DIPLOMACY
Vol.41, Jan. 2017

Contents of Features

86

What the French presidential election bodes for Europe’s future

92“After Syria”: Battle for supremacy intensifies in the Middle East

101

Japan-ROK relationship has entered a new stage

110“Season of politics” will come in China: Xi Jinping’s power base and challenges

116

India’s Modi administration’s diplomatic strategy to increase wealth and military
power

What will happen to the EU should Marine Le Pen is elected President? How will Russia and Turkey react?
This French presidential election may become an important historical turning point that decides the fate of notjust the EU, but Europe as a whole.
Bill Emmott (Journalist)
Once the situation in Syria quiets down, the conflict between the two regional major powers, Saudi Arabia andIran, will likely come to the fore. There are no prospects for a stable region with the decreased presence of theU.S.
Keiko Sakai (Chiba University)
The ratification of the impeachment proposal of President Park Geun-hye has marked the beginning of aperiod of political movement with an eye on the presidential election in ROK politics. This essay analyzes thestructural factors behind the political turmoil in ROK and thinks about what kind of mutual understandings
could help heighten Japan-ROK relationship to a new level.
Junya Nishino (Keio University)
Xi Jinping administration will enter its second term with a strong hold on power within his administration. Whilemaintaining the one-party rule of the Chinese Communist Party, it seeks to restore its humiliating history of thepast to its rightful place, but the slowdown of economic development and building relationship with the Trumpadministration stands in its way as challenges.
Masahiro Okoshi (Nikkei)

India has initiated it’s “India first” diplomacy, which rides on a smooth economic development, positions itself
as a major power, and asserts its presence. Are there any blind spots to this policy, especially in terms of its
relationship with the U.S.?
Takenori Horimoto (Gifu Women’s University)

121

Paris Agreement framework will move forward despite U.S. absence

128

Reports from the World Assembly for Women: WAW! 2016

If the Trump administration opts to exit from the Paris Agreement, how should the world respond to climatechange? What we need now is a full-scale operation of the Paris Agreement that pulls the world towards acataclysmic change in energy policies.
Yukari Takamura (Nagoya University)

Work-life balance and international aid: Let’s think about a new type of aid bythinking about our own problems at home

The potential for life-work balance is significant, but we can’t say that this concept has seeped into theJapanese society well enough. The keys to giving foreign aid while dealing with challenges at home are“understanding and respect.”
Renge Jibu (Journalist)

134

Japan should take a global leadership role through women’s entry in the workforce
Arancha González (International Trade Centre)

Special Feature:

Year 2017 - Where the world is headed
and how Japan should navigate
6

Cover Story Interview

Outlook of 2017: the year of change
Fumio Kishida (Minister for Foreign Affairs)

16

A first step towards “the land of Japan-Russia cooperation”: Achievements and challenges

24

How Putin’s visit to Japan looks from Russia

32

Prime Minister Abe’s Pearl Harbor visit: Current state of historical reconciliation
between Japan and the U.S.

of the Japan-Russia Summit MeetingA sense of disappointment prevailed within Japan over the Japan-Russia Summit Meeting, due to highexpectations. However, one can argue that Japan-Russia relationship has undergone a new development
when looking closely at the process of negotiations. How will the Japan-Russia negotiation turn out in thefuture?
Akiko Iwata (NHK)How can Putin’s visit to Japan be assessed from the Russian perspective? This essay looks at the future ofJapan-Russia relations by considering factors such as the Putin administration’s “Asia shift” and thebeginning of Trump administration in the United States.
Nobuo Shimotomai (Hosei University)

Following President Obama’s visit to Hiroshima in May 2016, Prime Minister Abe will visit Pearl Harbor fromDecember 26 to 27. The author explains the significance of historical reconciliation between Japan and theU.S. and the problem of historical perception and historical reconciliation in general.
Jennifer Lind (Dartmouth College)

45

Introduction to key Cabinet members and staffs of the Trump administration50

Uncoordinated diplomatic strategy: Burgeoning conflicts within the Trump team57

Increasing uncertainty in U.S.-China relations: The direction of China’s maritime expansion and64

Trade policy framework of the Post-TPP era: Challenges of multilateral trade in a world without
the U.S.
“The job-killing Trans-Pacific Partnership.” The trade policy becoming a contentious campaign issue led tothe birth of Trump administration. Will the U.S. trade policies become protectionist and if so, how should
disputes be settled? The author considers the direction of world trade after the collapse of TPP.
Yoshiko Kojo (University of Tokyo)

69

The impact of new Trump administration’s economic policies and its risks

Masahiko Adachi (Sumitomo Corporation Global Research)

Trump administration’s core cabinet members and White House Staff have mostly been decided. Statements
made by those appointed to deal with foreign and security policy differ in many ways from what Donald
Trump has stated thus far. Will the policy coordination process eliminate or expand these seeds of conflict?
Richard McGregor (Journalist)
the Taiwan problem
The state of affairs in East Asia continues its flux after the electoral triumph of Donald Trump. Japan’s role iscrucial given the opaqueness of future U.S.-China relations. The author argues that tireless adjustment ofJapan-U.S. alliance in order to hedge China’s maritime expansion and engagement policy for confidencebuilding are both indispensable policies of Japanese diplomacy.
Yasuhiro Matsuda (University of Tokyo)

High stock prices continue from anticipated expectations, but the actual contents of Trump’s economic
policies remain to be unseen. This essay lays out what we should look out for in the coming “Trumpnomics”
from the information we have now and future forecast, including whether it could pay close attention to both
economic impact and policy impact or not.
Masahiko Hashimoto (New York Research Center, Daiwa Institute of Research)