Workshop Japan and the Netherlands
Climate Adaptation and Resilience
31 October 2019
Embassy of Kingdom of the Netherland

From Science to Project Risk Management- Resilience of Infrastructure Investment –Takashi Hongo
Senior Fellow
Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies InstituteNew movement - Demand for climate risk impact analysis
 Increase of weather related disaster events provides damage on business Pressure for the further disclosure of climate related risk by finance sector. e.g. TCFD

TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures)
 RiskTransition risk : mitigation
Physical Risk :adaptation
 Requirements
Disclosure of risk, impacts andcountermeasures

Flow of Action Consideration
ScreeningSensitive?

Monitoring

Detail study

post disasterrecovery plan

Take additionalmeasures?

Physical and/or
Economicmeasures

Monitoring

MonitoringPossible Impacts on Business
ChronicAcute

Temperature

Water

Wind/Typhoon

Energy andresource
development

・Workingenvironment

・Waterscarcity(mining/washing )・Decrease ofoperation rateof port

Power supply

・Change ofpower
generation(Solar power)

・Water scarcity- cooling water
for thermalpower- hydropower

・Powergeneration(Wind power)
・Decrease ofoperation rateof port

Transportation

Temperature

WaterWind/Typhoon

・Workingenvironment

・Flood（mine site,transportation andsupply chain ）・Damage on
facility andoperation rate
・Port operation

・Transmission
line・Flood（powerhouse, pipeline etc）
・Water scarcity- cooling water forthermal power- hydropower

・Damage bystrong wind on
power house,wind turbine
transmission
・Salt damage

・Coastal water・Healthcondition

・Flood・Coastal erosion

・Damage bystrong wind・Cancel ofoperation

Urban
infrastructure

・Livingenvironment
・Infection

・Scarcity ofmunicipal water・healthcondition・Flood・Urban water
scarcity・Coastal erosion

・Damage bystrong wind

Manufacturing

・Working
environment

・Scarcity ofindustrial water・Working
environment

・・Flood（factory,transportation andsupply chain）

・Damage bystrong wind

Agriculture/Fis
hing

・Change of
agricultural
products

・ Agricultural
water scarcity
・Frequency offlood
・Acidification

・Decrease ofproduction

・Flood, draught

・Damage on
agricultural
products andequipment

Forestation

・Change oftypes of trees

・Shortprecipitation

・Wild fire・Flood, draught

・Fallen trees

・fallen tress

Impacts written in red is emerged by extreme weather. Boarder between extreme weather and climate change is unclear.

Climate change impact on project design Project design is determined considering past year’s weather and counter measure for its
operation is prepared as BCP.
 Change of climate should be reflected on the assumption of design, operation and BCP.
Information about magnitude and probability of weather change is needed.
Assumption / present condition
・Put 20 % margin on the average of past 20 years daily precipitation
・Prepare for the flood one time for 100 years, etc.

Climate change：
・Precipitation pattern will be changed
・One time for 100 years flood may be occurred in every 20 years.
etc.

New assumption
Assumption

Present assumption

 Project is designed with proper margin for past day’s event and risk management (BCP) is prepared. Investment period
vary project to project and many of projects are finished before emerging climate change impact obviously.
 Additional measure will be taken considering over all risk for the project.

Risk = Impact on operation/business X Probability
 When risk is low and economic impacts is manageable, “no additional measures” can be reasonable decision.

Actions for climate impact risk on infrastructure- Business Continuity Plan  Risk management – asset
 Evacuation plan; ‘safety first’ Physical measures; higher specification infrastructure. balance of cost andrisk reduction. 100% hedging is not possible.
 Economic measures; insurance, reserves etc.
 Post disaster recovery plan
 Relocation or multiple investment for risk diversification

 Risk management – supply chain
 Review of supply chain risk; less information about supply chain seems tobe a bottle neck.
 Redundancy; longer allowance of delivery time, more stocks
 Risk diversification; multiple supply source, multiple logistics

Expected information service by DIAS/d4PDF
Overview of climate change impact –World Map（地域拡大図）
Regionmap

Change of monthly averaga
PresnetSource: d4PDF
Upper=average, middle=summer, low=winterLeft=present, middle=4℃ scenario, right=change●Types of information which is needed Overview of climate change; wind, precipitation and temperature
 Regional maps for screening and specific area for detail analysis
 Monthly data, daily data etc.
 Probability and distribution

2℃ scenario

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Distribution of daily precipitation

Impacts on flooding by typhoon under climate change
 Simulation of impacts on flooding and high tide by typhoon in the coastal area
 Pilot study; Ariake Bay, Saga Prefecture in Japan (SI CAT)
Coastal are at Ariake Bay Flood risk is mitigated by multiple dams operation.
 Coastal area is surrounded by dike and river watershall be pumped up to Ariake Bay

 Red circle; dams
 Blue line; river

What next ?
• Optimization of dam’soperation.
• Optimization andcapacity increase ofpumps

Urban Flood Simulation System Simulation of overflow of sewage network by heavy rain Pilot project; Tokyo 23 cities
 To be public use through DIAS
 Yellow; sewage network
 Blue; river Red dots line; underground river Red dot; pump station
Accuracy test

Blue; simulation, Red; measured

What next (options)?
• Real time monitoring and alert system• Reflection on hazard map• Improvement of infrastructurePacific Islands High Tide impact model Simulation of high tide by cyclone under climate change Pilot study; Fiji, Vanuatu, and Samoa
Suva of Fiji

 Red area; high tide (inundation) area Blue (red) circle; higher risk ofinundation.
⇒ it is planed to developed as
residential area for low income
household but possibly reconsidered(additional measures).

Model Combination of climate model, cyclone model andinundation model Inundation model was applied to Hurricane Haiyan in
Philippine for testing its accuracy

What next ?
• Adaptation plan/Revision of city planningDigital information service for resilient infrastructure(Future of DIAS – a conceptual model)
Integrated/ d4PDF
analyzed
data
Data &Info.

Scientificdata

Social &Economic
data

Other
Platform

Data & Info.

 Archive data
 Data science Neutrality and public service
 Human network

Including past events
 real time human behavior

Application& analysis
service

ServiceResilientinfra.

For Design
 Real time monitoring andemergency actions
 Post disaster recovery

DIAS will be the next phase after 2021. Its role and structure isunder consideration. This is just an idea for its future service‘Quality Infrastructure Investment Program’
Resilience should be an indispensable element of ‘Quality Infrastructure’ To achieve inclusive, sustainable, and resilient “quality growth”
 Bridging the infrastructure gap as a bottleneck against global economic growth.

<Elements of Quality Infra><Case of Quality Infra>

Elements of quality infra.

Category

country

Project/technology

finance

Effective mobilization offinance (e.g. PPP)

Transport

Thailand

Mass Transit (Purple line)

ODA Loan

Cambodia

Traffic management

ODA
Grant

UzbekistaniGas fired power

ODA Loan

MoroccoHigh efficient Coal power

JBIC/NEXI

Economic Efficiency (life cycle)

Lao

Hydro PowerJBIC/NEXI

Inclusiveness

India

Pump up Hydro

ODA Loan

Safety and resilient

VietnamRefinery

JBIC/NEXI-High Speed Train(Shinkansen)--

Airport management/Portmanagement-High voltage transmission line-

Earth Observation system/
Weather Radar

Socio economic development
and development strategy

EnergyHigh quality standard

Sustainable

Convenience and amenities
Contribution to local economy

Source : Japanese government

Technology-

Conclusion Infrastructure under climate change Science data and digital innovation
 Combination of Science, Policy and Investment

Science
But,Science for whom?
Policy for whom?
Investment for whom?

PolicyInvestment