 75% toan efficiency of 88% (the latter is close to standard US motors) at a (per unit) cost of 0.1 Y/k Wh.
Costs and efficiency improvements from Sathaye, 1992. Note that other improvements such as variable speed
electronic drives, improved valving and gearing, piping retrofits represent substantial additional savings potential.
The 2011 UNIDO document Energy efficiency in electric motor systems:Technology, saving potentials andpolicy options for developing countries includes a number of examples of motor and drive effiiciency improvements
in China, India, the EU, the US, and elsewhere that show payback periods on the order of two years or less, which would
be consistent with (possibly less than) the costs shown in the older Sathaye document. The UNIDO document,(United Nations Industrial Development Organization) was authored by Tobias Fleiter and Wolfgang Eichhammer,
and is available as https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4818324/download/Energy%20efficiency%20in%20electric%20motor%20systems%20-%20Technology,%20saving%20potentials%20and%20policy%20options%20for%20developing%20countries.
12 In our initial estimate, based on Chinese studies, assumes a 20% increase in thermal performance through two measures:a 30mm perlite cement mortar coat on inside of walls plus double glazing. Costs based on estimated
Payback of 2-3 years and mark et coal price of 110Y/tce. Source: S. Lang et al, "Energy Conservation
Standards for Spare Heating in Chinese Residential Buildings", 1992, LBL. Note that these two simple
measures do not begin to exhaust the cost effective measures available for building shell improvements. Other
estimates based on the Chinese situation show that 30 percent improvements in building energy efficiency are
possible for a modest 5% increase in building costs. (Source: "An Overview of Energy Demand andSupply in China", F. Liu et al, 1992 (LBL).)A more recent (2014) study, "Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of k ey energy
efficiency technologies in China‫׳‬s building sector to 2030", by He Xiao, Qingpeng Wei, and Hailin Wang,
Energy Policy Volume 69, June 2014, Pages 92-105, available as https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.021, includes ananalysis of 34 building energy improvement technologies that provide an aggregate
17% savings inprimary energy use, a total of
229 Mtce in 2030, and CO2e savings of499.8 million tonnes by the same
year, at an average cost of$
19.50 per tonne CO2e. This implies a cost of saved energy of$
42.56
per tce. We expect that the cost per unit of saved energy for DPRK buildings will lik ely be lower, and savings higher,
due to the lik ely better energy efficiency performance of average Chinese buildings versus average DPRK buildings, andlower labor rates in the DPRK. We assume that savings are
25% higher than in thisexample, and unit costs are
25% lower. It is probable that an aggressive building energy efficiency program could
reduce DPRK building energy use much further over time (the same is lik ely true in China).
13 Rough estimates. For comparison, lighting comprises about 28% of household electricity use in
Thailand, and 33% in the FSU, but in both cases use of household appliances, including cooling, refrigeration,and electric water and space heating, probably account for a larger fraction of energy use than in DPRK homes.
Nautilus' 1998 rural energy survey suggested that lighting comprised over 50 percent of total electricity use in thehouseholds in one rural village.

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14 Assumes that 50% of residential lighting energy is currently used in incandescent bulbs, that light-emitting diode (LED)bulbs save 85% of the energy of incandescent bulbs (and 50% of the energy of compact fluorescent bulbs (CFLs) or
fluorescent tube lighting, and that LEDs can be used to replace incandescent or fluorescent bulbs
for all existing residential incandescent or fluorescent bulb lighting use. An earlier version of this analysis
used costs based on Sathaye, 1992, andbased on setting up CFL factory in China at an investment cost of $5M to produces 3 million CFLs
per year at roughly 6.9Y/unit. Extensive use of LEDs may require that DPRK the power grid be upgraded
to reduce voltage fluctuations and improve power factors (or replaced by a series of mini-grids).
An addendum to this earlier estimate is that the
DPRK apparently has placed CFLs, reportedly made in the DPRK, in virtually all DPRK households
during approximately 2005 - 2006. The DPRK reportedly deployed both imported bulbs, including
bulbs made by Phillips, but over time have developed DPRK-based manufacturing. News of this program isbased on a report provided by the DPRK delegation attending the 2006 "Asian Energy Security" work shop
organized by Nautilus with EETC of Tsinghua University, Beijing (November, 2006).
To estimate costs of saved energy for the current analysis, we assume two simple replacements:
The first replaces a 40 W DPRK incandescent bulb with a 5 W LED bulb, with annual usage of
1000
hours (about 3 hours daily). We assume a bulb cost of$1 , and a bulb lifetime of20000 hours. Wholesale costs for similar bulbs made in China are shown on Alibaba.com at$0.15 to $0.40 each, so we assume a retail cost of $1 per bulb is quite possible. Listed lifetimes for some bulbs are
longer. With a (consumer) discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the bulb, ignoring saved
O&M costs and the cost of the bulb being replaced, would be$0.13 per year to save
35 kWh, for a levelized cost of saved energy (CSE) of$ 0.0038 per kWh. Similarly,
a 13 W LED tube lamp fixture (90 cm) replacing a 30 W fluorescent fixture is available on Alibaba for a cost ofaround $1.6 per fixture (which includes both the fixture and the lamp). Again assuming no credit for avoided O&M
or existing bulbs/fixtures, and assuming a retail fixture cost in the DPRK of$
3.00 each, a lifetime of20000 hours, and annual usage of1500 hours per year, and a discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the fixture would be$0.46 per year to save
25.5 k Wh, or $ 0.0181 per kWh. Averaging these two cases yields a CSE of$
0.011
per k Wh, which we use as a rough estimate for residential lighting improvements. In practice, factoring in net savings in O&M
costs and the value of avoided (base case) light bulb purchases, these costs are lik ely much lower,
and probably negative.
15 In a 2015 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) document, New Horizons forEnergy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030 , commercial lighting energy
efficiency options are provided with costs on the order of 5 to 10 cents per k Wh in the United States.
It is highly lik ely that opportunities in the DPRK will be even more cost-effective, because buildings on average will
start from a much lower base of efficiency, and because of the lower labor costs in the DPRK, although it is lik ely thatlighting efficiency improvements will be accompanied by upgrades in the lumens provided as well. We
assume an average of$0.025 per kWh as an average cost of saved energy for lighting improvementsin the public/commercial, military, and industrial sectors in the DPRK. This is lik ely a substantial over-estimate, given thelong lifetime of typical LED lighting bulbs and systems. ACEEE document prepared by
Dan York , Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly,
dated September 2015, Report Number U1507, and available
as https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/u1507.pdf.
This document includes an example with savings of 65 percent covering 68 percent of lighting end-uses. We assume
average lighting energy savings of 50 percent.
16 Estimated based on our estimates for the fuel economy of 2 1/2 tonne truck s in the DPRK military and quoted
estimate from US Isuzu truck vendor for average fuel economy of new 2 1/2 tonne Isuzu (diesel) truck (11miles per gallon). Adjustment has been made for higher fuel energy content of diesel (vs. gasoline).
17 Approximate cost of new truck from China, including roughly estimated taxes and shipping costs.
See, for example, the diesel "Dongfeng" truck s described on Alibaba here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/4X2-wheel-drive-3-5-tons_60714507616.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.93.28d138f2PRkKGF
and gasoline-fueled "FOTON" brand units here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/New-China-5-ton-mini-truck_60642742600.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.84.287b43a48AOfyp
But note that truck s come in many configurations, sizes, and thus costs.

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18 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
19 The savings figures shown here may well be conservative (low) for DPRK conditions. In his presentation"Energy Efficiency Activities in the DPRK and Opportunities for Rationalization of Energy Use", prepared
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Prof. Jan Jasiewicz notes the results of energy audits in industrial installations in the
DPRK where potential savings were found to be between 15 and 60 percent, with payback times (presumably undermark et prices for energy commodities) of less than three years. Although a number of years havepassed since then, we assume that many of the DPRK's boilers and furnaces have not been significantly updated,
and thus the difference between the efficiencies of existing and modern units remain, on average, at about
this level.
20 As a rough calculation, assume
1.5 kW an average of10500 MWh/yr or about
DPRK urban electricity use in 2018.

10000 elite households using a room air conditioner rated at
700 full-time hours per year. This would imply usage of37800 GJ per year, or about
1.1%
of estimated

21 The DPRK's 2008 Census lists the following data for fraction of households with electric space heating by type
Urban
Rural
Electronic heating system*
1.00%
0.22%
Electronic heating system with others*
1.27%
0.45%
Total Households
3,579,626
2,307,845*Note: "Electronic" probably means "Electrical", likely mostly portable or fixed resistance heating devices.
If we assume the following about electric heating in each sector (average of both types of "electronic" heating)
Urban
Rural
Average Hours full-time equivalent use/yr
500
100 Rural especially limited by electricity supplies.
Average capacity (k W)
1.50
1.50
Implied MWh/yr electricity use
60,7302,304
Fraction of estimated subsectoral MWh
5.40%
1.33%
22 Very rough estimate incorporating the observation that many truck s have been imported into the DPRK in recent
years, but that many of the older 2.5 tonne truck s are doubtless still on the road. The assumption that these truck s
to be replaced account for 70 percent of fuel use tak es into account A) that many of the older truck s in the estimatedtruck fleet may be inoperable much of the time, and B) that new truck s have been increasingly used in recent years.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: END-USES
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2019 CONSUMPTION
7/8/2020

Sources/Notes:
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.755
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 3Note 4Note 18

Sources/Notes:
Efficiency Improvements in Coal Fired Boilers: Industrial
Coal Use (Fuel) by Industrial Subsector

Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesNon-specified Industry
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

55,18442,177
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
16,447
3,826
445

Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Boilers &Furnaces
33,111
42,177
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
16,447
3,826
445

$
$

A1- 458

121,403 TJ/yr
37.5%
45,526 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)
7.60 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)345,902,203 ($2019)

1

6, 19
7

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal Use in Small/Medium Boilers and Furnaces:(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers and furnaces)

Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

105,137
20,407
24,515Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
90%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT
Fract. Savings Potential, Building Envelope Improvements:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

TJ/yr inBoilers &Furnaces
94,623
20,407
24,5152$$

139,545 TJ/yr
23.0%
32,095 TJ/yr
300 Yuan/(tce/yr)
4.24 /(GJ/yr) ($2010)
136,148,013 ($2019)

$
$

21%
22,902 TJ/yr
213 $/(tce/yr) ($2014)
7.77 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
177,973,722 ($2019)

8, 19
8

12
12

Coal Savings through Solar Water Heat
(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers, furnaces, and rural heating stoves)
Fraction in
TJ/yr inBoilers, Stoves, Boilers, Stoves,
Sector/Subsector
and Furnaces
and Furnaces
Note 5Residential/Urban
105,137
90%
94,623
Residential/Rural
33,92490%
30,531
Public/Commercial
20,407100%
20,407
Military Buildings
24,515100%
24,515
Estimated fraction of residential energy used for water heeating
Water heat use per urban household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Water heat use per rural household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Average efficiency of coal use for water heating, all households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, urban households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, rural households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Fraction of coal use for water heating in non-residential buildings
Ultimate potential fraction of urban residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of rural residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of non-residential buildings using solar HW
Total
TJ/yr

1500 kWh2000 kWh55%
9.82 per household
13.09 per household
18.6%
19.5%
10%
35%
50%
50%

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Fraction of water heating coal use displaced in households and non-residential buildings using solar water heaters
80%
Assumption
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/urban
4,932 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/rural
2,379 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, public/commercial
816 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, military buildings
3,432 TJ/yr
TOTAL of above
11,560 TJ/yr
Estimated cost per household of solar water heater$350 per unit
(Based roughly on 2020 costs of solar water heaters in China from Alibaba.com)
Implied capital cost per unit energy savings, residential units (urban)$45 per GJ/yr ($2019)
Assume capital costs for non-residential installations are
75%
of residential costs per unit output, based on generally larger system size and associated economies of scale.
Then capital cost per unit energy savings for non-residential units implied is$33.42 per GJ/yr ($2019)
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$ 142,307,337 ($2019)

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Coal Use in Household cooking and heating stoves:
Residential/Rural Coal Use (TJ)
Residential/Urban Cooking Coal Use

33,924 TJ/yr
10,514 TJ/yr

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN DOMESTIC STOVESFractional Savings Potential, Domestic Stoves:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$

44,437 TJ/yr
25.0%
11,109 TJ/yr
100 Yuan/(tce/yr)
1.41 per GJ/yr ($2019)15,708,553 ($2019)9
9

Electricity Use by Industrial Subsector: Motors and Drives

Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Transportation
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

Total
TJ/yr
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960
3,661
615
24

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
50%
95%
50%
50%
95%
20%
95%
95%
95%
80%
95%
95%
80%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
1,478
2,424
928
400
97
445
183
287
46
1,568
3,478
492
23

$
$

11,849 TJ/yr
15.0%
1,777 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
136,366,995 ($2019)11, 19
11

Electricity Use in Other Sectors: Motors and Drives

Sector/Subsector
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

Total
TJ/yr
3,308
8,795
4,387

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
10%
30%
30%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
331
2,638
1,316

$
$

A1- 460

4,285 TJ/yr
15.0%
643 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)49,316,445 ($2019)11
11

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Electricity Use: Lighting
Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Industrial (All)Transportation (All)
Residential/Rural
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

12,995
3,661
351
3,308
8,795
4,387

Fraction inLighting
Note 13

Total TJ/yr
Lighting

5%
2.5%
50%
50%
50%
50%

650
92
175
1,654
4,397
2,193

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING

1,829 TJ/yr

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing incandescent)

85.0%

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing fluorescent)
Fraction of households lamps already LEDs
Fraction of remaining lamps that are incandescents
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS

50.0%
40.0% Assumption
50.0% Assumption
741 TJ/yr

Per Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent, controls, and other lighting efficiency upgrades.
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Non-Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

0.011 $/kWh
20.32 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)15,050,791 ($2019)7,241 TJ/yr
50.0%
3,620 TJ/yr$$

0.025 $/kWh ($2019)46.30 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
167,605,873 ($2019)$$

1,662 TJ/yr
2.45E+08 te-km
15,000 te-km
16,3304,558 TJ/yr
42,534
58,86445%70%
43%
1,889 TJ/yr
14,000370,842,501 ($2019)

14

14

15

15

Petroleum Fuel Use: Medium-Sized Trucks
Fuel Use: Civilian Transport/Freight (gasoline trucks only)
Freight transported by gasoline trucks
Average tonne-km per vehicle/yr
Implied number of 2.5 tonne trucks in use (civilian):
Fuel Use: Military Trucks (2 1/2 tonne only)
Total number 2 1/2 tonne military trucks in active service
Total number of 2.5 tonne trucks in service:
Fraction of trucks to be replaced
Fraction of energy use represented by trucks replaced
Fractional energy savings by replacing trucks
TOTAL ENERGY SAVED
Cost per truck to replace
TOTAL COST OF NEW TRUCKS

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Rough Est.

22
22
16
17

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of Residential Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Residential Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseUrban
Rural
Lighting
50.0%
50.0% As assumed above
Space and Water Heating
5.4%
1.3% Assumption based roughly on 2008 Census results (Note 21 )Motors and Drives
10.0%
0.0% Urban as assumed above
Air Conditioning
1.1%
0.0% Rough assumption--urban elites only (Note 20 )Other End-uses
33.5%
48.7% Remainder; rural roughly consistent with Unhari survey results.

Estimate of Agricultural Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Agricultural Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Field
Operations

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of FIsheries Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Fisheries Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Large Ships

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Collectives/Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of Military Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Military Electricity Used in Each Subsector)

End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Military
Manufacturing

5.0%
15.0%
80.0%

Military Buildings
and Other

50.0% As assumed above
20.0% Calculated by difference
30.0% As assumed above

Estimate of Public/Commercial Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Electricity Used in Sector)
End UseFractionLighting
50.0% As assumed above
Other End Uses
10.0% Calculated by difference
Motors and Drives
20.0% As assumed above, less
10% assumed used in air conditioning/fansSpace and Water Heating
10.0%
Air Conditioning
10.0%

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Sources/Notes:
1 Total coal use shown here does not include coal used as a non-energy feedstock in carbide production.
2 Assumes 10 percent or less of urban coal use is burned in individual cook ing stoves
3 1990 Value from Microsoft Encarta, 1994.
4 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
5 End-use fractions are rough assumptions
6 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers & furnaces (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 50% to 65 or 70%, plus additionalsavings from other measures. 50% initial (existing boiler) efficiency estimate from document in authors' files [R1].
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies:
M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 37.5%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
7 Assumes (based on sources in 6) 8% increase in efficiency from microprocessor controls at investment of1200 Y/tce-yr, 10% increase for insulation of piping (and similar furnace improvements) at 412 Y/tce-yr,
and 12% increase for boiler and furnace rennovation at 200 Y/tce-yr.
Although the values above come from a reference that is relatively old, a more recent reference by authors in China suggeststhat the costs of saved energy for energy efficiency measures applied to boilers in China based on more recent
data may be similar. The article "Cost-effectiveness Analysis to Improve China's Coal-fired Industrial Boiler", byManzhi Liu, Bo Shen, Yafeng Han, Lynn Price, and Mingchao Xu, Energy Procedia, 5 (2015), pp 1549 – 1554,
available as doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.330 , although it incorporates coal price as a factor in the calculationof the levelized cost of energy savings, lists measures (excluding fuel swicthing measures) that together can saveon the order of 40 percent of initial coal use (Nautilus estimate) at an average weighted cost that appears to bea small fraction of the cost of coal in China, though it is difficult to determine an exact comparison of costs because
the authors do not provide all of the underlying data for their calculations.
8 Assumes (based roughly on sources in 6) that a 15% efficiency increase with general boiler rennovations, startingfrom an average efficiency of 50%, is available for an investment of 250 Y/(tce/yr) (20 percent higher than value
estimated for industrial boilers in Levine et al).
9 Various estimates place the efficiency of chinese coal stoves/heaters at anywhere from 20 to 50 percent.
We have assumed that efficiency measures can increase the thermal efficiency of individual rural stove/heaters
and urban stoves from ave. of 30% to 40%, for a 25% reduction in coal use. Doc. in authors' files [R1] cites
an estimated DPRK residential coal-fired heating stove efficiency of 30%, and cook ing stove efficiency of 20%.
Efficiency investment of 100 Y/tce for domestic coal burning improvements from Levine et al (1992--see note 6).
It is not clear exactly which measures these improvements include; lik ely candidates include coal briquetting
and stove technology improvements.
10 Values are rough estimates. By way of comparison, 65 percent of the electricity used in the entire Chinese
economy has been estimated to be consumed in electric motors (Sathaye, 1992).
11 Assumes (based on Chinese experience) that motors can be upgraded from an average efficiency of 75% toan efficiency of 88% (the latter is close to standard US motors) at a (per unit) cost of 0.1 Y/k Wh.
Costs and efficiency improvements from Sathaye, 1992. Note that other improvements such as variable speed
electronic drives, improved valving and gearing, piping retrofits represent substantial additional savings potential.
The 2011 UNIDO document Energy efficiency in electric motor systems:Technology, saving potentials andpolicy options for developing countries includes a number of examples of motor and drive effiiciency improvements
in China, India, the EU, the US, and elsewhere that show payback periods on the order of two years or less, which would
be consistent with (possibly less than) the costs shown in the older Sathaye document. The UNIDO document,(United Nations Industrial Development Organization) was authored by Tobias Fleiter and Wolfgang Eichhammer,
and is available as https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4818324/download/Energy%20efficiency%20in%20electric%20motor%20systems%20-%20Technology,%20saving%20potentials%20and%20policy%20options%20for%20developing%20countries.

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12 In our initial estimate, based on Chinese studies, assumes a 20% increase in thermal performance through two measures:a 30mm perlite cement mortar coat on inside of walls plus double glazing. Costs based on estimated
Payback of 2-3 years and mark et coal price of 110Y/tce. Source: S. Lang et al, "Energy Conservation
Standards for Spare Heating in Chinese Residential Buildings", 1992, LBL. Note that these two simple
measures do not begin to exhaust the cost effective measures available for building shell improvements. Other
estimates based on the Chinese situation show that 30 percent improvements in building energy efficiency are
possible for a modest 5% increase in building costs. (Source: "An Overview of Energy Demand andSupply in China", F. Liu et al, 1992 (LBL).)A more recent (2014) study, "Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of k ey energy
efficiency technologies in China‫׳‬s building sector to 2030", by He Xiao, Qingpeng Wei, and Hailin Wang,
Energy Policy Volume 69, June 2014, Pages 92-105, available as https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.021, includes ananalysis of 34 building energy improvement technologies that provide an aggregate
17% savings inprimary energy use, a total of
229 Mtce in 2030, and CO2e savings of499.8 million tonnes by the same
year, at an average cost of$
19.50 per tonne CO2e. This implies a cost of saved energy of$
42.56
per tce. We expect that the cost per unit of saved energy for DPRK buildings will lik ely be lower, and savings higher,
due to the lik ely better energy efficiency performance of average Chinese buildings versus average DPRK buildings, andlower labor rates in the DPRK. We assume that savings are
25% higher than in thisexample, and unit costs are
25% lower. It is probable that an aggressive building energy efficiency program could
reduce DPRK building energy use much further over time (the same is lik ely true in China).
13 Rough estimates. For comparison, lighting comprises about 28% of household electricity use in
Thailand, and 33% in the FSU, but in both cases use of household appliances, including cooling, refrigeration,and electric water and space heating, probably account for a larger fraction of energy use than in DPRK homes.
Nautilus' 1998 rural energy survey suggested that lighting comprised over 50 percent of total electricity use in thehouseholds in one rural village.
14 Assumes that 50% of residential lighting energy is currently used in incandescent bulbs, that light-emitting diode (LED)bulbs save 85% of the energy of incandescent bulbs (and 50% of the energy of compact fluorescent bulbs (CFLs) or
fluorescent tube lighting, and that LEDs can be used to replace incandescent or fluorescent bulbs
for all existing residential incandescent or fluorescent bulb lighting use. An earlier version of this analysis
used costs based on Sathaye, 1992, andbased on setting up CFL factory in China at an investment cost of $5M to produces 3 million CFLs
per year at roughly 6.9Y/unit. Extensive use of LEDs may require that DPRK the power grid be upgraded
to reduce voltage fluctuations and improve power factors (or replaced by a series of mini-grids).
An addendum to this earlier estimate is that the
DPRK apparently has placed CFLs, reportedly made in the DPRK, in virtually all DPRK households
during approximately 2005 - 2006. The DPRK reportedly deployed both imported bulbs, including
bulbs made by Phillips, but over time have developed DPRK-based manufacturing. News of this program isbased on a report provided by the DPRK delegation attending the 2006 "Asian Energy Security" work shop
organized by Nautilus with EETC of Tsinghua University, Beijing (November, 2006).
To estimate costs of saved energy for the current analysis, we assume two simple replacements:
The first replaces a 40 W DPRK incandescent bulb with a 5 W LED bulb, with annual usage of
1000
hours (about 3 hours daily). We assume a bulb cost of$1 , and a bulb lifetime of20000 hours. Wholesale costs for similar bulbs made in China are shown on Alibaba.com at$0.15 to $0.40 each, so we assume a retail cost of $1 per bulb is quite possible. Listed lifetimes for some bulbs are
longer. With a (consumer) discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the bulb, ignoring saved
O&M costs and the cost of the bulb being replaced, would be$0.13 per year to save
35 kWh, for a levelized cost of saved energy (CSE) of$ 0.0038 per kWh. Similarly,
a 13 W LED tube lamp fixture (90 cm) replacing a 30 W fluorescent fixture is available on Alibaba for a cost ofaround $1.6 per fixture (which includes both the fixture and the lamp). Again assuming no credit for avoided O&M
or existing bulbs/fixtures, and assuming a retail fixture cost in the DPRK of$
3.00 each, a lifetime of20000 hours, and annual usage of1500 hours per year, and a discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the fixture would be$0.46 per year to save
25.5 k Wh, or $ 0.0181 per kWh. Averaging these two cases yields a CSE of$
0.011
per k Wh, which we use as a rough estimate for residential lighting improvements. In practice, factoring in net savings in O&M
costs and the value of avoided (base case) light bulb purchases, these costs are lik ely much lower,
and probably negative.

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15 In a 2015 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) document, New Horizons forEnergy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030 , commercial lighting energy
efficiency options are provided with costs on the order of 5 to 10 cents per k Wh in the United States.
It is highly lik ely that opportunities in the DPRK will be even more cost-effective, because buildings on average will
start from a much lower base of efficiency, and because of the lower labor costs in the DPRK, although it is lik ely thatlighting efficiency improvements will be accompanied by upgrades in the lumens provided as well. We
assume an average of$0.025 per kWh as an average cost of saved energy for lighting improvementsin the public/commercial, military, and industrial sectors in the DPRK. This is lik ely a substantial over-estimate, given thelong lifetime of typical LED lighting bulbs and systems. ACEEE document prepared by
Dan York , Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly,
dated September 2015, Report Number U1507, and available
as https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/u1507.pdf.
This document includes an example with savings of 65 percent covering 68 percent of lighting end-uses. We assume
average lighting energy savings of 50 percent.
16 Estimated based on our estimates for the fuel economy of 2 1/2 tonne truck s in the DPRK military and quoted
estimate from US Isuzu truck vendor for average fuel economy of new 2 1/2 tonne Isuzu (diesel) truck (11miles per gallon). Adjustment has been made for higher fuel energy content of diesel (vs. gasoline).
17 Approximate cost of new truck from China, including roughly estimated taxes and shipping costs.
See, for example, the diesel "Dongfeng" truck s described on Alibaba here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/4X2-wheel-drive-3-5-tons_60714507616.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.93.28d138f2PRkKGF
and gasoline-fueled "FOTON" brand units here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/New-China-5-ton-mini-truck_60642742600.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.84.287b43a48AOfyp
But note that truck s come in many configurations, sizes, and thus costs.
18 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
19 The savings figures shown here may well be conservative (low) for DPRK conditions. In his presentation"Energy Efficiency Activities in the DPRK and Opportunities for Rationalization of Energy Use", prepared
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Prof. Jan Jasiewicz notes the results of energy audits in industrial installations in the
DPRK where potential savings were found to be between 15 and 60 percent, with payback times (presumably undermark et prices for energy commodities) of less than three years. Although a number of years havepassed since then, we assume that many of the DPRK's boilers and furnaces have not been significantly updated,
and thus the difference between the efficiencies of existing and modern units remain, on average, at about
this level.
20 As a rough calculation, assume
1.5 kW an average of10500 MWh/yr or about
DPRK urban electricity use in 2018.

10000 elite households using a room air conditioner rated at
700 full-time hours per year. This would imply usage of37800 GJ per year, or about
1.1%
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21 The DPRK's 2008 Census lists the following data for fraction of households with electric space heating by type
Urban
Rural
Electronic heating system*
1.00%
0.22%
Electronic heating system with others*
1.27%
0.45%
Total Households
3,579,626
2,307,845*Note: "Electronic" probably means "Electrical", likely mostly portable or fixed resistance heating devices.
If we assume the following about electric heating in each sector (average of both types of "electronic" heating)
Urban
Rural
Average Hours full-time equivalent use/yr
500
100 Rural especially limited by electricity supplies.
Average capacity (k W)
1.50
1.50
Implied MWh/yr electricity use
60,7302,304
Fraction of estimated subsectoral MWh
5.40%
1.33%
22 Very rough estimate incorporating the observation that many truck s have been imported into the DPRK in recent
years, but that many of the older 2.5 tonne truck s are doubtless still on the road. The assumption that these truck s
to be replaced account for 70 percent of fuel use tak es into account A) that many of the older truck s in the estimatedtruck fleet may be inoperable much of the time, and B) that new truck s have been increasingly used in recent years.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: END-USES
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2020 CONSUMPTION
7/8/2020

Sources/Notes:
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.755
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 3Note 4Note 18

Sources/Notes:
Efficiency Improvements in Coal Fired Boilers: Industrial
Coal Use (Fuel) by Industrial Subsector

Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesNon-specified Industry
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

47,06932,188
1,179
986
354
9,654
3,810
2,586
16,447
3,629
223

Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Boilers &Furnaces
28,24132,188
1,179
986
354
9,654
3,810
2,586
16,447
3,629
223

$
$

A1- 467

99,298 TJ/yr
37.5%
37,237 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)
7.60 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)282,918,981 ($2019)

1

6, 19
7

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal Use in Small/Medium Boilers and Furnaces:(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers and furnaces)

Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

106,977
17,085
17,682Fraction in
Boilers &Furnaces
Note 5
90%
100%
100%

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN BOILERS AND FURNACES
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers and Furnaces:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers and Furnaces
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT
Fract. Savings Potential, Building Envelope Improvements:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Building Envelope Improvements:
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

TJ/yr inBoilers &Furnaces
96,27917,085
17,6822$$

131,046 TJ/yr
23.0%
30,141 TJ/yr
300 Yuan/(tce/yr)
4.24 /(GJ/yr) ($2010)
127,855,969 ($2019)

$
$

21%
21,507 TJ/yr
213 $/(tce/yr) ($2014)
7.77 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
167,134,299 ($2019)

8, 19
8

12
12

Coal Savings through Solar Water Heat
(Assumes that essentially all coal use is in boilers, furnaces, and rural heating stoves)
Fraction in
TJ/yr inBoilers, Stoves, Boilers, Stoves,
Sector/Subsector
and Furnaces
and Furnaces
Note 5Residential/Urban
106,97790%
96,279Residential/Rural
34,41790%
30,975
Public/Commercial
17,085100%
17,085
Military Buildings
17,682100%
17,682Estimated fraction of residential energy used for water heeating
Water heat use per urban household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Water heat use per rural household, 1990, (delivered electricity equivalent)
Average efficiency of coal use for water heating, all households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, urban households
Implied GJ/yr coal use for water heat, rural households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Implied fraction of coal use for water heating, urban households
Fraction of coal use for water heating in non-residential buildings
Ultimate potential fraction of urban residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of rural residential units using solar HW
Ultimate potential fraction of non-residential buildings using solar HW
Total
TJ/yr

1500 kWh2000 kWh55%
9.82 per household
13.09 per household
18.6%
19.5%
10%
35%
50%
50%

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Assumption
Assumption
Assumption
Assumption

Fraction of water heating coal use displaced in households and non-residential buildings using solar water heaters
80%
Assumption
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/urban
5,019 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, residential/rural
2,414 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, public/commercial
683 TJ/yr
Potential coal savings from solar water heat, military buildings
2,475 TJ/yr
TOTAL of above
10,591 TJ/yr
Estimated cost per household of solar water heater$350 per unit
(Based roughly on 2020 costs of solar water heaters in China from Alibaba.com)
Implied capital cost per unit energy savings, residential units (urban)$45 per GJ/yr ($2019)
Assume capital costs for non-residential installations are
75%
of residential costs per unit output, based on generally larger system size and associated economies of scale.
Then capital cost per unit energy savings for non-residential units implied is$33.42 per GJ/yr ($2019)
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$ 105,900,591 ($2019)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Coal Use in Household cooking and heating stoves:
Residential/Rural Coal Use (TJ)
Residential/Urban Cooking Coal Use

34,417 TJ/yr
10,698 TJ/yr

TOTAL EST COAL USE IN DOMESTIC STOVESFractional Savings Potential, Domestic Stoves:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Domestic Stoves
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$

45,114 TJ/yr
25.0%
11,279 TJ/yr
100 Yuan/(tce/yr)
1.41 per GJ/yr ($2019)15,947,919 ($2019)9
9

Electricity Use by Industrial Subsector: Motors and Drives

Subsector
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry
Transportation
Agricultural Processing
Military Manufacturing

Total
TJ/yr
2,956
2,552
1,857
801
103
2,224
192
302
48
1,960
3,661
615
24

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
50%
95%
50%
50%
95%
20%
95%
95%
95%
80%
95%
95%
80%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
1,478
2,424
928
400
97
445
183
287
46
1,568
3,478
492
23

$
$

11,849 TJ/yr
15.0%
1,777 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
136,366,995 ($2019)11, 19
11

Electricity Use in Other Sectors: Motors and Drives

Sector/Subsector
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

Total
TJ/yr
5,796
7,564
3,161

Fraction in
Motors &Drives
Note 10
10%
30%
30%

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-IND. MOTORS & DRIVES
Fractional Savings Potential, Motor Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electric Motors
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

Total TJ/yr
Motors &Drives
580
2,269
948

$
$

A1- 469

3,797 TJ/yr
15.0%
570 TJ/yr
0.10 Yuan/kWh76.72 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
43,696,700 ($2019)11
11

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Electricity Use: Lighting
Sector/Subsector

Total
TJ/yr

Industrial (All)Transportation (All)
Residential/Rural
Residential/Urban
Public/Commercial
Military Buildings

10,180
3,663
610
5,796
7,564
3,161

Fraction inLighting
Note 13

Total TJ/yr
Lighting

5%
2.5%
50%
50%
50%
50%

509
92
305
2,898
3,782
1,581

TOTAL EST ELECT USE, RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING

3,203 TJ/yr

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing incandescent)

85.0%

Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements (LEDreplacing fluorescent)
Fraction of households lamps already LEDs
Fraction of remaining lamps that are incandescents
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS

50.0%
40.0% Assumption
50.0% Assumption
1,297 TJ/yr

Per Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT$$TOTAL EST ELECT USE, NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
Fractional Savings Potential, Lighting Improvements
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Costs: LED Replacement of Incandescent andFluorescent, controls, and other lighting efficiency upgrades.
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Non-Residential Lighting
TOTAL EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT

0.011 $/kWh
20.32 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
26,353,820 ($2019)
5,871 TJ/yr
50.0%
2,936 TJ/yr$$

0.025 $/kWh ($2019)46.30 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
135,909,676 ($2019)$$

1,334 TJ/yr
1.97E+08 te-km
15,000 te-km
13,104
2,796 TJ/yr
26,09339,19745%70%
43%
1,254 TJ/yr
14,000246,940,382 ($2019)

14

14

15

15

Petroleum Fuel Use: Medium-Sized Trucks
Fuel Use: Civilian Transport/Freight (gasoline trucks only)
Freight transported by gasoline trucks
Average tonne-km per vehicle/yr
Implied number of 2.5 tonne trucks in use (civilian):
Fuel Use: Military Trucks (2 1/2 tonne only)
Total number 2 1/2 tonne military trucks in active service
Total number of 2.5 tonne trucks in service:
Fraction of trucks to be replaced
Fraction of energy use represented by trucks replaced
Fractional energy savings by replacing trucks
TOTAL ENERGY SAVED
Cost per truck to replace
TOTAL COST OF NEW TRUCKS

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Rough Est.

22
22
16
17

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of Residential Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Residential Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseUrban
Rural
Lighting
50.0%
50.0% As assumed above
Space and Water Heating
5.4%
1.3% Assumption based roughly on 2008 Census results (Note 21 )Motors and Drives
10.0%
0.0% Urban as assumed above
Air Conditioning
1.1%
0.0% Rough assumption--urban elites only (Note 20 )Other End-uses
33.5%
48.7% Remainder; rural roughly consistent with Unhari survey results.

Estimate of Agricultural Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Agricultural Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Field
Operations

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of FIsheries Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Fisheries Electricity Used in Each Subsector)
End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Large Ships

0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

Collectives/Processing/Other

3.0% Rough assumption
2.0% Calculated by difference
95.0% Processing as assumed above

Estimate of Military Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Military Electricity Used in Each Subsector)

End UseLighting
Other End Uses
Motors and Drives

Military
Manufacturing

5.0%
15.0%
80.0%

Military Buildings
and Other

50.0% As assumed above
20.0% Calculated by difference
30.0% As assumed above

Estimate of Public/Commercial Electricity End-Uses (Fraction of Electricity Used in Sector)
End UseFractionLighting
50.0% As assumed above
Other End Uses
10.0% Calculated by difference
Motors and Drives
20.0% As assumed above, less
10% assumed used in air conditioning/fansSpace and Water Heating
10.0%
Air Conditioning
10.0%

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Sources/Notes:
1 Total coal use shown here does not include coal used as a non-energy feedstock in carbide production.
2 Assumes 10 percent or less of urban coal use is burned in individual cook ing stoves
3 1990 Value from Microsoft Encarta, 1994.
4 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
5 End-use fractions are rough assumptions
6 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers & furnaces (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 50% to 65 or 70%, plus additionalsavings from other measures. 50% initial (existing boiler) efficiency estimate from document in authors' files [R1].
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies:
M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 37.5%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
7 Assumes (based on sources in 6) 8% increase in efficiency from microprocessor controls at investment of1200 Y/tce-yr, 10% increase for insulation of piping (and similar furnace improvements) at 412 Y/tce-yr,
and 12% increase for boiler and furnace rennovation at 200 Y/tce-yr.
Although the values above come from a reference that is relatively old, a more recent reference by authors in China suggeststhat the costs of saved energy for energy efficiency measures applied to boilers in China based on more recent
data may be similar. The article "Cost-effectiveness Analysis to Improve China's Coal-fired Industrial Boiler", byManzhi Liu, Bo Shen, Yafeng Han, Lynn Price, and Mingchao Xu, Energy Procedia, 5 (2015), pp 1549 – 1554,
available as doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.330 , although it incorporates coal price as a factor in the calculationof the levelized cost of energy savings, lists measures (excluding fuel swicthing measures) that together can saveon the order of 40 percent of initial coal use (Nautilus estimate) at an average weighted cost that appears to bea small fraction of the cost of coal in China, though it is difficult to determine an exact comparison of costs because
the authors do not provide all of the underlying data for their calculations.
8 Assumes (based roughly on sources in 6) that a 15% efficiency increase with general boiler rennovations, startingfrom an average efficiency of 50%, is available for an investment of 250 Y/(tce/yr) (20 percent higher than value
estimated for industrial boilers in Levine et al).
9 Various estimates place the efficiency of chinese coal stoves/heaters at anywhere from 20 to 50 percent.
We have assumed that efficiency measures can increase the thermal efficiency of individual rural stove/heaters
and urban stoves from ave. of 30% to 40%, for a 25% reduction in coal use. Doc. in authors' files [R1] cites
an estimated DPRK residential coal-fired heating stove efficiency of 30%, and cook ing stove efficiency of 20%.
Efficiency investment of 100 Y/tce for domestic coal burning improvements from Levine et al (1992--see note 6).
It is not clear exactly which measures these improvements include; lik ely candidates include coal briquetting
and stove technology improvements.
10 Values are rough estimates. By way of comparison, 65 percent of the electricity used in the entire Chinese
economy has been estimated to be consumed in electric motors (Sathaye, 1992).

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
11 Assumes (based on Chinese experience) that motors can be upgraded from an average efficiency of 75% toan efficiency of 88% (the latter is close to standard US motors) at a (per unit) cost of 0.1 Y/k Wh.
Costs and efficiency improvements from Sathaye, 1992. Note that other improvements such as variable speed
electronic drives, improved valving and gearing, piping retrofits represent substantial additional savings potential.
The 2011 UNIDO document Energy efficiency in electric motor systems:Technology, saving potentials andpolicy options for developing countries includes a number of examples of motor and drive effiiciency improvements
in China, India, the EU, the US, and elsewhere that show payback periods on the order of two years or less, which would
be consistent with (possibly less than) the costs shown in the older Sathaye document. The UNIDO document,(United Nations Industrial Development Organization) was authored by Tobias Fleiter and Wolfgang Eichhammer,
and is available as https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4818324/download/Energy%20efficiency%20in%20electric%20motor%20systems%20-%20Technology,%20saving%20potentials%20and%20policy%20options%20for%20developing%20countries.
12 In our initial estimate, based on Chinese studies, assumes a 20% increase in thermal performance through two measures:a 30mm perlite cement mortar coat on inside of walls plus double glazing. Costs based on estimated
Payback of 2-3 years and mark et coal price of 110Y/tce. Source: S. Lang et al, "Energy Conservation
Standards for Spare Heating in Chinese Residential Buildings", 1992, LBL. Note that these two simple
measures do not begin to exhaust the cost effective measures available for building shell improvements. Other
estimates based on the Chinese situation show that 30 percent improvements in building energy efficiency are
possible for a modest 5% increase in building costs. (Source: "An Overview of Energy Demand andSupply in China", F. Liu et al, 1992 (LBL).)A more recent (2014) study, "Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of k ey energy
efficiency technologies in China‫׳‬s building sector to 2030", by He Xiao, Qingpeng Wei, and Hailin Wang,
Energy Policy Volume 69, June 2014, Pages 92-105, available as https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.021, includes ananalysis of 34 building energy improvement technologies that provide an aggregate
17% savings inprimary energy use, a total of
229 Mtce in 2030, and CO2e savings of499.8 million tonnes by the same
year, at an average cost of$
19.50 per tonne CO2e. This implies a cost of saved energy of$
42.56
per tce. We expect that the cost per unit of saved energy for DPRK buildings will lik ely be lower, and savings higher,
due to the lik ely better energy efficiency performance of average Chinese buildings versus average DPRK buildings, andlower labor rates in the DPRK. We assume that savings are
25% higher than in thisexample, and unit costs are
25% lower. It is probable that an aggressive building energy efficiency program could
reduce DPRK building energy use much further over time (the same is lik ely true in China).
13 Rough estimates. For comparison, lighting comprises about 28% of household electricity use in
Thailand, and 33% in the FSU, but in both cases use of household appliances, including cooling, refrigeration,and electric water and space heating, probably account for a larger fraction of energy use than in DPRK homes.
Nautilus' 1998 rural energy survey suggested that lighting comprised over 50 percent of total electricity use in thehouseholds in one rural village.
14 Assumes that 50% of residential lighting energy is currently used in incandescent bulbs, that light-emitting diode (LED)bulbs save 85% of the energy of incandescent bulbs (and 50% of the energy of compact fluorescent bulbs (CFLs) or
fluorescent tube lighting, and that LEDs can be used to replace incandescent or fluorescent bulbs
for all existing residential incandescent or fluorescent bulb lighting use. An earlier version of this analysis
used costs based on Sathaye, 1992, andbased on setting up CFL factory in China at an investment cost of $5M to produces 3 million CFLs
per year at roughly 6.9Y/unit. Extensive use of LEDs may require that DPRK the power grid be upgraded
to reduce voltage fluctuations and improve power factors (or replaced by a series of mini-grids).
An addendum to this earlier estimate is that the
DPRK apparently has placed CFLs, reportedly made in the DPRK, in virtually all DPRK households
during approximately 2005 - 2006. The DPRK reportedly deployed both imported bulbs, including
bulbs made by Phillips, but over time have developed DPRK-based manufacturing. News of this program isbased on a report provided by the DPRK delegation attending the 2006 "Asian Energy Security" work shop
organized by Nautilus with EETC of Tsinghua University, Beijing (November, 2006).
To estimate costs of saved energy for the current analysis, we assume two simple replacements:
The first replaces a 40 W DPRK incandescent bulb with a 5 W LED bulb, with annual usage of
1000
hours (about 3 hours daily). We assume a bulb cost of$1 , and a bulb lifetime of20000 hours. Wholesale costs for similar bulbs made in China are shown on Alibaba.com at$0.15 to $0.40 each, so we assume a retail cost of $1 per bulb is quite possible. Listed lifetimes for some bulbs are
longer. With a (consumer) discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the bulb, ignoring saved
O&M costs and the cost of the bulb being replaced, would be$0.13 per year to save
35 kWh, for a levelized cost of saved energy (CSE) of$ 0.0038 per kWh. Similarly,
a 13 W LED tube lamp fixture (90 cm) replacing a 30 W fluorescent fixture is available on Alibaba for a cost ofaround $1.6 per fixture (which includes both the fixture and the lamp). Again assuming no credit for avoided O&M
or existing bulbs/fixtures, and assuming a retail fixture cost in the DPRK of$
3.00 each, a lifetime of20000 hours, and annual usage of1500 hours per year, and a discount rate of
12% annually, the annualized capital cost of the fixture would be$0.46 per year to save
25.5 k Wh, or $ 0.0181 per kWh. Averaging these two cases yields a CSE of$
0.011
per k Wh, which we use as a rough estimate for residential lighting improvements. In practice, factoring in net savings in O&M
costs and the value of avoided (base case) light bulb purchases, these costs are lik ely much lower,
and probably negative.

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15 In a 2015 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) document, New Horizons forEnergy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030 , commercial lighting energy
efficiency options are provided with costs on the order of 5 to 10 cents per k Wh in the United States.
It is highly lik ely that opportunities in the DPRK will be even more cost-effective, because buildings on average will
start from a much lower base of efficiency, and because of the lower labor costs in the DPRK, although it is lik ely thatlighting efficiency improvements will be accompanied by upgrades in the lumens provided as well. We
assume an average of$0.025 per kWh as an average cost of saved energy for lighting improvementsin the public/commercial, military, and industrial sectors in the DPRK. This is lik ely a substantial over-estimate, given thelong lifetime of typical LED lighting bulbs and systems. ACEEE document prepared by
Dan York , Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly,
dated September 2015, Report Number U1507, and available
as https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/u1507.pdf.
This document includes an example with savings of 65 percent covering 68 percent of lighting end-uses. We assume
average lighting energy savings of 50 percent.
16 Estimated based on our estimates for the fuel economy of 2 1/2 tonne truck s in the DPRK military and quoted
estimate from US Isuzu truck vendor for average fuel economy of new 2 1/2 tonne Isuzu (diesel) truck (11miles per gallon). Adjustment has been made for higher fuel energy content of diesel (vs. gasoline).
17 Approximate cost of new truck from China, including roughly estimated taxes and shipping costs.
See, for example, the diesel "Dongfeng" truck s described on Alibaba here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/4X2-wheel-drive-3-5-tons_60714507616.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.93.28d138f2PRkKGF
and gasoline-fueled "FOTON" brand units here
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/New-China-5-ton-mini-truck_60642742600.html?spm=a2700.7724838.2017115.84.287b43a48AOfyp
But note that truck s come in many configurations, sizes, and thus costs.
18 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
19 The savings figures shown here may well be conservative (low) for DPRK conditions. In his presentation"Energy Efficiency Activities in the DPRK and Opportunities for Rationalization of Energy Use", prepared
as prepared for the DPRK Energy Experts Work ing Group Meeting, June 26th and 27th, 2006, Palo
Alto, CA, USA). Prof. Jan Jasiewicz notes the results of energy audits in industrial installations in the
DPRK where potential savings were found to be between 15 and 60 percent, with payback times (presumably undermark et prices for energy commodities) of less than three years. Although a number of years havepassed since then, we assume that many of the DPRK's boilers and furnaces have not been significantly updated,
and thus the difference between the efficiencies of existing and modern units remain, on average, at about
this level.
20 As a rough calculation, assume
1.5 kW an average of10500 MWh/yr or about
DPRK urban electricity use in 2018.

10000 elite households using a room air conditioner rated at
700 full-time hours per year. This would imply usage of37800 GJ per year, or about
1.1%
of estimated

21 The DPRK's 2008 Census lists the following data for fraction of households with electric space heating by type
Urban
Rural
Electronic heating system*
1.00%
0.22%
Electronic heating system with others*
1.27%
0.45%
Total Households
3,579,626
2,307,845*Note: "Electronic" probably means "Electrical", likely mostly portable or fixed resistance heating devices.
If we assume the following about electric heating in each sector (average of both types of "electronic" heating)
Urban
Rural
Average Hours full-time equivalent use/yr
500
100 Rural especially limited by electricity supplies.
Average capacity (k W)
1.50
1.50
Implied MWh/yr electricity use
60,7302,304
Fraction of estimated subsectoral MWh
5.40%
1.33%
22 Very rough estimate incorporating the observation that many truck s have been imported into the DPRK in recent
years, but that many of the older 2.5 tonne truck s are doubtless still on the road. The assumption that these truck s
to be replaced account for 70 percent of fuel use tak es into account A) that many of the older truck s in the estimatedtruck fleet may be inoperable much of the time, and B) that new truck s have been increasingly used in recent years.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimates of Cost and Savings of Selected Electricity Supply Measures
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2018 ACTIVITIES
7/3/2020

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.73
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 1
Note 2
Note 10Sources/Notes:
Electricity Supply Improvements:
Coal and HFO Consumption in Electricity Generation Boilers
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL/HFO SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Boilers

84,802 TJ/yr
30.0%
25,441 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)$
7.64 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 194,316,248

Own Use of electricity in Coal and HFO-Fired Power Plants
Potential reduction in "Own Use" in Coal/HFO-Fired Plants:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Self Use

1,417 TJ/yr
50.0%
708 TJ/yr
0.12 Yuan/kWh$92.55 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 129,146,699

Emergency Losses of electricity in Coal/HFO-Fired Power Plants
1,406 TJ/yr
Potential red. in Emergency Losses in Coal-Fired Plants:
90%
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS
1,266 TJ/yr
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses
0.075 Yuan/kWh
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses$
57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Emer. Losses$ 73,215,450
Transmission and Distribution Losses of Electricity
Potential reduction in Transmission and Distribution Losses:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: T&D

14,017 TJ/yr
37.5%
5,256 TJ/yr
0.075 Yuan/kWh$57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 304,050,030

DPRK Wind Power Resource
Total Wind Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Wind Generators (per unit capacity)
Variable Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Wind Generators
Capital Costs, Wind Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

MW
500 MW30%
1,314 GWhe/yr
4,730 TJ/yr$
1,500 per kW ($2019)$
0.013 per KWhe
$ 750,000,000$
159 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 17,082,000 per yr ($2019)DPRK Average Solar Power Resource
Total Solar Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Solar PV Systems (per unit capacity)
Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Solar PV Generators
Capital Costs, Solar Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

1,300 kWh/yr per kWp
500 MW
14.8%
650 GWhe/yr
2,340 TJ/yr$
1,000 per kW ($2019)$10 per KW/yr$ 500,000,000$
214 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 5,000,000 per yr ($2019)

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3
3

4

6
6

7
5
5

???

7

8
9

11

12
13

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 1990 Value from https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate-historical-chart.
2 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
3 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 55-60% to 75-80%.
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies on industrial boilers; we assume similarsavings will be available for DPRK utility boilers (probably at a lower price, due to economies of scale).
Sources: M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 30%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
4 Assumes Own use can be reduced from current (estimated) 9.0% to 4.5% of gross generation. Savings
fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
5 Assumes Transmission and Distribution losses can be reduced from current (reported) 16% to 10% of net
generation. Savings fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
A chapter in the document Implementing EPA’s Clean Power Plan: A Menu of Options , by 4CleanAir.org,
lists, in Chapter 10. "Reduce Losses in the Transmission and Distribution System", a payback time ofas little as 2.4 years for transformer investments, even in the United States, to reduce T&D losses.
This represents a cost of on the order of a few US cents or less per k Wh on a levelized cost basis, and thus
similar to the older costs quoted by Sathaye. Full document available
as www.4cleanair.org/sites/default/files/Documents/NACAA_Menu_of_Options_HR.pdf. Dated
May 2015, and authored by NACAA, the National Association of Clean Air Agencies (US).
6 Assumes that emergency losses can be nearly eliminated by plant and T&D improvements, and thatmeasures to reduce emergency losses will be available at a cost per k Wh saved similar to that fortransmission and distribution improvements. In fact, reduction in emergency losses may occur as a result of
boiler and T&D improvements even without any additional outlay.
7 Rough estimate. By way of comparison, Cavallo, Hock and Smith ("Wind Energy: Technology and Economics",
in Renewable Energy, Sources for Fuels and Electricity, T.B. Johansson et al, 1993. Island Press, Washington, DC)
cite capacity figures of 25 and 26.7 percent for California and Denmark , respectively.
Wiser and Bolinger (2019--see reference in Note 8 ), indicate that capacity factors for wind turbines
have been climbing in recent years, and have been in the range of 40 percent for recent installations. We assume
a lower average value for DPRK installations based on the assumption that the number of high-quality resourceareas for wind in the DPRK are relatively limited.
8 Assumes that wind machines can be produced in DPRK under license to an existing manufacturer, and/or
can be imported from manufacturers in China (for example), at least as the program matures. For comparison,
US installed wind power capacity costs in the 2009-2011 time frame was about $2000 per k W, withprice quotes for equipment (uninstalled capacity) ranging from $900 to $1600 per k W. As most US wind powerpurchases were probably larger-capacity machines in recent years, and North Korean wind machines, for various
reasons (including logistics of installation and grid-compatibility issues, among others) migth be smaller, thisestimate could be either a bit high or low for the wind devices actually deployed in the DPRK. For figures on the
US wind mark et, see, for example, 2010 Wind Technologies Mark et Report , primary authors Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,
Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory, LBNL Report Number 4820e, dated June, 2011, and available
as http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/51783.pdf. The 2018 version of this same report, dated August 20192018 Wind Technologies Market Report, Report Number DOE/GO-102019-5191, isavailable as https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/wtmr_final_for_posting_8-9-19.pdf, lists US average installed costs
at about $1500 per k W. In addition, as of 2020, a number of vendors listed in Alibaba.com offer wind turbineson the scale of about 500 k W to several MW at a costs on the order of $600 to $1000 per k W, which would also be
consistent with an installed cost of about $1500 per kW, although installation costs in the DPRK could be lower,
given lik ely lower labor costs, or higher, due to more difficult transportation and installation, depending on the location
within the DPRK.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
9 Rough estimate. Source above shows recent O&M costs in the US of about $9/MWhe, but for larger windturbines than would lik ely be installed in the DPRK. Still, as O&M costs are labor-intensive as opposed to material-intensive,these costs may well be less in the DPRK.
10 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
11 A review of data for sites from around the DPRK from the Global Solar Atlas for "Specific photovoltaic power output" showssites ranging from 1300 to 1600 annual k Wh output per peak k W of photovoltaic panel capacity. We assume a value on the
low end of this range to factor in sub-optimal siting in some instances or conversion or inverter losses, for example. The
Global Solar Atlas is made available by the World Bank Group. See,for example, https://globalsolaratlas.info/map?c=39.690281,126.529541,8&s=40.672306,126.721802&m=site for a map anddate for a site in Chagang Province in the Northern part of the DPRK (also shown below)..

12 The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) document RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2018, dated
2019 and available as https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf,
provides show total installed cost for utility scale solar photovoltaic power of less than $1000 USD per k W in 2018, with recent trends
showing costs falling rapidly. Alibaba.com, as of July, 2020, showed numerous vendors offering solar PV modules foras low as USD $200 per k W, so the estimate used here, $1000 per k W, may be high for even 2020..
13 The (US) National Renewable Energy Laboratory publication U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark : Q1 2018, by Ran Fu,
David Feldman, and Robert Margolis, Technical ReportNREL/TP-6A20-72399. dated November 2018, and available
as https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf, lists 2018 O&M costs for utility-scale solar PV systems at an average of$13 per k W/yr. These costs have been falling steadily; for example, 2010 costs were more than twice 2018 costs.
DPRK labor costs will be lower than in the US, though some other costs may be higher. We assume$10
per k W-yr as an average O&M cost over 2020-2030.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2019 ACTIVITIES
7/3/2020

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.73
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 1
Note 2
Note 10Sources/Notes:
Electricity Supply Improvements:
Coal and HFO Consumption in Electricity Generation Boilers
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL/HFO SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Boilers

84,817 TJ/yr
30.0%
25,445 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)$
7.64 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 194,350,348

Own Use of electricity in Coal and HFO-Fired Power Plants
Potential reduction in "Own Use" in Coal/HFO-Fired Plants:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Self Use

1,417 TJ/yr
50.0%
708 TJ/yr
0.12 Yuan/kWh$92.55 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 129,146,699

Emergency Losses of electricity in Coal/HFO-Fired Power Plants
1,406 TJ/yr
Potential red. in Emergency Losses in Coal-Fired Plants:
90%
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS
1,266 TJ/yr
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses
0.075 Yuan/kWh
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses$
57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Emer. Losses$ 73,215,450
Transmission and Distribution Losses of Electricity
Potential reduction in Transmission and Distribution Losses:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: T&D

14,117 TJ/yr
37.5%
5,294 TJ/yr
0.075 Yuan/kWh$57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 306,223,829

DPRK Wind Power Resource
Total Wind Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Wind Generators (per unit capacity)
Variable Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Wind Generators
Capital Costs, Wind Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

MW
500 MW30%
1,314 GWhe/yr
4,730 TJ/yr$
1,500 per kW ($2019)$
0.013 per KWhe
$ 750,000,000$
159 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 17,082,000 per yr ($2019)DPRK Average Solar Power Resource
Total Solar Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Solar PV Systems (per unit capacity)
Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Solar PV Generators
Capital Costs, Solar Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

1,300 kWh/yr per kWp
500 MW
14.8%
650 GWhe/yr
2,340 TJ/yr$
1,000 per kW ($2019)$10 per KW/yr$ 500,000,000$
214 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 5,000,000 per yr ($2019)

A1- 478

3
3

4

6
6

7
5
5

???

7

8
9

11

12
13

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 1990 Value from https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate-historical-chart.
2 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
3 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 55-60% to 75-80%.
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies on industrial boilers; we assume similarsavings will be available for DPRK utility boilers (probably at a lower price, due to economies of scale).
Sources: M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 30%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
4 Assumes Own use can be reduced from current (estimated) 9.0% to 4.5% of gross generation. Savings
fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
5 Assumes Transmission and Distribution losses can be reduced from current (reported) 16% to 10% of net
generation. Savings fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
A chapter in the document Implementing EPA’s Clean Power Plan: A Menu of Options , by 4CleanAir.org,
lists, in Chapter 10. "Reduce Losses in the Transmission and Distribution System", a payback time ofas little as 2.4 years for transformer investments, even in the United States, to reduce T&D losses.
This represents a cost of on the order of a few US cents or less per k Wh on a levelized cost basis, and thus
similar to the older costs quoted by Sathaye. Full document available
as www.4cleanair.org/sites/default/files/Documents/NACAA_Menu_of_Options_HR.pdf. Dated
May 2015, and authored by NACAA, the National Association of Clean Air Agencies (US).
6 Assumes that emergency losses can be nearly eliminated by plant and T&D improvements, and thatmeasures to reduce emergency losses will be available at a cost per k Wh saved similar to that fortransmission and distribution improvements. In fact, reduction in emergency losses may occur as a result of
boiler and T&D improvements even without any additional outlay.
7 Rough estimate. By way of comparison, Cavallo, Hock and Smith ("Wind Energy: Technology and Economics",
in Renewable Energy, Sources for Fuels and Electricity, T.B. Johansson et al, 1993. Island Press, Washington, DC)
cite capacity figures of 25 and 26.7 percent for California and Denmark , respectively.
Wiser and Bolinger (2019--see reference in Note 8 ), indicate that capacity factors for wind turbines
have been climbing in recent years, and have been in the range of 40 percent for recent installations. We assume
a lower average value for DPRK installations based on the assumption that the number of high-quality resourceareas for wind in the DPRK are relatively limited.
8 Assumes that wind machines can be produced in DPRK under license to an existing manufacturer, and/or
can be imported from manufacturers in China (for example), at least as the program matures. For comparison,
US installed wind power capacity costs in the 2009-2011 time frame was about $2000 per k W, withprice quotes for equipment (uninstalled capacity) ranging from $900 to $1600 per k W. As most US wind powerpurchases were probably larger-capacity machines in recent years, and North Korean wind machines, for various
reasons (including logistics of installation and grid-compatibility issues, among others) migth be smaller, thisestimate could be either a bit high or low for the wind devices actually deployed in the DPRK. For figures on the
US wind mark et, see, for example, 2010 Wind Technologies Mark et Report , primary authors Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,
Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory, LBNL Report Number 4820e, dated June, 2011, and available
as http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/51783.pdf. The 2018 version of this same report, dated August 20192018 Wind Technologies Market Report, Report Number DOE/GO-102019-5191, isavailable as https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/wtmr_final_for_posting_8-9-19.pdf, lists US average installed costs
at about $1500 per k W. In addition, as of 2020, a number of vendors listed in Alibaba.com offer wind turbineson the scale of about 500 k W to several MW at a costs on the order of $600 to $1000 per k W, which would also be
consistent with an installed cost of about $1500 per kW, although installation costs in the DPRK could be lower,
given lik ely lower labor costs, or higher, due to more difficult transportation and installation, depending on the location
within the DPRK.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
9 Rough estimate. Source above shows recent O&M costs in the US of about $9/MWhe, but for larger windturbines than would lik ely be installed in the DPRK. Still, as O&M costs are labor-intensive as opposed to material-intensive,these costs may well be less in the DPRK.
10 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
11 A review of data for sites from around the DPRK from the Global Solar Atlas for "Specific photovoltaic power output" showssites ranging from 1300 to 1600 annual k Wh output per peak k W of photovoltaic panel capacity. We assume a value on the
low end of this range to factor in sub-optimal siting in some instances or conversion or inverter losses, for example. The
Global Solar Atlas is made available by the World Bank Group. See,for example, https://globalsolaratlas.info/map?c=39.690281,126.529541,8&s=40.672306,126.721802&m=site for a map anddate for a site in Chagang Province in the Northern part of the DPRK (also shown below)..

12 The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) document RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2018, dated
2019 and available as https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf,
provides show total installed cost for utility scale solar photovoltaic power of less than $1000 USD per k W in 2018, with recent trends
showing costs falling rapidly. Alibaba.com, as of July, 2020, showed numerous vendors offering solar PV modules foras low as USD $200 per k W, so the estimate used here, $1000 per k W, may be high for even 2020..
13 The (US) National Renewable Energy Laboratory publication U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark : Q1 2018, by Ran Fu,
David Feldman, and Robert Margolis, Technical ReportNREL/TP-6A20-72399. dated November 2018, and available
as https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf, lists 2018 O&M costs for utility-scale solar PV systems at an average of$13 per k W/yr. These costs have been falling steadily; for example, 2010 costs were more than twice 2018 costs.
DPRK labor costs will be lower than in the US, though some other costs may be higher. We assume$10
per k W-yr as an average O&M cost over 2020-2030.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2020 ACTIVITIES
7/3/2020

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS/CONVERSION FACTORS
Currency Conversion: 1990 Yuan to 1990 $US:
Fraction of total investment represented by annualized CCE:
Inflator to convert 1990 costs to 2019 costs:
Energy Conversion Factor:
Energy Conversion Factor:

4.73
15%
197%
29.3 GJ/tce
0.0036 GJ/kWh

Note 1
Note 2
Note 10Sources/Notes:
Electricity Supply Improvements:
Coal and HFO Consumption in Electricity Generation Boilers
Fractional Savings Potential, Boilers:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL COAL/HFO SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Boilers
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Boilers

54,739 TJ/yr
30.0%
16,422 TJ/yr
537 Yuan/(tce/yr)$
7.64 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 125,429,619

Own Use of electricity in Coal and HFO-Fired Power Plants
Potential reduction in "Own Use" in Coal/HFO-Fired Plants:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Plant Self-Use
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Self Use

845 TJ/yr
50.0%
423 TJ/yr
0.12 Yuan/kWh$92.55 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 77,071,558

Emergency Losses of electricity in Coal/HFO-Fired Power Plants
835 TJ/yr
Potential red. in Emergency Losses in Coal-Fired Plants:
90%
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGS
752 TJ/yr
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses
0.075 Yuan/kWh
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Reduction in Emergency Losses$
57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)
EST. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: Emer. Losses$ 43,477,108
Transmission and Distribution Losses of Electricity
Potential reduction in Transmission and Distribution Losses:
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY SAVINGSPer Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
Per Unit Upgrade Costs, Electricity T&D
ESTIMATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT: T&D

12,745 TJ/yr
37.5%
4,779 TJ/yr
0.075 Yuan/kWh$57.85 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 276,469,554

DPRK Wind Power Resource
Total Wind Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Wind Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Wind Generators (per unit capacity)
Variable Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Wind Generators
Capital Costs, Wind Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

MW
500 MW30%
1,314 GWhe/yr
4,730 TJ/yr$
1,500 per kW ($2019)$
0.013 per KWhe
$ 750,000,000$
159 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 17,082,000 per yr ($2019)DPRK Average Solar Power Resource
Total Solar Power Generation Implemented, 2020 to 2030
Capacity factor of Wind generators
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Energy Produced by Solar Generators (year 10)
Installed Capital Cost of Solar PV Systems (per unit capacity)
Operations and Maintenance Costs
Total Capital Costs of installed Solar PV Generators
Capital Costs, Solar Power, per unit output
Total of Other Generation Costs (year 10)

1,300 kWh/yr per kWp
500 MW
14.8%
650 GWhe/yr
2,340 TJ/yr$
1,000 per kW ($2019)$10 per KW/yr$ 500,000,000$
214 /(GJ/yr) ($2019)$ 5,000,000 per yr ($2019)

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3
3

4

6
6

7
5
5

???

7

8
9

11

12
13

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Sources/Notes:
1 1990 Value from https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate-historical-chart.
2 Assumes 12 percent discount rate and average 15 year lifetime for energy efficiency investments.
J. Sathaye (1992), "Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity Supply and Use: Are Efficiency
Investments Cost-effective?" (LBL--In draft form as of May 1992).
3 Assumes the following measures: Microcomputer control (8% increase in efficiency), insulation of piping(responsible for heat loss equal to 10% of energy use), and rennovation of boilers (10 -15% increasein efficiency). Overall, assumes increase in average boiler energy efficiency from 55-60% to 75-80%.
Savings fractions and costs for measures tak en from China studies on industrial boilers; we assume similarsavings will be available for DPRK utility boilers (probably at a lower price, due to economies of scale).
Sources: M.Levine, L.Xueyi, "Energy Conservation Programs in the PRC", Aug, 1990, LBL-29211;
D. Yande, "An Analysis of the Potential in Investment-Cum-Energy Conservation in Chemical Industry in China";
and Levine et al, "China's Energy System: Historical Evolution, Current Issues, and Prospects", Ann. Rev
Energy Environ., 1992, 17:405-435.
Note that the savings potential assumed here, 30%, comports with the estimate (UN document) that theconservation potential in DPRK is 30 to 50% (and further, up to 20% can be saved at "little or no cost").
4 Assumes Own use can be reduced from current (estimated) 9.0% to 4.5% of gross generation. Savings
fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
5 Assumes Transmission and Distribution losses can be reduced from current (reported) 16% to 10% of net
generation. Savings fraction range and cost range from Sathaye, 1992.
A chapter in the document Implementing EPA’s Clean Power Plan: A Menu of Options , by 4CleanAir.org,
lists, in Chapter 10. "Reduce Losses in the Transmission and Distribution System", a payback time ofas little as 2.4 years for transformer investments, even in the United States, to reduce T&D losses.
This represents a cost of on the order of a few US cents or less per k Wh on a levelized cost basis, and thus
similar to the older costs quoted by Sathaye. Full document available
as www.4cleanair.org/sites/default/files/Documents/NACAA_Menu_of_Options_HR.pdf. Dated
May 2015, and authored by NACAA, the National Association of Clean Air Agencies (US).
6 Assumes that emergency losses can be nearly eliminated by plant and T&D improvements, and thatmeasures to reduce emergency losses will be available at a cost per k Wh saved similar to that fortransmission and distribution improvements. In fact, reduction in emergency losses may occur as a result of
boiler and T&D improvements even without any additional outlay.
7 Rough estimate. By way of comparison, Cavallo, Hock and Smith ("Wind Energy: Technology and Economics",
in Renewable Energy, Sources for Fuels and Electricity, T.B. Johansson et al, 1993. Island Press, Washington, DC)
cite capacity figures of 25 and 26.7 percent for California and Denmark , respectively.
Wiser and Bolinger (2019--see reference in Note 8 ), indicate that capacity factors for wind turbines
have been climbing in recent years, and have been in the range of 40 percent for recent installations. We assume
a lower average value for DPRK installations based on the assumption that the number of high-quality resourceareas for wind in the DPRK are relatively limited.
8 Assumes that wind machines can be produced in DPRK under license to an existing manufacturer, and/or
can be imported from manufacturers in China (for example), at least as the program matures. For comparison,
US installed wind power capacity costs in the 2009-2011 time frame was about $2000 per k W, withprice quotes for equipment (uninstalled capacity) ranging from $900 to $1600 per k W. As most US wind powerpurchases were probably larger-capacity machines in recent years, and North Korean wind machines, for various
reasons (including logistics of installation and grid-compatibility issues, among others) migth be smaller, thisestimate could be either a bit high or low for the wind devices actually deployed in the DPRK. For figures on the
US wind mark et, see, for example, 2010 Wind Technologies Mark et Report , primary authors Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,
Lawrence Berk eley National Laboratory, LBNL Report Number 4820e, dated June, 2011, and available
as http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/51783.pdf. The 2018 version of this same report, dated August 20192018 Wind Technologies Market Report, Report Number DOE/GO-102019-5191, isavailable as https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/wtmr_final_for_posting_8-9-19.pdf, lists US average installed costs
at about $1500 per k W. In addition, as of 2020, a number of vendors listed in Alibaba.com offer wind turbineson the scale of about 500 k W to several MW at a costs on the order of $600 to $1000 per k W, which would also be
consistent with an installed cost of about $1500 per kW, although installation costs in the DPRK could be lower,
given lik ely lower labor costs, or higher, due to more difficult transportation and installation, depending on the location
within the DPRK.

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9 Rough estimate. Source above shows recent O&M costs in the US of about $9/MWhe, but for larger windturbines than would lik ely be installed in the DPRK. Still, as O&M costs are labor-intensive as opposed to material-intensive,these costs may well be less in the DPRK.
10 See, for example, "Inflation Calculator" on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.
11 A review of data for sites from around the DPRK from the Global Solar Atlas for "Specific photovoltaic power output" showssites ranging from 1300 to 1600 annual k Wh output per peak k W of photovoltaic panel capacity. We assume a value on the
low end of this range to factor in sub-optimal siting in some instances or conversion or inverter losses, for example. The
Global Solar Atlas is made available by the World Bank Group. See,for example, https://globalsolaratlas.info/map?c=39.690281,126.529541,8&s=40.672306,126.721802&m=site for a map anddate for a site in Chagang Province in the Northern part of the DPRK (also shown below)..

12 The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) document RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2018, dated
2019 and available as https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf,
provides show total installed cost for utility scale solar photovoltaic power of less than $1000 USD per k W in 2018, with recent trends
showing costs falling rapidly. Alibaba.com, as of July, 2020, showed numerous vendors offering solar PV modules foras low as USD $200 per k W, so the estimate used here, $1000 per k W, may be high for even 2020..
13 The (US) National Renewable Energy Laboratory publication U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark : Q1 2018, by Ran Fu,
David Feldman, and Robert Margolis, Technical ReportNREL/TP-6A20-72399. dated November 2018, and available
as https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf, lists 2018 O&M costs for utility-scale solar PV systems at an average of$13 per k W/yr. These costs have been falling steadily; for example, 2010 costs were more than twice 2018 costs.
DPRK labor costs will be lower than in the US, though some other costs may be higher. We assume$10
per k W-yr as an average O&M cost over 2020-2030.

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Summary of Energy Efficiency and Electricity Supply Measure Results
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: SUMMARY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2018 ACTIVITIES

7/8/2020

Inflator for 2010 to 2019 (Note 1 ):1.180

MEASURES TO SAVE COAL:

MeasureIndustrial Boiler and Furnace Improvements
Residential and Public/Commercial/Military Boiler Impr.
Building Envelope Improvements
Solar Water Heating
Domestic Stove/Heater Improvements
Electric Utility Boiler Improvements
TOTALS
Avoided Losses of Coal During Transport:
TOTAL COAL SUPPLY SAVINGS
Fraction of 2010 Total Coal Supply
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Coal Supply Savings
Investment required, $ per tce/yr of Coal Supply Savings

Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
Potential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 201945,725$ 409,946,754
31,633$ 158,341,807
22,572$ 206,985,618
11,387$ 140,461,810
10,944$
18,260,306
25,441$ 229,293,173
147,702 TJ/yr $ 1,163,289,468
1,477.02 TJ/yr
149,179 TJ/yr
38.9%
$
7.80
$
228

MEASURES TO SAVE/GENERATE ELECTRICITY:
Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
MeasurePotential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 2019
Industrial Motors and Drives
1,787$ 161,798,709
Motors and Drives in other Sectors
644$
58,299,963
Residential Lighting
777$
18,623,731
Non-residential Lighting
3,612$ 197,344,383
Own Use reduction in Power Plants
708$ 152,393,105
Reduction of Emergency Use in Power Plants
1,266$
86,394,231
Transmission and Distribution Improvements
5,256$ 358,779,035
Wind-powered Electricity Generation
4,730$ 750,000,000
Solar-powered Electricity Generation
2,340$ 500,000,000
TOTALS
21,121 TJ/yr $ 2,283,633,156
Additional Avoided T&D Losses (based on 2010 Rates)
1,891 TJ/yr
TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SAVINGS/GENERATION
23,012 TJ/yr
Fraction of 2018 Total Electricity Generation
41.1%
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
99.24
Investment required, $ per MWh/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
357

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MEASURE TO SAVE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS:
Estimated Energy
Energy Savings
Potential, TJ/yr
1,911
6.3%
23.9%

MeasureImprovements in 2 1/2 tonne truck fleet
Fraction of 2018 Total Refined Products Use
Fract. of 2018 Total Refined Prod. Use in Road Transport
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of refined products Savings
Investment required, $ per toe/yr of petroleum products Savings

Total EstimatedInvestment
Cost, $US 2010
442,880,326$$

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS REDUCTION (Rough Calculations)SulfurOxides(tonnes)
MEASURES TO SAVE COAL
MEASURES TO SAVE ELECTRICITY

81,51819,291

Nitrogen
Oxides(tonnes)

50,782
12,573

Carbon Dioxide(tonnes)

12,751,951
3,206,623

Sources/Notes:
1 From https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm but not used--costs already updated to2019 USD in efficiency estimates work sheets.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: SUMMARY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2019 ACTIVITIES

7/8/2020

Inflator for 2010 to 2019 (Note 1 ):1.180

MEASURES TO SAVE COAL:

MeasureIndustrial Boiler and Furnace Improvements
Residential and Public/Commercial/Military Boiler Impr.
Building Envelope Improvements
Solar Water Heating
Domestic Stove/Heater Improvements
Electric Utility Boiler Improvements
TOTALS
Avoided Losses of Coal During Transport:
TOTAL COAL SUPPLY SAVINGS
Fraction of 2010 Total Coal Supply
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Coal Supply Savings
Investment required, $ per tce/yr of Coal Supply Savings

Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
Potential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 201945,526$ 408,164,600
32,095$ 160,654,656
22,902$ 210,008,992
11,560$ 142,307,337
11,109$18,536,092
25,445$ 229,333,411
148,638 TJ/yr $ 1,169,005,088
1,486.38 TJ/yr
150,124 TJ/yr
39.1%
$
7.79
$
228

MEASURES TO SAVE/GENERATE ELECTRICITY:
Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
MeasurePotential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 2019
Industrial Motors and Drives
1,777$ 160,913,054
Motors and Drives in other Sectors
643$
58,193,405
Residential Lighting
741$
17,759,933
Non-residential Lighting
3,620$ 197,774,930
Own Use reduction in Power Plants
708$ 152,393,105
Reduction of Emergency Use in Power Plants
1,266$
86,394,231
Transmission and Distribution Improvements
5,294$ 361,344,118
Wind-powered Electricity Generation
4,730$ 750,000,000
Solar-powered Electricity Generation
2,340$ 500,000,000
TOTALS
21,120 TJ/yr $ 2,284,772,776
Additional Avoided T&D Losses (based on 2010 Rates)
1,880 TJ/yr
TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SAVINGS/GENERATION
22,999 TJ/yr
Fraction of 2018 Total Electricity Generation
41.1%
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
99.34
Investment required, $ per MWh/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
358

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MEASURE TO SAVE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS:
Estimated Energy
Energy Savings
Potential, TJ/yr
1,889
6.2%
23.6%

MeasureImprovements in 2 1/2 tonne truck fleet
Fraction of 2018 Total Refined Products Use
Fract. of 2018 Total Refined Prod. Use in Road Transport
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of refined products Savings
Investment required, $ per toe/yr of petroleum products Savings

Total EstimatedInvestment
Cost, $US 2019437,594,151$$

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS REDUCTION (Rough Calculations)SulfurOxides(tonnes)
MEASURES TO SAVE COAL
MEASURES TO SAVE ELECTRICITY

82,545
19,338

Nitrogen
Oxides(tonnes)

51,422
12,658Carbon Dioxide(tonnes)

12,912,234
3,232,461

Sources/Notes:
1 From https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm but not used--costs already updated to2019 USD in efficiency estimates work sheets.

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ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEBACK-UP CALCULATIONS AND DATA:POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS: SUMMARY
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

BASED ON YEAR 2020 ACTIVITIES

7/8/2020

Inflator for 2010 to 2019 (Note 1 ):1.180

MEASURES TO SAVE COAL:

MeasureIndustrial Boiler and Furnace Improvements
Residential and Public/Commercial/Military Boiler Impr.
Building Envelope Improvements
Solar Water Heating
Domestic Stove/Heater Improvements
Electric Utility Boiler Improvements
TOTALS
Avoided Losses of Coal During Transport:
TOTAL COAL SUPPLY SAVINGS
Fraction of 2010 Total Coal Supply
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Coal Supply Savings
Investment required, $ per tce/yr of Coal Supply Savings

Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
Potential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 201937,237$ 333,844,398
30,141$ 150,870,044
21,507$ 197,218,473
10,591$ 105,900,591
11,279$18,818,545
16,422$ 148,006,950
127,176 TJ/yr $ 954,659,001
1,271.76 TJ/yr
128,448 TJ/yr
33.5%
$
7.43
$
218

MEASURES TO SAVE/GENERATE ELECTRICITY:
Estimated Energy
Total EstimatedEnergy Savings
Investment
MeasurePotential, TJ/yr
Cost, $US 2019
Industrial Motors and Drives
1,777$ 160,913,054
Motors and Drives in other Sectors
570$
51,562,106
Residential Lighting
1,297$
31,097,507
Non-residential Lighting
2,936$ 160,373,417
Own Use reduction in Power Plants
423$
90,944,438
Reduction of Emergency Use in Power Plants
752$
51,302,988
Transmission and Distribution Improvements
4,779$ 326,234,074
Wind-powered Electricity Generation
4,730$ 750,000,000
Solar-powered Electricity Generation
2,340$ 500,000,000
TOTALS
19,604 TJ/yr $ 2,122,427,584
Additional Avoided T&D Losses (based on 2010 Rates)
1,824 TJ/yr
TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SAVINGS/GENERATION
21,428 TJ/yr
Fraction of 2018 Total Electricity Generation
38.3%
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
99.05
Investment required, $ per MWh/yr of Electricity Supply Savings/Generation$
357

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MEASURE TO SAVE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS:
Estimated Energy
Energy Savings
Potential, TJ/yr
1,254
5.2%
20.5%

MeasureImprovements in 2 1/2 tonne truck fleet
Fraction of 2020 Total Refined Products Use
Fract. of 2020 Total Refined Prod. Use in Road Transport
Investment required, $ per GJ/yr of refined products Savings
Investment required, $ per toe/yr of petroleum products Savings

Total EstimatedInvestment
Cost, $US 2019291,389,650$$

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS REDUCTION (Rough Calculations)SulfurOxides(tonnes)
MEASURES TO SAVE COAL
MEASURES TO SAVE ELECTRICITY

62,839
11,142

Nitrogen
Oxides(tonnes)

39,146
7,419

Carbon Dioxide(tonnes)

9,834,094
1,916,890

Sources/Notes:
1 From https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm but not used--costs already updated to2019 USD in efficiency estimates work sheets.

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Estimates of Acid Gas and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 1990
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED WOOD/
PROD. BIOMASS

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

73.08
0.01
0
0.00350.299
0.24

CHARCOAL

000.016 0.001867
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel
1990
COAL &COKE

REFINED WOOD/
PROD. BIOMASSCHARCOAL

1.25E+08
2.20E+03
7.18E+05
5.83E+03
7.91E+05
4.93E+05

1.00E+07
1.32E+03
0.00E+00
4.61E+02
3.94E+04
3.15E+04

0.00E+00
2.18E+03
0.00E+00
9.52E+02
0.00E+00
1.65E+04

0.00E+00
5.55E+00
2.50E+02
6.94E+01
0.00E+00
1.20E+03

TOTAL
1.35E+08
5.70E+03
7.18E+05
7.31E+03
8.31E+05
5.42E+05

CARBONDIOXIDEMETHANENITROUSOXIDESULFUROXIDESNITROGENOXIDES

TOTAL

1.35E+08

7.24E+05 7.31E+03 8.31E+05

5.42E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00 7.18E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00 6.95E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.35E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.65E+07 1.14E+03 1.77E+03 2.29E+05

1.45E+05

2.97E+07
6.01E+06
0.00E+00
3.31E+05
4.36E+05
0.00E+00

1.87E+05
3.85E+04
0.00E+00
2.11E+03
1.78E+03
0.00E+00

1.17E+05
2.40E+04
8.40E+02
1.32E+03
1.42E+03
0.00E+00

9.84E+07 4.81E+03 5.54E+03 6.02E+05

3.97E+05

6.61E+07
2.77E+06
1.85E+07
1.30E+06
3.37E+05
4.05E+06
3.12E+06
4.35E+05
1.73E+06

2.63E+05
9.26E+03
8.44E+04
1.03E+04
1.18E+03
1.53E+04
1.26E+04
1.42E+03
0.00E+00

GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

7.21E+02
1.07E+02
2.50E+02
6.54E+00
5.96E+01
0.00E+00

1.45E+03
4.06E+02
1.77E+03
7.86E+02
3.33E+01
2.16E+02
8.26E+01
5.95E+01
0.00E+00

A1- 490

1.40E+03
2.84E+02
4.86E+01
1.56E+01
2.09E+01
0.00E+00

3.13E+03
1.44E+02
1.50E+03
3.76E+02
1.61E+01
1.92E+02
1.59E+02
2.08E+01
0.00E+00

4.19E+05
1.13E+04
1.18E+05
7.45E+03
1.63E+03
2.32E+04
2.00E+04
1.78E+03
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SO x , CO 2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SO x emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SO x emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SO x .
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (SO x , NO x , and CO 2 ) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NO x emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NO x
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NO x factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NO x emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NO x emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NO x from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.

A1- 491

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF AGGREGATE SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
731
Diesel772
Heavy Oil
1,069
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
263
LPG
276
Aviation Gasoline
26
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ
Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SOx
Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

kTE
782
799
1026
275
312
28

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.150
100%
2
0.299

A1- 492

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
1,325,571

PROD. BIOMASS
26,622 162,092

COAL
-

COKE
PROD. BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.18E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

1,301,288
68,392
44,10826,622(377,571)

82,762

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(294,926)(63,092)(21,947)
110,742FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTIONBALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

149,909
12,183REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

6.95E+05
2.35E+04(9,920)(9,920)(3,417)(73)(16,136)(5,960)948,000

109,384

2,976

3.45E+07 2.04E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.14E+02 2.80E+02 0.00E+00 2.50E+02

2,976

2.81E+07 1.60E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.01E+02 2.19E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-2.13E-09-2.91E-13
6.01E+06
1.07E+02
2.50E+02
3.26E+05 5.36E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.81E+00

7.33E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 4.36E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.96E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
152,172

2,976* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 493

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

948,009109,384

147,995

2,973

671,661
324,615
68,13923,994
11,203
4,026
23,72029,38561,980124,600

28,393
7,571
4,573
12,600
3,650

1,600

-

6.40E+07 2.08E+06
3.09E+07 0.00E+00
6.50E+06 5.53E+05
2.29E+06 3.34E+05
1.07E+06 0.00E+00
3.84E+05 0.00E+00
2.26E+06 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 9.21E+05
2.80E+06 0.00E+00
5.91E+06 0.00E+00
1.19E+07 2.67E+05

0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

1.14E+03
5.52E+02
1.16E+02
4.08E+01
1.90E+01
6.84E+00
4.03E+01
0.00E+00
5.00E+01
1.05E+02
2.12E+02

2.84E+02
0.00E+00
7.57E+01
4.57E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.26E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.65E+01

2.56E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.56E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

1,672
1,672

-

-

37,89632,571
1,949
1,253
1,123
1,000

0.00E+00 2.77E+06
0.00E+00 2.38E+06
0.00E+00 1.42E+05
0.00E+00 9.16E+04
0.00E+00 8.21E+04
0.00E+00 7.31E+04

0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.79E+02
3.26E+02
1.95E+01
1.25E+01
1.12E+01
1.00E+01

2.68E+01
2.68E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

189,274
129,155
60,119

6,600
6,256
344

86,14086,140

2,973
1,814
1,159

1.80E+07 4.82E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.22E+02 6.60E+01 1.38E+03 5.55E+00
1.23E+07 4.57E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.20E+02 6.26E+01 0.00E+00 3.39E+00
5.73E+06 2.51E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.02E+02 3.44E+00 1.38E+03 2.16E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

9,750

44,95044,950

-

9,750

5,005
2,619
2,386

9.30E+05 3.66E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.66E+01 5.01E+01 7.19E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.91E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.62E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
9.30E+05 1.74E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.66E+01 2.39E+01 7.19E+02 0.00E+00

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

1,132
1,132

3,137
2,681
456

-

-

1.08E+05 2.29E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.92E+00 3.14E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.96E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.68E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.08E+05 3.33E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.92E+00 4.56E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

29,828--890
28,938

16,533
6,585
263
2,648
6,937
100

2.84E+06 1.21E+06
0.00E+00 4.81E+05
0.00E+00 1.92E+04
0.00E+00 1.94E+05
0.00E+00 5.07E+05
8.49E+04 0.00E+00
2.76E+06 7.31E+03

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

32,646

98

1,632

-

3.11E+06 7.16E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.55E+01

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,600

5,950
13,7185,771

9.04E+07 7.99E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.59E+03 1.04E+03 2.18E+03 5.55E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

5.07E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.51E+00
4.92E+01

1.65E+02
6.58E+01
2.63E+00
2.65E+01
6.94E+01
0.00E+00
1.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.79E-01 2.61E+01 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 4.35E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.95E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
12,0001.31E+06 4.19E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 494

NITROUS O
UNITS:Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
1,325,571

PROD. BIOMASS
26,622 162,092

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

1,301,288
68,392
44,10826,622

149,909
12,183(9,920)(377,571)

82,762(294,926)(63,092)(21,947)
110,742FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(9,920)(3,417)(73)(16,136)(5,960)948,000

109,384

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLossesREFINEDSULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2,976

1.63E+03 9.79E+01 0.00E+00 4.86E+01 2.21E+05 8.37E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.38E+05 6.69E+03 0.00E+00 8.40E+02

2,976

1.33E+03 7.68E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.80E+05 6.56E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.12E+05 5.25E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-1.02E-13-8.70E-12-6.96E-12
2.84E+02
3.85E+04
2.40E+04
4.86E+01
0.00E+00
8.40E+02
1.54E+01

2.57E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.09E+03 2.19E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.30E+03 1.75E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 2.09E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.78E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.42E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
152,172

2,976

A1- 495

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

948,009109,384

147,995

2,973

671,661
324,615
68,13923,994
11,203
4,026
23,72029,38561,980124,600

28,393
7,571
4,573
12,600
3,650

1,600

-

3.02E+03
1.46E+03
3.07E+02
1.08E+02
5.04E+01
1.81E+01
1.07E+02
0.00E+00
1.32E+02
2.79E+02
5.61E+02

9.94E+01
0.00E+00
2.65E+01
1.60E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.41E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.28E+01

1.12E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.12E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.10E+05
1.98E+05
4.16E+04
1.47E+04
6.84E+03
2.46E+03
1.45E+04
0.00E+00
1.79E+04
3.79E+04
7.61E+04

8.49E+03
0.00E+00
2.26E+03
1.37E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.77E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.09E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.56E+05
1.24E+05
2.59E+04
9.13E+03
4.26E+03
1.53E+03
9.03E+03
0.00E+00
1.12E+04
2.36E+04
4.74E+04

6.79E+03
0.00E+00
1.81E+03
1.09E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.01E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.72E+02

1.94E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.94E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

1,672
1,672

-

-

37,89632,571
1,949
1,253
1,123
1,000

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.33E+02
1.14E+02
6.82E+00
4.39E+00
3.93E+00
3.50E+00

1.17E+01
1.17E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.13E+04
9.74E+03
5.83E+02
3.75E+02
3.36E+02
2.99E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.06E+03
7.78E+03
4.66E+02
2.99E+02
2.69E+02
2.39E+02

2.02E+02
2.02E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

189,274
129,155
60,119

6,600
6,256
344

86,14086,140

2,973
1,814
1,159

8.52E+02 2.31E+01 6.03E+02 2.08E+01 1.16E+05 1.97E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.20E+04 1.58E+03 1.04E+04 3.60E+02
5.81E+02 2.19E+01 0.00E+00 1.27E+01 7.89E+04 1.87E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.91E+04 1.50E+03 0.00E+00 2.19E+02
2.71E+02 1.20E+00 6.03E+02 8.12E+00 3.67E+04 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.29E+04 8.21E+01 1.04E+04 1.40E+02

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

9,750

44,95044,950

-

9,750

5,005
2,619
2,386

4.39E+01 1.75E+01 3.15E+02 0.00E+00 5.96E+03 1.50E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.71E+03 1.20E+03 5.44E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 9.17E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.83E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.26E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.39E+01 8.35E+00 3.15E+02 0.00E+00 5.96E+03 7.14E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.71E+03 5.70E+02 5.44E+03 0.00E+00

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

1,132
1,132

3,137
2,681
456

-

-

5.09E+00 1.10E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.91E+02 9.38E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.31E+02 7.50E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 9.38E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.02E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.41E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.09E+00 1.60E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.91E+02 1.36E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.31E+02 1.09E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

29,828

16,533
6,585
263
2,648
6,937
100

-

-

1.34E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.01E+00
1.30E+02

5.79E+01
2.30E+01
9.21E-01
9.27E+00
2.43E+01
0.00E+00
3.50E-01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

32,646

1,632-

1.47E+02

3.43E-01 1.14E+01 0.00E+00 1.99E+04 2.93E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+04 2.34E+01 1.98E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

890
28,938NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

98

1,600

5,950
13,718

5,771

4.20E+03 3.63E+02 9.52E+02 2.08E+01 5.71E+05 3.10E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.55E+05 2.48E+04 1.65E+04 3.60E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.82E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.44E+02
1.77E+04

4.94E+03
1.97E+03
7.87E+01
7.92E+02
2.07E+03
0.00E+00
2.99E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.13E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.39E+02
1.10E+04

3.95E+03
1.57E+03
6.29E+01
6.33E+02
1.66E+03
0.00E+00
2.39E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 2.08E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.78E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.42E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
12,0000.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 496

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 1996
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

73.91
0.01
0
0.0035
0.380
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.001867
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel
1996
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

6.42E+07
1.14E+03
3.71E+05
3.02E+03
4.09E+05
2.55E+05

5.29E+06
7.07E+02
0.00E+00
2.47E+02
2.32E+04
1.69E+04

0.00E+00
2.27E+03
0.00E+00
9.93E+02
0.00E+00
1.72E+04

0.00E+00
4.43E+00
1.99E+02
5.54E+01
0.00E+00
9.58E+02

TOTAL
6.95E+07
4.12E+03
3.71E+05
4.31E+03
4.33E+05
2.90E+05

METHANE
3.75E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
4.31E+03

SULFUROXIDES
4.33E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.90E+05

Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
6.95E+07

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00 3.71E+05

0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00 3.64E+05
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 6.47E+03

0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.52E+07 8.91E+02

1.23E+03 1.59E+05

9.97E+04

2.17E+07
3.12E+06
0.00E+00
2.47E+05
1.66E+05
0.00E+00

6.08E+02
5.56E+01
1.99E+02
5.83E+00
2.27E+01
0.00E+00

1.02E+03 1.37E+05
1.47E+02 2.00E+04
3.88E+01 0.00E+00
1.17E+01 1.57E+03
7.93E+00 6.78E+02
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

8.51E+04
1.24E+04
6.70E+02
9.78E+02
5.41E+02
0.00E+00

4.43E+07 3.43E+03

3.08E+03 2.74E+05

1.90E+05

2.45E+07
1.22E+06
1.17E+07
4.00E+05
1.21E+05
3.38E+06
2.51E+06
0.00E+00
4.26E+05

1.16E+03 1.56E+05
6.47E+01 5.00E+03
1.39E+03 7.49E+04
1.22E+02 2.34E+03
5.78E+00 6.10E+02
1.99E+02 1.94E+04
1.37E+02 1.60E+04
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00

9.75E+04
4.10E+03
6.13E+04
3.30E+03
4.32E+02
1.35E+04
1.03E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 497

5.22E+02
1.81E+02
2.11E+03
2.53E+02
1.08E+01
2.63E+02
8.77E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
400
Diesel317
Heavy Oil
789
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
51
LPG
85
Aviation Gasoline
21
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
428
328
757
53
96
22

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.190
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 498

0.380

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
682,118

PROD.
38,578BIOMASS
161,880

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.71E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

682,630
11,614
12,125

39,100521

148,292
13,588REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

3.64E+05
6.47E+03

6,412(251,225)

11,979

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(207,721)(32,678)(25,467)
39,874FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,916)(7,916)2,375

2.32E+07 2.06E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.13E+02 2.79E+02 0.00E+00 1.99E+02

2,375

1.98E+07 1.88E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.53E+02 2.55E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.12E+06
5.56E+01
1.99E+02(2,468)(163)

2.35E+05 1.21E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.20E+00 1.63E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00(8,358)(2,266)

0.00E+00 1.66E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.27E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

430,893

50,558

153,964

2,375* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 499

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSUNITS: TONNES (TECOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

430,897

44,146

149,061

250,538
124,977
29,981
6,515
3,697
1,329
7,828
832
9,697
20,45345,230

8,655
3,331
1,129
3,326
869

581

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

884
884

-

16,707
14,528
779
501
899
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

121,735
92,74728,988

1,785
1,649
136

117,606
15,135
102,471

2,374
1,455
919

1.16E+07 1.30E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.07E+02 1.79E+01 1.88E+03 4.43E+00
8.84E+06 1.20E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.58E+02 1.65E+01 2.42E+02 2.72E+00
2.76E+06 9.96E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.93E+01 1.36E+00 1.64E+03 1.72E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,183

14,674
14,674

-

3,183

1,319
690
629

3.03E+05 9.64E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.41E+00 1.32E+01 2.35E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.05E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.90E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.03E+05 4.60E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.41E+00 6.29E+00 2.35E+02 0.00E+00

509
509

998
804
193

-

-

4.86E+04 7.29E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.66E-01 9.98E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.88E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.04E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.86E+04 1.41E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.66E-01 1.93E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

25,365

5,498
5,498

-

623
24,742

13,186
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
95

2.42E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.94E+04
2.36E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

26,180

131

2,618

-

2.50E+06 9.57E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.45E+01 1.31E+00 4.19E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,365

4.11E+07 3.23E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.27E+02 4.28E+02 2.27E+03 4.43E+00-

2.39E+07
1.19E+07
2.86E+06
6.21E+05
3.52E+05
1.27E+05
7.46E+05
7.93E+04
9.24E+05
1.95E+06
4.31E+06

6.33E+05
0.00E+00
2.43E+05
8.25E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.43E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.35E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.26E+02
2.12E+02
5.10E+01
1.11E+01
6.28E+00
2.26E+00
1.33E+01
1.41E+00
1.65E+01
3.48E+01
7.69E+01

8.66E+01
0.00E+00
3.33E+01
1.13E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.33E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.69E+00

9.29E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.29E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.22E+06
1.06E+06
5.70E+04
3.66E+04
6.57E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.67E+02
1.45E+02
7.79E+00
5.01E+00
8.99E+00
0.00E+00

1.41E+01
1.41E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

581

3,386

2,374

9.64E+05
4.19E+05
1.54E+04
1.38E+05
3.84E+05
0.00E+00
6.94E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.31E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.06E+00
4.21E+01

1.32E+02
5.73E+01
2.11E+00
1.89E+01
5.26E+01
0.00E+00
9.50E-01

8.80E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.80E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
7,200

3.23E+05 1.04E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 500

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
682,118

PROD.
38,578BIOMASS
161,880

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

682,630
11,614
12,125

39,100521

148,292
13,5886,412(251,225)

11,979

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(207,721)(32,678)(25,467)
39,874FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,916)(7,916)(2,468)(163)(8,358)(2,266)

430,893

50,5582,375

1.09E+03 9.76E+01 0.00E+00 3.88E+01 1.48E+05 1.04E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.24E+04 6.67E+03 0.00E+00 6.70E+02

2,375

9.35E+02 8.91E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.27E+05 9.67E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.90E+04 6.09E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.47E+02
2.00E+04
1.24E+04
3.88E+01
0.00E+00
6.70E+02
1.11E+01

5.71E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.51E+03 6.20E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.39E+02 3.90E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 7.93E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.78E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.41E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

153,964

2,375

A1- 501

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

430,897

44,146

149,061

250,538
124,977
29,981
6,515
3,697
1,329
7,828
832
9,697
20,45345,230

8,655
3,331
1,129
3,326
869

581

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

884
884

-

16,707
14,528
779
501
899
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

121,735
92,74728,988

1,785
1,649
136

117,606
15,135
102,471

2,374
1,455
919

5.48E+02 6.25E+00 8.23E+02 1.66E+01 7.44E+04 5.34E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.63E+04 4.27E+02 1.42E+04 2.87E+02
4.17E+02 5.77E+00 1.06E+02 1.02E+01 5.66E+04 4.93E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.53E+04 3.94E+02 1.83E+03 1.76E+02
1.30E+02 4.77E-01 7.17E+02 6.44E+00 1.77E+04 4.07E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.10E+04 3.26E+01 1.24E+04 1.11E+02

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,183

14,674
14,674

-

3,183

1,319
690
629

1.43E+01 4.62E+00 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 1.94E+03 3.95E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.21E+03 3.15E+02 1.78E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.42E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.06E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.65E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.43E+01 2.20E+00 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 1.94E+03 1.88E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.21E+03 1.50E+02 1.78E+03 0.00E+00

509
509

998
804
193

-

-

2.29E+00 3.49E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.11E+02 2.98E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.94E+02 2.38E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.82E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.41E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.92E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.29E+00 6.77E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.11E+02 5.79E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.94E+02 4.62E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

25,365

5,498
5,498

-

623
24,742

13,186
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
95

1.14E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.80E+00
1.11E+02

4.62E+01
2.01E+01
7.37E-01
6.60E+00
1.84E+01
0.00E+00
3.33E-01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

26,180

131

2,618

-

1.18E+02

4.58E-01 1.83E+01 0.00E+00 1.60E+04 3.91E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.96E+03 3.13E+01 3.17E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,365

1.92E+03 1.50E+02 9.93E+02 1.66E+01 2.61E+05 1.28E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.63E+05 1.02E+04 1.72E+04 2.87E+02-

1.13E+03
5.62E+02
1.35E+02
2.93E+01
1.66E+01
5.98E+00
3.52E+01
3.74E+00
4.36E+01
9.20E+01
2.04E+02

3.03E+01
0.00E+00
1.17E+01
3.95E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.16E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.04E+00

4.07E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.07E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.53E+05
7.63E+04
1.83E+04
3.98E+03
2.26E+03
8.12E+02
4.78E+03
5.08E+02
5.92E+03
1.25E+04
2.76E+04

2.59E+03
0.00E+00
9.96E+02
3.38E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.95E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.60E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.53E+04
4.76E+04
1.14E+04
2.48E+03
1.41E+03
5.06E+02
2.98E+03
3.16E+02
3.69E+03
7.78E+03
1.72E+04

2.07E+03
0.00E+00
7.96E+02
2.70E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.95E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.08E+02

7.03E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.03E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.85E+01
5.08E+01
2.73E+00
1.75E+00
3.15E+00
0.00E+00

6.19E+00
6.19E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.00E+03
4.34E+03
2.33E+02
1.50E+02
2.69E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.99E+03
3.47E+03
1.86E+02
1.20E+02
2.15E+02
0.00E+00

1.07E+02
1.07E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

581

3,386

2,374

3.85E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.85E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.55E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.81E+02
1.51E+04

3.94E+03
1.71E+03
6.30E+01
5.64E+02
1.57E+03
0.00E+00
2.84E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.65E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.37E+02
9.41E+03

3.15E+03
1.37E+03
5.03E+01
4.51E+02
1.26E+03
0.00E+00
2.27E+01

6.65E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.65E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
7,200

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 502

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2000
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &
COKE

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

REFINED
PROD.

73.70
0.01
0
0.0035
0.388
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2000
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.19E+07
5.67E+02
1.84E+05
1.50E+03
2.04E+05
1.27E+05

3.92E+06
5.28E+02
0.00E+00
1.85E+02
1.73E+04
1.26E+04

0.00E+00
2.36E+03
0.00E+00
1.03E+03
0.00E+00
1.79E+04

0.00E+00
3.39E+00
1.52E+02
4.24E+01
0.00E+00
7.33E+02

TOTAL
3.58E+07
3.46E+03
1.85E+05
2.76E+03
2.21E+05
1.58E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
3.58E+07

SULFUROXIDES
2.21E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
1.58E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00 1.84E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.79E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.97E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.94E+06 4.11E+02 3.11E+02 3.65E+04

2.33E+04

4.21E+06
1.53E+06
0.00E+00
1.23E+05
7.31E+04
0.00E+00

2.56E+04
9.83E+03
0.00E+00
7.55E+02
2.99E+02
0.00E+00

1.59E+04
6.12E+03
5.13E+02
4.69E+02
2.39E+02
0.00E+00

2.99E+07 3.20E+03 2.45E+03 1.85E+05

1.35E+05

1.51E+07
6.14E+05
9.21E+06
3.40E+05
1.01E+05
2.84E+06
1.50E+06
0.00E+00
1.56E+05

5.98E+04
2.07E+03
5.16E+04
3.08E+03
3.59E+02
1.17E+04
6.34E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 503

METHANE
1.88E+05

2.16E+02
2.74E+01
1.52E+02
5.59E+00
1.00E+01
0.00E+00
3.77E+02
9.20E+01
2.13E+03
2.49E+02
9.00E+00
2.65E+02
7.74E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

NITROUS
OXIDE
2.76E+03

1.99E+02
7.24E+01
2.97E+01
5.82E+00
3.50E+00
0.00E+00
7.17E+02
3.29E+01
1.30E+03
1.19E+02
4.80E+00
1.86E+02
9.25E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.49E+04
2.51E+03
5.87E+04
2.02E+03
5.06E+02
1.63E+04
9.57E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
191
Diesel
278
Heavy Oil
638
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
39
LPG
145
Aviation Gasoline
16
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
204
288
612
41
164
17

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.194
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 504

0.388

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
338,806

PROD.
38,765

BIOMASS
162,993

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.84E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

336,168
11,952
9,314

41,7783,013

150,543
12,450

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

1.79E+05
4.97E+03(1,245)(52,861)(721)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(31,665)(16,093)(16,206)
16,877FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,051)(6,051)

1,815

4.65E+06 1.30E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.29E+01 1.76E+02 0.00E+00 1.52E+02

1,815

3.02E+06 1.19E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.38E+01 1.62E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.53E+06
2.74E+01
1.52E+02

(988)

(391)

9.42E+04 2.88E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.68E+00 3.91E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00(4,116)(1,001)

0.00E+00 7.31E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.00E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

285,945

38,044

156,942

1,815* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 505

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

285,944

39,290

153,590

149,673
67,382
19,096
2,070
2,325
836
4,924
869
6,100
21,383
24,68911,726
7,024
343
3,478
882

317

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

504
504

-

8,395
6,548
585
476
786
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

95,05573,24621,808

2,079
1,924
156

121,601
19,021
102,580

1,818
1,117
701

9.06E+06 1.52E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.62E+02 2.08E+01 1.95E+03 3.39E+00
6.98E+06 1.41E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.25E+02 1.92E+01 3.04E+02 2.09E+00
2.08E+06 1.14E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.71E+01 1.56E+00 1.64E+03 1.31E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

2,827

14,663
14,663

-

2,827

968
507
461

2.70E+05 7.08E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.81E+00 9.68E+00 2.35E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.70E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.07E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.70E+05 3.37E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.81E+00 4.61E+00 2.35E+02 0.00E+00

423
423

828
668
161

-

-

4.03E+04 6.05E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.19E-01 8.28E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.88E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.68E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.03E+04 1.17E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.19E-01 1.61E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

21,308

7,379
7,379

-

401
20,908

11,094
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
85

2.03E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.82E+04
1.99E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

15,629

78

3,126

-

1.49E+06 5.71E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.66E+01

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

4,121

2.73E+07 2.63E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.84E+02 3.52E+02 2.36E+03 3.39E+00-

1.43E+07
6.42E+06
1.82E+06
1.97E+05
2.22E+05
7.97E+04
4.69E+05
8.29E+04
5.81E+05
2.04E+06
2.35E+06

8.57E+05
0.00E+00
5.13E+05
2.51E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.54E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.45E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.54E+02
1.15E+02
3.25E+01
3.52E+00
3.95E+00
1.42E+00
8.37E+00
1.48E+00
1.04E+01
3.64E+01
4.20E+01

1.17E+02
0.00E+00
7.02E+01
3.43E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.48E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.82E+00

5.07E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.07E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.14E+05
4.79E+05
4.27E+04
3.48E+04
5.75E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.39E+01
6.55E+01
5.85E+00
4.76E+00
7.86E+00
0.00E+00

8.06E+00
8.06E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

317

1,029

1,818

8.11E+05
2.97E+05
1.08E+04
9.99E+04
3.97E+05
0.00E+00
6.21E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.62E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.81E-01
3.55E+01

1.11E+02
4.06E+01
1.48E+00
1.37E+01
5.43E+01
0.00E+00
8.50E-01

1.18E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.18E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.81E-01 5.00E+01 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.81E+04 5.76E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 506

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
338,806

PROD.
38,765

BIOMASS
162,993

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

336,168
11,952
9,314

41,7783,013

150,543
12,450(1,245)(52,861)(721)

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(31,665)(16,093)(16,206)
16,877FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,051)(6,051)

1,815

2.19E+02 6.16E+01 0.00E+00 2.97E+01 2.98E+04 6.73E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.85E+04 4.21E+03 0.00E+00 5.13E+02

1,815

1.42E+02 5.67E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.93E+04 6.28E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.20E+04 3.87E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.24E+01
9.83E+03
6.12E+03
2.97E+01
0.00E+00
5.13E+02

(988)

(391)

4.45E+00 1.37E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.04E+02 1.52E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.76E+02 9.35E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00(4,116)(1,001)

0.00E+00 3.50E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.99E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.39E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

285,945

38,044

156,942

1,815

A1- 507

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

285,944

39,290

153,590

149,673
67,382
19,096
2,070
2,325
836
4,924
869
6,100
21,383
24,68911,726
7,024
343
3,478
882

317

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

504
504

-

8,395
6,548
585
476
786
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

95,05573,24621,808

2,079
1,924
156

121,601
19,021
102,580

1,818
1,117
701

4.28E+02 7.28E+00 8.51E+02 1.27E+01 5.81E+04 6.22E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.62E+04 4.97E+02 1.47E+04 2.20E+02
3.30E+02 6.73E+00 1.33E+02 7.82E+00 4.47E+04 5.75E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.79E+04 4.60E+02 2.30E+03 1.35E+02
9.81E+01 5.45E-01 7.18E+02 4.91E+00 1.33E+04 4.66E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.30E+03 3.72E+01 1.24E+04 8.48E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

2,827

14,663
14,663

-

2,827

968
507
461

1.27E+01 3.39E+00 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 1.73E+03 2.90E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.08E+03 2.31E+02 1.77E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.77E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.52E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.21E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.27E+01 1.62E+00 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 1.73E+03 1.38E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.08E+03 1.10E+02 1.77E+03 0.00E+00

423
423

828
668
161

-

-

1.90E+00 2.90E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.58E+02 2.48E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.61E+02 1.98E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.34E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.00E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.60E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.90E+00 5.62E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.58E+02 4.80E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.61E+02 3.84E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

21,308

7,379
7,379

-

401
20,908

11,094
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
85

9.59E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.80E+00
9.41E+01

3.88E+01
1.42E+01
5.16E-01
4.78E+00
1.90E+01
0.00E+00
2.98E-01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

15,629

78

3,126

-

7.03E+01

2.74E-01 2.19E+01 0.00E+00 9.55E+03 2.34E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.95E+03 1.87E+01 3.78E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

4,121

1.28E+03 1.23E+02 1.03E+03 1.27E+01 1.74E+05 1.05E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.08E+05 8.41E+03 1.79E+04 2.20E+02-

6.74E+02
3.03E+02
8.59E+01
9.31E+00
1.05E+01
3.76E+00
2.22E+01
3.91E+00
2.74E+01
9.62E+01
1.11E+02

4.10E+01
0.00E+00
2.46E+01
1.20E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.22E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.09E+00

2.22E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.22E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.14E+04
4.12E+04
1.17E+04
1.26E+03
1.42E+03
5.10E+02
3.01E+03
5.31E+02
3.73E+03
1.31E+04
1.51E+04

3.51E+03
0.00E+00
2.10E+03
1.03E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.04E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.64E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.70E+04
2.56E+04
7.27E+03
7.87E+02
8.85E+02
3.18E+02
1.87E+03
3.31E+02
2.32E+03
8.14E+03
9.39E+03

2.80E+03
0.00E+00
1.68E+03
8.20E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.31E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.11E+02

3.84E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.84E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.94E+01
2.29E+01
2.05E+00
1.67E+00
2.75E+00
0.00E+00

3.53E+00
3.53E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.51E+03
1.96E+03
1.75E+02
1.42E+02
2.35E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.01E+03
1.56E+03
1.40E+02
1.14E+02
1.88E+02
0.00E+00

6.10E+01
6.10E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

317

1,029

1,818

5.17E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.17E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.30E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.45E+02
1.28E+04

3.32E+03
1.22E+03
4.41E+01
4.09E+02
1.62E+03
0.00E+00
2.54E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.11E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.52E+02
7.96E+03

2.65E+03
9.71E+02
3.53E+01
3.27E+02
1.30E+03
0.00E+00
2.03E+01

8.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.93E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 508

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2005
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

73.70
0.01
0
0.0035
0.313
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2005
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.68E+07
6.53E+02
2.75E+05
1.73E+03
2.35E+05
1.46E+05

3.37E+06
4.53E+02
0.00E+00
1.59E+02
1.37E+04
1.08E+04

0.00E+00
2.79E+03
0.00E+00
1.22E+03
0.00E+00
2.11E+04

0.00E+00
3.43E+00
1.55E+02
4.30E+01
0.00E+00
7.43E+02

TOTAL
4.01E+07
3.90E+03
2.75E+05
3.15E+03
2.48E+05
1.79E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category
CARBONDIOXIDEMETHANENITROUSOXIDESULFUROXIDESNITROGENOXIDES

TOTAL

4.01E+07

2.79E+05

3.15E+03

2.48E+05

1.79E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

2.75E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.32E+05
0.00E+00
4.26E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.09E+07

4.35E+02

5.46E+02

6.84E+04

4.36E+04

8.65E+06
1.98E+06
0.00E+00
1.86E+05
9.68E+04
0.00E+00

2.27E+02
3.54E+01
1.55E+02
3.94E+00
1.32E+01
0.00E+00

4.09E+02
9.36E+01
3.01E+01
8.80E+00
4.63E+00
0.00E+00

5.41E+04
1.27E+04
0.00E+00
1.18E+03
3.96E+02
0.00E+00

3.41E+04
7.91E+03
5.21E+02
7.40E+02
3.16E+02
0.00E+00

ENERGY DEMAND

2.92E+07

3.62E+03

2.60E+03

1.80E+05

1.35E+05

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

1.50E+07
8.20E+05
8.25E+06
5.89E+05
1.11E+05
2.69E+06
1.59E+06
0.00E+00
1.94E+05

3.46E+02
1.25E+02
2.32E+03
4.33E+02
1.00E+01
2.72E+02
1.09E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.09E+02
4.50E+01
1.34E+03
2.08E+02
5.27E+00
1.83E+02
1.10E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.44E+04
3.35E+03
5.25E+04
3.57E+03
5.53E+02
1.53E+04
1.01E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.93E+04
2.78E+03
4.93E+04
5.41E+03
3.93E+02
1.11E+04
6.92E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLosses

A1- 509

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
156
Diesel381
Heavy Oil
334
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
71
LPG
58
Aviation Gasoline
11
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
167
394
321
74
65
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.157
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 5100.313

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
390,916

PROD.
23,196

BIOMASS
189,208

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.75E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

434,40936,40579,89823,383
188

182,194
7,014

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.32E+05
4.26E+04(207)(112,260)

12,764

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(84,246)(20,795)(8,409)22,568FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,150)(6,150)(1,900)(71)(5,319)(1,324)

278,657

35,9591,845

1.02E+07 7.22E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.82E+02 9.80E+01 0.00E+00 1.55E+02

1,845

8.03E+06 6.20E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.43E+02 8.41E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-2.68E-10-3.64E-14
1.98E+06
3.54E+01
1.55E+02
1.81E+05 5.21E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.23E+00

7.07E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 9.68E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.32E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

183,058

1,845* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 511NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EM
UNITS: TONNESCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

278,654

36,166180,244

150,376
52,71723,566
3,010
2,265
814
15,9403,528
6,582
20,825
21,128

8,640
3,568
512
3,528
1,032

271

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

816
816

-

11,216
8,958
935
526
797
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

84,88667,806
17,079

2,169
2,016
153

134,550
24,739109,810

1,836
1,132
704

8.09E+06 1.58E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.44E+02 2.17E+01 2.15E+03 3.43E+00
6.46E+06 1.47E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.15E+02 2.02E+01 3.96E+02 2.11E+00
1.63E+06 1.12E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.90E+01 1.53E+00 1.76E+03 1.31E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,282

25,78425,784

-

5,282

1,164
609
555

5.04E+05 8.51E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.98E+00 1.16E+01 4.13E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.45E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.09E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.04E+05 4.06E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.98E+00 5.55E+00 4.13E+02 0.00E+00

453
453

924
751
173

-

-

4.32E+04 6.75E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.70E-01 9.24E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.49E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.51E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.32E+04 1.26E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.70E-01 1.73E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,615

7,871
7,871

-

401
19,215

11,253
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
85

1.87E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.82E+04
1.83E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,506

165

4,952

-

1.57E+06 1.21E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.81E+01 1.65E+00 7.92E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

635

2.66E+07 2.64E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.71E+02 3.55E+02 2.79E+03 3.43E+00-

1.43E+07
5.03E+06
2.25E+06
2.87E+05
2.16E+05
7.76E+04
1.52E+06
3.36E+05
6.28E+05
1.99E+06
2.01E+06

6.31E+05
0.00E+00
2.61E+05
3.74E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.58E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.54E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.56E+02
8.96E+01
4.01E+01
5.12E+00
3.85E+00
1.38E+00
2.71E+01
6.00E+00
1.12E+01
3.54E+01
3.59E+01

8.64E+01
0.00E+00
3.57E+01
5.12E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.53E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.03E+01

4.34E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.34E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.20E+05
6.55E+05
6.84E+04
3.85E+04
5.82E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.12E+02
8.96E+01
9.35E+00
5.26E+00
7.97E+00
0.00E+00

1.31E+01
1.31E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

271

1,536

1,836

8.22E+05
2.58E+05
9.43E+03
1.46E+05
4.03E+05
0.00E+00
6.21E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.33E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.81E-01
3.27E+01

1.13E+02
3.52E+01
1.29E+00
2.00E+01
5.51E+01
0.00E+00
8.50E-01

1.26E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.26E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

1.46E+05 4.71E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 512Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
390,916

PROD.
23,196

BIOMASS
189,208

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

434,40936,40579,89823,383
188

182,194
7,014

(207)
(112,260)

12,764

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(84,246)(20,795)(8,409)22,568FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,150)(6,150)(1,900)(71)(5,319)(1,324)

278,657

35,9591,845

4.81E+02 3.43E+01 0.00E+00 3.01E+01 6.53E+04 3.05E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.07E+04 2.34E+03 0.00E+00 5.21E+02

1,845

3.79E+02 2.94E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.15E+04 2.63E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.21E+04 2.01E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-1.27E-14-1.14E-12-8.69E-13
9.36E+01
1.27E+04
7.91E+03
3.01E+01
0.00E+00
5.21E+02
8.55E+00

2.47E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.16E+03 2.21E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.23E+02 1.69E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 4.63E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.96E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.16E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

183,058

1,845

A1- 513Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

278,654

36,166180,244

150,376
52,71723,566
3,010
2,265
814
15,9403,528
6,582
20,825
21,128

8,640
3,568
512
3,528
1,032

271

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

816
816

-

11,216
8,958
935
526
797
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

84,88667,806
17,079

2,169
2,016
153

134,550
24,739109,810

1,836
1,132
704

3.82E+02 7.59E+00 9.42E+02 1.29E+01 5.18E+04 6.49E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.23E+04 5.18E+02 1.63E+04 2.22E+02
3.05E+02 7.06E+00 1.73E+02 7.93E+00 4.14E+04 6.03E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.58E+04 4.82E+02 2.99E+03 1.37E+02
7.69E+01 5.34E-01 7.69E+02 4.93E+00 1.04E+04 4.57E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.50E+03 3.65E+01 1.33E+04 8.52E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,282

25,78425,784

-

5,282

1,164
609
555

2.38E+01 4.08E+00 1.80E+02 0.00E+00 3.23E+03 3.48E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.01E+03 2.78E+02 3.12E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.13E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.82E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.46E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.38E+01 1.94E+00 1.80E+02 0.00E+00 3.23E+03 1.66E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.01E+03 1.33E+02 3.12E+03 0.00E+00

453
453

924
751
173

-

-

2.04E+00 3.23E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.77E+02 2.76E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.72E+02 2.21E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.63E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.25E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.79E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.04E+00 6.05E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.77E+02 5.17E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.72E+02 4.13E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,615

7,871
7,871

-

401
19,215

11,253
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
85

8.83E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.80E+00
8.65E+01

3.94E+01
1.23E+01
4.51E-01
7.01E+00
1.93E+01
0.00E+00
2.98E-01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,506

165

4,952

-

7.43E+01

5.78E-01 3.47E+01 0.00E+00 1.01E+04 4.94E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.28E+03 3.94E+01 5.99E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

635

1.25E+03 1.24E+02 1.22E+03 1.29E+01 1.69E+05 1.06E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.05E+05 8.49E+03 2.11E+04 2.22E+02-

6.77E+02
2.37E+02
1.06E+02
1.35E+01
1.02E+01
3.66E+00
7.17E+01
1.59E+01
2.96E+01
9.37E+01
9.51E+01

3.02E+01
0.00E+00
1.25E+01
1.79E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.23E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.61E+00

1.90E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.90E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.18E+04
3.22E+04
1.44E+04
1.84E+03
1.38E+03
4.97E+02
9.74E+03
2.15E+03
4.02E+03
1.27E+04
1.29E+04

2.58E+03
0.00E+00
1.07E+03
1.53E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.06E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.09E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.72E+04
2.01E+04
8.97E+03
1.15E+03
8.62E+02
3.10E+02
6.07E+03
1.34E+03
2.50E+03
7.92E+03
8.04E+03

2.07E+03
0.00E+00
8.53E+02
1.22E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.43E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.47E+02

3.28E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.28E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.93E+01
3.14E+01
3.27E+00
1.84E+00
2.79E+00
0.00E+00

5.72E+00
5.72E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.35E+03
2.68E+03
2.80E+02
1.57E+02
2.38E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.68E+03
2.14E+03
2.24E+02
1.26E+02
1.90E+02
0.00E+00

9.88E+01
9.88E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

271

1,536

1,836

5.51E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.51E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.20E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.45E+02
1.17E+04

3.37E+03
1.05E+03
3.86E+01
5.99E+02
1.65E+03
0.00E+00
2.54E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.46E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.52E+02
7.31E+03

2.69E+03
8.42E+02
3.08E+01
4.78E+02
1.32E+03
0.00E+00
2.03E+01

9.52E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.52E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 514

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2008
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

73.70
0.01
0
0.0035
0.313
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2008
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.56E+07
6.33E+02
2.63E+05
1.67E+03
2.27E+05
1.42E+05

3.55E+06
4.79E+02
0.00E+00
1.68E+02
1.45E+04
1.14E+04

0.00E+00
3.07E+03
0.00E+00
1.34E+03
0.00E+00
2.32E+04

0.00E+00
3.29E+00
1.48E+02
4.11E+01
0.00E+00
7.11E+02

TOTAL
3.92E+07
4.18E+03
2.64E+05
3.23E+03
2.42E+05
1.77E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category
CARBONDIOXIDEMETHANENITROUSOXIDESULFUROXIDESNITROGENOXIDES

TOTAL

3.92E+07

2.68E+05

3.23E+03

2.42E+05

1.77E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

2.63E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.28E+05
0.00E+00
3.55E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.08E+07

4.63E+02

5.37E+02

6.67E+04

4.27E+04

8.55E+06
1.95E+06
0.00E+00
1.66E+05
9.78E+04
0.00E+00

2.63E+02
3.47E+01
1.48E+02
4.33E+00
1.34E+01
0.00E+00

4.04E+02
9.19E+01
2.88E+01
7.82E+00
4.68E+00
0.00E+00

5.28E+04
1.25E+04
0.00E+00
1.04E+03
4.00E+02
0.00E+00

3.34E+04
7.77E+03
4.97E+02
6.52E+02
3.20E+02
0.00E+00

ENERGY DEMAND

2.84E+07

3.87E+03

2.69E+03

1.75E+05

1.34E+05

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

1.53E+07
8.97E+05
7.24E+06
5.59E+05
1.05E+05
2.47E+06
1.62E+06
0.00E+00
1.88E+05

3.41E+02
1.36E+02
2.60E+03
4.17E+02
9.55E+00
2.48E+02
1.12E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.25E+02
4.89E+01
1.43E+03
2.00E+02
4.98E+00
1.69E+02
1.12E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.69E+04
3.67E+03
4.60E+04
3.41E+03
5.20E+02
1.42E+04
1.04E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.08E+04
3.04E+03
4.75E+04
5.19E+03
3.71E+02
1.02E+04
7.08E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLosses

A1- 515

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
156
Diesel381
Heavy Oil
334
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
71
LPG
58
Aviation Gasoline
11
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
167
394
321
74
65
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.157
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 516

0.313

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
378,844

PROD.
25,671

BIOMASS
205,752

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

426,842
18,55866,55629,658
3,987

199,729
6,024

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.28E+05
3.55E+04(107,170)

8,615

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(79,895)(20,433)(12,701)
22,812

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(5,873)(5,873)

1,762

9.72E+06 1.05E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.73E+02 1.42E+02 0.00E+00 1.48E+02

1,762

7.62E+06 9.36E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.36E+02 1.27E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.68E-10
3.64E-14
1.95E+06
3.47E+01
1.48E+02(1,615)(158)

1.54E+05 1.17E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.75E+00 1.58E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00(5,226)(1,338)0.00E+00 9.78E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.34E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

271,674

34,286

199,880

1,762* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 517NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

271,674

34,285

197,723

155,101
51,77630,144
2,872
2,095
753
16,177
4,108
6,465
20,453
20,257

7,349
3,168
498
3,099
584

260

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

843
843

-

12,274
10,384
604
414
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

74,302
61,212
13,090

2,100
1,916
184

153,322
34,093
119,228

1,762
1,089
673

7.08E+06 1.53E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.26E+02 2.10E+01 2.45E+03 3.29E+00
5.84E+06 1.40E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.04E+02 1.92E+01 5.45E+02 2.03E+00
1.25E+06 1.35E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.23E+01 1.84E+00 1.91E+03 1.26E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,094

24,864
24,864

-

5,094

1,008
517
491

4.86E+05 7.36E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.66E+00 1.01E+01 3.98E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.78E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.17E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.86E+05 3.59E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.66E+00 4.91E+00 3.98E+02 0.00E+00

419
419

884
724
160

-

-

3.99E+04 6.46E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.12E-01 8.84E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.29E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.24E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.99E+04 1.17E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.12E-01 1.60E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

9,830
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
82

1.76E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.82E+04
1.72E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,850

239

5,055

-

1.61E+06 1.75E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.86E+01 2.39E+00 8.09E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

600

2.59E+07 2.51E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.59E+02 3.37E+02 3.07E+03 3.29E+00-

1.48E+07
4.94E+06
2.87E+06
2.74E+05
2.00E+05
7.18E+04
1.54E+06
3.92E+05
6.16E+05
1.95E+06
1.93E+06

5.37E+05
0.00E+00
2.32E+05
3.64E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.26E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.27E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.64E+02
8.80E+01
5.12E+01
4.88E+00
3.56E+00
1.28E+00
2.75E+01
6.98E+00
1.10E+01
3.48E+01
3.44E+01

7.35E+01
0.00E+00
3.17E+01
4.98E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.10E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.84E+00

4.16E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.16E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.97E+05
7.59E+05
4.41E+04
3.02E+04
6.38E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.23E+02
1.04E+02
6.04E+00
4.14E+00
8.73E+00
0.00E+00

1.35E+01
1.35E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

260

1,493

1,762

7.18E+05
2.33E+05
7.38E+03
1.63E+05
3.09E+05
0.00E+00
5.99E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.13E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.81E-01
3.06E+01

9.83E+01
3.19E+01
1.01E+00
2.23E+01
4.23E+01
0.00E+00
8.20E-01

1.18E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.18E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

1.42E+05 4.55E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 518

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
378,844

PROD.
25,671

BIOMASS
205,752

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

426,842
18,55866,55629,658
3,987

199,7296,024(107,170)

8,615

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(79,895)(20,433)(12,701)
22,812

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(5,873)(5,873)(1,615)(158)(5,226)(1,338)271,674

34,286

1,762

4.59E+02 4.97E+01 0.00E+00 2.88E+01 6.23E+04 4.43E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.88E+04 3.39E+03 0.00E+00 4.97E+02

1,762

3.60E+02 4.45E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.88E+04 3.98E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.04E+04 3.04E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.27E-14
1.14E-12
8.69E-13
9.19E+01
1.25E+04
7.77E+03
2.88E+01
0.00E+00
4.97E+02
7.27E+00

5.53E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.87E+02 4.95E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.15E+02 3.78E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 4.68E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.00E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.20E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

199,880

1,762

A1- 519

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

271,674

34,285

197,723

155,101
51,77630,144
2,872
2,095
753
16,177
4,108
6,465
20,453
20,257

7,349
3,168
498
3,099
584

260

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

843
843

-

12,274
10,384
604
414
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

74,302
61,212
13,090

2,100
1,916
184

153,322
34,093
119,228

1,762
1,089
673

3.34E+02 7.35E+00 1.07E+03 1.23E+01 4.54E+04 6.28E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.83E+04 5.02E+02 1.86E+04 2.13E+02
2.75E+02 6.71E+00 2.39E+02 7.62E+00 3.74E+04 5.73E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.33E+04 4.58E+02 4.13E+03 1.32E+02
5.89E+01 6.44E-01 8.35E+02 4.71E+00 8.00E+03 5.50E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.98E+03 4.40E+01 1.44E+04 8.14E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,094

24,864
24,864

-

5,094

1,008
517
491

2.29E+01 3.53E+00 1.74E+02 0.00E+00 3.11E+03 3.01E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.94E+03 2.41E+02 3.01E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.81E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.55E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.29E+01 1.72E+00 1.74E+02 0.00E+00 3.11E+03 1.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.94E+03 1.17E+02 3.01E+03 0.00E+00

419
419

884
724
160

-

-

1.88E+00 3.09E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.56E+02 2.64E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.59E+02 2.11E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.53E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.17E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.73E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.88E+00 5.60E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.56E+02 4.79E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.59E+02 3.83E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

9,830
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
82

8.29E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.80E+00
8.11E+01

3.44E+01
1.12E+01
3.53E-01
7.82E+00
1.48E+01
0.00E+00
2.87E-01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,850

239

5,055

-

7.58E+01

8.37E-01 3.54E+01 0.00E+00 1.03E+04 7.16E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.41E+03 5.72E+01 6.12E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

600

1.22E+03 1.18E+02 1.34E+03 1.23E+01 1.65E+05 1.01E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.03E+05 8.05E+03 2.32E+04 2.13E+02-

6.98E+02
2.33E+02
1.36E+02
1.29E+01
9.43E+00
3.39E+00
7.28E+01
1.85E+01
2.91E+01
9.20E+01
9.12E+01

2.57E+01
0.00E+00
1.11E+01
1.74E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.08E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.04E+00

1.82E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.82E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.47E+04
3.16E+04
1.84E+04
1.75E+03
1.28E+03
4.60E+02
9.88E+03
2.51E+03
3.95E+03
1.25E+04
1.24E+04

2.20E+03
0.00E+00
9.47E+02
1.49E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.27E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.75E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.90E+04
1.97E+04
1.15E+04
1.09E+03
7.97E+02
2.86E+02
6.16E+03
1.56E+03
2.46E+03
7.78E+03
7.71E+03

1.76E+03
0.00E+00
7.57E+02
1.19E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.41E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.40E+02

3.15E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.15E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.30E+01
3.63E+01
2.11E+00
1.45E+00
3.06E+00
0.00E+00

5.90E+00
5.90E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.67E+03
3.11E+03
1.81E+02
1.24E+02
2.61E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.93E+03
2.48E+03
1.44E+02
9.88E+01
2.09E+02
0.00E+00

1.02E+02
1.02E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

260

1,493

1,762

5.17E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.17E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.12E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.45E+02
1.10E+04

2.94E+03
9.53E+02
3.02E+01
6.68E+02
1.26E+03
0.00E+00
2.45E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.01E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.52E+02
6.85E+03

2.35E+03
7.61E+02
2.41E+01
5.34E+02
1.01E+03
0.00E+00
1.96E+01

8.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.93E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 520

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2009
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/11/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

72.89
0.01
0
0.0035
0.265
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2009
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.73E+07
6.63E+02
3.09E+05
1.75E+03
2.38E+05
1.48E+05

2.59E+06
3.49E+02
0.00E+00
1.22E+02
1.02E+04
8.35E+03

0.00E+00
3.08E+03
0.00E+00
1.35E+03
0.00E+00
2.33E+04

0.00E+00
3.34E+00
1.50E+02
4.18E+01
0.00E+00
7.22E+02

TOTAL
3.98E+07
4.10E+03
3.09E+05
3.27E+03
2.48E+05
1.81E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
3.98E+07

METHANE
3.13E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.27E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.48E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
1.81E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

3.09E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.59E+05
0.00E+00
5.02E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.46E+06

3.90E+02

4.76E+02

5.90E+04

3.78E+04

6.98E+06
2.21E+06
0.00E+00
1.68E+05
9.60E+04
0.00E+00

1.84E+02
3.94E+01
1.50E+02
3.31E+00
1.31E+01
0.00E+00

3.30E+02
1.04E+02
2.92E+01
7.94E+00
4.60E+00
0.00E+00

4.34E+04
1.42E+04
0.00E+00
1.07E+03
3.93E+02
0.00E+00

2.75E+04
8.82E+03
5.05E+02
6.70E+02
3.14E+02
0.00E+00

3.04E+07

3.86E+03

2.79E+03

1.89E+05

1.43E+05

1.76E+07
6.92E+05
7.33E+06
5.31E+05
9.77E+04
2.40E+06
1.64E+06
0.00E+00
1.30E+05

3.57E+02
1.05E+02
2.64E+03
3.96E+02
8.88E+00
2.38E+02
1.13E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.31E+02
3.76E+01
1.45E+03
1.90E+02
4.65E+00
1.66E+02
1.13E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.12E+05
2.83E+03
4.67E+04
3.24E+03
4.87E+02
1.39E+04
1.04E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.99E+04
2.34E+03
4.82E+04
4.93E+03
3.47E+02
1.00E+04
7.14E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 521

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
192
Diesel
238
Heavy Oil
207
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
58
LPG
57
Aviation Gasoline
11
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
205
246
198
61
64
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.133
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 5220.265

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
396,765

PROD.
13,334BIOMASS206,783

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.09E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

484,287
6,543
94,065

13,506
172

202,014
4,769

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.59E+05
5.02E+04(98,867)

14,209

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(68,017)(23,183)(6,833)22,392

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(5,967)(5,967)(1,738)(36)(5,929)(1,314)

297,899

27,5431,790

8.86E+06 5.97E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.58E+02 8.18E+01 0.00E+00 1.50E+02

1,790

6.48E+06 4.98E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.16E+02 6.83E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.65E-10
3.64E-14
2.21E+06
3.94E+01
1.50E+02
1.66E+05 2.62E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.95E+00

3.59E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 9.60E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.31E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

200,816

1,790* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 523

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

297,901

27,542

198,686

180,677
69,936
43,952
1,903
1,848
664
15,916
4,816
5,495
20,453
15,693

4,653
1,585
330
2,114
625

202

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

641
641

-

9,463
7,871
448
351
793
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

75,642
62,34913,292

1,691
1,549
142

155,758
34,685
121,072

1,791
1,108
683

7.21E+06 1.24E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.29E+02 1.69E+01 2.49E+03 3.34E+00
5.94E+06 1.13E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.06E+02 1.55E+01 5.55E+02 2.07E+00
1.27E+06 1.04E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.26E+01 1.42E+00 1.94E+03 1.28E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,839

23,62323,623

-

4,839

950
518
432

4.61E+05 6.95E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.23E+00 9.50E+00 3.78E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.79E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.18E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.61E+05 3.16E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.23E+00 4.32E+00 3.78E+02 0.00E+00

396
396

820
670
150

-

-

3.78E+04 6.00E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.74E-01 8.20E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.90E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.70E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.78E+04 1.10E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.74E-01 1.50E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

8,856
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
78

1.76E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.82E+04
1.72E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,944

330

5,083

-

1.62E+06 2.41E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.88E+01 3.30E+00 8.13E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

779

2.84E+07 1.99E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.05E+02 2.68E+02 3.08E+03 3.34E+00-

1.72E+07
6.67E+06
4.19E+06
1.81E+05
1.76E+05
6.33E+04
1.52E+06
4.59E+05
5.24E+05
1.95E+06
1.50E+06

3.40E+05
0.00E+00
1.16E+05
2.41E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.54E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.57E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.07E+02
1.19E+02
7.47E+01
3.23E+00
3.14E+00
1.13E+00
2.71E+01
8.19E+00
9.34E+00
3.48E+01
2.67E+01

4.65E+01
0.00E+00
1.58E+01
3.30E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.11E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.25E+00

3.22E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.22E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.92E+05
5.75E+05
3.28E+04
2.56E+04
5.79E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.46E+01
7.87E+01
4.48E+00
3.51E+00
7.93E+00
0.00E+00

1.03E+01
1.03E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

202

989

1,791

6.47E+05
2.18E+05
7.38E+03
1.31E+05
2.85E+05
0.00E+00
5.70E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.13E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.81E-01
3.06E+01

8.86E+01
2.98E+01
1.01E+00
1.79E+01
3.90E+01
0.00E+00
7.80E-01

1.18E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.18E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.54E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 524

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
396,765

PROD.
13,334BIOMASS206,783

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

484,287
6,543
94,065

13,506
172

202,014
4,769(98,867)

14,209

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(68,017)(23,183)(6,833)22,392

FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(5,967)(5,967)(1,738)(36)(5,929)(1,314)

297,899

27,5431,790

4.18E+02 2.86E+01 0.00E+00 2.92E+01 5.68E+04 2.22E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.54E+04 1.96E+03 0.00E+00 5.05E+02

1,790

3.06E+02 2.39E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.15E+04 1.81E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.59E+04 1.63E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.27E-14
9.65E-13
8.69E-13
1.04E+02
1.42E+04
8.82E+03
2.92E+01
0.00E+00
5.05E+02
7.82E+00

1.26E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.06E+03 9.53E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.61E+02 8.58E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 4.60E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.93E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.14E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

200,816

1,790

A1- 525

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

297,901

27,542

198,686

180,677
69,936
43,952
1,903
1,848
664
15,916
4,816
5,495
20,453
15,693

4,653
1,585
330
2,114
625

202

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

641
641

-

9,463
7,871
448
351
793
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

75,642
62,34913,292

1,691
1,549
142

155,758
34,685
121,072

1,791
1,108
683

3.40E+02 5.92E+00 1.09E+03 1.25E+01 4.62E+04 5.06E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.88E+04 4.04E+02 1.88E+04 2.17E+02
2.81E+02 5.42E+00 2.43E+02 7.75E+00 3.81E+04 4.63E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.37E+04 3.70E+02 4.20E+03 1.34E+02
5.98E+01 4.96E-01 8.48E+02 4.78E+00 8.12E+03 4.24E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.06E+03 3.39E+01 1.46E+04 8.27E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,839

23,62323,623

-

4,839

950
518
432

2.18E+01 3.33E+00 1.65E+02 0.00E+00 2.96E+03 2.84E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.84E+03 2.27E+02 2.86E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.81E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.55E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.18E+01 1.51E+00 1.65E+02 0.00E+00 2.96E+03 1.29E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.84E+03 1.03E+02 2.86E+03 0.00E+00

396
396

820
670
150

-

-

1.78E+00 2.87E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.42E+02 2.45E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.51E+02 1.96E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.35E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.00E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.60E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.78E+00 5.26E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.42E+02 4.49E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.51E+02 3.59E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

8,856
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
78

8.29E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.80E+00
8.11E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

16,944

330

5,083

-

7.62E+01 1.16E+00 3.56E+01 0.00E+00 1.03E+04 9.88E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.45E+03 7.90E+01 6.15E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

779

1.34E+03 9.37E+01 1.35E+03 1.25E+01 1.81E+05 8.00E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.13E+05 6.40E+03 2.33E+04 2.17E+02-

8.13E+02
3.15E+02
1.98E+02
8.56E+00
8.32E+00
2.99E+00
7.16E+01
2.17E+01
2.47E+01
9.20E+01
7.06E+01

1.63E+01
0.00E+00
5.55E+00
1.15E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.40E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.19E+00

1.41E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.41E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.10E+05
4.27E+04
2.68E+04
1.16E+03
1.13E+03
4.06E+02
9.72E+03
2.94E+03
3.36E+03
1.25E+04
9.59E+03

1.39E+03
0.00E+00
4.74E+02
9.86E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.32E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.87E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.87E+04
2.66E+04
1.67E+04
7.24E+02
7.03E+02
2.53E+02
6.06E+03
1.83E+03
2.09E+03
7.78E+03
5.97E+03

1.11E+03
0.00E+00
3.79E+02
7.88E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.05E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.49E+02

2.44E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.44E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.31E+01
2.75E+01
1.57E+00
1.23E+00
2.78E+00
0.00E+00

4.49E+00
4.49E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.83E+03
2.35E+03
1.34E+02
1.05E+02
2.37E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.26E+03
1.88E+03
1.07E+02
8.39E+01
1.90E+02
0.00E+00

7.76E+01
7.76E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

202

989

1,791

3.10E+01
1.04E+01
3.53E-01
6.27E+00
1.37E+01
0.00E+00
2.73E-01

5.17E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.17E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.12E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.45E+02
1.10E+04

2.65E+03
8.92E+02
3.02E+01
5.36E+02
1.17E+03
0.00E+00
2.33E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.01E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.52E+02
6.85E+03

2.12E+03
7.13E+02
2.41E+01
4.28E+02
9.32E+02
0.00E+00
1.86E+01

8.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.93E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 526

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2010
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

3/13/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

72.77
0.01
0
0.0035
0.254
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2010
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.60E+07
6.40E+02
3.27E+05
1.69E+03
2.30E+05
1.43E+05

2.90E+06
3.92E+02
0.00E+00
1.37E+02
1.14E+04
9.38E+03

0.00E+00
3.13E+03
0.00E+00
1.37E+03
0.00E+00
2.37E+04

0.00E+00
3.40E+00
1.53E+02
4.25E+01
0.00E+00
7.34E+02

TOTAL
3.89E+07
4.17E+03
3.28E+05
3.24E+03
2.41E+05
1.77E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
3.89E+07

METHANE
3.32E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.243E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.41E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
1.77E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

3.27E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.62E+05
0.00E+00
6.50E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.55E+06

3.81E+02 4.339E+02

5.30E+04

3.42E+04

6.02E+06
2.24E+06
0.00E+00
1.84E+05
1.08E+05
0.00E+00

1.69E+02
4.00E+01
1.53E+02
3.58E+00
1.48E+01
0.00E+00

2.84E+02
1.06E+02
2.97E+01
8.67E+00
5.18E+00
0.00E+00

3.70E+04
1.44E+04
0.00E+00
1.17E+03
4.43E+02
0.00E+00

2.36E+04
8.96E+03
5.14E+02
7.31E+02
3.54E+02
0.00E+00

3.03E+07

3.94E+03 2.809E+03

1.88E+05

1.43E+05

1.71E+07
7.66E+05
7.49E+06
5.43E+05
1.06E+05
2.49E+06
1.65E+06
0.00E+00
1.30E+05

3.58E+02
1.16E+02
2.69E+03
4.02E+02
9.62E+00
2.50E+02
1.15E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.09E+05
3.14E+03
4.77E+04
3.31E+03
5.29E+02
1.42E+04
1.05E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.82E+04
2.59E+03
4.92E+04
5.01E+03
3.76E+02
1.03E+04
7.20E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 527

8.11E+02
4.17E+01
1.47E+03
1.93E+02
5.05E+00
1.70E+02
1.14E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
211
Diesel265
Heavy Oil
211
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
71
LPG
66
Aviation Gasoline
11
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

kTE
226
275
203
74
75
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.127
100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 528

0.254

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
383,464

PROD.
14,789BIOMASS
208,893

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.27E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

491,714
13,432
121,681

16,4591,670

204,624
4,268

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.62E+05
6.50E+04(89,126)

16,676

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(57,667)(23,539)(7,118)25,309FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,067)(6,067)(1,900)(35)(6,020)(1,480)294,338

31,465

1,820

7.92E+06 6.29E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.41E+02 8.63E+01 0.00E+00 1.53E+02

1,820

5.50E+06 5.18E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.80E+01 7.12E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-2.65E-10-3.64E-14
2.24E+06
4.00E+01
1.53E+02
1.81E+05 2.58E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.23E+00

3.55E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.08E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.48E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

202,825

1,820* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 529NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

294,337

31,465

201,600

175,522
69,19743,099
1,950
1,725
642
15,133
4,423
5,172
19,09015,090

5,688
2,278
338
2,381
691

194

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

712
712

-

10,485
8,720
526
376
863
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

77,012
63,513
13,499

2,071
1,894
177

158,248
35,291
122,957

1,821
1,127
694

7.34E+06 1.51E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.31E+02 2.07E+01 2.53E+03 3.40E+00
6.05E+06 1.38E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.08E+02 1.89E+01 5.65E+02 2.10E+00
1.29E+06 1.29E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.29E+01 1.77E+00 1.97E+03 1.30E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,907

23,95523,955

-

4,907

1,031
539
491

4.68E+05 7.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.34E+00 1.03E+01 3.83E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.94E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.39E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.68E+05 3.59E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.34E+00 4.91E+00 3.83E+02 0.00E+00

430
430

889
724
165

-

-

4.10E+04 6.49E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 8.89E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.29E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.24E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.10E+04 1.20E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 1.65E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

10,018
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
76

1.76E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.82E+04
1.72E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,037

417

5,111

-

1.62E+06 3.05E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.90E+01 4.17E+00 8.18E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

866

2.81E+07 2.27E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.99E+02 3.06E+02 3.13E+03 3.40E+00-

1.67E+07
6.60E+06
4.11E+06
1.86E+05
1.64E+05
6.12E+04
1.44E+06
4.22E+05
4.93E+05
1.82E+06
1.44E+06

4.16E+05
0.00E+00
1.66E+05
2.47E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.74E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.05E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.98E+02
1.18E+02
7.33E+01
3.32E+00
2.93E+00
1.09E+00
2.57E+01
7.52E+00
8.79E+00
3.25E+01
2.57E+01

5.69E+01
0.00E+00
2.28E+01
3.38E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.38E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.91E+00

3.10E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.10E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.66E+05
6.37E+05
3.84E+04
2.75E+04
6.31E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.05E+02
8.72E+01
5.26E+00
3.76E+00
8.63E+00
0.00E+00

1.14E+01
1.14E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

194

1,014

1,821

7.32E+05
2.33E+05
7.53E+03
1.53E+05
3.33E+05
0.00E+00
5.55E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.13E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.81E-01
3.06E+01

1.00E+02
3.19E+01
1.03E+00
2.10E+01
4.55E+01
0.00E+00
7.60E-01

1.18E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.18E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 530

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
383,464

PROD.
14,789BIOMASS
208,893

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

491,714
13,432
121,681

16,4591,670

204,624
4,268(89,126)

16,676

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(57,667)(23,539)(7,118)25,309FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,067)(6,067)(1,900)(35)(6,020)(1,480)294,338

31,465

1,820

3.74E+02 3.02E+01 0.00E+00 2.97E+01 5.08E+04 2.26E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.16E+04 2.06E+03 0.00E+00 5.14E+02

1,820

2.60E+02 2.49E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.52E+04 1.81E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.19E+04 1.70E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-1.27E-14-9.24E-13-8.69E-13
1.06E+02
1.44E+04
8.96E+03
2.97E+01
0.00E+00
5.14E+02
8.55E+00

1.24E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.16E+03 9.01E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.23E+02 8.48E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 5.18E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.43E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.54E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

202,825

1,820

A1- 531

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

294,337

31,465

201,600

175,522
69,19743,099
1,950
1,725
642
15,133
4,423
5,172
19,09015,090

5,688
2,278
338
2,381
691

194

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

712
712

-

10,485
8,720
526
376
863
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

77,012
63,513
13,499

2,071
1,894
177

158,248
35,291
122,957

1,821
1,127
694

3.47E+02 7.25E+00 1.11E+03 1.27E+01 4.70E+04 6.19E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.93E+04 4.95E+02 1.91E+04 2.20E+02
2.86E+02 6.63E+00 2.47E+02 7.89E+00 3.88E+04 5.67E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.42E+04 4.53E+02 4.27E+03 1.36E+02
6.07E+01 6.19E-01 8.61E+02 4.86E+00 8.25E+03 5.29E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.14E+03 4.23E+01 1.49E+04 8.40E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,907

23,95523,955

-

4,907

1,031
539
491

2.21E+01 3.61E+00 1.68E+02 0.00E+00 3.00E+03 3.08E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.87E+03 2.46E+02 2.90E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.89E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.61E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.29E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.21E+01 1.72E+00 1.68E+02 0.00E+00 3.00E+03 1.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.87E+03 1.17E+02 2.90E+03 0.00E+00

430
430

889
724
165

-

-

1.94E+00 3.11E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 2.66E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 2.12E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.53E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.17E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.73E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.94E+00 5.76E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 4.92E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 3.94E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

18,415

7,379
7,379

-

401
18,014

10,018
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
76

8.29E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.80E+00
8.11E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,037

417

5,111

-

7.67E+01 1.46E+00 3.58E+01 0.00E+00 1.04E+04 1.25E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.48E+03 9.98E+01 6.18E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

866

1.32E+03 1.07E+02 1.37E+03 1.27E+01 1.79E+05 9.15E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.12E+05 7.31E+03 2.37E+04 2.20E+02-

7.90E+02
3.11E+02
1.94E+02
8.78E+00
7.76E+00
2.89E+00
6.81E+01
1.99E+01
2.33E+01
8.59E+01
6.79E+01

1.99E+01
0.00E+00
7.97E+00
1.18E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.33E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.42E+00

1.36E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.36E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.07E+05
4.23E+04
2.63E+04
1.19E+03
1.05E+03
3.92E+02
9.24E+03
2.70E+03
3.16E+03
1.17E+04
9.22E+03

1.70E+03
0.00E+00
6.81E+02
1.01E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.12E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.07E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.68E+04
2.63E+04
1.64E+04
7.42E+02
6.56E+02
2.44E+02
5.76E+03
1.68E+03
1.97E+03
7.26E+03
5.74E+03

1.36E+03
0.00E+00
5.44E+02
8.07E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.69E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.65E+02

2.34E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.34E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.67E+01
3.05E+01
1.84E+00
1.32E+00
3.02E+00
0.00E+00

4.99E+00
4.99E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.14E+03
2.61E+03
1.57E+02
1.12E+02
2.58E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.51E+03
2.08E+03
1.26E+02
8.98E+01
2.06E+02
0.00E+00

8.62E+01
8.62E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

194

1,014

1,821

3.51E+01
1.12E+01
3.60E-01
7.35E+00
1.59E+01
0.00E+00
2.66E-01

5.17E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.17E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.12E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.45E+02
1.10E+04

3.00E+03
9.53E+02
3.08E+01
6.28E+02
1.36E+03
0.00E+00
2.27E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.01E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.52E+02
6.85E+03

2.39E+03
7.61E+02
2.46E+01
5.02E+02
1.09E+03
0.00E+00
1.82E+01

8.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.93E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 532

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2014
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

72.69
0.01
0
0.0035
0.261
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2014
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.24E+07
7.54E+02
6.69E+05
2.00E+03
2.71E+05
1.69E+05

3.28E+06
4.44E+02
0.00E+00
1.55E+02
1.28E+04
1.06E+04

0.00E+00
3.12E+03
0.00E+00
1.37E+03
0.00E+00
2.36E+04

0.00E+00
3.71E+00
1.67E+02
4.64E+01
0.00E+00
8.02E+02

TOTAL
4.57E+07
4.33E+03
6.69E+05
3.57E+03
2.84E+05
2.04E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.57E+07

METHANE
6.74E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.566E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.84E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.04E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

6.69E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.55E+05
0.00E+00
2.15E+05

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.46E+07

5.43E+02 7.220E+02

9.08E+04

5.81E+04

1.05E+07
3.89E+06
0.00E+00
1.72E+05
1.06E+05
0.00E+00

2.93E+02
6.93E+01
1.67E+02
3.36E+00
1.45E+01
0.00E+00

4.94E+02
1.83E+02
3.25E+01
8.12E+00
5.09E+00
0.00E+00

6.45E+04
2.49E+04
0.00E+00
1.10E+03
4.35E+02
0.00E+00

4.11E+04
1.55E+04
5.61E+02
6.85E+02
3.48E+02
0.00E+00

3.11E+07

3.95E+03 2.844E+03

1.93E+05

1.46E+05

1.63E+07
7.54E+05
8.80E+06
5.88E+05
1.30E+05
2.52E+06
1.88E+06
0.00E+00
1.30E+05

3.48E+02
1.16E+02
2.67E+03
4.42E+02
1.30E+01
2.42E+02
1.18E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.03E+05
3.09E+03
5.60E+04
3.60E+03
6.28E+02
1.45E+04
1.19E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.47E+04
2.56E+03
5.41E+04
5.49E+03
4.56E+02
1.04E+04
8.08E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 533

7.70E+02
4.17E+01
1.52E+03
2.13E+02
6.21E+00
1.69E+02
1.24E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
218
Diesel
254
Heavy Oil
228
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
62
LPG
78
Aviation Gasoline
12
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
233
262
219
65
88
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.000160.04
0.130

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 534

0.261

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
457,195

PROD.
20,582

BIOMASS209,966

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.69E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

851,489
7,823
402,116

21,7081,126

205,333
4,633

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

4.55E+05
2.15E+05(153,313)

11,128

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(100,347)(40,761)(12,254)
24,870FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,627)(6,627)(1,780)(33)(10,425)(1,455)

303,882

31,711

1,988

1.36E+07 9.68E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.43E+02 1.33E+02 0.00E+00 1.67E+02

1,988

9.57E+06 8.91E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.71E+02 1.23E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-3.19E+04-4.39E+00
3.89E+06
6.93E+01
1.67E+02
1.70E+05 2.42E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.03E+00

3.33E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.06E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.45E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

203,339

1,988* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 535NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

303,883

31,710201,308

165,869
66,00544,330
5,841
1,356
443
13,5684,484
3,879
14,99910,965

6,398
2,530
1,031
2,320
516

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

794
794

-

10,320
8,610
525
338
846
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

90,61573,032
17,583

2,186
2,004
183

155,810
34,289121,521

1,988
1,234
754

8.64E+06 1.60E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.54E+02 2.19E+01 2.49E+03 3.71E+00
6.96E+06 1.46E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+02 2.00E+01 5.49E+02 2.30E+00
1.68E+06 1.34E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.99E+01 1.83E+00 1.94E+03 1.41E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,410

26,41026,410

-

5,410

983
515
469

5.16E+05 7.19E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.20E+00 9.83E+00 4.23E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.76E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.15E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.16E+05 3.43E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.20E+00 4.69E+00 4.23E+02 0.00E+00

430
430

1,222
1,048
174

-

-

4.10E+04 8.93E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 1.22E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 7.66E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.05E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.10E+04 1.27E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 1.74E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,144

7,130
7,130

-

427
18,717

9,522
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
78

1.83E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.07E+04
1.78E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

19,322

491

5,024

-

1.84E+06 3.59E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.28E+01 4.91E+00 8.04E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

589

2.88E+07 2.31E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.11E+02 3.11E+02 3.12E+03 3.71E+00-

1.58E+07
6.29E+06
4.23E+06
5.57E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.29E+06
4.27E+05
3.70E+05
1.43E+06
1.05E+06

4.68E+05
0.00E+00
1.85E+05
7.53E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.70E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.77E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.82E+02
1.12E+02
7.54E+01
9.93E+00
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.31E+01
7.62E+00
6.59E+00
2.55E+01
1.86E+01

6.40E+01
0.00E+00
2.53E+01
1.03E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.32E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.16E+00

2.25E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.25E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.54E+05
6.29E+05
3.84E+04
2.47E+04
6.18E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.03E+02
8.61E+01
5.25E+00
3.38E+00
8.46E+00
0.00E+00

1.27E+01
1.27E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

3,092

1,988

6.96E+05
2.58E+05
6.98E+03
1.39E+05
2.87E+05
0.00E+00
5.70E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.25E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.26E-01
3.18E+01

9.52E+01
3.53E+01
9.56E-01
1.90E+01
3.92E+01
0.00E+00
7.80E-01

1.14E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.14E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 536

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
457,195

PROD.
20,582

BIOMASS209,966

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

851,489
7,823
402,116

21,7081,126

205,333
4,633(153,313)

11,128

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(100,347)(40,761)(12,254)
24,870FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,627)(6,627)(1,780)(33)(10,425)(1,455)

303,882

31,711

1,988

6.43E+02 4.66E+01 0.00E+00 3.25E+01 8.73E+04 3.52E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.44E+04 3.18E+03 0.00E+00 5.61E+02

1,988

4.52E+02 4.29E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.13E+04 3.19E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.82E+04 2.93E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00-1.54E+00-1.15E+02-1.05E+02
1.83E+02
2.49E+04
1.55E+04
3.25E+01
0.00E+00
5.61E+02
8.01E+00

1.16E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.09E+03 8.67E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.77E+02 7.95E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 5.09E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.35E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.48E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

203,339

1,988

A1- 537

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

303,883

31,710201,308

165,869
66,00544,330
5,841
1,356
443
13,5684,484
3,879
14,99910,965

6,398
2,530
1,031
2,320
516

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

794
794

-

10,320
8,610
525
338
846
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

90,61573,032
17,583

2,186
2,004
183

155,810
34,289121,521

1,988
1,234
754

4.08E+02 7.65E+00 1.09E+03 1.39E+01 5.53E+04 6.54E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.45E+04 5.23E+02 1.89E+04 2.41E+02
3.29E+02 7.01E+00 2.40E+02 8.64E+00 4.46E+04 5.99E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.78E+04 4.79E+02 4.15E+03 1.49E+02
7.91E+01 6.39E-01 8.51E+02 5.28E+00 1.07E+04 5.46E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.69E+03 4.37E+01 1.47E+04 9.13E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,410

26,41026,410

-

5,410

983
515
469

2.43E+01 3.44E+00 1.85E+02 0.00E+00 3.30E+03 2.94E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.06E+03 2.35E+02 3.20E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.80E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.54E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.23E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.43E+01 1.64E+00 1.85E+02 0.00E+00 3.30E+03 1.40E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.06E+03 1.12E+02 3.20E+03 0.00E+00

430
430

1,222
1,048
174

-

-

1.94E+00 4.28E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 3.66E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 2.92E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.67E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.13E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.50E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.94E+00 6.10E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 5.21E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 4.16E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,144

7,130
7,130

-

427
18,717

9,522
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
78

8.62E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.92E+00
8.42E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

19,322

491

5,024

-

8.69E+01 1.72E+00 3.52E+01 0.00E+00 1.18E+04 1.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.35E+03 1.17E+02 6.08E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

589

1.35E+03 1.09E+02 1.37E+03 1.39E+01 1.84E+05 9.31E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.14E+05 7.44E+03 2.36E+04 2.41E+02-

7.46E+02
2.97E+02
1.99E+02
2.63E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
6.11E+01
2.02E+01
1.75E+01
6.75E+01
4.93E+01

2.24E+01
0.00E+00
8.86E+00
3.61E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.12E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.81E+00

9.86E-01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.86E-01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.01E+05
4.03E+04
2.71E+04
3.57E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
8.29E+03
2.74E+03
2.37E+03
9.16E+03
6.70E+03

1.91E+03
0.00E+00
7.57E+02
3.08E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.94E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.54E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.31E+04
2.51E+04
1.69E+04
2.22E+03
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
5.16E+03
1.71E+03
1.48E+03
5.71E+03
4.17E+03

1.53E+03
0.00E+00
6.05E+02
2.46E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.55E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.23E+02

1.70E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.70E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.61E+01
3.01E+01
1.84E+00
1.18E+00
2.96E+00
0.00E+00

5.56E+00
5.56E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.09E+03
2.58E+03
1.57E+02
1.01E+02
2.53E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.47E+03
2.06E+03
1.26E+02
8.09E+01
2.02E+02
0.00E+00

9.61E+01
9.61E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

3,092

1,988

3.33E+01
1.23E+01
3.35E-01
6.65E+00
1.37E+01
0.00E+00
2.73E-01

4.99E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.99E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.17E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.61E+02
1.14E+04

2.85E+03
1.05E+03
2.86E+01
5.68E+02
1.17E+03
0.00E+00
2.33E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.28E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.63E+02
7.12E+03

2.28E+03
8.43E+02
2.28E+01
4.54E+02
9.38E+02
0.00E+00
1.86E+01

8.63E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.63E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 538

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2015
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

72.65
0.01
0
0.0035
0.263
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2015
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.29E+07
7.63E+02
7.83E+05
2.02E+03
2.74E+05
1.71E+05

4.03E+06
5.48E+02
0.00E+00
1.92E+02
1.57E+04
1.31E+04

0.00E+00
3.06E+03
0.00E+00
1.34E+03
0.00E+00
2.31E+04

0.00E+00
3.85E+00
1.73E+02
4.82E+01
0.00E+00
8.32E+02

TOTAL
4.69E+07
4.37E+03
7.83E+05
3.60E+03
2.90E+05
2.08E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.69E+07

METHANE
7.87E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.597E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.90E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.08E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

7.83E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.07E+05
0.00E+00
2.76E+05

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.56E+07

6.32E+02 7.707E+02

9.57E+04

6.17E+04

1.08E+07
4.34E+06
0.00E+00
1.76E+05
1.18E+05
0.00E+00

3.37E+02
7.73E+01
1.73E+02
3.45E+00
1.62E+01
0.00E+00

5.10E+02
2.05E+02
3.37E+01
8.30E+00
5.66E+00
0.00E+00

6.57E+04
2.78E+04
0.00E+00
1.12E+03
4.84E+02
0.00E+00

4.22E+04
1.73E+04
5.83E+02
7.00E+02
3.87E+02
0.00E+00

3.13E+07

3.91E+03 2.826E+03

1.94E+05

1.46E+05

1.55E+07
7.73E+05
9.60E+06
6.08E+05
9.46E+04
2.62E+06
1.99E+06
0.00E+00
1.30E+05

3.47E+02
1.19E+02
2.62E+03
4.56E+02
9.09E+00
2.45E+02
1.23E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.80E+04
3.16E+03
6.11E+04
3.72E+03
4.62E+02
1.51E+04
1.26E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.15E+04
2.63E+03
5.67E+04
5.67E+03
3.33E+02
1.07E+04
8.51E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 539

7.33E+02
4.27E+01
1.53E+03
2.19E+02
4.51E+00
1.72E+02
1.29E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
229
Diesel251
Heavy Oil
256
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
78
LPG
91
Aviation Gasoline
13
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
245
260
246
81
103
14

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.000160.04
0.132

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 540

0.263

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
463,146

PROD.
25,293

BIOMASS206,626

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.83E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

949,915
29,620516,389

25,482190

201,836
4,790

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

5.07E+05
2.76E+05(159,267)

9,407

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(100,347)(45,473)(16,673)
27,734FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,880)(6,880)(1,816)(36)(11,630)(1,618)303,879

34,6992,064

1.41E+07 1.51E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.51E+02 2.08E+02 0.00E+00 1.73E+02

2,064

9.57E+06 1.21E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.71E+02 1.67E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.76E+05
2.42E+01
4.34E+06
7.73E+01
1.73E+02
1.73E+05 2.61E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.09E+00

3.59E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.18E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.62E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

199,746

2,064* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 541NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

303,880

34,700

197,163

156,549
58,37743,254
5,430
1,356
443
13,5684,280
3,879
14,99910,965

7,812
3,761
958
2,524
568

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

812
812

-

10,573
8,755
535
351
932
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

98,61678,32820,289

2,753
2,528
224

151,122
32,981
118,141

2,063
1,282
782

9.40E+06 2.01E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.68E+02 2.75E+01 2.42E+03 3.85E+00
7.47E+06 1.85E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.33E+02 2.53E+01 5.28E+02 2.39E+00
1.93E+06 1.64E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.45E+01 2.24E+00 1.89E+03 1.46E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,581

27,24327,243

-

5,581

1,042
546
497

5.32E+05 7.62E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.49E+00 1.04E+01 4.36E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.99E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.46E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.32E+05 3.63E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.49E+00 4.97E+00 4.36E+02 0.00E+00

340
340

851
717
134

-

-

3.24E+04 6.22E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.77E-01 8.51E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.24E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.17E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.24E+04 9.81E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.77E-01 1.34E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,622

6,771
6,771

-

436
19,186

10,310
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
79

1.87E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.16E+04
1.83E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

20,297

710

5,074

-

1.94E+06 5.19E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.45E+01 7.10E+00 8.12E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

648

2.88E+07 2.52E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.12E+02 3.41E+02 3.06E+03 3.85E+00-

1.49E+07
5.57E+06
4.12E+06
5.18E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.29E+06
4.08E+05
3.70E+05
1.43E+06
1.05E+06

5.71E+05
0.00E+00
2.75E+05
7.00E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.84E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.15E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.66E+02
9.92E+01
7.35E+01
9.23E+00
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.31E+01
7.28E+00
6.59E+00
2.55E+01
1.86E+01

7.81E+01
0.00E+00
3.76E+01
9.58E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.52E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
5.68E+00

2.25E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.25E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.73E+05
6.40E+05
3.91E+04
2.56E+04
6.81E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.06E+02
8.76E+01
5.35E+00
3.51E+00
9.32E+00
0.00E+00

1.30E+01
1.30E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

2,874

2,063

7.53E+05
2.83E+05
7.46E+03
1.69E+05
2.88E+05
0.00E+00
5.77E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.34E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.42E-01
3.26E+01

1.03E+02
3.87E+01
1.02E+00
2.31E+01
3.94E+01
0.00E+00
7.90E-01

1.08E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.08E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 542Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
463,146

PROD.
25,293

BIOMASS206,626

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

949,915
29,620516,389

25,482190

201,836
4,790(159,267)

9,407

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(100,347)(45,473)(16,673)
27,734FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(6,880)(6,880)(1,816)(36)(11,630)(1,618)303,879

34,6992,064

6.64E+02 7.26E+01 0.00E+00 3.37E+01 9.02E+04 5.52E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.62E+04 4.96E+03 0.00E+00 5.83E+02

2,064

4.52E+02 5.84E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.13E+04 4.39E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.82E+04 3.99E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
8.48E+00
6.38E+02
5.79E+02
2.05E+02
2.78E+04
1.73E+04
3.37E+01
0.00E+00
5.83E+02
8.17E+00

1.26E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.11E+03 9.46E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.91E+02 8.59E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 5.66E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.84E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.87E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

199,746

2,064

A1- 543

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

303,880

34,700

197,163

156,549
58,37743,254
5,430
1,356
443
13,5684,280
3,879
14,99910,965

7,812
3,761
958
2,524
568

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

812
812

-

10,573
8,755
535
351
932
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

98,61678,32820,289

2,753
2,528
224

151,122
32,981
118,141

2,063
1,282
782

4.44E+02 9.63E+00 1.06E+03 1.44E+01 6.02E+04 8.23E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.75E+04 6.58E+02 1.83E+04 2.50E+02
3.52E+02 8.85E+00 2.31E+02 8.97E+00 4.78E+04 7.56E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.98E+04 6.04E+02 3.99E+03 1.55E+02
9.13E+01 7.86E-01 8.27E+02 5.47E+00 1.24E+04 6.71E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.72E+03 5.37E+01 1.43E+04 9.46E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,581

27,24327,243

-

5,581

1,042
546
497

2.51E+01 3.65E+00 1.91E+02 0.00E+00 3.41E+03 3.12E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.12E+03 2.49E+02 3.30E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.91E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.63E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.30E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.51E+01 1.74E+00 1.91E+02 0.00E+00 3.41E+03 1.49E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.12E+03 1.19E+02 3.30E+03 0.00E+00

340
340

851
717
134

-

-

1.53E+00 2.98E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.07E+02 2.55E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.29E+02 2.04E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.51E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.15E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.71E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.53E+00 4.70E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.07E+02 4.02E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.29E+02 3.21E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

19,622

6,771
6,771

-

436
19,186

10,310
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
79

8.83E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.96E+00
8.63E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

20,297

710

5,074

-

9.13E+01 2.49E+00 3.55E+01 0.00E+00 1.24E+04 2.12E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.72E+03 1.70E+02 6.14E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

648

1.35E+03 1.19E+02 1.34E+03 1.44E+01 1.84E+05 1.02E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.15E+05 8.14E+03 2.31E+04 2.50E+02-

7.04E+02
2.63E+02
1.95E+02
2.44E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
6.11E+01
1.93E+01
1.75E+01
6.75E+01
4.93E+01

2.73E+01
0.00E+00
1.32E+01
3.35E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.83E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.99E+00

9.86E-01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.86E-01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.56E+04
3.57E+04
2.64E+04
3.32E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
8.29E+03
2.61E+03
2.37E+03
9.16E+03
6.70E+03

2.34E+03
0.00E+00
1.12E+03
2.87E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.55E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.70E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.96E+04
2.22E+04
1.65E+04
2.07E+03
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
5.16E+03
1.63E+03
1.48E+03
5.71E+03
4.17E+03

1.87E+03
0.00E+00
8.99E+02
2.29E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.03E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.36E+02

1.70E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.70E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.70E+01
3.06E+01
1.87E+00
1.23E+00
3.26E+00
0.00E+00

5.68E+00
5.68E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.16E+03
2.62E+03
1.60E+02
1.05E+02
2.79E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.53E+03
2.09E+03
1.28E+02
8.39E+01
2.23E+02
0.00E+00

9.82E+01
9.82E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

2,874

2,063

3.61E+01
1.36E+01
3.57E-01
8.09E+00
1.38E+01
0.00E+00
2.77E-01

4.74E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.74E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.20E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.66E+02
1.17E+04

3.08E+03
1.16E+03
3.05E+01
6.91E+02
1.18E+03
0.00E+00
2.36E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.47E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.66E+02
7.30E+03

2.46E+03
9.26E+02
2.44E+01
5.52E+02
9.43E+02
0.00E+00
1.89E+01

8.19E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.19E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 544

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2016
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

72.68
0.01
0
0.0035
0.262
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2016
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.41E+07
7.84E+02
8.56E+05
2.08E+03
2.82E+05
1.75E+05

4.52E+06
6.14E+02
0.00E+00
2.15E+02
1.75E+04
1.47E+04

0.00E+00
2.93E+03
0.00E+00
1.28E+03
0.00E+00
2.22E+04

0.00E+00
4.00E+00
1.80E+02
5.00E+01
0.00E+00
8.64E+02

TOTAL
4.86E+07
4.34E+03
8.56E+05
3.62E+03
2.99E+05
2.13E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.86E+07

METHANE
8.61E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.624E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.99E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.13E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

8.56E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.44E+05
0.00E+00
3.12E+05

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.53E+07

6.70E+02 7.611E+02

9.33E+04

6.06E+04

1.01E+07
4.65E+06
0.00E+00
1.76E+05
1.23E+05
0.00E+00

3.52E+02
8.30E+01
1.80E+02
3.44E+00
1.68E+01
0.00E+00

4.80E+02
2.20E+02
3.50E+01
8.30E+00
5.88E+00
0.00E+00

6.10E+04
2.98E+04
0.00E+00
1.12E+03
5.03E+02
0.00E+00

3.95E+04
1.86E+04
6.05E+02
7.00E+02
4.02E+02
0.00E+00

3.32E+07

3.85E+03 2.863E+03

2.06E+05

1.53E+05

1.64E+07
8.05E+05
1.04E+07
5.58E+05
1.48E+05
2.71E+06
2.09E+06
0.00E+00
1.30E+05

3.68E+02
1.24E+02
2.56E+03
4.10E+02
1.54E+01
2.45E+02
1.26E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.03E+05
3.30E+03
6.63E+04
3.39E+03
7.00E+02
1.55E+04
1.32E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.49E+04
2.74E+03
5.94E+04
5.12E+03
5.13E+02
1.10E+04
8.91E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 545

7.74E+02
4.47E+01
1.53E+03
1.97E+02
7.06E+00
1.73E+02
1.34E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
234
Diesel
278
Heavy Oil
268
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
87
LPG
96
Aviation Gasoline
13
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
250
288
257
91
108
14

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.131

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 546

0.262

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
476,927

PROD.
29,614BIOMASS198,667

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.56E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

1,019,644
41,430584,146

29,63420

194,495
4,172

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

5.44E+05
3.12E+05(154,503)

7,510Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(91,391)(48,811)(19,615)
28,840FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,137)(7,137)(1,817)(35)(12,484)(1,681)

322,425

37,1242,141

1.35E+07 1.81E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.41E+02 2.49E+02 0.00E+00 1.80E+02

2,141

8.71E+06 1.43E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.55E+02 1.96E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.57E+05
3.53E+01
4.65E+06
8.30E+01
1.80E+02
1.73E+05 2.58E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.09E+00

3.55E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.23E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.68E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

191,530

2,141* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 547NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

322,424

37,123

189,388

165,190
65,23844,481
6,156
1,356
443
13,444
4,230
3,879
14,99910,965

8,454
4,228
1,096
2,511
619

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

881
881

-

11,020
9,115
554
363
988
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

107,093
83,88023,213

2,993
2,728
266

146,422
31,668
114,754

2,141
1,331
810

1.02E+07 2.19E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.82E+02 2.99E+01 2.34E+03 4.00E+00
8.00E+06 1.99E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.43E+02 2.73E+01 5.07E+02 2.48E+00
2.21E+06 1.94E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.95E+01 2.66E+00 1.84E+03 1.51E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,004

24,42824,428

-

5,004

1,106
579
527

4.77E+05 8.08E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.51E+00 1.11E+01 3.91E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.23E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.79E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.77E+05 3.85E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.51E+00 5.27E+00 3.91E+02 0.00E+00

430
430

1,463
1,282
181

-

-

4.10E+04 1.07E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 1.46E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 9.37E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.28E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.10E+04 1.32E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.31E-01 1.81E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,106

6,401
6,401

-

445
19,66010,805
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
80

1.92E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.24E+04
1.87E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

21,312

746

5,115

-

2.03E+06 5.45E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.62E+01 7.46E+00 8.18E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

537

3.05E+07 2.71E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.43E+02 3.66E+02 2.93E+03 4.00E+00-

1.57E+07
6.22E+06
4.24E+06
5.87E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.28E+06
4.03E+05
3.70E+05
1.43E+06
1.05E+06

6.18E+05
0.00E+00
3.09E+05
8.01E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.84E+05
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.52E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.81E+02
1.11E+02
7.56E+01
1.05E+01
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.29E+01
7.19E+00
6.59E+00
2.55E+01
1.86E+01

8.45E+01
0.00E+00
4.23E+01
1.10E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.51E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.19E+00

2.25E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.25E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

8.05E+05
6.66E+05
4.05E+04
2.66E+04
7.22E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.10E+02
9.11E+01
5.54E+00
3.63E+00
9.88E+00
0.00E+00

1.41E+01
1.41E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

3,289

2,141

7.90E+05
2.92E+05
8.09E+03
1.88E+05
2.96E+05
0.00E+00
5.85E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.42E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.57E-01
3.34E+01

1.08E+02
4.00E+01
1.11E+00
2.57E+01
4.05E+01
0.00E+00
8.00E-01

1.02E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.02E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 548

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
476,927

PROD.
29,614BIOMASS198,667

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

1,019,644
41,430584,146

29,63420

194,495
4,172(154,503)

7,510Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(91,391)(48,811)(19,615)
28,840FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,137)(7,137)(1,817)(35)(12,484)(1,681)

322,425

37,1242,141

6.39E+02 8.70E+01 0.00E+00 3.50E+01 8.67E+04 6.57E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.40E+04 5.94E+03 0.00E+00 6.05E+02

2,141

4.11E+02 6.87E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.58E+04 5.14E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.48E+04 4.69E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.24E+01
9.25E+02
8.44E+02
2.20E+02
2.98E+04
1.86E+04
3.50E+01
0.00E+00
6.05E+02
8.18E+00

1.24E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.11E+03 9.29E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.91E+02 8.48E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 5.88E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.03E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.02E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

191,530

2,141

A1- 549

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

322,424

37,123

189,388

165,190
65,23844,481
6,156
1,356
443
13,444
4,230
3,879
14,99910,965

8,454
4,228
1,096
2,511
619

141

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

881
881

-

11,020
9,115
554
363
988
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

107,093
83,88023,213

2,993
2,728
266

146,422
31,668
114,754

2,141
1,331
810

4.82E+02 1.05E+01 1.02E+03 1.50E+01 6.54E+04 8.95E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.07E+04 7.15E+02 1.77E+04 2.59E+02
3.77E+02 9.55E+00 2.22E+02 9.31E+00 5.12E+04 8.16E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.19E+04 6.52E+02 3.83E+03 1.61E+02
1.04E+02 9.30E-01 8.03E+02 5.67E+00 1.42E+04 7.95E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.83E+03 6.35E+01 1.39E+04 9.80E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

5,004

24,42824,428

-

5,004

1,106
579
527

2.25E+01 3.87E+00 1.71E+02 0.00E+00 3.06E+03 3.31E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.90E+03 2.64E+02 2.96E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.03E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.73E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.38E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.25E+01 1.84E+00 1.71E+02 0.00E+00 3.06E+03 1.58E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.90E+03 1.26E+02 2.96E+03 0.00E+00

430
430

1,463
1,282
181

-

-

1.94E+00 5.12E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 4.38E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 3.50E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.49E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.83E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.06E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.94E+00 6.34E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.63E+02 5.41E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.64E+02 4.33E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,106

6,401
6,401

-

445
19,66010,805
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
80

9.05E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.00E+00
8.85E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

21,312

746

5,115

-

9.59E+01 2.61E+00 3.58E+01 0.00E+00 1.30E+04 2.23E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.11E+03 1.78E+02 6.19E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

537

1.44E+03 1.28E+02 1.28E+03 1.50E+01 1.95E+05 1.09E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.21E+05 8.74E+03 2.22E+04 2.59E+02-

7.43E+02
2.94E+02
2.00E+02
2.77E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
6.05E+01
1.90E+01
1.75E+01
6.75E+01
4.93E+01

2.96E+01
0.00E+00
1.48E+01
3.84E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.79E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.17E+00

9.86E-01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.86E-01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.01E+05
3.98E+04
2.72E+04
3.76E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
8.21E+03
2.58E+03
2.37E+03
9.16E+03
6.70E+03

2.53E+03
0.00E+00
1.26E+03
3.28E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.51E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.85E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.29E+04
2.48E+04
1.69E+04
2.34E+03
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
5.12E+03
1.61E+03
1.48E+03
5.71E+03
4.17E+03

2.02E+03
0.00E+00
1.01E+03
2.62E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.00E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.48E+02

1.70E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.70E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.86E+01
3.19E+01
1.94E+00
1.27E+00
3.46E+00
0.00E+00

6.16E+00
6.16E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.30E+03
2.73E+03
1.66E+02
1.09E+02
2.95E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.63E+03
2.18E+03
1.32E+02
8.69E+01
2.36E+02
0.00E+00

1.07E+02
1.07E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

141

3,289

2,141

3.78E+01
1.40E+01
3.87E-01
8.98E+00
1.42E+01
0.00E+00
2.80E-01

4.48E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.48E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.23E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.72E+02
1.20E+04

3.23E+03
1.20E+03
3.31E+01
7.68E+02
1.21E+03
0.00E+00
2.39E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.65E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.69E+02
7.48E+03

2.58E+03
9.56E+02
2.65E+01
6.13E+02
9.68E+02
0.00E+00
1.91E+01

7.75E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.75E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 550

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2017
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

4/20/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

71.56
0.01
0
0.0035
0.192
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2017
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.30E+07
7.66E+02
3.76E+05
2.03E+03
2.75E+05
1.71E+05

3.33E+06
4.54E+02
0.00E+00
1.59E+02
1.21E+04
1.09E+04

0.00E+00
2.53E+03
0.00E+00
1.11E+03
0.00E+00
1.91E+04

0.00E+00
3.98E+00
1.79E+02
4.97E+01
0.00E+00
8.59E+02

TOTAL
4.64E+07
3.75E+03
3.76E+05
3.34E+03
2.87E+05
2.02E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.64E+07

METHANE
3.79E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.342E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.87E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.02E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

3.76E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.03E+05
0.00E+00
7.30E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.24E+07

5.36E+02 6.233E+02

7.56E+04

4.95E+04

9.36E+06
2.59E+06
0.00E+00
1.87E+05
1.18E+05
0.00E+00

2.67E+02
4.61E+01
1.79E+02
3.55E+00
1.62E+01
0.00E+00

4.43E+02
1.22E+02
3.48E+01
8.84E+00
5.66E+00
0.00E+00

5.69E+04
1.66E+04
0.00E+00
1.19E+03
4.84E+02
0.00E+00

3.68E+04
1.03E+04
6.02E+02
7.46E+02
3.87E+02
0.00E+00

3.39E+07

3.40E+03 2.719E+03

2.12E+05

1.53E+05

1.54E+07
7.34E+05
1.22E+07
5.01E+05
1.41E+05
2.63E+06
2.24E+06
0.00E+00
1.29E+05

3.13E+02
1.14E+02
2.22E+03
3.74E+02
1.47E+01
2.32E+02
1.32E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.76E+04
3.00E+03
7.77E+04
3.06E+03
6.69E+02
1.52E+04
1.42E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.11E+04
2.50E+03
6.37E+04
4.65E+03
4.91E+02
1.08E+04
9.53E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 551

7.26E+02
4.10E+01
1.45E+03
1.80E+02
6.75E+00
1.70E+02
1.43E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
232
Diesel
226
Heavy Oil
131
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
64
LPG
120
Aviation Gasoline
12
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
248
234
126
66
136
13

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.096

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 552

0.192

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
459,521

PROD.
16,543

BIOMASS
172,691

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.76E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

566,806
29,480136,765

16,5430

168,898
3,794

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

3.03E+05
7.30E+04(125,611)

14,597

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(89,592)(27,133)(11,499)
27,738FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,103)(7,103)(1,946)(24)(6,939)(1,618)333,910

31,1402,1311.13E+07 1.12E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.02E+02 1.56E+02 0.00E+00 1.79E+02

2,131

8.54E+06 8.23E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.52E+02 1.15E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.74E+05
2.43E+01
2.59E+06
4.61E+01
1.79E+02
1.86E+05 1.74E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.31E+00

2.44E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.18E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.62E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

165,589

2,131* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 553

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

333,910

31,140164,155

157,796
58,97245,605
4,215
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
14,317
11,650

4,229
1,930
744
1,225
331

150

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

836
836

-

10,044
8,317
516
338
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

125,722
95,43330,289

3,023
2,748
275

123,108
25,401
97,706

2,130
1,325
805

1.20E+07 2.21E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.14E+02 3.02E+01 1.97E+03 3.98E+00
9.10E+06 2.01E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.62E+02 2.75E+01 4.06E+02 2.47E+00
2.89E+06 2.01E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.15E+01 2.75E+00 1.56E+03 1.50E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,574

22,33022,330

-

4,574

887
464
423

4.36E+05 6.49E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.78E+00 8.87E+00 3.57E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.39E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.64E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.36E+05 3.09E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.78E+00 4.23E+00 3.57E+02 0.00E+00

408
408

1,404
1,232
172

-

-

3.89E+04 1.03E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.93E-01 1.40E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 9.00E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.23E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.89E+04 1.26E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.93E-01 1.72E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,355

6,482
6,482

-

445
19,909

9,391
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
80

1.94E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.24E+04
1.90E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

22,825

872

5,250

-

2.18E+06 6.37E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.88E+01 8.72E+00 8.40E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,290

3.17E+07 2.22E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.64E+02 2.99E+02 2.53E+03 3.98E+00-

1.50E+07
5.62E+06
4.35E+06
4.02E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.22E+06
4.67E+05
3.39E+05
1.36E+06
1.11E+06

3.09E+05
0.00E+00
1.41E+05
5.43E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.95E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.42E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.68E+02
1.00E+02
7.75E+01
7.16E+00
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.17E+01
8.33E+00
6.04E+00
2.43E+01
1.98E+01

4.23E+01
0.00E+00
1.93E+01
7.44E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.22E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.31E+00

2.39E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.39E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.34E+05
6.08E+05
3.77E+04
2.47E+04
6.38E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.00E+02
8.32E+01
5.16E+00
3.38E+00
8.73E+00
0.00E+00

1.34E+01
1.34E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

150

2,231

2,130

6.86E+05
2.95E+05
6.25E+03
1.55E+05
2.25E+05
0.00E+00
5.85E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.46E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.57E-01
3.38E+01

9.39E+01
4.03E+01
8.55E-01
2.12E+01
3.07E+01
0.00E+00
8.00E-01

1.04E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.04E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.47E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 554

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
459,521

PROD.
16,543

BIOMASS
172,691

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

566,806
29,480136,765

16,5430

168,898
3,794(125,611)

14,597

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(89,592)(27,133)(11,499)
27,738FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,103)(7,103)(1,946)(24)(6,939)(1,618)333,910

31,1402,131

5.34E+02 5.45E+01 0.00E+00 3.48E+01 7.25E+04 3.16E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.52E+04 3.72E+03 0.00E+00 6.02E+02

2,131

4.03E+02 4.02E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.47E+04 2.21E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.41E+04 2.75E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
8.50E+00
4.66E+02
5.80E+02
1.22E+02
1.66E+04
1.03E+04
3.48E+01
0.00E+00
6.02E+02
8.76E+00

8.53E-02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.19E+03 4.68E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.41E+02 5.83E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 5.66E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.84E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.87E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

165,589

2,131

A1- 555

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

333,910

31,140164,155

157,796
58,97245,605
4,215
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
14,317
11,650

4,229
1,930
744
1,225
331

150

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

836
836

-

10,044
8,317
516
338
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

125,722
95,43330,289

3,023
2,748
275

123,108
25,401
97,706

2,130
1,325
805

5.66E+02 1.06E+01 8.62E+02 1.49E+01 7.68E+04 9.04E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.78E+04 7.23E+02 1.49E+04 2.58E+02
4.29E+02 9.62E+00 1.78E+02 9.27E+00 5.83E+04 8.22E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.63E+04 6.57E+02 3.07E+03 1.60E+02
1.36E+02 9.64E-01 6.84E+02 5.64E+00 1.85E+04 8.24E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.15E+04 6.58E+01 1.18E+04 9.74E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,574

22,33022,330

-

4,574

887
464
423

2.06E+01 3.11E+00 1.56E+02 0.00E+00 2.79E+03 2.65E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+03 2.12E+02 2.70E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.63E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.39E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.11E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.06E+01 1.48E+00 1.56E+02 0.00E+00 2.79E+03 1.27E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+03 1.01E+02 2.70E+03 0.00E+00

408
408

1,404
1,232
172

-

-

1.83E+00 4.91E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.49E+02 4.20E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.55E+02 3.36E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 4.31E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.69E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.94E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.83E+00 6.02E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.49E+02 5.15E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.55E+02 4.11E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,355

6,482
6,482

-

445
19,909

9,391
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
80

9.16E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.00E+00
8.96E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

22,825

872

5,250

-

1.03E+02 3.05E+00 3.67E+01 0.00E+00 1.39E+04 2.61E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.68E+03 2.08E+02 6.35E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,290

1.49E+03 1.04E+02 1.11E+03 1.49E+01 2.03E+05 8.93E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.26E+05 7.13E+03 1.91E+04 2.58E+02-

7.10E+02
2.65E+02
2.05E+02
1.90E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
5.75E+01
2.20E+01
1.60E+01
6.44E+01
5.24E+01

1.48E+01
0.00E+00
6.75E+00
2.60E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.29E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.16E+00

1.05E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.05E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.64E+04
3.60E+04
2.79E+04
2.57E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
7.81E+03
2.99E+03
2.17E+03
8.74E+03
7.12E+03

1.26E+03
0.00E+00
5.77E+02
2.22E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.66E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.89E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.00E+04
2.24E+04
1.74E+04
1.60E+03
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
4.86E+03
1.86E+03
1.35E+03
5.45E+03
4.43E+03

1.01E+03
0.00E+00
4.61E+02
1.78E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.91E+01

1.81E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.81E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.52E+01
2.91E+01
1.80E+00
1.18E+00
3.06E+00
0.00E+00

5.85E+00
5.85E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.00E+03
2.49E+03
1.54E+02
1.01E+02
2.61E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.40E+03
1.99E+03
1.23E+02
8.09E+01
2.09E+02
0.00E+00

1.01E+02
1.01E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

150

2,231

2,130

3.29E+01
1.41E+01
2.99E-01
7.42E+00
1.08E+01
0.00E+00
2.80E-01

4.54E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.54E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.24E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.72E+02
1.22E+04

2.81E+03
1.21E+03
2.56E+01
6.34E+02
9.19E+02
0.00E+00
2.39E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.74E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.69E+02
7.58E+03

2.24E+03
9.64E+02
2.04E+01
5.06E+02
7.34E+02
0.00E+00
1.91E+01

7.84E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.84E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 556

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2018
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

6/26/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

71.53
0.01
0
0.0035
0.200
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2018
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.22E+07
7.51E+02
3.27E+05
1.99E+03
2.70E+05
1.68E+05

3.52E+06
4.80E+02
0.00E+00
1.68E+02
1.27E+04
1.15E+04

0.00E+00
2.43E+03
0.00E+00
1.06E+03
0.00E+00
1.83E+04

0.00E+00
4.04E+00
1.82E+02
5.05E+01
0.00E+00
8.73E+02

TOTAL
4.57E+07
3.66E+03
3.27E+05
3.27E+03
2.82E+05
1.99E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.57E+07

METHANE
3.31E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.267E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.82E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
1.99E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

3.27E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.83E+05
0.00E+00
4.38E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.09E+07

5.42E+02 5.535E+02

6.53E+04

4.33E+04

7.80E+06
2.42E+06
0.00E+00
1.87E+05
1.31E+05
0.00E+00

2.42E+02
4.32E+01
1.82E+02
3.66E+00
1.79E+01
0.00E+00

3.70E+02
1.14E+02
3.53E+01
8.83E+00
6.25E+00
0.00E+00

4.69E+04
1.55E+04
0.00E+00
1.19E+03
5.34E+02
0.00E+00

3.06E+04
9.67E+03
6.11E+02
7.45E+02
4.27E+02
0.00E+00

3.48E+07

3.30E+03 2.714E+03

2.17E+05

1.55E+05

1.51E+07
7.07E+05
1.33E+07
4.72E+05
1.03E+05
2.65E+06
2.37E+06
0.00E+00
1.29E+05

3.08E+02
1.09E+02
2.15E+03
3.56E+02
1.08E+01
2.33E+02
1.36E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.58E+04
2.89E+03
8.46E+04
2.90E+03
4.83E+02
1.55E+04
1.50E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.99E+04
2.41E+03
6.73E+04
4.42E+03
3.55E+02
1.09E+04
1.01E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 557

7.13E+02
3.94E+01
1.46E+03
1.72E+02
4.90E+00
1.72E+02
1.49E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
226
Diesel
207
Heavy Oil
141
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
53
LPG
128
Aviation Gasoline
12
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
241
215
135
56
145
12

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.000160.04
0.100

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 558

0.200

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
449,406

PROD.
13,020BIOMASS
165,467

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.27E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

531,112301
82,006

13,027
7

161,383
4,085

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.83E+05
4.38E+04(106,873)

17,092

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(73,012)(25,425)(11,790)
30,705FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,212)(7,212)(1,934)(37)(6,502)(1,786)

342,534

30,112

2,164

9.57E+06 1.36E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.71E+02 1.90E+02 0.00E+00 1.82E+02

2,164

6.96E+06 8.43E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+02 1.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.86E+05
5.40E+01
2.42E+06
4.32E+01
1.82E+02
1.84E+05 2.64E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.29E+00

3.68E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.31E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.79E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

158,255

2,164* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 559

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

342,534

30,112

157,599

154,873
55,184
42,164
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

4,161
2,186
416
1,225
333

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

792
792

-

9,668
7,984
491
320
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

136,783
103,341
33,442

3,371
3,060
311

117,314
23,242
94,072

2,163
1,346
817

1.30E+07 2.46E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.33E+02 3.37E+01 1.88E+03 4.04E+00
9.85E+06 2.24E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.76E+02 3.06E+01 3.72E+02 2.51E+00
3.19E+06 2.27E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.69E+01 3.11E+00 1.51E+03 1.52E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,370

21,331
21,331

-

4,370

757
396
361

4.17E+05 5.53E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.43E+00 7.57E+00 3.41E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.90E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.96E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.17E+05 2.64E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.43E+00 3.61E+00 3.41E+02 0.00E+00

285
285

1,032
910
122

-

-

2.72E+04 7.54E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.85E-01 1.03E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 6.65E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.10E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.72E+04 8.90E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.85E-01 1.22E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852

6,644
6,644

-

445
20,407

9,078
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
76

1.99E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.24E+04
1.95E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,122

965

5,307

-

2.30E+06 7.05E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.10E+01 9.65E+00 8.49E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,080

3.26E+07 2.16E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.80E+02 2.90E+02 2.43E+03 4.04E+00-

1.48E+07
5.26E+06
4.02E+06
2.25E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.22E+06
4.67E+05
3.39E+05
1.49E+06
1.57E+06

3.04E+05
0.00E+00
1.60E+05
3.04E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.95E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.44E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.63E+02
9.38E+01
7.17E+01
4.01E+00
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.17E+01
8.33E+00
6.04E+00
2.67E+01
2.80E+01

4.16E+01
0.00E+00
2.19E+01
4.16E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.22E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.33E+00

3.38E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.38E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.07E+05
5.84E+05
3.59E+04
2.34E+04
6.38E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.67E+01
7.98E+01
4.91E+00
3.20E+00
8.73E+00
0.00E+00

1.27E+01
1.27E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

1,248

2,163

6.63E+05
2.95E+05
6.25E+03
1.47E+05
2.10E+05
0.00E+00
5.55E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.54E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.57E-01
3.47E+01

9.08E+01
4.03E+01
8.55E-01
2.01E+01
2.87E+01
0.00E+00
7.60E-01

1.06E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.06E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.47E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 560

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
449,406

PROD.
13,020BIOMASS
165,467

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

531,112301
82,006

13,027
7

161,383
4,085(106,873)

17,092

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(73,012)(25,425)(11,790)
30,705FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,212)(7,212)(1,934)(37)(6,502)(1,786)

342,534

30,112

2,164

4.52E+02 6.65E+01 0.00E+00 3.53E+01 6.13E+04 3.97E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.82E+04 4.54E+03 0.00E+00 6.11E+02

2,164

3.29E+02 4.13E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.46E+04 2.35E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.78E+04 2.82E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.89E+01
1.08E+03
1.29E+03
1.14E+02
1.55E+04
9.67E+03
3.53E+01
0.00E+00
6.11E+02
8.70E+00

1.29E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.18E+03 7.36E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.36E+02 8.81E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 6.25E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.34E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.27E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

158,255

2,164

A1- 561Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

342,534

30,112

157,599

154,873
55,184
42,164
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

4,161
2,186
416
1,225
333

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

792
792

-

9,668
7,984
491
320
873
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

136,783
103,341
33,442

3,371
3,060
311

117,314
23,242
94,072

2,163
1,346
817

6.16E+02 1.18E+01 8.21E+02 1.51E+01 8.35E+04 1.01E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.20E+04 8.06E+02 1.42E+04 2.62E+02
4.65E+02 1.07E+01 1.63E+02 9.42E+00 6.31E+04 9.15E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.93E+04 7.31E+02 2.81E+03 1.63E+02
1.50E+02 1.09E+00 6.59E+02 5.72E+00 2.04E+04 9.30E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.27E+04 7.43E+01 1.14E+04 9.88E+01

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

4,370

21,331
21,331

-

4,370

757
396
361

1.97E+01 2.65E+00 1.49E+02 0.00E+00 2.67E+03 2.26E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.66E+03 1.81E+02 2.58E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.39E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.47E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.97E+01 1.26E+00 1.49E+02 0.00E+00 2.67E+03 1.08E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.66E+03 8.62E+01 2.58E+03 0.00E+00

285
285

1,032
910
122

-

-

1.28E+00 3.61E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+02 3.09E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.09E+02 2.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.19E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.72E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.28E+00 4.26E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+02 3.64E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.09E+02 2.91E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852

6,644
6,644

-

445
20,407

9,078
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
76

9.38E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.00E+00
9.18E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,122

965

5,307

-

1.09E+02 3.38E+00 3.71E+01 0.00E+00 1.47E+04 2.89E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.18E+03 2.31E+02 6.42E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,080

1.54E+03 1.02E+02 1.06E+03 1.51E+01 2.08E+05 8.68E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.30E+05 6.94E+03 1.83E+04 2.62E+02-

6.97E+02
2.48E+02
1.90E+02
1.06E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
5.75E+01
2.20E+01
1.60E+01
7.06E+01
7.40E+01

1.46E+01
0.00E+00
7.65E+00
1.46E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.29E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.17E+00

1.48E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.48E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.46E+04
3.37E+04
2.58E+04
1.44E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
7.81E+03
2.99E+03
2.17E+03
9.58E+03
1.00E+04

1.24E+03
0.00E+00
6.54E+02
1.24E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.66E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.97E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.89E+04
2.10E+04
1.60E+04
8.97E+02
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
4.86E+03
1.86E+03
1.35E+03
5.97E+03
6.26E+03

9.94E+02
0.00E+00
5.23E+02
9.95E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.97E+01

2.56E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.56E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.38E+01
2.79E+01
1.72E+00
1.12E+00
3.06E+00
0.00E+00

5.55E+00
5.55E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.89E+03
2.39E+03
1.47E+02
9.56E+01
2.61E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.31E+03
1.91E+03
1.17E+02
7.64E+01
2.09E+02
0.00E+00

9.59E+01
9.59E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

1,248

2,163

3.18E+01
1.41E+01
2.99E-01
7.05E+00
1.00E+01
0.00E+00
2.66E-01

4.65E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.65E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.27E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.72E+02
1.25E+04

2.72E+03
1.21E+03
2.56E+01
6.03E+02
8.58E+02
0.00E+00
2.27E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.93E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.69E+02
7.76E+03

2.17E+03
9.64E+02
2.04E+01
4.82E+02
6.85E+02
0.00E+00
1.82E+01

8.04E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.04E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 562

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2019
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

7/2/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

71.56
0.01
0
0.0035
0.196
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2018
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

4.28E+07
7.62E+02
4.17E+05
2.02E+03
2.74E+05
1.70E+05

3.59E+06
4.91E+02
0.00E+00
1.72E+02
1.28E+04
1.17E+04

0.00E+00
2.41E+03
0.00E+00
1.06E+03
0.00E+00
1.82E+04

0.00E+00
4.10E+00
1.84E+02
5.12E+01
0.00E+00
8.86E+02

TOTAL
4.64E+07
3.67E+03
4.17E+05
3.29E+03
2.86E+05
2.01E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
4.64E+07

METHANE
4.21E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
3.294E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.86E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
2.01E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

4.17E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.30E+05
0.00E+00
8.68E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.14E+07

5.62E+02 5.763E+02

6.80E+04

4.52E+04

7.87E+06
2.83E+06
0.00E+00
1.87E+05
1.31E+05
0.00E+00

2.51E+02
5.04E+01
1.84E+02
3.65E+00
1.79E+01
0.00E+00

3.73E+02
1.33E+02
3.59E+01
8.83E+00
6.25E+00
0.00E+00

4.71E+04
1.81E+04
0.00E+00
1.19E+03
5.34E+02
0.00E+00

3.08E+04
1.13E+04
6.20E+02
7.45E+02
4.27E+02
0.00E+00

3.50E+07

3.29E+03 2.718E+03

2.18E+05

1.56E+05

1.51E+07
7.06E+05
1.35E+07
4.20E+05
1.03E+05
2.67E+06
2.41E+06
0.00E+00
1.29E+05

3.08E+02
1.09E+02
2.18E+03
3.13E+02
1.08E+01
2.34E+02
1.38E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.58E+04
2.89E+03
8.59E+04
2.56E+03
4.83E+02
1.55E+04
1.53E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.00E+04
2.40E+03
6.84E+04
3.89E+03
3.55E+02
1.10E+04
1.02E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 563

7.13E+02
3.93E+01
1.49E+03
1.51E+02
4.90E+00
1.73E+02
1.52E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
221
Diesel
213
Heavy Oil
134
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
55
LPG
128
Aviation Gasoline
12
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
236
220
129
58
145
13

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.098

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 564

0.196

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
456,851

PROD.
14,048BIOMASS
164,524

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.17E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

619,098
301
162,548

14,12779

160,907
3,616

REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

3.30E+05
8.68E+04(112,177)

16,178

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(73,027)(29,637)(12,705)
30,705FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,321)(7,321)(1,934)(36)(7,580)(1,786)344,674

30,2262,196

9.97E+06 1.43E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.78E+02 1.99E+02 0.00E+00 1.84E+02

2,196

6.96E+06 9.09E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.24E+02 1.27E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.86E+05
5.40E+01
2.83E+06
5.04E+01
1.84E+02
1.84E+05 2.61E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.29E+00

3.65E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.31E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.79E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

157,203

2,196* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 565

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

344,674

30,226

156,760

154,886
55,18442,177
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

4,147
2,173
416
1,225
333

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

785
785

-

9,662
7,988
496
320
858
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

139,060
105,137
33,924

3,300
2,998
301

119,048
23,621
95,427

2,196
1,368
828

1.33E+07 2.41E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.36E+02 3.30E+01 1.90E+03 4.10E+00
1.00E+07 2.19E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.79E+02 3.00E+01 3.78E+02 2.55E+00
3.23E+06 2.20E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.77E+01 3.01E+00 1.53E+03 1.55E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,826

18,67818,678

-

3,826

749
396
353

3.65E+05 5.47E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.50E+00 7.49E+00 2.99E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.90E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.96E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.65E+05 2.58E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.50E+00 3.53E+00 2.99E+02 0.00E+00

285
285

1,032
910
122

-

-

2.72E+04 7.54E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.85E-01 1.03E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 6.65E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.10E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.72E+04 8.90E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.85E-01 1.22E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852

6,644
6,644

-

445
20,407

9,272
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
76

1.99E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.24E+04
1.95E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,515

981

5,393

-

2.34E+06 7.17E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.17E+01 9.81E+00 8.63E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,083

3.28E+07 2.16E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.84E+02 2.91E+02 2.41E+03 4.10E+00-

1.48E+07
5.26E+06
4.02E+06
2.25E+05
1.29E+05
4.22E+04
1.22E+06
4.67E+05
3.39E+05
1.49E+06
1.57E+06

3.03E+05
0.00E+00
1.59E+05
3.04E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.95E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.44E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.63E+02
9.38E+01
7.17E+01
4.01E+00
2.30E+00
7.53E-01
2.17E+01
8.33E+00
6.04E+00
2.67E+01
2.80E+01

4.15E+01
0.00E+00
2.17E+01
4.16E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.22E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.33E+00

3.38E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.38E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.06E+05
5.84E+05
3.63E+04
2.34E+04
6.27E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.66E+01
7.99E+01
4.96E+00
3.20E+00
8.58E+00
0.00E+00

1.26E+01
1.26E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

1,248

2,196

6.78E+05
2.95E+05
6.25E+03
1.61E+05
2.10E+05
0.00E+00
5.55E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.54E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.57E-01
3.47E+01

9.27E+01
4.03E+01
8.55E-01
2.21E+01
2.87E+01
0.00E+00
7.60E-01

1.06E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.06E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.47E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 566

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
456,851

PROD.
14,048BIOMASS
164,524

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

619,098
301
162,548

14,12779

160,907
3,616(112,177)

16,178

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(73,027)(29,637)(12,705)
30,705FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,321)(7,321)(1,934)(36)(7,580)(1,786)344,674

30,2262,196

4.71E+02 6.97E+01 0.00E+00 3.59E+01 6.39E+04 4.08E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.98E+04 4.76E+03 0.00E+00 6.20E+02

2,196

3.29E+02 4.45E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.46E+04 2.48E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.78E+04 3.04E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.89E+01
1.06E+03
1.29E+03
1.33E+02
1.81E+04
1.13E+04
3.59E+01
0.00E+00
6.20E+02
8.70E+00

1.28E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.18E+03 7.13E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.36E+02 8.71E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 6.25E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.34E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.27E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

157,203

2,196

A1- 567

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

344,674

30,226

156,760

154,886
55,18442,177
2,359
1,356
443
12,785
4,899
3,556
15,681
16,447

4,147
2,173
416
1,225
333

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

785
785

-

9,662
7,988
496
320
858
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

139,060
105,137
33,924

3,300
2,998
301

119,048
23,621
95,427

2,196
1,368
828

6.26E+02 1.15E+01 8.33E+02 1.54E+01 8.49E+04 9.87E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.29E+04 7.89E+02 1.44E+04 2.66E+02
4.73E+02 1.05E+01 1.65E+02 9.58E+00 6.42E+04 8.97E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.00E+04 7.17E+02 2.86E+03 1.66E+02
1.53E+02 1.05E+00 6.68E+02 5.80E+00 2.07E+04 9.02E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.29E+04 7.20E+01 1.15E+04 1.00E+02

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,826

18,67818,678

-

3,826

749
396
353

1.72E+01 2.62E+00 1.31E+02 0.00E+00 2.34E+03 2.24E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.46E+03 1.79E+02 2.26E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.39E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.47E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.72E+01 1.23E+00 1.31E+02 0.00E+00 2.34E+03 1.05E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.46E+03 8.43E+01 2.26E+03 0.00E+00

285
285

1,032
910
122

-

-

1.28E+00 3.61E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+02 3.09E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.09E+02 2.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.19E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.72E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.28E+00 4.26E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.74E+02 3.64E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.09E+02 2.91E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

20,852

6,644
6,644

-

445
20,407

9,272
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
76

9.38E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.00E+00
9.18E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

24,515

981

5,393

-

1.10E+02 3.43E+00 3.78E+01 0.00E+00 1.50E+04 2.93E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.33E+03 2.34E+02 6.53E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

1,083

1.55E+03 1.02E+02 1.06E+03 1.54E+01 2.10E+05 8.72E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.31E+05 6.97E+03 1.82E+04 2.66E+02-

6.97E+02
2.48E+02
1.90E+02
1.06E+01
6.10E+00
1.99E+00
5.75E+01
2.20E+01
1.60E+01
7.06E+01
7.40E+01

1.45E+01
0.00E+00
7.61E+00
1.46E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.29E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.17E+00

1.48E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.48E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

9.46E+04
3.37E+04
2.58E+04
1.44E+03
8.28E+02
2.71E+02
7.81E+03
2.99E+03
2.17E+03
9.58E+03
1.00E+04

1.24E+03
0.00E+00
6.50E+02
1.24E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.66E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.97E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.89E+04
2.10E+04
1.60E+04
8.97E+02
5.16E+02
1.69E+02
4.86E+03
1.86E+03
1.35E+03
5.97E+03
6.26E+03

9.91E+02
0.00E+00
5.19E+02
9.95E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.93E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.97E+01

2.56E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.56E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

3.38E+01
2.80E+01
1.74E+00
1.12E+00
3.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.50E+00
5.50E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.89E+03
2.39E+03
1.48E+02
9.56E+01
2.57E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.31E+03
1.91E+03
1.19E+02
7.64E+01
2.05E+02
0.00E+00

9.50E+01
9.50E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

1,248

2,196

3.25E+01
1.41E+01
2.99E-01
7.73E+00
1.00E+01
0.00E+00
2.66E-01

4.65E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.65E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.27E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.72E+02
1.25E+04

2.77E+03
1.21E+03
2.56E+01
6.61E+02
8.58E+02
0.00E+00
2.27E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.93E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.69E+02
7.76E+03

2.22E+03
9.64E+02
2.04E+01
5.28E+02
6.85E+02
0.00E+00
1.82E+01

8.04E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.04E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 568

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATEESTIMATED GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEAR 2020
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

7/2/2020

EMISSION FACTORS: kg/GJ fuel combustion/production
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

95.3
0.00170.534
0.0045
0.611
0.38

71.75
0.01
0
0.0035
0.226
0.24

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

000.016 0.0018667
0
0.084
0.007
0.007
0
0
0.121
0.121

Notes
1,4,7
1,2
1,3
1,2
4,5
1,2,6

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Fuel2018
GHG/POLLUTANTCarbon Dioxide from Combustion
Methane from Combustion
Methane from Production
Nitrous Oxide from Combustion
Sulfur Oxides from Combustion
Nitrogen Oxides from Combustion

COAL &COKE

REFINED
PROD.

WOOD/
BIOMASSCHARCOAL

3.56E+07
6.33E+02
2.90E+05
1.68E+03
2.27E+05
1.42E+05

3.29E+06
4.48E+02
0.00E+00
1.57E+02
1.20E+04
1.07E+04

0.00E+00
2.40E+03
0.00E+00
1.05E+03
0.00E+00
1.81E+04

0.00E+00
4.16E+00
1.87E+02
5.20E+01
0.00E+00
9.00E+02

TOTAL
3.89E+07
3.48E+03
2.90E+05
2.93E+03
2.39E+05
1.71E+05

SUMMARY EMISSIONS RESULTS: Tonnes of Emissions by Balance Category

TOTAL

CARBONDIOXIDE
3.89E+07

METHANE
2.93E+05

NITROUS
OXIDE
2.934E+03

SULFUROXIDES
2.39E+05

NITROGENOXIDES
1.71E+05

ENERGY SUPPLY

0.00E+00

2.90E+05

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.46E+05
0.00E+00
4.38E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.93E+06

5.17E+02 4.130E+02

4.59E+04

3.12E+04

5.01E+06
2.10E+06
0.00E+00
1.87E+05
1.37E+05
0.00E+00

2.01E+02
3.75E+01
1.87E+02
3.81E+00
1.87E+01
0.00E+00

2.38E+02
9.92E+01
3.64E+01
8.81E+00
6.55E+00
0.00E+00

2.91E+04
1.35E+04
0.00E+00
1.18E+03
5.60E+02
0.00E+00

1.94E+04
8.39E+03
6.30E+02
7.42E+02
4.47E+02
0.00E+00

3.09E+07

3.15E+03 2.521E+03

1.94E+05

1.40E+05

1.23E+07
5.29E+05
1.37E+07
4.00E+05
9.24E+04
2.07E+06
1.74E+06
0.00E+00
1.29E+05

2.61E+02
8.16E+01
2.21E+03
2.97E+02
9.73E+00
1.93E+02
9.94E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.78E+04
2.16E+03
8.74E+04
2.44E+03
4.35E+02
1.23E+04
1.10E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.87E+04
1.80E+03
6.95E+04
3.70E+03
3.20E+02
8.76E+03
7.37E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production

Own UseLossesENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

A1- 569

5.81E+02
2.94E+01
1.51E+03
1.43E+02
4.41E+00
1.44E+02
1.09E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes/Sources:
1 Carbon dioxide emission factors for coal and refined products, and all wood and charcoal factors
From Greenhouse Gas Inventory Work book : IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Volume 2 . IPCC/OCED Joint Programme, published by UNEP/WMO. "Final Draft" Version
2 Most non-CO 2 emission factors derived from a variety of sources used by the authors in earlier work .
3 Production of methane from coal mining assumes a mid range estimate (from source 1) for production
and post-mining emissions of 14 cubic meters methane per tonne of coal.
4 SOx, CO2 emission factors for wood/biomass and charcoal considered to be zero on the assumption thatbiomass fuels are used sustainably in the DPRK and have negligible sulfur contents.
5 SOx emission factor for petroleum products estimated as shown below. SOx emission factor for coal
combustion assumes that lignite coal is 0.5% sulfur, anthracite is 0.75% sulfur by weight. Analyses ofcoal from the Anju field (lignite) show sulfur contents ranging from 0.2 to 1.2 %S (Document in authors' files[HA1-VO1]). All of the sulfur in both oil-based and coal fuels is assumed to be emitted as SOx.
Sulfur contents for petroleum products are generally tak en from Kato, et al (1991) Analysis of the Structureof Energy Consumption and the Dynamics of Emissions of Atmospheric Species Related to the Global
Environmental Change (COx, NOx, and CO2) in Asia . NISTEP Report No. 21, page 37.
6 NOx emission factors for coal are derived from Kato et al, 1991 (reference as in 5, p. 39) assuming NOx
factors of 7.5 k g/te for anthracite, 6.38 k g/te for brown coal. These are listed as factors for industry, andare assumed to be representative. NOx factors for coal-fired utility boilers are shown in the source
document as somewhat higher than these figures, and factors for residential coal consumption are lower.
NOx emission factors for petroleum products were assumed to be 10 k g/te. NOx emission factors varyconsiderably by fuel type and usage (NOx from transport fuels is an order of magnitude higher thanfrom residential fuels, for example); the figure used here is a central estimate of factors listed in
Kato et al, 1991, page 41.
7 Use of coal and oil for fertilizer production, accounted for in the energy balances under "non-energy" products,
emit CO 2 to the atmosphere either during fertilizer production or (in the case of Urea), shortly after application.
As a consequence, CO 2 from non-energy consumption of fuels for fertilizer use is accoiunted for by using
the coal and petroleum emission factors above. See, for example,
A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fertiliser Production , Sam Wood and Annette Cowie,
Research and Development Division, State Forests of New South Wales, Cooperative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, dated June 2004, and available as
http://www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/GHG_Emission_Fertilizer%20Production_July2004.pdf.
Other non-energy uses of oil were assumed to be mainly lubricants, with a carbon content
that is20% oxidized to CO 2 . This is not quite accurate, assome non-energy uses or oil are for asphalt, and those uses emit relatively little CO 2 directly, but
produce NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) that oxidize to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
We thus use the 20% factor, from "Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use", of 2006 IPCC
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Volume 3, Industrial Processes andProduct Use , available as
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_5_Ch5_Non_Energy_Products.pdf.
It is recognized that there will lik ely be some non-CO 2 emissions related to the use of non-energy products,
perhaps especially sulfur oxide emissions from coal use in fertilizer production, but providing an estimate ofthose emissions depends on k nowledge of how the sulfur component of coal is managed in coal-based
fertilizer production--for example, is it captured for use in products such as sulfuric acid, or emitted?--thatis currently unavailable to us, so these non-CO 2 emissions are set at zero for now.

ESTIMATE OF SOx EMISSION FACTOR FOR REFINED PRODUCTS
ProductkTOE
Gasoline
160
Diesel
151
Heavy Oil
144
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
37
LPG
117
Aviation Gasoline
9
Weighted Average: Sulfur content in kg/GJ

TE/TOE
1.07
1.035
0.96
1.045
1.13
1.07

kTE
171
156
139
39
132
9

%S
0.12
0.4
1.5
0.032
0.00016
0.04
0.113

Fraction of Sulfur emitted as SO x

100%

Mass ratio of SOx (as SO2) to S

2

Weighted Average SOx emission factor: kg/GJ

A1- 570

0.226

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
378,623

PROD.
6,629

BIOMASS
163,652

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.90E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

460,509120
82,006

6,629-

151,597
12,055REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

2.46E+05
4.38E+04(72,547)

17,511

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(42,949)(22,045)(12,758)
32,196FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,435)(7,435)(1,915)(55)(5,638)(1,871)

306,076

24,1412,231

6.38E+06 1.55E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.14E+02 2.16E+02 0.00E+00 1.87E+02

2,231

4.09E+06 9.15E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.30E+01 1.28E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.94E+05
6.89E+01
2.10E+06
3.75E+01
1.87E+02
1.83E+05 3.96E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.26E+00

5.52E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 1.37E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.87E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

156,217

2,231* Emissions from domestic production and production for export are counted in supply emissions total, since those emissions occur in the DPRK. Emissions associated with imports are not counted here.

A1- 571

NITROUSUNITSNautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)METHANE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROUS OXIDE EMIS
UNITS: TONNES (TCOAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

306,075

24,141

155,863

125,183
47,06932,188
1,179
986
354
9,654
3,810
2,586
10,90816,447

4,498
2,986
208
953
351

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

582
582

-

7,233
6,111
374
200
547
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

141,394
106,977
34,417

3,437
3,127
310

120,823
24,00996,814

2,231
1,390
840

1.35E+07 2.51E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.40E+02 3.44E+01 1.93E+03 4.16E+00
1.02E+07 2.29E+05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.82E+02 3.13E+01 3.84E+02 2.60E+00
3.28E+06 2.27E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.85E+01 3.10E+00 1.55E+03 1.57E+00

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,629

17,713
17,713

-

3,629

741
396
344

3.46E+05 5.41E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.17E+00 7.41E+00 2.83E+02 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.90E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.96E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
3.46E+05 2.52E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.17E+00 3.44E+00 2.83E+02 0.00E+00

257
257

929
819
110

-

-

2.45E+04 6.79E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.36E-01 9.29E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 5.99E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.19E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.45E+04 8.01E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.36E-01 1.10E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

17,308

6,644
6,644

-

223
17,085

5,731
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
65

1.65E+06
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.12E+04
1.63E+06

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,682

707

3,890

-

1.69E+06 5.17E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.01E+01 7.07E+00 6.22E+01 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

866

2.92E+07 1.74E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.19E+02 2.33E+02 2.40E+03 4.16E+00-

1.19E+07
4.49E+06
3.07E+06
1.12E+05
9.40E+04
3.38E+04
9.20E+05
3.63E+05
2.47E+05
1.04E+06
1.57E+06

3.29E+05
0.00E+00
2.18E+05
1.52E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
6.96E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.57E+04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.13E+02
8.00E+01
5.47E+01
2.00E+00
1.68E+00
6.02E-01
1.64E+01
6.48E+00
4.40E+00
1.85E+01
2.80E+01

4.50E+01
0.00E+00
2.99E+01
2.08E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.53E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.51E+00

3.38E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.38E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

5.29E+05
4.47E+05
2.74E+04
1.47E+04
4.00E+04
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.23E+01
6.11E+01
3.74E+00
2.00E+00
5.47E+00
0.00E+00

9.31E+00
9.31E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

624

2,231

4.19E+05
1.76E+05
3.47E+03
1.21E+05
1.14E+05
0.00E+00
4.78E+03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.94E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.78E-01
2.90E+01

5.73E+01
2.41E+01
4.75E-01
1.65E+01
1.56E+01
0.00E+00
6.54E-01

1.06E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.06E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

9.43E+04 3.48E+04 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 572

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)
BALANCE CATEGORY
ENERGY SUPPLY*
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Inputs to International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONNITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &

COKE
378,623

PROD.
6,629

BIOMASS
163,652

COAL
-

COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
COKE
PROD.
BIOMASS
COAL
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

460,509120
82,006

6,629-

151,597
12,055(72,547)

17,511

Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Production/Preparation
Charcoal Production
Coke Production
District Heat Production
Other Transformation
Own UseLosses(42,949)(22,045)(12,758)
32,196FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION(7,435)(7,435)(1,915)(55)(5,638)(1,871)

306,076

24,1412,231

3.01E+02 7.55E+01 0.00E+00 3.64E+01 4.09E+04 5.02E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.55E+04 5.16E+03 0.00E+00 6.30E+02

2,231

1.93E+02 4.47E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.62E+04 2.89E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.63E+04 3.05E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.41E+01
1.56E+03
1.65E+03
9.92E+01
1.35E+04
8.39E+03
3.64E+01
0.00E+00
6.30E+02
8.62E+00

1.93E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.17E+03 1.25E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 7.29E+02 1.32E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

0.00E+00 6.55E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.60E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.47E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

156,2172,231

A1- 573

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
EMISSIONS CALCULATIONSFUELS PRODUCTION/USE
UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ)NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONSUNITS: TONNES (TE)COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

COAL &REFINED

WOOD/

CHAR-

BALANCE CATEGORY

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASS

COAL

COKE

PROD.

BIOMASSCOAL

ENERGY DEMAND

306,075

24,141

155,863

125,183
47,06932,188
1,179
986
354
9,654
3,810
2,586
10,90816,447

4,498
2,986
208
953
351

211

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Road
Rail
Water
Air
Non-Specified

-

582
582

-

7,233
6,111
374
200
547
-

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban
Rural

141,394
106,977
34,417

3,437
3,127
310

120,823
24,00996,814

2,231
1,390
840

6.36E+02 1.20E+01 8.46E+02 1.56E+01 8.64E+04 1.03E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 5.38E+04 8.21E+02 1.46E+04 2.70E+02
4.81E+02 1.09E+01 1.68E+02 9.73E+00 6.53E+04 9.35E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 4.07E+04 7.47E+02 2.91E+03 1.68E+02
1.55E+02 1.08E+00 6.78E+02 5.88E+00 2.10E+04 9.27E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.31E+04 7.41E+01 1.17E+04 1.02E+02

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Field Operations
Processing/Other

3,629

17,713
17,713

-

3,629

741
396
344

1.63E+01 2.59E+00 1.24E+02 0.00E+00 2.22E+03 2.21E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.38E+03 1.77E+02 2.14E+03 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.39E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.18E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.47E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.63E+01 1.21E+00 1.24E+02 0.00E+00 2.22E+03 1.03E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.38E+03 8.23E+01 2.14E+03 0.00E+00

257
257

929
819
110

-

-

1.16E+00 3.25E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.57E+02 2.78E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.77E+01 2.22E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 2.87E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 2.45E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.96E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.16E+00 3.84E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.57E+02 3.28E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.77E+01 2.62E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

MILITARY SECTOR
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

17,308

6,644
6,644

-

223
17,085

5,731
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
65

7.79E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.00E+00
7.69E+01

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS

17,682

707

3,890

-

7.96E+01 2.48E+00 2.72E+01 0.00E+00 1.08E+04 2.12E+02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 6.73E+03 1.69E+02 4.71E+02 0.00E+00

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Iron and Steel
CementFertilizers
Other Chemicals
Pulp and Paper
Other Metals
Other Minerals
TextilesBuilding Materials
Non-specified Industry

FISHERIES SECTOR
Large Ships
Processing/Other

NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORSNON-ENERGY USE

866

1.37E+03 8.15E+01 1.05E+03 1.56E+01 1.87E+05 6.96E+03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.16E+05 5.56E+03 1.81E+04 2.70E+02-

5.63E+02
2.12E+02
1.45E+02
5.31E+00
4.44E+00
1.59E+00
4.34E+01
1.71E+01
1.16E+01
4.91E+01
7.40E+01

1.57E+01
0.00E+00
1.05E+01
7.28E-01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.33E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.23E+00

1.48E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.48E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

7.65E+04
2.87E+04
1.97E+04
7.20E+02
6.02E+02
2.16E+02
5.90E+03
2.33E+03
1.58E+03
6.66E+03
1.00E+04

1.35E+03
0.00E+00
8.93E+02
6.22E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.85E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.05E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

4.76E+04
1.79E+04
1.22E+04
4.49E+02
3.75E+02
1.35E+02
3.67E+03
1.45E+03
9.84E+02
4.15E+03
6.26E+03

1.08E+03
0.00E+00
7.14E+02
4.97E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.28E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.40E+01

2.56E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.56E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00-

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.53E+01
2.14E+01
1.31E+00
7.02E-01
1.91E+00
0.00E+00

4.07E+00
4.07E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.16E+03
1.83E+03
1.12E+02
6.00E+01
1.64E+02
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.73E+03
1.46E+03
8.95E+01
4.79E+01
1.31E+02
0.00E+00

7.04E+01
7.04E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

211

624

2,231

2.01E+01
8.43E+00
1.66E-01
5.79E+00
5.45E+00
0.00E+00
2.29E-01

4.65E+01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
4.65E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.06E+04
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.36E+02
1.04E+04

1.71E+03
7.20E+02
1.42E+01
4.94E+02
4.65E+02
0.00E+00
1.95E+01

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

6.59E+03
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.47E+01
6.50E+03

1.37E+03
5.76E+02
1.13E+01
3.95E+02
3.72E+02
0.00E+00
1.56E+01

8.04E+02
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
8.04E+02

0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6,000

0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

A1- 574

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
2020 UPDATESUMMARY GHG AND ACID GAS EMISSIONS FROM FUELSPRODUCTION AND COMBUSTION FOR THE YEARS 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 - 2010, and 2014 - 2020
Estimate of Sulfur Oxide Emissions, Thousand Tonnes of Sulfur Dioxide
Source of Emissions
1990*
1996
2000
2005
Electricity Generation
186.7
136.5
25.6
54.1
District Heat Production
2.1
1.6
0.8
1.2
Coal Production/Preparation
38.5
20.0
9.8
12.7
Own Use
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.4
Industrial Sector
418.7
155.6
94.9
94.4
Transport Sector
11.3
5.0
2.5
3.4
Residential Sector
117.6
74.9
58.7
52.5
Agricultural Sector
7.5
2.3
2.0
3.6
Fisheries Sector
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
Military Sector
23.2
19.4
16.3
15.3
Public/Commercial
20.0
16.0
9.6
10.1
TOTAL*
830.8
432.7
221.1
248.3
* Total for 1990 includes emissions from non-specified consumption at 1.8 thousand tonnes.

2008
52.8
1.0
12.5
0.4
96.9
3.7
46.0
3.4
0.5
14.2
10.4
241.8

2009
43.4
1.1
14.2
0.4
111.7
2.8
46.7
3.2
0.5
13.9
10.4
248.3

YEAR
2010
37.0
1.2
14.4
0.4
108.9
3.1
47.7
3.3
0.5
14.2
10.5
241.3

2014
64.5
1.1
24.9
0.4
103.2
3.1
56.0
3.6
0.6
14.5
11.9
283.9

2015
65.7
1.1
27.8
0.5
98.0
3.2
61.1
3.7
0.5
15.1
12.6
289.1

2016
61.0
1.1
29.8
0.5
103.4
3.3
66.3
3.4
0.7
15.5
13.2
298.3

2017
56.9
1.2
16.6
0.5
97.6
3.0
77.7
3.1
0.7
15.2
14.2
286.7

2018
46.9
1.2
15.5
0.5
95.8
2.9
84.6
2.9
0.5
15.5
15.0
281.3

2019
47.1
1.2
18.1
0.5
95.8
2.9
85.9
2.6
0.5
15.5
15.3
285.4

2020
29.1
1.2
13.5
0.6
77.8
2.2
87.4
2.4
0.4
12.3
11.0
237.9

2008
33.4
0.7
7.8
0.3
0.5
60.8
3.0
47.5
5.2
0.4
10.2
7.1
176.9

2009
27.5
0.7
8.8
0.3
0.5
69.9
2.3
48.2
4.9
0.3
10.0
7.1
180.7

YEAR
2010
23.6
0.7
9.0
0.4
0.5
68.2
2.6
49.2
5.0
0.4
10.3
7.2
177.0

2014
41.1
0.7
15.5
0.3
0.6
64.7
2.6
54.1
5.5
0.5
10.4
8.1
204.0

2015
42.2
0.7
17.3
0.4
0.6
61.5
2.6
56.7
5.7
0.3
10.7
8.5
207.2

2016
39.5
0.7
18.6
0.4
0.6
64.9
2.7
59.4
5.1
0.5
11.0
8.9
212.4

2017
36.8
0.7
10.3
0.4
0.6
61.1
2.5
63.7
4.7
0.5
10.8
9.5
201.6

2018
30.6
0.7
9.7
0.4
0.6
59.9
2.4
67.3
4.4
0.4
10.9
10.1
197.5

2019
30.8
0.7
11.3
0.4
0.6
60.0
2.4
68.4
3.9
0.4
11.0
10.2
200.0

2020
19.4
0.7
8.4
0.4
0.6
48.7
1.8
69.5
3.7
0.3
8.8
7.4
169.8

2008
8.6
0.2
1.9
0.1
15.3
0.9
7.2
0.6
0.1
2.5
1.6
0.2
39.2

2009
7.0
0.2
2.2
0.1
17.6
0.7
7.3
0.5
0.1
2.4
1.6
0.1
39.8

2014
10.5
0.2
3.9
0.1
16.3
0.8
8.8
0.6
0.1
2.5
1.9
0.1
45.7

2015
10.8
0.2
4.3
0.1
15.5
0.8
9.6
0.6
0.1
2.6
2.0
0.1
46.7

2016
10.1
0.2
4.7
0.1
16.4
0.8
10.4
0.6
0.1
2.7
2.1
0.1
48.3

2017
9.4
0.2
2.6
0.1
15.4
0.7
12.2
0.5
0.1
2.6
2.2
0.1
46.2

2018
7.8
0.2
2.4
0.1
15.1
0.7
13.3
0.5
0.1
2.7
2.4
0.1
45.3

2019
7.9
0.2
2.8
0.1
15.1
0.7
13.5
0.4
0.1
2.7
2.4
0.1
46.0

2020
5.0
0.2
2.1
0.1
12.3
0.5
13.7
0.4
0.1
2.1
1.7
0.1
38.4

Estimate of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
1990*
1996
2000
2005
Electricity Generation
117.5
85.1
15.9
34.1
District Heat Production
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.7
Coal Production/Preparation
24.0
12.4
6.1
7.9
Own Use
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.3
Charcoal Production
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
Industrial Sector
262.5
97.5
59.8
59.3
Transport Sector
9.3
4.1
2.1
2.8
Residential Sector
84.4
61.3
51.6
49.3
Agricultural Sector
10.3
3.3
3.1
5.4
Fisheries Sector
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
Military Sector
15.3
13.5
11.7
11.1
Public/Commercial
12.6
10.3
6.3
6.9
TOTAL*
542.1
290.1
158.2
178.8
* Value for 1990 includes emissions from non-specified consumption at 1.4 thousand tonnes.

Estimate of Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Million Tonnes
Source of Emissions
1990*
1996
2000
2005
Electricity Generation
29.7
21.7
4.2
8.7
District Heat Production
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Coal Production/Preparation
6.0
3.1
1.5
2.0
Own Use
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
Industrial Sector
66.1
24.5
15.1
15.0
Transport Sector
2.8
1.2
0.6
0.8
Residential Sector
18.5
11.7
9.2
8.3
Agricultural Sector
1.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
Fisheries Sector
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
Military Sector
4.1
3.4
2.8
2.7
Public/Commercial
3.1
2.5
1.5
1.6
Non-Energy
1.7
0.4
0.2
0.2
TOTAL*
134.9
69.5
35.8
40.1
* Value for 1990 includes emissions from non-specified consumption at 0.4 million tonnes.

A1- 575

YEAR
2010
6.0
0.2
2.2
0.1
17.1
0.8
7.5
0.5
0.1
2.5
1.7
0.1
38.9

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimate of Methane Emissions, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
1990*
1996
2000
2005
Electricity Generation
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.2
District Heat Production
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal Production/Preparation
718.3
370.9
184.4
274.6
Own Use
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Charcoal Production
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Industrial Sector
1.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Sector
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
Residential Sector
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.3
Agricultural Sector
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.4
Fisheries Sector
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Military Sector
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
Public/Commercial
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
TOTAL*
724.1
375.2
188.0
278.6
* Value for 1990 includes emissions from non-specified consumption at 0.06 thousand tonnes.

2008
0.3
0.0
263.4
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.1
2.6
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
267.7

2009
0.2
0.0
308.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
2.6
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
313.0

2008
0.40
0.01
0.09
0.00
0.03
0.73
0.05
1.43
0.20
0.00
0.17
0.11
3.23

2008
849
17
217
1,648
789
54
196
179
16
3,964

YEAR
2010

2014
0.3
0.0
669.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.7
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
673.6

2015

0.2
0.0
327.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
2.7
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
331.7

0.3
0.0
782.8
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.6
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.1
787.2

2016
0.4
0.0
856.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
2.6
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
860.6

2017
0.3
0.0
375.6
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
379.5

2018
0.2
0.0
327.3
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
331.1

2019
0.3
0.0
417.3
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.1
421.0

2020
0.2
0.0
289.6
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.1
293.2

2009
0.33
0.01
0.10
0.00
0.03
0.83
0.04
1.45
0.19
0.00
0.17
0.11
3.27

YEAR
2010
0.28
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.03
0.81
0.04
1.47
0.19
0.01
0.17
0.11
3.24

2014
0.49
0.01
0.18
0.01
0.03
0.77
0.04
1.52
0.21
0.01
0.17
0.12
3.57

2015
0.51
0.01
0.20
0.01
0.03
0.73
0.04
1.53
0.22
0.00
0.17
0.13
3.59

2016
0.48
0.01
0.22
0.01
0.03
0.77
0.04
1.53
0.20
0.01
0.17
0.13
3.61

2017
0.44
0.01
0.12
0.01
0.03
0.73
0.04
1.45
0.18
0.01
0.17
0.14
3.33

2018
0.37
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.04
0.71
0.04
1.46
0.17
0.00
0.17
0.15
3.25

2019
0.37
0.01
0.13
0.01
0.04
0.71
0.04
1.49
0.15
0.00
0.17
0.15
3.28

2020
0.24
0.01
0.10
0.01
0.04
0.58
0.03
1.51
0.14
0.00
0.14
0.11
2.91

2009
723
18
246
1,919
804
51
196
180
11
4,147
-

YEAR
2010
613
20
250
1,864
818
52
196
181
11
4,005
-

2014
1,066
19
433
1,762
963
57
203
205
33
4,741
-

2015
1,066
19
483
1,663
1,048
59
208
216
31
4,793
-

2016
971
19
518
1,755
1,138
53
214
226
35
4,929
-

2017
952
21
288
1,676
1,335
49
216
242
24
4,803
-

2018
776
21
270
1,645
1,453
46
222
256
13
4,702
-

2019
776
21
315
1,645
1,477
41
222
260
13
4,769
-

2020
456
20
234
1,330
1,502
39
184
188
7
3,959
-

Estimate of Nitrous Oxide Emissions, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
1990*
1996
2000
2005
Electricity Generation
1.40
1.02
0.20
0.41
District Heat Production
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
Coal Production/Preparation
0.28
0.15
0.07
0.09
Own Use
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
Charcoal Production
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
Industrial Sector
3.13
1.16
0.72
0.71
Transport Sector
0.14
0.06
0.03
0.04
Residential Sector
1.50
1.39
1.30
1.34
Agricultural Sector
0.38
0.12
0.12
0.21
Fisheries Sector
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.01
Military Sector
0.19
0.20
0.19
0.18
Public/Commercial
0.16
0.14
0.09
0.11
TOTAL*
7.31
4.31
2.76
3.15
* Value for 1990 includes emissions from non-specified consumption at 0.02 thousand tonnes.

Estimate of Coal Ash Production, Thousand Tonnes
Assumes that coal is on average

20% ashSource of Emissions
1990
1996
Electricity Generation
3,133
2,207
District Heat Production
36
26
Coal Production/Preparation
670
347
Industrial Sector
7,135
2,661
Residential Sector
2,011
1,293
Agricultural Sector
104
34
Military Sector
317
269
Public/Commercial
347
278
Non-Energy
146
36
TOTAL
13,898
7,152
Solid Wastes from SOx controls (dry weight CaSO4)

2000
336
10
171
1,590
1,010
30
226
166
11
3,551

2005
895
20
221
1,597
902
56
208
175
16
4,091

A1- 576

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sensitivity Analysis: Total Coal Ash (Thousand Tonnes) vs. Ash Fraction Assumed
Ash Fraction
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%

1990
13,898
6,949
10,423
13,89817,372
20,84624,321

1996
7,152
3,576
5,364
7,152
8,940
10,727
12,515

2000
3,551
1,775
2,663
3,551
4,438
5,326
6,214

2005

1990

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

4,091
2,046
3,068
4,091
5,114
6,137
7,160

2008
3,964
1,982
2,973
3,964
4,955
5,946
6,938

2009
4,147
2,074
3,111
4,147
5,184
6,221
7,258

YEAR
2010
4,005
2,002
3,004
4,005
5,006
6,007
7,008

2014
4,741
2,371
3,556
4,741
5,927
7,112
8,297

2015
4,793
2,396
3,594
4,793
5,991
7,189
8,387

Thousand Tonnes Ash

30,00025,00020,00015,00010,000

5,000

-

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ash Fraction in Coal
SUMMARY OF ACID GAS AND CO2 EMISSIONS

YEAR
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Sulfur Oxides(thousandNitrogen Oxides
tonnes)(thousand tonnes)
831
542
433
290
221
158
248
179
242
177
248
181
241
177
284
204
289
207
298
212
287
202
281
197
285
200
238
170

CarbonDioxide(million
tonnes)
135
70
36
40
39
40
39
46
47
48
46
45
46
38

A1- 577

30%

35%

2016
4,929
2,464
3,697
4,929
6,161
7,393
8,626

2017
4,803
2,402
3,602
4,803
6,004
7,205
8,406

2018
4,702
2,351
3,526
4,702
5,877
7,053
8,228

2019
4,769
2,385
3,577
4,769
5,962
7,154
8,346

2020
3,959
1,980
2,969
3,959
4,949
5,939
6,929

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL FROM IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5)Source: https://www.ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf
Carbon Dioxide
1Methane28
Nitrous Oxide
265

SUMMARY OF SOx and NOx Emissions, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Thousand Tonnes
TOTAL
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

1990
830.8
229.1
-

1996
432.7
158.8
-

Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production

186.7
2.1
38.5
1.8
-

ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGYSULFUR OXIDES
2009
2010
248.3
241.3
59.0
53.0

221.1
36.5
-

2005
248.3
68.4

2008
241.8
66.7

136.5
1.6
20.0
0.7
-

25.6
0.8
9.8
0.3
-

54.1
1.2
12.7
0.4
-

52.8
1.0
12.5
0.4
-

43.4
1.1
14.2
0.4
-

601.6

273.9

184.5

179.9

175.1

418.7
11.3
117.6
7.5
1.6
23.2
20.0
1.8
-

155.6
5.0
74.9
2.3
0.6
19.4
16.0
-

94.9
2.5
58.7
2.0
0.5
16.3
9.6
-

94.4
3.4
52.5
3.6
0.6
15.3
10.1
-

96.9
3.7
46.0
3.4
0.5
14.2
10.4
-

1990
542.1
145.1
117.5
1.3
24.0
1.4
0.8
1.4
-

1996
290.1
99.7
85.1
1.0
12.4
0.5
0.7
0.5
-

2005
178.8
43.6

2008
176.9
42.7

34.1
0.7
7.9
0.3
0.5
-

33.4
0.7
7.8
0.3
0.5
-

27.5
0.7
8.8
0.3
0.5
-

ENERGY DEMAND

397.1

190.3

134.9

-

-

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDNON-ENERGY

262.5
9.3
84.4
10.3
1.2
15.3
12.6
1.4
-

97.5
4.1
61.3
3.3
0.4
13.5
10.3
-

59.8
2.1
51.6
3.1
0.4
11.7
6.3
-

59.3
2.8
49.3
5.4
0.4
11.1
6.9
-

60.8
3.0
47.5
5.2
0.4
10.2
7.1
-

TOTAL
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Own UseLosses

2000

2000
158.2
23.3
15.9
0.5
6.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
-

A1- 578

2014
283.8
90.8

2015
289.7
95.7

2016
299.2
93.3

2017
287.2
75.6

2018
282.4
65.3

2019
286.4
68.0

2020
239.4
45.9

37.0
1.2
14.4
0.4
-

64.5
1.1
24.9
0.4
-

65.7
1.1
27.8
0.5
-

61.0
1.1
29.8
0.5
-

56.9
1.2
16.6
0.5
-

46.9
1.2
15.5
0.5
-

47.1
1.2
18.1
0.5
-

29.1
1.2
13.5
0.6
-

189.4

188.3

193.0

194.0

205.9

211.5

217.1

218.5

193.5

111.7
2.8
46.7
3.2
0.5
13.9
10.4
-

108.9
3.1
47.7
3.3
0.5
14.2
10.5
-

103.2
3.1
56.0
3.6
0.6
14.5
11.9
-

98.0
3.2
61.1
3.7
0.5
15.1
12.6
-

103.4
3.3
66.3
3.4
0.7
15.5
13.2
-

97.6
3.0
77.7
3.1
0.7
15.2
14.2
-

95.8
2.9
84.6
2.9
0.5
15.5
15.0
-

95.8
2.9
85.9
2.6
0.5
15.5
15.3
-

77.8
2.2
87.4
2.4
0.4
12.3
11.0
-

2014
203.9
58.1

2015
207.8
61.7

2016
213.2
60.6

2017
202.2
49.5

2018
198.7
43.3

2019
201.3
45.2

2020
171.4
31.2

23.6
0.7
9.0
0.4
0.5
-

41.1
0.7
15.5
0.3
0.6
-

42.2
0.7
17.3
0.4
0.6
-

39.5
0.7
18.6
0.4
0.6
-

36.8
0.7
10.3
0.4
0.6
-

30.6
0.7
9.7
0.4
0.6
-

30.8
0.7
11.3
0.4
0.6
-

19.4
0.7
8.4
0.4
0.6
-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

69.9
2.3
48.2
4.9
0.3
10.0
7.1
-

68.2
2.6
49.2
5.0
0.4
10.3
7.2
-

64.7
2.6
54.1
5.5
0.5
10.4
8.1
-

61.5
2.6
56.7
5.7
0.3
10.7
8.5
-

64.9
2.7
59.4
5.1
0.5
11.0
8.9
-

61.1
2.5
63.7
4.7
0.5
10.8
9.5
-

59.9
2.4
67.3
4.4
0.4
10.9
10.1
-

60.0
2.4
68.4
3.9
0.4
11.0
10.2
-

48.7
1.8
69.5
3.7
0.3
8.8
7.4
-

NITROGEN OXIDES
2009
2010
180.7
177.0
37.8
34.2

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
SUMMARY OF SOx and NOx Emissions, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Thousand Tonnes
TOTAL
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDTOTALENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIEDCARBON DIOXIDE
2009
2010
39,84838,881-

1990
134,869-

1996
69,522-

2000
35,831-

2005
40,126-

2008
39,171-36,502
29,720
331
6,015
436
-

25,213
21,685
247
3,115
166
-

5,943
4,213
123
1,534
73
-

10,917
8,651
186
1,982
97
-

10,764
8,553
166
1,948
98
-

9,457
6,982
168
2,210
96
-

98,368
66,1072,770
18,526
1,295
337
4,052
3,119
435

44,30924,517
1,221
11,736
400
121
3,382
2,505
-

29,88815,126
614
9,214
340
101
2,842
1,496
-

29,20914,967
820
8,251
589
111
2,692
1,586
-

28,407
15,323
897
7,237
559
105
2,474
1,624
-

30,391
17,565
692
7,335
531
98
2,403
1,639
-

1990
724.09
1.14
0.72
0.01
718.25
0.06
0.25

1996
375.17
0.89
0.61
0.01
370.90
0.02
0.20

2000
188.02
0.41
0.22
0.01
184.44
0.01
0.15

2005
278.58
0.43
0.23
0.00
274.56
0.01
0.15

2008
267.70
0.46
0.26
0.00
263.40
0.01
0.15

4.81
1.45
0.41
1.77
0.79
0.03
0.22
0.08
0.06

3.43
0.52
0.18
2.11
0.25
0.01
0.26
0.09
-

3.20
0.38
0.09
2.13
0.25
0.01
0.27
0.08
-

3.62
0.35
0.13
2.32
0.43
0.01
0.27
0.11
-

3.87
0.34
0.14
2.60
0.42
0.01
0.25
0.11
-

A1- 579

2014
45,669-2015
46,897-

2016
48,574-2017
46,361-

2018
45,718-2019
46,399-2020
38,879
-

8,551
6,016
184
2,244
108
-

14,59010,457
172
3,886
106
-

15,583
10,778
176
4,335
118
-

15,347
10,138
176
4,653
123
-

12,430
9,364
187
2,587
118
-

10,931
7,804
187
2,424
131
-

11,400
7,871
187
2,825
131
-

7,929
5,010
187
2,102
137
-

30,32917,149
766
7,493
543
106
2,488
1,655
-

31,07916,280
754
8,798
588
130
2,521
1,878
-

31,314
15,495
773
9,603
608
95
2,624
1,987
-

33,22816,366805
10,428
558
148
2,706
2,086
-

33,931
15,352734
12,206
501
141
2,627
2,240
-

34,787
15,069707
13,286
472
103
2,651
2,370
-

34,99915,069706
13,498
420
103
2,666
2,409
-

30,95012,263529
13,731
400
92
2,069
1,737
-

METHANE20092010
312.96331.74
0.39
0.38
0.18
0.17
0.00
0.00
308.75327.46
0.01
0.01
0.15
0.15

2014
673.64
0.54
0.29
0.00
669.22
0.01
0.17

2015
787.23
0.63
0.34
0.00
782.76
0.02
0.17

2016
860.59
0.67
0.35
0.00
856.15
0.02
0.18

2017
379.48
0.54
0.27
0.00
375.60
0.02
0.18

2018
331.11
0.54
0.24
0.00
327.31
0.02
0.18

2019
421.08
0.56
0.25
0.00
417.28
0.02
0.18

2020
293.25
0.52
0.20
0.00
289.62
0.02
0.19

3.95
0.35
0.12
2.67
0.44
0.01
0.24
0.12
-

3.91
0.35
0.12
2.62
0.46
0.01
0.24
0.12
-

3.85
0.37
0.12
2.56
0.41
0.02
0.24
0.13
-

3.40
0.31
0.11
2.22
0.37
0.01
0.23
0.13
-

3.30
0.31
0.11
2.15
0.36
0.01
0.23
0.14
-

3.29
0.31
0.11
2.18
0.31
0.01
0.23
0.14
-

3.15
0.26
0.08
2.21
0.30
0.01
0.19
0.10
-

3.86
0.36
0.10
2.64
0.40
0.01
0.24
0.11
-

3.94
0.36
0.12
2.69
0.40
0.01
0.25
0.11
-

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
NITROUS OXIDE
2010
2009
3.24
3.27
-

2014
3.57
-

2015
3.60
-

2016
3.62
-

2017
3.34
-

2018
3.27
-

2019
3.29
-

2020
2.93
-

0.48
0.33
0.01
0.10
0.00
0.03

0.43
0.28
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.03

0.72
0.49
0.01
0.18
0.01
0.03

0.77
0.51
0.01
0.20
0.01
0.03

0.76
0.48
0.01
0.22
0.01
0.03

0.62
0.44
0.01
0.12
0.01
0.03

0.55
0.37
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.04

0.58
0.37
0.01
0.13
0.01
0.04

0.41
0.24
0.01
0.10
0.01
0.04

2.79
0.83
0.04
1.45
0.19
0.00
0.17
0.11
-

2.81
0.81
0.04
1.47
0.19
0.01
0.17
0.11
-

2.84
0.77
0.04
1.52
0.21
0.01
0.17
0.12
-

2.83
0.73
0.04
1.53
0.22
0.00
0.17
0.13
-

2.86
0.77
0.04
1.53
0.20
0.01
0.17
0.13
-

2.72
0.73
0.04
1.45
0.18
0.01
0.17
0.14
-

2.71
0.71
0.04
1.46
0.17
0.00
0.17
0.15
-

2.72
0.71
0.04
1.49
0.15
0.00
0.17
0.15
-

2.52
0.58
0.03
1.51
0.14
0.00
0.14
0.11
-

CARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENTS (Thousand Tonnes CO2e)
2015
2014
2010
2009
2008
2005
69,89365,47649,02949,47747,521
48,7602016
73,631

2017
57,872

2018
55,855

2019
58,1892020
47,09014,79615,805

15,567

12,61011,093

11,416

7,943

6,096
186
11,441110
12

10,596
174
22,673108
13

10,922
178
26,307120
14

10,275
178
28,684
125
14

9,489
190
13,136
120
14

7,909
189
11,619
133
14

7,878
187
14,509
131
5

5,016
187
10,211137
531,23931,18431,94432,17334,09434,74635,59835,091

31,038

17,795
704
7,793
592
99
2,453
1,673
-

17,374
781
7,959
606
108
2,540
1,688
-

16,494
768
9,276
656
132
2,573
1,914
-

15,699787
10,080
679
96
2,677
2,025
-

16,581821
10,906
622
150
2,759
2,125
-

15,553748
12,654
559
144
2,678
2,281
-

15,266720
13,734
527
104
2,703
2,413
-

15,078709
13,559
428
103
2,672
2,413
-

12,270531
13,793
408
93
2,074
1,740
-

Units: Thousand Tonnes
2005
3.15
-

2008
3.23
-

0.20
0.01
0.07
0.00
0.03

0.55
0.41
0.01
0.09
0.00
0.03

0.54
0.40
0.01
0.09
0.00
0.03

3.08
1.16
0.06
1.39
0.12
0.01
0.20
0.14
-

2.45
0.72
0.03
1.30
0.12
0.00
0.19
0.09
-

2.60
0.71
0.04
1.34
0.21
0.01
0.18
0.11
-

2.69
0.73
0.05
1.43
0.20
0.00
0.17
0.11
-

TOTAL

1990
157,082

1996
81,1702000
41,828ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

37,00425,564

6,037

11,074

10,920

9,594

8,677

Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production

30,112335
26,201443
20

21,973251
13,539
168
16

4,272
125
6,718
74
12

8,766
189
9,695
98
12

8,667
168
9,348
99
12

7,075
170
10,88398
12

ENERGY DEMAND

99,97045,222

30,62730,00029,227

INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIED

66,9782,819
18,973
1,417
342
4,109
3,164
442

24,8401,243
12,164
439
123
3,442
2,544
-

15,326
625
9,618
379
102
2,899
1,522
-

15,165
835
8,672
656
112
2,748
1,618
-

15,525
914
7,688
624
106
2,526
1,657
-

TOTAL
ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONElectricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTRESIDENTIALAGRICULTURALFISHERIESMILITARY
PUBLIC/COMMLNON-SPECIFIED

1990
7.31
-

1996
4.31
-

1.77
1.40
0.02
0.28
0.02
0.05

1.23
1.02
0.01
0.15
0.01
0.04

5.54
3.13
0.14
1.50
0.38
0.02
0.19
0.16
0.02

2000
2.76
0.31
-

A1- 580

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK Air Pollutant Emissions in 2010, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Sector
Agricultural Sector
Fisheries Sector
Military Sector
Public/Commercial
TOTAL

SulfurDioxide
37.0
1.2
14.4
0.4
108.9
3.1
47.7
3.3
0.5
14.2
10.5
241.3

Nitrogen
Oxides
23.6
0.7
9.0
0.4
0.5
68.2
2.6
49.2
5.0
0.4
10.3
7.2
177.0

CarbonDioxide
6,016
184
2,244
108
17,149
766
7,493
543
106
2,488
1,655
38,751

Methane0.17
0.00
327.46
0.01
0.15
0.36
0.12
2.69
0.40
0.01
0.25
0.11
331.7

Nitrous
Oxide
0.28
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.03
0.81
0.04
1.47
0.19
0.01
0.17
0.11
3.24

Estimates of DPRK Air Pollutant Emissions in 2017, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Sector
Agricultural Sector
Fisheries Sector
Military Sector
Public/Commercial
TOTAL

SulfurDioxideNitrogen
Oxides

56.9
1.1
29.8
0.5
97.6
3.0
77.7
3.1
0.7
15.2
14.2
299.9

36.8
0.7
10.3
0.4
0.6
61.1
2.5
63.7
4.7
0.5
10.8
9.5
201.6

CarbonDioxideMethane

9,364
176
4,653
123
15,352734
12,206
501
141
2,627
2,240
48,1170.27
0.00
375.60
0.02
0.18
0.31
0.11
2.22
0.37
0.01
0.23
0.13
379.5

Nitrous
Oxide
0.44
0.01
0.12
0.01
0.03
0.73
0.04
1.45
0.18
0.01
0.17
0.14
3.33

Estimates of DPRK Air Pollutant Emissions in 2018, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Sector
Agricultural Sector
Fisheries Sector
Military Sector
Public/Commercial
TOTAL

SulfurDioxide
46.9
1.2
16.6
0.5
95.8
2.9
84.6
2.9
0.5
15.5
15.0
282.3

Nitrogen
Oxides
30.6
0.7
9.7
0.4
0.6
59.9
2.4
67.3
4.4
0.4
10.9
10.1
197.5

A1- 581

CarbonDioxide
7,804
187
2,587
118
15,069707
13,286
472
103
2,651
2,370
45,354

Methane0.24
0.00
327.31
0.02
0.18
0.31
0.11
2.15
0.36
0.01
0.23
0.14
331.1

Nitrous
Oxide
0.37
0.01
0.11
0.01
0.04
0.71
0.04
1.46
0.17
0.00
0.17
0.15
3.25

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK Air Pollutant Emissions in 2019, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Sector
Agricultural Sector
Fisheries Sector
Military Sector
Public/Commercial
TOTAL

Sulfur
47.1
1.2
15.5
0.5
95.8
2.9
85.9
2.6
0.5
15.5
15.3
282.8

Nitrogen
30.8
0.7
11.3
0.4
0.6
60.0
2.4
68.4
3.9
0.4
11.0
10.2
200.0

Carbon
7,871
187
2,424
131
15,069706
13,498
420
103
2,666
2,409
45,482

Methane0.25
0.00
417.28
0.02
0.18
0.31
0.11
2.18
0.31
0.01
0.23
0.14
421.0

Nitrous
0.37
0.01
0.13
0.01
0.04
0.71
0.04
1.49
0.15
0.00
0.17
0.15
3.28

Estimates of DPRK Air Pollutant Emissions in 2020, Thousand Tonnes
Source of Emissions
Electricity Generation
District Heat Production
Coal Production/Preparation
Own UseCharcoal Production
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Sector
Agricultural Sector
Fisheries Sector
Military Sector
Public/Commercial
TOTAL

Sulfur
29.1
1.2
18.1
0.5
77.8
2.2
87.4
2.4
0.4
12.3
11.0
242.5

Nitrogen
19.4
0.7
8.4
0.4
0.6
48.7
1.8
69.5
3.7
0.3
8.8
7.4
169.8

A1- 582

Carbon
5,010
187
2,825
131
12,263529
13,731
400
92
2,069
1,737
38,973

Methane0.20
0.00
289.62
0.02
0.19
0.26
0.08
2.21
0.30
0.01
0.19
0.10
293.2

Nitrous
0.24
0.01
0.10
0.01
0.04
0.58
0.03
1.51
0.14
0.00
0.14
0.11
2.91

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK CO 2e Emissions from Deforestation
1990
Reduction in Above-ground
Biomass, Million Tonnes
Ratio of Below-ground Biomass
to Above-ground Biomass
Assumed Net Loss in Soil
Carbon Due to Deforestation(relative to above-groundbiomass)
Fraction of Carbon Assumed
Lost
Conversion Factor, Tonnes
Carbon per Tonne Biomass
Conversion Factor, Tonnes CO2
per Tonne Carbon
Annual Estimated Carbon
Dioxide Equivalent Emissions
from Deforestation (Mt CO2e)

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

2014

2015

2.85

2.70

2.59

2.77

2.78

2.74

2.71

1.34

1.03

1.02

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67

6.32

5.99

5.74

6.15

6.16

6.08

6.00

2.98

2.27

2.26

Estimates of DPRK CO 2e Emissions from Deforestation
2017
Reduction in Above-ground
Biomass, Million Tonnes
Ratio of Below-ground Biomass
to Above-ground Biomass
Assumed Net Loss in Soil
Carbon Due to Deforestation(relative to above-groundbiomass)
Fraction of Carbon Assumed
Lost
Conversion Factor, Tonnes
Carbon per Tonne Biomass
Conversion Factor, Tonnes CO2
per Tonne Carbon
Annual Estimated Carbon
Dioxide Equivalent Emissions
from Deforestation (Mt CO2e)

2016

2018

2019

2020

Notes

1.01

1.01

1.00

1.00 Calculated from values in "Biomass" worksheet

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43 See Note 1

0

0

0

90%

90%

90%

90% Assumption

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47 From Source in Note 1

3.67

3.67

3.67

3.67 From Source in Note 1

2.25

2.24

2.23

2.22 Calculated

0 Unknown, but assumed to be zero based on IPCC Tier 1 Method (Source in Note 1 )A1- 583

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK CO 2 Emissions from Cement Manufacture (non-energy emissions only)
1990
Production of Cement, Million
TonnesFraction of Cement Weight as
Clinker
Implied Clinker Production (Mt)
Emission Factor, t CO2 per t
Clinker
Implied CO2 emissions from
Cement Manufacture

1996

2000

2005

2008

2009

2010

2014

2015

11.00

4.40

3.30

3.52

4.40

6.13

6.28

6.68

6.70

7.08

0.85
9.35

0.85
3.74

0.85
2.81

0.85
2.99

0.85
3.74

0.85
5.21

0.85
5.34

0.85
5.67

0.85
5.69

0.85
6.02

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507

4.74

1.90

1.42

1.52

1.90

2.64

2.71

2.88

2.89

3.05

Estimates of DPRK CO 2 Emissions from Cement Manufacture (non-energy emissions only)
2017
Production of Cement, Million
TonnesFraction of Cement Weight as
Clinker
Implied Clinker Production (Mt)
Emission Factor, t CO2 per t
Clinker
Implied CO2 emissions from
Cement Manufacture

2016

2018

2019

2020

Notes

6.84

6.38

6.38

5.06 Calculated from values in "Industry" and "Industry-96-on" worksheets

0.85
5.81

0.85
5.42

0.85
5.42

0.85 From DPRK INDC document, 2016
4.30 Calculated

0.507

0.507

0.507

0.507 From Source in Note 2

2.95

2.75

2.75

2.18

A1- 584

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK CO 2e Emissions from Rice Farming
1990

1996

2008

2009

2010

Hectares of Rice Paddies, DPRK
(see Note 5 and "Agriculture"
worksheet in this workbook)600000645000535000583400570390569000570000Assumed IPCC Tier 1 Emission
Factor (kg/ha-day) (See Note 3 )

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Estimated Weighted AverageDays of Rice Cropping per year
(See Note 4 )168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75

131.63141.50117.37127.98125.13124.82125.04

3,686

3,962

3,286

3,584

3,504

3,495

3,501

FAO Methane Emissions
Estimates from Rice Paddies(Note 5 ), thousand tonnes CH4

106.82103.2695.25

103.87101.55101.30101.48FAO Methane Emissions
Estimates from Rice Paddies(Note 5 ), thousand tonnes CO2e

2,243

2,169

2,000

2,181

2,133

2,127

2,131

Implied Methane Emissions from
Rice Paddies, thousand tonnes
CH4
Implied Methane Emissions from
Rice Paddies, thousand tonnes
CO2e

2000

A1- 585

2005

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Estimates of DPRK CO 2e Emissions from Rice Farming
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

475158 460591.85 460591.8 460591.8

Hectares of Rice Paddies, DPRK
(see Note 5 and "Agriculture"
worksheet in this workbook)525000465200468700Assumed IPCC Tier 1 Emission
Factor (kg/ha-day) (See Note 3 )

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Estimated Weighted AverageDays of Rice Cropping per year
(See Note 4 )168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75115.17102.05102.82104.24101.04101.04101.04

3,225

2,857

2,879

2,919

2,829

2,829

2,829

FAO Methane Emissions
Estimates from Rice Paddies(Note 5 ), thousand tonnes CH4

93.47

82.82

83.45

84.60

FAO Methane Emissions
Estimates from Rice Paddies(Note 5 ), thousand tonnes CO2e

1,963

1,739

1,752

1,777

Implied Methane Emissions from
Rice Paddies, thousand tonnes
CH4
Implied Methane Emissions from
Rice Paddies, thousand tonnes
CO2e

A1- 586

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Notes and Sources
1 Calculation of below-ground biomass lost based on factors from Table 4.4 of the IPCC Landuse change emissions methods document
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Chapter 4, Forest Lands,
available as http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_04_Ch4_Forest_Land.pdf.
We assume an average of low-stocked temperate conifer and "other broadleaf" forests.
Note that not all below-ground biomass is immediately lost when a forest area is cleared, but as the rate of deforestationin the DPRK seems to have been more or less constant, we assume that over time the average rate of below-ground biomass(root biomass) loss will sum to effectively 100 percent, that is, annual biomass loss from areas deforested in previous years.
will effectively sum to an average of the below-ground biomass present in the areas deforested in any given year.
2 Calculated based on IPCC document "CO2 EMISSIONS FROM CEMENT PRODUCTION", undated,chapter in Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories , chapter by
Michael J. Gibbs, Peter Soyka and David Conneely,available as http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/bgp/3_1_Cement_Production.pdf
3 Assumes value and emissions estimation approach from 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Volume 4, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use , Chapter 5, "Cropland", available
as https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_05_Ch5_Cropland.pdf/
4 Assumes
75% "Pyongyang" variety with a cropping period of
180 days/yr andvariety with a cropping period of
135 days/yr. Source: Woon-Keun Kim (1998), "THE AGRICULTURALSITUATION OF NORTH KOREA", available as https://www.fftc.org.tw/htmlarea_file/library/20110726131553/eb475.pdf.
5 The following data for rice cultivation and estimated emissions from rice cultivation in the DPRK were downloaded fromthe United Nations Food and Agriculture Organizatinon's FAOSTAT, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GR, 7/8/2020.

A1- 58725% "Yongzu"

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Area of Rice harvested
Year

Unit
1961 ha1962 ha1963 ha1964 ha1965 ha1966 ha1967 ha1968 ha1969 ha1970 ha1971 ha1972 ha1973 ha1974 ha1975 ha1976 ha1977 ha1978 ha1979 ha1980 ha1981 ha1982 ha1983 ha1984 ha1985 ha1986 ha1987 ha1988 ha1989 ha1990 ha1991 ha1992 ha1993 ha1994 ha1995 ha1996 ha1997 ha1998 ha1999 ha2000 ha2001 ha2002 ha2003 ha2004 ha2005 ha2006 ha2007 ha2008 ha2009 ha2010 ha2011 ha2012 ha2013 ha2014 ha2015 ha2016 ha2017 haValue
Flag
420000 F
440000 F
450000 F
480000 F
480000 F
500000 F
500000 F
500000 F
530000 F
530000 F
530000 F
530000 F
570000 F
600000 F
625000 F
630000 F
650000 F
657000 F
660000 F
650000 F
670000 F
640000645000645000645000645000645000645000630000600000588000592000589000583000582000580000611000580000580000535000572000582857584000583000583400583400583400570390569000570000571000563000547000525000465200 *468700 *475158A1- 588

Flag Description
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
FAO estimate
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Official data
Unofficial figure
Unofficial figure
Official data

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Implied emission factor for CH4 (Rice cultivation)
Year
Unit
Value
Flag
1961 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1962 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1963 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1964 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1965 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1966 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1967 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1968 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1969 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1970 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1971 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1972 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1973 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1974 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1975 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1976 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1977 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1978 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1979 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1980 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1981 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1982 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1983 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1984 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1985 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1986 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1987 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1988 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1989 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1990 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1991 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1992 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1993 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1994 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1995 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1996 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1997 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1998 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
1999 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2000 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2001 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2002 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2003 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2004 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2005 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2006 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2007 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2008 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2009 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2010 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2011 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2012 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2013 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2014 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2015 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2016 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc
2017 g CH4/m2
17.8038 Fc

A1- 589

Flag Description
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Emissions (CH4) (Rice cultivation)
Year
Unit
1961 gigagrams
1962 gigagrams
1963 gigagrams
1964 gigagrams
1965 gigagrams
1966 gigagrams
1967 gigagrams
1968 gigagrams
1969 gigagrams
1970 gigagrams
1971 gigagrams
1972 gigagrams
1973 gigagrams
1974 gigagrams
1975 gigagrams
1976 gigagrams
1977 gigagrams
1978 gigagrams
1979 gigagrams
1980 gigagrams
1981 gigagrams
1982 gigagrams
1983 gigagrams
1984 gigagrams
1985 gigagrams
1986 gigagrams
1987 gigagrams
1988 gigagrams
1989 gigagrams
1990 gigagrams
1991 gigagrams
1992 gigagrams
1993 gigagrams
1994 gigagrams
1995 gigagrams
1996 gigagrams
1997 gigagrams
1998 gigagrams
1999 gigagrams2000 gigagrams
2001 gigagrams
2002 gigagrams
2003 gigagrams
2004 gigagrams2005 gigagrams
2006 gigagrams2007 gigagrams
2008 gigagrams2009 gigagrams2010 gigagrams
2011 gigagrams2012 gigagrams2013 gigagrams2014 gigagrams2015 gigagrams
2016 gigagrams2017 gigagrams

Value

Flag
74.776 Fc
78.3367 Fc
80.1171 Fc
85.4582 Fc
85.4582 Fc
89.019 Fc
89.019 Fc
89.019 Fc
94.3601 Fc
94.3601 Fc
94.3601 Fc
94.3601 Fc
101.4817 Fc
106.8228 Fc
111.2737 Fc
112.1639 Fc
115.7247 Fc
116.971 Fc
117.5051 Fc
115.7247 Fc
119.2855 Fc
113.9443 Fc
114.8345 Fc
114.8345 Fc
114.8345 Fc
114.8345 Fc
114.8345 Fc
114.8345 Fc
112.1639 Fc
106.8228 Fc
104.6863 Fc
105.3985 Fc
104.8644 Fc
103.7962 Fc
103.6181 Fc
103.262 Fc
108.7812 Fc
103.262 Fc
103.262 Fc
95.2503 Fc
101.8377 Fc
103.7707 Fc
103.9742 Fc
103.7962 Fc
103.8674 Fc
103.8674 Fc
103.8674 Fc
101.5511 Fc
101.3036 Fc
101.4817 Fc
101.6597 Fc
100.2354 Fc
97.3868 Fc
93.4699 Fc
82.8233 Fc
83.4464 Fc
84.5961 Fc

A1- 590

Flag Description
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Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
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Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
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Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Emissions (CO2eq) (Rice cultivation)
Year
Unit
1961 gigagrams
1962 gigagrams
1963 gigagrams
1964 gigagrams
1965 gigagrams
1966 gigagrams
1967 gigagrams
1968 gigagrams
1969 gigagrams
1970 gigagrams
1971 gigagrams
1972 gigagrams
1973 gigagrams
1974 gigagrams
1975 gigagrams
1976 gigagrams
1977 gigagrams
1978 gigagrams
1979 gigagrams
1980 gigagrams
1981 gigagrams
1982 gigagrams
1983 gigagrams
1984 gigagrams
1985 gigagrams
1986 gigagrams
1987 gigagrams
1988 gigagrams
1989 gigagrams
1990 gigagrams
1991 gigagrams
1992 gigagrams
1993 gigagrams
1994 gigagrams
1995 gigagrams
1996 gigagrams
1997 gigagrams
1998 gigagrams
1999 gigagrams2000 gigagrams
2001 gigagrams
2002 gigagrams
2003 gigagrams
2004 gigagrams2005 gigagrams
2006 gigagrams2007 gigagrams
2008 gigagrams2009 gigagrams2010 gigagrams
2011 gigagrams2012 gigagrams2013 gigagrams2014 gigagrams2015 gigagrams
2016 gigagrams2017 gigagrams

Value
Flag
1570.2952 Fc
1645.0711 Fc
1682.4591 Fc
1794.623 Fc
1794.623 Fc
1869.399 Fc
1869.399 Fc
1869.399 Fc
1981.5629 Fc
1981.5629 Fc
1981.5629 Fc
1981.5629 Fc
2131.1149 Fc
2243.2788 Fc
2336.7487 Fc
2355.4427 Fc
2430.2187 Fc
2456.3903 Fc
2467.6067 Fc
2430.2187 Fc
2504.9947 Fc
2392.8307 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2411.5247 Fc
2355.4427 Fc
2243.2788 Fc
2198.4132 Fc
2213.3684 Fc
2202.152 Fc
2179.7192 Fc
2175.9804 Fc
2168.5028 Fc
2284.4056 Fc
2168.5028 Fc
2168.5028 Fc
2000.2569 Fc
2138.5925 Fc
2179.1846 Fc
2183.458 Fc
2179.7192 Fc
2181.2148 Fc
2181.2148 Fc
2181.2148 Fc
2132.573 Fc
2127.3761 Fc
2131.1149 Fc
2134.8537 Fc
2104.9433 Fc
2045.1225 Fc
1962.8689 Fc
1739.2888 Fc
1752.3746 Fc
1776.519 Fc

A1- 591

Flag Description
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Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
Calculated data
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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimates of Nuclear Waste Generation (for Simpo Reactors, if Built)
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
Estimates of Nuclear Waste Generation
Assumptions for Calculation of Low-Level Wastes(Data from sources 1 through 3)

Reactor Type
PWR

Cu.m./GW cap./yr
Curies/cu.m.
Curies/GW cap/yr
High Est.
Low Est.
High Est.
Low Est.
High Est.
Low Est.
750
439
6.45
1.5
4000
1,139

Assuming an annual capacity factor of
Annual Generation per GW cap./yr =75%
6.57 TWheLow-Level Waste Ranges per TWh e
Reactor Type
PWR

Cubic Meters
High Est.
Low Est.
114
67

CuriesHigh Est.
Low Est.
609
173

Estimates of Mass/Ci of Isotopes in Spent Fuel for Range of Fuel Consumption(Assumptions primarily from F. von Hippel, personal communication)
Assumptions
Mass fraction Pu in PWR/BWR spent fuel1%
Mass fraction Pu in HWR spent fuel0.4%
Grams U-235 fissioned per MW th-day
1.0Power plant efficiency (TWhe/TWhth)
Curies Strontium-90 per gm U235 fissioned
Curies Cesium-137 per gm U235 fissioned
Grams Pu fissioned per gm Pu in spent fuelCuries Strontium-90 per gm Pu fissioned
Curies Cesium-137 per gm Pu fissioned
MW e-days/TWhe
MW th-days/TWheGrams U235 fissioned per TWhe
Curies Strontium-90 from U235 per TWhe
Curies Cesium-137 from U235 per TWheFor DRY CASK STORAGE OF SPENT FUEL:
Tonnes of Heavy Metal per Assembly
Assemblies per Cask
Tonnes of Heavy Metal Spent Fuel per Cask

33.3%
3.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
41,667125,125
125,125
3.75E+05
3.75E+05
0.46 Source 4
21 Source 4
9.7

For PWRs

Years
2000 - 2009

MW th-days/
Te Heavy
Metal
44,000Te Heavy
Metal per
MW th-day
2.27E-05

Te Heavy
Metal per
TWhe
2.84

kg Pu
Fissioned
per TWhe
28.4

Ci Str-90
from Pu
per TWhe
28,438

Ci Cs-137
from Pu
per TWhe
85,313

Total Ci
Total Ci
Str-90Cs-137
per TWheper TWhe
4.04E+05 4.61E+05

A1- 592kg Pu inSpent fuelper TWhe
28.4

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Lipschutz, R.D. (1980), Radioactive Waste: Politics, Technology, and Risk . Ballinger, Cambridge, MA, USA.
2 Reviews of Modern Physics , 1978;
3 The Nuclear Almanac (J. Dennis, Ed.)
4 Data from US Department of Energy (1994), Multi-purpose Canister Evaluation: A Systems Engineering
Approach . Report DOE/RW-0445, September, 1994. Multipurpose canister (interim storage, transport,
and final disposal) designed for PWR spent fuel.

Calculation of DPRK nuclear resource
4.5 million tonnes U ore
0.20% Average % U in ore
9,000 Implied total U in Ore
50000 MWth-days/te heavy metal, or
4% Enrichment (U235 in fuel)0.711% Fraction U235 in Natural U
6.91E+09 GJ Implied thermal U resource, or
633,501 GWHe, or
72.32 GW-yr electric

4320000 GJ/tHM

A1- 593

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Illustrative Estimate of Cost to the DPRK of Energy Used During 20102020 UPDATEESTIMATE OF THE COSTS TO THE DPRK OF ENERGY CONSUMEDDURING 2010
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

10/30/2012

Average Cost (2010
USD/GJ)
2010 EstimatedConsumption
Fuel Type/Energy Product(TJ)
Crude Oil
25,309
Imported Diesel
9,955
Imported Gasoline
3,649
Imported Heavy Fuel Oil
684
Imported Kerosene
1,741
Imported LPG/Other
430
Domestic Diesel less exports
4,581
Domestic Gasoline
5,813
Domestic Heavy Fuel Oil less exports
8,200
Domestic Kerosene
1,218
Domestic LPG/Other less exports
3,828
Imported Coal
13,432
Domestic Coal (less Exports)
370,033
Imported Electricity
1,053
Domestic Hydro Electricity
42,864
Domestic Thermal Electricity
12,372(less--value of thermal electricity fuelsin above)(64,786)
Domestic and Imported Fuelwood andBiomass
208,309
TOTAL VALUE OF 2010 ENERGY USEDHigh
Estimate
$
$
16.39
$
16.65
$
12.37
$
16.62
$
17.76
$
16.39
$
16.65
$
12.37
$
16.62
$
17.76
$
6.62
$
3.24
$
33.46
$
8.99
$
8.99

Low
Estimate$ 14.48$ 16.39$ 16.65$ 12.37$ 16.62$ 17.76$$$$$$ 6.62$ 3.24$ 33.46$$-

Estimated Total Cost
(2010 thousand USD)High
Estimate$$
163,139$
60,767$8,460$
28,932$
7,640$
75,066$
96,797$
101,439$
20,242$68,005$88,856$ 1,199,827$
35,229$385,426$
111,249$

4.47 $-$

1.62 $

0.81 $
337,720 $ 168,860$ 2,499,523 $ 2,128,120

A1- 594$

Low
Estimate$ 366,410$ 163,139$
60,767$8,460$
28,932
$
7,640
$
$
$
$
$
$
88,856$ 1,199,827$
35,229$$-(289,271) $-Notes/
Sources
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
4
3
2
2
2
7
5

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Sources/Notes:
1 Low estimate for crude oil cost based on 2010 unit costs of imports from China. High cost set at zero because
values of domestic refined products are evaluated individually; and including crude oil costs as well would double-countcrude oil value.
2 Low estimates assume the "cost" of domestic hydro and of domestic thermal power at zero, based on the factthat existing plants are old and fully amortized, and that running costs (beyond fuel costs) are minimal. Highestimates use as a placeholder the value per unit of electricity sold to China in 2010, as calculated
based on China Customs statistics data compiled by N. Aden. A summary of the average value ofelectricity imported to and exported from the DPRK in 2010 and 2011 is provided below.

Exports from the DPRK
Imports to the DPRK$$USD per kWh
2010
2011
0.032 $
0.034
0.120 $
0.117

3 Domestic coal is valued at its average export price to China, which in 2010 was$
84.11 per tonne, orabout$
3.24 per GJ, again based on China customs statistics.
4 Imported coal is valued at its average export price to China, which in 2010 was$
173.27 per tonne, orabout$
6.62 per GJ, again based on China customs statistics.
5 As placeholder estimates, wood and biomass is valued at
50% of the export value of coal, on a per-GJ
basis, or about$
1.62 per GJ as a "high" estimate, and
25% of the export
value of coal, or$
0.81 per GJ as a "low" estimate.
6 China customs statistics yield the following average cost for oil products imported into the DPRK in 2010:

HS Number
27101911
27101921
27101922
27101991
27101993
27101992

271011
2711

Product
Description
Aviation
Kerosene
Light Diesel Oil
Fuel Oils No. 5
Lubricating Oil
Basic Oils For[Lubrication]
Lubricating
GreaseLight Oils &Preparations(Not Crude)
Petroleum,
Other Gases

Cost pertonne

Cost per GJ

$

718

$

16.62

$
$
$

708
513
1,357

$
$
$

16.39
12.37
32.42

$

1,156

$

27.60

$

1,290

$

30.82

$

732

$

16.65 (almost all of these imports were gasoline)

$

753

$

17.76

Given that oil products have international mark ets, we assume these values are valid for both imported and domesticallyrefined oil products in the DPRK.
7 Values the fuels input to electricity generation at their import (or export, for coal) prices to avoid double-counting
for their value when estimating the value of electricity generated from thermal sources.

A1- 595

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Additional Summary Results Tables and Graphs
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE

ENERGY EFFICIENCY SCOPING STUDYDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)ADDITIONAL GRAPHS AND FIGURES
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

7/9/2020

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 1990 and 1996
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
1990
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
324,615
17,388
Cement68,1397,571
4,356
Fertilizers
23,994
4,573
18,891Other Chemicals
11,203
6,616
Pulp and Paper
4,026
4,026
932
Other Metals
23,7204,126
Other Minerals
12,600396
Textiles
29,385
2,497
Building Materials
61,980189
Non-specified Industry
124,600
3,650
1,600
14,850TOTAL
671,661
28,393
5,626
70,242

1996
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
124,977
6,694
29,981
3,331
1,917
6,515
1,129
5,130
3,697
2,183
1,329
1,329
308
7,828
1,362
832
3,326
131
9,697
824
20,4536245,230
869
581
5,391
250,538
8,655
1,909
24,001DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2000 and 2005
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2000
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
67,382
3,609
Cement19,096
7,024
1,503
Fertilizers
2,070
343
1,629
Other Chemicals
2,325
1,373
Pulp and Paper
836
836
194
Other Metals
4,924
857
Other Minerals
869
3,478
137
Textiles
6,100
518
Building Materials
21,38365
Non-specified Industry
24,689
882
317
2,942
TOTAL
149,673
11,726
1,153
12,828

2005
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
52,717
2,824
23,566
3,568
1,561
3,010
512
2,370
2,265
1,338
814
814
188
15,940
2,773
3,528
3,528
222
6,582
559
20,82564
21,128
1,032
271
2,780
150,376
8,640
1,085
14,679DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2008 and 2009
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2008
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
51,776
2,773
Cement30,144
3,168
1,917
Fertilizers
2,872
498
2,261
Other Chemicals
2,095
1,237
Pulp and Paper
753
753
174
Other Metals
16,177
2,814
Other Minerals
4,108
3,099
227
Textiles
6,465
549
Building Materials
20,45362
Non-specified Industry
20,257
584
260
3,224
TOTAL
155,101
7,349
1,013
15,2392009
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
69,936
3,746
43,952
1,585
2,620
1,903
330
1,498
1,848
1,092
664
664
154
15,916
2,769
4,816
2,114
218
5,495
467
20,45362
15,693
625
202
2,696
180,677
4,653
866
15,322A1- 596

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2010 and 2014
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2010
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
69,197
3,707
Cement43,0992,278
2,611
Fertilizers
1,950
338
1,535
Other Chemicals
1,725
1,019
Pulp and Paper
642
642
149
Other Metals
15,133
2,633
Other Minerals
4,423
2,381
214
Textiles5,172
439
Building Materials
19,09058
Non-specified Industry
15,090
691
194
2,839
TOTAL
175,522
5,688
836
15,2042014
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
66,0053,536
44,330
2,530
2,696
5,841
1,031
4,599
1,356
801
443
443
103
13,568
2,360
4,484
2,320
214
3,879
330
14,99946
10,965
516
141
2,569
165,869
6,398
584
17,252DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2015 and 2016
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2015
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
58,377
3,127
Cement43,254
3,761
2,705
Fertilizers
5,430
958
4,275
Other Chemicals
1,356
801
Pulp and Paper
443
443
103
Other Metals
13,5682,360
Other Minerals
4,280
2,524
214
Textiles
3,879
330
Building Materials
14,99946
Non-specified Industry
10,965
568
141
2,884
TOTAL
156,549
7,812
584
16,8442016
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
65,2383,494
44,481
4,228
2,802
6,156
1,096
4,846
1,356
801
443
443
103
13,444
2,339
4,230
2,511
212
3,879
330
14,99946
10,965
619
141
1,500
165,1908,454
584
16,472DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2017 and 2018
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2017
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
58,972
3,159
Cement45,605
1,930
2,735
Fertilizers
4,215
744
3,318
Other Chemicals
1,356
801
Pulp and Paper
443
443
103
Other Metals
12,785
2,224
Other Minerals
4,899
1,225
192
Textiles
3,556
302
Building Materials
14,31744
Non-specified Industry
11,650
331
150
1,388
TOTAL
157,796
4,229
592
14,2662018
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
55,184
2,956
42,164
2,186
2,552
2,359
416
1,857
1,356
801
443
443
103
12,785
2,224
4,899
1,225
192
3,556
302
15,681
48
16,447
333
211
1,960
154,873
4,161
654
12,995DPRK Industrial Energy Demand By Subsector: 2019 and 2020
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2019
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity
Iron and Steel
55,184
2,956
Cement42,1772,173
2,552
Fertilizers
2,359
416
1,857
Other Chemicals
1,356
801
Pulp and Paper
443
443
103
Other Metals
12,785
2,224
Other Minerals
4,899
1,225
192
Textiles
3,556
302
Building Materials
15,68148
Non-specified Industry
16,447
333
211
1,960
TOTAL
154,886
4,147
654
12,9952020
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
47,0692,521
32,188
2,986
2,024
1,179
208
928
986
582
354
354
82
9,654
1,679
3,810
953
150
2,586
220
10,90833
16,447
351
211
1,960
125,183
4,498
566
10,180A1- 597

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
1990
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

50,000100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
1996
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

20,00040,00060,00080,000100,000 120,000 140,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 598

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2000
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals

Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2005
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 599

50,00060,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2008
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2009
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 600

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2010
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2014
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 601

60,00070,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2015
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector:
2016
Non-specified Industry

Coal

Building Materials

Petr. Prod.

TextilesWood

Other Minerals

Electricity

Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 60260,00070,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector: 2017
Non-specified Industry

Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity

Building Materials
TextilesOther Minerals
Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector: 2018
Non-specified Industry

Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity

Building Materials
TextilesOther Minerals
Other Metals
Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 603

50,00060,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector: 2019Non-specified Industry

Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity

Building Materials
TextilesOther Minerals
Other Metals

Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000

Energy Demand (TJ)DPRK Industrial Energy Demand by Subsector: 2020
Non-specified Industry

Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity

Building Materials
TextilesOther Minerals
Other Metals

Pulp and Paper
Other Chemicals
Fertilizers
CementIron and Steel-

10,00020,00030,000

Energy Demand (TJ)

A1- 604

40,00050,000Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2000
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 1990
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

3%

Other Minerals
44%

Fertilizers
16%

Other Minerals
30%

Non-specified
Industry13%

Non-specified
Industry
7%

Cement27%

Cement60%

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2005
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 1996
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

Fertilizers
6%
Fertilizers
13%

Other Minerals
41%
Other Minerals
38%

Cement41%

Cement39%

Non-specified
Industry12%Non-specified
Industry10%

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2010
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2008
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers
7%

6%

Other Minerals
42%

Other Minerals
42%

Cement40%

Cement43%
Non-specified
Industry8%Non-specified
Industry
12%

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2009
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2014
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

Fertilizers
7%

Other Minerals
46%

Fertilizers
16%
Other Minerals
36%

Cement40%

Cement34%
Non-specified
Industry13%

Non-specified
Industry8%

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2015
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2017
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

Fertilizers
12%
Fertilizers
17%
Other Minerals
33%

Other Minerals
29%

Cement48%

Cement46%

Non-specified
Industry8%Non-specified
Industry
7%

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2016
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2018
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers
10%

Fertilizers
13%

Cement50%

Other Minerals
29%

Other Minerals
30%

Cement53%
Non-specified
Industry7%

A1- 607

Non-specified
Industry8%Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2019
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers
10%

Other Minerals
30%

Non-specified
Industry
8%
Cement52%

DPRK Industrial Energy Demand: 2020
Petroleum Products Use Fractions by
Subsector
Fertilizers
5%

Cement66%
Other Minerals
21%

Non-specified
Industry8%

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 622

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Transport Energy Demand By Subsector: 1990, 1996, 2000, annd 2005
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
1990
1996
Subsector
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod. Wood Electricity Petr. Prod.
Road
32,571
1,672
14,528
884
6,548
Rail
1,949
10,870
779
4,815
585
Water
1,253
501
476
Air
1,123
899
786
Non-Specified
1,000
600
-

2000
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod.
504
8,958
3,237
935
526
797
-

2005
Wood
Electricity
816
3,532
-

DPRK Transport Energy Demand By Subsector: 2008 through 2010 and 2014
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2008
2009
Subsector
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod. Wood Electricity Petr. Prod.
Road
10,384
843
7,871
641
8,720
Rail
604
4,185
448
3,913
526
Water
414
351
376
Air
873
793
863
Non-Specified
-

2010
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod.
712
0
8,610
3,913
525
338
846
-

2014
Wood
Electricity
794
4
3,442
-

DPRK Transport Energy Demand By Subsector: 2015 through 2018
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2015
Subsector
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod.
Road
8,755
812
6
9,115
Rail
535
4,196
554
Water
351
363
Air
932
988
Non-Specified-

2016
Wood Electricity Petr. Prod.
881
17
8,317
4,358
516
338
873
-

2017
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod.
836
41
7,984
3,767
491
320
873
-

2018
Wood
Electricity
792
50
3,606
-

DPRK Transport Energy Demand By Subsector: 2019 through 2020
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
2019
Subsector
Petr. Prod.
Wood
Electricity Petr. Prod.
Road
7,988
785
55
6,111
Rail
496
3,606
374
Water
320
200
Air
858
547
Non-Specified-

2020
Wood Electricity
582
57
3,606
-

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 632

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Transport Petroleum
Demand by Subsector: 2009
NonSpecified
0%
Air
8%

Road
83%

Water
4%

Rail
5%

A1- 633

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 634

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 635

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 636

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 637

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Military Energy Demand By Subsector: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
1990
1996
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod. Electricity
Coal
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
Coal
Trucks and other Transport
6,585
5,734
Armaments
263
211
Air Force
2,648
1,886
Naval Forces
6,937
5,261
Military Manufacturing
890
48
623
33
401
Buildings and Other
28,938100
13,96024,742
5,498
95
7,678
20,908

2000
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
21
7,379
85
7,399

2005
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
21
7,871
85
8,725

Coal
401
18,014

2008
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
21
7,379
82
9,074

Coal
401
18,014

2009
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
21
7,379
78
8,121

401
18,014
18,4152010
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
21
7,379
76
7,678
7,379
10,018
7,699

Coal
427
18,717
19,144

2014
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
23
7,130
78
8,097
7,130
9,522
8,120

Coal
436
19,186
19,622

2015
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
23
6,771
79
8,376
6,771
10,310
8,399

Coal
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
97.8%
100.0%

2010
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
0.0%
31.8%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
21.0%
0.0%
0.0%
45.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.8%
99.7%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

Subsector
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other

Coal

Subsector
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other
Total

Coal

Subsector
Trucks and other Transport
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other
Total

401
19,215

A1- 638

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Subsector
Armaments
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other
Total
Total

Subsector
Air Force
Naval Forces
Military Manufacturing
Buildings and Other
Total
Total
Total

Coal
445
19,66020,106

Coal
445
20,407
20,852

2016
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
24
6,401
80
8,585
6,401
10,8058,609

2019
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
24
6,644
76
8,795
6,644
9,272
8,819

Coal
445
19,90920,355

2017
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
24
6,482
80
8,655
6,482
9,391
8,679

Coal
223
17,08517,3082020
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
12
6,644
65
7,564
6,644
5,731
7,575

A1- 639

Coal
445
20,407
20,852

2018
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
24
6,644
76
8,795
6,644
9,078
8,819

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

A1- 640

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

2015 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by Fuel2010 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by FuelElectricity
18%

Electricity
19%

Coal
42%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Wood
17%

Wood
15%

2016 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by Fuel2014 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by FuelElectricity
19%Electricity
18%

Coal
44%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Coal
43%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Coal
44%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Wood
16%

Wood
14%

A1- 647

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
2017 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by Fuel2019 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by FuelElectricity
19%Electricity
19%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Coal
45%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Coal
46%

Wood
15%

Wood
15%

2018 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by Fuel2020 DPRK Military Sector
Energy Demand by FuelElectricity
19%

Petroleum
Products
22%Electricity
20%

Petroleum
Products
22%

Coal
46%

Coal
47%

Wood
18%

Wood
15%

A1- 648

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY
TYPE: 1990
WOOD/
BIOMASS
9%

HYDRO
11%
REFINED
PROD
1%

COAL & COKE78%

CRUDE OIL
6%

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 1990
INDUSTRIAL
58%

NON-ENERGY
2%
NON-SPECIFIED
0%
PUBLIC/COMML
4%MILITARY
5%
FISHERIES0%RESIDENTIAL
22%

AGRICULTURAL
5%

TRANSPORT
4%

A1- 649

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 1990
NON-ENERGY

31
6

PUBLIC/COMML

48
60

FISHERIES

562

RESIDENTIAL

302
51

INDUSTRIAL

776

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

PJ ENERGY DEMAND

ESTIMATED DPRK FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
BY FUEL: 1990
REF. PROD
8%WOOD/
BIOMASS
11%
CHARCOAL
0%
COAL &COKE
71%

A1- 650

ELEC.
9%

HEAT
1%

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

Estimated DPRK COAL DEMAND BY
SECTOR: 1990
TRANSPORT0%RESIDENTIAL
20%

AGRICULT.
1%

INDUSTRIAL
71%

MILITARY
3%
PUBLIC/COMM
4%
NON-ENERGY
2%

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 1990
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
1,301
78
Imports
68
111
27
Exports
(44)
-

Wood
150
12
(0)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 1996
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
683
19
Imports
12
40
39
Exports
(12)
(1)
-

Wood
148
14
(4)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2000
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
336
038
Imports
12
17
42
Exports
(9)
(3)
-

Wood
151
12
(3)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2005
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
434
044Imports
36
22
23
Exports
(80)
(0)
-

Wood
182
7
(2)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2008
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production427
043
Imports
19
23
30
Exports
(67)
(4)
-

Wood
200
6
(1)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2009
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
484
043
Imports
7
22
14
Exports
(94)
(0)
-

Wood
202
5
(1)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2010
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production492
043
Imports
13
25
16
Exports
(122)
(2)
-

Wood
205
4
(1)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2014
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
851
039
Imports
8
25
22
Exports
(402)
(1)
-

Wood
205
5
(2)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2015
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
950
040
Imports
30
27
25
Exports
(516)
(0)
-

Wood
202
5
(2)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2016
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
1,020
0
42
Imports
41
28
30
Exports
(584)
(0)
-

Wood
194
4
(2)

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2017
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
567
038
Imports
29
27
17
Exports
(137)
(0)
-

Wood
169
4
(1)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2018
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
531
039
Imports
030
13Exports
(82)
(0)
-

Wood
161
4
(0)

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2019
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
619
038
Imports
030
14Exports
(163)
(0)
-

Wood
161
4
-

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel and Source: 2020
Units:Petajoules (PJ)
SourceCoal
Crude Oil Ref. Prod. Hydro
Domestic Production
461
039
Imports032
7Exports
(82)
-

Wood
162
2
-

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel Category: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Petajoules (PJ)
SECTOR
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2014
Coal
1,326
682
339
391
379
397
383
457
Crude Oil
111
40
17
23
23
22
25
25
Refined Products
27
39
39
23
26
13
15
21
Hydro/Nuclear
78
19
38
44
43
43
43
39
Wood/Biomass
162
158
160
187
204
205
208
208
TOTAL
1,703
938
593
668
674
681
675
750

DPRK Energy Supply By Fuel Category: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Petajoules (PJ)
SECTOR
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Coal
463
477
460
449
457
379
Crude Oil
28
28
28
31
31
32
Refined Products
25
30
17
13
14
7
Hydro/Nuclear
40
42
38
39
38
39
Wood/Biomass
204
197
172
165
165
164
TOTAL
761
774
714
697
705
620

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DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 1990 and 1996
1990
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Electricity
Heat
Charcoal
Wood
Ref. Prod.
Coal
Source
7,420
6,134
1,814
6,256
129,155
Urban
3,298
1,159
86,140344
60,119Rural

Ref. Prod.
Coal
1,649
92,747136
28,988

1996
Wood Charcoal
1,455
15,135919
102,471

Electricity
Heat
4,685
3,669
1,674
-

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2000 and 2005
2000
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Electricity
Heat
Charcoal
Wood
Ref. Prod.
Coal
Source
2,421
1,826
1,117
19,021
1,924
73,246
Urban
435
701
102,580
156
21,808Rural

Ref. Prod.
Coal
2,016
67,806
153
17,0792005
Wood Charcoal
1,132
24,739704
109,810

Electricity
Heat
3,403
2,442
488
-

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2008 and 20092008
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Electricity
Heat
Charcoal
Wood
Ref. Prod.
Coal
Source
4,050
2,818
1,089
34,093
1,916
61,212
Urban
625
673
119,228
184
13,090Rural

Ref. Prod.
Coal
1,549
62,349142
13,292

2009
Wood Charcoal
1,108
34,685683
121,072

Electricity
Heat
3,524
2,427
518
-

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2010
Units:Terajoules (TJ)2010
SourceUrban
RuralRef. Prod.
Coal
1,894
63,513
177
13,499Charcoal
Wood
1,127
35,291
694
122,957

Electricity
Heat
3,366
2,294
483
-

A1- 684

Im plied
2010
Electricity
use perHousehold
(kWh)

252
56

Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2014 and 2015
Units:Terajoules (TJ)2014
SourceCoal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Charcoal
Heat
Electricity
Urban
73,032
2,004
34,289
1,234
1,852
2,839
Rural
17,583
183
121,521
754
326

Coal
Ref. Prod.
78,3282,528
20,289224

2015
Wood Charcoal
32,981
1,282
118,141
782

Heat
Electricity
1,943
3,012
331

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2016 and 2017
Units:Terajoules (TJ)2016
SourceCoal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Charcoal
Heat
Electricity
Urban
83,8802,728
31,668
1,331
2,023
3,172
Rural
23,213
266
114,754
810
336

Coal
Ref. Prod.
95,433
2,748
30,289275

2017
Wood Charcoal
25,401
1,325
97,706805

Heat
Electricity
2,025
3,212
341

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2018 and 2019
Units:Terajoules (TJ)2018
SourceCoal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Charcoal
Heat
Electricity
Urban
103,341
3,060
23,242
1,346
2,169
3,481
Rural
33,442311
94,072
817
356

Coal
Ref. Prod.
105,137
2,998
33,924301

2019
Wood Charcoal
23,621
1,368
95,427828

Heat
Electricity
2,037
3,308
351

DPRK Residential Sector Energy Demand By Fuel and Subsector: 2020
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
2020
SourceCoal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Charcoal
Heat
Electricity
Urban
106,977
3,127
24,009
1,390
3,528
5,796
Rural
34,417310
96,814840
610

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DPRK Energy Demand By Sector: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014 through 2020
Units: Petajoules (PJ)
SECTOR
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
Industrial
776
285
175
175
179
202
197
Transport
51
22
12
16
17
14
15
Residential
302
254
225
230
239
241
245
Agricultural
62
20
19
34
32
31
31
Fisheries
5
2
1
2
1
1
2
Military
60
52
47
47
45
43
44
Public/Commercial
48
37
23
28
29
28
28
Nonspecified/Other
6
Nonenergy
31
12
11
8
8
8
8
TOTAL
1,342
684
515
539
550
568
570

2014
190
15
256
34
2
44
30
10
580

2015
182
16
260
35
1
45
31
10
580

2016
191
16
264
32
2
46
33
10
593

2017
177
15
260
29
2
45
34
10
571

2018
173
14
266
27
1
45
36
8
571

2019
173
14
269
24
1
46
37
8
572

2020
140
11
278
23
1
37
26
7
525

DPRK Energy Demand By Fuel Category: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 through 2010 and 2014 through 2017
Units: Petajoules (PJ)
SECTOR
1990
1996
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2014
Coal and Coke
948
431
286
279
272
298
294
304
Refined Products
109
44
39
36
34
28
31
32
Wood/Biomass
152
150
154
181
198
199
202
202
Charcoal
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Heat
9
5
3
4
4
4
4
3
Electricity
120
51
31
38
40
37
37
37
TOTAL
1,342
684
515
539
550
568
570
580

2015
304
35
198
2
3
38
580

2016
322
37
190
2
3
39
593

2017
334
31
165
2
3
36
571

2018
343
30
158
2
3
35
571

2019
345
30
157
2
3
35
572

2020
306
24
156
2
4
32
525

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DPRK Public/Commercial Sector Energy Demand By Fuel 1990 through 2018
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Fuel Category
Year
Coal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Charcoal
Heat
Electricity
1990
32,646
98
1,632
2,644
10,932
1996
26,180
131
2,618
1,612
6,387
2000
15,629
78
3,126
820
3,258
2005
16,506
165
4,952
1,396
5,150
2008
16,850
239
5,055
1,395
5,235
2009
16,944
330
5,083
1,281
4,705
2010
17,037
417
5,111
1,224
4,469
2014
19,322
491
5,024
1,119
3,975
2015
20,297
710
5,074
1,186
4,143
2016
21,312
746
5,115
1,254
4,300
2017
22,825
872
5,250
1,266
4,281
2018
24,122
965
5,307
1,300
4,355
2019
24,515
981
5,393
1,321
4,387
2020
17,682
707
3,890
953
3,161

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DPRK Agricuture and Fisheries Energy Demand By Subsector: 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2008 - 2010, and 2014 - 2020
Units: Terajoules (TJ)
1990
1996
Subsector
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
Agriculture--Field Operations
2,619
907
690
717
Agriculture--Processing/Other
9,750
2,386
44,950
1,664
3,183
629
14,674543
Fisheries--Large Ships
2,681
804
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other
1,132
456
524
509
193
236

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2000
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
507
526
2,827
461
14,663
452
668
423
161
196

2005
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
609
508
5,282
555
25,784
902
751
453
173
210

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2008
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
517
392
5,094
491
24,864
870
724
419
160
194

Coal
4,839
396

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2010
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
539
374
4,907
491
23,955
838
724
430
165
183

2014
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
515
357
5,410
469
26,410
869
1,048
430
174
173

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2015
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
546
357
5,581
497
27,243
897
717
340
134
157

2016
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
579
359
5,004
527
24,428
804
1,282
430
181
199

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2017
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
464
338
4,574
423
22,330
735
1,232
408
172
210

2018
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
396
312
4,370
361
21,331
702
910
285
122
147

Subsector
Agriculture--Field Operations
Agriculture--Processing/Other
Fisheries--Large Ships
Fisheries--Collectives/Processing/Other

2019
Coal
Petr. Prod.
Wood Electricity
396
312
3,826
353
18,678
615
910
285
122
147

2020
Coal Petr. Prod. Wood
Electricity
396
312
3,629
344
17,713
583
819
257
110
132

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2009
Wood Petr. Prod. Electricity
518
359
23,623
432
826
670
150
178

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DPRK Military Sector Energy Demand By Fuel 1990 through 2018
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Fuel Category
Year
Coal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Electricity
1990
29,828
16,53314,008
1996
25,365
13,186
5,498
7,711
2000
21,308
11,094
7,379
7,420
2005
19,615
11,253
7,871
8,746
2008
18,415
9,830
7,379
9,095
2009
18,415
8,856
7,379
8,142
2010
18,415
10,018
7,379
7,699
2014
19,144
9,522
7,130
8,120
2015
19,622
10,310
6,771
8,399
2016
20,106
10,805
6,401
8,609
2017
20,355
9,391
6,482
8,679
2018
20,852
9,078
6,644
8,819
2019
20,852
9,272
6,644
8,819
2020
17,308
5,731
6,644
7,575

TOTAL
60,36951,761
47,20247,48644,72042,791
43,512
43,91645,10345,92144,90745,39345,587
37,258DPRK Military Sector Fraction of National Energy Demand By Fuel 1990 through 2018
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Fuel Category
Year
Coal
Ref. Prod.
Wood
Electricity TOTAL
1990
3.1%
15.1%
0.0%
11.6%
4.5%
1996
5.9%
29.9%
3.7%
15.2%
7.6%
2000
7.5%
28.2%
4.8%
24.1%
9.2%
2005
7.0%
31.1%
4.3%
23.3%
8.8%
2008
6.8%
28.7%
3.7%
22.8%
8.1%
2009
6.2%
32.2%
3.7%
21.7%
7.5%
2010
6.3%
31.8%
3.6%
21.1%
7.6%
2014
6.3%
30.0%
3.5%
21.7%
7.6%
2015
6.5%
29.7%
3.4%
21.9%
7.8%
2016
6.2%
29.1%
3.4%
22.3%
7.7%
2017
6.1%
30.2%
3.9%
24.2%
7.9%
2018
6.1%
30.1%
4.2%
25.3%
7.9%
2019
6.0%
30.7%
4.2%
25.5%
8.0%
2020
5.7%
23.7%
4.3%
23.7%
7.1%

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DPRK Military Sector Energy Demand By Subsector, 1990 through 2018
Units:Terajoules (TJ)
Subsector
Trucks andMilitaryotherArmamenNaval
Manufact Buildings
Transportts
Air Force Forces
uring
and Other
Year
1990
6,585
263
2,648
6,937
938
42,998
1996
5,734
211
1,886
5,261
657
38,013
2000
4,064
148
1,367
5,430
422
35,771
2005
3,524
129
2,002
5,513
422
35,896
2008
3,186
101
2,234
4,227
422
34,549
2009
2,984
101
1,792
3,901
422
33,592
2010
3,186
103
2,100
4,553
422
33,147
2014
3,527
96
1,899
3,923
450
34,022
2015
3,874
102
2,310
3,944
460
34,412
2016
3,999
111
2,567
4,049
469
34,727
2017
4,035
85
2,119
3,072
469
35,127
2018
4,035
85
2,015
2,867
469
35,922
2019
4,035
85
2,209
2,867
469
35,922
2020
2,409
47
1,653
1,556
235
31,358

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TOTAL
60,36951,761
47,20247,48644,72042,791
43,512
43,91645,10345,92144,90745,39345,587
37,258Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

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Estimate of Costs to Refurbish DPRK Transmission and Distribution System

NAUTILUS INSTITUTE
ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCESDEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK)
Rough Estimate of Cost to Refurbish DPRK Electricity System
Prepared By David Von Hippel
Date Last Modified:

2/22/2005

Note: This analysis has not been updated using up-to-date (2020) costs, and in fact it is likelythat at this point (2020) refurbishment of the DPRK electricity system would not take the(formerly) conventional approach of simply replacing the main grid, that is, rather, the grid
would likely be reconstituted as an assembly of mini-grids connected with modern
communications, grid status measurement, and "smart grid" elements. This estimate is thus
shown as an illustration, with the original costs in circa 2005 dollars also presented in 2019
dollars.
Assumptions:
1 cm on map is
44 km (estimated based on scale comparison with DPRK map of known scale)
1 est. km is
1.3 actual ground km (rough estimate)
Assumed Costs to Build New Transmission Lines as shown are USD/km, no ROW costs, andinclude a factor of
1.3 to inflate 1995 dollars to 2005 (estimated based on 1995 and 2005 CPI), anda factor of
0.7 to adjust US costs to probable DPRK costs (rough estimate).
Assumed Substation Refurbishment Cost, USD/peak kW served$30 (See Note 3)
Assumed Peak MW to be served by substations and the distribution system.
12000(Based roughly on 1990 loads, plus ~15-20% reserve margin to account for non-coincident loads).
Assumed Distrubution System Refurbishment Cost, USD/peak kW served$200 (See Note 4)
Inflator, 2005 to 2019 US dollars:

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ESTIMATE OF COSTS BY COMPONENTTransmission and Distribution Refurbishment Costs
AssumedCosts of
Implied Costs
New Trans ofLength on
Lines
Refurbishing
Map (cm)
Implied(USD/km) Systems
Voltage(Note 1)km
(Note 2)
(million USD)
220 kV33
1,888 $ 227,500 $429
154 kV6343 $ 182,000 $62
110 kV
22
1,258 $ 136,500 $
172
66 kV
37
2,116 $ 72,800 $154
Total Transmission Lines
5,606 km$
818
Substation Costs$
360
Distribution Costs$
2,400
Total of Above:$
3,578
Generation System Refurbishment Cost Estimates
Total MW
Implied Costs ofRefurbishment Costs, (See Note
Refurbishing Systems
USD/kW5)(million USD)
Type of Plant
Low Est. High Est.
Low Est.
High Est.
Hydro
150
300
4500 $
675 $ 1,350 (See Note 6)
Thermal
350
700
3600 $
1,260 $ 2,520 (See Note 7)
TOTAL
8100 $
1,935 $ 3,870

OVERALL TOTAL WITH T&D
OVERALL TOTAL WITH T&D$$

Low Est.
5,513
7,260

High Est.
$ 7,448 2005 USD$ 9,808 2019 USD

Notes and Sources
Note 1 : DPRK Grid Map measured was provided by confidential ROK source to Nautilus in ~1998.
Note 2 : Very approximate power line costs derived from table below, as found at
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/pubs_html/feat_trans_capacity/table2.html

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Table FE2. Typical Costs and Capacity of New Transmission Lines (1995 Dollars)

Voltage

60 kV
60 kV
60 kV
115 kV
115 kV
115 kV
115 kV

115 kV
115 kV

115 kV230 kV230 kV230 kV230 kV230 kV230 kV

115 kV230 kV

Type ofSupporting
Tower andNumber of
CircuitsSize ofPower
Line

NormalRatingMW

Cost perCircuitper Mile a

Above Groundwood pole,
single
4/0 AWG
32 $120,000
wood pole,
397.5
singlekcmil
56 $125,000
wood pole,
715.5
singlekcmil
79 $130,000
wood pole,
single
4/0 AWG
64 $130,000
wood pole,
397.5
singlekcmil
108 $135,000
wood pole,
715.5
singlekcmil
151 $140,000
steel pole,
715.5
singlekcmil
151 $250,000
715.5
steel pole,kcmil,
singlebundled302 $400,000
steel pole,
715.5
doublekcmil
151 $160,000
715.5
steel pole,kcmil,
doublebundled302 $250,000
steel pole,
1,113
singlekcmil
398 $360,000
1,113
steel pole,kcmil,
singlebundled796 $530,000
2,300
steel pole,kcmil,
singlebundled
1,060 $840,000
steel pole,
1,113
doublekcmil
398 $230,000
1,113
steel pole,kcmil,
doublebundled796 $350,000
2,300
steel pole,kcmil,
doublebundled
1,060 $550,000
Undergroundunderground cable200 MVA
180 $3,300,000
underground cable400 MVA
360 $3,700,000aThese costs do not include right-of-way costs.
AWG = American wire gauge.
kcmil = One kcmil is 1,000 circular mils, a measure of wire crossarea.
kV = Kilovolts.
MVA = Megavolt amperes.
MW = Megawatts.
Source: CSA Energy Consultants, "Existing Electric Transmission
and Distribution Upgrade Possibilities, "(Arlington, VA, July 18, 1995),
p. 9.

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Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21
Note 3 : Substation costs of $23/kW served for rural ~69kV substation, $33/kW for suburban ~138 kV substation, fromhttp://www.pserc.wisc.edu/ecow/get/publicatio/2002public/krishfop2002pserc.pdf
Note 4 : D. Von Hippel, work ing with Syrian colleagues, estimated a cost of distribution additions of about $275 per k W ofpeak distribution power addressed for additions in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In Egypt, for a municipal utility, anestimate for future additions of about $70 per k W of peak distribution power was used. An audit of distribution costs atseveral indian Utilities (http://www.tni.org/reports/energy/performance.pdf) showed a range of about
0.54 to1.04 Rupee per k Wh, or about USD
0.012 to0.024
per k Wh, at a rate of return of about
20% . This suggests an investment
cost of about USD
0.062 to0.119 per k Wh/yr distributed, which, assuming an averageload factor of
70% or6132 (k Wh/yr)/k W, yields a per-k W charge of
379 to730 USD/k W peak power distributed, which sounds too high, but may in fact be not out-of-the-question, when
operating costs are included.

Note 5 : Generation capacities are the sum of our total estimates for 1990, plus additions between 1990 and 2000. For Hydro,
this includes both larger and (purported) smaller hydro (about 2/3 large, identified plants). For thermal plants (all but 200 MW
coal-fired), this includes mostly identified larger units.
Note 6 : A report on a hydro refurbishing projectin in Macedonia, work ing on power plants that are 40-50 years old andprobably somewhat smaller, on average (unit size) than the larger hydro stations in the DPRK, reports a contractof about $110/k W for a combination of energy efficiency, control, and other measures. It is not clear whether thisincludes replacing generators, though it may include some work on them.
http://www.emersonprocess.com/home/library/articles/macedonia/macedonia_pwr-eng-intl-0203.pdf
The range estimate provided assumes that most of the work needed will be on the turbine and electrical side, and that
any impoundment work s will either be fairly minimal or done very inexpensively (low labor costs).
Note 7 : Very rough estimates spanning the range from the costs of a gas-fired combustion turbine with minimal site costs(mostly equipment costs), to nearly-full costs for a Chinese-style coal plant including emissions control.
These would not include costs for off-site fuel supply infrastructure.

A1- 712Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 4/26/21

DPRK Industrial Energy Intensity Estimates as of 1990
ENERGY INTENSITY ESTIMATES USED IN ESTIMATES
OF FUEL USE IN THE DPRK INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, 1990

Industrial Subsector
Iron and Steel
Cement---Fraction of input fuel as coalFertilizers--Ammonium

Output Unitste crude steel
te clinker
te NH3---Additional Heavy Oil andNaptha used as Feedstock
Fertilizers--Superphosphatete P2O5
Other Chemicals--Carbide
te Ca Carbide
Other Chemicals--Caustic Soda te
Pulp and Paper**te pulp
Other Metals--Zincte
Other Metals--Copperte
Other Metals--AluminumteOther Metals--LeadteOther Minerals***
te Magnesia
Building Materials--Glass
50 kg case
Building Materials--Bricks
10,000 pieces
Textiles--Printing and Dyeing
running meter
Textiles--Vinalon fiberteFuel UseIntensity(tce/Unit)*
1.85
0.235
90%
1.71
0.55
9.71
0.82
0.96
0.89
2.72
1.88
2.11
2.96
0.43
0.03392.39
4.39E-04
6.032

Electricity
Use Intensity(kWh/Unit)*
805
110
5,760

16,258
4,571
2,413
1,674
4,228
1,364
17,655
203
110
34

5,400

* Intensities shown are adjusted upward to take into account 10 and 15 percent "intensity
inflators" used when applying energy intensities from Chinese and Russian data
(respectively) to DPRK Industrial sub-sectors. Fuel is coal except as noted.
** Assumes that half of non-electric fuel use for paper production is provided bymill wastes and other wood by-products (but fuel use intensity shown includes
both use of wood and coal).
*** Intensity shown for magnesite production is use of heavy fuel oil (not coal) per tonneof product.
Please see "Industry" section of Attachment 1 for detailed notes and data sources.

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