AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
NPIRIPS

Nakasone Yasuhiro
Peace Institute

The Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs(Secretariat)

Research Institute for
Peace and Security

No. 297
16 September 2022

SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVEJAPAN-SOUTH KOREA RELATIONS
Junya Nishino

・ The inauguration of the Yoon administration isviewed as an opportunity to improve
Japan-South Korea relations.
・ Cautious and skeptical views still exist as towhether this willingness will actually lead toimprovement because of the weakness of theYoon administration's domestic political baseand the nature of the pending issues between
Japan and South Korea.
・ In order to bridge this gap, frequent and close
communications for rebuilding a trusting
relationshipbetweenthediplomatic
authorities as well as the political leaders ofJapan and South Korea are necessary.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should not be
attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies.

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

The March 9 presidential election in South Korea saw a change of government,with the conservative Yoon Seok-yeol taking office on May 10. Amid a decade of
deteriorating relations between Japan and South Korea, attention is focused on whether
the new Yoon administration, which has strongly emphasized the need to improve
relations with Japan since the presidential election campaign, will lead to a full-fledged
improvement in bilateral relations. However, while some in Japan are positive about theYoon administration's willingness to improve relations, many remain cautious andskeptical as to whether this willingness will actually lead to improvement. There are twomain reasons for this: the weakness of the Yoon administration's domestic political baseand the nature of the pending issues between Japan and South Korea.
Let us start with a look at the administration's political base. First, Yoon'ssupport base is not rock solid, as he barely won by 0.73%, the narrowest margin in thehistory of South Korea's presidential elections. Yoon won 48.56% of the vote to 47.83%
for the loser Lee Jae-myung, and he will have to face a large number of opposition
forces while running the country's affairs. Second, the progressive opposition party
holds a majority of seats in the National Assembly, and it is expected to be difficult for
the Yoon government and the ruling party to pass bills given the fierce antagonism
between the ruling and opposition parties. The next election for South Korea's National
Assembly will be held in April 2024 and, unless there is a major political realignment, theruling party will remain in the minority for at least two years. There is no guarantee thatthe ruling party will have a majority in the next election. Third, public support is not high.
In July, two months after the inauguration of the Yoon administration, its disapproval ratesurpassed its approval rate (28% approval and 62% disapproval in the fourth week ofJuly, according to a Gallup Korea opinion survey). In light of the above, it will not beeasy for President Yoon to show bold leadership in improving relations with Japan, oneof the most sensitive issues in South Korea.
In addition, there is the difficulty of resolving the wartime labor issue, which isthe biggest pending issue between Japan and South Korea. The governments of Japanand South Korea had agreed that the issue was "completely and finally settled" when
the two countries normalized their diplomatic relations by concluding the 1965
agreement. However, former workers in South Korea subsequently filed lawsuits
against Japanese companies seeking compensation. The Japanese companies weredeemed liable for compensation in South Korean Supreme Court rulings in 2018 andtheir assets in South Korea were ordered seized. If the South Korean administration
were to stop the process of seized assets being “liquidated” in accordance with the

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

rulings, this would be negatively regarded within South Korea as the executive branchgoing against the final decision of the judicial branch and intervening in the matter. For
the Yoon administration to resolve this issue, then, it must seek and implement anothersolution while respecting the judgment, all the while garnering the plaintiffs’
understanding and public opinion. On July 4, the Yoon administration launched apublic-private consultative body comprising government officials, plaintiffs, and experts
as a framework for discussing a path toward resolving the issue. The body met fourtimes but dissolved without producing any concrete results. It will be a difficult task forthe administration, which does not have a strong domestic political base, to form aconsensus. Given these circumstances alone, skepticism about the potential for
improved relations is understandable.
Nevertheless, the Kishida administration has shown a willingness to view theinauguration of the Yoon administration as an opportunity and has responded toPresident Yoon's efforts to mend ties with Japan at an early stage. Prime Minister
Kishida Fumio extended his congratulations to Yoon on his victory the day after thepresidential election, and they also held a telephone conversation the following day(March 11). During the talk, Prime Minister Kishida stated that he would like to"cooperate closely with President-elect Yoon to improve Japan-South Korea relations,"
recognizing that "when the international community is confronted with epoch-making
changes, sound Japan-South Korea relations are indispensable in realizing arules-based international order and ensuring peace, stability and prosperity in the region
and the world. " On April 26, Prime Minister Kishida had a meeting with the policy
consultative delegation dispatched by the incoming Yoon administration and made thefollowing statement: "Amidst the current global situation in which the rules-based
international order is threatened, there has never been a time when Japan-South Korea
strategic cooperation and Japan-South Korea-US strategic cooperation have been
needed more, and there is no time to waste in improving Japan-South Korea relations."
Although some in the ruling party felt that it was premature for the prime minister tomeet the delegation before any concrete moves had been made by the South Koreanside on pending issues, not only the prime minister but also the chief cabinet secretary,
foreign minister, defense minister, and economic minister met separately with thedelegation and welcomed the positive attitude of the Yoon administration on therelationship between Japan and South Korea.
In addition, Prime Minister Kishida dispatched Foreign Minister Hayashi
Yoshimasa as a special envoy to President Yoon’s inauguration ceremony. During a

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courtesy call on President Yoon, Foreign Minister Hayashi delivered a personal letterfrom Prime Minister Kishida and stated, "there is no time to waste in improving
Japan-South Korea relations." Foreign Minister Hayashi also met with Foreign Ministernominee Park Jin and they agreed to "speedily discuss the pending issues between
Japan and South Korea, including at a high level, in order to resolve them as soon aspossible. " This move can be attributed to the wish of the leaders of both countries thatthe change of government in South Korea lead to improved relations between the twocountries.
Of course, that is not the only issue at hand. As Prime Minister Kishida told
Yoon, the rules-based international order faces a crisis due to Russia's invasion of
Ukraine and China's attempts to change the status quo by force, so cooperation
between Japan and South Korea, two neighboring countries that share the values ofliberal democracy, are both allies of the United States, and are the third and tenthlargest economies in the world, is indeed an essential requirement. While public
sentiment in both countries, where majorities in each are critical and suspicious of theother country, remains a limiting factor in improving relations, the current internationalsituation is acting as a driving force to encourage cooperation between the twocountries. In addition, the US Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy and thesituation in North Korea, which is reportedly preparing to conduct its seventh nuclear
test, are also accelerating cooperation between Japan and South Korea as well as
among Japan, South Korea and the United States. President Biden’s visit to South
Korea and Japan in late May provided particular impetus for trilateral cooperation and,on June 29 during the NATO summit, the first trilateral summit meeting in about fiveyears took place, albeit for only a short time.
Although the restoration of trilateral cooperation is progressing at a fast pacethanks in part to US efforts, the situation is not yet conducive to holding a summit
meeting on improving bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea. For sometime now, Japan has consistently maintained that the South Korean side should first
resolve pending issues, including the wartime labor issue, as Prime Minister Kishida
and Foreign Minister Hayashi have told the South Korean side: "it is necessary todevelop Japan-South Korea relations based on the foundation of friendly cooperative
relations that have been built since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1965." In
response, President Yoon has asked the Japanese side to "cooperate together" forimproving ties. The gap between the two countries remains wide in terms of what bothsides can and should do to resolve pending issues.

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

In order to bridge this gap, frequent and close communications for rebuilding atrusting relationship between the diplomatic authorities as well as the political leaders ofJapan and South Korea are necessary. The July 18 meeting between foreign ministers
Hayashi and Park in Tokyo was the start of this process. As trust between the twocountries is gradually restored, it will become possible to reactivate bilateral economic
and security cooperation, which has declined in recent years. In doing so, Prime
Minister Kishida should positively consider lifting the stricter export controls imposed on
South Korea from July 2019 onwards because the South Korean side has made efforts
to implement corrective measures. This will help the Yoon administration gain public
understanding in South Korea when it seeks to improve Japan-South Korea relations.
The Yoon administration is seeking to expand comprehensive cooperation
between Japan and South Korea, and the Japanese side should respond by showing awillingness to resume cooperation with the South Korean side. In Japan-South Korea
relations, the words and deeds of the leaders of both countries still have a great impact
on how the people of both countries perceive each other.
The last full-scale summit meeting between the two countries was the Noda
Yoshihiko-Lee Myung-bak meeting in Kyoto in December 2011, and there has been noshuttle diplomacy between the Japanese and South Korean leaders for more than adecade since then. It’s true that "there is no time to waste in improving Japan-South
Korea relations," but it will actually take a long time to do so as the decade of
deteriorating relations has been so long. Now is the time for the leaders and people ofboth countries to make that step forward.

Junya Nishino is Professor in the Faculty of Law at Keio University.

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