IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

March 29, 2012
2nd Transport Future Workshop
Keidanren Kaikan in Tokyo, Japan

Analysis of CO2 Emissions to Consider
Future Technologies and Integrated
Approaches in the Road Transport Sector
Shuichi KANARI
Japan Automobile Research InstituteShigeru Suehiro
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanIEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion※CEAMAT：Energy Analysis model for the long term in road the transport sector
2

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
3

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Introduction
Background Increasing concerns about energy security and global climate change Necessity of energy saving, fuel diversification and reduction ofgreenhouse gas
 Not enough evaluation of long term technical scenarios in the roadtransport sector
 Not considering cost-effectiveness and realizing fuel economy improvement
technologies
 Restriction of analysis vehicle target (e.g. only Passenger cars)

PurposeDevelopment of long term CO2 reduction scenarios to consider future
automotive technologies and integrated approaches in the Japanese
automotive sector.
1. Construction of a database with demand of the road transport sector
and future automotive technologies
2. Development of cost-effectiveness tools for future automotive
technologies
3. Scenario analysis
4. Analysis of CO2 reduction with integrated approaches

4

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
5

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

What is CEAMAT?
CEAMAT is an analysis energy model for the road transport sector for the
long-term (-2050)
The IEEJ 2050 model is an energy analysis model for all sectors worldwide,
developed by The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPANCEAMAT links with the IEEJ2050 model
IEEJ 2050 model (World)
Estimation of Economy/Energy/
No. of Vehicles• World population• Each country/region GDP• Energy consumption of eachsector• Primary energy consumption• Cost of fuel and electricity• Vehicle demand• No. of new vehicle sales/ in use

CEAMAT (Japan)
Estimation of Fuel Economy and
Vehicle Number by Each Technology• Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle• Biofuel Vehicle• HEV・PHEV・EV• FCV• NGV・LPG• Other

Estimation of Fuel Demand• Oil（Gasoline/Diesel）• Biofuel• Electricity• Hydrogen• CNG・LPG• Synthetic fuel• Other

Integrated Approaches●Improving Traffic flow
●Eco-driving

Social Cost
●Emission of GHG ●Vehicle cost / fuel cost●Social cost （infrastructure, tax, etc.）

Output• Energy consumption• CO2 emissions• Annual total cost

Analysis
Scenario
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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Target Vehicle Type and Class Vehicle section, focus on the Japanese automotive market
Passenger car

Truck

Bus

Middle

Large

Large

(＞ 2000cc)(GVW ＞ 8t)(GVW ＞ 8t)

Small

MiddleSmall(≦ 2000cc)(3.5t＜GVW ≦ 8t)(GVW ≦ 8t)

Mini

Small

(≦ 660cc)(GVW ≦3.5t)
Mini(≦ 660cc)

Passenger car

Truck

Bus

7

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Target Automotive Technologies
Technology
GICEV
GICEHEVDICEVDICEHEVHICEV
HICEHEV
CNGV
DMEV
LPGV
EV
HFCV
GICEPHEVDICEPHEVHFCPHEV

Fuel path

Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Gasoline/Ethanol
Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Vehicle
Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Diesel oil/BDF
Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Vehicle
Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Hydrogen/Gasoline
Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Vehicle
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicle
CNG
Dimethylether Vehicle
DME
Liquefied Petroleum Gas Vehicle
LPG
Electric Vehicle
Electricity
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle
Hydrogen
Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Gasoline/Electricity
Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle
Diesel oil/Electricity
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle
Hydrogen/Electricity
EV
GICEV(mixed Bio-ethanol)

GICEHEVCNGVDICEV(mixed Bio-diesel)

HICEV

GICEPHEVHFCV8IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Model Structure for New Vehicles
Base Vehicle
WeightEngine PowerHEV Fuel
EconomyICE Fuel
EconomyBase Vehicle
Cost

Vehicle WeightICE Fuel Estimation
FormulaElectric Charger
Coefficient⊿Engine Cost

⊿Engine Weight⊿Fuel Tank Weight⊿Fuel Tank Cost

⊿Motor Weight⊿Battery Weight⊿Motor Cost
EV Fuel Estimation
Formula (DC)EV Electric
Economy(AC)⊿Battery Cost

⊿FC System Weight⊿Battery Coefficient

ICE Fuel Consumption
Improvement Cost

Vehicle Cost

⊿FC System Cost
FC System Coefficient

FC FuelEconomy(AC)⊿Plug-in Additional
Cost

Vehicle Cost
Sub Model

Fuel Economy
Sub Model
Fuel Economy
Fuel Cost per Unit

Usage Age
Fuel Cost per Year

Vehicle Cost
Automotive Tax

Driving Distanceper Year

Total Cost for Usage AgeLine-up Number

Formula Selecting Each Technology

Sales Number

Each Technology Sale Number

Each Technology New
Sales Number Sub Model9

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Related Probability of Technology Choice andDriving Distance (e.g. GICEV vs. GHEV)
Probability of technology choice (Pr) is estimated by total cost in the
depreciation period and Line-up number for each distance.
1k exp( 0  CTk )
Prk 
1
M
k 'K k '  exp( 0  CTk ' )M

k：Technology section
K：Assembly technology section
CTk：Total cost in usage period
Mk：Line-up numberθ0 , θ 1：Parameter (θ 0=-6.46, θ 1=0.94)

Probability technology choice

100%
80%
60%
40%

GICEHEV
GICE

20%
0%

Annual driving distance (km/year)
10

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
11

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Demand of the Transport Sector and Fuel Price in the
IEEJ2050 Model
Vehicle mileage traveled（ VMT： billion person・ km）

700
600
500
400

Passenger car

300

Bus

200
100
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Number of
Vehicles in Use

35,000
Annual driving distance （ km/year）

Demand of Passenger car（Passenger car & Bus）

800

30,00025,000

Passenger car
Truck
Bus

20,00015,00010,000
5,000
0
2005

2050

2010 2015 2020

Year

2045

2050

10

350
300
250
200
Truck

150
100

Demand of
freight （Truck）

50
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

2035

2040

2045

2050

FUel price（ with tax： Yen/MJ）

Traffic volume（ Billion ton・ km）

2030 2035 2040

Year

400

0
2005

2025

Fuel Price8
Gasoline

6

Diesel oil
4

CNG
Electricity

2

Hydrogen02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

12

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Efficiency and Price of Future Technologies in ICEVBase vehicle：Standard vehicles in the year 2000
Choice of good cost-effectiveness technology combinations
Determination of approximate curve to use good cost-effectiveness technology
combinations
Gasoline Direct Injection（Stoichimetric）
Gasoline HCCI
Cam Phasing
Engine Downsizing
EGR
Improved Engine Friction
EngineImproved firing chamber
Other normal
advance technologies
Turbo Compound
Variable Compression Ratio
Valuable Valve Timing
2 stages Turbo
After treatment Device
CVT
5AT
6AT
Multiple Transmission
Transmission
High Differential Gears Ratio
Direct-connected maximum gear
Dual Clutch
AMT
Electric Power Steering
Accessories
Improved Alternator
Electric Accessories

Passenger
Truck
car
○
○
○
○
○
○
○

○
○
○
○

○

○

○

○
○
○
○
○

○
○
○

○
○
○
○

○
○
○
○
○

25
Additionnal Price （ 10,000yen）

Improving FE Technology

Price curve（Passenger car）

20
15

Middle
10

Small
Mini

5
0
0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

140

Price curve（Truck）

120
100

Large
Middle

80

Small

60

Mini

40
20
0
0%

○

10%

Improving fuel economy ratio（ %）Additional Price（ 10,000yen）

Groping

5%

10%

15%

20%

Improving fuel economy ratio（ %）

25%

30%

13

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Scenario of Future Technological Factors with EV and HFCV
Price and efficiency of battery and fuel cell systems in the future are based on government andprivate sector reports and interviews.
Future scenarios are efficiency improvement and a lower price, considering advance technologies
and mass production.
Truck's part prices are higher than part of passenger car prices, because system accessories arelarger and more expensive.
Battery
Weight10
8
6

Passenger car
Truck

4
2
0
2005

2010

2015

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0.20
0.15

Passenger car

0.10

0.00
2005

Truck

Fuel cell system efficiency
improving Ratio
20102015 2020 2025 2030
Year

50
40
Passenger car

30

Truck

20
10
2010

2015

2020

2035

2040 2045 2050

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

90

0.25

0.05

Battery
Price

60

0
2005

2050

Year

0.30
Imrovement ratio of FC system
effiiciency

2020

Battery Price（ 10,000yen/kWh）70

FC system price（ 10,000yen/kW）

Battery Weight（ kg/kWh）1280

Fuel cellsystem Price

70
60
50
40

Passenger car

30

Truck

20
10
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

2035

2040

2045

2050

14

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

New Vehicle Energy Economy and Price（e.g. Small Passenger car）
All technologies improved energy economy, considering advancetechnology factors such as ICE technologies, battery and fuel cost.
Improvement technologies price of improving are added to ICEV's
vehicle price.
Other new automobiles come down in price to reflect mass productionof technology factors (Battery and fuel cell system, etc.).

2,900

Fuel economy（JC08 mode）

2.0

Vehicle
price

2,700
Vehicle price（ 1,000yen）

Fuel economy （ MJ/km）

2.5

2,500
GICEV
2,300
GICEHEV
2,100
DICEV
1,900
EV
1,700
HFCV
1,500
GICEPHEV

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

GICEV
GICEHEV
DICEV
EV
HFCV
GICEPHEV

1,300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

15

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

New Vehicle Energy Economy and Price（e.g. Large Truck）
Trend of fuel economy and vehicle price is shown, same as small
passenger cars
All technologies improved energy economy, considering advancetechnology factors such as ICE technologies, battery and fuel cost.
Improvement technologies price of improving are added to ICEV's
vehicle price.
Other new automobiles come down in price to reflect mass productionof technology factors (Battery and fuel cell system, etc.).
Fuel economy（JE05 mode）

18
14

Vehicle price（ 1,000yen）

Fuel economy（ MJ/km）

16

Vehicleprice

20,00019,000
DICEV
18,000
DICEHEV

DICEV

CNGV
17,000
EV

CNGV

HFCV

2

HFCV
16,000DICEPHEV

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15,0002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

12
10
8
6
4

Year

DICEHEVEVDICEPHEVYear

16

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
17

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Number of New Vehicles and Vehicles in Use（Passenger Car）
Number of new vehicles （ 1,000Units）

5,000

Number of
new vehicles

4,500
4,000

DICEPHEV

3,500

GICEPHEV

3,000

HFCV

2,500

EV

2,000

LPGV

1,500

CNGV

1,000

DICEHEV

500

DICEV

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Number of vehicles in use（ Million Units）

Other

70

Number ofvehicles in use

60Number of new vehicles
Share of next generation vehicles※：48%（2050）

GICEHEVGICEV
Other
DICEPHEVGICEPHEV

50

HFCV

40

EV

30

LPGV
CNGV

20

DICEHEV

10

DICEV

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

GICEHEV
GICEV

Number of vehicles in use
Share of next generation vehicles ：43%（2050）※Next generation vehicles are HEV，EV，PHEV，FCVand CNGV．This definition is from a report by METI,“Diffusion report of next generation vehicles 2010”
written in Japanese.
18

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Fuel economy vehicles in use （ MJ/km）

Fuel Economy of Vehicles in Use and TtW CO2 Emissions
in the Passenger Car Sector
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005
160
TtW CO2 emissions （ Mt-CO2）

Fuel economy ofvehicles in use

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Year

2040

2045

2050

CO2 emissions in 2050:-55%（Based on 2005）

CO2
Emissions

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

2035

2040

2045

2050

19

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Number of New Vehicles and Vehicles in Use（Truck）
Number of new vehicles（ 1,000 Units）

180

Number of
new vehicles

160

DICEPHEV140

GICEPHEV

120

HFCV

100

EV

80

LPGV

60

CNGV

40

DICEHEV

20

DICEV

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Number of vehicles in use （ Million units）

Other

3.5

Number ofvehicles in use

3.0

GICEHEVDICEPHEV

EV

1.5

LPGV
CNGV

1.0

DICEHEV

0.5

DICEV

0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

56%（2050）
Small and mini trucks (GVW: 3.5t
and under, trucks) have a similar
trend to passenger cars.

Other

HFCV

2.0

Share of next generation vehicles：

GICEV

GICEPHEV

2.5

Number of new vehicles （GVW :3.5t over）

GICEHEV
GICEV

Number of vehicles in use (GVW :3.5t over)Share of next generation vehicles:

48%（2050）
Small and mini trucks (GVW: 3.5t
and under, trucks) have a similar
trend to passenger cars.

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Fuel Economy of Vehicles in Use and TtW CO2 Emissions（Truck Sector）
Fuel economy of vehicles in use（ MJ/km）

10

Fuel economy ofvehicles in use

86Large & Middle

4

Small & Mini

2
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

120
CO2 emissions （ Mt-CO2）

2025

CO2 emissions in 2050
-36%（Based on 2005）

CO2
emissions

100
80
60
40
20
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

2035

2040

2045

2050

21

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

CO2 Emissions（Road Transport Sector）
TtW CO2 emissions（ Mt-CO2）

250

Passenger car
Truck
Bus

200
150
100
50
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

CO2 emissions in 2050：-47%（Based on 2005）

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
23

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Analysis Process of CO2 Reduction for Eco-driving
CO2 reduction of eco-driving per unit
Passenger car： 13%
Truck：
9%
Average of 9organizations※

Each CO2 reduction foreco-driving
Passenger car ： 9%
Truck ：
6%

Popularization ratio of eco-driving in 2050
Passenger car & Truck ： 70%
Energy ITS researchmeeting report
Result of CEAMAT
CO2 weighting factor in 2050
(Based on vehicle mileage traveled)
Passenger car： 65%
Truck：
35%

CO2 reduction foreco-driving
Total ： 8%

9 organizations of evaluating eco-driving：
NIES，Libertas terra Co.Ltd，HONDA R&D CO.Ltd
24
IID.Inc. NTSEL，LEVO, etc

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Analysis Process of CO2 Reduction to Improving Traffic Flow
GDP in Japan

300
250
200
150
100
50

Changing average
speed in Japan

40%
Driving DIstance Distribution

Speed vs. CO2 emissions

350
CO2 emission factor (g/km)

Road project cost in Japan

35%
30%
25%

Speed distribution（all vehicle categories）

20%
15%

2005

10%

2050

5%
0%

0
0

20

40

60

80

100

Average speed (km/h)

Energy ITS researchmeeting report
Item

Average speed range (km/h)

CO2 reduction to road improvement
Total ： 4%
CO2 Reduction

Platooning

0.2%

Traffic light control（Only vehicle）
Traffic light control（link up with infrastructure）
Full route information

0.04%

Predicting optimal starting time

0.1%

2%
1.4%

CO2 reduction to
implement technologies
Total ： 4%

CO2 reduction to
improving traffic flow
Total ： 7%

25

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CO2 Reduction for Integrated Approaches(Road Transport Sector)
TtW CO2 emissions （ Mt-CO2）

250
200
150
100
Baselinecase

50

Baselinecase+Integrated approach
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Technological composition is assumed to be thesame as the Baseline case, that is without
integrated approach.
CO2 Reduction in 2050：
55% based on 2005（Baseline case：47%）

26

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Contents
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT※（Model Structure, Analysis Target）

３．Input Data
（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）

４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
4.1 Passenger Car Sector
4.2 Truck Sector
4.3 Road Transport Sector

５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
27

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Conclusion
A cost-effectiveness analysis tool including an automotive database withadvanced technologies were developed, and future scenarios wereanalyzed. In addition, integrated approaches were researched andcalculated about reducing CO2 emission potential.
1.

From the result of this scenario analysis, CO2 reduction
potential of the road transport sector with next generation
automobiles is calculated as 47% (based on 2005) in 2050.

2.

CO2 reduction potential from next generation automobiles andintegrated approaches (Improving traffic flow and Eco-driving) is
calculated as 55% (based on 2005) in 2050.

From the result of CO2 potential from improving traffic flow and ecodriving, we’ve shown it is necessary to popularize next generation
automobiles and integrated approaches.

28

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Thank you for your attention!

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp