DIPLOMACY
Vol.60, Mar. /Apr. 2020

Contents of Features

76

Egypt: Uncertain evaluation of former President Mubarak’s “legacy”

78

Libya: Division ensues with intervention from various countries

Emi Suzuki (Fukuoka Women’s University)
Amane Kobayashi (IEEJ)TREND2020
82

U.S. Presidential Election: Super Tuesday – What was behind Biden’s come back88

U.S. Presidential Election: Current situation of the Rust Belt

94

Japanese judiciary’s attempt at internationalizing: We must join the infrastructure development for100

Anti-extradition bill protest and the Hong Kong society: A mixture of solidarity and division

106

Strengthening of export control towards ROK and the free trade regime

Yoso Furumoto (Mainichi Shimbum)

Ryuichi Kanari (Asahi Shimbun)

international conflict resolution
Yoko Kamikawa (Diet Member, House of Representatives)

Akiko Kurata (Tokyo University of Foreign Studies)

Tomoyoshi Nakajima (ERINA)

FOCUS: Europe after BREXIT
112

Europe re-defined: The image of EU post-2020

120

Foreign policy strategy of “connectivity”: A mosaic-like approach towards Europe

126

Europe’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: EU in the era of Great Power competition

132

Putin seeks “establishment of national sovereignty”

EU was able to overcome various crises during the decade of 2010. However, expansion of populism and friction between
U.S. and Europe is creating disharmony between Germany and France – two driving forces for European integration. How
will EU develop during the decade of 2020?
Ken Endo (Hokkaido University)
A liberal international order that post-war Japan has relied on is facing a challenge. What can Japan and Europe, two forcesthat share similar values, can do to stand up to this challenge? The Director-General of the European Affairs Bureau outlines
this strategy.
Yasushi Masaki (Director-General, European Affairs Bureau, MOFA)
Europe’s grand strategy is being tested in an era of Great Power competition with the U.S., Russia, China in mind and facing
grave challenges such as Middle East and immigration. What is the “connectivity strategy” of EU? What about the possibilities
for collaboration between non-EU countries like Japan?
Michito Tsuruoka (Keio University)
Russia’s Presidential election is coming up in 2024. What were the intentions behind President Putin’s sudden announcement on changing the Prime Minister and revising the Constitution?
Akiyoshi Komaki (Asahi Shimbun)

Feature:

Can Middle East avoid war?
Emergency Special Feature: Novel coronavirus shock

6

Cover story interview: Grand challenges posed to humanity by a viral disease
Shigeru Omi (Vice Chair, Novel Coronavirus Expert Meeting at the PMO)

12

Postponement of President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Japan: An opportunity for redefining basic

18

Economic impact of the spread of China’s novel coronavirus

24

From escalation to “an awkward stability”

32

Roundtable: Vulnerabilities of Arabic states increases “Iran threat”
International order in the Middle East is coming at a crossroads due to the escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict. Three experts
discuss topics such as the Middle East Strategy of the U.S., future of Iranian economy, and challenges of Arabic statesfrom a bird’s-eye view.
Koichiro Tanaka (Keio University) Kunihiko Miyake (CIGS) Takuya Murakami (Middle East Institute of Japan)

50“Russian” approach to the Middle East

56

Iraq is being played: Developments after the Iraq War and its uneasy relationship with Iran
Iraq’s national power has stagnated due to the post-Iraq War policy of “distributing posts among religious and ethnic groups”
bringing about corruption. Following the battle with IS, the momentum for political reform has been suppressed after the death ofSoleimani by U.S. forces, which has raised the risks of internal dissatisfaction exploding.
Keiko Sakai (Chiba University)

62

Q&A: Middle East seen from Japan; Japan seen from the Middle East

68

principles of Japan-China relationship
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Japan has been postponed due to the spread of novel coronavirus. We should makeuse of this extra time to ponder about how Japan and China should cooperate within the context of Northeast Asia.
Akio Takahara (University of Tokyo)

Novel coronavirus is spreading at a much greater speed when compared to SARS in 2002. Production activities have halted,
which has dramatically slowed Chinese economy and impacted world supply chains. This article analyzes the seriousness ofthese impacts through economic indicators.
Naoto Saito (Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd.)How did the Middle East reach “stability” after heightened tensions between U.S. and Iran last year, followed by a proxy war anda looming crisis of a direct war between the two countries this January? Does “order” currently exist there? A unique Middle East
analysis of 2020 from an authors’ unique point of view.
Satoshi Ikeuchi (University of Tokyo)

Why does Russia support and collaborate with the Assad regime? Russia has created a unique presence in the Middle East
through a flexible combination of a behavioral principle of “survival strategy” and a limited use of military force.
Hiroshi Yamazoe (NIDS)

From energy to culture, connections between Japan and Middle East have been diversifying. This article examines the current
situation.
Shuji Hosaka (JIME-IEE Japan)
Report from the Middle East :Afghanistan: No clear road towards peace despite U.S.-Taliban peace deal
Masato Toriya (Sophia University)

72

Israel: Third election in a year and an unstable coalition government

74

Qatar: Independent diplomacy is again seen due to the recovery of its national power

Chie Ezaki (National Defense Academy)
Koji Horinuki (IEEJ)