© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience66๹ࡄָढ़࿊‫ܠ‬ରʀೖຌָढ़ճ٠෵߻ࡄ֒΃͹ඍ͓ʖ ZLWKαϫψ࣎େΝਫ਼͘Ζූఆ֧ᆷ஽ఆ॔᪥ᮏᏛ⾡఍㆟㐃ᦠ఍ဨᅜ❧◊✲㛤Ⓨἲே 㜵⅏⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡◊✲ᡤ 㤳㒔ᅪ䝺䝆䝸䜶䞁䝇◊✲᥎㐍䝉䞁䝍䞊ᮾி኱Ꮫྡ㄃ᩍᤵ ᖹ⏣┤୺ ദ䠖㜵⅏Ꮫ⾡㐃ᦠయ䞉᪥ᮏᏛ⾡఍㆟᪥ ᫬䠖௧࿴㻞ᖺ㻝㻜᭶㻟᪥䠄ᅵ䠅 㻝㻟㻦㻟㻜ࠥ㻝㻡㻦㻜㻜ሙ ᡤ䠖 䜸䞁䝷䜲䞁 䝉䝑䝅䝵䞁 㻿㻿㻙㻝㻝㻌
2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

1© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceෆᐜ㻝㻚 ୙☜ᐇᛶ䛜ቑ኱䛩䜛᫬௦䐟㤳㒔┤ୗᆅ㟈ᐖ㻦㻌㻹㻣䜽䝷䝇䐠༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣䛾ᕧ኱ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䠖㻹㻥㻞㻚 ᭱㏆䛾ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䛸䚸㛵ᮾ኱㟈⅏㻟㻚 䜎䛸䜑
2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

2© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceෆᐜ㻝㻚 ୙☜ᐇᛶ䛜ቑ኱䛩䜛᫬௦䐟㤳㒔┤ୗᆅ㟈ᐖ㻦㻌㻹㻣䜽䝷䝇䐠༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣䛾ᕧ኱ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䠖㻹㻥㻞㻚 ᭱㏆䛾ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䛸䚸㛵ᮾ኱㟈⅏㻟㻚 䜎䛸䜑
2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ20203

© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceৗ஑崛嵕崲崎崌嵓崡૎ഉඪ‫&ق‬29,'‫ك‬峘୶஭峘ੜপવਲ崰嵑崽ೋপ৉൜಼૩峢峘਄峴ੌ峩%HIRUH&29,'ཎ૔৓峔ཎ૔৓峔嵒ཎ૔৓峔嵒崡崗

ਠ૔

:LWK
$IWHU&29,' &29,'嵒崡崗岶ႀ૔৲ਂનৰਙ岶ੜপኚ㠉䛜ồ䜑䜙䜜䜛䠖䝺䝆䝸䜶䞁䝇ྥୖ䛾䛒䜚᪉䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

2020/10/3

4© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience䐟 㤳㒔┤ୗᆅ㟈䠄㻹㻣䜽䝷䝇䠅Ⓨ⏕᫬ᮇ䛾ண ྍ⬟ᛶ 㤳㒔ᅪ䠄༡㛵ᮾᇦ䠅䛷㻟㻜ᖺ௨ෆ䛻㻣㻜䠂┤᥋⿕ᐖ䛾✵㛫ⓗ⠊ᅖ䠄᪥ᮏ䛾䠅㤳㒔ᅪ㻔᭚㟢⠊ᅖ䠅┤᥋⿕ᐖṚ⪅䠄ண᝿䠅㻞୓㻟༓ே඲ቯ䞉↝ኻ䠄ண᝿䠅㻢㻝୓Ჷ✺↛䟿䝟䞁䝕䝭䝑䜽䠄㻯㻻㼂㻵㻰㻙㻝㻥䠅Ⓨ⏕ணᅔ㞴඲ୡ⏺䠄≉䛻㒔ᕷ㒊䠅ୡ⏺䛾Ṛ⪅䠖⣙100୓ே 䠄㻥᭶㻟㻜᪥䠅ឤᰁ⪅䠖⣙3༓3ⓒ60୓ே
᪥ᮏ䛾Ṛ⪅䠖⣙1༓6ⓒேឤᰁ⪅䠖⣙8୓3༓ே඲ୡ⏺㻞ᖺ㛫䛷⣙㻝㻟㻜㻜඙෇䠄㻵㻹㻲㻘㻞㻜㻞㻜ᖺ㻢᭶㻞㻠᪥䠅㛫᥋⿕ᐖ⤒῭⿕ᐖண᝿⣙95඙෇஦ᴗ⥅⥆㤳㒔ᶵ⬟䜈䛾⿕ᐖ㻦㛗ᮇⓗ䛺ᙳ㡪䠇 ඲ᅜ䜈䛾Ἴཬ᪥ᮏ䠖䡚㻥㻜඙෇୙☜ᐇᛶ䛾ቑ኱஦ᴗ䛾ᴗົ㔞䛾ኚືᡓ␎ⓗ䛺஦ᴗ䛾⦰ᑠ䚸᪂䛯䛺஦ᴗᒎ㛤䜢ᶍ⣴5© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience䐠 ༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣䛾ᕧ኱ᆅ㟈䠄㻹㻤䡚䠕䠅 䝟䞁䝕䝭䝑䜽䠄㻯㻻㼂㻵㻰㻙㻝㻥䠅Ⓨ⏕᫬ᮇ䛾ண ྍ⬟ᛶ┤᥋⿕ᐖ䛾✵㛫ⓗ⠊ᅖ㻔᭚㟢⠊ᅖ䠅┤᥋⿕ᐖ✺↛䟿㻟㻜ᖺ௨ෆ䛻㻣㻜䡚㻤㻜䠂᪥ᮏ䛾す༙ศⓎ⏕ணᅔ㞴඲ୡ⏺䠄≉䛻㒔ᕷ㒊䠅ୡ⏺䛾Ṛ⪅䠖⣙100୓ே 䠄㻥᭶㻟㻜᪥䠅Ṛ⪅䠄ண᝿䠅㻟㻞୓㻟༓ேឤᰁ⪅䠖⣙3༓3ⓒ60୓ே
᪥ᮏ䛾Ṛ⪅䠖⣙1༓6ⓒே඲ቯ䠄ண᝿䠅㻞㻟㻤୓Ჷឤᰁ⪅䠖⣙8୓3༓ே᭱ึ䛾ᆅ㟈⤒῭⿕ᐖண᝿䛛䜙䠎᪥䡚䠎 ඲ୡ⏺㻞ᖺ㛫䛷⣙㻝㻟㻜㻜඙෇ᖺᚋ䜎䛷䠄㻵㻹㻲㻘㻞㻜㻞㻜ᖺ㻢᭶㻞㻠᪥䠅㛫᥋⿕ᐖ⣙඙෇஦ᴗ⥅⥆࣭㉸ᗈᇦ࣭㛗ᮇ㛫࡟ࢃࡓࡿ⏒኱࡞ᙳ㡪୙☜ᐇᛶ䛾ቑ኱࣭ᡃࡀᅜࡢ〇㐀ᣐⅬࡢ⿕⅏࡟క஦ᴗ䛾ᴗົ㔞䛾ኚື࠺඲ᅜ࣭ᾏእ࡬ࡢἼཬᣑ኱ᡓ␎ⓗ䛺஦ᴗ䛾⦰ᑠ䚸᪂䛯䛺஦ᴗᒎ㛤䜢ᶍ⣴࣭᚟ᪧ࣭᚟⯆࡬ࡢᙳ㡪኱᪥ᮏ䠖䡚㻥㻜඙෇6© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience⣙䠏䠌ศᚋ༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣ᆅ㟈⮫᫬᝟ሗ䠄ᕧᕧ኱ᆅ㆙ᡄ䠅኱つᶍᆅ㟈䛾Ⓨ⏕ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜┦ᑐⓗ䛻㧗䜎䛳䛶䛔䜛᭱▷⣙䠎᫬㛫ᚋ

¾ ᫛࿴䛾ᮾ༡ᾏᆅ㟈䛾䠎ᖺᚋ䛻༡ᾏᆅ㟈䠍㐌㛫ᚋ¾ Ᏻᨻ䛾༡ᾏᆅ㟈䛿䚸ᮾᾏᆅ㟈䛾䠎᪥ᚋ䠎㐌㛫ᚋ㔅ϋ᧚ࡅί᧸໎ਃ࢘Ẇᵐᵎᵏᵗὸ䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

2020/10/3

7© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceෆᐜ㻝㻚 ୙☜ᐇᛶ䛜ቑ኱䛩䜛᫬௦䐟㤳㒔┤ୗᆅ㟈ᐖ㻦㻌㻹㻣䜽䝷䝇䐠༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣䛾ᕧ኱ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䠖㻹㻥㻞㻚 ᭱㏆䛾ᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䛸䚸㛵ᮾ኱㟈⅏㻟㻚 䜎䛸䜑䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

2020/10/3

8© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience

2018ᖺ9 ᭶6᪥໭ᾏ㐨⫹᣺ᮾ㒊᣺ᮾ㒊῝䛥: 37km,M 6.7 ඲㐨೵㟁Ṛ⪅䠖41ྡ㟈ᗘ䠓䛿䚸ᡃ䛜ᅜ䛷㻢ᅇ┠䛾ほ䛆᭱኱㟈ᗘ㻣䛇
¾ 㟈ᗘ䠓䠖ཌ┿⏫
¾ 㟈ᗘ㻢ᙉ䠖Ᏻᖹ⏫䚸䜐䛛䜟⏫
¾ 㟈ᗘ㻢ᙅ䠖༓ṓᕷ䚸᪥㧗⏫䚸ᖹྲྀ⏫䚸ᮐᖠᕷᮾ༊
໭ᾏ㐨䛛䜙୰㒊ᆅ᪉䛾୍㒊䛻䛛䛡䛶㟈ᗘ㻡ᙉ䡚㻝䜢ほ༓ṓᕷ䠖㻢ᙅཌ┿⏫䠖䠓Ᏻᖹ⏫䠖㻢ᙉ䜐䛛䜟⏫㻦㻢ᙉ䝬䜾䝙䝏䝳䞊䝗䠖㻢㻚㻣ཌ┿⏫䠏䠒ே
©Ẽ㇟ᗇ

2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ20209© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceཌ┿⏫ྜྷ㔝䛾ᅵ◁ᔂ䜜ᆅ㟈๓ᆅ㟈ᚋ©ᅜᅵᆅ⌮㝔䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

2020/10/3

10© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilienceཌ┿⏫䛾᭶ู㝆Ỉ㔞(mm)mmᖹᆒ㝆Ỉ㔞Ẽ㇟ᗇ䝕䞊䝍䝧䞊䝇䛻䜘䜛2018ᖺ᭶ྜィ

250
200
150
10050

*0123456᭶2020/10/3

78910

1112

䠆⤫ィ䜢⾜䛖ᑐ㇟㈨ᩱ䛜チᐜ⠊ᅖ䛷Ḟ䛡䛶䛔䜛

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020

11© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience

1923ᖺ㛵ᮾᆅ㟈᫬䛾ᙉ㢼• 㻝㻥㻞㻟ᖺ㻥᭶㻝᪥䚸㻝㻝᫬㻡㻤ศ䛻㛵ᮾ኱㟈⅏䛜Ⓨ⏕䚹䛣䛾᪥䛻྿䛔䛶䛔䛯ᙉ䛔㢼䛜䚸ⅆ⅏䛾ᘏ↝䜢ᘬ䛝㉳䛣䛧䚸⿕ᐖ䜢኱䛝䛟䛧䛯䚹• ྎ㢼䛜᪥ᮏᾏἢᓊ䜢㐍䜏䚸ྎ㢼䛾୰ᚰẼᅽ䛿ᮅ㻢᫬䛾᫬Ⅼ䛷㻣㻠㻤㼙㼙㻴㼓䠄㻥㻥㻣㼔㻼㼍䠅䚸㛵ᮾᆅ᪉䛻ᙉ䛔㢼䜢䜒䛯䜙䛧䛯䚹• ᆅ㟈䛾Ⓨ⏕┤ᚋ䛾㻝㻞᫬䛻䛿ᮾி䛷༡༡す㻝㻞㻚㻟㼙㻛㼟㻌䛸䚸ྎ㢼䛻྿䛝㎸䜐༡䜘䜚䛾㢼䛜ᙉ䛟྿䛔䛶䛔䛯䚹• ྎ㢼䛜ᮾ䛻㐍䜐䛻㐃䜜䛶㢼ྥ䛝䛿す㢼䚸໭㢼䛸ኚ䜟䛳䛶䚸ኪ䛻䛿᭱኱㢼㏿㻞㻞㼙㻛㼟䜎䛷ᙉ䜎䜚䚸䛣䛾䜘䛖䛻㢼䛜ᙉ䛟䛭䛾㢼ྥ䛝䛜኱䛝䛟ኚ໬䛧䛯䛣䛸䛷䚸ᘏ↝䛾᪉ྥ䛜ḟ䚻䛻ኚ䜟䛳䛶↝ኻᇦ䜢ᗈ⠊ᅖ䛻䛧䛯䚹
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/contribution/weather-chart/005.html.ja
2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ202012䠏䠊䜎䛸䜑
¾ MӍ6.0䛾ᆅ㟈䛿1᭶䛻䠍ᅇఱ䜢Ꮫ䜆䛛䠛
¾ 2016ᖺ⇃ᮏᆅ㟈䠄M7.3䠅

9 䜒䛧䚸㤳㒔ᅪ䛷Ⓨ⏕→ ⏒኱䛺⿕ᐖ
¾ 2018ᖺ኱㜰ᗓ໭㒊䛾ᆅ㟈
9 ᘬ䛝⥆䛟ᙉ䛔ᦂ䜜䠖䠎ᗘ䛾㟈ᗘ䠓
9 ኱㒔ᕷ䛾㟈⅏䠖䝷䜲䝣䝷䜲䞁䚸䜶䝺
9 ⅏ᐖ㛵㐃Ṛ䠖┤᥋Ṛ䠙䠐䠖䠍䝧䞊䝍䞊
¾ 2011ᖺᮾ໭ᆅ᪉ኴᖹὒἈᆅ㟈
9 䝤䝻䝑䜽ሟ䚸ᐙල䛾㌿ಽ
䠄M9.0) -> ༡ᾏ䝖䝷䝣ᆅ㟈
¾ 2018ᖺ໭ᾏ㐨⫹᣺ᮾ㒊ᆅ㟈䠄M6.7䠅
9 ᗈᇦ䛾⅏ᐖ䛻䜘䜛⏒኱䛺⿕ᐖ
9 㛗ᮇ㛫䛾ᙳ㡪
9 㝆㞵䛸ᅵ◁⅏ᐖ
9 㔜せ᪋タ䛾⿕⅏䛸೵㟁
¾ ᴟ➃Ẽ㇟䠇COVID-19 -> ୙☜ᐇ9 5䛛᭶ᚋ䛻䜒ᙉ䛔ᦂ䜜ᛶ䛾ቑ኱䛩䜛᫬௦
2020/10/3

䜌䛖䛥䛔ᅜయ2020© 2020 Naoshi Hirata, National Research Institute For Earth Science and Disaster Resilience13