China
Ex-post monitoring for ODA loan projects“Beijing Subway Construction Project &Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II”
Evaluator: Momota Kenji (IC Net Limited)
Field Survey: February 2008
1. Outline of the project and Japan’s ODA loan

Location of the project

Jianguomen station

1.1 Purpose of the project
The purpose is to alleviate road traffic jams by constructing a subway along Changanjie, themain street of Beijing that is heavily congested, thereby contributing to the urban development of
the areas along the subway.
1.2 Outline of the loan agreement
Loan Amount/Disbursed Amount

Beijing Subway Construction Project (1)2,510

million yen/2,506 million yen

Beijing Subway Construction Project (2)1,490 million yen/1,489 million yen
Beijing Subway Construction Project, Phase II (1)3,281 million yen /3,281 million yen
Beijing Subway Construction Project, Phase II (2)6,235 million yen /6,178 million yen
Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II (3)3,819 million yen /3,590 million yen
Beijing Subway Construction Project, Phase II (4)2,343 million yen /2,140 million yen
Date of Loan Agreement/

Beijing Subway Construction Project (1)Final Disbursement Date

August 1988 / August 1995
Beijing Subway Construction Project (2)1May 1989 / May 1997
Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II (1)October 1991 / November 1996
Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II (2)October 1992 / November 2000
Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II (3)August 1993 / October 2000
Beijing Subway Construction Project Phase II (4)January 1995 / May 2001
Ex-post Evaluation

Fiscal 2002

Executing Agency

Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Co., Ltd.

Main Contractors

Constructions

IndustriellesdelaMediterranee(France), China International Trust & Investment
Corp.

(China),Westinghouse

Signals

Limited(England)Consultant Services

None

1.3 Background and reason for conducting ex-post monitoring study
According to the ex-post evaluation carried out in fiscal 2002, the number of passengers on the
subway Route 1 which had been built under this project was approximately 160 million persons per
year.

The feasibility study conducted by the Chinese government projected that the demand would

reach approximately 590 million people two years after the opening of the subway (in 1995) andabout 720 million people in 2005. Thus, the discrepancy between the estimate and the actual
number was immense.

In order to reconfirm the effect of the project after the time of ex-post

evaluation, we carried out this field study.

In this report we outline our field study, review its

results per item, and draw conclusions.
New subway routes have been developed in Beijing one after another to connect the outskirts tothe heart of Beijing after the construction of Route 1 under this project.

They include, for instance,

Batong Line which is a suburban line and routes 5 and 10 which connect to the central parts ofBeijing from north to south.
Changanjie.

Metro Route 1 built under this project runs from east to west along

It serves the convenience of local residents as a mode of public transport available forthem in conjunction with the expansion of routes that connect to the outskirts or the neighboring
districts.

In order to evaluate correctly the effect of this project (Route 1) that constitutes a part ofBeijing’s subway network, we carried out an overall evaluation based on our belief that it would be
essential to understand the impacts given by the whole metro network on the traffic conditions ofBeijing.

2

Figure 1: Subway network of Beijing (2008)(Source) New Media of Japan and China Co., Ltd. / Beijing International Media Center
2. Findings of the monitoring
2.1 Effectiveness
Route 1 has been amply used, and the effect to induce people from road transport services suchas bus has been confirmed.

It is believed that its construction has given effect to thealleviation of traffic jams to a certain extent.

The punctuality and time-shortening effect of the

subway have been maintained, whereby the significance of the subway has no doubt increased
as a mode of public transport.
2.1.1 Use of subways
2.1.1.1 Alleviation of traffic congestions(1) Use of each mode of main transport in Beijing
The ex-post evaluation report did not discuss any effect quantitatively on the alleviation of
traffic jam, but assessed a potential effect on alleviating traffic congestions based on the findings ofa questionnaire survey carried out on users concerning the effect to induce bus users to the subway.
In this field survey, we appraised the effect based on the use of the main modes of transport inaddition to the above viewpoint.
The following Table 1 indicates changes in the proportions of public transport users and of3

bicycle and personal car users.
2000 to 2005.

As can be seen, bicycle users drastically decreased in number from

Obviously many of them shifted to driving their own cars, and others began to use

public transport services.
Table 1: Main modes of public transport in Beijing
2000
2005
Public transport (metro, bus)
26.5%
29.8% (+3.3%)
Personal car
23.2%
29.8% (+6.6%)
30.3% (-8.2%)
Bicycle38.5%
10.1%(-1.7%)
Others
11.8%(Source)

Excerpted from the findings of the third survey on transport in Beijing

On the other hand, Table 2 shows the traffic volume of each mode of transport.
in the following table cover the users of all subway lines.

The metro users

As can be seen, they have been increasing

steadily in number, and in all likelihood the expansion of the subway network such as Routes 5 and 10
is an important factor for this increase.

Under the circumstances in which no big changes can beobserved in the traffic volume of the main modes of public transport, the proportion of subway users
increased from 8.7% in 2002 to 14.4% in 2006.
Table 2: Change in traffic volume by mode of (public) transport
Item
Total volume of passenger
transport

2002

2003

(In one hundred million persons)
2004
2005
2006
20071

55.20

47.84

56.85

58.98

53.22

55.2

Bus users (including street car)

43.46

43.91
1.00

44.98
0.70

42.30

0.93

37.10
0.84

39.79

Micro-bus

Subways
4.80
4.72
6.06
6.80
7.68
6.5
Subway built under this
2.20
2.08
2.55
2.79
n.a
n.a
project (Route 1)
Taxi
5.98
5.18
5.88
6.5
6.4
6.4
(Source) Data for 2001~05 are taken from the Beijing’s Transportation Commission and data for 2006
~ 07 are taken from the official bulletin of the City of Beijing on National Economy and Social
Development Statistics.
(Note) In 2003 the overall traffic volume declined due to an outbreak of SARS.
According to the findings of a beneficiary survey carried out on approximately 400 subway users(to be discussed in 2.1.2), roughly 70% of the users have shifted from public busses and bicycles tosubways.

Thus, it can be inferred that some segments of former users of road transport modes suchas bus began to use subways.

1

The data for FY2007 are provisional.

Hence, the statistics for 2006 were used in this comparison.

4

(2) Road traffic volume on Changanjie
The cross-sectional traffic volume2 of Changanjie (in the central area of Beijing) that runs on thesurface under which the section of the subway constructed under this project runs is shown in thefollowing table.

Compared this with the traffic volume at the time of ex-post evaluation, there is adecrease of 21%.

Against the backdrop, lie political measures such as limiting bicycle riding into thecentral parts of Beijing.

It is difficult to assess the extent to which this project has directly

contributed.
Table 3: Cross-sectional traffic volume on Changanjie(In one thousand persons)
2002
2005
Cross-sectional traffic
120,773
95,847(-21%)
volume(Source: Annual Report on the Transport Development of Beijing

Figure 1: Peak-hour traffic jams
In the evaluation for this monitoring survey we do not measure quantitatively the effect of the
project on alleviation of traffic jams.

However, as stated in (1), a certain number of road users (suchas bicyclers) have shifted to public transport services, and in particular, the number of subway users
has been on the increase in proportion.

The findings of the beneficiary survey also endorse this trend.

If the subway network had not been developed, the passengers of subways would have used any of theland transport modes such as personal cars.

In the line of this reasoning, it is safely argued that the

subway network developed through this project has yielded some effect to bring aggravation of traffic
congestions in Beijing under control.
2.1.1.2 Volume of passenger transport(1) Frequency of train services and train-interval during peak hours
The ex-post evaluation report affirmed a steady improvement in the number of train services inRoute 1.
2

Since the time of ex-post evaluation, the number of train services has increased further

It is a traffic volume at a cross-section added by upstream and downstream traffic volumes at a given point of a street.

5indeed, and the situation of train operations is satisfactory.
Table 4: The number of train services and operation interval during peak hours
At the time of ex-post evaluation
1992
The number of services(average
number/day)

380
1992

1993-1999
380
1993~1995

2000
432
1996~2001

4
4
3
Interval during peak hours (min./peakhour)(Source) Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Co., Ltd.
(Note) 1992: Began operation between Fuxingmen～Xidan / 2000: The entire line was opened
between Fuxingmen and Sihuidong
At the time of ex-post monitoring
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Route 1
The number of services per
434
434
434
452
562
day
Interval (min.) in peak hours
3
3
3
3
2.5
Interval (min.) in off-peak
5-12
5-12
5-12
5-10
5-8
hours
As reference: Route 2
The number of services per
364
367
383
395
451
day
Interval (min.) in peak hours
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3
Interval (min.) in off-peak
6-15
5-12
5-11
5-11
4-10
hours
(Source) Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Co., Ltd. / (Note) The executing agency
defines that the peak hours are from 7 to 9 in the morning and from 17 to 19 in
the evening.
In particular, the frequency of train services greatly increased and the interval between trains
became shorter in 2007.

This is because Beijing Mass Transit Railroad Operation Co., Ltd.3, theexecuting agency, increased the number of train services and progressively shortened the intervals
between trains in response to a growing demand for the overall subway network in conjunction withthe opening of Route 5 that connects to Route 1.

An indicator to show the punctuality of subway

train services has not been developed yet, but the executing agency claims that the accuracy of the
train intervals has been maintained at a high level.

We actually measured the intervals between

trains during the time of this field survey and did not observe any long delay both during peak hours
and during off-peak hours.

The beneficiary survey, which will be discussed later, has revealed thatmany subway users evaluate the punctuality of subway services.

Thus, it is assumed thatpunctuality is kept at a high level.

3

The name was Beijing Metro Corporation at the time of appraisal. The present executing agency is Beijing Mass
Transit Railway Operation Co., Ltd., which was separated from the former as an independent corporation.

6

(2) Volume of passenger transport
1) Present volume of passenger transport
Beijing Mass Transit Railroad Operation Co., Ltd. projected that the number of Route 1 users
would be 221 million people in 2002.

The number increased to 279 million people in 2005.

Thus, an upward trend continues.
Table 5: Transition in the number of subway passengers（In 100
million people）
2002
2003
2004
2005
1) All subway network
4.80
4.72
6.06
6.80
2) Route 1 (Project target sections)
Estimate at the time of
n.a
n.a
n.a
7.7
appraisal
Actual figures
2.20
2.08
2.55
2.79
4
(Source) Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Co., Ltd.

2006
7.68

2007
6.54

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

The present number, 279 million people, has not reached the number estimated at the time of
ex-post evaluation.

However, we believe that it is not meaningful to use the estimate in ourcomparison, because there is a possibility that the estimate itself is not appropriate.

Instead, we

evaluate the use of Route 1 by comparing the number of Route 1 passengers with the number ofpassengers of subway lines under the control of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government that have asimilar scale and length.
Table 6 Comparison with the passengers of Tokyo’s subway
Route
Route 1 (2005)
Toei Asakusa Line（2006)
Toei Mita Line（2006)
Toei Shinjuku Line
（2006)
Toei Oedo Line （2006)(In one thousand persons)Business
No. ofkilometer (km)passengers
38
279,000
18.3
218,056
26.5
192,63923.5

222,15640.7

262,859(Source): Bureau of Transportation, Tokyo Metropolitan Government
As is self-explanatory, the number of passengers of Route 1 has already exceeded that of
Oedo-line that is the closest in terms of length. As for the peak-hour congestion rate, accurate
statistics are not available.

However, the executing agency projects that it is already 130~140%5.

4

The number of Rout 1 passengers means the number of passengers for the entire line. It is not the number obtained by
the following formula: “Transportation volume (passenger kilometers) = the number of passengers carried during a year
being multiplied by mileage.”
5
The Beijing Mass Transit Operation Co., Ltd. (the executing agency) states that it has not developed an accurate
indicator of the congestion rate. The above data are based on visual estimating by station attendants (on the condition

7

That is, it has exceeded the limit number.

At the time of this field survey, the evaluator alsovisually inspected that the conditions of peak-hour congestions can be compared with thecongestions in the metropolitan area in Japan.

Thus, it can be argued that the use of Route 1 has

been expanding at a good pace even in comparison with similar urban railroads.
As for the expansion of subway users in the future, an expert6 who accompanied our fieldsurvey expressed the following views.
1. Route 1 (constructed under this project) runs from east to west in the central parts of Beijing.
That is, its full use is premised upon connection to the northern and southern districts that havehigh demand in order for the Route l to be used by commuters and students.

In the future, it isexpected that the number of passengers of Route 1 will increase in tune with the opening ofthese lines.
2. It is expected that the further expansion of the route (related to 1) will bring about an effect tostimulate potential demand in the areas that have no access to subway stations in theneighborhoods or no bus services to go to subway stations.
In addition, it is deemed that the following measures taken by the executing agency will increase
the number of subway users in the future.
1. Since October 2007, the service has been improved, for instance, by introducing a uniform faresystem for the entire route of subways (an actual cutback to 2 CNY) and by introducing an IC
card system.
2. The aggregate number of subway users for the routes from 4 to 13 that are now underconstruction is estimated at over 815 million people in 2010.

It is inferred that the demand forRoute 1 will be expanded as a mode of trunk public transport services in the central Beijing
when these routes are developed.
3. In order to lessen traffic congestions which are getting worse in conjunction with the growth of
the number of persons who own cars, the executing agency has been trying to improve access to
Route 5 that has a particularly high demand by introducing, for instance, park-and-ride7 system
and a through-fare with the city route bus.
(3) Shortened travel time
In this field survey, we actually measured the time required for travelling during peak hours andoff-peak hours for a section of Route 1, i.e. between Xidan station and Sihuidong station, separately bybus, by taxi and by subway.8
that design capacity = 8 persons/1 m2).
The expert is Assistant Professor Lee of Beijing Normal University.
7
It is a system in which a person parks his/her car in a parking lot in the outskirts of the city and takes a public
transportation system such as train and bus to the city center, thereby alleviating traffic jams in the central area of thecity. In Beijing a measure has been taken to give a special discount on the parking fee to subway users.
8
Sihuidong is located at the eastern end of Route 1 and serves as the transfer point from the Batong Line. Xidan is thestation next to Tiananmen Station. This section covers an area from the residential districts in the eastern part of6

8

Table 7: Travel time by major transportation modes
OutbouXidan→Sihuidong
Peak hours(7-9)
Other hoursnd
1 Route bus
32 min.(+6 min.) 38 min.(+14 min.)2 Taxi27 min.(+3 min.)28 min.(+4 min.)3 Subway
24 min.
24 Min.
InbounSihuidong→Xidan
Peak hours(7-9)
Off-peak hoursd1 Route bus
44 min.(+20 min.)34 min. (+10 min.)2 Taxi55 min.(+31 min.)44 min.(+20 min.)3 Subway
24 min.
24 min.
(Note) The figure in parentheses indicates a comparison with the travel time by subway.
All comparisons indicate that the travel time by subway is much shorter than the travel times byother modes of road transport.

Thus, the subway still holds a greater advantage in terms of thetravel time.

The questionnaire survey carried out on the users (discussed in 2.1.2) also endorses

this result.

That is, 87% of the users highly evaluate the effect of shortening travel time from thearea of a station to the area of another station that has been brought about by subways in comparison
with the modes of transport that they had used before.
2.1.2

Findings of the subway user survey

In the ex-post evaluation, a satisfaction survey was carried out by questionnaire on subway
users.9

The findings indicate that the level of overall satisfaction has reached 89% (very satisfied

10% and satisfied 79%).

The users enumerated the shortened travel time, a high degree of

convenience, and safety as main factors for their satisfaction, whereas they enumerated high subway
fares and long distance from the point of departure/destination to a subway station as factors fortheir dissatisfaction.

During this field survey we also carried out a questionnaire survey in thesame manner to confirm changes after the time of ex-post evaluation (in 2002).10

The following

table shows its findings.

Beijing to the places of work. The ex-post evaluation report states that the travel time measured at that time was 23
minutes by subway and about 30 minutes by bus during off-peak hours and more than one hour during peak hours.
9
The questionnaire survey was carried out under a random sampling method at three stations including Jianguomen in
November 2002. The number of effective respondents was 396.
10 The survey was conducted at Jianguomen and at Guomao in February 2008. The number of effective respondents was
343.

9Table 8: Findings of the beneficiary survey
Response

Question
1.Mode of transport
before the use of Route bus
subway67.3%
2.How to get the Personal
closest station (for car
both ways)

4.1%
3.Reason for the use Shorterof the subway
travel time
63.8%
4.Satisfaction levelVerysatisfied

19.0%
5.Comparison with Shorter
former travel times
87.2%
~10
6.Shortned timeminutes
22.2%
7.FareToo high
8.16%

Taxi

Personalcar

Bicycle

9.9%

9.9%

13.4%

Route bus

BicycleOn foot

49.6%
Punctualit
y
48.1%

4.1%
Convenie
nce
35.3%

42.7%
Economy18.4%

Satisfied

Neither

Dissatisf
ied

57.1%
No
change
10.5%

10.5%

12.2%

~20 min.

~30 min.

~1 hour

36.4%
Proper
84.26%

26.2%
Low
7.0%

2.9%

Safety17.8%
Verydissatisfi
ed
1.2%

Convenience
7.6%

Longer
1.7%

Responses to each question are summarized below.
1) Question 1: Approximately 70% of subway users have shifted from a public bus.

Thus, theresult endorses the purpose of this project, that is, to induce people from road transport services.
2) Question 2: Like at the time of ex-post evaluation, a nearly half of the respondents take a bus to
go to their closest subway stations.

Notable is that a number of users take a feeder-bus to go totheir subway stations.
3) Question 3: Like at the time of ex-post evaluation, many respondents’ opinions were especiallymarked by the punctuality of the subway and shorter travel times as main reasons for their shift
from the conventional transport modes to the subway.
4) Question 411: As for the services, approximately 76% of respondents answered that they weresatisfied, thus maintaining a high level of satisfaction.

The reasons are shorter travel times andpunctuality compared to the modes of transport used in former days.
5) Question 5 & 6: About 90% of the respondents recognize the effect of shorter travel time, which
endorses the advantage of the subway in travel time over land transport systems.
6) Question 7: In the survey at the time of ex-post evaluation, many respondents considered thatthe fare was too high, whereas in this survey 84% of the respondents answered that it wasappropriate.

In all likelihood, this is due to the uniform fare system (2 CNY) introduced in

October 2007.

11

On the other hand, there were many opinions as to a small number of subway routes (a small area served by subways)
and a demand for alleviation of peak-hour congestions, as free remarks.

10