DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVE TSUNAMI SIMULATOR FOR POSSIBLETSUNAMI DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IN A COASTAL COMMUNITY
Shunichi KOSHIMURA , Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Inst.
Toshitaka KATADA , Department of Civil Engineering, Gunma Univ.
Noriyuki Kuwasawa , Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.

Abstrac t : Coastal communities along the Pacific coast in Japan are under the threat of gigantic
tsunamis accompanied with possible megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough within 30 to 40years. To protect the coastal communities from the tsunami disaster, it is evident that each coastal
community should have its own disaster reduction strategy and tools to evaluate if it works. The aim of thepresent study is to develop a comprehensive tsunami simulator to evaluate each community’s tsunami
disaster preparedness and mitigation strategy, that consists of constructing tsunami hazard scenario, issuing
warning guidance for evacuation, communication between residents, evacuation planning, and estimationof human casualties. Tsunami hazard scenario is provided by the result of tsunami propagation andinundation modeling based on the non-linear shallow water theory, assuming possible great earthquake ofTsunami generation 00:00

After Tsunami generation 00:10

Mw 8.6 along the Nankai Trough. Resident communication analysis is based on the Biased net model, thatis one of the network model theories. Evacuation analysis is performed by using one of the functions ofGeographic Information System (GIS). The present simulator is applied to Owase City that has apopulation of approximately 24000 and is one of the most vulnerable coastal communities against thetsunami due to great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough.

After Tsunami generation 00:20
Computed tsunami inundation zone
at City of Owase

After Tsunami generation 00:30
Computed tsunami waveform at Owase BayNankai Trough

1500
1600

1605 Keicho, M7.9

17001707 Houei, M8.4, 5038 dead1854 Nankai, M8.4
1854 Tokai, M8.4 2658 dead

1800
1900

1944 Tou-Nankai, M7.9, 998 dead1946 Nankai, M8.0, 1330 dead

2000
Rupture Area??

inundation depthFig. 1： Coastal communities along the Pacific coast in Japan are under the threat of gigantic tsunamis

F ig . 4 ： Coastal communities along the Pacific coast in Japan are under the threat of gigantic

accompanied with possible megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough within 30 to 40 years. To
protect the coastal residents from the tsunami, it is evident that each coastal community should have its own
disaster reduction strategy and tools to evaluate if it works.

tsunamis accompanied with possible megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough within 30 to 40years. To protect the coastal residents from the tsunami, it is evident that each coastal community shouldhave its own disaster reduction strategy and tools to evaluate if it works.

Evacuation Plan/Strategy

F i g . 2：
Coastal communities along thePacific coast in Japan are under
the threat of gigantic tsunamis
accompan ied wi th p o ss i b lemegathrust earthquakes along theNankai Trough within 30 to 40years. To protect th e c oas ta lresidents from the tsunami, it isevident that each coastal
community should have its own

Common GIS/Database
Tsunami Hazard

Disaster Information

Scenario

Scenario

Simulation

Simulation

Evacuation/Casualty
Estimation

Simulation

Assessment

避難終了までにかかった時間の図

disaster reduction strategy andtools to evaluate if it works.

Strategy for tsunami disaster preparedness

F ig . 5 ： Coastal communities along the Pacific coast in Japan are under the threat of gigantic
Occurrence or
Appearance ofDisaster

Biased Network◎

◎◎b○

◎◎
◎
a○

tsunamis accompanied with possible megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough within 30 to 40years. To protect the coastal residents from the tsunami, it is evident that each coastal community shouldhave its own disaster reduction strategy and tools to evaluate if it works. The aim of the present study isto develop a comprehensive tsunami simulator to evaluate each community’s tsunami disaster
preparedness and mitigation strategy, that consists of constructing tsunami hazard scenario, issuing
warning guidance for evacuation, communication between residents, evacuation planning, and○

市○○

○

◎◎

Local
Local Government
Government

Warning/Guidance

◎◎

◎

◎◎

◎
◎

Media
Media

Fixed Loudspeaker
Patrol Car
Fire EngineTV and Radio…etc

The Next StepRandom Network○Ｘ
CitizenCitizenOral and Tele
Communication

Ｚ○P1estimation of human casualties.

○ＸＺ○

P2○Ｙ

○Ｙ

Reflection Linkage
P1＝π＋(１−π)dMutual Linkage
P2＝σ＋(１−σ)dπ : Reflection Bias Parameterσ : Mutual Bias Parameter

Fig. 3： Coastal communities along the Pacific coast in Japan are under the threat of gigantic tsunamis
accompanied with possible megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough within 30 to 40 years. To
protect the coastal residents from the tsunami, it is evident that each coastal community should have its
own disaster reduction strategy and tools to evaluate if it works. The aim of the present study is to develop
a comprehensive tsunami simulator to evaluate each community’s tsunami disaster preparedness andmitigation strategy, that consists of constructing tsunami hazard scenario, issuing warning guidance forevacuation, communication between residents, evacuation planning, and estimation of human casualties.

A u th o r s:
-Shunichi KOSHIMUTRA, Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Inst. , 1-5-2 Wakinohama
Kaigan-Dori, Chuo-Ku, Kobe 651-0073 JAPAN. Email : koshimuras@dri.ne.jp
Toshitaka KATADA, Department of Civil Engineering, Gunma Univ., 1-5-2 Tenjin-Cho, KiryuCity, Gunma, 376-8515 JAPAN. Email : katada@ce.gunma-u.ac.jp
Noriyuki KUWASAWA, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., 5-4 Koji-Machi, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo 102-8539
JAPAN. Email : a5668@n-koei.co.jp