Shaping the Future beyond Modernity

Shaping the Future beyond Modernity

International Institute for Advanced Studies (IIAS)

International Institute for Advanced Studies (IIAS) was founded in Keihanna Science Cityin 1984 as an institute for "conduct research for the future and happiness of mankind". Thirty
years later, in 2014, we returned to this original spirit, and discussed intensively "What are thebig issues in the world of the 21st century, and what are the issues to be addressed immediately
at International Institute for Advanced Studies?".

Now, to contribute to solving the serious

problems facing the drastically changing global society in the near future, we have set up
following four programs from 2015 to 2017.

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century- value, system and practice (Principal Investigator: Tateo Arimoto, Vice Director, International Institutefor Advanced Studies)
B: Sustainability of Human Survival- Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100 (Principal Investigator: Takamitsu Sawa, Research Advisor, International
Institute for Advanced Studies)
C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity(Principal Investigator: Ryuichi Ida, Vice Director, International Institute forAdvanced Studies)
D: 30 Year Concept for the Keihanna Science City
(Principal Investigator: Hiroshi Matsumoto, Vice Director, International
Institute for Advanced Studies)

To solve various issues in the global society, how should academic studies, science andtechnology, society, economy, humanity, and near-future cities be?

Can we, human beings,

continue to survive on the Earth with the ways of life and values as we are? We hereby publish
a report on the results of our attempts to transcend countries, organizations, and fields, andhave discussions by people of various positions, to find a new direction towards the future ofhuman beings and the Earth.

Notice: This English report is the translation of its original Japanese report by using machinetranslation followed by post-editing by human translators. In the event of any discrepancies between
this translated document and the Japanese original, the Japanese original version shall prevail.

Abstract of the four Research Programs

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice How should we deal with the difficulties faced by human beings, society and the earth of the 21st century, andtherefore what is the science and technology of the 21st century? There is a serious awareness that the development ofscience and technology through extension and fine adjustment of the current situation will cause a serious crisis in the
lives of mankind, the earth and people.
This study group presents the recognition and the world view of the era of science and technology in the 21st century,
from the viewpoint of people and institution. We describe the thesis from a perspective and summarize some concrete
recommendations and practical examples for change.

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100 In consideration of limited earth, a pressing issue facing humanity, it is obvious that the relentless pursuit of wealththrough modern capitalism will lead, if unchanged, to the depletion of global resources, an increased wealth gap, andthe swift extinction of the human race. As such, it is necessary for us to go beyond our concept of progress anddevelopment, build a stable, recycling economy and a sustainable society, reduce the wealth gap as far as possible, andcreate a society that guarantees a cultural lifestyle.
This study group will paint the picture of such society and discuss what needs to be done to make a smooth transition
into it.

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity
This study group was established with the goal of returning to the dignity of human beings while respecting tolerance,cooperation, and the spirit of reciprocity, and building values for peaceful co-living. We examined ideas and elementsthat would form the basis for presenting the factors for achieving peaceful co-living, arising in Japan, as an index.
We will further refine the index elements shown here and the confirmation method of their effectiveness, and then will
construct a concept of a world of peaceful co-living, based on the existence of diverse values, to disseminate from theInternational Institute for Advanced Studies.

D: 30 Year Concept for the Keihanna Science City

*available in Japanese edition only

How cities and/or regions should be in the 21st century. How the International Institute for Advanced Studies (IIAS)
should commit to develop recommendations towards molding Keihanna into a model science city in the future. 30
years has passed since Keihanna’s opening. Taking this opportunity, “Advisory Panel on the Future of Keihanna” havediscussed the future of Keihanna with a long term view to draw 30 Year Concept for the Keihanna Science City.

Table of Contents
A:T R A N S F O R M I N G S C I E N C E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y I N T H E 2 1 S T C E N T U R Y- VALUE, SYSTEM AND PRACTICE - .................................................................................................. 1
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 3
CHAPTER 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCIENCE AND SOCIETY................................................. 5
1. Definition of "science" in this paper ................................................................................................. 6
2. What can "science" do? ..................................................................................................................... 6
3. What is the societal expectation for "science"? ................................................................................ 7
4. In advancing science of the “problem-solving" type ......................................................................... 9
5. Acceptance of science in Japanese society ....................................................................................... 10
6. Part of science that “needs to be fixed," and its means in future society ....................................... 14

CHAPTER 2 EXPECTATION FOR SCIENCE IN RESPONDING TO THE STATE OF THE MODERNWORLD ........................................................................................................................................... 17
1. Changes of the times and science ..................................................................................................... 18
2. The present and the past of science in Japan .................................................................................. 19
3. Changes in the relationship between science and society ............................................................... 21
4. Current state of science in Japan and issues for the government administration in science andtechnology ............................................................................................................................................. 21
5. The future of science in Japan ......................................................................................................... 24
6. Several suggestions ........................................................................................................................... 26
7. Looking back so far .......................................................................................................................... 27

CHAPTER 3 ROLES OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AT THE TRANSITION PERIOD. 29
1. "Transition Period" and roles of humanities and social sciences .................................................. 30
2. Transition example of "storytelling" leading the science and society ............................................ 31
3. Exhaustion caused by “innovation" and SDGs ............................................................................... 33
4. Issues of humanities and social sciences in Japan .......................................................................... 35

CHAPTER 4 THE MEANING IN QUESTIONING POSTMODERN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 37
1. Cause and result ............................................................................................................................... 39
2. Inside and outside ............................................................................................................................. 40
3. Thoughts and actions........................................................................................................................ 41

CHAPTER 5 SCIENCE PRACTICED BY HUMAN BEINGS ............................................................ 43
1. Preface .............................................................................................................................................. 44
2. Cannot focus on the problem ........................................................................................................... 44
3. Humans are living things that can do anything, but cannot do anything ...................................... 45
4. Pass it on to the future ...................................................................................................................... 50

CHAPTER 6 ISSUES FOR UNIVERSITIES AS INSTITUTES FOR BASIC RESEARCH .................... 55
1. State of research work of university ................................................................................................. 56
2. How young researcher training works ............................................................................................. 59
3. Basic research and technology transfer as roles of university ........................................................ 59

CHAPTER 7 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN THE
21ST-CETURY ................................................................................................................................. 63
1. Historical Transformation of Modern Society and Japan’s Position .............................................. 64
2. Historical Transformation of Modern Science and Technology ..................................................... 65
3. Direction of Science and Technology in the 21st Century ............................................................... 69
4. Several Proposals for Japan’s Science and Technology in 21st Century ........................................ 71

CHAPTER 8 THE 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL SOCIETY ................................................................ 75
APPENDIX CONCRETE ACTIONS ................................................................................................ 81

B : SUSTAINABILITY OF HUMAN SURVIVAL- REBUILDING OF VALUE AXIS TOWARDS 2100 - . 87
INTRODUCTION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY ................ 89
Introduction

Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society ................................................ 90

CHAPTER 1 RESOURCE ENERGY ............................................................................................... 97
1. Options for the technology: What is possible now? ......................................................................... 98
2. Renewable energy and future economic development ................................................................... 105
3. Sustainable low-carbon society ...................................................................................................... 111

CHAPTER 2 POPULATION AND FOOD ....................................................................................... 119
1. Population problem of the world .................................................................................................... 121
2. Population problem of Japan ......................................................................................................... 125
3. Sustainability of food production ................................................................................................... 131
4. Sustainable water supply ................................................................................................................ 137

CHAPTER 3 MITIGATION OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...............................141
1. Whether the Paris Agreement will work: Its evaluation and issues .............................................. 142
2. Rethinking the meaning of sustainability ...................................................................................... 153
3. Sustainable cities and transport ..................................................................................................... 158

CHAPTER 4 ANTI-GLOBALISM AND POPULISM ......................................................................163
1. The rise of populism that will threaten the sustainability of human survival............................... 164
2. U.S. administration change and the Paris Agreement................................................................... 169

CHAPTER 5 SHARING ECONOMY; MINIMALISM; ZERO MARGINAL COST SOCIETY ........173
1. Economics of zero marginal cost society ....................................................................................... 174
2. Car sharing and autonomous driving ............................................................................................ 178
3. What is minimalism for? ................................................................................................................ 182

CHAPTER 6 IS ECONOMIC GROWTH EVERYTHING? .............................................................185
1. Sustainability of capital base .......................................................................................................... 186
2. Economic growth and democracy .................................................................................................. 190
3. Limit of market economy ................................................................................................................ 196
4. Artificial intelligence and employment .......................................................................................... 200

C: TOWARDS PEACEFUL CO-LIVING IN A WORLD OF DIVERSITY ..........................................205
INTRODUCTION PURPOSE AND CORE ELEMENTS ..................................................................207
CHAPTER 1 BASIC CONCEPTS .................................................................................................. 211
1. World of diversity ............................................................................................................................ 212
2. Peaceful co-living ........................................................................................................................... 212
3. Towarsa peaceful co-living ............................................................................................................. 214

CHAPTER 2 NEW INDEX FOR PEACEFUL CO-LIVING AND SURVEY PLAN ............................215
1. Objectives of opinion survey ........................................................................................................... 216
2. Features of this survey .................................................................................................................... 216
3. Impact on society this survey can possess and dissemination of data ........................................... 217
4. Survey plan...................................................................................................................................... 217
5. Consciousness survey (questionnaire survey) items ...................................................................... 220
6. Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 220

CONCLUDING CHAPTER A TENTATIVE INDEX FOR MEASURING THE DEGREES OFREALIZATION OF PEACEFUL CO-LIVING ...................................................................................227
Basic philosophy / principle ............................................................................................................... 228
I. Human dignity ................................................................................................................................. 228
II. Belonging to a group and alienation............................................................................................. 230
III. Inter-group relation ..................................................................................................................... 231
IV. Norms for peaceful co-living ........................................................................................................ 232

STUDY GROUP MEMBERS ...........................................................................................................236

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCE STUDIES (IIAS)...................................................238

A:Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century- value, system and practice -Principal Investigator Tateo Arimoto1

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -2

Introduction

3

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -How should we deal with the difficulties facing humanity, society, and the Earth in the 21st century, andfor that purpose, how should the academic studies of science and technology be in the 21st century?
There is a serious awareness that the development of academic studies or science and technology throughextension and fine adjustment of the current state will cause a serious crisis in the lives of the humankind,
the Earth, and the people. Also, there is a great concern as to whether current science and technology and its
direction will give hope to students, and young scientists and engineers. On the other hand, as seen in SDGs,
the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," which the world agreed upon at the United Nations two
years ago, the expectation is getting bigger for science and technology to solve global or local
socioeconomic difficulties.
This study group first presents the recognition of the era and the worldview concerning issues andprospects of science and technology in the 21st century, then describes the discussions and analyses from aperspective of people and institution - a system that promotes innovative changes to scientists as humanbeings and science - from various perspectives of the members, and finally concludes with some concrete
recommendations and practical examples for change.
Given the historically accumulated, enormous number of modern science and technology methods andthe ways in which human resources should be, what we can do as a small group is limited, but we think that
it is important to step into practice now without fear of risk, even if it is small, to network with many othersuch movements inside and outside, and to expand cooperation. We hope that this report will be a medium
for such activities.
This report was written with the following structure by the respective members.
Chapter 1

Relationship between Science and Society - A Discussion on the Future Development of
Science in Japan - Mitsunobu Kano

Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World - Satoru Ohtake

Chapter 3

Roles of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Transition Period - Sayaka Oki

Chapter 4

The Meaning in Questioning Postmodern Science and Technology - Now is the Time to Talk
about “Academic Studies" - Naoki Miyano

Chapter 5

Science Practiced by Human Beings- Emotions that Connect Thoughts - Shoji Komai

Chapter 6

Issues for Universities as Institutes for Basic Research - Hidetoshi Kotera

Chapter 7

Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Century- A New Contract with the Society - Tateo Arimoto

Chapter 8

The 21st-Century Global Society - From the Perspectives of the Past, Present, and the Future- [Overview of Lectures]

1.

Science and technology in the 21st century from the perspective of sustainability science- Monte Cassim

2.

Science and technology, human beings and society in the post-growth era - Yoshinori Hiroi

4

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society- A Discussion on the Future Development of Science in Japan Mitsunobu Kano

5

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Concerning the expectation of versatility, there is a

1. Definition of "science" in this paperFirst, I will clarify the definition of "science" in thislimit in the sense that scientific outcomes almost always

paper.

have the two sides of the good and the bad as one of the“Science” may have various definitions, but thislimits of science. Issues related to medical care andpaper defines it as follows. "Science" as used in thisnuclear energy are probably suitable examples forpaper refers to the acts of 1) “recognizing the question,”talking about the dual nature of science. Both definitely

followed by 2) devising a "new (not yet accepted)

give humans a method of "giving a big influence" onhypothesis,” then 3) gathering “logically related” 4)humans, but if the influence is too strong, it will cause“evidence that is reproducible by others” with respect tohealth problems or death, and if used properly, it will be

the devised hypothesis to prove that 2) is true, and 5)

beneficial. It “is neither poison nor medicine," or “canasking others about this hypothesis and the contents ofbe either poison or medicine." In medicine, a desirable

1

the proof. So, what are the roles of such acts, and what

effect among others is called the main effect, and an

are the roles of those who perform such acts (i.e.,undesirable one is called a side effect. The outcomes ofscientists) and the significance of their presence inscience should also have main effects, and of course,

society?

side effects, in this sense. Therefore, we cannot say that
it will always be versatile towards the desired direction.
Another limitation is the limit of phenomena that a

2. What can "science" do?
Science has been searching for truth so far bymethod that is science can handle. If science is in fact

investigating whether there are any relationships

defined as mentioned at the beginning, it is very

between observed phenomena (correlations), anddifficultwhether there is a relationship of cause and result“reproducible evidence" can be gathered. That is, unless(causal relationship). In this way, science has given a

it is a "reproducible phenomenon," it cannot be acertain explanation in the form of a proved hypothesis

subject of scientific study. However, not all phenomena

to questions concerning various phenomena, such as

in the world are reproducible. Indeed, we can say that

why the color of the sky is blue, why the blood is red,

the life of a human being itself is not completely

when and why an object is easily flammable, how the

reproducible, and is a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon.

growth of a plant changes with what kind of substance,

A phenomenon that a person experiences andand when and why we feel pain. Also, by utilizing,

recognizes at a certain time is basically “limited to that

applying, and combining accepted explanations, “waystime," and is a one-time occurrence caused by theto always reproduce something when a given method is

combination of the following main explanatory factors

followed” have been developed, and because of this, theof the combination of certain genes that a person was

industries have developed as well. Mass-produced

born with, the kind of experiences that the person has

industrial products around us are likely to be productsgone through up to that point in time, and theof these trains of thought.

environment in which the person is placed at that time.

to

deal

with

a

phenomenon

unlessFor these reasons, due to the achievements of giving

Is stating a little bit of probability theory for each ofaccurate answers to various questions and applying

these factors what a method of science can do tothem to produce various products that people desire,

explain such one-time phenomena? For example, it

there is a possibility that people have somewhat had anshould be something of the following extents: if a"expectation that science is universal."certain gene exists, the probability of occurrence of

However, is science versatile? In fact, it’s possible

somethingthat it is not so.

increases(sincethere

aremultiple

individuals having a certain gene); if a person has acertain experience, the probability of occurrence ofsomething1

Ronriteki kangaekata tsutaekata: konkyo ni motozuku tadashii gironno tameni. (Logical Ways of Thinking and Communicating: For
Correct Discussions Based on Grounds.) Mitsunobu Kano. 2016.
Keio University Press.

increases(sincethere

aremultiple

individuals having the same experience, for example
those who have received the same educational content);

6

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society

or if they share a certain period of time, the probability

sick and are at a loss, science which elucidates theof occurrence of something increases. Even in the stage

reason and gives them a coping method that anyone canof estimating the probability, if there are multiple pieces

reproduce must seem like a wonderful existence. Inof data that can be analyzed, difficulty awaits in the

addition to medical care, there are voices in Japan

process of trying to extract samples that can be used to

expecting promotion of science against disasters such

estimate the true population from them.

as earthquake and volcanoes. It should be natural in an

It is suggested that it is very difficult to expect

environment troubled by disasters. In recent years,

versatility from science at least from these two aspects,

sustainable developmental goals (SDGs) by the United

and after the earthquakes in 2011, many Japanese

Nations exist as a summary of “troubles," or in othercitizens no longer expect “versatility,” at least. 2

words, "problems to be solved,” on a worldwide scale.
Alternatively, at the “Meeting of Young AsianScientists" held by the National Young Academy of

3. What is the societal expectation for "science"?
- Science for "problem solving” -Japan, Science Council of Japan, with the support of theSo, what kind of content do people not engaged inInternational Institute for Advanced Studies, which
invited Asia’s regional members of GYA in March 2016,

science want from science?
It should be mainly “useful" activities for those"realizing an inclusive society" and “countermeasurespeople. To guess at what moment they feel it iswith clear effects to realize a sustainable ecosystem"“useful," it is probably when 1) “it gives me what I do

were raised as future issues.

not have now but am longing for (dreams, hopes),” orHow important, as a scientific objective, should

when 2) “it helps me with what I am in trouble with

scientists(solves a problem).”“problem-solving” focus? Voices may be heard saying

considersuchasciencewithaAn interest in a science that "gives me what I do notthat even with “truth-searching" only, science has

have now but am longing for,” such as interests in

produced a lot of results. Let us consider a little more

research on the universe or the ocean,3

on why the “problem-solving" type tends to be

wouldcorrespond to this. Or, some science comics and sci-fi,

considered important in recent years.

so to speak, are loved may be loved for the same reason.

Human beings engaged in scientific activities are just

In a way, I think that expressions that “chase a dream”

one of the sectors that constitute human society.

and “there is a romance” are appropriate, and scientific

Therefore, on the one hand, science and scientists canactivities at present realize this to quite an extent.

be regarded as an answer to the question as to what role

On the other hand, society's support for science “thatthey play as they exist while allowing others to live andwill help me when I am in trouble,” for example, would

being allowed to live in human society.

4

include support for medical research. When people get

There are many reasons why humans dominatedother animals, but there is the idea that the ability to"exchange" can be cited as one reason.5 It is the idea2

For example, Heisei 24 nen ban kagaku gijutsu hakusho. Dai 2 setsu,
kagaku gijutsu seisaku ni towareteiru mono (Section 2, S&T policy atstake. White paper on science and technology 2012).
http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/hakusho/html/hpaa201201/detail/132
2773.htm
3
Kagaku gijutsu ni kansuru kokumin ishiki chousa - 2014 nen 2
gatsu - 2015 nen 10 gatsu kagaku gijutsu no kanshin to shinrai-(Public attitude survey of science and technology - interest and trust
for S&T in 2/2014 - 10/2015). Moritaka Hosotsubo. National Instituteof Science and Technology Policy. Research material; 244. P.9 inparticular. http://data.nistep.go.jp/dspace/handle/11035/3120
4
The same as above. Below are several quotes. [Measures with many
requests are: “promotion of R&D on infectious disease prevention
measures" (57%); “providing information to the general public onnatural disaster prediction measures" (55%); “providing information
to the general public on infectious disease prevention measures"(52%); “promotion of R&D on earthquake and volcanic eruption
prediction measures" (52%), etc. Many were related to infectious
diseases and natural disasters.] ["Science and technology areoccasionally abused or misused" (74%); “danger that cannot be

anticipated is lurking in the use of science and technology" (65%);“government should support scientific research for advancing
cutting-edge academic studies” (65%), etc.] ["Living becomes moreconvenient and comfortable as science and technology progress"(59%); “knowing science in everyday life is important for me" (45%);“it is good for experts who are familiar with the contents of scienceand technology to decide the direction of R&D” (39%).] ["Can trust
institutions and organizations that conduct R&D of science andtechnology" (45%); “can trust the scientific basis of the science andtechnology" (41%); “can technologically control that science andtechnology (39%); "the magnitude of a possible accident" (39%), aresome of the higher ones.]5
Han-ei -- ashita o kirihiraku tameno jinrui 10 mannenshi (The
Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves). Matt Ridley. Translated
by Naoko Ota., Taeko Kajihara., & Hiroyuki Shibata. 2013.
Hayakawa Nonfiction.

7

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -that the human race won prosperity through thethe scientist, and while it could be one that will be

activities of exchanging what they had with others whoshared to society in the future, at times it may not be

did not have it, and having others offer what they did

recognized that way when the scientific activity is

not have if they had it. From this point of view, “what”

carried out. These weak points create great challenges

can science offer to “whom”?

in the following relationship to money.

In other words, it seems useful for people who makes

Money can be thought of as a kind of substitute index

living out of science to think about what they have, andof the "exchange" mentioned above. For example, if

about what they do not have that others have, in

Umisachihiko the Fisherman has two mackerels that hethinking about the role of science in society. I will show

just caught, and Yamasachihiko the Mountain Hunter

what scientific activities “have” from this point of view.

had a heap of mountain vegetables, and if they are what

Does that mean that we will provide "accurate" answers

each of them wants, the exchange should be successful

to “troubles" through thought and data collection?

even without money. However, in this case, if they

However, if it is just about “providing answers tocannot agree on what they consider to be of equivalent

troubles,” not only science but also “solutions" thatvalue, it will be a source of trouble. How manybusiness activities provide to society through alreadybrackens are an equivalent of two mackerels in value?

commercialized services would be a very good example

Money is very useful for making an adjustment here.

of it. Therefore, if there is no differentiation from

Scientific activities cannot be unrelated to money.

“answers to troubles" through existing products andThose engaged in science for living must first nurture

services, we cannot talk about the reason why "science"themselves and their families daily, and also obtainis necessary sufficiently. Taking this perspective into

labor and materials necessary for conducting dataconsideration, can scientific strengths be summarized ascollection activities for their own businesses. Then, we"the possibility to provide more accurate answers toreturn to the question of “what” science can offer tophenomena for which there is no understanding or“whom” in order to obtain the money or funding.

countermeasure"? On a side note, in the history ofFurthermore, in modern environments, this fund isscience being accepted in Japanese society, at least at

mostly covered by government budgets in the case of

the beginning of the transition from the Edo period toscience. In comparison with the time when science was

the Meiji era, it is highly probable that science was an

conducted with self-expenses or funds from patrons

activity that gave the aforementioned "solution" thanamong aristocrats or others, 6 when we think about

created new things on its own. There was a clan, the“what” science can offer to “whom" when using funds

Tsuyama clan, which actively incorporated Dutch

forcibly collected from the members of society, i.e.,

studies in northern Okayama. At the museum exhibitingtaxes, “whom” will be the citizens who are the tax

this accomplishment, I asked, “While I recognize thepayers, and “what” will be the value that only science isimportance of the fact that there were those who

supposed to be able to provide as previously discussed.

pursued Dutch studies, did any of them utilize it to

Even in corporate activities in which they try to raise

create new things?” The answer was no. Of course,

profits by themselves and create jobs, companies are

there have been many who created new things as

required to have an awareness as public institutions ofscientists after that. However, there is room forsociety in recent years.7 Furthermore, in times whenverification as to whether the acceptance surrounding

the financial situations of many governments andscientists by society and the institutions have been

citizens are not good, it should be understandable that

optimized for creating new things.
On the other hand, the "weak points" of science are

6

According to Peter Dear. Chishiki to keiken no kakumei - kagaku
kakumei no genba de nani ga okottaka - (Revolutionizing the Science- European Knowledge and its Ambitions, 1500-1700, second edition).
Misuzu Shobo. 2012., the patrons of the time supported those who
created their own new insights and presented them because it would
eventually raise their own status as an authority.
7
For example: Kigyo navigator (Entrepreneur navigator). Kenichi
Sugano., & Yoshihiko Fuchibe. 2016. Toyo Keizai Inc.

probably that it is hard to make their result easily
redeemable into money, and that it takes time and effort
to provide an accurate answer. In addition, there arecases where the targeted phenomenon is only visible to8

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society

scientific activities in the direction of “giving answers

correctness.” I think that it is impossible to have a

troubles"stronglybalance unless we emphasize the necessity ofemphasized as requests to activities using public funds.

"induction" a little more. From this point on, I believe

and“problem-solving"

are

of

that the importance of the “problem-solving" type“problem-solving type" science, we must not forgetshould be emphasized to balance things, and that tone isabout the value of “truth-searching type" science. This

strengthened also in this paper.

However,

along

with

the

importanceis already well practiced in the current scientificactivities, so emphasis tends to be forgotten in the

4. In advancing science of the “problem-solving"current situation, but unless not only the surface

type

understandingofaI will discuss the current state of medicine facing thecountermeasure but also acts of thinking about thefield of clinics, one which is probably the oldest science

reason why the phenomenon occurred, what theof the problem-solving type. Of the tasks demanded bymechanism is, and what the essence is, pursuing them,society, I think that there is a significance in deriving

and

the

the question of how much of the material aspect is left,“problem-solving type” science exist, the known matterthat is, how much is left that can be answered by thewhich will be the material used for thinking will be"natural scientific approach."systematizingaproblemtheresults

andproposingparalleltoshallow, and the solutions devised by accumulating theI think that one of the reasons why research on

known matters will be shallow. It is also meaningful todiseases, or Western medicine since the 19th century,

use a science of such “truth-searching type" as a venue

was able to develop to this extent is that they treated thefor education. We need to make efforts to cultivate

material and mental aspects of human beings separately,

human resources who try to think about the essence

and kept exploring the material aspect and reproducible

rather than those who only see surface phenomena.

parts. In other words, it was a natural scientific

However, if we quest for this direction too much, theapproach. The reason why anatomy is at the beginningtargets of activities will be too small. Balancing isof a medical department’s education is, while it did notimportant.

come to my mind when I went through it but looking

Theseelements

of“problem-solving"andback, probably because it was meant to make them first"truth-searching" in science do not correspond perfectly

pay attention to the material aspects of the existence ofto this, but they may have some commonalities with thehumans and the material structural commonalities

comparison between "induction" and “deduction."

between individual humans. In addition to the“Induction" is a way of thinking about what kind ofsignificance of decomposing a target problem into

generalization can be made when many observed facts

material and mental elements and further decomposing

are scattered in front of you, and when there is no

the material element into details to make analysis easier,known law, there is no choice but to start with this. Thisasshould be an appropriate method to solve a "problem"

reproducibility is higher than for mental elements, andabout which “you have no idea what to do."there will be a significance of making it easier to reach“Deduction,” on the other hand, is a way of thinking inan agreement by finding some absolute truth by awhich you confirm whether a new phenomenon applies

scientific method. If some kind of material obtained

to existing rules, theorems, and the like, as the premise.

from a patient shows a change in contrast to a

The latter, deduction, makes it easy to see the correct

counterpart material obtained from a healthy person, it

and the wrong, so judgment according to this thinking

is possible to devise a hypothesis that it is someis likely to be preferred in evaluating others. In mymaterial linked to the cause of the disease, and prove it.

impression from spending time in Japan, the balance

It is much easier than establishing a hypothesis by

between 'induction' and 'deduction' is poor, andcomparing behaviors, etc., which seem to be due to'deduction' is dominant from the educational contents,

mental abnormality, to that of a healthy person, and tomaybe because there is an “admiration” for “absolute

prove it.

9

long

as

we

treat

the

material

elements,

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Among the various phenomena surrounding humanestablishedeasily.

Moreover,tosearchforbeings, classification is made roughly between naturalcountermeasures based on problems, academic rigor isscience, and humanities and social sciences, depending

difficult to pursue, for example, compared to the world

on which element is to be focused in practicing science.

of physics. Sometimes it is too much work to simply

Basically, natural science deals with the material. In thisdescribe a problem with data, not just an impression ofcase, it is easy to obtain data as a numerical value, andit; 2) Since there are many problems to which we do not

proof of causality can be easily obtained by anknow how to approach, there tends to be a rise and fallintervention experiment. However, when trying to dealof research methods according to trends; 3) The

with activities brought by higher-order functions ofclassification of fields will tend to be organized byhumans (social activities), it is difficult to turn themproblem or by coping method (for example, by

into numerical values. It will be necessary to deal withapproach such as internal medicine and surgery, or by

so-called qualitative data, and because intervention

organ), and even if a mechanism common toexperiments are difficult, only correlations can bephenomena included in other classifications is found, it

shown, and in many cases, there is no choice but to rely

tends to be difficult to make a move. From the above, it

on inference for causality. The so-called big data canshould be concluded that science that responds toonly show correlation basically, also. Also, to begin

problems is not enough, and that science of thewith, a human being analyzing another human being

truth-searching type is also necessary.

means that there is no way of having an absolute pointof view, and it is inevitable to become relative. 8

5. Acceptance of science in Japanese society

For this reason, to advance science dealing with

Next, I will consider how acceptance of scienceissues of society, it is often not easy to obtain results

should be in Japanese society in the future. I willthat satisfy scientific standards set by those skilled in

discuss this from 1) the aspect of the balance between

natural science. It is not easy to attempt to systematize

emotion and rationality, and 2) the aspect of family

the results of scientific activities in a simple and clear

composition.

way, either. As a result, science of the problem-solving

Let's begin with analyzing the current situation.

type gives the impression that it is not well accepted in

I will divide the aspects of higher-order functions of

the community of scientists who prefer the rigor ofhumans into the emotion and rationality, for the time

discussion, especially with regard to the contents

being. Japanese society has emphasized empathy ortargeting society or higher-order human functions.

emotional aspects in communication. For example, I

However, if we do not go beyond this gap, it will not bethink kuuki o yomu ("reading the air”) means noteasy for scientific activities to get out of “being in thecausing negative emotions to others sharing the9situation, and for that purpose maximizing empathy. In

In addition, a difficulty is foreseeable when sciencesuch a trend, how can "rationality" and its result besilo " of each specialty.
for responding to social problems prospers. Here again,

utilized?

it will be helpful to look at the trend of clinical

They say that human perception generally has the

medicine. This is because clinical medicine is exactly"fast system" and the "slow system."10 The fast system

the “science to respond to the humans’ problem ofis intuitive. It is based on experience and memory,disease." What tends to happen there are; 1) While there

forms an impression, and relies on heuristics. It isis always a problem ahead, and in the pressure ofaffected by emotion. It answers quickly to complicatedhaving to respond to it, the method of coping is notproblems, but it is inaccurate. It has a priming effect,and brings illusion. It is also impulsive and gives anillusion of causality. On the other hand, the slow system

8

Ways of Knowing, Competing Methodologies in Social andPolitical Research, 2nd ed. By Jonathon Moses, Torbjørn Knutsen.
2012, Palgrave.
9
Silo effect: Kodo senmonka shakai no wana (The Silo Effect: The
Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers). 2016.
Gillian Tett. Translated by Nami Hijikata. Bungeishunju.

is logical. Working this system requires attention and

10

10

Thinking, Fast and Slow. Daniel Kahneman. 2012. Penguin.

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society

effort, and it becomes dull if you are cognitively busy

are 1) bbb, 2) ccc, and 3) ddd. On the other hand, also,or tired. Even fatigue and hunger make it dull. However,evidence that does support it are 1) eee, 2) fff, and 3)

intuition can be modified by logic or statistical data,

ggg. However, I thought that this idea was better fromand it has the function of self-control.

the viewpoint of hhh." As you can see, this is theThen, this can mean that what Japanese society has

prototype of scientific thinking or argumentation. On aemphasized more is utilizing the “fast system," whileside note, in the United States, in the 19th century,

what science aims for is to make efforts to make thiseducation was not provided with respect to the"slow system" work.

discussion type which required more complicatedAccording to Kahneman, the content of the slow

thought, and because of its immigration culture, theysystem can be incorporated into the fast system bystarted teaching only up to the simpler persuasion type.

training. Then, scientific thinking can possibly be

The five-paragraph essay is exactly this persuasion

incorporated into the “fast system" by training. If that is

type.

possible, this will be important for “more precise”

Next, I will discuss the current state of family

thinking.

composition. Further considering the factors that

Regarding the techniques of "logical" thinking,determine a person’s relationship with others, I thinkcomposition education can be considered to contributethat the influence of the early childhood before a child

11

The fact-based type of composition education in“remembers anything” is probably great. For example,

Japan is mainly of the type that only arranges events

there is a survey result which says that experiences orthat occurred in the chronological order. "About today's

liking of a particular subject during early schooling

events. I washed my face first, then I ate myhave a large positive influence on the direct effect on

meal...Today was a good day." This is the type. Even

their trust on scientists.13

to it.

when I want a scientific paper written, at times I see

There is a way of thinking that discusses the potentialthat this style is brought in. "About the object. First, I

influence of such human thought from the aspect of

got the finding 1, then I got the finding 2...I did a goodfamily composition. 14 According to this, Japan,

research." However, in Western cultures, at least sinceGermany, Sweden, Korea, and Taiwan are in the “stemthe ancient Roman times, there have already beenfamily" type (at least traditionally). That is, one of theseveral other types included, and training is given forchildren (generally the eldest son) stays with their

12

parents. Parents are authoritative to children, andEspecially noteworthy are the persuasion type and thebrothers are treated unequally. The basic values are

discussion type. Both are the same in the way that thethose of authority and inequality. They are eager tocontents of an assertion are supported by adding the

educate children. The status of women is relatively high.

facts related to the contents of the assertion as the

They are oriented toward order and stability. There arereason. "I think that aaa. The reasons are 1) bbb, 2) ccc,

few changes of the government’s administration. Theyand 3) ddd. So, this idea is correct." The difference isarethat the persuasion type enumerates only the reasonssegmented. On the other hand, the United States, thethat are consistent with the asserted content, whereas

United Kingdom, and France are of the "nuclear

the discussion type lists content that does not support

family" type. In this type, children leave their parents’

the content of the assertion in addition to content thathouse when they become an adult. Parents and theirthinking about which type to select and write.

ethnocentric.

Organizations

areverticallysupports it, and argues that the content of the assertionis still correct. "I think that aaa. Evidence that support it

13

Kagaku gijutsu ni kansuru kokumin ishiki chousa - 2014 nen 2
gatsu - 2015 nen 10 gatsu kagaku gijutsu no kanshin to shinrai-(Public attitude survey of science and technology - interest and trust
for S&T in 2/2014 - 10/2015). Moritaka Hosotsubo. National Instituteof Science and Technology Policy. Research material; 244.
http://data.nistep.go.jp/dspace/handle/11035/3120
14
Sekai no tayosei kazoku kozo to kindaisei (La Diversité du monde:
Famille et modernité). 2008. Emmanuel Todd. Translated by
Fumitaka Ogino. Fujiwara-shoten.

11

Ronriteki kangaekata tsutaekata: konkyo ni motozuku tadashii
giron no tameni. (Logical Ways of Thinking and Communicating: For
Correct Discussions Based on Grounds.) Mitsunobu Kano. 2016.
Keio University Press.
12

http://www.suepalmer.co.uk/education_publications_skeletons_non_fi
ction.php11

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -children are independent of each other. Their basic"rationality" and its result utilizable from now on invalue is freedom. The status of women is high (because

Japan?

the husband and the wife are equal). They are not keen

To begin with, it is necessary to train people how toon their children's education. They prefer individualism

set goals (agenda) for them to have their own content ofand free economy. Mobility is high. By the way, inassertion. Where can we find a problem to cope withcomparison, it says that the former communist regions,from phenomena around us, and find a question? Can

such as China and Russia, are categorized as thewe extract and organize it? To be able to do this training“exogamous community family” type. All sons remain

based on intrinsic motives, it is necessary to think about

with their parents to make a large family. Parents are

how we can set up the “exhilaration (excitement)." Theauthoritative to children, and brothers are equal. The

opportunity to start a “troublesome," rational activity

basic values are those of authority and equality. They

should be when emotions and empathy “move you.”are not keen on their children's education. The status of

When do we feel that we have a dream? Do we feel

women is generally low. They have a high affinity withmotivated for things that are unreachable, such ascommunism which is currently being practiced. Of

settings related to the universe, or what is likely tocourse, Todd himself admits that it is impossible to

make us better, like achievement of what we hope for?

explain all social phenomena from this point of viewalone.

For

example,

Japan

are

about verifiable reasoning (i.e., it can be agreed upon

traditionally both of “stem family" type, but Japanby others; the aforementioned persuasion type), and inemphasizes

while

addition, for thinking about both pros and cons as

Germany emphasizes frankness, and these influence thecomprehensively as possible (i.e., the aforementioned

ways in which these societies are. However, I have thediscussion type). Training for such reasoning is an issue

impression that this view captures the structure ofof types of composition, and the training does not havesociety quite well.

to be done in English but can still be done in the native

consideration

andtowardGermany

Next, I suggest that training is necessary for thinking

others,In Japan, which currently seems to be rapidly

language of Japanese.

transitioning from the “stem family" type to theAlso, I think that the training of this way of thinking"nuclear family" type in many ways, it seems possible

seems to be the content which higher education,

to predict to some extent how the social structure will

especially graduate school education should support,change. However, in current Japan, not all the patterns

given the current state of Japan where elementary,

mentioned above apply. The current situation in Japanjunior high, or high schools rarely provide it. This is

is that parents are not authoritarian to their children, but

because small group education at graduate schools withparents and children are not independent, brothers haveresearch labs and seminars can provide the most

become more equal, parents are enthusiastic for theirsuitable opportunity for these thinking methods aschildren's education, and so on. It is heading toward theon-the-job training. Of course, the teachers’ mindset"nuclear family" type while keeping half of the “stemthat graduate school education is conducted for thatfamily" element. As Todd also points this out, because

purpose is extremely important. If this becomes"society has inertia," we should expect it to change overgenerally

decades. It is consistent with this.

established that a graduate school education should be

accepted,thehypothesis

shouldbereceived for the purpose of acquiring the know-how ofThen, based on these, I would like to consider thethe thinking methods necessary for internationalized

future in Japanese society. In particular, what should becorporate activities in recent years.

done to bring motivation in the direction of thebottom-up scientific thinking rather than the top-down

Next, I will consider how values that flow inthinking?

Japanese society can change in the future. The familyFirst, about how coexistence of rationality, andstructure in Japan is changing from the stem family

emotion and empathy should be. How to make

12

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society

type to the nuclear family type 15 in Todd’s words?

emphasis on "public interest" that shares a commonality

Among the characteristics raised for a “stem family,”with this way of thinking is beginning to be talked

the points that one of the children (generally the eldest

about by other experts.18 However, if Japanese societyson) remains with the parents, parents are authoritative

becomes one of the "absolute nuclear family" type asto their children, and brothers are treated unequally, aredefined by Todd, and "selfishness" is strengthened andrapidly being lost with the younger generations. As

the emphasis on "altruism" becomes difficult as a whole,inference, the value of society changes accordingly, andit may be one idea to formulate a system that facilitates

if it does, the value of community building will need tovolunteers among independent individuals to performbe reorganized. For example, the relationship between

altruistic activities with their individual intentions

teachers and students at the place for school education“separately." Also, in the American culture thatwas probably one of the form in which teachers, likened

prioritizes rationality in addition to being a "nuclear

as parents, had authority, and students, likened as

family" type, the fact that a book arguing for thechildren, had respect for them, but in recent years, thisimportance of "virtue" and "personality" 19 was sold in

way of thinking is being lost rapidly. However, in thea large number gives an important suggestion on humansense of the speed of change, as described above,society.

because “there is inertia in society," a change will occur
for the first time after over decades, or even after

Here, I will dig deep into my analysis of "altruism"

generations when the number of people who “haveas in motivation to conduct science. Especially I willthought it natural since they were born" increases.

16

discuss the way science supported by public funds

Amid this change, I will present a "re-recognition ofshould be. I have the impression that the current

the value of altruism" as a feasible proposal. In otherscientific evaluation index in Japan tends to lean toward

words, it is a suggestion to recognize what public

what is easy to be commercialized, that is, what willmeans.

yield an economic benefit quickly, or what everyone

The "nuclear family" type is said to head towardwants to use right now even if they have to pay money.

individualism, but if this involves strengthening of

A purchaser (a company or an individual) comes out to“selfishness," the power to support society as a

the science with a short-term “altruistic" purpose andcommunity will naturally weaken. Amid this, however,

the result thereof. Therefore, it agrees with the current

we must redefine the way society should be in which a

index. However, there is much tendency to contributelarge number of people live together. Here, thefunds to such subjects which are easy to understand andredistribution of the concentrated resources (e.g.,

explain. Then, what should we do about targets which

wealth) makes it difficult for the resources to gather, buteveryone understands the necessity to grapple with but

the importance of supporting what is necessary as athat does not pay their own money immediately? For

human group (society) will be re-recognized.

17

The

example, in the past there were examples such as the
Newtonian dynamics, Linnaeus' plant classification,
Darwin's theory of evolution, Wegener's continental

15

According to Todd, the "nuclear family" type can be divided into
two. They are the "absolute nuclear family" indifferent to the brothers’
equality, and the "equality-oriented nuclear family" type where thebrothers are equal. This difference is said to emerge as a difference inacceptance of immigrants. The equality-oriented nuclear family arriveat universalism, and immigrants are not regarded as essentiallydifferent people. Absolute nuclear families and stem families arrive at
differentialism, and regard immigrants as different ethnic groups. I
think that Japan is shifting toward an absolute nuclear family type thathas no concern about the difference between the eldest son and therest? That is, it seems to be pursuing the American type.
16
After all, it will proceed like a "paradigm shift." Paradigm shift:Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Second
Edition, Enlarged, 1970, Chicago University Press
17
I will list the following report as an example regarding dementia,
one of the social issues. Ninchisho ni okeru kokusaitekina
sankangaku no renkei taisei (PPP) no kochiku to katsuyo no tameni:
mendan hokoku oyobi teian (For building and utilizing international

drift theory, and Schliemann's Trojan excavation. Even
if some value was recognized on the spot, did anyone
think that they could invest their money on the spot?
collaborative system of industry, government, and academia (PPP)
regarding dementia: Interview report and proposal). Mitsunobu Kano.,
Shunpei Komura., & Ken Aoo. 2017.
http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~GHIPP/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PDF 統
合 1.pdf
18“Koeki” shihonshugi: eibeigata shihonshugi no shuen ("Public
Interest" Capitalism: The End of the British-American Capitalism).
George Hara. 2017. Bunshun Shinsho.
19
The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. Stephen Covey. 2004.
Simon & Schuster. "15 million copies sold."13

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -From this point of view, I think science of medium toof a scientific community needs detailed study, as does

long-term "altruistic" purposes may not be sufficiently

the emergence of the crises that may be induced by

supported by the current measures or systems. On therepeated failure to make an anomaly conform.”other hand, however, there may be an aspect that
Now, what is becoming an “anomaly (contradiction)"requires caution as to whether it is sufficiently

whose internalization cannot be avoided for “methods"

distinguished from the science of "selfish" purposes.
The activity of science is one in which, once again, aof science? How will the consistency as a system(new) method that no one could think of but can becollapse if it remains in the current state?

pursued by anyone once it is shown (reproducible), andFirst of all, as stated so far, the background is that

leads to solution of a certain problem or elucidating aregarding the fact that scientific outcomes are widely

mystery. Therefore, it can solve or elucidate a problem

used in general and the consequent expectations for andor mystery of others (society) in a generally acceptablepublic investment in the outcomes (however, we cannot

way. So, I think that we can say that medium tosay with certainty that this expectation and investment

long-term science will eventually arrive at being

are intended for the long road of verifying a hypothesis,"altruistic" and meet "public interests."

which is a steady process that science goes through, andThis discussion is also directed toward a discussion

the tendency to expect output is as already stated), aof how to evaluate science. That is, when there arepoint can be made that a conflict has arisen in themultiple research projects which are subjects ofacademics seen from the society’s side as well as inevaluation, a question arises as to how to decide thesociety seen from the academic’s side.

winner and the loser. When evaluated based on the

From the viewpoint of seeing academics fromresearch method, it will be necessary for them to satisfy

society’s side, there are the following issues. Society

all the quality requirements of the existing related fields.

expects contribution of science (outcomes) to social

This is very harsh on new fields. When this method isissues that cannot be solved without transcending

taken, only existing science will win. Then, how about

conventional disciplines. However, it is difficult tomeasuring them based on motivation?

If onlyafford investment that are necessary from a long-term

motivation is measured, it will be relatively easy, but if

perspective rather than a short-term one. On the otherit is not accompanied by evaluation of the content, thenhand, from the viewpoint of seeing society from thethe party that “just tried saying as much as they could”

academics’ side, as previously mentioned Kuhn stated,

will end up winning this time. It’s difficult. One thing

while there is a propensity for general human beingsfor sure is the need for humility in evaluation. Or, it isincluding academics to strengthen existing systems

the need for a critical spirit against themselves,rather than seeking new ones, it is difficult to receive

meaning the recognition of "limits" in their activities in

acceptance when trying to create a new system to deal

that they are not perfect. Moreover, it is necessary towith an issue. When you do try to create one, arecognize clearly what is the “limit." It is because"paradigm shift" is just what is required. Furthermore,

without this, we would not be willing to evaluate whatsociety’s expectations for "outcomes" of science areis different in a positive way, and cooperation would

strong, but understanding of and entry into the process

not be successful.

of science, that is, the moves to pursue scientificthinking are far from sufficient. In addition, it is

6. Part of science that “needs to be fixed," and its

difficult for society to make a necessary investment

means in future society

from a long-term perspective rather than a short-term

According to Thomas Kuhn's extremely famous bookone. For this reason, when a scientist is headingon “paradigm shift,” The Structure of Scientifictowards solving a social issue in an effort to fulfill their

Revolutions (Second Edition, Enlarged, 1970, Chicago"duty" accompanying the "freedom" that they get, even

University Press), “...the manner in which anomalies, orif the issue is visible from the scientist’s perspective, itviolations of expectation, attract the increasing attention

may not be visible to society, and a “difficulty" of not

14

Chapter 1 Relationship between Science and Society

being able to finance their activity can arise.

of Sex includes: "that parents have equal determinationrights within their family," “that both sexes can receive

Then, concerning such anomalies, in what direction
will it be desirable for a change occur in the future?

education at school and can choose what to learn," and“that choice of work is not affected by gender,” among

In thinking about this, we will divide the principles
of human behavior roughly as follows:others. Of course, among these directions, there are

System 0: Layer for survival and maintenance of thethings that depend on family structure, educational

species

content, and social norm at the time of growing up,

System 1: Layer for emotion, motivation, action, andamong others, but as a result of human evolution,

waitingalmost all human beings seem to be commonly aware

System 2: Layer for logic, sociality, and long-termof many of these items.

prospects

Here, I will set a question of what kind of otherWe will first place this insight in the background that

person human beings in general would want to support.

20

Isn’t this exactly the other who contributes to the

The problem is that the actions that each system aims

improvement of the aforementioned "4S" of themselves,for do not match in many cases. How to balance them isor of the group that includes them? In particular, it is

an issue in every culture. Regarding their balance, it issaid that a country that has achieved and become "asaid that the standards of measuring the "good or bad"society that creates new things and can accept thoseis 4S (1. Survival; 2. Sex, including gender balance etc.;

new things without being able to maintain its

3. Security, i.e., “defense” which is more proactive thanestablished interests" will continue to prosper.22 If that

Safety; and 4. Success), and whether they can be

is done using science, it would be appropriate to“improved” means a "better environment = ansupport that science as well. Concerning the possibility

human behavior is divided into these stratified layers.

environment which you want to move to."21

that the method must be science, or for example, that it

For reference, in Success, for example, some of the

could be art or others, in general, if a good way to better

items listed are: "tolerance for change," “quality ofensure the accuracy of new information for an unknown

work and ability over nepotism and inheritance,"phenomenon is required, I think we can answer that

"importance of the current moment, not the afterlife,"

science is appropriate. For example, I think the rise of“efforts over stability," “curiosity over lethargy,” “thatscience was in parallel with reflection on the time when

having a dream is evaluated positively and it is put into

religion was dominating society.

action,”educationalThen, in that case, can the science that is supported

environment,” and “freedom over fate.” In Survival,“dynamicandcreative

be of any quality? That is, what is the essential element

some of the listed items are: “solid investment in art

that should not be conceded by science (an element

culture," "knowledge and research over superstition,"

without which science would not be science) when seen

“dialogue over one truth," "science over faith," "respectfrom the science’s side? First, what is important is thefor diversity," “questioning the maintenance of thefreedom of content of a "question" based on thestatus quo," and “prizing how to learn over what to

intuition of the scientist, which is the root of alearn." In Security, “legislation of freedom rather than“hypothesis." Without a question, essentially scientificprohibition," “culture of trust and respect," “power ofactivities would not start. After that comes theunity towards a common crisis," “having opportunities

importance of the method. As stated as the definition atfor economic independence," “that taxation is effective

the beginning, it means to make efforts to maximize theand its use is efficient," and so on, are listed. The item

accuracy and reproducibility of the information(evidence) used to support the hypothesis (or more

20

On a side note, if I dare to name them in association with theiranatomically corresponding parts of the brain, it would be 0. brain
stem and basal ganglia; 1. limbic system; and 2. cerebral cortex, but
their forms and functions do not always match.
21
Move up: Why some cultures advance while others don’t. C
Rapaille and A Roemer, Penguin Books, 201622

Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty.
Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson. 2013. Profile Books Ltd.
(Japanese version: Kokka wa naze suitai surunoka (Vol. 1) & (Vol. 2):
Kenryoku, han-ei, hinkon no kigen. Hayakawa Nonfiction. 2016.)

15

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -broadly, materials for thought). Also, the accuracy of

public benefits. Therefore, science should have a role,

the logical relationship between the information andas a member of society, to head together toward

hypothesis is of course also necessary. Next, when wegrappling with the challenges facing human society.

tell this to others, I think we can answer the question of

Also, while recognizing the limits of scientific methods,

whether the form of academic paper is necessary in

I believe it is desirable to share its strengths andscience by saying yes, if there is another good way of

methods "to create new things more accurately" withsecuring

the changing society.

theaccuracyofthecontents

tobecommunicated. However, even in the current formal
framework of the academic paper, I think that thebackground explanation may contain more passion or
emotion toward the theme. On the other hand, I hearthat a method of attempting to communicate a result in
the form of literature has also begun. 23
And what is most important is, because science is ahuman activity, human beings themselves, that is,human resources to advance science. In other words,
from the viewpoint of raising science to prosperity torespondtosocialissuesinparallel

with

the

truth-searching type of science, it is necessary to makethis field “attractive,” that is, to design a system thatmakes competent human resources to want to enter thefield. Particularly relevant is what scientists can feel it
is Success with what. What can define Success inscience? Currently, is it achievement by papers, or acommendation of that? Or, is it sufficient funding
necessary for an activity? It should not be the amount ofmoney per se. Does it include the degrees of social
contribution, justice, and goodness? However, we needto continue to think about how we can measure andpromote these.
7. Summary
This paper discussed the background behind and thereasons why science in modern society has come tostronglyrequireproblem-solving

the
type,

transdisciplinary,
not

only

the

or
formerdiscipline-based, or truth-searching type. It also
discussed its method and targets, and the way thesociety’s side should change.
Science is originally one of the activities in humansociety, and in particular the modern science sector is in
the position of a public entity receiving support of
Uwe Flick. Shitsuteki kenkyu no “shitsu” kanri -- SAGE Shitsuteki
kenkyu kit 8 (Managing Quality in Qualitative Research - SAGE
Qualitative Research Kit 8.) shin-yo-sha. 2017.
23

16

Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World
Satoru Ohtake

17

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -1. Changes of the times and sciencesolved, for some, matters are made worse in other1-1. Change of the times

aspects. Furthermore, there are many things that are

Today's world is changing rapidly. With thedevelopmentof

information

communicationcommon not only in one region or country but on theandglobal scale. Human beings have developed rapidlytransportation means, people and information travel

since the previous century, and have deprived thearound the world, people and countries are connectedresources called Earth along the way. As a result,with and influenced by each other, and as a result, theysustainability is argued for so that human beings canare changing increasingly rapidly. Although it is stillreconcile complicated problems on Earth to survive innecessary to improve the state of poverty and bad living

the future. The times have become aware of the limits

environments, nevertheless the average living standardof the planet called Earth, and the search has begun forof the world as a whole has dramatically improved

the future of human beings who can only live on thiscompared to the level of the previous century, which

one planet. In response to such common global issues,

will further bring about change.

the United Nations adopted the "2030 Agenda for

For citizens constituting modern society, especially in

Sustainable Development (SDGs)" unanimously indeveloped and emerging countries, the knowledge and2015, and the SDGs are an example of a condensation

intellectual levels have improved with the spread ofof the change of the times and its accompanying issues.

democracy and education, and consciousness toward

Today, when complex issues surrounding the world,society and the world is getting higher, not just theirand the latest science and technology have come torequests for the minimum standard of living.

influence even human society and people's ways ofIn addition, with the rapid progress of ICT, various

living, expectations for science, in the broad sense

kinds of information have become available, bringing

including social sciences and humanities, are great

about a great innovative change to the state of society.

towards solving the problems. It is a natural request

The progress of science and technology made possible

from the people’s standpoint that science make full use

things that could not have come to our mind in theof the accumulation of knowledge and experience so far,previous century, and the changes brought about by it

mobilizing all necessary fields, to contribute to solving

can at times overturn a previously held common sense

the issues facing human beings today.

or value. For example, the progress of information andcommunication technology has brought about the

1-2. Changes in the science in the world

convenience of being able to obtain a large amount of

Science has long been dominated by experts

information instantly wherever we are, but its

exclusively engaged in research, publishing the results

downsides are the question of how to obtain thein the form of papers, etc., to give back to society.

necessary information from a large amount ofHowever, in the Budapest Declaration of 1999,

information, and in some cases, that only thescientists themselves greatly changed the perception of

information that we like or are interested in is

the science’s position. The conventional mainstream

transmitted to us due to the development of artificial

thinking is placed first as "science for knowledge," butintelligence, and the convenience of informationin addition to this, "science for peace," "science forcollection may conversely prevent us from acquiring adevelopment," and “science in society, science forwide range of information. Modern people who becomesociety” were written as three important roles of science

uneasy without a smartphone are examples where ways

along with “science for knowledge.” The roles ofof society are changing due to the development of ICT.

science included in the Budapest Declaration made a

On the other hand, while there are many challenges

major change in the future direction of science. Whenfacing modern society, their characteristics are that they

considering scientific contributions to the 17 goals

are diverse and complicated. Many of these are difficult

listed in the SDGs, the source of many of them is foundto solve with past methods of coping, for example, within the Budapest Declaration. The Budapest Declaration

one piece of technology alone, and even if one aspect is

captures the roles of science from a high perspective in18

Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World

relation to society while foreseeing the social problems

On the other hand, looking at the challenges facingof the 21st century.

contemporary society, what one field of science canFurthermore, in the 2010s, the trend of open science

respond to is limited, and even if a scientific field canbecame prominent. Scientific papers compiling researchsuggest a coping method, there is a possibility that it

results were mainly distributed among experts and used

can bring about a new issue. So, we cannot reach anin the form of subscriptions to journals. However,

optimal solution unless, while having a holistic view of

research published as papers is often done using public

the issue, we bring in wisdom of multiple scientificfunds, and open access has been advocated that allows

fields together, and moreover, consider the social

anyone to read them freely. In the background there

conditions other than science. For example, theseem to be the rising prices of journals, an increase of

relationship among water, food, and energy arepeople among the public with a strong interest in

mutually related (Nexus). For example, when an

science mainly in developed countries, and theirattempt is made to secure clean drinking water, it will

enhanced

These

lead to a large consumption and scrambling with foodmovements further have led to the open data as well,

production over energy. In anticipation of future, if 70

requesting disclosure of data obtained in the researchto 75% of the world's population lives in urban areas inprocesses. In addition to the consciousness that the2050, it will also have a strong relationship with urban

product of research using public funds belongs toproblems

society, open data, like open access, reflects the fact

popularization of a new medicine to the society, it willthat research per se also needs enormous funds andnot remotely be popularized only by considering its

facilities, the awareness of scientists who wish tosimple scientific efficacy, but it must start with

conduct research efficiently and effectively by effective

consideration of the effects and adverse effects, and theutilization data, and the idea that it will be a

impact of the pricing on the social insurance system,

countermeasure

among others.

consciousness

againston

theirresearchrights.

fraud

such

as

fabrication of data.

as

well.

Also,

when

considering

Until now, the importance of collaboration between

The trends of open access and open data largely leads

fields, i.e., an interdisciplinary approach has been

to open science, which includes participation of the

advocated, but in addition to that, it is now required to

public in scientific research. This drastically changes

have a transdisciplinary approach with viewpoints otherthe ideas which have lasted for 350 years that science

than those of science.

belongs to the scientists who specialize in research, andthat while the results are presented in the form of a2-2. The past of science in Japan

paper, the data obtained in the process are those of the- establishment of engineering departments -scientists. Now that the public is participating in theTurning to Japan's past, when modern science wasworld of science, scientists will also have to pay more

introduced into the country along with the country’s

attention to society and its requests.

opening at the time of the Meiji Restoration, not only
basic

scientifictheories(mathematics,

physics,

2. The present and the past of science in Japanchemistry, biology, etc.) but also engineering was

2-1. Request for switchover to transdisciplinarity

constructed as an academic discipline that dealt with

Journal Nature posted a feature in March 2017

real social issues far more systematically than Westernexpressing a concern for the decline in quality ofengineering schools did, whose exclusive purpose wasscience in Japan, but at present it is still high comparedskill acquisition, by first launching the Imperial College

to the world’s standard. However, it has been pointedof Engineering and then engineering departments atout that, while the standards of individually establisheduniversities ahead of the world.

disciplines

such

as

electronicengineeringandOriginally,

in

the

Edo-period

Japan,

variousmechanical engineering are high, it is weak intechniques such as surveying, construction of castles

cooperation between fields and creation of new fields.

and bridges, and the like, were remarkable, but in basic

19

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -science, only physics as “natural philosophy" whichuse, the government formulated a policy to adapt thetried to understand the existence of nature, astronomy

new technology born this way, and a step was taken

which tried to understand the movements of theforward. This flow ran smoothly through the network ofcelestial bodies, and Japan’s traditional mathematics

human resources consisting of graduates of engineering

were noticeable. Among them, it is said that in physics

departments. I think that it was university engineering

they studied more of a natural philosophy, and tried todepartments that were the center of this.

introduce knowledge of Western science while linking

In terms of science, while the basic academics wereit to Eastern philosophy. Because of this, it did not lead

analytical, the practical studies of engineering wereto establishment of a system like that of Western basic

integration-oriented, aiming at solving real world

science,

problems,

which

was

writtenwithmathematicalhence

supporting

Meiji’s

policyofexpressions. Astronomy also developed discussions on

industrialization promotion, and the postwar rapid

thegrowth. I think we can say that the fact that they did not

basis

of

intermittently

introduced

Westernknowledge, but it was rather utilized for creating maps,

simplyintroducethestate-of-the-art

technology

etc. Also, it is said that the traditional mathematics were

resulted in a creative science different from the basic

highly oriented toward practical use, focusing on

science up to that time.

numerical calculation. Such a historical background can

When American sociologist Ezra Vogel released

be considered as a foundation that made it possible to"Japan as Number One" in 1979, the shock must haveestablish a “Department of Engineering." It was abeen great in the United States, which boasted being theJapanese spirit with a Western wisdom, or blending ofworld's number one in everything. This was the same inJapan and the West in a good sense.

the field of science, and the National Science

Then, the education, it is said, was composed of theFoundation launched the Engineering Research Center

three stages of preliminary basic education in the first(ERC) program in 1984. This was done in response to

two years, specialized education and some practicalthe unprecedented challenge towards the industrial

field application in the following two years, and on-sitecompetitiveness of the United States, promoting

training in the final two years, maintaining a balanceinterdisciplinary research at universities to develop

among theories, academic exercises, and applied

human resources to attempt at improvement by leaps

training on-site, according to the curriculum created byand bounds, and at the same time to establish a center

the Briton Henry Dyer, the first principal of theleading to the development of new industries. This was

Imperial College of Engineering (Yoichiro Murakami.

precisely a movement consistent with the idea in

Kogaku no rekishi (History of Engineering). Humanestablishing a department of engineering in Japan. It

resources who had graduated from a department of

can be said that engineering departments have taken theengineering spread to government-owned industries

spotlight in the United States after 100 years or so sincewhich

the foundation of engineering departments in Japan.

wereindustrialization

the

key

players

to

catch

up

in

West,

Another thing to consider is that the presence of thegovernmental and public offices in charge of national

colleges of National Institute of Technology has been

policies,orpart of the system that supports the engineering anduniversities, among others. There, it is thought that a

industries in Japan. At these colleges, after graduation

network of human resources that were centered on afrom junior high school, mainly specialized education iscertain engineering field was formed naturally, andconducted for 5 years. Since education is provided byeducation, research, policy, and industry formed an

professors, associate professors, assistant professors,

ecosystem as it would be called today. In other words,

etc., unlike vocational schools that merely aims at

when a person who had acquired the latest engineering

acquiring skills, education of higher quality is provided,and practiced it at an industrial site, and if an issue

and graduates play active part as high-level technicians.

arose, a university devised a new theory to overcome

It seems that they have supported Japan's industry as

the issue, a laboratory tested up to the point of practical

people that support Japan’s first "engineering" systemgovernment-owned

withpromotingthelaboratories,

20

Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern Worldin complementary relationship with human resources

logical thinking is necessary, and science provides its

who have graduated from an engineering department.

foundation.
In Japan, I don’t think that these ideas are fully

I think that the idea that established the system called"engineering" with Japan as its origin has not lost its

rooted.

light even today.

There seems to be two things in the background.
One is, as discussed with the basic science in the Edo

3. Changes in the relationship between science andperiod, Japan has a natural philosophy-type historicalsocietyand cultural climate, just as with the "eight million

Now, while the system called "engineering" can begods," there is a temperament to consider it good tocalled an invention of Japan, has science as a whole

accept nature as it is. In addition to that, I think thattaken root in Japan?

because it was an agricultural society that maximized

Today, science has penetrated every corner of society,the group interests through the harmony of its members,

and the present society can no longer be complete

it did not adapt to the culture of going back to thewithout utilizing the principles and results of science.

principle to clearly explain everything, and for thatOn the other hand, in developed countries like Japan,

purpose having a discussion. This is different from thethe standard of living has improved due to economic

Western society that tries to elucidate the providence ofdevelopment, the citizens' intellectual levels havenature that God created to approach the Almighty God

improved conspicuously as a result of education, andin the monotheistic world, and the ways of thinking of

more people now understand various things and havemodern science which were nurtured there.

opinions.

Secondly, there is a point that scientists have been

However, unlike in the West where science has aregarded as a special existence that is detached from thelong history and is deeply rooted in society, in Japan, it

floating world. Even 15 years after the World War II

is doubtful whether the very existence of science orended, in 1960, the university entrance rate was 10.3%

scientific thinking is respected and awed by Japanesewith the rate for the junior colleges combined, and forpeople. Considering the history of the introduction of

the natural sciences, the rate was even lower at about

science since the Meiji Restoration, it seems that many

30% of that. It seems that people had the idea of science

Japanese understand it to have brought benefits that led

as being for some geniuses, which created the longto practical use.

distance between the everyday life and science.

Except, if we see Japanese people’s reactions to

However, as stated earlier, this is changing rapidly.

successful outcomes of basic science such as Nobel

Today, Japan has achieved rapid growth and material

Prize being awarded as represented by the case of Dr.

affluence, but in society there is a feeling of entrapment

Hideki Yukawa after the World War II, and the Subaru

and anxiety about the future. Amid this, I think that as

Telescope, admiration for science is not nonexistent.

long as the Japanese people's current understanding of

While science provides a process of thought toscience remains intact, and if science cannot giveachievements

sufficient answers to social issues, people’s trust toward

necessarily have risks and benefits. For example, X-ray

science as a whole, including basic science, cannot be

examination may influence health due to radiation

maintained. At the same time, deepening the awarenessexposure, but it has a possible benefit of finding a moreof people about the depth of science and of the intrinsic

serious disease compared with this probability. We use

relationship between the basic science and human

it because the benefit outweighs the risk. In this way,

beings as intellectual species, thereby deepening thesince it is not possible to say "100% so and so," we canrelationship between science and society, is a task forsay that it is a scientific viewpoint to calmly compare

scientists and the scientific community in Japan.

elucidatevariousthings,scientific

the degree of risk and the magnitude of benefit.
There is a cause and effect for things, and the causal

4. Current state of science in Japan and issues for

relationship can be elucidated to a lot of extent. For that,the government administration in science and21

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -self-evident whether such education is being conducted

technology
Science in Japan has held a high standard in theat Japanese universities today. If university entrance

world so far, and this is still the case now. However,examinations

change,highschoolentrance

looking at various indexes, with the growth in emerging

examinations will change, and I think that education incountries such as China, Japan’s growth rate has been

junior high school can emphasize how human beings

relatively slow. Regarding this, research sites point out

have utilized knowledge, as well as acquiring

the sluggish increase of expenditure on science mainly

knowledge.

by the government, increase of research funds seeking

Moreover,university education has issues inearly results, and reduction of recurring expenses, but isspecialized education above general education andthis true? What about the quality of scientists

science and engineering related universities. Generalthemselves? Even scientists are members of society,education should take time touching upon theand cannot exist independently of society. Have they

fundamental problems such as the relationship between

stopped focusing on changes in the world and society,science and human society including the history of

and are they not confined to their own narrow scientificscience, and scientific ways of thinking. Also, as thefields? As science is an activity in human society, andissues to be handled in today's society are diverse, andits largest supporters are the society and the people,

theirunless we can have a conversation with the society

complicated and deepening, it is also necessary toabout the significance of science and explain it to thecultivate tolerance for diversity, and I want to value thepeople, I do not think that we can get support for

so-called liberal arts. I think that specialized education

science. In the past, scientists were a small number ofshould teach the basics of scientific methodology,

elites, and many people believed in their talents andsetting a theme, constructing a hypothesis, verifying it,

entrusted science in them, so the idea that “you should

evaluating the results, and creating a new knowledge

only trust it, and do not have to know the details" stoodsystem, along with the integrity of the procedure. Thisup, but in today's Japanese society, it rather seems like,should be taught not only in the classroom but also be"If you are to trust it, you should know the details.”

learned as an experience consistent precisely with theOn the other hand, in order to ask people torelationships

withsocietyarebecoming

academic theories that were learned previously. It is

understand science, and for scientific ways of thinking

exactly the idea of when engineering started.

to take root in society, people must also have some

Regarding engineering, I mentioned the possibility

scientific knowledge. Education up to junior highthat a network and ecosystem centered on people wasschool in Japan in fact provides very fulfilling contents,

formed in Japan. I think that the formulation ofand if they are sufficiently acquired, it is said that they

industrial policy was also an important factor in that.

can understand and deal with a variety of issues andToday, when thinking about a new science for thescientific problems that they face in society to afuture of Japan, we must also consider how themoderate degree. However, Japanese education tends tocorresponding administration should be.

be focused on university entrance examinations, with a

It was just during the wartime before the World War

high school entrance examination before them, both of

II when the Japanese scientific administration extended

which test how well the materials covered in thefrom policies for scientists to policies for society. Until

previous curriculum have been learned. However,then, the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture

because they are selection examinations, they tend toand its institutions such as the Imperial Academy, thetest the amount of knowledge rather than ask about andpredecessor of the Japan Academy, the Academic

evaluate their ways of thinking about issues. Then, theResearch Council, the predecessor of the Sciencesituation can be one where processes of examining

Council of Japan, and the Japan Society for thevarious ways of coping with practical problems based

Promotion of Science, which allocated research funds,

on scientific thinking are put off until they go to awere promoting academics, that is, science. Then, theuniversity or the real world. Now, it is not necessarily

Cabinet Planning Board participated in the scientific

22Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World

policy for the total mobilization to the Sino-Japanese

century, with these three basic points of "promotion of

War. After that came the Cabinet Technical Institute,science and technology rich in creativity," "harmonious

etc., a system became one of total mobilization ofdevelopment of science and technology, and humanscience during the wartime. Then, with the launch ofbeings and society," and "development with an

the Science Council of Japan after the war, this became

emphasis on international characteristic," as the pillars,

the background behind the ban on military research.

Japan stepped up to create a new science andDetails of science and technology policy after World

technology on its own. In the following year, to steadily

War II are omitted here, but the Allied Forces General

implement Report No. 11, "Science and Technology

Headquarters launched the Science and Technology

Policy Outline," which would be the basis of science

Administration Council (STAC), and positioned scienceand technology promotion policy for the administrative

and technology within the postwar administration. Afterlevel to strive to realize for the time being, as Report

that, in 1956, the Science and Technology Agency was

No. 12.

established, and in 1959, the Science and Technology

After that, the government's science and technology

Council, an advisory body for the Prime Minister, wasbudget expanded by 2 to 3 times by 2000. With theselaunched, and a system of science and technology

budget increases, various measures were widely

administration was created. The report by the Sciencedevised and deployed, and the environment of scienceand Technology Council on the consultation of theand technology in Japan dramatically improved. In

Prime Minister serves as the basis of Japan's science

1995, the Basic Act on Science and Technology was

and technology policy, and 1960’s No. 1 report, "About

enacted. It was decided that the government would

the comprehensive basic policy of science andestablish a five-year science and technology basic plan

technology promotion aiming at 10 years later," set thewith a view on the following ten years, and a five-year

goals of science and technology as driving force ofinvestment target with a view to make the government's

economic society and catching up with Europe and the

R&D investment to 1% of the GDP was also

United States, such as the goal for science andincorporated. The First Science and Technology Basictechnology to reach in each scientific field in 10 years,

Plan decided in 1996 set an investment target of 17

to promote science and technology necessary fortrillion yen within five years, while advocating to solve

economic development and improvement of thevarious problems pertaining to the implementation of

citizens' lives from a long-term perspective. On thescience and technology towards the 21st century.

other hand, a system centered on the departments ofSolving of the issues got underway with activeengineering succeeded and contributed greatly to theintroduction of competitive research funding andsubsequent rapid economic growth. From the latter half

introduction of researchers with fixed terms, and theof the 1970s when the economic society achieved ainvestment target was also achieved.

dramatic development, it was required to achieve the

However, in the 21st century, the government's

catch-up and create new seeds themselves, andfinance became tight, and the budget for science andenrichment of basic research became a major policy

technology

issue. In 1981, the Science and Technology Promotion

reconstruction. Despite accumulation by occasional

Coordination

Sciencesupplementary budget, the investment targets exceeding

Technology Promotion System were newly established

24 trillion yen since the 2nd basic plan have not yet

amid this trend. Report of the Science and Technology

been reached.

Fund

and

the

Creative

remainedlargely

flat

under

fiscalCouncil No. 11 of 1984, "The comprehensive basic

Amid this, science and technology administration

policy of promotion of science and technology based on

repeatedly formulated basic plans seeking various types

the long-term prospect in response to a new situationof creativity, but the method of attempting at new fields

change," aiming at comprehensive development ofand various system reforms with the budget expansion

science and technology which would be the foundation

became difficult, and there was no choice left but toof a new culture and civilization towards the 21st

respond through scrap and build. On the other hand, the23

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -mindset that the budget increases brought to thehas been recognized as a country that has held a highscientific community did not change, and researcherslevel of science and thus realized the world's leading

and administrators with the vested interests of theinnovations. It largely comes from the fact that itbudget they have had up to that point made it difficult

recognizes the importance of both science andto boldly introduce new measures based on the

education represented by the spirit of "engineering"

demands of the times.

established in the Meiji Restoration, has establishedThe science and technology policy staff members,

academictheories

who had tailored the new research field introduced bydevelopmentandsome researchers to new policies during the time of theestablished a human network in that process.

upward trend, so to speak, seem to be perplexed to not

However,while

throughhumanscientificresearch,theacademic

resourceandhasprinciples

ofbe able to respond fully with the way of work they have"engineering" that Japan has constructed has steadily

continued so far, after the budget leveled off, and in

been constructed, hasn’t it deviated from the demands

parallel, the environment surrounding science andof the times? For example, from immediately after thetechnology in the 21st century changed rapidly entering

Meiji era to the period of rapid growth, metallurgy was

the 21st century.

established as academic theories that brought a

Currently, what is required of the science andscientific basis for metallic materials. Today, however,technology administration are to set a big goal required

the value of metallurgical engineering per se has notfor science and technology in line with the big changechanged, but in terms of materials demanded by theof society, design an institution corresponding to it, andworld, not only metal materials but also theirrecognize the issues of the site management in realizing

combinations with composite materials, inorganic

those. To that end, it is essential to highly develop andmaterials, and even biomaterials are demanded. It isshare ideals and ambitions within their organization,necessary to think about the optimum material forand to communicate with the worksites of science. By

purpose, leaving the situation limited to metals, andthat means, it will be possible to always secure talented

stride academic theories that are broadly related tohuman resources with a high ideal. Specifically, it issubstances.

necessary to advance the science and technology policy

Earlier I noted that the idea that established theby correctly recognizing policies to promote sciencesystem called "engineering" with Japan as its origin has

required by scientists (policy for science), coexistence

not lost its light even today. With the principles built up

with a strong correlation between science and policyin engineering up to now as the foundation, it is ansuch as cutting-edge research being closely related tourgent issue to redesign a new integrated science tothe creation of new industries (science with policy), andrespond to the current social issues. This is possible asa case in which a scientific finding, though not

it is Japan’s signature skill. However, unlike when thenecessarily cutting-edge, leads to a solution of an issue

systematization of engineering started in the Meiji era

required by the policy (science for policy). This isbloomed 100 years after, today the issues have become

because, for example, the method of procurement,

more diverse, complicated, and fast-changing, soamount, and period of funding are different.

extremely flexible responses are required. In otherFor this reason, it is always necessary to also have awords, even if we aim for the same thing, we cannot

comprehensive perspective, set a clear purpose of what

respond in the same way as in the past.

to realize, and discuss policies properly.

First, it is necessary to master the essence of science.

Such qualitative changes should be sought from theIt is to cultivate not only knowledge but also the ability

administration of science and technology.

of individuals and communities to determine theessence of natural phenomena. It is to embody the wayof thinking called critical thinking, and see not part of a

5. The future of science in Japan
In heading towards the future, for Japan, science isphenomenon

but

the

whole,

while

createone of the strong keys for future development. Japanenvironment

that

recognizes

diversity

including24anChapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World

academic freedom.

pay attention to ethical, legal, and social issues related

The second is to identify the issue. It is often said

to science and its outcomes.

that if you can set a task properly, the issue is as good

Finally, as science and technology have spread toas half solved. This is the same with the mystery of

every corner of society, the relationship between

nature and the request by society, and it boils down toscience and politics, whose was as distant as it could be,

the same thing, i.e., the ability. Furthermore, it is to beis also important as one ultimate form of how science

prepared to cope with issues by involving anything

and society should be. When politics makes policy

necessary, because the issue is to solve the issue. It is todecisions, scientific advice that shows a scientific basis

not draw the boundaries of academics or organizations

or provides options based on science towards betterat an early stage, but to cross them if necessary, anddecisions is important. This is clearly different fromhave a flexible mind to be able to do so.

promoting science required by scientists (policy for

The third is to always have the society and the people

science), or coexistence with a strong correlationin perspective while putting energy into specialized

between science and policy such as cutting-edge

sciences. For example, when adaptation to society

research being closely related to the creation of new

becomes an issue for new technologies, it is necessary

industries (science with policy), but it is a case in whichto discuss them while involving the people and society

a scientific finding leads to a solution of an issue

from the time such technologies appear. This is because

required by the policy (science for policy). In otherpeopleimportantwords, the former two contain scientific interests on

stakeholders of science. We must keep in mind that bothsubjects and motivation for the scientist to conduct

scientific activities and scientists are elements of humanresearch, while the latter directly contributes to societysociety. Scientists should not only get absorbed inwith the knowledge of science, so at least the researchresearch activities but also value opportunities toactivities will not be the kind whose primary focus is on

exchange directly with people. Such activities will

the interest of the scientist. Scientific advice is not for

deepen the relationship between science and society,scientists to market their own research and scientificand society will better recognize the meaning behindfields to politics, but rather to communicate what thescience. We should build a trusting relationship between

current science can do and show without exaggeration,society and science in that context. Otherwise, society

and contribute to policy-making. In that sense,

will not only not support science but may forget about

scientific advisers are called honest brokers. Scientists,science as being unrelated to society, or regard it to bewhen giving scientific advice, are not representatives of

causing more harm than benefits. Today, when science

their own field but of the whole of science, and they doand society cannot be separated, we could say that it is

not make claims for the sake of science. For scientificirrational for science, people, and society, and an

advice to work, scientists must work with considerable

unfortunate relationship. Therefore, a dialogue with

self-awareness and recognition. And science merely

society should proceed while both the benefits and risks

provides options, and science alone is not the basis forthat science brings to society are clarified. This is a

final policy decisions but is just one of various otherserious dialogue, should be done by scientists who arefactors, and the decision-makers are responsible for thetrying to figure out the essence of science, and should

decisions. Unfortunately, in Japan, such principles were

not be science communication that only one aspect ofnot shared at all in response to the Great East Japan

science is talked about by communication methods

Earthquake and the ensuing nuclear power plantalone. Also, keeping the integrity of science byaccidents, and scientific advice did not work. As aeliminating research fraud is an indispensable attitudereflection of that, the Science Council of Japan has

in carefully conducting science, whose outcome

revised the code of conduct for the scientists.

are

well

educated,

and

are

(whether it is an outcome of public research or private

Future science needs to face society directly, and toresearch) will be that of society, as a contract withcreate future science together with the people and society.

society. It is also obvious that scientists are obliged to25

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -To clearly organize the relationship between science

6. Several suggestions
When thinking about Japan’s science in the future,and society and to share their perceptions are important

what kind of measures will be necessary? Here are afor mutual a trust relationship, in particular forcouple of possible ideas.

scientific advice to function, where mutual trust is
essential.
- A relationship in which scientists appeal to society1) Essence of scienceI think that science is the basis of what one thinks.

about the importance of science for the sake of

Therefore, logical thinking and critical thinking must be

science, based on their discipline, and seektaught firmly regardless of whether students proceed tounderstanding and support: The classical relationshipstudy scientific fields in the future. In other words, it isbetween science and society.

the "common sense," or the minimum level of- A relationship in which necessary sciences are

education in the era when the relationship between

proposed in consideration of future society including

science and society has evolved.

social expectations: - A relationship between science

Furthermore, in specialized education of science,and society in line with the science and technology

education that teaches scientific ways of thinking andpolicy for conducting cutting-edge scientific researchmethodology more thoroughly is important, but thisto solve issues.

should be done first with the established academic- A relationship in which knowledge of science istheories. This is because, while interdisciplinarity ismobilized to provide options for solution in response

important and it is necessary to learn a broader

to policy-makers' requests: A (transdisciplinary)

perspective and tolerance and not stick to their own area

relationship that considers social conditions otherof expertise only, to receive education of a science thatthan those of science. Knowledge of science isis at an early stage in areas where the methodology has

necessary, but it is neither everything nor the only

not been established poses a risk of not being able tothing.

acquire ways of thinking or methodology properly. I
think that interdisciplinary issues should be grappled

4) People-centered science

with by those who have received training as a scientist.

We propose that science should be advanced as apeople-centered one in every sense.
First, I share the fact that science is positioned within

2) Platform that deals with academic theories thatsociety, and scientists are also members constituting the

respond to social issues
It is necessary to establish a platform to solve issues

society. No matter how advanced and intellectual

like the former engineering departments. What comes

activities they perform, scientists are the same as a lot

to my mind is to refer to the Engineering Researchof people making up the society, and are not in a

Center (ERC) program of the National Science

privileged class. I believe that many scientists are aware

Foundation in the United States, which turned theof this fact, but I think that they should recognize thisstructure of the engineering department of Japan into amatter once again.

contemporary system, and to reproduce the originally

Although scientists make living by advancing science,

Japanese idea once again in Japan. Its targets are what

science per se is a common property of human society.

will create a new field that will respond to social issues

While there are various settings of conditions, anwith a great impact, and it will not be limited to only

outcome of science is basically something to be shared.

one field that has already been established, but it will be

And regarding those whose publishing is restricted, theanlegitimacy of such treatment should be disclosed byinterdisciplinary

one

where

multiplefieldscollaborate.

presenting clear rules.
Next, as for scientists, they are equal as human3) Sharing the recognition of three categories of thebeings, and are to make it a principle to have logicalrelationship between science and society

discussions based on facts and data. Therefore, between

26

Chapter 2

Expectation for Science in Responding to the State of the Modern World

generations, it is natural for seniors to pass down

2) Charles Percy Snow: The Two Cultures, London:

scientific methods adequately, and treat their juniors as

Cambridge University Press. 1959.

equal scientists. It is unfortunate that we see acts of(Japanese translation: Futatsu no bunka to kagaku

treating young scientists like unskilled laborers tokakumei. Makinosuke Matsui. Misuzu Shobo.

advance their own research without adequately teaching

1967.)

them the scientific methods. Such acts are not scientific,

3) Yuichiro Murakami. Kogaku no rekishi to gijutsu

nor social, and should be refrained from.

no rinri (History of Engineering and Ethics of

In addition, science is an intellectual activity ofTechnology). Iwanami Shoten. 2006.

human beings. Even after the singularity when the4) Jun Suzuki. Kagaku gijutsu seisaku (Science andartificial intelligence (AI) is said to exceed the humanTechnology Policy). Yamakawa Shuppansha. 2010.

abilities, it will be necessary for human beings to be at5) Fumitaka Sato. Kagaku to kofuku (Science andthe center of the scientific activities, and advance

Happiness). Iwanami Shoten. 1995.

science proactively.

6) Toshio Kuroki. Kenkyu fusei (Research Fraud).

Finally, science per se is neutral, but its results also

Chuokoron-Shinsha. 2016.

benefit the society and people, while there are also risks.

7) Kazunobu Tanaka. Documentary kokka project

It involves the nature of science itself, but with human(Documentary State Project). Shizuoka Gakujutsu

intervention, it is possible to lower the risks and make

Shuppan. 2016.

the benefits outweigh them. In other words, scientists

8) Hiroyuki Yoshikawa. Honkaku kenkyu (Full-scale

should take the stance of advancing science while

Research). University of Tokyo Press. 2009.

always keeping in mind the happiness of the people.

9) Aki Roberts. America no daigaku no uragawa(InsideAmericanHigher

Education).

Asahi

Shimbun Publications. 2017.

7. Looking back so far
The above is the summary of my discussions and10) Uehara Sadaharu. Edo jidai no kiso kagaku (Basic

analyses at the moment. However, even at this point, I

Science of the Edo Period).

am still stimulated by various events, and my

http://seiten.mond.jp/others/edokagaku.htm

consideration is changing. I will continue to think about

11) Satoru Ohtake. Tembo: Ima, henkakuki ni aru

the relationship between science and society for mykagaku (Perspective: Science in the midst of

lifetime, and my task is to continue to see the prospects

innovativeof future science. So please excuse me in that this is justProcessing and Management. 2015. Vol. 58. No. 3.

my interim consideration.

p. 163-165.

change).

JournalofInformation

12) Satoru Ohtake. Tembo: Henkaku ni kotaeru junan
de kyojin na shakai (Perspective: Flexible andReferences

resilient society in the era of science in transition).
1) Declaration on Science and the Use of Scientific

JournalKnowledge (Budapest Declaration; adopted atofInformation

Processing

Management. 2015. Vol. 58. No. 4. p. 245-249

World Conference on Science, July 1, 1999).

27

and

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -28

Chapter 3 Roles of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Transition Period
Sayaka Oki

29

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -1. "Transition Period" and roles of humanities andperiod. There is also a discussion that further regards thesocial sciences

2010s onwards to be the further new stage as (C), but

Because the fields of humanities and social sciences

we do not affirm this because it is currently in progress.

are very diverse, they should not be considered together

During the two warfare periods of (A) was an era

in theory. Also, there are aspects of limitation for mywhen the European world, which proclaimed freedom

special abilities. Therefore, in the discussions of thisand rationality, was confronted with war damage,report, we take into consideration mainly Science &disorder, and economic crisis, and made it lose its

Technology Studies, economics, and history, fields

confidence. Criticism of the imperialistic capitalist

closely related to the author, among those included inregime became increasingly strong, and Marx-Leninism

the humanities and social sciences.

gained momentum. Totalism, on the other hand, brought

1-1. Essential role of humanities and social sciences

serious reflections on political thought and philosophy,

One of the important roles for humanities and social

and the economics at the time that could not prevent thesciences is to prepare a framework that systematicallydepression was criticized. Then, a welfare state modeland theoretically interprets politics, economics, andassociated with Keynesianism emerged, and it was put

society, and provides guidelines for concrete actions as

into action.2

necessary. 1 Especially in the West, along with the(B) is the era when our living "global economy" wasprocess of modernization, various fields of humanities

full-blown. Developed countries converted policies toand social sciences have developed spontaneously as

neo-liberalism due to deadlocks of welfare states, andknowledge necessary to talk rationally on the “self” as

due to the decline and collapse of the Soviet Union,subject and "society" as a community.

thoughts and various fields related to socialism have

However, because of their nature, the fields ofdeclined. As a change in law and political thought,

humanities and social sciences are often experiencing areinterpretation of the concept of "human rights" and thegreat crisis at the transition period of the times. When aconcept of "citizenship" became conspicuous, following

new society or economic phenomenon is born andthe creation of policy issues of environmental problems

events that cannot be assumed by the framework to date

and the creation of communities across the nation-state

have arisen, they also have a mission to prepare a proper

like the EU.3 In economics the neoclassical economics

interpretation and "talk" to the society. Therefore, if webecame mainstream. Postmodern thought developed inare in a transition period today, it will also be necessary

humanities and social sciences, and there was a big

to have a rough outlook on what is going on in theimpact beyond the field in methodology and ideologicalhumanities and social sciences in a progressive way andframework. A representative example of the latter trend

what is going to be talked about in various fields.

is the consciousness of issues such as criticism ofEurocentrism and reflection of colonial problems,

1-2. Various aspects of the transition period in theawakening

consciousness

tofeminism

and

past

environmental problems, and human rights issues ofsexual minorities.4

Before discussing the present age, I would like tooverview the past. Representative examples of the2

Tatsuya Sakamoto. Shakai shisou no rekishi (The History of Social
Thought). The University of Nagoya Press. 2014. Chapter 11-12. The
theory itself adopted by Keynes was not entirely new as an economic
theory but rather said to have been eclectic. However, it can be said
that it was a "turning point" in adopting a policy of government
intervention and in affirming criticism of laissez-faireism.
3
For example, Karel Vasak, "Human Rights: A Thirty-Year Struggle:
the Sustained Efforts to give Force of law to the Universal Declarationof Human Rights," UNESCO Courier 30:11, Paris: United Nations
Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, November 1977.
Kunihiko Uemura. Shimin shakai towa nanika, kihon gainen no keitou(What is Civil Society? Genealogy of Basic Concepts). Heibonsha
Shinsho. 2010. Chapter 8.
4"Post-modern" itself is a term used also in architecture and art sincethe 1960s, but here it assumes structuralism and post-structuralism"transition period" in which the humanities and social
sciences experienced a certain crisis since the 20th
century are (A) the two warfare periods of the 20th
century and (B) the turbulent period of the Cold War
system, that is, the 1970s or so-called "postmodern"1

In addition to this, the succession of the next generation of cultural
resources including books, art works, and historical materials, and thequalitative and quantitative description/recording of social phenomena
are also important roles.

30

Chapter 3

And (C) is the world after the Lehman shock, andRoles of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Transition Period"progress"

was

often

mentioned

when

politics,

also the world after the Fukushima nuclear power plant

economics and science were talked in relation to eachaccident. As symbolized by SDGs to be discussed later,other. On the other hand, after 1970s and the collapse of

the mediation of environmental problems and economy

the cold war system in the 1990s, the situation changed

becomes increasingly a matter of concern, but incompletely.

parallel with the progress of globalization, the problems

Instead of “progress," it is "innovation" that isof economic disparity and social inequality are

mentioned more often when talking about today's

confronting humanities and social science with newscience. Regarding innovation, as it is considered to bechallenges. In economics, as Thomas Piketty's bookimportant too naturally as one of the scientific outputs,

shows, research on the themes of inequality andsome people might feel a sense of incongruity as it isdisparity has begun to attract attention again. In politics,

cited as well as a vague concept of “progress." But what

the extreme right powers and extreme left powers also

you should not forget is that “innovation" itself is also

expanded in the shadow of globalization, and they arebasically a concept and has a date on which it is to beheightening attacks to the beliefs,

which werementioned as important. As will be described later, suchmainstream in the times of (B), each from theira transition occurred in Europe from the 1980s and in

standpoints.

East Asia from the 1990s to the 2000s. The main

In these "transition periods," the fields related toepicenter of the change is an interdisciplinary fieldpolitics and economics among the humanities and social

centered on economics called "Innovation Research"sciences have often become the place of controversies.

developed after the mid-20th century.

A criticism discourse against the mainstream discourse

It is Siva Vaidyanathan, a cultural history researcher

has always been born, and it has pushed concrete social

who raised the issue of how far "progress" has beenchanges and policy formation. Therefore, we find the

deeply embedded in the past political and social agenda

language of humanities and social sciences has alreadyand that it showed a role similar to the concept ofbeen embedded in society to a certain degree without“innovation." Let us refer to section 8 of clause 8 of the

making us notice it.

Constitution of the United States established in the 18th

Below, as examples showing how words ofcentury along his remarks.

humanities and social sciences have influenced policies,
I will describe the two concepts of "progress" andThe Congress shall have power …To promote the"innovation" that have given impact directly or

progress of science and useful arts, by securing forindirectly to science and technology policies over thelimited times to authors and inventors the exclusive

long term. Then, I would like to consider what kind ofright to their respective writings and discoveries5

roles the humanities and social sciences can play in theabove transition period of (C).

This is a passage which is regarded as the basis ofpatent law in modern times, and it is worth noting that

2. Transition example of "storytelling" leading thescientific and technological activities are encouraged

science and society

under the name of "progress" and are the basis for- “progress" and “innovation" -protection of intellectual property rights. It would not be

2-1. From faith to disillusionment of "progress"amazing if the word “innovation" could be included inhere if it were today.6

The era from the end of the 18th century to the
middle of the 20th century can be said to be an era in"Progress" was meant for the people of those days,

which the concept of "science" and "progress" wasthe advancement of knowledge in science, theemphasized as an issue in the West and areas in contact
5

with the West. Regardless of the scientists at the scene,

U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8, Clause 8, 1787.

6

https://aeon.co/conversations/why-has-innovation-supplanted-the-idea-of-progress [Consulted April 17, 2017] This is a discussion in theforum.

thought, also called "modern thought," since the 1970s.

31

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -improvement of material well-being through it, and thehave also led to environmental degradation and“moral perfection”, that is to say, realization of a society

technological disasters, and have contributed to social

composed of rational and well-mannered citizens,

imbalance or exclusion." There is also the wording thatliberated from prejudice and loving peace. However, the“there is a need for a vigorous and informed democratic

concept was exposed to the first strong criticism after

debate on the production and use of scientific

the two warfare periods. In the background, there was aknowledge." The declaration is famous for mentioningreflection on the fact that the West which was regarded

the importance of "science in society and science foras the center of “civilization," especially Europe, caused

society", but from this, it is understood that, by this time,a barbaric war.

the international communities had shared the values that

Nonetheless, after the Second World War, highdo not encourage "progress" of science in aninternational agenda formation.9

economic growth of some non-European countries
including Japan, which was financially supported by the2-2. Policy focus of “innovation" (after the 1970s)

U.S., temporarily suspended doubts about "progress".
As we know, the Soviet Union developed, advocating a

From the 1970s to 1990s when the Cold War system"progressive" revolution. The U.S. succeeding in

was upset and collapsing, the word “innovation" came

mediating capitalistic and social democratic policies toto be interpreted as an important policy-oriented

realize a welfare state policy. In the 20th century, theseconcept.

countries were also areas where "progress" was realizedinterdisciplinary approach of Innovation Studies, whichin the form of improving material well-being throughwasthe development of science and technology, andeconomists including Richard Nelson and others of theindustrialization.

7

Behindcenteredthisonbackground,

European

there

is

an

Neo-SchumpeterianUnited States research institute RAND and Christopher

The serious disillusionment of "progress" at theFreeman and others of England (later to be the founderhistorical scale came along from the 1970s to the 1990s

of SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University ofwhen the Cold War regime was upset. The seriousness

Sussex).10 They essentially overwrote the definition ofof environmental problems that resulted from thethe word “innovation” and changed it to the coredevelopment of science and technology brought about

concept of science and technology policy and economic

doubts about scientific “progress." In addition, thepolicy.

decline of Marxism crushed the illusion of “progress” ofSo, what was the “innovation” before Freeman? It
virtually

synonymouswith“technologicalsociety controlled by rationality and science. At thewassame time, the tide of criticism against colonialism andinnovation.” "Technological innovation" in the Coldthe feminism campaign, the concept of “progress,"War

reclaiming“universal"

wasWestern-centric and male-centric one.

condemnedasperiodmeant"historicaldevelopmentbytechnology." It is based on a linear model idea that8

“Science-based technologies lead change in society.”In the "Budapest Declaration," adopted at the World

In

place

of

innovationasaconventional

Science Conference in 1999, the importance of“technological innovation,” Freeman and his colleagues"progress" in the sense of the development of natural

reinterpreted the concept of “innovation” as one

scientificconcerning all the processes from product inventions toknowledge(“Scienceforknowledge:knowledge for progress ") is mentioned. Meanwhile, it
9Declaration on Science and the Use of Scientific Knowledge, Text
adopted by the World Conference on Science 1 July 1999. Definitive
version http://www.unesco.org/science/wcs/eng/declaration_e.htm
Refer to the following for Japanese translation.
http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/gijyutu/gijyutu4/siryo/attach/12
98594.htm For the contents of the Budapest Declaration, Mr.
Arimoto and Mr. Ohtake gave me advice.
10
Neo-Schumpeterian developed from around the middle of the 20th
century and was originally known as "Science Research Policy." Jan
Fagerberg, Ben R. Martin and Esben Sloth Andersen ed., Innovation
Studies: Evolution & Future Challenges, Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press,
2013, ch.1, 13.

also stated that “the applications of scientific advances
and the development and expansion of human activity
7

Arnold Burgen, Peter McLaughlin and Jürgen Mittelstraß ed., The
Idea of Progress, Berlin, New York: Walter de Gruyter, 1997, 65-76.
8
Sayaka Oki, “‘Innovation’ as an adaptation of ‘Progress’: Revisiting
the epistemological and historical contexts of the terms,” Innovation
Beyond Technique, CNRS・EHESS/FFJ-JST/RISTEX Joint
International Conference, September 16, 2016.

32

Chapter 3

Roles of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Transition Period

and systems, and bringing about a big change."12

penetration to the market. They focused their attention
to the design of R & D structure that had basically been

As of the 2010s, "innovation" has also become ataken as a black box, left to the scientists, but was thenconcept emphasized when thinking social issues, and it

perceived as the beginning of innovation. In addition,is beyond the framework of concrete industrial

they also reconsidered the role of private enterprises nottechnology policy. And, as the approach to social issues

as mere recipients of the invention, but entities involved

is emphasized, there is a situation where expectationin the invention, and proposed to design a R&D

increases for those fields such as humanities and social

structure based on the existence of private companies.

sciences as a means for extracting social issues,

The background of such proposals was the question

especially in fields that can have something to do withagainst the efficiency of research investment in “Bigmodern society such as economics, sociology, andScience” basic research and military-industrial complex

anthropology.13

in the Cold War period.
3. Exhaustion caused by “innovation" and SDGs

The proposal of Freeman and others, which aimed atinteractivity between science and technology and3-1. Criticism of innovation policy and proposal formarket economy, had a great influence on economic

orbit correction

policy and science & technology policy of developed

While innovation enhances expectations as a meanscountries, mainly on policy reports at the OECD sinceof solving social issues, the experts in the humanities

the 1970s. Even in the Budapest Declaration mentioned

and social sciences got started criticizing the current

earlier, there are expressions based on Nelson’s claim

situation where "innovation" is used like a versatile

about the importance of constructing the "National

magic word, and proposing the orbit correction of theInnovation System."

11

Then, in the 2000s, as is evident

current trend.

in the Oslo Manual (2005), the range of meaning for the

What is regarded as a problem is the situation where

word “innovation” gradually expanded, and it came tovarious innovations are accelerated by policy guidance

be used also for objects other than science andand as a result, social consensus and democratic debate

technology.

are left behind, while discontinuous changes areofaccumulated.14 As we will see later, it can be said that it"innovation" has also spread to the Japanese speaking

is inevitable in times because the innovation policy

world with a time difference. From the 1990s, thesince the 1990s is closely related to the "globalized"

interest in "innovation policy" gradually increased, andeconomy that has been also criticized recently.

Thissemantictransition

in

the

concept

the Kagaku gijutsu hakusho (White Paper on Science

For example, Luc Soete, a renowned researcher in the

and Technology), Heisei 14 version (2002), stated thatfield of innovation studies, argues as follows. There areinnovation can no longer refer solely to technological

not

only

"creative

destruction"

conventionallyinnovation, and began to use inobeshon, transliterated
form of the word for this new meaning, in place ofgijutsukakushin,oldtranslation

implying

12

Shinichi Kobayashi. Kagaku gijutsu innovation seisaku no tanjou tosono haikei (The birth of science and technology innovation policy
and its background). Kagaku gijutsu shakai ron kenkyu (Journal of
Science and Technology Studies). No. 13. March 2017. pp. 66-82. See
also the following about the situation in Japan. Kunio Goto. “Kagaku
gijutsu innovation” no shisou to seisaku (Thought and policy of“science and technology innovation”). Id. pp. 66-81. Nobumichi Ariga& Osamu Kamei (Ariga & Kamei). Kagaku gijutsu hakusho ni miru
“gijutsu kakushin” no imiai no hensen (Transition of the meaning of"technological innovation” seen in the white paper of science andtechnology). Bulletin of the National Museum of Nature and Science.
Series E (Physical Sciences & Engineering). 2014. Vol. 37. p. 38.
13
Sayaka Oki. “Yuuyouna kagaku” to innovation no gainenshi("Conceptual history of “useful science” and innovation). Iwanami
kouza gendai, dai 2 kan, post reisen jidai no kagaku/gijutsu (Iwanami
Course Contemporary, Volume 2, Science/Technology in the Post-Cold
War Age). Hideto Nakajima ed. Iwanami Shoten. February 2017. pp.
67-90.
14
The paper mentioned above.

bothinnovation and technological innovation. In 2006,
innovation was also positioned in the 3rd Term Scienceand Technology Plan, and in the Kagaku gijutsu
hakusho (White Paper on Science and Technology),
Heisei 20 version (2008), re-describes innovation(inobeshon) as “creating new values for social systems

11

See section 37 of Declaration on Science... The Japanese version
official translation has the national innovation systems as "system ofnational innovation" and seems to be not being able to capture theclaims of Freeman, Nelson, and others.

33

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -mentioned in innovation theory, but also "destructive

Before the Bayh-Dole Act was enacted, it was acreation" bringing about destruction of societally sharedproblem that the results of research by public funds

value and a non-sustainable consumption pattern. In

remained asleep in public sectors such as universities

particular, the following two trends are problematic.

and were not marketed. However, the problem of theFirst, the encouragement of innovation systematicallypresent age is that public funds are leaked to the market

creates "outdated products" and excessive consumption

through investment in research, and then only thetrends, which puts strain on the global environment.

commercial sector of some industrialized countries gets

This applies to the ICT technology sector, mostbenefit from it, never bringing sufficiently return tomanufacturing industries that sell goods by image

society as a whole. Therefore, Mazzucato and others try

strategy, fashion industry, and so on. Secondly, theto propose a method for the public sector to retrieve its

various financial innovations brought about by theinvestment in a way that does not reduce too much thedevelopment of financial engineering and the spread ofvitality of the private sector.16

electronic transactions are not subject to appropriate
regulation, which constitutes the risk of causing

3-2. Positioning of SDGs and the humanities andconfusion and disturbance in the economic system. For

social sciences

instance, the credit default swap that was created in
1994 is an example.

Changes in the tone in the innovation studies referred15

to in the previous section are not irrelevant to theMariana Mazzucato points out the danger that

adopting process of the "Sustainable Development

existing innovation policies, particularly that of the U.S.,

Goals (SDGs)" consisting of 17 goals adopted by thewill expand the inequality, profiting only some of theUnited Nations in September 2015. Indeed, in thedeveloped countries. And she asks how to innovate notdiscussions of development economists, which are areas

only in a "smart" way but also in an “inclusive" way.

that are deeply committed to SDGs, we can find theSince the 1990s, the innovation policy has focused on

point of reviewing innovation policies in developed

ICT, nanotechnology and biotechnology in the United

countries.17

States, and economic disparity has increased, as is well

SDGs

claim

economic

growth,environmental

known. In the background, she says there is a structuralprotection and social inclusion. They come from the

problem with the current innovation policy.

philosophy that Colombia, Guatemala, the Peruvian

Like most developed countries, even in the United

government and others proposed at the 2012 Sustainable

States, it is the huge amount of public money funded by

Development Conference (Rio + 20) conference.18 As athe state that supports the truly advanced science andmajor difference from the preceding "Millennium

technology innovation. However, unlike conventional

Development Goals" (MDGs), social approach to theinvestment in public policy, the funds put into researchcause of poverty is emphasized in SDGs, andand development in the privileged high-tech fields such

furthermore, not only developing countries but all

as ICT, biotechnology, and nanotechnology have little

countries including developed countries were targeted.

tendency to give much return to the rest of society, as
they

never

createsufficient

local

As mentioned earlier, the situation created by

employments.

innovation, based on current advanced science andMoreover, the high-tech multinational corporations thattechnology, is far

from achieving sustainability.

received those outcomes and developed through it not
only benefit from the tax reduction policy, which

16

Innovation Studies. ch. 10. It introduces an approach to invest in
research in the form of a loan in which repayment obligations arise
when research outcomes lead to profits, such as SITRA in Finland and
KfW, an investment bank in Germany.
17
For example, University of Sussex, the center of innovation
research, also has a pivotal center of development economics, andcross-citations of articles and personnel exchanges are seen as in thediscussion cited in footnote 19.

became remarkable after the 1990s, but tend to evenavoid tax and did not contribute much to the national tax
revenue increase (Apple is one of the typical examplesof these companies).

18
15

Innovation Studies. ch. 6. Unfortunately, I am not familiar with thisfield, so it is difficult to fully explain it.

https://pub.iges.or.jp/system/files/publication_documents/pub/issue/25
45/rio_issue_brief_vol1_sdgs_mar2012.pdf

34

Chapter 3

Roles of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Transition Period

Considering from the balance with SDGs, it is required"progress" and the "innovation" issued from theto pursue R & D and innovation across sectors in a moredeveloped countries (especially the United States andsustainable manner. Moreover, it is not completed in

the UK). There may be more role than ever for a society

urban areas of industrialized countries, it must also

like Japan that has already experienced the exhaustion

involve the industries and non-profit sector grassrootsof sudden rapid change through its history. The

activities in developing countries.

humanities and social sciences of Japan have conducted

Researchers who are interested in SDGs, mostly

a series of studies on these changes. At the same time, it

development economists, think it necessary for theirwill be necessary to consider the difference, as Japan's

ideals to encourage and promote diverse efforts inexhaustion is not necessarily the result of neo-liberaldeveloping countries in sharing and dissemination of theeconomic policy, but it is a product of "modernization"

local knowledge.

19

Movement of open science and open

in general, problems accumulated through the 20th
century.22

data which has advanced in recent years is also linked
with that idea.20

Given the future, the fields such as economics

Compared to MDGs, SDGs are goals that involve(especially development economics and innovation

more extensive academic communities, including thestudies),

humanities and social sciences. However, because the

Science and Technology Studies, science of policy,

fields of environmental science and development

philosophy, history and sociology (also those studying

economics were the main actors in their formulation,

both the regions of East Asia and the West) shouldeven in Western countries, it takes time for theincrease opportunities to exchange opinions. However,communities of humanities and social sciences to fully

in doing so, what I care about personally is the existence

recognize the whole SDG as a global agenda. Inof discommunication inside the humanities and social

particular, it is not so evident for some academic

sciences. People to meet do not seem to have met. For

communities and local party agencies that have alreadythe moment, I have only some hypothetical ideas on theengaged themselves in the concrete issues related tocause of this situation as the followings. Firstly, there issocial inclusion to see much difference between thosea general tendency for Japanese academic organizations

new goals and what they have done. From the spirit of

to have a strong vertical structure that never facilitates

SDGs, it will be meaningful to connect the researcherstransdisciplinary communications among researchers.

and people "already active in the grassroots" to the new

Secondly, there still exists the negative side effect of the

global agenda.

21

Various actors need to deepen theirenvironmental

science,genderresearch,

students movements in 1968, having divided the

dialogue in each country.

Japanese academic community in a different way from
North America and Europe. Thirdly, some politicalproblem as the legacy of the Cold War period still divide

4. Issues of humanities and social sciences in Japan
Finally, I will describe the humanities and social

easily Japanese academics in parties, as the serious

sciences of Japan in the “transition period" as far as I

conflicts over Japan's security policy and nuclear policy

understand. SDGs are formed with what comes after thedid.23era led by the brutal calls of the Western-centered

It is really important to re-enhance now theintellectual feeds back circuit between humanities andsocial sciences to the Japanese administration. As far as

Leach, M., J. Rockström, P. Raskin, I. Scoones, AC Stirling, A. Smith,
J. Thompson, E. Millstone, A. Ely, E. Arond, C. Folke, and P. Olsson.
Transforming innovation for sustainability. Ecology and Society ",2012, 17 (2):19 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-04933-170211
20
For example, the next event and the like are typical as indicating its
direction.
http://www.codata.org/news/166/62/Open-Data-and-Open-Science-for-the-SDGs-UN-STI-FORUM-Side-Event-15-May ;http://www.jst.go.jp/csc/join/overseas/south-america/cilac/index.html
21
For example, the following explanation according to the Canadiansituation.
http://www.ideas-idees.ca/blog/global-sustainable-development-goalshave-potential-drive-change-canada

22

For example, the social science of Japan has always been
concerned with problems such as depopulation and exhaustion of local
cities, but until the early 2010s, they were rarely emphasized in theinternational agenda setup. It was recently revealed by Brexit and thebirth of the Trump regime that those countries also have "rural areas"that are exhausted and face problems.
(http://thinktank.php.co.jp/kaeruchikara/1407/?Print=1)
The fact that how to accept university conflicts in 1968 greatly differsfrom field to field was seen in Europe itself.23 For example, see aseries of research by Charles Soulié, sociologist.

35

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -I know, for the moment, there seems to exist unfortunate
dissonances between the majority of administrative
sector and the academia, especially researchers deeply
involved in SDGs related issues, such as environment,
regional studies, and gender studies. The former
criticizes the quality of research in Humanities andSocial Sciences, while the latter raises dissatisfactionthat Japanese administrative organizations are not able
to properly select experts when dealing with social
issues. I am not going to declare that either isunilaterally correct, and I do not have that ability tojudge, but one thing is sure that their opinions crossed
each other in a tragic way. In order for collective
intelligence to be displayed to aim the goals such as
SDGs, it is necessary for each of them to take into
consideration of the diversity of historical and cultural
background of people in different fields with different
roles, and to try to think about measures to makedifferent people to cooperate more.

36

Chapter 4 The Meaning in Questioning Postmodern Science and Technology- Now is the Time to Talk about “Academics Studies” Naoki Miyano

37

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Certainly, we can say that an innovative change isis what "science” is, to reconsider and revise science

now being called for regarding how "science andand technology in a true sense, it is essential to properly

technology” should be. However, isn’t it always thereconsider its form as well.

case that a change and a reform are called for? The

By format here, I would like to mean the logical"reform fever" that Tosaka began to talk about in theframework held by the classical “science.” As a1

1930s is still continuing even now. In the generally

precondition, I want to make a complete separation

accepted idea of regarding constant changes such as

between subjectivity and objectivity, emphasize objects

innovative changes and reforms as good things, thesubstitutable with a number i.e., what we can see (andfigure of a vehicle going furtively forward and forward

in some cases, even believe that the number is the thingwith a "sense of crisis" (which is often borne out of

itself), believe that it can be operated, and furthermore,comparison of circumstances with those of otherbelieve that things can move (or be moved) with acountries) as a fuel, with "practice" and "evaluation"

linear causal relationship of “if you do this, thisarranged as the wheels on the both sides, and withhappens.” The tendency to place emphasis on“strategy and proposal" as the landmark, is consideredevaluations and indicators such as rankings and the like

ideal. According to the purpose of this study group, theis a typical example of these. Furthermore, this is also

starting point of this thesis is that, if we are to face andtrue with an emphasis on discovering issues and thethink about the fact that “Science and technology must

opinion that “Now is the time that we need a strategy

change!” then this figure of the vehicle moving

and vision!” The issues and the direction to aim for are“forward!” “forward!” should probably be subjected tocaptured with an image of them being somewhere otherdoubt first.

than the “people" including themselves, and the self andI say this because I wholeheartedly agree with thethe object are confronted with each other, splendidly

words that it is crazy to repeat the same thing andplacing a distance between them. Oddly enough, while

expect a different result.2 It goes without saying thatholding out that “science and technology is entering awhile we seem to be thinking freely in various ways,

period of transformation, and it is necessary to escape

we are captured in an invisible rut. I feel that because

the so-called modernism such as paper supremacism,3

the “problems of science and technology" that we facetechnology supremacism, rationalism, operationism,

today closely related to our actions and lifestyles whenetc.,” the actual forms and methods to escape are deeply

they are solved, people are inadvertently captivated byimmersed in modernism. When that is the case, is itthat influence and real effect, not paying attention toreally possible to escape them?

their ways or habits of thinking, namely the forms inThis opinion does not in any way deny the purpose ofwhich they think. Even worse, these very forms arethis study group. Rather, I believe that it is essential tomethods born out of “science,” which makes them hardreach the aim of this study group which is in its purpose.

to deal with. I mean that, especially with respect to thisTo begin with, are "science and technology" something"science and technology," it is not possible to separate

which we can talk about as having become better orcontent and form, that is, because the form of thinking

worse? After all, what are we supposed to target, to beunsatisfied with, and discuss? Among the “problems of1

Gendai nihon no shiso tairitsu (Confrontation of Thoughts inContemporary Japan). Aozora Bunko. 1936. Jun Tosaka.
2
They are considered to be the words of Einstein or BenjaminFranklin, but the truth is said to be unknown.
3
Various incidents and problems in the relationship between society
and science in the sense of a discourse of science, technology, andsociety. I am acutely aware of the outrageousness in grouping
evaluation of science and technology, how policies should be,comparison with overseas countries, rankings, fear of the tendency tovalue the number of papers written or overemphasis on competitive
funds, how science should be, how technology should be, etc., assimply “problems of science and technology." However, I did thisbecause I wanted to make the theme “attitudes of the intelligent classinvolved in science and technology" as the subject of this thesis,
rather than pursue accuracy by dealing with individual problems.

science and technology" that are brought to light by
noble advocates and policy-makers, how many of those
problems are really worth dealing with? Is that problem
really a problem? Are they not too high to reach just as
the likes of desire for happiness or pursuit of the good,
not much meaningful even if a comparison is made, or
not something that would have no influence whatsoeveron the ordinary world even if they are solved? Whoshould lament the problems (or where), and who can

38Chapter 4

The Meaning in Questioning Postmodern Science and Technology

solve them (or where)? Problem! Problem! Do you feelsogoteki ishiki chosa (NISTEP teiten chosa) (Analyticalassured that you are on the right side, if you make that

Report for 2015 NISTEP Expert Survey on Japanese

noise? After all, now the problem is exactly what the

S&T and Innovation System (NISTEP TEITEN

problem is, and the question to rethink is the commonly

survey))held idea of regarding the current problems as problems,......In addition to the recognition of the increase ofand the forms that produce it. Unless we become more“researchers

conscious about this, “science and technology" will not

outcomes," “researchers who conduct research with achange in a true sense. For example, when they say thathigh reliability of achieving a result," “researchers who

Japan's science and technology are losing, or that Japan

release their results in small pieces (to deal withis lagging, what does that mean? On the contrary, is theevaluations) being shown, the recognition of thestate of winning, or the state of being "good”? If so,

decrease of "researchers who carefully work on their

then what is good about what? As you can see, the way

research topics with emphasis on long-term researchof thinking that what remains after the competition is

strategies" is shown.

whostrongly

aim

forshort-term

better is the so-called "science" itself.
Below, I would like to summarize it in three points as

I think that those working in this community of“problems of science and technology" are familiar witha foothold for escaping the forms of today's thinking.

these words already, but please read it again withunbiased eyes. What a worst wording ever! In particular,

1. Cause and result
As an example of the current science and technology

the excerpt from the 5th Science and Technology Basic

not performing well, I will show the following excerpts

Plan is terrible beyond the extent of, “how dare they say

from the 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan, which

that!” No matter how positive the information shown inis perfect as an authoritative representative of thethe previous stages of this paragraph was, the words

writing on science and technology, and the Expert

scattered here are so bad that they would overturn it.

Survey on Japanese S&T and Innovation System byThen, I would want to ask this simple question. What

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy

have the academia and the world of science and(NISTEP) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,

technology policy protected so far doing what?

Science and Technology.

When you try to rethink this extremely simple causal
relationship between the cause and result, it should be- From the Overview of the 5th Science and Technology

normal to doubt the cause first. Because of this, that. I

Basic

The

cannot help but wonder that a result completely

achievements and issues of the 20 years of Science andopposite to this extent came about because the main

Technology Basic Plan

premise in the discussion of "because of this" was......However, in recent years, the "fundamental power"

wrong.4 The major premise is the concepts shared by

has weakened, such as the fall in the international status

us like our views on academics, science, andin both the quality and quantity of academic papers, theuniversities, such as various definitions such as

delay in establishing an international research network,“research is...,” “academic studies are...,” “universities

and the inability of young researchers to demonstrate

are...,” “science is...,” and “science and technology

their abilities. The industry-academia collaboration has

are...,” that is, our commonly held ideas. You might say,not become full-scale, either. Delays in the reform of“No, this common idea is not wrong. It’s just that wemanagement

did it the wrong way.” However, just because we did it

Plan,

Chapter

and

1,

human

Basic

Ideas

resource(2)

systemsofuniversities, etc., and the presence of "walls" between
4

Or, maybe in the beginning there was something to protect, but they
were so desperate to protect it that they forgot what they were
supposed to protect in the first place. However, as will be stated later,
we can say that the case is also a result of neglecting the“in-the-first-place discussion."organizations turned out to be factors.
- From 2015 nen kagaku gijutsu no jokyo ni kakaru

39

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -the wrong way, could the situation be so opposite to thelegal revisions in the policy area alone, including theideal (or the original state of academics)? As you know,

1996 Science and Technology Basic Plan about 20

discussing various definitions and talking about

years ago, the 1998 Act on the Promotion ofcommonly held ideas is an extreme pain, so very often

Technology Transfer from Universities to Private

we make light of it or do not even work on defining

Business Operators, the 1998 establishment of TLO, the5them, and then move on to practice. The idea that it is1999 Act on Special Measures concerning Industrial

important to move “Forward!” and “Forward!” must be

Revitalization, the 2001 establishment of the Council

making us do so. This current situation is the payback

for Science and Technology, and the 2006 revision ofof having very easily skipped over the inevitable paththe Basic Act on Education, in which “contribution to

we had to take if we truly wanted to change things, andsociety" was explicitly stipulated as a mission of thetruly wanted to improve them. The fact that we are inuniversities. Researchers especially cannot blame this

this situation, even though we continued to say thaton policymakers or enterprises influencing it. That’schange was necessary, is the testament to our avoidance

because, researchers are listed as members of any ofof discussing our commonly held ideas. A giant patient,these conferences or committees.

who continues to eat high-calorie meals every day forthree meals, shouts that "the medicine is not working,"

As another example, why is it that people in the．
．
．
．
community of science and technology feel that theand continues to seek and consume expensive medicine"science and technology" of our country are notdeveloped with even more money. But, of course, his

improving, and that they are in a crisis? Is it the

body does not get better at all. Is it his attitude or the"evidence data" saying that the so-called top 10%

medicine that’s bad?

papers are decreasing? Except, of course, there are not afew data showing that Japan's "science and technology"
are excellent.7 They do not compare all the data to say

2. Inside and outside
It is perfectly fine to lament the current state of

their opinions, they cannot gather all the data in the first"science and technology" and try to change them, butplace, or the results of individual data vary considerably

we should not forget that the current state is the result

depending on how they are acquired. What and in whatof changing things little by little thinking that it was agood thing. Denying the present situation is a simple act

way on earth do we pick from the many “data”．
．
．
．
available to feel that things are not getting better?

that even children can do. However, what on earth is the

Of course, I have an intention in using the sensory

denial supposed to be denying? For example, there is a

expression of "feel" here. That is because, if weresult of a questionnaire survey, famous evidence data

continue to think of the above questions, the source ofconcerning the current state of science and technology,

the dissatisfaction with the current state, after all, boils

which says that researchers' research themes aredown to the fact that there is "something they can’t

6stomach" about the events occurring within the

Taking this up, it is easy to say, "This is an inconvenient

category of individual experiences around themselves.

fact. Research should be long-term by nature." However,

Each of them should simply start listing those things

as it is in more practical research that there isthey can’t stomach, but intellectuals are quick and eager

significance, or because the words of “science forto preach from a broader perspective as if it were theirsociety” have been appreciated, clearly it is we, notmission. Besides, when they express their opinions onother people, who have pushed forward this number ofscience and technology “in my country,” “whose”

increasingly becoming short-term and short-sighted.

country is “our country”? Is there someone who can“No, the definition is appropriate. You see it at the beginning of thewords of the policy," some may have thought. Indeed, in some cases
there are such words of definition. However, the problem is that thedefinition is not a result of thorough discussion. That is, despite thework being even more necessary if we are in a period of confusion.
6
Kagaku gijutsu no jokyo ni kakaru sogoteki ishiki chosa (Analytical
Report for 2015 NISTEP Expert Survey on Japanese S&T and
Innovation System (NISTEP TEITEN survey 2015)).
5

7

The number of Nobel Prizes won during this century, the rankings
by Nation Brands Index, etc. Also at the worksite level, strengths
have been pointed out including improvement in the ease of using
scientific research grants, and strengthening the development of theresearch support system (development of URA) (from NISTEPTEITEN survey 2015)

40

Chapter 4

The Meaning in Questioning Postmodern Science and Technology

represent the science and technology of this country

have a doubt and think that the axis of evaluation at thewith responsibility? In the end, the constituent elements

time of looking back is the most important subject toof “our country" are the individuals, and improving xx

look back on, we will merely be making evidence toin “our country” is none other than improving xx of thefulfill this thing called accountability.

individuals. And the most important thing is whether

3. Thoughts and actions

they are thinking while including themselves among theindividuals who are the constituent elements of “ourIf a reader replaced what I have stated so far with acountry.” The same goes for “science and technology."

claim, “So, you mean that an ‘in-the-first-place’To put it roughly, the “problems of science anddiscussion is important” (which is also fine), 8 theytechnology" boil down to being merely thinking andwould say, "But we can’t just think about it, right?"

actions of the individuals, including themselves. It is

This is a way of thinking of pragmatism often heard

probably the intellectuals, held captive by today's forms

here and there, that is, the way of thinking that actionsof thought, who do not doubt that they can haveand practices are important, and that without them,

discussions standing at the position to say, “Ourstrategies, plans, or thoughts are pointless. That is true.

country!” or “Science and technology!” while putting

But why do we need to separate thought from action?

aside this most important thing. Cry out "I am!"

We do not need to make a decision as a precondition

because you are also “our country” and science andwhen we perform some act in the first place. Especially,

technology. Don’t say this or that, and shut up andas we have the phrase “impulse buying,” an active

sweat so you can accept it yourself (so you can truly beaction truly happens when thought and action are

happy). If the "science and technology of our country"

intertwined. In the policy area, the administrative side

does not change as the whole of this, I would likeoften formulates a recommendation, strategy, or

someone to tell me what will.

roadmap, and then says, “the rest is just the actual

After all, what to question now is the habits andpractice.” But what exactly is the practice if it cannot beforms of our ways of thinking. Because they see thedone without creating incentives or penalties afterinconvenient reality like an object that has been

making the plan for the practice to be implemented? If

disconnected from the past, all those countermeasuresthey are going to spend money, time, and effort on suchare temporary, and none of them demonstrates its true

follow-ups, it will be much better for them to use theireffect. Moreover, because they do not doubt that theyenergy so that the moment that people touch the thought

see this inconvenient reality objectively, they create abehind the strategy or plan, it immediately influences

measure like it is somebody else’s business with atheir actions. When people make others eat bad-tastingfeeling of getting nowhere and with no sense of reality.

food one way or another, saying “it’s nutritious,” theThis very way of viewing things as individual objects is

one eating it does not understand and accept that it is in

typical of scientificism, and if we do not have any

fact nutritious. They wouldn’t have to spend so muchdoubt about that, we will not be able to get close to themoney or effort if they were convinced. On the otherroot cause. It is evil now, but in the old days, it washand, people to eat it were not convinced, but it filled

good. It was a very innovative policy. However, now it

their stomach, so in the beginning they were eating it

produces undesirable results. If we think in a continuumwith patience. However, before they knew it, it became

like this, will it not lead us to reflect on ourselves first?

commonplace, and now they have forgotten what they

The very introspection on what held us captive whenreally want to eat. How have we come to this?

we were working so hard must end up producing thenext “science and technology.” Otherwise, we can see

To summarize this paper, I would like to say that thethe reforms being merely those of the branches and theleaves, but not the trunk. Sure, in the policy world,“In-the-first-place discussions" are not so easy. It is not because it
requires philosophical thinking or knowledge, but because it is a taskof doubting common sense while having common sense. How do you
turn over the cushion on which you are sitting yourself?
8

work is being done in the name of a follow-up orreview to look back on policies. However, if we do not41A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -meaning in questioning postmodern science andsafety, or problem-solving, for example. Because it is atechnology lies in questioning how the intellectuals invery important thing that concerns a lot of people.

the community of "science and technology” should be.

Meanwhile, universities should just focus on academic

If there is dissatisfaction that changes are not happening

studies. And, if the reason why it is impossible to think

while being called out, the cause is not "it does notabout the “problems of science and technology" basedchange because we are not thinking." “A well-tailoredon introspection is that the place called university,

strategy is important,” “a well-thought-out goal setting

which should originally be for academic studies, is not

is important,” and “why isn’t everyone thinking andproperly aligned with the way it should be, we musttaking actions!” are not the truth. Because we have beenreflect on it fiercely because we are not producing

thinking about it all along and we have come to thishuman resources who introspect.

now. If you ask me, the cause is not “it will not change

It is still not too late. We only need to have aunless you think,” but "it will not change unless wedialogue with the person sitting in front of us, by us.

think properly." Then, what does it mean to think

And it is good enough to continually devote ourselvesproperly? What should we do?

so that the dialogue is an academic study, putting aside

Regarding that, in fact academic studies have alreadythe intellectuals nowadays crying out this or that. Theretaught us to (1) think about “thinking," (2) think in

is no way we are not better than anyone in the worldterms of "my world" where there is nothing that can bewhen our inner tradition has the thoughts of freedom

blamed on other people in this world, or (3) think in aand independence 10 in Fukuzawa’s words, andway that touches on or is consistent with reason of theself-orientedness11 in Natsume’s words. Now, everyone

world such as universality and existence. 9 The postureis doing their best. We only need to realize with a littleof introspection, embodied in our own ways of living,preparedness that the “way” we do our best is justsuch as trying to be aware of the confinement of ourdifferent.

own thought by doubting what was believed about theways we thought or did things, and seeking new ideas

Keywords

and ways of doing things, is exactly what academic

Introspection, form of thought, causal relationship,studies are about. The system of knowledge is only acriticism of intellectuals, philosophy

product of that. Whether it is science or literature, whatkind of field, what point of view, why we do it, why we
who do it exist, where we exist if we do exist. Loss forwords at the point where subjectivity and objectivity,
and the inside and the outside, intersect and dissolve,
for example like things which do not touch upon suchreason of this world, is not academic studies. If they are
to stay with an act of finding a vacant lot that has notbeen touched yet to seemingly observe it, survey it,
analyze it, and write a paper, that is, “doing research,"they can do it at an enterprise or a research instituteestablished under a national strategy, according to the
purpose of each time such as convenience, comfort,
Here, do I need a citation like “As Socrates said in the Phaedrus by
Plato...”? It would be necessary if this was an academic paper, but it isnot. In the first place, it is not possible to give such a single and clear
source for this opinion of mine about “thinking properly." I merely
wrote publicly the words I believe in as a result of having
encountered people and words, and thought in my life, following the
etymology of the word professor. Also, this is also a sarcasm toward
the people who think that writing papers make them a professor.
910Freedom as referred to by Yukichi Fukuzawa almost means“independence." He stressed that having your own thought regardlessof the predetermined notions was freedom (= independence).
11
Self-orientedness as referred to by Soseki Natsume does not mean
being selfish, but roughly means that you should do things within thescope that you understand and accept, with responsibility.

42Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings- Emotions that Connect Thoughts Shoji Komai

43

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -education and health, and occupies a large part of the

1. Preface
I do not mean to claim something like “We should

issues facing the humankind.

increase drinking parties,” or “We should process things

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were

emotionally." Neither, do I want to say that we should

adopted by the United Nations under the participation

immerse ourselves in researches or academic studies

of over 150 member states' leaders with the aim ofwithout any inhibition. None of the wonderfulpromoting solution of the issues that this world isresearches have started from zero. They exist on somefacing. SDGs are the successor to the Millennium

accumulations, sometimes not directly, but they are

Development Goals (MDGs) and consist of 17 goals

built on many bases. As in the words of Francis Bacon,and 169 targets, and based on this, all member states of"The clever one creates opportunities, more thanthe United Nations are required to do their best to

finding them." Opening eyes to a wider world to findachieve the various goals for sustainable development

opportunities, and spinning it to real actions opens thefrom 2015 to 2030.2

future. By reconfirming that thoughts are spun by

2-1-2. What can science and technology do tohumans, and by making good use of this to prepare for

eliminate disparity?

the future beyond our imaginations, I think we’ll be

Also in Japan, each ministry and agency, including

able to open the future.

the Council for Science, Technology and Innovation, isembarking on activities to achieve the targets listed here.

2. Cannot focus on the problem

In particular, Japan Science and Technology Agency

2-1. Problems hidden in daily life and society

has begun concrete efforts, and has been advancing

2-1-1. A society in which the gap is flourishing

more progressive and actionable discussions. With

Now

that

globalization

has

progressedandsubstantive opinions being exchanged on institutional

diversification of value has progressed to an excessive

design of funding, the relationship between science anddegree, the situation of rich people being richer andtechnology and policies, and diplomatic strategies, itpoor people being poorer is accelerating in this world.

advances formulation of a framework in which Japan

According to the international NGO Oxfam’s survey,

can lead the world and respond to these problems. So,

the total household assets in 2013 reached 241 trillion

what can we do as Japan’s academic community, anddollars, but the top 1% is monopolizing 110 trillion

what should we do?

dollars, which is nearly half of the total, and it is

We often hear voices of researchers such as "I do notreported that the total assets of the top 85 people isknow what to target," or “It is not in my field, so I

equivalent to the total assets of the people in the lower

cannot be involved," when bringing in solution of social

50%. In response to this, in the report at the annual

problems like SDGs in the science and technology

general meeting "Davos Conference" in January 2014,

fields. That may actually be true. I think, for example,

the World Economic Forum (WEF) pointed out that thethat it is easy for them to imagine how to deal withbiggest threat of the world economy is the expansion of

items such as safety of food and water. However, I

income disparity. Furthermore, in the report of January

imagine that it is very difficult to bring problems into

this year 2017, it was pointed out that the assets of thetheir own fields such as gender balance, poverty, andworld's wealthiest only eight people was about the samebalance among nations.

as the total amount of about 3.6 billion people in the

Isn’t this point the most important problem to belower 50% of the world population, and the gap

solved? Modern civilization underpinned by the1development of science and technology that human

These disparities are not only affecting economy, but

beings have built has made various phenomena more

between rich and poor was expanding unprecedentedly.

are creating disparities in various forms such as
2

Commentary on the "Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)" by
the United Nations
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-developmentgoals/

1

Report on economic disparity by Oxfam in January 2017.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2017-01-16/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world44

Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings

convenient,

and

have

strivedtomaintainmake us human beings’ lives even more affluent but

thehomeostasis of the environment inhabited by themore complicated.

humankind. As a result, the population has exploded,

2-2-3. Social sciences

and it has built a more convenient environment. It is

The ways of capturing things in natural sciences

conceivable that this resulted in imbalance in various

began to be applied to our society as well. This isforms, causing widening of inequality. If it is, it isthought to be the result of the diffusion of methods andpossible for scholars to confront this problem

ways of thinking in cognitive science as the technology

themselves, and it rather seems necessary to tackle itof measurement improved. Measurement of various

seriously.

kinds of biometric information such as brain waves,finger plethysmograms, size of the pupil, direction of

2-2. Development of science and technology

the line of sight, etc., can now be performed precisely,

2-2-1. Natural sciences

and in recent years, it has become more popular to

Defining natural science as what tries to understandvisualize brain activities noninvasively. Its targets are

the general idea of all things, I think that the so-called

not only limited to indicating the state of a single

sciences including physics, chemistry, and biology,

individual but to measuring changes in the brain

correspond to this. The answers are just around us, andactivities and physiological indicators seen when

it aims to understand our own existence, the regularity

multiple individuals interact with each other, so it has

regarding the formation of the world and the universe,

become possible to understand actions which humans

to clarify the general principles. Human beings have so

can take or group characteristics i society in numerical

far tried to maintain homeostasis inside and outside ofterms.

themselves

understanding

understanding of phenomena, more rigorous logic andknowledge of various things, and making predictions bygrounds have come to be required for observational

promotingandresearch, which has made it possible to garner more

knowledge of them related to nature that humankind

understanding. In addition, I think that the idea of

has revealed so far have changed the view of the world

predicting the future of society more accurately has alsoof humankind, and it has come to replace the existence

spread further, due to the introduction of logic in naturalof God. Also, in addition to these facts and knowledge,

sciences.

by
thisaccumulating
naturalandscience.

The

facts

Becauseof theinfluenceby numerical"logic" as a methodology of natural science became

However, as society diversifies due to the advance of

extremely important for human beings due to the highsupernatural science into society, and values becoming

foreseeability on various things, and it began to be used

more complicated, how should the humans behave toin various scenes.

understand various phenomena found in modern society

2-2-2. Supernatural scienceand reach a solution? How should humans respond to

The so-called natural science has had its answers in

unknown problems? To understand the science andthe long history of 4.6 billion years, and it was possible

technology, and the human beings themselves, thatto predict the future by looking back on this history.

produced these problems, I would like to review what

However, in the field of supernatural science mentioned

kind of living things are in the first place.

here, there is a possibility of causing what humankind
or nature has never experienced before. Either thing

3. Humans are living things that can do anything,

may be contained in nature after all, but thebut cannot do anythingcombination is extremely artificial. I think that

3-1. From the viewpoint of brain scienceengineering (and engineering science) and information

In the process of their evolution, humans havescience, etc., that produce completely new things thatdeveloped their brains, and have developed society andhave never been produced by nature, ranging from newculture. The world seen from the brain's point of view ismaterials and space to living things, correspond to this.

all unknown, and we can see that the brain is given

I think that such a way of science and technology will

variables that must be handled each time. So, what kind45

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -of brain power does this brain have? By reviewing

times more information than what the conventional

briefly on "brain power" of our brain, I want to consider

theory had said (Bartol et al, 2015). According to the

how we as human beings can maximize our brain

team’s research, the average synapse has a memory

power in the future.

capacity of 4.7 bits (0.5875 bytes), and the entire brain

3-1-1. Our "brain power"

can store information of about 1 petabyte (1,024

It is not an exaggeration to say that our brain, which

terabytes). Since 3 terabytes of hard disk at the current

is a network of 100 billion nerve cells gathered,price is approximately 10,000 yen, it would be about

controls almost all our activities (Herculano-Houzel,

3.4 million yen. However, the brain of the general adult2009). It can be said that it is a wonderful device thatat the time of rising from bed is extremely

guides us individuals and society in an adaptiveenergy-conserving, consuming only 20 watts of energy,

direction,an equivalent of one LED fluorescent lamp of the latest

consideringvariousenvironments

andinformation.

type.

However, it is self-evident that the brain does not

It is hard to make a judgment based on this numericalvalue on whether we should view such brain’s

possess infinite capacity.
Illusion and cognitive bias, etc., can be regarded as aprocessing capability as amazing, or think that it is only

strategy to cover the low memory capacity andthat much good. However, due to the development of IT

processing speed. For example, if you have a doubt thatin recent years, it is a fact that these numerical values

the horizon over the other side of the building may

are not necessarily so high as to exceed our imagination.

possibly not be connected, even if you have a devise

It is used for performing all processes such as exercise,with high capability, you will run out of resources.

sensation, memory, and thinking in parallel, including

3-1-2. Comparing computer and brain

autonomic innervation, so maybe it can be said that we

Personal computers in offices and homes perform

do not have that many resources that we canvarious tasks indiscriminately for us. Their abilities areconsciously use.

very high, and their memory and calculation speed are

3-1-3. "Brain power" is to adapt

far beyond our abilities. A gigantic computer like the K

The

brain

is

plastic.

Plasticity

referstoacomputer is calculated to perform an equivalent of all 7

phenomenon in which the brain is left as a form once

billion people on the planet gathering with a calculator

pushed like clay and the shape remains that way for a

to keep calculating once every second for 24 hours awhile, but I am not talking about pushing down the

day without sleeping, and finally finishing after aboutbrain physically. It is a description of its ability to learn

17 days. "K" can do this in only 1 second.3 They are

and memorize various kinds of information, and it is no

becoming stronger in chess and shogi than humans, andexaggeration to say that the greatest feature of brain

high school girls in CG come closer with such a sense

power is having this this ability.

of reality that you can hardly tell them apart from a real

Due to the plasticity of the brain, humans can start toone.

see things at the developmental stage and learn to

On the other hand, how “great” are our brains? In

understand various phenomena in the world. Even if theterms of memory capacity and processing speed, humanenvironment in which they were born and raised arebrain is already no match for the current computer. A

different, we recognize the world as a human andresult obtained by actually calculating the brain’s

constitute a society. On the other hand, values change

processing capacity has been shown. A study led by Dr.

by changing biological responses, clothes, language,

Terry Sejnowski of the Salk Institute in the United

etc., according to the climate, environment, and culture.

States announced that the human brain could store 10

Because of this kind of brain power, humans could
spread to every place on Earth.
Computers can perform extremely complicated3

Commentary on the performance of the K computer by FUJITSU
LIMITED, the developer
http://www.fujitsu.com/jp/about/businesspolicy/tech/k/whatis/system/
index.html

calculations accurately and at a high speed. It is also
extremely accurate regarding followability of logic. Our

46

Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings

brain can be thought of as being superior and better inconsidered typical. For example, the probability that six

different aspects from those of the computer’s brain

dice appear randomly and the probability thatpower. The brain power of plasticity has brought many

everything turns out to be one are equal, but such abenefits to us the humanity, but the processing speed isthing happens because the random appearance is more

no way faster than that of a personal computer. I

similar to the disorder which is generally conceivable.

imagine that the weak followability of logic and the

In some cases, characteristics of these heuristics areplasticity create a seemingly illogical brain power

used for anti-virus software algorithms in the field ofcalled creativity.

computer science to reduce resources.
3-2-1-3. Information overload
Information overload is a term by Bertram Gross

3-2. From the viewpoint of psychology (cognitive
science and behavioral science)(Gross, 1965), but as a psychological term, it refers to

3-2-1. This is how distorted it isan excessive state of information that can come into

3-2-1-1. Illusionsight when you are walking in a crowded city street.

Since the word illusion is a word that is too

Such perceptual overload was thought to be the cause

commonly used, many people should be able toof confusion and loss of responsiveness. Alvin Toffler

imagineusedhypothesized that such influences were more on higher

isorder cognitive functions than sensory devices, in his

itssynonymously

meaning.
with

It

may

even

“misunderstanding."beItconsidered as a phenomenon induced in the sense ofbook Future Shock .

various modalities, and the most advanced research is

In fact, due to the spread of the Internet and thethe illusion in visual sense, “optical illusion." There aredevelopment

various examples such as Müller-Lyer's illusion,internationally the society is becoming one in which

Ebbinghaus illusion, Kannizzero's triangle, etc. It seems

variousthat they are categorized into several groups by moving

instantaneously. It may be more accurate to say that we

optical illusion, ambiguous figures, or subjective

are forcibly exposed rather than obtain them. Such acontours, as well as characteristics of the phenomenon.

situation should be regarded as more serious than in the

Almost nothing has been made clear as to its

1970s when the phrase "information overload" began toneuroscientific corroboration of “why optical illusion

be used extensively, and perceptual overload has a bad

occurs," but many optical illusions as phenomena haveinfluence on productivity and decision-making to somebeen found, some of which have been given a

extent, and there is a concern about the possibility of

behavioral explanation of depth perception, size

useful information being masked with incorrect orhomeostasis, or the relationship between figure anderroneous information.

ground.

3-2-1-4. Prison experimentof

eventstheandtransportation

valuescanbesystem,obtained

Stanley Milgram (1933-1984) tried to uncover

3-2-1-2. Heuristics (bias)
Although this word may not sound familiar enough,experimentally whether or not the organized Jewish

heuristics refers to a simple and easy solution thatpersecution by the Nazi that occurred in the 1930s andhumans use unconsciously when making some complex

1940s was a case caused by special people (Milgram,decision on a complex problem. This deviation of

1963).

recognition born by this heuristic is called "cognitive"mediocrity of evil" pointed out by Hannah Arendt inbias." A judgment using this heuristic is very quick, andthe record of Nazi's Eichmann trial "Eichmann in

it does not devote much brain resource. However, theJerusalem" (Arendt, 1963). Please refer to other sources

judgment is not necessarily correct, and the result offor details, but the result showed that even ordinary

judgment often has a certain bias. Several examples cancitizens, under certain conditions, could performbe cited, one of which is "representative heuristics," andextremely ruthless and inhumane acts. The problem is

it refers to the process of decision-making that makes it

this "under certain conditions," a point where various

easy to overestimate the probability of an item which isfactors are complicatedly involved, but it includes

47

It

aimed

to

experimentally

clarifytheA: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -thoughtlessness

andresponsibilities,

diffusionofknowing the answer yet. Although there is the idea that

responsibility and anonymity in a group setting, and it

it is due to the "selfishness" of nucleic acids, amino

is thought to show the vulnerability of human thought

acids, and proteins, it can be said that they were born inin a straightforward way.

pursuit of maintenance of homeostasis as an aggregate,

3-2-1-5. Filter bubble (post-truth)or in today’s term, sustainability.

Last year was a year when internationally big

Going back to the origin, what is the extremely basic

decisions were made, such as the U.K.’s withdrawal

desire of humans, the living things? While there arefrom the EU and the presidential election in the United

many criticisms on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, weStates. This year is a very important one for themust admit that he is correct in placing the fact thatdecisions to be put into practice, but as the unrestfulthere is a basic need for life activities at the bottom. It ismovements in the Middle East, the relationship withpossible to first consider food intake for maintaining

Russia over these, and the various moves in Asian

individuals, and escape from stimulation from thecountries including China are seen, and with each ofoutside world. Division and reproduction to leavethem interrelated, there is no doubt that we should keep

descendants should come next. The strategy which

our eyes on all these situations.

primates could use to maintain these activities was the

Since the Arab Spring, politics of public opinion via

formation of an aggregate, having also no particular

the Internet and their influence on the international

strength. Isn’t this nothing but the strategy that life usedcommunity have been raised as topics in various ways.

unexpectedly when life was born? Maybe the social

It was the “filter bubble" that was specifically picked up

structure was meant to maintain this aggregate well,

as a topic in last year's U.S. presidential election. Thisand the development of the brain and nerves was meant

means a case in which the search algorithm on theto operate this structure well.

Internet provides a search result based on selective

Individuals as constituent members of an aggregate

estimation on what information the user would likelyof society may have been searching for how theirwant to see based on their search history and clickaggregate should be by exchanging information withhistory, and the user is quarantined from informationeach other. This state appears similar to how cells

that does not match their viewpoint, virtually trapped in

exchange information with each other through chemical

their own ideological "bubble" (Pariser, 2016). Various

substances. It is probably because the more diverse

ghost news sites (websites with an appearance that canantennas, the more diverse kinds of information can bemislead you to believe it is a real news site) have been

captured at one time, and it will be possible to makelaunched, and information that is not possibly true havethatbecome rampant. In the increasingly diverse andindividuals created as a tool for information exchange

complicated contemporary informationized society,through such activities must be language. By using

various kinds of information including those from theselanguage little by little, their abilities for abstraction of

ghost news sites are readily available, and they jump off

things and extraction of their elements were cultivated.

to us regardless of our intentions. Under such

It seems that, thanks to this, it became possible tocircumstances, how do humans judge what is right andunderstand the laws and rules of various matters, andselect appropriate information to internalize it as theirlogic and mathematical sciences were needed toown thought?

organize,

3-2-2. Searching for homeostasis of individuals andsophisticated concepts. In addition, it seems that

aggregateshumans gained the ability to predict the future throughWhat are living beings, including humans, interested

aggregate

more

accumulate,sustainable.

and

What

understand

human

more

such acts, and ensured maintenance of homeostasis atin, and what are they living their daily lives for? Whatvarious levels.

were living things originally made for? There is now a

However, this plastic and flexible structure that foster

field of synthetic biology, and research has been done indiversity ended up having more freedom than thevarious forms on ways of life, but there is no way of

aggregates at the time of life’s birth, which were merely

48Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings

governed by the law of energy. We can say that,affairs of the cities (politics) were further accumulated,because of this, complicated conflicts have become

which enabled them to manage their present behavior

connoted in society and human aggregates, and they

with the future in mind. Perhaps these abilities

have become difficult to understand.

amounted to the ability to compensate for the fact that

3-2-3. Deepening thought through language

humans were very weak creatures.

How have we humans as primates evolved? Primate

3-2-4. Necessity of sociality - I and we -means "an animal chief," but is it really a good idea to

As stated earlier, humans were very weak and did not

position humans as that? Humans do not have sharp

possess noteworthy weapons or abilities in the natural

tusks, feathers to fly in the sky, or muscles and bones

world. Perhaps to compensate for this, they used thebuilt strong enough to overwhelm the opponent. Somestrategy of constructing an organization with multiple

aspects of sociality and tool usage are also found inindividuals. However, the social nature of humans

chimpanzees and bonobos. Information communicationdiffered from those of ants or bees, and they soonin society is also famously seen in bee dance, anddeveloped as extremely complex beings. As also seen in

imitation learning can be done even by an octopus, they

the mural paintings of Lascaux, humans have beensay.

exposed to various problems such as food, sex, andThen, what makes a human a human? One turning

diseases from the ancient times. Perhaps because life

point may have been language. Monkeys have theirwas finite, and they were very weak creatures, survival

epiglottis close to the soft palate, and the pharyngeal

as an individual (I) and as a species (we) became acavity is very short in comparison to the oral cavity, sostrong motivation for the creatures, and sociality was

the tongue is long and thin in the anterior and posterior

utilized as a means to comprehensively solve these

directions. For example, macaques such as Japanese

problems, coupled with the development of language.

monkeys, have almost no oropharynx, so the structure

To obtain food stably, humans who had acquired

only allows the shape of the tongue to change mainly inlanguage and memory planned to carry out hunting

the anterior and posterior directions. Therefore, there

collectively, and carry out agriculture. To get a betterare anatomical constraints such as difficulty in changing

partner, they developed the conceptual exchange in thethe shape of the vocal tract, and it is considered thatform of negotiation. They also developed religion andmonkeys are considerably inferior to humans in their

medical care to counter disease and death. At any point,

ability to generate and manipulate vocalic speech

they developed perhaps because they had the "cradle"sounds. In other words, it seems that the fluentof society, and because they were able to create thismanipulation of language like that of humans has beensociety.

achieved thanks to the anatomical characteristics of

3-2-5. Creatures teach the importance of diversity

humans, which makes it possible for various kinds of

It is still a mystery why nature has become so diverse.

communication to be made, forming conceptions andHowever, this diversity is very important for surviving

fostering sociality (Nishimura, 2010).

extremely complex and unpredictable spacetime, andAs an event that probably caused humans to be thecreatures are considered to embody this importance.

animal chief with this occurrence of language,

Even the same species has diversity, and eachdevelopment of the brain is of course conceivable. As

combination has produced something a bit more

the brain developed, memory of various things became

different. This gave them a means to mitigate the risk ofpossible, and the obvious past was born. The memory

the entire species being lost. This way of being gives us

has been handed down as the memory of thea very important point of view for our ways of beingorganization, and information has come to be passed

both for now and in the future.

over for generations due to the invention of the written

Through science and technology, we the humanity

language. This has made it possible for humans to have

have fallen into the illusion as if we acquired thefood and enough information to counter diseases. It is"perspective of God." It became possible to thinkpossible that know-how of social activities and thethrough various things from an overhead perspective or49

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -in detail, and even about abstract space and concepts.

obviously necessary to bear this risk. Then, how can we

However, this is only a part of God's point of view, anddraw out different viewpoints and ways of thinking, andwe can never see the whole body at once or the future.

create new values?

In other words, human beings can be considered as

I have overviewed the possibilities and limitations ofsmall parties in a vast jungle. How should this small

the brain, how people should be and how society has

community respond to unpredictable things in the

been made, and discussed how academic studies should

future? We the humanity need to be aware of thebe. The humanity has come as far as expanding its

effectiveness of the diversity given unconditionally byability not only regarding what is present and what has

nature, once again review the "excessive simplification"

been done so far but also by inventing and developing a

by academic studies including science and technology,

new framework not found in nature. The future of theand implement fostering of diversity of knowledge andhumanity will become more difficult to predict. In

the momentum to nurture it, in society.

preparation for this, it will be required to share theviewpoints and values of various things, and proceed asa team (we). Therefore, it will be required to implement

4. Pass it on to the future-

Societal

implementationofand reimplement the "emotional connection" which hasendogenous

motivation -been neglected from the viewpoint of academic

4-1. Imagine/create the future

progress, as a mechanism to encourage team building.

4-1-1. Rationale for prediction

4-1-3. Emotion that shows "acceptability"

How can we human beings predict supernatural

What is jocho (emotion)? According to the online

phenomena spreading to society, based on the logic ofdictionary Weblio, it is “how something is that evokes anatural science as the rationale? If we must give someperson a certain strong feeling, peculiar to that thing."

response to the state in which all is unknown and we

Also, it is "various strong feelings caused by touchingare given a variable to be handled each time, perhaps

or experiencing things," and as a psychological term,

we will need to take on various ideas and values, and"the same as jodo (emotion)." Jodo refers to a sensory

imagine/create the future. I think that by thinking about

response occurring in a relatively short period of time,

how we should be and making plans to head over there

and a feeling is induced by this. It can be understoodby trial and error, we will be able to overcome andthat it signifies a state in which this lasts for a relatively

create.

long time. It is considered to be a word that is close to

What can we human beings do to take on diversemood.

ideas and values?

When the mood is stable and shared, perhaps it will
shorten the distance to deepen the understanding of

4-1-2. Emotional connection and science
Since the Industrial Revolution, various new things

individuals, to revitalize the discussion, to overcome

have been invented and developed in the age of rapid

negative events such as failure, to provide a cognitive

economic development, and a lot of things have been

venue that leads the team or the community to success.

consumed at an unthinkable speed. However, now wehave taken over the negative heritage of mass

4-2. What do to imagine/create the future

consumption, and we are entering an era in which we

4-2-1. Emotional connections as the key to successmust seriously discuss the ideal form of a "sustainable

Google, a major IT company, launched an in-housesociety" for the next generation, and promptly execute

survey called Project Aristotle in 2012, and the findings

this. Perhaps it is necessary to modify the future of

were released last February. 4 According to this, nohumans and the future of Earth by bringing out

common pattern could be found, such as that there were

viewpoints and ways of thinking that used to beteams that had succeeded even if their methods had

unthinkable, and by creating values that are different
from ones we have had so far. As science and academic

4

Report on in-house research by Google
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/magazine/what-google-learnedfrom-its-quest-to-build-the-perfect-team.html?_r=0

studies are also matters performed by humans, it is50

Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings

been completely different. Adding to that, it said that aknowledge, we human beings have come to have a

key to success would be to eliminate the anxiety thatsense of versatility and even a worship-like sense forthey might be scolded or mocked by the leader orscience. Long before our language was born, and longteammates, and to use a psychological term, to nurture

before we humans were born, nature's activities had

an atmosphere called psychological safety, within the

been continuing. Our brain has developed to understandteam. Moreover, it is considered important that such an

its activities, maintain homeostasis by constructing

atmosphere be spontaneously fostered. In other words,

society, and supply and maintain food and environment

spontaneous "emotional connections" are necessary forin a stable manner. However, not only we have not fully

revitalizing the organization, and perhaps maintaining

understood everything but also have further developed

this is an important task. In fact, according to Mr.

a world largely different from nature. The brain that

Mitsuru Hisata, Chair of the Japanese Society oforiginally developed to understand reason of nature andCommunity Psychology, a community is a network ofpredict it is now able to secure surplus ability as thepeople and people, which is said to include (1) asociety and the environment became stable, and tolong-term continuation to some extent, (2) common

imagine/create new things. This is exactly the bricolage

ideals shared among the members, (3) emotional bonds,

as told by Lévi-Strauss, which can be thought to gatherand (4) contribution to its continuation and maintenance.

materials currently available in various forms, further“A large group relies on its large number, but a small

extending the knowledge system and by this meansgroup work united," Shogun Ieyasu Tokugawa said. It

aiming to maintain homeostasis.

seems that he knew from practice about the way a

4-2-3. Communicative rationality

community should be in the process of surviving theGerman philosopher Habermas said that rationality

chaos of the warring era.

which tries to persuade another is "instrumental

4-2-2. Surviving an unpredictable society

reason," which can make people a group for achieving a

Claude Lévi-Strauss, a French social anthropologist,

purpose. On the other hand, distinction was made forwrote in The Savage Mind (Le Pensée Saugage) thatthe rationality that respected the other and aimed toscience and bricolage were more parallel rather thanreachconflicting (Levi-Strauss, 1976). Bricolage is translated

communicative rationality. The three principles that are

as a do-it-yourself carpentry, and compared with actions

necessary for this are listed as follows: (1) thesuch as making full use of things and diverting them

participants speak the same natural language, (2) thefrom its original purpose or use, it refers to the method

participants describe and defend only what they believeof thinking to create new things by using small

is true as facts, and (3) all the parties participate on

differences at various levels. Scientific thinking predicts

equal terms. He regards them as transforming thesethings with its rigor and reproducibility, giving us an

judgments and views in these processes, and there is aindex of how and what to do to reach the goal.

possibility that they may change each other’s thoughts.

As living things, we must eat food. We do not bearanagreement

togetherbycalling

this

He said that the significance of a dialogue lied in thisweapons such as fangs or horns, nor do we have aregard. (Habermas, 1985)

rugged body. For this reason, we chose the measure ofIf we are to have communication as a means ofconfronting nature as a group while developing thesharing our diverse values and ideas to imagine/create

system of society. Our brain has also developed to

the future in a manner of bricolage, perhaps we should

allow these activities to proceed well. Since knowledge

not impose things but rather each of us needs to address

was coherently systematized by the development ofvarious issues with the intention of respecting the otherlanguage, it has dramatically been enriched. Thanks toparty and aiming for consensus together.

that, in modern times, at least in developed countries,
4-3. “Finding it interesting"food supply has become stable, and measures against
climate change are now also supplied stably.

There is a phrase called playful learning. This is theAlong with the development of language andeducational practice advocated by Professor Nobuyuki

51

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Ueda, and borrowing the words of Professor Jun

same size by procuring raw materials. Humankind has

Nakahara who also has been promoting this practice, it

acquired affluence by division of labor and can now

refers to “learning in which different people and things

have time to be free (Ridley, 2010). Although it hasmeet each other while having fun, which triggers

become possible to utilize a complex but useful toolchanges and noticing to be born.” (Ueda, 2012)

and knowledge related to it, the part that involves us“Playful” does not by any means mean foolinghas become extremely limited, and we may be in a timearound, but it means to play seriously. One notices onwhen only those who can see the whole picture taketheir own from playing seriously, and learns throughsteps forward. Precisely because this is an increasingly

change. It also has a commonality to the sense of being

complex contemporary society, perhaps it is necessary

the person performing the activity, also mentioned as

to live it as a community playing an active part.

one of the components of the so-called "flow" proposed

I do not necessarily agree with him, but I would likeby American psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.

to quote the new U.S. President’s words at his

Flow refers to a mental state in which a human being

inauguration ceremony.

concentrates extremely highly on what they are doing"That all changes - starting right here, and right now,and succeeds in the sense of activating themselvesbecause this moment is your moment: it belongs to you,”(Csikszentmihalyi, 2008). In other words, it expresses

by Donald Trump.7

how human motivation surfaces, and it shows the

Human thought belongs to individual humans, notmeans to make maximum use of it by considering thegoverned by anyone else. Let each of us have “a sensehuman brain and mind movements and the brain powerof finding it interesting” toward the future withdiscussed above. To put it briefly, the driving force is

responsibility, think little by little, and form it with“finding it interesting."

teamwork. That way, the future will surely be

Are we not in a situation where our academic studies

wonderful.

are forced upon us by somebody else? Are we
conducting it actively with a sense of leadership?

Keywords

According to an Economist magazine issue in OctoberBrain power, logic, unpredictable, social evolution,

2013, the survey conducted by Amgen in the previous

communicative rationality, personal affairs,

year found that only 6 of the 53 "landmark" studies

sociocentricity, emotional connection, endogenous

5

done in the field of oncology could be reproduced. In

motivation, interesting

addition, in the field of psychology, about one-third offollow-up

research

could

not

confirm

theirreproducibility, but also some authors of the original

References

theses felt that they were treated unfairly, being subject
to the reproducibility experiments, it was reported. 6 It

1) Arendt, H. (1963). Eichmann in Jerusalem. Social

is unclear to what extent this number can be generalized

Research. Retrieved fromabout, but it may be certain that the reproducibility of

http://books.google.fr/books?id=ZwjNGDPUSPsC

many papers cannot be confirmed.

2) Bartol, T.M., Bromer, C., Kinney, J.,

In the Stone Age, people created stone axes

Chirillo, M. A., Bourne, J.N., Harris, K.M., &themselves for their own use, but today there are very

Sejnowski, T.J. (2015).

few people who create and use a mouse that is about the

Nanoconnectomic upper bound on the variability ofsynaptic plasticity. eLife, 4 (November 2015).
Http://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.10778

Article written by the Economist magazine, “How science goes
wrong."
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21588069-scientific-researc
h-has-changed-world-now-it-needs-change-itself-how-science-goes-wrong
6
Verification of reproducibility in the field of psychology by the
Science magazine:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716
57Full speech at President Donald Trump's inauguration ceremony
http://time.com/4640707/donald-trump-inauguration-speech-transcrip
t/52

Chapter 5 Science Practiced by Human Beings3) Csikszentmihalyi, M. (2008). Flow: The

67 (4), 371-378. Retrieved from

Psychology of Optimal Experience. Harper

http://psycnet.apa.org/?&fa=main.doiLanding&doi

Perennial Modern Classics.

=10.1037/h0040525

4) Gross, B. (1965). Managing of Organizations. Free

9) Pariser, E. (2016). Filter Bubble (Filter

Press.

Bubble). Hayakawa Bunko NF.

5) Habermas, J. (1985). Komyunikeishon eki10) Ridley, M. (2010). Han-ei (The Rational Optimist:

koui no riron (The Theory of Communicative

Prosperity: How Prosperity Evolves). Hayakawa

Action). Miraisha.

Publishing Corporation.

6) Herculano-Houzel, S. (2009). The human brain

11) Toffler, A. (1982). Mirai no shogeki (Futurein numbers: A linearly scaled-up primate brain.

Shock). Chuko Bunko.

Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 3 (November).

12) Ueda, Nobuyuki., & Nakahara, Jun. (2012). Playful

31. http://doi.org/10.3389/neuro.09.031.2009

Learning. Sanseido Bookstore.

7) Levi-Strauss, C. (1976). Yasei no shiko (Le Pensée13) Nishimura, Takeshi. (2010). Comparative

Saugage). Misuzu Shobo.

development of the vocal apparatus in primates:

8) Milgram, S. (1963). Behavioral study of obedience.

phylogeny of speech. The Japanese Journal of

The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology,

Animal Psychology, 60(1), 49-58

53

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -.

54

Chapter 6 Issues for Universities as Institutes for Basic Research
Hidetoshi Kotera

55

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -subjects into the so-called core, major, and minor

1. State of research work of university
To think about the model of the 21st-century scientist

subjects, in addition to the research departments andand the mechanism of research work, it is necessary tomajors guaranteeing the purposes and quality of

discuss about education and research work as the role

training for producing highly skilled human resources.

of the university. There have been discussed andIn the education at these undergraduate departments

analyzed about the university’s organization and theand graduate schools, with regard to the positions andpositioning of education and research work based on

definitions of the curricula of lectures, graduation

the Imperial University Order of 1886, the University

research, and special research in master's and doctoral

Order of 1918, Basic Act on Education of 1947, theprograms, as well as master’s and doctoral theses, andimplementation of the general principles and thewith regard to the so-called three policies of "awarding

prioritization of the graduate education in 1991, and thedegrees

total revision to the Basic Act on Education in 2006.

implementing educational curricula (curriculum policy),”

Numerous books and papers were written consideringand “accepting the incoming students (admission

comparisons of domestic and overseas situations, but I

policy),” do both the faculty members and students

would like to add a little consideration from views ofhave a clear understanding? I think that faculty

education for science and technology.

members(diploma

who

have

policy),“organizing

experienced

the

and

university

The current university education is composed

evaluation currently undertaken by National Institution

undergraduate, graduate master’s, and graduate doctoral

for Academic Degrees and Quality Enhancement ofcourses. With the enactment of the Basic Act on

Higher Education, and independent external evaluations,

Education of 1947, the contents taught for three years inunderstand that many faculty members only submit datahigh school under the former system would be taught infor evaluation, and have next to no opportunity to know

the liberal arts program during the first two years at theand understand them at the present situation, perhaps.

university under the new system, and the specialized

There are many universities that have opportunities ofsubjects learned in the three years at the university

faculty development, and many other universities areunder the former system (four years for the departments

making efforts to clarify the position of their curricula,of medicine) would be learned in the shortened period

and the positions and significance of special research atof two years. Also, due to the implementation of thetheir educational system committees, reflecting them ingeneral principles in 1991, the liberal arts subjects andtheir education. However, do they regularly allow

specialized subjects are said to have been arranged as a

assistant and associate professors, who are closest to theso-called wedge-shaped curriculum. Because of this,students, to join this system design, curriculum

subjects are allocated based on a curriculum in which

examination, or reform process? I think that, as a result,liberal arts subjects are studied in the first and second

there are many young faculty members engaged in theyears, and the number of credits required for graduation

actual education without many opportunities to know

in the specialized subjects are taken in the second, third,

the contents of these three policies or how they are

and fourth years. Today, both liberal arts andreflected in the curricula and daily instructions. Also,

specialized subjects are increasingly lectured in English,

this is also true for professors.

with internationalization in mind. Due to this change, I

By the way, according to the website of Kyoto

think that education of basic knowledge as liberal arts

University, 1 the diploma policy of its Faculty ofto have been acquired by a full-fledged member of theEngineering stipulates that “To be awarded a Bachelor’s

society may have diminished. Also, with the decrease indegree by the Faculty of Engineering at Kyoto

the number of specialized subjects, it is inevitable that

University, a student must have been enrolled for thethe levels of expertise are declining due to theperiod specified, earned the required number of course

formation of larger departments.
In graduate school education, educational purposes1

http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ja/education-campus/policy/de_policy/gaku
bu_de/kougaku.html

by means of curriculum are clarified by categorizing

56

Chapter 6

credits, and cultivated a foundation capable ofthe first point of view.

demonstrating knowledge and ability of a high-level

1. Basic academic skills (basic intellectual ability

researcher or engineer as described below throughacquired through school education)

special research (graduation research).

2. Specialization:- Abilities to understand scientific knowledge on

andtheir own

quality and a global perspective.

4. Ability to think logically- Foundational knowledge in a specialized field and5. Creativity

ability to think logically based on this

6. Communicative abilities: Communicative skills- Ability to comprehend knowledge and think rationallyregardingknowledge

3. Durability: Ability to continuously enhance it on

this, and to see things with an enriched humansolutions

Professional

know-howshumanity, society, and nature, and on public based on

about

Issues for Universities as Institutes for Basic Researchvariousand listening skills

problems

7. Public morals

concerning science and technology, and

8. Normative awareness- Communication skills to understand opinions of

9. Ability to improve each other while respecting

others and to express their own opinions precisely."others and working hard together

We can regard the first item to be representing the

10. Motivation

position of the old liberal arts curriculum (present-day

11. Perseverance

humanities and social science subjects), the first part of

12. Ability to pursue one’s way of life and successthe second item representing the position of thePrimarily the university education and the research at

specialized subjects, and the other parts representing thethe university are divided into the two, and it seems that

position of graduation research. In particular, from now

many university faculty members recognize them as

on, it is necessary to acquire an ability of having an

two sides of the same coin. In addition, I believe that

overall understanding from a global perspective to

educational objectives are defined as the development

grasp and solve problems.

of highly skilled human resources, as well as

Teachers

atuniversities

haverarelyreceived

conducting cutting-edge R&D of advanced science andadequate training in terms of education, and in manytechnology.

cases, they are hired for their achievements as a

According to the result of the Basic Survey on

researcher. With respect to the above three policies andSchool in fiscal 20083, the number of the university

curriculum structure which are indispensable forstudents was 2,567,000, and that of the graduate

education even after their employment, the meaning

students was 249,000, among which the number of theand position of the liberal arts subjects and specialized

master's students was 159,000, and the that of thesubjects, knowledge on graduation research and special

doctoral students 73,000. The rate of advancement toresearch as well as screening of dissertations andgraduate school after the undergraduate program

awarding of degrees, and knowledge and experiences

continued falling every year with the peak at 15.9% inregarding educational skills and educational psychology,

2010, and it was 12.1% in March of 2016. Furthermore,perhaps the current situation is one in which they are

the rate of advancement to the doctoral programprovided as part of on-the-job training. I think that, as adecreased from 12.1% as of March 2007 to 9.8% in

result, many faculty members consider their research

March 2016, and the employment rate upon completion

and achievements in it to be their top priority. However,of a doctoral course was 58.8% in March 2007, but saw

as in the report by the Cabinet Office Commission ona change to 67.4% in March 2016. The lowering of the

Human Capability Strategy in 2003, the university

rate of advancement to the graduate school and to theeducation should primarily consider it important todoctoral program are also felt at the educational sites.

have the following 12 points2 of human capabilities as3

Result of Basic Survey on School, FY2016
http://www.mext.go.jp/component/b_menu/other/__icsFiles/afieldfile/
2016/12/22/1375035_1.pdf

2Report by Study Group on Human Capability Strategy
http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2004/ningenryoku/0410houkoku.pdf

57

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -The mission of university education is to cultivate

and as their successors. Many students have theirhighly skilled human resources. While undergraduate

primary objective of acquiring knowledge of liberal arts

departments of engineering and the graduate schools ofas broad knowledge at the university, adding high-levelengineering

contributeofknowledge in specialized courses to that, and training

researchers

andsupporttheir own human capability, so that they can proceed to

manufacturing based on science and technology inbe employed as a full-fledged member of society, it canJapan, the decline in the advancement rate to graduate

be said. In this case, perhaps it would be better to view

school leads to a decrease in the number of graduates as

the students as not having a perspective of a university

highly skilled human resources. There are a lot of

faculty member or researcher who conduct R&D in thevoices from faculty members pointing out fears on

future science and technology in Japan. I imagine thattraining of future human resources and successors who

some students naively want to become a researcher orwill be responsible for science and technology in Japan,

scientist in the future when they are children in

and problems with the current situation. In the United

elementary, junior high or high schools, or immediately

States, it is clearly recognized that the development ofafter graduation from high school when entering ascience and technology in the basic fields and applied

university However, when they go on to the next step

fields is an important element in the development offrom university to making a choice between advancing

industries and economy, as well as in the formation of

their studies and finding employment, the current

the country as the core of the global industries andsituation is that many students choose employment toeconomy. In Japan as well, the Science and Technology

be a full-fledged member of society, and it is necessary

Basic Plan notes the need to strengthen the fundamental

to discuss what causes this.

abilities and build a virtuous circulation system of

There seems to be two major reasons for the drop in

human resources, knowledge, and funds. However,

the rate of advancement to the doctoral program. One isthere is no doubt from the above figures that thisthat they feel uneasy about employment and incentives

development of highly skilled human resources thatregarding post-employment are not clear, and the otherwill support the future Japanese science and technology

is the problem of educational expenses. This was also

is at stake.

analyzed in “Jisedai o kirihiraku yushuna hakase jinzai

to

the

engineersdevelopment

who

will

Now, although the rate of advancement to thenojizokutekina

katsuyakunotameni(Forthedoctoral program in graduate schools is decreasing, andsustainable success of outstanding human resourcesat the same time their sufficiency rate is also in awith a doctorate who will frontier the next generation)"declining trend, the current situation is that those fromreleased by Research University 11 (RU11) on July 8,

overseas who desire to go on to a doctoral program are

2016,

increasing,recommendations, which are: (1) review of scholarships

whichinternationalization

means

that,

in

will

inevitably

thefuture,progress

at

and

this

can

be

seen

in

the

three

and scholarship systems for promoting advancement toeducational and research sites in Japan.

doctoral programs, as well as collaboration between

Although the actual situation of the advancement rate

differing systems and retirement income systems, (2)as described above seems to be occurring not only inorganizational collaborative projects with the industry

natural sciences but also at the sites of humanities andin the process of employment so that human resources

social sciences, isn’t it the case with educators’

with a doctoral degree can play an active role widely,recognition in that they only view the education andand (3) increasing the degree of freedom in accounting

research at universities and the decline of thefor personnel expenses and operation by public external

advancement rate solely from the standpoint of faculty

funds for improving employment environment in themembers to make claims on their issues?

academia).

I have a doubt that when faculty members discuss theRegarding employment, according to statistical data,

students’ advancement rate, they may regard thethose who have earned a doctoral degree findstudents as human resources to lead their own research

employment as a university instructor, or at a public

58

Chapter 6

Issues for Universities as Institutes for Basic Researchresearch institute or a company within a few years

multiple fields to collaborate to solve the issues in their(those who have experienced postdoctoral fellowship)

research. At the same time, internationally coauthoredin reality, but it is an issue that the employment rate ispapers are increasing. This can be regarded as an

as low as 64%. Those who find employment as a

expectation for the contribution to the development of

university instructor or at a public research institutethe economy and industry by aiming at creatingneed to have a doctoral degree, so they will not beinnovative science and technology through international

discussed here. Then, is there any incentive to becollaborative projects even in the competitive funding

employed at a company? Those who have earned asystem such as that of EU Horizon 2020.

doctorate often take an R&D job. However, there is

In this kind of environment, it is important to nurture

currently no incentive to have a doctorate, and they

young researchers in Japan so that they can play annever get to assume an upper post or receive a highactive part in the international stage. The Ministry ofsalary from the beginning as they do in the West.

Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's

However, there is no doubt that globalization will

Tobitate! (Leap for Tomorrow) Study Abroad Initiative

progress in many companies in the future, and whenis a program promoting from undergraduate freshmenthat happens, I think that there will be incentives forto graduate students to study abroad in various ways. I

holding a doctoral degree. Companies tend to think of

think that it is important to promote study abroad for

doctorate holders as highly specialized and narrowly

research for graduate students more strongly, as well as

focused, but a doctoral degree means the ability to findpromote the life of research at overseas laboratories as a

new issues and solve on their own. Indeed, they havecareer path for young researchers who have earned aacquired knowledge and skills in their specialized fields

doctorate or who have earned a research position. It is

to earn their degree. However, those knowledge andnecessary to devise a comprehensive system design soskills are only the smallest part of their subdivided

that especially a few years of study abroad will form a

research fields. Companies should value their ability tocareer path and a salary, retirement income, and pension

solve issues by acquiring knowledge and skills on theirsystem for young researchers and instructors, like theown rather than the content of the acquired knowledge

sabbatical year leave in the United States. Also in theand skills. Therefore, perhaps it should be recognized

40s and 50s, a sabbatical year leave system isthat it is wrong for companies to express that their areas

indispensable to develop a new field and promoteof expertise are narrow, and consequently, they areinternational collaborative research. There are currently

difficult to use. Also, I think that it is important foruniversities and graduate schools that have such a

economic and industrial groups to consider the structure

system. However, in reality it is not currently usedof human resources that will support the future

effectively due to the issues of teaching workload. FromJapanese industrial and economic circles, and tothis

advocate the necessity of highly skilled human

universities have shifted to a four-semester system toresources, in promoting the development of highly

make it possible to use their study abroad andskilled human resources who will be responsible for thesabbatical year leave systems, and their successful

future.

results are much anticipated.

2. How young researcher training works

3. Basic research and technology transfer as roles of

Is it enough to only enrich the scholarship systems

viewpointofteaching

workload,

severaluniversity

and posts to develop highly skilled human resources

Besides education, basic research and technology

who will be responsible for science and technology, astransfer can be listed as university's roles. Manysuggested by many? According to the PUBMEDcompetitive funds have been issued to promotestatistics, the number of coauthors of papers was 2.5

industry-academia collaboration, due to expectations

back in 1980, but increased to 5.5 in 2015. This is inand demands for industry-academia collaboration andmany cases due to the necessity for researchers intechnology transfer.

59

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Now, what is the issue here? I would like to thinkdevelopmental

about that.

universities to take on the R&D phase which used to be

In the 1970s and 1980s, many companies had research

the responsibility of central research institutes. As ainstitutes such as a central research institute or

result,developmental research institute. However, with theindustry-academia collaborative research increased.

collapse of the Bubble economy in the 1990s, names

Also, regarding the contents of research, in theand missions of research institutes changed. At thetechnical fields of materials, processing, structure, andsame time, it is perhaps also apparent in the forms ofsystem, an ecosystem was implemented for research

the decline in the number of corporate researchers

ranging from basic to applied research conducted inparticipating in academic societies, and introduction ofacademia, and basic, applied and even developmental

competitive funds to industry-academia and technology

research conducted at companies. At companies,

transfer projects.

researchers and engineers in each field worked together

itresearch,

can

be

they

said

began

that

the

to

requestdemandfor

Research is divided into phases such as "basic

to develop products. However, at present, there may notresearch," “basic applied research," “developmental

be enough talented human resources capable ofresearch,” and "product development." Among them,

integrating each technical field. After the collapse of thethe central research institute was responsible for basic

Bubble economy, the central research institutes

research to early developmental research, and thedisappeared, fewer highly skilled human resources weredevelopmental research institute was responsible for

employed. I think that, as a result, the number of humanpart of basic applied

product

resources, who have experiences ranging from basic

development. At universities, engineering departments

research and applied research to developmental

also conducted basic research by setting researchresearch and are able to supervise them, is decreasing.

research up

tothemes from among basic research based on freeTo fill this gap, the expectation and demand forthinking and exchanges with corporate researchers. In

industry-academia collaboration towards universities

conducting that research, they fostered graduate

are increasing in order to compensate for the function of

students. As a result, highly skilled human resources

the central research institutes of so-called lostwith a master’s or doctor’s degree were employed as acompanies. However, for university researchers, they

researcher at a central research institute or ahave no knowledge or experience from development todevelopmental research institute of a company. There

commercialization at corporations, and development

were few people who remained a researcher from theand commercialization, if conducted, are rarely

time when they had first been employed until theyevaluated as their achievements. In addition, it is very

retired, and in many cases, most of them assumed adifficultmanagement position in charge of R&D, it can be said.

industry-academia collaborative R&D in addition, when

They were positioned more as an expert in the technicalmany efforts and time are required only for teaching

field characteristic of the company, and many of themand their own research. From these, we can say thatwere active as human resources who could compete

most young instructors and researchers are now

with the world in the content and direction of thedispleased to engage themselves in research in thetechnology in that field. For university researchers,

development and commercialization phases.

todevote

their

time

to

engageinbecause of the high skills possessed at the destination ofThat is, in the current Japan, it should be fair to saytechnology transfer and their research institutes whichthat, the fact that industry-academia collaboration has

were responsible for basic applied research, it can benotsaid that division of their roles were clearer than it istechnology

today, and the transfer was easier.

industry-academia collaboration, owes part of its cause

However, when there were no longer central research

to the formation of the so-called “Death Valley” due toinstitutes responsible for basic research and basic

the widened distance between the universities’ research

applied research in companies with many shifting tophase and companies’ developmental phase as a result60

progressed

and

there

are

expectationstransferandinnovationsforthroughChapter 6

Issues for Universities as Institutes for Basic Researchof losing central research institutes. This also causes aenvironmental, salary, scholarship, and pension aspects)

decrease in places where researchers, who havefor university faculty members and doctoral students

completed master's and doctoral programs and earned

who will be responsible for them, the functions of

their degree, can play an active part, which in turn leads"basic research" and “basic applied research” wereto a decrease in the rate of advancement to doctoral

realized, which are the roles of the central research

programs. That is, it seems to be in a negative spiral.

institute which was lost in Japan, and amid this,Now, where did Japanese companies seek for thisdevelopment of venture companies have come tofunction of a central research institute? Since the 1990s

collaborate.

Since

university

facultymembers

up to today, companies have invested a large amount ofcollaborate with multiple companies, it seems thatjoint research funds in universities in the United States,international brain circulation and open innovation are

but they say that the amount of joint research funds formore likely to be born as well. In other words, I think it

Japanese universities is less than one tenth of those ofis reasonable to think that an ecosystem of a positive

U.S. universities. Perhaps this is due to “thespiral has been formed.

development of science and technology in basic andThen, has that brain circulation been formed inapplied fields will develop the industry and theJapan? I think that everyone recognizes that the salaryeconomy as well as the global core of the industry andsystem in Japan cannot be compatible in theeconomy” being formed, promoted in the United Statesinternational community. I think that the system design

since the 1990s. In other words, by linking clarificationof incentives for highly skilled human resources, suchof university missions of basic and applied research andas evaluation, salary, and pension system, is what wedevelopment of highly skilled human resources, as wellmust realize first to regain R&D by highly skilledashuman resources who will support the Japanese

promotionofintroducing

privategrantstouniversity's research funds and enriching responses toeconomy and industries.

companies’ expectations, to incentive systems (research,

61

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -In addition, the number of foreign students employedii) Responding to economic and social issues

is very small, and the internationalization of academiciii) Strengthening the foundational power of science

posts is not progressing. It is currently difficult to invite

and technology innovation

excellent foreign instructors or researchers to Japaniv) Building a virtuous circulation system of humanbecause there are problems of where their family

resources, knowledge, and funds for creating

members will work or go to school. We may not regard

innovation

the Tokyo area the same way as other areas. For

This iv) is in agreement with the aforementioned

example, there are some French language schools in

issues, but as I already stated, who should play the role

Tokyo but very few in rural areas. If a French-speakingof the lost central research institute of companies? It isfamily member wishes to live and have their children

extremely difficult to demand this from university

go to school, the only option is to live in Tokyo. As

facultyseen in this case, internationalization of cities and of

Recognizing the importance of fulfilling this role while

companies

organizing a group of researchers who will fulfill that

are

an

importantelementofbrain

circulation.

members

or

many

young

researchers.

function, and training researchers who will fulfill that

The following four pillars are clearly stated in thefunction and building a system for their compensation

5th term Science and Technology Basic Plan.

are urgent tasks. I think that this is our responsibilityi) Efforts to create new values for future industrial

necessary in order to hand over Japan's economy andindustries to our grandchildren’s generation.

creation and social change

62

Chapter 7

Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Cetury- A New Contract with Society Tateo Arimoto

63

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -1. Historical Transformation of Modern Society andhas the potential to destroy the authenticity of modern

Japan’s Positionsociety and modern science."
As Drucker pointed out, Japan succeeded in

1-1. Shaking of norms of modern society
It can be said that democracy, capitalism and sciencemodernization after the Meiji Restoration, for the first

and technology are some of the basic norms of modern

time to do so outside the West. We can say that Japansociety. These have developed modern society while

has built a modern society by introducing democracy,interacting with each other, but in recent years it seems

capitalism, and science and technology, which are thethat they are being shaken greatly (1). Some of thefoundation of modern society, while harmonizing themfactors behind this are as follows.

with traditional Japanese culture, social system, skills,○ Globalization of economic structure and the rapid

etc. This experience and knowledge will give usefulrise of developing countries.

lessons to many challenges towards the modernization○ Sharp changes in society, economy, lifestyle, andwhich will be faced by developing countries in theemployment due to the development of information

future. In addition, I think that Japan can play a role inand communication technologies.

contributing internationally to overcome the shaking of"The Fourth Industrial Revolution." Increasing in

the norms in society and instability of the world.

socio-economic problems such as expansion of thegap between the rich and poor.

1-3. Two big flows: domestic-first principle and○ Shaking of trust as the foundation of society.

international harmony principle (United Nations

Changes in the mechanisms of formation of public

SDGs)

opinions and policy-making. Diffusion of biased

There seems to be two major flows in the world at

information.

the moment.

○ The rapid penetration of new technology into

One is that domestic first principle, populism andsociety and its impact.

protectionism are rapidly spreading, as seen in theConcern about the social impact of new technologies

decision in 2016 by the United Kingdom to withdraw

such as artificial intelligence (AI) and genome

from EU and election of President Trump in the United

editing. A sense of crisis toward employment andStates. While one needs to watch the movement for ahuman survival.

while as to whether this phenomenon is a long-term
structural one, the basic norms of modern society that

1-2. Various discourses and Japan’s position

the West has led the way over several hundred years

Now, here are some of the discourses that discussed(democracy, capitalism, and science and technology)

such situations from the perspective of world history.

are beginning to be shaken greatly. Also, with the

Mr. Drucker, a father of modern business management

disastrous experiences of the two world wars in thesays, "The modernization process until the 20th century,

20th century in mind, it seems that the mechanism ofwhich originated in the West and then came to Japan,

international harmony and international order that theand the process of modernization of China, India, etc.,

West has led and built are destroying themselves. The

which is about to occur in the 21st century, will be

instability of the world, as seen in deja vu of the 1930s,

greatly different" (2). Former President of Harvard

return to an emphasis on hard power, superiority of

University and former Secretary of Treasury Mr.

authoritarian nations, etc. are now showing in reality.

Summers said at the Davos Conference, "The impact ofEven though it is being shaken, we cannot return to thethe Internet will be equivalent to that of thestate of tyranny, control, or non-scientific thinking that

Renaissance or Industrial Revolution." At a study grouphas been overcome by these norms in modern history.

for introduction of the Internet to Japan a quarter of a

New ideas are now necessary. I think that UN-SDGs

century ago, chairman and Professor Hiroshi Inose once

are what is expected as a powerful vision of the 21st

said in what sounded like a prediction that “the Internet

century.
At the United Nations General Assembly in

64Chapter 7 Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Century

September 2015, every country unanimously made aestablishment of professionals called "scientists” andresolution for the Sustainable Development Goals“engineers”, modern university system and seminars,(SDGs) by 2030 (3). SDGs are a magnificent attempt toexperimental research laboratory system, "Publish or

solve 17 goals such as poverty eradication, health andPerish" as researcher's code of conduct, “Peer Review”

infectious diseases, food, employment and humane

system which ensures the quality of research, systemlabor, balance of production and consumption, climateforchange, energy, water, city, ocean and forest, disaster,

distribution through academic societies and journals,

globalthrough

research support systems including grants, contracts,

collaboration between developed and developing

fellowships, intellectual properties, reward systems, etc.

countries. While the principle of international harmony

However, 200 years after institutionalization began,is being shaken, SDGs aim to secure the sustainability

today, modern science and technology is being pressedof human beings and the planet, going beyond thefor major transformation in its norms and methods dueboundaries of nations, sectors, and fields, from which ato rapid globalization and the rise of developing

great effect can also be expected from the standpoint ofcountries,

remedying the shaking of norms in modern society. Dr.

communication technologies, and responses to theColglazier (former Science and Technology Adviser toincreasingly complex global problems. For example,

the U.S. Secretary of State), U.N. Chair of thethe EU, under the concept of "Science 2.0," advocates

partnership

SDGs-STI

Forum’s

and

legal

10-membersystemadvisory

research

evaluation,theexchange,

revolution

of

and

results

informationandgroup,

the necessity of transformation in entire stage ofstressed that "SDGs will be a great gift to humankind inactivities in science and technology, from setting

the 21st century."

research themes to making use of research results.
There is also a wave of transformation in the

2. Historical Transformation of Modern Science andindustrial structure. As emphasized by the Davos

Technology

Conference (2016), we can say that it is now an era of

2-1. Whitehead’s insightthe "Fourth Industrial Revolution." With the fusion of"The greatest invention of the 19th century was the“Cyber” and “Physical,” a new industrial structure andinvention of the method of invention." The philosopher,

new methods of production and creation of knowledge

A. Whitehead continued; “Rather than focusing on

are emerging. Historically, the Industrial Revolutionsindividual inventions such as railway, telegraph, radio,

are as follows: The First Industrial Revolution (1784;

spinning machine, and synthetic dyes, we must focus

steam,

more on the method itself. It is this very method andIndustrial

way of thinking that are truly new and has destroyed theelectricity, mass production), the Third Industrial

foundation of the old civilizations” (4). Indeed, much of

Revolution

the norms and methods of modern science andproduction), and now the Fourth Industrial Revolution

technology were established from the 19th century to(cyber andthe beginning of the 20th century. Some examples are:65

water,

machineRevolution(1969;

production),(1870;

division

electronics,

physical system) (5).

IT,

the

Secondoflabor,

automatedA: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -Figure A-1

Transition of the Institutions and Systems of Science and Technology

66

Chapter 7 Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Century

Figure A- 2

The future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution

2-2. Path to Budapest Declaration "Science inprogress, it came the time to think deeply about thesociety and for society"relationship between science and technology and

The previous Tokyo Olympic Games were held insociety. Since the establishment of modern science and1964, half a century ago from now. It was around thetechnology as a system of society in the 19th century,

time when Japan's rapid economic growth began. In

the simple value that advancement in scientific researchthat year, Japan joined the OECD, a group of developed

andcountries, and the bullet train Tokaido Shinkansen line

development of society was forced to make a big

was opened. Meanwhile, the Vietnam War becamechange. In 1979, the nuclear power plant accident on

muddy and a yellow light was given to the golden era

the Three Mile Island in the United States dropped a bigof the United States. Many new technologies wereshadow on the social acceptance of nuclear technology,

mobilized in Vietnam, and the serious relationshipwhich was a symbol of advanced science andbetween war and science and technology revealed again.

technology after the Second World War.

productionofknowledge

would

lead

to

Rachel Carson published Silent Spring (1962), and it

In the 1980s, the risk regarding health andreceived a wide-spread attention in many countries,

environment such as carcinogenic substances became aincluding Japan, that suffered from environmentalsocial problem, and the U.S. National Research Council

pollution.

(NRC) established the relationship between risk

In the 1970s, the Club of Rome announced The

assessment and risk management (1983). A major

Limits to Growth (1972), and the American physicist

nuclear accident again occurred at this time, theWeinberg advocated the arrival of the "trans-science"

Chernobyl nuclear accident in USSR (1986). The world

era. In each country the environmental impact

recognizedassessment system became popular, the Office oftechnologies. It was in 1988 that the Intergovernmental

Technology Assessment (OTA) was set up in the US

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established.

Congress, and the Asiloma Conference on genetic

thedifficultyofcontrolofhuge

In the 1990s, the United Nations Global Environment

modification was held (1975). From the "golden age" of

Summitscience and technology that had only focused on

Convention on Climate Change was adopted. The

67

was

held

(1992)

andthe

Framework

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -external evaluation committee (Schmidt Committee) of

and the Great East Japan Earthquake and thethe ICSU (International Council for Science) proposed

Fukushima nuclear power plant accident (2011)

the importance of scientific advice (bridge between

occurred.

science and politics) for the first time as a world

The relationship between science and technology,

academic society (1996).

society, and politics has become deeply connected with

Then, in 1999, ICSU, UNESCO and the Hungarian

the survival of humans and the earth, not only

Academy jointly hosted the World Science Conference,

domestically but also beyond national boundaries,

hosting 2,000 people coming together from all over the

becoming complex, uncertain, and fast. Distrust ofworld, including scientists, engineers, politicians,

scienceadministrators, and journalists. In the background, there

evidence-based policy formation has come to be

was deep reflection on the value of science anddemanded in all policy areas. In the 2010s, the concept

technology in the 20th century, which was "science forof scientific advice began to draw attention globally atknowledge, knowledge for progress." Science andonce (7).

technology realized the economic prosperity ofindustrialized

nations,but

itcreatedandtechnology

hasincreased,while

In 2013 the United Nations Secretary-General'swars,

Science Advisory Committee was established. In theenvironmental destruction, and the gap of poverty. It

same year, the OECD launched an international

was a serious problem-raising as to whether science andcollaborative project on the relationship between

technology in the 21st century could go on with small

science and politics of each country and its mechanism

adjustments as it did. After a week's discussion, theand published a comprehensive report on scientific

Budapest Declaration was issued as the commitment ofadvice in 2015 (8). Furthermore, in 2014, "International

science in the 21st century. In addition to "science for

Network on Scientific Advice to the Government

knowledge," a new value was declared, which was(INGSA)" was organized and the first meeting was held"science for peace, science for sustainable development,in Auckland with the support of ICSU (Internationaland science in society and for society (6).”Scientific Council). In 2016, 600 people from 70

This is a historical event for the world's scientificcountries participated in the second meeting, held incommunity, which has observed value neutrality andBrussels (9), and the third meeting is planned to be held

distanced itself from making value judgment publicly.

in Japan in 2018.

But now, for the first time, it declared that it should

Also in Japan, the interest of scientific advice has

clearly express responsibility on the relationshipbeen growing after the Great East Japan Earthquake andbetween the scientific community and society, and act

Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident happened,

on it.

and in 2013 the Science Council of Japan published“Scientists' Code of Conduct, Revised Edition." In 2015,

2-3. Beyond the Budapest Declaration “From idea toJapan's first Science and Technology adviser to thereality" - Bridging science, society, and politics -Foreign Minister was appointed and played a major role

Twenty years is about to pass since the Budapest

in realizing the science and technology international

Declaration, which is now the basis of policies inprogram of Japan-hosted G-7 Summit, Japan-Africa

science and technology of respective countries. During

Cooperation (TICAD). Strengthening scientific advice

this past two decades, the terrorist attacks in the United

was emphasized in the 5th Basic Plan for Science andStates (2001), Lehman Shock (2008) that caused theTechnology, which was decided by the Cabinet in 2016.

global economic crisis, Palmisano Report (2004) thatJapan’s new ST policy stressed building “super smartcoined the new concept of innovation, start of Twitter

society”, called “society 5.0” though integration of(2006), the start of the G20 Summit (2008), the BSE

cyber-physical systems. They can make human centric

problem in Europe, Italy’s Laqua earthquake (2009),

socio-economic structure.

68

Chapter 7 Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Centuryy

Figure A-3 International Landscape of Science-Policy Interface for Global Issues
In October 2018, ICSU (International Scientific

In February 2017, the annual meeting of theCouncil) and ISSC (International Social Science

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Association) plan to merge (10). The goal is to build a(AAAS) was held in Boston. The main theme wassystem that allows the global science community to"Serving Society through Science Policy." As part ofaddress social problems as a whole beyond thethis, a special session was held with the theme ofboundary of humanities and social and natural science.

"Defending Science and Scientific Integrity in an age of

Looking back to the history of ICSU, United Kingdom

Trump." This session was held in the over-packed

and the United States led to form the international

venue with heated discussion amid the demonstration

scientific community that later became ICSU after themarch on the streets of Boston, which opposed Trump

First World War in 1919. As it changed being

administration's policy of disregarding science (11).

influenced by international politics, after the Second

When the prominent American scientists andWorld War it distanced itself from politics and has

powerful counselors of science and technology policy,

served as a coordinator of international cooperation in

Branscomb, Lepchenko, Holdren (Assistant to thescientific research. In recent years, through new

President for Science and Technology in the Obamaprograms such as "Future Earth", it actively cooperates

administration), made remarks, they were not those ofwith the United Nations and other countries to solve

criticism of the government, at the moment, but a moreglobal social issues. Currently the Secretary-General ofserious concern for and suggestion to the scientists andthe ICSU is signed as a Co-Chair of the UN SDGs-STI

science in the crisis. Some of the remarks were: "ManyForum, which is a forum for discussing how the world

citizens think that scientists as a group of people thatof science and technology will contribute to SDGs inuses public funds doing whatever they want”; “citizens

consultation with global policy sectors.

do not understand what science is, who a scientist is, or
why science is important”; “scientists need to

3. Direction of Science and Technology in the 21stunderstand more about the structure and reward system

Centurythat support their activities”; “the scientists themselves

3-1. Concerns and points made by scientists in theshould introspect as to why science is important tocrisissociety and promote dialogue with society." It was a69

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -rigorousandinsightful

indication

thatsoughtRevolution," and new ideas and efforts were discussed

self-awareness and resolution from scientists and thewhile facing issues of employment and poverty.

scientific community in the changing world.

Regarding the impact of new technologies such as

When we consider the uncertain and complex

rapidly developing AI and genome editing, deep

21st-century global society, where the norms of modern

concerns about the collapse of employment and labor

society are being shaken, this 75-minute discussion

structure and crisis of human survival were expressed.

gives very important suggestions on science andConsideration to the poor was also directly sought fromtechnology, scientists and engineers, values of thethe Pope.

community of science and technology, behavioral

The OECD released the “Innovation Imperative” ofnorms, and ethos. As it is clear, the world of science

the new era two years ago (13), emphasizing

and technology in the West has a mechanism and adigitization of science and technology, rapid expansion

spirit of sensitively responding to the time and calmlyof science and technology in developing countries,

accumulatingbuilding of Global Science Commons in the age ofessentialarguments

about

the

relationships between society, politics, religion, etc.

globalization,

and

new

mechanisms

that

urged

Promising young people grow up from that process. I

multi-stake holder engagement at the initial stage of

expect the Japanese community of science andstrategic preparation and program design. The EU is

technology to establish such a mechanism and spirit.

advancing the comprehensive strategy of science andtechnology, "Horizon 2020,” and it emphasizes Open

3-2. International discussion at the policy and

Science which makes use of digital technology. Among

strategy levels

them, the change in the method of science andIn 2004, the America’s Council on Competitivenesstechnology is irreversible, and it is necessary to change(COC) emphasized that science and technology in thethe values of the traditional scientist’s "Publish or

21st century aims to create human and socioeconomic

Perish," and they are developing a new educational

values and for that purpose it would be important toresearchsystem.

form an ecosystem of innovation. The so-called

betweenhumanities"Palmisano Report" (Co-chair by IBM’s Chairman

innovation will not be born unless humanities andPalmisano and President Crow of Georgia Institute ofsocial sciences are embedded in the science andTechnology) (12). This proposal elicited ‘innovation

technology system centered on natural science (Vilnius

fever’ all over the world. Since then, the policy of

Declaration) (14). This direction of the EU is an attemptscience and technology of each country has spread its

to fundamentally change the methods of modern

wing widely from the policy of research andscience and technology.

Also,emphasizingandsciencescooperation
that

qualitydevelopment to that of science and technology
innovation, and it is necessary to change the funding

3-3.

systems, universities' mission governance, evaluation

technology/SDGs/Japan's contribution

system, etc.

DiplomacyofscienceandDiscussions are continuously being held on various

Also, in recent years, at influential international

international scenes, such as the International Networkorganizations, discussions and trials have been made on

for Government Science Advice (INGSA), the World

how science and technology in the 21st century should

network of Science and Technology Advisers to Foreignbe, some of which are shown below.

Ministers, World Science Forum (WSF, Fall 2017, in
Jordan with the main theme “Science for Peace”), on

The main theme of the 2016 Davos Conference,
where global political and economic leaders gathered,thewas the "Fourth Industrial Revolution" (5). Theinternational politics, such as SDGs, cross-borderfundamental change in the socioeconomic structure thatdisaster countermeasures, social impacts of newis currently undergoing at a furious speed, scale andtechnologies such as AI, and big data and policy

driving force was named the “Fourth Industrial

formation (15). A new concept of “diplomacy of70

relationshipbetweenscience/technology

andChapter 7 Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Century

science and technology" has also been established (16),can be regarded as giving a great vision for reforming

and the world networks of young researchers such asuniversity education, research, and social collaboration

Global Young Academy are expanding.

strategy. In order to realize this, it will be necessary to

In order to achieve SDGs, many developing countries

beprepared

and

able

to

switchfromemphasized at the 1st UN SDGs-STI Forum that

academic-papers-centricism and subdivision of fields,

transferring high-tech and knowledge from developed

and actively participate in problem-solving, systematiccountries directly to developing countries with different

thinking, collaboration between natural science andcontexts will have limited effect. Customization ofhumanities and social sciences, and networks of politics,

ideas and direction with context is needed. In additionbusinesses, academia, and administration which are

to traditional public policy tools, new financial

expanding globally and dynamically. I expect that it

mechanisms

will be also possible to develop a frontier of a newandinvestment,

industry-academia

collaboration (PPP), and development of diverse humanacademic field from that effort.

resources are emphasized, and in addition to theconventional science and technology community,

4. Several Proposals for Japan’s Science andhumanities and social sciences, young researchers, theTechnology in 21st Century

World Bank, multinational corporations, large-scale

SDGs can be said to be one of the visions of thecharitable foundations, pension funds, etc. are actively

21st-century global society that are agreed upon by allparticipating in such activities.

human beings. SDGs give the great opportunity to

In order to respond to such movements that go
beyondscientificdisciplines,

organizations,transform the modern STI eco-system to the scienceandand technology community. To achieve that, what cannational borders, a bottom-up approach alone isJapan communicate to the world and what kind of

insufficient, and a strong leadership at policy andcontribution can it make? As Mr. Drucker, introduced

strategy level is indispensable as well as linkage within Section 1, suggests, it can be said that Japan is thethe domestic policy. It has become necessary to have alast runner of Western-style modernization and also the

grand worldview and historical view that Japan’s new

first runner of the new type of modernization that is

STI policy “Society 5.0” can lead to SDGs if they go

emerging in Asia and Africa in the 21st century. It canbeyond national borders, and some Japanese companies

also be said that it is an equivocal country thatand universities are already beginning to move with thisexperienced and fused the friction between globalism

orientation to SDGs (17).

and local diversity that are now occurring on a global

In this current big transformation of the world system,

scale for the first time as a non-western country. In

it is required of Japan’s science and technology

recent years, Japan has also been seen from overseas ascommunities of government, industry, academia, anda unique country that has maintained social stability andadministration to collaborate to set the new values ofresilience by overcoming the global economic crisis,

science and technology in the 21st-century global

the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushimasociety and transform the system and spirits, by sharing

Nuclear accident.

the recognition of the era and a sense of crisis from theIn the course of modernization, how did a country

strategic and policy levels to on-site levels of education

without resources, Japan, get over the such issues as

and research.

pollution to become an economic superpower? How has

If Japanese universities in the 21st century only

she fused with the universal Western-style value while

educate and study traditional fields with a traditional

maintaining the culture unique to Japan? How is sheway, they will be left out of the transformation oftrying to overcome the fact that it is the first country inuniversities around the world. It is essential for young

the world to see the aging society?

people to learn knowledge, practical skills and ways of

If we can talk about the development of Japan's

thinking that can respond to rapid structural change andunique hardships and experiences, culture, and science

diverse values of social economy. Among them, SDGs

and technology to the world in a universal language and71

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -communicate the story to the world (18), it can give(4) "Flexibility and sensitivity to new knowledge that

great suggestions and hope to other countries. As the

go beyond the boundaries and organizations."

short-circuiting

domestic-first

Strive to cultivate new academic frontiers and toprinciples are spreading to the world today, Japan could

create social values multi-disciplinary, and for thatplay a role in organizing a global collaborative system

purpose plan and operate a place for diverseas shown in Figure 3, aiming to solve international

participantsissues such as SDGs and cooperate with industry,

opportunity to tackle on new fields and activities

academia, administration, and citizens around the world

independently to outstanding students and young(19). I think that they also contribute to modifying andresearchers struggling as "data producers" andstabilizing the shaking of modern society such as that of"research workers" within a given narrow sides.

democracy, enhance soft power of empathy and trust in

Establish a place of free exchange and discussion

people, and give young people hope for the future.

to support this and attempt to establish a newprotectionism

and

to

have

discussions.

Give

an

Finally, I will make several proposals for Japanesefunding system. Expand the structure and increasescientists and engineers, and their communities in thethe capital to support development of research

21st-century.

methods,(1) "Sharing Historical Recognition." The values andassessment, impact analysis, etc., instead of justmethods of modern science and technology are

spending big money on hard science. Allocate

now at a major turning point. Think deeply about

about 5% of the funds to these activities; way ofthe development of academics and the interaction

thinking and formulation of the problem.

cross-fieldexchanges,

technology

between science and technology and society and(5) "Strengthening think-tank functions at agencies ofpolitics, about the past, present and future beyond

implementation such as those at the policy level

the boundaries of humanities and science and be

and universities." Universities, national researchaware of our own roles and responsibilities andInstitute and funding organizations should not

foster dialogue and trust between society andleave the design and reform of the institutional

politics.

structure to politics and administration but(2) “Comprehensive Recognition of Our Own Positions

formulate a vision by themselves and propose andand Roles.”practice new science and technology value, system,

Cooperate with others while recognizing our own

and programs. Politics and administration will

positions and roles, from the setting stage ofimprove their knowledge and ability to the extent

policies, programs, and research themes, to thethat they can cooperate with implementation

formation and practice of research system,

community with trust.

funding system and evaluation method, and(6) "Ethos of scientists and engineers in the 21st

implementation of results to the society. Process,Century"

ability to design, ability to create options andAbout the philosophical types, Merton and Ziman

stories will be important.

have proposed the ethos of scientists of the 20th(3) "From experts to intellectuals." Understand the flow

century1 (20). Based on these, it is necessary toof the world and the times, actively lead

discuss and develop the type of new ethos tailoredinternational conferences and joint projects forto the 21st century. During the course of doing so,

public interest, beyond areas of specialization, andnew concepts such as diversity, inclusiveness,participate in scientific advice activities. Aim

generational responsibility, and the fact thatbeyond "experts” and become “intellectuals."scientists and engineers are people in the global

Leaders of university management and policy
formation, scientific advisers to governments

Merton: “Nature of public property" "universality" "selflessness""organizational skepticism"
Ziman: "Ownership" “locality" "authoritarianism" "contractability"“specialism"
1

leaders of international conferences, etc. will be
produced from among these.

72Chapter 7 Roles and Responsibilities of Science and Technology in the 21st-Century

society will be the starting point (18). These share

5) "The Fourth Industrial Revolution: What it means,a commonality with the reconsideration of

how to respond," 14 Jan 2016 by Klaus Schwab,“Budapest

Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic

Declaration”

and

will

be

the

foundation for deeply thinking about knowledge

Forum.

and wisdom development, the support system and6) "DECLARATION ON SCIENCE AND THE USE

methods of science and technology for that

OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE," adopted by the

purpose, and the relationship between science andWorld Conference on Science, 1 July 1999.
7) "Scientific Advice – Science, Technology and Policy

technology and politics/administration to address

making in the 21st Century”, Tateo Arimoto,the global-issues such as SDGs.

Yasushi Sato, Keiko Matsuo, Hiroyuki Yoshikawa,
The University of Tokyo Press, 2016.
8) "Science and Policy-Making: towards a new

Keywords①

Historical transformation of modern society anddialogue," 29 - 30 September 2016, Brussels by theJapan’s position

International Network for Government Science②

Shaking of norms of modern society

Advice (INGSA).

③

Issues and values of the 21st-century as a global

http://www.ingsa.org/.

society④⑤9) "Scientific Advice for Policy making - The Role andTransformation of values and methods of modern

Responsibility of Expert Bodies and Individual

science and technology, and maintenance of

Scientists", April 2015, OECD, "Rebuilding Publicscientific integrity and quality

Trust in Science for Policy - Making", Tateo

Social contract of science and technology in the

Arimoto and Yasushi Sato, Science, 7 September

21st century
⑥
⑦

2012.
10) "ICSU - ISSC Proposed Merger Process- Draft

Relationship between science and technology andpolitics

Planning Framework", International Council for

Emerging technologies (artificial intelligence,

Science and International Social Science Council,

genome editing, etc.) and impact

July 2016.

⑧

Training and securing diverse human resources⑨

Securing public space for diverse discussion,11) "Defending Science and Scientific Integrity in theAge of Trump", by Robert Frederic, American

particularly for young generations

Scientist, Mar 9, 2017.
12) "Innovate America: Thriving in a World ofChallenge

ReferencesandChange",CouncilonContributingtoCompetitiveness, May 2005.
1) “Exploring a New Liberal Arts Culture for Science

13)

and Society in the 21st Century”, conversation with

14) "Vilnius Declaration - Horizons for Social Sciences

Technology Agency, July 2017.

and Humanities", September 24th, 2013, Vilnius,

2) "Drucker's Will”, Drucker, Kodansha, 2006.

Lithuania.

3) UN General Assembly Resolution "Transforming our
2030

Agenda-2015, OECD.

and T. Fujiyama, edited by the Japan Science andThe

Imperative

Productivity, Growth and Well Being", October

M. Kuroda, H. Yoshikawa, T. Arimoto, K. Iwano

world:"Innovationfor15) Global Sustainable Development Report 2015

Sustainable

Edition", June 2015, United Nations.

development,” 25 September 2015.

16) "New frontiers in science diplomacy - Navigating

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/

the changing balance of power", The Royal Society4) "Science and the Modern World", Alfred Whitehead,and AAAS, January 2010, Science & Diplomacy: A

Whitehead Works Vol. 6, Translation by Ueda et al.,quarterly publication from AAAS since 2012.

Matsuraiya, 1981.

17) "Society 5.0 and COCN Promotion Theme - Areas

73

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -and Policies to Concentrate Investment by thethe International Context,"

National Government and the Industry -", General

Y. Sato, H. Koi, and T. Arimoto, Science &Incorporated Association, Industry Council on

Diplomacy, September 2014.
20) Shakai riron to shakai kozo (“Social Theory andCompetitiveness (COC), February 15, 2017.
18) “Kagakusha ga ningen de arukoto” (“For Scientists

Social Structure”), Merton, Misuzu Shobo, 1961.

to Be Humans”), Keiko Nakamura, Iwanami

Shibarareta Prometheus (“Prometheus Bound”),

Shinsho,

Ziman,

2013.

“Monogatarinotetsugaku”

Springer-Verlag

Tokyo,

1995.

“The

("Philosophy of the Story”), Keiichi Noye, Iwanami

Protestant ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism,” M.

Shoten, 2005. “Yasei no shiko” ("La Pensée

Weber, Iwanami Bunko, 1989. Taishu no hangyaku

Sauvage”), C. Lévi-Strauss Translated by Yasuo(“Rebellion of the Masses”), Ortega, Chikuma

Ohashi, Misuzu Shobo, 1976. “Kikai to kami”

Gakugei Bunko, 1995. Kagaku tetsugaku eno shotai(Machina ex deo”), translated by S. Aoki, Misuzu("Invitation to Science Philosophy”), Keiichi Noya,

Shobo, 1999.

Chikuma Gakugei Bunko, 2015.

19) "Building the Foundations for Scientific Advice in74

Chapter 8 The 21st-Century Global Society- From the Perspectives of the Past, Present, and the Future [Overview of Lectures]

1. Science and technology in the 21st century
from the perspective of sustainability science
Monte Cassim

2.

Science and technology, human beings and society
in the post-growth era
Yoshinori Hiroi

75

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -1. Science and technology in the 21st century from the perspective of sustainability science
Study Group session held on: August 1, 2016
Speaker: Dr. Monte Cassim

ocean acidification, ozone depletion, cycles of1nitrogen and phosphorus, air pollution due toincreased dust, use of freshwater, change in land use,loss of biodiversity, and pollution by chemicals

Overview of lecture8) The order of the value sizes of economy, human

1. The way of thinking in sustainability science
1) To find a solution to a big global-scale issue, it issociety, and global-scale nature should be “economy

necessary to have a system that is not based on the< human society < global-scale nature, but it istraditional discipline-focused approach. For scientists

currently reversed.

to be involved confidently, they first need a field of9) The phenomenon called life creates large individuals

expertise as a foundation.

by re-fusing molecules that disperse and diffuse with2) I feel that there is a problem in a situation wheretime. It is a wonderful phenomenon that createsscientists or their discussions are nonexistent at

individuals with very low entropy to make theminternational conferences even though global-scale

self-viable. How should the global environment be toissues are discussed.

support this phenomenon of life? It is our issue.

3) While there is no barrier to the natural phenomena, it10) Three conditions of sustainable development of

seems that myth that you cannot get close to science

humanity toward the future: Guard of the life forms

unless you are a scientist has penetrated society.

on Earth, growth within the planetary boundaries, an

What can we do to not keep citizens away from

impartial and just society

science, but to allow them to participate in it actively11) Responsibilities of the scientists for future creation:and routinely?

Transition to an economic system based on public

4) Recognition of the spatial inclination that the wealthinterest, pursuit of order in the global society beyondof the world is created in metropolitan areas, and thatthe nation-states, promotion of exchange between

the cutting-edge science and technology is mostscience and society

rationalized in metropolitan areas.
5) While the human race has developed since the end of

2. Three concrete efforts

the Ice Age at the beginning of Holocene, the2-1. Climate change: Application in agriculture

humanity has entered Anthropocene in the 21st1) The amount of rainfall in Sri Lanka is decreasing.

century (Crutzen P.J. (2002) Geology of mankind.

While light rain decreased, the number of cases

Nature, 415. pp. 23), and I see that the era has

where a lot of rain fell at once increased. Tea fields

changed into one in which human beings change thewere usually in a dry state and no longer suitable for

global environment.

growing tea, and the quality of taste was also6) Rockstorm’s concept of planetary boundaries is the

dropping.

idea that catastrophic changes for humanity can be2) If this continued, they would lose the 200-year-old

avoided by grasping the limits of the extent to which

wisdom of the tea industry. It could take away

human beings can survive.

400,000 jobs in Sri Lanka with a population of just7) The nine planetary boundaries: Climate change,

20 million, which could lead to deterioration of
public security and decline of its national power. For
this reason, I was contracted by the administration to

1

Director, Kyoto Museum of World Peace, Ritsumeikan University,and Professor, Ritsumeikan Research Center for Sustainability
Science. (At the time of the lecture)
He previously served as a Senior Research Fellow at United Nations
Centre for Regional Development, President of Ritsumeikan Asia
Pacific University, Professor at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University,
and Vice-Chancellor of Ritsumeikan Trust. His areas of expertise areindustrial policy, environmental science, national land planning, urban
engineering, and architecture.

start a project in 2009 to reconsider the importance ofthe primary industry and allow continuation of thetea industry. As the rainfall was also declining in Uji,
this area was also targeted for research.
3)

76

I

first

recordedtheirwisdomandmadeChapter 8

The 21st-Century Global Societymeasurements. Measurements were made on indicesshape and size, allowing people to participate in afor obtaining optimum growth environments for abiodiversity survey as citizen scientists.

given endemic species, such as sunlight index,
dryness index, night cold index, excessive rainfall

3. Summaryand humidity indices, and the average temperature

1) I will think about what I can do as a scientist to bring

during growing seasons. I also made sure thatsustainability to humankind and Earth as well as

measurement instruments were available at a low

practice it, in the present age of Anthropocene.

price to popularize them. I also created a mechanism

2) The grand challenge underlying the three concretethat allows integrated handling of big data throughefforts introduced is to enable technology to be

cloud services.

implemented in society, to prevent academic studies4) I provided information on scientific bases aboutfrom being compartmentalized, and to have an

climatic conditions, optimal species, seasons forincreased number of stakeholders with a global-scale

planting, and conditions to improve taste. I applied

spatial axis and a time axis of 10,000 years of

this not only to tea but also to fruits.

humanity, thereby contributing to solution of
global-scale problems.

2-2. Humanity’s happiness: Contribution by science3) Based on the network cultivated thus far, I will

and technology to serious illness

expand these efforts to India, Malaysia, and Vietnam,

1) I saw the situation of Dr. Hawking around 1996, andand continue the efforts to solve global-scale issues

I took the opportunity to set a goal as to whether the

together with society, industrial communities, andwheelchairs could be made more comfortable andlocal communities.

inexpensive.

4) Regarding the Sustainable Development Goals, I2) I developed a nursing robot and a remotebelieve that if we develop a core project, we cancorrespondence system for people with a disability

achieve multiple goals at the same time. In developing

and elderly people.

countries, they try to implement them on a 1-goal,
1-project basis, but that is not reasonable. Moves to set

2-3. Biodiversity: Promotion of understandinga big grand challenge and multiple goals and to try toacross the boundary of science and society

accomplish them at the same time will become a1) Development of Terra-Green Network.

driving force behind the people, and bring about2) I asked people to take pictures of leaves with achange. That is what I feel from my previous studies.

smartphone and created a system that could(The Administration Office takes full responsibility for

automatically identify an approximate object from its

the wording and content of this article.)77

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -2. Science and technology, human beings and society in the post-growth era
Study Group session held on: September 5, 2016
Speaker: Mr. Yoshinori Hiroi

mental health, and (3) relationships.

16) Economic affluence and life satisfaction are notproportional after they go beyond a certain level.

Overview of lecture

What

is

satisfaction:

Community,

disparity,

1. How to make sense of the present era

relationship with the natural environment, andspiritual bases can be considered as factors.

- Three historical contexts 1-1. Context in Japanese society

1-2. Context in human history

1) In The Economist just before the earthquakes in 2011,

1) Three waves of world population expansion: 200,000

the world had its attention drawn as to whether theyears ago -> stationary due to hunting, 10,000 years

declining birthrate and aging population in Japan wasago -> stationary due to agriculture, 400 years ago ->a crisis or an opportunity.

stationary due to modern industrialization.

The article said that Japan’s experience would serve as2) Cultural maturation has occurred especially in thea helpful reference to the world.

stationary phases. For example, the generation of2) The population of Japan stabilized in the Edo period

universal thoughts around the 5th century B.C.:

at 30 million, and then increased to the peak of 120

Buddhism, Confucianism, the philosophy of Laozi

million in 2005. A rapid decline followed, and it is

and Zhuangzi, Greek philosophy, Middle Eastern Old

projected to be below 100 million in 2050 and 50

Testament philosophy (Axial Age: proposed bymillion in 2100.

Jaspers in 1949)

3) I think that there are definitely more than the3) From a quantitative expansion of material production

negative aspects to the population decline.

to a stationary phase in which cultural and mental

4) The three indicators of happiness: World map ofdevelopment occurred.

happiness (2006), World Values Survey (2008), and

4) Will there be a fourth expansion/growth?

World Happiness Report 2016 (UN). Japan was
ranked 90th, 43rd, and 53rd respectively. Different

1-3. Context of capitalism/post-capitalism

cultures have different senses in viewing their level1) Capitalism aiming at unlimited expansion andof satisfaction. Still, why does Japan not have a highgrowth. The background is perhaps the exploitationlevel of happiness, where the economic level is notof natural resources and use of them as energy,low?

affirmation of pursuit of private interests, and

5) Discussion became active on the levels of happinesscirculation to other people's expansion of interests.

which would take over GDP as an indicator after

Perhaps the current situation is at its limit/turning

2010, inside and outside the country. The Cabinet

point.

Office’s Commission on Measuring Well-being
released“Proposed

Well-being

2) Bernard Mandeville (the Netherlands): Until now it

Indicators”

has been considered good to have less desire, but it(December 2011). Three pillars of its contents are (1)might be a better thing if pursuit of private interests

economic and social conditions, (2) physical andleads to an expansion of the wealth of the whole.
(from The Fable of the Bees, 1723)
3) The present situation is perhaps going in the opposite

1

Professor, Kokoro Research Center, Kyoto University. He
previously worked for the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and served
as Professor at Faculty of Law and Economics at Chiba University,and as Visiting Researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT). His areas of expertise are public policy and the philosophy ofscience. His published books include Post shihon shugi: kagaku,
ningen, shakai no mirai (Post-capitalism: The Future of Science,
Human Beings, and Society) and Jinko gensho shakai toiu kibo:
community keizai no seisei to chikyu rinri (Hope That is the
Population-Declining Society: Generation of a Community Economy
and Global Ethics).

direction to the Mandeville’s thought. Shifting
concerns to a model transcending the individuals,
relationship of human beings, altruism, cooperative
behaviors.
4) The 2045 problem: Will highly developed artificial
intelligence exceed human intelligence? The movies

78

Chapter 8"Transcendence""Lucy"

and

"HER"

are

a

The 21st-Century Global Society

1930, Keynes warned that technological innovationtranscendental trilogy.

would lead to fewer jobs, and predicted lives of5) Three possibilities: Energy revolution, escape frompeople who would be enjoying leisure time in 2030.

Earth, advancement into space posthuman (alteration

After 2000, the reality that labor productivity andof the existence of human beings). These will not be

employment are not proportional.

6)

fundamental solutions. -> Affluence of the stationary6) On-demand economy: Services to deliver necessary

phase, the concept of a sustainable welfare society

goods and services when necessary and where

Ultra-capitalismvspost-capitalism(economynecessary,connected to the community and nature)accordingtodemand.

Increased

productivity with less labor force. Uber: Protests7) United States: Budget allocated to healthcare andconcerned that it would cause bankruptcy of taxi

military. The ratio of investment in medical researchcompanies.

to the GDP is high, but the average life expectancy is7) Sweden: The unemployment rate of those aged 25

not.

years or older exceeded 20%. Even with the decrease8) Factors of the high average expectancy in Nagano

in working hours from 8 to 6, no reduction of income.

Prefecture: Purpose of life, vegetables, preventive

Managing to improve productivity through 12 hours

healthcare.

of operation with 2 shifts. What would take 8 hours
to do only takes 6. Two hours for leisure, forenriching the quality of life.

2. What kind of society to aim for? - Possibility of“sustainable welfare society/stationary society” -8) Basic income: Whether or not people work, they1) International comparison of the Gini coefficient

would receive a minimum necessary living allowance.

which shows disparity, the larger the coefficient, theA new way of income which can change the premiselarger the disparity. Japan is 5th. It belongs to theof working for income, and change the previous

group with larger disparities among the developed

ways of viewing capitalism. National referendum

countries. Households on welfare also increased fromconducted in Switzerland, rejected.

around 1995. Its breakdown shows not only elderly

9) History of capitalism: Welfare around 1600, social

people but also an increasing number of young

insurance around 1900 after the Industrial Revolution,

people.

employment creation around 1930 during the Great

2) Unemployment rates of young people in developed

Depression. Until now, there was an underlying idea

countries are in an increasing trend. Paradox ofthat people would be equal by being paid wages, but

Paradise (the Club of Rome, 1997), unemployment

along with the development of capitalism, there is aincreases as productivity rises to the highest level.

deeper awareness of the value in what cannot be

Redefining productivity and efficiency is necessary.

converted into money.

3) Societal model to aim for
Sustainable welfare society:3. What are science and technology in the

A society in which individual livelihood is secured

post-growth era?

and distributive justice is realized while these can1) What are science and technology for? Keywords

survive

for

a

long

time

in

harmony

withinclude happiness, sustainability, safety, community,

environmental and resource constraints.

and equality.

Stationary society:2) Reason for existence of science and technology in

A society in which sufficient affluence is realized

the post-growth era: Pure intellectual curiosity,

without making economic growth an absolute target

responding to social issues4) A high EPI (environmental performance index) and a3) A possibility of "science as care": Re-fusion of

low Gini coefficient are probably ideal.

sciences -> science of relationship, science of5) An era in which machines do what used to be

individuality and diversity, science of endogeneity

thought only possible for human beings to do. In4) For example, local knowledge inherited from ancient79A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -times, sciences overlapping folklore and historical3) Possibility of global stationary society: Realization

studiesof an environmentally friendly type and a stationary
aging society. Japan as a front runner. A position to

4. Final words: Possibilities of global stationary

link the modern Western civilization with Asia, andsociety and global ethics

developed countries with developing countries. It is1) Society aging at the global level. Especially rapid inperhaps in a position to lead the rich stationary

Asia. The global population will be stable at 11

economic model, and the new way of science andbillion in 2100. The 21st century is the end of thetechnology.

increase in the global population and the century of4) Characteristics of global ethics as the value principle

aging society.

in the third stationary era: (1) Finity, (2) diversity,

2) Five of the most populated countries in the world inand (3) cyclical fusion of the local and the universal

2100 are projected to be African countries (United(The Administration Office takes full responsibility for

Nations World Population Prospects).

the wording and content of this article.)

80Appendix Concrete Actions81

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -We are attempting dialogues about science and technology, and the surrounding issues and future measures, regarding
institutions, environments, and new academic fields transcending the boundaries, based on the field experiences of thenext generation responsible for academic studies, science and technology, and universities.
1. Dialogue between young bureaucrats and researchers
Young bureaucrats of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, and the Study Group
members have discussions on science and technology administration, institutional and environmental issues surrounding
it, and future measures. They have continued to discuss the necessity of understandings of history and the world andlack of environmental conditions for that purpose, budget supremacism, populist trend, lack of visits to R&D worksites
and dialogues, short-term personnel transfer of bureaucrats, circumstances peculiar to relevant ministries, bureaus anddivisions such as high walls among them and their countermeasures, interaction between the institutional structure andactivities in science and technology, differences between methods of pure basic research and methods ofsocial-problem-solving type research, positions of various funding systems and their relationships with how
21st-century science and technology should be.
At the beginning of a meeting, they conduct
Biblio-battle (introduction of the books thatparticipants have recently read and their thoughts),
expressing their recognitions of problems as
individuals, and discussions start. The contents ofthe discussions are summarized in a newsletter
format.
The sessions were held on the following dates:
The first session on December 21, 2015
The second session on March 25, 2016
Place:
Kasumigaseki Knowledge Square Expert Club

2. Dialogues by young researchers - Exploring new academic fields transcending boundaries Young researchers gather and aim to reconstruct
the scientific community by refining their areas ofexpertise, and discussing exploration and pioneeringof new academic fields that are not confined to theprevious systems.
Each speaker is asked to present the appeals of
theirresearch,

with

the

aim

of

potential

collaboration in their following research. Video areavailable on the Internet for regarding thediscussions.
The session is held about once a month.
Place: International Institute for Advanced Studies

82Appendix

Concrete Actions

3. Regional Meeting of Asian Young Scientists Association
In March 2016, the Science Council of Japan and theInternational Institute for Advanced Studies collaboratively
held the Asia subcommittee meeting of The Global Young
Academy (GYA), an international organization of young
scientists

aimingforsocialcontributionofscience.

Discussions were held on measures to solve issues bytranscending the differences of academic fields, cultures, andnations, by extracting issues that are of global scale as well as
cross-sectional themes, including mutual understanding forscientific education, scientific diplomacy, and sustainability.
The future issues raised were: “realizing an inclusive society"and “countermeasures with clear effects to realize asustainable ecosystem."
Meeting held on: March 16 - 18, 2016
Place: Science Council of Japan
4. All-field-collective Symposium: “The Academic World”
Meeting held on: February 22, 2018
Place: 5F, Symposium Hall, International Science Innovation Building, Kyoto University
Organized by: Center for the Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University
Co-organized by: International Institute for Advanced Studies, Suntory Foundation
This symposium was held with the proposal of Associate Professor Naoki Miyano of Center for the Promotion ofInterdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University (member of this Study Group), organized by Center for the
Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University and co-organized by Suntory Foundation andInternational Institute for Advanced Studies.
Young researchers in all 79 fields of Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research gathered from all over the place to sharevisions and issues in their respective fields, to get an overall picture of the directions of the academics and science andtechnology, and frameworks for promoting and evaluating them. With this, they tried to make it an opportunity to forma network of exchanges for the future’s young researchers to link different fields and discuss pioneering of newacademic fields.
A total of 93 people participated in the symposium from 75 fields out of 79, with 1 to 2 persons from each. The agegroups of 30s and 40s occupied three quarters of all. In addition, about one-third attended from outside the westside ofJapan. Each participant gave their opinions to the 33 questions posed by Dr. Miyano of the Center for the Promotion ofInterdisciplinary Education and Research at Kyoto University.
In Session 1, questions regarding basic information were asked, which could be answered based on facts as you cansee below. The answers varied between arts and literature, and the scientific fields.
[Question examples]- The number of pages per paper, the average number of authors?
- The frequency of publication of academic journals in your field, the average number of papers written per year by aresearcher?

83

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice -- The rule in the order of the names of the authors to be listed when a paper is written by multiple authors?
-The name of the academic society of your main affiliation and its number of members?
- When you are evaluated for your achievement of presenting at an international conference, which are valued more,
books or papers?
-The Annual research expenses of researchers in your field?
In Session 2, questions were asked about visions and issues in each field. For example, to the question, “what is theinteresting thing about doing research,” there were answers such as “When something unexpected or unknown happens
and when I feel I have come to see part of the truth, I feel intrigued,” and they were rather common answers. On theother hand, regarding the “implicit premises,” answers were given which were characteristic of the respective fields,
including “educational institutions / family is important / differences between individuals and groups / the brain isamazing / science will move forward / what happens to a mouse will happen to a human.
[Question examples]- When asked from a junior high school student, “What is the field of ○○, and what kind of thing do you research on,”
how would you explain it?
- In your field, what is the moment when you think “doing research is interesting”?
- What kind of paper is would you think “This is amazing! Good article!” in your field?
- The image of an outstanding researcher in your field?
- “This is the weird thing about my field”- The forbidden words and phrases in your field?
- The implicit premises of your field with which the field will collapse if you doubt
In the final session, questions were cast about common items in thepreceding discussions. Many opinions were given on futurecontinuation and development of the program, including holding suchan event in the eastside of Japan and doing it in a specific field such asengineering. Others expressed their opinions such as that this attempt
became an opportunity for them to be conscious of other fields or toreflect on themselves as researchers, as they had a chance to get an
overview of the world of academics, as well as that they wereintellectually stimulated which were different from what they get indaily life of research.
[Question examples]-

Better society, better life; how would you talk about them in yourfield?
-

What has to happen in what way for something to be “good”?

-

Do you think the world can be described by symbols (languages,

mathematical expressions, etc.)?
-

Comments on the day
This was an attempt to reconsider the current academic fields byencompassing the fields, visualizing and sharing specific, actual voicesof the research sites. By the observation of the researchers who workon the actual research sites who come to a voluntarily come to a place
like this, I was able to see that there were not a few researchers who

84Appendix

Concrete Actions

were conscious of issues regarding the directions of the academic fields and science and technology, and frameworks
for evaluation. With this as the first step, we will continue our activities to transform the voices of young to mid-levelresearchers into a larger movement.

85

86

B : Sustainability of Human Survival- Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100 -Principal Investigator Takamitsu Sawa

87

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

88

Introduction Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society

The term sustainability has come to be frequently used since the incorporation of this term in
Our Common Future (1987), which is the final report of the UN Brundtland Commission.
At the G7 Summit in 1988 and 1989, the global environmental issue was taken up as one of
the most important issues, and the Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted atthe "World Conference on Environment and Development" held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The
Convention came into force in about two years, and the first Conference of the Parties was held
in Bonn in 1995 and the third in Kyoto in 1997, where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted.
The Kyoto Protocol, which imposes the 41 advanced countries the obligation to reducegreenhouse gas emissions, not only struck a warning that the 20th century industrial civilization
purported to mass production, mass consumption, mass disposal is unsustainable but also
pushed for a major shift in the coordinate axes of advances in science and technology. Almost
all technological innovations leading the economic growth in the 20th century led to thedevelopment of products that increased carbon dioxide emissions, i.e., used electricity or
petroleum products as their power source. Henceforth, transformation of coordinate axes ofinnovation was inevitable.
Generally speaking, overcoming "constraints" and "shortage" is an incentive fortechnological innovation. What drive technological innovation in the 21st century have been
and will be resource and environmental constraints. Thus, at least one of the coordinate axes oftechnological progress is replaced with "more fuel efficient." All technologies have a trade-off
relationship, that is to say, the side effect becomes more serious as the effect is made sharper.
Engineers who are engaged in technological innovation should not look away from thetrade-off relationship that is held inevitably by technological products. At the same time, whenscientific knowledge is not decisive such as that of climate change, we should not neglect
taking "early actions" based on the precautionary principle. Finally, following Steve Jobs,
engineers in the 21st century must aim at owning technologies that are blended with humanities
and social sciences.

89

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Introduction Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society
Takamitsu Sawa
Immediately after that, the "International Conference

1. What is sustainable development?
The term sustainability has come to be frequently

on Global Environmental Issues" sponsored by theused commonly since Our Common Future (1987), theCanadian government was also held in Toronto. There,report by the United Nations Brundtland Commission,a shocking simulation result was reported: if we

which is the alias of the "World Commission oncontinue to increase carbon dioxide emissions at theEnvironment and Development" chaired by former

current pace, at the end of the 21st century the average

Prime Minister Brundtland of Norway, used the term

temperature on Earth will have risen by 3 degrees“sustainable development.” It is not an exaggeration to

centigrade and the sea level will have gone up by 60

say that this term has become a keyword in discussing

centimeters."

global environmental issues since then. The above

Turning to Japan in the late 1980s, the era was at thereport defines it as follows: "Sustainable development

climax of the bubble economy. People accepted massis development that fulfills the desires of today's

production, mass consumption and mass disposal as a

generation without compromising the ability of future

symbol of richness, almost no interest was focused on

generations to satisfy their desires."global environmental issues. The Toronto Summit

It should be noted that this definition receives

became the takeoff, though delayed, for mass media in

criticism that it is “too human-centered; for example, inJapan also became far more enthusiastic about"New World Environment Protection Strategy" (1990),

reportingthere exists another definition that emphasizes more

Corresponding to this, people’s attention towards

theenvironmental problems has enhanced form local toecosystem:

sustainable

development

means

achieving the qualitative improvement of people's lives

onglobalenvironmental

issues.

global.

while living within the limits of the capacity of eachAt the Arch Summit in Paris in 1989, the interest in

ecosystem that is the supporting base for those lives."

the global environmental problems showed a rising

Anyway, towards the end of the 20th century, it

trend by the day to the extent that global environmental

became widely recognized that the “20th-century

problems accounted for one-third of the “Economic

industrial civilization" based on mass production, mass

Declaration." In 1992, the United Nations Conference

consumption,

beon the Environment and Development (Earth Summit)"unsustainable" in the coming 21st century, especially

was held in Rio de Janeiro, and the United Nationsin the context of depletion of natural resources,

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

pollution of the global environment, and expansion of

was adopted. After the Convention came into effect,

economic disparity between Southern and Northern

the first meeting of the Conference of Parties to thecountries.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

and

mass

disposalwill

Change (COP1) was held in Berlin from the end of
2. From the Toronto Summit in 1988 to the Kyoto

March to the end of April in 1995. Then COP3 wasConference in 1997

held in Kyoto in December 1997, and the "Kyoto

Thewarning

sign

rung

by

the

Brundtland

Protocol" was adopted which imposed a reduction

Commission stated, “if we keep the 20th-century typeobligation, as compared with the 1990 level ofindustrial civilization as it is, we will have togreenhouse gas emissions (GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O,

compromise future generation’s welfare.” This caused

HFC, HCFC, SF6), by 8% on the European Uniona reaction that went beyond expectation, and at the(EU), by 7% on the U.S. and by 6% on Japan for theToronto Summit in June 1988, global environmental

five years from 2008 to 2012. At the same time, theissues were taken up in the agenda for the first time.

introduction

90

of

a

scheme“utilizing

marketIntroduction

mechanisms,”

includingemissionstrading,

Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society

joint

3, 2016, just before G20 was held in Hangzhou, China,

implementation, clean development mechanism, was

was largely effective for the Paris Agreement’s coming

incorporated in the Protocol.

into force earlier than expected. This is because the two

After that, COP was held at the end of every year,

countries accounted for 38% of the world’s GHG

but due to the circumstances in which the United Statesemissions, and hence, it had become quite likely thatwithdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in February 2001

the requirement would be fulfilled that “the total of

and China, which became the world's largest CO2

GHG emissions by the Parties should be 55% or more

emitter (as of 2014, the ratio of China’s emission to theof the world’s total,” which is one of the necessary

global total is 28.2%), was not obliged to reduce

conditions for the Agreement to come into effect.

emissions, the total emissions of the countries thatwere obliged to reduce GHG emissions by the Kyoto

4. The 20th century was a century of increase inProtocol accounted only for 20% of the world’s

carbon dioxide emissions

emissions, and CO2 emissions in 2014 increased to 1.6

One of the most probable answers to the question,

times from the 1997 level with the efforts of Annex 1“what kind of century was the 20th century?" is that it

countries in vain, whose reduction obligation waswas "the century of economic development andimposed by the Protocol.

growth." So why was it possible to achieve such rapid
economic development and growth in the 100 years ofthe 20th century?

3. From the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement
At COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015, the Paris

One of the answers is “because technological

Agreement as summarized below was adopted, and theinnovation came one after another.” In that sense, theclimate change mitigation measures came into effect at

20th century may be paraphrased as "the century of

the end of 2016, in which not only developed countries

innovation." So why did technological innovation

but also emerging countries and developing countries

occur one after another in the 20th century? One of thewould participate. 1) All UNFCCC Parties participate

answers is that towards the end of the 19th century wein GHG reduction efforts. 2) Keep the temperature riseobtained two sources of energy: petroleum, andfrom before the industrial revolution to less than 2electricity. Thanks to technological innovation, newdegrees. Make efforts to keep it less than 1.5 degrees.

products that improve the convenience of our lives and3) Have the peak of the world’s greenhouse gas

realize a more comfortable life have appeared one after

emissions as soon as possible, and make it virtuallyanother, but all of them use electricity or petroleum

zero in the second half of this century. 4) Verify the

products as its power source. In that sense, the 20thstate of reduction on the global scale every five years

century may be paraphrased as "the century offrom 2023. 5) Oblige all countries to create and submit

electricity and petroleum."a reduction target and review it every 5 years. 6) Set a

However, the other side of the coin is that the 20th

global target for mitigation of damages by the global

century was "the century of carbon dioxide emissions."

warming. 7) Oblige developed countries to contribute

In other words, by continuing to increase carbon

to the fund for assistance of developing countries’

dioxide emissions, we have been able to acquire

reduction, but also encourage emerging countries to“wealth." Quite ironically, it just means that people

voluntarily contribute to the fund. 8) Developed

have come to share the recognition that “the 20th

countries will contribute more than the current

century industrial civilization is unsustainable" whencommitment ($100 billion) to developing countries

the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the Kyoto(target amounts not included).

Conference (COP 3) in which about 160 countries

The joint announcement by the United States andparticipated in December 1997. To put it differently

China that the two countries ratified the Paris

when the 20th century was about to be over, 40

Agreement after President Obama (at that time) andadvanced countries were obliged to “reduce at least

President Xi Jinping of China held talks on September

5%” of the annual average emissions of greenhouse91

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

gases compared to the 1990 level (after conversion topast quarter century. The other is the environmental

CO2), including carbon dioxide, which is a symbol ofconstraints.

the 20th century, in the five years from 2008 to 2012.

"precautionary principle," we will have to spend

At

least

from

the

viewpointof

Science and technology in the 20th century set its

money on climate change mitigation, i.e., measures topurpose to contribute to economic development andreduce GHG emissions. Also, adaptation measures togrowth. However, it is certain that science andclimate change have to be taken into account. By

technology in the 21st century must set its goal totaxing fossil fuels according to the amount of carbon

contributing to "sustainable development."

content, it is possible to suppress the consumption offossil fuels, induce the development of energy

5. Changes in coordinate axes of “progress" ofconservation technologies, encourage popularization ofscience and technology

fuel-efficient cars, encourage the use of renewable

Until the Oil Shock that occurred in October 1973,

energy, secure profit from energy conservation

the coordinate axis of technological progress was one

investment. In addition, tax revenues can be utilized asthat aimed at being "bigger," "faster," "stronger" asa capital fund for investment in R&D of public andsymbolized by jumbo jets and Concorde. However,private sectors, and as a financial support forsince the last quarter of the 20th century, meaningfuladaptation measures inside and outside of the nation.

changes have occurred in the coordinate axes ofWhat I would like to point out next is thetechnological progress. In other words, the progress ofirreversibility of technology. There are definitely nottechnology has come to mean the development of newvery many cases where a technology that once

equipment with "more fuel efficient” and "superior inappeared was banned legally because it had damaged

terms of cost effectiveness." The emergence of global

the life or the environment; a product based on aenvironmental problems since the 1990s accelerated

technology disappeared from market, since people

these trends.

repudiated or refused it. To the best of my knowledge,

In general, technological innovation is driven by

this is limited to a small number of harmful chemicalsome constraints or shortages. The 21st century is often

substances such as DDT (insecticide), thalidomide as asaid to be "the century of the environment." It has two

sleeping pill, CFC which destroys the ozone layer, andmeanings. One is that global environmental problems

asbestos.

will probably become increasingly serious. Another is

Why is technology irreversible? One of the reasonsthat the environmental constraints will be the driving

is that technological innovation forms a professional

force for technological innovation.

group of engineers specializing in that technology. For

Often it is said that “thanks to technologicalthe members of the professional group, it is literally ainnovation, this world is full of things." It is certainly

matter of life and death to defend that technology. The

not exaggeration to say that devices related to the fast

second reason is that companies that produce newand safe transportation system of humans and goods

products based on technological innovation function as

including cars, aircrafts, and so on, householdpressure groups against policies that would hurt theirappliances, communication equipments, computers,

profits. The third reason is that new products provide

etc. have almost approached the realm of completion.

unprecedented comfort and convenience to consumers,

When we are asked what kind of constraints andor benefit of cost reduction to producers. Therefore, inshortages as the spring of technological innovation inorder to accept the irreversibility of technology, it is

the future, the following two will be cited. One is thenecessary to reform technology to minimize its

inexhaustible desire for eternal youth and longevity,

potential risk, and to reform the social system so that it

and freedom from illness. In order to fulfill thesefunctions to precautionarily refuse the acceptance ofcommon wishes, a large amount of public researchrisky technology.

expenditure is being introduced into life science. There
was a truly remarkable progress in medical care in the92Introduction

Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society

international financial crisis.

6. Science and technology, and globalization
With the beginning of the last quarter of the 20th
century, science (information, life) and technology

7. Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima(medical, information, environment) came into theDaiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

spotlight, instead of science (physics, chemistry) andtechnology(electricity,machinery,

When something happens that would normally bechemistry,

impossible in the light of common sense, it is called aconstruction, civil engineering). This shift of theblack swan. Its etymology is as follows. In 1770,

leading role of science and technology is also a

Captain Cook found the continent of Australia. The

reflection of the transition of the context of the era,

British who landed was surprised to see that inespecially the change of value norms from growth andAustralia there inhabited a waterfowl, whose figure

development to sustainability.

was nothing but a swan itself, but whose color of the

In particular, the development of information science

wing was not white but black. Since then, whenand information engineering, that is, the progress ofsomething happens that is supposed to be impossible“informationization," caused an unpredictable social

has come to be called a black swan.

phenomenon that brought about the "collapse of

The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake on March 11,socialism" terminated by the demolition of the Soviet

2011 was black swan itself in the sense that “the Great

Union in December 1991. Concisely, communication

East Japan Earthquake was unpredictable." That is,satellites have come to fly, and we can now see the"things that should have been impossible happened."

CNN news in real time no matter where we are in theOn the other hand, the accident at Fukushima Daiichi

world. "Iron curtain" which bisected the so-called East

Nuclear Power Plant was not a black swan. This is

and West of Europe, could block the flow of people

because, until the accident broke out, both electricand things, but could not block the flow of information.

power companies and the Ministry of Economy, Trade

The 1990s was an era of globalization. In fact, in theand Industry have been saying that nuclear power plant

English dictionaries that were compiled up to the end

is "absolutely safe" (an accident can never happen!),of the 1980s, the word globalization does not appear.

and ordinary citizens also continued to believe theThis means that the phenomenon that is signified bymyth that “nuclear accident cannot happen.” In short,the word globalization has made rapid progress since

there was a definite lack of awareness in this country

the entering the 1990s. Why did the phenomenon,

that “there is nothing that is really impossible."signified by globalization, progress all at once in the

It is only in Japan that the absolute safety myth

last decade of the 20th century?

passes. For example, the nuclear plant maker Areva in

One of the answers is "collapse of socialism" and theFrance, where nuclear power plants account for moreother is "progress of informationization." According tothan 70% of its electricity supply, constantly keeps

the data released by the Bank for International

robots and wastewater treatment equipment ready inSettlements (BIS), exchange transactions exceeding 2case of an accident. If Japan's nuclear plant maker,

trillion dollars per day have come to be traded recently,

Toshiba, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries doand this is because it became possible to instantly makethe same thing, the trust in the myth of absolute safety

transactions of huge amounts of money simply by

will be shaken, and consequently add fuel to theclicking on the computer mouse.

anti-nuclear fire. After March 11, 2011, both the

For better or worse, the parent of the "age of

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and thespeculation" from the late 1980s to the 1990s was noelectric power companies had no choice but to drop

one else but information communication technology

down the sign of "absolute safety."(ICT). Financial engineering created various financial

Prime Minister Abe officially announced at the G7

derivatives, and these came to be put into theSummit in June 2015 about reducing GHG emissions

international financial market. As a result, declining

by 26% from the 2013 level by 2030. In order tohousing prices in the United States triggered the 2008

achieve the goal, he said that 20~22% of electricity

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would be supplied by the nuclear power plants, and

FIT, which originally started in Germany, deserves

22~24% would be covered by renewable energy

praise as a representative example of effective social

including large-scaled hydraulic power. In order totechnology. However, it has to be pointed out that, theachieve the above nuclear power plant ratio, it is

only difficulty is that we cannot avoid the problem ofnecessary to apply the exceptional provision of theimpartiality as to whether or not it is acceptable that therevised Reactor Regulation Act (with extension of up

difference between the purchase fee and the electricity

to 20 years) which sets the life expectancy as "40 years

charge be covered by raising the electricity price.

in principle" for almost all nuclear power plants.

I will summarize the trends in crude oil prices in the

According to experts' calculation, as long as it

past decade. Although it fell in response to thecomplies with the “40-years principle," even if the twointernational

plants currently under construction are added, theunprecedented high price of 134 dollars per barrel innuclear power plant ratio will still be 15% at most.

June 2008, it stayed between 80 to 110 dollars from

After the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear

July 2009 to December 2014. However, it fell sharply

Power Plant, with the construction costs nearly doubled

to 41 dollars in August 2015, and after that it has beenas regulations were strengthened, and also with thein the upper half of $40s to lower half of $50s.

financialcrisisafter

reachingthegrowth rate of electricity demand having declined, it

The cause of the sharp fall in the middle of 2015 was

can be inferred that electric power companies willthat the OPEC General Assembly in November 2014

never have intention to newly construct nuclear power

decided to stop their reduction in crude oil production

plants.

in order to block the development of the shale oil fields

There is much debate about whether nuclear power

which was progressing in North America. The marginal

generation cost is higher or lower than thermal power

cost of shale oil is around 50 dollars per barrel.

generation and renewable energy generation. If I may

Including amortization expenses for the facility, it isstate my opinion on this point, it is as follows: As far as

not profitable unless the price of crude oil is aroundthe average cost including the amortization of the

100 dollars. If the price of crude oil remains around 50

equipmentisdollars in the coming years, development investment inconcerned, nuclear power plants are more expensive

shale oil fields will have to be postponed. For Japan's

than other sources such as thermal power plants andeconomy, which relies on import from overseas forrenewable energy sources. However, as far as the

99% of its crude oil, the transition at the low price ofmarginal cost of running(powerplant)

initially

invested

existing facilities iscrude oil should be welcome, but it cannot be content

concerned, nuclear power plants are overwhelminglywith the fact freely. This is because the comparative

inexpensive compared to thermal power plants. It isadvantage of the development of fuel-efficient cars thatsaid that the marginal cost of the nuclear power plant isJapanese car makers are good at will be compromised.

nearly one yen per one kWh. That is why power

In April 2012, Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of Bank

companies are keen on restarting nuclear power plants.

of Japan pledged to "cause inflation of 2% per annum

In addition, just to be sure, the marginal cost of

in the next two years.”

renewable energy generation is zero.

achieving the goal by nearly unlimited purchase of

Although he aimed at

It seemed that the “fixed price purchase scheme ofgovernment bonds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF),

renewable energy” (Japanese version of FIT: Feed in

declines in crude oil prices are said to have blocked

Tariff) implemented in July 2012 would spur the

consumers’ price hike. Although there is an inclination

spread of renewable energy, but due to the lowering of

to say that the depreciation of crude oil in recent years

the fixed purchase price, the penetration rate is in a

is called "reverse oil shock," it is a fact that is hard tostate of cease. Trends in the ratio of detached anddeny that the Japanese economy is also suffering aowned houses where solar panels are installed on theconsiderable positive influence of the reverse oil shock.

roof are as follows: It was 0.9% in 2003, whichmarkedly increased to 1.6% in 2008 and 4.6% in 2013.

94

Introduction

Science and Technology towards Sustainable Society

could not hope for innovation in science and8. Conclusion
It should not be an overstatement to say that every

technology without knowledge of humanities andpiece of technology always has a trade-off relationshipsocial sciences, when he made the following well-saidin itself. Examples include effects and adverse effects

remark at the announcement of iPad 2 in March 2011:of medical products, clinical application of iPS cells"To develop a product that makes our hearts sing likeand possibility of its canceration, insurance application

the iPad 2, technology alone is not enough. We needof high-priced drugs and its financial burden, risk of antechnology married with liberal arts or humanities."

accident of nuclear power plants, destruction of natural

In order to refine the "thinking ability, judgment

environment due to large-scale public works, social

ability, and expressiveness" that the Ministry of

impacts for better or worse due to the spread of digital

Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

devices.

talks about, not only learning mathematics and physics

In considering how science and technology should

but also learning literature, philosophy, history andbe in the future, the "precautionary principle" should besocial sciences, and cultivating a critical spirit are

adopted more actively. The question is being asked on

indispensable. I would like engineers involved inwhether judgements on the pros and cons of geneticallytechnological innovation to be the owner of such a

modified crops, and the pros and cons of measures

critical spirit that criticizes existing technologies. I do

against global warming (reduction of carbon dioxide

not want them to forget that criticism is the source ofemissions) should be made based on the “precautionary

creation.

principle” or “sufficient scientific knowledge” isIn the former Soviet Union and China, the majority

needed. In the former case, unnecessary costs have toof themembers of theparliament,

high-levelbe paid, whereas in the latter case there is thebureaucrats, and corporate managers were originallypossibility of falling into a situation in which it is "tooengineers, and many intellectuals in humanities andlate!" (it is irrevocable).

social sciences were excluded. Countries like those

So far, I mentioned the trade-off relationship that iswere supposed to have disappeared in line with theheld by all kinds of science and technology and thecollapse of the former Soviet Union in December 1991,

precautionary principle, but it is indispensable tobut over the past two years, the signs of totalitarian

incorporate the knowledge of scholars in humanities

rebuild that can threaten liberalism and democracy

and social scientists in deriving the optimum solution

showing everywhere. In order to block the way to theon how to reach a compromise for these problems.

totalitarian management state (to protect democracy)

Now, developed countries in the West, are under the

depicted by George Orwell in the novel 1984 (1949),

trend of moving from STEM (the initials of science,

which held three slogans "war is peace," "freedom istechnology, engineering, and mathematics) to STEAM

subjugation," and "ignorance is power,” we should not(with ‘arts’ added to STEM). In other words,

reject knowledges in the fields of humanities and social

recognition of the fact that humanities (arts) are

sciences. At the same time, it is indispensable forindispensable for thinking about how today's sciencescientists and engineers to wake up to knowledges ofand technology should be is becoming universal.

humanities in order to block the way to the totalitarian

Steve Jobs skillfully expressed the idea that we

state

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96

Chapter 1 Resource Energy

1. Options for the technology: What is possible now?
Not only human beings, but all of the lifeforms on the Earth constitute the supply chain of thematerial and energy required for their survival, using a finite amount of substances and a nearly
constant energy flow that are coming from the sun and being released to the outer space. While thisprocess is driven by energy and promotes a steady energy flow and material circulation together withother organisms, it discharges entropy to outside and performs entropy reduction and value creation
are by organizing and sophistication of its self-system. In the stable phase, the throughput and stockof materials and energy constituting the system do not increase, and only the value is accumulated.
Humans build this living system by technology. Some sustainable models do exist, and there are
options for the technology to realize them.
2. Renewable energy and future economic development
Regarding Japan's global warming target of 26% reduction in fiscal 2030, Japan has set an excessive
economic growth rate, and the amount of renewable energy introduced is small. Although theintroduction of renewable energy is making a progress around mainly solar power generation due tothe feed-in tariff scheme, but the supply of renewable energy is decreasing, and the policy of
renewable energy is not widespread in municipalities with a smaller population. The introduction ofrenewable energy has the potential of contributing to future economic development both in the"growth department" which brings in income from outside the region and the "sustainability
department" in which the capital base in the region is cared for.
3. Sustainable low-carbon society
Human beings have used technology in composing their living zone's supply chain, but the technology
itself is neutral and forms a purposeful system in accordance with the specific direction set by humansociety. Up to the modern era, technology aimed to expand throughput of material and energy supply
and increased its growth rate, started using underground resources and fossil energy, and freed theconstraints on material and energy supply rate and growth rate limited by the photosynthesis. On theother hand, the low-carbon energy system targeted by current technology is sustainable, not toward
quantitative expansion, but towards highly structured and highly efficient energy infrastructure. Thissystem has little dependence on material consumption, and the marginal cost approaches zero in asustainable state. Even in this process, energy is the driving force of the supply chain, and energy has
the function of maintaining to make a structure and creating value. This function indicates thatsustainable growth is possible.

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1. Options for the technology: What is possible now?
Satoshi Konishi
resources. Even though it seems physically difficult to

1. Basic sustainable model
Living organisms do not exist independently as bareobtain it, if an organism can develop its own route or if

individuals alone in the natural world but are always

there is little competition with other organisms it may

living and at the same time incorporate necessaryrather be easier to obtain it. And they are not necessarily

materials and energy, etc. from the surrounding

obtained directly from the external environment, andenvironment and emit what is unnecessary. In othermany are obtained in relation to other organisms.

words, they build a "living sphere” that is supply chains

Such a model of how organisms acquire energy andof materials and energy for their own survival.

resources can probably be seen in common with human

However, these materials and energy are not always

activities in many aspects. Human beings have created aaround them conveniently. To begin with, living

supply chains that includes many routes other thanorganisms live in the places where materials and energy

direct predation, which are not seen in other organisms,

necessary for themselves are relatively abundant. Also,

especially by using their intelligence and artifacts.

according to the relatively classic evolutionary theory

However, its supply chains have the continuous flowsof the observation of the nature that survivalof energy and the circulation function of materials, justcompetition is fought for over such a good condition,

as the system by other organisms. Since energy has aand those that are well adapted to the environment

conservation law and materials neither disappear nor

would survive the "natural selection" and consequently

are generated, the balance of the whole materials andwould be seen as “adapted." Certainly, the materials

energy is zero, and it becomes possible for the systemthemselves exist equally on the Earth in terms ofof the concerning organism to be driven stably. Looking

opportunities. In fact, however, if one would lookat the living sphere of each organism, in most cases it isclosely, competition for acquisition of these materials

formed in the context of circulation with otherand energy is not necessarily carried out as commonlyorganisms. Among them, each species interacts as part

given resources to any organisms under a commonof a sustainable system.

condition. Different species obtain different materials
and energy at unique times, places, and routes.
Sometimes there is a supply chain that seems to beroundabout, and organisms bother to use material
resources and energy even from places that seems to bedifficult to obtain, in a form that is suitable for themand through complex routes and procedures. However,this is the result of the optimizing the acquisition routeof necessary resources by organisms, by harmonizing
with the surrounding environment for a long time.
They do not always obtain the energy of sunlight andheat in the atmosphere from the sun and the temperate
climate, and there are cases where the energy is used

Figure B-1 Sustainable material circulation systemwith best efficiency in shade or cool areas, such as
when and where there are no competitors or there are

A typical example of this system is shown in Figure

few other constraints, even if physical conditions are

B-2. This is an example of a sustainable system -bad. Some organisms prefer dry environment rather

biosphere - in a closed system of a certain organisms,

than underwater or wet environments for water as

which has been demonstrated experimentally. Algae,

98Chapter 1

Daphnia, killifish, (and although its existence is not felt

Resource Energy

2. Sustainable structure and properties

so much) bacteria constitute the material circulation

When the energy supply chain functions, the flow ofsystem, nothing is supplied from the outside nor isenergy serults entropy emissions, and in the living

discharged to the outside. While energy is supplied assphere, structure construction – accumulation oflight from the outside, the same amount is constantly

negative entropy. Constituting the living sphere,

released as heat to the outside so even as the total

structurization itself is the system that has established aamount (J) or per unit time (W), it does not accumulate.

supply chain, and it is an entity that maintains andAlthough in the course of this cycle, all organisms

operates a material and energy circulation loop

metabolically circulate the material, and they neither

including multiple species of orgasms and has theaccumulate nor consume them. Energy is in fact

characteristic

ingested as chemical energy of the materials predated as

structuralization and complications. When plants growfood (they discharge exactly the same amount), and isand mature as trees, for example, by photosynthesis

released as heat. In other words, the material ingested asthey form complex compounds from constituent

each food is regarded as an energy medium.

elements and form the structure that they shape, andofcontinuing

andadvancingthen they form forests. Animals also make circulation
system with other organisms as chemical synthesis bymetabolism, composing individual bodies, furthermore,
self-organizing gregaloids and groups, and taking in thenecessary materials and energy such as food from thesurrounding

environment,

whiledischarging

unnecessary materials. Many systems that consume
energy, whether they are biological systems or artificial
objects, have the basic function of generating, updating,andFigure B-2

Biosphere model

accumulating

compounds,

structures,

andinformation coded within the structure in the process ofenergy conversion.

Such a material and energy supply chain, if it is not

Evolutionary selection also occurs between theseitself stable, can naturally not be sustainable. However,living spheres as the unit in the course of their

this is only a necessary condition. Even if the materialinteractions. When multiple groups of species constructbalance and energy balance seem stable in thematerial and energy circulation systems for each of theshort-term, if consumable resources are consumed

groups, complicated energy/material exchanges exist

somewhere, or if waste accumulates and environmental

between the supply chain systems, and these tend tocharacteristics change in the longer period, the supply

become more efficient and more complicated as achain cannot be sustainable beyond the range of thewhole. Resources and energy are immortal, and they aretime constant and can lead to collapse. The throughput

not really “depleted.” Between each supply chains,of the material and energy circulation can fluctuate to

however, they may compete with other systems, insome extent according to the capacity of the buffer

comparison to the time constant of the throughput offunction in the supply chain, and can expand or

supply.

contract. The long-term stable solution may include

As a result, the throughput of energy and materials

oscillating functions, but it is evident that there is noon the Earth, which is originally finite, has beenstable solution other than the steady circulationcompetitively

throughput, including oscillating functions, when it isenvironment suitable for the survival of many creatures.

sustainable.

They have already been shared, and in almost allcontested

anddistributedinansystems we see, they are without surplus, and we do notsee much of them in an unused and neglected state. In

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some cases such as the desert and alpine, high latitude,

expansion for humanity, but has drastically changed the

deep sea, where more critical circulation of resources

flow of resources on the Earth and the relationships

necessary for survival, such as water, light and heat,with other creatures sharing the flow cycle. Resource

may regulating, but in the environments where theand materials do not disappear as stated above but are

majority of organisms are suited for survival, resources

converted on the Earth by a different route from thehave already been allocated.

previous ones, and human beings discard them after use

This yields the result that almost all of each material

and leave that flow up to the environment again. Even

energy circulation system can be observed in the nature

though the humanity, appeared, the amount of solar

in a way that the effective utilization of resources isenergy that the Earth receives or the total amount ofcarried out in a sustainable manner. This is because thematerials on the Earth have never increased orliving sphere’s supply chain has continued to be refineddecreased. It is just that the flow path and throughput

and improved its own efficiency, and as they have

have changed. As a result, the circulation capacity in thecompeted in the course of evolution and reached a state

environmentof equilibrium, they are all in a state of balance. Of

Furthermore, the change in the amount and path of thecourse, not all systems succeed like that, andmaterial-energy circulation gives fatal results toobservation can be made because only the model thatsystems involving various species and causes thehappened to have succeeded has been sustained for a

extinction of many species. In many cases, this islong time on the sacrifice of many extinctions thatcaused by the exploitation of resource utilization

occurred in the many processes of evolution. From theopportunities of other species by human beings, but the

viewpoint of biology (evolutionary theory), it is said

flow throughput of circulation by living organisms - thethat the majority of the generated species will beamount observed as biomass actually - has increased

extinct, and about 0.1% will remain. In such a state ofgreatly due to human activity, and the route and content

equilibrium, the equilibrium point shifts when a neware changing. The best example is agriculture, in whichmaterial-energy supply path is developed because thea small number of breeds with very few genotypes alterthroughput changes between related systems. The

the material circulation on the Earth in large amount by

occurrence of new species corresponds to that

agriculture, livestock, and the like.

isconsumed

to

a

large

extent.

phenomenon, and due to the movement of such

Almost all observed species have been establishedequilibrium, the occurrence of the species is always

over an extremely large number of generations and theyobserved intermittently in a state of equilibrium andhave used their supply chains to carry out the energy

suppress other species and lead to their decrease or

circulation necessary for their survival. The system inextinction. The phenomenon that we call here thewhich living spheres have continuously supplied andoccurrence of a new species does not necessarily mean

circulated materials and energy in its constituent

a change in biological or evolutionary genetic traits.

organisms and environments is sustainable, while those

Changes in the living sphere, such as migration orwhose supply has not reached the steady state are all

expansion of the residential environment, changes frommerely at transient states until collapse.

diurnality to nocturnality, changes in temporal behavior

Human activities can also be described in thissuch as seasonal dormancy of plants, changes in food,framework from the viewpoint of supply of materials

among others, cause changes in the material-energy

and energy and system construction. Up to the present

supply chain. They also affect other living things andtime, viewing this historically or in terms of

the environment they are associated with. In this way

mechanism, humanity has succeeded in constructing aliving creatures appear and some prosper and others die

system that supplies necessary resources and energy toout.

necessary places in various forms. Moreover, itsTheemergenceofhumanity,

especiallyitsthroughput has greatly increased, and the system isagricultural activities and industrialization through themore and more large and complicated. However, given

industrial revolution, is a history of mere prosperity andthat the throughput of this system continues to increase,100Chapter 1

Resource Energy

it is clear that sustainability for that supply chain is notenergy throughput is merely a necessary condition forguaranteed, or rather indicating it is not in a sustainable

sustainability, and even if this requirement is met, it

state.

does not mean that permanence of humanity is

When thinking about the behavior of such a generalguaranteed. However, at least the requirements to bemodel, the sustainability of this supply chain itself

satisfied by a system that allows the humanity toseems to determine the feasibility of humanity as asurvive can be described by a fairly simple model. This

species. In other words, human beings have an option to

study will consider the system that the humanity has

extinct by inherent reasons, and that possibility is quite

created to maintain and expand their own survival, andhigh. It can be integrated into the problem of relatively

in particular, it will consider the stability of the processsimple system dynamics of stability of humanity’sthat has expanded characteristically by the methodology

living sphere model as material-energy circulationof "technology" and “economy" in the past several

system. As stated above, this stable solution of material-

hundred years.

Figure B-3

General structure of material energy supply chain

3. Dynamic characteristics of growth and supply

amount. System throughput of material and energy also

chain

determines the number of living organisms that is fed

The material-energy supply system by this organism

there.

can be evaluated the of its feasibility at each level of 0th

For example, at least for the majority of the historyorder (stock and structure), 1st differentiation (flow andof the Earth, the carbon cycle on the Earth and in the

supply chain), and 2nd differentiation (growth andatmosphere has been dominated by loops centered on

deceleration) and as a result it has been culled out fromplants. Plants fix carbon dioxide by photosynthesis,

the viewpoint of phenomenology. Many or the stableform their own structure, and the waste compounds

phases have 0th-order stationarity while vibrating(such as fallen leaves) associated with maintaining its

solutions are included. There is some correlation

structure are turned back to carbon dioxide again by

between the throughput, the total biomass of organisms

other organisms such as insects and rot fungi. Thisconsisting the system, and the amount of systemthroughput is driven by solar energy, and the energy ofstructure information (which is measured by negative

6,000K irradiated from the sun to the Earth isentropy). In other words, the system throughput

discharged to outer space by night time radiation,

expressed by the first differential amount determines

during which negative entropy accumulation in thethe amount of resources used on the Earth by eachplant and entropy emissions to the universe occur.

species. In speaking of use of resources, "depletion" isSynthesis of organic compounds and construction of

not actually the disappearance of these stocks (0th-ordercomplicatedquantity), but occurs when the flow which is the timeendothermic for the most part and plants accumulatedifferential quantity does not satisfy the demandorganic matter on the Earth at longer time constants,

101

structures

by

these

polymersareB: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

although they are in an nearly equilibrium statebasically is linked to the expansion of the population.

annually. This is also the case with the accumulation ofFood supply does not grow beyond the growth rate ofcoral and calcareous in the sea, and the result of these

agricultural production, and it has historically been at alow entropy accumulation can be seen in the form ofrate that almost always outperformed human population

fossil resources, limestone and the like. Because thegrowth.

material-energy throughput is regulated by solar energy,

If human activities are measured from the viewpoint

its amount is small at high latitudes and large at low

of material-energy throughput, the growth rate inlatitudes.

agricultureisslower

than

that

of

technology

An increase or decrease in throughput as a second

development as a whole. This is because the energy

differentiation is observed as growth rate, but this issupply density is regulated by sunlight, and the growth

also regulated by the growth rate of the supply chain

rate itself has been constrained by it. However,itself in each circulation

growthtechnology development has made it possible tophenomenon has been progressing with the-zero sum of

increase the energy throughput of humankind more

the total amount among individual species because therapidly. This far exceeds the expansion of thethroughput is still determined by solar energy by far.

population, and in today's developed countries it isThis describes the occurrence, development, and stableaccompanied by about 50 times the energy consumption

phase of the species as a logistic curve. (Otherwise itof aforementioned 2,000 kcal per day per person. This

will be destracted. This is called as a J curve.) When

expansion of energy usage, that is, the growth rate

system dynamics analysis is performed, even if thegreatly exceeded the upper limit of energy use using

logistic curves are observed in general, many vibration

solar light, and has progressed this way in the pastsolutions are obtained. It is strongly nonlinear andseveral hundred years. This is the result of the rapid

cannot be analytically solved, but it is solved

expansion of energy throughput, which was basicallycomparatively easily numerically because the survival

within the range of solar energy such as foodof the constituent organisms of the circulation systemproduction by agriculture and use of wood and charcoal

depends on the material-energy throughput.

by forest, through unearthing of fossil energy resources.

system.

This

Human activity has greatly increased this throughput

It came to be the case that the rate of expansion andby first improving energy utilization efficiency andgrowth of energy throughput as second differentiation

expanding space for energy use. That is the occurrence

had a major impact on the material-energy circulationoffertilization,system on the Earth in a form that far exceeded theselective nurturing of single varieties greatly expanded

farming.

Cultivation,

irrigation,others. However, it is still only about 1/10000 of thethe incorporation of solar energy into human survival

solar energy that is falling on the Earth. Rather, wethrough photosynthesis of plants. On the other hand, itshould keep in mind that it is not the size of energy but

is needless to say that the throughput through otherthe power supply chain using it which has the ability toplants not edible for human beings were largely

change the appearance of the Earth even though it isreduced, and that necessarily the circulating loops ofquantitatively small.

insects and animals passing through them have been

In human beings, as in other plants and animals,

destroyed or shrunk. The energy requirement for theestablishing the living spheres by this technology

survival of humankind should not have changed sodevelopment, however, is supposed to turn a certain

much biologically, and in short, it means that almost all

fraction of flow to the construction of the structure in anof energy of so-called 2000 kilo-calories a day isintentional and planned way (which is occasionallyobtained from the sun. Energy consumption slightly

incidental, intrinsically-oriented), in construction of theless than 10 MJ a day is extremely small compared tosystem of supply chain itself. The fact that the material

the sunlight of 1 KW/m2, and when viewed on a global- energy circulation system itself is larger by several

scale, human nursing by sunlight has only negligible

tens of times in throughput for human beings than those

influence. The expansion of this part of human activity

for other living creatures was realized by the reason

102

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

that, the each function of the system that captures,

accumulation when abstracted. In other words, eventransforms, and transports the individual distribution

underprocesses themselves at an advanced level, by means ofthroughput in a sustainable system, value creation as

the structure (mechanism) enabling its performance.

seen economically can continue for a certain amount.

Such enabling systems are,cities, andHere, (economic) growth is defined as the speed ofproduction systems observed as trail of humanvalue creation through structural construction within theactivities, and they themselves are the results ofliving sphere. It has a dimension of energy that is

performing negative entropy accumulation of humanequivalent to the discharged surplus entropy, and this iskind from among expanded energy throughput.

regarded as result of the growth.

farmlands,

conditionsof

constantmaterial-energy

In a sustainable system, growth is not accompaniedby expansion of physical scale and does not interfere

4. Options for the technology

with other living systems. (It happens during the

When human activity is seen from the viewpoint of

selection process. The place where it ends is the stablebuilding and driving the material-energy supply chain,phase.) However, the expansion of the living sphere of

it can be said that human beings have developed ahumankindlargemethodology of technology development in the process

throughput growth, and it has resulted in the

has

been

accompaniedbyaof building the living sphere, and made it their own.

deprivation, deformation, and destruction of the living

This building of living spheres itself is common to all

sphere of so many other living creatures on the planet.

living creatures and is not an activity or function

Although the stability of the system of humanity itself

specifically unique to humankind. As mentioned earlier,has not been determined yet, at least the influence on

plants have created a situation where it can be regarded

the living spheres of other creatures on the Earth as athat they built and dominated their living spheres longwhole is irreversible as a result of the expansion of the

before the occurrence of humanity. In addition, allphysical scale.

living creatures, from the evolutionary point of view,

On the other hand, for the sustainability of thehave constructed their living spheres and their own

humanity’s system itself, at least throughput stability is

traits more efficiently and in a more complex anda necessary condition, as mentioned previously. If thehighly functional way, for extremely long timethroughput growth curve is a logistic curve, the growthconstants.

as seen in the current human activity will come to an

However, there are quite distinctive differences in

end sooner or later. The stable phase of the logistic

time constants between human beings' strategy of

curve has zero growth rate and does not involve“technology development" in constructing their living

expansion of scale any more.

spheres, which is remarkably faster than that of other

However, human activities are also carried out in thecreatures in terms of the time constant of growth (about

construction and structuring of the supply chain itself of

1 million times). Technology development is essentiallymaterial-energy circulation. Material utilization itself

trial and error process, and the result differs depending

such as mining and collection (consumption) as theon the objective function and evaluation function, so inresources available on the Earth will not expandthat respect it is not much different from the mechanism

infinitely, after the quantitative expansion of the livingof evolution itself. However, intentional trials andsphere of humankind ends. On the other hand, almost

structure building are the essence of technology, and it

the same amount of energy is always used to drive thisis conceivable that human technology development can

supply chain and is discharged. This discharge isprovide an effective option for the survival of theaccompanied not only by the total amount of energy but

humanity itself, and construction of a sustainable

also by entropy emissions, and this is because humanmodel.

activity includes accumulation of negative entropy.

taking measures against unsuccessful system worked

The accumulation of economic value (or capital?)canbeevaluated

with

this

negative

At least in the sense that the possibility ofeffectively. It is a fact that the current advanced

entropyindustrialization and high-growth societal model are103

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

inevitably

adopted

as

the

most

advantageoushumankind can show some different options. Until now,

methodology in the process of human beings’ pasteconomic growth has been discussed without separating

construction of living sphere and its expansion.

theEspecially it worked most advantageously for theconstruction, maintenance and improvement of thegroups of human beings (such as states, enterprises,

living sphere structure, and economic growth itself issocial cohorts) that adopted and implemented it.

regarded as the purpose of economic operation.

increaseinmaterial-energy

throughput

andHowever, if this is a model that human beings cannot

Although it cannot be determined whether zero growth

prepare an outcome for other than a failure, different

would be possibly established economically, at least it

choices will be needed. When sustainability and theis indicated by this model consideration that thepossibility of survival of humanity are defined as

structure formation is possible at a certain rate evenobjective functions and evaluation functions, thewithout an increase in throughput, and that it ismethodology of "human development" given forsustainable.

104

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

2. Renewable energy and future economic development
Hidefumi Kurasaka
the base, a reduction target to a further extent should be

1. National policy on renewable energy
In the Paris Agreement, a framework was adopted topossible.

have each country release a target for prevention ofSecondly, the target for introducing renewable energy

global warming, confirm its achievement status in a

is low. In 2012, it is said that the proportion ofprescribed manner and report it, and revise the target

renewable energy is 21.2% in the entire world’s power

every five years. In revising targets, they are required togeneration and approximately 21% for the OECDaim for more stringent goals.

countries. This means that at the stage of 2012, theJapan has set the goal of reducing greenhouse gas

world as a whole and OECD countries as a whole has

emissions by 26% in fiscal 2030 compared to fiscal

achieved the level close to Japan's target for2013. In determining this target, an estimate was madeintroduction of renewable energy in fiscal 2030. On a

to supply about 13 to 14% of the primary energy input

side note, EU’s target for 2030 says that it will supply

and about 22 to 24% of the generated electricity in

27% of all primary energy supply and 45% of all

fiscal 2030 with renewable energy. The breakdown isgenerated electric energy with renewable energy.

also shown on the basis of the generated electric energy,

Compared with Japan's target, they are almost doubled.

which is said to be about 8.8 to 9.2% for hydropower,

The reason why the target level of introduction of

about 7.0% for solar power, about 3.7 to 4.6% forrenewable energy in Japan is low is because the target

biomass, about 1.7% for wind power, and about 1.0 tolevel of fluctuating renewable energy (wind and solar

1.1% for geothermal power.

power) is particularly low. In setting this target, theAlthough Japan's global warming reduction target ofAdvisory Committee for Energy forecasts that the

26% by 2030 seems to be high at first glance, in fact itamount of electricity generated by wind power in fiscal

is not.

2030 will be 18.11 billion kWh, but by the wind power

The first problem is that as a result of setting thegeneration plan included in the environmental impact

baseline energy consumption to an excessive extent, theassessment procedure in fiscal 2015 alone it reachedcontribution from energy conservation is not considered

10.2 million kW, and this is equivalent to the annual

fully. The baseline set for target setting is based on the

power generation amount of 17.9 billion kWh. In

premise that economic growth of 1.7% will continue

addition, although the committee expects annual power

until fiscal 2030. If this is realized, it means that thegeneration amount of 74.55 billion kWh by solar power

economic scale in 2030 will have increased by about

generation, the solar power generation facilities

29% compared to that of 2015. On the other hand,certified as the feed-in-tariff scheme facilities as of theaccording to the median estimate by the Nationalend of January 2015 amount to 71.62 million kW’s

Institute of Social Security and Population Research,

worth. Even if the operation rate is 14%, this number

the population will be 116.62 million in 2030, which iswill achieve the annual power generation amount of

about a 9% decrease from 2015. In other words, by

87.8 billion kWh.

simple calculation, it is required to raise the added

Although not fully considered in the study of Japan'svalue production per capita by 40% or more. This will

global warming targets, the report of the Ministry of thebe extremely difficult. The government’s calculation

Environment's subcontractor's study in fiscal 2014

estimates the base energy consumption with anestimated the amount of renewable energy that can beassumption of excessive economic scale, so theintroduced in 2030 and 2050 (Mitsubishi Researchgovernment expects thorough energy saving, but in

Institute (entrusted research by the Ministry of the

fiscal 2030 the electricity consumption is projected toEnvironment) “Committee Report on Verification andincrease by 1.5% compared to fiscal 2013. If we review

Investigation of the Possibility of Popularization of105

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Dispersed Energy such as Renewable Energy in year

humankind. In the future, in order to secure the2050," March 31, 2015). In this trial calculation,

sustainability of energy supply, it is necessary to switch

calculation was performed for three cases: higher-levelfrom a fossil fuel-based economic society to acase, mid-level case, and lower-level case. The

renewable energy-based economic society.

high-level case is one that is calculated based on thepolicy that, in general, the potential for the introduction

2. Introduction of renewable energy as seen inof renewable energy taking into consideration technical“sustainable zone" researchand institutional constraints takes full account in 2050,

The Kurasaka Laboratory and the accredited NPO

and the lower-level case was calculated based on thecorporation Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

policy to extend the trend so far. In the mid-level case,have been conducting a “sustainable zone" study since

which is the middle point of these, the amount of2005 to estimate the supply of renewable energy of allelectricity generation is projected to be 33.2% of 2012

municipalities and calculate the regional energy

in 2030 and 63.7% of the same in 2050. Although thisself-sufficiency rates. I would like to see the state ofis an estimate based only on the electric power, if

introduction of renewable energy in Japan from thatenergy saving of 30 to 40% is carried out by 2050, thisdata.

is a scale in which most of the generated electric energy"Sustainable zone" is defined as the area that can

can be covered by renewable energy. In addition tocover energy demand and food demand in that area bycontinuing capital investment, I think that efforts should

renewable energy and food available in the area. This is

be made to achieve this level by introducing

a computational concept and it has been decided that it

technologies to control the fluctuation of renewableisenergy amount including stored energy technologies.

self-sufficient.

On a side note, although there is a way of thinking

not
The

necessary
sub-concept

for

an

area

to

is

the

concept

actually beof"energythat has an expectation toward nuclear power

sustainable zone," and it is as an area that can cover thegeneration as an energy source for breaking away fromregional energy demand of its own only by renewable

the greenhouse effect gas, in the situation where theenergy in that area. Here, as the regional energy

development of the fast breeder reactors including

demand, energy demand for consumer use (business

Monju nuclear reactor is not progressing, nuclear powerand household) and for agriculture, forestry andis energy that depends on uranium which is anfisheries industries are raised. These can be supplied byexhaustible resource.

renewable energy and also can be controlled by local

In Japan, with the introduction of feed-in-tariffgovernments. On the other hand, due to restrictions

scheme for renewable energy generation in July 2012,

such as that of individual data, energy demand forthe introduction of renewable energy such as solar

factory production and power generation and energy

energy made a progress, and in fiscal 2015, renewable

demand for transportation are excluded.

energy including large-scalehydroelectricpower

The renewable energy that is targeted for aggregation

generation has come to account for 14.4% of all

is solar power generation (for general household,primary energy supply. Among them, the ratio of solar

commercial, and business uses), business-purpose wind

power generation was 3.3%, an increase of 1.1% frompower generation, geothermal power generation, small

the previous fiscal year's 2.2%. By the way, the nuclearhydropower generation (limited to waterways of 10,000

power generation ratio is 0% in fiscal 2014 and 0.9% in

kW or less and RPS-targeted facilities, but including

fiscal 2015 when Kawauchi Nuclear Power Plant andretention basins), biomass power generation (those withothers were restarted. It is a situation in which solar

a fixed biomass ratio of 50% or more, and as a general

power generation is growing at a faster pace thanrule, waste electricity generation is excluded, but

nuclear power generation that are being restarted.

cogeneration is included), biomass heat (limited to

The energy reaching Earth from the sun reaches

woody biomass but cogeneration is included), solar heat

10,000 times the amount of energy consumed byutilization (for general household and business uses),106

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

and geothermal utilization (hot spring heat and

30,000, less than 15% of them have formulated the said

underground heat). This research grasps the facility

plan.

capacity existing at the end of each fiscal year andcalculate the supply amount in a case in which the

3. Contribution to the growth department byconcerned facilities supply energy throughout the year.

renewable energy

According to the latest report, the state of

As detailed in Chapter 6, Section 1, the future

introduction of renewable energy in Japan over the pasteconomic development requires that development will

three years is that, from March 2012 to March 2016,

be made in a way that strikes a balance between

domestic renewable energy supply doubled, and in"growing department" which brings in income fromparticular the amount of solar power generation

outsideincreased by 7.3 times. This is the effect of themaintains the capital base in the region.

feed-in-tariff scheme introduced in July 2012. However,and"sustainability

department"

which

Here, migration to renewable energy has thethe effect of the feed-in-tariff scheme has not appeared

possibility ofcontributing

sufficiently for renewable energy generation other thandepartment"

andsolar power. Biomass power generation has increased

respectively.

todomestic"sustainability"growthdepartment"

2.6 times from fiscal 2012 to March 2016, but windFirst, with regard to “growth department," there is a

power, small hydropower, and geothermal power all

possibility that the technology to stably use renewablemade no progress. Also, the supply of renewable energy

energy such as sunlight and wind power, whose amountheat that is not covered by the feed-in-tariff scheme has

fluctuates according to natural conditions, and products

begun to decline. Although solar power generation got

utilizing it may create a new growth sector.

on the growth path, it can be said that the other energy

Among renewable energy sources, geothermal andtypes have not grown sufficiently yet.

small hydropower have high availability rates and are

In this research, municipalities whose calculated

energy sources responsible for the baseline supply, andamount of renewable energy supply within the given

biomass can be regarded as an energy source that whosearea exceeds the energy demand for uses by consumers

output can be adjusted. On the other hand, solar andand by agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries

wind power cause various fluctuations, and especiallywithin the area are called 100% energy sustainable zone

there is a fear that the supply becomes excessive whenmunicipalities, and they have increased from 50

the demand is small.

municipalities in fiscal 2011 to 61 municipalities inTechnologies required at this time are ones such as2014 and 71 municipalities in 2015.

energy storage technology, and energy flexibility and

It is likely that municipalities with a smaller

control technology.

population can be a 100% energy sustainable zone

Regarding energy storage technology, in addition tomunicipality, but in the present situation it is also

storage batteries and heat storage systems, there are

known that municipalities with a smaller population

methods of pooling them with materials such as

have not implemented policies that utilize renewablehydrogen, and methods of accumulating them byenergy. Kurasaka Laboratory conducted policy surveys

exercises such as flywheels. As for storage batteries, it

on renewable energy for all municipalities in 2011,

is said that autonomous energy utilization is possible if

2013, and 2015 (excluding municipalities that were

the storage battery of approximately 10 kWh and solar

disaster-struck in 2011). According to the results, thepower generation of approximately 3 to 4 kW arestate of formulation of the administrative plan

installed in a house of about two stories. For example,

concerning renewable energy by population size

Gifu Prefecture’s New Energy Park GREENY Gifu

showed that 60% of the municipalities with thedemonstrated that if we have 6.3 kW of solar power andpopulation of 300,000 or more have formulated

9.7 kWh of storage batteries, it is possible to live atadministrative plan concerning renewable energy, butnight in a two-story residence in a city area in Gifu,

among the municipalities with a population of less thanwith the power charging done during the day. GREENY

107

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Gifu purchased 9.7 kWh lithium storage battery madebeing discharged at the manufacturing stage. In theby a domestic manufacturer for 5 million yen in 2009,

future, it can be expected that hydrogen (R hydrogen)but the price of the storage battery has decreased

produced by renewable energy will be supplied by the

drastically since then. For example, in the latest unit of

infrastructure that is currently being developed, for

the Power Wall series sold by Tesla, an electric car

example by generating hydrogen by decomposing water

manufacturer, a storage battery of 14 kWh with anon a large-scale offshore wind farm.

inverter is sold at the level of 617 thousand yen.

The technology that is highly anticipated along withTechniques for storing heat include both latent heat

energy storage technology is energy control technology.

storage utilizing dissolution and solidification of

As stages of control, various stages can be expected,

materials such as water to accumulate energy andsuch as at the level of building, block in a city, andchemical storage utilizing chemical reaction thatpower interchange among areas.

accompanies heat storage. Latent heat storage is a

At the building level, with the installation of smart

simple method, but large capacity facility is required.

meters in all households by 2024 being planned, it will

For example, some cases include use of snow ice heatbe possible to start introducing demand side control inutilized for cooling in the summer by accumulating

the 2020s, which introduces dynamic pricing, whichsnow (e.g., 3,160m3 snow storage at Moerenuma Park

aims at lowering the electricity rates at peak hours andin Hokkaido), and regional heating and cooling systems

promoting use at the time of over supply by reflecting

3

which uses ice thermal storage tank (e.g., 1,100m of

the stringent state of electricity supply and demand). As

ice thermal storage tank at Minato Mirai 21). The

a result, electric power demand according to the change

chemical heat storage system, also called a chemicalin the amount of renewable energy can be boosted, andheat pump, is a technology that can store heat over a

the effect of energy saving can also be expected. For

long period of time with a small capacity unit asexample, in the demonstrative experiment of dynamic

compared with latent heat storage. For example, in a

pricingdemonstrative experiment conducted in Mie Prefecture,

Community Creation Project, the result showed a power

the waste heat of a waste incineration plant was stored

saving effect of about 20%.

conducted

inKitakyushu

City

Smart

in a transheat container with a capacity of 500 kWh

In order to make effective use of energy including

over 5 hours, and hot water of 70 °C. was supplied to athermal demand, it is necessary to interchange energy

hotel 10 km away. The amount of energy required for

between buildings with different demand patterns. An

the transportation, and storage and release of heat is

instance of grappling with this at the block level isabout 50 kWh, and it is known that the balance of heat

FUJISAWA Sustainable Smart Town (Panasonic,

can be achieved if it is about 30 km.

Fujisawa City), where the town-making is progressing

As for a method of accumulating it as a chemicalwith goals including 70% reduction of CO2 emissions,substance, the use of hydrogen has attracted attention as

30% reduction of daily water, and 30% use of

Toyota Motor started selling fuel cell vehicle “MIRAI."

renewable energy, compared to the level of 1990. Also,

The government made the expenditure in order tothe SMA×ECO Project (Daiwa House) is a project tosubsidize the installation of 100 hydrogen stations in

set up solar power generation, storage batteries, HEMS

fiscal 2015. Of the installation cost of about 400 million

in each household, and interchange power among

yen per station, up to the limit of 180 to 290 million yen

buildings.

was subsidized depending on the facility size, but the

Furthermore, as long as power can be interchanged

number of hydrogen stations that have opened as ofamong electric power companies, it is possible toJune 2016 stagnated at only 76 (and 14 stations in theabsorb power supply fluctuations of large-scale windplanning stage). The hydrogen that is currently used isfarms. However, for Hokkaido, where the windby-product hydrogen from existing industrial processes

resources are abundant, the interconnection capacity ofand hydrogen generated by reformulating natural gas

Hokkaido and Honshu (mainland) is as small as

and others, and carbon dioxide cannot be stopped from

600,000 kW, which needs to be reinforced.

108

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is abring in wealth from outside to the region by using

common issue throughout the world. Among renewable

renewable energy that can be obtained locally, without

energies, fluctuating renewable energy such as solar andhaving to develop customers themselves. Based on thewind power are universally available energy unlike

power supply estimation of renewable energy grasped

geothermal and hydraulic power whose available areasin the sustainable zone research, a comparison was

are limited, and the required technology for stable use

made between the power revenue earnings (the priceof them will be a technology that can be expected to beobtained by deducting the avoidable raw price from thein demand throughout the world from now on. It will be

anticipated revenue from the feed-in-tariff scheme) andnecessary to strengthen policies so that industries thatthe local tax revenue, with the assumption that all

utilizerenewable energy facilities were run by public

thistechnology

will

have

international

competitiveness.

enterprises of local public entities. As a result, electric
power sales revenues in the whole country wascalculated to the total of 1,145.6 billion yen annually,

4. Renewable energy sector as "sustainability
department"

which was equivalent to 6.0% of the local tax revenues.

Now, introducing renewable energy is something thatAs a result of trial calculation for each municipality, it

contributes to the maintenance and management of thewas found that there were 107 municipalities where

capital base in each region through bringing income toelectricity sales income would exceed their local tax

areas where population decrease is progressing in Japanrevenue.

and through letting people remain in the area. In otherIn revitalizing regional communities, there is anwords, renewable energy can be considered to lead toargument with a tone that emphasizes promotion of

the development of the "sustainability department."

cultivating industries that correspond to the “growth

In particular, it can be expected that introducing

sector" of the region. For example, Mr. Ryohei

renewable energy at the initiative of the community will

Nakamura calls selling things and offering services

have the following dual effects.

outside the community to acquire out-of-region money

The first effect is that by utilizing the renewable

as the “infrastructure industry," and calls industries thatenergy that can be obtained locally, the wealth of theearn money by selling things and services within thearea that had been leaked out of the region in the past to

region "non-infrastructure industry," and insists on thepurchase energy can be kept within the region. For

importance of nurturing the infrastructure industries

example, when a trial calculation was performed for

because the number of workers in the former prescribes

regional energy expenditure (for consumer and forthe population size. Although this “infrastructure

agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries) byindustry" can be thought of as the same concept as

multiplying the standard energy rate in each region by"growththe energy demand for consumer use and for agriculture,industries" will invite competition to acquire customers

forestry and fisheries industries use grasped byby each region. Therefore, because Japan as a whole issustainable zone research, the total was calculated to be

declining in its population, the nurturing will not be

about 42 trillion yen. This scale is 2.2 times larger thansuccessful in all regions. On the other hand, supplying

the total local tax revenue (about 19 trillion yen). Also,

regional energy demand with regionally dispersed

for all municipalities, when the ratio of regional energy

renewable energy can be surely tackled with in all

expenditure to tax revenue was taken, the average wasregions. From this, I think that the introduction of

2.7. If we can use these energy expenditures by

renewable energy is the key to regional revitalization.

industry"

in

this

paper,“infrastructure

introducing renewable energy to create employments

In the future, as the population is decreasing, it iswithin the region, the effect of employment creationnecessary to maintain and manage the land of 370,000

will be a stable one because the energy demand is

km2. Even in areas where people's hands have retreated,stable.

some maintenance and management are necessary fromThe second effect is that the feed-in-tariff scheme canthe viewpoint of national land conservation. For this109

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

reason, from the viewpoint of working out the* This paper has some overlap with Hidefumi Kurasaka.

long-term cost for national land conservation, it will be

Renewable energy and the future direction of economic

justifieddevelopment. Environmental Economics and Policytomaintaincurrently

existing

local

communities as much as possible and leave vitality toStudies, Vol. 10, No. 1 (2017.3).

maintain various capital infrastructures in the region.

110Chapter 1

Resource Energy

3. Sustainable low-carbon society
Satoshi Konishi
1. Technical options and the living sphere supply

living creatures alive for multiple generations, but

chain of humanity

science and technology at least makes it possible to

As I stated in Section 1, all living things form andintentionally form a system that is coherent to its

live in a system that transports and distributes materials

purpose. It can be said that the directionality in theand energy for their own survival in some way In theformation of the living sphere of humankind hascase of human beings, its living sphere supply chain isbrought about the directionality toward throughput

composed of artificial materials in highly sophisticatedincrease (growth) and structural formation (capitalmanner by technology. But regardless of methods, its

accumulation) almost consistently, amid the occurrence

system construction itself is the important purpose ofof the species called the human beings and the rise andactivities by the human civilization, and is the result offall of civilizations. Although this is what happened in

its activities, which is not much different from the otherthe evolutionary process in any creatures overall, thecreatures. There are various aspects to the humancompetitions between species and within species takecivilization, but at least in terms of constructing,the form of contest for this resource throughput. The

maintaining,thechoice of technology that has a purpose or rather

material-energy circulation system, human society has

directionality has always required even more material

not only technical aspects and visible constructs such asenergy throughput whether in agriculture, othercivil engineering, architecture and engineering. It also

industries, or competition among social institutions andcontains a software-like function to influence thegroups, and technological development has responded

behavioral choices as an individual or as a group

to it. However, while energy acquisition of humankind

through politics, economy, laws and regulations, social

represented by food is basically dependent on thesystem, etc.. and further give directions to theirconversion and fixation effect of solar energy throughmotivation and target-setting as a whole.

photosynthesis by plants, it can be said that it was

Through such society and activities of human beings

mainly performed in the implementation and progress

as a whole, "technology" itself has inherent norms andof agricultural technology (reclamation, cultivation,

methodologies in terms of objective validity, andirrigation, fertilization, etc.) and in the competition for

demonstrability of verification and counterarguments,

the farmland itself, and the growth was regulated byin every aspect of the large scope of scientific research

agriculture and the amount of photosynthesis in theand device development. As a result, the system of theforests.

andupdating

andimproving

methodology called science and technology is neutral toWith the industrial revolution making possible thethe current survival and future rise and fall of humanenergy use that did not depend on the amount ofbeings, the global environment, and other species. In

photosynthesis by the surface plant in the form of fossil

other words, science and technology does not guarantee

resources, the throughput of the material-energy

the survival and prosperity of humankind even if it iscirculation system dramatically increased. It is not a

implemented precisely according to the target. Whencoincidence that this happened in the U.K., where thetrying to create a device, material, method or systemenergy supply from forest resources was exhausted butthat has a certain utility, science and technology always

coal was mined. On one hand it embodied theselect the best fit for the evaluation function as a result

imperialistic demand for rapid expansion of the livingof trial and error according to the set target. The set goal

sphere. Because the throughput increase by theis greatly influenced by the orientation of theIndustrial Revolution, that is, the growth rate, was"civilization" at the time. The living sphere, which is aoverwhelmingly large compared to the previous system

material energy circulation system, does not necessarily

based mainly on agriculture, it came to occupy an

have the sustainability of making the encompassed

overwhelming share in the human activities as well as111

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

expand its total amount.

environment and the sustainability of humankind are

Taking Japan as an example, currently the energy

considered a shared goal to a certain extent. There, theconsumption per capita is about 50 times the required

expansion of the throughput aimed at by the 20th

calorie (which is supposed to be 2,000 kcal/day).

century and its growth rate are not necessarily

As shown in Figure B-4, we can see a correlationemphasized, and it seems that things are directed

between GDP per capita and the energy intensity unit.

toward a more comfortable life and economic activities

The range is quite wide, but each country recognizesof high added value with relatively low throughput. In

the need to expand energy consumption on their own inother words, human society in the 21st century is in the

pursuing wealth. In the 19th-century imperialism andprocess of changing its living sphere to a sustainable

the subsequent advanced industrial society, economic

type.

growth and expansion of energy supply were also

It should be noted with caution, however, that suchdirectionality given to technological development, andpurpose setting is currently largely different between

as a result of success in these, there were those thatdeveloped

became developed countries in the 20th century.

development and growth are still major issues inanddeveloping

countries.

Economic

On the other hand, however, as can be seen in Figure

developing countries, where inclinations can also be

B-4, its dependency is not necessarily unambiguously

seen toward traditional energy throughput increase anddetermined, and the dependence of energy consumption

a rapid growth economy. While they show an

and economic wealth is not so strong.

understanding of global environmental issues andFigure B-5 shows the relationship between thesustainability, the general strategy of developing

Human Development Index according to the United

countries can be regarded as one that moves in such a

Nations and electricity consumption per capita.

direction after achieving sufficient economic growth.

Although HDI itself is an arbitrary indicator, it can beseen that a certain amount of energy consumption isrequired for at least a certain level of healthy andcultural life. The majority of human beings are resigned
to still be in a state of low HDI, indicating that it isnecessary to supply energy (especially to have access toelectricity) in order to improve this.
On the other hand, however, at a certain level ofliving standard or above, even if energy consumption
increases, HDI does not improve greatly. When we
consider this in conjunction with Figure B-4, it is also
understandable that developing countries will pursue
any increase in energy throughput, while at the sametime in developed countries it is not necessarily the case,and that they are not directed toward an increase inenergy throughput.
As mentioned above, the technology itself is neutral,and it is also possible to construct material energy
systems of different characteristics based on societal

Figure B-4

GDP and energy intensity unit

demands and directionality. Its ideal image and(Source) Energy hakusho 2007 nen ban (Energy Whiteevaluation function are not necessarily shared orPaper, 2007 edition). Ministry of Economy, Trade andnecessarily one, but in the group of developed countries

Industry.

which have reached a certain level of economic
development already, conservation of the global

112

Chapter 1

Figure B-5

Resource Energy

Power consumption and standards of living
supply chain.

2. Sustainability of infrastructure systems
Technological development is still being carried out

As a result, the resource basic unit graduallyin all fields that constitute the living sphere of

decreases, and the structure, function and efficiency

humankind, and as a result of its directionality toward

gradually increase. On the other hand, the value of thethe sustainable model of the 21st century, the system

supply chain (as capital) will increase due to structuraland technology developed as a resultant product isaccumulation. The infrastructure system as a social

constructed with the purposes of increasing thestructure will accumulate value in itself while reducing

efficiency of use of resources and energy, raising theresource consumption, by constructing it so that it will

circulation ratio, and achieving a great effect by

be a sustainable model. Resource energy supply is adecreasing throughput or increasing it slightly. The

necessary service for human activities, and a certain

general structure of this system is shown in Figure B-3,

amount of throughput is absolutely necessary, but it

but it is necessary to note that for the energy anddoes not have to increase greatly as long as it responds

materials, it shows the entire system from requests

precisely to the demand. On the other hand, supply

made from various factors up to the final point of use,anxiety, or so-called depletion and diminution, occurs

which is not only the supplied part that is requested bywhen a response cannot be given to this, and it can be

consumers but also from the raw materials to the waste.

understood from the character of this infrastructure

As a result of sophistication in technologies related tosystem that this is due to malfunction of the supply

these, resource dependency of material-energy supply

chain, and not the quantity of material.

will decrease and system (infrastructure) dependency

Even after construction of infrastructure, resources

will increase. This is because the structure of the supply

are necessary for maintaining the structures, andchain will be more refined, complex and highly

operating and running them as software, and for thisfunctionalized. In other words, it reduces raw materials

reason, it is necessary to introduce energy and resources.

and waste generated that are necessary to deliver

Some of the circulated energy is spared on this, and amaterials and energy as products to consumers, andstructure cannot be maintained without this. Even if it isimproves the function and efficiency of the entire

maintained, the structural function of the system, that is,113

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

spheres’ supply chains.

accumulated negative entropy, does not increase, but
entropy emission occurs.

Figure B-6 shows the ratio of R&D investment to

In addition, the sophistication function of thesales in the manufacturing and service industries and its

structure as an essential property of the supply chain

changes. In any type of industry, they do not neglect

itself always requires progress by research andinvestment for technological progress, and unless they

development. This also has some cost necessarily, andconstantly make progress, they cannot even continue

sophistication of the system has decisive importance inproduction.

the competition among living spheres. This resource

consumption of raw materials and energy, R&D

requirement is necessary even without an increase ininvestment is relatively low. While at times individual

throughput in the form of increased production, butdevelopments may succeed or fail, the technology

even if resource throughput is increased or decreased onalways progresses when seen in its entirety, and while

the function of the infrastructure system as a supply

productivity, efficiency, yield, and product performancechain, its required amount does not change greatly, andimprove, the amount of resources used decreases. In all

it has a low variety based on usage. This is a possibleof the individual products, resource dependency will

explanation in terms of system dynamics, as the cause

decrease, and technological dependency and addedof the marginal cost approaching zero in many living

value will increase.

Figure B-6

In

types

of

industry

withlarger

R&D investment on sales in each industry

Humans’ living spheres are a supply chain of energythat is, a supply system of resources and energy, theand resources, but since many systems currently seen ingroup of developed countries that have formed

developed countries are ones that were built from theinfrastructure as one of accumulation from the past is

19th century to the 20th century, in many cases they arebasing its lives on a structure constructed bywell-suited for mass consumption of resources andimperialism and rapid economic growth society. In

energy, and high growth. Even if the group of today'sother words, the "living sphere supply chain" is notdeveloped countries are directed toward a sustainable

necessarily in a state suitable for the future direction,model of infrastructure systems as a social structure,and society’s structural transformation sometimes

114

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

requires a large-scale scrap and build. Or, it may

demand for consumptive resources is small, and the

become extremely gradual in accordance with thesystem corresponding to infrastructure has a large

system update due to the useful life and take a longweight. Despite the fact that the raw energy before

period of time.

conversion, such as sunlight and wind themselves, isAs seen in Figure B-4, the difference in energy

inexhaustible and free, it should be noted that there areconsumption necessary to obtain wealth for eachsupply constraints corresponding to supply curvescountrysocialanywhere in the supply chain. Thus, an upper limit andinfrastructure behind it is largely different. When we

supply inconsistency is a possibility, and in fact it has

take for example, in achieving rapid economic growth,already occurred in some situations.

suggests

that

the

structureofcountries which developed industries that consumed

For example, with respect to solar power and wind

relatively large amount of resources, and ones thatpower, sunny roof-like places and locations where thebecame an industrial nation of a high added-value

wind condition is good with easy connection to anmodel, the difference is evident. Or even when we takeelectric grid are limited, and furthermore, because

transportation systems for example, it is evident

locations with a good condition are used preferentially,

between automobile-based countries and ones that havethe installation cost increases as the penetration rate

built infrastructure including railroads.

rises, and the tendency of decrease in overall efficiency
is difficult to avoid. Moreover, with natural energy
having a sparse original energy density, the efficiency

3. Low-carbon energy system
When we consider that almost all of social

does not increase even if the facility is upsized, and it isinfrastructure is a resource energy supply chain in somedifficult to obtain the merit of scale. This is a majorform, an energy system can be easily analyzed anddisadvantage when compared to the fact that fossil fuelevaluated as one typical example. Especially energy

resources and nuclear power can increase the rate ofsuch as renewable energy and nuclear power energy,

further installation, that is, they can easily increase thewhich are said to be low-carbon energy systems, can be

growth rate or upsize the output per unit area or per unit

viewed as energy with less resource dependency, or

plant, and also the fact that because of this, they have

conversely, system-dependent energy. For all of these,

come to be a dominant technology in the rapid

resource dependency is measurable together with theeconomic growth society.

low-carbon property, but in its supply chain, theFigure B-7

Supply chain of renewable power generation

115

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Another big limitation is the problems that solar

developing countries will be necessary.

power and wind power are inherently fluctuating and do

As mentioned above, renewable energy and nuclear

not have the ability to respond to demand, and that it ispower, which are classified as low-carbon energy, havedifficult for the connected electric power system tolittle dependency between available energy amount,absorb and stabilize the fluctuation. This has alreadyresource consumption, and operation cost, and because

occurred as the issue of connection refusal of renewableof the extremely high weight on technology and facility,

energy in many places in Japan. Although these

they are energy sources with low marginal cost. When aproblems ultimately return to the stability of a grid,society uses energy composed only of low-carbon

power grids of large size, high stability, and matureenergy as its energy infrastructure, there is a highcontrol technology exist only in very limited areas ofpossibility that it will be a flat-rate energy service ofdeveloped countries such as Europe, the United States

zero marginal cost. Even when energy originally uses

and Japan. When we consider that an extremely large

fossil resources, the weight of investment and system

number of electricity grids in developing countries aremaintenance in building supply chains is not small. If

small-scale as well as under severe supply and demand,

this does not depend on resources and further demand

introduction of renewable energy is actually in a toughthe infrastructure a meticulous response to demands

situation in developing countries, which will besuch as through implementing IT, the capital value of

responsible for most of the future electricity demand.

the system itself is large, while the energy throughput

This problem does not occur in the conventional type ofitself is in a direction of stagnation or decline due torenewable energy that is hydropower generation, andhigh efficiency. It can be said that the energy

rather it can be said that hydropower is an excellent

infrastructure of developed countries is shifting to a

power source capable of dealing with changes insustainable model, slightly preceding the progress ofdemand with extremely short time constants and large

low-carbonization.

fluctuating capacity, but its power generation depends

Needless to say, the greatest purpose of theon precipitation. With biomass also, resources are

low-carbonized energy system is to reduce carbon

renewed, but its regeneration rate is determined bydioxide emissions. Needless to say, renewable energy

photosynthesis of plants, which constrains the rate. In

and nuclear power have a great effect on carbon dioxide

particular, when we consider the relationship between

reduction, but introduction of Carbon dioxide Capture

the rapid economic growth and the fossil fuel energy

and Storage (CCS) for the use of fossil fuels, andsystem in the developed countries in the past, it has tointroduction of solar power, storage batteries, and fuelbe said that there is a big constraint on its introduction

cells

in developing countries in terms of the rate of growth ofbi-directionality of energy infrastructure and its

supply.

transformation into a network, in addition to carbon

It is fair to say that future energy infrastructure inondioxidetheconsumer

reduction,

and

side,

will

will endupfurthertheincreasing

developing countries is still growth-oriented, and that

dependency on energy supply technology and systems.

there will be high interest in growth rate and energy

As for these energy technologies, however, on the life

density. However, the energy equipment and systems tocycle we cannot neglect the carbon dioxide produced at

be manufactured mainly in the near future will be those

the time of its manufacture, and furthermore, carbon

that are currently being developed in developed

dioxide emitted at the time of manufacture can exert acountries now. At times they are introduced togreenhouse effect for a long period of time thereafter.

developing countries from the beginning due to the leap

Also, for example, it should be noted that silicon usedfrog effect, but there is the issue that they are not

as a raw material for solar panels is made using cheap,

suitable for emerging economies seeking rapid growth.

highly carbon-dependent power sources such as ones

In order to make the low-carbon energy system thefrom China, and its emission is not a responsibility ofmainstay of the world in anticipation of the latter half ofthe purchasing country.

the 21st century, a mechanism to give incentives to116

Chapter 1

Resource Energy

medium, but it does not mean that it is consumed.

4. Value creation
The relationship between a sustainable energy system

Further, it should be apparent that material amount andand a society with low growth/zero marginal cost canstructure amount are irrelevant, and that ideallybe associated with the fact that construction of societal

extremely few materials can be used to record a large

system using energy, namely energy throughput, is ofamount of information, if we look at various devices

an equivalent value to negative entropy generation (andcurrently used and genetic information in creatures.

further entropy discharge outside the system). Energy

Infrastructure construction has accumulated structural

renewability and low-carbon property are accompanied

quantities by moving considerably a large quantity ofby structural formation at the stage of accumulating

materials on Earth through construction of buildings

original energy. Fossil energy resources are also

and civil engineering work, etc. However, even if alow-entropy resources, since they are the result oflarge amount of steel material or concrete is used, it

converting high-quality energy of light, and releasing

does not consume it (i.e., increase entropy by dispersing

entropy over a long time, at the stage where the plant

it in the environment as it depletes it), but actually

reduces carbon dioxide and accumulates as a highly

extracts a specific material from the natural world,

structured compound. In the sense that carbon dioxide,

concentrates it, and converts it synthetically, thereby

which was dispersed in the atmosphere, is concentrated

forming a structure. Maintenance is an action to preventand condensed in a very limited volume, in addition to

structural collapse (increase of entropy). Systemmerely accumulating chemical energy, it can also be

operation

regarded as the result of paying the price of entropy(information accumulation effect), and R&D also

emission of an extremely large amount over a longaccumulates information. All of these can be regarded

period of time, and the result of accumulating the value

as actions to create value in the form of advanced

as its substitute price (negative entropy). Fossil energy

structural formation, material concentration, and unevenresources are also renewable on the geological time

distribution, while discharging entropy using energy.

scale, but the parts of value creation and accumulation

The entropy balance can be evaluated in principle.

conducts

entropydischarge

movement

that correspond to recovery of its carbon dioxide

Also in the past, value has been measured in the form

concentration cannot be easily recovered necessarily,of negative entropy accumulation. The most easily

even if carbon dioxide emission is reduced to zero.

understandable example would be mining and smelting

Nuclear energy, along with renewable energy, alsoof the metal element that is gold. This material exists at

has a typical low resource-dependent energy system,a reasonably low concentration on the Earth, and theand at the same time has a large negative-entropy

part where it is concentrated in the form of a vein isaccumulated constituent. It has a cosmic time constant,rare. Furthermore, the process of physically andwhich is not what has been accumulated after thechemically concentrating it requires a large amount ofEarth's occurrence. Energy use, in the case ofenergy, but basically the energy is simply used only tohumankind who uses it to build a sophisticated living

partly lower entropy. The gold that has been

sphere, involves a large amount of negative entropy

concentrated and collected by humankind as a result of

accumulation, which becomes a value creation. Value

this is said to be roughly the amount of 2 swimming

creation requires entropy emissions suited to it, and in apools in the whole world. That itself is not strikingly

sustainable energy system, this flow cannot be ignored.

useful or highly valuable, and it does not have a large

The accumulation of negative entropy in the living

amount of material. The property of gold is measured assphere due to this energy circulation is observed in thea symbol of throwing in a large amount of energy andstructural construction of the living sphere’s supply

accumulating the state with lowered entropy. We canchain. The structure has a thermodynamic dimension

say that the process of isotope separation is also a(unit) as the information quantity = the logarithm of thetypical example of value creation from energy. To

reciprocal of the probability.

extract heavy water from water, or to extract uranium

In this structural construction, material is used as its

235 as concentrated uranium from natural uranium,117

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

enormous energy, technology, and facility are used.

this series of discussions. Here, the energy itself or the

However, what is obtained as a result is the sameenergy medium itself does not actually have value.

uranium as the raw material, and the same uranium as

From sunlight, wind, streams flowing through rivers,

the raw material. Each isolated isotope is useful andcoals sleeping in the ground and petroleum to uranium,

valuable, and is extremely expensive in reality, but they

the cost is incurred, and value is created not for theare chemically almost the same as the original uranium

thing itself but for obtaining it, converting it into an

or water, and only the isotope composition is different.

available form, and delivering it to those who demand

As a material, there is almost no increase (althoughit. That is, only the operation with the composition ofthere is a little loss). That is, it is not that the material

supply chain has value. And the relationship between

itself that has value, but this value is something thatenergy throughput and value generated by the system iswas created by separative work and it is a result of

not strong, and rather the system structure and functionenergy conversion. If you leave this as it is, it will be

are the essence of value.

mixed, and entropy will increase, losing its value.
Introduction

of

IT,

informationization

Such features are common not only to energy, but togreatly

all necessities of daily life, such as food and water. That

improved the efficiency of value creation, and theis, because an extremely large number of people, or all

efficiency of accumulating information structure thatpeople need these things, and lack of them will interfere

does not involve consumption of resources. Currently,

with the individuals’ survival, it is important tovirtual currencies have come into being, bitcoin being

compose a system for universally delivering a required

their notable example, and they are used as a valuation

amount to the places that require them at a required

standard in place of gold and meteorological materials.

timing, which is the only thing that has value, and inThis principle is also the same in this case. A large

fact energy, food, and water are quite cheap in price. If

amount of energy is put into a computer, and a sequence

the living sphere is established, these are of course allwith low probability is accumulated by accumulating

obtained through natural survival behaviors for all

the calculated amount. This value is negative entropy

living creatures, and human beings are no exception toitself, not dependent on the material medium. Value

this. However, with the efforts in technology and by

purely exists as information that contains a dimension

previous generations, humanity has built up theseof energy. Of course, the value of such information is

supply chains in the realm of value creation by

the value creation of humankind, which is similarly

investing resources and efforts.

found in artistic activities such as literary works, music,
etc., and scientific research activities, and it is easy toReferences

see that these are almost irrelevant to the consumptionofmaterial

resources.

Humanbeings,through

1) C. Darwin, On the Origin of Species by Means oftechnology, can isolate value from material, and extract

Natural Selection, 1859, (read in Japanese translation)

it as having pure energy dimension.

2) R. Dawkins, The selfish gene, 1976

The recognition of the facts that value is not3) T. R. Malthus, Y. Nagai (translation), ISBN

attributable to materials or energy but is separable, that

4122000335, Chuko Bunko, Chuou Kouron Shinsha,

value occurs due not to materials but to their manners

1973

of existence, especially condensation, separation, and

4) S. J. Gould, The Structure of Evolutionary

structural formation, and that its structure andTheory,distribution are created by entropy emissions using

http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/gould_structu

energy, inevitably results in the understanding that there

re.html 2002

is actually no value in things themselves. It can be5) FAO statistics yearbook 2004, Food and Agriculture

concluded that the sustainable energy system, which is

Organization of the United Nations, 2004, ISBNthe main themes of this chapter, can be organized by the

9250051514, FAO (2005)

composition and transition of the supply chain through118

Chapter 2 Population and Food

1. Population problem of the world
The population of the world reached 7.3 billion by 2015 and is expected to be about 10 billion by around2050. Especially rapid population growth is expected to occur in least developed countries, and it isexpected to make it more difficult for these countries to deal with challenges such as eradicating poverty
and economic inequality, expanding their systems of education and sanitation, and expanding basic
services such as food services. On the other hand, about a quarter of the world, including Japan, will facea declining population by 2050. With the extended average life expectancy and the decline of the birthrate,
the aging of the population is seen globally, and we face challenges such as the decrease in the working
population and its impact on the social security system. On the other hand, there are countries and regions
where the young population still occupies a considerable proportion, and it will be necessary to deal withissues such as providing young people with education and employment opportunities. Internationally, therecognition that population problems are interrelated with development and environmental problems has
been established, and viewpoints to solve these problems as one unit are required.
2. Population problem of Japan
The population of Japan has been increasing over the long term while experiencing several fluctuations
since the Jomon period, but it has been declining since 2008. Population decline can have negative effects
on the Japanese economy both on the flow side which is economic growth and on the stock side which ismaintenance and control of capital base. However, even if growth in the flow of the economy as a wholecannot be realized, securing stock abundance per capita can be realized depending on the policy. In thisdirection, in order to secure abundance under the state of declining population, transition to economic
operation on a stock basis and materialization of decentralization will be necessary.
3. Sustainability of food production
The food supply chain is described as a single material energy supply system driven not only byphotosynthesis by sunlight but also with external energy invested in it. This expansion of food throughput
can be described by the growth rate, and the growth rate of energy supply after the Industrial Revolution
has achieved a rapid expansion of food production. Expansion of the population is represented by growthrate and is of a geometric scale as typified by Malthus, and the result of driving larger growth rate of foodsupply is the rapid population expansion. Human energy throughput has further expanded, and population
growth has already deviated from that. On the other hand, the material energy supply chain via food has a
low marginal cost which is similar to other living sphere systems, and there are many systems which are
not based on the market economy. Many agricultural communities have completed a system that does notdepend on the monetary economy. On the other hand, internationally, supply chains with less sensitivity
to distance and quantity have been formed, and the food supply system has become a service industry oflarge cities. Population concentration in urban areas also corresponds to global changes in food supply
systems.

119

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

4. Sustainable water supply
We also use the water supply chain bypassing the circulation route on Earth, instead of consuming it.
Resources are being invested in building, operating, and maintaining facilities as infrastructure, and its
marginal cost is low. There, energy is introduced to reduce entropy and it is delivered and distributed tothose who demand it. Many of the water is used as a material energy transfer medium such as for washingand cooling, and the water after use returns to natural circulation. There are inherent regeneration time
constants in groundwater and river water, and their throughput is constrained. It is possible to increase
throughput by supplying energy by desalination of seawater and circulation treatment. Wastewater also
requires treatment with introduction of energy in case when the wastewater exceeds the regeneration time
constant of the natural world. Agricultural production also needs a lot of water, but in this case transfer ofagricultural crops streamlines transfer of water as virtual water. The water supply system can also beconstructed as a sustainable system by energy and technology.

120

Chapter 2 Population and Food

1. Population problem of the world
Yukari Takamura
1. Current situation of the world’s population

population size and population distribution of theAccording to “The 2015 Revision of World

world.

Population Prospects” released by the United Nations in

One characteristic of the future population increase is2015, the population of the world reached 7.3 billion bythat the rate of increase is high in the so-called 48 "least

the middle of 2015. This means that it has increased bydeveloped countries (LDCs)," 27 of which are African

1 billion people in the past 12 years.

nations. The least developed countries are certified by a

The regional distribution of the 7.3 billion people isresolution of the General Assembly of the United

as follows: about 60% (4.4 billion people) in Asia, 16%

Nations after deliberations by the United Nations(1.2 billion people) in Africa, 10% (740 million) inEconomic and Social Council, based on the criteria

Europe, 9% (630 million) in Latin America and thecertified

Caribbean region, the remaining 5% in North America

Programme Committee (CDP). Certification is made on

and Oceania. China (1.4 billion people; 19% of thethe 3 criteria, which are: (1) GNI (Gross National

world’s population) has the world's largest population,

Income) per capita; (2) HAI (Human Assets Index) (anfollowed by India (1.3 billion; 18% of the world’s

indicator of the degree of human resources development,

population).

which indicates the proportion of nutrition deficient

by

the

UnitedNations

Development

Looking at the age composition, 26% of the world’s

population, infant mortality rate under 5 years of age,

population is under 15 years old, 62% is between aged

and secondary education enrollment rate); and (3) EVI

15 and 59 years old, and those aged over 60 years old(Economic Vulnerability Index) (an indicator of

accounts for 12%.

economic vulnerability). The population of LDC

During this, the population of the world continues tocountries is expected to reach 1.9 billion in 2050 fromincrease. However, the rate of increase is gradually

950 million in 2015, and 3.2 billion in 2100, andbecoming slower. Ten years ago, it increased by 1.24%

population growth is expected to concentrate in theannually, but currently it is increasing by 83 million

poorest countries. Therefore, this is expected to make it

people every year at the rate of 1.18%.

more difficult for these countries to deal with thechallenges of eradicating poverty and economic

2. Prediction of the world’s population

inequality, deal with starvation and malnutrition,

The population of the world will continue to increase,

expand systems of education and sanitation, and expand

and it is predicted that it will increase by more than 1

basic services such as food.

billion over the next 15 years, and the population is

Also, by 2020, the population of India is expected to

expected to be 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050,

exceed that of China. The population of India hasand 11.2 billion in 2100.

continued to increase over the last few decades and is

Especially in Africa, the birthrate is expected toprojected to reach 1.5 billion in 2030, and 1.7 billion in

decrease considerably in the near future, but still a rapid

2050. In contrast, China will maintain its population at

population increase is expected. As a result, thethe level of 1.4 billion until about 2030, and it is

proportion of Africa's population to the world

expected that it will gradually decrease.

population will increase from the current 16% to 25%

In contrast to LDC countries, India, etc., it isin 2050, and 39% in 2100. (On the other hand, thepredicted that the population will decline in the world’s

proportion of Asia’s population decrease from the48 countries in the years up to 2050. In particular,

current 60% to 54% in 2050, and 44% in 2100).

several countries including Japan are predicted to have

Therefore, how population growth in Africa willa population decline by 15% or more from the present

progress will have a major impact on the future

situation by 2050.

121

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Although it is the birthrate that largely prescribes theand 3.2 billion in 2100.

projection of the population in the future, but on the

Such aging of the population, as indicated by theother hand, there are not a few issues in controlling thedecline of the Potential Support Ratio (PSR) (which is

population. The population problem is under the

population aged 20 to 64 years divided by population

sovereignty

international

over 65 years old), causes the problem of decrease inintervention or compulsion that ignores the intention of

the number of workers who support one retired person.

the state is not admissible. Also, measures must be

The latent PSR of Japan is the lowest in the world at 2.1.

considered and implemented to effectively address

Such population trends can have

population problems while guaranteeing all couples andconsequences such as the on the fiscal situation due toindividuals the basic right to decide the number of their

the decrease in the workforce population, on politics,

children freely and responsibly, the interval between

and on social security.

births, and the timing, and the basic right to obtain

The

information and means pertaining to making suchcharacteristic, but on the other hand, the proportion ofdecisions, as well as the right to obtain the highest

the young population still remains high, especially instandard of health concerning sex and reproduction,

developing countries such as those in Africa. For

which is “reproductive rights.”

example, in Africa, the population under 15 years of

of

each

country,

and

aging

of

the

populationisvery seriousaprominent

age accounted for 41% in 2015, and the population
aged 15 to 24 years accounted for 19%. Education,

3. Extended life expectancy and aging of society
The world's average life expectancy has been

employment opportunities, and health support for suchextended in recent years, extending from 67 years ofyoung population will secure a productive andbetween 2000 and 2005 to 70 years between 2010 andcompetent workforce and contribute to eradication of

2015. Extension of the average life expectancy is seen

poverty and improvement of living standards, and thisin all parts of the world, and the extension of theis vitally important in realizing sustainable development

average life expectancy in Africa, in particular, isin developing countries.

prominent.
It is estimated that the average life expectancy will

4. Interrelationship between the population problem

extend to 77 years between 2045 and 2050, and 83

and the developmental/environmental problem

years between 2095 and 2100. Especially in Africa, it is

It was when the World Population Plan of Action

estimated that the average life expectancy will extend(WPPA) was adopted at the Bucharest Conference inby 19 years by the end of the 21st century. Whether

1974 that for the first time, the recognition was stated insuch an extension of the average life expectancy

clear words that solving the problems of population andbecomes a reality depends on how the measures against

development would require mutual solving of eachHIV and other diseases will progress.

other’s problem. The principle (c) of WPPA states thisChanges in the age composition of the population,

point as follows.

particularly the increase in the aging population over 60"Population and development are interrelated.

years of age, meaning the aging of the population, arePopulation variables influence development variables,

one of the future tasks, due to the factor such as

and are also influenced by development variables. In

extended average life expectancy and the declining

this way, the creation of the World Population Plan ofbirthrate.

Action reflects the recognition of the international

As of 2015, the population over the age of 60 was

community that population trends are important for

about 900 million, accounting for about 12% of thesocial and economic development, and the social andworld population. By 2050, in other regions excluding

economic nature of the recommendations in the Plan of

Africa, the population over the age of 60 is expected to

Action reflects the recognition of the internationalbe 25% or more of the entire population. It is expected

community concerning the importance of the roles

to increase to 1.4 billion in 2030, 2.1 billion in 2050,

played by development in influencing population

122

Chapter 2

trends.”Population and Food

manage the population, improve quality of life, andAt the Mexico City Conference 10 years after,

eradicate poverty, and as one of the critical goals inrecommendations were given on the importance ofenvironmental policies and developmental policies

adopting an integrated approach on population andderived from the concept of “SD," “maintaining thedevelopment at national policy and international level,

population at a sustainable level" was laid out. It is also

and the necessity of not only the actions of developing

this report which advocated that the population problem

countries but also policies on the side of developing

should be captured from the viewpoint of each person's

countries and the international community in supporting

progress and equality, and not just of the figure of thesuch efforts to achieve the goals, while WPPA's action

total population. This direction was handed down to theplan was reaffirmed. Then, the Cairo Conference in

Rio Declaration of 1992, and Principle 8 of the1994 reconfirmed the basic principle of approving the

Declaration stated that "the state should promotemutualappropriate population policies to achieve sustainable

relationshipbetweenpopulation

anddevelopment as prescribed by WPPA, and confirmed

development and higher quality of lives of all people."the need for providing new funds to developing

The Cairo Programme of Action, adopted two years

countries, within the framework of "Sustainable

after, used the framework of “SD," but this time it

Development (SD)."

positioned three issues of population, development, andOn the other hand, concerning the interrelationshipenvironment from the viewpoint of population problem.

between the population and environmental problems,

The action plan states, “there is an agreement in thesome pioneering advocates like Ehrlich had pointed out

international community as a whole that “continuous,

the influence of population growth on environmental

pervasive poverty and grave sexual inequity of the

problems as early as in the 1960s, but it was on thesociety have a serious influence on demographic

Declaration of the Human Environment in 1972 that itparameters such as population growth, composition,

first appeared on an international document. Althoughand distribution, and conversely, they are influenced bypart 5 of Preamble is indeed optimistic, it states thatsuch parameters," “unsustainable consumption andwhile "the natural increase in the population continually

production patterns are contributing to an unsustainable

raisesuse

issuesconcerning

conservation

of

the

of

naturalresources,

deterioration

of

the

environment," "human beings are the most precious

environment, expansion of the social inequity thatthings among all things," and that problems could be

involves

solved “if adequately appropriate policies and measuresparameters” and “if the population increase becomes

are taken." Then, Principle 16 stated that "Population

slower, it will be possible to nurture the ability to fightpolicies that do not harm basic human rights that areagainst poverty, protect and restore the environment,

considered appropriate by each government must beandimplemented in areas where the population growth rate

development,” and that “it is possible to suppress

or excessive population concentration adversely affects

population increase and achieve stability of thethe environment or development, or in areas where

population at an early stage by eradicating poverty.”

depopulation hinders improvement and development ofinfluence

build

a

on

foundation

the

for

above

futuredemographic

sustainable

In this way, the recognition was established in thethe human environment."

international community that the problem of population

What confirmed the interrelatedness of the problems

was interrelated with the two issues of development andof population, development, and the environment in thethe environment, which were pressed for its solution byframework of “SD," and explicitly stipulated that none

the international community, and that solution to eachof these problems could not be solved without solvingof the problems depended on the other problems. In

the other two problems was the Brundtland Report. The

particular, if the population rapidly increases inreport, in view of the finite nature of the resources,developing countries and the concerned developing

expressed the view that if the world population

countries are not equipped with sufficient economic

continued to increase, it would not be possible tocapability to nurture the rapidly increasing population,123

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

it can cause shortages of food, and health and medical

problems and international law). in Yoshihiro

services. Furthermore, labor opportunities will not be

Nomura. & Shoichi Ogano. eds., Jinko hogaku noable to catch up with the rapidly increasing population,

susume (An Encouragement of Learning Population

which can lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and

Law). Shinzansha. 1999. pp. 366-387.

low-wage labor. As a result, developing countries will2) United Nations, Department of Economic and Social

end up with economic and political instability factors

Affairs, Population Division World Population

domestically, and at the same time economic disparities

Prospects:

between the North and the South can expand further.

Demographic Profiles (ST/ESA/SER.A/380), UnitedThis not only brings the factor of instability to the side

The

2015

Revision,

VolumeII:

Nations, 2015.

of developing countries but also makes it difficult for3) P. Demeny, 'International Dimensions of Population

developed countries to secure stable export markets andPolicies,' P. Demeny & G. McNicoll eds., The

supply bases for import goods, and it can greatly

Earthscan Reader In Population and Development,

influence developed countries through international

Earthscan, 1998, p.210.

migration of population, including an outflow of4) P. Ehrlich & A. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion,

economic and environmental refugees abroad.

Hutchinson, 1990.
5) B. B. Crane & S. L. Isaacs, 'The Cairo Programme of
Action:A New

FrameworkforInternational

Cooperation on Population and Development Issues,'

References

Harvard International Law Journal, Vol. 36, 1995, p.
1) Yukari Takamura. Jinko mondai no kokusaika to
kokusaiho(Internationalization

of

302.

population

124

Chapter 2 Population and Food

2. Population problem of Japan
Hidefumi Kurasaka
1. The Long-term trend of Japan’s population

10th century (which is early Heian period). According

Hiroshi Kito, Jinko kara yomu nihon no rekishi (Theto Kito, although the population increase slowed down

History of Japan Read from the Population) (Kodansha

after that, the third wave of population growth began in

Gakujutsu Bunko) pointed out that there have been four

the 14th and 15th centuries, and it continued until the

waves in the population of Japan in the past 10,000

18th century. Although the estimation of the population

years (Figure B-8).71

in 1600 has some range, it was estimated to be around
10 million to 15 million. The population of the early
Edo period grew, and according to the shogunate’s
demographic survey, it reached 26.05 million in 1721.
However, the population in the late Edo periodstagnated, which is said to be 26.84 million in the
demographic survey in 1846. Kito points out thatbehind the third increase in the population, there was apermeation of behavior based on economic rationality.
And the fourth wave is the population growthaccompanied by industrialization in the 19th century
and after. According to Kito, Japan’s population in 1872
according to family registry was 34.81 million, then it
reached 43.85 million in 1900, and finally exceeded
100 million in 1967.
2. Outlook for the future population decline
The fourth wave pointed out by Kito has alreadyFigure B-8

Trend of Japan’s population

finished, and Japan’s population is headed for a(Source) Hiroshi Kito. Jinko kara yomu nihon no rekishi(The History of Japan Read from the Population).
(Kodansha Gakujutsu Bunko). p.19.

declining period. The population of Japan turned to adecreasing trend at the peak of 2008. Figure B-9 shows
the long-term trend of Japan’s population based on the

The first is the population circulation in the Jomon

population projection by the National Institute ofperiod. In the Jomon period, the population increased

Population and Social Security Research. According tofrom 20,000 in the early period to 261,000 in thethe estimated future population of Japan up to 2065,

middle period, but declined to 160,000 in the latter

published in April 2017, the total special fertility rate isperiod and to 76,000 in the late period, according toforecasted to recover to 1.44 in 2065 (previous estimate

him. This is believed to be due to the sharp decline inbeing 1.35 in 2060), and this will somewhat put thethe population in eastern Japan with the cooling of thebrakes on the population decline. However, we can see

climate. The second wave is the population increasethat the overall trend will not change greatly.

from the Yayoi period to the 10th century and after. The

The decline in 1945 is the impact of World War II. At

population which declined in the late Jomon period wasthis time, 2.3 million people were lost in one year, but

recoveredits

the population recovered the following years. It ispopularization, and rose to about 6.5 million around thepredicted that the population will be below 60 million

by

rice

farming

agricultureandin 2100, falling back to the level of the Taisho era, and71

Hiroshi Kito. (2000). Jinko kara yomu nihon no rekishi (The Historyof Japan Read from the Population). (Kodansha Gakujutsu Bunko)

the population decline expected in the future will be at125

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

the average rate of 800,000 annually until 2060. With

From the viewpoint of sustainability of the economic

this population decline, the population aging willsociety, it can be said that Japan has come to a major

progress. Because of this, the working age population

turning point.

will decrease faster than the population will decrease.

Figure B-9Long-term trend of Japan’s population(Source) Created by the author, based on Statistical Handbook of Japan 2016. The Ministry of Internal Affairs andCommunications.For the period between 1920 and 2005, and for 2010, population according to Population Census is used (except
1945 for which Demographic Survey is used); (includes people with an unknown age). For the periods between 2006 and 2009 andbetween 2011 and 2014, the estimated population as of October 1 based on the population according to Population Census is used.
For the period between 1945 and 1970, Okinawa Prefecture is excluded. (For the period of 1950 and onward, the aggregate
number of the entire population, male/female, and the population according to the division into three age ranges include thestatistics of Okinawa Prefecture. However, for 1950, the population according to the division into three age ranges excludes thestatistics of Okinawa Prefecture.) The future population is based on the middle estimate value on October 1 of each year according
to National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, based on the fact that the numbers were determined for the 2010
Population Census Basic Aggregation Result and Vital Statistics of the same year. And the line from 2020 to 2065 indicates anestimation by median age at birth (median age at death) of the future population of Japan (estimation as of 2017).

production and consumption aspects. Due to the decline

3. What will happen with the population decline
Population decline may give various negativein the working-age population, production capacity will

impacts on the Japanese economy.

decrease. In addition, due to the population decline,

Firstly, there is a negative impact on the flow side. In

domestic demand may decline and the economy may

this respect, negative impacts can be expected on bothrecede.

126

Chapter 2 Population and Food

Figure B-10

Trend of GDP growth rate of Japan (in real terms)(Source) From “National Accounts.” 'Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure side, Real terms: Linkage method: 2011 calendar year
linkage price)’

However, there is also a claim that economic growtheconomy, as if it is more comfortable for each person to

can be made even under a declining population. For

walk at the pace that suits him rather than staying still

example, a group of the Ministry of Economy, Tradefor a single point for a long time, it is much moreand Industry stated, “(the constraining factor that is thenatural than zero growth.

population decline) can be overcome by enhancing

employment of the currently working generation,abilities of individuals, increasing productivity, andespecially young people, has no choice but deteriorate.

shifting the industrial structures toward a more

From that viewpoint also, economic growth is necessary.

productive field in Asia,” and claimed that it wasThat is my opinion." Then, he insists that productpossible to achieve a 2.2% growth in real growth rateinnovation is "source of economic growth in developedon the annual average by 2015.

72

Under zero growth,countries.73"

This goal has been

adopted as it is in "Economic Growth Strategy Outline"

If the productivity per capita multiplied by theformulated by the Fiscal and Economic Integrated

working age population is GDP, and if the productive

Reform Council in 2006.

age population decreases, unless productivity per capita

However, since the Economic Growth Strategy

is raised at a rate that exceeds that of decrease, we

Outline, the real growth rate of Japan's GDP is in acannot expect a GDP growth as compared to thesituation where the long-term declining trend has notprevious fiscal year. This is the same with the demand

stopped, as shown in Figure B-10. Even in the face ofaspect, and economic growth cannot be expected

such a reality, there is something persistent about thewithout acquiring foreign demand to the extent that it

growing faith that prevails among economists. Hiroshi

can supplement the decrease in domestic demand due toYoshikawa states as follows. "Even in a mature

the declining population. Even if he states thatdeveloped nation, economic growth that fits eacheconomic growth is possible without verifying its
feasibility, it is probably not convincing. The group of

72

Takao Kitabata, Masashi Oshita, & Keisuke Saito. (2006).
Jinkogenshoka deno “aratashii seicho” o mezasu “shinkeizai seicho
senryaku” o kataru (Talks about “New Economic Growth Strategy”
aiming at “New Growth” under a Declining Population). ResearchInstitute of Economy, Trade and Industry.

73

Hiroshi Yoshikawa. (2016). Jinko to nihon keizai (Population andJapanese Economy). Chuko Shinsho.

127

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

From the viewpoint of urban planning, Toru Nakayama

mentioned above, named its own strategy the "newsaid, "If we say that the population and industries are

strategy," and in those words are written, “We'd like todeclining, it may give an image that seems to suggest

show that growth is possible even in the society where

promotion of the decline of the local area. But that isthe population is going to decrease from now. This is

not true.74" The point is in the shrinking of the planned

the new growth." Their extremely emotional obsession

urban area. Nakayama insists, "If we can proceed with

with growth is humorous and at the same time harmful.

the contraction of the planned urban area, we can send

The adverse impact of the declining population is not

the same life as before, at the same burden. Furthermore,

limited to the flow side. Adverse effects on the stock

if the natural environment can be regenerated on a large

aspect are also important. This means that there is ascale using the newly vacant land, the urban

concern that the burden of maintaining and managing

environment will improve."various capital base stocks will be uncoverable andThis is the argument that, speaking in line with thestock quality will deteriorate. Our economy isorganization from the previous section, the richness of

supported by various capital bases. The capital base isstock can be realized depending on ingenuity evendefined as an existence with a mechanism that provides

under the declining population. Even if growth in theusability, and as one whose mechanism will not be lost

flow of the economy as a whole cannot be realized,

by providing usability. There are four types of main

securing the per capita stock abundance can be realized

capital bases: human capital base, artificial capital base,depending on the policy.

natural capital base, and social relationship capital base.

In addition, the latter part of Nakayama's argument

If these capital bases are not properly cared for andwould correspond to the benefit that is accompanied bymaintained,

capital-based

the population decline. Yoshinori Hiroi insists, "Itmechanism will be shortened, and the usability of the

makes more sense to think that the population that is

capital base will be diminished.

somewhat more diminished than it is now is positive inthedurationoftheDeclining population and aging of the society meanvarious aspects such as correcting overcrowding, beingthat care of human capital base (especially nursing andfree from spatial, temporal, and spiritual constraints,

medical care) is required more than ever. It also means

environmental and resource problems, among others. 75

that the maintenance and management burden per capita

The items that can be expected as merits of populationof artificial capital base called social infrastructure suchdecline are listed below. Firstly, it is possible to operate

as water and sewer pipes and roads will increase.

the economy with less resource energy consumption.

Furthermore, the natural capital base (artificial forest,

Secondly, it is possible to operate the economy with

agricultural land etc.) maintained by human hands willless environmental impact. Thirdly, the space for humanenter a state where sufficient manpower is no longer

occupancy can be made less, and fourthly, the adverse

required, and its quality will deteriorate. This is

impact due to competition with others for limited

recognized by the national biodiversity strategy, which

opportunities can be corrected.

can be regarded as the deterioration of the quality ofHiroi says, “It may be possible to think that anature due to the lack of maintenance by humans.

transformation into a society with a declining

Finally, in order to maintain mutual support among

population is a perfect opportunity or an entrance topeople, it is necessary to maintain a moderate

making a society that is truly rich and where people canpopulation density, and in this respect the population

feel happy.” "In the coming 50 years, the reverse

decline has an adverse impact.

phenomenon of what happened in the rapid growth

4. What is the richness in the era of population

Toru Nakayama. (2010). Jinko gensho jidai no machi zukuri: 21 seiki= shukushogata toshi keikaku no susume (Town development in theera of population decline: 21st century = an encouragement of
reduced city planning). Jichitai Kenkusha.
75
Yoshinori Hiroi. (2013). Jinko gensho shakai toiu kibou (Hope thatis the population declining society). Asahi Sensho.

decline?
Then, does the declining population equal to a
decline of the Japanese economy?

128

Chapter 2 Population and Foodresonates with the “sustainable zones" research.

period will begin to occur. For example, the ricepaddies in the suburbs that changed to residential areas“Sustainable zone" is a concept proposed by thein the 1970s will return to empty lots, green spaces,

author80, and refers to an area that can by calculation

farmlands, etc., again in the future,” states Hiroi, withmeet all of the energy demand and food demand in the76

an optimistic outlook .

area by renewable energy and food available there.

However, as described before with withholding

Since 2005, in a joint research with the Institute forremarks such as depending on ingenuity" andSustainable Energy Policy Research, the local energy"depending on the policy," in order to be able to enjoy

self-sufficiency rate and the food self-sufficiency rate

the merit of the society with a declining population, it ishavenecessary to revamp the framework of the citizens’municipalities annually. (For details, refer to Chapter 1,

thoughts which exert an influence on policy-makers andSection 2, "Renewable energy and future economic

their policies. This point is in line with Hiroi when hedevelopment.") The three roles of this index are listed,

says, "As long as we consider things in the framework

which are; 1) to make visible districts where long-termof ideas and values of the rapid growth period or by its

sustainability has been secured; 2) to have theextension, we will not be able to think of the society

possibility to change the perception of “progressivity,”

with a declining population as one that has been

and; 3) to clarify the path to an era of post fossil fuel77

defeated or progressing towards "decline ."been

estimatedandpublished

for

all

era.

Measuring the economic prosperity in terms of

Figure B-11 shows the relationship between theeconomically added value has become unsuitable forpopulation size of municipalities and the regional

the actual situation of Japanese local governments andenergymunicipalities which already face population declines.

sustainable

On the other hand, if the population size is moderate,

self-sufficiency rate is the ratio of renewable energy

there is a possibility that it can sustainably support the

supply within a region to the energy demand for civilian

living with resources obtained in the region. This is theuse and uses for agriculture, forestry and fisheries

background of the idea of "satoyama capitalism" which

industries within the region, and for the municipalities

is being gaining empathy in various regions.

plotted above the line with the arrow in the figure, thisself-sufficiency
zone

rate

study.

ascertainedThe

regionalbytheenergyAccording to Kosuke Motani, "’Satoyama capitalism'proportion exceeds 100%. 71 such municipalities exist

is a secretly constructed subsystem independent of

as of March 201681, and the data shows that there is amoney, alongside the economic system of ‘monetary

higher possibility that municipalities with a smaller

capitalism’ built on the premise that the circulation of

population size are more likely to fit this case.

money will decide everything.” Then he states,"Satoyama capitalism is the ultimate backup system forkeeping water, food, and fuel even when money loses
its function78."
Motani views the population decline positively andsays, “It is in the very depopulated areas, which havebeen regarded to be in a disadvantageous condition
under the monetary capitalism, that is, where theamount of natural energy per population is large andFigure B-11

assets from the pre-modern era remain unoperated, thatmunicipalities and regional energy self-sufficiency rate

79

(Source) Kurasaka Laboratory & the Institute for Sustainable Energy

there is a greater possibility .” This is an indication that80

Relationship between population size of

Hidefumi Kurasaka. (2002). Kankyo o mamoru hodo keizai wa
hattensuru (The more environmental protection, the more economic
development). Asahi Sensho.
81
Kurasaka Laboratory & the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policy
Research. (2017). Sustainable Zone: FY2016 Report.
http://sustainable-zone.org/

76

Same as the previous note.
77
Same as Note 5.
78
Kosuke Motani & NHK Hiroshima Interview Team. (2013).
Satoyama shihonshugi (Satoyama capitalism). Kadokawa Shoten.
79
Same as the previous note.

129

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Policy Institute. Persistent Zone
Report.

management that secures profit from the flow, to theextent that it can cover the labor and demand that are

5. To enjoy the richness of the era of population

required for maintenance of the capital base, while

declineagreeing on how much capital base should be secured

In the policy to secure richness under the population

for the future on the societal level. (See Chapter 6,

decline, it will be necessary to reform the framework

Section 1, "Sustainability of capital base" for details.)
The second is the materialization of decentralization.

for policy operation from two perspectives.
The first is to transfer the indicators of economic

The state of capital base stock varies from region tooperation from one based on flow to one based on stock.

region. Also, the state of renewable energy and food

Increasing the amount of added value of the economy

production that can support this varies from region toas a whole is a means, not an end. The purpose is aregion. Therefore, in accordance with the principle ofhappy life of each citizen, and continued prosperity incomplementarity, the policy of capital base stock

the future. Even if the amount of the added value of the

management must first be done with the local initiatives.

economy as a whole does not increase, if we can secure

And the tax and financial mechanisms will need to be

the sustainability of a sound capital base stocktransformed, so that the benefits of the expansion of theaccording to the population of the citizens, we canflow of the economy as a while, promoted by theensure a happy life and prosperity in the future.

national government, can be used for capital baseSpecifically, we will need a capital base stock

management promoted by rural areas.

130Chapter 2 Population and Food

3. Sustainability of food production
Satoshi Konishigeometrically." It is true that we can say that the human

1. Malthus' error
As mentioned in Chapter 1, food is a means to bring

population has increased geometrically because it canenergy into the body for all living things, and eachbe expressed in a form like birth rate or population

creature obtains this through the help of other creatures

growth rate, but the usable energy throughput of(or through preying on them) in the “living sphere,” ahumankind can also be described by growth rate, and apath that is composed by multiple creatures with themuch larger numeric value became possible with thesolar energy being the origin, in the supply chain

advent of energy that “can be increased by mining”

created by the creatures on Earth to enable this. Even

after the Industrial Revolution. As far as agriculture istoday, all human beings eat continued to be bio-based

concerned, synthesis of fertilizer by fossil energy,(except for some inorganic salts such as salt for

cultivation,

consumption). The fundamentals of the system for that

productivity. In other words, it simply happened that as

purpose of human beings is a technically constructed

the growth rate of food production increased, thesystem, that is, agriculture, but its fundamentals remainincrease in population followed it. Humanity has

unchanged. Through photosynthesis by sunlight, energy

always increased energy consumption per capita

restores carbon dioxide and water respectively, and isthrough technological progress, and the time when it

converted into chemical energy of carbohydrates suchsucceeded was the increasing phase of the population,

as glucose. For not only animals but also plants, amongwhich

the materials that constitute their living bodies, ones

Revolutionthat are hard to be photosynthesized are nitrogenthroughput. Indeed, the economic growth rate, foodcompounds typified by amino acids, and in addition

production increase rate, and population increase wereothers are phosphate compounds which are the medium

linked for the period a little after the Industrial

for recording genetic information of the living bodies.

Revolution. When the increase in food production

Introducing these compounds into the photosynthesis

stagnated, the population of human beings stagnated orprocess dramatically increases its conversion efficiency,

decreased. In fact, as far as the available food statistics

but its supply is regulated by the action ofare concerned, consistently after the war, even incyanobacteria and the amount circulated in the naturaldeveloping countries, theworld, and it has never expanded greatly up until the

production has exceeded the growth rate of population,

modern agriculture. However, as stated in Chapter 1,

and thus the calorie intake per capita has also increased.

the increase in throughput due to the industrial

However, since human beings passed the stage inrevolution, that is, the rise in the growth rate, iswhich they relied on plants’ photosynthesis for energy

overwhelmingly

largerprevious

supply in a way that was almost done left naturally, andagricultural-based

systems,

dramaticallyenergy consumption per capita exceeded the calorie per

than

that
and

it

of

increased food production.

etc.,

becamegreatlypronounced

which

improved

after

dramaticallytheagricultural

Industrial

expanded

growth rateenergyof food

capita by several times even in countries and regions

As one of the results, the population of thewhich were at a quite low stage of economic

humankind also began to expand greatly. Here, we willdevelopment, it should be considered that the foodconsider the relationship between food production andproduction and the population problem have deviatedthe population, but the population theory of Malthus,

considerably for a very long time. Even now, the factwhich is often referred to, can actually be interpreted inremains that there exist quite a few people, several

a reversed way. In other words, "If the population has

hundreds of million people in the world, for whom foodincreased (at a geometric rate), it proves that the

supply is directly linked to the population, and they arecorresponding

the people that live while maintaining an extreme

food

supplyhas

increased131

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

balance under nutritional stress or can easily starve toconsumed plant metabolic substances such as nitrogen,death. However, in many cases it is not that there is a

phosphorus, and potassium are also industriallyshortage of food production throughout the world, butmanufactured. The situation is that as such material

in most cases, it is just that the food cannot be obtained

throughput came to be introduced in great excess of theor does not reach the people who need it, meaning inconstraints of plants and the environment surrounding

fact that the food production is not putting a constraint

them (e.g., supply by river water), food production has

on the population. There are many cases in which theincreased greatly, and this means that throughput ofpoverty is the cause, but this is also a problem of thematerial that pass through humans are driven bysocial system and the politics, and by no means there

external energy supply. And the fact that the rate ofare many cases where food is truly rare and too

increase was one of high growth peculiar to fossil

expensive to buy. In those areas, agricultural productionenergy and rapid economic growth model achieved ais close to one of self-sufficiency, and it is a societal

quantitative expansion of energy system of foodproblem that they cannot make investments (such as

production and at the same time was a factor in

irrigation and fertilization) enough to improve its

triggering a sharp increase in population. The greatest

productivity. Rather, food prices are falling on a global

increase in production was brought about by thelevel in the long run. However, this is working as aprogress of a series of agricultural technologies calledpressure to cut production against agriculture in"Green Revolution", which realized a much higher

developed countries which are suffering from constant

growth rate in agriculture than the population growth

overproduction and price stagnation, not a phenomenon

rate. The greatest element of those is the input offavoring

countries,

high-yielding varieties, and the yield per unit area has

especially in the hunger areas. As mentioned in the

more than doubled for most crops. In other words,

energy section, food has little value as a thing, and mostincrease in the conversion rate of solar energy to foodof the cost is paid to a series of supply chains to convertmeans that the energy throughput that goes throughsolar energy into a medium in a form that is usable forhumankind in the supply chain has increased.

food

supplyindeveloping

human beings, such as food. Moreover, in countries

In the general supply chain as shown in Figure B-3 ofwhere food supply is a problem in particular, food is

Chapter 1 (p. 16), the supply amount of any of themoften delivered to users not as a commodity but throughlimits the overall throughput, and in extreme cases ifmeans other than commercial means.

one of the paths fails the whole stops. If there is analternative route, it can be continued, and if there isbuffer capacity, the stop can be avoided within that

2. Food production and energy system
As we saw in the previous section, agriculture itself,

range. Also, if the throughput of the path that was theon which human beings depend for their food supply, isconstraining

conditionisexpanded,theoveralla complex energy conversion system itself, and even inthroughput increases until it is limited by the next

pre-modern agriculture, various forms of energy wereconstraint.

introduced other than solar power, including cultivation

Much of the energy material circulation of the whole

and reclamation, irrigation utilizing potential energy ofliving world is driven by solar energy, but at therainfall and wind power, and fertilization using biomass

beginning of its driving mechanism is photosynthesis,

other than agricultural crops. In modern agriculture, thiswhich simultaneously receives constraints of supply

has a strong characteristics of energy conversion using

including temperature, water, carbon dioxide andfossil energy resources, and in fact in modern

several kinds of mineral components besides the

agriculture, far more direct energy and indirect energy

sunlight. Even though water and carbon dioxide areare supplied from energy sources other than the sun.

supplied from the atmosphere and precipitation,

Cultivation, operation of agricultural machinery, andagriculture extracts minerals in the soil through thewarming of greenhouses and greenhouse cultivation

plant body, so for sustainable production all the

consume a large amount of energy, but indirectly

elements that plants absorb from the soil must continue132

Chapter 2

to be supplied from the outside in some form.

Population and Foodfact, it means that surplus grains actually increase in

Especially while plants cannot ingest nitrogenvalue due to animal husbandry, and that they are being

directly from the air, because it is a major element

consumed in a large amount per capita in wealthierconstituting chlorophyll, amino acids, and all proteins,countries.

it is administered (fertilized) in the form of a compound

The fisheries do not occupy a very large proportion(nitrate ion or ammonium ion). This can markedly

in the energy intake especially in terms of calorie baseenhance the growth of plants, which in turn has greatlyor protein conversion for the entire humankind, and it isincreased the material throughput of all organisms

said to be at most several per cents, and its catch hasoriginating from plants. Also, phosphoric acid is a

not shown a larger increase than agricultural products.

constituent element of DNA and RNA, and also puts a

On the other hand, even in fishery, energy dependence

constraint on the growth of creatures dependent on theis extremely high, and an extremely large proportion offood chain starting from there, unless the plant absorbs

catch cost is due to fishing boat fuel. Unlike agriculture,

it from the soil. Material circulation in agriculture has

fertilization and cultivation are not carried out inbeen carried out since the ancient times by composting

fisheries, and even if technological progress is made, as

excreta by humans, livestock, and other plant bodies,long as the regeneration rate of marine products by the

but as in the case with fossil fuels, it wasn’t until theocean is constant, rapid increase in production cannot

modern times that it became possible to input them into

be expected. Rather, it is well known that as a result of

the ecosystem by mining. Chilean nitrate (ammonium

improvement in catch technology, many fisherynitrate) have been used since the beginning of the 19th

resources have decreased, and catch restrictions havecentury, and fertilizer made from phosphate ore began

become necessary.

to be also used from around the mid-19th century. It

This situation was greatly improved in some

was in the 20th century when chemical synthesis of theaquaculture fisheries, and the growth rate of marine

necessary elements (fertilizer) to these plants began,

products produced by aquaculture became extremely

and also ammonia synthesis by Harber Bosch washigh due to external resource input. However, as with

conducted in 1913, and material technology tomost livestock feeds, the dependence of aquaculture

withstand high pressure was necessary. Besides this,fisheries on energy supply has also become high, as

there are many elements required by plants such as

most of the feeds used in the aquaculture industry arepotassium, magnesium, calcium, but supply from soil

made of fish meal, that is, fishery products.

and river water is small. It is these fertilizers that are

As for the ocean, human beings are not actively

important for industrial supply, and its synthesis isintervening in the material circulation system itself incurrently an important element in the supply chain for

the fisheries as much as in agriculture, the material

the survival of humankind.

throughput has not been as greatly affected. However,Because animal husbandry currently also relies on

the elemental circulation in the ocean is known to be

forage for the majority of its production and the forage

relatively limited, especially where it is far away fromcrops rely on agricultural production, similarly it can be

the land in the center of the ocean and in the deep sea.

said that animal husbandry converts fossil energy

There is an attempt to supply iron ions artificially, in

resources into meat, dairy products, etc. In reality, as fororder to promote the photosynthetic absorption of

livestock products, the calorie intake is worse by somecarbon dioxide in the ocean. It is also known thatfraction to even one tenth in efficiency when grain iscoasts, which have mineral supply from the land, stillcompared with food as it is, so this means that thehave a large amount of resources for the fisheries

increase in meat consumption happening in developed

industry. On the other hand, the influx of domestic

countries is markedly lowering the energy efficiency

wastewater by human activities, especially disturbanceassociated with food production. Because the calorie

to the ecological system in the water due to excessive

intake per capita according to the aforementioned foodeutrophication of coastal areas because of the influx ofstatistics is often converted on the basis of grains, indetergents and fertilizers has also become a problem.

133

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Forests, while they do not contribute much to foodof food supply is not a problem that threatens the

supply of human beings directly, make a greater

survival of humankind, which is a concern in a simple

contribution to photosynthesis on Earth than agriculture

mechanism like the one by Malthus.

at the current situation, greatly influencing the

The relationship among population, energy, and theabsorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the trend

food supply chain, however, also contains moreof organic matters that eventually reach human beings.

complicated causal relationships which cannot beManagement of forests is carried out artificially in theanalyzed from the statistics of the whole world or ofform of forestry, which also greatly changes the

specific countries. First, direct energy input invegetation on Earth, like agriculture. Currently no

agriculture and fisheries is mainly fuel, which is not

fertilization has been performed. It is also known thateasily converted by renewable energy or nuclear power.

tree species have changed greatly through logging and

In addition, food consumption as seen on a calorie basis

the associated afforestation of forests since theis not so elastic in price, but in reality, food has become

beginning of history forests as well as in forests that arehighly value-added products in developed countries,

renewed naturally. Regardless of whether this isand food production itself is placed in an extremely

artificial or not, it has changed depending on

unstable market environment. As mentioned previously,

underground

dependent,

the energy dependence of meat consumption andcompeting relationships among plants, and of course

aquaculture fisheries is high, and commodity foodthe disappearance of forests due to the felling byproduction is greatly influenced by the price of energy.

humans and desertification have also become a

In industrialized countries, agriculture as an industrial

problem. Human beings currently use a massive amountstructure declines, and the little remaining part is forcedof energy for material circulation on a global scale toto head towards producing a small quantity with highmake a large-scale intervention, such as discovery andadded value. The same applies to fisheries. On the otherbreeding of plants related to food, breed improvement

hand, even now, the income of developing countries

and formation of new species, cultivation by clones,

still has not reached food prices which are internationaland biotechnology. In the future, it is expected that

products. It is not a simple quantitative relationship but

many

environmental

the future food production of the world should be

problems, especially changing the balance of carbon

viewed as being governed by the technological progressdioxide to the side of atmospheric concentrationin the supply structure, due to the producer income anddecrease, will have a new influence even if food

food prices. There is no guarantee that the input of

production is not necessarily the main end.

high-yielding varieties which have supported the major

minerals

attempts

toandchangemutually

globalAs described above, various systems supporting

part of food production up to now will continue in thehuman food production can be sufficiently analyzed for

future. On the other hand, there is still a problem of

their characteristics, as typical examples of energy

hunger in low-income areas. As with energy, food ismaterial supply chains. As a result, considerable

also international products, and transactions must be

introduction of external energy, mainly fossil energy

made at the same price between countries with a per

and the high growth rate peculiar to it, have been thecapita GDP difference of a hundredfold or larger.

major driving force factor behind the population growthInevitably, the world will have a dual structure in which

and the prosperity of today's humanity. At least

low-income countries will use energy that is notregarding food supply up to about 10 billion people,

products to produce food that are not products, and live

which is supposed to be where the humanity’swith it. And there is no guarantee that agricultural

population will be constant, and the energy supply

production and forest management are sustainable ifconversion system necessary for that, we can say thatthey are not dependent on the monetary economy orpessimistic views are baseless for the most part if weinternational markets with insufficient quantifiableconsider the progress of food production technology

statistics.

that is still going on. In other words, the sustainability(Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage) as a

134

Furthermore,

the

trend

of

BECCS

Chapter 2

andremovesocialPopulation and Foodnon-food photosynthetic economy and emissions credit

countries,

constraints(war,markets will increase in importance in the future.

institutional deprivation, lack of social capital, etc.) forthat purpose.
On the other hand, in the local system, the food3. Food production supply chain
As seen at the end of Chapter 1 about value creation,

supply chain in the international market does not

food is basically not valuable as things, just like energy.

always make local production and local consumption

In most cases the supply chain of agricultural products

more advantageous. This is due to the fact that progressthat have been produced, and by further extending thein modern transport and storage technologies isrange of analysis, agriculture itself, is a system forreducing the usage-dependence on transportation costsdelivering food, by converting solar energy into energy

to an extreme extent (even in terms of distance andmedium that can be metabolized by humans, and thequantity). In Japan, for example, even for vegetables

cost for this operation accounts for almost all of thethat are supposed to be fresh foods, imported products

price. It is not that humans are paying for the sun, thefrom Australia or South America may be cheaper thanground, or the plants. As a matter of fact, even indomestic products. Regarding basic foods (such as

developed countries, in many areas where "food othergrains), the marginal cost of food has already becomethan commodity" is eaten in many cases, and in many

considerably low, and rather the cost of constructing

such areas where food supply really involves life andand operating the supply chain accounts for a large

death and population trends, food is not supplied

proportion. As a result, in most parts of the world where

through commercial transaction. Food is also similar to

trading is done at international prices, food can beother energy services in that the marginal cost is low,transported from the most productive area to theand can be viewed as a product of the supply chain sodemand area (to the extent that destructive price declinethat it can function to provide supply to its constituent

does not occur), food production has already been

members.

adjusted for the majority of world demand in

The essence of the food system is the energy supply

accordance with the demand. On the other hand, in thischain, with its center of gravity in the infrastructure thatway, because it has become possible to transport a large

distributes large quantities to all consumers without

quantity while maintaining quality at a relatively low

breaks. Because of this, inherently the usage system iscost even to a distant location, or because food can below, the price elasticity is small, and the marginal costpreserved time-wise regardless of the harvesting period,

is low. The agricultural communities of developing

there have been cases where competitiveness is lost in

countries (and even in developed countries, in someterms of scale, production cost, and especiallycases) basically has a closed supply chain, and its

personnel expenses and climate, even in the close

constituent members are not necessarily exchanging

proximity of place of consumption. This is similar tofood at the same price as in external markets. For thisthe phenomenon that occurred in developed countries,

reason, even if grain prices are far more expensive in

especially in the coal industry. Since agriculture has thethe international market, they can get by, andcharacter of managing while influencing a wide range

self-employed farmers in fact can get enough food inof ecosystems as well as producing food, land

many developing countries that have not failed

conservation and rural communities as a result have apolitically. Many of the problems of hunger are due togreat impact on traditional societal formation itself.

dysfunction of the food supply chain on the part ofIt has become technically possible for humanpolitics and systems. Although poverty is a problem,

civilization itself to efficiently construct a supply chain

citizens such as those in sub-Saharan countries cannotof material energy necessary for daily living acrossbuy food of at an international price even if theirquite a wide area. For this reason, the marginal cost is

income is slightly improved, and it is necessary to build

extremely low in the supply system for almost all of thea sound system that can produce food and provide

supplies necessary for human life. In both developing

supply in solving food problems in developing

and developed countries, it is for food (and water) that135

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

the supply system is formed first, otherwise society

the scope of self-sufficiency on its economic scale cancannot be established. In that living sphere system,be supported, while cities are more productive and food

food, energy, and water are physically available in theas commodities can be obtained in that area. On theamount necessary for daily living, and within that

other hand, also the social structure itself is changing

range, a system has been constructed in which thegreatly with changes in the food supply system, because

majority of the constituent members can acquire themthe supply chain is in close contact with the lives of theprice-wise. Because such mechanisms also occur inhumankind itself. The food supply in the major cities onhumanity by movement and migration of individuals, awhich today's human beings depend is the logistics andconspicuous increase in the population of humankind isservice industries, and much of their costs are on theoccurring in cities in developing countries. As asystem and operation, not on the raw materials.

community, in rural areas, only the population within

136

Chapter 2 Population and Food

4. Sustainable water supply
Satoshi Konishi
an exceptional case globally, but the necessary amount

1. Typical material supply chain
The water resource problem is a representativeof drinking water is 2 liters per day per person, and forexample of the fact that it is actually a transit typedomestic water this ranges from 100 to 1,000 liters. The

circulation like the energy, while it appears to be ademand for water is larger for agricultural and industrial

consumable resource material supply chain. Water

uses, which account for a large part of water resource

resources

are

they

are

use, but the water quality required for that is different

throughout

thefrom that of drinking water. Agricultural water is usedenvironment. "Depletion" of water resources is not afor irrigation, but if the water is at the level of river

shortage as a quantity, but it is a problem of the supply

water or groundwater, special treatment is unnecessary,

chain in which the supply speed cannot keep up withand the only cost is for transportation. For the above

consumption rate. Originally, water bypasses thereasons the price is extremely cheap, and globally there

process of precipitation flowing through the river into

are many cases where it is provided at a fixed price.

the sea, and then this is used by human beings. There

Consequently, incentives for conservation do not

are some instances where precipitation that becomesfunction well, but this is also an example of agroundwater is pumped up similarly. Basically, it iszero-marginal cost system that is characteristic of

typical of renewable resources, and if a system has

infrastructure-dependent

simply been constructed which supplies the requiredsaving is possible through drip irrigation, and indeed

amount properly in the human beings' living spheresome Middle Eastern and developed countries use this.

when needed and where needed, in many cases it is

Water is required in large amounts, and transportation

supplied to consumers in a way that is close to one ofis difficult except by a waterway, so human beings havezero marginal cost. Once the system is constructed,

from the beginning lived within the range of theirwater passes through it, so the cost does not depend on

supply capability, where water is available, and haveadditional usage, whether the water is used or not.

constituted their living sphere there. The fact that

incompressibleofandcoursefinite,circulatebut

supply chains.

Significant

On most of the surface of Earth is extremely rich inagricultural water accounts for a large part of the water

water as a material, but most of it is salt water in the

demand by human beings is the reason why, when water

ocean, and there are few water resources of wateris necessary for food production and only food could be

quality suitable for human use, and that is the freshwater

imported, it has still been made possible for humanon a limited part of the surface. In addition, for the

beings to live where water (for agriculture) cannot be

purpose of supply this is accompanied by added value

supplied and living spheres have been constructed. As a(value creation) through input of energy and technology

result, the supply chain of water can be considered(purification, separation, transportation, distribution

including the concept of "virtualetc.), and that should be all that a supply chain is. Raw

considering food. As a result, food supply fromwater itself is free and inexhaustible just as sunlight,

extremely remote water resource-rich areas to urban

wind power, etc., are, but the supply amount has a time

population-dense areas is made possible. Virtual water

constant and limit due to the natural environment.

makes it possible for the entire human beings toGround water supply time constants vary widely fromconsume a larger amount of water without transporting

several days to tens of thousands of years, and in theit for a long distance and using it, and the amount ofsense that it can be depleted due to use exceeding thewater

supply rate, it has a similar limit as biomass (especiallyconstraints of the supply chain.

used

has

increasedbeyondwater"

thewhen

physicalwoody biomass). In Japan, the quality of tap water is at

Industrial water, which accounts for tens of percent of

the level of drinking water level in the world, which is

the use of water resources, is mainly used for cleaning137

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

and cooling, which are only devalued and aremuch. While some of the shorter generation time

renewable. As for domestic water, almost the same

constants are several days, some of the longer ones, foramount flows into the river, etc., from the sewage after

example, like Mt. Fuji’s floodwater, takes several

use, and it may be used in the downstream as well. In

hundred years, and large groundwater found in

this point, it is different from agricultural water that iscontinents have a time constant of hundreds ofultimately lost in soil absorption or evaporation. In a

thousands of years, and the rate of regeneration cannot

sense, unlike ceramic water for which we do not have tocatch up with the pace when it gets pumped up too

think about “post-treatment," these water supply chainsmuch. If the water is made to flow out to the river more

occupy a large proportion of wastewater treatment, butquickly because the earth surface gets covered withthis issue will be discussed in the next section. Includingasphalt due to urbanization, or trees in mountainous

purification by the natural environment, it is possible inareas are cut, the amount of effective available water

terms of cost and labor, and river water including

resources decrease.

sewage can be recycled in this way, if necessary.

Where there is a limit to circulation with natural

Water for agriculture also eventually returns toenergy, in the sense that artificial energy input can

precipitation via evaporation or underground water, andconstruct a supply chain, water and agricultural products

the use of water by human beings is not different in thatare the same. Even now, Middle Eastern oil producing

it bypasses the circulation amount in the vicinity ofcountries (Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, UAE) make

Earth's surface. Ultimately, it is similar to the biospherewater by desalination of seawater. Water distillation andstated in Chapter 1, and water resources are sustainable

reverse osmosis membrane method are the main

as long as the necessary water resources in the closed

technologies, and it can be easily manufactured

water circulation system are able to add value to thetechnically, but energy consumption is much larger thanrequired

input.

that of processing river water, etc. However, this is also

Conversely, water supply will be depleted unless thewater

qualitybysomeenergyevidence that what restricts the real supply chain insupply chain is normally operated and maintained, andwater resources is the energy supply, not the waterenergy supply is provided to the extent that it enables

supply. Since this raw cost is 100 yen per kiloliter orentropy reduction which is a separation of work ofless at the current energy price, it can be said that thiswater quality.

decides the upper limit of the water resource price at

The supply shortage caused by the deviation of the

global level by the backstop effect. The amount ofphysical constraints of the supply chain from the waterenergy required for seawater desalination is huge in

consumption may trigger the "depletion" problem that

response to the demand for water, but the quality of

typically occurs in "renewable" resources, in the senseenergy does not have to be high. Therefore, it can bethat the required water does not reach people or placesused with low-quality direct solar or windmill powerthat need it. Every water resource is a finite resourcethat does not have to be strictly controlled for thethat is dependent on the amount of supply from thestability and voltage frequency by putting it into

upstream even if it is renewable. It is exhaustible from

low-temperature heat of the exhaust heat level

the viewpoint of supply rate, and it seems to beaccompanied by the nuclear power generation or into

inexhaustible within that limit, if it exceeds the limit, it

the grid. In other words, we can say that it is possible towill not be renewed. When we talk about the upstream,

introduce

if it can be obtained through evaporation, condensation

low-carbonization of the energy system in the future,and precipitation in the clouds, or underground filtration

especially along with the rapid energy development ofprocess, it means that there is a constraint on thedeveloping countries, and access to water is an issue

circulation rate by solar energy and gravitational energy,

that is comparatively easy to solve through energy andrespectively.

technology.

For this reason, groundwater is inexhaustible within
its supply, but it is exhausted if it is pumped up too

138

it

by

cogeneration,

etc.,

along

with

Chapter 2

Population and Food

low in concentration and promptly discharged to the

2. Water supply as a service medium
In agriculture (irrigation), mainly water is used on theocean, etc., it will be rendered harmless by diffusion,

ground surface in the open system, and after changing

decompositionbythe route of the river and groundwater flow, etc.,

processes in the natural world. If this exceeds theeventually the majority is evaporated, lost, andprocessing throughput of the environmental purification

circulated to the precipitation. In this regard, it has aprocess, the entire water supply chain will fail unless it

supply chain very similar to natural energy. Dams andis processed with a waste liquid technology. Since theinflow-type hydropower generation are systems inproblem of water is not only a supply problem but also awhich water use and power generation coexist in the

problem of securing throughput in a closed circulation

first place. Although it seems that this does not

system,intervene much in the water circulation in the naturalenvironmental pollution are often more important, and ifworld, environmental impacts are not negligible because

we want to use water exceeding the limits of theof the nature of water as a medium, which may notabove-mentioned natural energy circulation system, wealways be sustainable. Domestic and industrial water aremust build and operate a system for increasing

mainly distributed in a closed system, and it is usedthroughput and entropy emissions through artificial

exclusively as a material and heat transport medium.

energy input. This applies not only to the supply side

Even in these processes, it seems that water is used in

but also to the waste liquid treatment side, and actuallylarge quantities, but it does not mean that the water itself

wastewater treatment may result in large expenses andis consumed but that only the route is changed for thelarge costs of social efforts, system construction, andwater to pass through. Most of it is streamed to the river

operation. Especially when contaminants are spreador sea, as sewage or industrial waste water, and thewidely when water is drained, it will take a lot of labor

sustainability of the environment again becomes aand cost to recover it. On the other hand, if harmful

problem here.

substances are also diluted and diffused in the ocean, it

processing

other

of

creatures

sewageandchemicaldrainage

andBecause the plundering of water from the river byis also possible to isolate them from the living spheredams and agriculture naturally means the plundering offor a sufficiently long period of time, even when viewed

the water at the river basin in large quantities, it affects

from the time constants of human survival.

vegetation, and because it hinders the arrival of

In thermal and nuclear power plants, the discharge of

sediment on the coast, a great decrease in sandy beaches

heat itself is the main function comprising the heat

has already been observed in Japan. Dams themselvesengine, and exhaust heat to the environment can affectalso need dredging due to sediment deposition, and theyit. For example, wastewater with a temperature higher

are not necessarily sustainable. On the other hand,than 7 degrees above the raw water is not permitted inirrigation has the effect of sucking up salt from theJapan, but wastewater with an extra high temperatureground, causing the destruction of the well-known

dilutes and releases this extra entropy by evaporation

Mesopotamian civilization.

and heat dissipation to the surrounding environment.

As mentioned earlier, water for domestic andIn other words, the main function of water use is toindustrial uses is used as a medium to carry materials

discharge a large amount of entropy in the process.

and heat. Sorting and cleansing in the mining industry

Conversely, filtration of water and production ofalso separate useful substances from unnecessary

drinking water are purification of water and extraction

substances, or transports pollutants, and do not reduceof entropy from it, which consume energy. Water can be

the amount of water itself but dissolve and suspend

regarded as not consumable by itself but as one form ofpollutants and carry them to sewers and rivers.

entropy discharge by energy use. In the series of

Substances that must be removed from the product line

processes such as flow by gravitational energy, filtration

due to the mining process are carried away after being

in the ground, diffusion in the ocean, and evaporation

cleansed with water, and then discharged. If this isand condensation in high altitude, water circulation inemitted in the environment, as long as it is sufficiently

the environment has a sustainable system structure139

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

similar to the ones in Figures B-1 through B-3 in
Chapter 1, that is, circulation by and entropy discharge
by natural energy and entropy decrease of water itself

140

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

1. Whether the Paris Agreement will work: Its evaluation and issues
In the Paris Agreement, the agreement was reached on a long-term goal aimed at "zeroemissions" in the latter half of the century, and on a mechanism that would raise targets toachieve long-term goals by having each country review its own target every five years. In
order for the Paris Agreement to function effectively, it is necessary to establish
international rules by which the international scheme under the Paris Agreement, including
this target raising mechanism, will effectively operate. The progress of countermeasures for
decarbonization in each country is the key. Economically rational choices have come to be
seen for developing countries towards decarbonization while responding to the expansionof energy demand that accompanies economic development, due to the reduced cost of
renewable energy. As a result, the position of developing countries is starting to change,
which has previously shown a negative attitude toward strengthening internationalcountermeasures against global warming. The Paris Agreement affects not only the nations
but also the behavior of business, finance, and investors in particular, and that has enhanced
the support for the Paris Agreement and its effectiveness.
2. Rethinking the meaning of sustainability
Environmental problems arise when the waste generated by human activity exceeds thelimit that is acceptable by the natural environment, and when we use renewable resources
beyond that limit when it was supposed to be used within the range in which originally they
could have been reproduced. Also, in the way of thinking about “strong sustainability”,
there is a recognition that natural capital cannot be substituted by other artificial capitals,
etc. While human beings have produced much artificial capital so far, they have caused
degradation of the natural capital that has supported life on Earth. Taking that humbly, we
should dare to think about future sustainability based on "strong sustainability."
3. Sustainable cities and transport
In urban areas where the majority of human activities are performed, its spatial structure
prescribes the manner of activities. Especially transport activities consumes much energy
and generates much environmental load. The sustainability of the city depends on theplanning and management of the transport network and modes because the interrelationshipwith the urban spatial structure is also strong. Logistics gains its relative importance bydiffusion of IT. More efficient logistics caused by the compactification of urban areas,enhancement of added value of people’s movement, and low-carbonization are in demand.

141

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

1. Whether the Paris Agreement will work: Its evaluation and issues
Yukari Takamura
Agreement was agreed upon at COP21 as a result of

1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement
On December 12, 2015, the Conference of the Parties

negotiations that began in 2012, aiming at the creation

to the United Nations Framework Convention onof an international treaty by which all countries would

Climate Change (COP 21) adopted the Paris Agreementagree on reduction.

and the COP decision on its implementation. The Paris

Now, will the Paris Agreement effectively function toAgreement is an international treaty for the first time inachieve its long-term goals of 2°C target and zero

18 years since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol,

emission in 2100?

agreed to deal with global warming (climate change)
issues.

2. What was decided in the Paris Agreement

The international community has so far established a

As with the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement is aframework for international coping with climate change

legally binding international treaty consisting of 29

problems

Changearticles. In addition to the emission reduction measures,

Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol adopted

the Paris Agreement also specifies transparency ofbased on it at the 1997 Kyoto Conference (COP3).

adaptation measures, funds, technology development

However, the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol,and transfer, capacity building, action, and support towhich imposed duty on emission reduction only forthe adverse effects of climate change. Due to thedeveloped countries, was questioned on account of theconstraints of the space of this paper, I will focus on theeconomic development of emerging economies and thefollowing three points considered characteristic of theaccompanying

Paris Agreement as compared with the previous

based

on

the

increase

1992

inClimateemissions,

and

the

non-participation of the United States. Although it wasinternational framework.

aimed to establish an international framework in which

2-1. Long-term goal aimed at "decarbonization"

alland "zero emission" in the second half of thiscountries

promisetoconduct

reductioninternationally, and while an agreement could not be

century

reached at the Copenhagen Convention (COP15),

Particularly important among the agreements of thedeveloped countries and major emerging countries

Paris Agreement is the fact that long-term goals andamong others submitted and have implemented theirvision that the international community would aim at2020 targets based on the political agreement at thewere more clearly defined. Under the growing concern

2010 Cancun Conference (COP16) (the Cancun

worldwide over the negative impacts of climate change,

Agreements). However, even if the 2020 target

the Agreement aimed to strengthen global response tosubmitted by each country is accumulated, emissions

the threat of climate change, and for that purpose

cannot be reduced enough to achieve the 2°C target ofstipulated that the world's average temperature rise kept

keeping the temperature rise below 2°C compared toto the level “well below” 2°C compared to before thebefore the industrialization, which was agreed upon byindustrialization, and that efforts be made to keep it

the international community as a long-term goal. The

within 1.5°C (Article 2). In addition, in order to achieve

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

this goal, the Paris Agreement stipulated that thesaid in the latest 5th Assessment Report (2014) that, inworld's emissions set off as soon as possible, and then,a scenario with a high possibility of keeping thein accordance with the best of scientific knowledge, it

temperature rise below 2°C compared to before theaimed at a rapid reduction in a way that would maintain

Industrial Revolution ("2°C Scenario”), greenhouse gas

the balance between anthropogenic emissions ofemissions would be nearly zero or negative in 2100

greenhouse gases and its anthropogenic absorption incompared to 2010. With such a background, the Paristhe second half of the century (Article 4.1), showing a142

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

vision of a decarbonated society and economy that

reduction target (nationally determined contribution;

would make emission substantially zero (zero emission)

NDC) to be achieved, and to implement domesticin the second half of this century.

measures for achieving the target (Article 4.2). Using

As the British "The Guardian" newspaper called thethe results of the overall progress evaluation (global

adoption of the Agreement "the end of the fossil fuelstocktake) towards the long-term goals (Article 14) asera," the Paris Agreement showed the common value

the guideline, each country has an obligation to submit

and vision aimed at by the international community,

its target every five years (Article 4.9) Just because they

which was to be free of fossil fuel dependence. The

create their own target, it does not mean that the goal

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, while identifying the

may be anything. It has to exceed the given country’s

eight major climate change risks with high confidence

current target, and it must be a maximum possible target

such as flood damage in metropolitan areas, outages of(Article 4.03). The Paris Agreement, which stipulates

infrastructure due to extreme weather phenomena, etc.,that a target be submitted every five years continuously,

many other major risks were an important issue for theis supposed to be a sustainable framework that will

least developed countries with limited capabilities andcontinue until the long-term goals are realized, not until

communities which would be easily-affected. Not to

the immediate targets are achieved.

mention the 1.5°C target, the 2°C target is not an easy

In the case of the Kyoto Protocol, the target levels

goal by any means, but in consideration of the risk ofwere determined through negotiation among countries

climate change faced by the most sensitive countries

and prescribed in the Protocol, and then the Protocol

and people despite having made little contribution towas concluded and implemented (also called theemissions, the international community agreed to“top-down approach"). On the other hand, in the Parischoose to reduce emission and aim to achieve it.

Agreement, the level of the target to be achieved is

These long-term targets provide guidelines for eachdetermined by the government on its own, and thecountry, including Japan, to create and implementtarget is to be the international target under the Paristargets, as well as show directions of the future society

Agreement (also called the “bottom-up approach").

and businesses to businesses and citizens who will be

Because according to the Paris Agreement, eachkey players of reform for decarbonization. The reportcountry creates its own goal, while certain conditions

by thinktank 'Carbon Tracker' and the University ofare attached to the target to be submitted (in some cases

London (LSE) Grantham Institute, "Unburnable Carbon

additional conditions may be added in the negotiation

2013” pointed out that merely burning all fossil fuelof future implementation rules), so it may be more

assets that private companies have already invested inappropriate to call it the "Hybrid Approach."developing, excluding government-owned assets, would

The

Paris

Agreement

does

not

obligetheresult in emission going well above level of the carbon"achievement" of the targets because, in addition toemissions that could keep the temperature rise to 3°C,

countries like China and India being reluctant, thenot to mention to 2°C, and the investment in the fossil

United States was also reluctant, which wanted tofuel business would take the risk of not being able toconclude the Agreement as an international agreement

recoverthewhich would not require advice and approval of theunrecoverable assets "stranded assets." In this way, theSenate. However, regarding this way that the rule of thelong-term goal such as the 2°C goal uncovers the risk of

Paris Agreement was made, the explanation that "there

investing in future fossil fuel projects.

is no legal obligation for each country regardingits

investment.

The

reportcalledreduction" is incorrect. A country that does not create
2-2. A sustainable framework for raising targets

and submit their targets every five years will beevery five years, aiming for the long-term goalconsidered violating the obligation prescribed in the

The Kyoto Protocol obliged developed countries toParis Agreement. Also, if a country does not implement"achieve" numerical targets, but the Paris Agreement

domestic measures in good faith to achieve its targets, itmandates all countries to create, submit, and retain thecan be deemed to be in violation of their obligations

143

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

prescribed in the Paris Agreement. Each country reportmechanism for approaching the 2°C target by having

will the progress of measures for achieving reduction

every country review the target every five years andtargets once every two years and receive internationalraise the target based on the assessment of the overall

examination (Article 13), and the Paris Agreement will

progress (Figure B-12). Furthermore, the decisions at

establish a mechanism to promote implementation and

COP21 also requested that a "promotional dialogue" becompliance concerning cases in which compliance with

conducted in 2018 before the full-scale start of the Paristhe obligations of the Agreement will become an issue

Agreement, and that each country review its target(Article 15). These detailed rules are planned to bewhich they have submitted, and submit new targets byadopted at COP24 in 2018.

2020. The 2030 target submitted by Japan (26%

For COP 21, most countries of the international

reduction from 2013 = 25.4% reduction from 2005) willcommunity, including major emitter countries, havealso be reviewed as to whether the target can be raised

submitted targets following 2020. However, theby 2020. The Paris Agreement has also prescribed aInternational Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that,

responsibility to strive to create medium- to long-term

although when these goals are fully implemented, it

strategies for emission reductions by around 2050

will suppress the rise in temperature below the current(Article 4.19). Submission of these strategies has beenstate, the temperature will rise well above 2°C by 2100.

requested to be made by 2020 by the decision at COP21.

For this reason, the Paris Agreement set up a

Figure B-12

Target raising (ratchet-up) mechanism

144

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

dutiesdifferentiation between the responsibilities of developed

considering the reality, while directing toward one

and developing countries (Article 4.4). Regarding

framework

adaptation measures, it has been made a common

2-3.

Fine-grained

differentiationof

The Framework Convention on Climate Change andobligation for all countries to work on implementing of

the Kyoto Protocol, describe the names of developed

the adaptation planning processes and adaptive actions

countries in the Annex (listing) in accordance with the(Article 7.9). However, it provides the stipulation of "asCommon But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR)

appropriate," and gives the country great discretion with

Principle (Article 3.1). By doing so, it divides them into

respect to fulfilling its obligation.

the group of developed countries (Annex I countries)

The framework of transparency, that is, theand the group of other countries (non-Annex I

frameworkcountries), and basically imposes the legal obligation ofcountermeasures and assessment, has established athe former. Such a scheme which bisected the countries

common framework regardless of developed orinto developed and developing countries came to be

developing countries, while it gives developing

questioned with regard to its validity, due to thecountries flexibility in implementing them according toeconomic development of the emerging countries suchtheir capacity. Regarding the obligation to submit

as China and India and the increase of the emissions

information, it will make a differentiation according toaccompanying it, especially since the 2000s. Whilethe differentiation of the substantive obligations fordeveloped countries insisted on building a single

each

framework resolving the differentiation based on themeasures, adaptation measures, and financial support

bisection, among developing countries, those thatmeasures. The obligation to submit the information onquestioned the responsibility of developed countries forthemaking emissions historically insisted on adhering to

information necessary for follow-up of the progress of

conventional differentiation that bisected developed

the reduction targets is an obligation common to all

countries and developing countries.

countries. As for information on adaptation, since the

of

of

the

amountreporton

aforementionedofemissionstheprogresses

emissionandofreduction

absorption

andThe Paris Agreement will make a very exquisite andsubstantive obligations give the country large discretion,

detailed differentiation of the obligations, based on theit is limited to the duty to make a submission when it isreality according to the nature of the problems such as

appropriate (Article 13.8). As for Information onemission reduction measures and adaptation measures,support, the developed countries are obliged to submit

while directing toward a single framework in the future.

information as support is their legal obligation, but for

For example, regarding emission reduction, as

other countries for whom support is not a legal

described above, it has been made a common legal

obligation, submission of information is only a duty. On

obligation of all countries to create and submit

the other hand, concerning the submitted information, it

reduction targets, and to implement domestic measures

is an obligation of all countries to conduct examination

towards its achievement. On top of this, the Parisby experts and participate in multilateral examination

Agreement prescribes the political obligations of theon progress.

developed countries that will take a lead by committing
to the absolute emissions target for each country

3. How to view the Paris Agreement: Its evaluationaccording to the Kyoto Protocol, and the politicaland issues

obligations of developing countries that will continue to

3-1. Is the Paris Agreement effective?

make reduction efforts, and introduces the concept ofHow effective really is the Paris Agreement in“concentric differentiation,” which will encourage

dealing with climate change?

developing countries to head towards country-wide

The Paris Agreement established a framework inemissions reduction and control targets such as those ofwhich all countries would submit reduction targets

developed countries' goals over time, while making aregardless of the distinction between developed and145

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

developing countries, making an international promise

towards decarbonization by implementing the goals thatto implement measures to achieve the targets, thereby

it submitted, no matter what. To that end, therealizing a shift from the conventional regime. By

establishment of an international rules is the key, by

adopting a method whereby each country creates awhich it is made possible to secure implementation oftarget and submit it, as almost all countries in thetargets by each country, and to raise the target in theinternational community submitted their targets ahead

5-year cycle. At the same time, international rules toof COP21, the Paris Agreement is expected to increase

support decarbonization progress in each country are

the effectiveness of the scheme by expanding the scope

important, and among them are, 1) rules on the processof the countries that have international reduction targetsof the 5-year cycle of “evaluation of overall progress ->and raising the universality of participation.

creation of the targets and submission by each country

Meanwhile, the mechanism in which each country-> evaluation of overall progress,” 2) rules on thesets its own target does not automatically guarantee aframework transparency which would make transparent

solution to problems. Even if the targets submitted byand promote the progress the implementation ofeach country are accumulated, it will not reach thedomestic measures of each country, and 3) the rules on

reduction level necessary to achieve the long-term goalmechanisms

set by the Paris Agreement. In addition, the way thatcompliance. These rules are scheduled to be adopted ateach country creates a target (i.e., decides the reduction

COP24 to be held in 2018, and negotiations for making

level), if the country does not set a target in good faithrules will become full-fledged in the future.

forpromoting

implementationandand does it arbitrarily, will impair the fairness of thescheme of the Paris Agreement, possibly allowing each

3-2. Evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol

country to lower the reduction level due to concerns

How to evaluate the Kyoto Protocol is one of theabout free riders, or impairing participation of eachissues in evaluating the Paris Agreement. From Table

country in the scheme, which may result in impairment

B-1, which compares the Kyoto Protocol, the Cancunof its effectiveness.

Agreements which set rules up to 2020, and the Paris

Whether the Paris Agreement will be truly effective

Agreement, we can see changes in the scheme among

depends on whether each country can steadily progressthese.

146

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

Table B-1

Comparison between the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement

Through negotiations and implementation of thethat reduction targets were imposed only on developed

Kyoto Protocol, a social norm of consciousness tocountries. At the time of the adoption of the Framework

suppress and reduce greenhouse gas emissions was

Convention on Climate Change in 1992, developed

fostered, and measures against global warming incountries, which accounted for around 20% of thedeveloped countries advanced much further than before

population, emitted 70% of the world's greenhousethe adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto

gases or more, and the mechanism by which developed

Mechanism which would use markets, the Adaptation

countries would fulfill their reduction obligations ahead

Fund that would not be dependent on contributionsof others was reasonable. However, as a result, thefrom developed countries, and other innovative

method adopted by the Kyoto Protocol of writing down

schemes that did not exist previously were born.

the country name in the Annex (i.e., listing) fixed theRemember that many of the components of theseclassification of the countries based on their national

schemes in the Kyoto Protocol were handed over to thecircumstances at that certain point in time, and theParis Agreement as well. The concept of concentric

protocol was unable to respond to the drastic change in

differentiation

the circumstances, which was increased emissions inwasintroduced,wheredeveloped

countries would continue to have their Kyoto-style

emerging countries, including China and India.

reduction targets, and developing countries would shift

The Paris Agreement did not adopt the listing in theto such targets over time. It was decided that the market

form of writing down the names of the countries in themechanism would also be set up under the Paris

Annex, and despite the provision which adopted theAgreement.

distinction of developed and developing countries, it

As a problem of the Kyoto Protocol, it is pointed out

does not explicitly specify to which category a country147

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

belongs. It can be said that it is a scheme with theforests bore the aspect of “renegotiation of goals." Theinherentin

Kyoto Protocol made it possible to agree on COP3 bycircumstances. On the other hand, it may be said that it

flexibility

torespondtochangesmaking it a protocol that could be called a "framework

is a method for each country to decide on its own which

protocol" that would entrust detailed implementation

category it belongs to, but if a country arbitrarily carries

rules to the negotiations of the COP after adoption,

it out, there is a risk of impairing the fairness of thewhile it left negotiations on implementation rules that

Paris Agreement’s scheme.

would substantively influence the level of targets,thereby postponing the domestic implementation of the
Kyoto Protocol to the point of the agreement of the

3-3. Early entry into force of the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement came into force on November 4,

implementation rules. As a result, it ended up taking

2016. The entry into force in less than a year from its

over 7 years from the adoption to conclusion and entry

adoption is a very unusual rate as a multilateral treaty,

into force.

including the environment treaties. As of April 7, 2017,

On the other hand, in the case of the Paris Agreement,

142 countries and the European Union ratified it, which

because each country took the method of considering

was an equivalent of more than 80% of the world's

and submitting its own target before adopting thegreenhouse gas emissions, including that of Japan.

Agreement, the process of domestic implementation

The entry into force was also aimed to be made in 2016,

began early. Probably because Japan takes a full

because even if as a result of the U.S. presidential

security principle when concluding a treaty, it createdelection the administration tried to withdraw from theand submitted a 2030 target with some prospects ofParis Agreement, it would not be able to withdraw

achievement by gathering the policies and measures

immediately (see below). The ratification by eachplanned by each ministry and agency. As a result,country at this exceptional speed is also an expression

before the Paris Agreement was agreed upon, theof the strong will of the countries to ensure that the

ground for the plan of implementation of the target had

Paris Agreement will be the key to future climate

already been created. Because of this, the discussion ofchange measures, without being influenced by thethe global warming countermeasure plan after thedomestic politics of the United States, and an

adoption of the Paris Agreement was based on that

expression of the expectation for the Agreement. Indeed,premise, considering the long-term goals stipulated by

the conclusion of the Paris Agreement has been

the Paris Agreement, and was limited to discussion ofprogressing even after the change of the administration

issues such as how to set long-term goals for Japan.

in the United States.

In this way, the domestic implementation process

The Kyoto Protocol set reduction targets for each

substantially began before the decision of the targets indeveloped country, but did not begin domestic

the international negotiations and the decision of theimplementation process immediately after adoption.

implementation rules, and it became possible toIndeed,andconclude more quickly than the Kyoto Protocol and to

implementation began after COP7 in 2001 when thestart early domestic implementation. In addition, theimplementation rules of the Kyoto Protocol were

implementation rules concerning emission reduction

agreed upon. Because each country recognized thatmeasures to be decided through negotiations from now

some implementation rules included things that could

are set to apply to the second and subsequent targets,change the level of targets for each country, depending

and by deciding that its application to the targets

on the rule. For example, the amount of absorption

submitted by each country for COP21 this time is up to

from absorption sources such as domestic forests is set

each of them, it has become possible to conclude theby Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, but theParis Agreement prior to the agreement on thelevel of targets agreed upon at COP3 may vary

implementation rules and to accelerate the start ofdepending on how much of this is accepted. Indeed, thedomestic implementation.

domestic

processes

forconclusion

negotiations on the rules of absorption sources such as

148

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

4. Why was the Paris Agreement agreed upon - a

reduction by at least 27% of the final energy

worldwide “great energy shift" that changed theconsumption, and make at least 45% of the total power

rules of the game -generation renewable energy. Although the U.S. energy

Due to the economic development and politicalpolicy is led by each state, about 30 states will set a

emergence of emerging economies, the interests oftarget for renewable energy. For example, in 2030,

developing countries have diversified, resulting in an

California will make 50% of its total retail electricity

increase in the number of players in negotiations,renewable energy, New York State 50% of the total

complicating the negotiations. These changes also

power generation, and Hawaii 50% of the total retailcreate pressures to change existing rules. In such aelectricity.

period of change for the international community, it isChina will also set the 2030 target of making the

not easy to obtain consensus among many countries,

non-fossil fuel ratio of primary energy consumption to

not just in global warming negotiations. Six years after

about 20% from the current 10%, and India will also set

the breakdown at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009,the 2030 target of making 40% of total capacity of

why was it possible to reach the Paris Agreement at

electric power facilities of non-fossil fuel origin. It will

COP21?

promote the decarbonization of the energy department

First of all, 2016 was the year of U.S. presidential

at a considerable speed and scale, and it will be theelection, and with the future of the new administration

renewable energy that will be the pillar. For example,

after 2017 being uncertain, there was a shared sense ofIndia aims to introduce solar power of 100GW which iscrisis that the consensus would be further delayed if

100 times the current amount by 2020, and introduce

COP21 was missed, achievement of 2°C goal would

60GW of wind power which is 20 times the current

become more difficult, and the risk of the adverselevel. In the energy mix of 2030, which is the basis ofeffects of the climate change would increase. The

Japan's

second reason is the elaborate ”planning" by the Obamacompared to the 2013 level and 25.4% reduction

administration of the U.S. to make it possible to reachcompared to the 2005 level), the 2030 renewable energy

the agreement in Paris. The administration positioned

targets are 22-24% of total power generation andthe agreement as its “legacy” a few years prior to

13-14% of the final energy consumption.

globalwarmingtarget(26%

reduction

COP21, urging all countries to submit their targets by

On the other hand, the regulation of carbon dioxideusing all diplomatic channels and making it a top

emission on the thermal power plants is expanding.

priority, and established a summit-level consensus byFrance launched the direction of abolishing domestic

the major emitter countries in advance on the central

coal-fired power by 2023, the U.K. by 2025, andelements of the Paris Agreement. The third is the

Canada by 2030. On April 5, 2017, the federation ofcommand taken by the chair country France. The Paris

European electric power companies announced aAgreement contributed to restoring confidence instatement that, excluding Poland and Greece, nomultilateralism,ofcoal-fired power plant will be newly established after

diplomacy" by which the international community

2020. Coal-fired power supplied about 70% of

could act in union on global issues that needed

electricity in China in 2015, but measures were taken

cooperation by multiple countries.

and it declined by about 10% compared with the 2011

demonstrating

"the

power

Another important background that established thelevel. In 2014, the production and consumption of coal

Paris Agreement is a global movement that could be

declined for the first time since 2000, and further

called the ”Great Energy Transition.” Both Europe anddeclined in 2015. In the world as a whole, thethe U.S. will greatly reduce coal-fired power by 2030 toconsumption of coal in 2015 decreased by 2.3%, which

2040, and turn the rudder of policy into transitioning tois an unprecedented decline in the past 45 years.

gas and expanding use of renewable energy. On the

Each country’s circumstances vary, such as shale gas

premise of the 2030 target of at least 40% reduction

and air pollution problems, but lowering of the cost ofcompared to the 1990 level, the EU aims to make therenewable energy through technological development

149

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

and mass introduction is a common factor that drives it.

for developing countries towards decarbonization while

For example, according to the International Renewable

responding to domestic requests of the expansion ofEnergy Agency (IRENA), the cost of solar power of theenergyworld halved in the five years from 2010 to 2014,

development, due to the reduced cost of renewablebecoming a competitive level cost-wise with thermalenergy, especially the solar power which does not

power generation. The cost of onshore wind power

require construction of a large-scale electrical grids. As

generation has already become competitive with theacost of thermal power generation at the stage of 2010.

countermeasures will restrict the use of "cheap" energy

This is in contrast to the nuclear power whose

and become a “hindrance" of economic development,

generation cost has risen due to safety measures taken

developing countries that have demonstrated a negative

after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

attitudeaccident. The power generation cost of the British

countermeasures have started to change their position.

Hinckly Point C Nuclear Power Station is assumed todemandresult,

from

that

the

towardaccompanies

idea

that

strengthening

economic

globalglobalwarming

warmingWith the adoption of the Paris Agreement as an

be 85-125 pounds per MWh, and the government plansoccasion,

supportfordeveloping

countriesisto guarantee the price for 35 years at 92.50 pounds,

increasingly focusing on decarbonization and renewablewhich is considerably higher than the wholesale

energy. One example is the Solar Alliance in which 120

electricity market price. The British Audit and Researchcountries or more participated by the initiatives of

Office report in July 2016 introduced the British

Prime Minister Modi of India and President Hollande of

Department of Energy's forecast that in 2025 the cost ofFrance, and with India also contributing, it aims toonshore wind and large-scale solar power generation

mobilize an investment of 1 trillion USD necessary towould be 50-75 pounds or even well below it.

introduce solar power facilities by 2030. Games among

The impact of such a major turnaround in energy has

nations concerning global warming are turning into a

already appeared in the emissions trend from the energy

game of how to promote energy switchover insector. Since 2013, the world's energy-origin carbon

cooperation towards a decarbonized society, from how

dioxide emissions in 2014, 2015, and 2016 transitioned

to distribute "burden" of emission reduction among

flat, despite the global economy growing by about 3%

nations.

(i.e., the decoupling of economic growth and carbon

Reduction in the cost of renewable energy pushes

dioxide emissions). According to the IEA, when thedown demand for fossil fuels, becoming a contributing

emissions did not increase in the last 40 years, it was

factor to oversupply and price reduction and increasing

limited to economic stagnation periods such as duringconsumption of fossil fuels in Southeast Asia and thethe oil shock, collapse of the Soviet Union, and Lehman

Middle East, which is increasing carbon dioxide

Shock. My analysis is that the reasons are improvement

emissions. Cost reduction of renewable energy does notin energy efficiency and expansion of renewable energy.

mean that

For example, in 2015, for the first time in history, theswitchover. What is important is a "policy" that shows

capacity of renewable energy facilities exceeded that ofclear direction and vision towards decarbonization andcoal power generation facilities, and the capacity ofpromotes energy switchover.

itwill automatically realize

energynewly-built renewable energy facilities exceeded that of
newly-built fossil fuel and nuclear power generation

5. Business and financial changes accelerated by thefacilities. The introduction is expanding at a rate faster

Paris Agreement

than predicted, and the investment amount in renewable

With COP 21 as an occasion, the world’s majorenergy in 2015 recorded the highest ever and thecompanies have begun to focus on decarbonization in

investment amount in renewable energy excluding

the second half of the century. Also in Japan, Toyota

large-scale hydroelectric power is twice or more thanMotor announced "Toyota Environmental Challenge

the amount of investment in coal and gas.

2050" in October 2015. This will reduce CO 2 emissions

Economically rational choices have come to be seen

while travelling (on the average) of new cars sold

150

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

worldwide by Toyota by 90% compared to the level ofasset."

2010, and cut the CO2 emissions from the factories toWith the COP21 as an occasion, the movement tozero. Furthermore, it aims for zero CO2 in the life cycle

seek “divestment (investment withdrawal)" from fossil

from material production to disposal. Efforts aimed atfuel businesses, especially coal businesses, has also

zero emissions in the entire supply chain have a great

become strengthened. The Norwegian Government

ripple effect on its suppliers. Similarly, Nissan Motor

Pension Fund, one of the world's leading pension funds

will set long-term targets such as zero emission

with the asset size of over 100 trillion yen, decided tomobility and a roadmap, and execute them. Sekisuisell all of its stocks of the 122 companies which

House aims to make 80% of the new houses built inengaged 30% or more of their business in coal mining

2020 ZEH (Net Zero Energy House).

and coal-fired power (which was about 8 billion US

Efforts in “Renewable Energy 100%" (RE100) also

dollars), and it started implementing this on January 1,

proceeds. The BMW Group aims to cover 100% of its

2016. Divestment is often seen as a social movement

energy in the whole business with self-generated powerprotesting against investors who disregard global

and locally procured renewable energy. GM is aiming

warmingfor 100% renewable energy in 2050. Google will triple

beginning to make investment decisions taking into

procurement of renewable energy by 2025, aiming for aconsideration

100% renewable energy use. Microsoft has alreadybusinesses. Among such global changes, energy andrealized 100% renewable energy since 2014. Philips,

global warming policies towards decarbonization are

Nike, Nestle, Wal-Mart, and Starbucks also follow these

becoming

initiatives. An increasing number of local governments

companies in enhancing their corporate values over theand municipalities are aiming for 100% renewable

long term.

issues,thebutinstitutional

investment

increasingly

investors

recoverynecessary

for

risk

are
of

Japanese

energy, such as Fukushima Prefecture, Vancouver,
Canada, Malmö of Sweden, etc.
Requests for information disclosure on fossil

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wakugumi - Pari kyotei no goui to pari go no sekai

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investment risk which would become a “stranded

ondanka ni kansuru kokusai joyaku no kokunai jisshi151

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-(Domestic

implementationofinternational

6) Carbon Tracker and Graham Research Institute, LSE,

conventions on global warming). Ronkyu Jurist (The

Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital andDiscussion Jurist). The Fall 2013 issue. 2013.

stranded assets, 2013, Carbon Tracker and Graham

pp.11-19.

Research Institute, LSE.

5) Yukari Takamura. Pari kyotei no souki hakko wa7) International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA),

nani o imisuru ka - saiene o jiku ni datsutanso shakai

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014, 2015,

ni mukau sekai (What does the early entry into the

IRENA.

Paris Agreement mean? The world heading towards a8) National Audit Office, Nuclear Power in the UK,

decarbonized society with renewable energy as its

Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General,axis). Sekai (World). 2016 November, No. 888. 2016.

2016.

pp.204-210.

152

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

2. Rethinking the meaning of sustainability
Seiji Ikkatai
1. Relationship between environment and humanbeing abandoned in the atmosphere, so to speak, to thesocietyextent that it cannot be fully absorbed in the atmosphere

Figure B-13 was prepared, with a slight addition byor the ocean, and it stays. However, it does not mean

me, based on the general schematic diagram of thethat environmental problems will not happen if we only

relationship between environment and human society,usewhich is frequently used in textbooks of environmental

resources, if they are consumed excessively to theeconomics and others. One of the points of this table

extent that they cannot be renewed, and if the stock

can be seen where non-renewable resources anditself becomes unmaintainable, it will still be a big

renewable resources come in at "human society's

environmental problem. Problems such as species

operation = economy" in the center. Renewable

extinction and decrease in biodiversity caused byresources such as animals and plants have been

overhunting

acquired and used by humans from the natural world

environmental problems of this sort.

renewableofresources.

wild

Even

animalswithandrenewableplantsaresince the birth of human beings, and there formed aFrequently, voices can be heard saying that modern

cycle of circulation in which they were used andenvironmental problems are complicated phenomena

disposed of before they became, namely, raw materials

that occur while intertwined with many matters

to make its renewable resources again. On the otherincluding the economy, and that it is not easy to makehand, in modern times many materials that are

an investigation into its cause and solution. Of course,

extremely useful in terms of energy and resources, suchin a sense the point is correct, but on the other hand, as

as oil and coal, are widely used, but these arelong as we understand environmental problems

non-renewable resources, and they did not exist within

according to a schematic diagram such as the one above,the circle of conventional ecosystems.

environmental problems arise when the waste generated
by human activity exceeds the limit that is acceptableby the natural environment, and when we use renewable
resources beyond that limit when they were supposed to
be used within the range in which originally they could
have been reproduced. It is a very simple and clear
phenomenon, and we need to remember that again.
2. International efforts on sustainable development
With regard to this environmental problem, theconcept of "sustainable development" was establishedsince the United Nations Conference on Environment

Figure B-13

Relationship between environment andand Development in 1992, also known as the Rio

human society concerning environmental problems

Summit. This is a concept proposed by the Brundtland
Commission

in

1987,

which

says,

"Sustainable

Because of this, from the use of these resources todevelopment refers to such development that meets thetheir disposal, the waste that nature cannot circulate anddesires of the current generation in a way that will not

purify has come to stay in the environment. This is the

reduce the ability of future generations to meet theirenvironmental problem. A typical example of this is thedesires.

problem of global warming, which is caused when mass

It became a concept that filled in the large gap

consumption of fossil fuels results in carbon dioxide

between153

developed

countries

whichemphasizedB: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

environmental conservation and developing countries

which is positioned as the policy of each ministry,

which wanted economic growth at the time, and it

which is a big problem.

played a major role in avoiding forcing a choice

Meanwhile, in 2002, Germany formulated a

between the two alternative arguments of development

national-levelsustainable

development

strategy,or environmental conservation and in promoting more

“Germany’s Prospects - Our Strategy on Sustainable

constructive discussions. However, on the other hand,

Development."

this concept is somewhat abstract, and there is the
aspect that it did not become a direct solution to the

3. Concept of sustainability

problem of "how much environmental care should be

Today, when we look at national and governmental

taken," confronted by the reality. By the way, there are

documents, or environment-related documents ofmany

private enterprises, there are many wordings such as

otherdefinitions

anddiscussions

about"sustainable development," and the definition by the"sustainable development" or "sustainable society."

Brundtland Commission is not necessarily the only one.

However, although the definition of the Brundtland

At the Rio Summit, Agenda 21 was agreed upon, aCommission above was famous for this concept of

document that should be regarded as guidelines for the“sustainability," there was a side to it in that it was notwhole humanity concerning sustainable development

necessarily clear what it specifically signified.

towards the 21st century. And it was required for each

Under such circumstances, in 2015 the United

country to formulate a sustainable development strategy

Nations agreed upon the goals for sustainable

for its own and to create a national organization to carrydevelopment (Figure B-14).

it out. In response to this, each country has defined its

This is aimed at improving not only the environment

own development strategy.

but also various problems of the modern society such as

Incidentally, initially in Japan, a government

poverty over economy and society as a whole, health,

document with exactly the same structure as Agenda 21,

human rights, inequality and peace, and the idea is that

titled "Japan version Agenda 21" was created andsustainable development is realized only when these aresubmitted to the United Nations in December 1993.

realized.

This was the earliest response at that time. After that, inThis is one consistent way of thinking in its own

Japan, the "Basic Environmental Plan" based on theright, and we can say that it is currently accepted by

Basic Environment Law has come to be prepared as amany people including those in developed andCabinet decision document, and now this plan isdeveloping countries. However, speaking from thereported to the United Nations as Japan’s sustainable

environmental point of view, the problem of global

development strategy. However, although this plan is a

warming is one of the 17 goals, which does not

document that represents the entire government, it isnecessarily occupy the central position in sustainability.

created mainly by the Ministry of the Environment on
the basis of the opinion of the Central Environment
Council, and except mainly regarding preservation of
the environment, it has not become a high-level plan

154

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

Figure B-14

Goals for sustainable development(Source) United Nations Information CenterIn environmental economics, there are roughly two

could enjoy the massive amount of materials andways of thinking about the sustainability. They areenergy that previously could only be enjoyed by some“strong sustainability" and "weak sustainability." Thepowerful and wealthy people. In that sense, as a result

idea of strong sustainability is that human economicof removal from the constraints of natural capital, thegrowth has "the optimal scale,” and since natural capital

human civilization has made a great leap, and this has

is the ultimate source of human welfare, it is impossible

also become a driving force for new economic growth

to grow beyond the constraints of natural capital suchin the history of humanity for the past several hundreds

as the forests and the ocean. On the other hand, weakof years.

sustainability is a way of thinking that natural capital is

However, on the other hand, the forest area on Earth

one of the determinants of human welfare and it can be

has drastically decreased, and biodiversity has been

replaced with other artificial capital, etc. It can be said

greatly impaired, as seen in the extinction of wild

that, in a sense, the difference in these ways of thinking

animals and plants. A further problem is that the quality

poses a very big problem to humankind. Originally, theof the atmosphere, which can be regarded as thehumankind relied on the natural capital on Earth,essence of the global environment, is changing due toutilized it, and developed civilizations while supported

the increase in carbon dioxide, and similar changes areby the foundation for maintaining life. In the process,occurring in the oceans also.

resources such as petroleum and coal that until then had

In modern times, the proportion of people living in

not been used in the circulation of the Earth's ecology

cities is increasing even further, and there is a situation

came to be used, and due to the development of science

where comfortable city life can be enjoyed despite theand technology, many energies such as new materials

absence of abundant natural capital in the immediateand nuclear energy came to be used. As a result, this has

vicinity. There is a situation there, in which it hascreated a situation in which the daily lives can be

become more difficult to be experientially conscious ofmanaged without relying solely on natural capital.

the importance of the natural capital as a basis forThis created a social situation in which many people

supporting life, the role which the natural capital has

155

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

played since the ancient times. This is illustrated by anthat natural capital exists as the most important

episode that became a hot topic in recent years, when afoundation that supports that happiness, and that this isconsumer requested that only flower be used on the

secured. From this standpoint, Daly advocated thefront cover of children's study book because thefollowing three principles.

pictures of insects were gross, and it was complied with

(1) Resources should be used within the range inby the manufacturer of the study book.

which they can be renewed, (2) unrenewable energy
should be used within the range in which it can be

Although I stated that the discovery of fossil fuels

substituted with by renewable resources, and (3) waste

and the Industrial Revolution liberated human beingsand noxious substances should be discharged in thefrom the constraints of the natural capital, but while we

range in which they can be accepted and purified bycan say that it appeared on the outside to be the start ofnature.

the leap of humankind, it is by no means a coincidence

These are principles which consider the importancethat it led to the problem of modern climate change.

of natural capital focusing on the point of renewable

In other words, we can say that, at a time whenresources. On the other hand, the concept of weakhumanity relied on natural capital, natural capital was

sustainability mentioned earlier is the idea that natural

the foundation of sustainability of the human survival,

capital is one of the determinants of human welfare andand although human beings had no means to take a leapthat it can be replaced by other artificial capital, etc.

from there, sustainability was guaranteed instead within

However, humankind, who thought that a newthat great constraint. On the contrary, human beings,

nonrenewable resource called coal could substitute

who gained the means to take steps from there owing to

renewable resources like firewood, currently faces

the Industrial Revolution, the scientific revolution, andclimate change problems, and humankind, who thought

the development of the market system since the 18ththat it exceeded the constraint natural capital withcentury, lost the guarantee of sustainability by thepower generation at nuclear power plants, faces thenatural capital, and humanity has ended up in the

difficulty of controlling their danger, including theirsituation in which they themselves have to guarantee

accidents and waste disposal cost.

their own sustainability, which can be considered as thecurrent situation.
That the difference between the concepts of strong
sustainability and weak sustainability poses a very big
problem humankind more so than the sounds of thewords “strong” and “weak” do is as mentioned above.
4. Herman Daly’s three principles
Viewed from the context of the above analysis, theidea by Herman Daly is in the position of "strong
sustainability."
Herman Daly is an American economist and is
known for the "Three Principles of Sustainable
Development by Herman Daly," proposed in the 1970s.
As shown in Figure B-15, Daly's idea never claims that
only the environment is important for humans. Instead,
it is the idea that happiness that is the ultimate goal ofpeople exists above the social capital and human

Figure B-15

resources supported by the artificial capital and humancapital. However, the position is based on the premise

156

Herman Daly’s PyramidChapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

In that sense, we can say that the idea of strong

constraints of natural capital, technologies mustsustainability is in a position to ring a strong alarm bellcontinue to move forward in the direction of

to the idea that humankind can easily substitute natural

maintaining natural capital as a stock, and thinking

capital with other artificial capital.

about how to effectively utilize the grace of renewable

Even

in

today’sscientificandtechnologicalresources and others without destroying natural capital.

development, we are not in a situation where it can besaid that human beings have elucidated all themechanisms of nature that have supported the life on

References

Earth so far. Taking that humbly, we should dare tothink about future sustainability based on "strong

1) Kazuki Kagohashi. Critical shizen shihon to jizoku

sustainability."

kanousei (Critical Natural Capital and Sustainability).

Of course, this does not mean that we should go backMaterial at Symposium Commemorating Professor
Kazuhiro Ueda’s Retirement. March 8, 2017.

to the way of living like in the Edo period without using
any new technologies that we had never had before.

2) Seiji Ikkatai. Shin no green economy ni mukete

Solar power generation, large wind power generation,(Toward a True Green Economy). Environmental

etc. could not have been realized without modern

Information Science. Center for Environmental

technology development. The point is, given the

Information Science. 2013.

157

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

3. Sustainable cities and transport
Hirokazu Kato
1. Transport system prescribe the spatial structure

rather than the national and local governments. In thisof cities and national landway, the urban structure was formed by development of

For people, transport is often referred as the important

railways and tramways. However, the presence of theelement of living next to clothing, food, and house.

roads remained weak because people could not possess

Since human activities are carried out in the spatial

a car by low income, and the road condition was not

spread, the change in transport activities depending on

enough good for driving.

the spatial position of each activity and the mutual

However, since the 1960's, development progressed

positional relationship. That also changes resource andrapidlyenergyload.

development was established. Also, car ownership

Therefore, in considering the sustainability of humanincreased due to rising income. Many of thesociety, it is important to examine the spatial structures

automobile-related taxes were positioned as taxes forof cities, areas, and national land. Also, careful attention

road-related purposes, and more ownership and use ofmust be paid to the fact that the infrastructure andcars led to more tax revenue, furthering the roadbuildings constituting them have a long life, and it takes

development which also in return encouraged thea long time to change or update them. This is because,

diffusion of automobiles. Metropolitan areas such asif we forget the consideration for sustainability when

Tokyo and Osaka had a very convenient for public

wetransport and dense urban structure.

consumption,

promotespatialandenvironmental

structureformation,

human

becauseafinancialsystemforroad

The convenience

activities in the future will be greatly constrained, and itof automobiles in these areas did not increase.

will take time to get out of there.

Meanwhile, in other areas, automobiles are very

In Japan, as a result of the long-term spatialconvenient. The urban structure also changed fromformation, its spatial structure and transport system

point- and line-based expansion centered on public

have largely been divided into two types. One is atransport, to area-based expansion accompanied byhigh-density urban area where public transport has

automobile use, with the automobile-dependent lifestyledeveloped, and the other is a low-density areaof residents penetrating further. Once this happens,dependent on automobiles. From the early Meiji era toeven if public transport is improved, there are few

the rapid growth period after the World War II, theswitchovers from automobiles to public transport, and it

leading role in land transport in Japan was played byis also difficult to change the urban structure. In otherrailways and tramways. This is due to the fact that, inwords, motorization is an irreversible phenomenon. The

the Edo period, the shogunate forbade the use of cars

time before its progress, or to put it differently, whether(i.e. carriages and large hand-drawn carts) and adopted

or not to create an urban area with high density andthe policy of not paving roads and streets, and thehigh convenience of public transport before angovernment

railway

economic growth period happens, will change thedevelopment after the Meiji Restoration. For thissubsequent urban structure greatly. East Asia andreason, business models that acquired undeveloped

Southeast Asia chasing Japan. They are alreadyareas

advancing their motorization considerably. South Asia

topreferentiallyconducturban

advanced

districtdevelopment,

constructed the tracks and sold the land lots, and further

and Africa will also advance motorization probably.

developed stores and leisure activity facilities along theMotorization has become a driving force forrailroad tracks became active mainly in metropolitan

economic growth by increasing the available land andareas, and urban areas dependent on railways andrevitalizing exchange and trade. On the other hand, it

tramways, namely Transit Oriented Development

consumes a large amount of fossil fuel and discharges a(TOD), spread with the power of the private sector

large amount of carbon dioxide. It causes damage to158

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

people in the forms of traffic accidents and pollution,

declining.

and destroys the ecosystem by road construction and

Unlike the elderly in the present, the elderly in theland development. People can now go anywhere andfuture is expected to have a high percentage of driver's

live, which means that the load on the global

license holders. It is because they benefited fromenvironment has increased. Appropriate control ofmotorization from the young age, and lifestyles thatmotorization is important to form a sustainable society.

depend on the automobiles do not change easily evenwhen they get older. Driver's license holders have large

2. ICT and dematerialization will reduce transport

trip generation intensity. Therefore, from the viewpoint

activities

of society as a whole, it seems that even if the trip

However, now the change comparable to themotorizationissweeping

theworld.

It

purpose changes, trip generation intensity or the trip

isdistance do not decrease so much. On the other hand,"meaninglessness of spatial separation" due to thetoday's young people have been in an environment

diffusion of ICT.

where they can use the Internet from their birth, andThere is a theory which says that the time that people

they can receive various services without going out, on

spend a day on transport activities have not changed

top of the economic difficulty of car ownership and its

much for a long time. In other words, it has become

bad cost-effectiveness, so that is why it can be

possible to go farther and farther thanks to theconsidered that they move less often and travel lessdevelopment of transport systems, and although the

distance.

distance traveled has increased, it has not reached a

In this way, as the content of the transport activities

point where the time traveled has increased. Similarly,change, it is conceivable that the use of ICT instead ofit has often been said that the trip generation intensity istransport activities will increase mainly among young

relatively stable, which is about 3 times per person perpeople. In particular, the impact is great in terms of

day and about 1000 times per person per year.

procurement

However, it is also known that there is a difference

commercial districts accumulated mainly at stations anddepending on a person’s attribute, and in Japan thebus terminals because people traveled on foot or on

generation intensity and the time for transport activity

public transport. However, as consumers directly

are smaller for the elderly than the working age

accessed large stores in the suburbs due to motorization,

population, and for females than men.

it was as if traditional wholesale changed to retail. Theofgoods.

Prior

tomotorization,

There are signs that characteristics of such transporttransport of individual shoppers replaced the purchaseactivities are likely to change dramatically. In theby retailers. On the contrary, convenience stores

results of the National Urban Transport Characteristic

developed by increasing the efficiency of conveying

Survey (preliminary report version) released by thevarious types in small quantities through increasing the

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, transport and Tourism

number of stores. This flow has declined shopping

as of the end of 2016, it was found that the number of

districts in the central urban areas.

days and times that a person goes out was the lowest

However, from now on, ICT will advance service

since the survey began in 1987. However, this isinnovation that makes traveling unnecessary. Many ofcontributed not only by the progress of the aging

the distribution industry will shift their weight to virtualsociety, but also by the fact that young people go out

stores on the Internet, and actual stores in the suburbs

less often. According to this time’s result, people inwill become warehouses and showrooms. In addition,

their 20s go out about 10% less often than those in theirsuch systems will be more common in which the use of

70s. Young people are no longer going out except for

ICT will increase the sense of reality and makeindispensable movements like commuting to work andtravelling unnecessary in areas like work, conferences

school. This trend is noticeable in metropolitan areas.

and meetings, and education. In the past, many opinions

Likewise, in the metropolitan areas, the youngwere "ICT will increase opportunities for exchange, so

generations’ driver's license holding rate is also

it will also revitalize more actual movement." However,159

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

rather it is probable that the number of times and the

population will also exceed that of Japan. Japan's future

duration of travel by people which were said to be

response will be of great help to those countries.

stable may decrease due to the diffusion of ICT. Also,

The Japanese government set "compact + network"

this may be particularly conspicuous in rural areas

as a major policy in the "Grand Design of the national

where convenience of transport is low.

land 2050" announced in 2014. In order to cope with

However, though the passenger transport may

the population decline, super-aging society, anddecrease, the freight transport may rather increase, somatured economy, it is indispensable to thin out

the transport network does not become totally

infrastructure and buildings, and to turn "urban areas"

meaningless. At the same time, logistics and supply

that have "spread" into a state of “agglomeration.” This

chains will be considered more important as factors

is, of course, impossible without being free fromdetermining the urban structure. On the other hand, theexcessive motorization. Promoting realization of thatamount of freight transport will be reduced if

are the two pillars of strict regulation of land use andsocioeconomic "dematerialization" progresses. If theformation of a transport network centered on publicnecessity of transport activities decreases as a whole,transport. However, this is like going backwards thethe perspective of living environment and safety in a

way Japan has advanced over the past 60 years, and it

disaster will likely be dominant.

does not seem to go so easy. If you designate an area towithdraw from, the land will lose its value. It will be

3. Urban structure must change from "diffusion" toresisted by the landowners. Then, even if the"agglomeration"

government tries to buy the land for its previous price,

After the World War II, the population of Japanit will have no reserved capacity to pay for it. Also,

sharply increased, and in 2005, it became twice as large

since it is not practical to forcibly withdraw allas that of 1930. However, with this as the peak, thehouseholds at a certain time, it will have to happen

population started to decline, and it is projected to be

gradually. However, because households which arehalved in 2080. Meaning it doubled in 75 years, anddifficult to relocate, such as those of the elderly, arereturns to the former state in 75 years. However, sincethought to be mainly left out, until the withdrawal isthe area used by one person for living, labor, etc., iscomplete,increasing, this does not mean that the required urban

continued will be inefficient, and infrastructure mustarea will be halved. Then, while the proportion of thealso continue to be maintained.

administrative

services

that

must

be

elderly was 5% in 1930, it was 20% in 2005 and will be

For this reason, it will be extremely important for

42% in 2080. Infrastructure and buildings which

promotion of withdrawal that the compact cities, which

supported urban areas that spread faster than population

are to be the destination of agglomeration, will be

growth are deteriorating, but on the other hand, theupdated as districts that are attractive as well as cost-economic power to renew them is declining, and large

and resource-effective, and thereby improving theurban areas will not be necessary in the first place. In

relative land prices (i.e., added value) of the district.

the hilly and mountainous areas of Japan, theThere, it will be necessary to be in genuine so that the

population is drastically decreasing, and the number ofmaintenance cost of urban areas and consumption of

marginal settlements is also increasing, where theresources and energy will be little in the life cycle, andresidents are mostly the elderly. Desolation of theso that the QOL of residents will be higher in every life

satoyama (village forest) and the fields are progressing,stage and generation. As previously stated, the situationand it is possible that the urban areas may be desolatedof transport activities had a large influence on thesewith a landscape of nothing but ruins, if people foldfactors in the past, but while the weight of passenger

their arms. In Asian developing countries which follow

transport will decrease, the weight of the surrounding

Japan, it is expected that the speed of their urban

environment and safety against disasters will increase

expansion is going to be faster than in Japan, and thein the future. In the future it will also be necessary torate of progress in the declining birthrate and aging

expect to adapt to climate change, and it will also be

160

Chapter 3 Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

important to modify urban areas so that they will betransport is mostly due to the necessity for otherresilient in dealing with disasters. Also, since transport

activities, so it is a derived demand, and there is little

activities are currently highly dependent on fossil fuels,

intrinsic demand for use of transport only because

their decrease is directly related to reduction of fossil

people want to use it itself." In reality, however, there

fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. In

are clearly those who think that actual movement isaddition, in order to promote conservation and storage

pleasant in itself. This is the case not only with theof energy within the region, it is also effective andintrinsic demand but also with the derived demand.

contributes to securing resilience at the time of disaster

Needless to say, if the virtual reality technology

to form a micro-grid, which can stably produce andadvances in the future, it will be possible to obtain aconsume energy locally without having to rely on

more realistic feeling, but I do not know if it will leadsystem power or fossil fuel supply, through utilizing

to an immersive feeling that will satisfy all five senses.

unused energy such as heat, increasing electricity

Either way, the demand of passenger transport isstorageandexpected to decrease steadily unless it becomes possible

demand-leveling by introducing demand response. In

to obtain charms that can only be experienced in realhighly dense cities, with many common spaces, private

life (added value) on the way or at the destination on acars will be driven out, slow mobility such as bylow-carbon and low-cost basis. Then, the bustle ofwalking will become main stream, and the life will be

people in central urban areas and sightseeing spots will

easy for the young and old, men and women, which will

disappear, and the emphasis on "place" also willcontribute to community formation. As a result, urban

disappear, which will diminish the point of discussing

structures with high sustainability will be realized fromthe urban structure from the perspective of securing

all of the economic, social, and environmental aspects.

QOL. In this way, competition between transport andcapacity

includingelectric

cars,

ICT, and real and virtual lives will become intense in
the future. Movements toward diffusing self-driving

4. How the passenger transport will survive?
Up to this point, I have discussed transport activities

cars and ridesharing that are expected to arrive in theas the “necessary evil" for logistics and communication.

future will be discussed in Chapter 5, Section 2. For the

In order to mitigate this necessary evil, human beings

time being, it is necessary for those who are engaged inhave developed transport facilities that enable them topassenger

move freely with as little effort and as few resources asdevelopment will continuously create and promotepossible and have continued their efforts to develop

methodologies to turn them into something attractive

transport networks. The diffusion of ICT will beand environmentally sustainable. When a person wants

recognized as one that will replace these efforts, i.e.,

to do something, either they will choose an autonomous

people will be able to perform various activities without

driving service that comes out of the Internet search, ortravelling physically. However, do people really regard

they will choose a service that does not requiretransport as a necessary evil?

travelling. Preferences in this respect will determine theAt the beginning of a transport planning andtransport

and

urban

and

future transport system and urban structure.

engineering textbook is written that "the demand for161

regional

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

162

Chapter 4 Anti-Globalism and Populism

1． The rise of populism that will threaten the sustainability of human survival
With the dismantling of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Cold War ended, and globalization
was rapidly promoted along with rapid advances in information and communication
technologies. Globalism which considered globalization favorable became universal, and it
was convinced that free trade would promote the well-being of all countries. However, thedecision by the U.K. to withdraw from the European Union in the referendum in June 2016,
and Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election in November of the same year
signaled the emergence of anti-globalism (anti-immigration and anti-free trade). The worldis now at the turning point of its tidal current.
2. U.S. administration change and the Paris Agreement
Although the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is pointed out withthe change of the administration of the United States, opinions are still divided within the
U.S. administration. The possibility of suspending and withdrawing from contributing tofunds for the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Green Climate Fund ishigh. However, the switchover from coal to gas and renewable energy will progress further
due to the structure of the its domestic energy costs, and the emission reduction in the
United States will continue. States, cities, and businesses support the Paris Agreement,
promoting measures and initiatives for decarbonization, and this also supports the emission
reduction.

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B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

1. The rise of populism that will threaten the sustainability of human survival
Takamitsu Sawa
ofdictatorship, also push forward the transition into theinformation and communication technologies andmarket economy with respect to the economy. At least

collapse of socialism

as far as economic outcomes are concerned, they have

1.

Globalization

promotedbyinnovation

This is a story from quite a long time ago, but it wasgone beyond most expectations, successfully balancing

about a quarter of a century ago at the end of 1991

socialism and market economy. In promoting thewhen the Soviet Union was dissolved and the collapse

market economy, democracy does not necessarily seemof socialism became decisive. The Cold War period thatto be a necessary condition. This is exemplified by thelasted nearly half a century was finally ended. In thepast cases in which the progress of socialist market

meantime, I have always advocated that advancement

economy, and the “development dictatorship” ofin information and communication technology (ICT)Singapore and other East Asian countries were effective

was remarkable, and that it was ICT that triggered thefor economic development of each of those countries.

collapse of socialism. The reason is as follows.
Between the Eastern and the Western Europe was an

2. Good and bad of free trade“invisible wall” called the “iron curtain.” Although the

Globalization progressed in every aspect of humaniron curtain was effective in hindering the traffic ofactivities, but the impact of the globalization of thepeople and goods, it could not hinder the traffic ofmarket economy was greater than anything, including

information using the medium of communication

its positive and negative aspects. You can buy and sellsatellites. The image information transmitted fromstocks and currencies in the global stock market andWestern countries burned the lives of people living inforeign exchange market by simply clicking the mouse

the Western countries enjoying their freedom, and theiron a computer. The total amount of foreign currency

economic affluence to the eyes of people living in the

trading (spot) per day released every three years by theEastern countries painfully. The innovation of ICTBank for International Settlements (BIS) was less thanwhich visualized the difference and the disparity

400 billion dollars in 2001, but it expanded to over 1

between the East and the West to such an extent is thetrillion dollars in 2007, and over 2 trillion dollars intrue cause of the collapse of socialism.

2013. The financial market has gone globalized to such

It was in November 1989 when the Berlin Wallan extent that the decline in housing prices in thecollapsed. The curtain of globalization was cut off at theUnited States shook the global financial markets and ittime of the collapse of the Soviet Union two years later,

led to the outbreak of the international financial crisis in

when

2008.

the

iron

curtaincollapsed

unexpectedly.

“Globalization,” which has now become an everyday

Manufacturers in developed countries moved theirword, began to be frequently used since the beginning

production bases to developing countries with lowof the 1990s, and it quickly became an essential key

wages, and devoted themselves to strengthening theirword in telling stories of the social conditions towards

price competitiveness. East Asian countries with low

the end of the 20th century.

wages and diligent labor force attracted Western andEach of the Eastern European countries broke up

Japanese manufacturing companies. Rising wages ofwith socialism on one level or another, promoting

workers in developing countries naturally increased

liberalization and democratization of politics andtheir purchasing power, and contributed to the market

economy, and completely removed the “wall” that

expansion of the products of manufacturing companies

hindered not only the movement of people and goods

in developed countries.

but also the exchange of information. China andIn 1993, the “Maastricht Treaty” came into effect,

Vietnam, which adhere to the socialism of one-party

and the European Union (EU) was established with

164

Chapter 4

Anti-Globalism and Populism

most of the Western European countries joining.

respect to people’s migration (or immigration), which

Eastern

into

Ricardo did not expect, and security of food andliberalized and democratized countries, joined the EU

Europeancountries,

which

turnedresources (i.e., the possibility that trade will be

one after another, and as of 2017 the number of its

disrupted by an outbreak of some conflict) can bemember-states is 28. In economic terms, the divisions

pointed out as a disadvantage of free trade.

between the countries within the region disappeared,
tariffs within the region were eliminated, and people’s

3. Liberalism and democracy threatened

migration became free.

To summarize the above, the period between 1991

From the perspective of economic efficiency, it isand 2016 was when globalization bloomed and bore its

certainly desirable to integrate the markets of 28

fruit. It was the British referendum, which approved thecountries. The North American Free Trade Agreement

withdrawal from the EU in June 2016, that first stopped(NAFTA) by the United States, Canada, and Mexico

the tidal current that lasted for a quarter of a century. A

also came into force in 1994, and most of the tariffs

large number of immigrants from the Eastern European

between the three countries were eliminated. The

countries flocked into Britain in accordance with theTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), in which JapanEU law, which set the freedom of immigration in theparticipated, was also on the verge of entry into force.

region. It caused a decline in wages, unemployment,

The theory of comparative advantage that Davidand deterioration of public safety, according to the

Ricardo advocated in his book On the Principles ofargument by the advocates of the withdrawal. In short,

Political Economy and Taxation (1817) has been

the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU pulled the trigger ofregarded as the logical basis of common sense thatthe rise of anti-globalism and populism.

“international free trade enhances welfare in all

In the U.S. presidential election in November 2016,

countries.” If we compare the productivity of the two

Donald Trump won. The position where Trump stands

countries of the U.K. and Portugal, Portugal surpasses

is called populism, but indeed the aim of Trump’s

the U.K. for both two goods, wine and woolen fabric,

economic policy is solely focused on creating jobs forbut if we compare the productivity of the two goods in

Americans. The inflow of illegal immigrants fromeach country, production of woolen fabrics in the U.K.

Mexico and other Central and South American

surpasses that of wine, and in Portugal production ofcountries deprives employment. U.S. and Japanesewine surpasses that of woolen fabric. In this case, we

automakers export cars made in Mexico with low

say that Portugal is absolutely superior in both wines

wages to the United States to deprive Americans ofand woolen fabrics, but the U.K. has a comparative

employment.

advantage in woolen fabrics, and Portugal has aemployment, Trump says that he will impose a high ratecomparative advantage in wine. If each countryof border tariff on imports from Mexico. Also to regain

specializes in what they have a comparative advantage

employment, he declared a withdrawal from TPP and

in and trade them, the welfare of both countries will

review of NAFTA immediately after inauguration as

increase together.

President. This is in stark contrast with former President

The theory that Ricardo advocated 200 years ago isBill Clinton’s statement, which said that NAFTA would

still alive now, and at least in principle, free trade hascreate jobs in the U.S., and even better, it would create

been endorsed. However, with Ricardo’s two-countries,

jobs with good salaries, when he signed the NAFTA

two-goods model, the following doubts cannot be

bill.

As

a

countermeasuretoregainwiped out. What would happen to workers working in

An era of globalism in which globalization was

British wine factories and workers in Portuguese

positively viewed lasted for the past quarter century.

woolen factories? Both kinds of labor should require

Everyone had anticipated that the tidal current ofskills. It is doubtful whether workers who used to work

globalization would continue in the future.

at a wine factory until yesterday could work at a woolen

Whether the year 2017 will be the historic turning

factory from today. In addition, consideration withpoint or not will be decided soon. If a far-right party

165

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

embracing anti-globalism and populism just as Trumpand income tax cuts for the rich. The third reason is andoes emerges in the Netherlands’ general election in

expectation for financial deregulation. The fourth

March, France’s presidential election in April, or

reason is an expectation for relaxation of environmental

Germany’s general election in September, the values

regulations. The fifth reason is an expectation to tradeand norms nurtured by modern Western Europe, namely

protectionism. These five “expectations” will raise

individualism, liberalism, and democracy, will be

expectations for an economic growth of the U.S. andtrampled. Economics that presupposes a free andimprovement of employment environments. Active

competitive market economy can also be a candle

finance brings about a rise in long-term interest rates

flickering in the wind. It is truly a horrifying story.

and inflation. Given this, the policy interest rate will beraised earlier by the FRB, and the gap of interest rates
between Japan and the United States will be expected to4. Age of new uncertainty
Every year, as early as on the New Year’s Day, thewiden, triggering dollar buying and yen selling (i.e.,

result of the annual questionnaire to prominent

yen depreciation and dollar appreciation). The fading

managers and economists on the New Year’s economic

light of goals aimed at by Bank of Japan’s monetaryprospect is posted on The Nikkei morning edition. For

easing of a new dimension will receive support

the four years since 2013, forecasts such as on theshooting by Trumponomics, the economic policy of

economic growth rate, stock price, exchange rate, etc.

Trump.

varied widely from person to person depending on how

It is difficult to deny that Mr. Trump’s anti-globalism

they evaluated the effectiveness of Abenomics.

is exclusively aimed at protecting the domestic

However, with regard to the forecast for 2017, as of the

manufacturing

end

were

globalization means that the inevitable “phenomenon”

completely unclear as to the political and economic

that was meant to occur, which was the disappearance

policies of the President-elect Trump, results of theof boundaries on Earth, including national borders,elections in European countries planned for 2017, andaccompanied by the collapse of the Soviet Union inwhetheradvocating

December 1991 (the collapse of socialism and the end

anti-globalism and populism would emerge, so theirof the Cold War), and the rapid progress of information

predictions were mostly the same. There were few

technology. In other words, the phenomenon of relative

remarkable differences among respondents.

“liberalization” of movement of people, goods, and

of

2016,

or

not

internationalafar-right

circumstances

party

industries.

As

already

stated,As soon as it was reported that Trump’s victory wasmoney beyond national borders is called globalization.

definite in the U.S. presidential election in November

The idea that this is desirable is globalism, and the idea

2016, Tokyo Stock Exchange recorded a major drop bythat it is not is anti-globalism. In the referendum on

more than 1,000 yen, but in the New York market

June 23, 2016, the votes supporting the British

which opened half a day later, the stock price recorded

withdrawal from the EU exceeded the opposition votes

an unexpectedly large hike, and in response to this, theby about 3%, but this was nothing but a manifestation

stock price in Tokyo quickly returned to its originalof anti-globalism of British workers against wage

level. After that, stock prices continued to be on an

sluggishness, a reflection of the supply and demand of

upward trend in both Japan and the United States, andthe labor market with jobs deprived of by immigrants

yen’s depreciation and dollar’s appreciation continued.

from Eastern European countries.

Why did the American financial market view Mr.
Trump’s victory favorably immediately after the

5. “Employment:” the treasure of the populist

election? The following reasons are possible.

tradition

The first reason is an expectation for extravagant

At the first press conference on January 11, 2017, thepublic investment to the aging domestic infrastructure

President-elect Trump said, “I am going to be President

such as airports, roads, bridges, and harbors. The

who will produce the largest number of employment insecond reason is an expectation for corporate tax cuts

the history of the United States,” and to stop the

166Chapter 4

Anti-Globalism and Populism

American companies’ production bases from moving

Because the cause of illegal immigration is due to theabroad, he restrained them by saying that he would

lack of employment opportunities in Mexico, forimpose a border tax of 35% on products manufactured

automobile manufacturers to transfer part of theirat plants relocated outside the country. He had warned

production bases to Mexico will be an equivalent ofon Twitter on January 5 saying, “I will apply a 35%

creating an “invisible wall” at the Mexican border.

border tax on Toyota, which is building a factory to

There is no doubt that illegal immigration from Mexico

make Corolla in Mexico, if they are going to sell

will increase further if the Trump administration takes

Corolla produced in Mexico in the US.” He also saidmeasures to virtually prohibit creating a car factory inthat he would impose a border tax on cars made in

Mexico by imposing a border tax.
Mr. Trump said at a news conference: “The U.S.

Mexico, even for American car manufacturers (GM,trade negotiations have failed;” “There are a trade

Ford, and Chrysler).
The

North

Agreement

deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars annually with

(NAFTA), which came into force on January 1, 1994, is

China, and trade imbalances with Japan and Mexico as

an agreement to liberalize the investment and tradewell.” The pretense is reminiscent of the Japan-U.S.

among Canada, the United States, and Mexico (and to

trade friction in the 1980s. Mr. Trump says that bilateralremove barriers such as tariffs). It is a rational choice as

negotiations are preferable to multilateral negotiationsaautomobile

like TPP. The Japan-U.S. trade friction at the end of theAmerican automobile

1980s seems likely to be reproduced, such as

manufacturers relocate their production bases toself-regulation of exports, local production, andMexico where labor wages are only one-sixth of that ofelimination of import barriers.

privateAmericancompany

manufacturers as

Free

that

well as

Trade

Japanesethe United States. At the same time, it benefits

To sum up, the economic policies, Trumponomics,

consumers who can buy inexpensive cars. Ford, whichthat President-elect Trump talked about at a press

was made a victim by Mr. Trump’s Tweet, quickly

conference boil down to the following two points. For

withdrew the plan to relocate its factory to Mexico. Mr.

one thing, increasing employment opportunities is the

Trump said at a press conference, “I want to thank Ford.

top priority of Trumponomics, so for that purpose he

I expect that the major automobile manufacturers such

will not hesitate to withdraw from NAFTA, not to

as GM will follow the move of Ford as well.”mention TPP. The fact that Amazon.com made its

An excuse of saying,“We are not cutting

intention as early as on the day after Mr. Trump’s press

employment in the United States just because we built a

conference, saying that it would hire 100,000 people orfactory in Mexico” does not apply. This is because, if

more in the next year and a half,” clearly shows that

Toyota exports passenger cars made in Mexico to thethere are not a few companies in the United States that

United States, sales of passenger cars domesticallyare afraid of Trump. Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon,

produced in the United States will surely decrease, andbeing also the owner of the Washington Post, which

employment in the United States will surely decrease.

was the forefront of opposition against Trump during

Toyota announced its intention to “invest a capital

the presidential election, he probably feared that Trump

expenditure of $10 billion in the United States over the

could take retaliatory measures against his corenext five years,” and is striving to extinguish the fire.

business of Amazon.

Rather, I think that the following indication may be an

The other is the recognition that for the American

appropriate counterargument. Mr. Trump says he will

economy, there is an urgent need to reduce the tradecreate a wall on the border with Mexico to block the

deficit of 4.5% against the Gross Domestic Product. In

influx of illegal immigrants. Employment opportunities

particular, he sees China, which accounts for 49% ofwill be produced in Mexico if Japanese and American

the total trade deficit, Japan 9%, and Mexico 8%, asautomakers build plants in Mexico to benefit fromproblematic. Whether he was conscious or not, he did

NAFTA. To that extent, the number of illegal

not dare to mention Germany, which accounts for 10%

immigrants from Mexico should decrease.

of the deficit. Reducing the trade deficit will also leads

167

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

to an increase in employment opportunities in theeasing, reform of medical insurance system, climate

Unitedchange countermeasures, etc., he could have met with aStates,

which

is

the

top

priorityof

Trumponomics.

barrage of questions by the reporters. Having effused
his own prejudiced theories on Twitter, he must have

6. President Trump, who says No! to former

avoided going too deep into economic issues as he did

President Obama

not want to shame himself at his first TV-broadcast

Regarding large income tax reduction of corporations

press conference.

and individuals, public infrastructure investment, theremovalof

medicalinsurancesystem

You cannot be too cautious, but if Mr. Trump isreformignorant of the ABC of macroeconomics, will

(Obamacare), easing of financial regulations, review of

Trumponomics, like Reaganomics (former President

climate change countermeasures, which President-electReagan’s economic policy), bring about a “twin deficit”

Trump had promised during his presidential election(fiscal and trade deficits)? There is much tendency tocampaign, he made no mention at all at the first press

point out the commonalities between Trumponomics

conference after election (January 12, 2017). An

and Reaganomics, and certainly both attempts atincrease of domestic employment opportunities isbalancing large tax cuts and fiscal expenditure (military

originally intended to meet the “expectation” of theexpenseswhite workers (originally supporters of the Democratic

development for Trumponomics).

Party) who turned to support Mr. Trump. At the samefor

However,

Reaganomics
thecrucialandinfrastructure

difference

betweentime, it is an extremely easy-to-understand target

Trumponomics and Reaganomics is that the former

without any room for doubt. In other words, theemphasizes trade protectionism. This means that, while

guarantee of employment and increase of employment

Reaganomics emphasized the suppression of inflation

opportunities is a policy goal which symbolizes

due to the appreciation of dollar, there is no hesitation

populism.

in Trumponomics in violating the fundamentals of the

The following reason seems plausible for Mr. Trump’s

liberal economic policy in order to protect domesticpress conference being narrowed down to guaranteeing

manufacturing

employment and increasing employment opportunities.

Reaganomics was underpinned by the “theory” ofConsidering the current state of the United States with

supply-side economics, which had earned a certain

the fiscal deficit of nearly 800 billion dollars annually,

reputation among American economists, even though it

it is inevitable that large tax cuts and large-scale public

was ridiculed as “Voodoo Economics.”

industries

with

a

bordertax.

works are incompatible. He must have dared to avoid

On the other hand, Trumponomics does not belong tomentioning financial issues to avoid questioning by

any of the existing schools of economics, nay, it is anreporters about this contradiction. Although Mr. Trumpeconomics (?) probably not supported by any

graduated from comes from the Real Estate Department

economist, unable to wear any theoretical armor. Thereatofshould be no mistake in thinking that the trends of thePennsylvania, surprisingly he may be unfamiliar with

global economy and the Japanese economy during 2017

macroeconomics. If he started to talk about financial

to 2020 will be disturbed by Trumponomics.

theWhartonSchoolof

the

University

168Chapter 4

Anti-Globalism and Populism

2. U.S. administration change and the Paris Agreement
Yukari Takamura
1. U.S. administration change and the Paris

with the advice and approval of the Senate during theAgreement

George H.W. Bush administration, nearly all countries

What will happen to the Paris Agreement with thein the international community have concluded it, and itchange from the Obama administration, which led themay have a diplomatic consequence to withdraw fromclimate change negotiations leading up to the adoption

the treaty that has become the legal foundation forof the Paris Agreement, to the Trump administration?

dealing with the climate change problem over the

The general principles (platform) indicated by thecourse of a quarter of a century including the times ofRepublican Party during the presidential election said,

the Republican administrations, it does not seem to be“Neither the Kyoto Protocol nor the Paris Agreement

an easy option politically.

are not subject to discussion,” and “The Agreement is

In an interview with the New York Times innot binding for the United States until it is submitted toNovember 2016, Mr. Trump said, “I have an open mind

the Senate and ratified.” In addition, the platform urged(not excluding any option)” about the Paris Agreement,

the immediate suspension of the U.S. contribution tosuggesting a possibility of taking a more flexible

the Framework Convention on Climate Change fund,measure than a withdrawal from the Agreement as

and referring to the Foreign Relations Authorization Act

previously suggested. Exxon CEO and a candidate forof 1994, it stated that contributions to the fund for thethe next Secretary of State, Mr. Tillerson, also made a

Framework Convention on Climate Change and theremark at a nomination hearing on January 11, 2017,

Green Climate Fund (GCF) were illegal.

that it was better to participate in a place to discuss

Regarding the Paris Agreement, no clear policy has

climate change issues than to leave it. Recent news has

been indicated by the Trump administration yet, andreported

there are concerns that it may withdraw from the Paris

administration over the diplomatic consequence ofAgreement. One of the possible scenarios is that while

clearly showing the position that denies the Paris

the

Paris

Agreement, which is withdrawal, and also that opinions

Agreement with an Executive Order without seeking

are split over whether or not to withdraw. In addition,

advice or approval from the Senate, the Trump

there have been reports that the U.S. coal industry,administration will issue a new Executive Order towhich is supposed to be a supporting body of the Trumpcancel this Executive Order. It is possible to issue suchadministration, hopes that the United States will not

an Executive Order, but it does not mean that the action

withdraw from the Paris Agreement, concerned about aby the United States regarding its conclusion of theformation of international rules without the United

Paris Agreement will be invalid internationally. Now

States, which could affect overseas markets.

Obama

administration

concluded

the

that

there

are

concerns

withinthethat the Paris Agreement is in effect, in order to

It is more realistic to stop and withdraw payments towithdraw, the United States will have to follow thecontributions to the Framework Convention on Climate

aforementioned procedure of the Paris Agreement, andChange and to the Green Climate Fund. This is because

a withdrawal is not possible for at least 4 years from its

the reason for that is also concerned with the politicalentry into effect.

issue of dealing with the U.N. agencies that recognize

Another possibility is to withdraw from the Paris

Palestine as a nation (Palestine ratified the Framework

Agreement by withdrawing from the Framework

Convention on Climate Change on December 18,

Convention on Climate Change, which is the parent2015).

treaty, under Paragraph 3 of Article 28. It is legallypossible,but

considering

that

the

The contribution by the United States accounts for

Frameworkover 21% of the core activity budget of the Framework

Convention on Climate Change is a treaty concluded

Convention on Climate Change for 2016 (9.4% for169

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Japan). Of the USD 10 billion pledged to be contributed(excluding

large-scalehydroelectric

power)

only

to the Green Climate Fund, the amount pledged by theaccounted for 2.2% of the total power generation in the

United States is USD 3 billion (about 30%) (about USD

United States in 2005, but it expanded to 7.4% (about

1.5 billion for Japan). There is a concern about the

13% if large hydroelectric power is included) in 2015.

impacts of the budgetary and funding constraints, while

If aggressive measures do not come out of the Trump

negotiations on the implementation regulations of theadministration, the emissions reduction in the United

Paris Agreement is becoming full scale aiming for theStates may be delayed, but the tendency of such

COP24 in 2018 and developing countries are also trying

emissions reduction seems unlikely to stop easily. The

to proceed with their efforts to achieve their targets. In

first reason is the structure of the domestic energy cost

the climate change negotiations, developing countries

in the United States. In the United States, while thehave requested expansion of financial support for many

average power generation cost using gas is 52 dollars

years, and if the suspension or withdrawal of funds by

per MWh, the average power generation cost using coal

the U.S. is conducted, the demands from developing

is 65 dollars per MWh. The Trump administration has

countries for support measures including the funding

also launched a policy to deregulate not only coal but

will become stronger, and the issue will be bigger thanalso gas, so the cost advantage of gas will likely notever in the negotiations. In fact, at the BASIC groupchange. The cost of onshore wind power is about 60

meeting held in April 2017 by the four countries ofdollars per MWh, which is cheaper than coal. Solar

Brazil, South Africa, China, and India, the problem ofpower is also cheaper than coal in most states in thelack of funds to support developing countries was one

United States, and cheaper than gas in half of all states,of the items on the agenda.

due to federal investment tax cuts and state subsidies.
Federal investment tax cuts are aimed at promoting

2. Impact on U.S. domestic measures and emissions

investment, revitalizing the economy, and increasing

reduction

employment

opportunities,

and

the

The Trump administration showed the policy of

Republican-dominant Congress decided it was to berelaxing regulations on coal very early, and we cannot

extended for another five years at the end of 2015. U.S.

expect a federal government’s positive measure like theemployment opportunities in the field of renewableclean power plan aimed at regulating carbon dioxide

energy increased by 6% compared to the level of theemissions from coal-fired power plants proposed underprevious year to reach 760,000 in 2015. According to

the Obama administration.

the economic model analysis conducted before theOn the other hand, the greenhouse gas emissions inextension of the investment tax reduction, it was

the United States (the amount absorbed by forest andestimated that 100,000 jobs would be lost in 2017 in theother sinks are not included in the account) hadcase of no extension, and with an extension, theincreased since 1990, but turned to a declining trend

employment opportunities in the solar power field fromwith the peak of around 2005. Greenhouse gas

2016 to 2022 would increase by 32% compared to theemissions in 2015 decreased by 1.1% compared to thecase without extension. Because of this, it is consideredlevel of 2014, and by 9.4% compared to the level ofthat the possibility that the administration advocating an

2005. Greenhouse gas emissions of energy origin also

increase of employment opportunities will abolish thisshowed a similar trend, decreasing at the pace of about

is small.

1.1% every year, and in 2015 the emissions decreased

The second reason is that a considerable number ofby 10.4% compared to the level of 2005. Emissions instates are proceeding with aggressive measures to2016 decreased by 3% compared to the level of 2015

reduce emission and introduce renewable energy(the economic growth rate was 1.6%). A reason for the

independently. Although the U.S. energy policy is led

decrease is that the shift from coal to shale gas

by each state, about 30 states will set a target for

progressed, and it is also due to the progress ofrenewable energy. In 2030, California will make 50%

introduction of renewable energy. Renewable energyof its total retail electricity renewable energy, New York170

Chapter 4

Anti-Globalism and Populism

State 50% of the total power generation, and Hawaii

providing stable energy supply to people in developing

50% of the total retail electricity.

countries, and the Paris Agreement has strong support

Even more interesting is the movement of businesses

from developing countries as an institutional basis

in the United States. Over 1,000 businesses andpromoting such energy switchover. Improvement of air

investors signed a letter requesting Trump to continue

pollution, job creation, industrial promotion, energy

and expand climate change and clean energy adoption

self-sufficiency and security, etc. also back the support

measures, saying that unless a low-carbon economyof the Agreement. As stated earlier, it is also a big

was built, the prosperity of the United States would be

difference that the initiatives of municipalities, cities,

threatened

and businesses besides the national are growing.

(Business

Backs

Low-Carbon

USAhttp://www.lowcarbonusa.org). Businesses lead theTheintroduction of renewable energy from the demandadministration

side’s point of view. Google, Microsoft, and Wal-Mart,

negotiations where the federal government plays theamong others, concluded purchase agreements ofleading role. It may be difficult to expect a leadershiprenewable energy, aiming to use renewable energy forthat

100% of the energy consumed by themselves, which

negotiation and agreement on the Paris Agreement andamounted to 2.3GW per year in 2015 alone. In the next

its early entry into force. At COP22, it was agreed thatnine years the amount is estimated to increase further

implementation rules of the Paris Agreement would beby 17.4GW.

agreed upon at the latest by COP24, to be held in 2018.

Federal measures may retreat, but the energy
switchover

drivenbythemarketgreatest

the

will

Obama

influenceof

thechangeappearintheinternational

administration demonstratedofinCreating rules is quite diverse, ranging from what

andinternational rules should be used to manage the target

state/municipalities will advance emission reductions insubmission and hike mechanism every five years, how

the United States. However, we cannot expect

to report on progress of countermeasures in eachacceleration of that speed, due to lack of policy.

country, what to examine, to what measures should betaken against countries that do not comply with theAgreement, etc. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, developing

3. The Paris Agreement from now on
Ratification of the Paris Agreement proceeds evencountries will submit targets and implement themafter the change of the U.S. administration became

internationally, so creation of implementation rules forclear. As of April 13, 2017, 142 countries, including

the Paris Agreement is a more difficult negotiation task

Japan, and the EU have ratified the Agreement, an

than that of the Kyoto Protocol.

equivalent of more than 80% of the world’s greenhouse

At COP22, movements were seen in which major

gas emissions. At COP22, each country also clearlycountries launched cooperative and collaborative

indicated their intentions to continue climate change

platforms with other countries in the fields that theymeasures under the Paris Agreement.

were good at and took the initiatives. Some of them are“10-100-1000,”

The major difference from the time of the U.S.

China’s

South-South

cooperation

withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol is the difference inplatform that will launch 10 low-carbon model areas,

economic and social conditions surrounding the Paris

100 emissions reduction and adaptation projects, andAgreement. Due to technological development and

1,000

mass introduction, the switchover to renewable energy

locations in developing countries, and “BioFuture

proceeds globally as the cost of renewable energy drops

Platform” launched with the initiative of Brazil. Also

sharply. Expanding the introduction of renewable

for “International Solar Alliance,” aiming to mobilize

energy, which has become an economically rational

USD 1 trillion investment for large-scale introduction

alternative to other power sources, is a highlyof solar energy by the year 2030, launched at COP21

anticipated measure that not only serves as awith the initiatives of India and France, the framework

countermeasure for climate change but also responds todocument was agreed upon at COP22.

increasing energy demands of developing countries,

climate-change-related

training

businesses

It is vital that Japan not lose sight of its national171

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

interests without being influenced by the change ofadministration

of

the

UnitedStates.

ReferencesThe

decarbonization of the world aimed at by the Paris

1) Yukari Takamura. Beikoku fuzai demo susumu pari

Agreement will greatly expand the global market for

kyotei no wakugumi (Framework of the Paris

energy conservation and renewable energy. It is also a

Agreement to advance even in the absence of the

big business opportunity for Japanese companies which

United States). Gaiko (Diplomacy), Vol. 41, January

have strengths in energy saving and renewable energy

2017. 2017. pp.121-127.

technologies. According to the World Intellectual2) Yukari Takamura. Pari kyotei de nani ga kimattanoka

Property Organization (WIPO), among the top 20- pari kyotei no hyouka to impact (What was decided

companies in the world according to the number ofin the Paris Agreement - its evaluation and impacts).

patents owned by regarding renewable-energy-related

Hogaku Kyoshitsu (Law Classroom). The May 2016

technologies such as solar and wind powers, 12

issue (No. 428). 2016. pp.44-51.

Japanese companies such as Panasonic are in fact3) Green Climate Fund, Status of Pledges andranked in. According to the International Renewable

Contributions made to the Green Climate Fund,

Energy Agency (IRENA), Japan holds the largest

Status Date: 07 December 2016.

number of patents related to renewable energy in the4) IRENA, Renewable Energy and Jobs, Annual

world, surpassing the United States. It is necessary to

Review 2016, IRENA, 2016, p. 12.

think that it is exactly of Japan’s national interests to5) Sarah Helm, Quentin Tannock and Ilian Iliev,

agree on the implementation rules of the Paris

Renewable Energy Technology: Evolution and Policy

Agreement at an early stage, and to lead the world in

Implications: Evidence from Patent Literature,

anticipation of the full start of the Paris Agreement.

Global Challenges Report, WIPO, 2014.

172

Chapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

1. Economics of zero marginal cost society
Jeremy Rifkin, at the beginning of his book titled Zero Marginal Cost Society, says,“Capitalism is now creating a successor. It is a sharing economy that is deployed in the
Collaborative Commons. (Omitted) There, the majority of goods and services are free,profits disappear, ownership loses its meaning, and the market is useless.” In particular,
he states that renewable energy is expected to see an exponential development like thespread of the Internet, and that it will become a lush energy with little environmental
impact. Although Rifkin’s viewpoints and ideas may not always be right, they offer us
perspectives worth considering.
2. Car sharing and autonomous driving
The IT transformation will bring about a major change in the field of transport systems.
The keywords are autonomous driving and sharing. Providing mobility not based on
driving license and car ownership will bring benefits such as eliminating the weak pointin transport system, improving vehicle efficiency, and reducing traffic accidents to thesociety. On the other hand, ensuring security is an important issue, and mass transit
systems are still necessary. The redesign of transport networks and urban structure will
become an urgent matter.
3. What is minimalism for?
Minimalism is not just a lifestyle of having few things. It is an act of asking once again
what “happiness” is that has been believed up to now by taking distance from escalating
consumption once. Aren’t we targeting the wrong goal? Minimalism restarts “happiness”
at the principle of action of people.

173

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

1. Economics of zero marginal cost society
Seiji Ikkatai
For the description below, I would like to say inbeings are solving their own economic problems’advance that I owe much to Jeremy Rifkin’s Zeroalthough people suffer in the short term.” Then, “WhenMarginal Cost Society. Aside from the cited parts in thethese needs are fulfilled, the time when we will want totext, I am responsible for the entire passage as they are

devote more energies to non-economic purposes will

my opinions.

arrive sooner, or possibly much sooner, than we allthink.”
He says that the contradiction at the heart of the

1. From capitalist economy to sharing economy
Rifkin states at the beginning of his book:capitalist system that Keynes and his contemporary“Capitalism is now creating a successor. It is a sharing

Lange foresaw are in the following two phases of

economy that is deployed in the Collaborative

capitalism: First, it is in “the entrepreneurial dynamism

Commons. (Omitted) The Collaborative commons

peculiar to competitive market that pushes up

provide the possibility to sharply reduce the income

productivity and pushes down marginal cost” and “thatdisparity, democratize the global economy, create aeconomy is most efficient when consumers only pay

more sustainable society in a more ecologically friendly

marginal cost of products.”

way, already changing the way of our economic lives,”

Then, when it reaches such a situation, since it will

and then,” There, the majority of goods and services are

be difficult for a company to gain sufficient profits, “thefree, profits disappear, ownership loses its meaning, andmarket will try to prevent the aim at the most efficientthe market is useless.”

economy with marginal cost almost zero, heading

In a sense, this is a surprising claim. He says thattoward realization of nearly free goods and services.”many of the major problems of human society that have

He says that, in other words, the more capitalism

no prospect of being solved today, such as poverty

succeeds, the more it will be forced to leave the world’s

within richness is regarded as a problem, thefront stage.

elimination of inequality has been loudly pointed out,

He says that, shared type commons that come up

the problems of global companies becoming powerful

instead of this is not appearing suddenly, but it is in facttranscending national borders, climate change problems,

a place of institutionalized voluntary management

etc. have the possibility to improve in the future.

activities, which is the oldest in the world with a longer

Regarding that ground, Rifkin states as follows. In

history than either the capitalist market or theother words, this is not a point that has been made now

representative government. Those commons have been

for the first time, but it was something that has been

handed down to the present day, including official andclaimed by prominent economists and others fromunofficial organizations such as charity groups,

before.

religious organizations, arts and cultural groups,

For example, he says that Keynes, an economist in

consumer cooperatives, and consumer organizations,the 20th century, stated in a 1930 essay “Economic

for example.

Possibilities for Our Grandchildren” as follows; “WeOriginally, the commons were developed as anwill hear the words ‘technological unemployment’

economic model in which farmers united to form amany times in the coming years. This refers to theshared economy, maximizing utilization of its resources

unemployment that arises because the discovery ofand sharing them, in their farming in the feudal age.

means to conserve labor force surpasses the speed atToday, this has come to be understood as social

which new uses of labor force can be discovered.

commons, with the words social relationship capital.

(Omitted) Technological unemployment is a major

However, primarily it is not a financial value but social

benefit in the long term, because it means ‘humanvalue that such shared type commons create, so in that174

Chapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

sense it is quite different from the capitalist market.

unit for generating electricity from sunlight and wind is

Rifkin used the expression that, “While capitalism isalmost zero.”

based on the pursuit of private interests and uses

In addition, Rifkin continues to state as follows. “Ifmaterial benefits as its driving force, social commons is

this trend continues at the current pace, the electricity

motivated by the benefits of a collaborative type, andprice from solar power will fall to the same level as theuses its strong desires to be connected to other people tocurrent electricity retail price by 2020, and by 2030, it

share things as its driving force.”

will be half the price of the current coal-fired power
generation.”

The reason why the argument above cannot be called
absurd is because we can see many instances that

In fact, in Germany, with the EU’s liberalization of

support it, in fact due to the communication andelectricity, there are cases where the short-term market

information revolution such as the Internet. Today,

price of renewable energy is lower than the market

consumers do not simply exist to buy products that are

price of other power sources.

made from the market. For example, they are also

Now, these major changes in energy supply andproducers that publish videos that they made on the

demand have been caused by the creation of new

Internet (called prosumers). “Prosumers are not merely

technologies and systems. That is, it is a shift from a

newly producing and sharing their own information andso-called large-scale centralized power supply systementertainment, green energy, mass media, 3D printerto a small-scale distributed energy supply system. Until

products, and large open online courses at thenow, whether it is a power station that uses fossil fuels

Collaborative Commons with almost zero marginal cost.

such as coal or natural gas, or a nuclear power plant that

They share automobiles, housing, and even clothinguses nuclear fuel, they have been as large as possible tothrough social media sites, rental shops, redistribution

increase efficiency, and electricity generated there wasclubs, cooperatives, etc., at a low marginal cost or

sent

nearly zero marginal cost.”

transmission lines. Solar power generation, wind powertoindividual

consumers

throughpower

generation, etc., existed technologically for a relatively
2. From large-scale centralized energy system tolong time, but it was not popularized because it was not

small-scale distributed energy systemeconomically feasible mainly due to its cost.

Among the forecasts of major changes in theThen, social costs such as climate change due toeconomic system above, those related to energy willfossil fuels were recognized globally, and with thehave great implications for human sustainability.

introduction of feed-in-tariff system for renewable

Rifkin states in Chapter 5 of the same book,energy became full-scale since around the beginning of“Extreme Productivity, the Internet of Things, and Free

2000 and with the technological improvement andEnergy” as follows. “There are two surprisingdecline cost, the spread of renewable energy alsosimilarities between the fields of renewable energy andreached the general public.

IT and the Internet;” “Firstly, the energy harvesting
capabilityofrenewable

isthe energy problems were those of the national

exponentially increasing with solar power generation

government and major electric power companies andand wind power generation, and geothermal powerthat the ordinary citizens could not be involved in them,generation,andto the recognition that each area can create its own

hydroelectric power generation are also expected toenergy system according to their choice. For example, itfollow that.” “Secondly, although the initial cost ofalso leads to the idea of and campaign for energy

establishing communication and Internet infrastructureself-sufficient cities based on renewable energy, whichreached a considerable amount, marginal costs of

can already be seen in German cities, as well as to thecreating and circulating information are minimal.

movement to build a sustainable society in the region

Likewise, energy and the Internet also require a hugemainly based on the community and its residents.

biomass

energypower

technology

This has led to the change from the recognition thatgeneration,

initial cost for establishment, but the marginal cost per

However, will this kind of movement over renewable

175

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

energy really be realized, and is it completely

nurture the local community through the place called

problem-free from the viewpoint of sustainability?

public plaza.

One thing to keep in mind is that although there is a

In other words, the right to participate “jointly” is thehigh possibility that the shift from large-scale

basic ownership, whereas the private property, which iscentralized power generation centered on fossil fuelsin short, the right to enclose, to own, to lock out, isand nuclear power to small-scale distributed power

merely a limited deviation from the fundamentals. In

generation is likely to progress, many technical andmodern times, Rifkin says that it is the limited deviation

system-wise backups are indispensable, including thehas practically become the norm.

so-called smart grids. Especially, when a national

In addition, Rifkin introduces the book Governing

consensus on such a big direction is not established,

the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions forunlike in Japan, there is a fear that a serious political

Collective Actions, written by Elinor Ostrom, who

friction may occur between the existing industries

received the Nobel Prize for Economics for the first

involved in fossil fuels and nuclear power, and the newtime as a woman in 2009, as follows. “History showsindustries involved in renewable energy. In that sense asthat Commons is a very excellent governancewell, it is important to formulate a neat sustainableorganization and deserves reconsideration from thedevelopment strategy at the national level, and to

viewpoints of environmental, economic and social

implement it according to the plan over a certain

problems that humankind faces in a global world thatamount of time necessary.

gradually deepens the connection, and she made the fact

Either way, if we can make the energy baseclear to a point where there was no room left for
discussion.”

renewable, it is expected that the negative impact onof

In addition, he says that Ostrom’s research also

environmental and resource problems will be reduced

touched on the fact that mountainous pastures andto a considerable extent.

forests exceeding 12 million hectares were governed

humansustainability

from

the

viewpoint

under

the

commons-typearrangement

of

the

jurisdictions of thousands, and tens of thousands of

3. Rise of the Collaborative Commons
Now, what kind of world is the worlds of sharedvillages during the Tokugawa period in Japan.

economy and Collaborative Commons, according to

One of Ostrom’s claims was that the idea that human

Rifkin? Rifkin introduces the claim by American law

nature, according to many economists’ basic premise so

professor Carol Rose in Chapter 10 titled Commonsfar, is selfish, and that each person tries to maximize

Comedy.

self-determination rights, is by no means the universal“Besides the purely private property and the “public

truth of humankind, but that the human nature depends

property” managed by the government, there is aa far greater deal on collective sociability.

unique category of “essentially public property,” which

According to Rifkin, from a historical point of view,

is not completely managed either by the government or

in modern countries, the basic infrastructure andany individual. It is a property that the whole society

services in society have been managed by thecollectively “owns” and “manages,” the ownership ofgovernment. Movement since the Meiji Restoration inwhich is independent of any administrator called

Japan is no exception. However, dissatisfaction that its

government authorities, and in fact the ownership ismanagement is not necessarily efficiently performed,

superior to that of such administrators.”

deregulation and privatization began in various

In other words, it is a so-called customary right tocountries, following the opinion that it would be betternavigate freely in the waterway, walk along the country

to leave those items to the free market. However, theroad, or use public plazas, and so on. This used to be

result was not necessarily satisfactory.

the most fundamental thing in the past. For example, it

In other words, people became disillusioned by thewas an indispensable element for us to communicate

polarization

with other people, enjoy the time spent with others, andinhumane, bureaucratic government administration on

176

of

the

centralized,

andsometimes

Chapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

one hand, and the enormous, manipulative, andReferences

controlling private sectors that tried to take in every
aspect of life into their source of income and profit, and

1) Jeremy Rifkin. Economics of Zero Marginal Cost

people began to look for a model of governance that

Society. Translated by Hiroyuki Shibata. NHK

could

Publishing. 2015.

potentially

allow

more

democraticandcollaborative methods to construct their economic life.
And they rediscovered the Commons, Rifkin says.
Certainly, the Internet now seems to connect theworld, creating a new area of human activity. And it
seems that instead of merely being a place for
information exchange, the area is expanding thepossibility of Collaborative Commons as a new social
system based on new values substituting the traditional
market economy.
4. From ownership to access
Now, according to Rifkin, in the present age where
things and the Internet are rapidly being linked, there isa change occurring from ownership to access. Certainly,
the phenomenon is occurring where people stop owninga car and use only the service at a lower cost by car
sharing, etc. Also, it is becoming a reality to share
everything, changing from the form of owning
everything, including cars, buildings, and clothes, anduses them jointly. Of course, this is not to say thateverything will be shared eventually, but the traditional
capitalist market based on ownership will continue toshrink to a further limited niche market, Rifkin expects.
However, will such a change not cause a “rebound”
that is often mentioned in economics? As we have often
seen so far, will the cost-reduced part not evoke new
demand, including other things? Regarding this point,
Rifkin states as follows, denying that concern. “In asociety where anyone can obtain much of what theywant, nearly for free, (omitted) it is highly probable thata considerable part of the human temperament will beliberated from their impulse to relentlessly try to get
more things while they are being uneasy about whatmight happen tomorrow.”177

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

2. Car sharing and autonomous driving
Hirokazu Kato
1. Limits of transport system depending on humans(VICS)” in which real-time congestion status is

In the transport sector, innovation as never before may

displayed on the car navigation system is typical.

occur due to ICT’s popularization and progress of

Various

sharing economy. Its impact may be comparable to, or

technologies including this have been put to practicaleven greater than, innovation resulting from the factuse. The introduction of information technology inthat we have acquired power from fossil fuels, andpublic transport as well as road and expressway are alsoprivate car popularization, or motorization, in the past.

on the way. Besides the operation management system

Transport behavior is the accumulation of choices

that

ITS

supports(Intelligent

Transport

high-frequency

Systems)

operation

inthethat each person makes based on its experiences andmetropolitan areas and high-speed operation of theobtained information. However, as transport conditions

Shinkansen trains, with provision of information onchange from moment to moment, it is very difficult todelay and cancellation for users and improvement of themake optimal choices. It does not satisfy the conditiontransferof “complete information” which are necessary forconvenience has been improving compared to the past.

working the market principle. For example, if theTheseparking lots become insufficient overall in the center ofsurrounding transport can also be utilized to support

a city, unless the availability information of the parking

TDM.

searchwebsites

progresses

of

on

the

information

Internet,thetechnology

lots can be obtained, many people will be at a loss due

Various technologies have also been introduced to

to many car parking lots which are full, and uselessreduce accidents as a major transport problem.

transport will occur and congestion will be encouraged.

Improvement of safety performance of automobiles isOn the other hand, if information is issued, cars will

remarkable, and deadly traffic accidents have been on

rush

the declining trend recently.

intovacantparking

lots,

congestingthesurrounding roads and on top of that making the

However, there are limits to trying to optimize

parking lot full and as a result there will probably betransport behaviors and reduce accidents with thesecars which have to go to another parking lot after all.

technologies. It depends largely on the decision of

Therefore, if information is to be issued regarding

persons. Even if you support by providing informationtransport conditions to support personal choice for theand improving safety performance, person takes the

optimum transport behavior, it will be necessary tosteering wheel and push the pedal. As long as he/shethink how the person will change the choice, andrelies on their own selfish, sometimes misjudged

thereby how the transport conditions will change. The

choices, traffic jams and accidents will not go away.

challenges of “Transport Demand Management (TDM)”

Meanwhile, shortage of occupational drivers has

which attracted attention in the field of transport

become rapidly evident in Japan over the past several

engineering is based on this recognition, and combined

years. The main reason is the deterioration in treatment

with prediction technology of transport conditions, etc.,

due to deregulation of transport business in the early

it is intended to optimize the transport conditions by

2000s. Now, the lower occupancy rate of taxis due tochanging not only the route selection but also theinsufficient drivers, and reduction and abolition of bus

modes, the destination, and the selection of thelines are becoming more apparent. As the aging society

departure time.

progresses, more stringent procedures have been

After that, the methods and contents of information

introduced for retaining a driver’s license. However,transmitted to persons were enriched by utilizing thedespite the increasing importance of passenger transport

information technology which was advancing rapidly.

by taxis and buses, the country is in a situation where

The “Vehicle Information and Communication Systemsufficient supply cannot be made.

178

Chapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

about than autonomous driving, “ridesharing” hasreceived much attention. This is a private-car version of

2. Autonomous driving“Autonomous driving of cars” has become a“sharing economy,” and it is making cars available nottechnology of topic in recent years. We can say that it is

only for personal use but also for other persons’ use. If

a dream technology that can relieve people from theindividual travels can be combined into one, cost can betroublesomeness of driving, increase safety, and ease

reduced, and the transport volume, energy consumption

theand environmental load can be reduced.

restrictionsonpublictransport

supplybyoccupational drivers. It has been taken up by the press

Sharing of private cars (carpooling) was conceived as

many times, and watching it makes it seem that the daya measure for alleviating congestion, and concretewhen it will become common is not far away. It seems

promotion measures were taken in the United States

to take a considerable time to become available inand elsewhere, but since the methods for matching

general, although practical application is within sightpeople moving in the same direction at the same time

under limited circumstances. However, the world of IT

were limited, it did not become popular. This was

evolves rapidly, and the day may come earlier thansolved by launching a website that recruited andexpected when the digital data on roads around thematched supply and demand on the Internet, and on top

world are prepared at what feels like that speed, itsofautomatic update is systemized, the road conditions andapplications and browsing possible while moving.

the movement of the pedestrians and bicycles are also

However, it is probabilistically not easy to match

grasped in real time, and based on these data Artificial

people who have a purpose of moving with each other.

Intelligence (AI) will drive a car safely.

However, in response to the demand that has emerged,

thissmartphones

becamepopular,makingPrior to autonomous driving, the introduction of IoT

it is possible to also step forward for that transport,(Internet of Things) technology in automobiles, that is,even if there is no specific purpose for moving. In“moving Internet device” will progress. Together, if we

anticipation of it, smartphone applications enabled

further make power electric-based, automobiles will

online settlement and opened records of user evaluation

merely be a kind of home appliances. The question isto the public in order to guarantee the quality of drivers

being asked whether it is possible to quickly design,

was developed and popularized around the world.
“Uber”, the largest company in the field, expanded

form and occupy the picture of the automobile market
which seems to change largely.

into more than 70 countries and nearly 550 cities in theIf we are confined to the system built on the premiseworld in less than eight years since its establishment. Inof the existing technology, in the meantime, the basic

Japan, Uber also provides a taxi dispatch service insoftware of autonomous driving, the communication

Tokyo, and further began putting their hands on

protocol, and the operation rule will be decided, andtransport by white number vehicles (paid private

when it becomes possible to do so, there will be notransport under Article 79 of the Road Transport Act)

choice but to obey the market formed by the first-mover,by paid volunteers in depopulated areas. Uber’s

and we will have to accept not being able toapplication can be used as a reservation and allocation

demonstrate any initiative. This is the same road taken

system to car for general taxis (green number vehicles),by various products and services created by ICT

but its effectiveness will be increased by utilizing it for(Information and Communication Technology) in recent

ridesharing on private cars. This is because taxis are

years. As Japan has led the automobile industry, we

fixed both in supply quantity and fare due to regulation,

would like to aim to be the first-mover. To that end, it

but for private cars these can be variable, matching ofwill

supply and demand can be instantaneously enabled bybenecessarytoreviewvariousexisting

institutional frameworks.

the application, and a more flexible market can beformed. In the first place, due to the interval use ofprivate cars, expenses are cheaper, and the fares for

3. Ride-sharing
On the other hand, while this is less often talked

users are often cheaper than for taxis, and both private179

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

car owners and application providers (platformer) can

guaranteed, and the fare will also fluctuate greatly.

gain benefit. However, in this mechanism, there is no

On a side note, there is “carsharing,” similar to theguarantee whether supply that can meet the demandridesharing, and it is also spreading in Japan. This is awill appear even if the fare is variable (up to the market

mechanism that allows sharing a car and using it whenprinciple).

necessary, and a cost reduction effect can be expected.

On a side note, ridesharing originally refers to riding

In Japan, especially in rural areas, private car ownershipof one vehicle by people who share a similar place ofhas progressed from one car per household to one car

departure and destination (uberPOOL, notteco etc.,

per person, but the occupancy rate of private cars is low,

apply. In a broader sense, it also includes shared public

and there are data that it is less than 10% on the averagetransport). However, as mentioned above, ridesharing,on a time basis. Having said that, because the operation

which is frequently talked about currently, is not theis concentrated on commuting hours, etc., there is a

purpose of the driver’s own movement but is aimed atlimit to promoting the sharing, but it has become more

providing transport for people exclusively for obtaining

common in metropolitan areas in particular, where there

fare income, and in English it is generally called

are few uses of private cars.

ride-hailing (calling a ride).
According to the current law of Japan, the onerous

4. Form of Next Generation Mobility

transport business by white-numbered cars can only be

Theabove-mentioned

autonomous

driving,

operated where the service cannot be supplied byridesharing, and car sharing are very strong in affinity

green-numbered taxis or buses, or in cases they cannot

with each other and can draw a form of next generation

provide service to the target (such as elderly people ormobility by combining them. In private car ridesharing,

the handicapped) and when it is permitted by the

supply can be flexibly changed but securing a driver

council held by the municipality in which the relevant

remains to be a constraint. However, if autonomous

parties participate. All other cases are illegal. For thisdriving becomes common, we will not have to thinkreason, attempts have been made in areas where public

about it. When that happens, the green-numbered carstransport is absent, but in such areas, it is not easy toandsecure drivers because there is little transport volume inmeaningless. The taxis and the private car ridesharing

the first place. The majority of elderly people whowill also mean the same thing. If autonomous driving

cannot use private cars, who will be the main users, arehappens, as a private car owner, some people will want

not used to smartphones, either. Therefore, if it becomesto supply their cars to ridesharing while they are notfully legalized, it is expected to be rather popularized inusing them. Many people will stop owning a car andurban areas, and the groups of customers will overlap

begin switching to ridesharing in the first place. As awith those of taxis. The existing corporate taxi businessresult, the use of ridesharing by shared cars will becomeframeworks and wireless dispatch systems will be

the majority. Given this possibility, it is natural that auto

incapacitated, and standby business at stations andmanufacturers

business while driving through the road, etc., in whichridesharing application management companies fromthe range of selection is small, may become

now. This is because, even here, it will be important tocomparatively inferior. If they take reservation andsecure the first-movers, that is, a large number of

allocation to car from Uber, etc., they will need to bear

suppliers and consumers, as quickly as possible.

thesecond-classaredriver’s

willingtolicenseswillcollaborate

be

with

the burden of fee, and the initiative to acquire

For ridesharing, reservation (departure time andcustomers will also be deprived. The taxi and bus

destination, vehicle type, etc.) is mandatory, and theindustries in Japan are strongly opposed, arguing thatapplication management company obtains reservationtransport environment will be greatly impaired if theand traveling data. It should be noted that this isprivate car ridesharing is legalized, the existence of

personal information, but it can be used for various

businesses will be compromised just as it did in cities inanalyses. It is exactly the same as the use of search logs

other countries, the transport safety will not beby search websites. Peak pricing, which makes the180Chapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

charge more expensive on routes and times wherepremise of using renewable energy). Transport which iscongestion is expected, can also be anticipated. Private

easy to use for those with mobility constraints, so tocars will drive it just by registering the destination on

speak, can easily be provided, and there will be fewer

the car navigation system, and when you do not use it,

accidents.

you can have it used for ridesharing.

At the same time, the business models involved in

Now, sometimes we see the claim that public

public transport will also undergo major changes. As

transport will be unnecessary when the automobiles

stated in Section 3.3, although the progress of IT is

become autonomous driving. Certainly, the taxi will be

expected to reduce passenger transport, it is thought

united with the ridesharing, but the medium and largethat cargo transport will increase instead. By linking it

public transport systems with a capacity over a bus willwith the logistics system of a logistics company, we cancontinue to remain. Even if the ridesharing spreads, theexpect that the efficiency of cargo transport willtransport capacity of the private car size is too small to

improve, and the benefit of labor saving will also be

substitute medium and large public transport systems. It

great.

may transfer to a medium or large transport system as a

On the other hand, systems for realizing autonomousrecommendation at the time of vehicle reservation. We

driving and matching systems for sharing will be

can imagine that it will be possible to make amonopolized. In that case, there will be concerns about

reservation of a taxi, i.e., ridesharing, on a transfer

handling of personal information and security aspects.

search website. When this happens, routes andAlthough this can be said about all IoT technologies,

operation schedules may become variable by tailoring

we should pay attention to the possibility that social

buses and on-demand shared transport according to thedislocation caused by perpetration of a security hole

state of reservation. Hence, a land use and facility

will be immeasurable.

location planning will be very important. They can form

While the automotive industry and the IT industry

a spatial structure of cities and areas around the network

are making a tremendous progress towards thisof a transport system as railways, tramways and BRT

innovation, the passenger transport industry, which is(Bus Rapid Transit).

likely to collapse or change the business model becauseof this, has hardly been able to take measures at thepresent situation, and it is behind other industries with

5. Summary
I imagined a little about the future of “autonomous

regard to IT utilization. It is an urgent matter to actively

driving and ridesharing society.” A switchover isincorporate new technologies centering on IT into

expected from the situation where each person makes aoperation management and customer service, and tojudgment based on limited information and acts as

trigger a breakthrough in passenger transport services.

transport as it does in the present situation, causing

If this is neglected, more and more of other businesses

problems such as congestion, accidents, increase ofwill enter the industry, and they will likely be driven out

environmental load etc., to a form in which the cost isof business. Also, creating a transport network that has

made more efficient while the demand of each person isan appealing power where people will “still want to use

met by utilizing limited infrastructure and vehicles astransport” in society where various activities can bemuch as possible. In addition to improving transport

performed “without transport” is also still a big issue.

efficiency, we can also think of considerably reducing
the environmental impact by electrification (on the181B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

3. What is minimalism for?
Fumio Sasaki
1. Background of the birth of minimalism

become bloated. They did not understand well what the

The gist of minimalism is not to have fewer things. I

essence of art was. I think that the essence to be

think that it is about reconsidering the meaning ofreconsidered in terms of minimalism regarding thethings that have become too big, and thinking about the

aspect of life is “happiness.” “Happiness,” which

merit of “small” while only scale merits have been

everyone never ceases to seek. However, few things are

loudly promoted.

known about what happiness is, and most resources

The term minimalism was already born in the 1960s

have been devoted to money and goods which are onlyin the worlds of music, architecture, and art. In thepart of happiness. We work hard to buy something. And

sense that it is a lifestyle in which you only have things

it takes a huge amount of time to manage things weand others necessary for yourself, a lifestyle in whichbought. It costs money to heal the exhaustion from the

you live simply, it was born in the United States aroundlabor and housework. It costs money, so we have tothe time of Lehman Shock in the late 2000s, and inwork again. Everyone worked hard, believing thatJapan, it gradually came to be known after the Great“happiness” should be right there. Then we made a

East Japan Earthquake in 2011. At the same time, things

wealthy country. Compared to the level of 1960, real

became consolidated, as represented by smartphones,

GDP per capita in 2010 was quadrupled. However, “lifeand services for digitalizing made a progress. iPhonesatisfaction,” which is one of the indicators of

was first launched in 2007 (the launch of iPhone 4,

happiness, has remained unchanged for 50 years. Why

which popularized smartphones in full swing, was in

did money and things not make people happy?

2010). Facebook and twitter started their services inJapan in 2008. Cloud storage Dropbox will be launched

3. Why “money” and “things” did not bringits service in Japanese in 2011. The Japanese-language

happinesskindle store opened in 2012.

One of the answers is simple. It is because people get

We cannot hope for economic growth like we did

accustomed to money and things they have gained. I

before any longer, and it has become difficult to enjoy

would like to tell one story as an example. Suppose

consumption. Speaking for Japan, huge earthquakes

there is a tomato with a sugar content of 10. People who

occurred in various places in a short cycle, and it camefeel this is sweet are usually those who eat tomatoes

to be known that not only were things lost in vain but

with a sugar content of 5 or 8. For those who always eat

also could become a weapon in the event of a disaster.

tomatoes with a sugar content of 10, they are regular

On the other hand, with a smartphone, it became

tomatoes. For those who eat tomatoes with a sugar

sufficient for most purposes. A thick dictionary, a big

content of 12, they are rather sour tomatoes. The fact

camera, and a calculator have been replaced by a single

that the sugar content is 10 is just an indicator, and how

smartphone. Books, pictures, and music have also been

it feels depends on people. If everyone aims to eat

converted into data, so if you save it in a cloud storage,

tomatoes with a sugar content of 10, and if everyone

you do not have to have anything at hand. We can no

can now eat one, it will become a boring, commonplace

longer keep things like we used to, and we now have nothing. It is good to replace the number 10 of the sugarneed to do so. It may be natural to think that

content with anything, such as GDP or an annual

minimalism was born at such a time. Because

income of 10 million yen. Those that can turned into aeverything was ready.

number tend are reasonable and easy to understand, andare easily made a goal. People act seeking it, but what

2. Minimalism for rethinking “happiness”

they feel after they have actually acquired it is a sense

When minimalism as an art was born, “art” must have

of

182

extremeunreasonableness.

In

psychology,aChapter 5 Sharing Economy; Minimalism; Zero Marginal Cost Society

phenomenon such as this is called “hedonic treadmill.”

not stop. Gradually people began to have one TV in one

A treadmill shows how many kilometers you have runroom, and brothers no longer needed to fight for thein number. However, the person actually running

channel. Now we can do anything with a smartphone

remains at the same place.

per person. It was communication that was lost instead.

Then what do we have to do to feel happier? There is

Because enjoying the same entertainment together wasone

communication, and “lending and borrowing” itself wassuggestive

study.

Harvard

MedicalSchoolconducted the Harvard adult developmental study,communication.

which is called the longest research in history on

In the Edo period, neither the toilet nor the well was“happiness.” They tracked 724 men over 75 years byin each household, and they were shared. Of course,

various means such as obtaining medical record, blood

they took the bath at a public bathhouse, and they

tests, and family interviews. There were also various

flocked to the bathhouse like potatoes in a tub. Theresubjects such as Harvard students, and poor people inmust have been troublesome things. However, they

Boston, and occupations also varied, such as brickmust

craftsmen and doctors. What they learned from thiscommunication to learn about the society must havestudy was that the biggest factor in making people

blossomed. Communication, lost because individual

happy and healthy was “human relationships.” People

ownership

who had the happiest relationships with people at theconvenience excessively. Lending and borrowing of soy

age of 50 were most likely to say that their healthsauce with neighbors was communication. Now we do

condition was good when they were 80 years old. The

not know who lives next door. There are also attempts

rich human relationships protected people fromto regain lost communication. For example, 500 guest

memory disturbance, according to the study. Sometimes

houses in the whole country, which are still increasing,money is necessary for human relationships. However,is a case in point. While a guest house has a private

the most important thing is the time to listen to people’sroom for each individual, basically it is dormitory-style.

stories, cooperate with each other, and share joy.

And the kitchen, the shower room, and the living room

Uruguay’s former President, Mr. Jose Mujica, said,

are shared. There, travelers interact with each other“People think that they buy things with money, but they

beyond national boundaries, cook together, drink

buy them with the precious time they spend on work.”

alcohol together, etc., and it functions like a third place.

It can be when a person feels happy, eat, listen to music,

With the facilities set up in each room, suchtake a bath, watch their child’s sleeping face, or take acommunication will not be born.

nap, but there must be a time available for it.

Attempts to create new communities are also thriving.

havelearnedprogressed

to

be

and

politepeoplethere,

anddemandedPartly self-sufficient lifestyle and permaculture are
4. From individual ownership to sharing

being practiced based on relationships connected

I think that it is like humankind’s “measles” to enjoy

loosely by SNS, where people can freely enter or leave,

individual ownership and consumption of things. Just as

instead of previous, dubious communities which wereit was the case in the Bubble-era Japan, in countries

closed both in space and in human relationships.

wheresimilar“Saihate” of Kumamoto, “Shalom Hutte” of Azumino

phenomena are expected to continue to happen in theCity, Nagano Prefecture, “Itoshima Share House” infuture. Everyone admire it once, and they to try it. Like

Itoshima City, Fukuoka Prefecture, “Permaculture Dojo”“measles,” it is a disease that people suffer from at leastin Isumi City, Chiba Prefecture, Hakone’s “Hakone Ecoonce. Of course, Japan was also infected. Around 1960,

Village,” etc. Opening funds are procured through cloudTV was precious. If there was only one TV in the area,funding. The success rate is high, and such places arepeople would plead and go there to watch it. It was astill growing.

hassle. If each household had one, they would not haveNow, new communication is being born through theto bother going to watch it any longer, and it was

Internet for exchanging things. For example, there is aconvenient. The desire to own things individually will

service called “Jimoty.” Simply put, it is a matchingeconomic

growthisremarkable,

183

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

service for people living in the neighborhood. It is amuch more enriched than before.

service in which if there is something they do not need,

Now I have more time, I can choose home freely, andthey can give it away for free or an extremely low price,

I can do the work that I like. Speaking of what the mostprovided the receiver comes to take it. There is avaluable thing that I gained practicing minimalism is, I

cultural practice called “hand-me-down” in which

now think that it is relationships with friends in thebrothers and relatives hand down clothes of older ones

“minimalist”

community.

one after another, and this can now be done in Japan by“happiness”

ispeople who do not know each other. It is becoming

summarized easily, but rather than being economicallypossible to circulate goods without newly producing

rich and exchanging things for money or goods, itsthem. To my surprise, there are cases in which farmers

essence should be closer to the points I raised here.

use this “Jimoty” to give leftover vegetables to their

When people are “considerate of the environment,” orneighbors. The giver of vegetables will be free from“think about the future generations,” they do so because

guilt for letting them go bad, and the receiver gets freethey themselves feel that they are happier than if theyvegetables. I think money was born because it took too

behaved selfishly and gained short-term benefits. It ismuch time and effort to match people who had fish andbecause it would feel painful if they did not do so.

people who had vegetables, but now with the Internet,“Happiness” is the motive power to make people act,

even if you do not have fish, you can get surplus

and it is a purpose. Apparently, the destination we havevegetables. I disposed of unused items to move out last

believed in seems to have to be modified slightly.

is

The

complicatedconcept

of

what

and

cannotbemonth, and I also asked people on twitter, and delivered

On the other hand, I think that minimalism can exist,

them to those who needed them for free. If goods are

although it is stagnant, thanks to the still affluent

optimized by being handed over from those who do notcondition. Thanks to the past economic growth, weneed them to those who do without wasting them, sales

already have enough infrastructure in place. Thanks toof goods will appear to decrease. This is because what

the economic growth of emerging economies, it has

has been exchanged there is not money but the feelings

become possible to get anything at cheap prices. Theof thankfulness. Happiness has surely increased.

reason we do not have to have goods is because we now
have services that can convert music and books into
digital data, and also because the invention of

5. What I really gained from minimalism
I gained a lot of things from practicing minimalism.

smartphones now allows us to get most things done.

1) Because I reduced the long working hours to buy

However, the behavior of people who made theunnecessary goods and the time to manage them, I

economy the top priority all too lacked moderation.

can now take my time.

Minimalism is not about having little. It is an

2) Because I reduced goods and became fine living in aopportunity to rethink that balance once again. In that

small place, I now only have to pay a small rent,

sense, I think minimalism is like a “small gate.” It is notwhich used to be a large fixed cost.

something that you have to continue for the rest of your3) Because there are fewer expenses to be worried

life, but once you go through that gate, the weight on

about, I now have the freedom to do whatever work I

you will be lifted, and it will allow you to rethink thelike, even if I have a low income.

values that you have believed in. My book, Goodbye,4) I always feel comfortable in my room, and I can goThings: On Minimalist Living, which introduces

out any time. Through the small thing that is being

minimalism, is to be released in 20 countries, andable

minimalism is spreading in various countries. A lot of

to

clean

up

my

room,

the

sense

of

people are starting to pass through that “small gate.”

self-affirmation improved. When I go out, more often
I now seek nature such as the sea and the mountain.
5) The money I used to spend on goods in the past, I
now spend on traveling and spending time with myfriends. Then the relationship with others became

184Chapter 6 Is Economic Growth Everything?

1． Sustainability of capital baseIn the population declining society, the sustainability of society is threatened by thedeterioration of the four capital bases of human capital, artificial capital, natural capital, andsocial capital. The capital base is an existence with a mechanism that brings usability, and it
will not be lost by providing usability. In the future, there is a need to switch to stock-based
economic indicators, such as indicators to measure how much the needs of care for the capitalbase stock is satisfied and indicators concerning the capital base stock quantity properly
maintained and managed per capita population.
2． Economic growth and democracy
On June 8, 2015, a notification from the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science andTechnology that says, “We request undergraduate and graduate schools of humanities andsocial sciences to abolish the organization or shift to a field with more social demands” wassent to 86 national university presidents. It is nothing but the tradition of Japanese educational
administration to acquaint universities that it is their mission to train science and engineering
personnel who are the key players of economic growth and to regard the humanities andsocial sciences as useless. The mission of the humanities and social sciences departments is totrain sound doers of democracy. “Country without economic growth” and “country without
democracy.” I would like to ask, which country would you rather not live in?
3． Limit of market economy
Looking back on the history so far, there is an aspect that the development of market economy
has certainly improved our welfare, but in recent years there are other aspects of problems
starting to occur associated with the development of the market economy, such as the growing
concern for environmental problems, economic disparity issues, and problems of divergence
between those and happiness or motivation of people working there. To fundamentally solve
this, it is necessary to reexamine social rules that are the premise of the market economy. Also,
for what individuals can do, “distance from the market,” “self-sufficiency,” “returning to true
materialism,” and “reinvesting in the community” advocated by Juliet Schor are helpful.
4．Artificial intelligence and employment
It is said to be that the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) will make 49% of Japan’s labor
force population to lose their job. Factories will become unmanned, majority of administrativelabor will be replaced by AI, and professionals including doctors and lawyers will feel lesssignificant. Gross domestic product (GDP) is allocated to capital and labor. At present, thelabor share of around 70% falls to about 10% and around 90% is distributed to capital. The
average tax rate of employee income is around 4%. The interest dividend income tax rate is20%, and the corporate income tax rate is 30%. If the government’s tax revenue, which isincreased rapidly due to the decline in labor share, is used to increase the employment ofpublic services, it can prevent the loss of employment.

185

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

1. Sustainability of capital baseHidefumi Kurasaka
1. Decline of sustainability due to declining andsymbolized by words such as lonely death, shopping

aging population

refugees, and disconnected society. It is a deterioration

From the viewpoint of sustainability of the economicof social capital. For example, the single householdsociety, Japan is approaching a major turning point. The

ratio was 18.2% in 1986, but it is predicted that in 2030

population has turned to a downward trend with a peak

it will double to 37.4%.

in 2008.

In this way, in the population declining society, theThis can be regarded as a decrease in human capital,sustainabilityofsocietyisthreatened

by

the

but a decrease in human capital means it is a decrease indeterioration of the four capital bases of human capital,

labor force to care for physical capital such as artificial

artificial capital, natural capital, and social capital.

capital and natural capital.
With respect to artificial capital, various buildings

2. What is sustainability of capital base stock?

and construction made during the rapid growth period

Then, I would like to define what capital base is once

will have their renewal timings concurrently. For

again.

example, at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,

The capital base is defined as an existence with aTransport and Tourism, renewal, maintenance, andmechanism that brings usability in which it will not be

management

lost by providing usability.

expensesintheinfrastructure

improvement will increase sharply, reaching 15 trillion

There is a similar concept of the concept of

yen around 2030 which is almost twice as much fromfund-service resources in ecological economics. In

now, and it is expected to maintain the same level

1971’s The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, it

thereafter.

was pointed out by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen that

Regarding natural capital, it means that the once

fund and stock are different. He uses a hotel room or a

man-made nature such as artificial forests andlight bulb as an example of fund and a piece of candy as

agricultural land will be abandoned. For example, thean example of stock. Based on this arrangement, in thenumber of forestry workers has declined rapidly fromtextbooks of ecological economics of Herman Daly and

146,000 in 1980 to 51,000 in 2010. In addition, theJoshuanumber of key agricultural workers engaged infund-service resources and stock-flow resources. The

agriculture as a work decreased from 5,428,000 in 1985

former is a resource which cannot be deformed

to 1,754,000 in 2015. The average age of key

physically even when the resource is used and can be

agricultural workers is 67 years old in 2015, and it isused repeatedly, and the latter is a resource which

expected that the number of agricultural workers will

deforms physically when the resource is used and does

further decrease in the future.

not remain. The capital base in this paper is equivalent

The abandonment of nature leads to deterioration of

Farley,adistinction

is

made

betweento fund-service resources.

the quality of nature. In the national biodiversity

On the other hand, I also want to define the concept

strategy, since the third national strategy in 2007, theof transit resources as a concept equivalent toimpact of reducing and withdrawing human action

stock-flow resources. Transit resources are defined as aagainst nature is regarded as a crisis of biodiversity.

resource that deforms physically when providing

Managing the breeding of wildlife, such as wild boar

usability and do not remain. The use of transit resourcesand deer, mainly on abandoned artificial forests is anleads to an increase in environmental burden.

issue.

Environmental burden refers to the impact added to the

Furthermore, as the population declines, the network

physical environment by human activities and needs toof cooperation among people is compromised as

be

186

assimilated

using

ecosystem

services.

IfChapter 6

Is Economic Growth Everything?

environmental burden occurs, the amount of ecosystem

might be partially damaged by external disturbance, andservices will decrease.

the like.

An exhaustible resource is one in which the

For example, in Fragile Dominion, Simon Levinmechanism of the natural capital base that produces thepresents

resource is lost, among the transit resources. Mineralmanagement: (1) reduce uncertainty, (2) prepare forresources and fossil fuels are typical. Uranium, a fuelunexpected circumstances, (3) maintain inhomogeneity,

for nuclear power generation, is also an exhaustible(4) keep modular structure, (5) secure redundancy, (6)resource.

strengthen feedback, (7) build relationship of trust, andOn the other hand, updatable (renewable) resources

eightcommandmentsofenvironmental(8) provide things you want to other people as well.

are those that are transit resources and have a

It should be noted that there are principles that willmechanism of natural capital base that produces it. For

not come out from the idea of pursuing efficiency in theexample, sunlight, wind, waves, geothermal, tides, andmarket.

biological resources (biomass) are typical. It runs out if

maximization invites the planting of similar crops andit exceeds the update speed.

leads to the creation of vulnerable ecosystems.

For

example,pursuing

only

profitWater is an updatable resource if it can be updated byMoreover, if you “groom” (maintenance, care) thewater circulation system (natural capital base) like

capital base, it becomes possible to use for a longer

rainwater, surface water, and seawater. On the otherperiod of time, and the service provision amount per

hand, if it is separated from the water circulation system

unit time can be increased.

like the desert groundwater or glacier, it is an

In judging the level of the threshold or the amount of

exhaustible resource. Agricultural crops are updatablecare for sustaining the capital base, it is necessary totransit resources, and agricultural land is a capital baserefer to the knowledge of natural science in each field.

that produces agricultural crops which combine natural

For example, it is necessary to refer to medicine andcapital base and artificial capital base. A captured fish is

nursing knowledge in human capital base, engineering

an updatable transit resource, and the system thatand architectural knowledge in artificial capital base,reproduces fish is the capital base for fish. Even whenand ecology, agriculture and forestry knowledge infully cultivated, the species of fish itself is a natural

natural capital base, respectively.

capital base.
And now, there are thresholds in the capital base

3. From the richness of flow to the richness of stock

where the mechanism that brings usability cannot be

In a society with a declining population, it issustained. For example, human capital base has various

necessary to review the indicators of economic

conditions for sustaining human life and health. The

development from flow indicator to stock indicator.

artificial capital base has various conditions concerning

Kenneth Boulding pointed out 50 years ago about themaintenance, repair, and renewal of artifacts. The

necessity of converting from flow indicator to stock

natural capital base has various conditions for securing

indicator. In the article “The Economics of the Coming

the usability of agricultural land, forest land, and theSpaceship Earth,” Boulding said the economy where

like. Regarding social relationship capital base,environmental constraints are manifested (the astronautalthough it is not as clear as the other three capital bases,

economy) is different from the economy withouta threshold of human occupancy conditions (number

environmental constraints (the cowboy economy) andand density) for sustaining people’s cooperative

stated as the following. “The basic indicator of therelationship is assumed.

success of the astronaut economy is not production

At this time, the management principles of the capital

volume or consumption but status, quantity, quality, andbase consist of estimating the threshold at which thediversity of the total capital stock, including humansystem cannot be sustained, providing a feedback

body conditions. In the astronaut economy, the most

system to check whether the system is approaching theimportant emphasis is on maintaining stock, and thethreshold or not, preparing backup and parcellation as it

technological development that will allow you to187

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

maintain the total stock provided by fewer transit items

breaking down systematically or switching to natural(i.e. less production and consumption) is an evident

renewal with regard to natural capital maintained byprogress.”

human hands and artificial capital that cannot be

The discussion of Boulding indicates that it is not

maintained. Including this direction, it is necessary toappropriate to set the expanding of flow of physicaldevelop the future economic society in the direction of

production and consumption as an indicator for good

securing the richness of stock.

economy if you focus on the environmental burden
accompanying the use of resource energy, and it is

4. Economy consisting of “growth department” andnecessary to switch to an indicator of keeping the state“sustainability department”

of the capital stock, which human life is based on,

For the future economic departments, it will behealthy. However, despite the global environmental

necessary to realize an economy that is balanced

constraint of global warming becoming apparent, we

between the two economic departments “growth

are still not fully aware of the environmental constraints

department” and “sustainability department.”

associated with the use of resource energy, so“Growth department” is an economic department thatflow-based economic indicators as symbolized by thehas customers outside the region and brings income into

growth rate of GDP compared to the previous year are

the region from outside the region. On the other hand,emphasized in the economic management of countries

thearound the world.

department that maintains, manages, and updates“sustainability

department”

isan

economic

However, due to the declining population and thevarious capital bases within the region. These two

aging of society that Japan faces, the expansion of flow

economic departments are not independent of eachhas become difficult due to the shrinking of population

other. For example, if special products can bebase supporting the economy. At the same time, it hasdeveloped in the agricultural sector, income can be

become impossible to cover the maintenance andbrought from outside the region, and at the same time,

management burden of the capital base stock in the

agricultural land within the region can be managed.

region. Through these two factors, inevitably, we had

Although there are overlapping parts like this, it will be

no choice but to switch the economic indicators frommeaningful to assume these two economic departments

flow-based to stocked-base and think about theas an economic department that contributes to thesustainability of capital base stock.

expansion of flow and an economic department thatAt this time, as economic indicators focusing on thecontributes to the maintenance of stock.

capital base stock, for example, indicators for

Regarding the “sustainability department,” jobmeasuring how much the needs of care for the capital

categories such as childcare, education, medical care,base stock is satisfied, such as the proportion of careand nursing care apply to the human capital base. For

recipients/patients who are appropriately receiving

artificial

nursingofarchitecture/construction, repair, and recycling arecare/medicalbuildings/infrastructureservice,thatareproportion

capital

base,

job

categories

such

as

appropriately

applicable. The sharing service that has been drawing

maintained and renewed, and proportion of cultivatedattention recently can be put into the sustainability

land/artificial forests that are appropriately maintained

department from the point of utilizing the existing

and managed, and also indicators concerning the capital

artificial

base stock quantity properly maintained and managed

department for natural capital base is agriculture,

per capita population are assumed.

forestry and fisheries. The renewable energy industry,

capitalbase.

Atypicalsustainability

With regard to these indicators, we can set targets inwhich is the subject of this paper, can also be said aa positive direction even in a society in which thesustainability department for natural capital base. As a

population is decreasing. It will aim for a richness

sustainability department related to social capital base,towards increasing the amount of healthy stock per

NPO and the like concerning town development

capita. In addition, it is necessary to think about

including civil servants and shopping districts may be

188

Chapter 6

applicable.

Is Economic Growth Everything?

maintaining and managing capital base stock, such as

It can be said that the “sustainability department” isnursery teachers, care workers, workers engaged incommunity-based and labor-intensive. It is a businessmaintenance and renewal of social capital, andaccording to the culture of the area and needs of the

agriculture, forestry and fishery workers, are not

local community, different from a business model based

sufficiently secured.

on large-scale mass production. For this reason, it is a

To maintain and manage the capital base stock, it isbusiness with a generally low margin. On the othernecessary to appropriately maintain its scale and at thehand, as we maintain a capital base stock in the local

same time, introduce a tax finance mechanism forcommunity, the needs for the sustainability department

appropriately spending the income from “growthaccording to that amount can be expected on a

department” for maintenance and management of thecontinuous basis.

capital base stock.

Today, there are situations in which personnel for

189

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

2. Economic growth and democracy
Takamitsu Sawa
1. Ripple of the notification from the Minister of

Idea of University Reform from the Viewpoint of

Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Innovation (December 17, 2014). It says, “For national

A notification from the Minister of Education,

universities, in the 3rd term mid-term target period from

Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) that

fiscal 2016, all national universities will have to besays,

teacher-trainingclassified into the three categories whose missions aredepartments/graduate schools and humanities and social“Withclassified as follows: 1) regional revitalization as wellscience departments/graduate schools, we request theas specific field prioritized support bases; 2) specificuniversities to formulate an organization review plan

field prioritized support bases, 3) education andbased on the decline in the population of 18 years old,

research at the highest level in the world prioritizeddemands

support bases. We will set up a new framework basedforregardhuman

toresources,

securementofeducational research level, role as a national university,onetc. and actively tackle the abolishment of organizations

measurements and evaluations from the viewpoint of

these

categories,

makedetailedbudgetand shift toward areas with high social demands” wasmaximizing their unique functions as well as missions,sent to 86 national university directors as of June 8,

and strengthen their function as a university.” 55 out of2015.

86 national universities selected category 1), 15

Prior to that, in November 2013, the MEXT released

selected category 2), and 16 selected category 3). In

the National University Reform Plan and encouraged

addition, the proposal in the relevant WG is regarded aseach national university to accelerate the reform andthe basis for introducing the annual salary system ofreorganization toward the 3rd term mid-term starting in

national

fiscal 2016. What is the reform for? One of thecross-appointment system (a system in which two

objectives was to create innovation, second was tonational universities/national research and development

promote internationalization of education and research,

corporations apportion the salary payment amount).

university

facultymembersandthe

In short, in order to accelerate “industrial metabolism

and third was to raise world rankings of Japaneseand innovation” that is indispensable for enhancing theuniversities.
The Industrial Competitiveness Council was set up

international competitiveness (contributing to economic

shortly after the Abe administration went into effect ingrowth) of Japan’s industry, which is in an apparent

December 2012. When I took a look at the minutes of

downward trend in recent years, the reform of

the “industrial metabolism and innovation” working

universities that cultivate innovators, especially nationalgroup (WG) of the Industrial Competitiveness Council

universities, must first be given priority. I am not going

which presently consists of the Prime Minister, 10 otherto deny the necessity of national university reform.

ministers, 8 economists, and 2 university professors.

What is to be a problem is the contents of reform. At

Since one of the professors Kazuhito Hashimoto,least, I do not think that dividing universities into three

Professor of Engineering School, the University of

categories and gradually allocating the budget will

Tokyo (at that time), was serving as the chairperson of

immediately bring about improvement of the research

the WG, the discussion had focused mainly on national

capabilities of 16 universities belonging to type 3).

university reforms.

To put it briefly, I believe that all institutional

All of the various national university reform plans

reforms of Japanese universities that began in the

proposed by the MEXT’s Corporate Support Division

1990s, such as introduction of a common primary examof Higher Education Bureau seem to have been based(the predecessor of the center exam), prioritization of

on the discussion in the above WG. The summary of thegraduate schools, deregulation of general liberal arts

discussion at the WG can be seen in the report Basiceducation, and establishment of professional graduate

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Is Economic Growth Everything?

schools including Law School, being a failure thathumanities, and primarily focus on science andmade the international competitiveness of Japaneseengineering, leaving education of law and humanities toindustry slump as a result contrary to the intention.

private institutions,” which caused a controversy.
Behind this remark by the Education Minister two facts

2. Emphasis on science and less on humanities is aexisted. One was that at the time the student movement

tradition of Japan

opposing the revision of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty

In Japan, the bad practice of measuring the value of

had reached its climax, and most of the university

academics and sciences by a narrow scale ofstudents who led the demonstration opposing the“usefulness” is not yet cut off. In this country, the idea

security treaty were students of law or humanities

that the study of science is “useful” while the study ofdepartments at national universities. Another was thathumanities is “useless” is widely shared both now andthe rapid economic growth period had begun in Julyin the past. Let’s pick up some examples for evidence

1958, and the promotion of the science and engineeringfrom the past history.

departments at national universities was strongly

According to the provisions of the military service

requested by the industrial sector as well as thelaw (promulgated on April 1, 1927), recruitment wasgovernment.

suspended for students aged less than 26 who were

In the “income doubling plan” decided by theenrolled in higher education institutions (former highCabinet in December 1960 shortly after the Ikeda

school, university, vocational school, higher teacher’s

Cabinet was inaugurated, “promotion of science andschool). In September 1943 during the Second World

technology is indispensable for economic growth, andWar, shortage of troops became prominent due to thethe student capacity of science and engineering

increase in the number of deaths accompanying thedepartments at universities shall increase by 170,000.”

expansion of war and deterioration of the war situation

It should not be an exaggeration to say that it was thesince the previous year right after the opening of

historic Economic White Paper in 1956, known for its

U.S.-Japan war, and it was decided to cancel the

famous quote, “no longer in the postwar era,” and thedeferment limited only to students of humanities. On

masterpiece writing by Yonosuke Gotoh (1916-1960)

October 21 of the same year, the first group of students

who was Survey Manager at the Economic Planning

went to war. College students of humanities and former

Agency,high school students of humanities are “useless”

engineering-oriented educational policy. In the wording

students, even if they are conscripted and sent to theof “no longer in the postwar era,” Gotoh connoted thebattlefield or even die, national interests are notfollowing deep implications. In 1955, the Japanesedamaged. On the other hand, College students in theeconomy recovered to the prewar (1937) level. For thescience and science students of the former high school

decade following the war, the Japanese economy

are knowledgeable students who can contribute, such asattained its goal with the spring-load aiming at “postwar

developing weapons, and are recognized to be “useful”

recovery.” In order to promote more economic

in continuing the war, so instead of sending them to thedevelopment, it is indispensable to set up newbattlefield, it corresponds to national interests tospring-loads. As new spring-loads, Gotoh proposed

mobilize for work in places like research institutes ofinnovation and transformation.

the army and navy.

thatpioneeredthescience-and

The word innovation whose Japanese translation is
gijutsu-kakuhin that was coined by Gotoh, was a timely

3. The era of the versatile science and engineering:four-character Japanese idiom suitable for symbolizing

1960’sthe era in which “catch up and overtake” was the motto.

In March 1960, Minister of Education under the
Nobusuke

Kishi’sCabinet,MasudaThe key players in technological innovation would be

Takechiyo,

graduates from undergraduate departments and graduate

unleashed his opinion that “national universities should

schools in science and engineering. After that, forabolish the undergraduate departments of law andseveral years, a rush of new establishment of science191

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

and engineering undergraduate departments and schools

Joseph Stalin (1878-1953), were either graduates fromcontinued. Kyoto University, where I worked for 37

an engineering school or a former factory worker,

years, tends to be thought of as the “hall of uselessgeneration after generation. Mikhail Gorbachev (1931

studies” where literature and science departments were-), the last supreme leader of the former Soviet Union,

influential. However, from the late 1950’s to the 1960’s,

had an unconventional background having graduatedthe rush to establish new departments and expand thefrom Law School at Moscow State University. It is

student capacity of the engineering faculty at Kyoto

conceivable that Gorbachev was able to play the

University was impressive, with the irregular structureleading role in the dissolution of the former Sovietof having one out of three new students as anUnion because he was “unconventional” as the supreme

engineering student continuing up to this day. On a side

leader of the Soviet Union.

note, Yonosuke Goto was also a bureaucratic economist

In China as well, for three consecutive generations,who graduated from Tokyo Imperial University’s

Jiang Zemin (served: 1993-2003; hereinafter the same),

Department of Electrical Engineering.

Hu Jintao (2003-13), and Xi Jinping (2013-) have taken
office as a graduate from prestigious science and4. Totalitarian state where graduates from scienceengineering universities. For Premier also, Li Pengand engineering fields exert their influence(1987-1998), Zhu Rongji (1998-2003), and Wen Jiabao

Mr. Masaru Ibuka (1908-1997), founder of Sony and(2003-2013) were graduates of prestigious science anda graduate from Faculty of Science and Engineering atengineering

universities

for

three

consecutive

Waseda University, was stubborn about his loud opinion

generations, followed by Li Keqiang (2013-), athat not only business managers but also senior officials

graduate of Law School at Peking University and aof the government, ministries, and agencies, as well as

holder of Ph.D. degree in Economics. Because thethe majority of the Diet members would eventually bespeech criticizing the system is not permitted in acomprised by graduates of science and engineering

totalitarian state, graduates of humanities and social

departments. Fortunately or unfortunately in Japan, his

sciences departments cannot climb the career ladder offorecast did not turn out to be correct. Today, most of

the Communist Party to the top, and along the way, they

the senior officials of the government, ministries, andare frowned upon by the authority of the time to beagencies, about half of the managers of manufacturing

purged miserably.

companies, and the majority of the Diet members are

As I looked at such sequence of events, I came up

graduates from the humanities and social science

with the following thesis. “The totalitarian state

departments.

inevitably excludes knowledges of humanities andWhy is it so? The reason is simple. Because after all,social sciences. A state which neglects humanities andJapan is a democratic country. Many of the graduates ofsocial science-related knowledges will end up as ahumanities and social science departments tend to havetotalitarian state as a matter of course.” I am afraid toa more vigorous critical spirit utilizing their academic

digress somewhat, but there is something I want to say

knowledge than their peers who graduated from ataking this opportunity. During the deliberation of thescience department. At the same time, they excel insecurity-related bill at the National Diet in 2014, mosttheir expressive abilities relatively. It is nothing but aconstitutional scholars, regardless of whether they werevigorous critical spirit and skillful expressive ability

constitutional revisionists or protectionists, insisted thatthat enable them to state their views logically enough in“the security bill was unconstitutional under theplacesexisting constitution.” Instead, the administration

like

conferences

which

are

built

upon

democracy.

steamrollered the bill both through the House of

Ironically, Mr. Ibuka’s forecast turned out to be

Representatives and the House of Councilors, refusing

exactly true in totalitarian states such as the former

to listen.

Soviet Union and China. Former Soviet Union’s

To this extreme extent, politics that unapologeticallysupreme leaders after Vladimir Lenin (1870-1924) andignore the opinions of constitutional scholars can be

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Is Economic Growth Everything?

practiced openly in this country, without receiving

Recently, among the leaders in the fields of STEM

citizens’ accusations. This is a typical example of(an English acronym of science, technology,“neglect of humanities and social science-related

engineering, mathematics), there is a rapidly

knowledge,” and according to my thesis, Japan isspreading recognition that humanities and social

steadily progressing towards a totalitarian state. In fact,

sciences are of crucial importance in yielding results

the Liberal Democratic Party’s draft revision to thein the STEM fields. As an example, recently, theConstitution (February 2012) states that while it shalldeans of engineering schools at 122 universities

respect the freedom of speech and fundamental humanacross the United States jointly submitted therights, it came with the proviso which said, “provided,

following request letter to President Obama.

however, that this shall not apply, if it is against the“I would like you to have the next generation of

public interest or public order.” In addition, the phrase

engineers acquire technical and thinking skills that“citizens are respected as an individual” is rejected forwill be enough to overcome social issues that need to“respected as a person” as it is not good as it may leadbe dealt with urgently. For example, engineering

to an unwanted spread of individualism.

alone cannot secure profitability of solar power

For me who considers modern Western ideology ofgeneration, put artificial intelligence into practicalliberalism, democracy, and individualism as universal

use, defend against cyberattacks, etc. We strongly

and inviolable values, if the Abe administration

hope for cooperation based on mutual understanding

steamrolls a constitutional revision that takes the gist ofwith scholars and practitioners of humanities andthe draft, it seems that his frequently used propositionsocial science fields such as human behavior“the seven advanced nations share a sense of value”

science, policy science, and economics.”

might lose its legitimacy.

At the international conference of deans ofengineering departments held in Adelaide, Australia
this September (sic; 2015), all the participants signed

5. From STEM to STEAM
In the Japan Times dated August 23, 2015, I

a statement of a similar intention. One of thecontributed a commentary entitled “Humanities under

proposals is as follows. “We should incorporate

attack” criticizing the MEXT Minister’s notice dated

learning and acquisition of interdisciplinary andJune 8. I criticized the usefulness-oriented academic

global insights into engineering education to educate

and scientific evaluation method peculiar to Japan.

students to have a wide range of abilities toThen I received an email from Vice President Thomas

understand human behavior, policies, and culture,

Katsouleas of the University of Virginia in the Unitedi.e., knowledges of humanities and social sciences.”States, with the following contents. Just in case, I add

Recently, countries outside Japan are switchingthat Vice President Katsouleas is the authority offrom STEM to STEAM (which adds arts, meaningelectronic engineering, who has also gained a highhumanities to STEM). Amidst this, I feel obliged to

reputation regarding university administration.

say that it is a wrong policy for only Japanese
universities to turn off the rudder of higher education

I heard that the Minister of Education, Culture,and go against the global trend.

Sports, Science and Technology of the Abe Cabinet

I would like Japan to learn from the following bad

notified the presidents of the national universities inprecedent. In the remarks in the opening ceremony

Japan that “they should either abolish undergraduateof the Shanghai Summit “Education for Economic

departments

toInnovation” held in 2011, then Minister of Science

humanities and social sciences, or attempt a shift to a

and Technology of China stated as follows. “Chinese

field with a higher societal demand.” I hear the aim

universities train 75,000 engineers immediatelyof the notice is to increase the international

ready to join the workforce each year, but many ofcompetitiveness of Japanese industries, but it is quite

them struggle to find employment. The reason is thatlikely that such a measure can have adverse effects.

in the eyes of those in human resources at

andgraduateschools

related193

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

multinational
engineering

companies,
education

is

the

way

China’s“more harmonious with society,” etc. As a result, the

done

is

considered

possibility that engineers who only possess knowledges

inappropriate. “of engineering (lacking aesthetic sense, knowledge ofhumanities and social sciences) become leaders in

6. Transition of coordinate axes of technologicalgroundbreaking innovation became slim. In short, it is a

progresstransformation from modernism to postmodernism in

I gratefully received the email from Vice President

the world of technology.

Katsouleas, and I took the following two points from it.
Firstly, academic and scientific views that consider

7. Japanese engineers who lack knowledges ofscience almighty and neglect humanities are apparently

humanities and social sciences

unique in Japan compared to other developed countries.

At the launch of iPad 2 in March 2011, Steve Jobs

Since ancient times, in Europe, emphasis has beenconcluded his speech with the following message.

placed on history, philosophy, literature, etc., and there“Technology alone is not enough. It’s technology

are not a few bureaucrats and politicians who majoredmarried with liberal arts, married with humanities, thatin humanities (especially history) at a university. With ayields the results that make our hearts sing.” A reporter

strong tradition of pragmatism rooted deep in theof The Economist commented as follows: “It was

United States, lawyers who are graduates from law

unusual statement for the head of a technology firm, butschools seem to have a dominant control of politics, andit was vintage Steve Jobs.” (The Economist, June 5,

the social standings of MBA holders who are expected2012 issue).

to be business managers and economists with PhD

It is likely one of the reasons why many Japanese

degree in economics are also high. Despite theelectronics manufacturers are on the decline, that many

relatively small number of undergraduate and graduate

Japanese engineers are technological supremacists,

students majoring in humanities, not a few researchers

lacking in knowledges of humanities and social

boast excellent achievements in fields such as literature,sciences. Since the introduction of the common primaryphilosophy, linguistics, sociology, and political science.

examination in 1979, Japanese language and social

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) tends tostudies including history became excluded from thebe misunderstood as a college of engineering, but

required subjects in individual entrance examinations ofencompasses a lot of departments in humanities andengineeringsocial sciences. As Vice President Katsouleas says, weuniversities (except the University of Tokyo and Kyoto

can consider MIT to traditionally have prepared a

University). Since the detailed rules of university

system to train engineers knowledgeable in humanities

establishment standards were abolished in 1991,

and social sciences.

“general principles” has been implemented, and general

departmentsofJapanesenational

Secondly, at the end of the 20th century, as pointed

education curricula were abolished, and the curriculum

out in the introductory chapter earlier, the coordinate

for liberal arts education has been left up to theaxes of technological progress changed drastically. The

autonomy of each university. Because of this, after

technological progress up to the 1960s in the 20thentering a university, most engineering students became

century was aimed at “faster,” “larger,” “stronger,” andable to avoid learning liberal arts subjects related to“higher.” However, since the oil shock in 1973 andhumanities and social sciences.

since the adoption of the “Kyoto Protocol” at the 3rd

The Industrial Competitiveness Conference was

UN Conference of Parties to the United Nationsorganized by the Japanese Economic Revitalization

Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997,

Headquarters in January 2013. According to Meeting

there has been a significant change in the vectors ofminutes of the Japanese Economic Revitalization

technological progress. “More resource-saving,” “lessHeadquarters,

greenhouse gas emissions,” “lighter, smaller, andcompetitivenessthinner,” “more multi-functional,” “smarter,” “safer,”deliberate

194

“they

will

conference

embodiment

and

hold

an

to

investigate

promotionindustrial
of

and
the

Chapter 6

Is Economic Growth Everything?

strengthening of the competitiveness of the Japanese

departments and graduate schools of humanities andindustries, and the growth strategy for internationalsocial sciences contribute next to none to the economic

expansion.” As of May 9, 2016, the members of thegrowth and strengthening of industrial competitiveness,

conference are 10 ministers including Prime Ministerand therefore that it is urgent to attempt to abolish orAbe, 8 business owners, and 2 university professors.

change them, I can agree with it wholeheartedly.

Eight business managers have joined as conference

I myself do not find it bothersome to admit thatmembers from the private business sector, but aside

undergraduate departments and graduate schools of

from Mr. Akio Mimura, Honorary Chairman of Nippon

humanities and social sciences do not contribute to the

Steel & Sumitomo Metal and Chairman of the Japaneconomic growth, at least not directly. However, if we

Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Mr.

take in my opinion that “a country that rejects the

Yoshimitsu

Mitsubishi

knowledge of humanities and social sciences is certain

Chemical Holdings and Chairman of Japan Association

to be a totalitarian state,” the following question shouldof Corporate Executives, the other 6 members from thebe raised. “Would you rather not live in ‘a society

business sector have a background of founding an IT or

without economic growth’ or ‘a society without

consulting-related company, distancing themselves

democracy’”? My answer to this question is as follows.

from the mainstream businesses. One of the two“Even if it would mean no economic growth, I would

scholarsof

not want to live in a society without democracy.” I

Engineering School at the University of Tokyo, and theassume that the majority of the readers have the sameother is Professor Heizo Takenaka of Toyo University

opinion as mine, but it should be nothing but

who used to be a cabinet member of Koizumi

unexpected if many of the members of the Industrial

Administration.

Competitiveness Conference will even end up asking

If

the

Kobayashi,isProfessor

Industrial

ChairmanKazuhitoofHashimoto

CompetitivenessConferencesuch a question.

composed of these faces think that the undergraduate

195

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

3. Limit of market economy
Seiji Ikkatai
are typical examples of this.

1. Deviation between market economy and wealth
We are currently in the midst of the market economy,

We can say, for generations that actually experienced

so we tend to think that this is a matter of course.

such a period, that purchasing such items from the

However, when we look back on history, it is not thatmarket definitely made the affluence feel real, and thelong ago that the market economy was established indevelopment of the market economy was also linked

human society and developed to this degree.

with the sense of affluence and happiness of individuals.

In the Edo period, agriculture was the basis of society,In other words, common social recognition that theand the proportion of people engaged in agriculture wasdevelopment of the market economy was to promote

overwhelmingly large. This is partly because, under thetheisolation policy in the Edo period, people had to beestablished.

wealthandhappinessofindividuals

wasself-sufficient regarding food with a limited area of

However, since the beginning of the 1990s when

farmland, and at the same time because they had tosuch rapid development of market economy after the

depend on human power, cattle, and horses for

war ended, around the time of the collapse of thecultivating agricultural crops which were troublesome,so-called Bubble economy, a situation arose in which

as there was no fossil fuel or steam engine, etc.

buying goods from the market as in the past did not

Of course, even in the Edo period, there were special

necessarily directly link to improving the sense of

products in each han domain, with a thriving

affluence or happiness.

handcrafting industry, and various products produced
there circulated to various places by means of currency.

One of the reasons is that the relationships with

However, in agricultural areas, the food was mostly

others in society have an important influence on the

self-procured, and even among the common people

sense of richness and satisfaction after the basic desire

living in urban areas, they made most of what theyfor human survival has been satisfied. I say the modern

could make themselves and repaired them.

situation is that because of this, no matter how many

The time when the social system gradually advanced

things or services you buy from the market, you cannot

from that of self-sufficiency to that of division of labor,

feel affluent or happy if you are conscious of others

and it was further advanced, must have been after the

who are purchasing more expensive things, and because

period of rapid economic growth after the World War II,of this, you have the consciousness in which you mustand furthermore, after sophisticated industrial products

earn more and consume more. For this reason,and the like began to overflow in general households.

sometimes, it also produces a tragedy that should not

The background of it was, on one hand, thatexist from the standpoint of richness and happiness,

individual income had increased rapidly, and thesuch as death from overwork. In addition, unlimited

purchasing power in the market had improved. Also, it

production and expansion of consumption have brought

should be noted that as each product or service sold in

about waste of resources and deterioration of thethe market became more sophisticated and could noenvironment.

longer be made by amateurs easily, and also that what

On the other hand, it is not only when people buy

was relatively expensive in the past became easier tothings from the market that people feel rich. Speaking

purchase due

progress offrom how I feel, for example, there is certainly

technology, etc., having made them cheaper. Fromsomething that can be obtained from what is not sold infamily-owned cars that spread through each household

the market, such as the green of the surrounding trees,in the decade following 1955, to the three sacredwild animals including birds and insects that come into

treasures of TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, theysight, and the beautiful starry sky. There are alsotomass production,

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Is Economic Growth Everything?

richness and happiness that you feel by making

the amount that their ancestors had 500 years ago,” hesomething yourself, not by purchasing goods, or bysays. Therefore, “Although humanity and the global

interacting with others. Furthermore, things like hopeeconomy will continue to develop, more people may

and anxiety about the future such as that of the global

live while suffering in hunger and poverty,” Harari

environment and the future of humanity also lead to asays.

sense of affluence and happiness that cannot be bought

On the other hand, Harari points out, when measured

directly from the market.

by purely material and physical aspects such as average

In that sense, it seems that the double problem seems

life expectancy, child mortality rate, caloric intake, etc.,

to be occurring in the modern time, in which in addition

the average person’s standard of living in 2014

to being in a situation where affluence and happinessdramatically improved compared with the level of 1914,

gained by purchasing something from the market is

despite the drastic increase in population. However, as

increasingly difficult to obtain, the sense of happinessstated earlier, there is now a situation in which people

that cannot be directly obtained from the market

cannot feel the affluence or happiness in countries thatoriginally is decreasing, due to the deterioration of theare supposed to be enjoying the fruits of affluence andglobal and regional environments, etc. Therefore, it

happiness. What on earth should we do?

feels today that the common perception of the society,which once existed, that human beings can be affluent

3. Formation of a society based on the idea of socialand happy as long as the market economy is developed,

common capitalis greatly being shaken.

When we look back on the history so far, there is

2. The form of society determined by market

certainly an aspect of the development of the market

capitalism and economic growtheconomy which has improved our welfare. The fact that

Sapiens - A Brief History of Humankind, publishedgeneral living standards have improved, nutritional

by Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari in 2016, statesconditions

have

improved,

life

expectancy

hasthat the credit system based on the modern monetary

increased, among others, should be testimony to this.

economy and development of new technologies that

However, can we leave much of the formation ofcreate new values have led to the global economic

society to the market economy in the future as it is

growth. And it says that the supremacism of free market

now?

capitalism, which argues that it is best for the

In the present age, many activities are entrusted togovernment to refrain from making interference inprivate enterprises from the viewpoint of increasing theorder to ensure such economic growth, is the mostefficiency of the economy. In Japan also, from such acommon and influential of the present capitalist beliefs.

viewpoint, the railway business, which was once

However, Harari states, looking back on history,

directly managed and operated by the government andEuropean capitalism in the early modern era led to thewas in huge deficit, was privatized and divided into

tragic fact that the Atlantic slave trade flourished as afinancially independent businesses in principle. The

result of the market principle, which was not subject toeffect was remarkable, with the service improving inany control, dominating the society. Such behaviors

profitablelacking capitalist ethics did not improve even in the

improving as well. However, on one hand, in rural

19th century, he says, but in the 20th century, especiallyrailway companies such as JR Hokkaido which haveafter the World War II ended in 1945, due to fear of

not been able to gain profit, a vicious circle ofcommunism, it seems that the capitalist’s greed was

reductions in users and deterioration in convenience has

stopped somewhat. However,arisen, and it is in an inevitable situation to abolish“The pie of the economy is much larger than that of

unprofitable routes. On the other hand, some companies

1500, but its distribution is so unfair that even if

have emerged, such as JR Tokai, with an annual profit

farmers in Africa and laborers in Indonesia work theirof 500 billion yen, trying to invest it in a maglev

fingers to the bone all day, the food they get is less thanrailway that is less energy efficient, and much

197

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andconvenienceB: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

problematicfrom

improvingOn that point, Professor Juliet Schor of Columbia

sustainability in the future. Under such circumstances,

University, in her book Plenitude, states as follows. I

there is a debate as to whether the railroads, as public

will quote some points although it will be a little long.

transportation

theviewpoint

responsible

for

of

Japan’score“The modern time is an era of environmental crisis

transportation, can really be left up to the management

including climate change issues, and at the same time, itof private enterprises.

is also an era of economic crisis as seen in economic

That can be said, for example, about forests, one of

instability as made evident by the Lehman Shock, andthe important natural capital of Japan. With respect toinequality

problems.

(Omitted)

Many

of

the

the forest management in Japan, many forests haveconceptions of sustainability presented in recent years

been abandoned and cannot be taken care of from theare based on environmental preservation technology,

viewpoint of timber production, because Japan has

but that alone is insufficient. Unless we transform theimported cheap foreign timber since the rapid economic

structure of many socioeconomic systems in totality,

growth period and the accompanying stagnation ofincluding the energy system, and unless we incorporate

prices of domestically produced timber. This can also

unconventional rhythms into labor, consumption, andbe said to be the result of entrusting socially important

everyday life, we will not be able to stop thenatural capital to the market economy. There is also adeterioration of the environment or regain economic

debate as to whether it is advisable to leave the future ofsoundness. (Omitted) However, collective consensus isrice paddies, which have played a role in maintaining

always necessary to make a large-scale transformation

the environment in the Japanese land also, to the market

successful. We need a mechanism to reduce carbon

economy called free trade.

dioxide, and we need a new labor market policy.

Needless to say, it is a fact that there are excellent(Omitted) However, while working on these changes,

aspects to the market economy, such as the function tothere are things we can do during that transition period.

continuously pursue efficiency, but there are many

They are actions based on the four basic principles ofissues, as seen earlier, that cannot be solved by the<plenitude> below. The first principle is new allocation

market economy, such as the disparity and equalityof time. It means that, while we work long hours in theissues, and the environmental problems. For that reason,

market to earn income, and acquire consumer goods

concerning

capitalfrom the market, we should lower this level of market

commonly needed by people in any age, it may be

dependence. The second principle is to get out of thenecessary

managementtoexamine

of
the

basic

socialsuchmarket, and make, grow, or do something for ourselves,management not by the government or a private

possibility

ofi.e., “self-sufficiency.” The third principle is “trueenterprise, but in the form of Collaborative Commonsmaterialism.” It is not about being trendy or

so to speak, collaboratively managed by the people

status-oriented, but living a life while being aware ofwithin the scope that is agreed upon, rather than leaving

the functions inherent to the materials, and theireverything up to the private enterprises.

environmental impact, in life. The fourth principle is to

Incidentally, in Germany, many cooperatives on

restore investment in each other and our community,
so-called social capital.”regional renewable energy have been established, andCollaborative Commons-style management, so to speak,Some may think that there is something unusualis actually being carried out.

about the idea of reducing the level of market
dependence of the first principle, but from the

4. Construction of true abundance individuals canperspective of the long history of humankind, as seen

start

before, it is only recently that the so-called market

We have seen many problems surrounding the market

economy was established, division of labor developed

economy so far, but it does not seem not easy to solve

so much, and the lifestyle became one of purchasing

them. Especially, what can be done by individuals may

almost all goods and services necessary for daily living

be limited.

with the income earned from working. Moreover, in

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Is Economic Growth Everything?

modern times when many energy and materials can be

to finish the interior and the furniture. During that time,

producedandthe work every weekend was a fulfilling andconsumption should have originally been “means” toandconsumed,

while

incomechallenging experience for me, and the time made me

acquire <plenitude>, gaining more of those things

very happy. Now, my greatest pleasure is to read there.

became the “end” in itself, and people are damaging

The price was reasonable, and although I was nottheir minds and bodies as a result of extraordinarily

completely self-sufficient, I felt the potential oflong hours of work and black part-time jobs. On the“self-sufficiency” advocated by Schor spreading in theother hand, if we simply reduce the level of market

future.

dependence, there may be concerns that income will be
reduced and people will be even poorer. Schor’s answer
to that is the idea of the second principle below.
That is, in modern “self-sufficiency,” there is amovement that is changing the conventional common
sense that “If I want to do that, it will take time and cost.
It is easier and cheaper to buy that from the market,”she says.
That is the progress of technology and the spread of
the Internet. For example, due to the emergence of 3D
printers and the transformation of information into an
open source one, what could not be made previously bylaypeople at all unless expensive machines, and design
and production information were available, it is now
possible to make one much more cheaply thanks to 3D
printers and free information.
Of course, if we assume they should be exactly thesame things as what are overflowing in town, it may bedifficult to make them. However, on the premise of thethird principle “true materialism,” it seems to bepossible to make goods which are satisfactory
functionally.
I myself had the experience of building a small

References

garden hut in the garden of my house last spring.
However, rather than procuring the materials to make it1) Yuval Noah Harari. Sapiens zenshi. (Sapiens - Afrom scratch, I purchased a kit of storage shed of a

Brief History of Humankind. Vol. 1 & 2).

panel assembly type developed by using domesticallyTranslated by Hiroyuki Shibata. Kawade Shobo

produced cedar from a small company in Tohoku,

Shinsha. 2017.

assembled it myself, and created my own interior. I was

2) Juliet Schor. Plenitude (Plenitude: The New

able to complete the assembling and roofing themselves

Economics of True Wealth). Translated by Koji

with my daughter’s help in two full days using holidays,

Morioka. Iwanami Shinsho. 2011.

and after that it required a little more than two months

199

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

4. Artificial intelligence and employment
Takamitsu Sawa
1. The merits and demerits of the Industrial

free, you can browse the Internet to shop freely, andRevolution

you can browse the news for free. Most ofNow, a major change is deeply and quietly

encyclopedias and dictionaries have become useless.

progressing, a change that only occurs about once every

Medical advances in the past quarter century have been

half a century. We refer to that change as Industry 4.0,

remarkable, and it is not an exaggeration to say thator the 4th Industrial Revolution.

most of their birth parents were digital technologies.

It was the highly efficient steam engine invented byNow, artificial intelligence (AI) is driving the 4 thJames Watt in 1769 that drove the 1st Industrial

Industrial Revolution that is currently progressing. The

Revolution in the early 19th century. In coal mines,

power of AI was put on a show in March 2016 when thewhere coal to be used as fuel for steam engines was

AI go player named “Alpha Go,” developed by amined, horses were used as power sources. Ironically,

subsidiary of Google, defeated the world’s best

the introduction of steam engines to coal mines as

professional go player by overwhelming 4 wins and 1

power sources to replace horses became the beginningloss. The professional player who lost three consecutiveof its widespread use. Later, around 1800, steam

games in the beginning fought back and won the fourth

engines began to be used for transportation systems

round, but lost in the following fifth round. It was the

such as steamboats and steam locomotives (railroads),

ability known as “deep learning” that decided thespinning machines and the like. Various transportation

victory of Alpha Go. By repeating rounds, Alpha Go

systems and spinning machines replaced human andbecomes a better player through deep learning.

horse labor, resulting in significant improvement in

Making the factory unmanned by making full use of
AI and robots is the aim of the 4th Industrial Revolution.

productivity.
The driving force of the 2nd Industrial Revolution in

The 1st to 3rd Industrial revolutions caused the following

the early 20th century was the spread of two power

bad effects: global warming, air pollution, marine

sources: oil and electric power. It is said that the 20th

pollution,

century was “the century of innovation,” but every new

personal information leakage, hacking and so on.

product that appeared one after another used petroleumriver

pollution,

biodiversity

reduction,

Although the aspect of these negative effects cannot
be overlooked, the merits of human’s liberation fromproducts or electric power as its power sources.
It was the computer that drove the 3rd Industrial

physically hard labor, and the remarkable improvement

Revolution. Initially, the Japanese translation of thein convenience and comfort of their lives, were

word

enormous enough to compensate for the negative

computerwasdenshi keisanki(electronic

calculator). However, the proportion of calculations

effects.

However,the4thcomprising the usage of personal computers became

confrontsusthefollowingequal to none, and the word denshi keisanki has becomechallenges that shake the foundation of the economy.

withIndustrial

Revolution

unprecedented

almost like a dead word. The Chinese translation ofcomputer, dennou (electronic brain), was a translation

2. Decrease in labor distribution rate due tothat far more appropriately captured how computers

unmanned factories

would be today. It was after the beginning of the last

In manufacturing industries, raw materials are

decade of the 20th century that the so-called digitalprocessed to produce goods, with production factors:

revolution i.e., the 3rdIndustrial Revolution occurred.

capital and labor. When processing, energy including

Thanks to the digital revolution, the convenience andfossil fuels and electric power is indispensable. The

comfort of our lives has dramatically improved. If you

value added (the product sales minus cost of raw

have a smartphone, you can send and receive email formaterials and energy) is distributed among labor and200

Chapter 6

Is Economic Growth Everything?

capital. The value added distributed to labor is again

the abilities in which AI falls short of human

distributed to each employee as wages according toknowledge.

his/her contribution, while the value added distributed

With the 4th Industrial Revolution, human beings will

to capital is allocated as dividends to shareholders,

finally be released from the hardship of labor. Labor

remuneration to executives, repayment of loans fromreferred to here includes not only sweat-drippingbanks, and payment of interest. The value added

physical labor but also clerical labor and brain labor

becomes either individual’s income or corporate

performed while sitting at a desk. Liberation from labor

income.

for a lot of people means that they do not get to have a

The government applies progressive taxation

to employee income, and fixed rate taxation onplace to work even if they want to work.

corporate income, interest income and dividend income,In fact, according to a joint research by Nomura

to secure financial resources for public services.

Research Institute and Associate Professor Michael

What will happen if a factory become unmanned?

Osbourne of the Oxford University, “49% of Japan’s

There will be no one at all in the factory. It will be justlabor force population to be replaceable by artificial

severalintelligencepeopleinthecontrol

room,

tens

of

and

robots”.

Trial calculation

were

administrative staff members, tens of engineers who are

performed on their probability of replacement withresponsible for research and development, and somecomputer technology. Most of clerical works are

ten-odd executives. Mass production will be possible

categorized as replaceable. Nearly half of the labor

only with capital (factory and facility) and 100 to 200

force population have no place to work even if they

employees. Currently, the labor share of value added

want to work. What should we do? A proposalthfrequently made is the introduction of measures inIndustrial Revolution, the number of people working at

which the government guarantees what is called thefactories and offices will decrease, and artificial

basic income for citizens’ living. In other words, it says

intelligence and robots will replace human labor. As athat about half of households should go on welfare.

result, of course, it is fair to expect the labor share ofToday, not a few people feel that working is not

added value to certainly decline and fall to around 10%.

necessarily a toil, and find joy and meaning of life in

In other words, capital share will rise to around 90%.

working. So, I would like to make the following

has been around 70%. With the progress of the 4

proposal.
3. Half of the labor force population will be
4. The 4th Industrial Revolution and employment

unemployedService industries that sell hospitality such as luxury

Let’s assume that 90% of the value added was

hotels, fine restaurants, and bars, are quite unlikely to

distributed as interest and dividend incomes, corporate

be able to replace humans with AI or robots. Althoughincome, and executive remuneration. In other words,

the professions in school education, academics, nursing

only 10% of value added would be distributed tocare, medical care, legal affairs, public affairs, finance,

employee income. If the value added was the same, aetc., will not be completely eliminated, it will bedecline in labor share would greatly boost the total tax

inevitable to receive assistance from AI and robots as isrevenue. The average tax rate of employee income isexemplified with respect to medical care later.

around 4%. The interest and dividend income tax rate isCommunication through language is also one of the

20%, and the corporate income tax rate is over 23%.

areas in which AI is weak. Stylized communication,

Due to the change in the share of the value added, thesuch as ordering meals at a restaurant, can be left to AI.

government’s tax revenue would increase by about 2.7

However, AI is not likely to substitute a skilled chef. Ittimes. The funding source for distributing basic income

seems that only humans can adjust steak donenesswould be secured for the time being. However, nobody

according to customers’ taste, not to mention creating

would want to live in a society where about half of themenu and serving plates in Japanese cuisine.

households are on welfare, i.e., recipients of the basic

An organizational management skill is also one ofincome.

201

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Therefore, I would like to propose the following

production quantity increases, the fixed cost per productmeasures. Until now, under the name of administrative

will decrease gradually. We can anticipate withreform, the number of people engaged in public service

certainty that, in the not so distant future, unmanned

has been reduced as much as possible. Concerning thefactories will have a price competitiveness that will

people who have lost their workplace due torival that of a manned factory in developing countries.

replacement by AI and robots, it is probably the mostAs the production capacity of the factory is increased

reasonable solution that the government provides themby capital investment and employment increase becausewith public service work and pay wages.

products sell well, the demand gradually decreases with

The number of teachers at elementary schools, junior

the popularization of the products, and it will behigh schools, and high schools are 890,000 combined.

inevitable to curb the production until the accumulated

The number of teachers at national, public, and private

stock of products is sold. It is one of the merits ofuniversities is 180,000. If they are doubled, more than 1

unmanning factories to be able to solve this “stock

million employment opportunities will be created. The

circulation,” that is, the classical economic cycle. For

number of caregivers, nursery school teachers, andthe smart AI, looking ahead for demand should be quite

nurses should also be doubled. Graduate students

easy, and it can avoid troubles such as shortening

engaged in research can receive a generous scholarship.

working hours and dismissal of temporary workers,

The

which are why stock circulation can be avoided.

only

optionistoincrease

employment

opportunities for other public services and provide a

The average production cost (the sum of the fixedplace to work for those who want to work but have lost

cost and the raw materials and fuel cost per a product)

the place to. In addition, access to education, medical

will undoubtedly decrease since the labor cost is nearlycare, nursing care, and other public services should be

zero. In other words, the marginal cost of production ismade free.

zero. What about the costs required outside theIn the administrative reform, the top priority wasproduction site, such as for advertisement, sales,

placed on reducing the number of civil servants. The

finance, planning, general affairs, and clerical work

number of teachers at elementary, junior high and highsuch as human resources and labor management? First,

schools, and the number of teachers at national,

since the Internet will be the mainstream of advertisingprefectural, and private universities are now gradually

media, advertising costs will certainly go down. Muchdecreasing. Why was it necessary to reduce the numberof the office work will be taken over by AI. Humanof civil servants? Needless to say, it is due to theresources and labor management will be unnecessary,

government’s fiscal rebuilding (reduction of the fiscal

and finance is AI’s strongest point among everything.

deficit).

However,

thanks

to

the

4

th

Industrial

Work such as general affairs and planning will be

Revolution, a substantial increase in tax revenues willsolved in real-time by AI, based on its memorization of

be achievable, and the government will have room for

all the past documents of the company and its complete

increasing public servants with abundant financial

familiarity with the current state of politics andresources. To employ people who have lost their jobs

economy. As a result, most of the clerical work will bebecause of unmanning of factories as civil servants andunnecessary.

to have them contribute to the enhancement of public
services

will

not

only

be

an

unemployment

5. Medical care,countermeasure but also make this country happierlegal affairs, and artificial

intelligenceplace to live in through improvement of the quality of

According to the joint research by Nomura Researcheducational services, promotion of research, and safety

Institute and the University of Oxford, doctors areand security of the socially vulnerable.

categorized as an “irreplaceable” occupation, but an

It will be no longer necessary to relocate factories

event occurred that would overturn this. According tooverseas for cheap labor. Capital investment required

NHK News on August 4, 2016, the University offor unmanning a factory will be enormous, but asTokyo’s Institute of Medical Science made IBM’s

202

Chapter 6

Is Economic Growth Everything?

artificial intelligence “Watson” learn more than 20

questions about his/her medical history. During oral

million medical papers and more than 17 million

questions by a doctor, a patient is in an extremely

drug-related

genetic

nervous mental state. It is not Dr. Watson but a human

information of a cancer patient, to have it infer the type

doctor who can relieve the nerve and receive honestof cancer and candidate therapeutic drugs.

answers from the patient, after all.

information,

and

gave

it

When they inputted relevant diagnostic information

The surgical assistance robot “Da Vinci” has also

including the genetic information of a leukemia patient

been frequently used in urinary-related surgery. Da

who did not respond to anticancer drug treatment in

Vinci’s duty is to assist a surgeon with surgery only, andWatson, it diagnosed the patient with a specific type of

it is a surgeon who performs surgery. Thanks to Da

leukemia that the doctor in charge had not remotely

Vinci,

thought in just 10 minutes, and moreover, it showed adramatically.

whochangedthemedicine

accuracyofsurgeryhas

increased

Lawyers’ work will also be replaced by AI. There

prescription to be combined with the cancer drugs. The
patient

therecoveredwill soon be a time when Lawyer Watson memorizes

comfortably and was discharged in a few months.

theCompendium

of

Basic

Laws

and

judicial

While AI increases the accuracy of a doctor’s

precedents, searches the relevant past cases and laws

diagnosis and prescription, it does not make doctors

related to the case concerned, and writes an argument

unnecessary. Once various examination data, genetic

justifying the client’s claim. However, it is still

information and others are inputted, ultra-medical

necessarily human lawyers that who expand andDoctor Watson who can diagnose and prescribe better

exchange arguments in court.

than a human doctor will find it a piece of cake to ask a

It is inevitable that AI and robots will dramaticallypatient medical questions. Nonetheless, it must be

alter factories and medical, legal, and other worksites.

uncomfortable for a human patient to listen to and

The question is being asked on how humans willanswer Dr. Watson’s questions. It should not be an

coexist with AI and robots well.

exaggeration to say that it is impossible for anyone
other than human doctors to ask a patient some203

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

204

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

Principal Investigator Ryuichi Ida

205

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

206

Introduction Purpose and Core Elements

207

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

In this research, we examined the third issue of the1) The first is how to view the provided issue of

three issues presented by the IIAS Strategic Committee“measures for a peaceful coexistence based on(ISC) “Measures for a Peaceful Coexistence of World

human-centered values” as a concept? We mustwith Differing Values,” to propose a new index which

consider what the human-centered values are, and what

will replace current various indices.

elements are needed to recognize those values.
Here,

as

a

premise,thetwoconceptsof“human-centered values” and “peaceful coexistence”

Preface
The Strategy Committee, in its report, due to theare included. Between them, we reconstructed the basis

present situation in which there are people, society andof discussion about the latter. This Strategy Committee

states with various ideas, and diverse values and ethics

Report uses the term “peaceful coexistence,” but thisin modern times, and they are not in peacefulconcept of “peaceful coexistence” has the historicalcoexistence, we sought to examine measures to remove

background of an ideology claimed by the former

their causes, and how to pave a way to peaceful

Soviet Union during the Cold War era. The former

coexistence from there. Then, we set a goal to consider

Soviet Union often used this term in the United

an index to replace GDP based on human-centered

Nations,

values, which is an indicator of economic activities

member-states of the United Nations, so instead thewhich is still widely used, and to build a network toterm “friendly relations” was used. The result was thediscuss this globally.

1970 UN General Assembly Resolution 2625 (XXV)

but

it

was

not

acceptedbymanyThis study group was established under such a“Declaration on Principles of International Law

request with the goal of returning to the dignity ofconcerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among

human beings while respecting tolerance, cooperation,

States in accordance with the Charter of the United

and the spirit of reciprocity, and building values for

Nations” (“Friendly Relations Declaration”). This study

peaceful co-living. We examined ideas and elements

group, while understanding the intention of the Strategy

that would form the basis for presenting the factors forCommittee, avoided using such an ideological term,achieving peaceful co-living, arising in Japan, as an

and decided to use the term “peaceful co-living” as aindex. This is a report for that. We will further refine theconcept expressing a content that is one-step further

index elements shown here and the confirmation

advanced in the more modern situation.

method of their effectiveness, and then will construct a

At the same time, we understand “peacefulconcept of a world of peaceful co-living, based on thecoexistence” to have relationships at the inter-state level

existence of diverse values, to disseminate from thein mind, whereas “peaceful co-living” is a broader

International Institute for Advanced Studies.

concept that focuses on people living in nations andsociety as well. The idea of “peaceful coexistence,”
held by the Strategy Committee, not only has

1. Research method
Human beings have made the efforts to overcome

relationships between states in mind, and in that sense

confrontations, disputes, and wars, through ethics,

the traditional international relations, but also clearlymorality, or religion. Similar issues have been taken up

has peace and happiness of the people who live there in

and discussed at various places in the world, so it is notmind,

the purpose of this study group to reconstitute them in“human-centered values.”

when

the

Committee

talks

about

an overview. Rather, based on the results of the researchaccumulated by the members of this study group, we

2)Second,

what

is

the

“index”

basedonfocused on what kind of new index should be created,

human-centered values to take place of GDP?

based on Japanese values with the spirits of tolerance,

Particularly, GDP is an index of a strong economic

cooperation, and reciprocity.

character. When we refer to the index of GDP, it is often
associated with the concept of so-called “development.”

We have three research themes.

However,

208

as

seen

in

the

MDGs

(MillenniumIntroduction Purpose and Core Elements

Development Goals), for example, it became clear thator is in the process of reconstruction in the given

the development itself could not be measured by GDP

country or region. The purpose of the survey, detailed

alone. If that is the case, we will need to extract what

methods, and contents will be described in Chapter 2 ofneed to be considered as elements for the new index.

this report.

What

is

sought

there

is

the

basic

idea

of ”human-centricity,” but in reality, we live in a society4) We will disseminate from Japan to the world the newwith a variety of values towards “human.” The very

index formulated based on the working on the above

issue in the modern world is to have a common

three issues and their underlying ideas, and propose arecognition and common values amid diversity, so it isdiscussion. At this stage, after summarizing thenecessary

mutualresearch, our aim is to promote discussion onunderstanding among various cultures and civilizations.

realization of peaceful co-living by conducting a

That means mutual respect for the basic values of eachpresentation the result in Japanese and English.

to

have

communication

andculture.

The interim report has been published with the aim

Because of this, in considering an “index,” it isof leading domestic discussions at the symposium inparticularly required to explore factors that integrate

Osaka and Tokyo held in 2017. This research will bevarious values such as Japanese, Asian, Islamic, andpresented as a final report to be prepared after various

African values in addition to the values centered on thereactions on the interim report and discussions at theWest, before formulating an index based on those

symposium. We believe we can bring this kind ofelements.

discussion to the world.

However, an index here does not mean one to assess
the current situation like the previous indices, but one

2. Attempt at an index

whose criteria should be met by the time the world

To formulate an index of peaceful co-living, which isreaches the point of peaceful co-living. Therefore, it is

the final goal of the research, we need to keep in mind

essentially a goal-oriented, qualitative index, not acomprehensively

quantitative or numerical index.

previously been used, and construct a concept that is tothevariousindices

that

have

be the basis when disseminating the index from Japan.
3) Even if an index can be formulated, that is not

Therefore, in Chapter 1, we will clarify the concept thatenough. It will be necessary to verify that thewill be the basis. In particular, unless the concept andformulated index truly brings about peaceful co-living.

the framework are theoretically clarified about the issue

The new index is to be applied at various levels on aof the “world of diversity” and the fundamental goal oftrial basis, and the effectiveness of it will be confirmed.

“peaceful co-living,” this research per se is equivalent

As already mentioned, peaceful co-living will not be

to a sandcastle.

truly effective unless it is recognized not only at theIn addition, we extracted the keywords that could beinter-state level but also at the community level andsome bases of the index, including some basic values

resident level. So, by surveying residents by aand concepts suggested so far by the issue. It isquestionnaire, we will investigate what they feel asprovisional in accordance with the purpose of thispeaceful co-living on the one hand, and at the same

report, but I will present it here. These keywords will betime whether they are in fact in a situation where theyexamined further in consideration of the basic concepts

co-live peacefully.

in the next chapter. An index through these will beThis survey will be carried out mainly by members

formulated in future research.

who have abundant experiences in surveying andresearching at the sites of peacebuilding. The target(1) Human (human dignity, human-centricity)

residents will be from regions where peace have

The first important keyword in formulating an index

actually been destroyed or they have experiencedof peaceful co-living is “human.” This is used in words

warfare, and where either peace has been reconstructed

such as “human dignity” and “human-centricity.”209

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

Through the keyword “human,” it is possible to grasp

objective evaluation and judgment as well as its

both human beings as individuals and human beings as

subjective evaluation and judgment. There, the issue

groups (such as communities, regions, and nations).

arises as to how to measure the subjective elements andHowever, it is not easy to explain, for example, what

create an index out of them, from which we will think“human dignity” is. The principles of autonomy,

about what constituent elements are necessary for the

beneficence, non-maleficence, justice, solidarity, andindex, including the keywords mentioned here. In

equity, used in the field of bioethics, may be helpful

addition, ordering is necessary between the index andhere.

its constituent elements.

(2) Development(5) Inclusiveness and exclusivenessNeedless to say, the keyword “development” is not
just

one

from

an

economicview.

of various levels in the world of diversity, we must also

“Development,” which has been used in the United

pay attention to its structural factors. Especially, when

Nations, is now a term used not only for economic

thinking about a world based on diversity, participation

development but also for social development andof those who have been alienated is indispensable.

human development, as shown in recent years’ MDGs

However, we may not ignore the fact that this is the(Millennium

other side of the exclusiveness that real society has.

Development

point

Goals)

of

When discussing peaceful co-living among members

and

SDGs

(Sustainable Development Goals). Here, it is an
important issue how the existence and actuality of(6) Where do we live: place, environment, and time

economic, health, and educational disparities among

In considering the index in the world of diversity, weothers influence development. In addition to theneed to set up a framework to set up indicators about

economic disparities, it is necessary to consider

those of us who are living now and future generations

disparities in areas such as resource access andto live from now, such as the times, regions (domestic,

governance.

foreign, and of Earth), and relationships (international
and intergroup relationships such as those between(3) Identity

ethnic groups). In doing so, we must keep in mind theEach human being has an individual identity. The

time axis in particular. I do not think that they can be

individuality and uniqueness are important not only for

examined uniformly according to simple generalindividuals but also for groups, and they are the source

premises such as society of diversity or the internationalof diversity. Identity is also determined by the relative

community.

relationshipwithothers,

from

which

mutualrelationships surface, and at the same time, theI have shown keywords considered important above,

importance of mutual respect is guided.

but at the present stage, these elements are not ready toNow, the identity held by the group of “nation” hasbe set to form an index yet. In the future research, webeen large so far, but in the present situation where thewould like to clarify these elements along withactivities and actions of not only the states but also theimplementation of the questionnaire survey of residents

non-statein communities that have finished going through agroupsareexpanding

rapidly,theconventional schema of inter-state peace may not

conflict.

necessarily apply. So, we must consider what a nation’s
identity is in itself.
(4) Subjectivity and objectivity
In considering diversity, the existence of self andothers are a prerequisite. Therefore, each subject(including individuals and groups) will search for its

210Chapter 1 Basic Concepts211

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

In this study, we discussed the basic concepts of theFirst, in economic activities, diversity is now

world of diversity, peaceful co-living, and measures, toemphasized as well as integration. Certainly, theconsider the measures for peaceful co-living in the

globalization of the economy promotes integration ofworld of diversity.

economic systems, but among people, products thatmeet their individual tastes are becoming increasingly

1. World of diversity

popular. From the era of mass production of the same

1-1. What is diversity?

varieties, it has shifted to the era in which it is preferredthat many varieties are produced in small quantities.82

Currently, people in the world have diverse values,
ethics, religions, and ideas. Such a diverse world is not

Moreover, maintenance of diversity in the living notnecessarily peaceful. Rather, human beings have an

only has the passive meaning of protecting the natural

inclination

fromenvironment that we have had so far but also thethemselves, and conflicts and confrontations havepositive meaning that diversity in fact enriches it. It canoccurred repeatedly between different groups.

also be said that maintaining diversity in various

torefusesomethingdifferent

Such diversity is by no means classified only by

respects in human society and the global society isstate. Other units include religions, ethnic groups, andindispensable for strengthening our society.

habitats. In fact, in the Middle Ages when conflict arose

While we should set a question on how to achieve

over religion, and when the modern sovereign state waspeaceful co-living in the world of diversity, at the same

established, wars were repeated among the states.

time it even seems that we should set up the issue ofFurthermore, when nationalism spread among people,

how to maintain the diverse world and seek solutions in

hatred between ethnic groups was fueled, and genocide

the first place.

also began to occur. Even after the end of the Cold War,
in

which

democracy,

capitalism,

andsocialism

2. Peaceful co-living

competed over which one of them was superior,

How can we create a world in which there are fewer

frequently there occurred conflicts over differences inwars and conflicts, and diverse groups can peacefully

religion or ethnicity, such as the conflict in former

co-live? In this day and age when nuclear weapon

Yugoslavia and another in Rwanda. Historically,

technology has proliferated and terrorism crosses

humankind has been intolerant of diversity.

national borders, this is an urgent issue.

Such diversity has developed in the history of theFirst, after defining co-living and distinguishing it

people in each region, but it has been greatly affectedfrom its synonym, I will organize concepts linked to anby the difference in the natural environments around theindex of peaceful co-living.

world. That is because people have fostered politics,

2-1. Definition and distinction from synonym

economy, and culture by responding to each of their

I would like to define peaceful co-living while

natural environment. It is suggested that factors must be

contrasting it with its synonym, peaceful coexistence.

taken into consideration, such as differences in the

The term peaceful coexistence is often used tonatural environments, as well as political and economic

describe the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Coldmechanisms of the country and people’s cultures and

War era. There, there are differences in values andthought, in thinking about measures for peacefulphilosophies. Over these differences, both sides insist

co-living in the world of diversity.

on their superiority and confront each other, and fightso that they can expand their sphere of influence. While
policies (e.g., military expansion) to dominate the1-2. A new way of thinking about diversity
Conflicts and confrontations have been repeatedbetweengroupswithdifferent

values,opponent with force and violence are pursued, it is tothought,refrain from the exercise of force or violence, andreligions, and ideologies, but in the contemporary

instead acknowledge the mutual existence.

times, ways of thinking about diversity are changing
82

In the EU which promotes regional integration, theway of integration is expressed as “united in diversity.”

little by little.

212

Chapter 1

Basic Concepts

On the other hand, peaceful co-living can be defined

which human security and human dignity are notas follows. First, even if there are differences in values

secured. Of course, it does not mean that peacefuland philosophies among states and groups, it does notco-living is secured if human security and humanconsider that confrontation exist because of the

dignity are secured. Securing of human security anddifferences. It does not try to impose their own values

human dignity are the minimum requirement foror philosophies on the other. Rather, it accepts thepeaceful co-living.

existenceofvariousvaluesandphilosophies

Human security consists of freedom from poverty(pluralism).

and freedom from fear. The former is about whether

Second, while it believes in its own values andphilosophies,

it

also

respects

thevaluesbasic needs to live as a human being are secured. The

andlatter is about whether they are free from fear regarding

philosophies of the other. This is what co-living means.

everyday safety, or whether they are able to escape fear

Regarding the entire global society as well, it not onlyof domestic extremist violence and attacks from otherrecognizes diversity and accepts the existence ofcountries.

diverse values and philosophies, but also even considers

It can be understood that human dignity is to havethem ideal for the entire global society. These ideas are

one’s individual personality treated as something

included in the term co-living.

precious. It is difficult to judge in practice how much of

Thirdly, because it does not try to impose its own

treatment of individual personalities must be shown tovalues and philosophies on the other, the method of

say that human dignity is secured. Rather, in this case as

co-living cannot be violent, but is peaceful.

well, if we make it a question of what a lack of humandignity is, “treatment like insects” would correspond to

There is also a possibility of a passive co-living
whereby involvement with others is reduced as much asit, which is easier to understand.

possible (e.g., isolationism), but it is difficult to reduce
involvement in modern times when globalization isb. In which groups and between which groups peacefulprogressing, so I will proceed with my discussion byco-living is lacking - subject of the measures -assuming that co-living is an active one.

Co-living is one of self and other. What distinguishes
self from other? Is it the state, ethnicity, religion, class,gender, company that one works for, university one is2-2. Towards peaceful co-living
In this study, to think about measures for peaceful

from, or baseball team that one supports?

co-living in the world of diversity, we first considered

It is not necessarily just one single group that he orwhat was the state in which peaceful co-living was

she has a sense of belonging to. If they identify withlacking, and then at what level (state, religion, habitat,

more than one group, which one of them does oneetc.) peaceful co-living was lacking, or in other words,

identify with strongest?

at what level an examination of measures for peacefulNow, to what extent do people feel that they are

co-living was requested as needs of the global society.

participating in a group that they feel a sense of

After that, we discussed what conditions should bebelonging to? In other words, do they not have thesatisfied to implement the measures for peacefulfeeling that they are left out or excluded? In this case, it

co-living.

is important to make a consideration by distinguishingthe issue of the objective fact on whether they are

a. What is the lack of peaceful co-living?

actually left out, and the subjective issue of feeling that

- Minimum requirements for peaceful co-living -way.

What is the state like in which peaceful co-living isThen, is the group to which one belongs notlacking? In this study, we considered the minimum

discriminated against compared with other groups? In

requirements for peaceful co-living (minimum peaceful

this regard also, it is necessary to distinguish between

co-living) by thinking about this.

subjectivity and objectivity to examine it.

The lack of peaceful co-living means a situation in213

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

c. What are the necessary conditions for realizing

Third, how much cost can we be ready to pay forpeaceful co-living? - elements to be incorporated into

improvement? This is because, even if they realize thatthe measures -peaceful co-living is necessary as a general theory andWhat conditions are necessary to realize peaceful

are aware of intergroup disparities and discrimination as

co-living? This study requires the three elements ofreal problems, when they have to pay for the actual

norm sharing, common awareness to problems, andcosts, their attitudes may change.

preparation to bear the burden of cost. We believe that

Payment costs include cases in which (1) one’s own

these three elements should be incorporated in thegroup of belonging (state or organization) pays for themeasures.

cost and he or she does not directly bear the burden, andI would like to add some explanations. The first(2) one accepts others in their own group of belonging.

condition is whether the minimum value and norm that

A case with the largest cost is when (3) one and his orpeaceful co-living is necessary are shared with eachher family enter a group of others, or are asked forother. That is because there are also groups and people

consent to do so. In this case, they may lose theirwith a recognition that it is not necessary to co-live withidentity, and it involves a big mental burden.

others, especially with certain other groups. It is thedegree of tolerance with respect to the existence of

3. Towarsa peaceful co-living

others. We can say that it is a major premise for taking- Key concepts and specific indices -the measures.

(1)

The second condition is whether they recognize thatThe

minimum

requirementsforpeacefulco-living, (2) the targets of the measures, and (3) the

there is a disparity or discrimination between their own

necessarygroup of belonging and that of others. In other words, itconsidered in order to think about measures foris about whether they recognize that some improvement

peaceful co-living, constitute the three dimensions ofmeasures are necessary for peaceful co-living. It is themeasures for peaceful co-living. The correspondence

sharing of recognition about the existence of a problem.

between key concepts (this chapter) and specific indices

There are quite diverse groups of people in the world,(Chapter 2, major questionnaire items and middle

and whether or not they have a common understanding

items) in each dimension can be summarized as Table

as to which units (state, ethnic, religious, or class) haveC-1 (pp: 234- 235).

unfairness or inequality in them influences the effectsof the measures greatly.

214

conditions

forco-living,

which

we

Chapter 2 New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan215

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

method and the qualitative method.

1. Objectives of opinion survey
As described in Chapter 1 of this report, it is an

Based on these conclusions, proposed byDr.

extremely serious issue for the modern international

Daisaku Higashi, who had an experience of conducting

community whether different countries can co-exist

a questionnaire survey in post-conflict countries, theand whether different political forces, ethnic groups,

study group created consciousness survey questionaires

and tribes within aforstate can realize co-live in a

conflict-affected

regionresidents.

Thepeaceful manner.. “Not being able to co-live”

consciousness survey consist of three elements. The

eventually encompasses the risk of falling into afirst is about consciousness concerning safety andmilitary conflict, and if it actually becomes a conflict,security of individual residents. This component will

the safety, life, and dignity of the people living there

grasp

will be threatened from the ground.

including sense of fulfillment of basic needs, fear ofpeople’s perception of safety and peace,

Then, in what way can we recognize whether people

daily safety, fear against domestic extremists, and fear

are respecting each other’s life and dignity, and are

and caution against attacks from other countries. The

being able to co-live? Is it possible to create an index

second component is identity survey. This part willthat recognizes the degree of co-living? Will making

investigate to what extent the participant feels thatsuch an index help to analyze what is hindering

he/she is participating in the decision-making or

co-living and what promotes it? The “Measures foralienated from his or her affiliations, such as family,

Peaceful Co-living in the World of Diversity” study

community, region, local government, state, andgroup has been discussing this problem several times.

company. The third is a survey to grasp people’s

As a result, it was argued that

we could measureattitude to others.

This part will

covers tolerance inthe degree of co-living and risk of a military conflict bycases where your family members might get marriage

conducting a common consciousness survey in thewith somebody from other political, ethinic, andtarget area just like the risk of vascular disease (heartreligious groups.

disease, cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction, etc.)
can be measured by questionnaire survey.

2. Features of this survey

Specifically, it was agreed that “consciousness survey

The main feature of this survey is, first, to investigate(questionnaire survey) items” will have components

the residents’ consciousness in the conflict-experienced

such as , A) the degree of safety of themselves, B) the

countries/regions and prepare the consciousness survey

degree of their participation in decision-making in thedata on ethnic groups and tribes.

group they belong to and their identity (the degree ofConventionally, there was a problem that domestic

how much their dignity is respected), C) the degree ofconflicts lacked these data. Of course, for quantitative

tolerance and co-living with different countries anddata on military conflict, data such as Uppsala Armedpeople with different identities (others), etc. It would

Conflict Data by Uppsala University in Sweden is

aim to grasp how

widely used. However, this data only measures thepeople perceive their situation

subjectively.

objective intensity of conflict (represented by theOn the other hand, it was confirmed that it isnumber of dead and others), and data that focusesonimportant to have not only quantitative grasp with suchthe subjective perception of people living there andquestionnaire survey but to dispatch experts who will

enable different regions of the world to be comparedgo the country to conduct qualitavie field research.

has

She/hepolitically,

subjective perceptions, at most, there are only results ofeconomically, and historically, and analyze why the

consciousness surveys carried out as a consignment ofcountry has succeeded in a long-term peaceful co-living

UN organizations or on extension lines of individual

and why other countries failed. For this reason, we

field surveys by each case such as different countries

will

conductananalysisconcluded that it is desirable to conduct thesimultaneous parallel processing of the quantitative

216

not

been

developed

worldwide.

RegardingChapter 2

and regions.83

New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan

many related fields.

The proposed survey is original in respect ofFirst of all, peacebuilding is an important theme insystematically investigating subjective perceptions ininternational relations research and Japanese foreign

the conflict-experienced countries/regions and making

policy, and this survey will prepare essential data to

it into a database, and it contributes greatly to conflict

improceresearch in the world.

backed by data from the fields.

Secondly, conducting consciousness surveys aroundthe conflicted

regions

is accompanied by a great

policyonpeacebuilding,

Next, the study will contribute topromotion of

dialogue withdiscussions

regional studies. The

researchers

danger, and residents may not answer easily toparticipating in this research are diverse, and specialists

consciousness surveys due to conflict areas. However,in each region; thus it will enhance regional studies asin this survey, many of the study group members havewell.

abundant

field

conflict is relatively low and coexistence (or peaceful

work;therefore it is possible to conduct a consciousness

co-living) between diverse groups has been established.

survey on site. The fact that numerous researchers inOn the other hand,

this studyg group have experiences of conducting there

coexistence is collapsing. By comparing the situation

field researches in conflicted states is a big feature of

between these different regions, it

this research.

comparison and dialogue among the respective regional

Thirdly, we will widely release the results obtained bystudies.

the consciousness survey inconflicted regions as a

Lastly, Mr. Ida, the representative of this research who

researchers worldwide. Traditionally,

had been instructing us as a chairperson of the study

even in Japanese research institutes, database creationgroup since 2015, took office as president of Shiga

has been promoted for economic data, mainly in

University, one of the prominent national universies inJapanese economy, and they have been used a lot by

Japan from April 2016, and prepared the establishment

abroad researchers, making a certain contribution.

of “Faculty of Data Science” (established in April 2017).

However, frankly speaking, such contributions are

It is expected that the results of this survey will belimited to the fields of economics and businesspublicized internally and externally from the data bankadministration,

based in the Faculty of Data Science at Shiga University.

experiences

database for

and

in

of

working

conflictstudy,

on

Japanese

In some countries and regions, the level ofresearchers were rather often database consumers. In

Therefore,

this survey,

there are regions where
will promote

the results of this survey will be publishedby preparing the consciousness survey

in both Japanese and English, with visually appealing

data of the residents in the conflicted regions, we will

2D and 3D graphs, created by the Faculty of Data

create a database of consciousness surveys andScience, and will be distributed to theworld.

contribute to the world.
4. Survey plan
3. Impact on society this survey can possess andIn the future, we will submit an application form fordissemination of datacompetitive funds, and if it gets adopted, we can obtain

This research is to conduct a survey on residents’a financial basis for this research. Below is a temporary

consciousness around conflict areas and can beplan if the application passes.

regarded as basic research for promoting research in
4-1. Countries and regions to be specifically surveyedThis research is planning to survey the following nine83

For example, regarding the questionnaire survey of conflict areas,
there is a survey in Afghan and East Timor that Dr. Daisaku Higashi
conducted in 2008 (refer to Challenges of Constructging Legitimacy
in Peacebuilding (Routledge 2015) . By a consciousness survey on
about 300 people in each country, quantitative data on politicalsettlement, coexistence with enemies, recognition to foreign troops,
etc. was grasped, and by combining that quantitative survey andqualitative survey, possibilities and methods of a new settlement
process in Afghanistan were discussed.

countries, and from the comparative study, we will
analyze factors that make co-living possible and factorsthat make co-living difficult.
1) Cases where peaceful co-living is relatively
successful (Tanzania, East Timor, Lebanon)

217

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

2) Cases that lie between co-living existence andeach occupy half of them, it has maintained peace sinceconflict (Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),

its independence and is known as the country that is

Mindanao, Tunisia)

most peaceful and continuously stable in Africa. What

3) Cases where co-living does not go well and militaryis the reason that co-living is going well? Centeringconflict persists (South Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria

around Mr. Yoichi Mine specializing in Africa, while(survey planned in Turkey with Syrian refugees))

conducting historical, political, and economic analyses
based on field survey, our study group will also conduct

4-2. Plan for 2018

our own consciousness survey in collaboration withA) Interviews and negotiation for field survey at theuniversities in Tanzania and clarify as to why co-living

United Nations Headquarters in New Yorkis maintained.

In order to make such field survey possible, first of all,Principal Investigator Ida and I, who have network withC) Field survey: East Timor (case where peacefultheco-living is successful in Asia): Four weeks of 2018

UnitedNations

Headquarters,

willconduct

interviews with UN political officers and executives ofEast Timor who fulfilled separation and independence

the department in charge of each country at the UN

from Indonesia in 1999 has been promoting nationwide

Headquarters in New York. In parallel with thedevelopment with the support of UN PKO missions.

interview, we will also ask for cooperation in the field

Despite the political crisis in 2006, after that, while thesurvey to be carried out in the future.

government and the opposition forces (the opposition

Dr. Daisaku Higashi has so far built a cooperative

party) compete in the election, they maintained a

relationship with UN Department of Peacekeeping

democratic way and continued an inclusive political

Operations, Department of Political Affairs, Department

process, such as the government actively adoptingof Field Support, Peacebuilding Support Office at theopinions of the opposition party. As a result, at the end

UN Headquarters, obtained the recommendation lettersof 2012, UN Mission withdrew. Even then, politicalby

Assistantstability has been maintained, and it is said to be one ofSecretary-General, and has conducted numerous survey

the most successful cases in peacebuilding by thein the field. In the summer of 2016, a survey on the

United Nations in recent years. Dr. Higashi will bepeace process of South Sudan was conducted in Kenya

responsible for conducting research in East Timor as heand Ethiopia. After announcing its contents in various

conducted questionnaire surveys to a total of 300

places in Japan and at the Academic Council on UN

people at three locations in East Timor in 2008. He

System and Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK), inwill

November 2016, Dr. Higashi made a presentationat thecooperation of students of the University of Dili in the

UN Headquarters in New York, jointly hosted by thecapital city of East Timor. At the same time, he will also

Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Department ofconduct qualitative survey on the cooperation and

Political Affairs, Department of Field Support, andcoexistence relationship between the government andPeacebuilding Support Office.

opposition parties.

theUnder-Secretary

Generalandconductaconsciousness

surveywiththe

By utilizing these network, the proposed survey willbeconducted

withcooperationofimportantD) Field survey: Lebanon (case where peacefuldepartments dealing with peace and war issues at UN

co-living is progressing successfully in the Middle

headquarters.

East): Four weeks of 2018
After suffering from the civil war of 15 years,B) Field survey: Tanzania (case where peaceful

Lebanon did a thorough allocation system (quarterco-living is successful in Africa): Four weeks of 2018

system) on ministers and senior officials of eachTanzania is a country that was formed by the merger

ministry by 18 denominations after the end of the civilof “Tanganyika (Mainland)” and Zanzibar “(Islands)”

war in 1990, and they have been maintaining peace byin 1964, and despite Christianity and Muslim believers

having the government share power. We will conduct

218

Chapter 2

New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan

both qualitative surveys and consciousness surveys in

Mindanao since 2006, and in particular, JICA has been

Lebanon, which is said to have achieved peace throughengagedthe most thorough power sharing in the Middle East,

peace-related participators through social-economicand explore the actual situation on co-living. Middle

development support. While Mr. Duterte takes office as

East expert Ms. Hisae Nakanishi will lead the survey.

President of the Philippines and the influence on peacein

activities

topromoteprocess is drawing attention,andquantitative

wedialogueofwill conductE) Data analysis to be conducted centering around

qualitative

surveys

with

full

the Faculty of Data Science, Shiga University: As

cooperation of JICA. (We will conduct surveys whileneeded in 2018

looking for guidance, advice, and introduction from

As soon as the data is gathered in the above three

JICA experts who have experience working incountries, we will analyze at the Faculty of Data

Mindanao for JICA as an advisor to the peace process.)

Science, Shiga University and summarize the results
into 2D and 3D graphics, and we will announce it to theC) Field survey: Tunisia (the in-between case in thepress and others as needed.

Middle East): Four weeks of 20194-3. Plan for 2019

Middle East, but as Syria shifted to a civil war andA) Field survey: Democratic Republic of the Congo

Egypt became a military dictatorship, Tunisia continued(DRC: the in-between case in Africa): Four weeks of

its transition to a democratic government, and while

2019

there were threats such as terrorism, different sects and

Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced a longpolitical groups coexisted, and minimum security andcivil war and the UN PKO missions were dispatchedpeace is maintained. Utilizing the fact that our Principalfrom

A social change called “Arab Spring” occurred in thethe

Investigator Mr. Ida has a network with the universities

anti-government armed forces M23 who took charge of

1999.

The

battlecontinued

within Tunisia, we will conduct consciousness surveys andthe eastern part, and it had been difficult to build peace

qualitative surveys in Tunisia under cooperation andand stability throughout Congo. As a result of the UN

collaborating with such universities.

Force Intervention Brigade being dispatched from 2013
and fighting against M23 along with government forces,4-4. Plan for 2020

they are currently in a state of lull, and the capitalA) Field survey: South Sudan (case where battle

Kinshasa has developed that you would hardly

continues in Africa): Four weeks of 2020

recognize from five years ago. We will conduct theSouth Sudan fulfilled independence in 2011, but in thesurvey with the cooperation of UN PKO missions

summer of 2013 President Kiir dismissed Vice

(MONUSC) and JICA who has a large-sized office. The

President Machar, and a massive battle broke out

survey will be conducted mainly by Mr. Mine who has

between the Machar, who responded strongly about it,experiences of surveys on DRC and is fluent in French.

and the Kiir in December 2013. South Sudan enteredinto a civil war state, and more than 2 million peopleB) Field survey: Mindanao (the in-between case inbecame refugees and more than 50,000 people died. InAsia): Four weeks of 2019

August 2015, President Kiir and Vice President Machar

The Mindanao region of the Philippines, whichreached a peace agreement, which seemed to regain

suffered from decades of conflict. In March 2014, thepeace once, but again in July 2016 the two sides

Government of the Philippines and Mindanao’s largest

collidedanti-government armed forces Moro-Islamic Liberation

dismissed again, and the peace process is in chaos.

Front (MILF) signed the Comprehensive Agreement on

Regarding the peace process in South Sudan, since Dr.

the Bangsamoro and took a big step forward to resolve

Daisaku Higahsi surveyed the neighboring Ethiopia andthe Mindanao conflict. In line with Malaysia, Japan has

Kenya in the summer of 2016 with the full cooperation

been actively participating in peace mediation ofof the AU special representative of UN and UN special

219

militarily.

VicePresident

MacharwasC: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

envoys for Sudan and South Sudan, and have a track

Higashi will mainly analyze the data. We willrecord of reporting the results in the NHK Close-up

summarize the meaning of the data in reports and books,

Gendai and the magazine Gaikou (Diplomacy), etc., heannounce them through the press and the Internet, andwill plan and implement surveys with the cooperation

at the same time, make a theoretical presentation aboutof the UN PKO missions.

peaceful co-living. In making a theoretical presentation,
we will summarize the final contents while receivingB) Field survey: Afghanistan (case where battle

adviceandrecommendations

fromscholarsofcontinues in Asia): Four weeks of 2020

international politics Ms. Akiko Fukushima and Mr.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime collapsed due toHiroshi Nakanishi, economist Mr. Akira Kousaka, andthe attack of the United States in 2001 andothers who are also key members of the study group.

peacebuilding of the country was started. However, theoffense by anti-government armed forces has been

5. Consciousness survey (questionnaire survey)

restored since around 2005, and now it is considered toitems

be that 70% of the country’s territory is dominated by

These are what we have at the moment. We will

the anti-government armed forces. For Afghanistan,continue to improve further. In practice, first, we will

Doshisha University, where our Principal Investigator

make a unified version in English, and then translate it

Mr. Ida serves as a visiting professor, has accepted

into local languages and use it.

dozens of graduate students from Afghanistan, and they
have returned to Afghanistan after completing the5-1. Aim

master’s degree. Ms. Hisae Nakanishi and Mr. Ida, who

Regarding each question, basically it is designed on abelong to the Research Center for Peace andfour-point scale that the higher the score, the higher theDevelopment for Afghanistan in Doshia University, will

degree of peaceful coexistence including human dignity,

conduct the surveys on consciousness, etc. by asking

and the lower the score, the lower the degree of

the Doshisha University Afghanistan alumni.

coexistence. At the end, we have also put in several freeresponse questions. You can see the overall score of theC) Field survey: Syria (case where battle continues

total, and you can also learn about the trends in thatin the Middle East): Four weeks of 2020 (scheduledcountry or region from scores on individual questions.
Also, the relevant question draft is assumed to be ato be conducted with refugees in Turkey)
Regarding Syria, where the civil war continues, it is amodel version created both in Japanese and English andsituation where it is unpredictable whether peace isavailable (used) around the world. However, according

regained even in 2020. If peace has been recovered,to the circumstances of each country, it is possible toconsciousness surveys will be conducted at the site, andomit certain question items in cases where they are too

if that is difficult, we will conduct them with Syrian

sensitive and it is difficult to investigate by asking thoserefugees who have escaped to the neighboring country

questions. (Especially questions about ethnic groups

Turkey. In addition, Dr. Higashi conduted five weeks

and communities may be difficult in some countries.)

researches on Syrian peace process, obtaining special
support from Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy for

5-2. Question sheet

Syria, who was supervisor for Dr. Higashi when they

It is noted at the end of this chapter.

worked together in UN Assistance Mission in
Afghanistan in 2010.

6. Summary
Whether or not peaceful co-living with other people isD) Data analysis to be conducted centering aroundpossible is decisively important in terms of thethe Faculty of Data Science, Shiga University:

management of the state, in terms of the management of

aggregated data summarized in 2020

the organization, and in terms of maintaining the family,

The Faculty of Data Science, Mr. Oshiba, and Dr.

and it should be

220

the most fundamental problem ofChapter 2

New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan

human society. In that sense, the members of this study

study group believes that “we simply cannot give upgroup are fully aware that peaceful co-living can neverpeaceful co-living,”

be easily realized. On the other hand, it is a fact that

impossible, how is it possible for humankind to makehumanity has succeeded in significantly lowering thesomepossibility of military conflicts in the country, at least in

We believe that there is a possibility that this survey

some countries, by introducing a system “from bullet towill be an important survey for both the world andvote” by establishing a system called democracy. With

Japan, which has been a peaceful country sinceregard to inter-state wars between states,

we might be

end ofable

international

toreducewars

byutilizingorganizations and international rules. In this sense, the221

Even if complete co-living is

progress in that direction even for a small step?

World War II.

theC: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

Question sheet(Draft)This questionnaire is conducted to aim for “people to have dignity and coexist peacefully (peacefulco-living)” by collecting data that contributes to peaceful coexistence. Your privacy concerning answers is
kept completely. By answering honestly, we believe that it will be possible to grasp the current situationand it will lead to effective measures and policies. We appreciate your cooperation.

Regarding your own participation/involvement in central government, family, company (employer),etc. (political, social, and economic participation)
1) Participation or involvement in the central government
1-A Question: Do you feel that you are participating in the policy and decision-making of the central
government of where you live in?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)1-B Question: Do you feel that the central government of where you are living now listens to yourrequests and opinions and respects them accordingly?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)2) Participation and involvement in family decisions
2-A Question: Do you feel that you are participating in the decision-making of the family to which you
belong?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)2-B Question: Do you feel that the family you belong to listens to and respects your requests andopinions?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)3) Participation and involvement in activities of the company (employer)
3-A Question: Do you feel that you are participating in the decision-making at your place of employment(including when you work at your own company)?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)3-B Question: Do you feel that your place of employment listens to your opinions and requests andrespects them accordingly?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
3-C Question: Do you feel that you are contributing to the economic activity of your place of
employment?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)3-D Question: Do you feel that your place of employment appreciates and respects your ability andexperience?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)222

Chapter 2

New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan

About your own life and happiness4) Minimum living and safety guarantee
4-A Question: Do you feel that you have the minimum amount of clothing you need?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
4-B Question: Do you feel that you are being able to consume the minimum meal you need?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
4-C Question: Do you feel that you have acquired the minimum necessary housing environment?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
4-D Question: Do you feel that you are in an environment where you can receive the necessary education?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
4-E Question: Do you feel that you are in an environment where you can receive the necessary medicalcare?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)4-F Question: Do you currently feel that you are getting the necessary work to live?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)4-G Question: Have you ever lost someone in your family during the past year due to crime, incidents,
attacks, etc.?
(4. No one 3. One person 2. Two people 1. Three or more people)
4-H Question: Have you ever had a burglary or stealing in the past year?
(4. None 3. Once 2. Two times 1. Three times or more)
4-I Question: Do you currently feel that you are being discriminated against by someone?
(4. Not at all 3. Occasionally 2. Often 1. Always)
5) Value to live
5-A Question: Have you ever felt that you were glad to be alive in your recent life?
(4. Very often 3. Occasionally 2. Very little 1. Not at all)
5-B Question: Have you ever felt happy in your recent life?
(4. Very often 3. Occasionally 2. Very little 1. Not at all)
5-C Question: Do you feel that there is hope to keep on living?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
5-D Question: Do you feel happy to keep on living?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)223

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity6) On peaceful coexistence
6-A Question: Do you feel that you can adjust the disagreement with neighbors, people with other
opinions, people with other religions, and people who support other political groups without using
violence?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
6-B Question: Do you feel that you can live peacefully with each other, even though there are differencesin opinion and way of thinking, with neighbors, people with other opinions, people with other religions,and people who support other political groups?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
6-C Question: Do you feel that people in your country are being able to overcome differences of opinion
and live together peacefully?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
(Note: Up to this point is mainly concerned with individual “dignity” and “peaceful coexistence.” From
below, we will enter into issues such as community problems and peaceful coexistence amongcommunities.)

About the community to which you belong
7) About belonging to the community
Other than the country (government) you live in, which of the following organizations or groups feel mostfamiliar to you? (Which community do you think you belong to the most?)A) “Local community including town and village to which you belong”
B) “The smallest of the local governments to which you belong”
C) “Ethnic group to which you belong”
D) “Tribe to which you belong”
E) “Religion to which you belong”

8) About participation in the community
We will ask about the community you belong to the most that you chose above.
8-A Question: Do you feel that you are participating in the policies and decision-making of that
community?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
8-B Question: Do you feel that the community listens to your requests and opinions and respects themaccordingly?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)224

Chapter 2

New Index for Peaceful Co-living and Survey Plan

9) About coexistence and disparity among communities
9-A Question: Do you feel that the community is being able to coexist with other communities without
fighting?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
9-B Question: Do you feel that the community is discriminated from other communities?
(4. Not at all 3. Occasionally 2. Often 1. Always)
9-C Question: Do you feel that the community is placed in an extremely economically poor situationcompared to other communities?
(4. Not at all 3. Occasionally 2. Often 1. Always)
9-D Question: Do you feel that the community is placed in an extremely disadvantageous situation about
education compared to other communities?
(4. Not at all 3. Occasionally 2. Often 1. Always)
9-E Question: Do you feel that the community is placed in an extremely disadvantageous situation withrespect to medical care compared to other communities?
(4. Not at all 3. Occasionally 2. Often 1. Always)

10) About immigration from abroad
10-A Question: Do you agree to accept more foreign immigrants?
(4. Strongly agree 3. Moderately agree 2. Moderately disagree

1. Disagree)

10-B Question: Do you agree with increasing language education to immigrants using government
money?
(4. Strongly agree 3. Moderately agree 2. Moderately disagree 1. Disagree)
10-C Question: Do you feel that increasing the number of immigrants increases the crime rate?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
10-D Question: Will you agree if your child is going to marry an immigrant child?
(4. Strongly agree 3. Moderately agree 2. Moderately disagree 1. Disagree)225

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity11) Coexistence with other countries
11-A Question: Do you feel that your living country has a friendly relationship with neighboring
countries?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)
11-B Question: Is your living country in a war with foreign countries?
(4. Not at all 3. Once in the past 50 years 2. Twice in the past 50 years
1. Three times or more in the past 50 years)
11-C Question: Do you feel that your living country has the possibility of being in a war with foreigncountries in the future?
(4. Not at all 3. Not much 2. A little 1. Very much)
11-D Question: Do you feel that your living country is having history problems with foreign countries?
(4. Not at all 3. Not much 2. A little 1. Very much)
11-E Question: Do you feel that your living country can reconcile history problems with foreigncountries?
(4. Very much 3. Fairly 2. Not much 1. Not at all)226

Concluding Chapter A Tentative Index for Measuring the Degrees ofRealization of Peaceful Co-living

227

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

In the previous three chapters, we clarified the ideas,

evaluation, under each philosophy and principle. The

concepts and perspectives that will be the core ofbasic philosophies, principles and indices are abstract

peaceful co-living. In particular, the discussions haveand general in content; “Interpretation of index

centered so far on the peaceful parallel relationship(example)” is meant to explain by showing examples

between sovereign states. On the other hand, thewhat each index measures specifically.

abstract entity that is the state consists of not only the

Below I would like to describe what kind of indicesresidents who spend their daily lives there, those with aare under each basic philosophy and principle, andcitizenship - meaning the citizens - but also people who

what kind of content each index has, by showing

live there including those of a foreign nationality andconcrete examples. Here, to make the whole picture

those with no nationality. Because of this, even wheneasier to grasp, I have shown these three stages in aan apparently peaceful state exists between states, it istable format.

not possible to build a peaceful relationship between
societies

andstatesthat

havevariousvalue

Basic philosophy / principle

perspectives as they are today, unless the peacefulWhen thinking about peaceful co-living, we need toco-living is secure for those who are there. True

think of the philosophies and principles on several

peaceful co-living must be from the viewpoint of thelevels. In this proposal, I present them in four distinct

human beings.

concepts: I. Human dignity, II. Belonging to a group

Therefore, we need to build the indices which are set

and alienation, III. Inter-group relation and IV. Norms

as the final goal of our research from the viewpoints offor peaceful co-living. It means the essential elements

the people who live in the world, the states, and theat the individual level, the relationship between self

communities. In this chapter, I propose concreteand other within the group (community), the (tense)

indices based on the examinations so far.

inter-group relations, the norms for peaceful co-living
to be established and perpetuated.

This index proposal is presented as a necessary
element to achieve peaceful co-living within the world

I. Human dignityof diversity. These indices themselves are the goals.

For peaceful co-living to be established, the dignity

This proposal consists of the three stages of I. Basicof individuals living there must first be respected andphilosophies

III.

maintained. As already mentioned, what is essential inInterpretation of the Indices (examples). “Basic

thinking about the peace in the world of diversity is notphilosophy / principles” shows the philosophies andsimply a non-war relationship between sovereign

principles that will be the foundation for measuring

nations but a peaceful and satisfying life for eachwhether peaceful co-living has been achieved in theresident living there. Therefore, in a world whereworld of diversity. In other words, it shows the value

individual dignity is not respected, even if there is nobasis for making evaluation and judgments by applying

war or tension, you cannot say that peaceful co-living

the indices on site. An index is a criterion for judging

is realized.

whether each philosophy and principle are sufficiently

When in a state of peaceful co-living, human dignity

being applied and satisfied. Put differently, it is aconsists of the three principles of “1. Freedom fromcriterion for judging whether peaceful co-living has

want,” “2. Freedom from fear” and “3. “Recognition as

been achieved for each resident, that is the human

human being.” The concept of “human dignity” is very

beings. We can say that it is to be used to measure how

deep in content, but to put it briefly, it means to beeach person actually feel about whether they aretreated as a human being, that is, a human being mustco-living peacefully (not as a single person but as a

not be treated the same way non-humans are treated,group). That is, it is intended to measure the level ofsuch as dogs, cats, horses or cows. It also means that aachievement of peaceful co-living of the residents byself and another are human beings in the same way,using the indices as concrete elements as axes formeaning that they are equal and must respect each/principles,II.

Indicesand228

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A Tentative Index for Measuring the Degrees of Realization of Peaceful Co-living

other. These also mean that each individual can decidecountry.

for themselves and act on their own will in their daily
lives.

2. Freedom from fear
This is also one of the four kinds of freedom given by
President Roosevelt. He associated this with his

1. Freedom from wantThis basic principle is one of the four kinds ofproposal to reduce arms, but it shows more general

freedom raised as a principle of democracy bycontent in the context of peaceful co-living. Fear arises

President Franklin Roosevelt of the United States inwithin and outside the group. Therefore, the state of1941. Roosevelt meant it as an economic consensus by

security in the group (community) to which one

which every nation would guarantee a sound andbelongs must first be one of safety. It is a necessary

peaceful life for its citizens, assuming a post-war

condition to feel safe to live daily in order to feel atinternational society against the backdrop of thepeace. No matter how materially rich it is, you cannot

Second World War. In the context of peaceful co-living,

say that it is truly peaceful in an unfavorable security.

however, it must mean something wider; it must mean

At the same time, you need to ask whether there is

freedom from want at an individual level, not just

⑦ any fear of violence from other groups. This can belimited to the national level.

considered in a multilayered manner. First, security

Therefore, these indices measure the degree of

within a group is often broken by confrontation,

freedom with respect to whether the four fundamental

conflicts, and battles among multiple smaller groups.

needs are met; that is, whether a stable life is secured in

Simply put, confrontation and conflict between

the four points of securing (1) clothes, food and house,different groups (communities) within one country are(2) maintained health, (3) the right to education, andantonyms of peace. These so-called tribal conflicts(4) employment opportunities. The indices can be used

occurred frequently after the Cold War, and the present

for concrete measurement by asking whether: 1) thesituation is one in which they have not been solved

minimum clothes and food are secured, 2) minimum

easily. There are too many examples of cases where

living environment is secured, 3) necessary medical

despite a state being integrated or unified once, it does

care is available, 4) basic education is available, and 5)

not continue, and the state goes back to conflicts.

jobs that earn minimum living expenses are available.

Conflicts between ethnic and tribal groups within a

These are all included in the UN Millenniumcountry are hard to resolve for historical and emotional

Development Goals and Sustainable Development

reasons, which often make them harder to resolve thanGoals as well. In particular, the former aims at

international conflicts.

eradicating the world's poverty, and it shares acommonality

with

the

foundationof

In addition, there are inter-state wars when talking

Japan’sabout fear of violence from other groups. This kind ofConstitution in its “minimum standards of wholesome

war ends at the conclusion of a peace treaty for theand cultured living.”

time being, and there is a possibility that the peaceful

Looking back on the current conflict areas andstate may be recovered. However, this index does not

post-conflict areas, it is clear that these basic needs are

simply mean war. As with the Charter of the United

not met. In domestic conflicts between ethnic groups,

Nations, threats of war, such as missile and nuclear

because of inequality and discrimination among thetests, should also be included.

ethnic groups, they have not been able to secure theThus, freedom from fear needs to be secured in abasic needs listed here. Of course, not only during themultilayered manner.

conflict but also in peace building after the conflict,satisfaction of these needs at the level of each resident

3. Recognition as human being

lead to stability of the area along with prevention ofThis principle consists of the indices of: ⑦ being

reuse of armed forces, as well as resolution of conflicts

recognized from others (raison d'être), ⑧ whether

between different ethnic and tribal groups within thethere is discrimination or inequality from others (no229

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

discrimination), ⑨

exclusiveness of the group to which one belongs or

freedom to live with dignity(respect for personality), and ⑩ freedom to live withwishes to belong.

dignity (right to self-determination). As stated above,
to recognize each person as a human being is also to

4. Identity

respect the human dignity. The fact that ethnic and

Identity has four indices. The bases of judgment are:tribal confrontations in recent years leave no choice for⑪ The group of belonging to which a self sees

the people but refuge to another country or escape theirthemselves to belong (self-perception); when a self

area of residence as a domestic evacuee falls under thisbelongs to multiple groups due to the multiple criteria,

category.

for example, of ethnicity, religion, or nationality,

Index “⑦raison d'être” asks, for example, 8) whether

whether they perceive any of the group to be ⑫ theyour existence is ever ignored by another, 9) whether

most important group of belonging (self-perception);

you feel happy to be alive, and 10) whether you havemoreover, ⑬ which group do others see the self tohope to keep on living. “Living” is the minimum

belong to; and ⑭ which is the most important groupcondition, but it must have a proactive meaning. Itof belonging among the multiple groups to which themeans that a society that does not allow you to haveself belongs or can belong?

hopes for the future along with an affirmation of yourFor example, 15) What kind of group do you

own present existence is not one that is peaceful. Index

recognize yourself as belonging to? can possibly have“⑧ no discrimination” asks 11) whether you facevarious criteria and can be multilayered. In other words,

discrimination or unequal treatment from others? This

we can have various ideas including local community /is an index of peaceful co-living, as well as the basic

area / municipality, ethnic, tribal and religious groups,

principle of human rights protection. It has alreadyjob type / class/ hierarchical groups, age / generational

been made clear during the Second World War that agroups, gender groups, ideological groups, and income

state in which human rights are not protected is notgroups. Usually one belongs to not only a single one ofpeaceful. Index “⑨ respect for personality” is on thethem but also to multiple groups. Therefore, not only

extension of dignity, and the issue is 12) whether you

this but also the index “⑫ self-perception towards the

feel that your personality is respected. That means

most important group of belonging” is the key as anpeople living like people. Index “ ⑩right toindex. Since it is closely tied to your life and behavior,self-determination” is an important core concept of

it may change from the past, present and the future.

dignity, in which 13) whether you can decide for

Therefore, first of all, 16) after answering about the

yourself and 14) whether the conditions are met inmost important group out of the multiple groups oforder for you to decide on your own are the criteria forbelonging, the questions of 17) whether the mostjudgment. For this, you need to be able to freely decide,important group today is the same as it was 10 years

judge and act with your own will, such as on whether

ago and 18) whether the important group of belonging

you have options and information to live a life andis the same as that of their parents.

whether freedom of speech, thought and creed is secure.

AcriterionofidentityisnotlimitedtoMerely living alone - in other words, “being made alive”

self-perception. It is also extremely important thatalone - cannot truly make people live. That isothers perceive an individual or a group to belong topersonality and dignity.

which group. Again, one may have single or multiple
groups of belonging. In the meantime, from theII. Belonging to a group and alienation

viewpoint of others, the first stage is 19) which group

The second principle constitutes the indices based on

one belongs to, and based on this, whether the person

which group the self belongs to and whether the self isbelongs to multiple groups and 20) which group others

obstructed within the group. The issue of belonging to

see the person to consider the most important groupa group and alienation lie in the identities of both the

may affect how responses will be given. For example,

self and the relevant group, and the inclusiveness andamong people with the same nationality, when each

230

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A Tentative Index for Measuring the Degrees of Realization of Peaceful Co-living

other person judges another to belong to a group based

considered on the time axis. That is, even if the senseon reasons such as the person having a differentof participation and perception of contribution isreligion or coming from a different ethnic group may

involved

give rise to a sense of friendship or hostility.

decision-making, the self may be excluded from the

in

the

given

group’simportantimportant decision-making process due to a change inthe leader or the administration, change in the systems

5. Group inclusiveness and exclusiveness
Each group, cohort and community have itsof

economyandsociety,andchangeintheidiosyncratic inclusiveness and exclusiveness. Here,international community’s situation. On the contrary,four indices come to our mind: ⑮ satisfaction withthose who were excluded until then may begin to play

the making of policies and decisions in the group ofa central role. Nevertheless, such temporal change does⑯

in

not always produce tension. If a process of democratic

decision-making within the group of belonging

changeover or changes are secured, it does not lead to(perception of alienation), ⑰ degree of respect in

exclusivity.

belonging,degreeofparticipation

decision-making within the group of belonging, ⑱
level of contribution to decision-making and its

III. Inter-group relation

implementation in the group of belonging (asWhen thinking about peace, the most important thing

self-perceived), and ⑲

level of contribution tois the inter-group relations. In particular, relationships

decision-making and its implementation in the group of

between large groups, that is, the groups at the national

belonging (as perceived by others). We can think oflevel can grow into a friendly relation or lead to war.

this as the degrees to which a self participates in the

What determine this relationship are 6. Perception ofgroup’s decision-making and activities. The higher thedifferences between groups and 7. relationships

degree to which participation is permitted, the higher

between differing groups.

the degree of inclusion is. Conversely, it means that the6. Perception of differences between groups

lower the degree of participation, the more excluded

What constitutes an index in the establishment of athat person is. Naturally, the stronger the perception

relationship of peaceful co-living is the ⑳ Perceptionthat they are participating, the more suppressed theof differences between groups of belonging and ㉑

hostility and tension. The more a person feels that they

Perception of inequality between groups. The stronger

are excluded, the lower the sense of belonging, which

this perception, the harder peaceful co-living. The

will make them have a passive attitude in maintaining

weaker, the larger the degree of co-living as the sense

the said group’s shared values. From there, seeds ofof identity increases. Therefore, with respect to thetension and conflicts sprout. Therefore, questions forindex ⑳ “Perception of differences between groups,”

measuring the respective indices would be, for example,

for example, with the question 26) In which respects

21)

and

does you perceive the differences between the self’s

decision-making of the (most important) group ofgroup of belonging and other’s group of belonging,

belonging, 22) Are you participating in decision

question such as the following can be conceived:-making in your (most important) group of belonging,“When interests conflict, would you perceive the23) is your voice heard in your (most important) groupdifferences?”; “When you have different ideas andof belonging, 24) Are your opinions and actions helpful

ways of thinking, would you perceive the differences?;in the decision making and implementation in your

“When you have biological characteristics, would you(most important) group of belonging, and 25) Are yourperceive the differences?”; “When you have different

opinionsthenationalities, would you perceive the differences?” youdecision-making and implementation in your (mostrecognize the difference when you have different

important) group of belonging by others.

biological characteristics?” These differences do not

What we have to keep in mind is that measurements

invite tension or a war immediately just because thewith these indices can change when they are

differences exist or are large. If diversity is positively

Are

you

and

satisfiedactionswithhighlythepolicyevaluatedin231

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

and actively seen, the differences will not lead directly

questions is no, the greater the possibility of peaceful

to conflict, but on the contrary, diversity will also

co-livingcreate new creativity. However, the lower the tolerance

Conversely, the more likely the answer is yes, thefor diversity, the more in the negative direction

lower the stability.

perception of these differences will work, and theWhether indices ㉓ “View on differing groups” istension will occur and expand.

one of among 31) division of roles (mutual

What can be a cause of this tension and can give risecomplementarity), 32) a relationship of strong andto a synergistic effect on its expansion is the index

weak, 33) judgment of good and bad, and 34) whether“perception of inequality between groups.” The

you like it or not, rising of tension can be different andquestion to this is, 27) in what ways do you strongly

this at the same time is a measure of friendship.

towards

thepresent

andthefuture.

feel a sense of inequality or discrimination between thegroupsofbelongingofyourself

andothers?

IV. Norms for peaceful co-living

Specifically, they are; “Do you feel a sense of

To build and maintain peaceful co-living, it isinequality or discrimination when economic disparity

conceivable that it is necessary to formulate an

is noticeable?”; “Do you feel a sense of inequality orobjective norm of peaceful co-living and comply withdiscrimination when there is a difference in politicalit. This does not necessarily need to be a strictly legal

forces?”; “Do you feel a sense of inequality or

norm (international law or domestic law) but may be adiscrimination when there is a strong societal

moral code of ethics. Nonetheless in the international

discrimination?;” and “Do you feel a sense ofcommunity, the legal norms have no compulsory

inequality or discrimination when there is a differencefunction in the true sense. So, what is important in thein medical and educational opportunities?”

norm is that it is recognized as an objective social norm
and that it is observed. It means that there must be

7. Relationships between differing groups

consciousness on social norm and compliance. Among

As for domestic tensions and ideas, the differences

them, when thinking of peaceful co-living, the core

are recognized as seen in the index ⑳, and as stated innorms that are indices are: ㉔ non-violence, ㉕㉑, it will be possible that they will occur and expand

tolerance and ㉖ responsibility. We can say thatby a rise of discrimination and inequaltiy. However, if

sharing of these norms is the foundation of peaceful

there is no contact or negotiation between the two

co-living.
Regarding the index “ ㉔groups, it will not necessarily lead to new tensions or

non-violence,” it isescalation of the issue. Interrelationships and mutual

important to ask 35) the question of whether violence

activities between groups lead to conflict and war.

should not be exercised even if there is a conflict. That

Because of this, the indices here are: ㉒ Intergroupis, the existence of a situation where conflict can beconfrontation / conflict in past, present and future; andresolved by peaceful means is important. Chapter VI of㉓ View on differing groups.

the Charter of the United Nations

The former index takes into account the time axis as“Peaceful settlement of disputes” shows this exactly.

already suggested above. For this reason, the following

For this, unless the war / military exercise as a last

questions should be asked; 28) Have you everresort is ultimately denied, the index “㉕ tolerance” isexperienced a war or a violence incident in the past;also about the norm of 36) whether to not exclude

29) Are there any important conflicts currently; and 30)

people entering from outside but accept them. It means

Are there rumors of a potential war or violent incident

the more tolerant a state, group, or community, thein the future? Of course, just because there was or is a

closer it is to peaceful co-living.

war in the past or present, it does not necessarily mean

The last index “㉖ responsibility” is the idea thatthat there is not or will not be any war or the like in thecompliance is accompanied by a certain degree of

future. However, this index measures the possibility of

responsibility. Specifically, a sense of cost for peace is

conflict. Therefore, the more likely the answer to these

indispensable. 37) For that reason, to comply with the232Concluding Chapter

A Tentative Index for Measuring the Degrees of Realization of Peaceful Co-living

norm of peaceful co-living, the question will be asked“difference,” it is not easy to “co-live” by overcoming

whether cost can be borne and how much can be borne.

actually different values, intention / judgment, behavior

This viewpoint of cost for peaceful co-living ispatterns, lifestyle, etc. However, if we cannot co-live in

extremely important, where there are questions as to;diversity, it will lead to the destruction of humankind.

“Can you bear the cost to comply with the norms ofWith this in mind, we must recognize, apply andpeaceful co-living at the national level?; Can you bear

implement indices of peaceful co-living.

the cost to comply with the norms of peaceful co-living

It is important remember that peaceful co-living inat the group and local community level?; and Can you

the world of diversity is not something that imposes abear the cost to comply with the norms of peacefulburden of effort, cost, etc., that is, diversity

co-living at the individual level?

encompasses various creative possibilities which were
did not exist so far. Our efforts will continue, as we

Peace cannot be obtained without such efforts. We

imagine large flowers of diversity blooming proudly inmust recognize this again. In particular, in the world of

the future earth society. This proposal is indices and adiversity, to start with a psychological burden on

goal to advance to such a future society.

233

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

Table C-1

Indices of Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity- Necessary elements for peaceful co-living (philosophy / principle / index / interpretation of index) -Philosophy / Principle
Ⅰ. Human dignity
1. Freedom from want

2. Freedom from fear
3. Recognition as human
being

Index

Interpretation of index (example)① Fulfilment of basic needs (securing clothes, food and houses)② Fulfilment of basic needs (securing that health is maintained)③ Fulfilment of basic needs (securing the right to education)④ Fulfilment of basic needs (securing employment opportunities)⑤ Securing daily safety and peace of mind (security on the inside)⑥ Securing daily safety and peace of mind (security from the outside)⑦ Having existence recognized by others (raison d’être)⑧ Discrimination from others / presence or lack of injustice (nodiscrimination)⑨ Freedom to live with dignity (respect for personality)⑩ Freedom to live with dignity (right to self-determination)

Ⅱ. Belonging to a group andalienation
4. Identity⑪ Group of belonging (as self-perceived)12) Do you feel that your personality is respected?
13) Can you decide for yourself?
14) Are the conditions available so that you can decide for yourself?
(Availability of options / information, securing freedom of speech / thought / creed)⑬ Group of belonging (as perceived by others)⑭ The most important group of belonging (as perceived by others)⑮ Satisfaction with the making of policies and decisions in the groupof belonging⑯ Degree of participation in decision-making within the group of
belonging (perception of alienation)15) What kind of group do you recognize yourself as belonging to (there may be morethan one answer*)?
Community of origin / local community / local municipality
Group by ethnicity, tribe, religion Group by job role, class, hierarchy
Group by age / generation
Group by genderGroup by ideology
Group by income16) Which group is the most important among the multiple groups to which you belong?
17) Is the current most important group the same as it was 10 years ago?
18) Is the most important group of belonging the same as it is to your parents?
19) To which group do other people see you as belonging?
20) Which group do other people see you to be considering most important?
21) Are you satisfied with the making of policies and decisions in your (most important)group of belonging
22) Do you participate in the decisions-making in your (most important) group of
belonging?

⑰ Degree of respect in decision-making within the group of belonging⑱ Level of contribution to decision-making and its implementation in
the group of belonging (as self-perceived)⑲ Level of contribution to decision-making and its implementation in
the group of belonging (as perceived by others)23) Are your opinions heard in your (most important) group of belonging?
24) Are your opinions and actions helpful in the decision making and implementation inyour (most important) group of belonging?
25) Are your opinions and actions highly evaluated in the decision-making andimplementation in your (most important) group of belonging?

⑫ The most important group of belonging (as self-perceived)

5. Group inclusiveness andexclusiveness

1) Is there a minimum amount of food and clothes?
2) Is the minimum living environment secured?
3) Is necessary medical care available?
4) Is basic education available?
4) Are there jobs that earn minimum living expenses?
6) Is public order in the community in a good condition?
7) Are there any fear of violence from other groups?
8) Are you ever ignored by others?
9) Do you feel glad to be alive?
10) Do you feel that there is hope to keep on living?
11) Do you face discrimination or unequal treatment from others?

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A Tentative Index for Measuring the Degrees of Realization of Peaceful Co-living

nⅡ. Intra-group Ⅲ. Inter-group relation
6. Perception of differences
between groups⑳ Perception of differences between group of belonging (as perceived
by others)㉑ Perception of inequality between groups

7. Relationships between
differing groups㉒ Intergroup confrontation / conflict in past, present and future㉓ View on differing groups

Ⅳ. Norms for peacefulco-living
8. Norms for peacefulco-living㉔ Non-violence㉕ Tolerance㉖ Responsibility26) In what ways do you perceive the difference between the groups of belonging of
yourself and others?
Do you see a difference when they have differing interests?
Do you see a difference when they have differing philosophies and ideas?
Do you see a difference when they have differing biological characteristics?
Do you see a difference when they have differing nationalities?
27) In what ways do you strongly feel a sense of inequality or discrimination between
the groups of belonging of yourself and others?
Do you feel a sense of inequality or discrimination when economic disparity is
noticeable?
Do you feel a sense of inequality or discrimination when economic disparity is
noticeable?
Do you feel a sense of inequality or discrimination when there is a difference in politicalforces?
Do you feel a sense of inequality or discrimination when there is a strong societal
discrimination?
Do you feel a sense of inequality or discrimination when there is a difference in medical
and educational opportunities?
28) Have you ever experienced a war or a violence incident in the past?
29) Are there any important conflicts currently?
30) Are there rumors of a potential war or violent incident in the future?
31) Do you think that the differences from differing groups create division of roles(mutual complementarity)
32) Do you first think about which is stronger (strong / weak) for a differing group?
33) Do you first think about which is better (good / bad) for a differing group?
34) Do you first think about which is more likeable (like / dislike) for a differing group?
35) Is it unacceptable to exercise violence even if there is conflict?
36) Should you accept incoming people and exclude them?
37) Can you bear the cost to comply with the norms of peaceful co-living?
Can you bear the cost to comply with the norms of peaceful co-living at the national
level?
Can you bear the cost to comply with the norms of peaceful co-living at the group andlocal community level?
Can you bear the cost to comply with the norms of peaceful co-living at the individuallevel?

235

Study Group Members
As of March, 2018

A: Transforming Science and Technology in the 21st Century - value, system and practice-

Principal Investigator
Tateo Arimoto

Vice Director, International Institute for Advanced Studies
Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Mitsunobu Kano

Deputy Director, Vice Dean and Professor,Graduate School of Medicine,
Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University

Shoji Komai

Associate Professor, Graduate School of Biological Sciences,
Nara Institute of Science and Technology

Hidetoshi Kotera

Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University

Naoki Miyano

Associate Professor, Center for the Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education andResearch, Kyoto University

Satoru Ohtake

Principal Fellow, Japan Science and Technology Agency,
Visiting Professor, Policy Alternatives Research Institute, the University of Tokyo

Sayaka Oki

Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University

B: Sustainability of Human Survival - Rebuilding of Value Axis towards 2100-

Principal Investigator
Takamitsu Sawa

Research Advisor, International Institute for Advanced Studies
Distinguished Professor, Shiga University

Seiji Ikkatai

Dean and Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Sciences,
Musashino University

Hirokazu Kato

Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University

Satoshi Konishi

Professor, Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Hidefumi Kurasaka

Professor, Graduate School of and Social Sciences, Chiba University

Fumio Sasaki

Minimalist, Writer, and Editor

Yukari Takamura

Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University236

C: Towards Peaceful Co-living in a World of Diversity

Principal Investigator
Ryuichi Ida

Vice Director, International Institute for Advanced Studies
President, Shiga University

Shin-ichi Ago

Professor, College of Law, Ritsumeikan University

Monte Cassim

Director, Kyoto Museum for World Peace, Ritsumeikan University

Akiko Fukushima

Professor, School of Global Studies and Collaboration,

Daisaku Higashi

Associate Professor, Center for Global Education, Sophia University

Toshiya Hoshino

Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Akira Kohsaka

Professor Emeritus, Osaka University (Graduate School of International Public Policy)

Naoko Maeda

Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Kyoto Women’s University

Yoichi Mine

Professor, Graduate School of Global Studies, Doshisha University

Toshiki Mogami

Professor, School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University

Masanori Naito

Professor, Graduate School of Global Studies, Doshisha University

Hiroshi Nakanishi

Professor, Graduate Program for Public Policy Studies, School of Government, Kyoto University

Hisae Nakanishi

Professor, Graduate School of Global Studies, Doshisha University

Ryo Oshiba

Professor, School of International Politics, Economics and Communication,
Aoyama Gakuin University

Modjtaba Sadria

Director, Think Tank for Knowledge Excellence

237

Aoyama Gakuin University

International Institute for Advance Studies (IIAS)

Founding Philosophy
Humanity is currently facing a number of challenges to its continued existence caused by a range of factors. Can we or
future generations continue to live on this planet in the same way and with the same values we’ve held up to now? How
can we resolve such problems that have historical and social origins? And in the 21st century, what form should our
culture, science, and technology take? There are no set methods for developing ideas when it comes to such challenges.
The founding philosophy of the International Institute for Advanced Studies (IIAS) is to "conduct research for the
future and happiness of mankind" and we address these issues through fundamental research based on cooperation
among government, industry and academia. By consolidating wisdom from around the world and taking researchforward, we aim to produce new directionality in academic research or orient ourselves towards creating new concepts,
and contribute to the development of academic research culture.

MissionOur society has reached a turning point where we veer off the path of "single-minded pursuit for development andefficiency" and follow the one of "peaceful and sustainable coexistence of all mankind." Along this new road lie
fundamental questions that need to be answered in order to secure the future and well-being of mankind. IIAS takes it
on as its mission to explore those questions, uncover new problems and present our "findings" to the world. We arecommitted to leading in-depth discussions and shedding light on the discovered paths towards solution.

History
IIAS was established in August 1984 as an incorporated foundation strongly supported by entities from industry,
academia and government that agree with its founding philosophy outlined above, and has since been running on
donations from major companies and philanthropists across Japan. In October 1993, IIAS opened a research facility in
the Keihanna Science City (officially known as Kansai Science City) on a land granted by the Kyoto Prefectural
Government. The Institute serves as the central research organization or the "brain" of the Keihanna Science City.

238

IIAS Organization

As of March, 2018

Management Members of Research
Director
Makoto NAGAO

Professor emeritus and ex-President, Kyoto University

Vice Director
Tateo ARIMOTO

Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
Senior Fellow, Japan Science and Technology Agency

Ryuichi IDA

President, Shiga University,
Professor emeritus, Kyoto University

Hiroshi MATSUMOTO

President, RIKEN
Professor emeritus and former-president, Kyoto University

Research Advisor
Takamitsu SAWA

Distinguished Professor, Shiga University
Professor emeritus, Kyoto University

Research Planning and Promotion Committee
Chairman
Hiroyuki SAKAKI

President, Toyota Technological InstituteMembers
Yoshinori HIROI

Professor, Kyoto University

Hiroyuki HIROOKA

Professor, Kyoto University

Hidetaka ISHIDA

Professor, The University of Tokyo

Junji KOIZUMIAuditor, National Institutes for the Humanities

Michiharu NAKAMURA

Advisor, Japan Science and Technology Agency

Sei-ichi NISHIMOTO

Chairman, Kyoto Municipal Institute of Industrial Technology and Culture

Ikuko HARA-NISHIMURA Professor, Konan University
Shojiro NISHIO

President, Osaka University

Kieishi SAEKI

Specially Appointed Professor, Kyoto University

Mana SHIMAOKA

Professor, Osaka University

Shigeru TAKAMI

Specially Appointed Professor, Kyoto University239

Management Members of Foundation
Chairman
Yoshio TATEISHI

Honorary Chairman, Omron Corporation
Chairman, Kyoto Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Executive Managing Trustee
Makoto NAGAO

Director, International Institute for Advanced Studies

Makoto OKAHASHI

Omron Corporation

Trustees
Toshiaki MAKIIInternational Institute for Advanced Studies

Masanori NAKAGAWAManaging Director, Public Foundation of Kansai Research Institute

Souichiro SEKI

Senior Managing Director, Kansai Economic Federation

Auditors
Kazuhiro TAKAHASHI

Certified Public Accountant, Licensed Tax Accountant

Yoshikazu YOSHIDA

Corporate Adviser, Shimazu Corporation

Councilors
Eiji FUJII

Director, Institute for Energy and Material/Food Resources
Technology Innovation Division, Panasonic Corporation

Yasuo KASHIHARA

Vice Chairman, Kansai Economic Federation

Mitsuo KAWATO

Director, ATR Brain Information Communication Research Laboratory Group

Hitoshi OSAKISpecial Advisor to the President, National Institute for the Humanities

Masaaki SHIRAKAWAManaging Executive Officer, Kintetsu Group Holdings Co.,Ltd

Narifumi TACHIMOTO

President, National Institute for the Humanities

Shigeaki TANAKA

Professor emeritus, Kyoto University

Akimasa YAMASHITA

Vice-Governor, Kyoto Prefectural Government

Naokazu YOKOYA

President, Nara Institute of Science and Technology

Tamio YOSHIDA

Director, Kyoto Municipal Institute of Industrial Technology and Culture

ISC Members, Second Period
Chairman
Yoichiro MURAKAMI

Professor emeritus, The University of Tokyo and International Christian University

Members
Takenori INOKIProfessor emeritus, Osaka University and International Research Center forJapanese Studies

Tatsuhiro KAMISATO

Professor, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Chiba University

Kazuhiko KASAYA

Professor emeritus, International Research Center for Japanese Studies

Toshio KUROKI

Senior advisor, Research Center for Science Systems,
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Kenichiro OHARA

Honorary Director, Ohara Museum of Art

Ryosuke OHASHI

Director, Japan Germany Cultural Research Center

240

Shaping the Future beyond Modernity

Original Japanese Edition, June, 2016
English Edition, March, 2018. (Translated by machine translation)
International Institute for Advanced Studies
9-3,Kizugawadai,Kizugawa city,Kyoto 619-0225 JAPAN
TEL:+81-774-73-4000 FAX:+81-774-73-4005
http://www.iias.or.jp/en

E-mail：ra@iias.or.jp

2018.03-R008E