GH23A: Climate Link to Infectious Diseases: Toward Development ofSuccessful Early Warning Systems I
Climate variability such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole influence the abundance of vectorsthat in turn affect the spread of the diseases like malaria in many parts of the world. In addition to the pathogens,survival of the host is also directly influenced by climate conditions and indirectly through the climate induced
environmental conditions. Many of these climate and environmental factors are also responsible for water-borne
infections like diarrhea and airborne diseases like flu. Therefore, appropriately attributing the outbreaks in infectious
diseases to climatic variables and quantifying those relationships to a number of outbreaks would be important in thedirections of preparing mitigation strategies. This session will discuss those mechanisms of climate-diseaseconnections and developments of climate based early warning systems for infectious diseases. We encourage
abstract submissions on the topics of climate link to infectious diseases, disease monitoring and climate-based
predictions of infectious diseases.
Tuesday, 11 December 2018
13:40 - 15:40
Marriott Marquis - Independence F-H

Primary Convener
Swadhin K Behera
JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science andTechnologyConveners
Masahiro Hashizume
Nagasaki University

Kristie L Ebi
ClimAdapt, LLC

Glenn McGregor
Durham University

ChairsSwadhin K Behera
JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science andTechnology

Masahiro Hashizume
Nagasaki University

OSPA Liaison
Kristie L Ebi
ClimAdapt, LLC

Index Terms
Papers
13:40

GH23A-01 Establishment of an early warning system for malaria in Southern Africa, incorporating climate
predictions – Overview of the iDEWS project
Noboru Minakawa(Invited)1231Noboru Minakawa , Neville 5Sweijd , Swadhin
Hashizume
6 K Behera , Masahiro
78 ,Takeshi Ikeda, Yoonhee
Kim , Peter 10
Witbooi , Philip Kruger, Willem Landman,911
1Rajendra Maharaj , Masami Nonaka , Yushi Morioka and Ataru Tsuzuki ,(1)Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan, (2)Applied Center for Climate and Earth
Systems Science, Cape Town, South Africa, (3)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (4)University of Tokyo, Tokyo,Japan, (5)University of the Western Cape, Department of Mathematics, Cape Town,South Africa, (6)Limpopo Department of Health, Tzaneen, South Africa, (7)Universityof East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich,
United Kingdom, (8)MRC, Durban, South Africa, (9)Application Laboratory,
JAMSTEC, Yokohama Kanagawa, Japan, (10)JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

13:55

GH23A-02 The Macroscope Meets the Microscope: Connecting Earth Observations with Public Health
Surveillance to Forecast Mosquito-Borne Diseases
Michael C Wimberly(Invited)Michael C Wimberly, Justin Kyle Davis, Andrea Hess and Dawn Nekorchuk,
University of Oklahoma, Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability,Norman, OK, United States

14:10

GH23A-03 Challenges for Malaria Early Warning Systems in the Amazon
William K Pan

1123

William 2K Pan , Mark Janko, Ben M Zaitchik1 , Beth Feingold1 , Gloria Cristina
4
Recalde , Carlos Mena , Francesco Pizzitutti and Axel Berky , (1)Duke University,Durham, NC, United States, (2)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, UnitedStates, (3)SUNY-Albany, Albany, NY, United States, (4)Universidad San Francisco
de Quito, Quito, Ecuador
14:25

GH23A-04 Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Develop an Early Warning System for Dengue Fever
Risk in Central America and the Caribbean
Cory Morin
Cory Morin, Snohomish, WA, United States, Kristie Ebi, University of Washington,Seattle, United States and Samuel Sellers, University of Washington Seattle, Seattle,United States

14:40

GH23A-05 A Prediction System for Vector-Borne Diseases : a Use Case for Weekly Estimation of West
Nile Virus Risk
Johnny Albert Uelmen Jr
123

4Marilyn, Nancy Westcott , Rebecca
L. Smith , Surendra
5 Ruiz , Marcus Slavenas
413Karki , William M.6 Brown , Johnny Albert Uelmen Jr , Leslie A. Stoecker andKenton McHenry , (1)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, UnitedStates, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, National Center for
Supercomputing Applications, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)Illinois State WaterSurvey, Champaign, United States, (4)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign,
Pathobiology, Urbana, United States, (5)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign,
Pathobiology, Urbana, IL, United States, (6)National Center for Super Computing
Applications, Urbana, IL, United States14:55

GH23A-06 Assessing the importance of climate variability for predicting West Nile Virus mosquito
infection rates and human risk in the Northeast US
Alexander C Keyel123Alexander
3 C Keyel , Oliver2 Elison Timm , P Bryon 3Backenson , Catharine
23Prussing , Sarah Quinones, Kathleen McDonough , Mathias F Vuille , Jan E. Conn
3and Laura Kramer , (1)New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, UnitedStates, (2)University at Albany, State University of New York, Department ofAtmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (3)New YorkState Department of Health, Albany, United States
15:10

GH23A-07 Integrating Climate Change and Variability into Infectious Disease Decision Making: Lessons
from sub-Saharan Africa.
Colin Quinn
Colin Quinn, US Agency for International Development, Falls Church, VA, UnitedStates, Tegan Blaine, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Africa,Washington, DC, United States, Fernanda Zermoglio, Chemonics International,Washington DC, United States, James Colborn, Clinton Health Access Initiative,
Maputo, Mozambique and Kristie Ebi, University of Washington, Seattle, UnitedStates

15:25

GH23A-08 Applying Proxy Data to Investigate the Relationship between Climate Variability and Diarrheal
Disease Incidence in South Africa
Neville Sweijd

1234

Neville Sweijd , Takayoshi
Ikeda , Swadhin
K Behera , Noboru Minakawa,
456Masahiro Hashizume , Caradee Wright and Jhandre Breedenkamp , (1)AppliedCenter for Climate and Earth Systems Science, Cape Town, South Africa, (2)JapanAgency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (3)JAMSTEC
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan,(4)Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan, (5)South African Medical ResearchCouncil, Johannesburg, South Africa, (6)Clicks Group Limited, Cape Town, SouthAfrica
15:25

GH23A-08B Climate-based predictions of malaria outbreak probability in Limpopo, South Africa
Takayoshi Ikeda

1112Takayoshi Ikeda, Swadhin K Behera, Masami Nonaka
234 , Masahiro Hashizume
2 ,Ataru Tsuzuki , Rajendra Maharaj , Qavanisi Mabunda and Noboru Minakawa ,(1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa,Japan, (2)Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan, (3)MRC, Durban, South Africa,(4)Malaria Control Center, Tzaneen, South Africa
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Day: Tuesday, 11 December 2018