Introduction of
AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
(ESS)
Ms. Maho Miyashita (Takimi) Mizuho Information & Research Institute
Indian Institute of Management
Prof. P.R. Shukla
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Dr. Mikiko Kainuma

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Contents

Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis• Background• Structures & Flows• Operation– Demand Settings (Residential Sector)– Transformation Sector (Electricity, Other)– Analysis

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20072

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundBackGroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

BackgroundJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20073

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundBackGroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Background of development• In scenario developing processes, a toolwith following feature would be useful– Clear assumptions & calculation processes– Easy interpretation of the results– Easy sensitivity analysis– Keep energy balance• Tools for describe future energy balancetable in a spreadsheet: Energy Snapshot
Tool (ESS)Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

4

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundBackGroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis••••Excel format
Based on energy balance table
Step by step approach
The tool can be used for;– Developing and designing future scenarios– “What if” analysis– Check the consistency among the sectors– Analyze the impacts of countermeasures– Communication among stakeholders

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20075

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &&&Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Structure & FlowJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

6

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Final Energy

Final Energy

Services

Services

targetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20077

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Calculation processes

Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisEBTenergybalance
table

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Secondary

Services

Services

1.
1.Obtain
Obtainenergy
energybalancebalancetable
tablefromfromnational
nationalstatistics
statisticsetc.
etc.(Base(BaseYear)Year)

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20078

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

ServicesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Services

2.
2.Set
Set“energy“energyuseuseefficiency”
efficiency”&&“energy“energyservice
servicedemand”
demand”(Base(BaseYear)Year)

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 20079

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

ServicesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Services

3.
3.Assume
Assumechanges
changesofof“energy“energyservice
servicedemand”
demand”ininTargetTargetYear
Year(Scenario)(Scenario)

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200710

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Transformation
efficiency

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Services

Services

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

4.
4.Assume
Assumechanges
changesofof“energy“energyuseuseefficiency”,
efficiency”,“transformation“transformationefficiency”
efficiency”ininTarget
TargetYear
Year(Scenario)(Scenario)

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200711

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Transformation
efficiency

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Services

Services

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

5.
5.Calculate
Calculateprimaryprimaryenergy
energyandandfinal
finalenergy
energyinin
TargetTargetYear
Year

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Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200712

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &&&Flows
Operation
Operation

Calculation processes
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Emission factors

Emission factors

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Transformation
efficiency

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Services

Services

TargetYear

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

6.
6.Calculate
CalculateCO2
CO2emissions
emissionsby
bymultiplying
multiplying“emission“emission
factors”
factors”ofofeacheachenergy
energyAsia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200713

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Contents

Structure of the model

Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Flows
Structure
Flow
Structures &
&&
Flows

<Base year><Target year><Base year><Target year>

Service demandService demand

Electricity demand

Electricity demand

Operation
Operation
Service share

Service share

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency

MixtureMixtureOwn useOwn use

Loss

Loss

Generation byenergy input

Generation byenergy input

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Energyconsumption

Energyconsumption

CO2 emission

IND

RES

CO2 emission

COM TR_P TR_F

Efficiency
Energyconsumption

Energyconsumption

PWR

Energy Balances
CO2 emission factor
CO2 emission tables

Ctl
CO2 emission factor
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Efficiency

EB
EB
EB
EB

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

Factor Analysis（D, E/D, C/E, C’/C）

Factors: Endogenous variables: Exogenous variables

14AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

OperationJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200715

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Fundamental settings (CTL)

Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Unit, Simulation Year, Scenario Name, Emission Factor

Operation
Operation
Operation

Unit

Energy
Mtoe

CO2
MtC

Simulation Year

Base Year
2000

Target Year
2050

Scenario Name

Scenario 1
A

Scenario 2
B

COL

OIL

GAS

BMS

NUC

HYD

S/W

1.05
Unit: MtC / Mtoe

0.8

0.55

0

0

0

0

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Emission Factor

General rules
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

– White cells: User input– Colored cells: Automatically calculated values

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200716

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Enduse sectorJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200717

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Enduse sector (IND, RES, COM, TR_P, TR_F)

Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Residential
Residential

Transportation_P
Transportation_P

Operation
Operation

Commercial
Commercial

Transportation_F
Transportation_F

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Industry
Industry

Residential sector
1 Energy service demand

Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
Others

Unit

2000

Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe

4
81
55
60
5

4-6 Energy consumption / CO2 Emission
2050
CM

REF
A

B

A

4
81
55
60
5

4
81
55
60
5

4
65
55
30
5
0
0
0
0
0
0

Unit
4 Energy
CM/REF
Consumption
B
A
B
4 90% 100%
5 Emission
81 80% 100%
Factor55 100% 100%
60 50% 100%
6 CO2 Emission
5 100% 100%
0
0
0
0
0
REF = Reference case0
CM = Countermeasure case

2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)Mtoe

MtC/Mtoe

MtC

COL
45
53
45
1.05
1.05
1.05
47
56
47

OIL GAS BMS S/W
13
5 213
0
12
38
86
0
13
5 214
0
0.80 0.55 0.00 0.00
0.80 0.55 0.00 0.00
0.80 0.55 0.00 0.00
10
3
0
0
10
21
0
0
10
3
0
0

2 Service Share
Unit
Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
OthersJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

-

COL
0%
23%
14%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

OIL GAS
0%
0%
8%
2%
4%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

2000
BMS S/W Heat
0%
0%
0%
48%
0%
3%
71%
0%
5%
92%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

H2
ELE Total COL0%
0% 100% 100%0% 16% 100% 61%
0%0%
4% 100%7%
0%0% 100%0%0% 100% 100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

OIL GAS0%0%8%2%
6% 50%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

2050 A (CM)BMS S/W Heat
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
3%
30%
0% 10%
92%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

H2
ELE Total COL
0% 100% 100%0%0% 16% 100% 23%
0%4% 100% 14%
0%0% 100%7%
0% 100% 100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

OIL GAS
0
0
8%
2%
4%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2050 B (CBMS S/W
0%
0%
48%
0%
71%
0%
92%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

18

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Enduse sector (IND, RES, COM, TR_P, TR_F)
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Final Energy

SecondaryTargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Energy use efficiency

Services

ServicesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200719

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

0. Classification of service demand• Set classification of energy service demand & its
unit in residential sector• Scenario name, base year and target year set in CTL
sheet will shown in each table

Transformation
Transformation Sector
SectorUnit

AnalysisAnalysis

Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
OthersJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe

2000
12
72
34
2
11

2050
CM

REF
A
12
72
34
2
11

B
12
72
34
2
11

A
12
72
34
2
11
0
0
0
0
0
0

B
12
72
34
2
11
0
0
0
0
0
0

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

CM/REF
A
B
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

20

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

1. Energy Cons. in base year
• Past record of energy use in residential sector• If the appropriate data is not available, usedata of EBT (one sector), or make a guess!!

Transformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Cool
Warm
Hot W ater
Cooking
OthersGeneration
CogenerationJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Total

Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe

COL
0.0
30.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

45

2000
OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
3.0 50.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
1.0 50.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
1.0 113.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

13

5

213

0

6

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

H2
ELE Total
0.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
5.0 101.0
0.0
2.0 69.0
0.0
0.0 119.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
14 29621

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
Sector

2. Energy use eff. in base year
• Set energy efficiency of each energy use– Energy use efficiency: Ratio between the
consumption of energy to service demand– Keep consistency– The value can be relative value (Base Year=1.00)
Unit

AnalysisAnalysis

Cool
W arm
Hot Water
Cooking
Otherstoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toe

COL

OIL

GAS

2000
BMS S/W Heat

0.70
0.80
0.80

0.70
0.80

0.70
0.80
0.50

0.90
0.80
0.45

1.00
0.45

1.00
1.00

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

H2

ELE Total
2.00
3.00
1.00
0.70
1.00
-

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30 April – 11 May, 200722

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Enduse sector (IND, RES, COM, TR_P, TR_F)
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Final Energy

Final Energy

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Energy use efficiency

Services

ServicesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200723

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

3. Service Demand• Service demand in base year
– Service demand (Mtoe) = Final Energy/EE• Assume service demand in target year
• Reference case, Countermeasure caseTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorUnit

AnalysisAnalysis

Cool
W arm
Hot W ater
Cooking
OthersJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe

2000
4
81
55
60
5

2050
CM

REF
A

B

A

4
81
55
60
5

4
81
55
60
5

4
65
55
30
5
0
0
0
0
0
0

CM/REF
B
A
B
4 90% 100%
81 80% 100%
55 100% 100%
60 50% 100%
5 100% 100%
0
0
0
0
0
0

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

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30 April – 11 May, 200724

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Enduse sector (IND, RES, COM, TR_P, TR_F)
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Services

Services

TargetYear

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200725

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

4. Service share in target year
• Set service share to fulfill the service demand– Assume the technology used
– Check “total value” (=100%)

Transformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Unit
Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
Others

-

COL
0%
61%
0%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

OIL GAS0%0%8%2%
6% 50%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

2050 A (CM)BMS S/W Heat
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
3%
30%
0% 10%
92%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

H2
ELE Total
0% 100% 100%0% 16% 100%
0%4% 100%0%0% 100%0% 100% 100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200726

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

5. Energy use eff. in target year
• Set energy efficiency of each energy use in
Target Year
– Keep consistency– The value can be relative value (Base Year=1.00)

Transformation
Transformation Sector
SectorUnit

AnalysisAnalysis

Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
Otherstoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toetoe/toe

COL

OIL

GAS

2050 A (CM)BMS S/W Heat

0.90
0.80
0.80

0.70
0.80

0.70
0.80
0.50

0.90
0.80
0.45

1.00
0.45

1.00
1.00

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

H2

ELE Total
2.00
3.00
1.00
0.70
1.00
-

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200727

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector

6. Energy Cons. in Target year
• Calculated automatically• Additional Input– Generation: PV etc.
– CHP: Fuel cells, Gas engine etc.

Transformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Cool
Warm
Hot Water
Cooking
OthersGeneration
CogenerationJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Total

Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe

COL
0.0
50.6
0.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

53

2050 A (CM)OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
2.4
8.3
0.0
2.4
4.2 35.0 21.0
0.0
5.6
0.0
0.5 57.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

12

38

86

0

8

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

H2
ELE Total
0.0
1.8
1.8
0.0
4.0 75.7
0.0
2.0 67.8
0.0
0.0 60.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
13 21028

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
Ground7. Check the results
Energy Consumption
-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

COL

OIL

GAS

BMS

S/W

Heat

H2

ELE

-

20

Structures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector2000
2050 A (CM)Transformation
Transformation Sector
Sector2050 B (CM)
AnalysisAnalysis40

CO2 Emission
60

80

100

120

2000

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Note:
Note: Before
Before implement
implement
CO2
CO2 analysis,
analysis,assumption
assumption ofof energy
energytransformationtransformation neededneededtoto bebe mademade2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)COL - OIL 50GAS 100BMS 150S/W200Heat250 H2 300ELE 350

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200729

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Transformation SectorJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200730

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation

Transformation Sector
Base
Year

CO2 emission

CO2 emission

Emission factors

Emission factors

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Transformation
efficiency

Transformation
efficiency

Final Energy

Final Energy

Energy use efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Services

Services

TargetYear

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200731

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Electricity Generation (PWR)

Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
Sector• Goal: Primary energy consumed forelectricity generation in target year.
Power generation sector
2050

Transformation
TransformationSector
Sector

2000

Solver

Supply & Demand
A
B

Only DemandA

Only Supply
B

A

No
B

A

B

1. Electricity demand at receiver end

AnalysisAnalysis

Mtoe

98

88

86

88

86

98

98

98

98

12.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

103
6.84%

88
5.31%

86
5.31%

88
5.3%

86
5.3%

98
5.3%

98
5.3%

98
5.3%

98
5.3%

Mtoe

111

93

91

93

91

104

104

104

104

Mtoe
Mtoe

0
100.0%
01
100.0%
1

1
100.0%
10
100.0%
00
100.0%
01
100.0%
1

1
100.0%
10
100.0%
00
100.0%
0

Mtoe

6

4

4

5

5

5

4

6

6

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.4%
0.5%
0.5%
8.0%

2. Difference between demand and supply
Mtoe

3. Electricity supply at receiver end
Electricity supply
Transmission Loss

Mtoe

4. Electricity supply before tranmission

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Electricity supply
Pumped storage (PS)
Ele. demand of PS
Efficiency
Generation of PS
Own useOwn use in plant
Own use rate
COL
GAS
OIL
NUC
HYD
HYD(P)GEOPS

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

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30 April – 11 May, 200732

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Electricity Generation (PWR)

Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows

Pumpedstorage

Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorPrimary
EnergyOwn useAnalysisAnalysis

Transmission
lossesTransformation
lossesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Generation
Generation End
End

Receiver
Receiver End
End

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200733

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisElectricity Generation (PWR)• Data setting for reference year
– Electricity demand at receivers end– Electricity transmission losses– Efficiency of pumped storage (Def: ratio
between consumed energy while pumping and generated
energy)– Own use rate of electricity plant– Electricity supply at generation end– Primary Energy ConsumptionJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200734

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisElectricity Generation (PWR)• Data setting for target year (scenario)– Electricity transmission losses– Efficiencies of pumped storage– Own use rate
– Mixture of energy– Thermal efficiency• Click “Solver”!!

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project– “Electricity supply at generation end” iscalculated automatically so that the electricity
demand of the end-user would be fulfilled– Primary energy supply for electricity generation is
calculated
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30 April – 11 May, 200735

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
TransformationSector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisOther energy transformation (EB_SD)(a) Energy use for CCS(b) Amount of carbon captured(c) Heat supply(d) Feedstock(e) Losses of Coal/Oil/Gas during refining processes
2050 A (CM)
COL
Energy Balances
Power Gnr.
CCS
Heat
Coal/Oil/Gas
HydrogenIndustrial
Residential
Commercial
Trans. Prv.
Trans. Frg.
EnduseTotal
Feedstock in total
Emission Factor (MtC/Mtoe)
CO2 Gnr. (MtC)
CO2 CCS (MtC)

OIL

15

(e)

GAS
0

41

BMS

NUC
0

HYD

92

S/W
8

Heat
1

(a)
2

23
0
0
0
0
23
38

(d)

1.05
40
-16

H2

39
1
1
4
3
48
50
14
0.80
29

12
45
1
1
0
0
47
100

5
0
0
2
9
16
16

92

8

0.55
55
-23

0.00
0

0.00
0

0.00
0

33

0

13
0
8
3
0
0
11
25

(c)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

CO2 Ems. (MtC)

24

28.6

-66
3

-14
0
4
5
3
3
14
0

29
14
18
2
1
64
-0

0.00 (0.00) (0.47) (0.00)
0
-

(b)

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

ELE

0

0

0

-

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

-

-

Total

'90=100

90
3
0
2
11
140
27
28
11
17
223
330

124
-39
0
0
85

43.6

30.0

36

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysisAnalysisJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200737

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Back
Back Ground
GroundStructures
Structures && Flows
Flows
Operation
Operation
EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorTransformation
Transformation Sector
SectorAnalysisAnalysis

Factor analysis (Factors)• Extended Kaya Identity
E C′ CC = D× × ×
D E C′ΔC ΔD Δ( E / D) Δ(C ′ / E ) Δ(C / C ′)=++++ Cross termCD
( E / D)(C ′ / E )(C / C ′)C:
C: CO2CO2 emission
emissionD:
D: Driving
Driving forces
forces (service(service demand)
demand)E:
E: Energy
Energy Consumption
Consumption
C’:
C’: CO
CO22 emission
emission without
without measures
measures inin transformationtransformation sector
sectorJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

E/D:
E/D: Energy
Energy Intensity
Intensity
C’/E:
C’/E: CO
CO22 intensity
intensity inin end-use
end-use sector
sectorC/C’:
C/C’: CO
CO22 intensity
intensity inin transformationtransformation sector
sectorAsia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200738

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

EnduseEnduse Sector
SectorΔC ΔD Δ( E / D) Δ(C ′ / E ) Δ(C / C ′)=++++ Cross termCD
( E / D)(C ′ / E )(C / C ′)D

Transformation
Transformation Sector
Sector10%

AnalysisAnalysis

0%

1% 1%
-1%

-10%
vs 2000's

-20%
-30%

Total

Operation
Operation• Kaya Identity

C'/C

Structures
Structures && Flows
Flows

C/E

Back
Back Ground
GroundFactor analysis (Factors)

E/D

Contents

-17%

-12%

-26%
-34%-36%

-40%
-50%

-51%

-60%
-70%

-73%

-80%
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

2050 A

2050 B

Factors

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200739

Application of AIM/Energy
Snapshot Tool to Japan- Japan Low Carbon Society Scenario -Ms. Maho MIYASHITA (TAKIMI) Mizuho Information & Research Institute
Indian Institute of Management
Prof. P.R. Shukla
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Dr. Mikiko KAINUMAThe United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Contents

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

• Why do we need Low Carbon Society?
• Overview of Japan LCS project• Approach to develop Japan LCS scenario– Visions of 2050
– Narrative description of scenarios– Quantification of scenarios• 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200741

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Why do we need Low Carbon Society?

Carbon
Why
do
we
need
Low
CarbonWhydo
doweweneedneedLow
Low
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Society?

5.0

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

BaU
4.0

3.0

Calculated by
AIM model

650 ppm
550 ppm
500 ppm

2.0

475ppm
1.0

0.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Temperature raise
気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)(above the pre-industrial
level)

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject

年
Year

Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy]
Hijioka (NIES)The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200742

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Why do we need Low Carbon Society?

Carbon
Why
do
we
need
Low
CarbonWhydo
doweweneedneedLow
Low
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Society?

25

Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject

20

BaU

15

650 ppm
10550 ppm
500 ppm

5475 ppmJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

年
Year

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

0

Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy]
Hijioka (NIES)The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200743

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Why do we need Low Carbon Society?

Carbon
Why
do
we
need
Low
CarbonWhydo
doweweneedneedLow
Low
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 20502050

To control temperature raise below 2oC(EU target), Global GHG emissions
should be reduced by 50% in 2050

Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japanese reduction target in 2050 shouldbe 60-80%
Japan Low-Carbon Society ProjectJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200744

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Overview of Japan LCS project

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

Overviewofof JapanLCS
LCS
Overview
Overview of Japan
Japan LCS projectproject
project

FY2004-2006 (PhaseI),2007-2008 (Phase II)
Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ

Approach
LCS
Approach to
todevelop
develop Japan
JapanLCS
scenario
scenario

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050

Techno-Socio Innovation Study
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios

Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized
services

Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenariosJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Junichi Fujino

IT-society

Transportation
system

EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechangeGHG reduction target

2050

Intervention
scenario

2020（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year2010

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation
systemAdvanced logistics

Energy saving Tech. innovationBaU scenario

2000

Development of socioeconomic scenarios,
evaluating countermeasures with socialeconomic-technology
models

GHG emission

Urban structure

1990

70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Eco awareness
Effective
communication
Dematerializa
tion

Advisory board：
advice to project
Decopling
Eco modernization
High value industry

Industrial structure

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid
5
3
1
-1

EquitySuitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

5 teams
60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200745

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Approach to develop Japan LCS scenario

Contents
Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Technology development,socio-economic change
projected by historicallytrend

Reference
futureworld

Forecasting
Mitigation
Technology
development

Required
3. We need
Policy“Trend Breaks”
intervention and
Investment
to realize visions

Checking
year(2025)

Checking
year(2015)

Release of
AIM result

2000

Back-casting

Long-term target year

requiredintervention policy
and measures

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

1.Target may
be tough

2020

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Required intervention

Approach
Approach
todevelop
developJapan
Japan
LCS
LCS
Approach totodevelopJapan
scenario
LCS
scenario
scenario

Environmental pressure

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject

2. We need
“Visions”

Normative
target world

50% reductions
2050 In the world
Junichi Fujino

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200746

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Visions of 2050

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visionsof
2050
Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios

Vision A “Doraemon”

Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Akemi Imagawa
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200747

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Visions of 2050

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visionsof
2050
Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F.
Fujio. The series is about arobotic cat named Doraemon,
who travels back in time fromthe 22nd century. He has apocket, which connects to thefourth dimension and acts likea wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005 World
Expo. Satsuki and Mei aredaughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived
an old house in rural Japan,
near which many curious andmagical creatures inhabited.

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
description
Narrativeof
Narrative description
description
ofof
scenarios
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Narrative description of scenarios
Scenario A
Technical progresses in the industrial sectors are considerably high because ofvigorous R&D investments by the government and business sectors. The economic
activities as a whole are so dynamic that average annual per capita GDP growth rate is
kept at the level of 2%. The other reasons for such high economic growth are high rates
of consumption in both business and household sectors.
The employment system has been drastically changed from that in 2000 and equal
opportunities for the employment have been achieved. Since workers are employedbased on their abilities or talents regardless of their sex, nationality and age, themotivation of the worker is quite high in general.
As many women work outside, the average time spent for housekeeping has
decreased. Most of the household works are replaced by housekeeping robots orservices provided by private companies. Instead, the time used for personal careerdevelopment has increased.
The new technologies, products, services are positively accepted in the society.
Therefore, purchasing power of the consumer is strong and upgrade cycles of thecommodities are short.
Household size becomes smaller and the number of single-member households has
increased. Multi-dwellings are preferred over detached houses, and the urban lifestyleis more popular than the lifestyle of countryside.

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
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Why
Why dodo we
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Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

Narrative description of scenarios
Scenario B

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
description
Narrativeof
Narrative description
description
ofof
scenarios
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Although average annual growth rate of per capita GDP is approximately 1%,
people can receive adequate social services no matter where they live. Volunteer
works or community based mutual aid activities are the main provider of theservices. Since the levels of medical and educational service in the countryside havedrastically improved, continuous migration of population from city to countrysidehas been observed.
The number of family who own detached dwellings has increased. The trend is
especially prominent in the countryside. The size of the houses and the floor area
per houses has also increased with the increasing share of detached houses.
The ways people work have also changed. The practice that husbands workoutside and wives work at home is not common anymore. In order to avoid theexcessive work of the partner, the couples help each other and secure the income
according to their life plan. Housework is shared mainly among family members,
but free housekeeping services provided by local community or social activity
organizations are also available. As a result of the changes in lifestyle, the timespent within family has increased. The time spent on hobby, sports, culturalactivities, volunteer activities, agricultural works, and social activities has also
increased.
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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Quantification of scenarios

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
QuantificationofQuantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Unit
Population
Household
Average number of
person per household
GDP
Share of production
Primary
SecondaryTeritary

Mil.
Mil.

Tril. JPY
%
%
%

2000

2050

model

127
47

A
94
43

74%
91%

100
42

79%
89% Population and

2.7

2.2

81%

2.4

89%

520

1009

194%

668

128%

1.7%
27.5%
70.8%

B

1.1%
18.3%
80.5%

2.3%
21.8%
75.9%

Household modelInter-sector andMacro Economic
Model

Office floor space

Mil. m2

1,654

1,934

117%

1,718

Travel passenger volume
Private car
Public transport
Walk/bicycle
Freight transport volume
Industrial production
Steel production
Etylen production
Cement production
Paper production

bill. p-km%%%
bill. t-km

1,399
53.6%
38.9%
7.5%
580

948
40.2%
52.1%
7.7%
465

68%

80%

1,010
41.6%
50.6%
7.8%
500

Building
Dynamics Model,
104% Inter-sector andMacro Economic
Model
72% Transportation
demand model,Inter-sector andMacro Economic
86% Model

107
8
82
32

74
4
56
17

69%
50%
68%
53%

63
3
45
28

59% Inter-sector and
38% Macro Economic
55% Model
88%

Mil. tMil. tMil. tMil. tThe United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
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Quantification of scenarios

Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

PV on roof

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject

3-4kW

Approach
LCS
Approach to
todevelop
develop Japan
JapanLCS
scenario
scenario

LED light
66% reduction oflighting demand

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050

Heat insulation
house
60% reduction ofheat demand

Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
QuantificationofQuantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Super highefficiency airconditioner
Fuel cellcogeneration

COP=8
for cooling
Environment
Education
Eco-life Navigation
10-20% reductionJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

HEMS (HomeEnergyManagement
System)
10-20% reduction

Stand-by energy
reduction
33% reduction
Efficient use
New energy

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 2007

Hot water supply
by heat pump or
solar heating
COP=5 for warming
Infrastructure
Eco-lifestyle52

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

Contents
Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

Scenario A :2050

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions［ Society ］
Activity

Approach
LCS
Approach to
todevelop
develop Japan
JapanLCS
scenario
scenario

Activity
26

SD
29

EE
79

Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios［ Industrial ］
Energy Intensity Imp.

• Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor etc.

Carbon Intensity Imp.

• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas

30
5
10

［ Residential and commercial ］
Reduction of service
demands

CI
27

Energy Intensity Imp.
13

Carbon Intensity Imp.

• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system• Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient
lighting system• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof

［ Transportation ］
CI
77

77

Reduction of service
demands

Energy Intensity Imp.
Carbon Intensity Imp.
CCS
39

CO2 emission in
2050

2000年CO2排出量
CO2 emisisionin 20002000年CO2排出量
CO2 emission
in 1990

70% reduction

30

Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenariosJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

919

Visions
Visions ofof 20502050

70%
CO2emission
emissionreduction
reduction
70%by
70% CO2
CO2emission
reduction
by
2050
by
2050
2050

20

• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of households

39• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel cellbattery vehicles［Energy transformation］• Nuclear energy
Carbon Intensity Imp.
CCS

（MtC）

• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function• Public transportation system• Effective use of electricity in night time with storage• Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demands

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

Contents
Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?

Scenario B :2050

Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Activity
4

Approach
LCS
Approach to
todevelop
develop Japan
JapanLCS
scenario
scenario

ActivitySD
27

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050

9
18
18

EE
52

Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios

70% reduction

2000年CO2排出量
2000年COCO2 emission
in 20002000年CO
2排出量
2排出量

2000年CO2排出量
CO2 emission
in 1990

Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios［ Industrial ］
Energy Intensity Imp.

• Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor etc.

Carbon Intensity Imp.

• Increase of Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas /biomass［ Residential and commercial ］
Reduction of service • High insulation dwelling and building
demands• Eco-life navigation system

9
CI
74

22

Energy Intensity Imp.
Carbon Intensity Imp.

25

CI
74

• Reduction of final demand by material saturation• Reduction of raw material production• Decrease of population and number of households

20
30

70%
CO2emission
emissionreduction
reduction
70%by
70% CO2
CO2emission
reduction
by
2050
by
2050
2050

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions［ Society ］［ Transportation ］
Reduction of service
demands74• Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient
lighting system• Photovoltaic on the roof
• Expanding biomass energy use in home
• Diffusion of solar water heating• Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive land use• Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders (sidewalk,bikeway, cycle parking)Energy Intensity Imp.
• Biomass-hybrid engine vehicle

Carbon Intensity Imp.

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

CO2 emission
in 2050［Energy transformation ］
Carbon Intensity Imp.

（MtC）

• Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle andbiomass generation

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demands

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Why
Why dodo we
we needneed Low
Low Carbon
CarbonSociety?
Society?
Overview
Overview ofof JapanJapan LCSLCS projectproject
Approach
JapanLCSLCSApproach to
todevelop
develop Japan
scenario
scenario

Visions
Visions ofof 2050
2050
Narrative
Narrative description
description ofof
scenarios
scenarios
Quantification
Quantificationofof scenarios
scenarios
70%
70% CO2
CO2 emission
emission reduction
reduction by
by
2050
2050

Please seemore details !!!
at

http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
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Application of
AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool to
Asian Countries
Indian Institute of Management
Prof. P.R. Shukla
China Energy Research InstituteDr. Jiang Kejun
Asian Institute of Technology
Prof. Ram Shrestha
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Dr. Mikiko Kainuma
Ms. Maho Miyashita (Takimi) Mizuho Information & Research Institute

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Application
Application
toIndia
India
Application toto
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application to India- Introduction of Analysis of Residential
Sector -Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Scenario of 2050

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

Scenario A

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

A large part still resides in villages though demographic indicators havechanged but still a long improvement to go. The economy is dependent
largely on the manufacturing sector.

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020

Scenario B
Policy makers are aspiring for characterized by high growth rates,
rapidly improving demographic indicators, driven by economic reforms
and high levels of social spending. Higher penetration of technologies
takes place, aided by close cooperation with the developed countries inthe east and west. Higher incomes also bring about enhanced
environmental consciousness amongst people.

Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Scenario of 2050

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050
1800

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

P o p l a ti o n (M i ll i

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

1600

A

1400

B

1200
1000
800
600
400

Application
Application toto China
China

200
0

Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Scenario A : UN Population Projections
Scenario B : Own projections for a highly urbanized IndiaJapan
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Society 2050

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Scenario of 2050

Contents
Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

2 400
2 100

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050

G D P 2 0 0 5 =1

1 800

2 0 0 5 -2 0 5 0
S c e n a rio A , C A G R - 5 .8 %S c e n a rio B , C A G R - 7 .0 %

B

1 500

1 200

A

900

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results
600

Application
Application toto China
China

300
0

Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

20 00

20 05

2010

2 015

2020

202 5

203 0

2035

20 40

2045

20 50

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020

Scenario A : Closer to GDP estimates in the WEO, 2006 of IEA
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Scenario B : Assumes 8% CAGR till 2032 as per Planning Commission EstimatesJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Scenario of 2050

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

Assumption of Service Demand

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

2000=1Service

Application
Application toto Thailand
Thailand

2050 A

2050 B

Cooling (AC + Cooler)

21.6

12.9

Cooking (Stove)

1.5

1.6

Cooking (Elect)

3.5

3.0

Lighting

3.4

3.1

Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

ICT

33.3

16.7

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020

Appliance

42.3

19.2

Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China

Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Scenario of 2050

Contents
Application
Application toto India
India

Assumption of Energy Efficiency

Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Service
Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

Oil

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Gas

Bmass

Cool
Cooking (Stove)

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

2000

2050
S/W

Elect

Oil

Gas

Bmass

S/W

2.90
0.60

0.60

0.10

0.50

Elect
4.00

0.65

0.65

0.50

0.50

0.70

Cooking (Elect)

1.00

1.11

Lighting

1.00

1.50

Refrigerator

1.00

1.50

ICT

1.00

2.00

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool

Simulation Results

Contents
Application
Application toto India
India

500%

Application
Application toto Thailand
Thailand400%

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

300%

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020

vs 2000's

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

408%
226%

200%

132%
90%

100%

31% 8%

0%
-100%
-200%

-113%
-186%

-300%
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

C'/C

C/E

E/D

D

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Total

Factor Analysis

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

-194%
-324%

-400%
2050 A

2050 BJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents
Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
toThailandApplicationto
toThailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application to Thailand- Introduction of Analysis ofTransportation Sector -Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Scenario of 2050

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenarioof2050
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Scenario A
This scenario is characterized by a Thai economy concentrated on
industries that have a comparative advantage in the world market. In this
scenario, Thailand follows closely the national development plans andpolicies. The economic growth is moderate at 5% per year during 20002030 and then slows down to 4% per year for the remaining twenty
years of the time period considered.
Scenario B

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

This scenario is characterized by Thailand being more and more
integrated into global markets. Market forces are predicted to lead tohigh economic growth and there would be a faster transition towards
industry and commerce based economy. The GDP is assumed toincrease by 6% per year during the first thirty years (2000-2030) and by
5% per year in the remaining twenty years (2030-2050) reflecting thepossible slowdown of the economic growthJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Scenario of 2050

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
Thailand• Energy efficiency projection:• Efficiency of oil, gas and electricity based
vehicles doubles by 2050

Scenarioof2050
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results• Fuel mix projection• In road transport, by 2050 hydrogen
substitutes 20% of the oil and CNG
substitutes 25% of the oil. In rail transport,
electricity substitutes 50% of the oil by
2050.

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Simulation Results

Application
Application toto India
India

Energy Consumption

Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results-

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

2000

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

2050 A (CM)Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

2050 B (CM)Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

OIL

GAS

H2

ELE

Japan
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Society 2050

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AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
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Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application to China- Introduction of Analysis of Residential
Sector in Shenyang City -Application
Application
toChina
China
Application toto
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

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Overview of Shenyang city

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 2050
2050

Shenyang city

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China
OverviewofShenyangcity
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

Population：7.2 million
Area：12,980 km2
Average Temperature ：8.3℃
Latitude：42 degrees north latitude
Disposable Income：16,393 yuan (the 20th among 600 cities)
Energy Consumption/10 thousand yuan ：1.1toc/10 thousand yuan
(80% of country average)
The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200769

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Scenario of 2020

Application
Application toto India
India

The method used for calculation

Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
Thailand

Population

Estimation from rate of population
increase

1.13

Household

Estimation from population and size ofhousehold

1.22

GDP

Based on th 11th 5 year plan

4.01

floor

Estimation from GDP/Capita

2.05

Diffusion RateofDistrict
Heating System

Same as value of 2004 (80%)

1.51

Diffusion Rateof Appliances

Estimation from past trend (19852004)

1.67

Energyefficiency

15% increase (BaU1)
30% increase (BaU2)Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Estimated Value(2000=1)

Averagespace

1.15(BaU1)
1.3(BaU2)

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200770

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Scenario of 2020

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050

The method used for calculation

Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China

Estimated Value(2000=1)

Warming

Average floor space＊Energy service demand / floor space

2.05＊1

Hot water

Number of households＊Intensity

1.22＊1

Cooking

Number of households＊Intensity

1.22＊1

Lighting/Appli
ances

Number of households＊Diffusion rate of appliances

1.22＊1.67

Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200771

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Scenario of 2020

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

BaU1

BaU2

CM1

CM2

Energyefficiency: 15% increase

Energyefficiency: 30% increase

BaU1+Introduction ofenergy saving
house (50％)

BaU1+Introduction ofheat pump(50％)

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
Simulation
Simulation Results
ResultsJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200772

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool
Contents

Simulation results

Application
Application toto India
India
Scenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Energy consumption in 2020 (Mtoe)

Application
Application toto Thailand
ThailandScenario
Scenario ofof 20502050
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Application
Application toto China
China
Overview
Overview ofof Shenyang
Shenyangcity
city

Scenario
Scenario ofof 2020
2020
results
Simulation
Simulation Results
Results

Warming Hot water Cooking

Lighting
Appliances

Total

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
Japan Low-Carbon Society Project

The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
30 April – 11 May, 200773