第一工業大学研究報告第32号（2020）pp.119-127

Estimating the Annual Number of Tourists and Tourism Demand
Characteristics on Yakushima Island―A highly Accurate Estimation Method on Remote Islands―
屋久島における年間観光客数と観光需要特性の推計～離島におけるより精度の高い推計法～
Shunichi Takeshita: Associate Professor, Center for Common Education, Daiichi
College of Technology
竹下 俊一

第一工業大学 共通教育センター 准教授

Abstract
This research is to analyze economics impact of the ecotourism industries in YakushimaIsland. Focusing on around year 2000.It was found that there were 200 thousand visitors
to Yakushima in a year approximately, 19-21% of which (34000-38000people) took partin ecotourism activities. The percentage of visitors who were ecotourists almost
increased threefold from 12% in the summer of 1997 to 30% in that of 2002. 57-60% of
ecotourists used package tours, and this result implied the ecotourism industries had
tight relationship with the travel agencies, that that is , the ecotourism industries inYakushima Island has developed based not on alternative tourism but on an optical
tourism but on an optical tourism in mass-tourism industries. The business analysis
made it clear that the ecotourism industries were considerably in good businessenvironment; consequently, the total amount of sales in the Yakushima ecotourism
industries uses were estimate to be 510-570 million yen in a year. The dramatic rise in
the number of ecotourists may result in excessively intensive uses mountain regions.
Though the public authorities have conducted a variety of projects such as regulationsof ordinary-car entries, fundamental issues concerning overuse issues still remain.

Keywords: ecotourism, world natural Heritage, Estimation method, tourism resources
第 55 次“东亚的社会、产业、企业发展政策”国际学术会议（中国、上海、同济大学
2019.7.20）
屋久岛每年在游客数和观光需要特殊性的推算，用精确度高的方法推测。
竹下俊一 1）、李礼 2）、石田尾博夫 3）
本调查研究知道什么是生态旅游和组件关系。理论上受到轮流的二韵律的潮流，发展的东西
被当作生态旅游。但是，与鳟鱼二韵律的关系在屋久岛进行的生态旅游更紧密被了解清楚第一工業大学研究報告 第32号 （2020）了。能理解为包价旅游的自选旅游，而不是被提倡的轮流的二韵律的潮流从以上的结果理论
上存在着屋久岛的生态旅游。
用竹下俊一的报告，利用关于时间顺序性的分析 X2 审定以及剩余误差分析，在 1997 年和2002 年是，并且统计学上在观光需要可以看到差别，或者验证了。以及，关于零假设被显著
水平 5%拒绝的东西，正用正文提到。
1）

日本 第一工业大学副教授 2） 日本 第一工业大学留学生

3）

日本 第一工业大学名誉教授（主持人）

Fig.1.Disposal map relative to the climbing in Yakushima
Note: The burly dotted line is the ‘Main Route’

1. Thesis summary

between the protection of Heritage andIn recent years, it has become clear thatthe use of tourism. This paper examines

World Heritage sites, which are supposed

the function and role of the Worldto preserve and share the value of

Heritage registration in the system ofprecious cultural properties and nature,

tourism, based on the awareness thatare facing various problems, such as a

“Why does this dilemma arise at World

rapid increase in the number of tourist

Heritage sites?”and environmental destruction, as theyThis report is a modified version of the

become more and more of a tourist

Shunichidestination“Characteristics of ecotourists users in

being

registered.

World

1)

TAKESITA
a

paper

World

(Summary)

Heritage sites in various parts of theYakushima,

HeritageSiteworld are now suffering from a balance“ presented at the 55 “ Social an industrial

Takeshita:Estimating the Annual Number of Tourists and Tourism Demand Characteristics on Yakushima Island－A highly Accurate Estimation Method on Remote Islands－

enterprise development policy in East

On the other hand, the depreciation cost

Asia” International Conference (2019.7.20

was smaller than that of the hotel

Tongji University, Shanghai, China ). The

business

economic

ecotourism

suggesting that the amount of investment

business conducted in the research object

required for opening a business was notplace, Yakushima Island, Kagoshimahuge. As a result of the break-even point

prefecture, on the local community was

analysis, sales exceeded the break-even

analyzed from the viewpoint of thepoint sales, and the break-even point ratio

demand side(tourist side),focusing aroundwas smaller than that of the hotel

A.D.2000,

industry,

impact

which

of

the

was

held

at

(14

and

it

hotel

was

management.,

assumedthatthemunicipalities in Asia 20 and the Pacific :business environment was favorable.

5 governmental organizations, UNESCO

Annual ecotourism sales in Yakushima

World Heritages Center) “The 1st World

were

Natural Heritage Meeting (Yakushima

500,000,007 yen. While the business

Island)” 1)sponsored by the Executive

environment of the ecotourism business is

Committee of World Natural Heritage

good, the environmental load to theConference.

mountainous area has also increased. In“Economic

Analysisofestimated

million2) by Shigemitsu

organizations have introduced various

is cited as a prior research.

measuressuchassituation,–

response

２）

the

510

Ecotourism Industry in Yakushima Island
SHIBASAKI and others

toatArakawapublicTozan

The following are the main points.

Bus(shuttle bus system).but no drastic(1)Of the 200,000 or so tourist who visit

measures have been taken.

Yakushima annually, about 34,000-38,000

Theoretically, ecotourism developed inpeople, or 19~21% of the total, used eco-

response to the trend of alternative

tours during their stay in Yakushima

tourism is considered to be ecotourism. (4)(2001 – 2002). Seasonally, 19% of tourist

The authors conclude that ecotourism inused ecotourism in the fall, 7% in winter,

Yakushima can be interpreted not as a

21% in spring, and 30% in summer. (2)The

trend of alternative tourism but as an

majority of tourist using ecotourism

optical tour of package tours.

(57~60%) use package tours (Below is a
packagetour.)

relationshipindicating

the

close

between ecotourism and2. Outline of the survey area
YakushimaIslandinKagoshima

package tours. Furthermore, (3) Analysis

prefecture, located about 135km south ofof the management structure of the

Kagoshima City in a straight line, is an

ecotourism industry revealed that labor

almost circular island that stretches 28

costs accounted for 50% of the costs.

km from east to west and 24 km from

第一工業大学研究報告 第32号 （2020）

north to south. Today’s administrative(Including Kuchino-erabu Island).

area is Yakushima-town (But Kuchino-

Next point shows the rise fall of theerabu-Island

included.).

construction industry using statisticalYakushima Island, with an area of 50,486

data. In the Kumage area as whole (Partha, is about 60% of Sado Island (85,452

of Tanegashima Island and Yakushimaha) and about 2.7 times of Rishiri Island

Island), public works spending continued(18,215 ha). In December 1993, 10,747

to increase even in the 1990’s. This

hectares of Island, mainly mountainous

suggests that before and after the World

areas, which account for about 21% of the

Heritage registration, the Yakushimaisland, was registered as a World Natural

Cultural

Heritagetheenvironmental and Cultural Studies inregistration was that it was evaluated for

Kagoshima Prefecture, the Yakushima

its unique landscape represented by yak

Heritage Center in the Ministry of thecedar (Criterion 7: Lands cape Standards)

Environment,

and for its diverse vegetation ranging

mountainous areas, and so on werefrom warm temperature to cold temperate

improved. However, since 1999, the(Criterion 9 Ecosystem criteria).

amount of public works projects has been

The greatest mountain Kyushu, Mt.

on the decline due to the bitter smile of

Miyanoura-dake (1936 m), is located inpublic works projects after the bursting of

the mountainous region, and the giant

the bubble economy. In response to the“ Yakusugi-cedar ” growing

thedecrease in the volume of projects,

mountains is an important resource, butconstruction companies are also suffering.

the“Jomon- cedar”with a chest-height ofAs

5 and 22 meters is a particularly popular

industry

destination for eco-tourism in this report.

conditions in the agriculture, fishery, andIn the mountain area, there is a natural

construction industries. The symbolic

recreation forest called Yakusugi Land

data of this change is the number ofand Shiratani-Unsuikyo, and there is also

visitors in Yakushima (fig.2). The launcha place where ordinary tourists can easilyof the high-speed vessel in 1983 increased

enjoy

the

The

is

site.

the

also

The

naturepopulation

of

for

in

Yakushima.

roads

mentionediscarrying

andCentertoforaccessabove,

thetourism

growingamid

severecapacity

in

terms

of

Yakushima-town

transportation. The registration of (1993)

reached 23,010 in 1960 and continued toas a World Natural Heritage Site also

decrease until the end of the 1980s, but

served as a stimulus, and the number ofhas remained stable at 13,000-14,000

visitors has been increasing since thesince the 1990s.

1990s. Furthermore, due to the fact that

census,theofreasonCenter

According to the 2010

population

was

13,592the total eclipse of the moon can be seen

Takeshita:Estimating the Annual Number of Tourists and Tourism Demand Characteristics on Yakushima Island－A highly Accurate Estimation Method on Remote Islands－

in Yakushima Island, the annual number

island after being registered as a Worldof visitors reached about 400,000 in 2009,

Natural Heritage Site.

but has since decreased to about 350,000
around 2010. It should be noted that the

3. Characteristicof

ecotourism

number of visitors includes not only

Customers who came out from thetourists but also local visitors.

questionnaire survey 7).

The total of the tourist rate original

As for the attributes of eco-tourism users

apart from a seed Yakushima office ofare males, while eco-tourism users havetourism according to SHIBAZAKI’s report

more than half of females at all times.

and

of

(Table 1 ). In the summer of 1997, women

showing, twice, 1997 and 2001-2002,

accounted for 34% of ecotourism users,

when the tourist who does and uses abut in the summer of 2002 it increased tolarge ship of irregular service was57%. Regarding eco-tourism users, thoseincluded, I made it clear that a tourist of

in their 20s and 30s accounted for 46% toabout 200,000 people a year is visiting

49%, while those in their 60s and over

Yakushima.2)

accounted for 16-18%. On the other hand,

Twenty years later, it is certain that thein the case of non-eco-tourism users, thetourism industry in Yakushima has grown,

number was 23-29% of those in their 60s

and has grown into a key industry on theor older.

othersquestionnaire

surveyFig.2 trend of construction industry in kumage Area and Yakushima

第一工業大学研究報告 第32号 （2020）

In terms of residential areas, residents

flight. ４）、５）

in Kano region accounted for 41-42%

When asked what the purpose of theirthroughout the year, followed by thevisit

Chubu region. On the other hand, in theecotourism users mentioned mountain

case

the

climbing, while only 3 to 40% of non-proportion of residence in the Kanto

ecotourism users mentioned mountainregion was only 33-34%. By the way, as ofclimbing. The ecotourism program in

the summer of 1977, the proportion ofYakushima was centered on the rareecotourism users who live in Kanto region

experience of the natural environment,

was only 19% and at the time 40% of theespecially in the mountainous area, whichusers were from neighboring areas such

was reflected in the results.

ofnon-ecotourism

users,

toYakushima

was,

70%

of

as Kyushu and Okinawa. A survey of the
betweenRegarding the number of visitors per

Kagoshima (Tanegashima, Ibusuki) andgroup, in the case of ecotourism users, aYakushima revealed that only 25% of non-small group of -2 people made up theecotourism passengers used flights, while

majority (51~52%), while non-users made49~50% of ecotourism passengers used

up only 31~37%.

means

of

transportation

Table1. Characteristics of ecotourism customers
列1

列2

列3

列4

visitor of ecotourism

non visitor of ecoturism

comparison of summer（1997 year→2002 year)

sex

woman (55％～56％）

man (61％）

increasing of woman visitors

age

twenties and thirties(46％～49％）
ages 60 and over(16％～18％）

twenties and thirties(46％～49％）
ages 60 and over(23％～29％）

no changes

occupation

public employee, manufacturing industry, student,homemaker, service indestry

residence

Kanto district(41％-42％）
Chubu district（15％～18％）

traffic of out of island

airplane(49％～50％） high speed vessel（43％ airplane(25％) high speed vessel（52
～46%)
～57％）

n.a

purpose of visitation

mountain climbing(74％）

mountain climbing(26～34％）n.a

the group number of people

1-2 people (51％～52％)
more than 10people(26％～27％)

more than 10 people(38％～49％)

no big changes

packaging tour

someone who used (57～60％）

someone who used (44％～53％）

increasing rate of packaging
tour utilization（43％→62％）

traffic on island

rental car(45～47％） chartered bus（20～22％）

rental car(30～35％） chartered bus（32～41％）no big changes

accomodations

Kanto district(33％～34％）
Kyushu・Okinawa district(17％～18％)

hotel (around 60％） Guest house（around 20％～30％）

no changes
Kyushu・Okinawa district(40％→19％）
Kanto district(19％→47％）

decreasing rate of shelter
utilization(15％→2％）

the number of accomodations on island

2～3night

1～2night

no big changes

visit destination on island

Chihiro waterfall(67％～68％）
Shirotaniunsuikyou(58％～60％）
Joumon ceder（56％～57％）

Chihiro waterfall(72％～77％）
Yaku ceder land(67％～75％）
Kigen ceder（65％～70％）

Shiritaniunsuikyou(40％→60％）
Inaka beach(20％→38％）
West forest road（16％→36％）

sightseeing except for Yakushimasomeone who visited (37％～38％）

someone who visited(58％～64％）n,asouvenir charges
yearly income

about 11,000 yen
518-528 million yen

528-540 million yen

n.a
no big changes

annotation : With regard to visitor of ecotourism and non ecotourism, It is result of model analysis that is estimated by refering to actual situation according to
the month using by result of aggregated four times of questionnaire that is conducted November,2001 February,2001 May,2002 August2002 by estimatedaccording to the month.
With regard to comparison of summer(1997year→2002year), We compared result of questionnaire that is conducted in August,1997 and 2002 year.

Takeshita:Estimating the Annual Number of Tourists and Tourism Demand Characteristics on Yakushima Island－A highly Accurate Estimation Method on Remote Islands－

However, looking at the percentage ofused mountain huts and tents, but in thegroups with 10or more visitors (Following

summerare the group

visitors), 26~27% ofdecreased by 13 points, and the null

Ecotourism users were group visitors,

hypothesis was rejected at a statisticallyalthough this percentage is less than thesignificant level of 1%.

38~49%

recorded

by

of

2002,

the

percentage

non-users.

The result suggest that ecotourism

Comparing summer 1997 and 2002, theusers may be more likely to climb

percentage of the group of 10 visitors or

mountains on day trips than they were 5

more remained almost unchanged fromyears ago. The number of stay days on the

17% (1997) to 19% (2002) indicating thatisland for ecotourism users is the highest

the use of ecotourism by group travelers

at 2-3 nights (74~75%). The survey also

has been relatively early and to a certain

found that most of the visitors who did notextent.

use the facilities stayed at least -2 nights

We would also like to clarify the
relationship(72~79%), with ecotourism users staying

between ecotourism andat Yakushima for about one night longer.

package tours planned by travel agencies.

9) However, the percentage of long-term

Among ecotourism users, package tours

residents who stayed more than fiveaccounted for 57~60%. On the other hand,nights did not reach 10% for both

only 44~53% of non-ecotourism users

ecotourism users and non-users.６）

used package tours. Comparing theSenpiro-Falls, an island sightseeing

summer of 1997 and 2002, the proportion

spot that many ecotourism users visited,of ecotourism users who took package

is the most popular at 67~68%, followed

tours increased from 19 43% in 1997 to

by Shiratani-Unsuikyo (58~60%), Jomon-

62% in 2002.

Sugi (56~57%), Okawa Falls (52~54%),

The most frequently used transportation

Kigensugi-Cedaron the island was rental cars (45~47%),

Yakusugi Land (50~51%). The results

followed by charted buses (20~22%). On

showed that ecotourism users were more

the other hand, among non-users, thelikely to visit mountain areas and Worldlargestnumber(32~41%),

usedfollowedby(53~55%),andchartedbuses

Heritagerentalcars

example, while 32~39% of non-ecotourism

sites

than

non-users.

For(30~35%).

users visit Shiratani-Unsuikyo, 58~60%

The proportion of ecotourism usersof ecotourism users do so. The situation

staying at hotels was the highest at

was similar for the Jomonsugi cedar tree,

61~63%, followed by minshuku / pensions

where only about 20~27% of non-users(24~28%) and ryokans (14~15%). In thevisitedsummer of 1997, 15% of ecotourism users

ecotourism visitors did.

the

tree

while

56~57%

of

第一工業大学研究報告 第32号 （2020）

In addition, ecotourism users were more

guests are using ecotourism. From thelikely than non-users to visit the Western

above results, it can be interpreted that

Forest Road, where laurel forests are

ecotourism in Yakushima exists not as an

spreading, and the “Inakahama”Beach,alternative tourism flow theoreticallywhich is known for sea turtles. Comparedadvocated, but as an optical tour ofwith five years ago, the percentage of

package tours.

Shiratani-

From the above results, it can be

Unsuikyo Gorge, Inakahama Beach, andinterpreted that ecotourism in Yakushima

Seibu Forest Road has also increased inexists as an optical package tour rather

summer. In summary, ecotourism users

than a theoretically advocated alternative

preferred to visit areas with beautiful andtourism stream.7.).8)

ecotourism

users

visitingrare flora and fauna, a trend that wasstronger than five years ago.
About 11,000 yen per percent was spent
on souvenirs for both ecotourism users
and non-ecotourism users. There was no
significant difference in annual income
between ecotourism users and non-users.
Another noteworthy point was therelationshippackage

between ecotourism andtours.

Theoretically,thosedeveloped in response to the trend ofalternative

tourism

areconsidered“ecotourism”. However, ecotourism inYakushima has turned out to be moreclosely related to be mass tourism.
Accommodation shows a high rate of hoteluse, again indicating that package tours▲発表者（筆者ら）同済大学

Takeshita:Estimating the Annual Number of Tourists and Tourism Demand Characteristics on Yakushima Island－A highly Accurate Estimation Method on Remote Islands－

Notice:data.

Shigemitsu SHIBAZAKI,Yusuke SAKATA,

and1)Hiroo ISHIDAO, Sponsored by the Executive

Makoto NAGATA “the number of annual tourists

Committee of the World Natural Heritagein Yakushima and estimation of sightseeing

Conference(20 municipalities in 14countries indemand property-expensive stochastic method

Asia Pacific,5goverrnment agencies, UNESCO

which is higher than it can be put in the isolated

World Heritage Center) “ 1st World Heritage

island”, 2003 and 1-25 page.

Conference“Yakusima ” 2nd comittee“World

5)Shunichi TAKESHITA: For time serious analysis,

Heritage Report”on Chairman’s Report、Mayit was verified statistically whether there is a

18-19,2000.

difference in tourism demand between 1997 and

2) Shigemitsu SHIBAZAKI “Analysis of ecotourism

2002 usingⅩ2 test and residual analysis . And

in Yakushima,” National museum of Ethnology,

we are pursuing in the text about the null

Research Report 193, February 2015, pp. 54-61.

hypothesis rejected at the significance level of 5.

The survey period on the tourism demand side6) Estimating the average number of overnightisautumn).

stays on the island, it was estimated that the

February 2002 (hereinafter, winter), May 2002

eco-tourism tourists had 2.7 nights and the non-(hereinafter, spring), and July-August 2002

eco-tourism tourists had 1.9-2.1 nights.

(hereinafter,

7)Hiroo ISHIDAO, World Natural Heritage

November

2001(hereinafter,summer).

The

resultofquestionnaire surveys conducted at Yakushimaregistration and the challenges of creating

Airport, Miyanoura Port, and Anbo port at eachsustainable tourism destinations-Economic

time were used. Regarding the summer season,

analysis of Ecotourism in Yakushima.55-social

the result of a similar questionnaire survey

andconducted in 1997 were also used to approach

policyinchanges over time.

(2019.7.20,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai,China).

・ Shigemitsu

SHIBAZAKI,

development

EastAsia InternationalConference

MAKITA,8)Syunichi TAKESHITA, Estimating the annual

Yasuhiro YOKOTA, Shin NAGATA “Impact of World

number of tourists and tourism demand

NaturalLocalcharacteristics on Yakushima Island-A more

Resource Management System: A Case Study ofaccurate estimation method on remote islands.

Mountainous Area of Yakushima”, Forestry9)hironobu BABA ,Kesayosi KIRA and Kunihiro

Economy 59 [8], 2006, pp. 1-16…

HARUTA, Behavioral Patterns and Ways of the3) SHIBASAKI and NAGATA ｢ Estimation of the

Climbers at the ″Yakushima″.Bulletin of the

Number of Tourists to Yakushima Island. ｣Faculty of Agriculture, Kagoshima University『Journal of Forest Economics 138』.

No.46,57-66pp.

Heritage

Kunihiro

industrial enterpris

Registrationon４) It’s being put into effect by making reference
to the following document about the outline of aquestionnaire survey and acquisition method of