IERE TechnologyDiForesight

Disruptive Technologies in the 2030s
Executive Summary

October 2023
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This Technology Foresight 2023 is the third report of IERE's Technology Foresight activities. The
technical research for the report was commissioned to Frost & Sullivan and was finalized with input fromIERE's Technology Foresight Committee, member experts, and others.

IERE―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
IERE is an organization for exchanging electricity and energy-related cutting-edge technologies and R&D
information among its members from the electricity and energy supply industry, equipment provider businesses,
academic research, government, etc. This unique platform is of great help to executives, senior managers,engineers, and researchers who are responsible for R&D and solutions. It is a worldwide, non-profit organization,
established as “International Electric Research Exchange” in 1968.
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Contents
Technology Foresight Committee Members (for TF2023 Report) ……………………… ......................... 4
Synopsis……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
IERE Chair Message………………………………………………………………………………………. ............ 6Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………7Project Methodology…………………………………………………………………………………………… ...11IERE Members' Survey Results………………………………………………………………………………. .. 14
Top 20 Emerging Technologies………………………………………………………………………………… 16
Power Generation
1. Floating Renewables……………………………………………………………………………... . 17
2. Hydrogen Fueled Turbine……………………………………………………………………… . ...23
3. Perovskite Solar Cells…………………………………………………………………………… ...28
4. SMR & Safety Reactor…………………………………………………………………………… . 32
5. Bio-Synthetic Natural Gas (Bio-SNG) …………………………………………………………… 37
Transmission & Distribution
6. Grid Analytics………………………………………………………………………………………. 42
7. Grid-Forming Inverters………………………………………………………………………… .. ...47
8. Intelligent Universal Transformers…………………………………………………………… .. …52
9. Low-to-Medium Voltage DC Grid (DC Microgrid) …………………………………………… ...5710. Virtual Power Plant……………………………………………………………………………… ...62
Retail Customer
11. Emerging Heat Pump…………………………………………………………………………… .. .67
12. Integrating EV and Battery Energy Storage (V2X) …………………………………………… . 72
13. Sensor Fusion……………………………………………………………………………………… 77
Strategic Management
14. Carbon Capture Technologies (BECCS & DACS) …………………………………… . ……….81
15. CCU Derived E-Fuel………………………………………………………………………… .. …...86
16. Green Hydrogen…………………………………………………………………………………. ...91
17. Repurposing Existing Pipelines for CO2 and Hydrogen………………………………………. .96
Common Technologies
18. Prescriptive Analytics……………………………………………………………………… . ……101
19. Solid State Batteries………………………………………………………………………… …...105
Cutting Edge Technologies
20. Quantum Computing… .. ………………………………………………………………………….110
Way Forward.……………………………………………………………………………………………………. . 115
Afterword………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 116
Appendix
Appendix 1: Technology Readiness Level………………………………………… ......... ………...117
Appendix 2: Proposed 193 Technologies and Selected 100 Technologies...……… .........…….118
Appendix 3: Impact Scores of 100 Technologies.………………………………………......... …...124
Appendix 4: Map of 100 Technologies with their Impact Scores……...………………… ........... 128
Appendix 5: Presentation Slides on TF2023 from Frost & Sullivan(23rd IERE General Meeting and Singapore Forum) ……...………………… ....... 135
Note: One hundred File Cards are included in the Interim Report.

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Executive Summary
Project Methodology

BackgroundIn response to the increasing energy demands of a growing global population, global warming, and otherissues, technologies are changing rapidly. They affect the conventional utility business models andoperational and planning activities directly and indirectly. Some may even be disruptive. IERE has global andworld-class expertise in envisioning, researching, developing, implementing, monitoring, and assessing suchtechnologies. However, the needs, drivers, development, and adoption paces vary drastically amongst
jurisdictions.
IERE studied 20 Emerging Technologies and five Fringe Technologies in 2017 and compiled them into amembers-only deliverable as TF2017. Six years later, it is important to reflect on the results of these studies
and, from a current perspective, to predict specific technologies that could be realized and have a significant
social impact in the 2030s.
To this end, it is desirable not only to introduce the technologies in question but also to select and delve into
technologies that are currently in the demonstration stage and have a high potential for realization with a truly
disruptive impact from among those that are currently undergoing multiple projects.

Objectives• Evaluate the impact of various emerging and innovative technologies currently under discussion on theirpractical application in the electric utility industry in the 2030s.
• Identify technologies with high impact and high feasibility across a wide range of business fields in which
members are involved, a brief survey of 100 promising technologies that are not in the idea stage but inthe demonstration stage toward practical application should first be conducted, with six technology
categories (Figure 1) in mind.
• Provide an in-depth report on the Top 20 technologies selected from the list, by incorporating the opinionsof IERE members, with input from experts to provide a concrete picture of the technology by detailing whatdisruptive impact the technology will have within the industry, what incentives are available to promote its
realization, and what potential obstacles exist. This information will help define better business strategies.

7Figure 1 Selected six technology categories

Major Accomplishments
Figure 2 shows the work plan for the series of Technology Foresight activities. A survey of IERE members
was also conducted for Part 1.

Part 2by consultant

Part 1by consultant

Part 0ｂy consultant
Reassessmentof 25 tech.
byTF2017
Hits/Misses

Select and review
ca. 100 of emerging/rejuvenating existing
Technologies withLevel 3 in six areas• Power generation
Tech. 0, Tech.1, Tech2,・・・• Transmission and Distribution
Tech 16, Tech.17, Tech18,・・・• Retail-customers
Tech 33, Tech.34, Tech35,・・・• Strategic Management• Cutting-edge Technologies• Common Technologies

Report and Presentation•

IERE
Narrow down
to 20 tech.
by questionnaires
Tech. 5
Tech. 12Tech. 16
・・・

Comparisonand Reflection••••

Deep dive for feasibility
Establishment
for further technologies
Innovation and breakthrough
Change of external situation(Geopolitics)
Rejuvenating existing technologies
Economies over competing
existing technologies

Reflect opinions of experts
Tech. 5; High capability
Tech. 12; Strong impact
Tech. 16; Poor feasibility
・・・

Report and Presentation

Figure 2 Work plan for TF2023 activities(1) Assessment of past Technology Foresight (Part 0))• Reconfirmed and briefly summarized the current trends of technologies identified as Emerging
Technologies in past reports (TF2017, 2017).
• The current status of each technology was analyzed for each related item and compared and evaluatedwith the predicted results at the time. In addition, items that should have been selected at the time butwere overlooked were summarized (Hits/Misses) (see the Interim Report for details).
• These evaluation activities will not only enhance the reliability of deliverables but will also be useful in
optimizing current and future selection criteria and strengthening intellectual evaluation capabilities.
• This result was reflected in the technology selection in Parts 1 and 2, which were subsequently conducted.

8(2) Extraction of emerging technologies and creation of file cards (Part 1)• One hundred emerging/rejuvenated (re-emerging) technologies were selected (Appendix 2 and 3) andcompiled as a file card, classified into six technology categories.
• Technology selection was conducted at the level of some subdivision where specific projects were being
implemented, as illustrated in Figure 3, Level 3.
• In selecting the technologies, a long list of 193 technologies was compiled based on two surveys of IERE
members and advice from Technology Foresight Committee (TFC), from which 100 technologies werenarrowed down.
• File Cards containing the following items were created for 100 technologies (see the interim report forthe specific content of each card):− Outline− Technology Readiness Level (TRL)− Human Readiness Level (HRL)− Economics− Regional Aspect− Impact on Electric Power Business− Impact on Society− Future Outlook− Development Entities− Projects−
Other References

Level 1
RenewableenergyWind power

Level 2
Offshore wind power

Level 3

Projects

Floating type

Project A

Blade recycling

Project B,C・・・

Solar generation

Next Generation Solar
Cells

Organic film type

Energy storage

Secondarybatteries

Lithium-ion batteries

All solid typeHydrogenHydrogenproduction

Carbon free hydrogenproduction

Natural Hydrogen

New businessMeasures againstglobal warming

Biomass coal for
carbon negative
TF2017

TF2023Figure 3 Examples of target technology granularity level for technology selection(3) Narrowing down and deep dive into the top 20 technologies (Part 2)• Based on a survey of IERE members and opinions from TFC, 20 technologies were selected (Table 1)
and explored in depth from each of the six fields, and their feasibility was demonstrated.
• The items shown in each deep dive are as follows. In particular, a total of 40 views were received from
more than 20 experts, including IERE members, and these were also included in the report:
Description
How it Works?
Why is the Technology Needed?
Drivers & Restrains
Potential for Market Transition
Technology Readiness Level
Social Readiness Level
Application and Timeline
Feasibility Report
Key Development Entities and Their Major Projects

9Regional Potential
Overall Market Forecasts
Experts’ View
Further Reading• Incorporate the opinions of experts, including IERE members, especially with regard to a replacementfrom existing technology (infrastructure) and economic perspectives.
Table 1 Selected Top 20 Emerging Technologies
Business Fields

Selected Technologies

Power Generation

Floating Renewables
Hydrogen Fueled Turbine
Perovskite Solar Cells
SMR & Safety Reactor
Bio-Synthetic Natural Gas (Bio-SNG)

Transmission & Distribution

Grid Analytics
Grid-Forming InvertersIntelligent Universal Transformers
Low-to Medium Voltage DC Grid (DC Microgrid)
Virtual Power Plant

Retail Customer

Emerging Heat Pump
Integrating EV and Battery Energy Storage (V2X)
Sensor Fusion

Strategic Management

Carbon Capture Technologies (BECCS & DACS)CCU Derive E-FuelGreen Hydrogen
Repurposing Existing Pipelines for CO2 and Hydrogen

Common Technologies

Prescriptive Analytics
Solid State Batteries

Cutting Edge Technologies

Quantum Computing

Way Forward
The findings of this report underscore the importance of following action items for the power and utility
companies that are necessary in the wake of aggressive climate actions and emerging computingcapabilities. They are:
••

•

•

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Build the necessary capabilities to cater to an exponentially growing electricity demand
The demand is expected to grow due to industrial electrification, EV adoption, and increased
reliance on power-intensive computing machines such as AI and blockchain. AI-driven applications,such as ChatGPT, are predicted to consume 8–-21% of the global electricity supply by 2030, whileEVs may account for as much as 4% of global electricity demand by 2030.
Facilitate the integration of renewables and distributed power generation in the energy mix
Renewables and distributed power generation are expected to contribute towards trends such as
decarbonization and prosumerism.
Upgrade the energy infrastructure to make grids smarter, generate valuable data, andoperate remotely
These features will enable safer and more efficient grids and generate better insights fromconsumer and grid data.
Invest in technologies to help reduce carbon footprint
Invest in technologies that can help reduce carbon footprint to not only meet regulatory
requirements but also to gain goodwill from consumers and even generate positive returns.

Project Methodology

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, works in collaboration with clients to leverage visionary innovationthat addresses the global challenges and related growth opportunities that will make or break today’s market participants.
For more than 60 years, we have been developing growth strategies for the global 1000, emerging businesses, the public
sector, and the investment community. Is your organization prepared for the next profound wave of industry convergence,
disruptive technologies, increasing competitive intensity, Mega Trends, breakthrough best practices, changing customer
dynamics and emerging economies?
Rev. 1 Jan. 25, 2024
Oct. 16, 2023

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