Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Supporting climate adaptation policy
implementation: Updated TechnicalGuideline
IPCC Symposium GEF, 12 September 2024
Prof. Bart van den Hurk
Co-chair IPCC WG2

Process timeline of AR7

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Special Report (SR) on
Climate Change and Cities
2027
Seventh Assessment
Report (AR7)~2028

Synthesis Report(SYR)~2029

Update of theAdaptation
Guidelines(current version
is from 1994)

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

The 1994 Impacts and Adaptation Guideline
Define problem
Select method
Test method/sensitivity

 What’s the climate pressure?
 What does it do to the nation/region?
 How will that change?
 What adaptation is required?

Select scenarios
Update in AR7
Access biophysical impacts,
assess socio-economic impacts

 New climate insights
 New data and scenarios

Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategies New adaptation insights
 New experience from case studies

What do we know now that we did not in 1994?
Major conclusions from AR6• Climate models andscenarios haveadvanced• Incremental adaptation
is prevalent, whereastransformativeadaptation isinfrequentWorking Group II
Technical Support Unit

• Existing responses arenot enough• Globally applicable
adaptation indicators
are lacking• M&E are essential for
tracking adaptation
progress and learning• Adaptation successes
can have some degreeof maladaptation• Residual impacts,
risks and Loss &Damage has become
increasingly relevantProgress of Climate Models

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit Higher resolution
 Higher complexity
 Higher accuracy Improved
representation of
key variables Larger number ofmodels andscenarios

Approaching Adaptation atDifferent Scales of Transformation

Working Group II
Technical Support UnitIncremental adaptation
Adaptation that maintains
the essence and integrityof a system or process ata given scale.

Transformational adaptation
Adaptation that changes the fundamental
attributes of a social-ecological system inanticipation of climate change and its
impacts.

> Object planning> City – system planning
Improved
infrastructure

Alternative lifestyles
and employment

Changes to farming
Flood protection

New city planning

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Learning from Adaptation throughMonitoring and Evaluation
WHAT TO MONITOR

Adaptation
Goals

TargetRisk andVulnerability
Assessment

Adaptation
Decisions:Actions &Intervention

Inputs

InputsCONTINUOUS UPGRADE
Purpose ofMonitoringandEvaluation(M&E)
Information
needs

Communication

Monitoring&Evaluation
Operationalisation

Impacts

Outcomes

M&E
approach

Outputs
Datasources

Policy cycles are not essentially linear

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Outline of AR6 WGII Chapter 17

UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience
Targets

Builds on theConvention andParis Agreement
principles

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

sectors/themes

Implementation
depends on

Utilizes

Source ofinformation

Guides theachievementsof the GGA

Review its progressenhancing actionand support
Figure based on Rubial, et al., 2024

The 1994 Impacts and Adaptation Guidelines
Define problem
Select method

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Present Day Challenges
Scenarios and Methods

Test method/sensitivity
Impact Assessment
Select scenarios
Access biophysical impacts,
assess socio-economic impacts

Evaluate Adaption Strategies
Implementation of Adaptation Strategies

Assess autonomous adjustments
Monitoring and Evaluation
Evaluate adaptation strategies

Working Group II
Technical Support Unit

Follow our journey online!

@prof.bartvdhurk@prof.winstonchow

Bart van den Hurk

Winston Chow