DIPLOMACY
Vol.44, Jul./Aug. 2017

Contents of Features

73

China: The expansion of One Belt, One Road and its blind spot

78

Thai politics under the new constitution and new king82

The truth behind “conservative tilt” of Indonesian Islam: the case of Jakarta Governor’s trial
Protest movement against the Governor led by a minority conservative Islam group gained unexpected tractions.
One can see the strategy of the conservatives that tailor to changes in politics and society from this “case” ofincumbent Governor’s election loss and his guilty verdict for the blasphemy charges.
Ken Miichi (Waseda University)

86

Mindanao’s martial law and Islam extremists: The details of Marawi siege

90

Four Middle Eastern countries have severed diplomatic ties with Qatar as a counterterrorism measureFirst-ever Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation had 130 countries attending with 1,500 participants.
The author analyzes “light and shadow” of Chinese politics and economy.
Rumi Aoyama (Waseda University)
Thailand is working towards building a new political structure following the promulgation of new constitution. Howwill the new constitution change politics in Thailand? Will the new king have any impact?
Yasuhito Asami (Hosei University)

The island of Mindanao is under chaos. The backdrop of the fight is the activities of faction-split Islamic extremists
and deterioration of social situation due to prolonged fighting. Can Duterte administration establish governance?
Midori Kawashima (Sophia University)

Saudi Arabia and other countries have cut ties with Qatar. Underlying reason for this was the anger of surrounding
countries towards the government of Qatar, which has not taken adequate steps for counter-terrorism.
Satoru Nakamura (Kobe University)

FOCUS◎ Peace building and PKO
98Roundtable: Pondering peace building in areas of conflict ? experiences from South Sudan
SDF engineering units that played an active role in the United Nation’s Mission in South Sudan has withdrawn.
Based on its achievements, the discussants talk about the future assistance towards South Sudan and PKO strategy.
Eisei Kurimoto (Osaka University)／Kazuhiko Koshikawa (JICA)／Akio Miyajima (International Peace
Cooperation Headquarters)／Daisaku Higashi (Sophia University)

112

Surging tide of UN peacekeeping operations and Japan

118

Cambodia, Iraq, and South Sudan: Ability of SDF backed by experience

124

Making peace in South Sudan through sports: JICA’S grassroots sports promotion
South Sudan is in turmoil, but the reconciliation between ethnic groups and attempts toward national integration
through sports is starting to bare fruit. The author looks at a Japanese-style contribution to peace.
Mitsuaki Furukawa (JICA)

130

International Peace Cooperation through ODA: Human rights, development, peace building. ThisOn the basis of world trend regarding PKO, this essay looks back at the implications and achievements of Japan’s UN
peacekeeping operations. Furthermore, the author demonstrates the deepening of a relay-style, all-Japan coordiation.
Yuji Uesugi (Waseda University)
Koichiro Bansho has had various experience in crucial position within the SDF, including Japanese Iraq
Reconstruction and Support Group. We asked him about SDF’s mission in the field of international peacecooperation, background and implications of the expansion of missions, its achievements, and future challenges.
Koichiro Bansho (National Security Secretariat)

article looks back at Japan’s trach record of creating cycles of “peace dividends” through its ODA in the Asianregion and examines the future contribution towards peace building.
Takao Imafuku (MOFA)

Special Feature:

Can we overcome
the North Korean crisis?

6

Cover Story Interview:B to D strategy

Japan should forge ahead with TPP11: Japan as a leader of global economy
Diplomacy and business is closely connected, so they produce various mutual effects. The head of Japan’s
leading trading firm mulls the future direction of the free trade system wavering under the beginning of Trumpadministration and Japan’s future course.
Masami Iijima (Representative Director, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Mitsui & Co., Ltd.)

13

Discussion over missile defense has entered a new phase

22

Strategy towards a new “containment”

28

Will the Kim Jong Un regime proceed with a diplomatic offensive?

34

North Korean economy is growing gradually39

Can the US draw a blueprint to shift from sanction to dialogue?

46

Truth and falsehood of “leaving it to China”: North Korea’s nuclear development and China
Will North Korea really abandon its nuclear and missile development through Chinese pressure? The author
examines its effectiveness by analyzing changes in China-North Korea relations, US-China relations, and theaim of President Trump.
Lim Jaehwan (Aoyama Gakuin University)

52

Moon Jae-in administration faces a dilemma between security and unification

Itsunori Onodera is the Chairman of the LDP panel on ballistic missile defense, which submitted a proposal
urging the government to quickly establish a missile defense structure against the military threat of North Korea.
We asked him about the effectiveness and challenges of missile defense.
Itsunori Onodera (Member of the House of Representatives)
We must look squarely at the “inconvenient truths” of North Korea, Japan, and all parties involved in order toprevent a military confrontation. A solution should be sought based on this understanding.
Masahiro Akiyama (former Administrative Vice-Minister of Defense)
What will North Korea demand after the successful launch test of the ICBM? The author argues that analyzing
Kim Jong Un’s style of governance, which is different from that of his father Kim Jong Il, without bias is crucial.
Atsuhito Isozaki (Keio University)
This article examines various questions surrounding North Korea by looking at the following factors: basic datasuch as population and land; North Korea’s governing structure; military-first politics as North Korea’s governing
principle; leadership of Kim Jong Un; economic situation; and China’s influence.
Atsushi Ijuin (Japan Center for Economic Research)
A preparation for “dialogue” in addition to “sanctions” towards North Korea’s denuclearization should be done.
This essay examines the relationship between various actors’ “interests” with an eye on the state that holds thekey, United States.
Narushige Michishita (GRIPS)

Differences in thinking towards the unification of the Korean peninsula creates friction between ROK and North
Korea. President Moon’s reconciliatory policy towards North Korea is swayed by North Korea’s strategy towards
ROK and US, which seeks “acceptation of existence.”
Tadashi Kimiya (University of Tokyo)

TREND 201766

UK politics in disarray and the future of Brexit negotiations

The future of Brexit has quickly become opaque due to the surprising loss of Conservative Party in the “snap”
general election, called by Prime Minister Theresa May in order to strengthen the domestic basis for Brexit.
What will happen to UK politics, shaken by generational and educational schisms? What will become of Brexit?
Daisuke Ikemoto (Meiji Gakuin University)