Tom Kram, Bas Eickhout

Land-use modelingwith IMAGE 2

EMF-22, December 13, 2006
Tsukuba, Japan

Contents• Coordinated baseline: Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment’s Adapting Mosaic (AM)
– IMAGE 2.2 in conjunction with IFPRI’s IMPACT model– Variations of coordinated baseline: CC feedback• New IMAGE 2.4 baseline– Coupled with LEITAP– Sensitivity cases: crop yield assumptions• Future plans:– Bioenergy: GTAP-E– Dynamic climate/vegetation/crop growth (not today!)

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Model structure in MA

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Coordinated baseline: energy use

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Regionally: South America versus China

More modern bioenergy in South America
More coal in China

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Agricultural production from IFPRI: animal products

Note: large increase in dairy products
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Agricultural production from IFPRI: food crops

Stronger growth in feed crops like maize and oil crops
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Land-use change

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Land-use change regionallySouth America versus China: most increases in China
already achieved. Regions where expansion is to be
expected are South America and Africa.
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Changes in emissions largely driven by energy

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But land-use emissions also increase(Methane: mainly animals and landfills)

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And for Nitrous oxide: fertilizer use

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EMF22-LU: Co-ordinated baseline• These were results from Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment• IMAGE 2.2 includes several feedbacks• What is the importance of CO2, climate and nofeedbacks?

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Land-use changes

Black: baseline
Blue: no feedback at all
Green: no climate feedback
Red: no CO2 feedback

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Change in yields

Temperate cereals versus maize:• cereals affected by climate -- maize hardly• both impacted by CO2 fertilization
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Consequences for CO2 uptake• CO2 uptake collapses in absence of CO2 fertilization• Temperature effect seems small.
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NPP constant without feedbacks (especially when
no CO2 fertilization effect is assumed)

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Regionally different results• CO2 fertilization always increases NPP• Climate effect can work in two directions:– Boreal: climate and CO2 have comparable effect (left)– Tropical: NPP is higher without climate feedback (right)

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CO2 concentration: big fertilization effect; hardly anet climate effect

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Temperature increase: no CO2 fertilization leads tolarger temperature increase

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IMAGE 2.4••••

Release of IMAGE 2.4 book
Update of base year to 2000
24 regions
More environmental impacts(nitrogen deposition,biodiversity)• Linking IMAGE with LEITAPBas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE

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Linking IMAGE and LEITAP• Endogenizing land supply within LEITAP– Availability of land
– Quality of land

• Including environmental feedbacks into LEITAP– CC effects on crop productivity• Accounting for intensive livestock production– Use of grass/fodder and foodcrops

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Taking environmental feedbacks into accounteconomic policy
global technical progress

World Vision(four scenarios
story lines)

social development

consumption patterninternational cooperation

Economic growth

Population growth

Demand on andproduction, trade in agricultural
manaproducts (GTAP)

gementfactor

Land use andenvironmental
development(IMAGE)

yield,
feedconversion

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Source: Eickhout et al., in press

sectoral technical progressEstimation results of the land supply curve
Land supply curve for :land used (%)
Canada
8.8
China
73.0
70r
3.4
16.0

R square
0.97
0.99
70 rr606050

50

404030302020

10

1000
3000003000001300000

2300000
data

3300000

4300000

estimated curve

5300000
2001

6300000

LL
1300000

2300000
data

3300000

4300000

estmated curve

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5300000

6300000

2001

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IMAGE 2.4 baseline• Population: UN Medium• OECD economic scenario (ENV-Linkages)• Convergence in labour participation andproductivity -> growth rates• No new policies assumed• Range of environmental impacts: CC, air quality,land cover, nutrient loading, N-deposition, waterstress, risk of erosion, biodiversity

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GDP per capita

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Energy use
Prima ry Ene rgy Inte nsity
MJ/$ppp30

T o ta l P rima ry E ne rg y
EJ
800

25700

20600

15500

10400
300

520001970

100

1990
OECD2010
BRIC

2030
Rest of World01970

1990
OECD2010
BRIC

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2030

RoW27

CO2 emissions from energyBas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE

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Crop production

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Animal production (more poultry)

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Land-use

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Sensitivity: increasing / decreasing yields ..

Blue: central assumption
Black: 2x yield increase rate
Red: 0.5x yield increase rate

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.. have a big effect on foodcrop area

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.. on CO2 concentration

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… and mean global surface temperature

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Future plans• Work of LEITAP (Martin Banse and Hans vanMeijl) on including bio-energy production coupledwith IMAGE/TIMER• Dynamic climate (SPEEDY), vegetation (LPJ) andcrop growth (LPJ-ml/Lintul) – not today!

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3.1) Modeling Biofuels in LEITAP: Approach
Figure: GTAP-E: Capital-Energy Composite
Capital-EnergyσKEEnergy

CapitalNon-electricElectricσNELY
Non-coal

σNCOL

Gas

Oil

Petroleum products

σENERCoal3.1) Modeling Biofuels in LEITAP: Approach
Where is the Bio-fuel?
FuelDiesel & gasoline

σDIESVeget.
oilOilNon-coal

σNCOL

Gas

σPETRO
EthanolPetroleum Sugar
products

Grain

σETHAN

ForestryThank you for your attention

www.mnp.nl/enor
www.mnp.nl/image

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