The ITF Transport Outlook 2021
Reshaping mobility in thewake of Covid-19

Summary of key findings
and recommendations

Four facts about the future of transport
1Transport demand willmore than double

Global transport of people and goods will strongly increase
to 2050 due to population growth and economic development.

2

Transport’s CO2 emissions
will grow almost 20% to 2050

Any advances in decarbonising transport will be more thanoffset by increased demand for mobility.

3

Ambitious policies could cut transport
CO2 emissions by nearly 70%

Such a reduction would bring the goal to limit global warming
to 1.5˚C into reach.

4

The largest economies arealso the highest emitting

Developed countries also have the largest capital andgreatest technological means to reduce CO2 emissions.

Six top tasks for policy makers
Increase ambition

1

4…to reverse the trend and reduce transport emissions by
70%. Today’s policies are not sufficient.

2

Align policies…with strategies geared to their emissions-reduction
potential. Urban mobility has the highest potential, roadfreight and aviation are hardest to decarbonise.

5…to revive the economy, combat climate change andstrengthen equity.

3Focus on accessibility…to make trips easier and increase opportunities. Moremobility is not better well-being.

Target sectors

Support innovation…to accelerate technological breakthroughs needed todecarbonise transport.

6

Break down silos…and boost collaboration between interdependent sectors
like transport, energy, tourism and trade. Transport cannot
succeed alone.

Urban Passenger Transport
Key facts
Urbanisation will increase demand forsustainable transport around the world

The right policies can cut 80% of urban
mobility’s carbon footprint by 2050Main takeaways

2.6x
80%

Two main strategies can help manage
demand and deliver sustainable transport
services across the world
Integrate transport policy and land-use
planning to improve accessibility for citizens

Private vehicles emit three quarters of CO2
from urban passenger transport

Reducing reliance on cars is critical todecarbonise cities

Increased sustainability can mean greater
resilience

Developing public transport as the backboneof a multimodal transport system is key

Regional & Intercity Passenger Transport (non-urban)
Key facts
Demand for regional and intercity travel is set
to grow by up to 114%, with strong growth inemerging economies in particular

CO2 emissions from non-urban passenger
could rise by nearly one third or fall by morethan half to 2050, depending on policies

Aviation will recover from the impact of thepandemic and grow strongly by up to 3.1
times 2015 levels by 2050

Main takeaways

2.1x
+25%

Technological improvements offer the mostpromising path to decarbonising
non-urban passenger transport-57%

To ensure a sustainable transition to lowemission vehicles, increase consumer
confidence and pursue a clean energy grid

3.1x

Put a price on carbon that discourages highemission transport and makes clean
alternatives more attractive

Freight Transport
Key facts

Main takeaways

Freight accounts for more than 40% oftransport emissions

Scale up ready-to-adopt freightdecarbonisation measures quickly. Manymeasures rely on existing technology and canbe implemented soon.

40%

Align price incentives with freightdecarbonisation ambitions. Few carriers will
invest in low-carbon vehicles if they have topay more than for conventional fleets or fuelsRoad transport is responsible for 65% offreight emissions

Freight CO2 emissions will rise 22% from2015 to 2050 with current policies

2050
2015

22%

To reach climate targets, freight transport
must achieve the transition to low- or zerocarbon energy sources. Covid-19 stimulus
packages could play a critical role