IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Addressing climate change issues:

An excerpt from Asia/World Energy Outlook 201518 November 2015
TAGAMI Takahiko
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Reference Scenario and Advanced Technologies Scenario
CO2 reduction share in 2050

GtCO2
50

Energy saving
BiofuelWind, solar, etc.
Nuclear
Fuel switching
CCS
Total

4540

GtCO2

Share

8.3
0.2
3.0
2.4
1.4
7.2
22.6

37%
1%
14%
11%
6%
32%
100%

45.9
42.7
省エネルギー
Energy saving

39.5

バイオ燃料Biofuel
太陽光・風力等
Wind, solar, etc.

35.735原子力Nuclear

32.9
33.5

30

燃料転換
Fuel switching

CCS
CCS
Reference
レファレンス

32.6
28.2

25

Adv. Tech. +CCS
技術進展+CCS

23.5

50% reduction by 2050
2050年半減

21.2

23.3

20151990

2000

2013

2020

2030

2040

2050

・ In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the global CO2 emissions are reduced by various
technological options, including energy saving, enhancement of power generation efficiency,renewables, nuclear and CCS. Altogether these options contribute to large CO2 emissions reduction.
・ To achieve halving global CO2 emissions from current levels, additional measures such as innovativetechnological development and eco-friendly urban development are required in the long-term.

2Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) ofmajor countries

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Party

Date ofsubmission

Target type

Reduction target

Base year

Target year

Coverage

EUMar 6

Absolute emissions

40%

1990

2030

GHG

United States

Mar 31

Absolute emissions

26～28%

2005

2025

including LULUCF

RussiaApr 1Absolute emissions

25～30%

1990

2030

GHG

China

Jun 30Intensity per GDP

60～65%

2005

2030

CO2JapanJul 17

Absolute emissions

26%

20132030

GHG

Indonesia

Sep 24

Reduction from BAU

29%

BAU

2030

GHG

Brazil

Sep 30Absolute emissions

37%

2005

2025

GHG

India

Oct 1

Intensity per GDP2005

2030

GHG（43% for 2030）

33～35%

GHG- In advance of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Nov. 2015, the participating

countries have submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which present thepost-2020 climate actions each country intends to take.

- By Oct 1st, 117 countries and regions (totaling 144 countries) have submitted their INDCs.

- The 8 major countries and regions shown above cover 65% of global GHG emissions in 2010.

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Comparison of INDCs with the Reference/Adv. Tech. Scenarios
MtCO 2-eq
70,00060,00050,00040,00030,000
ReferenceAdv. Tech.

20,000INDC
10,000IEA Bridge
50% reduction by 2050

01990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

- The future evolution of global GHG emissions suggested by the INDCs of the 8 parties traces apath similar to that of the Reference Scenario. Thus, climate actions based on the INDCs are notsufficient to reach the Advanced Technologies Scenario, being far behind the target of “50%reduction by 2050.”

4Comparison of INDCs with the Reference/Adv. Tech. Scenarios
by country

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MtCO2-eq

7,000

United States
6,000

6,000

EU

MtCO2-eq

1,600

Japan

MtCO2-eq

1,400

5,000

1,200

5,000

4,000

4,000

1,000

3,000

800

3,000
2,000

2,000

1,000

14,000

2000

2010

2020

China

MtCO2

9,000

ReferenceAdv. Tech.
INDC

12,00010,000

0
1990

2030

8,000
7,000
6,000

2000

2010

2020

2030

1990

India

MtCO2-eq

4,500- Barriers in realizing

reduction potentials- Needs for techtransfer

4,000

2,0003,000

1,500

2,000

1,000

1,000

5000002020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2020

2030

RussiaMtCO2-eq

2,500

2,000
2010

2020

3,000

6,000

2000

2010

3,500

5,000

1990

2000

4,000

8,000

4,000

implementation

200001990- Challenges in400

ReferenceAdv. Tech.
INDC

1,000

- Ambitious EE target

600

2030

- The INDC targets of the United States and Japan are as ambitious as the1990

Advanced Technologies Scenario. The target of EU is also positioned near the ATS.
- The targets of China and India exceed the Reference Scenario in terms ofCO2/GHG emissions.

2000

2010

Note: Japan’s 2020 target does notinclude reduction by nuclear power.
China’s target is for CO2, while others
are for GHG.

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Mitigation, adaptation and damage

GHGemission

Climate change

DamageAdaptation

Mitigation
To reduce or prevent emissionof greenhouse gases.

Tradeoff

To take appropriate action toprevent or minimize the damage
caused by climate change.

Tradeoff-It is necessary to minimize total cost with a optimal balance among mitigation,adaptation and residual damage.

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Mitigation vs. adaptation and damage- Mitigation cost: estimated by IEEJ
- Damage + adaptation cost: calculated using theformula in the DICE 2013R model- If more stringent mitigation measures are
implemented, mitigation costs will increase while“adaptation cost and damage” decrease, and viceversa.
- While uncertainties are still great regarding thesecost estimates, there may be some point at which a
total of mitigation cost, adaptation cost and residual
damage could be minimized between the Reference
Scenario and the scenario for halving GHG emissions
by 2050.

2014 USD trillion/year

1614Total (A+B)
1210Damage +adaptation cost (B)8642Mitigation cost (A)
0-20%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Reduction from the Reference Scenario

2100

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Conclusion: Addressing climate change issues
・ With the climate actions suggested by the INDCs of major countries, it would not be
possible to curb GHG emissions to sufficient levels. It is strongly expected that each party
tries its best to reduce GHG emissions further.
・ On the other hand, international agreement would practically be difficult to achieve the450 ppm mitigation scenarios category.

・ To fill the gap, it is necessary to find a optimal balance between mitigation andadaptation to minimize total cost and residual damage.
・ In addition to that, a longer-term perspective, such as innovative technology
development, is necessary to realize a drastic emissions reduction beyond 2050.
・ Most important is to provide various options other than the 450 ppm mitigation
scenarios category.

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Innovative technology development towards the futureTechnologyNext generation nuclearpower
Limiting CO2 Nuclear fusion
emissionsSpace Solar Power System(SSPS)
Sequestering
Carbon Capture andCO2Utilization (CCU)

Removing
CO2 in theatmosphere

Bioenergy and Carbon
Capture and Storage(BECCS)

Artificial photosynthesis

Overview and challenges
Advanced nuclear technologies under development worldwide,
including fast breeder reactors, high temperature gas-cooled reactors,
molten salt reactors and small modular reactors.
Unlike the conventional nuclear technologies that exploit the energy
released by the fission of heavy nuclei, nuclear fusion makes use ofthe energy released during the reaction (fusion) of light nuclei. This
technology could possibly result in a almost limitless supply of energy,
without producing spent fuels as high-level radioactive wastes.
A system that transmits energy from space-based solar power plants
to the ground in the form of microwaves or laser beams. It cangenerate power stably with almost no influence from the weather.
Major challenges are the technology development and cost reductionof mass transportation to space.
Technologies to capture and use carbon dioxide as industrial
materials, etc. Large-scale processing of CO2 is one of the major
challenges.
Technology to capture and store carbon dioxide released by burning
biomass. If biomass can be regarded as carbon neutral, thistechnology makes it possible to achieve negative emissions. The
availability and scale of BECCS is uncertain and associated withchallenges and risks, e.g. the availability and scale ofafforested/reforested land, a competition with food supply.
A photochemical process to convert sunlight, water and carbon
dioxide into carbohydrates and oxygen. As with the BECCS technology,
it could realize negative emissions. Major challenges include thedevelopment of catalysis and the cost to split water into hydrogenand oxygen.

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IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Thank you for your attention.
The Executive Summary, Annexed Tables and full Presentation
Material of Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 are available in
English at:

http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/421.html

10Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp