ISCO Interdisciplinary Science Conference
OIST, Okinawa – Japan
February 27, 2023

Neil Davies, UC Berkeley

ndavies@berkeley.edu

Island Earth
Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars | Infrastructure for Democratic
Ecological Actions (IDEAs)

1. Island EarthContext: Science & Society (Polynesia)

People, Ocean, Planet

Island EarthX

MooreaTetiaroa

MooreaTahitiMOOREA ECOSTATION

French Polynesia

Research, Higher Education, & Innovation Council of French Polynesia

Scales of Complexity• Tetiaroa• pop ~150
• 6.5 km2 (land)• “flat” atollTetiaroa

Search for suitable field
Windward group –sites
Society Islands• Moorea• pop ~17,000• 134 km2
• 1,207 m• Tahiti• pop ~184,000• 1,045 km2• 2,241 m

MooreaTahitiGump South PacificResearch Station

Moorea, French Polynesia

Established 1985

Mission: ResearchInterdisciplinary
Physical/Chemical, Bio/Ecological, Social/Humanities

Established 2004
at Gump Station> 2000 researchers at 28 sites
who apply long-term observation,experiments, and modeling tounderstand how ecologicalsystems function over decades

Global Collaboration
International Long-term Ecological Research Network (ILTER)

MooreaMirtl et al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.001

Moorea has become a model system for global change& sustainability science

The Moorea IDEA Project is developing climatechange scenario forecasting models

Cressey (2015) Tropical paradise inspires virtual ecology lab. Nature 517:255–256.

Researchers mapping the sea floor
around Moorea

Mission: Higher Education

UCLA Marine Biology Quarter2014

Key UC Undergraduate courses taught at the Gump Station••••

Fall – UC Berkeley: Biology & Geomorphology of Tropical Islands
Winter/Spring – UC Berkeley: Island Sustainability Semester
Spring – UCLA: Marine Biology Quarter
Summer – UCLA: The Diversity Project Summer Course

Graduate student research training at the Gump Station
NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU)
awardees

PhD candidate conducting herdissertation research
PhD candidate and her undergraduate assistant withtheir faculty advisor

PhD candidate and his under-graduateassistant trapping mosquitoesMission: Outreach & Public Service

Community CenterResearch Station

Science-Society Dialogue

Centre Atitia

Te Pū ‘Atiti’aLocal and Indigenous Knowledge

Outreach: Combining Traditional Knowledge
and Scientific Understanding in K12 Education

ROSSPublic Service: collaboration with FP Dept. Agriculture brought a major pest
insect under biological control throughout French Polynesia

2. Island Digital
Ecosystem Avatars(IDEA) Consortium
Infrastructure for Democratic Ecological Action

Overview¡ Island Ecosystems: Challenges for Sustainability¡ Model Systems for Sustainability¡ IDEA 1: Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars¡ IDEA 2: Infrastructure for Democratic EcologicalAction

Overview¡ Island Ecosystems: Challenges for Sustainability¡ Model Systems for Sustainability¡ IDEA 1: Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars¡ IDEA 2: Infrastructure for Democratic EcologicalAction

Navigating the Anthropocene
Collective Intelligence | Social-Ecological ForesightIsland Earth: Societal Challenges
Sustainability andEnvironmental Justice

Economic Equity andSocial JusticeIsland Earth: Scientific Challenges
Connecting Large Scale Change to Local Impact…

PLANET DOWN

Purves et al. Ecosystems: Time to model all life on Earth. Nature 2013, 493:295–7.

GENOME UP

Sauer et al. (2007) Getting Closer to the Whole Picture. Science 316:550–551

Systems Ecology:
Island Earth
A complex problem

Reduce the Complexity
Model Systems

Systems Ecology:
Moorea Island
A tractable problem

Overview¡ Island Ecosystems: Challenges for Sustainability¡ Model Systems for Sustainability¡ IDEA 1: Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars¡ IDEA 2: Infrastructure for Democratic EcologicalAction

How to build a model ecosystem

Raes & Bork (2008) Molecular eco-systems biology: towards an understanding of community function. Nature Reviews 6:693-699
Sauer et al. (2007) Getting Closer to the Whole Picture. Science 316, 550

Model Ecosystems Roadmap

Raes & Bork (2008) Molecular eco-systems biology: towards an understanding of community function. Nature Reviews 6:693-699
Sauer et al. (2007) Getting Closer to the Whole Picture. Science 316, 550

Moorea Interactome (e.g., Food webs)

38Oxford, Sept. 2012
First international GOs meeting

Observations across scales ofbiological organization- open and closed systems

First Globally Coordinated Genomic Action

June 21st 2014 >180 sites

We have a global genomic
observatory!
– should we choose to use it

Model Ecosystems Roadmap

Raes & Bork (2008) Molecular eco-systems biology: towards an understanding of community function. Nature Reviews 6:693-699
Sauer et al. (2007) Getting Closer to the Whole Picture. Science 316, 550

Understanding Resilience of Corals: Time Series
Fore reef% Coral Cover60504030201020020 5020 6020 7020 8020 9
120 0
120 1
120 2
120 3
120 4150Credit: Sally Holbrook - UC Santa BarbaraYear20020 5020 6020 7020 8020 9
120 0
120 1
120 2
120 3
120 4
15% Coral CoverFore reef

60

50403020100Year

Very high resilience of corals on the fore reef
Fore reef

50
40
30
2010020020 5020 6020 7020 8020 9
120 0
120 1
120 2
120 3
120 4
1555% Coral Cover60Year

Until recently, coral reefs have been able to recover (resilient)Disturbance

Recovery of coral

Now, many coral reefs do not recover & often become seaweed beds
Seaweeds prevent corals from returning
DisturbanceTransition to seaweeds

Coral reefs under increasing stress from local as well as global change
Both sources lower resilience
Fishing Pressure

Nutrient Pollution

Ocean Warming

Ocean Acidification

Need deeper understanding of the social-ecological system tomaintain resilience & the societal benefits coral reefs provide

Credit: Sally Holbrook - UC Santa Barbara

Community Decision-Support
Island Avatar 2015

Raes & Bork (2008) Molecular eco-systems biology: towards an understanding ofcommunity function. Nature Reviews 6:693-699
Sauer et al. (2007) Getting Closer to the Whole Picture. Science 316, 550

SocialEcological
Foresight

Thiault L, Gelcich S, Marshall N, Marshall P, Chlous F, Claudet J.
Conservation Letters. 2020; 13:e12677. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12677

Overview¡ Island Ecosystems: Challenges for Sustainability¡ Model Systems for Sustainability¡ IDEA 1: Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars¡ IDEA 2: Infrastructure for Democratic EcologicalAction

Moorea IDEA

Island Digital Ecosystem Avatar

IDEA-1 Workshop @ ETH Zurich, November 2013

Organized by Matthias Troyer

URBAN MODELING
SMALL ISLANDS “SMART CITIES”

Island Avatars¡ An open-science initiativein systems ecology¡ Mission: to build use-oriented
simulations (avatars) of entire socialecological systems¡ Challenge: to model links andfeedbacks between climate,environment, biodiversity, andhuman activities

Steering Committee members from:Framework

WORKING
GROUP

TASK

1. Data Science

Integrating diverse datasources, coupling models,visualizing information

2. Physical Modeling

Oceanic / atmosphericforcing, physical-chemical
properties and fluxes

3. Genes toEcosystems

Biodiversity dynamics,
evolutionary processes,
ecological interactions

4. Social-EcologicalSystems

Coupling past, present,
future ecosystems tohuman activities

5. Simulations,
Synthesis, and Service

Use-oriented avatar fordata exploration, scenariobased planning, education

IDEA Consortium (2016)

Established 2020

Digital Twins¡ Medicine¡ Industry¡ Urban planning

What is a Digital Twin?

¡ Digital Twin is “a model of asystem that evolves together withthe system over time” (Wright &Davidson 2020 Adv. Model and
Simul. In Eng. Sci.).

https://theodi.org/article/digital-twins-user-research/

Island Twin¡ ‘federations’ of digital
twins joined together via
securely shared data.

European Digital Twin of theOcean¡ “The ocean is still largely a great mystery forhumankind. That is why Europe is building a
digital twin of the ocean. […]¡ It will make ocean knowledge open-access,available to citizens, scientists andpolicymakers around the world. It will be aplatform for global cooperation.”
Ursula von der Leyen
European Commission President
One Ocean Summit , Feb 2022Caveat Avatar• Place is an emergent property of interconnected physical, biological,
socio-economic systems ~ a Shared Identity• Social-Ecological Systems can be chaotic, and/or the rules of thesystem are only partially visible• Island avatars are not clones (twins); they are multiple, competing
hypotheses• They improve with more evidence but remain scientifically fallible• Vigilance needed: risk of human bias (manipulation) in what data arecollected (fabricated), which models are developed, and how
predictions and uncertainty are presented

Curation Challenge¡ Digital predictions are composed of data + models¡ Place-based data – diverse types/sources¡ Scientific models – diverse scales/quality¡ Scenario-based planning for public policy requires curation ofunderlying evidence in the public interest¡ Foresight commons? Curate admissible evidence through:¡ Place-based data institutions at nested levels of governance underdemocratic control¡ Coordination of tools and best-practice for interoperability across places
and scales

Socio-Economic Observatory

Dépense énergétique globale
de l’île de Moorea =~ 20 millions de litres de pétrole
importés par an=~ 1,3 milliards de francs CFP ~$15
million dépensés par an

Integration
Challenge

Open Science Cyber-Infrastructure
Findable

Reusable

FAIR Data

Interoperable

Accessible“… enhancing the ability of machines toautomatically find and use data, in addition
to supporting its reuse by individuals”(Wilkinson et al. 2016)

Futuromics – In Situ Sampling

Sampling Nature(The Internet of Samples)(Research Coordination Network)

TechnologyiSamples•

Develop cyberinfrastructure

NSF OAC-2004839•••Community

Maximize theValue ofToday’sSamplesforTomorrow’sScience

Funded by the US National Science Foundation

Provide scientific vision
Develop & promote best practices & standards
Overcome social barriers

NSF DBI-2129268

See: Davies, N., et al. (2021). "Internet of Samples (iSamples): Toward aninterdisciplinary cyberinfrastructure for material samples." Gigascience 10(5):giab028.

Funded by the US National Science Foundation

Toward a Foresight Commons: how tointegrate data-centric FAIR principles
with ethical, legal, social aspects ofpeople-centric CARE principles for
Indigenous data governance

California Digital Library, Berkeley Institute for Data Science, Data Cite, UC Natural Reserve System

Overview¡ Island Ecosystems: Challenges for Sustainability¡ Model Systems for Sustainability¡ IDEA 1: Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars¡ IDEA 2: Infrastructure for Democratic EcologicalAction

Einstein (1949)“we should be on our guard not tooverestimate science and scientificmethods when it is a question of humanproblems;
and we should not assume that experts
are the only ones who have a right toexpress themselves on questions
affecting the organization of society.”• But what do we want?
• What future state do we need science to help us reach?
• And who is ”we”?
• How should we decide who represents us?
• What happens when “we” disagree?

New Democratic
Thinking

Cognitive diversity and democratic
reasoning: ordinary people are theexperts when it comes to questions
affecting the organization of society forthe common good

1. Giving people agency and dignity through participation;
2. Distributing equal political power through representation by lot(sortition), and
3. Channeling collective wisdom and enabling people to findcommon ground through deliberation.
https://demnext.org/
Foresight commons and digital avatars could help curate andcommunicate admissible evidence for citizens assemblies todeliberate overNew Science-Community-Policy Dialogues

New LegalThinking

New Economic Thinking

New FinancialThinking

Multi-dimensional accounting:
Balance optimization vs resilienceThank you, merci, mauruuru roa !