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IERE Technology Foresight Activities 2021:
Survey on IERE Members’ VisionTable of contents
Executive summary ..................................................................................................................................... iii
1.

Background ...........................................................................................................................................1

2.

Trending keywords ...............................................................................................................................3

3.

After and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic .........................................................................................74.

Directions of the technology development policy .................................................................................95.

Priority of relevant technologies, and technical items/issues .............................................................. 11

5.1 Generation ........................................................................................................................................ 11
5.2 Transmission/distribution and retail .................................................................................................14
5.3 Strategic management ......................................................................................................................20
6.

Technologies of high interest to member ............................................................................................25

7.

Web conference ...................................................................................................................................29

7.1 Outline of the survey results (Mr. Tetsuo Matsumura, IERE Central Office) .................................29
7.2 Notable opinions...............................................................................................................................29
7.2.1 COVID-19 (1) (Dr. Munib Amin, E.ON) .................................................................................29
7.2.2 COVID-19 (2) (Mr. Mark McGranaghan, EPRI) .....................................................................33
7.2.3 Generation (Dr. Wesley Patrick, SwRI) ....................................................................................35
7.2.4 Transmission/distribution and retail (Dr. Li Peng, CEPRI) ......................................................38
7.2.5 Strategic management (Dr. Lee, Cheuk Wing, CLP)................................................................39
7.3 Discussion at technology foresight committee meeting—potential topics for 2021–2022(Dr. Ng, Jeanne, IERE Chair) ...........................................................................................................42
7.4 Next steps .........................................................................................................................................44
8.

Relevant documents issued by the IERE members ............................................................................45

9.

Future directions..................................................................................................................................46

Appendices (separate volume)
Appendix 1: Questionnaire for “Next Technology Foresight Activity”
Appendix 2: Lists of all responses for “After and beyond COVID-19”
Appendix 3: Lists of all responses for “Generation” sector
Appendix 4: Lists of all responses for “T/D and Retail” sector
Appendix 5: Lists of all responses for “Strategic Management” sector
Appendix 6: IERE web-conference “Technology Foresight Activities 2021”
Appendix 7: Useful websites for technology trends and emerging technologies

Executive Summary

Executive summary
The power industry must meet many missions received from society, such as decarbonization, energy
efficiency, and cost reduction.
IERE started the Technology Foresight Activity in 2016. In this activity, IERE members selected 20 important
Emerging Technologies and five Fringe Technologies and summarized these technologies in the “IERE
Technology Foresight 2020 (TF2020)” report and distributed it to members in May 2017.
Since then, the social situation has changed significantly, and IERE has decided to issue a new version of thereport before TF2020 becomes obsolete. Therefore, IERE has started a new Technology Foresight activity.
There are many analyses/opinions on energy and electric power industries reported by many organizations.
From these analyses/opinions, the IERE Central Office extracted the following ten trending keyword sets:・Electrification / Energy access・

Decarbonization / Environmental protection

・Energy efficiency

・

Decentralization

・Intermittency / Stable supply

・

Prosumer・

Digitalization

・

Resiliency / Flexibility

・Management rationalization

・

Deregulation / Market trading

While referring to these trending keyword sets, the electric power industry was divided into three businesssectors: a. Generation, b. Transmission/Distribution (T/D) and Retail, and c. Strategic Management.
The IERE Central Office conducted a questionnaire (Appendix 1) survey among IERE members regarding
the priority of related technologies, their implementation and planning status, and specific technologies andissues of interest in each related technology area.
In 2020, the global epidemic of COVID-19 caused lockdowns worldwide, which had a major impact on theelectric power industry. Based on this, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was also assessed in thequestionnaire. There were 28 answers to the questionnaire from the IERE members (Table 1).

iii

IERE Technology Foresight 2021

Table 1 Number of responses by country and region
Zone
Country and region
Number of responses
Asia
Japan
14
China
2
Hong Kong SAR
1
Taiwan1
Philippines
1
EuropeGermany
2
France1
Czech Republic
1
Norway1
America
United State
2
AfricaSouth Africa
1
Others1
Total
28

After and beyond the COVID-19 pandemicFirst, the IERE Central Office sought opinions/expectations about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on
the energy system and the technology development items necessary after and beyond the COVID-19
pandemic. The following opinions regarding the electricity demand and energy composition were collected.
Here, the number in parentheses indicates the number of responses.
There are many opinions/expectations about the electricity demand: the electricity demand will decrease in
the short term (18), medium- to long-term demand will return to the original level (6), demand will increase
due to the conversion to electricity (3), and it will be difficult to determine (4). It was also noted that demandin the household sector had increased (6).
In addition, there are opinions on the progress of clean energy (10), stronger influence of the state (7), change
in energy composition (6), new needs and social issues (3), reduction of R&D budgets (2), andregionalization/self-sufficiency.
There is a risk of not being able to maintain an electric power system sufficiently to prevent the spread of
infection (2). It was also indicated that maintenance periods have been postponed and the separation of criticalteams is necessary, such as control center operators.
In the necessary technology development items, many technical items were noted such as remote work,
remote inspection/digitization (15), measures to increase telecommuting (11), power storage systems (7),digitization (7), and improvement of power supply reliability (4).
Directions of the technology development policy
While summarizing the results of the questionnaire regarding the direction of the power industry business,
the Central Office organized the results by the number of times the ten trending keywords were mentioned.
It was found that the members concentrated on one or two specific trend keywords related to each businessiv

Executive Summary

sector. These specific keywords are “Decarbonization / Environmental protection” and “Intermittency /Stable supply” (for Generation), “Intermittency / Stable supply” (for T/D and Retail), and “Digitization”(for Strategic Management) (Figure 2(a)). These keywords appear to indicate the directions that the IERE
members are aiming to follow.

2

Electriﬁca�on / Energy access

5

Decarboniza�on / Enviromentail protec�on000Energyeﬃciency
Decentraliza�on

1

2

Intermi�ency / Stable supply

3
13

3
0

Prosumer

2
1

Resiliency / Flexibility0

Deregula�on / Market trading

5

16

4
2

Management ra�onaliza�on

16

6

1

Digitaliza�on

7

4

1

7
6

5

0
Genera�on

24

7

5

T/D and retail

10

15

20

25

Management

Figure 2(a) Cumulative number of related trending keywords
extracted from responses (Q1-1, 2-1, 3-1)
In the present answers, it should be noted that the above directional trends, for example, decarbonization, do
not show regional characteristics such as in Europe, America, and Asia, and these global trends arehomogeneous among IERE members.
Priority of relevant technologies and technical items/issues
a. Generation
In the sector of “Generation,” the correlation between the priority of each related technology presented by
the Central Office and the status of implementation is very strong. However, it is noteworthy that while PV,
wind power, and hydropower have high priority, LNG, biomass, and nuclear power are more advanced interms of the implementation status (Figure 3).

v

IERE Technology Foresight 2021

PV

2.7

Wind power

3.4

2.8

Hydropower

3.7

2.7

Geothermal

1.4

Ocean energy

0.6

3.4

1.7

1.1

LNG

3.2
3.3

Coal

2.6
2.6

Biomass

3.1
3.1

Nuclear

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Implementa�on

3.0

3.4

4.0

Priority

Figure 3 Priority and implementation level of relevant technologies (Q1-2, Generation sector)
As specific technical items/issues of interest in each related technology, floating offshore wind (in wind
power-related technology), advanced hydropower operation using big data and AI (in hydropower-related
technology), risk assessments for LNG (in LNG-related technology), co-firing for biomass (in coal-related
technology), and nuclear SMR (small module reactor) (in nuclear-related technology) are attracting attention(Table 2).
Table 2 Technical items/issues of member's interests (Q1-2, Generation sector)
Relevant
technology

Technical items/issues

PV

Use of aerial drones for plant inspection, Efficiency improvement. Output
forecast, Agri-PV, Solar field, Land occupation

Wind power

Floating offshore wind turbine, Aerial drones for blade inspections, Output
forecast, Frequency, High-altitude wind power, Localization (Domestic
production)

Hydropower

Advanced maintenance (AI, etc.), Smart hydropower, Frequency control,
PSH, EIS

Geothermal

Geophysical monitoring, Efficiency improvement, Environmental protection

OceanenergyTide power generation, Wave power generation, Cost reduction

LNG

High efficiency, O&M cost reduction, Environmental protection,
Fire/explosion/risk studies on rail transport, Cold energy, AHAT

Coal

IGCC, IGFC, CCS/CCUS, SOFC, Environmental protection, Utilization ofcoal ashBiomass

Biofuel with microalgae, Co-firing with coal, Environmental protection,
Palletization

Nuclear

Output Control, SMR, Radioactive waste disposal, Severe accident response
Note: Shaded technical items/issues indicate the notable items/issuesviExecutive Summary

Regarding decarbonization measures, there is a significant difference between Japan and other countries.
Outside Japan, coal-fired power plants without CCUS are expected to be stopped and switched to renewableenergy, while Japan seems to focus on improving the technologies (efficiency, CCUS, etc.) of coal-fired
power plants. In addition, there is increasing global interest in nuclear power plants with highly safe SMRs,
which is a countermeasure against global warming.
b. T/D and Retail
In the sector of “T/D and Retail,” as the share of renewable energy in the overall energy production increases,
measures in the “Intermittency / Stable supply” area will be crucial issues.
Compared to TF2020, digitization is progressing more rapidly. As measures in the “Intermittency / Stablesupply” area, e-mobility connected to the grid is becoming widespread in addition to ESS and grid integration,and intelligence improvement via digital technology. Therefore, there is considerable interest in the impact
on EV systems and society, such as EV charging stations.
In terms of the priority/implementation level of relevant technologies, there is a high interest in batteries,
DSM/VPP, smart grids, and mini/micro grids (Figure 4).

Ba�eryPumped storage
DSM/VPP
HydrogenSuper grid
Smart grid
Mini/Micro grid
Smart House
Smart Building/town/CPS
Smart city

3.1
2.1

2.6
2.9

1.9
1.5

3.3

2.8

1.9
2.9
2.2

1.8
1.7

1.0

2.0

Implementa�on

Priority

3.6

3.1

2.0

0.0

3.5

2.9
2.7
2.8

3.0

4.0

Figure 4 Priority and implementation level of relevant technologies (Q2-2, T/D and Retail sector)
Specific technical items/issues of interest in each related technology are V2G and reuse (in battery-related
technology), DERMS (in DSM/VPP-related technology), and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) andsmart inverters (in smart grid-related technology). Mini/micro grids are highly useful/reliable for power
supply during a disaster. There are also notable indications, such as zero emission houses/buildings (in smart
house-related and smart building/town/CPS (cyber physical system)-related technology) (Table 4).

vii

IERE Technology Foresight 2021

Table 4 Technical items/issues of member's interests (Q2-2, T/D and Retail sector)
Relevant
technology

Technical items/issues

Battery

V2G, Reuse, Safety evaluation, All solid-state battery, Redox flow
batteries

Pumped storage

Output/control frequency control, Frequency control, Undergroundstorage

DSM/VPPDERMS, Large-capacity charger/discharger, Energy management

Hydrogen

P2G, Hydrogen blending in pipelines, Compression, Combustion. SOFC,
Utilization of NH3, Output control, Generation efficiency, resource
application

Super grid

UHV, UHVDC, Dispatching automation

Smart grid

AMI, FACTS, Smart inverter, SCADA, ADMS, Cloud computing, Edge
computing, Flexible DC grid, AI, IoT, Block chain, Digital twin, FLISR,IVVOMini/Micro grid

In-dependent operation, Power supply in the event of disaster, Flexible
DC grid, New energy integration, New chemical energy storage
technology, EMS, Inverter-based microgrid, IEC 61970

Smart house

HEMS, V2H, Zero emission house, Internet home appliance, Noninvasive measurement, 5G, Power line carrier communication, Eco cute(Heat Pump)

Smartbuilding/town/CPS

Zero emission building, BEMS, VPP

Smart city

Compact city, 5G, Energy storage, Electric vehicle (EV), AI, Regionalenergy system rational transportation system, Compact city,
Aggregator, xEMS
Note: Shaded technical items/issues indicate the notable items/issuesc. Strategic Management
In the sector of “Strategic Management,” which was not investigated in the previous TF2020 survey, there
are many new comments on asset management (facilities and equipment) and cybersecurity in the context ofdigitization and resilience, such as securing power supply during emergencies (Figure 5).

viiiExecutive Summary

3.3

Facili�es, equipment
2.5

Retail
2.1

Headquarters

2.8

2.5
2.3

New fron�ers

2.6
3.1

IoT and Cyber-security
2.8

Resiliency and ﬂexibility
0.0

1.0

Implementa�on

2.0

4.0

3.0

3.8
3.6

4.0

5.0

Priority

Figure 5 Priority and implementation level of relevant technologies(Q3-2, Strategic Management sector)
With regard to specific technical items/issues of interest in each relevant technology, there are relatively many
indications, such as asset management (in generation and T/D facilities/equipment-related technology),
agricultural electrification (in new frontiers-related technology), blockchain and privacy (in IoT andcybersecurity-related technology), and adaptation to climate change (in resiliency and flexibility-related
technology). However, the technical items are scattered in each relevant technology. Defense in depth, as acybersecurity measure, is remarkable (Table 6).
Table 6 Technical items/issues of member's interests (Q3-2, Strategic Management sector)
Relevant
technology

Technical items/issues

Generation and
T/D facilities,
equipment

Asset management, Smart O&M (digitalization/AI diagnosis), Asset online monitor
systems, Aging measures, Digital operations, Safety, Mobility solution

RetailDigital commerce/marketing/operation, Energy services, Algo-Trading processes,
Peer to peer trading, microgrids, Community engagement

Headquarters

Automated back-end processes, Utility 3.0, Electric power trading/data analysis(machine learning/deep learning), IRP models, Market design, FITS/Subsidy

New frontiers

Agricultural electrification, Industrial electrification, Smart farming, EV charging
infrastructure and EV management, MAAS

IoT andcybersecurity

Block chain, AI Deep learning, Prosumers, various AI technology, Digital platforms
for IoT integration across multiple stakeholders, Privacy, Data security, SCADA,
Defense in depth

Resiliency andflexibility

Adaption for climate change, Automatically detecting and grasping the damage statusof equipment, Black start technologies, LCP (life continuity plan), Earthquake
countermeasures, RAMP
Note: Shaded technical items/issues indicate the notable items/issuesix

IERE Technology Foresight 2021

Technologies of high interest to members
Technologies of high interest to IERE members across all business sectors were examined based on thepriority and implementation level of relevant technologies in a. Generation, b. T/D and Retail, and c.
Strategic Management. Table 8 shows the ranking based on the total priority value and implementationlevel of relevant technologies. Table 8 indicates that the high-ranking technologies perceived by members
are “Generation and T/D facilities, equipment” and “IoT and cybersecurity” in Strategic Management,“Battery” and “Smart grid” in T/D and Retail, and “Wind power” and “LNG” in Generation. It can be seenthat the relevant technologies of high interest are widely dispersed in the three sectors.
Table 8 Ranking based on the total value of Priority and implementation level of relevant
technologies
Electric powerindustrybusiness
sectors
Generation

T/D and Retail

Strategic
Management

Relevant technologies

Priority

Implementation

Priority +Implementation

Ranking

PV
Wind power
Hydropower
Geothermal
Ocean energy
LNG
Coal
Biomass
NuclearBattery
Pumped storage
DSM/VPP
HydrogenSuper grid
Smart grid
Mini/Micro grid
Smart house
Smart building/town/CPS
Smart city
Generation and T/D facilities,
equipment

3.40
3.67
3.38
1.73
1.11
3.25
2.59
3.14
3.38
3.48
2.59
3.33
2.79
1.94
3.61
3.12
2.94
2.69
2.82

2.65
2.76
2.67
1.41
0.56
3.15
2.59
3.14
2.95
3.14
2.12
2.89
1.89
1.50
2.94
2.18
2.00
1.75
1.71

6.05
6.43
6.05
3.14
1.67
6.40
5.18
6.29
6.33
6.62
4.71
6.22
4.68
3.44
6.56
5.29
4.94
4.44
4.53

11
5
12
24
25
7
15
9
8
3
18
10
19
23
4
13
17
22
21

4.00

3.33

7.33

1

RetailHeadquarters
New frontiers
IoT and cybersecurity
Resiliency and flexibility

2.80
2.53
2.64
3.79
3.59

2.47
2.07
2.33
3.11
2.82

5.27
4.60
4.98
6.90
6.41

14
20
16
2
6

The technical items/issues of interest in the “Generation and T/D facilities, equipment” area include asset
management, smart O&M (digitalization/AI diagnosis), asset online monitoring systems, digital operations,mobility solutions, and others, as listed in Table 6. It is believed that the rationalization of installation plans
and O&M using advanced technologies such as digitalization/AI and online monitoring are being aimed at.
The technical items/issues of interest in the “IoT and cybersecurity” area are blockchain, AI deep learning,xExecutive Summary

digital platforms for IoT integration across multiple stakeholders, data security, defense in depth, and others,
as listed in Table 6. Upgradation and cost reduction of IoT and cybersecurity measures are urgent issues, anda clear vision, policy, process chart, and common recognition in the electric power industry are required.
Technical items/issues of interest in the “Battery” area include V2G, reuse, all-solid-state batteries, and others,
as listed in Table 4, and their use as a society is drawing attention along with technological development.
Compared with previous Technology Foresight activities “TF2020,” interest in LNG and biomass, whichwere not choices in TF2020, is observed to be high. There is a growing interest in the use of LNG and biomass
as measures in “Decarbonization” and “Intermittency / Stable supply.”
Broadly examining the technical items/issues for each relevant technology, the following are listed as theother interesting technical items/issues from the perspective of their novelty and impact on society inaddition to the technologies (shaded) specified in Tables 2, 4, and 6.
・

Agri-PV・

Airborne wind energy systems (AWES)

・

CCUS

・

Compact city・

Coupled to compressed air energy storage (CAES)

・

Digital twin

・

Direct air capture (DAC)・

Edge computing・E-mobility

・Flow battery

・Power to protein

・P2H (power to hydrogen)・

Sustainable catalysts as energy transition enablers

・Various xEMS services

Web conference
A web conference on the present Technology Foresight activity was held on March 16, 2021. Following the
introduction of the outline of the survey results from the IERE Central Office, E.ON and EPRI introduced
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electric power industry; SwRI, CEPRI, and CLP introduced
the direction of technologies in the electric power industry, and discussions were held. Major trends related
to the electric power industry discussed at the Technology Foresight Committee meeting were also introduced.
Online polls for the next important technologies were conducted concurrently.
Future Directions
The technical items required in terms of decarbonization, intermittency and stable supply measures, anddigitalization were identified. In the future, the IERE should discuss any technical issues that must be reexamined and the measures to be implemented, such as collaborative research by IERE members orxi

IERE Technology Foresight 2021

outsourcing the survey to a consulting firm.

(October 2021, IERE Central Office)xii

Executive Summary

xiii
June 2022