᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬ

ࢃࡀᅜ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ኚືࡢ⫼ᬒ㸸
ᖺຌ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡢᙳ㡪Ọ἟᪩ኸ᲍*
saori.naganuma@boj.or.jp

すᒸៅ୍*
shinichi.nishioka@boj.or.jp

No.14-J-9
2014 ᖺ 12 ᭶᪥ᮏ㖟⾜
ࠛ103-8660 ᪥ᮏ㒑౽㸦ᰴ㸧᪥ᮏᶫ㒑౽ᒁ⚾᭩⟽ 30 ྕ* ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬࡣࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ဨ࠾ࡼࡧእ㒊◊✲⪅ࡢ◊✲ᡂᯝࢆ࡜ࡾࡲ࡜ࡵࡓࡶࡢ࡛ࠊෆእࡢ◊✲ᶵ㛵ࠊ◊✲⪅➼ࡢ᭷㆑⪅࠿ࡽᖜᗈࡃࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ㡬ᡝࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆពᅗࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊㄽᩥࡢ୰࡛♧ࡉࢀࡓෆᐜࡸពぢࡣࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡢබᘧぢゎࢆ♧ࡍࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋ
࡞࠾ࠊ࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࡈពぢ࣭ࡈ㉁ၥࡸࠊᥖ㍕ࣇ࢓࢖ࣝ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ࠾ၥ࠸ྜࢃࡏࡣࠊᇳ➹⪅ࡲ࡛࠾ᐤࡏୗࡉ࠸ࠋ
ၟ⏝┠ⓗ࡛㌿㍕࣭」〇ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜࡣࠊணࡵ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜᝟ሗࢧ࣮ࣅࢫᒁ
SRVWSUG#ERMRUMS ࡲ࡛ࡈ┦ㄯୗࡉ࠸ࠋ㌿㍕࣭」〇ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜࡣࠊฟᡤࢆ᫂グࡋ࡚ୗࡉ࠸ࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ኚືࡢ⫼ᬒ㸸
ᖺຌ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡢᙳ㡪*Ọ἟᪩ኸ᲍† すᒸៅ୍‡2014 ᖺ 12 ᭶
࠙せ ᪨ࠚ
ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィࡋࠊࡑࡢ஋㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡋࡓࠋ௬࡟ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡛୺ᙇࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾ
ࡶ኱ࡁࡃࠊ㧗㱋⪅࡯࡝㈤㔠ࡀ๭㧗࡟タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࡞ࡽࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡣࠊ௻ᴗࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆ㔜ࡃࡋࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡍࡿ᪉ྥ࡟ാࡁ
ᚓࡿࠋ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜࢆᑐ㇟࡟ࠊ௻ᴗ࡜ປാ⪅ࡢಶ⚊ࢆ࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࢆసᡂࡋ࡚ᐇドศᯒࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ࡜ࡇࢁࠊ௨
ୗࡢ⤖ㄽࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓࠋ➨୍࡟ࠊ኱௻ᴗࢆ୰ᚰ࡟㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປ
ാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁ࠸ࠋ➨஧࡟ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ๭ྜࡀ㧗࠸኱௻ᴗ࡞࡝ࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚┦ᑐⓗ࡟኱ࡁ࠸௻ᴗ࡯
࡝ࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥ࡟࠶ࡿࠋ
㏆ᖺࡢࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ఙࡧᝎࡳࡢ⫼ᬒ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᵝࠎ࡞せᅉࡀᣦ᦬ࡉ
ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୰࡛ࡶࠊᮏ✏ࡢ⤖ᯝࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀࠊ኱௻ᴗࢆ
୰ᚰ࡜ࡍࡿ௻ᴗࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚㐣኱࡞ࡶࡢ࡜ࡋࠊࡇ
ࢀࡀ 1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠ࡢᢚไ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜
ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
*ᮏ✏ࡢసᡂ࡟࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ⤒῭⏘ᴗ┬ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࠊཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕ஦ᴗᡤ࣭௻ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࠾ࡼࡧࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖࡢㄪᰝ⚊᝟ሗࡢᥦ౪ࢆཷࡅࡓࠋ㟷ᮌᾈ௓෸ᩍᤵ㸦ᮾி኱Ꮫ㸧࠾ࡼࡧ๓⏣ᰤ἞Ặࠊ⫧ᚋ㞞༤Ặࠊட⏣ไసẶࠊ୍℩ၿᏕẶࡣࡌࡵ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡢࢫࢱࢵࣇ࠿ࡽ㈗㔜࡞ࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ㡬ᡝࡋࡓࠋグࡋ࡚ឤㅰࡢពࢆ⾲ࡋࡓ࠸ࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊ࠶ࡾᚓ࡭ࡁㄗࡾࡣ඲࡚➹⪅ࡽ࡟ᖐࡍࡿࠋ࡞࠾ࠊᮏ✏୰ࡢពぢ࣭ゎ㔘࡟࠶ࡓࡿ㒊ศࡣ➹⪅ࡽಶே࡟ᒓࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁࡢබᘧぢゎࢆ♧ࡍࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ
†᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦saori.naganuma@ boj.or.jp㸧‡᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦shinichi.nishioka@boj.or.jp㸧
1㸯㸬 ࡣࡌࡵ࡟
ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィࡋࠊࡑࡢ஋㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀࠊ௻ᴗࡢ
㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚㐣኱࡞ࡶࡢ࡜ࡋࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡍࡿせᅉ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ࠿࡝࠺࠿ࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋ
1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠ࡣఙࡧᝎࢇࡔࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤ࡟
ࡣࠊᬒẼࡀᣑ኱ࡋࠊປാ㟂⤥ࡀࡦࡗ㏕ࡋࡓ࡟ࡶᣊࢃࡽࡎࠊ┠❧ࡗࡓ㈤㔠ࡢୖ᪼ࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢ⫼ᬒ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ໬ࡀ㐍ᒎࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡸ௻ᴗ࢞ࣂ
ࢼࣥࢫࡀኚ໬ࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀᣦ᦬ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ໬ࡢ㐍ᒎ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᕝ
ᮏ࣭⠛ᓮ㸦2009㸧ࡸᒣ⏣௚㸦2009㸧ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡀ┦ᑐⓗ࡟ప࠸᪂⯆ᅜ࡬ࡢᾏእ⏕⏘⛣⟶ࡸྛᅜ௻ᴗ㛫ࡢ➇தࡢ㧗ࡲࡾࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊⲈᮌ௚㸦2007㸧ࠊᕝᮏ࣭⠛ᓮ㸦2009㸧ࠊᒣ⏣௚㸦2009㸧ࠊ㔝⏣࣭㜿㒊㸦2010㸧ࡣࠊᰴ୺࡟ࡼࡿ࢞ࣂࢼࣥࢫࡢᙉࡲࡾࡀࠊ཰┈ᛶࡸ㓄ᙜࢆ㔜どࡍࡿഴྥࢆᙉࡵࠊ
ே௳㈝ࡢᢚไ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓ࡜୺ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥࡣࠊ
ࢃࡀᅜ࡟㝈ࡽࡎᾏእ࡛ࡶࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓ࡜࠼ࡤࠊBassanini and Manfredi (2012)ࡣࠊከࡃࡢඛ㐍ᅜ࡛ປാศ㓄⋡ࡀ㊅ໃⓗ࡟పୗࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ㈨ᮏ㈈౯᱁ࡢ
పୗࡀປാ࠿ࡽ㈨ᮏ࡬ࡢ௦᭰ࢆಁࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡸࠊඛࡢᣦ᦬࡜ྠᵝࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ໬
ࡢ㐍ᒎࡸ㈨ᮏᕷሙ࠿ࡽࡢᅽຊࡢ㧗ࡲࡾ࡞࡝ࢆࡑࡢ⫼ᬒ࡟ᣲࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
୍᪉ࠊࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢࡶ࡜࡛ປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࠊ㈤㔠
ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡍࡿ୍ᅉ࡜࡞ࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ1990 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊከࡃࡢ௻ᴗ࡛ࠊ
ே௳㈝ᢚไࡢほⅬ࠿ࡽ᪂༞᥇⏝ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࠊ௻ᴗෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࢆᣍ࠸ࡓࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤ࡟࠿ࡅ࡚ࡣࠊປാேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢୡ௦㸦1947
㹼1949 ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ㸧ࡀᐃᖺ࡟㏆࡙ࡃ࡟ࡘࢀ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡣ୍ẁ࡜㧗㱋໬ࡋࡓࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࠊ㧗㱋࡟࡞ࡿ࡯࡝㈤㔠ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿഴྥࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡣ௻ᴗࡢே௳㈝ࢆቑຍࡉࡏࡿ᪉ྥ࡟ാࡃࠋඛ⾜◊✲࡛ࡣࠊ㭯㸦2005㸧ࠊ୕㇂㸦2005㸧ࠊ㯮⏣࣭ᒣᮏ㸦2006㸧ࠊ㉥⩚࣭୰ᮧ㸦2008㸧ࠊ℈⛅௚㸦2011㸧ࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢᘬࡁୗࡆࡸ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵ
ࢺ໬࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࢆᣦ᦬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
ࡇࡇ࡛ࠊ㔜せ࡞࣏࢖ࣥࢺࡣࠊ㈤㔠ࡢ㧗ࡉࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㧗ࡉ࡟ぢྜࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ
࠿࡝࠺࠿࡜࠸࠺Ⅼ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ௬࡟ࠊᖺ㱋ࢆ㔜ࡡࡿ࡯࡝ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㧗ࡲࡾࠊ㈤㔠
ࡀࡇࢀ࡟ぢྜࡗ࡚タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࢀࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡶࠊ௻
ᴗࡢே௳㈝ࡣ⏕⏘άື࡛ᚓࡓᡂᯝ࡜ࡘࡾ࠶࠺ࡓࡵࠊே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡿࡇ
࡜ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ୍᪉ࠊ㧗㱋࡟࡞ࡿ࡯࡝㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶ๭㧗࡟࡞ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࢀ
ࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ௻ᴗࡀᨭᡶ࠺㈤㔠ࡣ⏕⏘άື࡛ᚓࡓᡂᯝࢆୖᅇࡾࠊ
2ே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡾᚓࡿࠋᕝཱྀ௚㸦2007㸧ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ〇㐀ᴗ࡟࠾࠸࡚㈤㔠
࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁ࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ࡟♧ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㧗㱋࡟࡞ࡿ࡯࡝ࠊ㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶ๭㧗࡟࡞ࡿ࡜୺ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
ᮏ✏ࡢ୺ࡓࡿ㛵ᚰ஦ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࡓ௻ᴗ࡯࡝ࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚㐣኱࡜࡞ࡾࠊࡇࡢࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ௻ᴗࡣ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸࠿
࡜࠸࠺Ⅼ࡟࠶ࡿࠋୖグࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊࡇࢀ࡟㢮ࡍࡿศᯒࡣከ࠸ࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃࡛ࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ┤᥋ィࡋࡓ◊✲ࡣぢᙜࡓࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊ௻ᴗ࡜ປാ⪅ࢆࡦࡶ࡙ࡅࡓಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈ࡜ࡢ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࢆィ ࡋࠊࡇࢀࡀ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ࡟᳨ドࡍࡿࠋᮏ✏ࡢᵓᡂࡣḟࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ2 ⠇࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛵ಀ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⌮ㄽⓗ࡞ᩚ⌮ࢆ⾜࠺࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ࡢືྥࡸ㐣ཤࡢ⡿ᅜࡢ஦౛࡟
ࡘ࠸࡚㏙࡭ࡿࠋ3 ⠇࡛ࡣࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈ࡜ࡢ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࢆィ ࡋࠊࡇ
ࢀࡀ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆᐇドࡍࡿࠋ᭱ᚋ࡟ 4 ⠇࡛⤖ㄽࢆ㏙࡭ࡿࠋ㸰㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛵ಀ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌮ㄽ࡜ࡑࡢືྥ
㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢᙧ≧࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ࡢ㛵ಀࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ⌮ㄽ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠
௬ㄝࡀࡼࡃ▱ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢ௬ㄝࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࠊᐃᖺ㏥⫋࡜࠸ࡗࡓࢃࡀᅜ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ≉ᚩࢆྜ⌮ⓗ࡟ㄝ࡛᫂ࡁࡿ࡯࠿ࠊᐇド㠃࡛ࡶࡑࡢጇᙜᛶࡀ
ᨭᣢࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊࡑࡢᴫせࢆㄝ᫂ࡋࡓ࠶࡜ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀ㛗ᮇⓗ࡟Ꮡ⥆ࡍࡿせ௳ࡸࡑࡢせ௳ࡀᔂࢀࡓሙྜࠊ㈤㔠ࡸ㞠⏝࡟࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࡀ⏕ࡌᚓࡿ࠿ࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢືྥࡸ㐣ཤࡢ⡿ᅜࡢ஦౛ࢆᣲࡆࡿࠋ
㸰㸫㸯㸬ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ㸦㸯㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢᴫせ
ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶഴࡁࡀᛴ࡞ྑୖࡀࡾ࡟タᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢࡸࡿẼࢆᘬࡁฟࡍࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜ࡍࡿㄝ
࡛ࠊLazear (1979) ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᥦၐࡉࢀࡓ1ࠋලయⓗ࡟ࡣࠊ௻ᴗࡣࠊⱝᖺᮇ࡟ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࢆୗᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆࠊ㧗㱋ᮇ࡟ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࢆୖᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆᨭᡶ࠸ࠊᐃᖺ᫬࡟ࡣ

1

ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊ
ࠕ࢖ࣥࢭࣥࢸ࢕ࣈዎ⣙௬ㄝࠖࠊࠕᬯ㯲ⓗዎ⣙௬ㄝࠖࡸࠕಖド㔠✚❧௬ㄝࠖ࡜ࡶ࿧ࡤࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
3ධ♫௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࢆ⏕⏘⥲㢠࡟୍⮴ࡉࡏࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᬯ㯲ࡢዎ⣙ࢆປാ⪅࡜⤖ࡪ㸦ᅗ⾲ 1㸧
ࠋࡇࡢዎ⣙ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀⱝᖺᮇ࡟௻ᴗ࡟ᑐࡍࡿമᶒࢆಖ᭷ࡋࠊ㧗㱋ᮇ࡟ࡑࡢമᶒࢆᅇ཰ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡜ྠ⩏࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢዎ⣙ࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࠊ௬࡟ࠊປാ⪅ࡀᛰᴗ࡞࡝࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ゎ㞠ࡉࢀࡓሙྜࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛࡟ཷࡅྲྀࡗ࡚ࡁࡓ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ⏕⏘⥲㢠࡟‶ࡓ࡞࠸㸦മᶒࢆᅇ཰ࡋࡁࢀ࡞࠸㸧ࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊປാ⪅࡟ࡣࠊゎ㞠ࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࡼ࠺ᠱ࿨࡟ാࡃ࢖ࣥࢭࣥࢸ࢕ࣈࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ௻ᴗࡀປാ⪅ࡢ໅ົែᗘࢆ༑ศ࡟ᢕᥱ࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊປാ⪅ࡢ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿࠋ
ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞㞠⏝㛵ಀ
ࡸᐃᖺ㏥⫋ไᗘࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿ⌮⏤࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶྜ⌮ⓗ࡞ㄝ᫂ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡾࠊࢃࡀᅜ
ࡢ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ≉ᚩࢆẚ㍑ⓗ࠺ࡲࡃᤊ࠼࡚࠸ࡿ࡜࠸࠼ࡿ2ࠋᐇド◊✲࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ
Okazaki (1993) ࡀࠊ኱௻ᴗ〇㐀ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ40 ṓ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀ
ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㏆ᖺࡢ◊✲࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊᕝཱྀ௚㸦2007㸧ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ〇㐀ᴗࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁ࠸࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊKodama and Odaki (2012) ࡛ࡣࠊᐃᖺ࡟㏆࠸㧗༞⏨ᛶࡢ㈤㔠ࡣ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ 2 ๭⛬ᗘୖᅇࡿ࡜ࡢ⤖ㄽࢆᚓ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
㸦㸰㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢᡂ❧せ௳࡜㈤㔠࡬ࡢᙳ㡪
ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁࡃタᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗࠸⏕⏘ᛶࢆᘬࡁฟࡍࡇ࡜ࢆ㦵Ꮚ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡟஋㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࡓࡵࠊࡇࡢㄝ࡟ࡶ࡜࡙ࡃ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀ㛗ᮇⓗ࡟Ꮡ⥆ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࡣࠊࡓ࡜࠼ࡤࠊḟࡢࡼ࠺࡞せ௳ࡀᚲせ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ
ձປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ⥔ᣢ
ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࡣࠊⱝᖺᮇ࡟ࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㈤㔠ࢆୖᅇࡾࠊࡑࡢ
ᚋࡶධ♫᫬Ⅼ࡛᝿ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㏥⫋᫬Ⅼࡲ୍࡛ᐃ௨ୖ࡟ಖࡓࢀࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ௬࡟ࠊ࠶ࡿ᫬Ⅼ࡛ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀணᮇࡏࡊࡿ࠿ࡓࡕ࡛పୗࡋࡓ
ሙྜࠊ௻ᴗ࡟࡜ࡗ࡚ࡣᙜึ᝿ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ㈤㔠ࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊዎ⣙ࢆ⥅⥆ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀࡴࡎ࠿ࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ

2ྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ᭷ຊ࡞௬ㄝ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢ࡯࠿࡟ேⓗ㈨ᮏ௬
ㄝ㸦Becker (1964)㸧ࡀᣲࡆࡽࢀࡿࠋேⓗ㈨ᮏ௬ㄝ࡛ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡣࠊⱝᖺ᫬࡟௻ᴗෆカ⦎ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚௻ᴗ≉Ṧⓗ࡞ᢏ⬟ࢆ㌟࡟ࡘࡅࠊ୰㧗ᖺ࡟࠿ࡅ࡚㧗࠸⏕⏘ᛶ࡜㈤㔠ࢆᚓࡿࡓࡵࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣྑୖࡀࡾ࡜࡞ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧ࡀᣦ᦬ࡍࡿ࡜࠾ࡾࠊேⓗ㈨ᮏ௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢഴࡁࡢ᪉ࡀࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡜࡞ࡾࠊࡇࡢⅬࡣࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡜␗࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
4ղປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫ☜ಖ
ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢ㐠⏝ࢆࠊࠕ✚❧᪉ᘧࠖ㸦௻ᴗࡀ࠶ࡿປാ⪅ࡢ㧗ᖺᮇ࡟ᨭᡶ࠺࡭ࡁ㈤㔠ࢆࠊࡑࡢປാ⪅ࡀⱝᖺᮇࡢ࠺ࡕ࡟✚ࡳ❧࡚࡚࠾ࡃࡇ࡜㸧࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࠕ㈿ㄢ᪉ᘧࠖ㸦㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ✌ࡂࢆୖᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆୖᅇࡿ✌ࡂ࡛ᨭᡶ࠺ࡇ࡜㸧࡛⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿሙྜࠊປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆ㐺ษ࡟ࣂࣛࣥࢫࡉࡏࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ௬࡟ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢẚ⋡ࡀ㐣ᗘ࡟㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓሙྜࠊ௻ᴗ඲యࡢ⏕⏘㢠࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊ
ዎ⣙ࢆ⥅⥆ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀࡴࡎ࠿ࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ
ࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊ㛗ᮇ࡟ࢃࡓࡗ࡚Ᏻᐃⓗ࡞ᡂ㛗ࡀぢ㎸ࡵࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࢆᖖ᫬㞠⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࢆ๓ᥦ࡜ࡋࡓྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿࠋ୍᪉ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀண᝿ࡼࡾࡶపୗࡋࡓሙྜࡸປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡀ㐣ᗘ࡟㧗㱋໬ࡍࡿሙྜࠊ௻ᴗࡢ⏕⏘⥲㢠࡟ẚ࡭࡚㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡿ㸦୍ே࠶ࡓࡾࡢ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡟஋㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿ㸧ࠋࡇࡢ࡜ࡁࠊ௻ᴗࡣࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࢆゎᾘࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵࠊձ㈤㔠ࡀ๭㧗࡞㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࢆゎ㞠ࡍࡿࠊղᐃᖺ㏥⫋ᖺ㱋ࢆᘬࡁୗࡆࡿࠊճ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆᘬࡁୗࡆࡘ
ࡘ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡉࡏࡿ࡞࡝ࠊᬯ㯲ࡢዎ⣙ࢆ⿬ษࡿ࢖ࣥࢭࣥࢸ࢕ࣈࡀ
⏕ࡌࡿ3ࠋ
㸰㸫㸰㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢືྥ
㸦㸯㸧ࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡢືࡁ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊୖグࡢ௬ㄝࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼࡞ࡀࡽ஦ᐇ㛵ಀࡢᩚ⌮ࢆ⾜࠺ࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊ1970 ᖺ௨㝆ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡀ⥆࠸࡚࠸ࡿ4㸦ᅗ⾲ 2㸧ࠋ1970 ᖺ௦࠿ࡽ 1980 ᖺ௦࡟࠿ࡅ࡚ࡣࠊ55 ṓᐃᖺไ࠿ࡽ 60 ṓᐃᖺไ࡬ࡢ⛣⾜ࡀ㐍ࡳࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅࡬ࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㧗ࡲࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࠊࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡢせᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ᣦ᦬ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Clark and Ogawa (1992)㸧ࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊࡇࡢᙜ᫬ࡣ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀ㧗ࡃࠊ㈤㔠ࡢỈ‽⮬యࡣୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 3㸧ࠋ1990 ᖺ௦࡟ධࡿ࡜ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ୍ẁ࡜ࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙ3ࡇࡢ࡯࠿ࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࢆ᪂ࡓ࡟㞠⏝ࡋࠊࡑࡢ࢚࢘࢖ࢺࢆᘬࡁୖࡆࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆಖࡘࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀప఩࡞ࡶ࡜࡛ࠊⱝᖺປാ౪⤥ࡢ⦰ᑠࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿሙྜࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢቑຍࡣᑗ᮶ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆ࠿࠼ࡗ࡚ᝏ໬ࡉࡏࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ

4ࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊ➨୍ḟୡ⏺኱ᡓᚋࠊ㔜ᕤᴗศ㔝ࡢⓎᒎ࡟ࡼࡾࠊ⇍⦎ᕤࡢ⫱ᡂ࡜ᐃ╔ࡀㄢ㢟࡜ࡉࢀࠊ1930 ᖺࡈࢁࡲ࡛࡟ࡣ㈈㛸⣔኱௻ᴗࢆ୰ᚰ࡟ᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀᑟධࡉࢀࡓ㸦୕㇂㸦1997㸧㸧ࠋ➨஧ḟୡ⏺኱ᡓᚋࡢ㧗ᗘᡂ㛗ᮇ࡟ࡣࠊ㧗࠸⤒῭ᡂ㛗࡜㇏ᐩ࡞ⱝᖺປാ౪⤥ࢆ⫼ᬒ࡟ࠊᖺຌ
㈤㔠ไᗘࢆࡣࡌࡵ࡜ࡍࡿ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜ࡀ኱௻ᴗࢆ୰ᚰ࡟☜❧࣭ᬑཬࡋࡓࠋ
5ࡧࡣప㏞ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ⫼ᬒ࡟ࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀప㏞ࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀ㐍ࢇࡔࡇ࡜ࡀࠊ௻ᴗࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆቑຍࡉࡏࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ࡋࡓ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓⅬࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࠊࢃࡀᅜ௻ᴗࡢປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡣࠊ
1990 ᖺࡈࢁ࠿ࡽᶓࡤ࠸࡟㌿ࡌ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ௻ᴗࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀቑࡋࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 4㸧ࠋࡲࡓࠊ1990 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊᑡᏊ㧗㱋໬ࡢὶࢀࡀᙉࡲࡿ୰࡛ࠊປാேཱྀࡢ
ከ࠸ᅋሢୡ௦ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡸࠊከࡃࡢ௻ᴗࡀ᪂༞᥇⏝ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽࠊ
ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀ㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 5㸧ࠋປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡣࠊே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍ
ࢆᚋᢲࡋࡋࡓ࡜ࡳࡽࢀࠊࡓ࡜࠼ࡤࠊ50 ṓ௦ᚋ༙ࡢே௳㈝ࡣࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤ࡟ࡣ
1990 ᖺࡢ 2 ಸ௨ୖ࡟㐩ࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 6㸧ࠋࡇ࠺ࡋࡓே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍࢆཷࡅ࡚ࠊ୍㒊ࡢ௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ୰㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋࡓ᪩ᮇ㏥⫋ไᗘࡢᑟධ࡞࡝ࠊே௳㈝ᢚไ࡟ྥࡅࡓᑐᛂࡀᅗࡽࢀࡓࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊ
ᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࢆぢ┤ࡋࠊᡂᯝ୺⩏ไᗘࢆᑟධࡍࡿືࡁࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿ୰࡛ࠊከࡃࡢ
௻ᴗࡀ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࢆ㐍ࡵࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 7㸧ࠋඛࡢᣦ᦬ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ௬࡟ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀጇᙜࡍࡿ࡞ࡽࡤࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢప㏞ࡸປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡣࠊࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ㞠⏝࣭㈤㔠⎔ቃࡢኚ໬ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ
ᅋሢୡ௦ࡀᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࢆ㏄࠼ࡓ 2000 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊ㧗㱋໬࡟ࡼࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢ
ቑຍࡣࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇⴠࡕ╔࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊඛ⾜ࡁࡣࠊປാேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢࢪ
ࣗࢽ࢔ୡ௦㸦1970 ᖺ௦๓༙⏕ࡲࢀ㸧ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡍࡿࠋࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣࣇࣛ
ࢵࢺ໬ࡋࡓ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊ⡿Ḣㅖᅜ࡜ẚ࡭ࡿ࡜࡞࠾ࡶࢫࢸ࢕࣮ࣉ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ㋃ࡲ
࠼ࡿ࡜ࠊ௻ᴗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡸ᪂༞᥇⏝ࡢືྥḟ➨࡛ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀ෌ࡧே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆᢲࡋୖࡆࡿᒁ㠃࡟ධࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿ5㸦ᅗ⾲ 8㸧ࠋ㸦㸰㸧⡿ᅜࡢ஦౛
ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᖺຌ㈤㔠ࡸ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢኚ໬ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ࡟㝈ࡗࡓヰ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡓ࡜
࠼ࡤࠊ⡿ᅜ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ1920 ᖺ௦ࡈࢁࡲ࡛ࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝࣭ᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ௻ᴗࡀᑡ࡞ࡃ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋU.S. Steel ࡸ General Electric ࡞࡝ࡢ኱௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ
໅⥆ᖺᩘࡸᖺ㱋࡟ᛂࡌࡓ㈤㔠ᨭ⤥ࡸෆ㒊᪼㐍ࡢ࡯࠿ࠊ௻ᴗෆ෌㓄⨨࡟ࡼࡿࣞ࢖
࢜ࣇᅇ㑊࡞࡝ࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜࡜㢮ఝࡢࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡀ᥇⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ࡜
ᣦ᦬ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ6㸦୰㤿㸦1987㸧㸧ࠋࡶࡗ࡜ࡶࠊ1929 ᖺࡢ኱ᜍៃࢆዎᶵ࡟≧ἣࡣ୍ኚࡋࡓࠋᙜึࡇࡑࠊ௻ᴗࡣ㞠⏝ࡢ☜ಖࡸ㈤㔠ࡢ⥔ᣢ࡟ດࡵࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊ୙ἣࡀ㛗
5௻ᴗࢆྲྀࡾᕳࡃ⎔ቃࡀ኱ࡁࡃኚ໬ࡋࡓ࡟ࡶᣊࢃࡽࡎࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀ኱ࡁ࠸
Ⅼ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧ࡣࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࢆ๓ᥦ࡜ࡋࡓࢃࡀᅜࡢゎ㞠ἲไࡸ㐣ཤ࡟⵳✚ࡉࢀࡓேⓗ㈨ᮏ࣭⤒Ⴀࣀ࢘ࣁ࢘ࡢ⥅ᢎ࡞࡝ࢆ⫼ᬒ࡟ࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀ᰿ᙉࡃṧ
ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿⅬࢆᣦ᦬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

6ࡑࡢ࡯࠿࡟ࡶࠊ௻ᴗࡀ♫Ꮿࡸࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕ⚟฼ཌ⏕᪋タࠊკク་ไᗘࠊ♫ෆࡢᩍ⫱ᶵ㛵ࠊྛ✀ಖ㝤ไᗘ࡞࡝ࢆᥦ౪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࡀሗ࿌ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
6ᘬࡃ࡟ࡘࢀ࡚ࠊ኱つᶍ࡞ேဨᩚ⌮ࡸ㈤㔠ࡢᘬࡁୗࡆࢆవ൤࡞ࡃࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ1990
ᖺ௦௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜ࡜ఝࡓࡼ࠺࡞⌧㇟ࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓࠋ
ࡑࡢᚋࠊ⡿ᅜ࡛ࡣᚑ᮶ࡢ㞠⏝ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢぢ┤ࡋࡀᚎࠎ࡟㐍ࢇࡔࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀ኱ࡁࡃపୗࡋࡓ 1970 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊ௻ᴗࡢࣜࢫࢺࣛࢡࢳࣕࣜࣥࢢࡀάⓎ໬ࡋࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ዎ⣙࡟ࡶ࡜࡙ࡃᖺຌ㈤㔠య⣔ࡣࠊ࡯࡜ࢇ࡝ࡳࡽࢀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜
࠸ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Cappelli (2001)㸧
ࠋᐇ㝿ࠊ⡿ᅜ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣࠊᚎࠎ
࡟ࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 9㸧ࠋ㸱㸬ᐇドศᯒ ๓⠇࡛ࡣࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡍࡿࡶ࡜࡛ࡣࠊணᮇࡏࡊࡿປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢప㏞ࡸປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀ⏕ࡌࡓሙྜࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵࢺ໬ࡸ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไ
ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆᣦ᦬ࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆᕠࡿ஦ᐇ㛵ಀࢆᩚ⌮ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ⠇࡛ࡣࠊᐇ㝿࡟ࠊ
ࠕ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡀ኱ࡁ࠸௻ᴗ࡯࡝ࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡓࠖྍ⬟ᛶࢆᐇドࡍࡿࠋᐇ
ドศᯒࡣ஧ẁ㝵࡛⾜࠺ࠋ➨୍ẁ㝵࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆࡑࢀ
ࡒࢀ᥎ᐃࡋࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈ࡜ࡢ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ᖜࢆィ ࡍࡿࠋ➨஧ẁ㝵࡛ࡣࠊࡇࡢ஋㞳ᖜࡢ኱ࡁࡉࡀປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋࡓ࠿࡝࠺࠿᳨
ドࡍࡿࠋ㸱㸫㸯㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢ஋㞳ࡢィᐇドศᯒࡢ➨୍ẁ㝵࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ௻ᴗつᶍู࣭⏘ᴗูࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࠊࡑࡢ஋㞳ᖜࢆィ ࡍࡿ7ࠋ㸦㸯㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱィ ࡟౑⏝ࡍࡿࢹ࣮ࢱࡣࠊཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡜⤒῭⏘ᴗ┬ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࡢಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢ࠺ࡕࠊ
ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡢಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱ࠿ࡽࡣࠊປാ⪅ಶேࣞ࣋ࣝࡢປാ᫬㛫࣭㈤㔠ࡸࠊᛶู࣭ᖺ㱋࣭ᏛṔ࡞࡝ࡢᒓᛶ᝟ሗࡢ࡯࠿ࠊປാ⪅ࡀᡤᒓࡍࡿ௻ᴗࡢ⏘ᴗ࣭ᚑᴗဨつᶍࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖ࠿ࡽࡣࠊಶู௻ᴗࡢ௜ຍ౯್㢠ࠊ⤥୚⥲㢠ࠊ㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡ㸦ᅛᐃ㈨ᮏᙧᡂ㸧ࠊ⤒ᖖ฼┈ࠊタ❧ᖺࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢ࠺࠼࡛ࠊ
ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡜ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࡢ஧ࡘࡢಶ⚊7ィ᪉ἲࡣࠊᴫࡡᕝཱྀ௚㸦2007㸧࡟࡞ࡽࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
7ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡋ࡚⤫୍ⓗ࡞ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࢆసᡂࡍࡿ8ࠋᐇドศᯒ࡛ࡣࠊ௻
ᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢᩍ⫱ᖺᩘู࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูࡢ⥲ປാ᫬㛫ࡀᚲせ࡜࡞ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ
ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡢಶேࣞ࣋ࣝࡢປാ᫬㛫ࢆ௻ᴗู࡟㞟ィࡋࠊࡇࢀࢆປാ⪅ᢳฟ⋡࡜஦ᴗᡤつᶍ࣭௻ᴗつᶍẚ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸࡚௻ᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ⥲ປാ᫬㛫࡬࡜⭾ࡽࡲࡋࡓ9ࠋࡇࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࡣࠊᶆᮏᮇ㛫ࡀ 1998 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺࠊᶆᮏ௻ᴗᩘࡀᘏ࡭ 22,847♫ࠊປാ⪅ᩘࡀᘏ࡭ 806,235 ேࡢࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝ࡛ࠖࡣࠊㄪᰝᑐ㇟ࢆẖᖺὙ࠸᭰࠼ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊ」ᩘᖺ࡟ࢃࡓࡗ࡚⥅⥆ⓗ࡟ㄪᰝࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ௻ᴗࡀᑡ࡞࠸࡯࠿ࠊປാ⪅ಶேࡶᇶᮏⓗ࡟ẖᖺධࢀ᭰ࢃࡿࠋ
ࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࡣࠊ᫬⣔ิ᪉ྥ࡬ࡢḞ ್ࡀከ࠸␲ఝࣃࢿࣝࢹ
࣮ࢱ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
㸦㸰㸧᥎ᐃ᪉ἲ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆィ ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࠊḟࡢ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ࡜㈤㔠㛵ᩘࢆ᥎ᐃࡍࡿࠋ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࡣࢥࣈ࣭ࢲࢢࣛࢫᆺࢆ࣮࣋ࢫ࡜ࡋࡓࠋ
㸦⏕⏘㛵ᩘ㸧log yit(1  E ) * ¦¦ log lhi ,ed ,age,t  exp(D1  D 2  ed  D3  age  D 4  (age2 / 100))
ed age㸩E log Kit  d _ year  d _ establishment㸩uit
㸦㈤㔠㛵ᩘ㸧log witJ 0  ¦¦ log lhi ,ed ,age,t  exp(J 1  J 2  ed  J 3  age  J 4  (age 2 / 100))
ed age d _ year  d _ establishment  H itࡇࡇ࡛ࠊyit ࡣ i ௻ᴗࡢ t ᖺ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ௜ຍ౯್㢠ࠊlhi,ed,age,t ࡣ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢᏛᰯ
8࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡢࡓࡵ࡟ࡣࠊ
ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡟࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡀࠊࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖ
ࡢ࡝ࡢ௻ᴗ࡟ᒓࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࠿ࢆ≉ᐃࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡀࠊ୧⪅࡟ࡣඹ㏻ࡢ஦ᴗᡤ␒ྕࡀ࡞
࠸ࠋࡇࡢࡓࡵࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖ㸦ᪧࠕ஦ᴗᡤ࣭௻ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊ
ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖ࡟࠾ࡅࡿಶู௻ᴗࡢ㒔㐨ᗓ┴␒ྕࠊᕷ༊⏫ᮧ␒ྕࠊㄪᰝ༊␒ྕࠊ஦ᴗᡤ␒ྕ
ࢆᢕᥱࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡟࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡀ࡝ࡢ௻ᴗ࡟ᒓࡍࡿࡢ࠿ࢆ≉ᐃࡋࡓࠋࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡟ࡣࠊࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖ㸦ᪧࠕ஦ᴗᡤ࣭௻ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ㸧
࡜ඹ㏻ࡢ㒔㐨ᗓ┴␒ྕࠊᕷ༊⏫ᮧ␒ྕࠊㄪᰝ༊␒ྕࠊ஦ᴗᡤ␒ྕࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࡇࡢ᪉
ἲ࡛࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ

9

஦ᴗᡤつᶍ࣭௻ᴗつᶍẚ⋡ࡣࠊ
ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡀ஦ᴗᡤࣞ࣋ࣝࠊ
ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏ
ㄪᰝࠖࡀ௻ᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ⤫ィ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋ8ᩍ⫱ᖺᩘ㸦ed㸧ู10࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙ㸦age㸧ู11ࡢປാᢞධ᫬㛫ࠊKit ࡣ㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡࠊ
wit ࡣ⤥୚⥲㢠ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋࡇࡢ࡯࠿ࠊᖺࢲ࣑࣮ d_year ࠊ௻ᴗࡢタ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮
㸦d_establishment㸧12ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚ຍ࠼ࡓࠋuit ࡜ İit ࡣㄗᕪ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋ௜ຍ౯
್࣭㈤㔠࡜ᖺ㱋ࡢ㛵ಀࡀ㠀⥺ᙧ࡛࠶ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢㄝ᫂ኚᩘ
࡟ᖺ㱋ࡢ 1 ḟ㡯࡜ 2 ḟ㡯ࢆධࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣ Į3 ࡜
Į4 ࡢ኱ࡁࡉ࡛ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ Ȗ3 ࡜ Ȗ4 ࡢ኱ࡁࡉ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ⾲ࢃࡉࢀࡿࠋ ඲⏘ᴗ࣭඲つᶍࡢ࡯࠿ࠊ௻ᴗつᶍࡸ⏘ᴗ࡟ࡼࡿᕪࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊ௻ᴗつᶍู㸦኱௻ᴗࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ㸧࣭⏘ᴗู㸦〇㐀ᴗࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ㸧࡟᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ13ࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࠊ
኱௻ᴗ࡜ࡣᚑᴗဨᩘ 1,000 ே௨ୖࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ࡜ࡣࡑࢀ௨እࡢ௻ᴗࢆᣦࡍࠋᅗ
⾲ 10㸦ୖẁ㸧࡛ࡣࠊグ㏙⤫ィ㔞ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᥎ᐃ᪉ἲࡣࠊ㠀⥺ᙧ᭱ᑠ஧஌ἲ
࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㸦㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࡢ㈨ᮏᢞධ࡟࠿࠿ࡿࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦ȕ㸧 ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ⾲ 11 ࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
ࡣࠊ඲⏘ᴗ࡛ 0.7 ༙ࡤࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࡛ 0.7㹼0.8 ྎࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ࡛ 0.5㹼0.6 ⛬ᗘ࡛᭷ព࡜
࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠㛵ᩘ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᏛᰯᩍ⫱ᖺᩘࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Ȗ2㸧ࡣࠊṇ࡛᭷ព࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㧗ᏛṔ࡟࡞ࡿ࡯࡝㈤㔠ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᏛᰯᩍ⫱ᖺᩘࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Į2㸧ࡣࠊ඲⏘ᴗࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࡛㈇࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ
ᏛṔࡢ㧗ࡉࡀᚲࡎࡋࡶ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㧗ࡉࢆ⾲ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ࡛ࡣṇ࡛᭷ព࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᏛṔࡀ㧗࠸࡯࡝⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁ࡟㛵ࡍࡿࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Į3࣭Į4ࠊȖ3࣭Ȗ4㸧ࢆࡳࡿ࡜ࠊ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࠊ㈤㔠㛵ᩘ࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊ1 ḟ㡯ࡣṇࠊ2 ḟ㡯ࡣ㈇࡛᭷ព࡜࡞ࡗ࡚
࠸ࡿ14ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ௜ຍ౯್࣭㈤㔠ࡣᖺ㱋ࡀୖࡀࡿ࡟ࡘࢀ࡚ୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡀࠊࡑࡢ
ୖ᪼⋡ࡣ㏴ῶࡍࡿ࡯࠿ࠊ࠶ࡿᖺ㱋࡛పୗ࡟㌿ࡌᚓࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋປാ
⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡢ㐪࠸ࡣࠊ1 ḟ㡯ࠊ2 ḟ㡯ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏ࡜ᖺ㱋Ỉ‽࡟౫Ꮡࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ኱ࡁࡉࢆẚ㍑ࡋ࡚
10

ed ࡣ 9 ᖺ㸦୰༞㸧ࠊ12 ᖺ㸦㧗༞㸧ࠊ14 ᖺ㸦㧗ᑓ࣭▷኱༞㸧ࠊ16 ᖺ㸦኱༞௨ୖ㸧ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋ11age ࡣ 15㹼19 ṓࠊ20㹼24 ṓࠊ25㹼29 ṓࠊ30㹼34 ṓࠊ35㹼39 ṓࠊ40㹼44 ṓࠊ45㹼49 ṓࠊ
50㹼54 ṓࠊ55㹼59 ṓࡢ 5 ṓ้ࡳᖺ㱋ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋ㈤㔠య⣔ࡣࠊᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࢆ㏄࠼ࡿ 60 ṓ௦௨㝆኱ࡁࡃኚ໬ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊᮏ✏࡛ศᯒᑐ㇟࡜ࡍࡿᖺ㱋༊ศࡣࠊ15㹼59 ṓ࡟㝈ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

12

῝ᑿ࣭ᶒ㸦2011㸧ࡀࠊ♫㱋࡟ࡼࡗ࡚௻ᴗࡢ⏕⏘ᛶ㸦TFP㸧ࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆᣦ᦬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡯
࠿ࠊ⊦ᮌ㸦2001㸧ࡸຬୖ࣭᳃ᮏ㸦2006㸧ࡣࠊ♫㱋࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㈤㔠య⣔࣭㞠⏝័⾜ࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇ
࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼࡚ࠊ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ࠾ࡼࡧ㈤㔠㛵ᩘ࡟௻ᴗࡢタ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ࢆຍ
࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

13

඲⏘ᴗ࣭඲つᶍࡢ᥎ᐃᘧ࡟ࡣࠊ኱⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮࠾ࡼࡧ௻ᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮ࢆຍ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

14ᖺ㱋ࡢ 3 ḟ㡯௨ୖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᏳᐃⓗ࡟᭷ព࡞⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋ
9ࡶࠊ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡢᕪࡣ୍ᴫ࡟ホ౯࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ᅗ⾲ 12 ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆどぬⓗ࡟♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊᕝཱྀ௚㸦2007㸧࡜ྠᵝࠊ
15㹼19 ṓ᫬Ⅼࡢ㈤㔠ࢆ 1 ࡜ᇶ‽໬ࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊ⏕ᾭࡢ㈤㔠⥲㢠࡜⏕⏘⥲㢠ࡀ୍⮴ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟ᅗ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
኱௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࣭㠀〇㐀ᴗ࡜ࡶ࡟㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁ࠸ࠋ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ 40 ṓ௦࡛ࣆ࣮ࢡ࡜࡞ࡾࠊ50 ṓ௦࡛⦆ࡸ࠿࡟
పୗࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶࡸࡸ᪩࠸ࢱ࢖࣑ࣥࢢ࡛ࣆ
࣮ࢡࢆ㏄࠼ࠊ50 ṓ௦࡟࠿ࡅ࡚పୗᖜࡀ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊⱝᖺᮇࡢ㈤㔠࡟ẚ࡭࡚ࠊ㧗ᖺᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࡢ᪉ࡀࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚๭㧗࡟タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠾
ࡾࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡜ᩚྜⓗ࡞⤖ᯝ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ୍᪉ࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ
〇㐀ᴗ࡟࠾࠸࡚㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣᴫࡡ୍⮴ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡯࠿ࠊ
㠀〇㐀ᴗ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢᖺ㱋㛫ࡢ஋㞳ࡣ኱௻ᴗ࡟ẚ࡭ࢀࡤᑠࡉ
࠸ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊ኱௻ᴗ࡟ࡼࡾ㐺ࡋࡓ௬ㄝ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜࠸࠼ࡿࠋ
ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡣࠊ〇㐀ᴗࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁ
ࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓᕝཱྀ௚㸦2007㸧࡞࡝ࡢඛ⾜◊✲࡜ࡶᴫࡡᩚྜⓗ࡛࠶ࡿ15ࠋࡲࡓࠊୖሙ௻ᴗࡢே஦࣭ປົᢸᙜ⪅ࢆᑐ㇟࡟࢔ࣥࢣ࣮ࢺㄪᰝࢆ⾜ࡗࡓබ┈㈈ᅋἲே᪥ᮏ⏕⏘ᛶᮏ㒊㸦2013㸧࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊ௙஦ࡢᡂᯝ࣭㈉⊩ᗘ࡟ẚ࡭࡚㈤㔠ࡀ㧗࠸ᖺ㱋ᒙ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ50 ṓ௦࡜⟅࠼ࡓ௻ᴗࡀ 4 ๭ࠊ40 ṓ௦ࡀ 3 ๭ࠊ20㹼30 ṓ
௦ࡣ 1 ๭ᮍ‶࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡣࠊࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ࢔ࣥࢣ࣮ࢺㄪᰝ࡜
ࡶᩚྜⓗ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
㸱㸫㸰㸬㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪 ᐇドศᯒࡢ➨஧ẁ㝵࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡢ኱ࡁࡉࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡࡟࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋࡓ࠿ࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ࡟ศᯒࡍࡿࠋ࠶ࡿ௻ᴗ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡣࠊ3㸫1 ⠇࡛᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢ஋㞳ࢆࡶ࡜࡟⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿࠋ

15ᾏእ࡛ࡢᐇド⤖ᯝࢆࡳࡿ࡜ࠊHellerstein and Neumark (1995) ࡣ࢖ࢫ࢚ࣛࣝࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࠊ
Hellerstein et al. (1999) ࡣ⡿ᅜࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ࡜㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁ࡟ࡣᕪ
ࡀ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠋ୍᪉ࠊHellerstein and Neumark (2004) ࡛ࡣࠊࡼࡾ኱つᶍ࡞⡿ᅜࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡿ࡜ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡛ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋྠᵝࡢᯟ⤌ࡳ࡛ࠊVan Ours and Stoeldraijer (2010) ࡣࢻ࢖ࢶ࡛ྠ௬
ㄝࡣᡂ❧ࡋ࡞࠸࡜ࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊCrépon et al. (2002) ࡣࣇࣛࣥࢫࠊDostie (2011) ࡣ࢝ࢼࢲࠊ
Ilmakunnas and Maliranta (2005) ࡣࣇ࢕ࣥࣛࣥࢻࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊྠ௬ㄝࡢᡂ❧ࢆᨭᣢࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
10㸦㸯㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ

3㸫1 ⠇࡛౑⏝ࡋࡓࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࡜ࠕ௻ᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࢆ࣐ࢵ
ࢳࣥࢢࡋࡓ␲ఝࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡋࠊࡇࢀ࡟ኻᴗ⋡ࡸᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ࡜࠸ࡗ
ࡓ࣐ࢡࣟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ᥋ྜࡋࡓࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡿ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡ࡣࠊ࠶ࡿᖺ࡜
ࡑࡢ๓ᖺ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊձ௻ᴗࠊղᛶูࠊճᏛṔࠊմ໅⥆ᖺᩘࠊյᑵᴗᙧែࠊնᖺ
㱋ࡢ 6 ࡘࡢᒓᛶࡀࡍ࡭࡚ඹ㏻ࡍࡿ஧ேࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠࠿ࡽ⟬ฟࡋࡓ16ࠋ᥎ᐃ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊ3㸫
1 ⠇࡛᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ࠿ࡽᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈ࡜࡟୧⪅ࡢ஋㞳ࢆ⟬ฟࡋࠊࡇࡢ஋㞳࡟ಶู௻ᴗ࡟࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆ஌ࡌ࡚⟬ฟࡍࡿࠋ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ࠶ࡿ௻ᴗࡀᒓࡍࡿつᶍู㸦኱௻ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰
ᑠ௻ᴗ㸧࣭⏘ᴗู㸦〇㐀ᴗ࣭㠀〇㐀ᴗ㸧ࡢࡶࡢࢆ㐺⏝ࡍࡿ17ࠋࡲࡓࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫୰㸦1998 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺ㸧ࠊ୍ᐃ࡜௬ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ18ࠋ㸦㸰㸧᥎ᐃ᪉ἲ

ḟᘧࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡍࡿ㛵ᩘࢆ᥎ᐃࡍࡿ19ࠋ

d log wit

S 0  S 1  d log Pit  S 2  d log CPI t 1  S 3  dUEit  S 4  WageGapi ,t 1
 d _ female  d _ education  d _ year㸩H it

dlogwit ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ໬⋡㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊձ᫬
㛫࠶ࡓࡾᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࠊղ᫬㛫࠶ࡓࡾᐃᮇ⤥୚㸦ᡤᐃෆ⤥୚㸩ᡤᐃእ⤥୚㸧ࠊճ≉ู⤥୚ࡢ 3 ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋ

ࠊdlogCPIt-1
dlogPit ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡀᒓࡍࡿ௻ᴗࡢ⤒ᖖ฼┈ࡢ๓ᖺẚ㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧ࡣࠊ๓ᮇࡢᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ㸦⏕㩭㣗ရࢆ㝖ࡃ⥲ྜ㸧ࡢ๓ᖺẚࠊdUEit ࡣປാ⪅ i16࠶ࡿ≉ᐃࡢປാ⪅࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ␗࡞ࡿ஧ேࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠࠿ࡽ๓ᖺẚࢆ⟬ฟࡍࡿ⌮⏤ࡣࠊᐃᮇ᪼⤥ࡢຠᯝࢆ㝖ࡃࡇ࡜࡟࠶ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊ࠶ࡿ≉ᐃࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡࡟ࡣࠊᖺ㱋ࡀୖࡀࡿࡇ࡜࡛⮬ືⓗ࡟㈤㔠ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿᐃᮇ᪼⤥ࡀ཯ᫎࡉࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢຠᯝࢆ㝖ࡃࡓࡵ࡟ࡣࠊ
௒ᖺ࡜๓ᖺ࡛ྠࡌᖺ㱋ࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ୧⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ᕪ࡟ࡣࠊ⬟ຊࡢᕪ࡞࡝ࡀ཯ᫎࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊࡇࢀࡣࣉࣛࢫ࡟ࡶ࣐࢖ࢼࢫ࡟ࡶ࡞ࡾᚓࡿࡶࡢ࡛
࠶ࡾࠊ᥎ᐃୖࡣㄗᕪ࡜ࡋ࡚ㄆ㆑ࡉࢀࡿࡶࡢ࡜ࡋ࡚ᢅ࠺ࠋ

17ࡇࡇ࡛౑⏝ࡍࡿ㈤㔠࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊつᶍู࣭⏘ᴗูࡢ 4 ࢝ࢸࢦ࣮ࣜ࡟ศ㢮ࡉࢀࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡸປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣ௻ᴗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚␗࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ
ࡇ࡜ࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࡿ࡜ࠊࡉࡽ࡟⣽࠿࠸つᶍู࣭⏘ᴗศ㢮ูࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ௻ᴗู࡟᥎ᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ
ᮃࡲࡋ࠸ࡀࠊᶆᮏࢧ࢖ࢬࡢ☜ಖࡢほⅬ࠿ࡽࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᢅ࠸࡟࡜࡝ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

18㈤㔠࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡀẖᮇኚ໬ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟ᖺࡈ࡜࡟᥎ᐃࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀᮃࡲࡋ࠸ࡀࠊ
ᶆᮏᩘࡢไ⣙࠿ࡽࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᢅ࠸࡟࡜࡝ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

19᥎ᐃࡣ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢࡳࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
11ࡀᒓࡍࡿᛶู࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูኻᴗ⋡ࡢ๓ᖺᕪࢆ♧ࡍࠋWageGapi,t-1 ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡀᒓࡍࡿ௻ᴗࡢ๓ᮇ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࢆ♧ࡍࠋୖ㏙ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫࡟࠾࠸୍࡚ᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ୧⪅ࡢ஋㞳࡟஌ࡌࡿປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡣ๓ᮇࡢ್ࢆ౑⏝ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢኚᩘࡣࠊ๓ᮇ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁ࠸࡯࡝ࠊ௒ᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࢆୗᢲࡋࡍࡿຠᯝࡀ࠶ࡿ࠿ࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿ➢ྕ᮲௳ࡣ㈇࡜࡞ࡿ20ࠋࡇࡢ࡯࠿ࠊᒓᛶࡢ㐪࠸ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊᛶูࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_female㸧ࠊᏛṔࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_education㸧ࠊᖺࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_year㸧ࢆຍ࠼ࡓࠋİit ࡣㄗᕪ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋグ㏙⤫ィ㔞ࡣᅗ⾲ 10㸦ୗẁ㸧࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
᥎ᐃ᪉ἲࡣࠊ᭱ᑠ஧஌ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ21ࠋ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫ࡣ 1999 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺ࡜ࡋࡓࠋ
㸦㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝᅗ⾲ 13 ࡛᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡎࠊ඲つᶍ࣮࣋ࢫ࡛ࡳࡿ࡜ࠊ⤒ᖖ฼┈ࡢఙࡧ⋡ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢ✀㢮࡟ࡼࡽࡎṇ࡛᭷ព࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࡯࠿ࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࡸᐃᮇ⤥୚ࡼࡾࡶ≉ู⤥୚࡛ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ್ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊ௻ᴗᴗ⦼
ࡢᨵၿࡣ㈤㔠ࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡿຠᯝࢆᣢࡘࡀࠊࡑࡢᙳ㡪ࡣࡼࡾ≉ู⤥୚࡟཯ᫎࡉࢀ
ࡸࡍ࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ࡢఙࡧ⋡ࡶ㈤㔠ࡢ✀㢮࡟ࡼࡽࡎṇ࡛᭷ព࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊ⤒ᖖ฼┈ࡢఙࡧ࡜ྠᵝࠊ≉ู⤥୚࡛ࡑࡢឤᛂᗘࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋኻᴗ⋡࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ≉ู⤥୚࡛ࡣ᭷ព࡜࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡶࡢࡢࠊᡤᐃ
ෆ⤥୚ࡸᐃᮇ⤥୚࡛ࡣ㈇࡛᭷ព࡞㛵ಀࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊປാ㟂⤥ࡢࡦࡗ㏕ࡀ㈤㔠ࢆୖᢲࡋࡍࡿഴྥࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ
㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ≉ู⤥୚࡛᭷ព࡞㛵ಀࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠸ࡶ
ࡢࡢࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࡸᐃᮇ⤥୚࡛ࡣࠊ᭷ព࡟㈇ࡢ㛵ಀࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᡤᐃෆ
⤥୚࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊ௻ᴗつᶍู࡟᥎ᐃࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡣࠊ኱௻ᴗ࣭
୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ࡜ࡶ࡟᭷ព࡟㈇ࡢ㛵ಀࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ࡢᑐẚ࡛㈤㔠ࡀ㐣኱࡜࡞ࡿ࡜ࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࢆ୰ᚰ࡟㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࡀୗᢲࡋࡉࢀࡿഴྥࡀ࠺࠿ࡀࢃࢀࡿࠋ
ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽࡣࠊ≉ู⤥୚ࡣࠊࡑࡢ᫬ࠎࡢ௻ᴗᴗ⦼ࢆࡼࡾᩄឤ࡟཯ᫎࡋ
ࡸࡍ࠸୍᪉ࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࡣࠊ௻ᴗᴗ⦼ࡸ≀౯ኚືࡢ࡯࠿ࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆࡼࡾཷࡅࡸࡍ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ♧၀ࡉࢀࡿࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅࠊ㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳ࡀ኱ࡁ࠸኱௻ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡋࡓࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍ
ࡀࠊ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢᡤᐃෆ⤥୚ࡢᢚไ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ
20ࢽ࣮ࣗࢣ࢖ࣥࢪ࢔ࣥࣔࢹࣝ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ㈤㔠࡟⢓╔ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿሙྜࠊ๓ᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࢠࣕࢵࣉ
㸦㈤㔠࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳㸧ࡣ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ⋡࡟㈇ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡇ࡜ࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ྂ㈡࣭すᓮ㸦2006㸧ࢆཧ↷㸧ࠋ

21

F ᳨ᐃࠊHausman ᳨ᐃࠊBreusch and Pagan ᳨ᐃࡢ⤖ᯝࢆཷࡅ࡚ࠊࣉ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ᥎ᐃࢆ㑅ᢥࡋࡓࠋ12㸲㸬ࡲ࡜ࡵ
ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィࡋࠊࡑࡢ஋㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡋࡓࠋᮏ✏࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ㄽࡣࠊ௨ୗࡢ࡜
࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ➨୍࡟ࠊ኱௻ᴗࢆ୰ᚰ࡟㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼ
ࡾࡶ኱ࡁࡃࠊ㧗㱋⪅࡯࡝ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚㈤㔠ࡀ๭㧗࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿࠋ
ࡇࡢ⌮ㄽⓗ࡞ゎ㔘࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀጇᙜࡋᚓࡿࠋ➨஧࡟ࠊࡇࡢ㈤㔠࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢࡶ࡜࡛ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ๭ྜࡀ㧗࠸኱௻ᴗ࡞࡝ࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀ
ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚┦ᑐⓗ࡟኱ࡁ࠸௻ᴗ࡯࡝ࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥ࡟
࠶ࡿࠋ㏆ᖺࡢࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ࡀఙࡧᝎࢇࡔ⫼ᬒ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᵝࠎ࡞せᅉࡀᣦ᦬ࡉࢀ࡚࠸
ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୰࡛ࡶࠊᮏ✏ࡢ⤖ᯝࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀࠊ኱௻ᴗࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ࡍࡿ௻ᴗ
ࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜ẚ࡭࡚㐣኱࡞ࡶࡢ࡜ࡋࠊࡇࢀࡀ 1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
2000 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡣࠊᅋሢୡ௦ࡢᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࡀቑຍࡋࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽࠊ㧗㱋໬࡟ࡼ
ࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍࡣࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇⴠࡕ╔࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡶࡗ࡜ࡶࠊඛ⾜ࡁࡣࠊປാ
ேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢࢪࣗࢽ࢔ୡ௦ࡀ㧗㱋໬ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊ௻ᴗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀ෌ࡧே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆᢲࡋୖࡆࡿᒁ㠃࡟ධࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࡿ
࡜ࠊ௻ᴗࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࡿྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࡸ࣮࢝ࣈࡢタᐃࡶྵࡵࡓ㈤㔠య⣔ࡢ
ぢ┤ࡋࢆ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡃ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢ⥅⥆ⓗ࡞㞠⏝࡞࡝ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊປാ
⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆ㐺ษ࡟ࣂࣛࣥࢫࡉࡏ࡚࠸ࡃࡇ࡜ࡶ㔜せ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ

࠙ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ࠚ

㉥⩚ு࣭୰ᮧ஧ᮁ㸦2008㸧ࠕ௻ᴗูࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡼࡿ㈤㔠࣭໅⥆ࣉࣟࣇ࢓࢖ࣝࡢᐇドศᯒࠖ
ࠊࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘
ࠊNo.580ࠊpp.44-60.
Ⲉᮌ⚽⾜࣭஭ୖ⿱௓࣭᭷㤿ᇶஅ࣭୰㔝㈗ẚ࿅㸦2007㸧
ࠕ௻ᴗࡢ㈤㔠Ỵᐃ⾜ືࡢኚ໬࡜ࡑࡢ⫼ᬒࠖ
ࠊࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘
ࠊNo.560ࠊpp.31-40.
⊦ᮌṊᚨ㸦2001㸧ࠕ௻ᴗつᶍ࡜ࠕṔྐࠖ࠿ࡽࡳࡓேᮦ⫱ᡂࠖࠊ⊦ᮌṊᚨ࣭㐃ྜ⥲ྜ⏕ά㛤Ⓨ◊✲ᡤ⦅ⴭࠗࠕ㌿⫋ࠖࡢ⤒῭Ꮫ 㐺⫋㑅ᢥ࡜ேᮦ⫱ᡂ࠘ࠊ➨ 7 ❶ࠊᮾὒ⤒῭᪂ሗ♫.
ᕝཱྀ኱ྖ࣭⚄ᯘ㱟࣭㔠ᴿឩ࣭ᶒ㉪᪫࣭ΎỈ㇂ㅍ࣭῝ᑿிྖ࣭∾㔝㐩἞࣭ᶓᒣἨ
㸦2007㸧ࠕᖺຌ㈤㔠ࡣ⏕⏘ᛶ࡜஋㞳ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࠿̿ᕤᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝ࣭㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡼࡿᐇドศᯒ̿ࠖࠊࠗ⤒῭◊✲࠘ࠊVol.58ࠊNo.1ࠊ
pp.61-90.
13ᕝᮏ༟ྖ࣭⠛ᓮබ᫛㸦2009㸧
ࠕ㈤㔠ࡣ࡞ࡐୖࡀࡽ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡢ࠿㸽̿2002㹼07 ᖺࡢᬒẼᣑ኱ᮇ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ኱௻ᴗே௳㈝ࡢᢚไせᅉ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ୍⪃ᐹ̿ࠖࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬࠊ No.09-J-5.
㯮⏣⚈Ꮚ࣭ᒣᮏ໏㸦2006㸧
ࠗࢹࣇࣞୗࡢ㈤㔠ኚື ྡ┠㈤㔠ࡢୗ᪉◳┤ᛶ࡜㔠⼥ᨻ⟇࠘ࠊ➨ 8 ❶ࠊᮾி኱Ꮫฟ∧఍.
බ┈㈈ᅋἲே᪥ᮏ⏕⏘ᛶᮏ㒊㸦2013㸧ࠕ➨ 13 ᅇ ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝࣭ே஦ࡢኚᐜ࡟㛵ࡍࡿㄪᰝࠖ.
ྂ㈡㯞⾰Ꮚ࣭すᓮ೺ྖ㸦2006㸧
ࠕ≀౯࣭㈤㔠ࣇ࢕ࣜࢵࣉࢫ᭤⥺ࡢ᥎ィ㸸⢓╔౯᱁࣭㈤㔠ࣔࢹࣝࠖ
ࠊࠗ㔠⼥◊✲࠘
ࠊ➨ 25 ᕳࠊ➨ 3 ྕࠊpp.73-106.
୰㤿ᏹஅ㸦1987㸧ࠕ͆᪥ᮏⓗ͇㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ⤒῭ྜ⌮ᛶㄽ෌᳨ウ̿1920 ᖺ௦ࡢ᪥⡿ẚ㍑ࡢどⅬ࠿ࡽ̿ࠖࠊࠗ⤒῭◊✲࠘
ࠊVol.38ࠊNo.4ࠊ pp.307-320.
㭯ගኴ㑻㸦2005㸧ࠕ᪥ᮏࡣ࢔࣓ࣜ࢝ᆺ㈨ᮏ୺⩏࡟㏆࡙࠸࡚ࡁࡓ࠿㸽ࠖࠊࠗESP࠘ࠊNo.480ࠊpp.54-57ࠊ⤒῭௻⏬༠఍.
᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧ࠕṇ♫ဨࡢ௻ᴗ㛫⛣ື࡜㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ஦ᐇ࡜
⪃ᐹ̿᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜ࡣᔂࢀࡓ࠿㸽̿ࠖࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝㄽᩥ.
㔝⏣▱ᙪ࣭㜿㒊ṇᾈ㸦2010㸧ࠕປാศ㓄⋡, ㈤㔠పୗࠖࠊෆ㛶ᗓ⤒῭♫఍⥲ྜ◊✲ᡤ௻⏬࣭┘ಟࠊᵽཱྀ⨾㞝⦅ࠗࣂࣈࣝ/ࢹࣇࣞᮇࡢ᪥ᮏ⤒῭࡜⤒῭ᨻ⟇࠘ࠊ➨
6 ᕳࠊࠗປാᕷሙ࡜ᡤᚓศ㓄࠘ࠊ៞᠕⩏ሿ኱Ꮫฟ∧఍.
℈⛅⣧ဢ࣭ᇼ㞞༤࣭๓⏣బᜨᏊ࣭ᮧ⏣ၨᏊ㸦2011㸧ࠕపᡂ㛗࡜᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜̿ᖺຌ㈤㔠࡜⤊㌟㞠⏝ࡢ⿵᏶ᛶࢆᕠࡗ࡚ࠖࠊࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘ࠊNo.611ࠊ
pp.26-37.
῝ᑿிྖ࣭ᶒ㉪᪫㸦2011㸧ࠕ᪥ᮏ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ※Ἠࡣ࡝ࡇ࡟࠶ࡿࡢ࠿㸸࣑ࢡࣟࢹ࣮
ࢱ࡟ࡼࡿᐇドศᯒࠖࠊRIETI Discussion Paper Seriesࠊ11-J-045.
୕㇂┤⣖㸦1997㸧
ࠗ௻ᴗෆ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀࡜ປാᕷሙ࠘
ࠊ➨ 1 ❶ࠊວⲡ᭩ᡣ.
̿̿㸦2005㸧ࠕ90 ᖺ௦ࡢ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ࡢኚ໬࡜ேཱྀせᅉࠖࠊࠗᅜẸ⤒῭㞧ㄅ࠘ࠊ➨ 191ᕳࠊ➨ 2 ྕࠊpp.13-27.
ᒣ⏣ு࣭ᡞ⏣῟ோ࣭ᮧୖ㈗᫛㸦2009㸧
ࠕ࡞ࡐ㈤㔠ࡣᢚไࡉࢀࡓࡢ࠿㹼๓ᅇᬒẼᅇ᚟ᮇ࡜ࣂࣈࣝᮇࡢẚ㍑ࢆ୰ᚰ࡟㹼ࠖ
ࠊNew ESRI Working Paper SeriesࠊNo.12.
ຬୖ࿴ྐ࣭᳃ᮏᩔᚿ㸦2006㸧
ࠕ௻ᴗࡢࠕṔྐࠖࡣ㈤㔠ࡢỴᐃせᅉ࠿㸽㸸௻ᴗ㸫ປാ ⪅ ࣐ ࢵ ࢳ ࣥ ࢢ ࢹ ࣮ ࢱ ࡟ ࡼ ࡿ ᳨ ド ࠖࠊ ⚄ ᡞ ኱ Ꮫ ኱ Ꮫ 㝔 ⤒ ῭ Ꮫ ◊ ✲ ⛉Discussion PaperࠊNo.1122.
Bassanini, A. and T. Manfredi (2012) “Capital’s Grabbing Hand? A
Cross-Country/Cross-Industry Analysis of the Decline of the Labour Share,”
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No.133, OECD
Publishing.
14

Becker, G. S. (1964) “Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with
Special Reference to Education,” Columbia University Press for the National
Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
Cappelli, P. (2001) ࠗ㞠⏝ࡢᮍ᮶࠘ࠊⱝᒣ⏤⨾㸦ヂ㸧ࠊ➨ 4 ❶ࠊ᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺♫.
Clark, R. L. and N. Ogawa (1992) “The Effect of Mandatory Retirement on Earnings
Profiles in Japan,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol.45, No.2,
pp.258-266.
Crépon, B., N. Deniau and S. Pérez-Duarte (2002) “Wages, Productivity, and Worker
Characteristics: A French Perspective,” Mimeo, CREST-INSEE.
Dostie, B. (2011) “Wages, Productivity and Aging,” De Economist, Vol.159, No.2,
pp.139-158.
Hellerstein, J. K. and D. Neumark (1995) “Are Earnings Profiles Steeper than
Productivity Profiles? Evidence from Israeli Firm-Level Data,” The Journal of
Human Resources, Vol.30, No.1, pp.89-112.
Hellerstein, J. K., D. Neumark and K. R. Troske (1999) “Wages, Productivity, andWorker Characteristics: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions andWage Equations,” Journal of Labor Economics, Vol.17, No.3, pp.409-446.
Hellerstein, J. K. and D. Neumark (2004) “Production Function and Wage Equation
Estimation with Heterogeneous Labor: Evidence from a New Matched
Employer-Employee Data Set,” NBER Working Paper, No.10325.
Ilmakunnas, P. and M. Maliranta (2005) “Technology, Labour Characteristics and Wage
-productivity Gaps,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.5,
pp.623-645.
Kodama, N. and K. Odaki (2012) “A New Approach to Measuring the Gap between
Marginal Productivity and Wages of Workers,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series,
12-E-028.
Lazear, E. P. (1979) “Why Is There Mandatory Retirement?” Journal of Political
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Okazaki, K. (1993) “Why Is the Earnings Profile Upward-Sloping? The Sharing Modelvs the Shirking Model,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
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Van Ours, J. C. and L. Stoeldraijer (2010) “Age, Wage and Productivity,” CEPR
Discussion Paper, No.7713.

15㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ
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㠀〇㐀ᴗ

඲つᶍ

(0.007)Į3〇㐀ᴗ

(0.007)***0.370

0.261 ***

(0.079)***-0.532(0.023)***-0.494-0.362 ***(0.055)(1.364)(0.042)(0.105)(0.031)ᖺࢲ࣑࣮タ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮
኱⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮௻ᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Adj-R2

0.955

0.988

0.975

0.972

0.955

N

22,847

1,028

11,744

1,149

8,926

㸦㸰㸧㈤㔠㛵ᩘ
඲⏘ᴗ

Ȗ0
Ȗ1
Ȗ2

኱௻ᴗ

୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ

኱௻ᴗ୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ

5.907 ***

7.219 ***

4.802 ***

7.094 ***

5.180 ***

(0.017)(0.152)(0.027)(0.130)(0.029)-17 376 ***-17.376-25 383 ***-25.383-9 539 ***-9.539-31 400 ***-31.400-9 184 ***-9.184(0.750)(5.559)(0.405)(5.889)(0.435)

0.183

***

0.574

-0.7240.144***(0.029)***(0 038)(0.038)
Ȗ4

㠀〇㐀ᴗ

඲つᶍ

(0.009)
Ȗ3

〇㐀ᴗ

0.939

(0.006)***(0.261)(0 261)***-1.092

0.013

**

0.338

(0.050)***(0.022)(0 022)***-0.452

0.347

***

1.168

(0.011)***(0.292)(0 292)***-1.4630.213 ***
0.144 ***
(0.023)(0 023)***-0.191 ***(0.048)(0.304)(0.029)(0.367)(0.029)ᖺࢲ࣑࣮タ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮
኱⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮௻ᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Yes
Yes
No
No

Adj-R2

0.475

0.086

0.100

0.050

0.104

N

22,847

1,028

11,744

1,149

8,926

ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧
ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊ ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊ ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍࠋࠉࠉࠉࠉ㸦㸧ෆࡣࠊᶆ‽೫ᕪࠋ㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸰㸧㈤㔠࣭⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢ஋㞳㸦㸯㸧〇㐀ᴗ࣭኱௻ᴗ









㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ D⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ E











               ṓ 

஋㞳 DE        ṓ        
㸦㸰㸧〇㐀ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ














        ṓ                ṓ        㸦㸱㸧㠀〇㐀ᴗ࣭኱௻ᴗ








 







 


        ṓ                ṓ        㸦㸲㸧㠀〇㐀ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ




















        ṓ                ṓ        ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࡜⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ㹼ṓࡢ㈤㔠ࢆ࡜ᇶ‽໬ࡋࠊ⏕ᾭࡢ௜ຍ౯್⥲㢠࡜ࠉࠉࠉࠉ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ➼ࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࡼ࠺Ỉ‽ࢆㄪᩚࡋ࡚⾲♧ࠋ㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ

௻ᴗつᶍ

඲つᶍ

኱௻ᴗ

୰ሀ୰ᑠ௻ᴗ

඲つᶍ

඲つᶍ

᫬㛫䛒䛯䜚
ᡤᐃෆ⤥୚
䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅

᫬㛫䛒䛯䜚ᡤᐃෆ⤥୚䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅

᫬㛫䛒䛯䜚ᡤᐃෆ⤥୚䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅

᫬㛫䛒䛯䜚ᐃᮇ⤥୚䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅

≉ู⤥୚

⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ

䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅

0.007

0.025

-0.001

0.007-0.139 ***(0.013)(0.040)(0.014)(0.013)(0.026)0.004 **

0.015 ***

0.002

0.004 **

0.028 ***

(0.002)(0.005)(0.002)(0.002)(0.004)-0.004 ***-0.003 *-0.006 *-0.003 ***0.004(0.001)(0.002)(0.003)(0.001)(0.003)0.011 **

0.000

0.015 **

0.010 *

0.051 ***

(0.005)(0.013)(0.006)(0.005)(0.011)-0.009 *-0.011-0.007 *-0.008 **-0.008(0.004)(0.009)(0.004)(0.004)(0.008)0.007 *

0.000

0.008 *

0.005

-0.008(0.004)(0.009)(0.004)(0.004)(0.008)

ᏛṔࢲ࣑࣮

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

ᖺࢲ࣑࣮

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

0.005

0.009

0.005

0.004

0.030

22,136

7,092

15,044

22,137

20,731ᐃᩘ㡯⤒ᖖ฼┈࣭ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㈤㔠࣭⏕⏘ᛶࡢ஋㞳㸦ᮇ๓㸧

&3,㝖ࡃ⏕㩭࣭๓ᖺẚ㸦ᮇ๓㸧ኻᴗ⋡㸦๓ᖺᕪ㸧

ᛶูࢲ࣑࣮

Adj-R
N

2

㸦ὀ㸧
ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊ᭷ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊ᭷ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍࠋ᭷᭷ࠉࠉ㸦㸧ෆࡣࠊᶆ‽೫ᕪࠋ