New Era for Citizens as Game-changers-Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society
ゲームチェンジャーとなった私たち ー環境社会でもとめられるものー

Chiho WATANABE
National Institute for Environmental Studies
15th Kawasaki International Eco-Business ForumNew Era for Citizens as Game-changers-Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society
ゲームチェンジャーとなった私たち ー環境社会でもとめられるものー＊ Anthropocene, the ‘New Era’
The game we’re playing
Why are we stepping into Anthropocene?

＊ How to change the game to a ‘win-win’ one?
Learning from the past

国立研究開発法人

Excerpt from our Charter
国立環境研究所は今も未来も人びとが健やかに暮らせる環境をまもりはぐくむための研究によって広く社会に貢献します国立環境研究所
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies(NIES)

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New Era for Citizens as Game-changers-Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society
ゲームチェンジャーとなった私たち ー環境社会でもとめられるものー＊ Anthropocene, the ‘New Era’
The game we’re playing
Why are we stepping into Anthropocene?

＊ How to change the game to a ‘win-win’ one?
Learning from the pastWe are living in Anthropocene.

Rockstrom et al. (2009)

Anthropocene
see Steffen et al. (2018) PNAS 115 (33) 8252–8259

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人口
population貧困
poverty

寿命Longevity

エネルギー
Energy水water

土地開発
Land exploitation

肥料
Fertilizer

漁獲fishery熱帯雨林伐採
Logging in Trop F.

海の酸性化
Ocean acidification

CO2排出emission

渇水Drought
気温temperature

生物多様性
Biodiversity

Lancet Commission‘Planetary Health’(2017)より

‘Planetary boundaries’; some are transgressed or close

生物圏の統合性

気候変動

遺伝的多様性Rockstrom et al.. Nature (2009)
Steffen et al., Science (2015)
新規な物質

機能的多様性Within this circle (Boundary),
we are OK.

オゾン層枯渇

土地利用

大気中エアロゾル
淡水利用
生物化学的フローP

海洋の酸性化NWe are playing a‘win-lose’ game
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

A 5-year (2001-05) project evaluating the interrelationship between
ecosystem change and human wellbeing in the latter half of 20thcentury. Called by late Cofi Anan (ex UN-SG). 1,360 experts
participated in the project.

Ecosystem change ⇔ improvement of wellbeing and economics⇒ ecosystem service for future generations may decrease.
← avoidable with appropriate actions in the next half century← substantial shifts in policy and practice requiredwww.millenniumassessment.org ”synthesis
report”8

We are playing a‘win-lose’ game

HIGH
LOW
Environmental burden (ecol ftpt)

Wellbeing of people built upon environmental burden

LOW Wellbeing（human dev. index）

HIGH
99

Links between ecosystem damage and human welfare
直接影響： 熱波，洪水など

Ecosystem change/damage
気候変動
オゾン枯渇
森林開墾

生態系によって媒介される影響：
感染症の分布の変化，農作物の減産など

生物多様性の喪失
淡水枯渇汚染Millennium
Assessment
2019/2/13

間接的影響： 生計の減少，集団の移住，争い・・・・など

都市化

Lancet Commission‘Planetary Health’(2017)より

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Why are are stepping into Anthropocene?: 3 reasons
Paul Ehrich’s equation
Environmental Impact＝ Population x Affluence x Technology
T: bigger = worse (higher environmental burden)ex）
I : CO2 emission by the population

Ehrich P. 1932〜(Stanford U., Conservation Ecology ）P: population
A: consumption of electricity
per capita
T: CO2 emission
per unit electricity production
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Reason #1: Exponential increase in ‘Impact”

A↑P↑
Beginning of Food production(‘Agricultural Revolution’)

ICSS@Marseille 2013.9.16

Industrialization(‘Industrial Revolution’)

12Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback<examples with direct, strong feedback>・Animals (natural ecosystem)
・Hunter-gatherers (human-ecosystem)・cf. Local environmental pollution(Minamata, Itai-itai, air-pollution in mid-20C Japan)

I = PA（T）
Decrease in ecological service(including food shortage)13

Threereasons
to stepI=PAT
into Anthropocene
Reason#2: Weakfeedback#2. Avoiding feedback from environment<examples with strong feedback>Prior to industrialization
Forest = limiting factor [for ‘A’]
as fuel (heating, cooking, refining Ag .....）,
as construction material（house, palace, battle ship, barrel）→ constraints onland use

BC 5¢ -AD 4¢

BC3,500-1,500

I = PA（T）
BC1,500-800
Decline in ecosystem service＝decline in QOL（White Paper MOEJ; 2005）

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Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback<Condition/strategy to avoid feedback>Spreading the Impact
urban areas, company, country……

I1+I2+・・・・+In = PAT
food, electricity, ‘materials’
waste, CO2,
human resource
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Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback<Condition/strategy to avoid feedback>
Major urban areas are supported by x100 times larger areas.
＊Vancouber （pop=472,000@1991)
Ecological footprint 2M ha (i.e., 4hr/person)
180 times larger than the administrative （Wakenagel，2008：Urban Ecology）．
＊Baltic sea coastal region (29 major urban areas)
Ecological footprint =200 times larger than administrative area（Folke 2008）＊Japan (4+1 major cities)
・Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya
around 4-5 ha/person (250-600 times*)
・Matsue <a smaller city> 4.25 （30 times*）*: ratio for environmental capacity 2008
（by Yokoo and Oka, 2005；“環境容量超過率”（倍)16Full world before empty world
earth

Earth

Many ‘bands’
Earthancient
FullAccessible

by a ‘band’

Available
resources for the‘band’

contemporary

Safe operating
ground forhuman17Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback<Condition/strategy to avoid feedback>Barriers for feedback:

I=P A TEcosystemService↓＊Spatial =far/isolated＊Temporal =distant past, future＊Awareness =invisible, low priority

Climate Change: spatial, temporal, awarenessbiodiversity: spatial, awarenesschemicals: awarenesswaste: spatial
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urban: spatial, awarenessReason #3. no rival species

What if……?

New Era for Citizens as Game-changers-Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society
ゲームチェンジャーとなった私たち ー環境社会でもとめられるものー＊ Anthropocene, the ‘New Era’
The game we’re playing
Why are we stepping into Anthropocene?

＊ How to change the game to a ‘win-win’ one?
Learning from the pastPast success-failure and the way forward
Current status is the results of our past effort to ‘adapt’.
・We are unaware of how ‘powerful’ we become.’→need to understand the potential consequence of any behavior→ devise appropriate feedback measures for any behavior
・Had been focused only (almost exclusively) on humans→ should pay attention to non-human world→ monitor and broadcast the status of ecosystems

2016.6.22

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Connected layers→Sustainability of which?
どの持続可能性？
地球システム Earth system
生物圏 Biosphere
ヒト Human
経済・ 文明社会

EconomyandCivilization“Planetary health”（Whitmee et al., 2015. Lancet）
Human health and civilization can be achieved based on
the flourishing natural system and wise management of it.

10-yr monitoring of vegetation/snowfall at Tateyama

May 2009

2018

Camera set @ Murodo-cabin
立山室堂山荘内にカメラ設置

Aug 17, 2018

Novby Dr. H. Oguma, NIESPast success-failure and the way forward
Current status is the results of our past effort to ‘adapt’.
・We are unaware of how ‘powerful’ we become.’→need to understand the potential consequence of any behavior→ devise appropriate feedback measures for any behavior
・Had been focused only (almost exclusively) on humans→ should pay attention to non-human world→ monitor and broadcast the status of ecosystems
・failure to notice warning signals [for feedback]→ should be more sensitive to those signals (?)→ education, literacy raising,visualization of the signals24
2016.6.22

Revitalize the warning signal for I=PAT feedback

I=P A TEcosystemService↓

To overcome the Barriers for feedback:＊Spatial =far/isolated
Temporal =distant past, future- Use ICT to feedback monitoring(both real-time and long-term)- Demonstrate planet-ecosystem-human links＊Awareness =invisible, low priority-Raise ‘environmental literacy’ throughconversation, education
Resort to more ‘tangible’ value systems;

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Planetary Stewardship

Ecological Society of America (2009)

As current President and President-Elect of the EcologicalSociety of America (ESA), we call for planetary stewardshipas a framework for science and society to rapidly reduce
anthropogenic damage to the biosphere. Ecologists andthe ESA must collaborate with other natural and social
scientists – as well as with practitioners, resource harvesters,
land managers, decision makers, and other concerned citizens –to explore solutions. Humankind’s past actions have alreadycommitted the planet to a substantially altered future; the task
ahead is to find creative and scientifically defensible
actions that minimize risks of further resource or ecosystemdegradation and maximize opportunities to sustain and restore
natural ecosystems and the services they provide.
Guest Editorial; Frontiers in Ecology (2009)

The barriers may be breakable;
Spatial, temporal, and awareness.

‘A polar bear would say thank you foryour turning off an electric device.’by a 4th-grade primary schoolgirl

U of Tsukuba,
Energy reduction campaign, Dec 2017筑波大学 冬季省エネ・節電標語 （2017．12月）

Thank you for your attention!

2016.6.22

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