Summary

Study of Basic Zoning Information Concerning Renewable Energies (FY2012)
The introduction of renewable energies is important not only as a countermeasure for global
warming but also from such viewpoints as establishing energy security, developing autonomousand scattered energy systems and creating new industries and jobs. For this reason, the Ministryof the Environment (MoE) conducted the Study on the Potential for the Introduction ofRenewable Energies (hereinafter referred to as the “Potential Study”) in FY 2009 and FY 2010
to estimate the abundance as well as introduction potential of various types of renewableenergies (non-residential use of PV power, individual buildings,etc. of PV power, wind power,
small and medium-scale hydropower and geothermal power) and their possible introduction
amount by different scenarios with a view to developing basic data for the examination of viablemeasures to introduce and spread the use of renewable energies in the coming years as well as
preparing basic zoning information.
The present work involved the refinement, re-estimation and updating of the basic
information on introduction potential and zoning in the preceding two years. In addition, it
entailed survey of the introduction potential of solar heat and geo-heat, etc., and appropriate
presentation of the results in order to promote the understanding and convenience of using andintroducing renewable energy among citizens, public authorities and businesses, etc.
1. Re-estimation, etc. of the Introduction Potential of Each Type of Energy
Upon rearranging the concepts of such terms as “reserves,” “introduction potential” and“possible introduction amount by scenario,” re-estimation was conducted on the introduction
potential, etc. Also, methods were examined with a view to refinement concerning small andmedium hydropower and geothermal power generation.
(1) Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of PV Power Generation for Residential Use, etc.
Based on data from past surveys, building classifications were partially reviewed and theintroduction potential was re-estimated. As a result, the introduction potential was estimated as185.18 million kW. As for the possible introduction amount by scenario, this was estimated forthe scenarios indicated in Table 1 using the reviewed panel prices and area-separate generatingcoefficient. As a result, the possible introduction amount by scenario was estimated as
6.17~38.96 million kW.

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Table 1

Setting of Scenarios, etc. in Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of PV
Power Generation

Category

Output capacityand panel priceLess than 10kW
427,000 yen/kWScenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Remarks

1.Detachedhousing
30 yen/kWh 35 yen/kWh 40 yen/kWh Last year
and small commercial
10 years
10 years
10 years
the pricefacilities (※1)
was set at
2.Categories other than
10kW or more
30 yen/kWh 35 yen/kWh 40 yen/kWh 350,000yen/kW.
the above(※2)
280,000 yen/kW
20 years
20 years
20 years※1 The project condition in category 1 has been set at PIRR ≧0%. Concerning the used electricity, it isassumed that the regular electricity tariff is applied. Concerning the power that is left overfollowing the excess purchasing period, project feasibility has been set at 20 years upon assumingthat it has value equivalent to the avoidable cost.
※2 The project condition in category 2 has been set at pre-tax PIRR≧4% .

Figure 1 Results of Re-estimating the Introduction Potential of PV Power Generation forResidential Use, etc.
(2) Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of PV Power Generation for Public Use, etc.
The category of “public buildings” was added to “Non-residential PV power generation”
from past surveys, thereby giving a new category of “PV power generation for public use, etc.”
The introduction potential was estimated using the power generation coefficient in each area. As
a result, introduction potential of 146.89 million kW was estimated. Concerning the possible
introduction amount by scenario, as a result of conducting estimation upon setting thearea-separate generation coefficient and cost of using building roof space, it was estimated as
11.31~105.53 million kW.

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Figure 2 Results of Re-estimating the Introduction Potential of PV Power Generation for
Public Use, etc.
(3) Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of Onshore Wind Power Generation
The reserves of wind power were estimated in reflection of the Tohoku region windconditions maps compiled by the Ministry of Environment in fiscal 2011 (as opposed to thewind conditions map used in past surveys). As a result, reserves were estimated as 1,343.10
million kW. The introduction potential was estimated as 267.56 million kW upon altering
altitude (1,000m or more →1,200m or more), setting
the aboveground opening (less than 75°) andupdating regulatory data (natural parks, etc.) withrespectto

theconditionsofdevelopment

unfeasibility. Because wind power

generation

facilities became eligible for environmental impact
evaluation

from

October

2012,

thepossible

introduction amount by scenario was estimated as
47.81~203.42

millionkW

uponadding

theenvironmental impact evaluation cost.

Figure 3 Results of Re-estimating the Introduction Potential of Onshore Wind Power
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Table 2

Setting of Scenarios, etc. in Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of Wind
Power Generation

Category
Onshore Wind Power
Generation
Marine Wind
Generation

Installation
Cost (※1)
250,000
yen/kW

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

15yen/kWh
20 years

20yen/kWh
20 years

25yen/kWh
20 years

30yen/kWh
20 years

Power

600,000 or
22yen/kWh25yen/kWh30yen/kWh35yen/kWh
800,000
20 years
20 years
20 years
20 years
yen/kW※1：Installation cost for Onshore Wind Power Generation includes initial expenses , road construction
and installation of transmission lines. For Marine Wind Power Generation, it includes all expenses
for projects（Floating Type equivalent）.

(4) Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of Marine Wind Power Generation
As for the introduction potential, the basic introduction potential is defined as ‘wind velocity
6.5m/s more and non exclusion of islands’ and the conditional introduction potential is definedas ‘wind velocity 6.5m/s more and exclusion of islands’ and ‘wind velocity 6.0m/s more andexclusion of islands’, and then they were estimated. As a result, the conditional introduction
potential of each 1,062.89 million kW, 1,303.33 million kW were estimated. Assuming twoscenarios of the possible introduction amount, the project unit costs（Floating Type equivalent）
were set as 600,000 yen/kW and 800,000 yen/kW. As a result, the possible introduction amountby scenario was estimated as 14.92 to 791.96 million kW in 600,000 yen/kW case.

Figure 4

Result of Re-estimating the Introduction Potential of Marine Wind Power Generation（the Basic Introduction Potential）

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(5) Re-estimation of the Introduction Potential of Geothermal Power Generation
The basic introduction potential and the conditional introduction potential were set as shown
below and were estimated. As a result, the basic introduction potential was estimated as 2.33
million kW, and the conditional introduction potential 1 was estimated as 5.34 million kW, andthe conditional introduction potential 2 was estimated as 8.48 million kW.
・the Basic Introduction Potential：Non National / Quasi-National Park, Non Slant Drilling・the Conditional Introduction Potential 1：Non National / Quasi-National Park, Slant Drilling・the Conditional Introduction Potential 2： National / Quasi-National Park, Non Slant Drilling

Figure 5

Result of Re-estimating the Introduction Potential of Geothermal Power Generation（Over 150℃,the Basic Introduction Potential）

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2. Examination Geared to Refinement of the Introduction Potential
As for Small and Medium-Scale Hydropower and Geothermal power, methods wereexamined with a view point to refining issues from past surveys.
(1) Examination Geared to Refinement of the Introduction Potential of Small andMedium-Scale Hydropower Generation
Methods were examined with a view to arranging and refining issues from past surveys.
Specifically, the following activities were conducted: 1) analysis and review of equipment
capacity in a virtual power plant, 2) verification of the calculated values obtained up to last year
(calculation of correction coefficient), 3) examination for explaining the feasibility of microhydropower in the local area, and 4) examination for identifying “promising sites.”(2) Examination Geared to Refinement of the Introduction Potential of Geothermal Power
Generation
Methods were examined with a view refining the geothermal power generation resources
density map. Specifically, the following activities were conducted: 1) arrangement of issues
from past surveys, 2) examination of methods with a view to refining the geothermal power
generation resources density map, 3) collection and arrangement of related data, 4) examinationof analytical algorism, and 5) examination on analysis and verification in specific areas. As aresult, in estimating the introduction potential of geothermal power generation, the impact of thegravity base depth was found to be great.
3. Estimation of Introduction Potential for Solar Heat and Geo-Heat
In this study, the heat demand map was compiled from the data set for individual buildings,etc. and the introduction potential for solar heat and geo-heat was estimated while taking care
not to make an excessive estimate in consideration of the supply and demand characteristics forheat.
(1) Compilation of a Nationwide Heat Demand Map
Utilizing the corrected data sets for individual buildings, etc. and the base units of heat
demand by area and use, the heat demand was calculated and the nationwide heat demand map
was compiled.

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Cooling

Heating

Hot-water Supply

Figure 6 Nationwide Heat Demand Map(2) Estimation of Introduction Potential for Solar Heat
The estimation preconditions (installation coefficient, etc.) were set and the introduction
potential map for solar heat was compiled.

Figure 7 Introduction Potential Map for Solar Heat

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(3) Estimation of Introduction Potential for Geo-Heat
The estimation preconditions (feasible heat acquisition area, etc.) were set and theintroduction potential map for geothermal power generation was compiled.

Figure 8 Introduction Potential Map for Geothermal Power Generation
4. Other WorkAs for other work, the results of past potential surveys were arranged, renewable energy
introduction potential maps (GE version) were compiled and updated, basic zoning information
maps (PDF version) were updated, and prefectural maps and spreadsheets in units ofmunicipalities were compiled. Also, a window for responding to inquiries concerning this study
was established and operated and a list of FAQs was compiled.

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