Georgia Institute of Technology
From the SelectedWorks of Diana Hicks

March 21, 2008

The Effect of Foreign Science Policy on U.S.
Research
Diana M Hicks, Georgia Institute of Technology - Main Campus

Available at: https://works.bepress.com/diana_hicks/4/

The Effect of Foreign Science Policy on U.S.
Research
Diana Hicks

The global scientific landscape has changed. Over the past
decade many governments became convinced that theireconomic futures lay with knowledge-based economies inwhich research is central. Governments sought to strengthen
national research, swiftly building capability and fostering asharper competitive culture. As a result, foreign scientificcommunities have become more competitive and publication
output increased – Fig. 1. From within the fast-paced US
research community these changes may be little noticed, theirsignificance obscure. The effects of these changes have been
easy to underestimate because the size of the US scientificenterprise still dwarfs that of any other country (though thescientific output of the EU is now larger – Fig. 1).
Nevertheless, in aggregate these shifts are beginning to havean impact on US research.
Around the world governments’ science policy trajectories
and goals are clear and so we can imagine the world we might
inhabit a few years hence. Fig. 1 extrapolates recent trends inscientific output through 2018 for the US, EU and Asiancountries. These extrapolations suggest that 10 years hence,
we may see US scientists publishing less than EU scientists orscientists from Asian countries in aggregate (China, India,Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore), see Fig. 2.

.

Abstract-Increased emphasis on strengthening national scientificcommunities has been seen around the world in recent decades.
The US scientific community will feel the effects.

Predicted number of papers - 2015x

School of Public Policy
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

Asian countries

EU-15United States

Fig. 2 Predicted number of papers published by scientists in Asia, EU and
US in 2015

Number of papers published (thousands)

If this prediction comes to pass, it will have several
implications for US scientists.
In 2015, science andtechnology will advance even faster than they do at present.
More diverse approaches will be brought to bear on toughproblems which will accelerate their solution. At the personallevel, US scientists will compete for the best students and forcorporate research support not just with other US universities
but with Asian and European universities. And US scientists
will have to compete for limited space in top journals not justwith other US scientists, but with more and better scientists
from around the world. Races to patent discoveries will
involve more players. Inevitably, this will reduce theperceived achievements of younger generations of US
300
scientists, who though they will work far harder than previous
generations will seem somehow not to command the same250
dominating position in world science as did their predecessors.
We seem to be entering a new era in science policy. The
EU-15U.S. has long accepted that its share of world scientific output
200
United Stateswill decline as scientific communities in other countries
strengthen. This process seems to have accelerated sharply, as
150
other governments have become convinced that theireconomic futures lie with knowledge-based economies in100
which research plays a central role. Foreign scientificcommunities have become much more competitive at the same
50time as the Federal government's attention is increasingly
focused on sciences closely linked to medical care.
0The institutions of modern science have in many ways
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
been a gift from the United States to the rest of the world. TheU.S. has demonstrated that the best quality scientific research
Fig. 1. Number of papers published through 2003 and extrapolation: US,is fostered when funding is awarded competitively, plentiful
EU, Asian countries. Data source [1].
rigorously trained PhD students and postdocs are availablecheaply, substantial amounts of money are spent, modernequipment is used, and transfer of research to technologicalapplication is encouraged. In many ways, other countries havesought over the past decade to incorporate more of theseelements into their systems. Furthermore, the U.S. hasprobably trained or at some point employed many of thescientists now doing so well back home. As a result,
American universities no longer stand alone at the scientificfrontier.
REFERENCES[1]
National Science Board. 2006. Science and Engineering Indicators
2006. Two volumes. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1,NSB 06-01; volume 2, NSB 06-01A).