DIPLOMACY
Vol.73, May/ Jun. 2022

Contents of Features

74“Three arrows” has been fired against Russia by the UN General Assembly: The Realitiesof the “international public opinion” and the possibility of UN reform
Gakushi Fujiwara (Asahi Shimbun)

79

The invasion of Ukraine: A global perspective

Paying attention to the voices of the “international society” outside of Europe and the U.S.
Masashi Haneda (The University of Tokyo)

83①The oil-producing countries in the Gulf: The Middle Eastern countries remain neutral

86②Brazil: A potential for conflicts in converting to a “great power diplomacy”

88③South Africa: Russian money making inroads into the ruling-party Kumiko Makino (IDE-JETRO)

90④Hungary: The strategy of Europe’s “pro-Russia” Orbán government Tadashi Yamamoto (Nihon University)

92

How will the war in Ukraine change the New Cold War between the U.S. and China? Xi Jinping’s
diplomacy of self-reliance and its implications for Taiwan

Takuya Murakami (Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies)
Gen Okada (Asahi Shimbun)

President Xi Jinping has shown a clear support for Russia. However, this has severely narrowed the options for Chinese diplomacy. As
the “New Cold War” between the U.S. and China accelerates, the author examines the impact of the Ukraine war on Taiwan.
Yasuhiro Matsuda (The University of Tokyo)

98

North Korea looks closely at the invasion of Ukraine: “Security assurances” have been
shaken by nuclear dismantlement and nuclear development

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances between the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. did not include a “guarantee” in theevent of a threat to security. North Korea is also insisting on these “guarantees.”Hideya Kurata (National Defense Academy)

104

G20 President Indonesia’s formidable “double-faced” position

The Jokowi administration perceives its G20 presidency as an opportunity to strengthen its domestic political base. Will it be able
to pave the way for the G20 summit amid strong domestic public rejection of the G7-led “Russian encirclement”?
Jun Honna (Ritsumeikan University)
TREND2022

114 The French Presidential Election: What Macron and Le Pen each won
Hirotaka Watanabe (Teikyo University)

122 The Philippine Presidential Election: The illusion of the “Golden Age of Marcos” was supportedWataru Kusaka (Tokyo University of Foreign Studies)

Feature: Seventy years since Japan’s independence (2)126 The post-Cold War ordeals: Changing Asian international order and Japanese diplomacy (2)The post-Cold War euphoria of the triumph of liberal democracy did not persist. In an era of resurgent struggles over “geographyand history” and the rise of China as a new destabilizing factor, what has been the thinking of Japanese diplomacy and how has it
been behaving?
Makoto Iokibe (University of Hyogo)

135 Can a constructive and stable Japan-China relationship be created?

Why has the momentum to improve relations that existed in the 20th century been lost? This article looks back at the history ofbilateral relations in the 73 years since the founding of China and the 50 years since the normalization of diplomatic relations.
Yasuyuki Sugiura (National Institute for Defense Studies)Special Feature:

A world facing the brink
6Conditions for reconstructing the “post-war” order: Strategy for linking NATO and theIndo-Pacific order

The world has been scathed by the “Putin’s war.” The time is ripe to envision a new “post-war” order. What is needed are asecurity framework that links NATO and the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” as well as a platform for effective disarmament andarms control. Japanese diplomacy’s initiative and imagination are being questioned.
Yoko Iwama (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

14

What is needed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons: “Nuclear shadow” in theRussia-Ukraine war

The world is on the brink of seeing whether or not nuclear deterrence will really work. This article lays out the basic ideas
surrounding nuclear deterrence and its usages, then examines what kind of actions the U.S. and Russia should take in asituation where it is up to their leaders to “make a decision.”
Sugio Takahashi (National Institute for Defense Studies)20

Who is Zelensky? Realities of the administration from Ukraine’s domestic perspective

26

Russia is faltering in the “20th Century War”: Strategic and military failures and the problemsof a prolonged war

Is President Zelensky really an “amateur”? This article depicts the actual management of his administration from his domestic
base to his closest associates who consolidate his power.
Takashi Hirano (Ukrinform)

Why did the initial plan of the Russian military to conquer major Ukrainian cities in a short period of time end up in a failure?
Two experts discuss the difficulties that Russia faces in prolonging the war and the changes in the West, including the two
Scandinavian countries’ application for NATO membership.
Kazuto Suzuki (The University of Tokyo) and Hiroshi Yamazoe (National Institute for Defense Studies)

36

Russian military offensive in the East enters “Phase 2”: Ukrainian forces use state-of-the-art
technology to defend the country Yoshihiko Ito (Takushoku University)

42

NATO is going back to its roots of collective defense

48

The resilience of Ukraine, the digital state

55“Information war is geopolitics”: Decoding Russia’s disinformation strategy

62

Global economic risks deepen as invasion results in further division

68

The greatest post-war humanitarian crisis: On the frontlines of refugee assistanceWith the provision of “offensive” arms to Ukraine, the “deployment” of troops east of Germany, and the deployment of adeterrence by denial, Europe has shifted towards a confrontational posture against Russia.
Yoshikazu Hirose (National Defense Academy)
The whole world was surprised by the adept cyber tactics and propaganda strategy of Ukraine. This was made possible by theUkrainian government’s efforts towards becoming a digital state. This article delves into the “true face” of this digital state basedon on-the-ground research.
Keiko Kono (National Institute for Defense Studies)
Russia perceives the information space as part of “geopolitics,” while Ukraine tries hard to create a sympathetic message. This
article describes the unprecedented developments currently taking place over “information warfare.”
Tomoko Nagasako (Sasakawa Peace Foundation)Western economic sanctions have taken a toll on the Russian economy, but the reduction in imports has created a trade
surplus, which has stabilized the Ruble and eased the effects of the sanctions. On the other hand, high resource prices havehurt emerging economies, resulting in a manifestation of the division between developed and emerging economies.
Takahide Kiuchi (Nomura Research Institute)More than 130 million Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons have fled to neighboring countries as a result ofRussia’s military invasion. Is the international community adequately dealing with this unprecedented refugee problem?
Hiroaki Nakatsubo (Association for Aid and Relief, Japan)