Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Changeand the Environment
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro – Brazil
www.centroclima.org.br

Residential and Transportation scenario
for LCS study Brazil Case
Report of last year’s activity
2008 AIM Trainingg WorkshoppWilliam Wills
ww@ufrj.br

Tsukuba,, Japanp
October 28, 2008

Overall assumptions in 2007
 Focus on ESS model utilization - rather than ‘polishing up’data Simple and basic settings
 Little knowledge of model PoorPddatat on residential
id ti l andd transporttt (house(hholdh ld applianceslipassengerkm)

 Main drivers considered for mitigation
 Efficiency
 Biomass and Solar energy
 Transportation modal shift from individual to massKeyy information - 2007
2000

2006

173.9
million188.7
million1.5

1.2

3,870.0

4,730.0644.5 billion

1.1 trillion

GDP growth (annual %)

43
4.3

37
3.7

Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)

6.2

4.3

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

56
5.6

51
5.1

Industry, value added (% of GDP)

27.7

30.9

Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)

66.7

64.0

Population, total
Population growth (annual %)GNI per capita,
it AtlasAtl method
th d (current(t US$)GDP (current US$)

Source: World Development Indicators database, April 2007

Key issues
Economic Data
• skewed income distribution – Getting better• informal economy – Getting better
Specificities of National Circumstances• energy resources endowment: relevance of hydropower (250,000 MW,only 20% tapped) and of biomass (30% of total energy supply in 2004)• relevance of emissions from land-use change : deforestation is themost important source in the short term
Agricultural land availability:•Land used by agriculture sector: 50 million ha;
Land used by sugar cane crops: 5 million ha;•Land•Estimated land for ethanol production: 2.5 million ha;•Total Brazilian agricultural land: 140 million ha ;g
90 million ha. ((not consideringg the amazon•Land still available for agriculture:region)

Key Residential parameters used
 118% increase in number of households – demographic drive ->choice to present BAU scenario

 10 to 20% hold rate increase in main services
 10 to 25% service loss decrease in main services
 Average 2x performance increase in energy efficiency
 Shift to biomass and solar

Key Residential Results-102030405060

Total Energy consumption
reduction

2000• 61% from BAU

2050 BAU (CM)

• 11% from base yyear

2050 Green (CM)COLOIL

GAS

BMS

S/W

Heat

H2ELE-

246GAS

BMS

S/W

81012142000

2050 BAU (CM)Total CO2 emission
reduction

2050 Green (CM)

• 71% from BAU• 38% from base year

COLOIL

Heat

H2ELE

Key Passenger Transportation
parameters used
 8% tript i generationti reductiond i 37% increase in number of trips – demographic drive -> choice topresent BAU scenario

 Modal shift from individual to mass transportation
S h a re %S c e n a rio
BAUG re e nCarBus

4 0 ,4 %2 0 ,0 %3 8 ,6 %4 1 ,0 %R a ilw a y

M a ritim e

A v ia tio n

0 ,9 %
1 0 ,0 %0 ,1 %
5 ,0 %

1 ,2 %
5 ,0 % Average 2x performance increase in energy efficiency
 Shift
Shif to biomass,bielectricl i andd little
li l H2Key Passenger Transportation Results-5101520253035404550

2000

Total Energy consumption
reduction• 55% from BAU

2050 BAU (CM)

• 38% from base yyear
2050 Green (CM)COLOILGASBMS

S/W

Heat

H2-ELE

5101520

GAS

BMS

S/W

Heat

2530

2000Total
Tt l CO2 emission
i ireduction• 75% from BAU• 67% from base year

2050 BAU (CM)

2050 Green (CM)COLOIL

H2ELE

Interesting LCS Activities from last year
Brasil: Flex Cars sales increase – reaching 90% of new sales
 Big increase in ethanol production – 30% increase from 2006 to 2007
 Light vehicles labeling program – starts next month
Other Iniciatives:
Minas Gerais State Oportunities – State inventory – Centro Clima, 2008 (UFRJ) PowerPgenerationi usingi sugar cane bagasseb
 Production of renewable charcoal - Iron and Steel industries.
Rio de Janeiro State:
 Green buildings (3 floor +): neutralization of emissions durign construction
 New fossil fuel power plants – compensation (renewables + eficiency):Coal– 4% of installed power in renewable energy, and 1% in energy eficiency
Fuel oil– 4% of installed power in renewable energy, and 1% in energy eficiency
gas – 2%% of installed power
pin renewable energy,gy, and 1%% in energy
gy eficiency
yNatural gInteresting LCS Activities from last year

Interesting LCS Activities from last year

Activities for this year’s report

Checkk if thereCh
th isi new datad t available
il bl tot updated t model;
d lCheck goals for energy eficiency in the National Energy Plan 2030;
Try to implement new initiatives in Counter Measure scenario;
Assess other important trends and put them in CM scenario.

Discussion Points
 UUncertanties;t ti New technologies penetration: Hybrid or electric cars; solar energy, etc: moreexpensiveptechnologies;g Developing Countries:
How to reduce emissions while services are increasing quickly?