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Executive Summary
ITF Transport Outlook 2021

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Executive Summary

Background
The ITF Transport Outlook 2021 presents scenarios for global transport demand over the next three
decades to 2050. It covers passenger and freight transport and all transport modes. The scenarios include
detailed projections for transport’s CO2 emissions under different conditions, allowing an assessment ofthe potential impacts of future transport activity on climate change.
This edition analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on transport systems and their role in social
equity and human well-being. The scenarios model potential long-term changes caused by the pandemic
and link them to challenges and opportunities for decarbonising transport. The Transport Outlook identifies
policy actions that are critical to ensure an effective and equitable transition to sustainable mobility on an
urban, regional and global level in the wake of the pandemic.
Three different scenarios were modelled. The Recovery scenario represents the world’s current efforts,
extrapolated to 2050. The Reshape scenario assumes governments will implement ambitious
decarbonisation policies beyond those currently in place. In the Reshape+ scenario, governments inaddition leverage opportunities for transport decarbonisation created by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Findings
Total transport activity will more than double by 2050 compared to 2015 under the trajectory reflecting
current efforts. Passenger transport will increase 2.3-fold. Freight transport will grow 2.6-fold. Total demand
growth is slower than projected in the previous Transport Outlook edition, when a trifold increase wasexpected. The slower demand growth over the coming decades reflects less optimistic projections for
economic growth and new decarbonisation commitments made in 2018/19. Future transport demand willreflect the uncertain path of recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic, which makes robust projections difficult.
Continuing economic development and a growing world population will translate into more demand fortransport overall, however.
Current transport decarbonisation policies are insufficient to pivot passenger and freight transport onto asustainable path. CO2 emissions from transport will increase by 16% to 2050 even if today’s commitments
to decarbonise transport are fully implemented. The expected emissions reductions from these policies
will be more than offset by increased transport demand.
By contrast, more ambitious transport decarbonisation policies could reduce transport CO 2 emissions byalmost 70% in 2050 compared to 2015. Such a reduction would bring the goal of the Paris Agreement tolimit global warming to 1.5˚C into reach. It would require more and better-targeted actions to reduce
unnecessary travel, shift transport activity to more sustainable modes, improve energy efficiency, andrapidly scale up the use of electric vehicles and low-carbon fuels.
Cities could cut their CO2 emissions from urban mobility by as much as 80% compared to 2015 levels
under ambitious decarbonisation agendas. Their high density of people, services and infrastructure puts
ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021 © OCDE 2021

3cities in a frontline position to shift to low- or zero-emission transport options and implement effective
demand management that could avoid 22% of urban transport activity compared to the current trajectory.
Regional and inter-city passenger transport is difficult to decarbonise. Yet by 2050, its CO 2 emissions could
be less than half of those in 2015 with the right policies. Managing demand for air travel, longer car trips
or regional rail travel is more challenging than for urban mobility. Measures to shift demand to sustainable
modes where possible, enhanced vehicle efficiency and improved fuel technologies must all play a role inreversing the growth trend of non-urban passenger emissions.
The strong growth of freight activity calls for an increased focus on decarbonising goods transport. Freight’s
absolute CO2 emissions will be 22% higher than 2015 by 2050 under current policies and its share of alltransport emissions will continue to grow, albeit slowly. By contrast, absolute freight emissions could be
72% less than 2015 with policies to boost freight consolidation, enhance collaboration in supply chains,advance standardisation, and promote low-carbon technologies across the sector.
Encouraging behavioural change and harnessing stimulus packages for economic recovery from thepandemic to fast track the decarbonisation of transport will greatly accelerate the transition to sustainablemobility. Linking economic recovery with transport decarbonisation would bring the climate goals of theParis Agreement within reach faster and with more certainty.
Decarbonisation policies should not put disproportional burdens on some citizens. Implementing policies
carefully to avoid negative distributional effects is essential. Less well-off groups and regions bear most of
the costs of climate change and the negative externalities created by the mobility choices of more
prosperous parts of the population. Climate action should not make the vulnerable worse off, but aim toenhance social equity. A strong focus on improving accessibility will help to achieve both: making mobility
more efficient and thus less emitting, and making it easier for citizens to access opportunities.

Policy insights
Align Covid-19 recovery packages to revive the economy, combat climate change andstrengthen equity
In the wake of the pandemic, transport policies should pursue a threefold objective: aiding economic
recovery, reducing harm to the environment and ensuring fair and equitable societal outcomes. Aligningthese goals will build public support for such significant interventions. It will also make them more costeffective and easier to implement fast. Recovery from the Covid-19 crisis offers a singular chance tocombine economic development with shifting mobility behaviour and scaling up low-carbon technologies,
while increasing opportunities for citizens by improving access through better mobility solutions.

Implement much more ambitious policies that will reverse the growth of transport CO2emissions
Transport CO2 emissions will continue to rise under current policies, not fall. A growing world populationand increasing prosperity create new transport demand that will outstrip projected emissions reductions.
The right policies can break the link between economic growth and transport emissions, however. Suchpolicies will create incentives to avoid unnecessary travel, shift mobility to sustainable transport options,and improve vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. In the 2021 revision of the Nationally Determined
Contributions under the Paris Agreement, governments must set ambitious targets, underpin them withconcrete policies, and reinforce them by leveraging Covid-19 recovery packages to accelerate and deepentransport decarbonisation.

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Target different transport sectors with strategies that reflect their specificdecarbonisation potential and challenges
Different parts of the transport sector require different approaches to decarbonisation. Not all strategies to“avoid, shift, and improve” are applicable across the sector in the same way. Urban passenger transport
can employ all three approaches to drastically reduce emissions by shortening travel distances, offering
non-motorised options and achieving high user volumes on public transport. Decarbonising regional andintercity transport, in turn, will rely more on technological improvements, as demand for non-urban
transport is difficult to manage. Freight transport can best reduce demand and emissions throughlow-carbon technologies, consolidation of loads, shorter supply chains and rapid digitalisation andstandardisation of processes and technologies.

Support innovation to accelerate the technological breakthroughs needed todecarbonise transport
Technological advances are critical to effectively decarbonise transport, especially in otherwise
hard-to-decarbonise areas. Reducing energy consumption of motorised travel requires investment incleaner vehicles and fuels. Increasing the price of carbon-intensive transport will encourage a shift to
low-carbon alternatives. Investing in charging infrastructure for road transport will increase consumer
confidence in zero-emissions vehicles, and purchase subsidies can accelerate the transition by making
clean mobility more affordable. Digital innovation will help the more efficient operation of public transport,other shared mobility services and freight logistics.

Shift the priority to improving accessibility
Shifting the focus of policy from increasing mobility to improving accessibility will better deliver on several
goals, from climate change mitigation to sustainable development and human well-being. Transport
planning tends to conflate increased capacity with improved accessibility. Yet travelling more and further
does not mean citizens have easy access to where they need to go. Transport planning that serves citizens
considers their desired destinations and focusses on how well transport options connect them.

Intensify collaboration with non-transport sectors and between public and private actors
Transport decarbonisation is inseparable from developments in other sectors. Most notably, sustainablemobility is only possible with clean energy production. A green electricity grid is crucial so electric vehicles
can be truly emissions-free. In turn, low-carbon transport is central to sustainable trade and tourism.
Digitalisation of transport services offers opportunities for more efficient routing, shared use of assets andbetter data to inform decisions. Close co-operation between governments and private actors in newmobility markets is imperative to maximise the social benefits of new services and minimise external costs.
Finally, integrating land-use decisions and transport planning can reduce transport demand while
improving accessibility for citizens.

ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021 © OCDE 2021