Journal of Human Security | 2020 | Volume 16 | Issue 1 | Pages 53–57
DOI: 10.12924/johs2020.16010053
ISSN: 1835–3800

Journal of
Human Security

Editorial

Plagues, Pandemics, Health Security, and the War on Nature
Colin D. Butler
The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Corresponding author: colin.butler@anu.edu.au
Published: 18 December 2020

Abstract: This editorial presents a brief review of pandemics from antiquity to COVID-19. Although alllarge-scale epidemic diseases (“pandemics”) can be considered ecological “checks” on human population
size, and although COVID-19 is the biggest such pandemic since HIV/AIDS emerged it is not likely toapproach the deathtoll of earlier pandemics, such as the plague. There are two major hypotheses to explain
the origin of COVID-19. One is the “natural origin” hypothesis, the other is that it might have escaped froma laboratory, with its origin subsequently hidden. Although most scientists support the natural origin idea
the other cannot yet be dismissed. Evidence for each hypothesis is presented. If the first theory is correctthen it is a powerful warning, from nature, that our species is running a great risk. If the second theory is
proven then it should be considered an equally powerful, indeed frightening, signal that we are in danger,from hubris as much as from ignorance. More pandemics are inevitable, but their severity can be reduced
by greater transparency, international co-operation, and retreat from planetary boundaries.
Keywords: bats, China; COVID-19; ecology; health; limits; medical history; pandemics; security.

Human health depends on many forms of security, mostobviously sufficient quantity and quality of air, water, foodand shelter. Less well recognised, humans also need social connectivity [1]. Our species also seeks freedom fromdevastating infectious diseases, which have periodicallyplagued civilisations for so long (over 2000 years) thathumans may share a collective, usually sub-conscious,
apprehension of epidemics [2].
The word “plague”, is, today, mostly associated with thedisease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the causalorganism (for which antibiotics are today effective) for theBlack Death and the Justinian plague. In antiquity, plague
was a generic name for any pestilence. The viral diseasesmallpox (which probably was passed to humans from cattle) may have caused the Antonine plague that infected
Romans in the reign of Marcus Aurelius.
From the 6th to the 8th centuries a series of plague outbreaks, generally now named after the emperor Justinian,

weakened the Byzantine empire and helped the spread ofIslam, as nomadic Arab tribes, moving on desert or semidesert territories, “succeeded in escaping the contagion
more easily”. Estimates of its death toll range from 25 to
100 million people, localised to Europe and the Mediterranean region [3].
Civilizations do not decline purely because of disease;climate change, undernutrition and invasions are importantco-factors. It is estimated that, almost seven hundred years
ago (1348-50), the Black Death killed over one third of the
population of Western Europe, and up to 100 million globally, including in Africa and China. Its mortality in Europe
appears to have been worsened by preceding decades ofundernutrition, as the climate cooled following the end of
the Medieval Warm Period. The Great European famine(1315-17) was compounded by a devastating viral diseasein cattle, probably rinderpest, which killed over half the cows
in England (1319-20), creating in England a scarcity of milkc 2020 by the authors; licensee Librello, Switzerland. This open access article was publishedunder a Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

librellothat lasted until at least 1332 [4].
Starting in the 15th century, the violent conquest of
the so-called New World was facilitated by a complex
of diseases, including measles, malaria, smallpox andyellow fever, introduced to populations with no immunity.
Smallpox was repeatedly spread to some American tribesby “gifts” of contaminated blankets. The deathtoll from
infections brought to the Americas was lower than fromthe Black Death, but was far more devastating, killing as
many as 80-95% of the Indigenous peoples within 150
years of invasion [5]. Only a century ago, in less than
5 years (1917-1921), “Spanish” influenza killed approximately as many people as the Black Death, though asmaller fraction of what was by then a much larger global
population, about two billion.
But fear of infectious diseases abated in recent decades,
at least for the most privileged fraction of the global population. Positive feedback loops, whose elements include
advances in science and technology, public hygiene, improved nutrition and the burning of vast quantities of fossil
fuel generated a false sense of security. WH Stewart, appointed US Surgeon General in 1965, is reputed to havestated “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases,
and declare the war against pestilence won.” It is less wellknown that this qualifies as an urban myth [6]. Nevertheless,this statement was, for over a decade, considered plausible.
The spell was fractured by the emergence of HIV/AIDS, apandemic virus generally thought to have been originallytransmitted to humans from contact with “bushmeat” (probably a primate) in the African forest [7]. But, once the causes
ongoing of HIV/AIDS transmission were understood, fearof it faded, at least for populations with access to healthliteracy and effective anti-viral medication.
1. COVID-19 and Other Recently Discovered
Zoonoses
Zoonoses (defined here as pathogens that have spreadfrom other animal species to humans) recognised in thelast 70 years cause diseases including Ebola, Human
Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Lassa, Marburg, Nipah,
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), as well as
COVID-19, whose causal agent is the virus named SARSCoV-2. Compared to historic pestilences, the global death
toll of COVID-19, though now over a million, is minor. Unlike previous plagues, COVID-19 has emerged in an ageof vaccines, antibiotics, and sophisticated epidemiology.
But, without a vaccine, COVID-19 seems likely to become
endemic, posing a perennial threat, not only to the elderly
and people with pre-existing conditions, but to younger
people who risk developing chronic manifestations, including cardiac, renal and neurological effects.
There is great concern, some of it overstated, thatzoonotic pathogens have global pandemic potential. For
example, all of the pathogens mentioned above, otherthan HIV, are listed by the World Health Organization(WHO) as priority diseases, claimed to “pose the greatest public health risk due to their epidemic potential
and/or whether there is no or insufficient countermeasures” [8]. However, of this WHO list, only COVID-19
and MERS are known to be transmitted by asymptomaticpatients, and of these, only COVID-19 is easily transmitted by aerosols. The other zoonoses in this list arehighly contagious and have high mortality but are lessproblematic from a public health perspective because,with proper barrier nursing and strict infection control,
they “burn out” [9]. Note, however, that before SARS
was brought under control almost 8,000 people were
infected, of whom about 800 died.
COVID-19 causes justifiable fear not only because it has
no vaccine and no proven treatment (yet), but also because
it shares, with influenza, HIV/AIDS and a small number ofother pathogens a “stealth” capacity, enabling it to spreadfrom people who are either completely asymptomatic, or
whose infections may be hidden to others. This makes
it far harder to control than other newly discovered viral
zoonoses, including SARS and Nipah virus [9].
Apart from HIV/AIDS, historical plagues long precede
the contemporary global crisis, which is marked by extreme
stratification, plummeting biodiversity and worsening climate change. Two planetary boundaries have already been
exceeded. It may thus not be accurate to attribute devastating infectious diseases solely, or even mostly, to the “waron nature”, the plundering of planetary resources for the
alleged benefit of one species, humans [10]. On the other
hand, zoonoses have only affected humans in significant
numbers since plant and animal domestication and othermanifestations of human ingenuity that enabled densely
inhabited human settlements. While most experts date thebeginning of the Anthropocene to the 18th century or later,
Ruddiman and his colleagues have long argued for a muchearlier date, perhaps 7,000 years ago [11]. All major infectious diseases that have affected humans have not only
occurred in this period, in a time when humans have increasingly transformed nature, but also laboratory ingenuity,
though not necessarily laboratory wisdom [7,12].
2. The Natural Origin Theory for the Emergence of
SARS and COVID-19
There are two major hypotheses to explain the origin of
COVID-19. One is the “natural origin” hypothesis, the otheris that it might have escaped from a laboratory, with its
origin subsequently hidden.
Most recently recognised zoonoses have been facilitated by factors associated either with falling biodiversity or
intensive farming, especially of chickens and pigs. These
ecological determinants include deforestation, and the hunting, slaughtering, smuggling, trading and farming of wild
animals, from chimpanzees to pangolins and civet cats. Climate change may also be an element, such as via heatwaves and other forms of stress, including pregnancy andpoor nutrition, that might increase viral “spillover” from bats54

and rodents to other species [13].
Social factors, especially poverty and exploitation, arealso relevant. High population density, where many people share a single dwelling, is an important risk factor, as
is the common practice of a single shared toilet for manyslum dwellers, such as in India. Crowded public transport
is a setting for COVID-19 transmission. On the other hand,enormous, densely packed cities may not necessarily be atvery high risk, if housing is of sufficient standard and there
are alternatives for commuting, such as the internet.
The average level of wealth and the degree of stratification are also important. A highly egalitarian population
where most people are poor does not provide protection,and is likely at greater threat than a stratified population with high average wealth. However, many cities arehighly stratified, with people living in pockets of affluence
alongside poverty and human exploitation. Away fromthe cities, rural poverty not only helps to motivate legal
activities such as participating in deforestation, but illegal
acts such as participating in wildlife trafficking.
Bats are the reservoir species for many recently discovered viral zoonoses, responsible for diseases including
SARS, COVID-19, Nipah and Ebola. The coronavirus thatcauses SARS is widely considered to have crossed into
human populations (in 2002) via the farming of civet cats
(and possibly other “exotic” species, such as bamboo rats)
in southern China. But for 17 years, despite monitoring andanxiety, nothing quite like SARS emerged again, until late2019 when an unusual cluster of pneumonia cases, now
known as COVID-19, was detected in the central Chinesecity of Wuhan. A new strain of coronavirus was rapidly
identified by staff at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV),
one of China’s most prestigious viral research laboratories.
It was, soon after, named SARS-CoV-2.
SARS-CoV-2 is generally thought to have evolved and tohave entered the human population in a way similar to thecausal organism for SARS. Consistent with this hypothesis,
the location of the first cases in Wuhan was identified asassociated with a local market, where many live animals,different species, were held in close proximity for sale [14].
Several early articles speculated that the bridging
species (between bats and humans) was a pangolin, oneof the world’s most frequently traded mammals, mostly illegally, used not only for food but for its alleged medicinal
value. It initially seemed plausible that viruses in infectedpangolins might have had opportunities to exchange genetic material en route to China, in cages transported bysmugglers, where the secretions and breath of stressed,
frightened animals, perhaps from different origins, and evenof different species, may mix. Alternatively, a new strain
could have emerged in a farm, where animals such as
civet cats are bred in captivity, also in crowded conditions.
However, there is an emerging consensus that the coronaviruses to date identified in pangolins are not sufficiently
close to SARS-CoV-2 to be the source, despite intensive
searching [15]. Despite intense effort, the natural origin
hypothesis has not yet been further strengthened.

3. An Alternative Hypothesis for COVID-19:
Laboratory Escape
Although most scientists support the natural origin hypothesis an alternative theory for the origin of COVID-19 is slowly
gaining interest. It has always been striking that a disease
like SARS would emerge in Wuhan, a city more than athousand kilometres north of tropical Yunnan, where there
are larger bat populations and identified natural sources ofcoronaviruses. However, one plausible route could be via
infected animals imported into Wuhan, bringing the virus
along. WIV researchers originally asserted that COVID-19
entered humans in a market offering seafood and otheranimals in Wuhan, which was promptly closed for cleaning
and investigation.
Curiously, however, samples from living animals in themarket (such as of faecal material or swabs) were reportedly not taken. Dr Shi Zhengli, who heads a group thatstudies bat coronaviruses at the WIV, wrote, in a series of
responses to the journal Science, that only frozen samples
of animals had been taken from the market, and that nocoronaviral RNA had been found in them [16]. More recently, the head of the Chinese Centre for Diseases Control(CDC) denied the fish market as the source, adding that“the novel coronavirus had existed long before” [17].
Many self-published essays on the internet have disputed the natural origin hypothesis. Most such essays suggest that it instead accidentally escaped from the WIV, after
either being manipulated in the laboratory, or perhaps because it was already archived there, reaching the wider population after infecting a researcher. The laboratory escapeargument is also considered plausible by the U.S. government which, in addition, has suspended its funding of the
EcoHealth Alliance [18] which has reportedly undertaken“gain of function” viral research in China [19].
Circumstantial evidence gives plausibility to this alternative hypothesis. Suspicion is heightened by the opacity andpower of the Chinese Communist Party, its almost complete
suppression of free speech, and the increasing sense it
conveys of feeling besieged by hostile forces. The motherof Dr. Li-Meng Yan,a scientist currently in hiding after being
granted asylum in the U.S. (after alleging that SARS-CoV-2
was derived from a laboratory), is reported to have beendetained by Chinese authorities [20]. Such evidence may
seem thin, but it is widely known that a deceased Chinese
doctor’s attempts to warn of the pandemic were originallysuppressed [20]. It also well accepted that Chinese authorities initially attempted to disguise the outbreak.
The provenance of the closest known betacoronavirus
to SARS-CoV-2 (a variant called RaTG13, which is 96%
similar, meaning that the two strains may share a common
ancestor that diverged 20 to 50 years ago) is also curious.
Evidence for RaTG13 was found in material collected between 2012 and 2015 from a mine cave near Tongguan
town, in Mojiang County, Yunnan, and taken from there to
the WIV [21]. Six miners, of whom 3 died, had worked
in this mine in 2012, removing bat guano. The cause of55

their respiratory illness was hypothesised by the medical
team treating them as a viral and fungal co-infection [22,23].
This information, reported in a thesis, was scarcely known
outside China until revealed in 2020 by activists and thenin a single (to date) peer reviewed paper [23]. The thesis
also revealed that several of these cases of pneumonia had
been brought to the attention of Zhong Nanshan, one of themost senior doctors in China.
The provenance of RaTG13 is striking for several reasons. Firstly, the link between the mine-associated human illnesses and RaTG13 was not officially disclosed until November 17, 2020, in an addendum written by WIVassociated investigators, published in Nature [21], over ninemonths after the original report of RaTG13, also publishedin Nature, on February 3, 2020 [14]. The addendum appeared almost one month after Rahalkar and Bahulikar’s
paper, which not only discussed the Masters thesis, butwhich also speculated that RaTG13 was first found in material sampled from the same cave where the miners had acquired their illness [23]. An earlier paper (published February 2016), also led by WIV researchers, had reported theidentification of viruses sourced in material from the mine
but had also failed to disclose any human illness [24]. Yet,as reported in the addendum, the WIV researchers had
sampled the Mojiang mineshaft specifically because of its
association with miners who had sickened, a fact known to
the WIV in 2012 [21]. These facts demonstrate a reluctanceby WIV researchers, ongoing for almost 5 years, to report(at least in internationally available journals) the association
between an infection with a case fatality rate of 50% andviruses that they had isolated. The timing of their addendum, which ends this silence, may be coincidence, but canalso be interpreted as an attempt to save face, by publishingadditional, highly pertinent information, without apology, butwhen embarrassed by growing awareness of their previous
non-disclosure.
Adding to the fog, a profile of the senior WIV investigator
Dr Shi Zhengli, published in March 2020 in Scientific American (final author for the 2016 and 2020 reports) reveals
knowledge of six mine-associated cases of pneumonia, two(sic) of whom had died [25]. This profile does not precisely
reveal the source for this information, but creates the impression that such information was given to the reporter by
Dr. Shi herself. The report states that “Shi’s team had beencalled in to investigate the virus profile of a mineshaft in
Yunnan’s mountainous Mojiang County ... where six miners
suffered from pneumonia like diseases (two of them died).
After sampling the cave for a year the researchers discovered a diverse group of coronaviruses in six bat species.”
The profile also states “although the fungus turned out
to be the pathogen that had sickened the miners”. This

contradicts not only the Masters thesis (which finds that
fungal co-infection may have been possible) but also theaddendum for which Shi is again final (senior) author whichstates “We suspected that the patients had been infectedby an unknown virus” [21]. In a longer interview with Shi,
conducted by correspondence and published in Science inJuly 2020, she is asked “What do you think of the theory
that infected people who lived near mines were the index
cases and that they travelled to Wuhan?” Shi answers “Iguess you are referring to the bat cave in Tongguan town
in Mojiang county of Yunnan Province. To date, none of
nearby residents is infected with coronaviruses” [16]. Thisanswer also seems disingenuous.
A high-level panel, initiated by WHO, but stated as acting independently, has been formed to investigate the response to the pandemic. Co-chaired by Nobel Laureate
Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark, an advance party of the panel is reported
to have spent three weeks in Beijing, in August 2020, but
without visiting Wuhan, where the outbreak started. WHO
has stated that this first visit is to prepare for a subsequent,larger mission (13 people including Dr Zhong Nanshan).
However, WHO was also reported as being vague in response to being asked if this larger task force would evenvisit Wuhan [26]. Such procrastination means the trail will
be even colder, and casts further doubt on the willingness
and capacity of both WHO and the Chinese authorities to
uncover the true cause of the outbreak.
4. Conclusions
The proximal origin of COVID-19 is unclear, other than its
distal origin in a bat. The natural origin and the laboratory
associated theories remain plausible, not only for COVID19, but even for HIV/AIDS [7]. If the first theory is correctthen it is a powerful warning, from nature, that our species
is running a great risk. If the second theories are proven(for either or both pandemics) then it or they should be considered an equally powerful, indeed frightening, signal that
we are in danger, from hubris as much as from ignorance.
In either case, each hypothesis for the origin of COVID19 is related to our evolving planetary crisis. More pandemics are inevitable, but their severity can be reduced bygreater transparency [27], international co-operation, andretreat from planetary boundaries.
Acknowledgements
The author wishes to thank Ro McFarlane, Alex Lautensach
and BillyBostickson.

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