Outline of“Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Tsunami
due to Large Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough”

English version
Translated in July, 2023
Secretariat of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion

This document is a translation from Japanese to English of “「南海トラフ沿いで発生する大地震の確率論的津波評価」の概要” （地震調査研究推進本部事務局） published in January, 2020.
1

Background and Objectives of Tsunami Evaluation• In light of the devastating disaster caused by the tsunami generated by the March 11,2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, the Subcommittee for Tsunami
Evaluations was established under the Earthquake Research Committee to examine
methods for predicting tsunamis generated by earthquakes and to assess tsunamis
using such methods, in order to contribute to tsunami disaster prevention measures.
• The objective is to examine standard methods for tsunami assessment and predictionof tsunami heights based on scientific knowledge, and to present them in asystematic and easy-to-understand manner. The assessment of tsunami hazards takes
into account various sources, including not only the largest earthquake, but also
earthquakes of potentially recurring sizes.

2Key points of this assessment of tsunami• The Earthquake Research Committee is conducting tsunami assessments for
subduction-zone earthquakes for which long-term evaluations have been conducted,
based on the “Tsunami prediction method for earthquakes with characterized source
faults (Tsunami Recipe)” (published in January 2017).
• The key points are as follows: The first assessment focuses on the Nankai Trough, which has already undergone longterm evaluations (“Long-term Evaluation of seismic activity along the Nankai Trough(second edition),” published in May 2013).
 The assessment targets tsunamis caused by the earthquakes of M8–9 that are equal toor less than the largest historical Hoei Earthquake, and are considered highly likely tooccur in the future. “The largest-possible earthquake,” whose occurrence is unknown
in historical records, is excluded.
 In collaboration with other subcommittees under the Earthquake Research Committee,
a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) is conducted to assess tsunamis
from various earthquakes.

3Structure of this assessment
Structure of “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment due to Large Earthquakes along
the Nankai Trough”• Key points• Summary document (this document)

Summary, etc.

Main text
Index
Chapter 1 Flow chart of this assessment of tsunami
Chapter 2 Setting and weighting patterns for combinations of source areas
Chapter 3 Tsunami prediction method for assumed source faults
Chapter 4 Results of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA)
Chapter 5 Precautions regarding utilization
Chapter 6 Future issues
AppendixTechnical materials, etc.

4

1. Flow chart of this assessment

Chapter 1

Long-term Evaluation of seismic activity along the Nankai Trough (2013)

Chapter 2 / Appendix 1
Setting patterns for combinations of source areas, and weighting

Chapter 3 / Appendix 2
Setting source fault models according toTsunami Recipe (2017)
Chapter 3 / Appendix 3
Tsunami simulation with
Tsunami Recipe (2017)

Setting of large slip zones

Appendix 4
Validation of tsunami
simulation results
Appendix 6

Chapter 4 / Appendix 5

Consideration of uncertainty

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA)
52. Earthquakes and tsunamis to be evaluated /Setting of combination patterns Chapter 2•This evaluation targets tsunamis associated with M8–M9-class interplate earthquakes evaluated in the longterm evaluation of seismic activity along the Nankai Trough. The evaluation excludes "the largest-possible
earthquake," since its frequency of occurrence is unquantifiable and its associated tsunami is unverifiableaccording to Tsunami Recipe•

As shown in the figure, the evaluation target area of the Nankai Trough is divided into segments, and their
combination patterns are created.
The following earthquakes are excluded.
-Those consisting of only deep part segments-Those that include all of shallow, intermediate, and deep part segments-for E: Those with only shallow part segments from Cape Omaezaki to Fuji River-for Z: Those consisting only of segments between Cape Toi and Cape Ashizuri
As a result, 176 combination patterns consisting of source areas from M7.6 to M9.0 are created.

••

Map of evaluation target areas and segments in the Nankai Trough (revised figure in “Long-term Evaluation ofseismic activity along the Nankai Trough” (Earthquake Research Committee, 2013))
6

2. Weighting

Chapter 2

PTHA requires determining the likelihood (weighting) of each pattern.
The set of 176 patterns are classified into eight sections.
First, weighting is performed for each of the eight sections, and the patterns belonging to the same section are equallyweighted.
(1) Branching and weighting distribution according to the number of segments that simultaneously rupture in the strikedirection*, considering the long-term evaluation of seismic activity along the Nankai Trough *along strike of the Nankai TroughBased on combination of source areas of great earthquakes that have occurred along the Nankai Trough in the past, thepatterns are classified as follows:
Group I Patterns consisting of source areas where the number of segments that simultaneously rupture in the strikedirection is all three or lessRepresentative patterns: Patterns corresponding to the Ansei Tokai-Nankai Earthquakes and the Showa
Tonankai-Nankai Earthquakes
Group II Patterns including source areas with four or more segments that rupture simultaneously in the strike direction
Representative patterns: Patterns corresponding to the Hoei Earthquake
The long-term evaluation of seismic activity along the Nankai Trough indicates that great earthquakes along the Nankai
Trough occur repeatedly every 100–200 years, among which Hoei-class great earthquakes occur repeatedly at intervals of
300–600 years. Although there is variation in these frequency of occurrences, considering the recent past frequency ofoccurrence and the method used in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan, weights of 2/3 and 1/3 are assigned toGroups I and II, respectively.
Great Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough（M8～M9 class） 1

Long-term
evaluation

2/3

Group I 2/3
Source models with three or lesssegments along the strike direction

1/3

Group II 1/3
Source models with four or moresegments along the strike direction

The largestpossible earthquake
72. Weighting （continued）

Chapter 2（２）Branching and weighting distribution according to spread of source areas in the platesubducting direction (dip direction)
In terms of spread of source areas in the dip direction, both Groups I and II, are divided into two subgroups:“intermediate part only” composed of precedented types and “intermediate part / deep part, intermediate part / shallow
part, and shallow part only” composed of unprecedented types. In each group, 4/5 and 1/5 of the overall groupweightings are distributed to the to the respective subgroups.

（３）Branching and weighting distribution due to spread of source areas in strike direction① Two subgroups belonging to Group I

In terms of spread of source areas in the strike direction, the two subgroups are divided into two sub-subgroups:“AB|CD or AB|CDE" composed of precedented types and "others" composed of all other unprecedented types. In eachsub-subgroup, 4/5 and 1/5 of the overall subgroup weightings are distributed to the respective sub-subgroups.

② Two subgroups belonging to Group II
In terms of spread of source areas in the strike direction, the two subgroups are divided into two sub-subgroups:“ABCD, ABCDE, or ABCD|E" composed of precedented types and "others" composed of all other unprecedented
types. In each sub-subgroup, 4/5 and 1/5 of the overall subgroup weightings are distributed to the respective subsubgroups..

8

2. Weighting （Summary 1）

Chapter 2Group Ⅰ 2/3

Sources with three or less segments along the strike

1/5

Along dip

4/5

Intermediate parts only
8/15

Along strike

4/5
(a)
AB|CD
AB|CDE
32/75

1/5(b) Others 8/75

Intermediate/Deep parts, Intermediate/Shallow parts, orShallow parts only 2/15

4/5

(c)
AB|CD
AB|CDE
8/75

1/5(d) Others 2/75

Weights ofeach part0.42670.10670.10670.0267

Number ofpatterns ineach part

2

35

6

92

Weight foreach pattern

0.21330.00300.01780.00039

Chapter 2

2. Weighting（Summary 2）

Along dip

Group Ⅱ 1/3

Along strike

4/5
(e)
ABCD
ABCDE
ABCD|E
16/75

Sources with four or more segments along the strike

4/5

1/5

Intermediate part only
4/15

Intermediate/Deep parts, Intermediate/Shallow parts,
or Shallow parts only 1/15

1/5(f) Others 4/75

4/5

1/5

(g)
ABCD
ABCDE
ABCD|E
4/75(h) Others 1/75

Weights ofeach part

0.21330.05330.05330.0133

Number ofpatterns ineach part

3

8

8

22

0.00670.00670.0006Weight for 0.0711
each pattern

10

3. Setting of large slip zones

Chapter 3

Influence of heterogeneity of fault slip distribution on tsunami generation is taken into
consideration according to Tsunami Recipe (2017)• Large slip zones (30% of the source area) are set to have double slip amount of the
background zones.
• No large slip zones are set in the deep part, where large slips unlikely occur.

Examples of large slip zone setting in the Nankai Trough (yellow indicates the large slip
zones, light yellow indicates the background zones)

11

Chapter 3

3. Tsunami calculation

Tsunami height is calculated under the configuration of characterized earthquake fault models,according to Tsunami Recipe (2017)
Maximum height
20 m > h ≥ 10 m
10 m > h ≥ 5 m
5m>h≥ 3m
3m>h≥ 2m
2m>h≥ 1m
1m>h≥ 0m

Maximum tsunami height by the source （津波高）
Model 04-102

Initial water height

Slip distribution

12

Chapter 4

4. Hazard curve calculation

A tsunami hazard curve* is calculated from the superimposition of the tsunami calculation
results in 3., which are given appropriate variation and are weighted according to the
distribution given in 2.

Probability of exceedance in 30 years*Relationship between tsunami height and tsunami probability of exceedance at given certain hazard evaluation point along coastline• Shown range: the maximum tsunami
height is 3 m or higher, and probabilityof exceedance in 30 years is 6% or more(equivalent to a recurrence-period of 500
years or shorter)• The dotted line represents 26%(equivalent to a recurrence-period of 100
years)
Maximum tsunami height (m)（津波高）

Example of a hazard curve(Vertical axis is displayed in logarithmic scale)13

4. Results of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

Chapter 4

The probability of tsunami height along the coast being 3 m or higher due to a great earthquake occurring along the
Nankai Trough within the next 30 years
Features• The probability exceeds 26% in wide ranges.
• There are places with locally high probability of exceedance, such as in the Izu
Islands and Kyushu, which are relatively apart from the tsunami source.
• In places with topographical features that thatgenerally have higher tsunamis,
such as the inner bays of rias coasts facing the open sea and straight coasts, theprobability tends to be higher relative to surrounding areas.

C. Shioyazaki

C. Inubosaki

Miura
IwakuniOkayama

OnomichiC. Nojimazaki

Akashi

Oshima Is.

Shimonoseki
Wakayama

HiradoC. Irago

Takamatsu

C. Oihozaki

NiihamaNarutoC. SadaKunisaki

C. Muroto

C. Sekizaki

Owase

C. Daiozaki

Niijima Is.
Miyakejima Is.
C. IroC. Omaezaki

C. Onikizaki

Chichijima Is.
Hachijojima Is.

C. Shionomisaki

Nagasaki

Hahajima Is.

Aogashima Is.

C. Ashizuri
C. Tsurumisaki

Kagoshima

Mikurajima Is.

Miyazaki
C. Noma

C. Sata

Gray coasts are not assessed in this evaluation.

Ioto Is.

Tanegashima Is.
Yakushima Is.

probability of exceedance in 30 years

144. Results of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

Chapter 4

The probability of tsunami height along the coast being 5 m or higher due to a great earthquake occurring along the
Nankai Trough within the next 30 years
Features• The probability exceeds 6% widely, mainly along the Pacific coast from the
Kyushu region to the Tokai region.
• The probability exceeds 26% in areas closer to the potential source areas.
• In places with topographical features that generally have higher tsunamis,
such as the inner bays of rias coasts facing the open sea and straight coasts,
the probability tends to be higher relative to surrounding areas.

C. Inubosaki

Miura

Iwakuni
OnomichiOkayama

C. Nojimazaki

Akashi

Oshima Is.

Shimonoseki
Wakayama

HiradoC. Irago

Takamatsu

C. Oihozaki

NiihamaNarutoOwase

C. Daiozaki

Niijima Is.
Miyakejima Is.
C. IroMikurajima Is.

C. Omaezaki

Chichijima Is.

C. SadaKunisaki

C. Muroto

C. Sekizaki

C. Shionomisaki

Nagasaki
C. Onikizaki

C. Shioyazaki

C. Tsurumisaki
Miyazaki

C. Noma

Hahajima Is.

Aogashima Is.

C. Ashizuri

Kagoshima

Hachijojima Is.

C. Sata

Gray coasts are not assessed in this evaluation.

Ioto Is.

Tanegashima Is.
Yakushima Is.

probability of exceedance in 30 years

154. Results of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

Chapter 4

The probability of tsunami height along the coast being 10 m or higher due to a great earthquake occurring along the
Nankai Trough within the next 30 years
Features• Some areas near the potential source areas have probabilities of 6% or more
and less than 26%.
• In places with topographical features that generally have higher tsunamis,
such as the inner bays of rias coasts facing the open sea and straight coasts,
the probability tends to be higher relative to surrounding areas.

OnomichiOkayama

C. Nojimazaki

Akashi

Oshima Is.

Shimonoseki
Wakayama

HiradoC. Irago

Takamatsu

C. Oihozaki

NiihamaNarutoOwase

Niijima Is.
Miyakejima Is.
C. IroMikurajima Is.

C. Daiozaki C. Omaezaki

Chichijima Is.

C. SadaKunisaki

C. Muroto

C. Sekizaki
Nagasaki

C. Shionomisaki

Hachijojima Is.

Hahajima Is.

Aogashima Is.

C. Ashizuri

Kagoshima

C. Tsurumisaki
Miyazaki

C. Noma

C. Inubosaki

Miura

Iwakuni

C. Onikizaki

C. Shioyazaki

C. Sata

Gray coasts are not assessed in this evaluation.

Ioto Is.

Tanegashima Is.
Yakushima Is.

probability of exceedance in 30 years

164. Results of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (continued)

Chapter 4

The table shows probability of exceedance in 30 years (≥3 m, ≥5 m, ≥10 m) for each municipality*.
*Subdivided by topographic features, etc., for some cases
Criteria of probability notation• If it spans multiple categories, all of them are noted with “or”.
• If the portion of the lower category is small, it is excluded.
• If the portion of the upper category is very small, it is noted with “partially”.
(Because, from the perspective of disaster prevention, points with high probability cannot be ignored,
but are limited to only a small part of the area)[Example] Table of probability of exceedance in 30 years for each municipality in Tokushima Prefecture
Prefecture

Municipality

都道府県名

市区町村名

Probability of exceedance in 30 years of X-m or
highertsunami in each municipality
今後30年以内に南海トラフ沿いで大地震が発生し、
due to a great earthquake along the Nankai Trough海岸の津波高が○ｍ以上になる確率

３ｍ５ｍ

p<6% orまたは 6≤ p <26% ６％未満 p<6%

１０ｍ

６％未満
徳島市

６％未満

６％以上２６％未満

p<6%

６％未満
鳴門市（紀伊水道）

または

６％未満

６％未満

６％以上２６％未満
鳴門市（ウチノ海）
鳴門市（播磨灘）

６％未満
一部６％以上２６％未満
６％未満

６％未満

６％未満

６％未満

６％未満

６％未満

６％未満

６％未満
小松島市

または
６％以上２６％未満
６％未満

徳島県

または
阿南市

６％以上２６％未満
または

６％未満
または

６％未満

６％以上２６％未満

２６％以上
牟岐町

２６％以上
６％以上２６％未満

美波町

または
２６％以上
６％以上２６％未満

海陽町

または
２６％以上

６％以上２６％未満
６％以上２６％未満
一部２６％以上

６％未満
６％未満

６％未満
または
６％以上２６％未満

６％未満
一部６％以上２６％未満

一部２６％以上

６％未満
松茂町

または

６％未満

６％未満

６％以上２６％未満

17

5. Precautions regarding utilization

Chapter 5○There are presumably many places included in the charts of this tsunami assessment, where the maincause of the most frequent and high tsunamis are mainly due to “other factors” than large earthquakes
along the Nankai Trough. We are planning to proceed with tsunami assessment that includes otherinfluential factors, such as the earthquakes excluded from this tsunami assessment. Even so, the valuesof the probability of exceedance shown here will not decrease, although they may increase.

○This tsunami assessment targets the tsunamis caused by the next earthquake along the Nankai Troughthat is equal to or less than the largest historical Hoei Earthquake. The assessment excluded “thelargest-possible earthquake”, because a comparison and verification of the evaluation results based on
Tsunami Recipe and the actual measurements are impossible. The frequency of occurrence of “thelargest-possible earthquake” is unquantifiable; it seldom occurs, but its possibility cannot be ruled out.
○This tsunami assessment excludes earthquakes that occur independently in the Hyuga-nada Sea ("Z"segment in the strike direction). For such earthquakes, we are planning a separate tsunami assessment
based on the long-term evaluation of seismic activity along the Hyuga-nada Sea.
○Uncertainty regarding the spread of individual source faults and source areas (earthquake diversity) is
factored into this tsunami assessment by combining many assumed source areas, source fault models,
and their weighting. Additionally, uncertainty in tsunami calculation due to characterized sources
based on the Tsunami Recipe is incorporated into this tsunami assessment by giving variations to thetsunami calculation results. However, there still remain residual uncertainties in this tsunami
assessment, such as:(a) Uncertainty included in the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake inlong-term evaluation(b) Unconsidered uncertainty in source fault settings (segmentation, branch faults, etc.)18

5. Precautions regarding utilization (continued)

Chapter 5○ In the PTHA, low probability of exceedance of the maximum tsunami heightshould not be interpreted as an inundation that the location is generally safe against
tsunamis.
○This tsunami assessment evaluates the maximum tsunami height, which should not
be confused with the inundation depth. The parameters of the source fault model andthe calculation results for each model will be published separately, which are useable
as needed to estimate tsunami inundation due to individual earthquakes that are likely
to occur in the future (excluding “the largest-possible earthquake”). Additionally,
related organizations are preparing to create a system for acquiring data related to thistsunami assessment.
○The probability of exceedance and recurrence period in this tsunami assessment arefor tsunamis caused by earthquakes that are highly likely to occur in the future, andthey are different from the occurrence probability and recurrence period of tsunamis
caused by previous earthquakes.

196. Future issues

Chapter 6○Related organizations are investigating and researching how to utilize the PTHA fortsunami disaster prevention measures. More widespread and effective use of thistsunami assessment in tsunami disaster prevention measures requires the presentation of
the significance and effectiveness of probabilistic assessments as well as theassumptions and limitations of assessments to users in an easy-to-understand manner,and further research and investigations are needed based on comments from users.
○ This assessment should be updated when the long-term evaluation of seismic activity
along the Nankai Trough will be revised. In particular, this tsunami assessment needs tobe updated when the following points are updated in the long-term evaluation:• When the occurrence probability, source area, and magnitude of great earthquakes
are changed considerably based on new knowledge.
• When new knowledge is obtained on how to allocate weights for large slip zones, etc.
• When new knowledge is obtained on earthquakes involving branch faults.
○When new knowledge on more reliable tsunami traces is obtained, then the validationof tsunami prediction methods (especially Tsunami Recipe) can be more appropriately
confirmed, which will lead to improve the accuracy of the PTHA.

20

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （1/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Weight

N

Depth

151

9

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

0.0711150

0.0030

1,017

1Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

2

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030678

10Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

3

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.2133

144

11

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.2133

144

4

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030648

12Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030972

5Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030684

13Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067684

6Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

3,096

14

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

4,644

7

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030648

15Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030648

8Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

2,916

16

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.00304,374WeightN

Depth

WeightN

906

25

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067150

0.0067678

Depth

0.0711Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

17

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

18

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

4,068

26

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

19

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030864

27

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

144

20

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

3,888

28

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030648

21Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.00304,104

29

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

1,368

22

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.003018,57630

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

6,192

23

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

3,888

31

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

1,296

24

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.003017,49632

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.00305,832

0.071121

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （2/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern (continued)
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

Depth

0.0067

150

41

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

1,017

42

Source areas
B
C

WeightN

0.0067900

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

4,068

0.0030

864

Z

A

D

E

33

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

34

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

35

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030144

43

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

36

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030972

44

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

3,888

37

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

1,368

45

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.00308,208

38

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.00309,288

46

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.003037,152

39

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

1,296

47

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

7,776

40

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0030

8,748

48

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.003034,992

WeightN

Depth

WeightN

49

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

86

57

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

86

50

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

396

58

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

396

51

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0178

81

59

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0178

81

52

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

60

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003324

53

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

396

61

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

396

54

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,620

62

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,620

55

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

63

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003324

56

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,296

64

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,296

Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

22

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （3/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern (continued)
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Weight

N

Depth

516

73

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

0.0006860.0006354

65

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

66

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,376

74

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

67

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003486

75

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

81

68

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

76

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

69

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,376

77

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

594

70

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

9,720

78

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,430

71

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

79

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003486

72

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

7,776

80

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

WeightN

Depth

WeightN

81

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

86

89

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

516

82

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006354

90

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

2,124

83

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

81

91

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003486

84

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

92

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

85

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006594

93

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

3,564

86

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,430

94

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

14,58087

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003486

95

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,916

88

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

96

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

11,664Depth

0.0067Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

23

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （4/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern (continued)
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

Depth

0.0067

58

105

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

0.0067

40

97

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

98

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

348

106

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

348

99

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.017854

107

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.017836

100

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

108

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

101

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

240

109

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

168

102

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,404

110

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,404

103

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

216

111

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

144

104

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,296

112

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,296

WeightN

Depth

Weight

N

174

121

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.000628

0.0006

168

Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

113

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

114

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,044

122

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

115

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

162

123

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

24

116

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

972

124

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

144

117

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

720

125

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

360

118

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

4,212

126

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,106

119

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

648

127

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

324

120

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

3,888

128

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

0.006724

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （5/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern (continued)
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

Depth

0.0006

20

137

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

0.0006

84

129

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

130

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

168

138

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

504

131

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

16

139

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

72

132

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

144

140

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

432

133

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

252

141

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,080

134

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

2,106

142

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

6,318

135

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

216

143

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

972

136

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

1,944

144

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

5,832

WeightN

Depth

WeightN

145

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

42

153

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.0067

42

146

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

96

154

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

96

147

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.017836

155

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep0.017836

148

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

72

156

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

72

149

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

120

157

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

120

150

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

288

158

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

288

151

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

96

159

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

96

152

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

160

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

192

Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

0.0003

192

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

25

[Reference] Source area combination patterns （6/6）
Source area combination patterns, weights distributed to each pattern, number of cases
included in each pattern (continued)
Depth

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

Weight

N

Depth

42

169

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

Z

A

Source areas
B
C

D

E

WeightN

0.0006420.0006

96

161

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

162

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.000696

170

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

163

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.000336

171

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.000336

164

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

72

172

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

72

165

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

180

173

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0006

180

166

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

432

174

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

432

167

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

144

175

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

144

168

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003

288

176

Shallow
Intermediate
Deep

0.0003288

0.0006

N is number of cases.

26