Draft for Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Japan Section of
the Regional Science Association International
Tokyo, Japan
October 9-11, 2011

Planning for a High Tech/Biotech Research Park Start-up

Jaewon Lim
Office of University Research Parks
University of Arizona, USA
jlim@email.arizona.edu

Lay James Gibson
School of Geography & Development andOffice of Arid Lands Studies
University of Arizona, USAljgibson@ag.arizona.edu

Vera Pavlakovich-Koichi
Economic and Business Research
University of Arizona, USA
vkp@email.arizona.edu

ABSTRACT. THIS PAPER EXPLORES THE USE OF SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES WHEN
PLANNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW HIGH TECH/BIOTECH RESEARCH
PARK. WE ARGUE THAT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCALE OF ANALYSIS IS A CRITICAL
FACTOR. WE USE A NEW DATA SET DEVELOPED BY IMPLAN WHICH REPORTS
DATA AT THE ZIP CODE/POSTAL CODE SCALE. USING THIS DATA SET WE CANCONDUCT INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF RESEARCH PARK IMPACTS AND
CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE MICRO (ONE POSTAL CODE) SCALE, AT THE
METROPOLITAN SCALE, AT THE STATE SCALE, AND FINALLY AT THE USSCALE. WE ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT DIFFERENT I/O METRICS "TELL DIFFERENTSTORIES," WE DO ANALYSES USING EMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATION, AND WAGE
DATA. FURTHER, WE REPORT FINDINGS BY THE MINIMUM REQUIREDEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR APPROPRIATE OCCUPATIONS.

1. INTRODUCTION

The purposes of this paper are straight-forward. First, we intend to generate measurable resultsof future economic impacts of a high tech/biotech research park start-up using an Input-Output
approach (IMPLAN 1 Model) that are relevant for local, regional, and national
stakeholders. Second, we will translate our findings so that that can be effectively used by policy
makers and planners.
This paper builds on a series of previous works translating findings of Input-Output analysis into
readily deliverable pieces to community leaders for local economic development (Lay J. Gibson,
V. Pavlakovich-Koichi, R. Gruener, and B. Wright, 2008, 2009, 2010). The task of planning for a hightech/biotech research park is involved but sometimes underestimated is the need to "sell" theresearch park to constituencies in the local area, the metropolitan region, and beyond. The
research park will certainly bring a variety of benefits to local and regional populations but it
might also displace residents, compete with other projects for planning dollars, and place new
demands on physical infrastructure. Further, it will mean different things at different geographic
scales. In a competitive environment it is naive to assume that the benefits of a new researchpark will be self-evident. In this paper we identify constituencies at four different geographic
scales. Further, we review the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of a high tech/biotech
research park using employment, occupation, and wage metrics.
We draw heavily on a new data set developed and made available by IMPLAN.

1

This study uses Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) of IMPLAN® Professional developed by Minnesota Implan Group, Inc.

2

1.1 Scale
Thanks to the new data set produced by IMPLAN we are able to focus on four geographic scales(Figure 1). The largest scale is the micro or neighborhood scale. This scale is just one zipcode/postal code in size. We have selected the zip code which contains the new University of
Arizona Biotech Park. Somewhat large in area is the Metropolitan Tucson Scale; the data
described here are the sum of the data for the 54 zip codes which are found in the Tucson
Metropolitan Statistical Area. Larger yet is the state scale--the sum of all zip codes in the stateof Arizona. Finally, the smallest scale reference area is the National or US Scale which iscomposed of all zip codes in the United States.
IMPLAN data allow us to provide economic profiles, race and demographic profiles, andeducational attainment profiles for the four geographic scales.
Economic variables (Table 1) suggest that economic distress is most pronounced at the
micro/neighbor scale and that as the map scale gets smaller economic well being increases.
Labor Force Participation Rates, Per Capita Incomes, Median Household Incomes, and Per
Employee Incomes are all lower at the Micro/Neighborhood Scale whereas unemployment rates
and population share below the poverty level are higher at the micro or neighborhood scale thanthey are at the National/U.S. scale.

3

(b) Tucson Metropolitan Area (Metro Scale)

Phoenix

Tucson(a) State of Arizona (State Scale)(c) Zip Code 85713 Neighborhoods (Micro Scale)Figure 1. Study Area Maps
4

Table 1. Economic Profiles at Four Geographic Scales
Micro/
Neighborhood
Scale

Metropolitan/
TucsonScale

State/
Arizona
Scale

National/
U.S.
Scale

Labor Force
Participation Rate

50.5%

60.3%

61.1%

63.9%

Unemployment Rate

10.0%

5.3%

5.6%

3.7%

Per Capita Income (1.)$16,000$25,910$26,550$28,270

Median Household
Income (2.)$35,210$48,140$53,110$55,000

Per Employee Income (3.)$43,810$46,040$47,210$52,500

Share of Population Below
Poverty Level

27.2%

14.7%

13.9%

12.4%

Metric(1.) 2010 US Dollars(2.) 2010 US Dollars(3.) 2008 Data in 2010 US Dollars
Source: 2000 Decennial US Census and 2008 IMPLAN Regional Data

Race and demographic variables (Table 2) show that the Micro Scale is heavily Hispanic - theHispanic population in the Micro area is approximately five times as common as it is in the US
as a whole. Similarity, both the Metropolitan Scale and the State Scale way heavily toward the
Hispanic population.
Table 2. Race/Demographic Profiles at Four Geographic Scales
MetricMicro/
Neighborhood
Scale

Metropolitan/
TucsonScale

State/
Arizona
Scale

National/
U.S.
Scale

Hispanic as % of Population

62.1%

29.3%

25.3%

12.5%

Black as % of Population

6.2%

3.0%

3.1%

12.3%

33.2 years

35.7 years

34.2 years

35.3 years

Median Age
Source: 2000 Decennial US Census

Finally, Educational Attainment data (Table 3) suggest that the levels of educational attainment
are generally low. The portion of the population with no high school is considerable higher thanat other geographic scales. The portion with high school only is slightly higher at the Micro5

Scale than at other Arizona Scales but it is lower at the National or US scale. Percentages of the
population with some college, with BA and BS degrees, and with graduate degrees are also
consistently lower at the Micro or Neighborhood Scale than at the other Arizona Scales or at the
US/ National Scale.
Table 3. Educational Attainment Profiles at Four Geographic Scales
MetricMicro/
Neighborhood
Scale

Metropolitan/
TucsonScale

State/
Arizona
Scale

National/
U.S.
Scale

36.5%
26.3%
26.0%
7.0%
4.2%

16.6%
23.3%
33.3%
15.9%
10.9%

19.0%
24.3%
33.1%
15.2%
8.4%

19.6%
28.7%
27.3%
15.5%
8.9%

% with No High School% with High School Only
% with Some College% with BA/BS Degree% with Graduate Degree
Source: 2000 Decennial US Census

Education Attainment in 2000 (in %)
40.0%
36.5%
35.0%

33.3%

33.1%

30.0%

28.7%
27.3%
26.3% 26.0%
24.3%

25.0%

23.3%

19.6%

19.0%

20.0%
16.6%

15.9%

15.5%

15.2%

15.0%
10.9%
10.0%

8.9%

8.4%
7.0%
4.2%

5.0%

0.0%
Micro
Share of No HS Degree

Metro
Share of HS Only

State
Share of Some College

Share of BS

Figure 2. An Education Metric
6

US
Share of Graduate Degree

To summarize, the new University of Arizona Biotech park is located in an area thatis economically distressed, has levels of educational attainment that lag behind the metropolitanarea, the state, and the nation and that has a large "minority" (Hispanic) population.

2. INPUT/OUTPUT FINDINGSAs previously noted, the input/output analysis has been conducted at four geographic scales--themicro or neighborhood scale, the Metropolitan Tucson scale, the State of Arizona scale, and the
US or National scale. We have also conducted the I/O analysis at four points in time, the initialstage, the intermediate stage, and the maturity stage. In this paper we will present our findings at
the micro or neighborhood scale for 2012 and for the US or National scale for 2030. The
discussions of micro and neighborhood scale findings for 2012 emphasize developments at the
University of Arizona's Biopark at the local level in the short-term. In other words the focus is on
the Park itself before it adds additional activities and before the initial firms start to grow.
Findings for the year 2030 recognize that the Biopark will grow and expand over time but better
yet, the Park will generate indirect and induced jobs and income as the Park per se increasinglyinteracts with firms and government agencies in the Tucson Metropolitan Area, elsewhere in theState of Arizona, and even elsewhere in the US.
Further, we describe our findings in terms of employment and wages by minimum required
educational attainment for occupations required at each stage. The idea here is to establish thathigh tech/bioparks provide opportunities for a variety of citizens. Certainly the opportunities for
those which advanced university degrees are substantial and significant but there are also
7

abundant opportunities for those who have achieved only modest levels of educational
attainment and even for those who have failed to complete their high school diplomas. In otherwords, the public perception might correctly be that high tech/bioparks are an environment for an
educated elite but we demonstrate that they provide a wide range of opportunities for citizens of
all levels of educational attainment. Further, they offer pathway jobs which allow upwardmobility for those with high school diplomas, some college or specialized training, BA or BS
degrees, and even those with a graduate degree. Even the non-pathway jobs allow those with nohigh school diploma to enter the work force, perhaps for the first time, in positions that offer
substantial wage income.

2.1 Baseline/Start-up: The Micro/Neighborhood Scale during the Initial Stage, 2012
Table 4 paints a picture of the University Biopark itself in its initial year of operation. As can beseen, we assume that there will be six major employers in the Biopark in the initial stage-- 2012.
The bulk of the employees will be in research a development firms or in a hospital which could
be tied to drug trials, or it could simply serve traditional patients. Smaller numbers of workers
will be in office administration and laboratory and medical instrument manufacturing activities.
Two other employers which start small and stay small are the high school and university housing.
The university housing would be for university (graduate) students and families who areemployed in the park. The high school would have a high tech/biotech focus and would bedesigned to meet the needs of both university bound students who wish to focus on biotech andmedical careers and those who have a more vocational focus but also in the biotech/medical
areas.

8

Table 4. Direct Employment Composition
IMPLAN Sector (Code)Initial Stage (2012)
Research &Development (376)Hospital (397)
Office Administration Service (384)Hotel (411)
Lab & Medical Inst. Manufacturing (305)High School (391)
University Housing (360)Maturity Stage (2030)

180
180
40
0
20
30
10

900
900
200
200
100
30
10

The employment picture in the Maturity Stage in 2030 has change in two ways. First, we
assume that between 2012 and 2030 a new activity will join the mix in the Biopark--a hotel. The
hotel would meet the needs of a variety of potential customers including visiting researchers,
vendors, hospital patients and their families, those attending conferences, and members of thegeneral public attracted to the hotel's, brand, location, and price point. Secondly we assume thatduring the 28 years between the Initial State and Maturity there will be substantial employment
growth in the research and development, hospital, and office administration sectors and moremodest growth in the laboratory and medical instrument manufacturing sector.
Other perspectives on the baseline or start-up phase are shown on Table 5. Direct employment isshown as 460 in both Table 4 and Table 5. Table 5, however, shows the share of the start-up
direct employment available to different educational cohorts. Whereas the number who holdgraduate degrees is likely to be modest there will be abundant opportunities for high school andcollege graduates and for those with levels of educational attainment somewhere in between. As
shown in Table 5, the local annual wage bill is estimated to be over 32 million dollars during theinitial stage and the direct wage per employee is estimated to be over $81,000 per year forcollege graduates and slightly less for those with graduate degrees; the latter group includes"post-docs" who have pay rates that are slightly reduced to reflect the fact that they are still9students. Even those with no high school diploma are assumed to have a per employee direct
wage of over $57,800 per year.
Table 5. Employment at the Micro/Neighborhood Scale during Initial Stage (2012)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occupation

DirectEmployment

Direct Wage(aggregated)
NumberDirect Wage(per Employee)

Number%%NumberRatio (%)

Graduate Degree

10

2.2%

807,690

2.5%

79,292 111.2%

BS/BA Degree

161

35.1%

13,095,037

39.9%

81,148 113.8%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

99

21.5%

5,905,230

18.0%

59,663High School Only

149

32.5%

10,663,925

32.5%

71,461 100.2%

No High School
Diploma Required

40

8.7%

2,314,910

7.1%

57,801

Total

460

100.0%

32,786,793 100.0%

83.7%

81.1%

71,305 100.0%

Finally, it should be noted that we assume only direct employment at the Micro/Neighborhood
scale during the initial stage (2012). The reason is simple--there are very few local businesses at
the Micro or local scale--businesses that might do business with Biopark based firms, or for thatmatter, with employees who live in the local neighborhood. At some point in the future we canhope that localized firms will be established to serve the needs of Biopark based businesses andlocal residents. In the meantime it is safest to assume that localized demands for goods andservices will be met by out-shopping which sees local firms and individuals make their purchasesin the greater Tucson area, elsewhere in the State, or even elsewhere in the US. Given the factthat the Micro/Neighborhood scale is economically disadvantaged, in the short term it will need10to be satisfied with direct employment which will start at 460! Overtime it can be expected to see
the expanded economic benefits that come with the indirect and induced impacts tied to themultiplier process.

2.2 Input/Output Findings at the Metropolitan Scale during the Initial Stage, 2012
As was the case at the Micro/Neighborhood Scale all of the direct employment in the Tucson
Metropolitan Area is in the Biopark--the direct employment data in Table 6 are the same as the
direct employment data in Table 5.
Table 6. Employment in Tucson Metro Area during Initial Stage (2012)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occcupation

DirectEmployment

Indirect Employment

Induced Employment

Total Employee
Numbers in All
Categoreis of
Employment

Number%Number%Number%Number%Graduate Degree

10

2.2%

4

2.9%

4

1.8%

19

2.2%

BS/BA Degree

161

35.1%

26

17.8%

29

12.1%

217

25.6%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

99

21.5%

3

2.4%

20

8.4%

123

14.5%

High School Only

149

32.5%

60

40.6%

77

31.8%

286

33.7%

No High School
Diploma Required

40

8.7%

53

36.3%

111

45.9%

204

24.1%

Total

460

100.0%

147

100.0%

242

100.0%

849

100.0%The important news carried in Table 6 has to do with the indirect and induced employment.
Whereas we do not think that there will be multiplier impacts at the Micro or Neighborhood

11

Scale we do estimate multiplier impacts at the Metropolitan Scale. Expenditures by firms andthe 460 employees based in the Biopark will lead to the creation of additional employment in the
Tucson Metro Area. Specifically, the expenditures by Biopark firms (the firms that employ 460
workers) will support another "indirect" 147 employees. Better yet, direct and indirect activities
will support an additional 242 induced employees. When we add together the direct, indirect,
and induced impacts a total of 849 new jobs will be created in the Tucson Metropolitan--allbecause of the Biotech firms that employ the "Baseline 460 direct employees."
Table 7. Wage per Employee in Tucson Metro Area during Initial Stage (2012)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occupation

Direct Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Indirect Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Induced Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Total Wage in All
Categoreis(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Graduate Degree

79,292 111.2%

50,884 120.2%

42,864 117.3%

64,347 114.1%

BS/BA Degree

81,148 113.8%

53,662 126.7%

40,318 110.4%

72,306 128.3%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

59,663

83.7%

42,984 101.5%

55,908 153.1%

58,572 103.9%

High School Only

71,461 100.2%

43,905 103.7%

43,430 118.9%

58,165 103.2%

No High School
Diploma Required

57,801

34,29826,95534,916

Total

81.1%

71,305 100.0%

81.0%

42,339 100.0%

73.8%

36,528 100.0%

61.9%

56,378 100.0%

Total wages also jump--from the $32,786,793 in direct wages to a new total of $47,839,364 in
direct, indirect, and induced wages in the Tucson Metro Area. The Biopark itself will still be theleader in terms of wage per employee at $71,305 because even the poorer jobs here will still be"top of the line" given Tucson standards. But having said that, the "worst" indirect jobs in the12

Tucson Metro Area will still average $34,298 per employee for those with no high school
diploma and $26,955 per employee for induced employees with no high school diploma; theaverage indirect wage per employee is estimated to be $42,339 whereas the average wage per
induced employee is estimated to be $36,528 (Table 7).

2.3 Input/Output Findings at the Metropolitan Scale at the Maturity Stage, 2030
Direct employment at the Biopark is expected to get off to a solid start in 2012 and that
employment plus indirect and induced employment in the Tucson Metro Area is expected toprovide and impressive baseline which will be a foundation for future growth.
Table 8. Employment in Tucson Metro Area during Maturity Stage (2030)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occcupation

DirectEmployment

Indirect Employment

Induced Employment

Total Employee
Numbers in All
Categoreis of
Employment

Number%Number%Number%Number%Graduate Degree

51

2.2%

22

2.9%

22

1.8%

95

2.2%

BS/BA Degree

727

31.1%

134

17.6%

149

12.1%

1010

23.3%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

487

20.8%

17

2.3%

103

8.4%

607

14.0%

High School Only

763

32.6%

308

40.5%

390

31.8%

1462

33.8%

No High School
Diploma Required

312

13.3%

279

36.7%

563

45.9%

1154

26.7%

Total

2340

100.0%

761

100.0%

1227

100.0%

4328

100.0%

13

We estimate that some 18 years after the park takes off in 2012 it will enter its “mature stage.”
Tables 8 and 9 describe estimates of employment and wages per employee in the Biopark in
2030. Table 8 establishes that we expect substantial gains in direct, indirect, and induced
employment. Whereas the total metro area employment in 2012 was estimated to be 849 (Table6), we estimated the 2030 figure to be 4,328 (Table 8). We see the total wage bill generated by
the Biopark’s direct, indirect, and induced employment going to $242,720,501 (from$47,839,364 in 2012). In other words, the absolute growth in employment and wage bill is
expected to be substantial. Equally, important we see continued strong growth in all educational
attainment categories and in average wage per worker, too.
Table 9. Wage per Employee in Tucson Metro Area during Maturity Stage (2030)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occcupation

Direct Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Indirect Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Induced Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Total Wage in All
Categoreis(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Graduate Degree

79,317 112.0%

50,895 120.2%

42,865 117.3%

64,190 114.5%

BS/BA Degree

86,822 122.6%

53,776 127.0%

40,319 110.4%

75,580 134.8%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

60,19285.0%

43,020 101.6%

55,909 153.1%

58,974 105.2%

High School Only

70,72099.9%

44,215 104.4%

43,430 118.9%

57,841 103.1%

No High School
Diploma Required

48,721

68.8%

34,10026,95534,561

Total

70,792 100.0%

80.5%

42,354 100.0%

14

73.8%

36,529 100.0%

61.6%

56,075 100.0%

2.4 Multiplier by Education Attainment Level in Tucson Metro Area (Maturity Stage 2030)
At the Micro or Neighborhood level there is no multiplier, or at least no measurable multiplier.
As discussed previously there will be direct employment but at the micro level there are very few
firms which provide either business services or personal services. Biotech firms will need toleave the local area for goods and services as will employees of those Biotech firms. Further we
expect this to be the case into the future. There will be multiplier benefits experienced at theTucson Metropolitan Scale (and at the State and National scales). Whereas there are small
differences in our estimates of multipliers at the Tucson Metro Scale in 2012, 2020, and 2030 the
differences are small and they appear to be of a “technical” nature.
Table 10. Employment Multiplier in Tucson Metro Area during Maturity Stage (2030)
Multiplier
Decomposition

Direct Job Share ofMultiplier

Indirect + Induced
Job Share ofMultiplier

Graduate Degree

0.04

0.02

0.02

BA/BS Degree

0.43

0.31

0.12

Some College

0.26

0.21

0.05

High School Only

0.62

0.33

0.30

No High School Degree

0.49

0.13

0.36

Total

1.85

1.00

0.85

Education Attainment

In Table 10 we show the estimated employment multiplier for the Tucson Metro Area in 2030.
Further we show the "decomposition" for direct employment and for indirect and induced
employment for "unity," the direct employment "piece" of the multiplier and for the additional
indirect and induced employment which is supported by the direct employment in the Biotech
Park. All of this is done by level of educational attainment. To summarize: every 100 direct
jobs at the Biopark will lead to the creation of an additional 85 indirect and induced jobs within
the Tucson Metro Area. For every 100 direct jobs at the Biopark 33 will be available for those15

with "high school only" and 13 will be available for those in the "no high school degree" group.
Additionally, for every 100 direct jobs at the Biopark there will be another 30 indirect andinduced jobs for those with "high school only" in the Tucson Metro Area and 36 indirect andinduced jobs for the "no high school degree" cohort. In short, 100 new direct jobs in the Biopark
will see 85 indirect and induced jobs created for a Metro Area total of 185 jobs.

2.5 Input/Output Findings at the National Scale at the Maturity Stage, 2030
When the Biopark reaches maturity its impacts will be enormous. Still, we assume that it willtake 28 years (2012-2030) for the full effects of the Biopark to be felt. We have alreadydiscussed that the Biopark itself will grow from 460 direct employees in 2012 to 2,340 in 2030.
Table 11. Employment in the US during Maturity Stage (2030)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occcupation

DirectEmployment

Indirect Employment

Induced Employment

Total Employee
Numbers in All
Categoreis of
Employment

Number%Number%Number%Number%Graduate Degree

51

2.2%

30

2.8%

53

2.0%

134

2.2%

BS/BA Degree

727

31.1%

187

17.2%

383

14.1%

1297

21.1%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

487

20.8%

18

1.6%

162

6.0%

667

10.9%

High School Only

762

32.6%

439

40.2%

907

33.5%

2108

34.4%

No High School
Diploma Required

312

13.3%

417

38.2%

1200

44.4%

1929

31.4%

Total

2340

100.0%

1091

100.0%

2705

100.0%

6136

100.0%

16

But even more impressive will be the growth in direct and induced employment. Some of theseindirect and induced employees will be based in Metropolitan Tucson whereas others will bebased elsewhere in Arizona or even elsewhere in the US. By 2030 we estimate that the total
employment generated by the Biopark will be 6,136 including the 2340 direct employees whowill be based at the Biopark (Table 11). In the year 2030 Biopark will support 4,328 direct,
indirect, and induced employees in the Metropolitan Tucson Area and an additional 1,808
indirect and induced employees elsewhere in Arizona and the US. Further, as was the caseduring the early years of the Biopark it will support opportunities for a wide variety of citizens
both in the Tucson Metropolitan Area and in other parts of the US. Over two-thirds of the total
employment in 2030 will be in so-called pathway jobs but almost one-third of the total
employment will be in the non-pathway jobs that do not typically require a high school diploma.
Table 12. Wage per Employee in the US during Maturity Stage (2030)
Minimum Required
Educational
Attainment for
Occcupation

Direct Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Indirect Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Induced Wage(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Total Wage in All
Categoreis(per Employee)
$

Ratio

Graduate Degree

91,003 115.4%

72,768 127.5%

61,688 131.5%

75,286 123.6%

BS/BA Degree

92,960 117.9%

75,549 132.3%

58,316 124.3%

80,227 131.7%

High School andSome College orSpecialized Training

64,65250,10287.8%

56,895 121.3%

62,379 102.4%

High School Only

80,513 102.1%

61,791 108.2%

56,973 121.5%

66,488 109.2%

No High School
Diploma Required

62,14243,02433,65640,290

Total

82.0%

78.8%

78,840 100.0%

75.4%

57,086 100.0%

17

71.8%

46,907 100.0%

66.2%

60,895 100.0%

Aggregate wages put into the national economy are estimated to be $373,632,905 in 2030
including $242,720,501 into the Metropolitan Tucson Economy. Further the average wage per
employee promises to be substantial for all levels of educational attainment (Table 12). Thosewith college degrees are expected to earn $80,000 or more per year in 2030 but even those injobs where no high school diploma is required are expected to average over $40,000 per year.

2.6 Multiplier by Education Attainment Level in the US (Maturity Stage 2030)
The local multiplier (Table 10) was impressive but as the Biopark grows and becomesincreasingly integrated into the US economy so too will the multiplier grow (Table 13). We
estimate that by 2030 when the Biopark is mature the average multiplier will be 2.62. This meansthat every 100 direct jobs at the Biopark will create another 162 indirect and induced jobs
somewhere in the US. And consistent with the assertion that the Biopark will offer opportunities
for a wide variety of individuals we can estimated that 100 direct jobs will include 33 jobs for
those with "high school only" and jobs 13 for those with no high school degree.
Table 13. Employment Multiplier in the US during Maturity Stage (2030)
Multiplier
Decomposition

Direct Job Share ofMultiplier

Indirect + Induced
Job Share ofMultiplier

Graduate Degree

0.06

0.02

0.04

BA/BS Degree

0.55

0.31

0.24

Some College

0.29

0.21

0.08

High School Only

0.90

0.33

0.58

No High School Degree

0.82

0.13

0.69

Total

2.62

1.00

1.62

Education Attainment18

3. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Input/output analysis is a well established technique for addressing economic impact anddevelopment type problems. But we argue that the usefulness of I/O can be enhanced when it isrecognized that multiple audiences want answers to the questions asked about project impacts.
In this paper we work at different geographic scales, with multiple variables, and with a variety
of metrics to help assure that we reach several appropriate audiences. As H.H. McCarty once
observed, each change in geographic scale brings with it the need to re-frame the researchquestions asked. We base our analysis and approach on our experience in Tucson Arizona.
Tucson is in some ways an ideal laboratory given that it faces may economic challenges and haslarge minority populations which are not well integrated into the national or even regional
economies. In sharp contrast are the relatively well educated and affluent individuals andfamilies tied to the University of Arizona which is a ranking National research university. In
other words, Tucson has a wide range of economic development needs and the Biopark will help
to meet these needs.
Obviously some people are curious about a variety of questions but our work with the Universityof Arizona's Biopark suggests that at the local or neighborhood scale the first question asked is
who will my new neighbors be? Specifically what types of firms will be based in the Biopark
and what sorts of new job opportunities will open-up? To address these questions we offer alook at the direct employment that we expect to be based in the Biopark.

Further, wedisaggregate this employment by levels of educational attainment to help answer the question of
employment opportunities.

19

Certainly the Biopark will employee college graduates and those with graduate degrees but
especially welcome news inasmuch as local or Micro Scale households tend to be economicallydisadvantaged with low levels of educational attainment is the fact that there will be abundant
opportunities for those with only a high school diploma and even those with no high school
diploma. We can also estimate the dollar amount of wages paid to direct employees and theaverage wage per employee by level of educational attainment. Neighborhood scale data are alsovaluable to those who will pay for new and improved transportation infrastructure, schools, andother hard and soft infrastructure.
Neighborhood activists will want to know about the park per se but they will also want to know
about the impacts on the larger metropolitan scale. Data about the Biopark itself tell only part ofthe story inasmuch as it will reach out into the large community for workers and for goods andservices. Local political leaders are consumers of data that describe the employment and income
benefits that will be available to their constituents through direct, and indirect, and induced
mechanisms. Indeed, we anticipate that indirect and induced impacts will be limit or non-existentat the neighborhood scale but they will be important at the Metropolitan Area Scale. These data
give local leaders "bragging rights" but they sometimes help justify the use of local resources tomake the Biopark a reality. Leveraging has become an important element in many economic
development projects and data on Metropolitan wage generation, employment generation, andopportunities for various socioeconomic cohorts supports the assertion that there are broad
community building benefits tied to Biopark investments.
Finally, we report I/O findings at the US Scale.

University leaders and both state andmetropolitan leadership all want evidence that the University of Arizona and its Biopark have anational impact and are integrated into national scientific networks and the national economic

20

system. Further, the documented role of the Biopark on generation of employment opportunities
and wages becomes an important part of the record that supports the use of Federal and stateloans or grants in the development of the Biopark.
The fact that the Biopark takes on a life of its own over time is demonstrated by data which
describe the park during its initial start-up period and subsequent data which describe the park
during maturity. We use 2012 and 2030 as these years for infancy and maturity. The Biopark is
initially impressive but it becomes even more impressive as it matures and becomes integrated
into the state and National economic and scientific systems.

21

BIOBLIOGRAPHY

Lay J. Gibson, V. Pavlakovich-Koichi, R. Gruener, and B. Wright (2010), “Translational Regional
Science, Input/Output Analysis and Community Engagement: New Perspectives for Closing theHigh Tech-Community Gap”, Studies in Regional Science, Vol. 40, No. 1, 2010, 1-17

Lay J. Gibson, V. Pavlakovich-Koichi, R. Gruener, and B. Wright (2009), “Community Engagement andKnowledge Translation: Critical Tools for Bio-Technology Development”, Applied Research in
Economic Development, Vol. 6, Issue 2, 78-86

Lay J. Gibson, B. Wright, R. Gruener, and V. Pavlakovich-Koichi (2008), “Closing the IndustryCommunity Gap through Community Engagement: High Tech/Bio Tech's New Frontier”, EDA
Project 077905928 prepared under an Award from the U.S. Department of Commerce
Economic Development Administration

Harold H. McCarty, and J.B. Lindberg (1966), A Preface to Economic Geography, Prentice-Hall,
pp 26122