Analogues of an Arctic in Rapid Transition, WGAnalogueART

Introduction and reference:
Rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are causing worldwide modification of surface
seawater carbonate chemistry, with gradual reductions in pH and carbonate ion (CO23-)
availability, in a process known as ocean acidification (OA). As water masses in the northern
Norwegian Sea and the polar ocean have relatively low water temperature (causing a highsolubility of CO2) and low pH these regions have a naturally low calcium carbonate (CaCO3)
saturation state (Chierici and Fransson, 2009; Chierici et al. 2016). It is one of the first areas
already being affected by shifting boundaries of carbonate with rapid expansion of areas
where organisms may experience limitations in calcification within the next few years if therate of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are not reduced (Olafsson et al. 2009, AMAP
2013). The polar ocean is experiencing one of the most rapid shifts in biogeographic
boundaries on the planet due to polar and tundra ice melt coupled with rapid warming andacidification – these all affect the ecology of marine organisms. Whilst rapid adaptation andshifts in benthic flora are expected (Brodie et al. 2014), long-lived benthic animals in theregion often show limited metabolic plasticity which may reduce their chances ofadapting/acclimatising to changing environments (e.g. Rastrick & Whiteley 2011, 2013).
Ocean acidification is expected to have direct consequences for many commercially
important calcifying species in northern waters, such as crabs, lobsters, shrimp and scallops(Paralithodes camtschaticus, Homarus gammarus, Pandalus borealis, Pecten maximus,Chlamys islandica) (Agnalt et al. 2013, Andersen et al. 2013, Dupont et al. 2014, Hall-Spencer& Allen 2015).
Acidified seawater will severely impact the extensive biogenic habitats around northern
Norway created by coralline algae (Brodie et al. 2014) and cold-water corals (Jackson et al.
2014), this is expected to impact nursery and brood stock areas for commercially importantmolluscs and fish (Branch et al. 2013, Sunday et al. in press). Although a number studies
have shown adult fish to be relatively resistant to elevated pCO2, they many suffer
neurological impairment (Milazzo et al. 2016) and a recent study showed increasedmortality in Atlantic cod larvae resulting in reduced recruitment to the stock (Stiasny et al.
2016). Our current understanding of key processes driving the response of commercially
important species and ecosystems to climate change is, however, limited since the majorityof studies conducted so far have been in vitro, short-term, rapid perturbation experiments
on isolated elements of the ecosystem (Agnalt et al. 2013, Andersen et al. 2013). It isdifficult to extrapolate from such studies to larger scales, as these are generally too shortterm to reveal how organisms may adapt/acclimatise, have often set steady pCO2 levels(which are unrealistic) and use organisms that are separated from their natural suite ofcompetitors, predators, parasites and facilitators.

One approach to study the ecosystem effects of predicted future chronic elevations in mean
pCO2 as well as associated increases in acute fluctuations in carbonate chemistry due tofreshwater run off is to use natural analogies. Such analogues for future predicted OA haveincluded volcanic CO2 vent sites (e.g. Hall-Spencer et al. 2008), up-welling of deep CO2 richwater (Manzello et al. 2014) and temperate systems which present a mosaic of alkalinityand pH conditions (Thomsen et al. 2010). These natural analogies provide an opportunity tosimultaneously investigate changes in naturally assembled community structure (e.g. HallSpencer et al. 2008, Kroeker et al. 2013) and the capacity for physiological
adaptation/acclimatisation of key species in responses to elevated pCO2 and low carbonate
ion concentration (e.g. Calosi et al. 2013, Harvey et al. 2016). In addition, broader
evolutionary responses to past and future pCO2 changes can be addressed (Garilli et al.
2015). They have also been used to investigate the importance of natural variability incarbonate chemistry on the mechanisms that set the distribution of species (e.g. Small et al.
2015) and to investigate the effect of multiple stressors in naturally fluctuating
environments (e.g. Thomsen et al. 2010, Kroeker et al. 2016). Recent studies have identified
how shifting boundaries of water and ice in subarctic and arctic systems create mosaics ofalkalinity and pH conditions (Fransson et al. 2015; 2016) which could be used as naturalanalogues to investigate the effects of climate change and OA on the physiology, ecology
and distribution of flora and fauna in northern ecosystems. However, to date, despite thepotential for natural OA analogues at higher latitudes such studies are limited to the Baltic
in cold-water ecosystems.
Consequently, this working group will act as a platform to develop methodologies andaccelerate the establishment of natural analogues to investigate the effects of climatechange and OA in subarctic and arctic ecosystems. To do this the working group will achievethe following:
Terms of Reference (ToRs):
1.
Identify the advantages of using natural analogues to assess the posable effects ofclimate change and OA.
2.
Identify the disadvantages and difficulties of using natural analogue approaches anddevelop new methodologies and codes of best practise to move forward.
3.
Identify suitable natural analogues for future research into climate change and OA in
the subarctic and arctic waters.
4.
Form a strong cross disciplinary group of experienced researchers to support futureapplications for funding work into this topic.
Implementation plan:2017- Establish the working group from the workshop “Using natural analogues toinvestigate the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on northern ecosystems”
held at the ESASS open science meeting in Tromsø, Norway.
2017- prepare a manuscript “Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climatechange and ocean acidification on northern ecosystems”
2018- Synthesis available water chemistry data and select posable natural analogue sites forfurther investigation.
2018- Organise a workshop at the ESASS annual meeting, identified and develop further
funding opportunities and develop a peer group to support and review funding applications
prior to submission.
2018- Submit funding applications.
2019- Organise a workshop at the ESASS annual meeting.
2019- Synthesis data from selected natural analogue sites and select the most appropriate
for further biological investigation (dependent on the success of 2018 funding applications).
2020- Organise a workshop at the ESASS annual meeting.
2020- Publish a review of suitable natural analogues for future research into climate change
and OA in the subarctic and arctic waters.
Deliverables:
2017-2018- Publication “Using natural analogues to investigate the effects of climate change
and ocean acidification on northern ecosystems”.
2018-2019- A strong cross disciplinary of experienced researchers to support and review
funding applications prior to submission.
2018-2019- Submitted funding applications.
2019-2020- Publish a review of suitable natural analogues for future research into climatechange and OA in the subarctic and arctic waters.
Members:
Samuel Rastrick (Chair)
Melissa Chierici
Kumiko Azetsu Scott
Agneta Fransson
Haakon Hop
Jason Hall-Spencer

Marco Milazzo
Tina Kutti
Peter Thor
Piero Calosi