TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for February 2024)

The domestic economy has deteriorated
for the second consecutive month～ While stock prices have reached all-time highs,
the increase in cost-saving behavior has put downward pressure
on personal consumption-related sectors.～(Companies researched: 27,443; Valid responses: 11,267; Response rate: 41.1%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp< Trend in February 2024: Slight deterioration >By industry: 6 industries and 32 business categories have deteriorated,with factors such as reduced buying behavior and stagnation in themanufacturing sector acting as negative factors.

The economic diffusion index (DI) in February 2024 was 43.9, down
0.3 points from the previous month, marking a second consecutive
month of deterioration.
The domestic economy has experienced a slight decline, despite thepositive impact of the stock market and other financial markets. Factors
such as the growing trend of cost-saving behavior among consumers andthe production and shipment stoppage in the automotive industry havecontributed to this deterioration.

By scale: All scales have seen a slight deterioration for the second
consecutive month.
By region: Out of the 10 regions, 7 have deteriorated, with the ongoing
impact of a mild winter and production stoppages.
55< Future outlook: Expected to recover gradually after summer >50

Looking ahead, the economy is expected to face downward pressure
from concentrated negative factors, but it is anticipated to gradually
recover, mainly driven by an increase in personal consumption resulting
from wage hikes and other factors, starting from the summer.

45

43.9 44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

42.1

40

44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9

43.7 43.4 43.8 44.5 44.3 44.5

After 3 months
After 1 month

44.7 44.8 44.9 45.1 45.2

After 6 months

45.3

After 1 year

35（Prediction→）

300

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
yy20232024
2025
Projected future DI
42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9 43.7 43.4 43.8 44.5 44.3 44.5 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.1 45.2 45.3
Change from February.2024-0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4*:
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation
model.
Upper
45.4
45.3 45.9 46.7 46.6 46.9 47.2 47.4 47.5 47.8 47.9 48.0
Lower
42.0 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.3 42.4 42.5 42.6
Feb

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDMar

AprMayJun

TDB Trends Research February 20241

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theFeb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24

PreviousMonthTotal

42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9

▲ 0.3

Large Firms

44.2 46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0 47.8 47.9 48.4 48.1 47.9 47.7

▲ 0.2

Small to Medium-sized Firms

41.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3 43.8 44.1 44.2 44.3 43.6 43.2

▲ 0.4

Micro Firms

40.9 42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5 43.0 43.4 43.1 43.3 42.6 42.4

▲ 0.2

Ratio to theFeb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

38.9 41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0 42.1 43.0 40.1 40.5 40.3 41.2

Finance43.3 44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8 46.8 47.3 48.0 47.0 47.7 47.7

0.0Construction

43.7 45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4 47.1 47.5 47.8 47.2 47.7 47.5

▲ 0.2

Real Estate

46.3 47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6 48.5 48.7 47.9 47.5 48.1 48.3

0.2

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed37.0 41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5 42.6 43.4 44.0 44.6 43.6 43.4

▲ 0.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

39.0 38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6 43.0 41.5 40.8 40.1 37.9 37.7

▲ 0.2

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.6 37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2 39.0 40.3 41.5 40.3 39.9 38.1

▲ 1.8

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

36.6 38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1 36.9 37.7 37.2 38.5 37.3 35.7

▲ 1.6

Publishing,Printing

31.6 34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9 32.3 32.5 33.1 34.2 32.4 34.6

2.2

Chemical39.2 40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.4 42.7 42.2 42.6 39.9

▲ 2.7

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

41.0 41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.8 41.5 41.9 42.0 39.7 38.3

▲ 1.4

General Machinery

43.7 43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8 41.2 40.7 40.5 40.6 39.3 40.6

1.3

Electrical Machinery

43.2 42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8 42.4 42.3 43.0 42.5 43.6 42.5▲ 1.1

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

39.6 41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2 48.3 46.9 47.2 44.7 41.6 39.3

▲ 2.3

Medical Instruments and Equipment

49.0 46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9 44.2 42.9 43.4 44.3 43.9 43.3

▲ 0.6

Other

36.1 40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3 40.5 39.4 40.7 39.9 41.9 44.7

2.8

40.0 41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2 40.8 41.1 41.6 41.5 40.4 39.8

▲ 0.6

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

0.9

Precision Machinery,

TotalFood,BEWerages

38.3 42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1 45.8 43.3 44.5 45.7 43.1 43.7

0.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

35.9 38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.1 36.1 36.0 36.3 36.9 36.8

▲ 0.1

37.2 38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0 38.1 38.0 38.3 38.9 38.0 37.8

▲ 0.2

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

35.6 37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6 38.5 38.4 40.1 40.7 39.6 38.2

▲ 1.4

Chemical41.7 43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1 44.5 44.9 45.1 45.4 44.4 42.2▲ 2.2

Recycled Resources

43.2 41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9 43.9 45.2 42.4 43.8 42.9 41.7

▲ 1.2

Mining Products

37.1 37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7 36.7 37.0 38.1 38.2 37.3 34.9

▲ 2.4

Machinery,Equipment

43.3 45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.8 43.9 44.1 44.7 43.7 43.4

▲ 0.3

Other

40.9 42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7 41.7 43.1 43.2 42.9 42.0 41.1

▲ 0.9

40.1 41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3 41.9 41.7 42.1 42.7 41.6 40.9

▲ 0.7

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research February 2024

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theFeb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24

PreviousMonth

RetailFood,BEWerages

40.6 42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8 46.5 45.5 44.9 46.4 45.5 43.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

35.7 39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2 36.6 42.7 39.3 40.0 36.3 40.2

3.9Drugs,Sundries

38.5 42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6 42.5 43.8 44.7 46.1 45.8 45.4

▲ 0.4Furniture33.3 39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2 36.3 27.2 32.4 32.7 34.0 32.1

▲ 1.9

Information Machinery and Equipment

37.5 40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2 42.7 42.5 44.0 42.7 41.8 42.3

0.5

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

38.7 40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0 41.7 42.4 40.2 39.7 42.4 41.2

▲ 1.2

Special Merchandise

35.3 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7 39.1 39.4 38.1 38.3 37.8 37.7

▲ 0.1

Various Merchandise

41.0 43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5 45.9 45.3 44.3 44.1 42.7 40.9

▲ 1.8

Other

44.8 41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2 47.6 46.2 47.2 51.3 40.3 44.0

3.7

37.7 40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.9 41.2 41.5 40.8 40.6

▲ 0.2

Electrical Household Appliances,

TotalTransportation,Warehousing

Service▲ 1.7

38.0 41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3 42.8 44.1 43.8 44.5 43.5 41.9

▲ 1.6Restaurants

42.4 49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2 51.8 47.4 49.4 54.0 50.3 48.0

▲ 2.3

Postal,Telecommunications

44.4 52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8 57.4 59.5 57.1 54.2 56.1 51.9

▲ 4.2

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

32.1 39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5 46.3 44.1 50.0 42.7 41.7 43.6

1.9

Leasing,Rentals

47.4 48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0 49.2 52.5 52.9 51.6 50.3 50.5

0.2

Lodging, Hotels

48.0 59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5 57.6 59.7 64.3 56.9 51.3 55.3

4.0

Recreation

44.1 50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8 46.2 46.3 44.8 47.9 46.3 46.3

0.0

Broadcasting

41.1 42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1 45.6 42.6 45.6 43.3 44.1 47.1

3.0

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

42.6 45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4 47.8 46.8 49.0 46.9 47.3 46.7

▲ 0.6

Advertising

41.4 43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4 45.2 45.6 45.1 46.2 47.0

0.8

Information

53.8 55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4 55.5 56.0 55.4 56.3 56.1 55.7

▲ 0.4

Labor Dispatching

47.9 47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9 48.9 50.9 52.3 50.0 48.8 50.6

1.8Special Services

49.2 50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.2 52.0 51.1 50.3 50.5 51.4

0.9

Medical,Welfare,Public Health41.5 42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4 42.4 43.6 41.8 43.2 44.4 43.2

▲ 1.2

Education

41.9 44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8 46.4 45.6 42.6 44.4 43.7 43.1

▲ 0.6

Other44.3 46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9 47.2 47.6 47.2 48.1 47.5 48.5

1.0Total

Other

47.4 50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8 50.4 50.8 50.8 50.9 50.2 50.4

0.2

37.0 38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8 39.2 40.1 38.2 42.8 41.3 41.2

▲ 0.1

Ratio to theFeb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24

PreviousMonthHokkaido

40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8 43.6 43.7 43.3 43.3 41.6 41.8

0.2

Tohoku37.2 41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.2 38.8

▲ 1.40.8

kitakanto

41.4 42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1 42.9 43.0 42.6 43.0 40.9 41.7

minamikanto

43.9 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6 46.4 46.3 46.7 46.6 46.5 46.6

0.1

Hokuriku

41.2 42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 42.5 42.1 42.3 42.5 40.0 39.8

▲ 0.2

Tokai

41.1 42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4 43.6 44.4 45.1 44.8 44.4 43.1

▲ 1.3

Kinki

41.8 43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.6 43.6 43.2

▲ 0.4Chugoku

41.8 44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3 44.1 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.3 43.2

▲ 1.1

Shikoku38.6 40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8 41.2 41.4 41.3 42.5 42.2 41.0

▲ 1.2

Kyushu44.8 46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3 47.7 48.6 48.7 49.0 48.3 48.1

▲ 0.2

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research February 2024

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 27,443; Valid
responses: 11,267; Response rate: 41.1%)
1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikantoHokuriku

511
774
916
3,313
586

Kyushu

1,207
1,876
756
371
957

Total

11,267

TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

102

Food,Beverages

Finance173

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

85

Drugs,Sundries

58

Furniture

26

Construction

1,699

Real Estate

471
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

319

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing146

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

116

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

203

Special Merchandise

247

92

Various Merchandise

46

Pulp, Paper and Paper ProductsManufacturing（2,826）Wholesale（2,549）Retail（786）138Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

206

Chemical

363

Transportation,Warehousing

460

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

497

Restaurants

109

General Machinery

449

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

305

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

13

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

98

107

Leasing,Rentals

70

Lodging, Hotels

Others69

Recreation

Food,Beverages

330

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

163

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical14

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,163）

995
109
17

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

225

289

Advertising

121

109

Information

532

249

Labor Dispatching

77

32

Special Services

382
130

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

259

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment805

Education

Others313

Others36
210
38

OthersTotal

3.Size56

Large Firms

1,671

14.8%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,596

85.2%

micro Firms

3,812

33.8%

Total

11,267100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,267

TDB Trends Research February 2024

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted February 15 – 29 2024

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail TradeService**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6543210

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0

Economic DI＝Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N×

16×

1
6× 100× 100©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research February 20245