Potential impacts of climate change
to water and adaptation plan inVietnam

Dr. Hoang Duong Tung
Center for Environmental Monitoring
Vietnam Environment Administration

Evident of Climate changes in Vietnam: (Source:Climate change, sea level rise scenarios, Monre 2009)- Temperature: 1958-2007 annual average increase
0.5-0.7 oC- Rainfall: Decreasing in Northern part, andincreasing in Southern part. Average 1958-2007:
decreasing 2%- Cold fronts reduced in the last two decades. But
anomalous more frequently- Typhoon: more typhoon with higher intensity- Drizzle: average number of drizzle days in Hanoi
decreased during last 10 years- Sea level: 3mm/year during 1993-2008 (in Hondau:20cm over 50 years)
2Impact example:- 1996-2008: typhoon, land slides,flooding, drought
9600 people died, lost 1.5%
GDP/year- 2007: 435 died, damage of 7800
houses, 113,800 ha of rise, 1500kmof dikes in total 11,600 billions VND, 1%
GDP- Early 2008: cold front last 40 days 34

21 st century Scenarios for Vietnam- Most harmonious scenario is the medium one(B2) is recommended to all stakeholders- Scenarios for temperature and rainfall: for 7
climate zones in Vietnam: North West, North
East, North Delta, North Central, South
Central, Central Highlands, and South- High uncertainties in prediction

5Temperature: by the end of century- Increasing by 2.3oC compared to1980-1990 period.
- In Northern and Northern Centralzones: increasing faster thanSouthern zones
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Rainfall:- Increasing by 5% compared to 19801990- In Northern: increasing more than inSouthern

7Sea level: (compared with 1980-1990
period)- Mid of 21 Century: 30cm
- End of 21 century: 75 cm8Most sensitive areas in Vietnam:- Mekong River Delta in the south- Red River Delta- Coastal zones in central areas- Cities: Hochiminh City, Can Tho, Hai
Phong, Hue, Ca Mau, ….
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Source: Climate change scenarios for Vietnam, Monre 2009

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Source: Climate change scenario for Vietnam, Monre 2009

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Source: Climate change scenario for Vietnam, Monre 2009

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Source: Climate change scenario for Vietnam, Monre 2009

Climate change:- Long term changes- Short term variability- Extreme events (droughts, heavy floods…)
Water quality= f(physical, chemical, biologicalcharacteristics)
Impacts:- Water quality deterioration- Ecosystem deterioration- Human health impacts
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Adaptation actions:
1. Central level: Monre is Standing Vice Chairman of National
Committee– Prime Minister’s Approval of National Target
Program to respond to Climate Change (Decision
158/2008/QD-TTg),2008– Monre’s Plan, June 2008: Climate change
Scenarios for Vietnam– Other line ministries and sectors: prepare
adaptation plans– Other actions: research, capacity preparation, publicawareness, workshops, ….

2. Provincial Level:– Prepare adaptation plans

16National Target Program to respond to Climate
Change (Decision 158/2008/QD-TTg),2008••••

3 phases: starting up (2009-2010), implementation (2011-2015),
development (2015 -)National Committee: Prime Minister- Chairman, Monre Minister –Standing Vice chairman. Members: Ministers of other ministries(MARD, Finance, Planning and Investment, Foreign affairs…)
Objective: assess CC impacts and develop feasible action plans
Tasks and solutions (for 2 phases):– assessment of CC extent and impacts in VN,– identification of measures to respond to CC,– development of science and technology program on CC,– strengthening capacities of organizations, institutions and policy on CC,– awareness raising and human resources development,– international cooperation,– mainstreaming CC issues into socio-economic,– sectoral and local development strategies, plans, and planning,– development of action plans of ministries, sectors and localities,– development and implement projects of the Program17

National Target Program to respond to Climate
Change (Decision 158/2008/QD-TTg),2008
NTP (Continued)• Financial mechanism and resource mobilization• Annex: list of 26 tasks and projects for implementing the National
Target Program (NTP), Total budget: 1965 billions VND

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We know- Many uncertainties remain; indeed, we expect thatuncertainties will always remain- At the same time, not everything is uncertain- In many cases and in many locations, there iscompelling scientific evidence that climate changes
will pose serious challenges to our water systems.
- It is vital that uncertainties not be used to delay or
avoid taking certain kinds of action now- A continued reliance solely on current engineering
practice may lead us to make incorrect – andpotentially dangerous or expensive – decisions.
19Possible impacts on water
environment• Flood frequencies in some areas are likely to change.
• Drought frequencies in some areas are likely tochange.
• Higher sea levels will push salt water further inland inrivers, deltas, and coastal aquifers, adversely affect
the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies inmany coastal areas.
• Water-quality problems will worsen where risingtemperatures: changes in flow, runoff rates andtiming, and the ability of watersheds to assimilate
wastes and pollutants complex positive and negativechanges in water quality
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Possible impacts on water
environment• Aquatic ecosystems can be highly sensitive to hydroclimatic factors, particularly water temperature, water
quality, the probability of extreme events, and flow
volumes, rates, and timing.
• Relative sea-level rise adversely affects groundwateraquifers and freshwater coastal ecosystems.
• Lakes: lake levels and salinity, nutrient cycling andproductivity, stressing for cold-water fish, improved
habitat for warm-water fish, increased productivity
and lower dissolved oxygen, and degraded water
quality.
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Key messages for adaptation:-Is not stand alone issue
Need to be integrated into all
development planning
Require capacity for short and longplanning
Require substantial funding22

Challenges for Vietnam
1. Identification of adaptation options,priorities
2. Planning and implementing
adaptation: roles of stakeholders
3. Capacity and resources: human,financial, and technical
4. Public awareness and participation
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Issues to be covered•

Strong national climate and water monitoring and research
program should be developed,•

Better methods of planning under climate uncertainty should
be developed and applied.

•Governments at all levels should re-evaluate legal, technical,and economic approaches for managing water resources in
the light of potential climate changes.

•Improvements in the efficiency of end uses and theintentional management of water demands must now be
considered major tools for meeting future water needs,
particularly in water-scarce regions.

•Water managers should begin a systematic reexamination ofengineering designs, operating rules, contingency plans, andwater allocation policies under a wider range of climate
conditions and extremes than have been used traditionally.
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Issues to be concerned (cont.)•

Cooperation between water agencies and leading scientificorganizations can facilitate the exchange of information on
the state-of-the-art thinking about climate change andimpacts on water resources.

•The timely flows of information among the scientific globalchange community, the public, and the water-management
community are valuable.

•Traditional and alternative forms of new supply can play arole in addressing changes in both demands and supplies
caused by climate changes and variability: wastewater
reclamation and reuse, water marketing and transfers,•

Prices and markets are increasingly important for balancingsupply and demand.

•Legal tools for managing and allocating water resources.

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Thanks for your attention

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