SW
SW
SW
SW
7+(3$5$0(7(52)WH,1),1,7,9(6$9,(:)520&+,/'(1*/,6+ SW
SW
.RML6XJLVDNL.ZDQVHL*DNXLQ8QLYHUVLW\SW
SW
SW
SW  ,QWURGXFWLRQ SW
:LWK WKH JRDO RI DFFRXQWLQJ IRU WKH RULJLQ DQG HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQ ODQJXDJH WKH0LQLPDOLVW 3URJUDP VHHNV WR VLPSOLI\ WKH PHFKDQLVPV DQG SULPLWLYHV DVFULEHG WR
ELRORJLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHG8* HJ%HUZLFN &KRPVN\&KRPVN\ $VRQHVXFKDWWHPSW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ KDV EHHQ SXUVXHG WKDW LQQDWH RSWLRQV IRU ODQJXDJH YDULDWLRQ
parameters GRQRWH[LVWZLWKLQWKHJHQHUDWLYHFRPSXWDWLRQDOV\VWHPDQGWKDWWKHORFXVRI
YDULDWLRQLVFRQILQHGWRWKHSURFHVVRIH[WHUQDOL]DWLRQDQGWRWKHOH[LFRQ PRUHVSHFLILFDOO\WR
WKH SURSHUWLHV RI IXQFWLRQDO FDWHJRULHV  5HFHQW VWXGLHV RQ WKH FURVVOLQJXLVWLF YDULDWLRQ RI
LQILQLWLYDOwhTXHVWLRQVDQGLQILQLWLYDOUHODWLYHVE\6DEHO  DUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKLVSRVVLELOLW\ %DVHG RQ V\QFKURQLF DQG GLDFKURQLF HYLGHQFH 6DEHO DUJXHV WKDW WKHVH wh
LQILQLWLYHV DUH DYDLODEOH RQO\ LQ WKRVH ODQJXDJHV WKDW SHUPLW SUHSRVLWLRQDO LQILQLWLYDOFRPSOHPHQWL]HUVDQGWKDWERWKRIWKHVHSURSHUWLHVVWHPIURPWKHPRUSKRORJLFDOSURSHUWLHVRI
WKHLQILQLWLYDO&V\VWHP 
SW
,QWKLVVWXG\,ZLOOHYDOXDWHWKHYDOLGLW\RI6DEHO¶V  SDUDPHWULFSURSRVDOE\EULQJLQJ GDWD IURP FKLOG ODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ (YLGHQFH IURP FKLOG (QJOLVK VXJJHVWV WKDW6DEHO¶V DQDO\VLV LV RQ WKH ULJKW WUDFN ZKLFK LQ WXUQ VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH WLPH FRXUVH RI FKLOGODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ LV SRWHQWLDOO\ DQ LPSRUWDQW JURXQG WR HYDOXDWH WKHRUHWLFDO SURSRVDOVFRQFHUQLQJWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIYDULDWLRQSHUPLWWHGE\KXPDQODQJXDJH
SW
SW  3DUDPHWULF9DULDWLRQRIWhLQILQLWLYHV6DEHO  
SW

7KH DYDLODELOLW\ RI HPEHGGHG LQILQLWLYDO whTXHVWLRQV DQG HPEHGGHG LQILQLWLYDO SRODU
 $Q HDUOLHU YHUVLRQ RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV SUHVHQWHG DW WKH WK $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH (QJOLVK/LQJXLVWLF 6RFLHW\ RI -DSDQ 6SHFLDO /HFWXUH  , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN WKH DXGLHQFH IRU YDOXDEOH
FRPPHQWV7KHXVXDOGLVFODLPHUVDSSO\7KLVUHVHDUFKZDVVXSSRUWHGLQSDUWE\WKH-636&RUHWR&RUH
3URJUDP$$GYDQFHG5HVHDUFK1HWZRUNV,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HVHDUFK1HWZRUNIRUWKH+XPDQ/DQJXDJH)DFXOW\ -3-6&&$ 3, <RLFKL 0L\DPRWR  DQG E\ -636 .$.(1+, + 3,
0DVDWRVKL.RL]XPL  7KH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH VRXUFH RI SDUDPHWULF YDULDWLRQ LV UHVWULFWHG WR IXQFWLRQDO HOHPHQWV LQ WKHOH[LFRQ ZDV ILUVW IRUPXODWHG E\ %RUHU   DQG ZDV WKHQ DGRSWHG E\ &KRPVN\   WKHUHE\NQRZQ DV WKH %RUHU&KRPVN\ &RQMHFWXUH 6HH &KRPVN\   IRU DSSURDFKHV WR UH IRUPXODWLQJSDUDPHWHUVZLWKLQWKH0LQLPDOLVW3URJUDP

-179-

1DQ]DQ/LQJXLVWLFV5HVHDUFK5HVXOWVDQG$FWLYLWLHV
SW
SW

TXHVWLRQVLVVXEMHFWWRFURVVOLQJXLVWLFYDULDWLRQ7KHVHLQILQLWLYDOLQWHUURJDWLYHVDUHSRVVLEOH
LQ(QJOLVKEXWQRWLQ*HUPDQDVVKRZQLQ  DQG  
SW
  D/LVDKDVGHFLGHG>whoWRYLVLWt@SW

E/LVDKDVGHFLGHG>whetherWRYLVLWKLPRUQRW@SW
  D /LVDKDWHQWVFKLHGHQ  >was  7RP  t  ]XVDJHQ@/LVDKDVGHFLGHGZKDW7RP'$7WRVD\SWµ/LVDKDVGHFLGHGZKDWWRVD\WR7RP¶SW
E /LVDKDWHQWVFKLHGHQ  >ob  7RP  HWZDV]XVDJHQ@/LVDKDVGHFLGHGZKHWKHU7RP'$7VRPHWKLQJ$&&WRVD\SWµ/LVDKDVGHFLGHGZKHWKHUWRVD\VRPHWKLQJWR7RP¶ 6DEHO 
SW
,Q DGGLWLRQ LQILQLWLYDO UHODWLYH FODXVHV DUH SHUPLWWHG LQ (QJOLVK EXW QRW LQ *HUPDQ DV
LOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHFRQWUDVWEHWZHHQ D DQG D 
SW
  D7KLVLVDWRSLF>about whichWRDUJXHt@SW

E7KLVLVDWRSLF>about whichRQHFDQDUJXHt@SW
  D /LVDVXFKWGDV0HVVHU  >mit dem.lVH   t  ]XVFKQHLGHQ@/LVDVHHNVWKHNQLIH$&&ZLWKWKH'$7FKHHVH$&&  WRFXWSW
µ/LVDVHHNVWKHNQLIHZLWKZKLFKWRFXWWKHFKHHVH¶SW

E/LVDVXFKWGDV0HVVHU  >mit demPDQ.lVH  t  VFKQHLGHW@/LVDVHHNVWKHNQLIH$&&ZLWKWKH'$7RQH120FKHHVH$&&  FXWVSWµ/LVDVHHNVWKHNQLIHZLWKZKLFKRQHFXWVWKHFKHHVH¶ 6DEHO 
SW

6DEHO    DUJXHV WKDW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI LQWHUURJDWLYH DQG UHODWLYHFODXVHIRUPDWLRQ ZLWK LQILQLWLYHV whLQILQLWLYHV  LV FORVHO\ FRQQHFWHG WR WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI
LQILQLWLYHV ZLWK SKRQHWLFDOO\UHDOL]HG SUHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOHPHQWL]HUV 0RUH VSHFLILFDOO\ KH
VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI whLQILQLWLYHV LV SHUPLWWHG RQO\ LQ WKRVH ODQJXDJHV WKDW KDYH
RYHUWSUHSRVLWLRQDOVXERUGLQDWRUVLQWKHLQILQLWLYDO&V\VWHP7KXVZKLOH(QJOLVKDOORZVIRU
WKH UHDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH SUHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOHPHQWL]HU for LQ WKH LQILQLWLYDO &V\VWHP RI
FRPSOHPHQWDQGUHODWLYHFODXVHV*HUPDQH[FOXGHVVXFKRYHUWFRPSOHPHQWL]HUVLQLQILQLWLYDOFRPSOHPHQWFODXVHV7KHUHOHYDQWH[DPSOHVDUHSURYLGHGLQ  DQG  
SW
  D,ZDQW>&3 IRU >73-RKQWRZLQ@@SW

E7KHUHLVVRPHRQH>&3IRU>73-RKQWRWDONWR@@SW


-180-

7KH3DUDPHWHURIWhLQILQLWLYHV$9LHZIURP&KLOG(QJOLVK .6XJLVDNL 
SW
SW  GDVVVLHYHUVXFKWH>&3 XP>73GDV%XFK]XOHVVHQ@@
WKDWVKH120WULHG&203WKHERRNWRUHDGSWµ«WKDWVKHWULHGWRUHDGWKHERRN¶ 6DEHO 
SW
$FFRUGLQJ WR 6DEHO    GLDFKURQLF HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI
SUHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOHPHQWL]HU 3&  FRQVWUXFWLRQ DV LQ   FRQVWLWXWHV D QHFHVVDU\ EXW QRW D
VXIILFLHQWFRQGLWLRQIRUWKHH[LVWHQFHRIwhLQILQLWLYHV,Q0LGGOH(QJOLVK 0( for VWDUWVWRLQWURGXFHSXUSRVLYHFODXVHVDVDFRPSOHPHQWL]HU%HIRUHWKH0(SHULRGQRwh-LQILQLWLYHVDUH
DWWHVWHG EXW WKH\ DUH IRXQG DIWHU WKH 0( SHULRG WKDW LV DIWHU for LQWURGXFHV FRPSOHPHQWFODXVHV DV D FRPSOHPHQWL]HU 7KXV 0( VKRXOG EH UHJDUGHG DV D ODQJXDJH WKDW KDV WKH 3&
FRQVWUXFWLRQEXWGRHVQRWSHUPLWwhLQILQLWLYHV6DEHO¶V  FURVVOLQJXLVWLFVXUYH\LQFOXGLQJ0(LVVXPPDUL]HGLQWKHWDEOHLQ  
SW   6DEHO¶V  &URVVOLQJXLVWLF6XUYH\

Wh-LQILQLWLYHV"

3&&RQVWUXFWLRQ"

(QJOLVK

<(6<(6

3ROLVK

<(6<(6

6SDQLVK<(6<(6(XURSHDQ3RUWXJXHVH

<(6

<(6

0LGGOH(QJOLVK

12

<(6

*HUPDQ

1212

6ZHGLVK1212

1RUZHJLDQ1212/DQJXDJH'DQLVK
12
12
SW
%DVHG RQ WKH FURVVOLQJXLVWLF REVHUYDWLRQ VXPPDUL]HG LQ   6DEHO   
IRUPXODWHVWKHwhLQILQLWLYHJHQHUDOL]DWLRQDVLQ  
SW
  7KHWh,QILQLWLYH*HQHUDOL]DWLRQ :+,*  6DEHO ,I D ODQJXDJH KDV whPRYHPHQW WR 6SHF &3 LQ LQILQLWLYHV WKHQ WKLV ODQJXDJH KDV WKH
RSWLRQRIILOOLQJWKH&V\VWHPRIWKLV W\SHRI LQILQLWLYHZLWKDQRYHUWFRPSOHPHQWL]HUSW

6DEHO  DWWHPSWVWRGHULYHWKLVJHQHUDOL]DWLRQE\DVVXPLQJWKDWWKHLQILQLWLYDO
OHIWSHULSKHU\LQODQJXDJHVZLWKRXWwhLQILQLWLYHVLV³GHIHFWLYH´$GHIHFWLYH&V\VWHPRQO\
SURMHFWVXSWR)LQLWH3KUDVH )LQ3 EXWGRHVQRWSURMHFW)RUFH3KUDVH)RFXV3KUDVHRU7RSLF
3KUDVH ZKLFK DV DFRQVHTXHQFHODFNV D SRVLWLRQ WR KRVW DSUHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOHPHQWL]HU,Q
DGGLWLRQHYHQWKRXJKWKH6SHFLILHURI)LQ3PD\DFWDVDQLQWHUPHGLDWHODQGLQJVLWHIRUDwh
RSHUDWRURUDUHODWLYHRSHUDWRUWKHVHRSHUDWRUVPD\QRWUHPDLQWKHUHVLQFHWKH\QHHGWREHLQ
WKH6SHFLILHURI)RF3 LQWKHFDVHRIDwhRSHUDWRU RULQWKH6SHFLILHU7RS3 LQWKHFDVHRIDUHODWLYH RSHUDWRU  LQ RUGHU WR EH SURSHUO\ LQWHUSUHWHG 7KXV D GHIHFWLYH &V\VWHP DOORZVQHLWKHUWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQQRUwhLQILQLWLYHVSW

-181-

1DQ]DQ/LQJXLVWLFV5HVHDUFK5HVXOWVDQG$FWLYLWLHV
SW
SW


,QFRQWUDVWLQODQJXDJHVWKDWKDYHSUHSRVLWLRQDOLQILQLWLYDOFRPSOHPHQWL]HUVWKHZKROHOHIWSHULSKHU\LVSURMHFWHGDVLQ  DQGKHQFHWKHILQDOODQGLQJVLWHVIRUDwhRSHUDWRUDQGDUHODWLYHRSHUDWRUDUHDYDLODEOHSW
  >)RUFH3>7RS3>)RF3>7RS3>)LQ3«@@@@@SW
7RVXPPDUL]HWKLVVHFWLRQ6DEHO  REVHUYHVWKDWwhLQILQLWLYHVDUHSHUPLWWHGRQO\LQWKRVHODQJXDJHVWKDWDOORZHPEHGGHGLQILQLWLYDOFODXVHVLQWURGXFHGE\DSUHSRVLWLRQDOFRPSOHPHQWL]HU 7KLV FURVVOLQJXLVWLF FRUUHODWLRQ LV DUJXHG WR IROORZ IURP WKH SDUDPHWULF
YDULDWLRQ FRQFHUQLQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH LQILQLWLYDO OHIW SHULSKHU\ /DQJXDJHV GLIIHU DV WRZKHWKHU LQILQLWLYDO FODXVHV SURMHFW WKH ZKROH OHIW SHULSKHU\ FRQVLVWLQJ RI )RUFH3 7RS3)RF3DQG)LQ3 RUQRW LHSURMHFWLQJRQO\XSWR)LQ3 
SW
SW  3UHGLFWLRQIRUWKH$FTXLVLWLRQRI(QJOLVKSW
8QGHU6DEHO¶V  SDUDPHWULFV\VWHPWKHDYDLODELOLW\RILQILQLWLYDOFODXVHVZLWKDSUHSRVLWLRQDOFRPSOHPHQWL]HU 3&FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRQVWLWXWHVRQHRIWKHQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQV
IRU WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI whLQILQLWLYHV ,Q WHUPV RI DFTXLVLWLRQ WKLV PHDQV WKDW WKH ODQJXDJHSDUWLFXODU NQRZOHGJH UHTXLUHG IRU WKH 3& FRQVWUXFWLRQ LV D SURSHU VXEVHW RI WKH NQRZOHGJHUHTXLUHGIRUwhLQILQLWLYHV7KHQLWVKRXOGEHSUHGLFWHGWKDWDFKLOGOHDUQLQJ(QJOLVKVKRXOG
QHYHU KDYH D JUDPPDU WKDW SHUPLWV whLQILQLWLYHV EXW GLVDOORZV WKH 3& FRQVWUXFWLRQ 7KLVSUHGLFWLRQFDQEHUHVWDWHGDVLQ  
SW  3UHGLFWLRQIRUWKH$FTXLVLWLRQRI(QJOLVK,Q (QJOLVK DQ\ JLYHQ FKLOG ZLOO DFTXLUH WKH 3& FRQVWUXFWLRQ SULRU WR RU DW DURXQG WKH
VDPHWLPHDVEXWQHYHUVLJQLILFDQWO\ODWHUWKDQLQILQLWLYDOwhTXHVWLRQVSW
SW  7UDQVFULSW$QDO\VLVSW
 6XEMHFWVDQG0HWKRGSW

,Q RUGHU WR HYDOXDWH WKH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH SUHGLFWLRQ LQ   IURP 6DEHO¶V   
SDUDPHWULF SURSRVDO , VHOHFWHG  ORQJLWXGLQDO FRUSRUD IRU (QJOLVK IURP WKH &+,/'(6GDWDEDVH 0DF:KLQQH\ ZKLFKSURYLGHGDWRWDOVDPSOHRIPRUHWKDQOLQHVRIFKLOGVSHHFK7KHFRUSRUDDQDO\]HGLQWKLVVWXG\DUHOLVWHGLQWKHWDEOHLQ  
SW
)RUHDFKFKLOG,ORFDWHGWKHILUVWFOHDUXVHVRI L DQLQILQLWLYDOwhTXHVWLRQDQG LL D3&
FRQVWUXFWLRQZLWKWKHYHUEwant 7RFRXQWDVDFOHDUXVHWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQZDVUHTXLUHGWR
 $ TXHVWLRQ ZRXOG UHPDLQ DV WR KRZ WR DFFRPPRGDWH ODQJXDJHV OLNH 0( ZKLFK DOORZV WKH 3&
FRQVWUXFWLRQEXWGRHVQRWSHUPLWwhLQILQLWLYHV ,QILQLWLYDOUHODWLYHFODXVHVZHUHQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHDQDO\VLVJLYHQWKDWWKH\DSSHDUWREHH[WUHPHO\
UDUHLQFKLOGUHQ¶VVSRQWDQHRXVVSHHFK

-182-

7KH3DUDPHWHURIWhLQILQLWLYHV$9LHZIURP&KLOG(QJOLVK .6XJLVDNL 
SW
SW

FRQWDLQ DQ RYHUW '3 VXEMHFW DQG DQ ,1)/ to LQ WKH &3 FRPSOHPHQW RI want 7KH &/$1
SURJUDP &RPER WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH ILOHV RI L  DOO WKH whZRUGV LQ (QJOLVK DQG LL  DOO WKHUHOHYDQWIRUPVRIwantZDVXVHGWRLGHQWLI\SRWHQWLDOO\UHOHYDQWFKLOGXWWHUDQFHVZKLFKZHUH
WKHQ VHDUFKHG E\ KDQG DQG FKHFNHG DJDLQVW WKH RULJLQDO WUDQVFULSWV WR H[FOXGH LPLWDWLRQVUHSHWLWLRQVDQGIRUPXODLFURXWLQHV)ROORZLQJ6WURPVZROG  DQG6Q\GHU  WKHDJH
RIDFTXLVLWLRQZDVWDNHQDVWKHILUVWFOHDUXVHIROORZHGVRRQDIWHUE\DGGLWLRQDOXVHVSW
 &RUSRUD$QDO\]HG$JH6SDQ
 &KLOG8WWHUDQFHV&KLOG
&ROOHFWHGE\$EH

.XF]DM  ± 

$GDP

%URZQ  ± 

$QQH

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± $UDQ

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± 

%HFN\

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± &DUO

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± 'RPLQLF

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± (YH

%URZQ  ± *DLO

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± -RHO

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± -RKQ

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± /L]

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± 1DRPL

6DFKV  ± 

1LFROH

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± 

1LQD

6XSSHV  ± 

3HWHU%ORRP  ± 

5XWK

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ± 

6DUDK

%URZQ  ± 6KHP

&ODUN  ± 

:DUUHQ

7KHDNVWRQHWDO ±                                       \HDUVPRQWKV SW
 5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQSW

7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH WUDQVFULSW DQDO\VLV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ WKH WDEOH LQ   $PRQJ WKHWZHQW\FKLOGUHQQLQHRIWKHPDFTXLUHGERWKWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQDQGwhLQILQLWLYHVE\WKHHQG
RIWKHLUFRUSRUDDQGWZRRIWKHUHPDLQLQJHOHYHQFKLOGUHQDFTXLUHGRQO\WKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQ
 7KH SUHVHQFH RI RYHUW for ZDV QRW UHTXLUHG LQ OLJKW RI WKH V\QWDFWLF HYLGHQFH WKDW WKH LQILQLWLYDO
VXEMHFWLVDVVLJQHG&DVHQRWE\WKHPDWUL[YHUEEXWE\DQXOOSUHSRVLWLRQDOFRPSOHPHQWL]HUHYHQZKHQ
for LVQRWRYHUWO\SUHVHQW6HH/DVQLN 6DLWR  IRUUHOHYDQWGLVFXVVLRQ



-183-

1DQ]DQ/LQJXLVWLFV5HVHDUFK5HVXOWVDQG$FWLYLWLHV
SW
SW

0HDQDJHRIDFTXLVLWLRQIRUWKH3& FRQVWUXFWLRQZDVDQG PHDQDJHRIDFTXLVLWLRQIRU
whLQILQLWLYHVZDV7KXVWKHPHDQDJHRIDFTXLVLWLRQIRUWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQZDVHDUOLHUWKDQ whLQILQLWLYHV E\ DERXW  PRQWKV &KLOGUHQ¶V ILUVW FOHDU XVHV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH$SSHQGL[SW
 $JHVRI$FTXLVLWLRQDQGWKH5HVXOWVRIWKH6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLV&KLOG
3&&RQVWUXFWLRQ
WhLQILQLWLYHV
p 
$EH





p!

$GDP





-----

$QQH



----------

$UDQ

----------

%HFN\





p!

*DLO





-----

1DRPL





p

1LQD





p!

3HWHU





-----

6DUDK





p!

6KHP





p!

Mean







                \HDUVPRQWKVGD\V 
SW

7R HYDOXDWH WKH VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI DQ REVHUYHG DJHGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKHDFTXLVLWLRQRIWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQDQGWKHDFTXLVLWLRQRIwhLQILQLWLYHV,FRXQWHGWKHQXPEHU
RIFOHDUXVHVRIWKHHDUOLHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ HLWKHUWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQRUwhLQILQLWLYHV EHIRUH
WKHILUVWFOHDUXVHRIWKHODWHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ1H[W,FDOFXODWHGWKHUHODWLYHIUHTXHQF\RIWKHWZR
FRQVWUXFWLRQVLQWKHFKLOG¶VRZQVSHHFKVWDUWLQJZLWKWKHWUDQVFULSWDIWHUWKHILUVWFOHDUXVHRI
WKH ODWHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG FRQWLQXLQJ WKURXJK WKH HQG RI WKH FRUSXV )LQDOO\ , SHUIRUPHG D
ELQRPLDO WHVW WR REWDLQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI VDPSOLQJ WKH REVHUYHG QXPEHU RI WRNHQV RI WKHHDUOLHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLPSO\ E\ FKDQFH EHIRUH WKH ILUVW FOHDU XVH RI WKH ODWHU FRQVWUXFWLRQXQGHUWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVWKDWERWKEHFDPHDYDLODEOHFRQFXUUHQWO\DQGKDGWKHVDPHUHODWLYH
SUREDELOLW\RIXVHDVLQODWHUWUDQVFULSWVSW
5HVXOWVRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVDUHDOVRLQFOXGHGLQWKHWDEOHLQ  $PRQJWKHQLQHFKLOGUHQ ZKR DFTXLUHG ERWK WKH 3& FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG whLQILQLWLYHV RQH FKLOG 1DRPL 
DFTXLUHG WKH 3& FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ HDUOLHU WKDQ whLQILQLWLYHV DQG WKH RWKHU HLJKWFKLOGUHQ DFTXLUHG WKHVH FRQVWUXFWLRQV DW DURXQG WKH VDPH WLPH $V IRU WKUHH RI WKHVH HLJKWFKLOGUHQ $GDP *DLO DQG 3HWHU  WKH WUDQVFULSW FRQWDLQLQJ KLV ILUVW FOHDU XVH RI WKH 3&
FRQVWUXFWLRQDOVRFRQWDLQHGKLVILUVWFOHDUXVHRIwhLQILQLWLYHVDQGDVIRUWKHUHPDLQLQJILYH
FKLOGUHQ $EH%HFN\1LQD6DUDKDQG6KHP WKHUHZDVQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHp!E\
ELQRPLDO WHVW &UXFLDOO\ QR FKLOG LQ WKLV VWXG\ DFTXLUHG whLQILQLWLYHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ HDUOLHUWKDQWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQ7KXVWKHUHVXOWVKDYHERUQHRXWWKHSUHGLFWLRQLQ  IURP6DEHO¶V

-184-

7KH3DUDPHWHURIWhLQILQLWLYHV$9LHZIURP&KLOG(QJOLVK .6XJLVDNL 
SW
SW

   SDUDPHWULF SURSRVDO 7KLV ILQGLQJ VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH WLPH FRXUVH RI WKHDFTXLVLWLRQ RI (QJOLVK LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK 6DEHO¶V YLHZ WKDW QDWXUDOODQJXDJH JUDPPDUVSHUPLWWLQJwhLQILQLWLYHVDUHUHVWULFWHGWRWKRVHSHUPLWWLQJWKH3&FRQVWUXFWLRQSW
SW
 &RQFOXVLRQSW
,QWKLVVWXG\,HYDOXDWHGWKHYDOLGLW\RIWKHDFTXLVLWLRQDOSUHGLFWLRQIURP6DEHO¶V 
 DQDO\VLVRIWKHFURVVOLQJXLVWLFYDULDWLRQRIwhLQILQLWLYHVZKLFKORFDWHVWKHVRXUFHRIWKHLU YDULDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH OH[LFRQ 7KH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG IURP WKH WUDQVFULSW DQDO\VLV RI (QJOLVKVSHDNLQJ FKLOGUHQ DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK 6DEHO¶V YLHZ WKDW QDWXUDOODQJXDJH JUDPPDUVSHUPLWWLQJWKHLQILQLWLYDOwhTXHVWLRQVDUHDSURSHUVXEVHWRIWKRVHSHUPLWWLQJWKHLQILQLWLYDOFODXVHV ZLWK D SUHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOHPHQWL]HU 7KH ILQGLQJV RI WKLV VWXG\ QRW RQO\ SURYLGHDFTXLVLWLRQDOVXSSRUWIRU6DEHO¶V  SDUDPHWULFSURSRVDOEXWDOVRJLYHVSURPLQHQFH
WRWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIFRQILQLQJSDUDPHWULFYDULDWLRQZLWKLQWKHOH[LFRQ$EURDGHULPSOLFDWLRQRIWKLVVWXG\LVWKDWWKHWLPHFRXUVHRIFKLOGODQJXDJHDFTXLVLWLRQLVSRWHQWLDOO\DQLPSRUWDQWJURXQGWRHYDOXDWHWKHRUHWLFDOSURSRVDOVFRQFHUQLQJWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIYDULDWLRQSHUPLWWHGE\KXPDQODQJXDJH HJ6Q\GHU6XJLVDNL 
SW
SW
SW
5HIHUHQFHVSW%HUZLFN 5& DQG 1 &KRPVN\   Why Only Us: Language and Evolution 0,7 3UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV%ORRP/  Language Development: Form and Function in Emerging Grammars.0,73UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV%RUHU+  Parametric Syntax)RULV'RUGUHFKW%URZQ5  A First Language: The Early Stages+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV&KRPVN\1  The Minimalist Program0,73UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV&KRPVN\1  ³1RWHVRQ3DUDPHWHUV´Linguistic Analysis&KRPVN\1  ³6RPH3X]]OLQJ)RXQGDWLRQDO,VVXHV7KH5HDGLQJ3URJUDP´Catalan Journal of
Linguistics Special Issue&ODUN(9  ³7KH<RXQJ:RUG0DNHU$&DVH6WXG\RI,QQRYDWLRQLQWKH&KLOG¶V/H[LFRQ´,Q( :DQQHU DQG / 5 *OHLWPDQ HGV Language Acquisition: The State of the Art &DPEULGJH
8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV
.XF]DM 6   ³7KH $FTXLVLWLRQ RI 5HJXODU DQG ,UUHJXODU 3DVW 7HQVH )RUPV´ Journal of Verbal
Learning and Verbal Behavior/DVQLN+DQG06DLWR  ³2QWKH6XEMHFWRI,QILQLWLYHV´Proceedings of CLS 27 7KH*HQHUDO
6HVVLRQ 
0DF:KLQQH\ %   The CHILDES Project: Tools for Analyzing Talk /DZUHQFH (UOEDXP$VVRFLDWHV0DKZDK1-
6DEHO-  ³7KH(PHUJHQFHRIWKH,QILQLWLYDO/HIW3HULSKHU\´Proceedings of WCCFL 32


-185-

1DQ]DQ/LQJXLVWLFV5HVHDUFK5HVXOWVDQG$FWLYLWLHV
SW
SW
6DEHO-  ³3DQGWKH(PHUJHQFHRIWKH,QILQLWLYDO/HIW3HULSKHU\´,Q-*DU]RQLRDQG65RVVL
HGVVariation in P: Comparative Approaches to Adpositional Phrases2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
2[IRUG
6DFKV -   ³7DONLQJ DERXW WKH 7KHUH DQG 7KHQ 7KH (PHUJHQFH RI 'LVSODFHG 5HIHUHQFH LQ
3DUHQW&KLOG'LVFRXUVH´,Q.(1HOVRQHGChildren’s Language, Vol. 4/DZUHQFH(UOEDXP$VVRFLDWHV+LOOVGDOH1-
6Q\GHU :   ³2Q WKH 1DWXUH RI 6\QWDFWLF 9DULDWLRQ (YLGHQFH IURP &RPSOH[ 3UHGLFDWHV DQG&RPSOH[:RUG)RUPDWLRQ´Language 
6Q\GHU:  Child Language: The Parametric Approach2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV2[IRUG
6WURPVZROG.  ³$QDO\]LQJ&KLOGUHQ V6SRQWDQHRXV6SHHFK´,Q'0F'DQLHO&0F.HHDQG
+6&DLUQVHGVMethods for Assessing Children’s Syntax0,73UHVV&DPEULGJH0DVV
6XJLVDNL.  Innate Constraints on Language Variation: Evidence from Child Language3K'
GLVVHUWDWLRQ8QLYHUVLW\RI&RQQHFWLFXW6WRUUV6XSSHV3  ³7KH6HPDQWLFVRI&KLOGUHQ¶V/DQJXDJH´American Psychologist
7KHDNVWRQ$/(90/LHYHQ-03LQHDQG&)5RZODQG  ³7KH5ROHRI3HUIRUPDQFH
/LPLWDWLRQVLQWKH$FTXLVLWLRQRI9HUE$UJXPHQW6WUXFWXUH$Q$OWHUQDWLYH$FFRXQW´Journal ofChild Language

SW
SW
SW
$SSHQGL[&KLOGUHQ¶V)LUVW&OHDU8VHVSW
 $EH
SW
SWD &+,XKKXK,ZDQW(GQDZLWKUHGKDLUWRFRPHWRR\HDK   E &+,,NQRZKRZWRJHWWKHWRSRII    
SW
 $GDP
SW
SWD &+,\RXZDQW0RPP\WRKDYHRQH"          E &+,,WHDFKKLPKRZWRZDONRQGDW>WKDW@     
SW
 $QQH
SW
&+,,ZDQW\RXWR>@WRSXWDOOWKHVHRXWDVZHOO   
SW
 $UDQSW
&+,,GRQ WZDQW0XPP\WRKHOSPH    
SW
 %HFN\SW
SWD &+,,ZDQW\RXWRFRPHEHIRUH  E &+,,GRQ WNQRZKRZWRGRLW  
SW *DLO
SW

D &+,,ZDQW&DUROLQHWRFRPH  E &+,\RXNQRZZKDWWRGRZLWKWKHP"  
SW
 1DRPLSW
SWD &+,,ZDQW\RXWRUHDGWKLV    SWE &+,, OOVKRZ\RXKRZWRGRLW  RND\"  -186-

7KH3DUDPHWHURIWhLQILQLWLYHV$9LHZIURP&KLOG(QJOLVK .6XJLVDNL 
SW
SW

 1LQD
SW
SWD &+,VKH  VKHZDQWVPHWRFDUU\KHU   E &+,KHGRHVQ WNQRZKRZWRVLWGRZQ  
SW
 3HWHUSW
SWD &+,ZDQWHPWRIDOOGRZQ  E &+,VKRZPHKRZWRZHDULW  
SW
 6DUDKSW
SWD &+,ZDQWPHWRFRPE\RXUKDLU"  E &+, D Q G  XP   XP   D Q G WKHQKHWDXJKW>@  WDXJKWPHKRZWRVZLP  
SW
 6KHP
SW
SWD &+,\RXKDYHDQRWKHU  ,ZDQW\RXWRKDYHDQRWKHURQH  E &+,LW VPD\>@LW VP\WYEHFDXVH, OO>@,ZLOO>@, OO>@,NQRZKRZWRWXUQLWRQ  -187-