National Seismic Hazard Maps
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Mapsfor Japan
To modelling EQs without speciﬁed source faults, the upper limit of magnitude Mu = M7.3 for onshore, and Mu = M7.5 for oﬀshore are setup.

81 Chuo-kozosen falut zone
(Kongo-sanchi-toen)(Izumi-sanmyaku-nanen)

128 Oita-heiya-Yufuin fault zone,Eastern segment
and Western segment

Nearly 0〜4%

(Eastern segment)

46 Sakaitoge-Kamiya fault zone
(Main part)

Around M 7.2

0.03〜4%

Around M 6.7

2〜4%(Western segment)

0.02〜13%

k Yamagata-ken-Oki EQ
Nearly 0%
Approx. M 7.7（By Poisson process: About 3%）l Niigata-ken-hokubu-Oki EQ

Unzen fault group

Takayama and Oppara fault zone

Nearly 0%
Approx. M 7.5（By Poisson process: About 3%）

129 Northern segment

Kokufu fault zoneof the Southwestern part
Nearly 0〜4%

Around M 7.3

0〜5%

Around M 7.2
Atera fault zone

Akita-ken-Oki EQ

131 Hinagu fault zone

52 Atera fault zone

(Northern segment of the main part)(Yatsushirokai segment)(Yatsushirokai segment)

Tonami-heiya and Kurehayama(Kinugasa/Kitatake fault zone)chn（Other EQs except characteristic EQs）
M 7.1～7.6
Around 90%

8

EQs without speciﬁed source faults
Interplate M 7: About 80%Mu 7.9
Intraplate M 7: About 8%
M 8: About 0.7% Mu 8.2* Mt: Tsunami magnitude scale

EQs in Central Sanriku-Oki

dEQs without speciﬁed source faults

9Interplate M 7: About 30% M 8: About 3% Mu 8.2
Intraplate M 7: About 2%
M 8: About 0.1% Mu 8.2

10j3〜6%

10

Miyagi-ken-Oki Earthquake andEQs close to the offshore trenches
in Southern Sanriku-Oki

11101

1416151314154% or less
1917c17182018l
2〜3%

2225

2126

Mw* 8.4 〜 9.0* Mw: Moment magnitude scale

EQs near by the oﬀshore trenches
in the Sanriku-Oki to Boso-Oki regions(Tsunami EQs)

Interplate M 7: About 80% M 8: About 7% Mu 8.0
Intraplate M 7: About 20% M 8: About 0.7% Mu 8.0

24* Mt: Tsunami magnitude scale

103

EQs near by the oﬀshore trenches
in the Sanriku-Oki to Boso-Oki regions(normal faults type)

103
39

141

39

102

102

103

Nansei Islands

146
105

56

56

Intermediate-depth EQs
from Kyushu to Nansei islands

110Intraplate M 7: About 60%

48

58

EQs without speciﬁed source faults
M 8: About 2%

63

61

74
73

73

78

82

79

73

106

122
124

122

125

128

127

129

129

79

129 130

129

107

136

159

b

EQs in Ibaraki-ken-Oki

M 6.9～7.6

160
68

69

67

53

161

97

72

97

71
71

75

[ Major active fault zone ]

a

128

128

i

131
132

N

naak

T

rou

57

Morimoto/Togashi fault zone

121

Fukuchiyama fault zone2

Tokachi-heiya fault zone

58

Fukui-heiya-toen fault zone

122

Nishiyama fault zone

3

Furano fault zone

59

Nagaragawa-joryu fault zone

123

Umi fault

4

Mashike-sanchi-toen fault zone60

Nobi fault zone

124

Kego fault zone

5

Tobetsu fault

61

Sekigahara fault zone

125

Hinata-Okasagi-toge fault zone

6

Ishikari-teichi-toen fault zone

63

Nosaka/Shufukuji fault zone

126

Minou fault zone

7

Kuromatsunai-teichi fault zone

64

Kohoku-sanchi fault zone

127

Saga-heiya-hokuen fault zone

8

Hakodate-heiya-seien fault zone

65

Biwako-seigan fault zone

128

Beppu-Haneyama fault zone

9

Aomori-wan-seigan fault zone

67

Yoro-Kuwana-Yokkaichi fault zone

129

Unzen fault group10

Tsugaru-sanchi-seien fault zone

68

Suzuka-toen fault zone

130

Futagawa fault zone

11

Oritsume fault

69

Suzuka-seien fault zone

131

Hinagu fault zone

12

Noshiro fault zone

70

Tongu fault

132

Midorikawa fault zone

13

Kitakami-teichi-seien fault zone

71

Nunobiki-sanchi-toen fault zone

133

Hitoyoshi-bonchi-nan'en fault

14Shizukuishi-bonchi-seien/
Mahiru-sanchi-toen fault zone

72

Kizugawa fault zone

134

Izumi fault zone

15

Yokote-bonchi-toen fault zone

73

Mikata/Hanaore fault zone

135

Koshiki fault zone

16

Kitayuri fault

74

Yamada fault zone

136

Ichiki fault zone

17

Shinjo-bonchi fault zone

75

Nara-bonchi-toen fault zone

141

Sekiya fault

18

Yamagata-bonchi fault zone

76

Arima-Takatsuki fault zone

142

Uchinokomori fault

19

Shonai-heiya-toen fault zone

77

Ikoma fault zone

143

Katashinagawa-sagan fault

20

Nagamachi-Rifu-sen fault zone

78

Mitoke/Kyoto-Nishiyama fault zone

144

Okubo fault

21

Fukushima-bonchi-seien fault zone

79

Rokko/Awajishima fault zone145

Ota fault

22

Nagai-bonchi-seien fault zone

80

Uemachi fault zone

Futaba fault

81

Nagano-bonchi-seien fault zone
(Shinanogawa fault zone)

23

Chuo-kozosen fault zone

146

Fukaya fault zone

Aizu-bonchi-seien/-toen fault zone

Yamasaki fault zone

147

24

82

Ayasegawa fault

Kushigata-sanmyaku fault zone

Nagao fault zone

148

25

84

Ogose fault

Tsukioka fault zone

Itsukaichi fault zone

149

2687

Tachikawa fault zone

Nagaoka-heiya-seien fault zone

Iwakuni fault zone

150

2788

Kamogawa-teichi fault zone

Tokamachi fault zone

Kikukawa fault zone

151

39

90

Miura-hanto fault groupKiso-sanmyaku-seien fault zone

Ise-wan fault zone

152

45

97

Isehara fault

Sakaitoge/Kamiya fault zone

Osaka-wan fault zone

153

46

98

Shiozawa fault zone

47

Atotsugawa fault zone

Sarobetsu fault zone

154

Earthquake plane of major active fault zone

99

Takayama/Oppara fault zone

Hanawa-higashi fault zone

155

48

101

Other Active Faults

49

Ushikubi fault

102

Takada-heiya fault zone

Hirayama-Matsuda-kitafault zone

156

50

Shokawa fault zone

103

Muikamachi fault zone

Sone-kyuryo fault zone

157

51

Inadani fault zone

105

Uozu fault zone

Minobu fault

158

52

Atera fault zone

106

Ube fault zone
(Suonada fault group)

Kitaizu fault zone

159

Ito-oki fault

53

Byobuyama/Enasan fault zone

107

Akinada fault group160

Inatori fault zone

55

Ochigata fault zone110

Miyako-jima fault zone

161

Iro-zaki fault

56

Tonami-heiya fault zone/
Kurehayama fault zone

120

Kokura-higashi fault zone

162

Itoigawa-Shizuoka-kozosen
fault zone (northern part,central part, southern part)g

M 6.7〜7.4h

M 8 class（M7.9〜M8.6） Nearly 0〜5%
Around M 7（M6.7〜M7.3）
Around 70%

a Nankai Trough EQs
M 8 〜 9 class

Around 40%

Around 70%

Interplate EQs in Hyuganada
Approx. M 7.6

Around 10%

Major Subduction-Zone Earthquakes

26％
Higher *6〜26％
3〜6％

HighInterplate M 7: About 90%
Intraplate M 7: About 70%

M 8: About 20%
M 8: About 4%

0.1〜3％< 0.1％

Mu 8.5Mu 8.0Note＊：
Probability of earthquake occurrence with the JMA intensity
larger than 6 lower within 30 years by the Poisson process:26% ----- Approximately once every 100 years on average
6% ----- Approximately once every 500 years on average
3% ----- Approximately once every 1000 years on average[ Label of major fault zone ]7 Kuromatsunai-teichi fault zone
Around M 7.3 or more

Fault No.

PSHM P(IJMA

2〜5% or lessMagnitude

Earthquake name

No. Earthquake nameShibetsu fault zone

Intraplate EQs
in Akinada-Iyonada-Bungosuido[ Probability ]No. Earthquake name1136

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

Interplate M 7: About 70% M 8: About 10% Mu 8.3
Intraplate M 7: About 10% M 8: About 1% Mu 8.2

EQs without speciﬁed source faults
Interplate M 7: About 40% M 8: About 4% Mu 8.3
Intraplate M 7: About 6%
M 8: About 0.5% Mu 8.2

136

Shallow EQs in Nansei islands

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

EQs in Boso-Okib Sagami Trough EQs

128Around 70%（Repeated interplate EQ）
M 6.7～7.2
Around 90% or moreSagami
Trough

53

97

81

131

135

158

151

No. Earthquake name

133
134

152
152

53

Interplate M 7: About 60% M 8: About 7% Mu 8.2
Intraplate M 7: About 10% M 8: About 0.9% Mu 8.2

152

81

131

135

155

51

106

128

154

157

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

153

81

130

130

51

81128

126

45156

81123
124

162

Around 10%Approx. M 7.4

8488

121

53

150

81878710680

987912053607682

1226165771076345

EQs in Fukushima-ken-Oki

148

162

4552

52
60
60

7078826059

148

65
7882

60

6164 647452
60464852* Mt: Tsunami magnitude scale

147
149

46

48

Mu 8.0
60

145

162

50

61

90

4757

58

146

49

EQs without speciﬁed source faults
Interplate M 7: About 80% M 8: About 7% Mu 8.0
Intraplate M 7: About 20% M 8: About 0.7% Mu 8.0

144

16256

110

Approx. M 8.2 Approx. Mt* 8.3
4〜7%（Around 1-2% in speciﬁed area）

142

143
55

Nearly 0%

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

2427

c Great East Japan EQ (2011 type)

Around 30%
Approx. Mt* 8.6〜9.0（Around 7% in speciﬁed area）

23※ It is assumed that Eq in Kozu-Matsuda fault zone
simultaniously occurs once in several times ofan occurrence of M8 class EQs of Sagami Trough.

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

19

k80 Uemachi fault zone

Miyagi-ken-Oki
Unknown
Approx. M 7.4（Other EQs except characteristic EQs）
Around 60%
M 7.0～7.3
EQs close to the oﬀshore trenches
in Southern Sanriku-Oki
Around M 7.9
Nearly 0%（Other EQs except characteristic EQs）
Around 50%
M 7.2～7.6

Interplate M 7: About 60% M 8: About 8% Mu 8.4
Intraplate M 7: About 4%
M 8: About 0.3% Mu 8.2

Nearly 0〜5%

Around M 7.5

2〜20%

d Approx. M 8.0 Approx. Mt* 8.2

75 Nara-bonchi toen fault zone
Around M 7.4

rei

Nearly 0〜3%

Around M 6.8 or moreT
EQs in Northern Sanriku-Oki

1〜3%

Around M 7.1e-17154 Shiozawa fault zone

Biwako-seigan fault zone
65 (Northern part)

2614

Around M 6.7 or more

2〜8%

e-3

6〜11%

Around M 6.6 or more

57 Morimoto-Togashi fault zone
Around M 7.2

612(Takeyama fault zone)

Nearly 0〜5%

Around M 7.2

32152 (Main part)0.04〜6%(Kurehayama fault zone)

5

Miura-hanto fault group(Tonami-heiya/Kurehayama fault zone (Eastern part))

Around M 7.0

Around M 7.8

Nearly 0〜6%

Around M 7.5

56 fault zone

Around 3% or less

Sadogashima-hoppo-Oki EQ

Nearly 0〜16%

Around M 7.3

6〜11%

Around M 6.9

Around M 7.53l

Nearly 0%
Approx. M 7.7（By Poisson process: About 3%）

Beppu-Haneyama fault zone

Kiso-sanmyaku-seien fault zone
(Southern segment of the main part)

Around M 7.6

j Aomori-ken-seiho-Oki EQ

0.3〜6%

4ri

Around M 7.2

Kiso-sanmyaku-seien fault zone

Around M 6.3

Nearly 0%
Approx. M 7.8（By Poisson process: About 3%）e-24

u3% or morehi Hokkaido-nansei-Oki EQ

Kego fault zone

Around M 7.4

1

Nearly 0%
Approx. M 7.5（By Poisson process: About 1%）

0.1〜10%124 (Southeastern segment)fh Hokkaido-seiho-Oki EQ

2〜4%Around M 7.0

39 Tokamachi fault zone
(Western part)48

Nearly 0〜8%

107 Akinada fault group (Main part)※99

Around M 7.8
0.006〜0.1%（By Poisson process: About 0.8%）

Takada-heiya-toen fault zone

Around M 7.6

Kozu-Matsuda fault zone

45

Hokkaido-hokusei-Oki EQ

106 Suonada fault group (Main part)

0.3〜5%

Around M 6.8

4% or less

Around M 7.2

25 Kushigata-sanmyaku fault zone

gK

Nearly 0〜6%

Interplate M 7: Nearly 100% M 8: About 20% Mu 8.0
Intraplate M 7: About 90% M 8: About 10% Mu 8.2

0.8〜8%

Around M 7.4

Takada-heiya fault zone

102

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

Japan

Shonai-heiya-toen fault zone
19 (Southern part)

60〜70%

hcn
Tre

0.003〜8%

Around M 6.9(Central Southern segment)

Around M 7.6

Around 60%

13〜30%

Around M 7.6

99 Sarobetsu fault zone

Yamagata-bonchi fault zone

Around M 7.3(Central Northern segment)f Shikotanto-Oki
Approx. M 7.8
g Etorofuto-Oki
Approx. M 8.1

Interplate M 7: About 90% M 8: About 7% Mu 8.0
Intraplate M 7: About 50% M 8: About 5% Mu 8.2

0.008〜16%

Around M 7.7

0.07〜14%Around M 7.6〜7.7

5% or less

Around M 7.1

18 (Northern segment)

Nearly 0〜5%

Around M 6.9

Shinjo-bonchi fault zone

17 (Eastern part)(Northern segment)

e-1 Tokachi-Oki
2〜6%
Approx. M 8.1
e-2 Nemuro-Oki
Around M 7.9
Around 50%
e-3 The case of correlated occurrence
Around M 8.3

Ea

2〜5% or less

Shikotanto-Oki EQ and Etorofuto-Oki EQ

EQs without speciﬁed source faultsaeSnapaJeht
fonigramnrest

7 Kuromatsunai-teichi fault zone
Around M 7.3 or more

Itoigawa-Shizuoka-kozosen
162 fault zone

Tokachi-Oki EQ and Nemuro-Oki EQ

Occurrence Regionof the Subduction-Zone Earthquakes[ Label of subduction-zone earthquake ]EQs in Fukushima-ken-Oki
Approx. M 7.4

Around 10%

EQs without speciﬁed source faults

Mu 8.2
Interplate M 7: About 60% M 8: About 7%
Intraplate M 7: About 10% M 8: About 0.9% Mu 8.2

Earthquake occurrence
probability within
Magnitude Occurrence Probability
the next 30 years(Starting date：2016/01/01)
of M 7 and M 8Earthquake nameEarthquake occurrence
probability within
the next 30 years

OgasawaraIslands(Starting date：2016/01/01)

Upper limit forthe magunitude ofearthquakes without
speciﬁed source faults

6-) within 30 years starting 2016/01/01 and Long-term evaluation for major earthquakes( Published by Earthquake Research Committee, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on 2016/06/10 )URL : http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/?lang=en