Building Dynamic Model : BDM
Application to Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project

Maho MIYASHITA of MHIR
2006.2.20
The 11th AIM International Workshop

1. Background• Number and types of dwelling units have beenchanging along with transition of population
composition, economic growth and life style change.
• Energy consumption in households especially for spaceheating and space cooling depends on dwelling types,
insulation level and inhabited area.
• It’s necessity to introduce countermeasures based ona long-term perspective because of its long lifetime.

2. Input/Output of BDMPopulation Dynamic Model(1) Number of household [Province, Year]Input(2) Number of dwelling units in the base year

[Province, Type, Construction material, Insulation level, Year of construction, Year](3) Empty rate [Province, Type, Construction material](4) Residual rate [Type, Construction material, Year of construction, Year](5) Distribution of types of dwellings for new-built dwellings [Type, Year](6) Distribution of construction materials for new-built dwellings[Construction material, Year](7) Distribution of insulation level for new-built dwellings [Insulation level, Year]

OutputBuilding Dynamic Model
Number of dwelling units[Province, Type, Construction material, Insulation level,
Year of construction, Year]

Energy Service
Demand Model
Stock/flow Model2. Input/Output of BDM
Source(2) Number of dwelling units inthe base year

Statistics of MLIT, Architectural Institute ofJapan(3) Empty rate

Base year: Calculation from Statistics of MLIT
Future: Value of the base year (fixed)(4) Residual rate

Base year: Estimation from Statistics of MLIT
Future: Value of the base year (fixed)(5) Distribution of types ofdwellings for new-built dwellings

Base year: Statistics of MLIT
Future: Scenario(6) Distribution of construction
materials for new-built dwellings

Base year: Statistics of MLIT
Future: Value of the base year (fixed)(7) Distribution of insulation levelfor new-built dwellings

Base year: Data of the government housing loan
corporation
Future: Scenario

MLIT: Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport3. Logic of BDM
Number ofnew housingunits(year T)
[Province、Type, Construction
Insulation level]

Construction[Province, Type]Type[Province]

Empty rate
Number ofNew-built dwellings(year T)
[Province]

Insulation level[Province, Type]

Number ofdwelling units(year T)
[Province、Type, Construction
Insulation level]

Number ofhouseholds[Province]

Residual ratio[Type, Construction,Year of construction]
Residual number ofdwelling units(year T)
[Province,Type, Construction,Insulation level]Type (2)Detached houses, Apartment houses
Construction material (2)Wooden building, Non wooden construction
Insulation level(4)Conventional, Former standard, New standard, Next-generation standard

Number ofdwelling units(year T-1)
[Province,Type, Construction,
Insulation level]4. Output of BDM
6050302010Statistics ←→ Estimated figures

Dwellings

Households (from PDM)

Number of dwelling units

2048

2043

2038

2033

2028

2023

2018

2013

2008

2003

1998

1993

1988

1983

1978

1973

1968

1963

0
1958

Million

40

60

50

50

40

40

2048

2043

2038

2033

2028

2023

2003

2048

2043

2038

2033

0

2028

0
2023

10

2018

10

2013

20

2008

20

2018

30

2013

30

2008

Million60

2003

Million

4. Output of BDM

Wooden detached houses

Non wooden detached houses

without insulation

Standard of 1980

Wooden apartment houses

Non wooden apartment houses

Standard of 1992

Standard of 1999

Estimated number of dwellingunits (by construction)

Estimated number of dwellingunits (by Insulation level)

5. Future work
• Considering relationship between number of newbuilt dwellings and macro-economic data
• Investigation on relationship between household
data and dwelling data
• Addition of flow for estimating private housing
consumption

Thank you!

1. Background
50
45
40
35

Million

30
25
20
15
10
5Wooden detached houses
Wooden apartment houses
Total dwellings (1958,1963)

2003

1998

1993

1988

1983

1978

1973

1968

1963

1958

0

Non wooden detached houses
Non wooden apartment houses

Number of occupied dwelling units

2. Input/Output of BDM
100%Wooden detached houses

90%

Non wooden detachedhousesWooden apartment
housesNon wooden apartment
houses

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Estimated residual rate