Remember SHIMOKOBE: A National Land Concept for Population Shrinking JapanINAYOSHI, Akira
Niigata University
Japanese railway celebrated its 150 anniversary with great fanfare in autumn 2022. But in themeanwhile, it faces the harsh reality that train usage has been dropping, especially in rural areas. Threemonths before the celebration, a government panel proposed restructuring these loss-making routes,
approximately 20 % of all lines in Japan. The main reason for the predicament is the shrinking
population. Measures to address this problem are necessary, but no matter what steps are taken,
dramatic improvements can no longer be expected. Japan’s national land initiative must bereconsidered in light of the future population decline.
One solution is to populate port cities and reorganise administrative districts around them. Most
rails, the government panel implied to be abolished, run in mountainous regions. This is not
surprising, given that about 80% of the Japanese live in areas below 100 meters of altitude. The
networks needed to sustain people’s livelihoods, including highways, power transmission wires andgas pipelines, should be built inland from these port cities because, as an island nation, Japan relies
on sea transport for 99% of its imports. These networks are already in place, and, as with railways,
the question is how they should be maintained and managed. Priority should be given to networks
leading directly to ports.
The main advantage of attracting people to live in port cities is the reduction in logistics costs, bothfinancial and environmental. About 50% of Japan’s domestic transport relies on truck transport,
which has two challenges: labour shortages and environmental problems. In the long term, a labour
shortage is inevitable. Even in a short time, due to stricter labour legislation scheduled for 2024,
Japanese truck logistics is expected to face a severe driver shortage and cost increase. On the other
hand, high hopes are pinned on maritime transport in the face of growing international pressure to
become carbon neutral because the CO2 emissions of marine vehicles are about only one-fifth of
those of truck transport. If people congregate in coastal areas, transport costs would be furtherreduced.
One risk of settlement in port cities is in terms of disaster prevention. Floods are the most frequentdisaster in Japan. Although many river improvements have already been completed, recent climatechange has resulted in more frequent and unexpected floods. Furthermore, river maintenance isessential for agricultural production, too. If no one managed mountains, flooding would be even

more frequent. Still, at the mouth of large rivers are large ports. Our focus should be on the river
basins comprised of hinterlands from the docks to conserve and utilise the country's land.
It is needed to transform from a national land concept centred on railways, with all lines connecting
to Tokyo, to a decentralised national land concept with local rivers and ports at its core. This is not a
far-fetched proposition. Since the 1960s, the Japanese government has repeatedly pushed for thedecentralisation of the population.
We should remember SHIMOKOBE Atsushi, one of post-war Japan's leading bureaucrats. In 1977,
when he was in the National Land Agency, SHIMOKOBE claimed to avoid the concentration ofpeople in Tokyo by decentralising settlement zones around the country, with catchment areas as theunit. Before that, the Japanese government attempted to decentralise by connecting major cities, suchas Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Fukuoka, by the Shinkansen bullet train. The result, however, was topromote an engagement in Tokyo. The ease of movement led to an increasing concentration ofpeople in a single big city. In contrast, SHIMOKOBE tried to achieve the same goal by developing
inland and estuarine towns into a single economic zone.
Yet his attempts also didn’t go well. The primary reason was that the administrative areas heenvisaged were too fragmented. This great intellectual advocated the establishment of about 300
municipalities all over the country. This was based on his realisation that Japan had approximately
300 clans during the Edo period when each load managed its water system. But these administrative
areas are too small to maintain a sustainable humanosphere in modern society. As of 2022, 160 ports
are designated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism as Important Ports.
Excluding those ports with overlapping areas, it would be reasonable to define approximately 100
ports and their rear areas as one municipality area.
To create sustainable communities, matching administrative and economic zones is crucial. An
autonomous economic zone centred on a port would make it possible to maintain national land andlocal railways despite population decline.