Climate Change Research and Satellite Observation

Gen Inoue
Chief Scientist of GOSAT
Professor, Research Institute of Human and Nature
2008/12/9

1Contents
 Global Warming is in progress. What happens infuture?
 Do the greenhouse gases continue to grow?
 What kinds of GHG observations are in process?
i. Ocean sink
ii. Forest carbon budget
iii.Atmospheric observation
iv.Future observation: Satellite

CO2 Observation at Mauna Loa ignited
the Climate Change Research

Dr. KeelingSurface air temperature

NIES, Frontier RC, CCRSSqueeze of Glaciersin the Himalaya Mountains1978
The tail of AX010 Glacier in Nepal
has retreated by 183m in the period
from 1978 (upper photo) to 2004
(lower photo): 7 m/yr.
The Himalaya glaciers are coveredby sand and stones, and the solar
radiation is absorbed efficiently
compared with the Alps glaciers. But
it is protected by fresh snow cover insummer. However, the precipitationis changing from snow to rain due tothe Global Warming in recent years.
This is the reason why theretreatment of the Himalaya glacier isso quick.
From Prof. Fujita, Nagoya-univ.

2004Change of minimum temperaturein Northern Eurasia (℃/yr)
1965～1995

凍土の融解深度(cm)6Permafrost Institute, RAS

Change of First Snow Cover Date on
Mt.Fuji and Mt.Tateyama
Oct. 26
Oct. 16
Oct. 06
Sep. 26
Sep. 16
Sep. 06

Mt.Fuji

Mt.Tateyama

Aug. 27

20年で9日遅くなっている

From JMA
7

North-shift of apple production
area in Japan

Present

In 2060’s

SuitableToo Hot
Too Cold

Shift of suitable land for Apple production(Suitable average temperature is in the range of 7 ～ 13 ℃）
8Fishery is a hunting business
Little is know how the habitat of fish will change due toGlobal Warming.
Temperature change
Circulation change ⇒ nutrient ⇒ food ⇒ food-chain⇒ growth rate
Change ofwandering routPresentWarming

Concentration of
Chlorophyll during
the spring bloom

Concentration of
Chlorophyll during
the spring bloom

hatcheryWarming
Ocean current

Swimming speed

Swimming speed

hatchery

Ocean current

9

フロンティア研究センター

Ocean and Frost Sink continue?
AtmosphericIncrease

Fossil fuel= consumption = 0.6 x

Forest sink Deforestation-Ocean Sink

Fossil fuelconsumption
Why the annual increase
rate is so variable
although the fossil
emission does not?

What is the future rate if thisvariability is due to theclimate variability?

(Hansen and ato, PNAS, 101, 16109 2004.)

Oil PeakEnergy supply (past and future)
石油換算でメガトン

Oil Sand and Methane
Hydrate are unknown factors

Ocean sink is due to theconcentration difference.

Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm)

In past, CO2 dissolved in ocean and atmospheric CO2 were in equilibrium.
Atmospheric CO2 is higher due to the anthropogenic emission, and CO2
continues to dissolve into ocean to reduce the concentration difference.

atmospheric

35-40 ppmoceanicYear

気象庁

Where carbon dioxide sinks?

Sink:in high latitude
Source: in low latitude

Data coverage is sparce insouthern ocean

Takahashi et al., 2000.

Annual change of carbon budget
In 2000-2006

Source

7.6
Deforestation

1.5

Atmospheric

4.1

Sink

CO2 Budget (Pg C y-1)

Fossil fuelForest-sink

2.8
Oceansink

2.2
PgC/yrYear
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNASCarbon budgets in compartments

LeavesSoil梁、井上Sampling/Analysis

StemCarbon Budget over forest

SonicAnemometer
Conc.
timeOpen type
CO2 Sensor
CO2 Sensor

Flux (total)= ∫ C(t) v(t) dt

上向きの風Budget among compartments
Flux measurement(NEP) = 1.8~5.0 tC ha-1 yr-1
Photo-synthesis
Photo(13.2~16.0 tC ha-1 )Leaf synthesis
respiration(1.1 tC ha-1)
Stand respiration(0.7 tC ha-1）

Photo-synthesis
Leafrespiration Soilby floor vegetation
Respiration
Sand respiration
Stock(-0.4 tC ha-1)
Root
Microbial
respiration
respiration

Microbial respiration
Root respiration(4.1 tC ha-1)(5.5-1 tC ha-1)
Soil respiration(9.6 tC ha )梁、井上Flux observation network
Existing
 100 eddy flux tower sites Co-located ecological studies atsome sites.
FLUXNET
CarboEuroflux

Asia Flux

Ameriflux

LBAOzflux

Needed Ensure the continuity ofexisting measurements ofeddy covariance ecosystem
fluxes for at least 10 years
at each site Expand the network inunder-sampled regions andecosystems
undergoing
disturbances Real time data transfer,and to enhance data quality
insurance procedures.
 Upscaling methods

Emission

Prediction of Carbon budget

Sink

LandEmission

Sink

Ocean

Feedback Term

２００５．１０．０９1850today2100

１

From LeQuere (2002)

Temporal and Spatial Scale ofAtmospheric Observation

timecenturies

Forest *Inventories
decadalSoil carbon *One
atm station

Ecologicalsite studies *Interannualseasonal

Remote sensing

Chamber*

Eddy
FluxTowers *Atm Boundary layer
measurements **Groundobservation
network

synoptic

space
1 ha

1 km2

Regional

106 km2* uneven geographic coverage **available as pilot studies onlyContinents

GlobeEvaluation of Sink/sourcefrom Atmospheric Distribution
CO2 Conc.

Decreases when sinkdIncrease when source

FΔCO2w

ΔCO2= F τ / x = F d /w /x

Surface Atmosphere Interaction
Inverse Model Analysis

F: Flux
d: Distance
w: Wind speed
x: Mixing layer height

Atmospheric Distribution

GlobalView
GroundCO2NetworkGCOS
Upper
Air
Network(GUAN)
GCOS Surface Network (GSN)
152Stations
Stations72 Stations
981

2008/12/9

GCOS Secretariat 21 April 1999

28

GCOS Secretariat 26 May 1999

JAL in situ observation
Vertical profile measurement at high frequency and many sites.

CO2 continuous instruments areequipped on five passenger
aircrafts of JAL（Boeing)

Installed near oxygen tanks
in cargo space.

Height distribution of CO2by T.Machida et al

Spectral measurement ofDirect Solar Radiation
The principle of measurement is the same as GOSAT
Advantage;
No disturbance by Aerosol and Cirrus.
Disadvantage: Fixed location
8
CO2 Column Density / 10 molecules/cm

2

5

Sun-tracker

Spectral Analyzer

421

7

326 March 2007
5 April 2007
6 April 2007

524

1
9

10

1112

13

14

15

16

Air Mass25 March 2007

617Local Time in Adelaide

by Ibuki and Kawasaki

CO2 Sonde
Precision is 1 ppm
Target ： σ＝0.3 ppm
410

Altitude (m)400
390+380
370

100m

360
50

100

150200250Time (sec)0.3ppmRadio-sonde+ CO2 Sensor

Carbon dioxide (ppm)by Matsumi and his groupExample of Temperature Measurement

Satellitein 2003
Surface

Remote sensing(Micro-wave)

Balloon Sonde

Small longitudinal gradient of CO2
Variation near the ground contains more
information on emission/sink (<1,000m)

Altitude (m)Water column distribution(Observed by AMSR-E, Aug,Oct. in 2007)

Calculated CO2 column concentrationin March(the correction is made for the surface
altitude)Carbon dioxide (ppm)
1060kg/m2

Atomospheric Observation Methods
TypeLimb Observation Method
Solar Occultation
MethodLimb Emission

Nadir Looking Method

Lidar Method

Near Infrared
Scattering

Thermal Emission

GOSAT(Japan)
OCO（USA）

IMG（ADEOS：1996）
GOSAT (Japan)

A-Scope

From Surface

Above 3km

From Surface

Configuration

Satellites

Sensitive
HeightVerticalResolution
Horizontal
Resolution
Frequency

ILAS（ADEOS1996）
ILAS（ADEOSⅡ：2002）
SOFIS
Above 5 km
Very high（500 m〜2km）

２００３
Above 5 km
High（1 km〜5km）

Low（100km or more）
Very Low

HighLow（more than 10km）

Very high（1 km〜5km)

High（1 km〜10 km）

Very high（1 km）

Day time

HighHighNadir observation by GOSAT
GOSAT

Solar Radiation
666 kmField of view = 10 km
Land Surface Reflection

Sun-glint over ocean

To be launched in Jan. 2009

H-Ⅱa

Near Infrared

Spectral coverage：
2.0 µm band (4,800 ~ 5,200 cm-1)
1.6 µm band (5,800 ~ 6,400 cm-1)
0.76 µm band (12,900 ~ 13,200 cm-1)
Spectral resolution： 0.2 cm-1
Apodization：Norton-Beer (Moderate)

O2 Band

CO2 BandCH4 BandH2O Band

CO2 Bands

Possible error sources
Path radiance fromSurface albedo cirrus and aerosols

Path length variation byland shape changeCirrus cloudAerosols
Water vapor
Surface albedo

Topological Structure

Disturbance by Cirrus

cirrusCirrus observed by GLAS

Wide coverage
Difficult to Identify
Height : 7,000～12,000 m→ Influence to the column abundance seriously

OCO Spatial Sampling Strategy
The OCO spatial sampling strategy has
been designed to provide precise, biasfree estimates of XCO2 on regional scales atmonthly intervals••

Contiguous sampling not needed– Chemical Transport Models infersources and sinks from spatial andtemporal gradients in XCO2
• Have resolutions of 1o to 5o– Winds transport CO2 over large areas
as it is mixed through the column
XCO2 soundings must be collected at highspatial resolution• Maximizes the number of cloud-freesamples in partly cloudy regions• Minimizes errors due to spatial
inhomogeneities within each footprintGOSAT occupies an important position
timecenturies
Forest *Inventories
decadalSoil carbon *One
atm station

Ecologicalsite studies *Interannualseasonal

Remote sensing

Chamber*

Eddy
Flux
Towers *GOSAT
Atm Boundary layer
measurements **Groundobservation
network

synopticspace1 ha

1 km2Regional

106 km2* uneven geographic coverage **available as pilot studies onlyContinents

GlobeRequests from Chief Scientist

1. The improvement of precision and thereduction of systematic biases.
2. Reliable (validated) data; validations at
critical area (including polluted area)
3. Wider application; such as the emission
estimation from point sources
4. International cooperation: Interactive
research cooperation

可能性の高い世界のエネルギー予測
ドイツ水素協会

2007

太陽熱
地熱
バイオマス

地熱発電

太陽熱発電

原子力

太陽電池
石炭
風力
天然ガス

石油

43

Observation platforms, and their
spatial and temporal scales.
TimeAtmospheric Mon.

century

Flax obs. network

dayChamber, Soil obs.

year

GOSAT
How to fill this gap?

hrSpatial
10m

1km

100km

GlobalData Analysis Flow
Near Infrared FTS Data
Cloud & Aerosol Sensor
Brightness

Pattern

Initial Guess

3D Distribution
Forward Calc.

Clear

AerosolCirrusFragmented

Full
Sink/Source Distr.

Analysis

PBL height
Opt.Thick.
Surface Reflect.
Analysis

Opt.thick.:2.0µm
Height:O2band

Inverse Model
Atom. Transp.

Analysis

Surface CO2 data

Emission Inv.
Ocean, Terrest.

GOSAT Observation Data

150
ウクライナ天然ガスパイプライン
コンプレッサーステーションからの漏洩量調査
CH4(上昇)CH4(下降)100

CH4 (ppm)

高度 (m)

3.0

500

1.8

2.0

2.2

CH4 (ppm)
カナダのグループは地上濃度をレーザーで測定。輸送・拡散モデルで漏洩量を推定。

ウクライナ（２０００）

2.4

30m
20m
10m
2m

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

-1000

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

距離 (m)

F total= ∫ C(h,x) v(h,x) dx dh= 11.8 l/s= 1020 m3 CH4/day= 730 kg CH4/day
T.Ishizaki et.al.

Flux measurement from
distributed sources
1.5kmh

各高度位置での濃度 Cx
風速 ｖ
各コンプレッサー建屋の位置

F total= ∫ C(h,x) v(h,x) dx dh= 79 tCH4/day

このコンプレッサーは新しく置き換えた

Demyanskoe でのCH4 濃度の時間変化

Relationship between CH4 and wind direction at Demyanskoe(hourly data in daytime)

１0 km

100 km*Rather high concentration is observed in particular wind direction
due probably to leakage from natural gas pipeline.

CH4 leak from Natural Gas PipelineDepletion

Passenger Aircraft Observation
Network

Number of flights per monthWater column distribution(Observed by AMSR-E, Aug,-Oct. in 2007)

kg/m2
From Shiomi

Spatial variability of
CO2 column abundance
Calculated CO2 column concentration in March(the correction is made for the surface altitude)

by S.Maksyutov