August 9, 2012
Mr. Richard Pool
Golden Gate Salmon Association
1370 Auto Center DrivePetaluma, CA 94952

Dear Mr. Pool:
We looked into updating our previous economic impact estimatesassociated with recreational salmon fishing in California. Please accept this letteras a presentation of the best estimates available along with a description of themethodology and data sources used.
As described below, our data sources were the U.S. Department ofCommerce’s National Marine Fisheries Service and the California Department ofFish and Game. We sought to update our 2006 estimates to 2010/2011, but thedata necessary to estimate the economic impacts of salmon harvests were notavailable for these years. Therefore, we will stick with the 2006 estimates which
are summarized as:
SalesJobs
Impact1
Impact---------------------Total 2004-2006 Commercial andRecreational Activity$1.4 billion
23,000Estimate of the Future Returns if Salmon
were Restored to their Full Potential$5.7 billion

94,000Commercial Fisheries:
To estimate the potential impacts from a restored commercial salmon
fishery, average landings for 2004 and 2005 were used as they represent rathersteady harvests. Harvests began to decrease rapidly in 2006 down to practicallynothing in 2008 and 2009. In 2004 and 2005, salmon on average represented
12% of the total value of California’s commercial fisheries landings. Assuming
the mark-ups and value added from salmon processing, distribution and retailwere the same as for all other commercial fisheries in California as reported byNOAA, then the economic impacts for commercial salmon harvests at ‘normal’2004 and 2005 levels would have been:
1

Sales impacts = Sales by California businesses.
P.O. Box 6435
Fernandina BeachFlorida 32035
904-277-9765
904-261-1145 (fax)
Rob@southwickassociates.com
www.southwickassociates.com

Sales impacts (total sales that occur in the CA economy): $1.17 billion
Income impacts (salaries/wages/benefits, sole proprietor earnings): $608
million
Employment (full and part time): 21,480
All data for these commercial salmon impacts were not produced bySouthwick Associates but instead were obtained directly from the National
Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) annual report Fisheries Economics of theUnited States, 2006 (Economic and Sociocultural Analysis Division, National
Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD. 2007). The 2006 impacts
provided in my estimates were not changed in any way as reported by NMFS.
This source provided information on the number of fish harvested, the dollars perpound received by fishermen, and the economic impacts of these dollars,including the multiplier effects. These data were produced by NOAA Fisheries
economists and statisticians. The commercial impact calculations were produced
in a straightforward fashion. We assumed the impacts per fish would be thesame as in 2006, and simply matched the impacts per pound with the total
pounds harvested in 2004-05.
Looking back, salmon landings in 2004 and 2005 (6.06 million lbs) were
well under historic landings from previous decades. If salmon can be reestablished to historic levels, annual commercial harvests could realisticallyreach 25 million pounds. At such levels, assuming no change in the economic
impacts per pound of fish landed from current levels, economic impacts fromcommercial salmon landings could reach:
Sales impacts (total sales that occur in the CA economy): $4.83 billion
Income impacts (salaries/wages/benefits, sole proprietor earnings): $2.51billion
Employment (full and part time): 88,672

Recreational Fisheries:
Recreational impacts were produced using several sources. The numberof salmon fishing trips in California in 2006 was measured by the California
Department of Fish and Game via its California Recreational Fisheries Survey(CRFS). This same data source reported the total number of recreational fishingtrips for salmon and all other species combined. With these data, we estimatedthe percentage of all California marine recreational fishing attributable to salmon.
The economic impacts generated by each marine sportfishing trip in
California were also obtained directly from the National Marine FisheriesService’s (NMFS) Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2006. Just like theP.O. Box 6435
Fernandina Beach
Florida 32035
904-277-9765
904-261-1145 (fax)
Rob@southwickassociates.com
www.southwickassociates.com

commercial fisheries data, the impact information including multipliers obtained
from NMFS were not changed in any way. We matched the two data sources toestimate impacts attributable to recreational salmon fishing.
Economic impacts were not available specifically for salmon fishing.
Instead, they were only available by fishing method such as fishing from a boator from shore. Considering most salmon fishing is done from boats, we first
determined the impacts generated by California marine anglers using boats.
Next, an adjustment was made to account only for boat trips targeting salmon.
According to CRFS, in 2004 and 2005, 14.82% of California’s marine boat fishingtrips targeted salmon. Assuming the economic impacts per trip are consistentregardless of species targeted, the economic impacts associated with salmon
trips would have been expected to average approximately:
Total sales impacts (total sales that occur in the CA economy): $204.8
millionValue-added impacts (salaries/wages/benefits, proprietors & property
income, dividends, excise & sales taxes ): $107.2 million
Employment (full and part time): 1,345
Just like the commercial fisheries analysis presented earlier, therecreational analysis is based on 2004-2005 data. A healthy, well-managed
fishery would reasonably be expected to allow for additional recreational fishingtrips. If recreational fisheries could also increase by the same amount ascommercial landings as described above (4.13 times greater than 2004-05
levels), and assuming the impacts for the additional trips remain consistent, theeconomic impacts could reach up to:
Total sales impacts (total sales that occur in the CA economy): $845.8
millionValue-added impacts (salaries/wages/benefits, proprietors & property
income, dividends, excise & sales taxes ): $442.7 million
Employment (full and part time): 5,555

Combined Commercial and Recreational Impacts:
By adding the result for the commercial and recreational analyses above,
California had nearly 23,000 jobs related to salmon, and nearly $1.4 billion ineconomic activity:

P.O. Box 6435
Fernandina Beach
Florida 32035
904-277-9765
904-261-1145 (fax)
Rob@southwickassociates.com
www.southwickassociates.com

Commercial
RecreationalTotalSales Impacts$ 1.170 billion$ 205 million-------------$1.375 billion

Jobs:
21,4801,345--------------22,825

If historical salmon harvests could be reached again, the impacts would
increase significantly:
Sales Impacts
Jobs:
Commercial$ 4.830 billion
88,672
Recreational$ 846 million
5,555---------------------------Total$5.676 billion
94,227

We expect the former 2004-05 levels to be more realistic, but the latter
results may hopefully encourage California to strive for greater habitat restoration
goals.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to let me know. Thankyou.
Sincerely,

Rob Southwick ,President

P.O. Box 6435
Fernandina Beach
Florida 32035
904-277-9765
904-261-1145 (fax)
Rob@southwickassociates.com
www.southwickassociates.com